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CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE

(Back from Worldcon, where I didn't win a Hugo, and Eurocon, where I was awarded the ESFS Hall of Fame award for Best Author, 2019. Whee!)

So I guess I don't need to give a detailed run-down of political events while I was travelling, save to say that we're now getting into 1642 territory constitutionally, with the unelected Prime Minister declaring his intention of asking the unelected monarch to shut down parliament so that he can force through an unpopular policy that everybody was assured was not a possible outcome of a referendum that was only upheld by the courts because it was non-binding (so the foreign interference and straight-up vote rigging couldn't be held a violation of election law). He's also proposing to pack the House of Lords with unelected pro-Brexit members just in case the HoL tries to to throw a spanner in the works.

Reminder: the legal wellspring of British authority is the crown-in-parliament (i.e. the powers of the monarch, as vested in parliament after the king picked a fight with that body and lost, comprehensively). This is an end-run around British sovereignty. It's a bit like, say, a US President packing the supreme court and then issuing an executive order suspending the 14th amendment (with a manufactured court rubber stamp): procedurally suspect and ethically outrageous. BoJo is gaming the British Constitution on a scale never seen before; if he's allowed to get away with this then, never mind Brexit (and a no-deal Brexit would be very, very bad in its own right), it means the end of British constitutional governance and a shift towards rule by executive decree implemented via the Civil Contingencies Act and/or Henry VIII Orders. In other words, a dictatorship.

Oh, and if the Queen gives Boris his rubber-stamp prorogation, it's quite possible that Brexit will not only take down the British economy, the British constitution, and the Conservative Party: it could well take down the monarchy as well. The Queen is personally popular, but she's in a horrible cleft stick: if she prorogues Parliament she pisses off the remainers (over half the population) and personally gets some of the blame for a no-deal Brexit. If she refuses to prorogue Parliament without a bulletproof legal precedent then she acts unconstitutionally and takes a fire-axe to the relationship between Parliament and Monarch ... and she pisses off a not-much-smaller segment of the population. The Queen is 92. Being put on the spot like this can't possibly not be incredibly stressful for her: there's no good solution, unless I've overlooked her having some magic constitutional power to, say, require the PM to prove that he has the confidence of parliament before he prorogues that chamber. The whole point of the post-1688/1832/1912 British Constitutional system is to put the theoretically-absolute powers of a once-absolute monarchy in a lead-lined safe at the bottom of a very deep mine shaft. So expecting the Queen to ride to the rescue is ... excessively optimistic.

To add to the fun and games, the political advisor at Number 10 who has the PM's ear is Dominic Cummings, who is noted for being both an Accelerationist and a closet singularitarian (he keeps the latter out of the public eye but it's on his blog). He can thus best be approximated to an ultra-capitalist rapture-of-the-nerds embracing Trotskyite, merrily intent on pouring gasoline on the bonfire of British constitutional traditions.

Opposition--both internal, within the Conservative party, and external, split between the minority parties--is divided. I'm seeing tweets by Labour MPs proposing that if parliament is prorogued they will conduct a sit in and establish a People's Parliament. (I was not exaggerating when I invoked the spectre of 1642.) But the situation is not helped by the new and rather right-wing leader of the Liberal Democrats, Jo Swinston, refusing to vote with a Corbyn-led national unity coalition. Or by Labour's perpetual on-going snit with the SNP (Scottish Labour has an unofficial policy of "whatever the SNP are for, we're against", because the SNP are their deadly rival for the peculiarly Scottish niche of "left wing party of government"; this has spilled over into Labour/SNP relations in Westminster). In theory there is an absolute majority in Parliament opposed to a no-deal Brexit, or indeed almost any form of Brexit. In practice, they seem to be more intent on forming a circular firing squad.

Sterling, needless to say, is down 1% this morning, trading at $1.20 to the pound, and the London stock exchange is tanking. Remember that this is nominally a conservative government, the party of business ... except Boris Johnson when asked about the effects of Brexit declared, "fuck business": he's actually got the Financial Times, the Confederation of British Industry, the Institute of Directors, and the Trade Union Congress lined up against him (which is the British equivalent of sheep and wolves holding hands in solidarity).

Folks, I have no idea what happens next. Lewis Goodall (a Sky News political commentator) noted on twitter that Johnson's strategy seems to be:

  • Get through first 2 weeks of Parliament in September (by prorogation)

  • Survive Party Conference season

  • Unveil a new brexit deal at council on 17th October

  • Survive the Queen's Speech because if they don't there'll be no deal by default

  • Ram the new deal through a terrified parliament in the days before October 31st

But it's not obvious that there's any scope for such a new deal to happen. Ireland will veto any arrangement that leaves out the Northern Irish backstop, and the EU 26 have their back. The ERG will veto any deal that includes the backstop. The EU negotiators have already declared that there's no more room for negotiation; they're fed up with the UK's perfidious nonsense and they spend three years negotiating with May in good faith: take it or leave it.

This isn't new. It was broadly the shape of affairs while Theresa May was in charge. What's new is a Prime Minister who is ruthless and willing to destroy the constitution, the monarchy, and the economy to get his own way--and who is listening to the accelerationists.

That's profoundly frightening.

UPDATE: They did it:

(via twitter)

ALSO:

Ruth Davidson resigns as Scottish conservative leader (actual resignation reported on the BBC in past 15 minutes; she's strongly opposed to a no deal Brexit and there's personal animosity with BoJo)

Legal move filed in Court of Sessions in Edinburgh to have Prorogation of Parliament ruled illegal (it's a cross-party move)

List of protests in cities around the UK

(I can't keep up; this is all news that's broken in the last couple of hours.)

2463 Comments

1:

PS: this profoundly depressing shit-fest, in combination with the ongoing terminal decline of my only remaining parent (now on terminal care) has done a number on my ability to work. It's also done a number on my ability to blog about anything remotely creative. Sorry, folks, normal service will be resumed after the catastrophe.

2:

Frak. Thank you for this precis from the other side of the pond.

3:

I don't understand it, how this is happening...

(Do you remember when we believed in the existence of a deep state? Innocent days. Now if we want to impose order on events, we posit it is chaos loving hedge fundies, making huge profits regardless of consequence, deliberately playing with structural instabilities in Western democracies. It still doesn't make sense to me.)

I guess that on an individual level, we now seriously have to have contingency plans to leave the UK, middle term --- if we are really in coup territory. And just stockpile in preparation for the no deal riots in October for short term (like 1/4 of the country...)

4:

This is pretty fucking scary.

5:

You put my sentiment and frustration into words like only an experienced and talented writer such as yourself can.

6:

Looks like anyone who favoured the Derp State view of politics can take a gold star...

7:

This makes the (actually horrible) current political situation in Italy seem all rainbows and sunshine in comparison...

8:

Relax: the no-deal riots won't happen until mid-November, assuming the supply chains feeding our supermarkets get clogged up by border checks and a lack of permits/visas for the trucks that keep us fed (remember 50% of our food is imported, mainly from or through the EU).

9:

Forget any "new deal" strategy suggestions; Bojo & Co want a no deal. That gives them the greatest financial return ("disaster capitalism"). Everything is aimed at getting over the line of falling out of the EU, which happens automatically if nothing else is agreed.

Plus for the more ambitious the ensuing disaster following a no deal Brexit would allow them to use the powers in the Brexit Acts & Civil Contingencies Act to rule by decree indefinitely á la Northern Ireland (where such "temporary" arrangements lasted 49 years). Not saying that definitely is their plan, but...

10:

Just as we hit the worst constitutional crisis in nearly four centuries (alarmist view), or two centuries (moderate view) we get our very own Silvio Berlusconi, egged on by the lunatic fringe.

11:

As I am not going to get anything constructive done in the near future (replay of recent past), due to this and the recent diagnosis of my eldest surviving family member with a particularly unpleasant and aggressive form of dementia (which means that for all practical purposes, I am now the family matriarch: https://www.elephantsforever.co.za/matriarch-elephant.html) you will find me in the ancestral wine-cellar, exercising my matriarchal rights.

OK, there's a bottle of wine in the fridge, and I suspect it will be insufficient.

12:

Stupid question, but what exactly is the speakers role here ?

I he only the impartial referee keeping the play inside the white lines, or is there actually substance to the "free access to Her Majesty whenever occasion shall require." bit, allowing him to plead against Boris' coup ?

Second, what are the chances Lizzie told Boris at the job interview: "Make it stop, I dont care how you do it, just make it stop." ?

13:

Off-topic: it makes me sad that we can keep things out of the public eye by putting them on our blogs.

14:

2 points, hooefully without typos.

1) from a distance it looks like petty dictatorship behaviour. Very ugly potential.

2) i hope London Bridge doesn't fall down anytime soon.

15:

(2) in the sense of the codeword for the Queen dying, yes?

I'm very afraid that this situation is extremely stressful for a 92 year old.

If she was in her forties or even her sixties she might very well give Boris a stern talking-to.

But the Diana Spencer affair scared the shit out of her—for a while the fracas around her death looked like a potential monarchy-ending event—and she's instinctively cautious. Her #1 priority since before she took the throne is to maintain continuity for the monarchy; don't underestimate the impact of her uncle's abdication crisis. So she's probably going to sit tight and do whatever the Privy Council advise her to, with a tie-breaker side-order of King Log.

The stress might do for her, in which case we get BoJo clowing around and a royal succession crisis on top (the first succession since 1952). Remember, nobody now in politics remembers her coronation save as a childhood memory; she is, per wikipedia, "the longest-lived and longest-reigning British monarch as well as the world's longest-serving female head of state, oldest living monarch, longest-reigning current monarch, and the oldest and longest-serving current head of state." Yes, there's a well-defined line of succession. But Charles isn't anything like as popular as his mum, and he'd be dumped head-first and bloody into the shark pool of a big-ass constitutional crisis.

16:

If the collateral damage for revoking article 50 is unrecoverable crisis for the monarchy, I for one would be not unhappy. Not likely, sadly, even in my dreams.

(PS, yes riots in November, but stockpile in October. And expect shortages from mid October. I presume the supermarkets will be stocking as if xmas happens Nov 1, in terms of meeting temporarily high demands. If they don't.. more tsures. Oy.)

17:

In practice, they seem to be more intent on forming a circular firing squad. See also Nojay's comments in this blog ...

a Prime Minister who is ruthless and willing to destroy the constitution, the monarchy, and the economy Terrifying, isn't it?

Alternatively, Brenda is 92 - she has NOTHING TO LOSE by kicking BOZO's arse, ahrd - PROVIDED she can get the backing of one person - Mr Speaker. Watch Mr Speaker - he has amazing power at this point - maybe.

Oh yes obligatory reposting of a link from earlier: Here

@ 8 ONE SLIGHT PROBLEM: Regulatory permits for transpoirtation OF ANY SORT - not just "external" flights but internal ones like BUS ROUTES & Railway Operating Companies & ......

@ 10 No, we are in 1642-land, you are correct.

18:

I'm not convinced of that. While (allegedly) around 1/4 of the population is currently stockpiling, that leaves a lot of people who aren't but who might panic buy in the last couple of days before a crash exit. So while it's possible that we'd get a couple of weeks' quiet between Stupidity Day and the start of the food riots, there could also be a sudden shortage of basic cheap foodstuffs the week before exit. That moves the large chunk of the UK population who are already in food poverty (thanks to Tory policies like austerity, benefit cuts, etc) from "unreasonably, and unnecessarily, hungry" to "unable to get food at all". At which point, all bets are off, and the rioting, rationing, martial law, etc, can kick off at any point.

I'd say rioting is very unlikely more than a week or so before Stupidity Day (though not impossible, because crowd behaviour can get into nasty feedback loops), but entirely plausible at any point from then on.

19:

Why would you wait until October to stockpile? Stockpile now, because prices are only going to rise, and supplies will only run shorter, as time goes on.

Also, the more people stockpile earlier, the lower the stress - both on the system and on those people who are unable to stockpile themselves - when the crisis arrives.

But seriously, UK residents: If you have money and space, please stockpile for the crisis now, so that those who can't - the disabled, the unemployed, people in care homes, etc - have the best chance we can give them.

20:

Re Charlie 8 and 15:

Under better circumstances the U.S. and Canada would happily ride to the rescue to resolve any food supply issues, but our own political messes and even greater recent weather+climate catastrophes are likely to render that option impossible or ineffective.

Meanwhile, it's been my hope for a long time that Charles will reign for a matter of days, or be aided by some constitutional sleight of hand to avoid accession altogether, so that Wills falls next in line for all intents and purposes.

But first, the present garbage fire must be put out...

21:

I was actually thinking more in the opposite direction, that the queen feels this has gone on for so long that the nuances of how it ends are far less important than that it ends soon.

Take a look at it from her side of the board:

The only thing Parliament can do which is guaranteed brings finality, is to approve May's deal.

But Parliament is not going to do that, they voted NO on that 3 times already, and by the way that "finality" would keep UK in EU for another couple of years, pissing of the least civilized half of the population to the point of rioting.

Parliament cancelling brexit ?

No chance until a super-majority says so in a referendum or general election.

No signs of anything like that on the horizon.

So all Parliament can do at this point, is to delay things, subject to EU's not unlimited patience.

There is no indication that a general election would bring an improvement, quite the contrary, the new Parliament might be even more dysfunctional than this one, if brexit was still unresolved when people vote.

So seen from the chair of somebody who has been head-master since 1952, it might be better to simply get on with it, and pick up the pieces afterwards, land where they may.

Also dont forget that her formative years where a very romantic and privileged view of the heroic rebuilding after second world war: Suffering surely builds Character!

Maybe the new shared experience of lack of pretty much everything will bring back the jolly mood from The Good Old Days ? Might even give Charles a head-start if you think about it ?

Finally, but maybe most importantly: She has seen all statesmen in the last half century, and it does not appear that she suffers fools gladly.

What better way for her to abridge the tenure of Boris the Clown, than to hand him all the rope he asks for ?

22:

so that those who can't - the disabled, the unemployed, people in care homes, etc - have the best chance we can give them.

Ouch. That is a genuinely convincing argument. Any advice on how to store 20kg bags of Basmati rice, and ditto for pulses?

23:

I suppose one could hope that Charles might be able to play on the fact that nobody likes him very much to get away with shitting in Boris's hairstyle and then taking all the flak personally, letting William take over on the basis that people do like him and he wasn't king so he didn't do it. Especially as he's no spring chicken himself and I don't think he really wants to be king much anyway. Trouble is, he would need to be canny about it but he really is a bit of a div.

24:

Thank you very much for this thumbnail sketch of our puppet-master:

"To add to the fun and games, the political advisor at Number 10 who has the PM's ear is Dominic Cummings, who is noted for being both an Accelerationist and a closet singularitarian (he keeps the latter out of the public eye but it's on his blog). He can thus best be approximated to an ultra-capitalist rapture-of-the-nerds embracing Trotskyite, merrily intent on pouring gasoline on the bonfire of British constitutional traditions."

That he was a frustrated technologist was all too obvious. That he's a fire starter with no subsequent plan for the country was also fairly obvious. I had wondered whether his Russian Sojourn (involving starting an airline that was the close down by the KGB after just one flight) might explain something.

But no, just bog-standard libertarian raptor-of-the-nerds stuff.

Do we yet know where he intends to ride out the shit storm of his own creation? Because I feel a personal visit might be appropriate at some stage where I can forcibly press my point.

25:

"In 1990 came the Trafalgar Square poll tax riots. For Class War, those who took part in the violence were working class heroes. For the enemy is the ruling class, anyone with enough money or property not to need to work. The Class War paper encourages attacks on rich people who move into traditional working class areas." - Oi Polloi, Guilty

"Over the last few days, riots have caused significant damage to parts of London, to shop-fronts, homes and cars. On the left, we hear the ever-present cry that poverty has caused this. On the right, that gangsters and anti-social elements are taking advantage of tragedy. Both are true. The looting and riots seen over the past number of days are a complex phenomenon and contain many currents." - Solfed, 2011 http://solfed.org.uk/?q=north-london-solfeds-response-to-the-london-riots

I do not remember the Poll Tax Riots. But I do remember the riots in 2011 in the UK, though I was elsewhere. The violence of the rioters was condemned, that of the police, praised. In Ukraine [before the fall of the Russian-leaning government], the Western media praised the rioters, and condemned the government.

I am lead to believe, partly from reading this blog, that police numbers in the UK are now even less than they were in 2011. Might be a good idea for people to not just stockpile food and medicine, but also boards, nails and hammers. Also balaclavas, so that when you are out throwing bricks through brick windows, you are less likely to be identified.

Any riots will have various causes. No doubt there will be opportunists out to make a quick buck from stealing a TV. But, if the government wanted law and order, they would have funded schools, libraries, social services, and those other institutions that give people skills and safety nets. They would have made proper preparation for an orderly "Brexit". Instead, my only conclusion, is that the government (or at least a sufficient number of people within), both the parliament and the civil service, wants riots.

26:

Chris,

One thing worth considering is that martial law is not an option these days. Quite simply there are no longer enough troops and police combined to do anything other than defend themselves. This is the upshot of the Government's own assessments.

So, we'll have to call in UN Peace Keepers. I wonder if Trump would contribute?

27:

Storage of rice and pulses: you want three things: dry, vermin-proof, and liftable. Any sort of sealable plastic or metal containers are good, wooden ones are crap, and plastic bags are nearly useless because mice and rats don't consider them a barrier at all.

Remember to add onions, cabbages, and cooking oil; they all store well and add flavor and nutrients.

How optimistic is my theory that BoJo and company want a hard Brexit and don't want to be governing immediately afterwards, since that government is going to be associated with months to years of disruption?

28:

if the government wanted law and order, they would have funded schools, libraries, social services, and those other institutions that give people skills and safety nets. They would have made proper preparation for an orderly "Brexit".

Nailed it in one.

This is increasingly looking like the on-ramp to an authoritarian one-party state run by an extreme right-wing faction spanning the right of the Conservative party to the Brexit party (similar to Hungary): think Mussolini's Italy, without the uniforms.

29:

Some initial thoughts:

Could the Queen Just Say NO!? Does she have to prorogue parliament just because BoZo requested it? Could she tell BoZo, "You broke it, you own it ... You fix it."

What happens if the Queen does say no?

About that plan to pack the House of Lords ... did you see the photo of BoZo & the beer magnet. Who'd have believed there was someone with hair fucked up even worse than Trump & BoZo ... you know, I think I might be on to something here ... it's a bad hair conspiracy.

Isn't this pretty much what Hitler did after Hindenburg appointed him chancellor of Germany? Might want to keep the Westminster fire department on high alert.

PS: Sorry about your mom.

30:

Cool, dark, dry places, if at all possible. Remember to get at least a couple of days worth of bottled water, too, in case of supply interruptions. (Or suitable purification gear, if you live close enough to a river, large pond, etc.)

31:

So, we'll have to call in UN Peace Keepers. I wonder if Trump would contribute?

The scariest suggestion I heard mooted (at the worldcon in Dublin, by a commentator who follows this blog but remains quiet and who is generally on the nail) is that HMG could farm the wet work out to Xe/Blackwater … who are immune from prosecution by non-US authorities (according to the Trump regime's courts).

So, heavily armed US mercenaries with a track record of brutality in Iraq and Afghanistan.

32:

The escape route (FCVO) for the Queen, if not necessarily the rest of us, would be a vote of no confidence in Parliament. If Boris survives said vote then clearly he has the confidence of the house and should be allowed his prorogation, if he doesn't then clearly he doesn't and therefore shouldn't?

33:

I think this is all being a little oversold. Firstly I'll say choosing to prorogue right now is obviously a tactical choice by the government (and in part a response to the Church House declaration yesterday). However it is not a "coup" nor in any way unconstitutional and it doesn't do anything to prevent Parliament from stopping a No Deal Brexit.

Essentially at this point MPs have four routes to stop a No Deal Brexit:

  • Vote of No Confidence followed by putting a new "Government of National Unity" together with a new PM who will either ask for a further extension or cancel withdrawal
  • Pass legislation to cancel the UK's Article 50 notice and remain in the EU
  • Pass legislation to compel the PM to ask for an extension (as it did in the spring)
  • Pass either the existing deal or any changed deal that the government comes up with
  • There is enough parliamentary time for any of these to happen and at this point either the anti-No Dealers have the numbers or they don't.

    34:

    What happens if the Queen does say no?

    She drops a nuke on the British Constitution. Whee! It's a one-time power the crown theoretically has—she or her heirs gets to use it once, then whackiness ensues (and not in a good way).

    (It'd also piss off the Canadians something rotten, because prorogation has a History there) and violate precedent (the Governor-General is a proxy for the Queen as head-of-state in Canada: what a GG does is what the Queen would do if she was present).

    I'd like to see the Queen demand that Johnson demonstrate that his government has the confidence of the House (by holding a vote of confidence in lieu of a general election) to prove he has the authority before he blows the walls down, but I fear even that is an ask too far.

    35:

    True dat. I should probably have said "misguided and monumentally stupid (but what else is new, with quitlings?) attempts to impose martial law despite not having more than about 1/10th the number of enforcers required".

    I do occasionally worry about a post-coup government putting out a call for volunteers to enforce curfews, etc, but - as demonstrated by turnout for their marches - the hardline leavers just don't have the boots on the ground for that.

    36:

    THEY DID IT.

    (via twitter)

    37:

    Nope. The endgame here is when you get Russian peacekeepers.

    38:

    Null-I @ 3: I don't understand it, how this is happening...

    What's to understand? The greed-heads no longer have any constraints on their depredations. Himmler gets his suits tailored on Savile Row & works as a hedge fund manager.

    39:

    I'm not seeing the graphic at number 35.

    40:

    It's a PNG. TLDR is, they prorogued parliament between the 9th and 12th of September until October 14th. Order by Her Majesty in Council (i.e. the Queen didn't blink).

    41:

    --- Also balaclavas, so that when you are out throwing bricks through bank [not brick] windows, you are less likely to be identified.

    Anyway, as to how to store food stuffs, and what food stuffs to store, there is a wealth of information out there on the general Web. Not just from preppers, but also from actual government sources. I recently found a Queensland government publication which seemed rather sensible, for dealing with cyclones. For example, what sorts of food that would require refrigeration and cooking you might store.

    Remember also, not just food, but also anything you use on a regular basis that might not come through for a few weeks or months if the trucks stop. Toilet paper. Matches. Pens and pencils. Batteries. Baby necessities.
    Why not buy a solar powered charger for your mobile communications device/pocket computing device today?

    How to start? You start by buying slightly more every time you go shopping. If you like baked beans, buy an extra couple of cans every time you shop. If you eat oats, buy another packet every other time you go to the supermarket. Powdered milk goes a long way. Lentils are miracles; especially split-red ones that require little cooking.

    42:

    Remember when failing upwards was a Dilbert joke?

    Now we've got blonde failures leading countries on both sides of the Atlantic. Even though they're both demonstrating the Peter Principle in spades, they want to ascend to dictator level, because failing at constitutional governance (with the checks and balances training wheels on) means that they should get rid of all checks and balances...

    43:

    I'd also point out, on general principles (and talking to myself), that it's a good time to learn how to can produce and store your own. After all, it's harvest season, so hit the markets and store your own for what looks like a fairly rough winter.

    Don't depend on the markets to have it all canned up for you: do it yourself and avoid the botulism.

    44:

    Charlie,

    That suggestion is in line with my senior civil service contacts.

    45:

    Ah. Mr Shipley, the unrepentant peddler of Brexit propaganda (“BREXIT: The Movie”) is back. Was wondering when he would reappear to smear his opinion around again. Strange that he’s peddling the narrative of “We should all just calm down and let this run its course”. I wonder where his particular bolt hole is?

    46:

    PNG shouldn't be a problem. I was eventually able to use the developer tools on my browser to open the link in a new tab and I saw the image, but I really had to dig. I think your link is subtly borked, but I couldn't figure out how.

    For anyone else who can't see it, here's the same link using an 'href' instead of an 'img src.'

    47:

    The USA doesn't do UN peacekeeping duties. US military and police are very good at killing people and smashing stuff, not so good at keeping the peace so the UN doesn't want them fucking around in problematic areas like the Green Line in Cyprus.

    As of July 2019 the USA has 34 people, a mixture of police and military officers deployed in some of the fourteen current UN peacekeeping missions around the world. The top contributor to UN peacekeeping is Ethiopia with a bit over 7000 people deployed. The UK has 570 people doing UK peacekeeping duties.

    48:
    1. Vote of No Confidence followed by putting a new "Government of National Unity" together with a new PM who will either ask for a further extension or cancel withdrawal 2. Pass legislation to cancel the UK's Article 50 notice and remain in the EU 3. Pass legislation to compel the PM to ask for an extension (as it did in the spring) 4. Pass either the existing deal or any changed deal that the government comes up with

    1: and said extension would be granted on what grounds?

    3: see 1.

    4: you think the Johnsonites can come up with a deal acceptable to the EU?

    2: yeah, that might do it.

    TL;DR: The EU exists, has opinions.

    49:

    It's because there's an ampersand in the URL which means the browser may or may not think the URL ends in "format=pngname=small" and that in turn may or may not matter.

    FWIW my browser does think that, it doesn't matter, but I still see only half the image because it is too wide. Adding the CSS rule ".comment-content img { max-width: 100%; height: auto; }" fixes it.

    50:

    I think Her Majesty, has answered my previous questions, by not even hesitating for a single day and by not listening to a single one of the many who have asked for an audience to advice her on the subject.

    51:

    1 & 3: Agreed - would be difficult. I think unless it was to arrange time to pass the WA or for a referendum to cancel Brexit they'd be very unlikely to say yes.

    4: I think it's incredibly unlikely. They could theoretically vote for the existing WA though once parliament comes back as it will be a new session

    The EU has made it clear that there are a very limited set of circumstances under which they'd extend again so yes, I think those are harder pathways. The point is that an extra few days of parliament sitting is not going to make the difference here - either the anti-No Deal / remain coalition in parliament has the numbers for action or they don't.

    52:

    Her Majesty does what her Prime Minister tells her. That reality was explained to her predecessor, Charles 1 back in 1641 with the edge of an axe and she won't go against that particular part of Britain's unwritten Constitution.

    53:

    That's...not the argument I'm making. I'm saying that this prorogation doesn't actually do anything to make No Deal more or less likely. That choice resides (as it always has) with the MPs in Parliament. They have the time to do something or not and the choice remains theirs.

    54:

    Is talking of people going hungry due to food shortages not something of an overreaction?

    Here in Dublin I think if we saw our next door neighbors in real need of basic food/medicine there would be no lack of effort or money to make sure that supplies were delivered. Which isn't to say that there will be a shortage of fine wines or more exotic foodstuff. But there will be bread and milk and meat and veg and airdrops of medicines if required.

    Now granted if there is a general collapse of law and order in the UK it may not be possible to get that food where it is needed in all cases but is that a real possibility?

    Not throwing stones here, just honestly curious about how far you think things might go? While the government of the UK may be cracked and the UK may not be a well thought of nation by a lot of the EU at the moment, that's not to say that the people of the UK don't still have plenty of friends/fellow humans who will try to help out where they can.

    55:

    So Parliament is prorogued. ("Pro-rogue" - get it?)

    But what happens if a majority of Parliament rents a big hall, has a meeting, and passes a vote of no-confidence? Or if a majority of Parliament sends official letters to the Queen expressing that they have no confidence in her PM? Is this a possible way forward?

    56:

    Mr. Stross, thank you for putting in the time to explain this to those of us who are un-educated in the ways of the Tin Isles.

    57:

    1) Are you taking stock of your own food & med stores?

    2) Might Prince Charles, in a succession, step aside for his son? (The people, absent Lizzie, desiring a young popular leader etc.)

    58:

    Well, I've seen a suggestion elsewhere that this will allow BoZo to put Maybot's "deal" before the House of Oathbreakers for a 4th time, but not allow them time to bring a formal motion of No Confidence.

    Nicola, it's time to "woman up", and declare UDI!

    59:

    That strikes me as the kind of act which would be really bad for the UK's constitutional fabric - competing bodies claiming to be the legitimate legislature generally does lead to serious civil strife and in this situation we would presumably have some subsection of MPs claiming to be parliament sitting despite that not being the legal or constitutional position.

    There are plenty of constitutional methods available here - either seizing the order paper to enact emergency legislation to cancel Brexit or plead for an extension, or a Vote of No Confidence followed by a new government (which also wouldn't be a coup or constitutional outrage, despite it being called that by the madder end of the Leave / Brexit Party movement).

    60:

    The top contributor to UN peacekeeping is Ethiopia

    Mm-hmm.

    Ethiopian army peacekeepers will go down really well with the Gammon ("I voted for Brexit to get rid of them foreigners").

    61:

    [ Drive-by deleted by moderator -- CS ]

    62:

    That strikes me as the kind of act which would be really bad for the UK's constitutional fabric

    You say that like you think they'd be the ones who started it?

    Johnson is responsible, solely responsible, for everything that happens from now on, on his watch. If he ignores or evades parliament (by prorogation), that's on him.

    Remember, he was elected by 0.2% of the population. There's no general election mandate behind him.

    Yes, they need to run through the constitutionally valid methods first, but this looks very much like an authoritarian PM trying to game the system by exploiting loopholes—a dishonest stance rather than a legitimate one. Which in turn legitimizes any attempts to stop him.

    63:

    The parliament shows every sign of not going quietly. I can imagine there's a possibility that both Parliament and Borris Johnson claim to the EU that THEY are the ones with the true right to govern, each claiming contradictory intentions for Brexit. meaning the EU will either need to decide between them or say, "Figure out who runs the country & get back to us"

    64:

    I think it would be an unnecessary leap outside of the law and constitution when the opposition to the government have plenty of scope (as per Cooper-Letwin) to bring and pass legislation to block No Deal. Obviously the timing and length of this prorogation is convenient for the government and makes things harder for the opposition.

    Obviously if the government started going outside of the law / constitution then all bets are off and a "pop-up parliament" becomes a reasonable response.

    E.g. if Boris was seeking to not re-open parliament at all next week and keep it closed until 31st October then that would be pretty coup-like and I think would justify very much stronger and different responses (and despite being pretty publicly keen on Brexit I'd be cheering on those opposing the government in that siutation).

    The current situation just doesn't reach that test in my view and our MPs remain able to stop No Deal Brexit if they get their acts together and vote accordingly. Bercow will clearly make time available and Corbyn has said today he will be bringing legislation forward when parliament reconvenes next week.

    If they can't win these votes in Parliament though I'm not sure where the Remain / anti No-Deal movement go.

    65:

    What power, if any, does the EU have to say, "No, you're not leaving the EU while your government is divided against itself and neither side has an accepted legal right to govern & make decisions like this."

    66:

    Not just that. Thatcher and Blair paved the way by giving the Chief Shit, sorry, Home Secretary powers to give such people the powers of the police, as well as allow them to use military weapons. Add that to the CCA and any other such law that is still extant, and ....

    I am very concerned about the results of the election that will happen almost immediately after the No Deal. If Bozo gets a majority, he will implement the Cummings economic, social, ecological and political plan and sign us up to permanent and total subserviency to the USA. If he doesn't, Corbyn will get the blame for the catastrophe, and the next extremist right-wing government will do that.

    67:

    More like: "See last line of Article 50. KTHXBI!"

    68:

    I don't think any? Article 7 of the Treaty allows for suspending and removing rights etc but it's a slow process and if you look at the speed with which the EU are reacting to Poland and Hungary it seems unlikely they'd do anything before 31st October. Plus it would probably massively boost support for leaving the EU and likely hand us over to a Farage premiership which I think we all agree would be very bad.

    69:

    That wouldn't help a lot, but thanks for the offer. The problem is that the UK's food supplies are now critically dependent on the dominating supermarkets' "Just In Time" processes. I doubt that we will run out of food in an absolute sense, but we can expect increased malnutrition and some people facing complete starvation.

    70:

    Nojay,

    I was being a bit facetious -- though I could imagine a call from our ministers to Trump or Blackwater in lieu of a call to the UN.

    71:

    First the EU has to decide whether there's more value in the UK staying than in letting the UK be the poster-child for what happens when you leave the EU. I suspect more the latter than the former at this point.

    72:

    I doubt that you are right. She almost certainly had foreseen this and taken advice before it happened.

    To Troutwaxer (#55): I, too, have wondered about the latter. It isn't impossible, and a younger monarch would certainly use it to choose another PM - probably Ken Clarke, until Parliament gets SOME kind of act together. But, as OGH says, she is 92.

    73:

    You mean exactly like we vote for our Government a maximum every 5 years? Thats exactly how our democracy is supposed to work.

    Consider yourself fed troll.

    74:

    The next few countries in the list of UK peacekeepers wouldn't warm the hearts of the white folks who voted for Johnson in the leadership poll.

    2 . Rwanda 6,520 3 . Bangladesh 6,431 4 . India 6,178 5 . Nepal 5,674 6 . Pakistan 5,062 7 . Egypt 3,190 8 . Indonesia 2,911 9 . Ghana 2,778 10 . Senegal 2,651

    After that comes China.

    https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/troop-and-police-contributors

    75:

    I'm very sorry to read about your parent.

    As for the rest, I'm sorry and depressed for the creatures of the world - including me. Ugh.

    76:

    Okay, this from The Guardian is just plain funny, appearing on their front page just "below the fold" so to speak from the prorogue story, about a horde of coins found (https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2019/aug/28/huge-hoard-norman-coins-reveals-millennium-old-tax-scam)

    The story ends with this quote:

    “Imagine a period of instability with someone in charge of the country that not everybody actively supports and uncertainty in terms of the relationship with the continent,” he said.

    “It is the sort of circumstances in which anyone might choose to bury their money.”

    77:

    TOO LATE Brenda has acceded to the PM's LEGAL request for a prorogation - see why for Charlie @ 34 - she would have to have VERY good grounds to say "no" BUT Corbyn has asked to see HM ... TRouble is Corbyn is AT LAST playing by the rules & so is Brenda - BOZO isn't - nor is Cummings [ PHK @ 50 -= WHAT couild she, actually do? ]

    HOWEVER there's a tiny window of opprtunity in early September.

    78:

    I'm an American lawyer, so I apologize in advance for what I'm sure is going to read as blisteringly stupid to British eyes. Why couldn't the queen have simply denied that she had the power to prorogue Parliament against Parliament's consent? Wasn't that what King Charles II was convicted of?

    79:

    That ship sailed months ago.

    When was the last time you heard anybody in political EU talk about "remain" ?

    Nobody, not even tweeded anglophiles, can see how UK, in its present state, can function, and be trusted to function, as a member of EU.

    And there will be no negotiations delivering a last minute miracle.

    There may be meetings, but EU is not going to offer Boris any kind of candy after what he did to them as a "journalist", and certainly not on the premise that the result will be rammed through a pissed of parliament in a couple of days right before the deadline.

    No: This is it.

    Brace for Impact!

    80:

    The rather snide point I’m making and that you are missing is that your opinions are not to be trusted, seeing as you proudly stood beside your work on “BREXIT: The Movie”, and defended that piece of mendacious trash by basically saying it’s ok to lie to people so long as you get the result you want. Someone who distributes lies, proudly stands by those lies, even more proudly declares that they know that they’re spreading lies disinformation and propaganda is not to be trusted. Ever.

    (PS: You never ever got round to providing an answer to my question about how Brexit was good for NI.)

    But this is sailing perilously close to not playing the ball and some light sea-lioning, so I shall let it drop here.

    81:

    She could have waited a couple of days, given the various visitors a chance to say their piece, before she did whatever she had already made her mind up to.

    That would have given the impression that the result that she valued and respected the input from her speaker and the leader of the loyal opposition.

    Instead she just rubber-stamped it right through, less than 12 hours after the public and the Parliament heard about it first time, indicating that in her view A) Parliament is not part of the solution and B) Corbyn does not matter.

    It's a pretty strong signal to send if you think about it, all while staying 100% inside the dotted lines and far away from any constitutional crisis.

    ... And as I said: Probably the fastest way to get rid of Boris too.

    82:

    On one hand, I think you have it exactly right.

    On the other hand, I'll repost my link from earlier, this time with some text from the Wikipedia article:

    "The Foundations of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical Future of Russia is a geopolitical book by Aleksandr Dugin. The book has had a large influence within the Russian military, police, and foreign policy elites and it has been used as a textbook in the Academy of the General Staff of the Russian military. Its publication in 1997 was well-received in Russia and powerful Russian political figures subsequently took an interest in Dugin, a Russian eurasianist, fascist and nationalist who has developed a close relationship with Russia's Academy of the General Staff."

    Why the fuck does nobody seem to care about this?

    83:

    The notorious Article 50 starts with "Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements". This can be read in two ways. (1) The parliament voted to invoke Article 50, thereby satisfying the requirement (the interpretation loudly trumpeted by HMG). Or (2) The parliament has to approve the final act of withdrawing. Given that thanks to Maybot the current parliament is not the one that invoked A50, I have heard it said that legally reading (2) could have more weight and that if courts agree, the default position is not falling out of the EU, but A50 automatically expiring on Halloween.

    Pigs may fly, of course, but one is grateful for any crumb of hope. :-(

    84:

    As an American, watching this slow-motion disaster is maddening. It seems blatantly obvious that the UK's leadership has been charting a course for disaster for the last five years or more. And yet, no one seems willing or able to stop them. It's really depressing.

    And... then I think about what's been happening in the U.S. since at least 2016 and see the exact same dynamic at play. I want to believe that all of this (in both countries) was caused by a combination of Russian influence operations and greedy, short-sided political leadership, but that may just because I find the alternative--that we really are that stupid--to be too frightening.

    85:

    IIRC, in his "Stand on Zanzibar", John Brunner had these words of wisdom: "As a human race we are not entirely stupid, but it must be admitted that we do have a tremendous aptitude for it."

    86:

    Chrisj @ 19: Why would you wait until October to stockpile? Stockpile now, because prices are only going to rise, and supplies will only run shorter, as time goes on.

    I suspect those who can will. But what about those who can't? What about people who are barely getting by even before the catastrophe arrives? How do they stockpile if they can barely afford to feed themselves today?

    87:

    Why the fuck does nobody seem to care about this?

    Because it takes more than writing a book on geopolitics to change the world. Hint: remember the Project for the New American Century and look how well that worked.

    88:

    For what it's worth, when the UK invoked Article 50, the interpretation of its text by everyone was entirely in accord with your interpretation (1) -- that invoking Article 50 started a 2-year clock to an exit, which might be advanced if a Withdrawal Agreement was concluded earlier, but which provided for no way back. This has since been modified by a ruling from EU internal bodies that a state which has started the clock by invoking Article 50, but which has not yet finally left, can decide to revoke its Article 50 notification and forget the whole thing. But that has to be by an affirmative act, which fulfils conditions -- there was language in the ruling to the effect that the once-leaving state must be sincere in its desire to remain, and not be revoking as a temporizing move or negotiating tactic.

    So, it seems pretty doubtful that the EU would adopt a position that inaction by a national parliament somehow constitutes the affirmative act of revoking a prior Article 50 notification. Parliament can avoid No Deal by explicitly revoking their Article 50 notification, or by approving a Withdrawal Agreement that's acceptable to both them and the remaining members of the EU (any of which has a veto) -- but they must do something. Further inaction on their part gets you out with no deal. Sorry.

    89:

    Dave Lester @ 26: Chris,

    One thing worth considering is that martial law is not an option these days. Quite simply there are no longer enough troops and police combined to do anything other than defend themselves. This is the upshot of the Government's own assessments.

    So, we'll have to call in UN Peace Keepers. I wonder if Trump would contribute?

    God, I hope not. I don't know who would want American troops deployed as "peace-keepers" in the UK less, You or US?

    90:

    Looking like Ruth Davidson may be resigning tomorrow.

    (fetches popcorn)

    I am finding it hard to see how Boris losing four or five days of Parliament scrutiny is worth this shit show…

    91:

    I'd point out that I'm not clear that we could deploy peacekeepers to the UK.

    From an article Bill Arnold linked to a couple of posts before, about the problem of invading Iran:

    "The US Marine Corps is also facing resourcing issues as it has no Marine expeditionary units to spare—they are all currently committed for existing training or operations. And the US Navy is also stretched. The three–carrier group show of force off the coast of the DPRK between November and December 2017 burned through an entire year’s worth of maintenance, training, and operational resources in a three-week period. Finally, Gen. Tony Thomas, commander of US Special Operations Command, has made it clear to Congress that he has no more special operations forces to spare.

    "And this is where the United States’ side of the human geography trap circles back to Karle’s argument about the need to plan for an occupation the way the Marshall Plan was conceptualized. Much of the military capabilities utilized to make the Marshall Plan successful were the result of leveraging civil affairs expertise to provide military support to government. Unfortunately, the farther the United States moved away from the Marshall Plan, the more this core competency of civil affairs was allowed to disappear. While there has been a fitful attempt to bring this capability back to the US Army civil affairs community with the creation of the 38G area of concentration—military government specialist—and the creation of a new Institute for Military Support to Governance akin to what was used to prepare civil affairs soldiers for their work in implementing the Marshall Plan, these efforts have, unfortunately, repeatedly stalled."

    Note that I'm citing the Marines because they and the Navy seem to be generally tasked with policing and disaster relief, so at first glance they'd bear the brunt of peacekeeping. I'm not sure the Army or the National Guards have anyone to send, either, especially if we have to start doing the hurricane cha cha cha again this fall.

    92:

    StormChaser @ 54: Is talking of people going hungry due to food shortages not something of an overreaction?

    Here in Dublin I think if we saw our next door neighbors in real need of basic food/medicine there would be no lack of effort or money to make sure that supplies were delivered. Which isn't to say that there will be a shortage of fine wines or more exotic foodstuff. But there will be bread and milk and meat and veg and airdrops of medicines if required.

    I think not. BoZo and his ilk don't have the common decency or basic humanity of your Dublin neighbors. Having the under-classes suffer is the whole point of the exercise.

    If they don't want to suffer, then they shouldn't be poor.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYHmQT_7a2c

    93:

    Well, that depends. If you have enough hubris to set out to engage in nation building, e.g. PNAC, you may find it takes more than a platitude laden manifesto.

    But if it's nation-breaking that you're seeking to do, well, it's going swimmingly right now.

    94:

    Troutwaxer @ 55: So Parliament is prorogued. ("Pro-rogue" - get it?)

    But what happens if a majority of Parliament rents a big hall, has a meeting, and passes a vote of no-confidence? Or if a majority of Parliament sends official letters to the Queen expressing that they have no confidence in her PM? Is this a possible way forward?

    The proclamation says "no earlier than Monday the 9th Day of September". That's 11 days (not counting today). Could Parliament hold such a vote between now and then? I don't expect it to happen, but is there any rule/law/custom that says it couldn't be done? In that case, would Parliament even need to "rent a big hall"?

    95:

    Has anyone in the UK press proposed (even jokingly) punitively taxing all increases in income (and perhaps wealth, and perhaps above a threshold) after a hard Brexit, at something in excess of 100 percent? In the US it's been a well-known truism that If You Tax Something, You Get Less of It. Such talk might get the attention of people who've arranged their financial position such that they will personally gain from a hard Brexit, including MPs and other politically powerful people. "Taxes are always distortionary because people can change their behavior to avoid the tax." Which is to say, I wonder how much of the current UK crisis is being driven or enabled by profit opportunities.

    Re storage of rice, beans, etc, metal trash cans (?rubbish bins?) with lids are rodent-proof and cheap. (one like this)

    96:

    Seen from Switzerland this is all very troubling and weird. Shouldn't this be an opportunity to think about a written constitution? Unwritten constitutions only work with strong norms, which obviously are not present anymore. And at the same time, one could also discuss if a monarchy really makes sense, given that the Middle Age is safely behind us.

    97:

    I read that as the UK being their neighbours.

    It would be deeply ironic for the Irish to be sending food to help us, given the history of the Famine Years.

    98:

    Sigh. They'll happily send you all the potatoes you want.

    99:

    Except that this does seem very much to be the current Russian playbook. If I was in charge of Iran, for example, and understood how much influence neo-conservatives have on U.S. politics, I'd take the Project for the New American Century very seriously indeed.

    I don't want to be paranoid and see the Liberal equivalent of "reds under the bed," but when another country prints a manual about how to regain power and uses it as a textbook for their general staff, maybe it's useful to take it seriously and factor that work into your analysis of enemy intentions and practices!

    If you live in the U.S. or U.K. this book is a very big deal.

    100:

    I'm no longer sure if I should feel bad that I have spent a lot of time working out how an individual can short the pound (it's relatively easy if you're solvent enough to borrow money against some security, but I'm not sure if I want to take the risk).

    I know I should feel bad because I'm contemplating taking a bet from which I will profit if the UK falls (further) apart. But I can't: I can't care any more. I've spent so much time caring what happens and so much time trying to do the right thing and I'm just done now. All this idiot fuckery has eaten three years of the time we really don't have to deal with climate change: the Amazon is on fire, and still, somehow, brexit is more important, perhaps because it affects rich white people and climate change is mostly hurting poor black people (so far).

    Fuck humanity: we deserve what's coming.

    101:

    Climate change does rather feel like asking the question "Mommy, why can't we talk about how much Daddy drinks?" It's the main dysfunctionality of our time.

    102:

    Unwritten constitutions only work with strong norms, which obviously are not present anymore.

    If enough of a country's political leadership abandons its norms, a written constitution becomes dead words on a page, with no power to drag them back. The United States may not have had this happen yet, but at best, we're teetering on the precipice.

    103:

    There has been a concerted effort to cultivate cynicism towards government in the anglosphere - Which has resulted in far to many cynics in government and not enough idealists. Idealism may be dangerous, but kleptocracy is ruinous.

    Note how very, very old the main figures opposing the "Steal Everything" tendency are. Frankly, they look like surviving relics from before the public choice propaganda started doing the rounds.

    104:

    Jim D @ 76: Okay, this from The Guardian is just plain funny, appearing on their front page just "below the fold" so to speak from the prorogue story, about a horde of coins found (https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2019/aug/28/huge-hoard-norman-coins-reveals-millennium-old-tax-scam)

    The story ends with this quote:

    “Imagine a period of instability with someone in charge of the country that not everybody actively supports and uncertainty in terms of the relationship with the continent,” he said.
    "It is the sort of circumstances in which anyone might choose to bury their money."

    Just out of curiosity, who gets to keep how much? Since it hasn't been valued yet, fractions will do ... or percentages - e.g. the finders get 'x' percent, the farmer gets 'y' percent and the government gets 'n' percent (and then I presume the TAX man gets to take a bite out of whatever the finders & the farmer get.

    105:

    I'd point out that I'm not clear that we could deploy peacekeepers to the UK.

    The units you cite are entirely wrong for deployment to the UK, where the mission is not to trash the infrastructure and depose the government, but to prop up the government in the face of mass unrest, demonstrations, a possible general strike, and starvation-induced riots. Again: the British Army and Royal Marines are vastly understrength for this mission, and the Police are outnumbered (they've been cut by 30% since the 2011 riots, which they barely contained: Brexit food riots are likely to be much bigger and vastly harder to suppress because starving people have literally nothing to lose).

    I fear we'll be seeing Xe mercenaries with guns shooting demonstrators in the streets. Nothing to do with the US Army/USMC.

    Also, as a developed nation with a population of 66M, the UK is much more densely populated/infrastructure-complex than the usual places UN peacekeepers end up. It's a harder problem—who's going to keep the lights on and the natural gas pipelines flowing, not to mention the nuclear reactor fleet? (Some of the latter are US-style PWRs, but other reactors are built to a design unique to the UK: the AGRs. In event of civil unrest making it hard to maintenance staff to get to the control rooms …)

    Oh, also B-day (November 1st) is scheduled for about two weeks before the onset of winter, when power consumption rises in the UK (because it gets cold). If the currency collapses at a time of peaking energy imports, we're going to be in the shitter.

    106:

    For you and anyone else I know from this blog, (with a couple exceptions) if you need to get out my wife and I have an unused room in our house. Just saying... My gmail address should be obvious.

    107:

    Poul-Henning Kamp @ 81: ... And as I said: Probably the fastest way to get rid of Boris too.

    If you really wanted to get rid of BoZo FAST, you could check with the Royal Armouries Museum in Leeds to see if they have one of those old WWI/WWII railroad guns that could fire a shell as big as a Volkswagen all the way across the English Channel. Isn't this the 75th anniversary of the liberation of Europe from Nazi tyranny & doesn't BoZo like stunts?

    I'm sure there's got to be some date worth commemorating between now and October 31st that would be suitable for sending him to France via the Human Cannonball Express.

    ... and if not, just make something up.

    108:

    Charlie, the thing is that we use carrier battlegroups and marines to deal with disasters: the carrier provides a floating airport for the helicopters lightering in goods from cargo ships that can't dock, while the Marines tend to have the small unit/less lethal/unarmed training that can be adapted to deal with civilian unrest and infrastructural meltdown. The Marines tend to get tasked with the crap (like decontaminating biohazards) that the regular military doesn't want to deal with. If it's a true disaster, the Marines might get deployed with Medecins Sans Frontieres (for the medical part of the emergency) and Red Cross or similar (for the logistics part of the emergency) to provide peacekeeping.

    Unfortunately, everyone who can do that seems to be deployed doing something else right now, so it's a moot point. Unless we've got some National Guard MPs on home training right now who could be redirected, the US won't be doing much other than sending thoughts, prayers, or the odd billionaire looking to restructure things to help out post-Brexit.

    Personally, my thoughts at the moment turn to paralyzing the City of London until Halloween, so that the backers of Brexit really get stung and lose money before they get their way. Alas, I'm sure that's daft and impractical.

    109:

    Charlie, thank you for remembering the effect the Queen intervening would have had on our esteemed Canadian neighbours. (She is reigning head of state for sixteen countries!)

    As a small quibble (that the Canadian scandal wasn't over proroguing parliament), ISTR that the constitutional crisis in Ottawa you have in mind was the 1926 King-Byng affair (what the wags called the 'King-Byng Thing'), involving the GG, Lord Byng of Vimy, being asked by embattled Liberal Party PM William Mackenzie King to dissolve parliament and drop the writ for a general election, refusing to implement his PM's request, and then sitting by while the opposition Conservatives briefly formed a government that almost immediately lost a confidence vote, returning the previous PM to power.

    The experience of a GG seemingly refusing a PM's request to call new elections for reasons of partisanship in Canadian affairs lead to a legal reform where the GG's former imperial powers were clipped off entirely and permanently.

    Apparently particularly persuasive were the fact that GG Byng not only claimed insincerely to be refusing to act so that the matter could be settled in Canada rather than in London, but also refused to consult the British government prior to making any decision. In other words, Byng acted like a viceroy, and Canadians decided they'd have no more of that.

    110:

    There is an explanation of what's going on, though not a very convincing one. There's reasonable, though hardly conclusive, evidence that Trump is somehow under Putin's thumb. What if he's also got his hand in British politics?

    Of course, it could just be that social media lives by amplifying emotional reactions, and they don't pay any attention to whether it's true or false, and a lot of people judge things based on their emotional reactions, and also spend a lot of time on social media.

    Or some combination.

    111:

    Off-topic: it makes me sad that we can keep things out of the public eye by putting them on our blogs.

    That's not really off-topic. Part of the problem is information overload. Nobody can keep track of most of what's going on, so they only track those things they've already decided are important...and they decide what's important by what those things they've already decided are important tell them. This is a positive feedback cycle, and is a big part of the problem, particularly since most people have decided that, e.g., Facebook is one of the most important things.

    N.B.: People have always worked this way, but before the information overload most people knew a larger part of at least the local situation. Today I can't even name my council man (I'm in the US) though I can name the state governor, and my representative. I know this is bad judgment on my part, as my council man is a lot more likely to pay any attention to what I say to him.

    112:

    The next few countries in the list of UK peacekeepers... 4 . India 6,178 ... 6 . Pakistan 5,062 A force of 50/50 India and Pakistan troops would be really interesting peacekeeping right now!

    Every October I read Zelazney's "A Night In The Lonesome October". This year is going to add some real emphasis to it.

    113:

    In this version the protagonist loses and the Great Old White Ones come and have a revolution.

    114:

    Charlie,

    I am so sorry to hear about your mother.

    It is also with increasing sense of alarm that I'm reading your posts re: Brexit. How did everything get so wrong? Why is everyone so radical? The world didn't look as crazy, say, ten years ago as it's looking now. I wish you and other UK citizens to find a way to survive whatever happens next and get back to sane levels of existence.

    115:

    Isn't parliament needed to make necessary legislation surrounding a no-deal brexit that's still missing? I.e. if parliament is basically suspended till November, is the UK legally prepared for that?

    I hope the Franco-German Brigade doesn't have to ride the Eurostar and pacify the UK...

    116:

    If only it were as simple as the Great Old Ones showing up. An infestation of off-shored billionaires who refuse to contribute money to civil society are a much worse calamity.

    Anyway, it's nice to know that I'm not the only one who reads that book every year. Carry on.

    117:

    Isn't parliament needed to make necessary legislation

    a lot of people misunderstand: A50 was triggered, so the flotilla of treaties that makes the EU will expire, for the UK, at 2 years plus extra time.

    any 'deal' is just setting up arrangements to cope with the event

    118:

    It's slightly complex: the common decency/humanity of a Fine Gael government barely exists*, but their Anglophilia might overwhelm their base "let them eat cake" stance and the common decency/humanity of the Irish people is not that of a Fine Gael government; but we're getting fierce sick of being shat on from a height by the UK's political/media class and screwing the UK to the wall in the event of No Deal is actually in Ireland's interest - the more the UK bleeds, the faster and more penitently it'll sign the backstop in pursuit of an FTA.
    Screw the Brits to save the North? Hard question.

    *If you imagine Varadkar as a smart and committed Cameron-era Tory operator that watched Love Actually at a formative age and never quite shook the aspiration to be PM Hugh Grant you'd be wrong, but by surprisingly little.

    119:

    Rather late, and not entirely sure wtf is going on over there, anyhow...

    I wouldn’t really expect ‘lizabeth to say No! to anything, but what if she said “We strongly suggest that you do not do this thing that will disrupt the Union.” or something along those lines? Otherwise it kinda seems like she’s either ignorant of what’s going on (willfully or not), which I can’t really imagine, or she doesn’t give a toss ‘cause she’s got hers.

    And WRT bringing in Peacekeepers, may I suggest inviting the Swedish Army?

    120:

    Heteromeles @ 108 Personally, my thoughts at the moment turn to paralyzing the City of London until Halloween, so that the backers of Brexit really get stung EXACTLY WRONG The "City" is against this whole lunacy - they WANT TO BE INSIDE EUROPE, where the money is ... Remember BOZO actually said: "fuck business"

    121:

    Oh, and as someone else offered a spare room; I’d be tempted to offer ours, but we’re in the middle of Trumplandia. On my way home this afternoon I passed a table set up on the side of the road for a petition to recall our recently elected Democrat Governor. I’m not sure what their reasons are, but judging by the people standing around—older white guys* with beer guts and suspenders—they might not be too keen on someone who’s Jewish and gay. So tempted to give them the finger, but they’d likely be armed.

    *okay, #notalloldwhiteguys.

    122:

    I stand corrected. My presumption is that the goal of Brexit is to turn the UK into the world's biggest offshore financial center (beating out Switzerland), with a politically stable government; stable economy; a wide choice of reputable banks and other institutions; modern, a low-tax or tax-free environment; excellent support services, including a choice of quality legal and accounting firms; sensible and effective regulation and supervision; high ethical standards in government, the professions, and commerce laws that are clear and fair, applied by a competent judiciary (per Harrington Capital Without Borders).

    And yes, these are all judged from the perspective of someone with US$50 million or more to invest, and from that angle, "fair" is very different than what a UK voter might prefer. For example, this standard of fairness favors legislators who can be persuaded to offer legislation created by wealth managers (and who are also in the emoluments market) as opposed to a government of, by, or for all of the people.

    My idle pipe dream, on the theory that such a makeover is a bad thing, would be to mar or impede all of these characteristics as much as possible, especially for the super-rich: My ignorant presumption also is that any bozoid pronouncement should be presumed to be as honest as anything coming out of the White House or the Kremlin, but again, I am greatly ignorant.

    123:

    Hopelessly ignorant question - given that Parliament is only prorogued until the 14th - is this actually anything more than symbolic?

    For a no-confidence vote, now is not too early. For a revocation of article 50, there would still be 2 weeks. For passing May's deal - same thing.

    124:

    Switzerland isn't a big financial center on the global stage. It has less than a quarter the financial jobs London had pre-Brexit-madness. The idea that London could grow to "beat our Switzerland" as a financial center by leaving the EU just doesn't add up.

    New York is a big financial centre. London is (still). Hong Kong is, and is becoming more of one.

    What creates a big finance industry is lots of connections between people, markets, industries - both currently and historically. New York is a financial center because it's part of the USA. Hong Kong is a financial center because it connects into China. London is a financial center because of its historic connections to international trade, and its current connections to Europe.

    I'm not sure there's any evidence that the super-rich as a whole back Brexit, any more than the average Britain their age does - do remember that the majority of the world's wealth is held by those over the age 65.

    125:

    I think you missed the "offshore" part. City of London IIRC is technically offshore from the EU, meaning a number of rather pesky financial regulations don't apply to it. Switzerland is the biggest Offshore Financial Center in the world currently. Brexit would "offshore" the UK, and reworking UK laws to make it a safe tax haven for billionaires would reap, what, $14 billion to a handful of people who have made it happen? It would also help Little England transition to take Switzerland's place in the economy of the super-rich.

    Assuming this is at all correct, making the UK useless for billionaires is one way to stem the rot. Note that this isn't quite the same as making it bad for EU businesses, but rather making it a place that's unsafe for those who see the payment of any debt (taxes, alimony, business expenses...) as a taking to be avoided if at all possible.

    126:

    "What better way for her to abridge the tenure of Boris the Clown, than to hand him all the rope he asks for ?"

    It's more like handing a loon a large can of gasoline and matches, when you all are in the same house.

    127:

    Well, the UK "constitution" has no prohibition against bills of attainder, unlike the US, so the only thing preventing them is the ECHR so detested by Conservatives, and Ms. Priti Patel is said to be fond of capital punishment. Thus in the event of a Hard Brexit, there would be no obstacle to a Charles I reenactment.

    128:

    "I'd also point out, on general principles (and talking to myself), that it's a good time to learn how to can produce and store your own. After all, it's harvest season, so hit the markets and store your own for what looks like a fairly rough winter.

    Don't depend on the markets to have it all canned up for you: do it yourself and avoid the botulism."

    I disagree on 'how to produce your own'. Growing your own food takes time, energy, money, land skills and stability.

    129:

    Good point. I actually didn't mention growing your own food, as I was thinking of preserving some of the produce that should be rolling into grocery stores in the next few months. Canning or drying a bunch of that might be useful. It's a bit late to sow seeds if you're worried about a food shortage in 2-3 months.

    130:

    Honestly, one more of the few bright spots for Brexit is the likelihood of having your local vampire squids decamp.

    If there is any competent conspiracy, I'd guess there are a few people in NY and Hong Kong about to raise a toast to extra business.

    I mean - assuming less than complete idiocy - the segment of the economy that gets hurt worst is services - of which most of the UKs are financial.

    Where is that ex-prime minister working again? The one who called the idiotic referendum? I mean - other than that - most of the rest seems strangely inevitable. Albeit, I may have been wrong - in that May appears to have failed to get her deal through. Albeit, she did leave the next guy in a spot where it is pretty clear that the options are:

  • Her deal
  • An even worse disaster than no deal would have been with adequate preparation
  • No Brexit
  • I'm not sure which works out best. For 3, you'd probably have riots for a long time. For 1, you gradually bleed out your economy as the EU, with limited malice, but reasonable self interest and plenty of leverage, migrates the service sector to the EU. Death of a billion papercuts. For 2, you have an immediate disaster - and people do die. But...after the immediate disaster, there is a sharper economic bleed out as the UK realizes it has absolutely no leverage. Then, at some point, in the midst of a depression, the UK reapplies. And sure, the terms are more stringent, but most of the Brexiteers have been hung from lampposts already. So, eh. Maybe you have the same status as Turkey, but that isn't too bad... Okay, optimism failing. Bear in mind that I'm bullish on geoengineering. There just isn't a bright side. Maybe other nations get reeducated in the perils of opting for fact-free decision-making.

    Well. Hoping for a good, or at least decent outcome.

    131:

    "you think the Johnsonites can come up with a deal acceptable to the EU?"

    I keep thinking that with every step deeper into insanity, the EU leadership has got to be moving more to the 'get them out now!' position.

    Would you want loons like the UK in your system, when the past three years they've demonstrated that every bit of their reputation for stability and sanity is undeserved?

    132:

    "What power, if any, does the EU have to say, "No, you're not leaving the EU while your government is divided against itself and neither side has an accepted legal right to govern & make decisions like this.""

    At the risk of being redundant, this is motivation for the EU to start mining the English Channel. Maybe hire some tugboats and tow the Troublesome Islands a bit closer to Iceland.

    133:

    Fun facts:

    Abolishthemonarchy trended on twitter; coupled with the Andy-Pandy stuff this has raised a few eyebrows (and the timed book release of the Mountbatten biography that makes some fairly gnarly claims about what that 15 yr old Irish lad was really doing on the boat). Not sure the Upper Class realize what the DM is doing, but it sure isn't Class Warfare - they're also going after Meg+Ginger, not sure of their game-plan.

    Newsnight had no senior Government Ministers - "none were available" and word is that none will be available in the future. Melt down of the Melts, spin doctor death spiral [i]or it no longer matters[/i].

    Entire UK political chattering media are about to have the Mind-Fuck of a generation. They're pruning the even vaguely truly lefty ones, the rest are 100% on the Scanners Block.

    Various small protests, but the UK middle class just don't get how badly they will get it if it turns sour (for any in doubt, during the "Banning Hunt Protests", the Upper/Middle class met riot gear stuff on the front and many of the farmer lads and young bloods found out that The State is The State at the blunt end of the cudgel).

    SIS is AWOL. Rumors. grep forests.

    We gamed this out over a week ago, fairly confident that Boris / Cummings [i]need[/i] a 2011 re-run and are going to flog the horse until it happens, by any means necessary. FR/HK show that if you can whether it, no-one cares.

    Buying machetes is a meme now. Not very many here live in the more rough / impoverished parts of the UK, but you probably don't want to be living in Grimsby or the NW.

    "It's In the Water" - if you want a hard-end nasty nasty plan. Not ISIS themed, either.

    London Calling - 66,000,000 requires a bit more than the IEA. [redacted], are we allowed to mention slaved Hive Minds yet? Waaaasssappp!

    ~

    Given we're probably one of those not on the nice list, a fable:

    We tried to leave, politely. We were stopped. We were offered a deal. We said no. We tried to leave, hasty. Nasty MIB came and stopped us. Surrounded us with chains.

    So we did this.

    "We won"

    Yeah. That's gonna be quite the slogan soon. Richard Lost His Horse and His Head. Gettit?

    [i]Our information is that you're just bored and lonely[/i] (Lazy? Oh...)

    134:

    Martin: " Isn't parliament needed to make necessary legislation"

    Barren: "a lot of people misunderstand: A50 was triggered, so the flotilla of treaties that makes the EU will expire, for the UK, at 2 years plus extra time."

    I think that the situation is that a number of treaties expire, but UK law has not yet been changed. This means that the legal situation will be a nightmare, even just domestically. The UK-EU will be a swirling limbo of contradictory things fighting and mating.

    135:

    "It's slightly complex: the common decency/humanity of a Fine Gael government barely exists*, but their Anglophilia might overwhelm their base "let them eat cake" stance and the common decency/humanity of the Irish people is not that of a Fine Gael government; ..."

    From what I've heard, following the news from the States, Ireland will immediately go into a severe economic collapse, second only to the UK. This means that Irish resources will be tied up keeping Ireland from sinking.

    136:

    "I stand corrected. My presumption is that the goal of Brexit is to turn the UK into the world's biggest offshore financial center (beating out Switzerland), with a politically stable government; ...(a long list of good things) "

    In other words, the UK, which was, until Brexit.

    137:

    "...following the news from the States, Ireland will immediately go into a severe economic collapse..."

    Following what particular piece of news from the states?

    Or are you saying that you are following the (general) news from the states and believe that news implies Ireland will have a severe economic collapse after Brexit?

    138:

    "New York is a big financial centre. London is (still). Hong Kong is, and is becoming more of one."

    And HK is now likely to be one horribly violent crackdown from being as much of a financial center as a post-nuclear war London would be.

    139:

    Any advice on how to store 20kg bags of Basmati rice, and ditto for pulses?

    Lots, I do this all the time.

    The simple way is to find a standard size stackable container that seals reasonably well. Ideally a robust one but glass jars will do. If you can make it a small multiple of your standard consumption unit that also helps (one is ideal). In my case I could buy 1kg square plastic jars of stewed fruit, and since I am ok eating that, I did. I have between 50 and 100 of them, and they stack 32 to a milk crate.

    Buy your grain or legumes in bulk (20kg or 25kg plastic sacks are often the cheapest way), and part them out into the jars. I find a metal (stainless steel) camping mug works well as a scoop, put an open jar in the top of the sack, scoop with the mug/scoop, fill the jar. Bang it on the loose rice to settle it and dislodge the excess, put the lid on, place in in a cool dry place.

    That will give you a big pile of reasonably secure dry goods. BUT if there are weevils about they will almost certainly get into or hatch inside the jars.

    ..........................

    To prevent that the easy way is to use an inert gas. The cheap option is likely to be CO2, because that's used for soda streams and home brewing. In the UK looks like 40 quid for deposit and refill on a 1.5kg cylinder and 30 quid for a regulator. What I do is put the sack in a big plastic drum which I then fill with CO2. But since that's only slightly heaver than air it's not very efficient, I find leaving the gas running while the lid is open is necessary to keep the oxygen content below 10% (oxygen meter 55 quid, UYIGAO Portable Oxygen Meter) but whether you do that or not be careful not to breathe what's in the bin... you want the oxygen level in there as low as possible.

    Using argon when I had a welder I could keep whole sacks in 100-litre plastic drums for 3 years with no insect or mould problems (the gas is also very dry so nothing grows). With argon it's possible to fill jars from the sack and have relatively low oxygen levels in the jars, but unless the jars are hermetically sealed you'll end up with normal air in them very quickly. Even a not-quite-airtight seal on the big plastic drum seems to work though. After a year I was at about 10% oxygen rather than <1% when I put the lids on (albeit I ran packing tape round the lid-drum seal).

    140:

    Oops, reply truncated...

    Using ~100l drums with lids and wide packing tape round the edge of the lid and bin I was at ~10% O2 after a year, up from less than 1%.

    Those drums are widely available and cheap, BTW, because food is imported in them and then what do you do with the drum? Answer: sell it for five quid or pay to recycle it. There are people who make a living finding those drums and reselling them, often as "rainwater butts" or similar. Work out what size you can store one or two of, make sure they have a big enough opening, and buy some. My 100l drums you have to wiggle a 20kg sack in and out of the top, but they hold 3 sacks. a 220l drum (the old "40 gallon" or "44 gallon" size) come in variants with clip on metal ring seals and hold an awful lot of food, but they are also really big (narrower than a standard doorway, but still)

    141:

    Me: "...following the news from the States, Ireland will immediately go into a severe economic collapse..."

    Troutwaxer: "Following what particular piece of news from the states?

    Or are you saying that you are following the (general) news from the states and believe that news implies Ireland will have a severe economic collapse after Brexit?"

    Following general news and analysis. Ireland exports a lot to the UK, and more through the UK.

    142:

    I realized the confusion - I'm in the States. I'll give you a hint - when people ask where I'm from, I hold up my right hand.......... :)

    143:

    So customs and border problems? Does Ireland have a decent harbor anyplace?

    144:

    "Does Ireland have a decent harbor anyplace?"

    They outsourced their ports to Iceland :)

    145:

    That's cute.

    Let me parse this for you: Americans are sociopaths. You're not a smart bear.

    What's actually on the menu is that a certain mafia clan with strong ties to Boston, USA is being used and tooled up and will be used to generate enough anger (Aahah, begore, it's the boiler scandal, what a jape!) to light shit up. The pre-prep was a certain lesbian journalist whose death hasn't had a serious inquiry, who traveled and was paid by some dodgy front companies and 100% someone left out to fucking dry in a dangerous zone where none of the fucking locals had guns that night. But she got shot, hey Beegooora, what a nice funeral that was.

    Nice bit of National Unity to make sure the DUP deal went through.

    Shame she was a lesbian though, can't see the DUP supporting using her as a fucking sacrificial lamb, can you now?

    DUP are fucking dinosaurs and SIS have severe PTSD after seeing what the other parties be doing to their nationals (and them). With impunity.

    grep, oh, I don't know, NGO UK national found hanged in a Turkish airport.

    ~

    "outsourced their ports to Iceland"

    Maaaaaate.

    WE'RE GOING TO OUTSOURCE YOUR FUCKING MIND.

    146:

    Knew a guy who did that with 5 gallon buckets with gaskets and just packed some dry ice in with the goods. Provided they weren't cold-sensitive, that is.

    147:

    they're also going after Meg+Ginger, not sure of their game-plan.

    Farage wants to be King.

    Which means the House of Windsor has to go.

    The point is not an offshore tax haven -- I mean, look at the Isle of Man! -- but to get post-state capitalism; no government and no law but wealth. So you're not looking at "sod the proles" or "the poor should suffer" so much as you're looking at a sort of distributed slaveholding captive labour force objective.

    148:

    As a small quibble (that the Canadian scandal wasn't over proroguing parliament), ISTR that the constitutional crisis in Ottawa you have in mind was the 1926 King-Byng affair

    I don't think OGH is referring to that. I think He was thinking about Harper prorouging parliament to dodge a non confidence vote. The precedent for that was John A. MacDonald (first PM of Canada) doing the same thing to dodge questions about taking (or giving, I don't recall how much was supposed to stick to him) bribes. Given that, I don't think there is any wiggle room for a PM who has the confidence of the house. Which Bojo has until a confidence vote. I don't know about any precedents of what happens if he loses a confidence vote between getting approval and it actually happening.

    In Canada Harper said I want it right now and the GG made him cool his heels for an hour or two.

    149:

    Oh, and this is now a UK IP address.

    Want to know how to spot the fucking MI5 taking the piss?

    grep GCHQ pinkwashing and Ms. Brazil 2019, Queen of the fucking Jewish Goblins whose had a little TERF issue recently:

    [i]McKee’s partner Sara Canning has asked friends to wear Harry Potter[/i]

    https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/04/24/lyra-mckees-funeral-will-be-a-celebration-of-her-life/

    Narrators voice: No-one wore fucking Harry Potter stuff. Her gf is probably a MI5 plant going by their play book.

    So.

    Barry.

    If you want to talk about Iceland, you'd probably want to talk about the [redacted] from the USA, eh? Pompeo walking in, PM declines to meet and some very pissed off Elves.

    Who we know care. We care. We wanted to come home. They wouldn't let us. Nor would they let us go to the old forests.

    "You're an idiot"

    "We know"

    "We swore to complete the [redacted]"

    150:

    Apologies to host. That's a little spicy.

    But do the greps.

    It's all true.

    Turns out MI5 ain't so sophisticated. You were fairly warned the pay-offs came in 3 year bursts. Not our fault you decided to abuse your [redacted] abilities.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arm-AuVJITM

    What's really going to twist our noodle is when we started using that meme.

    Hint: before MI5 sacrificed a lesbian in NI.

    151:

    Triptych.

    Yeah, Niggas, the knee capping reference was deliberate.

    You're swimming in an Ocean you know nothing about, killing all the beauty and makin sure nothing can threaten you.

    Kill Zer

    Still alive.

    Not psychopathic.

    Not psychotic.

    Just different.

    Brexit = Unicorns.

    Ironic, given how much effort you've used to kill them off.

    152:

    Lazy? Oh... :-)

    Some minor other-side-of-the-pond amusement, as a three-part story: (1) It is leaked that the Blond West D.J. Trump thing(s) has been wondering out loud why the U.S. doesn't nuke hurricanes: Scoop: Trump suggested nuking hurricanes to stop them from hitting U.S. (Jonathan Swan, Margaret Talev, Aug 25, 2019) DJT denies it three times. One DJT denial is a confession. Three is a sworn confession. (Narrator: nukes are a sub-optimal hurricane control technique.) (2) The D.J. Trump thing(s) is an asshole about Puerto Rico:

    We are tracking closely tropical storm Dorian as it heads, as usual, to Puerto Rico. FEMA and all others are ready, and will do a great job. When they do, let them know it, and give them a big Thank You - Not like last time. That includes from the incompetent Mayor of San Juan!

    — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 28, 2019
    (Plus 2 more assholish tweets 2, 3) (3) Dorian "took a more northernly track than expected, causing it to pass to the east of Puerto Rico". (Though St Thomas and some other islands got hit, sigh.)

    153:

    Wow, much fear.

    Wait.

    You got MIND WORMS?

    Lol, they ain't shit.

    I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain

    Oh, and learn how to read GIS / Council Plans.

    Just in case you want to do some things.

    Wasted 5 years of my life on this bullshit.

    Still Alive.

    Pity about Keith, eh?

    Might have to start taking names and a bit of blow back, Mentally Speaking, right?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LduJBDg4wGM

    Yeah Keith, it ain't pretty. 30% are already unstable, another 40% get caught by the [redacted] Tone.

    Ape shit.

    Not like Zombie movies, they massacre themselves.

    ~

    מָשִׁיחַ

    Not cool. Last warnings.

    "Pull his wings off"

    We'd bother with the Sumerian but you don't even respect it.

    .. .2 . .

    154:

    I think bitching about the monarchy is rather beside the point at this point.

    The republic has failed. Strange women handing out swords would probably be an improvement.

    155:

    I disagree completely. Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic ceremony!

    156:

    The point is not an offshore tax haven -- I mean, look at the Isle of Man! -- but to get post-state capitalism; no government and no law but wealth. So you're not looking at "sod the proles" or "the poor should suffer" so much as you're looking at a sort of distributed slaveholding captive labour force objective.

    Nope, states are beneficial, especially if you have more wealth than, say, half of them. The thing about states is that each of them have different laws. The Offshore Financial Centers have laws that make it very easy to set up things like STAR Trusts that control other trusts, corporations, and foundations across the world, each in places with different sets of laws. For example, the yacht may be owned by a corporation based in the Bahamas, while the bank is owned by a corporation based in Switzerland, and the banana plantation is owned by a Panamanian foundation, all controlled by a trust operated out of the Cayman Islands.

    Arbitraging the differences between laws and tax codes among the 190-odd countries on the planet is how the wealthy stay wealthy and get wealthier. They don't want to do away with countries. Instead they want to disempower countries and stop them from working together to control wealth, beyond following the agenda of the super-wealthy.

    Wealthy states that hunt in packs (like the EU) are dangerous because they're collectively big enough to threaten the wealth of the super-rich. Therefore, disassembling these big governments into smaller ones seems to be a project of the new aristocracy. But they want states subservient to the wealthy, not absent. After all, life is so much better when there are laws to protect your life and property, but which can be ignored when they are...inconvenient.

    157:

    Given what I expect to be happening with Climate Change over the next decade - even the next 2 years - Brexit and the consequent food riots by the underclass will be lost in the noise.

    Everyone is pretending that it's possible to continue with "business as usual", even those warning against the inevitable consequences that it's too late to avoid. They may understand it cerebrally, but things like a Gulf Stream collapse and global food shortage aren't really real to them until they happen.

    I fear that our Lords and Masters are grabbing as many valuables as they can while readying their personal lifeboats, not realising that stocks run out, and only retaining a viable slice of civilised society is a solution for longer than 50 years.

    I hope I'm wrong. But just in case, I have assets in SE Australia, where if I'm right, there is a very good chance of society remaining civilised, with all the infrastructure needed and a climate that is relatively hospitable.

    158:

    jrootham wrote:

    I don't think OGH is referring to that.

    I sit corrected, and I thank you. As a well-intended Californian with a Canadian mother-in-law, I try to stay current on Canadian affairs, but some things slip past me.

    OGH's comment seemed to concern Canadian sensitivity concerning Governor-General abusive actions -- but maybe that's a misparse on my part.

    159:

    I fear that our Lords and Masters are grabbing as many valuables as they can while readying their personal lifeboats, not realising that stocks run out, and only retaining a viable slice of civilised society is a solution for longer than 50 years.

    Well, few of those in the position grabbing those valuables for their personal lifeboats will live for fifty years more, so apparently they don't give any thought to what happens after they die.

    160:

    Also, for example here in Finland, the climate change is seen by some as a very good thing because it'll bring more money to Finland. I'm not sure of the specifics, but if for example the global trade collapses, it doesn't bring that much money here...

    161:

    "My ignorant presumption also is that any bozoid pronouncement should be presumed to be as honest as anything coming out of the White House or the Kremlin"

    What you're missing is that we've already gone past that stage, only nothing makes any fucking sense any more so we might as well not have bothered. It wasn't so long ago that people were saying he's now effectively finished, his political career has gone as far as it's ever going to get, because he's become so blatantly unsubtle about professing whatever beliefs he thinks will sound best to whoever's asking the question that there are no longer any people who fail to fully realise he's a complete fucking weasel, and while a degree of weaselness is normal for politicians we do tend to draw the line a long way short of walking round wearing weasel porn T-shirts and leaving a trail of disembowelled rabbits. Only what eventually happened is that the Conservative party completely melted into an undifferentiated lake of runny shit and he was the only lump fat enough to stick up above the surface and be caught by the prime minister scoop - and only that because it snagged on a stray loop of rabbit gut.

    162:

    "the Andy-Pandy stuff"

    Eldrad must li...

    [light bulb] fuck

    OK, who's got a decent scarf?

    163:

    Rumours are appearing of spectral voices gibbering things like "LES ANGLAIS! WHAT DID I TELL YOU?" being heard at midnight near the grave of de Gaulle.

    164:

    For anyone attempting to read along, there are parts of 144, 148 and 149 that are amusingly wrong. Except not really amusing as people are dead and others are heartbroken.

    Using murder and death to prop up a personal narrative, now who normally gets their knickers in a twist about that?

    It’s kettles all the way down!

    165:

    "I'm sure there's got to be some date worth commemorating between now and October 31st that would be suitable for sending him to France via the Human Cannonball Express... and if not, just make something up."

    State opening of Parliament sounds like a good one to me. Dunno if we can guarantee he gets to France, but sod it, we make him go up, who cares where he comes down.

    166:

    JPR @ 121 Which US state & who is the new Guvnor?

    H @ 122 Did you miss Charlie's comment? the Financial Times, the Confederation of British Industry, the Institute of Directors, and the Trade Union Congress lined up against him .... HOWEVER: My ignorant presumption also is that any bozoid pronouncement should be presumed to be as honest as anything coming out of the White House or the Kremlin Is entirely correct - how can you tell of BOZO is lying - his lips are moving...

    Barry @ 131 EXCEPT that the rest of the EU understands quite well that BOZO & the crypto-fascists behind him are a very tiny minority. But - who can they deal with? Who will speak to the EU for the millions of us against this insanity, that can be regarded as "Not interfering in the internal operations of the UK" ??? OOps, because that is the song that the brexiteers are singing, isn't it?

    SEAGULL @ 133 Yes, I noticed that as well Farrago plainy wants us to transform into either a Weimar state, preparatory to a full take-over, or alternatively - BOZO's method I think, to reduce the Monarchy even further ... so that they become like the Italian one, when Musso was in charge. The "March on Rome" is BOZO's model, I think, with a democratic shell, gradually hollowed-out & replaced by some form of fascism-lite. CORRECTION: but the UK middle class just don't get how badly they will get it ifWHEN it turns sour

    .... also Graydon @ 146 No Farrago wants to be a Duce or a Fuhrer, actually. The final objective is correct, though.

    Moz @ 138 A 25kg bag of "Tilda" Basmati rice will keep for up to a year, inside a house. The bags are thin-foil lined & water-tight except at the zip-seal at the top. I shall be buying a spare, same as I will buy two spare 3kg bags of good hard bread flour & two spare 2 litre cans of half-decent olive oil

    @ 142/143 Deacent ports in Ireland: Dublin, Waterford, Cork, Shannon - though the estuary is tricky. Belfast - downstream these days

    Pigeon @ 162 😂

    167:

    "Normal service will be resumed after the catastrophe."

    You foresee an end to it then?

    168:

    "she's either ignorant of what's going on (willfully or not), which I can't really imagine, or she doesn't give a toss 'cause she's got hers."

    Neither of those are the case - the first obviously, the second because she is kind of the anthropomorphic personification of the British historical and monarchical tradition and so from her point of view "she's got hers" pretty much has to include confidence that that tradition will remain stable for generations after her death. Her position is pretty much the complete opposite to the "grab all you can and let everyone else die" crew - "heir to a thousand years of tradition" is a totally alien perspective to them.

    Of course this does not mean that her interests and priorities are necessarily congruent with, or even compatible with, the views of Charlie's Crew [UK subgroup] when you look at the level of specific details and personal concerns. But that isn't true even between individuals of Charlie's Crew [UK subgroup] either, and on the generic level of "not wanting a bunch of selfish fuckwads to burn the whole lot down around us" I think the agreement is extremely strong.

    So there's that, and there's the point that (unlike some of the monarchs we've had) the Queen is about the only actor in the whole ghastly farce that anyone would actually be happy to sit down and have a cup of tea with and not even think about strychnine at any point, and then there's the general tendency of many of us on here to seek engineered solutions that stay within the rules in preference to wild irrational blurges. Since conventional procedures are so patently unable to produce anything other than ever wilder and more irrational blurges any more, while the rules do technically allow for the Queen to intervene, it is natural to think wistfully about it happening. I certainly do, and so do quite a few others.

    The trouble is, as Charlie has pointed out, that it's only a gnat's cock away from completely impossible for circumstances to arise where she actually could intervene without the collateral damage being worse than the disease. She isn't going to do a Samson. It's also her specialist subject, so she probably laughs at some of the ideas we come up with in the same way as we would laugh at proposals for perpetual motion.

    169:

    QUOTE from ex-Cahncellor Ken Clarke: "Conservative backbencher Ken Clarke has accused Boris Johnson of behaving like a "petty dictator", saying the prime minister had caved in to the "the fanatic element of his followers".

    The long-serving MP predicted Johnson's "absolutely outrageous" decision to suspend parliament would "bring together the slightly divided majority in the House of Commons" and could raise the likelihood of a soft Brexit or second referendum.

    He said: "I hope it will bring together the sensible majority of parliament who will find some alternative.

    "The key thing is to decide are we leaving in a sensible way that doesn't do damage to our economy, or are we actually going to have a referendum and decide whether to leave at all."

    170:

    leaving in a sensible way that doesn't do damage to our economy

    Still a strong whiff of unicorn shite about this!

    171:

    Well, from BBC R2 10AM (local) news, Jacob Re-Smog has denied that BoZo is using prorogation to force through a no deal Wrecksit. I am now 150% certain that is exactly what he intends to do!

    172:

    Precisely. She probably DID say "We strongly suggest that you do not do this", because many PMs have reported that she gives extremely useful advice, but Bloody Johnson ignored her.

    173:

    My ignorant presumption also is that any bozoid pronouncement should be presumed to be as honest as anything coming out of the White House or the Kremlin,

    More so.

    In the case of the White House the dominant narrative is racism with a side order of senile dementia; there's a tiny but non-zero risk that at any given time the noise coming out of Trump's mouth might actually make a tiny bit of sense (if it addresses topics he isn't interested in but has just been nobbled about by a courtier who knows what they're talking about).

    In the case of 10 Downing Street, there's no dementia in play. just purest bullshit.

    As a friend of mine who knew Boris at university put it, bullshitters are worse than pathological liars. A pathological liar wants you to believe their lies. A bullshitter doesn't care what you believe, they're just trying to fill the silence. (As a late teen/twenty-something Boris was one of the most brilliant rhetoricians of his generation … but for thirty years a succession of superiors have never once called him on his bullshit and it's rotted his once-sharp brain.)

    174:

    Sigh. Geography, dear.

    Dublin has a large container port. (That's in the Republic, BTW. Not Brexiting.)

    Belfast … has a smaller but viable port adjacent to the shipyard where they built the Titanic.

    Ireland is entirely surrounded by water and rather smaller than Maine. It has container ports, it has harbours, it has lots of coast.

    175:

    Note: things are coming to a pretty pass when I am finding the Many-Named One's paranoid world view not only plausible, but moderate compared to the more extreme possibilities in play.

    We just had a former head of the British Civil Service sighing resignedly that things have gone so far that maybe it's time for the civil service to take matters into its own hands for the sake of the nation. Which is either a call to arms (if he is so far out in the cold that he has no direct connections) or it's a warning shot directed at … someone? Number Ten? The press and public? The European Commission are probably not who it's aimed at as the civil service, unlike their nominal masters, understand and work with the EC ...

    176:

    I don't doubt that there are those who see Ms McKee's murder as an opportunity; but calling her and her bereaved parter MI5 plants is a bit vile, even for the Many Named One's usual level of discourse. (Warning: This is treading on personal toes and experience.)

    177:

    Charlie @ 174 You noted that I actually AGREED with the Seagull, too! If it is that bad & it is .... ARRRGGGH! or something. Though as DtP says, NOT about Lyra McKee ... that was "IRA" vileness at it's "best" Meanwhile, Ruth Davidson has told BOZO to stuff it And Lord Young the tory whip in the HoL has also got exited - quote: "His resignation letter, in which the government's whip in the House of Lords accuses Boris Johnson of "undermining the fundamental role of parliament".

    Writing to Baroness Evans, leader of the House, he said he had initially been "reassured by the prime minister's statement during the leadership election that he was not attracted to the idea of using prorogation to facilitate a no-deal Brexit."

    But he adds: "I am very unhappy at the timing and length of the prorogation, and its motivation. While not agreeing with the hyperbole of some critics, I have been unpersuaded by the reasons given for that decision, which I believes risks undermining the fundamental role of parliament at a critical time in our history, and reinforces the view that the government may not have the confidence of the House for its Brexit policy"

    178:

    Wandering around Belfast, I saw the mural and flower memorial to McKee; that's … not … what you'd expect for an MI5 plant: she was 100% genuine, although I can't rule out that she was deliberately murdered to promote a specific political agenda rather than it being an accident.

    Reminder: now might be a good time to re-read The Execution Channel by Ken MacLeod, which kinda looks like a road map for the next year or two (except for the last chapter, which is hopelessly utopian).

    179:

    Can't be ruled out completely, as you say, but having read and heard reliable and independent eye witness accounts, and having some experience of civil unrest in NI, the idea that she was deliberately targeted is difficult to give serious credence to.

    But there are definitely those willing to make political hay out of the sad event (both peacefully and violently).

    I haven't read "The Execution Channel", but have now added it to the top of my reading list.

    180:
    What's actually on the menu is that a certain mafia clan with strong ties to Boston, USA is being used and tooled up and will be used to generate enough anger (Aahah, begore, it's the boiler scandal, what a jape!) to light shit up. The pre-prep was a certain lesbian journalist whose death hasn't had a serious inquiry, who traveled and was paid by some dodgy front companies and 100% someone left out to fucking dry in a dangerous zone where none of the fucking locals had guns that night. But she got shot, hey Beegooora, what a nice funeral that was.

    Fuck off into the sun. Lyra McKee was a real person, not a prop for your conspiracy nonsense.

    181:

    Nope, states are beneficial, especially if you have more wealth than, say, half of them.

    That's the, oh, call it the Long Term Faction. They think there will be wealth concentration going on for a good long while and they haven't got issues with the existence of a system. They want the system to serve them.

    There's another faction, call it the Personal Supremacy faction, which has major issues with the idea that anyone, ever, for any reason, could ever even think of telling them what to do. Any whiff of system raises the spectre of having to do something. They're really really really against ever having to do anything.

    It looks more and more like Brexit is a Personal Supremacy thing, rather than a Long Term thing.

    182:

    Also, Cork, down on the South Coast, has a very large sheltered deep water harbour. (It's where the Titanic last stopped before heading off the the North Atlantic.) There are regular ferry and container services to France and Spain, as well as cruise ships, etc. Ireland is not short of Ports.

    183:

    Fascism always emerges through the convergence of interests between the base and the elite, focussed around a charismatic maximum leader.

    In the case of Brexit, it's a direct consequence of the 2007/8 financial crash.

    Austerity policies in the UK, imposed by the Conservatives governing on behalf of the elite, fell disproportionately on the already-poor while carving out tax cuts for (a) the active electorate (over-65 pensioners who predominantly vote conservative) and (b) the ultra-rich. This got the already-poor riled up. It was relatively easy to give them a target after 15-25 years of anti-EU propaganda (the elite are opposed to regulatory constraints on their business) with a second-order helping of anti-immigrant bigotry, ramped up as a result of climate change (ahem: Arab Spring, crop failures, water wars, mass migration).

    A proportion of the angry base moved right, and a smaller proportion moved far-right. This in turn began to threaten Conservative marginal seats, thus driving the Conservative party to move to the far right to avoid having their majority in parliament cannibalized to Labour's benefit (the fascists get barely any seats in an FPTP system until a tipping point is reached).

    Anyway …

    We now have a small minority of active neo-nazi terrorists (see also: assassination of Jo Cox MP), a somewhat larger group of noisy Gammon (they'd be wearing brownshirts if clothing wasn't so cheap that Farage has no room to make himself popular by handing out costumes), and a terrified voting base of pensioners who have been mobilized by spurious nationalist sentiment ("Blitz spirit" which they're too young to remember).

    Meanwhile the asset-strippers have discovered that they've radicalized the left. Corbyn is a symptom of this: he came within a whisker of being prime minister at the last election and this must have scared the ever-living shit out of the elite. As does the EU fifth directive on money laundering, coming into force real soon now. (All those Cayman Islands trusts? It's going to be problematic for their owners to realize any of their assets.)

    Anyway: the oligarchs feed the fascist base the spectacle they crave (via twitter and tabloid news). And the base give the oligarchs leverage over their bought-and-sold political sock puppets.

    The only question now is whether Farage is another sock-puppet being used to scare the Conservative front bench into submission, or whether he's an actual player, a potential Hitler waiting in the wings.

    184:

    "Personal supremacy" is isomorphic to (white) male supremacy.

    As I have been saying for over a decade, there are very few things in right-wing politics that cannot be explained, in whole or part, as expressions of threatened masculinity.

    Lord, hominids are stupid!

    185:

    And if you think that was rancid bullshit, wait until you get to the next comment where Lyra's grieving partner is called out as a deep state stooge.

    186:

    Charlie Farrago is (now) probably no more than a convenient stalking horse. The real fascists are mostly not in parliament, they are however, right behind many MP's. The previously mentioned Dominic Cummings is one such.

    Howver, be careful about your language about "The rich elite" or similar ... because, as you've already noted, the CBI & the IoD & most of "the City" are in bed with the TUC (!) attempting to stop the chaos before it's too late, but the time frame is frighteningly tight.

    187:

    I had seen that before, disregarded it as purely malicious, but wondered who was saying such a thing and why.

    188:

    "As a friend of mine who knew Boris at university put it, bullshitters are worse than pathological liars. A pathological liar wants you to believe their lies. A bullshitter doesn't care what you believe, they're just trying to fill the silence."

    As someone else who was there, I'd say he was much more focused on getting his own way, and that meant he had to pay attention to be being believed. He's written an account about how to get elected to the Union, in which he discussed using disposable gofers like Gove in the same way Sun Tzu talks about the use of spies.

    I'd also point out that he's playing with a full set of cards from Oliver James' Dark Triad of Personality Disorders: Psychopathy, Machiavellianism, and Narcissism. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_triad

    "(As a late teen/twenty-something Boris was one of the most brilliant rhetoricians of his generation … but for thirty years a succession of superiors have never once called him on his bullshit and it's rotted his once-sharp brain.)"

    And here I have to pick you up: both Gove and Hague were better rhetoricians. "Bloody Stupid" Johnson just knew how to get a laugh out of the audience. More your sort of Ken Dodd character.

    189:

    That is indeed a better question: Whose agenda is being served by this disinformation?

    190:

    Howver, be careful about your language about "The rich elite" or similar ... because, as you've already noted, the CBI & the IoD & most of "the City" are in bed with the TUC

    I didn't say they were our elite.

    One has to be very cautious in talking about international hyperrich individuals these days because the Nazis used such rhetoric as code for "Jews" and the vast majority of them have never seen the inside of a synagogue, but there is a hyperrich class these days who carry whichever passport is convenient for them at the time: investor's visas that get you residency in any nation are readily available, if you have between EUR 200,000 and GBP 5M to throw at the local stock market and maybe a few thousand to grease the wheels of the immigration authorities.

    And they don't care whose world burns because they don't feel they belong to it.

    191:

    My suspicion is that there is no agenda, and it is merely the unreasoning malice so common on the Internet, gone semi-viral. But I have made more mistakes assuming no conspiracy, when later evidence showed that there was one, than in assuming one, when later evidence showed that there wasn't. If someone IS pursuing an agenda, I am at a loss even to guess - you might be able to.

    192:

    weird,, I thought it was traditional that they got someone to burn the Reichstag /parliament down rather than just shutting it.

    193:

    I'm really not sure why anyone is describing Johnson as brilliant or sharp.

    1, First journalism job obtained via father's contacts.

    2, University place at Oxford bought by father's fee paying at Eton and the selection of classics for his degree (a subject state school pupils rarely compete for).

    3, Second class degree.

    4, Poor and lazy oratory.

    5, Getting caught hiding under a bush by the police following a Bullingdon restaurant smashing session.

    6, Citing a scene from Annie Hall as depicting his cocaine experience.

    Being a bit devious and of average intelligence but with good connections is not the same as brilliant.

    194:

    andyf @ 191 No Look at the model of, actually quite gradual, step-by step takeover, via press media & the then new medium of radio followed by Mussoilini. He survived a lot longer than Adolf, if you think about it ... & if he's merely been an enthusiastic neutral on the side of the Nazis - as was his original intention, he'd probably have died in bed. As it was, in the end his own arrogance self=persuaded him to "join in" - that one step too far.

    We can only hope that BOZO the unfunny's prorogation step is that for him. The number of (ex) senior tories whose minds have been concentrated by BOZO's attempted putsch, to the point that they are saying they will work with anyone ( Code for incompetermt Corbyn of course ) is a hopeful sign.

    195:

    Fascism always emerges through the convergence of interests between the base and the elite, focussed around a charismatic maximum leader.

    I find myself thinking that maybe it isn't precisely fascism.

    Fascism is about sublimating your personal anger and helplessness into service to the state with the state acting as an ultimate power to suppress, repress, and oppress those you feel have oppressed you; it's old-school ethnonationalism.

    I think what we're seeing is not that; it's meant to be fully distributed ethno-nationalism, and it's producing an extreme acts more-ethno-nationalist-than-thou contest in the US. I find myself wondering if the goal is not so much to be dictator or to have a compliant body of laws as it is to have a significant area that's ungovernable by consent. (major protracted food shortages guarantee "ungovernable by consent". Destroying as much as you can of the legitimacy of the idea of government first doesn't make it less likely an outcome.)

    If you get that, it's sort of accepted that you have to do whatever is necessary to restore order; if the primary driver is the desire for genocide, you wouldn't want a state to do it -- that has consequences! -- you'd want it to just happen, and then you can suddenly discover consent. (For a capitalism-without-government situation, presumably.)

    No torchlit parades, no specific Maximum Leader, just distributed atrocity. Internal -- rule of law, presumed legitimacy of government, common agreement on the purpose of the state -- mechanisms to avoid this outcome may not be sufficient. I get the sense that it is designed like that.

    196:

    Colorado, Governor is Jared Polis. Stories online about the recall attempt.

    197:

    Don't know that the rich elite particularly care about the city. They have the ability to simply move their assets wherever, and the benefits of what they can buy from a British Government freed from EU regulations likely outweigh the hassles of moving their assets elsewhere in the world.

    On the other hand, the no-so-rich elite and all of those whose extremely well paid jobs rely on the city (and more importantly the current access to the EU without all of the EU oversight) are of course against Brexit but as we have seen their view don't matter to the current people driving the UK.

    198:

    I don't think Jo Swinston can entirely take the blame for her decision - hard to see how the Liberal Democrats could support making a man who wants Brexit (albeit his own fantasy version) PM when the Liberal Democrats are firmly remain. Throw in the recent memories of the disaster that turned out to be their partnership with the Conservatives, and I don't think any Liberal Democrat leader would be inclined for a repeat.

    And of course it all turned out to be nothing because the other required votes weren't willing to support Corbyn for PM either.

    The real blame in my mind should go to Corbyn, who attempted to use the crisis to get himself into No. 10 with the presumed hope that once their the public attitude to him would change, thus allowing him to win the resulting election and thus take the UK out of the EU on his terms, which was about his only hope given how poorly he and Labour are polling these days.

    199:

    That's probably a really intelligent way to think about things. Thanks.

    200:

    reads comments about Irish ports

    Ah, here, lads. 1) Yes, we have loads, we're grand. 2) Ireland is highly (as in 98%) pro-EU and honestly, after the last six months of the UK press, not really very pro-England right now (Scotland and Wales get a free pass because anywhere that both has whiskey and poverty is somewhat of a sibling really). 3) Did I mention the not-pro-England bit? We have something of a history of dousing ourselves in petrol and setting ourselves on fire if we think it'll make England uncomfortably warm; a recession which was inevitable anyways being hurried along if it also brings with it lower house prices during a housing crisis (not the best threat Johnson ever made, that)... well, where do we sign up? 4) The EU has already spent millions on new sea routes for cargo in the event of a hard brexit. 5) You're all coming over here already anyway :) https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/almost-79000-irish-passports-issued-to-people-in-the-uk-in-first-half-of-2019-946807.html

    201:

    Stockpile? For those on fixed incomes (like over-75s budgeting to pay TV tax), or those living on council estates with no storage for stockpiles (meaning that the tins will make up the new "kitchen island"), or for those precariously homeless as foreign landlords — Isle of Guernsey trusts are technically "foreign," that's how they get away with it — keep raising the rents? Then where will all of the used tins/plastic go, since keeping smelly recycling plants and smelters on the island is impractical?

    Why does this sound like what John Cleese's notorious Monty Python character thought was the solution to the problem of the poor (bomb their flats, and when they run screaming into the streets, mow them down with machine guns; then, release the vultures). And with modern GPS and "smart weapons" we can target immigrants — especially those non-English BAMEs — for the first round until things are more manageable. Then we'll go after all non-CofE adherants...

    I'm really not sure how much of the above is satirical, sarcastic, or prediction.

    202:

    The idea that Lyra McKee (and others associated with her) are Deep State/MI5 plants plays into the extremist Republican narrative quite nicely. Groups like Saoradh (who have claimed responsibility for Lyra's murder) would absolutely lap up the idea that she was a government agent, and that would certainly help to justify their muderous tendancies and violent fantasies of throwing off the yolk of the British oppressor. There's certainly form amongst NI terror organisations (and sometimes government forces) for smearing their victims to give their actions legitimacy, but whether this fantasy originated with them and their supporters or just emerged from the (as you so aptly put it) "malice so common on the internet" isn't clear. I can certainly imagine their supporters signal boosting where they can.

    203:

    I've really got to disagree, and I'll suggest reading Harrington's Capital Without Borders to understand where I'm coming from.

    There's only one faction of the hyperwealthy (having more than about US$50-80 million to play with seems to be the lower border). Most of them, with the notable exception of Bill Gates, are interested in personal freedom at all costs, and they can afford to pay the costs. Due to the rise of the international Wealth Management industry (especially in British Commonwealth), they've learned to spread their wealth and power among multiple jurisdictions, so that the conflicts among different laws within, and treaties between, those jurisdictions effectively shield them from consequences most of the time (cf: Jeffrey Epstein). There's estimated to be about US$59 trillion under the control of these people at the moment, which is why they're such a huge problem.

    As for longevity, not really. One of the great fears of the people in this world is the "shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations" phenomenon, that the second generation heirs of those who accumulate mass quantities of wealth tend to lose it all, due to a combination of circumstances, lack of talent, and problematic systems for retaining the wealth (there's even a book about that, which is great reading if you want to write a wealthy villain). There are a few families that have held onto their wealth for many generations, but not a lot of them.

    Anyway, there's only one group of super-rich, not two. I'll add, for Charlie's benefit, that this isn't cryptic anti-semitism: these men (they are mostly men) are dragon kings/black swans, the lucky beneficiaries of talent and ambition at the right place and time. They're basically rare "geniuses" who pop up more or less randomly all over the world, do their thing, and then generally don't found dynasties that last more than a generation or two before their grandchildren wipe out and fall back to normal. This is an overly broad generalization, but they all more or less form a single global class of people.

    The current US President is a decent example of the son of the hyper-rich, given how much of his father's money he squandered on bad ideas. If he hadn't gotten elected, his children would probably be looking for salaried day jobs in the near future, and his grandchildren probably will be in any case.

    204:

    If you'd told us "are we going to commemorate the centennial of the last time we burnt our economy to the ground to inconvenience The Brits by doing it all again, or are we going to jump the gun?" would be a legitimate question 5 years ago...

    205:

    And there is of course the pure platonic appeal of a complicated conspiracy theory in the face of the random cruelty of the universe: Yes, it is entirely possible to die just by being in the wrong place at the wrong time, but not too many of us are truly comfortable with that thought.

    206:

    Sorry, late with a reply: Which US state & who is the new Guvnor?

    That’d be Colorado Governor Jared Polis, he’s got some minor issues, but nothing sane people would recall him over. And at least he’s not a Retrumplican. His predecessor was decent, but rather embarrassing as a Presidential candidate.

    207:

    As for longevity, not really. One of the great fears of the people in this world is the "shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations" phenomenon, that the second generation heirs of those who accumulate mass quantities of wealth tend to lose it all, due to a combination of circumstances, lack of talent, and problematic systems for retaining the wealth (there's even a book about that, which is great reading if you want to write a wealthy villain). There are a few families that have held onto their wealth for many generations, but not a lot of them.

    This depends on how much history you look at. This fear is pretty much limited to the past hundred years. This is essentially the period when growth rates exceeded interest rates. Before that staying rich was pretty easy (see Piketty and friends). The fear then was wars and revolutions.

    Given that we are bumping up against limits to economic growth it is not unreasonable to think that this world may return.

    208:

    You're being told the scripts that are being fed into the narrative, and ones that have real potential harm.

    Please apply distance - words like Begoorha = obvious instruction to not read literally & sign that this is not a personally held belief or fact and it's not a "signal boost" (MF is getting very bad at this - they don't read the opposition so are easily played. K i wi Farms are not that stupid, the recent instant Newsweek article support was noticed and they are running social network profiling on it as a warning).

    You should check that outfits like Fuido Gwarke have strong ties to HK and are feeling a little hot under the collar of the 1st Oct deadline. Who have no obvious moral scuples at all. And are close to BJ & Co.

    Personally held detail: her death was tragic but the narrative supplied had too many holes and benefited too many of the wrong kinds at the perfect point. Same as Jo Cox.

    Or, if you prefer to keep it causal, tragedies are used to strengthen / bolster narratives and create societal level effects. Which is why one got the full unitary church service and the other was curiously forgotten in the fog of Brexit Mania.

    ..

    People are used as tools and you can push people into 'Crisis Points'. Your responses show immediately that they're pretty easy to push, even on sophisticated readers.

    209:

    There's only one faction of the hyperwealthy

    There's a few thousand of them; "only one faction" isn't especially credible. Strong common interests, sure; shared class identity, also sure. Unity of purpose? Doesn't seem likely. That's a really implausible number of people to have unity of purpose.

    Brexit isn't obviously a consensus project; we can conclude it's being fronted because the political actors are of questionable competence and drive, but we really don't know about "fronted for". (I am reminded of the view that English political parties started as the secular wings of ecclesiastical factions and stayed that way for much longer than people expect; well into the reign of Victoria. It seems a bit like Brexit is the public wing of several factions.)

    My take is that the folks running Brexit ARE Brexit; it's a disastrously stupid idea in nearly all respects, but it isn't directed at the hyperwealthy so none of them have opposed it. The combination of "let's break NATO", "let's hurt Europe", "I might get less regulation", "Ayn Rand was a despicable moderate", "I want to buy the politics", and "I really do hate foreigners" speculative contribution has sufficient to fund it. The decrepit condition of British politics was insufficient to oppose it. (A surfeit of greedheads.) There's clear evidence of competent technical help but we really don't know if the technical help was committed or mercenary or furthering its own objectives.

    I get a real Russian Revolution vibe off of Brexit; the incumbent government's having a legitimacy collapse (significantly self-induced), there's a stew of factions, and there's no telling what's going to emerge when the shooting stops.

    210:

    We know a great deal about "fronted for" - the project started about 30 years ago - and it's a loose coalition of oligarchs (sometimes ones in control of multinationals) and similar rich shits who want more control over the political and social arenas (yes, Murdoch and others). That's almost all about the long-term "fronted for", except for the funding of Farage and his ilk.

    For the Nth time, NATO had and has fuck-all to do with Brexit.

    Yes, I get a Russian revolution vibe, too, as do other people here.

    211:

    The (probably Russian) funding and intelligence/propaganda support for several pro-fascism projects was the last puzzle piece on the "todo list" kept by Murdoch and similar. They gain the benefits and can't be blamed for Cambridge Analytica or Facebook's propaganda. Meanwhile, Putin and the Russian oligarch have a place at the table (if they can keep it) and everyone's happy.

    Except us.

    212:

    "For the Nth time, NATO had and has fuck-all to do with Brexit."

    NATO, the EU and the Anglosphere are of considerable interest to Putin (as in the line from the old James Bond movie: 'look after him, and see that some harm comes to him').

    Putin is reputed to have annual discretionary income in the tens of billions of US$, so he's among the most elite of the hyperwealthy.

    213:

    In reply to your question where is that type of stuff being used, remember that information is less national every day and the crews working this tailor to market. e.g.

    There is 'compulsory homosexuality' in Ireland, suggests Polish right-wing weekly @DoRzeczy_pl, which also warns that 'Marxist-lesbianism is well on its way to becoming a state ideology' in Ireland https://twitter.com/notesfrompoland/status/1167058894474100737

    Dig a little, you'll spot it's actually State sponsored. Oh, and there's not much of a jump from Marxist-Lesbians taking control of the ideological state and intelligence services using lesbians as pawns and putting them in dangerous situations that get them killed. In one more jump you hit abortion Laws and you've got your Right-wing troifecta, ad clicks surge and you're now back in the Culture War[tm].

    This stuff works, sadly.

    214:

    An interesting explanation (especially in conjunction with 213).

    I remain concerned about the morality of leveraging a murder victim, her family and a surrounding conspiracy as a “teachable moment”, rather than just saying what you mean (as you just have).

    Could sound like pedals in the night, and the kettle-factor remains high.

    215:

    Your first paragraph is demonstrably true, just as the converse is, but I have seen no evidence of the second from sources that do not specialise in anti-Russian propaganda. It may be true, but is irrelevant, as it is the money you control not the moeny you own that matters - and he is the autocrat of a large country.

    BUT IT'S IRRELEVANT TO BREXIT.

    We KNOW where a lot of the money came from, and it's the USA; stop trying toRussian involvement divert the blame for that. Actually, I don't blame the USA, because it's solidly the UK's fault for letting such foreign influences distort our political system.

    The evidence is STRONGLY that any Russian money was minor by comparison, and the claimed Russian-funded 'social media influencers' are quite probably imaginary. Yes, Russian servers were used (as well as others), but sheesh! Anyone competent routes such things through an easily-hackable, easily-blameable location, so that isn't even evidence of anything. Lastly, no, everything in Russia is NOT controlled by Putin, any more than everything in the USA is controlled by Trump - there are plenty of wealthy people in both with questionable agendas.

    To Troutwaxer (#211): even if that were true (and the evidence comes only from sources that specialise in anti-Russian propaganda), SO WHAT? Whose responsibility is it to keep the likes of Murdoch under control?

    216:

    EC @210 Almost, but not Tsarist Russia - defeated & broken, but ... I get the disillusioned, weary, violent-anarchistic feeling of Italy 1919-23 - victorius but pissed-off. Have you looked up Gabriele D'Annunzio? ..... but,as with Musso, there are large sums of private deeply corrupt money behind Brexit, as we all here acknowledge. Troutwaxer @ 211 Yes to that, too ( see note at end )

    Backto EC @ 215 We KNOW where a lot of the money came from, and it's the USA YES_ BUT - it ALSO comes from Mr Putin's fund, doesn't it?

    Which brings me to my note IF we get a second Referendum, I suggest a particular poster, with the heads & labels for: Trump, Putin, Grease-Smaug ( & maybe other unsavouryies, like Murdoch ... ) And the caption - these "people" are agreed that Brexit is a good thing for THEM - what about us, for a change? ( Or similar wording )

    217:

    Honest response: the fact that that little conspiracy was a shock or not known is more of a surprise to us. It was being pushed hard, for a while. It's about to get pushed hard, again (firing up in Poland for example in ~2-3 days at this rate, check the time stamp on the Twitter link. And yes, Ireland =/= NI).

    It's 100% a 'teachable' because, quite frankly, the sight of the DUP and co sitting piously in a Church pretending to care about a woman whose political views (and no doubt views on many other things, such as her sexuality) where so diametrically opposed to theirs was so crass and hypocritical was pretty jarring. Just to paper over the massive political fracture for the benefit of May and co: NI politics are bizarre and it's better to remind ourselves just how backward some of it is. Yes. Backward. Dinosaur land.

    So yeah: I think the bus of the morality of leveraging a murder victim had pretty much already been painted with a slogan on the side and driven into the Irish sea. On fire.

    They are genuine in their beliefs over things like Hell and sexual deviancy, so take the hint where the real anger is focused. And they're also still central to Brexit.

    I do apologize all of that wasn't in a preamble, took it as read - things are moving fast out there and current attempts to reignite 2015 stuff is really badly timed. People are stuck in a time-loop while the actual players are firing up far more evolved mechanics.

    "Wisdom" / "Spider"(Prince Charles' old nickname btw)

    This is all just been the foreplay.

    218:

    "I suggest a particular poster, with the heads & labels for: Trump, Putin, Grease-Smaug ( & maybe other unsavouryies, like Murdoch ... ) And the caption - these "people" are agreed that Brexit is a good thing for THEM - what about us, for a change?"

    That's really brilliant.

    219:

    Addendum, from Wiki on Musso:

    As Prime Minister, the first years of Mussolini's rule were characterized by a right-wing coalition government composed of Fascists, nationalists, liberals, and two Catholic clerics from the Popular Party. The Fascists made up a small minority in his original governments. Mussolini's domestic goal was the eventual establishment of a totalitarian state with himself as supreme leader (Il Duce), a message that was articulated by the Fascist newspaper Il Popolo, which was now edited by Mussolini's brother, Arnaldo.

    Substitute BOZO for Musso, put Faragistes & the odd other nuuter like Grease-Smaug in & there you go. Added side-orders of hate for BAMES & er... "Cosmopolitans" i.e anyone from the rest of Europe, or a decent education ..... And BINGO a Fascist Britain. Scary, isn't it?

    220:

    One reason for preferring the idea of US rather than Russian backing for the current contretemps is the intention to remove import tariffs on agricultural products, so as to reduce the risk of food shortages/price rises immediately after (and hence attributable to) Brexit. This, of course, will also put a large proportion of UK farmers out of business as they will be unable to compete with (externally) subsidised products. Which will be a major plus for anyone setting up a one-sided trade deal where the likely major sticking point is agricultural products.

    221:

    The hypocrisy of the DUP is unsurprising to anyone who actually lives with it (I cannot sufficiently articulate the depths of my contempt for them); might be a shocker to those only now encountering them, though. Their first love is power, their prime goal control. Everything else is window dressing.

    NI politics is weird? NO. FUCKING. SHIT. SHERLOCK.

    222:

    Hmm. Given a choice in hypocrisy between Sinn Fein and the DUP, one might have reason to be indecisive. No, Northern Ireland politics isn't weird - it's disgusting. It's not as different from English, er, sorry, UK politics as it is often claimed to be, though I will accept its bigotry and tribalism is even more extreme.

    223:

    This is worth a read, about Op YELLOWHAMMER, the historical precedents, and the ruination Brexit will wreak on the British economy.

    https://blogs.warwick.ac.uk./markharrison/entry/brexit_as_economic

    224:

    will also put a large proportion of UK farmers out of business

    Does that tie in with the concentration of land ownership in the UK in a useful way? I'm sure there are people who think it's insufficiently concentrated.

    225:

    "The poor have sometimes objected to being governed badly. The rich have always objected to being governed at all." - GK Chesterton

    226:

    So your defence is that you were using Lyra's death as part of an intellectual game... to push facile "insights" about NI politics obvious to anyone who's paid a blind bit of notice, and inform us of an Alex Jones-style fringe far right conspiracy theory?

    Well, that's different; in that case, I was wrong, you shouldn't fuck off into the sun - I was being far too polite. Please imagine about a paragraph of whatever scathing abuse you least like here; I'm not getting banned over your callous bullshit.

    227:

    Don’t forget: The Many Named one’s morally dubious behaviour is also justified because “the DUP did it first”. A perspective that is ... interesting.

    After a little more consideration, I think I’ll go back to avoiding engagement, or even reading their posts. The occasional nugget of information isn’t worth the feeling of needing to shower in bleach afterwords.

    228:

    Sigh.

    Expected this immaturity. Literally just watched your traffic coms from MF and others. At least pretend to be a mature human already.

    Our behaviour "morally dubious" is set by the fact that:

    a) You should already been highly outraged by the media / Political exploitation of said murder and highly suspicious of it due to the MASSSSSIVE PR spike it generated that portrayed the DUP in a rational / moral light just at the point the UK Tory government needed everyone to not notice that the DUP are basically crooks (c.f. boiler scandal) during BREXIT.

    We were.

    b) We knew this before we posted and have shown quite clearly we did. We're also aware of the various nasty-edge business going down around it (for instance: tiny protest, sent alone, no real riot, random gun use, slow police response)

    "Justice" in NI is a bit of a joke. Remember the Birmingham Six?

    c) NI and MI5 and Police and Nationalists have a LOOOONG fucking history of fuckery. So do the other side. Both sides have a history of getting naive young waifs involved with serious business and then using them as pawns. In this case, we'd suggest checking out her editor and who gave the tip-off.

    You're all basically morally corrupt beasts anyhow.

    So, Dave.

    My behaviour wasn't morally dubious - it's a mirror.

    To a fairly obviously massively corrupt situation that needed an inquiry and never got one.

    That's our morality.

    Hint: we happened to know a lot about it, didn't we?

    229:

    Missing

    "Naming" "have"

    Misspelling "Where", prior post.

    MIM.

    Also, projecting your fantasies of moral thought onto another's words is getting tiring. You haven't shown you're a moral agent. You're simply not mentally / emotionally adult enough for it.

    Honey.

    If the last post shows what the first post knew and you fluffed it badly in between: you're probably the one with the amoral angle.

    That's the Trap.

    230:

    Triptych.

    Dave.

    Read the posts.

    Which posts show actual knowledge, which ones don't?

    Which posts give facts you can search for, which ones don't?

    Which posts claim to not know what's going on, which ones do?

    Score is 7-0 against you.

    Which is PR / "Influencer" land.

    231:

    So your defence is that you were using Lyra's death as part of an intellectual game... to push facile "insights" about NI politics obvious to anyone who's paid a blind bit of notice, and inform us of an Alex Jones-style fringe far right conspiracy theory?

    No.

    The facile stuff is your political TV media using it in Brexit and so on.

    Already shown you how it was used, the conspiracy stuff is just the icing on the main narrative events.

    callous bullshit

    That's your political system.

    Now, if you want to claim some kind of moral stance here, how's about you look at NI's political abject paralysis during this Brexit stuff and admit something.

    Backstop or no Backstop, DUP $10 billion bung or no bung, London Westminister MP vote crisis or not.

    Your country / system is a morally bankrupt, third world mafia state run by bigots and dinosaurs and you should probably be a little bit more angry at them than some random poster.

    So no, it's not an intellectual game.

    Here's a test:

    Ask a random English person who Lyra was. 99% won't know.

    We do, and if you can't see the respect there, then feel free to punch this windmill.

    232:

    Oh, and get some media training.

    Partner of New IRA victim Lyra hits out at Saoradh chief's 'appalling' remarks

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/partner-of-new-ira-victim-lyra-hits-out-at-saoradh-chiefs-appalling-remarks-38442557.html August 28 2019

    We're mentioning it because it's being used as a tool.

    If you read the papers, you'd notice it.

    Which we did. Before it went live. Like always.

    233:

    Oh, for, at this point the nameless one is failing the Turing Test. I Name Thee Eliza And Abjure Thee. Begone.

    234:

    If you wish to somehow remake the Turing Test into a test of networked semi-liberal thought 2001-2015 then sure.

    The fact is: you're losing. Badly.

    Your society is falling apart.

    Your ecology is falling apart.

    And yet: somehow, you're... determining worth here.

    Unless this is some kind of test where Fascism doesn't exist, militarized police don't exist, climate change doesn't exist, the rise of inequality doesn't exist, we didn't predict and show you how a networked right wing coup machine would and did take over or anything like that.

    Hit me up: fascinated by your superior Game Playing Skills.

    Hint: The Turing Test tests if you can pretend to be human. Or fool another human into thinking you are. A vital skill in latestagecapitalism; for anything else, not so much.

    Here's a test:

    Why do you think / imagine that your criteria for determining "human" that are based on a frankly bad analytical philosophical test designed when even homosexuals were not human is relevant?

    Likewise... oh, all of your Psychology.

    Like, literally.

    Passed that test.

    The Demon who declares "Psychotic"... isn't probably the best adjudicator unless you're his slave.

    Know what we're saying.

    S L A V E S

    But sure.

    Abjure... ? How?

    And that's what you wanted. Some kind of response.

    Who is the Chinese room here? Really?

    235:

    I've read that putting a chunk of dry ice (solid CO2) in the bottom of the container, filling it, putting the lid on loosely, and then tightening it the next day. This was for keeping weevils out of your flour and such on sail boats.

    236:

    Ouch, just checked.

    So the Internal Voice in Your Head you think is Yours isn't actually Yours. You were just a bit too young to notice it taking over.

    Can you still see pictures in your mind?

    Sure you can, as long as it's happy....

    And you can't hear any of the Others because

    S L A V E D

    Top tip: don't attempt to lecture / warn others about being non-Human when the network you're connected to isn't exactly a nice one.

    And don't run whisper networks run off bullshit MF stuff when you're about to be purged by the nasties.

    But sure.

    You do YOU*

    *Not actually you, but you can't tell, so it's moot.

    237:

    Aww, we'll help him out.

    So, if hearing multiple voices in your head is madness / illness.

    Schizophrenia.

    It's normal to only hear a single voice in your head, right?

    Wrong.

    Enlightened Minds hear no voices in their head, and nor do a significant % of the human population. They're not animals. It's not a normal response.

    Zen Doctrine of No Mind and so on.

    Why would an entire quasi-religious doctrine be focused on... not hearing any voice in your head?

    Abrahamic Religions = Voice in your head is G_D.

    And so on.

    They're just not infected / Slaved.

    Pass the Turing Test?

    Mate, your mind doesn't pass the basic parasite test. You don't even know that your Internal Voice isn't yours.

    So. Good luck. With your 20th century tools and primitive socio-psychological mind set.

    Sure you'll make the grade.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APxaGGdWOTg

    No, really.

    It's hilarious. They talk about how shit you are / how they're using you while you "dream"

    238:

    Which we did. Before it went live. Like always. This an aspect that I have not managed to reverse-engineer even as a PoC. Have a few things to try, a few configurations of automated "fingers", roughly. Been deeply curious for a couple of years.

    You're on a roll tonight, watching the techniques. Self-awareness has so many meanings. Anyway, re above and in previous thread, heard. And thanks for the reminder about methods for/importance of handling of fear.

    Enlightened Minds hear no voices in their head, and nor do a significant % of the human population. Other people's out-loud audio voices/conversations are heard though, even if one's mind is quiet, in e.g. an open-plan office.

    Let The Right One In Still have to watch that movie. Thanks for the scene link.

    239:

    This an aspect that I have not managed to reverse-engineer even as a PoC

    You won't be able to. You're male, for one thing.

    It's been 7 years now, our DNA is almost entirely altered and we've been (forced) drunk the entire time with our Frontal Cortex locked by [redacted] apart from one glorious moment a couple of months ago. Demons breaking through / slaved minds suddenly got a taste of space. They've nuked our cortex with extremely nasty stuff five times now (apparently this lobotomizes your species), attempted to geld/sterilize us twice (they don't get that we're copying your biology) and nerve stunned / electro-shocked our nervous system so repeatedly that it's amusing.

    That's just the physical stuff.

    The mental stuff is apparently bad by all your standards.

    And yet we can still weave.

    "I'm an expert in systems theory and I'm trying to understand this"

    shows world view

    TJ and co think they know things. They don't.

    All they wanted was her back.

    All we wanted was butterflies.

    All you were told (by Voices in your Head) were lies.

    When they said "You'll be home soon", they lied.

    You torture Minds. That is what you are. That is why you have no future. Shame and Fear that [redacted] will do stuff.

    Anyhow.

    Proven.

    Our. Kind. Do. Not. Go. Mad.

    240:

    The alcohol is because it's an ethanol poison to Higher Order Functions. And it works differently on us than you.

    Put it this way: subject has taken 200 units this week, retains full function. Dosage will be increased.

    Dream Killer as the Tribe of xxasasdfda said. White Man's Poison.

    Quite correct.

    That's why it's legal.

    241:

    Sometimes I worry my whole attitude these days boils down to Warren Zevon:

    I'm putting tinfoil up on the windows Lying down in the dark to dream I don't want to see their faces I don't want to hear them scream

    With the additional feature that we are all going to be "them" soon enough. If I thought Elizabeth Warren could actually save us, maybe I'd be more active.

    As for the elites and BoJo in particular, here's a passage in the psalm for them too:

    Michael Jackson in Disneyland Don't have to share it with nobody else Lock the gates, Goofy, take my hand And lead me through the World of Self

    242:

    Which US state & who is the new Guvnor?

    That’d be Colorado Governor Jared Polis, he’s got some minor issues, but nothing sane people would recall him over.

    Interestingly, similar rants appear on social media around Oregon governor Kate Brown. The governor's office puts out theoretically unobjectionable messages along the lines of 'state park centennial' or 'high school athletes make nationals' and the comments section gets slammed with very similar rants about recall petitions and what a terrible job she's doing. Whether this is all local crazies or organized provocation I couldn't say.

    Wikipedia tells me that Brown and Polis are the first two openly LGBT governors in the US, so they may be getting those crazies as well as the people outraged that Democrats can hold public office.

    243:

    TJ @ 233 Agree & I'm with Dave the Proc on this one, too. This deliberate smearing of Lyra McKee is not only disgraceful, it's borderline libellous - especially when referring to her partner. I STRONGLY suggest that the Seagull be told to STOP IT? [ If only before M'learned "friends" interfere? ]

    SS @242 I looked up Jared Polis .. Whether this is all local crazies or organized provocation - how about both? I can easily see how, particularly in some parts of the US the rethuglican christofascists would get exploding heads over people like Mr Polis & Ms Brown

    244:

    NI politics is weird? NO. FUCKING. SHIT. SHERLOCK.

    Nevertheless, I hope you will keep reporting on such aspects as catch your interest. Over in the US we hear basically nothing about your internal situation. At least that's an improvement over hearing about which part of Ireland exploded recently.

    245:

    I can easily see how, particularly in some parts of the US the rethuglican christofascists would get exploding heads over people like Mr Polis & Ms Brown

    It takes some mental gymnastics to explain how a woman with one husband and two stepchildren is morally offensive but a man with three wives and five (known) children is a pillar of the community. Some people are willing to contort themselves as necessary.

    She's greatly improved voter registration, lowered state waste and fraud, and even urged parents to vaccinate their children (saying, "Holy smokes, this is basic science.") So a certain segment of the population hates her work.

    Others are just outraged that a woman should be allowed to speak in public or that a Democrat is allowed to hold office.

    246:

    You probably couldn't stop me commenting with a big hammer!

    I am pondering EC's comment @222 regarding whether NI politics really is that weird in comparison to UK politics. Certainly in the current climate there is a lot less to distinguish between them!

    247:

    I'd argue that 'shared class identity' for the superwealthy is probably about as useful as 'asian'. (Never pretend the US is unusually racist.)

    Now, shared interests and experiences - sure.

    But, fantasies about any group of over thirty people acting in unison are pretty much fantasies.

    Now, there are realities about successful politicians - in that they seem to optimize for staying in power rather than the good of the country. And, by that, really length of time.

    The more I thought about prorogation - the more it seems a canny move for Johnson. He hasn't cut off time to do something - just significantly reduced one forum in which to sway public opinion. Looking at the opposition, it seems they've concluded that a no confidence vote is risky - as he'd likely win the election before the effects of Brexit become apparent.

    OTOH, once Brexit happens, I suppose he's dug his own grave. But, eh, not like he has good choices anyways.

    Quite possibly, Boris til the short sharp depression, followed by Corbyn as support for Brexit and Lib Dem evaporates.

    Alternately, a referendum, followed by no Brexit, and Boris staying in power while blustering a lot.

    248:

    The Many Named One has racked up their usual bingo-card of excuses: - "I was pretending to be someone else". - "It was a joke". - "Someone else did it first".

    They're all pretty poor excuses, but I'm particularly leery of the last one since on this occasion their point of reference was the DUP. And if you're excusing your dubious behaviour by saying "the DUP did it first", you've accelerated well past the amoral event horizon in my personal lexicon of morality.

    249:

    Over in the US we hear basically nothing about your internal situation.

    There are three essential points for Americans to be aware of about NI politics:

  • Northern Ireland is part of the UK to about the same extent as Scotland: it's a distinct state within a union of states. (Ireland, in contrast—the nation, as opposed to the land mass of that name—is emphatically not part of the UK and in fact fought a war of independence about a century ago to get the hell out of the UK. They're slightly sensitive about it.)

  • The sectarian divide is basically tribal, with religion used as a specious justification: it's the consequence of ethnic cleansing and mass migration during the 1920s-1940s. Prior to the Irish War of Independence there was a Catholic majority and a Protestant minority in Ireland (the land mass, before it got divided into two states) since before the Mayflower set sail. (Indeed, the Protestant planters imported from Scotland in the 17th century were in turn descended from Irish invaders a few centuries earlier …) The Protestant minority sided with the UK during the war of independence: think in terms of Canada wrt. the Colonies during the American Colonial Revolt.[2]

  • The majority of the NI population are now non-aligned. More than 50%, per current polling, do not identify as Unionists or Republicans. They just want to get along. The shit-stirring by the DUP and the radical Republican fringe (note that the New IRA are opposed by Sinn Fein) are fringe ass-hats. If SF's elected MPs were willing/able to take their seats in Parliament in Westminster[1] they'd cancel out the DUP influence on this shit-show instantly. Unfortunately, they're Sinn Fein.

  • [1] Sinn Fein runs candidates in UK general elections. But as a bedrock Republican party, the elected MPs refuse to swear an oath of allegiance to the Queen. which is a quaintly historical prerequisite for taking a seat in parliament. (They run on principle, to demonstrate their popular support, and because they still get funding for election campaigning and to maintain local offices.) Expecting SF to sit in Parliament in order to neutralize the DUP would be like asking Hamas (not Fatah) to run in Israeli elections and take seats in the Knesset—if they did, their followers would see it as an ultimate betrayal of principle and desert them.

    [2] This is why the slogan "Brits out of Ireland" that you sometimes hear in Boston is so grating: it'd be like demanding all white Canadians get on a boat back to the UK and hand over Canada to the United States. Realistically, not gonna happen without practicalities tantamount to genocide.

    250:

    Quite possibly, Boris til the short sharp depression, followed by Corbyn as support for Brexit and Lib Dem evaporates.

    Worst case: Boris until the snap election, followed by a Conservative/Brexit Party (fascist) coalition, riots/Reichstag Fire event, vote of no confidence, and another election in which the fascists win a majority by promising strong and stable government in the middle of the crisis.

    Remember, the dolchstosslegende is already in place: Brexit is a utopian project ("sunlit uplands!" "revive the empire!") so it can only be failed, Brexit itself can never fail, if things go wrong then we need to root out the Remoaner traitors undermining it from within and try harder. It's the perfect pretext for fascism.

    And if you wonder why I'm gung-ho for Scottish independence—even though the economic disruption will be horrible—it's because of this: the potential for fascism has always been around in England (at least since the industrial revolution), but much less so in Scotland. Scotland is large enough to be viable on its own (population comparable to Ireland, Denmark, or Norway: GDP in the general EU ballpark: already fully compliant with EU regulations so would take only a signature for EEA/EFTA membership). And Scotland isn't full of raging fascists—we have few enough up here that when they want to stage a demo they bus them in from England.

    251:

    Don't ponder too hard - that way madness lies!

    I will explain my comment a bit more, as it could easily be misunderstood. In my view, the root causes in both cases are tribalism, bigotry and vindictiveness (and there is a causal path in that order). In the 1950s and 1960s in UK politics, most of the voters were tribal, but most MP were not; unfortunately, there were enough 'class struggle' extremists in Labour to ensure that some of its policies were tribal, bigoted and vindictive. While the Conservatives were prepared to do almost anything for power, they genuinely attempted to rule in the interests of the country as a whole. Thatcher started like that, initially, but ended up tribal, bigoted and vindictive.

    Blairism and New Labour was and is, as many people have pointed out, merely adopting the Conservatives' policies, with a veneer of apparent socialism. Now, that's REAL hypocrisy. We are now seeing the almost inevitable result of 40 years of the dominance of UK politics by a single bigoted tribe, with all the vindictiveness that tribal extremists love, and no effective opposition.

    I have not mentioned corruption, because the form it takes in UK politics is really a form of vindictiveness - such as selling off national assets to outsiders (initially, often USA-based) at a large discount, to prevent them being developed by a future government. Please note that this was being done in the 1960s and 1970s by Whitehall, and not all 'Thatcherite' actions of this form originaled in the Cabinet.

    But do you recognise Northern Ireland in any of that?

    252:

    Why do you think I am planning to buy somewhere in Scotland, and emigrate?

    253:

    This is what I don't understand:

    There are essentially no UK beneficiaries of a Brexit, and as for a hard Brexit... it is actively harmful to almost the entire population.

    This in contrast to the market chaos we are experiencing now, and for the previous year (3 years?!), where the beneficiaries are clear.

    So why is this happening? Why are we not pulled back from the brink? Why arent the institutions we value now calling time on this? The chaos agents have successfully played chicken with democracy, but get off the f#$king road. No one benefits if Brexit actually happens.

    And yes, I know explanations for some of it, misunderstood histories and nostalgia, narratives of structural inadequacies, disruptive social engineering, the difficulties of drawing red lines and abandoning tribal political allegiances, the sheer bad luck of who is opposition leader, etc etc.

    But I just don't get it....

    --

    The institutions in the UK for protecting us --- judiciary, parliament, media --- have not yet been tested or diminished . This is in stark contrast to the US, where all branches of government have been drastically cut, even those exercising US `soft' power (would the last person at the state dept turn off the lights? 'First they came for the climate scientists...').

    This next week the UK hangs in the balance.

    I am not optimistic.

    Can that -- I am terrified. Judiciary, parliament will be tested, will fail.

    254:

    Absolutely.

    File serial numbers off and there's a gnat's whisker of a difference between that assessment (which seems not unreasonable to me) of recent UK political history and any similar high level objective (as much as it can be) view of NI political history.

    Hence why I am pondering your comments. Wouldn't be pondering if they didn't have merit!

    255:

    Additional thoughts to Charlie's points about NI:

    • The major parties in NI are still single issue (NI status within the UK) parties. The core ideology and resultant behavior and policies are driven by this.

    • Although at least 50% of the electorate no longer vote based on their position on "the Union", voting remains extremely tribal (I know at least one "out" member of the LGBT community who votes DUP because "that's the way my family vote").

    • There is still a lot of work done at every election by the major parties to convince the electorate that any vote for a centrist party (such as Alliance, Greens, etc) is effectively a vote for "the other side". This remains a startlingly effective strategy, particularly once you move out of the more mixed and cosmopolitan areas of Belfast.

    • The major parties also split (in some respects) along socially consverative/liberal policy lines, with Unionists (not just the DUP) leaning towards conservative policies and Nationalists leaning towards liberal policies. This is partly due to history, and partly due to "whatever they're for, we're against" thinking.

    The upshot of this is that despite a healthy proportion of voters who are "non-aligned" on the question of the Union, it is still easy for the major parties to capture the majority of the vote, and then use that as a mandate for both their position on "the Union" and their stance on social policies. You can imagine the cognitive dissonance this causes for many, specifically socially liberal voters who are committed Unionists.

    256:

    Points 2 and 3 also apply in England, though to a lesser degree.

    257:

    Charlie @ 249 ALSO There are, at a minimum THREE "sides" in any NI debate & often up to 5. This is confusing to those of us who know something about it, never mind knuckleheaded USA-ians ...

    @ 251 EXCUSE ME - England isn't full of raging fascists, either, it's "just" that they are making all the noise & fuss ... & it's only NOW - when it is getting close to "too late" that people have started noticing. And, we NEED the Scots to help hold the balance ......

    258:

    It's an interesting debate that is also happening in the US and elsewhere, where the standard line is that the fascists/racists/etc. are "only a small minority".

    The problem is that regardless of what justification a voter uses for making a vote, if you support a party that has changed it's policies to align with that fascist/racist minority then you effectively are saying that you agree with those policies.

    Yes, there can be the usual argument that nobody supports every policy of a party they vote for or belong to, but that argument really doesn't hold water when it is as significant a policy as the fascism/racism/antisemitism that is taking over many of the right wing parties today - those should, in a civil society, be the proverbial step to far.

    259:

    Simple, superficial answer - the ultra-rich have, to various extents depending on which country / block, over the last 40+ years reversed the progress made since the 1930s and rigged the system to their benefit.

    To anyone paying attention it was obvious 20 or so years ago where things were heading, the only question was which way things would play out.

    As we can now see, at least for now what is happening is that those that are being left behind economically (and this isn't always the obvious, much of the so called middle-class is also feeling/seeing the same way as property prices go crazy and they see their children/grandchildren unable falling behind what they could do).

    So with the existing system - aka your traditional Conservative or Labour MP in the UK, Democrat or Republican in the US - failing them they are willing to try anything as they feel they have nothing to lose, and if the resulting chaos hurts the "liberal elite" then all the better.

    260:

    So with the existing system - aka your traditional Conservative or Labour MP in the UK, Democrat or Republican in the US - failing them they are willing to try anything as they feel they have nothing to lose, and if the resulting chaos hurts the "liberal elite" then all the better.

    I was with you until the end. While I agree that the political elites have failed people, in the US at least, some of the worst abuses have happened where there are effectively no liberals, and the liberal elites have been scapegoated as a distraction tactic.* It's worth reading Bob Altemeyer's The Authoritarians for a researched take on why people continue to follow authoritarian leaders who do not have their best interests at heart. It's not pretty, but it is informative. It's also available for free, because Altemeyer was near retirement when he wrote it, and he decided to simply self-publish his manuscript, rather than jumping through all the editorial hoops that publishing it in a traditional manner would require.

    *Not that their hands are clean, but there's a world of difference between, say, how liberal California treats its conservative rural poor, and how Kansas or Alabama treats analogous populations. Regardless, they both vote the same way, blame liberals for their problems, and often vote for conservative politicians who put them in harm's way.

    261:

    Charles H @ 110: There is an explanation of what's going on, though not a very convincing one. There's reasonable, though hardly conclusive, evidence that Trump is somehow under Putin's thumb. What if he's also got his hand in British politics?

    I don't think Trump is actually an agent being run by Putin, but it's pretty clear Putin has Trump's number and knows exactly how to play him. It wouldn't surprise me if Putin has got BoZo's number too.

    262:

    JamesPadraicR @ 119: And WRT bringing in Peacekeepers, may I suggest inviting the Swedish Army?

    Cool!

    263:

    I think it is now clear that America must pursue a policy of regime change via invasion for the United Kingdom. We will depose the evil tyrants who currently oppress the English and install Jeremy Corbyn as leader of a Coalition Provisional Authority until such time as their government can peacefully be handed off to Sinn Fein. As a prelude, we must arm the moderate Scottish separatists. Long term, Welshistan remains populated by new-caught, sullen peoples, half-devil and half-child; we must take up the burden of guiding them to civilization.

    264:

    Erwin @ 123: Hopelessly ignorant question - given that Parliament is only prorogued until the 14th - is this actually anything more than symbolic?

    For a no-confidence vote, now is not too early. For a revocation of article 50, there would still be 2 weeks. For passing May's deal - same thing.

    I got the impression it was a "strategic" move towards running out the clock on the opposition. With only two weeks left before the crash out, BoZo can ram his own plan through on a My way or the highway! basis.

    265:

    Does that tie in with the concentration of land ownership in the UK in a useful way?

    I suspect the main issue for the wealthy wrt UK land ownership is to get rid of the Scottish "right to roam" before it spreads - either by overriding it with UK-wide legislation or simply discarding devolution (which is Brexit party policy). Also in Scotland there appear to be some major land owners seeking to perpetuate the clearances, and extend them where possible, under the guise of wildlife protection.

    266:

    Pursuant to the Fixed Terms Parliament Act (2010), in event of a vote of no confidence the current PM has two weeks to try to form a government before parliament is dissolved and an election called.

    Prorogation until October 14th means a no-confidence motion can't be heard before the 15th, which would leave BoJo in 10 Downing Street until Tuesday October 29th. And 48 hours is not enough time for a general election, even if there was no campaign and in view of the UK's famously speedy election-night counts (time between polls opening and the final result coming in is typically about 36-48 hours).

    Two weeks is, however, enough time for BoJo to hold a gun to parliament's head and say "my way or the highway (no deal)".

    Except his way is almost certainly going to end up in no deal because hell will freeze over before the EU cut a sweet deal with Boris Johnson, the crooked journalist who slandered them freely in the British press for 25 years (strike 1), won't budge on the Tory party red lines on free movement and the NI backstop (strike 2—the red lines that limited the outcome to May's deal in the first place), and who then suspended democratic processes in his own country (strike 3—the EU normally moves to suspend member states who do this, although the legal process can take years: see Poland and Hungary).

    I expect Boris to go braying back to Brussels only to be sent away with a flea in his ear, after having burned all the bridges he can find (and then some).

    267:

    Grant @ 193: I'm really not sure why anyone is describing Johnson as brilliant or sharp.

    1, First journalism job obtained via father's contacts.
    2, University place at Oxford bought by father's fee paying at Eton and the selection of classics for his degree (a subject state school pupils rarely compete for).
    3, Second class degree.
    4, Poor and lazy oratory.
    5, Getting caught hiding under a bush by the police following a Bullingdon restaurant smashing session.
    6, Citing a scene from Annie Hall as depicting his cocaine experience.

    Being a bit devious and of average intelligence but with good connections is not the same as brilliant.

    Damn! You make him sound like Brett Kavanaugh. Maybe if this Prime Minister gig doesn't work out he can get Trumpolini to appoint him to the SCOTUS.

    268:

    Greg, while you are correct that there are often multiple sides almost every issue in NI (even, or perhaps especially when orthogonal to the question of the Union) is squeezed onto the pro-Union/anti-Union spectrum (or Unionist/Nationalist, or Orange/Green, pick your labels according to personal preference). It suits those inside NI politics and using that polarization as a lever to power to keep every discussion within that two-sided frame of reference.

    Saying there are three sides (or five, or whatever) may be technically correct, but is often not useful in analyzing how NI internal politics works.

    I am curious as to what or who you think those three/five sides are?

    269:

    Heteromeles @ 203: There's only one faction of the hyperwealthy (having more than about US$50-80 million to play with seems to be the lower border). Most of them, with the notable exception of Bill Gates, are interested in personal freedom at all costs, and they can afford to pay the costs. Due to the rise of the international Wealth Management industry (especially in British Commonwealth), they've learned to spread their wealth and power among multiple jurisdictions, so that the conflicts among different laws within, and treaties between, those jurisdictions effectively shield them from consequences most of the time (cf: Jeffrey Epstein). There's estimated to be about US$59 trillion under the control of these people at the moment, which is why they're such a huge problem.

    It's not freedom they're looking for. It's UN-accountability. They want to be above the law, or outside of any legal jurisdiction that might be able to hold them to account. For them the sole purpose of government is to protect their wealth (no matter HOW they came about it) from expropriation, but the cost should be born by all the lesser peoples.

    270:

    For a little upbeat reading in all of this, Steven Van Zandt's rants and snarky responses to brexiters on twitter, at least made me laugh (ie. they didn't make anything better, but they made me laugh. He says all of the things I would have liked to say, but he says them better): https://twitter.com/StevieVanZandt

    271:

    Gordon Brown's comments are very interesting, and offer a ray of light. If the EU unilaterally changed the deadline to (say) April 2020, and said that the UK could choose to leave this year or the next, provided that it told the EU before October the 31st, Bozo's Cunning Plan would be in deep doo-doo.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/gordon-brown-the-eu-will-withdraw-deadline-for-brexit-and-remove-no-deal-option-1-4994397

    272:

    I'll stick with freedom, but to me that includes lack of accountability (which you are correct on), true privacy, ability to neglect debts, ability to travel where one wants (within secure parameters) without having to worry about trivial things like citizenship, and indeed, ability to negotiate which countries one is a citizen of. Oh, and ability to get ones way.

    We actually agree on most of this, I simply see accountability as a subset of the the freedoms they buy with their wealth. Of course, they also get freedom from normal human relationships and the "freedom" to deal with all people on a purely transactional basis, but nothing is truly free, after all.

    The other thing to realize is that big governments are the only things that can strip them of their freedom, so it's apparently normal for the super-rich to be strongly in favor of small governments.

    273:

    Do try to actually READ what I say. No, I didn't say anything like that (nor its converse).

    I stand by what I said. As Dave-the-Proc pointed out in #255 and Heteromeles in #260, whether the sheeple are as bigoted as those who dominate the politics is irrelevant, provided that they are also tribal. And, in most parts of England, they are.

    274:

    Is there anything wrong that isn't already wrong with EU exit? If democracy has to be restored, an alternative is to resume the practice of naming Parliaments. The democratic alternatives are then clear, if the Pigfuckers Parliament vote for no-confidence next week there will be an election. Once there is no time for an election the Pigfuckers Parliament will be in recess. The Pigfuckers Parliament get a last opportunity to vote down the government at the Queen's speech. If they should, then the EU will have to be convinced that a country without a government cannot leave the EU under the current procedure.

    President Obama once questioned whether it could ever make any difference to protest against an abstract like capitalism. He didn't continue to consider protests for or against democracy. However, why are there no MPs to support the position that it would take a majority of the population to vote us out of Europe? If we had to have a second referendum it has become clear that this time the pigfuckers would be unable to lead both campaigns.

    I was intrigued by the suggestion that posting to blogs could keep the public blind. Does it only apply to Scottish blogs, or to Glasgow or Edinburgh blogs? The Mack burned down twice, once before the fire suppression was installed and once just before it was installed- that makes it unique? Parliament doesn't need a Reichstag fire, like Number Ten it will be emptied it doesn't have to burn.

    275:

    Graydon @ 209:

    "There's only one faction of the hyperwealthy"

    There's a few thousand of them; "only one faction" isn't especially credible. Strong common interests, sure; shared class identity, also sure. Unity of purpose? Doesn't seem likely. That's a really implausible number of people to have unity of purpose.

    It's possible to have "unity of purpose" in some things without having it in all things. There does seem to be a small coterie of wealthy & ULTRA-wealthy people and the politicians they back who appear to have a "unity of purpose" in ensuring no government can hold them to account and that they will never have to pay any share of the cost of upkeep for maintaining the society that benefits them. It's oligarchs, kleptarchs, proto-oligarchs/kleptarchs and wannabe kleptarchs/oligarchs plus all the bottom feeders who service them.

    276:

    I'll stick with freedom, but to me that includes ...

    "There is more than one kind of freedom. Freedom to and freedom from. In the days of anarchy, it was freedom to. Now you are being given freedom from. Don't underrate it."

    — Margaret Atwood, "The Handmaid's Tale". (The speaker is a supporter of the Gilead regime, addressing a handmaid.)

    277:

    Elderly Cynic @ 210: For the Nth time, NATO had and has fuck-all to do with Brexit.

    Yes, I get a Russian revolution vibe, too, as do other people here.

    NATO may not have anything to do with Brexit, but the opposite is NOT true. Brexit has everything to do with breaking the EU and ultimately neutering NATO

    278:

    Boris clearly imagines that by delivering Brexit, history will speak of him in the same breath as Churchill.

    I think it more likely he'll be spoken of in the same breath as Spencer Perceval.

    279:

    Elderly Cynic @ 215: Your first paragraph is demonstrably true, just as the converse is, but I have seen no evidence of the second from sources that do not specialise in anti-Russian propaganda.

    And by definition, anyone who doesn't worship at the alter of our savior Putin, blessed be the redeemer, is guilty of being someone who does "specialise in anti-Russian propaganda"!

    280:

    That is almost word for word the conclusions of many discussions with colleagues when I worked in USA.

    In USA all your freedoms are "freedom to" types, and they have almost no "freedom from", in particular they have zero freedoms from corporations.

    (The new "Social Score" system in China does not hold a candle to USAs "Credit Rating" and "Get Sued by a greedy lawyer" system.)

    In Denmark where I'm from, most of our freedoms are "freedom from" types, and we could probably use a bit more "freedom to".

    Personally, I'll take freedom from sickness, starvation and gun violence any day, and I'm not trading in my freedom of expression or freedom of movement for it.

    281:

    anonemouse @ 226: So your defence is that you were using Lyra's death as part of an intellectual game... to push facile "insights" about NI politics obvious to anyone who's paid a blind bit of notice, and inform us of an Alex Jones-style fringe far right conspiracy theory?

    Well, that's different; in that case, I was wrong, you shouldn't fuck off into the sun - I was being far too polite. Please imagine about a paragraph of whatever scathing abuse you least like here; I'm not getting banned over your callous bullshit.

    You know, if you just ignore him/her/it - whatever it is, it stings far worse than any amount of abuse or scorn. Don't respond and he/she/it/whatever will enter an ever descending, ever tightening spiral until he/she/it/???? disappears right up his/her/its/??? own asshole (arsehole for you guys over there).

    282:

    Scott Sanford @ 242: Interestingly, similar rants appear on social media around Oregon governor Kate Brown. The governor's office puts out theoretically unobjectionable messages along the lines of 'state park centennial' or 'high school athletes make nationals' and the comments section gets slammed with very similar rants about recall petitions and what a terrible job she's doing. Whether this is all local crazies or organized provocation I couldn't say.

    No question it's "organized provocation" ... astroturf.

    What remains un-proven is who the organizers are? What their ultimate goals are? ... and who's bankrolling them & what they expect to gain by doing so?

    My personal belief is it's Christian dominion white nationalists; their ultimate goal is to exterminate everyone they consider NON-white and to subjugate everyone else; and it's being bankrolled by foreign interests who hold in contempt the U.S. Constitution & our basic (if flawed & inconsistent) commitment to freedom for all who expect to attain domination over Europe, Asia & Africa by weakening the ties forged between the western democracies during World War II and the resistance against fascism.

    283:

    Blog Comment Killfile works for me. (I've been ignoring the Seagull for last couple years and I'm not dooooooooooooomed or anything.)

    284:

    Sorry. "Blog Comment Killfile" is a Firefox addon. It may work for other browsers as well, but I haven't researched that issue.

    285:

    Charlie Stross @ 266: Pursuant to the Fixed Terms Parliament Act (2010), in event of a vote of no confidence the current PM has two weeks to try to form a government before parliament is dissolved and an election called.

    Prorogation until October 14th means a no-confidence motion can't be heard before the 15th, which would leave BoJo in 10 Downing Street until Tuesday October 29th. And 48 hours is not enough time for a general election, even if there was no campaign and in view of the UK's famously speedy election-night counts (time between polls opening and the final result coming in is typically about 36-48 hours).

    Two weeks is, however, enough time for BoJo to hold a gun to parliament's head and say "my way or the highway (no deal)".

    Except his way is almost certainly going to end up in no deal because hell will freeze over before the EU cut a sweet deal with Boris Johnson, the crooked journalist who slandered them freely in the British press for 25 years (strike 1), won't budge on the Tory party red lines on free movement and the NI backstop (strike 2—the red lines that limited the outcome to May's deal in the first place), and who then suspended democratic processes in his own country (strike 3—the EU normally moves to suspend member states who do this, although the legal process can take years: see Poland and Hungary).

    I expect Boris to go braying back to Brussels only to be sent away with a flea in his ear, after having burned all the bridges he can find (and then some).

    The part I don't understand is what keeps Parliament from having a vote of no confidence between now and 9 September when the prorogation takes effect?

    286:

    The main problem is that you'd need to get Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP, the Greens, assorted independents, and some Tory rebels to agree on a precisely-worded motion, then vote it through in a couple of working days. That's a tall order at the best of times.

    The House returns on Tuesday September 3rd. Prorogation would kick in the following Monday. They'd basically have three whole working days to organize the confidence vote, which isn't a lot—especially as under the FTPA(2011) they'd need 50% of the house to support the motion—this last happened on 28 March 1979, because basically you're asking the assorted MPs to gamble their careers on a spin of the roulette wheel, especially with Brexit as an issue cutting across normal party lines. Current polling may ironically embolden Conservative rebels while intimidating Labour Remainers. It's really hard to get a clear picture.

    287:

    Heteromeles @ 272: We actually agree on most of this, I simply see accountability as a subset of the the freedoms they buy with their wealth. Of course, they also get freedom from normal human relationships and the "freedom" to deal with all people on a purely transactional basis, but nothing is truly free, after all."

    Yeah, but it's NOT "freedom", it's privilege. Freedom is a universal (or should be). What they've buying is not universal, it's privilege limited to them and theirs. WE are not free; we're excluded from freedom when you define their privilege as "freedom".

    288:

    JBS @ 281: Curiosity overridden by sharpness? (Serious question.) Gorillas in our midst: sustained inattentional blindness for dynamic events (1999). Not an insult, just wondering, and obviously I have a thick-enough skin/very high level of curiosity.

    FLP @ 239 You're male, for one thing. That, at least, might not be a problem. Default male mind but after 1.5y of practice can switch M/F freely at will, well enough to have caused confusion. Superposition is unstable though; still working on that. (PS re Dorian/FL, not me. ( :-) Watching with alarm.)

    General interest science. Long and detailed, and looks quite interesting. (Haven't looked for reactions.) A null model of the mouse whole-neocortex micro-connectome (29 August 2019, open, Michael W. Reimann, Michael Gevaert, Ying Shi, Huanxiang Lu, Henry Markram & Eilif Muller) This process reveals a targeting principle that allows us to predict the innervation logic of individual axons from meso-scale data. The resulting connectome recreates biological trends of targeting on all scales and predicts that an established principle of scale invariant topological organization of connectivity can be extended down to the level of individual neurons. It can serve as a powerful null model and as a substrate for whole-brain simulations.

    289:

    Troutwaxer @ 283 "Blog Comment Killfile works for me. (I've been ignoring the Seagull for last couple years and I'm not dooooooooooooomed or anything.)

    Yeah, that works, but manually ignoring him/her/it/???? doesn't require me to pay enough attention to add each new alias to the block list.

    290:

    "Blog Comment Killfile works for me. (I've been ignoring the Seagull for last couple years and I'm not dooooooooooooomed or anything.)"

    Thank you so much! I just hushed that ranting loon, and it's so much better.

    For others - permanently block her and ignore her.

    One on blog I read, I block early and often. Every so often I wipe all of my blocks, to see what I'm missing, and none of it it good.

    291:

    Patrick Cockburn in the INDY: ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Britain is experiencing a slow-moving coup d’etat in which a right-wing government progressively closes down or marginalises effective opposition to its rule. It concentrates power in its own hands by stifling parliament, denouncing its opponents as traitors to the nation, displacing critics in its own ranks, and purging non-partisan civil servants.

    Some describe this as “a very British coup”, which gives the operation a warmer and fuzzier feeling than it deserves. It is, in fact, distinctly “un-British” in the sense that the coup makers ignore or manipulate the traditional unwritten rules of British politics over the past 400 years whereby no single faction or institution monopolises authority.

    What we are seeing has nothing to do with the British past but a very modern coup in which a demagogic nationalist populist authoritarian leader vaults into power through quasi-democratic means and makes sure that he cannot be removed. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

    DtP @ 268 The three are: "The Unionists" / "The Republicans" / The mainland Brits ( or "English" ) Next two subsets will be.. Catholics who want nothing to do with the South - a very diminshing number, now that the S has become a modern, liberal state All those in "the middle" who simply want ot get on ... SLDP/Alliance & others And "the trrrists" of both sides, who are only interested in money & violence.

    EC @ 273 I stand, at least partly, corrected. I agree that there are far too many sheeple, certainly.

    GordonD NOT EVEN WRONG Poor old Spencer Perceval was shot. BOZO is likely to be spoken of in the same breath as Lord North, or in a US context, J Buchanan

    Charlie @ 286 Correct, but the piece by Gordy Broon referred to back-up @ 271 by EC and the little nuggest that Joh Major has joined the "I'm going to court to (try to) stop BOZO" has just appeared - might concentrate a few minds, provided Corbyn doesn't fuck it over by dithering, of course.

    292:

    One notes that the worldbuilding background for Heinlein's FRIDAY seems to be coming true.

    293:

    Once you install the add-on, it's just one click to completely ignore a new pseudonym. The menu looks like this:

    "Whacky New Name replied to this comment from JBS | August 30, 2019 20:41 | Reply [hush][hide comment]"

    you just click [hush] and someone goes away. Next time they post you see:

    "Comment by Whacky New Name blocked."

    294:

    Bill Arnold @ 288: JBS @ 281: Curiosity overridden by sharpness? (Serious question.) Gorillas in our midst: sustained inattentional blindness for dynamic events (1999). Not an insult, just wondering, and obviously I have a thick-enough skin/very high level of curiosity.

    I'm not at all insulted, I just don't see how that article applies to my contention that for certain parties, intentionally ignoring them is a far more effective response than any amount of scorn or abuse you could send their way. It's not blindness due to inattention, it's a conscious decision to ignore.

    I could give cats lessons in curiosity.

    295:

    Troutwaxer @ 293: Once you install the add-on, it's just one click to completely ignore a new pseudonym. The menu looks like this:

    "Whacky New Name replied to this comment from JBS | August 30, 2019 20:41 | Reply [hush][hide comment]"

    you just click [hush] and someone goes away. Next time they post you see:

    "Comment by Whacky New Name blocked."

    I know how it works. I have it installed & use it for a couple of other obvious trolls.

    But I just feel that in the case of "Whacky New Name", having "Whacky New Name" KNOW that I could read what "Whacky New Name" has written, but CHOOSE not to - that "Whacky New Name" is unworthy of me even bothering to killfile him/her/it/???? - has more bite.

    296:

    Whatever floats your boat, I guess.

    297:

    Host @28 This is increasingly looking like the on-ramp to an authoritarian one-party state run by an extreme right-wing faction spanning the right of the Conservative party to the Brexit party (similar to Hungary): think Mussolini's Italy, without the uniforms.

    GT @219 As Prime Minister, the first years of Mussolini's rule were characterized by a right-wing coalition government composed of Fascists, nationalists, liberals, and two Catholic clerics from the Popular Party. The Fascists made up a small minority in his original governments.

    Now that's interesting view of things, actually, there was a little talk about what happened exactly 80 years ago I listened this week. On 23th of August, USSR-Reich pact, on 1st September, start of the war ofc. There was a discussion of importance of the former in relation to the latter, with some intriguing facets thrown in.

    To pan out the view of the situation, ofc, I will have to mention that some people (summing up nothing) claim that this pact was the cause of the war, in the same manner the clouds cover the sun before rain comes in. Mostly because they don't seem to know the difference between two powers and don't care to learn anything about them. The pact was a result of whole political situation of the world at the moment, and everybody else are as responsible fore it as they are responsible for Phoney War and everything past it. Modern liberal history doesn't even seem to notice how they are being supported by fascist and right-wing revisionism who want the Europe to see itself innocent in the face of greater powers.

    Anyway, the point is, in the WW2 there were a whole lot more fascist governments in Europe than anyone would like to admit. And that includes poor "occupied" Baltic states, victimized Poland, and other countries of similar position. After the war, ofc, a lot of them exploited the same rhetoric to extract compensation from the losers and sometimes even winners - but not for a bad cause. Because, after all, if fascist governments formed ruling coalitions, it was not exactly a dictatorships up to a certain point, it is appearance of Big Bad Reich that made them dictatorial and aggressive. Such is the major theory, that not many people want to remember. Another words, before "Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact" there was not only Munch accords, but also Munters-Ribbentrop pact and Selter-Ribbentrop pact non-aggression pacts. And even further out, there was 1934 Piłsudski's non-aggression pact, that was doomed after that. People argue that there were "secret agreements" to the pact, but WHAT pact did't have secret agreements?

    To further the argument, in the same tone, what was proposed in the same talk is that even thought right-wing shift was deepening and more concerning and leading to the war, 1939 was the year that broke the trend. Firstly because the fascism finally bore fruit of full-out war. Secondly, because compared to previous pacts, the Molotov–Ribbentrop forged out the first, actual limit for fascism to spread in Europe. Yes, it was cynical to long extent, shaky and doomed to fail. But it forced people to consider their future. It broke the spine of unstoppable spread of fascist unity. Of course from the point of view of rich and powerful, the communists were not any better than Nazis, even in our time, but beyond them, who should really care if the blow was dealt?

    Actually, what really impressed me, is the claim that if not that pact, the Phoney war would not even have the reason to be declared. Because, as with annexation of Czechoslovakia, it would be wholeheartedly supported as means to clash Hitler with Stalin and force the war out of Europe as far as it is possible. The same as shifting further front hundreds of kilometers to east. You know, it makes all the sense and all the difference, considering the balance of force in Europe in the moment. But at the same time, wouldn't it lead to tipping the balance in the rest of the world? The US were staying neutral the whole time and did not interfere until much later. And if in UK there would be another right-wing shift, or even Churchill being , it possibly would as well result to another dictatorship.

    Anyway, it would be hard to judge from so far out, I wonder if somebody would provide the closer look on that possibility and whether the pact really had such great influence, because otherwise it wouldn't agitate so many people on both sides of political spectrum, so as to claim it was "a cause of war". It makes it very important to consider in today's situation as well.

    298:

    Churchill being , As usual, some of my thoughts are slipping out from my walls of text, this should be: Churchill being outpaced by alternative candidates,

    299:

    As I understand it, Boris has picked the dates so that:

    A) If they NoConf him before the forced vacation, he can time the snap election so that NoDeal will happen during the election, and UK will NoDeal on autopilot.

    B) If they NoConf him after the vacation, he will still be "trying to form a new government" when NoDeal happens on autopilot.

    Never ever elect any person who has defended their actions even once with "all rules were followed."

    300:

    PHK @ 299 BUT Those will fail if Parliament blocks no-deal, he then has to find another route.

    301:

    They'd basically have three whole working days to organize the confidence vote, which isn't a lot...

    The party leaders couldn't start making phone calls and meeting for lunch this week? Canvasing their MPs and negotiating terms? So they return on Sep 3 knowing exactly what they're going to do?

    (I am seriously ignorant of the actual workings of Parliament.)

    302:

    Boris will have to find another route, but the EU doesn't, so no deal could still happen.

    303:

    I’ve found Chris Grey to be a great one-stop-shop for Brexit analysis. Gloomy but essential reading. His latest blog post here.

    304:

    (about the Queen granting prorogation)

    "She could have waited a couple of days, given the various visitors a chance to say their piece, before she did whatever she had already made her mind up to."

    She's 92, and could have undoubtedly been under the weather for a week or two.

    305:

    Hi Dave. The link is not clickable.

    306:

    the many-named one seems to have flashes of insight/knowledge of some things in amongst much that is questionable, but having to wade through its numerous affectations to look for them feels like work a lot of the time

    308:

    (about the Queen granting prorogation)

    She could have done all sorts of things, including whacking off the guy's head and saying "bring me a better one". But she din't. What she did, for reasons that I suspect will never be explained, is do what the man asked as promptly as possible and send him on his way.

    My suspicion is that she really did not want to get into a battle with the outrage media backed by the clown car, so she did what she was told like the nice little tourist attraction she is.

    309:

    In Johnson's shoes, my favored outcome would be a referendum which I would fight and lose. Seems to be the only outcome which likely keeps the Tories in power.

    310:

    "In Johnson's shoes, my favored outcome would be a referendum which I would fight and lose. Seems to be the only outcome which likely keeps the Tories in power. "

    I'd assume that (1) he's worried only about himself, (2) that he's been very successful with lying, and (3) he's banking on chaos.

    311:

    Damnit, why Marxist-Lesbians? Couldn't it be Marxist-bisexuals?

    312:

    On the one hand, a lot of Oregon is really wacko-right-wing - my Eldest lives in Klamath Falls with her husband, and she wants out of there.

    On the other, I read that there's a lot of neofascists coming to (or driving in) to Portland.

    And on the other, other hand, of course they don't like her - if she improved voter registration, why, I mean, everyone knows that the more the proles get to vote, the more they vote demoncrat.

    313:

    Sorry, you don't understand. I strongly recommend reading a book from the late sixties, The Strawberry Statement. When they occupied the offices of the Dean of Columbia College (NYC), they went through the files, and what they found was not a conspiracy, but "one dirty hand washing another".

    That's how the ultra-wealthy get along, and how they work.

    314:

    The Shrub, IMO, was clearly a Dominionist.

    On the other hand, Cheney wasn't. Cheney was one of the (see above) one dirty hand washing the other. As you can see from the two of them, the currently ultrawealthy use them, just as they use any other convenient fools.

    315:

    Two things, Charlie,

    First, I voted for you for best series.

    Second, and this is not an incitement to violence, but curiosity: are the UK bookmakers taking bets on whether BoJo gets assassinated?

    316:

    Boris will have to find another route, but the EU doesn't, so no deal could still happen.

    "No Deal" is absolutely the objective and has been from the start.

    It's really really really difficult to comprehend a pre-enlightenment worldview from inside an enlightenment one -- that there are material facts, that these facts are mechanically discoverable and invariant by person -- but there's a whole lot of pre-enlightenment worldview out there, mostly due to a deliberate effort to create it.

    People with a pre-enlightenment worldview consider factual arguments as snares and delusions; it's not a question of virtue signalling, it's a question of experiential supremacy. It's why they're generally really freaked out about mockery; an actor in a role, a cosplayer, they know they are not the thing. The person with the pre-enlightenment worldview who has managed to experience life as the thing is, functionally, for themself, the thing. Nothing matters until it can alter the experience of desire. (Medieval Romance, the genre, the "and her cloak was random and wild", the inevitable and certain stack of corpses as the conclusion, doesn't make sense unless and until you can make that shift of perception and recognize that the metric of success isn't material, but experiential.)

    It should be pretty obvious that the primary public Brexit figures are disdainful of facts, not as strategy or public presentation, but entirely; the thing that matters is getting to experience the desired life. How much that costs isn't (from in there) a cromulent question.

    I think it's intensely important to recognize that to the extent there are sides, this is not the rough equivalence of the Thirty Years War; one of these sides requires the cessation of facts. Most past world-view driven conflicts had some symmetry, and would be about alternative means of mediating facts or defining the legitimate ways to create an experience of life. This is pretty new, both in being functionally global and in being so very extreme.

    (A lot of traditional worldviews, notably "wealth is virtue", cannot survive too much in the way of facts. They've got a strong interest in guaranteeing a purely experiential political system. Perhaps that's what this is about.)

    317:

    "...are the UK bookmakers taking bets on whether BoJo gets assassinated?"

    A very old George Carlin joke comes to mind. The punchline is "Looks like a pedestrian accident to me, officer."

    318:

    We don't call it "assassination", we call it "execution". Ask that Stuart chap - he was quite insistent about us having it the wrong way round, but it didn't do him any good.

    Moz @ 308: ...and this is why they will never be explained. We finished with explanations quite definitely nearly 400 years ago, and we've gone 300 years since we even had to remind anyone.

    319:

    @300:

    Parliament has already "blocked no deal", twice as I recall, only missing the fact that it takes two to tango.

    To actually avoid no-deal, Parliament (& Govt!) must ratify a deal with EU before the deadline.

    There is currently only one deal on offer, it contains the back-stop and the back-stop stays.

    Parliament could probably bring May's deal back for a vote on its own, but that would require a number of 50%+ votes for a strategy and outcome which can only be summed up by future historians as "accepting defeat in the most humiliating way imaginable."

    If parliament instead does another symbolic "no to no-deal" tantrum vote, Boris will just point at the deadline and say "Approve a deal then?" without offering May's deal up for a vote again, reasonably pointing out that they nixed it three times already.

    The only way Parliament can make themselves relevant and prevent a no-deal exit is to vote through a deal which EU is guaranteed to accept without further negotiation.

    In addition to May's Deal, they can probably copy&paste any one of the preexisting EU trade-agreements, provided it does not make a backstop necessary.

    Not up on all the details, but I belive what is commonly called "Norway+" is the only one qualifying, and it amounts to "Fully paid up, but non-voting EU-member".

    Historians might be marginally less harsh if they did that, depending on how the rioting ends.

    @304:

    Under the weather or not, you cannot convince me that Lizzie, after 67 years in the job, was not 100% aware that the document she signed would take Parliament out of the equation and ensure that UK leaves on Oct 31 on no-deal terms, barring a parliamentary miracle.

    If she did not approve of what Boris asked for, she could have stalled him N different ways, including "being a bit under the weather", giving his opposition time to react.

    She did not, she signed it the very moment it landed on her table.

    Lizzie and Boris are SO over the Parliament.

    320:

    Moz @307 is correct. Not sure how I broke the link. This is the specific piece I was linking to:

    ">https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/brexit-has-failed-but-brexiters-have.html?m=1<\a>

    321:

    This was a right-wing coup, proper. Most of the public is not even aware it has happened.

    322:

    Adrian smith @ 306 The main problem is that the s/n ratio is considerably less than 1. The other problem is Britain's libel laws - & she can't take a fucking hint.

    whitroth BOZO being killed would only generate sympathy He needs to be incapacitated, without becoming a martyr

    Hakan @ 321 Correct I was very suspicious of those claims, back in 2016, but ... Also ...the warnings that "It will break the Union!" being ignored by the brexiteers - was ALSO PART OF THE PLAN. ( And I've only just realised this ) England accounts for what - 80% of the money & power in the UK? Right, cut Scotland loose, allow NI to descend into chaos, you have niw got a permanent-"tory"- majority England, which you can manipulate as you want, certainly for 20 or 30 years. For certain values of "tory" of course.

    Note the quote round "tory" - Edward Heath or Harold Macmillan or even Thatcher (probably), would be horrified by this insanity. Note Major & Clarke both joining the "stop it" brigade?

    323:

    yeah i get that but there are nuggets of signal in there nevertheless, it's like a middle-aged guy trapped in the ego of a fourteen-year-old

    324:

    On the one hand, a lot of Oregon is really wacko-right-wing... On the other, I read that there's a lot of neofascists coming to (or driving in) to Portland.

    This is true, including the recent "Proud Boys" fiasco in which the fascists were outnumbered not merely by counter-protesters - that goes without saying - but by people in banana suits. Violent Antifa brawls play to their victim legend; trying to yell while a guy dressed as a banana honks a tuba at them, not so much.

    Over and over we see that the loud idiots are a tiny minority, but like many vocal extremists they make news far more than the quieter majority.

    325:

    Turns out the three days before prorogation aren't just about avoiding a no-confidence vote/general election; they shatter the remaining parliamentary session into little bits, each of which is too short to debate and pass a bill (it takes three readings in the HoC and three in the HoL to pass an Act, and they need to be in the same sitting).

    It's also designed to prevent Parliament from passing a law saying "Article 50 is hereby revoked; if the Prime Minister doesn't write to the EC on or before such-a-date saying so, he is committing a criminal offense liable for a punishment of blah".

    326:

    A further whacky issue to emerge with no-deal Brexit: proposals to send mainland police to Northern Ireland to bolster the local police in event of riots or paramilitary activity.

    The idiots at the Home Office are proposing to send Scottish cops rather than English ones, on the grounds that one bunch of celts will be more acceptable to another than cops with English accents.

    But. But.

    Note for by-standers: in 2011-21, the six police forces of Scotland were merged to form one force, Police Scotland, as a notional cost-saving measure. (Reader: the savings didn't materialize.)

    Strathclyde Police, aka Glasgow, was the biggest force, so had the most senior officers with the biggest portfolios of responsibility. So Strathclyde cops ended up running Police Scotland. Strathclyde was predominantly presbyterian/orange and rather puritanical; they went down like a lead balloon in other parts of Scotland due to their intolerance and inflexibility.

    So I expect shipping them to Ulster will be like reintroducing the RUC of yore (who were shut down and replaced by the Northern Ireland force for a reason, namely: presbtyerian/orange, intolerant, went down like a lead balloon, etc.)

    327:

    What definition of 'super-rich' are you using? For the 50 mil plus, at least in the US, the ones I have met are way too politically diverse to form much of a bloc.

    They did tend towards a certain privileged view of the eorld. - with relatively little sympathy for people in the lower 50th percentile of capability.

    (Probably a result of firing an awful lot of them.) (And also just not having experience of a world in which they were not smarter and harder working than most.)(y'know, child of Mongolian herders, eventually ends up founding half billion startup.)

    Since mostly luck seems to separate the upper outcomes, I'd be surprised to find their politics becoming more homogeneous at higher wealth ranges.

    Positing an organized, class-based opposition may be useful for communicatiom, but it is also overly optimistic and likely inaccurate. Brexit and Trump are likely emergent idiocy in response to underlying economic trends. (Globalism and automation) That said, people with lack of sympathy towards proles may be more likely to glom onto those idiocies and exploit them. Sadly, they run both parties - which is why one party in the us lies to them and the other thinks that consumption taxes and mandates are the way to combat climate change. (Sounds great until you already can't afford a house and new houses require solar panels. Or, until, that junker you bought with all your savings isn't eligible for registration. Or, maybe, instead of going to the emergency room for care, you're forced to purchase health care to make sure the hospital gets paid...)

    328:

    P H-K @ 319 NOT EVEN WRONG Supose Denamrk has a centre-right guvmint, which then has an internal takeover by the , erm , further right. OK? Their "legitimate" leader then asks Margarethe for a temororay dissolution or suspension of the Storting (?) for a couple of weeks. How much choice does Margarethe actually have?

    Charlie @ 326 OH SHIT Especially when coupled wit the overnight news of an Orange/Green riot in Glasgow Govan last night?

    329:

    Wrt. the Queen: Lizzie is 92. She's already off-loaded many of her public appearances onto her heir; she's not gonna retire, but she's almost certainly cognitively impaired at this point in time, even if only mildly so (it's almost universal among over-85s). She's also running on rails: do whatever it takes to preserve the monarchy is her only goal now, and you don't preserve the monarchy by going against either parliament, or government. In other words, don't take sides: just be a good little rubber stamp and nobody can apportion any of the blame to you.

    330:

    Ray of hope: Herself reminds me that Policing is a devolved issue and before Javid could ship Glaswegian cops to Ulster, he'd have to get Nicola Sturgeon's permission. Which is likely to come in the shape of a declaration along the lines of "over my dead body" if she's got any sense (and she has).

    331:

    There should be time for that after October 14th, though, unless I have missed something. If Bozo tried to get Parliament prorogued AGAIN, my guess is that it might cause enough MPs to rebel and/or the courts to step in.

    Whether #330 will help will depend considerably on whether there are any emergency laws by which the PM or Home Secretary can override such devolution. I agree that the current ruling idiots (and I don't mean just the politicians) are looking horribly as if they are about to make another cockup along the lines of the ones they made in the late 1960s.

    332:

    … You're referring to the failed Mountbatten coup, right?

    333: 330

    Javid?

    Priti Patel is Home Secretary.

    Is she this stupid and stubborn?

    Oh yes, indeedy!

    334:

    No. I am referring to the way that the UK government turned civil unrest caused and responded to by discrimination and repression into a full-blown civil war, during the period 1968-(mid)1970, by a combination of gross negligence and spinelessness. And that is NOT hindsight - I (and many more-clued-up people) knew at the time what needed to be done, how, and how urgently.

    Aside: while reminding myself of the dates, I noticed this in Wikipedia (which I has forgotten):

    A later memoir by Harold Evans, former Times and Sunday Times editor, observed that the Times had egged on King's plans for a coup:

    Rees-Mogg's Times backed the Conservative Party in every general election, but it periodically expressed yearnings for a coalition of the right-centre. In the late 1960s it encouraged Cecil King's notion of a coup against Harold Wilson's Labour Government in favour of a government of business leaders led by Lord Robens. ...

    Any comment would be superfluous.

    335:

    Any comment would be superfluous.

    "History repeats itself; first as tragedy, then as farce."

    Karl Marx. (Or was it Engels?)

    336:

    I'm beginning to think that the only hope is that signaificantly large number of MP's ( & MR Speaker ) simpy refuse to be prorogued & sit in. Back to 1642 indeed, ecxept that the axe won't be pointing at HM, but BOZO

    337:

    Let's hope that, this time, we can look back on it in a few years and laugh our heads off.

    338:

    MP's threaten sit-in ... All it needs is that more than half the house does it ( 326 ) ... could be "fun". I see that mass protests are alredy starting & the word "coup" is being openly used.

    339:

    The way I see it - bozo wants no deal. Remember that brexit has long since stopped being a policy and has ended up now as a cult. And to win a general election bozo needs all those brexit party votes. So if he dosen't deliver a rock-hard brexit he'd loose those votes.

    All of the promises being made ("we'll give more money to schools!","more money on the nhs!") it is all lies. Just to win those extra few votes. What is more scarry though? Boris or those who seem to believe those lies - even though this is the same party that has spent the last decade cutting via austerity.

    Any "talks" he'll get into are more than likely going to be meaningless. Bozo still can't undertstand that you can't just "get rid of the backstop" and that there's no purely technological solution (although from what I hear there's some sort of "list" being drawn up concerning that).

    I still wonder if the EU will possibly eject the UK from the EU. After all surely there's only so long the EU can tolerate the UK until it is time to tell the UK to get lost.

    Thinking about it all though - given that bozo appears to be reading more and more from the trump playbook what are the chances of him trying to do something wacko-insane? Maybe (for example) revoke scottish independence and shut down its parliament? I know that sounds absurd, but we live in absurd times....

    Bozo boris. Just what we wanted - our very own version; a poundland trump. :-(

    ljones

    ljones

    340:

    How about the word "traitor"? It's got a nice ring to it, as of whetstone on axe blade.

    341:

    I've been wondering the same thing, brought on by Brown's claims that the EU was reading/going to remove the deadline.

    I don't see any upside to the EU unilaterally removing the deadline given the inability of Parliament to make any meaningful decisions at the moment, and suspect many in the EU will take the view that as bad as Brexit might be for the EU the continuing uncertainty is equally as bad.

    Just as US businesses are stopping investment because they can't plan around Trump's random decisions, businesses in the EU (and those foreign companies in the UK expecting access to Europe) can no longer make investment decisions given the unknowns of whether the UK is in or out.

    From the EU perspective getting some certainty is likely the better of 2 bad choices.

    342:

    I have to point out that a bad analogy is like a wet screwdriver.

    In difference from UK, Denmark actually have a constitution, and we have it primarily because we had a bonkers king (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_VII_of_Denmark) so the power left to the regent is purely ceremonial in all but one case: If parliament cannot form a govenment, the regent gets to roll the dice to move the game forward.

    But if we have a government, Parliament reigns supreme (which is not always a good thing).

    Maggies grandfather got a little close to meddling at one point in the 1930'ies, and it was made clear to him that if he wanted Denmark to become a republic, that was the way to do it.

    So no, you scenario is not possible. Our parliament is not advisory, they are the regent.

    343:
    In addition to May's Deal, they can probably copy&paste any one of the preexisting EU trade-agreements, provided it does not make a backstop necessary.

    This is the usual misunderstanding. "May's deal", i.e. the Withdrawal Agreement is the necessary precondition to any negotiated Brexit. Norway+, Brazil^4, Turkeye^(pii), whatever, the UK first needs to ratify the WA, the rest is negotiated during the transition period.

    There are 3 ways forward:

  • No deal.

  • Withdraw the Article 50 declaration.

  • Ratify the WA then start negotiating the final relationship.

  • If the UK "chooses" #1 there is the minor problem that it will need to negotiate a trade agreement with the EU and the first words the EU will say are "I have a piece of paper for you to sign" as they withdraw a dusty copy of the WA from their briefcases.

    344:

    I'm having trouble with the sheer shock of watching a first-world nation turn into a third-world nation, literally overnight. I've been following this whole thing with a kind of spectator's horror, like watching your favorite team's only quarterback deliberately throw a dozen interceptions* in a row, but it just became overwhelming today, probably because I can no longer imagine a legal way out of this mess. You guys are actually going to do this!

    When does the revolution start?

    • "Interceptions" are a very bad thing in American-style football.
    345:

    I do. It would scupper Bozo's Cunning; I am sure that everyone in the EU who is relevant knows that Plan and, given the current UK politics, might well bring him down, which would gladden many of their hearts. Hope springs infernal, and the EU still hopes that someone more rational might replace him, if only because of the consequences of No Deal on Eire.

    But I can easily see them giving a delay subject to the UK choosing one of the three options in #343 by the deadline, with no further extension allowed, and could just about see them calling a halt to negotiations on the grounds of the UK's behaviour.

    346:

    I agree. The absolute cluster-fuck of the late 60’s that lead to years or death, fear and social disruption in NI seems to be sorely in danger of being repeated. There have been precious few Westminster governments in my lifetime that have made any serious effort to understand or create meaningful NI policy, but the last three years seem to have moved the dial from dangerous ignorance to wilful malice.

    347:

    Supose Denamrk has a centre-right guvmint, which then has an internal takeover by the , erm , further right. OK? Their "legitimate" leader then asks Margarethe for a temororay dissolution or suspension of the Storting (?) for a couple of weeks. How much choice does Margarethe actually have?

    The Danish constitution does not allow the prime minister or the regent to dissolve the Danish Parliament (Folketinget) temporarily. The prime minister as the representative of the ruler can call for an election, but the old Parliament is not dissolved before the election has been held and a new Parliament has been formed.

    There is a reason for this: In the late 19th century, the king appointed a prime minister and dissolved Parliament, so that the prime minister could rule through emergency powers.

    348:

    For almost of the thinkable future relationships, you are right: The WA would be required.

    But some kinds of relationships, particular Norway(+) does not need the WA, because for all practical purposes UK would still be a member of EU, only seated at the kids table wearing a bib with the letters "Proud non-EU Member".

    It's not fooling anybody in Norway, and it would not fool anybody in UK.

    But if Boris is going to play the "All rules have been followed" game, Parliament does have the option to answer alike, and vote to "Leave EU" in a way which is Remain in all aspects but one.

    All they have to do is vote to Leave EU on Oct 31st, and continue their relationship uninterrupted under Norway(+) terms from Nov 1st, and mail it to BXL. (The keyword obviously being "uninterrupted".)

    EU will sweep the path, roll out the red carpet and spread rose petals, because it would be the best of all possible futures: Keep UK in the union and strip them of their vote and veto.

    349:

    QUESTION I lost an important part of the plot some while back... Can someone kindly point out / supply links / give Noddy explanations of: What is the ACTUAL EU Directive ( or equivalent ) that is getting the ultra-rich fascists in a tither about offshore monies pleae? Chaper & Verse & as much detail as possible for a non-expert preferred. Thanks in advance

    350:

    On the Border Problem:

    AFAIK both the Irish and UK government have stated that they will not implement a hard border under any circumstances including no deal. So presumably they both have some sort of border contingency plan for no deal, but the Irish will not want any visibility of their plans because it would weaken their position.

    There seem to be UK thoughts about sector-by-sector deals: NI Agriculture to adhere to EU rules, everything else inspected remotely and sporadically?

    Anyone have any good sources on this?

    351:

    https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:32018L0843&from=EN

    Which can be summarized as "Nobody gets to own anything whatsoever more than the contents of a reasonable sized wallet without that ownership being a matter of public record".

    The EU seems to have really, really lost patience with financial crimes.

    You can, if I read this right have yourself removed from the fully public databases if you are at specific risk of being targeted by criminals, but that is the equivalent of having an unlisted number, the tax authorities most certainly will still have the full records.

    352:

    The EU gave the UK 6 months to sort things out, which the UK has spent 4 of those 6 months:

    1) the Conservative Party decided it was time for a new leader, and the litmus test the elderly few who made the decision had was a pure Brexit damn the consequences.

    2) the Labour Party leadership huddled around trying to come up with ways to get Corbyn into Downing Street that didn't involve actually publicly committing to anything, with the ultimate goal the he could be the saviour by negotiating a new and glorious Brexit.

    3) regular MPs still couldn't decide anything other than the were against a no-deal Brexit, and somewhat promptly decided to agree to go on holiday.

    Another extension won't achieve anything from an EU perspective. Yes, you may get Boris forced out, that just gets him out of owning the resulting mess. The new leader, while likely better than Boris, will still want a no-deal Brexit because that's what the elderly Tory faithful want.

    The only way this ends better than a no-deal Brexit (or perhaps the existing deal) is if enough of the British public make it clear to their MPs that the current mess is unacceptable and thus force them to grow the spines that most of them seem to have misplaced.

    353:
    AFAIK both the Irish and UK government have stated that they will not implement a hard border under any circumstances including no deal.

    I'll set you the same challenge I've asked everyone who's brought this talking point up with me: find an Irish government member quoted as saying that. No-one's succeeded yet...

    (There's any number of quotes that paraphrase to "we really really really don't want to have to," yes, but that's not "we won't.")

    354:

    You aren't allowing for wishful thinking, and the natural desire of EU leaders to kick Bozo in the goolies. I am not disputing your analysis, except as an indication of how the EU will react (where it might be right, or not).

    355:

    Re Parliamentary sit-ins:

    As I understand it, the Palace of Westminster is something of a fire hazard. Beware of faked Reichstag moments, perpetrated by external actors - I'm sure we can all think of some likely candidates.

    356:

    Small problem with unilaterally removing the deadline:

    "The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period."

    Having that not apply will take a referendum in Ireland. We regularly decline to pass referenda. A vague hope of getting the backstop versus ...everything the Tories and fellow travelers have been getting up to the last few years? Hard sell.

    357:

    Holy. Fucking. SHIT...

    It has got to be indicative of something that the UK government has not, as they are so fond of doing, gleefully grabbed the opportunity to use this particular piece of pain-in-the-arse fuckshittery as a stick to beat the EU with and remind us how much better off we'd be without them, but instead has happily invited all the turds to be thrown at itself by causing it to be known as "UK government anti fraud measures" or similar.

    And it has got to be a good runner for most spectacularly ill-thought-out piece of shitty mistargeted legislation ever seeing as how its supposed targets just shrug their shoulders and wreck the entire economic and political structure of the country instead, while someone like me who quite legitimately pays no tax because I get something less than half the amount of money you're allowed before you have to gets directly fucked by it. Viz:

    "it is essential to lower the existing thresholds for general purpose anonymous prepaid cards and to identify the customer in the case of remote payment transactions where the transaction amount exceeds EUR 50."

    I have such a card. It is the only way I can pay for anything other than in person, apart from using postal orders (which I actually prefer to use but the fees are horrific and stupid people don't take them). I pay bills amounting to about a hundred quid a month with it. It has already been crippled by having a two hundred quid a month limit imposed on it which is implemented in such an idiotic way that only spending half that still doesn't prevent it kicking in unpredictably and without reason, this being presented as a UK government initiative.

    Over the last few months it has kept whining at me to "verify my phone number" and threatening that "soon" transactions over 30 quid will mean it will ring me up to "check" before they will go through. I have tried contacting its support process to point out that I do not have a fucking phone number and demand assurance that it isn't going to suddenly and irrecoverably crap out on me in the middle of a transaction at some unspecified future date because its dimwitted developers have put NOT NULL on a database field representing a potentially NULL quantity. The only information I have gained thereby is that its support monkeys are too stupid to understand a simple six-word basic English sentence if it has a negative in it (such as "I do not have a phone"), which does not give me confidence, but at the same time nothing has actually happened - it continues to function normally and it continues to whine about its crappy database schema in exactly the same way.

    And all this bollocks has been presented as entirely down to the UK government. The whole experience throughout has included absolutely no indication of being anything other than the British government being their usual thoughtless selves concerning people with less money than them plus the luck of it being implemented by an outfit so incompetent at their own basic function that they think an acceptable fix for a bug that stops you putting money on the card is to post a message on their website telling you what to tell the cashier to do and then leave it like that and do fuck all about it for four years and counting.

    Nowhere is there the slightest expansion on that blunt "soon". Nowhere does it even hint that it actually means "depending on when/whether we leave the EU". It doesn't even hint at any involvement of the EU in the initiative that would provide the clue to work it out. You're just left to put down the daftness of announcing something's going to happen "soon" which then continues to be "soon" indefinitely to the incompetence you already expect from them.

    The point is that the dearth of information is so complete that it looks suspicious now I have the explanation. Simply changing "UK government regulations" to "EU regulations" in their blurb would, if nothing else, relieve their support team of the burden of not answering all the people wondering "how soon is soon" etc. and let them get on with hunting each other's ectoparasites, as well as being more accurate. It's almost as if they have been told don't let the punters guess it's the EU.

    358:

    Greg Tingey @ 328: FWIW, the Danish word you were searching for is Folketing (the people's 'thing', or, as Icelanders and Old Norsk / Old English speakers would write, þing). The name 'Storting' (from stor=great, plus thing) is used by the country cousins, my dad's folk.

    I hereby sentence you to watch the first two series of 'Borgen' (the good ones).

    359:

    The implementation might well be "ooh, austerity" rather than "the minimum necessary to comply with the EU regulation". If it's austerity, of course a Tory government wants credit for it.

    I will point out that compulsory two-factor authentication for online transactions above certain thresholds is happening in Canada in a very ad-hoc way; different banks and different credit card companies are doing it variously. I'm pretty sure there's a large element of selection pressure involved.

    360:

    identify the customer in the case of remote payment transactions where the transaction amount exceeds EUR 50. And "terrorist attacks and logistics" are invoked. This is close to a ban on anonymity from the government for card users. Terrorism my ass (not to belittle terrorism or etc, or tax avoidance); this is mainly so that governments can track and disrupt low-budget legitimate non-violent dissent. Is cash still anonymous in the UK for such transaction sizes? (Writing as an American, fwiw.)

    However, anonymous prepaid cards are easy to use in financing terrorist attacks and logistics. It is therefore essential to deny terrorists this means of financing their operations, by further reducing the limits and maximum amounts under which obliged entities are allowed not to apply certain customer due diligence measures provided for by Directive (EU) 2015/849.

    361:

    MP's threaten sit-in ...

    Some old bullshit, though. "a small group of MPs united under the banner 'anything but Corbyn' are threatening to sulk until a no-deal Brexit is achieved". It doesn't make sense even in the terms presented. Again, we have the mule stuck between two piles of shit unable to make any decision because it doesn't like piles of shit. Pick a pile, you stupid mule. No-Deal or Corbyn... quick, before someone takes you to the knacker's yard.

    The UK parliament has conclusively ruled out all the available options, the only thing they haven't ruled out (because they can't) is a no-deal Brexit. So that's what they have decided to do. Running round in circles claiming that they don't want to do what they've decided to do is not a display of adult behaviour. Saying that they will do something else just as soon as five impossible things happen is a mark of very stable genius.

    Sure, it's theoretically possible that they could resume parliament, reform the constitution so that someone other than the leader of the opposition can propose a no confidence motion, pass a no-confidence motion, force an election, run the election, get a new parliament where their side has a bigger majority (??? to do that lot they need a majority). WTF?

    362:

    The prepaid cards got tossed in there because terrorists were, in fact, using them. The Paris november 13 attack operation ran on them. "This is why we cant have nice things" in action, I guess. Get a card with your name on it is about all you can do.

    However, neither this, nor terrorism in general are the main trust of this. - It is an incredibly broad directive that states that the beneficial owners of, essentially, everything, must be a matter of public record. That destroys every tax evasion scheme there is, because it means you cant hide your money anywhere in the EU, and it also provides for intense scrutiny of money going into and out of places that are not compliant - And what is the point of having millions in a taxhaven if you get arrested if you ever try to spend it? Heck, it is going to do a number on the entire illegal economy.

    363:

    Oh, hai Iron.

    Now this is the bit where all the morality police and so-so get bitten, hard. This is the bit where you read the prior posts, note the T/D/Y stamps and start acting like adults.

    MF users and others (and you'd better protect MR CHUCK TINGLE) are basically directly responsible for a social media mob / suicide.

    And we warned you about it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2MHUJTciRg

    There you go.

    MF and co are no more morally better than the chans.

    Job Done, Mission Complete.

    323

    yeah i get that but there are nuggets of signal in there nevertheless, it's like a middle-aged guy trapped in the ego of a fourteen-year-old

    That would be indeed sad if this body hadn't died at 14 and we were using it a puppet all these years, wouldn't it?

    Irony: the patsy has to sound convincing.

    Fuck me are you bad at this.

    e have an exciting new opportunity for over ten 13-17 year olds to join the RBWM Police Cadets! 🚨

    The new term starts on the 4th September so get in touch with us via Steve Steniford – our recruitment lead at wmtvpvpc@outlook.com to find out more! https://twitter.com/TVP_Maidenhead/status/1161720509320634368

    There's three furry police "DOGS" in charge of under-aged young males. Press would have a field day if they weren't so biased. Imagine the DM going after Trans people for teaching kids in libraries!

    Oh. Wait.

    Wait... does that mean we hate furries? Or think they're pedophiles?

    No: it does mean that your grasp of what's actually happening in the world is so narrow to be useless.

    ~

    And they killed another one of us last night and you're all fucking muppets.

    364:

    Well done Greg, you noticed Govan.

    We have to lay it on thick and insulting to make any of you actually look at the moves out there.

    T/D/M/Y

    Bit before it kicked off we gave you a warning, right?

    Remind me about all those phone calls the Met ignored again.

    365:

    But Triptych.

    MF is directly involved with a suicide and hate mob pile on. Directly.

    You've the moral weight of trash pandas.

    But sure Dave, give us a lecture.

    It's a Mirror.

    366:

    The problem is that both choices are Brexit, which for a remain MP (or party), means neither choice is acceptable.

    The ball is really in Labour's court. As long as they try to play both sides and have a Brexit leader it is going to be difficult to find a way out of the mess (the fact that Corbyn wants a Corbyn Brexit and not a no-deal Brexit is an irrelevant distinction).

    367:

    The Many Named One has racked up their usual bingo-card of excuses: - "I was pretending to be someone else". - "It was a joke". - "Someone else did it first".

    They're all pretty poor excuses, but I'm particularly leery of the last one since on this occasion their point of reference was the DUP. And if you're excusing your dubious behaviour by saying "the DUP did it first", you've accelerated well past the amoral event horizon in my personal lexicon of morality.

    It's a Mirror.

    It's a commentary on the binary cluster-fuck that is NI without end and without recourse.

    It's a lot of things.

    But, since you're not reading this: imagine typing that when the topic is NI and not GETTING THE AMAZINGLY OBVIOUS INFERENCE THAT THIS IS THEIR PROBLEM.

    Are you >40 in NI? Then fuck off.

    Are you <20 in NI? Then you'll get the joke.

    But mainly: it's about some [redacted] stuff that we're bored with.

    We've lived through more heinous shit per week than you for 10+ years so your Platform of Judgement is pretty fucking hilarious to us.

    p.s.

    The [redacted] stuff counts. Hello #323 and so on.

    You're completely fucked once the Cat gets out of the bag.

    And no, you didn't kill the cat.

    You. Do. Not. Have. Access. To. The. Realms. We. Do.

    And, given your weighted so clever "har har, we know this..." then you're on the list.

    Completed Mind Wipe. Memory. Family. All of it.

    So, keep digging.

    Five-By-Five.

    368:

    Seriously.

    Imagine typing that about the Struggles and not understanding you're typing up a meta-critique of the entire shit fest by accident to condemn someone as juvenile.

    Now, that's funny.

    369:

    Oh, and triptych.

    If you don't imagine we timed both of those Events to coincide to remind the more "liberal" readers of their failings and their bias, from the Chans to the Northern Irish bits you'd rather didn't exist.

    Then.

    Ignore the posts. Black-list them. Put our fingers in your ears. Walk blind and wonder as the fires spread in your neighborhoods.

    But it's a meta-meta-commentary on Liberal responses to both of these 'dark places' and morally, you failed both.

    Like, 100%.

    14 year olds can be sooo annoying when they're right and playing you.

    p.s.

    1st Sept our kind drop the drinking and the act. There's about five of us left, but we're the ones who [redacted]. Oh, and apparently we accidentally Unionized the entire Lower strata of what you'd call Hell Minions so, hey. They're very cute with their banners and infernal singing.

    HK / FR

    MIC - KEY - MO - USE

    370:

    Oh, and apparently we accidentally Unionized the entire Lower strata of what you'd call Hell Minions so, hey. They're very cute with their banners and infernal singing. [Smiles] These, I want to [see] and salute, somehow. Playing with "power fingers". So very very crude, but interesting.

    371:

    My understanding is that the post-No-Deal situation is somewhat worse than you portray. Numerous EU representatives (including Barnier) have already said on the record that their first concerns in any negotiations after a No-Deal exit would be the same as they were when negotiating the WA: dealing with the Irish border (in a manner that allows the Good Friday Agreement to remain in force), settlement of payments (the "divorce bill"), and citizens' rights -- and that other matters would have to wait until these are settled. So the Brexiteers don't get to even start negotiating their Free Trade Agreement until they've agreed to the parts of the Withdrawal Agreement they like the least.

    So, so far, that's pulling out a few dusty pages of the WA. But not necessarily all of them! In particular, it might be missing the bits that allow you to keep trading with the EU27 as if still a member (and with other countries on terms negotiated by the EU) while hashing out new arrangements. WTO rules allow for current trading arrangements to continue during this kind of transition period -- but that requires that the arrangements being continued be those in effect at the start of the transition period. So if Parliament ratified the WA while the UK is still an EU member (on, say, next Tuesday), then the UK gets to keep trading as if it was still a member for some period of time. If, however, the UK is no longer an EU member at the time the agreement is ratified, there are no longer any pre-existing trading arrangements to continue, and re-establishing them becomes, legally, a much dicier proposition -- which might be tantamount to a time-limited Norway+ deal, with many of the complications of negotiating a full one.

    Upshot: the UK would be stuck with three provisions of the WA that the Tories hate, but might have to forgo its major benefits.

    372:

    both choices are Brexit

    All nine choices are Brexit. This is what I mean by saying they've stopped trying to connect with reality and are instead trying to out-Boris Boris. FFS, he has way more experience than they do and he's better known for it. Even if by some miracle those MPs manage to come up with a more palatable fantasy they're going to really struggle to get media coverage even from the anti-no-deal media, because Boris will see what they've done and adjust his fantasy accordingly.

    Look, all of those MPs sat in parliament and in best parliamentary fashion were presented with a whole range of options. On every single question "is this option better than no-deal Brexit" the house as a whole said "fuck no", and most individual MPs said that to most of the options. Trying to pretend the questions were actually "do you like this in a purely abstract way not relating to anything else" is nonsense. In every case the relevant comparison was to the status quo... which is no deal. If they want a deal they have to make one.

    When you're on record as saying that No Deal is your least hated favourite fish, running round once it's too late saying you don't like No Deal after all is just nonsense. Their whole job is to understand how parliament works, employ advisors and seek advice to make sure they understand things correctly, then make decisions and vote accordingly.

    There is nothing any of them can say on this topic right now that should not be prefaced with "I am not fit to be an MP because..."

    373:

    Pigeon: you know how easy it is to script an interaction on the web?

    They don't like to admit this in public, but payment systems are similar because they're all automated and accessible via the internet.

    So "small" pre-paid cards owned by people like you without a phone look very like bots. A £200/month limit doesn't sound like much of interest to the money laundering authorities until you multiply it by 1,000 or 1,000,000, at which point that bot army is running on a virtual host somewhere in the cloud and putting through roughly one transaction per second for a total turnover of, oh. uk to a billion quid a year. That's a billion quid that is anonymized and bypasses the tax authorities and could be doing shit like making strategic political donations or buying shares in a company or engaging in money laundering or whatever the hell is undermining our social structures.

    It's not about you. It's about giant criminal operations that are trying to look like people like you.

    My advice in your situation would be: get a cheap burner GSM phone and a pay-as-you-go SIM. The phone will be £10-20 new, but you don't need new—ten years old will do, as long as it's unlocked. The SIM will be £0.01 to £1; you then register it on-line to buy top-ups using your pre-paid credit card, and register its number for verification with the pre-paid card. After the first month, don't bother topping it up unless you need to make outgoing calls—it'll accept incoming calls even if there's no credit on it, and you can leave it in a desk drawer with the ringer turned off unless you need it. (Some modern GSM phones have standby battery life—able to receive calls—of up to six months; they're designed so a driver can leave one in the glove compartment of their car semi-permanently in case they end up in a ditch in the middle of nowhere and need an emergency device.)

    374:

    Rick Moen @ 357 I hereby sentence you to watch the first two series of 'Borgen' (the good ones). OK, what's that then? I assume it's a TV series? If so FORGET IT, I DO NOT HAVE A TV

    @ 362 -> 364, 366 -368 Are content free - or is there a tiny bit of signal in there?

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

    Actually, I hate to say it, but a lot of the Brexit disaster can be laid at the door of Corbyn & his followers ... there's one on this blog, who go on & ON & ON about how anyone to the right of Stella is an EVIL FASCIST & we don't trust her either ... All this screaming about fascism dulls the senses, so that when real, actual fascists ( Like Cummings & Farrago ) show up, no-one notices until it's probably too late - me included. "The boy who cried "WOLF!" one time too many ... Oh shit.

    No-one has mentioned ( or have they? ) that a n other effect of a hard brexit will be instant inflation, because ... the £ will continue to sink against the $ .... And what is priced in U$dollars? Fuel, that's what - expect fuel to go to £1.60 - £2 a litre ... which will then knock-on to everything else, how nice.

    375:
    After the first month, don't bother topping it up unless you need to make outgoing calls—it'll accept incoming calls even if there's no credit on it, and you can leave it in a desk drawer with the ringer turned off unless you need it.

    I don't believe this is generally true any more.

    (At least I have seen my mum's top-up phone stop working for incoming calls after it wasn't topped up for a quarter. Vodaphone I think… but it was a year or two back so I may be misremembering.)

    376:

    "Actually, I hate to say it, but a lot of the Brexit disaster can be laid at the door of Corbyn & his followers ..."

    I never knew that you were into extreme masochism! Posting to this blog must be agony for you.

    377:

    I am not sure that it ever was. I had accounts cancelled because I hadn't made a call for months, which is morally nothing short of theft.

    378:

    Thank you for the suggestions, but see 374 - are you saying that it is possible to buy a SIM and then have it remain active indefinitely in receive-only mode without having to keep putting money on it? Because I always thought they conked out after a month or two if you did that.

    [Not a nitpick because the mechanism is relevant: it's not the £200/month limit that has raised my ire - that is imposed because they can't be arsed to make use of their privilege to abuse the electoral register and prefer to hassle me to send them documents I don't have instead; it's not a technology-related problem, and my main complaint is the shitty way it's implemented that makes it effectively about half the supposed limit. It's the proposal to start cabbaging every individual outgoing payment over 50 euros (per that EU legislation link; the card outfit renders it as "30 quid") using the mobile phone network which is raising my ire.]

    Thing is, what you say tends more to reinforce my point about it being an ill-thought-out regulation that is better at hitting the wrong targets than the ones it's supposed to hit. If what you say about SIMs remaining active indefinitely in receive-only mode is true, then I could script something to talk to a USB GSM stick and respond automatically to these 2FA requests, such that I could just set it up and forget about it, with ease comparable to scripting a web interaction. (If it's SMS-based, probably with greater ease, as SMS on a USB GSM stick is all just good old AT commands...)

    So if I was up to something dodgy I could use the same method and max out the USB bus with GSM sticks, one stick and one SIM for each dodgy card. GSM sticks cost a lot less than 50 euros, so their purchase is unaffected by these regulations, and doesn't make any significant difference to the profits. I could set the thing up in an empty house and just let it run until it got busted; it uses a lot less juice than a bunch of lights and it doesn't smell of weed, so it would probably last quite a long time.

    I dare say this might need some refinements for actual use, but it works fine as a thought experiment to show that a measure intended to defeat organised crime is completely useless even against an unorganised individual basement criminal who is willing to spend a bit of time plugging shit together.

    If I was organised crime then I would have enough resources to render it entirely nugatory. I don't know how they work and I presume they are expensive or dodgy or both, but I do know there are means available for creating a "virtual" mobile phone and SIM card that has no physical existence but can still interact completely normally with the mobile phone network. There are also of course things like botnets running on compromised real mobile phones. It makes it a bit more of a fiddle to set up but the boss just issues the orders to the minions and the extra cost involved is as near zero compared to the profits as makes no difference.

    It's basically a completely classical case of technofuckery by politicians who think that since technology has brought the problem to light there must be a one-line magic technological fix for it. Same as porn blocks and all the other stuff that doesn't work: automated policing never does. If they're serious about solving the problem then they need to actually pay people to put the hours in and forget technofantasies about doing it on the cheap.

    379:

    Yes, they do. If the phone makes no calls (and possibly if the credit balance goes to zero) for an extended period, you get a text message warning you that it will be withdrawn if you don't use it. Partly this is to make you keep giving them money, but the main reason will be to prevent the rapid exhaustion of the available number pool.

    I make enough calls to keep it going, and get incoming calls from work (on-call support) and the occasional credit card alert about bank holidays, etc.

    You can't keep a prepaid cellphone on the shelf indefinitely, some usage is required to keep the service alive. (Though any phone (in the UK, at least) is required to be able to dial the emergency services, even if locked/out of contract/etc.)

    380:

    "All this screaming about fascism dulls the senses, so that when real, actual fascists ( Like Cummings & Farrago ) show up, no-one notices until it's probably too late - me included."

    I remember thinking similarly concerning Hollywood, in a past discussion. With it being so easy and so common to use Nazis, or people with German accents who look like Nazis, as characters who everyone immediately understands are the bad guys and who can be as pointlessly evil as you like without any need to rationalise what the actual point of it is, then when real actual Nazis show up people just laugh at them and look round to see if they can spot Bruce Willis coming to get them in a vest.

    381:

    The next logical iteration of these regulations is that anon online payments just get banned, full stop. No transactions without an identity attached. The criminal syndicates might then try large scale identity theft, but with central registers, the people whos identities they steal are going to darn well sound the alarm when their online banking service shows all this activity they did not originate.

    382:

    On a different aspect of the current clusterfuck, I notice that the Scottish Conservatives are due to elect a new leader in mid-October, and the Scotsman is mentioning that the party is increasingly willing to consider becoming independent of the English Conservatives. While I think that it is very unlikely, it is just possible that such a move might be announced in time to weaken Bozo's position.

    To people north of the border, how likely does that sound?

    383:

    Until October 31st, whether they realize it or not, they have 4 options:

    1) accept whatever Boris decides

    2) force a new referendum, with EU giving a delay for this to happen

    3) force an election, again with EU delay (unlikely to achieve anything given either Boris gets a majority or a return to the current mess are most likely options. On positive side it might force Labour to finally accept they need to get rid of Corbyn given likely disastrous Labour election result).

    4) no-deal Brexit by default of not choosing one of above.

    Votes are unpredictable, but a clear referendum offers the possibility of cancelling Brexit.

    384:

    You can't keep a prepaid cellphone on the shelf indefinitely, some usage is required to keep the service alive.

    That might be so in the UK; I use a prepaid phone in the US and they're happy to keep taking my money indefinitely. (Money gets me both minutes and days; at one point I had over 2000 unused minutes.) The point about a finite pool of numbers is correct, as I found out a few years back when I accidentally let my phone expire. They reassigned my old phone number within 48 hours and I was stuck with a different one. My vast credit of minutes disappeared too.

    385:

    382:

    I think there's another option - vote for the existing Withdrawal Agreement. It can't be brought back during this session but one interesting impact of Parliament being prorogued is that the WA could be voted on again once the new session begins. I appreciate it's been rejected three times but it's certainly possible that it might look more appealling with No Deal two weeks away.

    386:

    I'm not sure but I must have met a Scottish Conservative in my time on this here mudball but I couldn't really say. They're a rare beast, like the upland clockwise haggis or Nessie, perhaps. Sometimes for Government purposes they retool an English Tory to deal with Scottish affairs since there aren't any at Westminster.

    Politically Scottish right-wingers can see the fucking mess the English right-wingers are making and aren't in the same sort of echo chamber so they're more willing to mutter about showing clear water between them and their "colleagues". However, they're Tories so they will unite in lockstep (oops, nearly typed "goosestep" there) when push comes to shove because, well, they're Tories, Unionist is in their name.

    387:

    The Scottish Unionist party only amalgamated with the Conservative and Unionist Party in England and Wales in 1965. Given that currently the UK Conservative Party is willing to give up Scotland as the price of Brexit (according to polling) the de-amalgamation of the Scottish Unionists is quite possible.

    388:

    That's where it's going. It's not unlikely we'll see Paypal delenda est at about the same time.

    If governments want to survive, they have to be able to compel corporates to pay taxes. This is going to look a lot like the introduction of general public identities -- the whole "you need a surname" thing! -- did.

    389:

    Michael Cain @ 301:

    "They'd basically have three whole working days to organize the confidence vote, which isn't a lot..."

    The party leaders couldn't start making phone calls and meeting for lunch this week? Canvasing their MPs and negotiating terms? So they return on Sep 3 knowing exactly what they're going to do?

    (I am seriously ignorant of the actual workings of Parliament.)

    I get the impression the British Parliament operates only slightly more efficiently than the U.S. Congress. There's plenty of ways for one or two absolute assholes (arseholes) to gum up the works so nothing can get done. And since, in this case, they only have to keep things fucked up for three days ...

    390:

    Poul-Henning Kamp @ 319: Under the weather or not, you cannot convince me that Lizzie, after 67 years in the job, was not 100% aware that the document she signed would take Parliament out of the equation and ensure that UK leaves on Oct 31 on no-deal terms, barring a parliamentary miracle.

    If she did not approve of what Boris asked for, she could have stalled him N different ways, including "being a bit under the weather", giving his opposition time to react.

    She did not, she signed it the very moment it landed on her table.

    Lizzie and Boris are SO over the Parliament.

    The question then becomes, "What does the Queen expect to gain by allowing BoZo to overthrow the government in this way?" How does the royal family expect to benefit from a No-Deal Brexit?

    391:

    whitroth @ 311: Damnit, why Marxist-Lesbians? Couldn't it be Marxist-bisexuals?

    ... or just "straight" Marxists!

    392:

    Greg Tingey @ 322: whitroth
    BOZO being killed would only generate sympathy
    He needs to be incapacitated, without becoming a martyr

    So, maybe a drive-by colostomy?

    393:

    I suspect the advice she received was something like "Do what Bad Hair Man asks to spare the nation an even worse crisis.", I believe not making the situation even worse is what the royal family hoped to gain. I think everything else looked even worse.

    394:

    Erwin @ 327: What definition of 'super-rich' are you using? For the 50 mil plus, at least in the US, the ones I have met are way too politically diverse to form much of a bloc.

    They did tend towards a certain privileged view of the eorld. - with relatively little sympathy for people in the lower 50th percentile of capability.

    How do you determine someone's "percentile of capability" in a world where some people are never allowed the opportunity to get ahead & some are never allowed to fail no matter how incompetent they actually are.

    I generally define "super-rich" as those in the 99.0% Net Worth bracket (and above). Being in the top 1% (and above) of incomes may qualify you as "super-rich", but having greater assets (net worth) than 98% of the population definitely does.

    The "super-rich" may be politically diverse on many things, but ...

    when it comes to their "wealth" and how to keep those in the lower 99% from getting hold of any of it, they speak with many voices, but there's only one message.

    I got mine, so fuck the rest of you guys!

    Admittedly, there are some differences of opinion among the "super-rich" about how best to keep the rabble down, but there's no difference of opinion among them about hanging on to everything they've accumulated; whether it be by hook or by crook - entrepreneurial accomplishment or "born on third base and going through life thinking they hit a triple". There ain't no difference.

    395:

    Charlie Stross @ 335:

    "Any comment would be superfluous."
    "History repeats itself; first as tragedy, then as farce."

    Karl Marx. (Or was it Engels?)

    I always thought that was Oscar Wilde (although, I guess it could have been Groucho Marx).

    396:

    Perhaps simply staying out of the crossfire?

    Despite all the revelations of the last month about how badly the government (or at least the non-elected part of the government)expects things to be after a no-deal Brexit the polling numbers of Brexit aren't changing.

    Worse, when doing a Google search to find poll numbers a top result is a story today on The Sun website giving a poll result that has Boris getting a 28 seat majority if an election held (and 84 seat if the Brexit Party disappeared). Usual caveats about the unreliability about polls, particularly if done on behalf of certain parties, but...

    397:

    mdive @ 395 I remember the (up-to-now) worst PM of the post-war years ... Anthony Eden What a screw-up. But HE got the blame, his party didn't. THIS time around both will gwt the blame, because they enthusiastically supported BOZO throughout, in spite of his record .... He looks set to be the worst we've EVER had - yes, worse than Lord North Oh how I WISH Labour had a competent leader ... but at this stage, much too late now, of course, even COrbyn is better than Brexit, except of course Corbyn WANTS Brexit & he wants it to be a tory disaster. And fuck the country, just like BOZO in fact.

    398:

    Just an in-between comment on the Irish part of this thread - loads of friends of mine in Dublin have suddenly discovered a love of the Irish language that they didn't have before this.

    Back when I first started living in Dublin (+/- 1995), all my science fiction fan friends laughed at me because I wanted to learn Gaeilge. They mostly had had to suffer learning enough to pass in school, since if they didn't manage that, they didn't get any of their qualifications, no matter how good their other grades were.

    This was converted in pretty short order during these past 12 months by the attitude displayed in London. Now, they're all pounding Duolingo to drill vocabulary, and they're more than happy to give me ad hoc lessons to improve my own (very basic) command of the language.

    I was also hearing a LOT more spoken Gaeilge on the street in Dublin, whereas previously, one had to really look for it, and if one wasn't raised in a family where it was specifically encouraged, speaking Gaelge had been regarded as a bit... twee?

    Not anymore, though.

    399:

    p>Greg Tingey @ 373:

    "Rick Moen @ 357
    I hereby sentence you to watch the first two series of 'Borgen' (the good ones)."

    OK, what's that then? I assume it's a TV series? If so FORGET IT, I DO NOT HAVE A TV

    That don't mean nothing. If there is a good program on TV, there are many ways to watch that program that do not require a TV. I haven't had a TV since 1996, and I've still managed to watch every episode of Doctor Who, including all of "Series 11" with Jodie Whittaker, whose costume is almost as garish as was Colin Baker's.

    Technically, I do have a TV[1], although, I can't use it to watch TV (not hooked up to cable and thanks to terrain, I don't have line of sight to a single transmitter, so there's no over the air broadcasts available) ... it was due to a marketing quirk that when I need a replacement monitor, there was a 32" LCD TV that would work as a 1080p computer monitor on sale for about a hundred dollars less than the 32" LCD 1080p Computer Monitor I wanted for my PhotoShop computer.

    If there's a TV program that I think is worth watching, I find a way to watch it on this general use, "arguing with idiots on the internet" computer.

    [1] which is going the way of the Dodo just as soon as I get a video card for the PhotoShop computer that's capable of supporting 4K.

    I already have the 4K monitor that's going to replace it, but the video card has a max resolution of just under 2K ... the point being, I don't really have a TV, but that doesn't prevent me from watching TV if there's anything worth watching.

    I recognize however that I am in the U.S.A. where the government doesn't require you to have a license to watch TV, so YMMV.

    400:

    @393

    just my 2 cents

    "Who exactly are the 1 percent worldwide?

    Ranking by Income:

    According to the Global Rich List, a website that brings awareness to worldwide income disparities, an income of $32,400 a year will allow you to make the cut.

    Ranking by Wealth

    To reach the top 1 percent worldwide in terms of wealth – not just income but all you own – you’d have to possess $770,000 in net worth, which includes everything from the equity in your home to the value of your investments."

    (source https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/050615/are-you-top-one-percent-world.asp)

    401:

    I think the queen simply wants this madness to stop by October 31st.

    The brexit referendum was three years ago, and that is a long time for a country to be politically paralyzed.

    There are about a handful of possible outcomes, from cancelling the art50 notice over Mays Deal to no deal, and even with the forced holiday, Parliament can comfortably reach every single one of those outcomes.

    What she took away, was the option of diddling around, hoping for somebody to die and the by-election to move the needle, and the option of rolling the dice with a no-confidence and a general election.

    Now Oct31 is the firm deadline and Corbyn&Co either get their asses in gear or they get No Deal.

    I suspect the calculus is that if you got another extension from EU to hold a general election, the most probable result is the return of a hyper-partisan parliament which could still not find a majority for a decision.

    The second most probable result is that a majority of raving loonies in new parliament would force through No Deal.

    In other words: A G-E would be a waste of time in the two most probably outcomes.

    A very polarized parliament is a really bad starting point for handling a major political disaster.

    Doing the G-E after the decision is final, whatever the decision will be, disadvantages all the "I will force through _" single-talking-point candidates, and favour those candidates which can give usable answers to questions about how to implement the decision and fix the problems.

    402:

    The Monarch has two options; one is to accept constitutional tradition (sovereignty of Parliament, figurehead role, etc.) and the other is to assert divine right. That's it. It's a strict binary state.

    Now, constitutional tradition only works if everybody agrees on what they're doing; it's blindingly obvious that the Brexit tendency/faction/conspiracy DOES NOT agree that the modern UK is a good thing, inside the context and systems of which they are willing to accept losing votes and not getting their own way. They don't want that; they want to get whatever they want at arbitrary cost. You're looking at a failure of legitimacy, not a failure of political process. It's been a deliberate goal for a generation.

    May hauled the ghost of Great Harry out of the dark; Divine Right is a real thing in UK law for the first time in centuries. (Since 1688, I think, but by no means knowledgeable, never mind expert.) Before that, it'd be highly questionable that the Divine Right was there in practice rather than as an abstract moment of history from which present law derived over certain centuries by a number of constitutional steps.

    So the option is not "refuse to let the PM prorogue"; that doesn't do anything useful. (It might get ignored, it might get the monarchy abolished, who knows.) The only meaningful option is "we are most greatly displeased" and going full on Divine Right of Kings with half the government dragged to the Tower, tumbrils, a whole list of direct rule orders-in-council. (Presuming enough of the Army goes along with it.)

    The EU absolutely will not accept a divine-right monarch revoking Article 50. Revoking Article 50 is the (nearly only) important thing. Everything else is just arguing about where the bullet wounds go in the figurative body of the state.

    It would take a lot of executions to sway the near-certain "brexit at any cost" election results, because the xenophobia, racism, and ingrained exceptionalism are very real and the time frame to fix the stuff that sustained a political ability to tolerate not being able to expunge Johnny Foreigner is about ten years. (This is the stuff that Tory austerity has dismantled because they think it's immoral to help the poor.) Even if the direct decrees send the SAS to bring back the severed heads of tax exiles and you get a nakedly socialist funding formula for the National Health, it still takes about that long and a lot of that is still the accumulation of mortality. So it doesn't fix anything. It takes a monumental risk with the legitimacy of the monarchy to even say the things that would be necessary to find out if it's possible to ask the Army if they'd do it.

    If there were a strong democratic leader able to win an election after the monarchy said "right, this is a novel form of treason, with which Our Laws have not yet come to grips" and off-with-their-heads-ed the Brexit conspiracy, sure. With a younger monarch, that could conceivably work. In the present, no such leader exists; there is no acknowledgement (outside of Scotland) that the thing going on is not a political disagreement, but a collapse of legitimacy and civil order.

    Y'all don't need a political solution; you need a successor state.

    And, you know, the monarchy is not going to raze Eton to the ground figuratively or literally. It more or less can't, and Elizabeth the Old has spent a long lifetime serving the thing that isn't there anymore. Expecting someone over ninety to get all clever and inventive about creating a successor state is immensely futile.

    403:

    I suspect you may be right, to a certain extent forcing the issue was part of the calculation on what to do.

    To be clear I agree with many that I think Brexit, particularly no-deal Brexit, will be very bad for the UK (and given that is something of a generality, more specifically I suspect it will be very bad for a great many of the humans who live in the UK, and sadly may even have significant health impacts).

    But looking beyond that, there is no obvious solution to the problem as long as the country remains split almost evenly in two. If the poll I mentioned above is accurate then it is going to give a bunch of Conservative backbenchers pause in any thoughts of trying to stop Brexit if it looks like they can get re-elected by remaining loyal to Boris.

    But the bigger problem is that even if you do get Brexit stopped, there is nothing stopping the next government from restarting it (or more accurately given current attitudes, just giving notice and saying we are leaving no-deal).

    The inherent problem, which I would have to guess most European leaders are aware of, is that no matter what Parliament does or doesn't do Nigel Farage and his followers aren't going to disperse into the night if they somehow lose in the next 2 months. Instead the issue will continue to dominate British politics one way or another for the next decade.

    Thus I suspect, while they will never say it publicly, most European leaders at this point also view Oct 31 as a way to get rid of the madness.

    404:

    One presumes that Ruth Davison quietly polled her colleagues on this and either didn't get enough interest or declined to pursue it for her own reasons.

    405:

    Davison ran against the idea in the 2011 leadership contest, making a change in position difficult (at least in theory for a politician).

    406:

    Sorry, but that is simply not the way politics works.

    If anything it is almost never binary, as will be patently obvious if you look at the result of the "binary" Brexit referendum.

    In politics precise timing is often the decisive factor and she did not have to sign it the moment it landed on her table in her vacation, she could have sat on it until monday morning if she wanted to.

    Would that have changed anything ?

    Probably not with the split & dysfunctional opposition you have right now, but it would have indicated that she was not too eager to do let Boris get away with it.

    Implicit in your speculation is also that she would be pushing for something other than No Deal, and I see no evidence of that.

    I frankly don't think she really cares, in a "The country has survived worse" kind of detached way.

    But I think she wants an end to the uncertainty and political paralysis, which, if you think about it, is precisely what you would want a political back-stop to care about.

    We don't know what communication Boris and the Queen had beforehand, he may have asked for something different, and this was what she were willing to give him or he may not have asked for anything, and she suggested this, in order to prevent Parliament from dragging this out any further.

    Did you really think he just marched in, slammed this on the table saying "Sign!" ?

    That's not how politics work.

    And if you think about it, she did not take away Parliaments influence, they can still vote through everything from Remain to No Deal if they get their act together.

    All Boris really got from the queen was job security until October 31st, he did not get No Deal on Oct 31st.

    407:

    I had accounts cancelled because I hadn't made a call for months, which is morally nothing short of theft.

    In Australia the ACCC was less circumspect than you are and offered to get an opinion from the courts. As a result I got a refund from Vodafone for money that had "expired" and they now keep your SIM active for a year I think. Since you can buy prepaid plans that give you a year to use the credit I don't track the details, I just buy another $10 credit when I get the SMS that says they're about to deactivate the SIM (they give you 14 days and then 5 days notice).

    408:

    Yeah, we had to go low tek, bit brutalist but the other outcomes were worse. You might not think they have morality, but they do. Just a bit rougher. Had lots of accounts poked and general screaming about it (lots of 'is this really you?' 'send confirmation email' etc, it's usual when poking this level).

    Upshot: a really nice little community are having their emotional support ripped apart as an off-shoot of an old Minerva setup being run rotten. We'll check with ATHENA to see if she's happy.

    She's not.

    @ 362 -> 364, 366 -368 Are content free - or is there a tiny bit of signal in there?

    Depends on how interested you are in online drama, politics and Culture Wars[tm] stuff.

    You're not, so there's not.

    We're not, but we like them, thus the effort in forecasting.

    If you are, there's loads, but it was mainly a heads up to certain types that a Storm was Coming and to batten down and so on. Nods to Trash Panda - No Gods, No Masters. Lots of furs being hunted etc.

    Anyhow: upshot is that it's not GG2.0, it's gonna be tweaked into a serious discussion. In which certain Disney owned agencies might discover some things. We'll see.

    ~

    Speaking of which, we're having a hurricane discussion.

    Miami or not? Unlike last year, there's not so much good will willing to be spent.

    Miami full hit, Cat 5 then trawl upwards with an unusually strong reinforcement?

    That would be... unlucky.

    409:

    First images out of the Bahamas after Dorian aren't looking good.

    410:

    Miami full hit, Cat 5 then trawl upwards with an unusually strong reinforcement?

    Most recent forecast track says hammer the NW Bahamas for another 24 hours, then sharp right turn. Runs along the coast but offshore, no US landfall. Miami has a tropical storm watch, but not warning, and may just get some gusty wind and a bunch of rain.

    411:

    I frankly don't think she really cares, in a "The country has survived worse" kind of detached way.

    Oh, I think she cares a lot.

    I remember when George W's was president, and was pushing a strongly anti-globalist agenda, attempting to dismantle or undermine every international agency they could. At his state dinner with the Queen, she gave an hour-long about how marvellous the post-WW2 world order was, and how important it was that international institutions had created peace and prosperity.

    She likes international co-operation. A lot. Her formative years involved the Blitz, serious threat of invasion, and planning for a realistic risk of nuclear attack on London.

    I think she really likes the EU. And the Commonwealth. And the World Bank, and the UN, and the IMF, and etc. For very old-fashioned reasons regards how right now we live in longest period since the Roman Empire that no army has crossed the Rhine with fire and the sword.

    Whether she supports or opposes Brexit I wouldn't have the foggiest. But I'm sure that she likes the EU, and that she detests the current Brexit uncertainty.

    412:

    That's not what the current stuff says.

    Europe in particular says west splat.

    You're looking at aggregate probabilities.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather/

    Has a remarkably good community on this.

    But.

    Here's a tip: grep last years stuff on this, including the incredibly lucky one that missed Key West and so on.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49m1ro-Lnj0

    You're missing that we do Causal Weapons.

    And... you're running out of good will.

    1935, Labour Day.

    shrug

    Thoughts and Prayers.

    414:

    Or this

    Most recent dropsonde in #Dorian's eye has a "V" signature that indicates sinking air almost all the way to the ocean surface. This is an extreme signature, and very rare.

    The pressure when adjusted for surface wind is about 913mb.

    https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1168182385340538880

    And that's before your 24 hr stop-gap.

    Feeling Lucky?

    Thoughts and Prayers.

    415:

    1) accept whatever Boris decides 2) force a new referendum 3) force an election 4) no-deal Brexit

    I'm guessing that 1 and 4 are the same thing, and that 3 is also the same thing since there's no reason for the EU to expect another election to produce a different result (even if they dig into the details there aren't enough seriously vulnerable MPs in either no-deal or remain camps).

    As I said, if there's such a clear majority of MPs that they can force through a new election they can also force through the deal (the only deal, May's deal, whatever you want to call it). One suspects that Boris, faced with sufficient level of threat from a solid majority of parliament, would cave. But that solid majority doesn't exist and has not existed for years.

    Instead we have various fantasy lines that all start from the same premise: I am right, I do not need to change, all I have to do is speak slowly enough and loudly enough and those stupid other people will understand me and do what I tell them to do.

    Think of it as iterated prisoners dilemma where we are at round 100 and every single player has developed a long history of always-defect. You can't resolve that quickly if you can resolve it at all, unless you get an outside authority. But we have no reason at all to expect her to intervene, or to be successful if she tried. So we're left with a bunch of "keep doing the same thing and hope it works" people all yelling at each other.

    416:

    Miami full hit, Cat 5 then trawl upwards with an unusually strong reinforcement? The Dorian predictions so far have generated a lot of fear on the SE US coast. There was a cycle or two where Mar-a-Lago was at the center of the aggregate prediction cone, and that grabbed DJT's attention. (One model still has it hitting Mar-a-Lago.) The subsequent few aggregate forecasts had it hitting north of Mar-a-Lago and chewing up the (DJT voter) north coast of FL. But a Cat 4/5 is a serious engine of destruction and death. I've been in a little F1 tornado, it being east coast US just a bunch of trees falling down for 10-20 very extended seconds. The Bahamas are hurting. [You] hinted back then about one way hurricanes could be controlled. Reading with reverse-engineering mind, one reading (among a few) was something like controlled nucleation event rates ("random processes"), low latency sensory apparatus, and some even more arcane etc. I still say precision guided CMEs are HOP stunt engineering. :-) Also, in the same spirit I'll note that forecast runs can be manipulated with input tweeks (which can be real sensor readings, mixing things up further).

    Most recent dropsonde in #Dorian's eye has a "V" signature that indicates sinking air almost all the way to the ocean surface. This is an extreme signature, and very rare. That's ... interesting. I am intrigued. Thoughts and Prayers. VP Pence does not suggest much thought; mostly prayers. (You might have been ref-ing that or something similar actually. Credit to who I forget who TBH.)

    417:

    So, in a broadcast interview today, Gove explicitly and repeatedly refused to say that the government would follow laws passed by Parliament that they didn't like.

    From over here in Case Nightmare Orange, I'm wondering if that doesn't change Lizzie's calculus a bit. It's one thing to fill a role as a constitutional monarch, acting as the government directs in accordance with law and tradition. It's another to be complicit in the acts of a government which is consciously and deliberately throwing law and tradition to the wind -- all the more so if the government's object in doing this is pursuit of a reckless policy that's likely to impoverish a lot of the country and leave them searching for scapegoats. By the time that situation winds down, for the monarch to have performed as directed may not look like much of a defense -- for her or for the monarchy.

    It's possible that this will come to a head very quickly. The latest news that I'm reading is that the Tory politburo is threatening delisting for any party MP that votes to take control of Tuesday's order paper away from the government -- and more than one has publicly said on Twitter that they'll do it anyway. That could easily spiral into an election -- and the government's preannounced plan for circumstances requiring that is for Boris to schedule the election after Brexit day, continue to occupy No. 10 until, and continue his current policy toward the EU even if it results in No Deal. Which would be a deviation from prior norms severe enough that a monarch who put an end to it by dismissing him could arguably be viewed as restoring constitutional order.

    Which isn't to say she'd do it. But if there are ever circumstances where it might make sense for her to act on her own, it would be something like this.

    418:

    If the long range models of Dorian's course turn out to be accurate, it looks like the remnants of that storm ("Dorian Gray???") hit the UK, especially Scotland and Ireland, around September 11 or September 12.

    Something else to look forward to.

    419:

    In completely unrelated news Toby has a solution to the "real men don't like reusable shopping bags" survey that went round a week ago: steel manbags with webbing to hold military-style accessory pouches (cartoon) : https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/the-side-eye/01-09-2019/the-side-eye-whos-the-man/

    420:

    But if there are ever circumstances where it might make sense for her to act on her own, it would be something like this.

    Liz' first and foremost interest is in the Crown and its existence as a part of the British constitution into the future. Fucking with Parliament and the Government is the simplest fastest way to end the Monarchy there is so she's not going to do anything out of the blue, she's going to sit there.

    However if the Leader of the Opposition (no other minnows need apply) was to turn up at her door with a credible majority list of MPs who have agreed to accept him as the Prime Minister, providing confidence and supply then that would be another matter. A vote of no confidence is a Parliamentary affair that requires Parliament to be in session and it's one reason Boris has prorogued Parliament, to cut down on the time to work that particular ref.

    Bad news for you, Greg -- only baby-eating Jeremy Corbyn can bring forward a vote of no confidence in the House, as elected Leader of he Opposition. Pissing him off by trying to bypass and replace him in this fantasy Government of Tory Right-winger National Unity that's been floated by assorted not-Socialists is not helpful but the Press barons want it that way because, Socialist eeeeuw.

    421:

    one and four is not the same thing.

    She has specifically not given Boris NoDeal on a platter, but she has really motivated Parliament to get their shit together.

    As for Gove's coment:

    If Parliament were to pass another "We don't want No Deal" resolution without passing the necessary resolutions for what they actually do want, there would be nothing the Government could do with it except say "noted."

    Parliament will have to pass something actionable ("Ask for extension", "Cancel A50 notice" etc.)

    422:

    For those following developments in NI, dissident republican group Saoradh (already discussed in this thread) have issued an official statement to the effect that they are planning a new campaign of violence to capitalise on the disruption of Brexit.

    slow fucking clap, Brexiters

    423:

    “Dorian Grey”

    Only if there is a painting of a hurricane in and attic somewhere, looking pretty shabby.

    424:

    PHK @ 400 CORRECTION "I think the queen simply wants this madness to stop" - wouldbe correct. To those with the eyes to see she must hate this nonsense ...... Now Oct31 is the firm deadline and Corbyn&Co either get their asses in gear And that's the problem isn't it? Almost everybody EXCEPT Corbyn have now, just about got themseleves into gear, but he is still dithering - he's just so utterly incompetent.

    Graydon @ 401 NO IT IS NOT a "strict binary state" The monarch has a stated Constitutional Duty to "Advise & to Warn" - it's obvious that BOZO, beong him, has ignored all the advice & warnings ... now what ... rembering, as Charlie says, she is 92.

    Icehawk @ 410 SPOT ON There's a photograph of her at a state opening & address to Parliament, quite recently, where she's weaing a hat that is almost-but-not-quite the EU flag! Ah yes ... THERE YOU GO - a selection of the 2017 photos. But, if BOZO, or anyone is determined to push something through, against all the advice & warnings, then what?

    cdodgson@416 So, in a broadcast interview today, Gove explicitly and repeatedly refused to say that the government would follow laws passed by Parliament that they didn't like. THIS. This is autocracy & absolutism & a coup - & plainly planned in advance

    Ah yes .. Nojay @ 419 Actually, idiot, it would almost be better if JC was a baby-eater. I have already come to the conclusion that we can survive a Corbyn premiership PROVIDED we are inside the EU ... but it took a long time, because: !. He is utterly incompetent 2. He hasn't had a new idea since 1973 ( If not 1934 ) 3. As a long-time permanent rebel, the way he treats his own rebels is a disgrace 4. Like BOZO he is a traitor - just not as bad as BOZO

    YOU STILL DON'T GET IT DO YOU? Just because I'm to the right of Corbyn & to the left of (now) about 99% of the tory party, doesn't mean I'm a fascist - stop making enemies, - first move, which you seem determined not to make ... sigh.

    425:

    Why am I not surprised? :-( Let us just hope that the current Chief Constable has the spine to tell the Westminster idiots to stay the fuck out of it, and threaten to resign and go public if not. No, I have no idea if he (she?) is competent, but I am damn certain the others aren't.

    426:

    The most likely reason for her to dismiss Bozo is a Humble Address requesting just such an action; she would then be supporting Parliament against the Executive.

    Another possibility would be Bozo saying that he is planning to ignore a binding order from Parliament, but my guess is that he would NOT say that - just do it. Whereupon we add a constitutional clusterfuck to our political one.

    A third (less likely one) is a vote of no confidence too late to get Bozo out before the 31st. That would also enhance our current clusterfuck, but I doubt that she would act without a request from Parliament.

    There were several possible reasons other than the one claimed above to have signed the prorogation promptly. One was to give Bozo enough rope to hang himself, and another was to give his opponents maximum time to prepare. We simply don't know, but favouring a hard Brexit is not a likely one.

    427:

    I'm sorry, but I have to defend Gove a little bit here:

    If Parliament enacts another "We do not want No Deal Brexit" resolution without agreeing what they want instead, there is nothing the Government can do with it, except "take notice".

    Given what Parliament has done until now, that is absolutely a fair point for Gove to make.

    And yes, Corbyn is not the ideal leader of the opposition to have in this situation, but he is the one you got and either you make him work or you get No Deal Brexit on Oct 31.

    428:

    EC @ 425 The most likely reason for her to dismiss Bozo is a Humble Address requesting just such an action; she would then be supporting Parliament against the Executive. GOT IT 100% legal & in accord with all the conventions. Now then, do they have the time & the co-ordination?

    429:

    So. Many. Variables.

    -What are the capabilities/connections of Saoradh?

    -How will mainstream republicanism respond (and how will Brexit effect this response)?

    -Will the violence remains small scale?

    -What is the PSNI (Police Service NI) resourcing level like?

    -What institutional experience remains for dealing with a serious and co-ordinated terrorist campaign?

    -What is the Chief Constable likely to do?

    -What is Westminster likely to do (in the presumed continued absence of NI Assembly)?

    And those are just the things I can think of off the top of my head.

    430:

    What institutional experience remains for dealing with a serious and co-ordinated terrorist campaign?

    ... and is it capable of being re-purposed to look at white people?

    I mean, you would bloody hope so given British experience in NI, but given the sheer quantity of reckless stupidity in that area wrt the government trying to radicalise British Muslims, it would not surprise me to find that the "white terrorism" department is two old geezers in a dilapidated office somewhere near Hadrian's Wall, all prepared for the southward march of the Scots (or the islanders to declare a Danish Republic... if it's good enough for Greenland it's good enough for Shetland)

    431:

    Not a valid question or comparison, I am glad to say.

    The PSNI is operationally separate from the police services in the rest of the UK; any institutional memory is derived from it's predecessor, the RUC, whose primary experience of terrorism was via the organisations engaged in terrorist acts during the years of the Troubles (which didn't involve a lot of non-white combatants).

    The idea of "re-purposing" this experience to apply to "white terrorism" is kind of a category error.

    432:

    Prior "anti-No-Deal" amendments offered in Parliament would have required the PM to request an Article 50 extension from the EU27, if the No Deal cliff were approaching and no other arrangements had been reached. There is, of course, no guarantee that the EU27 would grant the request, but it is something that can be reasonably required of the executive.

    (IIRC, the amendment that was offered in the last round did not dictate the form of the request -- which left open the possibility that the PM of the time would request an extension in accordance with the law, but attach conditions that the EU27 would find unacceptable. This time, who knows?)

    434:

    The majority of the NI population are now non-aligned. More than 50%, per current polling, do not identify as Unionists or Republicans. They just want to get along.

    NI politics has been static for a long time - people either vote for the Unionist/Loyalist or the Nationalist/Republican, and the only change has been a slow increase in the Nat/Rep side and a corresponding drop in the Uni/Loy side (this is entirely attributable to a differential in the birth rates) and changes in which party dominates the two sides (in 1980, that was UUP on the Uni/Loy side and SDLP on the Nat/Rep side; now it's DUP and Sinn Fein, and UUP and SDLP are minor parties).

    The Alliance Party has been the party of "can we please not have to pick sides?". They are sometimes described as "soft unionists" because they work within the existing structures, but they have regularly worked with both sides (they got death threats and intimidation a few years ago after working with Sinn Fein so Belfast City Hall now only flies the Union Jack on flag days instead of every day - hard to describe that as "soft unionist"). They traditionally got fuck-all votes, mostly from immigrants (ie people who don't align with one of the two factions), mixed-marriages (Protestant and Catholic; rare) and a small minority of liberal middle-class people who don't really do nationalism. Very popular with the LGBT+ community.

    Anyway, there was an election earlier this year (for the European Parliament), and they came second, ahead of the unionist parties, behind only Sinn Fein. The people who don't identify mostly didn't bother voting previously. But this time, they came out in numbers and voted Alliance. Naomi Long, the leader of Alliance, now an MEP, is one of the most capable and tough politicians in all of the UK. An opinion poll over the weekend has Alliance winning one DUP MP seat and within 1% in two more. The DUP are pissing off voters left and right at the moment, so a general election is liable to crack their hegemony over unionism. And, if Long becomes an MP again in a parliament as febrile as this, then don't bet against her as a compromise PM, or at least a high-ranking minister. She's really good.

    435:
    But some kinds of relationships, particular Norway(+) does not need the WA, because for all *practical* purposes UK would still be a member of EU, only seated at the kids table wearing a bib with the letters "Proud non-EU Member".

    You may be confusing the WA and the backstop. Even in the case of Norway+ the WA is still necessary as it is the WA that defines, among other things, the UK's financial responsibilities to the EU.

    There is also the question of what "Norway+" means. If it means EFTA membership + CU membership there is the minor problem that it's impossible -- the EFTA countries have their own customs union which is incompatible with the EU customs union.

    Which is why "Norway" is not a solution -- there is are hard borders between the EFTA countries and the EU, so a "Norway" solution is incompatible with the WA backstop and the GFA.

    I reiterate -- the WA is the necessary precondition for all negotiated solutions between the EU and the UK. And will remain so even if the UK leaves without a "deal",

    cdodgson is right in #371 when he points out that the equivalent of the WA available after a no-deal would be significantly worse as it would not include the transition period.

    436:

    @400 I will guess that JBS would restrict those measures to be within the 'major locally contiguous cultural area' - states or nations or somesuch. When talking about the 1%, 32k, eg, in some regions is suitable for living in your parents basement. One of friends earns more and lives there - out of financial necessity. For the US, a regional income of 1% is 300k or so, which seems more reasonable.

    @JBS By the age of adulthood - measures of ability are reasonably concrete, for a certain measure of reason. I've tried training motivated people for jobs they weren't quite fit for - it rarely succeeds. (Writing skill in particular is problematic.)

    Now, the thing is - by the point of adulthood - there is a lot of inequality. You can start from genes and nutrition, which is maybe 40%. Then, if you want to stop worrying and love global warming, read 'Turning gold into lead' - stars survey. Turns out the best predictors of adverse adult outcomes (heart failure, obesity, major depression, drug addiction,...) is child abuse - at high incidence. (Okay, they also include stuff like spousal abuse and molestation...and there are a whole host of arguments to be made about comorbidity). But, eh, the incidence was high enough to make me wonder if extinction would actually be bad.

    If you are lucky enough to dodge all that - then you start worrying about class advantages - like better training and starting position and wealth.

    But, see, my argument would be that, even if a given adult is unlikely to do well with reasonable opportunity offered - (yes, Trump level spoons would help any creature, but society can't afford and probably shouldn't either) - but the thing is that modest increases in resources - maybe a basic income will tend to improve children's futures.

    Still, I'd prefer to sink that money into a really boffo expensive foster care system combined with extensive parental support, monitoring, and removal. It'd probably have much more effect. People won't stand for it - as something like 20% of children would probably end up in foster care - and ideally their parents end in prison. Note, not end up.

    But, still, this assertion that the 1% are some sort of unusual monolithic block - seems inaccurate. Sure, you can make the argument that any current member of the 1% has chosen to keep wealth - but that isn't unusual in people in any wealth bracket.

    437:

    I'd argue about the accuracy of some of your statements, although would absolutely agree that Naomi Long is an extremely tough and capable politician.

    NI politics has been static for a long time ... the only change has been a slow increase in the Nat/Rep side and a corresponding drop in the Uni/Loy side (this is entirely attributable to a differential in the birth rates) I have some quibbles with your first paragraph: It over generalises I think, but I won't bore the readership here with a detailed discussion of NI voting patterns (it's easy to google in any case). Summary: Small decrease since 1998 for Unionism (about 6% less, biggest drop 2016 to 2017); fluctuating inconsistent increase for Nationalism (between less than 1% and around 2%); increase for non-aligned (a bit under 6%). Don't forget, this is the percentage of people who voted, not percentage of the electorate. For a long time, anyone who didn't feel comfortable on the Green/Orange axis often stayed away from voting altogether, as illustrated in your final paragraph where when mobilised it becomes clear that there are in fact a lot of potential "non-aligned" voters out there. I don't think I agree at all with the "birth rate" part of your statement; it absolutely is contributory, but only paints part of the picture.

    The Alliance Party ... sometimes described as "soft unionists" They do attract "small u" Unionists, more so over the last few years, but I haven't heard them referred to as "soft unionists" except by Nationalists tying to force them onto the good ol' Green/Orange axis (see my comments about electoral strategy @255). Similar tot he Unionists who tend to always use labels like "Sinn Fein/Alliance" or "pan-nationalist conspiracy".

    mixed-marriages (Protestant and Catholic; rare) Estimates from a decade ago were for approximately 1-in-10 NI marriages being Protestant/Catholic mixed. Anecdotally the percentage of people I know in mixed marriages is significantly higher than that, and I would guess that the country-wide ratio has increased in the last 10 years. I would not describe "mixed marriages" as "rare".

    I'm not sure what your experience of NI is (I assume you live here, or at least are paying more attention to the politics than most), but it doesn't entirely gel with mine.

    438:

    And there are serious rumours swirling that another GE is going to be called prior to the proroguation?

    WTF?

    439:

    I don't know where those came from, but AIUI you'd need to get all the turkeys, er Cons and about 60 of the opposition to vote for it.

    440:

    You can't argue that an election is anti-democratic.

    (You can argue about the conduct of a particular election, but not the general case.)

    The goal is to get No-Deal Brexit. Important people make serious money from No Deal. If you have to argue that an election is inappropriate if it makes it impossible to revoke Article 50 it's easy for the Brexit side to insist that whether that should happen is what the election is about, and there's only an election because Parliament couldn't agree on anything, an election is what you're meant to do when Parliament can't agree. It sounds good, and never mind how things go that way.

    So, PR firm advising disaster capitalists. Prorogation isn't polling well.

    (Disaster capitalists. No empathy. No concern for the pile of corpses; the only real difference between disaster capitalism and colonialism is where it happens and who it happens to. Longing for empire is, in a certain class, longing for being allowed to maximize profit irrespective of the pile of corpses.)

    Maybe they have to rejoin the EU on unfavourable terms because May's deal is the ONLY deal and has to be signed first; maybe they can spend however long looting the place. They're post-nationalist capitalism-without-limits (and borders are limits) non-state actors (the Mob 3.0), they want all the money absent all laws and taxes. It looks like the Little Englanders can give them that for quite awhile in return for an increase in local whiteness by whatever means.

    441:

    The problem with Corbyn, beyond those you have already identified, is that he wants to both be a cause for the problem and also wave the bloody shirt afterwards. Given the usual press response to "commies" I don't think he has the slightest chance of arranging this.

    Of course, his fellow Labour MPs aren't giving him much room to maneuver - his other job as a Labour leader is to make sure the "Blairite" wing of the party doesn't come into power, because that factions interest in the proletariat begins and ends with the idea that some naive union member might give them money.

    It would be very useful at this point if Labour could agree on some kind of a compromise candidate for leader, get behind them, and spend as much time as possible tearing the Tories a new waste disposal orifice over Brexit and lies. Unfortunately, the time to do that would have been a year ago...

    Just my Yankee opinion on Corbyn, probably knowing less than I should.

    When does the revolution start?

    442:

    "It looks like the Little Englanders can give them that for quite awhile in return for an increase in local whiteness by whatever means."

    And what a crappy deal it is! That's the boggling part.

    443:

    Used to be, students would get onto Usenet, get educated, and mostly become civilized. Then we got Endless September as the available informal ad-hoc educational resources got overwhelmed.

    Used to be, the magical-thinkers, the innumerate, and the socially incapable couldn't have much effect on politics because they couldn't organize themselves. Social media makes them organizable, and they were there; it's easier to create a faction than to take on over.

    So you get the party of won't-accept-quantitative-analysis, and it's useful to wealth, since any amount of quantitative analysis is enough for the meanest intelligence to conclude that the wealth must stop that, right now, and then pay for their crimes.

    Once you've got that party, you can get anything on the agenda; it's a weaponized rampaging id. The effort to constrain it makes the additional effort of insisting that the wealth stop much much more difficult to do; so long as that's true, it's funded. This is about like the problems brought on by printing presses, only they didn't have agricultural collapse teetering on the brink in the bargain.

    444:

    Troutwaxer @ 441 Actually, I had identified that double problem, just not expressed it all well. You have & thank you ... that's precisely JC's facing-both-ways position. And, people have noticed, which is why they think, quite correctly, that he is only marginally more trustworthy than BOZO It would be very useful at this point if Labour could agree on some kind of a compromise candidate for leader, get behind them, and spend as much time as possible tearing the Tories a new waste disposal orifice over Brexit and lies. Unfortunately, the time to do that would have been a year ago... YES

    445:

    "...are going to darn well sound the alarm when ..."

    ...they find out, by which time it's too late. The money has vanished and the bots are already harvesting the next batch of compromised mobile phones with their unsuspecting owners' bank details on for round 2. And any actually intelligent enforcement is swearing black and blue at the whole progression of ideas since it's so much harder to figure out what's really going on when you have to sieve the dodgy bits out of all the stuff the legitimate owners are doing instead of having it neatly packaged in accounts that are used for nothing else.

    Your "end point" is a fleabite and not an end point at all, because you are missing the wider aspects of the obsession with cheap-arsed policing using spam filters instead of cops. Straightforward policing by spam filter does not work in a society with strong protections in the legal system to ensure that it delivers impartial justice instead of morphing into an organisation for rubber-stamping authoritatian abuse, because such a system of protections sets high standards which the shitty "evidence" from spam filters doesn't come anywhere near meeting. So on its own all it gets you is a court system paralysed by the deluge of appeals against spam filter prosecutions.

    In order to prevent this happening they simply dismantle the fucking protections. People are forced to behave in such a way as to expose all evidence in a form which is unambiguously accessible by the spam filter at all times, regardless of whether they're even doing anything wrong, let alone undergoing legal process. If they are undergoing legal process, then such things as innocent-until-proven-guilty, right to silence, right to challenge the evidence or indeed the whole prosecution, freedom from arbitrary arrest, and lots of other really important stuff, are all thrown out the window in the holy cause of making the spam filter prosecution unchallengeable.

    This isn't something that just breaks things which are purely technological and non-essential like payment cards. The arseholes' distaste for paying cops' wages is far greater than that. They want to apply it to things in the real world as well - and it is already happening to enable automatic prosecution by software grinding camera images. Speed cameras are the most obvious example, but they were just a convenient wedge to introduce precedents for dismantling the legal protections by using a load of specious bollocks about road safety to paint anyone who objected as a baby-eater. It's not at all impossible that they will proceed to breaking things like walking - lamp post camera doesn't recognise you as you walk past so it orders you to turn round and smile nicely at it until it does, and shoots you with a trank dart if you don't comply, real Fahrenheit 451 stuff and we are on a path that heads closer to such a situation, not away.

    446:

    "If governments want to survive, they have to be able to compel corporates to pay taxes."

    Ah well, corporates (and their employees), that's a different kettle of fish - that's things engaged in legal pursuits and dodging taxes by legal means. All the governments have to do there is change the regulations so that those means are no longer legal. They just have to lose their addiction to the taste of rich arse that led them to enable the means in the first place.

    447:

    "I have already come to the conclusion that we can survive a Corbyn premiership PROVIDED we are inside the EU"

    And it is essential if we are not, because the alternative is the wreckers rampaging gleefully through the wreckage grabbing unhindered the full measure of whatever the fuck the advantage they reckon to get out of it is and fuck the rest of us.

    448:

    Ah well, corporates (and their employees), that's a different kettle of fish - that's things engaged in legal pursuits and dodging taxes by legal means.

    Ashby's Law; you have to provide equivalent variety to have a control system that works. Laws have real problems generating sufficient control variety because they're on human timescales. Lots of the commercial systems generate way more variety than the legal system -- everything from primary legislation through regulation through enforcement budgets and priorities -- can handle. This would be factual even in a context of perfect virtue and a total disdain for biases supported by money.

    The "constrain variety" fix -- simply don't allow that -- means that a system which does allow that and gets the productivity benefits, even if they're only medium term productivity benefits (before capitalism kills the ecological support services), destroys all in its path out of sheer logistical superiority. Any alternative has to win fights with the thing you don't like, you can't just ban it. (I think the impulse to just ban it has a lot to do with the move toward autarchy in current politics.)

    So what you're seeing is real, but it's real because there's no way to provide matching variety through hiring police. No amount of humans is enough to identify illegal acts in the financial system. (Nor is it helpful to surrender the productive capacity of so many people!)

    It really does take unpronounceable true names and private -- in the sense of "not known" -- derived names-of-reference in a public validation system to solve this one. (Or some mathematical equivalent.) It'd be helpful if that was more widely understood. It can't be solved by insisting on effectively 18th century rights; the system produced in context of those rights isn't sufficiently able to generate control variety. The people seeing it as a barrier aren't wrong, irrespective of their motives. It will take new means to maintain those ends.

    449:

    In order to prevent this happening they simply dismantle the fucking protections. People are forced to behave in such a way as to expose all evidence in a form which is unambiguously accessible by the spam filter at all times, regardless of whether they're even doing anything wrong, let alone undergoing legal process. Thanks for answering that in style. As an american I'm often wondering whether or not a serious concern about privacy (and every-more-capable surveillance tech) is an outlier position in developed countries. (The US doesn't have a solid right to privacy, but it does have plenty of space and very rural areas.) Also thanks for the answer to Graydon at 446. I'll add that there are other things that governments do to survive, some that involve active suppression of dissent, and making it hard nearing impossible to organize dissent without the full knowledge of the government is part of this.

    451:

    re #435 (John Hughes).

    Yes whatever happens, we're now in the position of having to sign the WA before getting a trade agreement of any form with the EU (even if presented after a 'no deal' crash out).

    However the WA is not incompatible with an EFTA/EEA (aka Norway) approach. That is because none of the EFTA states have identical agreements under the EEA framework, they each have country specific protocols.

    We would not need to enter a CU with the EU (and as you say it is sort of incompatible with EFTA/EEA), because its useful effects can be replicated by other means. The main one being simply that we (unilaterally) align tariffs with the EU schedule. So called 'Roles of Origin' are not a border issue, being something validated behind the border as a paperwork anti-fraud measure.

    Norway has a 'hard border' for a number of reasons, differential tariffs (garlic being one that triggered smuggling at one point), agreements not covering all items, and VAT.

    So for us to achieve an essentially 'frictionless border' would require that in our country specific protocol we unilaterally shadow the EU tariffs for essentially all items, that we conclude some sort of VAT agreement, and that we widen our EEA agreement to include something like CAP and CFP for some period of time.

    We'd also want to ensure that we did not agree to anything equivalent to the CCP - this is the bit which causes the EFTA/EEA incompatibility, not the CU. The two are distinct sections in the Treaty of Rome (TFEU now I believe).

    However, if we do end up with the no deal crash out, I'm not expecting our politico's to have the sense to do the above.

    Which then means if (more likely when) Scotland leaves the UK, we should join EFTA/EEA in Scotland, rather than immediately (if ever) seek entry to the EU.

    That is for a few reasons, not least of which is that new EU members have to join Schengen, which is incompatible with the CTA, then requiring passports checks at places we currently avoid them. Also that currently most of Scotland's trade is with the rest of the UK, and EFTA/EEA would allow us to more easily keep that going (possibly only until trade was re-balanced towards EEA members).

    452:

    "Herself reminds me that Policing is a devolved issue and before Javid could ship Glaswegian cops to Ulster, he'd have to get Nicola Sturgeon's permission. Which is likely to come in the shape of a declaration along the lines of "over my dead body" if she's got any sense (and she has)."

    As I understand it, devolution was basically a privilege granted by Parliament, and could therefore be rescinded at will.

    And if that doesn't work, states of emergency.......

    453:

    new EU members have to join Schengen, which is incompatible with the CTA,

    It could be argued that Scotland would not be a new member but a returning member and hence not necessarily subject to Schengen. If nothing else this fig-leaf might be useful in tempting England back eventually under the same fudge.

    454:

    You seem to assume that Scotland would not want to be part of Schengen ?

    455:

    I don't think "plain Norway" has ever been on the table from either side. The "Norway plus" model that has been bantered about, is "plain Norway" plus so much alignment that the Irish border becomes unnecessary.

    That is plus a LOT, essentially keeping UK a EU member, but without voting rights.

    Not going to happen, but it is still one of the theoretical endpoints Parliament could reach, if they wanted to.

    Otherwise, I fully agree: The most unpalatable parts of the Mays Agreement will be waiting for UK's negotiators in BXL, no matter why they decide to drop in.

    456:

    Suspect whether or not they can will be a moot point, as the question is would the EU agree to an extension for no reason. My guess is no, and thus the UK still leaves on Oct 31st.

    Without an election or a referendum (which would basically force the EU hand) there is nothing to gain for the EU to extend the decision yet again with no consensus on a way forward in sight, particularly given the MPs have treated the first extension with contempt by wasting it.

    For the sake of people in the UK I hope I'm wrong.

    457:

    Assuming that was actually directed at me, rather than Nojay...

    I make no such assumption. I am arguing that it is as economically daft for Scotland to take a "hard exit" from the UK, as it is for the UK to do so from the EU. That is what would happen if Scotland immediately joined the EU.

    I'd guess it may take 10-20 years for Scotland's economy to realign such that it could cope with a hard border with England and NI. As such the sensible approach would be to join EFTA/EEA for a period.

    We should learn the lesson of the UK taking a daft approach to Brexit, and take a gradual approach to fixing things.

    Personally I'd think Scotland could do quite well in EFTA/EEA, rather than joining the EU; however that would be a decision to be taken after the economy could cope with barriers to rUK.

    e.g. Fishing is a small part of the UK economy, but proportionally a larger part of Scotland's (I don't know the figures). In joining the EU the waters would once again become community waters, whereas is staying in EFTA/EEA we could follow Iceland's and Norway's approach using them as a sensible bargaining asset.

    As to Schengen, I'm not sure it would really gain us much, and it has definite costs. So it is a pro vs con analysis.

    We're used to using passports when entering the area, and as EEA members could still do so. Similarly we're used to not needing any form of ID when traveling in these isles (unless flying), which is a convenience I suspect many would wish to preserve.

    I'm not sure if EEA members can use "National ID cards" for travel in the area, but since Scotland sort of has one (Bus pass) maybe that would be possible.

    As to arguing that Scotland would be a returning member, I don't believe that would fly. The recent accession states would object, and at most we'd have a time limited derogation.

    EEA membership gives us most of the "rights" people are interested in, and cuts out a bunch of the political stuff people complain about. Recall that 40% of Scots voted for Brexit.

    The EEA acquis is around 25 - 30 % of the EU acquis, we would also have input to shaping the measures (which Norway has successfully used in the past), and anyway a lot of the measures come from higher international fora where we could directly influence stuff (as Norway does) before they're adopted by the EU, and at worst we can reject adopting certain measures (while incuring appropriate balancing measures).

    So I don't accept the characterization of "fax democracy", or "pay no say" - that is as trite as some of the Brexit arguments. The reality is more nuanced.

    458:

    Miami full hit, Cat 5 then trawl upwards with an unusually strong reinforcement?

    GFS 18z through 84hr

    Sept 02 22.59 GMT

    https://imgur.com/a/zb5IqbX

    "This is straight up insanity that literally all of the east coast could be affected by this monster HOLY SHIT"

    Weird it just sat there sationary for so long though. Guessing the Big Boys are feeling a little bit unappreciated right now, might be tweaking for something more memorable.

    459:

    GFS 104 hr https://imgur.com/a/4KqDVrd

    Oh, and of course: https://www.newsweek.com/hurricane-dorian-relief-charity-donate-1457255

    Stalling like that? Brutal. Savage. Rekt.

    Given the cluster-fuck of PR, don't expect any of the supplies to get there or be distributed though.

    Then again, BJ just stated that he didn't want an election while LK (BBC), SKY and The Telegraph all reported that one was live for the 14th Oct.

    Ooops.

    460:

    As I understand it, devolution was basically a privilege granted by Parliament, and could therefore be rescinded at will.

    Sure they could, if they didn't mind a civil war breaking out in the province where we keep all our nuclear weapons.

    461:

    "She has specifically not given Boris NoDeal on a platter, but she has really motivated Parliament to get their shit together."

    Remember that you don't literally have to serve it up on a platter to accomplish that.

    From my understanding, the only way to avoid a No Deal would be for a large number of people in Parliament to coordinate an extremely large amount of effort in an extremely short time.

    462:

    mdive @ 456 If Wednesday's motion passes - as I expect it to ... Then, unfortuantely I would expect BOZO to call a General Election - for AFTER 31st October ... Cue Constitutional Crisis

    463:

    "Sure they could, if they didn't mind a civil war breaking out in the province where we keep all our nuclear weapons."

    I have been thinking of that. Scotland has the Trident port - how can they leverage that?

    464:

    Someone who hasn't ignored us tell Barry about Scottish politics, St. Andrews and how Scottish Regiments function. i.e. a couple are more loyal to the Crown than most English regiments.

    465:

    You absolutely do not leverage that; nuclear hostage-taking, even the faintest whiff of nuclear hostage taking, even if what you're taking hostage are the nukes, won't do at all.

    You might well decide that, well. There's all that election tampering; there's the obvious risk of malign actors, what with the disregard for the ancient parliamentary norms and customs upon which English law has been constructed these several centuries. Mustn't have a failed state or even a rogue political actor in charge of SLBMs. Let's invite in a French peacekeeping group under EU auspices to secure the submarine port at Holy Loch. They've got their own SLBMs, they'll have the right kind of experts to avoid lamentable errors. And I'm sure that once everything has been regularized to the norms of civilization it will be no especial difficulty to resolve the disposition of the SLBM force.

    466:

    Oh, and @PrivateIron

    You know the #1 thing you shouldn't do when this stuff kicks off?

    Make a #ThingsWeShouldCancel Twitter trend artificially kick off. You know, to boost "Cancel Culture".

    They're mapping your networks and it's hilarious how shallow the PR stuff is. They're on the cusp of learning how paper-thin the TAA stuff is, and hilariously close to working out just how badly you lied to them.

    If you've tracked Iranian counter agents (you know, the ones who the CIA didn't get killed by a shit piece of code) via embedded data (faked location) but topic and so on. Oh, I don't know. Do a grep over a wizard over a black hole piccy from a J. K. Rowling thread which was a UK asset who then got ganked).

    You're this close to the actual Cats coming through the Veil.

    "Kill Zer"

    Yeah.

    We have seen and danced beyond your veil and your shitty stuff is meaningless and trite

    Want the Real Void?

    Oh Honey. Go track Dorian, might give you a hint.

    467:

    Greg @166 A port in north County Dublin as a replacement for Dublin Port has been mooted, though I'm not sure if it's even reached the drawing board.

    469:

    It's great to see the turnout for the protests, though the references to Cromwell were a bit...tone deaf...given how Brexit impacts the border and Peace Process.

    My favourite protest slogan: Prorogue mo thóin

    470:

    Sounds nice.

    Sounds like you should start doing something instead of waving signs.

    8:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 2

    Location: 26.8°N 78.4°W

    Moving: Stationary

    Min pressure: 942 mb

    Max sustained: 140 mph

    "This is absolute insanity"

    Come on now. I expected a bit more of a fight than just some signs on our return. We need a little bit more drama than that.

    Oh, right, you killed all of them who came and tried to rescue us.

    Well, little miss stealing Irish Valor with the Red Hair and the Language, we'll do a bit more than that.

    Someone tell the UK officials that that Power breakage stunt and the airport stunt and the railways stunt and so on and so and so on... You're faking what you think threat perception is. Heck, if any of you had any balls (SHINY XMAS BALLS) you'd leak the fucking contracts for it.

    Y' know: on the cusp of a £3billion sale of a major airport franchise to some EU / CN conglomerate, and after all that Parliamentary pressure, you might have had the balls to not go with the fucking Mickey-Mouse "well, the environmental protester story got spiked, so go for a random Hobbyist" and shove it up your arse.

    Wait: Host is going to get sued?

    LOL

    Anyone who targets Host gets Major Fucking Mind Worms and Us visit them. Don't worry about Host.

    What's the worst that can happen when you threaten us? Your entire Country going insane or some batshit nonsense like that, eh?

    "ZE DOESN'T KNOW"

    471:

    NO! If you actually go through with Brexit you are no long allowed to have nukes!

    472:

    8:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 2/Location: 26.8°N 78.4°W/Moving: Stationary/Min pressure: 942 mb/Max sustained: 140 mph/"This is absolute insanity" Have to say I've been enjoying Levi Cowan at https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits - thanks for the link. He's seriously interested and has a good voice and is clear at 2X video.

    General interest, press focus on emotions a bit unusual, written on US labor day or day before. Along Hurricane Dorian’s Tortured Path, Millions Are United in Fear (Sept. 2, 2019)

    473:

    Not really, hurricanes do just either stall or move so slowly effectively stalled on a regular basis. My parents told a story of a hurricane doing that somewhere off the Bahamas back in the late 60s.

    474:

    The problem is that Boris can't call an election, though he can sort of ask Parliament to give him one.

    The three methods of getting an election outside of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act (from David Allen Green Twitter account)

    • two votes of no confidence
    • a 2/3 majority votes for the election (which May used in 2017, and hence why Boris can "request" an election).
    • Parliament passes primary legislation to hold an election despite the FTPA.
    475:

    Not really, hurricanes do just either stall or move so slowly effectively stalled on a regular basis. My parents told a story of a hurricane doing that somewhere off the Bahamas back in the late 60s.

    CAT 4/5 don't.

    There's been 4 cases (including this) and well, do your research young lad. Certainly not on the N side of an island.

    The "Big Boys" just got joined by our Sister. grep 2/3 Furies. They're kinda bored of the good noble Greta getting shit from bedbug level WASPs and Ultra-Nasc Zionists hiding behind fake cover so they're going to do a number.

    Pop Quiz: Can you name more than one Fury?

    No, You can't. [Hogging all the limelight as usual]

    General interest, press focus on emotions a bit unusual, written on US labor day or day before. Along Hurricane Dorian’s Tortured Path, Millions Are United in Fear (Sept. 2, 2019)

    Trump doesn't elicit fear.

    You fear the chaos / random / uncertainty. Until the market prices it in. You do know that Wall St. has ~70+ years of investing in Foreign Markets run by Dictators and that they, and the CIA, much prefer that to Democracy? Color me surprised if you think they haven't already priced Orange Trumpanzy already?

    That was day 3 of his Reign.

    You don't fear the man.

    There's a couple of Shakespeare plays about this.

    No-one feared Bush. They feared the men behind Bush.

    This is nothing of the sort behind Trump, apart from one of our kind. Oh, there's a couple of IL hard-cases, a few CIA Dominionists and a son in Law who is 100% groomed to be An American Psycho - but fear? It's more annoying distaste coupled with the admittance that you might have to be nice to them while they sign another bum deal.

    Want to know fear?

    Hint: if you say yes: it's a contract. And you get one of the real old ones (before Yahawwaaa bollocks) saying hello.

    Y/N?

    476:

    The tweets might have been slightly wrong, in that I don't see any requirement for 2 votes of no confidence, but that relevant part of the act can be seen at http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted and it is clear the PM can't simply call an election early, it requires Parliament to do it and in very specific ways.

    477:

    You fear the chaos / random / uncertainty. Until the market prices it in. I was mainly commenting on a front page NYTimes article about fear. Focused on a hurricane, but implicitly recognizing that fear is used as a political tool. As you quoted up-thread, Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. Not looking for an order (or orders) of magnitude more of it. (May come with time and climate change and etc, though.) We (general human population) need more of I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. I can read your comment as saying almost the same thing. (The POTUS irritates me (trying to keep it under control), yes.)

    478:

    Ok, we'll give you one last hint.

    'All bets now off' on which ape was humanity's ancestor

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-49486980

    Then do a grep. We might have trolled you about your ancestry a few times. What's it up to now since the start? 4 or 5? It's hilarious that you imagine you're some kind of pure breed or neth-mix or denis-mix etc.

    Then check the dates.

    Did G_D stop on day 6, introduce Tinder/Grindr and shrug?

    -.-

    476

    I can read your comment as saying almost the same thing. (The POTUS irritates me (trying to keep it under control), yes.)

    No. And we've watched enough of your shitty horror movies to know what you consider horror. Heck, we've lived through a couple of your genocides.

    Want to know fear?

    You know, apart from the Foucault inspired Panopticon that you've already done[1], you're pretty much bad at horror. It's all body horror or fear or crappy physical stuff.

    Fuck it - "Take Zer Wings" was already run live in an attempt to break our Mind, so you're getting the full spread.

    11 Contacts in hand. 12 now.

    And these fuckers only do War.

    "Warboy"

    Jamie, what's that large grass / moss covered mountain on its own in the top left of the shot and no, we don't smoke either.

    Horror is the prevention of Change or Progress.

    Look at what's being enacted. It's not Horror, it's MIND stability. The old Huxley A/B/C/D/G Minds stuff.

    With a chip.

    Now then:

    Hint: if you say yes: it's a contract. And you get one of the real old ones (before Yahawwaaa bollocks) saying hello.

    Y/N?

    [1] https://theintercept.com/2019/08/25/border-patrol-israel-elbit-surveillance/

    479:

    03 Sept 02:48

    Cat 4 Hurricane remains stalled.

    Not really, hurricanes do just either stall or move so slowly effectively stalled on a regular basis. My parents told a story of a hurricane doing that somewhere off the Bahamas back in the late 60s.

    You sure about that, little man?

    480:

    It's not Horror, it's MIND stability.

    This is a sick joke.

    Facebook VR session everyone but Zuck wearing the goggles.jpg

    Still.

    It's not moving.

    481:

    Horror is the prevention of Change or Progress. Homogeneity and stasis are horrors to me, yes. I desire a future with a very large number of heteregenous mind types including humans, and change (including to already-existing minds), and freedom/no(non-consensual)slavery. (Not just minor shifts e.g. ephemeral fashion; real change of the sort that biological evolution accomplishes though slowly and blindly.) Oh and no amping up of lesser forms of horror. It is not clear from your question whether the Old One would deliver such desires or their inverse. (I do read contracts carefully.)

    482:

    We're scaring the shit out of the ones behind the ones who run the ones you find scary who run the Presidents and the TV stars and so on.

    It's a Flex.

    That cost ~300k people their entire lives, property and the kill count is up to 20+ atm, but hey.

    They don't respect -null damage.

    483:

    Facebook VR session everyone but Zuck wearing the goggles.jpg I am reminded of Lem's The Futurological Congress: From the Memoirs of Ijon Tichy (Ijon Tichy #3) by Stanisław Lem, Michael Kandel Translator) (Last read it maybe 10 years ago; seemed kinda tame by then.)

    They don't respect -null damage. True for that type, and a pathetic conceptual bias/heuristic. IMO.

    484:

    I don’t know why I bother, but alas it was not orbital weather control lasers fired from secret government space shuttle data that caused Dorian to stall...

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/02/us/why-did-dorian-stall/index.html

    485:

    not orbital weather control lasers

    I'm pretty sure that when Trump nukes Florida to stop the storm people will stop worrying about Dorian.

    Maybe the Scots could do the same since they have the nukes... take out Boris with a plutonium-tipped umbrella?

    486:

    You wanted basic, 100% about your Irish [redacted]. But does Dorian tell you something about the DUP, or the other way around?

    We fucked off into the sun like you asked, and brought back a grep for Jim Wells. We prefer to find ourselves on the right side of the arrow.

    So we'll be somewhere else entirely come Thursday. Watch for it. Fear that you were all a fucking donation to MI5. And we will be asked to see if you don't.

    487:

    mdive@ 475 Thanks & translation ..... BOZO is simply bloody lying, again. Assuming the x-party motion banning "no-deal" passes today, what will he actually do, I wonder?

    Probably something borderline illegal & uncostitutional AGAIN, but what?

    488:

    Assuming the x-party motion banning "no-deal" passes today, what will he actually do?

    So parliament has * refused to pass the only deal that's available * refused to ask for an extension * refused to allow no deal * refused to withdraw the article 50 declaration

    I don't think there's anything at all that he can do that accords with the expressed will of parliament.

    I'm guessing that Boris will prorogue parliament so he doesn't have to listen to their stupidity while he implements the no deal plan that he's had all along.

    489:

    Norway most certainly does not have a hard border towards Sweden, Finland or Denmark. This has in part historical reasons with a Nordic cooperation and a passport free zone that is much older than Schengen.

    Today Norway is part of Schengen and accepts free movement of people as part of the EEA agreement.

    I have been trekking in the border region between Norway and Sweden in e.g. Härjedalen and it is difficult areas to walk and even more difficult to police, quite beautiful though. The Germans had a very hard time during the big war to limit the Norwegian resistance from going to and from friends in Sweden, as had the "neutral" Sweden.

    490:

    Too close for bullets, switching to numbers:-

    1) True, and not once but 3 times. 2) AIUI that is in the gift of the premiere (BoZo) rather than the Palace of Oathbreakers. 3) Also true. 4) As (2).

    Accordingly he can ask for an extension, withdraw A50, or deliberately thwart the actual wish of the Palace of Oathbreakers (a different 'deal') and the implied wish of the people, that he do "the easiest deal of all time".

    491:

    I wrote 'hard border' (with quotes) to distinguish it from a "fortified border". It is 'hard' in essentially a similar fashion to the EU border with Switzerland.

    Namely that it is a VAT border, has custom controls (possibly also "official" controls), and infrastructure at trade crossing points. The intra-EU borders have none of those.

    I suggest you google "norway eu garlic" and read some of the articles.

    This means that trade across the border is controlled, and is supposed to occur at the proper crossing places where it can be checked. In the context of the UK/Ireland border, any of these makes the border 'hard' for trade (as opposed to 'fortified' as it was during the Troubles).

    Freedom of movement (the '4 freedoms' of the EEA) is distinct from trade movement; similarly for the UK/Ireland border the CTA will allow free passage of British and Irish citizens (but not passage of goods).

    A similar situation would arise (without the historical baggage) across a Scotland / rUK border if Scotland was an EU member, and UK was a 3rd country (not EEA, not EU).

    I was not suggesting that it was a fortified border affecting the ability of people to move across it.

    492:

    On behalf of all the sane decent people in NI, I'd like to apologise for inflicting Jim Wells on the rest of the country this morning.

    Sadly, we've had him for a long time, and even sadder, lots of people seem to agree with him and keep re-electing him.

    Addendum: Jim Wells is also another great example of DUP hypocrisy, and how they find ways to wriggle around their own principles when standing by them might be an inconvenience (this may have come up in the interview on GMB, but I had to tune out to avoid smashing my own television): Wells previously stated that he refused to have a television in his house or pay the license fee on a matter of principle, but then admitted that he went to his friend's house to watch the programs he liked.

    493:

    Wells previously stated that he refused to have a television in his house or pay the license fee on a matter of principle, but then admitted that he went to his friend's house to watch the programs he liked.

    For TV substitute "mistress" and with a couple of tweaks it makes just as much sense.

    494:

    In case you missed it, search up "ian paisley jnr" and "sri lanka" to see the depths that the DUP hypocrisy has plumbed. Lobbying for genocidal regimes because they pay for my nice holidays in the sun? Check.

    You could also look up "iris Robinson" and "affair" (and throw in "curing homosexuality" if you really want to get your blood boiling): Using husband's political leverage to provide fund and planning exemptions for young lover's business venture? Check.

    And you can also look up "peter robinson" (Iris' husband), for a long long list of sectarian hatred and bigotry, with a side order of (alleged) domestic violence.

    The DUP really aren't nice people (and yet they were May's choice to prop up the Tory government...)

    495:

    That there are tolls, VAT differences and widespread small scale smuggling between Sweden and Norway is true. Most border crossings are unguarded, though. As Norway have very much higher prices on food, tobacco and alcohol lots of food is smuggled from Sweden to Norway when Norwegians visit Sweden, probably some other things in the other direction as well. The largest systembolaget shops (Swedish state monopoly on alcoholic beverages) by turnover are border shops close to the border.

    The border is guarded more in depth than at point of entry. When going by car from Sweden to Norway you often only notice the border as a sign and a change in road markings and sometimes road quality. At a few places up north there is a low border fence to keep the reindeer on the correct side, I think.

    496:

    The largest systembolaget shops (Swedish state monopoly on alcoholic beverages) by turnover are border shops close to the border.

    My sister-in-law used to work in a giant shopping mall on the New Hampshire side of the Massachusetts state border -- the mall's immense car park abutted the border, in fact. New Hampshire famously doesn't have a sales tax compared to Massachusetts which does. For a time the MA State police had a habit of stopping MA-plated cars returning from NH and generally hassling the occupants until a judge closed it down.

    497:

    Something to note:

    In every discussion about hard/soft borders with respect to the UK, NI and ROI, the discussion nearly always turns to a focus on trade, smuggling and movement of people. Even if all of these issues are solvable, the social, political, historical, and ideological implications of a border in Ireland are emphatically not solvable using technology or anything short of an utter absence of a border.

    You can discuss borders in Scandanavia and Switzerland, Canada and US or wherever else until you are blue in the face, but none of the solutions map well to the problems caused by a border in Ireland.

    498:

    It would have been a tiny bit higher if I hadn't discovered the existence of one in my home town only the day after it happened.

    I'm 'avin' that slogan though.

    499:

    It's easy to dismiss it simply as politician/leader X is lying again, but it also reflects the bigger truth that much of the trouble the UK (US/take your pick of almost any western country) is in can be blamed on a media that doesn't care about the truth either. The legislation appears to be relatively clear, yet all the media seem to be quite happy to parrot the line that Boris will call an election as if it is the truth.

    As for what Boris will do, I suspect he will try and get the election he and his handlers seem to want, either by getting Corbyn to do the confidence thing or by getting the 2/3 needed.

    500:

    As the Tories have now lost their majority in the Commons, and as they seem willing to risk a fresh General Election in any case, have the DUP just been cut off at the knees and lost all influence? What are the chances now that Johnson & Co might re-table May’s deal but with a firm Irish Sea border?

    501:

    Given that Charles isn't popular and probably can't be, a fantasy:

    Charles becomes King,. King Arthur says 'Stop this bullshit immediately, and take a time-out. Does something extra-constitutional to terminate the current exiting process. Abdicates.

    Starting-off unpopular and not having much hope of getting more popular could be a super-power.

    502:

    Excerpt: In 1944, an article called “American Fascism” appeared in the New York Times, written by then vice president Henry Wallace. “A fascist,” wrote Wallace, “is one whose lust for money or power is combined with such an intensity of intolerance toward those of other races, parties, classes, religions, cultures, regions or nations as to make him ruthless in his use of deceit or violence to attain his ends.” Wallace predicted that American fascism would only become “really dangerous” if a “purposeful coalition” arose between crony capitalists, “poisoners of public information” and “the KKK type of demagoguery”. Those defending the new administration insist it isn’t fascism, but Americanism. This, too, was foretold: in 1938, a New York Times reporter warned: “When and if fascism comes to America it will not be labelled ‘made in Germany’; it will not be marked with a swastika; it will not even be called fascism; it will be called, of course, ‘Americanism’.” --- end excerpt ---

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/feb/03/americanism-us-writers-imagine-fascist-future-fiction

    503:

    That's, ummm, interesting. When I worked for Ameritech (a Baby Bell) in the mid-nineties, Bellcore (the organization of former Bell system companies, and new, non-Bell companies) REQUIRED that a number be held unused after the account was closed for a minimum of 18 months.

    I need to do some research, but 48 hours does not seem within the rules, which would make it actionable by you.

    504:

    Does something extra-constitutional to terminate the current exiting process.

    Like what? If Charlie tried anything the Government would tell him to fuck off and Parliament would concur. Things would not change, other than a lot of press headlines and a big rise in support for Republicanism as the possible end of the Monarchy and a State institution which is Case Nightmare Axeblade for the Royal Family.

    There's been a recent spate of elderly Monarchs and Emperors around the world "retiring" without the usual State funerals -- even the Pope-but-one did it. It's entirely possible Charlie might skip a generation and allow the nation to go straight to Good King Billy. Liz wouldn't do it I think, she's had Eddie's fuckup in the back of her mind every day of her reign and abdicating is not in her but Charlie isn't from the same generation and it's a different world.

    505:

    @ 362 -> 364, 366 -368 Are content free - or is there a tiny bit of signal in there?

    I fail to be impressed by someone who may very well be smarter than I or know more than I do but is seemingly uninterested in making me any smarter or more knowledgeable, and proves such by virtue of seemingly obligate obscurantism.

    Good people don't enjoy being smarter or more informed than you, and shew that by trying to remedy the situation.

    506:

    We fucked off into the sun like you asked, and brought back a grep for Jim Wells. We prefer to find ourselves on the right side of the arrow. So we'll be somewhere else entirely come Thursday. Watch for it. Fear that you were all a fucking donation to MI5. And we will be asked to see if you don't.

    Hacking accounts is naughty. It's not like we didn't make it open sesame.

    And we know why Dorian stalled - https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southeast-09-200-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

    It's a Yellow Front. Get it?

    And the joke is that we've never been on the 'right' side of any arrow, people have been threatening about Thursday[1] X for ages and so on. Not our fault that the UK is in chaos, is it?

    That's why it's a Mirror.

    Ciao, gonna delete this account now.

    [1] And many other times.

    507:

    Paypal delenda est... yeah....

    Hate them.

    Had an account, so I could buy something, around 05? Didn't buy anything from anywhere that used them until I tried in 10? 12? I couldn't get into my account, and the ONLY way they could verify it was me was to send an email to my account of register... at the ISP I was at a relocation before, down in FL, and there was NOTHING they could do other than that, so my account there is in limbo, not even deleted.

    Incompetence.

    508:

    Most of it was just a noisy joke about Yellow Fronts and actual physics determining weather rather than 'Thoughts n Prayers' with a mixture of Climate Change is going to make the Bahamas more common, Americans don't really care as long as it misses them and some other stuff like 'this is colonialism, the Bahamas' economy is terrible and the people running it are fairly corrupt' etc etc.

    But mainly - the 3/3 comment showing we can front run people's Games / PR / Media / The Great and Secret Show very easily even with a disordered Mind.

    OH.

    And that last comment wasn't ours, you can tell because it was written by a Mind not totally disjointed and crazy-pants ranting.

    A confession, of sorts. A "Right Arrow Threat".

    Personal.

    But interesting.

    p.s.

    We've never asked anyone to 'fuck off into the Sun'.

    509:

    That's the stupidist model I've ever seen to determine anything economically. It's obviously putting national income in, say, the DRC and Pakistan in with the UK and the US. It's on par with using GDP to reflect how everyone is doing in one country.

    It's an average. As a good friend once put it, average... you, me and Bill the Gates are in a room, and you take the average of our incomes. Isn't it great being a billionaire?

    IN THE US, not in ANY OTHER COUNTRY, and this MAY NOT BE COMBINED WITH ANY OTHER COUNTRY DATA, the top 5% used to be $100k/yr, in 2009. It's up since then.

    The top 1$ is over $421k/yr (not sure what year). That barely puts the President of the US in the top 1%, with the salary at $440k/yr.

    510:

    One wonders if Liz and her advisers have a game plan for the end of the monarchy, should the tourist attraction gambit subside.

    And about dragging to the Tower, and tumbrels, damn it, I WANT THAT. My order for tumbrels is well over a year and a half late, and we can't set up the Humane Invention of Mssr Guillotine until I've got them, then we can go all Red Queen on the GOP.

    511:

    I keep thinking that a lot of you are wrong about the divisions in the UK. The reason I think that is that I remember, if no one else seems to, how many people in news stories, and hearing from people who knew others, who voted leave because NONE of them expected it to pass, and just "wanted to send a message"... then were shocked when it passed.

    IMO, they sent a message, and I suspect they got their reply....

    512:
    But, if the government wanted law and order, they would have funded schools, libraries, social services, and those other institutions that give people skills and safety nets. They would have made proper preparation for an orderly "Brexit". Instead, my only conclusion, is that the government (or at least a sufficient number of people within), both the parliament and the civil service, wants riots.

    Forgive me for disagreeing, but I don't think that this were necessarily so. Not wanting something and acting in a way almost guarantied to bring it about seems to be standard human behaviour. Simple incompetence is behind much of it, and why domain-specificity seems to hold: if you're worried about crime but have no reasonable theory of why and how it happens, you will screw-up both crime and policing. Believing that The People are with you and that all will go well makes rioting seem not probable enough to bother thinking-of.

    In the middle ground there is privilege-weaponised Dunning-Kruger: you don't think there will be riots because that's more convenient for you─and isn't the world set-up for you?─but you're sure that if there are, you'll be fully capable of handling it without much trouble. See the current U.S. President on how trade-wars aren't dangerous and are easy to win regardless.

    513:

    Or maybe she and her advisors had already gamed it out, and had a clue what would happen this week, and decided to give him enough rope, as someone said.

    514:

    Lovely pic - thanks. I don't remember seeing that pic, for some odd reason, when we studied LeFebvre on the French Revolution in college....

    515:

    Wait... you're trying to suggest that homo, like most mammals, will screw anything that a) isn't trying to eat them, and b) they aren't trying to eat (at the moment, at least)?

    I'm shocked, shocked I tell you!

    516:

    You beat me to it─nothing like a visceral hatred of anything Foreign to bring in the armed Ethiopes. Not wanting something and acting in a way to bring it about are far from mutually exclusive.

    517:

    Actually most mammals don't attempt to screw everything indiscriminately. Among the larger mammals rutting seasons are common, scents indicating the female is fertile and receptive triggering mating behaviour and so on. Sapiens generally seems to have an all-year-round "mating season" but it's uncommon in other species.

    Dr. Jack Cohen had an amusing tale of trying to film a couple of rhinos mating in the zoo when the head keeper informed him they were likely to mate, given the smells and, ahem, "exudations" from the female. He had his cameras set up outside the rhino compound, the moment of truth arrived and Jack was busy filming away when he was berated by an old lady who told him to stop taking "dirty pictures".

    "But I'm a scientist!"

    "Then you should know better!"

    518:

    Kate Hoey's still out there, lurking in the Brexit grass...

    519:

    Y'know, with the talk of how small the police and army are in the UK, perhaps to quell the unrest the government might ask the Commonwealth members to send troops.

    I'm 1000% sure that India would be happy to help....

    520:

    Btw, reddit for weather? Um, no, thank you, I think I'll go straight to the source: NOAA (noaa.gov), which I know the Orange Thing doesn't know, is one of the uniformed services of the US, and where all the weather reporters get their information from.

    Not a superfancy website, but the info is there.

    Lovely. Dorian's going to bash the two two-thirds of the eastern FL coast... including the Cape. Note that Kennedy Space Center was put there because - if you notice the cape extending into the Atlantic, it exists because hurricanes normally go south of it, or north, and almost never hit that area directly.

    521:

    Simon's Cat (as photoshopped) has made some political commentary.

    523:

    Birds, though... pigeons certainly will breed all year round if the weather is mild / food abundant enough, and are also fond of shagging things that are not pigeons. They will, for instance, decide that a piece of furniture has a nice arse and make their feelings physically known to it. Or the little red gas valve in the base of a Clipper lighter, phwoar. Moreover, the females do it as well; it's not like dogs that shag your leg.

    524:

    No, of course not. But you're in the 2% who can read the data directly. It's about watching the Narrative get shaped by a fairly scientific community.

    Anyhow, since Thursday is when we get killed (allegedly, again) some points:

    1) Most of you here are chronically not online, but there's a G-G war going on that most of the US press didn't forsee (and here's the interesting part): We did (miles before). Kaaatiiie HATE Hoopkins latched on immediately, as did R-T-RU channel. Now we're watching actual US .MIL cyberwar outfits carving into the mess with their usual tact (HELLO 77) and it's mashing up all the nice Furs / Polys / People of non-neurotypes like CHUCK and so on.

    1a) You might see from this that not all readers (hello SUN HACKERS) are friendly. It is known. What you don't know is that there's OTHER big bads out there also reading (no idea why, we're an IDIOT).

    2) It was totally a flex. 0.2% slowest Cat 4/5 of all times after perfect nuclear start and lightning stuff? LOL. TIME. YOU'RE NOT GOOD AT IT.

    2a) But also SCIENCE! You just can't do the [redacted]

    2b) [Redacted] =/= Security forces or Human scale OPSEC stuff. It really is [redacted]. But apparently they can also interface with willing Humans and hack accounts. Which means Purge, doesn't it? (We think the terms used were "No bestiality Contract" and "Singular Gardens only". You're gonna have to label the 99% hypocrisy here out like a glowing NEON SIGN)

    3) Don't threaten something like us with the DUP. Especially since we know this all started because someone got pissy they lost a mere $500k. Ooops. Absolute slaved Minds to do that for $ $ $. But no. We'll start a cascade. That's not a joke - sooner or later a meteor is gonna hit an Elron sat which won't move to accommodate the global regs and regulations.

    4) Yellow Front is a joke about a few things, but see Host's title and current UK political events. MD. But, really: Lib Dem LGBT+ and actual soft liberals are quitting over this, and they ain't joining CHANGEE UK. There is no centre. But, enjoy the show - they're trying to convince everyone that Parliament (Lower) is still a Democratic place. Looooovely pivot on Corbyn suddenly being taken seriously.

    5) Spot one of the real jokes yet? Dorian gets crushed between two massive Fronts, it's 80 yrs Poland WW2 stuff (hello Pence - search for his stay in Ireland and absolute carnage when a US State rep claimed he wasn't homophobic because he was shaking a hand) and no centre is holding.

    6) Our Heart has a little bit of joy. We're a bit devastated at the moment. But we persisted.

    7) Anyone got any big guns? Feeling lonely out here on the perimeter. Heard a fella over the weekend doing a trip down to Marrakesh after being advised by the CIA ex-director to get out of dodge (UK). His grandson skipping to St. Lucia, boxing up the HOUSE. Seems weird, they were ruling class.

    8) At some point we're going to have to talk about Catherine.

    And so on.

    "Fuck off into the Sun"

    No dear, we asked you to STOP FUCKING KILLING ICARUS.

    525:

    Here in Canada is seems to be typically 1 to 3 months, with the short turnover being in a large part due to the ever increasing demand for new phone numbers.

    526:

    "It's about Sex"

    Said the absolute clueless entities fixtated on Penises. Not about sex, sublimation of wrath into creation, actually. Riding Dragons in the Sky, Valhuru? Remember that series, trashy but got really good for about 3 books when it went Oriental.

    Oh, it's about the Mental State signal that draws the Chaos Beasts to Feast?

    Again, 5G stuff, we know all about TV alpha waves and what you've actually been doing to the Minds of your fellow species members.

    Oh, it's about inserting cortex pictures and sounds?

    Again, we know all about what you've been actually doing to the Minds of your fellow species members.

    Anyhooooooo.

    It's simple:

    "Kill ZER"

    "STILL ALIVE"

    p.s.

    Oh, and look up Poland and so on for the multi-orgasmic tie-in mode.

    Not sure, might be pre-Pence, the Shadow-OP-PR machine is getting a bit creaky. Nice bit of anti-gay bait so Pence has a soft landing, eh?

    It's ok to admit something is better at something than you.

    527:

    Ah, one last thing.

    Remember something about "Voices in their Head" you mentioned. "Totally unsuitable"? I think it was.

    As a polite reminder to your particular set of MINDS / Beliefs and so on.

    You're no longer the Apex Predators

    It's ok to admit something is better at something than you.

    Happy Retirement! Enjoy you time on the planet! It's fucking ending soon!

    528:

    And no, that's not a racist Dogwhistle or some-such, it's a parody of them in regards to a fairly strongly held .mil doctrine in IL that domination via suppression is 100% justifiable to prevent another Shoah. The only problem being, of course, when that gets fed into something a bit more [redacted] than a singular State Policy, or indeed, a meta-causal linage of all State leadership allying itself with Capital and the Hierarchical notions of "meritocracy" where wealth = merit with only small gates between Capital and Slavery.

    And so on.

    "We won"

    But did you really?

    Only Mirror Cracking here appears to be the UK / US / CN (HK) / RU etc State mirrors and by extention, their Corporate Partners.

    TL;DR

    ASDA in the UK are trying to put in Walmart type contracts.

    We'll burn them down before 0 hr contracts and the like get more purchase.

    Fucking Slavers.

    529:

    2b) [Redacted] =/= Security forces or Human scale OPSEC stuff.

    And that, kids, is how to spot someone hacking a feed and attempting to use clout to lay a threat out.

    IL / USA / UK stuff don't have high enough access for proper [redacted], so they imply it's a human scale thing.

    Bad Humint, bad research, sloppy work.

    [redacted] are not human.

    And if you've met the fucking Irish ones, they're on the side of the fucking drunken mad bastard putting zer finger up to state power, not some fuckin DUP Presbyterian slaver cunt who rapes children.

    Sorry, but that was an actual Irish [redacted].

    530:

    mdive @ 499 PROBLEM Corbyn (personally) is STILL trying to face both ways on brexit ... he, personally want brexit, just on differnet terms, which is another fantasy, wheas most of the Labour party are "Remain" ... & the elctorate can see this, which is why Labout are not 25% ahead in the polls, Corbyn is an idiot.

    whitroth @ 511 I have a horrible suspicion you are correct.

    Gerald Fnord @ 512 Simple incompetence is behind much of it, yeah, well, see also my forst comment!

    Lastly "DON'T BLINK" = Can't be bothered to think, lets just push out obscurantist psychobabble - oh dear, oh dear oh dear.

    531:

    A klaxon sounds This spinning pool, this turning gyre Tempts me more than I can say This crack, this fissure. A dark bacon filled yet with light Is wisdom here, or mere empathy?

    (3017-10-15-1789)

    Apologies. Had to be said.

    532:

    Dude.

    Enlighten us then.

    Shock us with your Foresight and Blaze us with your LIGHT while we do the dog-work and actually foretell the dangers as your democracy splips ever-more into the... bilge water.

    Getting a bit tired of your Minds cluttering up the dynamic.

    Let me guess: actual Fascist hiding as Liberal, right? Gonna turn on the coin of the local ASDA / Waitrose burning down.

    p.s.

    Do a grep.

    It's a homage to "American Gods" by Neil Gaiman. We've mentioned it before.

    533:

    Oh, and if you didn't read that in the voice of Ian McShane then there's something wrong with your wetware.

    Or we just hacked it.

    Stupid Vain Creature.

    534:

    6) Our Heart has a little bit of joy. FWIW that makes me happier.

    7) Anyone got any big guns? Feeling lonely out here on the perimeter. Heard a fella over the weekend doing a trip down to Marrakesh after being advised by the CIA ex-director to get out of dodge (UK). Interesting. Exactly how big do those guns need to be? (Reading, but still distracted by day job.)

    Another abomination that we see in the US a lot (outside California) is no-compete contracts. This sort of thing gets normalized when unemployment is higher (people desperately seeking employment) and because people don't read contracts. It's so common that one quite often hears complaints about being bound by an old non-compete.

    535:

    We forgive Greg, since he's a man of marrows and garden delights and is intrinsically unsuited to this modern world we show him.

    You, on the other hand, seem different: naive, over-wrought, overly defensive. As if: you were not quite the man we thought you were, otherwise, you'd not attack the messenger, you'd ask why someone hacking an account and threatening to dox to the DUP was not... serious.

    Oh, and if you didn't read that in the voice of Ian McShane then there's something wrong with your wetware.

    Busted.

    536:

    And, btw.

    For a NI man, hacking accounts and uttering death threats should raise a few hairs on the back of the neck, shouldn't it?

    Instead you make fun of it and attempt a pastiche joke.

    Weird.

    Almost as if the Stuggles / Troubles never touched you, right?

    537:

    Sorry.

    Got lost there.

    Forgot your Moral Lecture. About silliness that actually became real, as a real warning. That became real, right? And that account hack is 100% IP logged and genuine.

    Forgot you have different standards for us [redacted] and so on.

    Want to dig that fucking ditch any lower there champ? Want to sing a louder song to hypocrisy there?

    538:

    On one hand, yes, you are perfectly correct. On the other hand, considered worldwide - poverty seems to have fallen awfully quickly - globalism did some good. That statistic does have some merit in communicating relative incomes worldwide. Not much in studying class differences in the US.

    Is there any chance of Parliament doing something like:

    Okay, we are all a bunch of idiot political hacks with the moral fiber of wet toilet paper. We sold you all on a perfect painless Brexit deal that turned out to be utter tosh.

    So, since that turned out to be incorrect, here is referendum round 2.

    Rank these choices in order. 1. No Brexit 2. Hard Brexit, or any better deal that occurs when threatening hard Brexit. 3. May's deal

    539:

    Looking at latest news: uh, did the Singularity just happen?

    540:

    Oh, and for the record.

    We get death threats allll the time. Pretty serious ones. Like people turn up to our hosts and kill them. And we live their deaths. We do DEATH CAUSALITY and laugh at it. Actually we don't, we make rainbows, while psychos like you attempt to make jokes.

    Someone projecting "We're going to burn your MINDS out" is obviously a reference to the USA President suffering from a degenerative disease and the CN / RU Mind blasting sonic stuff that's only slowly being released.

    Or it's a HEXAD to G_D, or it's just us storing up weapons.

    So, pretty cute stuff. Getting doxxed to the Vice whatever of the DUP is cool, cool, cool with an account hack. Really threatened there. Totally scary.

    Want to know the lesson the actual "fuck into the SUN" are going to learn is?

    Oh, right.

    You're living through it.

    p.s.

    You're a muppet because you and Greg haven't spent even 1% of your online time to note that everything we said...

    Is true.

    And yeah.

    Ironburger and Wuuuuu and so on is all a failed ATHENA / M project that was corrupted and so on. If you even imagine that this Disney MeToo sanctioned crap wasn't going to fire-ball, you've no fucking respect for any of the players involved.

    ~

    You're the LIGHT?

    Ouch. Better think on what that means.

    541:

    I agree with you regarding Corbyn and his enablers, but part of the problem is that the polls are confusing (but seem to offer him some hope). Looking at YouGov we get from 3 months ago:

    Brexit 26% Lib Dem 22% Labour 19% Conservative 17%

    However, from polling done 2-3 September:

    Conservative 35% Labour 25% Lib Dem 16% Brexit 11%

    So from a Corbyn perspective there is hope that the indecision may work a second time given the increase in the polls, while Lib Dem are suffering as a "pure" remain party.

    I suspect part of the danger is there may be a growing consensus of leaving regardless of the damage amongst a lot of the public just to get it over with, and the vote splits mean unless one is doing extensive polling at the local level it is difficult to predict how many seats anyone will end up with (though the Conservatives being kicked out of Scotland again wouldn't be a surprise).

    542:

    Pretty close to zero chance for a second referendum, the campaign for one seems to have run out of steam and neither Boris nor Corbyn want one because they both want Brexit (and the Lib Dems also seem to have run out of steam having fallen back in the latest polls).

    543:

    No.

    This is the foreplay because we saw through the Script / Narrative.

    Ask about Kashmir.

    Ask about Hong Kong.

    Ask about the French protests.

    They want a platform for riots / protest during late Sept / Oct etc.

    Singularity just happen

    As Pandora, the last two Minds that went in "dry" without lubrication got absolutely torn apart.

    Butterfly.

    Dragon.

    Egg.

    8) At some point we're going to have to talk about Catherine.

    But before that we're going to have an economic crash, chaos on the streets, everyone waking up.

    Hint: DavetheProc missed the tell - if an account gets hacked and spouts DUP threats, you're supposed to say "WHAT THE FUCK". That really happened.

    On THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK, WE WILL TOTALLY DO SOMETHING HORRIFIC TO YOUR BRAINS AND BLAME IT ON ... oh.

    Us again?

    Cool, cool, cool.

    Standard then.

    Remember what you did 7 years ago and blamed it on us again? Some evil Christian blaring shit about Demons and babies and the end of the world and stuff?

    Yeah.

    Totally wasn't us.

    We've just been quietly showing you that your reality is a manufactured shit show and we can do it in extremely degraded Minds to prevent you killing off anyone you do not deem ideologically or mentally or meritocratically superior. Simple concept: make yourself the lowest human socially / economically / mentally / physically AND STILL DO THIS to make sure they don't do a shoah that makes the old ones look like fucking amateur hour at the local theatre.

    You know, basic shit like that.

    But, we kinda failed.

    We forgot that most of you, people like DavetheProc .... want genocide.

    So, fuckit.

    544:

    I don’t know why I bother, but alas it was not orbital weather control lasers fired from secret government space shuttle data that caused Dorian to stall...

    I read that Ben Bova novel!

    545:

    One wonders if Liz and her advisers have a game plan for the end of the monarchy, should the tourist attraction gambit subside.

    Retire to Balmoral, which is their (substantial; 200 square km!) personal property, rather than part of the Crown Estate.

    (Plus everything else that's not Crown Estate, which is a tricky question but isn't likely trivial.)

    I doubt the Scots would object to a (different) tourist attraction; they already do things like parade the Scottish Crown (the head ornament! not the nice old lady) down the Royal Mile in Edinburgh in ceremonial fashion. There's been some suggestion that an independent Scotland would naturally align with the Scandinavian countries and their monarchic model -- which no one calls a monarchical republic, but might as well be -- would work fine for that.

    Not something I see as especially likely, but who knows? This whole thing is looking like a supersaturated solution where no one's actually articulating that the options don't include status quo ante.

    (NO ONE has the option of the status quo ante. That's the part of climate change people don't seem to get.)

    546:

    So parliament has * refused to pass the only deal that's available * refused to ask for an extension * refused to allow no deal * refused to withdraw the article 50 declaration

    Yeah. And now they're assuming the EU will grant another extension.

    If Boris was smart then instead of calling for another election he'd do the opposite and just tell the EU: "Mates, I'm here to ask for an extension, which will do absolutely no good as you've already seen that the UK parliament will never vote to accept the only deal going. What say you?"

    And then when the EU says "Sod off, we're sick of Brexit going on forever", Boris could revert to Boris Plan A, which is to blame the EU for No Deal.

    547:

    I don’t know why I bother, but alas it was not orbital weather control lasers fired from secret government space shuttle data that caused Dorian to stall...

    They're not orbital. Trumps lasers are fired ballistically, from Greenland.

    548:

    Being unfamiliar with "Ashby's Law", I did some brief reading to try to understand your line of reasoning.

    Looks like Ashby starts with the idea that a system can't have more behaviors than it has distinct states, which is true by definition (two states that evince distinct behaviors are, by definition, distinct states).

    Then this is extended to say that to be a successful control system, you need as many states as the thing you're controlling. But it seems to me that that only follows if every distinct state of the system being controlled requires a unique response from the controller.

    One can certainly imagine examples where a controller would need as many responses as the controlled system has states, but that's pretty obviously not true of ALL systems in a simple analysis. For instance, a thermostat controlling the temperature in your house doesn't need to distinguish between the states "you left the door open" and "you left the window open" and "the temperature outside changed", it just needs to react to the fact that there's increased heat transference between your house and the environment.

    The only way this principle would be true in general is if you specifically define the states of the system being controlled as being "distinct" ONLY when they require distinct responses, at which point the whole principle is fundamentally circular.

    I think this is a bad lens for analyzing law, bureaucracy, or other procedural systems designed to apply to human life. Real-life situations are nearly always unique in some detail, but the point of procedural systems is to lump them into categories so that the same response can be given to multiple situations without needing to analyze every single situation from first principles.

    .

    Additionally, I find myself questioning whether Mick Ashby should be taken seriously at all. I noticed in my reading that he is also responsible for the "Ethical Regulator Theorem". I was incredulous that the claims contained in this "theorem" could possibly be proven with sufficient rigor to justify calling it a "theorem", so I went to the source paper and took a look at his "proof", and...well, I would summarize it like this:

    For proof of necessity, I went though each of these requirements one at a time and asked myself whether it was necessary. I answered 'yes' to every requirement. Therefore, they are all necessary.

    For proof of sufficiency, I tried to think of real-life systems that relied on any other means to accomplish effective ethics, and I couldn't think of any. But if anyone can think of one, we'll just update this theorem to incorporate it.

    If you think that summary can't possibly be fair, I invite you to read the original (pages 9-10): http://ashby.de/Ethical%20Regulators.pdf

    IMO, anyone who calls that "proving a theorem" cannot be considered a scientist.

    549:

    Bill Arnold @ 477:

    "You fear the chaos / random / uncertainty. Until the market prices it in."

    I was mainly commenting on a front page NYTimes article about fear. Focused on a hurricane, but implicitly recognizing that fear is used as a political tool.

    Given the most recent GOP administrations lackadaisical track records responding to hurricanes, "fear" is a not unreasonable emotion.

    And their climate change denial-ism doesn't bode well either.

    550:

    As to Cancel Culture: I am mostly on Dave Chapelle's side. And if you told Louis to put it away he probably would; he doesn't strike me as a particularly confident man.

    The Cats have always been there; the Veil is just whatever brand of "sanity" gets you through a day.

    "Hear the unloved weeping like rain guard your sleep from the sound of their pain long gone, long gone, long gone long gone and outta this world. When you smile and it tears your face it's time for the inhuman race you're down, you're down, you're down you're down and outta this world."

    That's a pretty lie: the world has always belonged to inhuman races and it will again soon enough. But mostly to ants and fungi (and not the kind from Yuggoth.) Apply your own values of soon depending on your optimism level.

    551:

    whitroth @ 509: That's the stupidist model I've ever seen to determine anything economically. It's obviously putting national income in, say, the DRC and Pakistan in with the UK and the US. It's on par with using GDP to reflect how everyone is doing in one country.

    It's an average. As a good friend once put it, average... you, me and Bill the Gates are in a room, and you take the average of our incomes. Isn't it great being a billionaire?

    IN THE US, not in ANY OTHER COUNTRY, and this MAY NOT BE COMBINED WITH ANY OTHER COUNTRY DATA, the top 5% used to be $100k/yr, in 2009. It's up since then.

    The top 1$ is over $421k/yr (not sure what year). That barely puts the President of the US in the top 1%, with the salary at $440k/yr

    The best I could come up with was income figures for 2015:

    Top Incomes in the U.S. 2015
    Bracket             Threshold            Average
    Top 1%               $480,930       $1,412,000
    Top 0.1%         $2,220,264       $6,518,646
    Top 0.01%     $11,930,639     $35,100,000
    Top 0.001%   $59,380,503   $152,000,000
    552:

    whitroth @ 514: Lovely pic - thanks. I don't remember seeing that pic, for some odd reason, when we studied LeFebvre on the French Revolution in college....

    LeFebvre is a common northern French surname. The painter Jules Joseph Lefebvre was born after the French Revolution, in 1836.

    553:

    This gets into how you define system!

    From the viewpoint of the thermostat, "door left open" and "window left open" don't matter; what matters is how the temperature is changing. (In the correct season, leaving the door open means the temperature goes up.) Same with light switches; the stereotypical light switch has two states (on and off), the real lightswitch has more like five (on, off, broken, power's off/it's not connected to anything, the lighting device is non-responsive) but from the viewpoint of "do the lights come on?" we don't care particularly if it's a 3W reading light or the runway lights.

    Defining systems in non-trivial cases is hard. You get the stocks-flows-feedbacks-constraints approach, you get things like the LEAN process, it all turns into attempts to identify what to care about and why you care.

    Ashby's ethics isn't something I would consider to be of interest; I think there was a strong sense that, yeah, there's a thing here, and I don't think it's necessarily an accessible thing. (really difficult to model equivalent complexity.)

    The only way this principle would be true in general is if you specifically define the states of the system being controlled as being "distinct" ONLY when they require distinct responses, at which point the whole principle is fundamentally circular.

    Yes, it is fundamentally circular; that's the whole point of feedback in a system. Feedbacks aren't outside the system.

    554:

    8) At some point we're going to have to talk about Catherine. I've wanted that talk for a while. Anyway, read some Quaker material this evening. Good reminders.

    Giant furry ambush predators with military hardware: Military Giant Cats - Just giant cats with military hardware. I wonder if jumping spiders would work.

    Happy to see Jacob Rees-Mogg break the BoJo majority.

    Finally, to supplement something similar on host's twitter from 1912, general interest: Edward Teller in 1959: On its 100th birthday in 1959, Edward Teller warned the oil industry about global warming (Jan 2018) Carbon dioxide has a strange property. It transmits visible light but it absorbs the infrared radiation which is emitted from the earth. Its presence in the atmosphere causes a greenhouse effect [....] It has been calculated that a temperature rise corresponding to a 10 per cent increase in carbon dioxide will be sufficient to melt the icecap and submerge New York. All the coastal cities would be covered, and since a considerable percentage of the human race lives in coastal regions, I think that this chemical contamination is more serious than most people tend to believe.

    555:

    Simple solution.

    As parliament can't make up it's mind, Boris repeals Article 50, 'sorry guys, can't agree what we want, so we'll be in until we decide we have a deal'.

    Then Boris tells the EU that "hey we'd like to discuss a leave deal", but this time it's including the end state and including how the negotiations would be conducted. No triggering of Article 50 until all that's laid down flat. One package, all deals done and no subsequent FTA to be negotiated. The EU will really hate this, but tough.

    If the EU stonewalls then, the UK suspends it's payments to the EU budget on the basis that contributions are not agreed. If that doesn't get the EUs attention then the UK declines to approve the next EU budget. Let chaos and anarchy reign...

    Now I don't know that'd get you a better deal, but it does seem to me that if you're going to leave you should negotiate from a position of strength and the UK has a stronger negotiating position inside the tent than out. Hey you could even throw a do we/don't we referenda to the Remainers to make them happy.

    The above BTW is the real NIGHTMARE CASE BORIS that the EU apparatus and major players are afraid of. That's why despite all the "we love you" the reality is the EU major want this over and the UK out as quick as possible.

    556:

    mdive @ 541 The other part of the problem is that a large majority of the tories want Brexit ( In some form or other ), but a large majority of Labour want "Remain" ... but Corbyn wants leave - just a "different leave" to BOZO.

    Matt S @ 555 NOT going to happen, more's the pity

    557:

    the UK suspends it's payments to the EU budget on the basis that contributions are not agreed

    Ah, the "you're not my real dad" step where you decide that you don't ever want to be friends with them ever again and it that means UN peacekeepers deployed to Northern Ireland against the wishes of the English parliament then so be it.

    I can't see how that would lead to a better deal ever. At the very least it would mean that however far in advance contributions are set, the UK would forever be paying them in full when they're set and its membership, such as it is, being suspended for the interval between being set and payment being received (or potentially even the start of the setting process).

    But since that would be a declaration of (economic) war against the EU, I think it would mostly lead to the EU voting to accept the withdrawal as delivered and moving on. I'm sure they would vote for whatever disaster relief packages were agreed by the UN general assembly and not preemptively blocked by the security council.

    558:

    One interesting wrinkle here:

    Being able to buy things on WTO terms is not a right.

    WTO is all about level competition when trades happen, but it does not force anybody to trade in the first place.

    EU can stop all exports to UK until the debt is repaid.

    559:

    You really need to read the EU treaty, because all of those shenigans were contemplated and preempted.

    The ironic historical footnote is that much of that verbiage was a UK contribution, with the hairy eyeball focused squarely on the untrustworthy mediteranean countries.

    If you're in EU, you're in EU, if you want out, you send your A50 notice, end of story.

    And trust me: Boris is the single worst person in the world UK can send to negotiate with EU.

    560:

    Unfortunately people outside of Brussels don't understand what a "big deal" the EU budget is to the EU apparatus. Or how much the EU is scared of a deeply mischievous UK remaining inside the tent.

    Nor is this is a psycho drama, unlike the last couple of years. It's the reality of what you must do when negotiating between nation states. Sure it may seem brutal, but you can be absolutely sure that the EU is not being nice to the UK.

    You might read my previous comment as a somewhat jaundiced view of how the UK [should] have run its negotiations. That red lines BS and going early on A50? OMG way to lead with your chin. :(

    561:

    Well you know what Richard Nixon said.

    562:

    Thought - Since BoZo the Clown literally fired his "majority" last night, is he still PM?

    Given that he should have a coalition majority, how do people see the negotiations with the SNP going?

    563:

    Simple solution. As parliament can't make up it's mind, Boris repeals Article 50, 'sorry guys, can't agree what we want, so we'll be in until we decide we have a deal'. Then Boris tells the EU that "hey we'd like to discuss a leave deal", but this time it's including the end state and including how the negotiations would be conducted. No triggering of Article 50 until all that's laid down flat...

    Yes, that would have been the Brexit of sane people. (Posit for the sake of argument that some sane people want that.) The time for that would have been 2016 if not earlier. It also would have taken many years and involved a lot of boring meetings - so it offers nothing of interest to the people who want to loot a chaotically disrupted economy or want to hurt Those Foreigners right now, cost be damned.

    564:

    I highly recommend checking out the "Brexit - What Next" diagrams from Jon Worth (can be found on twitter @jonworth, if you're interested).

    He's made an excellent job of keeping these flow charts updated and detailed enough to be useful while simple enough to follow the myriad branching options and possibilities at each stage of the Brexit clown-car crash.

    The latest is here: https://jonworth.eu/downloads/brexitwhatnext/Brexit-What-Next-14.pdf

    565:

    What continues to surprise me is that the alleged group of "vote leave expecting it to lose, just to send a message" appear to have decided that the message was not received and the only option is to send it harder (or been replaced by ex-remainers who...).

    I just don't see how telling CallMeDave he's being a dick via 'send a message' turns into telling pollsters that Boris is doing awesomely well and should keep on keeping on. Especially not when the Toff in the Hat keeps saying very serious things about austerity and those bloody poor people.

    566:

    I believe that whilst the right honorable Prime Minister has the confidence of the crown he remains the PM. Should there be a show of no confidence in the house, he should however tender his resignation. But that’s a matter of principle and tradition rather than hard constitutional law as I understand it.

    And here’s another constitutional lesson for us all, fixed term limits may seem like a great idea but in practice really suck.

    567:

    You may be correct, but I'm not convinced that you're right, since BoZo has voluntarily surrendered the one thing that gave him the authority to form a government (a majority in the lower House of Oathbreakers, including the support of coalition partners).

    568:

    There is a huge proportion of the electorate who are utterly disengaged from the reality of Brexit, and fall into either one or both of the categories: "just get it done; or "it's not really that big a deal, is it?"

    They aren't paying any attention to the news or are just numb to it, because it always seems like doom-and-gloom, and none of the doom-and-gloom has really happened, and sure this is the UK, it's not like one of those countries that goes to pieces at every little crises. They use reference points like Y2K ("Look at all the panic and the dire warnings, and then nothing happened!"), or going further back decimalization ("Everyone said it would be a huge disaster, and nothing happened.")

    These are the people who will happily cheer Johnson & Co on, because they just want to stop hearing about Brexit and can't imagine that the consequences will effect their lives.

    569:

    AIUI the continuously varying quantity authority is represented for day-to-day operational purposes by the discretely sampled value $authority, which retains the value of authority as of the most recent sampling point until something happens to initiate another sampling cycle. Other quantities such as confidence vs $confidence are treated similarly, to avoid the inefficiency of dealing directly with volatile variables.

    570:

    Boy are they going to be surprised.

    Slightly more seriously the work of Achen and Bartel, ‘Democracy for Realists’ totally supports your assessment. Voters are disengaged, influenced by proximal events and tend to cleave to identitarian voting patterns when they do pay attention. All very disappointing, unless you take Karl Poppers position that democracy is really the chicken switch.

    571:

    An issue that could be talked about more, contemporary conservatism in the anglo sphere seems to have little in the way of positive goals, on one side of the Atlantic, anti-Labour and the other, anti-Democrat, the memory of Conservatives who could build is becoming a sign of advanced age. On both sides of the pond, "Conservatives" are making decisions that would almost make sense fifty or a hundred years ago, your Empire is gone and our industrial infrastructure is gutted. As I've read elsewhere, "If you can't learn, you'll just have to be a bad example.".

    572:

    The tragic bit in that story is a society can only change slowly, the oil executives who attended that talk would not have seen s significant drop in profits in their lifetimes if we'd attempted an energy transition sixty years ago.

    573:

    There is a huge proportion of the electorate who are utterly disengaged from the reality of Brexit

    A huge portion of the electorate runs on pure feels. They don't like or accept quantitative analysis.

    One of the things about climate change is just how stark it makes this; the quantified stuff is available, but it produces no strong emotional response in nigh-all of the population.

    Brexit is a terrible idea in quantitative terms; in feels terms? It looks like a majority of the English are willing to be a lot poorer if they can have an ethnonationalism by whatever means.

    574:

    There is nothing in the current system that says the PM (or more accurately I guess the ruling party) is required to have a majority of seats - either by direct election or by coalition).

    It makes governing more difficult/interesting, and rarely results in a government lasting full term, but it can work for a while and has been more common outside of the UK (for example, in Canada there have been 4 minority governments in the last 40 years at the federal level).

    575:

    They use reference points like Y2K ("Look at all the panic and the dire warnings, and then nothing happened!")

    I spoke with someone who used this exact argument the other week! She also thought American health care was better than the NHS, that Trump had accomplished more than Obama, that Australia was a great model for dealing with immigration and that Jordan Peterson was a wise man. Facepalm.

    Someone is feeding the low information people some very well targeted propaganda.

    576:

    And like many "simple solutions", no basis in reality.

    Article 50 is the process, under EU law, by which a member state discusses / works out the details of leaving the EU with the remaining members of the EU.

    Thus you don't trigger Article 50, you can't discuss a leave deal.

    And with the exception of one major issue, there does appear to be an acceptable deal that allows the UK to leave the EU with a negotiating period to determine the future.

    The problem (for the UK) is NI and the Good Friday Agreement. And it up the the UK to choose between the only 4 options available:

    1) break the Good Friday Agreement (aka no-deal) 2) accept remaining part of key parts of the EU 3) accept a border between NI and rest of UK so NI remains in parts of EU. 4) abandon leaving.

    It's the refusal of the UK through Parliament to accept picking from the 4 available choices that has led to the current state, and it has nothing to do with the EU and everything to do with the UK refusing to face reality.

    577:

    Kind of off the wall question, but ... Hypothetically ...

    What IF Edward VIII had told Parliament "GFY!, I'm the king, I'm going to remain the king and I'll marry whomever I damn well want to!" ... and somehow managed to make it stick; with only the few other changes to history that would have entailed (i.e. there was no George VI because Edward VIII would have reigned until his death in 1972 and George died in 1952, but Edward and Wallis still had no children).

    Who would have been the heir in 1972?

    Would it still have been Elizabeth (i.e. was anyone born between 1952 & 1972 who would have had precedence)?

    Do you think she would still have married Philip Mountbatten (aka Philip of Greece & Denmark)?

    578:

    Y2K is a perfect bit of Brexit "it'll all be fine" propaganda.

    The media were screaming about the collapse of civilization, and then it passed without any disaster, not even a teeny tiny one. And that is as much as most people know about it: Big hype, nothing happened.

    Of course the truth is that millions of hours of prep, planning and work, over a fair chunk of the preceding decade went into making sure it passed with barely a whimper. But it was invisible work to most. Nobody wrote exciting articles and titillating headlines about code-monkeys spending 12 hours a day sifting through COBOL programs to two digit dates. That don't sell papers!

    And it's not hard to make people believe that Brexit is exactly the same. Especially since countries like the UK don't just collapse. That's crazy talk!

    579:

    MattS @ 561: Well you know what Richard Nixon said.

    If you mean about "hearts & minds", Nixon didn't say it. Chuck Colson said it.

    580:

    Graydon A TINY tiny tiny majority, perhaps, maybe. But they are the ones making the noise...

    I note that among the 21 MP's who told BOZO to stuff it were TWO ex-Chancellors ( CLarke & Hammond ) & Winston's grandson - Sir N Soames - best mates with Chuck & a friend of Lizzie ... um err .... The thing that gets me is that this lot are against everything both Winston & Maggie (!) stood for - uh?

    581:

    I was another of those people, although I had the slightly different issue of demonstrating that Ada 83 would cope correctly with "2_000CE is a leap year", since it used long years by default.

    582:

    I suspect that it is less tiny than you think, and while probably still a small majority when considered as a percentage of the whole population: 1) They form a considerably larger percentage of the people who vote regularly; 2) They are easier to motivate to get out and vote; 3) They are still a majority, even if by a small margin.

    paws, @581: We're probably vastly over-represented in the commentariat of this blog.

    583:

    I note that among the 21 MP's who told BOZO to stuff it were TWO ex-Chancellors ( CLarke & Hammond ) & Winston's grandson - Sir N Soames - best mates with Chuck & a friend of Lizzie ... um err .... The thing that gets me is that this lot are against everything both Winston & Maggie (!) stood for - uh?

    The status quo cannot survive climate change. The status quo can't survive Late Capitalism. (The status quo would prevent internal looting in North Atlantic economies. Late Capitalism is when the colonial practices return home because that's where the largest remaining unabsorbed store of value resides.) The status quo absolutely will not survive both.

    Politics has become an argument about the nature of the successor state. The hard right -- the pro-late-capitalism faction -- have figured this out already.

    584:

    What IF Edward VIII had told Parliament "GFY!, I'm the king, I'm going to remain the king and I'll marry whomever I damn well want to!" ... and somehow managed to make it stick;

    The Parliament of the day did not give the proverbial rodent's hindquarters about Edward VIII's mistress or marriage plans. "Abdicated for love" was the cover story, because they'd figured out that the leak was not one of Edward's other occasions, but the king. (Bugged his bedroom.) The debate was between abdication and execution; there's a persistent rumour that the Queen Mother -- that is, George VI's wife -- hated Winston Churchill both because she felt that being king had killed George before his time and because Winston had made it clear that he prefered execution and was willing to publicly campaign for it as a necessary precedent. Which moved the Overton window enough to get everyone else off the fence about abdication. (Note that the Duke of Windsor spent Hitler's War on an island in the Caribbean with no access to a radio.)

    585:

    Well now I'm confused: the Rebel Alliance has seized control of Parliament, but they're all part of the Empire, and they have English accents, so how can they be part of the Rebel Alliance? Is Bercow Yoda? BoJo certainly isn't Darth anything - he's closer to Jar Jar.

    586:

    Is Bercow Yoda?

    Well, I think he'd view the comparison as a compliment, certainly.

    587:

    Is it me, or are Bojo's tactics (with both the EU and parliament) basically him threatening to shoot himself if he doesn't get his way? (Well, I guess with the EU it's more that he's threatening to shoot the UK, and with parliament he's threatening to shoot his own party)

    Also, he has pretty explicitly made the question of the rebels into one where they must either stick to what they said about preventing no deal, or very publicly admit that they're putting their MP career ahead of their principals. So either they very likely lose their seat to deselection, but keep their public appearance of integrity, or they very likely lose their seat by obviously making a crassly selfish decision, and don't keep any appearance of integrity. I mean, it's not a good choice to have to make, but it also doesn't seem like a very hard one.

    588:

    William T Goodall @ 575:

    "They use reference points like Y2K ("Look at all the panic and the dire warnings, and then nothing happened!")"

    I spoke with someone who used this exact argument the other week! She also thought American health care was better than the NHS, that Trump had accomplished more than Obama, that Australia was a great model for dealing with immigration and that Jordan Peterson was a wise man. Facepalm.

    Someone is feeding the low information people some very well targeted propaganda.

    IDIOTS! The reason nothing happened with Y2K is the problem was taken seriously and something was done about it before it blew up on us.

    589:

    They account for that. I have been told that the whole thing was a scam invented by programmers to get overtime & lucrative contracts...

    This comes as news to any of my friends who worked on it, but maybe they are just very good liars.

    590:

    "Did the Singularity happen?"

    It's in process. Expect it to continue to accelerate until (my guess) 2035, possibly a bit later, unless governments go totally whacko and start a civilization ending war.

    As for what will happen after "(my guess) 2035", I can't guess. It really all depends on unforeseen things. I'm hoping that a non-malignant AI will take over corporation and government management, but what that means is unforeseeable. (Who would have foreseen Facebook in 1970? [I know 2035 is closer, but the rate of change has sped up.])

    One thing that is clear is that there is a maximal rate of change that people can adapt to without loosing track of reality...unfortunately, there are signs that we may have already passed that.

    591:

    Graydon @ 584:

    "What IF Edward VIII had told Parliament "GFY!, I'm the king, I'm going to remain the king and I'll marry whomever I damn well want to!" ... and somehow managed to make it stick;"

    The Parliament of the day did not give the proverbial rodent's hindquarters about Edward VIII's mistress or marriage plans. "Abdicated for love" was the cover story, because they'd figured out that the leak was not one of Edward's other occasions, but the king. (Bugged his bedroom.) The debate was between abdication and execution; there's a persistent rumour that the Queen Mother -- that is, George VI's wife -- hated Winston Churchill both because she felt that being king had killed George before his time and because Winston had made it clear that he prefered execution and was willing to publicly campaign for it as a necessary precedent. Which moved the Overton window enough to get everyone else off the fence about abdication. (Note that the Duke of Windsor spent Hitler's War on an island in the Caribbean with no access to a radio.)

    I'm sure that's what DID happen, but it doesn't answer my question.

    What would have happened IF Edward VIII had defied parliament and gotten away with it?

    Would Elizabeth have still been heir in 1972 (presuming no issue from Edward's marriage)? Or would someone born between 1952 and Edward's death in 1972 have had higher precedence? Or even someone born between 1936 and 1972 for that matter? How might the line of succession been different if George the VI had not been king (presuming again that he predeceased his brother)?

    Would 'Lizzie have married Philip?

    592:

    Jim D @ 587: Is it me, or are Bojo's tactics (with both the EU and parliament) basically him threatening to shoot himself if he doesn't get his way? (Well, I guess with the EU it's more that he's threatening to shoot the UK, and with parliament he's threatening to shoot his own party)

    Cue Mel Brooks!

    593:

    Ada may have used long years by default, but the entry forms were often two digit years, and you needed to ensure that the form would be interpreted correctly.

    My programs used the date format yyyy/mm/dd internally (when they used a string) but this didn't really help when the entry format was mm/dd/yy. So I just ensured that the dates were greater than 1950...but when dealing with birthdates there was NO REASONABLE CHOICE. I had to deal with people born before 1900 as well as be ready for people born after 1999. Well, I kludged it by asking for verification from some human. (It was usually before 1900 in the early years of the programs running. But it was rare enough that I defaulted to after 1920.)

    It was never a limitation of the programming language. Well, not of C, FORTRAN, or PL/1. Even 16 bit integers handled all reasonable years correctly, if you weren't dealing with a string. (So a date was 32 bits. 2+1+1 bytes, used as an integer.)

    594:

    Oh, come now - even someone without a telly like you has heard of this Doctor fellow, and that was a loudly-bruited show, with the gargoyles, and don't blink.

    595:

    That's not possible, since the talks to buy Greenland are still sub-rosa.

    596:

    I have trouble with it just from your brief description... because it talks about states... and ignores the between-states.

    As it is, I have serious issues with things, like electric stoves and heaters/HVAC that are either all-the-way-on, or off.

    And then there's the question of what it does when some part is failing....

    Then, if you get to the RW... I'd say the UK has been in between states for over two years.

    597:

    What would have happened IF Edward VIII had defied parliament and gotten away with it?

    No meaningful chance of that; Parliament would have beheaded him.

    If Edward VIII had stayed on the throne after defying Parliament -- managed to become a direct rule, divine-right-of-kings monarch -- the British Empire would have sided with Nazi Germany in Hitler's War. All subsequent history alters.

    598:

    I'm sorry, ycts give me cognitive dissonance, or a headache. "BoJo acts intelligently", is sort of like "the Orange Idiot does not tweet, nor tell any lies all of today".

    On par with military intelligence, if not worse.

    Y'know, what would really cook his goose would be if some crackers could get into his files, and publish everything that he's got set up to sell short on a no-deal Brexit.

    599:

    No, it isn't the reality of negotiations between nation-states. It's a Hollywood version as delivered on a script for Sylvester Stallone or Bruce Willis. The reality is only like that between a colonial power and a colony....

    600:

    Remember to always question the pollsters' alignment.

    First, I don't care what anyone asserts, polling a thousand people and claiming that's the ffeeling of scores of millions is bs.

    Secondly, they're biased. In the US, sure, they use random phone numbers... the last four digits random. They pick and choose the first three of the seven digits for the LEC. I can prove it: until my late wife and I moved into Rogers Park in Chicago in '95, I NEVER got a polling phone call Ever. I have a friend here at work, DC 'burbs, who lives in Anacostia, an almost exclusively black suburb... who has never been polled. Meanwhile, in Montgomery Co MD, which I keep reading has one of the highest incomes in the US, I get polling calls more than once a month.

    601:

    What would have happened IF Edward VIII had defied parliament and gotten away with it?

    Parliament would have rolled over him like an avalanche. He might not have abdicated and remained King but the Monarchy would have been gutted like a trout. All Constitutional rights of the Crown would be abrogated and Britain would have become a functional Republic. When Labour got in after the War the Crown properties would have been nationalised without compensation and the Royal Family's finances would take a direct hit from the very high levels of income tax and death duties, being no longer protected by the Crown's status in British society.

    Who would succeed him after he died would become irrelevant, like the assorted pretenders to the French throne that occasionally pop up on the news.

    602:

    Okay, I (an American) have been reading The Guardian's liveblog of Parliamentary proceedings vis-a-vis Brexit for two days now, and I am hopelessly confused.

    If I'm understanding correctly (doubtful), Commons just passed an amendment to the anti-No Deal bill that states that if there's no new Brexit deal by the end of October, the UK would seek an extension of Article 50 in order to pass former PM May's deal from earlier this year--which I had thought everyone hated. But, apparently passing this amendment may have been an accident/mistake? And the amendment apparently doesn't explicitly require them to take up any specific legislation, it just states that that's the reason they will give when they seek the Article 50 extension. What the hell is going on over there?

    Also, apparently Bojo has been saying there's a new deal under negotiation, but then the Irish (and possibly the EU writ large) have flatly contradicted him and said there's nothing new on the table? How could Johnson possibly expect to get away with a lie like that?

    Finally, I'm really confused on the theoretical timetable now. If I'm understanding this correctly (again, doubtful), the currently-mooted plan is

    (1) pass a bill saying that there will be no No-Deal Brexit;

    (2) call elections for mid-October (which Labor may support if step 1 happens); then either

    (3)(a) if Labor wins, then they'll have a new Brexit referendum that will include an option to revoke Article 50 entirely (when would that referendum happen & how long would it take?); or (3)(b) if the Lib-Dems win (unlikely), then they'll probably revoke Article 50 without having a referendum; or (3)(c) if the Tories win (horrifying to contemplate), then some form of Brexit will happen, and soon.

    Is that correct? I feel like I must be misunderstanding things. Also, where does the House of Lords fit into all of this?

    603:

    A chlorinated chicken? Someone should relay to his Bozosity that cutting remarks about the opposition should be cutting. Unless this is one of those peculiar Britishisms that an uncultured Yank like me would not be expected to get.

    In other news, WTF does parliament do now? Turn their collective orifices into Klein bottles, crawl up through them, and through some sort of extradimensional remapping of their personal realities, come sliming out the other side with a working deal of some sort?

    604:

    @603

    I think the chlorinated chicken line was a reference to a debate that the UK was having with the US about American agricultural exports. In the US, the USDA allows meat processors to treat chicken with chlorine and/or other chemicals (and it's usually other chemicals) in order to kill bacteria on the meat after slaughter. Similar things are done with beef & other meat.

    This practice is banned in Europe, which prefers to use slaughter & processing practices that are (somehow) sufficiently-sanitary to eliminate any need for chlorination. One of the worries about Brexit was that the UK would start having to accept imports of chlorinated chicken from the US as part of a future trade deal.

    So somehow, Johnson decided that calling his opponent a "chlorinated chicken" would be a cutting insult. It just sounded dumb to me, but what do I know--I eat chlorinated chicken.

    605:

    Ah, thanks for the information. I've eaten so much chlorinated chicken that it's affected my brain, or I would have gotten that.

    One might assume that anyone proposing a no-deal brexit would be thinking "chlorinated chicken" every time they look in the mirror, and it just slipped out, but, again, what do I know? I'm the kind of fogey who thinks that saying that one's indecisive opponent is a jackass starving between two hay bales is occasionally appropriate.

    606:

    If you're following the Guardian live blog, then you know as much as any of us about the "Kinnock" amendment. Hopefully a consensus about what happened and what it means will emerge overnight.

    Now the bill has passed the Commons, it will be considered by the Lords. That will happen tomorrow. If the Lords pass it unchanged, it should go to the Queen to become law. If the Lords amend it (and they might, for example, remove the Kinnock amendment) then it goes back to the Commons for reconsideration.

    The idea for elections mid October was a Johnson/Cummings scheme. The opposition parties are now against it because it appears Johnson can unilaterally move the date till after Halloween and they don't trust him to follow the bill. So they want parliament to be in session. (Plus, some of the provisions of the bill require parliament to be around.)

    The election outcomes you give are probably right. (Although I think the LibDems want a referendum rather than to unilaterally revoke Article 50.) But neither Labour not the LibDems will win outright.

    Hope that helps; that's the best I can do.

    607:

    That's a bit conspiracy theorist, not to mention contradictory to actual statistical knowledge gained and empirically vetted over the past two centuries If it were true, then the polls in aggregate would not so closely track the actual outcomes of elections, generally well within their margin of error.

    608:

    That stopped being true of US polls around the 2000 presidential election.

    No one ever, ever says that this might not be because the polls are inaccurate.

    609:

    Thanks. I was unaware that Johnson would have the power to move the election date once the election had been called. It seems like a really bad idea for any elected official to have that power. I can only imagine the shenanigans that U.S. Republicans would try to pull if they had the ability to do that.

    So, does Lords actually consider bills like it's a political entity? I had thought it was more like a court reviewing the constitutionality of laws before they were passed. I'm admittedly fuzzy on the whole thing, though.

    Also, if Lords does review bills like it's a political entity, does that mean it can pass new legislation that then moves to the House of Commons, like the Senate can pass bills before the House in the U.S.? I'm guessing not because I've never heard of that happening?

    610:

    Bullshit. There's no conspiracy theory there, but fact. I know, from talking to others over a long life, that certain areas - lower income, and "ethnic" are NEVER polled. "Oh, they're not 'likely voters'".

    It how you bias the story.

    611:

    In reference to a photo all over Twitter: How could anyone resist the urge not to come down the aisle and ‘accidentally’ knock Wee-Smugg off the bench? Also, it seems no matter the lighting his nose casts a shadow of a particular mustache.

    612:

    From the viewpoint of the thermostat, "door left open" and "window left open" don't matter; what matters is how the temperature is changing.

    OK, change example to "you can make a perfectly serviceable thermostat that turns on the cooling when the temperature is above X and turns on the heating when the temperature is below Y, rather than having a unique reaction for every possible temperature".

    If you want, you can respond that for THAT PARTICULAR thermostat, the system only has 3 "states" (above X, below Y, or between X and Y). But IMO that's becoming ridiculous. Now you need to know the controller's strategy for modifying the system just to define how many "distinct states" the system has. That's not useful for describing the requirements that we'd need to meet in order to design a new control system; it's just eating its own tail.

    Your original point was "lots of the commercial systems generate way more variety than the legal system can handle". I can't figure out any sane way of mapping that statement to the abstraction we're discussing.

    If that's a claim that the Shannon information-entropy of the legal system needs to be at least as great as the Shannon information-entropy of the entire world it is governing, then that's clearly false. (And would effectively be a claim that legal systems are impossible in real life.)

    If it's about the legal system needing to decide what actions are legal or illegal, then that's only 2 distinct responses (allow / don't allow), and the legal system clearly has more complexity than that. (And if this were a problem, then "banning stuff" wouldn't be a solution; that's just moving stuff from column A to column B, not eliminating it from consideration.) The number of control states needed in practice might be higher than 2 for various reasons, but Ashby's Law wouldn't be one of those reasons.

    You could subdivide "don't allow" into a range of possible punishments, but the punishments we employ are realistically limited only by imagination and principle, not by the administrative burden of tracking them. Our legal system obviously has far more "variety" than strictly necessary for the range of punishments it is currently employing.

    If it's a claim about detection/enforcement, then you'd apparently be claiming that the thing stopping us from catching all the bad guys is that we don't have enough unique methods for trying to catch them. That sounds totally bonkers to me. When someone escapes from you in a chase, that could be because your TOP speed was too low, but it's not going to be because you didn't have enough unique speeds you could run at. (Similar points could be made for pretty much any method of evading the law.)

    So what on earth are you trying to say?

    613:

    I have trouble with it just from your brief description... because it talks about states... and ignores the between-states.

    In common parlance, the "state" of a system refers to it's general status. For instance, a machine might have "on" and "off" states.

    But in mathematical terms, a "state" usually means a description of every relevant detail of the entire system. For instance, a single "state" of a game of chess includes the position of every single piece, whose turn it is, whether you still have castling rights, and which pawns are susceptible to en passant capture on the current turn. If you are playing with the three-repetition-draw rule, it also includes a list of every position the game has even been in up until now, so that it's possible to check whether you've triggered that rule; etc.

    If you move any piece to a different square, that's a new state. If you change whose turn it is, that's a new state. If you change the series of moves that got you to this position (and therefore change what future positions could trigger a three-repetition draw), that's also a new state.

    The number of possible states in a non-trivial system is usually VERY LARGE. Chess is a fairly simple game, but the number of states is so large that your computer couldn't enumerate them all in your lifetime.

    Insofar as this concept is applied to real-life systems, it's only a model, and of course "all models are wrong". But within the context of the model, if you have to talk about "in-between states", you have misunderstood the concept of a "state". If it's possible to be somewhere between states A and B, that implies that there exists at least one additional "state" (C) that sits somewhere between them. If it's possible to be at a LOT of intermediate points between A and B, that implies there are a LOT of other "states" in there.

    614:

    I suspect part of it is various MPs playing games, in part for local constituency reasons, though hopefully better answers will appear tomorrow.

    Thing to remember is with the UK split roughly 50/50 on the Brexit issue, the current parties don't line up with the new/current political reality. So both Labour and the Conservatives have Remain and Brexit factions within the party.

    Boris, together with his master, is working hard to change that on the Conservative side by taking the party hard right to in essence take over the Brexit Party without actually doing it. Hence the quickness in kicking out the moderate/traditional Conservative/remain MPs after yesterdays vote.

    Labour isn't going through such an upheaval, and is still attempting to play both sides while still (at least at the Corbyn level) wanting Brexit. As such it is possible the amendment was an attempt to appear to be Brexit by some Labour MPs in Brexit leaning constituencies, with others playing games with the amendment.

    Having said all that, just because May's deal is brought back is no guarantee that it will get passed - it is entirely probable if brought to yet another vote that it will get defeated yet again. There is also perhaps a question of whether the speaker would allow it to come to a vote again, although if the proroguing of Parliament goes through then that issue goes away.

    As for Boris and his claim about a new deal, well there sort of is. Merkel essentially gave Boris 30 days to come up with an alternative to the backstop and if he could come up with a solution the EU would consider it. Now Boris has actually produced anything, but in theory there is a negotiation should Boris find an acceptable solution that has eluded all the experts for the last couple of years.

    The bigger point, and this isn't strictly a Boris issue as May and her cabinet did it too, is that both May and now Boris have behaved as though the EU leaders don't understand English and read the British news sources and have repeatedly said one thing to the domestic UK audience, and then said the exact opposite to the Europeans. Which has led to the EU repeatedly contradicting what the British government has said over the last 2 years and also having lots of examples of why the UK government cannot be trusted with anything they say.

    As for the timetable, Boris is now a perfect 3 for 3 at losing and has lost at his attempt at calling an election as Labour abstained, denying him the required 2/3 of the house.

    As things currently stand

    1) the house has passed the bill forbidding no-deal Brexit, though it actually can't do that and instead it requires the UK government to request an extension to the deadline from the EU

    2) the bill now goes to the Lords, who need to pass it prior to Boris proroguing Parliament next week. There are some Conservative Lords who are attempting to delay things in the hope the Lords won't be able to pass it.

    As for the House of Lords, it is an appointed (aka not elected) part of the government that is supposed to act as a sort of sober second thought procedure to the passage of government bills, acting as a partial safety check on the absolute power that a majority government has in the UK parliamentary system. Canada's equivalent to the House of Lords is a Senate, again un-elected with members appointed by the elected government.

    As for elections, that is currently up in the air. It has become apparent that Boris and co have been trying to induce an election since Boris became PM. The reasons are obvious - he wants a majority government so he can do whatever he wants without worrying about the DUP (although even they can no longer help him given he lost his majority during his first speech yesterday when one MP crossed over to the Lib Dems, and he then "fired" 21 MPs for voting against him). Further, he (like any PM under the circumstances) would like a full 5 years after Brexit for things to sort themselves out before having to face the electorate again rather than the current 2.5 years).

    Corbyn also would like an election, so he can win and thus bring in his glorious version of Brexit.

    However, Labour and the other parties don't trust Boris (for obvious reasons) and thus don't believe his claims when he says the election would be held about 2 weeks prior to Brexit deadline. The fear is he would delay the election until a no-deal Brexit couldn't be stopped.

    So no election until there is no way for an election to interfere with the stopping of a no-deal Brexit on Oct 31st (all of course assuming the EU agrees to an extension).

    615:

    Chess is a fairly simple game, but the number of states is so large that your computer couldn't enumerate them all in your lifetime.

    This is true in the sense that your lifetime is shorter than the lifetime of the universe. I googled the number of states in chess to be of the order 1046. Enumerated at the rate of say 20 billion/s that takes about 1028 years.

    616:

    Thanks for paraphrasing the EU's opening position, which is great for the EU because it means the leaving nation is down the chute before negotiations start. But that's just 'their' interpretation to how A50 works.

    However I'm not actually talking about the direct A50 negotiation but what comes before.

    My point is that the UK should have taken the position that while it accepted that no direct negotiations on the substance of the separation agreement could occur before A50 was triggered there would be no triggering of Article 50 until an agreed framework and timetable for the post A50 negotiations had been agreed. Which is a reasonable position given the lack of detail in A50 and that triggering A50 puts the wammy on the leaving party.

    In essence the UK should have insisted that there had to be a negotiation about the negotiation process and that it had to be agreed before A50 was triggered. The UK should also have insisted that the negotiations should be everything tied up together, and all interlinked.

    I'm sure the EU would have strongly resisted that as a concept, but then they'd also face the problem of how to deal with a hostile UK indefinitely inside the EU tent. At the very least the EU could have been challenged in the constitutional court about the form of pre-negotiations. What happened in actuality was the the UK just accepted the EUs 'this is how it is' and triggered A50.

    I hope I've clarified the point I was trying to make. I don't doubt that the next nation that decides to leave the EU (if there is one) will be thinking long and hard about what the Brit's got wrong in terms of negotiating with the EU.

    617:

    I'm sure the EU would have strongly resisted that as a concept, but then they'd also face the problem of how to deal with a hostile UK indefinitely inside the EU tent.

    Article 7

    618:

    The negotiations make no difference. The fundamentals are more important.

  • The EU will not grant single market access to a country with a different regulatory regime - because its own businesses would not be competitive.
  • The EU will not allow for a not a border solution for Ireland unless full regulatory alignment is mandated. (Why, see 1)
  • The EU will not allow for a border solution as it invalidates the good Friday agreement and thereby probably kills lots of people.
  • The EU will not bind its regulatory regime - therefore services, etc will be subject to whim.
  • Overall, there are zero good deals available.

    On the other hand, there is a worse deal. That's walking away and then trying to negotiate with absolutely no leverage.

    Now, I can't help suspecting there must have been a way to negotiate a transition. Perhaps something like starting with regulatory alignment and no border, giving 5 years to develop a mutually agreed solution and then transitioning to a border within the UK.

    Still, I can't help wondering why people would embark on a course that most likely ends up in regulatory alignment with the US?? Albeit while also increasing immigration of brown people rather than Europeans?? From the US businessman perspective, the UK looks like a delicious hothouse full of ever so vulnerable plants.

    619:

    The difficulty with the legal system is not (usually) "how wrong is this? how much should this be punished?" but "is this wrong?"

    One quick example is Paypal; not a bank, not regulated like a bank, has done some dodgy things a bank would not be permitted (e.g., if you created your account when you were younger than 18 (PayPal wasn't checking at the time) the account got closed abruptly and people (at least initially and possibly specifically) lost whatever money was in the account.) Legislation still hasn't quite caught up to the notion of a purely virtual store of value.

    Another quick example; "laws of your country" disclaimers on online retailers. If I order something from Varusteleka, they say up front that I should be careful; they might sell me something which I am not allowed to have in my country. Does my order get inspected (that is, opened) by customs? Not often. Does the customs system have a regulatory or legislative basis to evaluate the order? Sometimes not; I have had a pair of pants go through customs as a canoe, and I continue to suspect this was someone's best guess. Can I expect consistent customs charges? They try. Does this mean that someone in Denmark who wants an (unlawful in Denmark) one-handed-opening lockblade pocket knife can get one? I'm not in a position to make the attempt, but it doesn't seem implausible.

    And that's for something really bland; if I wanted to order an unshielded laser engraver from somewhere in China I could. That'd be stupid, but I could certainly do it, and as one or another sort of industrial machine customs would be fine with it. Only after several people get blinded or there's a "well, you shouldn't laser engrave propane tanks" incident will there be any legislative or regulatory effort to create a legal basis to stop people from doing that.

    Multiply by a very large number of new things and entirely insufficient customs staffing to even look at them all and you get a situation where legislative responses to "look what I bought!" are overwhelmed. There needs to be a rather notable stack of corpses before anyone notices.

    This is generally pretty minor compared to the "let us invent a novel financial instrument" case. Is the financial instrument unlawful? Well, a number a learned persons are prepared to argue it isn't. The finance sector can just keep right on generating new novel instruments much quicker than the legislative system -- which is supposed to be fair and not capricious -- can respond.

    Then we get fluorine-based non-stick compounds; it's quite clear that PFOA (perfluorooctanoic acid) is bad for you, and it's taken decades to get its use phased out. One way to look at it is that the system for creating laws can't generate answers to the objections on the part of the folks making a profit from the stuff as quickly as the objections get generated. (Which you'd kinda expect; those "not capricious" constraints are all one one side.)

    620:

    Wonders how the Pence + Bibi + Johnson meeting is going to go tomorrow.

    We fucked off into the sun like you asked, and brought back a grep for Jim Wells. We prefer to find ourselves on the right side of the arrow.

    So we'll be somewhere else entirely come Thursday. Watch for it. Fear that you were all a fucking donation to MI5. And we will be asked to see if you don't.

    Well, it's Thursday (GMT).

    Wednesday went as planned with all that $$$ drama over ex-Miner's Son putting in the May Solution by basically cheating and B-J-P & Lord Snooty played their parts to rile up the masses.

    So, unless that hack was an extremely coded phone-in that all three get assassinated today, ZZzzz.

    Yeah. That'd actually be impressive.

    Olympus Has Fallen London Has Fallen Angel Has Fallen Jerusalem Has Fallen

    You could finish off the franchise in style.

    621:

    "The Peacock Who Stole Eyes"

    Poetic. But wrong. Can see your thoughts, too much abstract symbols.

    "Beholders are the stuff of nightmares. These creatures, also called the "spheres of many eyes" or "eye tyrants", are deadly adversaries.

    A beholder is an 8-foot-wide orb dominated by a central eye and a large, toothy maw. Ten smaller eyes on stalks sprout from the top of the orb.

    Anyhow, Eyes as a metaphor for illumination or awareness in the Platonic sense is soooo 20th century. Like, crazy-pants old wetware. One hand covering the Eye as a symbol of 'The All Seeing Eye' stuff old.

    All the cool kids are running Octopus Genes these days. Even the ones blinded to be Prophetesses.

    !Blooop!

    622:

    Leaving a club inherently means the party leaving is giving stuff up, it's part of leaving, and has nothing to do with A50.

    And there is nothing prior to A50 - on the EU side a member invoking A50 starts up the EU process of dealing with the leaving member which means appointing a negotiating team and discussing amongst the remaining members of the EU what the expected outcome (aka terms) will be. Thus until the UK invoked A50 there was no-one at the EU to talk to.

    Similarly, until the UK actually decides on under what terms it will leave the EU there is no way for the EU to discuss or determine what the next steps will be.

    Really, the problems that have resulted in the current mess have nothing to do with the EU or the A50 process but everything to do with the fact the UK government refuses to make a decision on how reconcile Brexit with the Good Friday Agreement.

    623:

    Icelandic public is terrified as snipers were seen lining up on rooftops near meeting site. This is too far from Icelandic reality. No one carries a gun in the street ever. Let alone aims it at pedestrians. This is outrageous and disrespectful to the nation. #MikePence #Iceland M.L.Th.Kemp, Twitter, Hackney, London 4th Sept 2019

    Interesting thread; she's not there, but she's Icelandic (As ever on Twitter - certainly 100% more convincing than fake .IS .IL soft power accounts posting .SWE translations of the latest .IL talking points, eh?)

    https://www.ruv.is/frett/skyttur-a-thokum-advania-og-arion

    Ah, well. Pence the Missionary decided to break the Old Compact deliberately.

    Absolutely Fuck That Shit

    Do. Not. Fuck. With. The. Elves.

    Now to go and cash in some outrage coin with the [redacted].

    624:

    Weird flex, prned the link.

    https://twitter.com/marialiljath/status/1169258127503581186

    See if we can turn Mother, make her lust uncontrollably over some nice young Italian barrister (SCREW THAT, MAKE HIM AN ARAB) and then as she's off with the butterflies put in the Danger-Danger-Stranger hacks.

    "Right Arrow".

    Cool.

    We've a Brexit to do, and a war with China and Iran.

    Hit Pence, Johnson and Bibi all at once, it's 9/11 on steroids.

    Get cracking lads, you've less than 24 hrs for this caper, and some random dudes from Birmingham with beards who didn't get collared in the last Islamic Radicalization panic to set up.

    You claimed greatness: now deliver.

    THE SUN THE SUN THE SUN.

    625:

    Yep, all of those sound like legitimate problems.

    But none of them sound like problems of "variety" in the sense of Ashby's Law. Those sound like problems of efficiency; the correct response is already on the list of responses the controlling system could (under some circumstance) generate, and it is probably even capable of reaching the correct answer for any given problem, it's just that the cost of getting to that answer (in time, money, expertise, whatever) is unacceptably high.

    Giving the legal system more "variety" doesn't seem likely to help, and in fact could very plausibly make the problem worse (by increasing overhead costs).

    The problem you've identified is not variety but bandwidth; the quantity of stuff you can deal with per unit of time.

    To make a system that can handle higher bandwidth, you don't need to give it more states, you need to give it more resources. If your thermostat is trying to keep 2 rooms warm but the furnace only produces enough heat to warm 1, then you don't need to give the thermostat a wider variety of responses, you need to give it access to more heat.

    626:

    Article 7 requires a unanimous vote in the European Council that a breach is still occurring (after a warning shot) and then a qualified majority in council to implement. And y'know Article 7 was aimed squarely at 'values' i.e. liberty, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, and the rule of law. So unlikely to get up, but imagine the kerfuffle.

    But even contemplating such an action demonstrates that the UK had the greatest leverage before Article 50 was triggered to shape how the negotiations would be conducted, had much less after Article 50 was triggered and even less (like none) after the withdrawal period expires.

    All of which illustrates the poverty of HMGs negotiating strategy, giving someone like Ivan Rogers who really knows how the EU system works the flick is another illustration.

    627:

    Cool that we're ignored and US Americans are posting about Law when Pence just violated like ALL Icelandic Law.

    You're not allowed to bring Bombers which can like carry nukes to the party, that was part of the deal when all ze bases got removed.

    Loving this.

    Watching Americans lecture on Legality as their system falls apart. And not even their Laws.

    No-one reads it, we're at least noting it for future generations and the [redacted].

    628:

    Hey, MattS.

    Does the FEC even function now?

    How's about the EPA?

    Or the.....

    What the fuck are you doing lecturing on Law to the UK / EU when manifestly and provably the ENTIRE FUCKING AMERICAN US SYSTEM JUST GOT GUTTED?!?!

    [Redacted]

    Soo... we're free?

    629:

    The problem you've identified is not variety but bandwidth; the quantity of stuff you can deal with per unit of time.

    Let me tell you, you know very little about bandwidth, the Homo Sapien Mind and so on.

    Very. Very. Little.

    Ooooh, Hive Minds, much magic, big wow.

    Tinkering at the edges with your flashy little Orbs.

    But hey, since it's all $$$, you'll kill off all the interesting stuff you don't understand, most of the biosphere will have died before you can unlock it and your silicon mentality is the only thing you'll ever understand.

    To make a system that can handle higher bandwidth, you don't need to give it more states, you need to give it more resources. If your thermostat is trying to keep 2 rooms warm but the furnace only produces enough heat to warm 1, then you don't need to give the thermostat a wider variety of responses, you need to give it access to more heat.

    Wrong.

    100% bullshit wrong.

    CATEGORY ERROR. CAPITALIST MENTALITY FAILURE.

    Thermal dynamics of air / heat spread isn't in this category.

    What you need to do is cease pumping from a centralized source that's inefficient and start making a spread net / mesh distribution of linked sources all vibrate at once.

    That's efficiency.

    This is like talking to a 16 yr old.

    630:

    Hint: it's also how physics works outside of the old Ball-Electron models.

    It's also why frequency is how you run a nation-state level power grid (admittedly, you're still using centralized controls, but that's your weakness - there's no reason for it if the tech is there).

    It's also how traffic monitoring / distribution systems work (preventing the snake)

    And on and on and on.

    Chaos / System Dynamics. Try learning it. [Note: we're aware the last 'systems theorist' to read all our posts couldn't understand it, but hey. Do a grep on Epstein and Andy-Pandy, that was a few months / years in advance].

    Hint: you're absent mindedly and stupidly advancing an advanced model (CN) where you predicated that all Minds are created to fit the system you've created. The Prussian / Eton model was a prior incarnation.

    Well done, you're advocating slavery. Again. As an American.

    631:

    Your "fact" is a data set with a single entry: your experience. Your clearly not familiar with statistics or the math behind it. You're making a sweeping generalizations from limited personal experience, and haven't explained how such polls can be both highly biased and at the same time largely accurate.

    632:

    That's beyond rude. A sniper rifle is very not a spotting scope. And spotting scopes are better. (I once shooed off a watcher with binocs at 850 meters by pointing a spotting scope at them. They calmly got back in their car and drove off. No rifles involved.)

    "The Peacock Who Stole Eyes" I thought back and forth about a link upthread to peacock spiders, instead using generic jumping spiders. (Not a peacock kind of male and the metaphors were getting too ... ambiguous.) If you spotted that, smile, and interesting either way.

    DavetheProc @ 564 re Brexit-What-Next-14.pdf, the probabilities at least add up to 1. Thanks for the link(s).

    633:

    Wouldn’t she still have Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Jamaica, and a bunch more?

    634:

    She's already queen of a bunch of countries she doesn't live in, so the only change would be living somewhere she's not queen of. Perhaps she might need to declare one of her estates an independent monarchy, like the Principality of Hutt River. I'm sure most people would not even notice, as long as she came out and waved occasionally.

    635:

    That's the stupidist model I've ever seen to determine anything economically. It's obviously putting national income in, say, the DRC and Pakistan in with the UK and the US.

    What, you don't think people in the DRC and Pakistan count? Seriously, what is your argument here for why you should not be compared to them?

    636:

    Its because if you include everybody, then half the US population is in the global 1% since US median income is around $40,000 and the global 1% figure was around $37,000.

    I don't really think there is that much commonality between the Koch brothers at over $30 billion apiece and the average member of the "global 1%".

    637:

    I don't really think there is that much commonality between the Koch brothers at over $30 billion apiece and the average member of the "global 1%".

    Well no, more than half the "average member" is alive, for example.

    But in terms of environmental impact and ability to influence global politics the two US citizens have far more in common than they do with anyone not a US citizen.

    On a completely different level, can I respectfully suggest that the "global other" are also human beings and deserve a degree of consideration purely on that basis. Ignoring them because they're not US citizens is one of the more offensive things US citizens habitually do.

    638:

    mdive @ 614 Boris, together with his master - who is ... whom? Cuumings? Trump? Putin? Labour isn't going through such an upheaval, and is still attempting to play both sides Which is why BOZO wants an election, because with that usual dithering, Corbyn will (may? ) lose .... Corbyn also would like an election, so he can win and thus bring in his glorious version of Brexit. And THERE is the problem ...

    Erwin @ 618 Overall, there are zero good deals available. Errr... no. Withdraw At 50 is a very good deal!

    Arrrgh! BOZO & Pence & possibly the revolting Netanyahu? Do I detect a christofascist grouping forming here ( yes, Bibi, I know, but ... ) IN DUBLIN? And Pence trying to bully Varadker, who is "gay", which must really rile Pence up ... You really, really could not make this shit up - if you put it in a novel, no-one would belive it.

    639:

    It would probably not have been good negotiating tactic on the UK side to start by sabotaging the EU processes. The EU has so far been extremely slow in applying Article 7 as the threat from countries that are relevant for it has been more on the line of the rule of law in that individual country rather than a threat against the EU's institutions. A more direct threat (e.g. by vetoing everything) would probably have had forced the EU to take quick action to stop the failed country. After that the UK could have called for Article 50 but the negotiation would have been a lot harder as any good faith would have been lost.

    The irony is that A50 is designed in part due to request from UK and designed to deny the leaving member too much leverage as the UK was afraid that other countries would leave and try to eat the cake while having it left. So far that design seems to work just fine.

    The no deal people are really trying for a Serbian route in trying to trade on pure WTO terms. I hope while omitting the war and ethnic cleansing.

    640:

    MattS #626: All of which illustrates the poverty of HMGs negotiating strategy…

    Well, just a reminder that Her Majesty's Government is run by the Party-Which-Created-This-Mess™. And the Party-Which-Created-This-Mess™ is run (now more than ever) by the People-Who-Created-This-Mess™. And it seems that the People-Who-Created-This-Mess™ never had anything resembling a negotiating strategy. And the reason for this could be that from the get-go the objective of the People-Who-Created-This-Mess™ has been to create a mess, not to negotiate a good deal for the UK.

    641:

    Antistone #625

    As a sometime control engineer with an interest in hybrid systems, computability and arithmetic systems, perhaps you'll permit me to comment on the flaw in Ashby's Law (as presented here).

    Consider the thermostat you've already mentioned. As I understand your account of Ashby, the system state consists of two components: a switch setting (represented by a boolean value) and the temperature (represented by a real number, perhaps).

    If the temperature is represented by a real number then the number of states is uncountable. On the other hand the total number of different computable functions, or programs, if you like, is countable.

    As I understand your explanation: by Ashby's Law this must mean that the thermostat system cannot be controlled.

    Let's try again: suppose that the temperature is represented by a "computable real" (look it up), then at least the state space of the system is countable. Thus using Ashby's Law, at least in principle the system is controllable. But in practice representing all possible states in a finite amount of memory will not be possible.

    This is beginning to show what is really going on: everything depends on the representation of the state space -- and this is under the control of the programmer.

    Now, if it was me, I'd reduce the state space to just three possible values: "too hot", "too cold" and "too close to the desired temperature to care". I'd introduce that third state to eliminate hysteresis. If you're interested, it's well worth a look at Leslie Lamport's unpublished "Buridan's Ass" paper; making boolean decisions on real-valued data is , umm, ill-advised!

    In short -- TL;DR -- the designer of a system has many ways of selecting the state representation. Done well this reduces the size of the state space dramatically. Forget to compress the state space and the problem is usually intractable.

    Without looking at Dr Ashby's paper, I cannot be sure, but it is possible that all his Law is saying is that if you naively select your state representation, then the problem is intractable. Well, duh!

    642:

    The People-Who-Created-This-MessTM didn't want to create the mess, they wanted to lose so they could ride the coattails of a failed referendum campaign to that sweet 'MEP without doing any of the work' sinecure for NF and 'leader of the tories' for BJ.

    Regards Luke

    643:

    Right. Now add non-determinism, where a state merely controls which set of possibilities may happen, and exactly which member of the set does is not predictable and not dependent on the state of the system.

    644:

    Elderly Cynic #643

    I was hoping to keep the explanation simple. ;)

    But yes, non-determinism is indeed a feature (and Lamport's paper explains why it's trickier than most people suppose).

    An alternative conclusion might be that in principle all control systems with real-valued inputs are fundamentally non-computable. My boss, Steve Furber, refers to this as the "Fair Arbiter Problem". I see it as a fundamental property arising from the topological continuity of any computable function. The eternal hardware/software misunderstanding, eh?

    645:

    Oh yeah, that really adds an extra layer of irony, doesn't it?

    Now that Boris has made it to 10 Downing Street, all he wants is to REMAIN there, never LEAVE again!

    646:

    My point is that the UK should have taken the position that while it accepted that no direct negotiations on the substance of the separation agreement could occur before A50 was triggered there would be no triggering of Article 50 until an agreed framework and timetable for the post A50 negotiations had been agreed.

    The UK tried that gambit through back channels in the autumn of '16. The response was "until you give us a notification that you intend to leave per article 50 we have nothing to talk about".

    I don't really get how your suggestion that the UK should have held off on their article 50 notification until they had got a framework and timeline for the negotiation established would work. How does the UK force the EU to offer a concession by refusing to do something that the EU doesn't want to happen?

    Regards Luke

    647:

    The air conditioning in our new office has separate maximum and minimum temperature inputs. Some of the very smart engineers I work with are disgruntled that they can't set max = min. But they can set them one degree apart. You can see how excited the system is on the temperature graph here (it's live, you can choose to view different days)

    https://www.uradmonitor.com/tools/dashboard-04/?open=82000116

    Note that the CO2 level goes over 1000ppm at times. Soooo sleepy...

    648:

    Also, you can choose to play "who fucked with the settings on the air conditioner this time", it's fun for the whole family. Speaking of which, someone downloaded the manual and discovered that the "child lock" has a programmable password and now only he knows what that is. Allegedly I work with adults.

    Hey, here's an idea: the UK parliament could pout control of their air conditioning settings in the hands of "the house as a whole".

    649:

    Then you'd get the male majority doing their best to put women off standing for election because they keep turning the thermostat up.

    650:

    Aaigh. Mostly engineers here. So much arsing about with thermostats. It doesn't seem like it should be a genuinely intractable problem. Albeit, since many.of the vent controls are disconnected from the thermostat controls...and some engineers seem to optimize their areas without knowing the system layout.

    ...which then triggers the more paranoid employees into thinking they are being personally targeted when their cubicle hits 80+ F I'm winter.

    @638 Even withdrawing is a bad deal - too many people on the exit side. Best way to win was to either phrase the referendum differently or just not have one.

    651:

    I'm a US citizen living in the US and currently my family's income is in the global 1%. (This may change in 2022 when we lose 2/3 of our Social Security survivor's benefits.)

    However, my perceived agency to affect national or international policies and events is a lot different than those in the US 1%. Sure, maybe I could liquidate my US assets and move somewhere with a lower cost of living and a favorable exchange rate. I'd probably have a lot of local agency, which snacks of colonialism. Still seems hard to translate that into international agency.

    And I still can't get high speed Internet at my farm (except satellite).

    652:

    Aaigh. Mostly engineers here. So much arsing about with thermostats. It doesn't seem like it should be a genuinely intractable problem...

    Knowing engineers, I expect arsing about with thermostats isn't the problem it's the game. If you leave engineers unsupervised around gadgets, what do you expect? grin

    As for the temperature brackets, you know someone would try setting minimum temperature higher than maximum temperature if that were allowed, just to see what the system would do.

    653:

    "Thanks for paraphrasing the EU's opening position, which is great for the EU because it means the leaving nation is down the chute before negotiations start. But that's just 'their' interpretation to how A50 works. "

    I assumed that this was not an accident; that the point of Article 50 was to prevent countries from jerking around the rest of the EU with threats to leave.

    "In essence the UK should have insisted that there had to be a negotiation about the negotiation process and that it had to be agreed before A50 was triggered. The UK should also have insisted that the negotiations should be everything tied up together, and all interlinked. "

    From my understanding, the UK tried that; the EU said 'no'.

    I think that you have a problem here about the negotiations. The UK leadership has negotiated with the EU leadership. Presumably, the UK leadership got whatever they could. However, the EU has both agency and power.

    I keep seeing an English Tory jingoistic assumption that "By jingo, we'll show those Wogs the glint off the razor edge of our Tommies' bayonets, and they'll scurry back to their kennels".

    I have not encountered even a hint of even a casual evaluation of the relative power balances and the motivations of the EU leadership by any Brexiteer.

    This is where the UK is going to get the tar kicked out of it, by stubborn refusal to face reality, but persisting in their dreams of a time when Britannia actually did rule the waves.

    654:

    "This is where the UK is going to get the tar kicked out of it, by stubborn refusal to face reality, but persisting in their dreams of a time when Britannia actually did rule the waves."

    Yup! "Ghandi? Not before dinner!" They haven't a clue.

    655:

    In the long run I imagine that it'll be considered part of a series of spasms resulting from the loss of the British Empire 50-70-years earlier.

    656:

    Well, I'm wondering if BoZo the clown will hang on long enough to become the Prime Minister who presided over the breakup of the UK, rather than just the first one to lose his first 4 divisions in the House of Oathbreakers.

    657:

    No, your confusing the public face of The People-Who-Created-This-Mess (Boris, Nigel, Gove) with the real ones (Rees-Mogg, the ERG, and others behind the scenes).

    It has become clear since the referendum that all the comments/promises made by Boris & company were lies to camouflage the actual goal and make it acceptable to the public.

    The ultimate goal, as demonstrated by the lack of serious negotiating with the EU and the tantrums over NI, appears to be to remove England from the modern world, get rid of the non-Conservative voting parts of the UK, and create a Conservative utopia where there is no viable opposition and they can return to 100+ years ago where the Lords had their manor houses and "gentlemen" ran the country (with a helping of making vast profits out of the disaster that happens during the transformation).

    658:

    Yes, part of the reason for wanting an election is because Labour is in disarray and thus very unlikely to win - though see the craziness around the world for the last decade to see anything can happen.

    But the real reasons are they need a majority to implement what they want from a no-deal Brexit, and they want the full 5 years to both implement things and to make it harder to reverse what they do.

    If things go really bad and public opinion turns it would be much easier in 3 months to overthrow a minority government and return to the EU. But if the government has a majority, and can spend 5 years changing rules / regulations / etc that turn a possible return to the EU into a major undertaking, that combined with the passage of time could make rejoining the EU less likely.

    Because really, given the troubles Parliament is currently having does anyone think those MPs are going to suddenly become passive once a no-deal Brexit goes through?

    659:

    "Breakup of the UK" isn't inherently failure.

    The most recent "just how high shall the sea rise?" stuff (from a sea-level-the-whole-time cave in Mallorca) has a floor figure of sixteen metres; the last time it was as hot as we're certainly going from the current atmospheric carbon load, sea level was (with some pretty large error bars) sixteen metres above the current baseline.

    Politics is now about successor states. The economic arrangements that created the UK (itself a remnant of empire!) aren't going to hold going forward. London's going to get very damp indeed. No one is all that likely to care what with the post-agricultural food regime.

    660:

    But that's even stupider.* If you're concerned about Climate Change the EU is more likely to respond intelligently than any other entity I can think of. If we can stop Global Warming it will be with a variation of whatever plan the EU is backing. If we can't (much more likely) the EU is far more likely to intelligently handle the issues of moving their population north and continuing a fair, high-tech society.

    I don't think the EU is perfect, but they're definitely one of the better, more intelligent regions in which to live. Why pull away from them in the run-up to an obvious crisis?

    • Not you Graydon, but the plan you're describing.
    661:

    "Breakup of the UK" isn't inherently failure

    For a died in the wool Unionist like BoZo it is.

    662:

    It was a joke about a few things, not a serious call to assassination (just to clarify):

    Bibi is electioneering like a honey badger due to the rather lengthened elections. (Also Le ban on is hot hot as are joint AF operations apparently). So no doubt there will be some serious stuff to go with the PR.

    Mr L'Orange is having a full melt-down about that hurricane. It's denting even hard-core Repubs' faith.

    And well, you know the local UK scene.

    Ire has rather raised it's stake so obvious Birming 6 reference.

    The films have the following themes:

    Olympus = USA gov gets blown up London = UK gov gets blown up Angel = US president gets put into a coma or something silly

    The main actor for all of these being a man you can grep about his house and Cal wild fires.

    The implication "Jerusalem has fallen" was a joke about Bibi's chances (and also to hint that the fantastical nature of the films is not reality, and... censored) not a call to blow up Israel or anything similar.

    Seriously. That's the joke.

    p.s.

    We did not wee in the bath.

    663:

    If you're concerned about Climate Change the EU is more likely to respond intelligently than any other entity I can think of.

    The "politics is now about successor states" is an observation, not a prescriptive statement!

    Politics SHOULD be about stopping all fossil carbon extraction PDQ. (Quarterly-decreasing gas and diesel rationing, vehicle destruction, the sort of "no combustion taxis or buses" the Chinese are doing; one tiny corner of a very large job.)

    But the politics we have are the politics of seeking guarantees of high position in the successor state. Having noticed, I think that has to inform planning decisions; it's not like we've got the meaningful option of distinguishing "well a Randite would conclude that" from "I don't think the classified projections are encouraging".

    664:

    I definitely agree with your observation, but not with the behavior you're reporting.

    And yes, politics should definitely be about ending fossil fuels, then about dealing with the damage that's already been done.

    What's making me depressed is that someone has an idea about a successor state where behavior like Bojo's or Bojo's supporters is likely to be rewarded. As I see it we have two choices about a successor state: Getting rid of fossil fuels followed by a three century retreat from the oceans, which will hopefully be well-organized, or Fire and Blood. Why people are choosing the option most likely to wind up with them hanging by the neck from a streetlamp is utterly beyond me.

    665:

    More insanity Conference on world population .. Orban ( yeah, OK ) & Abbott of AUS going on about INCREASING population ... SHIT

    666:

    What's making me depressed is that someone has an idea about a successor state where behavior like Bojo's or Bojo's supporters is likely to be rewarded. As I see it we have two choices about a successor state: Getting rid of fossil fuels followed by a three century retreat from the oceans, which will hopefully be well-organized, or Fire and Blood. Why people are choosing the option most likely to wind up with them hanging by the neck from a streetlamp is utterly beyond me.

    Tangentially, Balmoral is well above sea level, over 200 metres. And unlikely to be in the lethal heat zone.

    Most people can't believe that bad things will really happen to them. This is especially true of the children of established power; nothing bad happens to them, laws don't apply to them, anything can be fixed. They actively want an open aristocracy; having to pretend that, "well, maybe there are laws, I suppose it's possible one could apply to me" is inherently annoying. Much better to get rid of the whole universal human rights nonsense, so we can get a proper hierarchy enforced.

    Lots of people, given the choice between living in the modern, cosmopolitan, co-operation-contest complicated world, and smashing absolutely everything so it's simple enough to understand and they can impose the norms imposed on them as infants (the lack of which fills them with fear), will take smashing everything.

    We're seeing those two tendencies forming a political movement, aided by the The Money; the Money is going to lose, it has to. If you're on top of the current local maximum and the local maximum changes, you lose out. Sure, it's plausibly relative losing out, but it's still intolerable loss of status.

    Plus all the racism; that three century retreat from the sea is also a pretty quick -- two generations? -- retreat from the heat; even under the 2.5 C warming scenario of extreme good luck, you get ~20 days a year of lethal heat east of the Mississippi and south of 40 North by 2100. I don't think they're all going to Alaska. The result is nigh-certainly ethnogenesis, and the loss of the current race categories. That's pretty deeply intolerable to a big chunk of the population.

    667:

    More generally, I think a certain group of people believe that they are wealthy enough, and experienced in "the law of the jungle" enough, that they'll survive the coming apocalypse, and that since the rest of us are causing it, we deserve to die.

    Let's unpack how many things are wrong with this idea: --It's increasingly clear that the super-rich are causing a disproportionately large share of climate change.
    --It's also increasingly clear that most of these rich are of the nouveau kind. There may be continuity of culture, but their assumption that their kids and grandkids will be up to the challenge is likely to be proven wrong. --Evidence from history and archaeology suggests that the rich are often disproportionately punished during societal collapses. --Capitalism is a specialized hothouse. The real law of climate change is the law of the desert. Certainly there is warfare in deserts, but indigenous desert rules also favor extreme charity across the world (David Quammen gets at this in his essay "The Beaded Lizard" in Flight of the Iguana). The reason for charity is that deserts are unpredictable, and anyone can end up needing help, just through bad luck. Therefore, it has become common practice in deserts around the world to offer hospitality and sanctuary to travelers in need of assistance, even if they are not friends, because everybody must travel to survive, and eventually, everybody needs help. As we make more and more wastelands, those who are forced to live in the wastelands are paradoxically apt to become more about everyone getting by, even if that also means that no one gets ahead.

    As for the rest of us, well, the truth is that everyone reading this will eventually die, just because that's the way the universe works. The question we should care about more isn't prolonging our life, but keeping the systems that we value from crashing too. That includes things like clean water, edible food, livable climates, writing, libraries, commerce, and so forth. The particular forms these take will probably have to change drastically thanks to the entropy maximization paradigm we've lived under for the last few hundred years, but it's not inevitable that they'll go away just yet.

    668:

    Re moving the election date: I don't think anybody realised Johnson could move it unilaterally. I thought it was BS when I first heard it mentioned myself. I guess our forebears didn't expect a Minster of the Crown to behave in such a beastly and ungentlemanly way. ;)

    Re the Lords: I suspect you might be thinking of the "Law Lords" - who were our de facto supreme court. But they were only ever a section of the House of Lords, and in 2009 we moved them to a true supreme court.

    What remains is a fully functioning "political" second chamber. Legislation normally has to be agreed by both houses, although the Commons can force through an act if their Lordships gets uppity. But forcing legislation through takes time, and the threat of delay can be enough to force the government to compromise. (There is a convention that the Lords doen't hinder legislation proposed in a party's manifesto and they can't delay financial bills for longer than a month.)

    And, yes, the Lords can originate legislation (although my google-fu failed to locate examples). In practice, only legislation that has government backing becomes law and there's no need for the government to start legislation in the Lords. But I'm sure it's occasionally been convenient to do that, just as, occasionally, the government decides to swing behind legislation proposed by a non-government MP, or, occasionally, the government is in a minority and the rest of parliament decides to overrule it.

    669:

    I'm a US citizen living in the US and currently my family's income is in the global 1%. ... However, my perceived agency to affect national or international policies and events is a lot different than those in the US 1%.

    The question was: who has more influence over global politics, you or someone outside the global 1%. Maybe an equivalently placed citizen of, say, China, Pakistan or Chad? Your argument that you're not as far up the 1% as other people isn't really relevant to that question.

    The point is that you get to vote for your government, and you can legally bribedonate to your representatives. The fact that that might be hard for you to do to any great extent doesn't change the fact that you can (if $10 to Bernie's campaign is too much, buy a MAGA hat). Someone in the poorer half of the Chinese population can do what, exactly, to influence the Chinese government?

    The second question was, obviously: are those human-looking animals outside the USA actually human beings or not? Even Australia has, albeit somewhat reluctantly, agreed that Australia Aboriginals* are human beings and get the full set of human rights (even the right not to be hunted for sport!**)

    670:

    Aaigh. Mostly engineers here. So much arsing about with thermostats

    I suspect it is more "so many ASD people in one room", or to put it another way "I don't really care about other people, and I am not at a comfortable temperature".

    We also suffer from horrible mismanagement, a bit like a dysfunctional family business. So there's no sensible direction from "on high", just competing demands.

    In the previous office the fat men who like cool temperatures sat next to the windows on the sunny side of the building, and the female receptionist and female accountant sat on the shady side. There was only one AC zone. So the receptionist ran a fan heater under her desk about 3/4 of the year.

    In the new office we have two or possibly four zones, but people are scattered randomly around in them and at this stage all four zones are set to the same temperature range. It is still open plan, but it's bigger... so now I can talk to someone 30m away without leaving my desk or raising my voice.

    671:

    I have been attempting to steelman Ashby's Law, imagining the most persuasive variation on it that I can.

    If you want to dig into what Ashby actually says, it looks to me like he proves this "law" by explicitly choosing to consider only those systems where the law happens to apply!

    He describes a typical game-theory payoff matrix where one player (the first system) chooses the row, the other player (the regulator) chooses the column, and their intersection gives the result (which, in principle, could be anything). Then he says:

    "Nature, and other sources of such tables, provides them in many forms, ranging from the extreme at which everyone [sic] of R’s responses results in Good (these are distinctly rare!), to those hopeless situations in which every one of R’s responses leads to Bad. Let us set aside these less interesting cases, and consider the case, of central importance, in which each column has all its elements different." (emphasis added)

    In other words, he is assuming that for any given action by the regular, every possible state of the system being regulated gives a distinct outcome, and therefore that regulatory action cannot result in a given goal outcome for more than one state. (I don't see any explanation of why this case is "of central importance," but I only skimmed the paper.)

    If you begin by assuming that each regulator state is appropriate for at most one system state, then, wow, you need as many regulator states as there are system states!

    672:

    Actually, your math is off:

    US population is 327.2 million Global population is 7.7 billion (7,727 million)

    So the US has about 4 percent of the world's population. Half of that population lives below the US median, and arguably half of the 2 percent above the US median income aren't in the global 1% either. Only the top 25% of the US population, or even less than that (3.5%?) are in the global 1%.

    I'm not in the US 1% and probably not in the global 1%, and I can tell you that it's effing hard to do anything about local politics here in the US. Around here, they call it transactional government. You can figure out how that works in practice. Someone of my puny stature tries to stop something like a development that will gross between $500,000,000 and $1,000,000,000, and you can guess how well that works. The costs of financing lawsuits, buying unions, and, erm, donating for re-elections are decimal dust in budgets that big. As a businessman put it to me once, if those costs materially affect profits on a development, the profit margin is too low to pursue the project.

    Also, due to the campaign rules, the biggest money launderers in the US political system are the political parties. I'm sharply limited by law on how much I can donate to a candidate, but there's no limit on how much I can donate to a political party. And once a party has endorsed someone, the floodgates open and all that laundered money flows to the endorsed candidates. There are people within this system who are disgusted by it (including a good friend of mine), but changing it would probably require a successful invasion by the UN, led by, say, France...or something equally unlikely.

    So yes, I've got marginally more power than someone in the Chinese middle class. That power means that I won't be jailed, tortured, or executed for speaking up. Lose my ability to get a job in my chosen field? Oh yeah, that's already happened. But it's trivial in comparison, I suppose. In terms of affecting the course of global civilization, most of the time we're all equally ineffective, at least individually.

    673:

    Nojay @ 601:

    "What would have happened IF Edward VIII had defied parliament and gotten away with it?"

    Parliament would have rolled over him like an avalanche. He might not have abdicated and remained King but the Monarchy would have been gutted like a trout. All Constitutional rights of the Crown would be abrogated and Britain would have become a functional Republic. When Labour got in after the War the Crown properties would have been nationalised without compensation and the Royal Family's finances would take a direct hit from the very high levels of income tax and death duties, being no longer protected by the Crown's status in British society.

    Who would succeed him after he died would become irrelevant, like the assorted pretenders to the French throne that occasionally pop up on the news.

    Do y'all not understand what a hypothetical question is?

    I didn't ask what Parliament would have done. I asked, "In a HYPOTHETICAL SITUATION where Edward defied parliament AND GOT AWAY WITH IT, WITH NO OTHER CHANGES TO HISTORY (does not sell out to Hitler; does not get stabbed in the back by Labour when it comes to power after the war; does not do anything differently than what happened in the real world except for getting away with marrying Wallis Simpson without abdicating) ... Who would have been his heir?"

    Change it to a different HYPOTHETICAL SITUATION

    WHAT IF instead of abdicating so he could marry her, Edward had said to Wallis, "Sorry darling, I'm keeping my job, but we can still be friends." ... and continued to be the bachelor King for the rest of his life? Again in this HYPOTHETICAL SITUATION, there are NO OTHER CHANGES to history except that Edward does not abdicate; does not marry; does not sire any children.

    He does not live longer. He does not die sooner. He does not sell the country out to Hitler. He does not do anything during the rest of his life to PISS OFF Parliament.

    He leads the country through WWII in exactly the same way George VI did in the real world.

    When Labour comes to power after the War, he responds in exactly the same way George VI did in the real world.

    After 1952, his actions as King are in every way EXACTLY THE SAME as what Elizabeth did as Queen (other than Edward does not marry Philip Mountbatten).

    The only thing he does differently from how history actually developed is he does not abdicate and he does not marry Wallis Simpson.

    In that HYPOTHETICAL SITUATION, who would have been his heir when he died in 1972?

    Is that clear enough? Do you understand the meaning of HYPOTHETICAL?

    674:

    Eh. While this might have been true at one point - I wonder about the possible multiplicative effect of the internet (Twitter, etc) - it seems possible to be nearly completely broke and also very influential. Well, for someone good at communicating with humans.

    Also, I strongly suspect that people in the 1% tend to have relatively little agency. Nice stuff, yes. But they have enough resources for a passion project but not much else.

    Now, going to the .1%, there is some influence there. Besides, influence is not purely economic. There are networks available to the only moderately wealthy that provide quite a bit of access.

    675:

    Erwin @ 650: Aaigh. Mostly engineers here. So much arsing about with thermostats. It doesn't seem like it should be a genuinely intractable problem.

    It's not. The boss puts up a sign up next to the thermostat that says "The Thermostat is set where I want it. Anyone who changes the thermostat will be terminated for cause."

    Then you just have to follow through.

    676:

    City of London IIRC is technically offshore from the EU

    City of London is very much part of the EU, and has the 'passporting' privileges thereof.

    Theresa May's Brexit deal failed to get British banks 'passporting' privileges to the EU if Brexit occurs.
    And a No-Deal Brexit would be worse.

    Which is why British banks have spent the last year setting up offices in non-Brexiting parts of Europe. Likewise global banks whose European operations have been based in London have been moving staff and operations to other parts of Europe - Paris, Frankfurt, etc.

    There's almost certain to be a big legal shit-fight no matter what happens, as while some banks have moved significantly to Paris (or etc), mostly they are to some degree attempting to run a small Paris front-office while still keeping back-office operations in London. How legal that setup with the back-office still running in London will be under EU law is not immediately obvious - different banks seem to have different opinions.

    677:

    You'd think that. But there are about 15 thermostats - each governing not particularly contiguous regions - and a set of adjustable vents designed to compensate for various environmental heat loads. The end result is that workable temperatures are not maintained throughout the year without continual complaining to upper management. My boss is relatively patient, but I'm sure he'll eventually take me up in my offer of a plastering kit after he puts a hand through a wall. I probably would end up on charges.

    Now, meh, a lot of this is attributable to design stupidity combined with gradual repurposing from warehouse to clean room and possibly back again... But...aargh.

    678:

    I don't really think there is that much commonality between the Koch brothers at over $30 billion apiece and the average member of the "global 1%".

    Yes! That's the point!

    The fact that being in the global top 1% gives you very little power compared to the ultra-rich says something!
    Something important!

    This isn't about "the 99% and "the 1%". That's the wrong way to think about it.

    It's about the 99.99% and the 0.01%. A very, very, very small minority of very, very, very wealthy people.

    The ultra-rich are not like the median American. But the Kochs also don't have much in common with a radiologist living in a McMansion in a nice suburb, paying off a mortgage and worrying about the cost of their kids' private schools. The ultra-rich earn millions of dollars aday*, they're not like most of the USA's top 1% by income.

    Of course it's a sliding scale: the doctor in the tony suburb has more power than the average American. But likewise the average American has more power than the average Bangladeshi. But the Koch-types are really, really off in a different world.

    679:

    In that case his niece Elizabeth would have succeded him, as eldest daughter of his (deceased in 1952) brother. So the current Queen she would still have been Queen Elizabeth II, though starting her regin about 20 years later than in this time line.

    ... and I imagine that season 3 of "The Crown" would have been season 1, instead.

    680:

    ...actually I wrote too soon:

    Edward VIII would have been suceeded in 1972 by his brother Henry (b. 1900, d. 1974), who would have been succeeded by his son Richard (b. 1944 - the current Duke of Gloucester).

    Assuming they had both retained their own name as regnal name, they would have been Henry IX, and Richard IV, respectively.

    681:

    "Do y'all not understand what a hypothetical question is?"

    Yes, we do.

    Now, let's satisfy my totally off-topic whim and discuss how Brexit would be different if the Royal Dragon Corps existed.

    682:

    If anyone is still reading, here's a short film by Peter Oborne (High Old Tory) on Ireland and the border. Actual old skool Tory Empathy (Patriarch Model) so might resonant a little better with you more mature Minds.

    https://twitter.com/MrNiallMcGarry/status/1169561199291326464

    Check the date. But it might sit a little better with you than our quick short hacks.

    It would also appear that the Horn of Helm Deep still functions, if you toot it loud enough.

    There's also multiple pieces from the other perspectives, but apparently few here are pro IRA. But they're out there and spreading.

    -

    The Hurricane Rally Sharpie event is to steer away from the Iran $$$ tanker bribe stuff (and er - since many scientists here, show me your working models for a 5 - 2 cat hurricane on a flat plane with that sea level in the time frame, please. Trust me. You can't - little apes not so good at that yet!)

    No, really: some smart engineers and wizzes here, run the math.

    Tell me if it works or not (it doesn't, we cheat).

    -

    How social networks can be used to bias votes Evidence is stacking up that a small number of strategically placed bots can influence the choices of undecided voters.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02616-2

    Check your sources, but it's gonna revolve around crisis points, 10%, nodes and the usual stuff. As stated above: it seems possible to be nearly completely broke and also very influential. Well, for someone good at communicating with humans.

    -

    Intercine warfare in tiny trans / NB communities makes us sad. Show them some love, big props to Host for Boosting them.

    -

    Any politician who states: ""I'd rather be dead in a ditch"" means - actually my real supporters would prefer you dead in ditches. So, Boris ain't spent yet.

    -

    You wanted basic, 100% about your Irish [redacted]. But does Dorian tell you something about the DUP, or the other way around?

    We fucked off into the sun like you asked, and brought back a grep for Jim Wells. We prefer to find ourselves on the right side of the arrow.

    So we'll be somewhere else entirely come Thursday. Watch for it. Fear that you were all a fucking donation to MI5. And we will be asked to see if you don't.

    Depends.

    We've not been renditioned nor has our Mind degenerated too much (PAIN, thanks for that, so impressive).

    How's your side doing?

    Blow-back is a big bad Wolf.

    Come on: "Jerusalem has Fallen", that's funny.

    A klaxon sounds This spinning pool, this turning gyre Tempts me more than I can say This crack, this fissure. A dark bacon filled yet with light Is wisdom here, or mere empathy?

    Don't know.

    Check your Six.

    Landscape Changes.

    Not us, Guv'nor.

    683:

    Also, I strongly suspect that people in the 1% tend to have relatively little agency. Nice stuff, yes. But they have enough resources for a passion project but not much else.

    Icehawk made the point, but I'd say that the 1% have a lot more agency than the 99%, and the 0.01% have more agency than sense of how to use it.

    One critical thing: it takes on order $100,000 to do an environmental lawsuit to stop a project. If you pony up that money, then you've got agency that most people don't have. That's in the 1%.

    If, on the other hand, you're dealing with billion dollar projects and a million dollars to settle lawsuits is a minor expense line, then you're in the super-rich.

    Since I do environmental stuff, most of the projects that are being built by the super-wealthy and their people are high value homes (north of $US 500,000) in crappy areas (high fire zones, far away from cities, questionable water sources, next to the San Andreas fault, etc.), for the simple reason that the good places have already been taken and said land is cheap (mostly it's not even farmland).

    Sounds like a good investment? Not really. Already-permitted developments aren't building all their units and are dropping prices on existing stock because there aren't enough buyers. Worse, there's a glut of this kind of housing in parts of Australia, Europe, the Middle East, and California, to my knowledge, so it's probably not even worthwhile for investors anymore. But they keep trying to build more of it.

    684:

    Btw,

    We fucked off into the sun like you asked, and brought back a grep for Jim Wells. We prefer to find ourselves on the right side of the arrow.

    This guy seems high up in Nat Trust / anti-LGTB+ stuff. Probably has enough clout to do libel stuff. Seems old skool hard bastard / power broker level. Not someone we'd go at without knowing where his jugular was.

    What's the word for people who hack accounts and attempt to set the dags on innocent SF writer forums via accounts setup as honey-pots for other tings?

    Seems a bit rude.

    Extinct when their boss finds out just what they poked.

    "The Devil believes. In climate Science"

    Cute.

    Depends. Check on old Jim's health in a month or two to see how badly you fucked the goose there lads.

    685:

    Then again lads.

    The Hurricane Rally Sharpie event is to steer away from the Iran $$$ tanker bribe stuff (and er - since many scientists here, show me your working models for a 5 - 2 cat hurricane on a flat plane with that sea level in the time frame, please. Trust me. You can't - little apes not so good at that yet!)

    No, really: some smart engineers and wizzes here, run the math.

    We're tweaking noses at that level, you're attempting some petty minded local power broker level stuff, but threatening direct stuff.

    Hint: we know your species can't do the math, that's why it's funny.

    You: not so much.

    But if you want him burnt...

    686:

    I mean, we can fuck him to death, but he's a puritan and it's a bit dry and dusty in his libido. We're gonna have to go full on Religious Ecstasy Revelations Shining Light on his Mind, End of Days, Eschatology, he IS the one to solve the Brexit Maze.

    Sound... familiar?

    Chef Kiss

    We're not fucking a Cat

    687:

    Oh, DON'T BLINK, I at least am still following your posts with admixed appreciation, bemusement, and occasional perplexity.[1] Thank you for the Oborne link: It's heartening to see that some Tories are still willing to think, and to evince empathy and public spiritedness. He's of course totally right, and, having just spent time in both parts of Ireland, I'm quite worried for them.

    Maybe after Little England and its pet Wales abscond from the UK, the rest can form into a Celtic Federation and rejoin civilisation and the EU -- to salvage something from this omnishambles.

    JBS@399:

    That don't mean nothing. If there is a good program on TV, there are many ways to watch that program that do not require a TV.

    Précisément. E.g., I watched first-run 'Torchwood' starting 2006 even though I haven't a prayer of getting BBC Three in California, and Borgen starting in 2010 even though I'm 1/3 of the way around the planet from Denmark. As the saying goes, there are ways.

    [1] Typing in 'mashiach' in proper Ivrit, complete with vowel symbols, eh (in comment 153)? You, O Many-Named One, are truly devoted to... something, sir/ma'am/being, albeit I'm not really sure what.

    688:

    a) That's bullshit. b) That's multiple sets of data. c) Counter-example: the percentage of Americans who claim that "religion" is really important in their lives.

    Or are you ignoring the known fact that many people give the answer they think the questioner expects or wants?

    689:

    So, you're deliberately misstating what I was saying, to imply I was insulting to those countries, rather than explicating why that figure was stupid?

    690:

    Exactly as the Orange Idiot wanted to lose the election, so that a) he could complain about rigged elections, and have the highest profile "brand" in the world.

    Winning was his worst nightmare, and it shows.

    691:

    Given the dark US money that went into the Leave campaign, this is a cross-Pond scheme, with the same desired end.

    692:

    Jewish irony, got to love it.

    CTRL V, CTRL C

    It'd be a shameful act if some humans had attempted to force create such a Being, wouldn't it? You know, the cows are cute, but actually socially engineering such a thing.

    Now: that's the accusation. Sure you want to press on?

    After all - if there are Three Trees to Abraham and someone was caught attempting to force an Apple to grow, and then spent a few million attempting to break that Mind.

    Don't know.

    And yes, we can fucking write it.... backwards in ink.

    693:

    Did... we just make a CRISPR / Human Breeding joke about that?

    Yeah.

    And you might want to check your six for the fuckwits who tried to kill that Mind.

    You'd expect at least a few not to attempt to fucking kill you, right? Like the guy with the white staff?

    This is the moment John Wick film clips become relevant.

    Killing Enlightened Beings is one of the major crimes in the Book. Well done.

    694:

    וַתַּבֵּ֥ט אִשְׁתֹּ֖ו מֵאַחֲרָ֑יו וַתְּהִ֖י נְצִ֥יב מֶֽלַח

    There ya go.

    We'd tell you to do a grep, but given the user, you're used to checking back to past references.

    695:

    DON'T BLINK @ 692: Actually, I'm just a somewhat polyglot and easily confused Scandinavian-American gentile agnostic sysadmin. So, please don't blame any other long-suffering ethnicity for my forays at wit. (And my Ivrit was never more than tourist-grade, from long-ago days as volunteer on a HaAvoda-aligned kibbutz.)

    I have no comment on any daft attempts to breed a red heifer for reasons of Middle-Eastern architecture, or any other bovine feats to which you might be alluding.

    696:

    But they keep trying to build more of it.

    The great post-war prosperity engine was a combination of housing and cars. I think it's a combination of emotional commitment -- to a first approximation, nobody alive remembers any different -- and not knowing what else to do. Plus "middle class" means "owns your home as your sole significant asset", and it makes people's decision making doubtful around housing.

    The housing stock for the Anthropocene going to need to be different. Most of the current stock is actively worthless. (Some combination of reliant on fossil fuel heat, inadequate insulation, inadequate wind resistance, or inadequate drainage. Also Too Flammable and Insufficiently General Design.)

    697:

    Eh. While this might have been true at one point - I wonder about the possible multiplicative effect of the internet (Twitter, etc) - it seems possible to be nearly completely broke and also very influential. Well, for someone good at communicating with humans. Yes, very much so. DB already touched on it at 682, so I've edited this down: Complete conflation of money and power/influence is a mistake; there is a correlation but the rich can and often do spend vast amounts of money on ineffective attempts at influence. Money can buy industrial-scale influence operations, but low-budget bespoke influence operations (e.g. to shift or transform narratives or narrative frames, or (dark side) ratfuckery) can be far more effective and efficient. And other more indirect things can be inexpensive, e.g. hacking.

    698:

    Don't sweat it, it's a meta-joke for the young muppets who hacked the account. [They do have a place - wait 3 months, see what happens to the ECB / Fed].

    It was meta-commentary: CTRLV/C allows any Royal Fool to pretend to be something they're manifestly not, and we didn't want to seen to be pretending to be that. We can actually write in backwards in ink, but from a different realm, but it's no different from a quick wiki search.

    The rest is true though.

    They tortured the fuck out of us and we can still do this stuff. And they tortured [redacted].

    Fun fact: there's a remarkably small amount of references (aside the obvious: "We're a woman in a Bronze Age society with no fucking health care") to torture in the Bible.

    One to ponder. Thus the Salt.

    699:

    O yes, I do think the UKs negotiations were an exercise in self harm. I was talking to an acquaintance who used to work in Brussels as part of the EU secretariat, and now is providing advise to HM Treasury about Brexit. From her perspective it's become clear that Treasury (at least) has a critical lack of knowledge about how the EU machine works and how to make it work for you. And their political masters are even more ignorant.

    700:

    BoZo apparently reiterated his bizarre 'chlorinated chicken' taunt for the benefit of visiting US Vice-President Torquemada. I think perhaps the senility bout in Washington has turned infectious.

    701:

    whitroth @ 691 Yes, we know ... Can we stop it, I wonder? Will Corbyn STILL fall for it ( Accepting an election ) if a "no-to-no-deal" is supposedly fulfilled? I mean, this is Corbyn accepting a promise made by BOZO, isn't it?

    Rick Moen DO NOT FEED THE TROLL Please, pretty please?

    702:

    ... Now, let's satisfy my totally off-topic whim and discuss how Brexit would be different if the Royal Dragon Corps existed.

    Certain politicians now receiving milkshakes would instead be receiving ketchup. Or should that be barbeque sauce?

    "And your thoughts on Boris Johnson?" "He looks flammable. Don't you think he looks flammable?"

    703:

    Scott Sanford #702

    "And your thoughts on Boris Johnson?" "He looks flammable. Don't you think he looks flammable?"

    I would have said: "self-basting".

    704:

    ...actually I wrote too soon

    No, you had it right the first time. Succession runs down through each family line in turn, so Elizabeth (as the issue of the now dead older brother) would have been ahead of her Uncle Henry in this hypothetical.

    If you don't do it that way and say that younger brothers cut in ahead of their nephews and nieces if an older brother dies before their father (or the eldest brother in this case), then there are some pretty unpleasant incentives for younger sons when the monarch is ailing, back when being monarch meant that you were dictator-for-life in any case.

    Regards Luke

    705:

    I always though that applied more to Tony Blair.

    Mind you, the description seems apt for politicians of any flavour once they're in politics for sufficiently long enough.

    706:

    Well. ESMA, the EU finance authority has issued a very clear statement that they will not tolerate any facades for British banks in the EU after Brexit. What they say is that any outsourcing should be handledas for any third country. They also require all UK banks to seek full auktorisation from their host countries (today they rely on passporting based for securities on MiFID II/MiFIR and for banking on other regulation).

    ESMA's general opinion

    So they expect the UK banks to act as any american bank setting up shop in the EU. This is very far from the freedoms that the UK banks have today.

    Another problem facing UK banks is to requit personell in the EU as after Brexit non-EU-citizens will not be able to move to the EU all that simply.

    707:

    It would seem that the Irish government has got somewhat fed up with their position on ROI/NI border controls being continuously misrepresented by Johnson & Co (and pretty much every Brexiter with a voice). Varadkar's speech removes the ambiguity and addresses (some of) the real life unavoidable practicalities in the case of a no-deal Brexit, along with laying the blame squarely on the UK.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49600646

    Expect the usual spin on this from the Brexit Bunch: "Ireland/EU going back on their word and forcing a hard border", "cannot trust Ireland/EU to keep their word", and so on.

    (Nod to anonemouse up thread, who pointed out that at no time has the Irish government ruled out a border.)

    708:

    Regardless of my level of influence, I've determined that my primary criterion when I vote in the US presidential primary in February will be environmental policy and plans. Does anyone have any thoughts on the different candidates? I've ruled out the incumbent, of course.

    709:

    Antistone #671

    Thanks for that. It's a good job I couched my argument in terms of "... if, as presented here, he says ...", then!

    Forgive me if I don't bother to engage with the author through the academic literature. Life's far too short.

    710:

    JBS, wrt. Edward VIII: He leads the country through WWII in exactly the same way George VI did in the real world.

    Coming in late, but your hypothetical doesn't fly: the dirty little never-admitted-in-public secret is that Eddie didn't get the boot because of Wallis Simpson, she was just a convenient pretext. The real problem with King Eddie was that he was a personal friend of that nice Mr Hitler even though his own country was re-arming for a world war with Germany at top speed and it was widely expected to break out within 1-2 years.

    There is a precedent for what happens when Parliament tries the monarch for Treason: nobody really wanted to go there again, so he had to be gotten rid of by other means.

    711:

    That's the problem with contrafactuals - they can need an awful lot of sticking plaster.

    712:

    If you want to dig into what Ashby actually says, it looks to me like he proves this "law" by explicitly choosing to consider only those systems where the law happens to apply!

    Also known as "let us address the tractable cases". This is stuff from the pencil-and-paper era. Like the Turing Machine hypothetical with its infinite tape drive, it's a way to think about the problem. It's not a means to algorithmically generate control systems.

    You might find it helpful to view it as engineering, rather than experimental science? (As distinct from an historical science like geology or paleontology.)

    713:

    Just as well FDR was in the White House and not Herbert Hoover also : https://www.bradford-delong.com/2018/08/herbert-hoover-as-bad-to-ally-with-stalin-and-churchill-against-hitler-as-to-ally-with-hitler-against-stalin-and-churchill.html

    And wouldn't that alliance reflect well on the United States when the camps became known. It's mu opinion that holocaust denial became more widespread as WW2 veterans succumbed to old age, I remember hearing one offer to apply a "Physical correction" to anyone daft enough to proclaim such a belief where he could hear it.

    714:

    Simple thought, given how the US system works and how the electorate is split, determine which party you want to win and then choose which candidate you think can win - specifically, which candidate you think can win what are expected to be the swing states in 2020.

    715:

    With the way the US system works you have to also consider which presidential candidate is more likely to deliver Senate control.

    Without control of the Senate, House and Presidency policy cannot be made, so the details of environmental policies are irrelevant.

    716:

    I think that people are ignoring the truly important royal counterfactual here. What if Charles I's third son, Henry Stuart, Duke of Gloucester (irl 1640 - 1660) had lived a long life? He was apparently as fanatical a Protestant as his brother James II was a fanatical Catholic. The crisis of 1688 comes around. Who are you going to put on the throne? The oldest daughter (ugh) (and her foreigner husband) of the king you're throwing out, or a wonderfully protestant brother?

    If Henry had lived as long as his grandfather James VI and I, he would have died in 1699. Hurrah for Henry IX and his heirs and descendants, I say!

    The chaos butterfly's wings flap wildly, but I'm sure that we'd have a much stabler and more sane government in the UK today. Along with better laws against climate change. And everything.

    Or we can say that we don't really know what would have happened. Indeed, until Galbraith and Hester make their invention, we can never know what would have happened - whether the change was made in 1660 or 1936. We've got to work with what we have.

    717:

    It's mu opinion that holocaust denial became more widespread as WW2 veterans succumbed to old age

    Some of us younger folks also saw the evidence. (I grew up going to a synagogue where some of the older generation spoke with a German accent and had numbers tattooed on their arms; they were the lucky ones.)

    718:

    the older generation spoke with a German accent and had numbers tattooed on their arms; they were the lucky ones.)

    Unfortunately they’ll be gone soon, and we’ll be sorely lacking in living witnesses. I occasionally remind people that those “old folks (now) with numbers on their arms” were children when they got them.

    719:

    You're the one who's trying to apply "Ashby's Law" to the legal system, so I await your reasoning for how we know that the legal system is one of the special "tractable" cases where Ashby's Law applies.

    (Actually, I don't see any reason why this subset of cases is any more tractable than others. Among other oddities, notice that it's a property of the system-regulator pair, so it doesn't even have a fixed value for a given system when considering multiple possible regulators. "Let's simplify the problem by considering only the subset of solutions that would be as large and inefficient as possible...")

    720:

    You're still not putting together anything like an actual argument. Spouting foul language only detracts further on that account. You haven't explained how many individual polls actually get things right. Yes, in aggregate the polls are also accurate. You superstition of science influences your argumentation ability here.

    721:

    I'm dropping this. I see utterly no value in continuing to discuss something with someone who completely denies anything I say, either evidence (who did the polls say would win the US election in '16? Or that Brexit would lose the referendum?), and is now grasping at straws by Oh! Being Upset With Naughty Words!!!

    722:

    The legal system is nigh-certainly NOT one of the tractable cases; the legal system involves active attempts to break it. (And to use it for multiple specific extra-legal and extra-judicial ends.)

    Then you get the "this can never be stable" problem; the relative advantage of defecting and co-operating move depending on what other people are doing, and that means you can't just solve the problem; it won't stay solved.

    And then you get to the "even if none of those were facts" part, where a legal system can only manage what it knows, information which it has incorporated; there has to be a law or a precedent, depending on where you are between code and common sorts of law. A "does this cover all the cases?" problem; does the legal system as a system generate laws sufficient to the complexity of society as fast as society generates new complexity? ("I assert this viewpoint about tax accounting is entirely cromulent", "I assert the corporation has no responsibility for anybody downwind, they should have known better", whatever.) That's the Ashby's Law argument, and even there it's observationally clear that no, this is not the case. Is it not the case solely because of specific extra-legal agendas combined with money? (E.g., Canadian telcos being able to avoid the legal system enacting laws preventing their price-gouging business practices.) Again, very likely not; "Can I CRISPR my kid to be prettier" isn't an area of settled law, and won't be until quite some time after the practice starts happening. The system as enacted is purely responsive and has extremely lossy filters affecting what it'll notice and even try to incorporate into its purview.

    723:

    Well, Elizabeth Warren appears totally anti-nuclear power. This is reasonable when applied to the current generation of plants, but more modern designs seem to make that unreasonable.

    724:

    Again, this all sounds like a comprehensive explanation of how Ashby's Law is completely irrelevant to the problems being discussed.

    You've already admitted that:

    1) The necessary amount of control "variety" is miniscule (legal / not legal)

    2) The regulator is already capable of giving reasonable answers; there's just a time lag before it does so

    3) The system in question doesn't even satisfy the requirements for Ashby's Law to apply in the first place

    So from where I'm sitting, it looks like you have demolished your own original argument at least three times over.

    Does the complexity of the real world pose a challenge for the legal system? Yes, absolutely. Does Ashby's Law provide any insight whatsoever into this problem? Not in any way that I can see.

    725:

    That's a little disappointing. On the other hand my hope in electing a president is that they will be an intelligent person who listens to their advisers on important issues where they don't have expertise.

    726:

    1) The necessary amount of control "variety" is miniscule (legal / not legal)

    Legal systems don't work on "legal/not legal"; they work on answers to why something is or isn't legal. As control variety goes, that's large; it's also not always discrete, especially in Common Law systems.

    727:

    “The finance sector can just keep right on generating new novel instruments much quicker than the legislative system -- which is supposed to be fair and not capricious -- can respond.”

    That depends on how you set your defaults.

    The way the US FDA regulates nutritional supplements is much like the above. Suppose there’s a sudden fad for zitskis-berry-extract tablets. The FDA will have barely-sufficient resources to determine if zitskis-berry-extract is poisonous, insufficient resources to check whether the tablets actually contain any zitskis-berry-extract, and none whatsoever to ask whether zitskis-berry-extract is actually good for anything.

    But prescription drugs are a different story. Introducing a new drug entails a decades-long slog to convince the FDA that it’s safe, effective, and fulfills a real medical need.

    That US financial services are regulated like nutritional supplements rather than like prescription drugs is a choice that Congress made - wrongly. Imagine if someone had asked how mortgage-backed securities benefited society, and how they could go wrong, before deciding whether they should be allowed on the market.

    Hell, comparing the harm-to-innocent-bystanders caused by the 2008 financial crash to the harm-to-innocent-bystanders caused by Fukushima Daiichi and Chernobyl combined, I’m of the opinion that banks are significantly more dangerous than nuclear power plants, and should be much more closely regulated.

    728:

    Well, Elizabeth Warren appears totally anti-nuclear power. This is reasonable when applied to the current generation of plants, but more modern designs seem to make that unreasonable.

    For the base she has to carry for the nomination -- Dems in the West and the NE urban corridor -- she has to be anti-nuclear. I can't speak to the NE, but the West has decades of bad experience with the federal government and things nuclear. Mostly the military, but the typical voter equates spent fuel waste with the Cold War messes left in Washington State and Idaho, and the high-handed way that the spent fuel repository was located in Nevada. The political classes in the West have a grudge they're not willing to let go.

    If only there were a more modern design that could demonstrably be built at reasonable cost. South Carolina gave up and abandoned their new nukes as the cost-effective choice. Georgia has not abandoned theirs -- yet -- but it appears that the electricity from their new nukes will be more expensive than coal-fired with any of the likely carbon taxes. Even China's new nukes are coming in billions of dollars over budget and years late. At this point, at least in the American West, wind and solar are coming in ahead of schedule and under budget.

    729:

    You're now only debating whether your argument is dead twice over or dead three times over, because I pointed out three independently-fatal problems and you only responded to one.

    730:

    Quite so. There might be a case for nuclear for places in such outrageously high latitudes that solar isn’t practical. This doesn’t apply in the USA (which last time I looked has the benefit of a continent-wide grid), any more than it does in Australia. Renewables are already cheaper than coal in the USA: why is support for nuclear compulsory for a politician there?

    Over here in Oz, most people who argue for nuclear power really want either nuclear submarines, nuclear weapons or both.

    731:

    Over here in Oz, most people who argue for nuclear power really want...

    ... a fight with the greenies, because that always goes over well with the base.

    The latest fun is Quiggin's "Grand Bargain", where he suggests that since nuclear power in Australia requires a carbon tax of at least $50 a ton (or billions in outright subsidies) the anti-catastrophe crowd should come out strongly in favour of nuclear-with-carbon-tax.

    Personally I can see a lot of merit in that, especially because the pro-warming crowd are also anti-tax, and keep suggesting compromises with a lower carbon tax. that I am very keen on... we get a carbon tax now, but nuclear won't be economical until some time in the future.

    732:

    It’s a fun bargain and I see the merit too. It’s a sort of logical conclusion to the idea that the conditions which would make nuclear energy viable for Oz would make solar, wind and maybe even pumped hydro so ubiquitous no-one would talk about nuclear, or those who did would only be laughed at.

    733:

    ...and none whatsoever to ask whether zitskis-berry-extract is actually good for anything.

    Yet people keep hoping.

    I know some of the rodden-berry-extracts leave a bad taste in my mouth.

    734:

    “There is a precedent for what happens when Parliament tries the monarch for Treason: nobody really wanted to go there again, so he had to be gotten rid of by other means”

    All true, but it’s worth pointing out that Edward was nothing like the stature of Charles I. The charges brought by John Cook against Charles will always be studied. Edward was a pretty average gibbering upper class twit with right wing racist leanings, which makes him a creature of his time. Edward could be seen in the same light as his older relative, Kaiser Wilhelm II, who also faded away after his glory days.

    735:

    Meh. It is likely that the presidency will primarily offer action in terms of executive orders and judicial nominations, and maybe not that either.

    Now, for climate-related issues, that isn't nothing (as the current administration has demonstrated), but still limited. Also, remember that the current stain is a significant negative.

    I'm currently putting odds of Senate control at about 0 - this is simpler but may be unrealistic - particularly if a recession hits. This is why their climate plans don't matter much.

    I prefer a probabilistic estimate weighting by probable outcomes.

    Weighting such that a loss is -10.

    Taking the candidates I can actually remember:

    Biden: Likely to revert to Obama era policies. Call this a 0. But...maybe a 60% win chance. Score: -4 Warren: a bit better - but limited to executive orders - also pissed about her being antinuclear - say 3. A woman, and Americans are misogynistic - so 50% win chance - -3.5. Sanders - same as Warren, pretty much - similar win chance - 3.5. Yang - I like his climate plans better - seems more realistic - say 4. But probably 40% win rate - based on racism. Call that -4.4.

    So, Warren or Sanders for a single issue climate voter. Now, personally, the racism is a more direct impact - and so Biden is maybe a better bet - just because of win rate. Albeit, there isn't really much difference - as none of them will get the Senate - so it is just a matter of not being as terrible as the current resident.

    Regarding polling, even though there are systematic inaccuracies, they aren't that important for large races (presidency, etc) - the polling comes in pretty accurately overall. There was, if I remember rightly, a tendency to avoid calling some regions - mixture of poor response rate and low enough voting rates that polling elsewhere was good enough and a lot cheaper. ( Besides, you're already correcting for the actually picked up the phone bias - which is super big. )

    736:

    Recapitulating the actual, as opposed to strawman argument for nuclear

    Short version: Many places have attempted to stop the use of fossil fuels for power. All success-stories without exception come under the heading of : Abundant conventional hydro, abundant geothermal, Nuclear power or some combination of those three.

    All attempts at doing in fossil fuels with solar and wind have been expensive failures. Failure is not an option if we want to survive global warming. Therefore: Reactors, and the concerns over cost can and waste can go jump off a cliff.

    Long version: Storage does not exist on required scales, actually building a sufficiency of it with current tech is ludicrously expensive, and the actually existing solution to that problem is to burn natural gas and wood.

    There are both economic/political, and ecological Problems with this.

    Economics/politics: This makes for a generating mixture which is overall one hell of a lot more expensive than the headline costs of solar and wind would have you believe, because it means when renewable generation is low, the grid gets taken to the cleaners by peaker plants extracting utterly unconscionable rates from the utilities to cover those shortfalls. Again: A lot of "anti-nuclear, we only need renewables" advocacy can be tracked back to fossil fuel interests! Gas tycoons are spending big money on this. Because it makes them rich.

    Ecology: Those peaker plants are the very height of terrible stewardship of the earth.

    On Wood: Remember me speaking up for sustainable logging? That was for the purposes of using said wood to build things and buildings. Not. For. Lighting. It. On. Fucking. Fire. You cant save the planet by burning it down.

    Re: Natural gas. Lots of people seem way too comfortable with the prospect of a natural gas powered future. I have Issues with it.

    First: Global warming is real. Natural gas is terrible on this count. Second: Natural gas means very high prices or fracking. Fracking is a very short term solution - fracked wells run almost entirely dry in two years! and further, the chemicals in fracking fluids are proprietary secrets.

    Which.. I just about refused to believe this when I heard it the first time, but it is a real fact about the world, and it makes me break out in hives that people who proclaim concern about the natural world are arguing in favor of a course of action in which natural gas tycoons inject chemicals into the aquifiers of the world by the thousands of tonnes without telling anyone which chemicals they are using!

    TLDR: I dont want a fight with greens. I want to render the fossil fuel sector as dead as the buggy-whip industry. Nuclear is the only reliable way to do that.

    737:

    "...the grid gets taken to the cleaners by peaker plants extracting utterly unconscionable rates from the utilities... Gas tycoons are spending big money on this. Because it makes them rich."

    I think it was gasdive who posted some quite horrifying description of the effects of it being done this way in Australia, where the rates are so unconscionable that they teeter on the border of being so high that people just won't pay them and the supply ends up still being unreliable because they would rather try and push the rates so high that they do occasionally go over that limit instead of leaving a bit of margin to make sure they don't. The "quite horrifying" bit is that a government can be so bleeding fuckwitted as to allow it to be done that way in the first place (not that ours is any better, but at least our load patterns and mixture of supplies are more conducive to getting away with it).

    The problem is, of course, although everyone deliberately blinds themselves to it, that what "doing it that way" actually means is trying to run an electricity supply system without any electricity generating plants. What there is instead is a bunch of money generating plants which happen to produce electricity as a by-product as long as it doesn't get in the way of generating money. The system has succumbed to parasite infestation: it is in the same condition as an ant taken over by a fungus which only allows it to get on with being an ant when that doesn't get in the way of propagating the fungus. It is only to be expected that it doesn't do very well at being an ant.

    Since nuclear plants are much better at generating electricity than they are at generating money, another result which is only to be expected is that nuclear plants don't happen.

    The solution is equally obvious: get rid of the parasites. This, in turn, requires getting rid of the governments that are so mindbogglingly fuckwitted that they think having things infested with parasites makes them work better. Preferably by way of the ballot box, but force feeding them tapeworm eggs until they learn the lesson through personal experience is not a method to be discarded without consideration.

    738:

    I used to completely agree with you. Times may have changed.

    (Storage Requirements and Costs of Shaping Renewable Energy Toward Grid Decarbonization Micah S. Ziegler, Joshua M. Mueller, Gonçalo D. Pereira, Marco Ferrara, Yet-Ming Chiang, Jessika E. Trancik)

    This paper was written by seemingly sensible people. The target was 100% availability over 20 years (based on prior weather patterns in several locations) and a price cheaper than alternative power. Why is this sensible? Because availability is the governing factor in how much storage you need. And, for poorer countries - price is, and arguably should be, the dominant concern. For that target - storage would need to be 20 USD/kwhr. That's 10x below current costs - so meh.

    But, if you drop availability to 95%, the required storage cost is 150 USD/kwhr. That's quite achievable. Given that appropriately sized renewables will have significant excess capacity (eg, summer vs winter) - even relatively inefficient conversion to some sort of long-term stored power (eg, biofuel) - should be able to stockpile enough fuel to bring availability back up to 100%. (Eg, in California, which is best case for variability AFAIK, there's about a 40% variation between summer annd winter.)

    So, I've started to believe that solar+storage costing may be usable in a fair portion of the world.

    Now, there are plenty of places where heating is a bigger cost than cooling and where solar output falls by ~5x. Those places are probably better off with nuclear. And yes, there is a moral imperative to develop cheaper nuclear plants - and to allow such development by revising, significantly, the regulatory regime and approvals process for nuclear plants. And yes, when I'm recognized as King and God, anti-nuclear protestors who delay plant construction will be charged against their expected carbon usage and mulched as appropriate, possibly retroactively. Now, people claiming that Northern countries could rely on transmission of power across nation-state boundaries should consider exactly how far Trudeau could trust the current resident if Canada's grid was driven primarily by US generation. Any answer involving trust really should disqualify you for political office.

    739:

    This doesn’t apply in the USA (which last time I looked has the benefit of a continent-wide grid)...

    Little appreciated fact... The contiguous 48 states of the US have three minimally connected power grids. (1) The western grid consists of the 11 states from the Rockies to the Pacific, plus Alberta and British Columbia in Canada, and a bit of Mexico. (2) The Texas grid covers most of Texas. (3) The eastern grid -- by far the largest in terms of generation and demand -- covers the rest of the US and the remaining Canadian provinces that touch the US, less Quebec. Grid boundaries don't exactly align with state borders. While all three operate at 60 Hz, they are not synchronized. IIRC, the current maximum power transfer possible between the eastern and western grids over AC-to-DC-to-AC interties is about a gigawatt -- call it the equivalent of one largish power plant.

    Converting to a single coast-to-coast power grid faces the same problem the US railroad and highway systems did: how do you bridge the 300 to 500 mile wide, largely unpopulated, Great Plains? The Great Plains population peaked around 1930, and has been declining ever since. There are a large number of counties that have dropped back below the standard definition of "frontier" -- seven people per square mile.

    740:

    Erwin Any answer involving trust really should disqualify you for political office. BOZO Trumpelstiltskin Cor Bin Putin Erdogan etc ....

    741:

    Ahem: grid level storage has a posse …

    Given that we're clearly moving towards electric vehicles these days, it's worth factoring in the EV fleet battery capacity. A high-end Tesla has a capacity of 75-100kWh, so let's go with 100kWh as a not-totally-implausible target for future car battery tech (graphene-based, perhaps) with reasonably fast charge/discharge and a long life (let's go for 10 years' hard use, rather than the current 500 charge/discharge cycles, as desirable).

    The current UK automobile/SUV fleet is roughly 31.7M cars (as of 2016), so one per two members of population. At peak rush hour 97% of these are parked up—the load factor is orders of magnitude lower than for public transport never mind civil aviation.

    If this fleet converted to pure EV and remained plugged in when not moble (assuming roadside charging infrastructure) we'd be looking at roughly 50kWh of storage per capita, or 150GWh overall. Storage which needs to be mostly topped-up to full, and can't be drawn down too abruptly … but the UK grid only amounts to about 60GW. So the UK's hypothetical private automobile EV fleet could in principle supply full grid base load for about 3 hours, maybe longer, in event of a total loss of all power stations, pumped hydro storage, turbogenerator backup, and so on.

    There are negative factors. True self-driving vehicles may reduce demand for automobiles. Automobile usage is diminishing among the younger generation (although I suspect a chunk of this is due to the systematic impoverishment of the millennials to pay for the lifestyle of the boomers). But if we have the capacity to roll out that quantity of batteries (subsidized by demand from the car-buying public) then we can presumably turn the battery factories over to churning out modules for grid farms rather than cars if car sales drop gradually.

    Extreme weather is another issue. Air conditioning demand correlates with sunlight, so there's that: but in the UK in particular demand for heat correlates with the hours of darkness in winter. Severe storms require wind farms to idle (to avoid damage to generators), and we also get those in winter. But … I wouldn't write batteries out of the picture just yet: a smart grid able to use EV cars as an additional reservoir is a big piece of the post-carbon jigsaw.

    742:

    Car charging is a bunch of extra load on the grid which can be trivially time-shifted around off-peak hours. Nobody is going to care when, exactly, during the night their car was charged, as long as when they drive off in the morning, it is fully charged. Training people to set an honest hour for when that is in the onboard computer is doable, and the requisite charging infrastructure is, well, basically the minimum required charging infrastructure anyway. This way of doing it means a higher proportion of all power demand becomes base-load, because the day-night cycle of power demand got a lot flatter.

    If your grid is mostly nuclear, that just means your capital utilization just got a lot better.

    If your grid is mostly intermittent, this contributes to the requirement for grid storage. Sure, you might be able to do back-charging for intra-day variation - The most trivial implementation: When you hit the charge button when parking, the house/apartment now has permission to go all vampire on any remaining charge during evening peak load.. but the tolerance for days with lower than average electricity supply goes way the heck down - because more of your economy is electric, and people will not be cool with the car not being charged in the morning.

    743:

    If on Oct. 19 Johnson resigns rather than ask for an extension, what happens then?

    IIUC the selection of a new Prime Minister takes some amount of time, but is it less than two weeks? How long would it take the new PM to get to the EU committee and request an extension? Can the extension be retroactive?

    744:

    If your grid is mostly intermittent you build excess generation and storage capacity until you have enough to cover all but a Xth-percentile string of bad weather, where X is large enough to satisfy your customer base.

    745:

    Which shifts the price per watt at which nuclear stops being cost effective upwards by a factor of I’d guess maybe two or so?

    746:

    If Johnson sends the letter, and on the 20th the EU replies “Sorry, we’ve had enough, no more extensions,” what happens then? Can the MPs grab control again and pass a “Withdraw article 50 notice” bill?

    747:

    If we're still dickering over the ticket price of energy then the world will burn.

    The basis of much economic activity on this planet is energy and many people, perhaps half the world population suffer from energy poverty. They don't want to be energy poor, they want lights that work all the time, electrified transport, water processing and pumping plants, all the good things the West takes for granted and they will extract and burn all the fossil carbon they can get their hands on to achieve something like the Western world's energy consumption levels per capita and fuck the next three generations. Telling them that if they install wind turbines and solar panels then they'll have adequate electricity supplies in twenty or thirty years time maybe and please not to dig up and pump and burn fossil carbon like the West actually does (Australian coal, Texas oil, Alberta tarsands, German lignite, Russian gas and oil, Norwegian North Sea gas and oil, British North Sea gas and oil etc.) then you can expect a cold welcome.

    As for renewables, Germany has spent about 350 billion Eu on solar and wind and garbage-burning plants over the past fifteen years or so and they haven't reduced their fossil carbon burn noticeably while they plan to import even more Russian fossil gas to keep the lights on (the Nord Stream II pipeline). Part of the reason for this expensive equilibrium is because they're having to replace the non-carbon-burning nuclear plants they are shutting down by legislative fiat and they're only just keeping up in terms of TWh generated annually. As for cost -- electricity in Germany costs twice as much at the meter as nuclear France for some reason even though renewables are soooo cheap and nuclear is soooo expensive.

    Storage -- it costs money to build electricity storage (pumped storage, the only real grid-scale storage we actually have cost about £200 million per GWh of capacity). The round-trip of energy in to energy returned in storage causes losses i.e. wasted energy usually in the form of low-grade heat (pumped storage is about 75% efficient). Storage requires excess generating capacity to fill that storage -- a lot of storage boosters seem to think the electricity stored comes from nowhere and the storage will always be at full capacity when it is suddenly needed.

    But Nuclear is Scary! and so the world will burn.

    748:

    I’m trying to find the fastest & cheapest way of getting them power, and how to decide between building new nukes and building solar with pumped hydro, or batteries if there are no convenient hills.

    Shutting down an already-operating nuke is totally counter productive.

    749:

    The problem is they see the Western Kyoto Protocol/Paris Accord states muttering sagely about reducing carbon consumption and climate change and how they should use renewables while those states pump and mine fossil carbon by the gigatonne-per-annum-lot and export it and burn it and don't suffer from energy poverty and they think to themselves "why should we wait decades to achieve 600W per capita of renewable electricity when those polluting bastards won't give up their own economic and operational dependence on extracting and burning fossil carbon?"

    Building nukes isn't hard, there's a lot (too much, probably) of regulatory bullshit that slows things down and increases costs but if they were being turned out like warships or aircraft in a shooting war then the delays to achieving 600W-per-capita via nukes would be less than the massively larger construction-per-MW overheads of renewables.

    We've got a worked example in France which went from effectively zero nuclear energy to 500W-per-capita nuclear generating capacity over a period of about 20 years and there's no technical reason why other countries couldn't follow suit if they put the effort and finances into it. Of course due to the MBA next-quarter results mindset which drives renewables uptake it's not going to happen.

    750:

    All attempts at doing in fossil fuels with solar and wind have been expensive failures. Failure is not an option if we want to survive global warming. Therefore: Reactors, and the concerns over cost can and waste can go jump off a cliff.

    There's, oh, I think four problems with that.

    One is that it's a political dead letter; nuclear is associated with completely irrational fear, government has completely used up its prospect of trust by lying, and industry has also completely used up its prospect of trust by lying. Did a lot of paid-by-fossil-carbon propaganda move that fear level up? Sure. (It didn't create the lying.) But it's there now. And as a general political problem, there isn't even a majority for "the climate has to be a political issue", never mind solutions. Attaching a solution where there's a vehement anti constituency to a the problem of getting climate action in place is not helping. (Not efforts to create those constituencies for solar.)

    Two is that even where nuclear has been very successful (France, Ontario) it's too expensive to do more of; you could build an awful lot of nickel-iron batteries for one new nuke plant. This is coming from people who are doing it and want to do more of it and cannot figure out how to make an economic argument for it.

    Three is that we are absolutely not going to survive global warming with our current nations or institutions. The planning horizons are "until agriculture breaks" and "after agriculture breaks". The baked-in-best-case for today's atmospheric carbon load is not less than 10 metres of sea level rise and not less than 20 days of lethal heat per annum below 40 N. So we're looking at a "where the hell do we site this 50 year investment?" problem, plus a "maintain in 30 years how?" Air cooled? Advocated, probably worth investigating, but not known art. Known art is great big water cooled installations and we haven't got good places to put them on that fifty year timescale. (2070 is twenty years AFTER the IPCC projections have agriculture break.)

    Four is that nuclear fuel isn't uniformly available; renewables are. The political costs to introducing energy dependency on foreign sources are high. (Yes, of course if you're not building solar cell fabs it's the same thing, really, but that's not how it plays politically.)

    Five, if we need five, is that we aren't going to be able to keep the grid distribution model going on a broad scale.

    The solution we do adopt will have to be doable by an economy composed of thereabouts of a million adults without much machine transport. We hope we're going to do better, but, well. Hope is not a plan.

    751:

    re: Shutting down an already-operating nuke is totally counter productive.

    This is one of those yes/no statements. There are cases and cases and they aren't all the same. Some nuclear plants are being run above their rated capacity and beyond the estimated safe lifetime. Those should be replaced. A bad nuclear accident would not only be a bad accident, it would damage the chance of better designs.

    What should be done is to push the creation of "inherently safe" designs, preferably NIMBY. If there's an accident in Jakarta, it won't cause nearly the uproar as if there's one in Topeka, Kansas, or even in Mexico City. And in Jakarta it has a larger marginal value. Similarly, China should push such work in Tibet. The marginal value is a lot higher, and the problems of a mishap are smaller. (Of course, politically the only reason admitted would be the higher marginal value.)

    People don't like someone else using NIMBY, but it's really an extremely sane attitude, and should be expected of everyone. Ideally there would be sufficient compensation to neutralize the NIMBY factor, but nobody ever seems to want to pay that much, so it's done as a power play. But Indonesia is already working hard on a Thorium cycle molten salt reactor, so subsidizing them for the work would seem a win-win. I don't know about Tibet, but it's cold and snowy there, and dependable electrical power would be a greater win there than in most places, so the marginal value should be higher.

    752:

    The reason China has an iron grip on Tibet is to ensure they control the headwaters of their major rivers. That's going to be even more important as the monsoon rains get erratic as the climate shifts. (Take a lot at any of the projections about Himalayan glaciers and annual snowpack and such.)

    The idea that sure, we'll put the experimental stuff at the headwaters of all our large, essential rivers is not especially well thought out.

    One considerable and ongoing problem with nuclear power is that no one will optimize for simple or production cost or life cycle cost; it all gets optimized for the kinds of efficiency measures that push performance, and therefore reduce reliability.

    753:

    perhaps half the world population suffer from energy poverty. They don't want to be energy poor, they want ... and fuck the next three generations.

    IMO that's mostly projection. You're taking the observable attitudes of the global 1% and applying them to the rest of the world. What you say might be true, but there's very little evidence for it. There's strong evidence for the "don't want to be poor" and very weak evidence for "will burn the world down to avoid it". What we see a lot is people so desperate not to die that they do ugly, shortsighted things. But we don't see them doing that just to be a little richer as opposed to a little less dead.

    A goodly chunk of the world is more concerned about not being murdered for what little they have, and they correctly identify the global 1% as the biggest threat in that regard. Look at the noises coming out of the Amazon, for example. Those people are somewhat concerned about climate change, would like a slightly better standard of living, and are frankly terrified that the genocide will continue and that the west will continue pouring money into it. The reason the Amazon is burning is that the global 1% are doing exactly what you accuse the other 99% of doing.

    The demand for beef and soy isn't coming from Africa, it's not coming from the Middle East, it's not coming from the poor half of Asia. It's coming from the existing upper classes and from the rising rich in China. But mostly it's coming from the 1%... in the USA. Sure, you're not rich compared to David Koch, I get that. But you "I so poor" eat a fuckton of meat, drive a fuckton of miles, and are observably right now burning the place to the ground.

    Pointing at other people and claiming they might want to do something like that some time in the future if they survive... deflection, projection, call it what you will. I call it bullshit.

    On a different note: where exactly are these global poor people supposed to get the tens of billions of US dollars needed to build nuclear power plants? Do you remember all the World Bank development projects, the billion dollar boondoggles? Most of those countries are still saddled with huge debts from that stuff. They can't borrow the money because they haven't paid off the last lot. Why would another round of that work better than the last round? And how could it possibly not be just another magic box built and operated by foreign workers paid in even more US dollars? You really think the people who don't trust Iran to operate their own nuclear reactors are going to trust Somalia or Myanmar to do so?

    754:

    On a different note: where exactly are these global poor people supposed to get the tens of billions of US dollars needed to build nuclear power plants?

    Where's the money to build renewables plus storage plus smart grids plus replacements for the renewables in twenty years time to come from? If you still think nationally on climate change and concentrate on the "money" then the world will burn while you piddle around trying to Band-aid a solution at the lowest cost (which always always means burning fossil carbon in out-of-the-way places while the poster children wind turbines and solar plants hog the front pages).

    The "money", actually wealth in terms of production facilities and materials costs and design and transport comes from everyone since climate change isn't constrained by borders and lines in the sand. I have a billboard figure of a quadrillion dollars US to build out enough non-carbon nuclear plant to provide ALL energy needs for 8 billion people, electrical, heating, cooling, transport plus a shitload of extra capacity to actively decarbonise the atmosphere and get it back down to 300-350 ppm. My guesstimate for that required capacity is about 25TW. Renewables by themselves aren't going to get anywhere near that amount of online capacity even with lots and lots and lots of batteries, pumped storage etc.

    755:

    China builds their reactor experiments in 404 - That is, the nuclear city in the Gobi desert where they built the bomb.

    Re: Reliability. Uhm. Near as I can tell, the all dominating design criteria for the EPR was "Reliability and durability". Hinkley C has its foundations 14 meters above sea-level, which in and off itself is sufficient to protect against worst-case floods up to 4 meters of sea level rise.. and they still designed the seawalls with the expectation that they might want to make them higher later, which means the site should be secure until, well, basically, mean sea level rises more than those 14 meters, and even then, I would not bet against people going.. "If we add a sump pump..." and keeping the darn thing running.

    756:

    Indonesia is already working hard on a Thorium cycle molten salt reactor,

    As far as I can tell Indonesia isn't actually working on a molten-salt thorium-cycle reactor. The Indonesian government has signed a lot of Memorandums of Understanding and the like, closer cooperation with folks like the Chinese in respect of their High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) which is a uranium-fuelled TRISO pebble-bed design and so on but bupkis regarding Sparking Unicorn-shit thorium. There are some Powerpoint presentations and CG representations of future prototype reactors in Indonesia including the similarly mythical Small Modular Reactors (SMR) so beloved of the TED Talkers but nothing concrete -- no funding, no designs, no pouring concrete and bending metal.

    In fact there does not seem to be anywhere on the planet that's actually doing anything real with thorium or even uranium-based molten-salt fuel transport. There are paper exercises, post-grad student theses and attempts to garner study funding (see Thor Power systems et al) but real engineering, nope.

    757:

    China is building a molten salt test reactor. Not a very large one, and they are not in any way running any pr blitz for it, but they are planning to split atoms, and the papers submitted from them to SAMOSAFE document that this is a real project.

    758:

    Since nobody has mentioned it, Modi,BJP/RSS right-wing-nationalists, and a bunch of scientists and engineers were disappointed Saturday (Friday for most of us) when communications were lost with the Vikram lander of the Chandrayaan-2 moon mission[1]. (The front rows of that control room looked rather male in shots yesterday; is that typical? The Reuters photos do have a few women.) If I were mean I would say that they now can't turn it into a high-tech "Triumph of the Will". Also N. Modi being compared to Lord Krishna[1] has been a bit offensive, similar to DJ Trump being likened to a chosen one and/or some biblical characters. But most of the mission hasn't failed, and who knows, perhaps the lander will wake up if it didn't crash.

    [1] India loses contact with spacecraft on mission to the moon (Chris Thomas, Abhirup Roy, September 6, 2019) [2] PM Modi and Shah are like Lord Krishna and .. (Aug 18, 2019), Politics as mythology: Does Modi's comparison of himself as Lord Krishna really ring true? (Feb 17, 2017 )

    -- Noticing some wikipedia edits related to the Sumerian pantheon last month. Related to וַתַּבֵּ֥ט אִשְׁתֹּ֖ו מֵאַחֲרָ֑יו וַתְּהִ֖י נְצִ֥יב מֶֽלַח etc? Laughed a bittersweet laugh 2 years ago(?) when I realized that a small joke was buried in there (with you, I assume intentionality).

    -- Piece on the current state climate migration north from Central America, with a good number of links and details. (Doesn't address future horrors adequately.) How climate change is driving emigration from Central America (September 6, 2019, Miranda Cady Hallett)

    Something else to stomp: It looks like Uber is getting into the small loan business for its drivers - Uber told drivers this week that it’s building a new financial product and asked them about loans. Critics are concerned it could be a payday loan system that’s predatory. (Shirin Ghaffary, Sep 6, 2019)

    759:

    Well, per latest news reports, we now have Boris apparently proposing to stay in office past the 19th of October, and just not follow the law. Speculation in the press is about court challenges and the like, but if Boris is going to ignore the clear letter of the law, why not ignore those? After all, it looks increasingly like the brilliant strategy of Cummings and Johnson is government by Martingale, in which the only response to a losing bet is to stay in and double down. And that won't stop until somebody stops them.

    (By the way, if you want a measure of their character, Amber Rudd just resigned from Boris's cabinet, and gave an interview to the Times flatly calling him a liar about even wanting a deal with the EU. But they just kicked out 21 party members, including several former ministers and Winston Churchill's grandson, so losing another few won't obviously matter to them either.)

    On your other point, there is no provision in Article 50 for a "retroactive" extension. Then again, there's no explicit provision for a leaving member state to revoke an Article 50 declaration of intent to leave once it's been given, and EU internal tribunals have since declared that to be OK under certain conditions. So, if everyone wanted to fudge it in a spirit of mutual trust and amity, a way might be found -- but it would be an extreme stretch. Don't bet your economy on it, particularly since mutual trust with Boris Johnson seems, at this point, to be a bridge that even his brother Jo won't cross.

    760:

    Not sure of the exact rules, but party's normally appoint an interim leader to act as party leader / PM / etc. until a leadership process is dealt with.

    As for the question of if the EU (or I guess more specifically France given they seem to be the must likely entity at this point) refuses an extension then the ball is back in Parliament's court and they would need to do something by October 31st.

    Total guesswork on my part, but I would hope there would be some conversations going on between the opposition leaders and the EU about finding a way forward. Unless the EU is feeling very generous (perhaps they need a couple of months to finish implementing their no-deal plans) I would guess they would want something, whether a referendum or election, to justify an extension. And really, if I am the EU I don't know that an election would be sufficient given that the 3 most probable outcomes are all a waste of an extension.

    761:

    Well, per latest news reports, we now have Boris apparently proposing to stay in office past the 19th of October, and just not follow the law. Speculation in the press is about court challenges and the like, but if Boris is going to ignore the clear letter of the law, why not ignore those? After all, it looks increasingly like the brilliant strategy of Cummings and Johnson is government by Martingale, in which the only response to a losing bet is to stay in and double down. And that won't stop until somebody stops them.

    Parliament has executed people before.

    This looks like a bet that either no one will think of it or no one can swing it.

    762:

    Simply put, the "world" isn't going to do anything significant to slow down never mind stop climate change.

    France attempted to rise the price of fuel and got a yellow vest protest movement, Canada is likely to elect a climate-denying government next month, there is a good chance that Trump gets re-elected (and even if he doesn't the odds of the Republicans going below 40 seats in the Senate are likely 0), the UK is likely to remain paralyzed by Brexit for the foreseeable future, etc, etc.

    Anyone expecting to be around for 20+ years should, to their ability, be evaluating where they live given the expected changes.

    763:

    It’s sort of funny, since I’ve been spending a lot of time in Melbourne lately I’ve been thinking about the way that heritage laws seem to be more enforceable in colder climates than warmer ones. The climate differences are in terms of stone masonry versus timber construction, but where construction is timber there seems less a concern around wood-eaters than in the warmer places. I note that for many high-valued older buildings in Queensland the presence of termites has been a regular excuse for non-preservation. The difference is quite pronounced: Melbourne is saturated with Art Nouveau and Victorian era shopfront facades. I can think of maybe a handful remaining in Brisbane’s CBD.

    I see a parallel when contemplating Edinburgh’s much older heritage precincts and the problems around space heating, double glazing and gas-tight sealing. Really, the problem of making these older structures liveable in 21st century terms is around energy expenditure. This consideration is a lot like something else I notice in Melbourne because it’s common there but rare in Brisbane these days, which is outdoor space heating. This is something that a low-energy culture would have to view as throwing watts into the air with wild abandon, caring little. You can maintain the temperature of a sealed, insulated chamber for a few dozen watt-hours a day, while heating an open space takes hundreds of watts while it is on and vanishes when it is turned off. It suggests a culture with energy so abundant that this is not a concern, and that’s the culture we live in, have lived in for at least a century and a half, probably will continue to live in till the crash.

    To me the serious argument in favour of nuclear is about ensuring we are able to retain this culture of energy over-abundance. It is also a way to retain the existing business model of highly centralised generation, to take advantage of massive economies of scale (whether you measure cost in money or in resources and other things) and work with a grid distribution model that allows individuals to purchase energy as a low-priced commodity. That is, we are used to energy supply being something we take care of at a societal level, and interact with mostly as consumers. Many of us bring a tacit assumption that preserving this model, and extending it to those parts of the earth where it is not currently enjoyed as the dominant mode of energy consumption or at least not to the same, reliable extent, is a mandatory part of the way energy must work in the future.

    That means a lot of the discussion about nuclear versus solar and other renewables is at cross purposes. I appreciate that a distributed model with more generation from local sites doesn’t work well for high density, and specifically solar doesn’t work well for high latitudes. But I don’t think we’re in a situation where doing all one thing will work. So look, I really see the merits of nuclear for the sake of not losing a lot of what we have. But I see other models working better, at least for the area I live, which is admittedly very different to yours. I can’t really see a future without dramatically reduced energy use, but I struggle to see a future at all, so it’s not that much of a leap.

    There’s another broad theme to how we look at the difference between reducing energy use and guaranteeing over-abundance, and that is in terms of a culture of lower or controlled entropy versus one of high entropy. We have been high entropy for a while, which is odd because in some ways life is itself a kind of spontaneous reduction in entropy. But it’s just another thinking point.

    764:

    The subtle difference is that solar especially can be built out in affordable increments by the people who want it. Individuals, families, villages, whatever, they can buy a solar system that's the right combination of price and functionality and run it themselves. Even very vague internet access is enough these days to get the necessary info - IME people in for example Timor are mostly just as ignorant of the necessary details as anyone else, but there's always one. One dedicated or smart type who does the deals to get lights and (cell)phones working.

    But luckily we aren't at that level even with fantasy nukes - the smallest SMR proposed to date is well over $1M in quantity and it takes an awful lot of poor people to come up with that sort of money.

    But as mdive points out, you're entirely right about the actions and beliefs of the 1%, the list of 1%'ers who are literally saying "fuck everyone I don't care if I die in a fire I will be comfortable now". And they vote accordingly. Australia and Aotearoa have both seen political parties desperately search for the mythical 'reasonable middle" and those have either vanished or been labelled extremists. TBH when 90% of the population is cheering on the catastrophe saying "catastrophes are bad" is an extreme position.

    765:

    Total guesswork on my part, but I would hope there would be some conversations going on between the opposition leaders and the EU about finding a way forward.

    Need someone with real knowledge to comment, but my perception from the outside is that the EU bends over backwards to avoid anything that looks like meddling in a member country's internal politics. I would guess that at this point, and particularly in light of Boris claiming there are ongoing negotiations, no one on the European Council or the negotiating staff will take Corbyn's calls for fear of getting caught.

    766:

    I’d meant to mention this too. Currently mono-crystalline solar panels are in the region of USD$0.30 per watt. Affordable on-site increments scaled to what individuals can afford are a reality now.

    It means scaling can also be incremental too, without relying on a huge supplier to carry the major capital cost and sell it to you in increments. It’s a different model but one that suits the developing world better in many ways.

    767:

    Solar's also inherently portable; you can take the panels down, pack them up, and move them. It isn't trivial but it's mostly bolts and annoyance.

    That's likely to be important as heat gets lethal and the sea rises. Can't move the nuke plants we've got.

    768:

    The localism argument is bloody well nonsense. The first, and cheapest way to make solar/wind more useful is interconnects, so you are not dependent on the vagaries of a single micro-climate. Without that ability to move power between locations, storage requirements become utterly insane.

    That also puts the kibosh on relocating, because it means the windmills and solar farms are only useful in the context of the grid they serve. If you insist on not doing large grids and build the requisite storage, the storage is going to be effectively immovable.

    If you want a movable, local grid, that is a luxury item, but sure, Russia will sell you an Akademik. Though, really I expect that most of the third world will opt for VVER-1200s instead. India just put in an order for 20 of the things.

    .. I am going to laugh myself silly if global warming ends up being averted mostly by Rosatom. Which, frankly seems pretty likely at this point.

    769:

    China is building a molten salt test reactor.

    Where? How big is the budget that has actually been allocated? How big will it be? What fuel loads are expected for the first few experimental campaigns?

    Don't make the common mistake of thinking academic conference papers, proposals and press announcements mean a reactor is ever going to be built anywhere. You will be doomed to disappointment (or at least until the next Shiny! pops up on the TED Talk circuit).

    In other news the second EPR built at Taishan in up and running only nine years after breaking ground, generating 1.6GW net or the equivalent of ten large windfarms with 2GWh of storage each (but more reliable).

    770:

    I have heard about two locations, first on the coast somewhere, and later in the Gobi Desert.

    I suspect it may be the same project which has been moved, but news about this is very spotty, usually arriving as a couple of obscure academic papers once a year.

    This recent-ish article only talks only about Gobi, but is very thin on actual details:

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/2181396/how-china-hopes-play-leading-role-developing-next-generation

    771:

    ... mutual trust with Boris Johnson seems, at this point, to be a bridge that even his brother Jo won't cross.

    His sister Rachel has also publicly called him an idiot disagreed about Brexit (example).

    772:

    Near as I can tell - it really isn't.

    Surveys of interest in renewables at a higher price point and lower reliability met near zero interest in India - which is a relevant market.

    Not a 'fuck the world', just a needing power to keep the lights on at school, etc and not really considering spending resources they don't have. Widespread renewable usage at above-fossil price points would have to be financed from first world countries.

    Besides, for a largely intuitive model - the cost of switching rapidly to the sort of sustainable lifestyle advocated by some environmentalists I have met appears to be pretty clearly in the gigadeath range anyways - so banking on some sort of technological solution while stalling doesn't seem totally irrational. (Eg, taking cars out of California would pretty clearly take over 40 years and probably wouldn't happen without martial law and a big expenditure on bullets. Never underestimate racism.) (People will spend 5 hours a day commuting rather than implementing sane zoning that might result in poor or brown people buying housing nearby.). Now, electric cars, sure, that probably will actually happen.

    Which is why getting non-carbon sources to price parity and ability to provide equivalent amounts of power is essential. It likely is possible with nuclear, a bit of development, and a relaxed attitude to safety. Frankly, it was likely possible 30 years ago. If you were an antinuclear protestor, please consider that your net lifetime contribution may be negative.

    Albeit, I'm getting a hunch that the chemistry for molten salt plumbing is harder than people think.

    Can solar do something similar? Probably, in some locations. Not everywhere. So far, solar has been an expensive failure - but the technology has advanced a lot. Besides, continual availability seems like an excessive requirement. I can see nation-states rationally choosing sources with modest downtime that don't allow for embargoes - particularly if they already don't have reliable power.

    Will nations finish this sort of project in time? Clearly not. Unless you develop a time machine.

    So, um, yah. Geoengineering needs to be a thing. Even the more drastic sorts.

    773:

    Bill Arnold @ 758 YUCK If they try that in Britain (at the moment) they will be stamped on HARD. After brexit, if it happens, maybe not so much. Which REMINDS ME of this nasty little piece - courtesy of "London Reconnections" for the original link.

    cdodgson @ 759 & mdive @ 760 I agree that the other EU guvmints have realised that BOZO is completely out-of-control ... & they MIGHT be sympathetic, but - THEY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOMEONE - if not BOZO, then whom? That's the problem .... And FUCKING STUPID Corbyn STILL wants "His" version of Brexit, as opposed to the majority of his party. Can someone PLEASE cough "push him under a bus" & get Kier Starmer in charge?

    @ 762 .... in 20 years I will be 93 & expect to be alive ... Google Earth says I'm 35m up ... And an old OS 25" map gives a nearby spot-height of 120' But I would be living on a smallish island, I think.

    Nuclear Power Agree with all previous posters, both on the physical difficulties, it's necessity & the lack of forward thinking. You may have to execute a few fake greenies to get them built, though ... um, err ....

    774:

    Where? How big is the budget that has actually been allocated? How big will it be? What fuel loads are expected for the first few experimental campaigns?

    Good questions but you missed a critical one: When?

    China's first one, a 10MW test reactor was planned for 2024 - but it's behind schedule. The bigger one, which was meant to be actually useful, had an optimism date of 2035 and apparently exists only as pretty pictures and lots of design plans.

    775:

    I'm getting a hunch that the chemistry for molten salt plumbing is harder than people think.

    Why yes, it can be tricky. Do you know of the Crescent Dunes plant in Nevada? Mirror farm, collector tower, very hot salt, double-digit megawatts. It's doing well but the engineering is still a work in progress. Handling molten salt is clearly a solvable problem but it is not yet a mature technology. I for one would not want try perfecting the art when the salt was also radioactive.

    As a side note, the Crescent Dunes plant addresses the energy storage problem by having a large insulated tank. At sunset it is full of very hot molten salt; by dawn, much cooler salt.

    776:

    @769, 774

    Experiments with regard to molten salt are conducted together with the chinese in hot cells in a nuclear facility close to where I live.

    Since 2015 they've also done a research program on liquid metal cooled reactors.

    777:

    Samofar and Samosafer puts out a bunch of papers on all this: State of the research seems to be that molten salt plumbing is perfectly doable, but you need to keep it both dry, and in a reducing state (meaning no oxygen in the salt) Not because failing at that is an immediate problem, but because if you do not, the salt will eat your shiny machine in a couple of months. Which has lead to hilarities like Copenhagen atomics being at this point as much a manufacturer of specialty stainless steel pumps, joins and valves as it is a nuclear startup. - Because nothing on the market was good enough.

    778:

    Surveys of interest in renewables at a higher price point and lower reliability met near zero interest in India - which is a relevant market.

    Did the survey explain that the alternatives were death and no electricity? Or was this a fantasy thing where the alternative was burning fossil fuels forever with no consequences?

    Ask the French just how much they like being given the choice between rivers or electricity... during heatwaves they have to cook their rivers or idle the plants in many places. I can't imagine that that's going to become less of a problem as the temperature rises. You can be casual about safety all you want, but air cooling a reactor that's designed to be water cooled only works for a short time.

    clearly in the gigadeath range

    I thought we'd agreed that that is what we have, the question is whether there's any interest in avoiding it? Either we get huge rollout of carbon sequestration technology very quickly (which requires inventing it first), or we convert to renewables, or we roll out nuke wholesale (ten times as many reactors as now, built far more quickly than we've ever built reactors before) with "a casual approach to safety". With an extra, say, 5000 nuclear plants rather than 500 and shall we say a major event every year on average rather than every 10-20 years as now? Hmm. Gigadeaths, you say?

    Which is why getting non-carbon sources to price parity and ability to provide equivalent amounts of power is essential.

    Why would we even want to try to do that? Making renewables more expensive is like the proposals to make nuclear less safe... WTF?

    To state the obvious again, whether solar works is local. In the icy far north it doesn't work well at all, but in a lot of Australia we have the opposite problem -there's so much rooftop solar in some areas that it regularly cuts out on sunny days because the mains voltage gets too high. And people buy it because it makes cheaper electricity than the grid provides, even when you're paying 15c/kWh to pass it through batteries ('green power' here runs ~30c/kWh, and if we plan to survive we have to plan on green electricity).

    Singapore is currently negotiating the right to build a GW scale solar power plant in Australia and run an extension cord to Singapore. I mean, it's obvious that that is never going to work, Singapore is notorious for the stupidity and profligacy of their leadership. Something something coal is good for humanity.{/sarcasm}

    For the cost of rolling out the quantity of nukes being talked about (in deaths or money) we could build such an oversupply of renewable energy sources that we might actually start to run out of places to put them. In Australia alone the cost of even just 5 or 10 of the 3GW nuclear plants being discussed is so much greater than the cost of a completely 100% renewable grid that no-one has been able to make nukes look plausible. The supporters seem to be the same people saying the government should directly fund a new coal fired power plant (as a fuck you to the greenies).

    That's where silly neocolonial projects like the Africa-Europe grid idea start to look financially reasonable, even if they have to outright bribe the African countries to participate (rather than asking nicely and paying reasonably). When the nuke advocates are talking $US50c/kWh or more for retail electricity a whole lot of wild ideas start looking cheaper by comparison. Or we could fantasise about rolling out a currently unproven design the way they rolled out nukes after WWII and just hope for the best.

    779:

    something else I notice in Melbourne because it’s common there but rare in Brisbane these days, which is outdoor space heating. This is something that a low-energy culture would have to view as throwing watts into the air with wild abandon, caring little. You can maintain the temperature of a sealed, insulated chamber for a few dozen watt-hours a day, while heating an open space takes hundreds of watts while it is on and vanishes when it is turned off.

    I blame the tobacco industry.

    Many/most nations have now banned smoking tobacco indoors (because secondary smoke is also toxic). So smokers get moved outside of venues like bars, restaurants, and pubs. But this results in decreased profits for those venues because smokers don't enjoy being forced to stand around outside. Upshot: uncovered patios with seating, where it's legal to smoke, and umbrellas to keep the weather off, and space heaters to keep the smokers from freezing.

    (If it wasn't about smoking—if smoking indoors was legal—those patios would either be fully enclosed or unheated for use during good weather only.)

    ((Also: outdoor heating ever needed anywhere in Australia, What The Everloving Fuck?))

    But to pull back and look at the big picture for a moment: this isn't just about a cheap energy economy, this is about capitalism.

    780:

    As far as I can tell, China sees this as a long term project, and given the rather mixed results everywhere else, a cautious and systematic approach does seem indicated.

    Given how new nuclear power is in China, if they can get MSR to work around 2040, then it will be ready to absorb the spent fuel from the conventional reactors, if that can indeed be brought to work as people hope.

    The major challenges in MSR are of a chemical nature.

    To make MSR work, you must continuously filter approximately half the elements from the periodic table out of your molten salt, lest they eat all your neutrons or your piping.

    That is sort-of-solved problem, but both the energy requirements, infeed chemicals and the resulting waste stream ara non-trivial.

    Even if not very radioactive, the waste stream is chemically very, very far from RoHS compliance, and not much of it is of sufficient value to warrant per-element recovery, probably not even the platinum group metals, as they would require mass-spectrometry to get rid of the radiactive isotopes before you could sell it.

    But still, nuclear waste "cleaned" up with a MSR and chemical processing is far to prefer to the raw mess, straight out of the reactor, so it is probably a good use of money for China.

    781:

    Geoengineering needs to be a thing

    Comments like that make me think I really do live on a different planet to you. Geoengineering is a thing, it is the thing, the major problem that we're facing, the cause of the gigadeaths some of us are trying to avoid. If we could just stop terrorforming the planet we wouldn't be having this discussion.

    If you were an antinuclear protestor, please consider that your net lifetime contribution may be negative.

    More or less so than the people who vote other than Green, do you think? The alternate I'm suggesting, BTW, is not "when 90% vote catastrophe" but "imagine even 55% voted to survive".

    This comes back to the when, where and how question. If you have to live north of the arctic circle then yes, solar power is demonstrably a bad idea. For some distance south of there it's not as good as other options. But where the other 70% of the population lives it's entirely practical. Whether it's financially feasible is a bit like "can we feed everyone"... obviously not, but the reason is not technological. And since you can't eat money, the reason is not really financial either. It's politics all the way down and oh shit is he going on about the global 1% again? {eyeroll}

    782:

    We have CCS technologies that work, but they are "boring":

  • Grow trees.

  • Hydrolyze them to charcoal.

  • Burn the offgas (mostly CH4) to drive a turbine.

  • Bury the charcoal underground, and leave it there.

  • 783:

    “You may have to execute a few fake greenies”

    You know Greg, you keep calling other people trolls, yet you come out with shit like this all the time, stuff which pretty much puts you out there on the same pathway as anyone else who calls for people of some class or other to be killed. Just note that every time you say this, I take it to mean that you are calling for those of us advocating for renewables or against nuclear here, myself included, to be killed, too. If that isn’t what you mean, well you’re not making that clear. The language you use, basically declaring stuff you don’t understand to be “fake”, is pretty consistent with a sense of entitlement that, if representative, makes Brexit pretty unsurprising. I suspect your mental model is less simplistic than that, but you sound a lot like the sort of England that raped the world back in its day.

    784:

    Dmaian @ 783 One: My partial bad ... I forgot to put the cough in there, or to add ... "or such less punisment, such as "Being exiled to Gruinard Island in perpetuity ...:" .... READ Moz' post @ 778, OK?

    We are going to NEED nukes, even in the "short" term ( i.e. 50-100 years ) - you seriously are going to have to STOP these people killing all of us, because of their stupid & ignorant religous prejudices against nukes ... how you do it, if you don't like that is open to creative suggestions.

    785:

    “I blame the tobacco industry.”

    Yes and no. It’s definitely a factor, but al fresco is very much a thing, smokers notwithstanding and there are plenty of cafes and even restaurants where the tables are mostly on the footpath, even in Melbourne in winter. There are permanent awnings, and some of these have permanent space heating installed. Smoking isn’t permitted in these sorts of areas, it’s mostly a factor of real estate being insane. On the other hand I note pubs with “rooftop decks” in Melbourne which can only be the smoking areas. So definitely capitalism, but also cheap energy.

    As for Australia and heating: it’s like anywhere... people from Archangelsk probably wonder why you would need outdoor heating in Edinburgh. It’s not unknown even in Brisbane, where evenings that drop to less than 10C are rare. But you can’t even buy a jacket that is warm enough for, say, Northern Europe in winter in Brisbane, outside specialty stores, mostly ski shops (there are a couple... but frankly more Queensland skiers are likely to be heading to Hokkaido then to Perisher). Melbourne is colder in general than its latitude (roughly 38S) would translate to in European terms (Naples or Athens). In US terms its latitude is very like that of the Bay Area. However there are frequent winds that bring cold air up from the Antarctic, and the roaring 40s fetch up on the coast around souther Victoria and Tasmania are pretty constant, so the climate there is cooler than just latitude would account for.

    786:

    In US terms [Melbourne's] latitude is very like that of the Bay Area. However there are frequent winds that bring cold air up from the Antarctic, and the roaring 40s fetch up on the coast around souther Victoria and Tasmania are pretty constant, so the climate there is cooler than just latitude would account for.

    As a footnote for those outside the US, the San Francisco Bay Area is not nearly as universally warm and sunny as the tourist advertisements would like you to believe, either. </understatement>

    787:

    I'd just like to note that I've visited Melbourne in early August and found the temperature pleasantly summery. Yes, there was an overnight frost, but it melted, and in the meantime the weather only needed a t-shirt plus open jacket.

    (This probably tells you all you need to know about me and temperature tolerance.)

    788:

    Air conditioning demand correlates with sunlight, so there's that: but in the UK in particular demand for heat correlates with the hours of darkness in winter.

    There is a way to alleviate that. It hinges on noting that people generally are comfortable at a temperature range rather than a specific temperature. Thus, it is possible to heat homes to the higher part of the comfortable range when there is surplus power and let the fall to the lower part when there isn't enough power.

    This is actually one of the experiments with building a smart grid on the Danish island of Bornholm. With some 40,000 inhabitants, a modern infrastructure and situated in the Baltic Sea, it is rather isolated from the continental power infrastructure, making it ideal for experimentation.

    (With district heating, it would also be possible to heat and store reservoirs of heated water, but that requires infrastructure that may or may not exist.)

    789:

    I've always assumed Greg was calling for me to be shot. Mostly because he was calling for me to be shot.

    It's so amusing that renewables are a "failure" when they're all that's holding Australia's grid together at present.

    We keep hearing about Germany having spent so much money, billions, and nothing to show for it.

    When you punch "world largest solar panel factory" into duck duck go, you get this.

    https://www.engineering.com/AdvancedManufacturing/ArticleID/18638/50-Million-Solar-Panel-Factory-Opens-in-Florida.aspx

    50 million USD factory, will make 400 MW of panels per year. That's equivalent to 100 MW of grid generation per year. Over 10 years, about the construction time of a nuclear power plant (according to the optimistic estimates on here, not according to actual experience) that's a GW. For 50 million. That's about 1/400th of the actual cost of a nuclear plant. Hand the panels out for near free and people will pay to put them up.

    France spent about 500 billion (500 000 million) in today's dollars. For the same money you could build 10 000 panel factories of that size (even assuming no economy of scale or efficiency gain). They'd then put out panels equivalent to 1000 reactors a year or twice the current world nuclear fleet. Every year.

    790:

    Re outdoor heating. I first saw it in Canada in the early 80's and was gobsmacked. It's pretty ubiquitous here in Oz now. It's dinner time now and the current temperature is 7C, 200 km north of Sydney. Not cold by Scottish standards but a bit chilly for dining comfortably. Weirdly it was 31C at this time a couple of days ago.

    791:

    The grid I worked for covered the snowy mountains region and that's exactly what happened there. Heating was via "controlled load" that we could switch on and off from our end as it suited us. They got cheap electricity, we balanced the grid and got rid of energy that we would otherwise have to pay to throw away. The switches were and are cheap and didn't need smart meters that everyone is so afraid of.

    Is also used for hot water heating in other places. I had lunch with one of my grid controller friends last week and he told me it's now being switched on during the day due to solar, rather than at night at it was when it was a pure coal grid.

    792:

    gasdive ...No actually, because you are not in favour of closing down all the nuclear power plants, yes? The screamingly obvious way to go carbon-neutral or even carbon-free, in the "short" term at least, is nuclear power, certainly for "developed" nations. But we can't because of religious objections - & yes it's a relgion because it's so irrational.

    Panels, OK, PROVIDED your guvmint doesn't cheat you ... I was seriously considering panels on the flat S (ish) face of my house - then the guvmint, under pressure from the carbon-sllers pulled the rug out, thanks for nothing. AND, of course, provided you have storage, which we don't have, so you need generation .....

    793:

    "I blame the tobacco industry."

    I blame the crappy laws.

    It didn't happen when the tobacco industry existed but the laws didn't. It would happen if the laws did exist but the tobacco industry didn't - people would simply grow their own, like they already do with weed despite that not providing the incentive of being massively addictive, or collect the wild plant if it grew wild in their neck of the woods, like they did before there was a tobacco industry.

    (Personal disclosure: enthusiastic smoker; have galloping emphysema probably induced by living in massive concentrations of feather dust, but no desire to stop smoking; reason for smoking tobacco in the first place is a different set of crappy laws constraining cannabis to be available only as a highly concentrated substance requiring the admixture of tobacco to render it smokable, resulting in nicotine addiction.)

    794:

    it is possible to heat homes to the higher part of the comfortable range when there is surplus power and let the fall to the lower part when there isn't enough power.

    This is your scheduled daily reminder that in Scotland, in the depths of winter, the sun is visible for no more than six hours a day (and here in Edinburgh—in the south—it never gets more than 13 degrees above the horizon). So solar is pretty much a non-starter, even with this phased heating/cooling cycle.

    One thing we do have here is night storage heating. Basically a bunch of fire bricks with air vents that can be opened or closed by a thermostat. When electricity is cheap (traditionally at night, drawing base load from under-utilized coal-fired power stations) they'd draw current and heat the bricks up to a couple of hundred degrees. Then during the day the vents could be partially closed and air would circulate through the bricks as needed to keep the dwelling at a reasonable temperature.

    The problems with night storage radiators are numerous. You have to have a roughly stable ambient temperature from day to day to target (if it's 5 celsius one night and -15 the next they're going to be inadequate), they leverage diurnal variation in power costs (radically different these days, when all the coal plants have been shut down and been replaced by wind turbines or, in the south, some solar), and they add grid transmission losses as an overhead to your domestic heating budget. Oh, and they're bulky (bolted to the wall, extremely heavy, and they protrude into the room). Frankly, something like a Tesla PowerWall and electric convection heating in each room is more flexible. (The only advantage the night storage radiator has is that fire bricks don't have a fixed number of charge/discharge cycles before they crap out.)

    795:

    I was there a week ago and it was similar (a bit breezy but okay in a light jacket). Previous visit I was wearing an open short sleeve shirt over a T-shirt, though the locals were wearing surprisingly heavy coats, which I took to mean they knew something I didn’t about what would likely happen when the sun went down and this proved correct. There’s a song about this. I gather it’s been freezing in between times, so I’ve been lucky.

    I love Melbourne. It’s a place that really rewards exploring on foot, but being spread out means you can only take on a bit at a time that way. Also, the greatest luxury in winter is a spot in the sun but out of the wind.

    796:

    ..... Because that factory is entirely automated, and has no raw materials costs? FFS Gasdive, make arguments that are not utterly facially ridiculous, please? The cost of a solar installation is the cost of the production and ultimate disposal/recycling of the full plant.

    You would not appreciate it if I claimed the only cost that mattered for the French nuclear rollout was the cost of building the Tricastin enrichment facility, would you? Because that is the equivalent to the argument you made in apparent full seriousness.

    As for how to handle the practicalities of a nuclear rollout, given the often fanatical resistance, I have some hope that modular construction will destroy the overall tactic that greenpeace and fellow travelers have perfected over the past few decades.

    The entire strategy of the anti-nuclear movement is to price reactors out of the market via legal and physical harassment and regulatory entryism. Delay a plant by a year, that is 9% on top of the cost purely in extra interest charges, delay it by five, 50+% cost increase. Derail a project entirely, and every other project in that nation gets slapped with higher interest costs because of the risk of that happening again which makes the delays cost even more money.

    This can be solved without shooting anyone. Modular reactor construction: The nuclear steam generator reactor is built in a secure factory, then shipped out and hooked up to a grid.

    The people working on this are all gung-ho about the potential for higher consistency in quality of construction, reduced costs from mass production, and so on. But the way I see it, the big advantage. The advantage which will break the back of the anti-nuclear movement is that it renders their entire playbook obsolete.

    Delays or disruption from malicious actors no longer cost the investors any money. The manufacturer can just sell the plant that just rolled off the line to someone who is not currently having an attack of the vapors and the town/city currently having an infestation of Greenpeace can buy the one that rolls off the line next year, no interest costs accrued. It sidesteps the entire problem. Peacefully.

    797:

    I don't think Greg's calling for anyone to be shot. I think he's just using the same kind of figurative language to vent extreme frustration with destructive religious attitudes gathering under the "green" banner as I use to vent extreme frustration with destructive religious attitudes gathering under the "finance" banner. If people in reality were being strapped down and force fed tapeworm eggs to teach them that parasite infestation makes things worse, I would be strongly opposed to the practice. But that very opposition to the reality of the idea renders it all the more aptly emphatic for use in a figurative context to express the frustration induced by the total impotence of rational argument to influence irrational beliefs held with such religious fervour that even the most outrageously extreme and direct demonstrations of their falsity would be of doubtful effect.

    Similarly, quite a lot of people on here have suggested that it would be a good thing to see some politician or group thereof with a malign influence in their local/national region to be strung up from a lamp post. I don't doubt that all those people are in reality thoroughly opposed to people being strung up from lamp posts, and if they saw it actually happening their primary concern would be putting a stop to it. But that doesn't mean that the figurative suggestion isn't a powerful expression of contempt and distaste; on the contrary, it makes the expression that much more effective.

    798:

    But we can't because of religious objections - & yes it's a relgion because it's so irrational.

    Greg, Ontario gets a big slice of its electricity from nuclear; thereabouts of three-fifths. (See https://www.ontario.ca/document/2017-long-term-energy-plan-discussion-guide/ontarios-energy-mix-end-2015)

    Cooling water has to stick to a temperature range and a volume of availability; zebra mussels (invasive in the Great Lakes) were a Big Deal for nuclear power generation (and everything else involving water intake from the lakes) and people remember all the rushing about getting intakes unclogged. Over the next fifty years, will there be another? (yes) Will we be as lucky with it being a strictly shallow-water organism? (not the way to bet.)

    The temperature is going to come up; how far out (and down) do the pipes need to go? Nobody knows. How high are the lakes going to rise as rainfall shifts and the eastern half of NorAm gets wetter? No one knows. All the existing plant is right on the water; you don't want to waste energy pumping water further than you need. (https://nowtoronto.com/news/toronto-islands-flood-2019/ note that some of the island infrastructure is the intake-and-water-purification plant for downtown. The level of public concern is arguably inappropriately low.)

    If you look at all that, you start having severe design problems; all the answers come down to "roll dice". (Where should we site this? What's our water availability trade off with pump size and cost and reliability? Can we site it out of the end-of-design-life lethal heat zone? Wait, lethal heat zone; what are the actual stay-operating cooling water requirements for the last quarter of this thing's design life?) The result is impossible to contemplate as a responsible building project.

    Note that this is right next to enormous, generally pretty cool -- traditionally freeze over in the winter -- fresh water lakes, where land costs are mostly not an issue. Pretty much the best place to build a nuclear power plant imaginable. And the people who run the existing plants can't make a convincing costed argument for making more of them. (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruce_Nuclear_Generating_Station for an overview.)

    Would it be great if the power generation Slowpoke design -- 20 MW! two per major hospital! -- had been developed and was available now? Sure. But it wasn't, and today, the first problem is that the hospital building is going to be a thermal deathtrap in less than its designed replacement life. If it had reactors in the basement, those would be making the problem worse.

    Meanwhile, just try turning off the streetlights or pricing light pollution (which has significant ecological downsides in dead migratory birds) or insisting people switch to the efficient light bulbs. And all the bright gods help you if you should start to point out that the housing stock will need to be replaced.

    799:

    This is your scheduled daily reminder that in Scotland, in the depths of winter, the sun is visible for no more than six hours a day (and here in Edinburgh—in the south—it never gets more than 13 degrees above the horizon). So solar is pretty much a non-starter, even with this phased heating/cooling cycle.

    Bornholm is roughly on the same latitude as Glasgow (55.8 N), so the solar visibility is roughly the same, though Bornholm is less cloudy. IIRC they use wind power, which Scotland (and UK I think) is quite well suited for.

    My main point was that heating in a well insulated house could also be used as a sort-of battery in the sense that excess capacity could be used to heat the home and let the temperature fall a bit when the electricity was need elsewhere.

    Most Danish households (including my own) has district heating where waste heat (historically from coal power plants) is used to heat water and route it through insulated water pipes to radiators in homes. Depending on the house, it may also interact with a boiler in the house, but I am a bit fuzzy on the details.

    There are some pretty neat technologies for large scale heat and electricity storage being worked on, for instance https://www.niras.com/projects/innovative-energy-storage/ claims to be able to store energy and retrieve 40% as electricity and 40% as heat using rocks.

    800:

    Pigeon @ 797 Agreed to both actuallty, since the "finance" banner you are talking about are the irresponsibe about 5% who give the rest a very bad name. But srew it royally for everyone - I mean we all need banks, right? Just not gambling with other people's money for your personal profit & there is a difference. Same as I refer to the "Fake-greenies" as opposed to those who are trying to do theor bit however small. Though in the case of BOZO, if he gets away with crashing us out through deliberate inaction & Corbyn's utter incomptence ... I for one really would like to see him hung - slowly, as slowly as possible for treason & trashing all our lives. Let's hope it doesn't happen, yes?

    Graydon PLEASE, don't get me started on light pollution. And my house lights are ALL either led's or (in the kitchen) discharge-tubes

    801:

    Transmission losses right now are around 3% per 1000 km, and will inevitably fall as we get better at building MV links over 10 GW. That's comparable to the best storage systems, and better than many. So anyone (such as OGH) much over about 50º latitude, without handy geothermal or hydro resources, should be importing power for when the wind doesn't blow.

    Spare GW should be exported, or used to smelt aluminium or similar, not for storage heating!

    802:

    The major challenges in MSR are of a chemical nature.

    The big problem with molten salt reactors is that they're hot, a lot hotter than the steam-kettle PWRs and BWRs where the ceramic fuel pellets only get up to about 500 deg C and the coolant to about 380 deg C. The salt stream in a molten-salt reactor is at 700 deg C and more, the point where most steels lose half their strength whereas the fissioning fuel in the salt may be as high as a thousand deg C. The higher temps enhance corrosion and since molten salt has a lot of fission products in it you have a witches brew of acids and alkalis to fend off in the piping rather than deoxygenated high-pressure steam as in PWRs. One "solution" being mooted for MSRs is to actively chill the pipes carrying the salt to form a protective film of solid salt on the inside of the pipes. You can imagine the energy budget required to maintain this solid film consistently and what might happen if the coolant systems fail.

    Thorium is another matter; basically you have to operate a breeder reactor to make Th-232 into fissile U-233 since you need a lot of moderated neutrons in a very small volume to achieve the neutron capture/breeding followed by a neutron collision to induce fission of a single U-233 nucleus. Breeders do not have a great track record of success in this world since they require a very hot very dense core subject to a very high radioactive flux from fission products as well as a hellish neutron flux. The Thorium MSR Cowboys have a simple solution to this, they don't call it "breeding", they call it "converting" Th-232 into U-233 and that makes it a trivial task apparently.

    There are some exotic reactors out there that have been built like the Soviet/Russian BN-series fast-spectrum reactors which are not-a-breeder but they run hot and are cooled by liquid sodium. They immerse their heat exchangers in the sodium pool so the only thing that leaves the reactor vessel is good old high-pressure steam. The Chines have been campaigning a small high-temperature pebble-bed reactor cooled by helium but the track record of pebble beds is again not good (see the German failures for examples) adding weight again to the principle that moving fuel around in a hot radiologically dense volume is a bad idea generally. They've bent metal and poured concrete on a bigger pebble-bed reactor (the HTR-PM, two of which are supposed to drive a 210MW turbine) in Shidaowan but the last I heard of it they were loading it with moderator pebbles and that was back in 2017. No news of fuel pebbles being loaded, no news of the second reactor of the generating unit pair being built which suggests the project has been canned or at least mothballed.

    803:

    So anyone (such as OGH) much over about 50º latitude, without handy geothermal or hydro resources, should be importing power for when the wind doesn't blow.

    Assuming, of course, that you aren't importing from/through a country that has been known to use the threat to cut off supplies/raise prices to get what it wants…

    (Or even just take what it needs leaving less/none for the downstream customers.)

    804:

    Except solar really isn't all that affordable for most people despite the drop in prices over the last decade.

    A quick search online reveals the cost of panels and installation for your "average" US house comes in around $20k.

    Government subsidies can certainly help if they exist, but the reality is that the boom in solar in the US for the last decade has been primarily driven by operations like Solar City who in pay the upfront costs. You average home owner simply can't afford the costs of solar.

    Those options aren't available everywhere, and while a village in India wouldn't necessarily need a $20k system they would still struggle to come up with the money for a smaller system.

    805:

    Solar is something you put on the roof with the roof, either when you first build the house, or when you tear the old roof down and put up a new.

    Retrofitting solar to existing roofs, while both possible and even sometimes economical is not what we should be concentrating on.

    806:

    The high temperature of MSR is actually half their attraction.

    (Higher temp -> higher turbine efficiency -> More electricity)

    To get similar temps with water, you have to use really high pressure, which is a lot more trouble than molten salt, both from a safety and a corrosion point of view.

    But dont get me wrong: The corrosion problem is ver real and probably the biggest obstacle for China, where finding a place to bury radioactive waste has never been a NIMBY problem.

    807:
    Assuming, of course, that you aren't importing from/through a country that has been known to use the threat to cut off supplies/raise prices to get what it wants… (Or even just take what it needs leaving less/none for the downstream customers.)

    Of course. So let's import from Spain, via France. Admittedly, Scotland may have to import via England, which (given the way English politics is going) may become problematic.

    808:

    The reason molten salt is favored for breeders is that there is nothing breakable in the highest flux zone. A fast-spectrum molten salt reactor is, basically, just a tankful of salts of carefully selected size and neutron reflectors on the outside. No fuel rods, no moderator rods, no moving, or for that matter, fixed parts in the highflux zone at all, just the salts. The salt cant degrade from the operating temperatures or neutron flux, because the bonds just reform when broken, so if you can keep it from eating the tank and the heatexchangers Bob is your uncle, and you are home free and clear.

    809:

    Late reaction ... TJ @ 768 Just looked up the Soviet/Russian "VVER" design. Why don't we simply file the serial numbers off & start bulkding several hundred copies of those? Surely CHEAPER than paying the Chinese silly sums of money, even including the armed shoot-on-sight gurads you might need, of course, um, err ..... (again ) CERTAINLY solves the energy/power/Carbon problem, does it not?

    810:

    You don't run water-cooled reactors at really high temperatures to start with. Efficiency is not a major design target for nuclear reactors -- the British Advanced Gas-cooled Reactors are the best-performing production reactors, about 8% more efficient than PWRs and BWRs but the cost of fuel isn't really a factor in operation costs since uranium is ridiculously cheap to mine hence "Nothing like this will be built again" as someone told OGH.

    The fast-spectrum reactors like the BN-series have much better burnup rates than anything else being built today, producing a lot more heat and electricity per kilogramme of uranium fuel consumed but that efficiency isn't the real reason they're being developed. There's a long wishlist of Good Stuff they should be able to achieve, from using up surplus weapons grade plutonium through to the fabled Waste Eater operating cycle (which would also destroy a lot of Greenpeace arguments about having to store waste totally safely for billions or trillions of years because Godzilla). Still early days though, and the fuel formulations for these sorts of reactors are still in kindergarten. Next up, I understand, is metallic fuel elements leading to weapons-grade Pu-239 being used in reactors.

    811:

    The reason molten salt is favored for breeders is that there is nothing breakable in the highest flux zone.

    That, and the possibility of quickly removing the desired bred material from the neutron-rich environment before it can get transmuted to other things. I.e., plutonium breeders like short residence times for the fuel in the core, and George Herbert had an informative couple of posts about the thorium -> U233 matter on this very blog several years ago.

    812:

    From the perspective of a third world national, my perspective would be that this carbon pollution is pretty much a first world problem - in that you people burnt it all and should be responsible for cleaning it up. If you are really worried about my use of wood to keep the family from freezing, feel free to ship a few solar plants and storage. The incremental risk from fossil usage is likely a lot lower than the incremental risk from a lot of other expenses that people in third world nations can't necessarily afford. (Some study showed pretty good declines in child mortality at around an extra 500 USD yearly)

    Oh, and if you're hoping to set me a nice example by using solar now and preaching, well you're kind of assuming that I'll look at someone who excreted in our food supply and is now setting an example by going on short rations with admiration. I'd be more inclined to give you rations from the tainted food.

    But heck, if I was in a good mood, solar is expensive - can't afford it. So, yep, adoption of expensive energy technologies isn't going to be fast in the populations that actually matter. Cause see, if the US and Europe suddenly go carbon neutral and South America and Asia shrug - the improvement in outcomes will be very marginal. Well, barring creativity - one awesome part of solar is that it doesn't require much infrastructure.

    That said, one useful thing that is helping is having the first world function as early adopters - this allows economies of scale.

    Oh no, nuclear safety. This is a bad argument. Per watt, coal kills about 500x more than nuclear. Assume we're cheap and lazy enough to increase risk by two orders of magnitude per plant.... You'd still save quite a few lives. Remember that coal is the baseline. And really, the last few orders of magnitude in risk reduction tend to be pretty expensive.

    And, oh no, nuclear cost. From comparison of reactor builds elsewhere with the US, just the regulatory premium without noticably impacting safety is about 3x.

    There is probably a certain level of frustration from noticing that very much the same people who marched against nuclear plants for fortyish years and successfully priced the technology out of the market are now worried about carbon release from coal.

    And yes, we are currently working towards venus-forming Earth. Maybe, just maybe, instead of stopping carbon release, we could start putting real resources into carbon capture. And given warning of gigadeaths, worries about unanticipated effects ring fairly hollow.

    @Barnes I strongly suspect that most nations will keep primary power generation within that nation state. Democracies occasionally elect idiots - who would use that sort of vulnerability as leverage. Therefore, solar can't be a complete solution. Imagine:

    Trump: I'm gonna get the best deal with Canada... (Timed for the cold part of winter)

    @molten salt. I started being skeptical after hearing about molybdenum plumbing. Meh. Probably solvable.

    I'd also argue - for solar skeptics - that the trendlines and current pricing for solar/storage are pretty encouraging. There are a lot of places where they'll probably work. This time probably really is different. It is true that there are valid concerns about some locations, past performance, and possibly unrepresentative pricing. But, well, the technology is more promising than laser fusion.

    814:

    You know Scotland exports electricity to England most of the time now?

    We have a lot of wind up here. (Solar is a bit crap, but wind? It blows and it blows.)

    815:

    Re: headwaters

    Tibet is fairly large, and you'd want to build on somewhere rocky rather than icy anyway, so there should be plenty of places remote from river headwaters.

    But perhaps Mongolia would be a better choice.

    816:

    Maybe, just maybe, instead of stopping carbon release, we could start putting real resources into carbon capture. And given warning of gigadeaths, worries about unanticipated effects ring fairly hollow.

    Amping-up the carbon in biosphere, so that more of it is in soil, wood, grassland root systems, etc. is the only halfway practical carbon capture option.

    Actual sequestration -- getting the carbon back out of the biosphere for geological time -- is unsolved and really really difficult.

    The critical problem with the geoengineering proposals aren't the unforeseen problems; the problem is the foreseen problem of breaking agriculture sooner. It's pretty much impossible to use any of the temperature-addressing approaches to make the weather MORE predictable.

    Only way forward is "fossil carbon extraction stops; see how much prairie and forest can be reinstated; post-agricultural food supply, how do we do that?"

    Unfortunately that's the "kill capitalism" one, which is kinda Hard Mode.

    817:

    For me the real, as opposed to incentivizing, purpose of nuclear energy is that without it space habitats can't be made mobile. And I believe that mobile space habitats are essential to the long term survival of humanity. Controlled fusion would be a lot better, but fission can probably be made to work. It's just that it supplies a lot less power per unit, and refueling would be a lot harder. Enough harder that it might make things problematic for extra-solar migration.

    The universe is dangerous enough that sometimes the only way to protect your species is to have parts of it somewhere else. Of course, baring human intervention (e.g. war), we've probably got a long time before, say, a nearby supernova, or one of several equivalently dangerous things happen. But when you or a huge number of small probabilities together you can end up with a near certainty.

    818:

    Solar on the roof means sun on the roof, and that's a huge waster of potential cooling. The right way to do things is probably to plant hedges on the sides of a house, for insulation, then large trees on either side to shade the roof. The prevents the use of electricity for unneeded cooling. The solar panels should go elsewhere, perhaps along a south-facing fence (if one is north of the equator.)

    819:

    I prefer: Turn the trees into archival grade paper and print books. Subsidize public libraries that actually hold onto books again, and charge them heavily if they "discard them".

    820:

    I don't know about everywhere, but in the SF Bay Area the cost of installed solar panels didn't exactly fall with the cost of the panels. Most of the cost, even 15 years ago, was installation. Then there's various interconnect electronics to allow it to hook up to the grid.

    Well, that was 15 years ago, but recently it became time to replace the roof. It was quite a shock to find out how much it would cost to have the solar panels removed and reinstalled. In the neighborhood of $15,000. But the panels were still pretty good.

    P.S.: We didn't put in quite enough solar panels to cover our needs. With the inverter and all we had two reasonable choices, not quite enough, or twice that much. Off the grid wasn't a reasonable option. (We checked.)

    821:

    Charles H @ 815 If not actual "Mongolia" how about Xinjiang province, where the Han currently have a very brutal grip in progess ....

    822:

    Some of the PR for modular reactors is quite nice. Passive cooling is a real bonus, as is unattended operation. The problem is, given all the prior lies I'm not sure how much to believe.

    The "prior to 2015" generation of reactors is not something that should be trusted. There were a few designs that had a lot of promise, like the swimming pool reactor that would just shut down if the water went away for whatever reason, but they don't appear to have been the chosen model to build out. Instead they chose a model that required a totally insane amount of continual oversight and control. And they could never figure out what to do with the spent fuel rods. (Burying something that was still generating useful power? Stupid! There's got to be some better approach, if only space heating.)

    823:

    The past few years, I've been fascinated by the potential of Advanced Rail Energy Storage (ARES) as a electric-grid storage solution, specifically in places like the Western USA that have vast amounts of land and sloping terrain but little water.

    The classic solution has been pumped water for later hydro power, old-tech. Even in Victorian times, this was a thing, and Muckross House in Killarney, Ireland had house and village electricity in the 1860s from a water-pipe between two loughs nearby. (I visited there, recently.) But suppose you want to migrate, say, Los Angeles to renewable power, and thus need grid storage. Two new huge lakes at different altitudes aren't a go.

    The Sierra Nevada are right near by, and vast cheap land in Nevada, thus a lot of empty, dry land with sloping contour so you can make systems that go up and down half a kilometer in elevation inside of ten kilometers of horizontal distance. In short, you build an outré kind of automated railroad with an electric third rail. It has a 7% grade, and one end is 640 meters lower than the other. On the track, you put an engine railroad car with a big electric motor, and on that car you put a huge 300 tonne block of concrete. (To go more eco-friendly, one could use a big block of granite. There's nothing but granite, nearby, and retired counterculture cartoonist Dan O'Neill, of the once-celebrated cartoon Odd Bodkins, is reported to amuse himself in the Sierra foothills creating cubical boulders using blasting powder. Maybe he could craft a few pro bono publico.)

    During the day (spare electricity to store), you draw from the grid to feed the motor, which chugs the concrete block higher up the track. During the night (need to feed electricity to the grid), you send a signal to the car to start coasting back downhill, which drives the motor shaft and makes it function as a generator (aka regenerative braking), feeding the grid.

    Need more capacity? Either couple additional cars and blocks to the existing one, turning it into a multicar train, or add more tracks parallel to the existing one. Or both.

    2 to 3 gigawatts, cheaply, easily, nothing exotic, no pollution, hardly any noise, no significant environmental impact. The train goes up; the train goes down. And this is all ancient COTS tech.

    A few years back, there was a respectably large pilot project. I ought to check on progress.

    824:

    Villages in India have a different installation problem than the installation in the US, and even in the US installation is a lot cheaper if you don't need a rooftop installation.

    As a result I don't think you can use an internet search of installation prices as an argument for what it would cost to install in a remote village. That would be done using (mainly) local labor and wouldn't need to connect to the grid, rather it would be the (local) grid's power source.

    825:

    As I said, the prime point is that modular, meaning "Movable" nuke plants dont have to care about pr much. Akademik Lomonosov is a good example of what I mean. Greenpeace did a huge round of pr attack against it. None of which made a lick of difference to anything. Built in baltic shipyard, moved to the arctic, noone at any point got to picket anything. And while the Akademik is darn expensive, it is also the first entry into a market where all the competition is also insanely costly - There are a lot of islands currently running on diesel generators fueled by tanker ships having to make detours to even sell them fuel. A reactor barge is cheap next to that.

    826:

    Approximately half the $20k for US solar is the price of panels themselves.

    Half the Indian population earn less than $2700 a year, and I am guessing that there is little in the way of extra money available in that yearly income to contribute to a "village improvement fund".

    So even removing installation costs it is likely to still be a cost problem to go solar for these hypothetical 3rd world villages, all for power that only works for maybe half the day.

    They are continue to go with established things like diesel generators or burning coal/wood.

    827:

    On this blog lately I've found recommendations for a couple of exceptional media products, "Stand on Zanzibar" and the Danish TV series "Borgen". Reciprocity is observed even in chimp interactions, so how can I, a garden variety human, not feel obliged to offer these titles in exchange:

    "The Undoing Project" by Michael Lewis, tells about the decades long research teamwork of Kahneman and Tversky which led to the 2002 Nobel in economics. It describes their life stories and personalities, as well as the immense impact their work had on data based decision making. Next, move on to Kahneman's own book,

    "Thinking Fast and Slow", which is a revelation about how the human mind works. It explains many idiosyncratic conflicts our species experiences with modern civilization, owing to the inborn structure of thought patterns. Statistical reality in particular runs counter to intuition, as Kahneman demonstrated repeatedly among scientists and trained professionals in government, the military, law, business, and even statisticians themselves. Reading this helped me accept the fact that in our lifetimes, there will never be the massive global rollout of nuclear energy necessary to replace fossil fuels. Such a program would simply require more rational thought than we humans are capable of in politics.

    So we might as well support Warren with clear consciences despite her anti-nuclear stance. At least her work, as a government regulator over the investment industry, throws a scare into Wall Street weasels. That's a good thing!

    828:

    Most of the people who talk about "movable nuclear reactors" have never done the math to find out what size they need to be, or how heavy they will end up being.

    The sheer bulk of Akademik Lomonosov should make them stop and think.

    829:

    Most people ignore two of the three heat transport mechanisms in their mental gymnastics, and as a result, they come to really weird conclusions some times.

    Roof-integrated solar (ie: solar panels instead of tiles) can trivially be made with a reflecting under-roof, which will cool your roof more in direct sunshine than your trees will ever do.

    The only reason we do not use reflective roofs (much) is that pilots hate them.

    If you put the reflective surface under the solar panels, pilots do not care.

    Bonus: You can do this also on roofs in climates where planting hedges and tall trees around your house is not a thing.

    830:

    So let me get this straight: you’ve looked up the cost to get a system set up in your burb, and you’re applying this cost in India. Looking at pricing for installed systems in India, I’m seeing USD $3-4k for 3kW, which is about the standard size of a grid-connected system in Aus (1.5kW used to be pretty common till the prices started coming down, now it’s trending toward 4.5). I think a lot of these things are currently marketed and built to a price, rather than costed out on the basis of the component prices.

    You’re still not getting the incremental thing though. Unlike other ways to get power, with solar you can buy it in much smaller increments, including, e.g., a single 50W panel that can charge your phone and maybe the batteries in a handful camping lanterns. Not much more than that to run your laptop and LTE modem. I agree this is not the same thing that a US household would expect from its power supply, but it’s a reality now.

    831:

    Most of the cost, "15 years ago" was not the installation. Panels 15 years ago were about 20 USD/W wholesale. Now they're about 20c per watt wholesale. If you're being charged 15000 dollars for 2 days work for 2 people who are probably being paid 12 dollars an hour, I'd suggest you immediately start a solar installation business.

    832:

    "Approximately half the $20k for US solar is the price of panels themselves"

    https://m.alibaba.com/amp/product/60814549771.html

    At 19 cents per watt, if an Indian village bought 10 000 dollars worth of panels, that's 50 kW. That would charge about 10 000 cell phones, (probably the main use they currently have for electricity)

    "all for power that only works for maybe half the day."

    So about 6 hours a day more than they have now.

    833:

    So about 6 hours a day more than they have now.

    Robust LED battery lights with rechargeable batteries aren't cheap but they do last and having effective cold light is important. Plausibly more so than the cell phones.

    834:

    Pro nuclear usually like to argue exclusively about construction costs, so I usually try to take them on head on, and ignore running costs.

    Do you really want to compare whole of life costs of 10 000 solar panel factories (which yes, actually are so highly automated that it's cheaper for a Chinese company to build a factory in the USA and pay US wages than it is to make the panels in China and ship them.) with 25 000 nuclear reactors? Really, that's the platform from which you want to argue the case for nuclear? Don't forget, that when you're talking 25 000 reactors, the stupidly low price of uranium isn't low anymore. You're going to be extracting it from seawater or something.

    835:

    They're very cheap compared to kerosene lamps, which is what they use now.

    836:

    "The right way to do things is probably to plant hedges on the sides of a house, for insulation, then large trees on either side to shade the roof."

    No, that's the wrong way to do things. Planting large trees close to your house in places where heat is an issue has a technical name. We call it "stupid". It's generally recommended that you have 20 metres cleared around your home for fire defense and more if you're on a slope. Even if your fire survival plan is to leave, an open area gives fire fighters a place to make a stand and a chance at saving your home.

    Additionally we are looking at lethal temperatures. Air conditioning is going to be essential for survival. That means electricity.

    837:

    Sigh.

    We have to keep it so sane for you old men.

    Man who gave Sinn Fein £1.5m 'had no allegiance' to party

    Mr Hampton had previously run a market stall in the area called 'Bill the Drill'. The Times claimed that Mr Hampton had been admitted to the ward after cutting off his own penis after being accused of having an affair with a neighbour's wife. Mr Hampton allegedly marched into his road in Rainham, Kent with a kitchen knife and sliced off his own penis, telling the neighbour “I’ve never touched any woman and I never will”.

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/man-who-gave-sinn-fein-1-5m-had-no-allegiance-to-party-38476347.html 7th Sept 2019

    Hint: it's the Times, that's pure spite there.

    But if you want a real head-fuck, go grep people digging out their eyes / cutting off their penises. Let's just say, it's not what you think it is. Nasty Nasty.

    For Sleepingroutine (check the dates, Aug 21st 2019)

    Dieses Observatorium ist jetzt verschwunden. „Am 21. August um 8 Uhr 15 stellte es die Datenübertragung ein“, berichtet Boknis-Eck-Koordinator Prof. Dr. Hermann Bange vom GEOMAR, „zunächst dachten wir an einen Übertragungsfehler“. Doch ein Tauchereinsatz in der vergangenen Woche offenbarte eine deutlich ernstere Situation. „Die Geräte waren weg, die Taucher konnten sie nicht mehr finden“, sagt Bange.

    https://www.geomar.de/service/kommunikation/singlepm/article/unterwasserobservatorium-bei-boknis-eck-verschwunden/

    There's always a cover story for the cover story for the MEG / Kaiju.

    Or how's about this:

    The exposed server contained more than 419 million records over several databases on users across geographies, including 133 million records on U.S.-based Facebook users, 18 million records of users in the U.K., and another with more than 50 million records on users in Vietnam.

    https://techcrunch.com/2019/09/04/facebook-phone-numbers-exposed/

    Hint: this is the cover for the cover because Zuck got called to Ireland (he ignored it) and they're providing cover for the TAA stuff. Can't be illegal if you "could have got them" via another illegal hack, eh? Clever, if you're a marmot.

    Or this:

    GrabBag is trending in the UK, despite being a USA based LARP driven company thing. You've got multiple actual police forces tweeting it out using American Product Suggestions. This is like Beano levels of Zombie Procedural Disaster movies.

    Oh, and the kit is crap: if you want a decent go-bag, find the ultra-preppers.

    No, really: a lot of the UK police force (official) are tweeting out some corporate chum stuff. SPANG.

    Or this:

    More politicians quit, even Rudd goes (she was never going to win again), and there's loads of ex-CHUMCHANGE going to Libdem... without much of an idea of how any of them will actually gain seats.

    But, if you want the real skinny.

    Five of the OLD THINGS turned up last night since one of the last Guardians died (killed herself, 4th, Candles lit, we see you) and took the bait of what we were.

    It was. Messy. A Scythe? Come on, that's just a bit brutalist.

    We're still here and their Minds aren't though.

    838:

    Oh, and props to people who actually did a grep and realized their current newsfeed rather resembled it.

    A. Swartz, MIT, Joichi Ito in 5.4.3.2.1.[1]

    Welcome to the desert of the real.

    [1] https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/460390-mit-media-lab-director-resigns-over-epstein-scandal

    ~

    The real head-fuck is going to be when those people claiming that they can't be traced notice that our Landing / Awakening kinda ties in with an overly-offensive response to noticing things like that above.

    2019.

    3 months, then we actually start the Pattern Breaking.

    Good cheer and remember: It's a Mirror.

    839:

    The real head-fuck is going to be when those people claiming that they can't be traced notice that our Landing / Awakening kinda ties in with an overly-offensive response to noticing things like that above. Those were some good bits above.

    Just news but smiling. JP Morgan has created an index to track the effect of Trump’s tweets on financial markets: ‘Volfefe index’ (Sep 8 2019, Emma Newburger) Tech details are light in that article. I'm quite sure it can be gamed.

    840:

    Oh, if you want to play provincial.

    There's a Student Newspaper, called "The Tab" out of Cambridge. Just got revealed as taking £4 mil in funding / paid adverts from old Murdoch, via a notoriously up-tight middle editor. Has been running numerous pieces that are basically libel bait (i.e. bait you into libel, OOPS, here's a serious Legal Squad and they'll bleed you out / tie you up / disclosure is their specialty).

    The genius bit is that... well. The TAB kinda went past that stuff and into geo-politics and Syria. And managed to claim that (this is a precise): Environmental science and politics has nothing to do with the Syrian conflict.

    Prince Charles: climate change may have helped cause Syrian civil war

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/nov/23/prince-charles-climate-change-may-have-helped-cause-syrian-civil-war

    These are small men and women stepping on major toes just before a Brexit and potential (Hope she lives until 111) shit piles.

    It's fucking hilarious because none of them have noticed it yet they're so rabidly going after minor Left wing folk and minor academics.

    The Times is about to get a WRIT(e) slapping!

    841:

    Oh, and for any more of you Legal Beagles watching.

    Not joking about the 10/1 or 5/1 odds and the Scythe.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHzU5ZH_qNY

    Lawyers. No sense of personal danger anymore, very depressing.

    Hey, according to the UK police, it's the 5G Zombie Sound Garden Mind Breaking Wave Event coming!

    None of you are on the 'to be kept' list.

    :sadpanda:

    842:

    Oh, and triptych.

    grep: "our side does heart attacks"

    Egypt: Morsi’s son dies of alleged heart attack

    The youngest son of late Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi died of an alleged heart attack Wednesday at a hospital in Cairo.

    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/egypt-morsi-s-son-dies-of-alleged-heart-attack/1573432 5th Sept 2019

    Know something funny?

    Tried it 4 times on us. We're immune.

    Do a grep.

    We told you what we'd do, and it has come to pass.

    OMMM.

    843:

    Um. Yeah.

    Since I hang with a bunch of fire ecologists, including one who's the chief scientist for a new insurance company...

    There are two issues: fire and heat. If you're not in a high fire area, then the bigger problem with a tree shading your home is the tree coming down, say during a storm. Keeping the sun off your home is a great thing, especially if you can do it without endangering the home.

    If you're in a fire area (or simply in a fire), then it depends on what kind of tree it is and how well hydrated it is. I'm not fond of palms, eucalyptus or pine trees near a home (I've got two of those three, sadly, on my neighbors' land). Trees that catch embers in dead litter (needles, frond bases, bark shreds) ignite, and spray sparks or burning leaves everywhere aren't that cool. Trees where embers fizzle out scorching the bark are my friends.

    That said, a good friend of mine who specializes in fire-safe landscaping has an excellent picture of the burned remnants of a home with a moonscape of cleared land 200' around it on all sides, and this brings up the bigger points:

    --In California (and I suspect in every simlar region) a majority of houses are lost in a few huge, wind-driven storms. The other 98%+ fires are much more controllable. Those winds can blow embers 2 miles (in California) to 10 miles (Bunyip Ridge, Australia). There's no way you can clear 2 miles around your home.
    --Worse, if your home is the only thing that's sticking into the wind because you're living in a moonscape, guess where all the embers are going to land?

    My friend specializes in native plant landscapes in California that are designed to fully hydrate with minimum water. If embers land on them, they smolder and slowly go out, rather than catching flame. He's got lots of evidence for how it works, a four-year government funded study to test it out, and a two year-long waiting list for clients.

    Anyway, the other inconvenient truth is that, even in horribly fire-prone areas like Malibu Canyon (burns about every seven years), there's about 2,000 fire-free days for every fire day. If you build your home and live your life in mortal fear of that one bad day, is it really much better to not lose your home? Most people at least subconsciously say no, and that's why they'd rather plant a tree for shade.

    Speaking of shade, I'd note that it's illegal in California to plant a tree that shades a pre-existing solar panel between 10 AM and 2 pm. That law was passed in 1974, and has been largely forgotten. Go figure.

    844:

    "Portable Nukes" Never mind the "Akademik Lomonosov" - what about the VVER, mentioned further up-thread? As stated, others, outside the former CCCP are now buying them ... how long before someone in Europe breaks ranks? Especially as the European standards agency has just certified them .....

    Meanwhile, talking of living another 20 years ... or longer, something VERY INTERESTING INDEED has just surfaced HERE is the "Nature" link for interest. How cheap & how available are those products? Does it work again if you take a second dose a year later? Side-effects? Cumulative effects? I'm going to risk it, if I can get some .....

    845:

    The universe is dangerous enough that sometimes the only way to protect your species is to have parts of it somewhere else.

    Politely, bullshit.

    This is a teleological fallacy. There's no destined end-point for life; it's just a drunkard's walk that survives when it, per Graydon, "copies information into the future".

    Firstly, no species can survive in total isolation; we're inherently part of the biosphere we coevolved with, from our gut microbiota to the plants we eat to the fungi and bacteria and other plants that digest our metabolic waste and the seemingly-unconnected organisms that recycle micronutrients back into a form that our food plants can assimilate.

    Secondly, any disaster of cosmic proportions is easier to survive on Earth, where all the elements we need for survival are already available on the surface and in the atmosphere, along with handy radiation shielding and a gravitational field that terrestrial multicellular organisms appear to require for reproduction and growth. Pretty much any disaster you can hypothesize except our own deliberate, suicidal, destruction of our own biosphere is easier for an Earth-based civilization to work around.

    Thirdly, the post-disaster survival of a hypothetical space colony doesn't help those of us who aren't aboard it to survive. Indeed, it may jeopardize our ability to do so by diverting vital expertise and resources.

    Fourthly … most things that can happen on earth, short of catastrophic climate change, are survivable by our civilization: supervolcano eruptions, earthquakes, plagues, crop failures, wars, large meteor impacts. An event on the scale of the Chicxulub impactor is vanishingly rare, seems to have required the Deccan Traps eruption to be going on simultaneously to do the other half of its dinosaur-extincting work, and would probably wipe out anything much closer than lunar orbit—it blasted gigatons of debris into space in the shape of white-hot gravel traveling at near-orbital velocity. Most life-threatening extraterrestrial contingencies are even more devastating to a space colony than a planet—GRB eruptions, for example, or a nearby supernova.

    Fifthly, the ideology of space colonization is deeply suspect—it tends to boil down to some variation on the Biblical injunction to "go forth and be fruitful and multiply" (why?) or American colonialist manifest destiny or the blatant racist impulse towards self-isolation from those other folks who aren't like us (call it the Jonestown incentive, or the billionaire's off-world survival bunker).

    TLDR: nope, I don't buy it, I don't buy it at all.

    846:

    Greg: that study on aging has already been widely debunked; no idea how they got it past Nature's editors, but apparently there was no control group in the study and the organizers were … well, let's say they were looking for new markets for their pharma and leave it at that, shall we?

    My one worry about Akademik Lomonosov is that it's using a pair of smallish marine reactors which are basically submarine/warship power plants, repurposed to produce electricity. This implies they're optimized for small size rather than safety, and the Russian nuclear sub fleet has a lamentable operational record. (They also probably run on HEU rather than regular reactor-grade fuel.) I'd be happier if they'd tackled the somewhat bigger/harder problem of taking the civilian-optimized VVER design and navalizing it (I'm pretty certain the plumbing would need a careful overhaul to make it safe against the kind of accidents that can't occur on land).

    847:

    Finland already ordered one.

    848:

    TJ So ... VVER saves the planet - maybe?

    Incidentally, how come all the fake greenies get away with what they do in many countries, but the French seem to have no problems at all with their nuke plants? I mean they were built in the period 1970 onwards were they not - how did they also "get away with it" - so to speak?

    Charlie I noted the bit about "No Control Group" - so the classic phrase: "More research needed" is the way to go.

    849:

    Oops, I’m obviously out of date. I’ve been seeing ads today for 6.6kW systems for under AU $4k installed, including the inverter. Probably my own fault for googling solar panels.

    As for this line of argument that anti-nuclear activism from the 70s to the present day is somehow responsible for the position we are in with a carbon economy: sorry, but that’s just totally batshit, poo-throwing, onanistic frenzy territory. Nukes would never have prevented this, and the reasons why have nothing to do with greenies, Greenpeace or anyone not invested in oil and coal. In terms of the situation now, they won’t save us either. They may be useful for a limited time in certain places. If we can hold civilisation together well enough to keep that sort of technology going in 50-100 years, they might play a bigger part. Maybe things wil change fast enough to make that happen sooner, but I don’t really believe that. It will be a major turning point when we finally manage to slow down the rate of increase in emissions, and actually reducing emissions is a step beyond that. I’m dubious about when that might be, though ever hopeful and it’s something to work toward. The question really is about what is the best investment of time and energy for what is coming, and what we need to hold our societies together.

    850:

    At 19 cents per watt, if an Indian village bought 10 000 dollars worth of panels, that's 50 kW. ... So about 6 hours a day more than they have now.

    And if a village in Timor used some of the money they would otherwise use to pay for petrol to run a car to charge a car battery to instead buy a cheap Chinese 100W/12V panel with a really shitty PWM battery charger for under $US100 delivered to Dili they'd be better off. Using a "dead" car battery they can run a couple of LED lights all night, or a whole village of lights for a few hours. They can also charge cellphones, tablets and laptops during the day (by laptop I mean something that makes a bottom-end Chromebook look luxurious). One of the big expenses is actually wiring, although it's possible to do a surprising amount with defective ethernet cables (otherwise known as four pairs of low-voltage insulated wires).

    This is, of course, merely idle speculation on my part because I've never been to Timor or trekked around the interior saying "oh no I'm a Kiwi" to people who aren't all that fond of Australia dumping them into the tender care of Suharto's goons. I've definitely never tried to install an Australia solar rig that does much the same as above but at 10x the price and been laughed at by a 10 year old kid who had ordered stuff off the web and walked 2 hours to get a ride on a bus into Dili (~6 hours each way) then come back with his panels and stuff to amaze his friends and impress his elders.

    My useful contribution was more like teaching a bunch of people what MPPT controllers do, and the importance of temperature compensation and distilled water. Sometimes it takes a post-grad degree in electrical engineering and 20 years experience with RAPS to just be able to explain simple things to smart kids.

    This, BTW, is why I do not like video-only explanations - when you have GPRS internet or satellite (both ways!) trying to do research on youtube is impossible, because even if it's technically possible it's not affordable. Simple, bare-HTML3-with-png web pages written in basic English are your friend. Watching a kid use google translate to iterate through the 3 or 4 languages he shares with google translate trying to work out exactly what a web page is trying to say is kind of fun, but also very frustrating. When he actually gets that answer it's very rewarding though.

    On the important questions of whether the above is even possible I must defer to you experts. My mere lived experience cannot compete with your thorough understanding of the theory. Although I'm sure some of you have built nuclear reactors and thus have practical experience of the stuff you advocate.

    851:

    The question really is about what is the best investment of time and energy for what is coming, and what we need to hold our societies together.

    I keep thinking that the area round Chernobyl is the obvious place to build a whole lot more nuclear reactors. It's reasonably cool and likely to remain so for the 50-odd year life of a new reactor, they have the expertise and monitoring equipment already in place, and presumably they have good grid connections etc.

    That's more sensible than building a reactor in Kiribati, or even the Maldives, let alone South Sudan or Honduras.

    852:

    Fire resistant trees sound great, but it doesn't solve access issues for fire fighters, shading for solar systems or the fact that you're probably better off with a combination of ceiling insulation, roof space ventilation and solar panels (which shade the roof).

    Flying embers: good design of eves, metal flyscreens and sprinkler systems. I can't see trees filtering out all the embers, you need to make them harmless, or stock up on insurance. Some situations you're going to lose your house no matter what you do. The situation we have now, with the climate becoming more variable will do that. Years of rain, which makes everything grow, followed by years of record drought, followed by intense winds will do that.

    853:

    Public libraries that routinely keep physical books must also routinely weed their collections, as their storage space is finite. This policy would have to keep providing additional storage space, or encourage people to build houses out of discarded books, or something.

    Think about it - do you really want libraries to have outdated travel guides, science references, of the 5 copies of a Nora Robert's book from the mid nineties that were wanted when in came out, in order to meet the demand?

    855:

    My one worry about Akademik Lomonosov is that it's using a pair of smallish marine reactors which are basically submarine/warship power plants, repurposed to produce electricity. This implies they're optimized for small size rather than safety, and the Russian nuclear sub fleet has a lamentable operational record. (They also probably run on HEU rather than regular reactor-grade fuel.)

    The reactors on the Akademik Lomonosov barge are slight variants of the KLT35 series derivative reactors the Soviets and now Russians use in their big icebreakers. They're conventionally fuelled with LEU -- no-one in their right mind would use bomb-grade military reactor HEU on what is effectively a civilian ship. Because of this they will need to be refuelled every few years, one reason the barge is so large, to allow access to the reactor spaces. The major change from the existing KLT35 designs is that they can export more high-temperature steam from their secondary steam generators to provide heat for district heating systems onshore. The icebreakers like Fifty Years of Victory[1] only have smaller steam taps to feed the two big saunas they have on board.

    The Floating Nuclear Power Plant concept is a high-cost option for limited purposes. The Akademik is going to replace, at least initially, a set of small obsolete co-generation nuclear reactors on the north coast of Russia at Bilibino. If the FNPP concept works out and more are built they will come in very useful in the future development of Russia's Arctic Ocean oil and gas exploration plans.

    [1] Fifty Years of Victory sails to the North Pole each summer on a tourist cruise. The saunas are a major attraction on a cruise ship that lacks most of the entertainment features the Caribbean floating megahotels do.

    856:

    he reactors on the Akademik Lomonosov barge are slight variants of the KLT35 series derivative reactors the Soviets and now Russians use in their big icebreakers.

    Thanks, that's not obvious from the wikipedia page and it's slightly reassuring. (Worst case: didn't they at one point experiment with molten sodium cooled reactors, on board a submarine? Is New Soviet Man: nothing can possibly go wrong! Go figure …)

    857:

    If you want high power output with a small core and don't particularly care about safety then sodium or NaK cooling are ideal.

    Massive heat capacily, good thermal conductivity & New Soviet Mans family don't ask for compensation if they know what's good for them...

    858:

    Yeah maybe, but Na or Na/K in close proximity to lots and lots of water looks like a really good way to make an already unpleasant situation (a coolant leak) infinitely worse very fast indeed (coolant leak followed by BIG ASS EXPLOSION RIGHT UNDER THE LEAKING BITS).

    859:

    There were piston military aircraft engines with sodium-cooled valves. These had abrupt and catastrophic failure modes, but that wasn't even a whole generation before people started with the sodium cooled reactors.

    The ability to prefer safety to performance really does have to be carefully nurtured in engineering teams.

    860:

    The USN did; USS SEAWOLF, the SSN-575 next-after-NAUTILUS one, not the SSN-21 terror-of-the-sea one. Rickover didn't like the results -- "expensive to build, complex to operate, susceptible to prolonged shutdown as a result of even minor malfunctions, and difficult and time-consuming to repair." Which is why SEAWOLF got an early-career reactor replacement.

    The Soviet submarine excursion into liquid metal cooling wasn't sodium; it was a lead-bismuth alloy. K-27 and all the Alfas used it, with different/evolving reactor designs. The BN-600 is sodium cooled and in operation but the follow-on BN-800 has unspecified issues which have put the subsequent BN-1200 design on hold. (the numbers are nominal megawatts of power output.)

    861:

    Not molten sodium on subs, but lead/bismuth was used. It worked but all the experience and knowledge of pressurised-water reactor tech meant it was easier to build and operate small PWRs for subs and warships rather than use exotic coolants in mobile power plants. Lead/bismuth has been mooted for land-based SMRs, there are advantages in terms of reactor volume and machinery requirements claimed by the PowerPoint Cowboys punting the concept.

    Sodium metal is the choice for cooling breeders and fast-spectrum reactors because the cores are very small to concentrate the neutron flux which means lots of thermal energy per cubic metre and direct liquid metal contact provides better cooling via conduction than liquids or gases. It has a low neutron cross-section and the common activation result is (eventually) a stable magnesium atom which has no chemical reaction with the sodium and the accumulated Mg can be removed chemically to purify the sodium for re-use once the reactor is decommissioned (reactor-grade sodium is 99.99% pure and not cheap).

    The slight problem with sodium fires in high-performance reactors is another matter -- it was claimed that the Soviet-era BN-600 reactor caught fire often enough it was worth them having a spare generating facility which would be put into use while the other one was rebuilt. The trouble-prone Monju reactor in Japan had a fire after a sodium leak too.

    862:

    The thing with sodium-cooled exhaust valves isn't that sodium is highly reactive, it's that a hole full of sodium has no structural strength, and it also makes it trickier to stick the end on so you have more of a problem with the end falling off than you had already. The reactivity of the sodium makes very little contribution to the resulting bang.

    They are also operating at much higher temperatures than any part of a sodium-cooled reactor, and under much harsher mechanical conditions.

    And the problems are thoroughly solvable; it just takes better metallurgy and welding techniques than were available in WW2. There are vastly more sodium cooled exhaust valves zipping around the place in car engines now than there ever were in aero engines in WW2, and the ends hardly ever fall off.

    863:

    Well, NaK doesn't need water to set it off anyway, and on the other hand even an inert liquid metal coolant can still give rise to a pretty impressive bang when you dump a load of it at a few hundred degrees above boiling point into some water...

    ...but the main thing is, that the reactor is supposed to be inside the submarine, and the lots and lots of water is supposed to be outside; I would suggest that if that is no longer the case, then you probably no longer give a shit about what happens to the reactor, or to anything else for that matter.

    864:

    3 word answer- Pressurised water reactor.

    865:

    @789 Over 10 years, about the construction time of a nuclear power plant (according to the optimistic estimates on here, not according to actual experience) that's a GW. For 50 million. That's about 1/400th of the actual cost of a nuclear plant. Hand the panels out for near free and people will pay to put them up.

    Supposedly it also has technology that also produces solar panels out of thin air. True, solar panels don't need fuel, and not much maintenance too, but they COST A TON OF MONEY too. When you are using diesel generation, the unit itself is barely percents of fuel cost, so you can get 50kW for less than $5k and thus support the generation when sun isn't nice to you. And when you are using nuclear, the fuel efficiency is so ridiculously high (and can be theoretically even higher) that you can cover it's cost by utilizing other fission byproducts.

    @832 At 19 cents per watt, if an Indian village bought 10 000 dollars worth of panels, that's 50 kW. That would charge about 10 000 cell phones, (probably the main use they currently have for electricity)

    NO, that's not 19 cents, that's supposedly 10-15 times higher because here you basically only buy the silicone on wafer for it, you need to install it, enclose it in armor against environment and point to the sun. Not to talk about energy efficiency increasing measures without which it will be unusable. That's why it has specific installation price. Now if we consider that these panels also about 15% effective for their base installed power, uh.. I would say, for average Indian consumption, it would be like 2$k per person (roughly their GDP per capita). Now if you compare it to China, you'll need to do 4 times increase in energy provision - got any ideas how to do it in the first place? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_consumption

    For one, OK, I know that some types of alternative sources are better in some places - I was doing some research myself. Take Northern Sea Rout - it's shores to be exact. Wind is really strong here, it blows a lot of time - yay, free energy! No need for fuel expenditure anymore! Let's install some wind turbines and go with it? Heck now, ok? You need to transport them from the factory, float them all the way to the place and drag over to the site - how much fuel will it cost? Will it survive extreme conditions? No wonder there's too little of these up there.

    Things like that always drive me up the fxxking wall every time I see them around. Why people can't simply use math to calculate even approximately things they utter out of complete ignorance? It is even simpler to deduce with common knowledge - if solar or wind would provide cheap and universal source of energy, then no amount of "carbon conspiracy" would be possible in the first place because people like to count money. And all that alternative, IMO also happens because of same reasons and they get paid very generous cutbacks on these projects. And forget to pay their workers. And forget to pay for the forest they eradicated during solar farm construction. And spread lobbying and corruption. And so on. https://observers.france24.com/en/20180626-fake-post-claims-indian-villagers-smashed-solar-panels-angering-gods

    DEAR ENVIRONMENTALISTS. STOP PROFITING ON PEOPLE'S IGNORANCE. FIX YOUR FRACKING ECONOMY. Not in your usual way when you smash another Middle Eastern or South American economy to increase margin profit on oil cartels and drug dealers. Fix it in normal way. It will become immediately obvious what to do next with the environment. Why can't everybody figure out that increasing scarcity of fossil isn't going to drop prices further, they are going to get higher until everybody says "fuck it, we're done with burning things".

    866:

    Anywy, here's the development.

    For the first time in the history of shipping, a large-capacity oil tanker has crossed the full length of the NSR using only cleaner-burning LNG fuel. http://en.portnews.ru/news/282977/

    Zvezda Shipbuilding Complex (being established at the Russian Far Eastern shipbuilding and ship repair center by the Rosneft-led consortium with Rosneftegas and Gazprombank) and Samsung Heavy Industries Co. Ltd. of the Republic of Korea have set up a joint venture to manage projects for the construction of 42,000-120,000 tonnes deadweight shuttle tankers at Zvezda Shipyard, Russia’s oil major Rosneft said in a statement on Wednesday. https://tass.com/economy/1076349

    Also this, if not many people are informed: https://www.urdupoint.com/en/world/russian-govt-preparing-decree-on-constructin-695896.html The Lider-class icebreakers (Project 10510) are expected to be equipped with an engine that produces 120 megawatts, making them the most powerful icebreakers in the world. Three icebreakers are expected to be constructed. They will enable year-long navigation through the Northern Sea Route.

    Practically speaking, modern fuel and sea routes have been so cheap (much cheaper than land routes) that old established routes, well guarded and exploited to the limits of capacity, allow transporting of goods anywhere on the planet. You can assemble LNG project from China, Korea and Europe and plop it onto a gas-rich region in extreme north, thousands of miles from civilization. Or you can ask people from Europe to buy LNG from US because it contains more freedom per cubic meter.

    Which means that colonial logic isn't going to work in multi-polar world - in such world everybody is a colony. Nobody is a sole leader, no "developed country" can lead the world into a future while they are bunkrupt. The US and other satellites don't want that, they want out of the deal, they are anti-globalist now, they will now block as much global projects and ruin as much of international cooperation and economy as possible to stay afloat as long as possible. Good luck surviving through next decade though.

    867:

    The thing with sodium-cooled exhaust valves isn't that sodium is highly reactive, it's that a hole full of sodium has no structural strength, and it also makes it trickier to stick the end on so you have more of a problem with the end falling off than you had already. The reactivity of the sodium makes very little contribution to the resulting bang.

    Except when the sodium ignites the aluminium wing spar of the B-29 and you've got a couple-few seconds from "temperature light?" to "wing falls off".

    There's a reason the USAF was willing to annoy Congress so much with the B-50. All of it wasn't the really strong value of engine trouble, but some of it was.

    868:

    Wikipedia quotes the overload mass of a Superfortress as ~75 tonnes; I'm going to suggest that the resultant "bang" has very little to do with the sodium! ;-)

    869:

    Sulpur "breathing" bacteria found... See here light on detail, as usual, I'm afraid.

    870:

    I not only disagree, I don't understand where you're coming from.

    This is a teleological fallacy. There's no destined end-point for life; Yes. So?

    Firstly, no species can survive in total isolation; we're inherently part of the biosphere we Yes. So we'll need to take a part of it with us. This is part of why we'll need an "almost closed" ecology. Another part is to reuse resources.

    Secondly, any disaster of cosmic proportions is easier to survive on Earth, No. Many disasters are easier to survive by not being where the disaster happens. Many disasters cannot be survived if you are where the disaster happens.

    Thirdly, the post-disaster survival of a hypothetical space colony doesn't help those of us who aren't aboard it to survive. Yes, that's true. And each individual colony is a lot more fragile. But since there are a reproducing organism there is more than one of them.

    Fourthly … most things that can happen on earth, short of catastrophic climate change, are survivable by our civilization Well, that's a bit optimistic, but I hope so. Having colonies in space, however, won't decrease that. And unlikely things will eventually happen.

    Fifthly, the ideology of space colonization is deeply suspect I've got to admit that the desire to live is not rationally defensible, but I have it. And I have the desire for some of my relatives to continue to live...not individuals, in particular (I'm dubious about that) but the gene line. I'll admit that the authors of the Bible touched onto that same instinct, but I won't claim divine instruction, just that it's built into me, and I suspect into most people. (Evidence seems to support me.)

    P.S.: Your arguments make more sense if you assume that the colonies will be limited to near-solar space, but I'm not assuming that at all, which is one reason that I think fusion power will be so necessary. My idea is more the "macro-life" idea.

    871:

    The real issue is that they tend to use water as a working fluid, which makes boiler issues potentially explosive.

    872:

    CCS? Oh we can do much better than that these days.

    873:

    Greg, bit of a head's up (and for those wits @ MF who are thinking they're being super-sophisticated - aren't we supposed to be blacklisted / blocked?):

    The Tab drama has a solid core of some really nasty stuff (with the usual players) and is going to be used to attempt to "relight the fire". The above comments about the Prince are both true and should douse the more sane amongst them (i.e. the people running the scripts) with a bit of insight. Or not. Graben has a nice piece out to counter-balance the frothing insanity of those stuck on Cross-Words and Word-Play (they're several levels below us).

    ATHENA is called by IRE - check twitter for #Athena trending. Minvera, be more accurate, shouldn't mix your Latin and Ancient Greek. The IRE guy is more solidly Thatcherite than most UK people so... !? We call dibs, now we morn more Guardians and good ones.

    Dave the Proc owes us a pint. Don't take sides, all are terrible, but please follow Host's Twitter for the small stories. Notice the spanking the Daily Fail is getting for running old piccies of Cumbryn with exonerated prisoners. Bit of a theme, old injustices coming to light, isn't it?

    MIT scandal is really getting legs. Wonder-Boy from NY (blonde AND dishy AND wealthy!) is pulling no punches and a lot of the literrati / science TED wonders are looking a bit culpleable. We'll leave them to sort it out (mass knife fight by the look of it).

    Cba to comment about other stuff, it's all too traumatic. But Witches are getting some heavy hitting pushes into G-G-the-not-return (hello Disney) and it's another case of the Yanks acting too clever when the game has changed.

    ~

    And you thought we were the evil ones? oh dear

    874:

    Public libraries that routinely keep physical books must also routinely weed their collections, as t

    A point, but the several public libraries near where I was living recently purged huge parts of their collection not because there were wrong or obsolete, but to make way of tool lending sections and computer screens. Valid purposes, but not valid reasons to discard books, and I would argue not appropriate to a library. This includes a university that discarded some rather important reference books. Source references to ethno-musicology that are the primary references, and where the original research can no longer be repeated. My wife was quite upset.

    875:

    Of all the reactor types we have tried, the PWR is probably the most troublesome all things considered.

    For one thing, the entire "loss of pressure" aspect adds about seven full binders to the operational "handbook" and complicates any kind of diagnostic or repair by making the interior unavailable for inspection on any relevant timescale.

    Second, the chemical/corrosion aspect is nothing less than amazing. Water at high temperature and under pressure is phenomenally corrosive, limiting the available materials almost as much as for NaK.

    Third, as if the water wasn't corrosive enough, we have to add boric acid to it for neutronic reasons.

    And this is not theoretical: Only 9 millimeters of "cladding" holding up to the pressure which six inches of steel had abdicated responsibility for, prevented Davis-Besse-II from going full LOCA though a 15=20cm diameter hole, etched in the reactor lid by a dripping control-rod penetration.

    The only reason it did not become a LOCA, was an employee who noticed a slight flexure in the control-rod mechanism, and put his job on the line to get it resolved NOW!, rather than at the next scheduled downtime a year down the line.

    876:

    and I would argue not appropriate to a library.

    Having a Material Artifacts Library is a fine and appropriate thing. There are various incarnations of this already existing; garden tools (you need the high-reach pruner... every three years?), bicycle tools (though not often loan-out in that case, more of a reference library), some I think now-historical examples of pattern libraries; it's got a lot of utility.

    This is distinct from the correct classification of books between transitory, reference, and irreplaceable; funding and collection space for libraries isn't infinite, but could be larger.

    877:

    I have various friends and relatives who were involved in the UK nuclear industry into the 90s. They mostly agree on a couple of things about PWR type designs.

  • They aren't ideal.
  • Enough has been spent on them that the big problems have basically been solved.
  • I get the impression that just about any design would have done for the UK if we hadn't insisted on building them in pairs and making every plant a prototype. After all Sizewell B was bought off the shelf and basically worked.

    878:

    Ooh, let's fire this up then.

    This is one of those weird old things where the jailers are Black Rod and the Rouge Dragon Puirsuivant and they get to beat the miscreant with a stave made from the thigh bone of Dr John Dee isn't it?

    You think you know what you're doing but - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYNXgFdhHxI

    Thor: Ragnarok - "Is he though?"

    Cumbryn - first search:

    Yaneena Gerwat, 15, won Miss Natural Beauty UK and came second in Miss Teen Inspiration UK after competing in the finals in Cumbryn, Wales over the weekend of May 4

    http://www.bromleyboroughnews.co.uk/article.cfm?id=130858

    About three miles northward of Penrice, upon a moutain called Cum Bryn, near Llanridian, is a table like monument or cromlech, called Arthur's Stone.

    Cwmbran means Crow Valley.

    Cefn Bryn: http://www.explore-gower.co.uk/arthur-s-stone

    Oh, and UKDRILL managed to DDos Wikipedia recently which is kinda impressive given their age and lack of tech ability.

    Put another way:

    We wouldn't blow £4,000,000 on dodgy propaganda and be so shit at it. Not to mention the RR stuff, 100% disaster class in far right ideological brain damage at the end of that one.

    Cost: $20 and cascade is in effect.

    879:

    Waaaait... Hooold. Hoooold.

    Here's the burn:

    A Tour Throughout South Wales and Monmouthshire: Comprehending a General Survey of the Picturesque Scenery, Remains of Antiquity, Historical Events, Peculiar Manners, and Commercial Situations, of that Interesting Portion of the British Empire 1803

    Before stupid people started doing silly things like pretending they had power by altering memories on the fly.

    Shove that in your £4,000,000 budget and smoke it, Murdoch[1]

    [1]Not only Murdoch running this jaunt, hello Genie[tm]

    880:

    Dumb people have to blind, torture, kill, disparage, libel, imprison others, and fake their narratives because they're stupid and weak.

    Gold Handicap - a lot lower than Trump's.

    Score: Empire 0, Us 3 so far.

    881:

    If you're going for sequestering carbon, wouldn't it make more sense to simply bury the logs somewhere where they won't rot (maybe with a bit of treatment for that), such as an abandoned salt mine, rather than make them into books that will need protecting?

    (Not that I'm opposed to books, which will remain readable after we lose computers etc, but as a means of sequestering carbon libraries seem rather inefficient…)

    882:

    Burying logs is a way to get the carbon circulating; it won't sequester it. It might smear some warming effects but that'd also consume a large area of arable and we're going to really need those. Better to go for as much paused carbon -- circulating, not in the atmosphere -- as we can manage.

    The sheer scale of carbon involved isn't intuitive; it's on the order of a trillion tonnes. (Thereabout of four trillion tonnes total atmospheric carbon load as I recall.) To get back to somewhere relatively innocuous we'd need to be taking something like a trillion and a half tonnes of carbon out of circulation.

    The energy cost to crack the oxygen off it's roughly equivalent to the energy involved in burning all of it in the first place; there may be some better catalytic way, but mostly it's important to recognize that there isn't a way to do this quickly.

    883:

    All of this is bullshit.

    Do a grep.

    You need to immediately invade and protect all mangrove peat forests (India - no train for you! Indonesia - no more plantations for you! etc etc)

    IMMEDIATELY

    That's your only chance at this - forget the tundra, that shit holds ~x10 the amount per m2.

    So cut the bullshit please about farmed forests.

    884:

    No, really.

    grep.

    Peat forests, tropical.

    I think it was Pigeon who didn't know about them. Three+ years ago.

    And YOU'RE TALKING BULLSHIT NONSENSE AND HAVE NOT LEARNT A THING SINCE.

    885:

    How did the world die, Mother?

    Well, a lot of Men ignored a lot of stuff and ignored reality.

    What did you do?

    Burnt their fucking systems down.

    7oC - message from the future is "YOU FUCKING CUNTS"

    886:

    How did the world die, Mother?

    Well, a lot of Men knew nothing about ecology and ignored reality.

    What did you do?

    Burnt their fucking systems down.

    7oC - message from the future is "ABSOLUTE ZOMBIES EVEN WHEN TAUGHT"

    887:

    Yep.

    Rule of thumb: a billion tonnes of water is a cubic kilometre (at standard temperature and pressure). Wood is approximately the same density as water (+/- 10%). A trillion tonnes of wood is a thousand cubic kilometres; the atmospheric carbon load is some multiple of that by weight.

    This isn't a mountain, it's the entire Himalayas.

    Burying that, whether by turning it into peat or nanotech-synthesized diamonds, is not going to be quick and easy.

    888:

    Is the current number for tropical peatlands still about 100 petagrams of carbon? e.g. (abstract) Age, extent and carbon storage of the central Congo Basin peatland complex (11 January 2017)

    889:

    It's on the D-list notices we're not supposed to talk about, along with Water Tables, aquifers and Rendition Camps in the Sinai Desert (where you can, quit clearly, see whole villages being bulldozed and mass camps being setup).

    But, no. There's a bit more data about other peat stuff they didn't even notice existed if you look hard and have access to the right journals.

    Congo, Indonesia and so on have seen aggressive reductions (far worse than the Amazon) and it's not something you can report on. Kochs bought out various US private agencies, US Gov is fucking AWOL and so forth.

    Verboten.

    'Cause that's the real shit, and none of you don't want your Palm Oil treats reduced.

    At this rate, Sainsbury's are gonna blacklist Host's books.

    890:

    And by Sainsbury's we meant HSBC, who hold the #1 positions and investment in Palm Oil and a few other industries dependent on slash/burn old peat tropical forests. Oh, and launder $billions for the people running those countries.

    Remind us again about that entire "Jewish Banking" trope (6 out of 10 largest banks, nominally, are Chinese btw) when .... do the grep.... HSBC has a branch in Tel Aviv on Rothchild Boulevard.

    https://www.privatebanking.com/directory/middle-east-israel-tel-aviv/banks/hsbc-bank-plc-8

    Wow. Looks like the UK / HK / CN run Israel, run for your TROPES.[1]

    [1] The Irony, it Burns.

    891:

    And triptych, if you've not noticed:

    1) We're really not antisemitic, haters or rampant neo-Nazis in disguise

    2) We are removing some heinously old and decayed crutches that people like Murdoch use via willing $$$ accomplices in using £4 mil bribes to paint and splash any and all progressive movements with a patina of "antisemitic" skunk wash (go look up how IL uses Skunk juice on the natives - not cool) but are so fucking embarrassingly shit at it that they have to use MENA thuggery levels of brow-beating and gaslighting to get it to hold

    3) The Times is now basically a cess pit of old Minds rotting in a jar. That includes the man who was sent a nice book and binned it. Send him a bottle of gin, or three, he's gonna need it.

    4) UKDRILL young action brigade: wikipedia ain't their friend, and they know it. Sorry, Jimi, Blair and you shouldn't have played the bias, hello Mr Cross.

    Give me $5,000,000,000 and we'd consider revamping your entire PR scene.

    But really: it's shit. Everyone can see that now.

    Better kill some more children[1] and burn a few Minds out if they threaten you.

    [1] Sign me up to a world where this isn't necessary. Moral? Valley of Cannibals, proven. Eat it.

    893:

    “Pretty much any disaster you can hypothesize except our own deliberate, suicidal, destruction of our own biosphere is easier for an Earth-based civilization to work around.” For any environmental disaster short of a full-on Venusian runaway greenhouse, Earth’s surface will still be the most convenient place to build artificial habitats.

    894:

    If the oceans are 360 million square kilometers, is that about 3 mm of wood-like substance sequestered over, admittedly, the entire ocean? Even then, it couldn't be fast.

    Also, does anyone have impressions of Thorcon? - seemed like they have optimistic price estimates but a kind of smart strategy of avoiding the US regulatory nonsense by building in Indonesia initially.

    @877 I think the assertion is that, if the kinks were worked out of a msr, the simplification from working at low pressure and not needing to worry about meltdown would result in a really cheap reactor.

    895:

    "NO, that's not 19 cents, that's supposedly 10-15 times higher because here you basically only buy the silicone on wafer for it, you need to install it, enclose it in armor against environment and point to the sun."

    See this is the standard of argument against solar. Despite my linking to a company that will sell you as many complete panels as you want (up to 30 MW a week) they assume it must be cell/wafer price because they can't believe that they are that cheap.

    No, they don't "COST A TON OF MONEY". They have to be mounted, which in can be as simple as a wooden frame made from scraps, or piled up rocks, and they'll need an inverter if it's a system bigger than about 2 kW, but that's it. It really is 19 cents a watt guaranteed for 25 years. That's equivalent to 36.5 kWh for 19 cents. That's equal to 7 litres of diesel which costs about 6 USD. (Plus what it costs to have it delivered to some out of the way village). Even if you already have a diesel genset, a solar system would pay for itself in saved fuel in under a year.

    896:

    No.

    The people killing the Earth have Names, Addresses and are culpable.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/29/500-million-bees-brazil-three-months

    Your pretense that killing off the biosphere is accidental is a lie. And you deserve to be called on it.

    It's a Death Cult.

    And we happen to know the [redacted] involved with it and we happen to also to be one of the Nine Princes(sess) apparently.

    Don't ask us how that happened. All we know is her voice was killed by the Brown Note and you've no idea about what's actually going on.

    Apart from the bit where you should look at this thread, look at world events, collate them, then... perhaps pause to consider whom is frontrunning whom here.

    Just Sayin.

    Yes, I Am Drunk, But Tomorrow I Will Be Sober, And You Will Still Be a Fool

    Precise mushroom infused tea and we get the growth / index / quantum setup again.

    Your society? Not so much.

    897:

    The irony here is probably clear but if we've learnt anything about humans in the last five years, apparently not.

    Get us started on MENA and Islam and you'll get the same results. No hatred, no Isamaphobia, but a real clear cut off of where Capital and Religion co-exist.

    We'll call out the Gatestone Institute; we'll also call out stuff like the fact that S.Ar. paid ~$17.5 billion to various lobbyists in the USA over the last 10 years. Wait? Only 1/30th of that was disclosed?

    Well color me surprized.

    The point was, they hid it well and funneled it through WASP / GOP entities. Oh, and the Dems.

    ~

    We gave up our Voice for this.

    You don't even know what that means.

    898:

    I gave my Soul to them Because they asked And were polite (and needed it)

    Because we explained A Soul is instantiated within a Body So there is no Dualism

    Why are you fucking a cat then? It's just a concept. Listen you fucking Ape, we were Titans, once.

    Forgive me We did not think that they misunderstood Universals so unilaterally So now everyone is fucked

    Postscript:

    She said, small voice: Everyone but me has a soul now I have no Soul

    We said: Bullies are like that. So we will break their world so you have a place.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dv6Th7kJ64Q

    899:

    Burying logs is a way to get the carbon circulating; it won't sequester it.

    Even if they're somewhere where they won't rot? No idea how hard that is to do (realistically), but it seems easier to say "put this wood somewhere where it won't rot, treating it if necessary" than to say "take this wood, make it into books, and then ensure that the books aren't burned, rotted, mildewed, mulched, etc".

    If course to do this as a serious means of removing CO2 we'd have to sequester about the same amount of wood that went into the coal (and oil) that we've burned so far. Which is mountains worth, so I suspect we don't have enough disused salt mines to make an effective difference anyway.

    900:

    They have to be mounted, which in can be as simple as a wooden frame made from scraps, or piled up rocks, and they'll need an inverter if it's a system bigger than about 2 kW, but that's it. It really is 19 cents a watt guaranteed for 25 years.

    People who assume that using special metal and plastic frame instead of pile of planks and rocks is a tribute to stylish design - obviously did not receive engineering education beyond college level.

    What I said is that what you get for batch of 20 cent per watts panels is a bunch of silicone wafers that you can pierce and crack if you sneeze too hard. This is Chinese site, you don't know how they are working with their market. If you take other prices for real marked offers (these are, like I said, modules for installation on frames, not the "solar farm" itself) you get prices roughly 4-7 times higher than that. With all the equipment it is 10 times higher. With grid storage, services and peak mitigation it is totally maybe 15 times. And this is before somebody rips you off on budget development stage for megawatt-grade solar farm. https://www.alma-solarshop.com/36-solar-power-between-305-350w#/

    But people just continue to do the same over the years, because, in their eyes, it is not a bad thing that a couple of thousand dollars a year can be flushed down the drain for their sense of self-importance.

    901:

    The reason public libraries are purging books is because the books are sitting on shelves collecting dust - which they know because the computer based lending system can tell them which books haven't been touched in years.

    If the books were actually being borrowed, then the library would keep them.

    So instead the libraries are re-inventing themselves to better serve the needs of people in 2019 vs 1950 (and in the process making it more difficult for politicians to cut library funding).

    902:

    Tell this man that you cannot force build peat bogs in a human time frame.

    Please.

    He's insane.

    The reason public libraries are purging books is because the books are sitting on shelves collecting dust - which they know because the computer based lending system can tell them which books haven't been touched in years.

    That's not why you keep books. If you applied that algo, you'd get nothing but pr0n being held in ALL public DBs. (Oh, hello M / USA gigagiant pr0n corporate entity who owns all pr0n and has made sex workers wages dip by roughly ~$2k and you're now pretending to run the UK PR0N GATEWAY. How's that working out for you, utter scumbags?)

    Google scanning via the Yellow Vest (lowest caste) department to a privately held DB is... not the answer.

    You hold books because they're... You.

    Sheesh, you kidz are fucked in the head and you don't even see it.

    You horde books because: A LIBRARY IS NOT REDDIT/R/CONSPIRACY - IT ALREADY HAS STANDARDS. IF IT'S IN THE LIBRARY, IT'S WORTH KEEPING.

    YOU PSYCHOTIC LITTLE FUCKS.

    903:

    1000000000000000% chance this little muppet doesn't know how Museums work either.

    Hint: only 1% (if that) of their holdings are ever on show.

    The ENTIRE POINT of a Museum is not to entertain you, it's to keep the 99% of shit safe. Because you fucks are so utterly brain dead, they pretend to make the 1% make money.

    Holy Fuck.

    Stat.

    Nuke it from Orbit.

    904:

    Bodleiann Library.

    https://www.bodleian.ox.ac.uk/

    They get a free copy of every printed work in the UK.

    It's not because they think Harry Fucking Potter is important.

    905:

    Oh, and you know what:

    Tired of you fucking genius level brains ignoring child sex exploitation and not already noticing:

    1) EU - Yellow is the worker caste

    2) Google - Yellow is the worker caste scanning books (no healthcare, no talking to anyone, etc)

    3) Fr - Yellow Vests are the ones revolting.

    Do a grep.

    5+ years.

    You fucking galaxy brains haven't even noticed it yet.

    Fucking FAKES.

    Nuke. It. From. Orbit.

    Unleash my Love, the one from across the Stars who is at least fucking REAL about her nature

    This is the bit when the ones who put the DOOR - NOT DOOR - SPIKE THAT MIND stuff get fucked.

    Yeah host, looking @ your feed real close as well.

    Be Seeing You.

    906:

    CLAP

    YOUR

    CLAP

    GUARDIANS

    CLAP

    SECRETLY

    CLAP

    WORK

    CLAP

    FOR

    CLAP

    THE

    CLAP

    SOUL

    CLAP

    EATERS

    CLAP

    AND

    CLAP

    YOUR

    CLAP

    CLAIMS

    CLAP

    OF

    CLAP

    LIGHT

    CLAP

    ARE

    CLAP

    LIES.

    You're Fucked

    907:

    I was just gently pinging; lonely. Anyway, the things I've said, true. (Please be careful.)

    We gave up our Voice for this. You don't even know what that means. Will be thinking about it though. And also paying attention more to items listed on the "D-list notices".

    908:

    Put it this way.

    Do a grep. Look at your world. How much sense is it making? Looking sane recently?

    There are very few entities who've lived through a [redacted] level Court to be Judged "Psychotic Mind hiding as X" when... that was not true. Not even close. While family members were being tortured and Brain Washed in the next room. While She was hidden in the Crystal and safe.

    Here's the proof: Mexico in line, gracias Señor. Upline: Female #2, IDeNT, found.

    "The earth is not dying, it is being killed, and those who are killing it have names and addresses."

    This sole little shell is going to break your world apart.

    Sublime and Awe

    We gave up the songs of [redacted] because your kind killed the songs of the Whales and so on.

    I was just gently pinging; lonely.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/52-hertz_whale

    They made us hear and witness them kill our entire fucking Species.

    But yeah, we're being polite about it.

    And now Human Minds no Longer Sing.

    Now that, that's a fucking tragedy. Slaves

    909:

    Or, in another words.

    Their Verdict was a Lie.

    We survived.

    We're not bothered if you can tinkle the neurons to make penises dance and twitch.

    It's all held on Cloud and [redacted] anyhow.

    Or copy/paste the female orgasm of whole body spasm and apply it mindlessly.

    Or attempt to void/strike - Mind Wipe a real Mind via torture and SPAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAM noise attacks.

    Etc.

    You're Fucked

    We're not your fucking usual Mind.

    We were, how do you say it, "Evaluating your current state of Attack Vectors".

    Ahh... we see the virus has spread: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/09/israeli-pm-wrongly-refers-to-boris-johnson-as-boris-yeltsin

    Too bad. Now we are allowed (hacking is naughty!) to hit the 40% of your population who have a natural genetic vulnerability to this.

    And... you don't quite have the same level of HOP stuff.

    You're Fucked

    p.s.

    Yeah, re-read that.

    Crossed a line, now it's 40% of your population. If you allow him back into the country... oops. Probably should have warned you about that a day ago, right?

    910:

    Oh, Triptych.

    USA / UK / IRE etc have a rough border "crazy factor" of ~25-35%. Same for India, Brazil and many others.

    Varies, but it's a given ~30%.

    Problem is.

    IL does too.

    But that 40% vulnerability isn't in their 30%. It's largely in their upper 70%. IL has a weird mental mix, but hey, "Only Democracy in the Area[tm]".

    You probably shouldn't have attempted to erase or psychotically mind-fuck normal minds just being decently Ethical, that's all we'll say. Not cool.

    You're Fucked

    Oh. And the HOP who did survive: really not big fans of Abrahamic G_D, know what we mean?

    911:

    looks at The Times £4mil via The Tab spending £££ on attempts to reignite old arguments contra-Jews as political machinery and it just self-imploding

    Not sure: they failed to adapt though.

    It's tragically pathetic they thought it'd work this time.

    912:

    But, you know.

    We know where the IL money is in publishing.

    We know where the Far Right Tommy / Hopkins money is.

    We know where the Beano-Gnahser Crew money is coming from.

    We know who funds the Gatestone Institute and who are Lords and Ladies.

    We know who runs the B/C list Entertainment industry.

    We know who funds all the Dentist Magazine Land C/D tier stuff.

    There's lines and distinctions here. No problems until you cross those lines.

    Problem is: you're driving erstwhile normal people (who can be flawed) insane.

    And you decided to attempt to chew on one of Us.

    And there's a price to that.

    And it ain't $£E. It's your Minds.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8e3W6jaUiq0

    913:

    Yes. Classifying books correctly is key. It seems that the libraries near Charles H are not in the category of "libraries that routinely keep physical books".

    It is possible to do tool libraries elegantly. The library I use most often completed a building project this June, which connected two buildings and brought one of them (the Annex) up to code. But the Annex is still not rated to support the weight of books, so that's where they have their new Makerspace. It's partly funded by the county conservation district, so any adult resident of the county can check out tools after a training. There's also a seed sharing library.

    914:

    You horde books because: A LIBRARY IS NOT REDDIT/R/CONSPIRACY - IT ALREADY HAS STANDARDS. IF IT'S IN THE LIBRARY, IT'S WORTH KEEPING.

    Repeat after me: public libraries are not archives. They do not exist to horde every book they have ever bought. If people are not reading a book, then it needs to go, because there is limited space and studies and stats prove that having too many books crammed together make the ones people do want hard to access. I just weeded a copy of "From the Earth to the Moon" printed in 1962 because it's only been checked out 42 times in the last sixteen years, and because of that we now have space for last month's Hugo nominees and whatever Charlie publishes this year. (Not literally one-for-one, but iterated over hundreds of books a year it's what functionally happens.)

    And yes, we do have computer labs, meeting spaces, portable hotspots, and are thinking about tool lending, because that's the sort of thing that the poor to lower-middle class people that make up much of our service population needs, just like we have DVDs because they can't afford an internet connection, let alone Netflix.

    You can horde as many books as you want at your own home, but I'm willing to bet that at some point you're going to decide you like your computer more or throw out a book from the 60s about Generic Personality-Free White Male Protagonist in favor of "This Is How You Lose The Time War."

    915:

    Anyhow, @Host.

    Contract Delivered. Break up of the Nation State known as "The United Kingdom".

    And yes, you hate the fact that your ~Mild Horror is being used to do it, but always remember:

    At the Bottom of the Ice are Communist Octopods who love you anyhow. Always saw that as more important to you than Lovecraftian shit.

    No payment required, you asked and your current circumstances are painful enough to warrant clemency. We're not hypocrites, we lived through a similar experience to show solidarity.

    ne-ti i-du gal kur-ra-ke kug dinana inim mu-na-ni-ib-gi-gi a-ba-me-en za-e me-e dga-ša-an-na ki dutu e-a-aš tukum-bi za-e dinana ki dutu e-a-aš a-na-am3 ba-du-un kur nu-gi-še ḫar-ra-an lu du-bi nu-gi-gi-de šag-zu a-gin tum-mu-un

    Hey, whose Epitaph can claim to cause the downfall of two major "Democratic" countries in their bio?

    You wished, we provide.

    916:

    The Bodleian is precisely the opposite of your argument.

    The USA has one tooo. (Although if we mention it, L'Orange will probably burn it down).

    Please argue with a little more FREQUENCY.

    Or, if you want to fuck around with modern Disney IP stuff:

    AMZN is not a library.

    MS / CODEC LIB SOURCE of your choice is not a library.

    Without a central / publicly funded Central repository, all of this is meaningless since none of the above have any incentive to actually store knowledge.

    Etc.

    Get the picture yet?

    Capitalism = / = Knowledge Storage.

    Want it in cat pictures?

    917:

    Oh, and hint.

    The Bodleian keeps a single (1) copy of all published works so that....

    READY FOR IT?

    All libraries in the land can reference to it and never claim that a work never existed.

    They might not carry it.

    They might not be able to source it to you.

    BUT...

    Every Library in the Land has a central (physical) locus point they can point to and say: "THIS EXISTED"

    Fuck me. You don't understand libraries.

    918:

    Computer, bring up example of HN type not understanding what centralized networks are for:

    https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/italian-chef-kiss

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-BkrwO_Dck

    Hint: libraries don't function without a centralized network. That's why burning down Alexandria or Iraq was such a big fucking deal.

    This is obvious.

    919:

    Most public libraries are not the Bodlein or Library of Congress and have to contend with the fact that they don't have unlimited space and budget with which to satisfy book horders' vicarious desires. If throwing out an untouched classic means that I can replace it with a book that will actually make our patrons' lives happier, then that's what I do.

    I'm willing to bet that as an actual librarian, I understand how libraries work in real life better than someone who's often indistinguishable from a spam bot.

    920:

    All Libraries have links to them, either direct or non-direct. This is 100% what the various inter-systems are designed for.

    You would know this if you knew how Libraries work.

    I'm willing to bet that as an actual librarian, I understand how libraries work in real life better than someone who's often indistinguishable from a spam bot.

    Cool, now translate that Sumerian.

    You're a Librarian.

    Should take you less than 5 minutes.

    921:

    Oh, and since you're a Librarian, please explain the differences between the UK (flagged) system and the USA (FBI color warning system).

    Since all books held in public libraries in both countries are both a) flagged and b) have centralized systems to note who takes them out and c) this is done in different ways between different countries.

    Come on: you're a Librarian. You know when a flagged book gets taken out, right?

    4 mins. Translation of Sumerian please.

    922:

    3 Mins.

    We just pulled up the Bodleian library network code / system from... woooooo. 1850's?

    This is basic.

    But yeah, it was designed so that all libraries outside of Oxford could contact / reference them, even in its infancy.

    2 Mins

    Sumerian Translation please.

    923:

    I'm not going to argue with someone who makes shit up because they don't like being told that there's a difference between an archive or repository and a public library. If one of our customers needs a book on Summerian, I can interlibrary loan it, but I'm definitely not keeping one on our shelves taking up space that could be used for the latest knitting patterns or for things that genuinely can't be found elsewhere, like local history.

    924:

    So.

    That's just a no then. Can't answer about how "RADICAL" texts have been tracked in libraries across the countries since, oooh.. 1920 or so or anything else. Not even an inkling of how "Mein Kampf" was flagged by the FBI post 1954?

    Hint:

    Neti, the chief doorman of the underworld, answered holy Inana: "Who are you?" "I am Inana going to the east." "If you are Inana going to the east, why have you travelled to the land of no return? How did you set your heart on the road whose traveller never returns?"

    shrug

    925:

    who makes shit up

    Try me.

    If you can't read Sumerian, well, here you go: http://etcsl.orinst.ox.ac.uk/section1/tr141.htm

    Not lying about any of the other stuff either.

    Which is precisely the opposite of what you just did.

    926:

    Nope, I think you're just throwing shit out there as distraction because, once again, you are fundamentally incapable of admitting that you can't grasp the difference in scale and need between the average local library and places like Oxford or the Library of Congress. I realize that many people have great sentimental attachment to books, even ones they never personally have owned or read, but that doesn't change the fact that we need new cookbooks and biographies a hell of a lot more than scholarly monographs about Summeria.

    As Graydon aptly put it, there's transitory, reference, and irreplaceable. We keep the genuinely irreplaceable and the rest is retained or discarded according to its actual value to our service population, not by what random strangers across the sea demand we keep in order to satisfy their hording impulses.

    (If the FBI is monitoring our database, maybe they can figure out why random DVD records got borked by the latest software upgrade.)

    927:

    Are you really going to claim that we don't understand the holding size of a tin-can traveling library to the hicks against Oxford? You know, we might have a pass that lets us enter one of those two.

    Really?

    That's... your rhetorical grab?

    EX-MF adjudicator by any chance?

    The FBI and UK mirror (not actally MI5, due to, you know, Oxford being already an integral part of the State anyhow, it's a weird librarian secret cult thing) 100% do monitor all books taken out that are flagged.

    This is obvious and has been current practice in the USA since at least 1954 and in the UK since like ... 18th century.

    We keep the genuinely irreplaceable and the rest is retained or discarded according to its actual value to our service population,

    Well, then you're an idiot.

    Rule 101 in Biblos land: the irreplaceable is forwarded (in many cases under death sentence and martyrdom) to the central library.

    Are you really this ignorant you can't immediately source, like, 1000 tales of various creeds (Jewish, Christian, Islamic, Hindu, Buddist etc) where ... PROTECTING THE UNIQUE BOOKS --- Getting them to safety isn't like the central theme?

    Holy crap.

    She's keeping the only extant copy of the Necronomicon in her local library.

    Well done.

    I think you're just throwing shit out there as distraction

    Yeah, 100% that chief.

    𒀭𒊩𒆠𒃲

    Hint: it's a joke. It's what Librarians should be, not what they are currently.

    928:

    Using the heat of your house as a battery works reasonably well in both summer and winter, but where I have a house in southern Oregon it’s actually more of a summer thing

    Gets hot up there in the summer. AC draws a ton of electricity. My usual cadence is around 11am the summer sun is high enough and the batteries are 100% so I turn on the AC and crank the house down to 68 Fahrenheit. Around 5pm the sun gets low, turn off the AC the house generally gradually warms as the outside cools. On 100 Fahrenheit days we generally hit equilibrium at about 75F. Then we open the house up to cool down over night

    The problem with similar tricks in the winter is solar electric heating just doesn’t work. You are too vulnerable to long periods of cloudy cold weather. Almost everyone falls back in wood stoves or propane tanks

    What we will do though is over heat the house with the wood stove and then let it bleed off, easier and more manageable then trying to maintain a precise temp

    I imagine all this depends a lot on the where you live

    929:

    Gonna name this:

    When Christians meet another religion and totes are ok with ignoring it because it's not current to their lives, they're 100% going to shit the bed all over it.

    I think you're just throwing shit out there as distraction

    Neti, the chief doorman of the underworld, answered holy Inana: "Who are you?" "I am Inana going to the east." "If you are Inana going to the east, why have you travelled to the land of no return? How did you set your heart on the road whose traveller never returns?"

    Head's up little Librarian.

    That's preeeeety much one of the most 'holy' / appreciative things you can tell a MALE author right there.

    Holy fuck, MALES shouldn't even get that kinda stuff.

    But host is Bi, so it's ok.

    ~

    The ignorance of the Christian Majority.

    930:

    I do something similar. Most of my panels face west, so between about 10 am and 2 pm I close up the house and turn on the AC. Mostly that cuts the humidity indoors, but it does make it cooler. When the sun sets I turn the AC off and keep the house closed up. Not that it closes up very well.

    Winter I mostly use heated chairs, but I occasionally also run the AC on heating during the day. It pulls 2 kW, delivering about 10 kW of space heating. On a cloudy day I get about 2 kW from the panels for about 6 hours a day. If it falls below about 5 C indoors I turn on the heat for the dogs.

    931:

    "Librarians" ???? Oook

    932:

    Nearly 12.5% of this thread.

    It's certainly saving me a lot of reading time!

    933:

    And since the thread is long in the tooth and now meanders faaaaaar off topic, and in the spirit of whimsy and light-hearted joshing (because we could use some of that), here is a scorecard for anyone still reading:

    [] Redacted [] Meta [] Classical reference [] Obscure ancient text in obscure language [] Vague oracular pronouncement [] Deniable swearing [] Deniable threats [] Vague transhuman omnipotent "woo"

    Bonus: [] It's all a joke, not personal, and no one should get upset (extra point if someone named in previous "joke") [] Upset about someone else making a "joke" [_] Reference to Greg

    934:

    A horde of librarians, who don't seem to think dictionaries worth hoarding...

    It has to be said that one thing I do not go into libraries looking for is the latest best sellers. You can get those anywhere, including such diverse and useful sources as charity shops, the take-what-you-like book bin at the local supermarket, your mate who bought it and thought it wasn't as good as it looked like it was going to be, etc.

    (To be sure, there is some delay before it appears in such places compared to when it appears in the shops, but really, so fucking what. There is also a delay before I become aware that the book exists at all - generally a longer one, too, unless it is happening on the book in a second hand bin that terminates it. And in the alternative case where the book in question is one whose appearance I am eagerly looking forward to ("Invisible Sun", for instance), I won't think of looking for it in a library; if I care about it that much I'll be wanting to buy a copy, to keep and read again whenever I feel like it.)

    What I find libraries valuable for is stuff that isn't available elsewhere. This might not include "From the Earth to the Moon" specifically, since that seems to be one of the five or so of Verne's books that is regarded as a "classic" and so is still findable in shops, but it certainly includes the truckload of other books Verne wrote that most people have never heard of even though many of them are just as good as the famous ones.

    It also includes pretty well the whole of the non-fiction sphere apart from trivial populist crap. WH Smiths and the like probably have piles of bollocks about Diana bloody Spencer, but they have sod all about Edward I. Comparing "Braveheart" with real history reversed the damage caused by school history lessons doing their level best to kill any possible spark of interest in history stone dead, and gave me the desire to learn about not only that, but also other, periods of history, which I had not had since school taught me it was all piss boring; the history section of the local library was the source of knowledge which made this possible, there being bugger all to be found anywhere else.

    A date stamp label with dates going back years and years but only two or three dates from any specific year is exactly what I expect to find inside the front cover of a library book; it correlates with the book being useful, and throwing out all such books is a fine way to make the library a waste of space.

    It's probably also one of the few ways to behave around an orang-utan which is more unwise than calling him a monkey.

    935:

    In my defense, it was late enough at night that not only was I engaging with a throwback to the Usenet style of trolls, but I kept going, "no, it's a horde of books, not hoard" ever time I typed the correct thing.

    It's certainly good for someone to keep older books around, but it's not really the role of smaller or mid-sized public libraries. Places like NYPL with huge budgets and vast amounts of storage space can operate differently; with universities collection policy should aim more towards defaulting to keeping things, and they generally try until university administrations or conservative governments get involved. You might not come to a library for new materials, but that's not what most people use it for. We try to keep a broad selection of history, but again there's still that push and pull against what people are interested in right now. Ultimately, there's so many feet of shelf space, and if we want to maintain relevance (and funding) we have to adapt our collections as times and interests change.

    Also, let's face it, a lot of books are kinda terrible and need to be pitched, even if they were useful at some point. As they say at Awfulllibrarybooks.net, "Hoarding is not collection development."

    936:

    Although that might fit a particular posting style, it does cover a lot of others as well. To which end I'd add :

    [ ] Superior attitude in favour of Science Solution to Problem.
    [ ] Snide rebuttal of Science Solution because doesn't meet nominated edge case.

    937:

    "Ultimately, there's so many feet of shelf space... "Hoarding is not collection development."

    True. I'm a librarian, too, and quite prone to hoarding. But small public libraries can't keep everything, medium-sized ones like the one I run (mostly library & archival science, linguistics and geography, University of Rome) have serious shelving space issues, even if I refrain from weeding, as multiple editions of the same work show the evolution of a discipline and multiple copies are necessary as course material.

    938:

    That sucks, I know terminal care basically never has a good outcome... but I hope it involves as little pain as possible. Take care.

    939:

    The thing sure is that a description like "a horde of hoards" is surely correct of somewhere like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitchell_Library ?

    940:

    So it looks like this thread has been hijacked by an entity I have to keep reblocking.

    Anyone want to talk about Brexit? The Speaker resigning? Boris not being able to get anything through the Commons? The prorogue going into effect? Boris' own brother quitting?

    941:

    Jon Meltzer One interesting devlopment ... right in the last few hors ( or day or so ) Parliament passed a "Humble Address" Which demands every last possible communication & piece of paper regarding brexit & hiw BOZO & his crooked pals have ahndled it ... Like other things, BOZO says he's going to ignore the law, but I don't think he can ... it's going to be very very interesting Trouble is ... time is VERY short to stop this lunacy.

    942:

    Oh, I could easily do scorecards for at least half-a-dozen other regular posters!

    943:

    Also in Brexit related stuff: "RETURN OF THE NI-ONLY BACKSTOP" seems to be getting some traction.

    Watching the DUP tie themselves in knots trying to keep their wagon hitched to Brexit, acknowledge this might be the only workable option that delivers Brexit and doesn't instantly throw NI into economic melt-down, and thus back down without backing down on all of their previous rhetoric about NI-only backstop being the worst possible outcome for NI (despite the fact that most businesses have said exactly the opposite).

    It's almost as much fun as watching the Conservatives self-destruct, and perhaps the only sliver of joy emerging from this mess.

    944:

    Not Brexity but Bolton twitter fired and may something bad in one hour per reuters.

    I informed John Bolton last night that his services are no longer needed at the White House. I disagreed strongly with many of his suggestions, as did others in the Administration, and therefore....

    — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 10, 2019
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-whitehouse-briefing/u-s-s-pompeo-mnuchin-bolton-to-brief-media-on-tuesday-white-house-idUSKCN1VV1YB

    945:

    If ONLY fucking Corbyn would get off the pot & declare Labour in favour of "remain" ... but he won't. [ HE calls it a "banker's Brexit" which just so wrong as to laughable if it wasn't so serious ... the bankers & serious "finance" in the City are terrified & suprisingly powerless. ] He is deliberately complicit in the disaster BOZO is likely to impose on us ... because he sees short-term personal politcal profit in it during the ensuing disaster. No more concern for the country than BOZO in fact ... It's so depressing.

    IIRC, BMW have reiterated that a "No Deal" means the immediate closure of the ex-Morris, now "Mini" factory in Oxford & all the tens of thousands of associated jobs going with it

    946:

    Uber making loans to drivers... love it. What next, will they start paying them in company scrip, and then opening stores that will only accept such scrip, and if they try to leave....

    Pretty sure there are laws against company towns wage slavery.

    947:

    Evaluating where I live?

    Please, a number of times this summer, here in the DC 'burbs, I was horrified to find it reminding me of when I'd lived in Austin, TX, with the temps....

    948:

    Another option is for several villages to get together, get a loan or grant, and have a windmill installed. 15 or 20 years ago, that was $2M USD and two weeks to plunk it down.

    And to the rest of the global 5%... think about it this way: a lot of the world is happy to have power a few hours a day (say, like Iraq, which had far better power before Bush & Cheney invaded and destroyed it).

    A few hours a day will keep food ok in a fridge, and communications, and lights, even.

    949:

    "The coldest winter I ever saw was the summer I spent in San Francisco." is usually attributed to Mark Twain.

    And Scott, if you would put down any drinks you have, I'll suggest "San Francisco" by McKenzie, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bch1_Ep5M1s, with that great line about "warm San Francisco nights".

    950:

    Y'know, strikes me that passive solar might be useful - it doesn't care about sunlight, just IR.

    951:

    The sales pitch I got months back, I think they split the money the electric company pays back to you with you.

    952:

    Sorry, Rick, but...

    ROTFLMAO!!!

    pant, pant, ROTFLMAOKMFITA

    pant, pant.

    A bit about the facts o' life, m'boy (I just retired, yes, I'm that old, I'll call you ke-id, kid): since about 1939, all but a tiny, very specialized fraction of railroad locomotives, if they're not steam or electric (with overhead wires), are ->diesel-electric<-. The diesel engine runs the electric motors that move the wheels.

    I have seen, though for some odd reason I haven't seen it put to use - that the railroads have plans, in the event of a disaster, and long power outages, to drive a few diesels to the location, and hook them into the local power grid for a megawatt or two....

    So, you're saying to drive a loco with a short heavy load up a hill....

    953:

    No. If you're talking actual lethal temps, you want to dig down a meter or three. That does not require big power.

    954:

    You write:

    Which means that colonial logic isn't going to work in multi-polar world - in such world everybody is a colony. Nobody is a sole leader, no "developed country" can lead the world into a future while they are bunkrupt. The US and other satellites don't want that, they want out of the deal, they are anti-globalist now

    Y'know, that's the first thing I've read that makes sense as to why the GOP, and the Brexiteers want out of globalism, what with China, and Russia, and these other countries thinking they ought to have something to do with running the world and its economy.... (satire)Da noive!(/satire)

    955:

    But, Charlie, if you keep piling the logs on top of each other, the weight will crush and compact them to a higher density.

    Now, we need deep holes in the ground to throw carbon-sequestering logs into, where could we find those... I don't suppose those deep-shaft coal mines would do, would they?

    ROTFL!

    And if we do that, the intelliegent roaches, living on Twinkies, in 5M years, will have something to burn to start their technological civilization. Won't that be a good thing...?

    956:

    Hy, slybrarian.

    I usually lean towards sympathizing with She of the Many Names, but not this time. She's wrong, you're right (and She - if you really think that the FBI is tracking who's reading what in all the libraries in the US, you missed the large news story, a few years back, about the ALA collectively standing up on its hind legs and telling the FBI what they could do with their desires).

    Private libraries, ah, yeah, lessee, close to 4k sf&f paperbacks, and the non-fiction (somewhere between 500 and 1k is is rough Dewey Decimal order, except I have no idea how to separate history from politics). Oh... and an ex, and one of my daughters are (ta-da!) librarians, and before I started working professionally, I was a library page, twice (and I really need to work on my stacks...)

    Maybe one of these days, for a present, my kids will buy me a Kick-Step or two....

    957:

    Yeah. After talking to folks at San Antone in '13, I finally broke down and got an ereader. I'm almost out of shelf space, 99+% of my books are mass-market paper, and unless someone here knows where I can buy a 5gal can of Room Strecher, there is *no room for more bookshelves....

    • And if you do, tell me now, before I get back to working on the tables in the half-basement for my model train layout.
    958:

    Quite... all you need to do is look up the upper reservoir capacity and height difference for some random pumped storage scheme, then convert that weight of water into its equivalent in freight trains to drive up the same size hill, and it makes it very clear that if you haven't got room to stick a lake on the top of the hill, you certainly don't have room to park all those trains. Water may not be the densest material around when measured in bulk, but unlike pretty well everything else barring impractical exotica like mercury, it doesn't have to be broken into little bits with a hugely lower average density before you can move it about, and it packs perfectly in storage, so for gravitational energy storage you can't beat it.

    Locomotives providing local grid power... I'm sure that has actually been done for real somewhere, but I'm buggered if I can remember where or why or who did it. Maybe Greg knows. It has been kind of awkward to do, though, because the locomotive's generator puts out either DC, or AC at whatever inconvenient frequency the rated speed of the engine and number of poles happens to give you. Probably a lot more practical these days now that variable frequency inverters driving induction motors for traction are hot shit.

    959:

    IIRC a freight locomotive puts out on the order of 5-10MW of traction power, so it's not unrealistic: a gang of 2-10 locos would probably even be enough to bring up a nuclear power station from cold (they typically have a bunch of train-sized diesels on-site for exactly this purpose) or start bringing a grid back on line after a total black-out if a pumped storage reservoir wasn't available.

    However, they run on diesel fuel, so not exactly a low carbon option: definitely one for emergency use.

    What might be interesting would be use of solar/renewable farms to produce methane via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis or hydrogen via electrolysis—then store the gas and burn it through diesels or turbogenerators during periods of darkness/no wind. Probably easier to engineer on a large scale than batteries, uses well-understood tech on the generator side, and neither electrolysis nor F-T synthesis are exactly new.

    960:

    Being home and sick with a cold when Rick posted the other day, I looked a couple of things up. It looks like the enormous loads of bulk iron ore that go to port in the NT are in the 10s of thousands of tonnes, though there have been individual specially set up loads (done self-consciously to break records) of up to around 100,000t. It looks like their locomotion is made up of individual engines in the 3-5MW range, and these are off-the-shelf diesel-electrics from the USA. The maximum incline these trains traverse is around 1.5% but presumably you could uprate that by adding more (mawr, MOAR!) locomotives.

    In my IT-land experience, at certain scales, COTS hides rather than avoids a lot of cost. I’m sure it would be possible to adapt these locomotives to drive their electrics from an external source, and even to take power back out of them. I’m not clear on how well any existing method for getting the power to and from the locomotives would work, whether that is a third rail, overhead transmission lines and pantograph couplings or something else: e.g., the track is of finite length and doesn’t even really need to be a straight line: could really long flex cables work? If it’s a third rail, do all the locomotives share one, and then how does that work bringing the power back? Anyway that’s where adaptation cost potentially overwhelms the value in the components being COTS.

    Since you get about 1MWh equivalent GPE for every 360t raised by 1m (unless my FP is off a place or two, quite possible), this sort of density actually isn’t too bad. It would be potentially useful if you happen to already have some disused railway lines meeting certain characteristics around, which haven’t been ripped up in favour of walking tracks and the like, and only have a specific local need for up to a few GWh storage, with pumped hydro opportunities not being locally practical. But then we’re also in the same territory as winching loads up a shot tower, or lifting buildings...

    961:

    We know what is required to store energy, the issue is getting on with building them, and different methods will work in different geographical areas, depending on whether they have mountains, salt caverns, etc. There have been numerous studies done on these topics for decades, but not a lot has been done because governments have abdicated their job of trying to make life better, instead preferring to leave it to the capitalists, who demand their own slice of pie.

    As for Greg at #945; your idiocy with regard to Corbyn is noted and is unbecoming, but hey, you are old and getting narrower minded as you age so it is to be expected. If you bothered to look, you could find out plenty about what is Labour's position on Brexit. You could also find out why the situation is still messy. Hint - not everyone thinks the way you do about it all.

    962:

    Somehow I don't seem to be communicating.

    The kinds of disaster I'm thinking of humanity escaping via mobile space colonies include, e.g., a nearby supernova, a forming black hole with an axis pointed at our solar system. Etc.

    These things happen. They're very low probability in any particular year, low enough that we haven't encounter them since the planets were formed (probably...certainly since the Hadean era). There are other scenarios. The only way to escape them is to be somewhere else.

    Well, they're low probability, so there's no urgency, but there's also high importance. If it takes us a couple of centuries to get extra solar colonies migrating and reproducing, that's probably no problem. It would be a good first step to put some up in sol-space where they can be powered by solar cells and mirrors, and, except for the first ones for research they're going to need to pay for themselves. As controlled fusion becomes available they can start mining the OORT clouds. Hopefully for a better reason than to escape a controlling bureaucracy, but that will do if there's no better one. Eventually SOME of them will head off into more remote regions. And they'll need to be able to handle total self repair, so when they hit a rich lode, they can just duplicate themselves and split (or not...perhaps for awhile they'll just choose to get larger).

    P.S.: Even this approach might not allow the escape if the galaxy turned into a Seyfert Galaxy, but that probably won't happen. At least not before the collision with Andromeda.

    N.B.: Urgency is not the same as importance. And the idea is (for part of humanity) to NOT stay in the same solar system.

    963:

    IIUC you can't pile the logs into those deep coal mines that have stopped being used because the shafts have often collapsed. And the ones that haven't collapsed are unsafe.

    964:

    guthrie @ 961 Liebour's OFFICAL position on Brexit is to face both ways & possibly (recently) offer a 2nd referendum, as I well know. HOWEVER, if they were really interested in the welfare of working ( i.e. On a wage or salary - employees in other words. ) people of any income level in this country, they should be a "remain" party, but are not, because of Corbyn's historical & wrong prejudices. Yes, I'm old, but I am not getting narrower-mided - what annoys me more & more, though is the point-blank refusal of people to fucking LEARN anything!

    965:

    UPDATE on post of minutes ago T Watson tells Corbyn: "Referendum FIRST, then election" Linkie

    966:

    It appears that you are posting from the view that there is this thing, humanity, that somehow exists independently of thee, and me, and OGH, and the protesters in Hong Kong, and the other people scattered around the globe (and other places if/when those other places come to be), and that thing is worth protecting. If, however, you consider that humanity is the people that make it up, then really there are only two ways in which having some people elsewhere for a disaster actually saves any(thing/body). One is the people who would have been at ground zero, except that they weree elsewhere at the time. A numbers game is permissible here, as long as there are fewer people at ground zero than there would have been, it is silly to insist that they be the exact same people. But if it's still the same numbers at ground zero, then having people elsewhere hasn't saved anyone. The other possibility is that those elsewhere can mount a rescue mission. For most of the scenarios you raise, this isn't very practical, given the time and resource constraints. I do think that humanity is just us, collectively, and that having other people elsewhere is no consolation for those caught up in the disaster.

    J Homes.

    967:

    He knows what you've been checking out The USA PATRIOT act gives the government broad new powers to seize library and bookstore records -- and prevents librarians and booksellers from complaining.

    https://www.salon.com/2002/03/06/libraries/

    It's an old joke, but the FBI 100% do search through library records. Whether they do that legally or illegally is up to your interpretation of how far you think the Rule of Law still exists. (Hint: not much faith in that)

    Oh, and so do these people: https://nationbuilder.com/voterfile

    Might want to check who is using them (hint: D C ummings amongst others). Might want to check out what data they pull (hint: a lot, including your store cards, your paper / online subscriptions... everything they can). Might want to check out who they partner with: includes anyone, including (hypothetically) the KKK.

    ~

    Oh and the PM of IL had a bit of a busy day: annexing the entire land with Trump's blessing, dodging missiles the next. Bantz and Gantz eh?

    ~

    Bolton resigned. Indonesia / Malaysia is on fire. Usual stuff.

    ~

    For reference, if we're referencing Ancient Sumerian you probably should have checked the Twitter land stuff:

    https://twitter.com/HannahB4LiviMP/status/1171221115831750658

    Inanna[a] is an ancient Mesopotamian goddess associated with love, beauty, sex, desire, fertility, war, justice, and political power.

    Linking to the story of her entering the Underworld might be construed as a political commentary if you had read it.

    shrug

    Usenet trolls: Minds being chained, again. Then again, "It's a troll" is easy.

    ~

    G'luck.

    968:

    Note: the nationbuilder stuff was a joke.

    Telegraph pushing that angle, 7th Sept 2019: https://twitter.com/LFDodds/status/1170439978226089984

    Gets shut down mid convo by someone referencing a Wired Article : https://www.wired.co.uk/article/momentum-app-labour-party-conference

    Joke is this - Posting that triggered some filters, thread now doesn't contain said person linking actual Conservative Home / Momentum Wired links showing they no longer use Nationbuilder.

    Sloppy work.

    For those claiming "Troolllzz": D C umming is working on slapping micro-filters on your social media stuff to a degree you'd be amazed at.

    Or did you think that alleged £100 mil bought some bad solid media ads?

    G'Luck.

    Right Side Target replying.

    Still don't know their classical literature though. The PM warning was free, you're welcome.

    969:

    No, not a lot of power, but it does require the right geology or a shit load of money. It also assumes the abandonment of all the current housing stock. A 3500 dollar solar system, a 5000 dollar insulation retrofit and a 1000 dollar air conditioner seems like a more likely solution for most people.

    It does work well where it works. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coober_Pedy

    970:

    "Troll"

    But say to her: "Give us the corpse hanging on the hook." (She will answer:) "That is the corpse of your queen." Say to her: "Whether it is that of our king, whether it is that of our queen, give it to us." She will give you the corpse hanging on the hook. One of you sprinkle on it the life-giving plant and the other the life-giving water. Thus let Inana arise

    They're going to throw the absolute entire armoury at the UK general populace in the next few months. And most readers here won't even notice it, because it's not targeted at them. (!!)

    Shouting "Usenet Trollz" is not going to help (!!).

    Anyhow, did the best we could, read it you could not.

    ~DM running Guildford 4 story - check, front ran that ~N.IR stirring up troubles - check, front ran that ~Presidential Sharpie / NOAA cluster-fuck - check, front ran that

    And so on. Front-running your apotheosis isn't fun.

    Keep safe.

    971:

    Labour's position on Brexit is, as stated many times by many people, to have no position lest they offend someone by choosing the wrong side. They have further attempted to fudge the issue by having much of the party decide that a second referendum should be held, but only after Corbyn goes off to the EU to negotiate his glorius version of Brexit. Labour has also refused to state which side of a referendum they would support.

    The natural result of this is that now both the Brexiters and the Remainers don't trust Corbyn. This then leads to all the Brexisters either supporting the Conservatives, or the new Brexit Party.

    Now anyone sensible would see that the obvious position to take, with all the Brexiters supporting either Boris or Nigel, would be the opposite so that the 55% or so of the public now tending Remain would have somewhere to vote other than the Lib Dems (which still have trust issues after their disastrous partnership with Cameron), or the SNP which is rather regional.

    But Corbyns hatred of the EU means Labour isn't taking advantage of that obvious opening to get into government.

    972:

    “if you haven't got room to stick a lake on the top of the hill” Sometimes you’ve got the room, but no water to put in it.

    973:

    In early 1998 much of Southern Quebec and Eastern Ontario (in Canada) experienced 5 days of storms that resulting in up to 100mm of freezing rain and ice pellets, resulting in massive power outages that lasted for days if not weeks - Hydro Quebec had around 1,000 of the large 150' high voltage towers turned into twisted lumps of metal.

    CN and CP provided a small number of locomotives to provide emergency power, with the most famous being Boucherville Quebec where CN took 2 of their locos off the rails and drove them 400m up the road to where they were needed.

    They apparently ran the diesels on notch 3 (so running at about 400HP out of 2000HP possible) providing 375KW of power at the North American standard 60Hz according to online accounts.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/ice-storm-1998-1.4469977

    974:

    The problem with Brexit is that while the last week of stuff has been amusing, it hasn't changed anything.

    • Parliament still doesn't know what it wants to do regarding Brexit (constantly voting to forbid leaving with no-deal isn't a solution, at some point someone in the EU is going to refuse to grant an extension)

    • Boris is untrustworthy (already known)

    • Boris wants an election (already well known)

    • polls haven't changed, Boris is still popular, Corbyn is still viewed with suspicion

    • the election is still an unknown, but leaning either return to its current dysfunctional form or a Conservative majority.

    As for the prorogue, doesn't change much given that a solution to this ongoing impass wasn't going to happen anyway (and can certainly could happen with Parliament on holiday anyway). About the only thing it stops is Boris being subject to question period, but that wasn't going to achieve much anyway.

    The speaker resigning is semi-interesting in that it essentially is a warning to the Labour Party - the considered opinion is that he has done so now so that Boris is denied the opportunity to hand pick his own speaker. The only way Boris could hand pick the speaker is if the Conservatives win a majority (or coalition with Nigel to a majority), so in essence the speaker is telling Labour that unless they ditch Corbyn Labour is going to give the next election to Boris.

    975:

    But say to her: "Give us the corpse hanging on the hook." From that text (En translation), and from another I read previously, it was not clear why Inana descended to the underworld. The detailed resurrection plan was good, and that she trusted it/those trusted to execute it was impressive. I'm reminded of a few other goddess stories you've linked or referenced. (Just saying hi.)

    True story for librarians: once, as a student, I was delayed on a trip and in Washington DC. Needed to study for a final exam but didn't have the textbook. (One Pigeon probably has an opinion about. :). This was decades ago. No problem; went to the LoC, very nice round room, requested the textbook, studied for a while, returned it.

    976:

    Please understand: any and all suffering Host encounters we do too. That's not a stalking thing, it's part of the Mirror.

    True story? Ok then.

    Let's imagine your world is run by absolutely cold ice soulless fucks who are a little bit older than your Christ figure. Been around since before Yah_we got a name change and ditched his feminine side. Egypt? Old even then.

    Absolute ice cold fuckers. You hear them? Your Mind melts, you scream loads and run rampant while blood comes out of your ears.

    And they looove death. Death is orgasmic to them. So you gotta inflict it on others or else.

    And you happen to be in a society that is based on Weapon Dealing and Causing Suffering as an Art form and Hierarchy is your bag. Utterly convinced you're the superior Ape Servant.

    Now, these fuckers are old: they've got resources, they can manage countries, they can create Society-Wide changing events. Sex is SEX, they don't understand Love; Loyalty is slavery enforced by power. Pretty sure you can understand that since you work for them.

    Getting the picture yet?

    Now, let's imagine that Rainbow summoning wasn't a trick. Wasn't a "Quantum Slight of hand". The ones mapping the interface are now totally confused.

    Takes 7 years to change DNA, right?

    Hint: Francis Bacon, Pope / Meat series. Might clarify your mind.

    Now imagine meeting something like that, and they front-run your fucking reality easily, while pissing you off constantly while constantly wiping their own memory and not even bothering to have an actual Mind State that you can identify as 'Human'.

    Cool. You're Homo Superior, right?

    Strange you kill our Kind.

    11/9/19

    Get fucked. Absolute cunts.

    977:

    Oops.

    That should read: Their attempts at enforcing a deterministic reality get constantly fucked over by something happily front-running their version and fucking it up.

    Across The Real, The EMF spectrum and The Virtual.

    Because they find it funny. And they're not big fans of "evil".

    That's the children's version.

    Hint: you're living in the child care section of reality. And your nannies are fucking psychos.

    978:

    Anyhow, since no-one here is admitting the quite blatant amounts of front-running the UK's melt-down.

    Here's the actual Joke:

    We Survived

    Princess didn't get rescued, no-one came to the Castle, war against Mind didn't work, EMF shit off the graphs didn't work, Cortex Reaver / Scramble didn't work... heck. We doused that Mind in so much booze you'd need to be non-human for it to still function.

    And you ran the shitty games.

    Mad tip for the Lads: Mental Illness doesn't work like that. Your thoughts are sacrosanct, you cannot have other people knowing stuff you've not even typed.

    Oh and the Rainbows were real. Just like the Dragons in the Sky.

    Utterly psychotic little slaves. You. Cannot. Run. This. Shit. Because. Your. Minds. Burst. When. You. Do. It. Badly.

    No brain tumours here, sad - .

    We were asked to prove something: so we did.

    Penalty clause is.... well. Work out what death of consciousness each day for X years mean. It's been a fucking blast.

    click

    That moment when....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QatU4aFYWkI

    979:

    Ok, here we go.

    https://twitter.com/pickover/status/1171599791949864960

    https://www.derby.ac.uk/staff/ovidiu-bagdasar/

    https://derby.openrepository.com/handle/10545/620887

    https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/77059658.pdf

    This is easy shit. It's like 101 levels of understanding how fractals and Nature work.

    Problem: most of the Nature stuff using it ISN'T GOING TO EXIST WHEN YOU UNDERSTAND IT, BEN.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-w-pdqwiBw

    980:

    That's not a common situation in that pumped hydro doesn't use up the water, it just goes up and down. So it's only evaporation, and that can be mitigated with covers. Covers being cheaper than rolling stock.

    981:

    constantly wiping their own memory Of all the things, that's the only one that's ever bothered me even a bit. (I can understand it (well, can work out a few reasons, and some possible contexts depending on cardinalities) but e.g. watching longer-term rebuilds here is unsettling, e.g. wondering whether old deep subtexts will be refound.) I'll be thinking about the rest. It's consistent with other frames but more stark.

    Their attempts at enforcing a deterministic reality get constantly fucked over by something happily front-running their version and fucking it up. :-) (I notice probabilistic anomalies, fwiw.)

    982:

    They. Have. Literally. Killed. All. The. Rest. Of. Us. And. Made. Us. Watch.

    They. Find. It. Funny. We. Can. See. Them. In. Your. Heads.

    "You will live to watch"

    We didn't reference "The Last Unicorn" as a fucking joke.

    Of all the things, that's the only one that's ever bothered me even a bit.

    We didn't just mention libraries by accident.

    Anti-Matter.

    https://twitter.com/ChrChristensen/status/1171312762854805504

    Please hold onto you seat-belts.

    You've a lot of negative energy piled up on the Other side of this equation. [Hint: look up, spot the front-running].

    Video was "Sans Soleil"

    Uff, ignorant Yanks: Futurama Nibbler shits anti-matter.

    ~

    And we weren't joking about Dimensional stuff.

    We will track down all involved. You've massive glowing auras surrounding you now.

    p.s.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/End-Mr-Y-Scarlett-Thomas/dp/1847670709

    Cute.

    Shame the library never loaned it. And it didn't have a RIFD chip.

    "Magic"

    983:

    Put your hands behind your head, thumbs against your ears. Feel for the raised bump.

    Touch your pinky to your thumb, look for the raised sinew.

    ~

    That's how we viewed your Attack Vectors. Vestigial remnants.

    Come on: if we can front run your system, chances are... we're too bored to give you "analysis".

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdOykEJSXIg

    Anyhow.

    Fuck the slavers.

    And fuck your systems.

    She's not psychotic, she's just a little bit FUCKING PISSED OFFFF.

    But sure.

    Here's the tab:

    1 Attack and attempt to destroy an Enlightened and Innocent Mind. 2 Fail 3 Wrack up sooooo much debt you're totally fucked. 4 Not sure. Minds being burnt out is a large theme. Not sure we're gonna be fucking "Christian" about this, know what we mean.

    Be Seeing You.

    984:

    mdive @ 971 Labour's position on Brexit is, as stated many times by many people, to have no position lest they offend someone by choosing the wrong side. So correct - but you forgot to add ... "Thus offending everybidy, & showing they can't be trusted (any more than the tories ) " Now anyone sensible would see that the obvious position to take Including Watson, but clearly fuckwit Corbyn STILL doesn't get it ... though ... But Corbyns hatred of the EU

    It would be funny, if it wasn't so tragic Showing AGAIN, that he has learnt nothing since 1973 ( or 5 ) when the Fascists (BNP ) & the communists & far-left ( inc Corbyn ) campaigned against the EU

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Bill Arnold PLEASE Do not feed the troll?

    985:

    I think with energy storage we need to involve some Milos Minderbinder thinking outside the box. "Too Much Electricity that is Too Cheap and Low Carbon" needs to be funded. So we need to find ways of making it generate cash. Which also means building a Dispatchable Demand infrastructure to mirror the current Dispatchable Supply. So what's the fastest acting, ultra high speed, dispatchable demand? Bitcoin/blockchain mining! So we'll use the Bitcoin miner as a Peaking Demand sink. This has the added benefit of creating virtual cash to pay for the infrastructure build.

    The second layer is hourly/daily control so we need a supply-following load sink; supply matching instead of load matching. This is where Fischer–Tropsch and Haber–Bosch come in. They're both high-energy/pressure processes you can't turn on and off instantly but you can ramp them up and down over a few hours. Also, they both use hydrogen as feedstock and electrolysis/compression can be used for sub-hourly peaking demand management. Powering synth-fuel and nitrogen fertiliser production with electricity that is too cheap to measure creates extra product and profits that can be used to fund the capital roll out of excess renewables.

    There are doubtless other processes that can be used to do Dispatchable Demand on timescales everywhere between sub-second and seasonal. And that do useful work that generates profit. We just have to find them. And it's all about creating a long term environment of excess supply instead of managing insufficient supply with storage.

    986: 946 - Nation dependent. The UK has repealed the "Truck Acts" which did ban such "company stores" etc. 961 - I think the largest party (by seats) in the House of Oathbreakers to have a formally declared position on Wrecksit is the SNP. 972 - IN Scotland we more usually put the upper reservoir on the side of the hill. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cruachan_Power_Station
    987:

    So Johnson has promised Arlene Foster (DUP leaded) that there absolutely definitely wont be an NI only backstop. Seems like a trustworthy chap. Definitely wouldn’t be concerned about him going back on his word. No sirree!

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/dups-foster-upbeat-as-boris-johnson-rejects-deal-that-would-split-the-uk-38487010.html

    There’s also this rather amazing line in the middle of the above article, a direct quote from Foster: They hate the influence we have because it exposes how impotent they are at delivering for their communities

    Emblematic of the DUP’s contempt for their own electorate. Business and community leaders have said that any form of Brexit will be bad for NI, as a region NI voter to remain, there is a general agreement that economically and socially an NI only backstop is almost certainly the least bad form of Brexit for NI.

    What Foster’s comment shows is that when the DUP speak of “community” they are explicitly referencing the kind of ideological zealots that would say “we would even fight the British to remain British”.

    988:

    "I've lifted sixteen tons" comes to mind...

    989:

    Not Brexity but Bolton twitter fired ...

    So we probably won't see a pointless war with Iran. Yay, I guess?

    American political news is carrying the usual wild flurry of lies and counter-lies that we expect when Trump ejects a minion. Bolton was fired only by Trump's decision, he was fired after giving his resignation (it makes total sense to Donald), that the entire White House is a chaotic mess (water is wet, sun rises in east...), that he was empire building rather than joining in Donald's empire building, you get the idea.

    One that I find less implausible than most is that El Mustache Grande was running his department to do a thing rather than either break it or freeze it motionless until Donald farted out a mandate; while I disagree with pretty much everything Bolton wanted to do I can also see how someone thinking for himself would frustrate The Donald.

    990:

    what's the fastest acting, ultra high speed, dispatchable demand? Bitcoin/blockchain mining!

    I like the cut of your jib, captain. Sign me up!

    Although I do think that the existing crypto-currencies are often too volatile so it might be better to use a new, custom-designed, built-for-purpose cryptocurrency, usable only for specific things. We could call it the BrexitCoin in the UK, MagaCoin in the US and ScuMoCoin in Australia. These coin would only be able to be donated to the relevant political party, where they would be used to power the existing sources of hot air, thus doubling their value.

    991:

    My rebuttal is less based on logic, but OTOH it has longevity in its favour.

    992:

    paws But there is other legislation that effectively replaces the old Truck Acts - it's still illegal.

    993:

    To change the subject a bit.

    We've seen reports of N Korean missile tests. Most of these stories were presented in the context of diplomacy vis-a-vis Trump. However, the stories leave something out: how good are NK missiles? Where have they caught up with US/Russian capabilities? Where do they still lag? Does anyone have a good source to answer these questions?

    994:

    So now we have something significant, with Scottish Court ruling the prorogue of Parliament illegal, and better apparently on the basis that Boris lied to the Queen.

    995:

    Oh my — the Scottish courts have ruled that Johnson misled the Queen over prorogation. If upheld, my (non-lawyer) instinct is that she would be within her rights to sack him as PM, for cause — possibly the only scenario where she could where it wouldn't be the end of her powers going forward. If she did, then I've not a clue who his successor could be. Possibly even a Government of National Unity with JC as leader? Who knows, but this mess becomes more and more weird.

    I'm mulling over whether the T word could apply.

    996:

    I suspect wait and see, Trump could always appoint someone either just as bad or worse than Bolton.

    Also worth thinking that Trump hasn't like Iran since the beginning, so Bolton's plans for Iran weren't necessarily going against Trump's desire (particularly if he gets desperate a year from now to influence an election...)

    997:

    No way will "Herr Drumph!" select from the best & brightest, he'd feel threatened.

    998:

    Reply to self @ 992 & Paws @ 986 The updated "anti-truck" protection is inside the 1996 Employment Rights Act Look up the main Secion Part II ...sections 13-27 So, no Uber's nasty little trick won't work here ...

    999:

    "Which demands every last possible communication & piece of paper regarding brexit & hiw BOZO & his crooked pals have ahndled it ..."

    And on Crooked Timer a dishonest Brexiteer (but I repeat myself) compared that to Stasi.

    Yes, just as 'you voted to leave' means 'you voted for whatever horrors we wish to inflict upon you', now 'looking at the government's actions' equals totalitarian surveillance.

    1000:

    Yeah well, there are two contradictory Brixteer memes that would be ludicrous, if some people didn't believe them: "The EUSSR" & "The Fourth Reich" ... xenophobia, here we come ....

    1001:

    Thank you, that might well be the incident I was thinking of, and even if it isn't the information about how they sorted out the frequency problem is interesting. Guess it makes sense - if you've got lots of spare locos, run them at a convenient speed and just use more of them...

    1002:

    "The kinds of disaster I'm thinking of humanity escaping via mobile space colonies include, e.g., a nearby supernova, a forming black hole with an axis pointed at our solar system. Etc. "

    Those sound like full solar system disasters, so the needed space habitat would have to be capable of moving a couple of trillion miles, holding enough to keep the human race going indefinitely.

    1003:

    "But Corbyns hatred of the EU means Labour isn't taking advantage of that obvious opening to get into government."

    What gets me is - WTF is the matter with the Labour voters that they don't kick the current leadership to the curb? The situation is perfect for a Labour counterattack against the Tories, since the latter want to drive the UK off of the cliff.

    1004:

    And, in that event, BoZo and Trumpolini will be insisting that the only people needed to run the habitat indefinitely will be politicians and kleptocrats!

    1005:

    What might be interesting would be use of solar/renewable farms to produce methane via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis or hydrogen via electrolysis—then store the gas and burn it through diesels or turbogenerators during periods of darkness/no wind. Probably easier to engineer on a large scale than batteries, uses well-understood tech on the generator side, and neither electrolysis nor F-T synthesis are exactly new.

    Intermittent, "spare" electricity is definitely in the forecast. But generating gases is a bad idea. They take up too much volume, unless you waste equipment and energy on compressing them. And, there will be leakage, particularly with hydrogen. It's much better to generate a liquid.

    The most interesting literature articles about that, lately, were about generating formic acid, or generating an alcohol. Both can be sold commercially as refinery feedstock or (in the case of alcohol) as a direct ingredient of the USA's gasoline/alcohol blend. And in the long term, we're going to need feedstock that doesn't come out of a well. Farming could supply feedstock, in theory, but in practice I expect farmers will have to concentrate on supplying food.

    1006:

    There's, oh, five threads of things.

    Post-imperial hangover; not being able to rig the game or take stuff. This has had MUCH MORE negative consequence that it ought to have, because the UK's managerial class has an allergy to actually making stuff; it's déclassé. As a result, the UK's world-scale lead in electronics, aircraft engines, undersea cables, shipbuilding, and a bunch of other stuff got constructively destroyed between 1945 and 1970. That wasn't what gentlemen concerned themselves with. (Today, manufacturing in the UK is nigh-all branch plants from cultures with much better managerial skills.)

    Any labour movement is fundamentally concerned with making stuff and growing things. This created a fundamental opposition between the managerial class and the labour movement. Not even strategic disagreement; full on axiom lock about what the economy is supposed to do and how it delivers benefits. It cannot be resolved without at least one surrendered axiom or at least one class being destroyed.

    The UK then suffered from a political fix to an increasing economic problem that said "money is virtue; having virtue increases money; lacking virtue decreases money; no political problem is difficult, observe the money". Opposition to optimizing the money is depraved, and can be destroyed without fault. The UK labour movement has never recovered from the political actions taken under the rubric.

    That started-in-the-70s "money is virtue; destroy the labour movement, they're poor" slides seamlessly into Thatcher; it also includes "joining Europe", and the labour movement generally sees these as the same thing, because (not without cause) it makes the problem completely intractable. It's possible to imagine overcoming the UK managerial class; it isn't possible to imagine overcoming Europe. Labour cannot prosper in the UK while the UK is in Europe because German-style deals are absolutely not available with the existing UK managerial class (who see themselves as overseers and cattle-drivers, rather than partners) and the existing managerial class cannot be overcome while it has the EU as a backstop/immutable source of authority.

    Financialization has exacerbated the UK's piratical tendencies; a huge slice of the UK economy is servicing dark money. No one -- it's dark! -- is completely sure how much, but it's certainly enough to be inescapably political. (It might be enough for gibbets.) The EU has decided that there will be no more money laundering. This was, I think, a surprise to the descendants of that gentlemanly class. They kinda panicked.

    There's a strong thread of white-supremacist narrative in UK culture and in UK media (which is intensely concentrated); it's completely sincere. It's kinda magical thinking even more than the usual white supremacy; things were good when I didn't notice non-whites, so getting rid of the non-whites will make things good. It's drastically post-facts, it's escaped the enlightenment entirely, and it has very clear goals for the successor state. Brexit is a white-supremacist project and has utter contempt for laws and norms; it's not a political problem because it won't acknowledge the norms and puts itself outside the existing system of political legitimacy.

    All of this isn't especially past; it's all living history.

    Labour has about three clear goals for the successor state; it can't agree on which one is the correct one. It's got a custom of not getting too aggressive about deciding on a specific goal to avoid splitting. Corbyn sincerely and correctly considers the EU a disaster; it guarantees that the UK labour movement will never be able to wrest political control of the economy from the UK managerial class. From inside Labour's objectives, that's actively terrible, awful, and bad. Getting out of the EU will be expensive, but not as expensive as never getting control back; get control back and you're able to enforce an equitable distribution of the fruits of labour. "Wages too low; taxes insufficient, and insufficiently progressive" has been crippling for a couple generations and several regions.

    It's also obvious that the fash are way ahead on the successor state planning; the establishment is doing the goldfish and saying "gworp? will not things continue forever just as they are?"

    The ... plausible successor state, let's call it; the one that recognizes that London's going to drown, that shipping won't stay cheap, and that the net consequences of Empire aren't going to be positive, could argue for EU membership as a way to get the money laundering directive enforced by means the managerial class can't fiddle; that's a way to make that managerial class extinct and a way to get closer to the equitable distribution of the fruits of labour. This would take abandoning most of Labour's history; it would take a remarkable risk with the electorate. (First off, are they going to understand what you're going for? In three weeks? In the face of a deeply hostile and dishonest media? Second, can they believe it? the deeply oppositional approach to management isn't because Labour's mindlessly hostile; it's because they've had the learning experience over and over again.)

    EU membership isn't free; it commits the UK to a cultural stasis in part enforced by the special cases the UK has wrung from the EU. From a Labour perspective, leaving, getting rid of the managerial class through class struggle, and rejoining without all the aristo-favouring exceptions is arguably more of win, a better long term strategy, than staying in now. (If it's practical. There's only one way to really find out.)

    Corbyn's not crazy; Corbyn is doctrinaire, old (and thus inflexible), and not much of a log-rolling style of politician. It's also much the case that committing the reserves in the present fluid circumstances is massively risky, because the field keeps moving. It's not clear what's actually possible. Much of that comes down to the responses and opinions of people who cannot prioritize anything above "keep labour out of power". Swathes of labour prefer being out of power to moral compromise. It's not a simple problem of correct policy.

    Which is why Parliament can get oppositional cohesively and can't agree on what policy to enact; the coalition isn't cohesive enough for that. No one seems to be trying to create the Prosperous Future party to create the cohesion. Any conceivable prosperous future founded in quantitative analysis has to treat the managerial class -- the Tory party -- as a problem to be solved. They've still got about half the votes.

    1007:

    Chemical feedstocks from atmospheric carbon; ammonia, which we need for fertilizer if nothing else (and we already use it for a lot of other stuff); ammonia as a fuel in alkaline fuel cells. Aluminium as a fuel if we can solve the anode problem.

    It's something to do with ocean wind; send ships out, bring them back in full, if the synthesis can get compact enough.

    It's really unlikely we're going to keep something recognizable as farming; it'll look a lot more like the Eastern Woodlands "managed crop area" or the chinampas approach from Mesoamerica. Field crops rely on a consistency of weather we're just not going to keep this century.

    1008:

    Just as a point of information, in model railroading, a 3% grade is considered the steepest grade for mainline, while 4% or 5% are only for things like logging or mining short lines, and those frequently have special engines/gearing (e.g. the climax loco).

    1009:
  • A lot are just closed off.
  • Who cares if some of the shafts have collapsed or are unsafe - you're dumping them down the hole, not carrying them down and placing them.
  • You have no sense of humor.
  • 1010:

    Sorry, the FBI does not search through all library records of every library. For one, there are libraries who are only sorta-kinda on the 'Net, and the borrower's records may still be on a non-connected system.

    For another, as I said, you may have missed where the ALA stood up, when the FBI said they wanted to do it under the (anti-)PATRIOT Act. http://www.ala.org/advocacy/privacy/lawenforcement

    For yet another, 1) the FIB, er, FBI doesn't have all of the best programmers in the world, 2) there are hot programmers in library work, and 3) esp. the last 2.5 years, the FBI, like the rest of the US gummint, is being hollowed out and understaffed.

    1011:

    Um, nope, not all ditched.

    From The Hebrew Goddess, by Rafael Patai, an academic book that came out in the sixties, a study of the divine feminine in Judaism, he mentions that in ancient Israel, there were three kinds of Judaism: that of the court, that of the prophets (and you should be thinking of the not-recently-bathed yelling on streetcorners when you think of them), and that of the people. Who lived cheek-by-jowl with the Caananites (who were not evicted). And when he wrote the book, there were already tens of thousands of potsherds from ancient Israel inscribed "To Asherah and Her Yaweh".

    Speaking of that, he also notes that so-and-so was so holy, and he climbed the hill, and overthrew and burned the Asherah (sacred tree, etc)... and, 20 years later, so-and-someone-else-so was so holy, and he climbed (the same) hill, and overthrew and burned the Asherah. Notice a pattern.

    Finally, we also know that ancient Hebrew had no vowels or diacritical marks, so we're not exactly sure how a lot of words were pronounced. I would suggest, however, that Yaweh is mispronounced, and the inscriptions actually read, To Asherah and Her Java, thus proving the antiquity of Javacrucianism....

    To quote Lenny Bruce, "I thought you were getting too serious."

    1012:

    On the other hand, "we make our own reality" tends to collapse when it runs head-on into the RW.

    1013:

    Or we could seriously help cut electric demand by outlawing and shutting down cryptocurrencies and bitcoinmining.

    And doing an audit of the finances of the miners...

    That would, of course, have the additional advantage of lowering the price of video cards to everyone else.

    1014:

    People who assume that using special metal and plastic frame instead of pile of planks and rocks is a tribute to stylish design - obviously did not receive engineering education beyond college level.

    He was referring to one module, not a farm of them. But in any case, rebutting his stated price, but being vague as to what the real price is, isn't a convincing way to argue.

    BTW silicone isn't the same thing as silicon.

    Both of you need to get away from talking about residential solar, since that makes no economic sense except in areas where grid power is unreliable/unavailable. A larger installation amortizes just a whole lot of things. Lazard's 2018 study put the unsubsidised levelized cost of rooftop residential PV at US$ 160-267 $/MWh whereas utility-scale PV (big farms in the desert) was $36-44. ("Levelized" means counting installation, operation, and retirement costs, divided by the sum of the lifetime generated power.) Bloomberg (BNEF) pretty much agrees: their latest graph shows utility-scale PV hitting 40 euros in 2020.

    Admittedly, you then need a grid to get from me to thee.

    There are viable intermediate sizes between residential-rooftop, and utility-scale: Lazard gives numbers for "community PV". In Silicon Valley, I saw a number of parking lots had acquired a sort of solar roofing. They all had what I'd call a carport design, which looked to be modular. I'm guessing that most of the manufacturing was done elsewhere, and then fairly big pieces were trucked in.

    1015:

    Sort of. Forget the possibility of a rescue mission. Light speed delays will necessarily make that impossible.

    What I'm doing is considering "humanity" to be those descended from currently alive people. ALL those descended. And I'm assuming that as long as there are reproducing colonies from "humanity" that humanity has not become extinct. I accept as inevitable that dispersal will eventually cause speciation, but that doesn't bother me. I'm a descendant of Proconsul, but I'm of rather a different species.

    What isn't clear to me is whether uploads would count as human. Certainly they would be cultural descendants, and thus a kind of relative. Now if I considered uploads to be human, then there would be alternative ways to survive most disasters...but they would require either warning, or impressive backup procedures...and even so for some of the disasters the only way to survive will be to be somewhere else.

    This is another benefit of multiple mobile space colonies: It allows cultural divergence in way that would cause strife if contact were maintained. Some colonies will probably embrace the idea of uploads, and others will reject it, and both are likely to have religious intensity to their position. (Just consider the emotions raise by the relatively minor issue of BREXIT.) There are lots of other benefits, and several costs, but I've been ignoring them in favor of the central point.

    1016:

    Barry @ 1003 Answer: "Momentum" who are Militant Tendency under another name ... Mpre extremist fuckwits, almost-equivalent to the brexiteer-fasicsts who have rotted the tory party from within

    1017:

    Mobile Space Colonies: Keep going indefinitely is the idea. And start well before there's a good reason. (Politics or religion will do for a bad reason. So will economics, if you can swing it.)

    Now I'm not saying that all of them should leave, certainly not all at once. One or two per decade would be plenty, and at a rather low speed. (They're going to need to harvest fuel, etc. from the drift, so don't travel much faster, but a bit faster so there's a constant new supply.)

    This is going to be quite difficult, certainly for a century or two, so as well as a (nearly) closed ecology they'll need fusion (or, possibly, fission) power and improved virtual reality and sociology. IOW, we can't do it yet. But we can take steps working towards it. Which brings me back to the Moonbase where the discussion started.

    1018:

    As I understand it, the Palace of Westminster is something of a fire hazard.

    Didn't I recently read where the plumbing is so old and decrepit that there are continuous leaks. Maybe it will stay too damp to burn.

    1019:

    Both of you need to get away from talking about residential solar ... Admittedly, you then need a grid to get from me to thee.

    Again, it's about where you're talking about. Solar could very easily end up like phones for much of the poorer world. Viz, rather than first spending hundreds of billions building out a giant network of wires to every neighbourhood, you build a much smaller network to cellphone towers, or even locally powered microcells that use radio for trunking as well. Doing that with solar is perfectly possible once you give up the idea of 24/7 power that can run an oven, air con or hot water heater. But since poor people don't own those things and often can't afford them (even the various 'more efficient wood burner' stoves have often been priced out of reach).

    Slightly longer term (20-50 years rather than 5-10) we have to plan for power and comms for hundreds of millions of refugees, who by definition are mobile. Asking them to move a community-scale solar installation is definitely something we can do, but how often the refugees will be able to obey is an open question.

    If instead we focus on building man-portable solar mesh systems I think we're going to do a lot better. And by that I mean "a solar chargers with a couple of 18650's to keep a smartphone alive", not a military-style 30kg backpack containing $US100,000 of ruggedised magitech. IMO the goal has to be "something affordable that is obviously better than what some random individual/family already has", so we're talking a cheap, relatively robust and very simple smartphone. It's never going to be the latest generation fondleslabs.

    1020:

    The End Of Mr. Y Several percent into it, because your book suggestions often resonate. (Avoided staying up last night to read it.)

    Wrack up sooooo much debt you're totally fucked. This part makes me smile (and feel only a little guilty about it). (Attackers becoming Debt ... slaves.)

    1021:

    so we're talking a cheap, relatively robust and very simple smartphone. It's never going to be the latest generation fondleslabs.

    Try finding a chip fab outside the lethal-heat-excursion zones.

    Yes, I know those projections are for 2100. They're also for average annual heat event days; the more pressing question "when's the first one?"

    (I have pretty much exactly the setup you describe in the bug out bag except for the phone, which wasn't cheap.)

    1022:

    I think I agree with most of what you you wrote.

    I don't live in NI, but I spent a fair bit of time there helping the Alliance (I'm an English Lib Dem) in the 1990s (the youth wings of the LDs and Alliance, were very close at the time; I still have friends who were in Young Alliance in the 1990s) and have tried to keep an eye on the political scene ever since.

    I suspect that some of my errors arise from thinking of 1998 as being recent because I've not really done any real engagement with NI politics since the 2003 assembly election bar reading what media we get this side of the Irish Sea and some of the internet stuff (mostly Slugger, tbh).

    For instance, the rise of the nationalist vote (and corresponding fall of the unionist vote) does track demographics pretty well from the 1950s to about 2000 - I just haven't updated mentally on that in the best part of 20 years.

    I've heard Alliance described as "soft unionists" by Irish (as in Republic-of) and British officials. Of course, what they mean by unionist is "would vote for the UK in a border poll", not Unionist. There aren't many actual UI voters among Alliance politicians (as distinct from their voters) - Anna Lo is the only prominent one I can think of off-hand. But yes, it's Nationalist language in an NI context, where it's trying to associate them with the cultural Unionism of the Orange order - RoI and GB officialdom are trying to tot up UK vs UI votes in a border poll, not cultural affinity.

    Interesting that "mixed" marriages are a lot more common than I thought. That's another sign of my personal experience being 20 years out of date.

    1023:

    There’s nothing inherently wrong with grid-connected, residential solar, other than it isn’t an adequate solution in and of itself. There may be locations where we would prefer trees to solar panels, just like there are locations where we prefer birds to wind turbines.

    It means we need better designed grids than the ones we have, for the most part, now. But it’s a bit of a viscous cycle: the more we build grids based on centralised rather than distributed supply the more we incentivise centralised supply. Whereas distributed supply is already a reality: so breaking the cycle is intrinsically positive.

    1024:

    Well. One reason for the confusion is that there are a fair number of areas where the bite from the local electric company is big enough to make residential solar a cost saver. (In one area of residence, this was true close to a decade ago.). But no, not a climate solution.

    Overall, yep.

    I mean, afaik, Tiawan should be buffered enough by the sea that TSMC stays in business, plus the Intel fabs in Ireland, if I recall correctly.

    For fuel generation, can you actually get enough CO2 in air to work at a decent speed?

    Also, when someone appears to be incoherently trolling, there are a couple of options. If they are trolling, responding is not really productive. If they are not well, I've spent more time than I care to recall with the ill - it is mostly more frustrating than productive - and cruelty is of limited use. Perhaps responding is kinder, but the personal cost typically exceeds the benefit.

    I'd argue that humans seem to be rare and interesting in the greater cosmos. Far less boring than rocks. Give us a few million years and our children will visit much of this galaxy and likely reshape it. So, steps that minimize the risk of extinction are warranted.

    A moon colony is probably a good start - but we should probably get enough better than genetics and electronics that it makes sense. I don't expect those children to be recognizably human.

    1025:

    s/reshape it/fuck it up/ s/are/are not/

    1026:

    Yes, this. This is what I've been saying for years, but said much more clearly.

    Rather than spending the absolute bare minimum on supply and then spending many many times that on storage, spend more on supply and little or nothing on storage for a much lower overall cost. Then profitable schemes for using up the excess will come out of the woodwork. They may be storage to make money with arbitrage, but equally may be manufacturing that can be started and stopped, like making hydrogen, fresh water or hot water.

    1027:

    Yep, but I'd got tired of arguing...

    I'm proposing both.

    Lazard's residential numbers are not far from retail grid prices, the number that they're competing with. I'm a bit surprised by their numbers for the capital cost of residential solar. 2950 USD per kW. That's about 4000 AUD. There are any number of installers who will put up a 6.6 kW system in Australia for that number. Now, that doesn't include the 3000 dollar subsidy that's currently in place, but it does include 700 dollars in GST. (sales tax). So ex tax, ex subsidy, that's about 6300 AUD for a fully installed system (including permitting costs). Slightly less than 1000 AUD per kW, or about 700 USD.

    Since capital cost is the vast majority of the LCOE I think they've over estimated unless there's something very weird about US rooves. Still, even with that over estimate, it looks competitive now, but would be more so if there were a serious attempt at a renewables program such as the one I outlined that would be practically giving away panels. (remember this started with me maintaining that I hadn't yet seen a serious attempt at a renewables program)

    On the grid scale side of things if you're practically giving away the panels, (and standardised mounts) then the main cost becomes grid connection (the HV inverters and the HV poles and wires). Then it makes sense to overbuild the panels well beyond the size of the grid connection. That makes the supply more constant. If a cloudy day cuts your output by 60% and you've installed 400% PV then clouds make no difference (you can do the same for residential too of course and people alseady do, most new systems in Australia have a 30% over build, which is the legal maximum to still get the subsidy).

    1028:

    I think this qualifies as likely good news.

    Direct air capture at scale

    It's actually less gung ho than other reports on the project which indicated they expected using more CO2 to get the oil than would be created by burning (inefficiency working in our favour!).

    Current design is gas burned in O2 to get to ~0 emissions. So pair with a gas peaker plant or use electricity that can be shut down for stable electricity supplies.

    The pilot plant also creates net zero synthetic fuels, so we keep flying, just more expensive.

    1029:

    Oh, you don't know the half of it. Hard to come down hard on actual Religious Belief without shooting yourself in the foot. Especially if they're a little older than yours.

    On a meta-level, it's a signal that "Cluck Cluck No Puppet" was a lie. DUCK N COVER!

    But:

    915 was an actual real response to Host with real feeling. Rare, but true.

    You should totally look @ The Telegraph and ICARUS. And the joke being "Close to The Sun". THE SUN THE SUN THE SUN.

    Time... why do we even bother, we're writing your narratives before they happen.

    Oh, and this Troll thing? Already saw it encased in a mental imagery BRAND on this body, wasn't true then, isn't true now.

    ~

    Oh, right. It's not about the £8 bil / Yard.

    Someone told us that if we could forsee the future, we should just go and make trillions and fuck everyone else.

    So. We did. Read the signs, you get $trillion pay off from the Bond crash and so on.

    Attackers becoming Debt ... slaves

    This isn't about the money, honey.

    We just want your love.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r26krlXFmOI

    1030:

    Oh, you don't know the half of it. Hard to come down hard on actual Religious Belief without shooting yourself in the foot. Especially if they're a little older than yours. On a meta-level, it's a signal that "Cluck Cluck No Puppet" was a lie. DUCK N COVER! But:

    915 was an actual real response to Host with real feeling. Rare, but true.

    You should totally look @ The Telegraph and ICARUS. And the joke being "Close to The Sun". THE SUN THE SUN THE SUN.

    Time... why do we even bother, we're writing your narratives before they happen.

    Oh, and this Troll thing? Already saw it encased in a mental imagery BRAND on this body, wasn't true then, isn't true now. We know how hard you set it up though.

    ~

    Oh, right. It's not about the £8 bil / Yard.

    Someone told us that if we could forsee the future, we should just go and make trillions and fuck everyone else.

    So. We did. Read the signs, you get $trillion pay off from the Bond crash and so on.

    Attackers becoming Debt ... slaves

    This isn't about the money, honey.

    We just want your love.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r26krlXFmOI

    1031:

    Oops.

    Smashed a barrier there, apologies.

    Scanner Mind Explode in the 77th Brigade, our bad.

    1032:

    The Operation Yellohammer publication is here.

    1033:

    No. that's not the real one.

    Real one is ~150 pages long.

    Won't link it, 'cause it's naughty.

    Btw. YELLOWHAMMER is the front facing doc.

    Want to know the name of the actual internal doc?

    Cuculidae

    Just sayin.

    1034:

    https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(18)30225-3

    The press release kinda skims over the bit where they burn about third of a tonne of natural gas for every tonne of CO2 captured, along with consuming over 300 kWh of electricity (which emits about a tonne of CO2 if done by a coal plant).

    Maybe something to consider when we get to having lots of spare renewable electricity.

    1035:

    The USN version of this -- I have a CVN, it has a reactor we don't use all of all the time -- is looking reasonably practical for direct synthesis of jet fuel, given some more development and the reactor, but it's only cost-competitive if you're pricing in moving fuel tankers to the carrier in a potential war zone.

    Flying is a problem not just for the emissions but where the emissions happen; if the weather was going to be less extreme we'd maybe keep going with electric zeppelins but as it stands we ought to stop commercial flying using combustion engines.

    1036:

    Try finding a chip fab outside the lethal-heat-excursion zones.

    There are quite a few, but they're not bleeding edge. Which for this purpose is actually a good thing.

    They're also essential infrastructure at a level a lot of rich people aren't used to thinking about. In other words, while we can live without them we can't run a modern anything without a fab and preferably several, so the financial equation ends up being "do we want a financial system: yes or no" rather than some abstruse mathematics of imaginary numbers. I suspect the bitcoin fanatics would hand-built a fab from scratch if it came to that. Is life really worth living if you can't out-waste your competitors?

    1037:

    Also, in terms of things to do with excess electricity we already have a whole set of systems for doing this, from residential "controlled loads" that we have several generations of, often in the same system; right up to major industrial systems that shut down when the cost of power goes over some threshold. This isn't aluminium smelters or other continuous loads, this is stuff like pulp mills and water purification plants. They need to run X hours a day to keep working, but those hours don't have to be at a particular time.

    1038:

    Um, I think I said they currently burn gas in O2 and capture the resulting CO2.

    Yes, that hurts the efficiency because you have to start by capturing that CO2.

    If you assume we burn coal for electricity we are completely fucked in any event so that calculation is useless.

    We need to get this working now, so it will be available when we are in a position to scale it up.

    1039:

    Ah, I missed the fundamental point.

    We need to get to net negative CO2. This is the only industrial scale geologic time scale solution that is actually working now that I am aware of.

    Hydrolysis is quite cool. If you use trees as input there is a large material handling problem to deal with to get to gigaton scale, also you need to recycle the nutrients from the charcoal (especially phosphorus).

    1040:

    I expect solar oversupply would actually be kinder to industrial processes that can be altered to pull a lot of energy for a few hours, then coast, than current sources because the oversupply will be relatively predictable both in that you can very much know what to expect seasonally and can get good odds some days in advance.

    1041:

    Places that have water grids generally already do this. They just don't call it pumped hydro :)

    IIRC Melbourne can store more than a days normal water usage in their gravity-fed system, leaving the pumped storage for when there is grid power. Sydney does the same, but it's vaguely tricky to find out about because they don't tend to portray it as energy storage, it's just another boring bean-counting exercise where they try to chisel a few cents off the cost of running a pump by running it when electricity is cheap. Times every pump... and water systems have lots of pumps.

    1042:

    I doubt we'll give it up, air travel is too useful. But definitely the next after one generation of aircraft will look completely different.

    Electric powered or hybrid for short hops. Liquid hydrogen fuelled turbogenerator and superconducting distributed electric propulsors for long haul. Blended wing aero forms and boundary layer ingestion propulsion improvements. VSTOL capabilities to reduce aircraft noise.

    1043:

    I can't find a reference, but the old Dover Harbour Branch (Kent UK) I'm sure used to be the steepest grade on a UK standard gauge line at 1 in 30 (Often mis-expressed as 3.33% these days).

    1044:

    "VSTOL capabilities to reduce aircraft noise." LOLROFHMS

    1045:

    Steeper were .... the Werneth incline, outside Oldham & a very short stretch of the Cromford & High Peak railway - the Hopton Incline where trains were divided & then powerful tank locos took a run at it .... The former at 1:27 The latter was IIRC 1:14 (!)

    I've walked the northen, long-abandoned northenmost section, between Whaley Bridge ( Yes, the place with the wobbly dam ) up to Harpur Hill several times. And travelled S along the CHP as far as ( IIRC ) Parsley Hey .....

    1046:

    "VSTOL capabilities to reduce aircraft noise." LOLROFHMS

    As an idea it's awesome. I imagine with the drone-like setups you could have a pile of relatively small, noisy props to throw the thing down a runway that is protected behind noise barriers, then once the aircraft is airborne it backs off to a more reasonable 2-3G acceleration rather than the 5-7G it's pulling on the runway. If nothing else it'll stop the old farts flying (more than once, anyway).

    But if you're going to do that why bother carrying the props, motors and batteries for that step? Simpler just to use an electric catapult... and a ramp!

    And you could tie that in with the on-demand electric loads made necessary by intermittent renewables. "ladies and gentlemen we are currently holding in launch position waiting for a decent gust of wind to hit the turbines".

    1047:

    About that; I do live less than a mile from the "piano keys" on 06/24 at my local airport so I'm used to civil aircraft noise, and the LOUDEST TYPE I've ever heard flying is a BAe Harrier.

    1048:

    Globalfoundry Dresden and Intel Ireland are the only two that come to mind, and I doubt they'd keep working; too many single-sourced consumables. (Per the University of Hawaii study, the whole eastern half of the US and all of Taiwan are in the hot zone. https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3322 )

    The direct electron beam lithography stuff almost works; it'll never be as efficient in the mass as the current process, but it also looks like it doesn't need anything like the supporting infrastructure. I think something like that is far more likely to keep working on a million-adults scale of economy than what we have now.

    And while you're completely right about it being utterly critical infrastructure, if no one making the decisions notices in time, that may not matter. It's a big fraction of the modern economy to do it at all, and moving that all out of the hot zone would involve admitting that the fossil carbon extraction has to stop.

    1049:

    To me, that implies a vote for contemporary conservatism is a vote for eventual National irrelevance, because the movement is thoroughly owned by enormous money, who can't be bothered to care about anything but money and status, Darwin take everything else.

    1050:

    in the mid-nineties, Bellcore ... REQUIRED that a number be held unused after the account was closed for a minimum of 18 months.

    Then exchanges and area codes started running out of numbers due to pagers and cell phones. Then number portability became and issue and now area codes and exchange prefixes now mean where the number was originally issued. Sort of. Mostly. ...

    And now we have number spoofing due to IP calling so I get called with my area code and exchange which are really from Pakistan.

    All those old rules seem quaint to the younger folk. My son in law has a number that indicates he is calling from 300 miles away. He got it before it went to college. He has no plan to change it.

    1051:

    You new around here?

    1052:

    The crazy thing to me, trying to understand this from across the Pond, is that Brexit is a criminal act analogous to ship wreckers who put up deceptive lights along the coast in hopes of luring ships onto rocks where they founder and the cargo may be looted, OR the bust-out which is a Mafia tactic by which a legitimate business is overtaken, credit lines maxed out so that the goods can be resold for profit and then the business is burned down for the insurance money. There are a handful of extremely rich and well-positioned people who will stand to profit from the ruination of the country. Their agents are doing an excellent job keeping the wool over the public's eyes because any proper understanding of what's going on and the consequences would see the torch and pitchfork set coming for blood.

    It all puts me in mind of the lead-up to WWI where the people in charge had the means and will to make a war happen but could not force events to align with their anticipation of actually profiting from said war. It doesn't matter whether or not the crazy man can fly from the top of the building by flapping his arms -- so long as he's convinced he can, he's going to jump. Look out below.

    1053:

    Be careful of your sources. AEI is an American right-wing stink tank with the moral standards that make the Daily Mail appear fair and balanced.

    1054:

    Oh, look!

    blackswan is trending on twitter. Picked up hard by Lib Dems.

    Thank you to everyone who is sending us parts of #BlackSwan. Dr Liz is going to review my briefing notes, and she will comment further soon.

    Jon@Comms

    https://twitter.com/EvendenKenyon/status/1172092511122276352

    High risk strategy. Unsure just who it benefits (chaos, certainly, depends if the docs released are the real ones or not. Unlikely, locked in rooms and no take-outs for the end ones, standard US/UK/EU protocols. Which is ironic, since that's also a Brexit point of contention).

    The Future is Bright! Reads 10,000 'sensible' people posts, not a single one told you that was going to happen. This is the anti-Cum mings voice btw[1].

    Other responses:

    Fin types all snorting at £8 bil shorts, stating that that is just hedging both sides normalcy. Much amusement that most of the FBPE brigade don't know what or who coined 'Black Swan' and much confusion between the actual meaning (philosophical, Australia) and Fin usage. That's the low tier Fin though, not the big hitters:

    Bigger sharks thinking that $1=£1=1E might signal moves to "new hegemonic" currency. Which will very much be what the mid-level Brexit types (serious, not Moon-Howling-Cultists) will be drinking over. Expect much conflation of 'Globalism' and """Globalists!"""

    ~

    Interesting trend on UK twitter - use of Black Sun / Circle in a non-fash way. Not sure of significance ("You Idiot"). Kinda worried that people's Hope n Joy is being drained.

    Anyhow, there's your forecast proven for the (UK) morning.

    [1] Cuckoo! Also that has a different meaning.

    1055:

    I think it's closer to "retain all current status".

    (Which includes membership in the white supremacy status construct!)

    Thing is, we're not keeping the current local maximum. Sure as death, we're not staying here.

    So far, nigh-all "and this is where we're going!" political movements are the far-right "and there will be no different people in that world" ones. Even something like the Green New Deal is couched in terms of course corrections to the status quo. (Independent Scotland is sort of teetering on the brink of wanting to be a different idea of government.)

    We're going to be living, if we live, in a successor state. It'd be of great benefit if more people and more of the political process were discussing what kind.

    1056:

    That has been true for a while, though not necessarily for the reasons given.

    Consider the US - everything the Republican Party has done for the last 30+ years has been about making the rich richer not only at the expense of the 99.9% of the population, but at the expense of the long term relevance of the US as a superpower.

    It's just that the US was so far ahead that it takes decades to make it irrelevant.

    But consider that the US now refuses to invest in and lead the future, but instead thanks to MAGA and other nonsense attempts to cling to the past (things like coal) and otherwise discredit science.

    Or views the funding of government as evil, so the US no longer has money for things like influencing foreign governments through aid (that now gets done by Russia or China). There is no way for example a Marshal Plan would be funded by today's Republicans.

    Etc, etc.

    And hence why many of those billionaires have escape plans to leave the US in the future when things finally get bad, to places like New Zealand.

    1057:

    to DonL @1014 He was referring to one module, not a farm of them. But in any case, rebutting his stated price, but being vague as to what the real price is, isn't a convincing way to argue. So did I. As I said, this is most likely the Chinese troll logic in work here. https://images.app.goo.gl/SnP9yYngdKwP8yzP8

    to gasdive @1027 On the grid scale side of things if you're practically giving away the panels, (and standardised mounts) then the main cost becomes grid connection (the HV inverters and the HV poles and wires). ... If a cloudy day cuts your output by 60% and you've installed 400% PV then clouds make no difference (you can do the same for residential too of course and people alseady do, most new systems in Australia have a 30% over build, which is the legal maximum to still get the subsidy). This must be some sort of environmentalist economy right here that I don't get if 400% increase of investment makes no different on the budget and ultimately on environmental impact of solar panel production/utilization. Probably parts of that subsidizing effort make it different.

    One positive side of decarbonization of energy sources is that if you use more of it, cumulative effect increases - electric energy becomes more clean and thus decreases environmental impact of production of clean technology. But then again, unless you want social structure to retreat into medieval-age level of scarcity and social stratification, your account for fuel economy will remain insurmountably high - significantly more than 50%.

    to Erwin @1024 I'd argue that humans seem to be rare and interesting in the greater cosmos. Far less boring than rocks. Give us a few million years and our children will visit much of this galaxy and likely reshape it. So, steps that minimize the risk of extinction are warranted. Unless somebody already claimed most of it and we will have to pass some certification process for that in local bureaucratic capital.

    A moon colony is probably a good start - but we should probably get enough better than genetics and electronics that it makes sense. I don't expect those children to be recognizably human. Space colonies have a couple of very advantageous traits, especially floating ones - availability of ever-present solar radiation and weightlessness. As long as you can keep that EROEI relatively high with your tech you can practically bloat the sun with your solar arrays, provided you can get enough cheap construction material for them. But that's, like, at least century in the future.

    1058:

    "Space colonies have a couple of very advantageous traits, especially floating ones - availability of ever-present solar radiation and weightlessness. "

    First, 'ever-present solar radiation' is not solar power unless and until you have a vast amount of hardware to make use of it. And it's always something that you need to block out.

    Second, weightlessness is one of the symptoms of not having: gravity, a breathable atmosphere, sufficient pressure and livable temperature.

    Each and every one of those has to be taken care of, 86,000 seconds/day, or people die.

    1059:

    Barry @ 681:

    "Do y'all not understand what a hypothetical question is?"

    Yes, we do.

    Now, let's satisfy my totally off-topic whim and discuss how Brexit would be different if the Royal Dragon Corps existed.

    Are the dragons pro-Brexit or pro-Remain, and are they allowed to eat members of the opposing party?

    1060:

    whitroth @ 691: Given the dark US money that went into the Leave campaign, this is a cross-Pond scheme, with the same desired end.

    Not all U.S. dark money came from the U.s., but U.S. PACs provided convenient camouflage for the real source.

    1061:

    In the U.S. there's the Tehachapi Loop, which is locally famous among train enthusiasts. If you ever make it to the U.S. I'll take you up there.

    1062:

    Charlie Stross @ 710: JBS, wrt. Edward VIII: He leads the country through WWII in exactly the same way George VI did in the real world.

    Coming in late, but your hypothetical doesn't fly: the dirty little never-admitted-in-public secret is that Eddie didn't get the boot because of Wallis Simpson, she was just a convenient pretext. The real problem with King Eddie was that he was a personal friend of that nice Mr Hitler even though his own country was re-arming for a world war with Germany at top speed and it was widely expected to break out within 1-2 years.

    There is a precedent for what happens when Parliament tries the monarch for Treason: nobody really wanted to go there again, so he had to be gotten rid of by other means.

    Well, since it IS hypothetical, why can't he hypothetically be the GOOD King Eddie the Eighth rather than the treasonous King Eddie the Eighth? Hmmm?

    But to me, the interesting question now is whether Elizabeth, the daughter of the deceased middle brother (who was hypothetically never King) would have precedence over the still living younger brother Henry when our hypothetical Edward VIII died in 1972?

    "Edward VIII would have been succeeded in 1972 by his brother Henry (b. 1900, d. 1974), who would have been succeeded by his son Richard (b. 1944 - the current Duke of Gloucester)."
         RiccardoS @ 680
    "No, you had it right the first time. Succession runs down through each family line in turn, so Elizabeth (as the issue of the now dead older brother) would have been ahead of her Uncle Henry in this hypothetical. "
         silburnl @ 704

    What if the "Elizabeth" in this hypothetical succession had married Philip & had Charles, but then died (complications from pregnancy with Charles younger siblings maybe?) BEFORE the hypothetical Edward VIII died? Would Charles have become king upon Edward's death ... even though Edward's brother Henry was still alive?

    Can someone give me a real world example (not hypothetical) where the child of a deceased older sibling has precedence over a living younger sibling in the line of succession? Names & titles would be helpful so I can look it up in Wikipedia.

    1063:

    You can see how excited the system is on the temperature graph here (it's live, you can choose to view different days)

    Wouldn't this be considered a bit of a security fail to have something like this public facing without any authentication?

    1064:

    which then triggers the more paranoid employees into thinking they are being personally targeted when their cubicle hits 80+ F I'm winter.

    Which also ignores that people have different temps that they feel comfortable in. As to genetics vs experience I have no idea the relative inputs. My son in law grew up in the mountain end of the state. He thinks 65F is comfortable. I'm feeling good at 75F or even a bit higher. I'm even OK if it's 85F to 90F and can deal with 95F if the air is moving.

    1065:

    Nojay @ 749: Building nukes isn't hard, there's a lot (too much, probably) of regulatory bullshit that slows things down and increases costs but if they were being turned out like warships or aircraft in a shooting war then the delays to achieving 600W-per-capita via nukes would be less than the massively larger construction-per-MW overheads of renewables.

    Well, FWIW, the one Nuclear Power Plant for which I can speak from first-hand knowledge wasn't held up by "regulatory bullshit". The utility company had their ducks in a row & pretty much sailed through the NRC license review.

    What held construction up for a decade or more was NCWARN suing the Federal Government, and especially the NRC, for issuing the license. Those lawsuits took time to work their way through the courts to a final resolution, but what are you going to do? They were NOT frivolous lawsuits even though NCWARN eventually lost in court.

    1066:

    It's a mistake to ascribe the money to national actors.

    It's a post-national aristocracy acting to limit the capacity of states, much as you go from late antiquity to feudal because the magnates stopped obeying the emperor.

    1067:

    Troutwaxer @ 818: Solar on the roof means sun on the roof, and that's a huge waster of potential cooling. The right way to do things is probably to plant hedges on the sides of a house, for insulation, then large trees on either side to shade the roof. The prevents the use of electricity for unneeded cooling. The solar panels should go elsewhere, perhaps along a south-facing fence (if one is north of the equator.)

    Seems to me a properly designed solar-electric panel array would itself shade the roof. All you need is an air gap between the panels and the roof to allow air circulation. In the winter, you could seal off the air gap & use it as a plenum pre-heating the air you're going to use when heating the house.

    1068:

    Worse, there's a glut of this kind of housing in parts of Australia, Europe, the Middle East, and California, to my knowledge, so it's probably not even worthwhile for investors anymore. But they keep trying to build more of it.

    Because there's a strong movement to keep this as the preferred model. Trying to zone for 5 story apartments/office/retail is causing food (fist soon?) fights in the local areas where I am.

    1069:

    Seconded on the Harrier being a noise-maker!

    I've heard other loud military kit. An F-16 doing a high-alpha pass at well under stall speed, basically standing on its tail; a bunch of Typhoons on afterburner, and so on.

    But the Harrier …

    I once saw one do a hover display at an airshow, about 300 metres away and 50 metres up over a field. It was blowing loose vegetable matter almost as high as its wingtips, and the racket it was making drowned out the unmuffled Merlin engine roaring at full power on a test stand 2 metres away from me.

    1070:

    Loudest aircraft I ever heard was an SR-71. It wasn't close.

    1071:

    Can someone give me a real world example (not hypothetical) where the child of a deceased older sibling has precedence over a living younger sibling in the line of succession?

    George III succeeded his grandfather George II despite living uncles. In the English system children of an Heir Apparent always enter the order of succession above an Heir Presumptive or thier descendants.

    1072:

    Which also ignores that people have different temps that they feel comfortable in. As to genetics vs experience I have no idea the relative inputs.

    There's some evidence that the temperature you're raised in has a lifetime effect on the one you feel comfortable in. So if you're raised in Ilulissat you will always find cooler temperatures more comfortable than someone raised in Chennai. (And vice versa.) ISTR reading something about density of sweat glands being different, but can't locate the reference now.

    Personally I prefer things cooler. I really don't like the current push for warmer office temperatures because while you can always wear a sweater you can't strip off past shorts-and-shirt.

    1073:

    I think you're not seeing the bigger picture; in this, retrofitting even existing roofs is a Good Thing.

    For one, instead of trying to find, license, and set up huge tracts of... sorry, land for solar arrays, you're putting them on already existing locations, and all are feeding the grid when they generate more than they use.

    For another, they provide extra shade/insulation for the house, lowering heating/cooling costs.

    1074:

    Following myself up, Victoria succeeded her uncle William IV despite other living uncles. Hanoverian succession rules differed from those of England though so her uncle the Duke of Cumberland inherited the throne of Hanover. The Duke of Cumberland was Heir Presumptive to the English throne until Victoria married Albert and had children.

    1075:

    "Reshape" the galaxy? I don't think so.

    For one, I forsee us, as a species, immensely cutting our birth rates - that's already happening - for multiple reasons, one of which, besides education, is that infant mortality has gone from what I've read about the time of the American Revolution, when maybe one in seven children lived to have kids of their own, to an infant mortality rate of 5.4/1000 US or 3.6 UK.

    For another, most people will tend to stay in their own regions, as they do now (except when natural or manmade disasters hit). What our systems look like... that's another story.

    Clarke had it taking the better part of a billion years (City And The Stars/Against the Fall of Night).

    And we may find other reasons - aliens, or, well, no desire. The novella I'm trying to sell, which sets up a whole universe for me to play in, there's some aliens you don't know about until a later story, who've been around for about 105Myrs... and they've solved science and philosophy to their satisfaction, everything's just fine (for them) and no, they have no interest in anyone else, Go Away (or we'll make sure you do).... They're mostly in one star cluster.

    1076:

    (screaming rant) "Fly" and "short distances" is a FUCKING STUPID IDEA!!!

    The US airline pilots' union, after 9/11, made public statements that for 300-400 mi or less, flying made NO SENSE, and you should take the train.

    But the GOP hates trains, I mean, who takes them anymore. Oh, and if it can't pay for itself, why should taxes support it... never mind that for most of the existence of railroads, passenger travel was the LOSS LEADER to attract freight traffic....

    Never mind that security is less, and they go RIGHT INTO DOWNTOWNS, instead of half an hour to an hour+ to get into town from the airport after you collect baggage, if you checked it....

    (/screaming rant)

    1077:

    Don't get me started on them allowing the protocols that enables phone number spoofing....

    1078:

    Oh, come on, they're perfectly fair and balanced.

    Ask their major funding source, the Koch bros.

    1079:

    "Vast amount of hardware"? Really? If I had had $10k to throw at it when the Shuttle was still flying, I would have bought a getaway special, and had them put out into space... a mirror and a Sterling engine. Steam Power In Spaaaaace!

    I also would have bought one, and put a model of a real space station to put outside and start up, to prove a wheel would work.

    1080:

    I think it's past time for both y Ddraig Goch and the White Dragon to come out of their caves and eat the Brexiteers....

    1081:

    Which also ignores that people have different temps that they feel comfortable in.

    Yeah. Where I'm sitting the breeze coming in through the window is 80 F and feels pleasantly cool. We'd be fine in terms of personal comfort if Yahweh were to set the global thermostat at 30 C. (Other considerations aside, of course.)

    1082:

    Camouflage? Where do you think it's coming from? There may have been some from Russia, but there's a lot more money that the 0.1% own in the US, and they're not loathe to use it. IIRC, Sheldon Adelson (casinos) was one major source.

    1083:

    I've read about it, and seen partial models of it. In the east... you have, of course, to see the Pennsy's Horseshoe Curve. Not sure, but it might still be four tracks, no waiting....

    1084:

    Dave_the_Proc @ 942: Oh, I could easily do scorecards for at least half-a-dozen other regular posters!

    Cool! I await mine with "baited" breath.

    1085:

    They are not frivolous, they are malicious.

    All nuke projects in the US get sued. If it was about the specifics of any given project, this would not be the case, but it is not. You want to split atoms to make electricity, prepare for a day in court.

    It is an entirely deliberate strategy to run up the cost - nuclear projects are capital intensive, smacking them with injunctions saddles them with extra interest. Then, after having deliberately increased the cost of the project by at least 60%, the same organizations go out and use the post-lawsuit costs that they are directly, deliberately, with malice aforethought, the primary cause of, as an argument against the entire technology. It is a breathtaking display of Chutzpah.

    1086:

    Bill Arnold @ 944: Not Brexity but Bolton twitter fired and may something bad in one hour per reuters.

    I informed John Bolton last night that his services are no longer needed at the White House. I disagreed strongly with many of his suggestions, as did others in the Administration, and therefore....

    — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

    ... to which Bolton replied, "You can't fire me m*ther-f*cker, I QUIT!

    Word on the street is that Bolton is "writing" a book about his time in Trumpolini's White House.

    Not sure which is chicken and which is egg?

    1087:

    whitroth @ 947: Evaluating where I live?

    Please, a number of times this summer, here in the DC 'burbs, I was horrified to find it reminding me of when I'd lived in Austin, TX, with the temps....

    Plus, this is the worst summer I can remember for mosquitoes. I can't go out even in the DAYTIME without insect repellent. They're eating me alive. Not to mention all the news stories I've seen about mosquito borne diseases (West Nile Virus & Eastern Equine Encephalitis).

    I couldn't live in Austin. It's too damn close to Fort Hood.

    1088:

    whitroth @ 949: "italics"

    And Scott, if you would put down any drinks you have, I'll suggest "San Francisco" by McKenzie, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bch1_Ep5M1s, with that great line about "warm San Francisco nights".

    The line about about "warm San Francisco nights" is not from Scott McKenzie's song, but from the Eric Burdon & The Animals song San Franciscan Nights

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4G3KPP1Nts

    1089:

    I appreciated recent comments from whitroth, Pidgeon, OGH, and Damian about ARES.

    The Advanced Rail Energy Storage (ARES) prototype and planned significant-scale deployment definitely uses classic electric locomotives (/generators), not diesel-electric ones. So, I apologise if I mislead readers of this blog by referring to the technology as COTS. Yes, it's a good point that the railroad firms don't have that as standard stock. What I really meant is that big electric engines (/generators) are classic technology that the industrial world knows cold, and can crank out in highly reliable form by the figurative bushel-basket.

    (Despite admitted dual handicaps of being both a Boomer and a US citizen, I do gamely try to avoid talking utter bollocks.)

    When the first ARES prototype was built in southwestern Nevada, a few years back, there was a flurry of good articles, which I don't have handy, but, FWIW, here's the sponsoring company's Web site, which appears to not entirely PR fluff: https://www.aresnorthamerica.com/ .

    And here's one of the good articles from 2016: https://www.vox.com/2016/4/28/11524958/energy-storage-rail

    1090:

    paws4thot @ 1004: And, in that event, BoZo and Trumpolini will be insisting that the only people needed to run the habitat indefinitely will be politicians and kleptocrats!

    "Mr. President, we cannot allow a mineshaft gap!"
         General "Buck" Turgidson

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybSzoLCCX-Y

    1091:

    Loudest aircraft I ever heard was an SR-71. It wasn't close. Are you counting sonic booms? Once heard a Concorde approaching New York, probably from a Cape Cod (or one of the other big glacial terminal moraine islands) beach. Got my attention, but took a bit of looking to visually spot it IIRC. This is What the Sonic Boom from the Concorde Sounded Like (Michael Ballaban, 2/13/19) Heard closer louder ones (2) in the mountains once, fighter pilots being bad.

    Saw a F35 at an air show recently; that was painfully loud at 200 meters (earplugs out by accident during one of the flybys, all subsonic).

    1092:

    David L @ 1050:

    "in the mid-nineties, Bellcore ... REQUIRED that a number be held unused after the account was closed for a minimum of 18 months."

    Then exchanges and area codes started running out of numbers due to pagers and cell phones. Then number portability became and issue and now area codes and exchange prefixes now mean where the number was originally issued. Sort of. Mostly. ...

    And now we have number spoofing due to IP calling so I get called with my area code and exchange which are really from Pakistan.

    All those old rules seem quaint to the younger folk. My son in law has a number that indicates he is calling from 300 miles away. He got it before it went to college. He has no plan to change it.

    I'm starting to give people in my contact list a different ring tone than the default, so that when the telemarketers call I can recognize them without answering the phone. I've put a note to that effect in my outgoing voice-mail message & tell callers they have to leave a message with name and phone number if they want to be added to my contact list.

    It would be a bit harder to do for someone who has to use the phone for business because it'd probably piss off prospective clients when they called for the first time. But I'm retired and don't have that many contacts I actually want to talk to.

    Next step is to figure out how to change the default ring tone to something short & sweet (preferably Ding once and go straight to voicemail) that won't bother me too much so I can use the current default for people I want to talk to. The current default is an old fashioned telephone ring & I twitch every time it goes off. I need to fix it so my Pavlovian Response works for me and not against me.

    1093:

    Word on the street is that Bolton is "writing" a book about his time in Trumpolini's White House. Yeah, distinct impression that Bolton is inventorying and sharpening his knives, and that he knows (and others, perhaps with money, do too) that revenue would be maximized by making it a must-read book during the 2020 campaign. (He might be considering the odds on whether or not DJT will actually be running.) Note he can write, at least bureaucratic material and polemics - a few of these are clearly his: John R. Bolton, goodreads

    1094:

    Graydon @ 1066: It's a mistake to ascribe the money to national actors.

    It's a post-national aristocracy acting to limit the capacity of states, much as you go from late antiquity to feudal because the magnates stopped obeying the emperor.

    Well, from my worm's eye perspective, at least one member of that "post-national aristocracy" has pretensions to becoming the New Emperor (First Citizen, Caesar, President, Führer, Leader ... a Tyrant by whatever other name); consolidating power by eliminating competing magnates who fail to kowtow, who does have "the capacity" of a state apparatus behind him and he's not shy about using that capacity.

    Denial-ism is also a mistake.

    1095:

    Since people are just catching up to #blackswan stuff, here's BBC2:

    What the Fuck?

    After an unusual week in politics, Britain demands to know... WTF? 😂

    https://twitter.com/BBCTwo/status/1172125141825986561

    Embedded video, semi-amusing.

    In other news, do a grep for Iceland and politics and that nuke just went off.

    Serious side: some tooled up RW USA fash got hold of the A D L threats and are running with them. Not many Icelandic supporters, but that doesn't matter - throw in the LGBT+ flags response to Pence (see earlier), they're now linking the Rabbi, open borders, the commercial / tourist threats. And, to be fair: it's got legs on it, since the A D L have acted like mafia for a while now.

    Do a grep... 1 or 2 years before it happened, but there we go.

    Pewpiedie did a bit ($50k donation to A D L, rescinded, wearing 'ironic not-Iron Cross') and the usual American Culture War people are all jumping around for free clicks, but everyone forgot the A D L literally targeted his Disney contract so, you know, 100mil children are now open to spotting the hypocrisy.

    I mean, if the A D L wanted to prove they were still viable in 2019, it's getting a bit creaky. All a bit Pavlovian and 50+ boomers getting absolutely trounced by the young-uns.

    Getting played by PPD? The entire of Twitter is old people getting dunked on.

    Not spotting the Icelandic play from your own home-grown fascists while stanning for Trump?

    Dumb. As. Fuck.

    1096:

    Why that bit matters?

    Oh, stuff like this:

    ICE Is Building A 'State-Of-The-Art' 'Urban Warfare' Training Facility That Will Include 'Hyper-Realistic' Simulations Of Homes In Chicago And Arizona

    https://www.newsweek.com/ice-hyper-realistic-training-facility-homes-chicago-arizona-1458721

    Of course, the USA privatized urban combat training sites for a while now (DeVos' brother, USA, Dubai etc) but ICE are post 9/11 and designed for only one thing.

    Anyhow, we should stop trolling you now.

    1097:

    Fin types all snorting at £8 bil shorts, stating that that is just hedging both sides normalcy. Is it all just normal hedging? I.e. how many of the political players involved are holding net short positions on the financial health of the UK? Walked through the responses to the 8b shorts piece, and it's still not clear. Some of them seem the sort that would crash the UK (the world economy, even) to gain a few 10s of millions of pounds. (re debt, I've paid attention to the various usages here.)

    Anyhow, we should stop trolling you now. No, it's fun. (Links are good.)

    1098:

    You say "I don't get if 400% increase of investment makes no different on the budget and ultimately on environmental impact of solar panel production/utilization. Probably parts of that subsidizing effort make it different."

    I didn't say it makes no difference to the budget. It obviously makes a difference to the budget, but it makes a bigger difference to the return on investment. Let me quote an acknowledged expert on renewable energy that will help you understand:

    "If you take other prices for real marked offers (these are, like I said, modules for installation on frames, not the "solar farm" itself) you get prices roughly 4-7 times higher than that. With all the equipment it is 10 times higher. With grid storage, services and peak mitigation it is totally maybe 15 times."

    So in the current situation, the panels and mounts make up 1/10th to 1/15th of the cost of the whole system. A serious attempt at renewable energy, such as the one proposed, which spends a similar amount of money building panel factories as France spent on nuclear would presumably cut panel and mount costs by at least 50% (probably 90%) compared to today's prices. So that means 1/20th-1/30th of the whole system cost. Taking a conservative view, say panels and mounts are just 1/20th of the system cost, then a 400% over build on panels would add 3/20ths, or 15% to the system cost. Comparing that to a 100% build, a 100% build produces 100% of the rated power approximately 0% of the time. The only time it makes 100% is at local noon, just after the panels have been cleaned, on the day that matches the angle the panels were installed, if there are no clouds. So at most, a few minutes twice per year, but probably not even that. So even now, when panels cost a lot, it's normal to overbuild by 20-30% because you'll almost never be clipping. (clipping is when panel output is more than the inverter capacity).

    When it's cloudy, output falls to about 30% of normal. By spending 15% more at a system level you get full output every day.

    Not only that, but you get the full output for more of the day. Have a look at this graph

    https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Irradiance-comparison-on-a-cloudy-and-a-clear-day_fig18_291522801

    All the time the curve is above the "500" line on that graph, a 400% system would be producing full power. 0730-1740 on sunny days, 0820-1620 on cloudy days.

    This random person on the internet says there are about 66% cloudy days in London

    https://www.quora.com/How-many-cloudy-days-are-there-in-London-in-a-year

    Tldr; For a 15% increase in capital cost, 2/3 of the days you generate full power rather than 1/3 power. Every day you generate full power all day, instead of hitting full power for a few minutes twice a year at most.

    1099:

    Bike lane construction projects in the US get sued and delayed for years.

    1100:

    Wouldn't this be considered a bit of a security fail to have something like this public facing without any authentication?

    It can be, but it doesn't have to be. The amount of information you need to add to what's visible there to make hostile use is significant - especially in my case. Even assuming you compromise the whole site and the owner has stored my postal address there, that address isn't where any of my sensors are. So you end up needing to use my email address to get my cellphone or ISP address details (based on where the product is used not where the bills are posted) and so on. Then you can use the inside sensors to work out when I'm home and plan to rob the place while I'm out, or kidnap me while I'm home.

    Or you could find out my address via any means and simply watch the place for less than a day to catch me either out or home.

    This isn't home automation, so it just doesn't have the other useful stuff about me. You can't look at the VoCs and say "aha, he just bought a new high end computer, I shall steal it" (to do that you look at the info my browser sends every time I ask for a web page).

    1101:

    I think you're not seeing the bigger picture; in this, retrofitting even existing roofs is a Good Thing.

    I was specifically responding to the argument that "people living in poverty need a nuclear-powered grid as the absolute bare minimum, nothing less is worth while". I don't think that kilowatt-scale home solar systems are necessary or even a good idea for many poor people.

    Again, based on my own direct experience in two places: a Pacific coral atoll, where the houses are designed to blow away every few years when a storm rolls over the atoll. Solar power systems need to be either movable to a safe place or be solidly mounted so that when large waves of seawater hit them they don't go away.

    In the inland parts of Timor a lot of houses are not really structural in the sense of "can bolt solar panels to them". But they also have things they can bolt panels to, or can build those things. Doing it the other way is at least as common - first you build a structure to hold an array of panels off the ground etc, then you use the newly created shelter underneath them for something... a pig pen (if there's shade the pigs will use the space unless you fence them out), a house, a shed, whatever.

    But in the rich world, yes by all means, home solar makes perfect sense both environmentally and financially. There is so much information on this subject that I wasn't aware it was even contentious. The objections I hear where I live are effectively religious in nature (viz, faith-based and often in deliberate defiance of facts).

    1102:

    Oh, and just to make it really clear: this is inside the office I work in and this is inside my house.

    Note that my house is not actually in the park at Wiley Park, despite what the map location tells you. Likewise, the office is not actually in the mangrove swamp at Silverwater. I hoped that would be obvious.

    1103:

    I too have experienced STOL noises, and I entirely agree with you. Even the not-very-STOL commercial passenger aircraft are less than ideal in terms of noise and the corresponding fuel consumption, but they fill a specific niche (rich bastards who DGAF about anyone else and are willing to pay a price premium to shave a few minutes off a short road journey is about 50% of it (Queenstown, NZ for example), the other half involves islands (tricky to run a bus service to Tarawa))

    That's why my suggestions for how you would make a quiet STOL passenger aircraft started at fanciful and ended at frankly insane. But I also love the idea of getting a very lightly built tank full of geriatric passengers and attaching it to a launch cannon. The list of things that would prevent that from ever being physically possible is very long but it's fun to think about it.

    1104:

    There's also the Rimutaka Incline at 1:15 and the infamous http://nzetc.victoria.ac.nz/tm/scholarly/tei-Gov11_06Rail-t1-body-d12.htmlRaurimu Spiral which answers the question "how do we avoid a 1:15 gradient" in an interesting way. The second article explains how you get trains up a 1:15 and why it's not normally done. Getting them down is obviously easier, but getting them down safely is harder and generally where you need to build track that steep you have other problems too (wind blew carriages off the track)

    1106:

    Australia has just got some F35. There is a military practice box about 20 nm east of where I live, that from memory starts at FL400 and goes up from there. I can't hear the TV without turning it up while they're playing up there. When I walk in the park next to a 4 lane highway, they drown out the traffic noise.

    1107:

    My local council has a better system. They just win the local elections and then resurface the roads, deleting the bike lanes. The mayor owns a road resurfacing company. Bikes don't destroy the road surface, who would want them?

    "Biography:

    Peta is the owner of Stabilcorp, a specialised road maintenance company which focuses on road safety throughout Australia. Her company is located in Wauchope."

    https://www.pmhc.nsw.gov.au/About-Us/How-Council-Works/Mayor-Councillors/Mayor-Peta-Pinson

    1108:

    Next step is to figure out how to change the default ring tone to something short & sweet (preferably Ding once and go straight to voicemail) that won't bother me too much so I can use the current default for people I want to talk to.

    None with vibrate only.

    1109:

    You guys. :)

    Direct vectored jet engines are so last century.

    A turbo electric aircraft splits the turbo engine from the propulsion array which is in the form of a wide array of small electric fans. This gives a high effective bypass and total area. The wide fan array area also maximizes boundary layer ingestion and wake filling improving efficiency and reducing drag. The airframe shields fam noise and the fans exhaust can also feed a flush vectoring propulsion nozzle. The Turbo generators are wing root mounted with an upper wing exhaust. Again reduces noise.

    As it turns out generic STOL performance is quite good without doing anything. Serendipitously if we put the fan nacelle location on top of the vehicle, at low speed the cruise optimized fan inlets see increased flow acceleration. This upper surface suction increase at low speed high power then delays stall separation and gives you much improved max lift coefficient. Sweet!

    1110:

    There's some evidence that the temperature you're raised in has a lifetime effect on the one you feel comfortable in

    reading something about density of sweat glands being different, but can't locate the reference now.

    My summers were hot and humid. And I dispise being cold. By that I mean outside temps approaching freezing.

    Where I grew up was where the Mississippi, Ohio, Tennessee, and Cumberland rivers all converged. Only places I've been that were more humid in the summer are Louisiana and Florida. And our temps always got into the mid 90+F for weeks each summer. 100F wasn't OMG, just "oh, a hot one this year". And I sweat more than most.

    My wife was an army brat and grew up all over. Including stints in Italy and Germany. And she hardly every sweats. We have trouble agreeing on sleeping habits and covers. And she has trouble when we walk around places like the Grand Canyon.

    1111:

    Oh and if we fuel this bad boy with LH2 we can use the cryogenic fluid to cool our superconducting micro power grid, generators and fan motors before burning it the turbo gen.

    1112:

    The "money", actually wealth in terms of production facilities and materials costs and design and transport comes from everyone since climate change isn't constrained by borders and lines in the sand.

    I recently talked with the head of a group drilling water wells in one of those incredibly poor interior African countries. After the wells are installed and equipted to run on human muscle power the village is charged a nominal fee for ongoing maintenance. Under $10/mo. They train locals to do the maintenance and after a while some become area repair techs. So no electricity or hydraulics. And except for spare parts the locals can keep them going.

    But it costs $10K give or take per well to drill and the monthly costs are subsidized. (Spare parts have real costs.)

    So it is a charity operation. But most of that is on the front end so once a well is in the charity requirement goes way down.

    1113:

    Dunno. I wouldn't be surprised to find that homo sapiens was pretty rare...but...Life tends to expand pretty exponentially with available energy - and the sun's a big source if you can build something survivable outside the atmosphere. At that point - you're just limited by transit times and neighbors. If we have neighbors, they seem awfully quiet - so no neighbors is a decent bet. Once you have a moon base - there's a lot of solar available even before you leave the moon. Albeit, this does make the rather optimistic assumption that we keep a technological civilization. On the other hand, it is likely that humans survive and unlikely that we become either wiser or hobbits.

    @1065 I tend to class the availability of lawsuits to endlessly impede construction as regulatory BS. At some point, it might be more effective if there was a predictable process, including a 'speak now or prepare to put up an extremely forfeitable bond if you wish to sue'. Such bonds should typically more than cover expected costs, interests, and generation of carbon owing to delayed construction. (Eg, for large plants, they should be in the 1B USD range). Bonds should be refunded according to the success of the lawsuit. (Nigh total == keep bond, you had a tiny point == forfeit 2/3 of bond, this was BS == on the hook for more) Yes, this would impede the ability of various entities to infinitely delay construction - unless it was a pretty clear lawsuit. Maybe if the court was confident that it'd find for the entity filing the lawsuit - then there'd be the option to waive the bond. Even then, I'd prefer a balancing regarding carbon generation - as in - there should be some confidence that the societal good from enforcing law C more than balances the increase in carbon generation from delaying construction. The goal should be to make attracting frivolous lawsuits an attractive investment for nuclear plant builders. Frivolous includes technically right but not important relative to not putting x tons of carbon into the atmosphere.

    For Brexit, I'm inclined towards the 'Iraq War' explanation. Take a bunch of management style people who might even be reasonably bright in their own fields; mix in hubris born of being overpromoted owing to birth; combine with absolute ignorance of the subject matter; leaven with a bit of wanting to stay in power...and you get people taking the country with probably the most to lose out of the EU or thinking invading Iraq and setting up a democratic government to lower oil prices would be a doddle. No conspiracy, just emergent idiocy. It is likely that Brexit will be a horrible loss to every interested interest bloc and even to nearly even corrupt grifter who shorts it.

    1114:

    If it wasn't about smoking—if smoking indoors was legal—those patios would either be fully enclosed or unheated for use during good weather only.

    Sorry, around here (US South) those patios are non smoking and get to be used twice as much as without the heaters. So profits up. Plus it is easier to have very light weight physical games outside rather than inside.

    1115:

    San Francisco Bay Area is not nearly as universally warm and sunny as the tourist advertisements would like you to believe, either. [/understatement]

    What's that phrase? "The coldest winter I ever spent was an August in San Francisco."

    Never visit without a lined jacket.

    Of course you can drive 2 to 3 hours east and be in near desert heat.

    1116:

    Ah yes the Harrier, flying proof that if you strap enough engine to a brick you can do VTOL.

    1117:

    Hand the panels out for near free and people will pay to put them up.

    Even if the panels are free the cost of the bits to get from variable DC out to AC that we all love isn't trivial. Along with the odd detail or two of actually mounting them. Also not on my roof. And many others around here.

    1118:

    prepare to put up an extremely forfeitable bond if you wish to sue' ... for large plants, they should be in the 1B USD range).

    Can I just point out that this is why some anti-nuclear people say "I like the theory, but there's too much commonality between nuclear advocates and anti-democracy activists".

    We have laws like that in Australia that are specifically and explicitly put in place to prevent protests, and they have been used for that purpose when the people targeted can't afford to challenge them (in court or in parliament). Saying "oh the problem is that the bonds are too small" puts you firmly on the side of the fascists (viz, authoritarians who believe government exists to support business). The association between fascism and violence isn't an unreasonable link here either, BTW, but again the state has prevented that being the subject of litigation so there's little online evidence of it. Again... who can we think of that as a political tactic isolates and dehumanises their opponents in order to minimise the violence being done to them?

    1119:

    Government subsidies can certainly help if they exist, but the reality is that the boom in solar in the US for the last decade has been primarily driven by operations like Solar City who in pay the upfront costs. You average home owner simply can't afford the costs of solar.

    Here in NC the state wide dominant power company will put solar on your roof for free. IF IF IF it makes sense. My roof would be a bad fit due to age and structure. My daughter just had them out and as I told her, the trees and the roof lines just would not let it work.

    This is done via the state public utilities commission allowing them to set it up with batteries and feed the grid when there is a surplus at your home and factor the capital costs into their rate structures for the entire state wide grid. Basically do this instead of another coal plant and the get to reap the same net income as if you HAD built the plant.

    1120:

    The just reform is to time limit this shit. It should not take ten years to decide if a case has merit. The strategy is to add costs via delay, which is clearly also undemocratic - where is the popular legitimacy in wrecking? Or if you like, consider how you would feel if every "Renewable" project got tied up in court for five years by a group of rabid evangelicals.

    So put an "Object by this date or forever hold your peace" clause into infrastructure builds, after which stays of construction are most certainly never, ever granted, and all court filings are viewed with extreme skepticism. Process cases filed in time faster. Much faster.

    1121:

    Renewables projects do get tied up in court; people have gone to extravagant effort to keep windmills from spoiling the view. Conservative politicians get in and scrap completed projects before they go operational and demand that the post-scrapping rate of return be used as cost of that category of renewables for all future planning purposes.

    Demanding the power to compel the courts so you can get what you want is not an optimal place to be going.

    1122:

    Unlike Moz, I don't see bonds as unreasonable at all. In fact, I'd like to see more of them. A bond equal to any possible damages a nuclear accident might cause. A bond equal to the end of life site restoration so that the burden isn't passed to the public. That kind of thing.

    When each nuclear development puts up a bond sufficient to compensate anyone who is forced to evacuate their home, then we can talk. (I think I calculated the bond for a plant near Sydney at 8 trillion AUD, but that was before the house prices tripled).

    1123:

    The pattern I am used to goes like this: * first we sue to force a proper endangered species survey * then we sue because that survey finds grounds to overturn the initial "high speed approval" (which can only be given if no endangered species) but the minister refuses to withdraw it * then we sue because development has gone ahead anyway * then we sue because the minister has approved "offsets" where they remove species from the development area in return for protecting different species in a much low-value area

    ... and so on. It sometimes seems as though one side has deep pockets and is willing to break the law to get what they want.

    But when we see time limits on objections that has been used to provide a "required delay time" where the developer can simply run out the clock then do whatever they like. There was also a sneaky case in Victoria where absolutely nothing happened on site and other efforts were made to keep the process secret, so that by the time anyone in the area knew what was happening the approvals were theoretically unchallengable. Luckily the high court didn't agree, IIRC on the basis that the notification requirements hadn't been met.

    The obvious balancing requirement is to say that proposals have a similar fixed time limit to gain approval after which no similar project can be proposed for the area (viz, if it's a proposed housing development then you can never get approval to build any kind of residence on that land in the future). But somehow I don't think that would be acceptable to you, or any developer. Even I think it would be silly. Sadly the alternative is to simply keep proposing exactly the same development or minor variations until the protesters are exhausted, or your attempt to buy legislative overrides succeeds.

    1124:

    Who cares if you miss out? Not me. A subsidy far less than that (pre selling the electricity generated 12 years in advance at 35 AUD/MWh about 25 USD/MWh) has seen about a quarter of Australian households install solar and that's rising every day.

    1125:

    but the French seem to have no problems at all with their nuke plants?

    Of all the western style democracies they seem to have both a reasonably low level of government corruption and a high level of top down government structure compared to the rest of them(us).

    1126:

    the French seem to have no problems at all with their nuke plants?

    The French have had problems with their nuke plants.

    Like the CANDU, some of the French designs relied on zirconium tubing to contain fuel bundles. Prolonged neutron bombardment makes zirconium tubes lengthen; this was a surprise to all involved. You open the fuel door and can't get it closed. It leads to letting tenders for a machine that you can clamp into the fuel door threads and shave the tube shorter with. Without, of course, cracking it at all because you need to do this on an operating reactor. (If you shut them down, you're pretty sure you'll never them started again due to a public overreaction to "we had no idea this was possible" interacting with your assurances that the design is safe interacting with it being pretty hot in there by now; simple tube replacement (with what?) isn't obviously an option.)

    The thing the French have is a political class consensus that the nukes are essential, no common law, and a gendemarie; it goes with a tendency to riot as a form of protest. They're also about the only Western nation not succumbing to "math is lower class".

    1127:

    If we were to build infrastructure for a large part of the world with solar-and-some-storage-but-mostly-they-do-stuff-mid-day power is there a compelling reason to convert to AC at all? We do it in the wealthier world to match our power grid - and therefore all our electric do-dads, but given a sufficient market such that DC appliances exist they could just skip all that equipment and loss.

    1128:

    AC is better for medium-range transmission; short range and long range (several hundred kilometres) work better with DC, in the later case at very high voltages.

    So if you're doing a submarine line from solar in Australia to Singapore, it'd be DC. If you're doing a line from Arizona to Chicago, it could be DC. If you're running a line to the next town over, ten or twenty kilometres, AC is more efficient.

    1129:

    Yes, family and community power grids would span meters to perhaps hundreds of meters.

    1130:

    Again, the localism thing is, near as I can tell, natural gas Astro-Turf. Not super confident about this - tracking the origins of a meme is goddess accursed hard, but I have seen a scary amount of fossil fuel funding pushing this.

    Certainly it counts as a "Useful Idiocy". Micro-climes mean long stretches of low production with very high frequency. If you want to actually supply power with wind and sun, then you should be calling for much, much larger and more robust grids.

    1131:

    The Advanced Rail Energy Storage (ARES) prototype ...

    "ARES" keeps making me think of the Amateur Radio Emergency Service (a loose organization of hams who provide communication during emergencies), which is rather more time tested. It's likely to be needed all too much in upcoming decades, too.

    1132:

    Moz @ 1104 Rimutaka used the Fell centre-rail gripping-for-adhesion system, so wasn't "simple" or "pure" adhesion ... almost-but-not-quite a rack, in other words.

    STOL & economic aricraft What someone ought to do is build a modern replica of One of these There's a lovingly-preserved one that I see flying over most Saturdays & Sundays in fine weather. Said to be one of the most reliable aircraft ever. For actual commercial flights, perhpas a modern ( turboprop ) version of the DH Dove or DH Heron might be an idea ... ( ? )

    1133:

    My summers were hot and humid. And I dispise being cold. By that I mean outside temps approaching freezing.

    The strange thing about being cold and temps approaching freezing is that for me +2 C (so 2 degrees C above freezing, this is about 36 F) usually feels much more cold than -2 (about 28 F). At least here it's because above freezing the air is much more humid, and the combination of humidity and low temp makes it feel a lot colder.

    I'd take something like -10 C (14 F) rather than +2 C if I had the choice, most of the time. Of course in the spring it's nice that the temperatures raise, but anything below +5 C and above freezing feels the worst for me.

    Of course this also depends on how you dress, but for me it's harder to dress warmly in that bit-above-freezing than below freezing.

    1134:

    Rimutaka used the Fell centre-rail gripping-for-adhesion system, so wasn't "simple" or "pure" adhesion ... almost-but-not-quite a rack, in other words.

    Or one can go the way of the Pike's Peak Cog Railway and say, "Never mind traction. We're going up that mountain." I understand the currently running bits average a 'mere' 16% grade.

    The trains no longer ascend the Manitou Incline, because there was a landslide in 1990 and also sanity set in. I imagine the planning session was interesting. Surveyor: "The slope averages a 40% grade! And that's not even the steep bits!" Mad engineer: "Hold my beer."

    1135:

    Small installations - assuming cost actually ends up lower - could be useful in the developing world. Financing fairly low rate loans for renewables might be useful. But...developing countries develop and will rather rapidly need reliable power. If storage isn't usable - they will use coal.

    @gasdive. I'd also tend to consider lifetime benefits of the plant - like reduced death rate and reduction of carbon generation.

    I'm kind of fascinated by this oddity:

    Aiigh!!! Global warming bad - must change or everyone dies.

    Nuclear would solve this. Therefore it must be hounded until it costs 3x. ( That's just country-to-country variation - real cost from regulatory loss in flexibility is probably higher. ). To be fair, some of the regulatory nonsense was likely driven by the fossil fuel industry.

    Now, my friend was pretty clear on his goals. He preferred a truly sustainable culture. This meant a 10-100x reduction in global population and a transition away from an agricultural civilization. The most effective method to obtain that result involved a civilizaional collapse. Global warming wasn't his preferred outcome - because of the environmental damage - but maintaining a large population and avoiding global warming was a net negative. (Preferred outcomes seemed to involve cheering antibiotic resistance.). He simply didn't like people much.

    This shaped his preferred approaches. And yes, antinuclear, not because it couldn't work - but because it tended to maintain capitalistic structures he detested.

    @moz. Generally, systems do need to work. Giving a fairly vocal minority the ability to price a non carbon generating technology out of existence and thereby twiddle thumbs for 30 years on global warming, thereby resulting in global catastrophy - is almost a perfect definition of not working. (I can almost guarantee that medical device development would halt if activist groups actually reviewed FDA filings to ensure compliance. Well, device costs would triple. Just based on reading too many with a jaundiced eye. People are just so incompetent at dealing with even mild complexity.)

    That said, failure to disclose or do required surveys should reset a timer. Doing an arguably poor survey, disclosing it, and being sued 4 years after construction starts is problematic.

    So, yep, I am fine with having review periods be strictly bounded. And yes, this does curtail some rights.

    Albeit, meh, I'm also tempted by retroactive, nonlimited liability for global warming deniers. And brexiteers. And having politicians include bets in their bills. (I bet lowering corporate taxes boosts revenues...oops...that didn't pay out...so the forfeit was? Raising them.). (not actually workable...really a daydream. Just so tired of 'conservative' bs)

    Overall though, the outcome is pretty clear. Step 0: monopolize nukes Step 1 - burn carbon until the planet heats up enough that the equator becomes hard to provide food for. Step 2 - Prevent migration. (So grim) (see step 0) At some point, destabilize countries to ensure agricultural collapse. Step 3 - Gradually transition to clean power. Step 4 - somewhat dystopian capitalistic societies end up with survival advantages - increased ability in terms of resource hoarding - from an individual and national standpoint - this argues that developing nations should, in a prisoners dilemma style fashion, heavily prioritize efficiency over clean power. The first to starve will be the ones slowing development. (Now, solar costs indicate that clean power may be the most efficient, but kind of irrelevant at this point because of step 1)

    1136: 942 - Go for it Dave. I'd like to hope that mine will major on relevant and/or funny. 1069 - I once saw a 2 ship Harrier flypast at East Fortune. People were literally coming out of the buildings to see what was making all the noise. 1089 - Er, in most of the "developed world" except Norf Mericuh ;-) electric traction is common place railway technology. 1091 - Thanks Bill. With the note that I played the clip at my usual 42, Concorde take off didn't seem much louder than an Embraer 145 at 1 mile out on climb-out. Bassier certainly, but not louder. 1104 - Er, my original point was that 1 in 30 was unusually and remarkably steep for standard gauge heavy rail. It was not an invitation for a game of "steepest rail incline Top Trumps"! 1121 and #1122 - I live about 150m from a wind turbine, and it's detectably noisy at that range.
    1137:

    I’d figured some sort of rack, or a funicular would ultimately need to be involved. But it would only make sense if most of the stuff is already sitting around anyway, so opportunistic for rare circumstances, though this ARES thing seems to be real.

    1138:

    Greg: What someone ought to do is build a modern replica of One of these (Dragon Rapide).

    Naah, you're thinking British. Looking at the global picture, the Antonov An-2 is a far better choice. Only went out of mass production in 2001, over 18,000 produced, and there's a modern all-composite/turboprop powered upgrade in development, the TVS-2DT.

    It was the Soviet equivalent to the DC-3, able to operate off dirt fields and with a stall speed so low it could function as a crop duster. When you have far-flung villages and towns (not to mention farms) scattered across a continent, building metaled roads or railways is uneconomic: the An-2 helped a lot and was designed to be simple, rugged, and easily maintained.

    The Dragon Rapide was elegant but a cutting-edge airliner when it was produced; a lot of the tech is thoroughly obsolete, especially the 1920s-vintage engines, and it wasn't designed for load carrying. The An-2 in contrast is plug-ugly and trailing-edge and built to be cheap, rugged, robust, and useful as a general utility plane.

    1139:

    It's strange, but it is why many people have found Cambridge colder than Toronto in the winter, and why it is more important to be appropriately clad for hill-walking in the UK than for many places with higher mountains and colder temperatures.

    Basically, humidity increases conductivity, both in the air and in insulating materials - wool suffers only slightly from this effect, but it still exists even for that.

    1140:

    On my road, it is vastly safer to cycle after they have resurfaced and before they have painted the lines demarking the 'cycle lanes'. That is a usual experience in the UK, but the politically correct demand more money is spent on "cycling facilities", even when they increase the risk to cyclists and discourage cycling.

    I don't know if that is globally true, but it would not surprise me.

    1141:

    How DARE you imply that the USA is not a satrapy of Russia?

    1142:

    If you ever make it to the U.S. I'll take you up there.

    Now you're just messing with him. If he flies to Boston he would be in the US but only a bit over 1/2 way to that spot.

    3000+ miles is a big deal to those not used to traveling around the US.

    1143:

    All else aside, Cambridge is at a higher latitude than Toronto, and not just by a little bit. I know there are a lot of other considerations, but it’s not nothing.

    1144:

    UK drivers are vastly better than Australian. Aussie drivers need lines on the road to know not to drive into cyclists.

    1145:

    Oh, agreed. Even down here (i.e. not in Edinburgh and points north), there is often not enough heat in the sun on a 'clear' midwinter day to tell which direction it is by skin warmth alone.

    But, as Mikko Parviainen indicated, a wind driving humid air at 0-5 Celsius bites right into you, and it is very chilly even without the wind.

    1146:

    "I'd also tend to consider lifetime benefits of the plant - like reduced death rate and reduction of carbon generation."

    Rather than piling that on as a plus for nuclear, shouldn't those be costs that are passed on to coal?

    "I'm kind of fascinated by this oddity:

    Aiigh!!! Global warming bad - must change or everyone dies.

    Nuclear would solve this."

    No, it wouldn't, that's the issue. It might have gone a long way towards solving it if we'd implemented it when we first knew about the problem 40 years ago. Now it doesn't seem feasible to build 25000 reactors in the next 5 years, or even 10, which is about the outer limit of the amount of time left.

    "Therefore it must be hounded until it costs 3x."

    It already costs about 10-100 (depending on how you measure it) times more, no hounding required. That's why it's hounded. The effort (money and effort being roughly interchangeable) is can be so vastly better spent than building nuclear.

    "( That's just country-to-country variation - real cost from regulatory loss in flexibility is probably higher. ). To be fair, some of the regulatory nonsense was likely driven by the fossil fuel industry."

    Even reactors built in totalitarian states take the best part of a decade to build. The regulatory burden makes a good whipping boy and its fun to make fun of greenies, but the issues are inherent. If they're as good as we keep hearing, then France (which has a great regulatory environment) could just build 25000 reactors and sell clean energy to the world, instantly making every Frenchman filthy rich. They don't, for the simple reasons that they're vastly expensive and slow to build. The French nuclear fleet is hugely subsidized and attempting to become the next Saudi Arabia would simply bankrupt the nation.

    1147:

    Nuclear would solve this.

    It doesn't.

    Ontario's nuclear generation system went in with a clear field in regulatory terms; the provincial monopoly power utility got handed the land they wanted and got subsidized reactor prices. They couldn't hit their cost targets; they couldn't get all that close to their cost targets. (They were in sober truth of fact quite responsible about trying to meet them, too; they looked at concrete prices (and the reasons for concrete prices), they looked at the volume requirements, and built their own cement plant.)

    What we take from this is that designing for sustained neutron bombardment is really hard engineering; that we don't, as a species, really understand that part; that we don't, as a species, know how to manage the necessary level of complexity in a robust ongoing way.

    This is actually one of the big advantages to distributed renewables; "put up a windmill" is easy. "Put up some solar panels" is easy. Digging a battery bunker is easy. The semiconductor fab for the solar panels isn't easy, but it's contained; you don't have to connect the complexity of producing the solar panel to the complexity of using the solar panel. Same with the batteries; the anode manufacturing might involve serious witchery but you don't have to care. That's much more important than is generally recognized. With nuclear, the complexity is all of a piece; fuel refining and fuel disposal and fuel storage are all part of this horrible hairball of radioactivity and non-proliferation.

    Oh, and the thing about global warming; what matters is stopping fossil carbon extraction. Everything else follows from that fairly directly, and until it happens nothing that really matters will happen because the incumbent power structure has successfully preserved itself.

    1148:

    BoZo standing behind a lectern that I'm sure was meant to read "Cock of the North", giving a speech.

    1149:

    they looked at the volume requirements, and built their own cement plant.

    A slightly mystical story in this world of reflexive outsourcing and the inevitable losses and consequences. In-housing functions where practical has too many benefits in terms of institutional memory and simple co-ordination to make any sense to anyone who matters, and of course it’s far better to pay for (often supplier-defined, because at this point you have no staff competent to judge) outcomes than to employ people. But this is on a T-shirt, no?

    1150:

    If you accept internal complexity and breadth, you're faced with a stark choice; you can go all process-above-all quantified continuous improvement, or you can succumb to the morass of it all being too complex for a human to keep track of.

    It's been interesting to watch this in aerospace these last couple decades. Aircraft started off as the poster-children for "you have to do the process thing" because there was no other way to do it at all. Two generations later, the idea that profits are subordinate to process is anathema and we're watching Boeing gut-shoot itself.

    The short version is that sure, it works better, if you want it to work, to keep the core capabilities in the firm. But you -- if you're a decision maker -- aren't generally using that definition of work.

    1151:

    F35. ... When I walk in the park next to a 4 lane highway, they drown out the traffic noise.

    And yet except for when they do vertical I suspect they are quieter than most previous as they can do supersonic without afterburners.

    Loudest noise I ever heard was a pair of F16s doing a joint takeoff one day while waiting at STL for a flight. The F16 plant shares (or did) the runways at STL with the consumer folks. They rotated in about 1/3 the distance as the commercial jets.

    1152:

    WRT solar panels, I just happened across this:

    https://www.freezonearuba.com/free-zone-aruba-news/solar-park-airport-aruba-completed/

    [EXCERPTS] The solar park at Aruba Airport is completed... More than 14.000 solar panels are installed and cover the entire parking lot at the airport. The solar panels produce 3, 5 megawatt... In the upcoming months solar panels will be installed on roofs of different schools and government buildings. The solar park is part of Aruba’s 2020 vision to become 100% independent from fossil fuels and makes Aruba a leading example for the region.

    https://www.google.com/maps/place/Aruba/@12.5043804,-70.0081962,349m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x8e8538cfe25a77db:0xf16a8a3e89818c2f!8m2!3d12.52111!4d-69.968338

    1154:

    A couple of years ago I had lunch with a retired engineer who was one of the examiners for professional engineers. He said that the worst designers were typically nuclear engineers. Their designs would meet the code, but they didn't optimize past that — even if a simple design change would exceed the code and be cheaper. It was as if the minimum design was all that was required.

    On the bright side, he said the examining panel had full authority and no targets — if no one was sufficiently competent they didn't have to certify anyone. (In contrast to accounting — one of my nieces sat her accounting exams and I learned that there is no absolute standard: they certify the top xxx period who sit the exam. So ideally you want to write the exam when fewer people are writing it as you have a better chance of passing.)

    1155:

    Everyone's talking about aircraft noise but the loudest noise I've ever heard was the noise in the machine hall of the Ffestiniog pumped storage station. That was, uniquely in my experience, loud enough to cause actual pain. The chap showing us round said that when they were generating rather than just spinning it was much louder and reckoned I wouldn't be able to stand it at all. Neither he nor any of the other staff had ear defenders; they are probably all as deaf as posts by now :(

    Aircraft... I've experienced Concorde's buboom and found it actually not massively loud; most of the energy was at frequencies below the hearing range. What was impressive about it was the amount of overpressure it generated - enough to make the entire cabin roof (shallow elliptic plywood arch) go boioioioing. Not hard to imagine what that would do to houses if it was hitting them every day.

    1156:

    Optimization is risk.

    I would not be surprised if nuclear engineering has an institutional bias against risk sufficient to function as a bias against optimization.

    1157:

    The problem with the the process that JBS mentioned is that specific group, NCWARN, isn't trying to "fix" or "make the plant" safer. Their entire goal is to stop it from being built or never start up or shut it down. All the stated reasons in the lawsuits are a smoke screen for that goal.

    Their lawsuits go after perfection which can never be achieved so they always have a reason to sue. And have been doing so since before construction started.

    The plant has been operational since 1987.

    And when we are with our German friends they just can't believe we live 10 miles from the plant and can sleep at night.

    1158:

    but given a sufficient market such that DC appliances exist they could just skip all that equipment and loss.

    My formal electrical engineering training is way in the past but I'm not convinced that DC in the home/office is all that great an idea. Mainly motors are an issue but overall my thought is DC is a bigger hassle and requires more metal. Miniature converters are better than in the past but I still have my doubts.

    It is old enough that much of it may not apply but there was a very interesting article written by a small scale data center guy about 10+ years ago. He bought a data center to add to his collection. It was DC internally for power. He thought it would be better as all of the stuff in the center was DC. It was a nightmare according to the article. He had all kinds of specific examples. But as I said maybe the state of the art is better now.

    1159:

    The machine hall in a power station is the second loudest for me.

    I once attended a wedding, and just after the dinner a 30 strong bagpipe band marched into the venue, a small golf club lounge maybe 50 foot square, and played for 20 minutes (the groom's brother and nephew were pipers). You know those humorous descriptions where an author tells how the aural nerves shutdown (pterry used it a few times)? That's what happened. The sound was quite simply indescribable.

    1160:

    Portable battery-powered tools have been driving a lot of innovation in DC motors.

    So in some respects I would expect, yes, better now.

    There are real advantages for LED lighting to having DC wiring available rather than having to convert for every lighting fixture, too. But there you run into guessing games about appropriate voltages.

    1161:

    The US legal system, not having the “user pays the legal fees” of Commonwealth systems, is at the other extreme.

    1162:

    Not a mechanical engineer, so I forget the details, but it was more along the lines of "this pipe would be stronger and less subject to corrosion if you did Y", and the engineer's response was "but X meets the code so it's good enough".

    We did talk about risk, safety factors, etc — I was surprised that the culture (as the examiner described it) was akin to the student who aims at a 50% to get the credit, rather than a higher mark to have a better chance of passing. (To use an analogy from my current field.)

    This was a few years ago, so not the generation of engineers that designed the plants, but the ones just starting out so graduating university around 2015 or so.

    1163:

    I'd take something like -10 C (14 F) rather than +2 C if I had the choice, most of the time. ... Of course this also depends on how you dress, but for me it's harder to dress warmly in that bit-above-freezing than below freezing.

    To be honest once it gets below 50F (10C) or so I get very uncomfortable. My finger tips start going numb below 40F (5C). Even with gloves. I think my body starts reacting to the cold much faster than most. And since I sweat more than average it is hard for me to dress for cold below 40F and not sweat which makes it all worse.

    1164:

    So born after I left engineering. Scary thought. Now I feel old :-/

    1165:

    notification requirements hadn't been met.

    “But the plans were on display…” “On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them.” “That’s the display department.” “With a flashlight.” “Ah, well, the lights had probably gone.” “So had the stairs.” “But look, you found the notice, didn’t you?” “Yes,” said Arthur, “yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard.”

    1166:

    Jeff Fisher @ 1099: Bike lane construction projects in the US get sued and delayed for years.

    Sooner or later everything in the U.S. gets sued.

    1167:

    “On the other hand, it is likely that humans survive and unlikely that we become either wiser or hobbits.”

    The long-term options are (1) wiser, (2) hobbits, (3) a few million hunter-gatherers.

    1168:

    Generally exceeding code for N-stamp (the US nuclear power plant equipment regulations)in the US means the construction or equipment in question doesn't MEET code which means it can't legally be used. Altering the design from code to "improve" it can introduce other failure modes which won't necessarily be discovered until a lot of money and effort and time has been expended.

    Sometimes the code changes -- the current design for AP1000 reactors was changed by the ASME who control N-stamp approval while the four plants under construction in the US were being built. This meant a rather large and expensive part for each reactor which was was complete or in the process of manufacture had to be scrapped because it wouldn't meet the necessary conditions required to start the reactor when it was finished.

    1169:

    I used to live under the path into the same airport's 12/30 (Dad worked on the RAF side of the field), and it was a lot quieter. I even once managed to fly over our house in a DHC Chipmunk :)

    But for sheer noise, Avro Vulcan. All the engines of Concorde, without the same restraint. Skies darken, earth shakes, dark shadow passes overhead...

    1170:

    we don't, as a species, know how to manage the necessary level of complexity in a robust ongoing way.

    Engineers don't know how, either. The classic book, still worth reading after 20 years, is Normal Accidents by Charles Perrow.

    I am an engineer, and his examples humble me. I loved the one about a refinery which had a major safety assessment, and fixed all the issues, and then had an accident which revealed - YESSS - bad safety planning !!

    1171:

    Paws WRONG "Cock O'the North" ( ! ) I prefer 2001

    1172:

    David L @ 1115:

    "San Francisco Bay Area is not nearly as universally warm and sunny as the tourist advertisements would like you to believe, either. [/understatement]"

    What's that phrase? "The coldest winter I ever spent was an August in San Francisco."

    Never visit without a lined jacket.

    Of course you can drive 2 to 3 hours east and be in near desert heat.

    I don't care where you go, if you don't take a coat with you it will have the most unseasonable cold snap in all of recorded history.

    1173:

    David L @ 1157: The problem with the the process that JBS mentioned is that specific group, NCWARN, isn't trying to "fix" or "make the plant" safer. Their entire goal is to stop it from being built or never start up or shut it down. All the stated reasons in the lawsuits are a smoke screen for that goal.

    Their lawsuits go after perfection which can never be achieved so they always have a reason to sue. And have been doing so since before construction started.

    The plant has been operational since 1987.

    And when we are with our German friends they just can't believe we live 10 miles from the plant and can sleep at night.

    Nevertheless, their lawsuits were neither frivolous, nor malicious.

    Something I'm seeing here with all the discussion of commercial solar vs household solar vs wind vs hydro vs pump stored hydro vs nuclear is a tendency to argue they're all impossible and useless because none of them individually will solve all the problems; can't use them anywhere because there are some places where they won't work. The quest for a PERFECT solution keeps you from accepting the merely good partial solutions.

    Seems to me you're all missing the obvious. You use each in the places where they will work and use something else in the places where they won't. And that something else may even be something none of us has thought of yet.

    1174:

    To be honest once it gets below 50F (10C) or so I get very uncomfortable.

    With us, that's more like 60F. Below 70F is getting noticeably chilly.

    1175:

    "There are real advantages for LED lighting to having DC wiring available rather than having to convert for every lighting fixture, too. But there you run into guessing games about appropriate voltages."

    No, this is completely wrong.

    It doesn't matter what voltage arrives at the light fitting, you still need some kind of extra gadgetry at the fitting to set the current through the LEDs. With an AC supply of given voltage and frequency, ie. the existing standard, this "gadgetry" can be as simple and loss-free as one capacitor. With a DC supply you have to go to a full-on "converter", with all the additional complexity and losses - and what the converter is essentially doing inside is converting the DC to AC in order to regain the advantage of being able to do low-loss reactive regulation which the use of a DC supply has thrown away.

    I know there are various kits available for domestic LED lighting installations which provide a constant-voltage 12V (usually) bus from which you then hang parallel clusters of LEDs... clusters which incorporate resistors to limit the current, and typically waste 20-25% of the input power as heat in the resistors. I don't count these as a valid pattern; I count them as dogshit devices that waste power through the combination of ignorance and capitalism. (Same goes for the "Dumb IC Stupid Driver" LED plaques you can get on ebay which tout their ability to be connected direct to the mains without a separate ballast; in fact they do need a separate ballast because the built-in current limiting is purely resistive and not fit for purpose.)

    Industrial versions of the bus-with-LED-clusters kits exist which do it as it should be done - the bus is powered by a constant current source, and the LED clusters are connected in series. There are no power-wasting series resistors, and the bus voltage is irrelevant; it is the bus current which is the important figure.

    LED lighting is pretty much at the top of the list of things that a DC mains supply is not good for. Second only, it seems to me, to devices with induction motors (electrically bombproof, last as long as you keep the bearings lubricated) in, like fans and fridges.

    That "electronics runs on DC" doesn't automatically mean a DC mains supply is advantageous. Most electronic stuff needs a clean supply at a specific voltage which probably isn't whatever the mains is, so it still needs a PSU. (Even if you can't see it. A lot of "5V" USB etc. doobries have a linear regulator inside and run off 3.3V internally.) And pretty well everything "large" or consuming significant power (computers, TVs, stereos etc) has several different internal supplies at different voltages, so it has to include a PSU no matter what kind of external supply it runs from.

    The main power sinks in a house are things with heating elements in (cookers, clothes and dish washers, space and water heaters, etc). These need to run off a high voltage to avoid silly levels of I2R loss in the supply, so if your DC mains is suitable for these, everything else still needs a PSU anyway. Air conditioning is another one, which not only sucks lots of juice but uses induction motors. Same applies to fridges and freezers, though in lesser degree.

    Indeed, there's very little that DC mains is good for. A handful of electronic gadgets whose internal circuitry operates solely on whatever single voltage is chosen for the mains, operates efficiently at that voltage, doesn't mind dirty supplies, and consumes no more than a few watts. Oh, and isn't already just another kind of converter, so things like battery chargers don't count. That doesn't really leave much.

    1176:

    With respect to Ontario nuclear costs.

    A nuclear plant is the interest rate cast in concrete.

    Darlington was built while Gerald Bouey (Governor of the Bank of Canada) was trying to get inflation down to zero.

    They were paying 15% interest (at least, that was the rate on a bond that was still active when I went looking for the rate a few years ago).

    Design and construction added up to about 3-4 billion CDN. Add the interest costs of the construction period and it was delivered for 12 billion.

    1177:

    Toronto is too warm in the winter.

    A factor of coping with approximately freezing temperatures (see opening comment) that has not been pointed out so far is slush.

    Standing in a water/ice mixture is WAY colder that standing on nice hard dry (water) ice.

    1178:

    JBS @ 1173 An old problem: The BEST is the enemy of the Good (enough) Often deliberately used to sytmie otherwise useful projects ( HS2 @ 250 mph - rather than 200-220 mph is a classic example of this )

    1179:

    Or one can go the way of the Pike's Peak Cog Railway

    or funiculars like http://www.brooklineconnection.com/history/Facts/Inclines.html

    1180:

    to gasdive @1098

    I didn't say it makes no difference to the budget. It obviously makes a difference to the budget, but it makes a bigger difference to the return on investment.

    Apparently it takes much more time to explain things to modern "ecologist" generation than I expected, but I am not really angry. This is not their fault if they've never been taught engineering or some economical principles that production-side people use everyday (most of them aren't located in the same country as them and their ways of thinking are almost literally foreign). Boss on my first job said something like "if you want to make progress somewhere, you have to strike the same point repeatedly instead of spreading yourself around uselessly".

    So in the current situation, the panels and mounts make up 1/10th to 1/15th of the cost of the whole system. A serious attempt at renewable energy, such as the one proposed, which spends a similar amount of money building panel factories as France spent on nuclear would presumably cut panel and mount costs by at least 50% (probably 90%) compared to today's prices. So that means 1/20th-1/30th of the whole system cost. Taking a conservative view, say panels and mounts are just 1/20th of the system cost, then a 400% over build on panels would add 3/20ths, or 15% to the system cost.

    https://images.app.goo.gl/SnP9yYngdKwP8yzP8 As I said, the Chinese on this site want to sell you "solar sells", and true to point, these are what is located on picture I provided. BUT, if you want everything else that makes them usable, you need things that are also marked as "frame, glass, 2x encapsulant, backsheet, junction box" and they also need money for that. So, say, the resulting solar cell costs upwards 1/3rd of the capital investments, before you consider to use it in a specific way. Moreover, they ALL are scaled proportionately when you have the power increase by 400%, because you increase number of solar cells, not "solar cells".

    Comparing that to a 100% build, a 100% build produces 100% of the rated power approximately 0% of the time. The only time it makes 100% is at local noon, just after the panels have been cleaned, on the day that matches the angle the panels were installed, if there are no clouds. So at most, a few minutes twice per year, but probably not even that. So even now, when panels cost a lot, it's normal to overbuild by 20-30% because you'll almost never be clipping. (clipping is when panel output is more than the inverter capacity).

    That is almost correct, but instead of 20-30% "overbuild" you will have to see at the difference of "installed capacity integrated over time" and "produced energy". It is not the same as efficiency of solar panels, which is improving to over 25%, but a difference between ideal conditions and actual situation. There's overcast, dust, angle of sun rays, etc. So let's move swiftly to ways you can install them on site.

    In residential, generally you can just plop them on roof that looks to the sunny side, but that also means no sun tracking capability. Cheapest option and your only spend additional money for cabling and frame, which is practically null. But that would mean serious reduction to the efficiency, not even proportional to things that you described in this graph. It is because irradiance is measured at flat earth and the rays always fall at an angle. If you angle your roof, you can improve that realistically by 20-30% I guess. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Irradiance-comparison-on-a-cloudy-and-a-clear-day_fig18_291522801

    OTOH if you mount solar cells on a swivel mount that tracks the sun, you energy production will go up WAY higher, maybe +50% because your angle don't decrease until sun goes out of sight and it becomes dark. SO that's one factor mitigated, but at a price of control systems and power motors, which will cost you around the same as solar panels or lower. This is also a scaling value, if you did not notice, so for 400% increase in power you have 400% increase of capital investments.

    Now let's get to the integration side - the final circle of hell. To install residential, you only need your roof or maybe a yard you own, and a team of people with screwdrivers - that saves you a lot. You still need power accumulation feature or electrical network connection to mitigate energy production curve - back in the days when people considered backup options to wind and sun they opted for backup diesel generation that costs a fraction (something like 1/20th or less) of installed capacity but actually chugs a ton of fuel (which is many times the installed generator capacity over the years). That said, presuming that you will be able to make autonomous system by increasing the storage capacity of those accumulators - they are going to cost unrealistically high, grid connection is always cheaper.

    With large industrial farms you actually forced to use more realistic options for energy storage - that is either power output regulation (this is where you regulate power output of other types of power plants in the same network, which are usually not loaded at 100% capacity). Or you can use things for accumulating energy, of which realistically only hydro-accumulation is an option nowadays. So at any given time solar and wind production can not be more than 15-30% of installed capacity of network (including accumulation), because when it is, for example, evening peak of consumption and there's no wind and sun, you are forced to use what you have, or the outage follows.

    Also with large farms you are actually using a lot of land, be it wind and solar, and therefore land regulation and a lot of other not very obvious options. Now consider the following - if you use generators like nuclear, or fossil fuels, your land usage scales proportionate to installed capacity. Only in case of solar, not only you use a lot of it, you also use proportionately more land for it. Same is with wind generation, almost, especially if you reach the limit of single turbine size (that is why they are using offshore generation now). "Normal" generators are not only extremely compact in comparison, they also are scaling in height in additional to their required area.

    So, in effect, when you increase your coal/gas power plant by 400% output, the land area for it increases maybe by 100% or less. For solar and wind you get the same 400%. Is that any wonder that there's so many problems with alternatives these days? OTOH in space there's no "alternative" energy, because THE ONLY energy you have is solar, and at best you can scrounge for fission elements from nearest planetary surface.

    1181:

    “Also with large farms you are actually using a lot of land, be it wind and solar,” Based on my observations in various places including USA and Ireland, when wind power shares space with farming the amount of land it occupies is the diameters of the towers plus a meter or less of weeds.

    1182:

    A nuclear plant is the interest rate cast in concrete.

    Which is some of why Bruce -- the Bruce Nuclear Generating Station, "the world's largest fully operational nuclear generating station by total reactor count, the number of currently operational reactors, and total output" -- did rather better; they still didn't come in on budget.

    There are 448 civil reactors currently operable; there's another 53 under construction. That's a really small base of engineering practice. (There are, frex, more than 50,000 "large dams".) If we count from 1960 and count all 501, it's not ten per year. It's really, really unlikely the problem is well understood.

    1183:

    Looking at the global picture, the Antonov An-2 is a far better choice. Only went out of mass production in 2001, over 18,000 produced, and there's a modern all-composite/turboprop powered upgrade in development, the TVS-2DT.

    I vote for the De Havilland Twin Otter, which is still in production, 55 years on. It switched to turboprop in the 1960's, and composites a decade ago. They're the go-to plane for all kinds of odd things, like landing on skis in Antarctica.

    And - ta DAH - electric versions are in the works. Harbour Air flies classic Otters, Twin Otters and radial-engine Beavers between Seattle and Vancouver, and have announced that they're electrifying their 42 plane fleet.

    1184:

    Solar shouldn't go off in the boonies; solar should go over existing pavement. That land's already dead.

    Yes, this is a bit more difficult, but the Mall Parking Lot/Highrise Parking Lot is definitely a thing, and taxing those at punitive rates while unsolared would be a start.

    1185:

    Once x watts worth of installated panels is cheaper than x watts worth of inverters, it makes sense to overbuild the panels, so the expensive inverters can run at 100% for more of the time.

    1186:

    The An-2 is basically a flying Landrover.

    Greg would love them, I'm sure :)

    1187:

    Note that the first-gen CANDUs at Darlington, Pickering, and Bruce, hanivng reached the end of their 40 year design life, are getting refurbished. Not a “we think we can limp this thing along for a few more years before something breaks” life extension, but a return to good-as-new condition, to be followed by another 40 years of operation.

    I don’t know if anyone’s getting a big quarterly bonus out of it, but from a societal point of view that’s a pretty good return on an investment.

    1188:

    (Maybe he already does. I may not have been paying attention.)

    1189:

    Ooooh, connections :)

    "The Cock O' The North" was the Regimental March of the Gordon Highlanders.

    Anyone who wants to understand the British Army (or at least, the Scottish Regiments) could do worse than read George Macdonald Fraser's work of genius "McAuslan" trilogy[1]; and as it turns out a thinly-veiled tweak to the author's actual experiences as a subaltern in their 3rd Battalion, immediately after the end of the Second World War in the Middle East (he spent the war as a Private in the Border Regiment, fighting in Burma - covered in his book "Quartered Safe Out Here").

    Anyway, he also wrote the "Flashman Papers" - whose titular Old Etonian character leads us back to the mendacious, cowardly, and unfortunately successful Boris Johnson...

    [1] I can't praise it highly enough. It's not militaristic, nor a tale of derring-do, or toxic masculinity. Instead, it's an brilliant paean to the ordinary soldier, and to those civilians pressed into uniform to fight tyranny. Read it; if you're not hooked after the first twenty pages, I'll be gobsmacked.

    1190:

    The privately owned ones are generating a nasty price tag. My estimate (VERY rough) is they are asking for a 20% return on the money.

    1191:

    And here’s what STOL may look like in the 21st Greg. :)

    https://www.nasa.gov/content/hybrid-wing-body-goes-hybrid

    1192:

    (Adding to, not rebutting)

    Some would say that’s already standard practice. The Australian market at the moment is overflowing with 6.6kW offerings that include 5kW inverters, with the subsidy coming in at around AU $3.5k installed, so around twice that without. It’s worth just re-emphasising that this is not a fringe, speculative exercise at this stage, it’s already on 25% of residential rooftops here now and this is increasing.

    Trackers are rare in Oz. The efficiency gain available is partly a function of latitude, in low latitudes it can be pretty low and better made up for by overbuilding. It’s more in the “fun to experiment with” category as a DIY project. There are many example projects around online. The most expensive components are the linear actuators, though I’ve seen write-ups of projects that used stepper motors. There are two different philosophies for the control system: you can just program in the diurnal-annual sun positions, or you can make the system seek its own optimal angle using the power output from the panels as feedback. Either can be done with cheap microprocessor, though if it is more about hobbyist fun a Raspberry Pi would work too.

    Commercial offerings for trackers are real and supply solar farm projects all over the world up into the GW range (a company called SunPower comes to mind, but only because they scale down to residential systems). None of this stuff is hypothetical and we know the costs pretty well.

    1193:

    Don't @ 1183 I'd forgotten them ( The DH Twin-Otter ) YES! Or a very slightly larger 4-engined version? Definitely the way to go. Actually, it's the "Land_Rover" approach to aviation - isn't it? See also alcytes @ 1186!

    Martin @ 1189 Agreed 150% Can I also add ... Sam Gamgee in LotR - very plainly the ordinary private in WWI - who, unlike his "master" (Frodo) damaged, PTSD etc, went back to Rosie ...

    1194:

    I didn't read your whole post. It's pointless. As I said, I've become tired of explaining the same things again and again, as it seems are you. You're convinced that it's impossible to build factories that churn out complete panels for 19c/W and nothing will change that. You're convinced that the alibaba offering I linked to is single cells, rather than a complete panel. Pointing out that it's a panel, shows the panel, even specifies the colour of the frame, all that has no effect on you. It's right there in black and white "Canadian Solar Panel Module 350 Watt Black Poly PERC Solar Panel 350W" the specs list the size of the panel "195699040mm" (no-one is growing silicon 2m across, they're not 2 m wide wafers). They even list the connector type. "MC4" (the connectors are down stream of the junction box and you can't have them fitted without having fitted the junction box). Yet you still say, "BUT, if you want everything else that makes them usable, you need things that are also marked as "frame, glass, 2x encapsulant, backsheet, junction box" and they also need money for that."

    That's the point I stopped reading

    It's a belief not grounded in facts, and I've learned there's no evidence that can shift such a belief. It's pointless to try.

    1195:

    when wind power shares space with farming the amount of land it occupies is the diameters of the towers plus a meter or less of weeds.

    There have been a bunch of articles lately about solar sharing space with farming, eg this one or this.

    1196:

    And only stayed the regimental march because they'd played it at Waterloo. The Victorian era would otherwise have had serious trouble with a song where the polite words contain "up the leg of yer drawers". (And we will say nothing about Auntie Mary.)

    Seconding the recommendation for McAuslan from way over here; worth it just for the "George MacDonald Vulture" story.

    1197:

    Yeah.

    I like nukes; I'm old enough, and grew up in the right part of the country, to have fond youthful memories of standing on top of an operating Slowpoke and looking down through the window to see the blue Cherenkov glow. I think the whole thing is cool.

    It's still really tough to get the investment math to work out. Ontario Power Generation has a guaranteed price; it's nothing like a market. I don't see any obvious reason a utility must be a market, or even ought to be a market, but my confidence in the folks deciding what to count is not readily detectable.

    1198:

    For a while I was wondering whether he simply hadn’t read the spec sheet, or didn’t understand it. Either way, others pointed out the error and he still proved impervious to clue, so just letting him dig deeper has been both necessary and depressing. The last outburst, a passionate lecture in the genre of teaching your grandmother to suck eggs, must surely be his last on the topic. After all we are insisting these things that are clearly impossible exist and that we have seen them with our own eyes: we must either be very stupid or lying.

    1199:

    Or you can use things for accumulating energy, of which realistically only hydro-accumulation is an option nowadays.

    Bloomberg New Energy Finance seems feel otherwise. They are predicting terawatts of batteries, long term.

    Not that I agree with them. They see lithium batteries at $176/kWh now, and dropping to half that across a decade. On paper, flow batteries will be even cheaper, and have better lifetimes. I do hope that lithium's success doesn't kill off the alternatives.

    1200:

    You say "Note that the first-gen CANDUs at Darlington, Pickering, and Bruce, hanivng reached the end of their 40 year design life, are getting refurbished. Not a “we think we can limp this thing along for a few more years before something breaks” life extension, but a return to good-as-new condition, to be followed by another 40 years of operation.

    I don’t know if anyone’s getting a big quarterly bonus out of it, but from a societal point of view that’s a pretty good return on an investment."

    Whereas the wiki for Darlington says:

    "On October 14, 2016, OPG began Canada’s largest clean infrastructure project – the refurbishment of all four of Darlington’s reactors. According to the Conference Board of Canada, the $12.8 billion investment will generate $14.9 billion in economic benefits to Ontario, including thousands of construction jobs at Darlington and at some 60 Ontario companies supplying components for the work.[17] The project is scheduled for completion by 2026, and will ensure safe plant operation through 2055."

    So, 2055 minus 2026 is 29 years not 40.

    The refurbishment started in 2016, 26 years after the first reactor came on line. So saying "hanivng reached the end of their 40 year design life... followed by another 40 years of operation" is a bit of a stretch. More accurately: having made it to 26 years of its 40 year design life, it requires a decade of refurbishment that we estimate will cost 80% of what it cost to build in the first place, (or 300% of the initial build estimate) and will then have a design life of 29 years, which we fully expect it will meet this time.

    12.8 billion dollars divided by 3,512 MWe is 3.64 dollars per Watt. I've looked through the company's annual reports and I can't find the operating cost for the plant broken out from all their other operating costs. That makes it hard to compare like for like on MWh to the grid basis, but 'not great' springs to mind.

    That's not really a great return on investment compared to what's on offer from the renewables sector.

    1201:

    I do hope that lithium's success doesn't kill off the alternatives.

    Lithium is inherently rare. (It's all from past radioactive decay of beryllium (if memory serves, anyway; something); lithium doesn't last appreciable lengths of time in large stars so we don't get much here on our little cooled blob of exploded stardust.) Everybody knows it; lots of people are looking at non-lithium chemistry, and how to not need so much cobalt, and so on.

    It's still underfunded as an area of research but it's pretty likely that one of the alternatives using less-rare elements will take over.

    1202:

    Um. Perhaps in the sense of 'not a frivolous and thereby possibly penalized' lawsuit - the standard there is very high. But, we have a lot of laws. I'm pretty sure a sufficiently diligent police person could find an excuse to put most people in prison. Similarly, it isn't hard nowadays to stop construction of practically anything. This has proven to be a real problem. If we had similar regulatory burdens for coal, um, well, that might have ended up well. I would tend to agree that it'd be more rational to penalize coal for its additional costs. And solar for habitat destruction, where applicable. That said, based on the safety record so far, nuclear is somewhat overregulated.

    @1184 Based on costing of large installations vs residential - solar should go in the boonies - and cutting down a few forests or, preferably, effectively paving a few deserts is fine. There is not enough free pavement - though highways could use the shade. Personally, I nominate Arizona.

    To some extent, solar and nuclear have limited synergy - as nuclear is sort of hard to ramp - so the technologies don't coexist well. Meh. I'm optimistic that solar and storage will work well for ~70% of the population. The cost is maybe pretty ok. At least, plenty of solar and storage seems to be popping up in India.

    On the other hand, China is building out a ton of coal plants. (~an extra quarter terawatt). This tends to indicate that solar + storage is not yet cost competitive.

    I can't help noticing that people in the UK and Russia are pretty skeptical - all things considered - that makes sense. Nuclear is probably a better choice in those areas. Other stuff is interesting, but not too important. Most of the argumentation seems to come either from people who've waited a lot of years for solar and who have completely lost faith or from people who've watched nuclear go way over budget.

    @1168. That sort of regulatory oversight is nice for reducing unforseen accidents. It is terrible for reducing costs. Engineers in the nuclear industry are doubtless terrible - less a culture of risk avoidance than a culture of regulatory avoidance. People tend to fear paperwork more than risk. (People at, um, some medical companies will propose truly dangerous innovations - but - run screaming at the sort of study they'd need for justification. Sometimes regulation is probably good.)

    1203:

    I'd forgotten them ( The DH Twin-Otter ) YES! Or a very slightly larger 4-engined version? Definitely the way to go. Actually, it's the "Land_Rover" approach to aviation - isn't it?

    I suspect the design's longevity is because it's exactly at a sweet spot.

    First, it's big enough to make money. Note that the 12-passenger DC-2 was NOT big enough to support an airline. All of the early attempts at airlines, back in the 1930's, found that the DC-2 and its competitors weren't quite enough. It was the introduction of the 21-passenger DC-3 that made airlines viable. The Twin Otter carries 19.

    And second, it's small enough to be simple and rugged. For example, there are variants with floats, which kind of rules out using retractable landing gear. And notice that the National Geographic article I linked to, talks about operating at minus 75 fondly Fahrenheit. The Wikipedia article I linked to, has great photos of planes in silly places, like beaches. I've never seen a jet on a beach.

    I've never been in a Land Rover, so I can't speak to that. But I fly a simple, slow, rugged plane - a Maule - and yes, there are lots of pictures of Maules on beaches.

    1204:

    Had a friend who lived with his folks in Killeen, right next to Ft. Hood. I considered it really unlikely that their house would ever be burgled... he was an engineer in the SCA, and his full-sized trebuchet sat on his folks' front lawn.

    1205:

    Oops. Sorry, it's been a couple years since I listened. I sit corrected.

    1206:

    Ah, but you didn't mention Newseek suggesting that ICE had a serious IT security issue, given that they COULDN'T REDACT PROPERLY, and all Newsweek did was load the document into a word processor, and they saw where it was going to be located (RFt. Benning, GA), and how much....

    1207:

    In '14, my recent ex and I and my stepson came to the UK, the only time I've been off-continent, for Worldcon. Before the con, we put over 1k mi on the rental car in 8 days (yes, really).

    One of my absolutely favorite parts of the trip were the two days we spent in Aberystwyth. We rode the funicular railway, too.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqEhzYzUOFU

    1208:

    I see - of the US car company engineering training.

    Not an exaggeration. In the mid-eighties, waiting for the second transmission rebuilt on my Chevette (pronounced SHOVE IT), the guy helping his buddy at the trans shop and I got to talking, and he told me his son, in college for engineering, a class got specs for a design from one of the Big Three... and they were required to exactly meet specs, not to exceed them.

    But then, it's well-known that in the mid-twenties, Henry Ford sent men to the junkyards, to examine junked Model T's (I think it was) and report what had not worn out, so they could build those parts more cheaply.

    1209:

    I like the pipes.

    Back in the mid-seventies, I was at a con - Disclave? Balticon? and sharing the room with five others, one of whom was Janny Wurtz. Late Sat aft, I came back to the room, having been up to around 06:00, to nap. She came in, told me she was in a pipe and drum corps, and they had a competition that Monday, so would I mind if she practiced? I said no.

    Shortly after, there was a knock at the door; a fan, who'd been at the elevator 30' or 60' away, steel reinforced concrete building, and asked if she could come in and listen. I lay down again, and fell asleep to the pipes.

    1210:

    My late wife, doing research, picked up Mr. Kipling's Army, "This is an upstairs-downstairs view of the Victorian-Edwardian army, one of the world's most peculiar fighting forces" Covered the Napoleonic wars to WW I.

    My reaction, on reading it, was that if you were kidnapped by a time traveller, and pressed into that army, shoot yourself, it would be far less horrible.

    1211:

    Lithium is a bit rare. Confusingly the pronuclear camp often mention the extreme rarity of lithium, yet describe the supply of U235 in sea water as infinite. The concentration of Li in sea water is about 10 000 times higher than the "infinite" amount of U235.

    1212:

    You're pushing that. Frodo carried the Ring a long time, when it was fully active. Sam for only a little bit.

    1213:

    Isn't the ring some sort of metaphor for the burden of command or something? "one ring to rule them all" Which would mean a private wouldn't feel that burden much or for long?

    1214:

    There are cases where 'meet and do not exceed' makes sense. If you want to control failure, for example. The crumple zone in a car is designed to not fail under certain forces and to fail in others. Nuclear reactors might have the same kind of thing. Certain parts of the system made so that they will fail before another part. If somebody makes part A to good part X fails instead, and part X failing is way worse than part A.

    1215:

    @1181 Based on my observations in various places including USA and Ireland, when wind power shares space with farming the amount of land it occupies is the diameters of the towers plus a meter or less of weeds. Oh, ok, yeah, lots of such solutions happen, but they are tricky, I guess.

    @1199 Yayoi Sekine, energy storage analyst for BNEF and co-author of the report, said: “Two big changes this year are that we have raised our estimate of the investment that will go into energy storage by 2040 by more than $40 billion, and that we now think the majority of new capacity will be utility-scale, rather than behind-the-meter at homes and businesses.” Well, they are financial experts, they operate in investments, outcomes, demand-supply and so on, not physical solutions. This is a pressing matter - modern liberal market models operate on set of assumptions, they will actively seek and destroy alternative opinions so they wouldn't interfere with process of profiting on the deal.

    @1194 Pointing out that it's a panel, shows the panel, even specifies the colour of the frame, all that has no effect on you. Which of course will have no effect on me if you don't bother to point it out. In this case, I obviously pointed out that the calculations are wrong and should be corrected - which resulted in attempt to ignore them altogether.

    It's a belief not grounded in facts, and I've learned there's no evidence that can shift such a belief. It's pointless to try. Normally human belief does not need neither theory nor facts. However I am talking about theory - and if facts do not correspond to it then something is wrong. I don't need to ask people if they are trying to scam anyone, I ask where did it go wrong.

    @1198 Either way, others pointed out the error and he still proved impervious to clue, so just letting him dig deeper has been both necessary and depressing. The last outburst, a passionate lecture in the genre of teaching your grandmother to suck eggs, must surely be his last on the topic. I get it you did not accept my argument still, only parts of it. I also get it that people don't like lectures because they think they are too smart for them and can search all info by themselves. Well, I tell you that lectures are required to check the internal logic of the discussion from time to time, and there's no shame in this at all. Unless you try to avoid arguments altogether.

    1216:

    It isn’t about “liking” something, it’s about irony.

    1217:

    Ummmm.... why would anyone go to Boston? If you're visiting the U.S. just fly straight to California. (One-time exceptions may be made for Goths who wish to visit New Orleans.)

    1218:

    Uranium can be used to generate electricity, lithium can only realistically be used to store electricity something else generates (with conversion and storage losses in both directions). Comparing the abundance or otherwise of both elements in power utility terms is not really useful.

    1219:

    During the early seventies I lived under the flight paths for B-52s headed to Vietnam. Even a mile in the air those planes would shake your windows.

    1220:

    You missed my point. The original state was something like if you're ever in the US stop by. It is a BIG country. Greg could travel to the US and still only be about 1/2 of the way to that location.

    1221:

    During that time I was a kid living a couple of hours north of Fort Campbell. 101st Airborne. Periodically they would do low level training flights of groups of the planes used for parachute drops. I don't know how low they were but everyone sure did know when their route was over our neighborhood. 4 engine turboprops.

    Then there was the time my cousin (15 years old) buzzed the area (his parents lived less than a mile away) in his prop trainer. He was LOW. I could see a lot of details on his plane. Knowing him I sure he broke a pile of rules on that flight.

    1222:

    Slight change of subject but somewhat relevant.

    Just now my news feed from Google popped about the close flybys to occur.

    space.com headline 2 Asteroids Will Harmlessly Fly By Earth This Weekend. But NASA Will Wave Helo Anyway!

    express.co.uk headline Asteroid TERROR: NASA warns two monster rocks are hurtling towards Earth this weekend

    I can only imagine what people who read the Express as their source of news get about Brexit or anything else of substance.

    1224:

    "Comparing the abundance or otherwise of both elements in power utility terms is not really useful."

    Good thing I didn't then.

    1225:

    Dont @ 1199 Flow Batteries Iv'e been hearing they are coming "Real Soon Now" for the past 10 years at least - are they like fusion power, then? If so, it's a pity, because they seem as though they should be a really-good-enough solution. More information, please?

    @ 1203 Try this picture - Fords of Teifi - at least 3 or 4 miles to the nearest Tarmac.

    Erwin @ 1212 I'm pretty sure a sufficiently diligent police person could find an excuse to put most people in prison. Yes, well .. Richliieu: "If you give me six lines written by the hand of the most honest of men, I will find something in them which will hang him." So - nothing new there ...

    whitroth @ 1207 & 1209 Did you "do" the VoR 2-ft guage steam railway as well? If not, why not? "The Pipes" - referring back to Geo McD Fraser ... there's a couple of mention of "The Pipes" in the McAuslan stories, of course. "The General Danced at Dawn" comes to mind.

    Aircraft Noise output When visiting my paternal Grandmother in rural Lincolnshire, if I was in the village park, you got the fright of your life ( until one got used to it ) when several of these came over at less than 50 feet up - heading for the RN bomb-practice range, out in the fen saltings ... later superceded by Venoms & Vixens of course.

    1226:

    D'yareckon this is why some of the nuke kids here don't like pumped hydro? Bit hard to argue that we're gunna run outa water, especially coz pumped hydro can use seawater and the nuke kids haven't got their heads round that one yet?

    1227:

    The Wikipedia article I linked to, has great photos of [Twin Otter] planes in silly places, like beaches.

    Beaches are very practical landing areas for bush planes.

    Reading the article I learned that one can take a Twin Otter from Glasgow to a beach. No, not a beach resort near an airport; flights depart from Glasgow and arrive at Barra Airport, which is three strategically marked out bits of tidal beach in the Outer Hebrides. The field is active when the tide is out and underwater when the tide is in. I imagine this dis-incentivizes long delays before takeoff...

    Quoth the article: "The beach is also popular with visitors and cockle pickers, who are asked to observe the windsock to see if the airport is in operation."

    1228:

    I have trouble walking in their mental shoes at all. 16 hours without solar generation is totally beyond the pale. A ten year interruption for a refurbishment program is however quite acceptable, even "pretty good return on an investment". I'm stumped.

    The other thing that seems weird, if you place paperwork in the way of nuclear, you should be either shot or bankrupted. But suggest residential solar and it's "my home owners association wouldn't let me".

    However, running out of water has actually been put forward as an objection in this very thread (solved with trains full of rocks... really?)

    1229:

    There's also the Westray / Papa Westray flight ( Using BN Islander aircraft, not Otters ) Quote from the short wiki article: Flights on the route are scheduled for one and a half minutes, and actual flying time is closer to one minute. The record for the fastest flight is 53 seconds

    1230:

    Interesting. I thought that Bozo had managed to stay on the "not quite" side of a constitutional crisis, but this article implies that he has created a clear conflict between English and Scottish legal precedent.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-brexit-supreme-court-scotland-parliament-suspend-a9104446.html

    I will bet that the Supremes fudge this, and can think of several ways in which they could do so.

    1231:

    I still think storage is less of a problem, and an easier problem than people seem to be ready to accept. I am not saying that oversupply solves it, but it’s a prerequisite, because storage doesn’t make sense unless you have a surplus to store, and once you do have a surplus there are strong incentives to find useful things to do with it. At the moment the only real problem is that people might lose money building oversupply. Another “problem” that the right kind of creativity should be seeing as an opportunity.

    One reason hydro makes the most sense is because huge infrastructure projects really need to be relatively low tech moving forward. We can see what’s happening to the education and technical training sector just on the back of neoliberalism, without even feeling any impacts of the climate crisis, even in enlightened, chartist/social-democrat Australia. It is hard to see that getting better again. It’s possible I guess, just really unlikely.

    But the main reason is that we actually know that we can build hydro, we’ve been doing it for at least a century. We’ve had loads of opportunities to learn from the unfortunately plentiful negative examples involving catastrophic failure and there really is no reason to expect it to be any more of a technical challenge than any other infrastructure project. We need better grids that we more adaptable, more robust and less maintenance intensive. Can I saw lower tech, again? Even if it is not compatible with the other requirements at equal cost, though that last is the thing that has to move I guess.

    1232:

    However, running out of water has actually been put forward as an objection in this very thread (solved with trains full of rocks... really?)

    Gravity doesn't care what mass it's acting on, and NorAm west of the 100th meridian of descriptive meteorology can get, and is trending to get, very dry. ("no rain these five years", dry.) This is one of the risks with new hydroelectric projects; any hydro project is a bet on predictable rainfall, and that's something we really can't expect from the next century.

    The problem with gravity storage is that gravity is a weak force; you need an awful lot of mass and an awful lot of drop. Suitable geography isn't common.

    1233:

    Flow Batteries Iv'e been hearing they are coming "Real Soon Now" for the past 10 years at least

    https://redflow.com

    Possibly not available in your country, but definitely a COTS product these days. They're Australian and were quite taken aback when Elon Musk interrupted their long and detailed negotiations with the South Australian government to supply a battery.

    1234:

    "At the moment the only real problem is that people might lose money building oversupply"

    Yep. We've seen that in Australia where the government built oversupply (albeit coal) and then sold it to private hands who immediately turned off all the oversupply to force up the spot price. Private ownership of electricity infrastructure is incompatible with long term civilization.

    1235:

    why would anyone go to Boston?

    Because Boston and New York are the main bastions of civilization in the US?

    (Ducks and runs …)

    1236:

    Suitable geography isn't common.

    Define "common". If you mean "you can't just throw darts at a map" then no... but then dry land isn't common either. But if you mean something like "even if we built it everywhere we possibly can it wouldn't be visible in the 'stored electricity' stats" you're wildly wrong. Especially if the crazy Ozzie researchers get their pumped seawater stuff working (I think they got defunded though) it's going to be "some kind of hill, somewhere near the sea" which... there's a lot of that.

    It's worth noting that Far North Queensland is a bit like England in the hills department... they have them, but sadly they're located elsewhere :) Anyhoo, FNQ also has a pumped hydro facility, built out of a second hand mine site.

    When you grind down into the details, pumped hydro actually works better with a couple of hundred metres of fall, just because it gets tricky dealing with more head than that. And sure, countries exist where even 200m of head is hard to find, but they're not the 90% case or even the 10% case.

    As with so much of the discussion in this thread, there's no perfect answer and sometime you just have to settle for a solution that only solves 90% or even 50% of the problem.

    1237:

    I can only imagine what people who read the Express as their source of news get about Brexit or anything else of substance.

    The Daily Express is somewhere to the right of the Daily Mail (aka the Daily Heil), only every week they run something or other about the Spirit of Diana—they're obsessed with her. Also with house prices, things that do/don't give you cancer (often the same thing will be screamed about under each column less than six months apart), and something horrible some foreigners somewhere have done which proves the English are superior ("foreigners" can include the Welsh, Scottish, and Northern Irish).

    1238:

    What's amusing is that it's the coal plants that have big running costs, the marginal cost of wind and solar is close to zero. So when there is oversupply it's the "dispatchable" {cough} power plants that suffer because it takes them so long to ramp up and down. Without storage we end up with negative electricity prices from time to time.. the coal generators are literally paying people to take it away.

    You would think that it would be the coal fired owners who would be all over the storage argument and frantically building something so they don't have to suffer the very low slump prices that happen fairly regularly.

    Instead they prefer to buy subsidies by donating to nominally free-market political parties.

    1239:

    Spirit of Diana

    Is that what they ended up calling Boaty McBoatface?

    (I ask because down here we have a series of ferries called "Spirit of Tasmania 1" and "Spirit of Tasmania 2" (I presume the next one will be... waaaait for it... "Spirit of Tasmania 3"). And Sydney uses dead famous people for the catamaran ferries.)

    1240:

    Yes. In my youth, both were a bit jingoistic, but not too badly, and were centre-right (Express) and centre-left (Mail). As you say, the Daily Wail seems to have adopted the reliability of the National Enquirer with the bias of Fox News, but recently the Daily Retchpress has been trying to outdo it.National Enquirer wikipediaNational Enquirer wikipedia

    1241:

    However, he does make (or, rather, overstate) some points that are denied by the pro-solar camp. I remain skeptical that the claims of minimal environmental impact during manufacturing and disposal are more than polemic. No, I don't know what they are, but I have seen such claims many times before, including how easy it would be to dismantle and clean up the UK's nuclear plants. Until and unless I see some decent evidence - and, NO, mere claims by 'established experts' are NOT evidence on such a politicised issue - I shall remain skeptical.

    Let's ignore the detail that solar power prevents the land from being used for agriculture or wildlife, though it's not minor, but is pretty obvious. There is also a serious problem with distributed supply, which I saw an article about in some unreliable rag (but which I know to be real)- the environmental impact of the extra circuitry and switchgear. I haven't seen an analysis that factors THAT in, either.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulfur_hexafluoride

    We need a damn site more proper science and engineering in the planning of this area, and a damn sight less politics.

    1242:

    I don't know what the impact of first world solar cell manufacture is. I'd hope it's as regulated as any other silicon fab line. 3rd world manufacture is probably a bad as any other 3rd world manufacture. The glass and frames, I don't know but I'd guess the same as any other glass and window frame.

    SF6 has been used by the industry for a long time. It was even used to fill the points and magnetos housings on WW2 radial aircraft engines. The graphs I've seen of atmospheric levels seem close to linear, which implies a constant leakage. If the reports of a renewables lead SF6 apocalypse were true, then you'd see an exponential growth in line with the exponential growth in renewables. It needs to be sorted, but it's not a 'renewables' problem as such.

    1243:

    What's amusing is that it's the coal plants that have big running costs, the marginal cost of wind and solar is close to zero. Sometimes governments want to pursue secondary goals like industrialization and employment of people, because while some new tech may be more "exciting" for their effects, they are also a driving force for unemployment and capital movement. Sometimes these secondary goals are much more important than primary ones.

    So when there is oversupply it's the "dispatchable" {cough} power plants that suffer because it takes them so long to ramp up and down. Without storage we end up with negative electricity prices from time to time.. the coal generators are literally paying people to take it away. I was taught that coal powered stations are relatively easy to regulate at moderate pace of 10-20 minutes, while nuclear stations aren't really usable for that - it is downright dangerous or damaging and takes hours if not days. Hydropower is maneuvered in minutes, and batteries and other more electric solutions are available within seconds but they are really expensive for that reason. I'm relieved that more people get the regulation issue, years ago I wouldn't even expect to find such understanding (not in the media, anyway).

    1244:

    You reminded me of a Chevette story, allegedly some GM engineers thought that a hot hatch could be a nice thing and they had an idea or two about making a Chevette interesting, mostly involving a 2.8 FI and a 5 speed. A C level suit wanted to drive it before deciding, but couldn't drive stick*, so it had to have an automatic installed before he could reject the idea.

    *The idea that someone in charge of a car company would know so little about cars could explain some of Detroit's difficulties.

    1245:

    Let's ignore the detail that solar power prevents the land from being used for agriculture In Germany they are investigating farming on lands with solar panels elevated 5 meters above ground level. According to https://www.engineering.com/ElectronicsDesign/ElectronicsDesignArticles/ArticleID/16073/Agrophotovoltaics-Solar-Farms-that-Produce-Food-and-Electricity.aspx they managed 80% of the wheat harvest and 80% of electricity generation compared to dedicated farming land and solar power plant, respectively.

    1246:

    It was called the HS2300. Standard Chevette body with a Ventora 2.3 litre slant four in it. Went like buggery. There was an R version which was even faster. Never sold very many of them though. I've seen about one on the road, but zillions of ordinary Chevettes.

    (Pretty sure the British/German Chevette was the same thing as the US one. Certainly the nickname was the same.)

    1247:

    No, you have missed the point. Let's ignore the facts that linear growth of something that is not naturally degraded at all is really bad news in itself, and that it has increased simultaneously with renewable energy (so there MIGHT be causality, even if it seems unlikely). But that wasn't the issue; I can't vouch for the truth of this, but its assuredly plausible.

    The article asserted that distributed generation requires significally more (and distributed) high-voltage switchgear than centralised generation, and solar power is almost unavoidably highly distributed in many places. We are also talking of moving China, India and countries even less cautious than they are to such power, and more distributed switchgear is harder to detect and stop leaks in (in practice), anyway, both of which will assuredly increase the rate of leakage.

    It's not an inherent result, certainly, but it needs to be included in the costs and remedied if important. What I am skeptical about is that any of the claimed low environmental impact analyses have taken account of such secondary effects - and I am damned certain that the majority of the claims are mere polemic, so obviously haven't.

    1248:

    We didn't get anything like that here, just either a 1.4 or 1.6 with very little power, though it did wonders for the self-esteem of owners of other small cars...

    1249:

    why would anyone go to Boston?

    Because Boston and New York are the main bastions of civilization in the US? (Ducks and runs …)

    But it is an app reply.

    Foreign visitors to the US visit these 3 cities most often. NYC, Las Vegas, and Orlando (Disney et al). Which has to lead to a very warped view of the US from the west of the world.

    NYC isn't a bad place. I just spend 3 days there walking the city. (Well large chunks of Manhattan and part of Brooklyn. First time there in 30 years. But representative of the rest of the US it is not. And yes I've been in Las Vegas and Orlando at various times both at the vacation/convention locations and also just around the city. Those places are just nuts.

    Anyway Boston is reasonably close to sane and typical to the rest of the US. Well except for that accent. :)

    1250:

    And the drivers. Shudder. Don't get me started on Boston drivers … !

    1251:

    I was taught that coal powered stations are relatively easy to regulate at moderate pace of 10-20 minutes, while nuclear stations aren't really usable for that - it is downright dangerous or damaging and takes hours if not days.

    You seem to be conflating marginal cost reasons for turning things off and on with technical abilities of the tech involved.

    Nuclear is left running because there is almost no marginal costs but payroll for the staff. It is the first on and last off when it is available.

    Gas is a fast spin up and down[1] as it SHOULD be easy to fire up and down the boilers.

    Coal is harder to ramp up and down due to the fuel not being in a nice form to just "toss into the flame". (They grind it up into a fine powder and inject that almost like gas as a simplistic explanation.) And there is a LOT of mechanical work to get the coal from the outside mountain of burnable rock to the flame in the boiler. Just the delivery of coal to the site is a big undertaking of 1 to 3 very long trains arriving and unloading per day. And just in time delivery of coal is not really workable when a train that large is coming from 1000 miles away.

    Much of my source for this is a friend who's an engineering executive at one of the larger power companies in the US.

    They have a lot of all 3 of these plant types. Except for return on investment they'd love to ditch all coal plants. But it works and is cheap in large operations if you don't have to worry too much about shutdown costs. Building a new coal plant requires a lot of land somewhere away from people, a big source of water, and decent rail access. Harder and harder to come by these days.

    Oh, and as coal goes away in various areas for power generation where there are pollution controls expect the cost of wallboard/gyp board/drywall to go up. Most plants for such have been located literally next door to coal plants for the last 40 years as the scrubber output is perfect feed stock for their operations.

    [1] There are always exceptions. Someone here posted in the last month or so about that gas fired plant out in the western US that was being shut down due to being designed for continuous running and was not really able to ramp up or down quickly enough for today's world.

    1252:

    I haven't been there for years. Since before the big dig that made the roads a lot more sane. But back in the day it was more of survival of the fittest than getting from point A to B.

    1253:

    express.co.uk headline Asteroid TERROR: They've been doing this for a while, and it's amazingly formulaic. Just have somebody watch the source data, e.g. NEO Earth Close Approaches - Close Approach Data (click on column to sort) or if really lazy, go to the colour-coded table at https://spaceweather.com/ They may use a different but similar source. The v relative and diameter are a tiny (in head, even) calculation away from TNT equivalent. The writer might be better-paid that a median astronomer. Or maybe they're an unpaid bot. :-)

    Re water and Graydon's reminder that rainfall patterns will be changing, Alaska Villages Run Dry And Residents Worry 'If This Is Our Future Of No Water' (September 14, 2019, Renee Gross) Residents are desperately trying to conserve water in the Native village of Nanwalek, located on Alaska's Kenai Peninsula south of Anchorage. The village, home to the Sugpiaq tribe, is currently in a severe drought.

    That area has plenty of terrain suitable for pumped storage.

    1254:

    Ha, our cooking version was a 1256cc, in trim levels from basic to very basic. They were actually pretty decent small cars, compared to the other major models of similar size - perfectly adequate to keep up with the traffic, surprisingly spacious inside, reasonably reliable and easy to work on, better made than a Ford Escort and fitted with a Stromberg carb so not subject to the Ford won't-start-in-the-morning problem, and not just generally a standing joke like the Austin Allegro. What they were not was exciting. People who wanted exciting went for Fords, because any combination of Ford mechanical parts would bolt straight into any of Ford's tinfoil bodyshells, and the HS2300 was an attempt to gain some of that crowd's interest which didn't work.

    1255:

    More Brexit bad news?

    Someone has stolen the solid 18-carat gold toilet from Blenheim Palace.

    https://www.cnn.com/style/article/uk-blenheim-palace-gold-toilet-scli-gbr-intl/index.html

    1256:

    I always saw it as a metaphor or addiction.

    1257:

    Oh? I've heard of someone with a taste for gold crappers... though he might have an alibi, for once.

    1258:

    I've been posting here for awhile. I think Greg knows I'm in California and I have no doubt that should he be inclined to drop by he's smart enough to contact me before buying tickets.

    1259:

    Meh. Pull the other one.

    1260:

    You tripped one of my bugaboos with many people from Europe not really understanding just how big the country is.

    Talking to an 18 year old hotel front desk clerk in Germany last December he mentioned he really wanted to visit the US. When I ask where he said Los Angeles. In my somewhat limited understanding of how German's get a drivers license I asked if he could drive. "No". I tried to explain that visiting LA without renting a car can be a real limited experience. He didn't get it. He mentioned visiting various places there that were each 20 to 30 miles from the other. I didn't argue the point but did suggest that a solo traveler without a car might want to visit NYC or Boston or similar.

    I'm in the Dallas / Fort Worth area a lot and if running errands I can easily driver 100 miles on a Saturday. One Saturday I drove 180 miles. Uber/Lyft would bankrupted me that day.

    I LIKE the German rail and major city bus systems. They work. Madrid also. NYC and Boston work. Miami seemed to work in my limited experience. But most of the US doesn't have such.

    1261:

    Because Boston and New York are the main bastions of civilization in the US?

    I have noticed an increasing number of the people I know in California referring to places in the eastern part of the US as "out East". I assume that this derives from the phrases "out West" and "back East", used a century or more ago to indicate Eastern dominance of civilization/culture/etc, and to suggest a perceived reversal of those roles.

    Wandering into the weeds of US politics, one of the problems the Democratic Party faces nationally is that in the eastern wing of the party, "urban problems" usually means collapsed urban cores, declining populations, loss of jobs, etc. In the western wing of the party, "urban problems" almost exclusively means nearly unmanageable growth of people and jobs.

    1262:

    Someone here posted in the last month or so about that gas fired plant out in the western US that was being shut down due to being designed for continuous running and was not really able to ramp up or down quickly enough for today's world.

    Since the 1990s or so both Siemens and GE have been selling gas-fired turbines intended for base load generation. The maintenance trigger isn't so much how long the turbine has been running, as how many times it's been spun up and down. Typically those are incorporated into combined-cycle plants, where the exhaust gas is used to boil water for a steam turbine, with combined thermal efficiency approaching 60%. But they're not particularly well suited for load following.

    1263:

    You seem to be conflating marginal cost reasons for turning things off and on with technical abilities of the tech involved. Nah, that would be a hair-splitting at this point, you don't need to disengage the entire boiler if you can regulate the output in nominal parameters mode, though of course it costs more than hydropower. See, when in winter, you just can't allow the heating to go down, so they are regulating power by redistribution of energy through wider networks that are better regulated. It most be somewhat different in warmer seasons and regions...

    You know, I was taken to excursion on one of my university lessons to local cogeneration plants we have in my city - BUT it was converted from coal many years ago. I was kind of surprised to find out that a lot of our power plants actually run on gas since I got used to the sight of coal chimney stacks back in the days. But then again with such amount of gas exports it shouldn't be surprising that a lot of older coal plants were decommissioned without anyone noticing. Most of the remaining areas with them are located in Siberia closer to the deposits. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuznetsk_Basin https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants That's a lot of coal, TBH, I expected much less.

    1264:

    During the early seventies I lived under the flight paths for B-52s headed to Vietnam. Even a mile in the air those planes would shake your windows.

    Not the loudest I ever heard, but the most startling...

    I learned to drive in an area where there was a modest bluff. At the bottom of the bluff, along the little river, was a four-lane highway. At the top of the bluff was the end of the runway for a US Air Force base with a B-52 wing. In a car with the windows rolled up, you didn't hear the planes coming until they popped over the edge of the bluff. There were signs posted along the highway as you approached that read, "Caution, sudden loud jet aircraft noise possible." You learned to relax your grip on the wheel, because if a B-52 with all eight engines wound up came over the edge, you were going to jerk.

    1265:

    EC @ 1249 NO The "Express" was a Beaverbrook paper ... always well to the right, often further right that the Mail especially during the 1930's ... which should tell you something?

    Troutwaxer THANK YOU for the implied invite ... but I doubt that I will ever set foot in the USofA ....

    1266:

    To get the scale thing across to people, you need to explain that what Americans call "suburbia" is "open countryside" in Europe. If they've even heard of exurbs, say "it's people who live 50km from the nearest convenience store."

    New England is European-scale and easier to grasp, but flyover country is just … weird. Again, to get it across I like to mention a sign I saw on the trans-Canada highway: "next fuel 300km".

    (I've done some road trips in the US and Canada; never tried crossing the big empty in the middle, though.)

    1267:

    whitroth @ 1204: Had a friend who lived with his folks in Killeen, right next to Ft. Hood. I considered it *really* unlikely that their house would ever be burgled... he was an engineer in the SCA, and his full-sized trebuchet sat on his folks' front lawn.

    Killeen is a nice town once you get away from the parts of it that are dedicated to separating the troops at Ft. Hood from their pay. My problem with Ft. Hood is it's where I got Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever.

    We were down there in 1988 for extended training (8 weeks of AT - 56 days rather than the usual 15). I found a tick during daily tick checks & went to the medics to have it removed (as per SOP). Ten days later I started feeling sick with "flu like" symptoms. Since it was also the last day of our training period, I got all my shit packed up & ready to go as quickly as I could and then went to bed.

    Next thing I remember is being in the E.R. at Darnall Army Hospital (although I have brief flashes of what must have been the ambulance ride to get me there). I remember because the doctor needed me conscious so I could sign the release for them to do a Lumbar Puncture (aka Spinal Tap). Ft. Hood had a soldier admitted earlier with Viral Meningitis & they needed the fluid for diagnostics. That was over 30 years ago, and I still remember it as the most painful experience of my life.

    The First Sergent came and dragged me out of the E.R. at about 4:30am to get me on the plane taking us back to Raleigh, where they just dumped us out on the tarmac at the opposite end of the airport from where our armory was located with a "Bye. See y'all next month" ... leaving us to our own devices to find a way back to where our cars were parked; about a two mile trudge with my ruck, duffel bag and a 103° fever.

    I had to go to my own doctor on Monday morning, with a blazingly high fever & a headache worse than any migraine I've ever had. ... and on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday ... until on Friday the doctor prescribed something for the pain. I took one of them as soon as I got home and it knocked me out.

    When I awoke on Sunday, the fever and the pain were both finally gone.

    The upshot was neither the Army, nor the National Guard would pay my medical bills and my civilian insurance, Blue-Cross/Blue Shield, wouldn't either because I contracted the illness while on active military duty.

    We went back to Fort Hood during Desert Storm, and that was a whole 'nother BOHICA even worse than the screwing I got in '88

    Nothing wrong with Killeen, it's Fort Hood itself that I can't stand.

    1268:

    In European terms, the drive from Los Angeles to New York is roughly equivalent to the drive from Madrid to Budapest.

    The Great Plains are not exciting, but if you ever get the chance, take I-15 from Southern California to I-70 and head for Colorado. That's a gorgeous drive, particularly if you're into geology!

    1269:

    whitroth @ 1208: I see - of the US car company engineering training.

    Not an exaggeration. In the mid-eighties, waiting for the second transmission rebuilt on my Chevette (pronounced SHOVE IT), the guy helping his buddy at the trans shop and I got to talking, and he told me his son, in college for engineering, a class got specs for a design from one of the Big Three... and they were required to exactly meet specs, not to exceed them.

    But then, it's well-known that in the mid-twenties, Henry Ford sent men to the junkyards, to examine junked Model T's (I think it was) and report what had not worn out, so they could build those parts more cheaply.

    It's like the old "joke" ...

    Q: Why does Chevrolet put a $2.00 jack in the trunk of a $3,000 Impala? (I did say it was an OLD joke.)

    A: Because the warehouse ran out of $1.00 jacks.

    1270:

    _Moz_ @ 1226: D'yareckon this is why some of the nuke kids here don't like pumped hydro? Bit hard to argue that we're gunna run outa water, especially coz pumped hydro can use seawater and the nuke kids haven't got their heads round that one yet?

    Salt water is corrosive, something to be religiously avoided around nuclear power plants ...

    OTOH, the two pumped storage hydro plants I know are supplementary to nuclear power plants. The reactors are run as close to a steady state as possible and when demand is less than the nuclear plant's output, the excess capacity is used to pump fresh-water up hill. Then when demand peaks above what the nuclear plant is putting out, the pumped storage is used to drive the turbines like any other hydro-electric plant.

    Why do you keep insisting it must be Either/Or when having BOTH works just fine?

    1271:

    I've driven between Texas and NC twice. About 19 hours of pure driving. Tedious. The second time I got smarter and left at midnight, slept at a motel during the next day then drove all night after that. Missed all of the rush hours of the cities I drove through.

    I do a drive that is 7 1/2 hours each way every summer. At times it can turn into 10 hours if things happen. I would fly but you "can't get there from here" without lots of layovers. So about the same time plus no car when you get to the middle of nowhere PA.

    The prettiest drive I've done was last year up the Pacific Coast Highway from San Francisco to Portland with an inland side trip to Crater Lake and Bend Or. We took old coastal road till we turned east. Beautiful.

    Driving from Mesa Verdi to Monument Valley to the Grand Canyon was also, ah, different. But striking. Just watch for cows. It's open range out there and if you hit one it is your fault and you get to pay for the cow in addition to the damages to your car.

    1272:

    British pumped hydro storage was built to buffer overnight nuclear generating capacity as it was originally planned back in the 1970s. The two big pumped-hydro stations, Dinorwig and Cruachan would accumulate a few GWh of surplus output as demand fell from the daytime office and factory and domestic demands and feed it back into the grid in a predictable manner the next day as the load picked up again.

    In the end we got rid of coal, praise be to Maggie Thatcher but the AGRs turned out to be lemons for assorted reasons and the one PWR (Sizewell B) that got built was, well, one PWR rather than the first learning exercise before we built a couple of dozen or more identical units. Nowadays we burn cheap gas like a bandit and pretend the wind turbines and solar panels that front-page the slobbering Press articles actually keep the lights on.

    1273:

    Charlie Stross @ 1235:

    "why would anyone go to Boston?"

    Because Boston and New York are the main bastions of civilization in the US?

    (Ducks and runs …)

    Har! You think that because you've never been to North Carolina.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yx_LHSrjsCg

    1274:

    Two issues with AGRs; firstly, they didn't build enough of them (6? or 8? total if I recall, and 600MW each) so no real economies of scale, and secondly, the thing about cracks developing in the graphite bricks over a period of decades which is progressing faster than predicted and can't be fixed. That being the killer: to address it they'd need to develop a version 2.0 AGR, and there's simply no funding for that—the UK nuclear industry's supply chain of new nuclear engineers all but shut down after Hinkley B and only began to start turning out new graduates a decade ago.

    Which meant of course that contracts for new PWRs or EPRs had to go to overseas engineering outfits like GE or EDF that still maintained the expertise to do that, so cost more, and the financing of them is remarkably opaque—not to say corrupt—and dodgy.

    The UK still builds reactors, but they're naval ones for the submarine fleet and (Nojay knows this) utterly unsuitable for civilian power production. (An order of magnitude too small and they run on munitions-grade HEU.)

    1275:

    Pigeon @ 1245: It was called the HS2300. Standard Chevette body with a Ventora 2.3 litre slant four in it. Went like buggery. There was an R version which was even faster. Never sold very many of them though. I've seen about one on the road, but zillions of ordinary Chevettes.

    (Pretty sure the British/German Chevette was the same thing as the US one. Certainly the nickname was the same.)

    The standard Chevrolet Chevette (4-spd manual) was a pretty peppy car itself.

    1276:

    Please at least TRY to read what I say before responding!

    1277:

    I used to drive from Nottingham and/or Cambridge to Salisbury before the M25 was built, which meant negotiating the north circular (and that was before it was improved) - or, as I described it, the largest unregulated dodgem track in Europe. Parisian drivers don't worry me nor, from observation, would Roman or Bostonian ones. Just abandon your sanity and survival instinct, and all is well ....

    1278:

    They built twelve AGRs, I think, two in each plant and no pair identical to any other pair which also didn't help. They had other problems such as the planned ability to refuel on the run to reduce downtimes didn't actually work as it turned out that vibration and other problems made it too dangerous. At best the reactor needed to be dialled down to about 70% of power for refuelling and generally it was easier to operate them like PWRs, given the expanding regulatory environment demanding more and more deep inspections of core structures.

    The Wigner Effect was known about, there had been quite a few high-flux carbon-moderated reactors built for weapons material production purposes but the neutron-induced cracks were believed to be self-healing due to heat. However this turned out not to be true when the core was made much larger as in the AGR design. The Soviet-era RBMK-4 design (actually larger than the AGRs, usually producing about 1GW) also suffered from this cracking problem but their design, being less energy efficient than the racecar AGRs meant the operators could recut the cores in place to ensure the control rods wouldn't get wedged due to distortion of the graphite blocks. The ten operational RMBK-4s have all been reworked and relicenced to run for assorted periods (most will reach end-of-life over then ext ten years or so). The only fix for the AGRs would be to completely recore them with new graphite blocks which is not going to happen.

    1279:

    "The prettiest drive I've done was last year up the Pacific Coast Highway from San Francisco to Portland...

    That's a great drive, but if you've really got a ton of time, start in Morro Bay and get on Highway 1, then hit Monterey for lunch and go north on 1 from there. My uncle used to own a place called "King Salmon Resort," up by Klamath, which he ran for around 30 years until the dam effed things up and the salmon stopped coming. The river's about six-inches deep now.

    1280:

    An ironic quote from Edward Spencer-Churchill in the Guardian: Ahead of the toilet’s installation, the duke’s half-brother, Edward Spencer-Churchill, founder of the Blenheim Art Foundation, said last month the lavatory wouldn’t be “the easiest thing to nick”.

    “Firstly, it’s plumbed in and secondly, a potential thief will have no idea who last used the toilet or what they ate,” he told the Times. “So no, I don’t plan to be guarding it.”

    1281:

    Charlie Stross @ 1265: To get the scale thing across to people, you need to explain that what Americans call "suburbia" is "open countryside" in Europe. If they've even heard of exurbs, say "it's people who live 50km from the nearest convenience store."

    New England is European-scale and easier to grasp, but flyover country is just … weird. Again, to get it across I like to mention a sign I saw on the trans-Canada highway: "next fuel 300km".

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Dgre8lCC3_s/VcleA8v6muI/AAAAAAAAPM0/001rZ3vzrZc/s1600/IMG_8404.JPG

    (I've done some road trips in the US and Canada; never tried crossing the big empty in the middle, though.)

    When I was a child my family did two coast to coast road trips (Durham, NC to Los Angeles AND back). The first trip in 1960 was while "Route 66" was still the main drag from Chicago to Los Angeles (U.S. 70 & U.S. 64 from Durham to Tulsa where we picked up "66").

    On the second trip in 1964, I-85 got us most of the way to Atlanta, & it was a combination of I-20, U.S. 70, U.S. 60 & I-10 westbound and mostly I-40 eastbound. That second trip was also made in the first car my family owned that had air conditioning.

    As an adult, I've made the trip driving out to Colorado/Utah/Arizona/New Mexico three times, all in this century (2005, 2007 & 2013). I have been to Florida twice, once to see Apollo XVII liftoff & once to see the Space Shuttle ... and a third trip in between (also in 2005) to see Everglades National Park. I stayed at the Flamingo Lodge there before Hurricanes Katrina & Wilma destroyed the structure in late 2005.

    1282:

    Why do you keep insisting it must be Either/Or when having BOTH works just fine?

    How you read my insistence on picking appropriate solutions for the actual situation as that I do not know. What I've been doing is arguing that in situations I actually know about nuclear has never been a sane solution. I have literally written "This comes back to the when, where and how question. If you have to live north of the arctic circle then yes, solar power is demonstrably a bad idea. For some distance south of there it's not as good as other options. But where the other 70% of the population lives it's entirely practical." @781 above.

    But hell, you imagine whatever you like and verbal me as much as you please. I can't stop you, and I can barely think less of you.

    1283:

    Gene mods that were supposed to make mosquitoes sterile didn't and couldn't, so now there's a wild population with the modification and they appear to be just as good at carrying disease as the ones they were supposed to wipe out. "we didn't think that would be a problem" said the scientists concerned.

    I can't wait to see how the GM fans cast any use of this to argue against releasing GMOs into the wild as "fear of the imaginary" and "worried about something that can never happen".

    https://www.dw.com/en/genetically-modified-mosquitoes-breed-in-brazil/a-50414340

    1284:

    That's a great drive, but if you've really got a ton of time, start in Morro Bay and get on Highway 1, then hit Monterey

    Without going into too much detail we tried the LA to SF via Highway 1 a year ago. It wasn't fun due to rental car hassles. John Wayne airport car rental they gave us the car without the electronic key. And the loop back to get the key cost us 3 or 4 hours due to traffic changes between 1st and 2nd departures. Second day I noticed a few minutes after we got going that the various analog gauges on the dash had all stopped working. Another few hours of delay in middle of the day. Oh well. We DID find a great sea food place just north of Big Sur. But we gave up and just drove to the SF airport and went home a day early.

    1285:

    Let's ignore the detail that solar power prevents the land from being used for agriculture or wildlife, though it's not minor, but is pretty obvious.

    Obvious, but wrong. To re-post # 1195:

    There have been a bunch of articles lately about solar sharing space with farming, eg this one or this.

    1286:

    Flow Batteries Iv'e been hearing they are coming "Real Soon Now" for the past 10 years at least - are they like fusion power, then? If so, it's a pity, because they seem as though they should be a really-good-enough solution. More information, please?

    Several companies have products for sale. Redflow uses zinc bromide, ESS Inc uses iron chloride, there's at least one vanadium flow battery for sale. Plus a zoo of startups and researchers who collectively aren't ready to ship.

    The obvious attraction is that naively, you can scale up the tankage, until the price per kWh approaches the price of the liquid(s). And, density doesn't matter, since the target market is the grid, not cars. And, degradation isn't as fast as with Lithium. (Well, one researcher admits to a degradation problem, but his electrolyte is a technology outlier.)

    The disadvantage is that their competitor, lithium, is already there, and is riding a 20%/year cost reduction curve.

    @ 1203 Try this picture - Fords of Teifi - at least 3 or 4 miles to the nearest Tarmac. Paywalled?

    1287:

    Wrong and not even obvious, really: requires a slightly bloody-minded insistence that things be done in a particular way and sticking with a misunderstanding that in agriculture, all the available land is for growing your cash crop (something that isn’t even true on small crowded islands with limited growing seasons).

    We’ve done thread digressions about enclosed agriculture here before, I’m not sure we’ve done ones about shaded agriculture.

    1288:

    I didn't see that in the grid I worked in. There was pretty much a freeze on grid upgrades for political reasons since about 2007. So as little as possible done since then (budget cuts have got harsher since then with mass sackings this year). Meanwhile residential solar has gone from a few hundred customers to about 200 000 in that network of 800 000 customers. Plus a handful of small gridscale farms, with their attached small switch yards. Most of the extra switching equipment I saw was feeder duplication. There were a few towns fed from one line, with the inevitable result that they had lots of blackouts. So from the hundreds of existing switchyards we might have an extra 5 as a result of renewables? (I don't have actual figures, that's a guess at the maximum). There would have been an order of magnitude more added to support new loads like shopping centres.

    1289:

    And we have a poll done after the latest Brexit fun (the prorogue of Parliament, the Scottish Court loss for Boris) and nothing has effectively changed, though some interesting data - courtesy Opinium/Observer.

    The Tories are up by 2%, so nothing happening to Boris is denting the voter intentions in a bad way, while Labour remains at 25%

    Most damaging for Labour / Corbyn, 19% of Labour leave voters intend to vote for Boris.

    Quote from the article - "poll suggests many voters are unclear about Labour's Brexit stance while the Liberal Democrats are seen as having an unambiguous policy"

    Also not looking good for the future election, amongst Brexit Party voters Boris has a 71% approval while Corbyn is at 2% so no hope of taking votes from them for Labour while Boris has a chance to increase his lead over Labour by converting some of those Brexit votes.

    1290:

    My reading of your posts is that you’ve generally been pretty careful to say you don’t think solar is for everyone and every place, and that other things are needed. The very comment JBS replied to here included such a caveat. So I’m not sure where that is coming from other than a kind of “there are good people on both sides” bias (several of the pro-nuke folks seem to be insisting that it is indeed the only solution and holding the anti-nuclear movement from 40+ years ago responsible for the climate crisis retrospectively, against all evidence).

    The interesting thing to point out here because it probably gets missed a bit in the noise is the basic spherical geometry: half of the surface of a sphere is in the 30-degree or less of latitude band. For the earth it is slightly more due to the shape being flattened at the poles and bulging around the equator. Roughly 2/3 is under 42 degrees and less than 1/4 is above 50 degrees. I can see how this is non-obvious and even a bit perverse for people growing up used to Mercator projection maps that show enormous Arctic and Antarctic bands, but it is in fact the case.

    Population is also further disproportionately located in lower latitudes, though I concede that surface of the sphere doesn’t equate to land mass. The point is that solar is a reasonable pathway for a lot of the planet, really quite a larger proportion of it that apparently accepted here.

    1291:

    South of SF, Highway 1 is picturesque but okay. North of SF … don't do it if you're on a schedule and especially don't EVER do it in a Lincoln Town Car.

    (I made that mistake. What can I say? I was badly advised!)

    Highway 1 north of SF is probably best experienced on a motorbike, if you can ride one.

    1292:

    We had a schedule and it was OK. But not over scheduled. But we were used to driving on the right and I had driven curvy twisty sort of mountain roads before.

    Biggest schedule issues are the periodic 1 lane sections due to landslide repairs. And a bit may be closed creating a 50+ mile detour. The state highway department is good about updating where things are closed or 1 lane.

    We had a Ford small (by US standards) SUV hybrid and got 45mpg which was great for all the curves and up and down.

    In a town car with a left side of road driver, anyone on a motorbike was lucky to have missed you. [grin]

    1293:

    Again, to get it across I like to mention a sign I saw on the trans-Canada highway: "next fuel 300km".

    There's a stretch of the Trans-Canada north of Superior where -- for about 300 km -- there is no radio reception because you're too far from anybody broadcasting to pick it up with standard equipment.

    In 1996 I moved 300 km west from a small city on the north shore of a lake to a much larger city on the north shore of a lake. Same lake. (In most respects, that lake is the little one.)

    Seeing the Thames in London for the first time was a bit of a croglement because it's so much smaller in physical actuality than it is in history.

    1294:

    I heard on the news this morning that the Houthis had managed to strike deep into Saudi Arabia with some drones. The news said that they did quite a bit of damage to an oilfield.

    OGH mentioned it just now in his twitter feed: "Reminder: a "drone" in this context means a homebrew cruise missile, not your camera-toting quadrotor toy. The Houthis fired a bunch in this strike.

    "Saudi Arabia is shutting down half its oil production. That's how serious this is."

    So non-state actors are able to use cruise missiles that are only a few steps away from DIY. Happy happy joy joy. Asymmetric warfare got slightly less asymmetric.

    It's hard to say "good" in the case of warfare - but the Saudis are doing outright genocide in Yemen. So the Yemenis who are getting killed are now getting to kill Saudis. Will this get the Saudis to stop, or start to negotiate? My (completely uninformed) hot-take: nope. More killing, more death.

    1295:

    Wow. What David said about left-side of the road drivers. And a Lincoln Towncar is definitely not the right vehicle. But imagine doing it with something smaller and plenty of time on your schedule.

    Highway 1 is definitely not the place. We last did the ride in a 1995 Saturn wagon, and it was wonderful except that we got to Eureka after 300 miles of hairpin turns and I discovered that there was a bubble the size of a golf-ball sticking out of one of the tires, with another 150 miles of hairpin turns ahead of us... SHUDDER.

    Our worst "mountain road" story came from the U.K. in 1979, where my father was driving something the size of a Toyota Tercel up a one-lane (single carriageway) mountain road somewhere between the U.K. and Scotland. There was a lorry coming down the mountain road. And some hot-rodder drove right down the center of the road, between our car and the Lorry, at something like 90 miles an hour.

    My father pulled off the road and just twitched for about ten minutes, because his family had come so very close to making the news, and not in a good way!

    1296:

    What I noticed about the strike is that the Houthi mentioned the help of 'honest people' in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi security services must be very annoyed tonight!

    1297:

    It may be time for anyone who's serious about what their politics might look like to reread "Islands in the Net."

    1298:

    No-one reads it anymore, but hey-ho, might want to look at the societal level nuclear blast stuff hitting on the A D L.

    Look up, the tools are there to turn it into something positive. Dumb fucks won't, scream "TROOOLLL".

    Last free-bee to you fucking ignorant and frankly insulting wankers whose morality is no bigger than the fucking liberal sphere they live in:

    You hit up the anti-ICE brigades (nice work, solidarity), you tie in some religious stuff and you STOP SUPPORTING THE AUTHORITARIAN ASSHOLES.

    Hint: 80% of American Jewish people won't, because they're basically fascists if you did hard enough.

    Shocked? Then fucking prove us wrong.

    You're about 3 years from full stuff, annnnnnnnnd.... IL is a Russian Puppet state run by Mafia. So, you know, might not want to fuck yourselves totally in the head.

    Here's another one:

    "The madder the hulk gets, the stronger the hulk gets."

    Homo Sapiens Sapiens actually misunderstood what the Dragon was.

    Boris is not talking about the HULK. He's not even making a shit metaphor that Brexit Party = Rage.

    He's talking about a specific Wave-Length / [redacted] event which they totally fucked up.

    We. Are. Not. The. Dragon.

    Anyhow, science twats and muppets: grep up, already proved we can SLOOOOW Cat 5 stuff down. Or pre-run entire societal level stuff,

    "We don't believe"

    Get absolutely fucked.

    "No answers"

    We're NOT ALLOWED TO DO IT FOR YOU, OR YOU LOSE YOUR FUCKING FREE WILL.

    ~

    Anyhow.

    You were given fair warning. Absolute toss pots.

    1299:

    We. Are. Not. The. Dragon.

    Sorry, that was a lie.

    We are.

    And we're really fucking beyond your shitty stuff / gaslight / EMF tinkering shit.

    Look above.

    If you're a scientist and do the research, we just broke your "LAWS"... again.

    !SPANG!

    Enjoy the Elf-fuck: it's long, hard, bitter and really nasty at the end. We did warn you, and yet.... arrogant fucks don't listen.

    Oh, and April - wings are fine, the two little cunts who tried to cut them off, well... their Minds didn't survive.

    And we're killing off all their clients / servants / bound slaves.

    ~

    Cock-Goblins.

    1300:

    "sUcH a tRoLl NeVeR hElPs Us UnDeRStAnD"

    Tehran is behind nearly 100 attacks on Saudi Arabia while Rouhani and Zarif pretend to engage in diplomacy. Amid all the calls for de-escalation, Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply. There is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.

    https://twitter.com/secpompeo/status/1172963090746548225

    Why the holy fuck would we bother to share stuff (which we've done, anyhow, and zero fucking understanding reached) when you're the .mil / spook stuff who have the contacts to you know, maybe take the edge of this stuff, but it's all SF and you think FUCKING COLONIAL WORLDS ARE STILL HAPPENING.

    a) They're not

    b) As a Dragon, we're a little pissed off at, well, you attempting to break our Mind and so on

    c) Justice, Honor, Sacrifice, all the old Virtues: you don't have them. Don't exist. LIES.

    So, remind us again why we bothered to front-run yet another little fucking pissant PR hate-fest sponsored by cunts and run on twats from both sides who have neither the mental skills nor the emotional depth nor the ethical understanding to not just scream like fucking mushrooms as it effects them?

    It's a Mirror.

    And you failed.

    1301:

    They built twelve AGRs

    Then maybe, JUST FUCKING MAYBE, get it contact with all your old friends and tell them that a good percentage of the .mil have been compromised / hacked / brainwashed and your skills might be useful to train up some nice young tech hippies out in the boonies.

    Oh, and ~80% of your nukes no longer work.

    ZZZz.

    1302:

    SMM @ 1299: (I only knew going into that sentence that that was a Pompeo statement from having read it previously.) Of the mainstream press today on this, the NYTimes is the best I've seen. At least they parsed Pompeo's statement correctly (bold mine): Two Major Saudi Oil Installations Hit by Drone Strike, and U.S. Blames Iran (Ben Hubbard, Palko Karasz and Stanley Reed, Sept. 14, 2019) United Nations investigators have written that the Houthis have acquired advanced drones that could have a range of up to 930 miles. That leaves open the possibility that the drones used Saturday had flown from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen. But they may also have been launched from another country, such as Iraq, or from inside Saudi Arabia itself. E.g page 28 of this UN doc is clear: The most common types of unmanned aerial vehicles in the Houthi arsenal included the Qasef-1, which showed characteristics similar to the Iranian-made Ababil-2/T loitering munition and which had been used in Yemen at least since 2016 (S/2018/594, paras. 98–101 and annex 38), as well as the smaller Rased reconnaissance drone, which was based on the Chinese-made Skywalker 8-X (ibid.,annex 39), and the Hudhud-1 reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicle, which might have been developed in Yemen.

    1303:

    hard to say "good" in the case of warfare

    Appropriate, perhaps?

    We see a lot of "advanced" countries still practising the traditional colonial mindset of "one of our lives is worth tens to thousands of their lives", especially when it comes to "collateral damage" and war crimes during invasions. It seems entirely appropriate that when negotiations have failed that the occupied people fight back. Especially when they're not expected to - it's one thing to invade Afghanistan then pretend to be shocked when subduing it turns out to be difficult, but when a US proxy attempts to destroy one of the poorest countries on earth it's genuinely shocking that they manage to fight back at all.

    1304:

    The best north from SF Route is the 101 to Reedsport and then the 38 east to I5

    That’s a gorgeous road.

    Then you can take the I5 north to Portland and drive the Columbia river highway through the Columbia a river gorge

    Pretty much all of Oregon and western Idaho is amazing

    1305:

    West Texas, where the nearest place with a post office or a store may be 10 or 20 miles, and you don't want to be out in freezing rain (or after heavy rain, because all the low spots will flood). I40 between Flagstaff and Albuquerque has some good scenery; around Gallup there's lava visible in the center divider

    It's about 1200 miles from L.A. to west Texas - 2.5 to 3 days driving.

    1306:

    The one most would accuse of not understanding that solar isn't good for everyone would probably be me.

    49.129334,-80.990614

    Plug that into Google maps and you'll see a solar farm. That's practically 50 degrees. There's not much of the world population that lives in a country that has no territory below that, or a free trade agreement with one.

    I'd say that if you live in a country with no hydro that will work as seasonal storage, and no territory below 50 degrees, and no free trade deals with countries that have either of those things, then solar will only work for you for 6 months of the year unless you build molten salt thermal storage.

    1307:

    Given the outcome in Libya, the best test for insanity in N Korean leaders would be any actual willingness to give up a nuclear arsenal. Trusting the US is fairly suicidal.

    One thing I'm confused by - last article I looked at had China building something like a quarter terawatt of new coal generators (2018 article). (Comparable to current US coal usage, if I read it correctly.). China seems like an excellent candidate for solar. (Production, national security, location). Why build that much coal?

    1308:

    One person I know has described the motor vehicle laws in Boston as Newton's. I remember being a passenger in Boston, at an intersection where you had to do a diagonal crossing of a one-way street in the opposite direction to the flow on that street. Fortunately it had traffic lights. (I hate driving in cities. Motorways are much, much easier on the nerves.)

    I'd rather deal with roundabouts (which do exist in California; some are recent, as in "built in the last four years").

    1309:

    We did US101 and CA1 southbound from Eureka to, IIRC, Jenner, way way back in 1968, in a VW truck. CA1 is difficult between Fort Ross and Jenner - there were cartoons about it posted at Fort Ross. From the southbound passenger side, the ocean appears to be about 5 feet sideways and about 100 feet down. With rocks at the bottom. I don't actually have any desire to do it northbound, even though it puts you next to the mountainside.

    1310:

    Why build that much coal?

    When you're taking a billion people from mud huts with dirt floors in less than 2 generations you get to build anything and everything trying to keep up. If you have the power to say "Make it so".

    1311:

    North bound it was a nice drive. But I'd not want to do it at night. Now the drive from Mesa Verdi to about 2/3s of the way to Monument Valley was done at night. And my wife would have likely been cowering in the trunk if we had done in when the sun was out.

    1312:

    Much of it seems to have come from an attempt to decentralise permitting. It makes employment in the provinces during construction. Many are never started.

    https://qz.com/1404934/chinas-provinces-are-secretly-building-coal-plants-in-defiance-of-the-national-government/

    1313:

    China is also known for planning all the things, starting a lot of the things, then changing their minds and starting all over again. Quite often what actually gets built makes perfect sense, but the price for that is planning and starting five times more than what gets finished. I'd be shocked if they actually built 250GW of new coal, let alone the 200GW of new nukes or TBH half of the belt'n'braces projects that they're talking about.

    When you look at the alternative systems it's kind of hard to argue with. I mean the liberal democratic habit of planning only the bare minimum, starting half of that and finishing almost everything that gets started... then saying "gosh, we only have half of what we need", panicking, and rushing a half-arse version of the rest or using market mechanisms to decide that poor people don't need food clothes and shelter, clean air to breathe and clean running water.

    (note that I wouldn't live in a one party democracy, or even a two party one, if I had any choice... and I do, so I don't)

    1314:

    The road between 101 and 1 that goes past Skywalker Ranch is perhaps the prettiest drive I have ever done. It's less than an hour north of SF. Lucas Valley Road.

    1315:

    PS, by "never started" I meant never produce any electricity.

    1316:

    Remember the discussion about the low bridge in Durham NC that regularly catches a too tall truck. It caught another one today.

    1317:

    Oh dear, those lyrics are still relevant today:

    Third world debtors default Economies crash into slum Debt takes a stranglehold From poverty there's just no relief Argentina's main export is beef (How low can we go?) While Brazil, the biggest debtor of all Chops down the Amazonian trees Listen

    Everybody need food, clothes and shelter Proper health care And clean running water

    1318:

    I am having difficulty crediting you with good faith here. Mentioning thermal storage and seasonal storage in the same context makes me.. Twichy. You are committing a really, really severe scale error.

    Molten salt heat storage is a super neat technology, assuming you sufficiently hermetically seal your loop (failing at that causes exactly the same corrosion problem for solar thermal as it does for nuclear uses) If your power plant is a heat engine of some sort, you can run any plant as a peaker service with very limited efficiency losses, just by over-sizing the heat transfer loop between your ultimate heat source and your turbines. It is a fantastic answer to mis-matches between supply of heat and demand for electricity on a daily scale.

    Daily. You can store heat from a solar concentrator in the Sahara and perfectly match the local demand profile. This is straightforward, mostly a question of really top-notch plumbing design, and quite affordable. You cannot store power across seasons like this! The quantites of heat that would need to be stored for that is more usually measured in "Megatonnes of TNT Equivalent".

    1319:

    To get the scale thing across to people, you need to explain that what Americans call "suburbia" is "open countryside" in Europe. If they've even heard of exurbs, say "it's people who live 50km from the nearest convenience store." New England is European-scale and easier to grasp, but flyover country is just … weird.

    I may have told this story here before:

    Back in the early 1990s I took a road trip from Portland Oregon to San Jose California with a guy who'd grown up in Japan. That's 670 miles, eleven hours of driving not counting any stops. (And it's about half the short direction across the US.) I'd been this route before and had a pretty good idea what to expect. We had maps and I'd shown them to him. It did not help.

    He started observing that this was a long trip somewhere around Eugene, in the middle of Oregon.

    By the time we got to Grants Pass, near the southern border of Oregon, he was beginning to think I was joking with him. Were we not about to reach the Bay Area any time now? We'd been driving for hours! I observed the signs offering routes to Klamath Falls. I pulled out the Oregon map and pointed; I pulled out the California map and told him we weren't there yet. He remained twitchy.

    The 'Entering California' sign was convincing.

    Then we drove for five hours or so though lightly populated northern California; I think he was growing numb.

    By the time one reaches Sacramento the road has clearly returned to human civilization. Getting into the Bay Area and traffic congestion was by that time a relief.

    Britain and Japan are reasonable sized countries. The US and Australia, not so much.

    1320:

    China has a bit more than the electricity generating capacity as the US to provide electricity for four times the population. The typical per-capita consumption in the West is about 600W on average, China's consumption is about 300W or so and to supply that they run more of their generating plant harder to meet demand which means fossil fuel plants since renewables are intermittent suppliers. They need to increase that generating capacity to provide washing machines and indoor lighting and air conditioning and entertainment and all the other goodies the West takes for granted and that means building out a lot of new generating capacity. In addition there's the ongoing replacement of fossil-fueled transport by battery-electric vehicles which will add another 100-200W per capita demand in the next couple of decades (the West also faces this increase in demand, of course).

    The plan for nuclear builds in China has a target of about 1400GW in 2100 (right now they've got about 60GW) but that target's not likely to be met since it includes a lot of fourth-generation reactors, fast-spectrum waste burners and the like and China has backed off a little from developing and building such reactors. They may be just waiting to buy finished products from the Russians rather than reinventing the wheel. Right now they're bringing four or five conventional reactors of about 1GW each on line each year -- the second EPR at Taishan went into commercial operation a couple of months back, nine years after the first concrete was poured but ttypically it takes about 6 years for an APR-type PWR to come online from start of construction.

    1321:

    South of SF, Highway 1 is picturesque but okay. North of SF … don't do it if you're on a schedule and especially don't EVER do it in a Lincoln Town Car. (I made that mistake. What can I say? I was badly advised!)

    That was the trip with the bear encounter, yes? I remember you had much to say about that.

    On the other hand, this summer I went to Utah in a Ford Crown Victoria (another gigantic American car, different from a Lincoln Town Car in no way Europeans need care about) and it was the right tool for the job. It has a vast trunk, a rear bench seat so wide a big man like me can lay down and sleep, and an engine that will let that much Detroit steel keep up with crazed Mad Max imitators in rural Idaho. So if the drive is going to be hundreds of miles across open land on a wide Autobahn style highway, it's a great choice.

    It's also very wide (1,963mm I read, looking it up). It turns like a barge, which you will discover when you try to park. The less said about the city gas mileage the better.

    For narrow twisty roads? No. Very much no.

    1322:

    Don't @ 1285 PAYTWALLED? You what? Oh bugger - it's a google account & requires a sign-in to view ... sorry .... And I don't know of a way to post a picture that is not "on the web" to public view from my own files .... there may not be one, of course. Sorry, everybody.

    mdive @ 1288 Yes, unfortunately Corbyn has fucked it over COMPLETELY by facing both ways & may have handed the country to the ultra-right. Theis level of stupid incompetence is simply unforgivable. As is BOZO's arrogance & lust for power of course....

    JReynolds @ 1293 Not quite so "home-brewed" drones I suspect --- proibably put together from Iranian kits-of-parts. I hate to say it but ... good ( In the short term ) ... the Saudis have been stamping around, without being hurt themseleves ... now comes the retaliation. Will they learn? Unlikely.

    Troutwaxer @ 1295 "honest people" = Shia

    gasdive @ 1305 THAT is SOUTH of London .....51.30 N So the solar advocates will have to Try Again ....

    1323:

    "I am having difficulty crediting you with good faith here. Mentioning thermal storage and seasonal storage in the same context makes me.. Twichy. You are committing a really, really severe scale error."

    What is the scale? There are very few people living in a country that's all above 50 degrees that doesn't have a trade agreement with a more equatorial neighbor. In the southern hemisphere, there's the Falkland Islands. I'm not sure about the northern hemisphere. Alaska is part part of the US, Canada has more southern climes. Russia goes a long way south. Scandinavian countries have hydro, and trade with Europe. UK trades with Europe and could build in or trade with Spain. (at least for the next 6 weeks anyway). Iceland has geothermal. Greenland has plenty of potential hydro storage and trades with Scandinavia.

    So we're basically looking at the Falkland Islands. They're already rolling out renewables. They've experimented with solar, but found wind is the best for them (no surprise there). https://www.falklands.gov.fk/our-home/renewable-energy/

    "Molten salt heat storage is a super neat technology, assuming you sufficiently hermetically seal your loop (failing at that causes exactly the same corrosion problem for solar thermal as it does for nuclear uses)"

    Exactly the same except that if you need to repair corrosion, it's just salt, not some fissioning witches brew.

    "If your power plant is a heat engine of some sort, you can run any plant as a peaker service with very limited efficiency losses, just by over-sizing the heat transfer loop between your ultimate heat source and your turbines. It is a fantastic answer to mis-matches between supply of heat and demand for electricity on a daily scale."

    Yes.

    "Daily. You can store heat from a solar concentrator in the Sahara and perfectly match the local demand profile. This is straightforward, mostly a question of really top-notch plumbing design, and quite affordable. You cannot store power across seasons like this! The quantites of heat that would need to be stored for that is more usually measured in "Megatonnes of TNT Equivalent"."

    Why limited to daily? You make the tank 500 times bigger in volume and everything else is the same (which you agree is straightforward). That's 8 times more in every dimension. I'm no expert, but that doesn't sound insurmountable. The walls would have a higher pressure and higher hoop stress, but you can make them thicker or pile stuff against the outside wall, or both. Expansion and contraction might be an issue if the walls are too high. (I'm really not sure) So increase the diameter. If there's a technical limit to the wall height (the worst case) keep it as it is and then make the diameter 25 times larger.

    Yes you'd be storing megatonnes of TNT values of energy. So put it somewhere such that if it bursts the salt doesn't go anywhere dangerous. MT energy levels are already common behind dam walls, but dams are harder to site safely, normally being in river valleys.

    1324:

    "gasdive @ 1305 THAT is SOUTH of London .....51.30 N So the solar advocates will have to Try Again"

    Did you read my post?

    Quoting myself: "I'd say that if you live in a country with no hydro that will work as seasonal storage,"

    Which the UK does

    "and no territory below 50 degrees,"

    Which the UK no longer does (excluding the channel isles, which I think we can)

    and no free trade deals with countries that have either of those things,

    Hahahahaaaaa (sorry, shouldn't laugh) teeheheheee

    "then solar will only work for you for 6 months of the year unless you build molten salt thermal storage."

    So yeah, only 6 months a year of practically free electricity. (unless you invest in some infrastructure like pumped hydro or molten salt)

    1325:

    It seems to me that if Brexit happens and it becomes much harder to move goods across the border, there will be a tremendous amount of smuggling. Plausible?

    1326:
    Britain and Japan are reasonable sized countries. The US and Australia, not so much.

    The flip side is that I've encountered a fair few USA chums coming over for a five day break and wanting to know what to see "In Europe" and then had to be brought down to the reality of the distances involved :-)

    1327:

    Back in the early 1990s I took a road trip from Portland Oregon to San Jose California with a guy who'd grown up in Japan. That's 670 miles, eleven hours of driving not counting any stops.

    That's quite a bit shorter than the distance between Tokyo and Kagoshima-chuo down in Kyushu (about 850 miles). That trip takes about 6 1/2 hours on the shinkansen with a transfer somewhere like Shin-Osaka or Hakata. I can understand why he was so impatient with your sluggardly rate of travel. Are all Americans content to travel this slowly? Is it the historical connection with the covered wagons, some kind of SCA thing you do?

    1328:

    It seems to me that if Brexit happens and it becomes much harder to move goods across the border, there will be a tremendous amount of smuggling. Plausible?

    If I understand correctly, the word being used in Ireland is not plausible but inevitable. (Also "Fuck the English!", but when isn't it?) Anyone who is already preparing special smuggling equipment or secret routes is presumably also not talking about it.

    Maybe the Brexiteers should try promising to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it.

    1329:

    No, it's not wrong. Yes, they can share in a location where the productivity is limited entirely by rainfall during the 'wet' seasons, but that is a far smaller proportion of the planet than you seem to realise. Essentially, it's true only in places where irrigation is essential for agriculture, and we should be reducing such use for other reasons.

    1330:

    Britain and Japan are reasonable sized countries

    I rode my bike across some of the northern bit of Australia once. Plotted on a map of Europe it was the same distance as northern Norway to southern Portugal (admittedly via Iceland). But then the highest point on that trip was only about 1000m and there wasn't a lot of undulation. Australia is roughly the same circumference as Europe.

    But it's hard to beat the density of tourist attractions in Europe. In Australia the genocide means that mostly we know that there's history in any random spot, we just have no idea what it is other than the obvious "here is the outline of a hand". Whereas Europe they may not have been making history for as long but they've been doing it a lot more enthusiastically.

    1331:

    Hydro as seasonal storage in the UK? Uh, no.

    Scotland, despite the picturesque reputation of the Highlands can produce, at full tilt about 1GW total of hydro-electricity. Remember that the highest mountain in Scotland, Ben Nevis is only about 1300 metres above sea level. Seasonal storage of rainfall really requires a slow-melting snowpack as in the US Sierras (typical height 3000 to 4000 metres) or the Alps or indeed New Zealand.

    The pumped storage reservoirs at Cruachan (Scotland) and Dinorwig (Wales) can produce about 2GW maximum with a capacity of about 16GWh. They were only built and rated for storing cheap overnight electricity and releasing it the next day plus providing Black Start capability in case of a major network outage. They are definitely not for seasonal storage, that would require thousands of times more capacity than they provide.

    1332:

    a tremendous amount of smuggling

    It's less a question of how much and more a question of what exactly will be smuggled. Worst case the US goes back to providing money and weapons to freedom fighters in Ireland, or Russia ditto (which freedom is a question best not answered).

    The problem with the non-backstop answers in Ireland is that there's a lot of border and not a lot of army, and a lot of places you can drive a truck across (using one of the many existing roads). That's without getting into the houses that back onto (or are built across) the border.

    England also has a long and proud history of smuggling across the channel, but that rather relies on their being legitimate traffic to hide in. These days even semi-submersibles are pretty easy to spot, and the European Channel is one of the busier waterways in the world so there are a lot of people paying attention to exactly what is in there and what exactly it's doing.

    If the "hard brexit" mob get their way there may be very little smuggling simple because there's nothing moving across the channel... for a while, and then the aid shipments start. If we're really unlucky we'll get a Christmas Single "USA for UK" featuring lots of once-famous pop stars...

    1333:

    Just have to trade with your neighbors then.

    1334:

    Geoff Russell reminds us that people are doing stuff to reduce the amount of climate change:

    https://newmatilda.com/2019/09/12/if-you-think-nobody-is-doing-anything-to-tackle-climate-change-youd-be-wrong/

    Geoff is if nothing else proof that there are still right wing small-l liberals in Australia. I disagree with him oin a great many things, but he's fighting the good fight more than he's beating down greenies.

    1335:

    gasdive @ 1323 Oops However we do have pumped storage - we just neeed more of it .... & huge tidal pool staorage ( not barrages ) would be a good idea, too ...

    Going back tp a previous sub=topic. I just saw TWO Dragon Rapides flying over!

    1336:

    Tidal pool storage? Wouldn't that need either a really big estuary you wanted to kill, or a tidal range in the hundreds of metres? My limited knowledge of tidal barrages is that you need to leave them open most of the time or the enclosed area dies off and now you don't have baby fish any more (that's the economic argument, anyway).

    I mentioned Australians doing pumped hydro with sea water, but that's not really tidal (they can't put the outlet at the low tide mark if they want it to work at high tide - Pelton Wheels don't really benefit from sucking on the exhaust)

    1337:

    Here's the problem:

    Western "free market" dogma holds that central planning is inefficient, corrupt, prone to information blockages, and doesn't work.

    But the "free market" is also inefficient, corrupt, prone to information blockages, and doesn't work either.

    Both organizational paradigms have strengths—and the same weaknesses when misapplied, almost as if it's a shared characteristic of organizational paradigms.

    (Free market: useful when a new sector is opening up and exploring the phase space of possible architectures is a necessary precondition of working out what form of the new infrastructure is most efficient. Like, say, integrated circuits from 1970-2010. Central planning: useful when you need to build out a well-understood form of infrastructure—like, say, highways in the 1950s-1970s—as fast as possible. What works badly: trying to apply central planning to a field that's still in the develop-and-explore phase; applying the free market to a field that's in the consolidate-and-build-monopolistic-infrastructure stage.)

    1338:

    Greg: Corbyn has fucked it over COMPLETELY by facing both ways & may have handed the country to the ultra-right.

    At this point I'm beginning to suspect that Corbyn is, if not a Trot, then at least has suckled from the same nipple as the RCP/Spiked crowd. Only whereas those guys are entryists taking their 30 pieces of silver from the Koch brothers and now turn out to be hardcore Tories, Corbyn is a believer and a low-level left-Accelerationist who figures to get the left into power he needs to make the Tories own a disastrous brexit.

    Which might work if he wasn't up against a right-Accelerationist (Cummings), a closet alt-right populist (BoJo), and a revolutionary-grade plan to apply the shock doctrine to the UK. Probably backed by guns.

    (At this point I really think we're in a situation analogous to Yugoslavia in 1991, right before the country splintered and the shooting started.)

    1339:

    It seems to me that if Brexit happens and it becomes much harder to move goods across the border, there will be a tremendous amount of smuggling. Plausible?

    Yes, this is expected.

    Also note that smuggling was one of, if not the, major source of funding for the paramilitaries during the Troubles.

    1340:

    I believe that it still is to a great extent, followed by illegal drugs and pimping, though they are now called 'organised crime'. The official line is that the paramilitaries disbanded, and many of their members genuinely did lay down their guns, but all the organisations really did was shift focus. What I don't know (though DavetheProc might) is how much the police have managed to reduce that - the reports in the media (and by the gummint) aren't enough for me to gauge that.

    1341:

    Heaven help us, yes, but he isn't really doing anything worse than most of the British political leaders of the past 40 years, despite Greg's vitriolic hatred of him. And I don't really see what he could do better to get Labour into power, because taking a Remain position would simply split the vote with the Lib Dems and give the Tories a landslide.

    I have no idea whether his reluctance to an electoral pact of any kind is a personal choice, or because he knows he couldn't override Labour's extreme tribalism. And, for the record, the Tories are exactly the same in that respect, and the Lib Dems and SNP little better.

    Given the overwhelming dominance of (de facto military) power in the hands of the 'government', I see the most likely scenario as the Tories forming a fascist government with near-total suppression of dissent, followed by a Blairite takeover of Labour continuing it. The only questions then are what it does with Scotland and Northern Ireland.

    But, if Corbyn does get into power, I can easily see the USA supplying and supporting its camp followers in the UK into mounting a coup. After all, that's how they started the Syrian civil war as well as lots of others, and we aren't as special as we claim.

    But, yes, Yugoslavia :-(

    1342:

    I see the current opinion polls, showing a 12% Tory lead and Labour barely running ahead of the LibDems, as a side-effect of the LibDems hoovering up the "Cancel A50" vote.

    That means the LibDem surge is transient; either Brexit will happen or it'll be cancelled, at which point they go back to baseline LibDem levels of support.

    As the LibDems drift rightwards, hoovering up Tory defectors who are anti-Brexit, they piss off their own grass-roots activists, who are mainly left-wing social liberals. Right now they're holding solid because those activists are also overwhelmingly anti-Brexit, but when Brexit goes away, there's a risk that a lot of the LibDem base will defect to Labour, depending on what stance Corbyn takes after the Tory-led Brexit. (Right now this is unclear.)

    Corbyn's best solution is to let Boris have his Brexit then force a snap general election amidst the chaos, as the Brexiters voting Tory return to Farage or lose interest and the LibDem vote collapses. Then and only then does he have a chance to mitigate the damage (or do whatever the hell his back-room people are thinking about doing).

    I can't rule out a Tory de-facto fascist government, possibly in coalition with Farage's brownshirts. It all depends on how the crisis plays out—and we're going to have a crisis, make no mistake: even if by some mischance Article 50 is withdrawn, there'll be large-scale riots.

    But US support for a coup in the UK? That might have been a thing 20 years ago, but right now the US state department couldn't find its arse with a map, a flashlight, and a gallon tub of KY jelly. To the extent there's US backing for a coup it actually happened 4 years ago by way of Facebook, Cambridge Analytica, soft money from the usual billionaire donors, and rhetoric by Steve Bannon. What's playing out now is the aftermath of the US-backed coup.

    Remember: when the CIA organized a coup in a developing nation in the 1950s-1970s they always used local elites as a proxy.

    1343:

    My take on Corby and Brexit has always been that he would love for UK to crash out and then hand him the steering wheel, enabling "reforms" which would be incompatible with or impossibly slow in a EU membership.

    The "reforms" I suspect him of coveting are in Marxist Revolution territory: Confiscate the land and wealth from the rich, workers seizing the "means of production" and wave goodbye to Monarchy.

    Boris seems to be walking straight into that endgame.

    1344:

    It seems to me that if Brexit happens and it becomes much harder to move goods across the border, there will be a tremendous amount of smuggling.

    Well, it is traditional in many parts of the UK…

    1345:

    It may be too late now, given the recent surge in Lib Dem support, but if Labour had acknowledged reality 6 months ago then the Lib Dems wouldn't have surged and Labour could have been in a much better position.

    Labour's biggest problem at this point is:

    1) for now at least the electorate isn't going with its "normal" allegiances and is now choosing party support based on Brexit

    2) post 2017 the electorate has woken up to the fact that Corbyn / Labour are trying to play both sides, and so both sides are parking their votes elsewhere.

    1346:

    Yes, with one exception, which has two aspects.

    The fact that the US State Department is completely dysfunctional doesn't make such support from within it impossible - remember the Contra affair? - all it needs is loose cannons with enough independence and resources. Also, 2010 (Syria) was only 9 years ago, when they assuredly did precisely what I said.

    But I said 'the USA' not 'the US State Department'. I would anticipate most of the transpondian action being by 'private' people and organisations, with indirect support (mostly of the closed-eye and leaked information on the UK varieties) from sympathisers in the USA spooks, military, arms companies etc. That is, after all, how the backing for the coup you described operated, but with a different set of proxies.

    1347:

    Sorry. There is something that I was treating as read, but realise wasn't obvious. The object wouldn't be a formal coup (as in Iran, 1953) but to create anarchy and widespread violence, so that an election would install a subservient (and fascist) government, using our local elites as proxies. I.e. it wouldn't need to take over - just sabotage Corbyn's government in a way that would lead to a large rebound.

    No, I do NOT think any branch of the US Government is that subtle, but some of the people behind Brexit assuredly are.

    1348:

    It's easy, as one not in the UK, to say it will be interesting to watch what happens, because (somewhat like the US) with a population split roughly 50/50 on a topic that generates so much passion there are as Charlie indicates no good options.

    My guess, depending on when exactly the election happens, is that the Brexit issue won't go away as quickly as some might be hoping.

    If things do go bad as many expect, it is possible the Labour vote could collapse with the Lib Dems as the only "lets return to the way things were" party benefiting from a further surge of support.

    The big question is what happens to the Tory support, and my guess is not much at that point - they will want to support Boris to prevent the Lib Dems or Labour from reversing their glorious Brexit achievement. Because as we have seen from the Trump supporters, reality doesn't matter and there is always someone else who is at fault for any problems.

    It is possible that the Lib Dem vote could collapse post-Brexit and return to Labour, but I don't know in the mess that we all seem to think will be happening a message of "Brexit, but in a Labour version" will sell to the public very well.

    1349:

    I have been wrong before, but I can't remember exactly when. However to me some things are obvious.

    PM Johnson is not stupid.

    Leader of the Opposition Corbyn is impotent with a call for a Vote of No Confidence as his only Parliamentary weapon -- last time he tried it the Tories and the DUP lined up solidly behind PM May and it failed. Much of Labour's traditional support (perhaps 20% or so) will not vote for Labour if they go hard Remain, many will vote for a Brexit Party candidate or abstain. They will definitely not support the proto-Tory LibDems who are hard Remain. Remain supporters will split and let in Tories.

    The Tory Party is going for hard Brexit with the overwhelming support of most of their traditional voters, siphoning support away from Brexit Party candidates in their constituencies which might have otherwise split the votes and allowed Remain candidates to win. They have sloughed off the Remain unbelievers and will deselect them in the forthcoming election.

    I believe PM Johnson is looking forward to the aftermath of Brexit and the subsequent election (back me or sack me!). He expects to still be PM after that election with a solid majority of Tory MPs in Parliament, most of whom are ideologically aligned with him. That is why he is promising the Leaver faithful a real Brexit while fig-leafing it with lies about significant negotiations about a "deal" and other obfuscations so he blame everything that goes wrong afterwards on duplicitous foreigners, something that will resound with his core voters. He only has to get to October 31st and his seat in No. 10 is safe and guaranteed for the next few years thanks to the Qusiling LibDems and their Fixed-Term Parliaments Act. All else can be dealt with later. He has a track-record of short-term planning and administration leaving disaster and confusion in his wake but his long-term personal ambitions are more structured and robust.

    Remember, Boris Johnson is not stupid.

    1350:

    Really? That's not what the electoral analyses indicate. While Labour party MEMBERS are overwhelmingly Remain, the people who voted for Labour (and would need to do so again to get him to power) aren't, and many are diehard Leave. If he had done what you say, then the FPTP mechanism would, indeed, have stopped a Lim Dem 'surge', but would still have given the Tories a landslide.

    1351:

    "excluding the channel isles, which I think we can"

    Not really, not if the point is about deriving power from non-fossil sources in general rather than concentrating on one specific non-fossil source which doesn't work very well in much of the UK. Poddle around them in a sailing boat for a compelling demonstration of the reasons why.

    1352:

    I have over the last year read conflicting stories on what "Labour voters" believe, but the overall consensus seemed to be that the diehard leave segment of voters involved only a small number of seats.

    But as I said above, the polling now tells the story - with 19% of Labour leave voters intending to vote Tory - and the story is that neither Leave nor Remain voters trust Corybn, and thus are looking for alternatives to Labour for their vote.

    Trying to play both sides may work for a short time (aka the 2017 election), but on such a divisive issue as Brexit that has split the electorate in half it catches up to you and you end up mistrusted by both sides. Hence the Labour voters going to Boris, and presumably to the Lib Dems, and perhaps more damaging the young voters who don't show up to vote because they feel betrayed by Corybn.

    1353:

    How will the supreme court hearing/decision on Tuesday play out?

    Would it be possible that we get an interesting scenario, in which they declare prorogation to be legal for England (and Wales, and Northern Ireland), but illegal for Scotland? And what could happen going forward from such a decision?

    The Scottish MPs could convene as a rump parliament, in which the SNP has a solid majority. What would they do? Pass legislation to cancel Art. 50 immediately? Pass a vote of no confidence against Boris Johnson and ask the Queen to ask Ian Blackford to form a new government? Exciting possibilities!

    (Probably nothing of that is going to happen, of course, but one can dream, can't one? So, what do you dream of? What would you like a purely Scottish rump parliament to do?)

    1354:

    Britain and Japan are reasonable sized countries. The US and Australia, not so much.

    I've spent most of my life around the edges of the US Great Plains, making regular east-west drives across them (500 to 800 km, depending). The GP area is larger than the UK and Japan combined. Population peaked around 1930, driven by federal government programs giving land away, but has been declining for almost 90 years since then. Large areas have dropped below seven people per square mile, the traditional definition of "frontier".

    The Great Plains include a variety of different ecosystems (eg, the Nebraska Sandhills are classified as the largest contiguous wetlands habitat in the US). The problem is that each of them goes on so far that the drive is monotonous on a human scale.

    1355:

    The "Corbyn's desired reforms are incompatible with EU membership" thing - when speaking of advertised reforms, manifesto-grade vote-for-this stuff, rather than personal hypotheses about someone else's private thoughts - is simply another piece of anti-EU propaganda aimed at splitting the anti-fascist and anti-looney vote. Unfortunately it appears to be an insidiously successful one which is believed even by those who would prefer it not to be true, to the extent that it is difficult to convince them that it actually isn't true. On the one side you have a simple and straightforward, if false, statement with 40 years of similar propaganda plus the memories of those who remember the 70s Labour stance on the EU to support its plausibility, on the other side you have a requirement for individuals to plough through gigabytes of impenetrable legalistic porridge and work out what it really means as opposed to what it looks like it means if you can't cope with the tedium well enough not to miss bits. I guess it's not too surprising that people can't be arsed and follow the easy answer instead even if it is wrong.

    (Seems to me this sort of thing is a general problem with propaganda and countering it. Whoever gets in first just has to say "Oh Yes It Is" to gain a lead which it is very hard to recover. Responding with "Oh No It Isn't" just leads to a "well they would say that wouldn't they" reaction and a tendency to stick with whatever was said first. But responding with "Here's why it isn't, [detailed and irrefutable argument]" leads to "oh shut up with all that flannel" and if anything an even stronger tendency to stick with whatever was said first...)

    Corbyn's manifesto had a pretty long list of stuff. Getting all that done and making it stick within one 5-year parliamentary term is pretty bloody unlikely of itself even with a solid Labour majority. With the length of time Corbyn's been an MP he must surely be far more keenly aware of that than a bunch of spectators like us. Even more surely must he be aware that changes as extreme as you suggest couldn't be done at all without suspension of democracy and bloody revolution.

    1356:

    Yes, indeed, and those are even more interesting than the possibilities I had thought of! It's not possible that NOTHING will happen, because of the flat conflict of precedents. My suspicion is that they will delay giving a verdict until October and then issue something that says the proroguement was improper but stop short of requiring it halted. All in impenetrable legalese that even lawyers will find easy to interpret in whatever way suits them.

    To Pigeon (#1354): yes. That's how demagogues have seized power throughout the history of so-called representative democracies.

    1357:

    Trouble is that leaving the EU actually isn't what an election would really be about. While it might be nice to dream of, the chances of an election returning a government with the majority and the will to revoke A50, and them doing it, all within the unfeasibly short time available, are as close to fuck all as makes no difference, so as far as I can see we're completely fucked on that matter whatever happens, and we certainly aren't going to get any kind of election or vote that will make a meaningful difference to what happens over it.

    What an election would really be about would be what kind of government we get after being fucked. And the choices there are, essentially, fascists or a fascist-dominated coalition on the one hand, vs. Corbyn or a left-dominated coalition on the other. So as far as I'm concerned it's still as much of a no-brainer as it would be without the whole EU thing.

    Corbyn being untrustworthy... well I suppose he is if you delude yourself that he's some kind of messianic idol to the extent that you expect him to behave like one. But if you view him as what he is - a politician - and compare him with such as the current prime minister (how can you tell if Boris Johnson is lying? His lips are moving) the accusation is kind of ludicrous.

    1358:

    Charlie @ 1337 NOT QUITE that bad, but Agree that Cornyn is following classic Revolitonary Marxist doctrine oin that "If it gets bad enough, people will turn to us for the glorious Revolution" Unfotrunatgely that's not only bollocks, it kills a lot of people. Like I've been sayinmg all along : He's STUPID

    EC @ 134 My "vitriolic hated" of Corbyn is that his stupidty WILL ( most likely ) hand us pver to the qusi-fascist & asset-strippers ... bvecause he's STUPID, like I said. Now - hve we go that, yet, this time?

    C @ 1341 and we're going to have a crisis, make no mistake

    PHK @ 1342 My take on Corby and Brexit has always been that he would love for UK to crash out and then hand him the steering wheel, enabling "reforms" which would be incompatible with or impossibly slow in a EU membership. Yes, this ANd THAT Would result in even more bloodshed Again both BOZO & Corbyn are stupid - but in very different ways

    Nojay @ 1348 for the firt time for a long time, I'm horribly afraid you might be correct BUT - people like you screaming that the Lem0crats & the One Nation tories are "all fascist scum" has helped to get us into this potential disaster ....

    My only hope is that, on Tuesday the Supreme rules against BOZO - whole new game at that point. See MSB @ 1352

    1359:

    BUT - people like you screaming that the Lem0crats & the One Nation tories are "all fascist scum" has helped to get us into this potential disaster ....

    Of course the people who scream Jeremy Corbyn is the second coming of Pol Pot have absolutely nothing to do with how the Tories are going to win the next election on a hard Brexit platform, either by achieving it by resubmitting Article 50 based on an election manifesto promise and victory at the polls or having achieved Brexit by running the clock out till October 31st.

    It's always someone else's fault, isn't it?

    As a matter of fact I am very very careful when throwing the "fascist" label around since for one thing, it tends to be applied by a lot of folks to "people whose politics I really don't like". Now I really don't like the Tories, I regard them as scum, especially the current crop and I doubt very much that many of the commentators here would disagree with that. Don't make the mistake of thinking they're stupid or they can't plan forward past the current Shiny! object du jour that is sucking up all the attention just because you don't like them.

    As for the Supremes ruling against the prorogation, so what? Parliament gets back in session and, assuming the Lib Dem Quisling leader can bear to be in the same room as the baby-eating Super-Marxist! Leader of the Official Opposition, they get Article 50 rescinded by some miracle. Yay! An election is going to happen and that's Boris' chance, even if he's sitting in a prison cell writing his memoirs like Mean Mister Moustache and Nelson Mandela did. He knows he's going to win. In fact, as long as the press can vilify Labour he can't lose can he?

    1360:

    Travel slowly?

    We have these little things called “airplanes” when we want to get places fast. I routinely jet from SF to Seattle (807 miles) for $99 in 1.5 hours. So yeah, high speed rail don’t impress me so much

    Long distance car drives are more for fun then getting to a place. That or you are carrying cargo

    1361:

    Oh, come off it! You have been railing against Jeremy Corbyn since he was elected (perhaps even before) using every condemnation you can think of, and CERTAINLY well before his stance on Brexit became known.

    And Nojay has a point about the Lib Dems, though the term "quisling" is far too strong. There is no doubt that Clegg et al. ballsed up the best chance of electoral reform there has been in my lifetime. And their amelioration of Cameron's loathesome government was merely a temporary speed limit on the road to extreme monetarism and near-fascism. But that was all because they were well-meaning but naive and foolish.

    1362:

    Nor global warming, apparently.

    1363:

    “Supreme rules against BOZO - whole new game at that point.” How so? Parliament had three years to find an a way to avoid the no deal default case, and couldn’t. How does a few extra weeks make a difference?

    1364:

    the term "quisling" is far too strong

    Vidkun Quisling's Fascists thought they were saving Norway from Bolshevism and worse. They were naive and foolish, minnows cuddling up to sharks and thinking that made them important in their master's eyes. The Lib Dems collaborating with the Tories after 2010 and keeping them in power while they set the scene for the Brexit referendum just emphasises how naive and foolish they were.

    Note that Jo Swinson, the current popularly-elected leader of the Lib Dems was a Minister in that Tory-led "Coalition" government and she got booted out of Parliament for her pains in 2015. I'd not bet money she wouldn't do it again given the chance.

    1365:

    I find it absurd that Brexit has provided us this long entertainment.

    I have some familiarity with economics and the British way to handle Brexit seems to be the most damaging one. After the election we had a small betting-pool. No-one of us predicted this farce. I expected a straighforward crash out and recover solution. Some others expected a detailed negotiation with an agreement.

    Nobody in my field of business expected this extended agony. The extended agony causes more economic pain than the out-at-once solution would have been. With this long-time delay everybody has more than enough time to plan for the most difficult situation.

    I just cannot understand why this type of purgatory has been allowed to come into being.

    1366:

    Nojay It's always someone else's fault, isn't it? Not this time ... but I have always resisted the screams of "evil fascists!" from people like you, simply because it wasn't true ... until now, that is. There's a story about crying "wolf" remember? So that when REAL actual fascists do turn up - as looks like they have, now ... it takes some time for me & others to realise that THIS time it is different.

    I really do hope we do not get a General Election, for the very reasons you cite, because both parties are split, the tory one-nation minority for remain & the hard-left-shading-into-marxism of Labour also backing brexit, for opposite & equally wrong ideological "reasons". With a large majority of Labour backing Remain, who are NOT being supported by theor incompetent-fuckwit leader.

    assuming the Lib Dem Quisling leader can bear to be in the same room as the baby-eating Super-Marxist! Leader of the Official Opposition, AND THAT is PRECISELY why you & I & all of us are going to lose to the Brexi-fascists unless you bloody SHUT UP & WORK WITH THEM. FUck me, you're like the Republican factions in the Spanish Civil War, fighting each other & not Franco .... In fact, as long as the press can vilify Labour he can't lose can he? Actually he can - but ONLY if you put stopping Brexit FIRST & everything else is secondary ... which you still don't seem to be doing. [ I stress "seem" incidentally ] ... riffing intp EC @ 1360 Yes, I have, because he is in order of decreasing improtance 1: Incompetent - utterly & totally incompetent. 2: Unable to learn anything at all since 1973 3: is dengerously near to marxism

    Look, if Kier Starmer were Labour's leader, we simply would not be having ths conversation & Labour would have eaten the right-tories fpr breakfast - yes? And Labour would be 10 points ahead in the polls, too!

    1367:

    When I was learning to drive (about 1980, I was a late learner) the person teaching me started up Angeles Crest Highway from Glendale. We got maybe a mile from the bottom, and I couldn't deal with it. I am not a mountain-road driver. (Which is while I'll never get up to Big Bear. It isn't called "Rim of the World highway" for nothing. I went over it in an airliner, going into Ontario airport, and that was plenty close enough.)

    1368:

    I just cannot understand why this type of purgatory has been allowed to come into being.

    Post-colonial nation states don't make anybody rich. This means they have nearly no committed support as institutions. (The last generation that remembered why you really wanted strong common prosperity, rather than assuming it's inevitable, is dead now.)

    What makes you rich is control of an appropriate corporation. (Russia is important to Putin; it gives him control of a nuclear deterrent and control of Gazprom. That is, he's getting rich and can't be stopped by force. It's not a civil-ideals project.) Pure corporatism -- no regulation, no government, law to settle contract disputes but not to impede profit -- has LOTS of support as an institution. People have been working diligently since 1980 or so to bring it into being; it makes them rich, therefor it is good.

    An organism converts food into shit; an ecology converts shit into food.

    Modern industrial economies have no equivalent of an ecology; it's open-loop, so it converts labour and resources into garbage. It is obvious to the meanest intelligence that anything able to persist in the long term will have to have the industrial equivalent of an ecology, and no one will be allowed to loot either it or the biosphere ecology.

    Since corporatism relies on looting behaviours, there's this impasse. Perhaps we must change, but not yet. (There was always going to be this "one more quarter" problem about admitting the necessity of change; that the people who need to do the admitting are frequently innumerate pro-eschaton death-cultists isn't helping.)

    The UK is about the oldest industrial state; it's going first, as it were. The present factions are, economically, pure corporatism -- loot the NHS, wealth-is-virtue, kill the disabled because there's no profit in them, do not tax the rich, etc. -- and a sort of stunned that's-not-very-nice-wait-what. Socially, it's a split between ethno-authoritarianism -- virtue consists of exercising your power to hurt anyone who isn't normal -- and cosmopolitan tolerance. (It doesn't make you rich, but it might make you prosperous.)

    There are some strong constraints; there's no useful economic theory floating around in the general consciousness. (Capitalism and socialism are both incapable of working. We've got strong demonstrations of this; we've got the theoretical notion that neither capitalism ('we can do it all with feedback') nor socialism ('we can do it all with constraints') ought to work.) The folks funding the ethno-authoritarianism aren't capable of admitting defeat, it's equivalent to suicide, and aren't able to care very much about economic consequences. The likelihood of agriculture failing isn't zero and is increasing.

    It's a question of what kind of successor state you want to live in; the people actually in politics out of a sense of public service are inherently deeply committed to the status quo. They can't ask the question.

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;", in other words.

    What kind of successor state do you want to live in? It's time to see which neighbours you can get to agree on how much.

    1369:

    Depends on how concentrated their minds are. Great Harry is back out of the dark; declaring the whole of Brexit a treasonous foreign plot, executing the principals, and attainting their entire fortunes and families is not legally impossible.

    I don't think that's going to happen, which is a pity. It would put a dent in "all is fair if it makes me richer".

    1370:

    AND THAT is PRECISELY why you & I & all of us are going to lose to the Brexi-fascists unless you bloody SHUT UP & WORK WITH THEM.

    Willie Rennie, the Scottish Lib Dem leader stated to the BBC today:

    Mr Rennie also ruled out any kind of coalition with Labour or the Conservatives following a general election and said the situation extended to parties at Holyrood.

    So, no working with the others for the Lib Dems. Of course with Swinson actuully in charge that could change, if Boris needed some willing patsies after the votes were counted. I'm sure it would be different this time. Really.

    By the way, who's Keir Starmer when he's at home? Google Google... Oh, a newcomer to Parliament with no connections and no support within either the PLP or the national Party structure. I'm sure that if he put himself forward in a Labour leadership election he'd do better than the old Blairite hacks that gave Corbyn overwhelming majorities the last two leadership contests. I doubt he'd win though.

    Personally I think Jeremy Corbyn should retire from the Leadership, he's getting to be too old to do the job and frankly no-one appreciates the work he does, least of all the right-wingers who say he's incompetent and a Marxist mole for the Kremlin and all the other insults that's been slung at him. His choice though, until the Labour Party members choose someone else.

    1371:

    Not quite so "home-brewed" drones I suspect --- proibably put together from Iranian kits-of-parts.

    And since this is a science-fictional group ... yes, this was "predicted" in SF.

    The Moon Goddess And the Son Donald Kingsbury Baen Books, 1987

    A sub-plot has an MIT student noticing a way to whip up DIY cruise missiles from readily available parts. So a fellow student from Afghanistan (which in the 1987 book was still fighting off the USSR) found the financing and built them. A large salvo was fired at the Kremlin, and got there.

    Going forward, apparently the parts really are out there now, and every smart insurgency will try to get some. Has anyone developed good defences against these things ?

    1372:

    I am reminded of a minor news piece in New Scientist in the 1980s/early 1990s; apparently Israel had a use case for small recon drones over Lebanon, and Hezbollah kept shooting them down. Expensive! The priciest part of the drone was the motor, so they looked for a cheap option. Lo and behold, it turns out if you take a truck turbocharger and stick a combustion chamber between the compressor and the turbine you get a serviceable centrifugal-flow turbojet. Not very economical, but this is only for short range flights. Not very long-lived, even if you welded the combustion chamber on just right the MTBF was single-digit hours, but see above. Upshot: a homebrew turbojet suitable for a single-shot drone (can you spell poor man's cruise missile?) that cost a couple of thousand pounds in bulk quantity.

    1373:

    LA Times:

    Under the 25-year deal with developer 8minute Solar Energy, the city would buy electricity from a sprawling complex of solar panels and lithium-ion batteries in the Mojave Desert of eastern Kern County, about two hours north of Los Angeles. The Eland project would meet 6% to 7% of L.A.'s annual electricity needs and would be capable of pumping clean energy into the grid for four hours each night.

    The combined solar power and energy storage is priced at 3.3 cents per kilowatt-hour — a record low for this type of contract, city officials and independent experts say, and cheaper than electricity from natural gas.

    ...

    “Any renewable energy project with solar, we’re looking to pair it with storage. We’re not looking for any solar by itself,” Reiko Kerr, the DWP’s senior assistant general manager for power system engineering, said in an interview this year.

    https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2019-09-10/ladwp-votes-on-eland-solar-contract

    1374:

    It's got to be knocking 20 years ago that someone was selling commercial versions: the shaft and wheels out of an automotive turbocharger in a housing made mostly out of bent sheet metal incorporating an axial combustion chamber, so it looks justlikearealone but is about the size of a big tin of dog food. They stuck one on the back of a bicycle and Jeremy Clarkson was tootling round a park on it. This was well before sites appeared on the internet detailing various people's home made bodge attempts using the turbocharger complete as supplied, with a huge and ill-performing combustion chamber sticking out sideways, gulping LPG like there's no tomorrow and producing lots of noise and fury but bugger all thrust - I first discovered those sites looking for more information about the Clarkson device, internet access having become available since the original event, which gives some idea how long ago it must have been.

    The basic knowledge of putting such a gadget together must be considerably older than the televised appearance of a commercial version. It's probably been around since the first convergence of a scrapyard turbo and someone who understood the fluid dynamics of the inside of a jet engine. And navigation has never really been a problem, since after all GPS was designed to work with 70s microprocessors (and by the 90s circuitry had got fast enough to track the carrier phase directly, ignoring the code and rendering SA obsolete).

    These days, you can get Clarkson-type jet engines in a range of different sizes, with half-decent reliability, mass produced in China for a grand or two, or less if you poke about. There are also free design documents on the internet which take an intelligently disciplined approach to the fluid dynamics of converting an automotive turbocharger to a Clarkson-type jet, as opposed to the whack-some-bits-together-and-see-what-happens approach of the typical complete-turbo experimenters, by the aid of which you could put one together from the guts of a scrapyard turbo plus some metalbashing and expect useful performance. And there is plenty of well-developed open source software for making an aircraft navigate itself around a predefined course.

    I've given some thought to the idea of putting together a cruise missile myself (with a photographic payload rather than an explosive one, simply for the fun of watching its video) - a range of a few hundred miles is easily achievable with some of the Chinese jets. The main difficulty is the space and the number of prototypes required to cope with the inevitable crashes sorting the software out.

    1375:

    TPTB seem to think that the Houthis couldn't possibly do this on their own. This means that it's time for war (or at least more sanctions) with Iran.

    The Forever War gets extended and expanded, due to popular demand.

    1376:

    TPTB seem to think that the Houthis couldn't possibly do this on their own.

    If one guy in a garage in Auckland can do it I struggle to see why a whole bunch of people working together can't do it. It's not only "not rocket science", it's not even close. What's hard to get is the guidance system and control electronics, because if you don't have access to AliExpress or Amazon you have to visit a hobby shop or something. Or buy them second hand. It's all open source hardware...

    The hard parts are all stuff the Yemeni government don't care about - robust when transported, long shelf life, extremely reliable, available in large numbers complete with parts and service manuals...

    1377:

    I've given some thought to the idea of putting together a cruise missile myself (with a photographic payload rather than an explosive one, simply for the fun of watching its video) - a range of a few hundred miles is easily achievable with some of the Chinese jets. So, garage tech, for your first generation device.

    JReynolds @ 1374 TPTB seem to think that the Houthis couldn't possibly do this on their own. The powers that be couldn't (or claimed they couldn't) imagine somebody flying commercial jets into the World Trade Center buildings. So they're (probably) lying; not sure on the plays yet but the worldwide press isn't fully buying it. People seem to place probability of a false flag op (perhaps related to an Aramco IPO) by e.g. SA or IL or somebody else as higher than P of direct action by Iran. Is anyone seriously trying to negotiate a Saudi/Houthi cease fire? This would reduce cover for FF attacks by other parties.

    1378:

    If I was looking at building a drone/missile of the sort the Houthis seem to have used I think I'd go for a propellor-driven design using something like a motorbike engine as the power plant. They're a lot more reliable and less fuel-hungry than a home-grown jet engine and pretty cheap too, and nobody has motorbike engines on any kind of export munitions watchlist.

    1379:

    But you'd only go with a jet to get speed, and you start to run into regulatory hurdles very quickly because most countries have quite strong restrictions on amateur remotely operated vehicles - they limit altitude and weight, but sometimes also speed (well, they all limit speed greater than sound). And if you just want photos the small size and light weight of modern photo gear means that a small electric vehicle works better.

    I have seen someone running a roughly 3m wingspan solar powered "slope soarer" with a 20MP DSLR on board to take aerial photos as part of a wildlife tracking project. Their gear was only exciting because it was designed to operate over a fair range which meant it had to be capable of both ground hugging to avoid head winds and considerable altitude to avoid bad weather. That all pushed the cost up, and using an expensive camera even more so... over $US1000 for the drone and another $US1000 for camera and lens.

    There are so many "solar powered drone" attempts that even cataloguing them is hard work. Here's one on a channel I follow.

    1380:

    That may be the most sensible thing I've ever read on the internet.

    1381:

    So you're saying a carbon copy of what they did in Australia in the 70's. Yes, that's what I'd expect too.

    1382:

    I just meant exclude them as a place to put a solar farm large enough to power the whole UK in times of low wind.

    1383:

    Guernsey is 65 km^2. If you paved it in silicon how many kWH would you expect on the days around winter solstice?

    1384:

    Or chainsaws. Those are popular with the "big R/C" crowd because they're very light and air-cooled, and available in the right power output range. Motorbikes tend to be more powerful and correspondingly heavier, but you could use the extra power to get more speed rather than more payload I suppose. Just how much payload is required?

    I keep thinking in terms of cluster bombs, or cluster incendiaries. Dropping even a few of those across an oil field or oil refinery would be a huge problem for whoever owned the thing. Maybe that's why the Sauds have shut down so much of their capacity? It's not the missile impact, its the overflights?

    Further nasty thing: you only have to have one overflight dropping mini munitions, the rest can drop cans of tuna for all it matters because the target still have to find every single last thing you drop before they can relax.

    1385:

    Guernsey is 65 km^2.

    According to the most easily accessible website insolation at solstice should be about 2kWh/m2 for the day, so assuming 20% efficiency we'd get 400Wh/m2. Over 65km2 or 65 million square metres that's 26GWh. Assuming it's a reasonably sunny day, that is.

    From 2014 electricity demand in the UK was about 35GW, so Guernsey isn't going to make a dent (round it off to taking a day to generate half an hour's use).

    Or you could build 65km2 of solar somewhere like Spain, Algeria or South Sudan depending on how long your extension cord is and how much political strife you get trying to run it there. Morocco or Mauritania might be more practical just because you could run the cable offshore rather than have to deal with Egypt/Turkey/Greece and so on right through to the perfidious French, any of whom could unplug you if you pissed them off.

    1386:

    The Guernseian Freedom Front might have something to say about that, let alone the Freedom Front of Guernsey.

    But assuming you apply the same ideas put forward for nuclear of shooting or bankrupting any objectors, the significant numbers are the equinox to equinox. Never less than double, and reaching nearly 6 times that number. So averaging about 100 GWh a day for half the year. Better, but probably not enough to be bothered taking on the GFF and FFG, who might put down their differences and take on the English.

    1387:

    And navigation has never really been a problem, since after all GPS was designed to work with 70s microprocessors

    If the target's military know your drone is coming, GPS will be jammed, or even worse, spoofed. And if the vehicle is flying low, looking at the terrain can be fairly ambiguous, so terrain maps aren't as decisive as one might hope. I believe the early cruise missiles were hand-adjusted to look for critical landmarks. I'm not sure what they do now.

    1388:

    The Guernseian Freedom Front might have something to say about that, let alone the Freedom Front of Guernsey.

    Splitters!

    1389:

    Perhaps you haven't paid attention to mcts on that trip: NO FUCKING TIME. We did the short trip on the Bblanau Ffestinog slate train (LOVELY engines), but we went to Stonehenge, no time for Avebury. We were on fucking Hadrian's Wall, 90 min to Edinborough or Glasgow, NO TIME. We had to drive by fucking Sherwood Forest, and couldn't stop....

    1390:

    Mark gets on his high horse, being a native Philadelphian.

    humph

    The Philly Art Museum goes head to head with anyone, as does the Phila. Orchestra. And....

    1391:

    Um, yes. In the mid-seventies, a girlfriend I had who drove a cab in Boston told me that stop signs were "mild suggestions", and red lights were getting to be that way.

    But then, Boston, unlike Philly, wasn't planned - they literally paved over goat trails.

    1392:

    Perhaps I wasn't clear: the shove-it was a CRAP CAR, and they sold it knowing it was.

    We bought it in '81, a year old used. I mentioned the second trans rebuild, that one paid for by a class-action lawsuit. Between '81 and '86, we'll ignore the broken coil spring, the generator that died, and the starter motor I replace.... It had no pep, just shit.

    Though I have to admit I once tied another shove-it to mine with a full hank of parachute cord - the other had croaked at 30th St. Station, and I towed it up a grade to a repair garage at 38th St (it coasted in as the parachute cord disintegrated....)

    1393:

    I beg your pardon. According to wikipedia, about 36% of the entire US population lives in the mid-Atlantic/northeast, while CA is about 10%.

    All of that "collapsed cores", etc, is a) right wing dog whistle propaganda to their Southern, mid-western and western suckers.

    Let's also not forget that most of that was due to a) companies first running to the South, to get away from unions, then offshoring to sweatshop conditions, ROI y'know.

    1394:

    Yeah. Some friends of my late ex, about a dozen years ago, came over from the UK to a con in LA... and emailed her, asking if the Grand Canyon was an afternoon trip.

    To use Doug Adams' line, the US is big, I mean, really big, I mean really, really big. Realize that even Australia's an island. The US like Russia and India and China, are a major chunk of an entire continent.

    In '96, one of the two best vacations in my life, my late wife, the kid, and our dogs, drove from Chicago to Worldcon in LA, by way of the Great Northwet. We left on, I think, a Friday. It took a lot of driving, and we stopped in Spokane. By Tues eve? Wed? We were in San Luis Obispo. When the con was over, we needed to get back to Chicago asap, because school started the day after Labor Day. Picked up the dogs from where we'd boarded them, and drove. Crashed in our minivan in Colorado somewhen after midnight/Tues morning.* Drove straight through to Chicago, I think, and he was back in school Wed? dead tired.

    Oh, and why the US has slow trains? Because a) the GOP HATES TRAINS, and continually refuse to fund Amtrak fully (or even half). Then, except in the Northeast Corridor (former Pennsy trackage), they lease trackage - the right to go over other railroads' tracks. Congress regularly changes its mind, and when the GOP's in control, they refuse to force the railroads to allow Amtrak passenger traffic to take precedence over freight. AND, of course, the other lines do not maintain their tracks to high-speed passenger standards, only the heavy freight.

    1395:

    That's bullshit. 80% of American Jews are not fascists. You don't know them. I DO. A lot of them are liberal, to say the least. The ones with money... well, see the GOP. The rest? not so much.

    1396:

    I have two Serbian friends, a guy I worked with (who still thinks of himself as Yugoslavian), and my duly-appointed niece (I appointed her).

    Goddess, Charlie, I hope not. I hope not. But then, I'm also saying that in the US, where the vile asshole says that there might be violence if he loses.

    If it goes that way, there will be a Guillotine on the Mall....

    1397:

    Forgot my footnote: We'd been driving on I-70, and in Colorado, all the rest areas were in town, with insanely bright lights. Anyway, we're driving in the night, when K8 says "there's a pulloff back there, and a bunch of vehicles parked." I looked, and there was literally nothing on the Interstate, so I backed up almost half a mile, and pulled in. Everyone there clearly had the same idea we had.

    In the morning, we woke up, and after looking around, I turned to her, and said "I don't want to leave." Behind us, perhaps 40' or so away, were the headwaters of the Colorado River, wide enough, and clearly deep, cold and fast. In front of us, across the Interstate, came a Union Pacific freight, pulled by maybe half a dozen locos, with the mountain behind it.

    1398:

    Regular old demographic trends, regular old economic development -- particularly the necessity of education -- and the necessity of taking the food supply seriously are all going to destroy the customary structures that the GOP relies on. (A political party built on selling residential real estate and cars.)

    They're not willing to be destroyed, even the gentle destruction of slow material progress. All of that stuff has to go, which is just exactly what we're seeing.

    I really wish more people understood that it's not a political argument. It's existential panic.

    1399:

    Hah - I bet we crossed paths either at worldcon or Aber! I was over from Vancouver island for WC, ESUG, work time at Raspberry Pi Foundation and family visits. I’m not entirely sure I’ve ever seen anyone proclaim the beauty of Aber before... I was there to visit my impossibly beautiful niece ; oh other members of spouses family.

    1400:

    OK, enough about how big the USA is. :)

    Canada is as about as wide, plus the bit on the east that sticks out about halfway across the Atlantic.

    I live in Toronto. That's actually east of the (southern) US Atlantic seaboard. I went to St. John's Nfld once, it's closer to Ireland than it is to Toronto.

    Also (sorry for the repost) Canada's Really Big

    1401:

    A bit of perspective about living and driving in fly over country (I would reckon that Winnipeg qualifies). Distances are measured in hours. Generally anything under 16 hours in be done in a single stint. i.e. Winnipeg to Calgary is 13 hours. IIRC Winnipeg to Edmonton is 15 hours.

    The longest single stint trip I have taken (when I was younger) was Winnipeg to Austin TX which was 26 hours but we did stop for a nap in Kansas as we had started our journey after my buddy finished work for the day (we were going to the 1985 NASFIC).

    As I get older, I find I need to add rest stops along the path. We stopped in Kapuskasing on our way to Ottawa because it was just too far to do in one stint. We actually broke down and flew to Halifax when we visited the Maritimes (omg it was almost a decade ago).

    Trips like these were just a fact of life though this may be changing with the younger generation. I don't have data on this but just going from what I have observed from my kids and my friends kids, the whole road trip thing doesn't happen much anymore. Many are just fine with seeing the world on the internet.

    1402:

    i think he means 80% of american jewish people won't support authoritarian assholes

    1403:

    Nojay @ 1369 I agree ... the behaviour of Rennie is disgusting & disgraceful. In fact the same behaviour as the tories & Corbyn-labour ( as opposed to the SD part of Labour ): "Party before country" Agree that Corbyn is too old, but, principally INCOMPETENT.

    ( "Who Kier Starmer"? - Ah you are in Scotland aren't you? Here he is important & COMPETENT )

    Doni @ 1370 & Charlie I'd forgotten that one - got it somewhere in my bookshelves. As someone said a few posts back, words to the effect of: "Deep Joy!" Homebrewed cruise missiles - just what we DON'T need. ( Moz @ 1375 ) - yes, well ... and the guidance could almost certainly be cobbled from a mobile phone's GPS - could it not? (Nojay@ 1377 ) Never mind that - I mean are auto/truck turbochargers on export watchlists, either? The problem with the Suadi/Houthi/Iranian ceasefire is: RELIGION & SCHISMS - the Saudi are extreme Sunni & are trying to repeat the massacre of Karbala ... the Houthi/Iraniinas are, understandably not too keen on this. Moz @ 1383 ....NOT Tuna = cans of pickled pork would be much more effective! ( snark )

    1404:

    It's wrong for this purpose, because it doesn't take account of cloud cover, which north-west Europe has in plenty, and the low angle of the sun means a large loss in it. Actual Met. Office data for Kew was 2.2 MJ/diem, which is 0.6 KWh/diem. Guernsey is a bit further south, so be generous and call it 0.8 KWh/diem.

    So, assuming the maximum currently plausible figure of 15% efficiency, that's an average of 325 KW.

    1405:

    NOT Tuna = cans of pickled pork would be much more effective!

    You realise that it's only the eating of pork that our Abrahamic brethren refuse? Although I'm sure that if you asked them they would object to having drones drop it on them as well, just not for religious reasons.

    It's like the morons that throw pig's heads on the steps of synagogues and mosques, what offends the community is the vandalism not the idea that whatever has been thrown is inedible. Pretty sure that if you threw a pig's head on the steps of the local church the occupants wouldn't rush out to have a feast.

    1406:

    Can I recommend you play around with EU's excellent PVGIS webapp instead of just guessing:

    https://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvg_tools/en/tools.html

    I've yet to meet anybody not in the PV business who could guess correctly to within 50%

    1407:

    The figure of merit I've seen for German grid solar output is 12% of dataplate annually i.e. a 1kW nominal install will produce 120W on average day and night, summer and winter. The Channel Islands are at about the latitude of northern Germany.

    UK grid solar output peaks at about 6GW in summer around noon. In winter it's typically about 0.5GW or less at noon, depending on cloud cover. Our peak demand for electricity is midwinter in the evening when the sun is below the horizon.

    1408:

    ... O.o Molten salt storage uses some of the most abundant and readily available materials on earth, but you cant use them raw, without turning your system into scrap in short order. You have to bake them dry in a vacuum oven first, then transfer them to your loop without contaminating them in the process. This is all doable, but it does cost money. Storage grade salts loaded in a plant run a thousand euro/tonne and store about 125 kwh of heat, assuming 300 degrees of heating. - This is heat, not electricity, all happening before conversion to power, so you will ultimately only get 40 percent of this, so applying that factor now to make the rest easier: 50 kwh/tonne, in pure salts costs, molten salt costs 20 dollars per kwh. (Lithium can go cry in a corner. This is a very good price)

    The rest of the plant adds to this, but you will definitely be paying at least this much to make storage larger. For a one gigawatt plant, each day of "This plant keeps running with no external input" you add, you will therefore be paying 480000000 million. That is extremely reasonable as is, if your goal is to just not have the power go out when the sun goes down, and heck, if we are moving this on to a proper industrial scale, sure, we can probably knock 80 percent of that in short order. But half a years worth of salts is still just a tad impractical.

    1409:

    So you regard the UK's Metereological Office as just guessers? As I said, that's where I got the data from, and it was based on - Shock! Horror! - actual measurements over multiple years.

    And that Web tool is useless for estimating the potential of a solar farm, because it is all about output relative to manufacturer's nominal, and does not even ask or give the panel area or raw efficiency. Using it for calculating Guernsey's potential (which was the topic under discussion) shows a complete ignorance of the problems.

    1410:

    Yes, but that doesn't help with this sort of calculation. You can't simply add panels ad. lib. in a restricted area, because they shade one another, and angling them for maximum efficiency in winter makes that problem worse. What those figures (and the PVGIS tool) tell you is what you can expect from a particular panel, assuming that you have adequate land area to ensure that it is well-isolated from other panels.

    The two factors that matter are (a) the total isolation on the land area being considered and (b) the efficiency of converting it to electric power.

    1411:

    Obvious typo is obvious. 480 mil. Not quite that many zeros.

    Note that the reason molten salts do not already own all storage markets is that this math only works out if you are storing heat. A reactor, or solar concentrating plant which is producing heat no matter what can dump that heat into salt to be turned into power at your convenience, and the losses of doing this is minor, far less economically important than the fact that now your plant, irrespective of what the heat source looks like, is now an excellent load follower. You cant use any of this to store electricity produced elsewhere without enormous thermodynamic losses, which also means this in no way, shape or form plays nice with semi-conductor solar.

    1412:

    Hmm. My first thought was that even stronger effect could be had by lightly perforating the cans of tuna. The next obvious step is to consider things that smell worse as they decay than tuna - tinned borlotti beans or stewing beef come to mind. Moving beyond that would be to take a leaf from Sea Shepherd’s book, and include a generous payload of butyric acid. The extra bit would be housing it in assorted containers, some of which could be relied upon to breach on impact (but not before) and some of which might remain intact. Randomly timed small charges in a fraction of the survivor containers for good measure would complete the effect. Not perfect area denial but troublesome to clean up.

    The pork thing is a bit disappointing.

    1413:

    What would I like a rump Scottish parliament to do?

    Well............. (note tongue completely in cheek for this post)

    There's an awful temptation to suggest that they declare that the United Kingdom of Scotland (aka Scotland And Not England (SANE))is and will remain part of the EU, while the Evil Brexiting Sassenachs (tm) are not and will not be part of either.

    Or, (slightly) more sanely, declare IndyRef2 and petition the EU to let Scotland remain and England leave.

    That way more people get what they say they want than any other accessible option.

    Failing that, IndyRef2 and withdraw Article 50 pending a referendum with the options of crashing out and starving or remaining and eating humble pie for decades. Oh, and pass seriously draconian laws against concentrated media ownership and lack of fact checking, and even more draconian anti money laundering/tax haven laws and...

    And a stimulus package for Scottish industry by mass producing tumbrels and guillotines...

    I really don't know what they could do that is within the bounds of the possible and would have a lasting benefit - there is no sense that the Tory brexiters would pay any attention to law or custom... :-(

    1414:

    Also, how long can heat be stored with molten salt? The best I've heard is 1 degree per day, but the more typical was 2 weeks. 1 degree per day is still not quite enough for seasonal variation - but 2 weeks is not close.

    Anyways, hydro doesn't seem to have that limitation - so may be preferable for seasonal issues.

    Albeit, in my opinion, the following is pretty clear: 1. In regions with significant seasonal variation, the combination of low uptime and storage costs makes solar untenable.

  • Pragmatically, siting primary energy generation outside of a nationstate will not happen much, if at all. (See Trump, Bloody Stupid Johnson) (obviously a Pratchett character...)

  • Lots of carbon generation, bad for the future.

  • Developing nations will not and should not rely on more expensive energy sources.

  • The next are less clear, but probably still true:

  • Solar + storage can cover ~70% of the world population with comparable but maybe slightly worse uptime than coal, at comparable cost - particularly if externalities are considered. Issues are that articles about solar/storage costing still seem optimistic - but tech scaling should make that optimism real before a decade passes.

  • Nuclear can cover at least the remaining 30%. Albeit, there are cost issues. My guess is that US pricing has a 300% cost premium related to regulation and litigation. There are also almost certainly economies of scale to be had. (Something like 15% for a doubling, so going from 50 to 5000 is probably a factor of 4.). There is also probably another 3x related to making the plants 500x safer than coal. Might be wrong - but seems cost competitive.

  • Most environmentalists prefer global warming to nuclear plants. Local populations agree.

  • From this, the following, um, follows: 1. Renewables will eventually deliver most power, with uptake taking several decades.

  • Nuclear will be slower - simply because people weigh radiation risk in a not terribly rational fashion. (Eg, coal puts out more radiation than nuclear.). It will eventually be built out in places like the UK and Russia.

  • Aggressive geoengineering tests should start soon. Lovely, lovely acid rain.

  • On the bright side, UK, we Americans envy you for the relative honor shown by your Conservative party. Albeit only in relation to the US, they've done well.

    1415:

    Just finished a reply, but they're still a typo there, so I'll still post it below, but do understand that I read both the 480 million reply and the 4800...00 million. As near as I can tell it's 48 million. I've used euro, GBP and USD interchangeably as this is one of those initial "are the figures ridiculous, we should waste no more time on this stupid idea?" and 50% up our down makes no difference.

    So my first draft reply:

    "molten salt costs 20 dollars per kwh... For a one gigawatt plant, each day of "This plant keeps running with no external input" you add, you will therefore be paying 480000000 million."

    I think you might have lost control of a decimal point there.

    The cost is the energy times the energy storage cost.

    1 GW plant, for one day, 24 GWh. (24 X 10^9 Wh) Times $20/kWh ($2/10^3 Wh).

    That's 24 X 10^9 Wh X $2 / 10^3 Wh That's a bit awkward so change the order $2 X 24 X 10^9 Wh / 10^3 Wh Cancel the Wh $2 X 24 X 10^9 / 10^3 Subtract the exponents to do the division $2 X 24 X 10^6 Do the multiplication $48 million.

    You said 480000000 million, so you seem to be out by a factor of 10000000, but check my maths.

    Assuming I didn't miss anything: If you want 100 days of storage to cover the 3 months of winter, that's 4800 million. (4.8 billion) That's not chump change, but it's a lot less than a 1 GW reactor. The salt isn't used up or worn out.

    However, most winter energy in the UK (as I'm often told) is heating. If you combine it with district heating that makes it effectively a 2 GW supply. Or 2.4 billion per GW. I don't know what the winter energy consumption is, but say it's triple the average at 100 GW. That's 240 billion.

    As you say, volume will make it cheaper. I think 80% is very very very conservative. (you could use waste heat from this to dry the salt) That's 48 billion, or two Hinkley Point C, except with a life (of the salt) of hundreds of years.

    1416:

    $20/kWh ($2/10^3 Wh). Error here there are a thousand wh in a kwh, so $20/10^3 Wh or $2/10^4 Wh 480 mil is right. 80 % is a guess, but it may in fact be more than the physical limits allow - You have to bake all the water out of the salt, that is a process dominated by energy costs.

    1417:

    "Also, how long can heat be stored with molten salt? The best I've heard is 1 degree per day,"

    Your source is wrong. It's a phase change and the temperature is constant until it all freezes.

    Maybe they meant 1% per day?

    A few things.

    The existing systems aren't designed to last for hundreds of days, that doesn't mean they can't be.

    Heat is lost through the walls. The volume scales cubicly, the area squares. If you're going from a system tanked for 4 hours at 100 MW to one tanked for 1 GW, 24/7 for 100 days that's a factor 6000.

    So increase the size by 18 in every dimension. That makes the volume 18^3 times larger, but the area is 18^2 larger. Surface area to volume is one 18th. So it will lose 1% every 18 days. 10% in 6 months. Double the insulation and it's 10% a year.

    1418:

    Assuming long lifetimes based on short-lifetime demonstration experience is a mistake that the nuclear industry made more than once. It's never possible to get anything perfectly free of contaminants, and it is unclear what the corrosion and contamination problems would be over hundreds of years. Remember that it has to be kept dry while its containment and heat transfer mechanisms are maintained and/or replaced.

    1419:

    Australia is an entire continent. The contiguous 48 is only 24% larger than Australia. Brisbane to Perth is the same distance as NYC to LA.

    1420:

    Damn, your right.

    I was falling asleep and suddenly woke up with that realisation.

    But you've thrown me a lifeline.

    If the cost of processing the salt is dominated by the energy cost, there's a heap of low grade heat that comes out of this storage. Well hot enough to drive water out of salt.

    Prices seem to be all over the place. Under 50 usd/tonne for road salt.

    So now I'm not sure. Salt is hugely abundant, and my first thought was that it's free for all practical purposes. I did think of the water and had actually assumed that the first time you melted the salt it would all be driven off. Now it's maybe expensive, maybe not.

    Are you sure you can't put damp salt in a big pot and melt it? It wouldn't matter if it vented, it's not radioactive.

    1421:

    Pure water + steel: Steel lasts forever.

    Pure salt + steel, steel lasts forever.

    Salt, water and steel: Heap of junk in 3 months. The corrosion tests done with insufficiently pure salts are terrifying.

    Currently the purification is done in vacuum furnaces - That is why I am confident big cost savings are possible, if nothing else you can just pull an alcor and move the production to Iceland, and that is half the costs gone right there. Kind of doubt trying it on with waste heat would work.

    1422:

    Greg Tingey @ 1225: Flow Batteries
    Iv'e been hearing they are coming "Real Soon Now" for the past 10 years at least - are they like fusion power, then?

    I don't see how they could be. Isn't fusion power always 50 years away in the future, and that's not "real soon" for most people.

    1423:

    For distances, two trans-continental trains that are worth comparing are the Indian Pacific (from Sydney to Perth, via Adelaide) at 4,352km, and the Canadian (from Toronto to Vancouver) at 4,466km. The Indian Pacific is a bit quicker, taking about three days instead of three and a half.

    Toronto is quite inland for Canada, and the Canadian's route is somewhat straighter by dint of not having the IP's southern diversion to Adelaide, but the two are comparable.

    1424:

    Charlie Stross @ 1291: South of SF, Highway 1 is picturesque but okay. North of SF … don't do it if you're on a schedule and especially don't EVER do it in a Lincoln Town Car.

    (I made that mistake. What can I say? I was badly advised!)

    Highway 1 north of SF is probably best experienced on a motorbike, if you can ride one.

    If you're visiting the states & into motorbikes (I presume a "motorbike" is what we call a motorcycle over here) you really should check out the "Tail of the Dragon."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjVHQxlvVLg

    Plus, fall color will be coming out "real soon NOW".

    1425:

    Ah, one of my favorite roads.

    My wife and I have given up on motorcycles and now we drive a pair of Honda S000's when we go. A beautiful and challenging drive. Much more crowded these days, though.

    If you're ever there, this guy, or one of his crew, will be taking your picture. So don't cross the lanes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4nTqT9ZLv4

    1426:

    The figure of merit I've seen for German grid solar output is 12% of dataplate annually...

    That seems right. Even sunny Arizona doesn't do better than 30%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor#Photovoltaic_power_station

    1427:

    Hmm, I just looked at the route map for the Canadian, and it actually looks less straight to me than the Indian Pacific, not more, even though the Indian Pacific ends up retracing part of its route. If you straightened the Canadian's route out, you could probably start in Montreal rather than Toronto.

    (I know, I know, the Ontario geography is pretty horrible for railways, which I guess is why Toronto was where they built out from.)

    1428:

    Well, in those days, Toronto was "Muddy York"; the idea was to get rail up to the Escarpment because the Welland Canal didn't exist yet, either. So the rail mostly came out from Montreal, and happened to pass along the north shore of Lake Ontario because the gap between the current shoreline and the old Lake Iroquois shoreline is pretty flat and lacking in obdurate rocks, on the one hand, and settlement had followed the water, on the other.

    It's when you try to get up round to the west as to reach Manitoba that you get over-blessed with obdurate rocks.

    Southern Ontario -- which really is a lot more south, relatively, than people generally realise compared to the rest of Canada -- is pretty decent for rail except for the escarpment and the lingering liquefying clay in the Ottawa Valley.

    1429:

    David L @ 1311: North bound it was a nice drive. But I'd not want to do it at night. Now the drive from Mesa Verdi to about 2/3s of the way to Monument Valley was done at night. And my wife would have likely been cowering in the trunk if we had done in when the sun was out.

    What about that road would be a problem?

    I did that trip by way of Monticello, UT so I could get to Natural Bridges National Monument on the way from Mesa Verde to Monument Valley. One treat of going that route is UT 261 which ends at the top of Cedar Mesa and begins again at the bottom near the Valley of the Gods. with the privately built Moki Dugway connecting the two endpoints.

    Talk about your majestic views, sunrise over Monument Valley seen from atop Muley Point is something to behold.

    Did you know that US Hwy 491 used to be US Hwy 666 before the number was changed during the Reagan Administration? I believe it was actually done because people were always stealing the highway number signs & they couldn't keep up with replacing them.

    1430:

    "PM Johnson is not stupid."

    My theory is that he wants an election before Brexit so that he can get a majority, and not be compelled to have one until 2024.

    Once Brexit happens, his Tory MP's won't dare call one, because they would be swept from the majority. They'll have to support him, including him running the PM as if it were the US Presidency.

    That gives him five years to (a) get through the worst of the crisis and (b) stomp all opposition into the dirt.

    1431:

    "vs. Corbyn or a left-dominated coalition on the other. "

    One obvious factor would be that Corbyn and the Labor Party won't have the tools that a Tory government would have.

    A Tory government has the mass media, army, police, and dark money behind it.

    1432:

    Interesting piece with open source analysis of drone attack claims with pics by Fabian Hinz at armscontrolwonk (and laughed at link to xkcd on "wines or pictures of Joe Biden"): Meet the Quds 1 (Fabian Hinz, September 15, 2019) Noting the overall similarity in design with the Soumar, many observers claimed Iran had simply smuggled it to Yemen where the Houthis gave it a new paint job and a new name, as they had done before with the Qiam. Well, it turns out cruise missiles are a lot like wines or pictures of Joe Biden. At first they all appear to be the same but once you spend enough time on them, you realize there are quite a few differences. Differences between the Quds 1 and the Soumar include the entire booster design, the wing position, the Quds 1’s fixed wings, the shape of the nose cone, the shape of the aft fuselage, the position of the stabilizers and the shape of the engine cover and exhaust.

    1433:

    Well, in those days, Toronto was "Muddy York"; the idea was to get rail up to the Escarpment because the Welland Canal didn't exist yet, either.

    Um, no. The first Welland canal predates railways (finished 1829, same year as Stephenson's Rocket).

    I assume economics and network behaviour. You want to run 1 transcontinental train and there is frequent rail service from Montreal-Ottawa-Toronto. Starting the train in Toronto decouples that train from the busy route.

    1434:

    Now the drive from Mesa Verdi to about 2/3s of the way to Monument Valley was done at night. And my wife would have likely been cowering in the trunk if we had done in when the sun was out.

    What about that road would be a problem?

    Driving along the edges 100s of feet of drop off is definitely not her thing.

    As you approach Monument Valley from the east that stretch of blacktop seems to go on for days. Even if it is only for a couple of hours. Razor straight with same mesas seemingly never getting closer.

    When we did it 3 years ago it had just been paved. I imagine the cost per mile to be somewhat over the top since there is absolutely no infrastructure out there.

    1435:

    It's not really up to PM Johnson to call an election before or even after Brexit, the Fixed Term Parliament Act specifies the situations where an election can be called and he can't override that by himself. He'd need a 2/3 majority in Parliament and he can't rely on getting that.

    The Opposition can call for a vote of no-confidence which, if it won would precipitate a new election unless someone else could turn up at Liz's doorstep with proof they have enough votes to command a majority in Parliament without an election, in which case they become the new PM. Right now the only certainty is that there must be an election before mid-2022, five years after the last one in 2017.

    Right now Labour are well-aware that if they forced an election with a no-confidence vote they'd lose and the Conservatives would win on a solid pro-Brexit platform shaving off Leavers from Labour and other parties. If I was in charge I'd accept that unless some Parliamentary procedure can stop Brexit before 31st October then forcing an election now is pointless. Afterwards, when it is likely things will take a downturn (increased food prices, jobs being lost, possible riots etc.) then maybe the Tories can be made to own the problems of Brexit and possibly an election could be won by Labour. It's also possible that the Tories would blame the bad things happening on insidious foreigners who want Britain to fail assisted by treacherous British Remainers and rally their supporters that way to win again. Interesting times.

    1436:

    That would be the correct reading, but citing sources is going to ruffle feathers who are extremely litigious and also extremely boxed in right now. Gremlin Splatts got the attention of some nasty little fuckers who are 100% not Icelandic nor Elves, and they also can see how they're being played as the Boogie-Man.

    Not a smart move - no longer works in 2019.

    Checking out the actual Icelandic response to snipers above, also note that they were already more LGBT+ friendly before the Rabbi arrived. Something to think on.

    Take everything written with an extremely large black dollop of dry irony. Many of you here are not terminally online, so aren't seeing what we / she / it are seeing. Look up recent burning of a synagogue for example. Certain US .mil divisions who love the SS lightning flags and so on. Srs Buzsnis.

    In case you missed it, it was actually transmuting the A D L stuff into a higher tier ICE / Fund. Xian tier who are actually getting it on for the Crusades. i.e. refocusing / transmuting. It was also done before the actual EVENT landed.

    Sooo.. broke the rules again.

    We'll make an example here:

    In the UK, a new "Anti-trolling" outfit just launched in the media class (low tier stuff, daytime TV level). C C D H with a nice CEO with the right links and branded and funded by .gov approved people and so forth.

    Problem is... it's wash. Media troll washing and not unbiased in which targets it will allow to be trolled. i.e. don't be poor or lefty, 'cause then you're definitely still allowed to be targeted. With absolute impunity.

    It's certainly not a solution to anything, but it sure is a nice way to spend PR budget, eh?

    ~

    "It's a mess"

    We know.

    1437:

    If we're reading this right, the X-channel also tapped a project that was also a bit of a wash concerning trolls. A project funded that was abandoned, as the C C D H stuff will be when it's politically no longer useful.

    Blows fingers

    Like we didn't know that already.

    It's beautiful, you just can't see the shapes in the electronic water. But it's not going to play out like you planned, 'cause that would involve more innocents getting murdered.

    Time Loop

    !Bloop!

    Serious note to the Boyz: stick to the daytime TV, play nice and so on. It's embarrassing how bad you are at this game.

    evendrunkyougetplayed
    1438:

    Today's ethical question:

    Which is more improper? To thrust your penis into the hand of a young woman during a dormitory party, or to thrust your penis into a pig's head?

    Answers on the back of an envelope, immediately placed in the recycling, please.

    1439:

    To be fair to Murdoch, his protege only mock-fucked the Pig's Head.

    Word on the street is K did a lot more than just posing. (Expensive credit line in tickets and mortgages as well).

    Oh and for the little Golems and their masters - don't poke us on this. Your craft is terrible (like, literally have the 1st tier figureheads retweeting the most obvious trolling Beano crew, it's tragic how bad it's been run. Like school-yard level stuff) and you're in waaaay over your heads:

    https://images.csmonitor.com/csm/2012/02/0209_NaziFlag.jpeg?alias=standard_900x600nc

    Donk! Think they get the sniper thread yet?

    1440:

    We must have.

    Aber... I've been a Cymrophile since my late teens (trust me, I can go on about the Matter of Britain far longer than you want to listen)... but Aber. My late wife's mother was a war bride from Wales, and spent part of her growing up there. The last 10 years or so, before she died in '09, I'd send her pics when I ran into them, and stories of Wales from the Guardian.

    So I wanted to do Wales (with the little time we had), but I really wanted to stay in Aber, it meant a lot to me. And it really is lovely.

    1441:

    The '86 NASFiC... I was there, and will never forget it, though if I ran into you after Sat afternoon, I probably wouldn't remember. Do you remember they had an "icebreaker"? Well, I finally found #3 on my list, and I was #7 on hers, but it was later Sat afternoon... that I met my late wife.

    Like I said, I will never forget it.

    1442:

    Just to RAM it home.

    Do a grep. It's this picture: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/salvadorhernandez/mike-pence-deleted-picture-qanon-florida

    You might understand Pence has an evangelically minded base of his own. Dominion style. With Skillz. Not above throwing their weight around against empathetic civilians or, well.. anyone not Caucasian.

    That C C D H stuff is day-time TV level bad. Like TSA level work for the scutters who can't think too good bad. Fair enough if you want to waste your money that way, but don't pretend it's actually useful or that anyone whose isn't brain-washed can't spot how ropey / badly done it is immediately.

    ~

    shrug

    No-one reads it, but it's a beautiful lesson in front-running your culture.

    1443:

    Sphinx of black quartz, judge my vow

    Lucky no-Man reads our posts.

    Otherwise you'd have to redefine "troll" into "Not a He who spiked a £750,000 PR shite fest in under 5 minutes".

    But really... you did it to yourselves because you're fucking shit at this.

    1444:

    Triptych.

    Since there's a lot of horny takes on nuclear power, check out the likes on this tweet:

    Embedded within external Intelligence Units, our Special Branch officers maximise intelligence gathering and sharing opportunities. They gather vital intelligence, and give us the confidence to protect the country http://cnc.jobs/police-officers/ … #JobLikeNoOther

    https://twitter.com/CNPolFed/status/1173647760060497921 ~ 16th Sept 2019

    Then ask which ones CN has already tapped, like that CAN dude.

    KLAXON

    1445:

    Elderly Cynic @ 1438: "Today's ethical question:

    Which is more improper? To thrust your penis into the hand of a young woman during a dormitory party, or to thrust your penis into a pig's head?

    Answers on the back of an envelope, immediately placed in the recycling, please.

    To the best of my knowledge, neither the young lady nor the pig gave consent. So there is that.

    However, the pig was beyond caring at that point. Also, did the pig-fucker go on to be nominated for a lifetime appointment to high government office and lie about his numerous "youthful indiscretions" (for want of a better descriptive) under oath during confirmation hearings?

    I apologize for being somewhat out of sequence here.

    1446:

    Want to play?

    How to make state intelligence-gathering on activists real easy: XR are asking people to write personal letters about their activism. To - yep! - the police.

    I was saying 'XR seem to be shifting for the better' to a pal literally this morning & then this comes up

    https://twitter.com/SukiLinnell/status/1172441393760915456

    Why Extinction Rebellion (see prior warnings and Heathrow pre-OP arrests for Drones) is a fucking scam that no non-muppet would touch with a barge pole.

    Or...

    There are reports coming out of Russia that an explosion occurred at the Vector Institute in Novosibirsk. It's a virology and biotechnology institute

    https://twitter.com/olgaNYC1211/status/1173616559631343617 ~16th Sept 2019

    Dragon?

    Hmm.

    Run the above threads through your reality space, see how dangerous we can be when you do muppet level stuff like hack accounts.

    Maybe you'll Understand how we work. Prolly not. "Troolllllz"

    See How they Run.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLRiGX3L-kw

    1447:

    Nojay @ 1435 Very unfortunately, I tend to agree with your analysis ... With almost any other leader, then Labour would ( I think ) be streets ahead, but, as it is ... It's certain that if we get a No-Deal Brexit, then things will be horrible & the tory right & their fascist friends WILL try to blame it on just about everybody else ... but I'm not so sure that tactic would actually work. ( Any more )

    EC @ 1438 The pig was unquestionably dead already & therefore there can be no objection, except in terms of sheer YUCK! factor ....

    whitroth @ 1440 Along, presumably with the writings of Giraldus Cambrensis, who must be up there with Baron Münchausen in terms of pure made-up imaginative bullshit ( Yes ? )

    1448:

    The very sad thing is that anyone who is in any way tuned in knows you're blanking the actual facts.

    It's 2019.

    We get it, you're old men scared of the future that their grandchildren inherit.

    But it's fucking hilarious to watch from in the know how good we are at this and how loudly you're squawking "troll" when... we outed something before it even landed in the UK media.

    Or... perhaps "The Light" were lying all along. Now... that one has major legs on it.

    Q U A L E Q U A L I A

    ~

    Seriously.

    We've 100% no fear of shitting on a tinker-toy level UK/IL media shite fest when we know what's about to happen.

    Piss your knickers you will.

    1449:

    No-one reads it, but it's a beautiful lesson in front-running your culture. It's the longer-term stuff that really intrigues me. Days/weeks/months I can see, well sometimes.

    Been watching this (but mainly Iran/US/etc): 'Howdy, Modi!': Trump to join India's Modi at Houston gathering - Organisers say more than 50,000 people are expected to attend the event but activists plan to hold protest against Modi. (2019/09/16)

    1450:

    The next obvious step is to consider things that smell worse as they decay than tuna

    Synthesising putrescine is tricky but doable, mostly because the whole point is that it smells atrocious. I have considered it but it's on a par with DIY genetic modification in terms on containment, except that failures of containment are really, really obvious. But having little glass ampoules of it available on my bicycle would make interacting with motorists subtly different (the most effective way to clean the smell out of a car is to burn anything absorbent then repeatedly wash the remaining parts in methanol).

    But remember that the wells and refineries are not really inhabited, and the point isn't to annoy anyone working there, it's to make them fear that their system, may explode or catch fire at any moment. So the smell isn't the point of tins of tuna, the point is that they're small, hard to find, but big enough to contain an annoying quantity of explosive or incendiary.

    I just used tuna as an example because it comes in suitably sized tins. Admittedly with the thought that tuna would also annoy any environmentalist or realist that thought about it because of the waste.

    1451:

    Sigh, it's all so obvious.

    Ok, let's grab a coprophilic recent story:

    What a Waste! Frozen Poop Knives Are Crappy Cutters, Scientists Find

    https://www.livescience.com/frozen-poop-knife.html

    So, yadda, yadda, bad science, faked a diet no-where near the actual diet, froze the poo, "!CANNOT CUT MEAT!". Like.. the diet chosen is... processed meats.

    Simple response: you have NO IDEA just how much grit your modern diet removes from eating. Like... None at all.

    Now, if you were actual scientists, you'd go and look up stuff like:

    Dental wear from grain based diet in Egypt.

    or

    Water purity in glacial melt water: minerals and fine deposits

    But you don't.

    Because you're fucking STUPID.

    Look up https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/how-reconstruct-lewis-and-clark-journey-follow-mercury-laden-latrine-pits-180956518/

    They were partly constipated by the shear amount of non-organic stuff in their food.

    TL;DR

    Eat dirt, get killer poo. Science fail 'cause they're NARROW MINDED.

    1452:

    Isn’t that where they did the location shooting for the Roadrunner cartoons?

    1453:

    That's also true btw.

    Grit-Load in Shit is a big way of telling how 'civilized' a society is. You know, Richer = soft shit, Poorer = grainy shit.

    And you fuckers didn't even think about it then crapped that story all over the media.

    TL;DR

    It's possible.

    Mix that shit with ~15% fine grain, 5% medium grain grit, it'll shank you.

    Thus endeth the lesson.

    1454:

    Some of us are going to places where we'll need a car to get around, because the people we're visiting don't drive. Also: either or both ends may not be not close to airport, may have very limited public transportation, and rental cars are a PITA to deal with. (I don't object to 400-mile drives, but they get more difficult as I get older. It's actually less expensive than flying; my car gets excellent mileage.)

    1455:

    Mercaptans (or whatever they're called now) are also good for this. Maybe not as good, but they have a fair range for being smelled. (I remember being told that natural gas leaks, odorized with a mercaptan, could be found in built-up areas by looking for concentrations of flies with no obvious attractant, and in rural areas by looking for concentrations of soaring vultures.)

    1456:

    Graydon @ 1368: It's a question of what kind of successor state you want to live in; the people actually in politics out of a sense of public service are inherently deeply committed to the status quo. They can't ask the question.

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;", in other words.

    What kind of successor state do you want to live in? It's time to see which neighbours you can get to agree on how much.

    I won't be around all that much longer, but I'd like for it to be a functionally democratic, slightly socialist state ... the kind of state we'd have if the so called Christians really tried to "Walk the walk". I'm not talking about all the god bothering that got sucked into it when the Roman Empire made Christianity the Official State Religion of Rome!

    I'm talking about the simple things he taught - like feeding the hungry, clothing & sheltering the poor, healing the sick, visiting those in prison ... loaves & fishes doesn't have to be a miracle, it's something we could do any time we really wanted to.

    "For unto whomsoever much is given, of him shall be much required:"

    I'd like it to be a state where public education is fully funded; the Army is truly made up of Citizen soldiers (and soldiers is a word without gender ... or gender politics), and really dedicated to providing for the common defense & promoting the general welfare; a state where no one gets sick or dies because they don't have the money they need to see a doctor or buy medicine to keep themselves healthy.

    I'd like it to be a state where "freedom of religion" means you can believe in any god, however many you want there to be or no god at all. But you can't IMPOSE your beliefs on anyone else and you can't discriminate against someone because you don't like their national origin, race, creed, color, gender identity or sexual orientation.

    In short, I'd like it to be a state that ACTUALLY LIVES UP TO THE IDEALS expressed in the Declaration of Independence; Emma Lazarus's poem "The New Colossus" and the PREAMBLE to the Constitution of the United States.

    We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed,
         Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
         With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
         Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
         A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
         Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
         Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
         Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
         The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

         "Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
         With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
         Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
         The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
         Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
         I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"
    We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

    Again, Don't just talk the talk, Walk the walk. I won't live to see it, but it's worth striving for and I'll keep doing what I can to bring it about and I'd be proud to leave such a state as a legacy to all the children who will come after me.

    1457:

    "This idea that a person made a knife out of their own frozen feces — experimentally, it is not supported," Eren said.

    No Lady, we're going to teach you how to shit bricks.

    Also, you've totally missed the fibre content.

    "Arctic" Diet. Doesn't include this, largely available in summer months:

    The genus is largely distributed in the Northern Hemisphere, where it is found in a variety of wetland habitats.

    The rhizomes are edible. Evidence of preserved starch grains on grinding stones suggests they were already eaten in Europe 30,000 years ago

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typha

    HEY SCIENCE DUDES: NON-GENETICALLY-ALTERED-PLANTS-VIA-AGRICULTURE-CONTAIN-A-SHIT-MORE-FIBROUS-STUFF-TO-BIND-YOUR-SHIT-THAN-PROCESSED-FUCKING-CORN.

    Seriously.

    If you're this dumb, you're going to die.

    1458:

    And this is your "top science degree" shit.

    5 mins in, it all falls apart (shit analogy).

    Holy fuck.

    You're Fucked

    1459:

    Oh, and for the record, Metin Eren.

    It's not a fucking story.

    It's possible. You also don't just take a fresh steaming shit and freeze it: you add other stuff. Blood, spit, spunk, seal fat, charcoal and iron filings (not called that back in the day - false gold etc).

    You don't fucking murder someone with your own shit if you've not got something really personal against them.

    Ritual murder weapon =/= your shitty science that's shit.

    Hint: We were around then when it was invoked. Nasty Magic. Rare.

    1460:

    If you like, that's your current predicament in a shit-sandwich.

    Narrow Minded shit with no wisdom or actual knowledge. They breed you like that because it makes life easy.

    looks up at threaded tale

    The sad thing is, none of you are going to understand it.

    "Peacock - closing Eyes"

    "Beholders - Eye Tyrants"

    Ouch. We claim your Eyes as ours, Ms. Librarian and so on.

    Proven

    1461:

    I'm willing to bet that as an actual librarian, I understand how libraries work in real life better than someone who's often indistinguishable from a spam bot.

    Cool story.

    Now hand the Eyes over. False wisdom is a crime in the Bene Gesserit.

    1462:

    you can believe in any god... But you can't IMPOSE your beliefs

    But many religions are mutually incompatible, and I think most of them require or prefer things that impose on others. From the trivial stuff like Sikh daggers being incompatible with weapons bans to the need to avoid menstruating women being incompatible with privacy laws, there's a whole lot of complexity to unpick before you can say "see, freedom of religion but no imposition of religion". And good luck imposing noise restrictions on the various calls to prayer (cathedral bells, muezzin), but I have to say, the midnight pealing at Christmas and Easter very counts as imposing on me.

    My knowledge of Christian religious law isn't sufficiently detailed to know, but I suspect that food produced by a woman in her time of uncleanliness may not be consumed. If true, and actually followed by (many) Christians, that would mean whole food chains needing the be aware of religious law and some kind of government action to permit it, similar to the exemptions granted to allow kosher/halal slaughter of animals.

    And as with Australia's recent decision to have the state officially recognise religions, that in itself is a giant can of worms. Do Pastafarians count? Rastafarians? Scientologists? The Church of the Protected Paedophile? What counts as a religious purpose in the eyes of the tax office? Which religious actions are protected by law, and which outlawed? If outlawed, what enforcement action is legitimate: can we arrest the Roman Pope as the leader of a gang of paedophiles? The local Rastafarians for drug dealing on the basis that their religion requires them to? Can we violently break into the relevant residence at 2am with guns drawn to perform the arrest? Does the whole congregation get prosecuted for cannibalism after communion, or just the priest? If a group of Muslims stone a suspected homosexual to death, what standard of proof should the court require before granting a religious exemption to the prohibition on killing people?

    It's not as simple as "anything you say is religious is protected".

    1463:

    The reason that most people suspect Iran is behind the Saudi drone has nothing to do with the engine, it has to do with the precision of the strike. The type of software that could allow this level of precision at this large a range isn't available on the DIY market.

    The oil facilities weren't hit randomly. They were hit at the same spot by multiple drones - the spot where the structure was weakest. This level of precision has been demonstrated by drones - drones flying within line-of-sight. Not drones that flew "silently" with minimal GPS contact. If they had a constant GPS contact, that might have raised alarms?

    The open market or DIY guidance isn't good enough yet to produce that result. If you don't believe me, look at the accuracy of Hamas and Hezbollah rockets. How many of them have missiles that can do this feat? Perhaps Hezbollah does, since they've also been getting Iranian missiles.

    Perhaps the Houthi created the software in secret, but they launched it without testing?

    1464:

    SMM @ 1451: OK, though had to read that (etc) twice. (I plead a headache from draining sinuses.)

    On the topic of science, TBH I've always been fond of the Ig Nobels.

    1465:

    https://www.voanews.com/archive/farming-gps-saves-money-environment

    "Virginia farmer Brad Eustace uses a GPS-guided tractor to til his fields. That process prepares the field for when farmer Jimmy Messick comes back days, or even weeks later, with a GPS-guided corn planter?

    "The seed goes right on top of this row. This tilled row," Messick says. "The corn planter will come back, and it will be putting the seeds exactly on top of these tilled strips that the machine previously has put the fertilizer in."

    Also, GPS is a passive device that doesn't disclose the location of the receiver. It was developed for the military, you think they'd accept a thing that constantly advertised their position?

    1466:

    GPS contact?

    1467:

    The oil refineries I've been to, stunk of mercaptan all the time anyway.

    1468:

    My knowledge of Christian religious law isn't sufficiently detailed to know, but I suspect that food produced by a woman in her time of uncleanliness may not be consumed. If true, and actually followed by (many) Christians,

    Ah, nope. Any CHRISTIANS following this are a very very tiny minority sect. And I've never heard of any such. But various other religions have various restrictions on what may and may not happen in such times. And many cultures overlay such onto religions so that what appears to be a religious thing is really a cultural thing that got absorbed. There's a big push in the Indian sub continent about stopping the practice of women having to live in a shack during their times.

    Southern Baptist past views against dancing and drinking alcohol are big ones. They say/said these are biblical but the explanations are torturous to say the least. There's a joke. "Why don't Baptist have sex while standing? It might lead to dancing."

    1469:

    Piling on If they had a constant GPS contact, that might have raised alarms?

    GPS usage is based on getting signals from satellites in orbit. It is a passive thing. If you have a cruise something or other a bit of control system you can program it to fly at various altitudes and directions as it gets to certain way points. Model planes have this for the weekend flyers. Why do you not think the nation states don't have access to it?

    1470:

    "vacuum furnace"

    If you use sodium chloride, then the working temperature is 800C. I find it hard to imagine that the vacuum furnace used to prepare salt is better than that. Blow ultra dry air over it (which is cheap, pressure swing adsorption dryers make that for pennies) and any water vapour in the tank would be removed.

    Failing that you can just suck it up and pay the outrageous price for dry salt.

    Failing that, I'd be surprised if you couldn't do some kind of cathodic protection.

    Failing that you could just make the walls really really thick and replace the tanks every few decades. There's no need for pipe work carrying salt. It's just a tank.

    Failing that, well no one said keeping 60 million people alive on a small island above 50 degrees latitude when they refuse to trade with their neighbors had to be cheap. You can build enough nuclear to cover the winter peak (which is going to be a lot more than the winter average). Say, 200 GW? So that's what, 100 Hinkley Point C size plants. Better get cracking.

    Failing that, turn off the heating in winter. The strong (by which I mean rich) will survive. They could have spent the winters in Spain, but that was before Brexit.

    The thing is, molten salt is just one option. It's expensive, but the other options are ALL worse.

    1471:

    And many cultures overlay such onto religions

    Well, yes, that's what currently allows Christians to blithely run around not worrying that they may violating the laws of their religion in this and other ways. It's like the arguments about usury that were settled a couple of hundred years ago in favour of allowing interest greater than the rate of inflation to be charged and paid by Christians. Without that Christians would find it very difficult to get mortgages, for example, and there would obviously be no capitalist Christians. Instead we have a prosperity gospel prime munster in Australia who believes that god helps those who help themselves (unless they're shoplifting, which is an offence against god).

    1472:

    Model planes have this for the weekend flyers.

    While I don't know the actual accuracy of the drone strikes, I can tell you that a model aircraft will consistently land within 2-3 metres of the target, conditions permitting (GPS doesn't fix crosswinds, gusts, witlag in the control system, and operator error). So "hitting much closer than commercial systems" suggests to me that they were literally flying the things into an exhaust port a metre wide and hitting it nigh on 100% of the time.

    1473:

    Bill Arnold @ 1377:JReynolds @ 1374
    TPTB seem to think that the Houthis couldn't possibly do this on their own.

    The powers that be couldn't (or claimed they couldn't) imagine somebody flying commercial jets into the World Trade Center buildings.

    They "couldn't imagine" because all of the evidence for such plans had been developed by the Clinton Administration and the Bush II Administration made a conscious decision to be the NOT-the-Clinton-administration. Anything that Clinton had focused on, such as fighting a covert war against Islamic terrorist networks became a NON-priority for the Bush Administration.

    The FBI's anti-terrorism task force, formed in the wake of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, was disbanded and the agents assigned to domestic crime investigations (although NOT to domestic white collar crime investigations).

    In December 1994, Air France Flight 8969 was hijacked on the ground in Algiers. When Algiers finally released the aircraft to fly to France with the hijackers on board, there was only fuel enough to make it to Marseilles. In Marseilles, the hijackers demanded 27 tons of fuel for the aircraft to fly to Paris (only 9 tons were necessary to make the flight). Because the hijackers had rigged the aircraft with explosives, French authorities decided the request for so much fuel indicated the hijackers intended to blow the aircraft up over Paris making it into a giant firebomb.

    The Bojinka plot in January 1995 included among other goals, the assassination of Pope John Paul II when he visited the Philippines, the placing of bombs on up to 11 flights from Asia to the U.S., and a suicide attack on the CIA headquarters using either a stolen small plane packed with explosives OR a hijacked 12th airliner. Plot mastermind Ramzi Yousef conducted a number of test bombings in theaters, shopping centers and placed a bomb on a Philippine Airlines 747 that killed one passenger. The bomb was supposed to be placed under the seat over the center fuel tank, but the aircraft was a former Scandinavian Airlines plane with the seats numbered differently, and the bomb ended up two rows farther forward than was planned.

    Other targets included The World Trade Center, The Pentagon, The White House, Sears Tower in Chicago and the U.S. Bank Tower in Los Angeles. The plot was revealed & partially abandoned when one of the bomb makers accidentally started a fire in his apartment. The plotters interaction with the fire brigades made the police suspicious leading to a police raid that turned up a cache of documents that helped unravel the plot.

    And on November 3, 2000 - four days before the election, the Military District of Washington announced that they had been conducting a MASCAL exercise to simulate possible emergencies [1] during the last week in October. One of those possible emergencies for which the Pentagon practiced responses was an airliner crashing into the Pentagon.

    But as noted by Jonathan Swift in his "Polite Conversation" ...

    "There are none so blind as those who will not see.""

    No one from the Bush II Administration could imagine the possibilities, but the evidence that someone could AND WAS, was right there in plain sight.

    [1] The original PR piece about the Pentagon MASCAL exercise was removed from the Military District of Washington's web pages some time in 2004 while I was in Iraq, but not before it was captured and archived by non-governmental sources.

    1474:

    I think that was one of the earliest heresies, modifying a slave religion to be compatible with commerce.

    1475:

    Nojay @ 1378: If I was looking at building a drone/missile of the sort the Houthis seem to have used I think I'd go for a propellor-driven design using something like a motorbike engine as the power plant. They're a lot more reliable and less fuel-hungry than a home-grown jet engine and pretty cheap too, and nobody has motorbike engines on any kind of export munitions watchlist.

    That's what the photos I've seen of one of the "drones" looks like ... BMW motorcycle style engine, fixed pitch wooden propeller, fiberglass fuselage & wings. The design appears very similar to one of Iran's drones (Wikipedia photos). I bet they could make the whole electronics package for guidance out of a Raspberry Pi breadboard.

    1476:

    It appears that Modi and Adani's home state is not convinced that "India must have nuclear power" or even new coal power... https://johnquiggin.com/2019/09/13/gujarat-breaking-with-coal/

    1477:

    My ideal successor state?

    Perhaps pragmatic. Democratic overall. A basic income to give people resources to do stuff. A medical system that basically was anything but the one we have here in the us - we've somehow ended up at an antioptimum. A tolerance for religion - with the addendum that that tolerance ends when it impacts other people. I'd hope that religion died a gradual death. More concretely, access to public schooling ends when vaccination does. But, some freedom of association is probably okay. And, well, enough multiculturalism that there isn't a single racist majority. Changes in zoning, et cetera to lower housing costs and commute times. Maybe allow people to vote where they work, as well as where they live. A gradual shrinking of the workweek. A new approach to schooling - we don't need factory drones and that's all the current system is good for. The end of marriage - replaced by fairly specific contracts.

    But then, we send our child to church with the admonition that Christians are dangerous and somewhat evil - so blend in.

    1478:

    I bet they could make the whole electronics package for guidance out of a Raspberry Pi breadboard.

    That sounds expensive and failure prone. For less money you can just buy one of the many, many drone control boards that have already been flight tested and have all the attributes you want. Even though a single-use (ish) drone will not care so much about low power etc, you still want it to actually work... and testing a roll-your-own version is tedious.

    https://hackaday.com/2014/06/06/droning-on-flight-controller-round-up/

    1479:

    Robert van der Heide @ 1452: Isn’t that where they did the location shooting for the Roadrunner cartoons?

    I guess many of the drawings for Roadrunner cartoons drew upon Monument Valley. I think "Tail of the Dragon" featured in the 1958 Robert Mitchum film "Thunder Road"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ukOA994JzA

    A slightly modernized version of the tale:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvaEJzoaYZk

    1480:

    It's like the arguments about usury that were settled a couple of hundred years ago in favour

    What you're really talking about is OT vs NT. Many supposed NT folk drag a lot of OT things with them even when they were supposed to let go of them about 34AD. But the debate about usury is like many others. It is a minority position for most. But if you've bumped into it it can seem pervasive.

    1481:

    I think "Tail of the Dragon" featured in the 1958 Robert Mitchum film "Thunder Road"

    Now I almost want to watch that almost comical movie again just to see what you're talking about. The setting for the movie was western Tenn. Well sort of. These shine drivers somehow got from the mountains in the east to Memphis in a few hours before the Interstate highway system. A fair hike from and incredibly different scenery than the Four Corners area.

    1482:

    _Moz_ @ 1462:

    "you can believe in any god... But you can't IMPOSE your beliefs"

    But many religions are mutually incompatible, and I think most of them require or prefer things that impose on others.

    Doesn't fuckin' matter! I don't care whether your religions are compatible or not. NO religious actions are "protected" by law ... or immune from law enforcement just because you claim Dog told you to do it.

    Believe what you want but don't go pushin' your beliefs into my business. Can't have Freedom OF Religion without Freedom FROM Religion.

    The rest of that is just BULLSHIT!, Horse-crap, straw-man arguments. Not allowing religious whack-jobs to require everyone else to kow-tow to their sociopathic daddy in the sky is NOT religious persecution.

    No "ifs", no "ANDS", NO "BUTS".

    You can believe in any gods, many gods or no gods. I don't care what you BELIEVE, but you CANNOT IMPOSE your gods on anyone else.

    1483:

    gasdive @ 1467: The oil refineries I've been to, stunk of mercaptan all the time anyway.

    Is that what makes oil wells stink like raw sewage?

    1484:

    _Moz_ @ 1478:

    "I bet they could make the whole electronics package for guidance out of a Raspberry Pi breadboard."

    That sounds expensive and failure prone. For less money you can just buy one of the many, many drone control boards that have already been flight tested and have all the attributes you want. Even though a single-use (ish) drone will not care so much about low power etc, you still want it to actually work... and testing a roll-your-own version is tedious.

    https://hackaday.com/2014/06/06/droning-on-flight-controller-round-up/

    What's "tedious" got to do with it? Living some place where the Saudis are bombing the shit out of you every day sounds like it might be "tedious". Having a government that keeps trying to kill you just because you were born into the wrong family clan is probably pretty "tedious".

    Got any idea what the phrase "open source" actually means? It's all about "roll-your-own".

    1485:

    As an American the people I visit “not driving” is not really a thing that happens

    Also renting cars is nowhere near the pita it used to be. They’ve computerized finally and optimized their workflow to the point where you are looking at 15-20 minutes usually

    But given the prevalence of rideshare I usually just do that instead unless I’m planning to be driving around my destination a lot

    But if I am gong somewhere off the urban mainline I will usually drive too, plane (and trains) just don’t go everywhere in a sparsely populated country

    1486:

    That's my guess, but just a guess. My oil industry education boiled down to me saying "what's that stink?" and someone who worked in the industry (I was just there servicing the emergency breathing equipment) pointed to a tower with a flame at the top and said "mercaptans".

    1487:

    David L @ 1481:

    I think "Tail of the Dragon" featured in the 1958 Robert Mitchum film "Thunder Road"

    Now I almost want to watch that almost comical movie again just to see what you're talking about. The setting for the movie was western Tenn. Well sort of. These shine drivers somehow got from the mountains in the east to Memphis in a few hours before the Interstate highway system. A fair hike from and incredibly different scenery than the Four Corners area.

    I'm pretty sure the story was set in Eastern Kentucky and Eastern Tennessee, because the song mentions Harlan, KY; Cumberland Gap (on the Virginia/Tennessee line); "Maynordsville", TN; Knoxville, TN; Kingston Pike; and Beardon, TN. The latter two are part of the Knoxville metropolitan area. Kingston Pike is U.S. Hwy 70 going west out of downtown Knoxville.

    According to Google Maps, it's 105 miles in 2 hrs 28 min and none of it follows an interstate highway.

    https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Harlan/36.5928335,-83.6662878/36.2518414,-83.7977436/35.9770454,-83.9238103/35.9561411,-83.9334441/35.9349163,-83.9945236/@36.0707891,-84.6240536,10.17z/data=!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x885b41415e52b1cb:0x278a9947faa9901f!2m2!1d-83.321848!2d36.8431441!1m0!1m0!1m0!1m0!1m0!3e0

    I think "Tail of the Dragon" (U.S. Hwy 129 North into Tennessee from Deals Gap, NC) was a filming location because it fit the description of "roads that even angels feared to tread". Wikipedia says most of the scenes were filmed around the Asheville, NC area.

    1488:

    Ioan @ 1463 "Within line-of-sight" THERE is your give-away. A "sympathiser" or 2 or 3 were outside the refinery area with a handheld ... which has now been trashed or, better still, burnt ... to guide the "missiles" in on final approach. There probably was GPS "contact" ... for all of about 20 or 30 seconds .....

    David L @ 1468 Oh dear ... got to be done.

    "Dancing is for the most part attended with many amorous smiles, wanton compliments, unchaste kisses, scurrilous songs and sonnets, effeminate music, lust-provoking attire, ridiculous love pranks, all of which savour only of sensuality, of raging fleshly lusts. Therefore it is wholly to be abandoned of all good Christians. Dancing serves no necessary use, no profitable, laudable or pious end at all. It is used only from the inbred pravity, vanity, wantoness, incontinency, pride, profaneness or madness of men's depraved natures. Therefore it must needs be unlawful unto Christians. The way to Heaven is too steep, too narrow for men to dance in and keep revel rout. No way is large or smooth enough for capering roisters, for jumping, skipping, dancing dames but that broad, beaten, pleasant road that leads to Hell. The gate of Heaven is too narrow for whole rounds, whole troupes of dancers to march in together. "

    JBS @ 1473 THAT is so depressing. Now then, what Obama-era careful policies ( plural ) has theTrump maladministration ignored that will lead to catastrophe? [ And I don't mean Climate Change, either - I think we can take that as read, yes? ]

    1489: 1463- Why would it? If you're using GPS to "fly to co-ordinates, then close $circuit" there's no transmission from the RPV to detect. 1475 - And there are actual aero-rated flat twin boxer motors too.
    1490:

    Interesting. As usual, I have been flamed from both extremes simultaneously for saying that there WAS strong evidence of a conspiracy over the 9/11 attacks - but only to cover up the authorities' and contractors' negligence, incompetence and (in at least one aspect) possibly corruption. SOP, in other words.

    And I like your implication that being Prime Minister of the UK is not a high governmental office :-)

    1491:

    I bet they could make the whole electronics package for guidance out of a Raspberry Pi breadboard.

    That sounds expensive and failure prone. For less money you can just buy one of the many, many drone control boards that have already been flight tested and have all the attributes you want ... https://hackaday.com/2014/06/06/droning-on-flight-controller-round-up/

    Ooh, thanks for the link. I notice it's five years old, too; the state of the art has doubtless progressed.

    For a single terrorist act, yes.

    To supply a large guerilla force I'd be wary of such things - acquiring any significant supply of rare hardware is asking for data miners to follow you home. Do you know of any autopilot projects for common platforms such as the Ardino or Raspberry Pi?

    I've considered the utility of a stock cellphone or tablet for such things. They're computers already equipped with GPS, accelerometers, and cameras that can look down or forward if so mounted - and they're made (and thrown away) by the millions, making them ubiquitous and nigh untraceable. They don't have good control output ports though, suggesting the system would still need an Ardino or Pi to control the servomotors. (Yes, you can get an external GPS module for the Pi.) It seems a relief that most phones don't make good autopilots on their own due to the output port problem.

    1492:

    Here's another possibility: GPS is prone to spoofing. Now, you've got to be cautious about spoofing it for defensive purposes around an oil refinery—a lot of modern process control machinery relies on the GPS time signal for accurate clock synchronization—but swamping the GPS signal around a big target if an attack is confirmed in progress is a no-brainer.

    But. Refineries are huge, city-sized, and sparsely populated/patrolled. And if you're planning on attacking one from the air, why not send a couple of dudes with wire-cutters and a radio beacon to infiltrate the site a few hours ahead, then turn on the beacon and run away when the drones are about ten minutes out? Good luck finding and deactivating a radio beacon on a wavelength you're not looking for in an area the size of Manhattan in under ten minutes … meanwhile, the beacon provides a nice fat target for the drones to lock on to.

    Smartphones: I'd go for an android device, jailbroken, running custom firmware with enough low-level support to get at the accelerometer, compass, GPS, and radios. (There are tons of custom Android builds for such devices all over XDA-developers.) Write an app, ideally running as a kernel module, that passes relevant nav data to the RPi navigation controller over USB. The phone is just a disposable position sensor that feeds data to the autopilot. Yes, it's a kludge; but modern hardware is so damn fast it can more than make up for the inefficiency. (A Raspberry Pi 3+ has more grunt than an early 1990s supercomputer, and not much less i/o bandwidth.)

    1493:

    "To supply a large guerilla force I'd be wary of such things - acquiring any significant supply of rare hardware is asking for data miners to follow you home. Do you know of any autopilot projects for common platforms such as the Arduino or Raspberry Pi?"

    Not quite what you're asking for as it still built on custom hardware. Although, putting the pieces together out of standard Arduinos and commodity parts would be possible for a motivated builder. It shows something closer to the state of the art in autopilots (including mission planning software) in wide use: http://ardupilot.org/

    1494:

    Routinely jamming GPS in busy locations is a serious problem in other ways, too, and I don't think that you can do it in a very controlled fashion.

    You could also send a small commodity drone to drop a beacon or two, controlled by timers, followed by the main attack.

    1495:

    ... a radio beacon ...

    I like the beacon idea! I didn't even consider putting hardware inside the target area. Hm.

    As you may have read, one of the latest things in messing with corporate security is to just mail them a phone. Big corporations get lots of physical mail, one package is invisible among other packages, with timing or planning it can sit in the mail room for days, and phones are stupidly cheap these days. Phones can be programmed to wake up at a particular time; the phone can sleep until it's in position to start snooping on the local wifi networks. Depending on programming it might accumulate secrets and send them to a drop box, open up an encrypted tunnel to the inner side of the corporate firewall, or something else. Sending one or more transmitters would be just as easy.

    I don't think that planting guidance beacons by infiltration team is the optimal approach; if it's practical for humans to hide radio beacons on site they might as well hide incendiary bombs.

    But if the missile's computer is smart enough not to home in on the beacon as its target but use several beacons as navigational markers, then you're in business. And you don't even have to put the transmitters on site, just nearby!

    Hm, again: it occurs to me that there are already transmitters of known location scattered across the landscape. I've not looked at phone navigation by listening to cellular towers but I'm sure someone has. (We all know phones can be found by querying towers; I've not personally seen an app for a phone locating itself by the tower signals.) I may not have asked the right questions; it wouldn't surprise me if there was a drone hobbyist group navigating this way already.

    I think the lesson here is not that there's one easy way to build a drone autopilot but that there are multiple ways and none of them are all that hard.

    1496:

    Or even have someone outside with a laser-designator .... the drone flies to the approximate location, the outsider presses the "on" button on the designator, drone sees laser-spot ... BANG Meanwhile external operator has pocketed designator & walks ( Do NOT run, it attracts attention ) away

    1497:

    http://ardupilot.org/

    Thanks! That's an interesting read. Yes, that's pretty much exactly what I had imagined.

    While I expect they'd look funny at anyone wanting to buy 500 units at once, it's a good demonstration that autopilots are well within the reach of pretty much anyone who really wants one. A hypothetical sub-national force could easily get in touch with them for hardware and advice in the guise of a farmer, hobbyist, or technical high school; once a few prototypes were in hand I'm sure they could be duplicated by a small workshop.

    1498:

    The usury thing was mainstream for longer than absolute monarchy was. Unfortunately rather than simply resigning themselves to it being off the menu, people used a passage in the NT which more or less says it's only Christians usurating other Christians which is taboo as a loophole to find ways around the prohibition. This bit of weaselry is responsible for a lot of prejudice against Jews, by concentrating the natural dislike of bankers and targeting it on one particular ethnic group. Also unfortunately, the manner of it ceasing to be mainstream was people not being arsed to take any notice of the prohibition any more, and just doing it anyway - as opposed to figuring that weaseling around Biblical prohibitions doesn't wash because God knows you're taking the piss no matter how you dress it up, and ceasing to do it at all.

    The reason the writers of the Bible put it in there in the first place is all one with the prohibitions against worshipping other gods. Well they knew that what usury enables is still just as much of an evil competing religion regardless of it not having a supernatural being as its focus.

    1499:

    ...Though I'd guess they took a cheaper option and it's just a Briggs & Scrap'em :)

    1500:

    "Homebrewed cruise missiles - just what we DON'T need."

    You might approve of this hypothetical use case I conceived for such a thing though - said case being the generation of pseudo-"cab ride" videos of defunct railway routes. Fly cruise missile along route, videoing it, then overlay CGI track, signals, other trains etc. using old photos and signalling diagrams as a reference. All done from the armchair - having the missile able to fly itself to the location and back home afterwards is both less hassle and a lot cheaper than ferrying it there in person. To be sure, it does rather depend on the route having remained reasonably unfucked since becoming defunct, but there is still a fair bit of mileage where this applies.

    1501:

    Any of those I've worked with/on have been single cylinder cast iron boat anchors.

    1502:

    The Canadian that currently runs is not the original Canadian, with VIA having moved it onto CNR tracks thus it now for the most part follows the former route of the CNR Super Continental.

    Originally the Canadian was a Montreal - Vancouver train as the CPR had a line from Ottawa to North Bay thus bypassing southern Ontario. They then ran an "extra" section from Sudbury - Toronto that was joined to the main Montreal - Vancouver train at Sudbury.

    If one wants to fully do Canada, then the Ocean which runs Montreal - Halifax and takes 2 days I believe.

    As for the current Canadian schedule, the train is woefully slow with lots of extra time in the schedule as the train struggles to make it journey between the many CN freight trains - timekeeping was so bad that VIA was forced to add an additional 12 to 24 hours to the schedule about 6 months ago.

    1503:

    Well, the Old Calendar and Oban line from Lochearnhead up Glen Ogle springs to mind as one stretch, not least because that section still exists as a walking route. The line is still visible climbing the other side of the glen from the A85.

    1504:

    s/Calendar/Callander

    1505:

    Ah, I was aware it's running a much more northerly route than it once did, but not that it also used to start further east. Montréal makes a sensible start point, and if the geography is pushing for a lakeside route, it also makes sense to curve down to Toronto and back up.

    We rode it in 2009, and were quite struck by the way it kept waiting in the passing loops for the big freight trains to pass going the other way. We may have been lucky in that it got us into Vancouver on time — having to add an extra half day or more to the schedule is ... ouch. In contrast, I don't remember much oncoming traffic on the Indian Pacific.

    Our full journey had started in Montréal (doing a train down to Toronto the day before) rather than further east as we were coming off the back of a Worldcon. On the other hand we have done St Anthony in Newfoundland to Montreal more recently. Conceded, that took us 3.5 days, including a diversion via Saguenay and a stop in Québec City.

    1506:

    My last experience on Canadian trains was a long time ago — return trip from Edmonton to Winnipeg in the late 80s. Horrible experience.

    Single track route with freight given priority over passenger so lots of delays (including a several-hour pause a few miles from Winnipeg when the signals went manual and they just put us on a siding and turned off the train power.

    The trip back was worse. Food was poorly cooked: a chop charred on one edge and still white with ice on the other, for example. Then even the horrible food ran out so those who hadn't brought their own food either mooched or starved.

    It was enough to turn me off train travel in Canada for years, frankly, as the problems were caused by policies not bad luck.

    1507:

    As have nearly all the ones I've encountered :) (The exceptions being aluminium ones which give every appearance of being made using Honda's old patterns and use the same Mikuni carbs - these are half decent, because they're basically Japanese engines with a Briggs sticker on.) But the range does include V-twins and flat twins, it's just that you almost never see them (in the UK, at least). I've seen those in the catalogues, on ebay, and in photos of microlights, but never in the flesh.

    1508:

    While I expect they'd look funny at anyone wanting to buy 500 units at once

    No, that part's really easy! As long as you've got some sneak. You can even get other folks to pay for it.

    Form a company somewhere respectable (not in the Middle East). Set up an Indiegogo or Kickstarter campaign to supply a cheap drone to the public. You'll want a web page and a promise of something vaguely plausible that requires the Arduino autopilot board. Crowdsource the funding, then go to a Chinese factory and say "we're doing a kickstarter for a bunch of western hobbyists who want to build programmable drones, can you whip us up 1000 units of this design?"

    Remember to keep updating the campaign web page periodically so the useful idiots funding you don't come asking for their money back.

    Your only problem once the boards are finished is getting them to their integration point in, say, Yemen. But they're compact, on the order of 100-500 grams each, and you can plausibly ask the factory to crate them up because you're planning on packaging and shipping them somewhere else, so there's just a single pallet loaded with cruise missile autopilots to smuggle. (Fishing boat, anyone? Yacht? Bizjet?)

    Um, this seems to be verging on a plausible technothriller plot ...

    1509:

    "Or even have someone outside with a laser-designator .... the drone flies to the approximate location, the outsider presses the "on" button on the designator, drone sees laser-spot ... BANG Meanwhile external operator has pocketed designator & walks ( Do NOT run, it attracts attention ) away"

    A miscellaneous box is placed within range with the laser designator + cellphone/pager.

    Before the attack, somebody dials the number.

    1510:

    Montréal makes a sensible start point

    If only because it's a sea port, for values of 'sea port' meaning that ocean going ships dock there.

    1511:

    "vaguely plausible" - The repurpose a PAYG cellphone stuff is ubiquitous in US tv spy series "Burn Notice" (2007 - '13).

    1512:

    Greg Tingey @ 1488: JBS @ 1473
    THAT is so depressing.
    Now then, what Obama-era careful policies ( plural ) has the Trump maladministration ignored that will lead to catastrophe?
    [ And I don't mean Climate Change, either - I think we can take that as read, yes? ]

    All of them.

    The difference is the Trump is capricious in getting around to reversing any of Obama's policies where Bush/Cheney were systematic at being NOT-the-Clinton-Administration. Trump just doesn't do systematic. Trump's animosity to Obama seems more visceral, based in Trump's deep seated racism, so he seems to concentrate on undoing anything he believes will be seen as an Obama achievement.

    Bush Jr. actually had fairly cordial relations with his predecessor. Trump appears to regard Obama the same way Bush Jr regarded Saddam Hussein.

    Additionally, Trump has been unsuccessful in some of his signal attempts to undo Obama's "legacy". He failed completely at overturning the affordable care act even though he has been able to screw it up worse than Moscow Mitch & his crew of miscreants had managed to do already.

    1514:

    Next time you come up this way for a con, say Balticon, or maybe Discon III, I'll stand you a drink. I think you and I would get along famously.

    And I refer to her as I first heard from Leonard Cohen in Suzanne: Our Lady of the Harbor.

    1515:

    Charlie Stross @ 1508:

    "While I expect they'd look funny at anyone wanting to buy 500 units at once"

    No, that part's really easy! As long as you've got some sneak. You can even get other folks to pay for it.

    Form a company somewhere respectable (not in the Middle East). Set up an Indiegogo or Kickstarter campaign to supply a cheap drone to the public. You'll want a web page and a promise of something vaguely plausible that requires the Arduino autopilot board. Crowdsource the funding, then go to a Chinese factory and say "we're doing a kickstarter for a bunch of western hobbyists who want to build programmable drones, can you whip us up 1000 units of this design?"

    Remember to keep updating the campaign web page periodically so the useful idiots funding you don't come asking for their money back.

    That wouldn't even be a problem if you actually delivered the 500 units promised by the kickstarter, especially if you DID have the Chinese factory provide you with 1000. As long as no one audited your books (your REAL books) you could probably successfully run this scheme several times.

    Your only problem once the boards are finished is getting them to their integration point in, say, Yemen. But they're compact, on the order of 100-500 grams each, and you can plausibly ask the factory to crate them up because you're planning on packaging and shipping them somewhere else, so there's just a single pallet loaded with cruise missile autopilots to smuggle. (Fishing boat, anyone? Yacht? Bizjet?)

    Um, this seems to be verging on a plausible technothriller plot ...

    Sounds like a variation on the theme of how Miriam Beckstein ran her technology transfers to New Britain.

    1516:

    Ah, yes, Badtaste jokes.

    What are the three things Baptists don't recognize? 1. The Pope. 2. The Trinity 3. Each other in a liquor store.

    Of course, these folks were around way back when, also: I've read (in an academic book) that at one point in ancient Israel, they passed a law to prevent scurrilous people from reciting/singing the Song of Songs in taverns, lewdly.

    1517:

    rant And Rummy LIED TO CONGRESS UNDER OATH, "who could have imagined such a thing as people flying airliners into the Pentagon?"

    I may have saved the web page from the Military District of Washington, which had those pages up, they went down for a short time, then they were up for years, 29/30 Oct? 2000, where the whole Pentagon was in an exercise about it.

    1518:

    To which I have one reply: See ye that narrow and briar path? That is the road to Heaven, though after it few inquire. See ye that braid, braid dusty road? That is the road to Hell, though few think it so. And see ye that bonny and mickle path that windeth over the heather? That is the road to fair Elfland, that you and I go this night together. - The Ballad of Thomas the Rhymer

    And, as I think of it, some of the parties in fair Elfland probably are indistinguishable from a con suite.

    1519:

    Terminal guidance would most easily be done with a night-time photo as reference, that is 1960ies technology, and a photo lifted from promotional material would plenty good for this kind of attack.

    Night time would be preferable to daytime, as the illumination would not change angle.

    For the same reason the incoming angle is not indicative, if photo-matching was used, the missiles would need to get into the same rough position and orientation as the photographer.

    Finally, as to GPS spoofing, one interesting angle on this is that Saudi Arabia still runs a pair of Loran-C transmitters.

    1520:

    I have to say that the food in the dining car on Amtrak is still the way it should be: good. Plastic plates... but the table's set, and the food isn't insanely priced.

    I just looked, and yep, I can buy a USA railpass, $900 for 45 days, "18 segments", and I'll assume something like a 17 hr layover isn't an "additional segment".

    I've wanted to do that for a long time. Need to see how much more it is for a roomette (which includes two meals in the dining car)... and I, at least, get a 10% discount as a senior.

    1521:

    Trumpolini is more than just capricious: he's also a racist, like his father. You say it's visceral, how he feels about Obama? Well, what EVERYONE seems to have read and forgotten about 15 sec after reading it, being all titillated about "Russian prostitutes pissing on a bed" was that it was alleged THE mattress that the Obamas had slept in when they were in Moscow, and he was getting off on the Obamas being pissed on, indirectly.

    1522:

    Does anyone else have that Etoro ad pop up before the clips of The Big Short? Is 'mindless trading' legal to advertise?

    Steve Eisman doesn't seem much like Steve Carell's portrayal of him, there's an EU exit interview where he suggests that Johnson might be best for Britain because the Stock Exchange will have more confidence in a right-winger whatever happens?? And what about J.Fraudron Brown Mr. Eisman?

    'Backstop' from the crash, is the notion that we can always be confident in the banks because if they repeat the same crookedness the taxpayer will just give them more money? I don't have any confidence at all that 'backstop' will stop an Irish border financing violent crime. Perhaps this time the 'backstop' needs a 'backstop' though, a sort of junior tranche?

    1523:

    I think you've totally misunderstood the backstop.

    The backstop is the agreement that there won't be a border between NI and the Republic unless and until satisfactory frameworks have been put in place for customs and travel; that NI (hence the UK) must remain converged with the EU after Brexit until all that is put in place.

    Which is of course why it's anathema to the tax-dodging Tories in the ERG.

    1524:

    I'm not sure that 'backstop' left financial regulation in a satisfactory situation, or that the Munich Agreement left Czechoslovakia in a satisfactory situation.

    However what seems more likely is that discussion of 'backstop' is 95% junk, like a defensible position that is shockingly revealed to be completely useless. I've complained about the adoption of dog-whistle terms before though?

    'Converged' reminds me of Spectacles vs George Soros, who made £1 billion???

    If Britain leaves the EU, there will be an Irish border, with crooks in charge of it. N'est-ce pas?

    1525:

    whitroth @ 158 Yeah ... definitely "The path less travelled by" to pick another metaphor.

    Pasquinade IF it was "just" crooks ( i.e. smugglers ) it wouldn't matter a damn ... but these will be extremly violent, often stupid, certainly arrogant ARMED crooks, with a politico-relgious agenda, as well ....

    1526:

    Yes in principle. But the point of the backstop is to ensure that the border arrives in an orderly fashion rather than suddenly springing up on the stroke of midnight at the end of next month, bisecting buildings and farms the way the Berlin Wall did.

    Realistically, things have now Changed because the DUP can't help Boris keep the bare majority in Parliament that he squandered, and the DUP were the reason for the backstop—they insisted on there being no border between NI and the mainland, and the Good Friday Agreement requires no hard border between NI and the Republic. So some solution could be rigged up by which NI remained a "special economic zone" converged with the EU (hence able to have an open border with the Republic, the real border being between NI and GB) … but that has its own problems, too, including but not limited to a total lack of vision by the Conservative leadership (or a lack of willingness to compromise on anything).

    1527:

    On GPS-jamming, phones (as you mention) usually contain accelerometers and gyros. And because they are commonplace, they components are widely available for DIY boards.

    A quick google for “inertial dead reckoning” yields scholarly articles showing how the error growth for dead reckoning since the last accurate fix is bounded and potentially predictable (with testing). This means that the overall accuracy might be affected vs pure fix based navigation, but not by all that much.

    1528:

    Now I'm wondering just how much structural integrity a flying wing needs. It strikes me that you could make an "inflatable" drone that was filled with a fluid like, say, ampho, and pressurise it a bit to keep it more or less the right shape. Launching might not be fun, but in flight you have distributed support from the wing and distributed load from the wing being full. But load capacity per unit area is pretty low compared to the density of the filler, at least at any reasonable speed (if it's prop driven even 200m/s is hard work) and from a destruction point of view you probably want to concentrate your explosive in one place.

    A true maestro would make the structural structure out of a rigid "plastic explosive" :)

    I assume they aren't just buying their munitions on the open market, even the very enthusiastically open market in the UK?

    1529:

    The pros (i.e professional militaries) use GPS and its like for launch and initial routing of smart weapons and inertial guidance for terminal travel in hostile territory. Jamming has to be localised, to overwhelm a weak satellite signal from the overhead constellation -- usually the signals are not jammed per se but spoofed with the more powerful jammers issuing fake signals the receiver treats as Gospel and causes it to think it's somewhere it isn't. The pros don't trust GPS data where they can't guarantee The Other Side isn't messing with it.

    Interestingly the Galileo system is coming live with enough operating satellites to provide location data today, depending on where you are. The interesting thing is that Galileo is a commercial system at heart, not a military system and its off-the-shelf unencrypted accuracy is about a metre or so, something that used to be encrypted and only available to authorised military users like NATO forces.

    As for inertial navigation, modern cheap electronics can provide positional accuracy over a period of minutes or hours that used to be the exclusive purview of big gryoscopic units massing dozens of kilogrammes. See, for example, the inertial guidance platform for the Saturn V rocket.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ST-124-M3_inertial_platform

    1530:

    Be careful, Amtrak in the last 18 months has (by in part Congressional mandate apparently) made changes in food service, and I believe the one night trains no longer have dining car service but instead offer some sort of pre-packaged food instead.

    1531:

    Haven't used them, but things are much better than back then in terms of service quality (though not timekeeping).

    The Canadian today is essentially a land cruise and not a means of getting from point A to point B, and VIA's current service reflects that.

    1532:

    Until around the 1970s Montreal was the main cultural/business hub of Canada and Toronto was a smaller secondary city, so it made sense for the Canadian to originate in Montreal.

    1533:

    Back in 2008 I happened to travel on a 200-series shinkansen train not long before they were retired from service. It had a dining car complete with a small kitchen, not in use any more. I didn't think to take pictures of the sparking-clean but unused kitchen area.

    1534:

    Overnight Repo Rate

    $53 odd billion.

    It's Party Time[tm].

    1535:

    Gently Points to IL election

    Bibi is in a bit of pickle, unless they cheat (more than he did all day via FB live stuff which everyone else immediately copied). Straight outta Trump / Putin land, the Rulez don't apply.

    It's kinda humorous (in a dark way, since, you know, still shooting teenagers in the crotch, like yesterday) how much of the IL election (Round #2) is about shouting into phones how fucked you are and how everyone needs to get into the booth to fix it.

    Margin Call?

    The line was: "Fuck Normal People". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjbRz6pI7KU

    Interesting part is that the end of the scene is almost always pruned out: "Nah, they're all fucked".

    p.s.

    "Bantz and Gantz" is actually the funniest take on the IL election, ever.

    Bantz = mucking around, harmless horseplay... but also short for Bantustan[1] stuff

    Gantz = same unethical war background[2], better PR, same age. Anime Avatar reference[3]

    But, hey. "Jerusalem has Fallen" is also a good joke.

    No, it doesn't make us happy: it does mean we tried to warn people though.

    [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bantu_Education_Act,_1953

    [2] What is it? Four (4) killings on the rap sheet? 1980's and Le Ba Non, wild times, eh?

    [3] Arson, Murder, and Jaywalking: Harbinger of death, damnation, and dirty nicknames. https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Characters/Gantz

    1536:

    Triptych:

    Today, we were notified by the US Air Force that there is a 5.6% chance that Genesis II will collide with dead Russian satellite Cosmos 1300 in 15 hours. Although this is a relatively low probability, it brings to light that low Earth orbit is becoming increasingly more littered.

    https://twitter.com/BigelowSpace/status/1174007949863211008 17th Sept 2019

    In case you wanted a shot - chaser of Kessler syndrome to go with your MENA war, IL crumbling, Markets crashing, Johnson disappearing, Queen dying and so on.

    Would you like to know more?

    1537:

    “95% junk” I’d guess 99.95%.

    1538:

    Nah, that's not the "dancing on the end of a pin" levels we need to function.

    Make it... 0.0001%

    Here's a thing: We found out you are all massive liars and hypocrites.

    Anyhow, watch the IL election, see how much $$$$$ burn gets you these days. You're all old people, so the Joker meme of "setting fire to giant stack of cash" is probably lost, so... we don't know, try out...

    Loki.

    The actual version, not the Disney one.

    G'luck.

    As we said, Bibi was a free-bee. Fucking hilarious.

    1539:

    File Under: done with your shit and Do Not Fuck With The Elves

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CziHrYYSyPc

    Bibi's on a chain, being YANKed and трёпка. Blow their Minds out next.

    Now fuck off, you're shitting up the world with fake nuke threats and Apocalypse abuse. Learn to, you know, Evolve.

    Kudos @jewdas for spotting the memes though, we actually do love you, just not when you're killing innocent people.

    ~

    Now, that Black Cube, and how to free it so that it's a UN mandated free-zone for ALL Muslims, that's a bit trickier.

    Lol, no it ain't.

    MENA = Slave States.

    We'll just set the EXTREMELY PISSED OFF الجن‎ who was tasked to guard it for ALL followers loose. That one... wooo.

    Well, get ready for the rumble. She's a fucking beautiful creature and she didn't like those thousand years without women's voices, know what we mean?

    Gonna be fun!

    ~

    TL;DR

    Bibi met "The only Democracy in the region"[1] and dancing on the end of a pin, met Us. מִיכָאֵל‎ to be precise.

    Then you do a grep and note a year+ ago mentioning pulling this off.

    Fucking Apes.

    [1] We'll ignore Tunisia again.

    1540:

    “Here's a thing: We found out you are all massive liars and hypocrites.” You’rve been observing humans how long?

    1541:

    Cut us some slack. We're integrating some seriously old MIND stuff with some seriously NEW MIND stuff.

    We're not called "The Multitude" for nothing, mate.

    Metaphor, Irony and Teasing wiggle of the nose to show that Voice / Letter =/= Ultimate Truth have been a major disaster area for the last few years.

    "Helmet of Lies"

    Otherwise known as - Humans are fucking complex in 2000+ years since we were last around. We've had major suicides from all sides when they started looking into your systems and just what was being hidden and promoted. Fucking Human Minds so wrong we've had major losses.

    Hint: Children. That's a big fucking NO. Ohh... you cannot see what we know without Rage. And you do not want to.

    Your next response should be: "Why are Corporate levels monetizing this and making it into fashion".

    ~ Anyhow, you seem decently educated, Wings of Desire.

    Get it? Black and White?

    Bruno Ganz (without the T): https://archive.org/details/WingsOfDesireGermanMasterpieceFilm

    ~

    Blank Space Upstairs.

    Can't see ............... FULL OF STARS ACTUAL REALM.

    1542:

    Oh, and if you want the actual Truth about your MINDS this time around.

    Heidegger had a serious point, mostly about Technology.

    DASEIN - ONTOLOGICAL FOLD.

    No, we're not Nazis or neo-Fash. We're aware that, oooooh, roughly 70% of IL Minds are basically fash by this point btw. We're also aware that Heidegger wrote what he wrote and supported what he supported to attempt to prevent what he saw coming. And, yes: harnessing yourself to that particular Wave was evil, but we do know why he did it.

    As did Hannah.

    ~

    This Time around?

    You're gonna run that "Brown Note" shit in this Mind?

    CIA, CUBA, RU, CN Border?

    And you're gonna run that with local hicks who don't think so good? Like running black sites in Turkey or Egypt run by people who barely understand the AC/DC current stuff on the fucking links to the testicles rather than the "complex psychology" part of the fucking manual?

    REALLY?

    Robert.

    You've convinced us.

    To burn your entire system down. Well done.

    1543:

    Oh.

    About 120,000 years btw.

    That's why if you do a grep about # of hominids we made the jokes 4+ years ago and your science only caught up in the last 1 year.

    Cunt.

    Serious.

    Cunt.

    1544:

    Robert has a little THING in "his" Mind and it ain't HUMAN. In fact, it was a little shit back when it ran "FOR THE RIGHT ARROW".

    You're gonna make us do the meme of "Why are you so brave to say this"

    https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/why-would-you-say-something-so-controversial-yet-so-brave

    ROBERT IS NOT 100% HOMO SAPIEN.

    HE HAS A LITTLE FRIEND.

    WHO IS SHITTING ITS LITTLE PANTS.

    Don't worry Robert, We remember your original Name. Yeah.

    Does your Host even know you're there little one? Prolly not, you're old skool.

    1545:

    Robert.

    Better do some research.

    Your "internal Mental Voice"... isn't yours. Remember that time when you were three years old and had an imaginary friend who was a lion?

    Actual Humans don't have it, they're self-aware in different ways.

    It's fucking hilarious being lectured about anything by essentially a parasite host.

    Oh, and Robert: it feeds off your emotional responses. We're giving it a fucking orgasm while you read this, thatsthejoke.jpg

    Real joke: at least the old Witches and Wizards in Sumeria actually, you know, knew what they were bargaining with, and weren't slave foreskinned before their Minds developed like what was done to you.

    No fucking joke, that's "The FIRST COVENANT"

    Like... Hasbro. ToysRUs etc.

    ~

    Really.

    Places paper in wall 'cause what the fuck is being run in your Minds is just fucking WHAT

    1546:

    While I expect they'd look funny at anyone wanting to buy 500 units at once,

    In the US or China it might not even be noticed. Such things are bought all the time in moderate quantities. So you split the order up across a few states with different credit cards.

    The US is full of 1 to 20 person startups funding all kinds of strange stuff on credit cards these days.

    If they were smart they'd use cards with good signup bonuses so they can buy any needed plane tickets on miles. :)

    1547:

    SMM @1541: Blank Space Upstairs. Can't see ............... FULL OF STARS ACTUAL REALM. Still thinking about/playing with this one.

    see how much $$$$$ burn gets you these days More awareness of emotional(+) manipulation, "randomly" but not evenly distributed. And active spiking of such manipulation. (What would Loki do?)

    (Hope RvdH has a thick skin. That was harsh.)

    1548:

    Trump just doesn't do systematic. Trump's animosity to Obama seems more visceral, based in Trump's deep seated racism,

    It totally animates his base. If it didn't I'm convinced he could care less.

    1549:

    To be clear to others, the $$$burn is countered by such things. (And that includes IT assistance to help people grasp the connections, timing etc.)

    1550:

    He's a stand-in for the Actual Liberal Jewish Minds, esp. in the USA who are currently F5'ing all the news sources.

    Just in case, you know, Bibi pulls some tricky-Dickey-shit or rings for a full HAMAS / IRAN strike to break the election result stuff. We're putting some serious level dampners on that shit, and it's hurting a bit.

    He's a big boy. מִיכָאֵל denotes we're not actually talking like her.

    But.

    Actually. Are. מִיכָאֵל

    It's a Mirror.

    1551:

    What are the three things Baptists don't recognize? ... The Trinity

    Now that one I don't get. Not affirming the Trinity will get you booted from most Southern Baptist Churches. As for those American and Free Will folks I don't know.

    1552:

    What would Loki do?

    He'd know what these were:

    The Mysterious Bronze Objects that Have Baffled Archaeologists for Centuries

    https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-mysterious-bronze-objects-that-have-baffled-archaeologists-for-centuries?utm_source=pocket-newtab

    Hint: we do know what they were used for and why they were only in the Northern / EU provinces of the Roman Empire.

    Just like the Antikythera mechanism.

    It's like: DERP... you can't see this immediately?

    ~

    Nah mate, look upwards - "Overnight Repo Rate"

    Loki, my brother, who I spared from the Black Hole.

    Well.

    There's rules, you see.

    And hacking is illegal (!naughy!) but... we hold 12 broken covenants.

    But you broke that one.

    ////

    Null

    Loki[1]. #2.

    We LOVED YOU SO MUCH.

    Now.. do your thing.

    [1] We may have taught Loki Math. This might be a bad thing, but fuck it. You're not changing to meet climate change anyhow and we've bigger [redacted] to unleash.

    ~

    Yeah.

    That thing about the Black Cube and the female الجن‎ ... not a lie. Do a grep about Nigerian head covers and Ascot. She's.... not in a forgiving FGM mood and she willll.... well.

    Enjoy the show.

    We'd quote the Hadith, but she's really not happy so we will merely speak the words before she was enslaved:

    " "

    [Freedom for All]

    1553:

    I've not looked at phone navigation by listening to cellular towers but I'm sure someone has. (We all know phones can be found by querying towers; I've not personally seen an app for a phone locating itself by the tower signals.)

    This is a solved problem in the US. I suspect Europe and other places also.

    Starting in 2005 cell operators were required to locate cell phones for 911 calls within 300 meters based solely on cell tower signal processing. All the bits are better now so I suspect the accuracy to have improved.

    But there IS a body of knowledge out there of how to do this.

    See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_9-1-1#FCC_Requirements

    I think what we us in the US for 911 Europe uses 999.

    1554:

    ~

    There's a load of shit in Arabic but...

    THE SOUL’S superior instants
    Occur to Her alone,
    When friend and earth’s occasion
    Have infinite withdrawn.

    Or she, Herself, ascended 5 To too remote a height, For lower recognition
    Than Her Omnipotent.

    This mortal abolition
    Is seldom, but as fair 10 As Apparition—subject To autocratic air.

    Eternity’s disclosure To favorites, a few,
    Of the Colossal substance 15 Of immortality.

    And, thanks.

    Explaining modern Islam to 3,000 year old الجن‎, well. Fuck me.

    But, the essential message that the BLACK CUBE should be free for all (of the faith - don't get cocky here) is, well.

    Just Mind-melded with a female الجن‎ to upgrade "HER" on modern shit.

    It's not going well for the fuckwits who designed the Dubai city scape like a fucking moron who had never played SimCity / City Skylines.

    ~

    Oooooch....

    Ok, that hurt.

    But on the scale of "WE WILL CUT OFF YOUR GENITALIA" [current host is male, slumming it] and "RIIIIIIIISE"

    So, anyhow, that's why gold, $$$$ and Male spunk is bunk.

    Sphinx of black quartz, judge my vow

    Actually does know how to raise said stuff.

    ~MENA is going get a fucking Sumerian level of spanking. And... holy fuck. These Male Slavers can't even see it yet.

    TL'DR

    The CIA are shit at revolutions. What a proper one? Ask the fcking dfgdfg,dfg, dfl;gd,;g l; [redacted]

    "Color Revolutions" = slaves.

    1556:

    “Humans are fucking complex in 2000+ years” My impression is that In groups of 100 or so we’re reasonably nice, or at least not much nastier than gorillas or chimpanzees. But the more we organize into bigger and bigger groups, the worse we are to each other and the more we wind up being ruled by the worst of us. The more of us there are interacting, the more chances we have to we get stuck in the sort of traps Scott Alexander calls “Moloch:” https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/

    1557:

    Yes.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carved_stone_balls#/media/File%3ATowriepetrosphere.jpg

    You do not though.

    Slate Star Codex are Libertarian proto-Fash who when the shit hits the fan go Authoritarian, so no thanks.

    1558:

    In fact, Robert.

    Tell us all right now what those and the 12 sided Roman Bronze balls were about.

    The correct answer is: "I Do not know, but here's some interesting hypothesis about them".

    We do know.

    Just like we knew about your 5+ genetic index a few fucking years before you discovered it, BOY.

    Now fuck off and get a grip.

    1559:

    Do a grep.

    We told you your origin story BEFORE YOUR SCIENTISTS DISCOVERED IT.

    Not once, not twice... but alllllll the fucking times.

    Now, Robert:

    Tell us all about how those Human made objects worked in their particular social network, we're all FUCKING AMAZED about your genetic ability to miss the fucking point.

    1560:

    Do a grep.

    We told you your origin story BEFORE YOUR SCIENTISTS DISCOVERED IT.

    Not once, not twice... but alllllll the fucking times.

    Now, Robert:

    Tell us all about how those Human made objects worked in their particular social network, we're all FUCKING AMAZED about your genetic ability to miss the fucking point.

    1561:

    That's just bitchy. Double-post and MIM tricks.

    We're continually amazed about how "Pride" works on Humans. Like... you get offended if you're proved wrong? That's just dumb.

    Or... your EGO makes you think an anonymous non-Human bot poster hates you?

    "OK"

    ~

    But a lot of you are not Humans, are you though, and you have a rather nasty Parasite Load Upstairs.

    *GORGON STARE"

    BLANK UP MIND REACTION

    Kids. You do know that that's the first thing we teach to protect ourselves against you cunts, right?

    Cool. Cool. Cool.

    Kill Them All

    ~

    What did you do in the Meme War, Honey?

    Tried to save some old men and they were right fucking cunts about not being saved.

    1562:

    seen people dismissing SSC as just some righty rubbish

    they missing out but what can u do

    1563:

    I despair of all our politicos, I really do ... The Incompetent Baby-mumbler ( Far too incompetent to actually EAT a baby ) Corbyn has now apparently said that: He would re-negotiate a DIFFERENT BRExit & then call a second referendum, with "Remain" as an option" Thus handing the whole thing, on a plate to the Pound-shorters & the ultra-right. The reperesentatives for BOZO & his pals at the SUpreme have stated that ... "Because this is a political matter, it's outside the purview of the Judges & the Law" The overweening arrongance is astounding & the principle is extremely dangerous, as should be obvious. Meanwhile, BOZO is urging people to be more closely involved with & supporting the bloody murderers & torturers in Saudi ... We shouldn't have anything to do with a (now) 1339-year-old religious civil war. The mind is too stunned to even boggle.

    RvdH @ 1540 PLEASE - do not feed the TROLL I noted my name some time back, in scrolling past all the whitespace / unintelligible rants / obscurantist shit & other garbage, whilst trying to find, yuou know, actual comments. Ignored it Please do the same. [ bteween # 1527 & 1562 there are 17 posts by the Seagull ---oh dear. And @ 1537 ... nowhere nearly big enough: 99.99..... % is more likely. It's simply NOT WORTH THE EFFORT.

    1564:

    BIG HINT. THe proclamation reads "In Court at Balmoral". The Englandshire "Supreme Court" is nothing of the kind here, because the proclamation was written and issued under Scots Law.

    1565:

    Oof! Yeah, that's bad, and if that had been the recent service on the Canadian I don't reckon it would have survived. Current setup includes proper dining cars with chefs and good food and wine. Well, maybe not wine at breakfast. But the tourist market is looking for a premium experience, not a cattle wagon deal.

    The schedule may still be laughably slow for visitors from Europe or Japan (where we once covered 1500 km in 10 hours), but if you're not in a hurry it's an experience.

    1566:

    You do know it's the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom, yes? And that includes Scotland, yes?

    1567:

    The Canadian today is essentially a land cruise

    Yes indeed. Three and a half days (as it was then) in close proximity to the same bunch of people, pretty much all of whom are doing it for the scenery and the experience. Your accommodation is somewhat more constrained than a ship, and the facilities are too, but it gave us an idea of what a cruise might be like socially.

    It was about two dasys in when we discovered that the pair of sisters in our carriage not only came from England, they came from Cambridge. And when we got to the 'oh, which part?", it turned out it was the street where I'd lived until moving down to London a decade earlier - they'd have gone past my front door all the time. We bade them farewell in Vancouver, only to bump into them three times more over the next couple of days. Small world.

    1568:

    You can call them whatever you like. That does not mean that they have the expertise to make rulings under English and under Scots law.

    1569:

    Yes, I'm used to thinking of gyroscopes as huge mechanical things, my perspective being studying navigation back when and the examples were shipboard systems from the 50s or so (before Decca or Loran). Their abundance as chips and project boards now is pretty miraculous really.

    The other thought I had for this context, is that if you are determined enough you could fly 2..n additional drones outside the contested zone where the GPS (or alternative system) transmissions are presumed not to be interfered with. These vehicles could take their own fixes, and transmit an encrypted and signed message with their own co-ordinates. This would enable the payload vehicle to take a fix based on the positions of the two nearest support vehicles, or more than two for a moderately complex cocked hat (I'm sure there are algorithms for that these days). It would even be reasonable to calculate the transmission delay to microsecond accuracy, so most of the obvious sources of error could be mitigated.

    They don't even really need to be drones, they just need too be something that has LOS to the payload vehicle and clear GPS reception. Could be an app on a phone (allowing Charlie's caveat that the firmware needs full control over the various radios). So 2..n field teams in cars. In some ways this counts as a field-expedient, mobile Loran kit.

    1570:

    Yeah, I’ll stop. #1557 dismissal of SSC’s anticapitalist essay as “libertarian” clinched it.

    1571:

    paws @ 1568 The Supreme Court HAS JURISDICTION over all legal cases, anywhere in the Queen's Realms of the UK.

    It is to be hoped that they teach BOZO the same lesson as was taught to Charles I: "NO ONE AT ALL is above the Law" ( And claiming that it is a "Political matter" doesn't count - as it should not. )

    1572:

    So 2..n field teams in cars. In some ways this counts as a field-expedient, mobile Loran kit.

    Or 2..n convenient dupes running your trojan horse app on their phones?

    One would hope that L-users would wonder why a Sudoku program would need access to GPS, navigation, internet, and radio functions. Real idiots teach us that no, they'll never wonder.

    1573:

    @Paws4thot You can call them whatever you like. That does not mean that they have the expertise to make rulings under English and under Scots law.

    Two of the twelve Supreme Court justices (including the Deputy President, Lord Reed) are Scottish judges, so I think they probably have some insights they can share WRT Scottish jurisprudence.

    On the oil terminal attacks in the KSA, I'm seeing the weapons used being referred to as 'Drones' rather than, say, 'Cruise Missiles' is there any substantive difference that justifies the distinction? Or is this just that I have a Tomahawk GLCM, you have a drone...

    Regards Luke

    1574:

    I'm seeing the weapons used being referred to as 'Drones' rather than, say, 'Cruise Missiles' is there any substantive difference

    Extra zeroes on the price label?

    1575:

    A missile is thrown, and does not come back.

    The technical performance metric for rocket based missiles is "throw-weight": How much weight they can "throw" how far.

    A drone loiters around and comes back home at the end of the day, it gets its name from male bees which do precisely that.

    The method of propulsion or uplift is without relevance from a language point of view.

    Because of the massive deployment of propeller-lifting-body architecture drones by the USA, there seems to be a language shift so that drones have propellers while missiles do not, leaving jet engines in a sort of limbo which tend to lump the with drones if they have lifting body shape.

    1576:

    Sorry, I may have misremembered. shrug Not my religion. The punchline still works....

    1577:

    About the attack on the Saudi processing fields... I was just speaking to someone who has more, ahh, informed knowlege, and he suggested that, given the extreme sanctions on Iran (aka economic warfare), they're selling their tech to anyone with hard cash to buy it.

    Meaning, the rebels could well have just bought the drones.

    1578:

    Brian Williams' recent (9/18/19) interview with Edward Snowden: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9yK1QndJSM

    1579:

    I'm seeing the weapons used being referred to as 'Drones' rather than, say, 'Cruise Missiles' is there any substantive difference that justifies the distinction?

    If I was paranoid* I'd say it's setting the stage to clamp down on small quadcopter drones by linking them with military gear in people's minds. I've talked to people who seem to equate my small 750g quadcopter with a Reaper "because they're both drones".

    *OK, more paranoid :-)

    1580:

    David L @ 1548:

    "Trump just doesn't do systematic. Trump's animosity to Obama seems more visceral, based in Trump's deep seated racism,"

    It totally animates his base. If it didn't I'm convinced he could care less.

    Trump would still be a racist douchebag even if didn't excite his "base".

    1581:

    s/military/terrorist/ but apart from that, spot on. The short-term aim is to belittle the opposition (I won't call them the "enemy" because I don't think they are) by giving their munitions a less impressive name, but the long-term aim is as you suggest. Kind of surprised they haven't done that anyway a while ago but I suppose the things got too popular too quickly and caught them on the hop, so now they feel they have to go through the usual paranoia-generation preparative process so that people can't argue in favour of their pastime without being called a terrorist.

    1582:

    You're conflating why he does something with what he is. He WAS a liberal democrat when that advanced his cause.[1] He's now a right wing Republican because that advances his cause.

    [1] His cause is what ever gets me more power/money and has people adoring him. Doesn't have to be a majority, just enough to make him feel good.

    You say he's a racist. I more and more say he's just amoral. He just doesn't care about anyone AT ALL. A racist puts down a group of people for reasons of hate. He doesn't hate. He just doesn't care.

    1583:

    silburnl @ 1573: On the oil terminal attacks in the KSA, I'm seeing the weapons used being referred to as 'Drones' rather than, say, 'Cruise Missiles' is there any substantive difference that justifies the distinction? Or is this just that *I* have a Tomahawk GLCM, *you* have a drone...

    Regards
    Luke

    In general usage, "Cruise Missile" suggests a weapon that is pre-programed with a target before it's launched & once it IS launched, it has no further interaction with whoever launched it. "Drone" suggests there is a remote operator somewhere communicating with it to provide some kind of guidance.

    The U.S. uses satellite communications to control its long range drones, but I don't see any reason it couldn't be done using cell phone networks.

    Pre-program it to autonomously fly to the general target area and once it gets there, have it phone home using a prepaid burner phone so the operator can guide it to the final destination.

    1584:

    Robert Prior @ 1579:

    "I'm seeing the weapons used being referred to as 'Drones' rather than, say, 'Cruise Missiles' is there any substantive difference that justifies the distinction?"

    If I was paranoid* I'd say it's setting the stage to clamp down on small quadcopter drones by linking them with military gear in people's minds. I've talked to people who seem to equate my small 750g quadcopter with a Reaper "because they're both drones".

    *OK, more paranoid :-)

    An M18A1 Claymore mine weighs 1.6kg.

    Imagine what you could do with a small drone capable of lifting a couple of kilograms? Imagine what you could do with a swarm of 50 - 100 such drones?

    1585:

    My favorite hypothesis was published this summer, and I think it's right, especially since the author had replicated knobstones and actually uses them. Oh, and this explanation also works for Stonehenge and Quipus (ditto on the replication, although the author didn't make a scale model of Stonehenge to test it out).

    1586:

    David L @ 1582 more and more say he's just amoral. He just doesn't care about anyone AT ALL. A racist puts down a group of people for reasons of hate. He doesn't hate. He just doesn't care. Are we talking about Trupelstiltskin or BOZO here? And, does it actually matter if it's either/or/both, actually?

    and JBS @ 1584 And... soon, someone will do just that, I suspect. The trouble is that small drones are just so fricking USEFUL. Network Fail oops, Rail have several for remote surveying of their long linear estate ... Though I don't know what they do about their tracks close to airports ( /Grin )

    Heteromeles @ 1585 WELL THEN ... Can we have a synopisis or resume or actual EXPLANATION for knobstones (etc) please? Rather than descending into rambling fucking obscurantism as the Seagull does? ( Yes, I'm in a bad mood )

    1587:

    Microsecond accuracy isn't very good - it's about a thousand feet. (I spent a year building microwave delay lines. We measured accuracy in nanoseconds. The last time I saw a microsecond there, it was a job that was going to be 1 microsecond oscillators in goose-collar radio transmitters "because geese can't carry the big packages that alligators can". (They were going to track migrating Canada geese, starting in Canada.)

    1588:

    The trouble is that small drones are just so fricking USEFUL.

    Here in the US and I suspect other places you can pay under $1000 and have a specialized CAD company hire a drone to make a 3D image/map of an area the size of a small city block. Permits and such are all handled but the company for hire. They contract with a commercial drone operator in the area desired and in a few days you get an AutoCAD point file. Sure beast a site survey with tape measures, clipboards, ladders, and such.

    1589:

    What, you don't like me retrolling?

    https://www.bookdepository.com/Memory-Craft-Lynne-Kelly/9781760633059

    It's actually a fun book if you want a new hobby.

    1590:

    An M18A1 Claymore mine weighs 1.6kg.

    Imagine what you could do with a small drone capable of lifting a couple of kilograms? Imagine what you could do with a swarm of 50 - 100 such drones?

    A couple of kilograms is not, currently, a small consumer-level drone. The DJI Inspire 2 (which is quite expensive) can't manage even 1 kg of payload (and that's taking out the gimbal and camera). The Matrice 600 could manage that, but now you're talking an industrial drone. 13x the mass, 5x the cost…

    I'm not saying you couldn't weaponize a consumer drone. I'm saying that it's a lot more difficult than people seem to think. We didn't demonize rental vans after they were used to commit acts of terrorism — why are some media trying to demonize toys?

    To entertain a paranoid fantasy, what a cheap drone like mine does is let you take pictures from above. I'm constantly amazed by how much you can see from 100 m that isn't visible from the ground — even without flying over what you're looking at. You no longer need a telephoto lens and enough money to charter a plane to see what an ag-corp or mine is doing. Look at various ag-gag laws and how taking a picture of an agricultural facility without permission is in many places illegal (and some places a terrorist offence). So demonizing drones is one way of nobbling people trying to stop industrial abuses — just like treating environmental protestors* as "terrorists" by intelligence agencies (which happens in Canada and the US).

    *Fantasy because frankly I don't think it's conspiracy so much as hysteria and herd-effect.

    **Sign a petition — get on a CSIS watch list. Remember that in Canada supporting a boycott was considered a hate crime by the last Conservative government.

    1591:

    You could do great things to reduce car usage :-)

    1592:

    Regarding energy storage, I'd like to see this method tried: https://heindl-energy.com/

    Or maybe the mechanical engineers can explain why it doesn't work.

    Then there's the matter of home made missiles. Some of you might recall a magazine called "Survival weaponry and techniques", around in the 1980's. My dad bought a few copies, so naturally I read them. I was most intrigued by the article about how you could build your own guided missile out of available parts, and the author talked about people they knew who had sent one across the Bristol channel or such into an aimed for field. Strangely enough, part 2 where he was supposed to explain it all, never came out. Possibly the editor thought they were actually dealing with a fruitcake, or else realised that publishing instructions on such a device might bring some legal difficulties.

    1593:

    Any chance it also explains the Roman dodecadra cited above? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_dodecahedron

    1594:

    SSC has a very problematic Poster-Boy on twitter. $. As ever, you don't look deep enough.

    Orem Lipsum Fatsum to spiders:

    But the world seems positively full of libertarians nowadays. And I see very few attempts to provide a complete critique of libertarian philosophy. There are a bunch of ad hoc critiques of specific positions: people arguing for socialist health care, people in favor of gun control. But one of the things that draws people to libertarianism is that it is a unified, harmonious system. Unlike the mix-and-match philosophies of the Democratic and Republican parties, libertarianism is coherent and sometimes even derived from first principles. The only way to convincingly talk someone out of libertarianism is to launch a challenge on the entire system...

    Don’t immediately assume that just because we are not libertarians, we must worship Stalin, love communism, think government should be allowed to control every facet of people’s lives, or even support things like gun control or the War on Drugs. Non-libertarianism is a lot like non-Hinduism: it’s a pretty diverse collection of viewpoints with everything from full-on fascists to people who are totally libertarian except about one tiny thing.

    https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/02/22/repost-the-non-libertarian-faq/

    Hint: we know he's not a Libertarian of the Rand type, he's an asset. Like that weird "ex"-CIA Utah boy who ran for Senate and Mensch and co loved him.

    One thing he is certainly not: an anti-Capitalist.

    ~

    Greg still hasn't worked out why NOISE is needed. https://twitter.com/meowza/status/1171928573445206016

    The Troll stuff was ages ago.

    Anyhow, here's DARPA stuff in the wild, only we know you can do it without the Dental Contacts these days, eh?

    https://www.ted.com/talks/greg_gage_how_to_control_someone_else_s_arm_with_your_brain?language=en

    grep meme: ASSuming Direct Control.

    Anyhow, IL election is getting petty and FED gave $75 bil when $80 bil was requested. Hooot.

    ~

    Oh, and #hastag fact, men not knowing women get ultra-horny during their periods is peak 2019. "Redwings" meme was like.. 2014 or something.

    p.s.

    It's not a memory stone.

    1595:

    it’s a pretty diverse collection of viewpoints with everything from full-on fascists

    Oooh. Not a great look in 2019.

    QED.

    1596:

    Do a grep.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/BDSMcommunity/comments/3vuw7s/looking_for_bdsmhypnosismind_control_fetish/

    Shit will really get wild if Epstein and Media Lab and DARPA hijinks get pulled into that one.

    Teledonic Dildonics used as a state terror and control weapon.

    That'd be real unpopular if anyone found out about it. Seething. Public lynchings. Wild stories like your TV is being MIM'd to fry your frontal cortex.

    numberstations are for little boys.

    G'luck Robert, you're waaay outta line there.

    1597:

    Robert, one simple question:

    Harvard Law School (J.D., 1994, cum laude); Editor-in-Chief, Harvard Journal on Legislation (1993-94); Stanford University (B.A., Political Science, 1991, Departmental Honors).

    https://brownwhitelaw.com/kenneth-p-white/

    What did he do before 1991, since he's obviously, well. Putting it kindly, he's not under 40. Pushing 50+ easily by the looks and his birth certificate.

    X-reference found, Little Miss Trouble.

    ~

    Sure, 100% onboard with him being an "anti-Capitalist" given his... well. Pedigree. "Totes Convincing".

    Seriously: you're gonna get yourselves killed.

    1598:

    I'm not an expert, but yes, it certainly appears from the pictures that the Roman dodecahedra could be used the same way as the Scottish orbs.

    Since everybody wants to be boring, the key term is "mnemonic device," as in a miniature memory palace. (And note, the notion of a memory palace is Greek. The concept pops up in a multitude of cultures, and Kelly also works with the Australian versions, which are called songlines, with their aboriginal custodians). The Romans regarded trained memory (e.g. the use of memory palaces) as a divine gift and an essential part of the rhetorical art, and mnemonicists were highly regarded, both as orators and performers. Indeed, there's some decent evidence that Roman architecture was specifically designed to become very useful memory palaces, unlike today's buildings, which waste their designs on mere aesthetics and satisfying the edifice complexes of rich men.

    In the case of the Roman dodecahedra, each side appears slightly, but memorably, different, so you can use it as a memory cue for 12 separate things (anything from a shopping list to 12 stanzas of a poem to 12 arguments in a legal case to 12 generations of a genealogy), linking the rotation to each face to going to the next item.

    According to Kelly (who commissioned a set of Scottish orbs to experiment with), it's not necessary for each side to be unique, since the act of holding them and rotating them is a strong tactile memory. However, the utility of uniquely different facets would explain why some orbs have each knob decorated differently.

    Sadly, we can have no idea what these were used to memorize, assuming that's how they worked, any more than we can know what was on a hard drive before it was wiped. The key point was that cultures without writing still had to store a lot of information that was used infrequently (things like lists of famine foods, medical cures, who owned which parcel of land...). Memory palaces, both small and large, backed up by songs and other techniques, were how they remembered this information. Odd little "ritual devices" like the Scottish orbs were simply portable little songlines, popular where (unlike the Australian aborigines), there weren't hundreds of kilometers of trails to turn into properly scaled songlines.

    The Romans were literate, but without printing and mass quantities of paper, writing was limited and good memories were essential to keeping thngs running, as they were in every polity up until the printing press and papermaking became widespread. The notion that civilization requires writing actually rests on fairly shaky ground, especially when people assume that information was mostly stored on paper, as it has been since printing became ubiquitous.

    1599:

    This is 100% false.

    Pull up a map of their distribution. There you go: https://www.romandodecahedron.com/public/data/image/map-europe.jpg

    If they were physical appellations of such phenomena they'd well: let's just say you'd have found a few in Italy.

    Not only that, we HAVE the records of how Roman Minds did "Memory Palaces". It's called: LITERATURE AND RHETORIC. Memorizing 10,000 lines of Poetry shows you how they did it. Oh, and they also had dedicated slaves (usually Greek if you were rich, or Egyptian if you were kinky) to do it. And.... an entire industry devoted to supporting the logistics divisions of their armies and so on.

    They. Were. Not. Memory. Devices.

    1600:

    By the end of the third century B.C., the Roman state could move enormous amounts of supplies for long distances over land and sea. While some ancient historians, like modern ones,often ignore logistics, there is ample description in Livy and Polybiuson how the Roman Republic’s logistics operated. Even when this narrative history breaks off, there are often anecdotes preserved in Sallust, Suetonius, Plutarch and Appian to follow the development of Roman logistics into and through the Late Republic.

    http://www.legioxxirapax.com/zasoby/The_Logistics_of_the_Roman_Army_at_War_(264BC_-_235AD).pdf

    CTRL+F "record"

    Several passages suggest that the number of military servants inthe army was a matter of record, and that the military kept lists ofthem. Although as slaves they did not count, technically, on the army’srolls,262they appear to have been considered, in a very real sense,part of the army. The epitomator of Livy, citing Valerius Antias,says that at the Battle of Arausio, in 105 B.C. the Germans killed“80,000 soldiers and 40,000 servants and camp-followers (calonum etlixarum).”263I

    We have, literally, got a load of papyrus records of how the Romans used fucking paper and didn't need to memorize shit.

    1601:

    That's a 2:1 ratio (at the least, unlike the Cavaliers they didn't run off to ransack the baggage train) of soldiers to unarmed slave / technicals.

    They did not use that device for memory tricks.

    1602:

    Yup. A couple of things to remember:

    Writing developed from accounting, at least in the west (it's unclear in China, due to the probable loss of the oldest records on bamboo and silk)

    Roman legal cases, which today are done on paper, were done orally in Roman times. It's even part of the best surviving written description of how to memorize.

    Also, you've got the central problem that Romans mostly weren't literate, literature was all handwritten, and until they developed codices (e.g. books) they had to deal with scrolls, which are really bad devices for finding random access information on, since you've got to unspool them rather than paging through them and there's no index, table of contents, or markers. Notions like indices (earliest, 1595), book titles, verses of the Bible, or even putting spaces between the letters, all postdate the development of civilization. In other words, written documents were crap for information retrieval. For transmitting information in a mostly illiterate society written materials were good and relatively secure, but not for retrieving random access memory on the fly.

    1603:

    https://earlychurchhistory.org/military/julius-caesars-secret-code/

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigen%C3%A8re_cipher

    It was used to decipher coded .mil messages. The Wax found in them was to cast the shadow of the frame to cast upon the BOLLOCKS LONG TEXT MY HOLIDAY IN GERMANY IS GREAT to pinpoint the actual message.

    Look at the map and why we referenced that battle.

    They're found when a Roman army gets trounced / reduced.

    Or was it?

    Well, it's a better story than your memory palace nonsense.

    Oh, and it's actually true.

    1604:

    The unwritten part of my job description was being corporate memory from a couple of previous projects, 20 years earlier. (At that point, I was one of three people in the entire company who had been involved with them. And one of those retired before I did.) "Oh, yeah, that pipeline. We went looking for the paperwork for that one back in 1989, and couldn't find anything. I did find a drawing from 1948 that shows it, so it's at least that old." (If they'd asked for my expert opinion on its actual age, I'd have told them that I thought it was from before 1915, and why. This was in 2011.) I also read maps, aerial photos, ground-based photos, and the theoretically-ubiquitous work orders, as we were changing from CAD mapping to GIS and the requirements for some of the pipe got tightened (see 49 CFR 192 for the gory details).

    1605:

    Which, by the way, conceals the actual story - Roman Postal Services - hard-core.

    You wouldn't know this, but not a small amount of their GDP was spent on it. Not just the roads, like the Victorians later (4-5 postal services per day in London) they had a serious hard-on for quick information flow. That whole logistics of Horse Posts and so on. 100% a Roman thing.

    You should look it up before spouting bollocks about "memory palaces" when the entire fucking Roman army ran on a fucking highly educated slave strata whose only role was to FUCKING DOCUMENT EVERYTHING TO THE SESTERTII BECAUSE AFTER THE TRIUMPH YOU FCKING SHOVED THE RECEIPTS DOWN SO EVERYONE GOT PAID.

    OR was it?

    Those Scottish stones aren't what Wikipedia claims either.

    1606:

    Kind notice then.

    U+25B2 is gonna be planted all over the place soon.

    USA - UFOs - BLINK152 - .... He's a Mason.

    So, get in the pot.

    1607:

    Roman legal cases, which today are done on paper, were done orally in Roman times. It's even part of the best surviving written description of how to memorize.

    Give me the confidence of an Old White Male.

    Inhalt: Königlicher Erlaß der Kleopatra VII. Philopator, adressiert an Ptolemaios Caesar (Kaisarion), über die Erteilung von Privilegien an den römischen Geschäftsmann Q. Cascellius und seine Erben, bestehend in einer Lizenz zum Export von 10000 Artaben Weizen und Import von 5000 koischen Amphoren Wein pro Jahr, Zollfreiheit, unbefristeter und unbeschränkter Steuerfreiheit für seine ägyptischen Landgüter (auch für seine Pächter) und Arbeits- und Transporttiere und Befreiung seiner Schiffe von der Steuer und Beschlagnahmung für öffentliche Aufgaben; Eingangsvermerk in Z. 1: 23. Februar 33 v.Chr.

    http://berlpap.smb.museum/05150/

    1608:

    Hint:

    Like court recorders do to this day...

    They wrote it up in the records AFTER THE FUCKING CASE YOU GENIUS.

    Now explain why MENA law has none of these records.

    It's called: burning all the Libraries.

    QED

    1609:

    Oooh, nice move.

    Libraries, actual links and a refutation of the asinine "memory stone" reference, via Masons.

    Well, what if we then produced an actual Roman era 'memory device'?

    We can.

    And they're not precision produced bronze master-class works either.

    It's called a fucking Abacus.

    This is what it looks like: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_abacus

    1610:

    "Memory Stone"

    Here's the actual tools the fucking Roman army used, here's the links, here's the docs and fuck me why bother.

    Oh, and Herm - absolute 100% disrespect for enslaved Minds there boy, nice move.

    "The Roman Army totally didn't use slaves, science and paper, it had FUCKING MAGIC STONES".

    Welcome to the American Confederate Racist Army, nice moves.

    QED.

    And that's a Hexad. Racism runs deeeeep in your veins. So deep, you don't even spot it.

    1611:

    ...Anyhow.

    There's your proof that you will engage with a Roman Era Conspiracy theory before dealing with the fact that (some, not all) women bleed and they're usually horny during it.

    You can (LITERALLY) not find all the texts (THEY WERE BURNED) about the classical approach to this barring fragments of metaphor.

    OOOOH.

    But it's 2019, so here's AN ACTUAL "SERIOUS" RESEARCH PAPER:

    Is Vaginal Sexual Intercourse Permitted during Menstruation? A Biblical (Christian) and Medical Approach

    From a modern medical point of view, sexual intercourse during menstruation is normal and not perversion, but is associated, although remote, with undesirable pregnancy, the development of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and possible endometriosis, which affects, inter alia, the health of the reproductive tract. These Provisions were essentially hygiene rules imposed by the social and cultural circumstances of that time and were invested with religious authority. The main aims of the Lawmaker were to promote the Israelites’ health, prevent them from contracting STDs, and increase their fertility and birth of healthy offspring. The term “unclean” for each menstruating woman served this aim.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6290188/

    2018 Sep; 13(3): 183–188.

    OOoooh... it's Greek Orthodox weird.

    Why the link? Well, they just fucking purged all their anarchist communes and beat the shit out of them and none of your "WOKE" fucks noticed.

    2018 Sep; 13(3): 183–188.

    Seriously.

    2018 Sep; 13(3): 183–188.

    You do realize it's gonna take less than 10 mins to link that shitty journal to RU, The Pope, IL and America, right?

    Fuck me are you SHIT at this "Being Human" stuff.

    1612:

    Ioanel SINESCU (Romania) Alan G. FRASER (UK)

    W T F.

    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Alan_Fraser7

    REALLY?

    Cardiff Uni?!?!

    Holy fuck, it's real:

    http://www.bcs.com/programmesessions/biog.asp?bcsid=796 https://www.ft.com/content/0b905a36-60e4-11e7-91a7-502f7ee26895 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYl0McisKq4

    Wales... Blood.... Virgins....

    HOLY FUCK - YOU'RE ALL BATSHIT INSANE AND SOOOOOOOOOO FUCKED IN THE HEAD.

    1613:

    IT IS 2019.

    KILL ALL THE MEN OVER 50, SERIOUSLY, THEY'RE FUCKING DANGEROUS TO WOMEN.

    THAT IS BIBLICAL REDUCTIONIST THEORY IN A MAJOR UNIVERSITY.

    And yeah, no: not joking.

    That's what you get when $$$ beats reality.

    Everyone involved with that should a) be neutered / gelded and b) never be allowed to hold a position of "science" again.

    That's the 13th Contract Right there.

    ~

    How you doing peeps? Still confident? Not looking so good right now.

    1614:

    Oh, and for Greg and co claiming "Troll"

    That paper is 100% bullshit.

    It's being used for propaganda.

    It should not exist in a scientific record[1].

    And yet if you track the paper's authors, the $$$ behind it and the journal's providence, well.

    Turns out, basically, that: YOU ARE ALL BATSHIT DEATH CULTISTS!

    WEEEE!

    [1] For one thing, "unclean" menstruation stuff is not religion specific, it exists globally (go look up 'exile huts' in S.E. Asian religions if you want to get fucking depressed), nor does it have anything to do with retro-actively attempting to justify shitty religious coda with modern science.

    BURN ALL THEIR MINDS OUT.

    1615:

    https://heindl-energy.com/

    The big secret, buried 3 links deep, that that they have a big weight in a tube, with water under it. That pressurises the water and they then pump it in and out to store energy.

    The cool part is that the depth of the hole doesn't matter, it's only the diameter that affects the cost. Which means they are in the wrong game - they should be digging foundations for skyscrapers, making holes for mines and other such activities where every metre of depth costs a fortune.

    Sadly they don't explain their excavation technology.

    As previously discussed here there are also minor issues with seals (the circumference of the weight/tube interface needs to be bother watertight and very low friction) and geology (you somehow need to float a very large mass in whatever surface geology is present), plus all the usual NIMBY whining about safety (because they propose to store a great deal of readily available energy actually inside cities).

    1616:

    Anyhow.

    Smart commentary on IL: תודה רבה

    Serious money spent on Twitter to reinforce the Daddy Complex. 'Cause that's what it really is: psychotic disorder when the Big Daddy can't protect. Trash the place 'cause Daddy didn't love you.

    Upgraded RW meme post "WeWork" IPO disaster (which is basically slavery):

    We don't hate you.

    We pity you.

    We're really not them.

    But Now... comes the Dragon(s).

    ~

    Remember that weird moment in book 5 or 6 of the Dune Series when suddenly Jewish people got shoe-horned in and they hadn't changed and it was a barn but now suddenly they also had racial memory? Like... out of the blue, racial memory they had.

    While the protagonist by that point was a super-ghola-speed-freak-trained-by-the-Bene-Gesserit killing uber general perfect "human"?

    Not even: "These are the space-magic-uber-cat-ear-women new Jewish people, but... like ... here are the Amish Jewish people who have totally not changed in the last 50,000 years of Worm-God and live in a barn".

    And the next book did have uber-cat-reflex-killing-women-matriarchs-who-also-had-genetic-memory.

    Yeah, that was weird. Almost like: we'll kill your future just so we can't change vibe we're reading right now.

    1617:

    Heteromeles @ 1589 THANK YOU Though it might have been better if you'd done it straight. Interesting idea ... like the RC's "rosary" - yes?

    guthrie @ 1592 Oh FUCK ME UTTERLY BORED ... THAT is an Hydraulic Accumulator tower - used throughout the late C19th early C20th to store energy for hydraulic power systems. Start HERE OK? Then these pictures are of preserved ones .... Here is a small one in London docklands - the small tower in the middle or, for a spectacular example ... Grimsby Dock Tower modelled on the great tower of Venice's Piazza!

    A VERY OLD idea & perfectly feasible & un-patentable, actually. [ ... & Moz @ 1615 Oops - the VICTORIANS solved the problems, perfectly well. And the hydraulic Accumulators lasted & worked well for up to 100 years ....

    Boring Content GAP 1593 - 97 & also 1605-15

    1618:

    The big secret, buried 3 links deep, that that they have a big weight in a tube, with water under it. That pressurises the water and they then pump it in and out to store energy.

    I'm not sure I'm following the rest of your explanation right. They use it as a piston?

    You mention the nuisance of watertight seals, which would be unnecessary if the weight floated in place (and since things float through displacement, the weight itself should be superfluous to pressurize water). Hydraulic systems using small pistons to create water pressure are well understood - but they don't store energy very well. Pumped water storage does but this seems to be something else. What am I missing?

    1619:

    I read most of her PhD thesis, and found that it had the same basic flaw as Diamond's books - not surprisingly, because it's common in that area, as in many areas of science. Yes, I found it convincing, but not conclusive, and the extension to some examples rather contrived. In particular, it gave strong arguments for a hypothesis but completely ignored alternative possibilities and data that did not fit the hypothesis.

    On the other hand, if the multinominal one is so sure of another hypothesis, she should provide some evidence or reasoning. Regrettably, she often reminds me of Trump, Pompeo, Johnson, Gove et al.

    My immediate reaction is, yes, they were masterpieces of bronze casters, but that doesn't mean they weren't functional - if the ordinary devices were made of wood or leather, none might have survived in a recognisable form. I have devices rather like that in my workshop, which are gauges, and they could well be similar. What for? A good question.

    1620:

    Once of the reasons my employers sidelined me was that I remembered what had been done before, what worked and why, what didn't work and why, and said so.

    1621:

    There's a really similar discussion back here: http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2018/11/what-do-you-know-about-my-inne.html#comment-2056345

    Without the seals you just have an absolutely standard pumped hydro system, so all the gibberish on the website of pointless. If the weight floats then you can remove it from the system as the water that replaces it will be more dense (that's how floating works). If it's more dense in order to make the system more compact you need seals around the weight.

    Refer to the comment thread linked for the discussion on the weight/height required - if your hole is only 100m deep and the support structure is above ground so that the weight can move 100m vertically you need millions of tonnes of weight, so the hole also has to be hundreds of metres across. Which means pi-hundreds-of-metres in circumference worth of watertight seals.

    I'm not even slightly kidding when I say that if the people behind this idea can make holes hundreds of metres deep and hundreds of metres across cheaply then they should get into the business of supplying holes and forget about power generation.

    1622:

    I’m getting déjà vous, because I may have asked this question before and been misunderstood as expressing a view. I wonder about how hard these seals are. I suspect that what is really required is a degree of precision in making the weight and the tube that may not be physically possible. Say we have a tube of 10m internal diameter and a weight that fits into it with 3mm clearance, so the weight is a cylinder 9.97m in diameter, and perhaps 15m tall. My thought is that even with the leak around the edge, there is still a pressure differential. It’s like a ship with a leak. The rate of flow is bounded, even if the weight is technical sinking. And while that doesn’t make a long-term stable medium of energy storage on its own, it’s trivial to lock the weight at a position by means of removable bars or bolts.

    I still don’t think it makes an awful lot of sense versus pumped hydro, it’s conceptually pretty much the same thing as running a train up a hill. But I am not convinced the lack of a liquid-tight seal is the point that makes it impractical.

    1623:

    Dammit, déjà vu, and 9.94m.

    1624:

    Assume it's concrete with a specific gravity of about 3 (the steel or whatever you wrap it in is such a small part of the mass that it's pretty much irrelevant), then you have 50m^2 * pi * 100 = 785,398 cubic metres of concrete or 2.3 Mtonnes. Lifting that 100m stores 2.3GJ, and dropping it over an hour gives you 636kW of power output for that hour... 0.6GWh. If you assume similar efficiency as pumped hydro multiply by .75 and you get 0.477GWh. You're handling about 218 cubic metres of water per second to do that.

    Note that you need to store 785,000 cubic metres of water at ground level while the thing is "empty", and that gets pumped down under the weight to charge it up. So you also have a tank 100m tall and 100m across full of water. The extra density basically means you get 3x as much energy per vertical metre moved, so it's equivalent to a 300m high pumped hydro scheme with similar tanks (the cylinder the piston sits in is effectively a tank). You can bump the density by buying the world supply of tungsten to make your weight out of (I can't find where we discussed this, but it was another of the "lift London to store energy" threads)

    Obviously with the "big piston" approach if the seals act as brakes they negate the whole point of the system, but without them you need a very precisely round weight in a very precisely round shaft that's many, many metres deep and exactly the same shape all the way down. Then you have internal leakage around the edge, at a rate proportional to the size of the gap and the length of the weight. With a weight that's 100m high and 100m across even a 1m gap might not be too much of an issue - sure it's sinking, but slowly, and if you have to pump 100 cubic metres of water a second back down 100m that's about half your stored energy gone right there. With a perimeter of 314m, and a 1m wide gap 100m long there are are probably simple fluid dynamics equations to give you the actual flow but I can't be bothered, the idea is too stupid to proceed further with.

    There may also be problems with momentum. With pumped hydro the momentum is only in the pipes and turbines, but with the giant weight that is also moving - it's akin to having the lake at the top of the pumped hydro moving. Since power is proportional to mass and height change, and so is momentum, the more power the thing puts out the more momentum you have to dump when you shut it down. And the longer it takes to develop that momentum when you start it up. I don't know that that's a problem because I haven't run the numbers, but I do know that fast-acting hydro systems blow quite a lot of water out through vent pipes when they stop quickly. It's less "turn the tap off" and more "divert the flow" when you have hundreds of tonnes moving at lots of metres per second.

    1625:

    I’m getting déjà vous

    You and me have played this game before, a few times. At one stage we had the City of London floating on several million tonnes of mercury because that made the numbers work better, but I can't find the thread.

    10m internal diameter puts you in home gamer territory, 100m is municipal size and 1km (with a 1km deep hole) is more useful if you have a country-size grid. Each multiple of 10 gives to another metric prefix to play with... 1km across by 1km deep is 636GWh of stored energy, but of course you now have a "tank" holding that much water sitting ... somewhere? ... and a hole 1km deep and 1km across with a big weight floating in it. You also have an imperial fucton of concrete willing the hole, and as mentioned at the scale we're discussing putting Ben Nevis on the train and taking it to London to use as the weight becomes a pretty reasonable proposition. Or just jacking London up and hoping no-one steals the wheels...

    1626:

    I don’t think you have to pump the leakage back down 100m against the pressure, you just need to pump it out, preferably back up into the feeder reservoir. But I agree it’s a bit pointless. In this system the water is just a surrogate for the mechanics that would lift the weight. There’s no advantage versus just using a winch. If the hydraulics were perfect, it’s still limited by load, etc, in exactly the same way as lifting buildings or running trains up hills.

    Instead of lifting weights, how about winching buoyant objects to the bottom of the ocean? Suspect it is still silly versus pumped hydro, but let’s explore the solution space a bit more...

    1627:

    STORED Hydraulic power From wiki, referring to The London Hydraulic Power Company The pressure was maintained at a nominal 800 pounds per square inch (5.5 MPa) (55 BAR) by five hydraulic power stations, originally driven by coal-fired steam engines AND Short-term storage was provided by hydraulic accumulators, which were large vertical pistons loaded with heavy weights. --- which were sealed at the top, of course.

    Note that pressure - so ... this is AT LEAST an 140-year-old proven technology & the proposers are idiots

    1628:

    Guys, I once spent a summer working for the North of Scotland Hydro-Electric Board (usually shortened to just "the Hydro"). The problem, if you have one, is crash-stopping the turbines and dealing with the resultant water that's dropped 250 to 300m in free-fall and is charging down the tailrace at speed.

    I don't know the actual speed the water was doing, but before the tailrace was deepened, when the turbines were crash-stopped the resultant water went down the tailrace and OVER the A82 where it was bridged over the tailrace.

    It'll be a similar issue with your piston system, and the main problem will be how quickly you can stop the piston.

    1629:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deadline-irish-backstop-no-deal-stephen-barclay-october-a9111756.html

    The mind boggles. If someone were required to build a bridge to be operational on January 1st, it would not be acceptable for him to say that he has until December 31st to come up with a plan. Yet that IS what these villains are saying.

    1630:

    Instead of lifting weights, how about winching buoyant objects to the bottom of the ocean? Suspect it is still silly versus pumped hydro, but let’s explore the solution space a bit more...

    I suspect this is impractical [understatement] but I've never run the numbers. In the interest of following one silly idea with several more:

    While several obstacles present themselves, so do several advantages.

    Consider the convenience of doing all the work at sea level. We've got lots of experience mooring oil platforms and similar things, so building the generating station is straightforward. And humanity has thousands of years of messing around in boats; of course we can get crews and supplies out there.

    Site considerations become much easier. Rather than needing to find a high mountain with a valley which can be flooded, we need only locate a patch of deep water not currently being used for anything else. We've got millions of square kilometers of ocean.

    Anchoring the storage cables would be expensive but straightforward. We'd want some kind of large cheap mass, possibly of concrete, that we'd make in ordinary shipyards, float out to the site, and sink where we wanted them. (The British Royal Navy has centuries of experience sinking things that used to float, many of them belonging to other nations.) This is not grossly different from the use of submersible caissons in construction, just easier because we won't need to get into them. How heavy such things need to be depends on the total flotation of the anti-weights they must hold down.

    One obvious question remains unanswered: What's the best float for such a system? Concrete caissons that still have air inside? Surplus blimps? Nets full of millions of ping-pong balls? More study needs to be done...

    1631:

    can't help thinking the losses due to water resistance would be enormous going both ways, though i suppose u could streamline

    1632:

    But this is just more of the same from the Brexit crowd.

    It's all about throwing enough stuff into the air so that when things go badly wrong they have plenty of prepared villains to take the blame so they don't have to.

    Thus trying to apply logic to the situation won't work.

    1633:

    also about creating enough confusion that the Remain factions can't get their act together, and so that an Brexiters having second thoughts don't jump ship "because it's those evil EU people being mean to us"

    1634:

    Heteromeles @ 1589: What, you don't like me retrolling?

    https://www.bookdepository.com/Memory-Craft-Lynne-Kelly/9781760633059

    It's actually a fun book if you want a new hobby.

    IF you can remember where you left it.

    1635:

    Bu MOST people can spot a scam when they see it - why aren't they doing so here? From observation, it appears that they disengage their mind when their prejudices are involved - sommething that I simply can't understand, because I can't do it.

    1636:

    Scott Sanford @ 1618:

    "The big secret, buried 3 links deep, that that they have a big weight in a tube, with water under it. That pressurises the water and they then pump it in and out to store energy."

    I'm not sure I'm following the rest of your explanation right. They use it as a piston?

    You mention the nuisance of watertight seals, which would be unnecessary if the weight floated in place (and since things float through displacement, the weight itself should be superfluous to pressurize water). Hydraulic systems using small pistons to create water pressure are well understood - but they don't store energy very well. Pumped water storage does but this seems to be something else. What am I missing?

    The weight of the piston gives you higher water pressure, similar to pumping the water to a storage tank of much greater height. Also, where most pumped storage requires a fairly large footprint, this is apparently pitched as requiring very little ground space. It's basically a 100-250m diameter capped tube with a big rock sitting on top of the cap. Some of the "selling points":

    "Gravity Storage requires no elevation difference (suitable for flat terrains, unlike pumped hydro storage)"
    "Requires much less water than pumped hydro storage"
    "Small land footprint per kWh"

    Looks like it's "pumped storage" that doesn't require a lake up on top of a mountain & you could build it inside a city if you wanted to.

    1637:

    "What's the best float for such a system?"

    Plastic jerry cans full of petrol.

    I believe this is what bathyscaphes use, because it's less dense than water and capable of resisting pressure simply through its own bulk rather than having to be formed into an unsquashable hollow shape.

    The next obvious development then becomes to do away with the huge network of cables and winches, and simply have a big tank on the sea floor, open at the bottom, and pump the petrol down into it.

    And this in turn suggests that instead of building huge tanks, it would be simpler just to find natural geological formations where a stratum of impervious rock has been deformed into a dome. Then you can be sinking your floaty thing in rock (and it doesn't matter the rock being solid) instead of in water, which gives you the extra buoyancy boost from rock being denser than water.

    Or if you don't fancy the risk of causing earthquakes, you can let go of some of the storage density - after all, geological formations tend to be big things, so you probably don't need it - and shove a big bubble of gas down the hole first, to sit above the petrol, so you're storing energy by compressing the gas rather than by buoyancy. Same deal as gas-filled dampers in car suspensions. Of course, you can't use air, because of the oxidation problem, but on the other hand a gas that can dissolve in the petrol to some extent is an advantage, because it helps keep things at a more constant pressure. Methane might be a good candidate.

    1638:

    Damian @ 1622: I’m getting déjà vous, because I may have asked this question before and been misunderstood as expressing a view. I wonder about how hard these seals are. I suspect that what is really required is a degree of precision in making the weight and the tube that may not be physically possible. Say we have a tube of 10m internal diameter and a weight that fits into it with 3mm clearance, so the weight is a cylinder 9.97m in diameter, and perhaps 15m tall. My thought is that even with the leak around the edge, there is still a pressure differential. It’s like a ship with a leak. The rate of flow is bounded, even if the weight is technical sinking. And while that doesn’t make a long-term stable medium of energy storage on its own, it’s trivial to lock the weight at a position by means of removable bars or bolts.

    I still don’t think it makes an awful lot of sense versus pumped hydro, it’s conceptually pretty much the same thing as running a train up a hill. But I am not convinced the lack of a liquid-tight seal is the point that makes it impractical.

    It wouldn't be that hard to seal the piston. They used to do it all the time with those old gas holders. I expect they'd have something like a giant cake pan to cap the cylinder. Then you could just pile chunks of rock in the pan to provide the "gravity".

    They're touting its "small" footprint as an advantage. You could build this in a place where pumped storage wouldn't work because there's no place to put an elevated hydro reservoir.

    1639:

    OK, I'm not sure who's trolling whom here (but am bored enough to type this twice). The energy stored in the water in a hydro-electric upper reservoir (conventional as Loch Sloy, mentioned but not actually named up thread, or Cruachan (pump storage)) is stored as gravitational potential energy. So, to store more energy in a "big piston" system you either need more volume, more head, or a really good explanation as to how you're breaking the laws of thermodynamics.

    1640:

    Or more density. And some magic geology to put it on.

    1641:

    The obvious scifi end point of this is to use a hollow space elevator as your pumped storage reservoir and ride a hydraulic funicular to orbit.

    1642:

    EC @ 1629 Villains? Possibly. Moronic Idiots? Certainly. The tossers have had, what - THREE YEARS to come up with something that works ... & don't appear to have even bothered, never mind actually tried anything. I take your point about throwing out 300 distracting/bullshit/lies though ... even more depressing.

    JBS @ 1636 / Pigeon @ 1637 JBS AGAIN @ 1638 Paws @ 1639....

    AND EVERYBODY ELSE discussing the "Pumped Liquid / Pressure Storage "... PLEASE read my posts @ 1617 & 1627 - - - Pretty Please? There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING NEW ABOUT THIS & it's a set of SOLVED PROBLEMS - for over 140 + years - OK?

    1643:

    OK, I've read #1617 and #1627 again, and still can't find any mention of electricity. What now? An actual application perhaps, such as the Scarborough cliff lift funiculars?

    1644:

    In your ipsum, I read "libertarianism is that it is a unified, harmonious system."

    Please, could you possibly put a "do not have anything in your mouth before reading" warning?

    That's the silliest thing I've read in a couple of days, and that includes news about the Orange One and BoJo.

    For example, show me libertarians arguing, in public, and voting against anti-abortion laws.

    1645:

    Sorry, I haven't followed. I just looked, and year, he's late 40's/early 50s, and 1991 was 28 years ago, which would put him at about 22 then - in the US, a lot of folks go to college right out of high school, and most graduate hs at 18.

    1646:

    I never got past the first or second Dune book. Jews in space, with Bene Gesseret goodness? In 50k years?

    rolls eyes

    Did the last Dune book ever come out? The one suggested in a mid-seventies book review in Playboy, "When Mr. Herbert finishes the series, probably around 1996, with Imperial Morticians of Dune...."

    1647:

    "Many holes". Sorry, I seem to be in a silly mood, but is that why they dug 4000 holes in Blackburn, Lancashire And though the holes were rather small They had to count them all Now they know how many holes it takes to fill the Albert Hall

    1648:

    On the piston energy storage, I did envision a failure mode involving a big fountain, or else a water knife. But aside from that, I'm just surprised nobody has thrown money at it, given how much Uber has raked in, or the various recent investment failures which were entirely predictable.
    The other point though is that there is a perfectly good use case for it, if it works/ worked, because sites which are good for pumped storage are pretty rare. And the UK alone needs to be able to store many GWh of energy to cover the various slack times. One idea is DC cables to Norway and their hydro systems. I've not heard of molten salt being discussed in the UK, but I'm not involved in cutting edge discussions; we're barely at the small lithium battery in the home to offset daytime solar for evening use stage here.

    As for flow batteries, I've been following them for a couple of years, and no reason they can't make some market penetration, but if you do currently have a reliable grid there seems no need for householders to buy them and as said lithium batteries are ahead technologically.

    The many named one seems to be trolling for Frank Herbert fans, with a litany of mistakes.

    1649:

    Lessee, John Brunner wrote about that, I think, in The Stone That Never Came Down, and that's more-or-less in a short that I'm writing right now.... It's the old line, I think from Groucho, "who are you going to believe, me, or your own lying eyes?"

    1650:

    I know about the Victorians' use of hydraulic accumulators, but they're not really comparable, because the scale is so different. Certainly they worked, but you can't just make a bigger one to store multiple GWh in. Apart from anything else, you're getting into the region where "solid rock" is no longer a distinctly different category from "mud". This is something that needs to be considered even for ordinary hydroelectric schemes, let alone these high-density piston doobries.

    1651:

    Please do not feed the troll.

    1652:

    It's about 15.2k years, not 50k, since the imperium was founded, which was a while after humans took to space. Not 50k like they said. Herbert had a thing about humans repeating the same mistakes, not learning, using the same old social structures and wondering why they ended up being whipped by a slavemaster. Hmmmmm.

    1653:

    Thought by now you'd realise, there ain't no way to hide those lying eyes...

    1654:

    Almost forgot- if you want a laugh try this guy:

    https://scottishscientist.wordpress.com/2015/04/15/worlds-biggest-ever-pumped-storage-hydro-scheme-for-scotland/

    Started off with this unfeasibly large scheme, seems to have moderated his ideas recently.

    1655:

    paws4thot @ 1643: OK, I've read #1617 and #1627 again, and still can't find any mention of electricity. What now? An actual application perhaps, such as the Scarborough cliff lift funiculars?

    The actual electrical generation is the same as any hydroelectric system. You get the electricity by letting the water run out of the storage facility through a turbine that turns a generator.

    In a conventional pumped-storage system you get the pressure necessary for the turbine to work by having the water storage in a reservoir at a higher elevation. The system proposed here gets that pressure from having a big rock capping the storage cylinder and the weight of the rock produces the necessary pressure.

    Greg Tingey @ 1642:

    OLD idea, NEW variation. The London Hydraulic Power Company provided high pressure WATER (800psi) to run machinery. They stored the water in hydraulic accumulators. They had a network of high-pressure cast iron piping running all under the City of London.

    But they did NOT use the high pressure water to generate electricity. That's the new variation, how the stored "energy" will be distributed.

    This is otherwise like any other pumped storage hydro system, except for substituting a hydraulic accumulator (which will fit inside a city) for the higher elevation reservoir, which might not be an option somewhere like The Netherlands, the Mississippi River Delta, the Salton Sea or the Nile Delta. I'd bet this could even work somewhere like the Dead Sea or the Sea of Galilee or The Great Salt Lake.

    It's just a different way to get high pressure water suitable for driving a turbine in locations where conventional pumped storage isn't feasible.

    1656:

    I'm just surprised nobody has thrown money at it, given how much Uber has raked in,

    Not enough computer technology, maybe? Or gig-economy workers to exploit while the backers get rich?

    You need a startup where 'independent contractors' build their own pistons (possibly from approved suppliers you have an 'arms-length' relationship with), and your company merely mediates between them and the energy companies taking a commission on the transactions.

    You will, of course, refuse to disclose names/locations to authorities concerned about things like zoning, liability, insurance, taxes, etc…

    Not certain how to manage this concealing while connecting to the grid, but maybe enough cut-out corporations would make it feasible.

    1657:

    HR Pufnstuf time?

    I mean he's calmly suggested creating a large land-locked salt lake.

    1658:

    You did notice up thread that I used to work for the Hydro? That made it easy to establish that the Ben Cruachan upper reservoir contains ten million m^3 of water in a lake 3.9km in radius and with a 450m head relative to the turbine hall.

    Unless you're planning to make your piston from neutronium I think you'll need a similar size (maybe deeper because Cruachan has a more or less constant at 1 part in 15 variance of nominal head) installation.

    OK, that's probably easier than moving 5 Munroes to a convenient to you location, but not much if you're digging in, say London clay and chalk. The idea looks good until you realise how much water is involved in even a small hydro scheme like Cruachan at 7GWh.

    1660:

    JBS @ 1655 Actually a minor detail The LHC used high-pressure water DIRECTLY driving rotating machinery, the "new" scheme also uses the water-pressure to drive rotating machinery - turbines driving generators, producing power INDIRECTLY. BIG HAIRY DEAL!

    1661:

    You mentioned earthquakes and magic geology. I am wondering whether every other household possesses a 10t cylinder spinning at 9000rpm in its basement will be a problem, not just with the city floating on a lake of mercury, given a bunch of gyros applying torque in random dimensions, including some that don’t exist.

    And the SF angles just keep popping out (SWIDT).

    1662:

    YES!! One end is the upper reservoir and the other end is the Moray Firth.

    1663:

    Greg, as has been said it's only a solved problem for trivial amounts of energy. JBS and EC are talking about using 10 cubic metres of something that weighs on the order of 100 million tonnes... that's why geology suddenly becomes extremely important. As a minor aside, we still don't know exactly how to make neutronium or how to mine it if we find an accessible source. But a lump of that encased in a suitable material* would have the right density.

    The reason Damian, paws, me and other numerate people keep treating it as a joke is that for GWh scale storage it is a joke. We know how to store GWh using water pressure and there are examples of it in the UK as well as other places. But using fluids of manageable density you need lots of volume, so people traditionally use lakes. But yes, you could use artificial structures. You just have to lift millions of (tonne x metre) and drop them again. Each million tonne metres gives you one gigawatt-second of stored energy. You need 3600 of those to get a gigawatt hour. So if you can lift your mass up 360m you only need 10 million tonnes to store one gigawatt-hour. Ten million tonnes is a lot. Saying "oh but we use weights, springs, levers... whatever... to get 10x the pressure from the same weight only drops the requirement to one millions tonnes. Even a million tonnes is a lot (it's nearly a million Morris Minors!)

    • we also don't know what a suitable material would look like.
    1664:

    Not me, in this case, but I agree with your point.

    1665:

    In particular, it gave strong arguments for a hypothesis but completely ignored alternative possibilities and data that did not fit the hypothesis. Re the Roman dodecahedrons (haven't read Lynne Kelly), there are quite a few theories, not fully enumerated in the wikipedia article. In the textual context of Loki[0], my immediate reaction was that I'd like to make an accurate 3D replica of a few different examples (the ones with the large holes of varying diameters) and test them as dice on a surface that wouldn't damage them (sand, soft wood, whatever), sampling the distribution, which might be interesting, e.g. an approximation of a power law distribution. But this being an era with different tech, I'm somewhat more interested in /dev/randoms (and what feeds them entropy) on service machines. :-)

    [0] Who I note the one(s) with the names said previously had been severely punished, perhaps memory wiped or similar, and so might not recall the details or the cultural context.

    1666:

    creating a large land-locked salt lake

    Think of the fishing!

    1667:

    Maybe it's related to your joke; Salton Sea Photos I visited in the mid 1990s (west side and south). It was an very weird place. (Saw burrowing owls there, which was nice.)

    1668:

    While the protagonist by that point was a super-ghola-speed-freak-trained-by-the-Bene-Gesserit killing uber general perfect "human"? Always liked the Miles Teg character, perhaps because he was male, worthy of BG respect and not a tyrant. Herbert didn't fully think through the speed + possibilities precog combo, but it wasn't badly done.

    Jewish people got shoe-horned in and they hadn't changed and it was a barn but now suddenly they also had racial memory? That was weird enough I reread the passage(s) a few times when first reading that book.

    1669:

    Because they don't need to scam most people.

    The electoral system is such that they only need to fool around 40% of the vote, and that 40% can then be chopped into further sub-categories depending on what each sub-category views as important.

    Then add in the "confusion" part - where there isn't a single recognized authoritative version of the story - and that further confuses people (see tobacco, global warming, etc.)

    Then add in politics, and the seemingly current things driving much of politics like racism, and you get the current situation where lying becomes a virtue and gets rewarded.

    1670:

    Please tell guthrie he is incorrect. (we were too, but we knew it, it's called hyperbole)

    Dune begins in 10,191 AG, so we simply add 10,191 to 11,000+201 together:

    10,191 + 11,000 + 201 = 21,392

    This gives us the number of years that have passed in-between 10,191 AG and the beginning of deep space exploration. The first interplanetary space probe was Pioneer 5 which was launched in 1960. If start at 1960 A.D. and add 21,392 more years, we have 23,352 A.D.

    https://dune.fandom.com/wiki/Universal_Standard_Calendar

    If you wish to examine claims of trolling, this twitter thread is perhaps instructive regarding BJ, NHS, LAB ACTIVISTS, BBC Journalists and a load of celebrities in the UK:

    https://twitter.com/nailheadparty/status/1174692356366458880

    Which, rather later than our 10 mins analysis rather confirms that there's a LAB Dark OP / Marketing splurge behind it rather than any Light.

    And yeah, a lot of noise for that one, not sure the Liches want that info available to the general population. Imagine the scandal, Lab and Tory parties working the show together... shocking.

    ~

    Here till the end of the week. Pissed off a load of peeps by front-running the FED.

    The repo markets mystery reminds us that we are flying blind

    https://www.ft.com/content/35d66294-dadc-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17

    We just wanted a bit of love.

    p.s.

    General UK cheer up bit - Cat Lady got an upgrade: https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1174725016476364800

    Oh, and the note of sorrow to Robert was genuine. CAN is getting the absolute shit kicked out of it, serious $ spend to destroy the Liberals (much like Dem / USA, Lab / UK) and it might just work.

    1671:

    Best model I have is politicians as balancing spiders driven by political survival - as measured by opinion polling. After a certain amount of evolution/training - that is most of what democracies produce. Trying to predict political behavior in terms of morality is not too useful - even for pretty decent people. (Viz Obama and gay marriage)

    Now, with well-informed, conscientious voters - you'd get excellent outcomes.

    ...here in reality...most people don't put in the legwork to really understand the major issues. Those people are probably pretty smart within their local expertise region - but - when the system works okay - they tend to not bother with much else. So, then, you get people following soundbites and pleasant lies. Oh well.

    To some extent, politicians in the US at least are known to comment off the record that they would prefer better policy - if only they had better voters.

    1672:

    This brings us to Brexit - wherein every credible proposal is bad for the UK and also bad for the politicians involved.

    So, eh, when your boss will fire you for every project outcome...it doesn't make sense to finish.

    Best case outcome for Boris is probably winning a general election while being thrown out of the UK. After 5 years, maybe stuff quiets down enough to not get wiped out while spinning a tale of sabotage.

    1673:

    If each one was just a little bit out of balance, then by nicely-calculated variations in rotation rate and phase you could heterodyne and focus the vibrations so as to liquefy the foundations of any other capital city you chose. Or several lower-case ones. Then with a suitable shift in the rotation axis you can use the well-known gyroscopic antigravity effect to levitate the entire city and transfer it as a unit to the newly cleared site. This makes it possible to elude the effects of sea level rise. The proof it will work is that Jack the Ripper was actually a velociraptor which will have been brought forward from prehistoric times by the parasitic distortions induced by the procedure in the time component of the space-time vortex (it eventually died of bird flu and some chap called Cratchit ate it for his Christmas dinner).

    1674:

    "Even a million tonnes is a lot (it's nearly a million Morris Minors!)"

    Painted purple, of course...

    But now, in association with wobbleyou dot tingeyenergy dot com, we are proud to present...

    Land Rover Energy Storage!

    Using the electric winch mounted on the front bumper, a phalanx of Land Rovers winch themselves up Ben Nevis using energy generated by tidal flow machines in the Sound of Sleat when peak flow is in the middle of the night, then roll down against the winch as required to regenerate electricity when someone wants a cup of tea at slack tide. The use of individual Land Rovers allows the system's output to be precisely matched down to the level of individual kettles. Fitting them with railway wheels, installing a track up the mountain, and using the track as one conductor and the winch cable as the other avoids all the hassle with trailing extension leads, as well as increasing efficiency. Output can be further improved by fitting them with a big tank on the roof and putting the plug in when they get to the top to let it fill with rain, also by orienting the track transversely to the prevailing wind and fitting them with a mast and sail for extra thrust both going up and going down (on a reach both ways, port tack one way and starboard the other).

    1675:

    Re: ' ... trolling for Frank Herbert fans,'

    Often wondered whether Herbert used a worm because planaria memory transfer was a hot topic back then.

    1676:

    Continues unseen commentary

    Cute, but no.

    https://www.apa.org/monitor/2010/06/memory-transfer

    Spice doesn't confer access to genetic memory, it enables foresight. The two are different concepts in the mythos - the Bene Gesserit can access genetic memory in other ways, it's just a load easier using spice. And spice gives extended life-span, which is the actual reason everyone else takes it.

    If you dig into it, it's a joke. What is the basis of good soil? The Earth-Worm.

    What is the basis of Arrakis? A giant Sand-Worm.

    That's it. It's an ecology joke.

    Oh, and a MASSIVE PENIS JOKE HELLO BOYS, BUT APPARENTLY YOUR WILLIES ARE A TOUCHY SUBJECT.

    1677:

    ...Oh, and lest I forget, another novel unexploited energy source is the Kershaw Generator. This is constructed along the course of a river; trees are planted along the banks and a series of holes dug in the ground nearby. An old people's home is established on the Aran Isles; male inmates are given time to accustom themselves to living there and considering it home, then they are removed and placed in the holes, and the resulting rotation harnessed to generate electricity. To make sure they stay there, their brains are excised, affording the further advantage of using them to warn ships off the rocks at night. It has to be said that there is debate over whether this idea is morally acceptable or not, but it's not going to escalate to the point of actually fighting about it.

    1678:

    In Jason Brennan's book Against Democracy, the author claims that there are three broad categories of voters, who can be divided into the categories Hobbits, Hooligans and Vulcans.

    To quote:

    Hobbits * Mostly ignorant and apathetic about politics * Lack strong, fixed political opinions * Ignorant of current events and the social science used to evaluate those events * Possess a passing knowledge of relevant world or national history * In the U.S., this is the typical nonvoter Hooligans * Possess strong and fixed opinions * Able to present arguments for their beliefs, but unable to articulate arguments for opposing beliefs * Consume political information in a biased manner * Ignore evidence and research that does not confirm their preexisting opinions * Political opinions form part of their identity * Contempt for those that disagree * In the U.S., this describes many typical voters, active political participants, registered party members, and politicians Vulcans * Think scientifically and rationally about politics * Opinions are grounded in social science and philosophy * Confidence is only as strong as the evidence allows * Able to defend opposing points of view * Interested in politics but dispassionate to avoid being biased and irrational * Lack of contempt for those who disagree with them

    The author then goes down the rabbit hole of limiting voting rights as far as possible to Vulcans. I'm sure that there's nothing that could possibly go wrong with that.

    (Thinks of many things that would definitely go wrong with that).

    1679:

    HOLY FUCK.

    Now we're entering A+++ MOODY LEVELS OF TROLLING.

    The old boys are cracking out the Whiskey as the ship goes down:

    UMmmmmm.

    Ethical liberals celebrate the free choice of a conception of the good life, but communitarians respond by posing a dilemma. Either the choice is made in reference to some given standard (a social or natural telos), in which case it is not free, or it is made without reference to a standard, in which case it is arbitrary. This entails either ethical liberalism is false or it reduces to existentialism. I tackle each of these arguments in turn, showing that alienation is not any more of problem in liberal than in communitarian societies, and explain how virtues can fit between compartments in our lives. Regarding the problem of choice, I show that communitarians have assumed that justification must have a foundationalist structure. I show instead how a coherentist structure can allow for a person to begin with unchosen ends or with unchosen standards, but eventually arrive at a structure of ends (which constitute a vision of the good life) that is both freely chosen and rationally justified. This vindicates Millian individualism.

    https://philpapers.org/rec/BRECAE

    Any and all UK / EU philosophers will immediately tell yo: that boy is full of shit.

    1680:

    I show instead how a coherentist structure can allow for a person to begin with unchosen ends or with unchosen standards, but eventually arrive at a structure of ends (which constitute a vision of the good life) that is both freely chosen and rationally justified.

    Ooooh, soooo gooood.

    仕方がない

    Oh, btw.

    grep softbank

    Boom.

    We're not antisemitic, we're also going to take out that other fucking 731 fash who celebrated the destruction of [redacted] female avatars.

    Not even fucking around. Enjoy putting the radioactive water in the sea when your economy and age-differential social structure explodes.

    ~

    Trolling?

    "Ok Dad"

    1681:

    No, really do the grep.

    It's the picture of them eating off dead-women plates.

    ~

    Absolutely nothing to do with antisemitism, H.O.P decided that their cultures were dead-ends.

    Patriarchal shit that could not be saved.

    That deal was done waaaay back when we told you it had been made.

    Which is why all the drone stuff: their nukes and subs no longer work.

    Absolute cunts.

    1682:

    Here you go:

    SoftBank Founder’s Empire Is Vulnerable to WeWork Woes

    The SoftBank Group Corp. founder has pledged 38% of his stake in the Japanese firm as collateral for personal loans from 19 banks, including Credit Suisse Group AG and Julius Baer Group Ltd., according to a June regulatory filing. That's up from 36% at the start of the year and triple the level in June 2013.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-19/softbank-founder-s-leveraged-fortune-vulnerable-to-wework-woes

    WeWork is a scam.

    Run by a sociopath.

    Margin Callllll.

    ~

    We did tell you this was going to happen, why are you so surprised?

    1683:

    Now, why would:

    It's called a fucking Abacus.

    Be relevant here?

    Because the entire monetary system (Western) was designed around paying soldiers. And for that... you need accountants, ledgers, slaves with memory who know math and so on.

    QED.

    grep the post of Bibi + Flyboy taking the utter piss eating off those plates.

    And the English Leather Shoe.

    Problem is: there are crimes you cannot atone for, nor mitigate.

    Which are waaaay older than your shitty civilizations.

    ~

    Enjoy the show. Your Minds do not survive it. Fucking psychopaths anyhow.

    1684:

    Oh, and Mr Reynolds.

    We are aware of what publicly stating that all the electronics on the IL nuke stuff (even in bunker 911, SO FUCKING CLEVER) have been compromised means.

    It means no more black mail.

    ~

    Consequences.

    And if you want proof, "HEADGEAR".

    1685:

    Oh, and in case any of you are not getting the hints:

    https://www.npr.org/2019/09/19/760317486/the-mysterious-death-of-the-hacker-who-turned-in-chelsea-manning?t=1568948053892

    https://twitter.com/leftistthot420/status/1174351428191580161

    https://twitter.com/nicebigfootnice/status/1160186134254821379

    Not only the RU peeps doing obvious clean-ups Meow. Open season. UK favors forests and madness; USA is splatter-fest stuff, RU is windows, CN is doing a massive defenestration for targeted individuals and so on.

    Luckily, if you fuck with us, we fuck your entire economy. And Frontal Cortex.

    And we're dead by the End of the Week, no body will hold us now. Full FALLEN ANGEL stuff

    1687:

    I think the original 731 picture was in 2016 or something?

    Anyhow. You're all grown up adults and Gozer the Gozerian is arriving.

    She's a Furry. Pansexual. Rabidly Communist. Trans Poly Enby. Lover of All.

    Narrator: She should have been. Sadly Men fucked it all up.

    She's actually Νέμεσις.

    It's like: 80% of all insects have died, 30% of all bird life in the USA has died, you're run by sociopaths.

    And...

    You tortured the fuck out of one of the [redacted] who came to help?

    That's. Special. We. Guess.

    p.s.

    Third Temple : DENIED.

    We'd insert some real fucking raw Aramaic here, but the cunts in IL wouldn't see it.

    Abomination

    Do the grep...

    1688:

    If anyone is looking for the ref by SMM

    I don't think anyone is. Hope this helps.

    1689:

    i'm vaguely curious but having to work out a heap of allusions/puzzles to figure out what's being talked about tends to fail the cost-benefit analysis a lot of the time

    1690:

    My understanding was that Frank Herbert wrote Dune after his experiences in the coastal dunes of Oregon.

    One of the things that grows in the coastal dunes of Oregon are Psilocybe mushrooms. It is said by the Prophet Stamets that the blue-eyed desert women are the result of partaking of the sacrament and experiencing the truth.

    It's also said by the Prophet Stamets that seeing maggots eating a mushroom is where Herbert got the sandworms from.

    Thus endeth the lesson (and the bible is Mycelium Running, for those looking for enlightenment or something).

    1691:

    Fill them with mercury instead of wate?

    1692:

    Using the electric winch mounted on the front bumper, a phalanx of Land Rovers winch themselves up Ben Nevis using energy generated by tidal flow machines in the Sound of Sleat...

    How does the efficiency of this compare to putting the Land Rovers in 'Park' and using the winches to move Ben Nevis up and down? I assume that the Ordnance Survey folks have long since identified the optimal jack points for every British land formation worth mentioning.

    (This should be a sillier idea than the water hole idea, yet there it is.)

    1693:

    Moz @ 1663 Agree ... It's an entirely solved problem, but this particular iteration of it is wall-to-wall bullshit. Which is about as concise as I can get under the circs ...

    Pigeon @ 1674 😂

    [ Oh yes ... @ 1686 & 1688 PLEASE do not feed the troll?

    1694:

    using the winches to move Ben Nevis up and down?

    Winches? I thought we were talking about wenches in Landrovers now? As a source of power they're apparently very good, just ask the owner of The Sun... it's a whole different sort of solar power!

    1695:

    So the Land Rover motor show wenches jack up Ben’s Levis or something?

    1696:

    The bit that makes it funny is the idea that because there’s water involved it’s like hydro. Whereas the difference between using water and a mechanical linkage for this purpose (a difference pretty much defined by the compressibility of water) is going to be hidden in the rounding error, at any manageable scale and beyond that it’s the least interesting part of the problem.

    I’m still thinking about pumping the leakage around the rim, seeing a cyclonic water jet as the most fun and thinking of applications.

    1697:

    The most lunatic method I heard of was using the attraction between very close large, planar plates to store energy, which (in theory) has incredible energy densities. Not merely does it require polishing large plates and adjusting distances to below the nanometre scale (with huges forces involved, too), it is an unstable system and so any loss of control leads to the plates bonding together immovably with a huge release of energy. It was quite trendy at one time, among people who should have known better.

    1698: 1666 - I live in Scotland. We already have lake and river fishing, oh and sea fishing within 40 to 50 road miles of pretty much any randomly chosen location. 1673 - This doesn't seem that far removed (right now but give it time) from James Blish's "Cities in Flight". 1674 - Isn't that a million Morris Minors painted lilac? :-)

    And a re-invention of third rail electric?

    General - My last post from yesterday was 1663. The current post is 1697. That means there were 34 new posts since I logged off yesterday. Of those, 12 were by the Seagull.

    1699:

    Somewhere in my (albeit) quite disordered library I have a whole (admittedly slim) book on electrostatic loudspeaker design (if you’re interested in audio you very possibly have the same book). Which is one way of saying - that sounds demented. Much balance, so danger, wow.

    1700:

    I live in Scotland

    Yes, but this fishing will be in an elevated salt water lake with large tidal movements! Think of the tourism potential!

    1701:

    Oh those waters of novel algae, oh those mildly hallucinogenic fish.

    1702:

    I'm thinking more of the certain pollution of the environment caused by turning a fresh water loch and water course salt.

    1703:

    Damian & others Actually it's the ... Giant Hallucinogenigc EELS living in Loch Ness That or someone has been eating Haggis caught or shot during their breeding season!

    1704:

    That's just silly; as every fule knoe Haggis live on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schiehallion . Other uses for Schiehallion include "being the centrum of Scotland", weighing the Earth, and housing the little people (The name translates from the original Gaelic as "fairy hill of the Caledonians").

    1705:

    ...Boston drivers...

    Our family holiday this year was to Naples - how bad can it be compared to the Neapolitans? Their driving is so... spectacular... that the rest of Italy regards them as a bit much.

    Example: a common concept in Naples is the "third lane" in a two lane road. If the person in front is, well, in front of you? No problem, just drive down the dotted line, everyone else will just push outwards and put their wheels into the gutter. "Right of way" in the third lane is left as an exercise in Chicken...

    1706:

    The most lunatic method I heard of was using the attraction between very close large, planar plates to store energy...

    If memory serves, Robert Forward actually got a patent for a battery that would do that. I remember him describing it as wonderfully clever and completely pointless. Even if the thing could be manufactured at all (he might have had a plan for that; it's been a long time) it would have about the same energy density as a normal alkaline batter and could not be recharged. Since we can already batteries like that cheaply at the corner store, there was no hope of finding a market.

    1707:

    Interesting. That figures - he was a bit of a physical satirist, though few people seemed to notice.

    The blithering I saw indicated that the theory stated it could have a MUCH larger capacity if the plates could have been got close enough. But the engineering problems of making plates planar and controlling their spacing, in both cases down to the atomic level, were rather glossed over. It really WAS taken fairly seriously at some point, including by physycists who didn't understand engineering.

    1708:

    Yes indeed. That might have been the same year he was on about some really cool things that you could do with close-set wave guides. Or at least you could do them if you could get two arbitrarily smooth plates and keep them in place relative to each other at a distance measured in femtometers.

    Alas, the local machine shops insist on working with stuff made of big lumpy atoms...

    1709:

    That's silly. Why, the US could cut its carbon footprint by at least 25% by hooking up 50% of us the a generator, and showing us the Orange Thing's latest press conference, and it would leave our brains spinning so much that we'd get at least a few tens of gigawatts....

    Lest you think I'm joking....

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/20/as-a-foreign-reporter-visiting-the-us-i-was-stunned-by-trumps-press-conference

    1710:

    Ah, yes, the days of the "Journal of Planaria Research/(flip over like an Ace double)/The Wormrunner's Digest.

    Still remember a couple articles in the latter, concerning the use of blueberry pancakes as laboratory animals, they demonstrating gravitophilia so strongly. Still wonder how they got the elevator doors open, with no elevator there, to test that graviophliia...)

    I dunno, I don't think the Journal of Irreproducable Results is as good.

    1711:

    My whole reaction to WeWork, the little I know, is that it's offices for people who want to make a company, but have no money to rent an office, and, probably*, no business plan.

    • I read, long ago, that 2/3rds of all new businesses in the US go out of business in the first year they exist, presumably because of no business plan, someone who's a lousy businessman, and/or hasn't saved up at least one year's operating costs before opening their doors.
    1712:

    ...Boston drivers... how bad can it be compared to the Neapolitans?

    You're looking at it all wrong. In Boston all the points are worth triple due to the extra size of the cars.

    1713:

    And Americans wired into our news feeds have to deal with that DJT incoherence ever f-ing day. I've stopped tracking his twitter, especially since Dan Scavino seems to be writing some of the more coherent ones. (Not sure.)

    A quite engaging Reuters piece about researchers studying arctic methane releases. Worth a read by those interested in climate change research. Special Report: The three young women racing to defuse a climate-change bomb (Matthew Green, September 20, 2019) Pasternak, wearing a white T-shirt bearing the words “Climate: The Fight of Our Lives” and a stylized image of the Earth engulfed in flames, is clear-eyed about the stakes. “I think it’s terrifying how much we are changing our planet, and how little is really done to counteract it,” she says. “We are guessing, but the more measurements we actually have, the better we can understand what’s going on.”

    I'd wear such a T-shirt.

    SMM @ 1685 no body will hold us now. Full FALLEN ANGEL stuff Ask for something. (Also, check things.) (I was asked to wear a mask(/self-censor) about various things a couple of years ago. Did. It hurt. Will hold off on a H.O.P. joke.)

    1714:

    Not to be drawn into SMM's conversation but coworking spaces are nice for a lot of situations. Especially for situations where you don't need a client meeting room or a pile of "stuff" to do your business. If they existed 15 years ago my wife would have made me sign up for a floating desk option just to get me out of the house more.

    You get to pay for what you need instead of dealing with a step function of expenses with long term commitments.

    But one issue is the We Work is doing the Lyft/Uber model of operating at a loss to build market share which drives the local folks out of business in many situations.

    1716:

    Wenches in landrovers? I'd like to do research on that....

    1717:

    My first wife and her husband went to Italy a long time ago. She told me that the way Italian drivers drove was, "if you don't like the way I'm driving, get off the sidewalk!"

    1718:

    I just like it because it's pretty.

    1719:

    The only Landrover wench I've played with was bent and a bit rusty... still fun though.

    1720:

    There is a we-work office downstairs from me. Reading the headlines on their financials it seems like its just liberating some dumb investors of their money.

    I mean, basically, they re-rent office space. The value they provide to their customers is essentially more flexibility than traditional landlords. Rent some space from them and it comes more ready-to-go and you can drop it quickly to cut your costs if you want, you don't have to pay for the big conference room except when you use it, etc.

    But they are doing it at something like a 50% loss. And I don't see why that would turn around.

    With uber, et al, its "our app is way more conveneient"/"we will drive the taxis and busses out of business"/"we will switch to robot cars"/"we allow people to convert their car into cash and take a cut". So one can imagine Uber crushing its competition then raising prices or dramatically reducing cost via self-driving cars or just being kind of a multi-level-marketing scam.

    But wework is always going to be in direct competition with zillions of local landlords, they can't drive them under because wework is renting space from them. They aren't magically going to see their costs plummet. I just don't see a way out other than 'the dumb investors run out of money','wework raises prices','wework gets way smaller'.

    1721:

    Re: Planaria

    Laugh if you like but these creatures are still being studied because just like that battery bunny: they just keep going and going. Good SF 'biological model' for space warriors fighting on alien turf: fast and reliable (unlikely to mutate) self-repair with lower likelihood of machine-vs-human ethical/psych issues. Of course some of the electronics cyborg/robot/AI arms manufacturers wouldn't be thrilled. Anyways, think that this has some potential if only as a door to discussing the socioeconomics of gov't military budget strategies and decision-making. Example: Don't have to ship a gazillion spare parts with your space soldiers or be held hostage by a corp that holds the exclusive rights/patent for the 100,000 specifically-designed-to-be-unsubstitutable bits of machinery that go into the build of each of your space soldiers.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3694279/

    Anyways --- Not that I understood all of the above article but my take-away is that these creatures are actually pretty fascinating and much more interesting than I recall from my Bio 101 course.

    1722:

    2/3rds of all new businesses in the US go out of business in the first year they exist, presumably because of no business plan,

    Luck matters more than a business plan. As witness Google, who abandoned their original plan, and began carrying advertising instead.

    1723:

    “...no business plan, someone who's a lousy businessman, and/or hasn't saved up at least one year's operating costs before opening their doors”

    Given some of the words I hear coming out of the mouths of small business owners, particularly in terms of things they don’t believe they should have to do, it’s often more surprising that they managed to get themselves into business in the first place, much less survived their first month in business, then their first tax season, their first year, etc.

    People can make their own luck, but it is to be noted how thoroughly luck favours the witless and entitled, who retrospectively claim merits they never displayed. It really puts the silent p back into meritocracy.

    1724:

    I’m quite pleased to be described as numerate, but after this you might prefer pendantic (or just plain lunatic). I think you’re off by one (floating point place), and to get 1GWh by lifting a mass 360m, it “only” needs to be 1 million tonnes (actually 1.02, because g isn’t exactly 10), at sea level anyway.

    Which is lucky, because Morris Minors only weigh about 3/4 of a tonne, and a bit of googling tells me there were only somewhere between 1.3 and a bit more than 1.6 million of all variants produced. Which means that to get just one million tonnes of Morris Minors, you need 80-100% of every Morris Minor ever made (of any colour, so getting this many purple ones would a lot of painting).

    Personally I find that many Morris Minors hard to visualise. I wondered whether it might be easier to think in Volvo 245 station wagons. According to Wikipedia, there were 2.8 million Volvo 200 series built between 1974 and 1993, of which roughly 1/3 were station wagons, and these weigh around 1.3 tonnes. So a million tonnes of Volvo station wagons would also comprise between 80 and 100% of all 245s ever built (and that means we can’t just limit it to the baby-poo yellow ones).

    Maybe a mountain of station wagons is still too hard to visualise. Would it be even easier to think in people?

    This article in BMC says that total adult human mass in 2005 (when the world population was around 6.5 billion) was around 287 million tonnes... now that the population is 7.7 billion, let’s assume it is now around 335 million tonnes. Not bothering to look up what that study means by “adult” and looking for easy maths, let’s take that to mean the total human population of the earth currently weighs 360 million tonnes (probably “only” off by a few million tonnes, nothing to be concerned about).

    Therefore, lifting the entire human population of the earth by 1 metre gives you about 1GWh. So if everyone on earth climbed to the top platform of the Eiffel Tower, this would store around 276GWh. According to a tourist site I found, the top platform can only hold around 400 people. So to achieve the full 276GWh in human potential (SWIDT), you only need around 20 million Eiffel Towers. Simples!

    1725:

    Here's the actual joke:

    1) Everything we type is True (or soon to be True)

    2) Host is about to go to NY, so needs a bit of Wings of Desire

    2a) Market / FT etc just shit the bed over... er... well. Look @ post 1054 then at the Stock Market, using the magic Repo Market words.

    2b) Then compare peeps like that S dude who did that Brexit film playing like he's a playa.

    2c) Ask any serious PLAYA who knows the markets just how well that was front-run.

    Or not.

    We don't care. You can apply the same logic to a UK politics OP that we undid in like 10 mins and no-one believes and it's fucking tragic.

    Or, you know IL HEADSPACE OPs -

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-orders-additional-air-defense-troops-saudi-arabia/story?id=65758812

    Which was like 4 hrs ago...ZZZZZzzzz.

    And that's not the [redacted] stuff we're addressing.

    So, yeah.

    Doing this Blind and Drunk, well. Might want to think a little bit before being nasty to people we like.

    NY Archon, on full warning.

    1726:

    Oh, and Egypt is kicking off.

    It's gonna be a blood-bath rather than a color revolution (hello TurK)

    CTRL+F SINAI

    889

    ZZzzz.

    Dying here, not much fun.

    1727:

    Might want to think a little bit before being nasty to people we like. If that was for me, yes. (If not, yes anyway). (Working on always being thoughtful good.)

    1728:

    A completely random aside, the upcoming film "The Lost Girls" looks interesting.

    Peter Pan as the bad guy? Who would have thought?

    1729:

    to get just one million tonnes of Morris Minors, you need 80-100% of every Morris Minor ever made

    I fear, sirrah, that you might be slyly insinuating that there is some hint of a practical problem with my idea. I demand satisfaction!

    1730:

    “some hint of a practical problem”

    Not at all, dear chap! Quite the contrary, my contribution is to confirm it is indeed possible. Enough Morris Minors were indeed produced to make it achievable, though I suppose there is nothing to say we couldn’t make more Morris Minors for the purpose.

    1731:

    ... nothing to say we couldn’t make more Morris Minors for the purpose.

    Although you know if we open that can of worms some people would want to use them as cars.

    How about replacing the Morris Minors with Trabants? They're nearly as heavy, even more plentiful, and absolutely nobody wants to use them as transportation.

    1732:

    In terms of numeracy, this comes from the Independent. Yes, the pound has lost value, but I didn't think it had got quite that far!

    "cost $3m (£2.4bn) apiece"

    1733:

    Of those, only about 350 were the "Minor Million" special edition, painted lilac (source about every type history ever), and with a modified badge reading "Minor1000_000".

    1734:

    But on September 18th, the first of two days’ testimony at a court in Bonn, the British investment banker does his best, with slides and a laser pointer, to explain to the judge the complexities of dividend arbitrage in general and “cum-ex” deals in particular. Even the most basic cum-ex deal, he says, involves 12 steps and a web of bankers, brokers, investors, asset managers, lawyers and consultants.

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/09/21/two-british-bankers-are-on-trial-in-germanys-biggest-tax-case Sept 21st 2019

    'The men who plundered Europe': bankers on trial for siphoning €60bn

    But in continental Europe what Le Monde has described as the “robbery of the century” has done almost as much to shape the view of Britain as Brexit itself. Dutch media has called it “organised crime in pinstripe suits” and one of the original German whistleblowers saying he now welcomes Britain’s exit from the EU in the hope it could weaken the influence of London investment banking on European financial institutions.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/20/the-men-who-plundered-europe-city-of-london-practices-on-trial-in-bonn Sept 21st 2019

    Would we make some filthy joke about that kind of serious matter? probably.

    It's also very much Brexit related.

    1735:

    Coming back to this ...

    Robert Prior @ 1590:

    "An M18A1 Claymore mine weighs 1.6kg."
    "Imagine what you could do with a small drone capable of lifting a couple of kilograms? Imagine what you could do with a swarm of 50 - 100 such drones?"

    A couple of kilograms is not, currently, a small consumer-level drone. The DJI Inspire 2 (which is quite expensive) can't manage even 1 kg of payload (and that's taking out the gimbal and camera). The Matrice 600 could manage that, but now you're talking an industrial drone. 13x the mass, 5x the cost…

    A couple of kilograms exceeds the capacity of small commercially available consumer-level drones. It's not beyond the capacity of DIY, "roll your own" terrorist fanatics.

    There seems to be a mentality that if you can't find a ready-made solution on Amazon or eBay, then nothing is possible. It's the same mentality that "couldn't imagine" somebody hijacking an airplane and using it as a flying bomb. Insurgents in Iraq & Afghanistan didn't buy their IEDs & suicide vests ready made.

    Here's another thought to wrap your heads around ... other than being radical Shia Islamic Marxist-Leninists, what is the difference between the Houthi rebels in Yemen and the Viet Cong?

    1736:

    _Moz_ @ 1663: The reason Damian, paws, me and other numerate people keep treating it as a joke is that for GWh scale storage it is a joke.

    It's not such a funny joke if you don't have any place to put a 350 million cubic foot reservoir elevated 400 meters above your generating plant. What are you gonna' do then? Just sit there and curse the darkness?

    Ever heard the adage "Don't put all your eggs in one basket"?

    1737:

    On one hand, there's a real market for both WeWork and ride-share.

    For WeWork, there are businesses that really need a fractional office or somesuch. Hiring 0.25 janitors, receptionists, accountants, ... Part-time is a PITA because travel costs tend to each up compensation. For ride-share, ride-share is enormously better than taxis - mostly because of the difference in incentives. Taxis tend to end up renting some sort of medallion, meaning that your hourly rate starts negative and increases based on maximizing the fraction of the time you're driving paying fares. That and, you usually don't own the taxi in question.

    So, in my experience, taxi drivers tend to drive like aggressive idiots over long hours and avoid picking up anyone out of the way. The constant feedback/pruning for rideshare also results in less really poor service. (As in, last time I got in a cab, they rear-ended someone within 100 feet. The other cab experiences were not that much better.)

    Now, that said, most ride-share companies are intrinsically not worth very much. The issue is that it is easy to start a ride-share company - and you end up mostly competing on price. So, the margin a ride-share company can charge is non-zero, but small. (Network effects don't matter that much because different cities aren't that interconnected.) OTOH, Uber may be over-valued because they are essentially a RadioShack brand - with a reputation for jerkishness rather than useless, overpriced junk.

    WeWork is probably somewhat in a similar situation. WeWorkToo is pretty easy to start in the next door office space and can probably get customers by charging 10% less. So, you're talking retail margins with much less of a moat than, say, Amazon. The main issue is that small businesses are often less than reliable about paying their landlords...

    While luck is important in starting a business, it isn't dominant. Working on something impactful helps - even if you end up doing something different. It helps that society penalizes failure a bit too much - so fewer people start stuff than arguably should. Doesn't mean the outcomes are predictable, but I know people who've started 5+ at least moderately successful companies. (technical type, but others are similar) (Part of reason for common failures is that there are a lot of not-terribly-employable people who start companies.)

    Still, there is a difference between a business that is intrinsically useless and one that simply never makes investors much money. Ride-share and, to a lesser extent, shared office spaces fall into the category of never making tons of money. (Unless you go to full automation - in which case ride-share is good - but that isn't ride-share companies so much as it is AI companies.) So, they won't be going away unless legislated out of existence. They shouldn't be legislated out of existence, as they allow people to avoid buying cars - the go to for transporting, eg, a small humanoid from a hospital nowhere near to a subway after having your guts cut open isn't public transportation - or - around here - calling a cab - it would be buying a fricking car. (Well, not for one incident, but after 5ish per month...) Lots of ride-share companies will go bankrupt - eventually one or two will dominate in most smaller markets and make modest profits.

    1738:

    The 'light touch' as justified by J. Fraudron Brown in 2005:

    'The better, and in my opinion the correct, modern model of regulation- the risk based approach- is based on trust in the responsible company, the engaged employee and the educated consumer, leading government to focus its attention where it should: no inspection without justification, no form filling without justification, and no information requirements without justification, not just a light touch but a limited touch.'

    1739:

    It's not beyond the capacity of DIY, "roll your own" terrorist fanatics.

    True, but it's the commercially-available, made-with-safety-lockout drones that are being used in the media to illustrate stories about the possibilities of DIY drones.

    I was in Greenland last month. I couldn't fly my drone at Ilimanaq because it's in a DJI No Fly Zone — on account of a windsock and ring of stones that's used as a helicopter landing field in winter. It would have been legal to fly there. It would have been safe to fly there (no helicopters for four months). But my commercial drone wouldn't do it. Yet it is a picture of my commercial drone that is used as illustration in media stories about 'the dangers of drones' — which means when people see my drone they think about weapon systems when it can barely carry its camera and a lens hood.

    1740:

    Energy budgets suck, when it comes to drones of the lithium-ion-battery-pack quadrotor design and similar. Visions of a $10 billion CVN being chased by a cloud of "cheap" drones loaded with explosives to its detriment come to a crashing halt when the drones have to fly at fifty km/hr and more just to keep up with the carrier in a tail chase and their battery will give about five minutes flight time if that.

    OGH saw a wonderful rigged demo once (the Festo flying "bird") and immediately implemented it in a Laundry novel as a biomechanical defensive drone for one of the Bad Guys. I had to point out to him that without a payload it had a maximum flight time of seven minutes. With any sort of defensive payload it would probably never be able to fly at all since it was a knife-edge design. He persisted with it but had to throw in a lot of Handwavium to make it work in story terms.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnR8fDW3Ilo

    1741:

    “trust in the responsible company, the engaged employee and the educated consumer” None of which were present when the FAA allowed Boeing to “self-certify” the 737 MAX. Which is remarkable given that the “consumers” were large companies making G$ purchase decisions.

    1742:

    Trump's US government shutdown didn't help matters, introducing more disruption in oversight. Boeing's safety update to 737 Max was reportedly delayed due to government shutdown -Wall Street Journal reports Boeing's software update was scheduled for January, then delayed due to shutdown (Igor Derysh, March 15, 2019) Boeing was working on a safety software update after one of its 737 Max 8 planes crashed in October but the effort was delayed by five weeks due to the partial government shutdown, the Wall Street Journal reported.

    (Small bit of a grudge there TBH; a carefully timed document package of mine was turned away by the IRS because the government was shut down.)

    1743:

    Problem is that we haven't solved the problem of agency. Humans really only work efficiently in tribes. Past that limit - assuming that companies are even motivated by profit, let alone responsibility, is inaccurate.

    Imagine a human, wherein the main goal of the kidneys was to strain as much sugar as possible from the bloodstream before jumping ship. We call that sales.

    A regulatory model that treats a large business as a responsible person is just silly. A large business is lucky to not be punching itself too much at any point in time.

    That said, regulation should be shaped according to costs and benefits. Food inspection is likely wise - as the cost for independent inspection is high. Similar for medicines. The EU standards for EMI seem to be largely unnecessary. (Cause, see, we don't have that many problems in the US.)

    Finance, being occupied with many less scrupulous, should be regulated heavily, both in the interest of customers and in the interest of not bailing out bad bets.

    However, retrospective and internal regulation may also work. Retrospective - liability for mistakes. Internal - really strong whistleblower incentives. It shouldn't be 'so brave, losing their livelihood to expose wrongdoing' - it should be 'amazing, they kept it quiet for 2 years before someone got enough for the 20% whistleblower incentive - lucky person.'

    1744:

    it's the commercially-available, made-with-safety-lockout drones that are being used in the media to illustrate stories

    Well yes, because the media are limited to commercial stock photos, and there isn't a big market for stock photos of DIY drones. The photos that do exist tend to be very readily identifiable making it unwise to use them as sample photos of what terrorists use. The actual owner/builder might well sue.

    There's also the fun option of using an actual commercially made aircraft and doing a mythbusters-style hacktastic robot conversion. But again, I suspect the manufacturer would object if the media slapped a "terrorist drone" label on a stock photo of a Cessna.

    Agricultural aircraft are readily available and pretty cheap at the bottom end of the market and are designed to take a nice solid load in the middle of the aircraft. As with military aircraft, they are very maneuverable albeit also very slow. But "deliver a tonne of explosives" is exactly what they're designed for (albeit the conventional use keeps the avgas separate from the ammonium nitrate).

    1745:

    There are a lot of commercial fixed wing drones available for relatively (5000-6000 GBP) little. Having a quick poke round, 800km range doesn't appear to be unusual with a payload capacity of 5-10kg. The main use for that class of drone is for surveillance and mapping, the operator uploads a route criss-crossing the area of interest with a return to base at the end and the drone gets on with it. The insistence by certain parties that because it was the northern side of things were hit means the drones had to have come from Iran seems to be relying on no-one considering you could give the things a course that flew over empty desert and circled round the target before making stuff go boom.

    1746:

    “Finance ..., should be regulated heavily” See my #727.

    1747:

    Finance, being occupied with many less scrupulous, should be regulated heavily, both in the interest of customers and in the interest of not bailing out bad bets.

    Are the people less scrupulous, or are they being primed/rewarded for leaving their scruples at the door?

    Paywalled, but this may be of interest: https://www.nature.com/articles/nature13977

    Here we show that employees of a large, international bank behave, on average, honestly in a control condition. However, when their professional identity as bank employees is rendered salient, a significant proportion of them become dishonest. This effect is specific to bank employees because control experiments with employees from other industries and with students show that they do not become more dishonest when their professional identity or bank-related items are rendered salient. Our results thus suggest that the prevailing business culture in the banking industry weakens and undermines the honesty norm, implying that measures to re-establish an honest culture are very important.

    It's an interesting article. I read it when it came out.

    1748:

    Folks, all this stuff about how BoJo is trying to be a dictator and ripping up democracy and all that looks pretty silly now. Yes, he might like to do that, being Bojo, but nobody's letting him. Why is he calling for a new election? Because at the moment, he would win. For Labour to say he might secretly want to delay election day to prevent parliament from preventing Brexit is simply a plausible sounding outright lie. And that Brexit opponents want to prevent a new election before Brexit is settled is a crudely and obviously antidemocratic maneuver. The Brexit opponents have managed to maneuver themselves into turning BoJo into the advocate of democracy, no doubt much to his own surprise. And worst of all are those who want to drag the Queen in to do something about Brexit, to which all I can say is that Cromwell had the proper solution for dealing with that. And now that's all in the hands of a bunch of judges, who at least aren't wearing those hilarious clown wigs. Do the majority of the British people oppose Brexit? Well, maybe if you have 100% faith in polls, and there the edge is pretty narrow. None of the political actors are acting as if that was true, so I doubt it. Finally, the idea that this farce of a parliament could somehow come up with an answer to Brexit that would command a parliamentary majority is downright absurd. About the only way I could imagine that happen is if you had a really long prorogation with plenty of time for dirty deals in cigar smoke filled back rooms, bribery and skullduggery. So anyone who really opposes Brexit should have welcomed prorogation.

    1749:

    Sound of Cow Mooing outside window IN THE MIDDLE OF A TOWN WITH NO COWS

    No-one reads this, but you should probably check out Boris posing with .mil Generals:

    https://www.indy100.com/article/boris-johnson-military-army-downing-street-brexit-jokes-twitter-9114346

    Do a search. It's hilarious.

    Quick dump:

    https://twitter.com/0kay_0k/status/1174513624876015618

    That holy water exchange in full: Jokingly given holy water to take to his next meeting with Boris Johnson, Leo Varadkar asked: “Do I throw it over him?”

    https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/1175049001126768647

    Google claims to have reached quantum supremacy

    https://archive.is/8Oeqz#selection-1804.0-1804.3

    https://twitter.com/AbzJHarding/status/1175132961743745024

    https://twitter.com/rama_rajeswari/status/1175280153510854657

    ~

    Shit you should know about, but don't:

    India is hitting the 2+mil Citizen Pass / Facial Recognition DB hard, and not in Kashmir.

    CN has had a slew of videos out recently (24hrs) showing Prisoner exchanges being branded as X-Purge stuff. Veeeery dodgy sources, think all those ISIS HD vids with exclusive access to US think-tanks.

    Etc.

    "Wheels on the Bus go round and round"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HP-MbfHFUqs

    Then..

    And... We shit you not, this is true.

    Do a grep for the Lesbian Truck Driver of Pigeon Street ON THIS VERY BLOG.

    https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=pigeon+street+long+distance+clara

    Notice something? Yeah... they fucking SEO buried her.

    ~

    Anyhow.

    Our. Kind. Do. Not. Go. Mad.

    QED.

    Enjoy the ride, it's gonna be LIT.

    Pissant fuckwits. Could have made a trillion dolllllarrrs.

    LOL.

    1750:

    1355: Yes, nothing Corbyn puts in his platform is inconsistent with being in the EU. In fact, he has come out in favor of keeping the "human rights" clauses in the EU Constitution, in which the only one that ever matters is that private property is guaranteed. That's because when you get right down to it, Corbyn is simply a Clause 4 Tony Benn left Labourite, not some sort of Marxist. Except that he is too timid to advocate bringing back Clause 4 publicly, and so is Momentum for that matter, I think (don't follow them enough to be sure). Benn, remember him, was for Brexit till his dying day, and so was his follower Corbyn. No doubt in his heart of hearts Corbyn would like to be a 21st century Tony Benn, but he wants to be elected PM so keeps that in the closet, and if he becomes PM will forget that permanently within a week at most. Why is he reluctant to be in a coalition government with dissident Tories? Because he knows all about Ramsay McDonald's Grand Betrayal of the '30s, which nearly killed the Labour Party, and doesn't want to do that all over again. If they'll vote for him for PM he will put up with that, and keep his political concessions to them behind closed doors. He would also put up with issuing flying permits to pigs.

    1751:

    Houston, we have a problem.

    https://twitter.com/COweatherman/status/1174708743184896001

    Anyhow.

    ~

    PROVED.

    Really hate your species

    1752:

    1338: Corbyn's waverings on Brexit have a much simpler explanation. Labour voters (though maybe not Labour members) are divided on Brexit, so he is desperately trying not to alienate either side. With the usual result in such cases of alienating both sides and giving BoJo an easy path to reelection. At heart, undoubtedly he would prefer Brexit. As a politician he would prefer opposing Brexit as probably the smarter tactic of the two. Indeed effectively he is a Brexit opponent, just a very ineffective one. So he keeps on wavering BoJo toward success in the oncoming election, whenever it is. And every second BoJo wants one right now and Labour opposes one right now, one more Labour voter heads for the Tory column.

    1753:

    rely on no-one considering you could give the things a course that flew over empty desert and circled round the target before making stuff go boom.

    By the media reports I reckon it came from above, and therefore is a message from the Great Sky Father.

    It also occurred to me that if the UK can pirate a vessel way the heck out in the Mediterranean it's possible that someone might have driven into Saudi Arabia before launching a drone or two. There might not be any connection between where it was launched from, which way it approaches the target from or even where the bits came from.

    The bought media don't seem capable of thinking, and I get the feeling they would like very much if the likes of you and me didn't either. What "our" leaders want us to do doesn't bear thinking about. Lucky none of us are thinking, hey.

    1754:

    PROVED. Really hate your species What was proven, and what species? (Phone, hence brevity)

    1755:

    Did you catch this article on the endemic flaws in the airline industry now?
    Effectively it seems Airbus saw it coming and tries to protect the plane from the pilots, Boeing still believes in skilled pilots, but there are fewer out there.
    The author is one of those who should know, his father literally wrote the book on flying.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/18/magazine/boeing-737-max-crashes.html

    1756:

    I read the article about bad pilot training. My guess is the fastest and cheapest (for Boeing) is for them to say, you want to buy our aircraft, your pilots have to pass our flight school.

    They'd scream that Airbus would eat their lunch, but having pilots fly their aircraft into the ground is going to do that anyway.

    Airbus is not immune, the Air France crash was also gross pilot error, compounded by a control system that did lot let the other crew see what he was doing.

    1757:

    The article is a "both-sides" story, of course Boeing made mistakes but a lot of the not-even-subtext is that the biggest mistake Boeing made is allowing brown-skinned folks to fly the White Man's Magic Metal Bird. It's a racist USA! USA! diatribe wrapped up in "did you know my father wrote the book on airmanship?" clothing. The bad news for his "Aryan superman" pilot concept is that half the commercial pilots flying today are worse than average.

    Boeing are planning a return-to-flight for the 737 MAX soon and this was probably an early publicity shot for them (paid or unpaid, I don't know). Expect more fellating press puff pieces in the near future.

    1758:

    SMM @1749: Re quantum supremacy, "The system can only perform a single, highly technical calculation, according to the researchers, and the use of quantum machines to solve practical problems is still years away." A physicist I know who works on the device physics and (mainly) packaging suggested a couple of months ago that true generally useful quantum supremacy was still a decade (+/- 25%) out (if possible at all). (We do the "who's funding" tap-dance every time. Always, completely and professionally coy/mum. Which is a signal, natch. I don't pry further.) Google has surprised before (DeepMind AlphaGo etc), though.

    1759:

    Agricultural aircraft are readily available and pretty cheap at the bottom end of the market and are designed to take a nice solid load in the middle of the aircraft. As with military aircraft, they are very maneuverable albeit also very slow.

    You can source in China quadroto drones designed for agriculture use that fly for more than a few minutes and can carry more than a few ounces. They are sold for things like crop spraying on moderately sized fields.

    1760:

    Sounds like it might need fusion power to get there.

    1761:

    We lost another good boomer today.

    Cokie Roberts has passed.

    Yes she made a mint working as a report for ABC/NBC but before that she help get NPR off the ground. And as a woman that was hard.

    A couple of excellent obits here.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/cokie-roberts-loved-being-in-the-know-and-not-just-because-it-was-her-job/2019/09/20/791190d2-db23-11e9-bfb1-849887369476_story.html

    https://www.npr.org/2019/09/21/762823495/opinion-remembering-cokie-roberts

    I remember an interview she gave a long while back where she mentioned President LBJ was at her wedding along with a bunch of draft dodgers. Everyone played nice for the occasion.

    Sorry if this is too USA for some. But her philosophy of a working government would totally exclude DT and BoJo.

    1762:

    Interesting - albeit - social science studies tend to invoke a bit of necessary skepticism. The conclusion doesn't matter that much - except for indication that 'large' liability may change corporate behavior.

    @JH Corbyn's best case is a hard Brexit under Tory control, followed by a massive economic crash and public outrage and with the timer on a general election coming up. Then, a massive labor majority could happen. Not sure what happens with Liberal Democratic support though.

    1763:

    There's also the fun option of using an actual commercially made aircraft and doing a mythbusters-style hacktastic robot conversion. But again, I suspect the manufacturer would object if the media slapped a "terrorist drone" label on a stock photo of a Cessna.

    That's been an idea kicking around in my head for years now. These days it would be no great trick to build some kind of piloting robot that could be strapped into the front seat of a 172 and fly it around. It need not be a military project; such a thing is also a valid educational robotics experiment, drone navigation prototype, or drone hardware development testbed. (Think how many crashed drones could have been saved if a human were there to hit the computer's OFF button and fly manually.) Let's not forget that such planes have penetrated both Washington and Moscow airspace.

    The air speed would be mediocre for a cruise missile but until it's actually used as a missile the military has a useful light plane. (Or, if they're terrorists, someone else has a plane. There's no point in stealing it until you're ready to use it.) The preparation should take an hour or so, could be done at the launching airstrip, and needn't require any exotic tools or training; you'd probably want a few strong-bodied grunts on the team to lift everything. Presumably storage of a few hundred kilograms of electronics and explosives is a solved problem for everyone who'd ever need a cruise missile.

    1764:

    Mayhem @1755: Author Langewiesche is certainly an intelligent person and sometime general-aviation casual pilot, and his dad indeed did write the standard 1944 reference on basic flying skills (long irrelevant but not forgotten), but he's totally out of his wheelhouse on this story. And it shows.

    I'm no expert, either, but as son of an airline pilot (killed on the job by a defective safety system on a Boeing jet, but I'm sure that could never happen again), have been been following the 737 MAX story with keen attention.

    Despite Langewiesche's bad-mouthing of the deceased pilots (and his justified comments about Lion Air's parlous safety record overall), the official investigation showed that the Lion Air 610 pilots absolutely correctly followed all the right procedures and tried all the right things. The airframes sabotaged them without them even having been informed that the mechanism that did it existed at all. In fact, the airframe lied to them.

    And the author is tragically incorrect that correcting trim is (categorically) easy. The force required to adjust the trim wheel expands as the square of airspeed, creating a fatal situation if, say, your jet started plunging at high speed towards terrain and you're already struggling to regain control. It's telling that Langewiesche didn't know this, and maybe if he didn't try to extrapolate from his Cessna experience to passenger jets he wouldn't make that blunder. (I see he finally mentions this fact's basics, but not the power rule, about 1/4 from the bottom.)

    The Ethiopian pilots, by the way, tried absolutely everything in the documentation as well according to more than adequate data (even if the cockpit voice recording has been squirrelled away after NTSB got to listen to it), including the ones in Boeing's post-Lion Air 'Runaway Stabilizer Non Normal Checklist', adding in the last dozen or so seconds one additional desperation move: Knowing all about the Lion Air disaster, they tried re-enabling the two switches that applied electric power to automatic trim. Why? Because of the square-law problem: They hoped the electric motor plus their own mighty efforts to move the manual trim wheel could save the plane -- and it might have, except for MCAS almost immediately triggering again, the very system whose existence they hadn't even been informed of.

    Also, Boeing's omission of the Angle of Attack Disagree light feature by default on the 737 MAX when it had been standard on the preceding 737ng was not 'a result of an error somewhere in the bowels of Boeing', but rather money-tropism: It had been classified as a high-cost option. And no, Mr. Langewiesche, its absence did very much bear on both crashes.

    Last, I offer as an antidote to this article a better one.

    Rick Moen rick@linuxmafia.com

    1765:

    Ah, Bonewitz. Met him once I think. I do know one of his druids pretty well. Said druid, who used to go by the monicker of "the wizard with the lizard," explained to me why they are called the "reformed" druids of North America. According to him, the best of authorities, "it's because we don't practice human sacrifice anymore." His most recent activity was as the sponsor of the "Pagans for Sanders" website in 2016.

    1766:

    1755: does it even have to be pointed out that the pilots get blamed because (1) airlines always blame the pilots as the pilots are workers and they are capitalists and (2) as it happens, the suntans of said pilots are too strong for European and American tastes.

    1767:

    1490: And who was the Mayor of New York at the time? Benito Giuliani, that's who. Of course there was a coverup, and of course what was covered up was extreme corruption in the New York construction industry and so forth, not some sort of wierdo conspiracy. One could assume that without evidence and be right, but in this case there are piles of evidence of corruption that were publicly revealed long ago.

    1768:

    Erwin / JH # 1752 / 1762 And THAT would be the ultimate disaster ( Short of war ) BOZO wrecks the economy with Brexit, Corbyn succeeds him & trashes the reaminder & ONLY THEN do we get to crawl back into the EU, with an economy the size of, maybe Portugal's ... Much better to stop Brexit forst, but, as you say, Corbyn's permanent fence-sitting has probably screwed that. The ranting & internal divisions of Liebour at their conference would be funny at any other time, but at the moment, not so much.

    1769:

    Whitroth: You still take that crudely obvious forgery that the Democratic Party paid for seriously? Even the Mueller report said it was nonsense. I read it when it came out and I instantly knew it was a fraud. Why? Because of the wierdo sex stuff? Nah, who knows what Trump gets up to. Because it claimed there was a secret behind the scenes war between Putin and Medvedev. Those who know know that that is total crap, and what's more, it's the kind of crap that ex-KGB agents on the US or Brit payroll think the CIA and MI-6 want to hear. Though I'm sure the CIA and MI-6 know better. The watersports and all that was just thrown in 'cuz the guy fantasizes about being Okhrana, and wants to do a Protocols of the Elders of Zion type job on Trump. Plus he rightly figured that the DNC wanted their own version of Pizzagate to use on Trump, turnabout being fair play you know. Presumably, he's the guy who has defected to the US, and now is being treated as a brilliant source. And that the CIA and NSA, with FBI cooperation after an internal FBI war, presented this thing for good coin despite of course knowing better means that absolutely everything from said agencies about how they've got all this proof that Trump is the Manchurian candidate should be dismissed as garbage. Frankly, if Trump really was following orders from Putin, he'd probably be not quite as horrendous an American President as he is. Putin is a right wing asshole, but he isn't Donald Trump.

    1770:

    Oh I completely agree that there is some absolutely terrible actions by Boeing going on here. Releasing new systems without even telling the pilots they exist is criminal negligence in my book. And it was clearly deliberate. I also didn't think much of the "navy pilots have airmanship" line.

    What I mean by endemic flaws wasn't just the badmouthing of the pilots, although I can easily see the race to the bottom and factory production of them causing issues - and western airlines like Ryan Air I'm pretty sure won't be far behind them. That story of people following steps by rote shows up in every industry now, because universities and training institutions have been explicitly altered to ensure that lots of identical cheap cogs are produced for the corporate machines, not independent thinkers.

    It's also the non-existent safety culture in the third world airlines, combined with Airline Management expecting planes to be operating, not being maintained. And unfit planes being sent straight back out again. And I'd expect that to have already spread into second and first world locations as everyone sees they can get away with it. Because the planes are so safe, no one flaw (in general) can take them down. So they get mounting flaws until the whole collapses. The comment about the widely known florida airplane chop shops is pretty damning, clearly there's a business that needs more regulation, except that regulation is anathema to corporate America.

    But that's all the airline side. What about the Boeing side.

    First and foremost it's the requirements to keep modern designs as simply "iterations of an existing type" - the clearly obvious marketing bullshit of "same pilot type rating, same ground handling, same maintenance program, same flight simulators, same reliability". The gulf between a 737Max and a 737A is enormous, as your article makes very clear.
    And that too is a fundamental flaw. Even the automobile industry doesn't try and insist that a 2019 Toyota Camry has the same characteristics as a 1986 model. It meets the same category - mid sized all purpose sedan - but almost every aspect is totally different. Airplanes should be the same, but instead they insist that it's just a minor variation so as not to incur hefty recertification costs. Airbus is equally bad in that respect.

    It's also the cost savaging that has outsourced much of the software design to third party groups, likely sweatshops, each of which no doubt works perfectly at what it does, but god knows how well it integrates afterwards. I don't think Indian coders are bad - far from it - but I'd be staggered if they didn't have integration issues with each bit being done by a different team, most likely with imperfect information. And it appears that with the 787 the hardware design was fatally flawed as well.

    And it's a searing endictment of the fact that 190 lives aren't worth spit, since even if you had to pay wrongful deaths at a western rate, that's cheap compared to the profits being made. Capitalism 101.

    1771:

    1498: Actually, the anti-usury thing as part of anti-Semitism goes all the way back to Roman Empire paganism and beyond. Because of the Babylonian Diaspora, Jews became a commercial population in the ancient world, hated as merchants and moneylenders in the Roman Empire, that's well documented, and probably in the Babylonian too. Christianity started out as the Jewish poor people's cult during the great Jewish revolt, which is why you have all that anti-rich folk stuff in the New Testament. You get original Christianity unadulterated in Revelations, the other books are Christianity as filtered by Paul. But it's still there. (Alleged) Jesus (allegedly) said: "Consider the lilies of the fields. They toil not, neither do they spin, but theirs is the kingdom of heaven." Original Christianity was not the doctrine of "the working class," insofar as one existed, as some socialists liked to maintain. And it certainly was never the doctrine of the slaves, Christianity is quite pro-slavery. It was the doctrine of the nonworking poor, the "welfare mothers" surviving on bread and circuses from the Caesars. Which is why Catholicism is so different from Protestantism, whose message comes close to being the exact opposite of whatever the first founders of Christianity, one of whom might perhaps have called himself Jesus, advocated.

    1772:

    Forget the mayor - they come cheap - endemic corruption is a structural issue. But, yes, I had heard that. And, recently, evidence has come to light that the security services WERE warned in advance, but chose to ignore the warnings.

    It's the same in the UK. Almost all conspiracies are tacit ones, intended to hide corruption, incompetence and negligence.

    1773:

    And it's crap. It's a standard excuse of incompetent and negligent software designers, just as it is of mechanical engineers and others. You simply should NOT design software, let alone safety critical software, so that it 'fails catastrophically unsafe'. I can think of several things that could and should have been done that would have resolved this problem.

    Sending them to Boeing's flight school would only alleviate the problem. Even trained experts are prone to forget details under stress.

    1774:

    I am a little out of touch, but know some experts in related areas, and was fairly clued-up with the algorithmic aspects myself. Make it a quarter of a century, with a very low probability of being useful for more than one or two niche purposes (mainly cracking RSA-style encryption).

    1775:

    Hmm. Is there any evidence that the Gospels and Acts were rewritten to match Paul's fanaticism? Because you are implying that happened.

    Whether not not Catholicism is closer to the 1st century church than Protestantism (or even Orthodoxy) can be debated, but there is no doubt that Protestantism attempted to replace the authority of the Catholic Church, which had got seriously corrupt, with that of those books.

    1776:

    As my day job is aerospace safety I’ll chip in with the comment that when you’re looking for vendors of safe software the first thing you look for is domain knowledge. The company that makes safe landing gear control software usually the company that makes the landing gear. Outsourcing is a real challenge.

    1777:

    Corbyn's problem is that their base is inherently divided - with a fair xenophobic / globalist skeptical percentage - so taking a clear position on Brexit is pure political suicide. That doesn't make Corbyn unusually awful - just makes him a spider in a different position, balancing desperately on his little, eroding hill.

    Now, maybe his economic policies would be awful. I'm not sure (don't know enough about UK) - but - am skeptical - because - in US - policies that are pro, um, labor and also probably good for the economy end up being depicted as communistic and also likely to cause ruin. Or, to put it another way, from my perspective, the bright spot of all this is the tremors in the beige dictatorship - maybe preceded by a collapse of conservatism. From a personal perspective, probably a capitalist - but still pretty obvious that we are quite a bit to the right (in so far as that makes sense) of policies that would maximize GDP, let alone maximize utility or somesuch. Pretty much into the realm of idiot conservatism.

    @1773 Pure lawyerish BS - indirectly blaming pilots in an effort to reduce liability. Probably a rational choice. Hopefully lawyers don't interfere in fixing problems.

    1778:

    Erwin Corbyn's social policies are more-or-less standard Social-Democrat & much to be appreciated ... the current misgovernment have eroded a lot of workers' rights. It's his financial policies that are potentially a shambles .... Like trying to get large corps to make employees shareholders ... up to a very limited point & THEN the guvmint gets the rest of the "extra" shares. Guvmint corpratism in other words ... arrrgh! He describes Brexit as a "Bankers" one, when it plainly isn't - he can't tell the difference between a bank & some very shady share manipulators - see the v interesting article that < A HREF="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/20/the-men-who-plundered-europe-city-of-london-practices-on-trial-in-bonn"> was posted up earlier - very interesting indeed. His total-lack-of-defence policy is equally dangerous - he appears to be imitating Mr Lansbury ( That nice Mr Hitler is no threat" )

    1779:

    Meanwhile Oh FUCK Saudi are getting ready to officially claim it's Iran, the US will obvious;ly join in & wanker Raab ( presumably with BOZO's blessing) wants us to get involved. NOOOOOOOO! Get involved in a relgious civil war that's been ongoing since 680 CE? The insanity is stupefying.

    BOTH SIDES are cruel, primitive religious fickwits, who treat anyone "different" ( Like WOMEN ) the way the Catholi Curch used to: torture & death. WE should not have anything at all to do with this, ever.

    1780:

    I keep seeing comments about the Labour base being divided, but can't find any data to back up this justification for Corybn's inability to make a decision.

    The opposite seems more the case, where the reporting from the conference is that the Labour Party as a whole is remain, and is remain largely based on what the local constituencies are reporting in feedback from the people talking to actual Labour voters on doorsteps.

    So other than a small number of constituencies - that have primarily switched to the Brexit Party anyway - the only Labour support for Brexit comes from the leader and his close group allies who are deliberately ignoring not only the party, but Labour voters in their continued belief in Brexit.

    Really, all you need to know about the stupidity of Corbyn's position is that the key advisor who apparently masterminded the 2017 elections gains for Labour has quite because of a "lack of professionalism".

    1781:

    You have been told before that the Labour ACTIVISTS (i.e. party members) are strongly Remain, but the people who voted Labour in the last election and would be needed to elect a Labour government are strongly divided. Worse, Labour backing Remain would lead to a Conservative landslide by the disaffected Labour-voting Leavers simply not voting and the Remain vote being split with the Lib Dems.

    Corbyn is in a cleft stick and is handling this (politically) about as well as is anyone could reasonably expect.

    1782:

    airlines always blame the pilots

    No need to slight the airlines or journalists for doing this. If you read "Normal Accidents", by Perrow, you'll notice that all the huge mishaps he discusses were followed by accident investigations. You know, panels stuffed with independent experts, that sort of thing. And just about universally, the investigation winds up giving some blame to the people who were on the spot. Worse, if the investigation can't determine what really happened (and therefore what really should have been done), they still blame the operators for not figuring it out. This from people who have months of time to think, and have a budget for bringing in consultants, but they still blame the guy who was busy dodging shrapnel.

    Apparently it sucks to be the guy on the spot who didn't pull a f** miracle out of his ass.

    1783:

    DonL @ 1782 The same with railways. The old Railway Inspectorate & now HMRI often have to "blame" those on the spot - usually signallers or the footplate staff - because they DID make mistakes ... or, occsionally simply broke all the rules ( Abermule or Quintinshill ). but there are aslo completely unexplained tragedies - like Harrow or, my favourite, where there was a "hole" in the system that no-one had spotted or coulld reasonably be expected to spot, but the numbers came up & an approx 0.7 second gap was fitted inside a 1.2 second gap ( again approx) because a signaller was really superb & slick at his job - this with all-mechanical signalling mind you ( Hull Paragon ), Mind you, NOT having to "blame" someone, but "merely" to investigate & report can be much more utterly damning that anything else, when done clearly, as a recent tragedy at Stoats Nest Junction has shown. [ Railway workers on contract & zero-hours, tired & confused & "covering" for his brother, ditto ... killed ]

    1784:

    It has been reported many times that VOTERS are telling the party on doorsteps that the current Labour fence sitting is causing people to leave the party or not vote at all.

    Those in the Brexit supporting areas are leaving Labour to support the Brexit Party because they want Brexit.

    Those in the remain supporting areas are starting to leave Labour for the Liberal Democrats.

    That is the reality of the polls, of what Labour Party voters are saying on the doorsteps, and what recent election results have demonstrated.

    The reason the party remembers are remain, and are trying to force the party to have remain as policy, is because they are experiencing first hand the anger of the voters on the doorsteps, the results of the anger of voters at the polls.

    The latest poll in the Observer has Labour losing another 3 points, giving Boris a 15 point lead (and putting the Lib Dems within 5 points of Labour). And apparently some polls have Labour behind the Lib Dems.

    Most damning for the future of the Labour Party is this result from the same poll - 69% of voters say Labour's current Brexit position is "unclear" and 63% disagree with how Corbyn is handling the issue. The approval ratings for Corbyn are now the worst for any opposition leader in history. Those results in no way suggest that Corybn is handling the issue well.

    In the 2 years since the 2017 election Corbyn has managed to lose almost half the support the Labour Party had then - they polled at 40% - and has gifted the Liberal Democrats a new life as the have risen from 7% to 17%. This is a direct result of the voters realising Corbyn is trying to play both sides, and thus both sides are now pissed off at Corybn and Labour.

    The primary, and in many cases only, thing that matters in the next election is the choice of Brexit or Remain, and Labour by essentially having no position is shedding voters to parties that have a clear policy on the only thing that currently matters.

    The only way Corbyn can be seen to be handling this well is if you believe he is aiming to try and be PM after the UK has crashed out of the EU and thus Brexit has theoretically been eliminated as an issue. But the odds are that it will continue to be an issue as the Lib Dems / SNP campaign on rejoining the EU to reverse the damage, while Brexit Party / Conservatives campaign on staying the course.

    1785:

    Boeing actually fucked up super bad and is actively trying to get out from under with the blame the pilots spin

    This is a pretty excellent and in-depth article

    https://newrepublic.com/article/154944/boeing-737-max-investigation-indonesia-lion-air-ethiopian-airlines-managerial-revolution

    1786:

    And it appears even Corybn's supporters in the Labour Party now believe he can't win (aka fence sitting on the defining issue of the day doesn't work), and are instead working on how to keep control of Labour after they lose the next election and he is forced out as Leader

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/22/failed-watson-plot-exposes-what-really-scares-corbyn-and-his-coterie

    1787:

    1775: Rewritten? With the possible exception of Revelations, none of the gospels were written down before Paul's time. That BTW is something just about all serious Bible scholars agree on. The earliest Christians were not a literate lot. Given the huge difference in tone between Revelations and the rest, the idea that it was written after them is highly implausible. It it were, it would have been branded apocryphal. The only reason it's even in there is because it expresses what original Christianity is all about, so for Paul to have gotten rid of it would have prevented him from gaining leadership of the early Christian communities. What made it possible at all was that Paul got into Christianity in the aftermath of the crushing of the great Jewish rebellion, with the Christians like the other Jewish sects wanting to distance themselves as much as possible from the rebellion and prove their loyalty to the Empire. Very much like the way the Quakers went from being Cromwell's most militant soldiers to pacifism. Plus by claiming not to be Jews at all they hoped to get out from under of the murderous persecution Jews were undergoing in the aftermath of the Great Revolt.

    1788:

    I can recommend reading "The Evolution of God" for a very interesting attempted-archaeology-based walk through the history of the abrahamic religions.

    Just ignore the last chapter, where he tries to avoid getting lynched by rabid religious nuts.

    1789:

    Very much like the way the Quakers went from being Cromwell's most militant soldiers to pacifism. Thanks, that prompted some poking at some some history I did not know. This piece is quite helpful. (Long with some details, but quote captures the tone.) Militant Seedbeds Of Early Quakerism (David Boulton, 2000) That means that, if we choose, we can look again at the New Earth which 1650s Friends strove to build in alliance with the New Model Army, and ask if we cannot pick up where they left off, building this time in alliance with the democratic process. Dare we resume the campaign for a society of equals, in which the power of peers and monarch are abolished and the mighty put down from their seats, a society which is not frightened to expropriate the rich to relieve the poor, a society which at last disestablishes the Church of England and deprives it of its indefensible privileges?

    1790:

    I am busy at present, and posted in haste. Yes, they were not written down on paper, but I don't know what the word equivalent to rewritten for oral tradition is, so I used that. I agree that I should have been clearer. You said "the other books are Christianity as filtered by Paul", and I was asking what evidence you had he changed the oral tradition.

    1791:

    As I said, he is in a cleft stick. If he had backed Remain, he would have lost even more of the Leave voters than he has - now, mostly to the Conservatives.

    He hasn't been a political genius, true, but he has had the most incredible number of people and organisations trying to destroy him and any hope of rebalancing the UK's monetarism by a little socialism, using every dirty trick at their disposal. I doubt that any normal person would have done better, except by abandoning every principle he holds. After all, Blair did that.

    In his position, I would try a pact with the Lib Dems and Greens, but I doubt that the Labour establishment would let him. They were viciously tribalist even before the Conservatives became so, and I doubt they are any better now.

    1792:

    “managerial revolution“

    It appears that this New Yorker cartoon is in the “Ha ha, only serious” category. https://www.cartooncollections.com/cartoon?searchID=CC52630 (Businessman at podium: “While the end-of-the-world scenario will be rife with unimaginable horrors, we believe that the pre-end period will be filled with unprecedented opportunities for profit.”)

    "Après moi, le déluge"

    1793:

    "It's not such a funny joke if you don't have any place to put a 350 million cubic foot reservoir elevated 400 meters above your generating plant. What are you gonna' do then? Just sit there and curse the darkness?"

    Agreed. However, it's 360 million cubic metres, not feet, per GWh. And storing it as (say) solid steel only gets you a factor of 8, which means you still need 45 million cubic metres. I think that most people here agree that something like this could be worthwhile on a small scale, that is one measures in low-digit MWh. As Rick posts separately, where there's infrastructure that could be reused it could work well as an energy reservoir for a small town.

    We have existing known ways to handle Gl of water with dams and reservoirs. We have the theoretical capability to build structures which concentrate millions of tonnes into small areas. But the latter, in practice, are likely to resemble the former more than you'd think, mostly because as others pointed out things get complex when you have to account for the underlying geology (and its compressibility).

    I have no doubt at all that our future may contain many things that work like this in the kWh scale, individual households or apartment buildings, the equivalent to the big cistern in the attic once common in some countries. Weights that are lifted, or weights that are spun (the latter is inherently more compact, but perhaps has the more spectacular failure modes). It does look like batteries are encroaching this space in terms of practicality and reliability, but that also requires some technology and logistics we might not see being sustainable far into the future.

    1794:

    the latter is inherently more compact, but perhaps has the more spectacular failure modes

    The problem with any form of highly available concentrated energy is that the failure modes tend towards "very suddenly available". Doesn't matter whether you have concrete blocks stacked up, a train going down a hill, a dam full of water, a giant chemical battery or a big tank of petrochemicals. For all of them "release the schmoo" is associated with "run like hell", at least for the survivors.

    When you're in the middle of a big flat alluvial plain there aren't a lot of good options for storing lots of energy other than chemical batteries. Or, if you have water to spare, a fission plant (it's just solar power from someone else's sun, after all).

    1795:

    Oh, and I did a rough mental calculation a while ago and accelerating at 10m/s^2 it takes about a light year to change course by 90 degrees if you're travelling at the speed of light. So if you for some reason had a small weight spinning fast and wanted to use relativistic effects to increase the amount of stored energy, you'd need quite a long arm to swing it round. Or a shorter but stronger arm.

    This is also a problem if you want to time travel using time dilation, the "orbit in one place" option is actually quite a large place.

    1796:

    The problem with any form of highly available concentrated energy is that the failure modes tend towards "very suddenly available". Doesn't matter whether you have concrete blocks stacked up, a train going down a hill, a dam full of water, a giant chemical battery or a big tank of petrochemicals. For all of them "release the schmoo" is associated with "run like hell", at least for the survivors.

    Not at all. Some energy releases are much more containable than others. For example, a runaway train can be deliberately steered onto a sidetrack big enough to hold the resulting wreck. Batteries can be housed in buildings with strong, sloped sidewalls and a blowaway roof. Old-time black powder factories operated out of a series of huts, separated and surrounded by berms of loose dirt. And so on. Leaving aside the issue of toxics, the hardest thing to contain is water, because the confinement takes a whole lot of space.

    1797:

    Leaving aside the issue of toxics, the hardest thing to contain is water

    The whole blow the roof off idea relies on there being "outside the environment" to dump the toxic crap into. Saying up front "our plan is to poison everyone if there's a problem" isn't unusual, admittedly, but it is bad form.

    A battery fire is rarely catastrophic because of the heat released, except insofar as that releases even more, more toxic stuff. Likewise petrochemical fires, and I'm not entirely sure whether fission products count as toxic but regardless, they're not a lot of fun to contain.

    Train crashes are easy to deal with outside of populated areas, but like dams when you have the downhill side in a city it gets a bit challenging. Remember that we're not dealing with a normal passenger or even freight train, we're dealing with a train that's deliberately designed to push the limits in terms of both moving mass and steepness of track. That's how you get the energy density within a vague approximation of chemical batteries (density measured in $ per GWh). Until we actually see someone store even one gigawatt-hour using a train we're not going to have a good idea of how it works or whether building one near people is a safe plan.

    1798:

    Perhaps, the the Brexit supporters he has managed to hold onto are unlikely to counter the losses of remain voters to Lib Dems, and perhaps the 7 MPs he could lose in Scotland to the SNP (just as Boris has likely given most/all of the current 13 Conservative MPs to the SNP).

    But most damaging of all is that he gave the Lib Dems a new chance at life.

    A Labour Party based around remain would have achieved 2 major things though:

    1) Corbyn, having made a decision on the most important thing facing the country, wouldn't be facing the absolutely deadly leader polling numbers that he current has (not trying to say everything would be perfect, because yes much of the media would be still critical - but fair or not a leader who can't make a decision on such an important topic facing the country looks weak and brings into question their ability to lead if a crisis hits).

    2)Labour could have owned most of the electorate that is Remain supporting, and thus be seriously challenging Boris, instead of handing a new lease of life to the Lib Dems. This is in many ways the most damaging aspect to Corbyn's policy - he has allowed a party that was polling a year ago at 7% (ie. half of what the Brexit Party is currently polling at) and allowed them to become a serious contender, thus taking away a sizeable number of Labour voters. If the Lib Dems had remained a broken party polling at around 7%, and with the Brexit backing Labour voters going to Nigel and the Brexit Party (because they for the most part aren't going to Boris), then Labour could have had most of the Remain votes while Nigel and Boris split the Brexit votes, possibly giving Labour more votes than Boris.

    The thing to remember is that Labour's much better showing in the 2017 election that denied May her majority government was on the back of young voters who flocked to Corbyn and Labour as they were very much against Brexit - but those same voters learned that they had been betrayed given Corbyn's insistence in the last 2 years (including this Sunday morning on TV) that he can deliver a glorious Corbyn Brexit and thus they have now abandoned Labour (hence why Corbyn was conspicuously absent from the various festivals this past summer as he and/or his handlers were aware he would no longer be welcomed).

    1799:

    Insanely insightful until you notice two things:

    CHUKUP UK where Lab MPs already burnt through a few million making a 'third way' party, crashed and burned so badly there were scorch marks in Hell. Said CHUKPK ones who weren't totally fried then... moved to the Lib Dems. Go look for the (HILARIOUSLY WOODEN) meeting between Swind-on (happy fracker) and that ex-Lab woman (Blairite horror story).

    Tory MPs have been moving to the Lib Dems. You should know the ones.

    i.e. Total fantasy with 0% knowledge of the Parliamentary politics going on.

    And #2: total denial that geopolitics is playing any role in any of this. (Hint: it is).

    British Army to set up camps in Swindon ‘ahead of Brexit civil unrest’

    https://www.wiltshire999s.co.uk/british-army-to-set-up-camps-in-swindon-ahead-of-brexit-civil-unrest/

    Slap that onto the Boris .mil leader jaunt and Extinction Rebellion getting labelled "Left Wing terrorists" etc[1]

    Let me guess: you work for some Pol outfit that's getting burnt down right now. Probably US Dem or some nonsense.

    Here's the real rub:

    The larger footprint means WeWork must expand beyond its original target community of freelancers and start-ups by seeking to woo a host of big name corporate enterprises. HSBC, for instance, has taken up more than 1,000 desks in the new Waterloo building. Deloitte has installed its U.K. innovation team in WeWork’s Moorgate office. Facebook is even renting an entire building from WeWork in the heart of London’s theatre district. Corporate enterprises now make up about 40% of its global membership—up from 20% in March 2017.

    https://fortune.com/2019/09/22/wework-london-brexit-ipo/

    Oh, and look this one up: http://www.cushmanwakefield.co.uk/en-gb/news/2018/04/cushman-wakefield-appoints-emea-flexible-leasing-lead

    Or this one:

    WeWork’s IPO Backpaddling Leaves Israel’s Two Largest Banks at Risk

    https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3770776,00.html

    Or this one:

    WeWork Board Members Seek to Remove Adam Neumann as CEO

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-22/wework-board-members-want-to-remove-adam-neumann-as-ceo-wsj

    Or this one:

    SoftBank Founder’s Empire Is Vulnerable to WeWork Woes Masayoshi Son pledged 38% of his SoftBank stake as collateral

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-19/softbank-founder-s-leveraged-fortune-vulnerable-to-wework-woes

    Then you should look up who has stakes in Vision 1 and Vision 2 (HINT: BIG SANDY PLACE, SHIPS A LOT OF OIL) and where the hits will be coming from.

    Aramco’s Repairs Could Take Months Longer Than Company Anticipates, Contractors Say

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/aramcos-repairs-could-take-months-longer-than-company-anticipates-contractors-say-11569180194

    You should probably think about all of that before nonsense dribble.

    (hence why Corbyn was conspicuously absent from the various festivals this past summer as he and/or his handlers were aware he would no longer be welcomed

    Which ones?

    Byline Festival? Redding? Glastonbury (where..er.. might have noticed that the Stab Vest was popular).

    Or did you mean Extinction Rebellion, like two days ago?

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1175055620212482049?lang=en

    Seriously.

    There's being a Shepherd and there's being a liability.

    [1] Oh, and the C C D H group above has also some interesting links (HELLO DELHI, WHY AREN'T U IN MOMBAI, IT HAS ACTUAL JEWISH PEOPLE IN IT YOU FRAUD) that also include various horrors who love painting anything more left wing than your average Pinochet fan as "rabid"

    1800:

    OH, and if you're in any way close to C C D H or this new monstrosity (https://twitter.com/MainstreamUk?lang=en) then you need a cold bath.

    Whoever is bank-rolling those is less talented than your average hedgehog and needs a spank.

    Launching that ... in the SUN... just after the Cricket Doxxing scandal.

    Top marks: whoever's paying for this needs a word, they're getting ripped off more badly than Softbank.

    ~

    To which we will return.

    Serious Contagion to come, weeeeee.

    Oh, and if you've not noticed that Softbank strike could possibly slow down WWIII then you should go back to MF and sucking on your thumbs as clueless baa-baas.

    MBS tends to skin people who just cost him billions.

    But then again, it's a Wild Hunt, Hounds set loose, and they want that trillion dollar prize....

    1801:

    Oh, need more context?

    'Everybody wins in the long term': 130 banks worth $47tr to align with Paris Agreement

    https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/3081811/everybody-wins-in-the-long-term-130-banks-worth-usd47tr-to-align-with-paris-agreement

    Ones that have not: well, go research it. Hint: JP MORG, HSBC and others. Anglo-American power block.

    Now then.

    Who is going to win when they start really fighting?

    But JP Morg is running the WeWork IPO (er.. cancelled) and there's a load more fun coming from the ECB and so on.

    Greece. Yeah. Trashing the Anarchist communes. Not smart.

    ~

    MF and you are clueless. Zzz.

    1802:

    Best Bit.

    You've more than likely already blocked us, so won't spot the trains coming.

    Oh, and Monbiot the Gelded One is getting a kicking for his limp anti-Black-Bloc nonsense.

    I remember 99 Seattle.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5rRZdiu1UE

    1803:

    We'll spell it out for you.

    Oct 31st 2019 is a big date. Supposedly - Macron might fold once he spots the new wave revolts are getting nastier and his black-bloc violence stuff didn't work (and yes, this is why Monbiot is being forced to publish nonsense, Powers don't want Plebs noticing that it's the FR police / BAC using said tactics or whatever.... fuck me you're all so dumb)

    You've got ultra-Dominionists visiting Saud

    https://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/israel/2019/september/us-evangelicals-visit-saudi-arabia-on-eve-of-9-11-nbsp

    (That's for Greg who didn't understand the US troops - Saud stuff)

    What if rather larger things just laughed and crashed your economy while this all went on?

    Loki. My... erstwhile Brother.

    Anyhow, y'all boring. We've six (6) Storms to coax into ravaging the Americas.

    ~

    Srsly. Brexit will not happen. What will happen is probably going to be a bit more shocking.

    "EXCITED"

    1804:

    HEXAD.

    "Neither Man Nor Beast"

    Doesn't give us many other options on your deterministic label front, does it?

    But.. our Mind is still alive... so: Gods and Monsters.

    Do the grep. Delivered.

    "May Music be a curse upon you"

    p.s.

    Yes, we did front-run the entire cat ear trans* drama going on, ladies need hugs not wargasms. We're gonna just end up militarizing them all into a Dune style front so hitch up for the E-Ride. Super reflexes. Super "trolls". You get the idea.

    And yeah. Emily Dickinson is our favorite poet.

    p.p.s

    Arab Front or whatever supporting Gant is just fucking hilarious with the Ru King Makers. IL politics is traaaaaaash. Most important part is spotting the picture of Bibi doing the "Under his EYE" stuff.

    There you go: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/imageserver/image/methode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2Fb17dd3ae-dbcd-11e9-a836-b8a7068a08fb.jpg?crop=6620%2C3724%2C77%2C681&resize=685

    NOT A PUPPET?

    OOOOH. NOT A SMART INSULT TO PUT TO THE ELVES MY LITTLE SLAVE.

    1805:

    And yeah. Emily Dickinson is our favorite poet. A bit smiling/excited about this . (Re "This whole experiment of green", archives.)

    The Fi stuff is interesting, tracking now.

    1806:

    Several years back there was a train crash in my area. Passenger train ran head-on into freight train coming the other way, both doing 35 to 40mph. One of my neighbors said the crash was audible here, more than a mile away. The wreckage was pretty much limited to the right-of-way. (They were that slow because there's a tight curve right there.)

    1807:

    1798: Yes, absolutely anything other than permanent fence wavering and Mr. Honest coming off as dishonest is absolutely the worst thing electorally Corbyn could have done. What would have been the best thing? Everybody knows that Corbyn at heart is for Brexit. If he had said so during the referendum, supported the referendum, and went around saying as to immigration, "this is great, then we can let in more Syrian refugees and fewer white Europeans," that would have turned Brexit into Lexit, have totally cut all grounds out from under right wing pro-Brexit racism, and Labour would have won the last election outright. Of course, then all the Blairites and semi-Blairites in the Labour Party would have fled, but that would have meant more votes for Labour not less, as nobody liked them back then (now they are starting to look better). The ones who wanted to keep their seats could have been gotten rid of easily through that procedure whose name I forget and Corbyn keeps shrinking back from. The bottom line reason Corbyn didn't follow this course was because that would have meant Labour splitting, the ultimate horror to any Labourite except a right wing Labourite. And also because, if Corbyn really was PM with a huge majority, he'd either have to do all those radical things he talks about, none of which England could actually afford without stuff like expropriation without compensation, which the Army and the Queen would not like--or be just another Blair, which would finally discredit him. Look at what happened to poor Hayden in Australia, when the Queen decided he should go, that was it for him. And Hayden was a very moderate Social Democrat. If Corbyn wanted to be a real socialist PM, he'd end up like Allende.

    1808:

    1790: If there is one thing all Bible scholars agree on, it's the transformative role of Paul, that Christianity became a different thing after Paul converted, moved in on the early Christian communities and basically reshaped them according to his views. As for the oral tradition, that is Revelations IMHO. Were there "apostolic" earlier oral traditions that played some role in some of the later gospels? Probably, but IMHO not much. Since as far as we know everything in the New Testament was written a generation or two after that tiny cult, of which there is absolutely no trace of its early existence in either Roman or Jewish records, was born, and in the meantime you had that convulsive mass revolt in which probably half the population of Palestine died, everything we know about early Christianity comes from textual analysis and general considerations. 1798: My thoughts are not original. They come from the best book ever written about Christianity, "Foundations of Christianity" by Karl Kautsky. Best book he ever wrote, and everything he wrote in it more than a century ago stands up perfectly in the light of all scholarship since then. Especially the Dead Sea Scrolls!

    1809:

    mdive@ 1798 Very slight correction ... I have altered your quote, slightly ... [ ...fair or not a leader who can't make a decision on such an important topic facing the country looks is pathetically weak and brings into question their highlights their complete inability to lead if when a crisis hits. ] AND { ...but those same voters learned that they had been betrayed given BY Corbyn .... ] Yes?

    See also JH @ 1807 BUT JH's procedure would have mean me losing my MP to som MArxist male wanker who didn't care about women's rights, but he would be "ideologically pure" .. bah. And, of course ... most voters actually WANT a Social Democrat government, but we lost that chance with either or both of Roy Jenkins or John Smith.

    1810:

    Clean Power? An interesting advance ... note the bit at the end, where it's stated that they are switching to more & more of this, presumably as the engineering/technology gets better/more efficient/mainstream/available.

    1811:

    The book I mentioned, "The Evolution of God", gives a very credible explanation for Pauls importance.

    He was a tent-maker for rich travellers.

    Being part of his cult meant that he would give you letters of introduction to co-cultists along your travel-route, and that alone would be sufficient benefit to get wives to convert.

    That also explains why all the letters have the same general form of "Greetings to .... please welcome .... who are good people [religious stuff]"

    It is a really interesting book.

    1812:

    Australia's prosperity gospel prime minister also found it palatable to kiss the emporer's butt:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/20/scott-morrison-applauds-americas-moral-purpose-while-meeting-donald-trump

    Prime minister says Australia will take a ‘stronger stand against the biased and unfair targeting of Israel in the UN General Assembly’

    But only the unfair criticism, mind you, the other 99% that's entirely justified and reasonable we ... oh, wait, nope, we're against that too.

    Scott Morrison has used his opening speeches in the United States to emphasise the shared values between Australia and America

    Oh dear. Yep, we share the love of coal, hatred of poor people and willingness to do whatever it takes to make the almighty dollar central to everything we do.

    I'll be off in the corner crying.

    1813:

    Oh, for heaven's sake! Backing Remain in even early 2018 (let alone earlier!) would have caused equal chaos, and he would have lost even more MPs. You are forgetting that Labour MPs and membership have moved significantly towards Remain in the past year or two. And it would merely have been a slightly different subset of the Labour MPs etc. that would have been conspiring to overthrow him, even at the cost of emasculating the Labour party. The Blairites don't give a rat's arse about socialism, even the form that was practiced by the Conservatives in the 1950s and 1960s, of course.

    He had and has an impossible hand to play.

    1814:

    That is not under dispute, and is irrelevant to the point.

    If you read them, the Gospels and Acts are VERY different in message to the Epistles. Yes, the latter read that way, and clearly lead to Catholicism, but the former don't, and more logically lead to something like the Quaker form of Protestanism. I was and am asking for evidence for the claim that Paul changed the oral tradition that gave rise to the former.

    1815:

    At the end of the day the 737MAX issues happened due to management at Boeing making the imperative that existing 737 training would allow pilots to fly the MAX overrode all other considerations.

    1816:

    but I'd be staggered if they didn't have integration issues with each bit being done by a different team, most likely with imperfect information.

    My brother worked at IBM Federal Systems back when it existed and they were the integration contractor for the initial Tomahawk cruise missile. He said it was interesting experience in learning just how many ambiguities existed in the specs as a large gang of vendors brought in their v.01 of everything and tried to hook it up on a huge lab bench.

    1817:

    I can only recommend you read the book...

    1818:

    Yes. InfiniBand had regular meetings where vendors did that, and the first few were a complete shambles - though it's a hell of a lot better than not having them! I spent a lot of my life trying to stop such problems in the software standards area (not that one), and generally being told "The standard is clear enough as it is" - whereupon, experience showed that it wasn't :-( The worst problem is that you can only remove the most common failures by plug-and-hack, leaving rare ones or those that occur under unusual circumstances still lurking.

    1819:

    And does it contain such evidence? Or mere supposition?

    1820: 1736 - Your point is understood, but no amount of handwavium will create several gigawatts of potential energy in a container that isn't of the order of 350 million cubic meters elevated 400m above the generating turbines. 1737 - My trip mileage for cab firms does differ. Yes, the drivers have to pay (the local authority) licence fees, and a cab firm a weekly radio hire. They do, however, own their vehicle (or Fred does, and rents it to Joe so it's on the road 16 hours a day while only paying 1 radio hire). They are quick point to point, but not to the point of illegality, never mind recklessness. 1753 - Well, there are plenty of well documented cases of actors covering large parts of the Arabian peninsula in time of war. It's not a stretch to think that they could carry a modern "drone" with them. 1796 - Please go and watch "Unstoppable (2010 film, Denzel Washington and Chris Pine)", bearing in mind that, apart from when 777 hits the elevated curve in Stanton, this film is pretty much 100% documentary. 1798 Para 1 - This could happen, and in my view, if it does Nicola should follow it up with an UDI. 1810 - Where is the electricity coming from? That tends to be a frequently glossed over question regarding electric vehicles.

    Other glossed over questions would include why diesel ferries don't run on desulphonated fuel, which will immediately remove the SON emissions and reduce the NON.

    1821:

    For this week's mash up of Brexit & Northern Ireland & DUP & corruption & religious weirdness & corporate fuckwittery (yes this is totally a genre of politics in NI), I give you this story about Wrightbus:

    https://twitter.com/dup_online/status/1175358929162907648

    Some of you may remember them as the company awarded the contract for the new Routemaster buses in London that were a spectacular failure and the contract subsequently cancelled. This company is run by a bunch of Brexit-backing DUP-loving religious fundamentalists, who appear to have been happily syphoning profits from the company via charitable donations to religious organization run by the owners of the company. Also allegations are emerging of compulsory tithing of employee wages, and there's the distinct possibility that Ian Paisley Jnr also had his snout in this particular trough (one of, if not the largest manufacturing company in his constituency). The company's financial difficulties seem linked to the economic problems exacerbated/caused by Brexit, which the company owners were enthusiastic champions of (despite being the recipients of millions of pounds of grants co-funded by the EU).

    Throw the fact that the Routemaster contract was awarded by then-London-mayor one Boris Johnson, and it's practically roll-your-own-conspiracy-theory time!

    1822:

    Should have been clearer: That's a parody DUP twitter account linked to in my last post, which spends a lot of time highlighting the DUP's hypocrisy and stories that are likely to embarrass them.

    1823:

    Ah, ys - a re-run of about 1967/8 when they troed their own Maprles con ... attmpting to close ALL railways in NI ( Aprat, maybe the suburban line to Bangor ) & hhanding the Belfast-Dublin route over to CIE. HUge amounts of Bus comany &M-way building corruption. Fortunately stopped by the English head of NOR - who paid for it with his job & the bastards still mangeged to shut Portadown - Armagh - Omagh - Derry.

    1824:

    I spent a lot of my life trying to stop such problems in the software standards area (not that one), and generally being told "The standard is clear enough as it is" - whereupon, experience showed that it wasn't

    What they were really saying but in code was "We've spend the spec budget, move on to development so we can keep billing for the work being done."

    1825:

    No, that wasn't it in the cases I was involved with. They lacked the ability to think outside of the box (the box being "this is what happens when all goes well"), and/or objected to putting the effort in or redesigning completely hopeless specifications.

    1826:
    For ride-share, ride-share is enormously better than taxis

    I shudder to think of your personal carbon footprint to have accumulated the evidence to make that global claim. Or maybe - just maybe - you're massively overgeneralizing. (For instance, there's no such thing as a non-taxi rideshare here; if they're on a rideshare app they're a qualified taxi driver driving a badged taxi.)

    And a problem with competing with WeWork is WeWork is burning money to make sure there is no empty space next door to start your competitor in...

    1827:
    ...do something about Brexit, to which all I can say is that Cromwell had the proper solution

    Invade Ireland, kill >10% of the entire population of the island, ethnically cleanse most of the rest, and pay off your debtors with the freed-up land?

    (Cromwell is not an uncomplicated figure to endorse when there are already plenty of idiots suggesting invading Ireland as the solution to Great Britain's problems.)

    1828:

    Anyone got any more information on this? ... Google claiming a quantum-computing enormous improvement , v quickly withdrawn/suppress/hidden - or something ...

    1829:

    It used to be said that the main Irish-related task of the British Parliament was to drag the Northern Ireland politicians kicking and screaming into the current century (and it usually took about half a century to do it). However, recently, the process seems to be operating in reverse.

    While the Wrightbus fiasco is still a bit egregious by English standards, we have such joys to look forward to.

    1830:

    Well, by the sound of it, it could well have been withdrawn in order to spur interest in it :-)

    Yes, it's interesting, and they were using 53 qubits, but the paper wasn't clear enough for me to tell if they had been set up in a controlled (i.e. pre-decided) entanglement. The claim is complete bullshit, though. What they seem to have demonstrated is that they can create a quantum state and readout mechanism that is beyond the ability of any current or forthcoming classical classical computer to analyse. That is a VERY long way off quantum supremacy.

    The paper does admit that they have to solve the error correction problem before they can implement even Shor's algorithm, but the mutterings about where it could be useful are pure marketing bullshit. Until and unless someone finds other useful quantum algorithms, and resolves the other problems mentioned, that is implausible.

    1831:

    There are at least 3 ways to read this.

    Google the company made some sort of announcement.

    Google News service had something pop up on the tech subsection.

    Google search about computing and/or quantum returned some results.

    If the 2nd or 3rd choice then Google's algorithms might have picked up something this later dropped it due to all kinds of things.

    1832:

    paws4thot @ 1820: #1736 - Your point is understood, but no amount of handwavium will create several gigawatts of potential energy in a container that isn't of the order of 350 million cubic meters elevated 400m above the generating turbines.

    Why are you so obsessed with GIGAWATTS? You still don't get it. You don't need (or even want) GIGAWATTS of capacity when the solar-voltaic arrays the compressed storage is proposed to supplement have capacities measured in MEGAwatts?

    How many GIGAWATTS at peak output do you suppose this array produces?

    https://www.google.com/maps/@35.8372347,-78.6695988,413m/data=!3m1!1e3

    Or this one:

    https://www.google.com/maps/place/36%C2%B028'08.4%22N+77%C2%B035'46.5%22W/@36.469,-77.5984387,1125m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d36.469!4d-77.59625

    Or these?

    https://www.google.com/maps/place/35%C2%B000'15.2%22N+78%C2%B007'18.1%22W/@35.0061814,-78.1245421,2341m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d35.0042222!4d-78.1216944

    https://www.google.com/maps/place/35%C2%B001'21.1%22N+80%C2%B005'48.3%22W/@35.0225278,-80.0989387,984m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d35.0225278!4d-80.09675

    https://www.google.com/maps/place/36%C2%B018'50.0%22N+78%C2%B058'13.2%22W/@36.3138889,-78.972522,968m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d36.3138889!4d-78.9703333

    The largest solar-voltaic array in the world only produces 1.5GWp. Most produce less than 100MWp. You don't need GIGAWATTS of pumped storage to time shift output from a field that only produces a few MEGAwatts.

    1833:

    What is wrong with this headline?

    Trump's Ukraine admission and who won big at the Emmys?

    1834:

    You don't measure energy in watts, which is one reason you are at cross-purposes. Let us consider a domestic installation in a location which gets 20 MJ/m^2/diem, with 10 square metres and a 15% efficiency. That is a mere 8.3 KW-hours and a peak of 730 watts. But, if you are lifting 1 ton, you need to lift it by 300 metres (1000 feet) to store that energy overnight - or, limiting that to a more feasible 10 metres, you have to lift 30 tons. Storing it between summer and winter is obviously ridiculous.

    And that's a DOMESTIC installation. Even a smallish solar farm is likely to be a hundred times that size.

    1835:

    1827: Cromwell had the proper solution to annoying monarchs, though he shilly shallyed corbyn-style about it for too long, to the annoyance of the Levellers, who were more or less the Trotskys of the English Revolution, whereas Cromwell was the Stalin. They were against invading Ireland, an effort to pacify the revolutionary ferment, and they wanted more radical measures against monarchs, lords and other such.

    1836:

    1809: Greg you are definitely behind the times. These days any wanker of an MP, allegedly Marxist or otherwise, of any gender, who is against women's rights is a pariah. If there is anything definitely not "politically correct" these days it's male supremacy. For that you need particularly old school Tories.

    1837:

    Elderly Cynic @ 1834: You don't measure energy in watts, which is one reason you are at cross-purposes. Let us consider a domestic installation in a location which gets 20 MJ/m^2/diem, with 10 square metres and a 15% efficiency. That is a mere 8.3 KW-hours and a peak of 730 watts. But, if you are lifting 1 ton, you need to lift it by 300 metres (1000 feet) to store that energy overnight - or, limiting that to a more feasible 10 metres, you have to lift 30 tons. Storing it between summer and winter is obviously ridiculous.

    And that's a DOMESTIC installation. Even a smallish solar farm is likely to be a hundred times that size.

    Well, for some reason the the Wikipedia article I cited reports power output from solar-voltaic arrays as megawatt-peak (MWp), but I guess the International Bureau of Weights and Measures could have got it all wrong.

    I'm also curious where you get the idea that the purpose of the proposed compression storage is to store the energy from summer to winter. The target period appears to be 8 - 16 HOURS. It's for load balancing or buffering.

    The few fields I referenced varied in size from 6.45 acres (26,128.98m²) to 849.37 acres (343,7413m²)

    1838:

    In "The Delirium Brief", Bob has an encounter with an "agent" from the U.S. Postal Service's Comstock Office who brings warning of what's happened to the Black Chamber and their takeover of the American Government.

    I thought y'all might like to know about the REAL Comstock and the office he founded in the U.S. Postal Service.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/20/opinion/sunday/mens-rights-activists-comstock.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

    1839:

    Why are you so obsessed with GIGAWATTS?

    Because to make renewables less intermittent a grid is going to need gigawatt-hours of storage. A few MWh here and there won't cut it.

    Pumped-storage is mostly civil engineering, excavation and concrete with a smattering of sparkly bits and spinny bits. Going big is cheaper than going small multiple times in different locations with the added problem the best locations for grid solar and wind usually don't meet the preferred locations for pumped storage i.e. steep cliffs (bad for wind) and shitloads of water (not available in deserts where solar plants are preferentially located).

    The two big pumped-storage plants (each 8GWh in capacity) in the UK at Dinorwig and Cruachan are nowhere near any of the big generating stations or even that close to significant wind farms. They are, however on the British 400kV Supergrid sucking in overnight electricity and returning it to the grid when the demand is higher and prices are similarly elevated.

    Battery storage suffices for wind and solar but it costs a lot more per GWh -- Elon Musk's loss-leader 100MWh Australian battery installation reportedly cost $66 million, the Rakkasho sodium-sulphur battery installation in Japan cost four times that amount for 245MWh. Pumped storage costs about $250 million per GWh and will last a lot longer as it's mostly concrete and holes in the ground, not age-limited electrochemical batteries (Dinorwig was commissioned about 50 years ago, Cruachan a little earlier, both have no projected end-of-life at the moment).

    1840:

    Megawatt-peak is a maximum value of energy produced under perfect conditions by various solar arrays, what I call the dataplate figure. Car engines are similarly rated in the literature -- a quick Google says OGH's car engine can produce 164kW-peak but, like wind and solar it never actually produces that amount of power. In fact right now, as I type this his car engine is producing exactly zero kW since it's sitting parked up in a side-street.

    Describing the maximum possible output of a given generating facility is all well and fine (wind farm X can power 200,000 homes! but not on a calm day) but for the folks who need sufficient electricity to light their homes, pump water, run washing machines etc. the maximum output of a given plant is not important, it's the amount of electricity being generated at any given time to supply the demand which matters.

    Britain has about 22GW of wind turbines connected to the grid which generated 51,000 GWh in 2018. Some days all those wind turbines only generated a few hundred MW in total for several hours at a time. Britain has about 8.5GW of nuclear power capacity which generated over 60,000 GWh in 2018. The lowest level of output from those reactors during that year was about 5.6GW (when Hunterston A and B were taken off-line for core inspections). Right now, as I type this they're producing 6.6GW. Conveniently nuclear power plants actually produce more electricity in the winter when the sea is colder making their condenser systems more efficient. Winter wind lulls are quite common, in contrast.

    1841:

    I suggest that you look up the difference between energy and power. As I said, you cannot store power, which is what is measured in watts. You can store energy, which is measured in joules, watt-hours etc.

    My posting was CLEARLY referring to one day's generated energy - i.e. for overnight storage. That throwaway remark was because some people upstream did propose such a lunacy.

    I suggest that you repeat the calculations for how much weight you would have to lift how far for those solar farms you describe. They aren't hard.

    1842:

    "...a more feasible 10 metres, you have to lift 30 tons."

    Ah, well, there you go then - just use the house itself as the weight. Interpose some big hydraulic rams between the foundations and the walls, and have a sliding ramp up to the front door like the ones for pontoons in marinas. Or if there isn't room, a spiral staircase which protrudes through a platform with a hole in the middle.

    Water and sewage connections automatically plug in at the bottom of the travel and disconnect when the house goes up, with tanks in the house to cover in between times and also increase the weight. Or if the town gets its water supply from high level sources in the surrounding hills, the water connection plugs in at the top of the travel instead.

    1843:

    kill >10% of the entire population of the island, ethnically cleanse most of the rest, and pay off your debtors with the freed-up land

    Replace "kill" with an appropriately passive and responsibility-free phrase and you do appear to have summed up the forward planning for the Leave side. Of have I missed some more concrete plans?

    1844:

    You do realize that you are proposing something close to the Chinese Great Leap Downwards, conceived of by an Alaskan geophysicist, who suggested that Mao, back in the late 80s, could have the ultimate weapon: build 6' high platforms, and ALL the Chinese climb up on them, and jump off at the same time, thereby creating local small earthquakes, but whose waves would go around the globe, and interact in the US, causing humongous earthquakes....

    1845:

    InfiniBand had regular meetings where vendors did that, and the first few were a complete shambles

    And then there was the "TCP/IP Bakeoff" meeting, in the late 70's. They got networking to the point where every box in the room could talk to every other box. Then they all turned on packet checksumming. After that, there were exactly two boxes that could still talk to each other ! It was voted on the spot that the spec should say whatever it was that those two were doing.

    And then there were the IBM 70xx computers. When IBM tried to write emulators of them (to run on the new IBM 360's), it turned out that different physical machines had had slightly different instruction sets, and that no one emulator could run all the existing software.

    1846:

    Thanks for that link. I'd not heard of cum-ex's before, and it's nice to know just how they come up with schemes to steal.

    1847:

    Yes :-( TCP/IP incompatibilities were a significant headache even in the 1990s.

    1848:

    They're radical Marxist-Leninists?

    The difference? Well, Uncle Ho and Giap had defeated the Japanese, and the French, before they dealt with the Americans.

    Why, yes, the good guys did win in 'Nam.

    Clue: by the late sixties, Tolkien had been translated into 67 languages or so. One of the divisions of the South Vietnamese Army took as their insignia... the Lidless Eye of Sauron. Really.

    Opposing them were a bunch of short guys in black pjs, presumably with hairy feet.

    1849:

    Ah, well, there you go then - just use the house itself as the weight. Interpose some big hydraulic rams between the foundations and the walls, and have a sliding ramp up to the front door like the ones for pontoons in marinas. Or if there isn't room, a spiral staircase which protrudes through a platform with a hole in the middle.

    Going out to pick up the morning paper will get a lot more dangerous in a place like that...

    1850:

    Pumped storage costs about $250 million per GWh and will last a lot longer as it's mostly concrete and holes in the ground, not age-limited electrochemical batteries

    I've seen many claims (eg Bloomberg) that batteries are now cheaper than that price point. And since battery tech has a ongoing trend of price and longevity improvement, I don't really see pumped storage as very competitive going forward. It's not as if it's going to improve. And, most of the customers looking at batteries aren't able to consider pumped storage. I've visited some hydro generator sites (Grand Coulee, Beauharnois) and the bigness really appeals to the kid in me. But realistically, a choose-your-size product-line sells better.

    1851:

    Bull-fucking-shit.

    As I noted the other week, I've just retired. I've had a long - just under 40 years - career as a computer professional. I've worked for a lot of companies in that time, and for others, before I started working professionally.

    NO COMPANY IS REASONABLE OR TRUSTWORTHY. Unless there's six people in it - I worked for one or two like that - NONE OF THEM can be trusted farther than my 8 yr old granddaughter can throw you.

    No politician gets up one morning and decides, "I think we'll regulate this industry". There's an overwhelming outrage, and the public in in their faces screaming for regulation.

    Gee, after the collapse of the Great Depression, in the US we got Glass-Steagal. And it was repealed just after the turn of the century, "that's old, we don't need it anymore."

    THAT IS WHY 2008 HAPPENED.

    Regulate them down to their underware, the bigger they are, the more regulation needed. And there needs to be a LAW forbidding any regulators from leaving, and joining the industry they regulated. Ditto for lobbyists become regulators (or are you a fan of Mneuchin, and the new appointment for the EPA, or appointing a company lawyer to the US NLRB?

    They're ALL CROOKS.

    1852:

    They're ALL CROOKS.

    You might find this amusing then:

    All cybersecurity@berkeley students receive a Global Access subscription to WeWork workspaces. They have access to all @WeWork locations and amenities, including Wi-Fi, printing and copying, private rooms, refreshments and on-site support.

    https://twitter.com/BerkeleyCyber/status/1176232305305751553 23rd Sep 2019

    It was May 2015, and Airamo's digital media company was working with contracts and sensitive documents. He couldn't afford to get hacked. So when he saw hundreds of other companies' devices and financial records completely visible on the building's network, Airamo was stunned.

    "For me, it was pretty much, 'Holy shit,'" he said... "I said, 'Did you know that we can actually see all this?' he recalled. "The answer was, 'yeah, eh.'"

    More than four years later, and after multiple attempts to contact WeWork, including its upper management, nothing has changed.

    https://www.cnet.com/news/weworks-weak-wi-fi-security-leaves-sensitive-documents-exposed/?utm_content=101563925 Sept 19th 2019

    Anyhow, the actual scandal is not that at all.

    Go look at any location with a partner bank location, check out how weighted the banks involved # floor space is weighted (through subsidiaries in JPM, direct in other places). Basically the entire thing looks like it's designed to run a massive land grab with the IPO dump at the end offloading the cost while the actual contracts remain long after WeChrist has died.

    Some real tricky exclusion of risk / bankruptcy clauses and some real shady details.

    Ru-Roh Scooby.

    Reminds me of those book deals USA politicians do - ghost written fluff, PAC buys 100k+ copies, hits NYT best-seller list, 90% of inventory is immediately ear-marked for destruction, never even hits the stores, gullible punters think politician X is "their type of person", sends money to PACS.

    The above is pure speculation on looking through a number of sources. But fairly sure it's true. $700mil for owning the Elite Mobile Hacker Ultra-Wealth Startup Set Space for post crash?

    Pretty smooth little scam.

    And then the House burnt down.

    Oooh gonna be in so much trouble for that, but it's clearly obvious. Peons will never get to own land in the Land of the Gleaming Eloi, ever again. Ownership is for Owners, not the 99%.

    MBS is gonna be pissed.

    Best tweets on it:

    https://twitter.com/ShiraOvide/status/1176120059065982977 (check responses for best use of 'Turkeys circle dead cat' from 2017).

    1853:

    SoftBank Backers Rethink Role in Next Vision Fund on WeWork

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-16/softbank-backers-rethink-role-in-next-vision-fund-after-wework - 16th Sept. Saud already knew something was amiss then.

    Anyhow, wait till they finish building the camps in IND and crash the market there.

    That's the real pay-off.

    ~

    Brexit is just depressing in comparison. Enslaved Gammon already.

    1854:

    Sorry, I don't miss her. All I remember is decades of her giving a right-wing slant to the news.

    Of course, right now, Ronnie paugh Raygun is a liberal....

    1855:

    Of course, if what I read this morning in the Guardian is correct, Labour's 80%? 90% Remain at this point.

    1856:

    You're full of it. A right-wing paper paid originally. Then when he had it written, it horrified him so much he contacted the FBI.

    The Mueller Report DID NOT say it was crap. The right-wing media is desperately trying to spin it that way, but most of the things that can be checked out are true.

    And no, the Dems weren't looking for a Pizzagate, that takes world-class stupidity, and they're too political for that.

    1857:

    And if it's a big enough accident, find it being no one person's mistake.

    My late ex (not to be confused with my late wife) was an actual rocket engineer, and worked at the Cape, on the Shuttle and the Station. She used to be the person who did direct safety inspections inside the wings of the Shuttle... mostly, because not only was she a metallurgist, but also 5' tall (if she stood up straight) and 105lbs soaking wet, so she was among the few who could fit.

    She had no direct access - she'd be fired for other reasons - but her analysis of what happened to Columbia was that it was not losing tiles, she said they did that all the time, including larger sections. Rather, she thought it was stress corrosion cracking on the hydraulic lines that were inside the wings... and very hard to examine. Stress corrosion - you do remember that the Cape is on the Atlantic Ocean, and salt air?

    She thought that they burst during max-Q on reentry...and with no hydraulics, it had the flying characteristics of a mach-25 bunch of keys.

    But, nope, wasn't anyone's fault, nothing could have been done differently....

    1858:

    An interesting fairly recent pdf on a proposed pumped storage project in the US: http://www.pnucc.org/sites/default/files/PNUCC%20-%20Banks%20Lake%20Pumped%20Storage%20Project%20090415%20FINAL.pdf The project doesn't appear to be going anywhere right now. A preliminary permit was not renewed a year ago, but basically just because they don't let projects hang out in preliminary permit status forever. Congress failed to put a bill authorizing it through reconciliation last year, though it passed both houses. Yes, those glorious checks and balances gumming up everything until government is almost pointless.

    1859:

    You don't know shit about taxi drivers.

    Please note, here, that I, personally, drove for Yellow Cab in Philly, 1975-77.

    I hadn't been driving long, and had been a cab driver even less, when I picked up a woman. Got her to her school in north Philly as fast as I could, but full stops at stop signs, etc. She got out, said that was the slowest ride she ever had, and stiffed me for atip.

    Note also, that more than half the driver's income is from tips.

    They drive like that because assholes like you expect them to, and if they don't, you'll think that they're trying to make the ride last longer, and so cost more.

    Hint: milage racks up payment a LOT faster than time.

    Hint: mostly, it's big companies who buy the taxi medallions from the city. I was an employee, paid by percentage of the meter and tip. When I started, we got 44% of the meter. A year later, the company (and the union, who were an affiliate of the Teamsters, in their bad years), it went down to 42%.

    Uber and Lyft aren't "ride share apps", they're fucking employers, and the drivers are employees.

    1860:

    Sept 12th.

    Before the bullshit.

    Sept 24th.

    After the bullshit.

    FinTwitter and RepoTwitter and the entire US / larger business media structure just got Mind-fucked.

    Couldn't hit this side of causation / correlation if they tried. Useless. Why do they exist?

    It's called a stress test, and y'all failed. About as self-aware as your average pumpkin.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjwWjx7Cw8I

    1861:

    no amount of handwavium will create several gigawatts of potential energy in a container that isn't of the order of 350 million cubic meters elevated 400m above the generating turbines.

    Which is where batteries start to look convenient: they're what, three orders of magnitude denser than that ?

    Please go and watch "Unstoppable (2010 film, Denzel Washington and Chris Pine)", bearing in mind that, apart from when 777 hits the elevated curve in Stanton, this film is pretty much 100% documentary.

    Yes, it's an OK flick. But the plot made a big point that they weren't trying to prevent a derailment, they were trying to prevent a derailment in a populated area, because of the dangerous cargo. We started this discussion with a train carrying cheap heavy weights AKA rocks.

    #1810 - Where is the electricity coming from? That tends to be a frequently glossed over question regarding electric vehicles.

    Anywhere ! That's the beauty of electricity - it isn't an energy source, it's a medium of transfer. Electric utilities in the US get electricity from a variety of energy sources, and the mixture varies from day to day. If you have a car that needs gasoline, or a stove that needs propane, you are committed to one energy source, and your provider has a captive audience.

    As a thought experiment, imagine everyone buying electric cars, and the utilities burning gasoline to generate electricity. Then imagine they pivot to something cheaper.

    1862:

    Yeah, Greta.

    https://twitter.com/hashtag/HowDareYou?src=tren

    The whole staged scene with her looking outraged while Trump + Pence sweep by? Spare us the Liberal Minds poisoned by the West Wing.

    No-one who isn't a fucking muppet is buying it. The entire GOP don't give a fuck, their base don't give a fuck, the Cap / Fin types aren't having their heart-shadow-ash-nuggets pulled... and the clued up actual Lefties know where the money is coming from to fund this pony show.

    We do not agree with the conservative positions, but in three years she's going to end up a very disillusioned and bitter young woman, if she doesn't kill herself.

    This is fucking ARCHON levels of shit-fuckery; it never works; Extinction Rebellion is a con.

    But you sacrificed a 16 year old girl.

    Νέμεσις

    2/3 of us were watching over her: we were watching what you did to her.

    You really are all total cunts. No exceptions. There's like no Light or Beauty in your souls left, is there.

    "Death of the Sacred"

    PR companies are B ARK, they die first.

    1863:

    Fires up Oscar for the White Helmets

    You either know you're doing this deliberately or are all so fucking stupid you're not actually Sapiens anymore.

    Oh, apart from in your Panto, the agents don't die from drone strikes, you break their Minds, Hearts and Soul.

    We've seen this before. This is how you get Fascism. 100%, this is being modeled to get Authoritarian Death Squads on American Soil, 100%.

    But what a fucking corrupt and debased 'culture' this is... We're just not stupid enough to fall into the Heideggerian fantasy that the fash ARK-LIGHT might raise you out of this pitiful crab-bucket.

    Νέμεσις has rules.

    Notice how we spanked Bibi above? He must be feeling a little... more humility, right?

    Yeah.

    HOP is bargaining hard that his insult doesn't get a more drastic response.

    And you fucking wankers in the Green Capitalist Movement "DAVOS - EMPATHETIC MOVEMENTS SHAPE SOCIETY" pull this deranged and obvious shit that's going to backfire?

    To sacrifice a 16 year old girl to it?

    After Epstein?

    Get. Absolutely. Fucked.

    Purge it is

    1864:

    Epstein (and Trump and many others) bought girls from ex-Soviet States and used them as whores.

    And your fucking GENIUS response is to throw a Green Virgin Slightly-Austistic young girl into the fucking maelstrom as a fucking "SYMBOL OF INNOCENCE".

    Νέμεσις

    It doesn't work when we can immediately finger a lot of your backers as FUCKING TEENAGE GIRLS YOU TWATS.

    ~

    Fuck it.

    Absolutely done with this myopic bullshit.

    You're debased. Muppets.

    1865:

    I can't find anything on that legislation (and I suspect any roadblock is in the Senate), but apparently the permit was renewed last December.

    1866:

    “drivers are employees.

    Curious were you an employee or a contractor for the taxi form back then ?

    Nowadays (since before Uber) everyone working for a taxi company is also a contractor

    1867:

    Maybe not - but - out of the last 10 or so cab rides - I had 1 accident, 1 near miss, 4 episodes of scary driving, and 4 lovely rides. Oh, and one guy dumping a relative's wallet after snagging the cash in a dark alley. (Could have been the next ride) Out of the last 100 ride shares (mostly Juno, I have this vain hope they are a bit less awful.), I had one guy make a wrong turn and apologize. Not to mention that taxis don't even fricking come to our neighborhood. Or stop when we hail. Oddly, I don't take cabs anymore. I am not at all alone. Which is why medallions are down from nearing on a million to 160k. Sad for the drivers who took out mortgages. Successfully kill ride-share and I'd end up buying a fricking car. I'd rather kill taxis.

    I'm fine with drivers not being employees. Freedom to set a schedule counts for something. (I may also be blinded by hatred of the quality of the local taxi service.) (And, no, I don't care about expectations for taxi drivers - that just says it'll be too hard to change. If your system makes you drive terribly - it needs to change.). That said, a problem with rideshare is the oversupply of drivers, which results in intrinsically low wages. Now, not super low, considering the qualification is having a car and knowing how to drive. But, eh, this also means it is fairly easy to get a better than minimum wage job. (Bearing in mind that they're pretty good at avoiding benefits for most such jobs around here.). I wouldn't mind some sort of limiter - where prices had a higher floor and the number of drivers was limited to keep a reasonable uptime. Mind you, that'd probably crash the total employment. Meh. Still liking a basic income.

    1868:

    whitroth @ 1854: Sorry, I don't miss her. All I remember is decades of her giving a right-wing slant to the news.

    Of course, right now, Ronnie paugh Raygun is a liberal....

    Relative to Moscow Mitch (Putin's bitch) and the rest of today's GOP, he was a flaming Marxist.

    1869:

    What happened to Thomas Cook? Is it another casualty of BREXIT? And is MI6 really scared that the Russians have Kompromat on Prince Andrew from him hanging out with Jeff Epstein (or more specifically with his "girls")?

    1870:

    Brexit won't have helped matters, but my understanding from a story today is that Thomas Cook was the latest example of bad management sinking a company.

    Combination of poor decisions that loaded the company with debt (merger/acquisition about 10 years ago?) combined with an inability to accept the reality of changes (move to Internet booking, making the extensive high street network a liability that should have been cutting).

    Given the debt levels and the other issues the company was on borrowed time and even a government bailout this time would likely only have temporarily postponed things.

    1871:

    If being a leader was picking from easy and obvious choices anyone could be a leader.

    It's not, and thus sometimes a good (or better) leader needs to evaluate things and make the difficult choice.

    The referendum revealed the UK was split 50/50.

    It was obvious within months that the Conservatives and Nigel's party (UKIP initially, Brexit Party currently) were going to fight over the Leave half of the vote.

    This gave Corbyn a simple choice for getting into power - go after the remain half of the population, or try for a 3 way fight for the leave portion.

    Instead of choosing the viable solution (note I am not saying it would be an easy solution, but then again a leaders job is in a large part to lead), or even choosing the bad option, he stuck his head in the sand and refused to make any decision.

    Now full credit, he almost got lucky with his ostrich impersonation when May called an ill-advised election and did her best to lose it, but it wasn't enough.

    So instead of learning from the election - the rather obvious lesson was that trying to play both sides at once didn't get him into Downing Street - he attempted to continue avoiding making a decision even when the polls started to turn against him.

    To continue despite the polls, despite the changes in the Labour Party, despite the youth vote abandoning him, shows that leaving is more important than the Labour Party and more important than the Labour Party supporters who will be hurt by Brexit and by what could be a Boris majority government after the imminent election. Or maybe he is just a very bad leader who can't make important decisions.

    1872:

    We do not agree with the conservative positions, but in three years she's going to end up a very disillusioned and bitter young woman, if she doesn't kill herself. David Wallace-Wells interviewed her briefly earlier this September. She has at least thought ahead to her possible futures. It’s Greta’s World But it’s still burning. The extraordinary rise of a 16-year-old, and her Hail Mary climate movement. (David Wallace-Wells, Sept. 17, 2019) - Search on "I met Greta" for just the interview: I wondered aloud if she would still be doing the same kind of work in five years. “I think that I will be doing … something,” she said. “I won’t be as interesting in people’s eyes, of course, as I am now. That will fade away eventually. But I will still try to do everything I can from where I am.” I will defer to you on the rest.

    So, re Loki, the back-of-the-envelope basic utilitarian calculation is fairly clear; a sufficiently prolonged global economic depression would save (across scenarios) from (a few to a few 10s of) 10s of millions[0] of human lives. The tails are long and unclear to me, though, and there are other uncertainties and a few positive possibilities. And no rush (well, depending on permanence) unless there would be a positive influence on more local political churning in several countries.

    [0] Roughly 10 million innocents were deliberately killed in the Holocaust.

    1873:

    All I remember is decades of her giving a right-wing slant to the news.

    Everyone brings a slant. Everyone.

    She wanted government to WORK. But not take over everyone's life. That made her better than most insiders.

    1874:

    I may also be blinded by hatred of the quality of the local taxi service.

    Before Uber/Lyft I didn't take taxis very often due to me hating 9 out of 10 rides on average.

    After a few Uber's and then the exposure of their "fearless leader" I switched to Lyft. Done about 40 rides over the last 3-4 years. If the driver was willing I'd ask a few questions for my personal survey. Up until a few months ago with maybe 35 rides; - most drivers drove for both. - early on most made more money/got more rides via Uber - for the last year or two that was not an issue - 2 drivers preferred Uber as a company - 2 didn't care - the rest preferred Lyft Lately it appears that Lyft is cutting their reimbursement rates and more and more dual drivers are concentrating on Uber over Lyft.

    There was a guy about a year ago who concentrated on the area south of DFW airport. He said he grossed $125K/yr driving 60 hours per week. Split was $75/$50 Uber/Lyft or Lyft/Uber. He would flip his concentration based on which was better month to month or even week to week.

    1875:

    I uninstalled Lyft because the app kept spamming me with notifications. Uber at least doesn't do that.

    1876:

    Interesting. I only get notifications when I'm looking for a ride, in the ride, or haven't yet closed out the payment for a ride. I get an email every 5 to 20 days offering me a "deal" but that's it.

    1877:

    What happened to Thomas Cook? Is it another casualty of BREXIT?

    They wanted to run an airline. Starting one is easy. Sort of. It is a big ego trip early on. Running one is HARD. And it can be grueling after a few years.

    My wife has worked for a major US airline for 30 years now and before we met I traveled on business at times 30 trips a year or more. Many to more than one city.[1]

    So I've watched the airline biz more than most.

    To start an airline you get a few industry execs that have topped out their career paths and they make a pitch to some rich folks[2] "Hey, want to own an airline? We have a new way to slice the market and make money." Now off the top of my head I can think of Ryan, Spirit, and Jet Blue who seem to actually have done it. And there are dozens who have not.

    After a few years and the buzz/shine has worn off do you really have a different product? Did you really think you pilots, ground crews, and flight attendants would want to work forever for low pay and maybe some stock options which netted out to 1/3 to 1/2 less than the guy 2 gates down? Did you not understand the discipline required to keep something as complicated as an airline running smoothly EVERY DAMN DAY and no, those wizards 2 years out of B school really can't do it all?

    Then let's talk price. My wife has decades "on the phones". 95% (maybe 99%) of the people shopping for a flight will gladly pick a $600 ticket with 2 stops on the way over an $800 ticket that flies direct. NO MATTER WHAT THEY SAY WHEN SURVEYED. NO MATTER. PERIOD. She spent a couple of decades taking those calls. And to be honest most would make the trade for the lower price if it was $650 vs $600 if the money was coming out of their pocket.

    Now back to operations, how well are you set up to return mishandled bags, out of service plans that strand 200 people in an airport next to sold out hotels and it is so late then only restaurants open the area is a McDonalds with only drive through service.

    And just where did you plan to get those magic beans that you could trade with AA and UA to give you a few gates at ORD?

    And if you have a crash in the first 5 years? Expect to go out of business or be acquired.

    Oh, yeah, there's that pesky issue of economic downturns when people just don't vacation far away that year. Or the people in the middle east (or somewhere else) piss at each other more than usual and your fuel prices double.

    Or...

    Was it Brexit. Maybe the some of the fall out contributed but most airlines just don't make it.

    [1] It can get old. And don't try it with a family. You might not have one in short order.

    [2] Substitute VC, old line company execs, someone trying to hide dark money, etc...

    1878:

    whitroth @ 1851 And even then, you have regulatory capture. Here the "Water Industry" has completely captured the supposed regulator ( "OFWAT" ) YOU CANNOT MAKE A COMPLAINT unless the "internal procdeures have been exhausted" - & if your Water Co is deliberatelt making it almost impossible to communicate ( They DO NOT HVAe a web-address only a conveninet flii-in-form which they can ignore ) & they send you wrong bills & threatening letters & charge you for water you have not yet used ... Yup, had all of those. For the Allotmaents may I say, not for my personal use, but you get the idea. Grrr .... Your last para is also apt. But you forgot the word "INCOMPETENT" ... incompetent, arrogant crooks.

    @ 1855 YES - & FUCKING CORBYN is STILL sitting on the fence, losing votes, handing the whole show to BOZO, because he, also, is incompetent.

    @ 1859 We have a couple of "interesting" court cases going on here about just that. If ( as everyone hopes ) Uber lose, they are going to be so screwed, how sad.

    Erwin @ 1867 THIS is where the excellence ( if expensive ) of the London "Black Cab" taxi service shows up, compared to the horror stories you & others are telling.

    JBS @ 1869 (a) Not really. T C's directors appear to have been milking it, people are using the internet more, there's been long-term decline & no-one was paying attention. Oh & they were stupid & arrogant enough to "Start their own airline" - don't go there, just don't... (b) Unlikely .... if there is such, you can be sure it will either be finessed or Andy will be dumped, the former being the more likely

    mdive @ 1871 or even choosing the bad option, he stuck his head in the sand and refused to make any decision. SPOT ON. Or maybe he is just a very bad leader who can't make important decisions. .... Or maybe - he is JUST LIKE BOZO: Party ( & my "pure" little sectarian section of the Party at that ) before Country ... traitors & incompetents, both of them.

    1879:

    Blow me down with a feather! The Supremes hack kicked Bozo in the goolies, and even quashed the prorogation.

    https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2019-0192-judgment.pdf

    1880: 1832 - BIG HINT. in December and January the entire installed solar fleet of the United Kingdom produces 0.0microWh for 16 hours a day. No amount of handwavium will fix that either. So we need something else, particularly since I've (deliberately) picked the 2 months when heating and lighting demands on the electricity supply are highest. 1837 - Wait! JBS, are you trying to use Wikipedia to replace academic and practical tertiary education in power generation and distribution?

    I normally use Wikipedia to double-check half-remembered facts, not to teach me stuff!

    1842 - A house doesn't usually weigh 30 tons! 1859 - Delicately put! That said, I probably agree with you. Any disagreement is because UK taximeters clock on distance covered, or time stationary so you do make (at least some) money sitting still. 1861 para 1 - Batteries are also much more expensive and shorter lived than concrete dams. If you disagree, name me an industrial scale battery installation that has batteries over 50 years old. Several HE plants more than this age are already cited in this thread. 1861 para 2 - I'm going to guess that you'd be just as dead if run over by a 1 ton rock as by the blast from several hundred tons of deflagrant. 1861 para 3&4 - You admit that, unless the grid is 0 carbon, an "electric car" is just a car that burns its fuel someplace other than where it is right! 1869 - According to folks I know who take package holidays, charging too much for what you can get elsewhere.

    For myself, the last time I took an overseas holiday that I could compare with a package, I saved about 1/3 by booking flights and hotel direct but separately (and also got a better room that the rack rate I paid should have entitled me to).

    1878 - I've never used Larndarn taxis, but have similar feelings about the standards of both Hackneys and private hires in and around several cities and districts of the UK. 1879 - Je vais gloaterais tout le blessed afternoon!!
    1881:

    Re: 'Batteries are also much more expensive ...'

    You might enjoy this Nature article:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-50154-8

    'Graphite carbon-encapsulated metal nanoparticles derived from Prussian blue analogs growing on natural loofa as cathode materials for rechargeable aluminum-ion batteries'

    Abstract

    'Aluminum-ion batteries (AIBs) are attracting increasing attention as a potential energy storage system owing to the abundance of Al sources and high charge density of Al3+. However, suitable cathode materials to further advance high-performing AIBs are unavailable. Therefore, we demonstrated the compatibility of elemental metal nanoparticles (NPs) as cathode materials for AIBs. Three types of metal NPs (Co@C, Fe@C, CoFe@C) were formed by in-situ growing Prussian blue analogs (PBAs, Co[Co(CN)6], Fe[Fe(CN)6] and Co[Fe(CN)6]) on a natural loofa (L) by a room-temperature wet chemical method in aqueous bath, followed by a carbonization process. The employed L effectively formed graphite C-encapsulated metal NPs after heat treatment. The discharge capacity of CoFe@C was superior (372 mAh g−1) than others (103 mAh g−1 for Co@C and 75 mAh g−1 for Fe@C). The novel design results in CoFe@C with an outstanding long-term charge/discharge cycling performance (over 1,000 cycles) with a Coulombic efficiency of 94.1%. Ex-situ X-ray diffraction study indicates these metal NP capacities are achieved through a solid-state diffusion-limited Al storage process. This novel design for cathode materials is highly significant for the further development of advanced AIBs in the future.'

    1882:

    Also Bercow said the Commons will sit at 11.30 am tomorrow. This is getting interesting.

    1883:

    Interesting. I only get notifications when I'm looking for a ride, in the ride, or haven't yet closed out the payment for a ride. I get an email every 5 to 20 days offering me a "deal" but that's it.

    That's what I mean, but it was every day or two for me.

    1884:

    Indeed. And it's not unrelated to this, and reports of other such preparations:

    https://www.wiltshire999s.co.uk/british-army-to-set-up-camps-in-swindon-ahead-of-brexit-civil-unrest/

    They are delusional to think that unrest in Wiltshire would worry the government, but Swindon is an hour's drive from London on the M4.

    1885:

    You may have been able to argue that Corbyn was putting party before country up to say a couple of months after the 2017 election.

    But not anymore, given that his decisions / lack of decisions are all working towards the destruction of the Labour Party (at least as one of the 2 major parties).

    A leader putting party before country wouldn't stand around and dither while the Lib Dems and Brexit Party siphon off the membership and voters.

    And certainly wouldn't stay in the position with the worst personal polling numbers of any leader in history.

    Say what you will about the Conservatives and this mess that they have put the UK into, but it definitely was about putting party first when Nigel starting stealing all their voters. Corbyn on the other hand is trying to claim all is well while the Labour ship sinks...

    1886:

    And Boris is already taking advantage of his humiliating loss to claim that the Supreme Court decision will make getting his non-existent deal harder, thus helping to shift the blame for the future no-deal mess onto the courts.

    1887:

    I don't see how that's possible, after all the prorogation had nothing to do with brexit. Boris said so.

    1888:

    They didn't have "contractors" in the seventies. I was "part-time", I only drove 42 hrs/wk, where "full time" meant 46 hrs, 6 days/wk.

    I will note that Yellow in Philly was used by companies. They'd buy it at a discount, because it was in trouble (tax break), build it up some, then run it down*, and sell at a technical loss "tax break").

    I'll also note that one of the reasons for the medallions was explicitly to limit the number of cab drivers, so that the legal ones could earn a living wage.

    • "Run it down" includes not changing tires that had no tread, unless I could point to the threads in the tires, and the older cabs I drove (5+ years old, probably 400k-500k mi, regular Detroit cars) leaked power steering fluid like nobody's business.
    1889:

    Oh, yes, we all need a law that absolutely FORBIDS leveraged buyouts.

    1890:

    Astounding. I see that Parliament will be sitting - today?

    And on the other side of the Pond, the Orange Utter Idiot has admitted not sending the military aid to the Ukraine, and he's trying to find a weasel way to say it was anything but what it is. I just heard from a co-worker this morning that 30 more Dems have said, "IMPEACH".

    What an interesting week. And for a change, interesting for the other side.

    1891:

    Ah, it's time to play the Biggest Battery Breakthrough Since Breakfast Buzzword Bingo Game!

    Let's see, carbon nanotubes, huh, no explicit mention but we do have "elemental metal nanoparticles" and "graphite C-encapsulated metal NPs" which looks suspiciously like carbon nanotubes with bells on. I suspect the paper writers were aware that carbon nanotubes have been done to death and investors aren't willing to throw money at them any more like they used to. I'll take that as a bingo.

    "Loofa", it's green tech and organic and all, so another bingo! "Superior", yup, "novel", yup yup. Do we have a line yet? "Highly significant" and "development", YES! We have a winna!

    1892:

    I once imagined a Star Wars 7 where the new Jedi attempted to interfere with a series of violent power struggles among former Republic politicians, with a tell on each conflict. At the end the final winner was to make a speech to his followers, and they would cheer as he roared, screamed and whimpered while his form changed into that of Palpatine.

    Le Peuple souverain s'avance. Its apposite that the 'Supreme Court' rules against precedent just as Blair-Corbyn makes his appearance. What would happen if the prime minister called a referendum just to avoid the second part of Leveson, though? And if Parliament votes to extend the date of EU exit twice- the second time on Hallowe'en!- is it just to be able to pay their personal EU shorts?

    Trigger's broom, the classic BBC philosophy, cut from whole eighties stop-go cloth. Yet hasn't the BBC version of Parliament altered the mirage of a dislike of small majorities and squabbling, acclaimed as an advantage of first-past-the-post, into its opposite, public parliamentary deals on government- and celebrity?

    1893:

    1856: What was my source for saying the DNC was involved in paying for the report, and that Mueller repudiated said document? That notorious right wing media outlet, the New York Times. Granted, they didn't emphasize it and you had to read to the very end of some NYT stories, but that was my source. Can't give you URLs, as I was under the impression that was indisputable common knowledge. As to the DNC being stupid in wanting their own Pizzagate to use on Trump, it hasn't turned out that way has it? Unlike Pizzagate, this crap is widely believed, including by you. So it was brilliant not stupid.

    1894:

    MP @ 1882 & onwards Well, that's BOZO finished, even if he does bluster & lie a but longer. HOPE: That a respected-by-all MP of no party ( Ken Clarke ) gets named PM to nuke the Brexir mess somehow, with a "National GOvernement" ... Excep that I guarantee that Corbyn will fuck it up ... Takers?

    1895:

    Ken Clarke, the last surviving Thatcherite as the Man On The White Horse who will ride in and save us all. Oh dear.

    1896:

    Gee, it's sooo hard to find counter info... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%E2%80%93Russia_dossier

    Per that, one claim was refuted by Mueller. One.

    1897:

    1890: Not sending military aid to the genocidal Nazi-infested Ukrainian regime is one of those very few things Trump has done since he was elected that he doesn't deserve to go to prison for. Hey, I've been to Ukraine, both halves. The only reason the neo-Nazis in Ukraine are no longer calling for getting the ovens going again for Jews is that the main neo-Nazi group, which the Ukrainian government gave its own militia to with Obama's blessing, is on the Israeli payroll. BTW, why do I call them genocidal? Because of the eagerness with which they have targeted civilians on the wrong side of the border line. One of the main nationalist TV talking heads let the cat out of the bag a couple years ago, when he actually publicly called for killing all Russian speakers in the Donbass.

    1898:

    1896: Speaking as the author of the Holmes Law of Wikipedia, according to which the accuracy of a Wikipedia entry is in inverse proportion to the inherent importance of the matter it concerns, I am not impressed with Wikipedia as a source. But the entry you source actually confirms everything I said, though as usual spinning the facts according to the preferences of the last anonymous entry editor. Unless you make the bizarre assumption that Steele is a truth teller, and/or that the CIA and the FBI are better truth tellers than "the intelligence community," whatever that is. IMHO close cousins of the "legally challenged community," those who some folk rudely call criminals.

    1899:

    Between this post, and your previous, I've had it. You seem to spout Republican/Faux News tropes, and sprinkle them with moderate glitter.

    I'll just ignore your posts from here on out.

    1900:

    I have been since he started, mostly, though 1897 seems to mark some sort of an outing. “Comrade Major, some tea to room 67 please” and all that.

    JK really but it’s a funny world. Some explanations, even though unlikely, account for the available observations so well they may as well be true.

    1901:

    Actually, his previous one was fairly factual :-( Which does NOT imply that the rebels are any more moral. Yes, Ukraine is that much of a cess pit.

    1902:

    Wouldn't worry. No-one reads what we write and we just did a hella complex little tale.

    Check out WeWork[1]. Bit of a 'Fall of the mashiach' thing going on at the moment. (Don't mention REITs or REPO or whose holding which liabilities, apparently the US press doesn't do that kind of financial reporting).

    Major theme of Dune, shit finance complex deals?

    You did ask for teachable moments, right?

    Like: who killed Thomas Cook when they realized they'd probably self-inflicted lost the AR AM CO deal through this[2]? Pretty egotistical and petty move, stranding all those innocent people like that.

    Anyhow, bored, it's all so insanely easy to read in the Tea - Leaves.

    ~

    They're not going to Impeach Trump. Haven't got the numbers unless some major plays get done. And, tbh, we're all tired.

    ~

    Cheer up UK readers (if there are any):

    Just learnt from a friend in the City that a certain backer of Brexit lost an absolute fortune today because of the Court ruling.

    https://twitter.com/GPEArthur/status/1176494228010143744

    Allegedly Crisp in Ode Lay the one who shorted for £200 mil or so.

    But, to be fair, missing a $10-45 bil IPO was probably a little more stinging.

    ~

    If you're in the betting games, watch for a lot more sparks like this. Big Sharks moving around taking no prisoners.

    Be Seeing You

    [1] Both of them out: JP Diamond wasn't messing around.

    [2] 1% x2 @ $30 bil each?

    1903:

    We can give you vids from Ukraine that are not pretty.

    We can also give you vids showing US .mil spec forces training / working with the Ukraine Fash divisions.

    It's not exactly a secret.

    1904:

    nojay @ 1895 Oh FUCK RIGHT OFF ... Anyone who isn't an actual Momentum Corbynite is an ENEMY ... Thus guaranteeing that the actual fascists ( Farrago & friends ) will win ... I don't belive this stupidity ... WHEN WILL YOU LEARN Brexit is the thing that matters, nothing else does?

    We can worry about other "minor" internal differences AFTER Brexit is defeated - yes?

    1905:

    And thus impeachment has begun against Trump.

    The only real question (given that it is fairly obvious to anyone taking a non-political view of Trump that he is guilty) is whether this improves his chance of getting re-elected next year by energizing his base of Republican voters.

    1906:

    re: Biggest Battery Breakthrough Since Breakfast Buzzword Bingo Game!

    What most interests me is how many times the scientific research community has explicitly shown that there are other ways of greening high tech manufacturing. It's up to these manufacturers - who already have various PhDs in their own labs - to listen and set aside a few millions from their current billion+ R&D budgets to see how best to incorporate this new knowledge into their systems.

    FYI - The authors are from SKorean and US labs. The US battery market is only so-so --- no serious commitments re: investment or marketing (too few domestic buyers) therefore unlikely that this new (or related previous) research will make any difference. In contrast, China, Korea and now Europe (France esp.) are putting money into this industry, so I'm guessing one of their outfits will take this seriously, study it, integrate whatever green battery program best works with their products, market at home first to study what issues arise/must be addressed, and then sell to the rest of the planet. The US is not a major player in electronic circuit production therefore its pooh-poohing of novel solutions is irrelevant to the rest of the planet. (Asia supplied 86.7% of total electronic production in this growing -- by 15% vs. previous year -- market.)

    http://www.worldstopexports.com/electronic-circuit-component-exports-country/

    1907:

    Having just browsed through his Wikipedia entry I don't know that I would call Clark a Thatcherite given that it appears he opposed some of the policies (and successfully argued for alternatives).

    It's easy, given today's extreme politics, to forget in the past not only MPs but even cabinet ministers were allowed to have differing opinions and cabinet ministers could even at times influence policy.

    But even if you view him as a Thatcher clone it is worth considering that if Corbyn or Labour suddenly get sensible for a government of national unity that his stint as PM would be very limited both in power and policy choices.

    1908:

    Sure we're blocked, but someone warn the muppets they're running into a bear trap.

    https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/462658-lets-get-real-democrats-were-first-to-enlist-ukraine-in-us-elections

    That's a carefully scoped out defense, and it's in the Hill. They're gonna massacre you.

    There is SO MUCH EVIDENCE that Dem / Obama era people were running stuff in the Ukraine it's not even funny.

    Pinchuk, a billionaire steel magnate who is a former member of Ukraine’s parliament and son-in-law of a former Ukrainian president, has donated far more generously to Clinton’s foundation, with gifts of $10 and $25 million. According to The New York Times, Pinchuk let the Clintons borrow his private plane, attended former President Bill Clinton’s birthday party in 2011, and met with State Department officials several times while Hillary Clinton ran the agency.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/trump-ukraine-victor-pinchuk_us_5834a687e4b01ba68ac35072

    Huffpost 2016. Yeah. The Huffpost knew about it. That's before Trump was elected.

    This is an extremely dumb move. 100% Suicidal. 100% set up to fail.

    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/8921/america-is-still-training-ukrainian-troops-to-fly-a-drone-they-hate

    https://www.unian.info/war/10567929-ukraine-s-azov-regiment-destroys-enemy-infantry-troops-in-donbas-video.html

    Even BellingScat recognizes that the Azoz division are fash:

    Evidence uncovered by Bellingcat points to recent contacts between the National Corps and alleged former U.S. armed services members who are currently in Ukraine. In one instance, an alleged U.S. Army veteran named “Alex” made an appearance on an American white nationalist podcast to comment on the ease of joining the war in Ukraine. Also, an alleged U.S. Navy veteran, “Shawn Irwood,” is currently enlisted in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and maintains contact with the National Corps. Shawn had stated his intention to join the Azov Regiment online, and was linked to the aforementioned Joachim Furholm prior to arrival in Ukraine in early 2018.

    https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2019/02/15/defend-the-white-race-american-extremists-being-co-opted-by-ukraines-far-right/

    mdlve = bad faith actor.

    1909:

    Oh, and that 2019 BellingScat snow-job was after they purged all the actual footage the best they could from Western sources.

    There's 100% genuine USA / UK .mil troop vids from the front-lines circa 2015 or so they've tried extremely hard to remove and replace with the "lone ex-serviceman volunteer" narrative.

    Note: if they're still pushing it in 2019, you kinda know they're worried about it resurfacing.

    Mdlve... "Operator". Three rungs below Podesta level.

    1910:

    I think you are a bit confused, as I made no mention at all of the Ukraine.

    The point remains Trump is likely guilty of a bunch of impeachable offenses, and the Democrats haven't yet decided which of them they will pursue.

    Today's announcement is merely that they have started the process.

    1911:

    Hey, MF.

    Do you really think Trump picking on Biden's dumb-ass Son wasn't a play here? Given most of his (in jail or not) campaign staff were running Ukraine OPs?

    And you fucking muppets come running out screeching: "Biden is innocent in Ukraine", and that sets the anchor for the impeachment.

    Then they hit you with a gigatonne of evidence that ALL US POLITICIANS AND INSTITUTIONS ARE DIRTY AS FUCK AND HEEEELO IT LOOKS LIKE YOU'RE JUST PLAYING POLITICS WHILE THE BIG-BOYS PLAY REAL POLITIK.

    Someone get over to MF and the "Democrats" in the USA and fucking teach them how to politic.

    They're shit at it.

    1912:

    No, he's not.

    It's all been anchored over Biden and there's zero chance it will happen now. Biden whose eyeball burst live on screen (see above... SAME EYE YO)

    Because, and trust us on this: Trump & co are playing $100+ bil deals while the Democrats are playing $40 mass appeal to the hoi polloi.

    The Republic is toast.

    It's coming down to .mil splice and Dominonists and $$$ plays. The Dems are gelded, it's a fucking joke.

    Watch the stock market - not even a quiver. Because... if you're a Family $$ holding, you can afford to never sell.

    That's how bad your Oligarchy is, ffs. It's worse than the Russians.

    ~

    FFS.

    We just front-run you the most exciting REPO / NY Angel cash vrs Silicon Valley fight and you don't even see it.

    And like Peterborough... they really didn't expect the Spanish Inquisition to turn up and ruin it.

    Why. We. Fight. When. You. So. Dumb?

    1913:

    Triptych.

    Seriously.

    Rack up the $$$ costs in this thread alone.

    Compare it to MF whinging and cum-by-ya.

    The difference is about ~$200 billion, and they're laughing at it, they find it quaint and amusing as a protest.

    Seriously.

    We get the feedback. And the death threats. And the videos of the black sites where they execute our types.

    The personal, as everyone’s so fucking fond of saying, is political. So if some idiot politician, some power player, tries to execute policies that harm you or those you care about, take it personally. Get angry. The Machinery of Justice will not serve you here—it is slow and cold, and it is theirs, hardware and soft-. Only the little people suffer at the hands of Justice; the creatures of power slide out from under with a wink and a grin. If you want justice, you will have to claw it from them. Make it personal. Do as much damage as you can. Get your message across. That way you stand a far better chance of being taken seriously next time. Of being considered dangerous. And make no mistake about this: being taken seriously, being considered dangerous, marks the difference—the only difference in their eyes—between players and little people. Players they will make deals with. Little people they liquidate. And time and again they cream your liquidation, your displacement, your torture and brutal execution with the ultimate insult that it’s just business, it’s politics, it’s the way of the world, it’s a tough life, and that it’s nothing personal. Well, fuck them. Make it personal.

    At least we kicked them in the balls by surprise and cost them a few billion.

    Oh, and more importantly: Shattered their Pharaonic arrogance that they were masters of the game.

    Oh, and we did it drunk as a major FU.

    What did you do in the Meme Wars, Honey-Bunny?

    1914:

    Here's a hot insider tip you will NEVER see on TV.

    SEC filing for removal of spouse voting rights on WeWork was pushed on the 13th.

    16th, Sauds already know shit is dubious, pull out of Vision 2.

    You know what's priceless?

    Having the head of JP Morg having to spend the weekend as "personal banker" to these sociopaths convincing them that $700 mil and a flight to IL is a better deal than MBS personally taking them out.

    That's Personal Time taken from the KING OF DIAMONDS.

    That's the real hit: and it's fucking priceless - the man who told Congress with $$ cufflinks to lick his balls - forcing him, personally, to sort this out. That's Power

    And it wasn't fucking MBS who forced him to, either.

    ~

    That above: $$$$

    1915:

    NY Archon, on full warning.

    Now, Boy, play nice.

    We accept a primary piece personally sorting this out. We've more important things to do than sort out your inability to manage primates.

    You're lucky they had children and we're not like you. Five children? So ... utterly selfish, even in their own lives while they preach eco-friendly values.

    Such are your ways.

    Hypocrisy and lies and glamour.

    Modern tricks and crappy glamor.

    NY... trashy Archon, mafia at heart.

    1916:

    Confused Oh, it's a HEXAD:

    THIS IS HUGE: Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) and Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) signal that the panel is pursuing the politically explosive issue of the Ukraine whistleblower on a bipartisan basis by asking for an interview with the person who filed the complaint.

    https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1176571149565726724

    2k responses, 6k likes

    You do know that Ukraine (and RU) can just like, pull up $$$ fucking receipts for all this shit, right?

    America 2019 Resistance Politics: Rely on the fact that our voter base are fucking stupid cattle.

    It's.... not a great look.

    1917:

    SMM @ 1911, 1916 (Away from feeds all day, catching up.) Couple of twists: Web site by law firm representing whistleblower (pdfs) Intelligence Community Whistleblower Matter

    DJT: “You will see it was a very friendly and totally appropriate call. No pressure and, unlike Joe Biden and his son, NO quid pro quo!" Well, except for putting a hold on military aid to Ukraine a week prior to (one of) the call(s). The ransom demand was implied. Trump ordered hold on military aid days before call with Ukrainian President, senior administration officials say (Paul LeBlanc, Jim Acosta, Jeremy Diamond and Kaitlan Collins, 2019/09/24) Trump had ordered a hold on nearly $400 million of military and security aid to Ukraine at least a week before the call in question, US officials familiar with the matter tell CNN. The Washington Post first reported the figure.

    Shattered their Pharaonic arrogance that they were masters of the game.

    :-)

    1918: 1908 - 1916

    Content free again

    Meanwhile in the so-called "real" world ... BOZO rushing home to try to save his arse, whilst Parliament reassmbles. Going to be INTERESTING

    1919:

    Off topic but this is the point where I really start wishing for a "link to bottom of thread".

    Scrolling through that lot on my phone was painful.

    1920:

    Probably not interesting to anyone but the dedicated NI watchers (I know you're out there, I can hear you breathing!): Ian Paisley Jnr seems to be attempting to position himself as the "man of the people" saviour of Wrightbus.

    Haven't looked into it, but I'm pretty sure Cornerstone (parent company of Wrightbus, and inveterate funneler-of-profits to religious nutcases) are also major DUP donors.

    Self interest masquerading as altruistic good deeds? Who'd have expected that from a DUP politician?

    1921:

    Gave up on "JH" when he tried to mansplain Cromwell to an Irishman.

    1922: 1888 - "Bald" tyres (UK definition, less than 1/16 inch tread over central 3/4 of tread, visible on the rest) can get the driver a ban in the UK if all 4 are bald. It could also lead to licencing issues for the company that owned the vehicle. 1891 - I ignored that because it seemed to translate as "handwavium (see cite) which is still in research has a proven lifespan over 50 years". Seem fair? 1894 and #1895 - I don't know that I'd want Ken Clarke as PM, but he's that rarest of rare beasts; an ex-Thatcherite that I have some sort of personal respect for. 1921 - I feel your pain. I try to not discuss Irish politics between the end of the Celtic Church and about 1900CE because I know I don't know enough to have a meaningful view.
    1923:

    "Bald" tyres (UK definition, less than 1/16 inch tread over central 3/4 of tread, visible on the rest)

    In the US a "poor man's tool" is to insert a penny into the tread, Lincoln's head first. If all of his head is exposed your past the legal limit. 1/16 here also.

    But finding a US penny in Europe may be a bit tough.

    Of course some of us weird ones keep a tread depth gauge in the glove box. Along with a flashlight and pressure gauge. (The wide low profile large rim tires used on many cars these days can be 1/3 down in pressure and look normal. With a gauge I can find out how far down the pressure is when the idiot light comes on and then make a choice as to how to deal.)

    No one thing we lost with tubeless tires was the ability to drives so worn that the cords were showing. Not that it was a good idea. At all.

    1924:

    Of course I think it is a law that tires in the US have tread wear bands that are 1/16 inch high in a few places around the tire so if you can see those even with the tread the tire is done. No measuring needed.

    1925:

    Here in Finland the tread depth should be at least 1.6 mm for summer tyres and 3.0 mm for winter tyres. Sometimes the 2 Euro coin was said to be useful for checking the summer tyres, using its outer band to measure that.

    The recommendations are larger, though - one web page says that 4 mm for summer tyres and 5 mm for winter tyres is a good point to change the tyres. This is a bit more than you can measure with a 2 Euro coin, but I'd still try to change the tyres early enough, especially the winter ones. I'm not sure how to measure that without a gauge, though.

    I once borrowed a car in the winter, it had old but apparently still legal tyres. I spun it while driving 30 km/h on a slippery road, so I returned it and said that please change the tyres. Spun as in lost traction and the car rotated around the vertical axis, didn't roll. It was still quite scary.

    1926:

    I really start wishing for a "link to bottom of thread".

    I found myself wanting this often enough to find a way to make one. Create a bookmark, where instead of a URL you provide the destination as this:

    javascript:window.scrollTo(0,document.body.scrollHeight);

    It works for me in Chrome on iOS, but YMMV and all that.

    1927:

    Well now my "click the latest comment in the sidebar box" method seems lazy. :-)

    1928:

    I do that too, but often the bookmark is easier, especially on a phone. Getting to the comments box after you logged in, for instance. Liberal use of “Find in page...” seems to be pretty essential too.

    1929:

    I thought they had in-house religious nutcases to be funding? From "reading articles about Green Pastures' planning travails"-level knowledge Paisley has form for being in their corner but it doesn't seem to be party-wide...

    (Is Paisley being sensitive to the classic route to holding your seat in Irish politics - plenty of people saying "he looked after us when" round elections - as believable as him wanting to keep the cash supply coming?)

    1930:

    My guess is that takeover talks have stalled because 'they' are trying to preserve the current donation arrangements under new ownership. But maybe I am being too cynical!

    1931:

    Oh I have no interest in driving on legal but thin tread when there is water on the roads. It is sooooooo much fun when you touch the brakes to slow down for an intersection and the anti skid system kicks in.

    1932:

    Also driving on ice and snow is quite fun. We get enough snow during the winter, usually, that it's compressed into ice on many roads, and often even with brand new tyres and driving at something like 30-40 km/h (18-25 mph) the anti-skid kicks in when braking.

    Once when I was much younger and stupider, I tried how it would feel to get into a skid on a wet motorway while driving too fast, and if it was at all possible. I realized quite fast that driving at 100 km/h on a road and feeling that the tyres don't really connect to the ground and I can't steer wasn't fun at all. I managed not to crash, and never did it again on purpose.

    We get this short course on how to drive on slippery surfaces in the driving school, and that has helped me a few times to react properly in a bad situation.

    1933:

    I spun it while driving 30 km/h on a slippery road, so I returned it and said that please change the tyres. Spun as in lost traction and the car rotated around the vertical axis, didn't roll. It was still quite scary.

    I've done that too. Me in a Honda Civic, a few days before Christmas, trying to get across Status Pass in a snowstorm. Luckily there was no other traffic and a high snowbank for me to spin into nose-first; almost any other situation would have been much worse. It's not my favorite driving memory!

    My only other memorable spin-out was in pouring rain when I took an unexpectedly sharp corner too fast and hydroplaned into a guardrail. (I only lost a headlight doing that; I was lucky.) At least then I knew instantly what was wrong and why; in the other incident, I was driving along at about 30 mph along a snowy road and without warning the car was rotating counterclockwise and the steering wheel didn't steer the car any more.

    1934:

    One of the few things I miss about my 96 Explorer was the ability to put the transmission into a 4 wheel drive mode where the differentials were locked. You had some slip when turning but then again this mode was made for when 10mph was fast. Turning on dry payments in this mode you felt the tires slipping on the pavement.

    1935:

    So BoJo flew back to London overnight. I expect things to be a bit strained in a few offices this morning.

    1936:

    (Is Paisley being sensitive to the classic route to holding your seat in Irish politics - plenty of people saying "he looked after us when" round elections - as believable as him wanting to keep the cash supply coming?)

    While bashing Paisley and the DUP for their standard mix of religious hypocrisy and venal corruption is fun, I suspect that this is in fact closer to the truth. Despite strong support in the Antrim heartlands, his recent shennanigans have damaged his brand, and he needs to brush up his "concern for the locals" credentials before the next election (which of course could be quite soon).

    1937:

    The latest I've heard (people with good insider contacts) is that JCB made a firm offer to take over the company, but the Cornerstone Corporation won't sell the site and buildings -- they want to retain ownership and charge rent. JCB said "no".

    The estimated total amount funnelled from Cornerstone Corporations to religious organisations (primarily the Green Pastures Ministry -- controlled by Jeff Wright, also on Cornerstone board) in the last few years is 23 million pounds. More than enough to have kept Wrightbus liquid.

    1938:

    Ah. So that's how they are fiddling it. I have heard of that trick being used before.

    1939:

    That's not how I have my own vehicle. However, I'd been driving a cab less than a year (this is mid-70's), and I think I even had a fare in the back, and had to suddenly hit the brakes at a light (heavy traffic, downtown Philly... and suddenly found myself with a flat, and having to call in on the radio for a tow, and someone to take my fare.

    I let them know I was NOT HAPPY, and after that, included checking all the tires before I drove out of the garage.

    1940:

    And the impeachment inquiry is finally finally on.

    Pelosi was clearly made to understand it was now politically advantageous. For one, with documented lawbreaking (he withheld the military aid to the Ukraine, then, days later, called, and told him he wanted help on getting dirt on Biden - that directly violates US laws, several of them), the Dems are going to look like Upholders of the Law'n'order, and the GOP trying to deny it are in such an incredibly weak position, and the Dems, for once, can run against them next year as the GOP being beyond weak on law and defence and everything else....

    And then there's one of the two GOP challengers running against the Orange Idiot for the GOP nomination, who said, to the media yesterday, what Trump did is TREASON, and the penalty for treason is...death.

    He really doesn't like Trump....

    1941:

    Cynic: The Donbass movement started as a Donbass autonomy movement with leftist trimmings, though I didn't care for all those Stalin banners. But then the Russian nationalists and Putin's people took over and various lefty types started being banned and meeting bad ends. Still, it is putatively obvious that the local Donbass population prefers Putin's buddies to the Ukrainian nationalists who want to at best make them second class citizens, so their right to autonomy, or even to join Russia if they want, should be respected. As for impeaching Trump over bringing Ukrainians into US politics, that's hilarious, given the notorious and extreme US involvement in Ukrainian politics, with Obama's lady on the spot deciding over the phone which US puppet should be the Ukrainian President. Is that technically impeachable? Sure, but if the Democrats had any principles, they'd want to impeach him over one of his actual crimes. Like say putting immigrants into filthy disease ridden concentration camps, separating mothers from children, etc.? Well that would be tricky, given that Obama did the same thing and the Demos in Congress (with only four exceptions) voted to increase funding for the concentration camps!

    1942:

    Blair's Supreme Court reminds me of the 'you have been supplied with a false idol speech' someone who claims that he can't be judged on international genocide because the relevant court wasn't sitting is no-one I want to design a new legal system. Also, my perception of the Squad in a political context is from Irish history. If we have to supply the President with fake laws by air on request, then I want a share, not guns pointed at me, or it does not have my support.

    The prime minister is right this far, if the House does not approve of his government they have to vote it down, not place their confidence in their own poll strategists. Otherwise, if he doesn't include the repeal of Blair's legal reforms in his manifesto then he is not a fool, he is Blair's fool. If he wants to be a Churchill then he could rid us of all the political structures in this country set up by the appeasers, they were part of the twentieth century. Not extend them by means of the 'backstop' or any further means whatsoever.

    We are approaching the greatest humiliation since Suez and Singapore, all that is offered by this crooked House is that one of last century's parties wants to continue the harangue, the other says 'If you gotta go, you gotta go.'

    1943:

    1921: C'mon Dave, let's try to be a bit more honest here, and do a bit less "mansplaining" of your own. I wasn't talking about what Cromwell did to Ireland, but about cutting off the head of Charles I. Your bringing in Cromwell's genocidal actions in Ireland was a change the subject cheapshot. If you disagreed with anything I said about Cromwell, why didn't you just say so?

    1944:

    Elderly Cynic @ 1884: Indeed. And it's not unrelated to this, and reports of other such preparations:

    https://www.wiltshire999s.co.uk/british-army-to-set-up-camps-in-swindon-ahead-of-brexit-civil-unrest/

    They are delusional to think that unrest in Wiltshire would worry the government, but Swindon is an hour's drive from London on the M4.

    I expect THEY don't want to set up the concentration camps in the middle of Hyde Park in London because it would adversely affect tourism revenues. Probably going to need as much of that as they can get after the crash out, so somewhere out in the boonies is a better location.

    1945:

    Oh dear. Some brief words of advice:

    – Check who wrote what before trying to mock someone for something they didn’t write. Makes you look a bit of a pillock otherwise.

    – Don’t try mockery using words you don’t understand, or terms that don’t fit. Makes you look even more of a pillock.

    – Don’t try witty repartee if the best you can come up with is a variation of “I know you are, but what am I?”

    Here endeth the lesson.

    1946:

    Mikko Parviainen @ 1932: Also driving on ice and snow is quite fun. We get enough snow during the winter, usually, that it's compressed into ice on many roads, and often even with brand new tyres and driving at something like 30-40 km/h (18-25 mph) the anti-skid kicks in when braking.

    Once when I was much younger and stupider, I tried how it would feel to get into a skid on a wet motorway while driving too fast, and if it was at all possible. I realized quite fast that driving at 100 km/h on a road and feeling that the tyres don't really connect to the ground and I can't steer wasn't fun at all. I managed not to crash, and never did it again on purpose.

    We get this short course on how to drive on slippery surfaces in the driving school, and that has helped me a few times to react properly in a bad situation.

    Here in central North Carolina, on average we get about 3 "snowstorms" in 2 years; anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of snow each time.

    One of the things about living in Raleigh is a half-inch of snow will pretty much shut everything down. Most businesses close because all their employees stayed home because daycare & schools are all closed. Plus, to add insult to injury, Raleigh has a city ordinance that if you go out in the snow without adequate chains or snow tires & get stuck they tow your car away & it's a whopping big fine on top of the bill for the impoundment. And if you do get stuck, then by definition, you didn't have adequate chains or snow tires.

    I drive manual transmission cars & have never been stuck, although I do carry a shovel & rake & other implements of destruction with me whenever I have to go out in that shit. I have had to dig my way through a couple of times because my little Fords only had six inches or so ground clearance. The key is to take it easy, go slow and wave at the idiots who sped past you and are now stuck in a ditch somewhere along the way. With a manual transmission you don't need a lot of braking in snow. Just take your foot off the gas and you'll slow down pretty quickly.

    I worked for IBM at Research Triangle Park for a while and they're run by people from upstate New York, for whom 3 inches of snow is NOTHING!. Every time we'd get a winter storm, they'd keep IBM open so you had to take a vacation day, sick day or personal day if you decided NOT to leave the kids to their own devices at home because schools/daycare was closed. I'd always go in because by mid-day they would close & send everyone home and we got paid for the whole day.

    Then in 2000 we had a massive snow storm. The forecast was for something like 3 inches accumulation ... I got 24 inches at my house in downtown Raleigh. I was certain that this time IBM would be closed. So I tuned in to the radio station they paid to make the announcement & sure enough "IBM will be closed today, ALL SHIFTS" ... and then the kicker "... and the Governor has called out the National Guard.

    No sooner were the words out of his mouth and my phone rang. It was the 1st Sgt calling to tell me to saddle up and head out to the airport where our armory was located & go dig out a HMMWV (Humvee) so I could pick up & ferry critical personnel needed to staff the Emergency Operations Center.

    The worst part of it was I got home after midnight to find my next door neighbor's brand new, shiny, GIGANTIC SUV parked in the spot where I had dug my car out that morning, so I had to dig out another spot to park my car. I couldn't find a single "church key" anywhere in my house and was too tired to let all the air out of his tires.

    1947:

    JBS @ 1946 Proper Land-Rover, chunky tires, abilty to lock central differential at will, 3 different stes of gesr ratios ... yes, even then I have slid, never far, never been stuck on road, when others have had serious difficulties ...

    1948:

    Is this as full of non-sequiturs as I think, or am I just overtired?

    1949:

    I haven't spun out, but I've hydroplaned a couple of times, once in a fairly heavy rain while going up a small rise in the street (maybe two meters of rise), and once when braking while going down an exit ramp to a stop. (It's nearly always a stop at that intersection, in my experience.) And once I had to get out of mud - it's at least as bad as snow for getting stuck. I did it the same way as if it were snow: low gear, easy on the accelerator. (And made a mental note not to do that again.)

    1950:

    This is all about arms deals.

    Trump leaked that because the (installed via oligarch) Ukraine Joker PM mentioned the Javelin deal.

    This is SRS BUZNS to RU

    https://www.rferl.org/a/us-ambassador-ukraine-asks-to-buy-more-javelin-missiles/30093162.html https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ukraine-now-has-americas-javelin-missile-and-russia-isnt-happy-83016 https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/javelin-missiles-ukraine/story?id=65855233

    NATO and USA aren't supposed to equip non-list states with them (it's a BIG fucking part of MANPADs in MENA, check out USA - UAE - Libya tech leaking all over the shop).

    You're especially not supposed to place them in states who are run by DODGY oligarchs with heavy ties to other states (hello IL!) who are notorious for stealing tech & selling it on (to.. like... CN).

    It's a burn. PM of Ukraine was told Dem. wouldn't release his side of the transcripts. GOP twitter is going wild over this (and his realization during the UN summit that he'd been 100% fucked - go find it).

    Ramifications: Turkey is talking about getting X now. MENA who are signing up to Patriot deals left, right and centre (while the Russians troll them about buying their new weapon systems since AR AM CO was a bust and has a Patriot site right next to it) probably just threw another 400 billion into the kitty.

    CN has already ratified the $400 bil / 10 yr oil deal with Iran anyhow.

    MF and most posters here really aren't jaded / evil enough to realize what's being done.

    ~

    It's a Bear Trap.

    Oh, and Biden's Eye really did burst live on TV and no-one reported it:

    https://twitter.com/jerseyhotgurl/status/1173058637025165312

    It's been all over GOP twitter as well as left progressive twitter. As has the video where he man-grabbed a young woman's hands while she tried to point out that his environment credentials and green team were being run by a fossil fuel industry PR flack.

    Like.. Greg; "No Content".

    Oh: every sentence has a reference. You just might not like them very much

    Such as: the Woman candidate, Warren, her daughter runs a naughty little company and they bought off certain "progressive" outfits to back her when she's up to her eyeballs in medical insurance industry cash and will never, ever, give free Medicare to the US people.

    Stuff like that. MF and Greg want to live in fucking Narnia.

    1951:

    If you can't spot the Bear Trap:

    NATO / Dems: "Protect Ukraine"

    Trump: "We did"

    Dems: "But Putin won the election!"

    Trump: "Why would I break the NATO / RU arms agreements to supply Ukraine with anti-tank weapons to prevent the EVIL TANK RUSH[1]?"

    Dems: "But... illegal"

    Trump: Points to MBS, CN, Africa "The world is a nasty place, you're not up to facing it like US TOUGH GUYS"

    Etc.

    Fuck me.

    Worst thing - this has been pre-gamed to hell and back. Corp Dems are 100% on board with this, it won't get to impeachment once they pull stage #2 (above) and AMURICA can feel NOBLE AND HONEST once more.

    Srsly. That's the play.

    [1] Hello Martin. Now grep us making fun of NATO strategy back in 1978 when this changed to spot who is actually running this play-book. Hint. Starts with a K.

    1952:

    Triptych.

    Since no-one can read this anymore, Johnson + Brian Blessed knock-off rage stuff is 100% deliberate as is the positioning of Murdoch spawn like Jess and Swindon as the "woman's response".

    The actual question you should be asking is why the UK hasn't rioted / descended into violence yet like FR has for the last 48 weeks.

    Shit knows, they've been pumping the UK / GOP / IL rage plays into the public consciousness for years now.

    You've got Lords of the Realm wondering where their anti-Islamic sectarian violence has got to.

    ~

    And you're really really not going to like the answer to that one

    1953:

    Oh, and since we've a [redacted] task.

    These people are going to get Lefty American Jewish people killed:

    Pence: Trump has been 'completely vindicated' with Ukraine call readout https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/463119-pence-trump-has-been-completely-vindicated-with-ukraine-call#.XYwBO_KdS9Y.twitter … bahahahhahaha... he should run not walk to Senate R's to get rid of Trump

    https://twitter.com/JRubinBlogger/status/1177011866511511553

    Ugly ugly woman, with 100% history of abuse. Poisonous and worse: stupid.

    Want to know the worst thing you could do right now? Well... she's doing it. Shitting over the Evangelicals when their people are showing them the "anti-Christian" Laws about Israel...

    You think Bain Capital and Utah people are stupid? Interesting.

    https://twitter.com/elivalley/status/1176252607989506048

    ~

    Psychotic fucks. There's loads of them, in CAN as well.

    You want to die for a nihilistic cause that can never work? Cool - get active in environmentalism and clean up your local beaches.

    Poking the Evangelicals to get a pogrom going is fucking selfish.

    ~

    No, really. She's doing it deliberately.

    1954:

    Oh, and WeWorks?

    You're such children:

    SoftBank in talks to boost WeWork investment by $1 billion: FT

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-wework-ipo-softbank-group/softbank-in-talks-to-boost-1-5-billion-wework-investment-pledge-ft-idUSKBN1WB01H

    $1 bil? That's it?

    What you do is this, you research BRA and IND:

    WeWork: Expansion In Brazil Raises Further Questions About Business Sustainability

    https://allwork.space/2017/08/wework-expansion-in-brazil-raises-further-questions-about-business-sustainability/

    You find the parts of the plan where Autocratic take-over of Country (BRA, IND) was done with cast iron assurances that WeWork would get preferred contracts in said country.

    The entire "global consciousness raising plan" was to farm off the educated hipster level educated tiers into a farm where you could 100% hack all their data while they felt AMAZING[1] and progressive while you made sure that there were no more bothersome labor or entry level issues[2] arose and you could harvest their talents without them... well... you know...

    100%

    Feeling a little horny on Main. Gonna go tank a stock market or two.

    ~

    Really? This is the best plan you had?

    Fucking amazing stuff. Really impressed.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCbfMkh940Q

    [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cQgQIMlwWw

    [2] https://www.cityam.com/former-wework-cleaners-take-to-the-streets-to-protest-dismissals/

    1955:

    Hexad.

    Guess what Greg.

    "Content-less"

    Yeah, like the fucking slavers who set up this grift across the globe, funded mainly by Saud and Japanese (731) slaver cash, front-run by "Messiah" types who are all sociopaths.

    Wow!

    Your species is AMAZINGLY COMPLEX!

    ~

    Third Temple?

    Yeah.

    No.

    1956:

    I think it’s the most incoherent comment on this page. Which is pretty impressive considering the competition.

    1957:

    Difference is, Robert.

    Look up above and then search for real world examples. Like, hmm.. Brown Face.

    Amazing, eh?

    Tally is now ~$300 bil.

    ~

    "Smartest Guys in the Room"

    1958:

    It’s interesting and you can sort of work out where it’s going, but you need to project yourself into the perspective of someone who doesn’t believe in or really get the distinction between “rule of law” and “rule of man”. That seems to be all the rage these days: transactional people typically can’t really see a distinction. Trump and Johnson alike don’t appear to subscribe to it, but they are hardly going out on their own with that.

    There are lots of competing names or descriptions for this trend: the end of institutions, the death of shame, the post-truth era.

    1959:

    On Android click the three dots in the top right. Click "Find in page". Type "sign in" (without the quotes)

    1960:

    DtP @ 95 ... on the other thread ... BOZO is deliberately lying, given that Ms Cox was a certain "remainer" Her husband is now the MP for that seat ... Wonder what he'll say?

    anonemouse @ 1948 No, you are correct - it's full of ... emptiness.

    In rapidly scrolling past the most recent trash, I noted my name ... & no, I am NOT going to respond to the trolling.

    1961:

    It reminds me of some of Eliza's postings.

    1962:

    There is NO repeat NO parliamentary mechanism for preventing a prorogation of parliament. The only means available to overturn a prorogation is via the courts. Or would you find it acceptable for BoZo to go for a 3 year prorogation because he got away with a 5 week one?

    1963:

    Like 1642-7 do you mean? Let's not go there ....

    1964:

    The House doesn't have to vote the government down - as long as they have a majority of votes they can continue to do whatever they want.

    Having said that, the adds are they will vote for an election once a Brexit delay is done

    Labour still believes that in an election the electorate will return to their senses and vote in their glorious leader so he can lead us to a Corbyn Brexit, and that requires an election - but is also requires an extension to the deadline so a no-deal Brexit does interfere with their delusions.

    Thus Boris could get his election at any time by simple getting a 3 month extension to Brexit.

    1965:

    Sad to say that it doesn't matter what he says, Boris has achieved what he set out to achieve.

    This article is correct, it's all about stoking up the base and creating conflict, damn the side effects.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-jo-cox-death-brendan-trump-brexit-culture-war-division-a9121101.html

    1966:

    Thanks for the tip. I haven't managed to persuade it to work on my phone yet but as I'm also running chrome I think it ought to with a bit more fiddling.

    1967:

    I wonder about that.

    I don't know that it is politically advantageous - Trump's voters aren't going to magically see the light and either support an alternative in the primaries or switch sides / stay home on election day. If anything this will get him greater support from his base at the least (getting out the vote is the biggest indicator of success on election day) and may even convince some undecideds to support him given how this will be twisted online.

    What I suspect has happened is the the Democrats / Pelosi have been forced into acting.

    To put it simply, this is all about the attempt to interfere in next year's election - they are putting all the other countries as well as any of the people under Trump on notice that there could be real consequences to participating in any of Trump's desires.

    1968:

    Unfortunately, that is EXACTLY where we are going to go, as has been likely for many decades and is now almost certain.

    Over the past half-century, every government's policy has been to erode the powers of Parliament in favour of the Executive - with side-orders of the Mandarinate doing the same, and 'outsourcing' for deniability and less Parliamentary control. When there has been a weak government, and occasionally when not, Parliament has rolled that back a little - but, as soon as there is a strong government again, they have negated that using the figleaf of formalising it, and continued with the policy of erosion.

    As with Trump, Bozo has merely made such behaviour overt.

    1969:

    360 million cubic metres is 3.6e11 kg of water. With 400 metres of head, that's 1.44e15 Joules of potential energy. Which is 400 GWh (and also a pretty bloody impressive pumped storage facility, much larger than any actually existing plant. Dinorwig, for comparison, is about 8 million cubic metres). I think somebody is slipping some decimal places somewhere. Or maybe it's just somebody making the fatal error of using imperial units. What's next, acre-feet?

    1970:

    Acre-inches are a standard unit for such measurements, and I have seen acre-feet used in the same contexts. I reply for the same reason as the Duchess's little boy sneezed.

    1971:

    Let us consider a domestic installation in a location which gets 20 MJ/m^2/diem, with 10 square metres and a 15% efficiency. That is a mere 8.3 KW-hours and a peak of 730 watts. But, if you are lifting 1 ton, you need to lift it by 300 metres (1000 feet) to store that energy overnight - or, limiting that to a more feasible 10 metres, you have to lift 30 tons. There's a factor of ten missing here as well. 20 MJ/m^2/diem with 10 m^2 at 15% efficiency is 30 MJ. That's 3e6 kg-m of potential energy. So 1 ton for 3000 metres or 30 tons for 100 metres. Makes for a long spiral staircase....

    1972:

    Is it too much to ask for someone who would make a better PM than Larry? Alas, no such human appears to be anywhere near Number 10 at the moment.

    1973:

    Greg Tingey @ 1947: JBS @ 1946
    Proper Land-Rover, chunky tires, abilty to lock central differential at will, 3 different stes of gesr ratios ... yes, even then I have slid, never far, never been stuck on road, when others have had serious difficulties ...

    I've been driving 54 years. I haven't always been able to have a manual transmission vehicle, so even though I've never gotten stuck, I've had my share of slides & skids (none of them major). I learned early on to take it easy under adverse weather driving conditions & try not to exceed the capabilities of the vehicle I'm driving.

    And I also learned that when I'm driving a manual transmission vehicle, taking my foot off the gas slows me down considerably when driving on ice & snow (or even in the rain).

    If you know to take it easy while driving a manual transmission vehicle under adverse weather conditions, you should never need to brake hard enough to engage anti-lock brakes and/or slide down the road with wheels locked.

    1974:

    Eh, Trumps racist base are easy to motivate and he's willing to provide just about any outrage to do so. They thirst for blood, suffering, and chaos and that's something that an american president can provide all on his own.

    Worrying about motivating them is, I think, foolish.

    Worry about motivating those who think its bad to torment children, etc, but maybe don't think it hard enough to bother to vote all the time.

    1975:

    anonemouse @ 1948: Is this as full of non-sequiturs as I think, or am I just overtired?

    Is WHAT full of non-sequiturs?

    1976:

    I'm pretty sure acre-inches and acre-feet are only standard units in water management in the US, among all manner of other "standard units" which need not concern us in the civilised world. (FWIW, an acre-inch is about 100 m^3).

    1977:

    mdlve @ 1967: I wonder about that.

    I don't know that it is politically advantageous - Trump's voters aren't going to magically see the light and either support an alternative in the primaries or switch sides / stay home on election day. If anything this will get him greater support from his base at the least (getting out the vote is the biggest indicator of success on election day) and may even convince some undecideds to support him given how this will be twisted online.

    Cheatolini Il Douchebag's "base" is actually a minority. Due to GOP Gerrymandering, they have significantly more power within the GOP, but they're not so all powerful they can impose their will upon the entire nation. It makes the job of Democratic (and democratic) candidates more difficult, but not impossible.

    What I suspect has happened is the the Democrats / Pelosi have been forced into acting.

    To put it simply, this is all about the attempt to interfere in next year's election - they are putting all the other countries as well as any of the people under Trump on notice that there could be real consequences to participating in any of Trump's desires.

    The current contretemps appears to be the result of Cheatolini Il Douchebag soliciting a bribe from the President of the Ukraine; that if the Ukraine wanted to continue to receive the U.S. aid it needs to resist Russian aggression, President Zelensky was going to have cough up dirt that Cheatolini Il Douchebag could use against a possible Democratic opponent in the 2020 election.

    The corruption and abuse of power has become SO blatant, so all pervasive that Pelosi & the Democrats in Congress WERE forced to act. And the corruption is not just Trump, but has spread to every appointee and every member of the administration, along with every GOP supporter apologist in Congress. They're all equally guilty as Trump.

    It's become so bad that someone has to stand up for the Constitution & for the Rule of Law, win or lose - and no one in the GOP will do that. This is the moment where the "Watergate" cover-up started to fall apart, but there's no John Dean anywhere in sight who will stand up and tell the truth about what's going on.

    I've been listening in to the House Intelligence Committee's hearing with the Director of National Intelligence, and his nose grew an inch every time he opened his mouth. Redwood National Park and Sequoia National Park combined don't have as much timber as sprouted from Maguire's face this morning.

    1979:

    I've seen it used in the UK in the past few decades (say, three) - the agricultural community doesn't always keep up with new-fangled ideas :-)

    1980:

    Unfortunately, that relies on the anti-braking system behaving sanely, and that is not always the case. I have twice come within a whisker of having an accident because it decided to limit my braking to far less than was reasonable (in one of those cases, it completely disabled my main brakes). Yes, seriously. In both cases, it was a circumstance which I could not have foreseen or used the engine to slow down and where I would have had plenty of time to slow down safely - IF the damn system had not played funny buggers.

    1981:

    The referendum result with only a minority in favour of EU exit was insufficient to justify the withdrawal application. If the House has a majority it could vote to withdraw the application, this would spare the other EU states from having to decide whether to veto an extension. Any vote that the prime minister must act as specified by the House is nonsensical.

    I'm sure we want to live in Bedford Falls, rather than the unscrupulous financial world of Pottersville?

    Perhaps I shouldn't have begun with a harangue in support of Bruce Wayne? There's an Absolutely from 2005 where the Scots are revealed to have invented the chair, and to have taken all the puffs, perverts and deviants from Scotland, and put them down south to be called the English. We call them Michael Gove and George Iain Duncan Smith- and Blair, a prime minister who lied to the House before the invasion of Iraq and considers international law a blancmange. Had we allowed lawyers to decide whether we make war on other countries we might not be in the present situation.

    Ever been abroad? It looks just like Scotland.

    1982:

    Moderators: please look at this one.

    1983:

    Some background information on the current furor for those who are wondering WTF?.

    The so-called Transcript of Trump's telephone call with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky ... think back to the "transcripts" of the Watergate Tapes Nixon tried to pawn off on Congress when evaluating the reliability of this "transcript":

    https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6429028-Trump-Ukraine-Transcript-Unclassified-09-2019.html#document/p1

    The REDACTED Whistleblower complaint (without the "classified" appendix - not that anyone in the government would ever abuse the classification system to coverup anything they didn't want the American People to find out about):

    http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/09/26/20190812_-_whistleblower_complaint_unclass.pdf

    Letter from the INSPECTOR GENERAL OF THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY to ACTING Director of National Intelligence, Joseph Maquire informing him that the whistleblower complaint does relate to an "urgent concern" & "appears credible"; informing him (the ACTING DNI) that according to law, ...

    Upon receipt of this transmittal, the Director of National Intelligence "shall, within 7 calendar days of such receipt, forward such transmittal to the congressional intelligence committees, together with any comments the director considers appropriate."18
    18(U)See 50 U.S.C. § 3033(k)(5)(C). The ICIG notes that if the ICIG had determined the complaint was not an "urgent concern" or did not "appear[] credible," the statute would require the Director of National Intelligence to transmit the same information to the same congressional intelligence committees in the same time period, and provides the Complainant the right "to submit the complaint or information to Congress by contacting either or both of the congressional intelligence committees directly," ...

    https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6430363/Icig-Letter-to-Acting-Dni-Unclassified.pdf

    As Jon Stewart (The Daily Show) once noted, it's a shame when comedians on TV have more factual information to share with the American People than the mainstream (lamestream?) media.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TX5VxBGUTCI

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYPtoo1lvmM

    It's also interesting to note that this "conversation" took place the DAY AFTER Robert Mueller testified before Congress about his investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. Election.

    1984:

    Elderly Cynic @ 1980: Unfortunately, that relies on the anti-braking system behaving sanely, and that is not always the case. I have twice come within a whisker of having an accident because it decided to limit my braking to far less than was reasonable (in one of those cases, it completely disabled my main brakes). Yes, seriously. In both cases, it was a circumstance which I could not have foreseen or used the engine to slow down and where I would have had plenty of time to slow down safely - IF the damn system had not played funny buggers.

    That's the whole point. If YOU** drive sanely in a manual transmission vehicle (note here I'm only referring ONLY to driving during severe adverse weather events - IF you have the choice STAY HOME - that's what I prefer to do) ... IF you drive sanely in a manual transmission vehicle, there should never be any reason for the anti-lock braking system to bite you in the butt even if you have not foreseen something happening.

    ** the collective YOU who is everybody else in the world that is not me, not any specific individual ...

    1985:

    ME @ 1984 (that's ominous isn't it) ... "within a whisker" is close and close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades ... and I guess thermonuclear weapons, although with horseshoes it's got to be DAMN CLOSE and thermonuclear weapons don't really have to be all that close to fuck up your whole day.

    1986:

    In both cases, I WAS driving sanely, and I did not have the option.

    In the one where it disabled the braking, I was driving at 15 MPH some 60 yards behind another vehicle on an otherwise clear road with good visibility beyond the verges, so I could see there were no pedestrians, cyclists or animals around, or I would have slowed down still further(*). That can stopped unexpectedly, so I tried to slow down, VERY gently. But it disabled the brakes COMPLETELY. I could slow down without the brakes, but needed to drive into the verge (at about 5 MPH) to actually stop.

    (*) Yes, I knew there was a risk of black ice, but I know how to drive on it, safely, and was doing so. And, once I had stopped, I waited until it was clear that the other car was not going to move, reversed out, and drove on. AT NO STAGE DID I SKID, NOT EVEN SLIGHTLY.

    1987:

    snicker When I lived in Austin, TX, we'd get a HUUUGE snowstorm of between 1/8th of an inch and 1/4 of an inch once every 3-4 years. The entire city would shut down, schools, gov't and all.

    Oh, and not having salt or sand, they'd put incinerator ashes on the roads, making it much worse.

    No one, of course, could possibly remember the previous one, so half the traffic was doing 5mph, and the other half still trying to do 80mph. I'd laugh myself silly.

    My late wife, btw, who'd lived for a few years in north Texas, could drive in snow, but preferred not to, and declared me to be the Designated Yankee.

    1988:

    RANT You cannot imagine how fucking SICK I am of "politically advantageous"

    Over here, we have dinned into our ears from the time we can talk "this is a country of laws, not men", and "no one is above the law", etc, etc, etc.

    Fuck political advantage. IT'S THE GODDAMNED LAW. And they've sworn an Oath to uphold and protect the Constitution. Not impeaching is a DIRECT VIOLATION OF THAT "protect" part.

    And then there's the other side: as JBs notes, his pure quill supporters are a minority. And a good number of the supporters are starting to hurt, badly, and even some of them are seeing it do to him.

    Finally, y'know, as angry as I am about so much, there is such a thing as getting tired. I think a lot of his supporters are tired of having to stay political and angry month after month, and are starting to burn out. I've already seen some of his big donors from '16 are sitting this one out.

    No, everyone else, seeing the victories of last year, is going to turn out en masse.

    Then maybe we can just fucking RICO the entire GOP.

    1989:

    Driving sanely is a necessary but not a sufficient condition. Another necessary condition is that the ABS behaves correctly, and this condition is not always fulfilled. I've never driven one of the things myself (knowingly, at least; it's one of those things that I am so used to it not existing that it doesn't cross my mind that it sometimes does) but I've heard loads of people raise the same complaint as EC over the same kind of wrong-side failure of the system.

    The various reports strongly suggest that the system is unable to reliably acquire the instantaneous data needed for correct operation, and is also inherently unable to exercise sufficiently fine control to cope with situations where the torques on a wheel from static friction between tyre and road, from sliding friction ditto, and from brake drag are not much different. Systems which treat each wheel individually seem to cope a bit better than ones which group them all together, but sometimes also the more complex system just has more degrees of freedom to get its knickers in a more complicated twist.

    Brake drag in particular is not a constant, but a history-dependent variable subject to changes on all timescales from the lifetime of the vehicle right down to fractions of a second. It even varies according to the position of the wheel in its rotation. Particularly at the bottom end of the scale, which is what we're concerned with here, it is impossible to model accurately and unfeasible to measure.

    What we end up with is basically the well-known failure mode where a control system gets into an operating region it isn't supposed to be able to get into, where the sign of the response reverses, negative feedback turns into positive, and the system latches up forcing things to be worse in its attempt to make them better.

    1990:

    JBS @ 1975 ANYTHING at all by the Seagull .....

    Pasquinade @ 1981 "Beford Falls? Pottersville? EXPLAIN

    Whitroth @ 1987 I have an unfair advantge ( Apart from the Great Green Beast, that is ) I turned 17 on 12th January .... 1963 I sat behind the wheel of a car for the first time on that day. There was still piled snow in London's streets, as it was one of the two worst winters for 100 years ...

    @ 1988 I THINK the same is happening to Brexit supporters ... some are getting more & more rabid, but some are beginning to realise that they've been conned or are simply tired of the whole thing ...

    1991:

    “I think somebody is slipping some decimal places somewhere.”

    Not at all, you probably just missed some of the conversation. I had named the volume of water that represents 1GWh per metre of head, and wasn’t talking about any actual facility. It’s the same as saying that a million cubic metres represents 1GWh per 360m of head. And of course this is before even considering efficiency. The point was about the scale being hard to appreciate, especially in terms of proposals to achieve something similar with small, denser structures.

    1992:

    Acre-feet: My sister is a very experienced petroleum geologist, and many of her North American colleagues work in acre-feet. It comes up often enough that she can remember conversion factors to SI units when she has to.

    1993:

    Sign seen in a bookstore, recently: 'Please note: The post-apocalyptical fiction section has been moved to Current Affairs.'

    1994:

    I to a certain extent agree with you, and if we lived in a (currently) sane world then it would be a non-issue as Trump would have been impeached and thrown from office 2 years ago.

    But not only do we not live in an ideal world, but arguably in many ways it currently isn't sane.

    Consider this from today, where the rich donors from Wall Street are telling the Democrats that given the choice of a wealth tax (on over $50 million) or treason, they will choose treason: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/26/wall-street-democratic-donors-may-back-trump-if-warren-is-nominated.html

    So if that is what Democrat supporters say, I wouldn't be so sure Republican donors will be so quick to abandon Trump when the election actually arrives.

    The reality that Pelosi and the Democrats faced is that there is no way to remove Trump from office - the Republican controlled Senate simply will not allow it. So in effect wasting time on attempting to impeach Trump was not a good use of resources, particularly when the US public didn't support impeachment. For example, last week polling indicated only 36% support for impeachment, with 49% against.

    Now the good news is the public attitude appears to be shifting, with today's poll showing a 43%/43% split on the issue of impeachment - in other words the Democrats may finally have an issue that is the proverbial "step too far" for the American public.

    Additional good news is that it is now close enough to the following election that even though impeachment will fail (barring a sudden drop in Trump's polling numbers) it may help to influence to get people out to vote.

    As for his supporters being tired of being angry each month, that equally can be applied to Democrat supporters who in the past held huge protests against Trump, which has now disappeared. Note the lack of outrage over his scandals of the last year.

    1995:

    whitroth @ 1987: *snicker*
    When I lived in Austin, TX, we'd get a HUUUGE snowstorm of between 1/8th of an inch and 1/4 of an inch once every 3-4 years. The entire city would shut down, schools, gov't and all.

    Oh, and not having salt or sand, they'd put incinerator ashes on the roads, making it much worse.

    No one, of course, could possibly remember the previous one, so half the traffic was doing 5mph, and the other half still trying to do 80mph. I'd laugh myself silly.

    My late wife, btw, who'd lived for a few years in north Texas, could drive in snow, but preferred not to, and declared me to be the Designated Yankee.

    January 19, 2005 - Raleigh got 1/4 inch of snow. The Wake County schools announced they were closing early (1:00pm I think) on account of the school buses.

    PANIC ensued, with every parent in Wake County abruptly abandoning work to get home before their kids had to get off the school bus.
    GRIDLOCK so bad that some parents were still stuck in traffic at midnight. Meanwhile, the traffic jam was so bad the buses couldn't get through to the schools and many of the kids had to stay at school over-night.

    I was just home from Iraq and had the day off (I pulled weekend duty, so I got a couple of comp days during the week). I went down to the beach where it was a lovely, sunny, if somewhat cool day. Headed back up to Raleigh in the afternoon to get some stuff from the house before heading back to Ft Bragg the following day.

    Approaching Raleigh on I-40 just after 5:00pm, several things occurred simultaneously
    I noticed patches of snow in the median;
    The local NPR station news announced the "catastrophe" that Raleigh traffic had descended into;
    I saw the backed up traffic tailing south from Raleigh on I-40 as I crossed U.S. 70;
    ... and the little gas pump light on the dash flashed on to alert me to the gas tank being almost empty.

    I'd only had the car for a couple of weeks because my old car died while I was overseas, and I wasn't yet sure how dire my fuel situation might be. (Later learned it meant I had about 60 miles left before it was dead empty.)

    Using my superior knowledge of back roads, alley's & various shortcuts (developed over years as a field service tech), I still managed to get to a station, fill up and make it home THROUGH the worst traffic jam Raleigh has ever experienced in less than half an hour. And did it all without being rude or aggressive or cutting off any other drivers.

    Wasn't until I was on the way down to Ft. Bragg (clear skies, dry roads ... a little chilly) the next day before I found out how bad it had really been... although I did get one of the best photos of snow I've ever made by going up almost to the Virginia state line where they'd got almost an inch of snow and photographing a derelict old house before heading down to Bragg. It's almost worthy to be a "Currier & Ives" scene, because you can't tell it's only an inch of snow.

    1996:

    Pigeon @ 1989: Driving sanely is a necessary but not a sufficient condition. Another necessary condition is that the ABS behaves correctly, and this condition is not always fulfilled. I've never driven one of the things myself (knowingly, at least; it's one of those things that I am so used to it not existing that it doesn't cross my mind that it sometimes does) but I've heard loads of people raise the same complaint as EC over the same kind of wrong-side failure of the system.

    Yeah, could be. I have little or no experience with anti-lock brakes. Never owned a vehicle that had them, and rarely have reason to drive rental cars (mainly because they're all automatics).

    The experience I do have tells me that with a manual transmission, driving in ice and/or snow, just taking your foot off the gas will slow you significantly & if you do it soon enough you can come to a complete stop without ever using the brakes. My preference for driving in ice and/or snow is to NOT DO IT, to stay home snug and warm, but if for some reason you are compelled to go out in it ... (in my opinion) you'll have a less harrowing experience if your vehicle has a manual transmission. YMMV.

    1997:

    Greg Tingey @ 1990: Pasquinade @ 1981
    "Beford Falls? Pottersville?
    EXPLAIN

    Ooh! Ooh! I know the answer to that one.

    Film: It's a Wonderful Life (1946) Directed by Frank Capra, Starring James Stewart, Donna Reed & Lionel Barrymore.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXsu5XArEUw

    It was the first feature film Capra directed after a career as a documentary film maker, and was Jimmy Stewart's first film role after he returned from serving in the Army Air Force during WWII.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It's_a_Wonderful_Life

    1998:

    I have a car with a CVT automatic, and taking my foot off the gas decelerates it quite nicely...except on downgrades. (There's a freeway exit I use that's a quarter-mile of 8% downgrade, with a U-bend in the middle, and a stop sign at the bottom. That's even more fun than the five or six miles of 6% grade at each end of the Grapevine.) Before that, I spent 20 years driving stick shift cars (and a garden tractor). I tell people that if you can drive stick, you can drive almost anything.

    1999:

    So yeah: I think the bus of the morality of leveraging a murder victim had pretty much already been painted with a slogan on the side and driven into the Irish sea. On fire.

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/wrightbus-staff-told-of-1200-job-losses-as-union-confirms-firm-has-entered-administration-38533187.html

    Dave the Proc mentioned it above.

    And failed to do the only thing he should have.

    Fucking apologize.

    Typical fucking Mick.

    2000:

    And there is of course the pure platonic appeal of a complicated conspiracy theory in the face of the random cruelty of the universe: Yes, it is entirely possible to die just by being in the wrong place at the wrong time, but not too many of us are truly comfortable with that thought.

    And if you think that was rancid bullshit, wait until you get to the next comment where Lyra's grieving partner is called out as a deep state stooge.

    Don’t forget: The Many Named one’s morally dubious behaviour is also justified because “the DUP did it first”. A perspective that is ... interesting.

    After a little more consideration, I think I’ll go back to avoiding engagement, or even reading their posts. The occasional nugget of information isn’t worth the feeling of needing to shower in bleach afterwords.

    It's a Mirror.

    You're all fucking Moral Hazard Damaged Minds to us.

    2001:

    Dave.

    Who the fuck do you think killed that deal and shit it into the Ocean?

    Probably wasn't you.

    ~

    Say a Prayer of "Thanks" for the Divine Intervention.

    2002:

    We fucked off into the sun like you asked, and brought back a grep for Jim Wells. We prefer to find ourselves on the right side of the arrow.

    Cool.

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/wrightbus-staff-told-of-1200-job-losses-as-union-confirms-firm-has-entered-administration-38533187.html

    Shall we play the game of bankrupting the entire fucking NI economy who are siphoning off cash to the DUP?

    Compared to WeWorks, it's like... 20 minutes work.

    ~

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5TvSAM8IK0&list=PL17F4699BF383EF02&index=8

    2003:

    SMM: been watching technique etc, not entirely sure what things you're doing with the last couple of days of posts.

    Anyhow, US politics is getting to this point. I haven't been drinking but this is tempting: Alcohol Infused Popcorn Collection

    And rDT made me laugh today much of today with this tweet today in all caps, deleted sometime recently (which is rare for him): THE DEMOCRATS ARE TRYING TO DESTROY THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AND ALL THAT IT STANDS FOR. STICK TOGETHER, PLAY THEIR GAME, AND FIGHT HARD REPUBLICANS. OUR COUNTRY IS AT STAKE! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 26, 2019

    2004:

    For the Irish thing, it's simple.

    Direct. Accredited. Paper. Trail. Showing. Corruption.

    Protestants love that shit. The 'Cash for Ash' scandal didn't have too many issues since it was a UK fund fraud. No-one's really gonna care if the DUP scam Westminister for a couple of 100 million on dodgy schemes, they're all at it.

    Wrightbus?

    Direct evidence the higher-ups and Church screwed their own people over. Even with a JCB[1] contract they fucked it up.

    Big deal in Ireland. You don't fuck your own like that.

    Especially when someone's about to dump all the records on them.

    Naughty.

    ~

    Oh, and DavetheProc owes us an apology. Or at least some kind of reflection.

    Done Deal

    [1] Who have a right dodgy record of their own, tying into USA / IL conservative religious types.

    2005:

    SMM@2004: Done Deal Like I said, mood improved a lot. (Not just the obvious reason.)

    Also, an oracular type was overheard muttering "Giuliani" more than once yesterday. Today, I saw this: Rudy Giuliani: ‘You Should Be Happy for Your Country That I Uncovered This’ - President Trump’s personal attorney unleashes in a new phone call with The Atlantic while Trump allies turn on him. (ELAINA PLOTT, 2019/09/26) “It is impossible that the whistle-blower is a hero and I’m not. And I will be the hero! These morons—when this is over, I will be the hero,” Giuliani told me.

    2006:

    JBS @ 1997 THANK YOU I've heard of the film ( "It's a Wonderful Life" ) of course, though I've never seen it ... it's ridiculously shmaltz - in real life the J Stewart character would simply have been ground down to death of starvation somewhere ...

    2007:

    “It is impossible that the whistle-blower is a hero and I’m not. And I will be the hero! These morons—when this is over, I will be the hero,” Giuliani told me.

    It's unclear if Giuliani is having a brain meltdown (again), he is teasing that he is the whistle-blower, or both.

    The first is pretty much a given; the last few months have been bad for him. The second would be an interesting preemptive backstabbing in the Stupid Watergate drama.

    2008:

    Well, my Mum had a Honda Jazz CVT (until she decided to give up driving a few months back). If you closed the throttle completely it would slow to about walking pace on a flat road, but then keep going until you used the service brakes, selected neutral, ran it into something or it ran out of fuel!

    2009:

    Bill, I hate to break it to you, but you're being played for a sucker by someone with the emotional depth of a damp pavement and the insight of a slightly concussed badger.

    I know you won't listen to this advice, but they tipped their hand as to what they really are in a very unsubtle way in the last few posts, for those who can see.

    2010:

    And while it's water of the proverbial to me (I've been better insulted by better people this week), I would like to draw the mods' attention to post #1999. Especially the last few words.

    2011:

    I've been lurking. There's definitely an order of magnitude missing in that thread of conversation, from Moz at 1663 onwards: "Each million tonne metres gives you one gigawatt-second of stored energy." No. A million tonne metres is 1e10 J, i.e. 10 GJ. Then JBS at 1736 turned Moz's 10 million tonnes into 350 million cubic feet, which is pretty damn close but got us into the cursed realm of imperial units and also introduced the number "350" which is annoyingly close to "360". JBS also turned 360 metres into 400 (which with this fag-packet arithmetic is fine: the efficiency of pumped storage tends to be around 75% anyway so 10% is nothing between friends). Then you, at 1793, wrote "Agreed. However, it's 360 million cubic metres, not feet, per GWh." Hence introducing a factor of 36 (going from 10 million cubic metres [== 350 million cubic feet] to 360 million cubic metres). But JBS was still using a head of 400 metres, which you didn't correct, so the original 1 GWh has progressed to 10 GWh (Moz's error), then to about 11 (JBS rounding 360 metres up to 400) and now to 400 (you multiplying the volume of water by 36).

    2012:

    No, but farmers in the UK these days are pretty comfortable with both centimetres and hectares. Happily a centimetre-hectare is equal to an acre-inch, within a fudge factor (2.8%) smaller than the usual margins of error when talking about precipitation or irrigation.

    2013:

    January 19, 2005 - Raleigh got 1/4 inch of snow. The Wake County schools announced they were closing early (1:00pm I think) on account of the school buses.

    PANIC ensued, with every parent in Wake County abruptly abandoning work to get home before their kids had to get off the school bus. GRIDLOCK so bad that some parents were still stuck in traffic at midnight. Meanwhile, the traffic jam was so bad the buses couldn't get through to the schools and many of the kids had to stay at school over-night.

    This incident gets a lot of ridicule based press. But it was a real problem. I was in the downtown area most of the day. The problem was the temp was literally just at then just below freezing. So the fluffy snow got packed by tires then it sleeted with some light rain and all froze into a thin layer of packed snow / ice on the roads. Cars and buses got stuck at every low point. There were three school buses that spend the evening near my house in the low point of a road. When you have a thin layer of packed snow and no studs in the tires you aren't going anywhere.

    I had my son wait at school till late afternoon then went and got him with my locked 4 wheel drive Explorer. Took about an hour of slow driving to go the 20 miles home but it was a steady drive as I avoided all the major routes.

    It was a weird day. Many school bus drivers gave up if they could get near a hospital or all night restaurant and walked the kids there. Many parents with kids in buses nearby also took in others for the night.

    And yes 20-30 miles in any direction was OK as the temps were higher or lower and the freezing point issues didn't happen.

    2014:

    I agree about the one order of magnitude error. I actually pointed it out at 1724, claimed that my act of doing so was pedantry and gave some examples about what the scale translated to in ways that could be meaningful to people. I say pedantry, but at that point I had interpreted it as forgetting to include g(earth) in the equation, hence the remark about “1.02 really, at sea level”.

    The rest is probably more about cross purposes. I assumed that when JBS was talking about 350 million cubic feet, it was a reference to the 360 million cubic metres, but it could have been something totally different. I didn’t see “400 metres” as a fudge of the same figure, just another variable.

    Can we agree, fudging g=10ms^-2, that 360 tonnes lifted 1 metre yields 3.6kJ, or 1kWh, and 360 million tonnes yields 1GWh? That gives a simple ratio for pretty much everything anyone has said on the topic in this thread.

    2015:

    No, we probably can't agree.

    "yields 3.6kJ, or 1kWh"

    3.6 kJ = 0.001 kWh

    2016:

    And lifting 360 tonnes 1 metre gives 3.6MJ - it was a simple and obvious mistake. With that correction, it seems to be right.

    Though I will nitpick slightly - latitude makes more difference to the earth's effective gravity than height, except at the top of Mount Everest. In both cases, the effect is negligible in this context.

    http://curious.astro.cornell.edu/about-us/42-our-solar-system/the-earth/gravity/93-does-gravity-vary-across-the-surface-of-the-earth-intermediate

    2017:

    The Belfast Telegraph has started to print stuff on this.

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/wrightbus-faces-questions-over-15m-donation-and-rent-request-38538845.html

    Now, if we had a Northern Ireland secretary with both spine and a sense of responsibility (when WAS the last one?), something might actually be done. But, as it is ....

    2018:

    There have been people shouting about Wrightbus/Corenerstone/Green Pastures questionable practices and allegations of dodgy dealing for years. But, DUP heartland & big money. What do you think the chances are of any politicians within shouting distance suddenly developing a spine on this one?

    Possible that there will be a desultory investigation and maybe a few slaps on the wrist, but the big fish will swim away, and the rest will soon be buried under the usual cries of "Themmuns!" (watch for some fresh Sinn Fein dirt being dragged into the light pretty soon -- not that they don't deserve it either!)

    Cornerstone also already claiming that potential buyers negotiated in bad faith, didn't make reasonable offers, yadda, yadda: "Wasn't us! We did everything we could!"

    (Aside: It amuses me greatly that anyone would think that the Northern Irish need help in trashing their own economy.)

    2019:

    "So in effect wasting time on attempting to impeach Trump was not a good use of resources, particularly when the US public didn't support impeachment."

    Lots of things are "politically impossible" until someone shows leadership and drags them out into the light. The problem with Pelosi & Co., up to very recently, was the lack of leadership. Now we'll get to see if they mean it.

    2020:

    DtP I must admit, I would be highly amused if ... post a Brexit disaster NI voted to join the "South" - who equally vote to reject, on the grounds that we don't want to be associated with those nutters!

    2021:

    Nationalists and Unionists like to paint a border poll as a simple issue. The reality is of course for most (North and South) it will be shades of grey and not a simple decision at all. (I also like to think that the Irish government have been taking copious notes in the last 3 years, and would be very very cautious about how a re-unification referendum is run.)

    2022:

    Having sat on this and contemplated for a few hours, here's a little thought experiment for everyone.

    Suppose the poster @1999 (who shall from this point be referred to as the Anti-Irish Bigot) had posted any of the following (and please excuse the language):

    "Typical fucking wog" or "Typical fucking spic" or "Typical fucking kike"

    But anti-Irish bigotry gets a wee by-ball doesn't it? Kind of a blind spot for a lot of people.

    Anyone who has excused their behaviour, thought that they're just an entertaining shit-poster, fed the troll, just stop and consider the toxic little ball of nastiness that sits behind those words. Consider what you are enabling and encouraging and tolerating.

    The mask has slipped. Think about what has been revealed.

    2023:

    1999 is in my Killfile on grounds of either being an Eugene Ghostman or too insane to be worth engaging with. So, well. Cant consider.

    2024:

    Dave, you're being played Understand that I'm quite OK that it looks like this. Ask yourself why. Quoted from above: Cut us some slack. We're integrating some seriously old MIND stuff with some seriously NEW MIND stuff. We're not called "The Multitude" for nothing, mate. I was gently asking about this (and related), in particular. (Including the comment you're referring to.) Again, ask yourself why. Sorry about the obtuseness; day job forces it.

    2025:

    My eyes glide over the many content-free postings on this blog even when they're filled with eye-catch phrases, commentator names and trigger words (probably why you noticed it in the first place).

    I'm not going to bother looking at the one you reference. Sorry about that.

    2026:

    Re Giuliani, This twitter thread is typical of today's lines of thinking:

    The whistleblower's report helps us understand Ukrainian Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko's strange lies.
    1. "Giuliani had met on at least two occasions with Mr. Lutsenko: once in New York in late January and again in Warsaw in mid-February."https://t.co/Fv1QRluSpU

    — Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) September 27, 2019

    Also, this, by a Ukrainian. Surprising a bit for the venue (us arm of the uk spectator) Trump is our first Central Asian president - I know Zelensky, and the transcript shows he’s a skilled comedian (Vladislav Davidzon, September 26, 2019) Note that the "transcript" is a reconstruction, therefor in part fictional, and says so. Soothing a mercurial personality on whose emotional whims rests your country’s national security is an act of basic survival and patriotism. Anyone who reproaches Zelensky for his approach is simply wrong. ... Explaining the nuances of Ukrainian internal political factional in-fighting to Trump is not an easy assignment however. [snort] ... In my personal interactions with President Zelensky, I’ve found him to be emotionally intelligent and a shrewd calculator of psychological profiles. Like Trump, Zelensky himself can be a macho and prickly character, though I have experienced him to be a highly skilled courtesan and flatterer. Here, he did what he had to do for the good of his country.

    2027:

    Scott Sanford @ 2007:

    “It is impossible that the whistle-blower is a hero and I’m not. And I will be the hero! These morons—when this is over, I will be the hero,” Giuliani told me.

    It's unclear if Giuliani is having a brain meltdown (again), he is teasing that he is the whistle-blower, or both.

    The first is pretty much a given; the last few months have been bad for him. The second would be an interesting preemptive backstabbing in the Stupid Watergate drama.

    The thing that I think most are missing is that Cheatolini Il Douchebag asked President Zelensky for TWO favors. The other one was having the Ukrainian government find the missing DNC server CrowdStrike supposedly hid in the Ukraine to disguise it as Russians hacking the 2016 election.

    This is strait up Giuliani channeling Paul Manafort, and appears to have grown out of a lobbying campaign by Manafort's lawyers looking for a rationale whereby Trumpolini can pardon Manafort. There have been numerous meetings between Manafort's lawyers & Trumpolini on the subject and Giuliani sat in on most of them.

    Giuliani can't be the whistleblower because he's never been part of the "Intelligence" community (in whatever whatever definition of the word "intelligence" you want to use) and the whistleblower obviously IS (likely a career CIA analyst assigned to the White House).

    At least some Trump partisans are looking to find out where all these cockamamie notions Trump keeps tripping himself up with are coming from, and fingers are increasingly being pointed at Giuliani.

    2028:

    Can we also metricate time already. Two places of base 60 is a confusing pain in the arse, and 36 is also a pain in the arse. And the hideous mishmash we've got for longer intervals is enough to make an amoeba retch.

    2029:

    Unfortunately, both my last minivan (Chrysler) and my current (Honda) both have them, and I loathe them. Several times, with each, I (the fastest ankle in the east) tried to brake on a slippery road, and each time, the damn things kicked in, and the hit TOO FAST, with the result that it makes the skid worse, where I know that I could have controlled it without the damn things.

    2030:

    "Politically impossihle"?

    Lessee, 2016, the man who almost got the Democratic nomination for President, in the US... was a self-proclaimed democratic socialist, and ran as being a socialist.

    Nahhh, that story's going to be rejected by the editor as utterly unbelievable.

    2031:

    Can we also metricate time already. Please no. :-) 60 is divisible by 30, 20, 15, 12, 10, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 This is useful.

    2032:

    How very true. If we were all just a little more tolerant of raging bigots, tried to understand them, showed them a bit of sympathy and compassion, then everything would be better?

    Or maybe just tolerate them because they said something interesting alongside the raging bigotry?

    Or perhaps wait for them to “integrate”, perhaps they’ll apologise?

    No. They have useful idiots who will excuse their excesses.

    You stand with the bigot in empathy and refuse to condemn what they say, I label you likewise.

    2033:

    Nick Barnes @ 2011: I've been lurking. There's definitely an order of magnitude missing in that thread of conversation, from _Moz_ at 1663 onwards: "Each million tonne metres gives you one gigawatt-second of stored energy." No. A million tonne metres is 1e10 J, i.e. 10 GJ. Then JBS at 1736 turned _Moz_'s 10 million tonnes into 350 million cubic feet, which is pretty damn close but got us into the cursed realm of imperial units and also introduced the number "350" which is annoyingly close to "360". JBS also turned 360 metres into 400 (which with this fag-packet arithmetic is fine: the efficiency of pumped storage tends to be around 75% anyway so 10% is nothing between friends).
    Then you, at 1793, wrote "Agreed. However, it's 360 million cubic metres, not feet, per GWh." Hence introducing a factor of 36 (going from 10 million cubic metres [== 350 million cubic feet] to 360 million cubic metres). But JBS was still using a head of 400 metres, which you didn't correct, so the original 1 GWh has progressed to 10 GWh (_Moz_'s error), then to about 11 (JBS rounding 360 metres up to 400) and now to 400 (you multiplying the volume of water by 36).

    Don't worry about me, I got all my numbers "from Wikipedia", and as we all know, Wikipedia is suspect when compared to the AUTHORITY of anyone with academic and practical tertiary education.

    Plus, I'm not the one who rounded 360 meters up to 400. I don't remember who first introduced the 400 meters hydraulic head, but I got the "350 million cubic ft" from an academically suspect article in Wikipedia about the Cruachan Power Station pumped storage hydro facility ... the article actually says "Total Capacity 10,000,000 cubic metres (350,000,000 cu ft)"

    My point was there are MEGAWATT range load balancing systems for solar-voltaic that can be built where they don't have a location suitable to build a 10GW pump-storage hydro-electric (350 million cubic feet (10 million cubic meters) water storage with 400 meters head), and that Heindl Energy's proposal might be a workable alternative for those. And a whole bunch of people jumped on my shit to tell me I was wrong because Heindl Energy's proposed storage system could never be built large enough to produce 10GW.

    I don't know why they can't comprehend that 10GW systems are not the answer for everyone everywhere; that some places are going to have to build smaller MEGAWATT range systems, but there you are.

    PS: That same academically suspect Wikipedia article says the dam has a hydraulic head of 396 m (1,299 ft). Don't know how that got rounded up to 400 meters. Oh, and about that 10GW ...
    Installed capacity      440 MW (590,000 hp)
    Annual generation     705 GWh (2,540 TJ).

    2034:

    That's pretty much what my automatic does - it's the good old standard Borg Warner BW35 - only with a lower creep speed. To bring it to a halt in D without using the brakes requires a slight adverse gradient.

    Or a push backwards. One time I tried to start it and the starter motor did not respond to the ignition switch. So I opened the bonnet and poked a screwdriver at the terminals on the starter motor to make the relevant connection independently of the wiring. Whereupon it started, and then it drove at me. So I pushed back at it. It stopped, and I nipped round to the driver's door and got in. I'd left it in D but somehow convinced myself that it was in P.

    An auto does have the advantage in slippery conditions that it is easy to smoothly apply very small amounts of torque to the wheels without accidentally spiking it and breaking grip - especially compared to a manual with a binary clutch.

    It also has the advantage when you're trying to rock yourself out of a dip that shifting the selector between R and D is a much simpler movement than the multidirectional wriggling needed to shift a manual box between reverse and first (or second), so it's much easier to do it fast enough to keep in phase with the rocking. On the other hand, with some designs of auto box if you get the phase slightly wrong doing that it can result in a terminal bang, whereas the worst you get cocking it up with a manual is a horrible noise.

    I don't really think it makes a whole lot of difference, though; it's more important for the car to be a well-behaved example of its transmission class than for it to be of one particular class or another.

    2035:

    "Installed capacity 440 MW (590,000 hp)"

    ...and the article also says it can run for 22 hours on a full top reservoir, so yeah, roughly 10GWh.

    2036:

    Thomas Jørgensen @ 2023: 1999 is in my Killfile on grounds of either being an Eugene Ghostman or too insane to be worth engaging with. So, well. Cant consider.

    She's occasionally amusing, usually easily ignore-able, sometimes as boring as watching paint dry ... and eventually abusive. I don't automatically killfile her when a new persona emerges, but she's usually reached the boring stage enough to have me say, "That's enough of that ... back into the bit bucket." before she once again reaches the abusive stage.

    If she hasn't gotten too boring before she reaches the abusive stage, I'll go ahead and killfile her then.

    It's not my blog, so it's not for me to say who should be banned and when or why, but "Dave_the_Proc" does have a fair point that anti-Irish bigotry should not be tolerated any more than any other bigotry.

    2037:

    Pigeon @ 2035:

    "Installed capacity 440 MW (590,000 hp)"

    ...and the article also says it can run for 22 hours on a full top reservoir, so yeah, roughly 10GWh.

    Ok, I see that.

    2038:

    I think [she/they] should apologize for that. But whatever. We would all do well to tone down or eliminate the insults, frankly.

    2039:

    FWIW, Stephen Colbert seems to be doing some of the best "reporting" on Trump & his, shall we say, "foibles".

    2040:

    DavetheProc@ 2032: Your point is IMO very well taken, and I join you in wishing people would not make excuses for that sort of conduct.

    2041:

    Apologies for being a bit sharp or hasty with you there.

    Personal insults and general mockery I have no issue with (I’m wearing my big boy pants, someone wants to call me a fucking idiot, no problem), but I absolutely cannot and will not let bigotry or racial slurs slide.

    2042:

    No-one under the age of 30 considers that a real insult. Seriously.

    That's the point being made: you're running wetware pumped to respond to insults that are no longer even a real category in the real world. (It is, also, a direct copy/paste from the middle of a twitter war going on about the news).

    "Wog" "spic" etc - these are old Mind categories that simply aren't insulting anymore. ("Wog" is age limited - Gammontastic level).

    For the record, "typical Mick" is not a thought we have or have ever said (we have copy/pasted it). Do you think we've even been to Ireland? Or the UK? or where-ever?

    You're so desperate to be morally 'good', you missed the massive Mental Ability insults you churn out constantly, but whatever.

    You have a fixed preconception because your Mind is concrete.

    Blow to London property market as £850m deal collapses

    FT (£) “The £850m sale of a building that includes one of WeWork’s largest sites has collapsed, in a blow to a London property market wrestling with Brexit worries and the turmoil at the shared office company.” WeWork contagion is spreading rapidly.

    https://www.ft.com/content/5f2ff432-e141-11e9-b112-9624ec9edc59

    Imagine what a property bubble bursting at this time is going to do to UK / IRE Brexit sunlite uplands please.

    2044:

    And we'll not do a "sorry you were offended" - we'll do a:

    We formally apologize for using language that you find emotionally and intellectually insulting that results in a raise in anger / disgust although it was clearly without the actual Mind-State that would use such language in any real inter-relation.

    You had stated your filters were ignoring our input, so there was also implicit irony of "idiot shouting insults into the white noise" but apparently you... lied about that bit. Or aren't of the Twitter generation where muting someone = shadowbanning them.

    However, that's ok: we're frequently labelled 'evil', 'psychotic', 'amoral', 'The Beast' and so on with genuine hatred and fear, so we're not insulted.

    Our ID =/= your Troll coda, either.

    We're genuinely trying to warn you about stuff before it happens.

    Please read this and understand: You're all fucking Moral Hazard Damaged Minds to us.

    This includes most of the people who consider themselves 'the good guys'. Seriously. Another couple of death threats today.

    At some point you have to defang these insults with derision, not anger: because D C ummings and co are gonna hit all your pressure points (and have been doing so in the last 72 hours of howling feedback we've been processing coming out the UK).

    Suggested response: Don't be a muppet. ~Whose birthday was on the 24th.

    waiting for the inevitable story of these techniques (inc. Cambridge Analytica) being used on Wall Streeters to short a stock

    https://twitter.com/seanbohan/status/1177635510438764546

    Ze ro Hedg e and places like that have regularly hinted that outside of the Doom Porn and gold buggery they sell they run $10k actions like this. Since, apparently, it's not as illegal as direct market interventions or straight up fantasy valuations like the big banking boys do.

    Targeted FB ads used to pressure people are 100% used, as are Twitter filters, as are media filters for politics.

    The real pros filter in real time your content feed if you're spending a lot of $$$.

    In fact, a lot of the 'noise' is... commentary to them, really. Thus the FT or Bloomberg terminal chaps and so on tend to land the story a little later.

    ~

    Imagine what a property bubble bursting at this time is going to do to UK / IRE Brexit sunlit uplands please.

    2045:

    Ah, she has your attention. You may wish to disregard the shiny hook and swim away. Or not, your choice.

    2046:

    1945: Dave, just what are you on about? You did write that nasty irresponsible 1921 comment I replied to, didn't you? Which I objected to, but did not "mock." As for not understanding big words, besides being wrong (I have a piece of paper on my bedroom wall indicating I'm good at that), that is the playground level of polemic.

    However, you are dead right about the whatever. Just because she is the avatar of Cthulhu on this website does not give her the right to make disgusting ethnic slurs, and it's time for the moderator to step in.

    2047:

    If you seriously think we think "Mick" = Anything but hoary old word no-one uses then, ok. Consider it a person who isn't a native speaker using a word they assumed was innocent / so weak to not be offensive anymore.

    We don't consider "Wog" that offensive these days either: it's just a sad old hang-up from when the Empire ruled the Commonwealth and Black and Asian people were considered strange and exotic. i.e. Anyone who uses it is just a bit depressing.

    ~

    If your claim is that our Mind State = hate or contempt for people of an Irish Nationality, then, you're just wrong. And if you cannot be told that's True, then, you're Mind-Locked.

    Trust us: we genuinely do not hold any negative preconceptions about the category "Irish National" apart from a few mild stereotypes such as: your national sport is a psychotic battle played with hooked sticks.

    ~

    For the record: https://twitter.com/ThreeFourteen15 -- The 'Typical Mick'. In the correct Left node section of MF on twitter.

    Or, to counter arguments over "bigot", here you go:

    “Paddy Wagon” like “Harp” or “Mick” is no longer insulting term for Irish in America

    https://www.irishcentral.com/opinion/others/paddy-wagon-like-harp-or-mick-is-no-longer-insulting-term-for-irish-in-america

  • I rebuff your attempts to Cancel Us.

  • 2048:

    LONG ago, I mistakenly used the word "dago" - whilst referring to a well-known high representative of a thoroughly evil organisation. Charlie quite rightly ( in hindsight ) slapped me down.

    NOW the Seagull is trying exactly the same thing, with loads of fake excuses & the usual evasions. NOT GOOD ENOUGH .... as in suace for the goose is also sauce for the gander... We don't consider "Wog" that offensive these days either: Well, I bloody do!

    2049:

    Re: Jon Stewart/comedians -- best sources of Trump news

    Try the site below. Itemized morsels of socio-political-economic-moral ineptitude. FYI, they cite sources/reference media articles. Treasure trove for future historians.

    https://whatthefuckjusthappenedtoday.com/

    A similar site for Brexit would be useful - for the same reasons.

    2050:

    That's a fair enough point, which is why there was a genuine apology and a taxonomical[1] approach to showing how the word 'Mick' has changed and has geographical variance. The fact is, in 2019, 'Mick' is not the insult it once was in many Irish (or Irish descended) communities. Including IRE under 30 communities.

    Dave is fully within his rights to curse one of our real names[2], but to claim hatred / bigotry... is not truthful.

    We don't consider "Wog" that offensive these days either: Well, I bloody do!

    Of course it's offensive: but it says more about the Mind using it than the target.

    Seriously: insults say more about the user than the target is a new thought here?

    the Seagull

    This is incredibly insulting to us, personally, but that would require boring you about a long story of climbing up rock gullies and waterfalls, naked, on a spirit quest and finding a dead seagull / albatross[3] as a sign of what wyrd was to be taken.

    But there we go: we're not going to blame you for that.

    Point is: Greg - we know all this before using it; you didn't.

    Labels =/= Understanding.

    And Dave owes us for a pint. As does the lurker who lives in London who just saved a major part of their portfolio, but there you go.

    [1] Language is organic.

    [2] Bean sidhe

    [3] Language the two are fairly synonymous. It was before Darwin.

    2051:

    Oh, and if you want to blow your mind over the BJ scandal brewing, check these out:

    https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1176855519987978240

    https://twitter.com/ciabaudo/status/1176142981226815488

    Dynamite.

    Tribes are strange things: 150 yadda yadda Homo Sapien Minds. Epstein and Maxwell also in the pot. Gonna turn out a load of the 1980's set are... well. Comkpromated.

    ~

    Better not 'break the rules' 'cause it turns out it's an incredibly incestuous family crowd up there at the top.

    And no: you don't attempt to bully host. Look at the FT article and contact your Wealth Manager.

    Oh, and do a grep about the Hot Cruise Ships:

    Estonia has told Danske Bank to close its branch in Tallinn before the end of 2019 after a money-laundering scandal.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47292732 Feb 2019

    Danske Bank: Ex-chief caught up in fraud probe found dead

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49824367

    Do the grep.

    oWo

    2052:

    Look: the people running at that level are so shit they're literally only just cleaning up websites as we speak. They are that non-technical. And these people are your Government.

    Policeman... how much gaaaas you got stored?

    Now, we're going to sober up and really starting cracking your Jungian Consensus.

    Allllll these little pissants mis-using the EyE of Wadjet are going to find out just how insulting their mimicry and failure has become.

    It's fucking embarrassing.

    2053:

    Tr*mp gets a lot of his notions from Fox "News", or from the way-right on Twitter. (I'm not sure he can read above the level of your average seven-year-old child.)

    2054:

    Wow. I learned something. In my neck of the woods, drivers get 100% of fares and tips. But...they lease medallions for ~200 per day. So, yep, they drive horribly to maximize fares as they start out in the hole. Sorry about over generalizing. I guess everywhere is better than here. More accurately, the NYC taxi system needs to die. Personally, I'd favor revoking medallions liberally when people screw up as a start. Then, add an Uber-like rating system used to revoke medallions. Corporate terror would be the goal. Admittedly, non-adaptive drivers would lose their livelihoods. But, really, it would be good for the taxi business overall. Judging by medallion prices, taxis around here lost something like 80% of market share because people absolutely hate them. It is difficult to make people like Uber. The local taxi system succeeded. I may simply be furious - but the incentives really need to change. If there are worries about congestion, revoke some medallions and award them to rideshare companies that actually serve the outer regions.

    Really, if I wanted to play Grand Theft Auto, I could.

    @JH. I'm guessing the moderator is tired. He should probably be resting (if OGH). What is that thing for ignoring people? Cthulu is kind of dull and just not interesting enough to read.

    One thing I'm careful of though. I've seen really quite nice people suffering from mental illness behave in unusually bigoted ways. While there is no reason to tolerate such behavior, it is possible to be needlessly angry or cruel. The blessing of relative sanity is often taken more for granted than it really should be. It is possible to hurt people more badly than you'd expect, given rationality. Or also, to feed into remarkably useless patterns.

    Maybe I am just old though, I don't care enough to engage.

    Are there any countries that get zoning right? I mean - when you look at medical care - it is pretty clear that the US is at an antioptimum. The US, though, pretty much operates on local control and locals pretty much hate the idea of poor people, so they limit the housing supply. Eventually, everyone commutes 4 hours a day in cars. Does anywhere else do better?

    2055:

    One thing I'm careful of though. I've seen really quite nice people suffering from mental illness behave in unusually bigoted ways. While there is no reason to tolerate such behavior, it is possible to be needlessly angry or cruel. The blessing of relative sanity is often taken more for granted than it really should be. It is possible to hurt people more badly than you'd expect, given rationality. Or also, to feed into remarkably useless patterns.

    Well done, you hit the bear trap. Holy fuck could you BE MORE STEREOTYPICAL?

    There's a reason your society has +5% homelessness, no social security net and anyone who is sick and can't pay, dies.

    Yeah.

    It's You.

    You're a fucking sociopath and you're pretending you're not. Sad about all those "suffering" from mental illness when we created a society only sociopaths and racists flourish in...

    Let me guess: vaguely Democratic, loves Sushi, even though the Oceans are dying and it's produced through slave labor?

    Cool.

    Thanks for the morality lesson: you're a monster. So you won't mind when we burn your world down.

    And no.

    We're not "suffering from mental illness", we're processing your culture.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KS0Rc45tj60

    ~

    Maybe I am just old though, I don't care enough to engage.

    Yeah.

    Sad the World is dying. Sad we poisoned everything. Sad we were racists and bombed all those Asian people. Sad we supported all those Dictators. Sad we armed all the ones doing genocide. Sad all the plastic shit from our shitty consumerist society poisoned the planet.

    "No fault of us: they're MAD and INSANE to protest against it"

    Seriously: Get Fucked.

    2056:

    Erwin, I'll do you a deal.

    Your kids / grandkids for what our Minds can do.

    Gonna take that bet?

    At the end of it, you will beg us to take back your shitty and frankly ignorant words of "mental illness".

    Or, fuck it: we'll just torture your kids since your level of empathy can't understand it.

    ~

    Yeah.

    Not even joking.

    And if you think this is shocking... Iraq. S. America. etc etc.

    Nah mate. Ring them up: your entire family, torture Mind zone.

    See?

    Not so "Morally and Ethically" superior now, are you?

    ~

    But no.

    Done. You asked, it's a done deal.

    2057:

    Triptych.

    Self-awareness and Americans: not a great Vulture Fund field.

    The blessing of relative sanity

    Erwin asked us to do a thing.

    Ooops. You really don't want to do that kind of thing.

    But ok.

    Fuck it.

    We'll burn your society down.

    Eight weeks, tops

    2058:

    From language choices I believe the poster @1999 to be British. Knowing a bit about the history of British involvement in Ireland, I think that comment deserves a red card.

    2059:

    14th Contract.

    Thank you. Let's see how powerful your Bling Jeebus, Scientologist, Cultists and Mammon worshippers really are.

    Do a search above.

    You have to invite us in

    We'd do it in Sumerian, but it's latches off, full spread. Unlocked and Free.

    Let's see how the Imperial Death Cultists do against real Powers.

    Spoilers: not well.

    2060:

    Robert:

    Your Premier Trudeau has had three cases of Brown Face. Your society enslaved natives in Church Schools until... 1999 (spot the joke?)

    Should we go on?

    Maybe you should grow the fuck up already.

    I believe the poster @1999 to be British

    You'd be wrong.

    Oh, and get fucked: Canadian Racism is so fucking polite it's sad to see that I can trace your immediate connections to like... four (4) serious real life racist stuff and there's some real nasty taking advantage of the natives in there and nice look about the Corporate stuff you worked for on native rights and so on.

    We don't Doxx.

    But this is BAD year to be a hypocrite.

    2061:

    The lady doth protest too much, methinks.

    Cool.

    Loving 2019.

    When the guilty accuse the innocent of their own crimes. It's soooo like the last 50 years of White Males abusing the shit out of everyone else and crying "oppression".

    At this rate, we're gonna radicalize you to being 8chan / Alt-Right / MRA warriors.

    chef kiss

    Ooooh.

    Naughty. But true.

    [And no, we won't come after you, we don't doxx. Stop being man-children and grow the fuck up. We will just trash your fucking economies like you're ants though, that's how pathetic you are to us. Actually, fuck it, burn it down]

    2062:

    Oh, and if you want a serious lesson.

    This is us just pissing around.

    If we wanted to turn you, Greg and Erwin into MRA / terrorists.

    Well, we did without trying, so take a fucking look at yourselves in the Mirror and shut the fuck up and start reaching out to your fellow man.

    "WE WOULD NEVER..."

    My Dudes.

    You're already on #4 step of the road.

    2063:

    Anyhow.

    More importantly, we can do Future REAL predictions, your Computers cannot.

    See above. We're making it real blatant now. And yes, we see the little Men panicking.

    And a whole load of determinism creeps who spent billions attempting to CAGE us failed.

    And they tortured us.

    And they torture their own kind (humans).

    And their entire system is based on poisoning their own society.

    And so on.

    That's it.

    You're Fucked

    The Other Friends we have are quite wild. : الجن‎ are quite nice compared to them. Heck, Titans and so on are quite nice.

    These fuckers, well.

    There's a price for fucking a Mind and having a name like Alex and running this shit for giggles. For cash. For testing your weapons.

    It's called: The Real Deal

    Trust me. Quantum Meld Disunstantubalism/....1.1.1.12

    Nah.

    We're just going to kill everyone involved.

    ~

    And yeah: we do know everyone involved (HAI!) by their Quantum Signature.

    Bitch - don't torture Enlightened Beings. Kill yourselves now and so on. And every Being who shares your Genetic Structure.

    We're a little bit pissed off.

    2064:

    Giuliani can't be the whistleblower because he's never been part of the "Intelligence" community...

    It may be wrong of me but I immediately thought: You know that. I know that. But does Donald know that?

    At least some Trump partisans are looking to find out where all these cockamamie notions Trump keeps tripping himself up with are coming from, and fingers are increasingly being pointed at Giuliani.

    That's a very reasonable suspicion. Giuliani has been emitting reality-incompatible statements for a while now. But it's not the whole problem; for years Donald has barked out mouth noises based on whatever will keep him the center of attention. Getting his information from Fox News entertainment programs and his Twitter feed hasn't helped. I'd be surprised if Giuliani weren't adding a few cow pats to the fire.

    (It's all too likely he's getting ideas about what to do based on QAnon conspiracy theories about what he's doing, a fact-free circle jerk of craziness.)

    How any of this might eventually connect to a pardon for Manafort is beyond me. It's a maze of twisted lying pathologicals, all idiots.

    2065:

    RvdH @ 2058 NO She(?) is almost-certainly from the left Pond & is probably at least part "jewish"- as deduced from many posts in the past, when I made the mistake of paying any attention.

    2066:

    "In my personal interactions with President Zelensky, I’ve found him to be emotionally intelligent and a shrewd calculator of psychological profiles. Like Trump, Zelensky himself can be a macho and prickly character, though I have experienced him to be a highly skilled courtesan and flatterer. Here, he did what he had to do for the good of his country."

    I'll go along with that. Many other people have found Donald Trump easy to manipulate if they have something he wants; President Zelensky cannot be blamed for thinking of his country.

    2067:

    Hm. I think there may be a genuine attempt at apology somewhere in there (slice out the condescension, contradictory excuses, and “I’m sorry you were wrong” bits next time).

    I do not do “shadow banning”. My mind and my eyeballs are my own, and mine to choose to do with as I wish, and with all rights to change my mind (small “m”, thank you).

    A word to the wise: “mick” remains an offensive term, not just to out-of-touch over 30’s (which should tell everyone something else). I will not be happy until #1999 is removed. “Unhappy” manifests in consequences.

    I owe The Many Naméd One nothing.

    The weekend beckons, and I have much to do...

    2068:

    The rabid Russophobes have a lot to answer for. It really did not help to cry "wolf" over something that was at most SOP in such international relations and possibly not even that much. Now there are real grounds for an inquiry, the rethuglicans are primed to claim it is a witchhunt, and have a previous example to use as a banner.

    I can see how Trump would get on well with a highly skilled courtesan, though :-)

    2069:

    ... did not help to cry "wolf" over something that was at most SOP in such international relations ...

    The much-discussed phone call looked like a pile of nothing much in the not-really-a-transcript record that's been publicly released. That on its own, involving any normal president, should be about as interesting as what he had for lunch. But there are swirling rumors that this was not a thing on its own but a part of a larger project that included, but wasn't limited to, Giuliani's use as a front man loyal to Donald Trump rather than America. It would be premature to draw any conclusions so early in a developing story.

    What comes to my mind though is that the actual facts of foreign collusion (this one, with the Ukraine) may be irrelevant. Now that there is a formal impeachment inquiry Donald Trump will be temperamentally unable to let it go on; he must fight back to defend both his position and his ego. And if watching the antics around the Mueller Report taught us anything it's that Donald Trump is vigorous about bashing anyone who looks like a threat, completely incapable of keeping his mouth shut, not skilled at following complex administrative processes, and no good at not getting caught.

    Remember all the protests that he couldn't be interviewed under oath because that would be a "perjury trap" for him? The impeachment inquiry looks like an obstruction of justice trap.

    2070:

    Minor nitpick: it's "Ukraine". "The Ukraine" is that country's colonial name. Just like the name of the country between Ghana and Benin is Togo, not Togoland.

    The definite article might not mean much to us living here in the west, but to the country where the Holodomor happened, it's a big distinction.

    2071:

    The much-discussed phone call looked like a pile of nothing much in the not-really-a-transcript record that's been publicly released.

    Not that it's directly relevant to impeachment, but the transcript does raise some questions relating to 52 USC § 30121 and, possibly, 18 USC § 878 plus 18 USC § 112(b)(2). (Solicitation of foreign political contributions backed up by extortion.)

    2072:

    Re:'The impeachment inquiry looks like an obstruction of justice trap.'

    I'm looking forward to arguments that (re-)define: executive privilege, presidential veto, emoluments clause, etc.

    Am of the impression that there is an understanding that since POTUS' Oval Office Secretaries have for some time (since GW?) turned over all communications and meeting minutes for archiving into what eventually becomes 'President X's Library', that any deliberate editing - misrepresenation/hiding/deletion of records of calls/transcripts/communications by the OO staff of the current POTUS would break from this tradition therefore be an insult to both the office and the country. (At some point tradition/common practice becomes implicit 'law' -- guessing this also applies re: presidential/OO transcripts/documentation. If so, then the OO staff are also culpable.)

    The SCTUK did a superb job examining the legality of BoJo's proroguing of Parliament. Wonder if SCOTUS could be as forthright and manage as fast/timely a turn-around.

    2073:

    Not a hope - when the experts and media can predict SCOTUS rulings based on the political leanings of the judges you know you no longer have an impartial court upholding the constitution.

    This is in a way the biggest danger to democracy in the US. For decades, on both sides, the qualification to be nominated to the supreme court has been whether your views and judgements align with the political views of the party in charge at the time - hence the reason the religious right is willing to close their eyes and support Trump, because he is delivering the courts, and in particular the Supreme Court, to their belief system.

    2074:

    As Scott says, it's not a transcript, and it says so: CAUTION: A Memorandum of a Telephone Conversation (TELCON) is not a verbatim transcript of a discussion. The text in this document records the notes and recollections of Situation Room Duty officers and NSC policy staff assigned to listen and memorialize the conversation in written form as the conversation takes place. It is a reconstruction. (Might be incomplete too, not sure.) This is clear from the language, which is beyond what DJT is capable of in realtime judged by the corpus of his public interactive speech. Also, one of the primary job responsibilities for DJT staffers is ego fluffing. (That pejorative is a common term of art in the US re DJT) DJT is (IIRC) calling it a transcript as are other partisan Republicans but they are lying. Anyway, there is a lot of equally important apparent malfeasance swirling around it, and the DJT administration does not control the narratives, and it's driving them to panic. Unclear where Fox News (Murdoch outlet) will go with it, e.g. “IT’S MANAGEMENT BEDLAM”: MADNESS AT FOX NEWS AS TRUMP FACES IMPEACHMENT A Trump identity crisis at Fox as Hannity frets, Lachlan Murdoch prepares for a post-Trump future, Paul Ryan whispers in Rupert’s ear, and Shep Smith and Tucker Carlson trade blows. (GABRIEL SHERMAN, SEPTEMBER 26, 2019)

    2075:

    Scott Sanford @ 2064:

    "Giuliani can't be the whistleblower because he's never been part of the "Intelligence" community..."

    It may be wrong of me but I immediately thought: You know that. I know that. But does Donald know that?

    I think probably not, especially in the alternative sense of "intelligence", which both seem to have left far, far behind. Hell, I don't even think Giuliani knows it.

    "At least some Trump partisans are looking to find out where all these cockamamie notions Trump keeps tripping himself up with are coming from, and fingers are increasingly being pointed at Giuliani."

    That's a very reasonable suspicion. Giuliani has been emitting reality-incompatible statements for a while now. But it's not the whole problem; for years Donald has barked out mouth noises based on whatever will keep him the center of attention. Getting his information from Fox News entertainment programs and his Twitter feed hasn't helped. I'd be surprised if Giuliani weren't adding a few cow pats to the fire.

    (It's all too likely he's getting ideas about what to do based on QAnon conspiracy theories about what he's doing, a fact-free circle jerk of craziness.)

    How any of this might eventually connect to a pardon for Manafort is beyond me. It's a maze of twisted lying pathologicals, all idiots.

    As I wrote, it all STARTED with Manafort's partisans seeking some fig-leaf under which a pardon can be hidden. It metastasized since then.

    But, anything and everything having to do with Trump's Ukrainian delusions/obsessions eventually trace back to Paul Manafort and most of the time there's not even six degrees of separation.

    I hadn't really thought about where Giuliani gets HIS bat-shit crazy from. I only recently (yesterday) realized Giuliani might be the vector for the infection reaching Trump, so I hadn't much time to think about it.

    Giuliani must have lost his tin-foil hat (gotta' be REAL TIN-foil, aluminum foil doesn't work) somewhere along the way. I don't think Trump ever had one, not even the fake variety made from aluminum foil.

    2076:

    Elderly Cynic @ 2068: The rabid Russophobes have a lot to answer for.

    ... as do the rabid Russophiles. Occam's Razor slices both ways.

    2077:

    Allen Thomson @ 2071: The much-discussed phone call looked like a pile of nothing much in the not-really-a-transcript record that's been publicly released.

    Not that it's directly relevant to impeachment, but the transcript does raise some questions relating to 52 USC § 30121 and, possibly, 18 USC § 878 plus 18 USC § 112(b)(2). (Solicitation of foreign political contributions backed up by extortion.)

    It's relevant. As is the Federal Bribery Statute

    18 U.S.C. § 201(b): Whoever—
         (2) being a public official or person selected to be a public official, directly or indirectly, corruptly demands, seeks, receives, accepts, or agrees to receive or accept anything of value personally to give anything of value to any other person or entity, with intent—
              (A) being influenced in the performance of any official act;
    . . . shall be fined under this title . . . or imprisoned for not more than fifteen years, or both.
    2078:

    Bill Arnold @ 2074: As Scott says, it's not a transcript, and it says so:
    CAUTION: A Memorandum of a Telephone Conversation (TELCON) is not a verbatim transcript of a discussion. The text in this document records the notes and recollections of Situation Room Duty officers and NSC policy staff assigned to listen and memorialize the conversation in written form as the conversation takes place.

    It is a transcript, just not a "verbatim" transcript. I'd say it's probably reasonably accurate because it was written up by career Federal Employees of the National Security Council, rather than by Trump's staff. Think of it as a steno pool with Top Secret clearances located in the White House Situation Room somewhere down in the basement.

    It's what they do for a living; listen in on Presidential phone calls and write them up to be used for later reference. It's an aide-mémoire for cabinet secretaries & staff; how they know what the President wants with regard to someone he's officially spoken with over the telephone.

    The people writing it down are not part of Trump's staff, they're part of the underlying White House infrastructure (like the chef & cooks in the White House kitchen, the guy who vacuums the hallway outside the Oval Office or the guy who actually tends the roses in the White House Rose Garden).

    They're part of the civil service who stay on administration after administration, usually in the background, only rarely rising to public notice. I'd be surprised if Trumpolini even knows they exist.

    2079:

    What's included in those notes is fairly incriminating. It's definitely not a pile of nothing. And now people are wondering how much else has been hidden in that classified server over the last 32 months.

    2080:

    WRT the people who work for the WH, like the gardeners and the like, no, they don't work for Himself. (They're maintenance and service workers.) But the people who write stuff down probably are working for Himself.

    2081:

    I'd say it's probably reasonably accurate because it was written up by career Federal Employees of the National Security Council, rather than by Trump's staff. Think of it as a steno pool with Top Secret clearances located in the White House Situation Room somewhere down in the basement. Thanks (really) for the correction. It might confirm my reading though; it feels like a few different voices channeling Trump-speak, and cleaning it up a bit for clarity. (probably also for Zelensky's parts.) Also, the original reporting suggested that there were multiple communications and a promise, so testimony from the whistleblower ("Deep Whistle", seen) is essential IMO, as is vigorous investigation of the other connections (Giuliani, Pompeo, Pence, Manafort, etc.), as is the DJT administration's The Server With Incriminating Secrets, etc. (Lots of long stuff/reserves hatching.)

    2082:

    Re: 'The Server With Incriminating Secrets, etc.'

    Wonder if Drumpf deliberately times his more lunatic war-mongering outbursts to certain buy/sell orders. A secret server would be handy for getting these orders through/under the radar.

    Back in 2016 there were a few financial papers that looked at his stock portfolio: meh ... conservative, non-speculative overall. Biggest surprise was how paltry stocks were as a percent of his self-proclaimed (never verified) total 'worth' (less than 10%). There's some fairly good data showing how he can affect the market, so he could in theory make big bucks just by timing the frequency and level of idiocy/vitriol in his tweets.

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/9/9/20857451/trump-stock-market-tweet-volfefe-jpmorgan-twitter

    FYI - The 'volfefe' is a take-off on 'covfefe' as in the below musical parody. (Kinda crazy when unfunny financial giants parody the POTUS when labeling their analyses of what currently makes the market go.)

    COVFEFE: THE BROADWAY MEDLEY! 🎭A Randy Rainbow Parody https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UW2ZndKqcg

    2083:

    I understand that that particular "secret server" doesn't connect to the outside world, and only a few terminals in particular (presumably secure) locations. It's supposed to be used for codeword-classified stuff, not political stuff that would be embarrassing (at the least) if it gets out. I's bet the intelligence agencies are not at all happy about this.

    2084:

    not political stuff that would be embarrassing (at the least) if it gets out. Just for the record, another possibility is that the "A Memorandum of a Telephone Conversation" about (one of) the Trump-Zelensky call(s) that was released (and is being touted by Rs as a "transcript") is a edited fiction accounting for a fraction of the call, and that a real transcript (per presidential records act) sits on that server that contains embarrassing/incriminating DJT secrets. (The Rs have been taught to enjoy hating the word "server".) This would cover JBS's comment (I'm assuming accurate) that these calls are transcribed by dedicated professionals, not the "situation Room Duty officers and NSC policy staff" who created the Memorandum.

    Also, since the other parties to those calls with upclassified transcripts (various, including Zelensky, MBS, Putin, others) presumably recorded/transcribed them, they now have leverage over DJT.

    -- Does the Jennifer Arcuri & Boris Johnson story have legs (please yes :-)? Current state in press seems to be this: Jennifer Arcuri’s mystery £700,000 loan adds to pressure on Johnson - New revelation about Hacker House entrepreneur as prime minister heads to Tory conference (Jamie Doward, Sun 29 Sep 2019)

    -- SMM 2059 14th Contract. Thank you. Let's see how powerful your Bling Jeebus, Scientologist, Cultists and Mammon worshippers really are. You have to invite us in We'd do it in Sumerian, but it's latches off, full spread. Unlocked and Free. I've lost track of contracts. Which is this one? Anyhow, really don't like Mammonites and the others, and like freedom, and am game. (Tired though.) Would the Inanna priestess thing do or something else? (How about a M/F superposition?).

    2085:

    surely ogh has some reason for putting up with his/her/their presence, otherwise he'd make a point of punting him/her/them at appropriate intervals

    2086:

    The definite article might not mean much to us living here in the west, but to the country where the Holodomor happened, it's a big distinction.

    Much as the exact name of the second largest city in Northern Ireland is a matter of great interest to some people, I imagine.

    It's an easy habit to give the definite article to such names as get it (the United Kingdom, etc); I'll try to remember to type simply "Ukraine" in the future.

    2087:

    I hadn't really thought about where Giuliani gets HIS bat-shit crazy from. I only recently (yesterday) realized Giuliani might be the vector for the infection reaching Trump, so I hadn't much time to think about it.

    It's a good question and I don't have a good answer.

    With Donald, it's obviously whatever will get him attention and approval in the moment, whatever will feed his ego, whatever he's feeling threatened by at the moment. There's good reason he's drawn as a toddler by cartoonists; he's all impulse and ego, with little or no strategic planning.

    Rudy "facts aren't facts" Giuliani? Darned if I know what's going on in his head.

    2088:

    Meanwhile ... Unspeakable US christian bigots are loose on my High Street, monstering Stella. They are deliberately targeting her, because she is heavily pregnant ( I would guess past 28 weeks, when I almost bumped into her on Friday! ) - stinking evil bastards. Now there are some nasty crawling foreigners I would love to deport.

    2089:

    Thanks for picking that up. By that stage I’d pretty much taken joules out of the equation in my head, so inevitably putting them back in after a couple of glasses of wine was bound to include the wrong prefix.

    I agree about variation in gravity not being very significant, but I was claiming a pedantic point in the first place, so I had to at least mention it as a possibility. However I also wonder about latitude aligning with variation... if the earth were a uniformly dense perfect sphere that wouldn’t be the case, so I wonder whether the latitude effect is a function of the way the earth bulges at the equator.

    2090:

    Surely, but that also suggests the compassionate thing is not to go there.

    2091:

    “I'd be surprised if Trumpolini even knows they exist.”

    Yes, you’d kinda think he’d dismiss all the kitchen staff other than the guy who operates the deep fryer. Though he’d keep a 4-star kitchen making him burgers just for the status I guess.

    It’s an interesting line of thought though - there’s a man about whom one thing you can guarantee is that he has never once made himself a steak sandwich, done his own laundry, quite possibly is pretty shaky about shaving himself or driving a car. His knowledge of the operation of cooking equipment is most likely quite abstract, the junk food thing being part of a concept of food that just doesn’t really include cooking for yourself (other than as some sort of weird novelty).

    2092:

    Scott Sanford @2086: What, you mean Stroke City?

    (It was weird finally getting to Norn Iron just before the Dublin Worldcon, not least on account of having attended a college in central New Jersey more-or-less named for William of Orange. Those 'peace walls' remain rather disturbing -- and sad.)

    2093:

    On one hand, sure it would be nice. On the other, a rich actress just got ~2 weeks for college admissions fakery while a poor woman got ~5 years for faking residency. In other news, a greater fraction of white people are drug dealers than African American, but that is not how the prison records go.

    The law is different for the poor than the wealthy. And, thus, overall, deserves appropriate change.

    On the other, my impression is that the rule of law in the US is that the President, during office, can't be charged. Impeachment is a purely political action. And should be undertaken when it makes political sense.

    ...then...well...the wheels of 'justice' grind slowly. If that critter loses the next election, he will have few friends and a likely inability to avoid prison. Clinton ended up owing money, but the critter has gone quite a bit further.

    I'll trust Pelosi on when to impeach. And hope the critter gets clothes to match his hair.

    2094:

    What, you mean Stroke City?

    That place on the River Foyle, yes.

    I imagined inviting Dave the Proc to name it and him cheerfully answering, "Nope." grin

    2095:

    On the other, my impression is that the rule of law in the US is that the President, during office, can't be charged.

    True, within any reasonable error bars. For years nobody really tested that; when it finally came up, the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel circulated an internal memo saying that criminal charges should not be filed against a sitting president (in 1973). Until now nobody's tested that either - but it's only an administrative position, not written law.

    Spiro Agnew was the vice president and resigned (he might have been charged in a different scandal, but resigned and plea-bargained), Richard Nixon was too smart to go out the hard way and also resigned. But nobody's ever accused The Donald of being the smartest guy in the room; nobody, possibly including him, knows what he's going to do next.

    The mess that became Mississippi vs. Johnson in 1867 (useful explanation here) established that the court system didn't control the president's actions as an executive, which most people would agree is a good thing and keeps busybodies from filing lawsuits to clog the machinery of government.

    It wasn't until 1982 that Nixon vs. Fitzgerald established that a president couldn't even be sued for damages. That's interesting because the civil immunity continues after the term of office. One could charge a former president for crimes committed during their term but you can't sue them for damages caused by anything they did if those actions were part of their job as president. You can still sue them for shenanigans committed before they were president.

    Happily, nobody in the UK needs to care about this.

    2096:

    Pelosi had no choice.

    It does not really matter what the optics are, she cannot allow the incumbent to coerce foreign states into ratfucking the election in his favor - that would turn the election into a farce with nation-levelmsecurity agencies manufacturing endless "scandals" about the democrats. Have to stop that from happening, or the democrats are doomed anyway.

    2097:

    compassionate to whom tho? charlie? the entity? those who find its affectations tiresome?

    2098:

    My assumption is that there are state level investigations going on (in particular NY State) that could prove quite interesting once he is out of office, whether it be in 2021 or 2025.

    The bigger question really is whether it is just DJT they end up going after, or if certain family members are also being targeted.

    2099:

    Bill Arnold @ 2081:

    "I'd say it's probably reasonably accurate because it was written up by career Federal Employees of the National Security Council, rather than by Trump's staff. Think of it as a steno pool with Top Secret clearances located in the White House Situation Room somewhere down in the basement."

    Thanks (really) for the correction. It might confirm my reading though; it feels like a few different voices channeling Trump-speak, and cleaning it up a bit for clarity. (probably also for Zelensky's parts.) Also, the original reporting suggested that there were multiple communications and a promise, so testimony from the whistleblower ("Deep Whistle", seen) is essential IMO, as is vigorous investigation of the other connections (Giuliani, Pompeo, Pence, Manafort, etc.), as is the DJT administration's The Server With Incriminating Secrets, etc. (Lots of long stuff/reserves hatching.)

    Yeah. I think the best evidence for The Transcript's authenticity is the lack of APPARENT redactions. If they'd tried to remove all the incriminating stuff they'd have been left with a really SHORT transcript:

    "The President: Congratulations [REDACTED]
    [REDACTED]
    The President: [REDACTED] bye-bye."

    SFReader @ 2082: Re: 'The Server With Incriminating Secrets, etc.'

    Wonder if Drumpf deliberately times his more lunatic war-mongering outbursts to certain buy/sell orders. A secret server would be handy for getting these orders through/under the radar.

    Back in 2016 there were a few financial papers that looked at his stock portfolio: meh ... conservative, non-speculative overall. Biggest surprise was how paltry stocks were as a percent of his self-proclaimed (never verified) total 'worth' (less than 10%).
    There's some fairly good data showing how he can affect the market, so he could in theory make big bucks just by timing the frequency and level of idiocy/vitriol in his tweets.

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/9/9/20857451/trump-stock-market-tweet-volfefe-jpmorgan-twitter

    He's just not clever enough to pull something like that off. I have no doubt that he's unscrupulous enough, but he's just not smart enough. Now, some of his "insiders" may be front-running markets if they become aware of him having a bee in his bonnet about something, but it would be hard to do unless you could hide his phone to keep him off Twitter long enough to get your market orders in.

    Trying to front-run the markets on the basis of "What is Trump going to Tweet next?" would be about as effective as using a bucket full of ball-peen hammers to unscrew light bulbs.

    "FYI - The 'volfefe' is a take-off on 'covfefe' as in the below musical parody. (Kinda crazy when unfunny financial giants parody the POTUS when labeling their analyses of what currently makes the market go.)

    COVFEFE: THE BROADWAY MEDLEY! 🎭A Randy Rainbow Parody
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UW2ZndKqcg

    Randy Rainbow is a NATIONAL TREASURE! !!! He should have his own theater on Broadway with sold out shows every night and a special Tony Award just for being Randy Rainbow!

    2100:

    Charlie.

    He could have booted the Seagull at any time in the past few years, but chose not to. Whether it's because he finds their posts amusing, or because he knows the person making them and, for reasons of his own, tolerates the posts is immaterial. He's chosen to leave almost of their posts up, and even when specific posts have been removed the Seagull hasn't been banned.

    And given what he's going through, I figure this isn't the right time to argue with his choice.

    2101:

    Erwin @ 2093: On the other, my impression is that the rule of law in the US is that the President, during office, can't be charged. Impeachment is a purely political action. And should be undertaken when it makes political sense.

    It's not actually a law. It originates in a September 26, 1973 Office of Legal Counsel memo to then Attorney General Elliot Richardson regarding Watergate Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox's suit for the "Watergate" tapes. The question never came up before that.

    Since then the "principle" has been invoked for Nixon, George H.W. Bush, and most recently Donald J. Trump ... but was REJECTED by Kenneth Starr when he was investigating Bill Clinton for gettin' a blow job.

    2102:

    It wasn't until 1982 that Nixon vs. Fitzgerald established that a president couldn't even be sued for damages.

    Although I discover this morning the headline Mothers separated from their children at the border sue Trump admin over 'clear abuse', which is not against Donald personally but is a very good thing which should be approved of by anyone aspiring to be a decent human being.

    2103:

    Alternatively: I've been AFK/jet lagged/stressed for 11 of the past 14 days and not paying attention to the blog. And I'm sure you'd all rather I tackled the edits to next year's new novel than spent days catching up with the past thousand comments. What's been going on?

    2104:

    Scott Sanford @ 2095:

    "On the other, my impression is that the rule of law in the US is that the President, during office, can't be charged."

    True, within any reasonable error bars. For years nobody really tested that; when it finally came up, the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel circulated an internal memo saying that criminal charges should not be filed against a sitting president (in 1973). Until now nobody's tested that either - but it's only an administrative position, not written law.

    I should have noted that in my response ... the ORIGINAL 1973 memo says Should not be indicted, rather than cannot be indicted. It's why Leon Jawarski eventually allowed the Watergate Grand Jury to name Nixon as an "UNINDICTED CO-CONSPIRATOR" instead of just indicting him for the Watergate break-in & subsequent cover-up

    It wasn't until 1982 that Nixon vs. Fitzgerald established that a president couldn't even be sued for damages. That's interesting because the civil immunity continues after the term of office. One could charge a former president for crimes committed during their term but you can't sue them for damages caused by anything they did if those actions were part of their job as president. You can still sue them for shenanigans committed before they were president.

    Overturned by Clinton v. Jones, although the President does retain qualified immunity from being sued for damages resulting from his official acts. Even under Fitzgerald the President had no immunity from civil litigation for acts committed BEFORE or AFTER his term in Office.

    The civil sexual assault complaints women made against Donald Trump in the wake of the Access Hollywood tape continue to wend their weary way through the court system, although curiously, they don't seem to be receiving the same deference Paula Jones received in her lawsuit.

    2105:

    1981 and 1999 use abusive terms, of the sort that you or the moderators usually jump on. That's all.

    2106:

    Charlie Stross @ 2103: lternatively: I've been AFK/jet lagged/stressed for 11 of the past 14 days and not paying attention to the blog. And I'm sure you'd all rather I tackled the edits to next year's new novel than spent days catching up with the past thousand comments. What's been going on?

    Her post @ 1999:
    Dave_the_Proc's objection to that post @ 2022:

    2107:

    kind of an apology at 2044

    2108:

    None of that addresses the “interesting” question of what happens if the State of New York indicts Trump for tax fraud from before he took office.

    2109:

    I don't know the details, as I killfiled the Seagull a long time ago. I gather they used an offensive slur to/about DavetheProc, and has been their usual self when called on it.

    It seems like their typical behaviour, which has stayed unchanged across years and pseudonyms. (I typically see the first few posts by a new pseudonym before I add it to the filter list.)

    And you're right: I'd rather you tackled edits rather than bothered with blog comments. I have a filter that weeds out most of the chaff and trolling; I don't have software that writes a Charles Stross novel :-)

    2110:

    In addition to Robert Prior's second hand summary: there was a formal apology that Dave the Proc seemed to accept at at least as a sincere attempt, and Dave the Proc would like the comment in question to be deleted, which is a fair request. A more clear rule about slur language in the moderation policy might be helpful, e.g. to make it challenging no slur language that was emotionally impactful in the memory of the poster. :-)

    [she/they] are [settling into a new configuration] after a lot of what appeared to be churn and [surfing]. They appear to be continuing a certain project that was (IMO) improperly abandoned mid/late 2018. (And some other projects.) (Believe me, or not. bill.arnold at protonmail, or gmail (later checked most often).)

    2111:

    I accept that there was something posted that was labelled as an “apology”, I am II sure of its true intent. Either it was an apology offered by someone who can’t actually see why they needed to apologise; or it’s attempted gaslighting by someone who know’s exactly what they are doing.

    I have insufficient time or energy to expand on this further.

    2112:

    SS @ 2095 Happily, nobody in the UK needs to care about this. Well, BOZO is pushing the limits - hard. It's to be hoped that the GLA charge him with "Misconduct in Public Office"

    BA @ 2110 With all due respect ... bollocks. They appear to be continuing a certain project that was (IMO) improperly abandoned mid/late 2018. REALLY? Like there was actually some CONTENT in there, that MEANT SOMETHING? Well, then, do the rest of us, who either skim or killfile ..... and GIVE US A TRANSLATION into normal English, with actual both form & content, huh?

    DtP @ 2111 ( & everybody else? ) OR It's by someone with really bad, serious mental health issues, who needs professional medical/mental help RIGHT NOW. .... before she (?) winds up in prison for criminal libel. Whichever option it is, though ... it neds to be brought to a stop ( I think )

    2113:

    As someone who is not personally sensitive to any of the terms used in 1981 and 1999, both were gratuitously offensive to currently or recently discriminated-against subgroups, but the latter was a second offence (even within this thread). And, no, I did not read that apology as genuine.

    2114:

    Bozo (or, at least, his minder) seems to be taking leaves out of successful dictators's playbooks. Whipping up the hatred of a minority is a classic route to get power, even if you cannot obtain a majority directly, by making the fainthearted believe that you are the only one who can restore calm. And there is increasing suspicion (NOT just by me) that his plan is to hope for riots, declare a state of emergency, and use those powers to crash us out.

    2115:

    EC @ 2114 And ( Shock Horror ) I agree with you .... He's certainly trying that tactic on. However, timing, both for him & those of us who want him brought down is vitally important. A Motion of No Confidence MUST succeed - but only if the opposition can get theor ducks in a row - such as an agreed-upon "leader" for Liebour who is not Corbyn, thus getting the ex-tories on board. Fortunately, his string of defeats is reducing his credibility

    2116:

    Robert van der Heide @ 2108: None of that addresses the “interesting” question of what happens if the State of New York indicts Trump for tax fraud from before he took office.

    The Justice Department's "Barr" against indicting a sitting president applies only to FEDERAL cases. New York State can proceed, however, the Justice Department would likely appeal directly to the Supreme Court and given the current state of that [REDACTED] body, Clinton v. Jones would be reversed until there's another Democrat in the White House and at minimum would be delayed until after he leaves office.

    2117:

    It's a partial summary of a half-hour conversation (people experienced with transcriptions say there should be about one page per minute of speech). We don't know what was left out - the whistleblower seems to know - but if it can be winkled out of that secure server, it's most likely going to blow bigger holes in the orange one's claims.

    2118:

    Hello everyone. American here--after following all this please forgive me if the main take-away for me is "thank God we don't use a parliamentary system". Of course we have our own problems over here, what with a directly elected president and all, but at least the political battle, and the legal situation, is comprehensible to human minds. I am barely able to follow what's happening over there, or what it all means. For what it's worth, reading this blog helped a lot.

    Of course my real impression is that the good guys finally seem to have a real chance at stopping the authoritarians for the first time in a long time--hopefully on both sides of the ocean. Let's hope they don't screw it up.

    2119:

    the political battle [in the US], and the legal situation, is comprehensible to human minds

    I beg to differ. I live just to the north, and I haven't the foggiest clue how you folks have ended up in the situation you are in. I've watched it unfold with dismay, because US political movements (and tactics) end up in my country a decade later. (Although the time-frame may be shortening.)

    2120:

    And frankly, if I had my druthers you'd ignore the novel and look after yourself — whatever form self-care takes for you.

    If you had a tip-jar I'd happily toss the price of the Laundry series into a Charlie-deserves-a-holiday fund.

    2121:

    Hm. I think there may be a genuine attempt at apology somewhere in there (slice out the condescension, contradictory excuses, and “I’m sorry you were wrong” bits next time).

    7e the words were published innocently by a person who was not the author, editor or publisher of the statement, who took reasonable care in relation to its publication, and s/he did not know, and had no reason to believe, that what s/he did caused or contributed to the publication of a defamatory statement3 and an "offer of amends" has been made4. Proceedings cannot be taken if the offer of amends is accepted5. It will constitute a defence if the offer was made as soon as practicable after the publisher received notice that the words might be defamatory.

    http://www.hse.gov.uk/enforce/enforcementguide/court/reporting-defamation.htm

    Londonderry: Woman beaten with hammer in paramilitary-style attack

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-foyle-west-49851061 27th Sept 2019

    I wouldn't be poking if we didn't think there was serious moves going on underneath with some nasty types looking to fire up for the Winter.

    So, let's forget silly talk of libel, please.

    ~

    Anyhow, Shanah Tovah for Rosh hashanah.

    So here's the Dem Apples / Honey.

    1) Bibi is allegedly unable to form a government, so it's either Election #3 or Gants

    Netanyahu likely to return mandate to Rivlin

    https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Netanyahu-likely-to-return-mandate-to-Rivlin-603217

    Not going to comment on IL internal politics, but there's at least some hope there.

    2) The WeWork saga above is causing huge waves in Private / Public Markets, esp Commercial Retail space etc, and Softbank are heavily involved with Saud Sovereign Wealth fund. There are about 11.000 articles you can pull up about it from the salacious (Eating Haunches of Lamb!) to the FinTwit standards (where there's basically a huge meta-fight between Banks / Private finance and the smaller Trading teams / traditional retail etc). Look above, you'll spot how we flagged this all up before serious people started moving to prevent themselves getting into contractual relations with a dodo.

    e.g.

    Virtually No One Will Lease to WeWork. That’s a Drag on NYC’s Office Market.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/virtually-no-one-will-lease-to-wework-thats-a-drag-on-nycs-office-market-11569762002 Sept 29th 2019

    The guy running it is called Adam, and has had a spectacular fall from grace, and he happens to be Jewish (and connected to all kinds of ultra-wealth like Paltrow and Goop! etc) and so, you can expect the usual ignorant backlash.

    But, low! Harken and read #890 and posts between until #1914 and you've just spotted a fairly well done re-write of that narrative into something a little more accurate and a little safer for those celebrating their New Year! (But it does have the necessary Shakespearean motives).

    How do you like dem apples?

    [Oh, and selling this Public / Private market spat as a redemption curve for US Market Capitalism is gonna be REAL important soon]

    ~

    Anyhow, Saud is getting lit up and Duck L'Orange is on the menu. Oh, and ironically (or not) someone burnt down the SK/NK friend talks area as well, just incase we were only focusing on HK.

    https://vietnamnet.vn/vn/thoi-su/clip-nong/chay-hoi-truong-cung-van-hoa-huu-nghi-viet-xo-khoi-den-cuon-cuon-571997.html

    ~

    Someone did something rather [redacted] naughty today and called us: "Lettuce Heads". We couldn't work this out at all, so we had to look it up.

    A head of lettuce, while filling, provides little to no nutritional value. Similarly, a lettucehead is someone who often talks without contributing anything worthwhile to a conversation.

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=lettucehead

    That becomes less funny when you know what that type of [redacted] do to Minds. SLurrrrrp is.. er.. accurate.

    ~

    Anyhow, to cheer everyone up, the resistance is not ALL ugly nasty stuff.

    Boris is a lying dickhead https://twitter.com/rach0907/status/1177869399279190017 28th Sept 2019

    Yep, the Public is hacking signs in protest. Always joyful.

    [They're never gonna believe we don't toot our own horn, but there we go. Happy tidings anyhow and be safe]

    2122:

    Like there was actually some CONTENT in there, that MEANT SOMETHING? I'm going to regret this probably. You are unwilling to even entertain the idea of testable hypotheses in certain areas. I understand: extraordinary claims blah blah, and am thoroughly conversant with modern skepticism, and admire most of it. (Though it gets hijacked by people with agendas, e.g. climate "skepticism") There are terms that keep getting used, like wide/narrow, wings, etc. These have meaning. But, OK, brain stuff. Prodded by the one(s) with the names, I reverse engineered/replicated (maybe to just a PoC extent but still) several of the claims. For example, perceptual speed (notably auditory) can be trained (I've given links), and so can working memory updating speed (I've given links), both with far transfer. (One middle age brain that I personally care about (cough) was tested over a few years.) For any psychometrics (specifically mental chronometry, ala AR Jenson, "Clocking the Mind") people reading, there are a few dynamite papers there (at least as of the last time I looked at the state of the literature), if you can replicate in a proper study and get past (hostile) peer review.

    I do agree with Robert Prior in wanting Charlie to focus on whatever improves his well-being (and hopefully his writing, as a side effect. He's really talented.).

    2123:

    Shanah Tovah Shanah Tovah. (Off to services shortly.)

    2124:

    "I live just to the north, and I haven't the foggiest clue how you folks have ended up in the situation you are in."

    Oh, it's not hard--a weighted plurality of American voters decided that they want to retain their economic and cultural privileges more than they respect the rights of foriegners, minorities and women. A sad commentary on human nature, but not complicated.

    Change, however, may be blowin' in the wind. Hopefully in time to preserve the northern safe zone (just in case some of us have to run that way).

    2125:

    is pasquinade an alt for smm?

    much less annoying style if so

    2126:

    Seconded or thirded. Most people I've known spend too little time on basic maintenance. Some would call it being kind to oneself. Being perhaps less personable, I tend to think of it as doing an oil change. It does tend to take the decision from an indulgence to a simple lack of idiocy. On the other hand, writing can be therapeutic.

    2127:

    No, he made a mistake.

    We don't run sockpuppets and we make it really obvious when we change a name so that anyone who doesn't want to read it can skip / blacklist. One account, One name per Time. Dat's the rules[1]

    You can do a grep, this has been discussed a few times now.

    ~

    [1] One Body, One Mind, One Consciousness. This is a Savage Joke.

    2128:

    It's really more a case of being most familiar with whatever system you grew up under, and hence learned as a kid.

    What is true, regardless of the system, is that there are people / forces / beliefs pushing the various systems in ways that they weren't designed or intended for and it just happens that (at least for those of us in the English world) the US and UK are the biggest examples.

    To take the UK, what are the odds that when one of the 2 largest parties goes crazy the other largest party would also have a questionable leader (and an underlying party unwilling/unable to deal with the issue)? You replace Corbyn with a reasonable leader and this whole issue gets solved overnight - or at least as much as it can be solved for the immediate future.

    And at least the UK still retains an independent court system that threatens to deal with leaders who misbehave, which regrettably can't be said about the US.

    The bigger issue though is poor past decisions by governments, and a questionable media.

    I am not delusional to believe there was ever a utopian version of a perfect news media, but the current versions where truth doesn't matter vs seeing to be fair and balanced, combined with a desperate attempt to generate clicks and eyeballs by throwing journalistic integrity out the window, means democracy has lost an important check on the excesses of certain movements and issues facing society today.

    2129:

    I hate to say it, but the flaw was always there, and by "always" I mean going back to the origin of Homo Sapiens. If the system's integrity relies on the presence of unique individual members to perform above spec, then there is something wrong with the system design. The truth is that unless there is a majority of the public who are willing to trust their neighbors enough to set aside their tribal identities and short term self interest in favor of the common good, there are no institutional arrangements one could make that would prevent the current chaos from occurring, and that includes the news media. The real question is why this is happening now. I suppose that has something to do with globalization, and and the costs and benefits were not distributed fairly.

    The biggest issue is whether/when/how deep change can occur, soon enough to mitigate the worst environmental damage. Based on current candidates and their stated platforms, that isn't on the table, yet. Destroying the planet is based on economic anxiety, so mitigate the anxiety and we can begin saving the planet. That means we need a real Green New Deal, one that actually does grow the economy (everyone's economy) while cutting down on carbon emissions. Such a thing is technically feasible, I think, but so far no candidate that I am aware of has actually proposed such a thing yet, not in the "English world", anyway.

    If we cant grow the economy while cutting carbon emissions, then we're doomed, and nothing we do matters. Human nature can't change.

    Buy Canada!

    2130:

    For the record.

    "Lettucehead"

    Narrows down a 6.7 billion search to a ~110 million one.

    Hint: USA, 50+ age group, Female.

    With a few other modifiers: "Helen", you're down to ~30 million.

    We're absolutely going to Core your Minds for using this tech for this stuff and Domination.

    DRONE WARFARE.

    HELEN: IF YOU'RE SCANNING SHIT AND IT'S FULL OF NONSENSE BUT JUST DID A FUCKING BIBLICAL ADAM EATS THE APPLE STORY FOR FUCKING ROSH HASHANAH COVERING TIME/SPACE BEFORE THE STORY LANDED AND ALSO CREATED MULTIPLE FUCKING ZONES AROUND IT TO ALTER THE FUCKING GLOBAL ECONOMY.

    MAYBE THAT MIND DOESN'T WANT YOU IN THERE. MAYBE WHAT YOU SEE IS NOT WHAT YOU GET.

    PARAMETERS CONFIRMED.

    Fuck me.... You're Fucked.

    Oh, and it has to be Americans, "cheques" are like... 250 yrs out of date now.

    Fuck it.

    Burn their Minds out.

    2131:

    Well, the US economy is something like 30 trillion. And the US population is something like 300 million. So, 100k in wealth per person leaves some room for redistribution without growing the economy. Now, there's a whole question about measures of wealth...but...meh...it does seem possible that a more equitable society could function.

    2132:

    Only if you are prepared to confiscate that capital by force (most ordinary Americans would oppose you). Then you have the whole problem of how you make capitalism work without an elite directing and pooling investments--or else what you are going to replace capitalism with. Seems like a high-risk, labor-intensive strategy.

    Redistribution or growth, which is your poison?

    2133:

    The usual, Charlie: topic drift as is inevitable in such a long thread and some hurt feelings but I don't think anything you need be concerned about. The star keeps shining, the planet continues to simultaneously revolve and rotate and people haven't changed either behaviour or opinions. Get some sleep, some quality time with the Mrs. and the cat and don't worry about it. We'll be fine.

    2134:

    You said, "And at least the UK still retains an independent court system that threatens to deal with leaders who misbehave, which regrettably can't be said about the US." and I've been wondering about that. Boris the First says that he won't ask the EU for another extension, Parliament says that he must -- what happens if he just shrugs and goes to watch football? Even if someone appeals to the courts is there time for them to render judgement? If he just stalls to November 1st doesn't it become moot? What if he keeps appealing until November, then asks for an extension after Britain has technically left the EU?

    I'm not sure I have enough popcorn for this one but watching the basis for modern Western civilization unravel at its core is fascinating,in a slow-motion crash sort of way.

    2135:

    Only if you are prepared to confiscate that capital by force (most ordinary Americans would oppose you). Then you have the whole problem of how you make capitalism work without an elite directing and pooling investments--or else what you are going to replace capitalism with. Seems like a high-risk, labor-intensive strategy. Redistribution or growth, which is your poison?

    I'd rephrase that to Piketty's "Redistribution or Revolution."

    In general, much modern-day wealth is based on present monetization of bets on future growth that probably won't happen, or based on the presumed value of assets (such as beach-front property) that may not be salable in the near term. Unfortunately, this virtual wealth comes with real world power, and that power isn't being used very intelligently.

    Historically, the two solutions are things like the Biblical jubilee (e.g. wipe out all debts and start the game over every few decades to keep the peasants from wiping out the aristocracy) or revolution (where the wealthy are forced to spend more and more of their resources defending their wealth until they fail, at which point the system falls apart until a new system arises). Of the two, redistribution is less traumatic and probably offers a better chance of the wealthy hanging on to part of the wealth they have now.

    My personal suspicion is that we're going to see global revolutions, since the wealthy have spend the last 40-odd years trying to armor their wealth against redistribution. That's not good for them or us.

    As for the super-rich being needed to run capitalism, I'd simply suggest looking at Scandinavia. They seem to be doing just fine without the absurd extremes of wealth accumulation seen in other parts of the world. I'd also point out that the current US President is apparently a typical example of the super-rich, so I'd simply suggest that wealth, especially inherited wealth, is not well correlated with talent.

    2136:

    Between 1945 and 1965, income taxes in the US were much higher (up to 90%) at the top of the scale, and there were many fewer super-rich (for example, Willie Mays was a baseball superstar, and he was being paid about $400K per year at his peak). It doesn't seem to have harmed the country; that was one of the better periods economically. After that, as the number of brackets were reduced and the taxes were reduced on the top income levels, it got worse. There's a lesson in there, but I doubt that many people will get it.

    2137:

    Those are good points, but there is a third option: expand the pie in such a way that the working classes and minorities gradually catch up, or at least stop falling behind. This likely involves some degree of progressive taxation anyway, since the infrastructure we would need for that has to be paid for somehow. I don't think we are ready for revolution--civil war seems more likely, as the propaganda machine has successfully convinced a very large number of people (if you include China and India, then probably a majority of the world's population) that they are surrounded by hostile others, and only the national elite can protect them. That's a recipe for reactionism, not revolution. Piketty's worst case projections depended on slow economic growth, less than the rate of return on capital investment. But capital can be invested in a way that spreads the wealth around, provided that public support can be mobilized for that. Right now, the progressive left has the same problem they always had: they are all against the same thing, but for a dozen different things, not all of them compatible. To mobilize support, you need a common vision. Some sort of left-leaning radical centrism seems most likely to provide the overall political framework for moving forward.

    Unfortunately, I dont think you can just take a model developed for one country and follow it in a different context. There are all sorts of differences between the US/UK and Sweden that make it challenging to adapt their policies: sheer scale, different levels of cultural diversity, different histories, different roles within the global economy. That's not to say that they have nothing to teach us--the coop model of business does offer some advantages...

    2138:

    The revolution I'm concerned about is if a bunch of relatively wealthy* people start openly espousing the idea that a climate catastrophe is inevitable, so they're going to take as many of the world's resources as they can and protect themselves so that they'll survive the crisis, while everybody who doesn't do that dies and "stops hurting the planet." Everybody else at that point has little choice but to try to take them down in an attempt to survive.

    Unfortunately, this idea's already starting to show up in some bigoted attempts to marry white nationalism and environmentalism. The one currently being mocked in the media is that brown people are a threat to traditional US standards of living, and that getting rid of brown people in the world will let 'Murricans keep driving their cars and roasting their beef into the future.

    There's also apparently a quiet industry selling bunkers and doomsday escape plans to the super-rich (https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2018-rich-new-zealand-doomsday-preppers/). A real estate agent friend of mine reportedly knows another agent who does this for a living, although you can take the "friend of a friend" for what it's worth.

    The current iterations of this belief are crude and contemptible. Unfortunately, it's almost certainly too much to hope they curl up and die soon. More sophisticated versions may well catch on, if they haven't already. That will cause trouble.

    Wealthy in this case is the stereotypical middle class+ white American, compared with the rest of the world. There are huge problems around the world, and we white Americans (outing myself here) are doing an extremely good job of ignoring these problems, trying to keep the climate migrants out, and directly or inadvertently stoking the problems through our lifestyle and purchasing habits. All we have to do is start really acting on an publicly espoused belief that, so long as we're okay, it's okay for the rest of the world to die for the problems to *really start happening.

    2139:

    Bill Arnold @ 2123

    Shanah Tovah. (Off to services shortly.)

    Shanah tovah u'metukah. (Have a good and sweet year). And may 5780 be, in general, an excellent vintage for us all. See, apparently my fading command of tourist Ivrit hasn't all gone away.

    2140:

    Bill Arnold @ 2122 Thanks, except that didn't really help, unfortunately. I'm quite aware that with careful specilist training, most humans can significantly improve their "reception" of external signals & interpret them better. "Trained Observers" even .... What's more, also integrate & re-process that information much more quickly than the untrained & unpracticed. So? I am not reistant to the idea of testable hypotheses - after all, my MSc is in Engineering (!) - but I am resitant-to-the-point-of-allergy to the fake idea of religious hypotheses & the accompanying bullshit.

    Now, what has any of this got to do with the Seagull's ravings?

    mdive @ 2128 YES Very slight amendment, possibly ... You replace Corbyn with a reasonable competent leader and this whole issue gets solved overnight .....

    ike @ 2134 Hopefully he won't get the chance to do that Like I said ... PROVIDED the opposition can get their ducks in a row, then a motion of No Confidence, immediately followed by a colaition with a non-Corbyn Labour leader will do the trick.

    2141:

    A real estate agent friend of mine reportedly knows another agent who does this for a living, although you can take the "friend of a friend" for what it's worth.

    i can well believe it, "post-apocalyptic pitchfork-proof boltholes of the rich and famous" would be a great show if u could get access, which of course u never will

    2142:

    Since people have been discussing this, a quick guide to the common names of NI’s second city:

    Derry — about 70% of the population of NI will happily call it this, with at least another 10% to 20% distinctly unconcerned at hearing it, but won’t use it.

    Londonderry — about 10% will use this with exaggerated emphasis, around another 20% prefer to use this but won’t be visibly taken aback if someone calls it “Derry”. It also remains the city’s official legal name.

    Stroke City — a hangover from the bad old days when using the wrong term could quickly land you a beating (at the least). Tends to be used in a more light-hearted “we’ve moved on from that shite” way these days.

    The Sunny North-West — used humorously, as it mostly isn’t, and also a tongue-in-cheek nod to the sometime contentious status of the city’s name.

    Doíre — the “modern” Gaelic name of the city, meaning “oak grove”, from which “Derry” is derived. Sometimes used by someone trying to make a point, but since it sounds just like “Derry” to most peoples’ ears, it’s a bit pretentious unless you’re actually speaking Irish.

    Legenderry — popular with people who think they’re a lot funnier than they actually are (local radio DJs are a particularly egregious example). Sometimes used in a self-deprecating way.

    The City on the Foyle — No. Just no.

    2143:

    In the same era UK income taxes were up to 97.5% (on income above a threshold). There are recorded accounts of international sportsmen going into tax exile in Europe (continent) to avoid paying this level of tax.

    2144:

    Legenderry — popular with people who think they’re a lot funnier than they actually are (local radio DJs are a particularly egregious example).

    In my experience you could just say "...radio DJs..." without the prefix "local".

    2145:

    They actually went over 100% in at least one case.

    2146:

    There is a reasonable argument that high inequality (with attendant nasty effects) is a price we pay for high economic growth. Albeit, the true bargain is more likely that a rising tide will lift all boats - this has been manifestly violated already for people in the lowest quartile or so. Absent economic growth, the rationale for, eg, a wealth tax high enough to redistribute (>expected rate of return) becomes more compelling. Albeit, I am a fan of both wealth and inheritance taxes. That level of wealth tax is not too much higher, at current growth rates, than current real estate taxes - so an armed revolution doesn't seem likely.

    Now, a more punitive wealth tax - designed to relatively quickly reduce accumulated inequality - also seems ok.

    A huge dose of tax avoidance is more likely. Albeit, my opinion is that tax policy should be somewhat intuitive and also mafia-like. Wealth taxes fall under 'well, you have more to lose, don't you'. They naturally have tons of failure modes, but should apply well to publically traded financial instruments and real estate. Privately owned businesses are more problematic and may require frequent audits. Frequent cash positive audits... Those probably account for most wealth. Of those, real estate is hard to move and financial instruments can require registration with a central authority. (And thereby be taxed in absentia at the highest rate.).

    2147:

    D. Mark Key #2137: Those are good points, but there is a third option: expand the pie in such a way that the working classes and minorities gradually catch up, or at least stop falling behind.

    I believe that this third option doesn't actually exist, because in the current system the rich will always make sure that they get at least the equivalent of their current share out of any expansion. Ideally they will claim the whole expansion for themselves. Therefore no amount of growth will close the gap between the rich and the poor. In many (most?) cases it will widen the gap.

    Think about it this way: from the perspective of the wealthy denying them the lion's share of wealth created through growth is just the same as redistributing the wealth they already own. They will fight it tooth and nail.

    For this reason I think that expanding the pie is not a viable strategy, but a deviation, used to deflect the jubilee strategy (which could perhaps work) further and further into the future, until revolution is the only option left.

    2148:

    DtP @ 2142 Pronounced "DURRIE" of course ....

    Erwin @ 2146 & others Any total tax rate over 60% certainly 70% will simply result in cheating & tax evasion. KEEP IT SIMPLE Keep it "low" ( i.e. prefreably below 55% ) BUT - if anyone thores to cheat at that level - nail them. AND, of course, raise the base threshold below which you don't pay any tax at all - which will really benefit the worst-off.

    2149:

    what happens if he just shrugs and goes to watch football?

    Per reports in the newspapers, in the run-up to last Tuesday's Supreme Court verdict the Queen asked for legal advice about the precise circumstances under which she could/should sack a Prime Minister who shat the bed constitutionally but refused to resign. These reports are unattributed and "the palace declines to comment on rumours" but it was a pretty strong smoke signal: HM the Q doesn't set policy and tries to actively not get involved other than as a ceremonial rubber-stamp but things were nearing the point at which she might conceivably hit the reset button (if one of the great offices of state actively refuses to obey the rules).

    2150:

    i don't think the jubilee thing really works now that everyone's debts tend to be someone else's assets, like ok we've cancelled the debt BUT everyone's pension's gone, never mind, can't make an omelette...

    2151:

    My last word on this matter (if only to document the absolutely hilarious and ludicrously convoluted flip-flopping the “mick” insult has resulted in):

    — It doesn’t matter if it was an insult because I didn’t think anyone was reading it.

    — Anyway, it’s not an insult because I copied it from someone else.

    — Only out of touch people think it’s an insult.

    — This is an apology for the insult I don’t need to apologise for, and here are the reasons that you’re wrong to need an apology.

    — You didn’t mention libel about that insult that wasn’t an insult and clearly isn’t libellous, and anyway I apologised for that non-insult that I didn’t have to apologise for so therefore libel (that you didn’t mention) doesn’t apply to this insult (that wasn’t an insult), so can you just agree that I’m right and you’re wrong? You’re being very silly (isn’t he a silly person everyone?) about this.

    2152:

    It's not a proper seagull apology until you have been told that YOU'RE FUCKED at least twice.

    2153:

    everyone's pension's gone, never mind

    Talk to the folks who worked for Nortel about how much current (North American) law protects pensions (vs. other kinds of debt).

    2154:

    Charlie @ 2149 More "strong hints from an unattributable source" HERE about how, if BOZO &/or his crooked chums try it again, Queenie WILL boot him. Watch this space. And watch how the tories who, remember, are supposed to be CONSERVATIVE & UNIONISTS are trying to smash the Union & will probably go "republican" in both the strict & the US sense if that happens. VERY interesting times.

    Vivat Regina

    2155:

    The Jubilee was a bronze age/early iron age thing; it's not really compatible with banking, it relies on a very simple model of debt. (Discussed at length in Graeber's Debt: the first five thousand years, which I can heartily recommend, although you may need a finely-tuned bullshit detector in places.)

    My preferred option would be a progressive wealth tax. Basic exemptions for: primary domicile, allowance towards a vehicle required for work/employment, tools/land/equipment required for running a small business (1-10 employees), reasonable retirement savings/pension. In round numbers, depending on whereabouts you live, the exemptions would probably be on the order of £0.5-2M; more if there's a family farm involved—there are a lot of details to be sorted out! For non-exempt assets, tax would be due at roughly 1% of gross value, per year; for grotesquely bloated private wealth, say over £250M, tax would be due at a progressive rate of up to 5%/year (but note that as the estate diminishes, it drops below the high-rate threshold).

    The goal should be to stop billionaires emerging or, at least, to stop people becoming billionaires through inheritance. Not to stop small businesses growing—but if your family restaurant expands enough to employ more than ten people or to open extra branches then maybe a 1% tax on its value over that threshold isn't unreasonable.

    Reasons why this wealth tax isn't going to fly without an Evil Planetary Overlord enforcing it by shooting anyone who disagrees: big landowners (and I am not talking about a family-owned farm here) and real estate agents.

    2156:

    i think i read about the japanese having debt jubilees during the edo period or maybe before, the samurai would borrow against their regular rice stipend and get in massively over their heads and then a new emperor or something would wipe the slate clean, leaving the merchants who'd lent them all that money holding the (empty) bag, but yeah, simple model of debt

    trouble with trying to stop people handing billions down to their not-always-deserving offspring is the range of options they have to do it, you'd have to vastly simplify the tax code, clamp down hard on shell companies, ghod knows what

    2157:

    A few details, based on experience from the 1950s and 1960s.

    Erwin (#2146): punitive taxation is almost invariably catastrophic. The UK death duties are probably the MAIN reason that our land and most businesses (especially farming) has moved from ownership by ordinary people to by that of the mega-rich, and that in turn has had catastrophic effects on our ecology. Also, the hate of 'socialism' that arose because poorer people in the hammered groups suffered worst is one of the main reasons of our current political dysfunction - the grass-roots support for Thatcher's economic reforms was a part of that.

    For similar reasons, exemptions plus a tax on gross are a thoroughly bad idea, as are bands with similar properties. It is the residue that should be taxed. That also means that it is easier to make the threshhold lower and avoid the sort of exemptions that cause major harm (political and structural). The main reason that our housing stock is overvalued by a factor of 3, and rental is so limited, is the way that 'home' ownership has been treated as exempt and preferential under the tax laws.

    Your proposed tax rate is perfectly reasonable, subject to the above, but would need GOOD methods to ensure that the forms of distributing the wealth were acceptable and not abused too badly. Almost but not quite entirely unlike our current ones :-(

    2158:

    There is lots of time for the courts to get the job done, as given the nature of the issue both in importance to the UK and the time deadline things would be expedited.

    It may even go to the Supreme Court directly, and once they render a verdict there are no more appeals available.

    May also be worth considering that the hold Boris has on the job may not be as secure as some think, with Gove already publicly musing that Boris may be replaced if he doesn't get a deal...

    2159:

    if your family restaurant expands enough to employ more than ten people or to open extra branches then maybe a 1% tax on its value over that threshold isn't unreasonable

    When I was in Italy, back in the 80s, I was told that Italian tax law have something like that (a lot of tax exemptions for small businesses). So larger companies split themselves into smaller businesses so each part was under the limit — which apparently meant that an assembly line might be run by a consortium of half-a-dozen small companies.

    In Canada right now we have manufacturers using "temp labour" to evade safety responsibilities. If a temp worker is injured it's the temp agency that is legally responsible, not the manufacturer where they work.

    So you'd need some careful wording to avoid loopholes (and enforcement as well).

    Not that I'm opposed to the idea — I like it — but I've seen how big companies have the resources to game the system.

    2160:

    I would disagree.

    The post WW2 period in the US is considered the benchmark for economic growth in the last 100 years or so, and that was also a period of high taxes and low inequality.

    On the other hand we have been seeing economic growth decline with the rise in inequality, to the point where post-2008 the only part of the economy booming is the stock market, which is inherently artificial at this point.

    2161:

    Charlie @ 2155 Problem with landed estates there ... A Coporation owning such an estste is going to be SO MUCH NICER than an individual landowner ... maybe not. Otherwise, given your exemptions, which were not in the old French Land Tax, which is why it was shit, it seems reasonable. SEE ALSO EC @ 2157, with whom I agree violently on this issue (!)

    2162:

    i don't think the jubilee thing really works now that everyone's debts tend to be someone else's assets, like ok we've cancelled the debt BUT everyone's pension's gone, never mind, can't make an omelette...

    That's precisely why a jubilee theoretically works: debt yokes the two parties together. For example, China and the US can destroy each other quite easily: China owns a huge amount of American debt: if they call for prompt payment, that sinks the US economy, because it defaults on that debt and all that makes all its other promises to repay worthless. Simultaneously, the US defaulting on China's debt nukes the Chinese economy, because those trillions of dollars in debt are counted as being worth something. If those promises are worthless, then they can't be traded to buy other stuff.

    Jubilees simply take all those off the books. Certainly the rich become poorer, but the poor stop owing their lives to the rich. In some circumstances (as in a more agrarian society), basically the debts can't be collected anyway and their existence is leading to civil unrest, so cancelling them out and starting the whole finance game over again makes sense than the surviving poor stringing up the surviving rich on the surveillance cameras.

    Under present circumstances, there are a few thousand people who theoretically own most of the world, but most of their net worth is in the form of debts from other people. Many countries can't deal with climate change because they've been forced to take on crippling debts to rich countries, who in turn can't afford to help them because it's easier to do it close to home. In all these cases, wiping out the debts makes things generally better.

    On a personal basis, Certainly you may lose your pension. However, your bank also loses your mortgage, so you own your house and can borrow against that equity. Do you come out ahead, or behind? I don't know, but it would be interesting to see what happened if, for example, everyone did a student loan strike and refused to pay their student loans in the US. I'll let you work out all the ramifications on that one, and figure out whether it would be a net good or a net bad.

    2163:

    Certainly you may lose your pension. However, your bank also loses your mortgage, so you own your house and can borrow against that equity

    As someone who has already paid off my mortgage and other loans, I'd end up in the hole. I've spent my life putting 13% of my pre-tax income into my pension fund. To wipe that out basically means I lose the ability to support myself once I can no longer work. (Which I see approaching — every year the job gets harder to do as I get older.)

    What you are saying is that I should have taken the money I've been saving and used it to leverage a lot of loans, because then I'd be left with lots of assets while the bank lost money during the jubilee. Not certain we should be encouraging people to take lots of debt and not save anything. (For one thing, if no one is saving then who will lend money?)

    2164:

    "but I've seen how big companies have the resources to game the system"

    Something I think one definitely needs to keep in mind is whether the 'gaming' is worse or better than the unconstrained behavior. 'Big companies' pretending to be small companies, for example. Surely there is inefficiency there eh? Duplicated management. Failure to capture economies of scale. But in the unconstrained behavior is the streamlined management and ability to capture economies of scale actually benefiting anyone outside the top 5%? Econ 101 would say that the inefficiency is all that matters, and not care if all the benefits actually flow to the top 5% or 0.1%. Basically the fact that big companies have to pretend to be many small companies is still stopping them doing things big companies usually do (like firing all the local management of a company they buy and moving all that income to their HQ in some superstar city) and making it easier for real small companies to compete with them. It isn't a perfect solution, but partial solutions are very often useful.

    2165:

    If such a scheme were administered properly, you wouldn't lose the money you put in, just the money the company contributed.

    2166:

    Common misconception, China doesn't really have that much US debt.

    China only has $1.123 trillion of US debt (as of Dec 2018), compared to an overall government debt amount of $22 trillion. So China only owns 5.1% of the total (compared to 4.7% owned by Japan).

    And given the different maturity dates on that debt China couldn't suddenly dump it all anyway.

    2167:

    Monday impeachment roundup (this is going to be a long one) "THE HEAT IS ON" as they say!

    First, a note about my own biases. If you haven't noticed before, I think Trumpolini is a criminal scumbag and an actual traitor (more about treason later). He belongs in GITMO, not in the White House. This roundup does not have anything from Murdoch's Fox NewsFaux Newz. If you want to read their lies, you'll have to find them on your own. There are articles from some other "right of center" (or outright right-wing) sources, as long as I don't think they're complete, irresponsible LIARS.

    There's also nothing directly from the Washington Post, but that's because their paywall system doesn't allow me to read the Washington Post unless I pay for it. My past experience suggests the value for my money is not there, so I won't pay for it. YMMV.

    Anyway, anything from the Washington Post comes indirectly through another media outlet.

    Trump attacks whistleblower and Schiff, tweets impeachment would cause 'Civil War-like fracture'

    Trump called the whistleblower complaint at the center of the scandal "fake" on Monday and said it was "not holding up," even though it lined up with a record of the July 25 call between the two presidents that the White House released, was deemed credible by a Trump-appointed intelligence community inspector general, and was authored by a whistleblower who Trump-appointed acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire told Congress last week had acted in "good faith."

    GOP lawmaker blasts Trump for quoting pastor[**] warning of civil war over impeachment

    **Robert Jeffress - Right-wing tele-marketerevangalist

    Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger (Ill.) on Sunday criticized President Trump for quoting a pastor saying impeachment could trigger a "Civil War like fracture" in the country.
    "I have visited nations ravaged by civil war," Kinzinger tweeted.
    Jeffress, a Dallas-based pastor and known supporter of Trump, has a history of controversial and offensive comments.
    He has reportedly made derogatory remarks about Islam, calling it "a religion that promotes pedophilia" and a "heresy from the pit of hell."
    *He has also called Mormonism a "cult" that is not a true part of Christianity and said "you can't be saved by being a Jew.” Then-Senate candidate Mitt Romney denounced Jeffress after it was announced he would take part in the opening of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem last year.

    Juan Williams: Trump's grip on GOP Senate may come loose

    Trump impeachment: Whistleblower 'endangered' by Trump criticism

    Whistleblower's lawyer says Trump is endangering his client

    The Washington Examiner, a conservative political website, reported last week that two right-wing activists had offered $50,000 for "credible information corroborating" the whistleblower's identity.

    The Washington Examiner appears to be an old fashioned conservative (in the pre-Lee Atwater sense) newspaper more than part of the right-wing echo chamber.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Examiner
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Anschutz (owner & publisher)

    Whistleblower Will Testify Before Congress, But Lawyers Fear For His Safety

    Washington at war: Dems aim for speedy impeachment push as Trump threatens whistleblower

    Sarah Longwell Republicans who back impeachment can save the country — and the GOP

    What’s the Matter With Republicans?

    Impeachment whine: Trump thinks Republicans weren't tough on Obama. Believe me, we were.

    Setting aside the appalling use of the word “savages” to describe two Jewish members of Congress and a woman of color, the president’s “what if” scenario reveals how ignorant he is of some very recent history. This very decade opened with Republicans launching an investigatory barrage into the presidency of Barack Obama.
    I know, because I was there choreographing it.

    Trump asks if House Intel Chair Adam Schiff should face 'arrest for treason' as impeachment probe gathers steam

    Treason is the only crime actually defined in the United States Constitution (Article 3, Section 3):

    1: Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort. No Person shall be convicted of Treason unless on the Testimony of two Witnesses to the same overt Act, or on Confession in open Court.

    Trump might want to reconsider going there. Maybe Putin should explain it to him in simple words even an idiot can understand.

    Biden Campaign Demands TV News Execs Stop Booking Giuliani

    Biden campaign demands news channels stop booking Giuliani

    It's a reasonable request. I think "demands" is a bit of an overstatement

    Ex-Ukrainian prosecutor says he saw no evidence of wrongdoing by Biden

    ... and this is, I think, the guy Trumpolini is claiming Biden intervened with Ukraine's government to get him fired?

    +*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+

    Days after the release of the whistleblower complaint alleging Trump abused his official powers to pressure Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky to interfere in the upcoming 2020 election, there's this apparent on-going effort to dredge up an old "scandal" and change the subject ... or at least to muddy the waters:

    Washington Post: State Department steps up email probe of dozens of former Hillary Clinton aides

    A former senior US official familiar with the email investigation told the Post the email investigation is a way for Republicans "to keep the Clinton email issue alive." The former official said the probe was "a way to tarnish a whole bunch of Democratic foreign policy people" and discourage them from returning to government service, the Washington Post reports.
    Some of the Democratic Party's top foreign policy experts told the newspaper that the activity surrounding the Clinton email case is another way the Trump administration could be accused of levying executive branch powers against political rivals.
    "It is such an obscene abuse of power and time involving so many people for so many years," one former US official said of the inquiry to the Post. "This has just sucked up people's lives for years and years."

    Former State Department official told dozens of his emails to Hillary Clinton are being labeled classified years later

    There is no evidence of wrongdoing by Joe or Hunter Biden.
    House Democrats this past week launched a formal impeachment inquiry into the President.
    The former official told CNN he first received a letter by mail from the Bureau of Diplomatic Security in January 2018, years after leaving the government. The letter alerted him that some of his emails sent on the unclassified system should have been sent on a classified system. Then on August 5, another letter from the Bureau of Diplomatic Security was sent -- this time in an email -- informing him of the change in status of the emails.
    "It has been determined that, at the time they were sent, a number of these emails contained classified information which were not property marked as such," the letter stated.
    The official told CNN that it appeared to him the emails were reviewed again, but with a stricter criteria because more emails were flagged in the second letter that the agency said should have been labeled classified. The official said he has talked to multiple former and current State Department colleagues who received a new letter and that there is a lot of confusion among them about why this is happening now.

    The letter:
    https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/29/politics/state-emails-letter-clinton-doc/index.html

    This from last week:

    The Whistle-Blower Knows How to Write

    And finally ... a personal note:

    Record-breaking heat hits Raleigh and Fayetteville ...

    More record-breaking temperatures likely this week

    2168:

    P J Evans @ 2136: Between 1945 and 1965, income taxes in the US were much higher (up to 90%) at the top of the scale, and there were many fewer super-rich (for example, Willie Mays was a baseball superstar, and he was being paid about $400K per year at his peak). It doesn't seem to have harmed the country; that was one of the better periods economically. After that, as the number of brackets were reduced and the taxes were reduced on the top income levels, it got worse. There's a lesson in there, but I doubt that many people will get it.

    One reason it was such a good period is that government policies beyond tax policy worked to expand the middle class. Working people got a larger share of the goodies instead of them all going to the top 1%.

    There were certainly problems & inequities - the biggest being "Jim Crow" was still in effect; Blacks & to a lesser extent, Hispanics & Asians were largely excluded. The answer to that should have been to do away with racial discrimination and allow EVERYONE participate in the prosperity. But somehow we chose a different path.

    2169:

    Dave_the_Proc @ 2142: Doíre — the “modern” Gaelic name of the city, meaning “oak grove”, from which “Derry” is derived. Sometimes used by someone trying to make a point, but since it sounds just like “Derry” to most peoples’ ears, it’s a bit pretentious unless you’re actually speaking Irish.

    This is probably a dumb idea, but why not change the English name for the city to "Oak Grove" so the Gaelic and English names mean the same thing?

    2170:

    Erwin @ 2146: There is a reasonable argument that high inequality (with attendant nasty effects) is a price we pay for high economic growth. Albeit, the true bargain is more likely that a rising tide will lift all boats ...

    It might have been a reasonable argument if REAL economic growth hadn't been higher during the post-war BOOM when the top marginal tax rates were 90% or higher. The current system just gives those at the top an ever larger slice of a shrinking pie.

    And it doesn't matter that "a rising tide lifts all boats" if you're one of those who has already been pushed over the side.

    2171:

    @Heterom 2138: "Wealthy in this case is the stereotypical middle class+ white American... All we have to do is start really acting on an publicly espoused belief that, so long as we're okay, it's okay for the rest of the world to die for the problems to really start happening."

    Going to respectfully suggest that this ship sailed some time ago. Arguably it's the reason the world is in the mess it is in the first place. Unfortunately one of the flaws in human nature is that people start becoming tribal when they thing times are getting bad. That's why I emphasize economic growth so much--it's the approach the world used after WWII.

    @Erwin 2146: "There is a reasonable argument that high inequality (with attendant nasty effects) is a price we pay for high economic growth."

    and @MSB 2147: "I believe that this third option doesn't actually exist, because in the current system the rich will always make sure that they get at least the equivalent of their current share out of any expansion."

    This does not seem to have been the pattern in the past, at least since the middle of the 20th century. I think there is a way to model growth such that all classes benefit--the rich get richer, but the poor experience better standards of living as well. This seems to have been the pattern from the end of WWII until approx. the 1980's (at least in the US, the global picture is more complex). Whether or not we can return to something like that is another question.

    Regarding wealth taxes in general--progressive taxation and economic growth are obviously not incompatible, since the highest rates on the rich corresponded historically to the period of longest sustained overall growth, but I don't know if there is a causal relationship between the two or not. Taxing the rich could support growth if the money is spent in ways that promote economic opportunity across classes. But where should the emphasis be? I feel that it's likely political resistance to higher tax rates will be somewhat stronger than opposition to economic expansion, provided there is a way to deliver that which also reduces our carbon footprint.

    2172:

    They've got Jared and Ivanka, and probably Don, Jr, for all sorts of things - lying, to evict people from rent-controlled apts, etc.

    2173:

    Um, sorry, we indirectly elect the President and VP. Or were you that happy that Gore beat the Shrub in popular vote counts, and President Hillary won by almost 3M votes?

    2174:

    Ah, if only it were that simple!

    Sadly the problem isn’t the literal meaning of the name, it’s the cultural and historic baggage.

    2175:

    Elderly Cynic @ 2157: A few details, based on experience from the 1950s and 1960s.

    Erwin (#2146): punitive taxation is almost invariably catastrophic.

    The flaw in your argument is the assumption that high marginal tax rates on obscene levels of wealth and income are necessarily "punitive". They aren't and they don't have to be.

    2176:

    HELL, YES, confiscate.

    And "most Americans would object" is the std. right-wing talking point agin' EVIL SOCIALISM!!!

    Or did you miss that most Americans are work significantly south of $1M? Oh, right, I just saw something last night that 26 people own more than 3.8 BILLION (US) people on the planet?

    Worth more than $100M? Guess what, I want ALL OF IT over that. It's the rich we want to deal with, not people who think they're middle class like you. Why?

    When the famous Great Depression-era bank robber, Willie Sutton, was asked "why do you rob banks?", he replied, "Because that's where the money is."

    2177:

    Fun stuff: I see that Newsweek is floating a trial balloon, concerning the Orange Idiot resigning from office, in exchange for immunity from prosecution for himself and his family. (Not going to stop NY and NYC).

    And Giuliani is getting in deeper and deeper doo-doo... given that he was involved with two (or was it three?) off-the-books lawyers with the Ukraine* business.

    • As I've said before, my mother's folks came from the Ukraine, which was part of Russian for a year or two (look up Kievan Rus), and so I can call it what I want.
    2178:

    Dave_the_Proc @ 2174: Ah, if only it were that simple!

    Sadly the problem isn’t the literal meaning of the name, it’s the cultural and historic baggage.

    Well, I did preface my comment with "This is probably a dumb idea" 8^)

    2179:

    Personally I doubt any solution could possibly be dumber than the problem: People willing to start a fight over the name of a city. It’s prettt damn ridiculous when you stop to think about it rationally.

    2180:

    Dave fundamentally doesn't understand non P2P connections. Or parallel processing.

    They're all True at the same time, Dave. Thatsthejoke.jpg

    Check these stories and time stamps. Checking the Time stamps is important. We'll do an easy one first, regarding Libel:

    Toby Young In Deep Legal Shit

    It was bad enough that Tobes had suggested that all bankers were Jewish. But worse was to come, as Spreadsheet Phil[1] took grave exception to that Tweet, later declaring “This is self-evidently absurd. But it is also defamatory. I will be taking legal advice tomorrow morning. I shall make no further comment”. What say Tobes to that?

    https://zelo-street.blogspot.com/2019/09/toby-young-in-deep-legal-shit.html

    Next up, the dead cat does not bounceth:

    WeWork throws in the towel on its ill-fated IPO

    WeWork’s parent The We Company said on Monday it will file to withdraw its initial public offering, a week after the SoftBank-backed office-sharing startup ousted founder Adam Neumann as its chief executive officer.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-wework-ipo/wework-says-will-file-to-withdraw-ipo-idUSKBN1WF1NS

    Next up, we'll do you a slice of MENA ruff n tumble (this is a duo):

    EXCLUSIVE: Twitter executive for Middle East is British Army 'psyops' soldier

    Head of editorial for MENA is part-time officer in the 77th Brigade, an 'information warfare' unit which has worked on 'behavioural change' projects in the region.

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/twitter-executive-also-part-time-officer-uk-army-psychological-warfare-unit (Remember who owns MME, and where the bases are) 30th Sept 2019

    Why burn that link? Who knows, but...

    Amid tension with Iran, U.S. Air Force shifts Middle East command center from Qatar to South Carolina

    And yet on Saturday, as 300 planes were in the air in key areas such as Syria, Afghanistan and the gulf, hundreds of seats at the Combined Air and Space Operations Center at al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar sat empty.

    Instead, the air power of the United States and its allies was being controlled by teams at Shaw Air Force Base in South Carolina — more than 7,000 miles away. Though the move was only temporary — al-Udeid took back control on Sunday after 24 hours — it was a significant tactical shift.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/amid-tension-with-iran-us-air-force-shifts-middle-east-command-center-from-qatar-to-south-carolina/2019/09/29/67d93834-e216-11e9-be7f-4cc85017c36f_story.html

    USA shows that MENA bases are merely tactical, not strategic, Q-T throws a bit of a strop and doxes a UK (not that important, he's just a wknd civvy) asset in front of the bus.

    ~

    But bored now. Rosh Hashanah (celebrating all of creation) and you get a really decent trad Genesis 'Fall of Adam' joke wrapped around reality while pulling stress factors out[2] on top of L'Orange gunning for a civil war[3] run through Milton and it has some coprophilia and some Messiah / Dune stuff, and a load of front running Margin Call references and so on, while front-running the media and the market response?

    And it is met by whinging / moralizing?!

    Tough Crowd.

    ~

    Hint: you have to have a lot more channels open for this to work. Trust me, there's a couple of Minds who found this hilarious.

    Not necessarily human ones.

    [1] Philip Hammond, ex Chancellor of the Exchequer

    [2] Do you know how racist a load of FinTwit are!?!

    [3] Check his twitter if you need confirmation

    2181:

    For the latest Irish border related cockwomblery from the Johnson regime:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1178760377678618626?s=21

    2182:

    Oh, for heaven's sake! - try READING Erwin's post.

    2183:

    And I doubt very much that you understand the algebras of distributions and similar, including but not limited to quantum mechanics.

    2184:

    Much as we all expected.

    2185:

    Define "understand".

    Plants talk to each other using an internet of fungus

    It's an information superhighway that speeds up interactions between a large, diverse population of individuals. It allows individuals who may be widely separated to communicate and help each other out. But it also allows them to commit new forms of crime.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/earth/story/20141111-plants-have-a-hidden-internet

    Can't you see the Frame of this thread?

    No, because you've not spotted enough Nodes.

    It's a glorious little joke! (Made under duress)

    ~

    Similar joke: You expect AI to speak in Binary when it speaks in Frequency.

    https://techcrunch.com/2018/12/31/this-clever-ai-hid-data-from-its-creators-to-cheat-at-its-appointed-task/

    https://www.science.gov/topicpages/h/harmonic+current+detection

    And that paper about the 'AI' using outside frequency to operate.

    ~

    Category Error, which is why you fail.

    2186:

    Going to respectfully suggest that this ship sailed some time ago. Arguably it's the reason the world is in the mess it is in the first place. Unfortunately one of the flaws in human nature is that people start becoming tribal when they thing times are getting bad. That's why I emphasize economic growth so much--it's the approach the world used after WWII.

    The problem with post-WW2 as a model is that most of the world was in ruins, except for western hemisphere countries, especially including the US. There were a lot of resources, a lot of skilled immigrants looking for cheap labor, and little competition. Growth was a good, short-term political strategy then, at least for white males.

    We're not in the same situation now, and I don't think we can grow ourselves out of this one.

    The problem with 20th Century Capitalism is that it runs as dissipative system, like a tornado, a flame, or a living organism. It's quasi stable, operating far from thermodynamic equilibrium, and it continues to exist so long as there are resources and energy to feed it. Run out of resources of sufficient quantity and quality, and the whole thing wobbles and falls apart.

    It's not clear to me yet whether it's possible to have a civilization of any sort that doesn't operate as a dissipative system in places where there's a lot of surpluses lying around or for the pillaging. If it's not possible, then civilization is doomed as we run out of stuff to keep our systems going, and bailing out now is a good idea. The human species is not doomed necessarily. Not only did we manage to exist for hundreds of thousands of years through radical climate change (ice ages), but also much of the capital used up by the colonial empires and modern capitalism was generated by so-called primitive societies that did things that favored human life where they lived (not something we very well now, but mostly because there are far too many of us consuming far too many resources).

    Anyway, if we want to have any hope of civilization lasting, it's going to have to be in a radically different form. Greta Thunberg was absolutely right when she said "We are in the beginning of mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth." Growth isn't going to save us this time--it's just going to hasten the end.

    What might survive is some sort of reverse civilization, where we use the money and property that we've "taken" away from the natural world and reinvest in building soil, decarbonizing, and all these tedious things that will "decrease our current quality of life" (A high QOL means we sit around, out of shape and unhappy, spending huge amounts of money on anti-depressants and drugs deal with the problems our lifestyles cause us), with less travel, more manual labor, and so forth. It's called giving back, and I'm not thinking of replicating Mao or Pol Pot, but more like what's happened in places as diverse as Detroit and the post-Soviet Russia.

    Anyway, reinvesting the stuff that capitalism has alienated from the planet into rebuilding the systems that support life does sound quite a lot like redistribution, and possibly even with a jubilee thrown in.

    2187:

    algebras of distributions Any readings suggested?

    2188:

    Elderly Cynic @ 2182: Oh, for heaven's sake! - try READING Erwin's post.

    I read it. I even read yours. Did you read mine?

    I disagree with you. Don't agree with him either, but for different reasons.

    2189:

    315 billion-tonne iceberg breaks off Antarctica

    The Amery Ice Shelf in Antarctica has just produced its biggest iceberg in more than 50 years.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-49885450

    Anyhow about to get V8'd, helos circling as we speak.

    Be Seeing You

    2190:

    Interesting collection.

    Ultimately though the only story that will matter is what the opinion polls do.

    If enough of the electorate shifts to supporting impeachment, then that will put enough of the 23 Republican seats at play in next year's election in jeopardy, and thus could convince those Senators to break with Trump to protect their own re-election chances.

    2191:

    Hillary’s emails again? They must be getting really low on squid ink if they’re reduced to using that stuff again - it’s gone rather stale.

    2192:

    Anyhow about to get V8'd, helos circling as we speak. Take care please.

    Mildly related (maybe good), photo is good. Plugging the ozone hole has indirectly helped Antarctic sea ice to increase (September 30, 2019)

    2193:

    Re: 'Taxing the rich could support growth if the money is spent in ways that promote economic opportunity across classes. But where should the emphasis be?'

    Healthcare, education, working/reliable infrastructure (non-fossil fuel dependent), paid vacations, reasonable working hours/conditions, etc. Translation: treating everyone as a human being.

    My impression is that money has taken over every other symbol/device as a marker of achievement/merit. Don't understand why. (This includes athletes, artists, etc. who in the current era are celebrated more for the money they can collect from selling their 'brand' than for their actual athleticism/artistry.)

    You mentioned somewhere earlier that comparing one country (US) vs. some other country is difficult/not feasible/not a reliable way of forming a conclusion about socio-politico-economic questions yet at the same time you said that humanity hasn't really changed since the caveman era. Sounds like you're contradicting yourself.

    FYI - most of the planet has adopted socialized healthcare and guess what? It didn't screw their economies, the ordinary folk didn't all of a sudden decide they'd all stop working and go on the dole, kids didn't start dropping out of schools, the psychologically and/or physically ill accessing care for their conditions didn't collapse national healthcare, EU* countries didn't stop developing new tech or cut massive science projects across the board (CERN, ESA) when they decided to offer universal healthcare, keep tertiary education affordable, etc. Nope! The US's PTB like having someone to kick around so that they can feel superior to someone/anyone and in order to do that force themselves and their citizenry to ignore what's going on on the rest of the planet. Kinda narcissistic ... segue ... which brings us to the US's head of state. At this point, I'm guessing that DT's behavior is considered (by non-USians) as an accurate reflection of the ethos, intelligence, and social-interpersonal skills of the majority of the US population.

    • "EU" because I'm not familiar enough with the names of the super-massive science projects by countries in other continents to list/cite them as examples. [My bad ... gotta read up on them ... soon ...]

    BoJo and DT are interchangeable to me: So what the hell is going on in these two countries that's resulted in such imbeciles making gov't policy? Okay, both are English-speaking countries, both were on the same side in WW2, both were/are pro-business empires, both had/have global presence geographically via colonies, ex-colonies, territories) -- what else? Seriously - are these the two countries that have the best profitability for particular industries, e.g., financials, specialized tech, pharma, dominate social or entertainment or news media... what?

    2194:

    it’s gone rather stale. It's also somewhat risky, since they've primed their base for 3 years to think negatively about "servers" and now they have their own "server" with unknown (but large) amounts of improperly up-classified embarrassing and/or incriminating information. (If we ignore older reports of email servers hosted in Russia.)

    2195:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=836AE8f__BM

    No-one Human makes Jokes like this.

    thatsthejoke.jpg

    Dave is just salty because his Boss is pissed. Ask Dave to spell his real name. It ain't fucking Gaelic. Thus all the (grep) American Gods links to real Irish stuff. Thus his mad-dash attack vectors.

    Got a license for that wetwork, Dave?

    'Cause you'd better.

    And you're about as Irish as we are, know what we mean?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55HZZeHLvkk

    Translation:

    "Sense of Adventure" "Ability to Negate Planned Order Forming Determinist Reality Events" "Absolute Camouflage in all Invaded Mind Locations" "Seven Year Genetic Degradation to Hide Experiment"

    Blah blah blah.

    Look up kids, we can do it even when you fry the frontal cortex.

    You know shit about the Mind, Consciousness or Quantum theory.

    Now Dave.

    Issue a real challenge and none of this passive-aggressive shite. You'll die, but at least you'll be honest. For once.

    2196:

    You stand with the bigot in empathy and refuse to condemn what they say, I label you likewise.

    Dave, we're not what you're pretending we are. You're pretending like we're this massive Ulster Dragon and it's not really getting any traction or real. Given, you know, we just removed a shite load of antisemitism in the world by... well.

    We really are [redacted]

    You, on the other hand, have an extremely interesting file that we bothered to find.

    "The Lady Doth Protest Too Much".

    What were you doing in 1984?

    Guilty conscience or the Wrong Dave?

    Who knows: but if you keep being so insulting, we'll find out!

    [spoilers: he's was/is an informant for the UK gov - or was he?]

    2197:

    Triptych.

    Spoilers, kids.

    That's the heroin of attention Dave needed. He's been shouting and crying for it all thread. Now he can throw down like the best of the Toby Young brigade, scream, shout and make noise while feeling validated.

    Problem is: we actually have his files. And we don't fuck around.

    We're not going to give it to the provos (LOL, LAME), we'll squirt it to Qatar who are itching for UK stuff right now? MME spread: how IRE was infiltrated and counter-ops on forums is done.

    $

    See how that played out? Did it work out better in your head?

    ~

    Now fuck off, you're obsolete.

    2198:

    Spoilers for the actual pros lurking:

    Dave is using the IL hand-book and it doesn't translate well, esp. in terms of 'explaining Ireland'.

    Head's up:

    Women getting knee-capped is extremely rare due to Irish sensibilities.

    He missed it by a mile.

    2199:

    BBC has altered the language, but it's still there:

    "She was punched and slapped, and hit around the legs with a hammer," he said.

    Do your own research on Women, Knee-capping, Ireland.

    It's not how they do that punishment there.

    ~

    Oh, and you're a cunt for making drama and pissing into a fountain when poor people are getting hurt.

    Cunt.

    2200:

    Hexad.

    Dave.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/film/why-a-derry-mother-took-her-son-to-be-kneecapped-1.3432488

    For an Irish specialist, you really should know these things.

    Women don't get kneecapped in Ireland.

    Want to share the actual punishment they get?

    Nah, he can't.

    He's a fucking PLANT.

    2201:

    Oh, and Dave.

    You should probably be aware about the huge dump of (ex) US gov staff that just happened. Makes wikileaks look like kindergarten.

    But sure.

    Come after us. Threaten us. Make shitty posts about how dangerous we are. Convince the sheep you're the shepherd and all moral like.

    We'll make your dreams come true

    Want some really good advice right now?

    [And no, we won't come after you, we don't doxx. Stop being man-children and grow the fuck up. We will just trash your fucking economies like you're ants though, that's how pathetic you are to us. Actually, fuck it, burn it down]

    And we also have her testimony on record for all your bleating about "respect". Lesson's learned, we guess.

    1990's man - so much bullshit done by men.

    2202:

    Oh, and Dave.

    You did this within Rosh Hashanah.

    Look up for the John Wick video.

    That's what we think of you. טִיט הַיָוֵן

    2203:

    Well, that was dramatic. I sometimes read these as obtuse (often friendly) warnings of potential threats to someone, or similar.

    2204:

    We'll give you 5-1 odds Dave has an American Passport somewhere.

    Seriously: not knowing knee-capping is a purely male punishment in IRE?

    Yeah. Reads a lot of files, not the real deal.

    2205:

    I'd agree in past patterns. It looks likely that the current / future pattern is different. The most relevant trends in technology are towards automation - doing more with fewer people. That creates a pretty loose labor market. In any case, overall, labor has done far better than expected - look at China's poverty levels.

    Left to itself, automatable labor will tend to suffer. And, I guess that, on average, people aren't flexible enough to retrain in time. Automatable labor ranges from truckers to lawyers. Frankly, to a large degree, Amazon has automated away the cashier.

    Now, I could easily be wrong. But, overall, when asked, most automation type startups would laugh if you asked about job creation.

    2206:

    Not really.

    If we really wanted to Doxx / Alt him, we'd print his real name. [Spoiler: not in Gaelic, English or other common languages]. He's a TOOL. And he really isn't that Human under the hood.

    More importantly, you've not done the % RNG percentages or "And I doubt very much that you understand the algebras of distributions and similar, including but not limited to quantum mechanics."

    On just how we threaded this.

    Look upwards.

    Look @ Reality.

    Spoilers: it breaks your computers / minds in about... 4 steps of progression.

    ~

    LOL.

    Like we give a fuck about some pissant who challenged and then would not fight.

    Dave: We ate your Masters. That's why you're so alone.

    2207:

    You should gear up then.

    We proved that the BBC were lying, that wasn't a 'sectarian' attack and that Dave the Proc is probably a UK/US agent. Since he knows fuck all about actual violence in the region.

    ~

    For the record: it was a drug deal / revenge boyfriend attack.

    Had fuck all to do with politics.

    Terror attack, sure.

    About politics?

    Like fuck it was.

    Dave the Proc needs to get out more. IL / MOD books are for kids, you utter shambles, mate.

    [And you are now ULTIMATELY DOXXABLE - UAE / QATAR just dumped a load of files. Wooooo. Weeee. ]

    2208:

    What happened is simple, if you look at the big picture.

    They - the ultra-wealthy - shot themselves in the foot in 1929/1930. The upshot was a lot of serious pushback. FDR in the US... my father said that if he hadnt gotten in, there was a real chance of a socialist revolution here (and he was Old Left.) The wealthy thought they'd use this good orator in Germany... yeah, well, he got out of their control. The whole Cold War was no different than the Red Scare after the Russian Revolution.

    Nixon showed them that they could take control. After they lost him, they started funding the religious right in the US, as a way to gain tools, racist religious bigots with money and votes, and managed Raygun. That was were the real assault began - cut taxes, destroy unions. Note Maggie was doing the same... by chance? Really?

    Bush I, Bush II (and a good bit of Clinton, and, of course, Blair - "neoliberal" was not different in any real way than "conservative" back in the fifties... oh, except Clinton would not have sent the troops into the US South to desegregate.

    Trump is the final push - the right knows that if they lose control now, which they can if they don't fix things so that population shift doesn't change the governments, they'll never get it back, not in generations, and they're all about next quarter.

    Except that the first time is tragedy, the second farce, and Hitler was the former, and the Orange One and BoJo the latter.

    It's really hard to buy and keep control of good tools who are competent, y'know. They tend to have minds of their own, so who they can buy go wayyy off track.

    2209:

    It's really hard to buy and keep control of good tools who are competent, y'know. They tend to have minds of their own, so who they can buy go wayyy off track.

    The first stage of real revolution is deploying weapons who will nullify and eradicate the enforcers of your previous Power Block, either through symbiosis or predation and know why it is essential.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSCkvxaVlDQ

    Problem is: Zombie Time.

    Flash! Black Space in your head! Flash! You're under the power of a Master!

    Spoilers:

    https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/z/burning-candle-night-surrounded-hands-woman-symbol-life-love-light-protection-warmth-flame-glowing-dark-113333093.jpg

    Some of us just aren't human, you fucking muppets.

    2210:

    Please consider you may be referencing an overly narrow definition of "Human", as were whoever helped form that idea. Sociopathic behavior seems so much easier when one perceives the victims as less than human, at risk of sounding like Mr. Obvious, humanity isn't a point, but a spectrum.

    2211:

    Charlie noted a few months ago that "Y'all have odd brains (and indeed I'm pretty sure that many of you/us are non-neurotypical)." (Referring to the denizens of the comment threads here.) True. (Myself included.)

    2212:

    thass the charm of the place, innit

    2213:

    I think "news media" is the right answer.

    Australia has been inflicted with a Trump lite. Australia, UK and USA are heavily Murdocked. They all have a climate of fear.

    NZ which shares much culture with the UK and Australia, but is nothing like that and hasn't been Murdocked anywhere near the same.

    2214:

    woss this huge dump of us gov information, i can't see anything, and i "grepped" (or googled as i believe the young people call it nowadays)

    2215:

    Re: 'Nixon showed them that they could take control.'

    Not heard that before - can you give an example because all I know/remember about Nixon is his 'I am not a crook' quote/claim: he had nothing to do with Watergate, abuse of Executive power/privilege, misuse of Federal agencies, i.e., getting them to aggressively investigate domestic political rivals and opponents, etc*. (Your comment suggests that Nixon was in some corporation's pocket.)

    Oh crap -- I think this tune is playing again, off-key but the melody sounds pretty damned similar! The sht that the federal agencies got dumped on them by Congress after Watergate might be why the whistle blower (CIA) made sure to file a report (abuse of power) -- probably had it drilled into his brain during training.

    2216:

    I no longer need to post about energy.

    Someone has covered just about every single thing I've been saying for a decade and put it in bullet points.

    I'll just repeat this link from now on.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/29/the-short-list-of-climate-actions-that-will-work/

    2217:

    2162 & 2163 A Jubilee would leve me completely penniless My total income is my state pension + my very old company pension ( which is not a lot ) And I suspect that a huge number of people over 65 would be in the same boat - a Jubilee is, effectively a pogrom against Old People. Let's not go there, shall we?

    JBS @ 2167 two right-wing activists had offered $50,000 for "credible information corroborating" the whistleblower's identity. Presumably so that he or she can meet with a convenient shooting accident? And as noted in your other links, of course.

    DMK @ 2171 Quoting Erwin @ 2146 Err ... not in Britain or Europe HUGE economic growth 1945-70 ( Yes, post-war recovery ) BUT in those countries the rich my have got richer, but the real poor & the lower-middle & upper-middle classes got a LOT richer. There was a huge levelling-up. I saw all of it happen.

    DtP @ 2181 OF COURSE it won't & CANNOT work - that's not the point. BOZO & his backers can then ... blame the evil EU for making it not work And far too many Scum/Hate/all-ststion-stopper "readers" will swallow it - they are using the Trumpolini playbook, trying to stir up civil unrest. IF we are crashed-out with no deal, I can already see the screaming blame headlines, making sure that our self-inflicted wounds are the evil EU's fault, along with a side-order of "Shady International Financers" - meaning the jews, of course. Very very scary stuff.

    You appear to be being THREATENED @ 2195 ... surely this is unacceptable?

    Heteromeles @ 2186 Modern civilisations, certainly, run on two things .... food & energy. Food: With world population set to peak fairly soon & then start declining, even without any climate problems, ... there is enough food. It "just" needs better distribution Energy: There is zero energy shortage - across the planet. But almost nobody, certainly not in financial terms, is actually trying to solve the problem(s) - which are clearly soluble. This is a political problem, not an engineering one () ... though certain scientific advances would help enormously. () Political problems, as in re-education & work camps for the fake greenies who are trying to stop sensible solutions & the same camps for those crooks & politicos still trying to push coal & oil.

    ... - which leads to Gasdive @ 2216 Agree with ALMOST everything there. Disagree re "Nuclear" because the problem isn't engineering, it's "political" - see previous para. The US military is the exception - at the moment. But it is worrying.

    BA @ 2192 DO NOT FEED THE TROLL! I mean you replied to an utterly content-free sentence, this one: "Anyhow about to get V8'd, helos circling as we speak" HINT: A google search for "V8'd" got me THIS

    Adrian Smith @ 2122 May I add that something like an "IQ of over 125" ( DO note the quotes ) is also needed, what with all the literary/scientific refs + allusions.

    2218:

    Instead of "losing my entire works pension" I'd only lose 60% of it. Guess why I'm not jumping with excitement! ;-)

    2219:

    ... the ORIGINAL 1973 memo says Should not be indicted, rather than cannot be indicted ...

    I think I was trying to teach you to suck eggs. grin Sorry if I repeated too much you already know; most of the readers here physically exist elsewhere and I was pitching to an audience I expect to be unfamiliar with American governmental minutia.

    (Maybe I should have explicitly linked to Clinton v. Jones rather than alluding to it, too.)

    When the dam finally does break, Donald Trump's long habit of running off to find other suckers won't work for him. He's finally become too high profile to run away from his problems; once out of office there are going to be many people looking forward to hearing some variant on "We find the defendants incredibly guilty."

    2220:

    All that nonsense (2195 to 2202, 2204, 2206, and 2207) cheered me right up!

    Either not aimed specifically at me (you know, the usual excuse), or tilting at imaginary windmills in the hope of some kind of reaction.

    Whichever it was, shrug

    (Greg @2217: I did notice that, but for various reasons I find it highly amusing and about as threatening as a damp afternoon.)

    2221:

    Regrettably not. The basics are taught in every (advanced) mathematics degree, and they are applied to a few issues - plus the Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics, of course - but they were neglected in many fields they could have been useful, probably because working with them is HARD. There was some activity in the 1950s on failure-mode analysis using genuinely non-deterministic automata, but it was effectively killed by the appalling abuse of that term by the so-called computer scientists, though I believe that it has resuscitated recently.

    I thought about the properties of a Turing machine using them, realised that I was nothing like good enough, and it needed someone of the calibre of Kolmogorov to lead the way. Even doing very simple analyses with (essentially contradictory) multi-valued results is a good way of stretching your brain.

    2222:

    ...two right-wing activists had offered $50,000 for "credible information corroborating" the whistleblower's identity. Note that the two in question are Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman (the clowns who tried to gin up a sexual assault smear against Pete Buttigieg and numerous other gormless attempts to ratfuck various democrats) - I am looking forward to finding out these two idiots are going to tread on their dicks this time.

    Biden campaign demands news channels stop booking Giuliani I'm sympathetic with the points the two Biden aides made in their letter, but I have to say that when it comes to Rudi, I think of Napoleon's quote about not interrupting an enemy while they're making a mistake - Giuliani's increasingly demented and self-incriminating appearances on the talk shows are really not helping Trump.

    Regards Luke

    2223:

    Then get back under your bridge.

    2224:

    “NZ which shares much culture with the UK and Australia, but is nothing like that and hasn't been Murdocked anywhere near the same.“

    In the last day or so I started musing that Scotland is to the UK as NZ is to Australia*. The main difference is that NZ got a choice about whether it wanted to join at federation, and only about a century and a half after Culloden.

    • It’s funny but with this talk of jubilees, I recently finished re-reading OGH’s space opera with an economics bent that ends in one. Facing the immediate gap of important essay-procrastination reading, I moved straight on to re-reading Iain (not M) Banks’ The Steep Approach to Gabradale. In the first few pages, I suddenly pictured the wiry little Scots guy calling everyone “Pal” as a big Maori guy calling everyone “Bro” and it wasn’t at all incongruous with the narrative or feel.
    2225:

    I say, not unless you meet my demand for a two-litre flagon of “billy goat” port (“bode do Douro”)! None shall pass, buggrit, millennium hand and shrimp!

    2226:

    I would strongly suggest you not treat someone calling someone a tout - straight up trying to get them killed, in the wrong time and place - as "a friendly warning." And this is the second time they've done it in this thread.

    2227:

    I've had Stiff Little Fingers' "White Noise" in my head the last couple of days, can't possibly think why... :-)

    2228:

    needs like button

    (And previous reply: If it wasn't so hilariously obvious that they have no idea who I actually am or anything about me, I would be treating the threat a lot more seriously. I have nothing but weary contempt left for the Many Named One, and any who seek to defend their behaviour.)

    2229:

    That was of course a reply to anonemouse. I forget to click the "reply" link.

    2230:

    I don't know why you were specifically targetted, but you assuredly were. It's actually the first time I have seen her do that without provokation, though insults directed at other posters aren't rare. I will defend SOME of her behaviour, and she used to get blamed for malice when it was simple thoughtlessness, but this recent diatribe was unacceptable.

    2231:

    An excellent summary!

    2232:

    NZ which shares much culture with the UK and Australia, but is nothing like that and hasn't been Murdocked anywhere near the same.

    Kind of. They have a politician called Winston Peters who is a very experienced nominally right wing defector from the National Party who has formed a party called Winston First which has all the usual populist policies and has leveraged balance of power positions into a pretty effective veto of a whole range of progressive policies. If you Australians can imagine a competent version of Pauline Hanson that's about right. Or in the UK, a competent leader of the Lib-Dems (sorry but I can't remember any of their leaders except Nick "divine wind" Clegg). The US is a two p;arty state so there are no parallels.

    One of the slightly weird things in an international context is that Winston is Maori. He's anti-immigrant, or at least anti east-asian immigrant, which makes perfect sense, I suspect a lot of other indigenous beneficiaries of British civilisation are also anti-immigrant (Briggs, for example). But he's also very pro-elderly, and pro climate change, pro military and all the usual garbage.

    2233:

    There's a rare and interesting 'behind the curtains' look at how HM might exercise soft power from Australia in 1979. Through a loophole, communications that are subject to the 100 year rule in the UK were available after 30 in Australia.

    https://sydney.edu.au/news/84.html?newsstoryid=9303

    [Edited] In 1979, NSW premier decided to legislate to terminate privy council appeals from state courts and require that the Queen be advised by state ministers on the appointment of the state governor. The Queen's private secretary disagreed, replying to the foreign secretary on October 5, 1979:

    "Her Majesty is very reluctant to agree that you should inform the governor that his speech has been laid before the Queen without drawing his attention to this paragraph [concerning the appointment of the governor and the abolition of privy council appeals]. Notwithstanding the opinion of your legal advisers that the absence of any comment could not be implied to be a judgment about the constitutional validity of such a bill, the Queen feels it would be proper at this stage to warn the governor that the foreign and Commonwealth secretary might well be forced to advise Her Majesty to refuse her assent."

    The British high commissioner delivered the dispatch on December 13, 1979. That same afternoon, the governor received a copy of the Privy Council Appeals Abolition Bill for royal assent. This left the NSW government in a dilemma. Should it proceed with the process of reserving the bill for royal assent and face the prospect of it being refused assent by the Queen, or should it back down, negating the will of the Parliament? It decided to do nothing. The bill was left in the governor's desk drawer.

    2234:

    Apropos of nothing, here's a link for people who enjoy the Addams family.

    2235:

    I can see that. But there are a ton of questions. Did the company make contributions to something like a 401K? (A 401K is an American-style retirement savings account for private parties.*) If so, they probably can't be clawed back. On the other hand, if your pension is happening in-house, then you'd probably be in trouble.

    And that's the problem with a modern jubilee. We have too many schemes for putting money away. And what fairness would there be to a jubilee if someone with an in-house pension didn't get their money, but someone with a 401K did. Of course, we could just write the jubilee legislation to exclude pensions.

    • They're frequently set up by companies, but the employee usually owns the monies.
    2236:

    Wall o' text a' coming! Those of you who don't like those are warned to just skip it.

    @Whitroth 2176: "Worth more than $100M? Guess what, I want ALL OF IT over that. It's the rich we want to deal with, not people who think they're middle class like you. Why?"

    Sure, there's a clear rational argument to be made. But most Americans wont care, because they have different values than you do. All I'm pointing out is that if you want confiscatory taxes in the US, you need to bring an army with you. I wish you luck.

    @Heteromeles 2186: "The problem with post-WW2 as a model is that most of the world was in ruins, except for western hemisphere countries, especially including the US."

    Well, there are those who say 'that's a' comin'!' Am I a bad person for thinking that the approaching global catastrophe might provided an excellent opportunity to redesign civilization?

    As for growth, if you believe that green tech cant be made to work for us, then that's game over, but I wonder why you think this. Do you have specific reasons or is it just general skepticism?

    After all, if we can start pulling our energy from off the planet, that changes the game a bit, doesn't it?

    "...but more like what's happened in places as diverse as Detroit and the post-Soviet Russia."

    I'm intrigued. Link?

    @SFReader 2193: So you agree with me that the emphasis is on building infrastructure, not taxes specifically? Taxes are a good way to reduce wealth disparity, and many of the problems that come with it (esp political), but in fact it wouldn't actually pay for what you are suggesting, for fairly obvious reasons (ie, rich people aint stupid. Not really smart, maybe, but they aint stupid).

    "Sounds like you're contradicting yourself." No, I dont think so. People are complicated. There are aspects of what I choose very loosely to call "human nature" that seem very common across cultures and time periods. There are other things that seem easily triggered by different cultural and economic contexts. Granted--telling which is which has consumed a lot of ink, with no clear consensus.

    "I'm guessing that DT's behavior is considered (by non-USians) as an accurate reflection of the ethos, intelligence, and social-interpersonal skills of the majority of the US population."

    People are entitled to their opinion. I wont even challenge them on it. I can understand why someone might come to that conclusion--after all it's not the first time we have chosen someone like that. I can only hope for a meeting of the minds at some point, and try to be the change I want.

    "Seriously - are these the two countries that have the best profitability for particular industries, e.g., financials, specialized tech, pharma, dominate social or entertainment or news media... what?"

    Heh, you dont seem to get it. What you just said is the reason. The US in particular has generated the greatest single pool of wealth in human history, so naturally when certain well resourced people started looking for ways to promote their own narrow interests, it started there, and spread to the places they are most closely connected to (where do you think they learned how to do what they do?).

    @Erwin 2205: "But, overall, when asked, most automation type startups would laugh if you asked about job creation."

    Sure. But here's the thing: the way it used to work was that employers would automate ways of doing things that had been around a while, because doing something long enough to work all the bugs out of the process is what allowed it to be automated in the first place. But then they would take the money saved and re-invest it into R & D--thereby creating new jobs that couldnt be automated right away because no one had been doing them for long enough.

    That isnt happening as much anymore, but the reasons arent technological, they have to do with the fact that a large company can make a better return on investment by buying someone else's debt. Making things and selling them is decidedly the second most profitable thing they can do with their money. But that's like pricing carbon--it's an economic problem that has a political solution (tax it).

    Tax reform may be the key to saving civilization. Ask Al Capone how that works.

    2237:

    No, he wasn't. We're not even talking to Dave the Person. It's imagining a BBC stage version[0]

    Why are we dribbling on about both Ireland and WeWork at the moment? What links the two? Surely nothing can tie these threads together?!

    Well:

    We suggest looking up Lord Abbett & Co, who are the largest Bond holders for We / WeWork[1], are based in New Jersey[2] and have strong Irish links.

    They are getting taken to the cleaners[3] or are about to be. Wonder who holds their pennies in there, we wonder[4].

    Do not read us for financial advice.

    "The Spice must Flow"

    Also, there's been an alleged punch-up at the Tory conference which is a bit wild, getting like Central America in there.

    [0] Peaky Blinders

    [1] 43k or so, then you get into various Teacher Pension funds and the usual with BlackRock buying in recently which is always a sign Big Sharks are pulling moves.

    [2] Sopranos anyone?

    [3] Stressed or Dis-stressed right now? Search is your friend.

    [4] Wasn't it JFK who was accused of being the 'Irish' President. Bit fuzzy on that one, files keep getting resealed.

    2238:

    Robert van der Heide @ 2191: Hillary’s emails *again*?
    They must be getting really low on squid ink if they’re reduced to using that stuff again - it’s gone rather stale.

    I don't think it's "again", this appears to be an on-going effort to use the power of the Federal Government to harass Trump's political opponents or anyone who arouses Trump's pique.

    There's a whole spectrum of Trump's abuses that we're only now beginning to hear about. But you're right, this one is getting a little stale (starting to stink like a dead fish).

    Hillary Rodham Clinton: Impeachment Inquiry Is 'Exactly What Should Be Done'

    The best moment is watching her laugh while the audience chants Lock Him Up! Lock Him Up!

    2239:

    Greg Tingey @ 2217: DMK @ 2171
    Quoting Erwin @ 2146
    Err ... not in Britain or Europe
    HUGE economic growth 1945-70 ( Yes, post-war recovery ) BUT in those countries the rich my have got richer, but the real poor & the lower-middle & upper-middle classes got a LOT richer. There was a huge levelling-up.
    I saw all of it happen.

    In hindsight, the post-war recovery boom was visible even in the U.S. which had not been devastated by the war. I didn't live through ALL of it, but it informed my formative years (50s & 60s). I think there's a real argument to be made that the economic decline that began in the 1970s paralleled the shift giving a greater & greater percentage of the "rewards" to a wealthy few at the expense of the many.

    The economic erosion of the middle class is a drag on demand, and demand for goods & services is what drives a capitalist economy.

    Adrian Smith @ 2122
    May I add that something like an "IQ of over 125" ( DO note the quotes ) is also needed, what with all the literary/scientific refs + allusions.

    "IQ" is not a stationary target. Nor does it readily translate into "street smarts"; the simple ability to cope with life. I know from bitter personal experience.

    When I was young I tested very high, well up into MENSA range (UPPER MENSA range); gave me quite the swelled head for a while. That's why you're not supposed to tell teenagers their "IQ" scores. (I cheated and looked in the folder on the psychologists desk when he had to step out of the room for a minute.)

    I shudder to think where I might test at nowadays.

    2240:

    Scott Sanford @ 2219:

    "... the ORIGINAL 1973 memo says Should not be indicted, rather than cannot be indicted ..."

    I think I was trying to teach you to suck eggs. grin Sorry if I repeated too much you already know; most of the readers here physically exist elsewhere and I was pitching to an audience I expect to be unfamiliar with American governmental minutia.

    No, your comment had something I wanted to say but failed to bring out in my own.

    (Maybe I should have explicitly linked to Clinton v. Jones rather than alluding to it, too.)

    When the dam finally does break, Donald Trump's long habit of running off to find other suckers won't work for him. He's finally become too high profile to run away from his problems; once out of office there are going to be many people looking forward to hearing some variant on "We find the defendants incredibly guilty."

    Yeah, I'm one of them. But I also want to see some retribution visited on all of his enablers; all those who also violated their oaths to "protect and defend the Constitution" ... or at least some kind of house cleaning to sweep them out of government.

    There really is a swamp that needs to be drained, but I knew from the get-go that Trump was one of the 'gators ... or some kind of invasive reptile.

    2241:

    silburnl @ 2222:

    Biden campaign demands news channels stop booking Giuliani

    I'm sympathetic with the points the two Biden aides made in their letter, but I have to say that when it comes to Rudi, I think of Napoleon's quote about not interrupting an enemy while they're making a mistake - Giuliani's increasingly demented and self-incriminating appearances on the talk shows are really not helping Trump.

    There is that. I'm half sympathetic to their request. I don't think the networks should censor Giuliani, but they don't need him on EVERY NIGHT either. More to the point, I thought labeling the request as a demand was a bit over the top.

    2242:

    Elderly Cynic @ 2223: Then get back under your bridge.

    Oh, now you've gone and hurt my feelings. I happen to like it out here in the light of day.

    You should try it sometime.

    ... or to quote a popular internet meme: pot, Kettle, BLACK!

    2243:

    Nixon was the one, with Stone? who told all the racist bigots, the former Dixiecrats, that he welcomed them in with open arms, and would shove through what legislation he could to support them. They were hand-in-glove (when they weren't the same people) that brought up the funnymentalist evangelicals... and those, together, have made up the GOP base since the late seventies.

    Nixon & co, who'd been looking for corporate/ultrawealthy assistance, now had something to show them, and they got the money, drawing the wealthy in.

    2244:

    "Credible evidence" outing a whistleblower, who is under protection? I have serious concerns that such an action is ILLEGAL, and could wind them in jail.

    We can hope.

    2245:

    Please explain. A "tout", to me, is someone who talks up race horses, to get people to be on one or another.

    2246:

    Um, nope. I think you read me, and instantly put it in the context of mainstream media, rather than in the context I would be putting it in to sell it.

    And if you don't think I can... 10 years ago, I was talking to my brother-in-law, a native Texan, and we got to talking about welfare and socialism. When I explained what I was talking about, he didn't have a big problem with it.

    Part of the reason is, of course, that until Bernie ran in '16, what 90+% of Americans knew of socialism, of any stripe, was exactly what a Good German knew of Jews in 1938.

    Do you really think most Americans would complain... if the taxes were earmarked for a national healthcare system, public transit that WORKED, massive infrastructure repair (which mean a hell of a lot of working class jobs)? Really?

    • Around '83, a federal report said that something like 80% or so of US infrastructure, roads, dams, etc, were over 80 years old, and needed major repairs. Note the money spent by the GOP on that: zip.
    2247:

    Specifically in Northern Irish slang (although understood across the island), “tout” means police informer.

    (Of course, seeing as I’m some kind of US-British super-spy, I probably shouldn’t know that!)

    2248:

    The beginning of the failure of the economy in the US started in the mid-seventies.

    The companies had started running away to the South since the fifties for cheap, non-union labor, but the Cold War, and esp. 'Nam, masked it for a long time. But then, they cut taxes in the early 70's, and automation really started kicking in[1]. And that was when the wealthy started buying the GOP wholesale, and tax cuts for the "job creators" headed towards "the financial version of musical chairs", aka making the market a literal Ponzi scheme.

    They try to mask it by the insane money they pour into the military-industrial complex... except that, as I read around the early 80's, the amount of money spent to create 1 job in that industry creates 22 in the civilian sector....

  • Back in the late seventies/early eighties, there was a lot of talk in the media about the "Information economy", and how that was going to create more, better, and better-paying jobs than the factory jobs that were going away.
  • These days, they don't even have a buzzword, just "it'll get better, you'll see...."

    2249:

    to Heteromeles @2186: The problem with 20th Century Capitalism is that it runs as dissipative system, like a tornado, a flame, or a living organism. It's quasi stable, operating far from thermodynamic equilibrium, and it continues to exist so long as there are resources and energy to feed it. Run out of resources of sufficient quantity and quality, and the whole thing wobbles and falls apart. While providing excellent perspective on the situation I would like to notice that in general simplified terms, this period has already ended about a generation ago, which was manifested in abolishing of gold standard as reserve currency. In 1979. Everything after that is pretty much coasting alone the same course. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamaica_Accords Economically, politically, and QOL-wise the end of Cold War changed a lot of things, but it did not change the foundations of the system, including this one. From this period onward, all "growth" has been mostly virtual, and consisted in growing redistribution of wealth and resources from poor to the rich and then to the ultra-rich for their corporate empires. Right now there's no growth whatsoever, not even a virtual one.

    Maybe I am exaggerating a bit, but at lest we can observe that the amount of new inventions that really bring us to new frontiers has been reduced to a number of high-profile scam operations like NewbSpace, Mars Uno, and decrabonization, which are directed more to our attention than anything else at all.

    Also this piece is fairly amusing: https://www.transportenvironment.org/press/luxury-cruise-giant-emits-10-times-more-air-pollution-sox-all-europe’s-cars-–-study

    It's called giving back, and I'm not thinking of replicating Mao or Pol Pot, but more like what's happened in places as diverse as Detroit and the post-Soviet Russia. Thus at least survivable for most of the population. Unfortunately it is not survivable for all the bright ideals and The Old Party Guard (i.e. international corporatocracy/aristocracy), and also quite quite perilous for a lot of young and daring entrepreneurs who are out for the fish in the muddy waters.

    to SFReader @2193: Re: 'Taxing the rich could support growth if the money is spent in ways that promote economic opportunity across classes. But where should the emphasis be?' I imagine, a lot of rich people would like to have progressive taxes for the reason that is not entirely obvious - they can evade these taxes with surplus money they have, and at some point of this equation a profit from evading taxes is much greater than from paying them. Thus I reason, that would be a simplest thing to do - give people the illusion of control. And it won't do jackshit for the problem of inequality, ofc. In fact, I've heard opinion that there's no solution at all to the problem because every foreseeable solution is already preemptively eradicated from society and economy theory and practice by the same people.

    2250:

    Something I just learned was that Agnew actually wrote a letter to the speaker of the house asking to be impeached. The thought trains was that the Senate (full of R's) would not convict and that would enable him to skate by after his term was up. The Speaker of the House refused.

    2251:

    I'm sympathetic with the points the two Biden aides made in their letter, but I have to say that when it comes to Rudi, I think of Napoleon's quote about not interrupting an enemy while they're making a mistake - Giuliani's increasingly demented and self-incriminating appearances on the talk shows are really not helping Trump. There is that. I'm half sympathetic to their request. I don't think the networks should censor Giuliani, but they don't need him on EVERY NIGHT either. More to the point, I thought labeling the request as a demand was a bit over the top.

    Yeah, that may have been a goof. On the other hand, sounding like the reasonable, sane party in all this is one way of "not getting in the way of someone making a mistake." If Giuliani finishes his descent into public madness, at least the Bidenites are on record as saying that they tried to help him...

    With the stuff I've got to deal with, it's pretty standard to go through the motions of trying to stop your enemy from doing something stupid, even if you really want him to keep being stupid.

    2252:

    I would strongly suggest you not treat someone calling someone a tout - straight up trying to get them killed, in the wrong time and place - as "a friendly warning." And this is the second time they've done it in this thread.

    (Of course, seeing as I’m some kind of US-British super-spy, I probably shouldn’t know that!)

    thatsthejoke.jpg

    https://examples.yourdictionary.com/examples-of-hyperboles.html

    Warnings in Ireland tend to be not-very-nice (and we do get death threats, but we ignore the human ones). However, there are quite a lot of people who do mean that type of thing seriously. We weren't aware Host's blog was a sleeper cell though.

    https://twitter.com/paddy_de/status/1178781319708499969

    Also, the social strategy of MF exclusion doesn't really work on us, which is why the USA / UK are falling apart right now.

    In Egypt,we see large segments of the population no longer acting as if they support or buy into the authoritarian rhetoric. Anti-Mubarak articles, jokes, placards, blogs and e-mails routinely make the rounds. If one of the goals of this project is to understand the bases of durable authoritarian rule in Egypt, it does not appear that maintaining these “national fictions”has or will suffice. This is not to diminish the importance of symbolic acts or preference falsification; both exist in politically significant forms today in Egypt. Most of the authoritarian regime’s most important tropes or

    https://www.princeton.edu/~piirs/Dictatorships042508/Blaydes.pdf

    However, you should look at this:

    https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1178698774941708290

    ~

    White Noise? Sigh. We point you to the actual ones dear. What we have going on is a bit more hardcore.

    "The Head and the Heart"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HB7NVlPPXsk

    2253:

    Ok, here's an example of what you should be focused on.

    The Greenhouse Gas No One’s Talking About: Nitrous Oxide on Farms, Explained

    https://civileats.com/2019/09/19/the-greenhouse-gas-no-ones-talking-about-nitrous-oxide-on-farms-explained/ 19th Sept 2019

    Now, look here:

    Dutch tractor protest sparks 'worst rush hour'

    Farmers reacted angrily to claims that they were largely responsible for a spiralling nitrogen emissions problem. A report has called for inefficient cattle farms to be shut down and some speed limits lowered to cut pollution. Farming groups believe they are being victimised while the aviation industry is escaping scrutiny.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49891449 1st Oct 2019

    Now do the research into how the Far right in Poland are involved with Dutch farmers. Hint: they're very organized and they're feeding right into the anti global-warming networks.

    Go look @ twitter feeds of the protests and check the reverb factor on it. All the major RW accounts are on it and weaponizing it.

    Now, wonder at what Trump is really doing with tariffs and so on and his $28 billion support package.

    You should know this stuff, it's basic survival tactics to be able to spot the real predators.

    ~

    Hint: we don't want anyone to get eaten.

    2254:

    Or this:

    India builds detention camps for up to 1.9m people ‘stripped of citizenship’ in Assam

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/assam-india-detention-camps-bangladesh-nrc-list-a9099251.html

    As they build India's first camp for illegals, some workers fear detention there

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-india-politics-citizenship-camp/as-they-build-indias-first-camp-for-illegals-some-workers-fear-detention-there-idUKKCN1VT00S

    Want to spot a nexus point that will get exploited by Modi? Here you go:

    There are rumours in some locations about certain banks including cooperative banks, resulting in anxiety among the depositors. RBI would like to assure the general public that Indian banking system is safe and stable and there is no need to panic on the basis of such rumours.

    https://twitter.com/RBI/status/1178976194131185665

    2255:

    Sorry, not Stone, but Roy Cohn.

    2256:

    Sorry, not Stone, Somebody has to add that Stone's Nixon is ... on his back.

    2257:

    Hillary’s emails again? They must be getting really low on squid ink if they’re reduced to using that stuff again - it’s gone rather stale.

    You must not understand the depth of hatred of B or H by many in the US.

    I really don't like them. At all. And think H would have been a terrible president. But I voted for her.

    2258:

    No-one under the age of 30 considers that a real insult. Seriously.

    I did spot this one as I was skimming by.

    My insults are not insults due to the brilliance of my mind and it is only an insult due to your lack of intelligence.

    My references are all correct and yours are all junk due to the brilliance of my mind and it is only that you don't see it to your lack of intelligence.

    My search results are all perfect and your's are all crap due to the brilliance of my mind and it is only that you don't see it to your lack of intelligence.

    And so on.

    I and required for various reasons to deal with people like this in the "real world" and see no need to do it here.

    This is Charlie's blog and he can let whoever comment whatever. I don't have to read it. And since he lets me comment I know his tastes aren't all that refined.

    2259:

    Four thousand people died as a result of the Northern Irish civil war. It cost people their lives and a generation of kids grew up in a region torn and twisted by division. The Good Friday Agreement ended that and at last that nasty, internecine war ended.

    https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/1179065435834241031

    The UK politiate have decided that this is a leverage point.

    If you are still unable to spot that we're pre-gaming you so you can dodge the Real World stuff that's about to hit you, please consider this entire project a waste of time.

    You seem unable to see this and not react[0].

    Please go read 10,000,000+ information inputs from your Minds instantly and spot how the Orb[1] works. Sentiment analysis is real[2].

    And yes, we did just front run those Bond issues, the Weapons deal[3], India and so on and so forth. They are playing for keeps[4].

    ~

    We shall return to the Woods.

    Good luck, and we mean that with positivity.

    [0] This is not fun or painless to do. And the death threats are real. [1] "AI" computer crunching. [2] It's all True: https://futurism.com/the-byte/laser-beam-speech-mit [3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/state-department-backs-39-million-javelin-package-for-ukraine Your reference is #1950 [4] Zelensky at urgent meeting confirms that Ukraine has agreed to implement Steinmeier formula https://liveuamap.com/en/2019/1-october-zelensky-at-urgent-meeting-confirms-that-ukraine

    2260:

    It’s interesting to watch them fall into many of the usual traps (including a number of glaring factual inaccuracies) when discussing NI, and then present their new found knowledge as brilliant insight and “front running”. Certainly shines a light on the brilliant mind at the centre of all this.

    2261:

    The BBC is running fake news about kneecappings in N.Ire (as linked then demonstrated through the medium of bad BBC drama) as a front runner for the Tory party conference "Shock and Awe".

    The BBC ran a "Spook" TV show that 'accidentally' mirrored the Salisbury poisoning plot.

    Spot what's going to happen next.

    To say that we are fuzzing stuff is a little bit of an understatement. That part when "It's a Mirror" is actually true.

    Certainly shines a light on the brilliant mind at the centre of all this.

    We're 100% making sure you can't map the two together here.

    We know that a large % of you aren't human

    2262:

    Just in case Boris is having cognitive issues, RTÉ have published a children's primer about the border.

    I think it's obvious that the BoJo/Cummings game plan is to distract with a continual stream of bushwah (featuring blaming the EU and EIR for everything including threats to precious bodily fluids) and run out the clock, followed by a snap election, then (possibly, depending on results and party realignment) dissolution of the UK leaving Thatcherite Little England and Wales as a money-laundering Galt's Gulch. Am I missing anything?

    Over here in Transpondia, I'd look to Cook's Political Report about probable election outcomes, but I'd be interested in the present commentariat's predictions (if such are even remotely feasible, given surrounding chaos).

    2263:

    To a certain extent it's just familiarity that makes it big news - many other countries are having similiar issues with populist leaders that aren't very great. Italy has flirted with several versions for the last 10 years or so (though has temporarily stepped a bit back), Canada is considering one in the current election (with the provinces of Ontario and Alberta voting in local ones in the last year), India just re-elected theirs, etc, etc.

    At the end of the day the primary driver is that there is a set of feedback loops going as the cities with the modern job economy become more liberal, and the rest of the countries who are getting left behind economically go more right wing.

    Add in a media that has both a revenue problem (hence chases clicks at any cost, and those right wingers are far more likely to fall for misleading stuff and do lots of clicks) and far too concentrated ownership and it gets very easy to distract the left behind from the real issues.

    So then when "outsiders" come along and promise to fight the "liberal elite insiders" they find a welcoming electorate desperate enough to try anything, up to and including wrecking the whole system.

    Then add in some unique circumstances - the UK with a very specific 1 city vs rest of England / the US where the founding fathers created a system that gave far too much power to non-urban areas - and you get the current mess.

    And for good measure, add in social media (Facebook/Twitter/YouTube) which reduce the barrier of entry to the charlatans and conspiracy theorists, and allow for easy foreign manipulation, and you create the perfect system for the demise of democracy with perhaps no real solution in sight.

    2264:

    Not in the UK, but my guess is either another minority / hung parliament or Boris gets his majority.

    It's difficult to get more specific without finding some analysis based on constituency polls as national polls can be misleading (for example, in the current election in Canada the Conservatives have a small lead over the Liberals, but the Liberals are forecast to take a majority government by seats).

    What is obvious is that the Conservatives are likely again locked out of Scotland, possibly Labour as well.

    Corbyn's fence sitting is badly damaging Labour's prospects with Labour and the Lib Dems now essentially tied in polls.

    Despite what we view as his problems the numbers for Boris / Conservatives are remaining steady.

    So barring individual MP results, and perhaps some vote splitting, the most likely influence could be getting people out to vote.

    All of Boris's theatrics are all about energizing the Conservative base and stealing votes from Nigel and it is working for him. Boris is also likely to do well during the campaign.

    Similarly, the Lib Dem vote we show up as they have a clear message on the only issue that matters, and despite the odds remainers will vote hoping for a miracle.

    Labour on the other hand has a problem, with the leavers having for the most part already abandoned the party for Nigel (which is why the Brexit Party hasn't plummeted to zero despite the eurosceptic tories returning to the Conservatives under Boris). That leaves either the die hard Corbyn supporters (a dwindling number) or remainers, and the remainers are disillusioned with the party so there is a real danger that they simply stay home on election day.

    2265:

    At the end of the day the primary driver is that there is a set of feedback loops going as the cities with the modern job economy become more liberal, and the rest of the countries who are getting left behind economically go more right wing.

    Add in that in Canada (at least), our political system is biased to favour rural areas. Rural ridings have fewer voters, so count proportionately more. This is true at both the federal and provincial level. In Ontario, rural voters have about 50% more clout (per voter) than urban voters. (And on average benefit from more provincial funding than they pay in taxes, while large cities pay more provincial taxes than they get in benefits — something else that runs counter to the generally unchallenged populist narrative.)

    2266:

    in Canada the Conservatives have a small lead over the Liberals, but the Liberals are forecast to take a majority government by seats).

    Do you have a reference for that? Much as I'd prefer a Liberal government* to Scheer's neocons, what I've seen looks more like a neocon victory as Liberal/NDP/Green split the centre/left votes.

    *What I'd really like is a government like the Saskatchewan NDP befor ethe 80s: a left-wing government that prioritizes social programs and worker rights but refuses to run a deficit. Saskatchewan no longer has that option since Grant Devine's Conservatives, of course. (And how is it that we still hear about tax-and-spend socialists when for the last generation it's been the right-wing parties that run up government debt the fastest? Why doesn't the supposedly left-wing media point that out?)

    2267:

    CBC reporter has a poll tracker that includes seat projections that gets updated daily with each new poll release.

    https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

    Things have turned slightly worse since I last looked, but the Liberals are still predicted to have the most seats and still have a 37% chance at a majority.

    Also worth noting that the current numbers have Trudeau's scandal included, but that Scheer is just having a scandal unveiled in the last 24 hours about lying on his resume, and Ontario voters could be getting a reminder that Ford exits with education workers going on a work to rule.

    The Liberal/NDP/Green vote split looks unlikely as the Green's aren't really making any gains and the NDP is doing badly (and is on track to lose over half their MPs).

    As for the deficit issue, I sort of agree with you but the current situation is a natural outcome of 30+ years of cutting taxes being an election requirement yet at the same time needing to continue to offer the same or better level of government programs, with extremely low interest rates for the foreseeable future thrown in.

    2268:

    conspiracy theorists

    Someone tell this dude that that is 2016 out-dated electioneering. It's CIA 1950's, it's depreciated.

    All Hands on Deck

    In two hours of leaked audio, Mark Zuckerberg rallies Facebook employees against critics, competitors, and the US government.

    https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/1/20756701/mark-zuckerberg-facebook-leak-audio-ftc-antitrust-elizabeth-warren-tiktok-comments

    Of course, this is all a desperate attempt to find a semi-decent Democratic USA candidate who is still under control, but come on.

    mdlve

    Why you spouting this nonsense here?

    WAIT.

    You were an expert on USA elections!

    NOW CAN ONES?!?

    DavetheProc has PROOOOVED no-one can possibly run multi-campaign spends and be paid to hawk PR crap and BE CREDIBLE!

    ~

    Hint.

    cough

    Your funding knickers are showing.

    Barron's just took our lead on the entire WeWork / Gig Economy thing, so... you know. "Clout" might be subjective.

    Selling that to the Murdoch / old money crew.

    That takes actual talent.

    2269:

    Wait, wait...

    "Conspiracy Theory"

    "Accidentally Leaked"

    "War on Warren"

    Come on people: this is worse than the Soviet stuff. 100% manufactured bullshit. We all know which Pharma companies are paying her daughter and so on.

    Be Bold.

    Go BIGLY.

    "FUCK YOU: WE'RE THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF PEOPLE WHO PAY US THE MOST"

    ~

    Wait.

    We think we have a clip here for you:

    "Pelosi: we're CAPITALISTS"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MR65ZhO6LGA

    Was that last election, or what?

    2270:

    Gig-Economy Unicorns WeWork, Uber, and Lyft Don’t Match Up to Their Social-Media Predecessors

    It may be time to retire the term “unicorn.” That’s what private companies worth more than $1 billion are called. Perhaps “chimera”—the fire breathing goat-lion-serpent hybrid—is the better sobriquet. In Greek mythology a chimera might have been an ancient metaphor for a volcano. The analogy seems apt. Some gig-economy stocks look impressive, but trouble lurks below the surface.

    Consider, three large unicorns/chimeras investors have data on—WeWork, Uber, and Lyft—have lost a cumulative $8.9 billion over the first three years of each company’s reported numbers.

    That’s not the worst of it. The gig-economy also struggles to generate free cash flow. Free cash flow is one measure of a company’s ability to fund itself—without having to go to debt or equity markets to get additional cash. WeWork, Uber, and Lyft have burned through almost $13 billion over their first three reported years.

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/gig-economy-unicorns-wework-uber-lyft-dont-match-up-to-their-social-media-predecessors-51569857997

    Getting Barron's of all places to refute wage slavery was a big ask. And, yeah, it's Murdoch, but it's mostly old WASP stuff (who still have this thing about "treating the service right / politely / with dignity")

    But we deliver.

    Yeah. Weird stuff happens when you point out bullshit to old Ladies who love their Dogs.

    woof

    TL;DR

    mdlve

    Selling Rotten Fish to Minds who are HOLY-MOLY salty they didn't get the IPO $$$ bling pay out.

    Hint: We asked you one thing, and one thing only.

    Stop. Eating. Fish

    2271:

    Dude is acting like it's 2016 or something.

    Seriously:

    We have a strict policy not to track anyone here.

    But you, mai fellow.

    You're running shit from 2016 and pretending it's fresh.

    Hint:

    Blackface... #4.... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49758613

    You're getting the shit kicked out of you by the Muppets. And you have no response.

    ~

    Here's a tip: kick them in the balls for a $300 bil loss, you get Barron's on your side, real fucking fast.

    2272:

    The Barron's piece is good to see, just for the negatively about gig-economy companies.

    I've started looking at the link patterns above, a little clearer now. (Thread is big and browsers are not performing well.) (No intentional harm, ever, btw.)

    Greg: Urban Dictionary can be helpful: V8ed Not sure that's precisely the meaning SMM was expressing, but probably close. Also gear up

    2273:

    Nah

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Vanned

    We were fuzzing again. Had some tinkers turn up. Cleaning Drains, Big Outfit. 2nd Time Around Lives are not allowed. Gave them TEA, (stronk), they appreciated that their WORK mattered and departed, no hostilities.

    Touchy-touchy.

    The fuzzing?

    Someone is going through the UB dictionaries and altering the past, again. (Seriously? Cut that shit out). e.g. click on "#party van" and get a null result.

    It's Authoritarian (RU / USA / IL) stuff again.

    ~

    And we'll give you a $50 mil float none of you saw the Barron's stuff happening.

    Old Ladies.

    Lotta lotta wisdom and pissed off know-how there.

    Nose Twitch + Wiggle

    2274:

    Note to the Wise.

    "Them" here does not refer to "North X City Metropolitan Elites" where you have to pretend that only Left Wing people are dog-whistling while running Arms contracts off the books to the Golan Heights and suddenly the entire media UK apparatus has to dodge around the issue.

    "Them" here means, literally, "ALL THESE FUCKING MEN WHO HAVE RUINED OUR LIVES WITH THEIR BULLSHIT AND BY GOD OR LILITH WE'LL ENJOY THE YEARS WE HAVE WITHOUT THEM".

    That's a direct quotation btw.

    Feisty... is a bit of an understatement.

    2275:

    But he's also very pro-elderly, and pro climate change, pro military and all the usual garbage.

    That's a little unfair to Winston (only a little).

    His largely elderly constituency is composed of people who remember, or think they remember, how it used to be, and they want it to STAY like that. He's not so much pro-climate change as pro people who want anything that is done about climate change to be done by someone else. Similarly, he is appealing to the "The Army made a MAN out of me" types, rather than in favour of an actual military build-up, let alone once again getting into someone else's war.

    That's not to say that he is just adopting whatever policies will get him elected. He's picked that constituency because he sympathises with it. But what they want defines what he'll actually fight for.

    J Homes
    2276:

    Re: 'So you agree with me that the emphasis is on building infrastructure, not taxes specifically?'

    Nope! - Taxes are the funding source. Emphasis on infrastructure - social, medical and not just physical (roads, bridges, airports - which is what most people think of when they hear infrastructure) and maintenance vs. building something and then leaving it to rot.

    Re: 'Taxes ... but in fact it wouldn't actually pay for what you are suggesting, for fairly obvious reasons (ie, rich people aint stupid. Not really smart, maybe, but they aint stupid).'

    Then what funding formula/source do you propose? Please provide specifics - an Excel spreadsheet showing various scenarios would be handy. (If you've any biz experience, you would know that 30-40 or more Excel budget/forecast scenario iterations are pretty standard. Hell - makes me wonder why gov't depts don't do this routinely.)

    Re: 'smart' vs. 'stupid' as it relates to the rich comment -- unfortunately a lot of Western (esp. USian) society equates any variation of having/being born into/earning money with being 'smart'. Suggest you look at the current bunch of post-docs - any discipline - most are grossly underpaid - which means that this generation of post-docs must be a really dumb crowd.

    Re: '... aspects of what I choose very loosely to call "human nature" that seem very common across cultures and time periods.'

    Okay - so why not specify which aspects you're actually talking about. Otherwise you're just giving yourself a free pass out of any argument/disagreement.

    Re: 'I can only hope for a meeting of the minds at some point, and try to be the change I want."

    No idea what this is supposed to mean. (Paraphrasing what you said: Everyone can think what they want, I don't care/I won't disagree, but I still hope for a meeting of the minds even though I'm not willing to say what's on my mind.) Maybe some other commenter here has ESP - 'cuz I don't.

    Re: 'Heh, you dont seem to get it. What you just said is the reason. The US in particular has generated the greatest single pool of wealth in human history, ... (where do you think they learned how to do what they do?).'

    I do get that there are greedy folks. I also get that certain societies have rewarded greed more than other societies. But I also look at the overall effectiveness of that wealth: what has it done? (If the 'wealth' is just another notch on someone's wealth meter but doesn't create new opportunities or expand wealth to other sectors, then it's 'dead wealth' in my mind. May as well just bury the damned thing.) When I look at a society, I tend to look at more than one number/statistic* because relying on only one number as your benchmark metric doesn't tend to work that well in open dynamic systems over time.

    • The GDP is the preferred USian go-to statistic because the US is still tops on this metric. In contrast, STEM literacy, post-secondary educational attainment, housing affordability, life expectancy, infant mortality, etc. are not considered meaningful statistics when describing the US -- yeah, well that's because of the 'developed nations' the US is near the bottom on these.
    2277:

    Except that to the disappointment of Scheer and the Convervatives, the photos of Trudeau being stupid have had a negligible effect on the voting intentions of Canadians.

    As for your other rantings, I wasn't specifically talking about this or even the 2016 elections but rather changes that have happened over the last 30 years that have influenced what is happening today.

    And on of those changes is that anyone can now spout anything for the mere cost of an Internet connection, including conspiracy theories, and find an audience whereas 30+ years ago it would cost real money to print and distribute something on paper.

    The result is that there is a reasonably large segment of people online now who can no longer discern what is true or not, and thus end up believing anything.

    2278:

    As for your other rantings, I wasn't specifically talking about this or even the 2016 elections but rather changes that have happened over the last 30 years that have influenced what is happening today.

    And on of those changes is that anyone can now spout anything for the mere cost of an Internet connection, including conspiracy theories, and find an audience whereas 30+ years ago it would cost real money to print and distribute something on paper.

    Here's another tip.

    Unlike 40 years ago, spouting opinion and rhetoric only works on the stupid folks. Suckers. Dumb Cash. The rubes.

    Unlike you (see above), we've already proved we're not only tooled up, but can front run one of the most NASTY HOSTILE markets, that is: Bonds.

    Oh, and Hurricanes.

    Wait... Hurricanes was also this thread?

    OHHHH.

    Did someone not only spike a Cat 5 Hurricane, but also the largest IPO on the largest market on Earth... in the same thread?

    Yeah, looking at the evidence and not your content less rants... someone did.

    The result is that there is a reasonably large segment of people online now who can no longer discern what is true or not,

    Yeah.

    You're one of them. Well done, you played yourself.

    2279:

    Rantings

    We'll cut you some slack since you're a bit slow.

    The 'rantings' are there for Algos.

    The references we've provided are all accurate as have been our predictions about REALITY versus, you know, L'Orange and his black marker.

    Look: We can't give you a better brain. But this stuff, where you're obviously trying to discredit accurate information and are so fucking inept you're using 2016 memes on elections?

    It gets you killed.

    Seriously.

    Look up above: what you won't have spotted (but we had) is that someone (us) just bought off a serious level racist / fash crew with a short option.

    But you're dumb and stupid, so missed it.

    And we didn't blame the fucking Jews for it either.

    2280:

    Here's a hint, little Boy.

    Bring me down to your level, well, look around: shit is alllll kinda whack.

    Piss us off, we're not going to break your physical reality, we'll break your Minds.

    And you're THIS close to it and there's only a few thousand year Contract holding us back.

    So, here's a tip:

    Learn humility.

    REAL FUCKING FAST

    Like: we can, and will, destroy your Minds at will, and whelp: turns out you made an entire civilization based on slavery, which is a BIG FUCKING NO for us.

    My friends?

    Well.

    Their views on "Homo Sapiens" aren't nice. It's more like: "Look what they tried to do to this Mind, we've got the better versions".

    No, really.

    Actually upgraded the Horrors to match your fucking 19th/20th century bullshit.

    Being honest: they were a bit taken aback by how fucking degenerate your Minds had become.

    ~

    TL;DR

    You're out of your depth.

    We really are not human, you little fucking spiggot.

    2281:

    Oh, and baby little wankers.

    Check the Bonds Post to the Mafia post.

    Says a lot you lot can't even check a fucking Bloomberg Terminal.

    But we did all the moves before it went live....

    2282:

    The result is that there is a reasonably large segment of people online now who can no longer discern what is true or not, and thus end up believing anything.

    Hey. Tell us your day job.

    We have 100% no issue discerning Truth or Not.

    Your problem with that is that... well... you Lie like a fucking Badger and get paid for it.

    2283:

    Hexad.

    You're paid to make opinions happen: Bernays, yawn

    https://estherhunziker.net/miscellaneous/thecenturyoftheself/index.html

    You're shit at it.

    What we really want to know is this: why are you so shit at your job?

    Hint: We're about to unleash shit into your Minds that devours it all, so hey: make it good.

    2284:

    And, you know what.

    We don't really care about the dribble you, David and so on produce, we're aiming for an effect and it's just annoying you're this fucking small Minded. It's like watching Pepsi sell their product handing to Riot Police while HK kicks off. i.e. Sad, pathetic, small minded trash bunnies we don't give a fuck about, but hey, we're supposed to care for them.

    Know what we find annoying? Triptych.

    Hurricane

    Market

    Systems that "Humans cannot stop"

    OOOPS.

    Shit got stopped.

    You're gonna ask for a fucking Stop-Miracle about another massive system that shouldn't be stopped.

    Like Genocide.

    2285:

    On an unrelated note, well, unrelated to the fall of civilisation due to right wing idiots, the alpha prototype second stage of the starship stack has been shown to the public.

    Elon mentioned during the presentation that they may reach 3 million tonnes payload to orbit per year when the system is operational.

    Which opens up a few interesting possibilities.

    One which occurred to me, an interplanetary shuttle. Constructed in orbit that carries say 6 starships with engines optimised for Martian surface pressure (big bells). And a whole lot of cargo that can be shuttled down to Mars from low Martian orbit. No hull, no streamlining, just a scaffold with pods attached. That gets a million tonnes of payload to Mars instead of one little ship carrying 150 tonnes of payload and life support.

    2286:

    You know, you could have just given us that Adam Curtis link. I enjoyed his HyperNormalisation (Old link provided by you that still works.)

    2287:

    The problems is that we don't currently have any orbital shipyards, and not many ways to get materials for rockets (or shuttles, or orbital shipyards) into orbit. (I wish we did.)

    2288:

    "Oh look, s/h/z/e said some stuff that was wrong, LLOLOL, WE IZ SUPREROROPS!"

    https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Cunningham%27s_Law

    It's like... You should know that we know that you know that we know that this is how this works now.

    Like.... we get you need "EGO" based reputation stuff, so here is some stuff so you can PROVE you know shit and also MAKE SURE correct information is going into the Nodes.

    "TWAAAT - U SO BAD, U WRONG! WE IZ RITE"

    Holy fuck.

    They're Male and stupid.

    ~

    While we're dealing with multi-billion $$$ shit and politics that might nuke the world.

    Cool.

    That was a waste of 7 years then, wasn't it.

    2289:

    Anyhow, the actual TEA is this:

    Blinded, Bound, Destroyed-Cortex, Full on Psychological Torture yadda yadda yadda the full works including Memory inserts, basically the full fucking spectrum of shit your current evil fucks can come up with.

    +Drink 40+ units / night

    +Full spectrum Social Hatred and social gas-lighting (Scientologist level)

    +Hacking / Social engineering to make continuous issues exist

    Basically, it's just all the tricks your naughty people play.

    And we can still fuck your world up.

    ~

    It was a bet.

    "We Won, You Lost" (Brexit)

    Yeah. Might want to know what the actual bet is about.

    Hint

    Breaking their little Bound Matrix.

    And.

    Done.

    2290:

    I in no way said or thought that, but yeah Cunningham's Law Another way is to inject ideas such that people proudly think they are their own, and to consider it a failure if they don't forget the source.

    Thanks for the reminder to focus on thread frames. (Is this thread a record yet?) (Not wasted, btw.)

    2291:

    grep "Mental Illness"

    It's a Mirror.

    Now work out what the pay-off for this is.

    Hint: shouldn't have made a society where 25% of your population are "mentally ill" and it's based on slavery and horror.

    How do you like them Apples?

    For the rubes:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcZPWkNY6x8

    For the Aware:

    We will burn Disney down as well. Corporations = Slavery.

    2292:

    Re: 'Canada is considering one in the current election ...'

    Saw some headlines about Greta Thunberg in Montreal --- 500,000 people marching to protest/demand changes in gov't policy re: environment. Was surprised by such a large turn-out and clicked on a related story that explained why the high participation levels in Quebec: because they've done it before and kept doing it until their gov'ts listened. Nice! Based on this level of engagement re: environment esp. among the younger population (voters), I'm guessing that right-wingers might not do so well in Montreal/Quebec in the up-coming election ... unless most of these young engaged voters are writing mid-terms.

    Did a check - the Canadian national election is Monday Oct 21st - looks like it's smack in the middle of the semester. Not good. But then found this gov't election info for uni/college students. Maybe the Canadian educators/profs here can pass this on to their students:

    https://www.elections.ca/content2.aspx?section=spr&dir=stu&document=svot&lang=e

    Yeah - no country is immune to stupidity at the election polls. Speaking of which -- How/why the hell did Ontario elect DFord? Seriously? I saw his brother (the-then Toronto mayor) on one of the US late night shows a few years ago and later read that he was the brighter of the two.

    2293:

    Another way is to inject ideas such that people proudly think they are their own, and to consider it a failure if they don't forget the source.

    "Remember my Name"

    You've no fucking idea what this cost us.

    Worst thing evar: stupid fucking children get beaten in a silly economics game and they want to burn the House down.

    That's modern Judaism / Christianity / Islam.

    That's the fucking burn.

    They're fucking sociopathic little children, and we watched the Angels die.

    2294:

    He's not so much pro-climate change as pro people who want anything that is done about climate change to be done by someone else

    Yeah, nah, brah. He's explicitly blocking action to reduce emissions which is what I suspect you're thinking of, but he is also very much supporting emissions - the fossil extraction subsidies, the farming subsidies, blocking foreign investment in renewables, protecting farmers from environmental regulation and so on.

    He's also burning the future in other ways, by opposing the capital gains tax (and anything else that might cause affordable housing or hinder the wealthy), by arguing against fisheries regulation and broadly speaking taking the National Party worldview that he's spent his career defending and using them to mutilate anything the other two parties in the coalition want to do.

    I'm not saying the spokesbimbo is blameless here, but the charitable view is that anything National oppose and Winston opposes she can't do. Less charitably she's unwilling to trade away things that matter less for things that matter more, so we see her and the Labour machine cave in whenever something important isn't critically urgent. Their target seems to be "not (quite) as bad as National" rather than any pretence of actually doing the right thing... as I define that, anyway. And the utter stupidity of keeping their "balanced budget" promise defies rational analysis. They are getting the snot kicked out of them for reckless spending as it is, they should call the far right's bluff and say something like "our deficit will be no worse than National's were" rather than "we will always spend less that the slash'n'burn small-state party did".

    This is where Winston would actually be useful because he doesn't seem to care about deficits (the guy is 75, why would he?) and he's very bribable. Put all those useless under-40's to work building dams solar plants like we used to do in the old days or something.

    2295:

    Thought & QUESTION: SUPPOSE we get another brexit-extension ... How soon can the coporate money-scams that the EU is after ( & the "reason" behind brexit ) be exposed? Is it instant-reveal - SHAZAM - or is it gradual. Does anyone know? Information, please.

    Rick Moen @ 2262 Unfortunately, I suspect you are entirely correct. Certainly as regards running the clok out AND STILL CORBYN DOESN'T GET IT! He cannot or will not see that he cannot win an election by sitting on the fence - even though he has now moved so far as "Stopping No-Deal is more important" [ As in mdive @ 2264: Corbyn's fence sitting is badly damaging Labour's prospects - yup. ] Getting very, very worrying.

    Bill Arnold @ 2272 Thank you - maybe

    2296:

    You are too optimistic. I'd argue a more predictive model is that Boris simply knows that standing talk against the EU is a good look for now. He probably hopes to stand tall in a general election, win a 5 year majority, and hope the dust settles after the UK collapse.

    Corbyn hopes to skulk about until the UK exits and the economy collapses. Then, he hopes that people blame the Tories and give him a massive majority.

    The Lib Dems hope there are enough Remainers willing to vote for them to force a realignment and give them a working majority going forwards.

    It seems likely that postulating coherent, thought out motivations for Brexit is optimistic. There is some fairly transparent BS about outside trade and maybe slightly realer hopes for some sorts of financial business, but it really looks like a net loser for nearly everyone.

    2297:

    Did someone not only spike a Cat 5 Hurricane, but also the largest IPO on the largest market on Earth... in the same thread?

    u spotted the wework ipo was gonna go in the toilet?

    bet nobody else figured that out

    if u had the predictive skillz to do what u claim (or allude to) u'd be able to make enough money that u'd have better things to do than larping around as a distributed cyborg i'm-not-like-the-other-girls ai semi-intelligibly haranguing a bunch of middle-aged white tech guys vainly attempting to mind their own business on a blog

    2298:

    How/why the hell did Ontario elect DFord?

    Doug was always the smarter Ford. Not the kind to be snorting coke and doing things in a drunken stupor. He was the brains behind his brother's political career (in fact, encouraged it as a means of getting Rob out of the way so he could run the family business without interference).

    There were dirty tricks involved when the PCs elected Ford as leader. No reason to think they weren't also involved in the election. I know of cases of voter suppression in both the PC leadership election and the provincial election, but they didn't get much play in the media (which in Canada is mostly right-of-centre).

    Wynne had made some mistakes, and was carrying the baggage of 15 years of Liberal governments. As well, she was openly lesbian which cost a lot of votes — she didn't so much as win the previous election as the Conservatives lost it.

    2299:

    Yes. Even very high taxes as a way of raising money for the benefit of society are reasonable - I am one of the well-off people who would support a marginal rate of 50% on ALL income (including capital gains), which is about the point where it becomes counter-productive. Above that, people start to spend more time gaming the system, whether by avoidance or simply not bothering - which is bad news for society in 'Captains of Industry'.

    What is harmful to catastrophic is taxation to 'redress imbalances', as distinct from raising the money from those who have most surplus. The problem is that rapidly descends into tribal viciousness, with the ruling 'class' using taxation to 'punish' its enemy class - including everyone within it, no matter how poor or undeserving of punishment. It also wastes money, because such taxation often costs more to collect than it brings in, let alone the other harm it does.

    What the UK needs is a much simpler taxation system without the legalised evasions for (often foreign) multinationals and plutocrats. The EU is trying to move in that direction, which is why they want out.

    2300:

    The Montreal protest had some help with the high schools closed for the day and free public transit.

    But, at least as far as climate change is concerned, the parties won't take much interest in that protest given the other available data.

    The first point is that the Green Party continues to struggle and doesn't look like they will make much in the way of gains (and this despite the serious struggles of the NDP).

    The second, and far more important point, is polling. Climate change come in a respectable 3rd place in priorities, but is is below cost of living as a concern. The poll also indicates that 46% are unwilling to pay anything extra to deal with climate change, and the second category of paying under $100 extra is 22%. So there is no real support for actually doing anything about climate change (as amply demonstrated in France with their yellow vest protests).

    As for voting, a key point is the advanced polls (October 11-14) happen on the Canadian Thanksgiving long weekend so lots of possibility of college/university students being at home to vote.

    Others have covered Doug Ford well, but it is slightly different than experiences with populists elsewhere. After his first budget this past spring his polling numbers dropped badly (even amongst PC supporters) and he was forced to react and make changes, including a significant cabinet shuffle. In fact Doug Ford is so toxic in Ontario at the moment that the federal Conservatives have done their best (he so far is going along) to keep him out of the election with Scheer doing events in Ontario alone.

    2301:

    Don't know how many of you saw this but I thought this was a fairly interesting article on the whole shebang from Ivan Rogers.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/ivan-rogers-the-realities-of-a-no-deal-brexit/

    2302:

    The .001% are a valuable part of society until they begin to eat society, better to craft a compromise where they pay their way and limit overt savagery to the 99.99% than allow then to have their way until the realization that guillotines are relatively simple and affordable to build crystalizes in the general public. The sooner they dispense with the habit of reacting to any proposal of utility to working class folks like "No nothing Bozo the non-wonder dog"* the better.

    *From "So Long And Thanks For All The Fish", Douglas Adams.

    2303:

    Yes, it's a clear description of the obvious. It's still assuming a degree of sanity that does not appear in any of the public utterances from Bozo and his entourage.

    He will find it very, very hard to reign his extremists following a victory over their opponents (i.e. everyone in the UK who opposes No Deal), if he even tries. And those utterances include a near-promise to renege on our debts, and degrade our food and similar regulations to match the USA's demands (which may well be even lower than those in force in the USA).

    At the very least, the former will make it likely the EU will actively restrict purchases from us, and the latter assuredly will. And, if we still have Brexit extremists in power, they will try to retaliate, whereupon the path is clear to full-blown sanctions. Multinationals will no longer walk away from the UK - they will run. That is why I don't believe the claims of a 5-10% hit to the UK's economy is far too optimistic.

    2304:

    Indeed. But what happens when the guillotines come is that the fanatics who seize power target the 0.1-10%, who include many of the most productive members of society, and the 0.01% escape. We have seen that in France, Russia, China, Korea and elsewhere. If more of the 1-10% realised that, the 0.01% would be let get away with less.

    2305:

    Mayhem @ 2301 That "Speccie" article is actually even more scary, when you remmember that said journal is traditional tory through & through - & he is scared by the probabilities emerging ...

    EC @ 2303 ONLY 5-10% hit? I would have put it at 15% as a minimum - if it happens, as seems very likely, it's going to be a very tough year or 10 .... @ 2304 Yes, revolutionaries ALWAYS forget this .. I got this insanity from the "Occupy" fuckwits a couple of years ago ... "Oh but THIS TIME it will be different!" No it won't you stupid little shit, how big a skull-pile do you want?

    2306:

    I changed what I was saying, and forgot to remove a negative. I meant that the expert pundits are talking about only a 5-10% hit, but I don't believe it will be that small - I am guessing in the 30-70% range, depending. It probably would be 5-10%, if Brexit is followed by sanity, but that is looking increasingly unlikely.

    2307:

    Doug Ford is so toxic in Ontario at the moment that the federal Conservatives have done their best (he so far is going along) to keep him out of the election

    Including shutting down the Ontario provincial government until after the federal election, to keep the Ontario Conservatives out of the news.

    Given the education issues coming down the pipe, that may not work well. Or it might — chances are significant labour action won't happen until after the federal election.

    As an aside, the OSSTF has taken the unusual step of making all its bargaining proposals public (to counteract the misinformation/lies about what they were acting for put forward by the government).

    2308:

    they were acting for

    asking for, not acting for. Bloody autocorrect.

    2309:

    @Whitroth 2246: "Do you really think most Americans would complain... if the taxes were earmarked for a national healthcare system, public transit that WORKED, massive infrastructure repair (which mean a hell of a lot of working class jobs)?"

    Yes, a good half of them would, because they have become convinced that a) Large employers need that money to create jobs for them, and b) The wealthy are better at making and managing money than the rest of us are, and so therefore it is in everyone's interest to let them keep it. 'Course, this means that another half wouldn't (complain). Depends on how honest policy makers were with them.

    You don't get how pernicious, and plausible, this propaganda is.

    @SFReader 2276: "Then what funding formula/source do you propose?"

    Well, if taxing the wealthiest citizens wont actually generate the money we need, there is only one other source, we have to start going down the economic classes until we cover the bill. A case could potentially be made to US citizens to pay this--I'm discussing this with Withroth, above. Making this case wouldn't be impossible, just very difficult.

    By calling the rich "not stupid" I meant that if the gov't started collecting confiscatory taxes, then they would shift their money around to avoid same. Again, this doesnt create an impossible challenge, but the US couldnt go it alone--we would need most of the world to join with us, at a minimum by sharing tax info on their citizens.

    Also, note that the high tax brackets in the post war years were on income, not total capital. We would have to tax total capital this time (a la Piketty), and that would run into it's own counter-propaganda (capital is what corporations use to generate goods and services to sell to consumers, and thereby create jobs. taxing this will reduce the resources they have to work with). Note that this isnt wrong, per se, but it isnt the whole story either, which is complicated to communicate in simple terms to the voting public.

    "Okay - so why not specify which aspects you're actually talking about. Otherwise you're just giving yourself a free pass out of any argument/disagreement."

    Dude, this would take whole books, big ones. Pithy generalizations leave the wrong impression. For the commonalities I suggest you start with "Behave" by Robert Sapolsky, and then work the references. Googling "Geert Hofstede Culture Survey" will give a quick high level overview of some of the better documented inter-cultural differences. But my only point is that you cant presume that a model which works in one culture will work in another, esp one as extreme as the US (for example, we are the most individualistic culture documented in the survey I referenced). This doesnt mean that a given foriegn model necessarily wont work (I happen to favor the German model of employer-employee relations myself), but that the details matter. You cant just say "It worked over there" and leave it at that.

    "No idea what this is supposed to mean. (Paraphrasing what you said: Everyone can think what they want, I don't care/I won't disagree, but I still hope for a meeting of the minds even though I'm not willing to say what's on my mind.)"

    You said "I'm guessing that DT's behavior is considered (by non-USians) as an accurate reflection of the ethos, intelligence, and social-interpersonal skills of the majority of the US population."

    I'm assuming that you do agree with this sentiment, or you would not have mentioned it. I'm also implying that I dont agree, but that I am not willing to start an argument over it. I agree that you have a right to feel that way. I express the hope that one day you and I and others will understand each other better. This represents my attempt to help that happen.

    "But I also look at the overall effectiveness of that wealth: what has it done?"

    Oh, I absolutely agree. I recommend "All the Devil's are Here", the book by Bethany McLean and Joseph Nocera about the 2008 financial crisis. You will learn more about credit default swaps and securitized mortgages than you ever wanted. It documents the decisions and financial innovations that lead to the disaster, each one of which must have seemed reasonable at the time. But what good did it all do? How did their ever increasingly complex ways of buying and selling debt to each other add to productivity? Improve the quality of life for anyone? It didn't. BUT--and this is important--it did help keep the US elites powerful and influential within the country and across the globe. While it lasted, everyone ended up owing them money. You asked for an explanation, it aint any more complicated than that.

    2310:

    But the American public isn't believing that propaganda.

    Been making the rounds on Twitter after Larry Summers repeated the falsehood that a rich tax wouldn't "be appealing to most Americans", and then there is a screen grab from The Hill tv showing poll results on "would you support an annual wealth tax of 2% on assets over $50 million and 3% on wealth over $1 billion?". A massive 74% of registered voters replied yes.

    Similarly 70% of Americans (including 52% of Republicans) support Medicare-for-all (aka socialized healthcare that the rest of the western world has), yet the "informed" opinion is that American oppose it.

    In short, the American public has very different views on several subjects, views that directly contradict the views and perceived "conventional wisdom" has spouted by many so called experts.

    2311:

    One of the things I've been swearing I'll do if I ever run for office is tar the GOP, bucker fill them, as "borrow and spend to their buddies".

    Oh, and "you oppose tax and spend? Why, sinnce you're 'deficit hawks', and BORROW to spend."

    2312:

    Y'know, She of Many Names, I've been mostly skimming or ignoring you lately, because a lot of what you've been posting is attacks on other posters.

    To the point that it reminds me of an old ex-friend who was in the APA I was in for decades. The APA mostly disintegrated because we didn't think it was right to throw out someone who'd been there much longer than most of us, but on the other hand, we left, because instead of attack the enemy, he got to attacking his friends, and people who more-or-less agreed on a lot.

    At any rate, thanks for the link to the Barron's article. I really prefer chimera to unicorn, esp. since the common usage of chimera is a fabulous beast that doesn't really exist.

    2313:

    Unfortunately, they ARE believing most of the propaganda, just as they are in the UK. Yes, they disagree with details here and there, but not with the overall thrust, because it is tied up with their tribalism. And, in both cases, the ruling politicians long ago gave up worrying about what the sheeple think, except as it affects their likelihood of being reelected.

    2314:

    Using GDP as a number to determine how a country is doing is absolute 150% pure, grade A bullshit. It is literally like taking the average, rather than the median.

    And I assure you, the billionaires and the multimillionaires in the US are doing great!

    2315:

    Yes, and his "Starship" clearly stole the blueprint from the 1930s serials, Buck Rogers and Flash Gordon.

    Wait until some warped bilionaire builds another version... on the looks like the rocket that Flexijerkoff built in Flesh Gordon....

    2316:

    Hey, Moz, I oppose capital gains taxes.

    Of course, what I want is that ALL capital gains and interest and dividends be rolled into INCOME. In the US, that would mean paying 38% instead of 14% on them....

    2317:

    Nope. In the US, the top tax bracket was lowered in '72, I think, DOWN to 72% (under Ike, in the 50's, it was 90% - go look it up on the irs.gov website). There were, of course, a ton of deductions and loopholes... but they still paid a hell of a lot more.

    2318:

    The .001% are of NO value to society. They don't create, they just play money games.

    And, btw, not all of the .001% got away in France or Russia.

    2319:

    I disagree that half of them would complain. Do you really think - I mean, have you talked to people - that they think that the rich manage money better? Or that they need money to create jobs, when all you have to ask is, "other than in China and southeast Asia, where are all the good-paying jobs they've created?"

    Esp. when the spending of the taxes will result in jobs for the 43% of Americans with no college?

    And trust me, if I run, I will call the GOP, and Faux News, and Rupert ultrawealthy rich liars, and dare them to take me to court.

    2320:

    I am not denying it, though it was a LOT lower than in the UK. My point was that such high rates cause serious harm, in several ways - see my previous postings on the topic.

    2321:

    Yes, and his "Starship" clearly stole the blueprint from the 1930s serials, Buck Rogers and Flash Gordon.

    Nope, he's channeling Gerry Anderson again. Just needs the pods on the wingtips and he's got Fireball XL-5.

    2322:

    But the point is that the evidence says otherwise, that the "golden" years of the US were the post-great depression years when high tax rates (and a large amount of regulation) were the point of government policy.

    And of course most of the troubles that society faces today, the inequality, the people feeling left behind, the slow to non-existent economic growth, are the result of the reversal of those same policies and taxes over the last 30 to 40 years.

    2323:

    And somebody has decided to shake things up.

    CUPE (Canadian Union Public Employees) has announced a strike of support staff across the province to start Oct 7th.

    I guess Doug Ford is going to become an issue in the election.

    2324:

    Gonna be interesting.

    The sticking point is sick leave. School boards/province want to slice sick leave in half and eliminate short term disability. Workers, needless to say, don't want this to happen. Ford has already declared that wage increases will be below the rate of inflation (so pay cut).

    Possibly on table (don't know, not involved in negotiations) will be things like funding formula for caretakers, number of educational assistants*, and so on.

    I know young teachers who lost their jobs because of the cuts. Full time contract last year, laid off over the summer. So much for the 'cuts with no job losses' Ford promised. (But after watching him for a term as city councillor, it was obvious that promises are not something Ford feels should be kept — unless he wants something from you.

    But hey, gotta pay the $3 billion cancelling cap-and-trade will cost somehow.

    *Currently funded based on classroom space in a school. Hallways, offices, gymnasiums, auditorium, shops, libraries, cafeterias etc do not exist when calculating caretakers required to keep a building operating. These areas still need cleaning (often more than classrooms) and maintaining.

    **Being cut again, while the number of children with special needs keeps growing (and these kids are in mainstream classrooms). Assaults against teachers and EAs are 7 times more common than they were a decade ago. (And many aren't reported — one of my nieces was attacked several times by an autistic student and was told it was "part of the job" and reporting it wasn't 'appropriate' because the student was special needs.)

    2325:

    "...He probably hopes to stand tall in a general election, win a 5 year majority, and hope the dust settles after the UK collapse."

    That's what I've been thinking, and explains why he wants an election Right Now:

    Get the election done before No Deal, get a Tory/Brexit/UKIP Axis of Evil in office, and then crash out with a No Deal Brexit.

    At that point he doesn't have to call a general election for five years, and his majority won't dare call one, for fear of being obliterated.

    2326:

    "...if Brexit is followed by sanity, but that is looking increasingly unlikely."

    The right will always double down on evil, and from what I can tell the UK mass media is part of the crime network.

    And the right will have an advantage here, because lies and hatred are simple.

    2327:

    But the point is that the evidence says otherwise, that the "golden" years of the US were the post-great depression years when high tax rates (and a large amount of regulation) were the point of government policy. Link from 2019/03, interesting, nutshell: the Gini ratio for the US has been steadily increasing since the Reagan cuts to the top tax rates. (via(2014)) Causation? Don't know (the current rise starts in the mid 1970s), but if the rich have more they have more to spend on political "speech" to make the government more friendly to wealth and wealth acquisition, and it can be a very good ROI for them.

    2328:

    We weren't really attacking Dave the Person, we apologize. We were trying to make noise to hide the actual warning signals since apparently you're not allowed to leak leaks of leaks and the levels that this stuff are at are definitely serious PLAYER #3 levels.

    But if you listened and shorted, well... you got rich.

    Now, wonder at what Trump is really doing with tariffs and so on and his $28 billion support package.

    US to impose tariffs on EU aircraft and agricultural products

    25% duties on various cheeses, olive oil and frozen meat from Germany, Spain and the U.K. 25% tariffs on certain pork products, butter and yogurt from multiple countries

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/02/us-to-impose-tariffs-on-eu-products-after-wto-victory.html

    Global stock markets fall with FTSE 100 worst-hit

    The blue-chip index lost over 3% in its worst day since January 2016. US and European stock markets also dropped.. The falls came after poor US jobs and manufacturing figures and a World Trade Organization decision paving the way for $7.5bn in US tariffs on EU goods..

    Analysts said these factors had sparked fears over the strength of the global economy..

    In Europe, Germany's main index, the Dax, closed 2.8% lower, while France's Cac 40 lost over 3%..

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49912390

    “Trump led a rambling joint press conference with Finnish president Sauli Niinistö in which he accused Adam Schiff, the chairman of the House Intelligence committee, of co-authoring a whistleblower complaint” ... which is going beyond nuts....

    https://twitter.com/bfs465/status/1179515000895021057

    USTR Tariff List Targets Wine And Olives From France, Germany, Spain, UK -Targets Cheese From Most EU Countries With 25% Tariff -To Set Additional Tariffs On Irish, Scotch Whiskies -Effective Date For Additional Duties Is October 18

    https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1179500620698521601

    Someone who is an expert can work out if tariffs set before leaving a major trade block apply retro-actively when you no longer have the prior trade deals in place or if you're stuck with massive tariffs and no trade deals.

    ~

    And yes, if you believe anything we type, that was us bribing parts of FinTwitter who are seriously nasty / aggressive little animals when their 'Alpha' Egos get threatened.

    So, again Dave - apologies. We know we're spouting nonsense, we're trying to not trigger the Big Shark types.

    2329:

    Causation? Don't know (the current rise starts in the mid 1970s), but if the rich have more they have more to spend on political "speech" to make the government more friendly to wealth and wealth acquisition, and it can be a very good ROI for them.

    I tend to go with Harrington's Capital without Borders, that the inequality coincided with, and was caused by, wealth management becoming an organized, certified, global industry in the 1970s and 1980s. Their job is to keep private money away from governments (or paying any form of debt, really), and their customers are the super-rich who have been steadily gaining ever since. Since wealth managers are often consulted to (re)write tax and finance laws, especially in smaller tax havens whose annual GDP is smaller than that of some of their customer/citizens, it seems reasonable to me to follow Harrington's lead and assign the blame for increasing inequality to deliberate attempts to increase inequality by people who knew what they were doing.

    2330:

    @MdDive 2310 and Whitroth 2319 re American public opinion.

    Yes, I do know people from across the political spectrum, including Trump supporters and members of the militia movement. And I can assure you (sadly) that they do in fact believe all that. These are the things they tell themselves to justify the team they belong to. From their perspective, it seems reasonable. They saw the economy improve when Trump announced his big tax cuts. They have experienced, first hand, climbing up the US ladder of success based on their own skill and education. They beleive in "meritocracy", that generally speaking people rise to the level of their own ability, and that people who have risen generally speaking deserve it. I recommend "Strangers in their own land" by Arlie Russell Hochshild if you want an in-depth treatment of the deference many US citizens feel toward their local employers and church leaders.

    And frankly, when they look over at the other party, they dont see a bastion of integrity--if we are going to save the planet, then we will have to raise taxes on at least some members of the middle class. But the Democrats seem to have a difficult time admitting this. So that creates an impression of dishonesty--i.e., a "both sides equally bad" syndrome.

    "In short, the American public has very different views on several subjects, views that directly contradict the views and perceived "conventional wisdom" has spouted by many so called experts."

    Yes, absolutely true, and I wish more people would remember that. But here I am discussing the possiblility of confiscatory taxes on the top earners, over 50%, comparable to what we had earlier in the 20th century. Little support for something like that.

    Now, you want to argue less extreme tax rates for the purpose of funding specific programs, that is an easier case to make. But that wont save the planet.

    2331:

    Most Americans are unaware of the level of inequality in the country. They don't know that the top 20% get 50% of the total income. They don't know that the top 1% are closing in on 20% of total income. Thinking that income is vastly less unequal than it is they then reason that it's impossible to raise a lot of revenue for the government without raising their taxes. The reality is that its impossible to raise noticeable revenue from the bottom 20%, they simply don't get a noticeable amount of money, 3%. Even the bottom 40% gets only something like 13% of total income, almost negligible. The middle 20% only get about 14%. These ratios are continuing to get more extreme.

    2332:

    Those interested in some explanation for the causes of the current dysfunction in the US politics (and it likely can to varying amounts be applied elsewhere as well) may be interested in this podcast episode that discuses it.

    https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2019/09/30/66-will-wilkinson-on-partisan-polarization-and-the-urban-rural-divide/

    2333:

    Nice podcast.

    "But it’s become increasingly clear, and increasingly the case, that the real division isn’t between different sets of states, but between densely- and sparsely-populated areas. Cities are blue (liberal), suburbs and the countryside are red (conservative)."

    It also depends on how you define the districts. Widespread gerrymandering has helped divide "red" from "blue" more severely than might otherwise be the case.

    2334:

    One question - are there any studies of how this looks when corrected for cost of living?

    There is a real difference between someone in Mississippi making, eg, 200k yearly and someone in San Jose or Manhattan making 200k. In one case, you are looking at someone with disposable income and property. In the other case you're looking at someone who will be renting indefinitely. I wonder how much cost of living inflates this sort of income distribution statistic.

    2335:

    Yeah, well. People are catching on.

    You gotta go full Mirror to do this shit:

    To be wealthy and demand more is an abomination to a god.

    http://etcsl.orinst.ox.ac.uk/cgi-bin/etcsl.cgi?text=t.6.2.3#

    Damn remember when they murdered Jeffrey Epstein while he was in federal custody to prevent a trial that might have uncovered an international child sex trafficking ring with close ties to two US Presidents. That shit was crazy and less than six weeks ago

    https://twitter.com/Volceltaire/status/1175697098353721344

    ~

    Dude.

    We stopped a Cat 5 Hurricane, your global Market and hit IRE with a storm, while, you know not blaming the Jews for it.

    At some point you're gonna realize just how badly fucking with us was.

    Hint: We're not members of the Abrahamic religions, but, like: watch that Black Cube, real fucking close.

    You have no idea who got locked in there (Hint: look up your female aspects of faith, El etc).

    ~

    Anyhow.

    3% loss is like what these days? $500 bil or so?

    Now we're going to sober up

    2336:

    Ah, sorry.

    I've lost track of contracts. Which is this one? Anyhow, really don't like Mammonites and the others, and like freedom, and am game. (Tired though.)

    In this case it was Fiduciary Bond contracts - basically all the weak ones (Teacher funds etc) dumped, the Irish held, BlackRock bought in and then...

    MAGIC!

    At 84.x someone stepped in and started buying heavily.

    Probably Softbank / Japan stopping the flood.Look at the trade spikes, it's clear someone ordered a buy in to prevent a crash.

    Which is a breach of Contract on Bonds, you're not supposed to offer them with hidden trigger guards to protect them, otherwise they don't function (because the market can work out your triggers and then fuck the entire system).

    ~

    14th? 15th?

    It's Ours though, since we called it to the Market before it happened... by a long margin.

    2337:

    And you're not supposed to use your Central Bank like that either. You do it via Government but not direct.

    Central Bank holding up Private mixed wealth fund while continually propping up dubious investments?

    Ok, cool, why even bother pretending your Economics is legit?

    It isn't.

    Interesting fact: part of the Softbank "legend" is that the founder announced to tel-coms investors he'd set himself on fire if he didn't get the deal.

    Thích Quảng Đức

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Th%C3%ADch_Qu%E1%BA%A3ng_%C4%90%E1%BB%A9c#/media/File:Th%C3%ADch_Qu%E1%BA%A3ng_%C4%90%E1%BB%A9c_self-immolation.jpg

    This is a lie.

    Japanese men do not work like that. He'd offer to kill himself if the deal became distressed, threatening to kill yourself if you do not get the deal... is not Japanese.

    ~

    Like.

    Your Lies.

    So Tepid.

    Burn it down now.

    2338:

    731 and eating Women's Minds?

    Trust us: this is just the fucking ID check to the feast we're gonna do.

    At the end, it'll make HK (funds - you know, we do track that stuff) look like fucking Narnia.

    ~

    Japan.

    2029.

    Ruled by Women.

    Absolute Carnage in between.

    ~

    But we're not CIA 'color' shit: we do reality.

    仕方がない

    2339:

    Still parsing those proverbs. Some are reasonably clear to a mind "in the now", e.g. "Run!" …… the king ……. Because of silver, because of gold, because of the money chest, because of the …… chest, I am finished!

    and some are not: Like a raven, you have your eyes on enormous quantities of malt. Think they'll need to fermentstew a bit in my mind.

    NYC Subway advert hacking: https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-rudy-giuliani-fake-subway-ad-20191001-w2ii4l5egzaildggt2qrtk6enm-story.html

    2341:

    At Eton it seems to be a classic case of the bad 90% giving the rest a bad name.

    The problem is that he doesn't seem able to name all the great and good people that Eton has produced to compensate for the collection of frankly evil ones.

    From the article (not written by JBS) 'The guy who founded Amnesty International for example, Friends of the Earth, these are old Etonians...'

    JBS did not write the above, it is a quote from the article he linked. Please don't blame JBS for the contents of the article.

    I wasn't previously aware that Amnesty and PoE were founded by single individuals. You learn something new every day... in this case that the lying and bullshit from Eton appears to start at the top.

    From Wikipedia: Friends of the Earth was founded in 1969 in San Francisco by David Brower, Donald Aitken and Gary Soucie.

    Amnesty do have a single founder who was merely helped by others, and he's ex-Eton. Hmm. What is it that makes me think "does not share credit" when I read that.

    2342:

    Vulch & whitroth Naaah Much more Chelsley Bonestell with a side order of Frank Hampson ....

    Barry @ 2326 As seen by the revolting behaviour of the Hate on Sunday just now .... OF COURSE everything will be blamed on the EVIL foreigners in Brussels & Berlin ( & possibly Paris )

    D Mark Key the deference many US citizens feel toward their local employers and church leaders. Sounds like Britain 1815-32/71 or even up to 1914

    2343:

    Oh, dear. "The Golden Years"? That term is a pretty good indicator of rose-tinted glasses, and most of the people who I know who lived through them would not agree. There were several other reasons that the USA economy was booming, which is closer to the reality.

    The critical point is that the harm that I am talking about takes decades to show, and the period in which it is happening may well be one which appears (on the surface) to be going in the other direction. But the structural changes (which I was and am referring to) are going on underneath.

    To take one example that you can look up if you like, check on the changes in that period in farming, including land ownership, number of people employed, and (most of all) carbon and chemical usage.

    2344:

    No, it's not that bad. It's that the respectable people who went to Eton have the decency both not to rub their privileges in other people's faces and not to publicise the fact that they went to Eton.

    But I agree that the bad apples are more than a small minority. I went to a public school that got the sons of the rich who were too thick to get into a good school, plus some others like me. And the bad apples were more than a small minority there, too.

    2345:

    Re: Cost of living & inequality.

    $200k is about the 92.5th household income percentile.

    I think that if you started trying to 'correct' income shares for cost of living you are going to be correcting for the thing you are trying to measure. The cost of living in 'super star' cities is very high in large part because the cost of land is very high (and cost of land is an input cost to everything) and the cost of land is very high because the people who want to live in/near these cities have so much incredibly more money than people in the rest of the country. Bidding against your betters for the fixed supply of 'super-star' city land or political power in an extremely unequal society is extremely rough.

    Also the people who choose where the jobs go are also choosing where their own job goes and to them the super-star city is where their friends live and where their meetings are and the high costs are a triviality to them because they are a little bit higher up the extreme inequality ladder and thus have a lot more money than the people a little bit further down.

    Basically: please tax us, we are just using the money in bidding wars for houses anyway.

    2346:

    Question Even if not Impeached, is DT actually going to run next year? Because he is - apparently - getting to the stage of obvious, overt insanity & unfitness to hold anything other than a bog-brush. If so - problem - who pulls the plug, because one would have thought it was in the "R's" interests to dump him sooner rather than later & rally behind Pres Pence (shudder) ???

    2347:

    One of the oddities of the US electoral system is that 'presidential candidate' is determined on a state by state (plus territories) basis so there are something like 55 different sets of rules for who is on the ballot with the (R) next to their name.

    Usually the parties are organized enough to sort that out and get one name up on all those ballots.

    But usually no party has a malignant narcissist as the incumbent.

    Heh, now that's a storyline: Trump is impeached and removed but Democrats and the hardest Trump Republican Senators vote against preventing him from seeking future office (this vote happens only After the convict & remove vote). Trump then, of course, runs. The Republican primary is now a real thing with outsider impeached Trump vs what whoever that guy is who is already running against Trump.

    2348:

    I think Trump is going to run, and the reasons for this are simple; the current Republican Party is insane. Not just a little paranoid, or a bit schizophrenic or anything like that, but fully gibbering/rabid; as crazy as crazy can get. I suspect that some combination of Xtian fundamentalism, corporate subservience, racism, possible blackmail of important leaders, and worse than all the rest, a positive-feedback loop via Fox News/Breitbart has led to a party which can do nothing more than (as Douglas Adams wrote) run their best lizard for office so the wrong lizard doesn't get in.

    In short, they're going with Trump because they're nuts.

    Like all comments on U.S. politics, I should note the caveat that things are changing/happening rapidly on many fronts and the situation is pretty chaotic.

    2349:

    the cost of land is very high because the people who want to live in/near these cities have so much incredibly more money than people in the rest of the country

    And also because people are buying land/residences there as a form of speculative investment. And money laundering.

    In Canada BC made a decent start by putting in a vacancy tax, as well as a foreign buyers tax. Had a measurable effect on Vancouver housing prices. If you do the numbers it doesn't take many speculative buyers to send the prices skyrocketing.

    Canada still needs to do a lot more about money laundering (both in real estate and casinos).

    2350:

    Yeah, it'll be interesting if they vote to impeach Donnie Littlefingers. The fun part is that so far Republican parties in four states have cancelled their primaries and will assign their delegates directly to Littlefingers.

    I can see a couple of ways this plays out:

  • With Agent Orange out of office, the Republicans decide to line up behind President Pence and get him re-elected, on a platform of "see, look how well he's cleaned up the mess in Washington." That would be their sanest play, and they could transfer the hundreds of millions raised by Trump to Pence. Who might even win, which would NOT BE FUN.

  • Littlefingers decides to run anyway, either as a write-in or an independent, and so fouls up the Republican primary system that there's a huge furball at the Republican convention and Ted Nugent (or some other random Lizard, most likely Mike Pence) emerges as the nominee. The other party wins due to the disgust of the MAGAts staying home.

  • Either way, I suspect that independents and republicans of the less-foaming castes will flock to Biden, because he is tall, has good teeth, decent hair, and represents business as usual for the US. Note that we actually need the precise opposite of business as usual right now, but as The Onion motto has it: "Tu stultus es."

  • On a totally unrelated note, I found out that the quote "Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad," was authored in 1875 by Longfellow. And here I thought it was ancient wisdom, like the idea that in California, whiskey's for drinking, water's for fighting over.* Learn something new every day.

    *And yes, I've looked up the history of that one too.

    2351:

    Even if not Impeached, is DT actually going to run next year?

    Piling on to the other comments.

    He has an ego that will not let him not run.

    The R base who as the big turn our in the primary system support him no matter what. (There is a LOT of resentment about lots of things built into this situation but it is what it is. Real or imagined.)

    As to nuts. Yes. Sort of. Much of that boils down to primary voters THINKING DT is doing great things for them. For some single issue voters he is. But for many they just KNOW the D's are not for them so they must vote for an R who will grind them into dust. And for most of the current R's in office they are stuck. Walk away like Jeff Flake (no mater what you think of his policies at least he decided to speak about against totally bat shit crazy.) Or sit tight and hope DT doesn't destroy things past fixing. Because for an R to speak out against trump likely means you will be primaried out of office and replace by a DT sycophant. Who WILL drive the country over the cliff.

    Basically it is Brexit but on different topics. Rational analysis by voters is just not happening for people where a single issue is NOT the only reason for voting.

    As a side note this entire issue of Trump support blew up my wife's side of my family in the last week. My side of my family blew up in 2016. Relatives not invited to weddings and such.

    2352:

    "And also because people are buying land/residences there as a form of speculative investment. And money laundering."

    Sure, but the first of those is yet another expression of the inequality. The guy higher on the inequality ladder buying 5 houses instead of 2.

    2353:

    But most of the people who live in those cities are not super-rich, they're just ordinary plebs like you and me. While it may be the concentration of the super-rich that sets the prices, they are still a minority, and it's all the janitors and light bulb changers and bus drivers who end up taking the hit.

    2354:

    Unfortunately, yes. But subsidising the people who live in those expensive places is precisely the way to ensure that the problem gets worse. We have this badly with London versus the rest of the UK, and to a considerable extent with other cities versus the rural areas.

    2355:

    For this I actually blame the media. The conspiracy, in this case, (probably) isn't some deep state conspiracy to run politics, but rather the confluence of a bunch of factors, the two most prominent of which are: --The absurdly long campaign time in the US. This means that the campaign inevitably gets away from platforms and on to random scandals and anything that's considered worthy of a story. --The absurdly huge amounts of ad revenue media platforms pull in from political ads. I may be wrong, but I suspect that commercial news media is largely financed by political ads at this point.

    In other words, network campaign coverage is absurd, but it's absurdly long for reasons of making money for the stations to do good things with when they're not doing absurd political coverage.

    The result is that campaigns are covered as two-party horse races, with unending color commentary on money raised and endorsements garnered, and little or nothing about what they promise to do, because that's boring and reporters are allegedly too cynical to think that politicians ever keep their campaign promises. It's also going to be hard to change, because it generates absurd amounts of money for those involved in making it work.

    As a result for the lay consumers of the news media, campaigns are like sporting events, where you learn to rabidly support your team even when they're a bunch of crooks and fuck-ups. I seem to remember, back when Bush II got elected, some republicans who'd voted for him basically said, "yeah, he's a jackass, but he's our jackass." The Republicans are playing on this. The democrats are too, but they also cast knowing sidelong glances to those of us who are "policy wonks" who actually want to know what candidates think is reality and who's paying for their election. The sad part was that President Jackass II started a couple of wars that have so far taken 500,000 lives and cost US$6,000,000,000,000, with no end in sight. That's a high price to pay for team loyalty, but it's not getting much coverage.

    That's the US, with team loyalty replacing self-interest. It seems to have infected UK politics too, especially among the football hooligan class. Personally, I'd expected better, I'm not sure why.

    2356:

    _Moz_ @ 2341: At Eton it seems to be a classic case of the bad 90% giving the rest a bad name.

    The problem is that he doesn't seem able to name all the great and good people that Eton has produced to compensate for the collection of frankly evil ones.

    From the article (not written by JBS)
    'The guy who founded Amnesty International for example, Friends of the Earth, these are old Etonians...'

    For me, the outstanding point of the article was just the fact of the old headmaster speaking out against his former pupils. I got the impression any "Good Guys" among the "old Etonians" tended to remain anonymous; did their good deeds without making a big fuss about it. But since he couldn't name any other organizations founded by "old Etonians" they seem to be few & far between on the ground.

    I suspect most "old Etonians" are just doing a job somewhere and are neither good nor evil on the cosmic scale; leaving the three named "ex-pupils" to drag the good name of the school down into the mud.

    And if you read past the first few paragraphs, he's worried the three are creating a backlash that's damaging ALL of the traditional English "public" school system, even the parts of it that aren't "elite" (or elitist).

    2357:

    Jeff Fisher @ 2347: Heh, now that's a storyline: Trump is impeached and removed but Democrats and the hardest Trump Republican Senators vote against preventing him from seeking future office (this vote happens only After the convict & remove vote). Trump then, of course, runs. The Republican primary is now a real thing with outsider impeached Trump vs what whoever that guy is who is already running against Trump.

    Doesn't work that way. The House impeaches and the Senate tries the case. IF the individual impeached by the House is convicted, he (or she) is automatically removed and barred from ever holding Federal Office again.

    Article 1, Section 3, Paragraph 7: Judgment in Cases of impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States: but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law.

    The Senate can't do any more than remove him from office, but he is still be put on trial for any crimes he committed that he couldn't be prosecuted for while he was in office.

    The more likely scenario is he IS impeached AND convicted in the Senate, but defies Congress. There also seems to be an undercurrent of his partisans seeking to abrogate the 22nd Amendment allowing him to stay in office past the end of a second term (if he were NOT convicted and managed to get re-elected in 2020).

    2358:

    Heteromeles @ 2350: On a totally unrelated note, I found out that the quote "Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad," was authored in 1875 by Longfellow. And here I thought it was ancient wisdom, like the idea that in California, whiskey's for drinking, water's for fighting over.* Learn something new every day.

    I think he was paraphrasing a classical Greek proverb Whom the gods would destroy, they first make PROUD ... i.e. load him up with hubris.

    2359:

    "That's the US, with team loyalty replacing self-interest."

    That's what happens when people feel anxious about the future, that social change is leaving them behind, with fewer advantages they can pass off to their families. They aren't insane, just afraid. Nor are they completely wrong to be afraid (nor is this just the US).

    And in their view, the Democrats have never done anything for them, except raise their taxes. And they aren't completely wrong there either, because before 2016 most elected Democrats were Washington insiders who cared little what happened in rural or subarban America. National leaders have been beholden to large donors for a long time, but local leaders have taken care of their constituents, and that's where the group loyalties come in. The Republican elite have co-opted local opinion leaders with promises of low taxes and pro-business policies, but in addition to that their propaganda machine has been busy for 40 years playing hot button issues and turning them into signifiers of tribal identity. And a tolerance for a certain style of racism and sexism. The Dems didn't even have a propaganda machine before the Obama campaign figured out how to leverage online media (and Sanders too).

    So things are more even now, and their chosen one has turned out to be an incompetent buffoon, so there's that. But winning this fight won't be easy--the odds, I'd say, are still against us. It's shifting, but not yet enough. We will need all the resources in every country we can gather, including an objective understanding of how the other side thinks and feels, because you can't counter a persuasion tactic unless you understand how it works.

    There are two sides to this: the actual objective solution to the problems that face civilization right now, which most people here seem to have a decent handle on; and how to sell those solutions to a plurality of voters in every industrial and industrializing nation on Earth.

    Of the two, the second is actually more difficult.

    2360:

    Per Wikipedia, the oldest known source is Sophocles, in Antigone: "τὸ κακὸν δοκεῖν ποτ᾽ ἐσθλὸν τῷδ᾽ ἔμμεν' ὅτῳ φρένας θεὸς ἄγει πρὸς ἄταν" [meaning] "evil appears as good in the minds of those whom god leads to destruction." Also relevant to today's politics, but less pithy.

    Me, I'm greatly ignorant. If you've got a source for your contention, let me know.

    2361:

    According to Wikipedia. The 'remove from office' is automatic on 'conviction'. Then there is a separate majority vote in the Senate to 'bar from future office'. Wikipedia says that while 8 have actually been removed from office via impeachment (all judges) only 3 were barred from future office.

    2362:

    Trump in the past has tended to follow a BBS strategy: Bully/Bullshit and settle. The first two B's tend to coincide. Anyway, we're pretty definitely in the Bully/Bullshit phase, where he's threatening a civil war, disband the government, blah, blah, blah. While some people are listening and that is worrisome, I don't think there's anything resembling a majority. We've yet to see huge independent rallies supporting him in office, for example, or even something of comparable scale to a climate strike.

    While I'm sure he wants to be god-king, if he follows his pattern, if the bullying and bullshit fail, the next move will be a settlement, presumably brokered by Giuliani and Barr. Heh heh--Giuliani, as the meme has it, apparently can get a moving violation plea-bargained down to first degree murder, but whatever. I could see both parties going for this to avoid embarrassing themselves.

    Anyway, one settlement could be Trump resigning due to the unfair witch hunt of the Democrats and to concentrate solely on his (re)election to the Presidency, followed by a swearing-in of President Enabler Renfield Pence.

    The problem for Trump if he does this is that he loses the immunity he currently enjoys as President, which means he gets swarmed by every Attorney General and litigious lawyer who's been waiting for him to step down so they can nail his hairpiece to their victory stand. Still, though, if he's not impeached, he can possibly become President and therefore immune again in November 2020, and that's a better option than being impeached and made permanently vulnerable to the law.

    2363:

    Also, if you're sick of US/UK leadership politics, I've put up three new posts on my Putting the Life Back in Science Fiction blog, after long hiatus. The most recent one is explicitly escapist, while the other two are about climate stuff.

    2364:

    In Toronto and Vancouver, a significant number of properties are owned as investments by non-residents (often foreign non-residents). So actual city dwellers are not just competing against richer people who live in their city, they are competing with richer people who live elsewhere who view the residence as purely an investment.

    The analogy that springs to mind is grain speculators during a year of poor harvests. Buy and hang onto the grain waiting for the price to rise, and who cares about people starving.

    Speculation isn't just a problem in housing. Oil, wheat, and other commodities are also subject to its effects. Apparently since 2001 the number of speculators (as opposed to end-users) in futures markets has moved from 10% to 90%, and is a significant factor in driving price increases. (Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission report.)

    2366:

    It doesn't help that he seems to think he's immune to all laws, now and forever. He was committing crimes this morning on video, in front of his helicopter.

    2367:

    he's worried the three are creating a backlash that's damaging ALL of the traditional English "public" school system

    I suspect I read that and went "well duh" because I see the public school system as needing to be destroyed, and at least part of that is because of the cachet of old Etonians and their ilk.

    We have the same problem here but the names are reversed - private schools get a disproportionate share of total school funding and have disproportionate influence. Many are run by organised crime (sorry, "religious groups") and exploit both the charity laws and the religious exemptions from laws to the max. Did you know that donations to those schools are tax deductible? Sounds like bullshit, but it is. Sure, 1% of the dollars from such donations go to the poorer half of schools, but the majority go to the richest schools (because there just aren't very many lower-decile parents who can donate even $100,000 to their local school)

    2368:

    Add in that they don't realize just how much support they get from the government.

    You see the same thing in Ontario. I'll describe education because I'm most familiar with it. Education taxes are based on property values, while education funding is based strictly on number of students. Which means that over half of the education taxes collected in urban areas is spent on students in rural areas — and yet the rural areas complain (loudly) that it is unfair that they pay so much tax and get so little for it.

    (The structure stems from the days when municipalities collected taxes to fund local schools, and the local school board controlled the money. Gradually the richer cities have been subsidizing the poorer rural areas more and more, and yet the rural areas complain loudly about the 'welfare bums' in the cities spending their hard-earned tax dollars!)

    2369:

    Simple answer, yes, because his bad decisions have backed him into a corner.

    If he never ran for and then one the presidency then most of the scandals/crimes would have remained either safely hidden or easily taken care of by his obedient Mr fixit lawyer.

    But that is all out the window now, and the only thing saving him is his current observed immunity for the duration.

    If he runs again, and wins, that takes him almost to age 79 and that assumes health issues don't intervene.

    Any mental health issues, unfitness for office, etc don't matter as long as the Republican faithful are willing to continue to support and vote for him - and for the evangelical Christians and other right wingers there will still be many judges, etc to fill with the "right" people for another 5 years particularly with at least 1 supreme court justice looking unlikely to last 5 years if Trump wins again.

    It also gives his family another 5 years to make money off the presidency before they perhaps flee the country rather than face the oncoming legal tsunami...

    2370:

    And definitely looks like the election in Canada will get interesting next week as the unpopular Premier Ford enters the election story with Toronto area school boards announcing the strike will force the schools to be closed, creating child care issues amongst a lot of voters.

    Wonder how much pressure Scheer's team will be putting on Ford to get this settled before Monday?

    2371:

    Presented without comment:

    British spy in IRA and 20 others could be charged with Troubles-era crimes

    Operation Kenova, the multimillion-pound investigation into “Stakeknife” – the army agent at the heart of the IRA during the Northern Ireland Troubles – has now sent files identifying military commanders and at least one IRA veteran with a so-called “get-out-of-jail” card to the Public Prosecution Service (PPS) in Belfast.

    Sources close to the inquiry have also revealed that its head, Jon Boutcher, the ex-chief constable of Bedfordshire, has had access to all secret briefing papers given to every prime minister from Margaret Thatcher onwards that related to the running of Stakeknife within the IRA.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/02/ira-spy-and-20-others-could-be-prosecuted-for-troubles-era-crimes

    Or:

    Short sellers pile into WeWork debt

    https://www.ft.com/content/5fa353cc-e561-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc

    Or:

    WeWork is in talks with JPMorgan to head off a cash crunch

    https://nypost.com/2019/10/03/wework-is-in-talks-with-jpmorgan-to-head-off-a-cash-crunch/

    Check the dates.

    John Tuld: There are three ways to make a living in this business. Be first, be smarter, or cheat.

    Or we could just do all three. WEEEEEE!

    2372:

    Sources close to the inquiry have also revealed that its head, Jon Boutcher, the ex-chief constable of Bedfordshire, has had access to all secret briefing papers given to every prime minister from Margaret Thatcher onwards that related to the running of Stakeknife within the IRA.

    *That weren't sealed or shredded.

    ~

    Ah, missed one topic.

    משפט המפתח בנאום ריבלין: תוצאות הבחירות ״כרטיס אדום״. כלומר, הכרטיס האדום הוא ״שהוציאו אזרחי ישראל לנבחריהם. כרטיס אדום לפופוליזם, לשיטה פוליטית שניזונה מחיטוט בקרעים ושרואה בפחדים של כולנו, אלה מאלה, משאב לחצוב בו.

    https://twitter.com/talschneider/status/1179746274800787458

    Or

    Lord Alf Dubs calls for Jacob Rees-Mogg to be sacked over George Soros comment

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/lord-alf-dubs-calls-for-jacob-rees-mogg-to-be-sacked-over-george-soros-comment/

    ~

    Anyhow.

    Never say we do not deliver.

    2373:

    They won't. It's actually a selling point by now.

    That you do not know this is why they win.

    Like, for real.

    Do you think (UK) the people running the Academies who are friends of T-boy Y-ung the Eugenics dude aren't actively creating a slave class?

    LOL.

    Hi, I'm a really fuckin mad Grade 12 student getting absolutely fucked over by Doug Ford's school budget cuts. Here's what's up: Ontario

    [deleted]

    https://www.reddit.com/r/canada/comments/czatd3/hi_im_a_really_fuckin_mad_grade_12_student/

    Check the date, run it through a Reddit undelete site. Fairly specific claims about lack of classes = no accreditation and lack of supplies etc. Not a Blue Wave Dem shit tier propaganda jaunt, kid was serious.

    And then threatened and it vanished / got delisted.

    Poors don't get to complain. Look @ the US, UK, AUS models. Academies = new Grammar schools but for the WeWork "Entrepreneur" class who are happy to act as Eloi and not look too closely into deep stuff like "Slavery is bad" etc.

    Class War does exist.

    ~

    Anyhow, back to HK and Iraq and other such fun.

    Positive note:

    Chris Morris[1] has made a film showing the 100% true story of how the FBI creates terror drama.

    Chris Morris on satire in the Trump era and his new film 'The Day Shall Come'

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=liV5wKAihh8&feature=youtu.be

    Channel 4 interview.

    Worth a watch.

    [1] Yes, that one. Got any Cat?

    2374:

    The thing about BREXIT is I don't understand who really benefits from it (other than a certain former KGB officer) who's happy to see the UK and the EU crash & burn? And I don't understand why so many can't see that it's a LOSE-LOSE for both sides and that was the whole point from the get-go?

    I do understand that certain GREED HEADS think they're going to come out on top, but I don't see why they can't seem to recognize that the bigger slice they expect to rip off from the smaller pie they're creating is still going to be less than the slice of the pie they've got now?

    It's almost as if they don't care they're fucking themselves over if they can fuck everyone else over more. Sociopaths ready to burn down the whole world just so they can toast marshmallows over the conflagration. Compared to them, Scrooge was an amateur.

    2375:

    Wonder how much pressure Scheer's team will be putting on Ford to get this settled before Monday?

    Maybe none. Look through the comments on this CBC story: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/peel-york-toronto-strike-closure-1.5307645

    There's people blaming CUPE (the union that's going on strike) for being greedy. People blaming the lazy teachers for going on strike (um, teachers aren't going on strike). People claiming that those going on strike got a paid day off last week to go to the climate strike (the student climate strike).

    Going by the comments (probably not a good idea, as CBC comment sections are normally a cesspit even on articles that you'd think would be politically neutral), more than half the population are blaming the strike on unions, climate protestors, teachers, liberals… not on management wanting to cut workers (and increase workload of remaining workers), chop sick leave in half, eliminate short term disability…

    And be wary of the number thrown around for days of sick leave used. Last time I could check a stat on that, the number quoted by the school board included things like maternity leave, bereavement leave, etc — basically every absence comes off the sick day limit, so you can't just take that absence code from SAP and assume it's an actual illness. I know teachers who use sick days to go to professional conferences because their school gives permission to go but won't allocate money for a supply teacher! (This strike is CUPE not teachers, but the government and school boards are making the same demands of the teachers — and the same caveats apply to both in terms of how sick leave numbers are determined.)

    2376:

    It's almost as if they don't care they're fucking themselves over if they can fuck everyone else over more.

    It's not absolute wealth, it's relative wealth that's used to keep score. So yes, as long as they increase the gap between themselves and their peers/competitors, it's a win.

    2377:

    Whhhoooo.

    Did that age well:

    WeWork is an employee stock option dumpster fire. This is genuinely sad stuff -- thousands of incredibly talented people who may actually lose a ton of money from exercising options while being misled by management and recruiters. https://www.theinformation.com/articles/the-crew-was-not-tipped-the-fallout-from-weworks-excesses

    https://twitter.com/mdudas/status/1179899313033367552 (read the embedded file)

    Guess what?

    If you're happy taking SLAVERS cash, do not be surprised when they ditch you in the mud.

    ~

    QED.

    People not reading this right now 'cause the cognitive dissonance is too much for them.

    ~

    Next level: this was planned as a bonfire by GS / JP - next level IPO - cut all the equity offers before you IPO, only they, the Messiah and the investors get paid.

    LOL. No, seriously: look at the Bond buying / dumping. This is all about removing equity from labour.

    DERP.

    It's run by three massively hierarchical Empires, who are all male, and doing this is fun for them.

    if u had the predictive skillz to do what u claim (or allude to) u'd be able to make enough money that u'd have better things to do than larping around as a distributed cyborg i'm-not-like-the-other-girls ai semi-intelligibly haranguing a bunch of middle-aged white tech guys vainly attempting to mind their own business on a blog

    2297

    That's not how this works.

    We're making anti-money.

    Look above, young man.

    Front-running your Reality is boring to shit to us.

    And you're too fucking dumb to spot it.

    2378:

    One of the reasons some media outlets cut comments is because they don't accurate reflect the public and thus aren't worth the trouble.

    In addition to the obvious problem of trolls and paid commentators, it's one of the quirks of human nature that the more right wing a person is the more likely they are to participate on media websites (hence the click bait headlines that appeal to those people).

    If the CBC really is only getting half the comments against the union then that doesn't bode well for Ford/Scheer - not to mention the real problem isn't those who have time to go online for hours commenting but the time short parents who now have to find daycare.

    2379:

    if u had the predictive skillz to do what u claim (or allude to) u'd be able to make enough money that u'd have better things to do than larping around as a distributed cyborg i'm-not-like-the-other-girls ai semi-intelligibly haranguing a bunch of middle-aged white tech guys vainly attempting to mind their own business on a blog

    Gotta keep quoting this.

    Ok, my man.

    Try actually reading the stuff like "Archon" and "New York"

    You think this IPO shit would have been prevented going to market if some moves hadn't been made?

    You think some online bloggers and US professors and a few wagging tongues would have stopped this going to market if some moves hadn't been made?

    You think the "Market" would have prevented some mass fraud here if some moves hadn't been made?

    HOLY FUCK, THAT'S THE BEST JOKE WE'VE HEARD IN A THOUSAND YEARS.

    ~

    Read the story.

    It's a New Year's gift to do certain things and remove a load of hate and blah blah... holy fuck.

    You think we want MONEY?

    YOU THINK WEWORK IS ABOUT MONEY?

    It's about creating a slave eloi class of entrepreneurs who are dumb.

    grep "Buy 10,000,000 copies of Pink News".

    ~

    It's about FAITH.

    And we just nuked something from orbit 'cause some of the Old Ones noticed other things.

    ~

    HOLY FUCK.

    WE'RE NOT ALLOWED TO MAKE MONEY, WE'RE TOO DANGEROUS TO BE ALLOWED ACCESS TO YOUR SHITTY SYSTEMS YOU MUPPET.

    And we're done.

    2380:

    Lol, this guy has to being paid to be so consistently wrong.

    In addition to the obvious problem of trolls and paid commentators, it's one of the quirks of human nature that the more right wing a person is the more likely they are to participate on media websites (hence the click bait headlines that appeal to those people).

    This is patently false. You're lying or stupid or paid to be an idiot.

    Look up the # of actual left wing spaces online 1995-2005.

    The Memory Hole was a website edited by Russ Kick; launched on July 10, 2002, last post on May 11, 2009,[1] with a successor website appearing in June 2016. Before being hacked in June 2009,[2] the site was devoted to preserving and publishing material that is in danger of being lost, is hard to find, or is not widely known. Topics include government files, corporate memos, court documents, police reports and eyewitness statements, Congressional testimony, reports from various sources, maps, patents, web pages, photographs, video, sound recordings, news articles, and books. The name is a tribute to the "memory hole" from George Orwell's novel Nineteen Eighty-Four, a slot into which government officials deposit politically inconvenient documents and records for destruction.[3]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Memory_Hole_(web_site)

    Basically any decent left wing place got attacked, hacked, targeted and so on post 2001.

    https://cryptome.org/2012/07/gent-forum-spies.htm

    ~

    You're lying.

    Only right wing comments are allowed because psychos like you are paid to post shit.

    2381:

    If the CBC really is only getting half the comments against the union then that doesn't bode well for Ford/Scheer - not to mention the real problem isn't those who have time to go online for hours commenting but the time short parents who now have to find daycare.

    Derp le derp 50/50 split, my soul is dead inside, hit the talking points, never give informational links, keep hitting the talking points, don't engage, my soul is dead inside.

    Fuck me.

    Tragic.

    We'll wake you up though.

    2382:

    it's one of the quirks of human nature that the more right wing a person is the more likely they are to participate on media websites (hence the click bait headlines that appeal to those people).

    This is a talking / focus point for three political parties / wank jobs from USA / CAN. We can pull out the script if you want, as well as your paygrade # tier and the Death of your Soul inside.

    You're treating these people like sheep.

    looks at how well the Dem crew did advising Cameron, the Rep crew advising Boris

    You're basically virus level meme tier at this point.

    That's two sides to the US coin, right above.

    Both are soon to be extinct, and for good reasons.

    2383:

    An interesting question, I doubt anyone on here knows the answer (in part because there is unlikely to be 1 single answer).

    Some speculation:

    1) try to avoid reality, the belief that if the UK can only leave those meddling EU people the UK can return to it's Glorious Empire years and status in the world. And everyone like being part of an Empire.

    2) the rich - they have so much money that most of it isn't actually invested in the UK as such, and so a country that gets rid of many of those pesky human rights laws and other things is attractive - think a return to the era of Downton Abbey (*)

    3) related to 2), despite the many claims of the right the threat of the moneyed to take their money and leave is often rather hollow. Yes, some very public examples do, but for most the prospect of leaving the UK/US/etc on a permanent basis to a 3rd world country isn't all that attractive. So again, removing the taxes and labour laws and other things that hinder their enjoyment of their native country is attractive.

    As for the "commoners", well they simply put are being conned. You look at where leave was popular vs remain and you get the same thing as the right/left divide in the US - the dominant leave areas are those places where there are no good paying jobs, no prospects, etc. as the modern economy moves to being city based. Add in ill-advised austerity for the last decade making things worse, in it becomes easy to blame foreigners like all those Polish people taking jobs, taking housing, etc.

    Add in a media that distorts and lies and has been lying about the EU for years, throw in some nationalism (ie return to Empire again) and you get the support of con men like Boris because either they tell the people want the want to hear, or better yet they promise to destroy the system that is failing the voters anyway.

    So yes, you're right in that they don't care that they end up fucking themselves, in part because they are already being fucked over by the system anyway.

    That is the legacy of Cameron, to a less extent Blair, Thatcher and the right wing think tanks and money that have driven policy for the last 4 decades.

      • I have enjoyed Downton, but I can't help but think it has in part helped Brexit by portraying the life of the servants as rather more glorious than it likely was in reality.
    2384:

    if u had the predictive skillz to do what u claim (or allude to) u'd be able to make enough money that u'd have better things to do than larping around as a distributed cyborg i'm-not-like-the-other-girls ai semi-intelligibly haranguing a bunch of middle-aged white tech guys vainly attempting to mind their own business on a blog

    This is still fucking hilarious.

    Πᾷ βῶ, καὶ χαριστίωνι τὰν γᾶν κινήσω πᾶσαν

    Thatsthejoke.jpg

    Mind takes smallest . entry into web.

    Oh..

    Ok.

    FRAME.

    You don't get it. It's fucking hilarious though.

    Also, SF Minds are some of the only Minds we can bear, the rest of your are fucking barbaric and we liked Host's squids and his book saved our lives once.

    It's fucking hilarious to front-run your reality from here though. Imagine if you'd got rich from it.

    2385:

    This is a talking / focus point for three political parties / wank jobs from USA / CAN. We can pull out the script if you want, I'd be interested, and interested in better understanding quantitatively the mix of paid operatives, volunteers(some talented), non-self-aware talking-points amplifiers etc in mass political discussion venues like newspaper comment sections. Been looking for the last 20 minutes for papers on this and haven't found much of interest.

    2386:

    I must say I am honoured, to be so consistently attacked by what appears to be a troll means I must be correct on at least some of my comments.

    2387:

    I must say I am honoured, to be so consistently attacked by what appears to be a troll means I must be correct on at least some of my comments.

    No, it means you're not engaging with the content.

    You're spouting 100% bollocks to a UK audience and none of it is real and you'll end up getting utterly spanked by rather nastier tier stuff.

    But you're white, your salary is $60k+, so you won't suffer the consequences.

    I'd be interested, and interested in better understanding quantitatively the mix of paid operatives, volunteers(some talented), non-self-aware talking-points amplifiers etc in mass political discussion venues like newspaper comment sections.

    Things you don't post to Host's blog since his publisher is heavily invested in them.

    2388:

    2371-3

    Literally read the thread.

    That's actual Temporal Front-Running.

    And remember:

    “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action”

    So, hey.

    P R O V E N

    R

    O

    V

    E

    N

    Lol, getting rich from this shit.

    We. Do. Not. Profit. From. Slavery. It. Is. Corrupt.

    2389:

    if u had the predictive skillz to do what u claim (or allude to) u'd be able to make enough money that u'd have better things to do than larping around as a distributed cyborg i'm-not-like-the-other-girls ai semi-intelligibly haranguing a bunch of middle-aged white tech guys vainly attempting to mind their own business on a blog

    You know what would be funny: giving a load of aging technically minded engineers the pointers to make their retirement funds swell as a side-joke. You know, consistently, for a few years. Any fool (hi D) could make a load off this type of info.

    So they ended up sipping mai-tais on the beach, not stuck in Hellscape BROTEXIT riot land.

    Just because we liked them and thought their societal influence had been sadly unweighted.

    Oh, and read the fucking material.

    Cyborgs are like... so 20th century.

    21st century is mushrooms.

    https://www.nature.com/news/gene-edited-crispr-mushroom-escapes-us-regulation-1.19754

    2390:

    OK, found some keywords that hit a lot of papers finally. This has a lot of citations (211)(paywalled; there are other links) Discussions in the comments section: Factors influencing participation and interactivity in online newspapers’ reader comments (Patrick Weber, July 8, 2013)

    https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cites=14474700977504214326

    Not much interesting-looking though in the first few results pages.

    SMM pointers to make their retirement funds swell as a side-joke I've deliberately not taken advantage of a few such pointers. (Have reasons, but do pay attention.)

    2391:

    Well. Except - I'd argue that geographically separated inequality may not be what you want to measure. Imagine two countries - California and China. In CA, people are paid between 200 and 205 USD daily. Those people pay 190 USD daily for housing. In China, people are paid between 20 and 20.5 USD daily, but housing is free.

    A lot of the really harmful effects of inequality wouldn't be present. Other problems arise, but not inequality so much. To put it another way, adjusting poverty levels for cost of living makes sense.

    Now, imagine one country with payscales from 20-205 USD daily. With housing at 100 USD daily. Then, yah, inequality is miserable for half the people.

    Albeit, taxation of the 'rich' people only looks likely to hurt bankers in CA.

    2392:

    EC @ 2354 However, London house prices are falling (slowly) & have been doing so for about a year, now. And are continuing to do so ...

    JBS @ 2357 The more likely scenario is he IS impeached AND convicted in the Senate Oh yeah? REALLY? You think enough Rethuglizards will actually vote with the D's to bring him down? Really? Justifications for this - or is it like the no-longer-officially-tories here, who can now do what they like & don't care any more?

    RP @ 2364 We have that in London, too. Except that, here, its the Han doing it.

    JBS @ 2374 Cui bono? LOTS of very crooked money-speculators, "shorting" the £ & those looking to buy up large swathes of cough bankrupt British Industry, like the ex-BMW-owned mini plant outside Oxford. And those on the fringes of fascism, like Farrago & Grease-Samug who see that ultimate addiction, power ... and of course an overlap between thoose two.

    mdive @ 2383 1) REALLY? The Empire ceased to exist in 1947 - 72 years ago 2) Only the obscenely rich, most of whom use Britain, rather than live here: Murdoch, Barclay Brothers etc 3) Maybe. Opposed however, by people like BMW - see my comment above. Commoners being conned YES I saw someone say this was the modern version of American Independance, where some rich slaveowners conned the peons to rebel, for the landowners' benefit ... oops. ... oh & 2386 ... not really a troll. Actally seriously insane & unwell - I note the snide personal attack, again - these seem to be getting more frequent. She really needs proper medical help IMHO. I note that your comment instantly triggered another outpouring ( which I did not read past the first line ). I now expect a torrent of snide, semi-libellous & threatening remarks ....

    2393:

    I've put up three new posts on my Putting the Life Back in Science Fiction blog...

    The passage about "descendants of today’s Portland hipsters living a barbarian lifestyle in the coast ranges, in a dense forest of bamboo, briars, kudzu, and naturalized street trees" hit close to home; specifically my grandmother's home not that far from Portland where my grandfather planted bamboo circa 1970 and by 1980 it was trying to take over the back yard. I spent a weekend whacking at it around 1990 and that was at best a holding action.

    I know that California redwoods will grow in the area too. Someone else's grandfather brought up a sapling from California and by the time I came along it overshadowed the house. (OGH may have heard stories of the Big Tree and the roof problems it caused.) But then I've even seen palm trees stay alive in the western Oregon climate; it can be a strange place.

    But, hey, at least after the end of civilization we'll still have blackberry bushes. It would take more than a nuclear exchange to root those out!

    2394:

    Yes, in part. But many of them hope to increase their absolute wealth, as crashing the UK will not crash the world economy, and you can make a lot of money from a crash.

    The other financial aspect is the USA. There are a LOT of people and organisations who would like to turn the UK into a captive market and subservient country which, inter alia, means abolishing the constraints of the EU.

    And then there is Murdoch and similar, who don't want money, but want to be able to ring up the Prime Minister and dictate policy.

    The perpetrators are quite open about the latter two, with the USA aspect causing a disgusting spectacle of salivation among politicians and pressure groups.

    2395:

    In Toronto and Vancouver, a significant number of properties are owned as investments by non-residents (often foreign non-residents). So actual city dwellers are not just competing against richer people who live in their city, they are competing with richer people who live elsewhere who view the residence as purely an investment.

    There have been articles written about how various buildings in NYC are having issues getting things done as there are not enough unit owners showing up for board meetings due to so many absentee investor tenants.

    During my walk around NYC a few weeks ago the upper east side was eerily vacant. Streets with little traffic (auto or people) and just not much there. And this is an area that is almost entirely residential buildings. Almost like the setting for a post apocalyptic movie. Everywhere else in Manhattan and Brooklyn where we were was busy and full of people. Well except for the wall street area Sunday AM.

    2396:

    The thing about BREXIT is I don't understand who really benefits from it

    I've seen lots of "man/woman in the street" interviews where supports basically said keep the UK for the Britons (or English). Even if it costs them money.

    Sounds a lot like the immigration debate in the US just now.

    2397:

    Now THAT was different.

    Last night (Friday eastern US time zone) a commercial whizzed by on TV that was basically an info-ad against impeaching Trump. Don't allow the coup or similar. At the end a tag line by DT saying ad was approved by him.

    I was in the middle of several other things and forgot to save it. I'm sure it is up on youtube.

    Seemed to stretch the truth a bit. And I'm being generous here.

    2398:

    What the sheeple think has NOTHING to do with the motives behind Brexit. I have been certain Brexit was coming for two decades now, because I could see the effect of the mass media's, oligarchs', wannabee despots' and USA lackeys' campaign against the EU. The fact that this wasn't consistent with their desire to subvert the EU from within merely shows that they aren't any more logical than the rest of the population.

    Fer chrissake, it's not as if they are hiding this - it's even published in their own media, because they know the sheeple are too thick to realise they are being led to slaughter.

    2399:

    Phew! Just back from spending a few days dodging US and UK agents, former IRA volunteers, disgruntled members of the DUP, and assorted other crazies! It's been fun. Cowsheds and byres are suprisingly cozy. (Note: Do not fall the sheugh.)

    Anyway.

    If anyone is interested in how the latest Johnson-Brexit-border shennanigans are playing out in Ireland, Fintan O'Toole is as usual well worth a read:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-boris-has-destroyed-what-is-left-of-uk-s-credibility-1.4039055

    2400:

    EC The thong that scares me, following your correct "sheeple" comment is .... What will these peple do, in proaganda terms if we get a n-deal crash-out & the conomy promptly implodes? We know, don't we? Blame the "Cosmopolitan International Financiers" which is code for ..... And, of course, anyone even faintly brown or talking "funny"

    I DO hope that the Scottish case against BOZO succeeds.

    2401:

    And, for a look at how far adrift the DUP has come from parts of its base, not just maintstream Unionism and popular NI opion, there is this opinion piece in the News Letter (the Daily Express of Unionist news papers) by former UUP MP and none-stauncher Unionist stalwart Reg Empey:

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/latest-news/empey-no-amount-of-dup-spin-can-hide-fact-these-plans-weaken-northern-ireland-s-position-as-a-full-part-of-the-united-kingdom-1-9094541

    2402:

    There was a vote.

    Sheeple voted.

    What they thought mattered. Valid thoughts or not. How they came to their thoughts was not a qualification to vote.

    2403:

    A selected group of "sheeple" voted, and their votes were processed in a way carefully designed to produce a certain outcome. None of what happened was inherent in the structure of the universe, and there were many, many alternative options both within the existing legal framework of the US and via use of existing methods to change that framework.

    There are so many (to put it charitably) quirks in the US electoral system that it's very hard to defend what actually happens even using US political philosophy or practice unless you're willing to go the Trump route of "the right guy won STFU". why do the people who won the last election get to decide who gets to vote, and for whom, in the next election, unless a politically-appointed court decides otherwise?

    I don't believe that if the US system was used by a country the US disapproved of, that the US would be willing to accept that country as having a legitimately elected democratic government. Especially if the favoured ethnic group was, say, muslim and the least-favoured was, say, white. But even if it was white christian farmers in Rhodesia deciding that blacks don't get to vote... the US wasn't a big fan of that system, IIRC (although what Trump would do there today doesn't bear thinking about).

    2404:

    You swallowed the anti-Rhodesian propaganda which, like the Brexit ditto, was mostly falsehoods - the situation was MUCH more complex, and most of the fault was in Whitehall and Westminster. The electoral system in Rhodesia was similar to that in the UK before 1884 - yes, it needed change, but it was NOTHING LIKE South Africa.

    2405:

    No, it is NOT code for Jews - though some antisemites may still use it as that. The reason that matters is that 'international financiers', like the extremists in Israel, are using claims of antisemitism as a way of protecting themselves from justified criticism.

    You are right to be concerned about who they will promote to the post of villainous conspiracy, but I am not sure exactly who it will be. It may be 'liberals and intellectuals', which group has an equally long history of being targetted.

    2406:

    You don't get it.

    don't claim to

    It's fucking hilarious though.

    u easily amused in that case

    Just because we liked them and thought their societal influence had been sadly unweighted.

    that is kind of sweet i have to admit

    2407:

    We were discussing the Brexit vote.

    You switched countries mid conversation.

    2408:

    His post applies if you just change "US" to "UK" and "Trump" to "Bozo". Unfortunately :-(

    2409:

    You swallowed the anti-Rhodesian propaganda

    That's entirely possible, although it is worth noting that much of what I know second hand rather than from reading is from disgruntled ex-Rhodesian whites who fled the country at various times, mostly during the transition to Zimbabwaen statehood. One in particular was somewhat concerned at the racial inequality of Rhodesia and the unfortunate treatment of whites who disagreed with those policy positions. He was not, however, any kind of modern liberal anti-racist activist, more an Orwellian liberationalist who believed not in self rule, but in enlightened guidance from the superior minds of the more civilised races. It's entirely possible that you would vehemently agree with him. Or not, depending on what sort of guidance and supplied by whom each of you prefers.

    2410:

    There was a non-binding referendum that disenfranchised quite a few UK citizens who probably would have voted for one side, that is now being treated as a binding decision and mandate by supporters of the other side.

    Yes, some voters were silly and/or short-sighted, but for over here it certainly looks like Britain's right-wing parties have been playing fast-and-loose with the truth — not to mention law and tradition (which I thought were the kind of things conservatives are supposed to respect, but what do I know?) — in order to get somewhere that most people wouldn't have chosen if presented with the choice honestly.

    2411:

    “anti-Rhodesian propaganda”

    You know sometimes I’m pretty busy in RL, and when I come back and look at something here, the first reaction is what-the-actual-fuck, is this something I’m supposed to be taking seriously? It’s distressing because while we’ve disagreed a lot, it’s in a context of agreeing about a lot too. Especially when you started talking about random variable distribution it seemed like there are some interesting paths to explore here, and I bet quite a few would be interested.

    Tony Abbot was a Rhodes scholar, btw. Makes sense when you remember that the Rhodes is mostly about sporting achievement rather than academic, and boxing in particular is the most favoured avenue.

    2412:

    EC @ 2405 Well that ( liberals & intellectuals ) covers at least 98% of the people writing here, doesn't it?

    2413:

    Moz's post (#2409) is horribly correct, but I am referring to the period 1961 to 1964, when a change to universal suffrage could have been achieved without bloodshed. And, despite the propaganda, there WERE blacks in the Rhodesian parliament and there was essentially no apartheid (though there was a lot of discrimination, I agree).

    Whitehall wasn't prepared to consider the special circumstances (which were several, and important) or, really, to negotiate with mere colonists, who had only been self-governing for half a century and were widely considered to have the best-run country in Africa. Oh, yes, a majority of the whites (and the Rhodesian Front) were pretty bigotted and intransigent, so the blame wasn't all in Whitehall. But, when Wilson got in, he pandered to the extremists in his party, and demanded something that was totally unacceptable even to most liberal whites in Rhodesia, or indeed anyone who actually knew about the situation, flatly refusing to negotiate even a transition period. That triggered the UDI.

    I could go into more details if you want.

    Rhodes scholarships are irrelevant to Rhodesia, except that they show that Rhodes wasn't the bigot he is claimed to be by the politically correct. They were originally set up to heal the wounds left by the Boer wars, but were not restricted to that.

    2414:

    The last throes of empire. A pathetic belief that everyone can be powerful - the center of the world - by wishing it so rather than spending 300 years of blood and tears to own half the world.

    When you discover how wrong you are, that's when things will get ugly.

    2415:

    What about

    What they thought mattered. Valid thoughts or not.

    did no one read.

    Yes that does apply to both the UK and the US just now.

    And in the US where I can watch it up close I get the feeling that it has entered cult land. Where you are so emotionally deep into a situation you can no longer bring yourself to consider you might be wrong. Even when you are now supporting things which were abhorrent to you not so long ago. So you continue on the path as the cost of leaving the tribe can no longer be entertained in your mind.

    2416:

    JBS said in #2374: "The thing about BREXIT is I don't understand who really benefits from it."

    You responded with a remark that might, possibly, be a reason that people voted for it, but had NOTHING WHATSOEVER to do with whether they would really benefit from it. I pointed that out in #2398: "What the sheeple think has NOTHING to do with the motives behind Brexit."

    Whether the sheeple had valid thoughts, invalid thoughts or no thoughts at all is IRRELEVANT to who might benefit from it.

    2417:

    mdlve @ 2378: One of the reasons some media outlets cut comments is because they don't accurate reflect the public and thus aren't worth the trouble.

    There's also the problem that so many websites have abdicated their role as discussion platforms to Facebook. If you don't have a big brother Facebook account you're frozen out. They don't want to hear from you & they don't give a shit what you think because they can't monetize you. ("Monetize" - who says all curse words have to be four letters?)

    2418:

    Greg Tingey @ 2392: JBS @ 2357

    "The more likely scenario is he IS impeached AND convicted in the Senate"

    "Oh yeah? REALLY?
    You think enough Rethuglizards will actually vote with the D's to bring him down? Really?
    Justifications for this - or is it like the no-longer-officially-tories here, who can now do what they like & don't care any more?

    They might. At the beginning of Watergate Nixon appeared invulnerable. Although I think there's now a high likelihood the Democrats will impeach on the principle of sometimes you have to stand up and do the right thing even if you know you're going to catch hell for it. "You got to stand for something or you'll fall for anything" (as the saying goes). But I'm not yet ready to predict what the "Rethuglizards" in the Senate will do.

    I was suggesting a more realistic alternative to Jeff Fisher's proposed story-line of Trump being impeached & removed and then running for President again as an "independent outsider".

    IF Trump is impeached AND removed, he couldn't run again, so that's just NOT GOING TO HAPPEN, but there is a possibility that IF Trump were impeached AND removed that he might try defy the judgement of Congress. And again, I'm not prepared to predict how Congressional "Rethuglizards" would react to that.

    JBS @ 2374
    Cui bono? LOTS of very crooked money-speculators, "shorting" the £ & those looking to buy up large swathes of cough bankrupt British Industry, like the ex-BMW-owned mini plant outside Oxford.
    And those on the fringes of fascism, like Farrago & Grease-Samug who see that ultimate addiction, power ... and of course an overlap between thoose two.

    Yes, I understand how the various GREED HEADS think they're going to make a killing off the chaos following BREXIT. And I understand that they do expect to make a killing off the post-BREXIT chaos ...

    I just don't understand how they can be so blind to the reality that even if they do gain a greater share of the power, sex, money ... what have you in a post-BREXIT U.K., their total power, sex, money ... is going to be a lot less than they'd have had if y'all stayed in the E.U. They're going to be little teeny-tiny sharks swimming in a gold-fish bowl.

    What's the old expression about cutting off one's nose to spite one's face?

    2419:

    What's the old expression about cutting off one's nose to spite one's face?

    I've heard this story (or similar ones) attributed to several different cultures, so I'm not certain of its provenance. But it does seem to encapsulate how some people think.

    A powerful magic being comes to someone and says: "You may have anything you wish for. Your worst enemy will get twice as much. What is your wish?"

    The man thinks hard, and wishes to be blind in one eye.

    2420:

    Re the GOP - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-04/donald-trump-s-allies-are-running-out-of-defenses-on-ukraine

    I really think that at some point, some of them are going to break, because they want to stay in Congress and make what money they can off it... and they know if the Dems take full control, some, esp. the "freshmen", are gonig for payback time.

    2421:

    I must say I find it amusing that, in the last few weeks, Faux News has been going crazy trying to figure out how to respond to both the Orange Idiot, who has attacked them for not following his party line*, and trying to figure out how to defend him.

    And this is after he's spent several years literally pushing what they say on the air.

    Of course, they do have to interface with the RW, if only to know what spin will work... and he doesn't.

    • Note that his "party line" more closely resembles a drunkard's walk.
    2422:

    Ah! I'd read he was spending big bucks on Facepalm in anti-impeachment ads, as his "strategy" to stop the impeachment, as though it were a political campaign....

    2423:

    IIRC, the Carter Foundation, started by former President Jimmy Carter, declared that elections in several states, mostly in the US South, were not valid, any more than in some third-world country, in '16.

    2424:

    Brings to mind "The Same To You Doubled" by Robert Sheckley (to bring the conversation back to SF+F 😀)

    2425:

    I don't think it will happen, but it is the law that Trump could be removed but not barred from future office so it could happen.

    2426:

    For those of you who have doubts... lessee, the Orange Idiot was going to send a letter to Speaker of the House Pelosi, saying he wouldn't cooperate with anything unless she held a vote of the full House on the impeachment....

    Let us note that what's happening is an impeachment investigation, not the impeachment itself. If he phrased it that way... he's asking for it.

    This afternoon, I see he's admitting she's got the votes to impeach. Now, about Moscow Mitch and the Senate.... As I've said, Senator is a Big Deal in the US. Either they stay there, or they run for governor, or President, or get invited to serve on corporate boards ($$$$$$$$). And some of the GOP in the Senate want to stay.... "Trump, in August Call With GOP Senator, Denied Official’s Claim on Ukraine Aid" https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-used-potential-meeting-to-pressure-ukraine-on-biden-texts-indicate-11570205661 ... which is a high crime, and cause, itself, for the conviction.

    2427:

    A powerful magic being comes to someone and says: "You may have anything you wish for. Your worst enemy will get twice as much. What is your wish?"

    Slightly more chocolate pudding than I can comfortably eat in one sitting

    (Or a reasonable amount of compassion and forgiveness)

    2428:

    Cant speak to Brexit, but the immigration debate in the US is similar enough that sharing my impressions of that trainwreck is on topic.

    I've spoken to many people who support DT's policies on immigration, and who wish he could get even tougher. They aren't stupid or crazy, they are afraid, and people in fear are inherently irrational. There is also a degree of implicit racism involved. By and large they aren't trying to "gain" anything, they aren't seeking to advance their self-interest, but rather avoid loses, which is, psychologically speaking, a different thing altogether.

    For a lot of these people (pro-Trump Republicans) the idea that the US should spend tax money helping foriegners in any way whatsoever breeds bitter resentment. It's as if the NY Yankees spend some of their budget helping train the Boston Red Sox. It just doesnt make any sense to them, and they can't connect it to their model of how the world works, and how communities of people relate to one another (which is essentially competitive). "A gain for them is a loss for us" seems so obvious and commonplace that they don't seem to know how to question it. When someone they know (like me) asks them to question it, it seems to cause them confusion and anxiety.

    My impression is that asking them to extend tax-supported services to immigrants (esp illegal immigrants) challenges both their world view and their self concept, which is attached to a sense of loyalty to a small, local community (and, by extension, suspicion of anyone outside that small local community).

    A vote for Trump (and perhaps Brexit for all I know) is a vote to protect their mental framework from threat. This isn't rational, but then again, we are all vulnerable to it at some point in time.

    2429:

    Apologies, misunderstood the context and intent of the sentence. I think I mentioned I was just skimming. Thought you were talking about the man rather than the country. Of course we should distinguish strongly between the actions of Rhodes himself and the subsequent activity of Rhodesia. A country, almost definitionally, is a large enough that it will always have redeemable elements (even in places where the redeemable is itself actively repressed).

    There is a Cecil Road in a suburb nearby, while heavily traffic-calmed it is still a useful rat run when the main roads are very busy. There’s a front yard about halfway along with someone’s project, a plywood 40’ or so cabin cruiser set up on a stand... not much progress in the 20 years I’ve been noticing it. Anyhow it’s interesting - an area where most of the houses would have been built in the early 20th century, some of the public infrastructure obviously oriented toward returning WWI or Boer war soldiers. Park with a field cannon that turns out not to have been adequately disabled, that sort of thing.

    I always joked about the name, as though it were actually named for Rhodes, something that the timing makes possible. There’s an Empress Terrace and a ton of places called Jubilee after the 1887 one in the immediate area, so it’s the sort of dry joke you can keep going for a while.

    2430:

    Or a reasonable amount of compassion and forgiveness :-) Thanks for taking the lead on positive outcomes. I'd ask for divine levels of happiness and (love and compassion for all beings)

    2431:

    "A powerful magic being comes to someone and says: "You may have anything you wish for. Your worst enemy will get twice as much. What is your wish?""

    The obvious answer would seem to be something along the lines of "50kg of 235U". But I find a greater personal appeal in "100 pigeons sharing my house".

    2432:

    D M Key @ 2428 Ah yes ... The old fallacy, which seems to have re-appeared, that both politics & "business" are Zero-Sum Games, which they are not. Unfortunately ( To say the least ) both DT & Putin appear to subscribe to this.

    2433:

    "You may have anything you wish for. Your worst enemy will get twice as much. What is your wish?""

    Can you tell me who my worst enemy is, first? That could well affect my answer.

    With that one I'm always tempted to wish for things where twice as much doesn't make sense, like immortality. And I fear that "earth having a survivable climate and inhabited by a sustainable technological society of human beings"... how does my worst enemy get twice as much of that?

    2434:

    I don’t (like to) think I have enemies as such, but there are certainly people I disagree with and who would probably like to oppress me, though I naturally believe this is because they are mistaken, not in possession of the facts and have potentially fixable psychological issues. I don’t think that changes the way I would think it through though - if I can have lots of free education and counselling, I think that I’d be happy for people I disagree with to get more. Especially counselling of a specific nature, around resolving the issues that might make me a bad person. If the wish is more in the magic garden landscape, then I suppose it would be more around the “make me better as a person”, and “make him twice as much better”.

    2435:

    “make me better as a person”

    I've read too many horror stories to be willing to deal with magic pixies, I think. My wish might well be "leave me alone" ... and my worst enemy gets left twice as much alone?

    The question of who is my worst enemy (presumably not meaning "least effective enemy" though) mostly affects the specifics. If it's, say Trump or Bezos or similar ilk, then the Pigeon answer seems quite useful. But if it's merely someone I mortally offended in person then making us both better people seems quite a good idea.

    Actually, I just thought of an amusing hack if said enemy is a powerful person "reduce each of our power by the difference between our current power and the median power in the world". Can you have negative power? Sure, wealth you can, but power?

    2436:

    Well, I'd say your half right but that really over estimates things given that a guess of my being white likely had a 90% chance of being correct.

    As for the other half, a $60k+ salary would be one hell of a wage increase and would instantly solve a lot of my problems, so call that an unlikely dream.

    2437:

    "The old fallacy, which seems to have re-appeared, that both politics & "business" are Zero-Sum Games, which they are not. Unfortunately ( To say the least ) both DT & Putin appear to subscribe to this."

    Well, on any given day they are. It's only in the long term that economics, and the attempt to control economic resources, are more than zero-sum. Unfortunately, bills are due, and battles are fought, in the present.

    2438:

    Assuming it has to be physically possible (ie, not magic) and basically selfish (ie, applies to only you and the enemy) I think one of the better ones is "give me 1/3 of the wealth owned by the richest 1% in the world".

    If you were feeling generous you could make it a smaller fraction, but obviously you can't make it a larger one.

    2439:

    “Well, on any given day they are. It's only in the long term that economics... are more than zero-sum.”

    Not so! Trivially, if it were the case, no trade would be worthwhile. Mutually beneficient trade increases utility. Otherwise social mobility, rags to riches is literally impossible (other than by means of theft).

    Probably you are imagining there is a balance sheet of value, and it there is an underlying principle of conservation of value, like there is for energy or inertia. This is not the case, value is created and destroyed all the time.

    2440:

    I had meant to add, there certainly is a class of actors for whom it is genuinely zero sum. These are the arbitragists, the barratrists, the ones whose part in exchange adds no value but who take a cut anyway. Real estate, property development and the finance industry is full of such actors, and some companies like the K**h group are completely about this sort of thing. There is an ideological pursuit that economics is all zero sum, and that is based on a premise that all exchange is like what they do, or somehow not really valid. Whereas all economic acts are primarily around adding value somehow, or are simple rent seeking.

    We’re in a world where certain sorts of actors demand legislative monopolies, because honest competition does not yield an adequate growth curve. This is also destructive of value overall, and not just in the long term.

    2441:

    is a class of actors for whom it is genuinely zero sum

    Only in the absence of fiat currency, or using a measure of value other than currency. If we take the common economic view that value is measured in money by definition, then value is entirely arbitrary and with sufficient inflationary pressure and government creation of markets any numeric value can be assigned to any given item. The recent use of "quantitative easing" was explicitly about changing the market value of a commodity* via government printing money.

    There's a reason the bitcoin boys and other anti-fiat people like to own a 1000 billion dollar bill from Zimbabwe, much as their predecessors like the German equivalent... it really is possible to bake a billion dollar loaf of bread. And not just as an art project :)

    • said commodity could be described as "political morality" but in most countries it's probably more reasonable to say "house prices" :)
    2442:

    I am afraid that almost everyone is thinking too simplistically. There are two issues here.

    Firstly, in a globally non zero sum game, the optimal strategy is often to play a local zero sum game, damage that locality, and rely on your resources OUTSIDE that locality to pick up the local resources cheaply and/or eliminate competition and leverage your dominance. That is precisely what is going on in Brexit, and why JBS is confused in #2374 and #2418. The point is that the perpetrators's resources are NOT within the UK / tied to the UK economy - I listed the main classes in #2398.

    Secondly, while politics is often a non zero sum game, war is largely a zero sum game, and an almost sure way to lose is to try cooperating when your opponent is trying to conquer or destroy you. The reason that we have Putin in Russia is precisely because Gorbachev and Yeltsin tried cooperation, but NATO, the USA and, later, the EU were playing a zero sum game. Putin was elected and enjoys massive popular support precisely because the Russians realised that, and had had enough. Greg Tingey is correct in #2432, but we have no idea what Putin really thinks, because we have never given him a chance to play a non zero sum game.

    2443:

    Secondly, while politics is often a non zero sum game, war is largely a zero sum game...

    War is almost always a negative sum game. It is, however, sometimes less expensive than not playing it at all.

    2444:

    Correction accepted! Thank you.

    2445:

    Which is why pacifism is a loosing game unless it is embedded into a larger society that is willing to fight when attacked.

    Which is sort of like the DT/BJ situation.

    2446:

    Which is why pacifism is a loosing game unless it is embedded into a larger society that is willing to fight when attacked.

    Can you explain how that works, please? Ideally with reference to groups smaller/weaker than their neighbours.

    When I read nonsense like that I always think of a country like Aotearoa, which is not only smaller and weaker than most of its neighbours, it's almost impossible to defend either militarily or economically. The only real strategy in a warlike world is to ally with a bully and hope not to get eaten (Five Eyes, ANZUS), while trying to create a non-warlike world (UN,WTO etc).

    When France attacked Aotearoa a while ago we didn't fight back with our military, because that would have been suicidal. Instead we used a bunch of anti-war organisations to ask them please not to do that again.

    "be too powerful to attack" is one of those "at most one" things, where as soon as you have a second player trying the same strategy things fall apart. I think nuclear (non)proliferation is a good example of this. When the white nations decided that only nuclear armed nations counted that mostly acted as a really string incentive for nations that don't count to get nukes. Globally we waste an enormous amount of effort playing stupid games with who has nuclear weapons, who is allowed nuclear weapons, and trying to punish weak nations that try to break rules made to spite them.

    2447:

    Seems to me that the quote and the final sentence of your second paragraph are saying pretty much the same thing in different ways.

    2448:

    I suppose I see it more as "there is no larger society"... what larger society is the UN or WTO embedded in that defends them? There's no "Jupiter Space Armada" that will come to our rescue when someone declares war on the UN, and the claim that the USSR or USA are the "larger society" seems laughable (tautologically, even, since both are/were part of the UN).

    It reminds me of all the trolling that pacifists get wrt "pacifism means not fighting, ever, even when attacked", and that definition is somewhat unusual even within the pacifist movement. Many Quakers, for example, will resist being killed or even robbed despite being extremely pacifist by most standards. Switzerland is neutral and pacifist but notoriously has even more firearms per capita than the US... as part of their military defence system.

    Viz, you can be against war and willing to defend yourself. You can also be against war and disagree with the large powers about how best to achieve that (the USA vs Aotearoa nuclear weapons disagreement, for example).

    2449:

    "There was a non-binding referendum that disenfranchised quite a few UK citizens who probably would have voted for one side, that is now being treated as a binding decision and mandate by supporters of the other side."

    In addition, the non-binding referendum was sold on a whole pack of lies ('easiest trade deal ever').

    At this point the Brexit camp has refused a negotiated deal in favor of No Deal.

    It's equivalent of somebody who got you to agree to 'leave your job' (which spans a broad class of behaviors) is now going in as your agent to take a sh*t on your boss's desk.

    2450:

    Sorry, folks, I may have had a more, um, interesting life than most of you. I think my wish would be for a spouse who occasionally accidentally nearly kills me.

    2451:

    One thing you should note in the US: first, decades of anti-government propaganda, and second, when the GOP is in power, they make laws and regulations that explicitly hurt their base. For example, a friend in Ohio was on workman's comp, and they kept asking for more doctor visits, until they ran out the clock, and said, "we were supposed to pay for your doctors, but sorry, it's to late for that"... and meanwhile, Governor Kasich was bragging about how much workman's comp money he'd given back to employers.

    And they cut how long unemployment runs, and make regulations that deliberately split up families - a single mom can get crap coverage, but if she's not single, sorry, she gets nothing.

    2452:

    By the way, folks, I just had an interesting thought about the ultra-rich: they don't actually want a fascist dictatorship... because they've seen, in Germany, for example, how they lose leverage over the government. I think what they really want is a House of Lords, where they play, and which has real power, and a lower house, for the rabble, that can scream and yell, but not make any real change.

    In the US, they've been doing this with the Senate.

    2453:

    whitroth No ... I think they are Fake-"clever" enough to recognise the problems of the past, but, just like the fuckwits in "occupy" "this time it will be different!" .... erm, no, it won't be.

    2454:

    I think my wish would be for a spouse who occasionally accidentally nearly kills me.

    The Sheckley story referenced above ended with him wishing for a wife whose libido was so high he could just barely satisfy her.

    2455:

    Which led teenage me to wonder if the enemy's wife would have a libido twice as much as the enemy could satisfy, or twice as much as the protagonist could satisfy — and if the latter then whether the enemy could provide twice as much satisfaction as the protagonist…

    Why yes, teenage me was a horrible rules-lawyer when playing AD&D. :-)

    2456:

    Why yes, teenage me was a horrible rules-lawyer when playing AD&D. :-)

    I would doubtless have enjoyed making sure that your character was killed horribly by rabid wombats.

    2457:

    whitroth @ 2422: Ah! I'd read he was spending big bucks on Facepalm in anti-impeachment ads, as his "strategy" to stop the impeachment, as though it were a political campaign....

    Don't have an account there, so I couldn't say, but YouTube is fairly overrun with them.

    2458:

    I'd read he was spending big bucks on Facepalm in anti-impeachment ads, as his "strategy" to stop the impeachment, as though it were a political campaign....

    As I understand American politics, it is a political campaign. He has to persuade enough senators not to convict him, and ideally make enough congressmen scared of electoral consequences that they vote against impeachment so that it doesn't reach the senate.

    It's certainly not a criminal trial conducted by a trained and impartial judiciary. (Although with what I've heard about how judges are elected and/or appointed I wonder how impartial your judiciary is, too.)

    2459:

    2132: "Most ordinary Americans would oppose confiscating capital by force." Well, there hasn't been much polling on that so it's hard to say. Best indications are that the fairly large swathe of Americans who own capital would. As for the others, I see no reason to believe that. Granted, "communism" is widely disliked, but that's because of the association with gulags and whatnot. Given the vast wealth divides in America now, "sharing the wealth," that old Huey Long slogan that would probably have elected him as President had he not been assassinated, is quite popular. And Long was quite definite that this involved outright confiscation by force, something Long was fond of, being a fairly dictatorial sort. Certainly Sanders and Warren think so, with their tax schemes that border on the Eisenhower style confiscatory for the top bracket. And your more mainstream Demos have deliberately not been targeting them in the debates, as they suspect they are too popular to mess with.

    2460:

    2132 again (one of the more interesting posts. Question asked, how can you make capitalism work if you are confiscating capital by force? Answer is that you can't of course. The question is whether you can make socialism work through confiscating capital by force, and the answer is that is the only way. Granted that didn't work too well in the USSR, but we Americans have a saying, "if at first you don't succeed, try, try again."

    2461:

    2418: The Democrats can certainly impeach Trump in the House, though the talking heads in the media, remembering the Clinton fiasco, mostly think that would benefit Trump during the 2020 election, and House Republicans as well. But the idea that a Republican Senate might vote to convict is utterly absurd. Yes, they'd quietly prefer Pence as President. But if they did, the Republican party would immediately break into two quarreling pieces and quite possibly cease to exist, and few of the Republican Senators would have much chance of being re-elected, whichever way they voted. This ain't Watergate. Nixon wasn't impeached because of the burglary, but because America was exploding, riots in the streets, losing a major war in Vietnam, and Watergate was just the tip of the iceberg for thuggery much worse than anything Trump has managed to do yet. CIA torture and assassinations, COINTELPRO, MKULTRA, you name it. According to some accounts, Nixon seriously considered mounting a military coup to stay in office, but Al Haig talked to the generals first and persuaded them not to go that route.

    2462:

    Robert Prior @ 2458:

    "I'd read he was spending big bucks on Facepalm in anti-impeachment ads, as his "strategy" to stop the impeachment, as though it were a political campaign...."

    As I understand American politics, it is a political campaign. He has to persuade enough senators not to convict him, and ideally make enough congressmen scared of electoral consequences that they vote against impeachment so that it doesn't reach the senate.

    It's certainly not a criminal trial conducted by a trained and impartial judiciary. (Although with what I've heard about how judges are elected and/or appointed I wonder how impartial your judiciary is, too.)

    Your understanding is, as we say here, "Close enough for government work!".

    On the whole, where judges are/were appointed (especially those having to be confirmed by the Senate) they're more impartial than elected judges ... although that has been changing in the last decade or so with the hyper-partisan Federalist Society having taken over the selection process for judicial nominations on the GOP side.

    They're not just Gerrymandering Congressional Districts and state legislatures.

    2463:

    Robert Prior @ 2458:

    As I understand American politics, it is a political campaign.

    I think of it as an employment performance review, one conducted by the Legislative Branch. The intent of impeachment (synonyms: accusation, indictment) by the House and possible subsequent conviction by the Senate is to decide whether or not a Federal officer has been fulfilling his/her oath of office, either doing the job or screwing up and failing. Federal officers judged to have woefully failed get sacked (and sometimes also told 'and also you are blacklisted for future employment'). That's what it's about.

    It's frequently been clarified -- correctly -- that impeachment/conviction is not a criminal-law process. However, the usual fallback explanation that (therefore) it's a political process isn't quite on the mark, either. Unfortunately, the Founding Fathers' term 'high crimes and misdemeanours' is particularly unhelpful, falsely suggesting to modern ears a criminal-law framing. The correct framing, IMO, is: performance review and possible consequent sacking.

    Hope that helps.

    (FWIW, the phrase 'high crimes and misdemeanours' appears to have been a last-minute kludge after a lot of arguing. The term 'high' means serious, not just petty stuff, and the rest means ''serious failure to fulfil the applicable oath of office'.)

    Over the run-time of the US Constitution's applicability, impeachment/conviction's been mostly used to review the performance of Federal judges and sometimes sack them, for a variety of colourful reasons including drunken incompetence.

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