Today is December 6th. The UK left the EU most of a year ago, but a transition agreement is in effect; it expires on December 31st, and negotiations between the British government and the EU appear to be on the rocks.
How did we get here and where are we going?
It's clear now that the Conservative party has, since 2017, succumbed to entryism by a faction of extreme right wing xenophobes who, in alliance with a cadre of rapacious disaster capitalists, intend to ram through a Brexit that does not involve any kind of working trade agreement with the EU. The 2019 leadership contest and Alexander de Pfeffel Johnson's subsequent election victory handed control over the UK government to this shit-show of idiots, racists, and grifters, led by a second-rate Donald Trump cosplayer with a posh accent and a penchant for quoting half-remembered classical Greek poetry (badly).
The 80-seat Conservative majority in the House of Commons puts Johnson in an invidious position: he's simultaneously on top of the external opposition (Labour—the SNP have effectively been silenced for the past 4 years in Westminster by a tacit Tory/Labour agreement to pretend they don't exist) but vulnerable to internal opposition by the back-bench Tory headbangers. Even if he wanted a trade deal (I'm pretty sure he doesn't) Johnson can't put one in front of his own party without risking a rebellion and leadership challenge. And for Johnson, gamesmanship is everything: it's all about being Prime Minister, not doing the job of Prime Minister. His catastrophic and indecisive handling of COVID19, coupled with outrageous cronyism and blatant corruption in the testing and PPE contract process, is a mirror to his conduct of Brexit and the clearest possible demonstration that he's an unfit person to lead the nation in its biggest peacetime crisis since 1945, much less two crises of that magnitude, one of them self-inflicted, running simultaneously.
Johnson is an arch-bullshitter. He doesn't want to look as if he's aiming for a cliff-edge Brexit situation, but it's his goal (he hasn't done his homework and doesn't understand or care about the long-term implications), so he's participating in negotiations in bad faith. It's clear that his intention is to equivocate until one of the EU26 (probably France, at this point) walks out in exasperation: at this point, he can declare that there's no scope for a Brexit deal but blame the EU for the subsequent economic and political catastrophe. Because never accepting blame for anything is as much Boris Johnson's shtick as Donald Trump's.
A lot of bullshit swirls around the issue of the common fisheries policy. Fisheries are a £400M industry in the UK at this point—chicken feed. But it's a great pretext to drive a stake in the ground (or seabed) and declare an irreconcilable gulf that cannot be bridged. The English have folk memories of the 1970s Cod War with Iceland, and of interminable arguments over the CFP in the 1980s. Johnson's going to play power chords in the key of taking back control over an industry that's worth less than Edinburgh's tourist shops, and he's going to use it as a pretext to run down the clock.
Incidentally, Brexit is best understood (by non-Brits) as an English nationalist project—English nationalism always labels itself as British, because English identity presumptively appropriates and subsumes everything else in the four kingdoms on a whim. It's a romantic utopian dream of autonomy and supremacy, and it's unachievable (that world never existed in the first place). Because it's an impossible dream Brexit can never fail, it can only be betrayed. And so backsliding will not be tolerated in the leadership. Which is why Johnson is on the hook: if he slackens in his zeal his own party will turn on him, like Trumpists turning on a Republican legislator who concedes that Joe Biden might have actually won the presidential election.
I'm calling it for "no deal" at this point. So what happens next?
January 1st: a new customs regime comes into effect around the main ports at Dover, Harwich, Felixstowe, etc. Trucks can't enter Kent without completed export forms, using an IT system that HMRC say won't be ready until March. There's a giant lorry park there, with queuing for 7000 vehicles, which has no toilet facilities and has already flooded a couple of times (it's on a flood plain). Moreover it assumes the average customs delay will be only a couple of hours. I think this is optimistic in the extreme: there may well be tailbacks all the way to the M25 (London's orbital motorway) and reports of fresh produce perishing before it can clear customs in either direction.
It's worth noting that our container ports are already logjammed, with huge delays building up: stuff is getting stuck there either as a side-effect of COVID19 lockdown or in anticipation of Brexit. But it's going to get much, much worse after January 1st.
EHIC cards stop working and health insurance for British travellers in the EU will promptly cost about 20-25% more. Folks who own holiday/second homes in Spain and France (or elsewhere) will suddenly discover they can't spend more than 3 months out of any 6 month period living in their homes, and that if they rent them out they'll be liable for high levels of tax. (Me, I probably won't be able to attend SF conventions in the EU without applying for a visa: it is, after all, a work-related activity and we've lost free movement rights too.)
With no trade agreement, WTO standard tariffs on imports from the EU come into force. These tariffs, contra lies spread in the British press (which are almost wholly in the pocket of pro-Brexit media oligarchs) will come out of the pockets of consumers—meaning the 40% of our food that is imported from the EU will cost 10-30% more, a tax that falls disproportionately on the poor.
I can't help thinking that this tax on food is part of the plan: we've seen rampant cronyism and corruption in the Johnson government, and if they continue on form they will want to raise money somewhere. Stealing it from the mouths of starving children would be nothing new in view of the Tory resistance to funding school meals for kids with laid-off parents due to COVID19. Expect the money to be spent on commissioning studies and products for streamlining import/export facilities at our ports—outsourced on unadvertised contracts to the chumocracy, of course. (That's just the latest blatant example: a sinecure at the institutionally racist and misogynist Home Office for a close friend of the PM's fiancée.)
But that's a digression ...
Weird shortages will show up on the British high street almost immediately. Cut flowers, for example, are almost overwhelmingly imported on overnight ferries from nurseries in the Netherlands: expect Interflora to take a huge hit, and many high street florists to shutter, permanently. Those displays of cut flowers near the entrances of supermarkets will be a thing of the past. So will cheap "basics" ranges of canned food: they're already vanishing from supermarket shelves, in a move that is probably intended to prepare consumers for the coming sticker shock as average food prices rise 15-20% in a month.
There will be a near-crisis in Northern Ireland as more than 200 border crossings have to either carry out customs inspections or close. The Good Friday agreement is in jeopardy if free movement across the border goes. More to the point, about half the food wholesalers supplying shops in the North have announced that they're just going to give up that market, unless streamlined arrangements can be made. Some businesses will simply become non-viable: milk, for example, is in some cases currently trucked across the border multiple times between the farm gate and the dairy (as roads wind across the border) and butter or cheese processing involves movement between facilities on different sides of an arbitrary line on a map that requires VAT and duty assessment at each step. But let's ignore Northern Ireland for a bit.
In England, Nissan have already very politely indicated that they will stop producing cars in the UK in event of no deal being reached: their supply chains are integrated across the EU. One example given a year ago was that components of the transmission of a (BMW manufactured) Mini crosses the UK/EU border half a dozen times before it's bolted onto the car, as specialized operations are carried out at facilities in different nations. Brexit seems likely to impose additional manufacturing overheads of 10-20% on the automobile industry. I expect major car plants to begin to close by mid-January. We can also probably say goodbye to continued production of Airbus components in the UK—the exact same logistic headaches apply. That's a £105Bn industry and a £11Bn industry both on the brink of non-viability due to Brexit.
Banking is going to be hit as the EU has no intention of allowing external banks to continue trading in Euros. Many of the major investment banks have already carried out nameplate moves to Dublin, Paris, and Frankfurt: that process will accelerate rapidly.
Note that these industries—aviation and automobile manufacturing, financial services, imports—are not the same as the industries that took a hit from COVID19 (transport, hospitality, retail). So the impact of a no-deal Brexit is additive to the impact of COVID19; the one cannot be used to conceal the other.
Great! Disaster capitalism ahoy!
During the initial months of the COVID19 pandemic, Chancellor Rishi Sunak rolled out a gigantic financial aid package (or at least it looked gigantic: it turns out that more of it stuck to the fingers of large corporate Conservative donors than to anyone else's wallet) to keep the economy alive albeit in suspended animation through months of lockdown. In so doing, he got the British public used to the idea of Keynsian stimulus again. The public understanding of economics is primitive, with many people thinking of government revenue (taxation and spending) in terms of a family budget, rather than realizing that money is something that governments can create or destroy pretty much at will (the drawbacks being inflation/deflation) and that financial institutions can also generate by creating and leveraging debt. This was used to drive public support for austerity between 2008 and 2015, a policy which led to over 100,000 excess deaths in the UK, reports of unemployed people starving to death, of benefits claimants being sanctioned for non-completion of employment interviews (while they were on their way to a hospital due to a heart attack brought on by the stress of the interview), and similar. Popular support for austerity has mostly wilted, but COVID19 provided a brisk refresher course in Keynsian stimulus spending—and also gave the new generation of Tory looters a refresher course in corrupt self-dealing and cronyism.
What we're going to see next is a British government "emergency bailout for the economy" to "cushion the impact of Brexit". Of course, most of this will go to their corporate backers and friends, in the biggest Mafia style bust-out since 2008.
By March the random food shortages and chaos on the motorways should be coming under control as a "new normal" prevails. People will get used to empty shelves, after all. There will be a significant economic shock, but printing half a trillion pounds of virtual banknotes (and handing half of it to their friends) should paper over the cracks for a bit. The Tory press will blame half of the disruption on COVID19, and the other half on the EU (who did not vote for Brexit). The vaccine roll-out is ring-fenced: the government have already announced that they'll deploy military logistics capacity to ensure the Turkish-designed and German-manufactured doses arrive in the UK without getting stuck in the lorry queues at Felixstowe.
There will of course be an ongoing drip of outrageous news to keep the papers happy. I expect the Home Office to savagely turn on EU residents in the UK who have applied for and received indefinite leave to remain, because that's what the Home OFfice always does (did I mention institutional racism earlier?). They're already logjammed with visa applications with insane consequences (here's a nurse who's been driven out of the NHS by Home Office visa fuck-uppery). It's going to turn hostile to everyone—if you don't have a passport already, you should probably make sure you've got one and it's up to date just in case you need to prove that you're legally entitled to live here. (Oops, that's just another £120 tax bill coming due.) Industries will go bust or shut down progressively, not all on January 1st, so there'll be plenty of stuff to keep the news cycle going. MPs will of course denounce foreign investors who pull out as traitors or slackers.
Some time in February/March, the Falkland Isles will hit a crisis point. 80% of their income is based on exports from squid fisheries to Spain and Portugal—which are in the EU, and which mean Falklands-caught squid will be priced out of the market due to tariffs. Expect to see the RAF sailing or flying in food parcels to Port Stanley.
I nearly forgot to mention Gibraltar (which voted Remain by about 98%, and was ignored). The Rock is going to be in trouble; there may be some sort of arrangement by which Gibraltar is conveniently ignored by HM Government and treated as being outside the UK so that the frontier can be kept open, but otherwise Gibraltar is going to need Berlin Air-Lift style supply shipments from January 2nd. Of course the current shower, despite all their bloviation about sovereignty and taking back control, will probably be happy to sell Gibraltar back to Spain in due course (once attention is elsewhere): see also the Thatcher government's dealings with Argentina in 1980-81.
During March/April there's going to be the distraction of another storm on the horizon.
Scotland voted "remain" by a 62/38 margin; support for EU membership has hardened since the referendum, and seems to have transferred to support for independence (and possible re-accession). In 15 consecutive opinion polls since the November 2019 general election, support for Scottish independence has never dropped below 50% (and has been as high as 58%). There is going to be a Scottish parliamentary election on May 6th and the most recent polling shows the SNP getting over 55% of the vote, with more votes than the Conservatives and Labour combined: they're likely to receive a large absolute majority in Holyrood. The SNP have made a committment to an early post-Brexit Independence referendum a manifesto pledge. (They're not the only party to do so: the Scottish Green Party—disclaimer: I am a member—have also done so.) The Greens also regularly get seats in Holyrood: the upshot is that there will almost inevitably be a government with a committment to holding an independence referendum as soon as possible.
The constitutional position here gets murky, fast. Johnson has stated that he will refuse to grant an Article 30 order permitting a binding referendum on independence. But he's always capable of reversing himself. More to the point, a non-binding consultative referendum may be legally within the powers of the Scottish parliament, using the legislative framework left over from 2014. A significant majority voting "leave" in a non-binding referendum would be a horrible problem for Johnson—the 2016 Brexit referendum was also "non-binding, consultative".
This is not a blog essay about Scottish independence, so please don't start discussing it in the comments: I'm just noting that it's the next political crisis currently scheduled to hit the UK after Brexit (although it could always be pre-empted by the Northern Ireland troubles re-igniting, some other part of the UK seceding, COVID21 putting in an unwelcome appearance, a dinosaur-killer asteroid, and so on).
Your takeaway should be that the UK has just been through 13 very turbulent months (from the 2019 general election upset, via COVID19, to the current mess), but we're only just approaching the threshold of a year that looks likely to continue COVID19 for the first half (at least), with added economic crisis, probable civil disobedience and unrest, a risk of the NHS collapsing, a possible run on Sterling, and then a constitutional crisis as one or more parts of the United Kingdom gear up for a secession campaign.
Happy Christmas! Now tell me what I've missed?
PS: the point of the title is that we're in the weird position of having a self-defined "conservative" government who are actually Jacobinite revolutionaries (with a leavening of deeply corrupt, self-dealing kleptocrats, as revolutionary movements are usually fertile hosts for parasites). The ongoing culture wars they've imported from their US opposite numbers are typical of their need to impose their totalizing, deeply anti-progressive ideology on every aspect of the state (including public opinion).
PPS: do I sound like I'm angry? Of course I'm fucking angry!
Once you get to 7,000 lorries sitting in a muddy field outside Ashford that's the majority of the regular cross channel drivers. So until some get to actually continue the queue can't get any longer as you need the ones stuck to get to their destination and make the return trip.
This is not much of a silver lining.
There won’t be customs inspections on the border in Northern Ireland. The Withdrawal Agreement that was signed in January prevents that. The customs inspections will be between GB and NI, not between Ireland and NI.
Fine: then food suppliers selling from the mainland into NI are going to be running into customs barriers (and NI is only going to be exporting via the EU). It's still going to be a fucked-up mess.
You've missed the love of the English for the occasion to show a stiff upper lip. As a result, I do not think there will be a revolution.
Here's a fun angle for you Charlie: On Jan 20th the Russian psyop targeting Western democracy will be dealt a significant blow as Asset T leaves his position of influence (my current hope is that he refuses to, and the US Marshalls tase him and drag him out on his copious behind, drooling and soiling himself in full view of the world's TV cameras).
From a direct influence point of view, this leaves Johnson in a bit of a pickle as he no longer has an ideological match driving a trade deal from the US side. And in fact Joe Biden has signalled very strongly that he won't put up with comedy capers involving the GFA and infractions of international law.
Meanwhile that nice Mr Putin will be looking to re-distribute his assets in the countries where the psyop is still largely running to plan. I notice Nigel Farage has just started a couple of new ventures but I'm sure that's just a coincidence. Similarly Evgeny Lebedev getting a seat in the Lords probably has nothing to do with anything.
Hopefully someone reading here might know: Is the reinsurance market, Lloyd's, ready for the financial disruptions to operations?
That would be the Withdrawal Agreement that Johnson and his merry Kleptocrat Klub have repeatedly disavowed? The one they've introduced a piece of legislation specifically to break? That the EU is taking legal action to try and maintain?
That Withdrawal Agreement?
I think one bit you've missed is when Johnson leaves and the new guy sweeps in saying "it's nothing to do with me, 'guv; it was all the fault of that moptop idiot and his Labour enablers. It's a shame that we're going to have to sell off the NHS and destroy what remains of local government as a result of their abject failure, but remember folks - it's nothing to do with me. Look at those shiny new aircraft carriers over there."
And somehow, this will work. Again. Labour are still blamed for the 2008 crash, and yet the Tories were not punished for austerity. (reminder: the LibDems were the ones who took the blame for that because they had the temerity to turn out to be willing to compromise with a party that only knows how to act in bad faith as the last four years have shown in spades.)
It's hard not to admire really. Teflon feels wholly inadequate to describe it.
Also, of course, the quantity of cross-channel trade is about to drop off a cliff - the estimate is that the number of permits available for UK drivers to enter the EU after Jan 1st is about 10% of the number who currently do so. And for some reason it's getting very hard to find drivers/firms on the continent who are willing to come to the UK.
Mind you, a catastrophic drop in imports of food, medicine, and other necessary goods isn't much of a silver lining either. I suppose it might be a "silver-coloured" lining of liquid mercury in the aerosol faeces making up the brexit cloud.
We're now pretty much certain to head into the kind of "no-deal with no-prep" nightmare territory that some of us were worried about 2 years ago. The food riots could start within a week (the UK supermarket supply chain normally holds roughly enough food for three days, and every gram of surplus is currently occupied with Christmas specials). Since we're currently being governed by a bunch whose demonstrated attitude to expertise and (other people's) risk was killing a couple of thousand (mostly disabled) people a month even before the pandemic started, and has given us both the highest death rate in europe AND the highest economic losses from covid-19 ... I'm expecting hundreds of thousands of brexit deaths, and fearing a total in the millions over a year or two.
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On GB/NI borders and novel political crises, Ynys Mon remains largely unprepared for whatever happens next, even by contrast with Kent.
A mess with both the Gog/Cardiff division and WG/UK Gov divisions available for stoking.
Yevgeny Lebedev was granted the title of "Baron Lebedev of Hampton and Siberia". That wouldn't have happened without a nod from Uncle Vlad.
A lot depends on what the Government do with the Internal Markets Bill. The only thing that is guaranteed is that NI's border activity will change, though whether it's the NI/IR or NI/GB border is an unknown.
I don't think there's going to be anything at all regular about this, and even the silver lining could be conspicuous by it's absence.
It doesn't make sense to me to add to an already overburdened system, but - I wouldn't be in any way surprised if a significant proportion of the usually UK-only lorry drivers get directed to Kent anyway as shortages kick in.
Yevgeny Lebedev was granted the title of "Baron Lebedev of Hampton and Siberia". That wouldn't have happened without a nod from Uncle Vlad.
I just realised what a flex this is by Putin on Farage. Farage is desperate for a knighthood or a seat in the Lords, and here's Putin showing him how easily it can be done... but not for him.
Yup: The "Comservative & Unionist party" of Churchill, Macmillan, Heath & Thatcher (!) no longer exists. It's astonding to realise that "Maggie" would be horrified by all this - she was one of the original, principal proponents of "the single market". a Brexit that does not involve any kind of working trade agreement with the EU. The next week will see, won't it? There is enormous pressure, elsewhere & in the remaining "left" (cough) of the tories for SOME sort of basic free-trade deal. As I said yesterday, I've given up predicting, as the meter is swinging so wildly. Correction: bigggest peactime crisis since 1685 ..... Agreed about fisheries being a pretext - we GAVE our quotas away - or sold them - what hypocrisy. The EHIC scrapping is utterly needless self-harm - why? By March the random food shortages and chaos on the motorways should be coming under control as a "new normal" prevails. BETS? - actually, I think it will all blow up, very messily, about the first/second week of February.
@ 1: NOT "Jacobin" - more like the Rightist ultras behind Chrales X - or, much more locally applicable - the rightists & religious reactionaries who persuaded Britain ( England actually ) that James II & VII was all right & acceptable - see also my comment about 1685. If you want corruption: WHY is money being given to "Palantir" & its deeply unsettling fascist boss, P Theil?
Niala UNTIL you push them too far. As I've indicated, I think we are in for a re-run of 1685-88/9
Chrisj YES - it's deliberate - BoZo is trying to get the EU to walk away, because he's a lying shit who can't be trusted - but they saw that one coming & dodged.... Food riots in about a week I would give it until some time between the 14th & the 20th, but no longer than that. THEN WHAT?
QUESTION: James II / VII lasted 6/2/1685 - 11/12/1688 How long do we give this fiasco?
Clive Summerfield "The Internal Markets Bill" will be rejected by the Lords AGAIN - & Lizzie might not sign, or at least send it back for reconsideration - as she is supposed to uphold the Law, not break it!
The problem with trying to analyze this is that you are generally a sane person who is looking at the economic consequences.
White supremacy is crazy-pants; it's the idea that because you are easily sunburned, you are morally superior in an enormous over-riding way (the only human-appearing thing that actually has a soul, in the basic formulation) that makes your rape, murder, arson, and piracy moral goods.
Colonialism is how you moderate white supremacy into an unjust and exploitative but functioning system.
Take away the colonialism and there are two choices; give up white supremacy or give up everything else, because you can't get a functioning social system out of white supremacy, it refuses any concept of constraints; anything a white man wants to do is by definition God's will.
So there are three things going on, leaving out the relatively trivial Russian desire to be the last nuclear power by means of social engineering.
There's a big pool of mostly men, mostly uneducated, who have nothing but an identity as white. They're not skilled, they're not able to become skilled, and their experience of life is unjust. It's very easy to get them to blame anyone but themselves. (To be tooth-gratingly fair, they have been systemically screwed over; to be anything like just, one has to point out they've participated in the screwing and can't seem to pay enough attention to notice the blame gets apportioned in the wrong places.) This is the xenophobe vote, and because the rage-high is fleeting, this is an input that won't accept constraints on violence. You're going to be normal or they're going to kill you, and never mind if you are able to be normal under their shifting definition.
There's this bunch of mammonites; they believe money is a replacement for whiteness. (Money is the material love of God, and if you have money, you can do what you like.) They don't understand money or the economy at all; money is how we ration agency on the scale of societies, the value arises from the exchange, and you need a sovereign -- and thus a fairly complex society -- to have money at all. They are energetic idiots of the first order, though, and pursue money as though themselves pursued by demons. So nearly everybody who doesn't have a specific interest believes what they keep repeating about money, markets, and so on, despite nigh-all of it being obvious bullshit. Mammonites don't accept constraints on theft, broadly defined; slavery is theft, and they're intensely in favour of slavery. (You work to enrich them or you die, slavery, however institutionally accomplished.) Straight up political corruption is theft, too.
The third group are aristos; they got out of the colonial era not money (of course they have money) or xenophobia (of course everyone else is inferior) but authority. These are the n-th generation heirs of the pirate kingdom, who expect that their word is law and that the world exists to give them what they want, ideally without them having to articulate the want. (If you have to say what you want, the minions are not sufficiently frightened of your displeasure.) And they do have money, and they do have power, and they will not accept constraints on authority. The goal is to make extremely sure that all the social mechanisms -- and we are talking some pre-Duke-of-Wellington's-premiership mechanisms here! -- which function as barriers to their authority are removed.
Brexit is a joint project to get these three disparate groups what they want.
Destroying the City of London, that great engine of the English economy, is a goal of the Brexit project, because money is an alternate source of authority (to the aristos, definitionally intolerable); to the mammonites, it's people who aren't them with money. To the xenophobes, any banker is a focus of antisemitism.
Destroying the UK economy is not how anyone is thinking of it, but removing the barriers to authority and slavery and violence is more important to the Brexit project than any weird abstraction like "society" or "economy"; right now, to the people involved, nothing is working properly. It has to be destroyed so it can be replaced with something which does.
So, yeah, it's meant to do that. To the people running it, doing those things will mean it succeeded.
Why so optimistic? There's still plenty of room to fuck up COVID vaccines without even getting into the rapidly rising crop of anti-vaxers. I'd rate the chance of a reasonable rollout of a vaccine around 70% or so, maybe less given that Brexit negotiations were also a "must not fail" project and failure was... actually an option. (that's a "gut" number guess though, admittedly)
If that happens then I'd predict a strong return to "herd immunity" rhetoric before the issue is resolved, lengthening the health, social, and economic fallout. I may however just be projecting my fears for the US on to my cousins across the pond.
The desire for independence might not run along only along the borders of the nations. Here in the People's Democratic Republic of Manchester there is an overwhelming Labour majority, but our Mayor was popular with non-Labour voters even before he faced down Johnson over Johnson trying to use the city pour encourager les autres on Covid. It wouldn't actually happen in Manchester because the city was heavily split on Brexit, but I don't think it's impossible that London decides it's had enough - and that could get interesting.
The EHIC scrapping is utterly needless self-harm - why?
Stuff I forgot to mention: the UK exiting Euratom (because apparently the 1957 Euratom agreement broke May's "red line" on free movement by requiring free movement for nuclear security personnel), which is going to bone our access to supplies of medical radioisotopes.
So don't get cancer in 2021, okay?
Oh, another thing I forgot in the original post: GDPR disappears on January 1st, leaving us exposed to foreign personal data mining and in the hands of a government that has already gutted the data protection registrar and is happy to sell us down the river to Palantir.
That's a little trans-Atlantic for direct applicability here, but it's worryingly hard to refute.
I note that the regions are generally far less okay with any two out of three of those factions than the parliamentary core (I'm not saying "London" here because London is on the same continuum of diversity as Toronto: London voted against Brexit). Scotland in particular is totally not okay with this shit, and has a weirdly non-standard formulation of nationalism that is at odds with the global standard for neo-Nazis. (Ignore Greg: he gets his media bubble from the London press, who Do Not Get Scotland at all -- like trying to understand Canadian politics purely from the Washington Post.)
So don't get cancer in 2021, okay?
Or presumably a bunch of other things that use radioactive materials for imaging. When my blood pressure got erratic enough the medical people wanted to look at a number of possibilities, the noninvasive scan for heart and heart artery problems used enough technetium-99m that they gave me a letter to use at airport security if I had to fly within the next three days, because I was going to set off the detectors.
Graydon Not even wrong on the "Aristos", but spot-on for everything else, especially trashing London ( see below )
Charlie Yeah ... EHIC was a placeholder for a LONG LIST of "useful thinbs" we are going to be without for no reason at all, actually. Didn't know about GDPR - that's just the diahorrea topping on the shit cake, isn't it?
( SNP ) No - again - I get some on Scotland from the NSS, who are not happy bunnies & from two encounters with SnotsNats, in London, sneering at anything & everything English, denying we had any culture at all & behaving generally like the petty little xenophobes that they were. Oh & I do, occasionally, read "The Scotsman". But, in case you hadn't noticed, the tories are busy rubbishing London, playing up to the provincial xenophobic racists & robbing us blind, even before Brexshit ....
julesjones It's many years since my sojurn in Manchester, but you are correct, we could easily revolt - we are fucked-off with both our previous & our present Mayor & we want to continue to be a World City, not the ruins of Athens
There's enormous amounts of individual expression, yeah. (Dougie's refusal to pay for track-and-trace in Ontario would take a few thousand words to explain, for example.)
But the general post-colonial constraint refusal as a post-national movement of capital? Capital wants slavery, and finds common cause with other slave-holders and would-be slave holders. The Rifle Requirement from 1860 through 1915 was a unique period in history, and that's where nigh-all the democracy and general agency we've got arises. We don't automatically keep it.
There's this idea that civilisations fall when the parasitism gets too bad, and the parasitism gets too bad when not enough people can image the collapse; it's always been that way, it will keep going forever no matter what anyone does.
It there's history, there's going to be a word -- there may be a vocabulary -- for this outlook we're seeing now in its various local expressions in Anglosphere politics. I would like to know that word, and from which language it derives.
So what's BoJo or Gove or any other Bullingdon Club member if not an aristo?
(It's a multi-century institution, you can't say it's a social aberration.)
Not subject to expectations of competence, presumption of significance, lavished with money for doubtful work, narrowly defined peers, disdain for opinions outside that self-defined set of peers, habit of regarding laws as opinions, all of the complex is there. The exercise of authority remains indirect, but they clearly don't like that and equally clearly work to render it direct again.
Both of which you mentioned:
The arts.
A £111+ billion industry that's going to have touring to and from Europe utterly smashed. This is a good summary of the pain: https://twitter.com/Howard_Goodall/status/1326554078256656389
Trans healthcare.
Accessing this is going to get even harder (it was already effectively impossible via NHS). Esp. with the recent, very transphobic ruling effectively preventing trans youth receiving puberty blockers. https://mermaidsuk.org.uk/news/qa-understanding-the-high-court-hormone-blockers-judgment-with-director-of-legal-and-policy-lui-asquith/
And not even including how the pandemic has made the last year way harder for artists and trans people.
Destroying the City of London, that great engine of the English economy, is a goal of the Brexit project, because money is an alternate source of authority (to the aristos, definitionally intolerable); to the mammonites, it's people who aren't them with money. To the xenophobes, any banker is a focus of antisemitism.
I think you may have missed on this one. What the ultra-wealthy apparently want is for the City of London to become an offshore financial center for the EU. This is fairly straightforward, as (I think) most offshore financial havens are either British dependencies or former British dependencies (Channel Islands, Cayman Islands, Cook Islands, etc.) and so the model they've used to gut those economies should transfer if England gets beaten down. That model is laws that backstop the accumulation and retention of wealth gathered worldwide, and a populace unable to do anything about it. Since legal trusts, corporations, and charities are the major wealth holding structures, and all three of them were well-elaborated under English law long before others got in the act, there's a certain symmetry to doing this.
In this model, the ultra-rich may even welcome Scotland, NI and Wales splitting off from England, because that gets the troublemakers out (in the spirit of the India-Pakistan divide), puts the EU borders on land again, and makes it easier for them to control an England independent of EU banking regs.
As for the right-wing authoritarian followers (to use Altemeyer's version), they're pretty crap at organizing to overthrow the elite, so they're "safe" to have around as dependent English subjects.
Greg: "The Internal Markets Bill" will be rejected by the Lords AGAIN - & Lizzie might not sign, or at least send it back for reconsideration - as she is supposed to uphold the Law, not break it!
It passed its 3rd reading in the Lords last Wednesday, so it looks like Boris' appointment of 36 new Peers may have tipped the balance. As for Her Maj, after the way last year's prorogation went, I have little confidence that she'll do anything other than rubber-stamp it. Just another nail in the coffin of the Monarchy (hopefully). Which may well be the only discernible benefit of this whole sorry mess.
Oh yeah, one question no one wants to answer:
Does Queen Elizabeth get the dubious honor of presiding over the entire devolution of the British Empire to little England? Or will it be her son or grandson who gets to become the figurehead of the Isles? I'm thinking that Harry bugging out was one of the more sensible things that could have happened.
In other random news, I noticed yesterday that the execrable but memorable movie Reign Of Fire was set in the UK in 2020. So...maybe it will be a good thing if subterranean construction comes to a halt for a little while?
Getting back to the original post, I think one thing that you missed, Charlie, was when you run short of things to post this spring, and turn the blog over to Greg Tingey to give instructions on how to do
Vendettavictory gardens so that everyone suffering through the Greater Depression of 2021 has some food in the back patio.About the only thing that can be confidently predicted is that this whole mess will be analyzed for generations to come, and taught in classes around the world.
I think missing in placing a lot of the blame though has to go to the large trans-national businesses that are about to get hurt badly.
As noted by OGH, Nissan is yet again making noises about the impact of Brexit - but that is a large part of the problem - it's all noise.
If on the other hand Nissan, Ford, and all the other big manufacturers had on day 1 of the Brexit process being invoked after the referendum started the process of leaving the UK then things could have turned out differently.
What happens if in 2017 Nissan opens a plant in say Spain while closing their UK operations, followed by several other large employers? It immediately put the claims by the Brexiters to be the obvious lies they are, and perhaps alters the course of history as enough of the public start to panic when claims of fear mongering fail upon the obvious evidence of Nissan cars being made in Spain.
Does Labour kick out Corbyn earlier, with the unions abandoning him as their members lose jobs? Does it prevent the northern red wall from going blue, preventing a Boris majority?
The whole problem of Brexit is that is has remained a theoretical word game with no consequences to change opinion until it is too late.
And in fact Joe Biden has signalled very strongly that he won't put up with comedy capers involving the GFA and infractions of international law.
The problem is that Biden has removed the GFA from the equation from a British perspective.
Biden is now saying he won't be considering any trade deals in his 4 years as he wants to solidify US business first so they can better take advantage of any future trade deals.
This means regardless of whether the GFA is kept or broken, the UK will not get a US trade deal until after 2024 (at the earliest).
4 years is an eternity in politics, so Boris and company may now view breaking the GFA as a worthwhile cost given the US deal is essentially "unobtanium" from their perspective.
I'm not sure anybody in the European Union will believe that Johnson will adhere to anything is signed up.
Food riots in about a week I would give it until some time between the 14th & the 20th, but no longer than that. THEN WHAT?
A mass exodus of English people to other countries, thus bringing the population of England to the point where it can self sustain and the rich can return to be Lord's of their estates in a "civilized manner" while playing with their money in their now on-shore tax haven?
Does Queen Elizabeth get the dubious honor of presiding over the entire devolution of the British Empire to little England?
I reckon the departure of Scotland would be the death of her. Leaving Charles to preside over the exit of Northern Ireland and Wales from the Union. Would be ironic that the longest serving Prince of Wales was monarch when Wales leaves after 850 years.
Here's a good article https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/brexiteers-line-up-ireland-as-they-play-blame-game-1.4425735 If you haven't a subscription there's a free audio version of it. Everybody will be to blame for brexit apart from those who brought upon themselves
Greg @16:
OTOH, from what I understand, MT was very much in favour of screwing the poor (and if you're not worth £100M per year, you're poor).
Charlie @21:
Reminds me of the wag who described that the Most Boring Newspaper Headline Ever would be "Worthwhile Canadian Initiative". Does the WaPo even cover Canada in sufficient detail for the reader to make any kind of opinion? I've no idea.
The ultra-wealthy probably do want that, but the corporations want to keep existing. That means abiding EU banking regulations, which is dragging them out of London. What will start as a paper split is going to become real with some speed.
All that finance was in London because of the Empire, and there was an empire because of going first with industrialisation to attain and maintain thalassocracy. Once departed, there will be no putting them back.
I'm in Southern California. If anyone comes to the U.S. look me up. I don't have much money, but I'll do what I can.
I think we'll agree to disagree. The wealth managers within the City of London will do quite well. The private banks will also do well. The public financial institutions will do what you say, of course. However, there's an advantage to international arbitragers to have multiple sets of regulations within which to work, so long as they can move money around to take advantage of each separate set of laws for its own purposes.
Again, this is an international system that's been growing since the 1980s, and the City of London is already a big player. Having it cut adrift from the EU means that EU oversight rules no longer apply. For the hugely wealthy this is a feature, not a bug.
Does the WaPo even cover Canada in sufficient detail for the reader to make any kind of opinion?
The WaPo is among my morning reading, so I can give a clear answer to your question: No. Not even close.
Same is true of any other country, of course.
A twist: Magnitski sanctions from the EU will be a thing soon-ish. Now it just might be that breaking the GFA might forbid access to the EU to a great many of oligarchs -- some of which are French residents (no names, but they own a tabloid). Put that in the frankly unlikely column.
We're also playing out one of the Foundation novelettes: cut trade, make food expensive, but there are no bombs, no threats, fast-forward and the strongman folds. I don't know that the real world works like this, but Tories look like they really want to die as a party.
Side note, we're really lucky that these would-be fascist-adjacent strongmen-cosplayers are really stupid/incompetent. We won't get out of it unscathed, but it may not last more than a decade or so.
Hopefully no deal will not happen - and I wonder how much in the original post would happen if we do get a deal. If I had to guess one way or another right now I think we will get a deal - albiet just about the worst deal possible.
Quick question though: Does anyone know if the UK's electricity supply will be affected? How much of our electricity supply is obtained from the EU, and if so does that mean blackouts - in the coldest months of the year? That could be fatal to the very young and old.
I've heard it said that the thing to watch out for now with regards to deal or no deal is to watch the passage of the IMB (Internal markets bill). If johnson pushes it all through without any changes he's likely chosen no deal. If it is curtailed or removed on the quiet, he's chosen to get a deal.
What I think will happen: Johnson gets a deal at literally the last moment possible. It is a terrible and bad deal but since brexit negociations won't "just stop" at Dec 31 2020 (they will have to continue) at somepoint maybe in early 2021 johnson just walks out of discussions, throws a hissy fit and says "We're not talking any more, the EU won't listen, no deal".
In that way johnson could tick both boxes -- he gets to say he got a deal (but which he dumped) but he gets to please his hard brexiteers who want no deal too.
ljones
As noted by OGH, Nissan is yet again making noises about the impact of Brexit - but that is a large part of the problem - it's all noise.
The view from Tokyo was almost certainly one of disbelief that a supposedly conservative and pro-business government would ever do something as bone-headedly self-destructive, so it had to be a negotiating position rather than an end-game. "Sit tight, don't panic, calmer heads will prevail" was probably what Nissan's executives thought.
Ditto with Ford, etcetera. They began ramping down production and/or stockpiling parts and preparing for layoffs in time for the last deadline (a year ago) and were proven wrong, at great and annoying expense, so why would this time turn out differently?
This is your regular scheduled reminder that the Queen is 94, has reigned as a figurehead (in US terms) for 68 years, and has dedicated her life to not rocking the boat by meddling in politics for that entire time. It's not that it's not her job to meddle in politics so much as that her job is to specifically prevent the monarchy from meddling in politics.
She's not gonna change at this point. Especially by mounting a kamikaze attack on an entrenched conservative government in the middle of a war-grade crisis.
Graydon The Rifle Requirement from 1860 through 1915 was a unique period in history, Pure gibberish. Is there a clear explanation for this twaddle? The Bullingdon club are emphatically NOT "aristos" - they imagine they are but they are not. Real aristos are like the Dukes of Devonshire, investing in productive outlets & "improving" their "estates" however those terms are interpreted.
H and a populace unable to do anything about it. I would not bet too long or heavily on that one!
Clive S FUCK RIGHT OFF You would prefer an appointed, ohh ... President Gove, perhaps? Or Charlie's nightmare, President Blair? Or some other grovelling placeholding nonentity, encouraging fascism?
H YES - which is why she might, just might revolt - she has nothing to lose at that point. Alternatively, & much more likely, she can turn around & say, with perfect truth - "YOU voted for Brexit - here it is. YOU voted for this shitheap BoZo, now you must put up with what you voted for. None of it is my fault, is it?"
"Food on the back patio" FORGET IT For this winter's supplies, you should have been sowing seed & planting things between February & September 2020. It's MUCH TOO LATE, now! If we go crash out & therefore get food riots ( Yes, they will be inevitable ) whatever happens, it will "all be over" by July or August 2021, apart from scraping up the wreckage.
mdive Your first sentence is a dire & accurate warning
Brain Lucey THAT is the real problem - by putting the "Internal Markets Bill" up, BoZo has publicly signalled that he cannot be trusted a nanometer - the only reason the EU wants a deal is that "No Deal" hurts them, too - not nearly as much as us, but they could do without the trouble. Morals of a syphilitic stoat indeed.
mdive A mass exodus of English people to other countries HOW? All the emigration / immigration rules are now broken, remember?
Ijones I hope you are correct - it will be an ongoing, but just-about-manageable disaster ( only ) Oh shit - hadn't read to the end. All too likely possible - it would be entirely in character for BoZo. If that or a straight no-deal happens, I just hope I live long enough to see him dangling from a lamp-post. The penalty for Treason is death, after all.
"Thankfully they're incompetent" is a framing error.
I continue to get the impression that a lot of people think we're looking at a "I'm the greatest" thing like Napoleon, someone claiming imperium and enacting their will on society. That's exceedingly rare; sequential centuries of human history where that doesn't happen, rare.
Facts are a very new thing in a "we make a hypothesis and we test it with observation" way; three centuries is in most respects pushing it. Facts -- the social machinery to produce facts -- have lead to the greatest rate of sustained social change in human history. What we're seeing is a heartfelt rejection of a facts-based world, largely because the increase in real standard of living necessary to get people to tolerate the rate of social change was removed.
(A facts-based world requires you to not go with your gut; it requires distribution of authority; it requires public acknowledgement of error; it requires measuring results. All of this changes the basis of legitimacy for social power, and the people who have power don't like that.)
The offered replacement to a fact-based world is resurgent prescriptive social norms; materially worse, indeed materially much, much worse, but at a relatively slow rate for most, and what you get instead is absolute certainties. Facts don't let you have certainties; facts don't let you have a prescriptive norm, you can't count on what you were taught as a child to still be the case with the full weight of society backing it up.
There's a reason there's so much of a demographic split, and why there's so much mammonite desperation to get this done now in institutionally immutable ways. But there's also a reason the support for the "hate facts, feel good" faction runs half the population.
There's no need for imperium; there's no need for a competent supreme sole autocrat. There's just this refusal to give up; enough of that, and the cost of good government becomes infinite. If there can be no good government, they can have their prescriptive norm and go back to killing anybody weird and feel safe.
It takes a rise-of-Islam scale social movement to overcome something like that.
Graydon Except a rise-of-Islam is PRECISELY AGAINST facts & reason & logic ... oops.
Oh, by the way, it might not be enough to feed you all the time, but there are ways of raising small quantities of food - I laughed out loud at the 3rd-storey snails - the bastards are certainly found in my upstairs front window boxes - from whence they get brief flying lessons.
I should point out that I know perfectly well that the Windsors are the local tycoons who have taken on the figurehead role of leading the country in return for being allowed to keep their property.
My point was more in line of "royal funeral(s) amidst the food riots?" Possible. Hopefully not likely. In Queen Elizabeth's case, what's as concerning as England going off the bridge and the secession of Scotland is that she's down to one corgi. The loss of her last dog may be as great a heartbreak as everything else.
The other thing is that I'm dubious that England will have sufficient food if bojob stays in office. Someone's got to provide real leadership to inspire people to plant their own radishes and potatoes. If the Moppet won't step up, the next leader in line would be....King Charles Horta? Yeah.*
So Greg, yes, you may be called on to help advise Charlie how to sprout barley in his apartment so that he can brew beer, or something horticulturalish.
*I can just see the fantasy now: King Charles IVy turns England back into a functioning monarchy as Parliament does to itself what Guy Fawkes failed to do to it. Talk about new management.
From (about) 1860 to (drastically) 1915, the ability to project military power rested on rifle regiments. Horse, guns, and foot, sure, but very definitely was the foot ascendant. To get the rifle regiments necessary to being a Power or a Great Power, you needed to be able to mobilise a very large fraction of your adult male population, because you were in a numbers contest; you then needed to give them a strong stake in the political system so this was relatively safe in political terms. (This was NOT a matter of one-sided largess; this is the period in which increases to the franchise happen for the very definite reason that the elite's options are limited, and a lot of collective action by non-elites exploited that.)
It got mythologised very quickly; "get you the sons your fathers got, and God will save the Queen" is talking about something that was -- in 1887 when the poem was published -- at very most two generations old.
This comes to an end in 1915, with the dominance of artillery; anything you can see, the guns can grind up. You see the relative loss of importance of small arms in infantry kit; what was in 1914 a company of men each equipped with a haversack and a rifle becomes an array of grenades, rifle grenades, rifle calibre automatic weapons, and mortars by 1918, with the remaining actual riflemen in a supporting role.
The necessity of industrial mobilisation lingered through maybe 1970; there is nothing even vaguely like either mass mobilisation or industrial mobilisation required today for the exercise of military or other material power, and so no countervailing pressure against narrowing the franchise. All of the "right" factions -- the mammonites, the xenophobes, or the aristos -- have constructions of virtue that would sharply limit who can vote.
("aristo" is not "this person is a titled landowner", but "this person thinks, and has a social position sufficient to prevent them from being quickly disabused of the notion when they act like it, that they are one of the lords of creation." There are a great many such in places where there's no titled anybody, and I would hazard to suppose a great many in Mother England, too. These are the people who set out to become a CEO so everybody has to do what they say.)
Rise-of-Islam wasn't against facts and reason; if anything, it improved the circumstances for facts and reason. (That passel of Islamic mathematicians is why "al" shows up in algebra and algorithm, after all.)
What it did was replace the incumbent basis of society with a different basis, rapidly, and with (for the scale of the change) surprisingly little violence.
A couple of things you missed: you didn't mention that selling fishing rights off to the highest (foreign) bidder was Thatcher's doing. Nor the the Covert Human Intelligence Sources (Criminal Conduct) Bill. Damn the murder, rape and torture - what is far more likely is things like the following:
1) Worming their way into law-abiding organisations that annoy the government and commiting offences that gives the government an excuse to suppress that organisation. Think CND, Greenpeace, Amnesty, Liberty etc. But my guess is that the first one to be targetted will be Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions, followed by anything that opposes monetarism and any troublesome unions.
Didn't someone write a story called "Minutes of the Labour Party Conference 2016" about something similar?
2) Committing perjury to get a troublemaker convicted when there isn't enough hard evidence. It's not as if that's a new technique, after all. My guess is that our lickspittle judges will refuse to hear appeals on that basis unless the defendant can prove the perjury beyond reasonable doubt, as they do at present when asked for disclosure against the government.
Greg Tingey @ 45: all the emigration / immigration rules are now broken, remember?
Note that the non-EU countries the English may be thinking of going to have not broken their own rules about regular immigrants and refugees.
To give but one example Canada has already planned the number of immigrants and refugees it will take for 2020, 2021 and 2022.
The total number of immigrants it will accept, from all countries, for 2021 is 351,000. Out of this, the total number of refugees it will accept, from all countries, is 52,950.
If there is a complete economic collapse and severe food shortages in England the number 52,950 will seem rather small won't it?
Of course you have to remember that there will be probably collapses in other ill-ruled countries around the globe and that they will also be contributing to that 52,950 number.
https://www.immigration.ca/canadas-new-immigration-levels-plans-could-see-390000-permanent-residents-per-year-by-2022
The Foreign Office staff seems very confident that the UK will join the Common Market by 2024 and the EU by 2035. Personally I think that’s highly optimistic on both scores.
One part I wonder about, is travel. I.e. If people start seeing how much better off the Europeans are, will that change the equation?
If there is No Deal I think that increases the chance of a coup against Boris as the Tories start infighting over the blame and opportunities available. He’ll be gone by the end of 21 at the latest.
Niala @ 5: You've missed the love of the English for the occasion to show a stiff upper lip. As a result, I do not think there will be a revolution.
The revolution already came and went. The aristos overthrew the people. Charlie's talking about the aftermath; what the revolution is going to mean for the common man.
Rise-of-Islam wasn't against facts and reason
I think Greg is thinking of today's islamists, who are very much not into facts and reason so much as cosplaying the middle ages (when the Islamic world reached its peak, before reaching the gates of Vienna). They're still in denial of the gigantic loss-of-empire that the collapse of the Ottoman empire and the resulting carve-up of the Middle East led to, so role-playing a historic period when things were better is ... well, it's no more or less batshit than 1950s nostalgia and white supremacism in the USA today, or Brexit for that matter.
The lessons those of us in the Anglophone world should learn from this ought to be deafeningly obvious, but I'm seeing nothing in the press.
Obligatory SF story reference: "We see things differently" by Bruce Sterling (nailed this cognitive dissonance over relative loss of imperial hegemony, oh, decades ago).
Which reminds me: I seem to recall James Nicoll chewing over the SF trope of a Mars (or other space) colony in the context of Angry White People who don't want to rub elbows with mud-eating terrestrials; what are the implications of sudden availability of cheap reusable orbital spacecraft (e.g. Musk's Superheavy/Starship) for white supremacists?
Regarding City of London and all that:
UK has been the 100% reliable brake every time EU has tried to do something about tax-evasion, off-shoring etc. etc.
City of London as a much more convenient Tax-Haven, just a train-ride from BXL is not going to happen, in particular not in case of no-deal.
And if the smoking remains of UK regrets and wants to rejoin the EU, their application will not even be considered, until the have joined the 20th century and gone metric, and entry will be contingent on adopting the Euro.
Btw: What's your take on that Charlie ? Would Scotland be willing to adopt Euro to get into EU ?
The UK has already gone metric -- ages ago: there are a couple of grandfathered-in non-metric measurements such as beer sold by the pint, but the "pint" is defined as 568ml in law; I learned the old units as legacy stuff when I was at school in the 1970s, anyone much under 60 works natively in metric.
Adopting the Euro is another matter.
I expect if Scotland UKexits, then there will be a "Scottish pound" that is geared against either Sterling or the Euro or a basket of currencies, with Eurozone convergence as official policy (much as the Polish Zloty has officially been converging with the Euro for, oh, about 20 years now). Scotland is much more likely to adopt the Euro to get into the EU than England is, short of a full-scale Sterling collapse ... but England won't be applying to rejoin the EU this decade, so who the hell knows?
When the UK falls out of the EU, it stops being in the Internal Energy Market.
Undersea interconnectors are an important element of grid stabilisation, the closure of coal plants in the UK has increased energy flows from France to the UK.
So, a higher risk of blackouts until new agreements are signed.
(incidentally, Scotland leaving the UK will leave the power grid with a thorny problem, since it does not have a separate grid, National Grid covers the entire island)
Chrisj @10. We don’t have the highest death rate from Covid-19 in Europe. This is just the left wing’s version of the British exceptionalism that they so decry from the right wing. Just as we’re not uniquely good, we’re also not uniquely bad. We’re badly governed, but so are other countries. Belgium, San Marino, Andorra, North Macedonia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Italy and Spain have higher death rates than we do. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
JBS @ 54: The revolution already came and went. The aristos overthrew the people.
That wasn't a revolution, that was a reaction. Those people are not revolutionaries, they are reactionaries.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactionary
The Internal Market Bill passed the third reading in the Lords with the amendments to make it comply with the Withdrawal Agreement and international law. The government can either accept it with the amendments, or put it through the Commons again and then send it back to the Lords again. They can’t just pass the unlamented version that they want.
Which reminds me: I seem to recall James Nicoll chewing over the SF trope of a Mars (or other space) colony in the context of Angry White People who don't want to rub elbows with mud-eating terrestrials; what are the implications of sudden availability of cheap reusable orbital spacecraft (e.g. Musk's Superheavy/Starship) for white supremacists?
I'm seeing a combination of the exclusionary single-philosophy colonies from Peter F Hamilton's Night's Dawn, crossed with the politics of A Libertarian Walks Into A Bear/.
As someone living across the pond I'm concerned about what a British banking collapse (assuming at least one major bank screws up its Brexit escape plan and causes a gaping securities wound) might do to the rest of the world markets, already stressed with COVID and not quite out of the woods of whatever slash-and-burn Trump wraps up with in mid-January.
Compared to the derivatives crisis, Brexit has been slow-moving AND highly visible, and if nothing else the Torys and the GOP have been willing to protect their wealthy friends. But we've seen that it really only takes one slip to foul things up.
No one is going to let a major bank go under again. That lesson from 2008 has been learned. Any bank that has a liquidity crisis will be nationalised, and keep trading and honouring its financial obligations.
Which reminds me: I seem to recall James Nicoll chewing over the SF trope of a Mars (or other space) colony in the context of Angry White People who don't want to rub elbows with mud-eating terrestrials; what are the implications of sudden availability of cheap reusable orbital spacecraft (e.g. Musk's Superheavy/Starship) for white supremacists?
I think we're back to Niven's take that libertarians make the best astronauts. And, based on the astronauts' biographies I've read, I think the opposite is rather true. The opposite, in this case, are over-achieving, disciplined, team players. So sending up a ship of white supremacists might be a costly mistake for everyone involved.
The view from Tokyo was almost certainly one of disbelief that a supposedly conservative and pro-business government would ever do something as bone-headedly self-destructive, so it had to be a negotiating position rather than an end-game. "Sit tight, don't panic, calmer heads will prevail" was probably what Nissan's executives thought.
I don't doubt you, but that was sort of my point. Anyone paying attention to the current reality, as opposed to trying to fit the past reality onto the mess, could see it was anything but a negotiating position.
But they didn't do their jobs - the jobs that (perhaps not in Japan, but certainly in Detroit and other head office locations) they are paid obscene amounts of money to do because supposedly they are uniquely qualified and thus deserving of such pay.
I mean, Boris really was quite clear about the government's view regarding business when he was merely the Foreign Secretary and he wasn't fired for saying it.
Ditto with Ford, etcetera. They began ramping down production and/or stockpiling parts and preparing for layoffs in time for the last deadline (a year ago) and were proven wrong, at great and annoying expense, so why would this time turn out differently?
I mean, if they expected Boris to come out with some sort of deal to maintain the status quo they should all be demoted to janitor - it isn't as though Boris is an unknown at this point.
Brexit was going to hurt these companies, the only question was how much.
It would have been much better off approaching various European governments about getting tax breaks and/or new free factories built - much like the London banks were wooed by the various European capitals.
I'm seeing a combination of the exclusionary single-philosophy colonies from Peter F Hamilton's Night's Dawn, crossed with the politics of A Libertarian Walks Into A Bear/.
Didn't things like this happen back in ye olde days of the colonization of the New World? Like...Fordlandia?
Anyway, thanks for the link to A Liberterian Walks Into A Bear. Added it to my pile.
hmmm @ 41: A twist: Magnitski sanctions from the EU will be a thing soon-ish. Now it just might be that breaking the GFA might forbid access to the EU to a great many of oligarchs -- some of which are French residents (no names, but they own a tabloid). Put that in the frankly unlikely column.
We're also playing out one of the Foundation novelettes: cut trade, make food expensive, but there are no bombs, no threats, fast-forward and the strongman folds. I don't know that the real world works like this, but Tories look like they really want to die as a party.
Side note, we're really lucky that these would-be fascist-adjacent strongmen-cosplayers are really stupid/incompetent. We won't get out of it unscathed, but it may not last more than a decade or so.
I'm pretty sure I understand "Magnitski" sanctions, but what is "GAF"?
A lot of people can die in a decade of misrule.
A mass exodus of English people to other countries HOW? All the emigration / immigration rules are now broken, remember?
I mean, how did all the people from Syria and other parts of the middle east do it? They just did and forced the governments at the receiving end find a way to deal with it.
Or the number of young Irish who dispersed around the world post 2008/2009.
It's easy to sit back and say country X has rules against it, or that they will only accept Y refuges a year, but if thousands of people simply show up and sit down that changes the equation.
With the added benefit (for many, not all, of the current residents of England) that the combination of speaking not having the wrong religion and having white skin will make them much more politically acceptable in many places (with speaking English being a bonus for a subset of countries).
(and any sensible country and their businesses should already be looking at enticing the young & highly educated from England if things go bad).
Charlie Stross @ 44: This is your regular scheduled reminder that the Queen is 94, has reigned as a figurehead (in US terms) for 68 years, and has dedicated her life to not rocking the boat by meddling in politics for that entire time. It's not that it's not her job to meddle in politics so much as that her job is to specifically prevent the monarchy from meddling in politics.
She's not gonna change at this point. Especially by mounting a kamikaze attack on an entrenched conservative government in the middle of a war-grade crisis.
What would she do if shit got so bad it actually threatened the existence of the Monarchy?
Graydon A huge amount of "islamic" mathematics was, in fact "Indian" - see also Charlie - yes I'm thinking of islam after about 1300CE ( ~680 AH ) after the Mongol invasions & the retreat into mysticism & rejection of reason, that still rules.
Paul Guinnessy James II & VI lasted 3 years, so 2024 is spot on, actually. Travel - no. It was blindingly obvious to me, in 1965, the first time I went to Germany, that their standard of living was higher than ours, never mind since then. Did it make any difference until after the second complete collapse of our exercise of "soveriegnty" in 1976 ( the IMF crisis ) - no, of course not. Slight correction - with any luck, he'll be dangling before the end of 2021.
PHK DO keep up! We went metric, apart from Pints, & Miles on roads, many years ago. ( And as Charlie says, those are "derived Units" officially measured in International Standard Units ) ... I started using what were then called "mks" units back in 1960-61
Niala Correct
Mike Scott Thanks for the correction In other words, the revised "IMB" does not break the EU's co-regulations
JBS "GFA" - Good Friday Agreement - an International Treaty, of some importance.
INdeed, there's also the matter as shown in the award winning Norwegian fil: "The King's Decision" - which is worth a watch.
Your takeaway should be that the UK has just been through 13 very turbulent months
A piffle. We're at 46 months.
Meantime in the news (pinched from the guardian);
"Brexit: Breakthrough on fishing rights as talks hang in balance".
But yet...
"In an unwelcome development for Boris Johnson, France and Germany have instructed the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier that they are united on the need for the UK to face consequences over future divergence from the EU rulebook as policy changes."
and (from the independent);
"PM to push ahead with controversial legislation" (the IMB)
or
"Breakthrough on fishing rights?
Rumours are still swirling that an agreement has been reached on fishing rights, with some reports claiming that the EU has been given access for up to seven years."
So who knows what is going on? Maybe there really might be a deal - or not, or this is all just "diplomatic noise".....
ljones
mdlve@69:
Greg: A mass exodus of English people to other countries HOW? All the emigration / immigration rules are now broken, remember?
mdlve: I mean, how did all the people from Syria and other parts of the middle east do it? They just did and forced the governments at the receiving end find a way to deal with it.
No! Refugees are not treated well in such a case.
Don't try that stunt with Australia. You'll end up on Manus Island or other detention centres:
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-thursday-edition-1.5182961/detained-writer-exposes-australia-s-notorious-manus-island-camp-from-the-inside-1.5182979
Niala @ 60:
That wasn't a revolution, that was a reaction. Those people are not revolutionaries, they are reactionaries.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactionary
Just because they're reactionaries doesn't mean they can't have a reactionary revolution.
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/revolution
It's not just leftists who have revolutions, and not all revolutions are accomplished by violence
Don't try that stunt with Australia. You'll end up on Manus Island or other detention centres
English-speaking white refugees with Anglo-Saxon names might well be treated a lot better.
I can't speak for Australia, but I expect Canada (or at least large chunks of the electorate) to treat British refugees better than non-Europeans.
"From (about) 1860 to (drastically) 1915, the ability to project military power rested on rifle regiments."
Depends who you ask; the power grouping most conveniently referred to as "Germany" were well aware of what you can do with artillery pretty well all along. They were highly impressed by the quality of the French rifles and riflemen opposing them in 1870, considering them better than their own, but the weapon system that won that war was German artillery (and what lost it was epic dickheadedness on the part of the French commanders), and after the war the French as well as the Germans knew what artillery was for. Only the Germans still knew better.
"anything you can see, the guns can grind up."
That was the mistake the French made in applying the lesson. They invented the "quick fire mechanism" (hydraulic recoil buffer) and concentrated on arming themselves with quick-firing light artillery that was indeed highly effective at grinding up any troops the gunners could see... but found themselves fighting a war that gave them few opportunities to do so, and needing a lot more in the way of high-angle trajectory heavier artillery to grind up trenches you couldn't see. Like the Germans were using.
So, anyway, now we have a ramshackle polity with delusions of grandeur, acting in a breathtakingly stupid manner in a way which might possibly have been prevented if an important player had put their foot down firmly at the start instead of piddling about trying not to commit, with a record-breakingly old and long-reigning monarch whose principal concern has always been working hard at not rocking the boat, and a next-in-line who is a chap called Charles who has his heart in more or less the right place but is a bit of a div. Possibly the "revolution" in the thread title is that of the hand that goes round once a century.
Just because they're reactionaries doesn't mean they can't have a reactionary revolution.
https://nyupress.org/9781479893409/the-counter-revolution-of-1776/
The so-called Revolutionary War, Horne writes, was in part a counter-revolution, a conservative movement that the founding fathers fought in order to preserve their right to enslave others.
Artillery wasn't useless prior to 1915; it wasn't the decisive arm. From thereabouts of 1860 until 1915 that was rifles. From 1915 forward it's artillery.
None of which saves you from inept commanders, unable to recover from surprise; to paraphrase somebody about Crecy, a battle like Crecy cannot be produced by a military genius like Edward III; for a battle like Crecy, you need an idiot like the Duc d'Alençon.
But! this is the period of the major colonial expansions into interiors and highlands; the period where differential military power is greatest. Also the period where people in the European powers start figuring out that they don't really understand what they're doing with armies anymore.
Absolutely everyone expected -- from all previous experience! -- that the Great War would be a short, high mobility war. In many respects it had to be a short war; it was impossible to fiscally sustain a long one (correct! only farewell, gold standard), and Imperial Germany did not have internal supplies of nitrates, and would have to choose between sustaining hostilities for as much as a year and a bad harvest. Only we get the Haber process and Imperial Germany can make enough gunpowder fast enough while starving much more slowly than expected. Technological surprise becomes a thing.
I continue to use Mr. Hohenzollern as evidence that you can in fact do anything at all and keep the loot; the strength and breadth and sweeping nature of such example is presumptively animating the principle figures driving Brexit.
What would she do if shit got so bad it actually threatened the existence of the Monarchy?
It won't, precisely because she's been fanatically single-minded about staying out of day-to-day politics. It's one of the few British institutions that nobody can ascribe any blame to for the current mess.
How likely is a newly independent Scotland to keep the monarchy?
I would be very slow to suppose that any exceptions will be made for folks from the UK, whatever the general run of voters thinks. The federal immigration bureaucracy isn't pro-UK; there were, for many years, structural exceptions for immigrants from the British Isles, but those have all been gone this century and the anecdata I have suggests that getting in on the immigration lottery is tougher from England than anywhere else; a de-facto stricter standard of scrutiny.
(The Quebec immigration mechanisms probably couldn't keep a straight face if you asked them about preferential treatment for UK refugees.)
Plus there's no way anyone political wants to stand up and advocate for major expansions of immigration during the ongoing pandemic recession, which we've got for at least the next six months, possibly year. (So much depends on what the cousins get up to.) There's already been muttering about reducing those targets.
Jamesface writes: And in fact Joe Biden has signalled very strongly that he won't put up with comedy capers involving the GFA and infractions of international law.
And Canada, politely as always, says "we're going to want at least a pound of flesh if you want to trade with us"
And Canada, politely as always, says "we're going to want at least a pound of flesh if you want to trade with us"
Except Canada already has essentially done a trade agreement with the UK, an easy task given that it is just the Canada/EU agreement redone as Canada/UK.
There's talk of extending it further, but I expect that will likely remain just talk given almost everything is already in the existing agreement.
Charlie Stross @ 80
Well, yes, but on the other hand she does unoffically indicate when she is Not Pleased. She kept Maggy Thatcher standing up a long time (that is not giving her the permission to sit down during an audience) when she was once Displeased with her policies.
When she came over to Canada to "celebrate" our patriation of the constitution in 1982 she gave Pierre Trudeau a sour face or a pained face every time he smiled at her, because she was Not Pleased that it was done without unanimous consent.
Niala:
No! Refugees are not treated well in such a case.
Don't try that stunt with Australia. You'll end up on Manus Island or other detention centres:
Robert Prior:
English-speaking white refugees with Anglo-Saxon names might well be treated a lot better.
Exactly. A lot of the refugee issue is racism, a problem that many fleeing England would not have.
Graydon:
I would be very slow to suppose that any exceptions will be made for folks from the UK, whatever the general run of voters thinks.
Plus there's no way anyone political wants to stand up and advocate for major expansions of immigration during the ongoing pandemic recession, which we've got for at least the next six months, possibly year.
All it takes is the right wing monarchists to wrap themselves up in Queen & Country, to say why could we accept (choose appropriate non-white skin colour/non-christian religion) crossing our border over the last 4+ years and we can't accept refugees from our ancestral home and watch things change regardless of how inaccurate or stupid it may be.
Add in the right wing tendencies of most in England and the Canadian Conservatives would welcome they with open arms - just as a fringe of them are pursuing a CANZUK open borders idea.
JBS at 68:
GFA is the Good Friday Agreement, responsible for the current abatement of the Troubles in Northern Ireland.
I just hope I live long enough to see him dangling from a lamp-post. The penalty for Treason is death, after all.
And then you can give him a little wave like Vir Cotto on Babylon 5.
mdlve @ 86
England is not the ancestral home of Canada. The Inuit and the First Nations were here first.
The United Kingdom is a trusted NATO partner and we can only help it to survive if it wants to.
By all accounts, the Queen got along much better with Jean Chrétien than Pierre Trudeau. She got quite a kick out of him saying shit! (merde!) when a pen broke at the signing ceremony for the Canadian Constitution in 1982.
England is not the ancestral home of Canada. The Inuit and the First Nations were here first.
Yes, the Inuit and First Nations people were here on the physical land first, and were treaty atrociously since then.
But it doesn't change the fact that Canada's (as in the government and civic structure) ancestral home is the UK - our government system, our legal system, our head of state, etc. are all based off of the UK(*)
Just as my "ancestral home" as such would be Denmark, given my grandfather came from Denmark.
Well, Charlie - wish I could disagree, but I can't.
Good luck - stay safe & sane.
@Graydon, Rifles/Artillery
You are missing machine guns in the picture.
mdlve @ 91
Actually, members of the First Nations saved the lives of the first settlers, in the 17th century, by showing them the cure for scurvy.
Later, in the 1950s, we saved the lives of the Inuit when they were going through repeated famines because of some poor fishing and hunting years.
Sure, we got common law from the UK and Le Code Civil from France.
But we worked out federalism all by ourselves, over the centuries, since the UK was a unitary country and not a federation.
We're now doing some form of devolution (and the creation of another province, Nunavut) for the Yukon Territory and Northwest Territories who used to be ruled directly from Ottawa.
But this devolution is very recent and has absolutely nothing to do with devolution in the UK.
Thank you, Charlie, for such a detailed and cogent essay on BREXIT -- Who wants it, Why they want it, and how everybody else will pay for it and suffer very much.
Also thank you, commentators to Charlie's essay, for so many interesting and information additions -- particularly Greydon's long comment.
I have recommended this with a link to the post in some other places, including to my Partner and some of our friends in email.
So sending up a ship of white supremacists might be a costly mistake for everyone involved.
I don't know, it could work as a Golgafrinchan solution, assuming the infrastructure is not too costly and/or surplus. And no-one feels obliged to launch a rescue mission: I guess that's where it breaks down a bit. Technically (per the Outer Space Treaty) they are the responsibility of the nation that owns the spaceship, or the nation where the company that owns it lives... not allowing for the question of a company's nationality to be particularly complex. Maybe it would be possible to pitch it so that they would register a company somewhere that obviously doesn't have any space capability, Sierra Leone maybe, and transfer ownership there. Isn't that sort of traditional for Libertarian ventures anyway, to get away from big government?
Sure, we got common law from the UK and Le Code Civil from France.
But we worked out federalism all by ourselves, over the centuries, since the UK was a unitary country and not a federation.
I suggest you look into the British North America Act (1867) and its subsequent amendments, the UK laws that created Canada as we know it and was the ultimate authority for Canada until 1982 when we finally took control away from the UK Parliament in London.
Until that time major changes in Canada required approval by the UK Parliament.
(for example, it took an act of the UK Parliament in 1951 to create the legal foundation for what would become the Canada Pension Plan).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_North_America_Acts
Wasn't it Napoleon who said that God generally fights on the side of the heavier artillery? In response to an immediately-dismissed general who said that it didn't matter that he couldn't have the artillery in place in time, God was on France's side?
Nope! Machine guns are memorable and lethal but not decisive.
Machine guns were a tactical problem in the Great War in areas with an established continuous front. They weren't and aren't of strategic importance. (If all the machine guns magically vanished and the artillery didn't, no change to the position of the front; if all the artillery magically vanished and the machine guns didn't, the Western Front goes mobile again.) The massive production of stopgap rifle-calibre automatic weapons like the Lewis, the Chauchat, and the MG 08/15 to support assault in those conditions stopped once the tactical problems got worked out, mostly by the development of armoured vehicles. This was happening in 1918, it didn't have to wait on full mechanisation and the continuous front going into continuous motion.
Infantry picks up the notion of the "light" machine gun and then the GPMG, yet another heavy thing to carry in the adjustable weapon mix. Attacking into positions with emplaced machine guns isn't a delight, but everybody knows how to do it.
Artillery remains a "don't be where they're shooting" problem for infantry; broad-sense artillery (to include air power) has us into notions like conflicted volume; the impossibility of winning open-field battles with someone who can achieve artillery superiority has driven conflict into strange asymmetric structures since 1960 or so.
When I was a wee lad, before 1982, someone wanted to expropriate some property adjacent to the downtown of the small town my family lived in at the time. There was a development scheme to build a shopping mall, as were just becoming fashionable.
Problem; a big chunk of the proposed parcel for the mall was owned by someone who inherited it, by direct male primogeniture, from the ancestor who had been granted the property by George the Third in recognition of service in the Revolutionary War. Retained the original grant, in the legal Latin of the day. The grant was original and unconditional; it had never been subdivided, merged, or sold. The controlling document is the one that starts off "GEORGIUS TERTIUS" and there is no getting around it.
To expropriate the property, it would be necessary to petition the local MP to petition Parliament (the Canadian Federal Parliament) to pass a bill that did nothing but petition the House of Lords to petition the Crown to despoil the descendant of the King's good servant.
The local MP told the would-be developers to cease entertaining such fantasies, possibly with less tact.
The shopping mall didn't get built. (In hindsight, everyone was generally pleased about that.)
If you ever wondered why Pierre (and a number of other people) had such a bee in their bonnets about Patriation of the Constitution, this kind of reason is far from all of the kinds of reason, but it mattered.
I don't know, it could work as a Golgafrinchan solution, assuming the infrastructure is not too costly and/or surplus. And no-one feels obliged to launch a rescue mission: I guess that's where it breaks down a bit. Technically (per the Outer Space Treaty) they are the responsibility of the nation that owns the spaceship, or the nation where the company that owns it lives... not allowing for the question of a company's nationality to be particularly complex. Maybe it would be possible to pitch it so that they would register a company somewhere that obviously doesn't have any space capability, Sierra Leone maybe, and transfer ownership there. Isn't that sort of traditional for Libertarian ventures anyway, to get away from big government?
Spaceship? Why bother? They're breaking up cruise ships at Aliaga, Turkey, due to La Rona (https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/cruise-ship-demolition-photos-aliaga-turkey/index.html). Instead of going blast off, fast-thinking libertarians (they exist, right?) should buy up a to-be-scrapped cruise ship and set it up as a SeaSteading. I'm sure that packing a few hundred freedom-minded libertarians into a surplused cruise ship will go ever so much better than sending them into space. And they can cruise the world where no one will bother them. Around the Kerguelen Islands, perhaps. Or Tristan de Cunha. Perhaps they can raid the Falklands and disappear into the Roaring Forties. Or anchor off Western Sahara.
English-speaking white refugees with Anglo-Saxon names might well be treated a lot better.
Quite so (and over here in Australia, definitely). It's only a year or so since the Home Affairs minister was seriously proposing extending supernumerary humanitarian visas to white South African farmers who were making a case for being oppressed, oppressed I tell you by the gang violence that was affecting them at a substantially lower rate than the rest of the population. There's a safe assumption that while the negative reaction meant this didn't happen as a high profile, promoted activity, that nonetheless certain numbers will have changed in certain ways under the radar. I expect Brexit refugees to get a much warmer reception, TBH.
Of course the pointy bit of Australia's anti-refugee policies is really only aimed at maritime arrivals. A different approach, the most popular being simply flying in and overstaying your tourist visa, is usually treated VERY differently.
There's an interesting element to the timing of the changes in the China-Australia bilateral relationship. Right now there is a whole class of Australian winemakers who were selling their entire output in China, which has now introduced something like 200% tariffs. Now this sort of thing can balance out: the Chinese consumers affected by this will buy wine from elsewhere, and that will leave gaps in the market in some parts of the industry that the affected growers can target (whether it's wine, grapes, viticultural equipment, etc). But it's fair to say that all Australian exporters who are dependent on China are starting to look elsewhere as a general precaution.
So you know all those coal-fired power stations that have been closing down or converting to gas? Gladstone to North Yorkshire via Singapore and Suez doesn't even transit the South China Sea, and that's totally omitting the Atlantic route. Just saying...
Point of information. My understanding[1] is that the ordure could hit the air movement device as early as tomorrow (well today now for Charlie and the other cispondians on this blog) because while the bonfire of international law clauses were indeed nixed by the Lords from the Internal Markets Bill, the government intends to reintroduce them on Monday as part of the Finance Bill. This is the enactment of the UK’s annual budget which as a money bill cannot be delayed or blocked by the House of Lords. The EU negotiators have said that if those clauses hit the statute book then they’re walking away. Boris et al have said that if a deal is struck then the clauses won’t be needed. Clearly this is a game of brinkmanship, and the question is who will blink first. It looks likely that Boris thinks it’s going to be the EU, but I’m not so sure.
[1] From the perspective of a Englishman-turned-American by naturalization who still harbours some hopes of returning to my native country to retire in a decade or two
Not subject to expectations of competence, presumption of significance, lavished with money for doubtful work, narrowly defined peers, disdain for opinions outside that self-defined set of peers, habit of regarding laws as opinions, all of the complex is there. That's tight, thanks. Is there a (short) readable treatment of that (applicable to multiple cultures), that you recommend?
I am reminded of "Aristoi", Walter Jon Williams, 1993. Being Aristoi, wjw, 2012 (bold mine) There would be a fairly rigid social order, with the Aristoi (“the Best”) on top, in the middle the Therápontes (“Servants”— which is also what “Samurai” means, by the way), and the Demos— the People— at the bottom of the pyramid. ... So in Aristoi, social barriers are not absolute— it’s a aristocratic meritocracy, in which absolute rulers are chosen through a series of examinations, like mandarins in Confucian China. Through application, genius, talent, and drive, a member of the Demos can become an Aristos.
mdlve @ 97
The Parliament in Westminster never invented federalism. It was worked out gradually here in Canada, with the London Parliament being mostly a rubber stamp for decisions made in Canada.
A list of British North America Acts misses out the extremely important Statute of Westminster of 1931, which gave full legislative powers to Canada.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statute_of_Westminster_1931
This Statute also made the Windsor dynasty Canadian. From then on the status of our sovereign was distinct from his or her position in any of her other realms, including the UK.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monarchy_of_Canada
This means that she could flee to Canada if the UK were on fire. But I don't think she'd do that.
Anyway, a majority of Canadians still think she's a good Queen.
On the other hand a majority of Canadians don't want to keep the monarchy after her death. So, Speaker-To-The-Plants would have to look for another Dominion if the UK caught fire during his reign.
From a non-European part of Ford, it appears that Ford of Europe (FOE) bet on a there being a deal with a side order of 'if the UK wants to kill their auto industry, all the better for Europe.' But suspect work from the UK will not go to Germany or Spain, but to Romania.
In the interim, FOE shut down Bridgend (closed Sep 2020); that leaves on Dagenham (engines) as a manufacturing site. Suspect that the Japanese will be more impacted as they seem to have bet on the UK as their base for Europe.
Just this week the component suppliers started to serve notice of anticipated disruptions from a 'no-deal' exit. I suspect we will see plenty of 'down tools' and waiting for some parts something can be built.
I would be very slow to suppose that any exceptions will be made for folks from the UK, whatever the general run of voters thinks.
OTOH, if a bunch of Brits just happened to make it to Canada I suspect we'd be slower to send them back home than a bunch of, say, Jamaicans.
On the other hand a majority of Canadians don't want to keep the monarchy after her death.
I suspect if we had the option of Harry rather than Charles the vote might go the other way. Or would have before he scarpered off for the States.
So you say you want a revolution
No, I'm already revolted enough.
Waded through https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada.html recently?
(TL;DR there are like fifty ways to immigrate to Canada. They all have their own specific rules and operate for specific purposes. This has removed discretion from the system.)
Canada doesn't deport very many asylum seekers as it stands; this is a major Conservative bugaboo. (About 2% in 2019 because the system is overloaded. Deportations have just restarted, COVID or no COVID.) With food riots in the UK, TSR -- Temporary Suspension of Removals -- would almost certainly kick in. (That happens when the destination nation is in such chaos that its entire civilian population is at risk.)
On the other hand, travel would almost certainly stop, too, and it's a long walk.
There's a set of special provisions for folks from Hong Kong in place right now, but those have been in the works since before China regained territorial control. I can't see special provisions for the UK in less than a year; generating a case for urgency would be hard to do in time to be useful, and even if you did, the response would be "send food" rather than "bring people here".
No short version, sorry; that's coming out of reading stuff about the transition away from feudal systems in Western Europe when I had access to a university library decades ago, so it could be out of date with respect to current scholarship, too.
Meritocracy as a notion falls apart in the presence of selection; people greatly prefer that their kid does well over the system doing well, by and large. Which will destroy any system dependent on fair assessments.
Instead of going blast off, fast-thinking libertarians (they exist, right?) should buy up a to-be-scrapped cruise ship and set it up as a SeaSteading. I'm sure that packing a few hundred freedom-minded libertarians into a surplused cruise ship will go ever so much better than sending them into space.
Such a project would require money, which means obvious potential for graft, so of course Libertarians are doing it; they're already selling spaces on an old liner they've renamed the MS Satoshi to the usual gang of enthusiasts and second-order scammers, to put out for international waters Real Soon Now.
Yeah, I'd read about the Satoshi awhile ago. I just think, since we're going into Austral Summer, that Now Is The Time for Brave Libertarians to Commandeer Their Freedom Boat and head South to the freedom of the Great Ocean.
By the time they get there it will be winter in the Roaring 40s, but hey, it's cheaper, safer, and warmer than going to Mars, no? And they already go cruising to Antarctica, so obviously any decent cruise ship can handle it, no problemo. Right?
Such a project would require money, which means obvious potential for graft, so of course Libertarians are doing it; they're already selling spaces on an old liner they've renamed the MS Satoshi to the usual gang of enthusiasts and second-order scammers, to put out for international waters Real Soon Now.
If this goes the way things normally go in that crowd, they'll sell the actual liner for scrap while continuing to sell berths for their voyage.
With the current price of iron ore being what it is, selling ships for scrap is a boom industry at present.
Some other thoughts: -
Over the course of '21, Sterling will probably fall against the € and USD by a fraction with a small denominator, like 4 or 3.
This will worsen inflation as the price of items in the "standard basket of goods", like mobile phones and cut flowers, rises by half or more.
The Bank of England will accordingly feel the need to increase its bank (interest) rate to curb the resulting inflation, in the midst of an already severe downturn.
we can't accept refugees from our ancestral home and watch things change regardless of how inaccurate or stupid it may be.
All it would take is a bunch of black or brown faces with British passports being shown in the media and that would come to an abrupt halt, I reckon. Our Pauline is not going to be happy unless we can flatly refuse to accept any Islams{sic} and probably any of those dope-smoking Jamacians with the funny accents wither.
Also, remember that the current PM looks to the US not the UK for guidance, especially moral guidance. The people he'd want are the rich, preferably evangelical hypochristian types. Not the heaving masses of povo scum whose only claim to having value is that they're white. It would be pretty easy to rile people up about whinging poms and drunk tourist overstayers if they wanted to.
On that note, Australia does desperately need tp bulk up our underclass of legally dubious not-technically-slaves to work on our farms and threaten any city folk who want workers rights. I reckon we'd happily go 100,000 or so white, english-speaking peasants to replace the Bangladeshi and Indian "international students" and Chinese "457 visa" workers we have now... if you feel like competing for those positions?
Goodness, that thing is the Pacific Dawn. Until recently I had a cruise-addicted co-worker who loved that ship, had been on it several times and had a photo of it up above her desk along with the pictures of her kids. She was unhappy to learn it was being retired.
I'm not what sure setting up just outside Panama's territorial waters really achieves versus setting up on the land in a country like Panama, or versus setting up just outside the territorial waters of a more developed country. You'd have to question how independent the thing would be of the shore, especially if the operators are not setting up much in the way of medical and health services. I don't think I even want to know what "crypto spirit" entails, it sounds like cough medicine.
Greg
FUCK RIGHT OFF You would prefer an appointed, ohh ... President Gove, perhaps? Or Charlie's nightmare, President Blair? Or some other grovelling placeholding nonentity, encouraging fascism?
Just because I'd rather not have a hereditary head of state, no assume I'd find an elected one any more desirable. My political ideals tend more towards the anarcho-syndicalist.
Roy Maybe - but it's got to go to the Lords again - & they will nix/amend it - again .... The actual poin though is that it's a clear demonstration that BoZo is a deliberate liar who cannot be trusted - at all.
Desperate emigration from the UK ... Just get to NI & WALK to Eire & you're there!
Meanwhile, it's not looking good this morning.
Clive S Your political ideals are admirable - but that is NOT what you would get. Hello to the new boss, same as ( Or quite possibly worse than ) the old boss. Cromwell, Robespierre & Stalin come to mind, or any named Ayatollah.
Greg You're probably right, but the idealist in me says we've got to start somewhere. All systems are eventually corrupted and need renewal, constant vigilance and a willingness to consider acting pour encourager les autres are potentially the only counter-weights. But I've made it to 55 with most of my ideals intact, and damned if I'll give them up now.
GFA: the Good Friday Agreement. Peace accords in NI. Now the US is a guarantor of that, and so is the EU. It's more or less their legal duty to sanction us if we break it...
After lurking and reading for a number of years I thought I'd finally create and account and pot.
I'd add an increase scapegoating and hate attacks on various minority groups including those not deemed patriotic enough.
What would she do if shit got so bad it actually threatened the existence of the Monarchy?
It won't, precisely because she's been fanatically single-minded about staying out of day-to-day politics. It's one of the few British institutions that nobody can ascribe any blame to for the current mess.
Charles got into a mess about 15 years ago over the "black spider letters" to then PM Tony Blair. There were regarded, and rightly IMHO, as attempts to intervene in the Government of the day.
If the monarchy's going to survive post-Liz, he'd better have learned the lessons from that. Whether it should survive is a matter for another thread, and possibly not on this blog.
"Fisheries are a £400M industry in the UK at this point" Extra fun little wrinkle, most of that industry is based in Scotland, only about 30% is based in England.
Charlie @57: wrote The UK has already gone metric -- ages ago
The mile is so well entrenched that you can't register a vehicle with a metric speedometer in the UK (I tried). You can drive one, but you can't register it.
For those who think that in an élan of racial solidarity the Australians and Canadians will welcome white English refugees: there are decades of evidence there is no such solidarity within England itself (perhaps a millennium if you go back to the Harrowing of the North). Now there is a distinctive element of callousness towards the poor coiled deep within the English middle-class psyche that other Protestant cultures like Germany or Scandinavia do not share, but it would be foolhardy to assume other Anglo-Saxon societies are devoid of it.
Clive S Well, hopefully I will make it to 75 in 35 days time with my cynicism undiminished - or, more likely, given the main subject "improved" if you see what I mean.
Phinch I have a horrible suspicion that you are correct: "It's all the fault of the Liberal Remoaners" - coming to the pages of the Daily Hate-Mail any time soon.
Murphy's Lawyer Fake fuss. He was responding to a "Constituent's letter" as as member of either house of Parliament should do. As monarch, he could not do that, of course.
How likely is a newly independent Scotland to keep the monarchy?
Scotland will keep the monarchy, at least at first.
(It's the Scottish crown anyway, the English just borrowed it in 1606.)
I think support for the monarchy is lower in Scotland than in England, but it's still over 70% and support for a republic is under 20%. It can change in a decade (look at support for independence) but it's almost a certainty that it won't shift substantially until after Elizabeth II dies.
Not the first such ship, though The World is more residential and doesn't have the Dunning Krugerand requirement
Infantry picks up the notion of the "light" machine gun and then the GPMG, yet another heavy thing to carry in the adjustable weapon mix. Attacking into positions with emplaced machine guns isn't a delight, but everybody knows how to do it.
An interesting and undernoted discovery the British made during the Falklands conflict: when infantry were attacking a dug-in machine gun nest with a beaten field of fire, an infantry-portable anti-tank missile solved the problem very rapidly.
The Israeli army rediscovered this when they went after Hezbollah in Lebanon during the 2006 war: Hezbollah switched their defensive mix to two RPG gunners per single AK-74-armed infantryman and gave the IDF a very nasty surprise on the ground -- RPGs being effective not only against light armour (infantry fighting vehicles more than MBTs) but also against dismounted infantry, and at a far greater effective range than an assault rifle.
We haven't really seen any battles between a front-rank western military and an equivalent force (both in equipment and in training and doctrine) since the turn of the century -- the Iraqi army were barely more than a speed bump -- but I suspect if there's ever another conflict between "modern" armies it's going to go sideways very fast indeed as both sides learn which modern/smart weapons are vastly more effective than anyone anticipated, and which aren't worth a warm bucket of piss. Oh, and that infantry-portable assault rifles are basically self-defense sidearms, except in the hands of specialists.
One thing I think people haven't yet fully realized is that leaving the single market and customs union guarantees the increased fettering to goods entering and leaving GB. The lorry parks will be necessary, even if there is a deal. While the UK has said it won't enforce border checks on day 1, France (and the rest of the EU) have said they will. And - apparently - they are ready.
The ECMT permits required for UK trucks to operate in the EU are in very short supply - though this may change in a deal.
EU hauliers have said they'll probably avoid coming to the UK until things settle down.
It's not ridiculous to imagine that our entire JIT economy - not just food and medicine, automotive etc. but pretty much every physical good traded in the UK - will grind to a halt in January.
Don't they ever ask the Scots "Would you want Charles as King?"?
Not that I've noticed.
On the other hand: his gran lasted until she was 104, and his mum's only 94 now. There's a good chance he won't become king much before he's 75, so expect a ten year active reign followed by a staged hand-off of duties to Andrew (just as Elizabeth began to offload a bunch of her non-mandatory duties on Charles after she turned 90).
I'm expecting significant disruption to physical goods movement in the UK for some time after 1st of January. I think we will be lucky to avoid noticeable food shortages. We may actually end up with shortages of calories. These may be widespread.
Widespread calorie shortages are a bit of a game changer for a government and can rapidly spiral out of control. This is probably especially true if you are politically required to not plan or publicly prepare for calorie shortages because you have promised people things will be better not worse after 1st January.
I'll be interested to see if the food shortage situation is different in different parts of the UK. Specifically I'll be taking a close interest in Scotland. Scotland is a bit different from the rest of the UK. I think it produces more food per capita than England. It definitely has more of its population near a large port on the eastern coast and several of those ports are conveniently close to a petrol refinery. That might turn out to be important.
I think the UK is going to experience a bit of psychological blow in May when the Scottish elections happen. Unless there is a significant change in mood in Scotland in the next 4 or 5 months the SNP will win a majority of seats at Holyrood, probably with an absolute majority of the vote. The Scottish Green Party, also pro-independence will likely pick up between 5-10 seats in addition. And by May we'll have not 14 consecutive pro-indy polls but likely 40. I think at that point it might finally dawn on England and the government of England that the population of Scotland is settled on having a second referendum and probably settled on leaving the UK. I'm not sure that England really believes we would actually do that yet. What they do with this realisation I don't know. I'm not expecting that their response will that effective in the long-run. There is only so long you can tell people that their democratic and peaceful desire for a change is forbidden.
I would not be surprised if Spain actually annexes (de facto) Gibraltar in the next 5 or 10 years. At some point a Spanish government is going to find itself in domestic political difficulty and asserting their claim over Gibraltar is going to be a tempting way to divert attention from the issue of the day. The question for me is whether the Gibraltans value being British over being able to live comfortably in Gibraltar. If that happens the UK is going to find itself very isolated.
The EU is going to have to have a careful think about how it deals with separatist regions in the EU. My assumptions are that the EU and most EU countries would welcome an independent Scotland joining the EU and would do so for three reasons 1) the EU likes enlargement 2) Scotland is a pretty good candidate nation being already highly converged, pretty prosperous, already a European-style social democracy and 3) a nice opportunity to demonstrate to people that if you leave the EU bad things happen to you such as, your country splits and you lose 8% of your population and a third of your land. It would be helpful to the cause of Scottish independence and therefore Scottish accension to the EU if the EU could demonstrate support for Scottish accension and a clear and quick path to membership. That's tricky to do whilst Spain is still wrestling with Catalonia. I'm not sure that the EU has a clearly worked out plan here.
And of course Scotland's accession to the EU would bring substantial fishing grounds....
So long as Scotland leaves in a constitutional fashion, whatever that is in UK terms (in effect WM saying fine, go so) there is no Catalonia precedent .
"It would be helpful to the cause of Scottish independence and therefore Scottish accension to the EU if the EU could demonstrate support for Scottish accension and a clear and quick path to membership."
Until january 1st, (whatever happens), EU leaders are bound by the "comity rules" which prevent or at least discourages them from commenting on purely domestic issues of the member- and aligned countries.
Expect much more clarity of messaging in a little over three weeks time.
Charlie CORRECTION a staged hand-off of duties to
AndrewWilliam - surely?Meanwhile the mood music is geting worse. If we crash out, then food shortages are a certainty - the onbly question is - how bad will it get & what will emerge as a supposed "government" afterwards? We are theoretically stuck with this shower until December 2024 - how to trhow them out & have an election. Meanwhile, I'm going to look for the flag of William of Orange - this is geting unpleasantly like 1685-8 - something based on the shield should do United Kingdom, imped with that of Ornge/Holland! What will be the actual trigger that leads to BoZo's downfall, disgrace & exile-or-prison? In James II / VII case it was the trial of the Seven Bishops - this time around? I would suspect the loss of Gibralter might do it, actually - like 1688, at that point the armed services simply ignore BoZo's orders & desert to whoever is leading the "NewGloriousRevolution"
We are theoretically stuck with this shower until December 2024
Good news - you are off by 7 months.
The next UK election is scheduled for Thursday 2 May 2024 https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/
how to trhow them out & have an election.
Simple (if unlikely and thus not helpful) - put enough pressure on 81+ Conservative MPs such that they help collapse the government.
Secondary, and perhaps slightly more possible - put enough pressure on enough Conservative MPs such that not only do they finally oust Boris but they replace him with a reasonable leader and stop allowing a small number of extremists blackmail them into further extremism.
What will be the actual trigger that leads to BoZo's downfall, disgrace & exile-or-prison? In James II / VII case it was the trial of the Seven Bishops - this time around?
Nothing.
Boris is already the proverbial dead man walking, he is merely being kept around until the worst of the bad stuff is finished so the new leader can have a fresh start.
I would suspect the loss of Gibralter might do it, actually - like 1688, at that point the armed services simply ignore BoZo's orders & desert to whoever is leading the "NewGloriousRevolution"
Would it, or would there be lots of public platitudes about how unfortunate/unfair while secretly behind the scenes celebrating no longer having to deal with the Gibraltar problem?
Repealing the fixed term parliaments act is one of the governments priorities at the moment, so that's not a given.
It occurs to me that a solution to Gibraltar & the Falkland Islands is fairly simple: a referendum on whether they want to join Canada.
Now, joining Canada as two additional territories might be difficult, as it would require unanimous consent of all provinces, the federal government, and a referendum.
So they could get around it by using the "Nova Scotia" workaround. To explain: occasionally there's noise about the Turks and Caicos being annexed to Canada[1]. So Nova Scotia proposed that they be made part of NS, which gets around the multilateral deal which would be required to add new territory.
Simples. Just make sure that there are clauses that allow for sovereignty to pass to an independent Scotland (should the locals prefer the Scots to Canucks) if and when that happens.
~oOo~
[1] This has not gotten, and will never get, anywhere.
I think there are three scenarios for Johnson's exit as PM in 2021-22.
1) Johnson stands down voluntarily in January, citing mission accomplished on Brexit but the long-term impacts of Covid. He goes off to cash in writing newspaper columns and give lectures.
2) Johnson is informally forced to stand down following the May elections in Scotland and London and the English local elections.
3) Johnson is formally forced to stand down following a vote of no confidence by the Conservative Parliamentary Party in him as Conservative Leader. This following a period of difficulty for the government following a difficult Brexit, difficult May election results and a difficult COVID situation and Johnson failing to get a grip of them over the summer.
None of those lead to a General Election in the UK and the new Conservative PM inherits an 80-seat majority.
Not sure if the Falklands is a good idea. We have enough cold, remote places already.
hmmm @41: JBS @68: We're also playing out one of the Foundation novelettes: cut trade, make food expensive, but there are no bombs, no threats, fast-forward and the strongman folds. I don't know that the real world works like this, but Tories look like they really want to die as a party. Not yet, not for now, but who knows really. There are a lot idiots who want to jump into action, some of them already acting.
Side note, we're really lucky that these would-be fascist-adjacent strongmen-cosplayers are really stupid/incompetent. We won't get out of it unscathed, but it may not last more than a decade or so. Side note: when looking for fascist strongmen hanging around, the first duty is to check yourself into the mirror.
I'm pretty sure I understand "Magnitski" sanctions, but what is "GAF"?
I am myself not sure that in EU there are people who really understand what these sanctions are really about. To start off, they are not named after this man and barely have any connection to his persona. Except everybody think they are aimed at Russia, supposedly. Except formally they're not aimed at single target, it reads right here that this is "global human rights sanctions regime": https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2020/12/07/eu-adopts-a-global-human-rights-sanctions-regime/ They are not really sanctions but a "framework" that "allow it (EU) to target individuals, entities and bodies". Because all previous sanctions did not specify that much anything about mechanism and reasons, they were applied under the local law and direct recommendations under influence of the certain other laws and powers.
Mechanism was (and is), naturally, very simple - something 'bad" happens, people of goodwill and protectors of democracy unite and declare the perpetrator, then declare the measures, whip out directions and instructions and frown pompously on camera. Then go to business as usual. It is not entirely clear what these measures are aimed at. It is not clear what they intend to achieve. This should probably say something about state of affairs within organisation itself.
Thousands of "oligarchs", especially those who are escaped from taxes, prosecution and wanted at home, can not be target for them, if only for the simple burglary. And especially those who, like Lebedev, have completely torn ties with their fatherland. Bad Vlad in particular has warned these people many times that if they are holding their assets abroad, it is their fault for exposing themselves to these dangers. Party members and government officials of importance cannot be targets of these sanctions, because they are not stupid enough to be that vulnerable to foreign influence, after all these years that passed. The only rational explanation is that these sanctions do target the entire country and its citizens for not submitting to the higher orders and "international" norms dictated by bigger players, but this also hardly a news. And by the way, I am not talking about single specific country - there are, actually, too many countries that fit under these terms.
My current suggestion would be more humble. The EU officials are preventively shooting themselves in the leg with blank round to feign serious injury and do not attend upcoming leg-shooting convention overseas. Maybe that will work for them for the time being.
You can make an argument for the supremacy of artillery from 1915-1939
You can’t really make that argument after 1939, not so much because of armor but more combined arms especially armor + air
But in general it depends a lot on what kind of war you were fighting. Even in the 1915-1939 period not all wars were large army set piece wars.
I tried to post this earlier today, but something ate it.
Occasionally checking https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ I notice that the UK exchanges multihectomegawatts of electrical power with France, Belgium, Ireland, Holland. Is Brexit likely to complicate such arrangements?
I think a particular issue with English nationalism over the other nations, is the problem of Anglo-Saxon identity.
Similar to white American Nationalism, it’s a bunch of invaders who want to gloss over their history and pretend the have a claim to be native
(Obviously it’s not that straight forward as it was as much a cultural invasion - genetically large swathes on England are still largely ‘British’ rather than Anglo, even is culturally native speakers were driven back to Cornwall and Wales) l
All nationalism is fiction, but English nationalism requires a particular suspension of disbelief, of not looking too closely at the dodgy foundations, which may be why one it’s main tenets in ‘don’t criticise’.
I notice that the UK exchanges multihectomegawatts of electrical power with France, Belgium, Ireland, Holland. Is Brexit likely to complicate such arrangements?
I have read, but will certainly defer to people with more expertise, that much of the big trading has to do with where is power available for the lowest price at particular times. Also that the UK will have adequate generating capacity post Brexit, but average prices will be somewhat higher.
the MS Satoshi... to put out for international waters Real Soon Now.
Satoshi is now in the Atlantic, due to arrive at the Panama Canal 22 December.
Johnson stands down voluntarily in January, citing mission accomplished on Brexit
Ah, but Brexit is being enacted by a coalition! There are multiple objectives.
The xenophobes want a normalized white ethnostate by any means. That's why they're adamant that the ECHR has to go. They haven't got that yet; Windrush is just working out mechanics. It's nothing like as violent as this faction would prefer.
The mammonites want there to be no public goods or services; corporates can frack, mine, drill, expropriate etc. anywhere, and as a private person you get nothing you do not pay for directly and immediately and there can be absolutely no collective bargaining of any kind, including by the state on behalf of the citizens; nor may there be legal recourse by a person against a corporate. They haven't got that yet; COVID has interfered with that by getting the NHS some positive press.
The aristos want conditions where everyone but a fellow aristo must do what an aristo tells them, without limit or boundary. They haven't got that yet de facto, though the Henry VIII powers may mean that they've got that de jure. It seems unlikely they're not expecting to use widespread public hunger to further this goal.
Just getting a hard Brexit outcome -- certainly a core goal and important intermediate step -- does not accomplish the desires of any faction in the coalition. So Brexit isn't done with Hard Brexit; Brexit starts with Hard Brexit, as all three factions can then start vigorously pursuing their primary goals.
You can’t really make that argument after 1939, not so much because of armor but more combined arms especially armor + air
When it's not cavalry (reconnaissance/screening against reconnaissance), air is artillery. (Sometimes counter-battery artillery.) Air does not like to acknowledge this.
And, yes, type of conflict matters, but even in very small-scale conflicts, delivering packages of explosives tends to greater effectiveness than small arms.
Graydon Yuck - you may be correct. However ... on a hopeful note - he blinked!
When it's not cavalry (reconnaissance/screening against reconnaissance), air is artillery. (Sometimes counter-battery artillery.) Air does not like to acknowledge this.
Neither does artillery. Against an opponent without air defense capability, a B-52 staying on station for hours and occasionally kicking a smart munition out the door takes a lot less people than guns on the ground. And is at least as effective.
It does indeed mean a hopeful note - as much as it can be. Bozo blinked .... our glourious and strong leader? Nope, rubber backbone!
To me what that says is that he's trying to get a deal from the EU after all. And that what was written in the original post now fortunatly won't happen.
I will still say though that what I think will happen is that he'll get a deal, tell everyone how wonderful he is for getting one and how "great" it'll be. But come next year he'll throw his toys out of his pram and walk out. "Oh, evil EU! Not talking to you any more!".
What will happen in the coming weeks and months? Since bozo has had to betray someone and he's chosen his own ultra-brexiteers expect them to come out of hibernation at some point.
As for bozo boris leaving or being forced out - no chance. Remember that he's a 100% egomaniac like trump and will if it means he gets to stay on even a second longer would probably handcuff himself to the front of the building (in the case of the UK No. 10 downing street) if it meant he keeps to be PM just a bit longer.
ljones
(if only there was an edit function here).
What I meant by throwing his toys out of his pram is that it would happen during negociations between the UK and EU next year -- there's still a lot to discuss. Most people mistakenly think that come Dec 31st "that's it". But it won't be.
ljones
mdlve @ 91:
Yes, the Inuit and First Nations people were here on the physical land first, and were treaty atrociously since then.
And with all due respect to the Inuit & First Nations (and Native Americans), their ancestors were immigrants too - coming from Asia; whose ancestors emigrated from the Middle East; whose ancestors emigrated from Africa; whose ancestors descended from the trees & learned to walk upright..
1) Johnson stands down voluntarily in January, citing mission accomplished on Brexit but the long-term impacts of Covid. He goes off to cash in writing newspaper columns and give lectures.
Boris won't be allowed to/forced to stand down until it is a good time for a replacement leader to take over.
This means both the negative fallout from whatever form of Brexit happens and the Covid situation needs to be stable if not improving.
Thus he is good until at least April, at which point keep him around to either charm the electorate or take the blame for the next round of elections.
However ... on a hopeful note - he blinked!
The important question is who forced the blink, and not the spin.
If it was the House of Lords that forced it then the spin about the EU is meaningless - though it could be further spun to show how unreasonable the EU is if a deal isn't sorted out.
What will happen in the coming weeks and months? Since bozo has had to betray someone and he's chosen his own ultra-brexiteers expect them to come out of hibernation at some point.
One of the news sources I read today indicated that the ERG and hence the no-deal Brexit faction has more than 80 votes in the Conservative Party - thus any deal requires Labour to get through Parliament.
While that may get any deal Boris comes up with enacted, it will further weaken Boris and re-awaken the forces dividing the Conservative Party (take your choice whether that will be good or bad).
As for bozo boris leaving or being forced out - no chance. Remember that he's a 100% egomaniac like trump and will if it means he gets to stay on even a second longer would probably handcuff himself to the front of the building (in the case of the UK No. 10 downing street) if it meant he keeps to be PM just a bit longer.
Boris doesn't have a choice - just like Trump if the system says go he goes.
The only question is whether the Party votes to kick him out or if the power brokers behind the scenes convince him to resign - possibly by making a resignation a condition of returning to his very much needed overpaid columnist job.
"An interesting and undernoted discovery the British made during the Falklands conflict: when infantry were attacking a dug-in machine gun nest with a beaten field of fire, an infantry-portable anti-tank missile solved the problem very rapidly."
They worked that out in WW1 - they just didn't already have a suitable weapon in their toolkit. They had to invent it, which resulted in things like the Stokes mortar and rifle-launched grenades.
What I meant by throwing his toys out of his pram is that it would happen during negociations between the UK and EU next year -- there's still a lot to discuss. Most people mistakenly think that come Dec 31st "that's it". But it won't be.
That falls into the maybe category.
It assumes that there is a deal in place and that it isn't a no-deal Brexit.
If it is a no-deal Brexit then there isn't anything to negotiate.
But even with a deal, while there likely will be negotiations they won't be a priority for the EU - they have enough other issues (Covid, Hungary/Poland) to deal with rather than spending a lot of time worrying about the UK.
Michael Cain @ 98: Wasn't it Napoleon who said that God generally fights on the side of the heavier artillery? In response to an immediately-dismissed general who said that it didn't matter that he couldn't have the artillery in place in time, God was on France's side?
Didn't find when he said it or who he said it to, but Napoleon was an artillery officer first & foremost, and his handling of artillery was what led him to power (and kept him there as long as it did).
I suspect we will see plenty of 'down tools' and waiting for some parts something can be built.
Big factories love it when they shut down due to not having a door lock solenoid or similar.
My brother worked in the plant parts department for an overseas based auto company. By internal I mean the parts that ran the plant not the autos. He said at times if there was a rash of failures in some particular motor or similar that only existed in Europe. So did he order 10 shipped normally via container ship for a trivial amount of money and go with the projections that said the failure rate was OK to do it that way? Maybe 2 more via air freight and spend 10x the value of the widget? Or take his chances and maybe have to have someone fly over with one in checked luggage While 3000 people cleaned their work stations and caught up on training classes.
"Fisheries are a £400M industry in the UK at this point" Extra fun little wrinkle, most of that industry is based in Scotland, only about 30% is based in England. Mike W
And I think I recently heard/read that 60% to 70% of the catch is sent to the EU mainland.
The mile is so well entrenched that you can't register a vehicle with a metric speedometer in the UK (I tried). You can drive one, but you can't register it.
I was in Canada in 80/81 and was told that when they went hard metric the highway department didn't change a lot of the exit signs around Toronto that said things like "Exit 99 - 1/2 mile". They just change the "mile" to "KM" as the law said "must be done" And then asked for more money to change all the numbers. Moving they signs they were NOT going to do.
Canadians please correct me if I'm wrong.
“If it is a no-deal Brexit then there isn't anything to negotiate.” If it’s a no deal Brexit there will be everything to negotiate.
If it’s a no deal Brexit there will be everything to negotiate.
For the successor-state to the present UK, yes. But the EU is not likely to be in anything like a hurry to enter into such negotiations; they'll want to be reasonably certain the successor state is both stable and tolerable.
takes a lot less people than guns on the ground.
And no forward basing. Or at least not nearly as forward.
If it’s a no deal Brexit there will be everything to negotiate.
Except a negotiation requires at least 2 - and after around 4 years of this my guess is the EU are not going to be in any hurry to start talking to the UK yet again if a no-deal exit happens.
I mean, they have been very polite, but they are very tired of the infantile games the UK political class are playing.
hmmm @ 121: GFA: the Good Friday Agreement. Peace accords in NI. Now the US is a guarantor of that, and so is the EU. It's more or less their legal duty to sanction us if we break it...
Thanks. And thanks to the other poster who provided that information (that I'm too lazy to scroll up & find the name) as well.
Because it came up in the context of tariffs, I was trying to figure out a trade agreement (à la NAFTA or TPP) that would use that acronym
I always associate the Good Friday Agreement with peace plan agreements ... although I guess the Good Friday Agreement does include trade provisions, I don't really think of it that way so it hit me in a bit of a blind spot.
There are very few such signs in my province, so no big expense to change.
They want it to indicate the speed limit points without requiring mental unit conversion. Putting sticky paper labels on the dial at the appropriate points is good enough. Certainly used to be a pretty standard thing for grey import motorcycles.
Mike W @ 125:
Charlie @57: wrote
The mile is so well entrenched that you can't register a vehicle with a metric speedometer in the UK (I tried). You can drive one, but you can't register it.
Why don't they do like they do here in the U.S. - put both Mph and Kmph on the speedometer?
mdive Very slight correction: "they are very tired of the infantile games Some of the UK political class are playing." NO-ONE in the EU will trust the tories with anything, except, perhaps a used, secondhand bog-brush, for a very long time, indeed.
JBS They do,: - my 1996-build Land-Rover has metric speed markings as well as miles.
@Greg #71:
USAians may be surprised to discover that the good 'ol USA is also a metric nation. They are full members of the Metre Convention and the US customary units have been defined in terms of metric units for quite some considerable time. Picking through the various Acts, international agreements etc. to figure out exactly what was agreed when and by whom is annoying, but it is so.
Never heard that one. I'm surprised, given that distance signs generally have the numbers and units on the same sign. But I wasn't in Ontario then so that might have happened.
I remember that the first conversions were generally 'soft' conversions rather than changing sizes. Which led to strangeness like 6 inch fibreglass insulation being relabeled 15.24 cm insulation (which was way too precise).
In Saskatchewan we had a number of Americans who just looked at the numbers on the speed limit signs and ignored the (new) "km/h" labels and got ticketed for doing 100 mph in a 100 km/h zone, and got upset about it.
(That was in friendlier days when the border was just a line, and a book like Between Friends/Entres Amis could be published non-ironically.)
Um, I see today that Trumpolini is apparently going to use Air Force 1 to fly to a rally on Inauguration Day, and have that against the Inauguration.
Wait... his Barony is ALL OF SIBERIA?
I think Siberians should send delegations to him to deal with things....
USAians may be surprised to discover that the good 'ol USA is also a metric nation.
And we mean it!(*)
South of Tucson, on I-19:
https://www.google.com/maps/@32.0530953,-110.9926402,3a,75y,23.89h,94.82t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sVrE4aqSy6rbgbP7xWLJnFw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656
(*) Not really, alas.
Of course, some of those desires conflict with others. For example, I guarantee the aristos object, vociferously, to the lumpenproletariat who have no skills, other than perhaps violence, being in charge of anything.
For that matter, that's why I do not believe that they will start a civil war in the US: all chiefs, no Indians, and massive incompetence, with heavy dosages of disbelief in their own incompetence.
Fortunately, their population is slowly going down (though not fast enough), being that they vehemently object to any method of self-protection other than firearms. Masks, of course, are for weaklings.
danieldwilliam @ 134: I'm expecting significant disruption to physical goods movement in the UK for some time after 1st of January. I think we will be lucky to avoid noticeable food shortages. We may actually end up with shortages of calories. These may be widespread.
Widespread calorie shortages are a bit of a game changer for a government and can rapidly spiral out of control. This is probably especially true if you are politically required to not plan or publicly prepare for calorie shortages because you have promised people things will be better not worse after 1st January.
I doubt the Banksters and the Lords will suffer from any shortage of calories.
I don't think it would be costly. It would be a simple, self-provided method of removal from the gene pool.
And now it's air, unless you're talking about a city within, say, 20 mi of the ocean, in which case they can de--mothball a battleship, as they did - was it during the invasion and conquest of Iraq?
I see someone says they're going to anchor off Panama.
I would assume three reasons: 1. supplies. 2. cheap labor for repairs, maintenance, and running the ship. 3. They don't want to be on land in Panama. For a definitive explanation of that, I refer you to the US "arresting" President Noriega.
Wait... his Barony is ALL OF SIBERIA?
There was a Poul Anderson story set in a post-present future that had a Dominion of Baikal. I always liked that...
Speaking of "send food", although none of you in the UK are a bookstore, this is the blog of a writer.
Contact us offlist if we do have to send you food.
We are cutting the numbers of hyperpsuedoChristian preachers, though I haven't started seeing a reduction in the ultrawealthy who run them....
Occassionally. Kicking. A. Smart. Munition.
Ever seen pics of the B-52s in use during 'Nam? Each one with dozens and dozens of bombs....
Now, wait a minute: having been a pee-on, which is the same as a peasant, we're already revolting!
Charlie, ok, what have you missed?
Now, I don't really know what the suckers (pro-brexit) are like there, but if they're anything like here, when the effluent is in the ventilation, are they likely to get violent?
Related: are a major percentage of those in big cities, or outside?
Consider, also, that the shortages are likely to hit large cities faster and harder. I can see part of London coming downtown.....
It will be extremely funny if he is expecting to be flown back, and the crew decide that he can damn well walk, being no longer president.
Whitroth #181:
I'm not sure they can realistically bring back the Iowa class ships anymore. Amongst other things, I think they have the problem that there are insufficient men left who know how to drive them for it to be realistic to train up a full crew for them. By modern naval standards they need a shit-tonne of sailors.
The Zumwalt class were supposed to be the replacement for to-shore bombardment capability. But opps, overspend, we can't afford to buy the ammunition for the guns:
The USS Zumwalt Can't Fire Its Guns Because the Ammo Is Too Expensive https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/a23738/uss-zumwalt-ammo-too-expensive/#:~:text=we%20test%20gear.-,The%20USS%20Zumwalt%20Can't%20Fire%20Its%20Guns,the%20Ammo%20Is%20Too%20Expensive&text=Just%20three%20weeks%20after%20commissioning,the%20rounds%20are%20too%20expensive.
palm meet face.
Canada has only every partially converted to metric, despite being a definitively metric country.
A month or two ago my eldest was repeatedly described by the broadcast announcer commenting on his hockey game as 6'2", 205 lbs despite him having been born over 30 years since the formal conversion.
In the construction/maintenance world almost all measurements remain Imperial. Lumber is sold by the foot, drywall is sold in 4'x8' sheets, wire and other such materials are sold by the foot. The metric measurements are available, but used by nobody.
The most exasperating problem comes in trying to follow a recipe, where I have many times come across instructions using a random collection of both systems. Add 115g of flour to 2 Tbsp of butter. Heat oven to 425F, then mix together 250 ml .....
I continue to regret that the opportunity was not taken to set speed limits in metres/second, which is an actually useful unit for driving.
Anything per hour is a navigation unit; it helps you answer "how far away is <place>?". It doesn't tell you much about how far behind the vehicle in front you ought to be.
There's been several generations of ramp-mounted bomb racks and especially small munitions for C-130s for precisely this reason.
It functions as great expense and ingenuity to produce enemies; it has not been anything like decisive.
Which is something that is too easily forgotten in imperial wars; the point is not to fight. The point is to achieve your purpose. (If your purpose has become "to fight", well. You have a systemic failing.)
NO-ONE in the EU will trust the tories with anything, except, perhaps a used, secondhand bog-brush, for a very long time, indeed.
"Politicians 'Trusting' Each other? Oh, Come ON ..perhaps it s because you are so very innocent that you believe in TRUST in politicians? If you are of the voting electorate in a democracy you dont TRUST politicians: this not if you have any sense at all ..you use them and then discard them when they have served their purpose. Note the present political credibility of the once highly regarded Tony Blair? Who is now selling his services to the Powerful in return for Money ..and maybe for favours for his children and grandchildren ? .... "Politicians have rarely been trusted. The 2009 expenses scandal therefore did not lead to a collapse in trust in politics and politicians, because levels of trust were already so low. Public dissatisfaction with politics is based on deeper problems. Rather than trust, this report – published for the start of the first post-expenses-scandal Parliament in 2010 – identified the more urgent challenge as being the decline in the relevance of politicians and political institutions to people’s everyday lives." https://www.hansardsociety.org.uk/publications/reports/whats-trust-got-to-do-with-it-public-trust-in-and-expectations-of
In Saskatchewan we had a number of Americans who just looked at the numbers on the speed limit signs and ignored the (new) "km/h" labels and got ticketed for doing 100 mph in a 100 km/h zone, and got upset about it.
Driving the M1 Motorway from Dublin to Belfast, in previous years when you hit the NI border (prior to any Brexit crackpot arrangements) the only indication would be a road sign saying "distances/speeds now in miles".
Then, it being a motorway, the very next speed limit sign you see is:
(That's a UK "national speed limit for this road type" sign. Which on motorways and dual carriageways is 70mph, on single-carriageway A roads is 60mph for cars but IIRC lower for trucks, and so on. It's all required knowledge to pass a UK driving test.)
Windscale @ 173: @Greg #71:
USAians may be surprised to discover that the good 'ol USA is also a metric nation. They are full members of the Metre Convention and the US customary units have been defined in terms of metric units for quite some considerable time. Picking through the various Acts, international agreements etc. to figure out exactly what was agreed when and by whom is annoying, but it is so.
What they may find even more astounding is WHEN the U.S. Government adopted metric. And how long it's been going on. (Hint: President Thomas Jefferson sent to France for "artifacts" the U.S. could use to set up the metric system here).
The key to using metric in the U.S. is to not bother with conversions, use traditional weights & measures when you need them and use metric when you need it. It's 'X' kilometers from here to there. How many miles is that? I don't care! If I needed to know how many miles it is, I'd have measured it in miles to begin with.
Ever seen pics of the B-52s in use during 'Nam? Each one with dozens and dozens of bombs....
Times have changed, especially since they figured out (a) how to replace horribly expensive and fiddly laser guidance on bombs (that require a spotter plane as well as a bomb truck) with cheap GPS guidance packages, and (b) how to retrofit GPS guidance onto stockpiled WW2-era dumb bombs.
In the 1992 Kuwait conflict with Iraq, about 10% of bombs dropped were smart bombs, but they did about 85% of the damage. In the 2003 invasion, about 90% of the bombs were smart.
And now atom bombs are obsolescent in terms of their original military mission requirement ("take out enemy weapons factory with a single bomb instead of tying up the resources for a thousand bomber raid"), insofar as nukes are politically unacceptable, cause huge collateral damage, and spread fallout everywhere ... and instead you can send an F-15 to drop a 1945-vintage 500lb bomb with a 2010-vintage GPS guidance package that does the same job without taking out the city wrapped around the target.
And this has led to Changes in the typical mission of a B-52, to say the least. A while back there was even a European proposal to turn the Airbus A400M -- think in terms of a Hercules on steroids: quad-turboprop military freight transport -- into a "non-penetrating bomber" that would sit outside hostile airspace and occasionally throw a drone or a cruise missile inside. Same payload as a B-52, vastly cheaper to build and operate, somewhat more vulnerable to modern air defenses (you would not sent one to mix it with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, never mind Chinese or Russian air defenses), basically the airborne equivalent of a 19th century river gunboat for colonial wars.
Related: are a major percentage of those in big cities, or outside?
The UK has far less "outside" than most Americans realize -- it's a very densely-packed island, so even though it's officially only about 70% city dwellers and 30% countryside, the actual density per square kilometer of country folk is comparable to US suburbia.
Oh, and London voted "remain" by a significant margin. They're guaranteed to be pissed.
As long as we're allowing bombers into the discussion, I was impressed to learn that the B-2 can carry 80 500 lb JDAMs. Those being iron bombs converted into individually programmable glide bombs that can deviate at least 10 km from their drop point and strike within 10 meters of the target.
The UK has far less "outside" than most Americans realize
Back in the 70s we visited England on a holiday to see the relatives. Parents rented a camper van so we could see all the places they talked about (Stonehenge, Nottingham Castle, hill forts, etc…)
My little sister refused to believe we were going from one town to another because it was all built-up. Finally we passed an open field and she was happy, because now we'd finally gone between towns…
(In Saskatchewan towns are separated by long stretches of prairie.)
It was nice, but the whole place felt rather cramped and crowded.
I recall a friend of mine trying to register a car in Switzerland, imported from Canada. His dual marked speedometer did not pass as the miles numbers were bigger than the km numbers.
But I particularly like British temperature scales-- up to about 30 C use C; above that use F the closer it gets to 100...
The B-2 that was built and fielded is effectively the Guppy version of the original design, which had a profile much closer to the proposed B-21. The change was mostly so it could carry that twenty ton bomb load.
Add 115g of flour to 2 Tbsp of butter
Not to mention that grams and Tbsp measure different things.
Someone, maybe here, made an impassioned plea to replace recipe volume measurements (Tbsp, cup, cc) with weight(*) ones. I sympathize. Good kitchen scales are cheap these days. For liquids that are about as dense as water you can wing 1 gm = 1 cc, but not flour or even butter.
(*) Yes, a gram is a unit of mass, not weight/force, but you can go just so far...
Re: Brits immigrating to Canada
Looks like Brits are already one of the largest immigration groups in Canada. Seems it's fairly easy for them too: have a decent educational background*, come over for a visit and ... stay.
https://canadaimmigrants.com/uk-immigrants-to-canada/
The link above doesn't mention what proportion of immigrating Brits already had any family in Canada. Family (esp. if they can find you a job) is usually a major plus for immigration among Western countries.
I always associate the Good Friday Agreement with peace plan agreements ... although I guess the Good Friday Agreement does include trade provisions,
The major sticking point is that the GFA states no border checks for trade between north and south. Easy when both sides are parts of the EU but a trifle tricky once they're not. No Deal Brexit with the GFA still in force means customs checks are required for anything crossing the Irish Sea which upsets the Unionists, repudiating the GFA upsets the Republicans and makes it awkward for the UK to negotiate anything in the future.
Ongaku @ 201
Your friend bought something on the grey market in Canada.
All cars or trucks sold through normal channels in Canada have big km numbers on the outer ring of the speedometer and little, less legible, miles numbers on the inner ring.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/autos/speed-check-how-fast-are-you-really-driving-1.3445497
We saw lots of open land in '14. Drove from London, religious pilgrimages (Stonehenge, of course), to Reading, to Bath. Bath to Glastonbury, to Bristol. Then into Wales....
Wales: 1/6 the land area of England, 1/20 the population. That'll do it. Also, in general, the further west you go on the Great Britain land mass, the lower the population density. (GB runs from south-east to north-west: Edinburgh, on the east of Scotland, is to the west of almost everywhere in England, for example. Wales and Bristol are also to the west.)
Apparently many Brits have an issue with the concept of tea/tablespoons in recipes, because they vary so much. The answer of course is the measuring spoon sets that are easily available everywhere that commonly use them in recipes! I'm converting downloaded recipes to weights as I use them, as there are effectively standard measures for this stuff. There is just occasional trap like NZ tablespoons being 15ml vs the 20ml in most other places. I really don't understand why some use cups for butter, way too awkward! BTW, NZ blocks of butter have 50g increments marked on the wrapping.
whitroth @ 181: And now it's air, unless you're talking about a city within, say, 20 mi of the ocean, in which case they can de--mothball a battleship, as they did - was it during the invasion and conquest of Iraq?
"Desert Storm", and it had already been de-mothballed for several years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Missouri_(BB-63)
Range of the main battery was 20.550 Nautical Miles (38.059 km) but she was also equipped to fire Tomahawk Cruise missiles (Operational range 700 - 1350 nmi (1,300 - 2,500 km) depending on variant) and Harpoon Anti-Ship missiles (Operational range in excess of 150 nmi (280 km) depending on launch platform).
I really don't understand why some use cups for butter
The worst is "cup of cubed butter", making it clear that they expect you to put lumps of butter in a cup rather than melting it, so even the volume is uncertain.
Stuff like that defeats even my stepfather, he of the "here are the exact ingredients, mix and cook to taste" recipes.
Meanwhile The willy-waving gets worse anything is possible & my brain hurts.
whitroth Outside - rural hicks in US-speak. The cities tend towards being strongly remoaners.
Charlie @ 197 Or even the RAF solution - take a 1-tonne bomb, remove the explosives, fill it with concrete & use "paveway" to fly it thorough the individual office window you want to target .... at about mach 0.95
Allen Thompson "Spoons" are in fact metric volume measurements: tsp=5ml, dsp=10ml, tbsp=15ml - said he, who uses metric weight & volume all the time in my bread-making activities - 5 regular recipes + one or two occasionals - & I haven't bought bread of any sort for over 3 years, now.
whitroth @ 186:
Ever seen pics of the B-52s in use during 'Nam? Each one with dozens and dozens of bombs....
Vietnam was a lifetime ago
https://taskandpurpose.com/app/uploads/2020/11/image-placeholder-title-1039.jpg
This photo is from 2006 before the USAF proposed to QUADRUPLE the under-wing bomb load
I really don't understand why some use cups for butter, way too awkward! BTW, NZ blocks of butter have 50g increments marked on the wrapping.
Because it's simple, at least in North America.
Butter is sold in 1 lb blocks (454g in Canada), and that conveniently is 2 cups.
And as an equivalent to your markings, butter here has the markings for 1 cup, 1/2 cup/ 1/4 cup on the wrapper.
whitroth @ 187: Now, wait a minute: having been a pee-on, which is the same as a peasant, we're already revolting!
You could take a shower.
"Politicians 'Trusting' Each other? Oh, Come ON ..perhaps it s because you are so very innocent that you believe in TRUST in politicians?
Your confusing 2 different issues, the trust between politicians and the trust of politicians by the public.
In the not that far past there was a reasonable level of trust between politicians - they might have party differences/etc but in general if they agreed to something it was honoured.
Recent politicians have broken that tradition, and we are still seeing the fallout from that break playing out.
I would read that, and assume I put in a cup of butter, then use a pastry blender.
I will say that I was expecting more sheep in Wales than we saw. Couldn't have gotten enough wool off them to have made a sock for the Island....
It will be extremely funny if he is expecting to be flown back, and the crew decide that he can damn well walk, being no longer president.
In the past new Presidents have allowed the ex to be flown "home" or wherever as a parting gesture.
If Trump really does fly someone on his own before noon I can expect them to close the door at 12:01pm and say "adios".
I'm not sure they can realistically bring back the Iowa class ships anymore. Amongst other things, I think they have the problem that there are insufficient men left who know how to drive them
There have also been enough parts removed to make it hard to put them back together. Making them into museums for most boiler fired ships has meant lots of cutting and welding. And removing asbestos and other things which basically make them into a very interested barge.
I think there was a link her to one of the last USN boiler chiefs (or similar) who wrote an essay on his career. It IS a learned skill that book learning can't come close to replacing.
The USS Zumwalt Can't Fire Its Guns Because the Ammo Is Too Expensive
Well they cut the number of ships (and thus guns) from 32 to 3 the ammo order got so small that the cost of the line to build the amo totally swamped the production costs.
Lumber is sold by the foot, drywall is sold in 4'x8' sheets, wire and other such materials are sold by the foot.
The elephant sized construction market south of you kind of swamps your local market. My son-in-law worked in a dry wall plant for 5 years. I suspect they would charge more than a few pennies to make it in other than 4 foot wide sizes. Especially as it was made on a continuous process line that I think was around 500' long.
Elderly Cynic @189: It will be extremely funny if he is expecting to be flown back, and the crew decide that he can damn well walk, being no longer president.
Really stupid too, because he won't be flying anywhere on government aircraft after Biden takes the oath. I expect he's planning to stay at Mar-a-lago.
He might fly at government expense if New York State indicts him for tax evasion & financial fraud. But it'll be economy class back in steerage with the U.S. Marshals handling his extradition to New York.
Right, I was aware of sticks as sub-units of NA butter.
Graydon @ 192: I continue to regret that the opportunity was not taken to set speed limits in metres/second, which is an actually useful unit for driving.
Anything per hour is a navigation unit; it helps you answer "how far away is ?". It doesn't tell you much about how far behind the vehicle in front you ought to be.
Two seconds. Doesn't matter what speed you're going, you should always be at least 2 seconds behind the vehicle in front of you. More is good, less is bad.
JBS @ 222
He doesn't have to say at Mar-a-lago all the time.
He'll be using his own private Boeing 757. The latest news is that it's being refitted to be put back into regular use. It had been placed in storage in 2019.
"Someone, maybe here, made an impassioned plea to replace recipe volume measurements (Tbsp, cup, cc) with weight(*) ones. I sympathize. Good kitchen scales are cheap these days. For liquids that are about as dense as water you can wing 1 gm = 1 cc, but not flour or even butter."
In the USA bulk butter is sold in 1-lb boxes. In each box there are four 1/4 lb sticks, wrapped in wax paper. On the paper there are marks by the Tbsp for cutting the right amount.
"Oh, another thing I forgot in the original post: GDPR disappears on January 1st, leaving us exposed to foreign personal data mining and in the hands of a government that has already gutted the data protection registrar and is happy to sell us down the river to Palantir."
You will like being a colony of the USA; just look at how well the US government handling a monster hurricane hitting Puerto Rico.
In Saskatchewan towns are separated by long stretches of prairie.
Some friends talk about visiting her parents in Montana for the holidays. Christmas and/or Thanksgiving. First thing after landing and renting a car they go to local thrift shops and buy appropriate cold weather gear. The call ahead to let them know they are on the way. So that if they don't show up in 5 hours a search can be started. No cell service after an hour. Maybe less.
Similar on the return. If they don't check in after 5 hours a search can be started. And they then stop by the thrift store and donate back all the gear then head to the airport.
mdlve @ 214:
Because it's simple, at least in North America.
Butter is sold in 1 lb blocks (454g in Canada), and that conveniently is 2 cups.
And as an equivalent to your markings, butter here has the markings for 1 cup, 1/2 cup/ 1/4 cup on the wrapper.
I just went and looked in the refrigerator. Around here butter is packaged as "Four 4 Oz Sticks" and the label on the box reads "1 pound (16 oz) 453g". Each stick comes with 8x1 Tbsp increments marked on the wrapper, along with 2 x 1/4 cup increments (labeled "4 Tablespoons = 1/4 Cup"), a 1/3 cup increment and the notation "8 Tbsp=1/4LB=1/2Cup".
So if you can't figure it out, maybe you should let someone else do the cooking.
PS: @ 214 - Not YOU specifically, but "you" everybody else who is not me.
David L @ 221:
The elephant sized construction market south of you kind of swamps your local market. My son-in-law worked in a dry wall plant for 5 years. I suspect they would charge more than a few pennies to make it in other than 4 foot wide sizes. Especially as it was made on a continuous process line that I think was around 500' long.
Most dry-wall is sold in 4'x12' sheets. The 4x8 stuff is mostly for DIY'rs & small home repair people who only need a few sheets at a time. Four by eight sheets will fit in most pickup truck beds (especially if you leave the tailgate down.
Even in Home Depot & Lowe's most of the drywall is sold in 12' sheets.
Ummm... what makes you think Trump really believes that Biden will be president at 12:01 pm?
Yes. Agreed.
"Spoons" are in fact metric volume measurements: tsp=5ml, dsp=10ml, tbsp=15ml
Yes, those are the ratios used in the US on the rare occasions when such conversions are made. I have no idea how that came about.
As long as we're doing this, note the differences between oz mass/force/weight, grams mass/force/weight, fluid oz and cc.
Must be local. I've only seen 4x8 sheets of drywall, MD, PA, IL, TX, FL.
It's 2400 by 1200 here, like most sheet materials. Except of course some sheet materials come in 2440 by 1220. In the case of the former, it's as though someone said "well we always used to sell 4x8, and that's a convenient size for most users; lets keep doing that but round down to the nearest 100mm to keep the weirdly specific number insanity to a minimum". In the case of the latter, they didn't do that, and maybe also export to the USA or something (it's easier to have two sets of stamps than it is to have two sets of machines).
Of course then there's the whole argument about whether 300 microns is within tolerances, so you can just label a 1/2" spanner as 13mm and vice versa...
if you can't figure it out
So exactly how much butter is in one cup of cubed butter? It being obvious and all that.
Yeah, that particular measurement really sticks with me. Do they mean one cup of butter, cut into cubes? Butter cut into cubes, neatly stacked in a cup (what size cubes)? Wouldn't it be easier for everyone to just say "250 grams" or "17/84ths dromedaries" and that way there's no ambiguity.
Also, remember that a clove of garlic is different to a bulb of garlic.
Re machine gun nests, artillery, line of sight.
My nephew is a drone racer. If you've never seen it, it's worth Googling. I couldn't believe the drone he races, the camera faces almost straight up. Because at full power it basically ignores gravity and has 4 propulsion fans. Lift doesn't come into it except as a rounding error.
They're unbelievably fast. You can't hear it coming. He races through tight spaces and really small windows. Add a small bomb that explodes when it hits the body of an enemy and you've got the anti tank missile idea on steroids. https://youtu.be/7wFEYnRVjc0 I can't beehive that there's not some military type looking at these races and thinking the same. It's surely going to change what warfare looks like.
2440x1220 is usually a furniture size I think, and it's commonly used for things that might be expected to clad something made out of 1200x2400 sheets. It is very, very annoying to not have extra few millimetres to avoid a join and not have them. Which means veneers and veneer plys are sometimes available in both sizes and you really should check before ordering (and also check prices, sometimes the smaller sheet is 5x the price because who the hell orders not quite enough veneer to cover a sheet?)
In some applications metric equivalents are not "near enough". Specifically, often the imperial equivalent is ever so slightly larger. So if you have a circuit board with some gap specified as 0.01mm when the imperial-sized machine require 0.4 thou/400 mil, you'll find that 0.01mm is 397 mil and your design will be rejected.
The really common "not quite" sizing is drills for tapping threads. The official thread size is what the completed bolt will slide through, so the tapped hole starts smaller. How much smaller is often ridiculously precise.
This is why you can buy 4.23mm drill bit, for example... after you run a 5mm tap through it you can put a 5mm bolt in. Amusingly these are normally sold as "nominal sizing" rounded to one decimal place. They ARE NOT the nominal size. You can test this by making a hole the actual nominal size in some nice hard steel then breaking a tap off in it. Your actual-size hole is slightly too small and the tap will not go through. That extra 0.03mm is really quite important after all.
I believe the same applies to imperial sizes, but they gain extra fun by having different size drills for the same final thread size depending on which imperial thread they're cutting. You poor buggers.
I've only seen 4x8 sheets of drywall
Do it yourselfers use mostly 4x8 because handling larger is a definite skill. Or you want a lift. Most builders order 4x12 or 4x16. Which many times are not stacked at Home Depot or Lowe's. Few tape joints mean less cost of labor.
I have a carry handle for such sheets of drywall and wood and once past 1/2" they can still be a pain to handle.
so you can just label a 1/2" spanner as 13mm and vice versa...
Works great until it doesn't and you round off that bolt. [grin]
Been there. Got the hat.
USAians may be surprised to discover that the good 'ol USA is also a metric nation.
The only people who think such don't use mechanical tools much or at all. And are delusional.
Those of us with such tool sets think it is just plain wonderful that we get to buy twice as many sockets, wrenches, drill bits, etc... as the rest of the world to work on mechanical things.
We are having a shortage of small (5 and 7 cubic feet) freezers in the US. And a shortage of mason jars for canning.
Seems that people expect a food shortage over the winter.
Anything similar happening in the UK? Any other appliances/furnishings/tools that are becoming hard to find?
Does the UK have a prepper movement similar to America's? Tiny homes? Off the grid living? Self sustainable farms and gardens?
Militia movements?
What you need is the one size fits all universal nut fucker
I really don't understand why some use cups for butter, way too awkward!
The butter in my fridge has markings for volume measurements on the wrapper. Much easier than weighing it.
Ah, the adjustable spanner: designed to round off the head of a bolt no matter what the exact size.
Militia? In the UK? Well, not in the sense of gun-wanking massively overweight drunk reichwing nutjobs. I wouldn’t be surprised if the average football hoolie gang could take any of them with just bricks, scarves and sheer brute violence.
Why would they need bricks?
Until someone has wedged a larger flat screw driver against a bolt head with a wedge of some sort (typically something else in the tool box) to hold it while you use an adjustable wrench vertically against the nut, well, you are not yet a mechanic.
That's why you buy the OSFAUNF with the spike on the end. Much better for wedging things than those wide ends with the hole in.
RE: Butter. One American stick is 1/2 cup, and the wrapper's marked off in 1/8ths, because 8 tablespoons=1/2 cup, and 16 tablespoons=1 cup, and one tablespoon=one pat of butter.
As my wife found out when she spooned ghee out of a large jar to replace butter in a recipe, it's actually easier and faster to chop up sticks of butter to meet a volumetric measurement than it is to weigh out the butter.
I'm quite sure they're looking at guided, armed drones. It's been a thing since before the kamikaze.
The trouble isn't guiding the drones, it's dealing with the countermeasures. I think we had a thread on this some time ago, about how ubiquitous countermeasures for guidance, GPS, optical and emissions fooling scenery, and such are likely to become standard defenses around hardened targets. Not fun to walk through or use a phone in, but in some sense secure.
Also, it still is easier to put a drone up a 40,000' launching GIS guided missiles. And harder to stop, because you've got to catch the missile in flight, and gravity is on its side.
Of course, the bigger solution to much of this is to develop the technology to rapidly disable GIS satellites. Speaking of which, did you know that this year the US hatched its first commissioned lieutenants in the new US Space Force?
Now how'd we get onto this topic again?
They generally go by the name “loitering munitions” are fully deployed and operational and were pretty instrumental in the recent Azerbaijani / Armenian war
https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/10/10/the-azerbaijan-armenia-conflict-hints-at-the-future-of-war
The butter in my fridge has markings for volume measurements on the wrapper. Much easier than weighing it.
I think commercially produced butter (and margarine, which I mostly use) is uniform enough in its consistency that this is not that much of a problem. The margarine (for baking, there's a different type of a container for spreading on bread) in my fridge has markings for weight, which is a good thing, because Finnish recipes tend to measure solid fats in weight instead of volume.
For flour and sugar, for example, it's volume, usually in decilitres. Smaller things are measured in tablespoons, teaspoons or "maustemitta", which might be translated as "spice measure". (And as we all know, the spice must flow.) They are 15 ml, 5 ml and 1 ml, respectively, though usually I just use the respective spoons or just eyeballing it in the case of the smallest amount.
Lately, during perhaps the last ten years, I've noticed that the kitchen volume measurement tools seem to have also cups printed on them. I have the impression that they are American cups, so 2.4 dl, but I don't usually need them so I haven't really measured them, or even looked at them closely enough.
Now, where kitchen things get really interesting is all the fermented milk products, which seem to be quite varied depending on the country. I think Sweden has ones most close to the Finnish ones ("kermaviili" and "piimä" are quite difficult to get in most places).
Well the other “until” is until you use the cutting wheel on the angle grinder to make a slot in the head for the aforementioned large flat screwdriver. If the nut is rounded too, you drill a hole in the side for a small self-tapping screw. Bit complicated to convey on a hat, but worth trying...
I was thinking more like a replacement for a rifle or shoulder mounted missile.
Think 1/8th size grenade that you can fly with goggles. Fly into a building. Fly through a window. Along with 10 others flown by your 10 friends who are in some bushes 4 miles away.
Quote: GDPR disappears on January 1st, REALLY? Quite sure of that? The Boss works in finance/tax & her tech people & the big bosses are trying their best to keep up with the changes, for obvious reasons: No mention of this at all. She thinks it's probably because GDPR is in UK legislation, anyway (?)
timrowldge Usually spelt: "Millwall", of course 😁 ( Bricks are for throwing at the second or third line, while they are nutting the front row! )
"Cups" Forget it - For liquids, use a calibrated jug, for almost everything else a moden digital scale does the job. Remember that I'm making & baking bread in some form or other at least once a week & often twice.
In other news - maybe, just maybe ... we have a working tokamak generating fusion power ....
Sort of like a cross between a missile and a... knife? Well an exploding knife that relays video. So some sort of .... knife ... missile?
Maybe more like a replacement for hand grenades. Frag grenades are less than half a kilo, HE grenades a little less again... these are both very achievable weights for a drone to carry (the concern would be how many the human can carry in a pack, along with the goggles and controller handset). Multiple of miniature recoilless rounds could be possible too perhaps. I'm sure this has already been discussed in these very pages...
Yeah, a team of a dozen exploding missile knives that do 160 mph, see in IR and can fly through a window and then hunt through corridors and rooms, all 4 km away.
Yeah, I've never found those super useful.
For taking off a nut that's putting up a fight (noting that nuts that have been underwater for a while aren't standard size anymore), nut splitters are probably the first port of call.
If that fails, broco.
https://youtu.be/L-9PnrZjIGo
For doing up a nut, hydrotorque. Well that's what we called it. Google turns up nothing. It's like a hydraulic jack that pulls on the rod or stud. You then do up the nut hand tight, then remove the jack. That applies exactly the pull the designer wanted.
(Apologies, was trying not to spell out the Iain Banks reference explicitly but still make it super obvious).
I've been taking an interest in RC flying lately myself. I'm interested in fixed wing, but some drones are very tempting... the Mini Mavic especially: it's sized to be legal to fly unregistered and without a licence, under the drone regulations most countries are in the process of bringing in. Under 250g is legal to fly in a public park, so long as its ground track stays 30m away from people and vehicles (in most countries, definitely all over Australia... parks are regulated at LGA level but rules will refer to the CASA guidelines, which is where the 250g thing comes from). Does good enough still resolution for the sort of things I'd be interested in photographing (basically landscapes, dawns/sunsets, sailboats and animals). Doesn't have a "follow this" feature, which might mean it doesn't justify the cost.
Anyhow (in the civil world, obviously) the RC itself is mostly digital, while FPV video is a mixture of analog and digital with the latter still expensive but gaining on the market. Cheap, light single board computers that have the video camera and FPV transmitter built in are in the "how much cheaper can we make this?" part of the market. The most complex digital RC sets use frequency hopping, but mostly to make more efficient use of spectrum. There's no crypto, and nothing you'd consider useful for counter-countermeasures. I don't know enough about jamming to comment further, or whether there's a technical solution to defeat countermeasures in the general case. I can see crypto solving some use cases but not all. You don't really need GPS for this application, but getting low latency video from the device and sending control inputs to it are both important.
Referring back to Banks, his novels express asymmetry in combat mostly in terms of the difference in ECM capability... the massively superior capability could simply take over the other side's control systems, with a bit of a scale up to parity. Of course Banks' knife missiles are also fractionally sentient, which is a whole other bunch of issues.
Hydraulic bolt tensioning tool
Oh, sorry. Banks is one of those "must read" things that I've failed to read. Sorry.
I'd tend to agree that control of the EM spectrum will be like control of the air. At least until we can build self aware attack drones that are a few 10s of grams.
As to what RC aircraft hobby to persue, I've got no idea. The limit of my knowledge is to watch a drone racer practice and think "Golly Gee"
At this point in time, it does not even matter if there is a "deal" or not, unless of course that "deal" is just a Brexit deadline extension dragged up as a deal*.
The "logistics" for doing whatever any deal will require is not ready and will not be ready for quite a while yet. Chaos is already baked in and unavoidable!
WTO-tariffs or tariffs is not even the worst part, no, the worst part is doing "the import/export paperwork" - without knowing the rules and which paperwork to be doing!
I think many logistics operators will keep their lorries out of the UK entirely until they have some certainty that they won't become stranded there. Meaning, that goods will go via ships, in containers, so UK-based trucks can take them.
I Expect a USSR-style collapse of the UK and Sattelites!
*) Except the EU cannot legally extend the Brexit transition period, and such a fudge will be vetoed by one of the 27 states preferring Clarity to more endless slog in Zero-visbility muddy water,
Whatever kind of deal "Boris" pulls off will be instantly shredded by the swivel-eyed as a "Surrender to NAZI GERMAN DICTATORSHIP", providing very little motivation for actually bothering with anything serious, on both sides,
The EU could maybe live with the UK leaving the club and still wanting to use the Jacuzzi, but, there is a strict policy about not relieving oneself while in the Jacuzzi ... and the EU does not trust that the UK is not planning to do exactly that, given the "internal markets bill" ... thus there will need to be enforcement,
Which conflicts with the swivel-eyed's idea of Sovereignty, which is: "I can do whatever I like and you shall do whatever I tell you to, because British & Empire"!
Maybe, but he told me the story in 1992 or thereabouts; the car (a 450SL iirc) maybe have been ten years old then..
Sounds more like my fun. Some of the other suggestions seem to involved being able to have some access to the troubled bolts and nuts.
One of the memories seared into my brain is helping my neighbor swap a starter on their car one February when it was a bit below freezing, after dark, and without the car being on a lift. You couldn't see the bolt heads at the same time was when working. You could sort of see them, get a mental image, then by feel work the tools into positions around the frame and exhaust pipe. While gradually going numb from the cold.
Small-drone ( Not-quite "knife" ) missiles: Chicken wire shields.
fjansen You may, unfortunately, be correct. Even IF we geta "deal" of some sort, it's going to be painful for paperwork reasons mentioned. As for the swivel-eyed - you do realise that they refer to the EU as the "EUSSR" & "der vierte Reich" in almost the same breath? The complete logic-&-reality fail is amazing. It's like the word "socialism" in the US - meaning anything that involves helping other people? I know that at least two of the rail freight operators are semi-prepared for increased loadings from ports away from Dover - if of course, our underspent rail infrastructure can take it. { There are four major container ports on the E coast, which have only diesel rail traction: Thames Gateway, Felixstowe, Immingham & Hull ) Because the DafT ( Department for Transport, DfT, also known as "the ministry of Roads" ) have been backing ever-heavier lorries for the past 60 years.
Quote from the "Indy" - I wonder if this is correct? ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ But Johnson is nevertheless in a strong position from which to sell out. Provided the EU gives him something that he can present as a negotiating triumph, most of his MPs will focus on that and ignore whatever concessions he has made. He could give the EU all our fish in perpetuity and a level playing field made of gold, but as long as he can stand up in the Commons and declare that he has secured a good deal for Britain and beaten off some unreasonable demand that the EU never actually made, he will get away with it. All he needs is a bit of choreography from the other side and he will tell his side that he has won the most famous victory since Agincourt – or some other tasteless reference to Anglo-continental slaughter in ages past – and they are so desperate to believe him that it will be true in their eyes. But, the solid facts of this negotiation are that it is very much in the interest of both sides to reach a deal, and that there are no genuine obstacles to doing so. But it is hard to be sure when there are such levels of fantasy involved.
Oh, I know what I'm doing (in the sense that I have a coherent plan, not that I'm competent or anything crazy like that). I'm still in the "practice with a simulator so the first time you try a split S in a real plane you don't fly straight into the ground" stage. Plus, I already have more hobbies than most people, while doing non trivial house renovations and starting a PhD. TBH it's more about getting me out of the house for a bit without feeling like having to achieve anything serious (unless you count "not trashing a(nother) plane"* as a serious achievement).
gasdive @ 265
Personally, I would not call Banks a "must-read" SF author. He's a good writer, an honest one (or was since he died in 2013) to be sure. But his "Culture" series isn't really SF.
I read his first four science fiction novels and each time I felt a big emptiness at the end. It was because the plot did not have much to do with classic science fiction. There were robots, supermen, FTL ships, etc., but they could have been replaced with cowboys and indians and magic beads.
Oh, that's interesting.
I like SF when it makes me wonder about the world. Or learn something important. Rollicking good tales don't do much for me.
"should clarify that I haven't even trashed one plane. Yet"
Better than me. Well, not trashed completely, but needed repairs before I could fly it again.
That SORT of tool is called a "podger" in the UK but it wouldn't be allowed on a building site for reasons. The spike is used to lever two slightly misaligned scaffolding parts together by inserting it through two adjacent holes and heaving until the holes line up and a connector can be pushed through.
Scaff bolts are all an industry standard size though, 7/16 Whitworth. A modern 21mm metric spanner will fit well enough on standard scaff nuts given tolerances and such but an adjustable spanner is dangerous as it can slip and hurt people's hands given its slackness of fit so no permitto on site.
You mean a monkey wrench isn't allowed on UK building sites??!!
I think that is from someone thinking that the swivel-eyed ones are just vain, stupid and without any attention span whatever, while conveniently ignoring their considerate cunning and fevered energy in sniffing out any kind of percieved sell-out to the UNELECTED NAZI-EUSSR as The Daily Mail or The SUN would diplomatically put it, safe in the conviction that only UK-based readers ever read the UK papers ...
The EU-side must know by now that making any kind of concession, even if it is "just" some bon-mots referring to the past glories of The Empire, will only re-energise the Brexiteers and make them demand more concessions because it will be The Proof that "They needs us more than we need them!".
I may be going a bit overboard here, but, I think that the only way "Boris" will ever get a deal though his Brexiteer parliament is to throw at least all of the ERG under the bus. Literally. Maybe using a vehicle with a bit more heft and road-clearance, like the Volvo A60H.
Assuming of course one can be spared for a few hours from the critical task of tarmacing over Kent!
Well, we're not past 300 yet, but it doesn't seem to have been mentioned yet.
I'm hoping (!) this is the poisoning incident I think it is. Because one pandemic is just about manageable.
https://www.dw.com/en/india-unknown-disease-leaves-1-dead-scores-hospitalized/a-55845856
Tools must be fit for purpose, specifically in the structural building trade (girder-beam construction, scaffolding etc.) and adjustable spanners just don't cut it. Damaged, defective and ill-fitting tools cause accidents and the building industry, in the UK at least, is no longer the slaughterhouse it used to be because of regulation about this sort of corner-cutting and cost-cutting dangerous shit.
Even SF fans have to abide by these rules -- the Tech teams that rig and derig stage lighting and such at big conventions wear hard hats while working with overhead beams, lamps etc. even indoors. Riggers working above a certain height all wear fall harnesses, certificated and up-to-date, no excuses. The hire companies who supply the structural girders, temporary staging etc. to conventions provide proper tooling for the job and they will back-charge if they find rounded-off nuts and fasteners when the items are returned.
Could WW1 have contributed to the Great Depression?
fajensen @ 277
A suitable bus for Boris, for ERG:
http://www.foremost.ca/foremost-mobile-equipment/wheeled-vehicles/terra-bus/
Duffy: Seems that people expect a food shortage over the winter. Anything similar happening in the UK? Any other appliances/furnishings/tools that are becoming hard to find? Does the UK have a prepper movement similar to America's? Tiny homes? Off the grid living? Self sustainable farms and gardens? Militia movements?
In order: we have a possible no-deal Brexit coming soon. You bet there are shortages.
Felixstowe -- England's main container port -- is logjammed with a backlog of containers so bad that some shipping firms are diverting container ships to Liverpool (all the way around at the opposite end of the country).
Supermarket chains are reporting shortages of white goods, notably fridge/freezers, so someone's stockpiling.
Tiny homes are normal here -- the average British dwelling is smaller than the average in Japan, about 30-40% the size of a market-equivalent dwelling in the US -- and many homes don't have any kind of garden/yard space for home-grown produce. Makes prepping difficult.
"Off-grid living" means homeless and living in a tent. Over winter, in a pandemic. Nobody who can avoid it is doing that. Yes, there are Roma travellers: the government are as usual doing their best to make their lifestyle unfeasible in a horribly racist way.
Militia movements imply a preparedness for armed violence. That would be treated as terrorism here. So no, we don't have a militia movement.
Disagree. Because Iain wasn't working at a conventional plot level, he was all about thematic issues to do with the human condition. For instance, if you read "Surface Detail" looking for a plot, you were looking in the wrong direction: it was really about the morality of afterlife-based religion (and religious entrepreneurialism).
We've had working tokamaks since the late 1950s. What we don't have, including this Chinese one, is a tokamak that has reached breakeven (fusion power out equals electrical power in) let alone the 25:1 or more gain needed to make commercial power generation feasible.
fjansen Possibly BoZo could be depending on Labour & the SNP to vote "for" a so-called "deal" ( Because it's better than no-deal ) to overcome the utter madmen ( & women )
Charlie Yup - same as "Excession" was actually about - What do you do when faced with an Out-of-Context Problem? "Use of Weapons" - what to the survivors do & how do they cope ... after THE WAR is over? Come to that "Consider Phlebas" is a different take on that same problem ( I think ) And so on
Stross @ 283
Banks wrote "Surface Detail" in 2010. I abandonned him long before that in the early 1990s.
My problem with him was that he didn't connect with any Sense of Wonder. Part of that issue was that his Culture series was classed in the SF area in the public library where I got his books. I expected a Sense of Wonder from those books.
In contrast a novel like "Gravity's Rainbow" was in the general section even though it had dashes in Mad Science. I didn't expect a Sense of Wonder so enjoyed it, partly because of the humor.
BoZo could be depending on Labour & the SNP to vote "for" a so-called "deal" ( Because it's better than no-deal ) to overcome the utter madmen ( & women )
The SNP have already said they will abstain, because they're so adamantly opposed to Brexit under all conditions -- after all, Scotland comprehensively voted against it -- that they refuse to legitimize any kind of a Brexit agreement by voting for one, but they won't vote for a no-deal Brexit either.
Labour have hinted that Starmer will whip MPs into voting to support a Johnson deal.
(I think that's a mistake and the SNP have the right of it: Brexit is a Tory project, make the Tories own it from start to finish.)
some drones are very tempting... the Mini Mavic especially
Spring for the Mini 2, unless you get a very good deal on a Mavic Mini.
Better in windy conditions — the MM is amazing for its size, but doesn't deal well with wind.
Has Occusync 2 rather than wifi — which makes a big difference in signal strength even if you never fly far enough to worry about range. I've had a few lost signal events when the Mini was visible and not that far away (100 m).
The M2 takes raw stills as well as JPEG, and 4k video. Again, makes a big difference if photography/videography is your goal.
The M2 is lighter than the MM, which gives you a few grams to add accessories (such as a filter, or a sun screen) without blowing past the 250g limit which requires registration etc. I really wish I could add a sun screen (think lens hood) to my MM — I use one on the Mavic 2 Pro all the time and really notice the flare I get on the MM.
I've never used the tracking feature on my drones. I'm not interested in selfies, and usually fly near trees and similar obstacles that make automated flight dangerous. The MM can actually track an object a bit — when doing an orbit or helix maneuver you select the centre by selecting an object visible with the camera, and the aircraft then circles that object. If the object is moving slowly it will circle a moving object.
One thing this thread has me realizing is how much the craziness of the US political situation just now has crowded out news from outside our borders. I would keep up with things around the world in general. But lately things are so crazy here that most news organizations are overflowing with US news to the extend it crowds out everything else.
In a more "normal" time Brexit would be all over our US news. Just now, it is rarely mentioned.
Hopefully things will calm down a bit after electors get locked in tomorrow and vote next Tuesday. But 2020 is always pulling another rabbit out of the hat.
Allen Thompson @ 203, on units of mass/weight/volume:
This leads me to wonder: how would kitchen and bathroom scales on the moon be calibrated?
Of course for the forseeable future anyone who makes it to the moon is going to have a very clear understanding of the difference between mass and weight. But if a lunar tourist industry ever starts up then this is going to take some explaining.
David L. @ 289
Try my favourite, BBC news:
https://www.bbc.com/news
And if you want a closer source of contagion, try CBC news:
https://www.cbc.ca/news
I know about other outlets. My point was that places like Washington Post, NY Times, msNBC, CNN, etc... have cut way back on world news due to the flood of US news.
Heck I currently know more about the laws of elections in Georgia than I do for my home state.
Of course these time do have their moments. The governor of Arizona (a true R through and through) was part of a signing of the declaration of the vote results on a live stream when his phone rang with the ring tone he had bragged about a month or few earlier. It was Trump. On the live stream he silenced his phone and set it aside.
Niala,
How accurate are the BBC now? I've heard mentions of a Tory purge.
One thing this thread has me realizing is how much the craziness of the US political situation just now has crowded out news from outside our borders.
And then there's the stuff nobody in the West is talking about, like the 250 million workers on general strike in India right now (protests against the BJP).
You'd think in any other year 3% of the world population going on strike simultaneously would get the media's undivided attention, wouldn't you?
It's not my country so I don't know how accurate the BBC is. I take everything in it with a grain of salt, like I do for The Independent, which I also read.
At least those two are not outright weird, like the Asahi Shimbun.
The governor of Arizona (a true R through and through) was part of a signing of the declaration of the vote results on a live stream when his phone rang with the ring tone he had bragged about a month or few earlier. It was Trump. On the live stream he silenced his phone and set it aside.
The sane Republicans in Arizona know they have a problem. Biden won. Both US Senators are Democrats now. Five of nine US House seats are held by Democrats. The two state legislative chambers have gotten close, and their will be no incumbent in the election for governor in 2022. Ballot initiative policies opposed by the Republicans have passed despite that in recent years. Arizona appears to be on the same path as Colorado and Nevada. If that's the case, the Republicans there have to look sane to the suburbanites.
One of the things that has happened over the last 30 years that political scientists seem to just ignore is the vast swing of the American West from Republican to Democratic.
I cannot tell you how screwed we all are, without resorting to the phrase:
"Surgeons were unable to recover the corkscrew"But...
Me, I got a job in Dublin.
Not what I wanted at the time, having my job exported - I would rather not be working in Dublin and living in London - but it's turned out that there is quite a lot of lemonade to be made out of that particular lemon.
Especially as it's sweetened by my being paid in hard currency.
Do I like profiting at the expense of others? No, but I don't dislike it enough to want to be 'in the same boat' as the Brexit hardliners and their deluded voters, who would hate me for my outward-looming attitudes...
...And hack away with axes at the hull of the boat even harder if they knew that anyone who ever asked them not to can actually swim.
And for the future of financial services in London?
The fund managers will be here for another year or two, and that'll keep some of the trade floors open, for now.
But some of those trading floors, and some of those traders, are already in Paris or Frankfurt.
Some of the vast army of IT professionals have followed them; most are now in Dublin, just like the back-office staff.
Even those who are still in London are on contracts to EU-registered legal entities, and they will move to the EU if London-based entities are shut out of the regulated and open EU markets, and cannot maintain the fiction of providing services to a trading and banking entity in the EU.
Whatever remains will, over time, degenerate into the worst of shady 'offshore' financial services, much to the approval of some in the ruling regime.
Also: there's quite a lot of banking IT and support in Glasgow, and a fair amount in Edinburgh, supporting the capital of Scotland's fund managers.
Watch that closely: the IT might turn into even cheaper offshoring than Bangalore, or it might turn out to be a convenient office in a re-accession EU country.
Either way, it's a smart bet for the American banks who have made that investment: and I may well take up the offer if my job is moved there next.
"If that's the case, the Republicans there have to look sane to the suburbanites."
BTW, the Arizona GOP Twitter account is openly calling for armed rebellion. Not just flirting with it, anymore.
One of the things that has happened over the last 30 years that political scientists seem to just ignore is the vast swing of the American West from Republican to Democratic.
Oh, I'm pretty sure the political scientists noticed. I'm also sure that the high-ranking news media are more conduits for various psyops efforts than (unfortunately) attempts at objective analysis.
I also agree with the comment that the US media noise about our two-party political system drowns out what's going on in with the other seven billion people on the planet. That is a serious problem.
news.google isn't great but it isn't bad, either. I've been seeing headlines about the mysterious illness and the strike in India for days.
white goods, notably fridge/freezers
That's a term I hadn't heard, but it relates to another one encountered in parts of Latin America, "linea blanca" or "white line" which means the same thing. I guess it goes back to early days, when they all really were white.
AFAIK the US has no such term, just "large appliances."
Brexiting Euratom gets interesting, in unexpected ways.
So lets gloss over the expected issue of who's certified as competent to receive medical isotopes or be the duty manager in a power station...
Does anyone here know anything about (say) industrial x-ray inspections?
No? Okay.
But you do know about the isotope sources used to x-ray critical components certified for use in aircraft, and the checks for cracks in (say) landing gear struts, and wing spars?
Okay, we're on the same page.
And it follows that there's a ton of documentation that certifies (say) the components of a helicopter rotor head. And certifies the testing process. And certifies the technicians and managers who conduct it and supervise it.
And, again, a certification that permits them to be recipient of these radiation sources as they cross and re-cross borders, right?
Here's one example that interests me, as someone who once aspired to be a civil engineer:
The building next door to my last-but-one office was very exciting.
As in, structurally dependent on a liine of massive diagonal girders on colossal steel bearings...
Which had to be X-rayed before the building was occupied.
Which have to be X-rayed every five to ten years, if the building is to continue in use as offices.
Which is a condition of the structural insurance.
Which is a condition of the bank loans and bonds which financed its construction, and will continue to be a condition of the financial arrangements for its resale, or refinancing.
Which is... Let's just say that investments in the very top tier of European commercial property are rather important to pension funds in Europe and the UK.
There are six X-ray rigs capable of performing that particular inspection, in the whole of the EU; each of them - and its highly-qualified crew - is booked-up years in advance and constantly travelling between the cities of Europe with a complicated 'passport' of Euratom certifications that would weigh more than the shielding and the positioning jacks, if anyone spent the next three years printing it out.
Documentation that exists, in theory, in duplicated English law after Brexit.
Documentation that can only exist in the sense of having legal effect if an equivalent nuclear treaty - a very detailed 'deal' - comes into existence in the next two weeks, and is ratified; and the legal obligations of the World's complicated web of nuclear-materials treaties means that this can not be a matter of 'photocopy the existing arrangements and make it so': there are processes and protocols to follow.
Or would be if we'd actually done it: nobody's mentioned it in my hearing if we did.
All six of those X-Ray machines will be outside the EU by December 31st, together with their operating crews, who qualify for 'highly-qualified-and-essential technician' visas throughout the EU.
Which is to say: they probably aren't UK citizens any more, one way or another.
Oh.
Feel free to tell me that this is one tiny side-issue to Brexit: you'll be right if you do.
It's just one issue among hundreds - thousands, for all I know - and the only reason I mention it, is that it's the one I know about.
It'll be one of the other ones that makes the headlines, and I doubt that you or I will see it coming.
Anyone else here a touch confused?
Read today that the uk is to withdraw the clauses in the brexit bill and the taxation bill but yet I read today that the tories took a vote on that same legislation and they almost all voted for it.
How can you withdraw a piece of legislation when your party have just voted for it?
(sorry I would link to these stories but lost them, cursed 'phone..!)
Meantime michael barnier has said that he believed a no deal split in ties with britian at the end of the year is more likely.
Hmm ... ??
ljones
WTF is wrong with Texas?
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/12/08/texas-ken-paxton-election-georgia/
Ah, yes it does. Says this guy born in 54.
...drone racer...They're unbelievably fast...I can't beehive that there's not some military type looking at these races and thinking the same. It's surely going to change what warfare looks like.
Well, yes. But jamming is a thing. I expect jamming and counter-measures is going to be quite a big thing in the near future, even compared to what it is now.
Meanwhile we are now getting opposing conflicting signals over Brexshit ... BoZo is sounding optimistic - the commission (?) are talking about going on negotiating AFTER 1/1/2021 ( Assuming ground-rules are agreed ) but Barnier is being pessimistic
The issue with mainstream news bias is not that the stuff they publish is wrong, its that their decisions about what is important enough to publish and how it is described are slanted.
For instance, how should a burning car be treated by the national news? If it is merely a car that caught fire due to a fault then it probably won't appear, unless it is the latest in a series of fires due to poor safety, in which case it might feature in the larger narrative. On the other hand if it was set on fire then the arsonists might be important. If the arsonists are on the other side of politics to the news outlet then it is more likely to be featured, less so if they are on the same side. Similar considerations will apply to the skin colour of both arsonists and victim.
When reporting an event it is possible to adopt a neutral point of view, although even then many mainstream outlets prefer not to. For instance, do you describe the people who set the car on fire as "rioters" or "demonstrators"? Do you describe how the rest of the demonstration was peaceful?
However even with the best will in the world, the selection of events to report cannot be neutral (at least, AFAICT). There are literally billions of things happening to people every day, but only room for a dozen or so on a news programme. So every news outlet has to have a framework for deciding the relative importance of events. That framework cannot avoid embodying a view of how the world works, and another name for a world-view is a political position.
So I evaluate news outlets in two ways. First, how do they slant stories? When do they talk about "rioters" and when do they say "demonstrators"? Second, which stories do they report on. To try to evaluate this I read at least the headlines from as wide a range of political positions as possible, including some on the far left and some on the far libertarian. This gives me (I think) a reasonable understanding of the consensus view of what is important and also a fair chance of picking up on interesting things that haven't made it into the consensus yet (e.g. I first heard of the Taliban in an article in The Economist some time in the early to mid 90s).
So based on that I regard the BBC as pretty reliable at picking up the stuff that is generally viewed as important, apart from a regrettable tendency to lead with Buckingham Palace press releases. Its also careful about neutral POV when it does report; "rioters" means only those people throwing petrol bombs or engaged in widespread violence or destruction, and it always distinguishes between things it can confirm as facts and things reported as fact by other people.
WTF is wrong with Texas?
I take it you haven't followed Paxton's years of over-the-top right wing nuttiness. This is pretty typical for him.
We were just wondering how the Texas AG has standing to file such a suit, but maybe that's not the point.
The Bullingdon club is nothing to do with being an aristocrat. It's to do with being male, at Oxford, and having gone to one of a small set of 'right' schools. In other words, it's to do with your parents having enough money to have sent you to one of these schools and then to Oxford, and being male.
It may be that some aristocrats belong to it, but that's incidental.
Nothing wrong with Texas. Just an R used to being in charge trying to stop the changes occurring across the US. And prior to the mid 70s he would have been a D in Texas.
And pulling loose threads together.
Same thing is happening everywhere STEM / higher tech jobs have been congregating. The R's have been trying to out do each other in attracting such to their states for the economic boost. They are now realizing they are imperiling their future control. States attracting auto plants and such are changing more slowly than those attracting Apple, Google, Cisco, etc. And their only playbook is to rally the rural troops to the cause. At some point they will run out of those troops and things fall apart. So are the R's in the US (and Tories in the UK) playing the roll of the Germans or Allies in 1916? In other words is there a US who can enter the war and tip the balance.
Living in the state capital of North Carolina we're ground zero for this. If you check out Wikipedia we're in the middle of the Presidential election votes for 20 years. But state and local votes in the 2 major metro areas are shifting more and more D each year. At some point the rural areas will "run out of troops" as the metro areas keep growing. And the state and local pols know it and the R's don't know how to stop it. Aside from an "Alamo" like last stand.
Ah, yes it does. Says this guy born in 54.
So it does:
While I've certainly encountered it in sense 1a/1b, I've never, ever heard it used in sense 2, nor has my wife. I wonder if 2 is a regional usage in the US -- we're from AZ and PR, respectively, and spent ~30 years in the DC area, NoVA in particular.
"Does anyone here know anything about (say) industrial x-ray inspections?"
Bingo. We have a winner. This particular one might not make the news, but it's the kind of thing that makes the news, usually when the anchor has an engineer on to explain why the big building fell over.
And you are very right that it is only one issue among thousands...
I don't understand why the British aren't in the streets.
whitroth @ 235: Must be local. I've only seen 4x8 sheets of drywall, MD, PA, IL, TX, FL.
Nope. Available (and in stock) at almost any building supply store and/or Big Box DIY store in the U.S. It's also available in 9' & 10' sheets.
Here's a thought ... in U.S. new construction, rafters, joists, wall studs are almost universally set at 16" on center (center to center). What do they do in the U.K. & E.U.?
Those of us with such tool sets think it is just plain wonderful that we get to buy twice as many sockets, wrenches, drill bits, etc... as the rest of the world to work on mechanical things.
Oh, trust me, the rest of the world get to do that too, because sometimes we have to buy stuff from the USA, and an annoyingly large fraction of the time, that means buying in Imperial sizes.
This has ... consequences.
Most of my "buying stuff from the USA" came in the form of purchasing scientific equipment for an optics lab. Optics labs means optics tables - huge, multi-tonne benches designed to hold optics steady and vibration free. The upper surface is usually a stainless sheet with a regular grid of bolt holes, typically M6 on a 25mm spacing.
And then it comes time to buy parts. And, three of the main vendors being primarily US based, their default parts are Imperial sized. So you have to be very careful to order the sane parts instead, but every now and then, you slip up, or they slip up, or the part you need is only available with Imperial dimensions, and you get Imperial parts arriving.
And then comes the problem.
Because we have Imperial tools (because some things don't come in sane dimensions), and the occasional Imperial sized bolt knocking around, and because 1/4"-20 bolts look quite a lot like M6x1 bolts to the untrained eye, you get accidents.
And when those accidents involve Masters students with a can-do attitude and a large lever, those accidents can involve destroying quite stupendously expensive apparatus. Optics tables have enough tapped holes that one or two being destroyed isn't enough to scrap them... until it's the one damn hole that you need, and it'll take a week's work rebuilding the system to work around it.
The general response to that - backed up by the PI who was paying me at the time - is that Imperial sized bolts were destroyed, with extreme prejudice, whenever discovered. That included the surplus silver-plated, hollow-bored, extreme-high-vacuum rated ones that cost double-digit euros per bolt. Each one went either straight into the mechanical workshop's recyling bin, or if after hours when the workshop was closed, to the machine vice to destroy the threads and await recyling the following morning.
It's expensive, and annoying, and as someone who has workeded with mechanical devices in the Rest of the World, sadly, we don't get to escape the continuing existence of the Imperial system. In much the same way that we don't get to escape USian politics, as has been noted on this blog in the past.
That article is terrible, and tells me nothing, other than that they turned it up for the first time.
Did it achieve fusion? If so, for how long? Did it produce more energy than they pumped in?
No answers.
Other answers are good. - Try https://news.google.com (while not logged into google), switch to desktop view if needed, expand the World news section. (It'll default to your region if you're not using a VPN that makes you appear to be elsewhere, else use the full url for your area, e.g. https://news.google.com/topstories?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en ) - Try https://www.reuters.com/theWire (Make it a habit to skim world news at least once a day.)
No matter how often you explain it to them, people from the USA simply do not seem capable of understanding that (even today) the British aristocracy and plutocracy are very different.
Self-aware attack drones.
There's an old, extremely low-budget sf movie called Dark Star. Their mission (that they've been on for 20 years) to go and blow up "unstable planets".
The self-aware bomb gets jammed in the exit....
"Teach the bomb phenomenology...."
Meanwhile we are now getting opposing conflicting signals over Brexshit ...
Which is essentially what has been happening for the last 2+ years as the UK side keep trying to spin things.
Not helped by the occasional spin from some EU country.
BoZo is sounding optimistic - the commission (?) are talking about going on negotiating AFTER 1/1/2021 ( Assuming ground-rules are agreed ) but Barnier is being pessimistic
Barnier is serving 27 masters, and thus generally doesn't seem to have been caught up in the spin game - but he is also likely more aware of the realities of trying to craft a deal that satisfies the 27 EU countries and thus not swayed by any opinion or pronouncement of 1 of the 27.
In the UK, 2400x1200 (in mm) is essentially THE commercial size. Part of that is that builders would need to cut up larger sizes to get them into many British houses! They sometimes have to cut up even 2400x1200 sheets when they could fit the whole thing if they could get it in.
There are good and sufficient reasons that the first paper I go through in the morning, every morning, is the Guardian. US URL: https://www.theguardian.com/us
I do headlines, world, and US, and have at least some idea of what's happening in the world. Note: they are explicitly left wing, yes, socialist, small "s". They are also a non-profit - they'd existed on a trust, but ask for donations these days. They've been around since 1821 (yes, that's 19th century), and used to be the Manchester Guardian (and my father read it...)
They do not, at least to me, have their biases overwhelm the five w's. And they have some of the best actual writers in any paper. (Admittedly, I adore Marinna Hyde... but never read her with anything in my mouth, as I'm likely to be pounding the desk laughing.)
IMO, a ploy. I see he's asserting the right to go straight to the Supreme Court; I expect them, biased as they are, to say "no standing, bye, don't let the door hit you on the way out".
Damian @ 236: Of course then there's the whole argument about whether 300 microns is within tolerances, so you can just label a 1/2" spanner as 13mm and vice versa...
In my experience, you can loosen a 1/2" nut or bolt with a 13mm wrench (although there is some risk of rounding off the corners of the bolt head if it slips), but you're never going to get a 1/2" wrench to fit on to a 13mm bolt.
You cannot tighten a 1/2" bolt with a 13mm wrench, because that will slip and it will round off the corners of the bolt.
That's assuming a 13mm wrench with a 6-point socket or "box" end. If it's a 12-point socket or box wrench, it's always going to slip if you try to use it on a 1/2" nut or bolt.
Don't even get me started on the English Whitworth stuff that was on the Morris Minor my girlfriend's dad gave me back when I was in high school.
US URL: https://www.theguardian.com/us
And the UK version, https://www.theguardian.com/uk, which is also on my morning reading list.
The trick, at least from my point of view, is to even find a left wing mainstream paper (other than the Guardian). Anything owned by Murdoch ranges from "the very edge of the right" to tabloid, and beyond that is like Wile. E. Coyote, ten meters past the edge of the cliff.
If I want tabloids, I'll go to my Favorite one, the only reliable newspaper (they say so themselves), the Weekly World News.*
"What do they do in the U.K. & E.U.?"
Plywood not nearly used as much in buildings in Europe, but "plaster-board", (aka gypsum) is used a lot.
In Denmark the gypsum plates are produced from the waste-water from the scrubbers which remove SO2 from chimney-smoke on power plants and waste incinerators.
As far as I know, 2400x1200mm is the only size commonly used for all kinds of plate-materials here in Denmark.
The few places plywood is regularly used in Danish buildings is as "class-A" "under-roof" under roofing tiles and for the attic walk-way.
("class-A" is mandatory for "medium and high consequence" buildings, like schools etc. For normal houses people save around €200 by getting only "class-C" which is synthetic textile materials, typically with a documented lifetime of 1/10th of the tiles above it.)
Some companies have tried using longer dimension custom plywood for the attic walk-way, in order to make the walk-way part of the documented horizontal stability of cookie-cutter houses, but I think they ran into so much trouble and bad PR that they stopped again.
How to stop the shift: why do you think they're desperately looking for permanent ways to disenfranchise people? They know what the population stats say, and unless they abandon the 1%, which they'll never do, they have no choices other than to try to push the Christian Satanists (that is, the self-proclaimed "evangelical Christians") who are the voter base.
Right now is "gain control Forever, or it's all over".
Researching this a little, I find that white goods are contrasted with brown goods, another term I never heard of.
And, be it said, don't like the sound of.
timrowledge @ 248: Militia? In the UK? Well, not in the sense of gun-wanking massively overweight drunk reichwing nutjobs. I wouldn’t be surprised if the average football hoolie gang could take any of them with just bricks, scarves and sheer brute violence.
FWIW, the radical gun-nut mobs in the U.S. who call themselves a militia are NOT in actuality. "Too many chiefs and no Indians."
"You'd think in any other year 3% of the world population going on strike simultaneously would get the media's undivided attention, wouldn't you?"
Would you? They're in India. Seems to me we only ever hear 2 kinds of things about India:
1) Nuclear Neighbours Yelling And Screaming At Each Other, ep. 39741
2) Oh look some poor foreign people have been earthquaked, send them all your old sweaters and milk bottle tops and make yourself feel good about it.
(Once upon a time we also got (3) Indira Gandhi, but she's dead now.)
Heteromeles @ 253: I'm quite sure they're looking at guided, armed drones. It's been a thing since before the kamikaze.
The trouble isn't guiding the drones, it's dealing with the countermeasures. I think we had a thread on this some time ago, about how ubiquitous countermeasures for guidance, GPS, optical and emissions fooling scenery, and such are likely to become standard defenses around hardened targets.
We also had a quite long thread about "slaughterbots" introduced, IIRC, by Charlie himself. "Hardened targets" aren't the ones that need to worry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlO2gcs1YvM
If I want tabloids
A phenomenon that I've only recently become aware of is that there are tabloids in other parts of the world that don't totally conform to the US/UK stereotype. They definitely cater to the tabloid sensitivities of crime, human tragedy, disasters etc, but do it in a way that covers actual news and only has a sprinkling of UFOs and other stuff. Well, mostly.
E.g., https://www.critica.com.pa/
Looks like I triggered a pedant-storm. My mistake.
Of course gyprock and plywood come in 4'x10' and 4'x(y') sizes. The point was not that they are available in 4'x8' sheets, the point was that in a metric country they are available in Imperial measurements (and no other).
Similarly when I am running stringers for a wall I go to 16" or (sometimes) 12" spacing. Part of that is so that I can fit 4'x(y') gyprock sheets or plywood onto them, but also it is reflected in the building code.
Concrete is ordered and poured in cubic yards, soil and fill are sold similarly.
Humans are still measured in feet and pounds - I know few adult Canadians that could quickly tell me their height in meters or their weight in kilos. Casual usage still leans heavily to the Imperial system, aside from driving speeds.
Grocery stores like to play head games with the two systems. Pork chops are sold by the pound, right next to fish sold at prices per 100g, causing me to do a rough conversion in my head ($/100g * 4.5). Rule of thumb - prices per 100g are generally much higher per unit and used to disguise that fact.
Pigeon @331. We're starting to see news about the strike in India, largely because of some large protests in solidarity here by South Asian farmers. A quarter of a billion people striking - you'd think that would be top of the headlines for anyone, but of course strikers are just a hair away from 'leftist rioters' and thus won't get any attention until things start to burn.
Oooooh! One of my very favorite movies. They showed it at my middle school the same year Star Wars came out, and I loved it. Loved it hard. Everyone else, having seen Star Wars, hated it, because they were clueless kids who had no experience of science fiction, and I got a ton of shit over it, to the point where the whole business made it into my school's annual - "Remember when _ ___ liked Dark Star better than Star Wars?"
But I'll stand by it. Dark Star is by far the better, more interesting movie! (And I won't spoil the climax for the poor, benighted ones who have not yet seen the film.)
"How accurate are the BBC now?"
The written articles on their website aren't too bad, although it's probably easier to mentally auto-correct them living here and being used to it, and there's a reasonable amount of information in the longer ones.
The TV news is fucking awful. You get maybe 3 items before it degenerates into sport and fluffy dogs, with about 2 sentences of actual content on each one after all the padding, reported in such a way as to imply that whatever the Tories are doing is the only possible option that would be available to anyone in the circumstances and that people who want to stay in the EU don't exist.
Oh, and they have forgotten what chroma-key is for, so when someone is talking about what went on in Parliament, instead of inserting a Houses of Parliament background electronically, they have the poor sod actually standing outside the Houses of Parliament in the dark and the pissing rain, yelling at the camera over the roar of traffic while the wind thunders in the microphone so you can only hear one word in three. Which is daft, and shit.
Er, true (modern) Imperial? 4' x 8' being 1219.2mm x 2438.4mm? Imperial as it was in the days of Empire was roughly 1219.19788mm x 2438.39577mm.
In the UK, when we converted almost all of our units, such people created the 'metric foot', being 30cm rather than 30.48cm. Your location created one of 30.5cm. It's still not really Imperial units.
No spoilers but I would like to add that Dark Star features the finest alien in the history of cinema.
Elderly Cynic @ 337
What do you mean by "It's still not really Imperial units."
What would be?
Oh I do use Google News when at my desk. And Apple news when stuck with 5 to 10 minutes of wait and out and about.
Plus I do FoxNews at times to see just how many details they have left out of a story. You know things are crazy when FoxNews is talking about the lawsuits about the elections getting kicked out and they are quoting the judges as saying "shut up and go away".
No matter how often you explain it to them, people from the USA simply do not seem capable of understanding that (even today) the British aristocracy and plutocracy are very different.
We could say similar about the European and UK understanding of things here.
At times I feel like we're playing a role in the book "Mote in God's Eye" where the layers of a civilization are totally missed by each side.
Yes... see above discussion with Moz re: 2440x1220 sheets, which is definitely how marine ply comes in Oz. I can't say for sure whether it's really 2440 or actually 2438.4mm because tolerances seems to be larger than that difference (I just measured my desk, which I made 20 years ago with a single sheet of ply cut down to 900mm width, but full length, and it's actually closer to 2450, although it would have been 2440 nominal). The heaviest standard thickness in the local hardware chain is 18mm, though commercial-only suppliers would carry up to a 25mm. Construction/building ply comes in 2400x1200.
They sometimes have to cut up even 2400x1200 sheets when they could fit the whole thing if they could get it in.
In remodeling and new construction they many times leave a 2nd and if needed 3rd floor window out until they use a fork truck crane setup to push it into the upper floors. Most BUILDER supply houses have such a delivery systems. But for the bigger sizes single people mostly can't carry it.
When I redid a couple of bedrooms 10 years ago unloading the double sheets (how they are made and shipped) almost wiped me out and that was with a helper. I was in my mid 50s and using muscles that thought retirement had arrived. 80 pounds I think.
There are good and sufficient reasons that the first paper I go through in the morning, every morning, is the Guardian.
I read a lot of the Guardian via Apple News. but on my phone the begging for money ads take up an annoying amount of screen space.
Ahem: I've cancelled my subscription to the Guardian in the past couple of months.
Proximate causes:
a) Grotesque levels of transphobia, continuing after the most egregious editorial writer responsible flounced (and surfaced spewing the same poison at the Spectator and Telegraph)
b) Coverage of Scottish politics has a ridiculous amount of anti-SNP venom, which leaks through into their actual selection of political news pieces to cover. (For example: in a week that has an Ipsos/MORI poll showing the SNP tracking to win 55% of the popular vote with all-time record levels of public approval, they run a hit piece disguised as "news" talking up internal opposition to Nicola Sturgeon -- the party leader and First Minister -- to spin it as Sturgeon being in deep trouble. Which is simply not true.)
I can maybe ignore the editorial bullshit (although I find transphobia utterly repugnant: it's an eliminationist creed recycling anti-gay talking points from the 1980s with a new target group), but I can't forgive a newspaper for spinning straight-up political propaganda as "news".
If you don't know how to search for '$StatedMeasure as $DesiredMeasure' and evaluating the multiple results nearly all to tools giving the same answer, you aren't making full use of the modern world :-)
Agreed. The very finest of pre-CGI effects.
they had a front page story of "NASA Finds Alien Baby in Crashed UFO"... and in an inset block, "Unidentified Farm Couple Waiting To Adopt"?
MIB explained all of that.
Ahem: The Byline Times is worth a look.
In Denmark the gypsum plates are produced from the waste-water from the scrubbers which remove SO2 from chimney-smoke on power plants and waste incinerators.
Try the world. My son in law was a quality engineer at one for 5 years. Next to a huge power plant out in the middle of nowhere. Hour and 15 to hour and 45 minute commute depending on where he lived. The parent company (French) had plants all over the world. All next to coal fired power plants.[1]
About the time he was leaving the need to run the power plant full time was going away and they had mostly chewed through the scrubber output for feed stock and were having to cut production of drywall.
[1] One side effect of getting rid of coal for power is that drywall will cost more.
Allen Thomson @ 301:
That's a term I hadn't heard, but it relates to another one encountered in parts of Latin America, "linea blanca" or "white line" which means the same thing. I guess it goes back to early days, when they all really were white.
AFAIK the US has no such term, just "large appliances."
I've heard it often enough. Maybe not used as much now as it was back when all stoves & refrigerators & freezers & washing machines & clothes dryers were only available in a white enamel finish.
Nowadays you see ads for "Major Appliances Sales", but when I was younger they were advertised as "White Goods Sales", which everyone knew meant kitchen appliances (even washers & dryers which were usually located right off of the kitchen if they weren't in the kitchen itself).
Use faded out in the U.S. about the time all the manufacturing jobs were being off-shored?
My most recent encounter with the term was while trying to find out where Wake County had moved the site for disposing of old kitchen appliances when I wanted to get rid of old, old chest freezer and a refrigerator that was too old for Habitat to take. The refrigerator worked Ok, but it was more than 10 years old so Habitat wouldn't take it. The chest freezer was so old it was not repairable.
They still list "white goods" on the Wake County Waste & Recycling web site.
Ones derived from the Imperial Standard Yard (stick) and Imperial Standard Pound (lump of metal). Yes, they really existed and were used as primary sources, in the same way that the metric equivalents were used until recently (when those were replaced by references to physical constants). They were replaced by re3ferences to metric units within my time at school.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Geo4/5/74/contents/enacted
Seems to me we only ever hear 2 kinds of things about India:
Lately news about the anti cross religious marriage law has broken through.
Concrete is ordered and poured in cubic yards, soil and fill are sold similarly
I wish. Gravel and landscaping stone is sold by weight in the US. Quick how many pounds of crush and run to cover that parking spot? Where did it come from (what is the ratio of sand, small, and larger rock) and has it rained lately?
For us DIY folks they have a scale on the front loader when you go to pick some up.
he heaviest standard thickness in the local hardware chain is 18mm, though commercial-only suppliers would carry up to a 25mm.
I wonder if it is the same thing we call 1" and 5/8".
Although for the last 5 to 10 years it is really 31/32" and 19/32" which gets real close to the mm sizes and now I think that that little bit of shrinkage allows them to interchange mm and inch thicknesses.
Nuts. You'd think after 46 years I could watch it on a service I already pay for without more money. Maybe I'll spring $2. $4 for HD.
Allen Thomson @ 312:
So it does:While I've certainly encountered it in sense 1a/1b, I've never, ever heard it used in sense 2, nor has my wife. I wonder if 2 is a regional usage in the US -- we're from AZ and PR, respectively, and spent ~30 years in the DC area, NoVA in particular.
Instead of regional, I'd say it's archaic, because a lot more of those appliances were sold in non-white enamel finishes in the last 3-4 decades.
Oddly enough, I had forgotten the term was also used for 1a/1b ... probably because I don't remember it being expressed quite that way. All of the department stores around here used to have a "January White Sale" for bed linens & bath towels, etc, but the "White Goods Sales" on appliances were usually later in the summer (July as kind of a prelude to the "Back-to-School" sales in August).
Elderly Cynic @ 352
In my school we were taught both the FSS (Foot, Second, Slug) system and the MKSA (Meter, Kilometer, Second, Ampere) system at the same time and the word "imperial" was never used.
We also never heard of an act on this in the quinto anno of the reign of George IV.
it's the kind of thing that makes the news, usually when the anchor has an engineer on to explain why the big building fell over.
But from a political perspective what's important is that the building won't fall over this year. Or next year.
So they can paper over the inspection problem with waivers and waffle, leaving the real problem to the next sucker.
And you are very right that it is only one issue among thousands...
Think of it as a game of pass the parcel where wach person adds a layer rather than taking one away. If you keep going someone is definitely going to get crushed by the giant ball of paperwork... but it's probably not going to be you. Hopefully.
Many British are in the streets, nazi armbands and all.
I have no idea what a "slug" is. Some kind of obsolete unit of weight measurement?
(Wasn't taught to me at school at any time, and I'm 56 and from the UK. Almost everything after age 8 was metric, SI units. No idea where you get "MKSA" from, that's no nomenclature system I've ever heard of.)
Ground.news is pretty good. They rate news stories by how much they're reported in left or right sources, and have a blindspot listing for stories you're likely to miss if you're only using right or left sources. Centered on the US, but includes world news.
Atropos @ 315:
Oh, trust me, the rest of the world get to do that too, because sometimes we have to buy stuff from the USA, and an annoyingly large fraction of the time, that means buying in Imperial sizes.
If it's coming from the U.S., it's not "Imperial sizes", it's SAE Standard (unless it's specifically being made for export to somewhere that "Imperial sizes" are required).
I'd always heard of a slug as the round bit of metal that got punched out to allow wiring or conduit into a metal box.
slug
A unit of mass which allows feet and seconds to work as a unified measurement system. Nearly 50 years ago we spend a couple of hours on it so if it came up again we'd know. CGS or MKS is much better. And saner.
I have come across mks (45 year old brit). Pre SI metric measurement system that saw a lot of use in the 50s and 60s. My parents used it.
Meters Kilograms Seconds. Conversion constants to/from SI tends to involve powers of 10.
I listen to the BBC somewhat and mostly like it, but my impression is that it does more to cover the UK and what used to be in the empire than the rest of the world. Is that fair?
Elderly Cynic @ 321: In the UK, 2400x1200 (in mm) is essentially THE commercial size. Part of that is that builders would need to cut up larger sizes to get them into many British houses! They sometimes have to cut up even 2400x1200 sheets when they could fit the whole thing if they could get it in.
~ 0.75 inch narrower & 1.5 inch shorter than U.S. panels.
What about the stud & joist spacing (center to center)?
"slug"
I far too frequently encounter the "slug" - normally making holes in the brassicas or strawberries in the veggie garden. (Occasionally also referring to a lazy teenager). But neither are not a standardised size...
I have heard the term "slugged out" to mean a worn out bearing.
Beaware of local idioms...
the point was that in a metric country they are available in Imperial measurements (and no other)
As has been pointed out, that's not true in Australia or Aotearoa. Unless you are claiming that 47 61/247" x 23 311/497" is a standard imperial size. Because that's the size I can get in any local timber supplier. Also commonly 106 196/657" x 23 311/497" for flooring, some sizes of drywall and plywood.
Yes, we get some plywood in imperial sizes, but we get a lot more in metric. https://www.bunnings.com.au/our-range/building-hardware/building-boards/structural-plywood?page=1&facets=CategoryIdPath%3Df943e415-a8e8-41db-abee-d727b68aa285&sort=BoostOrder&pageSize=60
600 on centres is common, 400 for some applications. And universally dimensions are in millimetres, unless that's obviously silly and they're in metres. So if a bit of wood is listed as a 9.5 length of 90x45 ... it's 10 yards of 4"x2", varying with the weather :)
I have no idea what a "slug" is. Some kind of obsolete unit of weight measurement?
Mass. Meant to allow American (and British?) engineers to avoid confusing pounds-weight with pounds-mass. I encountered it briefly and walked away quickly.
Slug definitions
Of the top of my head.
metal knockouts for things like electrical panels that i'm guessing is related to the next item.
a fake coin for use in vending machines or subway systems
a small creature that will send my wife and daughter screaming away. a snail without a shell. we get ones around here when it rains a lot and they start drowning that come out onto the side walk. step on one and it's slip city. 4cm or so long.
an obscure unit of mass in a rarely used measurement system.
Reading about lumber sizes you can understand why Apple drove the people nuts who were building their currently mostly empty new HQ. Normal construction practice is 1/8" or so for trim work. (Caulk and wood filler are your friend.) They wanted 1/32 or less.
Actually fired the first general management firm 1/2 way through the build as they would not work at that tolerance.
And now for something completely different.
Navy helicopter pilot will become the FIRST WOMAN to command a US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier
Here's a UK version of the story.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9028631/A-woman-command-nuclear-powered-aircraft-carrier-time-Navy-history.html
Was the title of this post a hidden reference to the Beatles' song?
Charlie Stross @360
To quote from the Wikipedia article on Imperial units:
The slug, a unit associated with imperial and US customary systems, is a mass that accelerates by 1 ft/s2 when a force of one pound (lbf) is exerted on it
F = ma (Newton's second law)
1 lbf = 1 slug × 1 ft/s2 (as defined above)
1 lbf = 1 lb × g/gc (by definition of the pound force)
g ≈ 32.17404856 ft/s2
∴ 1 slug ≈ 32.17404856 pounds
Errolwi @ 346: If you don't know how to search for '$StatedMeasure as $DesiredMeasure' and evaluating the multiple results nearly all to tools giving the same answer, you aren't making full use of the modern world :-)
If you mean convert mm to inches or inches to mm, I don't even have to search, I've got the on-line converters bookmarked. I also know how to make standard U.S. letter paper fit into an A4 printer & vice versa ... vice versa is easier because you don't have to trim the edges of the paper to make it fit.
With modern word processor programs and modern printers sold in the U.S., you don't have to do anything but tell it which paper size you're using & it will flow automagically.
There may be a lot of the "modern world" I'm still missing though. But, OTOH, I don't miss them all that much, IYKWIM.
David @ 348:
MIB explained all of that.
Duh! Superman.
Troutwaxer @ 363: 'd always heard of a slug as the round bit of metal that got punched out to allow wiring or conduit into a metal box.
I've also heard it used for the little round metal wafer that coins are stamped out of.
Duh! Superman.
Surely you meant "O Superman"?
JBS @377 If you mean convert mm to inches or inches to mm, I don't even have to search
This is in the context of recipes, so linear distance probably only relevant for tin size, and the level of precision required is low. Multiple traps in practice in other contexts!
If it's coming from the U.S., it's not "Imperial sizes", it's SAE Standard
A couple of decades ago I did a bunch of writing for Steve Jackson Games. Their writers' guidelines insisted that all measurements be given in Imperial units when they mean American Standard units. (Often but not always the same.)
I remarked that either they were using the wring term or declaring that America was an imperial power. They were not impressed.
I still find that a lot of Americans think they use Imperial units…
an obscure unit of mass in a rarely used measurement system
IIRC a pound of force will accelerate one slug at one foot per second squared…
linear distance probably only relevant for tin size
Back in the 80s I had a recipe book that used measurements like "#2 tin of corn".
Pretty useless, as I had no idea what the tin sizes were and they didn't translate into normal volumes.
How about the version from the Simpson, D'oh Superman?
I've always liked <"Superman's Song" by Crash Test Dummies:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EeyhKWjQaKk
That was "Superman's Song" by Crash Test Dummies. No idea why that didn't show up.
Oh, and Poundal!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poundal
I have no personal experience with housing that uses such boards, except for one extension to our house (which would have been unusual, because of its need to fit on).
Yes (although it's more familiar to me by way of the Thompson Twins and other cover versions).
The "poundal" is the old "Imperial" equivalent of the "Newton" - if you see what I mean. See also Rbt Prior. - but do not confuse with the "slug" - a unit of - Mass: the linked wiki page on the "poundal" explains very well, actually. Lets just not get into degrees Rankine, please? "mks" is what we STILL USE - it's jsut that the name has changed. ( To "SI" )
Interesting. MKS (or MKSA) is metre-kilogram-second, and is what you know as metric, as Niala says. In my UK secondary school physics, I was taught it as primary units, but also learnt about CGS (centimetre-gram-second) and the Imperial system. Poundalls were preferred to slugs as the unit of force in the latter, incidentally. I can no longer remember the difference between rationalised and unrationalised MKS, but it was something electromagnetic. The ability to convert between systems was required knowledge. I am almost 73.
I was misremembering the meaning of slug, and the spelling of poundal! It's well over half a century ago now.
Greg Tingey @ 391
"Lets just not get into degrees Rankine, please?"
Why not? I remember that it was in one of the exams and it was an easy question, even if we did all the conversion calculations by hand, with paper and pen. We were introduced to slide rules in another year only.
Yeah. The rest of the day - I said I look at the Guardian first thing - I'm on google news. Which used to throw in articles from the Scotsman and the Hindustani and the Asia Straits Times, but not in like 10 years. A month or two ago, they started this weird crap where it stops after headlines and US, and I reload, and reload, and finally get the rest.
An old recipe, that is it dated from about the 16th century, I once encountered for a pie of some sort included the precise measurement 'a sufficiency of nutmeg'. I have since appropriated 'sufficiency' and used it mercilessly on occasion.
At the lowest budget, at least....
I'll take a look at it. Thanks.
Or perhaps, mine - it's that time of the year when much of the planet laments their favorite alien who's missing....
No El, no El Where is the son of Laura and Jor-El?
No, the farm couple was obviously the Kents.
I really don't understand this fetish for precise measurements for a great deal of cooking and I am perfectly happy with older recipes that just give indicative amounts. Yes, there ARE recipes where exact amounts matter, but there are lots where they don't - in some cases, they can even be harmful, and it is much better to do it by feel and/or taste.
It helps to have useful suggestions. And sadly a lot of modern recipes assume the exact amounts rather than suggesting how things should look or feel. "knead in butter until mix is smooth and firm" is fine, "add 27 flyhooves of butter and knead" ... sure, let me just go find my unicorn foot.
I have found the same, albeit approaching the matter from the opposite end of the scale of familiarity. It doesn't dawn on me until it's too late that I've committed myself to doing something that is supposed to require weighing and measuring out specific quantities of ingredients while not actually having any apparatus for making any of those measurements. So if the relative quantities permit I make an informed guess by reference to the nominal quantity of the ingredient in its container when it was full, and if they don't I just make an uninformed guess. It seems to work.
A bullet.
A row of cast type, or other metallic congealment of similar size.
A small ballast weight.
A punch, as in "ow".
A non-dissipative component whose function is to alter the natural frequency of a system so that its amplitude/phase response is less inconvenient.
A shot of hard liquor.
A group for users of Linux in some place that begins with S.
...As for the molluscan variety, I used to get giant huge green ones crawling up the drain pipe from the kitchen sink, through the water in the U-bend and out into the sink through the overflow. Usually in families. I showed one to the cat once but she wasn't interested. However, it seemed to put the shits up the whole community and they stopped coming in after that.
The second is what I grew up with. Dad set type as a part-time job while he was in college. And the dad next door when I was a little older ran a Linotype for the local weekly newspaper. At some point I had forgotten about Dad's college job, until I whined that Microsoft Word didn't have anything that looked like a floating display where he could hear me, and I got a number of stories about setting floating displays for a university press.
'a sufficiency of nutmeg'
Bester. Quant suff.
Would you? They're in India. Seems to me we only ever hear 2 kinds of things about India:
You forgot about Yoga, tech support, air pollution, and creeping totalitarianism. But that's okay, because those don't get much news either, with the Orangey Shitflinger sucking da bandwidth.
Most very old recipes are aides-memoires. You have done this before, under supervision, but now you are on your own you want something to remind you that you need nutmeg, and it goes in at this point. If you still cannot work out how much is sufficient, then you are not yet ready to work unsupervised.
Modern recipes, OTOH, are intended to show you how do do something you have never made before, with no one to check on you. For that, reasonably accurate quantities are needed. Don't I know it.
JHomes
I partially agree, with a change that someone commented on in a cookbook. The old recipes were more often the things that people didn't make often enough to memorize. The example used in this cookbook were holiday foods that were made only once a year, for weddings, funerals, etc. Everyday preps were not memorized.
That said, recipes aren't new. Here's a Mughal recipe for a curry predecessor, from Sen's Curry: A Global History
Abul Fazl’s Ingredients for Dopiaza as served at Akbar’s court (c. 1600)
10 seers* meat that is middling fat 2 seers ghee [clarified butter] 2 seers onions ¼ seer salt 1 seer fresh pepper 1 dam** each of cumin seed, coriander seed, cardamoms and cloves 2 dams pepper
1 seer = 1 kg *1 dam = ~3g
No preparation instructions. I like the 10 kilos of meat that is middling fat. That's a nice topic of discussion with your local butcher. Presumably that meat is not pork or kangaroo, but beyond that...?
"This has ... consequences."
Yeah, more consequences than just causing weeks of work. Imperial has contaminated all sorts of unlikely places. Pipe threads being the worst. Even some DIN fittings are actually British Standard Pipe. Which is a variation on Whitworth, but named as metric. Add to that the American "National Pipe" and actual metric, all with different threadforms and different tapers for the tapered versions. The result is that it's possible to screw a cylinder valve into a cylinder that seals and holds pressure but which sometimes fails at working pressure, which means you get 500g brass valves flying about at hundreds of metres per second.
Here's one example. (In the article it's implied that you'd have to be a bit thick to make this mistake, but there were some cylinders sold in Australia where the importer had bought cylinders from one source and valves from another and they had different threads. I actually bought two...)
https://www.hse.gov.uk/diving/cylinder-threads.htm
Pipe threads being the worst.
We recently bought a new place (population has gone up 50% in 20 years, the old places are full). PEX and PVC, lots of glue.
Exactly. A lot of folks, myself included, never got taught by their mom how to cook. You have no idea how many times I've heard someone say "I can't cook". At that point, I tell them get a good cookbook (Joy of Cooking, Good Mousekeeping, er, Housekeeping, Fanny Farmer. Then, to paraphrase the Volkswagon Repair Manual from the seventies (for the complete idiot, no relation to the series), read the recipe, gather the ingredients, FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS. MEASURE EXACTLY, not "about", TIME EXACTLY.
Then, after they've made that recipe half a dozen times, they can start experimenting. Once they've done a dozen or more recipes half a dozen times, then they can start experimenting, and coming up with their own recipes.
But they need to learn how to cook, first.
It’s still around: in the course of working on some bits & bobs for the SLS I’ve encountered more than one program document with temperatures in Rankine.
Another potential problem for the UK:
Turns out China is stimulating its pandemic economy with infrastructure. Which means a demand for steel. But steel production is down, driving up the cost of steal and thus scrap steel.
It also turns out that cargo ships have a lot of steel, and demand for cargo ships has taken a hit. Cargo shipping has thin margins, and that has lead to a lot of older, inefficient cargo ships being only marginally cost effective before the pandemic.
Some shipping companies have predicted a slow recovery and decided now is a time to scrap some of their older stock, while scrap prices are good.
If the world economic recovery is faster than expected, there will be a ship shortage and British exports will face increased shipping costs. Double the hit for exporters who also import the raw materials.
There's this tabletop roleplaying game called Traveller. It has many versions, but most of them (excluding the GURPS version, sadly) use SI measurements for most of the stuff.
Now, once on the Traveller Mailing List, somebody was writing a software module for some things in it. There's like planet generation and other things which are quite math and dice heavy, which can be a fun thing. They did write their piece using Rankine as the internal (and external) temperature scale in the module.
This made it somewhat annoying as the other material was using basically Kelvins. The conversion is not that hard, obviously, but it was still so annoying that I don't think anybody really used that library, besides the author. ISTR the reason for Rankine was that the person didn't want to have anything to do with SI, but it's been like twenty years.
Pfizer's vaccine production estimates have been reported as 1.3 billion doses for 2021. That's thereabouts of 600 million people, between the requirement for two doses and the inevitable wastage. (If you thaw 20 doses and 19 people show up, that's 5% wastage. Never mind that the skip rate for the second dose won't likely be that low.)
Moderna will presumably do about as well for production.
There's at least a billion people in the "Western North Atlantic" -- US, Europe, Canada, UK -- countries that are the primary markets for these vaccines. Never mind Central and South America, some spots (Singapore!) in Asia, etc. Never mind the Chinese vaccine production (I seem to recall they've got five vaccines in various stages); let's just assume for the sake of the back of this virtual envelope we're worried about the vaccine supply into the Western North Atlantic and it's going to be about double Pfizer's stated expectations about their output.
Given that, "we can have vaccinated a billion people" happens early in Q4 if all the production targets get met. That's not a small if; the blank cheque approach has helped, but this is still the very first time anybody's done an mRNA vaccine at all, never mind at this kind of scale. Never mind the undoubtedly uneven, lumpy, and decidedly non-optimal vaccine purchase and distribution patchwork.
It takes thereabouts of sixty days from first vaccination to reach full effectiveness.
If functional immunity from vaccination lasts as long as a year (that's not yet known), general population functional immunity looks likely to take all of 2021 to achieve.
(If functional immunity lasts four months, this is a much tougher problem.)
Quick rebound from the recession isn't seeming especially likely.
Some shipping companies have predicted a slow recovery and decided now is a time to scrap some of their older stock, while scrap prices are good.
Not just cargo, a lot of cruise ships are hitting the scrapyards too.
It's not just the scrap value, it's the cost of idling the ships. These aren't like airplanes where you just wrap them and park them, they need crew on board continuously if they're ever going to be used again. They have all the combined disadvantages of a hotel, a restaurant, an amusement park, a beachfront house *and a boat. By comparison keeping a few peeps on a cargo ship is nearly free.
Although the idea of offering "ghost tours" on a ship that's just been parked somewhere wet for a year with no maintenance appeals to me. It would be positively darwinian.
Speaking of problems calls by
mothballingwaspballing craft:Keyhole wasps are notorious for building their nests in manufactured structures, and they have now been shown to do this in devices mounted to planes that are crucial for measuring airspeed during flight. Blockages in these tubes can lead to pilots misreading airspeed and have led to fatal crashes in the past.
The research was triggered by several safety incidents involving the wasps, including one in which a plane had to land again soon after departing because the pilots recognised an airspeed discrepancy, says House.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2260775-wasps-in-australia-are-endangering-planes-by-building-nests-on-them/
For what it's worth, pre-fabricated 10 GHz RADAR waveguide comes in "imperial" and "metric" options for the fixing screws. They are kinda 5 mm screws and look quite similar.
It is possible to get an "imperial" screw about 2/3 into a metric hole and with a little force, either all the way in or the thread breaks exactly flush with the mounting surface, for a nicer extraction experience.
We used to have arguments over: "Throw one standard out and stick with only one, Dammit!" or "Get rid of this screw crap and use the clamp-type fixings only instead, Dammit!"
I bet that "compomises were made" and an evaluation comittee formed, so now there would be Four Options:
The original three and one with a non-threaded hole, assembled with self-locking nut (metric or imperial), bolt (metric or imperial), 2x washers.
Offically to reuse all of those parts where the threds were stripped in a documented way, In reality to punish the whiners with more Wrong Threads!
56, Irish imperial is used solely and mainly for height, for some reason, in colloquial. "he's a good six foot" Everything else is metric. I was never taught imperial measures in school. From 1969 !!! school was metric. A slug is a common garden pest
The Imperial Slug is clearly the ruler of the gastropodian invasion fleet.
Are there apps which can look at hardware and say whether it's imperial or metric?
Yes, but my point was that it has become a fetish, and precise measurements are given for many recipes where they aren't needed, or are even harmful.
Take stews and similar soups etc. - you use what you have and adapt to taste - I dislike too much meat, so my 'meat' ones are 80% vegetable. Ditto seasonings in most dishes - herbs and spices vary, as do people's tastes. And then there's salt and other (in)tolerances.
How often have I heard the wail from recipe fetishists "The recipe SAID that it would take 45 minutes to cook, and it's overcooked / not ready!" Or bread - the salt/flour ratio is the only thing where precision is important, and it's important NOT to measure the water! Flours vary enough that the only reliable method is to do it by feel.
https://www.stevensonplumbing.co.uk/bspt.html
It's lunatic, on an Imperial scale (pun intended).
I'm not sure that's possible in a useful way. The difference between (for example) 1/4" and 6mm is .35mm (6%) so you would need a very accurate scale. There are also a plethora of different shapes so the image recognition would need to be quite flexible as well as accurate.
And that's before we get into the crossover parts, like 1/2" SAE bolts with 12mm metric hex heads on them. Or various threading standards (and the many variations outside the standards) that mean that even a close-up, scaled photo of the actual thread might result in a "meh". In the bicycle world there are roughly 6 variations on "about 10mm" axles, for example, and you get "gauges" like this so that mechanics can distinguish them: "New Wheels Manufacturing Benchtop Axle and Cone Ruler and Thread Gauge" https://www.ebay.com/itm/New-Wheels-Manufacturing-Benchtop-Axle-and-Cone-Ruler-and-Thread-Gauge-/283204152530?nma=true&si=R3kfIqXGLCuj0AB92rELa9wxWrw%253D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557
Have a browse around a bolt shop... https://www.bolt.com.au/fasteners-allen-key-products-c-1010_1994.html
Quite. I still convert temperatures in my head. On the other hand, for real Greg-bait, what's the equivalent of Kelvin or Rankine on the Reaumur scale?
"Are there apps which can look at hardware and say whether it's imperial or metric?"
I don't know; for nuts and bolts you have both types of wrenches and see which fits.
An app would be faster but might not be feasible.
Elderly Cynic @ 426
"On the other hand, for real Greg-bait, what's the equivalent of Kelvin or Rankine on the Reaumur scale?"
Zero degrees on the Réaumur scale is the equivalent to 273.15 degrees on the Kelvin scale.
Water freezes at zero in the Réaumur scale.
But I had to look it up.
I can't even remember when I last heard of Réaumur.
Even measurement isn't reliable. There's enough variation in both fittings and tools that it's not always possible to tell (for example) 1/4" from 6mm. My bugbear is small allen heads, where they are mechanically so ghastly that many bits of the right size aren't tight enough, and simply turn the hex. slot into a circle. And occasionally some won't fit in, of course.
Nancy Lebovitz @ 428
"An app would be faster but might not be feasible."
You're right, since you can have both imperial and metric together within the same computer.
IIRC - Reaumur scale appears in both Verne & Russian literature - specifically Tolstoy, I think.
Meanwhile it looks as if BoZo is going to deliberately crash us out - what have I forgotten to stock up on, that's going to run out? There will be SOMETHING, that I'm sure of .... ( note ) If it happens it's going to get very bad, very quickly - even before 1st January, as noted by the ports chaos. I heard Ian Duncan croak on the beeb this AM - he was twatting on about "sovereignty" - trouble is, he's 8 years younger than me, so he doesn't remember or care about the last time a tory PM tried that trick - Suez 1956. Oh shit. (note) Not bog-roll or flour, or butter or oils - I'm going to get more salt next time I go shopping, ditto detergent, but I'm certain I've missed something - we all will have.
One odd feature about the scrap metals market is the increasing disappearance of sunken warships which are designated war graves in various parts of the world. There's a significant amount of scrap metal on the sea floor which is shallow enough to be easily salvageable with modern cranes and divers and the like but which should be off-limits legally speaking. Unlike say, the Pearl Harbor warship memorials there's usually no monitoring or active protection of those locations.
It's normally the more valuable metals that are harvested first, brass steam fittings and bronze propellors but the steel itself is worth money if it can be lifted cheaply enough. In some cases the evidence is that the salvagers simply sweep the seabed with big electromagnets to pick up broken-off parts of the gravesite ship rather than trying to salvage-lift five thousand tonnes of unitary armour plate a hundred metres down.
That's part of its definition. What I was asking was the answer to this question: As Fahrenheit is to Rankine and Celsius to Kelvin, Reaumur is to what? Perhaps we should call it the Tingey.
Elderly Cynic @ 434
"Perhaps we should call it the Tingey."
It depends if he makes wine spirits or not from his allotment fruits or vegetables.
Are there apps which can look at hardware and say whether it's imperial or metric?
Others have mentioned the issues.
Am I the only one who is driven nuts buy server racks and all kinds of parts with bolts in metric and SAE being shipped with everything?
At first glance I just can't tell the difference. And you can put either into the wrong hole/nut and it go in for a bit before it jams.
As to how to tell them you clearly mark one of each on the shelf and for bolts hold them against each other. Same system will mesh together. Different will not. But when you are presented with a pile of them, ugh.
And nuts I just spin them onto the a "standard" bolt screw and if they don't spin down FOR WHAT EVER REASON they go into the trash.
This sounds like something a robot could do. A little expensive for the home workshop, but feasible commercially.
I think you're thinking of a data center. I get to deal with walking into a small office with maybe a 1/2 rack cabinet or at most 2 full racks. That no one has changed for 6 months or 2 years. They point me to a box of stuff and the new thing in the box and say "please install".
So when I or someone similar goes in to do some thing "on demand" this thread sorting is just a big PITA. Bringing in a robot for what will be a 2 to 8 hour job to sort out 10 screws?
Nope.
Oh, yeah. The mostly pre-threaded racks have given way to what I refer to as the "Dell" nuts (they snap into square holes where the pre-drilled holes used to be. Which is great if YOU get to set it up with a consistent thread usage. Real fun is when various people over time have installed some SAE and some metric. And asking what was used is a great way to get a blank stare back.
A bullet.
A row of cast type, or other metallic congealment of similar size.
A small ballast weight.
A punch, as in "ow".
A non-dissipative component whose function is to alter the natural frequency of a system so that its amplitude/phase response is less inconvenient.
A shot of hard liquor.
A group for users of Linux in some place that begins with S.
The use-case I've seen it most often (outside this thread) is in liquid rocketry, which is probably originally based on your 6th definition, given historical rocket fuels (and their propensity to evaporate faster than expected).
An example of its usage, courtesy of SpaceX: "A slug of this NTO was driven through a helium check valve at high speed during rapid initialization of the launch escape system, resulting in structural failure within the check valve,"
For some things, especially small fine threads, both gauges match.
This problem occasionally confounds master machinists who aren't in a hurry. It makes people absolutely fanatical about parts rack separation -- you put the metric rack as far as physically possible from the SAE rack -- in shop storage, and you will very often get "oh, no, we're an SAE shop; we don't do metric" or vice-versa.
And you can get good-value tools from the Czech Republic in SAE; they've never been, they've never even been adjacent. It's a problem.
Niala I have made v small quantities of wine from my greenhouse grapes, but the fruit-trees & bushes on the allotment are used to produce jams. [ Pear, apple, gage, aprcot, peach, red/white/pink-currant & gooseberry ) I'm going to need that stored food if things go badly this week ....
Having relatives who are trans, I will bear that in mind. From my point of view, if life is tolerable for LGBT folks, the chances of someone who isn't close enough to neurotypical look better.
On higher strength SAE & metric cap screws there are distinguishing marks, 3 or more lines, radiating from the center on an SAE fastener, or a 2 digit number on the metric, for instance, on an old "Balloon tire bomber" bicycle, the seat post bolt will have 3 lines denoting a class 5 bolt. Do not replace it with an unmarked bolt, it will be a class 1 or 2, and will fail. I have too little experience with British Imperial measurements to have an opinion, but what would the World look like if British auto manufacturers had taken to hot dip galvanizing unibodies sixty years ago?
Well, no.
German designed and, if I remember correctly, Belgian manufactured.
The founders of BioNTech are of Turkish parentage, but they're German citizens. (And BioNTech is a Societas Europaea which would make many a Brexiter's head explode if they knew).
"the increasing disappearance of sunken warships"
There is an interesting angle on this: Recycled iron is increasingly being polluted with medical isotopes which end up in the recycling stream, leading to not very, but too radioactive products.
Purchasers of raw iron products are paying attention to this now, and some have started setting so low thresholds that it matters.
I'm told that the failing batches are one reason for the "glowing performance" of the new chinese railroads :-)
Two customer segments have particularly low thresholds: Medical and Nuclear.
You do not want the chassis of your medical scanner to be radioactive, because that ruins their performance and you do not want an elevated background on your new nuclear plant, because that reduces headroom to regulations.
One obvious source of uncontaminated iron is ships which sank before august 1945.
I thought that the radioactivity in medical isotopes decayed in a few days, hence the need for just-in-time supply practices.
I don't remember what a slug (as a measurement) is either, but I remember that it was mentioned as a unit of measure in school We never used it. I think it's vaguely related to the "poundal", which I also don't quite remember, but might be the mass that produces a pound of weight under standard conditions. So a slug might be a unit of force.
Whoops, maybe I got that backwards: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slug_(unit)
So it's pretty clear that I never used it. It also wasn't on any test, and may have just been mentioned along with things like furlong.
This morning Canada signed the new trade treaty with the UK.
However, Canada still has to pass an implementation bill before any of this becomes reality. This is being rushed through but there is little hope that it will be done before the December 31st deadline.
The NDP opposition has described the whole thing as a train wreck.
Nah... for liquids in bread/pastry, I start with either the exact amount, or scant, and add. I usually have to do this, as I tend to do somewhere between one-half and one-quarter whole wheat flour.
Like I did with the two recipes of Welsh cakes I made yesterday, and shipped off today with a jar of the three-fruits marmalade I made earlier this year. "Aunt Queenie's" recipe says one beaten egg, and up to three tbsp milk. I needed two, and that on top of using 2 cups flour (one half of one cup was whole wheat).
"I thought that the radioactivity in medical isotopes decayed in a few days"
The ones you ingest or inject: Yes.
The ones in radiation treatment machinery: No.
Other sources of stray radioactive sources in metal recycling:
Cobalt 60 sources from "Cold Pasteurization" (A very USA name for blasting your food with gamma rays)
Cs-137 sources from welding inspections and oilwell-profiling
Noses & spits from retired fighter-jets (!) They are often made from light metals alloyed with Thorium for reasons of temperature.
Dark Star: One of the very few films with an (unaccredited) starring role for an IBM model 029 card punch.
That happened a good while ago. We had a lot of the snap-in (assuming you crush steel beer cans in your fingers) nuts, and that was not anywhere near "just Dell".
What started coming in back around '12 or so were the no-bolts-needed, snap in. Some with REALLY bad designs (and you're supposed to release that from the inside, with a 1U, when there are servers above and below it? But the Dell ones are nice - blue tabs you just pull facing out, and they release.
Let me note that before I retired, I was dealing with well over 100 servers....
Y'know, with everything going on, I need a slug. I'll start my spiritual journey with the True Fannish Drink, sung of by Tom Smith, 307 Ale.
The NDP opposition has described the whole thing as a train wreck.
Cheap political posturing from a party that is unlikely to ever form the government.
If it was a brand new agreement they would have a point, but given it merely extends the existing EU trade agreement to the UK there effectively is no difference - and it ignores that the delays have likely been from the UK side given the shambles that has been the UK effort on trade deals to date.
There is an interesting angle on this: Recycled iron is increasingly being polluted with medical isotopes which end up in the recycling stream, leading to not very, but too radioactive products.
Purchasers of raw iron products are paying attention to this now, and some have started setting so low thresholds that it matters.
There's a simple solution if they want low-radioactivity steel -- buy scrap metal from an American nuclear power plant site. Any scrap from such a site has to be less radioactive than 5000Bq/tonne and that includes natural radioactive elements like phosphorus. Anything over that limit, even if it's junked filing cabinets, it has to be treated as nuclear waste because it's coming off a registered nuclear site.
Regular "non-nuclear" scrap from, say, junked supertankers is OK up to 250,000 Bq/tonne, fifty times as radioactive as "official" nuclear waste without it needing to be actually treated as nuclear waste.
and that was not anywhere near "just Dell".
It was my impression that Dell came up with the square hole approach or at least made it popular.
Those snap in with clips on 2 sides were horrible for fingers even with tools. The ones I have a pile of you slide in from the center to the edge of the rack and are much easier to get off.
I have a pile because in my work racks are going away or at least shrinking in number. So I tend to generate extra bits over time.
And nuts I just spin them onto the a "standard" bolt screw and if they don't spin down FOR WHAT EVER REASON they go into the trash.
Sadly I am "that guy with the workshop" so my trash is a small collection of carefully labelled jars. If you fuck with those jars one of us is going to die, because there is hours of work required to re-sort them.
But it does mean that when someone presents a pre-1950's bicycle with clear signs of being handmade, I can often find a compatible part to match the fixed fixture. No, I have NFI what exactly the original was, but we only need one nut worth of engagement and I have found something in a jar that meets the requirement. In the worst case it's the jar labelled "medium nuts, unknown" rather than the metric/SAE/Whitworth/fine jars.
The worst is actually furniture because they have a nasty tendency to specialised fasteners in "obvious" thread types... obvious to cabinetmakers in India in the 1920's, at least. So you get "recessed captive nuts" in a peculiar shape with 2cm of internally threaded tube extending behind a dome washer... and no bolt I can find engages with more than 1cm of that thread. Without a lathe I can't even make a replacement, let alone find one online.
Sadly I am "that guy with the workshop" so my trash is a small collection of carefully labelled jars.
I have that collection. Mostly though in a few plastic tubs. Drives my wife nuts. "Why keep these when you can just go buy them?" She just doesn't understand.
Growing up my father bought a bunch of food lockers out of a cold storage setup. Large metal cabinets and drawers. One was full of any left over nut or bolt. About every 3 to 5 years we'd dump it out, pick out the obvious stuff worth sorting then put the pile back in. The main reason for the dump was to get rid of the accumulated dirt that was creating a 2" to 4" bed in the bottom of the drawer.
Errolwi @ 381:
This is in the context of recipes, so linear distance probably only relevant for tin size, and the level of precision required is low. Multiple traps in practice in other contexts!
FWIW, the same sites can do conversions between cups & liters and teaspoons and grams, etc ...
Re: ' ... but given it merely extends the existing EU trade agreement to the UK there effectively is no difference -'
Wonder if the UK will try to leverage this Canadian deal to talk other countries into doing the same. There is one item though that Canada is adamant about (data privacy) that BoJo may not be so keen on. Not sure how this would affect trade apart from routing pretty well all UK financial transactions via the US. Not sure I understand the differences among these various players on this topic esp. wrt: who is legally liable for ensuring that data are kept private, are data that are passed through another country subject to that country's gov't/police surveillance (are people/orgs being spied on), etc.
https://www.docusign.ca/blog/eu-us-privacy-shield-ends-canada-keeps-adequacy-status
get rid of the accumulated dirt that was creating a 2" to 4" bed in the bottom of the drawer.
Ah, workshop cruft. It can get through any barrier, even into "airtight" containers. But it is just airbourne dust, the stuff in my electronics in the house is house dust (skin and fabric fluff), but in the shed I can tell what I've been doing lately by the proportion of wood dust to metal dust.
One consequence is that the first step of any welding project is vacuuming the whole workshop, every nook and cranny. Because blobs of molten metal plus wood dust = way more excitement than I want.
Robert Prior @ 387: That was "Superman's Song" by Crash Test Dummies. No idea why that didn't show up."
Showed up here. I don't remember Solomon Grundy as the villain in Superman Comics from when I was a child. I think maybe he came before and then after my time
Another "Superman" song:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nvsbk4P3NQ0
you can just go buy them
But you can't... to buy them you have to know what they are, assuming they're an obvious, currently manufactured part. But for an awful lot of things you either have to try them to find out, or they're just not made. Having a collection of mixed nuts and bolts means you can find what you want, or a close approximation, then order that one thing if you need to.
OK, you can just buy what you need. You say "hmm, about 6mm bolt, about 60mm long, fully threaded, with a button head cap screw. Preferably stainless. Then you go online, and order one each of all the things that more or less match that spec.... in BSW,Metric,Metric Fine,UNC,UNF. Then you note that sometimes the 318 stainless have different thread pitch than the 316 so better grab some of those too. And maybe some 304 metric coarse, just in case. So now you have 10 different bolts, and you're paying $30 for one of each... from three different suppliers because no-one covers all the options.
https://www.bolt.com.au/allen-key-products-socket-head-cap-screws-c-1010_1994_1995.html
Bicycles are a disaster for that. Lots of lock nuts that have 2-3 threads in the nut, made of hardened steel, and if the thread pitch is wrong they still go on, but they strip before developing enough force to be useful. Eventually you learn what AvE describes as "tighten until it strips, then back off a quarter turn".
Regular "non-nuclear" scrap from, say, junked supertankers is OK up to 250,000 Bq/tonne, fifty times as radioactive as "official" nuclear waste without it needing to be actually treated as nuclear waste.
That's something to keep in the fact folder. Do you have a pointer to a document containing it?
whitroth @ 400: No, the farm couple was obviously the Kents.
Yes, I got that. I was responding to "MIB explained all of that."
It didn't even mention them as far as I can remember.
Please - we had several racks that had round threaded holes. When they do NOT match the threads in the ears on the server....
Meanwhile, square hole racks: we had a number from APC (UPS maker) and one or two from HP.
The snap-in nuts were just a pain, even with BHS (technical term, Big Honkin' Screwdriver), but way less trouble than the round-hole racks. And we did have a literal drawer of two or three different sized nuts, then to try to find bolts that fit them....
Elderly Cynic @ 401: I really don't understand this fetish for precise measurements for a great deal of cooking and I am perfectly happy with older recipes that just give indicative amounts. Yes, there ARE recipes where exact amounts matter, but there are lots where they don't - in some cases, they can even be harmful, and it is much better to do it by feel and/or taste.
I think it's mainly some people didn't learn to cook growing up; came to it later in life and have not yet developed the almost instinctual understanding required to deal with "feel and/or taste".
Plus it seems like there are a lot of computer programmers around here who may not quite grasp the precise difference between algorithms and recipes.
Since we lived in a somewhat rural area and had a small tractor that we (mostly I) used to mow fields, an incredible amount of plant "dust" kicked up by the mowing process.
OK, you can just buy what you need.
There's a store a few miles from me that is called "XXXXX screws and fasteners". 2000+ SF with shelves about 8' high. They have what I want maybe 1/3 of the time.
That's because Solomon Grundy was one of the two main enemies of the forties Green Lantern, some sort of swamp creature that, since that GL's ring wouldn't work on wood (new GL doesn't work on yellow), was immune to it.
I was responding to the newspaper, not the story.
Robert van der Heide @ 413: It’s still around: in the course of working on some bits & bobs for the SLS I’ve encountered more than one program document with temperatures in Rankine.
I thought a "rankine" was one of those little dishes used in French cooking for making individual quiches & such? If that's not it, what are they called?
Nancy Lebovitz @ 422: Are there apps which can look at hardware and say whether it's imperial or metric?
They make plastic gauges you can hold the thread up against and it will tell you the thread pitch which in turn tells you if it's metric or imperial or "standard" (and what size it is).
And for onion soup: ramekin.
Niala @ 431: Nancy Lebovitz @ 428
You're right, since you can have both imperial and metric together within the same computer.
Years ago I owned a Ford Pinto Station Wagon. Body manufactured in the U.S., but the engine was a German OHC 4-cylinder. Interesting thing - every part, every nut & bolt on that German engine was manufactured to U.S. (SAE) standard.
But the body, made in the USA, was ALL METRIC.
JBS @ 473
"I thought a "rankine" was one of those little dishes used in French cooking for making individual quiches & such? If that's not it, what are they called?"
Do you mean a circular mold with wavy sides?
As far as I know we call them "moule à quiche" or "moule à quiche et à tarte" since the same kind of mold can be used to make pies with crusty wavy sides.
Moule means mold in French.
But you don't have to believe me. Put "moule à quiche" in Google image search and you'll see piles of them pop up, in all sizes.
Sorry, no special name for any of them.
whitroth @ 467: Please - we had several racks that had round threaded holes. When they do NOT match the threads in the ears on the server....
Meanwhile, square hole racks: we had a number from APC (UPS maker) and one or two from HP.
The snap-in nuts were just a pain, even with BHS (technical term, Big Honkin' Screwdriver), but way less trouble than the round-hole racks. And we did have a literal drawer of two or three different sized nuts, then to try to find bolts that fit them....
I used to encounter rack mounts when I was doing fire & burglar alarms (lots of equipment mounted in telephone closets used them). Those racks had big holes & little stamped clips that you could run a screw in to.
Some of the clips had a captive nut, but all of them would slop around a little bit to allow you to to line them up with the holes in the equipment ears. The key was not to fully tighten the screws until you had them all started.
And all the rack mounting hardware was 10-32x1 inch.
thread pitch gauge
They make plastic thread pitch gauges? That's scary. I'm used to thin metal ones that fold out like a swiss army knife, and those are pretty fragile. Plastic ones would have to be thicker to stop them falling aprt in a light breeze.
Sadly those only tell you threads per inch/mm per thread, which doesn't necessarily help. If you have a bolt they can help you guess the cutting angle, which will distinguish further in some cases.
But the world is full of mixed-unit "standards".... 10mm x 28tpi (there's more to it than that, but those are the two most used numbers you'll need). Park have an explanation of what a bike mechanic should know that's aimed at people who don't know much:
https://www.parktool.com/blog/repair-help/basic-thread-concepts
The key was not to fully tighten the screws until you had them all started.
That's a rule for life, not just server racks. Always start all the fasteners before tightening any of them.
That's something to keep in the fact folder. Do you have a pointer to a document containing it?
Sadly not any more. I think I got it from comments on the now-extinct Depleted Cranium website, a pro-nuclear blog. The URL is now a spamhaus/linkfarm. I think they provided links to NRC documentation on the subject but I don't have them.
Anything "nuclear" is special, things with radioactivity in them that are, say, medical waste and the like can be dumped down public drains for safe disposal. It's why, for example, weeks after the Fukushima reactors blew their top noticeable amounts of I-131 were detected in Boston harbour and this caused panic in the Chicken Little set. It was eventually pointed out that a number of hospitals in the Bay Area regularly flushed waste materials into drains, never mind the patients who peed and excrteted this sort of stuff after treatment.
Nahh... it's find bolts, See if they screw in all the way, with no weight on them. THEN use them to mount the server.
Ramekins That's what they are.
Niala @ 477: JBS @ 473
Do you mean a circular mold with wavy sides?
As far as I know we call them "moule à quiche" or "moule à quiche et à tarte" since the same kind of mold can be used to make pies with crusty wavy sides.
Moule means mold in French.
But you don't have to believe me. Put "moule à quiche" in Google image search and you'll see piles of them pop up, in all sizes.
Sorry, no special name for any of them.
I believed you, but those weren't what I meant. Whitroth recognized it - It's called a "Ramekin"
Brian Lucey @ 483: Ramekins
You got it! It looks a bit like Rankine and it's small. And it even has its own Wikipedia article:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramekin
Couple of influences; one is that baking does benefit from precision, and many people are confused between baking and cooking, which leads to cooking recipes getting written in a baking style.
Second one is that various commercial chefs, people fundamentally concerned with reproducibility of just exactly this same dish, have started writing recipes publicly. Which has it good points; follow that recipe and it'll do the thing. But it also leaves very little room for "and when it has boiled enough".
I suppose you could make a quiche aux moules, too. You seem to be able to make one out of anything you like, after all. Then you could have a quiche aux moules en moule à quiche. Or something.
Plastic being soft, it would also be a lot harder to tell how well it fits, or doesn't fit. Which is often hard enough with the metal ones, especially when you get one of those bolts that nearly fits several gauges but doesn't properly fit any of them.
Also, thread gauges should be metal and clean and shiny and thin so you can line them all up and stare at the pattern of the teeth when stoned.
Do I detect stupid, childish spiteful silly games I wonder?
Solomon Grundy? But he only lived a week.
I have enjoyed the diversion into threads. I first discovered just how many details there were as an aside while I was researching how engineers got from hand-cut wooden screws to Ramsden's 125 threads-per-inch screws for scientific and surveying instruments circa 1790.
Pigeon @ 488 I suppose you could make a quiche aux moules, too.
This quiche aux moules et au vin blanc is suitably appetizing:
https://www.marieclaire.fr/cuisine/la-quiche-aux-moules,1208419.asp
Too big for a ramekin though.
Do I detect stupid, childish spiteful silly games I wonder?
Interestingly, scroll down past the end of your linked article (from the Guardian) and MSN has an article from the Independent headlined "Boris Johnson fails to secure Brexit concessions"
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/boris-johnson-fails-to-secure-brexit-concessions-after-three-hours-of-face-to-face-talks-in-brussels/ar-BB1bNlcU?ocid=msedgntp
My guess is the EU is simply being patient, waiting for Boris to concede no deal so the EU can't be accurately blamed for a no deal mess - or the alternate that Boris caves in and takes what the EU is offering.
Though the Independent article indicates that France is starting to think that no deal is better than decades of a bad deal, so time will tell - not the least if the new deadline of Sunday is really the final deadline or not.
"So now you have 10 different bolts, and you're paying $30 for one of each..."
This is about the point that you realise that the thing you're trying to match is BA. Which for those unfamiliar with it, is a fully metric thread specified by a British committee, who'd had metric explained to them by a French school boy who spoke no English. It starts with a 6.00 mm bolt with a 1.00 mm pitch called a 0BA. Then those dimensions are multiplied by 0.9 to give a 1BA 5.3 mm bolt with a 0.9 mm pitch. Then 0.9 again for 2BA and so on.
Amusingly an M6 and 0BA have the same thread pitch, and very similar diameter. So if you compare a 0BA bolt to a known metric by aligning threads as described above.... They're the same... (but with a completely different threadforms).
BA... is a fully metric thread specified by a British committee
The great thing about this blog is that no matter how awful your current situation there's always someone who can describe eldritch horrors that make you think "thank fuck I never have to deal with them".
Threadforms are one reason why I have never owned a lathe. I'd like one, they're amazingly useful tools and I'd get quite a lot of use from one. BUT... I just know that I'd end up swapping whatever I bought for something that comes with a rack of gears that doubles the size of the lathe, purely so I can swap them around to actually cut every thread that I want to.
For those lucky enough to be unfamiliar, lathes generally have a long threaded rod that spins below the chuck to push the cutting tool along, so you can cut threads. It's slightly mesmerising to watch and youtube has many, many videos.
BUT the gear ratio between the chuck/thing you're cutting and that shaft has to change when the thread pitch does. Bigger lathes have built in gearboxes and 2-5 shift levers (and a clutch!) with a complex chart explaining which combination of levers corresponds to a given thread pitch. But those gearboxes have a limit to how many ratios they can give you. So other lathes, and almost all smaller lathes, have a literal "box of gears" and you manually swap them in and out of the drive system to get the ratio you want. Which is great, especially for really small lathes where you can us 3D printed plastic gears to get quite literally any ratio you like.
Modern CNC lathes get a similar effect by having really, really small steps in the drive system and a really complex drive that smooths those steps into a nice clean thread path. You can buy these off the shelf if you have a few million burning a hole in your pocket, and a large factory to put one in.
What you're looking for is an Electronic Lead Screw (ELS). A rotary encoder on the chuck spindle reports the angular position of the spindle and a box of sparkly bits decides how many steps to output to a stepper motor driving the lead screw depending on what pitch you plan to cut. Adjusting the ratio between the spindle output and the rate the steps are issued to the stepper motor gives you all the pitches you could ever think of, metric, Imperial, Aztec etc.
An ELS can get out of step, losing position lock but it works most of the time and it costs a lot more than the price of a few common change gears that cover the 99.99% of pitch ratios you would ever actually want to cut.
British Association (BA) threaded fasteners do actually have a modern use, for scale modelling. The numbered sizes match scale ratios as do the fastener heads like screws and hex nuts so they don't look out-of-place on models. The odd non-standard threadform of 47.5 degrees with rounded tops and bottoms works well in brass, bronze and softer metals compared to the 55 degrees for cast and wrought iron (aka Whitworth) and the 60 degree sharp-edged threadform used in modern steels (SAE and metric). I have actually worked with BA threaded fasteners on older instruments including optics and I have several sets of BA taps in my collection.
Just because it's messy doesn't mean there isn't a reason for it.
Re: '...odd non-standard threadform '
Okay - this looks like a job for a 3D printer.
Just wondering why this fundamental stuff (nuts, bolts, screws, etc.) hasn't been updated to/with 21st century tech.
Ha! The name! I couldn't think of the bloody name.
Yeah, the cheap one I saw was not great, but it was very affordable. For CNC machine values of affordable ~10 years ago.
Trampoline may intend to live at Mar-El-Lago after Biden's inauguration but he'll have to sue to do it:
https://www.thelist.com/288344/heres-why-trump-wont-live-at-mar-a-lago-when-hes-no-longer-president/
Suing people to bully them into getting what he wants is nothing new to Donny but having already irritated his new neighbors (most wealthy; some far wealthier than him,) means that even in Trump-friendly Florida it isn't a given that he would be successful. But this IS Florida so I personally think his chances are pretty good of getting the contract changed so he can live there, maybe only until he buys another property in a more Trump friendly locale, possibly somewhere without an extradition treaty with the US.
Re the FireEye attack: FireEye Shares Details of Recent Cyber Attack, Actions to Protect Community (December 08, 2020, Kevin Mandia, FireEye) Quote: "Recently, we were attacked by a highly sophisticated threat actor, one whose discipline, operational security, and techniques lead us to believe it was a state-sponsored attack." OK then. Apparently only nation-states are disciplined, and use sophisticated attack techniques and operational security methods. (Assuming his statement about a high level of discipline/operational security/techniques is accurate.) Any guesses, any one? (Fingers are being pointed at APT29/Cozy Bear, for no apparent reason that I can see from public reports.) See also https://www.wired.com/story/russia-fireeye-hack-statement-not-catastrophe/ via https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2020/12/fireeye-hacked.html
I actually have a bit of a soft spot for BA. My dad worked on surveying equipment (optics, as you mentioned) in the 60's and 70's that was mostly held together with BA nuts and bolts. My favourite toy in that era was my Mechano set (with lots of lego). Mechano came with rather crude bolts and funny square nuts. My dad replaced them all with rather nice brass BA nuts and bolts. They were a bit of a challenge to put together without crossing threads, so it was a good introduction.
After he died I had some hundreds of jam jars with thousands of brass thingies, that I kept for 20 years without ever needing them.
Charlie @197: how to retrofit GPS guidance onto stockpiled WW2-era dumb bombs
Just a nitpick, but we used up almost all the WWII bombs in Vietnam; what we're using now are Vietnam-era bombs, the Mark 80 series.
JBS @222: I expect he's planning to stay at Mar-a-lago.
Yeah, I agree; he probably doesn't want to be anywhere near the New York State Attorney General or the New York City District Attorney. I suspect he might have a "recurrence" of COVID that would make it impossible for him to travel to New York for trial; of course, he could still be represented by counsel (PLEASE let it be Rudy!). In any case, I think he's going to find it's much more unpleasant to be sued that it is to sue. Serves him right.
Nojay @433: One odd feature about the scrap metals market is the increasing disappearance of sunken warships which are designated war graves in various parts of the world.
This specifically happened to the US Navy heavy cruiser USS Houston, sunk off the coast of Java on the night of 28 February/1 March 1942. Dive and sonar surveys in 2014 and 2017 show that scavengers (I won't credit them with the term salvagers) have entered the wreck of Houston and the nearby wreck of HMAS Perth and have made off with significant portions of the ship. Worse, HMS Exeter and HMS Encounter have been entirely removed - a stunning insult to the men entombed in them. It's sickening.
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this looks like a job for a 3D printer
Resolution and materials.
For PLA it looks as though 0.1mm is still pretty good (100 microns), with step sizes a tenth of that. Meaning you can put your 0.1mm feature down with 0.01mm accuracy, if you're willing to do enough test prints and control your environment tightly enough. Layers can be as thin as 50 microns. But if you look at the specs on bolts, a 6mm bolt will be between 5.974 and 5.794mm in diameter (+/-0.09mm), with very little deviation from straight. The actual threads are 100 microns with the face angles specified in two directions - the pointy angle of the ridges, and the spiral angle around the bolt. With a 6mm x 1mm pitch bolt, that gives you 20 layers per mmm, with which to construct a precise spiral with precisely angle faces all the way round.
This mob claim you can print an M3 bolt, but they only show samples of bigger than 10mm bolts. https://all3dp.com/2/3d-printing-threads-and-screws-all-you-need-to-know/
https://amesweb.info/Screws/metric-external-thread-dimensions-chart.aspx
https://all3dp.com/3d-printer-resolution/
Now, let's talk about 3D printing solid metal. The common way to do this is laser fusing powder, which does give quite good detail. BUT they almost always machine the part once finished so they get accurately dimensioned, correctly shaped surfaces. The printed surface isn't too different from a sand cast part, although with finer detail. You definitely don't want to slide on it, or rub two printed surfaces together. So no threads.
https://www.3dhubs.com/knowledge-base/introduction-metal-3d-printing/#work
Transphobia seems to be mainstream in second wave feminism. It isn't universal by any means, and it has a graduated scale, but that graduated scale definitely incorporates an eliminationist extreme. Even the soft end, which has a massive presence due to the ongoing, almost overtly exploitative discourse around a certain fantasy author, comes with some concerningly paternalistic* overtones ("we'll define the parameters within which we tolerate trans people, thank you").
Second wave always had a branch that invested deeply in essentialist versions of identity. Any kind of gender fluidity is a bit antithetical to that. But there were plenty of authors who, even in the 50s and 60s, saw the pitfalls with attributing essentialism to difference, and didn't go there. Feminist scholars in anthropology, for instance, had an empirical and descriptive focus that their sisters in other disciplines often lacked and also could not avoid introducing at least an awareness that intersectionality is important. Third wave feminists are far more tolerant, in general, and more widely read. There are still versions of feminism that are (really) only accessible to rich white women, some leaning far into some quite right-wing, Ayn Rand lite versions of identity, but at least that sort of thing is more isolated these days. Or at least it seems that way, but this may be sample bias: when you see friends getting caught up in defence of a certain fantasy author and relying on pro-life US websites for "evidence", it all gets a bit distressing.
I met a couple of Greg Tingeys in Elgin once, typical blog people: sneering at anything & everything offline, denying that normal people had any sense at all & behaving generally like the petty little folk that they were. They convinced me the entire Internet was rubbish. I also read an Observer supplement in 1997 on web browsers so I know what I’m talking about. Oh & I do, occasionally, read "The Scotsman" although no one in Scotland does...
"is a small collection of carefully labelled jars. If you fuck with those jars one of us is going to die, because there is hours of work required to re-sort them."
I utterly fail to understand why nobody has taken one of the amazingly good cheap "USB microscopes" and built a machine around it which can sort random screws, bolts, nuts and washers into whatever categorization the owner wants.
They could sell one to every workshop in the world.
Likewise. I tried stocking up on large quantity of screws for particular purposes, usually for one project with a large fastener requirement, then adapting future projects to work with that. It doesn't work well of course. So I learned to buy as close to the quantity I needed for any shape/size/function, and specialising much more closely to the specific current project. That leads to a really quite broad range of things left over, and I've never thrown out something that at least in theory is usable for the next project. Extends to wood, parts including house parts, stairs...
Of course "things specialised to this project" includes drill and driver bits and other tools. Sorting and organising the resulting collection is not something I've put a lot of time into in recent years. I'm in the process of sorting into small parts organisers, the sort you write on the front of with permanent marker (and wipe off with alcohol if you ever need to). But I've several toolbags, sections of floor, shelves and at least one work surface in the "needs to be sorted" category. Maybe it's time to throw a few things away...
Always start all the fasteners before tightening any of them.
Applies no matter what the fasteners are, or what things they are fastening together.
There are some exceptions though (well all rules like that have them). This rule continues to apply if you have "enough clamps", but there exist projects where the concept of "enough clamps" is an abstraction that can only be quantified using complex numbers, as there's a substantial imaginary component, even when the real component approaches infinity. Sometimes you just need clamping force from one of the first fasteners you drive. Actually some glue-and-screw joins, especially in case making, can only be clamped with exotic angle clamps that you won't find even if you own a set of them. But laminating gunwales and masts is the sort of thing you spend some non-trivial proportion of your life preparing for, and that preparation involves regularly visiting the local $2 stores and whenever they have cheap F-clamps at a substantial discount (so cheap they might as well be single use), you buy ALL of them, then rinse, lather, repeat.
But this stuff is a function of the sort of thing-making you do.
If you try building a screw sorting machine you'll find out its not so simple.
This guy built a machine to sort Lego. A screw-sorting machine will have many of the same problems. You also have the challenge of making it economic. You can buy new screws for ~10p each, so your sorting machine is going to have to take scrap screws and sort them for around 5p each before you can start making a profit (bagging and retailing is usually around 100% markup on raw costs).
But hey, go for it. You might become a millionaire, and it would be a really cool project.
I honestly belive that giving the UK any kind of deal, at this point, will be a massive strategic mistake by the EU!
The Tory's still have 4+ years of "government" in the tank, and based on recent form, they will immediately pour all of their dark energies and nation state (those are not just the UK's) ressources into undermining whatever treaty they just signed up to and on "putting Brussels back in it's place".
In the best case, trade lawyers representing the EU will be stuck in arbitration proceedings for the next 30 years and "Brussels" would eventually create a whole new directorate just for UK-EU trade disputes!
Of course the EU will get the blame for the failure, but, the EU was always going to get the blame.
In the UK of course, but, also from EU members states and even if 'Brussels' just 'acts as instructed' and saves someone from vetoing a deal, the same someone will publicly blame the EU! It's how it's done!!
In my years of sysadminning, Dell was pretty much the one maker where you could be confident you were not going to leave some of your skin, blood and/or soul inside the machine. Same applied to desktop, but I was already transitioning out of that by the time these sorts of machines were appearing. I hated the spring clips, and have scars in the backs of my thumbs from the several times one would spring out just at the wrong moment, even using a flat-blade to tension the bugger. And of course anything sharp inside the case would always get you one day.
"If you try building a screw sorting machine you'll find out its not so simple."
Ohh I know.
But I'm not talking about a machine to be run under commercial conditions.
I'm talking about a small contraption I can put in a corner of my workshop table, fill the hopper with a handful of hardware and ignore until it is done.
The crucial thing about "home-robotics" people utterly fail to understand, is that there is all the time in the world.
For all I care, the "Acme screw sorting machine" could take month to go through and handful of hardware, it would still be sorted faster than it would otherwise.
Greg @ 489: Do I detect stupid, childish spiteful silly games I wonder?
No, you detect professional negotiators manoeuvring for position. Even the fish dinner hit its real target of the Press.
Negotiating 101:
The "don't be in a hurry" rule explains all the fake deadlines: they are created in an attempt to make the other side hurry up and thereby get a worse deal.
The real problem is that the BATNA rule and lots of other smaller tactics used by professional negotiators assume that the cost/benefit trade-offs are reasonably linear, and its just a matter of using probing offers to find out what the other side's trade-offs really are. In the Brexit negotiations things are highly non-linear because the cost/benefit analysis for the economics and the politics are very different, and the politics are also very different between the two sides. Boris has to keep his party together, and in the long term he has an election to worry about. Ursula von der Leyen has to worry about keeping all the other EU countries on board and getting a deal that they will all vote for, which no doubt involves a lot of tense negotiating as well.
Note that Lego has a small number of known parts (~100k), and anything you don't have a 3D CAD file for can be rejected. Even if we agree to use only the 6 most common systems of nuts, bolts, screws, and washers there's still a scary number of variations even before we get into different types of bolt heads and nuts.
The sorting machine would be better as a community resource - I would happily go somewhere and pour my various "misc" containers into it then take the resulting collection of carefully labelled little ziplock bags home. But I wouldn't buy the machine, even if it was trade hardback book sized and price, because I wouldn't use it more than once a year. Having it as an online service would also work - cellphones with macro mode and a bit of video or a few photos, it tells you what you have.
Actually, reverse the machine: instead of sorting parts, it finds them. You pour in your collection of bits, and it has a screen to display (and export) the list. You can pick a part, but you can also say "give me a selection of roughly 5mm nuts" and it gives you one of each of the nuts it has that match the spec. You wander off and try them, leave the one that fits in situ and return the rest. I'd be more interested in one of those, especially the smallish size that only holds, say, 10,000 parts. They'd obviously need to go all the way up to gigafactory size, because that's the size when one machine could dominate the whole world ... you send in decent photos of the fastener that you have, it sells you the corresponding bit(s).
But note that we don't have even a stab at one key part of this system: recognising materials from photos. The difference between a galvanised nut and a steel one can be subtle, but the difference between class 10 and class 12 steel, or 316 and 304 stainless is something I can't tell, its either labelled or I'm lost. I'm not sure it's even theoretically possible to distinguish those using visible light photos.
I'd love to build a smallish 3-axis CNC router table... 2400x1200 would be great, but half that size would most likely do. I say router, but understand that ranges from a small cutting laser to a Dremel to a hand-held Makita router in a mount and double duty as a plotter is expected. The 3 axes are all translation, but adding a rotation axis or two would also be fun. Saving old scanners to strip for parts is part of the diy road, but I don't have space at this stage, much less time. Of course I say I want to make one, but I suspect that by the time I solve the space issue, there will be one available commercially for less than I spend on coffee in a year.
FyreEye.
In some ways it doesn’t matter. An indy Scotland could write its own constitution and dispense with any ‘crown powers’ nonsense - write the monarch out of the constitution to the point of virtual irrelevance. That way you keep Elizabeth (highly respected), leave a door open for Charles, but if there was a significant shift in public opinion in the future then it would be less problematic to shift to a republic.
Fishing: politically emblematic but not economically vital (except in certain parts of Scotland for certain types of fishing vessels & processing businesses)... Scotland's territorial waters probably much more important for offshore wind power definitely, wave power possibly and geostrategic reasons (GIUK Gap)...
Pul Not so sure about that ... because, as you said - In the Brexit negotiations things are highly non-linear Meanwhile
What do the tory headbangers actually bloody want? I don't mean the tiny minority of rich thieves, like Murdoch, Theil & Smaug, I mean the "ordinary" tory MP's & members ... because there's absolutely nothing in it for them - so what do they want & why? ( I would put Ian Duncan croak as a borderline case - rich though he is, he's not rich enough ... ) Makes no sense at all, does it?
Greg Tingey @ 520
Maybe they didn't like the idea of having their status as parliamentarians impinged on by having Members of the European Parliament representing the same areas?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_the_European_Parliament
There are plenty of people selling cheap Chinese routers, even at "coffee for a year" prices but... there are two routes you can go down. One is the CFAY pricetag router kit, about 200 bucks for a tabletop 3-axis router with a working volume of about 300 x 180 x 45mm. This is a "work in progress" unit, you're going to spend a lot of time tweaking it to make it work in the first place then keep it working.
This cheap unit will cut doorsigns and maybe non-critical PCB layouts pretty well but it won't cut aluminium never mind steel. However it uses leadscrews so there's lots of backlash and slop and it gets worse the more the item gets used and the leadscrew nuts wear in. The supplied spindle motor is anemic to say the least so your first upgrade will be to fit a big heavy more powerful spindle motor. You then find the extra weight of the motor means you want a bigger Z-axis drive stepper to lift it, you have to tweak the control loops for X and Y drive because of the extra mass, mess with the Gcode to fix cutting speeds etc. and the leadscrew nuts wear faster so more slop accumulates.
The slop and backlash can be fixed with ballscrew replacements for the leadscrews but this reveals the slop in the supporting shafts for the X and Y axes so you get ballrace slide bearings to replace the original plastic bushings and...
In the end you've spent a lot more money and way too much time and a lot of failed parts and expended raw materials than you intended on your "cheap" router and it's still not as good as a properly made high-end hobbyist/low-end pro router is out of the box, with support, tooling, a user community etc.
My own dream machine in this category is a Pocket NC V2. I CAN afford it, I don't have a good enough reason to buy it though and I know for sure I couldn't make one myself.
https://www.solidprint3d.co.uk/pocket-nc-cnc-machines/
What do the tory headbangers actually bloody want?
Thats a good question. I'm going to channel some dead relatives here, as I had a number of conversations with them about this kind of issue before they passed on. The following is a composite.
This person reads a newspaper on the political right, which they regard as the most reliable form of news. They distrust the BBC and C4 as being home to a metropolitan liberal socialist elite who have forgotten what patriotism looks like.
They object to having lots of EU laws imposed on the UK. They quote the relative number of EU regulations versus laws passed by parliament. When asked for specifics they will mention topics such as the CAP, fishing grounds, bendy bananas, metric weights and measures, giving prisoners the vote, and immigration (they don't really distinguish between EU citizens working here legally, genuine refugees from war zones, and economic migrants jumping on lorries at Calais). They also express a more general opinion that the whole of the EU is an anti-British conspiracy led by the French, and that nothing good for Britain ever came out of Brussels. On one occasion I mentioned some issues we were having at work with a Spanish contractor, and the response was "Well, what do you expect from Europe?". They may also mention a general desire to keep the pound rather than adopting the Euro.
In general they regard trade as a mercantilist zero-sum game in which exports are good and imports are a regrettable unpatriotic necessity. They still recall "Buy British" campaigns from the 1970s and regard this nothing more than common sense.
I never had the opportunity to debate Brexit with them as they sadly died before the question came up. However I'm certain they would have been very much in favour of it. They would have wanted what Boris promised during the Referendum campaign: no money sent to Brussels, no need to incorporate EU rules in our laws, no second-guessing our judges on human rights, and no immigration (legal or otherwise) from the EU or anywhere else.
They would regard the current negotiations with the EU as merely the continuance of the anti-British conspiracy I mentioned earlier; the EU would be seen as negotiating in bad faith in an attempt to either force Britain to choose between accepting all the EU rules it just threw out, or else to suffer economic destruction wrought by impossibly high tariffs.
As to what they would want Boris to try to get in the current negotiations, I don't think they would have a coherent opinion once you got past "no compromise on sovereignty". They would consider no deal to be the best outcome, and regard predictions of Kent being buried under lorries as mere scaremongering by the liberal elite. If pressed they would start to cite WW2 as a precedent for how we will deal with it (which, to be fair, they had lived through).
If it’s a sealed box it can have X-ray fluorescence built in. I don’t know if you can sort 304 from 316 with anything short of wet chemistry, but it will certainly get you brass vs. steel vs.stainless.
Betrayal, More than anything else they expect, crave and demand to be Betrayed!
They are like truffle pigs, sniffing, snorting and rooting in the mud for every morsel of "The Good Stuff", however deeply buried it is.
I think one of the biggest sources for this was (and may still be) Scapa Flow, where the German High Seas Fleet was scuttled after WW1. It avoids the war grave issue because everyone survived.
What do the tory headbangers actually bloody want?
To create a comfortable life for themselves and possibly get rich(er) in the process.
Which means a combination of continuing to be elected an MP (with all the perks it offers) followed by the patronage job offered by Conservative Party supporters should the unthinkable happen and the electorate turfs them out.
Which means continuing to support Brexit (because that's what their constituents want), and possibly supporting a no-deal Brexit because that's what the people who provide the MP equivalent of the golden parachute want.
That only a small handful of rich people want a no-deal Brexit is irrelevant - they hold the purse strings that eventually almost every MP is chasing.
(to be fair, there are some who genuinely want to serve the country - but for most it is a career).
But I've several toolbags, sections of floor, shelves and at least one work surface in the "needs to be sorted" category.
I have a drawer labeled "To Be Sorted". It is my go to place when looking for something that I can't remember being intentionally put somewhere.
This is why when you try to bargain with a car salesman the salesman will disappear for 5 minutes to "ask his manager". He isn't talking to the manager, he's just letting you get impatient. Counter-move: take a book and act like you've got all day
My last 2 car purchases took me 3 months. I was willing to find the car I WANTED at the price I wanted to pay. And had done my homework and knew that model was an option at that price.
Really flummoxed the sales folks when I walked out multiple times. When I bought my truck 3 years ago I said a price several times and they kept coming down and I was walking out the door after telling them I'd check back in a week and see if they still had it. They met my price.
so what do they want & why?
I suspect it is like the Trump and R situation over here. Those folks have climbed on the Trump tiger and just don't know how to get off without leaving the world they know. (Get eaten in a primary over here.)
Ditto in the UK. They have climbed onto the Brexit tiger and there doesn't seem to be any way off it that doesn't mean they are out of a job.
What do the tory headbangers actually bloody want?
They're the xenophobe faction of the Brexit coalition.
They want a white ethnostate with enforced prescriptive social norms. There are pretty clear signs they expect to achieve their goals through violence.
Great essay describing a true Trump supporter.
In the discussion on a screw, bolt, and nut sorting widget. I assume it presupposes a CLEANED part to examine. So don't forget to add that step (and possible plumbing but not connected to the household drain) to the magic box.
Car marketroids are not exactly the sharpest knives in the drawer, and they seem to have a limited playbook. Presumably somewhere there is a 3-ring binder(*) and accompanying power-point presentation for the 1-day training course in How To Sell Cars which is used by every showroom in the country. If you get outside their playbook they don't have a clue.
When we lived in the USA and bought a car we experienced the USA version of this. The playbook is different over there but is still just as rigid. They do a 2-handed game with the "liner" (good cop) who then hands you over to the "closer" (bad cop). The closer got this rabbit-in-the-headlights look when we simply refused to play along with his games.
(*) In the UK our binders have 2 or 4 rings, never 3. But they are still 3-ring binders in spirit.
We're shopping for a new car now. (My wife's small run about was recently totaled.) We're in good shape as a have a big truck I can use for now while she drives my Civic. Thus I don't have to be in a hurry. As you say, the car marketroids don't know how to deal with someone who says "I need a car in the next month or few. I'm thinking of new but may buy used."
I got the beginning of a good cop\bad cop routine one day when I went to buy an Acura Integra near Montreal.
The salesman had played his role of good cop flawlessly. We then went to see the sales manager, who was supposed to play the bad cop. He started a sentence that betrayed him. I got up fast, told them it hadn't been a pleasure to do business with them, and rushed out of the manager's office and the dealership, without looking back.
The two ran after me and reached me when I got to my car. Suddenly, they had forgotten all about playing cops. I rolled out of there with a new Acura and with my first personal experience of a good cop\bad cop routine. I haven't had any other since then.
Paul & others on the tory headbangers. Thank you - my brain hurts. Curiously I'm certain that my late father, having seen Germany M
Not in the forties DC universe.
True. There are some vendors who build and sell Supermicro boxes that are ok, too, though Penguin once in the years at the NIH got the rails right, and the rest of the time it was "let's change it, because these are cheaper for us to buy".
sigh A vendor of storage devices that I liked, AC&NC (offices, and actual building of the boxes from parts in Pittsburgh, PA), good prices, really reliable, had excellent rails as well... which MATTER when you're trying to install a 4U box holding 42 hard drives....
Oh, re the post above - I was amused that the post I was responding to, talking about servers and rails, had a nice round number: 512.
Um, no. Just NO! Acme?
That is the company that Wile E. Coyote deals with. It would randomly shoot a bolt or nut in a random direction, most likely at the door as you walked into the room.
So, a 1950's "high tech" version of the 1890's, you say? Everyone knows their place, and tugs the forelock as appropriate?
I do my research beforehand, and then go out looking, after seeing an advertised price.
Car salesmen, on the other hand (never had a woman selling a car), are frequently, in the US, former jocks and other "popular" guys in high school, personable, but mostly clueless.
Had one fool, after I'd been in Texas for a year or so, so I'd guess '88, my late wife was looking to replace the car she'd bought before I came down, that was a replacement for the car she had that she'd been the second car in a 12-car pileup. Anyway, we go in, and we tell the guy she's the one looking to buy, and he starts talking to me. We told him again, and again, he wouldn't talk to her. We left, but she stopped into the office on the way out and complained. We didn't go back there.
Then there was when we were looking for our first minivan. Saw a nice Dodge Caravan, but it was the short one, and when he asked us what we were looking for, she said that it had to carry "a couple of full-sized dog crates", and I said, "a four by eight sheet of plywood. Clearly desperate to sell what he had, he looks at us, and says, "well, you could cut the sheet of plywood in half" (!!!). We left.
Greg Tingey @ 537: "I'm getting not just "a bad feeling" about his, but that it's going to get worse, much worse."
Have you ever taken a look at the wikipedia article titled:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_agreements_of_the_United_Kingdom
Lying is forbidden on Wikipedia and so is speculation. This is why there are severe warnings at the top of this article.
But my interest is not so much about the lies as about the warping of reality. If you scroll down a bit you'll reach a big board called "Signed UK trade agreements". It has a column for the signature dates and another one in which you have the date the treaty is to be effective.
It has no column, no mention anywhere outside the board, of implementation rules and their dates.
The article actually boasts of having cut normal trade agreement from 1,400 pages to 40 for a "continuation" version.
Going back to the original topic, but I learned something today that affects both the NeverNever (previous thread) and this one.
Here's the deal: If you know anything about Australian aboriginal mythology, you know that there are a lot of cultural heroes "turned to stone" in Australia. It's quite well established that these are actually memory palace features: that peak is the end of this mythological kangaroo's "dreaming" journey, and if you follow the track back, you'll find all sorts of places that are core habitat for that kind of kangaroo.
What's less well known is the number of lawbreakers who are also frozen into stone as punishment and remembered by their stories. Now normally, with our fantasy-trained brains, we think this is about gorgonism. However, the Aborigines are rather more clever than we are in this regard. If someone really screws up, part of their punishment is that the details of their crime are worked into a memory palace using a particular location, the story to be passed down in perpetuity as a reminder and a punishment. Assuming they survived, they're then allowed to go on with their lives--with that history frozen in stone to outlive them. If you think about it, it's arguably more permanent than a newspaper story or book about a criminal case.
Now, turning to current politics, I'm thinking that permanent memorialization, ancient as it is, has a place in our current political situation.
Donald Trump, for example, has had a unique impact on the institution of the American Presidency. Therefore, he should be memorialized in his home town by renaming one of the largest structures ever built by humans in his honor. I'm referring, of course, to Fresh Kills Park which is a mound 70 meters tall that covers 890 hectares. It's a fitting tribute to a man who prized building huge so very much. Perhaps I should get a change.org petition going to the Mayor of New York?
Boris Johnson could be honored similarly. When they turn Packington into a park, I suggest that the 80 meter-high, 235 hectare park be named in the honor of PM Johnson. Everyone needs a place to remember how much he has done for the UK.
Just a modest proposal.
It seems to me that people on the more conservative side of the political spectrum have gotten much more extreme, and more violent, within the last decade or so and specifically since the election of President Obama in the United States in 2008. Am I seeing this through glasses colored by poor memory or has it been quietly growing for a longer time? I recall in 1980 I had reasonable, peaceful debates about the relative merits of Reagan and Carter wherein no one felt the need to pull a gun in defense of their sacred principles. My wife was a supporter of Jimmy Carter and I for Ronny Reagan and here it is almost 2021 and we're still married. Jump forward to the 2020 election and she's fanatical Trumpie while my viewpoint was "anyone but Trumpolini." And at times it has been almost uncivil to the point where we simply cannot discuss political events between us. Others I have encountered have made me distinctly nervous for my own safety. Was it really the election of a black guy that started a second American Civil War? Because that's what this is turning into: when elected representatives are calling for violent overthrow of the government I think that's a pretty good definition of rebellion.
But then again, there has never been a shortage of talk and threats in the United States, by both parties. We do seem to enjoy cranking the rhetoric up to eleven over here. I don't recall hearing much about this sort of thing coming from Britain (excepting the Troubles, of course, in recent times.) Yet even so it seems that rhetoric over Brexit has become not just toxic but violent. Not to the extent of the US but in ways most USians would recognize. Is this of concern to those of you living over there? If Boris comes up with a deal how likely are the more extreme Brexiter to become violent? And if Britain doesn't get a deal (my personal opinion,) what, if anything, might Remainers do, especially if things go to hell in a handbasket?
Charlie, I'm not familiar with British law. If this sort of discussion might get you in trouble please delete it. Thanks!
Niala @ 492:
This quiche aux moules et au vin blanc is suitably appetizing:
https://www.marieclaire.fr/cuisine/la-quiche-aux-moules,1208419.asp
Too big for a ramekin though.
I like!
Can't spend too long on the Vidéo du jourthough, because I'll be drooling all over my keyboard after a couple of minutes.
True. It's gotten more and more violent and extreme since Nixon's "Southern strategy" - pure, unadulterated racism. And the wrong-wing media push the narrative with a seriousness not seen in a century.
specifically since the election of President Obama in the United States in 2008. Am I seeing this through glasses colored by poor memory or has it been quietly growing for a longer time? I recall in 1980 I had reasonable, peaceful debates
It really broke into the open with the 94 election and Newt becoming speaker of the house. Of which the immediate cause was the D's getting so used to holding power in the House and Senate that they got used to the perks of the offices and gradually started breaking laws for no good reason. The 94 election of the R's was a much due to the Congressional bank and post office privileges being abused. We had a big recession in the early 90s and the D's in Congress got beat severely about the head and shoulders for giving themselves a piggy bank with no over draft fees. In essence free loans for the "privileged elites". The ads wrote themselves.
Toss in Russ Limbaugh switching from funny to mean when Clinton (he) got elected and the fire has been growing ever since.
On a longer view states rights, civil rights, voting, the "A" word, prayer in schools (totally mis-stated by everyone), etc... and the courts not agreeing with "US/ME" all made it possible. The Dixiecrats in 52 were the first real try at "Trumpism". It flamed out fairly quickly. But the embers stay smoldering.
Trump just said out loud what everyone else was saying in private. And basically told a large number of people it was OK to be a jerk or tailhole if you were on the side of "right".
Bill Arnold @ 501: Re the FireEye attack:
FireEye Shares Details of Recent Cyber Attack, Actions to Protect Community (December 08, 2020, Kevin Mandia, FireEye)
Quote: "Recently, we were attacked by a highly sophisticated threat actor, one whose discipline, operational security, and techniques lead us to believe it was a state-sponsored attack."
OK then. Apparently only nation-states are disciplined, and use sophisticated attack techniques and operational security methods. (Assuming his statement about a high level of discipline/operational security/techniques is accurate.)
Any guesses, any one?
(Fingers are being pointed at APT29/Cozy Bear, for no apparent reason that I can see from public reports.)
See also
https://www.wired.com/story/russia-fireeye-hack-statement-not-catastrophe/
via https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2020/12/fireeye-hacked.html
I got the impression it was not just the "sophisticated attack techniques and operational security methods" but the FireEye clients that were the focus of the attack along with FireEye's prior battles with APT29/Cozy Bear that led them to conclude it was a state actor.
A strictly criminal enterprise might have the sophistication & security methods, but would be more likely to go after monetary rewards rather than state secrets.
rhetoric over Brexit has become not just toxic but violent. Not to the extent of the US but in ways most USians would recognize. Is this of concern to those of you living over there?
Did you miss a pro-EU MP being assassinated in the run-up to the Brexit referendum? Or the four-fold increase in hate crime since then? It's already beyond toxic here.
Right now, though, I don't expect there to be a mass outbreak of rioting if Johnson cuts some sort of face-saving deal with the EU. I expect the real shit to hit the fan when the food shortages start.
NB: I just received a letter today, mailed first class last Friday. That's six days for delivery of a next-day letter. Something is very wrong with the Post Office already; the last posting day before Christmas is officially the 19th (or 22nd for registered post) but stuff is already grinding to a halt. This is not normal and I suspect it's the result of extreme pressure on the UK's internal logistics infrastructure, largely due to COVID19. I have a New Scientist subscription and they just emailed for the second week running to warn me to expect delays in postal service.
I partly agree. On the other hand, what democrats are seeing is the violence that US minorities have always faced. Because those causing the violence are in the decreasing minority in the US, we can predict them to act out more. Note that only 71 million voted for Trump, out of a population of 370 million. They're not the majority.
Obama wasn't a great president, but he was an extremely classy and normal president. And what he did, crucially, was to make it okay, even necessary, for white liberals like myself to start understanding our privilege and our racism, and to start doing something about it. Of course that made us all "n-lovers" in the eyes of the bigots. But you know what? Fuck 'em. I'm glad I'm changing that way.
Anyway, the US has always run on repressive and suppressive violence, from Indian genocide to slavery to racially marked profiteering. Since we're not seeing the numbers of lynchings that happened in the 50s and 60s, just a lot of fat guys waving guns, and Proud Boys getting their faces punched by self-recruited libtard Antifa, I'd suggest that the violence isn't spiking, so much as visibility of the violence is. And that's probably a good thing overall.
Just today, I ordered some boots from a British company. I got notification that they are on the way, but I'm not sure where they are sending them from. I hope I get them this winter, as I kind of need winter boots...
The facetious answer is because you're often screwing them into 20th (and sometimes 19th) century tech.
(Also everything Moz says about 3D printers, and XKCD's oft-cited explanation of standards applies too.)
for white liberals like myself to start understanding our privilege and our racism
So where did you grow up? I was born in 54 and spent my first 20 years in far western KY. Hillbillies were a foreign people to us near the Mississippi river.
Anyway you registered D so you could vote. Other than for the national races the were basically no R who ran locally so you had to be a D and vote in the primary to have your vote matter. Even if you voted R for Pres or Senator at times.
My father was considered not racist at all. His views causes issues (in hindsight) for him. This was the 60s and 70s. Today if he was alive and around with the exact same attitudes he would be called a racist. Oh, well times change.
Anyway, while I didn't grow up in the deep south I was close enough that my view of history is very different that those from the western or northern US.
Note for furiners that in the US west means either west of the Rockies or west of states that bordered the Mississippi River. South means south of the Ohio River and mostly east of the Mississippi River and North meant north of this south. East is NYC, Philli, and Boston.
I note that several almost-tory MP's ( i.e. remanants of the old Conservative party who have survived ) have started shouting quite loudly that "No Deal" will be an utter disaster - bit late, but at least they are trying ... QUOTE from the Evening Standard: Senior Tory MPs today piled pressure on Boris Johnson to get a final Brexit agreement with the European Union as shocking new research revealed that no deal spells a disastrous £10 billion hammer blow for London. Nerves jangled as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen published contingency plans for the talks ending on Sunday with no agreement. Strains were showing among Tories, with one senior MP telling Mr Johnson that he had “no mandate” for no-deal and another saying it would be “a failure of statecraft”. Whether it will come to anything is anyone's guess
Charlie IF BoZo cuts a face-saving deal, it will be bad, but we will survive. If he does not, then the food shortages may start BEFORE "christmas" & it will get very bad, very fast. Stinking deliberate liars like this arsehole don't help, either.
Damian @ 509:
Applies no matter what the fasteners are, or what things they are fastening together.
[ ... ]
I don't think of it as a rule so much as something I learned is the easiest way after doing it the hard way too many times.
Paul @ 510: If you try building a screw sorting machine you'll find out its not so simple.
This guy built a machine to sort Lego. A screw-sorting machine will have many of the same problems. You also have the challenge of making it economic. You can buy new screws for ~10p each, so your sorting machine is going to have to take scrap screws and sort them for around 5p each before you can start making a profit (bagging and retailing is usually around 100% markup on raw costs).
But hey, go for it. You might become a millionaire, and it would be a really cool project.
I don't really want to make a profit. I just want to find the one screw I need right now without having to spend hours digging through gallon size zip-lock freezer bags full of mixed screws or making a 10 mile round trip to the big box DIY store to buy more screws (90% of which are going to end up added back to that zip-lock bag.
Another take on the problem, from the Grauniad: Boris Johnson got where he is today by telling lies about Europe. He made stories up as a journalist. He told fibs on an industrial scale in the referendum campaign. Now he is telling whoppers as prime minister too. There was an “oven-ready” EU trade deal. Not true. The chances of no deal were “absolutely zero”. Same again. Britain was prepared for any outcome after 31 December. Utterly false. The prospect of EU tariffs on British goods was “totally and utterly absurd”. Another porkie. .... Moreover, why should a rules-based union like Europe trust Mr Johnson? Telling lies about Europe is one of the few consistent themes in his chaotic life and politics. It would be a foolish leap of faith to suppose he is going to change now. Politics and economics occasionally pull Mr Johnson in opposite directions on Europe. But in the end he mostly puts party politics ahead of the national economic interest. So it is again now.
Sooner or later, the lies will catch up with him, but I suspect he will die old & in bed, not of starvation on the street as some people are going to do.
So, they're doing the same thing there that Turnipolini is doing with DeJoy, head of the USPS.
All this about screws and threads... I got a picture in my mind, of a bomb that's got to be opened to be defused... and it's got a 7-pronged tool required to unscrew it, and then you turn three turns, pull, then four turns the other direction, and pull, and.....
Not exactly. The Royal Mail is being gutted for profit rather than election rigging purposes. Not that it makes much difference to people who don't get their mail.
note that several almost-tory MP's ( i.e. remanants of the old Conservative party who have survived ) have started shouting quite loudly that "No Deal" will be an utter disaster - bit late, but at least they are trying ...
They are merely arranging the quotes for when the "I told you so" starts to happen in 2021 - and to perhaps be viewed as salvation whenever the inevitable leadership change happens
(not that I am criticizing them, as they were dealt a losing hand when Boris won the election a year ago to deliver Brexit - rather they have shown intelligence and waited for the best time to object given they were never going to be able to turn the Conservative ship around prior to Brexit unfolding).
with one senior MP telling Mr Johnson that he had “no mandate” for no-deal and another saying it would be “a failure of statecraft”.
Not true.
Boris was given a mandate a year ago to deliver Brexit, with the type of Brexit left up to him.
Well I work for a seppo company that makes car seats for Toyota. The only parts we get that aren't from the continent are the seat foams and some bolts. SO this no deal brexit the oligarchs and gammons have planned is going to make almost every part we get in < delayed> at least 10% more expensive. 90% of the cars that the Burnaston plant produces are exported to the continent- where they will have < delays> and be at least 10% more expensive. SO option a: Toyota stays , I still have a job and Toyota cars on the forecourts of Europe are 20% more pricey- when they can get them because of the delays in the JIT pipeline. Or Toyota will quietly shift their volume production to their many European plants. their 10% that they do sell over here will be 10% more expensive
hmmmm I wonder
Am I seeing this through glasses colored by poor memory or has it been quietly growing for a longer time?
Been growing since the late 60s/early 70s, when the rich decided they were going to change the system as they didn't like being taxed.
In many ways easy to see with hindsight, though some stages of it stand out more than others.
I recall in 1980 I had reasonable, peaceful debates about the relative merits of Reagan and Carter wherein no one felt the need to pull a gun in defense of their sacred principles.
Early days, and in some respects 1980 and the election of Reagan (in the US, Thatcher in the UK around the same time) were the real start of the project in terms of getting actual results for the rich.
But because it was early days as you note it was still civil - because the differences seemed minor.
It also helped that the cold war was still raging on, creating a common cause to unite both parties and to allow for compromises.
As noted by another posted Newt Gingrich was the more obvious start of what we see today, but in some respects Newt was also a reaction to the collapse of the Soviet Union - the US no longer had an enemy to fight which allowed the acceleration of the internal fighting.
Was it really the election of a black guy that started a second American Civil War?
Partially - it was a shock to many white Americans that they were no longer the top of the heap. But note that the era just prior to Obama was also when many whites started to get worried about becoming a minority with the stories about population percentages going forward - then add in that the 2000's is when for many it became apparent that they were being left behind - the pay rises weren't happening, surviving on credit, their children weren't automatically better off anymore, etc.
Which were all things that the people behind the scenes (Karl Rove for example) very effectively manipulated in getting people to vote against their self interest.
Fresh Kills Park ... New York
Those are horrible things. You are not a very nice person. I thoroughly approve.
whitroth Not so. In the US it was & is deliberate ... here it's down to a mixture of seasonal extra load, C-19 affecting staff & ongoing incompetence & arrogance by the Post Office's "managers" - a Classic British Fuck Up in other words. dpb's take on it is equally valid, btw.
Meanwhile, on a lighter note, I thought people might like today's "Matt" cartoon" from the torygraph: HERE
mdive Yes IF you voted "leave" back in 2016 - you are only partially guilty - I know at least 2 people who voted "leave" - but stay in the either custom union or single market - i.e. a very "soft" Brexit - both are severely disappointed, shall we say? OTOH, if you voted tory in Dec 2019 you are definitely guilty & as for people who did both, well .....
I had an essentially similar comment, but didn't make it earlier for the following reason.
I had a thought that the mass burials from covid-19 deaths in NYC also ended up on one of the NYC islands, so I looked that up. They did, it's Hart Island. Wouldn't the more fitting memorial to Trump's presidency be one of the mass graves that it caused?
The answer is "no", since it would add insult to injury for the victims and their families.
So the landfill site is much betterer, and I can spin the improvement being that given Trump's time in office is represented by thousands of dumpster fires, it's fitting to give the name to the destination of all those dumpsters.
Greg Tingey @ 566
"Meanwhile, on a lighter note, I thought people might like today's "Matt" cartoon" from the torygraph:"
Yes, I bought some sausage made from it during one of my trips in Scandinavia. It was good. It's common in Sami cuisine:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sami_cuisine
Oh, this wasn't just for election rigging purposes. Trumpolini hate the USPS because Amazon (don't ask me), and the GOP in general hate it, because it's harder for for-profit companies like FedEx to compete.
You think I'm kidding? On campus at the NIH, it's almost impossible to send something by US mail; FedUps, no problem.
I was just thinking "giant pile of unwanted and toxic crap that needs to be contained for the good of the world". If only they could be named the "... Memorial Park".
But your version works too :)
gallon size zip-lock freezer bags full of mixed screws
Having those suggests you must have done something really awful in a past life. Or maybe this life.
Fresh Kills Landfill is in a New York City borough (Staten Island) that Trump won in 2020 by 56.6%. So it'd be a two-fer. Would renaming Fresh Kills Landfill in honor of Donald J. Trump require his consent or would we need to wait until he died? Maybe make it a ballot initiative to make it harder for him to sue. For years I drove by a big "Donald J. Trump State Park" sign daily; the "park" is a bunch of abandoned land donated to New York State as a too-large tax writeoff (never prosecuted as tax fraud, perhaps it was legit.) plus a sign on the highway to make Trump-loathing commuters angry and feed DJT's narcissism and trolling needs. Donald J. Trump State Park - This apocalyptic closed parkland is the result of one of Trump's failed investments.
"If pressed they would start to cite WW2 as a precedent for how we will deal with it (which, to be fair, they had lived through)."
As children.
That makes a huge difference. Children were largely insulated from the stresses of rationing while being fully exposed to the intense propaganda campaign of all pulling together for the war effort. The experience of a 40 year old woman with 3 kids under 5 and a husband in a prison camp is going to be quite different to the experience had by the 3 kids.
Oh, this wasn't just for election rigging purposes. Trumpolini hate the USPS because Amazon (don't ask me),
Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, owns the Washington Post, who says unkind things about him - thus Trump hates anything that he can blame for making Bezos rich, and the USPS was important in Amazon's early years - hence the claim that the USPS gave Amazon "too cheap" rates.
Of course what really established Amazon in the early years was their ability to avoid having to collect State taxes, which gave them an unfair advantage over traditional retailers, but that causes too much mental problems given taxes are evil as far as Trump and company are concerned.
Yeah I had a similar thought. The experience of WWII of the slightly-older-than-boomers, along with actual boomers who feel, against all evidence, like they do in fact remember it, will be more from 50s reconstruction than the actual Blitz. People who lived through the war as adults would not tolerate such things: "You what?! You're crazy! No-one wants to live through that awful shit again!".
Of course the same people lived through the Great Depression, something else that passed out of institutional memory in the 70s and 80s.
Of course what really established Amazon in the early years was their ability to avoid having to collect State taxes, which gave them an unfair advantage over traditional retailers...
I started buying technical books from Amazon in the very early days for two reasons, neither of them taxes. First, the selection at local places was inadequate, even though I was working in a university city, so it was all going to be ordered anyway. Second, they had excellent customer comments and ratings up and running. 37 people thought this one was good, 57 thought that one was bad. Comments like "great reference, no good for beginners" or "good as an introduction but doesn't go into enough detail" are invaluable.
To be honest, though, the rating system in the early days was more valuable simply because no one was trying to game it.
Did someone mention screw threads? I really learnt how many there were when at a place I used to work the maintenance guys kept swapping lifting lugs between big heating cans and one day it didn't go right because they got lugs with different screw threads mixed up.
Such a tiny different, but 2 out of 4 of them stripped out, causing the lifting frame for the 3 or 4 tonne heating can to warp badly and the can to drop as the chains stretched by a factor of 2 before breaking.
Fortunately nobody was beneath it but it was a close shave nonetheless and the management got a kicking from the HSE.
The experience of WWII of the slightly-older-than-boomers, along with actual boomers who feel, against all evidence, like they do in fact remember it, will be more from 50s reconstruction than the actual Blitz. People who lived through the war as adults would not tolerate such things: "You what?! You're crazy! No-one wants to live through that awful shit again!".
My parents are both dead now, and were both pretty much dyed in the wool tories ... except they were horrified by Brexit and the xenophobia that fuels it. Born in 1924 and 1929, dad was old enough to have been in the Admiralty during the war, mum was just too young when the war ended, so there's some support for your argument (adults during wartime = no time for that shit).
I started using the Great River Company about 20 years ago. For me it was a giant, free, and easy-to-use bibliographic database. That was many years before OCLC's Worldcat made its bibliographical data more or less accessible and free, on the Web.
In those 20 years of constant use I have never bought a single book or other item from that company. I patronize local suppliers instead.
I started using Amazon.ca when Chapters started playing games when ordering books.
Used to be you could order a book, and when it arrived you could take a quick flip through it to make certain it was in good condition, pay for it, and that was that. I bought a lot of books that way.
Then after Heather Reisman bought Chapters they changed the policy so that you had to pre-pay for the book which would eventually arrive. If it took too long arriving you had an argument to get your money back, because you didn't have a copy to return. If it arrived damaged it was another argument about how severe the damage was. And if it wasn't what you expected (poor quality reproduction in an art book, say) there was another argument about returning it.
Amazon didn't charge until they shipped the book, and accepted returns without arguing.
I started using Amazon.ca when Chapters started playing games when ordering books.
Chapters online worked exactly the same as Amazon did - charging when items shipped.
Used to be you could order a book, and when it arrived you could take a quick flip through it to make certain it was in good condition, pay for it, and that was that. I bought a lot of books that way.
I assume you were picking up in store then?
Then after Heather Reisman bought Chapters they changed the policy so that you had to pre-pay for the book which would eventually arrive.
Won't argue that you had unfortunate customer service for failure to deliver or damaged items.
But in fairness to Heather and her Indigo company, she bought Chapters because they were essentially bankrupt and changing procedures/policies that were the cause of Chapters losses would have been essential.
I used to go to the local second hand book dealer as the first call for anything fiction. Got all of Terry Pratchett and most of Patrick O'Brian that way. There was a bakery next door which is the only place I have seen corned-beef-in-white-sauce pies for sale as a regular, everyday thing they sold all the time (as opposed to offering occasionally when the baker wanted to try something weird). Anyhow the owner of the second hand bookshop died from cardiac disease and we always thought those pies might have something to do with it. Various people, most of them former employees, made a go of keeping the place running after his passing, but it inevitably went under. Premises is a GP clinic now. The bakery is gone too, replaced by a hole-in-the-wall cafe. The Chinese restaurant on the other side survived until COVID, but appears to have slipped under the waves too now (there is a for lease sign in the window in street view).
There are practically no retail booksellers left here. It wasn't Amazon, the big chains like Borders killed them first, before Amazon got their lunch in turn. The survivors either do something else too (cafes are a popular choice) or they are specialised as well as being long-established local institutions (for instance, the place that always specialised in art books expanded into technical books, but now carries pretty much everything).
I hated Borders... but I have to say at least they cared about what they were selling, and catered to readers. B&N is crap, though I'm waiting to see how their new owner works out.
I was ordering and picking up at my local Chapters. Something made me reluctant to use online ordering from Amazon. Might have been shipping charges, might have been lingering mistrust from poor customer service from the physical shop. Don't really remember now.
Then I stopped visiting the physics shop post-Reisman because of scents. To enter (or leave) the shop you had to pass through a section selling scented soaps, candles, etc — and I always ended up with bouts of sneezing and running eyes and nose. Mentioned it to the manager, it was ordered from corporate. Wrote corporate a letter and didn't even get a PFO reply.
I had no special loyalty to Chapters, they were just the only bookshop within a couple of hours for shopping at. IIRC the chaps who started Chapters decided to start a company to disrupt an industry and then looked around for an industry ripe for disruption and picked Canadian bookshops. When I lived in Ottawa I could visit neat local bookshops, but when I moved to Toronto I wasn't anywhere near anything but chain bookshops, and Chapters/Indigo swallowed them.
Then I stopped visiting the physics shop post-Reisman because of scents. To enter (or leave) the shop you had to pass through a section selling scented soaps, candles, etc — and I always ended up with bouts of sneezing and running eyes and nose. Mentioned it to the manager, it was ordered from corporate.
Not to my taste either, but again, it was evolve or die against Amazon.
I suspect the margins on those "lifestyle" products are quite healthy and help keep the stores profitable, as well as generating foot traffic as many people shifted to buying books online. (much like how the drug stores rely on the high margin beauty/cosmetics sections to generate profits).
When I lived in Ottawa I could visit neat local bookshops, but when I moved to Toronto I wasn't anywhere near anything but chain bookshops, and Chapters/Indigo swallowed them.
Never got to visit a typical local bookstore, though surprisingly enough the small town I spent 10 years growing up in had 2 publishers, one of which to my surprise is still around 35 years after I left.
Also we Finns eat reindeer, occasionally. I like it, it's good gamey meat, though nowadays there's much imported red deer meat, which kind of goes into the same food category. It's not always easy to get good reindeer meat, the frozen stuff in supermarkets is okay but not good, usually.
It's also not only Sámi who have reindeer, at least in Finland (don't know about the other countries). Finns do have them, too. Also, apparently at least in some areas there are too many reindeer and they clean all of the lichen from certain areas. They are allowed to roam free for much of the year and eat what they can find, but they are also fed at least occasionally.
Being a Southern city boy, I don't know that much about reindeer, though. It can get quite political, obviously, with multiple variables.
Bit of a selfish comment here.
Marriott just extended award certs out through the end of August 2021. Which means I might actually get to see London and surrounding places. It's a 7 night cert at upper level hotels.
If vaccines work.
Now please don't burn the place down.
We'll try and clean up our parks for anyone wanting to come over here. Apparently Covid-19 encourages people to go hiking and dump their crap as they go.
Charlie @ 578 Yes - my father was, I suppose, a left-wing conservative, but he would have really gone off bang over Brexshit. It's the younger end of the boomers - people 10 years younger than me, or younger than that, who have driven this lunacy.
David L You are assuming that we won't be living under a State of Emergency at that point, of course?
You parents were the same ages as my grandparents (actually, my grandfather was born in 1925). It isn't that you're much older than me, I'm 50. But my youngest aunt is 58, my mum was the eldest and was quite young when I was born. So my grandparents became grandparents at the ages 41 and 45, which seems awfully young to me. Of course I've had that moment when younger co-workers start sharing photos of their grandkids and not felt that old. Time and ageing are weird things.
Anyway my grandfather was a farmer, but voted Labor most of his life. There was a time when one of his cousins was a perennial Liberal candidate, but in rural areas it's rare to see one of those run against the Nationals (they are coalition partners representing the conservative side of Australian politics) and when they do they are basically conservative-lite. My grandfather voted for his cousin, but switched back later (he wasn't fond of John Howard at all). Now I remember, he wasn't fond of Whitlam either, and switched for a couple of years till 1975. In that case it was about farm subsidies though.
The war did play a part in their lives. My grandmother went to dances where there were US servicemen, as a teenager. My grandfather learned his dairying during the war, working for a gentleman who'd been invalided out of the RAAF and had got his farm via some veteran's grant scheme. Neither of them knew anything about dairy farms beforehand, he said it was the blind leading the blind. He worked 3 jobs, saved and borrowed, and eventually bought that farm, while the veteran chap retired to the city. Paid it off by the end of the 40s. I guess you could make reasonable money in dairy in those days, and labouring too.
He never said, but I think he heard lots of war stories. He certainly wanted nothing to do with war or war makers, although he still got some money from the army during my lifetime letting them practice airborne stuff on his farm. Occasionally it would happen while I was staying there: you'd hear a chopper, look out the window and see a chinook hovering over the top paddock with a bunch of blokes abseiling out. They'd climb back up the ropes so the chopper didn't have to set down (I think they had to pay extra for that), it was a bit comical.
About reindeer meat, reminds me of something my ex told me.
Before we met she had a relation with a New Yorker trying a life i Sweden. When studying swedish for immigrants he used to sneak into a nearby high school to eat lunch for free. His knowledge of swedish dishes was minimal verging on non existant and he couldn't ask anyone lest they discover he wasn't supposed to be there at all. He used to describe the dishes in the afternoon to my ex though.
His reaction when he understood that he had eaten reindeer: "Oh my God! I've eaten Rudolph!"
Yeah, I have heard that comment from people not accustomed to eating reindeer!
Also it seems like in many places horse meat is not something for human consumption - for me and my circles it's kind of okay, but not very commonly available. It's also usually seen as more environmentally friendly as no horses are bred here just for human consumption, it's a byproduct of having horses for a hobby (or sport ones, but, shrug, same thing with more money).
Relevant to the OP:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/feb/27/uk-to-withdraw-from-european-arrest-warrant
Some EU countries, including Germany, cannot support extradition to non-EU countries and the whole bit about removing itself from the jurisdiction of the ECHR makes it a bit problematic anyway. The UK is forgoing (by not seeking a new agreement to provide) access to EU-based criminal databases and other law enforcement tools. "Conversely it could mean the UK becomes a safe haven for EU criminals."
I suppose not having extradition treaties plays in the same key as becoming an offshore tax haven. And I suppose there's an in-for-a-penny-in-for-a-pound aspect to it: when you're already planning to become a pariah state for other reasons, why not go the whole hog?
Oh and apparently the UK will be happy to get an “Australia style” trade deal with the EU, which is curious because there is no such deal, that is it’s a strange euphemism for not having one at all. Australia would be very happy to negotiate one, and has been pressing its case to for some time. The EU is coming around to the view it would be in both parties’ interest to start negotiating. So Boris’ comments are a bit puzzling for everyone.
Boris's comments are not puzzling at all to those who know him as a pathological compulsive bullshit artist who has staked his self-image and career on delivering a Brexit, whatever that may turn out to be, by any means necessary (and which turns out to be an insane zero trade and treaty agreements departure, because of the head-banging lunatics of the ERG who are now driving the Tory party).
Re: "... result of extreme pressure on the UK's internal logistics infrastructure, largely due to COVID19.'
In the US, UPS and FedEx have both already gone on record that COVID-19 deliveries will take priority over all other shipments. (Looks like they've also added security.)
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-usa-distribution/update-1-santa-takes-a-back-seat-to-covid-vaccine-ups-fedex-officials-say-idUSL1N2IQ2DK
"Some EU countries, including Germany, cannot support extradition to non-EU countries ..."
That is a way too simplified summary of a horribly complex bit of international relations.
In general, you almost always can and will be extradicted from any country, if what you did abroard would get you sentenced to a roughly similar non-trivial penalty in your country of residence.
If you kill somebody in UK, DE or any other EU country will extradict you both before or after Brexit, and vice versa.
The difference brexit makes is mainly in how big the administrative burden will be, and consequently how severe your crime must be for them to bother.
Som areas of crime, in particular abduction of children in divorces, are subject to UN treaties where brexit makes no difference at all.
But overall you are right.
One reason why a certain segment of UK's commercial sector pushes hard for brexit is to escape the ever-increasing push for accountability which is in EU's DNA.
In particular, a lot of fossil fuel interests have started to worry about being held accountable for "ecological crimes against humanity", which is something the European Court of Human Rights could conclude, rightly so, is indeed a crime under the EU constitution.
You are assuming that we won't be living under a State of Emergency at that point, of course?
As I said, please don't burn the place down.
It is a phrase that over here means "don't mess up".
P H-K the ever-increasing push for accountability which is in EU's DNA. Really, sure about that - asked the French, recently, have we? /snark
Charlie Slight correction ( I think ) .... Boris ... to those who know him as a pathological compulsive
bullshit artistLIAR Is the word you were looking for, surely? Bullshitters, occasionally, tell the truth!Oh and apparently the UK will be happy to get an “Australia style” trade deal with the EU, which is curious because there is no such deal, that is it’s a strange euphemism for not having one at all.
Not strange - it is a way of pretending that a no-deal is actually a deal, which will fool a large enough portion of the gullible part of the population that Boris actually got a deal, and thus that he didn't fail.
Just like with Trump, who has managed to convince most Republican voters that he actually won the election.
https://www.npr.org/2020/12/09/944385798/poll-just-a-quarter-of-republicans-accept-election-outcome
Nope, I meant bullshitter.
A liar wants you to believe their lies. A bullshitter doesn't care, they're just spouting hot air to distract you. I think we're probably only days away from Johnson announcing he's done a trade deal with the Moon.
Also it seems like in many places horse meat is not something for human consumption
That has to do with areas in Europe that were converted to Christianity, lapsed (in the view of the Church) and had to be re converted later.
Heathen animal sacrifice among germanic peoples tended towards sacralized barbecue; the re-conversion got strict about not eating horse because it got strict about no horse sacrifices. Which is why it's right out to eat horse in Anglo countries but not France or Belgium. (Or why, for that matter, Montreal's fancy serves-horse restaurant does not say they serve horse.) (Or did not; been a decade-plus since I walked past there.)
Graydon @ 601
Compared to other countries Canada does not eat much horse meat. At leasr we export more horse meat than we eat.
In some parts of Asia horse meat is considered a delicacy. We export live horses to Japan, were they are slaughtered a short time before some of their parts are eaten raw.
https://www.macleans.ca/economy/business/canada-is-a-go-to-source-of-horsemeat-these-activists-are-trying-to-change-that/
Charlie Ah, I see ... In the meantime - what have we forgotten to stock up on? Although I could manage without my mild medications, I would prefer not to - but I know others of us need them much more than I do. { Yes I know our misgovernment have promised no interruption of medical supplies, but how much do we actually value that, given their record? } Come to that, when will the store-stripping start, how long are predictions as to the shortages lasting & - as a result of that, how bad is it going to get?
I note that Starmer is doing the right thing for a Politician - allowing BoZo to own all the mistakes - but is that the right thing for a Statesman to do?
I note that Starmer is doing the right thing for a Politician - allowing BoZo to own all the mistakes - but is that the right thing for a Statesman to do?
Starmer doesn't have the luxury of being able to try and appear a Statesman - he has too many other pressing issues to deal with.
With the Labour Party divided on the issue, and with other issues within Labour threatening to derail the progress he had been making, he is stuck in a hard place, and both for the good of the Labour Party and the UK he has to be looking at winning the next election - and that means he has to keep Labour's hands clean of the upcoming mess while at the same time attempting to keep the party from splitting apart.
(to that end, my feeling is the rumoured decision to force Labour to support any deal as better than no-deal is a mistake - I think at this stage even a deal is so poor for the UK given how the Conservatives have bungled the negotiations that Labour is far better to abstain and keep their hands clean of the whole mess, so they can better argue with the voters in the future).
It's not especially likely UK politics is going to avoid disjunction with a hard Brexit.
Starmer might be concerned with preserving freedom of action for the party into an unknown future, but it's just as likely there's no consensus on "disjunct", it's a common problem with politics because everyone involved is committed to the system.
It's the younger end of the boomers - people 10 years younger than me, or younger than that, who have driven this lunacy.
Idiots who don't understand history, or they think it's just a subject in school, not a guide to "what you should and shouldn't do in the future."
Troutwaxer THAT is spot on - my neighbour has a just-13-year old son: I've told him: "Remember this, this, right now, is "History", you are living it, it's important, not just a School Subject." I think he got the message, I hope he got the message.
Meanwhile from/to our friends across The Pond - next Monday is another deadline, isn't it? What do any of you think which tricks the Trumpolini will try to pull?
mdive I think you may be correct, the Labour position should be same as the SNP's (!) - abstain - "You got us into this mess - it's your responsibility"
"Heard lots of war stories"?
Maybe.
The vets I know or have know, and from everything I read, DO NOT TALK about the real thing. A friend, at like 02:30, and seriously stoned, back in the early seventies, told one real one, which I refuse to repeat, it's utter agony. Another told one that I have no idea if it was real or not, but I won't repeat that either.
That's all I've ever heard, nor do I expect to ever hear more. What was in the papers during 'Nam was beyond more than enough. And you wonder why I want to cut the US military budget by 25%, to start (I'd go for a lot more, but trying to convert to a peacetime economy in two years is, um, right.)
Or, to expand on Charlie's description, try one of my favorite columnists, Marinna Hyde. WARNING: do not have anything in your mouth while readin, if you don't want to spray the keyboard.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/11/boris-johnson-charm-prime-minister-england-dover
On bullshit and bullshitters, see Frankfort, "On Bullshit" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_Bullshit and links therefrom
David L @555: For an interesting alternate view on regional alignments beyond Northeast, East and West Coast, West, and South, I'd recommend the book American Nations by historian Colin Woodard. While I think his analysis is a little superficial, it opens up a more nuanced perspective on the sources of regional biases. Note: the above link is NOT to Big River; you're welcome.
I was looking for a frequently updated map of the USA showing where the 17 Loony states are and where the 20 Defendant states are. I also wanted all the neutrals and the undecideds.
I think I found it within the article on the Loonies versus the Defendants in Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_v._Pennsylvania
It's an SVG file:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_v._Pennsylvania#/media/File:Texas_v._Pennsylvania.svg
If you know of a better one please tell.
In regards to people not knowing history... I was talking with someone who was probably born in 1960 or 1965 who didn't get it on the first bounce that if times are bad, you could risk your neck going out for a liter of water, and not even get the water.
They had a history degree from a major university.
In some parts of Asia horse meat is considered a delicacy.
I'm guessing also some parts of the Muslim world too, because it's occasionally available here. But we get more goat and camel than horse. There's several butchers that always have goat (as well as sheep and cow), a couple that usually have camel, and they all have other stuff on the Arabic lists. I learned to recognise a few words at one stage because they are not wild about photos, I suspect because they're aware of the cultural sensitivities.
I prefer the Japanese approach... slap a photo of some cute lambs frolicking in the daffodils on the front "contents: dead sheep chopped up into bits".
sorry: Asia... some bits are Muslim, I know, but the dominant Muslim origins where I am are Fertile Crescent rather than points east of there.
Also, calling it the "middle east" when it's not even vaguely east of here just feels wrong. I could call it northwest asia, perhaps?
For an interesting alternate view on regional alignments beyond
Trust me. I know.
I was just translating for the people NOT from North America.
Yeah, mostly "Middle East" is the best I've got too. But my mental model its pretty individualistic and diverges wildly from consensus on what is Asia or Europe, and various things in between, several of which, in my model at least, are really neither. I think my model is sort of common here, with the reservation that people trend more toward some form of social consensus and the more they travel to Europe the more they fit in with what Europeans think (and therefore disagree with me).
The "really neither" categories include the Arabian peninsula incorporating southern Turkey ("the Middle East"), Iran and the Stans ("Persia and its hinterland"), "the subcontinent" and perhaps even "the Himalayas" (even though that last one, ie Tibet, Nepal, Bhutan, is definitely "in Asia" in a simple geographical sense. I'm not sure where Georgia and Azerbaijan fit for me, possibly Europe. Also not sure about Siberia, it might also be its own thing, or Russia might be its own (sub-)continent or something. And Alaska... that's really part of Russia, at least geographically, right?
Like I said, I have no expectation this is even compatible with any consensus view, but sometimes helps understand something that others might find harder to get.
No, Alaska is not part of Russia,in any way. It is part of Noth America, in every way.
Meanwhile from/to our friends across The Pond - next Monday is another deadline, isn't it? What do any of you think which tricks the Trumpolini will try to pull?
This CNN page seems to have a good timeline for those of us outside of the US (and likely many Americans as well, given this almost always in the past has been a routine behind the scenes thing)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/07/politics/electoral-college-vote-timeline/index.html
Based on that I would say the fun potentially begins again on January 6th.
That seems, given the Trump campaign/supporters poor record to date, to be the time when the most risk could occur (and where the failure of the Democrats to take Senate seats could end up hurting the most).
But the webpage doesn't really cover what the Republicans could try and attempt, and the odds of success.
mdive I think you may be correct, the Labour position should be same as the SNP's (!) - abstain - "You got us into this mess - it's your responsibility"
My feeling - with the understanding that there may well be differences for those living in the UK, though it is hard to tell beforehand - is that at this point the deal that could appear really isn't much better than a no-deal scenario - one of the news stories claimed it is a 2% hit to GDP difference, between a 4% (deal) and 6% (no-deal) hit.
So yes, a deal will be better - but still pretty bad.
So while I could see the temptation (and there will be valid arguments) to support a deal as better than no-deal, I think in the end Labour (and essentially anyone not the Conservatives) needs to abstain so they don't get covered with the fallout that is going to happen in either case.
And Alaska... that's really part of Russia, at least geographically, right?
Other way around; the suture between the North American plate (complex) and the Asian plate (very complex) is in Siberia at the Chersky Range; the Okhotsk Plate (the Kamchatka peninsula and environs) gets involved but there isn't much doubt that it's the North American plate under Alaska and that bit of easternmost Siberia, or that the epicratonic Bering Strait is indeed epicratonic. ("sea over continental crust" = epicratonic.)
This is why it's in principle possible to construct a tunnel under the Bering Strait but not the Strait of Juan de Fuca; no plate boundary versus active plate boundary.
I want to know what the folks making predictions are imbibing if they think caloric food shortages are consistent with a 6% GDP hit.
"If anyone hinders our coming, you'll starve" is still a thing; the UK is about 60% self-sufficient in food, but all of it is dependent on integrated supply chains. And it's clear from what's already happening that an administrative blockade is indeed a thing.
You mean this?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geology_of_North_America#/media/File:World_geologic_provinces_North_America_cropped.png
So what I'm hearing at least partially resolves my problem regarding what Siberia is... it's part of North America! That's even better. So part of Russia is European, and the other part is North American... that makes perfect sense to me :)
More https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Plate
The geographic bounds (which are ultimately political, eg., Europe is in no geological sense its own continent) and the geology seldom match exactly.
Ah-Ha! That's exactly the pic that I was hoping for! I lost my time sifting through the pics in:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geology_of_North_America
Plate boundaries notwithstanding, I'm seeing Alaska and Eastern Siberia as being their own "thing", whatever sort of thing it is. Partly that's because they are together the extreme endpoint to the cycle of migratory shorebirds that I see around my hometown away from here:
https://wetlandinfo.des.qld.gov.au/wetlands/ecology/components/fauna/birds/eaa-flyway.html
Note that while following the route clockwise, after Alaska it becomes transoceanic rather than continuing further east down the Canadian west coast.
So yeah, I think Eastern Siberia and Alaska should both break away from their continental colonial overlords and form their own union. The new state would totally dominate sea trade routes in a post-warming world...
I claim the whole area as part of Greater Aotearoa (Northern Division).
Sorted.
Plate boundaries notwithstanding, I'm seeing Alaska and Eastern Siberia as being their own "thing", whatever sort of thing it is. Partly that's because they are together the extreme endpoint to the cycle of migratory shorebirds that I see around my hometown away from here:
Alaska plus eastern Siberia is basically Beringia. The Bering Sea is shallow enough that it dries out during ice ages, hence the peopling of the Americas during the last ice age.
I will point out that most of Russia (east of the Urals) is Asian, so Russia's basically the Eurasian Country. That part gets forgotten.
Eastern Siberia is an odd place. It's worth reading Across the Ussuri Kray if you want to see how odd it was, at least a century and more ago.
And if you're a SFF writer and really want to piss off a couple billion people, set a wuxia fantasy in the new Land of the Rivers and Lakes: post-climate change Siberia, the new home of the Chinese along the Arctic Sea. The market is rather limited to areas outside China and Russia, but if it floats your boat, go for it. You can even invent the Mosquito Sword style of Salmon Kung Fu.
Brexit is still a flaming dumpster fire full of turds, but over in North America there's some good news.
Serious reporters delivering serious news say Supreme Court Rejects Texas Suit Seeking to Subvert Election (New York Times)
Less serious but more fun reporters say Who's Ready To Watch Trumpland's Last Best Legal Hope CRASH AND BURN? (Wonkette)
The circus is in town and all the clowns are out, including a Trump lawyer who managed to misspell his own name in court documents, but it sure looks like festival season is winding down.
I'm not normally a ...violent...person. But right now, I've got this unwholesome hankering for an old-fashioned Roman style circus. You know, the one where the clowns are so bad, you send in the lions after them?
Uncharitable of me, I know. But that's what happens when you use cats as a defense against Trumpian psyops, and too much of the bullshit gets through. You find a atavistic craving for the sight of big cats actually doing something about the problem, instead of little ones trying to distract you and make you feel normal.
That was a fast answer from the Supreme Court! There was a full report out on CNBC by 7:30 PM Eastern Standard Time. I was hoping the suspense would last until tomorrow.
Oh well, back to the United Kingdom then.
That's Beringia, a recognized climate region and biome.
The migration patterns are probably in part because Beringia wasn't subject to continental glaciation. (Continental glaciation is absolutely terrible for your bird diversity.)
The Supremes: Buttered Popcorn 1st & Original Version (youtube, 2:48) (And "buttered popcorn" is not thermonuclear weapons going pop pop pop, reasonably sure. :-) Though we should(do) take seriously the (apparent) threat on the D.J.Trump twitter account today that DJT will destroy the world if he is rejected. I just want to stop the world from killing itself! - — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 11, 2020 (It's a narcissism thing; in context seems to be talking about how DJT started no wars etc.) )
Bold mine, from Josh Shapiro's brief. (Whole document is funny.) OPPOSITION TO MOTION FOR LEAVE TO FILE BILL OF COMPLAINT AND MOTION FOR PRELIMINARY INJUNCTION, TEMPROARY RESTRAINING ORDER, OR STAY (JOSH SHAPIRO, Attorney General of Pennsylvania) Upon that failure, Texas now turns to this Court to overturn the election results of more than 10% of the country. Accord, Precision Instrument Mfg. Co. v. Auto. Maint. Mach. Co., 324 U.S. 806, 814 (1945)(“[H]e who comes into equity must come with clean hands.”). Texas literally seeks to decimate the electorate of the United States.
Oglaf just delivered the PDFs from their kickstarter, so I've been reading those. I'm pretty sure you're not thinking of this style of gladatorial combat in the circus but I am...
https://www.oglaf.com/sport/
(NSFW. Also NSFH ... omophobes)
mdlve @ 599: Just like with Trump, who has managed to convince most Republican voters that he actually won the election.
https://www.npr.org/2020/12/09/944385798/poll-just-a-quarter-of-republicans-accept-election-outcome
I don't believe many of them needed convincing. They already wanted to believe any lie that allowed them to cast themselves as victims. Haters gotta' hate.
Niala @ 612: I was looking for a frequently updated map of the USA showing where the 17 Loony states are and where the 20 Defendant states are. I also wanted all the neutrals and the undecideds.
I think I found it within the article on the Loonies versus the Defendants in Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_v._Pennsylvania
It's an SVG file:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_v._Pennsylvania#/media/File:Texas_v._Pennsylvania.svg
If you know of a better one please tell.
That map looks pretty accurate.
Where did you get the number of 20 Defendant states? AFAIK, Texas was suing Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - 4 defendants.
I ran across a different point of view regarding the Texas lawsuit that I think makes a lot of sense.
Trumpolini is expected to go completely bugfuck with pardons between now and January 19. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is currently under Federal indictment for securities fraud and is currently being investigated by the FBI for bribery. He had no hope his lawsuit would suceed, but is angling for one of Trumpolini's crazy last minute pardons. Apparently some people don't care that a pardon is tantamount to an admission of guilt as long as it keeps them out of Federal Prison.
Niala @ 618: No, Alaska is not part of Russia,in any way. It is part of Noth America, in every way.
Russia was a colonial power laying claim to Alaska (extending as far south as northern California) between 1799 and 1867, when they sold their claim to the United States for "$7.2 million ($132 million in today's terms)".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_America
I think there has been some recent discontent in the Russian press that the U.S. might have got the better of them in that deal.
Scott Sanford @ 629: Brexit is still a flaming dumpster fire full of turds, but over in North America there's some good news.
Serious reporters delivering serious news say Supreme Court Rejects Texas Suit Seeking to Subvert Election (New York Times)
Less serious but more fun reporters say Who's Ready To Watch Trumpland's Last Best Legal Hope CRASH AND BURN? (Wonkette)
The circus is in town and all the clowns are out, including a Trump lawyer who managed to misspell his own name in court documents, but it sure looks like festival season is winding down.
Somewhat worrying is that Thomas and Alito dissented. Somewhat less worrying, but kind of surprising is that Amy Covid Barratry didn't join them. This at least partly appears aimed at allowing the Greedy Oligarch Predators to change the laws in any state where they can gain control of the legislature before 2024 to make elections advisory only. The GOP controlled legislatures will get to pick the electors without regard for who the people vote for.
These days, sure. Can you imagine trying to persuade the Czar's government of the good reasons to keep Alaska in the 19th century? If any action was required the cost-to-benefit ratio would start looking poor rather early.
Elevator pitch for Alaska: "It's like Siberia, but even farther away and harder to get to!"
Somewhat worrying is that Thomas and Alito dissented. They did not dissent; they just expressed their long-standing position that the Supreme Court has no discretion to decline to hear such inter-state cases. They agreed with the majority that Texas didn’t have standing. (IANAL, to be clear.)
@628 and @632: That's wonderful, not only is it a thing, it also has a name. Many thanks both.
So it's really up to the people of Yakutsk and Anchorage to discover all the things they have in common...
mdive I find 3rd January interesting ... new Congress sworn in ( excepting Georgia Senators ) ... hmmm. Could Pence ( acting for DT & the fascist thieves ) actually rig/alter the vote on 6th January?
Moz 😍
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ P.S. Getting weird message below: "This form is not secure. Autofill has been turned off." Which then vanishes when I click in the main field & not the comments box.
JBS @ 636: "Where did you get the number of 20 Defendant states?"
I should have used the exact term "Supporting defendant states"
I got it from the Wikipedia article:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_v._Pennsylvania
JBS @ 637
I had already read the Wikipedia article on Russian America. That's why I didn't write that Alaska had never been Russian and used the present form only.
If you take a close look at that article you'll read that "The Russians never fully colonized Alaska. For the most part, they clung to the coast and shunned the interior."
In other words they controlled only a coast line strip of what we now know as Alaska, and there were no more than about 700 Russians there.
In that respect the map showing "Russian America in 1860" at the top of the article is a major lie since it shows vast stretches of Alaska where the Russians had no presence, no control.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_America
Reasonable. However, using the absurdist geologic perpetrated above, north America is part of north-west Scotland (look it up).
And, with regard to another of the absurdist claims:
http://haygenealogy.com/dankenbring/patriots/civilwar/slavemap.jpg
They did not dissent; they just expressed their long-standing position that the Supreme Court has no discretion to decline to hear such inter-state cases.
The entire decision:
Yes. Majority: kick this nonsense out. Minority: file it straight to archives, and refuse it. Trump might spin that as a divided court, but no competent person (let alone a lawyer) would.
Indeed, this is a position that Thomas and Alito have held before:
JBS @ 636: He had no hope his lawsuit would suceed, but is angling for one of Trumpolini's crazy last minute pardons.
What happens if Trump gets the executions and pardons mixed up?
"the UK is about 60% self-sufficient in food, but all of it is dependent on integrated supply chains."
On a UK podcast ('A Different Bias'?) the guy said that the dollar figure is misleading, because the UK imports some food which is then processed and exported.
But in the end a 40% straight out blockage/processing interruption means rationing, if the UK government wants to avoid food riots.
Oh well, back to the United Kingdom then.
Or maybe not.
The Chairman of the Republican Party of Texas appears to be suggesting that the Supreme Court is failing to uphold the constitution, and thus Texas and other law-abiding States and form a new Union.
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/529926-texas-gop-chair-appears-to-suggest-secession-after-scotus-rejects
https://www.texasgop.org/chairman-allen-wests-response-to-scotus-decision/
Ah, hopeful thought...
I'd say give 'em to Mexico, but Mexico hasn't really done anything to deserve that...
I want to know what the folks making predictions are imbibing if they think caloric food shortages are consistent with a 6% GDP hit.
First, yes it is all speculation because we simply don't have any examples to base stuff on - no large modern economy country has left a trading block, and certainly not during a pandemic.
And now add in the general incompetence of the government in question to execute almost anything, which means it appears they are not ready for the new reality they are planning.
But what it comes down to is the GDP hit and food worries are 2 entirely separate issues.
The GDP hit is the expectation of the longer term damage to the UK economy, the result of businesses closing/moving or the loss of competitiveness due to higher overheads.
The food worries are entirely different - they are the concern over the government's inability to put into place the necessary infrastructure to keep goods moving across the new border(s) on January 1st 2021 when all the existing access agreements disappear and the UK government (by international law) must now treat everything under WTO terms and all the associated paperwork, combined with all the new licences/permit/paperwork for drivers to drive across the border.
(an example from here in Canada, where if you look at the sides of the tractors of long distance cross border trucks you will frequently see a list of all the provinces/states they are licensed to haul freight in - you can't simply just hop in a truck/lorry and drive across a border).
Hopefully all of this speculation ends up being wrong, but being prepared can be a wise precaution.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_divisionism
That 60% figure is the official UK government figure; quoted here by the Parliamentary library.
Things people in the present day forget about food rationing in the Second World War; UK food rationing was food supply, in that the program did not cover anything for which the government felt unable to guarantee a supply; it was set up well ahead of time; it was set up by a person of notable character and competence; it was set up using the entire power of the British Empire to do things like manipulate global commodities markets and keep the sea lanes open.
Food rationing isn't just not a solution to a Brexit-induced supply crisis; it could not be done even were it a solution. Not enough lead time to establish the mechanism, no one of sufficient competence is available to construct such a system, and no prospect of obtaining a sufficient supply of anything on immediate notice. ("Spare food" is not a thing on nation scales.)
I doubt any tory has figured this out yet; I doubt anybody who worries about logistics in any quantified way is allowed within three layers of flunkies of those doing the Brexit planning.
But it is still very much the case that there's no quick way to fix it once supply becomes questionable.
mdive So Texas is saying that "States Rights" are unimportant, are they? Or so it seems. What a turn-around. Love this quote, though: My guy Abraham Lincoln and the Union soldiers already told you no.
Brexshit - indeed - our misgovernment have been "telling business" for several months now, to "Get ready for Brexit" - slight problem: No-one has got the faintest fucking idea what the rules, if any, are going to be & what paperwork is going to be required. So, whatever happens, it's going to be total chaos. Agree that the GDP-hit & Food! are separate, but the latter will hit first & probably quite hard. "Rationing" is all very well - provided you have set yourselves up for it - which - of course - they bloody haven't.
Question: If it really does go all pear-shaped tomorrow, rather than yet another "last change" fiasco dragging on until 31/12/2020 ...Will the auto companies who have already said that they will, or are contemplating simply closing down ... actually do so, giving the country a boost in unemployment just before "christmas" I wonder? And how will BoZo & his lying clowns spin that one, I wonder?
If it really does go all pear-shaped tomorrow, rather than yet another "last change" fiasco dragging on until 31/12/2020 ...Will the auto companies who have already said that they will, or are contemplating simply closing down ...
No(*).
At least not as a result of Brexit, yet.
Regardless of the costs and hassles and hit to output productivity the car companies still need to make cars to sell, and for now that means using their UK factories.
If they have been truthful with their warnings of what will happen they will however finally acknowledge what has been obvious since about 6 months after the referendum and start planning the move to outside the UK (and in a perfect world the executives who failed to notice what any sane person noticed would resign for a failure of leadership).
actually do so, giving the country a boost in unemployment just before "christmas" I wonder?
Despite the above, anyone in any of those sorts of industries at risk for leaving the UK should be budgeting accordingly - aka saving money instead of spending on an extravagant Christmas.
mdlve @ 659 "- aka saving money instead of spending on an extravagant Christmas."
That's assuming they have any money to spare once they've paid the rent and essentials. I have a feeling it's not the case for a lot of UK workers.
Skip to the 21st century section and go to the post-2008 part in it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunger_in_the_United_Kingdom
That's assuming they have any money to spare once they've paid the rent and essentials. I have a feeling it's not the case for a lot of UK workers.
Not really UK specific, it's true in most countries at this point - temporary food banks and other efforts have become rather permanent.
But we were specifically talking autoworkers, and while they may not be as well off as they were 30 years ago they should still be reasonably well paid.
autoworkers, and while they may not be as well off as they were 30 years ago they should still be reasonably well paid.
What has the policy makers flummoxed is that many people seem to have the ability to live paycheck to paycheck no matter how well paid they are.
Meanwhile: You voted for it, now you've got it - oh dear it isn't what you wanted, well, you've done it to yourselves! I was struck, most pointedly, when I visited Cornwall, earlier this year ( just before C-19 struck ) & also in 2019 ... how many signs there were up, saying .. "This $_Development/Improvement paid for by EU funds" - oops - And you really were STILL GULLIBLE ENOUGH to believe Brexit would be better? Zero sympathy, at all. At least, here in London & I must admit, in sympathy with everyone in Scotland, we knew it would be shit - but even so, we were not expecting this scale of fuck-up.
Niala @ 644: JBS @ 637
I had already read the Wikipedia article on Russian America. That's why I didn't write that Alaska had never been Russian and used the present form only.
If you take a close look at that article you'll read that "The Russians never fully colonized Alaska. For the most part, they clung to the coast and shunned the interior."
In other words they controlled only a coast line strip of what we now know as Alaska, and there were no more than about 700 Russians there.
In that respect the map showing "Russian America in 1860" at the top of the article is a major lie since it shows vast stretches of Alaska where the Russians had no presence, no control.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_America
Well, take a close look at what I wrote and note "Russia was a colonial power laying claim to Alaska" and that they "sold their claim to the United States". What they might have actually "owned", "occupied" or "controlled" in Alaska is beside the point.
They "claimed" all of it (and more), and they sold that claim to the United States.
Paul @ 649: JBS @ 636:
What happens if Trump gets the executions and pardons mixed up?
Rudy Giuliani is probably gonna' get a BIGGLY surprise.
Niala @ 660: mdlve @ 659
That's assuming they have any money to spare once they've paid the rent and essentials. I have a feeling it's not the case for a lot of UK workers.
Skip to the 21st century section and go to the post-2008 part in it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunger_in_the_United_Kingdom
It is an ABOMINATION that in countries as rich as the UK and the US that any child should be hungry because their parents don't have enough money to buy food.
It is NOT the parents who are wrong in this.
What has the policy makers flummoxed is that many people seem to have the ability to live paycheck to paycheck no matter how well paid they are.
People live for the future they believe in.
With no action on climate change, obvious failures of uniform justice, being subjected to late capitalism especially including watching various supposedly secure pensions get looted out of existence, and the current crop of political leadership, it's not surprising people don't feel inclined to save.
V is for Verfremdungseffekt and all that.
At least, here in London & I must admit, in sympathy with everyone in Scotland, we knew it would be shit - but even so, we were not expecting this scale of fuck-up.
I think the most interesting result of all of this (at admittedly great cost to the public) will be the day of reckoning that will be coming to a lot of UK politicians in the next several years as they can no longer deflect blame for all the screw-ups and mistakes onto the EU - that the public will instead be focused on them.
It won't matter to the true believers and the ERG members, but for the sizable majority of Conservative MPs it is going to be a rude awakening as they will have to take ownership of their decisions going forward.
With no action on climate change, obvious failures of uniform justice, being subjected to late capitalism especially including watching various supposedly secure pensions get looted out of existence, and the current crop of political leadership, it's not surprising people don't feel inclined to save.
It's also difficult to save.
How long has it been (decades?) since a savings account at a bank actually payed any interest, and at a level that encouraged setting aside some money?
Instead you leave money in the bank and find, thanks to inflation, that it ends up worth less than when you put it in.
All encouraged by those policymakers who have built an economy based on consumer spending...
"Grub first, then ethics!" I'm quite happy to be able to refer to Brecht twice in one morning.
It runs deeper and (relative) poverty teaches this behaviour. For instance this paper claims that "under conditions of scarcity, people focus on pressing needs and recognize the trade-offs that must be made against those needs". This behaviour is more rational behaviour under such conditions than any planned-for saving behaviour. It's the Sam Vimes boots thing. You can't buy cheap boots AND save for better ones, because boots are just one of the things you need and once the immediate need is addressed, targeting a future need is a lower priority than other pressing needs.
Also, having whole classes of people who lack the (after all somewhat retentive) ideology that saving is intrinsically morally good is better for the economy, because saving is inherently deflationary. Certainly we have a whole branch of the advertising industry designed to create perceived needs that might become real enough simply due to the societal outcomes... if everyone has a fizzwidget, not having one is a marker for being a curmudgeon, non-conformist or poor and you are penalised for that, whether a fizzwidget is actually any use to you or not.
"But we were specifically talking autoworkers, and while they may not be as well off as they were 30 years ago they should still be reasonably well paid."
Except for those who lost their jobs due to Brexit-inspired plant closures.
Re: ' ... must now treat everything under WTO terms and all the associated paperwork, combined with all the new license/permit/paperwork for drivers to drive across the border.'
What makes you think BoZo is going to honor the WTO [any foreign legislative body's] terms? His entire demeanor to date says: 'Rules don't apply to me/the UK - I'm/we're special!'
Or, he's trying for a trade version of Jerrymandering. If yes, then I'm guessing he's got staff/agents wheedling representatives from the most vulnerable member countries.
Question: All of the headlines that show up on my Google news alerts only mention the trade part of BrExit* but surely there's some sort of defense/foreign aid aspect in all of this, e.g., if the UK gets hit by some horrific winter storm, who can they expect to help them?
It really doesn't matter what the UK does.
Exports pay for imports. Nobody at the export end is going to ignore the WTO.
The cost to everybody else of saying "oh, feck the entire established global trade structure" is both incalculable and vast; it'd take out all the supply chains if you did that, it'd leave you with a trading position you don't know in the future, it'd lead to a large recession.
Which means that the shit of the world will descend on anyone who goes first and tries to give the UK an unsanctioned break on WTO terms. Which everyone full well knows.
It might be the case that the brexit faction has so entirely succumbed to the sin of pride as to think they can profit from this; it might be that they're simply too ignorant to recognise that not all other people are trapped in a system which subordinates their own interests to those of men who went to Eton and Oxford. It might be they're committed something-or-others, determined to bring down the existing global trading framework at any cost.
In general, before the WTO, which it must be remembered has only existed since GATT 1994, those countries with a capacity to retaliate meaningfully when another country inflicted non-favourable trade conditions on them were the ones that got the best terms. Since 1994, the field is more level as the WTO provides a pretty good dispute resolution mechanism that most countries flout at their peril, along with concrete rules that signatories must comply with. It doesn't prohibit tariffs, but does prohibit differential tariffs that discriminate against specific countries, for instance. So when a country like China does use trade terms to retaliate for a political issue, such as the tariffs specifically on Australian wine, it tries to claim it's an anti-dumping measure (it will fail to convince a WTO dispute resolution pane of thisl, but that's not the point). So extremely powerful trading nations like China and the USA do get to flout the WTO rules quite a bit, and they do, often for political purposes.
The UK is not such a state. It's capacity to retaliate to unfavourable trade terms is not great, and infinitely diminished without the EU membership it's relied on since before the current WTO-governed order was in place. In fact it ditched favourable terms with Australia, Canada and other former dominions in order to join the EEC in the first place, something that left those countries in the lurch at the time and forced them to find new markets. It's going to be, basically, a supplicant for the foreseeable future. I was only half joking when I talked about coal upthread... it's about the only way I see the UK getting favourable trade terms out of anyone in my lifetime.
If the UK built a bunch of new coal-fired power stations in Newcastle upon Tyne, it would at least bring the expression "selling coal to Newcastle" full circle...
So extremely powerful trading nations like China and the USA do get to flout the WTO rules quite a bit, and they do, often for political purposes.
Something Canadians are quite familiar with.
mdive It won't matter to the true believers and the ERG members, but for the sizable majority of Conservative MPs it is going to be a rude awakening as they will have to take ownership of their decisions going forward. SURE about that? No sign of similar behaviour among GOP members in similar circumstances, i the USA is there? Remember that people were still idiot enough to support James II & VII in 1715, 27 years after his previous complete failure ....
As I've said before, this is beginning to look more & more like a farcical & expensive re-run of 1685-8
(way back up there)
The Great War more or less caused the Great Depression.
Everybody involved suspended the gold standard during the war; gold functioned as an economic constraint and the just-pre-Great-War global economy was already starting to have deflationary issues as it got too big for the gold supply. Given a choice between ditching the gold standard and not enough artillery shells, everybody ditched the gold standard.
After the war, there's capital slosh as empires disintegrate, and there's a desire to get international trade going again, but everyone knows there isn't enough gold, so reinstating the gold standard isn't done fully; the old rules would cause a massive economic contraction, and the social order has already mostly collapsed. (Even as much as was done caused a significant contraction.)
Something like Black Tuesday becomes inevitable as the global economy operates without sufficient constraint in the system.
There's a well-known and well-studied pattern where nations recover from the depression as and when they ditch the gold standard and write financial laws that provide an appropriate set of constraints, rather than relying on the inherent rarity of gold.
(Since some of the UK insanity(and methods) tracks US insanity(and methods) with several months/years lag.) Any criticism of the scriptwriters for this shall be ignored. Hi-res video(/audio) at the twitter link. (OK, it's a trope and a farce, but it's funny.)
This is at the 12 Dec 2020 Million MAGA March: "As we gather here in Washington D.C. for a second Million MAGA March, we're done making promises. It has to happen now. We are going to destroy the GOP," Maybe 1/5 of a million if one counts MAGA fingers and toes.it's not surprising people don't feel inclined to save.
Nope. Some people are wired or brought up to just live for the moment. They just don't even think about tomorrow. Good or bad.
No sign of similar behaviour among GOP members in similar circumstances, i the USA is there?
Most of the semi rational R's are laying low till Jan 21, 2020. Then they HOPE things will get rational again. I'm not so sure.
I know a non trivial number of people who are R through and through and they are stuck in a brain freeze mode on most of what is going on just now. Many of them Christians who are in serious mental conundrum mode.
Most of the semi rational R's are laying low till Jan 21, 2020. Then they HOPE things will get rational again.
As noted above, there were Trumpanzees chanting "Destroy the GOP!" yesterday. For the lunatic fringe this is summer vacation, Christmas, and their birthday all come at once.
Some people love hating their enemies - and their enemies are everyone.
Some people are wired or brought up to just live for the moment
Insecurity is a big part of it. When you're surrounded by people you can't trust saving anything is the same as giving it away.
It doesn't have to be this blatant, but my ex had family who are drug addicts. If she went anywhere they could get to she had to be really careful because they would go through her bg and swipe any cash or valuables. And she grew up with them around. I just had to accept that she was incredibly protective of her money, and would oscillate between being open to putting money into our joint account and not. She was very understanding of me not wanting the drug addicts to even know our address, let alone visit us. I just refuse to live in a "secure all valuables" way.
At a societal level, given all the stories from the USA of gangs of thieves and highwaymen roaming around stealing money and killing people I'm not surprised the underclass don't see any point saving money. Live while you may, for a cop might shoot you dead for holding a sandwich tomorrow.
Is that like chocolate covered crunchy frogs?
News story yesterday or toway was that there are, RIGHT NOW, 10km backups of semi-trailers at Calais.
Most of the semi rational R's are laying low till Jan 21, 2020.
Thing is, the right -- everybody's right, not just the GOP -- sold its soul to the oil industry in the eighties, when that was less obviously a mistake. (As distinct from wrong. It was obviously wrong at the time.)
As things have progressed, it's more and more obvious that no, really, this fossil carbon stuff needs dealing with. Urgently. Which in a pre-sold soul context, functions as a filter; you get fewer and fewer persons of intelligence or integrity because the oil industry position is not the position a smart person would take nor the position of someone with integrity.
Which is why Canada has some incredibly inept conservative premiers right now, a federal conservative party that's a wholly owned subsidiary of evangelical bitumenites, and universal political mammonism because "less awful than evangelical bitumenism" leaves room for a mort of awful.
General war on facts arises from the same source; the facts say these rich guys can't keep doing what they're doing. So there can't be any facts.
Mid/late 70's, a con in the DC area was winding down on a Sunday evening, and a geological convention was cranking up. Either group could have put up the banner, across a main hallway downstairs, "Reunite Gondwanaland - the Pangea Liberation Front"
And the Wisconsin Supreme Court dismissed another "with prejudice" (meaning they're unable to bring it again).
They're almost up to 60 lawsuits, winning one, and every other one thrown out so hard they're going to have to repaint the wall where it hit.
Not just oil: see also coal. It's really also minerals and extractive industries in general (that's where the rate of return is stupidly out of proportion to investment, the canonical better-than-exponential returns really, drugs and guns are small biscuits in contrast) but especially any kind of fossil fuels.
So yeah for sure. See Australia. I'd say India and China also, but the situation is more complex in both.
The computer version of this is records processing. If the nightly ledger reconciliation run can process a million transactions and your business is generating 1,000,0005 transactions, you're doomed. Maybe you've got time to do something about it before doom overtakes you, but it's an emergency.
(If it's "oh, hey, we suddenly got fashionable, it's five million" you may have just had an unrecoverable success.)
I've had some kind of chocolate coated insect before as a snack. It was ok, my main impression was that the chocolate was cheap and nasty. It would have to be a pretty small frog, I think. I get why manufacturers prefer food codes over descriptions, but it does rather take the fun out of the food. And whether they have codes for "small frog" or "cricket"
given all the stories from the USA of gangs of thieves and highwaymen roaming around stealing money and killing people
Say WHAT?!?!
I think that would ‘the police’, right? Civil forfeiture and death by cop...
shakes head.
I was doing Monty Python....
Sounds like the white wing's view of Blacks.
I thought "Live while you may, for a cop might shoot you dead for holding a sandwich tomorrow." was a bit of a giveaway.
The trouble with satire is that it gets overtaken by reality. I bet Monty Python couldn't buy chocolate coated crickets from the corner shop...
Even if they are "dew-picked and flown from Iraq", although I guess that means something pretty different since 2003 or so.
Thank-you, Mr Stross, for making the distinction.
Bullshitters are more dangerous than liars. For one thing, they feel no need to keep track of facts and ever deal with them, even when it might be advantageous to them. This divorce makes them terrible leaders, and also makes it difficult to make your way back after they've misled you becayse they've tried not only to get you to throw-away your maps but have done their best to convince as many people as possible to react violently to map-reading.
Along the same lines: The bullshitter lives exclusively in socially-constructed reality, where having the most persuasive voice, or the loudest voice, or enough followers willing to hurt you for disagreeing is disposative. This erodes any capability they might once have had to deal with physical realities not subject to those pressures…and provides incentive to attempt to construe all reality as social. (So, for example, the current President turns 'too many people voted against you' into'those werenʼt real votes' and 'those werenʼt real voters', the latter for now in the sense of their not existing or not being eligible to vote but with a strong fore-scent of 'Theyʼre not really people.'. )
And to round it out to three mentions, Brecht turned up in the Guardian quick crossword today.
Gerald Fnord Update ... Dominic Raab is saying "The EU is frightened Britain will prosper outside the EU" - which has simply got to be a deliberate LIE, just for the benefit of the Daily-Hate readers. At the same time he's saying that "negotiations could ( actually ) run past tonight" But the bullshit in this country is so deep & pervading, that I am still afraid we are going to emerge on 1st January, covered in ... you-know-what. OTOH the Irish PM is on the radio, right now, saying that: "We have 97% of this deal agreed, it's bonkers that the remaining 3% hold us up." ( paraphrase )
Your last para is illuminating: The bullshitter lives exclusively in socially-constructed reality, where having the most persuasive voice, or the loudest voice, or enough followers willing to hurt you for disagreeing is dispositive. This erodes any capability they might once have had to deal with physical realities not subject to those pressures A perfect description of prominent religious leaders down the centuries.
Quote from Michael Heseltine:
I believe that it will be seen as a Tory measure and I will have nothing to do with it. This government will be – and should be – held responsible for quite simply the worst peacetime decision of modern times. I know of members of the cabinet who believe this as firmly as I do. I cannot understand their silence.
All of the bullshit has just convinced the world /EU that the UK has lost the plot, caught dementia, now ranting and raving about how everyone are stealing their stuff and being mean to them and the glorious revenge they shall wreck on all!
I had an uncle who eventually died like that.
Basically, there is no point in being around them because then they will know that you stole their stuff. When distant they will know thay you are being mean to them.
No Deal is by far the best way to handle a demented UK!
fjansen As always, Stratford Bill has it: Lear: I will have such revenges on you both That all the world shall—I will do such things— What they are yet I know not, but they shall be The terrors of the earth. You think I’ll weep? No, I’ll not weep. [ "Storm & Tempest" ] I have full cause of weeping, but this heart Shall break into a hundred thousand flaws, Or ere I’ll weep.—O Fool, I shall go mad! ... Goneril: 'Tis his own blame. Hath put himself from rest, And must needs taste his folly. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Would that it were so. WE are going to have to taste BoZo & the Brexshiteer's lying folly
Re: 'The bullshitter lives exclusively in socially-constructed reality, ...'
I don't think their reality extends to 'social' - they're solely in it for themselves. Although language is a 'social behavior' and is usually considered benign, they use it to gaslight and distract from their deeds. A twisted spin on 'the pen is mightier than the sword'.
I once worked for a start up Cable TV / Telco who began by outsourcing their billing to the second largest Telco in the UK. We ran OK for two months then the third billing run took 31 days, the fourth took 33 days and when we go to the eighth we hit the wall. Didn't help that an Ops guy (also outsourced) loaded the wrong tapes and I spent six weeks clearing up the mess and billing getting later and later. Trips to the USA for me and a couple of other staff to get the proposed replacement accelerated, screams from the UK Board, the US Board - my boss pointing to emails stating the obvious from the outset.
Aah nostalgia ain't what it used to be
SFReader @ 705
So, in polite terms he is a solipsist.
Re: '...polite terms he is a solipsis'
Prefer a 'philosophical zombie'. We let too much get past in the name of 'politeness'.
Politeness is a popular gaslighting tool: 'See, nothing to be afraid of. I'm just joking. It's all in good fun. Etc. Basically if the words don't match the behavior, something's really wrong. Both DT and BoZo hide behind smiles, fake amity/politeness.
SFReader @ 705
I meant polite as opposed to vulgar, like the term also used for describing what comes out from the back end of a bull.
Politeness is a popular gaslighting tool: 'See, nothing to be afraid of. I'm just joking. It's all in good fun.
A telling behaviour is when the 'joker' gets all offended when someone does the same thing to them.
What astounds me about watching the American election from north of the border is how childish much of the behaviour seems. Playground taunts and bullying seem to have become normalized across a fairly wide swathe of the electorate.
Aah nostalgia ain't what it used to be
It's certainly not the sort of thing you expect Her Majesty's government to go and do with customs and excise and the rate of imports.
For anyone who is finding this overly elliptical; think of it as "we SHOULD import $Y quantity of food per day and we MUST import $X quantity of food per day"; if it takes more than a day to process $Y quantity of food, the next day starts behind, there's no reset. Depending on the amount of backlog, it takes some variable (and likely not linear) length of time to get to the day where $X amount of food -- that day's "we must eat this much, have to import it" quantity -- doesn't happen at all. The accumulating backlog means none of today happened for food import purposes. Which means the day after is now a whole day (at least!) behind. (The folks doing the processing become less efficient on a diet of one boiled potato, five grammes of salt, and a tablespoon of margarine.)
"Ten hour tailback" at Calais is roughly two thirds of the import stream delayed roughly two fifths of a day; four fifteenths, thereabouts of twenty seven percent, of total imports shifted off the intended day.
I have no idea what proportion of total imports is food (as distinct from car parts) and even less idea what proportion is functionally food (those car parts are turning into cars which are sold to buy food) and no one else does, either, because the terms are unknown. (It's not a quick or simple job when everything is known; national statistics agencies take a couple months to report on a month of economic activity for a reason.)
SOMEONE in Whitehall ought to have a graph, though, with various assumptions; they've got a pretty clear idea of just when Slip Day happens.
(Note the EU built an entire port in France and another one in Ireland because any idiot of a logistician could see this coming. It lacks the character of surprise.)
No sign of similar behaviour among GOP members in similar circumstances, i the USA is there?
Can't really directly compare a GOP congressman with a UK MP given how different the systems of government are, and the resulting responsibilities.
A better example in the US would perhaps be a State level GOP official, who is more responsible for things that directly impact voters - and thus you see a large variation in the policies the GOP pursues at the State level depending on the State.
Take for example commuter rail, a big issue for anyone living near a large city. In the UK that is with your MP, because in the UK London controls almost everything (and is also why no UK government wants to recreate British Rail - the MPs were more than happy when constituents could no longer complain to them about the trains and instead they could simply point to the relevant TOC).
But in the US the federal government has no direct impact with commuter rail other than occasionally throwing some money at the problem - it is a State level issue, with California/New Jersey/New York, Illinois/etc. running the services.
Graydon @ 667:
With no action on climate change, obvious failures of uniform justice, being subjected to late capitalism especially including watching various supposedly secure pensions get looted out of existence, and the current crop of political leadership, it's not surprising people don't feel inclined to save.
And even if people are "so inclined" it's a losing proposition.
In 2020, inflation is running 1.5% in the U.S. My Credit Union savings (share) account is paying 0.15% interest. My "Traditional IRA" is paying 0.45% ... and that's for a member owned, not-for-profit Credit Union.
Savings at commercial banks are an even greater rip-off. Nigerian 419 scams pay a better rate of return.
Playground taunts and bullying seem to have become normalized across a fairly wide swathe of the electorate. Yeah - just watch two successive Mayors of London, playing exactly the same stupid game - to the benefit of zero Londoners, of course.
whitroth @ 688: And the Wisconsin Supreme Court dismissed another "with prejudice" (meaning they're unable to bring it again).
They're almost up to 60 lawsuits, winning one, and every other one thrown out so hard they're going to have to repaint the wall where it hit.
Is that the one where they sued the wrong state - sued Michigan in Wisconsin's courts?
Take for example commuter rail, a big issue for anyone living near a large city. In the UK that is with your MP, because in the UK London controls almost everything
Nope. Within England London controls everything; ScotRail is entirely in the lap of Holyrood (who IIRC are yanking the contract off Abelio some years ahead of schedule: nationalisation is a very real possibility).
This, incidentally, is a classic example of why all those devolved/EU powers being yanked back into Westminster is a very big deal for the devolved governments.
Charlie And is a classic mistake, as it means that "Westminster" gets to carry the can for the inevitable screw-ups, rather than the more local arm(s) of government. The shambles over the recent Stonehaven derailment was entirely the fault of fucking idiot control freaks "Police Scotland" for instance.
SFReader @ 708:
Prefer a 'philosophical zombie'. We let too much get past in the name of 'politeness'.
Politeness is a popular gaslighting tool: 'See, nothing to be afraid of. I'm just joking. It's all in good fun. Etc. Basically if the words don't match the behavior, something's really wrong. Both DT and BoZo hide behind smiles, fake amity/politeness.
Whatever Trumpolini's fake smile is, it ain't amity or politeness
Nope. Within England London controls everything; ScotRail is entirely in the lap of Holyrood (who IIRC are yanking the contract off Abelio some years ahead of schedule: nationalisation is a very real possibility).
Yes, Scotland more accurately represents the US/Canada style of government - but as far as I am aware Greg does not benefit from that more responsive division of government powers thus for him at least the example is relevant.
That said, I suspect Holyrood will follow the London (and others example) of awarding an operation contract instead of direct nationalization or privatization - it offers all the control with none of the direct consequences - particularly not having to take responsibility for late trains/strikes/etc.
(another example of this, around here garbage collection is local government - and it is the one service that is almost always contracted out even if more expensive because it seriously reduces local government employee union bargaining power - voters will accept a strike a lot more readily if the garbage is still be collected, and the reverse of local elected officials like the ability to point to a private company if garbage collection does go out on strike - nothing angers voters more than garbage not being collected).
I suspect Holyrood will follow the London (and others example) of awarding an operation contract instead of direct nationalization
Probably not, is my guess.
ScotRail is currently run by an operating contractor-- Abellio -- to widespread dissatisfaction. Holyrood inherited this arrangement (the contractors change, but not the framework) in 2000. Scottish Labour want to re-nationalize ScotRail, and nationalization is generally popular throughout the UK -- except among the Tories. My guess is that by 2022, when Abellio's contract expires, Scotland will have voted for independence: nationalization would be a clear political signal that Scotland was beginning to drift away from English guidelines, and a relatively low risk gesture within the term of the next parliament (ending in 2026 at the latest).
Irony: Abellio is a Dutch state-owned railway operator, running services in the UK on a for-profit basis. You'd expect renationalising their operation to be popular with the hoo-rah Brexit base ("taking back control!") except it goes against the holy free market, so: gammon heads to explodey.
"For years the UK Post Office denied there were any fundamental problems with the Horizon software, provided by IT specialist Fujitsu. Instead, it blamed mistakes on dishonesty from sub-postmasters, who run most of its 11,500 branches. Introduced in 1995 as a PFI deal costing £1 billion, problems with the system were first reported in early 2000. Hundreds of post masters and other Post Office employees have since been jailed and financially ruined. In 2019, class action civil litigation, brought by 550 sub-postmasters was settled by the Post Office.
"In December 2020 the first sub-postmasters wrongly accused of theft and fraud have finally had their convictions quashed."
Links and discussion: https://www.metafilter.com/189692/Fully-and-robustly-tested-and-meets-the-banking-industry-standards
Charlie The model to follow here is Wales - where the Senedd have, quite correctly told "Arriva Trains Wales" to go elsewhere & are really, actually "Taking back control"
Nancy L British Mis-Management at its best! This story has been running in "Private Eye" for years & they have had a long-running & persistent campaign to right those wrongs. Needless to say, the actual guilty parties have been promoted into better jobs
Nahhhh, this was WI in WI courts.
all the control with none of the direct consequences - particularly not having to take responsibility for late trains/strikes/etc.
In Australia it hasn't worked out that way. Maybe our population is smarter, of more resilient to bullshit (unlikely, we still vote the way Murdoch tells us to). Up here when the trains turn to shit for whatever reason the state government gets the blame. They fund them, they control them, no-one gives a shit which particular type of arrangement they've constructed in an attempt to escape responsibility.
What confuses me is the times when a new road is constructed at enormous expense via a private company, which promptly goes bust because there's no profit, the government steps in and buys the road for cents on the dollar... and everyone blames them for the failure. I look at that and say "state government build something expensive and paid ~10% of the actual cost". But I fear that the reason no-one sees that as a win is that the state govt could have built the thing themselves for less than 10% of the private cost
Guardian article suggesting people in the UK start hoarding food with amusing reddit discussion.
https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/kcc6g4/supermarkets_told_to_stockpile_food_as_fears_grow/
Seriously people, it's like two weeks to go. If you were going to hoard anything you should have it all wrapped Did Covid teach you nothing?by now.
Minor nitpick -- "hoard" implies controlling quantities beyond your plausible needs, or some illicit storage of something you cannot use, or similar. This is a lot closer to "stock".
(Unless you've got a functioning Great House, you nigh-certainly can't have arranged for a reliable food supply on your own recognisance. What you're doing is expecting you're going to need to supplement available supply from stock for the foreseeable. Which is what I've been doing, and I'm in Canada.)
British Mis-Management at its best!
This is actually typical of the behaviour you see when former public monopolies are privatised, and may not be specific to the UK. It's a two-layer thing, right? The actual service areas (which create the value for customers and generate the revenue for the entire organisation) are franchised out, with central management over outsourced functions handled by a different entity. When that entity, which generated no value and cannot take any revenue on its own, is also privatised and run on a for-profit basis, there's a direct conflict between its interests and the franchisees. In other words, it's not doing its job if it tolerates a situation where branches are not run at a loss, so it depends on a steady supply of willing franchisees prepared to go bankrupt for the cause, the cause being the public good that had run relatively pretty well after all before it was privatised.
There are variations, sometimes the central entity is the value generator. The perverse outcomes mostly flow from the underlying logic that competition is inherently wasteful. Functions that had evolved as public services are typically those where there were not sufficient resources to waste by using competition.
Meanwhile in paradise, Energy minister Angus Taylor will today unveil a rescue package for oil refineries.
OGH:
There's a forgotten cliff edge that hasn't threatened an advanced economy for some time: balance of payments. The UK relies on foreign investment in the UK, foreign debt and returns from UK investments overseas to pay for its trade deficit. If a huge drop in exports enlarges that deficit and the UK becomes less attractive for foreign investments and credit, the Pound might drop so fast that it drains the foreign currency reserves of the BoE. In that situation printing more money won't help: the UK will be broke. Even if the BoE avoids this cliff edge, it limits how much the BoE can lower its interest rates and how much the government can spend.
By sheer coincidence the Department of Genuine Satire have released a new video today as well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92t8np88fEI
Our man Angus needs to up his game.
Sorry to say, it is - Amazon owns Goodreads.
Graydon @726 " "hoard" implies controlling quantities beyond your plausible needs, or some illicit storage of something you cannot use, or similar. This is a lot closer to "stock". What you're doing is expecting you're going to need to supplement available supply from stock for the foreseeable. Which is what I've been doing, and I'm in Canada."
Hmmm, I see.
"Are YOU breaking the Law?"
https://www.iwm.org.uk/collections/item/object/31066
I love how the article goes straight for the climate catastrophe angle and the next round of reductions, then moves on to catastrophic weather. (un)fortunately the Australien Governmunt are used to that sort of thing and are resilient.
Note the EU built an entire port in France and another one in Ireland because any idiot of a logistician could see this coming.
That sounds completely reasonable, and quite wise under the circumstances. Do you have any articles at hand that talk about those ports in a way useful to an American who hasn't been watching Irish shipping?
ScotRail is currently run by an operating contractor-- Abellio -- to widespread dissatisfaction.
True - but it is noticeable that Abellio/DB/etc. can all successfully run trains on mainland Europe and only run into trouble in the UK - which says the problem isn't with the TOC but rather with DfT and the Treasury (and the MPs/government that control those 2).
Scottish Labour want to re-nationalize ScotRail, and nationalization is generally popular throughout the UK -- except among the Tories.
It's popular among the public, because they are tired of the inability to effectively blame the government.
But as I said, the MP's in London like it because they no longer had to deal with constituents complaining about the trains to them.
Which is one of the reasons why the Blair Labour government didn't start the process of ending privatization.
My guess is that by 2022, when Abellio's contract expires, Scotland will have voted for independence: nationalization would be a clear political signal that Scotland was beginning to drift away from English guidelines, and a relatively low risk gesture within the term of the next parliament (ending in 2026 at the latest).
They may well, but it won't solve the underlying problems that have nothing to do with the TOC operating the trains currently - late delivery of new stock, antiquated infrastructure(*), insufficient subsidy to allow lower fares, etc.
(good news, Boris's government has decided to cut a £1 billion from Network Rail's capital budget for infrastructure upgrades over the next 3 years).
Nope!
Even were that law is still on the books, I can't eat the shelf-stable things it controls, so, oddly enough, don't keep any on hand.
(Standard humanitarian MREs will kill me horribly. This is part of why I worry about staple food supplies.)
The model to follow here is Wales - where the Senedd have, quite correctly told "Arriva Trains Wales" to go elsewhere & are really, actually "Taking back control"
No, given Arriva Trains Wales is in the past.
The Welsh Government awarded the Wales and Border franchise to KeolisAmey Operations in 2018, who operate the trains as the Welsh Government owned trademarks of Transport for Wales and TfW Rail.
The Welsh Government takes over the operation of TfW Rail in February next year thanks to the collapse of revenue from Covid, and will operate it themselves for at least a while (though I would guess they will follow the central government's lead and move to the whatever Boris and company decide to do with the rail system, currently rumoured to be a concession type system as used on London Overground).
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/businesses-can-show-dunkirk-spirit-by-taking-new-direct-ferry-to-france-1.4420716 -- Europe's ferry companies have carefully planned route increases to Ireland, including building new ferries which are now in service.
https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/inside-brexit-bypass-rosslare-europort-23089074 -- The EU has been funding Rosslare as a ferry port since Ireland joined, since it's the closest port to Europe; the Irish government (having finally acknowledged that the English are that crazy) is now committed to major road improvements to Rosslare.
https://www.supplychaindigital.com/logistics/eu-pledges-financial-support-major-port-dunkirk-project Dunkirk slated for further upgrades. (there's the PNA http://www.pna-ports.fr/web/home.html which existed since long before Brexit and is having a great time with the impeccable logical reasons they should get more EU funding to expand capacity.)
Extend the port of Cherbourg, from back in 2016 -- http://www.bouygues-tp.com/en/projects/extension-of-the-port-of-cherbourg-
Everybody's being axiomatically clear about how Ireland will not be left in a position where they're required to depend on the UK land bridge.
Damian @ 728 That's a parody fake "newspaper" - please tell me? SUBSIDISING oil refineries, really?
mdive which says the problem isn't with the TOC but rather with DfT and the Treasury (and the MPs/government that control those 2). Ah yes, you've noticed - so have we - but the papers & the misgovernment don't want to know.
Oops! My bad - I had forgotten about "ATW" being replaced by "KAO", but the same logic applies, nonetheless.
Graydon Ah I see that the Irish guvmint have some of the same fuckwittery as ours. If they were sensible, they would be improving the RAIL access to Rosslare - as ours are NOT doing for Felixstowe, Thamesport, Dover, Channel Tunnel, etc, etc ....
They (probably) are, but as part of a general program -- https://www.railtech.com/infrastructure/2019/12/20/ireland-to-invest-1-billion-euros-in-rail-infrastructure/?gdpr=accept
It's not like they don't actually need the road improvement, under the circumstances; a whole lot of export is lorry-based because it's all set up to keep the lorry with goods because agricultural specific delivery. Lots of discussion about driver rest and distance from main market access in the discussion of the ports.
US Gov't hacked ...
A Russian gov't affiliated group is suspected.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/13/politics/us-agencies-investigating-hacking-data-breach/index.html
Wonder if DT is going to somehow twist this into how the election was taken away from him. Reminder: Biden's son is under investigation for his Russian business dealings.
Everybody's being axiomatically clear about how Ireland will not be left in a position where they're required to depend on the UK land bridge.
Thank you. I have some reading ahead of me. It's nice to see that someone is handling Brexit competently. What a pity nobody in the UK government is.
@Graydon:
Thanks for those links on Ireland/Dunkirk/Cherbourg/ferries/rail. Very interesting.
Not much actually disclosed; from what is disclosed, it sounds like attribution (to some (unknown) nation-state) is speculative, based on sophistication of the attack. Supply chain attacks are longer-game, and imply discipline and persistence (and competence). Suspected Russian hackers spied on U.S. Treasury emails - sources (Christopher Bing, December 13, 2020) I am seriously intrigued. It is also said to be related to the FireEye attack. (Same underlying supply chain attack.) Quote: Two of the people said that the breaches are connected to a broad campaign that also involved the recently disclosed hack on FireEye, a major U.S. cybersecurity company with government and commercial contracts.
You're welcome!
I haven't been following this issue particularly; there's a lot more. This paper from 2017 does the tedious analysis to compare value, volume, percent of UK trade versus rest-of-world for Ireland, and so on. Feed in "brexit" as a search keyword and you get https://www.esri.ie/publications/browse?keywords=brexit which looks depressingly informative.
Ireland is, by EU standards, bitsy; it seems clear that there's been a general extension of already-ongoing development policy to make sure they're OK post-Brexit in terms of transport integration.
ROTFL! That was brilliant.
Amtrak's that way - they don't ask enough money, and the last time I heard, the GOP halved that. Increase funding, make it cheaper to take the train than the plane? Horrors!
Ireland is, by EU standards, bitsy...
It's certainly not one of the big boys, but you got me wondering and I find that ranked by GPP it's not even in the bottom ten of EU nations. Granted that having a larger economy than Slovakia or Lithuania isn't saying a lot, much less Cyprus or Malta. Being roughly comparable to Portugal or Finland is perfectly respectable. Particularly since the GDP per capita is pretty high.
If I were an EU mandarin I'd be looking for ways to help Ireland too.
I was not meaning any disparagement to the Isle of the Blessed!
I was meaning "Eire is small enough that planning for Irish transport connections in the event of no-deal Brexit didn't have to be a special program, it was sufficient to do things they were already doing only a little more, or in a different order, or along an adjacent angle".
It makes me wonder what's in place to keep those routes from leaking UK citizens and small portable valuables come the day the food supply stays bad.
If I were an EU mandarin I'd be looking for ways to help Ireland too.
Thing is, they have. Ireland has prospered remarkably as a member state of the EU; the EU has invested in them, and the diligence of the Irish has done the rest. (likely also the Irish bias toward education, which seems to be a Celtic cultural thing.)
I much doubt anyone could wedge this into the UK press, but as a comparator of the utility of the EU versus UK management, the trajectory of Irish GDP per capita is a stark indicator. Purely economically self-interested Scots have this powerful argument that EU membership is just flat better than UK membership; look at the Irish.
Amtrak's that way - they don't ask enough money, and the last time I heard, the GOP halved that. Increase funding, make it cheaper to take the train than the plane? Horrors!
Don't follow Amtrak that closely, but like a lot of things in the US budget one needs to look closely beyond the headlines - Amtrak has a lot of support across both parties in Congress so while GOP leaders frequently try to cut funding it rarely happens.
Which isn't the same as saying they couldn't use more money - they really need an infusion of capital spending for replacement equipment at the moment - but things could be a lot worse.
Ah yes, you've noticed - so have we - but the papers & the misgovernment don't want to know.
Yep, DfT so restricts the franchise terms that what operates is what the government is willing to fund - and the TOC's in exchange for extracting a profit (under normal conditions) take the public anger.
Which is why the franchising system may be dead, but it is unlikely to be nationalized - the government still wants the external scapegoats though how well the next system does that will be seen.
Perhaps Scotland will be different - but if the Scottish government does re-nationalize the railway they better be prepared for what will follow - which will either be significant funding increases (and the time lag of capital spending and the actual results) or taking the blame and political hit when the railway doesn't magically improve by the change of ownership.
Some more Americana. I genuinely hope that the UK is secular enough reject an attempted introduction of this class of political insanity. What I Saw At The Jericho March (December 12, 2020, Rod Dreher, American Conservative) There are expected occasional swipes at the left, but I found this piece on one of the pro-Trump events yesterday in Washington DC to be fascinating. Rod is terrified and offended, and worried about the damage being done to Christianity being done by the Trump Cult. [He is not wrong. DJT is an superb wedge. :-) ] " Festivities began with a large American-born Israeli man whose website is Shofar So Great, who says he received a blessing from his Orthodox rabbi to break Shabbat so he could fly to Washington and blow the shofar at the Jericho March, because it’s that important to support Donald Trump. Though he was puffing a bit as he talked — as I said, he is not small — he came through in the clutch, blowing two shofars at once, impressively. Then he blew a special red, white, and blue shofar made especially for You Know Who. He referred to it as the “Trump Shofar.. ... Yes, it is bonkers. All of it. But you would be wrong to make fun of it and blow it off. This phenomenon is going to matter. Divinizing MAGA and Stop The Steal is going to tear churches to bits, and drive people away from the Christian faith (or keep them from coming in the first place). Based on what I saw today, the Christians in this movement do not doubt that Trump is God’s chosen, that they, by following him, are walking in light, and whatever they do to serve Trump is also serving God. They have tightly wound apocalyptic religion to conservative politics and American nationalism. "
Oh, and Alex Jones thinks Mark Zuckerburg is a "miserable slave of Satan". :-) And Catholic Archbishop Carlo Maria Vigano (nutcase opposed to Pope Francis) made a video appearance: "This was a hugely significant development, one no doubt brokered by Steve Bannon."
(likely also the Irish bias toward education, which seems to be a Celtic cultural thing.)
It's amazing how stereotypes change over time, isn't it? Not so long ago, the Irish were stereotypically violent drunks, papists, and too emotional (being Celtic), and this justified the disciplined colonial boot of the English upon their neck to teach them the tender mercies of enlightened imperial civilization. Now, with that boot gone for more than 50 years, they're nerds.
They're not the only ones. A century ago, Korea, the Hermit Kingdom, was derided as the most backward and ignorant culture in Asia, with people who were dirty, ignorant, and basically nasty. And to be fair, some of them were. Something about a small, corrupt ruling class owning most of the land and forcing people into the mountains to fend for themselves might have had something to do with the nastiness. Anyway, Korea's backwardness justified the disciplined colonial boot of the Japanese upon their neck to teach them the tender mercies of enlightened imperial civilization. Now, with that boot gone for more than 50 years, they're nerds.
Shall I go onto Nigeria, India and other parts of the world? I picked on the Irish and Koreans because both have as long a written history as the powers that called them backwards and forcibly colonized them. I know that the shock of Korea's colonization was compared with what would happen if the US forcibly colonized Canada, and I'm afraid the comparison is apt.
Stereotypes can be a bit tricky. Given how much I like Canada, I'd be seriously worried if American pundits started stereotyping Canadians as dirty, backwards, ignorant savages who needed a good dose of American culture via invasion and governance. Hopefully not in my lifetime, or ever.
I'd be seriously worried if American pundits started stereotyping Canadians as dirty, backwards, ignorant savage
I dunno, it sets up up to replay history by shortly afterwards declaring independence, becoming great, then rescuing the US when they fall into decline and forever after treat them as the nation-state equivalent of an indentured servant. But best hurry, the decline seems to be very well underway.
Read as story yesterday about how much money was shorted on a no-deal brexit.
I wonder if Boris has read Rule34?
All-of-a-sudding, in characteristic fashion, & as often ridiculed by "Private Eye" - the Daily Hate-Mail has revesed itself & is now calling for a deal, as the penny has finally dropped ... Bit late, now, isn't it, idiots?
Bill Arnold Divinizing MAGA and Stop The Steal is going to tear churches to bits, and drive people away from the Christian faith (or keep them from coming in the first place). Oh, GOOD, excellent stuff .... the less religion, the better!
Heteromeles Actually, both stereotypes had some true basis. Back in the 1960's Ireland was entirely under the control of the Black Crows with religious insanity, subjection of women, the lot. All gone now, of course.
P H-K Which is why Murdoch & the others are still trying to force "No Deal" Even a paper-thin lastminute "deal" will see them lose out, oh dear, how sad. [ See my opening comment, of course ]
It is misleading to use Irish GDP as a comparison due to the significant distortion effect of them hosting (for tax purposes) the EU arms of several global IT companies. A better measure is GNP, which the Irish government themselves use.
When I was growing up in a fairly poor part of Lancashire in the 80s the locals treated the word "Irish" as a synonym of "stupid".
"An englishman, an irishman and a scotsman..." was the opening phrase of many an offensive joke.
I don't miss the 80s.
Irish people are still killing and maiming themselves over Nationalism and such, it's just not being carried out at the same pace it was for a hundred years after the Republic was created. The hope is that after Brexit it doesn't start up again because they can't stop themselves, apparently.
As for South Korea it was an out-and-out military dictatorship until 1987 and it's renowned around the world today as a corrupt kleptocracy, outclassing even China in those stakes. Most of the democratically-elected Prime ministers and their family members since the end of the brutal military dictatorship have been investigated for bribery and corruption scandals, many of them have been convicted (one commited suicide before conviction).
If they were sensible, they would be improving the RAIL access to Rosslare - as ours are NOT doing for Felixstowe, Thamesport, Dover, Channel Tunnel, etc, etc ....
Greg, how familiar are you with the Irish railway system?
My TLDR level understanding of it is: set up to barely-colonial standards under British rule prior to 1918, then inherited by the initially dirt-poor Irish state so effectively unmodernized until the late 1990s. They're just now -- past couple of years! -- planning a move to electrification. The scale is such that there's no real need for high speed rail (the two largest cities on the land mass are barely 200 miles apart). Moving to a wider loading gauge would be useful for freight but very expensive (there's been a huge property bubble in Dublin in the past 30 years) and with overhead electrification problematic for freight -- we won't see US-style double-decker container trains any time soon. Best bet might be a new freight-optimized line from Rosslare to a new freight yard for redistribution to Dublin, Cork, or Shannon, but that's a big ask.
I'm not sure what the solution is: I suspect in the short term, "build a motorway link road to Dublin" is the least-bad option insofar as it can be scaled up and capacity added (in the shape of vehicles) in the short term and without major upheaval.
It's nice to see that someone is handling Brexit competently. What a pity nobody in the UK government is.
The British government is engaged in a long-term plan to prove that denial is not a river in Egypt.
David Cameron probably shouldn't have resigned. That he did so as a matter of principle reflects less unkindly on him than clinging on would have, but it's his mess and he should have fucking stayed to mitigate it by pointing out that it was a non-binding, consultative referendum and then going back to haggle with the EU some more. He'd have been deeply unpopular with the Fash and his own party's screaming lunatic contingent, but if he'd wanted to he could have said "right, I'm going to negotiate an exit deal, and when it's final we'll have a second, legally binding referendum on whether to jump off this cliff". Cue years of turmoil and another referendum, but at least we'd have had an emergency stop button.
Theresa May could in principle have prevented this by not triggering Article 50 without a fucking plan and by not running a disastrous election campaign that cost her a working majority, but she was too inept at politics (that is: at negotiating with equal or more powerful counterparts, as opposed to using the bully pulpit offered by the Home Office for ragging on crime) to realize how far out of her depth she was.
Some more Americana. I genuinely hope that the UK is secular enough reject an attempted introduction of this class of political insanity.
The UK is majority "no religion", i.e. not even engaged enough with religion to espouse atheism. Not quite as secular as Czechia, but close. (Apparently the UK drives Mormon missionaries to despair.)
This incidentally is way transphobia is such a big thing in the British press right now: the American evangelical funding orgs can't get much traction with their usual homophobic agenda, but they've found a wedge issue to use via radicalized second wave feminists and social media such as Mumsnet, with a cooperative right-wing press who were openly homophobic less than two decades ago. So there's a lot of slush money from groups like the Heritage Foundation going into, for example, the LGB Alliance (which claims to be a gay/lesbian anti-trans group but is actually a homophobic/neo-nazi front organization with backing from Koch and Mercer money).
There's been research by a couple of sociologists sorting out what they call Christian Nationalists from Christians. As nearly as I can tell, Christian Nationalists use Christianity as a trademark and an excuse to go after power but have no interest in the actual religion.
https://www.amazon.com/Taking-America-Back-God-Nationalism/dp/0190057882
Excuse me if I've posted about this here before, but it's partly of political and religious interest and partly interesting because it's an example of using research to get knowledge about something which is hiding in plain sight.
It's amazing how stereotypes change over time, isn't it?
In my case, the expectation that Celtic cultural influences lead to a pro-education bias is old, and arises from the Maritime provinces, particularly Nova Scotia.
You're not wrong about imperial propaganda, but not really related in this case.
I think it's also worth pointing out that what I'd call (for lack of a better name) the American Religion with all its different branches between Mormonism, Evangelicalism, and the Prosperity Gospel, while claiming to be Christian–and bearing a few superficial similarities with Christianity–really isn't.
It's a tangled mess in which some of the beliefs of the English Dissenters (who were themselves already on the fringe of Christianity) got mangled with different portions of US-patriotism/nationalism, capitalism/mammonism, white supremacism/racism, and some more ideologies that are more or less incompatible with the core of Christian beliefs. Add to that mix some 19th-century inventions like Biblical literalism and fundamentalism, and the wholesale rejection of Enlightenment, then carefully stir–not shake, in order to not make the whole thing completely homogenous–, and pour the resulting cocktail in a bunch of glasses, and you get a variety of different, but fundamentally similar mixtures. Voilà, now you have the particularly US-ian religious landscape, the American Religion.
And if you notice that the non-Christian ingredients of the American Religion mentioned above are rather congruent with the core tenets of the Republican Party in general and Trumpism in particular, it's really no surprise who its adherents support.
It still bugs me that they think of themselves (and are thought of by others) as "Christians", though.
I don't think looking at GNP -- https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IRL/ireland/gnp-gross-national-product -- weakens the "which is better, UK or EU membership?" argument even slightly from either an Irish perspective nor a prospective Scots perspective.
Charlie Irish railways did quite well under "Imperial" rule, actually. Two companies in particular, the ones that handled the most important traffic, the GNR(I) which ran from Belfast to Dublin & the Great Southern, later the GSW from Dublin to Cork had good locomotives, competent management & provided several engineers etc to "mainland" British railways. Irish track gauge is - of course - odd. 5'3"" is neither international Standard, nor true "broad ( 5'6"" ), but the loading gauge is more generous than ours. The real problem is Ireland's low population density, which mitigates against economic rail. Let's not go into the wonderful set of Narrow-Gauge lines of 3' gauge, which used to proliferate ...
Correct Cameron screwed up - he should have stayed & fought the corner that the referendum was, as you say - advisory ( It was ) & can we get a better deal. Water under bridge, now.
Apparently the UK drives Mormon missionaries to despair I KNOW - it's great fun! Been there, done that. Not so easy with the other set of religious nutters - poking fun at them gets you into trouble - ask Salman Rushdie.
"Transphobia" - not going anywhere near that one, at all. Yes, there are reactionary fascist arseholes using it as an excuse. There are also genuine women's liberation followers, who are deeply ... "unsettled" by some of the claims - shall we say? I'm not sure that "men" should be involved in this debate, any more than they (we) should be involved in abortion - does that make sense?
MSB @ 766 "It still bugs me that they think of themselves (and are thought of by others) as "Christians", though."
Yes, they bug me too sometimes, but I keep calm and refer to a handy time-based graph like the one in Wikipedia, and the whole thing suddenly seems more rational.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Christian_denominational_families
I'm not sure that "men" should be involved in this debate, any more than they (we) should be involved in abortion - does that make sense?
Nope.
Five thousand years of patriarchy leaves a lingering obligation to explain that women are not a category of property in any respect, and just naturally possess entire bodily autonomy.
The issue with amtrak is that it shares rail with freight, and freight takes priority. Even on what would be the natural routes for passenger rail in the US - the seaboard cities, the lines are about freight.
Which is in large part because internal sea cargo is.. just not a thing the US does. If you want to ship lumber from Finland to Rome, that goes by sea. If you want to ship it to New York from anyplace on the eastern seaboard, it goes on rail, which is just a wee bit nuts.
I'm not sure that "men" should be involved in this debate, any more than they (we) should be involved in abortion - does that make sense?
I have trans friends -- not just transwomen but transmen. Whose mere existence tends to blow TERF fuses in a "this cannot be!!!" kind of way, because it undermines half their rhetoric.
The invective directed against them is truly frightening, and if you swapped it out for "Jew" or "homosexual" it'd be straight out of the Goebbels playbook.
I tend to go by behavioural patterns and duck-typing: if something walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a duck. On the basis of this rule of thumb, the anti-trans campaigners are Nazi-adjacent. And I have zero time for Nazis of any subtype. (As a reminder, the original Nazis' first target for book-burning, in 1933, was the library of the Institut für Sexualwissenschaft. It's worth reading that wikipedia page: it was the world's leading institute for research into "transsexualism" as it was then known. I'm not using the term "Nazi-adjacent" arbitrarily here.)
If you want to ship it to New York from anyplace on the eastern seaboard, it goes on rail, which is just a wee bit nuts.
Not really. Getting containers on and off a rail line is way easier if it is all on land.
And to be honest most of the rail traffic doesn't start or end in NYC. Well maybe ends. In general those huge ports on the east coast deal with things crossing the ocean.
And going with your example If you want to ship lumber from Finland to Rome
There is a lot of terrain in the way in Europe. Not so much in the US. Rail carries way more freight internal to the US than would ever make sense to load and unload from boats.
As to passenger traffic being second class due to freight. Well in most of the US passenger train traffic is a heavily subsidized thing. It doesn't come close to paying it's own way. In the few places where it does make sense there are dedicated tracks for passengers.
Most problems with rail in the US have origins going back 80 or more years ago. There are no simple fixes that don't involve eye watering amounts of money and huge political costs.
I love the passenger advocates who want high speed rail and rail to lots more cities along the routes. Those are somewhat contradictory items.
JBS @713
Savings accounts are essentially negative interest loans to banks, who will then loan it back to you (or your neighbour) at a significant profit. Much of this is the result of high level monetary policy (keep benchmark rates low so bonds will be cheap).
Of the net effects:
Any impetus to save gets redirected into 'investment' - funds, ETFs, stocks, real estate. This is slightly less accessible to most, but does have the effect of further inflating values in the stock markets etc. For better or worse.
Poor people have no meaningful avenue to save in any significant way. Yes, it is possible for the poorest of people to open an investment account. Speaking from (thankfully past) experience, when faced with a choice between adequate shoes for the kids or a pittance into long-term savings which only pay off in decades, the kids get shod. This keeps poor people poor and spending all their money - which is good for the stock market.
Charlie In which case, even more than before - I'm not going anywhere near it. Far too many traps & pitfalls, even with the best will in the world .... ( Look at the awful hot water J K Rowling has got herself into - & I am emphatically NOT supporting anyone here, please note! )
Graydon @ 726: Minor nitpick -- "hoard" implies controlling quantities beyond your plausible needs, or some illicit storage of something you cannot use, or similar. This is a lot closer to "stock".
(Unless you've got a functioning Great House, you nigh-certainly can't have arranged for a reliable food supply on your own recognisance. What you're doing is expecting you're going to need to supplement available supply from stock for the foreseeable. Which is what I've been doing, and I'm in Canada.)
I'd like to add ... "Hoarding" is when you buy items that you don't need because they are in short supply. Buying in advance of need to take advantage of abundance or to achieve economies of scale is NOT hoarding.
Buying a 30 roll bundle of toilet paper to keep yourself supplied for the next 6 months is NOT hoarding. Buying as many bundles as you can cram in a cart, and leaving the shelves bare IS.
Covid has changed the way I shop. I used to run to the store every couple of days whenever I needed something (and also ate a lot of meals at restaurants). Since beginning self isolation I've had to start "planning" meals weeks in advance1 & stock my pantry accordingly. But that's not "hoarding", it's planning ahead.
The only problem I've encountered so far is toilet paper is still in short supply. I buy the Costco bundles of 30 rolls (5x6 pack) and that usually lasts 6 months or so. I'm down to one unopened 6-pack + 3 rolls. It's time for me to re-stock, but Costco still doesn't have the bundles reliably in stock. Since I started checking back in November (at 2 unopened 6-packs) it's been "we're expecting it to be on the truck tomorrow ... check back in a couple of days".
If the quarantine became severe, i.e. 24 hour curfew, I've got enough food & ancillaries to last about 30 days. I've got enough dog food to feed my pup for another two weeks, but that's because I last bought dog food three weeks ago.
1 I made spaghetti sauce & froze the bulk of it. I've been having spaghetti about once a week since February or March. It's almost time for me to make another batch. I made Beef Strogonoff to serve 6 & froze 5 of the servings. Defrost it & heat it up and all I have to do is boil some noodles. But I had to buy all the ingredients for the sauces at one time. My "Chicken Marsala" turned out to be chicken stewed in wine, but it's still delicious.
Rocketpjs @ 774L "Poor people have no meaningful avenue to save in any significant way. "
It depends on whether they have a credit union nearby, or not.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_union
Of course, this is an insidious form of socialism!
SFReader @ 741: US Gov't hacked ...
A Russian gov't affiliated group is suspected.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/13/politics/us-agencies-investigating-hacking-data-breach/index.html
Wonder if DT is going to somehow twist this into how the election was taken away from him. Reminder: Biden's son is under investigation for his Russian business dealings.
China. Hunter Biden's business dealings in China are being investigated. I don't think Biden has had any "Russian business dealings".
The attempt to manufacture a scandal out of Hunter Biden's Ukraine dealings fell apart when Trumpolini's attempt to extort the Ukraine government was exposed.
It seems like Trumpolini cannot believe that everyone is NOT as corrupt as he is.
It depends on whether they have a credit union nearby, or not.
Which conveniently ignores the points raised, which are:
1) when you are poor, you can't afford to buy quality - so you actually end up spending more over a 3 year period on repeatedly buying the same thing than if you could have just had that extra bit of money to buy one quality item. Or you can't afford the upfront cost of that large bulk purchase of food, so instead pay more to buy it in smaller amounts.
2) even you have end up with a small amount of money to save, the "income" aka interest payments are frequently below inflation + costs so you don't actually make any money. I just looked, and a Toronto area credit union, for their "high interest savings account", pays 0.45% - yet if one looks at the inflation rate in Canada over the last 5 years it has ranged from 1% to briefly 3%. To get any sort of account or other service that will earn you above inflation requires an initial investment amount that the poor simply don't have access to.
I am a member of two credit unions; the best they can do is just about rate-of-inflation.
You literally cannot do better than rate-of-inflation without investing in either real estate or the (increasingly unstable) stock market. Both are heavily biased towards large players.
As to passenger traffic being second class due to freight. Well in most of the US passenger train traffic is a heavily subsidized thing. It doesn't come close to paying it's own way. In the few places where it does make sense there are dedicated tracks for passengers.
The reality is passenger trains in general don't make a profit - the density of "cargo" and the ability to pay simply don't work for a profit. Any service claiming a profit will usually be doing a combination of excluding capital costs, using non-rail revenue (usually real estate) to cover the losses, or it is a highly specific cherry picking of a service and ignoring the losses on all the feeder routes / other routes operating a loss that cover the infrastructure costs.
In the US this typically means the North East Corridor is considered profitable (but they ignore the capital costs - the buying of the trains, the repairs to the route (which has a back log of needed and unfunded work), or the new Brightline service in Florida (still early days, but a real estate play around the stations and minimal extra costs given the uniqueness of the freight service in Florida).
Graydon @ 770:
Nope.
Five thousand years of patriarchy leaves a lingering obligation to explain that women are not a category of property in any respect, and just naturally possess entire bodily autonomy.
But once you've accepted that men don't own women; that women should "just naturally possess entire bodily autonomy", what else is there for men to contribute to the debate?
Given how much I like Canada, I'd be seriously worried if American pundits started stereotyping Canadians as dirty, backwards, ignorant savages who needed a good dose of American culture via invasion and governance. Hopefully not in my lifetime, or ever.
When I'm more pessimistic, looking at worldwide trends I don't think the long term future of Canada looks promising.
Looking at climate change, and the predictions for the US, and some things look likely.
The population flight from the north-east to the south will reverse - lack of water, heat extremes, Florida going underwater, will push people back to the more traditional population centres. In itself not a big threat.
But it is the predictions for the food growing areas that are the concern. As the US starts losing parts of the south and mid-west (and perhaps parts of California) as productive food growing they are going to start looking to solve their food security concerns. While many in the US will consider Canada a reliable neighbour for food (though that involves us not just stopping but reversing some seriously short-sighted policies around agricultural land), some will follow Trump's lead and call us a national security threat and look at other options.
(yes, there are possibility other solutions to the food issue - only time will tell if they develop sufficiently or cost effectively - and I did say the above was only when I was feeling pessimistic).
Excuse me if I've posted about this here before, but it's partly of political and religious interest and partly interesting because it's an example of using research to get knowledge about something which is hiding in plain sight.
Agreed, and I'd add that Altemeyer got at some of the same point with his work on authoritarians. The crack about reading the first and last books of the Bible and thinking they understand the middle really does apply.
I think the pithiest summation of the differences among the Christian types is the neopagan distinction between Xtian and Christian. Xtians label themselves Christian but do not practice what's in the Bible, while Christians are actual practitioners of the Way of Jesus. To oversimplify slightly, the pagans distinguish between the people throwing bricks through windows and the people helping to clean up the broken glass, even if they think you're wrong. They've got many fewer problems with real Christians.
A good example of a real Christian is the nun I ultimately got my cats from this year (she passed at a ripe old age, her friends needed to rehome her cats, and I got the email blast and took in the cats). She was a medical missionary/nurse/public health worker in some global hellholes who, after she retired to San Diego, enjoyed recruiting friends to help her smuggle medical supplies to clinics in Tijuana. Wish I'd known her. The two strays she took in are wonderful cats, too, which says a lot about her personality.
Canada's mostly not the short-term solution to America's food problems, any more than Siberia's not really the short-term solution to China's food problems.
The big issue for both is that boreal soils are (with exceptions) crap for growing crops. They're freaking spruce bogs, to put it bluntly. There are definitely some creative things with raised-bed agriculture (google Waru Waru for an Andean example) that can put some boreal lands into farming, but that takes a huge investment in labor. Thus, it's not suitable for putting huge amounts of land under the plow, cheaply and rapidly.
The easiest solution, sadly, is to work hard to stop and reverse climate change, and to stop population growth, especially among wealthy and super-wealthy consumers. This is akin to telling someone that the easiest solution for their health problems is to stop using opioids or meth. It happens to be true in all these cases, but addiction is a scary problem for most to wrestle with. In all cases, the suppliers think they'll outlive their customers, even though they're sampling their own wares too.
But once you've accepted that men don't own women; that women should "just naturally possess entire bodily autonomy", what else is there for men to contribute to the debate?
At that point it's your job to do everything in your power to arrange for men who aren't acting like women possess equivalent and equal agency and autonomy to die poor and unloved. (and ideally, sooner.)
Virtue does not consist of belief. It consists of acts. Some of them are going to be expensive.
The issue with amtrak is that it shares rail with freight, and freight takes priority. Even on what would be the natural routes for passenger rail in the US - the seaboard cities, the lines are about freight.
Yes/no.
Yes, Amtrak share with freight, and the freight often takes priority - though on that score Amtrak is much better off than VIA up here in Canada.
But the underlying issue is cost, and that is often a distortion by the government - the freight railroads pay taxes on the their property, including the rail lines. More tracks = higher property value = higher taxes. So the government distortion helps to encourage a "as little infrastructure as possible" policy that actively hurts passenger traffic. Remove those property taxes and a lot of stuff becomes more feasible - like more passing opportunities, thus fewer delays.
Which is in large part because internal sea cargo is.. just not a thing the US does. If you want to ship lumber from Finland to Rome, that goes by sea. If you want to ship it to New York from anyplace on the eastern seaboard, it goes on rail, which is just a wee bit nuts.
Unless one considers that the US rail system was built for the movement of freight, and thus is very good at it, and that large amounts of the US simply aren't water accessible.
An American logistics person, looking at a map of Europe (and without any knowledge of the transport system), would look at your Finland to Rome example and wonder why you wouldn't take a much more direct rail route instead of the very long, very slow water route. And at a guess, the European would say because mountains, a heavily passenger focused network, and the history of multiple countries making through freight problematic - stuff that never applied to the US side of things.
(of course all of this ignores the reality that your lumber is likely coming from the west coast of the US to NYC).
Unfortunately not. The GOP, AFAIK, doesn't like it - they don't want to put money in ("it should pay for itself", never mind that passenger lines in the last century, at least, were loss leaders for the freight).
Also, a couple times in the last 30 years, Congress told the railroads to give Amtrak priority. Then the GOP gets hold of Congress, and that's gone. That's why passenger service in the US has really bad on-time service, except for the Northeast Corridor (formerly Pennsy and NYC), where they own the trackage, rahter than lease the right to use it.
And the railroads maintain the lines to slower (50mph) freight standards, not high speed passenger service.
And, just to add the cherry on top, all this about "high speed rail". Most passenger service tops around 80mph or so. Meanwhile, look at the schedules from a century ago: 18 hours, NYC to Chicago, and they sometimes made the Broadway Ltd (Pennsy) and the 20th Century Ltd (NYC) under 17 hours. Maintanence fit for, say, 100mph or 110mph would handle a lot, and attract a lot of passengers from airlines, for under 300-400 mi (as the airline pilots' union noted, after 9/11).
I was hoping the EU would come in to rescue us. I figured let the Belgians lead, and handing out Belgian chocolate, they could waltz into the White House with no trouble....
they are going to start looking to solve their food security concerns.
At which point you can't use agriculture.
I could wish people understood more generally is that agriculture works because of a known soil type and predictable precipitation. There's a lot more to it, but if you haven't got that, the other things don't matter. (Also "soil type" is eliding an immensity of poorly-understood essentials.)
Once Kansas is turning back into sand dunes, that doesn't mean a warmer Saskatchewan is more productive; it means field agriculture is gone everywhere because no one has reliable rainfall.
The lead time on replacing field agriculture is "should have started in your parents' time" stuff; we should certainly be putting immense resources into it now. Because it's really looking dubious that we'll be able to avoid the necessity.
But once you've accepted that men don't own women; that women should "just naturally possess entire bodily autonomy", what else is there for men to contribute to the debate?
A surprising number of women have to understand that that men also have the right of saying "no means no." It's not just about sex, but about other situations. If you accept that a woman has an absolute right to control whether or not she becomes or stays pregnant, you have to also acknowledge that a man has the absolute right to not only not have sex with her, but to not be abused by her or others for making that choice. This happens to be because men are notionally at least responsible for paying to help rear all their children.
I disagree. Rail is far less polluting. BNSF advertises a ton of frieght 455 mi on one gal of fuel, and that's diesel.
Canada's mostly not the short-term solution to America's food problems, any more than Siberia's not really the short-term solution to China's food problems.
It would be more of a case of grabbing southern Ontario and the other existing food growing areas of Canada rather than the northern unsuitable areas - which of course assumes we haven't completed covering those agricultural lands with houses and roads by then - and taking that food for their own purposes rather than for feeding Canadians.
The easiest solution, sadly, is to work hard to stop and reverse climate change, and to stop population growth, especially among wealthy and super-wealthy consumers.
Fully agree, and agree with the further comments that it is unlikely to happen.
But it also means, as I've danced around, all countries need to stop covering their agricultural land with industry, houses, and roads - something Ontario is doing very effectively at the moment. We instead should be encouraging/forcing population growth to happen northwards away from the agricultural land - but it won't happen.
Or, as many of us refer to them, Christianists (like Islamists).
Nuts? Why?
Oh, and everything is not shipped to NYC, says the boy from Philly, thankyouverymuch. (Philly used to be the largest fresh-water port in the world.)
Once Kansas is turning back into sand dunes, that doesn't mean a warmer Saskatchewan is more productive; it means field agriculture is gone everywhere because no one has reliable rainfall.
It's more complicated than that - some areas will also get more rainfall.
So it's not accurate to say field agriculture is doomed because no one will have reliable rainfall.
Msb@766 says:
"And if you notice that the non-Christian ingredients of the American Religion mentioned above are rather congruent with the core tenets of the Republican Party in general and Trumpism in particular, it's really no surprise who its adherents support."
Attention to cultural phenomena just for their own interest is okay, frequently fascinating, but too often sidetracks the more effective focus on economic factors as a way to understand what's gone wrong not only with America but the whole world. If a fleet of flying saucers hovered over global power centers vacuuming up every unattached dollar since 1980, it could hardly be more disruptive than what really did happen. Sure there are cultural ramifications, but it's too easy to get all absorbed with side details, to avoid the gut churning despair of seeing the future stolen away.
Focus, people. Remember the Watergate era admonition, "Follow the Money." Not that I'd be any different from our current crop of billionaires if I had that much, I mean, what are you supposed to do, go with the flow, right? But excessive attention to individuals is another distraction anyway, when it's built in systemic features that cause the problem regardless of which specific agents are involved.
The cure isn't to put better people in charge, although that does help stall the apocalypse. What remedies a systemic illness is systemic improvement, modification of the whole economic apparatus, and let individuals line up as they will, like iron filings around a magnetic field.
Ah, yes, "open an investment account".
Privately, in which case you need a good lump to open it, or through work (401k). When I started my last job, they offered that... yeah, if you put a minimum of IIRC 5% of your salary in.
Nope. When I bought a house, not quite two years after I relocated, I was putting 50% of my monthly salary on principle. I'm now retired, and living comfortably on social security... because I OWN the house. No interest going out....
Heteromeles @ 785 "The big issue for both is that boreal soils are (with exceptions) crap for growing crops. They're freaking spruce bogs, to put it bluntly."
Ahem, things are actually worse than you think. The bogs are just on the left side of the map and the Canadian Shield is to the right. The Canadian Shield has just inches of soil or even less, with bare outcrops galore. It has only a sprinkling of muskeg (bogs), in between the hills.
The European answer about "why not freight rail?" is apparently "tunnels".
CP and CNR have been daylighting lots of little tunnels in the Rockies, but you just have to live with them some places. Similarly, the Alps and the Pyrenees and so on have tunnels, they were put in as soon as could be, and enlarging them is a challenge. So an integrated rail network is much, much harder than regional networks to ports, especially because you started with that hundreds of years previously and you've only had an integrated economy for a short time.
There's a lot of river barge traffic in the eastern half of North America, but it for the most part came in with the railroad, not before. It didn't influence development patterns as much as the European version and it didn't happen at all in the western half of the continent with the exception of the Columbia/Willamette. And you've always has a small number of very large settler polities; passage rights have not been matters for cannon, but courts.
So you get a very different result from the distinct development histories.
No, a European would say "Because it is cheaper, and lumber does not go bad nor out of fashion". An ongoing supply line does not care much how long it takes, but it does matter how much it costs, and it is just weird that the US, which has all these world class ports just.. does not use them for internal transport.
It's not -- above a minimum threshold -- about how much rain, it's about knowing when AND how much. It really is.
More rain is only fine if it's predictable. If it's not, you're still not going to be able to keep effective agriculture going. (E.g., recent-ish Mississippi floods; lots of people could have had an excellent paddy rice crop if they'd known sufficiently far in advance. They didn't know ahead of time, so no crop at all.)
Track hay prices. Probably the simplest proxy for rainfall reliability you can get.
In the US this typically means the North East Corridor is considered profitable
There's also the factor that there is not much other choice for moving people along that route. Unless you want to put more airplanes into the sky. But then the airports are at capacity. Or were and will be.
Of course we could talk about adding lanes to the NJ interstate system. :)
Unfortunately not. The GOP, AFAIK, doesn't like it
Again, blanket generalization that isn't true.
Yes, the Republicans as a general idea may be against the idea of Amtrak - but at budget time while a Republican President may propose cutting Amtrak's budget you will get enough Republican and Democrat Senators and House members supporting Amtrak that the budget gets restored (often see the same thing with NASA, proposed budget will have big cuts which disappear once all the negotiations have finished).
Or consider that Amtrak does not get all of it's funding from the federal government - 17 States provide Amtrak funding to run services within their State - like the Republican controlled Missouri funds Amtrak to run a twice daily service "Missouri River Runner"
If Trumpolini or his stooges (the GOP) is accusing someone of something, investigate the accuser, because that is what they are guilty of.
"Hoarding" is highly contextual. I've seen prepping, even in times of plenty, viewed as disgusting.
I expect that if things get really bad, having unusually large reserves will be viewed as hoarding regardless of when you acquired them.
My take is the GOP as a policy does not believe in public subsidies of businesses.[1] So they say $0 but wind up giving $5 due to public pressure.
D's say we must support passenger rail as it is a great benefit to society. Here's $10.
Amtrak had asked for $40.
They really need $100.
So it all works. Right?
[1] Except for when they do support them via crazy rationalizations that come down to we "like" this so here's the money.
So it's not accurate to say field agriculture is doomed because no one will have reliable rainfall.
The problem is the hundreds to thousands of years during which the system will be in a state of very chaotic flux. Sorry.
No, a European would say "Because it is cheaper, and lumber does not go bad nor out of fashion". An ongoing supply line does not care much how long it takes, but it does matter how much it costs, and it is just weird that the US, which has all these world class ports just.. does not use them for internal transport.
But just because it's cheaper to do it that way in the EU doesn't mean the same is true in North America.
Freight cars/wagons in the US are larger and heavier than in the EU, and the trains are much longer - all of this means moving freight in the US by rail is cheaper than EU rail movements.
Add in the rail gets to any city in North America, while water only gets to a small number, and water is at a disadvantage in a lot of cases.
Again, your lumber example. Most lumber in North America comes from the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington State, BC).
By rail less than a week across the US to NYC.
By water - you have to go down to Panama and use the canal ($$$), or go around South America.
There is a reason containers from China get offloaded on the west coast and moved by train to the east coast.
The result is that North American railroads are very efficient (and cheap) and moving large commodities and it is difficult for water transport to compete in many cases.
More rain is only fine if it's predictable. If it's not, you're still not going to be able to keep effective agriculture going. (E.g., recent-ish Mississippi floods; lots of people could have had an excellent paddy rice crop if they'd known sufficiently far in advance. They didn't know ahead of time, so no crop at all.)
This is the point of the huge dam and aqueduct system that California has. Those water managers who know the history of the state know that we occasionally get record floods and record droughts, so the reservoirs are there to even out the flow. It's not a great solution, and it's fairly impractical where there's not a lot of topography to anchor the dams (which is, basically, anyplace left undammed). But that's one solution.
The new crazy solution is to reintroduce beavers, because beaver ponds are really good at groundwater recharge and evening out flow. This means, in turn, rebuilding a lot of agricultural landscape, which means, in turn, that a lot of agricultural subsidies to big companies and laws favoring same have to be reworked, because the chaos that beavers induce requires intelligent responses, something Big Ag and foreign investors aren't good at. But that's another solution.
Even in the UK & not on actual "high speed" services, there are many regular trains that have to get up to 120+ mph, just to keep time, on "normal" tracks ....
Niala @ 777: Rocketpjs @ 774L
It depends on whether they have a credit union nearby, or not.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_union
Of course, this is an insidious form of socialism!
Even a Credit Union doesn't pay interest above the rate of inflation. The only thing a Credit Union does is help the value of your savings decrease at a slower rate than they do at a commercial bank. But that's better than nothing.
I've been "banking" at my Credit Union since 1976.
There IS one avenue for Guaranteed Savings available to poor people, but it's Long Term & it's only something like half a percent above inflation (it uses the same CPI-U that Social Security uses to calculate the annual COLA).
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm
It looks like (at this time) they're paying 1.68% composite interest (fixed rate + variable rate) & the inflation rate (calculated semiannually) is currently 0.84%.
You ain't gonna get rich soon, but if you can put aside as much as $25 a month, you can accumulate savings that pays interest above the inflation rate. And if you can manage to hang on for at least 5 years, there is no interest penalty for cashing them early.
But the best deal is if you can hang on to them until maturity in 20 years (and even better, beyond that to 30 years).
Graydon @ 786:
At that point it's your job to do everything in your power to arrange for men who aren't acting like women possess equivalent and equal agency and autonomy to die poor and unloved. (and ideally, sooner.)
Virtue does not consist of belief. It consists of acts. Some of them are going to be expensive.
I disagree.
My job is to be a decent human being and to treat others decently ... and to do my part to ensure that the society I belong to treats everyone (even the assholes) decently as well.
mdlve @ 787: But the underlying issue is cost, and that is often a distortion by the government - the freight railroads pay taxes on the their property, including the rail lines.
That's something I strongly disagree with. Building the rail lines was heavily subsidized by the government. The rails should belong to government & the railroads should pay rent (use taxes) to use them, the same way trucking companies pay highway taxes (although the trucking industry doesn't pay their share, but at least they pay some).
And the government should be paying for infrastructure maintenance (better than they do now).
For those unfamiliar with the NJ TP... as it approaches NYC it gets bigger. And bigger. Within 10 or 15 mi of NYC, it's in four sections, two going each way, and I can't remember if it adds up to 12 lanes or 16 lanes....
Even in the UK & not on actual "high speed" services, there are many regular trains that have to get up to 120+ mph, just to keep time, on "normal" tracks ....
That would be a neat trick given most of the rolling stock in use in the UK has a max speed of 100mph...
Heteromeles @ 791:
A surprising number of women have to understand that that men also have the right of saying "no means no." It's not just about sex, but about other situations. If you accept that a woman has an absolute right to control whether or not she becomes or stays pregnant, you have to also acknowledge that a man has the absolute right to not only not have sex with her, but to not be abused by her or others for making that choice. This happens to be because men are notionally at least responsible for paying to help rear all their children.
Men should just "keep it in your pants" and that won't be a problem. You let the little head rule the big head, and it's your own fault.
whitroth @ 792: I disagree. Rail is *far* less polluting. BNSF advertises a ton of frieght 455 mi on one gal of fuel, and that's diesel.
IF that's actually true. But BNSF is a corporation and they could be lying about it.
Steel-on-steel rolling resistance really is much much lower than the other options; I seem to recall a factor of sixteen for loads on horse-drawn railroads (with worse rails than modern continuous steel rails!)
So rail really is much more energy efficient than road. The replacement of rail since 1950 is mostly automobile companies pursuing inherent structural economic relevance.
Thomas Jørgensen @ 801: No, a European would say "Because it is cheaper, and lumber does not go bad nor out of fashion". An ongoing supply line does not care much how long it takes, but it does matter how much it costs, and it is just weird that the US, which has all these world class ports just.. does not use them for internal transport.
You've just answered your own objection. Rail for internal transport costs less per ton/mile than shipping by sea. If you want to get a shipment of goods from the East Coast to the West Coast (or vice versa) it's got to go through the Panama Canal. Even shipping along the East Coast or West Coast the cost is lower for rail ... with some exceptions, and where those exceptions exist, shipment by sea does get used. How do you think bulk oil gets from the Texas oil fields to New Jersey's refineries? How do you think oil from Alaska gets to Washington state or California?
If it costs less to send it by sea, it goes by sea. If it costs less to send by rail, it goes by rail. If it costs less to send by truck, it goes by truck.
And for shipment of some goods, costs are time sensitive; how long it's going to take to get there does matter.
Re: ' ... having unusually large reserves will be viewed as hoarding regardless of when you acquired them.'
Like many other folks, I planted a vegetable garden last spring mostly becuz of all the COVID-19 unknowns re: food supplies as well as having something useful to do to keep away the boredom.
Ended up with more tomatoes than I could eat or give away. They kept fruiting right up until the frost. Since the point of the exercise was to grow some food, I ended up with over a gallon of fried green tomatoes in my freezer. Ditto with parsley and spinach. Next summer -- fewer plants.
One plant that I really hoped would grow, didn't: cilantro. Will try again next year.
"Steel-on-steel rolling resistance really is much much lower than the other options"
However that comes at a cost: Steel-on-steel friction is only twice that of waxed ski on wet snow.
Compared to rubber-tyres on a road, trains brake like shit...
I had a geography teacher in when I was in Grade 9 who dedicated a whole period's lecture to how Canada should move its capital to Churchill, MB because it was close to the geographic centre of Canada. He came up with all kinds of ludicrous justifications and benefits that would flow from this.
Needless to say, this lecture was always given on April 1st. Oddly, it was never on the exams.
Reply @ Greyden 800
["There's a lot of river barge traffic in the eastern half of North America, but it for the most part came in with the railroad, not before."]
The most important and influential canal development was the earliest one, which was finished and running by 1821, the good ol Erie Canal! Not to mention the hot cash flow injected into myriad economies that the building and construction of it was, all across that northern west to east stretch to NYC. Everybody got the best damned wages they had ever had, and it was thousands and thousands and thousands of workers, that included everyone from brewers, mule breeders, sex workers, to bond sellers.
Beyond that the Erie Canal transported tons and tons and tons of grain and agricultural products -- and timber -- to the great port of NYC, from where it went all over the south and the world.
On April 9, 1926, the Mohawk and Hudson Railroad was incorporated as the first railroad chartered in New York State), and the first railroad in the United States designed to be powered by a locomotive engine as opposed to horse-drawn or gravity railroads. It opened on August 9, 1831 using steam locomotive deWitt Clinton.
The New York Central Railroad primarily operated in the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States. The railroad primarily connected greater New York and Boston in the east with Chicago and St. Louis in the Midwest along with the intermediate cities of Albany, Buffalo, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, and Syracuse. New York Central was headquartered in New York City's New York Central Building, adjacent to its largest station, Grand Central Terminal.
The railroad was established in 1853, consolidating several existing railroad companies.
whitroth @ 815: For those unfamiliar with the NJ TP... as it approaches NYC it gets bigger. And bigger. Within 10 or 15 mi of NYC, it's in four sections, two going each way, and I can't remember if it adds up to 12 lanes or 16 lanes....
I've never been on the NJ TP north of interchange #7 (US 206).
It is. Esp. with modern roller bearings.
Let me put it this way: to celebrate Fleischman's (major German maker of model railroad locos, cars, etc) has had more than one event where they 200, IIRC, of their 1lb HO gauge locos and pulled an ACTUAL, railroad car.
Here's one I found that they did in 2013 (look at about 8min in).
https://modelrailwayengineer.com/how-many-model-trains-does-it-take-to-pull-a-real-locomotive-watch-the-incredible-video/
Re: '... Hunter Biden's Ukraine dealings fell apart when Trumpolini's attempt to extort the Ukraine government was exposed.'
Thanks for the correction! Not sure how I screwed that up.
Actually this makes for an even more interesting conspiracy theory: Russia probing the US to get leverage on both the new POTUS as well as a 'local problem'. With DT gone, chances are that the US will remain in NATO with which Ukraine has been continuing to strengthen its relationship. (My understanding is that NATO was set up specifically to keep the USSR in check.)
FYI - below is a recent-ish (Nov 2020) piece on Ukraine-NATO relations.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_37750.htm
what else is there for men to contribute to the debate?
Suggesting ways to ensure that birth control, and the knowledge to use it, are freely available to all?
Helping ensure that the children who are born are healthy, have enough to eat, and a decent education?
Which is why all locomotives carry sand, that they spray on the tracks.
JBS @817 Consent (and capacity to consent) is definitely required for all participants, in all cases. This has been a difficult lesson for many people, almost overwhelmingly male.
What I repeatedly emphasize to my sons is that a male's last chance for a veto of any kind is prior to sex. Once sex has happened the most a male has any right to hope for is an advisory role in decisions about what happens in a woman's body. We cannot expect and do not have any say beyond what a woman chooses to allow us when it comes to her own body - just as we 'naturally' expect about our own bodies and decisions.
Aborting or birthing is, must be, a decision that is 100% up to the person who is pregnant. Having sex must be 100% a decision of whomever is participating, with all the information available (i.e. no false pretexts).
This is not complicated, nor should it be. It is up to we men who know that we have no claim on women's bodies in any form to help inform and enforce that basic fact with our fellow males who have not yet figured that out.
Failing to inform and enforce that with other men puts us in the same realm as those who may not see themselves as racist but also see no reason to oppose racism while continuing to benefit from racist practices. And there are plenty of those people around in all walks of life at this point.
At one point, you said 1926; you meant 1826.
And the damn Erie Canal made NYC bigger than Philly, which had been the largest before then.
However, in 1846, the Pennsylvania RR was chartered, headquartered in Philly. From wikipedia, "By 1882, the Pennsylvania Railroad had become the largest railroad (by traffic and revenue), the largest transportation enterprise, and the largest corporation in the world. Its budget was second only to the U.S. government"
I really have to get my model of the Standard Railroad of the World in the basement so I can run trains on it....
Why you want an electric railroad and regenerative braking back into the power system, at least as I am given to understand it. You can use much stickier electric fields.
We just reached 300,000 COVID-19 deaths here in the USA.
Keith
The rails should belong to government & the railroads should pay rent (use taxes) to use them, the same way trucking companies pay highway taxes (although the trucking industry doesn't pay their share, but at least they pay some).
The problem, as you point out, is that most transport does not pay even the direct costs it imposes, let alone the indirect ones. Especially in the US, where it's much (much!) cheaper to buy laws than pay those costs. We see that right now where the covid relief is being held hostage to a get out of jail free card for business.
If they did have to then the relative cost of different options would be very different. Most analyses of this leave out costs that are hard to calculate or politically difficult to discuss (road users directly kill a 9/11 worth of Americans every month ... 38,000 people a year, but twice that many again through air pollution, not to mention 9/11 itself being very intimately connected to fueling road transport). So we end up with weird situations like airports not paying most taxes, and airlines being almost completely exempt. So any discussion of recovering those costs not only upsets the owners of our political class, it has a real risk of directly upsetting them because they fly a lot.
consent is definitely required for all participants, in all cases
One of the problems with these discussions is that we have multiple generations participating in the discussion. I'm not talking age so much as mental models, there are 20 year olds who are still "if she does physically fight me off she must want sex" and there are 50 year olds saying "it is unacceptable that women still rape with impunity". And there are legal system still saying "rape is defined as use of violence or threats to insert a penis into a vagina".
Which means that when someone wants to talk about the ways that women commit rape, that gets "who gives a shit, it's so rare that we choose to ignore it" and "you're derailing the discussion about violent men" and a whole lot of other hostile bullshit that is completely unacceptable but also makes perfect sense for some contexts.
It's also bleakly amusing because the exact same women who have no time for #notallmen will vigorously insist that #notallwomen is a perfectly reasonable and complete response to the complaint.
It's more complicated than that - some areas will also get more rainfall.
So it's not accurate to say field agriculture is doomed because no one will have reliable rainfall.
More =/= reliable.
Talking to farmers when I worked as an ag-tech, most years they were more worried about getting rain at the right (or wrong) time than the quantity.
Heteromeles @ 810: "The new crazy solution is to reintroduce beavers"
You said it! Beavers do what they want, not what you want or what you think they should logically do.
I have beavers in the creek immediately to the North of my property and they are incredibly stupid animals. A friend, who lives about 200 miles East, also has beavers and confirms what I've seen.
The beavers chew up trees and leave them there, half cut. They eat newly planted saplings which are totaly useless for building their homes. They cut down trees and leave them there in the forest. In some cases they have even cut trees which fell directly on them.
I would very much like to know how they hope to logically plan in any way the re-introduction of beavers.
I agree with JBS. The rails should belong to the People, not the companies, and all the companies should pay for maintenance.
It was idiotic for the Pennsy and the NYC to have tracks in, for example, OH and IN, where they ran parallel to each other, to the point where the passenger trains would race each other.
Looking at the satellite image, it looks like it maxes out at 14 lanes.
Beaver ponds are good environments for trout fry.
Beaver dams stop direct rush-to-the-sea runoff and the associated v-shaped straight stream channels. (The folks doing the reintroduction in western regions have had to drive fence posts into the stream bed and weave some branches into the posts; it's a terrible dam, but the beavers improve it into utility, where the could not start a dam in the existing stream.) This gives you a meadow with a water supply; it gives you trees; it gives you immensely more water retention. It does good things for a lot of native species that evolved with beaver ponds, not just the trout.
And, yes, beaver are a large rodent and not real bright. They'll take a tree down, go, "meh, didn't fall right" and ignore it. They eat bark (girdling trees, which kills them) and they eat twigs outright. But the net effect of the relentless rodent diligence is a much wetter, ecologically richer landscape which floods more decorously.
The Chesapeake & Delaware Canal became operational in 1829(ish), and certainly helped with shipping between Philly & Baltimore. Still heavily used to this day.
"I would very much like to know how they hope to logically plan in any way the re-introduction of beavers."
It's already under way in the UK. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-54972840
A couple of posters have mentioned freezing as part of their preparedness strategy.
Just a note, if you're using freezing, you should have a generator or equivalent. The power may not stay on. The generator has to be sized for the start load of the freezer, often multiples of the rated draw.
https://www.alternet.org/2020/12/proud-boys-2649481985/
I keep looking at the "pinochet did nothing wrong" t shirt on that guy and then I did a bit of searching and discovered this apologia from the WSJ (paywalled) so apparently it's not just the outright fascists who support him. Does not bode well for the US that there's widespread support for someone who murdered thousands of their own citizens after taking power via a military coup.
https://keywordtee.com/tyler-gadsden-pinochet-did-nothing-wrong-shirt/
Generators are hard to keep running, and most are not rated for continuous use. Which is often ok for a chest freezer, but not always. Many modern freezers have control electronics that are very sensitive to electrical spikes, so you may need a power filter or even a UPS between generator and freezer. You should test your setup in off-grid mode before you commit hundreds of dollars of food to it.
I'm in the process of designing a system to support a chest freezer and it's slightly non-trivial. It's not just the start load, it's that the most likely time for grid failure in Sydney is a hot summer day, or more accurately a hot summer evening. So I have to plan for a system to get me though a night that drops from 45°C to a low of 35°C before the sun comes back. That means finding a chest freezer where the evaporator coils are not in the walls, so I can superinsulate the freezer box. Which is really starting to look like a commercial freezer.
Ended up with more tomatoes than I could eat or give away. ... Next summer -- fewer plants.
You think this is odd? When I was growing up in the 60s in far western KY lots of people had small gardens. And as things ripened and folks discovered just much extra they had the "great vegetable giveaway"[1] would begin. You'd go out your door in the morning and discover a paper grocery bag or two with tomatoes, green (string) beans, okra, and assorted other things. An anonymous donation from an eager grower.
They had to do it this way because if they asked who wanted what they would never get rid of it all. Anyone want a grocery bag full of green beans. Let's call it 5 gallons or more.
Of course us kids got a chance to learn how to "break beans" and shell lima beans.
[1] I heard it called this on an airing of "Prairie Home Companion"'s Lake Woebegone story at some point in the 90s. He just named what had been happening for decades.
And, yes, beaver are a large rodent and not real bright.
Not an expert on beavers by any means but it is my understanding that like the late Robert Moses of NYC road building infamy they just don't know when to stop. They just keep building their dams bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger until something fails.
Mike Collins @ 842 Re: re-introducing beavers: "It's already under way in the UK."
I note that the farmers are worried and there are few soothing words for them!
I would like to see the ecologists re-introduce wolves in my area, to eat the beavers in a natural way. At least the wolves don't eat living trees like the beavers do.
But seriously, I wish the beavers could go to happy homes:
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=justin+beaver
Re: 'You'd go out your door in the morning and discover a paper grocery bag or two with tomatoes, ... An anonymous donation from an eager grower.'
I'm new to this neighborhood so all my neighbors already know just how much to plant to get the crop they want - more or less*. But, it'd be great if a few of us could coordinate our plantings.
And options approach zero as a limit: the electoral college has voted - there may be four votes from one state left, but California rolled in with 55 votes, and it's Biden, 302 Trumpolini, 232.
if they asked who wanted what they would never get rid of it all.
Yep. Sign out the front "take as much as you want, I have more garden out the back" and all i see is occasionally a few leaves taken off the silverbeet etc. There's lemons rotting on the ground because the bloody dwarf lemon tree went all in for spring and had ~100 lemons all ripen in the space of a week. It's supposed to be a continuous fruiting variety...
Rbt Prior Suggesting ways to ensure that birth control, and the knowledge to use it, are freely available to all? Helping ensure that the children who are born are healthy, have enough to eat, and a decent education? Simples - hang ALL the priests!
Niala Beavers have been successfully reintroduced to the UK .... Their dams & pools are amazing for water retention ( less flooding) & for all the other forms of life that use those pools Fish / Otters / Birdies / insects etc ...
Vegetables ... yes well. I take (some of) my surplus to the local food bank, because there are some people who really need it.
I would very much like to know how they hope to logically plan in any way the re-introduction of beavers.
It's actually not that hard. The bigger question is how to get the people up the educational curve so that they get their permanent structures out of flood plains in the first place. Once they're out of the flood, the randomness of beaver systems matters a bit less.
That said, the real thing about beavers is that a fully beavered landscape stores about as much water in the ponds as a reasonably sized hydropower dam. Since much of that water is groundwater, there's a bit less loss to evaporation. Unfortunately, if people have been stupid about over-irrigating, fracking, or doing other thoughtless things to contaminate the local aquifers, groundwater's not the perfect solution. But then again, neither are pig factory manure lagoons or coal ash heaps.
Thing about beavers is that you don't need mass quantities of concrete, you just need aspens or whatever else the beavers will eat. That's a bit more sustainable, and not just for wildlife.
Rbt Prior Suggesting ways to ensure that birth control, and the knowledge to use it, are freely available to all? Helping ensure that the children who are born are healthy, have enough to eat, and a decent education? Simples - hang ALL the priests!
Niala Beavers have been successfully reintroduced to the UK .... Their dams & pools are amazing for water retention ( less flooding) & for all the other forms of life that use those pools Fish / Otters / Birdies / insects etc ...
Vegetables ... yes well. I take (some of) my surplus to the local food bank, because there are some people who really need it.
Meanwhile Cotton Slavery in the fields is NOT DEAD - fucking Han slavemasters, this time.
so all my neighbors already know just how much to plant to get the crop they want
Growing up where I did many family were 3rd or 5th generation farmers from the area. I think maybe it was a result of so many growing up during the depression. Planting is cheap. Not having enough is really hard. So everyone seemed to plant extra.
Moz "Which means that when someone wants to talk about the ways that women commit rape, that gets "who gives a shit, it's so rare that we choose to ignore it" and "you're derailing the discussion about violent men" and a whole lot of other hostile bullshit that is completely unacceptable but also makes perfect sense for some contexts.
It's also bleakly amusing because the exact same women who have no time for #notallmen will vigorously insist that #notallwomen is a perfectly reasonable and complete response to the complaint."
Um. Think I made it pretty clear in my original post that ALL circumstances require consent. It isn't much of a stretch to also say that ALMOST all sexual assaults are committed by men.
Not sure how that becomes a springboard for dismissing antirape activists. This really isn't a gray area, I am usually not absolutist about anything, but consent is one of those things that is non-negotiable in my world.
The indisputable fact that a percentage of the people who commit sexual violence are women is not grounds for a dismissive 'bleakly amused' trashing of women opposed to male violence against women. All the violence sucks, in my opinion, I'm surprised and appalled that we are still debating it at all.
Heteromeles @ 853
Don't forget that to get that "fully beavered landscape" you had to start with a fully forested landscape to begin with so that even in their inefficient way the beavers could end up building their dams.
A beaver can kill a young tree in a few minutes. It took years for it to grow.
I had a single, big willow on my property and a beaver killed it and left it barely standing and rotting away. There were only a few inches left holding it up.
Yes, which is why I said "or equivalent".
That could be a dumb generator charging a battery bank that powers a pure sine wave inverter, or an inverter/generator (my solution) or solar/battery bank/inverter or dewar flask or something else.
Just worth thinking "if the interconnectors go down and that destabilised the grid into a black start, which might be three days, how will I cope?". The answer had better not be "I'll eat out" or "I'll pick up something from Tesco".
BTW if you're setting up a superinsulated box and space is in any way important, it's worth Googling "vacuum insulated panel".
I'm new to this neighborhood so all my neighbors already know just how much to plant to get the crop they want - more or less*.
Experience helps (as does getting realistic with how much effort you are willing to put into the garden), but the knowledge that you can just go to the grocery store to make up any shortfalls also plays a factor.
On the other hand, if you do have too much you can always compost it to return it to the land.
Waterborne transport does exist in the US, but not where you have been looking.
The intercoastal waterway is centered around the Mississippi-Missouri rivers and along the Gulf Coast with a connection to the Great Lakes at Chicago. Like US railroads it is dominated by large-scale bulk transport. And there is an immense infrastructure maintained by the US Corps of Engineers.
Think I made it pretty clear in my original post that ALL circumstances require consent.
In my experience those statements are also made by people who define rape as 'what men do", so it really doesn't matter how clear you think you're being, unless you name names the statement is in practice ambiguous. Sorry, but that's how it is.
It isn't much of a stretch to also say that ALMOST all sexual assaults are committed by men.
How do you know?
When it's either culturally or legally impossible for men to report sexual assaults by women that precludes proper data collection. We end up back with the surveys asking random people "have you ever had sex when you would rather not because your partner was insistent" and even that is culturally difficult to say yes to for some men. Designing those questionnaires is hard, and very often they are designed such that they under-report certain types of problems (by, for example, giving a gender-neutral survey mostly to women, or having women administer it).
There's one academic I used to read the blog of who posted such a survey, and when I reported that it was excellent except for the completely unnecessary "by a man" in two places she sent me an angry email and blocked me from commenting on her blog. She wasn't even willing to risk having those reports contaminate her survey responses, despite previously adding all the required gender-neutral language and even mentioning that women can sexually assault men. She was determined to produce academically respectable statistics showing that woman-attacks-man events are vanishingly rare.
consent is one of those things that is non-negotiable in my world.
Ah, so you've never raised children or had pets, then.
I'm quite serious. My first stay in an anarchist commune was quite interesting in many ways, not least because I'd never been exposed to consent-based parenting before. It wasn't so much the discussions they had with their kids about doing things the kids didn't necessarily want to do, it was the little things like "giving grandma a hug" (nonono, you can suggest but you can't demand) and one that sticks in my mind: carrying an infant. Want to put it down. Offer to pass it to another adult... reprimanded. First you ask the infant, then you ask the adult.
I've seen that in exactly one household in my life. Every other person I've met has been trained from birth that their consent is irrelevant if the person violating it really loves them.
It's exactly equal to the statistically well supported (at the time) idea that there's no such thing as rape in marriage. You don't allow married women to report it. If they insist you pretend to take the report and then ignore it. Then you can comfortably point to statistics to say it doesn't happen so there's no need to make it illegal.
Can I clarify: parenting inevitably means doing things to kids that they do not consent to. The question is how far you go in either direction.
I hope it's obvious that your kid does not get to run into the burning building to look for their stuffed toy, no matter how much they want to. But somewhere up that line every parent will cross over to "sure, if they don't want to they don't have to". But it varies, from "having sex with grandpa" to "getting medical treatment" or whatever. We can reasonably differ on the details, I think, without rejecting the idea that there's a continuum of acceptable positions.
Pets likewise, with the caveat that we have to accept that not everyone believes their consent matters or even exists.
There is a trivial way to preserve the contents of a broken freezer - as long as it isn’t auto defrost. I had to use this in my time as pathology R&D coordinator in a medical lab. We had long running projects which needed secure storage of samples for years. Nowadays temperatures can be monitored remotely but this was in the 1990s. Just use freezer pack as ballast. I never bought these because the lab had lots of deliveries of frozen reagents with freezer packs to keep them cool. You lose space in the freezer but gain security. You can even make your own with plastic bottles of saturated salt solution. I tested this system with samples about to be incinerated and they were kept below freezing over a summer ban holiday in Leeds so it should be OK overnight in Australia if your freezer insulation is good. If the freezer is auto defrost you can’t do this because you get a massive build up of ice.
"Many modern freezers have control electronics that are very sensitive to electrical spikes, so you may need a power filter or even a UPS between generator and freezer."
Or you could just rip out the electronic shite and replace it with an ordinary capillary thermostat, which would be vastly cheaper and not subject to failures from such causes as slugs crawling over the circuit board or spiders spilling fly juices on it.
It would also be a whole lot easier to hook up to an automatic start/stop device so the generator isn't running when the compressor isn't.
Keeping the generator operational shouldn't be hard. You've got an advantage to begin with in that the need to oversize it to cope with starting the induction motor means it will only ever be under light load in continuous operation - not to mention that unless it's a sodding big freezer you'll be hard put to find a generator worth the name that isn't already well oversized for it.
I don't know what it's like where you are but in Britain there are plenty of second hand 4kVA or thereabouts generators with Petter A-range engines around for a few hundred quid. Mostly without the electric start option although some have it. They are noisy and the tin shroud that directs the cooling air around the cylinder shakes itself to pieces, but they are extremely robust, can take a ridiculous amount of abuse and ought to last far longer than you'll ever run it for. They go all day every day on building sites without giving trouble.
if your freezer insulation is good.
I'm struggling a little because of the modern fascination with putting the evaporator coils under the skin of the freezer. If you put insulation over those you start having problems. But they do make the design much easier and more robust for the other 99% of customers, so I understand why they do it :) But I really don't want to count on buying one, skinning it, moving the coils round, and not breaking it in the process.
Likewise "better than average insulation"m which you can find, but generally only in conjuction with funky motors/compressor designs that rule out Pigeon's brutal "cut it all out" approach to electronics (brushless motors are much more efficient than induction ones and they're variable speed so you can soft start them in software)
Beavers do what they want, not what you want or what you think they should logically do.
We are the beaver…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWX8uWf2LhQ
Like US railroads it is dominated by large-scale bulk transport. And there is an immense infrastructure maintained by the US Corps of Engineers.
In the US the Ohio, Mississippi, and Missouri Rivers are basically a series of lake separated by dams/locks. And they do function as a large scale transportation system. Not sure if Europe has anything like these.
https://www.reddit.com/r/tuglife/comments/5h8s3z/the_towboat_austen_s_cargill_prepares_to_flank/
Crappy jobs on the barge & tow boats (even though most push) but the money is good. You're away from home a lot but can get back for emergencies easier than off shore rigs.
You can even make your own with plastic bottles of saturated salt solution.
I just put used soda / water bottles refilled with water in the bottom of our fridge to fill up the empty space. (We have a second to handle when they need to be removed.) Drives my wife nuts. Looks way too disordered to be correct. And the bit about how it saves power, well, I think she believes I'm making it up.
Buy some batteries and run the freezer off the batteries
Use the generator to charge them when they get low
That’s how most off grid installs I have see work
Couple of newer links on the activity involving compromised (through a supply chain attack) SolarWinds software since Spring 2020 (according to the timeline from forensics). This is SciFi material. :-) Dark Halo Leverages SolarWinds Compromise to Breach Organizations (December 14, 2020, by Damien Cash, Matthew Meltzer, Sean Koessel, Steven Adair, Thomas Lancaster, Volexity Threat Research) FireEye attributed this activity to an unknown threat actor it tracks as UNC2452. Volexity has subsequently been able to tie these attacks to multiple incidents it worked in late 2019 and 2020 at a US-based think tank. Volexity tracks this threat actor under the name Dark Halo. ... Volexity believes that Dark Halo is a sophisticated threat actor based on the following characteristics of their attacks: ... [click link if you want to read the list] During the investigation Volexity discovered no hints as to the attacker’s origin or any links to any publicly known threat actor. (Is their name related to High Altitude Military Parachuting, or something else? Or perhaps the inferred halo of invisible material (dark matter) that permeates and surrounds individual galaxies, as well as groups and clusters of galaxies? Whatever. :-)
and a FireEye writeup with some details:
Highly Evasive Attacker Leverages SolarWinds Supply Chain to Compromise Multiple Global Victims With SUNBURST Backdoor (December 13, 2020 | by FireEye) The campaign is the work of a highly skilled actor and the operation was conducted with significant operational security.
When I said "designing a system" I meant coming up with exact values and specific things I can buy. I did not mean "can I just buy a solar panel and plug it into the wall or what?". I'm sorry that you got that impression from what I wrote.
Oh I am sorry , did t realize there was DESIGN going in, I thought you just had some problem you were trying to solve. Have at it then 😂
Todays MegaProjects video is about the Eire Canal... in case some of you prefer to have someone read a script to you ;)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTDHeSCDqig
(np unholyguy, thanks)
The issue being that, even though women are roughly as likely to be abusive as men, patterns of escalating violence, rape, et cetera, are less common. I'd guess this is mostly rooted in physical disparities. As such, societal issues, like rape or beating people to death, tend to happen more often with men. So, female violence is less important, on average. Laws tend to be structured to deal with the averages.
Now, pretending that this is a uniquely maie problem rather than largely a lack of opportunity is likely not grounded in reality.
My, I'm cheery today.
It might be that I've watched similar patterns with gay men and with women with access to any sort of power imbalance.
It seems hard to do consent-based parenting when our youngest has a nigh irresistable interest in plummeting from high places. sucking on electrical outlets, and anything sharp or knife-like she can obtain. That and, of course, other people's eyeballs. I'm impressed with those parents. (Unless they ended up with annoying little monsters. Which, admittedly, one of my cousins pretty much has with a similar scheme.) There's also, eg, vaccination and diapers.
Freedom for minors is a good thing in the abstract - and seems to work well with the oldest. But, the youngest is still preverbal and her freedom is fairly restricted.
On more adult levels, consent is not bullet-proof. In particular, the tendency of young adults to seek close physical proximity while indulging in judgement-reducing pharmaceuticals seems problematic. Relying on consent assumes levels of self-control that are not likely realistic for all people.
It seems hard to do consent-based parenting
As a non-parent I try to limit my involvement to expressing admiration that parents have somehow managed to both keep from murdering their children and kept their kids from killing anyone including themselves. Consent-based parenting adds a layer of difficulty, but if you don't do that you're not going to score very well at the parenting olympics, are you now?
The consent-absolutism just triggered me a bit.
On the happier side, two people I know well once confessed to me that sometimes they would wake up in the morning and they'd clearly had sex in the night, just neither of them could remember it. They're a couple, now married, so their approach was "oh we both consent in general so that's fine" but technically both of them are guilty of somnamburape. Or one of them, or perhaps neither, depending on how you define consent.
In some ways, the concept of a minor who consents to something is an oxymoron. We often define a minor exactly by their incapacity to give legally binding consent. Sex is just one area where this applies. Any contract entered into by a minor is voidable, at least in Australia. The minor can void it themselves when they reach majority or their parent or guardian can beforehand. Consent requires legal capacity, more or less, and there are several other things that we don't allow people to do without that.
On the other hand I can see the trend toward assisted decision making is relevant to this concept and I can see how parents could treat certain kinds of decisions that way. I think it's misguided to call it "consent" and that it would be better to frame it as decision making, and I don't think it applies unless you can realistically explain the decision to the child in a way they can understand to a certain standard. It's an interesting concept along those lines, but I think it's different to what the parents you are describing have in their heads about what they are doing (which isn't wrong for being different, just different to how I'd imagine it working realistically).
I'm not a parent either and think (for me) it's become clearly morally wrong to become one, though I'm not sure how far back that realistically goes. Not something you judge or hold other people to, obviously, but definitely a big "go forth and multiply" to anyone who thinks you're morally wrong for not doing that.
Sigh. I thought it was obvious I was talking specifically about consent in sexual matters. Clearly I need to be more explicit.
So let me try. In regards to sexual interactions, I am a consent absolutist. Without informed consent it cannot/should not happen. If that triggers you Moz then I'm sorry, but I don't see many alternatives (gamesmanship with edge cases is hardly relevant here).
That has buggerfuckingall to do with raising children, not least because they are children and legally incapable of sexual consent. Other than a straw man to thump I don't see how childrearing is relevant in a discussion of sexual consent.
I'm not going to expose my personal history here, but I am extremely and personally aware that sexual violence can happen to men. That does not for one second reduce men's obligation to work towards reducing male sexual violence towards women. I am again astonished and appalled that this is a debating topic or a reason to air grievances from some obscure academic debate.
Though as with most things, you have to teach children for years. For consent in many contexts, it's not like they develop sense for consent immediately they turn the legal adult age.
For example, consent for sex is also related to consent over their own bodies, and that "hugs and kisses for grandparents" thing is very much something children can consent on early on. It's also, in my humble opinion, a good way to teach consent on who is allowed to touch you and how, without it being about sex explicitly. Also, "consent requires legal capacity, more or less"? Not in my opinion - I can't for example go around hugging non-adults, they still have their rights but can give consent for hugs, for example. (I'd expect people I don't know not to give their consent for hugs.)
Obviously you have to teach stuff like "medical personnel are usually given consent when they are treating you", but even in that context I think it's important to teach that consent can also be not given. (Currently in the context of vaccinations it's very annoying that people can say they won't be vaccinated, but I still think it's usually better to have the option.)
Contracts... well, in Finland there's some grades, it's not like "children are completely unable to make contracts and adults are fully able", but there's some murkiness. No loans allowed, though. Also, most people would like to educate their children about handling money and contracts before they're adults, there's more time for that in that way.
And of course "consent" is a word with many meanings, so I think some of the discussion here is about different meanings in different contexts.
British Beavers
David L Oh dear, you really don't know, do you? In Europe there is a network of canals taking 2-3000 tonne barges from the netherlands & belgium all over Germany, Poland, to Russia & now onto the Danube... Start here!
That does not for one second reduce men's obligation to work towards reducing male sexual violence towards women.
Even when that means involuntary* exposure to rapists and pro-rape activists? And specifically, the sort of pro-rape activists who go out of their way to deny that sexual violence against men exists, or is a problem, or is anything more than a deflection attempt that must be vigorously stamped out... much as you're doing now.
You can fuck right off. I have no obligation to do anything, anything at all, to stop other men doing whatever they like wrt sexual violence against women.
I mostly agree with this, and I was talking about "them actually giving legally binding" rather than "teaching them about" consent. Teaching them there are things they can say "no" to is especailly important. I like to think these are things that people do in fact learn before they need to know them, but I agree this isn't something to take for granted.
And I agree about vaccinations. I think everyone who can should, but making it mandatory has unintended consequences and excludes those who can't, simply because doing this reverses the onus and requires them to prove their risk of harm, something we don't do for most things. Those who lobby for and implement mandatory regimes are generally the sort for whom, really, underneath it all, are not interested in public health at all and are interested, mostly, in punishing difference. Antivaxxers are a real problem and they create risk when they convince enough people, but letting go of reason isn't an effective counter to that.
consent for sex is also related to consent over their own bodies, and that "hugs and kisses for grandparents" thing is very much something children can consent on early on. It's also, in my humble opinion, a good way to teach consent on who is allowed to touch you and how, without it being about sex explicitly.
That's an approach I'm familiar with and comfortable with. Sex isn't a separate compartment in people's lives, it's a continuum from an admiring glance to whatever counts as extreme sex for you. Being involuntarily hugged isn't ok, and saying "it's not sexual" doesn't make it ok.
It seems much more plausible to me than the more common "your consent means nothing. NOTHING, I say, NOTHING" for the first 15-20 years of someone's life then one day you're an adult. You get to draw boundaries. But only around sex. You still have to celebrate Christmass with the family and let Aunt Doris give you the big slobbery hug she likes. How is that even supposed to work for the people around you, let alone for you? My experience of that is that it takes years of hard work and push-back to train "Aunt Doris" that she has to ask, and if she gets a no she has to respect it.
Imagining that someone who's had 20 years of having to put up with it is going to suddenly turn round and say no, then make the "no" stick, is fantasy. Pretending that someone who can't do that can make "no" stick when it comes to sex...
On over-production of garden veg:
I grew up on Guernsey, which has a long tradition of "hedge veg". If you grow a few too many courgettes or cauliflowers, or even just flowers, then you can put them out in an unmanned stall at the front of your house with a cash box, price list, and payment by the honour system.
Since it was part of where I grew up it always looked perfectly normal and logical to me. I was surprised to find that other places don't do this.
[[ link fixed - mod ]]
I've seen this elsewhere but not often, and when I have seen it, it's in places where there are relatively few passers-by who aren't local. Villagers rather than city folk.
(One day I must visit Guernsey. I have been via the airport a few decades back, but didn't get off the plane. OTOH I have a Guernseywoman sister-in-law so I know whom to ask regarding places to go and sites to see.)
It's not unusual here (in Queensland) at all, and I think neither in other parts of Oz. Once you're out of the city, maybe not as often on the main highways but certainly sometimes. But several properties will have a small stall with an honesty box and a sign saying what they've got that's big enough to read in time to stop. And it's all kinds of produce, including eggs and sometimes stuff like honey. Most common is mangoes, pumpkins, potatoes or watermelon, but all sorts of fruit and veg turns up. Sometimes it's semi-commercial and staffed, and there's a sort of continuum across the range of scales I guess.
http://staunchbookprize.com/
I think this is a decent idea for a prize except that I get cranky because it shows a mental habit of treating violence against men as not even a perceptible problem.
Could there be thrillers with no violence against anyone?
I can't find it efficiently, but there was a long reddit thread about women ignoring men's sexual consent. It does happen, it's serious, and it's a blind spot in the culture.
I strongly agree that children need to be taught consent for affectionate touch as well as sexual touch, even though it doesn't make sense to demand consent for everything.
A story about using consent while conveying the idea of not running out in the street: A parent put some sticks in a bag, had the kid watch what happened when the sticks were run over.
A woman therapist has suggested to me that maybe a lot of men have trouble understanding the idea of sexual consent because there's a cultural idea (perhaps somewhat faded by now) that men don't have a right to say no to attractive women.
While visiting family in Pennsylvania I've visited Amish fruit and veg stores. The one I most remember took the form of a 50m long poly tunnel, probably 8m wide, filled with tables of every produce you can imagine growing in PA soil. Plus jams, apple butters, canned vegetables... the full range of Amish produce. And no people at all, just an honesty box and a book at the entrance to record what you'd bought. Halfway through our shop, arms full of vegetables, one of the staff came through the back door to bring in more produce. As a London-raised lad I have never seen any shopkeeper, in any situation, greet someone with less suspicion.
Do you have any articles at hand that talk about those ports in a way useful to an American who hasn't been watching Irish shipping?
The ports are Rosslare (RoI) and Dunkirk (France, but almost Belgium). The current route for Irish freight tends to be Dublin or Rosslare to Wales or England, then drive to Kent, and then from one of the Kentish ports to one of the ports opposite, including Dunkirk.
Dunkirk has been a freight ferry terminal for years, not so much a car or passenger port. We went through it by car a number of years ago and were not impressed by how basic the facilities were, but then truckers don't need waiting rooms and cafes.
A lot of freight has been going from Kent in the UK through Dunkirk for a long, long time - when we went through it by car several years ago it was pretty basic, but that's what freight ferry terminals are like. Similarly Rosslare, which I first went through some time in the 1980s as a foot passenger then taking the train up to Dublin.
Neither port is new. What is new is that a direct ferry route between them is being instituted which goes round the tip of Britain, instead of freight going from Dublin or Rosslare across to Wales or England, and from Kent to Dunkirk, with a drive in-between.
For lorry drivers, it will take longer than the current setup, because the miles covered are considerably increased and ships move a lot slower than lorries. However they can have a good long rest during it, which means they can do a full day's drive once they've landed. And if the worst happens at the British ports, they're saving two crossings of the EU's external borders with all the time and paperwork that looks like taking.
In terms of port capacity, a chunk of traffic currently going out of Dublin port would transfer to Rosslare. Dunkirk is unlikely to change much, since it's already taking freight that was going that way.
The roads from Dublin down to Rosslare are (or were last time I drove that route) somewhat sparse, and they may need upgrading if this continues. (It'd be better if the railway could be used, but truckers and railways are deeply suspicious of each other.)
BTW: there's been a ferry route from Rosslare to Cherbourg in France for a while too, but that's not the best route to Benelux and Germany and Central Europe, being on the wrong edge of France.
Nancy Lebovitz |@ 888 : "Could there be thrillers with no violence against anyone?"
I remember from way back, when I could go only to the children's side of the local branch of the municipal library, that there was a series of detective novels written for young adults. I would learn later that they were a step up in complexity from the children's adventure books or the "Bob Morane" series.
Anyway, nobody got hurt in them.
"I'm new to this neighborhood so all my neighbors already know just how much to plant to get the crop they want - more or less*. But, it'd be great if a few of us could coordinate our plantings. "
In the USA, it's the peak which gets you. In July-Aug, all of the tomatoes come in and you suddenly have far more than you can eat before they go bad.
"Waterborne transport does exist in the US, but not where you have been looking.
The intercoastal waterway is centered around the Mississippi-Missouri rivers and along the Gulf Coast with a connection to the Great Lakes at Chicago. Like US railroads it is dominated by large-scale bulk transport. And there is an immense infrastructure maintained by the US Corps of Engineers."
BTW, a company called STRATFOR did a historical analysis of the the US river system. They pointed out that in the earlier days of the US, the greater Mississippi system (basically the Rockies to the Appalachians) was invulnerable to he Royal Navy, so long as New Orleans was held.
This is a 1,500 by (at least) 1,500 mile chunk of land. This also explained the US desire to absorb Texas; otherwise it would have been an independent country in a position to threaten New Orleans.
A friend of mine works for a cement company in the USA. Their organizational structure is totally river oriented, since that's how massive amounts of cement are moved.
If you're west of the Colorado Rockies in the U.S., there's nothing remotely resembling a canal system used for freight. The only places you get ships inland are the Columbia and Sacramento Rivers, and freight traffic doesn't go further than Stockton or Portland, neither of which is more than a hundred miles inland.
All the canal action is east of the Rockies.
Greg: Simples - hang ALL the priests!
Your religious preconceptions are showing again. Turns out that Judaism -- aside from the Haredim, who are a special case [*] -- prioritizes the woman's health and well-being, including sexual satisfaction and access to abortion and contraception. The whole anti-sex, anti-abortion thing is utterly alien. (There are large chunks of Talmudic and subsequent discourse about how sexual pleasure is important, how married couples are supposed to make each other happy, and how it's important to bear in mind that even couples who can't or shouldn't marry should strive for happiness. It's almost like it's got nothing in common with Christian doctrine. Fancy that.)
[*] The Haredim are a cultural trauma-response to the Holocaust and are closest to the bonkers American Quiverful Christianists insofar as they go overboard for large families, but in their case it's a "the Nazis tried to wipe us off the face of the planet, so fuck the Nazis, we're gonna repopulate".
Oh dear, you really don't know, do you?
Uh, I said that.
Danube...
My only experience with the Danube was where it was about 75' wide. We walked across the bridge at Munderkingen after getting off the train.
That and all the flyers I get for those river cruises in Europe.
As a non-parent I try to limit my involvement to expressing admiration that parents have somehow managed to both keep from murdering their children and kept their kids from killing anyone including themselves.
Thank you.
Before I had kids I tried to do the same. After I had kids I realized just how freaking little non-parents know about raising kids. Parents don't know much. Non-parents typically know less than a spit in a big bucket.
Anyone who has raised kids who can early a living and not be a jerk has done a decent job. And there are no two kids who will turn out the same if raised the same way.
It's a hard job. And I had no idea until in the middle of it.
You could just show them episodes of "The A-Team". The show runners expended amazing amounts of ammunition and blew up dozens of cars, trains, orphanages, maternity hospital etdc. and nobody ever got hurt.
For another "nobody got hurt" kid's TV series, try "The Tomorrow People" from the 1970s. Homo Novis, young people with telepathic and telekinetic powers who can't hurt or kill others.
Moz I feel like we probably agree but are arguing past each other somehow. I'm going to let it go with the statement that sexual violence is bad and hope you agree.
As for kids and consent, it is a complicated bag. Common 'parenting' advice when our young ones were small was that they are not obligated to provide affection to anyone they don't want to.
We held that line; affection is given not taken. It resulted in some pushback from older relatives but at the end of the day they are grownups and need to get over it (which they did).
Parenting is hard, but learnable on the job with effort and attention.
Charlie @ 895 & elsewhere ( Britain being hopeless for the Mormons) Unfortunately, our misgovernment ( And NOT just the tories either ) are stuck in a 1950's time-warp, with religion being given exceptional privileges, especially where it comes to schooling & religious-backed "acadamies" - I'm fairly sure you are aware of this, but many other of our readers are not going to be. It's utterly disgraceful, IMHO, but nothing at all seems to be done about it.
gasdive @ 843 A couple of posters have mentioned freezing as part of their preparedness strategy.
Just a note, if you're using freezing, you should have a generator or equivalent. The power may not stay on. The generator has to be sized for the start load of the freezer, often multiples of the rated draw.
I have two generators. The first was originally sized to run my old refrigerator/freezer, a microwave & a Mr. Coffee machine. My new refrigerator is more energy efficient than the old one, so I have a bit of extra capacity now (enough I think to run the electrical portion - controls & igniters - of my new gas stove). If we do get an extended power outage, I'll have to prioritize eating food out of the mini-freezer that supplements the refrigerator freezer.
The second generator is a two-stroke that runs on the same fuel mix as my chainsaw. It has enough output to power a guitar amp (75W consumption, 18W audio output). I've used it to play outdoors when I wanted to use an electric guitar.
I once considered installing a small diesel engine in my basement & running it off of natural gas. I was going to use the "waste heat" through a heat exchanger to heat my house in the winter.
As a by-product, the diesel engine would have powered a generator a battery bank connected to a synchronous inverter (synchronized to the local power grid). I hadn't figured out how to get rid of the "waste heat" during the summer (probably a second heat exchanger outside the house), but the generator/battery bank/inverter could have powered the AC during the summer.
I got the idea from an article in Mother Earth News. IIRC, the people who had done it said it was about as efficient for heating their house as a regular furnace. Plus the bonus from the generator.
"All the canal action is east of the Rockies."
I don't think that it's 'canal action'; it's rivers. Heavily dredged rives, but still rivers.
Although California has 26 canals listed in Wikipedia.
Now, the list of abandoned canals in the USA was very, very long.
I'm sure that's true, but I don't think any of those 26 are used for freight, just for getting water from one part of the desert to another.
Dark Halo hitting Solar Winds? And here I just today saw an article in slashdot about "superhighways" between the planets, allowing material to go from one to the other in decades, or many hundreds of years, rather than thousands.
So, there are these spacial bypasses....
"Consent parenting" is yet the latest This Is How It Should Be Done, and Everyone Was Wrong for the Last 50,000 Years!
I have four kids (and a stepkid). One of them, my son, I was there from when he was 3.5 on. So, speaking as a parent who has, in fact, raised kids.... 1. Yes, I spanked them. On the butt. NOWHERE ELSE WAS ACCEPTABLE, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. 2. Consent... go ahead, put a 1.5 yr old or 3 yr old who's overtired to bed. Here, let me give you the kid's side of the dialog, "I DON'T WANNA! I DON'T WANNA!!!!!" 3. Grabbing them for safety, absolutely. On the other hand, we always explained, in ways the kid could understand, why it was not safe, and why we had to stop/protect them.
It's amazing how more responsive kids are when you explain things to them, instead of "BECAUSE I SAID SO!".
And you give them more freedom to make choices as they get older, though you do retain the right to advise and consent.
One more thing, no, you do NOT fucking deserve respect. Respect is earned, even from your kids.
Never had generation gap with my folks, nor with my kids. My #1 explanation is NO HYPOCRISY. You do not tell them not to do something while you do it.
"Sticks in a bag"? When I was three or four, my mom and I took the bus to Atlantic City, and this was decades before there was a freeway, so it took 2-3 hours. We get off at the bus station, and I, of course, am rammy and crazy, and start running. She grabs me before I can run in front of a bus, and points down to a squashed pigeon, and told me "see what happens if you run in front of a bus?"
Oh, horrible dreadful warping of a child!!!
Bullshit. I looked, I saw, I learned the lesson. The world ain't a safe place, and you have to learn that early.
I may have posted this before: my last class before I got my B.Sc was a distribution class - "World Religions". To make it more interesting, my instructor brought in spokespeople. For Judaism, he brought in an ultraOrthodox rabbi. I asked about abortion, and he said that Jews are fine with that, quoted something from Exodus, I think, and said, in so many words, "society has far more invested in a woman of childbearing years than it does in something not born."
That being said, let's see them swear SECULAR allegiance to the country, and if they can't, bye, Felicia.
I also have zero issues with ALL CHURCHES being taxed.
Miker @ 860: Waterborne transport does exist in the US, but not where you have been looking.
The intercoastal waterway is centered around the Mississippi-Missouri rivers and along the Gulf Coast with a connection to the Great Lakes at Chicago. Like US railroads it is dominated by large-scale bulk transport. And there is an immense infrastructure maintained by the US Corps of Engineers.
You don't know where I've been looking.
The Intracoastal Waterway follows the Atlantic & Gulf coasts from Boston to Brownsville. It is a completely separate system of navigable waters from the Western Rivers, although the two systems cross near New Orleans.
The Intracoastal Waterway also links to the Great Lakes & Saint Lawrence Seaway via the Hudson River & Erie Canal.
there's a cultural idea (perhaps somewhat faded by now) that men don't have a right to say no to attractive women.
Sadly still very much alive, and in the legal system. The sentences handed down for women who rape boys are laughable, when they're even prosecuted, and the boys are inevitably treated to further public abuse for not liking the rape. Bonus: the boys are liable for child support if their rapist gets pregnant, in some legal systems even if the rape results in conviction.
At a social level the response to "I'm not into her" often ranges from polite disbelief to teasing to outright abuse. Men learn not to say it, and generally use the more acceptable "no, she's out of my league" or "you're trying to get me to make a fool of myself" etc. Those are much safer responses... just pretend you can't tell she's hitting on you.
What are you supposed to do if you don't have a squashed pigeon handy?
David L @ 897:
Thank you.
Before I had kids I tried to do the same. After I had kids I realized just how freaking little non-parents know about raising kids. Parents don't know much. Non-parents typically know less than a spit in a big bucket.
Another non-parent here. I keep my opinions on how to raise kids to myself UNLESS asked. Sometimes parents will ask, but not often.
I'm surprised no one has mentioned the passing of John le Carré this past Saturday.
You could just show them episodes of "The A-Team". The show runners expended amazing amounts of ammunition and blew up dozens of cars, trains, orphanages, maternity hospital etdc. and nobody ever got hurt.
Personally I felt that show trivialized violence. And tended to make serious stuff look trivial and that, as you said, "nobody ever got hurt". Kids watching that show learn all kinds of wrong lessons. IMNERHO.
And no one has ever called me a pacifist.
GRRM says he's opposed to "action" which means violence with no one getting hurt.
A parent put some sticks in a bag, had the kid watch what happened when the sticks were run over.
My kids would have said "So? I'm not a stick. I can jump out of the way."
Kids are all very different. What works for one will be totally ignored by another. When kids in a family/group appear outwardly to be the same, I'm suspicious.
Raising kids.
A child rearing specialist I hear on the radio once was talking about parents and adults trying to reason with small kids. Her comment basically was that in the entire history of the planet there has never been a 5 year old who listened to what an adult said to them then replied "You know, that makes sense. I'll keep that in mind in the future."
This person didn't know my older son.
I just saw this:
https://tech.slashdot.org/story/20/12/15/1854250/facebook-to-move-uk-users-to-california-terms-avoiding-eu-privacy-rules
Apparently once Brexit happens, Facebook will apply its "California" privacy rules to the UK. This doesn't make sense to me, however. Aren't the UK's laws and the EU's laws currently the same? If I understand things correctly, after Brexit is finalized, the laws of the EU and UK will gradually start to drift apart, right?
Or if I'm wrong, can someone explain why?
Go down to the bus station?
That's an adults reply. A kid's is more like "okay...."
It also MATTERS that you sit down and talk to them, and do your best to speak to them (as Tolkien wrote in "On Fairy Stories") as ignorant, not stupid, and try to explain in ways that make sense to them.
My guess it relies not on what EU or UK law says, but on what data sharing agreements that the UK may have with the US that the EU doesn't - and the linked article from Slashdot does mention the US Cloud Act 2018, which apparently the UK has made some agreement with the US to allow the US easier access to UK stuff.
So once you are out of the EU, you lose the EU protection and Facebook (and others per the article) are merely reflecting that reality.
I also have zero issues with ALL CHURCHES being taxed.
Well, I do have some problems, actually, and it gets at the separation of Church and State.
For example, do you want big churches to be taxed less than small ones? Or do churches get taxed more if they have certain structures? Or if they're not Christian? Or if their neighbors complain about them? The possibilities are ripe for misery.
What we want, I think, is for the separation to go both ways. Churches stay out of politics (hah!), politicians stay out of churches (hah!). This is the point of having a secular society, but it's always going to be a problem for anyone who wants to live their morality, where they got their morality from their religious teaching or lack thereof.
While we could argue about whether churches are supposed to act more like non-profits, I'd point out that non-profit public universities have jacked tuition almost 800 percent in the last 40-odd years, while there's a non-profit medical system in northern California that's swallowing all the competition and jacking medical costs through the roof. And other medical systems around the US are following it. Compared with these billion-dollar behemoths, it's hard to yell and scream about a megachurch.
The question is this: if the system's been hacked for personal profiteering, how do you disenfuck it?
For example, do you want big churches to be taxed less than small ones? Or do churches get taxed more if they have certain structures? Or if they're not Christian? Or if their neighbors complain about them? The possibilities are ripe for misery.
Alternatively, you merely allow the existing tax structures apply - property tax and business tax on income.
Yes, they will probably make much of their tax on income disappear, but at least the local government (who generally needs it most) will get some tax revenue for providing the basics.
(and will possibly even make it easier for those pursuing legal actions against them for bad actions pursue the financial remedies the court may order if everything is "officially" documented).
Watching The A Team made my primary school age children argue and fight when the programme finished. After this happened twice I told them that unless they were calm afterwards they would never watch the programme again. It worked.
One of the dumbfounding things about Brexit is the risk that several areas covered by EU law may simply become unregulated in the UK.
It's much more complicated than that really. The UK is a dualist (as opposed story monist) country: laws created by treaty require local legislation to be enacted as local law. However the status of legislation that was originally enacted to make EU laws UK laws, but which depends on a reference to the EU and the UK's membership of it is not straightforward. As I understand it there's a massive amount of effort going on in the background to review all such legislation, and to prepare fresh legislation to cover the problematic cases. This is creating a backlog of bills for parliament, something that it will take considerable time to get through. Where the government can, it is issuing regulations or subordinate legislation to cover required changes. It means that ALL laws based on the UK's EU membership will be reviewed (and perhaps revised) to some extent by the current government, something many people might find a bit uncomfortable.
The situation with GPDR appears not to support the change described in the article you linked. See (for instance):
https://www.itgovernance.co.uk/eu-gdpr-uk-dpa-2018-uk-gdpr
"There is very little material difference between the EU GDPR and the proposed UK GDPR, so organisations that process personal data should continue to comply with the requirements of the EU GDPR."
Heteromeles @ 922: "The question is this: if the system's been hacked for personal profiteering, how do you disenfuck it?"
Tax income and property and make sure the children get Science in their education. After that be patient. It can take several generations to get all the ignorance out.
I'm surprised no one has mentioned the passing of John le Carr
Also Ben Bova.
For example, do you want big churches to be taxed less than small ones?
I'd prefer it worked exactly as it does for any other formal organisation. Church wants to collect money or own property or employ staff, church has to incorporate or register as whatever category appeals to them. At that point they're in the same position as any other company, trust, NGO etc.
If they want to register a charitable arm then they have to have a charitable purpose (evangelism not being one) and whatever other rules apply to Greenpeace, St John's, etc.
And sadly, if they act as a criminal conspiracy then they need to be dealt with just as any other such gets dealt with. If they're a paedophile gang then they go to jail as a paedophile gang. None of this "we answer only to the laws of Rome" bullshit unless they want to be dumped in international waters and left to walk home.
Brexit Progress !!!
"Exclusive-Facebook to move UK users to California terms, avoiding EU privacy rules"
https://www.reuters.com/article/britain-eu-facebook-exclusive-idUSKBN28P2HH
John le Carre A vastly over-rated, tedious repetitive BORING author. I made two attempts to read "A small town in Germany" & simply gave up. Dickens is far more readable .....
Heteromeles One nation seems to have managed it - France if the (health) system's been hacked for personal profiteering, how do you disenfuck it? Institute the NHS, actually.
EU privacy rules & Arsebook ... ANOTHER reason to never, ever, under any circumstances, use Arsebook
Try The Honourable Schoolboy. I thought it was very readable.
A child rearing specialist I hear on the radio once was talking about parents and adults trying to reason with small kids.
A topical web comic from a few days ago shows a woman observing, "Wow, that kid is really poorly behaved. Wait, that's our kid. Damnit."
(Charlie, I'm getting an intermittent Not Secure warning when I post, over the last few days. Is this unique to me?)
EU privacy rules & Arsebook ... ANOTHER reason to never, ever, under any circumstances, use Arsebook
They aren't the only ones though, the article mentioned Google, and likely all the other American services are doing the same thing.
One reason will be the knowledge the UK government will cave to almost any US request, so better prepare in advance so that no data is in an EU jurisdiction...
Greg Tingey @ 930: "I made two attempts to read "A small town in Germany" & simply gave up"
I made a single attempt at it and failed. Later books were sometimes more readable.
The Secret Pilgrim is like a collection of short stories with the same hero and it was fun.
Going back to brexit -- I just saw this in the news btw;
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/15/uk-drops-push-for-renationalising-of-fishing-vessels-in-brexit-talks
"UK drops push for renationalising of fishing vessels in Brexit talks"
I wonder .... did bozo just blink again? Maybe there's a (bad) deal coming our way soon?
ljones
I've been discussing the le Carré universe and the books extensively elsewhere. The participants are le Carré admirers, and know his work well, over a long span of time, as the books arrived, so it is going well.
I cannot, of course, know how I'd have reacted to Legacy of Spies (2017), but I do like to think that the opening paragraph of the novel would have hit me between the eyes just as as hard if I hadn't read any of the others, that I'd have had the perspicacity to have recognized what a skilled writer he was even without having read the earlier books.
[ "What follows is a truthful account, as best I am able to provide it, of my role in the British deception operation, code-named Windfall, that was mounted against the East German Intelligence Service (Stasi) in the late 1950s and early '60s, and resulted in the death of the best British secret agent I ever worked with, and of the innocent woman for whom he gave his life." ]
It tells the reader s/he's going to get everything that makes for a good spy yarn, in a single, introductory, 61 word sentence. I defy anyone to stop reading after the period.
Re: '... how more responsive kids are when you explain things to them'
Actually this can start at the preverbal stage. For example when your kid starts dropping Cheerios onto the floor one at a time. Instead of stopping, taking the Cheerios away or ignoring them, give them something else that's safe to drop and repeat 'gravity'. Then you can move on to showing them what they shouldn't drop - the breakable stuff. If they know that they can trust you to play with them and then to also add new activities and info to their repertoire, I think they're more likely to ask questions and listen to your answers.
One of the most both rewarding and scary parenting moments is when your kid wins their first well-reasoned argument with you. (We acknowledged that the argument was sound but insisted on maintaining parental oversight because while the argument was valid, we didn't feel sure enough. I forget what the specific activity was, only remember how well-argued the case for the activity was and that we all managed to come to a mutually satisfactory agreement.)
You're vastly overthinking this. Treat them exactly as any other non-profit organization, so they pay taxes (reduced) on, say, church buildings, but golf courses?
And watch the megachurches get seriously hurt when their contributors can't take the tax breaks they used to, only the ones you or I get (if any) from membership in an sf club or a radio station.
There is a problem with signing in and posting, with 'insecure' message . . . .
~~~~~~~~~~~ REPLY @Barry 893
Texas petitioned the US to become a state becasue it was 1) terrified that free Mexico, to which it belonged, would, per the usual take away their slaves; 2) Texas had already expanded the demand for enslaved labor and anyone who could sell was selling higher and higher and higher; 3) the goddamned Texas Republic was drowning in debt and needed statehood so the federal US government would pay off its debts, which we did, thanx to all the slaveholder, slavery enthusiastic POTUSes.
New Orleans / Louisiana was anything but frightened of Texas takeover. As far as they were concerned, they were really one and the same. During the panic of the Jacksonian era, all the crashed slaveowners in Louisiana and Mississippi left signs saying "Gone to Texas." Most often they took their slaves with them and nothing else, as that is where all their wealth resided, and having gone bankrupt their slaves would be sold away from them and then they'd really, actually be broke white men with no standing or credit.
Read Le Carre first as a teenager, probably (don't totally remember) started with The Spy who came in from the Cold after seeing the movie with Richard Burton. I'd have read whatever the school library had but probably no others. I would have compared it to Ian Fleming at the time. Came back to read Tinker, Tailor... more recently and it was a bit revelatory, I thought this is comfortably familiar spy genre stuff but unusually the guy can actually write. Read A Delicate Truth when it came out and liked it a lot, seems to be the exact right tone for something like that being written by someone like that. Haven't ever been that big a fan, but I quite like his stuff, enough to be saddened by his passing. Will need to do a back-catalogue-survey reading at some stage I guess. Beats re-reading Banks and others again, again.
Around the country, while Texas was its own nation, I've read it was common for, say, embezzlers to leave a note: GTT (gone to Texas).
They also were heavily from the US, and were afraid of Mexico taking them back.
Tax income and property and make sure the children get Science in their education. After that be patient. It can take several generations to get all the ignorance out.
That's exactly what was tried in the US with the New Deal and in the UK after the War. We're living in the utter failure of those policies.
The problem reduces to "it is possible to get rich enough to change money from a means of rationing your agency to a means of rationing everybody else's agency through disproportionate access to the control systems"; the only fix for this is to make it impossible to get anything like that rich.
Income and net worth caps, in other words. I favour ten times the lesser of the median or the mean annual income, and fifty times the current income cap, respectively.
In the end, you probably have to make trying to get rich fatal; greedheads gonna greedhead. Social change will reduce the proportion, but they're not all able to stop. And if you get fussed about stochastic terrorism, well, mammonism is why poverty is a policy and poverty kills. It's not something a society that wants to function for everyone can afford to tolerate.
This.
A charity in law has to follow secular rules; notably, if its pattern of disbursements depart from the expected, it gets audited and the officers of the corporation are subject to legal penalties if they're using it to enrich themselves or to shield assets from taxes.
So a church is not tax-exempt; worship is in no way tax exempt. (Because worship is impossible to define and you really don't want the state to try.) The physical structure of a church building might be tax exempt, if it contains a sufficient proportion of charitable activities.
The problem is that someone who says "That's communism" is not immediately ridiculed, and people who make a single racist statement are not branded on the forehead and immediately given lobotomies.
Niala @ 926: After that be patient. It can take several generations to get all the ignorance out.
It's gonna take longer than that.
"That's communism"
Ridiculed because technically communism tried to eliminate religion? Seeing the way the Christianists act in Australia often makes me think Marx was right. The similarities between someone in heroin withdrawal and Christianists denied their latest fix of selfrighteousness are quite terrifying.
No. I'm complaining about the way anything the right dislikes suddenly becomes "communist." Complaining that something is "communism" is literally the most illiterate and useless political argument it's possible to make - and millions of people take that argument seriously.
In general, a login only lasts a fairly short time for me-- I think it's a few hours.
Sometimes I need to try logging in several times before it works, though that's been better lately. On the other hand, I've been getting the insecure login warning recently.
I have no "insecure login" warning. I use Firefox 83.0 released on November 17th 2020.
Troutwaxer @ 931: Try The Honourable Schoolboy. I thought it was very readable.
I read The Spy Who Came In from the Cold when I was 14. I'd read everything in SciFi the Durham, NC public library (along with the school libraries) had and started wolfing down all the murder mysteries & spy books I could find ... Agatha Christie and Ian Flemming, et al at the same time.
Scott Sanford @ 932:
A topical web comic from a few days ago shows a woman observing, "Wow, that kid is really poorly behaved. Wait, that's our kid. Damnit."
Hah! I knew it was going to be The Devil's Panties before I even clicked the link.
Login is insecure because it's over an http:// link rather than an https:// link. The warning is coming from the browser, and it's not wrong.
communism = socialism = "meaningful systemic change", probably "meaningful systemic change away from white supremacy".
It's a meaningful statement if you stop trying to relate it to a wider context of usage.
Same thing as the folks going on about how this is the end; from their viewpoint, loss of white supremacy means it's the end, which is why they're against democracy; consent of the governed isn't important, and maintaining supremacy is.
I don't see it, and I wonder if that's because https-everywhere is quietly fixing it, or because I start at the https:auntypope site?
I've been having to manually edit the http to https on this site for years. It seems to randomly serve the http one and I can't find a pattern. Sometimes I log in and I get to a screen that shows I'm not logged on, so I edit the url to https, and then I'm logged on without resending my login.
There's a recent change though. Now as I type the browser warns me "This form is not secure. Auto-fill has been turned off." that's new. And when I submit, even from an https url, I get the insecure warning.
So it's more dreadful than it used to be.
anything the right dislikes suddenly becomes "communist."
Better than witches. Or demons.
Remember that you've had 50+ years of intense propaganda identifying everything and anything bad with communism. Often not just regardless of the facts, but despite the facts. "crops fail in midwest... COMMUNISM". One consequence of that is you have a generation of brainwashed morons who chant "burn the
witchcommunist" whenever they see something they don't like.I have no "insecure login" warning. I use Firefox 83.0 released on November 17th 2020. On Chrome (87.0) with a loadout of script blockers/ad blockers/tracker blockers/other stuff, I am not seeing an insecure login message. However, for the comment edit window itself, I do see a "this form is not secure. autofill has been turned off" message that covers the Preview/Submit buttons; scrolling up or down exposes the buttons.
Login is insecure because it's over an http:// link rather than an https:// link.
Interesting as I get an https page when I click on the Login link at the bottom of comments.
Income and net worth caps, in other words.
I prefer a soft cap to any arbitrary hard limit. Progressively steeper tax rates have several benefits.
The most obvious is that the usual types can still play I'm Richer Than You with each other. This is fine if they're doing business and not crapping all over other people and the economy as a whole. There are plenty of things that are useful side effects of people trying to get rich.
It also means that some of them will be cheating and hiding their wealth places. It's educational for everyone that people who do this are exposed and their deeds and fates made public, pour encourager les autres. Governments may find it worthwhile to reward people who turn in tax cheats, proportional to the amount of money involved. (Rando: "Bob owes another 100 pounds!" Revenue: "Probably. Now fuck off.") This does imply more corporate transparency than we have now.
Y'know... if my browser was constantly popping up infuriating bollocks and whining about "insecure" this and that... I would simply root about in the various preferences until I discovered how to turn all that rubbish off.
You're vastly overthinking this. Treat them exactly as any other non-profit organization, so they pay taxes (reduced) on, say, church buildings, but golf courses? And watch the megachurches get seriously hurt when their contributors can't take the tax breaks they used to, only the ones you or I get (if any) from membership in an sf club or a radio station.
I think you're missing the point: non-profits can demonstrably be corrupted the same way churches can. Thus, there's little to be gained by turning churches into non-profits.
What gets lost is freedom of belief. The point of freedom of religion is that the government shall not establish an official religion, nor shall a religion establish a government. I realize it's fashionable on this page to consider American Christian sects as satanic cults in drag, but the thing to remember is, they were treated so badly in the UK and elsewhere that they left and didn't y'all and didn't come back. That says some very not-good things about the Church of England. Or possibly about England. And do note, we're getting rid of our flaxen haired idiot-in-charge. You?
I personally suspect an American Church, organized as a non-profit, would be straight out of the Handmaid's Tale. It would likely be a rapidly growing conglomerate that owned churches, charities, affordable housing, hospitals, and schools, these being things that we're all struggling to fund publicly. Probably it would mimic the tactics of WalrusMart, BigMuddy, and Stutter Health Care of California. It would be perfectly legal too, as there's no law against non-profits seeking market domination or buying up the for-profit competition, especially when the government's helping them by crippling attempts to publicly fund these goods for everyone, regardless of belief. Instead, all it has to do is offer cost discounts to those who convert and donate regularly.
You like that vision? I don't. I'd rather tell churches to stay on their side of the bloody line and get people to heaven or off the Cycle, rather than fall prey to the profiteering and plutocracy-building that would result when they're merged with secular society.
It's a bit like trying to devise a just patriarchy; you can't. The premise is the problem. So I think corporates as we have them, those engines of colonisation, have to go entirely, as does the idea that wealth is virtue or that you can keep the loot, however gotten. (House of Hohenzollern again.)
Soft limits and explicit greater-than-100% tax brackets are appealing neat as feedback, but I'm going to argue that feedback is not the appropriate systemic mechanism; the appropriate mechanism is a constraint. It's not supposed to squish.
Hereabouts, not-for-profits, particularly charities, are heavily regulated. There's a great deal they can't do.
I don't think regulation is de jure unlawful in the US.
Graydon @ 942:
That's exactly what was tried in the US with the New Deal and in the UK after the War. We're living in the utter failure of those policies.
Not in the U.S. We're living with the consequences of the US Supreme Court ruling those policies couldn't be of benefit to "whites only"; that they had to be equally available to all. We're living with the massive rejection public education that followed Brown v. Board of Education and a 60 year campaign by white supremacists to revoke the 13th, 14th and 15th Amendments.
Graydon @ 962 : So I think corporates as we have them, those engines of colonisation, have to go entirely.
Well, yes, that's what the Waffle faction of the NDP had in mind too, but they never got enough support for it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Waffle
Now, the NDP is taking baby steps towards a maximum wage with a special tax on the rich and a control of corporate richness through an excess profit tax.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-wealth-tax-opposition-day-1.5789923
Troutwaxer @ 944: The problem is that someone who says "That's communism" is not immediately ridiculed, and people who make a single racist statement are not branded on the forehead and immediately given lobotomies.
They don't need lobotomies. They've already got them, self inflicted. Some of them could benefit from education, but I suspect most should just be quarantined so they can't infect others with their plague of insanity.
"I think you're missing the point: non-profits can demonstrably be corrupted the same way churches can. Thus, there's little to be gained by turning churches into non-profits."
It does eliminate the church get-out-of-jail-free card that churches have enjoyed in far too many places, and that is worth doing.
"What gets lost is freedom of belief."
The state should not (have to) care about belief, but merely about what people do, whether because of belief or for the sake of the money.
The idea that a Government can avoid excessive entanglement with religion by having officials whose function is to decide whether or no organisations are religions, so they go in the correct category for tax purposes, seems to me to be a little ridiculous.
JHomes.
And the ultrawealthy using racism to do their best to destroy public education, resulting in no shared view of the world.
They, of course, have long used racism as "let's you and him fight, here, let me hold your wallets." Right, Catholics and Protestants? Irish and English?
Larry Niven wrote an essay, perhaps forty years ago, suggesting, tongue firmly in cheek, coining money from nuclear waste. Wealth would then have a degree of risk.
Speaking as a member of both the Baltimore SF Society (501(3)c educational organization) and the Washington (DC) SF Association (working on the incorporation), I guarantee we're well-regulated.
Hell, BSFS can't have a "clubhouse", though we do have a "meeting hall", or maybe just the BSFS building.
I used to know someone* who used "Communist" as an expletive, amusing. *Lung cancer cured his tobacco addiction.
Or maybe "meaningful systemic change away from corporate supremacy." I know that "white supremacy" and "corporate supremacy" go hand-in-hand, but I could do without either!
It's the "Supremacy" part that's the issue. but, dominance is what people do when they can't do leadership.
they were treated so badly in the UK and elsewhere that they left
And from what I read about early colonial history, they were quite willing to treat other sects the same way once they got in power.
"they were treated so badly in the UK and elsewhere that they left and didn't y'all and didn't come back. That says some very not-good things about the Church of England. Or possibly about England."
About England, certainly, though it started before there even was a Church of England and the CoE was only one of the sects involved. The thing was it would switch back and forth every so many years according to who held supreme power, and the sect which was cutting people's heads off now was one which had had its own people's heads cut off in the previous phase, etc. So in order to not get your head cut off you could either follow the example of the Vicar of Bray, or you could emigrate to somewhere there was space for any number of sects to have their own bit of it and nobody was allowed to cut anyone's head off.
Britain being small and crowded meant that eventually people were forced to figure out that it's just not worth making such a fuss about it (at a rate roughly proportional to the local population density). America had waves of immigration from whichever group was having its heads cut off at the time, all still aflame with indignation and all able to find room to go and hang out with others of their kind and keep all the flames stoked, without the pressure of having to get along with neighbours who thought differently.
From a modern British viewpoint Henry VIII's Vestments Controversy is just bizarre. It was an argument over whether priests should... wear their scarf with the ends dangling separately or with them crossed over each other, or something; if it wasn't exactly that it was something equally trivial and stupid. I mean, who gives a shit? Do people even notice? What about the wind switching the scarf from one state to the other? Is this really worth initiating centuries of bloodshed over that and every other piece of pointless shit everyone dreams up to quibble about? Well, they seemed to think it was.
What's even more bizarre is to discover that the original argument hasn't been put to bed yet, and even after all this time there are still some people going on about it. At least they have learned a bit of restraint now.
Hell, BSFS can't have a "clubhouse", though we do have a "meeting hall", or maybe just the BSFS building.
I didn't know about this quirk of Baltimore. The Los Angeles Science Fiction Society has a clubhouse, and stories about meeting and clubhouse drama going back to the 1930s.
I too like the neatness of steeply progressive (including higher than 100%) brackets, especially combined with negative tax at the other end. But I also see your point. I think that if the problem were really "Capitalism", then regulation and this sort of thing would really work. But it isn't really that, it's actually an ideology that goes a lot further than that.
The real ideologues believe that markets are fair because they regulate activity. What democracy is to the body politic, they would argue, markets are to all economic activity. The more meritorious an activity, the more it leads to people wanting to pay for it to be done, the higher the reward. This leads to an explicit argument that it is morally wrong to do anything that is not profitable. And people make exactly this argument, for example in papers in recent years that warn of the danger of foundations, which have no consumers voting with their wallets about the organisation's activities. This logic is intrinsic and critical to most small government thinking, because it is the moral justification for the premise that private commercial activity is inherently better than public activity. Everyone knows the bit about "efficiency" is basically a lie, but people still tell it because they don't want to admit they simply believe it is an intrinsic good.
I think for most of us this stuff isn't robust to even a little tentative, respectful poking at its premises. But the people who hold it are unused to seeing their premises discussed as though they are not self-evidently factual. Heck it might undermine several important things they believe about themselves and the world. Especially their place in it and how they believe in a moral justification for the relatively elevated status they accord themselves.
Separating material living standards, success in economic activity, and status from each other makes sense, but I've no idea how it's done. I know that "do stuff people will pay you to do" isn't a great way to direct activity, and just letting people try the stuff they want to do can work a lot better than people imagine (see a certain fantasy author, trans debate notwithstanding, who got started in writing while raising kids on the dole). I think the thing that people seem to think we need, that is to provide disincentives for people to stay on the dole, is wrong-headed and totally misses what the outcomes in general are (there's usually some sort of half-arsed moral justification that also doesn't handle a lot of scrutiny). Status is a harder one, it'd be great to eliminate it altogether but that doesn't seem to be possible. Fragmenting it to specific activities and aligning it with genuine achievement would help, or at least breaking away the idea that status goes with making more money.
Then the main decoupling is that material living standards should not be so dependent on success in economic activity. There's no real justification for the poverty that results, or the surplus of riches. And maybe caps are the only way for that. Pitching the alternative, which inevitably involves pitchforks, could help the argument. But it's not straightforward. And we're at the pointy end of a long history of incremental improvements in other areas leading to massive improvements over time, so maybe the "neat" things are not so bad to propose and argue?
Completely off topic, happy Pythagorean Theorem Day everyone. Wednesday is December 16th, and 12^2 + 16^2 = 20^2.
Since we're the kind of people who will wonder: There are ten Pythagorean Theorem days every century. They derive from five primitive Pythagorean triples and three derived triples. Chronologically they are:
4 March '05 3 April '05 8 June '10 6 August '10 12 May '13 9 December '15 15 Aug '17 16 December '20 24 July '25 24 Oct '26
https://evonomics.com/why-billionaires-destroy-democracy-and-capitalism/
Even some economists agree that there's a problem, and are trying to find solutions.
Our thesis is that billionaires could become a force for good – especially if their resources were used for the Common Good. There are three way this can happen: The billionaires suddenly realize that the Common Good of the planet is an important goal for them, so they join forces to save humanity and Nature; Our governments make billionaires pay their “fair share” of taxes; or Society decides that billionaires shouldn’t exist, and our governments simply tax them out of existence.
...
Unfortunately, the record of billionaire activism is not always a stellar example upholding human values or even democracy, for that matter. The John Birch society, for example, was principally backed by Fred Koch, the father of the infamous Koch brothers. The society famously attacked Martin Luther King and the Civil Rights movement, as well as JFK – with a campaign to spread hate just two weeks before his assassination in Dallas. This thread of regressive billionaire activism continues to this day.
"From a modern British viewpoint Henry VIII's Vestments Controversy is just bizarre. It was an argument over whether priests should... wear their scarf with the ends dangling separately or with them crossed over each other, or something"
Such things still exist as humans find a way to hate each other. In the scuba world the ones who breathe from the short hose (Strokes) are hated by the righteous who breathe from the long hose as ordained by our leader and saviour, William Hogarth Main, may his name live forever among the Hogarthians.
It sounds invented, but, if you wish to dive into a "stroke pit" of hate, simply put "Hogarth" and "Stroke" into your favourite search engine.
SS No Not unique to you - I'm getting the exact same screw-up. I think it might be Windows10 playing silly games ( Sometimes known as "updates" ) - but it could easily be something else. Foxessa is obviously getting it, too. gasdive - that is the exact format I'm now seeing. - Bill Arnold: Once you've copy/pasted your message into the comments box, then click in the main field - then "preview/submit" shows up? Yes? Then you get "This form is insecure - want to send anyway?" message. Effing annoying.
fjones Yes Everyone except the extreme headbangers have realised what shit is coming & are trying to pull back - much too late of course. There's now talk of "re-entering" all or some of the things we stupidly withdrew from ( Incomplete list ) Erasmus / Euratom / Europol / EU medicines agency / transport arrangements / EHIC ... & so on - it's a long list.
Moz Oh dear The reason communism is so ant-established-religion is that it's COMPETITION It's A N Other totally wrong & all-encompassing world-view that kills millions of innocent people, right?
Graydon "A just Patriarchy" ?? Well, the Han are (Re)trying that right now. Xi Jinping has The Mandate of Heaven & the Uighurs deserve to be cotton-picking slaves. [ Incidentally, I note all the "evil white slaveowners of 200 years ago" wankers have gorn all quiet of late - I wonder why? ]
Rbt Prior Quite so - their "Freedom" was to oppress their own communities & the "state" was doing it wrong. Just like Mr Theil, come to think of it.
Damian I wonder what idiot like that think of all the many thousands of "voluntary" societies & non-profits that exist, both here & in the USA? I'm a member of two of those for instance .... m
Oops. Oh GOOD fun times for the court-watchers meanwhile Yet again, our misgovernment is full of wankers, who can't & won't learn It's so depressing.
Billionaires disproportionately affecting policy increase variation for both good and ill.
I have a frivolous fondness for tax exemptions for religion because churches would rent out affordable space to the SCA. More generally, tax exemptions probably make it more possible for poor people to have meeting places.
I'm using Chrome on Windows 10, and the security warnings only show up for logging in, not for posting.
Nancy L Other way around for me - the screen/page come up unsullied, but as soon as I look at the "comments" window, I get "safety" warnings. And I'm Chrome/Win10, like you. Um
Firefox has a nice add-on called 'HTTPS Everywhere' which forces an HTTPS connection (if available) for every website.
Might solve the problem of occasionally being served a login screen over HTTP.
Yes, but why should Facebook care, the UK may have an equivalent law to the GPDR but it'll be powerless to enforce it.
Thank you.
My fine Louisiana upbringing clearly did not include spelling.
Other way around for me - the screen/page come up unsullied, but as soon as I look at the "comments" window, I get "safety" warnings. And I'm Chrome/Win10, like you. Um
Windows 10 and Firefox and no warnings for me.
What gets lost is freedom of belief. The point of freedom of religion is that the government shall not establish an official religion,
Nothing about making them a non-profit removes freedom of belief, nor does it establish an official religion.
I personally suspect an American Church, organized as a non-profit, would be straight out of the Handmaid's Tale. It would likely be a rapidly growing conglomerate that owned churches, charities, affordable housing, hospitals, and schools, these being things that we're all struggling to fund publicly.
To which, the churches in the US are already doing those things, so what exactly is the difference?
For example, in 2016 4 out the 10 largest healthcare systems in the US were Catholic, and 20% of hospital beds in the US are in a religous hospital https://www.ansirh.org/research/growth-religious-healthcare-systems
Or the Supreme Court rules this year States have to fund religious schools if they fund private schools - and with the number of voucher and charter school systems in the US that will be a lot. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-religion-idUSKBN2412FX
And they are involved in the affordable housing field (and the alternative is often selling out to developers who build for-profit housing). https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-13/churches-are-building-housing-developments-in-god-s-back-yard
χαίρομαι!
The more meritorious an activity, the more it leads to people wanting to pay for it to be done
Back in the 80s I was at a party and met someone who argued much like that. Price was the only true measure of value—if no one was willing to pay for something it was worthless. Being even less tactful than I am now, I asked him how much he paid his wife for sex.
Following your format I think you were missing two more couples analogous to the first two:
4 March '05 3 April '05 8 June '10 6 August '10 12 May '13 5 December '13 12 September '15 9 December '15 15 Aug '17 16 December '20 24 July '25 24 Oct '26
The last four dates are not commutative in the same way because the day part of the dates is greater than 12 in every one of them.
As to the https vs. http thing: I notice the same problem with that since the day when Charlie switched to https.
I am usually not signed in while reading the blog. I only sign in in the rare event that I want to write a comment. What follows is always the same: I sign in and write my comment. I preview the comment (often multiple times), all in https. But as soon as I hit the submit-button and the page is reloaded to show my comment at the bottom, it gets reloaded as http only. Therefore I also no longer show up as being logged in. I have to type "https://" in the address field and reload the page again. Only then do I see the comment field again. My next step is to sign out, and the page gets reloaded again, fortunately as https most of the time. If not, I again have to type "https://" in the address field and reload another time.
With long pages and long reload times, this process makes commenting really tiresome and unattractive, which is one of the reasons I'm doing it only occasionally.
I'm using Safari on Mac (High Sierra).
Matches my experience, even using Safari on a Mac (Big Sur), if I wish to comment, I use Firefox, which behaves itself.
An observation on the "what is religious freedom and how should churches be taxed?"-thread:
Everything anybody has so far written about it reads very US-centric—and therefore very unfamiliar—to me. So please take this as your scheduled reminder that this is not a US-blog, and that you US-based commenters should please not take your own situation as (a) the default for everybody on the planet, (b) the natural way of how things must work everywhere, or even (c) anything else than plain weird for people outside your country (which is—by the way—the vast majority of humankind).
As a German currently living in Germany I don't even know what you mean when you claim that "churches are not getting taxed". All I can say is "of course churches are getting taxed, just like everybody else". My congregation is paying the regular Grundsteuer for the plot it owns, just like everybody else, it's paying Mehrwertsteuer for everything it buys, just like everybody else, it's paying Abfallgebühren, Abwassergebühren etc (the usual council fees for garbage collection, used water draining and so on), just like everybody else. This year it had to pay a hefty 5-figure sum for the roadworks that the town council had done on our road (90% of which get collected from the owners of the adjacent plots by law; no exemptions), just like everybody else. So what do you all mean by "churches don't pay taxes"? Not in my world!
It's true that churches don't have to pay corporate income tax on the membership fees and donations they receive from their members—but neither do any other registered membership organisations, be it a small SF-writers association or the football club Bayern München. So there's no privilege here. Income tax is of course raised for commercial activities, of which Bayern München has a lot, so I'm sure they are taxed for that—but still not for their membership fees. As long as a church doesn't engage in commercial activities (selling something for a profit or similar), no income tax applies.
So I'm feeling really lost when US'ians discuss their model of church-state relationship (or any other topic, for that matter) without giving proper explanations, particularly in a decidedly non-US place. I do not intuitively grasp how things are done in the US and you cannot expect me to. On the contrary, you can expect that my own experience is decidedly different, if not completely opposite of what seems the default to you. And the same is true for roughly 7.5 billion other human beings on this planet. You're actually a rather small minority. Please don't forget that.
(And now I will go through the whole "when-I-press-submit-the-page-reloads-in-http-and-I-have-to-amend-it-to-https-by-hand-and-reload-again"-process for the third time in a row.)
Good grief, why do I have to explain to a bunch of educated men that the US Tax Code is a cesspool of special interest carve-outs.
So if you tear down the wall between religion and secular governance, what happens is that the government can differentially tax, or not tax, whatever religion the people in secular power prefer.
A nice, clear example is what happened when Henry VIII established the Church of England and seized the assets of the catholic monasteries. What also happened were that a number of religious minorites, normally derided as kooks on this page, were persecuted and left for the colonies.
What I'd prefer to do is to STOP dissolving the separation, not accelerate it.
(And now I will go through the whole "when-I-press-submit-the-page-reloads-in-http-and-I-have-to-amend-it-to-https-by-hand-and-reload-again"-process for the third time in a row.)
I find that after I reply to a comment if I click on the link to the comment I replied to (in my published reply) I get logged in again and can make another comment. Otherwise I have to log in again.
Not Baltimore - the state of Maryland. We're not a "club", we're a non-profit educational organization, you see. (That's what a 501(3)c is, and MD's picky....
So if you tear down the wall between religion and secular governance, what happens is that the government can differentially tax, or not tax, whatever religion the people in secular power prefer.
Which would violate the US constitution - the Establishment clause prohibits the US government from favouring any given religion, which is what you are describing.
Now you may be correct in an assumption that the Supreme Court wouldn't uphold the constitution, but that is an entirely different issue than the issue of taxation of churches.
Rude, crude and appropriate for a Mammonite. Also, nice that I wasn't drinking anything when I read that... ;)
Yeah, markets, right. And "free markets".... There was just a story on slashdot today about new, air-chambered fibre cables, so that the automated arbitrage for serious money traders whose servers are already co-located with the stock markets' servers get extra microseconds to see an offer, buy it, then resell it, having made a profit for nothing....
Down with all billionaires. And any company worth in the billions should be regulated out the wazoo, with laws to prevent regulatory capture, such as "no getting money in any manner from the industry you regulated for ten years after you leave the regulatory body".
I do agree, to a large extent: the white-wing churches hate Communism... because I consider the latter secular millinarianism, so it's absolutely competition. It's the same as outlawing witches and other magic users - they're non-licensed practitioners, as opposed to priests.
Five points!
I'll note that no one pays for air, so it must be worthless.
Heteromeles @ 996 (and to a lesser extent MSB) "Good grief, why do I have to explain to a bunch of educated men that the US Tax Code is a cesspool of special interest carve-outs."
Ahem, there are some educated women here too.
I haven't said much on religion in this US-centric thread because it identifies itself clearly as US-centric and does not concern me much.
I live in a province where belief and/or religion is a cultural thing and much less a freedom enshrined in a constitution. In fact religion is something irrelevant except for the very old people. This is a source of massive friction with all the other provinces and it has not been brought up, ergo nobody here is interested in it.
Apologies.
US tax codes (that would be city, if in a city, county, state, and federal, each with their own additive taxes) have various exemptions and deductions.
In the US, "religious organizations" get a lot of exemptions. For example, churches DO NOT PAY property taxes (and yes, some own golf courses, and don't pay on that). They get exemptions, as other non-profits do, from sales taxes. Not sure about things like social security taxes, but you get the general idea.
COVID-19 - 'Long Hauler' article
Good summary of various 'long hauler' issues that have been mentioned by people suffering from this but which have received little airplay (or research funding). FYI - examples include all age groups including infants, various initial diagnoses (asymptomatic thru recovered), and organs/systems.
Seriously folks - give this a read.
https://www.vox.com/22166236/long-term-side-effects-covid-19-symptoms-heart-fatigue
Greg - re: stockpiling
Based on my green tomatoes experience: make sure whatever you're amassing can be used in a broad range of recipes* and that you have all/enough of the various herbs, seasonings and spices to make these recipes.
Suggestions for figuring out what items you might want to stockpile:
1- what do you usually eat this time of year, how often, and how much per meal; 2- what are the closest (edible/tasty) substitutes for the above;
3- what new recipes/foods are you willing to try - assuming that 1/3 won't turn out as hoped and another 1/3 will taste awful.
I just made an English 'Christmas cake' for the first time because one of my new neighbors gave me some to try last year and it was surprisingly good (for an English recipe), plus I have a lot of dried fruits, nuts and various spices just sitting around. Have also dosed it with rum. Will see how it tastes on Xmas Eve. Hopefully I haven't wasted otherwise useful ingredients and that my neighbor (who makes this recipe on autopilot) didn't forget any steps/ingredients when she wrote it down for me. I warned her that I'm dropping some off on her doorstep for her and her husband.
A lot of this on religion is US-centric, though I gather the US white-wing churches have been funneling money into the UK (should I assume you're in Ireland?), and this is a Bad Thing.
The ultimate version of US self-proclaimed "evangelical Christians" are the Westboro Bad Taste (sorry, Baptist) Church, who protests things like military funerals, because the military allows gays to serve, then gets money by suing people who object.
A quick survey of the actions of the "evangelical Christians" in the US shows that, in fact, they are (by their own definitions) what I refer to as Christian Satanists*, never having forgiven anyone, never having turned the other cheek, and "love thy neighbor"? Fuggedaboudit.
"For English recipes"?
Still into "all English food is terrible, and boiled until dead"?
I just sent out two presents last week - some three fruits marmalade (lemon, orange, grapefruit) with a full recipe of Welsh cakes.
Fortunately, Westboro Baptist doesn't seem to be much like other bad US Christianity. They are (were?) a weird combination of legal trolls and family cult.
We're fortunate that Fred Phelps didn't think in terms of expanding it beyond his family and no one tried to imitate it.
To be fair, those aren't specially made for the stock market - I'd guess they're being used by anyone who wants faster speeds.
Is BoZo grandstanding, in preparation for a magical "deal" - for which the lying slime-bag will claim victory, or is he preparing to comprehensively wreck the place? I can't tell any more - can anyone else?
I have to log in every time I wish to make a comment. Once I've commented, if I refresh a bit later I am no longer logged in, and in fact have to leave the website altogether if I want to make another comment.
A pain, but it does keep me from posting anything that isn't worth the effort.
I also get the 'insecure' warning when I begin writing a post. Firefox or Chrome, can't remember which.
Moon news -- the Chang'e-5 lunar sample mission has successfully, it appears, returned a lunar sample to Mongolia. Pictures on Youtube, if you want to have a look. This os only a couple of days, of course, after the Hayabusa 2 probe returned a smaple of asteroidal material to Woomera in Australia.
What is it with bleak steppes and wide-open deserts that attracts these things anyway?
REPLY 981 @Tingley
["I note all the "evil white slaveowners of 200 years ago" wankers have gorn all quiet of late - I wonder why?"]
If you were paying attention there is a great deal of protesting, even unto putting their lives in danger, by contemporary, human rights, ant-slavery, anti-human trafficking groups and individuals. What you are doing is complaining that historians of slavery in the European era and the antebellum US south are continuing their work in those eras -- which is very different from what goes on in the centuries when specifically African and Native peoples slavery and trade was front and center for building capitalism. Which is what these movements you appear ignorant of are doing now. Believe it: historians of the past see what's going on right now. But historians know better than to shoot from the hip when they don't have the necessary information, unlike a whole lot of other people.
Shoot, even the conservative US public radio has been doing investigative programs on this WHICH ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO D, because, you know, pandemic plus fraught military, political, trade and relationships between the US and the UK (presumably you are sneering only at the US historians here, right? nothing to do with the UK historians, right?).
By the way, what are you doing about the Chinese reviving their cotton industry with slave labor?
Tim H. @ 971: I used to know someone* who used "Communist" as an expletive, amusing.
*Lung cancer cured his tobacco addiction.
Some people are fuckin' idiots. I try to remember that doesn't always mean they're bad people.
But it's hard sometimes.
What is it with bleak steppes and wide-open deserts that attracts these things anyway?
As I understand it, those places are free of habitation, so there's no danger of the sample hurting anyone or causing damage upon landing. Additionally, it's an environment where finding your landed/crash-landed probe is easy to do via helicopter.
But it's not straightforward. And we're at the pointy end of a long history of incremental improvements in other areas leading to massive improvements over time, so maybe the "neat" things are not so bad to propose and argue?
They're not bad, but aren't much like useful in the present circumstances.
It'd be great if people agreed about the necessity of subsuming their preference to the advancement of a common prosperity, but we know we haven't got that.
Nothing incremental works because the money has greater inherent agency (money is how agency gets rationed! poverty is the absence of sufficient agency to choose to live! imposing poverty is to remove political meaning! it's a conscious agenda!) so if you give it time, it wins. (Look at minimum wage over time.)
Any functioning system needs constraints; there's this massive problem with deconstructed white supremacy as an argument that no constraint is legitimate. We can see from the present pandemic that the entire anglosphere has a problem with positive constructions of the exercise of civil authority as well as this my-authority-is-infinite none-may-command-me axiom running loose.
There's the ticking countdown as Mother Nature gets set to bat last (and for another sixty innings....); some attempt to get out in front of agriculture failing is necessary.
So we're not getting out of this short of ethnogenesis; a fairly abrupt and conscious one, at that. (Hence my rise-of-islam comparison.) Makes me think clever incrementalism is structurally unable to provide a solution to the collection of problems we're experiencing.
mdlve @ 989: Or the Supreme Court rules this year States have to fund religious schools if they fund private schools - and with the number of voucher and charter school systems in the US that will be a lot.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-religion-idUSKBN2412FX
That Montana decision is just bizarre!
Backstory:
Montana had a tax law that provided a tax credit for people who contributed to scholarship funds for private schools. The Montana Supreme Court ruled the tax credit violated the Montana's Constitution's separation of Church & State (establishment clause) provisions if it was available to donors to private religious schools.
But, if the tax credit is available to donors to private NON-religious schools and not to private religious school donors, that's also discrimination. So, the Montana Supreme Court threw out the tax credit for BOTH.
The US Supreme court overturned that ruling and requires Montana to provide the tax credit to donors for private religious schools, although it's not clear their ruling requires Montana to provide the tax credit for private NON-religious schools.
Eh, I'm in Australia and except for someone ranting specifically about US tax codes most of it applies here too. My comment was intended to be fairly generic and is in no way specific to the US.
http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2020/12/so-you-say-you-want-a-revoluti.html#comment-2109945
Foxessa I was not even considering or thinking of actual historians, & I certainly wasn't being US-centric. From my limited viewpoint, I have noticed that all the local protestors about "Evil white slavers" ( Of 200+ years ago ) have shut up, possibly temporarily, but they don't seem to be getting exited about present-day slavery being racially imposed by the Han on subject "inferior" ( i.e. non-Han ) peoples. ANd - I wonder why that might be so? Actaully, I was talking about exactly that ... For the moment, simply not buying any of that produce, for a start ....
By the way, what are you doing about the Chinese reviving their cotton industry with slave labor?
The kindest thing I'd like to say about that is unprintable. How are they "legitimizing" this awful practice?
Following your format I think you were missing two more couples analogous to the first two:
5 December '13 12 September '15
You are absolutely right. Copying from paper is lossy and I should have double checked the list. berates self for editing failure
Thanks, good catch!
Such things still exist as humans find a way to hate each other. In the scuba world the ones who breathe from the short hose (Strokes) are hated by the righteous who breathe from the long hose as ordained by our leader and saviour, William Hogarth Main, may his name live forever among the Hogarthians.
They've found a matter even less weighty than the big end vs little end question. I imagine that anyone who points out the obvious parallel will be attacked by both sides.
(Although my search engine wants me to read about the painter William Hogarth and his many bold strokes in his art.)
How are they "legitimizing" this awful practice?
Same way the US does... the people who make the laws have decreed it so. Criminals being sentenced to forced labour is common practice around the world, and there is a lot of variation along the "prisoners paid minimum wage to clean the prison" to "shackled prisoners breaking rocks in the hot sun to pay some of the cost of imprisoning them".
Far out! I haven't seen a single news story about it....
Can't imagine why no one's jumping up and down, between the two probes.
Oh, right, the US didn't do it, or Europe, and then there's Joe Biden winning about 58 (or is it now 60?) times....
"How are they "legitimizing" this awful practice?"
Like a government. It's our people (that is, we own them) and it's for their own good.
John le Carre: A vastly over-rated, tedious repetitive BORING author.
HERESY!!!
You eat those words right now, Greg, or I'll wash your mouth out with soap!
What is it with bleak steppes and wide-open deserts that attracts these things anyway?
I'm pretty sure they like the steppes because no-one fines them for littering up there.
Oh dearie me, Charlie - really? Dickens is v variable but mostly over-rated - Carre is like bad Dickens.
Troutwaxer They are not bothering to "legitimise" it. They are simultaneously: (a) denying it & (b) saying: "Whaddya going to do, big boy?" Though a world-wide cut-off in people buying the product might have an effect?
Moz @ 1028
Back in 1978 when the Soviets lost control of one of their nuclear-powered spy satellites, Cosmos 954, it de-orbited and landed in the wrong sparsely-settled area. The pieces scattered over a 600 km path from Great Slave Lake to Baker Lake in Northern Canada.
Canada sent a Cdn $6,041,174.70 bill to the Soviets for the cleanup. The soviets eventually paid Cdn $3,000,000.
It's the biggest space littering fine I know about.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosmos_954
Wow! Hopefully we never get anything that bad here.
Ahem, there are some educated women here too.
Niala, I'm aware of your gender. Believe it or not, I was trying to avoid you and the other women in those remarks, because you seemed more sensible about this issue than the ones calling for the end of the church/state separation and dealing with religion as just another class of non-profit.
To me, saying it's okay to lump religion with the kind of activism I do for a non-profit is sort of like dealing with radioactive materials as just another toxic substance. I mean, really, alpha waves are blocked by latex gloves and plutonium is also toxic, so why the special treatment? There's no problem with 20 tonnes of dioxin sitting in a storage facility, why the precautions for 20 tonnes of enriched uranium sitting in a lump of metal? Who cares about critical mass for religious issues?
Just be glad you don't have to worry about people substituting crusade for jihad to avoid igniting religious controversy.
Niala is Alain spelled backwards, because I don't want the search engines to pick up Alain repeatedly and make correlations with my presence elsewhere on the Web. That means I'm a gentleman.
calling for the end of the church/state separation
Where are you getting that?
Properly, your religion -- like any other belief! -- permits you nothing and excuses you nothing. The civil law is supreme in all things and at all times. The civil law may make no law that explicitly or implicitly functions to break that "permits you nothing, excuses you nothing" rule; not only no preferring one religion to another, but no making a law that purports to say what a religion is, and thus no making any law that functions as a religious test or imposes a religious requirement.
The objection is to the apparent determination to give specific religions special standing in law or practice; not only the special tax status, but the US requirement to be publicly christian for public office (for example), or the de facto funding of the catholic church from public coffers. (Or the willingness to revert to the UK's de jure status as a theocracy. Or the rest of the long list.)
"Although my search engine wants me to read about the painter William Hogarth and his many bold strokes in his art"
That's very interesting. Google gives me a bunch of diving related links. Duckduckgo gives me painter links. It seems Google knows I'm interested in diving and tailors my results. I really do live on a bubble.
Here's a primer.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doing_It_Right_(scuba_diving)
It's interesting to note the religious phrasing used in what's supposed to be an encyclopedia like entry. Sections labelled "tenants" and "schisms".
There's some quotes from the leaders
"[P]ossibly the most important piece of wisdom in the diving world, and is something we should all apply to all of our diving. It is, simply, 'Don't dive with strokes.'"
It's a cess pit (or what they call a stroke pit) of Dunning Kruger self confidence that has attracted thousands of followers who know for sure that they're always right.
labelled "tenants"
because they pay rent? :P
One thing for sure, it isn't a Wikipedia-like article. There are nearly no links to other relevant Wikipedia articles.
Compare it with a typical link-filled article like Submarine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Submarine
It's fascinating in a weird way. Diving isn't my thing but I've seen climbers go down the same rabbit hole of "the one true way". Not least because climbing has a similarly low barrier to entry and a bathtub curve on the injury/fatality rates (viz, novices and very experienced people are more likely to die).
Hehehe. Well spotted. I'm clearly a Stroke.
It's fascinating in a weird way. Diving isn't my thing but I've seen climbers go down the same rabbit hole of "the one true way".
Good point. When they literally call their way Doing It Right they imply anyone else is doing it Wrong.
Someone had lots and lots of free time to write that article, too.
The whole thing of 'assemble a team that works together and uses identical equipment' is a fine approach where it works, but even a casual read through the article brings up problems. For example, 'Divers of similar competence and preparation are grouped together' immediately brings up the question of how newbies get trained. Most functional organizations have a mixture of enthusiastic raw recruits, seasoned veterans, and history-wise old farts...
Yeah, it collapses completely if you take it out of context (the context being Florida caves that are crystal clear, long wide tunnels with low flow). Teams of two or three that depend on each other in an out of air situation don't really work in a British sump dive where it's zero visibility and you're wriggling through a tiny hole. They laugh at divers who wear wet suits. Proper attire being a dry suit, but they drive to the water's edge, they don't portage through miles of cave that would shred a dry suit. Wearing a helmet or worse a helmet with torches, is more cause for merriment, but they're not doing rope work down an underground waterfall and needing both hands.
It's an incredibly myopic and prescriptive world view.
I gave up and just bought a cheap, consumer chest freezer which everyone sells for $349 but only some offer free delivery on. Evap coils in the front and back walls but the cheapest commercial freezer I could find with half-decent efficiency was over $1000 for the mechanical unit (ie, then you have to build the cold box part). Or from $4000 you get upright freezers with better start ratings. Urk.
https://www.energyrating.gov.au/calculator for the HR6CF200 tells me 225 kWh/year, or less than 1kWh/day. 0.8A and 94W according to the label. So the 750W of solar panels on the shedroom roof should be fine once I have the electronics worked out. Currently two of three panels connected, to a 75/15 controller and a 70AH lead acid battery... which will not even power the 300W inverter I already have very happily, let alone power the freezer for more than a few weeks (it's one of those car cigarette lighter ones designed for occasionally charging a laptop or something)
So now I'm looking at Will Prowse's videos of all the AliExpress cells and BMS's he's bought and thinking "do I feel lucky". The problem is that I can get a complete 100AH/12V lithium battery with Australian warranty for about $700 or name brand for $800 but trying to beat that via the direct-from-china sellers means using the low cost/high risk ones. When most sellers want $150+ for shipping do you really trust the $60 shipping option?
Greg Tingey | December 16, 2020 21:03 | Reply 1020:
[...Evil white slavers" ( Of 200+ years ago ) have shut up, possibly temporarily, but they don't seem to be getting exited about present-day slavery being racially imposed by the Han on subject "inferior" ( i.e. non-Han ) peoples. ANd - I wonder why that might be so? Actaully, I was talking about exactly that ... For the moment, simply not buying any of that produce, for a start..."]
And that is going on, fer pete's sake, as far as it can. And people are being killed and imprisoned for reporting on it.
In the meantime the cray crays who are running the UK and US gumits, and their tariffs and so on, have made Chinese cotton beyond the pale for them -- while leaving the Chinese the rest of the world to peddle their cheap(er) cotton. In the meantime of course down South here in the USA, we've got all sorts of shyte hitting the fan.
You just aren't paying any frakin' attention and sneering at others who are paying attention and trying to do things ... in the frackin' worst conditions ever to do ANYTHING ABOUT ANYTHING AT ALL.
See how excited you all are going to be next year as the UK is stripped and sold off for parts -- you must know massive numbers of people have been struggling non-stop with whatever they can manage to stop this sort of thing?
The problem is that I can get a complete 100AH/12V lithium battery with Australian warranty for about $700 or name brand for $800 but trying to beat that via the direct-from-china sellers means using the low cost/high risk ones.
I received some sort of spam from Kogan today advertising one of those for under $600, but can't find it now (might not have been email). Looking on their site yields a bit of a range, and I think the question of an Australian warranty is probably an academic one.
Kogan have a special place in the cockles of my heart. Right at the bottom, in the dank murky depths. Maybe in the sub-cockle area. Or the colon.
OTOH if they're paying people to take that shit... actually, with lithium batteries maybe not even then.
OK, I can get the Jaycar/electus one via work for $550-ish delivered (rather than $800 retail through Jaycar). And I think I'll pay the small Rainbow Power Company premium for the rest because I like the company.
Remember not to price the solid state stuff. :)
I'm told the coils-in stuff uses the sheet metal as part of the cooling; taking that off messes stuff up by changing the thermal profile.
You mean solid state batteries? Ha, I'm not made of money.
I'm not going to fsck with the freezer, it's high risk and unlikely to be worth it. It's cheaper to buy more panels and batteries than get into super-efficient freezers. I just have the habit of thinking the reverse, and the perfectionist-engineer in me is offended at the 30mm layer of insulation with a heater on one side and a cooler on the other.
Seems to me that the most sensible way of regulating religion organizations should be to license them, just like many other activities.
Specifically, such licenses should be analogous to fishing licenses (there is even scriptural precedent for this should be so, of course), probably with a point system: pay a certain amount to register your religion, more if you mean to do anything about it, still more if you plan to catch anything ("evangelize", 110% of anytithe sounds appropriate), and so on, possibly with a discount scheme for churches who practice "catch and release" (where "release" is a detailed explanation of the bollocks that was used to catch the mark, and extra point if such explanation also inoculates the mark against other religions).
Raising kids.
Some things never change. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQ9zy5vMX0Q Watch it at 15 seconds in. Full clip is less than a minute.
This is from the US PBS show Nature. It is a standard into to the show.
I don't believe I've ever actually bought something from Kogan, but I seem to get an awful lot of spam from them.
Foxessa Last year The Boss got a chance to do the eastern end of The Silk Road Bishkek / Chatyr Kol / Kashgar / Jiuquan / etc - & finally Beijing This was a "Privileged/Western/Tourist visit to historical sites" OK? Even so, the Han didn't bother to hide what they were already doing & it was obviously getting worse. Her current comments on the way China is being run are not for a family magazine ... Yes, I AM PAYING ATTENTION - but as to what can I actually do about it - fuck all, unfortunately & I am entirely aware of the strip-&-steal that is being attempted by the Brexshiteers on my country & there's fuck-all I can do about that, either. The best I can do is to Schweik it out, if I'm lucky.
[ Oh yes, she also went to Iran - which was much nicer than "China" - yes, really - she wants to go back & do the northern branch of the Road, there, along the shores of the Caspian ... ]
My ex did, and spent some happy time unsubscribing from their emails. The only memory I have of Kogan is her complaining that the cheap shit she got wasn't worth the time spent on their website unsubscribing. And she bought some really cheap shit... growing up poor means you struggle to understand Vimes Boots at a gut level.
Yeah... I was also looking for a deep cycle 100ah 12v battery myself recently, but ended up deciding Lithium was too rich for my blood at this point in time, or at least cost more than I wanted to spend, despite the difference in weight and cycles. Considering I needed a new charger to have a hope of charging an AGM battery of that size, probably going LiFePo (and getting a dedicated charger) wouldn't have been all that much more for a lot less weight, sigh. I figure next time around...
There are a lot of local businesses "un-greying" the market, I guess getting in cheap cells from China, having their own enclosures made and assembling locally, then offering their own warranty and being bound by the ACL. I was looking at a guy in Brisbane called Big Wei (bigweibattery.com.au) who seems to mostly target the off-road camper market, but he's not really beating Jaycar on price by that much, where he is at all...
I have an Aldi 80AH AGM? in the garage that's quite nice for the money, and the 70AH wet cell in the shedroom that's getting replaced with lithium. I have a Victron 75/15 that's going to be spare shortly if that's useful. With bluetooth dongle.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-17/nsw-covid-19-cases-grow-to-17/12995276
NSW has 17 new covid cases in a cluster on the north side of Sydney. People didn't isolate after getting tested, they went on a tour of the area instead and now it's not very nice. Small beer compared to certain other countries but it's annoying for those of us thinking the vaccine is nearly here and things seem to be under control.
There's a lot of corvid noises coming out of Sydney right now... Faaark, faaark, FAARRKKK!! quoth the raven and all that.
In re Chinese cotton: It's a lot easier to say "Never again" than to enforce it.
Nah, I'm good: it's already done, Battery World. The sizing is more about being able to draw 42A for a few minute at a time occasionally, though normal use would be drawing half that or less. Can probably do the same job comfortably with a pair of 25Ah LiFePo batteries in parallel, but that'll be down the track a bit. Of course the 25Ah packs stow a lot more easily in a tiny boat...
25Ah LiFePo batteries
Lithium Iron Polonium? Whoa!
(Yeah I know, that Po at the end ought really to be PO, a different kettle of fish entirely)
What would it take to get decent treatment for Uighurs?
Nancy Lebovitz @ 1060: What would it take to get decent treatment for Uighurs?
A complete change of regime in Beijing and 60 years of education about the equality of all races.
At their best the Han Chinese now think it is OK to help out those unfortunately inferior races all around them.
At their worst the Han Chinese think that the heavenly kingdom should be rid of all the inferior races.
Re: '... decent treatment for Uighurs'
So far, doing a search hasn't provided me with any real info/data only op-ed type articles skewing to the 'outrage' variety.
Specifically, the only hard data I've come across is the difference in religion and number of children per household (3 kids/Uighur household). The latter was a surprise because I was of the impression that all of China had been following the same policy (one kid per household) for the past few decades.
Ummmmmmmmmm.
Let's start off: are Han Chinese racial bigots? All billion plus of them? No. That would be stereotyping. Are they as bad as white north Americans? Probably as a spectrum, yes. And given there are more Chinese than white Americans by close to an order of magnitude, I'd expect more diversity in China than here.
Now, let's add some complexity to the mix, shall we? Where's that prejudice coming from?
US white bigotry is a bit over 400 years old and goes hand in hand with subjugation of the Indian nations and slavery first of Indians, then of blacks and whoever else we could sell. That's the great evil we've all got to deal with.
In China, we've got, among other things: --gradual expansion of the Han people south from the Yellow River Valley starting over 3,000 years ago (that's the expansionist part that's most like white settler culture, but do note how old it is)
--19 major recognized minority ethnic groups. Many of these are groups marginalized by the expansion of the Han. Some of them are not bound by the one child law, so Han Chinese who can pass for certain minority groups (not Uighur or Tibetan) often do so for the societal perks...
--A bit of history. For anyone who thinks that the modern borders of China have been solid since the Shang Dynasty, this may be a bit of a shock. Here's a list of who's claimed to rule some part of what's now modern China over the last few millennia: https://www.metmuseum.org/toah/hd/chem/hd_chem.htm
Oh yeah, two of those dynasties came from outside (Yuan were the Mongols, Ching were the Manchu), and this list doesn't count that two centuries during the Tang Dynasty when the Tibetan empire ruled over a chunk of what's now considered the western part of China, as well as the Tibetan plateau.
And then there are the missionaries, from Buddhism, Islam, Christianity, Manichaeism (where it lasted longer than anywhere else). Wait, aren't the Christians only now evangelizing the Middle Kingdom? No. Heck, IIRC, the Assyrian Church of the East (misnamed the Nestorians) had a Chinese archbishop during the Tang dynasty. And, in the 19th Century, some Chinese dude got his hands on a religious tract from a Jesuit missionary, decided he was Noah's brother and the son of Jesus, and touched off the Tai Ping Rebellion, aka the largest civil war in world history by body count. Buddhist and Muslim history in China hasn't been quite so bloody, fortunately. But if you wonder why they're so touchy about missionaries, it's because, unlike us, they actually know Chinese history a little bit.
None of this justifies Chinese treatment of Uighurs and Tibetans. However, it's really a mistake to compare that prejudice with the bigotry of white Americans. Perhaps a better simile is asking how Balkan nations feel about each other. That's one of the few other areas in the world that has the depth and complexity of conflict (going back to ancient Greece) to compare with what the ancestors of the people in what is now China have gone through. If you said that the Assyrians, Babylonians, Alexander, Sassanids, Rome, Byzantium, the Caliphate, the Ottomans, and the British were all successive dynasties in the Middle East and eastern Europe, that would crudely approximate what people think they mean when they say that China has a long history of successive dynasties ruling the same area.
Perhaps different experiences. See, being a boring person but still vaguely adjacent to society, most observed rapes stemmed from issues in the framework of consent absolutism.
These range from the woman reporting a rape after getting blotto drunk with a male friend and being woken by her fiancee as she was about to sneak off... And yes, too drunk to remember, let alone consent,...
To the 16 or 17 year old having public consensual sex with her freshman boyfriend. And yes, she was below the age of consent. But...given knowledge of that family, the narcissistic sociopath portion of her personality, combined with her extensive early and later sexual history, meh, she was never the person in danger. And yes, mentally ill, but more in ways that have proven her dangerous. Far more harming that harmed.a
To the young woman who changed her mind as her boyfriend was, um, finishing. So, yes, rape.
To the other young woman who had been quite close to her boyfriend when he stuck it in. And who was, yes, raped. But, meh, dealt with it by hitting the guy up and demanding better sex as, since she was now a fallen woman, she should at least enjoy it.
And, you can treat these as stupid strawmen, but they are also 4/5 of the rape reports I've run into across some decades of life. (At smallish personal remove).
The whole women raping men thing, while it does happen and is bad, seems like a digression.
My discomfort with consent absolutism comes with what seems to be an implicit assumption that people, men in particular, are expected to be fully in control of their facilities at all times or suffer consequences. That isn't a realistic assumption. (In my case, it manifests mostly in my 2021 resolution, to not get caught, again, accidentally waking outside lacking trousers.)
Mind you, other models seem prone to malicious tampering, so it may be a compromise solution. But, my assessment is that, yes, acceptable way to rightness or wrongness, but, not a binary scale and reasonable to consider the gray scale to determine magnitude.
Which then gets into a digression about building on the assumption that people are not always in control of their actions and therefore building habits that avoid potential problems. For sex, this means interacting with trustworthy people, not being intoxicated among strangers, and, really, avoiding intoxicants and dramatic people. All of those create risks. I'd argue that is a better recipe towards avoiding sexual violence in men than a simple insistence on consent. Though, consent is part of it. In low stress, clear headed conditions, consent should be sufficient, but, given that sex itself can somewhat intoxicating, a disproportionate portion of sex stuff may be expected to occur in situations not matching those conditions.
Actually thinking about it, if you want to do a Harry Turtledove (since he got a PhD in Byzantine history), you could do an alt-history along the lines of the following:
Around 330-325 BCE, the Campo Flegrei (aka the larger volcano under Naples) has an eruption rather larger than Vesuvius. The Roman Republic, which had recently conquered the area, is decimated, as are their rivals.
Due to the what I'll call the Avernian eruption (Lake Avernus is in the Campo Flegrei), crop yields decline throughout the Mediterranean and Middle East, possibly even including Egypt. This forces one Alexander of Macedon, self-styled Lord of Asia, to head back to Macedon with his army before they all starve. As a result, he does not die in Babylon in 323 BCE.
What happens next, if you're writing alt-history, is that you can make a loose adaptation of the history of China set around the eastern Mediterranean, stretching from the Balkans in the west to Egypt in the south, the Black Sea in the North, and the straits of Hormuz (or the Indus) in the east. Alexander and the Qin emperor were comparable in many ways. And with Rome out of the picture, the histories probably would be even more similar.
I'll post this for any Byzantine History PhDs out there looking to start writing for a living. Have fun adapting Wuxia to post-hellenic culture.
Interesting strategy: VP Penultimate Rat will oversee the vote on IQ .45's official loss, then skip town for a week or two. Three at the upmost. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/17/pence-trump-election-loss-447326
Memo to other rats: the engine room is flooding. Time to find another ship. Will BojoB get the memo?
Re: 'most observed rapes'
Really:'most observed rapes'?
Goes downhill from why a 'legally adult' male would target a 'legally underage' (16 year old) female. Four different times ...
The latter was a surprise because I was of the impression that all of China had been following the same policy (one kid per household) for the past few decades.
Nope. Recognized minority peoples were allowed three (at least a couple of decades ago).
A decade ago a couple of two only children were allowed two children of their own (so that a single child wouldn't be responsible for four grandparents). That wasn't always the case, and I'm not certain when it changed.
Nancy L The same problem one has always had with persuading the "Central Kingdom" to do anything at all, during periods that they have been in serious control. They don't seem to have changed since about 200 BCE, to be honest. See also Niala on inherent Han racism ....
Greg Tingey @ 1069
I think Han racism has political roots more than individual or family roots.
Back in the 1980s when there weren't that many televisions or foreigners in China a friend of mine went on a rare tourist excursion there. It was a long trip, which led them off the beaten paths in addition to the big cities.
When he came back he told me that in many places the Chinese people wanted to touch him to see if he was real. They had never seen human beings with brown hair and blue eyes before.
Diverging post-300 for a moment, here's an early Soviet BIG intercontinental cruise missile. Not nuclear-propelled like Pluto, though it's big enough that it could have been.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/38188/the-soviet-unions-burya-cruise-missile-was-a-little-known-cold-war-monster
Niala A friend of mine went to China several times in the 1980's/90's looking for steam railway action. At that time, he had a flaming red-brown beard - apparently he caused multiple traffic accidents, just by walking down the road!
You mean solid state batteries?
Solid-state freezer.
There's a company in the US name of Phononic claiming to have produced efficient Peltier cooling. They're selling into hospitals and such on reliability grounds (no moving parts!) but their marketing materials claim 40% better efficiency. All the Carnot cycle equipment makers are expressing serious doubt about this, since available other Peltier systems are about 15% efficient vs best-of-best compression cycle kit at ~50%. Assuming there's no blurring-of-hands hand waving in there, that's a ~70% efficiency claim Phononic is making.
Small fridges start around 2 kUSD; it's pricey stuff.
30 mm of rigid vacuum foam can be R35 or better; probably not in a cheap freezer, but betcha the design wasn't for the low-end version.
Properly, your religion -- like any other belief! -- permits you nothing and excuses you nothing. The civil law is supreme in all things and at all times. The civil law may make no law that explicitly or implicitly functions to break that "permits you nothing, excuses you nothing" rule; not only no preferring one religion to another, but no making a law that purports to say what a religion is, and thus no making any law that functions as a religious test or imposes a religious requirement.
Properly, yes. Practically, treating an American religious institution like any other non-profit is just begging for trouble from things like regulatory capture. To use the example of 1049, where religions are licensed, the fun part is when one sect, call it the Church of Cthulhu Awakening (CCA) decides to embark on a two-part quest. One part is to infiltrate the US Bureau of Religious Licensing such that they effectively control the process, the other is to help elect politicians who will look the other way when they do this. The end result of such a campaign is that they consider what is a licensed religion in the US, and perhaps even what the license allows and forbids.
Or maybe they'll just try to buy the judges. Or perhaps, they will insist on low-level judges being elected, so that said justices are afraid to rule against them. This is most definitely not being done in San Diego by certain monied interests. Cough cough.
As you correctly note, the US has real trouble separating secular and religious activities, as noted by "In God We Trust" on our currency and the unwritten religious test for Presidents. Even IQ .45, unregenerate Mammonite that he is, got sheep-dipped to become "baby evangelical" as a necessary selling point. In such an environment, relaxing things like the disestablishment clause of the US Constitution is as bad an idea as letting the CCA run the immigration and naturalization service.
the US has real trouble separating secular and religious activities, as noted by "In God We Trust" on our currency and the unwritten religious test for Presidents.
It's particularly delicious that Texas forces jury members to swear an oath "so help you God." No shilly-shalling about affirming, they have to swear to, one presumes, the Biblical supernatural entity.
Jurors, one generally thinks, are supposed to be able to reason from evidence to conclusions. So help them Yahweh.
https://statutes.capitol.texas.gov/Docs/CR/htm/CR.35.htm
Solid state freezers are not much better. And yeah, my bet on the type of insulation in a $449 freezer is that it doesn't include anything expensive (and definitely not the cheapest insulator of all... nothing :)
The Phononic stuff looks interesting but they are still mostly conceptual. It's all "imagine what you could do if our technology was available" with just the bare minimum of "we're going to mass produce this specific thing". I'd love the literal white box version but I expect they will target those $5000 upright freezers as their first consumer product because why wouldn't you? That market will pay extra for more energy stars in the rating (they do, you can get a 4 star chest freezer but a 6+ star upright... for ~$AU7000)
https://phononic.com/resources/phononic-commences-mass-production-of-solid-state-f200-merchandising-freezer-and-c200-merchandising-refrigerator/
Jurors, one generally thinks, are supposed to be able to reason from evidence to conclusions. So help them Yahweh
I swear, on pain of perjury... one second, can i see this god I'm swearing to? I wouldn't want to be jailed for perjuring myself by swearing on a false or non-existent god.
Practically, treating an American religious institution like any other non-profit is just begging for trouble from things like regulatory capture.
Only if they're allowed to be secret and to have money.
What I'm arguing for is that they ought not to be. Open books, very strict cash transfer rules, all that stuff which applies to the other charitable organizations. The legal basis to implement that is there; it would take funding the IRS and some significant political effort. (It's not like the political effort is avoidable. Not doing something about dominionists is somewhere on the continuum between accepting climate chaos and surrendering to the chains for everybody else.)
Well, the existing Phononics product is certainly not there yet in efficiency terms. (Though usefully silent and more easily pluggable to regular electrical outlets.) They're claiming 3.7 kWh/day for a 0.4 cubic foot freezer; 9.25 kWh per cubic foot.
A (mid-range) conventional 5 cubic foot freezer can be had with a requirement around 0.1 kWh/day. So Phononics is still a whole order of magnitude off in efficiency for shipped product.
bah! Yes, and it's actually PO4 so it's not even a typo: I suspect I've been making the same error consistently. Most likely I was mixed up with the common abbreviation for lithium polymer batteries, "LiPo", which of course doesn't refer to the chemistry.
I'm sure you know this, but it doesn't hurt to talk about it. LiFePO4 is safer than other lithium batteries but has lower energy density, and is turning up in the same form factors as lead-acid. Equivalent nominal capacity is roughly half the weight for 2.5 to 3 times the price of lead-acid, but they don't experience the voltage drop at 50% discharge, so somewhat less than equivalent nominal capacity is usable in the same applications. The discharge rate is significantly better too, so I could probably run my trolling motor from a single 25Ah LiFePO4 battery without problems, other than limited range of course.
I've been poking around the LiPo packs used for RC flight. There's a whole ecosystem of accessories for use while charging to mitigate the effects of exothermic events... the minimum precaution seems to be charging them on a silicone mat, but there are "bags" to enclose them in too. And they seem to be treated in the market almost like consumables...
When he came back he told me that in many places the Chinese people wanted to touch him to see if he was real. They had never seen human beings with brown hair and blue eyes before.
I've never been enough off the beaten path for that to happen, but I have been enough off the beaten path for people to want their picture taken with me. Kinda weird to be walking down the street (or in a museum) and have random strangers want to take a picture of you.
If you cast your mind back to the Tang Dynasty, China wasn't as insular as it became under the Qing. Foreigners rose to positions of power in the government, and having a foreign wife was quite the done thing.
Energy per cube is a really shit measure, though, because you're in one of the classic examples of the square-cube law. That first product seems to be a bar fridge and they play by their own rules. 0.4 cubic feet puts it firmly in "esky with peltier" territory, I suspect anything that small is going to be "1 cubic foot of compressor and gubbins with a small cold are bolted on the side".
If they scale the way compressor products do you might even see the 5 cubic foot one use less energy than the small one. Take out all the compromises to make the mechanism small, expand the radiator as well, add more insulation and enjoy your square-cube benefits... that's where it gets exciting. The fact they didn't start there suggests they are chasing the high value/high profit side first. But sadly they can't do -70°C or you know exactly which "price no object" market they'd be in right now...
relaxing things like the disestablishment clause of the US Constitution
It might just be me, but I am not seeing why that's necessary for simply stopping treating religious organisations as special. I get that requirements around transparency might attract accusations of interference, but there's no merit in that, realistically only those with a certain ideological view about "the government" could support it. Otherwise you're saying that freedom of belief only relates to things that fit into certain dimensions that align with "religion", mostly apparently being that adherents call it "religion", and regulate them differently on that basis. And the real underlying question is: why should that be special?
Well: https://abc11.com/phononic-durham-business-covid-19-vaccine-cold-transport/8101140/
Allen Thomson What does Texas do about either solid atheists who know their bible, or Quakers, then? [ I'm especially thinking, in Xtian terms of Matthew 5 v 33-37 ] Or for that matter religious, um, believers in other religions, especially polytheists such as Hindus?
If I understand it correctly, your argument is that it's easy to merge religious institutions with civil, secular institutions. All you need is something approaching an infinite supply of honest bureaucrats and money to support their monitoring of the resulting institutions.
I'd add that the same thing is true for the military. There's no reason to be concerned about letting active-duty military members run a country, so long as there's an infinite supply of honest bureaucrats and money to support their monitoring of the resulting institutions.
It's also true of con-men. There's no reason to be concerned about letting well-known con artists run a country, so long as there's an infinite supply of honest bureaucrats and money to support their monitoring of the resulting institutions.
The problem is that honest bureaucrats are in short supply (shorter still unless they're given tenure-like job protection), and the money to pay for the monitoring is inversely dependent on the power of those being monitored. Were this not the case, virtually anyone--psychopaths, rapists, incompetent former media hosts, dementia sufferers--could be made into a high-functioning politician.
And since we lack the resources to adequately police the more problematic institutions, keeping them away from power is what we can manage, at least in this sad, broken world we live in. Hence, neither religious figures nor active-duty military are allowed to take office in the US.
Hence, neither religious figures nor active-duty military are allowed to take office in the US.
I assume you mean officially recognised leaders of government-approved religions, because one of the complaints I see is that you have to be Christian to become president, and in many parts of the US to be electable at all. With the obvious caveat that until Obama you had to be white to be president. But it does raise the obvious question... how do you know someone isn't secretly a religious leader? I presume there's some legal penalty for not registering as leader of a religious group, and presumably also for not registering a group that qualifies as a religion?
In Australia we've tried to steer clear of legally defining religion so it gets a bit tricky to ban religious people from elected positions.
Why isn't that on the front page of their website?
If I understand it correctly, your argument is that it's easy to merge religious institutions with civil, secular institutions.
You do not understand me correctly.
My point is that, appropriately, religious institutions don't exist from the viewpoint of the civil power; there is no such thing as a church, a synagogue, a temple, a coven, or whatever. There is no distinction in law between a badminton club and a church; they can be incorporated as a social club or an educational charity or whatever, so long as they meet the material requirements of the category. Every organisation so incorporated follows the same rules and are subject to the same audits and the same criminal penalties. The existence of the legal category of "church" is the problem and this problem should be corrected.
Re: ' ... have to be Christian to become president, and in many parts of the US to be electable at all...'
The religious affiliation perception skew is IMO because the media keep hammering that such-and-such Pol is an Xian. Repeat anything often enough and the unwary listener will absorb this as the natural (or even the most desirable) state of the world/reality. Same for sexual orientation, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, etc. They're mostly convenient pegs/excuses for prejudice.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/26/what-the-2020-electorate-looks-like-by-party-race-and-ethnicity-age-education-and-religion/
'Religion
Christians account for the majority of registered voters in the U.S. (64%). But this figure is down from 79% as recently as 2008. The share of voters who identify as religiously unaffiliated has nearly doubled during that span, from 15% to 28%.'
https://www.pewforum.org/2012/11/16/faith-on-the-hill-the-religious-composition-of-the-113th-congress/
'But only one member of the new Congress, Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), is religiously unaffiliated, according to information gathered by CQ Roll Call. Sinema is the first member of Congress to publicly describe her religion as “none,” though 10 other members of the 113th Congress (about 2%) do not specify a religious affiliation, up from six members (about 1%) of the previous Congress.'
Sinema is the first member of Congress to publicly describe her religion as “none,” though 10 other members of the 113th Congress (about 2%) do not specify a religious affiliation
From outside the theocracy that seems terrifying. I mean, I've lived in two countries that open parliament with a prayer and have been through the "it doesn't have to be Christian" shuffle. I was saddened when the kiwis opened with an Islamic prayer but then immediately followed it with THE OFFICIAL parliamentary prayer.
https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/hansard-debates/rhr/combined/HansD_20190319_20190319
OTOH I think I'm up to about five petitions I've signed onto asking that parliament become secular. Sigh.
Greg, Hindus are not polytheists.
As I understand it from conversation with Hindu colleagues the orthodox position is that the various Hindu gods are aspects of one god. It's much the same as the Christian concept of the trinity.
I think you might want to reread what I wrote. I put scions of religious institutions in the same category as other groups banned from leadership roles: active duty military, convicted felons, and the mentally ill. The same general argument applies to all of them. While most of them at least potentially have a positive role in society, they are regarded as too risky. I think the US founders had quite enough of religious persecution to want to instantiate it here, although that hasn't stopped their heirs from trying.
That brings up a good point: what do you do about leaderless religions like the Quakers. We have had two Quaker presidents. Since those two were Herbert Hoover and Richard Nixon, I'd say that's proposition is 0-2 on the successful leadership scale. Although Nixon did authorize the EPA and the Endangered Species Act, so he wasn't entirely bad.
I can see zero reason for religious institutions to get their own designation and not simply operate as: charities, social clubs, not for profit organizations, businesses or whatever they like or suits their goals.
In Canada a registered charity cannot spend more than 10% of their resources on political activity without risking the loss of their charitable status. This of course raises questions of what qualifies as political activity - frustrating for anti-poverty charities, and shamefully weaponized when the Harper Conservatives targeted environmental charities with that rule. Having worked in the community service sector for a long time, there is a general practice of advocating for a particular policy change (ideally to the public and/or all parties), but not ever advocating for a specific party. It is a difficult line to walk.
I'd love to see that applied to churches, many of whom have a long history of actively campaigning for a particular party.
I think the US founders had quite enough of religious persecution to want to instantiate it here, although that hasn't stopped their heirs from trying.
I think you're a bit off here. While they didn't want the national government to interfere with they seemed to be OK with the states being all over religion.
In the early days I think it was Virginia that required pastors to be licensed by the state. And that only Anglicans were allowed. Not CoE due to that dust up a few years earlier so they had to be Anglicans cause changing the name made all the difference.
And other states had various levels of interference.
What does Texas do about either solid atheists who know their bible, or Quakers, then?
IANAL, but it seems to depend on the judge in the case. I have the impression that most just let it slide contrary to the law, asking for an affirmation / promise instead. Or perhaps the non-believers play along in order to exercise the important function jury duty. It would be interesting to see a study of such.
Are you sure you mean "Anglican" and not "Episcopalian"?
We have had two Quaker presidents. Since those two were Herbert Hoover and Richard Nixon, I'd say that's proposition is 0-2 on the successful leadership scale. Hoover was indeed a (right-wing) Quaker (and a pacifist, who believed in minimizing armed forces to be sufficient for defense but not offense). Nixon, however, was not, really. His parents were "fundamentalist Quakers", in a programmed California meeting with a minister and not much silence. He diverged in college though remained faithful. (Nixon was an unusual man. Differently moral.)
See the ToC and first 10 pages of this: The Religious Philosophy of Richard M Nixon The Religious Philosophy of Richard M Nixon (Robert Benjamin Abel, 2008, Master of Arts thesis, with supporting refs)
Re: ' ... when the kiwis opened with an Islamic prayer but then immediately followed it with THE OFFICIAL parliamentary prayer.'
I'm not religious but the 'prayers' in this session suggest that Parliament was paying its respect to the Muslim victims via the first (Islam) prayer. By following this up with a second (Xian) prayer, it's saying: we have this in common notwithstanding differences on some details.
Maybe at some point the NZ Pols might consider Pratchett's Watch constable swearing-in ceremony: 'I swear as (enter deity's name/philosophic tenet) is my witness to ...'. Would make sense as a symbol of inclusiveness: all faiths/philosophies have a place there.
BTW - You've got a good PM.
“And they seem to be treated in the market almost like consumables..” Well, that is at least in part because we horribly abuse them most of the time.
For a small plane it isn’t too hard to keep a lipo pack sensibly cool in flight but for a lot of scale models you end u stuffing it somewhere tight. Or in my hot liner (think 2kW motor for a 2kg 2m span, mostly carbon model. We’re talking 20 seconds to out of sight straight up, accelerating) the pack gets hot for 20 seconds and then cools slowly in glide mode for maybe 20 minutes, then another 15 sec power, another 20 glide, repeat maybe 4 times. That tends to damage packs but they’re only 4-cell 3Ahr, so not expensive enough to worry about in a $1500 model for competition.
In my 2m scale Yak 54 there is plenty of room but pulling 100-150A takes its toll. They’re a bit more expensive, being 10cell 5Ah.
In the US, it's ILLEGAL for them to engage in political activity, any more than it's legal for a 501(3)c educational organization to do so.
A bunch of churches in the last four+ years should have had their IRS status yanked, and they should owe taxes.
Talking about Kogan and RC flying... one reason I was paying them attention recently is because they offer "reconditioned" GoPros of a model that has been discontinued, but is a great form factor for sticking on a small plane... which might end up being the first thing I actually buy from them.
in the last four+ years
I think you're off by a factor of 50.
Are you sure you mean "Anglican" and not "Episcopalian"?
Sorry. It gets confusing in the US. Yes, CoE became E after the revolution. And while closely tied to the CoE the E got rid of the loyalty to the crown issues in various creeds and ordinations. Then over the last 20 years the E in the US split up over all kinds of "liberal" issues and many of the congregations that split off now submit to 2 or more Anglican Communions out of Africa. (Maybe others since I last read up 10 years ago.) All under the authority of the CoE but with very different beliefs about current events.
So E/A/CoE churches in the US can all be within blocks of each other and exist under the "authority" of the Archbishop of Canterbury they all at times claim one or both of the others are "not legit". Although a CoE congregation in the US would be a bit odd duck as it would really should not be here but well ...
SFR Here, less than 20% of the population self-identify as religious. Doesn't stop fucking Parliament STILL giving religious privilege to schools, or the BeeB refusing, point-blank to do something about their revolting religious "Thought for the day" in the morning. ( I'm reminded of a now-dead v good friend who used to say: "It's no good Greg lad, they're all paid agents of the Pope" - he was an escaped catholic, of course. )
In the US, I don't think there's any legal requirement for elected officials to be religious. The problem is that so much of the public doesn't trust non-religious people.
I read the "big" book by Bishop Spong about 20 years ago too, so while I'm not intimately familiar with how things have gone in the USA, I can remember the adventures he described there and I can see how it might have gone since, so what you say isn't that surprising. Particularly the bit about the African churches and how it isn't all run from Lambeth Palace these days.
This is horribly reminiscent of the behaviour of the Conservatives over the Corn Laws during the Irish famine.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-child-food-poverty-unicef-b1775618.html
When I was born, the locals wanted to see me to check whether 'white' people were born like that, or lost their colouring after birth. If I read my birth certificate correctly, I was one of the first 200 people born to non-natives (*) in Nigeria.
(*) For the politically correct, that means anyone who was not themselves born in that area, whatever colour or nationality.
In Canada's House of Commons a daily prayer is read in the morning, behind closed doors, before the public is let in and before the cameras are switched on.
So, for all we know they might well be skipping the text and praying to Ra in there.
Nancy L The problem is that so much of the (US) public doesn't trust non-religious people. Because of at least 60 years of persistent lying propaganda about atheists, aided & abetted by followers of another religion, communists, of course. In the US, modern phobia of Social Democracy aside, there's the Cold War legacy. Come on, it took Ireland, or the Southern part, at any rate, over 70 years to even start throwing off the permanent brainwashing imposed by the Black Crows - though there, one can date the revolt to a single & particular event, of course. ( 28/10/2012 ) Which, in the space of 6 years, completely trashed the preceding autocracy.
EC Nice one! Grease-Smaug is a revolting object, isn't he. More of this to come in January on current form.
If you want a truly terrifying example of propaganda, where, unusually, the BeeB was fully "on-side" with the government line occurred here in 2012. Of the 12 neighbours I know to speak to - only one had any time at all for the Festival of Fascism that was happening in London that year - & even he did so, because as a photo-journalist, it was providing him with copy & income. Not one of the rest of us were even interested & the majority of those were against it. Meanwhile, not one, not once, EVER was there any expression, anywhere in the media that this waste of time, money & effort was the authoritarian shit that it was & is.
Niala Cthulu?
shamefully weaponized when the Harper Conservatives targeted environmental charities with that rule
For non-Canadians, the Harper government decided that, since climate change is a political issue, any advocacy around environmental issues was a political action. So encouraging (say) a ban on disposable plastic bags was a political campaign.
Tellingly, any anti-environmental advocacy was not considered political, and could therefore be done without losing charitable status. The fact that this lined up with Conservative policies was purely coincidental and had nothing to do with suppressing opposition.
So opposing a pipeline was political, while supporting the same pipeline wasn't.
In the US, it's ILLEGAL for them to engage in political activity, any more than it's legal for a 501(3)c educational organization to do so. A bunch of churches in the last four+ years should have had their IRS status yanked, and they should owe taxes.
I agree completely. Since I work for a 510(c)(3), I'm acutely aware of what I can advocate for and cannot. Basically, it works out as "I can advocate for or against issues, but not for or against candidates."
Incidentally, the Sierra Club, due to some clever political sniping by their opponents decades ago, lost its 501(c)(3) status, so it's a 501(c)(4). That means, unfortunately for their opponents, that while they're not tax exempt, they aren't limited and do regularly endorse candidates.
Hopefully, more people outside the US get the idea that the problem isn't that the laws need to be simplified, it's that powerful organizations are very inadequately restrained as it is, and snipping away more of those restraints in the name of simplifying the laws will almost certainly have unpleasant follow-on consequences.
And I'm not anti-religious. But with tens of thousands of religious organizations out there, the fact that I find some congenial to my personal world-view says precisely nothing about whether others are the political equivalent of plutonium stored in leaking 55 gallon drums.
So opposing a pipeline was political, while supporting the same pipeline wasn't.
Did anyone every convince a Canadian court that unequal treatment was taking place?
The problem is that so much of the public doesn't trust non-religious people.
The voting public never gets to that point - the small number of dedicated members of each party have eliminated the non-religious (or more accurately, those who aren't willing to pretend to be Christian) in the primaries or other selection processes.
mdlve @ 1116 members of each party have eliminated the non-religious (or more accurately, those who aren't willing to pretend to be Christian
Not in Canada. Jagmeet Singh is a Sikh
And there are a number of Muslim members of Congress or various state legislatures/senates, and of course places like New York and Los Angeles routinely elect Jews. I'm sure there are Hindu and Buddhist politicians in the U.S., though I don't know any by name.
Except in the last four+, they've been blatant about it, simply ignoring the law, rather than playing around it. And, of course, the Orange Toilet Scum's IRS ignored the violations.
No. For one, they've been brainwashed to some degree. More so, there's a real percentage of folks who, when polled, feel that they have to respond the way they're expected to, and/or how their neighbors expect them to, and claim to be religious, when it they go to church for Easter and Christmas, it's a big deal.
The right, of course, seeing SOCIALISM as "we can make things better for everyone here and now, not wait for some alleged Messiah", sees that as incredibly dangerous competition, and so drives the media.
Don't be silly. It's more likely to be Cthulhu... or, given where I'm posting this, the New Management.
or lost their colouring after birth.
Both of my kids came out somewhat purple at first. My son turned somewhat red for a few days till we got his bilirubin fixed. He was 4 weeks early. My daughter turned deep purple as she was a bit over 6 week early and her blood flow through her lungs wasn't yet started. So they had to figure that out and give her the hormone to fix it.
Except in the last four+, they've been blatant about it, simply ignoring the law, rather than playing around it.
Well we disagree. More blatant, yes. But it has always been ignored. It is all about who is doing what to who as to who is wrong and who is right. To say the RCC wasn't deeply involved in politics in much of the 100+ years of the US is just nuts. More subtle than the evangelicals? I'll buy that.
And others.
The adoration of "castor canadensis" or its ur-father the great "Castoroides" is more likely than the adoration of Cthulhu.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castoroides
Hopefully, more people outside the US get the idea that the problem isn't that the laws need to be simplified, it's that powerful organizations are very inadequately restrained as it is
They're not restrained at all. They're slightly more restrained than they would be if they were the de jure government, but that's "competing power structure" not a question of laws.
The point I've been after is not "simplify the laws" -- though that's probably desirable on "special cases are failure" specification quality grounds -- but that the laws need to be enforced, and the de facto church exception from the law needs to be removed.
Societies collapse when the great and good stop paying their taxes -- it doesn't matter why -- and the responses are to either try to get as much as possible secured prior to the collapse or to prevent the collapse by adopting a "pay your taxes or your head goes on the spike" set of policies, applied without fear or favour as the phrase goes. Churches aren't the only place to start with that in the US but they're certainly a place to start.
The RCC? Hell, the Sudden Badtastes, and all the rest of the extremist Protestant churches in the US that really want that "Christian" Ayatollah-you-so.
And they got really serious in the late seventies. Before, I don't remember religion being a Big Thing in campaigns... except, of course, for JFK, who was RC.
Niala: Not in Canada. Jagmeet Singh is a Sikh
I don't know if it is as obvious in Canada, though at least as an MP Jagmeet Singh reflects that his start (provincially) was a heavily Sikh part of Ontario (Peel Region is the least-white part of the GTA with 62.3% visible minority)
And while I will give credit to the NDP for choosing him, it was a weak group of candidates who ran against him (the NDP is, like many of the parties, lacking in potential leaders).
And all that needs to be known is that the NDP did worse in the election under his leadership against a scandal plagued Liberal Party that ended up with a minority government - too many people will not vote for the NDP with (choose your poison) non-white or non-Christian leader.
Troutwaxer: And there are a number of Muslim members of Congress or various state legislatures/senates, and of course places like New York and Los Angeles routinely elect Jews. I'm sure there are Hindu and Buddhist politicians in the U.S., though I don't know any by name.
The research page linked above gives 2 Muslims, 3 Buddhists, and 1 Hindu along with 33 Jewish members of congress, out of 533 (and 1 lonely no religion). But Congress remains 90% Christian.
So yes, the 2 parties bend if there are large local non-Christian voters or if the person is popular enough - but in general you need to at least claim to be Christian to get through the selection process.
Graydon @ 1034: The objection is to the apparent determination to give specific religions special standing in law or practice; not only the special tax status, but the US requirement to be publicly christian for public office (for example), or the de facto funding of the catholic church from public coffers. (Or the willingness to revert to the UK's de jure status as a theocracy. Or the rest of the long list.)
FWIW, the "US requirement to be publicly christian" is not a part of U.S. law. In fact, by law it's the opposite.
Looking at the current "religious" makeup of the U.S. Congress, I found 1 Atheist [came out as a "Humanist" after he was elected] (1 House); 3 Buddhists (2 House, 1 Senate); 4 Hindus (4 House); 34 Jews (25 House, 9 Senate); 10 Mormons (6 House, 4 Senate) and 4 Muslims (4 House) ... and 18 members of Congress (House or Senate) who refused to specify whether they had religious beliefs or not.
Nominal "Christians" are over represented in Congress, but there's no "requirement" to be "Christian" to be elected ... or to be President for that matter.
RiccardoS @ 1049:h Seems to me that the most sensible way of regulating religion organizations should be to license them, just like many other activities.
May be, but it would never stand up to a First Amendment test here in the U.S.
JBS @ 1128 RED PARAGRAPH
It's no surprise that was included in the U.S. constitution, since the colonies were rebelling against the U.K.'s Test Act, which made things hard for anyone who was not a true blue Anglican.
Forgot:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Test_Act
Before, I don't remember religion being a Big Thing in campaigns... except, of course, for JFK, who was RC.
That was not the same thing. That was about can we elect someone who takes orders from the pope. Which he did not.
But in local elections across the US, churches of various stripes have always had a huge influence in who the pew sitters voted for. It varied by city and/or state but has been there for a very long time. RCC was big in it even if you didn't run into it. Ditto the mainline protestant faiths. And for sure the LDS variations.
Now they may not have said "vote for Joe Dokes" from the pulpit but they said who to vote for non the less.
Heteromeles @ 1093: I think you might want to reread what I wrote. I put scions of religious institutions in the same category as other groups banned from leadership roles: active duty military, convicted felons, and the mentally ill. The same general argument applies to all of them. While most of them at least potentially have a positive role in society, they are regarded as too risky. I think the US founders had quite enough of religious persecution to want to instantiate it here, although that hasn't stopped their heirs from trying.
On Jefferson's part (although he was out of town during the Constitutional Convention - Ambassador to France) it seems to be equal parts not wanting religion interfering in government and not wanting government telling religion what to do.
Niala @ 1130: JBS @ 1128 RED PARAGRAPH
It's no surprise that was included in the U.S. constitution, since the colonies were rebelling against the U.K.'s Test Act, which made things hard for anyone who was not a true blue Anglican.
That may have had some influence, but the main impetus was simply the different in religious backgrounds of the former colonists - Puritans in Massachusetts, Not so pure dissenters in Rhode Island, Quakers in Pennsylvania, Roman Catholics in Maryland and Episcopalians (Anglicans) in Virginia ... and whatever the majority was in "New Holland" before it became New York.
None of them wanted to see the other former colonies' religion "established" as the state religion in the new nation, and have to pay taxes to support a church they didn't agree with. And the only way to do that is to not have a state religion at all.
Plus all those "enlightened" gentlemen who didn't believe in ANY of those churches ...
Nominal "Christians" are over represented in Congress, but there's no "requirement" to be "Christian" to be elected ... or to be President for that matter.
It's one of those things that there is no official requirement, but it either is an advantage or becomes an unofficial requirement by those selecting who gets the privilege of actually running for office.
Alternatively, those who aren't religious aren't interested in being a politician, which would be strange.
Because with Christians making up only 65% of the US, yet holding 90% of Congress, certainly indicates there is a requirement of some sort.
(26% of the US claims no formal religious identity, yet despite being over 1/4 of the population they have only 1 member of Congress).
So the net result is that if you want to run for office then you, with few exceptions, need either be Christian or pretend to be Christian, to get the job you want, just like many LGBTQ people pretend to be non-LGBTQ in order to pursue a chosen career path.
I have noticed the out-of-sight-straight-up thing, even in relatively modest trainers. Seems like the fastest possible way to lose a plane, but I can sort of see getting back it into sight as part of the challenge. The local rules are "line of sight at all times" here, though there are lots of questions about enforcement.
Re: 'Nixon was an unusual man.'
Interesting paper - thanks! I've read the first 20 pages so far - also took a quick look to see how far the author followed Nixon's career. Several good quotes too, like this one:
'Henry argued that frequent display of civil religion in general was a sign of national spiritual malaise; all instrumentalized notions of power led to “reliance on unjust means to defeat all opposing views and priority of political power over God.”228 Once religion had become separated from tradition, both the left and the right sought to “exploit the nation’s possibilities for selfish gain.” But “fundamentalism,” Henry wrote, went too far, putting too much “faith in democracy as the political exegesis of revealed religion.”229'
Another comment that struck me was that Nixon's personal, internalized religion wasn't driven by philosophy but by achievement. Yeah - ethics can be so-o-o-o annoying.
Yes, well that’s why one doesn’t use power for long enough to actually lose sight... (Which might be useful advice to politicians?) The hotline is designed for a competition class that requires a burst climb, 4 laps of a 100m ‘track’, under a height limit on exit, then convert your remaining energy to height and thermal for X minutes and finally a precision landing (time and location). Thought the details of the rules may have changed a little since I last looked. Imagine vehicle event where you start with a drag race, use the gained speed to do four unpowered laps of Silverstone, then have to power-off climb a steep hill, etc. The serious model setups are very, very, expensive, obviously. And you need 4-6 identical ones in case of damage. Ouch.
For fun flying my Seledkin is excellent; it’s a 20 year ago world championship design that I seriously under-power (2hp instead of 4-6) and fly rather less excitingly. Still all carbon fibre though. And, dammit, I didn’t get to fly it all this stupid year. Grrr.
Might I suggest there is another factor here?
It appears that to many self-identified Christian voters, a candidate's not being (the right kind of) Christian is a deal-breaker. A non-Christian will not get their votes, no matter what policies and personal appeal they might have. There are large swathes of the USA where this would be enough to ensure that only purported Christians get elected, and candidate selection takes this into account.
In the so-called West, Christianity is the only religion where adherents are numerous enough for this to be a factor. In other parts of the world, other religions might be relevant.
JHomes
It appears that to many self-identified Christian voters, a candidate's not being (the right kind of) Christian is a deal-breaker. A non-Christian will not get their votes, no matter what policies and personal appeal they might have. There are large swathes of the USA where this would be enough to ensure that only purported Christians get elected, and candidate selection takes this into account.
Yep, which is the point I was making - there is no official requirement to be Christian, but it is an unofficial requirement by the people selecting the candidates. There are 1 or 2 exceptions, but otherwise the only time the Christian requirement gets "suspended" is when there is a large enough block of voters of a different religion.
And part of that is the built in bias of the relevant church's telling their members to "go vote for candidate X", and in order to qualify you need to be Christian - and getting out that vote leads to winning.
Or, to put it another way, until the church's are properly removed from the political process you will never get religion out of government - because in getting the religious leaders blessing the candidate ends up promising something if elected.
Which also helps to explain one of the reasons Trump remained relatively popular - despite everything he delivered the Supreme Court to the religious extremists, and they in turn delivered their support to him - everything else was window dressing as far as they were concerned.
It appears that to many self-identified Christian voters, a candidate's not being (the right kind of) Christian is a deal-breaker.
So much so that supporting the wrong kind of Xtian can cost them their jobs:
A Southern Baptist minister was told his license to the gospel ministry would "not be renewed" at a Texas church following a Facebook post endorsing Joe Biden for president in September, according to the Baptist Standard.
Bumgardner received a string of angry criticism over the post, with comments accusing him of "supporting murderers" and not being a "biblical Christian."
Bumgardner told the Baptist Standard that he believes the outcome would've been different had he endorsed Trump.
https://www.newsweek.com/texas-baptist-minister-lifelong-republican-loses-license-after-endorsing-biden-1556034
That was not the same thing. That was about can we elect someone who takes orders from the pope. Which he did not.
This is an interesting contrast with the situation of the development of self government in the Australian colonies in the early 19th century. Catholic Emancipation was still a new thing in both London and Dublin. Many prominent early players in the political and legal systems first in NSW then in the other colonies as they achieved self government were in fact Irish Catholics. A great example to study is John PLunkett, who was prosecuted in the Myall Creek Massacre case. There's a (relatively) recent treatment of the events, including a potted biography of Plunkett by a former NSW Crown Prosecutor:
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/32704445-murder-at-myall-creek
The interesting thing is how much the repression of Catholics in the UK was consciously avoided here, specifically by avoiding mentioning religion at all in defining the institutions that brought rule of law and democracy into effect in the Australian colonies. Sure there was a heap of tension between Catholics and Protestants in the colonies, but (possibly because of the larger proportion of Irish-descended citizens) this seems to have resulted in less specific advantage for any specific group in politics. And we definitely got all the non-conformists and other denominations. More telling would have been the wave of Chartists, who genuinely were repressed in the 19th century UK and many of whom came as political prisoners. Enough stayed after their terms to found a strong democracy movement, even if their idea of religious freedom was to tolerate all the protestant denominations equally. Of course there were plenty of Muslim and East Asian colonists too, right from early days, though it's more challenging to see the 19th century Brits who were running those self governing colonies according equal treatment to everyone from everywhere.
The point is that you don't need to call out religion as a specific thing to achieve religious freedom. And while I agree with a lot of Frank's arguments in this space, I think his representation of religious persecution in the UK is a bit stretched (although I understand this reading is mostly a wired-in aspect of US national mythology). More in the specifics than the overview, sure, but I think it's hard to talk about the topic without a granular view of how things changed over time and exactly who was persecuting exactly whom. For certain groups, then as now, being denied the right to persecute certain others counted as intolerable oppression..
it's more challenging to see the 19th century Brits who were running those self governing colonies according equal treatment to everyone from everywhere.
Worth noting that quite a lot of the country was technically-Australia and the British took a long time to conquer the whole place. Up round Broome especially the Chinese did not really bother with the British until the latter had enough guns on the ground to make them. The oldest Mosque in Australia is very old by immigrant standards.
One slight amusement is that Australia doesn't have an official language, because it seems stupid to list more than 100 of them but even the most vehement white blindfold types are not willing to admit in legislation that it's English... all the law is in English, to be officially recognised it has to be in English and so on. But there is no official language, just as we're ruled by someone with her own religion, all our official prayers are of that religion, but we don't have an official religion.
Erk who was prosecuted ... that should be who prosecuted or who was the prosecutor. I was editing from one to the other and I guess I got distracted by something shiny in the middle of doing that and forgot to fix it before posting. I mean, you probably got that from context, but still... :/
Which also helps to explain one of the reasons Trump remained relatively popular - despite everything he delivered the Supreme Court to the religious extremists, and they in turn delivered their support to him - everything else was window dressing as far as they were concerned.
That's not necessarily a Christian/Xtian issue as a Republican issue. This is one of the few areas where I agree with criticisms of the "lame-stream" media. The particular problem I have is that reporting on presidential races, especially, is heavily biased towards the competition between Republicans and Democrats. Money raised and poll numbers are over-covered, issues and positions are rarely mentioned if at all. This leads to the idea that politics is a team sport. IQ.45 was characterized by some ordinary Republicans voters in 2016 as a "jackass, but he's out jackass." This is the logic of sports, not politics. You root for your team, even if they're a bunch of corrupt incompetents, because they're your team. Defections are punished.
I think some of the voting for Agent Orange broke along this line. The fact that he was on their team was the primary decider, and everything else was justification.
This is profoundly stupid, but here we are.
Some details on how the FireEye breach was discovered, because it's both fascinating and making political waves. The full article[1] also says that the SolarWinds breach dated back to mid/late 2019, or earlier. (Via @thegrugq, tx)
The article presumes that this FireEye incident (triggering a MFA new device warning) involved the same hackers; this being 2020 perhaps not (heck, perhaps they had detected and were hijacking the existing compromise :-). Whether or not the same, the new device warning exposed the SolarWinds based breach, and the Russians, whether they were responsible for the SolarWinds based breach or not, are seriously embarrassed (and might have to deal with sanctions, since they're the obvious culprit), and the US has internal political maneuverings related to what appears (without solid attribution) to be a significant Russian espionage (at least) operation. That is, the effect of the new device warning was for FireEye to find the SolarWinds software that had been tampered with, and this discovery caused some significant subsequent political effects. Unplanned, or planned? The year is 2020.. :-) Oh, and Microsoft flexed their considerable corporate muscles to neutralize the breaching software, though many systems presumably remain compromised 'cause the breaching software is no longer required.[1] Hackers last year conducted a 'dry run' of SolarWinds breach (Kim Zetter, December 18, 2020) The hackers distributed malicious files from the SolarWinds network in October 2019, five months before previously reported files were sent to victims through the company’s software update servers. The October files, distributed to customers on Oct. 10, did not have a backdoor embedded in them, however, in the way that subsequent malicious files that victims downloaded in the spring of 2020 did, and these files went undetected until this month. “We’re thinking they wanted to test whether or not it was going to work and whether it would be detected. So it was more or less a dry run,” a source familiar with the investigation told Yahoo News. “They took their time. They decided to not go out with an actual backdoor right away. That signifies that they’re a little bit more disciplined and deliberate.”
JHomes Actually, even in "the West" being the wrong sort of muslim can get you into trouble with others - never mind officially "muslim" countries, of course. Hell, even here, being the wrong sort of muslim got one innocent man murdered by the bigots.
A Southern Baptist minister was told his license to the gospel ministry would "not be renewed" at a Texas church
Is this is an accurate quote this guy is in lala land or engaging in extreme hyperbole. The SBC has no official hierarchy. And not much of an unofficial one. And the concept of a "license" is just bizarre. Says he who grew up in an SBC church. An SBC church can "call" anyone to be a pastor. And you don't have to be a pastor to preach from the pulpit.
Plus there was no history of the Roman Catholic Church trying to impose its rule on the country, and even promoting invasions to overthrow the government. Indeed, the Jacobite rebellions were seen (rightly or wrongly) as attempts to impose its rule on the UK. While the Test Act was excessive and remained on the books far too long, there WERE good reasons to demand primary loyalty to the sovereign (i.e. country), not the Pope.
There still are, in the case of a good many sects, of several religions and none.
For certain groups, then as now, being denied the right to persecute certain others counted as intolerable oppression.
Among the grievances the American colonists had was the UK's insistence that treaties with indigenous nations be honoured, and the intolerable toleration of Popery among the French colonials in Quebec.
That's not necessarily a Christian/Xtian issue as a Republican issue.
While there is a lot of truth to what you say, where politics is a team sport (not unique to the US), Trump was sort of different.
The Republicans were known for courting the religious right during elections, but then returning to their business/rich foundations after the election with maybe a couple of scraps to the religious right while they were in power.
Trump changed this - he continued to court the religious right while in office and he delivered for them in a way previous Republican office holders didn't. And thus despite everything else he did, they remained loyal.
She got herself in hot water by being a complete arsehole. Among many other things, she's expressed the view that acceptance of trans-women erases the existence of biological women. How's that for nazi-adjacent rhetoric?
David L @ 1149:
Is this is an accurate quote this guy is in lala land or engaging in extreme hyperbole. The SBC has no official hierarchy. And not much of an unofficial one. And the concept of a "license" is just bizarre. Says he who grew up in an SBC church. An SBC church can "call" anyone to be a pastor. And you don't have to be a pastor to preach from the pulpit.
Appears to be a state "Southern Baptist" group in Texas, not the national "Southern Baptist Convention".
Lars - "she" - whom? Which post are you responding to?
Niala Arthur Wellesly?
JK Rowling. Sorry, I lost the reply link to your post @775.
But yes, the way she writes is very reminiscent of alt-righters and white nationalists. And trans-men, according to her, are confused women who need help.
She deserved every bit of push-back she got.
:Lars Disagree - she's agreeing with The Boss ( Who is quite sympathetic to "trans" in person ) ...but: But - quote... "I don't care how trans it says it is, I don't want something with a penis in a women's' lavatory!" As a male, I hasten to add that I am merely passing this on, I admit to confusion. It is quite possible that there is no single "right answer" to these difficulties, actually. One size will not fit all. Maybe.
she's agreeing with The Boss
Who is "The Boss"?
"I don't want something with a penis in a women's' lavatory!"
"Something". Nice dehumanizing language there. And how is she going to accomplish that? Mandatory checking of people's genitals before entering?
It is quite possible that there is no single "right answer" to these difficulties
Yes there is, trans-women are women. There are no difficulties, other than some people's feelings being hurt. Medical and psychological sciences are on the side of trans people.
There's a lot of research in the area. Here's a random search result:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200205084203.htm
A big issue is that people like Rowling equate sex and gender, although they are two different things. Even if that were the case, 1.7% of all people are born non-typical, i.e. they don't have XX or XY chromosome pairs, but some form of XXX, XXY, XYY, etc.
The science supporting trans-gendered people aside, supporting them just makes sense. Over half of all people who have experienced gender dysphoria have attempted suicide.
Rowling's most egregious lie is that trans-women pose a physical threat to cis-women. There's just no evidence supporting that.
MY friends who are Harry Potter fans tell me that J.K. Rowling is no longer canon. They've apparently come to the conclusion that the fictional universe is more important than it's creator, and she can just fuck off. I find the conclusion that the creator is excluded from her own world to be a rather interesting phenomenon.
Her language is unacceptable, but your statement (*) is quite simply wrong. The issue is complex, and there are many ways in which transexuals shouldn't or even cannot be treated as their preferred sex. Consider medical treatment and competitive sports for a start; if you don't know why I say the latter, look up the reasons the Olympics introduced their chromosome testing.
"Yes there is, trans-women are women. There are no difficulties, other than some people's feelings being hurt. Medical and psychological sciences are on the side of trans people."
Lars "The Boss" a.k.a. "her Indoors" - my wife -who, compared to me, made a sensible job decision & is quite well-paid - works in Tax for a largish firm - VERY straight-up-&-down financially speaking. Very loud & justifiably so, on the subject of women's rights & pay & access to medical services. I must admit, her stance on "Trans" startled me, especially as we've met several Trans people & she is not bothered, at all.
Yes there is, trans-women are women. Really? Sure about that? NOTE: You may be right, you may be wrong - I DO NOT KNOW - but you are proclaiming certainties in a very grey area, or so it seems to me.
I see where you are going with the sex/gender thing - & I tend to agree: Consider how homosexuals of either sex/gender were treated when I was born ( 1946) compared to now! Consider how most people are comfortable inside their own bodies, whether "Straight"/"Homo"/"Bi" - I have a suspicion that Ian Banks was correct in "Player of Games" in that 100% unisexual people are actually very rare - a lot of it is cultural conditioning ... though society still hasn't caught up with that one yet .... Trans is a n other whole area - about which I know very little - I'm simply grateful that I do not have that problem-set - it must be ghastly.
Your last is an unproven assertion, I'm afraid - or so I opine.
SEE ALSO "EC" - most unusually - I agree with him - as I have tried to say above - I will repeat what he says, for emphasis, OK? The issue is complex, and there are many ways in which transexuals shouldn't or even cannot be treated as their preferred sex. Consider medical treatment and competitive sports for a start; if you don't know why I say the latter, look up the reasons the Olympics introduced their chromosome testing.
Very very complex & difficult & yes, unsettling.
there are many ways in which transexuals shouldn't or even cannot be treated as their preferred sex.
Well, I'm discussing trans-gender people. A trans-gender person doesn't have to be trans-sexual. And you're doing the sex=gender thing. Both modern medicin and psychology recognize that sex does not equal gender.
Consider medical treatment
I don't. I expect people to get the treatment suited for them. For example, I have low blood pressure, meaning that I cannot get the same treatment as other men. But I'm still a man.
and competitive sports
Are you saying sports is the defining factor of womanhood? What about cis-women who are barred from competing, are they not women? In conclusion:
your statement is quite simply wrong
No it isn't. The science is on my side. It's up to you to back up your assertion.
I DO NOT KNOW
Well, there's a solution to that, isn't there. Here's one place to start reading:
https://www.glaad.org/transgender/transfaq
Wikipedia has a page of course:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transgender
There are tons of other resources. Most psychiatric and psychological institutions have reading material, there's a lot of of research papers.
We can go the philosophical route, if the science isn't your thing. What utility does it serve to deny a trans-person their identity? None. It's just an unnecessary cruelty to do so.
How do you define "woman" to include all cis-women and exclude all trans-women? You can't. The only valid definition of a woman is anybody who identifies as a woman. Try any other definition and you're going to paint yourself into a corner.
I claim that trans-women are women because that's the only logical and rational conclusion, however you look at the issue.
Your last is an unproven assertion
It's not. I'm rejecting a claim. The burden of proof is not on me. Are you saying trans-women pose a physical threat? You'd better come up with some good evidence for that.
Very very complex & difficult
No, not really. Not more complex than anything else in life.
& yes, unsettling
Unsettling to you maybe. But that's your problem.
You are SO CERTAIN - with an almost religious fervour. You know my opinions on religion, don't you? I am not certain at all - I know I don't know enough. ( See also Socrates ) I also know that you don't know, you are just shouting, a common behaviour amongst "believers"
See here: How do you define "woman" to include all cis-women and exclude all trans-women? You can't. The only valid definition of a woman is anybody who identifies as a woman. Try any other definition and you're going to paint yourself into a corner. Oh, really - as EC says, DNA might tell you different.
"Unsettling" - not for me, actually - unsettling for the poor people trapped inside the dilemma, because their chromosomes or other internal signals are confusing. They have my sympathy. You appear to have no sympathy, because you are certain.
I've spent the last few years dealing with what happens in sport due to what is happening with gender and sexuality and the whole damn thing, most directly as a Roller Derby referee, but also through other sports, such as Figure Skating.
Aaaaand it's a insert your profanity of choice.
In Roller Derby, they seem to have finally gotten it right - modulo someone pointing something out tomorrow/on the weekend/next week - but we haven't been doing much this year. My mob run/ran the biggest mixed/gender-neutral tournament in the Southern Hemisphere (possibly the world :-) ) and we had to deal with the crap when the insurance agents for the sport decided that teams could only field thus-and-so many penises and thus-and-so many vaginas per jam. This understandably freaked out and pissed-off all the people who don't fit the nice, simple, old-fashioned binary rules, and the officials, we certainly didn't want to be looking into peoples pants, or counting chromosomes (yes, I know), so it didn't happen. Sadly many of the people push these rules are those who are benefiting from the changes in attitudes, but seem not to want to allow too much freedom. (Ask a bi-sexual how they were treated by the gay community in the 1970s/80s/90s..., perhaps still are, for an example.)
Now, skipping from a quiet, small, fringe sport, let's jump up to the big time, the Olympics. When a bunch of people who administer these sports get together, and take off their hats, and talk amongst themselves without fear of being quoted in the newspapers, or to the membership of their various sports, sooner or later the gender question gets raised, usually prefaced these days by, "Can we make sure no-one from the IAAF who supports that ban is here?" And, in those I have been involved with, the "best" solution that anybody has been able to come up with is to extend the Paralympic classifications to cover everything, and then handicap individuals, or structure teams, based on that. So if you are a baseline XY who identifies as male and has a testosterone level of a and a femur-to-height ratio of b and mass x kg etcetera, then in this particular sport you compete as a Type 7c, but if you want to play that one you'll be classed as a Type 1a.
Do I need to say this isn't going to play well in Paducah???
Nothing is simple about it, and saying, "Use their preferred pronouns, or neutral ones if you aren't sure," is just not getting it.
Looks like there'll be a deal after all. Someone just caved;
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-boris-johnson-eu-latest-b1778214.html
"Brexit trade deal imminent, says EU diplomat
Officials say talks are in ‘the end phase’ amid reports of agreement on level playing field"
ljones
Greg: I'm going to cut you a little slack here, but, from the top:
a) J. K. Rowling has outed herself as a raving transphobic bigot.
b) In this, she's in line with editorial policy at most of the right-wing newspapers and the BBC, who are all pursuing an anti-transgender witch hunt.
c) There's American money behind this, from the Mercer/Koch/Heritage Foundation right wing end of things, with added Evangelicals.
d) The Christianists, having failed to prevent marriage equality gaining traction, seem to have decided that transgender people are a vulnerable group who can be used as a wedge to split the LGBT+ movement. In this respect, where you see anti-trans rhetoric you should note that it's using the same talking points as anti-gay invective a couple of decades ago, and it comes from the same people.
e) If you see the "LGB Alliance" at work, you should be aware that it's actually a Christian-funded false front group promoting anti-trans hate speech.
f) Do not spread anti-transgender propaganda here. It will get you an immediate Red Card (if I happen to see it -- right now, a fairly close friend of mine just died and I don't have a lot of time for policing the blog).
Elderly Cynic: Red card.
You may think you're discussing a topic honestly, but it's the camel's nose for anti-LGBT+ hate speech in the tent, and I'm not having it.
Also, you're really going to take the opinions of a sports committee as a useful comment on human identity? Really? I'd thought better of you.
Charlie: a) Maybe, perhaps - other females I know are at least partly supporting her, though I know they are sympathetic to the problems of trans people. b) Unfortunately true - agreed. c) Euw - didn't know that. d) What a surprise! That really does not help anything remotely resembling reasoned argument. e) Who? Not heard of them - I think - thanks for the warning. f) I wasn't - I hope. As I said (above) it's difficult, it's confusing & I am NOT claiming to have any answers at all.
Oh yes Obligatory wiki reference page list https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sex_chromosome_anomalies
Charlie Stross @ 1167: d) The Christianists, having failed to prevent marriage equality gaining traction, seem to have decided that transgender people are a vulnerable group who can be used as a wedge to split the LGBT+ movement. In this respect, where you see anti-trans rhetoric you should note that it's using the same talking points as anti-gay invective a couple of decades ago, and it comes from the same people.
And it's the same rhetoric they employed against women's rights before that & civil rights earlier still. Ain't nothing changed except the identity of the current target.
You are SO CERTAIN - with an almost religious fervour.
Fuck you. I have given links to science and reading materials. I have backed up my claims. You hide behind your ignorance like it's some kind of shield. You assert that trans-people are a threat, yet refuse to back up your claim. You're behaving like a right-wing troll.
I am not certain at all - I know I don't know enough. ( See also Socrates )
Then fucking EDUCATE YOURSELF!
I also know that you don't know
No you don't, because you're ignorant, as you yourself stated!
you are just shouting
I wasn't, I was being very patient with you, not that you deserved it.
See here: ...
Yes, that's called PHILOSOPHY. Look it up, why don't you. Learn something.
Oh, really - as EC says, DNA might tell you different.
FFS, SEX ISN'T GENDER. And both are spectrums! Stop being so bloody stupid and ignorant.
unsettling for the poor people trapped inside the dilemma
And yet, you refuse to support them, just like any other bigot.
You appear to have no sympathy, because you are certain.
What the actual fuck are you on about?! I have showed with every post my support for trans-gender people. I'm certain that they are deserving of human rights, while you seem to think otherwise. Go fuck yourself.
I also know that you don't know
Oh, and you know who else also play this "you can't know" bullshit? Religious people.
Oh, and you know who else also play this "you can't know" bullshit? Religious people.
Well, now that you and Greg have pushed each other's hottest buttons (gender identity and accusing an atheist of being dogmatically religious), is there anything else to add? If not, let's not red card out of this and, perhaps, chill? Contemplate Jupiter and Saturn, slowly drawing apart after what appeared to us to be a passionate embrace? That sort of thing.
Lars appears to need an Anger Management course. Either that or he (?) is deliberately trying to prod me, so that I can get a "Red Card" - not falling for that one.
I think he's been pretty restrained. Not everyone accepts dick-waving as a valid argument, and when someone does it constantly and pretends that's exactly what it is, well yeah that'll invite a bit of colourful language. Speaking hypothetically of course.
Your blog, your rules, and I take your point; though I still think that such assertions are seriously harming the cause of 'non-traditional' gender people, which I support as much as you do.
But there is no need to be offensive, by misrepresenting what I said. I have no time for the IOC's rules or procedures on this matter, and have not had since they were introduced.
So there is a deal, and the end is no longer nigh
Has anyone parsed anything of the details? Details seem to be scant
Lars appears to need an Anger Management course.
You insult me and pass judgment on me, and then you try to tone police me? Sorry, but that ship has sailed.
you are just shouting
I just realised how hypocritical this is, coming from you. You shout all the time, you have shouted at me several times. And now you want to complain? Unbelievable.
You accuse me of religious fervour, then you adopt the language of apologists.
You ignore my sources, and accuse me of making assertions, while you assert that trans-women are a physical threat without providing any evidence.
You're just a bundle of hypocricy today, aren't you.
Lost the link again. @1178 was a reply to Greg, should there be any doubt.
gender identity
Nope, my hottest button is anti-scientific bigotry.
accusing an atheist of being dogmatically religious
My accusation was a response to him calling me dogmatically religious. The pot calling the kettle black and all that.
Lars I have the deepest sympathy for people trapped, as they see it, in the "wrong" body. I've met several - I have no problems with them - but then I'm an 95-85% heterosexual XY male. My wife is very unhappy about all of it, when it comes to people with penis' coming into ladies toilets, though not with transgender people, as such - can you see the difference - OK? You have attributed to me things I have not proclaimed & - unlike you I am all too aware that this is a very "grey" & uncertain area - where you claim certainties that I do not see. Admission: I am very suspicious of any claims by psychiatrists, in any circumstances, as opposed to measurement of genomes or even experimental psychologists, who do, at least have evidence to back their claims. OK?
Now then, can we DROP THE SUBJECT?
Greg It’s not at all gray. It’s not remotely gray. You should stfu and let people do their thing. You or your wife simply don’t have any kind of say in what restroom anyone uses .
Actually, she does - I don't care about me, though.
I found Natalie Wynn's dismantling of several TERF arguing points very good. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pTPuoGjQsI Yes, I know she is a controversial figure (not getting into that here, your favourite search engine will point you to as many details as anyone might want), but this video is still worth watching.
I have the deepest sympathy for people trapped, as they see it, in the "wrong" body.
These are weasel words.
but then I'm an 95-85% heterosexual XY male.
Why is this important? You're insinuating that they pose a threat to others. I pressed you on this before, but you refused to answer.
My wife is very unhappy about all of it, when it comes to people with penis' coming into ladies toilets,
How does she know? Is she patting down everyone at the entrance?
though not with transgender people, as such - can you see the difference - OK?
Sure I can see the difference, but your wife's feelings are not relevant.
You have attributed to me things I have not proclaimed
You say that, yet you won't tell me what those things are.
unlike you I am all too aware
Yet you haven't demonstrated it.
where you claim certainties that I do not see.
I'm certain because I have looked at the science, the philosophy, and the humanist aspects. I have come to the conclusion that trans-women are women and trans-men are men. You're free to question my certainty of course, but I expect you to come up with an actual argument, not allusions to "uncertainties".
Admission: I am very suspicious of any claims by psychiatrists, in any circumstances, as opposed to measurement of genomes or even experimental psychologists, who do, at least have evidence to back their claims.
Did you look at the scientific paper I linked? I'm guessing not. Here's an excerpt:
"Some of the first biological evidence of the incongruence transgender individuals experience, because their brain indicates they are one sex and their body another, may have been found in estrogen receptor pathways in the brain of 30 transgender individuals."
Is that concrete enough for you? There are plenty papers like that, indicating that gender is rooted in the brain.
Now then, can we DROP THE SUBJECT?
Sure, but I want you to answer one last question: Are trans-women women and trans-men men?
You can answer this question three ways:
Feel free to ignore the question, but I will interpret that as an "I don't know" answer. But hey, what do you care what I think anyway, right?
+1 for Natalie Wynn. I think her videos are a good starting point for getting into the philosophical aspects of gender, gender norms, etc.
I'm fond of "The Aesthetic" and how it breaks down the performance of gender:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1afqR5QkDM
LARS STOP IT "They" are not weasel words, actually. My wife feels very uneasy about transsexuals in lavatories. She's not bothered about them anywhere else - as I said, we've met one or two.
Your question is interesting. Are trans-women women? What do their chromosomes say? Ditto for men. [ Allowing for all the variations I linked to above, of course, totalling 16 sub-possibilities ]
"They" are not weasel words, actually.
No but "my deepest sympathies", "as they see it", and "in the 'wrong' [note quotations marks] body" are.
My wife feels very uneasy about transsexuals in lavatories.
The validity of trans-people does not hinge on your wife's feelings. This is a very pathetic excuse for denying someone their identity.
Again I'm asking the question: Are trans-women a threat? Are you going to answer or will you continue to dodge like the coward you are?
She's not bothered about them anywhere else - as I said, we've met one or two.
Yes, just like you can't be racist because you have a black friend.
Your question is interesting.
So are you going to fucking answer it?
Are trans-women women? What do their chromosomes say? Ditto for men.
Ok, so it's number three then. It's disappointing, most transphobes I meet can at least stand up for their convictions, but your failure to answer even simple questions really is something else.
Your science denial would be even more disappointing, but that's what I've come to expect from you.
STOP IT
Hey, what's with the shouting? You can walk away whenever you like. Nobody's stopping you.
Keith the USAian here.
At the risk of cloud-seeding another shit-storm and re: Unholy Guy's #1177, do any of you UKish folks have enough details on "the Deal" to guess how things will turn out based on what you know? (All I've heard is an estimated 6% -decadal drop in GDP.)
Thanks and Happy Holidays,
Keith
I would reckon 2% - but ongoing .....
Just an FYI by the way: Trans-sexual people have gone through surgery; a trans-sexual woman doesn't have a penis, so no worries for your wife there.
Sorry, but that won’t do. Not because anyone trans is any different to me; absolutely not, but because some trans people are idiots and worse (it is idiotic that I should have to say this, but I guess I do). I will give you an ugly example: I have a friend who got caught in an e-mail flurry - I don’t know how her address got spread about, but it did. She is about my age (60s), and gay. One of the things she got was someone said he/she wanted to fuck her; she replied ‘no’, and this person wrote back that her refusal meant she was ‘transphobic’ (as well as some other shite). Her response, as well as anger, was that after all these years she still has to deal with men - and in the circumstances that is exactly what this is about - who think that if they stick their penis into her vagina they will change how she feels and thinks about sex and sexuality. It doesn’t matter if the creep, here, wears a dress or talks ‘liberated’ talk, they are still a creep, certainly threatening, and possibly a substantial threat. That - the everlasting menace, is why a lot of women, gay and not, think leting ‘a cock in a frock’ into exclusively female social space is dangerous and should be stopped. And before anyone imagines I am naive or short of experience I should say that I do know complicated sexuality (with joy, anger, misery and frustration - all of them), and I don’t, inside myself, know gender confusion, although a lot of my friends do. The argument then, is not about which of us is what, or what mixture of sex or gender, but how do we supress creeps, and keep them out of our lives, and that is, centrally, the point of feminist space. There are some bits which are secondary here, but part of the pragmatic justification for women only spaces is that they give more people a chance at learning political and social skills. So far as I am concerned, we need everybody we can get; and having people (generally brought up men) let into those spaces with skills and attitudes they (we) have absorbed from infancy, does screw-up the learning process for a lot of people brought up timid, or backgrounding, or diffident, or a bit deferential - who are disproportionately female - and that inhibition spoils the development of people’s abilities. That means we: ‘everybody’, or ‘the world’, is worse off, because fewer people end up good at those committees, or caucuses, or whatever, or even effective at making workplace arguments. So, I am inclined to feel/think exclusive feminist environments are a good thing, and sticking masculine things (like that creep) into them, is destructive. That ain’t to say trans-sex and trans-gender isn’t ordinary life, because it is, but the questions are ‘how do we fuck-off the creeps?’, without harming ordinary people (lipstick, as we do, and all that), and how do we keep the big gains we have got from feminism. I don’t know.
Sorry, but this is a fallacy of distribution, much as several others here have already pointed out. It might be difficult to appreciate due to the specific circumstances. I agree that there are creeps within many communities. I would suggest, however, that creeps are far harder to eject when they align to norms and take on a role of influence, and that even feminism itself harbours many who are not necessarily using their positions within their communities in good faith.
You describe a situation where your friend was abused online by an individual from a marginal community. What if we leave the essentialism* aside for a moment and consider parallels with incidents where members of different marginalised communities have unfortunately behaved abusively? This is a serious question about difference. Do we treat difference, that is, non-alignment to norms, as definitional for entire groups of people who might not have a lot else in common? If a woman has been abused or even raped by a black man and makes an association between that trauma and black men, surely we don't treat this as being a justification to treat all black men as more likely to rape than other men (even though this may have been the case once, and may still be the case in some places) and while we may be sympathetic to that woman's reaction, it isn't something we take as definitive. So how different are those situations really?
IMHO that's the crux of what the argument is about, and Lars and others above are arguing the consensus view arrived at over several decades by social sciences, psychology and medicine. Others are wavering between what they learned in high school biology in the 60s and deferring to their partner, who no doubt has her own views that she's capable of arguing elsewhere. Some bluntly assert that the biology they learned in the 50s is the only truth of the situation and the rest of us are just biased by our upbringing and social environment (even though most of us are in our 50s or 60s and grew up in the exact environment where their generation were the teachers).
My personal experience is that second wave definitely harbours any number of creeps, some of whom are women, and this is a largely incurable factor of human organisation. I'm sure the trans community does too, and not just among trans women (allies that fall into the more energetic "to beat our enemy we must become him" category are always a nuisance and I'd have thought unwelcome where they pop up) . Trans men tend to go unmentioned in these discussions, (massively unfair generalisation coming here...) they generally seem to prefer to just "pass" and get on with things, but I'm aware some are quite heavily involved with trans rights activism... How they relate the the arguments by the essentialists is a bit of an exercise for the reader.
Lars No - it isn't "number three" It's an answer based on something concrete that is quantifiable & measurable. And - therefore I know - something - an actual fact, rather than an opinion.
SOME trans-sexuals have had radical genital surgery, some have not. You are absolutely determined to shit all over me, simply because I don't have what you perceive as "true" answers - rather like the christians, muslims & communists in fact.
Read what Chris Blanchard has to say & then go away.
Damian - the biology I leant in the 60's took no account of the 16 variations I pointed to ... I like this idea of yours, though: an extension of patriarchy into a women's space. Yes, exactly & thank you.
I like this idea of yours, though: an extension of patriarchy into a women's space. Yes, exactly & thank you.
Well that's exactly the version that's problematic, isn't it? You have to think through how, exactly, someone so driven by their concept of self that they feel it necessary to undergo gender reassignment surgery is intrinsically an agent of patriarchy in a way that, say, Margaret Thatcher would not be. We deride essentialism precisely because it doesn't work in real science, and because we have quite a lot of information about how it works out for real people.
In contrast, in reality and in most contexts most second-wave and practically all third-wave feminists welcome trans women into the spaces they consider theirs, recognising that they too get a raw deal from patriarchy. And again contrast the experience of trans men, who frequently describe the most noticeable thing being how people suddenly take them completely seriously and treat them as intrinsically valuable in a way they were unused to. But also consider the figures about suicide and oppression measured in health outcomes, and think through what your own self image contains, especially whether you believe you value compassion or just prefer to stick to the ideas you know no matter how that involves others lives.
I have another example, this time not about a creep, so it might be more telling. I have a friend who is part of a gay theatre group which has gone out of its collective way to be wellcoming to trans people. Fair enough, but … . One trans person who is, by my friend’s account, charming, honest, fairly good at the theatrics, and decent, is now part of a women’s section, and is tending to lead it. That means this group, which my friend says includes several ‘timid old dykes’ has gone the way of all those millions of mixed male/female groups, all around the world, and is enacting that baked in norm, which is ‘masculine’ leadership.
‘Masculine’ and ‘feminine’ are socially constructed roles; we all have the capacity for either of them, and a lot more besides. There is plenty of solid research which shows how flexible our brains are during fetal development and childhood and even after we have our full kit of adult sexual equipment and hormones. Flexible yes, but, and this is the big but, some of what we are is baked into us by childhood experience in our societies. That includes unconscious ‘male’ leadership: forwardness, tendency to dominate, general pushiness, call it what you like, and equally unconscious ‘female’ deference: backgrounding, ‘search for agreement’, ‘not putting yourself forward’, and all the rest of it. That is what is happening here; this trans person, and the ‘timid dykes’, are enacting roles they have learnt through all of their lives, and thereby damaging their part of their theatre group.
That process: enacting unconscious biases and bad habits, is why we have policies in good workplaces: mess with recruitment, train people and sometimes even change our working practice. We can say, absolutely sincerely, that we are not misogynists or their victims, but if eighty percent of our senior managers are men then those unconscious habits are working. Can’t escape it. The exact same applies to racism: if nobody black gets on the theatre management board there is a high chance unconscious habits in all those well meaning people are part of the problem (amongst all the rest of the reasons).
Me, I’m a staunchly feminist man and angrily anti-racist but I know, and everybody with adequate self-awareness also knows, that we are tainted (a strong word, but I think it is appropriate), so we need to take action to minimise the damage.
That’s general, but with this person, in this theatre group, I think we have a special case. I know perfectly well that, were I in that group, I would tend to take it over - not intentionally and certainly not aggressively, but it would happen unless I got active opposition; that is just who I am, and if you are that way inclined it doesn’t go away, or hasn’t gone away, just because this person is male to female trans.
Because I am that sort of person, with all that ‘male’ baggage, I want to see ‘female’ only spaces, and that means deliberate policies - and I don’t know what those policies should be. I don’t want trans exclusion - hideous idea, damaging people who have often been badly hurt already, and seriously inconveniencing everybody, but unmediated openness can cause other harm, as here, and the risks must be addressed.
Before anyone gets into it, I know just how social groups develop hierarchies and how ‘right on’ rhetoric doesn’t stop it. That definitely includes women only groups, and talk about equality, ‘non hierarchical practice’ and so on can sometimes be a screen in front of vicious influence peddling. I know all that, but women only groups do have less of it, so more people in them get to have increased agency, self respect, trained confidence and all the rest of it, and that is why they are a good thing. Trans involvement ought to fit right in, because a lot of trans people feel, entirely reasonably, that they are outsiders, abused or victimised, but this example shows how that can go wrong.
My friend, who is a manager and seems to be an effective leader, has resigned from this group. She says she can’t bear what she sees.
Chris Blanchard Newspaper sub-headline saying something like "Transgenderism" is killing Lesbians ... or something to that effect! Um.
What a pleasant surprise, some honest and eloquent responses! Thank you Chris and Damian.
this person wrote back that her refusal meant she was ‘transphobic’ (as well as some other shite).
Yes, this is fucked up, and sexual harassement.
That - the everlasting menace, is why a lot of women, gay and not, think leting ‘a cock in a frock’ into exclusively female social space is dangerous and should be stopped.
I'm not denying that.
The argument then, is not about which of us is what, or what mixture of sex or gender, but how do we supress creeps, and keep them out of our lives, and that is, centrally, the point of feminist space.
Again, I'm with you.
There are some bits which are secondary here, but part of the pragmatic justification for women only spaces is that they give more people a chance at learning political and social skills.
How? This looks like a non-sequitor to me.
having people (generally brought up men) let into those spaces with skills and attitudes they (we) have absorbed from infancy, does screw-up the learning process for a lot of people brought up timid, or backgrounding, or diffident, or a bit deferential - who are disproportionately female - and that inhibition spoils the development of people’s abilities.
This looks like speculation on your part. What you're describing usually doesn't apply to trans-women. Quite the opposite, they tend to be very feminine. If anything, this sounds more like a failure of the education system, pushing gender norms on young people.
So, I am inclined to feel/think exclusive feminist environments are a good thing, and sticking masculine things (like that creep) into them, is destructive.
Sure, but you're looking at one discusting, misogynistic creep and extrapolate that to an entire class of people. I think it's problematic for several reasons.
First, the question "Is it dangerous to let trans-women into women's restrooms?" The few studies I can find say "no". Here's one article linking to a study:
No link between trans-inclusive policies and bathroom safety, study finds
Here's an article, with several linked sources, describing how not only are non-gendered restrooms fine for women, but how gendered restrooms can harm trans-people:
Debunking Bathroom Myths
Here's an article by a trans-woman writing about the same myths, with more sources, and describing what happened when she and other trans-women were assaulted in women's restrooms:
Fears around gender-neutral toilets are all in the mind
This a bit of a heavy read (pdf). I haven't finished it myself, but it goes through a lot of stuff, also about "sex-segregated" restrooms:
The Overdue Case Against Sex-Segregated Bathrooms
Then there's the question of excluding all trans-women from feminist spaces, as you put it. I don't see how that solves anything. First of all, I don't see how that will stop the actual creeps from doing what they want to do anyway. And generally speaking, collective punishment tends to go to bad places quickly. For one thing, it will never erase the stigma against trans-women. They will always be seen as second-class citizens.
Trans-women tend to be both feminine and feminist, so I don't know how good of an argument that is by itself.
What about the legal aspect? Trans-women have legally been women since 2005 in Great Britain. How much of a problem has that been? Do you want to overturn it?
In my experience, most women don't seem to have a problem with trans-women visiting their spaces. I don't know if that's an argument, just an observation.
Finally, what to do about it. The studies all seem to say that non-gendered restrooms are fine. If that's unacceptable, and since bathroom stalls are stupid anyway, why not mandate installment of private restrooms? In either case, I don't see a way for you to exclude trans-women from women's restrooms, neither practically nor legally.
Do we treat difference, that is, non-alignment to norms, as definitional for entire groups of people who might not have a lot else in common? If a woman has been abused or even raped by a black man and makes an association between that trauma and black men, surely we don't treat this as being a justification to treat all black men as more likely to rape than other men (even though this may have been the case once, and may still be the case in some places)
This is actually very good analogy. Not only are black men seen as more of a threat, a lot of them live in constant fear that a (usually white) woman will accuse them of a crime and call the police on them.
the idea that a trans woman is essentially a man, therefore her contribution is a extension of patriarchy into a women's space.
When in actuality the case is sort of the other way around: patriarchy is the reason trans-women can't go into men's restrooms.
In contrast, in reality and in most contexts most second-wave and practically all third-wave feminists welcome trans women into the spaces they consider theirs,
I saw a video by Kaitlin Bennett from Liberty Hangout (an ultra-conservative, reactionary YouTube channel). She walked around a college campus somewhere in the UK, asking random students, women and men, if women's restrooms should have urinals and men's restrooms tampons and sanitary pads. She didn't get a single raised eyebrow. One man didn't want to answer, the rest answered like it was the most natural thing in the world.
It's very anecdotal, but I found it uplifting. Another blow dealt to patriarchy.
Lars @ 1191: Just an FYI by the way: Trans-sexual people have gone through surgery; a trans-sexual woman doesn't have a penis, so no worries for your wife there.
Some of them have. It's expensive surgery if you have to pay for it out of pocket, which you will here in the U.S.
My trans relatives tell me that sometimes someone has only bottom surgery, sometimes only top surgery, etc., decisions that don't involve money typically involve decreased sensitivity in sexually important areas and the current impossibility of creating genitals/reproductive systems which are correct in all aspects.
The problem here is obvious. On one hand, we need to be fair to trans-folk. But we also need to be fair to everyone else.* I think the way to start with that is to take seriously the idea that being trans is a biological identity (you can read the details on Wikipedia) that frequently requires medical and psychological/psychiatric intervention. Once that's understood, both what's "fair" and how to best deal with trans-folk follows fairly intelligently. I say this as someone with a very much loved, very close relative who has gone trans as a means of dealing with very severe gender dysphoria.
Troutwaxer @ 1202: My trans relatives tell me that sometimes someone has only bottom surgery, sometimes only top surgery, etc., decisions that don't involve money typically involve decreased sensitivity in sexually important areas and the current impossibility of creating genitals/reproductive systems which are correct in all aspects.
Doesn't change the fact that sex reassignment surgery is expensive & some trans people are not going to be able to afford it unless the government or private insurance steps in to pay for it. And in some places (mainly here in the U.S.) they won't, so a trans person can only get as much as they can afford to pay for out of pocket.
How does that work in the U.K.?
How does that work in the U.K.?
Covered by NHS, at least at the moment. Post-Brexit, who knows?
By the way, I read that the UK government is ready for modern technologies such as Mozilla and Netscape. You want to tell them or shall we let a snarky Frenchman do it?
How a blog post can date rapidly. We now have that "impossible" Brexit deal with the EU where their "red lines" got erased by the needs of the German car industry. So no significant change, and no mass Brexit starvation in the streets as long prophesied here. Instead, we have freedom to make our own trade deals - so its all looking rosy. Must come as a great relief to the doom mongers.
Dirk BOLLOCKS .... The financial services still don't know if they can trade in the EU, we have lost all the so-useful "peripheral" benefits ( Erasmus / Galileo / EU medicines / EHIC etc ad nauseam ) Oh & if things go worng, the EU can turn the 'leccy meter off ..... This is looking more & more like the reign of James II & VII - bring on The Glorious Revolution!
Given that Sterling trading at 1.55 to the $ didn't hurt the City, and that all major players have offices in all major cities, I don't think you need shed any tears for the casino
SO FAR See also https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-boris-johnson-red-tape-b1780500.html
Well, Boris has come up smelling of roses. Goes a long way to taking the pressure off him with the covid fiasco. Anyway, you can all return to your arguments over "What is a real woman" and other such crap, or why we are all doomed. See you all again in 6 months.
BoZo the lying clown has come up smelling of shit, actually. Meanwhile, I'll be very interested to see whom the tory headbangers & the Hate-Mail & the All-station-stopper blame now - since they can't blame the evil EU any more?
My friend Pink answered that one back in 1979:
"I've got some bad news for you sunshine Pink isn't well, he stayed back at the hotel And they sent us along as a surrogate band We're gonna find out where you fans really stand
Are there any queers in the theater tonight? Get them up against the wall (Against the wall) Now there's one in the spotlight, he don't look right to me Get him up against the wall (Against the—) And that one looks Jewish and that one's a coon! Who let all of this riff-raff into the room? There's one smoking a joint and another with spots If I had my way, I'd have all of ya shot!
Troutwaxer I'm afraid you might be correct The usual trick is to blame "International Financiers" - meaning jews, of course. The fascists in the US are particularly exited about Soros, for some "reason". Except actual public anti-semitism has never been large in the UK - we've always had the catholics to hate, instead (!) Or until recently, when the extreme left seem to have become unable to distinguish between Netanyahu & Likud on the one hand & jewishness on the other.
You're forgetting such episodes as the Clifford's Tower massacre
Bellinghman That was ... some time ago, before we learnt to hate catholics!