As I understand the laws involved, in order to hold the referendum, Westminster has to authorize it. Why does everybody assume that May and the Tory majority will? What price would they pay for saying, "Nope, you had your vote in 2014; if you don't like it, oust us at the next General Election"?
Sure, it riles the Scots into supporting the SNP. So Holyrood winds up with an SNP majority government instead of a minority, and . . . what, exactly? Ensures the SNP rather than Labour wins Scotland's seats in the next general election? Causes a bunch of English voters to late-swing Tory in the next general election to avoid a Labour-SNP coalition like they did in the previous?
Why the conviction that there will be a referendum?
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