The second doesn't necessarily follow from the first, it is fairly clear that the Tory vote holds up because a large part of the Leave constituency see them as the party of Leave. Their position in the polls reflects that the referendum result was real.
]]>That is even before we get to questions of what would actually be on a putative ballot (there are factors that would push it towards a binary choice of some kind), and the seeming inability of the main Remain/PV campaigners to learn from their last outing.
[By-elections can be misleading at times - turnout is bound to be depressed, and they are often used as an opportunity to register a protest of some kind, so I think the reading of the Newport West result is at best mixed].
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