New Zealand has implemented most of what you describe. It's been tough but the number of new cases per day is now down to single digits. A slight relaxation of these measures (stepping down from the current Level 4 to Level 3) will happen a week from now.
We go from only essential services are allowed to operate, to businesses & services can operate as long as they can do it 'safely' (maintaining staff distancing, contactless transactions etc. which means still no sports, no haircuts or personal grooming services). The current plan s for Level 3 to go for two weeks during which we wait & see if we get a spike in new cases...
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]]>There's been no flour available from our local supermarket the last three times I've been. There was a run of stocks in the days leading up to our lockdown & since then many have been doing home-baking. Despite hugely increased demand, our problem is also packaging: at Alert Level 4, only essential businesses are allowed to stay open, so in the first couple of weeks, supermarkets were it for foodstuffs (they've since relaxed rules to allow dairies/cornershops & greengrocers to open. Flour manufacturers are repackaging their catering sack sizes to retail 1/2kg sizes but there is lag...
JBS @430 & others re:stockpiling.
Yes there has been some panic-buying & stockpiling. And our modern supply chain systems just can't cope with even modest sudden increases in demand. In New Zealand, because lockdown means everyone stays home unless you work for an essential business/service (of which there are few), it's funneled all the demand to supermarkets. We might normally cook 5-6 dinners a week, and get lunch from the local bakery, sushi place etc. Currently, we have to supply every single meal ourselves. Which means our supermarket bill has skyrocketed, but we are saving money otherwise spent on going out for dinner, brunch at the local cafe etc.
City of Engines @453.
Not sure when a variant becomes classified as a new strain (I assume strains are differentiated by colour, so there are multiple strains of COVID19 now) but sequencing technology is sufficiently advanced that the COVID19 virus is being routinely sequenced around the world and the genome sequences are being shared. https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global
You can track what they are & where they're ending up. It is an important tool to monitor what the virus is doing, e.g. in case it mutates into something even more virulent, we are more likely to be able to track its movements.
busydoingnothing @464 PubliusJay @465 https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2020/04/09/a-stochastic-model-for-covid-19-spread-and-the-effects-of-alert-level-4-in-aotearoa-new-zealand/
New Zealand going to hard-ish lockdown but not to the extent of no-one leaving home at all (as Errolwi says) and it seems to be working. The next (tough) question is when to ease restrictions & that is something our authorities are trying to get right. The price for getting it wrong means more infections, deaths, and we will go back to hard lockdown which we want to avoid.
Heteromeles @467 Yep, those are the questions our authorities are trying to get right. New Zealand currently has sufficient testing capacity. The big one is contact tracing: we need to have enough capacity in case a bunch of cases turn up, we need it to be really rapid, and we need it to be accurate. Simple no?
]]>https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global
It's an important tool to track where the different strains are going, as well as new strains as they mutate.
]]>Actually -80 deg C freezers are not needed for DNA so long as you have a clean sample (no nucleases). I generally store my genomic DNA samples in the fridge (to avoid shearing from freeze/thawing), standard samples in -20C. It's only our archival DNA samples that are stored in -80, but that's for long term storage. In practice, it means one less piece of specialised equipment needed in a COVID19 testing lab.
]]>I knew it was going to be a big issue probably around late January with the reporting out of places like Taiwan & Korea but it was brought home when I started getting emails from biotech suppliers increasingly mentioning COVID19 testing primers, kits & reagents.
]]>Here the PCR machines (and research folk) in research facilities have been recruited for COVID19 testing to increase testing capacity. The validated method is qPCR which is working well but non-trivial. One factor is the taking of the sample which can be as easy as sputum or as invasive as a bronchoalveolar lavage. The possibility of a false negative is real (our first case took persistent re-testing before the test came back positive) even when the patient is showing all the clinical symptoms.
Then once you have the sample you have to extract the genetic material before analysis. Because coronaviruses are RNA viruses, you can't go directly to qPCR, you first have to convert the RNA into DNA (DNA is the template the qPCR process works on). And that is non-trivial too. Naked RNA is very susceptible to degradation by RNAses (enzymes that degrade RNA), and RNAses are ubiquitous, so careful handling is needed.
There is a whole lot of effort going on developing better, faster, cheaper, higher throughput tests. This as much as anything will be part of how we get through this.
(Side note: I've always been interested in logistics & supply chains. But none more so than now.)
]]>Re: wearing masks of any sort in public. It's not currently mandatory in New Zealand (there are pros & cons) but on balance, it's better to wear than not to wear.
New Zealand has been lucky* and took advantage of it by acting early. We were able to see COVID19 progress in other countries first which gave us time to prepare. And once the first case was identified, preparations were advanced. Initially it was the announcement of the alert levels system and what each level required, which provided some clarity (in principle) of what was coming. But ramping up to the highest level (4) happened very quickly when it came & the country has been closed ever since; you can return to NZ if you are a resident, citizen or a dependent of but once you arrive you'll spend 14 days in quarantine.
Huge support packages have been initiated to help keep businesses & individuals going but clearly life won't be returning to normal any time soon (or if ever). Tourism accounts for ~6% of GDP - well that's gone.
Currently we are in a declared state of emergency (which has to be re-declared every 7 days) and Parliament is not sitting. In its place is the Epidemic Response Committee chaired by the Leader of the Opposition Simon Bridges which provides scrutiny. In many ways our democracy is running as it should.
I expect our borders will remain closed for the forseeable future (until a reliable vaccine is available, also a good serological assay, and better data on how lasting is the immunity to COVID19 once you've recovered). The plan is to eliminate COVID19 from New Zealand. If that is successful, the biggest risk of reinfection is from overseas travellers, so yeah, country closed indefinitely...
*One of the pieces of luck has been having PM Jacinda Ardern at the helm providing astute & steady leadership. Our Director of Health Ashley Bloomfield is incredibly competent. I am so grateful for that.
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