Ioan

Ioan

  • Commented on Social architecture and the house of tomorrow
    I think that you guys are missing an important element: Trump already has his "short victorious war". It's the war with China. This isn't a normal trade war, it's a Thucydides War. The last 2 such wars were the Seven...
  • Commented on Social architecture and the house of tomorrow
    "The problem is, people mostly live in densely populated urban areas today (the screaming exception is in North America), and climate change and the end of the oil economy is going to tend to militate against suburban living." I disagree...
  • Commented on Social architecture and the house of tomorrow
    The New York Times is right wing? That would be news to Trump. Glad that I finished my lunch before reading that....
  • Commented on Social architecture and the house of tomorrow
    The critical infrastructure can be moved? Who says NYC will have 8.4 million people? What population numbers do you think that I am using? Can vaporettos not handle traffic from a much smaller population? The better question is: can existing...
  • Commented on Social architecture and the house of tomorrow
    I do agree that Miami would be a shadow of its its former self. Most of the housing is suburban; that won't survive. My prediction for 2100: Miami will have a population of up to 1 million for these reasons...
  • Commented on Social architecture and the house of tomorrow
    I think border controls will keep a significant portion of the human population in those zones. Miami is probablya better place tobe than most of Florida. I think that Miami can survive as a tax haven, or a smuggler's den,...
  • Commented on Social architecture and the house of tomorrow
    Miami can deal with the water issue via rainwater collection and floating desalination. The city population is likely to be in the low millions, so it shouldn't be an issue. When it comes to NYC, I am not sure of...
  • Commented on Social architecture and the house of tomorrow
    "Bear in mind that it's probably newly built since 2019. 80% of humanity lives within 200km of the sea; ocean levels are rising and extreme weather events are getting worse, so our cities will over time recede inland from the...
  • Commented on Upcoming appearances
    Here are some thoughts about the fall of the Roman Empire and the Saxon invasions 1. You can make an argument that the Eastern Roman Empire fell in WWI, not 1453. You can make good arguments that the Ottoman Empire...
  • Commented on Upcoming appearances
    "Um, nope. "Mexicans invading California"? And here, I thought it was the other way around, since they were there first...." That's not really true for California (or Texas). When people use that saying, they're mostly referring to New Mexico. Short...
  • Commented on Three pieces of news about the Laundry Files (UPDATED!)
    There is an inequality-adjusted HDI, but it's not broken down by region https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI HDI gives a much more accurate picture of a country than GDP/GRP PPP per capita. Income inequality influences the latter far more than the former. I also...
  • Commented on Three pieces of news about the Laundry Files (UPDATED!)
    This may be the wrong thread, but I have a question about Scotland. Below is a list of UK regions by HDI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_Human_Development_Index While Scotland's HDI is good internationally and within the EU (it's values are on par with France's),...
  • Commented on The Inevitable Brexit Thread (1)
    Oops, forgot to put the Wikipedia link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sally_Hemings#Hemingses_in_Paris...
  • Commented on The Inevitable Brexit Thread (1)
    Interesting story about Sally Hemmings: "Under French law, both Sally and James could have petitioned for their freedom, as the 1791 revolutionary constitution in France abolished slavery in principle.[32] Hemings had the legal right to remain in France as a...
  • Commented on Lessons learned: writing really long fiction
    "I've frequently thought that if we really don't want immigrants that the place to put our money is into Mexico. We should work hard to make it into a first world country (easier said than done) and let them absorb...
  • Commented on Lessons learned: writing really long fiction
    Charlie, I know you don't mean to, but please stop saying that Mexico and Iran have the same population size. It just looks like you don't know what you're talking about. Mexico has 1.5 times as many people as Iran...
  • Commented on Deaths and Deadlines
    "Russian oil production is going to drop from 11.0 million barrels per day to 0.4 per day by 2025 " I don't see 0.4 in the article, I see 10.4 million barrels a day "By 2025, the Permian Basin would...
  • Commented on Deaths and Deadlines
    As an aside, even Liaoning province is declining in population, from 43.9 in 2012 to 43.8 in 2016. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liaoning That province has several economically important cities on its coasts. That was a surprise for me to find out....
  • Commented on Deaths and Deadlines
    Heteromeles is also ignoring a few other things: 1. Manchuria is depopulating. Technically, Manchuria doesn't exist as a distinct entity it's been divided into several provinces. These provinces don't match the region's historical boundaries. Thus, I will focus only on...
  • Commented on Deaths and Deadlines
    In space news, 1. The first privately funded lunar lander took off successfully on Thursday. The way this stuff is counted, it would make Israel the fourth country to land something on the Moon. 2. The Dragon v2 demo flight...
  • Commented on Deaths and Deadlines
    "The general thought by historians of empires is that empires grow and shrink at roughly the same rates, so an empires that grow rapidly tend to shrink rapidly. The British empire, the Mongol empire and the Inkan empires are all...
  • Commented on Deaths and Deadlines
    "Okay - Russia still needs to figure out social policy re: AIDS, a collapsing social welfare/old age security/pension and medical programs. The falling birth rate may not be as big an issue since male life expectancy is still barely 65...
  • Commented on Deaths and Deadlines
    "And even Russian program is going to recover from USSR collapse for some decades from now on." I'm going to disagree here: the Russian program has already recovered from the Soviet collapse. To my knowledge, the only Soviet capabilities that...
  • Commented on Deaths and Deadlines
    "Not really true, AFAIK, US has always had more economic power after WW2 than anyone. That said, it is just about as hilariously sad that they've lost first and second prize in the space race." Haha. That's a good one....
  • Commented on Deaths and Deadlines
    "China has a working space station despite US attempts to freeze them out of cooperation on the ISS, and is embarking on a slow but methodical plan of lunar exploration." I can't believe I'm being forced to defend the idiotic...
  • Commented on Deaths and Deadlines
    "d discovered, to my surprise that it had plateaued rather than growing steadily as I had assumed." I'm confused by this statement. Does it mean that without the human component the throw weight of all launchers had remained roughly constant...
  • Commented on Deaths and Deadlines
    "That said, it appears that satellite industry boomed around the middle of 1990-s, when it was suddenly killed off by economic crisis and dotcom crash. You can observe this spike of commercial activity here." If you're going to present a...
  • Commented on Deaths and Deadlines
    "The point is, the can't effectively suppress foreign space initiatives any more." And yet, during our peak, our launchers were relegated to the sidelines of the commercial launch market (you know, the part of space travel that is profitable outside...
  • Commented on Deaths and Deadlines
    "The only real driver for that would be an expansion to the outer space, but people are not too keen on difficulties of such activity. They give up too easy, too worried about good profit." I don't know if you...
  • Commented on Deaths and Deadlines
    "Unfortunately, it turn out that market isn't as free as they were told before." Yes, and this has also pretty much cut off a lot of the US aerospace industry from the rest of the global market. Since the 2000s,...
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