icehawk

icehawk

  • Commented on Too Many Thoughts About Genre
    “ My agent was (understandably) a little leery about this. Fantasy readers like big stakes, she said. It's part of the appeal of the genre.” I hate this about fantasy, and am much more likely to buy books that avoid...
  • Commented on Introducing Dead Lies Dreaming
    Most of Graydon’s Commonweal novels involve a lot of details of the world - the nature of sorcerers, of the anarcho-syndicalist society.. The world is amazing, and what the novels showcase, but it is also difficult to grasp. It is...
  • Commented on Artificial Intelligence: Threat or Menace?
    ”IIRC Mt/Island Rangitoto is merely "dormant" - yes?” Rangitoto was very active from 1000 to 600 years ago when it’s big eruption occurred. Rangitoto is the biggest of 53 mini-volcanos in and around Auckland city, which have been erupting for...
  • Commented on Artificial Intelligence: Threat or Menace?
    “You'd think with a prepper subculture, Americans would actually have a grip on how to deal with emergencies.” Remember Brin’s “The Postman” ? When it came to distaster recovery, the preppers were the bad guys. The guys who took a...
  • Commented on Artificial Intelligence: Threat or Menace?
    "Computers are suffering from the Dunning-Kruger effect: they don't have the meta-knowledge to understand where they perform well and where they don't..." That's a really well put. I hadn't thought of the connection between Frame Problem type issues and Dunning-Kruger....
  • Commented on Artificial Intelligence: Threat or Menace?
    "given the USA of the time is definitely the more liberal democracy v the UK and Commonwealth of the time" Definitely not. Where I lived in the USA wasn't even in the South - it was Indiana. But the Klu...
  • Commented on Artificial Intelligence: Threat or Menace?
    ”Those techniques were extensively studied in the 1960s, and those problems were known then; nothing has changed” Minksy’s critiques from the 60s did not really address back/propagation in multi-layer networks. If they are what you are thinking of. But it...
  • Commented on The obligatory general election discussion post
    Since we’re talking healthcare... Samoa has had a measles outbreak. 70+ dead, 61 of them aged 4 and under. The govt responded by shutting down the whole country - no work, police roadblocks on the roads - while they undertake...
  • Commented on The obligatory general election discussion post
    Nah. Because the moment Bozo lost he would not have a nice friend Trump any more. A very odd thing about Trump is his profound, astounding lack of loyalty. We cheer for our team, win or lose, because they are...
  • Commented on The obligatory general election discussion post
    I'd forecast the S&P500 first if I could do that, That's easy: "Prices will be volatile" You're welcome!...
  • Commented on The obligatory general election discussion post
    "I mean if there is anything that shows how people trade with each other, the intermingling of food across cultures is is!" Best food in the world came from places that were at trading and cultural cross-roads. Thai food, Lebanese...
  • Commented on The obligatory general election discussion post
    "Perhaps I misunderstand how important your NHS is to most voters. Are people already unhappy with it to the point of supporting change to it?" 1. Every health care system, everywhere in the world, could always save more lives/reduce more...
  • Commented on The obligatory general election discussion post
    Given the report after report over the last few years, that a medical bill or other emergency costing $400 or $1000 would bankrupt most of the people mislabled "middle class", Middle-class bankruptcy is the issue that got Elizabeth Warren into...
  • Commented on The obligatory general election discussion post
    “ The middle-class were supported by the rich powerful patrons they served, Leonardo da Vinci painting for the de Medicis and the like.” A piece of historic flotsam for you: When Galileo discovered the large moons of Jupiter, he did...
  • Commented on The obligatory general election discussion post
    If the rewrite of Kerbal Space Programme uses Quaternions then I will accept that they are numbers. But “Numbers which are more complex than the Complex numbers” is not going to win them hearts and minds....
  • Commented on The obligatory general election discussion post
    “Real numbers are no more "real", in the ordinary English sense of the word, than any other type of number.” Constructivist mathematicians would not consider them real. Their view would be: Unless you have a method of constructing a number,...
  • Commented on The obligatory general election discussion post
    “Back in July a swamp near my house caught fire” Most Australian sentence ever....
  • Commented on The obligatory general election discussion post
    Sequential dialing will turn up people who furiously demand "How did you get this number?" and refuse to admit understanding how integers work. Types of numbers: Integers, Rationals, Reals, Complex, Secret I'd tell you about the Secret numbers, but...
  • Commented on The obligatory general election discussion post
    "A more reasonable match would be New Zealand or Ireland; similar population anglophone nations that don't pretend to be imperial superpowers. And if you look up their military capabilities on wikipedia you may get a surprise." NZ is the most...
  • Commented on The obligatory general election discussion post
    Sorry, it's Ali *Milani*...
  • Commented on The obligatory general election discussion post
    As an outsider... is there really a chance that Ali Mani will beat Boris in Boris's electorate of Uxbridge? That would be beyond awesome....
  • Commented on The obligatory general election discussion post
    Best of luck. It still astonishes me that our NZ parliament of FPP-elected MPs from an entrenched 2-party system abolished First-Past-the-Post in the 90s and put in our current proportional representation system. Makes one believe there really can be such...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    She’s not a socialist. Financially her tax plan would have been considered boringly mainstream in the USA in the 40s, 50s, 60s or 70s. Back when rich people got taxed. And back when economic growth was higher than now -...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    Back on topic.... Average charitable giving of the super-rich (20 richest Americans) last year was 0.8% of their wealth. 0.3% if we exclude Gates and Buffet. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/11/25/20981946/charity-billionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates-wealth-tax That’s less than me, and I think I’m pretty average. Real multi-billionaires are...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    “one of the shockingly awesome things "Tomorrow's Schools" did in Aotearoa was allow school principals to hire top-level administrators with accounting qualification” ...so that school’s admin budgets went up by over 300%. Less teachers, more accountants and admins, just what...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    “The brief experiment in New Zealand with selling their railways to a trucking company (yes, really), went as well as you'd expect“ To be fair, it went no worse than the NZ approach of a decade earlier. Which was to...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    “To address the World's problems, you need to get rid of the root cause: men.” Reminds me of the best way to destroy humanity. A virus that causes men to have only male children, who can have only male children....
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    “... it's basically the mathematics under exponential growth. So finance is, in essence, biology.)” It’s amazing how profound and knowledgeable one can seem in a Trading Room if one understands exponentials and logarithms. A bit frightening really....
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    This claim that very rich investors beat the market by hiring the best investment managers is odd when you look at it closely. Every large bank, pension fund, hedge fund has lots of dosh. Billions. That is what makes them...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    We were camping in Kalgoorlie when they hit a heat record of 47C. It was the breeze that made it worse - like standing in a blow dryer. I believe the world record is about 54C. 65C is the internal...
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