Poul-Henning Kamp

Poul-Henning Kamp

  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    I agree. A lot of the "just run ..." schemes proposed by nerds totally overlook how many fingers that would put on literal buttons all over the place. Energy-trading across national borders automatically becomes politics. Even in the very cozy...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "And that is precisely what is NOT possible more than a very short distance ahead in a maritime climate, " There are three different horizons in this. Grid stability operates on timescales of minutes to hours, this is about balancing...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    Correct, but with a sanity-check that this year is falling somewhere near the climate normal. However, as time progressed, and in particular when the installed wind power grew a lot because of "the big replacement", higher precision became necessary, but...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "The Faroe Islands may be a good resource for wind power, but that would probably be for the UK grid?" Actually what you want to do at Faroe Islands is stick a turbine into the ridiculous tide-currents between the islands....
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "Denmark has one of the very best wind resources on the planet." Not even close. There are many locales that have far more, far more steady and more constant winds than we do. But yes, a lot of nearby coastline...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "(installed wind turbine dataplate figure divided by electricity generated)" Sorry, but that number is /still/ totally without relevance, because the owners knew what the expected production would be, for every single one of those wind-mills before they bought them. What...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "So what I've learned today; the Danish grid is somehow different from any of the German, Netherlands and UK grids." Nope. They all use meteorological forecasting to predict solar and wind production, as does the UK grid. You dont get...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "Where DID you get that delusion from?" From 40 years of production in the danish grid ?...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "and frequent long periods where a single weather system renders the entire inventory of wind generation sites, both actual and potential, more or less useless." This claim is simply not true, period, and there is no better refutation that to...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "Medium-term weather forecasting is still very iffy," For windmills you do not need a weather forecast, you only need wind forecast, and that is a much simpler task, in particular offshore....
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "This makes the apparently universal conviction of huge parts of the world that "Nuclear is too slow" is an actual argument really mind bending." The primary reason why nuclear is slow, is that the industry repeatedly, almost from day one,...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    Did you notice I used the word "calculus" rather than "spreadsheet" ? I'm trying to make the point here that the technology is much better than the politics which envelopes it....
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "Great, I'm happy Danish wind turbines are the exception to the normal - but that isn't what the rest of us in the rest of the world have to deal with." Actually, since both Vestas and Siemens grew out of...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "Offshore wind is more efficient, maybe 35% but it's a lot more expensive -- Hornsea 1 has a Contract for Difference strike price of £164.96/MWh which is extortionate [...]" Place that one squarely at the feet of your government, who...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    It's actually quite complicated, they tweak not only the wings orientations, the gear-ratio, but also the generators magnetization and the switchmode power-converters operating point. And yes, brake-failures are quite spectacular, because the first thing you do is disconnect from the...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "Wind turbines have an output of about 30% of their rated maximum, averaged over their lifespan. A big wind turbine, 10MW dataplate will produce on average 3MW. Some days it will produce 5MW, some days nothing. Getting it to produce...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "The problem with "refurbishing" a 20-year-old wind turbine (dismantling it, taking it apart, replacing the worn parts, rewinding the rotor and stator, replacing the control gear etc., reassembly, reinstallation on the tower) is about the cost of a new wind...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "I am sorry, but that's not really true. If the turbine is well designed for a very long life, it is very close to true, but the devil is in the details, and a lot of them will NOT be...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "#598 and #599 - In other words, no-one has yet demonstrated what the actual lifetime of a turbine is, and we're supposed to believe that it will be 50 years because the bearings and generator of a first gen turbine...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "The figures show that Denmark has decommissioned 1/3 of their turbines (they currently have around 6,000 turbines, and have decommissioned around 3,400). The fact that 1/3 of their lifetime turbines only have an average lifespan of 18 years appears to...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "2000 - 1977 = 23. That's less than half of 50." Yes, but they did not get taken down because they did not work any longer, the got replaced with newer and (much) bigger models, because the Danish Parliament made...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "But wind and solar tend to have 20-30 life spans planned in [...]" I think it is important to point out here, that we are severely limited on the lifespan estimation because we only started building this stuff very recently....
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    Add a copy of Bell System Technical Journal for me....
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "I think of the scenario where we've already caused 5-ishºC of warming" The good news is that is very unlikely to happen, because we will loose the infrastructure which allows us to burn fossil fuels on a massive scale already...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "How did that "running out of power" thing work out for Texas during their short-lived electricity blackout in February? Oh, death toll estimated at 200" You do remember that the current estimate is around 100 million people will die because...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "Here's what I would say:" That's pretty cheap talk, because the laws of nature pretty much rule out getting a relevant amount of power from the envelope you draw. The kind of "research-reactors" you can build inside your envelope can...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "I contend that we will still need that 20% Baseload power generation - yes?" Depends where in the world you are, it varies from below 10% to around 40%, mainly on the existence of specialized continuous high-energy industries such as...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "and low-carbon was never an objective." Well, it was in a way: France was very uncomfortable with the other super-powers dominance of the middle east and were afraid of becoming too dependent on oil imports. So no, strictly speaking not...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "It's pretty simple to design the transmitting system to unfocus and spread the beam immediately if the transmission beam strays from its designated receiving antenna" Sure it is. How hard is it to make the system fail-safe ? How hard...
  • Commented on Fossil fuels are dead (and here's why)
    "You can build a rectenna over the surface of the ocean. In the style of off-shore wind power." There's a reason it's called "off-shore": It's seldom more than 20-50 km from the coast-line. That's very close to a death-ray from...
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