Bill Arnold

Bill Arnold

  • Commented on Cough Cough
    I've learned that oak trees (at least around here) have cycles. Every 5 to 10 years my huge oak in the yard goes nuts and drops huge amounts of acorns. Spruce are also know for that (informal article. North American...
  • Commented on Cough Cough
    According to D.J Trump, the Transition to Greatness has started, ahead of schedule!!! (Narrator: He's wrong. On multiple levels.) Stock Market up BIG, DOW crosses 25,000. S&P 500 over 3000. States should open up ASAP. The Transition to Greatness has...
  • Commented on Cough Cough
    Yes, Taleb deserves credit and the subject deserves more widespread attention; just wish he was more willing to acknowledge that many others think (some informally) in similar ways about risks (and about positive possibilities including opportunities). (He's a good speaker,...
  • Commented on Cough Cough
    Re periodic Cicada irruptions, I've read (and observed personally, one year) that Wild Turkeys are known to do better in (local) irruption years. Original link broken in Europe, so here are a few related papers. (Also see my links at...
  • Commented on Cough Cough
    N. Taleb is an author, so you know what to expect. He's (they're) not wrong though, especially about use, for planning/decision-making, of epidemiological models that don't properly weight worst case scenarios. Tail risk of contagious diseases (25 May 2020, Pasquale...
  • Commented on Cough Cough
    It is increasingly looking like the death toll from cancelled medical procedures, and the rising mental health crisis, and associated reduction in life expectancy, caused by this kneejerk lockdown, not to mention life expectancy reduction due to unemployment which will...
  • Commented on Cough Cough
    Likewise, I won't respond to NERVARestarted. Too irritating. [Wrote down these thoughts elsewhere, just now lightly edited; US-focused but could be applied to the UK. Does the UK have a mandatory indoor mask order? Appears not? Does a society have...
  • Commented on Cough Cough
    Via cstross twitter (and riffing on a tweet), some of you may have seen today's D.J. Truump's tweet about "Transition to Greatness". He's been warning us for a while about this Transition to Greatness. TRANSITION TO GREATNESS! Get ready, it...
  • Commented on Cough Cough
    As an American, I am watching this higher-tech Wicker Man discussion with great interest; thank you. :-) In the US we have to be careful about such talk because MiBs (Secret Service, +) are known to visit people who talk...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    Do you or Heteromeles or anyone else have any references to "readable" reports on infection rates related to % of mask wearing? Analysis of actual COVID-19 statistics from the various (ethically problematic) natural experiments being run? I'm not aware of...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    I take 35 mcg/diem in winter, which I regard as giving a good engineering margin of error from both the minimum and maximum :-) Thanks. Some people here have me killfiled[1], but I wanted to get the message to them,...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    but throwing in the little factoid about low vitamin D in Italy and Spain was just silly. what was it supposed to "explain"? Fair point, at least until it is clear whether or not the case severity bucket distributions are...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    The paper I linked at #689 asserts that droplets dehydrate and shrink fairly quickly after leaving the mouth. This means that for outgoing droplet sprays, the source's mask is contending with much larger droplets than the receiver's mask. In the...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    Which explains why Spain an Italy have lower death rates per capita than the UK. Wait, what? Not sure this is snark, so, paper is about how many COVID-19 cases are worse than "mild" (vs vitamin D levels). The UK...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    Preprint, but interesting and maybe rather important if it's a good analysis. N=212, but results are(look) statistically significant. I will note the obvious "dark skinned African-(recent-)ancestry populations of the US and UK have average lower-Vitamin-D levels and this might be...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    An interesting and probably quite important paper in Nature Climate Change. It has a few dry but overt notes to policy makers and activists (nice to see). Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement (Nature...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    How many times have you changed jobs, or had your company change the offered medical insurance plans, and this year didn't offer the one you had last year, and you had to change doctors? That's just Freedom and Capitalism, and...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    Well there's India. India is in major churn/chaos politically and COVID-19 is increasing the churn/chaos. Many possibilities, but e.g. BJP has lost some elections at the state level. Meanwhile, there is this: Coronavirus lockdown speeds India’s shift from coal to...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    On-topic The Guardian piece, which some of you have already seen, worth a skim: Coal industry will never recover after coronavirus pandemic, say experts - Crisis has proved renewable energy is now a safer investment, and accelerated the shift (Jonathan...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    couple of extra daily “food supplements” for preparing body defences against SARS-Cov-2, the first was the antidote(1) to that paracetamol/Tylenol ‘four grammes maximale per dia’, NAC, N-Acetyl-Cysteine at 600mg. It's also used as a nootropic[1], and some psychiatrists are playing...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    I'm assuming that's the sort of thing an inspector general is supposed to do. An inventory, organized in reverse time order, of the 4 (so far) fired IGs. You might notice a recent Friday evening pattern: State Department inspector general...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    The Space Force[2] flag was presented to us today, with an impressively predatory fake D.J. Trump smile[3]: https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/MSoMqEfUCf2hjNnN42GNsW.jpg I are disappoint! The head of the giant space spermatozoon in the logo has been slimmed down[1], a lot: https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/66164477/space_force_logo.0.jpg I think...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    I think some people may well vote for Biden in the earnest hope of getting rid of Donald Trump, but, "their team", the Democrat establishment will quite deliberately do whatever it takes to give their "Rain Man*", Donald Trump, four...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    As Graydon said in an earlier thread, paraphrased (because I haven't found it), the correct response to a pandemic always looks like an overreaction. This is a rare case where the overreaction is being judged correct in retrospect by at...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    In part 5 of "loud talking considered harmful", loud talking is found to be a mortal threat in areas with a significant percentage of (unmasked) asymptomatic or lightly symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals. Shush, you psychopaths! :-) The airborne lifetime of...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    “Let me tell you about the very rich. They are different from you and me." But, LOL, they have their own problems. :-) Super-Rich Stranded by Lockdowns Face Higher Tax Bills (Benjamin Stupples, Devon Pendleton, May 12, 2020) “It’s not...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    The novel To Kill A Mockingbird, Harper Lee, 1960, is a school staple in the US and is (also) about accusations believed unquestioningly for sub-cultural vs other-sub-culture reasons. Well, used to be a staple; less so since complaints that the...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    I'd amend that very slightly. Outdoor is a lot less risky, but the vigorous exhales common in many sports (hard style martial arts being a particularly obvious example) are probably probably spraying as many droplets or more as the loudest...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    Re reduction in air pollution in Europe (&UK): Clean air in Europe during lockdown ‘leads to 11,000 fewer deaths’ - Study into effects of coronavirus curbs also finds less asthma and preterm births (Jonathan Watts, 30 Apr 2020) Health experts...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    Be careful with this study, because it is not yet peer-reviewed and because it is only looking at hospitalized COVID-19 cases, but it is quite interesting. (e.g. it is another study showing slightly lower COVID-19 risk of death while in...
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