cdodgson

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• Commented on "It'll all be over by Christmas" (Part 2)
  Sad to say, you actually did get the reopening date right for parts of the US -- most notably Texas, where phased reopening started May 1, with all of this in phase 1, including a lot of things that other...
• Commented on "It'll all be over by Christmas"
  One other thing you didn't mention -- the literal plague of locusts which started spreading through East Africa, from Kenya north, and has now apparently crossed the Gulf of Suez and gotten as far as Pakistan -- while a second...
• Commented on Tentative hypothesis
  For those looking for Linux-preloaded laptops, I and a coworker have had reasonably good luck with two different generations of the Dell XPS-13, which can be ordered with Ubuntu preloaded right off their web site. (I've also seen a flurry...
• Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE
  Well, per latest news reports, we now have Boris apparently proposing to stay in office past the 19th of October, and just not follow the law. Speculation in the press is about court challenges and the like, but if Boris...
• Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE
  Prior "anti-No-Deal" amendments offered in Parliament would have required the PM to request an Article 50 extension from the EU27, if the No Deal cliff were approaching and no other arrangements had been reached. There is, of course, no guarantee...
• Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE
  So, in a broadcast interview today, Gove explicitly and repeatedly refused to say that the government would follow laws passed by Parliament that they didn't like. From over here in Case Nightmare Orange, I'm wondering if that doesn't change Lizzie's...
• Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE
  My understanding is that the post-No-Deal situation is somewhat worse than you portray. Numerous EU representatives (including Barnier) have already said on the record that their first concerns in any negotiations after a No-Deal exit would be the same as...
• Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE
  Unwritten constitutions only work with strong norms, which obviously are not present anymore. If enough of a country's political leadership abandons its norms, a written constitution becomes dead words on a page, with no power to drag them back. The...
• Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE
  For what it's worth, when the UK invoked Article 50, the interpretation of its text by everyone was entirely in accord with your interpretation (1) -- that invoking Article 50 started a 2-year clock to an exit, which might be...
• Commented on The Inevitable Brexit Thread (2)
  The real money in London might have put crude, drooling bigots in power on the theory that they would be easy to manipulate -- only to find out that that theory is wrong. Wouldn't be the first time. German industrialists...
• Commented on The Inevitable Brexit Thread (2)
  EU leaders are talking about many things. The French have always said they'd accept a long extension if the request came with a concrete plan for how the British would use the time -- the new part is the idea...
• Commented on The Inevitable Brexit Thread (2)
  Point of order: the Cooper-Letwin bill requires May to seek an extension, but it does not, and cannot, require the EU27 to grant it -- so a "no deal" exit is still possible regardless. Worse, it does not require the...
• Commented on The Inevitable Brexit Thread (2)
  Per Lord Adonis on Twitter (yes, there is a Lord Adonis, and he's an active Remainer), there were some amendments in the Lords, so the Commons has to approve those before Royal Assent. Not having followed Parliamentary procedure much, I'm...
• Commented on The Inevitable Brexit Thread (2)
  All sorts of odd things about May's video -- even at the most superficial level, with the continual shakes from apparently having been shot on a hand-held phone. As one wag put it on Twitter, is the UK already reduced...
• Commented on The Inevitable Brexit Thread (2)
  One other aspect of Brexit which is, I fear, getting underplayed in the British press is that whether Britain exits the EU with May's deal (the Withdrawal Agreement) or No Deal, that doesn't end the process of negotiations with the...
• Commented on The Inevitable Brexit Thread (2)
  ... the EU27 will probably prefer not to be seen wielding the axe - for them it is better to set clear and reasonable limits and let the UK do it to themselves. Part of the UK's problem is that...
• Commented on The Inevitable Brexit Thread (2)
  ??? Cherry's proposal doesn't do any of that either; I'm really not sure where you're getting it. The full text of Cherry's motion appears here, as motion (G) https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmagenda/ob190401.htm Searching for Cherry's name is probably the easiest way to find...
• Commented on The Inevitable Brexit Thread (2)
  For what it's worth, even the emerging hard-line block among the EU27, led by France, is contemplating a very short extension (like, two weeks) preceding a no-deal Brexit, "to prepare ourselves in the markets" (according to a diplomatic wire of...
• Commented on The Inevitable Brexit Thread (2)
  The SNP MP Joanna Cherry has been trying for a few weeks to get a vote to require A50 revocation (i.e., abandoning Brexit) if a no-deal cliff were approaching. Most recently, a version of this proposal was one of the...
• Commented on The Inevitable Brexit Thread (1)
  The transport system in Venice is the one thing in Venice that isn't seriously endangered by rising seas -- everything larger than a handcart in the central city moves by boat already, aside from trains and buses that come over...
• Commented on The Inevitable Brexit Thread (1)
  Well, time to amp up the craziness. May has decided (per FT reporting) that if her deal doesn't pass, No Deal is her preferred alternative -- regardless of the non-binding Commons vote directing her to avoid it. Or, for that...
• Commented on The Inevitable Brexit Thread (1)
  Later reports on Macron's current position are ... more nuanced; here's a HuffPo story suggesting that he'd agree (probably grudgingly) to a long delay for a referendum or election, but not to let Parliament just thrash around more (which is...
• Commented on Peak Brexit
  Further note on the backstop: the net effect is that, in the final version of the agreement, Britain has to stay in the customs union until the EU and Britain agree on a better idea. Hard Brexiteers find this objectionable...
• Commented on That sinking feeling
  One odd thing about that proposal for a second referendum (both in the change.org summary and the longer, presumably original proposal from the Independent): it suggests a referendum on the final deal, but does not say what the proposed alternative...
• Commented on Happy 21st Century!
  One possible example of hands-off genocide happening already: the deal that southern EU countries have with the government of Libya (well, with one of the armed factions claiming to the be the government of Libya) to capture refugees who are...
• Commented on Rejection Letter
  The techie who activated the "kill switch" thinks it probably wasn't meant to be one. Instead, it may have been intended as a measure to frustrate analysis. As background: if you're an analyst trying to counteract malware, you want to...
• Commented on Some notes on the worst-case scenario
  Technical correction: the United States Senate is a gerrymander, done avant la lettre. The idea of giving all states two Senators, regardless of population, was put in place with the deliberate intent to give states with few voters disproportionate power....
• Commented on Policy change: future US visits
  Most of what people on the Left have point at is really weak when it comes to impeachable offenses, they aren't going to make history by being the first to remove a President from office - from their own party...
• Commented on Policy change: future US visits
  I don't know about the 15 generations part, but property-deed restrictions on land sale to disfavored ethnicities have a long history in the United States. They were deemed unenforceable in 1948, but many still remain on the books....
• Commented on Policy change: future US visits
  FWIW, if you're considering buying a disposable Android device, prepaid Android cellphones in the US are dirt cheap these days; you can buy one for under $30, plus perhaps $20-$40 for one month's airtime, a few hundred SMS messages (yes,...