Ioan

Ioan

  • Commented on A bright and shiny hell
    Since the discussion has shifted towards the necessity of a phone in today's world, I think many of you work in offices where the use of a mobile phone is not (informally) mandatory. I am in an office where most...
  • Commented on Houston: what are the long-term consequences?
    Bad http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/death-toll-from-powerful-mexico-earthquake-rises_us_59b57e50e4b0354e44127ea3?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009 Of the about 90 dead so far, 71 were killed in Oaxaca, 15 in Chiapas, and the rest in Tabasco. 1. This shows the uneven nature of Mexico's development. While these figures are from 2012, you'll notice that...
  • Commented on Houston: what are the long-term consequences?
    Just to change the discussion towards another natural disaster which the press seems to have minimized: the 2017 Chiapas Earthquake in Mexico. It was an 8.2 Magnitude earthquakes. The top 38 most powerful earthquakes range from a magnitude of 9.6...
  • Commented on Houston: what are the long-term consequences?
    Ding, ding. You're right. NK already has a conventional deterrent. A very, very expensive deterrent. They have one of the largest standing armies, much larger than their economy can support. Compared to that, nuclear weapons are cheap. Plus, don't forget...
  • Commented on Houston: what are the long-term consequences?
    Speaking of oil, it seems that the North Sea oil production is reviving itself https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-04/u-k-north-sea-oil-field-startups-surge-to-highest-in-10-years-j75n10pi https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-07/u-k-oil-gas-output-set-for-longest-expansion-in-two-decades As for Houston, I don't expect it to have the fate of Charleston, WV. More likely, it will resemble Chicago or New York. When...
  • Commented on Houston: what are the long-term consequences?
    Apparently the US is getting even more spread out. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/01/opinion/cities-suburbs-housing-crime.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region®ion=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region Short version: since 2016, suburbs have been growing faster than the urban areas....
  • Commented on Houston: what are the long-term consequences?
    My opinion 1. The reaction that people have towards this storm will depend on the casualty rate. Hurricane Ike killed 211 people (I'm assuming that the 16 missing are dead) and caused $37.5 billion in damage. Hurricane Sandy killed 233...
  • Commented on Houston: what are the long-term consequences?
    FYI, Houston is the fifth largest metro area in the US. Dallas is bigger with 7.3 million people https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Metropolitan_Statistical_Areas...
  • Commented on Trapped in the wrong trouser-leg of time
    Oh, here's the Trump administration de-facto energy policy https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/08/energy-departments-contentious-baseload-study-is-out/...
  • Commented on Trapped in the wrong trouser-leg of time
    I know this is outside of the discussion, but I ran into this time article. I thought I'd share http://time.com/4909722/trump-millennials-igen-republicans-voters/ Basically, it says that 37 percent of millenials and Gen Z voted for Trump, the same portion that voted for...
  • Commented on Trapped in the wrong trouser-leg of time
    Are you sure that McCain would have mismanaged the recovery? My memory is foggy, but the main differences between McCain and Obama were 1. No aid for Detroit automakers, destroying pensions and attempting to destroy the UAW. 2. No Dodd-Frank....
  • Commented on Trapped in the wrong trouser-leg of time
    A few more thought between Clinton and Trump 1. The coal industry would be much smaller today. Perhaps more coal power plants would have shut down? Don't get me wrong, the coal industry is still facing a decline. However, Trump...
  • Commented on Trapped in the wrong trouser-leg of time
    Interesting. Your labor force participation rate peaked at 67.2 in Sept 1998 to Feb 1999, and it's now at 62.9. This means that the difference is 4.3. The difference between the peak and current labor force participation rate of 25-54s...
  • Commented on Trapped in the wrong trouser-leg of time
    I agree with you that the Dow Jones is not a good proxy for the economy. However, I don't think that the strength of the dollar is a good metric either. A weak dollar could be read as Trump rewarding...
  • Commented on Trapped in the wrong trouser-leg of time
    I'm likely hijacking this discussion, but I have a question: How do you think the developing world would fare in both timelines? Any differences? To me, the Trump/Brexit chaos reminds me of the Great Recession. In 08/09, people in the...
  • Commented on Radio silence
    Ok. So Confederate nationalism is pretty deep in the Plains states. Important to know. What about rural New England (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont)? Central Valley California and the part of California threatening to secede to form the state of Jefferson?...
  • Commented on Radio silence
    In regards to the Civil War statues, I’m going to suggest something controversial. I think that white Dixie is a separate nation for all things considered. This is the same way that Catalonia is in Spain, and Scotland is in...
  • Commented on Radio silence
    A slight nitpick. When you add Ireland, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Ireland, the Anglosphere is approximately 38% of Global GDP. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) This brings up an interesting question for the future. Right now, what was thought of as the "West"...
  • Commented on Help Wanted at the Climate Policy Sausage Factory
    My understanding of how cosmologists approach the falsifiability their theories is: "start at the leaves and work their way to the roots"....
  • Commented on Help Wanted at the Climate Policy Sausage Factory
    A lot of carbon offset projects are cons, probably the vast majority. Having said that, I'm not sure that the carbon offset market is actually a con. Here are the benefits 1. It works better to preserve biodiversity within the...
  • Commented on Help Wanted at the Climate Policy Sausage Factory
    I have an idea for a new scam. When I was in elementary school, my teachers taught me that global warming is bad because it would spread the Amazon rainforest northward and southward. The same thing would happen with the...
  • Commented on Help Wanted at the Climate Policy Sausage Factory
    In retrospect, I'll rephrase 1 to include the hidden assumptions. "All things being equal, a person in a larger car will sustain fewer injuries in a crash with a car that is smaller than theirs. An increase in fuel efficiency...
  • Commented on Help Wanted at the Climate Policy Sausage Factory
    I'll probably leave this topic after this post. I don't want to derail Frank's discussion too much. The thing with your approach is that it doesn't work. It's the same tactic the GOP has used successfully over the past 8...
  • Commented on Help Wanted at the Climate Policy Sausage Factory
    Your idea won't work. We've had this discussion when we talked about self-driving cars. If your squad goes into Red States, the other side will have a squad which will ask your squad the following questions 1. Why are you...
  • Commented on Paging Agent 007
    Thought you guys might find this interesting http://www.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-leave-voters-happy-for-relatives-to-lose-jobs-over-brexit-2017-8 In short, 61% of Leave voters think that significant harm to the Brexit economy is worth it, 71% for those above 65 years of age. 38% think that their family members losing...
  • Commented on Paging Agent 007
    I agree with you. To be fair to Musk, if you look at his (IMHO loony and unrealistic) timetable, he wants a Mars base within a 2-decade term. So for his timetable, a beanstalk is useless....
  • Commented on Paging Agent 007
    Here is Musk's opinion on space elevators. My reading of him is that he views space elevators anywhere (including the Moon and Mars) as a distraction. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/559557786514632704?lang=en...
  • Commented on Paging Agent 007
    That's easily explainable. Many scientists are self-taught coders. A lot of majors (including environmental science) have CS classes as electives which compete with other field specializations....
  • Commented on Paging Agent 007
    In terms of history, don't forget demographics. The nations which had the greatest demographic basically set the culture and tempo for colonization. (France after the Napoleonic Wars had a low fertility rate s.t. it rose from 33 million to 40...
  • Commented on Book day!
    Apologies if this is the wrong thread for this. A few minutes ago, I had a chat with a colleague who stated: "When they began, most welfare systems in the West resembled Universal Basic Income. Over time, they evolved to...
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