Graydon

Graydon

  • Commented on The Labyrinth Index: sneak preview!
    Remember that it's the Lovecraftian singularity, and the consensus has it that if you use a nuke on Great Cthulhu, a little while later what you have is a reformed radioactive Cthulhu and no diminishment of your troubles....
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    It's well understood. You can have success or your can have control; that's a general property of any system to do something complicated. (That is, more than one person could do in principle given lots of time.) If you want...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    I see the key aspects for foreseeable AI as being capacity (speed, power, knowledge base), 'judgement', and 'imagination'. So far, we know how to implement only the first... I think it important to note that we can't reliably produce judgement...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    The classic singularity I'm most familiar with is based on the assumption that at some point, we'll create AI so smart that it can design better AIs than we can, leading to an ever-accelerating rate as each new generation of...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    To expand a bit, more people working in innovation is not a guarantee of more discoveries. However, each innovator is effectively a lottery ticket. Disagree. A lottery ticket (in a fair lottery) has the same (tiny) odds any other ticket...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    I recommend to y'all the website and youtube channel "Forgotten Weapons". There's a lot of very old stuff that's in condition to shoot. This is in part a function of there having been so enormously much of it, but also...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    More workers doesn't produce more innovation. That's the whole mythical man-month thing. Innovation is a problem of communication and organization even when the novel knowledge or process itself derives from a flash of brilliance or eccentric lone work. (E.g., Pasteur;...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    As far as Kurzweil's singularity goes, I suspect we're in the middle of it right now, but I may be wrong. I think there's four things arguing against, and nothing arguing for. Major changes only happen when incumbents lack the...
  • Commented on The Labyrinth Index: sneak preview!
    Kinda depends on whether Charlie wants to support a conversation on a (potentially complex) topic, or a venue for stress-howling. One of the problems with politics as a subject is that nobody really knows what's going on; the other part...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    There's a distinction between a singularity -- which is a religious idea involving an external actor causing a complete social discontinuity degree of change -- and an historical discontinuity -- people stop writing down what happened. So the Norman Conquest...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    Ah, but what if the aquatic ceremony is inherently non-farcical? The Lady of the Ice is fading from the world, and now we get the troubled air, storm gods in legions, and the Queen of Summer and all things burning....
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    Now I bought a good Polish ones (with cork insoles) and the process is stopped - no profit is generated, economy is stagnating, revenue is slumping. There's something called import replacement -- money you aren't spending (ideally because your functioning...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    Vimes' boots is (I think) not so much an argument about structure as an argument that the way the current structure works is to maximize expense for being poor. (that is, you get charged rent for everything, and structurally wealth...
  • Commented on The Labyrinth Index: sneak preview!
    The problem is not confined to Trump. The problem is that the entire neo-confederate power structure is guilty of something. Whether that's taking improper campaign contributions, conspiracy, election tampering, or more tangibly material crimes, it's increasingly clear that the whole...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    Don't stop with a carbon tax. Tax ALL emissions. Raise the taxes to meet revenue requirements. (Build in "emissions taxes never go down" into everyone's planning.) Remonetize. (reasons the US right HATES FDR -- acting like money really is a...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    Sure, but they're not going to think about what they're doing as "sabotaging the transition". Various oil executives think of it as maintaining the economy in the face of enthusiastic lunacy, not in terms of murdering billions, and so on....
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    Nobody's going to try to sabotage a transition; they're going to try to maintain existing patterns of dependency. (that is, after al, what's happening now.) This is pretty much impossible when you switch tool kits. Only it's been a long...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    Generally speaking, the thing that drives me up the wall is people thinking we can cut down on our total electricity use. I don't think this is insane. I think it's an accounting change. Some years ago now, I got...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    The problem with the economy is that right now, control of fossil carbon gives you (at some extension) control of everything. The US is the Oil Empire; there's only going to be one. (there have been lots of water empires...)...
  • Commented on The Labyrinth Index: sneak preview!
    If that were true, every nation on Earth would have been ruled by sorcerer-kings a very, very long time ago. Regular people absolutely do still wield power. They did; it's not clear how many still do. CASE NIGHTMARE GREEN involves...
  • Commented on The Labyrinth Index: sneak preview!
    Second of all, assuming that prohibitions on "acting against" their own government are geas-enforced, that geas seems ridiculously easy to subvert. We know with considerable confidence that the Laundry geas uses a specific chain of command with authority derived from...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    More likely: Global warming is happening, but it's much smaller and less disastrous than predicted. That's not how it's been working out so far....
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    The Napier Sabre was probably the most complicated device ever committed to series production. Like many other Napier products, it was a marvel of engineering and devoured maintenance effort. (the Deltic is much the same; amazing power to weight, brilliant...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    Where "cognitive task" is defined as "goes in the correlated bucket". There certainly is a correlated bucket. I do not think the idea that this particular skills bucket is a)intelligence, or b)that there is necessarily such a thing as intelligence,...
  • Commented on The Labyrinth Index: sneak preview!
    They do none of this. They don't have a plan for if they get outed. And that says to me they never, ever planned to go public. Ever. In any circumstances, willingly or not. They get decapitated. The Senior Auditor...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    It looks a lot like the electric future is better. More efficient, lower parts count, comparable (NH3) or better (various hopes for graphene) energy storage. The hard part is getting there. That's historically been the job of governments. Which, unfortunately,...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    Yeah, no. There's an axiom that there must be something called intelligence. It's not a defensible axiom once you stop treating it as an axiom. Various skills are correlated, sure. But I have too much experience of watching people with...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    ("Why are smart people stupid?") This sort of question gets a lot simpler when you recognize that there are no smart people; "smart", like the Great Chain of Being, is one of those Enlightenment soaked-in-a-specific-erroneous-flavour-of-creationist-world-view completely wrong things. And, surely,...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    That's a much better grade of white paint. It helps avoid picking up a heat load from incident sunlight; it won't help with the heat load from having lots of people or lots of machinery in the building. It might...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    Iodine deficiency as a thing was postulated in the 1850s and confirmed in the 1890s. The Morton Salt Company started selling iodized salt nationally in the US in the 1920s. Identifying the material problem is almost never the hard part....
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