Graydon

Graydon

  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    Greg, you know that screaming at people to shut up because they could talk normally if they just wanted to isn't a good look? First off, it's not a factual statement; "talk normally" isn't universally available. (Nor universally defined.) Secondly,...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    Wadhams talks about this at length, and comes down firmly on the side of "burning the methane means less warming". https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases put the 100-year effect of CH4 at "25", while the 100-year warming effect of CO2 is "1". So I'm...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    By an order of magnitude. Problems include that it's often too diffuse to capture and that recovery mechanisms are poorly understood. (Nor is anyone sure just how much is down there; the order of magnitude might not help a whole...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    One of the "laugh, lest you gibber and flail" things about Trump's administration is just how hard you have to look to find someone you aren't certain is a gold bug. (To the best of my understanding, Pence is just...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    The US Navy is easily the largest on the planet ... that is the basis of their power. The USN is an expression of US power. The power is the ability to pay for it, and in some sense the...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    Sure they have. Ammonia synthesis -> alkaline fuel cell; pretty much any sort of battery (note that Tesla is already selling big storage batteries), though I suspect the best price for pure storage applications is probably what you get if...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    http://www.fao.org/docrep/u8480e/u8480e07.htm "roots and tubers", globally -- ~5 %. "cereals", globally -- ~50 %. Potatoes are not important for total calorie contribution at the present time....
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    The Economic Carbon Bubble pops whenever the market collectively recognizes that solar is cheaper than natural gas. That might be the first "look, we did it!" announcement, or the first time someone like Forbes says "this is certain by Q?201?",...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    That you will not (credibly) get; that would require modelling on top of the models, and everybody knows the models are wrong. That's NOT equivalent to "oh, well, we could be OK"; the models lack the feedback processes because those,...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    I don't think there's any such thing. Bad for the grant proposals. (People doing Arctic research have started to find funding hard to get; if no one knows about the post 2005 tip, of course it's not going to be...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    Wadham is looking at Arctic Amplification as a process and pointing out that we going to get well in excess of 2 C warming. There's a really extensive literature that says agriculture can't take more than 2 C of warming,...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    The IPCC? There's an enormous literature around that number; it might be optimistic because we're somewhere around 1 C and agriculture is breaking some places already....
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    It can't be well understood. Everybody knows Clarke's third law; two Clarke aphorisms that didn't make it into the status of "law" are "do not attempt the unforeseeable" and "do no commit the irrevocable". About the only thing that has...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    Wadhams doesn't talk about agriculture beyond noting that it's generally accepted that 2 C of warming will break it. The book does an excellent job of explaining why the current atmospheric carbon load is going to put us over 2...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    If, as I believe Wadhams id slightly overstating his case On what basis do you believe that? I know what a scientist carefully avoiding all speculation and sticking to the incontrovertible facts sounds like, and that's A Farewell To Ice....
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    You might want to read A Farewell to Ice by Peter Wadhams. It came out 1 Sept 2016 from Penguin; it's quite possibly in shops there on the Isle of Mighty. Wadhams is British, and eminent. The book is short,...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    Bitcoin isn't a currency. (Bitcoin is a deliberate attempt to replace currency with something inherently deflationary because crazed libertarian gold bug.) You're defining stocks as highly liquid; that isn't sufficient to be a currency. There's the "store of value" part,...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    Err? Was talking about money there, not stocks. (Stocks are not money!)...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    I'm not going to say anything about Labour's policies in particular, because that would require specialized knowledge I don't have. In general, the difficulty is I want my money to be safe. That's impossible for a couple of reasons; one...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    Office-building starts as a confidence metric strikes me as highly plausible, yes. Brexit only makes sense as some sort of criminal enterprise; either massive money laundering or a desire to commit crimes against humanity with the cover of a sovereign...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    The core problem with nigh-all health care (and nigh-all research) is the funding model. It comes in erratic lumps and has to get through multiple levels of administrative disbursement/oversight before it articulates with the substrate. (I like that phrase too...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    It's kind of worst of both worlds: government monopolies but run like companies who only want to do profit. Well, except that "only want to profit" is a problem in the private sector, too. Profit[1] is an excellent measure since...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    If you're doing threat analysis about US capabilities, you have to consider "what would Steve Bannon think is cool?" and "how would someone seek to end-run the career military?" You also have to consider that the US machinery of government...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    Upwards of 20 tonnes is plausibly upwards of 80 RVs, though. Perfectly simple scenario where some part of the national security apparat puts that on a Falcon 9 and it does its best to decapitate North Korea. Musk -- nigh-certainly...
  • Commented on Laundry summer madness sale!
    The average wind speed at 5m up is higher presuming you're not in a built-up area. That doesn't mean bad-weather sorts of winds are significantly higher at 5m or that it's necessarily higher at all; that's a generalization which applies...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    One of the interesting things about Energomash engines, at least as I understand it, is there's no incremental development path to get there; someone had a Good Idea and blew a lot of stuff up getting it to work. But...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    There've been pictures of ATMs displaying the ransom screen going around....
  • Commented on Laundry summer madness sale!
    30 m/s winds -- ~110 kph, 67 mph, 58 knots, Beaufort "storm" -- aren't precisely common as sustained winds here, either, but not unusual; thunderstorms will do that sort of gust pretty regular. Depends on how slow the news is...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    And remember that the fix is to take the MS patch. Which is a difficult-to-analyze binary, from MS's servers. When you now know the NSA and MS are good buddies. From a Russian perspective, this is not obviously optimal....
  • Commented on Laundry summer madness sale!
    You only get billed for the actual ride, but the pricing sure as death includes (some assumptions about) the dead time....
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