Graydon

Graydon

  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    Assuming this is all true (and I've seen no one really trying to disprove it), climate chaos by itself isn't a problem, as most species on the planet either dealt with it or evolved during it. Nor is the speed...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    Losing you Facebook account, your mobile phone, your SUV, your yearly flights for holidays, losing modern farming, losing food supply to cities, losing most of the transportation etc does not mean the extinction of the human species. That's not what...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    But there are also small populations living in places that are well beyond those margins all the time and that would immediately be discarded as obviously uninhabitable if it wasn't for the fact that people do live there (and often...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    But still the problem is quite unlikely to be the survival of the human species. I really don't understand why people think this. Humans are a large animal with long generations. We're completely dependent on prolonged infant care and cultural...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    I just cannot see this as a survival situation. That is more like "back to the basics of being a warlord"-game. Absolutely everyone studying the subject expresses concerns for a hard loss of agriculture; nowhere that can be reliably farmed....
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    Permit me to recommend https://www.pnas.org/content/107/21/9552 as well as https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3322 (where you will likely need to Google Scholar it). 35 C wet bulb takes a couple hours to kill you, but it will....
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    too close to the equator anyway Charlie ran the time frame out to 2100. The IPCC's published predictions put the prevalence of lethal heat days at 20 per year up to about 40 North everywhere east of the Mississippi by...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    My construction of self-interest precludes buying things from Amazon. I would tend to argue that if you're not that Jeff Bezos, your construction of self-interest ought to also include this particular preclusion....
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    This may sound stupid, but in the 19th Century slavery went from being at the heart of capitalism to mostly illegal, Slavery became much less official; it's not gone, and indeed it's increasing in its present socialized forms. and later...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    But the bottom line is it certainly appears that you can't make the fundamental, necessary changes to our society to try and deal with global warming without putting a lot of people out of work and creating a lot of...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    Let's consider Vimes' Boots. The point to the parable is that the poor cannot shop for value; they have a spending cap (what with being poor) and are required to select on the basis of cost. The rich can and...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    If I actually had that kind of money, I'd be trying to develop "we have done with messing about" recycling; arc furnace, accelerator, mass-spec sortation, deceleration with energy recovery. In principle, it can be quite efficient; you still have to...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    But we also need to stop our consumerism and throw-away culture, as well as use much more sustainable materials. Fossil carbon extraction stops. After a certain date, it stops on pain of robust and lavish application of nuclear weapons. (Try...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    How do you keep shrubs and grasses from breaking down quickly and releasing their carbon? Grasses have massive root systems; in many biomes, grasses are a much better sequestration system than trees because the root mat involves much more carbon...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    Taxed, hell; Zelda Wallet. (Various Zelda-franchise video games handle the character's inventory so that money is a special category with an upper limit; it is simply impossible to have more money than that. I would view 500 times the lower...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    I think you're erring on the side of pessimism. PV power is not only cheaper than new-build coal plant, it's on a curve to be cheaper than existing coal-fired power stations within 2-5 years (pessimistically). Offshore wind: currently forecast to...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    If we could shift everyone to a vegan but meat-equivalent diet within a couple of decades There isn't one. There are some approximations with insect protein (sometimes incidental insect protein) but a)they're not good approximations and b)eating insects anywhere there's...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    Ok, the objective is to die old of something other than starvation or violence and to do it in a social context of respect and affection. The minimum useful thing to do about climate change is to have all fossil...
  • Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE, Part 2
    That "fifty million net worth" threshold thing for signing up to a tax haven isn't particular to a political party; it can look a bit like it but money is fundamentally apolitical on all issues except "keeping the loot" and...
  • Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE, Part 2
    People regularly cycle up 25-30% grades in the UK Sure! And here, too; the routes in and out of Toronto's ravines are like that. The thing about that stretch of the Trans Canada is three things. There's the distance; it...
  • Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE, Part 2
    There's a section of the Trans Canada in BC signed for "next 40 km, 8% grade". It's got a bike path on the shoulder; there is one and only one place to put a road through those mountains. People do...
  • Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE, Part 2
    Which is why the farmers -- remnant, and would-be -- would need capitalization. And marketing boards and other forms of collective operational viability guarantees. We know with some confidence that the thing the woodland tribes were doing when the settlers...
  • Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE, Part 2
    "Egalitarianism" isn't about outcomes Egalitarianism is totally about outcomes. If it's not about outcomes, it doesn't persist. (Of course you want a range; we're social primates, status is very important. But you don't much range; one order of magnitude is...
  • Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE, Part 2
    It's about successor states. We're not keeping the present; I mean, we never do, but when you're getting your history at the decade/week rate, it starts being a directed set of choices. And those currently powerful want to be at...
  • Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE, Part 2
    Yeah. It's not incompetence and it's not conspiracy; it's systemic. There's a consensus; slavery is fine if it raises profits....
  • Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE, Part 2
    any gains are lost because the raw materials costs have gone up. It's worse than that. Commodities have two prices; the extraction cost and the market cost. If the extraction cost exceeds the market cost for any length of time,...
  • Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE, Part 2
    Also, I think one of the difficulties for UK businesses is the cost of labour. Nah, it's nigh-all management incompetence. One evidence for that is the confusion between cost -- what did we pay? -- and value -- what's the...
  • Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE, Part 2
    You start by finding everyone with money in a tax haven and making them poor -- one pair of shoes, one shirt, three pair of socks, poor -- for the rest of their lives. It assigns guilt pretty accurately and...
  • Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE, Part 2
    I think you are a bit hard on the NDP, but that may be my bias. Several provincial NDP parties have performed competently, no question. But the provincial parties are not the federal party, and vice-versa. (Queue up everyone who...
  • Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE, Part 2
    You'd get a much more nuanced and reasoned analysis from Graydon, if he feels up to posting one. Well, I don't know about nuanced. (Or reasonable.) The Canadian Greens are innumerate moralists; they're getting votes as people start to panic...
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