Erwin

Erwin

  • Commented on Houston: what are the long-term consequences?
    Heh. I suspect NK is being amazingly rational. Assume they've noticed that they and Iran are the only designated enemies of the US without nuclear weapons currently standing. (Well, maybe Syria) Assume they've also noticed that 0% of nations with...
  • Commented on Trapped in the wrong trouser-leg of time
    Doubt it - most countries in the EU have some hot issue with regards to the UK. Most countries in the EU don't mind that much if someone else's hot issue gets pressed. I have a suspicion that one of...
  • Commented on Trapped in the wrong trouser-leg of time
    Meh. First off, new tech companies are mostly based around automating human labor - so - they don't create many jobs. Second off, competent programmers don't want to live in coal country. Third, it is currently much cheaper to hire...
  • Commented on Trapped in the wrong trouser-leg of time
    Well. Thing is - if I understand it correctly - it isn't as simple as cancelling Act 50. (I could easily be wrong.) The UK can cancel act 50 - but only subject to conditions set by the EU. I'm...
  • Commented on Trapped in the wrong trouser-leg of time
    For optimism, research-wise, there's a new solid plastic electrolyte that is either pure BS or maybe a decently economic method for energy storage. If I had to be, I'd go with BS, but mostly out of pure ignorance. I'd also...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    To be fair, Linux would be only somewhat better - security holes are also found in Linux from time to time. Having been employed by a few hardware vendors in the medical community, the systems won't be patched over an...
  • Commented on The sudden eruption of news
    The divorce analogy probably gives Brexit voters an overly optimistic impression - as divorces involve a dissolution between equal partners. Brexit is more like quitting a club that provided a ton of benefits in exchange for following some rules and...
  • Commented on The sudden eruption of news
    Occam's Razor - Brexit is expected to become a pig's ear within the next 18 months, with clarity approaching by September. May is a competent politician devoted to not presenting the appearance of failure. She is perfectly aware that June...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    Sadly, I'm pretty sure that racism, mixed with stupidity, is an explanatory 30% factor in US politics. Under that assumption, US politics makes sense. I forecast absolutely no blowback to oil companies, beyond a series of tedious lawsuits. Brown people,...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    And re ethics in medical research... While hurting people will get you fired, qualitative violations of ethical publication practices are more common than not. Consider the actual proportion of reproducible published work....
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    Have vague recollection of reference to either Russian or German research prior to ethics regulation (world war stuff) indicating that hormone injections to mother could reliably induce homosexuality in fetuses. Can't find it at moment. Some indications have been seen...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    My guess, and this is purely a guess, is that genetics turns out to be equivalent to a fairly deterministic computer program written by untrained postdocs over the course of a few hundred years. This guess is consistent with the...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    Oh. Strong racism/classism, based on ongoing lag in genetic differentiation owing to technology differences between regions. Oh, and first prototypes of practical immortality using built in man machine interface....
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    Missed stuff? Designer babies and other biologicals, well beyond the point of species differentiation. Along these lines, designed in man-machine interfaces. Partial solidification of a biologically based caste system. Or too many leaders issue. Around the hundred year mark, I'd...
  • Commented on The internet of decay
    Assuming giant cruft in the internet of things, along with long-lived legacy installs, and continued Moore's law style growth in neuromorphic computing capacity... The simplest way to keep things working might end up being deploying benign self-limiting artificially intelligent viruses...
  • Commented on Eleven Tweets
    I can't see getting this done adequately in real time, but I can see this working well as a series of short debates. It'd be even nicer if the fact checkers were also tasked with identifying meaningless gabble - which...
  • Commented on Eleven Tweets
    I suspect that the driving factor behind the rise of untruthful news sources is inherent in the increase in available content. 'content', whether it be news or politics or even species evolution, is driven to the mean when there are...
  • Commented on Children and War Toys and Violent Video Games and Action Stories
    My worry would be...if I buy a nerf sword, I know what they're hitting each other with. If I don't, they end up using sticks, and brooms, and knives as soon as they're out of sight. (Personal experiences) --Erwin...
  • Commented on Children and War Toys and Violent Video Games and Action Stories
    Tank engineering has valuable life lessons. Well, at least the myths surrounding it. Take overengineering. The story I heard is that, in the Second World War, German tanks were beautifully machined, with exquisite tolerances. American tanks...weren't. And needed grooves on...
  • Commented on Children and War Toys and Violent Video Games and Action Stories
    I do find it plausible that the violent content in some movies / TV could be detrimental and desensitizing to children. Qualitatively, the difference between that content and snuff films is that fewer people die and there's less blood in...
  • Commented on Children and War Toys and Violent Video Games and Action Stories
    The Surgeon General warning appears to be against having children watch violent movies. Given that the current level of violence in most 'violent' media is much higher than you'd expect to survive in a war zone...that isn't surprising. Our child...
  • Commented on Playtime is over
    Eh. I suspect we're just seeing an emergent effect wherein representative democracies respond in similar fashions to decreased demand for labor. 1. Democratic governments converge to a single axis system. Call it left/right. 2. Policy in that single axis system...
  • Commented on The Day After
    Well. I tend to restrict 'indecent' to < 20% of the population. Given that nearly 50% were comfortable voting for Trump... They're gonna be a force in politics in those numbers. Besides, when my parents bought their first house, there...
  • Commented on The Day After
    Primarily as an antidepressant, I'm going to be blindly optimistic. The downside is that we've elected an unstable incompetent as the next president. But, probably the risk of a major nuclear exchange is less than one in six. On the...
  • Commented on Just plain icky
    For the law of unintended consequences, assume creation of some sort of symbiotic organism that improves survivability/longevity, albeit with a significant metabolic load. Then assume some sort of switch in the brain that drives towards conservatism. Naturally, these organisms are...
  • Commented on Just plain icky
    I wouldn't worry about the r - particularly when a brief eyeballing indicates that if you did reasonable segmentation by ethnicity you'd get different results. I'd be actively surprised if the conclusions weren't dominated by unconsidered variables. Kind of like...
  • Commented on Just plain icky
    Well...0.7 r for this particular field of study...isn't bad. On the other hand, correlation is not causation. And, well, the fact that 0.7 r isn't bad is one reason that there is so much questionable work... It'd be easy to...
  • Commented on Cyberpunk 2.0: Political economy, energy, and the future US
    Maintenance on city-shaped PV seems difficult. I'd guess towards fairly standard highrises with, eventually, the cities being surrounded by vast solar cell farms. (Well, personally, I'm hoping for beamed power from giant satellites...)...
  • Commented on Cyberpunk 2.0: Political economy, energy, and the future US
    I can understand your worries about the Simpsons. I'd argue that venality, et cetera shouldn't be in your top 20 list of worries. The major problem is that agency and collaboration in large organizations are unsolved problems. So, you get...
  • Commented on Cyberpunk 2.0: Political economy, energy, and the future US
    I love the idea of solar. Long-term, satellite-based solar looks like a great solution. Solar cells have progressed amazingly. Solar output fluctuations are probably the remaining issue. Grid-scale storage is an unsolved problem - and not an easy one. For...
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