Erwin

Erwin

  • Commented on Brexit! Means! Brexit!
    I suspect the causation dates back along the lines of... Socialism bad, poor people, even white, need to die Oops, this isn't popular. Well, helping poor people wastes funds on the Irish...evolving with time. So, let's not help any poor...
  • Commented on Brexit! Means! Brexit!
    I'm not sure the cause is any sort of demographic transition. It isn't like ignorance and racism was less common earlier. Common, sure, but probably not increasing in prevalance. The whole demographic transition is predicated on 49% being noticably different...
  • Commented on Brexit! Means! Brexit!
    Absolutely no evidence, but, when I heard about Brexit, my first thought was... 'What sort of idjits running a service economy would leave their principal market for services?' However, my second thought was... 'Man, NYC is going to do well...
  • Commented on Brexit! Means! Brexit!
    Meh. Oops. It was meant to be a fairly tongue in cheek way to make Brexit work...based on the assumption that the UK became a US territory. On the bright side, the most probable options seem to be soft or...
  • Commented on Brexit! Means! Brexit!
    Except. My opinion is that plans for deliberate genocide are relatively reassuring. There is a human need to believe someone is in charge. But, outcomes seem to be better modeled by an aggregate of little interests and human nature. Eg,...
  • Commented on Brexit! Means! Brexit!
    Now, wait for the economic downturn in the US. (2019ish). Republican approval plummets with the falling economy. A gigantic blue wave crashes in. The now-ex-president, and great friend of Farage, moves to London - touting England as the last bastion...
  • Commented on Brexit! Means! Brexit!
    Well, or a simple search for an outcome worse than no-deal. Just think, suppose that the UK successfully petitions for admission as a territory. See, that gleefully sidesteps the unfortunate reality that the UK is to the left of the...
  • Commented on Publishing: A Slice of Life
    Dunno. If you check out a random Kickstarter, eg, some graphic novel by the person who does kill six billion demons, it may raise 90k, of which 9k was for pledges of 200 USD or more for a 15 USD...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    Having observed women starving themselves in adolescence because short women were considered attractive (and then cursing because tall women were in vogue by the time they became adults...). And also having observed children one step down from royalty...who lived through...
  • Commented on Do my Homework
    The increasing mismatch between cultural and technological change. I'd also posit that the rate of cultural change in rural/urban also varies. Coupled with the general reduction in poverty, an increasing and differential acceptance of genetic engineering...and a drastic reduction in...
  • Commented on Media Piracy and Unpronounceable Names
    Regarding anonymity, someone upthread referenced the notion of not making complex things simple. Anonymity seems inherently complex. Regarding Bitcoin, it does (and did) solve the problem of a broke university group paying a programmer in very foreign parts to write...
  • Commented on "I doubt me an it be commercial."
    I guess that the music industry should be predictive. So, very popular writers make about the same. However, the lucky writers who could have made the midlist earlier get amalgamated into a vast strata of authors who didn't quite make...
  • Commented on That sinking feeling
    I'd model this as a game of chicken, played between Theresa May and UK business. Theresa May has no interest in career suicide, so primcipled action will not happen. UK business, by which I mean isolated companies, has no interest...
  • Commented on Canned Monkeys Don't Ship Well, the Remix Version
    So, I guess the conclusion is that the easy way for interstellar travel involves learning enough organic engineering that man/machine is a spectrum? Basically, interstellar travel is largely posthuman. No, or very little, new physics - just a ton of...
  • Commented on The Pivot
    I suspect that going further left would cost them votes. If anything, I suspect they are a bit malpositioned socially. Black Lives Matter, LBGT rights, and protecting refugees probably lose more votes than they gain. All things considered, swerving right...
  • Commented on The Pivot
    Meh. I'm a bit skeptical about the whole 'leadership' is terrible thing for the Democrats. I'd argue that they are pretty close to some sort of weighted political views median person in the Democratic Party. Coalition elements include: Minorities: socially...
  • Commented on The Pivot
    Probably a couple of bits of good newsand some.venality. First off, we've run an extremely successful antipoverty program involving free trade. Worldwide, poverty has decreased. Apparently, the speculation that the working class might not like spreading prosperity and, to some...
  • Commented on The Pivot
    Wow. I don't know enough about the UK to judge whether or not you are correct. But, this is a potential explanation for differences in the UK's acceptance of female politicians. Definitely interesting and not something I would ever have...
  • Commented on The Pivot
    I guess that this is an affliction related to having power. One unfortunate side effect of the sort of systematic shunning of racist expression (see Roseanne) that has been implemented in Western countries is a systematic underestimation of the extent...
  • Commented on The Pivot
    On one hand, yes, there are plenty of people who detest Trump and his supporters. But, his support is still solid. You are right that an economic downturn would probably crater his support. Still, the US economy isn't that trade-driven...
  • Commented on The Pivot
    Unfortunately, I think you're overly optimistic. If you look at approval ratings among Trump voters, aside from a really short-lived bump, his support has been about as steady as a typical President. (just lower) I'm really dubious about the 'ill-informed'...
  • Commented on The Pivot
    The thing I may be missing is - how is May being foolish? Given: 1. Objective: Staying in power 2. Platform == Soft Brexit=> power loss 3. Platform == Hard Brexit=> power keep 4. Outcome == Hard Brexit=> power loss...
  • Commented on The Pivot
    Well, I differentiate between an idiot and people whose interests differ from those they represent. Eg, the manager who supported the multi-million dollar MRI product with, assuming they work out the kinks, zero sales isn't an idiot. He is just...
  • Commented on The Pivot
    I'd argue, and may well be wrong, that most arguments involving large groups of people not engaging their minds to any extent are flawed. People don't think much, but they mostly aren't utter idiots, just self-centered and a bit blinkered....
  • Commented on The Pivot
    I tend to model politicians as decent people running optimization routines designed to maximize their chances of staying in power. They come to the oddest compromises. Based on her actions, rather than speeches, I think it is reasonable to conclude...
  • Commented on The Pivot
    Merely reducing the output radioactivity of coal to the levels from nuclear would probably make coal uneconomic......
  • Commented on The Pivot
    Well, yes. If senior management comes up with something as dimwitted as Brexit, there will be enormous losses. The big one, I think, is finance. Galileo is a rounding error. On the other hand, as long as you accept losing...
  • Commented on The Pivot
    Um. From the beginning until now, Theresa May's actions have been perfectly consistent with being stuck with an idiotic project, pushed upon her by ignorant managers (the people). So, in the face of that nonsense, one boldly sets out and...
  • Commented on Test Case
    Well, it'll depend. I'd guess that, for the US, vehicle owners will pay for liability insurance, with some caveats regarding proper maintenance and that that insurance will be cheaper for autonomous cars than for manual drivers. (And, if you doubt...
  • Commented on Why I barely read SF these days
    To some extent, American politics is, in my opinion, simple. We're a country founded on slavery. The North/South divide remains. I don't even blame the conservative. It is just that, if you take up a small government stance, you sweep...
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