Erwin

Erwin

  • Commented on The internet of decay
    Assuming giant cruft in the internet of things, along with long-lived legacy installs, and continued Moore's law style growth in neuromorphic computing capacity... The simplest way to keep things working might end up being deploying benign self-limiting artificially intelligent viruses...
  • Commented on Eleven Tweets
    I can't see getting this done adequately in real time, but I can see this working well as a series of short debates. It'd be even nicer if the fact checkers were also tasked with identifying meaningless gabble - which...
  • Commented on Eleven Tweets
    I suspect that the driving factor behind the rise of untruthful news sources is inherent in the increase in available content. 'content', whether it be news or politics or even species evolution, is driven to the mean when there are...
  • Commented on Children and War Toys and Violent Video Games and Action Stories
    My worry would be...if I buy a nerf sword, I know what they're hitting each other with. If I don't, they end up using sticks, and brooms, and knives as soon as they're out of sight. (Personal experiences) --Erwin...
  • Commented on Children and War Toys and Violent Video Games and Action Stories
    Tank engineering has valuable life lessons. Well, at least the myths surrounding it. Take overengineering. The story I heard is that, in the Second World War, German tanks were beautifully machined, with exquisite tolerances. American tanks...weren't. And needed grooves on...
  • Commented on Children and War Toys and Violent Video Games and Action Stories
    I do find it plausible that the violent content in some movies / TV could be detrimental and desensitizing to children. Qualitatively, the difference between that content and snuff films is that fewer people die and there's less blood in...
  • Commented on Children and War Toys and Violent Video Games and Action Stories
    The Surgeon General warning appears to be against having children watch violent movies. Given that the current level of violence in most 'violent' media is much higher than you'd expect to survive in a war zone...that isn't surprising. Our child...
  • Commented on Playtime is over
    Eh. I suspect we're just seeing an emergent effect wherein representative democracies respond in similar fashions to decreased demand for labor. 1. Democratic governments converge to a single axis system. Call it left/right. 2. Policy in that single axis system...
  • Commented on The Day After
    Well. I tend to restrict 'indecent' to < 20% of the population. Given that nearly 50% were comfortable voting for Trump... They're gonna be a force in politics in those numbers. Besides, when my parents bought their first house, there...
  • Commented on The Day After
    Primarily as an antidepressant, I'm going to be blindly optimistic. The downside is that we've elected an unstable incompetent as the next president. But, probably the risk of a major nuclear exchange is less than one in six. On the...
  • Commented on Just plain icky
    For the law of unintended consequences, assume creation of some sort of symbiotic organism that improves survivability/longevity, albeit with a significant metabolic load. Then assume some sort of switch in the brain that drives towards conservatism. Naturally, these organisms are...
  • Commented on Just plain icky
    I wouldn't worry about the r - particularly when a brief eyeballing indicates that if you did reasonable segmentation by ethnicity you'd get different results. I'd be actively surprised if the conclusions weren't dominated by unconsidered variables. Kind of like...
  • Commented on Just plain icky
    Well...0.7 r for this particular field of study...isn't bad. On the other hand, correlation is not causation. And, well, the fact that 0.7 r isn't bad is one reason that there is so much questionable work... It'd be easy to...
  • Commented on Cyberpunk 2.0: Political economy, energy, and the future US
    Maintenance on city-shaped PV seems difficult. I'd guess towards fairly standard highrises with, eventually, the cities being surrounded by vast solar cell farms. (Well, personally, I'm hoping for beamed power from giant satellites...)...
  • Commented on Cyberpunk 2.0: Political economy, energy, and the future US
    I can understand your worries about the Simpsons. I'd argue that venality, et cetera shouldn't be in your top 20 list of worries. The major problem is that agency and collaboration in large organizations are unsolved problems. So, you get...
  • Commented on Cyberpunk 2.0: Political economy, energy, and the future US
    I love the idea of solar. Long-term, satellite-based solar looks like a great solution. Solar cells have progressed amazingly. Solar output fluctuations are probably the remaining issue. Grid-scale storage is an unsolved problem - and not an easy one. For...
  • Commented on Cyberpunk 2.0: Political economy, energy, and the future US
    Heh. Almost the same reaction I get when people dismiss nuclear because of lack of proven reserves. That, and when they dismiss nuclear over the politics while simultaneously arguing either for solutions that markedly increase the cost of energy or...
  • Commented on We'll all go together when we go
    Actually, you are absolutely correct. I got that backwards....
  • Commented on We'll all go together when we go
    Well. Yes. Politics is the big problem. Still, I have this wishful thinking that people might come back to reality eventually. I'm not so worried about plant operators - as - even at their current levels of competence, reasonable estimates...
  • Commented on We'll all go together when we go
    I'm a bit cautious of this argument. I am not at all certain that a global consumerist society can't survive essentially indefinitely. It may be that the costs of basing such a society off of fossil fuel usage will be...
  • Commented on We'll all go together when we go
    Advanced AI is the most plausible human extinction event. Moderately plausible include: 1. Discovering new, highly energetic physics or methods of black hole creation. [Had a daydream once where the frequency of quasar creation was related to the attainment of...
  • Commented on Constitutional crisis ahoy!
    @Andreas Outright discrimination is probably illegal. 'Accidental' discrimination as UK interests are completely ignored while writing new legislation - not so much. Imagine things like 'locality' requirements in finance or odd counts for fishing restrictions, applied completely evenhandedly. It is...
  • Commented on Constitutional crisis ahoy!
    The more I look at it, the more I fail to see any motivation for the EU to do anything other than: (1) Systematically discriminate against the UK while the UK is in the EU. (2) Refuse, under any circumstances,...
  • Commented on "Tomorrow belongs to me"
    I'd guess the most likely scenario goes something like... (a) Middling-serious recession in UK (b) Collective sobering up during negotiation of exit terms. (c) Deliberate sabotage by Germany of any negotiated exit allowing London to be a financial capitol (Oh,...
  • Commented on "Tomorrow belongs to me"
    Um. [Activating pink glasses] Well, maybe after 5-7 years of devastating economic collapse and the splintering of the UK, there'll be strong support for globalism. And, maybe, this time, there'll be some recognition of the fact that the benefits of...
  • Commented on "Tomorrow belongs to me"
    Glakk. Sorry to hear about this. So, non-hypothetically, what are the likely consequences for a British national working for an American multinational which owns a German multinational which owns a German company headquartered in Germany? I believe he is employed...
  • Commented on A game of consequences
    Not all of us are foodies. There's a fair number of people in my current workplace (and not a computer startup or somesuch) subsisting on Soylent out of pure laziness. (As in, tasty textured food is not worth either shopping...
  • Commented on A game of consequences
    It might be easier to toughen people up a bit and add some sort of muscular valve enroute to the lungs to maintain something like 1 atmosphere inside of the body. The results wouldn't be conventionally pretty. Given that I...
  • Commented on A game of consequences
    Successful political structures will be strongly shaped by the industrial structure. A post-scarcity AI world is more likely, and probably more likely to colonize successfully. It is less interesting. Colonists are assumed to be significantly radiation resistant, generally immune to...
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