Erwin

Erwin

  • Commented on Roll the dice
    For children on Mars, a sensible approach would stress automation. So - expensive equipment instead of expensive life support as far as possible. Being labor-intensive makes no sense at all, considerig the support costs. Just a few people, on birth...
  • Commented on Cough Cough
    Also, don't discount raw incompetence / complexity. My recollection of the foul-up with a parole app (tried to predict which people would cause trouble when paroled) was that it was biased against African-American people. In practice, it recommended against release...
  • Commented on "It'll all be over by Christmas"
    The goal, for probably the next decade, in my book, is just to make voter suppression more difficult. After a decade, with a bit of luck, Texas turns blue. Once the statehouse goes blue, it won't be going back. At...
  • Commented on "It'll all be over by Christmas"
    I'd add - copy policies implemented in South Korea. Masks, bleach for foot traffic, cleaning of doorknobs... It probably isn't hard to get R0 below one....
  • Commented on "It'll all be over by Christmas"
    Also, one thing you missed is the probability of mutation. My limited understanding is that the Spanish flu didn't start out particularly deadly, but became so at some point. Given the current world population and the, um, lack-luster response in...
  • Commented on "It'll all be over by Christmas"
    ...tip... Asian groceries are pretty much fully stocked. Never bet against USain ignorance and stupidity....
  • Commented on "It'll all be over by Christmas"
    One thing you're missing - the US is fairly large, with significant regional differences - both in timing of earliest cases and average R0. What this means is that - broadly - the heartlands are probably a 4-6 week behind...
  • Commented on Yet another novel I will no longer write
    The issue is that of agency. Humans simply don't work well together in groups larger than 30. With the best will in the world, ridiculous outcomes will occur regularly in any large corporation. (Large corporations seem more akin to warring,...
  • Commented on Yet another novel I will no longer write
    Dunno. If you wanted a relatively happy, 'predictable future' novel - and a 'reasonably' similar culture. Maybe pick from Canada, Australia, an English speaking island (weird associations), New Zealand, the US? Nova Scotia might actually fit. Or maybe I'm rationalizing...
  • Commented on COVID-19
    Schools in the South Bay are closed until sometime in April. I'd guess they are low-balling for now. Next step is testing - with a much greater than exponential rise in cases. This will tend to justify extended 'shelter in...
  • Commented on Artificial Intelligence: Threat or Menace?
    My recollection is of some article about German WWII prisoners of war being kept in the south of the USA...ie...actual Nazis...being kept in labor camps. Apparently, many of them were shocked by how much more poorly African American citizens were...
  • Commented on Sucker bet (a thought experiment)
    Easy. 1. 99%, and whatever goes over 1B$ goes into a trust. Therefore, no head onna stick. 2. Pick a wealthy nation in a region somewhat colder than optimum and not too close to the water. Build a second residence....
  • Commented on Tentative hypothesis
    Any comments on: https://www.seas.harvard.edu/news/2018/06/team-provides-first-plan-commercially-viable-industrial-scale-carbon-removal-plant It seems remarkably cheap. I'm obviously missing something critical....
  • Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE, Part 2
    Is it really though? Thinking globally :) - The remark I remember from decades back was that the average Caucasian in the mid-West was going to react poorly when the prosperity for labor was smeared across the globe and they...
  • Commented on CASE NIGHTMARE BLONDE, Part 2
    I'd subscribe to - a breakdown in the beige dictatorship. My wife's Korean. (Number 1 in xenophobia, number 2 in food waste and divorce) (Practically American...) And, well, her take on the populist slogans is that, where she's from (which...
  • Commented on Someone please sack the script-writers
    Given the number of what I'd call unrighteous murders by police in the US... accountability for the use of force should be increased, significantly. To the point where a policeman switching off his body cam or mysteriously losing the tape...
  • Commented on Someone please sack the script-writers
    Dunno. First, a border officer really should be familiar with the possible reactions from stoppees, since that's a daily event. Being stopped is not a daily event, probably closer to once or twice in a lifetime for most. So, not...
  • Commented on Tentative hypothesis
    We may come from different perspectives. When people use nonspecific language like neurodiversity...I tend to generalize across a pretty broad range of neurodiversity and also across magnitude. The further ends of ASD are not pleasant. We have friends trying to...
  • Commented on Tentative hypothesis
    Sorry to offend. But, I've seen an, um, spectrum of people with what I'd call filtering issues. When you just have to stop - I'd still call that broken. Common skill, can't do it because of brain issues - that...
  • Commented on Tentative hypothesis
    On one hand, I do run into an awful lot of people who truly suffer from Blair's disease. I do wonder if it could be corrected with remedial classes. Poor dears. On the other hand, though I'm a few years...
  • Commented on Tentative hypothesis
    On one hand, I do run into an awful lot of people who truly suffer from Blair's disease. Poor dears. On the other hand, though I'm a few years out of date, my recollection was that Asperger's was rubbished in...
  • Commented on Tentative hypothesis
    I mean, besides any BS Comp Sci program? S'almost like the EU have a good idea with trade barriers and protections for workers?...
  • Commented on Someone please sack the script-writers
    One other note...CA and NY have substantially reduced their prison populations. (~25%). Some red states are still increasing. To be fair, even some Republicans recognize that the incarceration rate is an abomination....
  • Commented on Someone please sack the script-writers
    Hard to say - and I definitely don't know. Even going by sentenced crime is hard - prisons list the worst crime pled to and courts often plea bargain away larger offenses....there are doubtless better studies than the ones I...
  • Commented on Someone please sack the script-writers
    Unfortunately, s'an easy answer. And, basically the same one every time. If you see something weird in US politics, 80% of the time, it is pure racism. There is probably an additional admixture of dislike for federal government, based mostly...
  • Commented on Tentative hypothesis
    Meh. Probably before its time - will be more interesting when cell phone internet is cheap and good enough to be of interest... Issue is that for reasons that probably make marginal sense, hotel internet is usually horrendously slow. Otherwise,...
  • Commented on Someone please sack the script-writers
    Cough. It turns out that auditing the rich is significantly cash positive. (fact, albeit unsourced). It would be perfectly pragmatic to privitize auditing the rich, while letting the businesses keep a few percent of the results. :) Heck, no real...
  • Commented on Tentative hypothesis
    Heh. Before OSHA, a power supply which had already killed three people... (Admittedly 100 kV and a few amps) ...merited no more than 'so use ground clamps' and was immediately turned over to a fresh college graduate. Unlike the chief...
  • Commented on Tentative hypothesis
    Issue is that, at least in an industry in which I have experience, regulations are expensive and when done according to the letter rather than the spirit, probably not that effective. Definitely better than nothing on some ways, but ending...
  • Commented on Someone please sack the script-writers
    Well, see. My curiosity is to find out how many wrong color people would need to end up in prison before we actually changed the drug laws. I am perfectly willing to run a live experiment. And would, if elected,...
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