Erwin

Erwin

  • Commented on The Pivot
    On one hand, yes, there are plenty of people who detest Trump and his supporters. But, his support is still solid. You are right that an economic downturn would probably crater his support. Still, the US economy isn't that trade-driven...
  • Commented on The Pivot
    Unfortunately, I think you're overly optimistic. If you look at approval ratings among Trump voters, aside from a really short-lived bump, his support has been about as steady as a typical President. (just lower) I'm really dubious about the 'ill-informed'...
  • Commented on The Pivot
    The thing I may be missing is - how is May being foolish? Given: 1. Objective: Staying in power 2. Platform == Soft Brexit=> power loss 3. Platform == Hard Brexit=> power keep 4. Outcome == Hard Brexit=> power loss...
  • Commented on The Pivot
    Well, I differentiate between an idiot and people whose interests differ from those they represent. Eg, the manager who supported the multi-million dollar MRI product with, assuming they work out the kinks, zero sales isn't an idiot. He is just...
  • Commented on The Pivot
    I'd argue, and may well be wrong, that most arguments involving large groups of people not engaging their minds to any extent are flawed. People don't think much, but they mostly aren't utter idiots, just self-centered and a bit blinkered....
  • Commented on The Pivot
    I tend to model politicians as decent people running optimization routines designed to maximize their chances of staying in power. They come to the oddest compromises. Based on her actions, rather than speeches, I think it is reasonable to conclude...
  • Commented on The Pivot
    Merely reducing the output radioactivity of coal to the levels from nuclear would probably make coal uneconomic......
  • Commented on The Pivot
    Well, yes. If senior management comes up with something as dimwitted as Brexit, there will be enormous losses. The big one, I think, is finance. Galileo is a rounding error. On the other hand, as long as you accept losing...
  • Commented on The Pivot
    Um. From the beginning until now, Theresa May's actions have been perfectly consistent with being stuck with an idiotic project, pushed upon her by ignorant managers (the people). So, in the face of that nonsense, one boldly sets out and...
  • Commented on Test Case
    Well, it'll depend. I'd guess that, for the US, vehicle owners will pay for liability insurance, with some caveats regarding proper maintenance and that that insurance will be cheaper for autonomous cars than for manual drivers. (And, if you doubt...
  • Commented on Why I barely read SF these days
    To some extent, American politics is, in my opinion, simple. We're a country founded on slavery. The North/South divide remains. I don't even blame the conservative. It is just that, if you take up a small government stance, you sweep...
  • Commented on Why I barely read SF these days
    I hope you may be too pessimistic, probably because you are working on land usage. There is such a vested interest on the part of currently established landusers to mess things up to create scarcity...or...this is why US cities are...
  • Commented on Why I barely read SF these days
    Sorry about your friend. It depends on the purpose. I like entertaining books sometimes - sometimes elaborate worldbuilding without an interesting story falls flat. I also like books that are reasonably easy to relate to. At the moment, realistic mid+...
  • Commented on Houston: what are the long-term consequences?
    Heh. I suspect NK is being amazingly rational. Assume they've noticed that they and Iran are the only designated enemies of the US without nuclear weapons currently standing. (Well, maybe Syria) Assume they've also noticed that 0% of nations with...
  • Commented on Trapped in the wrong trouser-leg of time
    Doubt it - most countries in the EU have some hot issue with regards to the UK. Most countries in the EU don't mind that much if someone else's hot issue gets pressed. I have a suspicion that one of...
  • Commented on Trapped in the wrong trouser-leg of time
    Meh. First off, new tech companies are mostly based around automating human labor - so - they don't create many jobs. Second off, competent programmers don't want to live in coal country. Third, it is currently much cheaper to hire...
  • Commented on Trapped in the wrong trouser-leg of time
    Well. Thing is - if I understand it correctly - it isn't as simple as cancelling Act 50. (I could easily be wrong.) The UK can cancel act 50 - but only subject to conditions set by the EU. I'm...
  • Commented on Trapped in the wrong trouser-leg of time
    For optimism, research-wise, there's a new solid plastic electrolyte that is either pure BS or maybe a decently economic method for energy storage. If I had to be, I'd go with BS, but mostly out of pure ignorance. I'd also...
  • Commented on Rejection Letter
    To be fair, Linux would be only somewhat better - security holes are also found in Linux from time to time. Having been employed by a few hardware vendors in the medical community, the systems won't be patched over an...
  • Commented on The sudden eruption of news
    The divorce analogy probably gives Brexit voters an overly optimistic impression - as divorces involve a dissolution between equal partners. Brexit is more like quitting a club that provided a ton of benefits in exchange for following some rules and...
  • Commented on The sudden eruption of news
    Occam's Razor - Brexit is expected to become a pig's ear within the next 18 months, with clarity approaching by September. May is a competent politician devoted to not presenting the appearance of failure. She is perfectly aware that June...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    Sadly, I'm pretty sure that racism, mixed with stupidity, is an explanatory 30% factor in US politics. Under that assumption, US politics makes sense. I forecast absolutely no blowback to oil companies, beyond a series of tedious lawsuits. Brown people,...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    And re ethics in medical research... While hurting people will get you fired, qualitative violations of ethical publication practices are more common than not. Consider the actual proportion of reproducible published work....
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    Have vague recollection of reference to either Russian or German research prior to ethics regulation (world war stuff) indicating that hormone injections to mother could reliably induce homosexuality in fetuses. Can't find it at moment. Some indications have been seen...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    My guess, and this is purely a guess, is that genetics turns out to be equivalent to a fairly deterministic computer program written by untrained postdocs over the course of a few hundred years. This guess is consistent with the...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    Oh. Strong racism/classism, based on ongoing lag in genetic differentiation owing to technology differences between regions. Oh, and first prototypes of practical immortality using built in man machine interface....
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    Missed stuff? Designer babies and other biologicals, well beyond the point of species differentiation. Along these lines, designed in man-machine interfaces. Partial solidification of a biologically based caste system. Or too many leaders issue. Around the hundred year mark, I'd...
  • Commented on The internet of decay
    Assuming giant cruft in the internet of things, along with long-lived legacy installs, and continued Moore's law style growth in neuromorphic computing capacity... The simplest way to keep things working might end up being deploying benign self-limiting artificially intelligent viruses...
  • Commented on Eleven Tweets
    I can't see getting this done adequately in real time, but I can see this working well as a series of short debates. It'd be even nicer if the fact checkers were also tasked with identifying meaningless gabble - which...
  • Commented on Eleven Tweets
    I suspect that the driving factor behind the rise of untruthful news sources is inherent in the increase in available content. 'content', whether it be news or politics or even species evolution, is driven to the mean when there are...
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