PubliusJay

PubliusJay

  • Commented on The sudden eruption of news
    Stein requested recounts in three states. Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin completed its recount and increased Clinton's vote by 713 and Trump's by 811. (This does not comport with your report of one way errors in the thousands of votes.)...
  • Commented on The sudden eruption of news
    Evidence of the "adjustments" of which you are "nigh certain" might be nice - which would be difficult, because they didn't happen. On the other hand, there are a number of states which certainly did engage in voter suppression efforts...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    Insurance companies will not go bankrupt. They are among the entities most aware of long term risks. Instead (as has mostly already occurred with flood insurance in the US) they will not cover certain risks in certain areas. Flood insurance...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    Having grown up Orthodox I can assure you that (i) many Jews do believe in an afterlife; and (ii) there is significant support in Jewish texts and traditions for this belief....
  • Commented on Policy change: future US visits
    This would not remotely be a First Amendment issue. If anything, the First Amendment here cuts in favor of what Trump is doing as the status quo prevents political speech....
  • Commented on Policy change: future US visits
    This is where it is heading: query how stable is a government that can only act 2 years out of eight?...
  • Commented on Policy change: future US visits
    Yes, it is hopelessly optimistic. Trump's approval among Republicans is about 81%. Until that drops by a lot and/or he does something blatantly illegal, no impeachment proceedings....
  • Commented on Policy change: future US visits
    The States are not part of the process of paying federal taxes....
  • Commented on Policy change: future US visits
    And that is why I was a staunch if unenthusiastic supporter of the Beige Dictatorship and Hillary Clinton (its latest American incarnation) as it/she had the best shot of keeping transition gradual and safe....
  • Commented on Policy change: future US visits
    Republican legislative opposition to the Executive Order on refugees is limited and focused on it as an impediment to America's efforts to fight "jihadi terrorism" or "Islamic Extremist" terrorism....
  • Commented on And the Rabid Nazi Raccoons shall inherit the Earth
    Colonizing Mars would be a lot harder. Even leaving aside issues of distance and exposure to radiation en route, Mars raises issues of oxygen level and much greater extremes of temperature....
  • Commented on And the Rabid Nazi Raccoons shall inherit the Earth
    It is much more likely to be driven by a combination of inertia and aversion to short term costs. And because it is driven by inertia, the lines are not quite where you drew them. Negative impact in South America...
  • Commented on Eleven Tweets
    No need for that; co-opting is so much easier than chopping. Ryan is neutered, McConnell is partly paid off - who needs to be chopped?...
  • Commented on Eleven Tweets
    What he is going to be able to accomplish is cut taxes for the ultra rich and gut regulations across the board. Beyond that it's pretty unclear....
  • Commented on Eleven Tweets
    Yes, the party establishment does not love him for the reasons you mentioned. However, his support from Republican voters is staggeringly high - you notice all the things Paul Ryan is not saying? This is't from liking but from weakness....
  • Commented on Eleven Tweets
    Bannon was far more junior when he left GS. He is not at all the same. I am not in any way pretending this was a usual election, but there is a lot of ruin in a nation. Just because...
  • Commented on Eleven Tweets
    The standard Republican play book referred to the Republican history and strategies of voter suppression. I am aware of the ideas of the Freedom caucus and recognize that they are highly radical and will have a lot of influence in...
  • Commented on Eleven Tweets
    America will have its Presidential election on schedule in 2020 and Mike Pence won't be the Republican candidate. (1) It is not possible currently to eliminate elections or change the constitution the way you envision because the political support for...
  • Commented on Eleven Tweets
    Government solutions are always going to be at the mercy of their officials, which is great if those are Barack Obama, but not so much if they are Donald Trump. Private sector solutions at least are not comprehensive; if Facebook...
  • Commented on A reminder
    Who said that? In a situation where there was an alternative, the status of the dollar as a reserve currency would have been seriously damaged by the credit bubble and subsequent events. (The USD is not in a good position...
  • Commented on A reminder
    Well, lets think about these. The Euro has a political structure that is problematic because you don't have a unified fiscal authority and coordinated bank supervision. It is unclear how much commitment Italy for example has to the Euro and...
  • Commented on A reminder
    With regard to the previous comment, the question is also which other currency anyone else would want to hold in size. Apologies for breaking this in two....
  • Commented on A reminder
    Against which currency do you imagine the US Dollar would devalue? It is certainly true that historically, the fact that oil was traded in dollars was an important support for the status of the USD as a reserve currency. Currently,...
  • Commented on A reminder
    Expectation of financial stability would be putting it rather more strongly than I'd be willing to as well. However, I do think that at least in the United States, given the response to 2008 which, while limited, was not wholly...
  • Commented on A reminder
    Four years would be extremely fast for a new financial crisis. Even assuming Trump is serious about gutting Dodd-Frank (which is a pretty valid assumption) he will only partially achieve this and that will take one to two years. Thereafter,...
  • Commented on A reminder
    It isn't binary. It's a continuum. Looking at the United States in particular: (1) Trump has done a number of things to discredit democracy; (2) he acts in an authoritarian manner, extolling both violence and his own unique ability to...
  • Commented on Playtime is over
    The Voting Rights Act is still in force. What has changed is that Section 5 is no longer operative. Section 5 required certain jurisdictions (determined by Section 4, which was invalidated) to obtain the approval of the Justice Department or...
  • Commented on Playtime is over
    I have not read Bannon's writing and I am really sure that I don't want to. However, as Bannon is now one of six key players in the Trump Administration, I probably should understand how bad he is. (Obviously, when...
  • Commented on Playtime is over
    What has happened, is a combination of a few factors: 1. Neo-liberalism has stopped delivering to too many for too long. 2. New technology has disintermediated old elites. 3. One side of the "Beige Dictatorship" happens to crack first depending...
  • Commented on The iron law of development
    Thanks Susan. That is interesting. I'm not sure that making up the geology or chemistry is any more consequence free than playing with the physics. (I'm also not sure than you can play with the geology or chemistry without playing...
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