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Roll the dice

From one who has not played AD&D since (checks) 1983 or so (and is ignorant of anything TTRPG since they stuck "1st edition" on its name) ...

Posit a D&D campaign being run in the Laundry Universe, during/after CASE NIGHTMARE GREEN (so circa 2015-20, in a world where magic has been out of the closet and rattling its fingerbones under everyones' nose since 2014).

What strange character classes and odd tropes might a sufficiently creative GM come up with? What existing mechanisms and monsters would have gone abruptly out of fashion, and what might be the new hotness in a campaign where some of the players might be accountants by day, and others might be capable of setting their hair on fire?

(Yes this is a "do my homework" question, and I have zero intention of explaining why. Suck it up!)

1648 Comments

1:

I think the whole "underwater adventuring" system would be put through its paces, "water breathing" magic extended/enhanced to also apply in vacuum... Laundryverse puts humans in a lot less hospitable environments than traditional D&D did.

Bards, of course, would get more options for combat magic...

2:

For some reason you're reminding me of the old campaign I ran for a bit that mixed "Space: 1889" and "Call of Cthulhu". It didn't run long enough, but the endgame was going to involve the canals of Mars actually being a really really big Elder Sign...

3:

It is possible (although not necessarily likely) that Wizards of the Coast (the current owner of the D&D trademark) would be in trouble, simply from the name.

It is entirely likely that people would have (somewhere in the 3-12 months in) well-established "used by many" homebrew rules for computational magic, at least if that much has been made public.

There's probably going to be (if K syndrome is known) hmebrew rules for bad after-effects of magicing.

There's definitely going to be more possession-power monsters.

Although when it comes to tabletop RPGs, I suspect (A)D&D is going to be seeing less change than FATE and other more recent system designs.

4:

Crisis Management Publicist - responsible for finding the positive in every piece of bad news but usually makes a bad situation worse

Super Forecaster - tremendous self belief but uncertain job life expectancy with you know who... (still currently useful though!)

Brute Force Analyst - never mind narrowing down the options let's try 'em all and see what works, let's start with the ones with low probability of success and work upwards

possible work as both PC character class or NPC/Monster (delete as applicable)

5:

Given the premise of the Laundryverse, I would expect the "I compute, therefore I am" disaster to start to show up around that timeframe.

That could mean...

The Amulet of Yendor will transpire to be not as innocuous and desirable as a lot of people have thought and hard to get your hands on for A Very Good Reason.

It also wouldn't surprise me the least if FrobozzCo International does a hostile takeover of Alibaba and Amazon.

6:

Stats for Elves as playable race will be modified since the arrival of certain pointy-eared invasion army. Or there will be a new race - Alfar. It is possible that many GMs will forbid playing such characters, because of balance issues. In the field of murderhoboing Alfar seem to be at an unfair advantage - fit, fast, probably stronger than humans, alert, ruthless, beautiful, sociopathic and magically capable. The book mentioned other species arriving with The Host, as slaves, so redesign for dwarves? Gnomes? Halfings? Orcs? Maybe a fat stack of new expansion books titled, say "Realistic Races"? More fat stacks of rulebooks with patron options for warlocks, Lovecraftian patron gods for clerics of all persuasions, new specialisations for spellcasters... Oh, new spellbooks!! Also new games using old and new rule systems. Delta Green might become part of mainstream.

7:

We quite liked the original Space: 1889, back in the day. Played it mostly as an action melodrama with lots of room for comedy, and it was rollicking good fun.

I was underwhelmed by the new German version. A lot more serious and less inclusive (albeit with higher production values). The first thing that struck me, flipping through the rulebook, was that while the original had male/female characters in pretty much equal numbers, the new version's illustrations were pretty exclusively male. Closer to the period, true, but in a universe with liftwood, Venusian, and Martians female suffrage isn't that much of a mental stretch.

8:

RPG has an element of escapism in its appeal, but now it's less about the excitement of being in a magical setting, and more about the desire to have agency in that setting. During CASE NIGHTMARE GREEN regular people are acutely conscious of being insignificant pawns in the face of eldritch powers beyond imagining, and of the ways in which magic can be coopted for oppressive purposes by government authorities. So we want to play out the fantasy of being able to re-exert some control over our fate. That might manifest as lots of direct damage-dealing to horrific nightmare creatures, but I'd also see a resurgence in the kind of game where the players just want to settle down and run a farm and defend it successfully from the occasional threat. That's often been a bit of a joke in our timeline, as the DM desperately tries to get everyone back to fighting the evil overlord, but I'd see Laundryverse players leaning into it. It would, of course, be a magical farm, but that's no longer a huge novelty compared to the external world.

For plausible deniability, published campaigns would not set players in opposition to a too obvious game version of the New Management. We still want to battle the PM but it has to be reskinned enough to be safe. So we are very much not toppling the capricious skull-obsessed tyrant of Breytann. Maybe he shows up as the annoying landlord or the mayor of the next village. It would all be a lesser scale of threat, and a bit indirect in its relation to external politics, but still allowing an element of catharsis. A game world that is twee and safe and nostalgic on the surface, at least as published, but allows player groups to boost - if they choose - the wish fulfillment aspects in relation to what's going on outside.

9:

Magic and Spell Auditor

You did what, where? Is that covered by your rules of engagement and insurance?

10:

As an occasional GM, I already have put my players through urban fantasy settings. The Laundryverse, however, always struck me as being deeply routed in the Kafkaesque structures of large cooperations/organizations, and the intrinsic tendency of those organizations to develop a sense (and need) for self-preservation. On top of that, The Man (as a stand in for top-level executives or government leaders), when confronted with an unknown/unplanned "thing", will quickly strive to integrate it into the order it knows. In short: Bureaucracy conquers all.

This is where the Shoggoth Case Worker and Tentacle Equality Officer comes in. These two titles (game classes) come with a plethora of responsibility and the training has a very high dropout rate (liquefied brain matter disqualifies). Their (your) job is to work for the benefit of The Public, as defined in the new Section 3 Par. 17-PI of the new anti discrimination laws. Those pesky vigilantes attacking many-eyed citizens, or rioters, anarchists and malcontents that threaten the public order! No discrimination against the new immigrants is tolerated, no matter how many eyes, mouths or appendages they have.

You are not alone in their fight for a Better Tomorrow(TM), as the Moral Adjustment Attendant will use cutting edge technology (and brain-warping mind powers) to find, and educate, those that threaten Will Of The People*

*Represented in full the Prime Minister

So mechanically, in an RPG were player characters typically serve the establishment, the roles of who is the monster/enemy and who is your friend are now reversed, obviously. For systems that use an alignment grid (sigh), this makes the paladin and other exclusively Good classes that usually fit into the "preserve the status quo" corner pretty much impossible to play. See Paladin or equivalent. This would make for a "realistic" scenario were people are basically waking up in a "evil mirror universe", only its their own but the status quo has radically shifted. And with the added CNG-induced superpowers, an "we are the underdog superheros that fight the tyrannical government/dictatorship" plot basically designs itself. However, this being thematically lovecraftian, they will not win, and/or realize halfway through that society now sees THEM as the malcontents. Thats pretty easy to picture: All those folks screaming for law and order get their wish monkey-paw style, with a strong new leader, making away with the riff-raff, totally supporting him fully knowing WHAT he is. And those underdogs fighting the system? The mass media will label them domestic terrorists before the government has the chance, and the masses will cheer the "strong hand" and "valiant effort" of the civil servants bringing them to "justice".

The proper theme would probably be "The Monster was Man all along".

Man, the air-quotes are getting out of hand here. Well, my take-away from this though experiment is that Laundryverse post-CNG is basically that Evil Empire with Devoted Citizens apply. Magic is magic, based on math or otherwise, is mechanically the same. Only the added cost of an early retirement with dementia and CJD. I am not versed in that many RPGs, but I am pretty sure some have a form of "Mage Sickness" to, apart from being lore, mechanically nerf magic users or just make them more rare. I am always a fan of the "all Power comes with a Cost" trope.

11:

In my case, rather longer - and I never played much except the original Adventure. These may be old hat, but I haven't seen them in my occasional looks at AD&D classes, so I mentioned them just in case.

One thing I thought of following thoughts in another context (*) was an entity that would change the rules of mathematics, physics and/or magic in its vicinity - rather than transforming existing people or things - which was a fairly common SF trope and one stage, but rather went out of fashion. It would be tricky to deal with in a AD&D sense, in that existing methods would misbehave or fail, and would have be modified or invented anew - possibly even for each entity.

Indirectly related to that is an ecology of monsters, in which the only practical way to control or kill the worst ones is by herding or manipulating other very nasty ones, and putting up with the losses you suffer. I am specifically thinking of being unable to deal with them without taking losses (and not in the form of sacrifices), so they could be defeated only by a team effort.

12:

Just so you know (and because I'm too dumb to come up with anything original), if we had had mobile phones capable of safely doing low powered disguises + run the game system in 1983, we would have done homebrew Dream Park every weekend in a classical AD&D setting. "It's VR as it should be." (that probably also works as the tagline of the software company that builds the engine app)

13:

All of the campaigns and modules from Laundry Games Ltd are incredibly detailed and widely acclaimed for their fantastical world-building and challenging god-tier end bosses. Players are encouraged to share their campaign notes and approaches on /r/laundrygames, whose moderators never seem to sleep and are quick to respond with cryptic replies.

Sensitives swear that Laundry Games new line of dice are special, leading many to applaud the brilliance of the Laundry Games marketing team in sowing such preposterous rumors. Critics like to point out that Laundry's first breakout hit, Sleeper In The Pyramid, is even more unwinnable than the original Tomb of Horrors. Still, some groups have spent years replaying the campaign in their efforts to beat the Sleeper.

14:

This is from the genre emulation perspective, a skeleton for a 5e structure - every character that does not get a lot of fighting monsters time could inspire a background, and everyone that fights monsters could be a class. I don’t think there will be too many independent adventurers because curious in-universe computer PHDs get their faces eaten by the omnipresent leopards, with precision. And if they don’t they tend to be antagonists. Every PC is state sponsored or in the program.

Backgrounds - gives resources and skills STEM Student Art Student Reverend Doctor PBWPWT (Poor Bastard in the Wrong Place/ Wrong Time) Laundry Lifer Military Police Spy/Mole Corporate Psycho Subsumed Personality I’m Just an Analyst

For the classes, I assume everyone will have access to “magic”, through tech gizmos or depending on your level or rightness of the stars, casting. Humans will have classes, and meta humans will be race as class.

Practitioner: Management Fast Track - the face class, lowest risk of growing tentacles, trusted with artifacts, advantage on bureaucracy checks Practitioner: Field Operative - Fighter + Gizmos Practitioner: Outside Asset - Rogue + Gizmos Practitioner: Cultist - Warlocky or Clericy, reports directly to the New Management

Meta Human: Vampire - Super Heavyweight Asskicker? Meta Human: Super - Super Heavyweight Asskicker? Mk II Meta Human: Alfar - the “safest” magic user Meta Human: Mythos Hybrid - Infiltration Rogue

15:

I could see gamers using their new powers to play real life D & D or whatever gaming system appeals to them. Groups would meet at the local tavern and go forth in dungeons (etc) created by Gamemasters who suddenly have the ability to create real fantasy campaigns. Whether the Gamemasters could control their creations (or the players for that matter) could be problematic.

Maybe the Black Pool in the Manitoba Legislature really will be a Black Pool. Perhaps the sphinxes on it's roof will start issuing riddles... it is hard to say (It is fun having a Legislature building designed by a Freemason).

Don from Winnipeg (aka Maruad)

16:

That actually is a good point. I haven't played since the 80s either, but it looks like the most recent D&D version is 5, released in 2014, so that would have been the new thing when magic was released on the world.

So there are a bunch of ways this could go: --One is that people start playing with Laundryverse real magic using the D&D context they know, and there's a public panic over the game, just as there was in the 1980s, but with more reason (Timmy really did conjure a demon during that basement game. By accident). --Another is that D&D was always about escapism, so would it change, with perhaps downplaying elements that are too close to reality? --What's the role of alignments, especially the good alignments, in a grimdark game? Would more people play paladins, or fewer? --LARPing? Probably less of a good idea than it used to be before. --Where the reality of Laundryverse magic made the rules look silly, I suspect a lot of players would hack the rules. Whether WotC introduced changes is left to the author.

17:

The Laundryverse, however, always struck me as being deeply routed in the Kafkaesque structures of large cooperations/organizations, and the intrinsic tendency of those organizations to develop a sense (and need) for self-preservation.

No, you're thinking of it as the Laundryverse.

I'm thinking of it as the universe of the New Management.

I'm asking what ordinary folks would do on games night, not for what some highly specialized civil servants would do on their time off.

18:

There would certainly be some players who would try and bring D&D into line with the real world. But, a lot of players, perhaps most, would find that to be an escapsism fail. I'm in the middle of writing a science-fiction LARP and one of the things we recently did was remove every disease and pandemic related plot. The writers didn't want to deal, and we doubt the players would want to deal.

So, if limited to changing D&D, I'd suggest a reduction in magic or making magic less like the real world. A lot of groups would stick to the old version out of familiarity and comfort, but that doesn't really answer the question, so lower magic.

But, in answer to "what might be the new hotness"; I would expect genre shifting away from anything with magic. Science fiction would be the most obvious place to go. I'd also expect people to try things even more removed from the real world. Best case, by which I mean most amusing, would be a huge revival of Bunnies and Burrows. B&B replacing D&D would be great for forgetting human worries. Obviously inspired by Watership Down, it is even very British, which fits the Laundry setting.

19:

I think alignments would be very important, otherwise why play D&D?

As for LArping, well the players are no longer just players. It really is D&D. The consequences would be real... so maybe not so much escapism though it might start that way.

Hacking the rules... would the rules hack back? What happens when GMs games unintentionally overlap with reality and other GMs games/game systems? Chaos?

20:

In a world where elves and wizards are suddenly real, LARPing and cosplay is likely going to be both culturally insensitive and dangerous (for the same reasons that blackface is noxious and cosplay with fake guns and swords is dangerous in our world).

Decades since I played, but I have dim memories of a very silly campaign where we all had God-level powers/ artefacts, and the only meaningful threats were biggger, badder Gods and our own teenaged arseholery. I'm guessing that sort of thing could be taken as criticism of the new management, blasphemy, or an inadvertent summoning ritual in the laundryverse.

Elderly Cynic's comment @11 re. situationally changing the game rules reminded of the extremely fun PARANOIA. The, well, paranoia inducing game mechanics and the setting in an insane, technologically mediated world run by sociopaths and lunatics where nobody remembers what "outside" looks like might appeal to inhabitants of the laundryverse. Or just to the inhabitants of 2020.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paranoia_(role-playing_game)

21:

People will dream of mundanity and wish for tedium:

https://boingboing.net/2010/11/03/synergon-a-business.html

22:

In a world where actual magic exists and is based in advanced maths and probability there's zero chance somebody in my D&D group doesn't finagle himself a real-life "Amulet of Natural 20s" to boost their game. The resulting permanent minor brain damage would seem a small price to pay for finally managing to actually land a 5th level Chromatic Orb in combat.

23:

In a world where elves and wizards are suddenly real, LARPing and cosplay is likely going to be both culturally insensitive and dangerous

I'm several years ahead of you: that's a plot element in The Nightmare Stacks towards the end.

25:

There would be a handful of games touching on the old "wizards playing accountants" jokes, and at least two popular streams playing them un-ironically.

Magic in general would be more powerful. Lots of single use magic items/ritual magic, and artificers able to make them. Primary magic user characters would be less common if they tried to adapt to the "eat your brains" rules of magic in the world around them.

Superhero games would be the easiest to adapt to something resembling the "real" world, and would have a renaissance.

Shadowrun would have a Call of Cthulhu crossover book.

26:

Ok, one question, how much does the general public know about K syndrome? Because with knowledge about it in the open, people will be even less likely to implement any magic where describibg the ritual involved might

a) in a best-case scenario, open a small gate to a Venus-like planet orbiting a cluster of black holes and magnetars, and we know how hard the stench goes away, never mind the neighbours being upset Alexa's WiFi broke down again...

b) in the worst case scenario, put a nice "crunchy with ketchup" sign up on the brain tissue of the players AND GM.

So expect magic and psionics either going out of fashion or being replaced by magical systems carefully designed not to resemble any real life magic. I have a vision of elaborate descriptions of putting butter on bread.

Also, any campaign with the goal if toppling down the lawful evil sorcerous overlord would become quite unpopular, except in certain chapters of society. You don't want HIM to have wrong impressions, or you become PHANG fodder.

Sorry, I'm not that creative...

27:

I'm going to have to go back and reread now.

28:

Ditto that one for me. It has been awhile since I have reread the series. It is an old habit I have with about 5 or 6 authors though Charles is the only SF&F author I still reread. The remainder are crime/mysteries and one historical fiction series.

Don from Winnipeg

29:

Interesting. But, in the light of #17, both of my comments are addressing the wrong question. Paranoia looks like a game that would attract geeks, not ordinary humans, as were those ideas!

30:

I'm asking what ordinary folks would do on games night, ...

Considering that most SF, fantasy and role-playing games are about escaping into an alternative world, a plausible model would be something with a rule-set that is NOT like anything in the Laundryverse or what life under the New Management was actually like.

Some people, of course, would want to go back in time and revisit the 20th century with 'improvements', as seen in the popularity of historical fantasy and steampunk.

31:

Huge question, Charlie, and I'm going to be really annoying.

For one, I haven't played (with one exception[1]) since early 80s. For another, me and my friends I played with (note that we were all in our 20's or 30's) had an opinion of AD&D: BURN IT. We played based on original D&D (in one book, it said, in so many words, "this is all a suggestion, modify the rules as you like".

Besides, all the precreated Magic Items... why should any of them really exist? What happens if you think you're going to get X... and instead get something similar, that doesn't quite do that/work that way?

The only modification I made was a spell point system (MU had intel & constitution, cleric wisdom & constitution. You run out of spell points, you're unconscious or dead (if in negative numbers).[2]

Now, everyone talking about escapism... y'all seem to forget that the original six were playing Chainmailm abd added monsters and magic. Which makes it a variant of a classic wargame. Wargames are taught and used as teaching tools in every military college in the world.

Doesn't sound like escapism to me, sounds like training in WFF DO YOU DO WHEN....?

One problem people living then are going to have to deal with are all the calls from monster and magic destruction insurance industry.

Also, if magic's become that easy, playing a magic user, if you do more than some dumb 12 yr old, there becomes a danger that you'll actually pull up magic. Now, how are you going to control it?

What happens to folks playing clerics? Esp if, say, they're clerics of non Elder Ones, like, Isis, or Mithras? Or Vodoun/Santeria/Cantable? Or (please, please, no) Ahura-Mazda? And what on earth is happening in, say, western North America with the Native Americans, and in India, with Hindus?

I will say that I created my own game once, only played it a time or two: you came into my house, with whatever you, for real, could afford and carry, and we go down to the basement, and I have a Machine, and it takes you sideways in time, to parallel worlds. Going along one axis, magic works more, but science works less. The other way is the reverse.... In either case you really don't want to go too far that way, as physical laws and constants start changing. Got too far towards magic, and fire doesn't work, forget guns. Oh, and how are you cells doing?....

  • My late wife and I were working on a fight scene in an sf novel (which I really do intend to turn into a two book series one of these years). I pulled out my god kit, and ran it as straight melee rounds. After she wrote it up and published it in the APA she was in, the responses were, "that was the most realistic fight scene I've ever read!"

  • I'm a High Level Magic User: Earthquake! Um, they're still coming, um, er, sleep!sleep!sleep!

  • 32:

    Another observation: TTRPG's are far more popular, diverse and evolved than the 80's-90's. There's a significant audience for streaming live-play RPGs, for example Critical Role's videos have 150M+ views. I feel like that should somehow be a factor here.

    33:

    cosplay-while-black can be fatal,/i>

    Seems like anything while black can be fatal. :-(

    34:

    My guess is that high fantasy RPG settings would stick around as escape. You still get to play larger than life and otherwise unrealistic characters, just sudenly differently unrealistic.

    Urban and gothic fantasy RPGs would get reality expansions and require continual revision as more comes to light.

    Steve Jackson Games would be raided for incorporating too much reality.

    Board games would get rushed expansions and a few would be done well.

    "Navigating Reality For The Discerning Hero, A System Neutral Supplement" would be kickstarted to record levels.

    ${RPG} Reality Edition* * subject to change

    ${RPG} for Times Long Forgot

    Going further beyond the original question---

    Mainstream fiction would immediately try to adapt by badly reinventing every wheel SF, F, and horror spent untold eons fine tuning.

    Lovecraft's estate would lobby heavily to extend/reinstate copyright for his works then sue! sue! sue!. His works would be taken by some as holy texts, both for real and synically as justification for atrocities hitherto imaginable by only the most depraved.

    Archeology and anthropology would undergo a period of soul searching followed by a renaissance.

    The Illuminati would be exposed.

    Bigfoot, Yeti, etc would be tracked down and interrogated for knowledge and experience of reality.

    Authors known for predicting near future events would be disappeared into protective custody / service to the realm.

    35:

    I wonder if something like Paranoia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paranoia_(role-playing_game) ) with added magic might work. Paranoia features high technology with dystopian politics, so that would catch the mood of the times.

    One thing about futuristic games like Paranoia is that they turn our current technology up to 11 in extrapolation. So what happens in a fantasy world if the magic of Laundryverse gets turned up to 11? Not sure if the question even makes sense, but an RPG set in such a world is going to need an answer.

    36:

    An abandoned Laundry Files RPG campaign idea I wanted to do:

    Secret occult history of rocketry, where Jack Parsons did occult rituals (the Babylon Working, for example) to ensure his spirit remained after his death. The players would start out investigating odd interdimensional breakouts at a rocket engine research firm, and end up finding the true history of rocketry in the US and abroad. In the process, they eventually end up on the Moon, to discover that the entire lunar interior is hollowed out and currently hosts a massive Shuggoth who's been possessed by the ghost of Jack Parsons. It's the Black Chamber's bid to evacuate to the Moon and potentially even use it as a ship to get away from the planet, in CASE NIGHTMARE GREEN.

    Of course, that's a bit obsolete now that, in the series, GREEN is already happening.

    Honestly post-GREEN I feel like reality would actually resemble the famous quote by Robert Anton Wilson, where 'rival gangs of shamans fought each other to a standstill'. Except before the standstill, in the midst of the fight for defining whatever new reality is immanent. In that sense it might end up looking more like the setting of White Wolf's Mage The Ascension.

    37:

    Well, yes, the Laundryverse is the "old" way of doing things. My idea was that a group of players, assuming they wanted to be "Good", would either play as cogs in the machine (aka civil servants under the New Management), and work against it from the inside, or they would be the underdog outsiders, working against the regime with anything they can think of: CNG superpowers, bootleg magic-ware on hacked smartwatches, good old propaganda, delivered via brain-hacking earworm song ("viral marketing") and sabotage. Any ordinary citizen can do a lot of damage, given enough motivation and a minimum of brain power.

    If we are talking META, i.e., people living under the New Management, playing (board,VR,console) games at home or online in a circle of friends, ... oh boy. Afaik, the canon text mentions that the Mandate is not averse to surpress ideas that are not in his best interest, so I imagine social media will be tightly patrolled/controlled, and all games on those sites slowly transform into reflecting themes the NM wants encouraged. Similarly with board and video games. The production time for such games can be quite long, so that will take a little until the new series of "The Rh'ley Adventures" (A family-friendly board game exploring the lost city) or "Plot" (A clone of Clue, with the change that here you try to stop an assassination attempt on the NM before it happens) comes out. Video games in general will probably take a hit at the publishers mostly sit in the USS (United States of Sleep). So they will face hard tariffs or bans until a regime-friendly industry can develop or they ship approved UK versions.

    Changes that players will likely see: * Typical enemies in such games as Zombies or Vampires either vanish or be portrayed as the good guys. * Subversion of the status quo will not be glorified * The superhero genre will try (and probably fail) to transition to non-fiction, with novelizations dominated by regime-friendly superheroes and the villains will be whoever the NM says. * A lot of "propaganda" media will demonize or ridicule foreign powers, framing them at least as untrustworthy. * Rewritten history or historic fiction, e.g., revival of the James Bond novels, if not a re-write of the existing ones, as always having served the NM.

    This more in the vein you wanted?

    38:

    I think I'd go chat with @TychoBrahe, aka Jerry Holkins the guy behind penny arcade and PAX.

    39:

    But, in answer to "what might be the new hotness"; I would expect genre shifting away from anything with magic. Science fiction would be the most obvious place to go. I'd also expect people to try things even more removed from the real world. Best case, by which I mean most amusing, would be a huge revival of Bunnies and Burrows. B&B replacing D&D would be great for forgetting human worries. Obviously inspired by Watership Down, it is even very British, which fits the Laundry setting.

    Thanks for the reference to Bunnies and Burrows. Hadn't heard of it.

    Why not Sherlock Holmes and Victorian England at the height of the empire? In the context of a Laundryverse novel, it would be amusing to see a mystery RPG using something akin to the D&D game engine, without the magic. Maybe the old Boot Hill system, revamped?

    The problem with writing such an RPG in a novel universe where black lives matter didn't happen, but writing for an audience that where BLM is THE happening of the summer, is avoiding the racism inherent in the old empire. But it could be done, I think.

    40:

    While the events within the world will have been inescapable public knowledge, the nuance that the main characters and the readers have won't be publicly widespread. People would know that there were some superheroes and some magic and that elves invaded from somewhere and that things were getting... weird... but the details about sufficiently-advanced-computation would be difficult to percolate.

    So what I would expect to see is not deep dives into magic lore because there's no mechanical basis for understanding. Rather, I would expect to see the equivalent of dozens of kickstarted tabletop wargame/rpg hybrids based on "current events"- with new kickstarters opening weekly. You'd also see boutique RPGs about specific high sigma events. So I would expect a White Wolf edition about the Host but with a fair amount of counterfactual and overly romanticized information. Public LARPing would die down because it would entail a material risk of being mistaken for the real thing and eliciting an armed response.

    41:

    The obvious one that springs to mind for me is a "Dr Who" RPG (there probably even was one, back in the day.)

    Tying knots in the Wheeler-Everrett Multiverse with time anomalies might not even be impossible in our actual universe (c.f. Time Crystals being a real thing these days) let alone in a fictional version.

    Just ensure Derek is not DM-ing, eh?

    42:

    Hmm. Okay, let's see:

    In the modern world, we play D&D because we want to escape from this mundane world to a more exciting one, where we get to have a chance to participate in the choices that change the world, instead of being helpless pawns in someone else's schemes.

    This is a world that has seen invasions of elves on TV. This is a world with people who have superpowers. This is a world where this kind of shit is increasingly public; it's a world where the stuff of fantasy is real and in your face.

    I feel like the result of this would be a turning away from settings full of wizards and magic. A retreat to comforting scenarios where the universe makes sense. The sarcastic answer is "everyone is playing Papers & Paychecks, the game of office politics and tax returns", but that's still way too close to reality. I'm gonna posit that most RPGers have instead started picking up the sci-fi settings. Pull out your old Traveller books, your old Gamma World manuals, finally see if the Ringworld rules are actually usable, get a GURPS Ultratech campaign going, lay in some really good weed and start up a campaign of Myriad Worlds, etc, etc.

    Fantasize that the world is still ruled by the rues of physics. Fantasize that a computer the size of a planet isn't going to instantly collapse into a portal for eldritch tentacle-hate. Fantasize that a simple energy blaster in your hands can make a difference in anything that matters.

    43:

    Personal context: My gaming group of queer/trans people is currently finishing up a run through the 5ed ‘Curse of Strahd’ module (PCs trapped in a vampire’s cursed demiplane, horror tropes abound), and planning to follow it up with a Blades In The Dark campaign set in a fantasy Boston (some sort of heist gang/criminal enterprise). My takeaway from this, re: how living under the New Management would adjust things, is that we’re a lot more likely to tweak elements in a system we like than to rewrite the whole thing – eg, our Strahd is a vampire lesbian incel, and the party is the typical wish-fulfillment of big buff jock ladies and sharp-tongued tsundere magic ladies – but otherwise we’re playing it as written.

    So if they’re playing something that already exists, like D&D, chances are the rules themselves aren’t going to change much - perhaps a revival of a psionic class, for characters looking to distance themselves from the wizard/cleric model of magic that would seem suddenly more fraught (although warlocks would be prescient too) – but it’s going to be more character choices or stories changed. I could see an increased prevalence of all-fighter/rogue parties, if the players are all tired of dealing with magic in their everyday lives (in which case, fewer dragons and more illithids and evil sorcerers to smite), or conversely, an all wizard/sorcerer party for people who want to make the most of it and take down giants and dragons and similar sorts.

    Shifting to other ideas, a superhero game themed around a TV show that fictionalizes the exploits of superhero law enforcement might also be a popular choice; a lot of people are looking to play games that are similar to media they’ve enjoyed, and I imagine that the New Management has given rise to a lot of interesting media trying to cash in on new crazes. If none of the players are given to heroics, it might be that they’d spend an evening imagining themselves into a comic-book universe. You could hack D&D to do this, but you could also just pick a different system and get a whole new set of tropes from that – eg, Masks, where your ‘hit points’ (such as they are) are emotions, and most of your XP comes from failing rolls.

    Another interesting thought about the timeline, too – D&D 4th Edition came out in 2008, and 5th Edition was only just released in 2014… It’s very likely that this could have tanked adoption of the new system, and so your group might very well be playing with 4ed rules. Intriguingly, one of the common complaints about 4ed was that it felt too ‘push-button-y’ since ‘every class cast spells;’ a rogue set their daggers on fire once/day to deal elemental damage, or a fighter might hit an enemy hard enough to heal their friends. In a world where suddenly everyone could be a bit magic, this might not seem like such a problem. If that’s the case, you might notice things like more Minion monsters (who have only 1 hp, to both swarms and the clearing-thereof), and a greater emphasis on tactical positioning and movement (a lot of PC abilities specifically focused on pushing, pulling, sliding or otherwise moving opponents and allies around, as well as establishing zones of control and damage for other PCs to exploit.) I never actually got the chance to play 4ed, but given its relatively short lifespan and interesting position on the timeline, it might be worth mining for its own tropes in this ‘what-if’ sort of scenario.

    44:

    "Tentacle Equality Officer" - just as well I wasn't eating or drinking anything when I read that! I see you are also chanelling the Trumpverse into this scenario. ( As in The Monster was Man all along )

    45:

    From my own experiences playing casually with a group of friends pretty regularly, D&D is among other things primarily a way to get away from the real world for a while and immerse yourself in a story you play with other people you care about, and I've found that a big reason for being able to commit to that separate world is it being inherently otherworldly with concepts and factors (magic, monsters etc.) that don't exist in the real world.

    Given you flip that on its head in the scenario above, it seems natural to me that citizens of a post CASE NIGHTMARE GREEN world would gravitate toward a world without any of that (e.g. People playing D&D would play in a world without magic or monsters that parallel things that are now exist in their reality, OR that if those elements do exist, they would fill the same niche that, say, an encounter with a dog or people of a town plays in RPG campaigns now)

    46:

    At the risk of getting a ban. Psionics :p

    47:

    Re Greg Tingey [42]: You are welcome. Trumpverse is definitly on the far end of the bell curve, right next to the "bizarro mirror universe". In THAT one, Cuthullu itself ran for office as an independent in 2016, and lost because the oil companies feared it would ban off-shore drilling and invested heavily in attack ads. It also tried to swallow Mitch McConnels soul, but that didn't work for obvious reasons.

    Yeah, channeling my inner nihilist, putting him into a committee with my outer pessimism and sleep deprivation will bring forth things like this.

    48:

    think there would at first be more board games, like Space Hulk of the early 90's with Elves as the enemy.

    Then it might become cool to be sporting the fashions of the Host (something along Harry turtledove's Colonisation series, it being fashionable to emulate the Race ).

    As for RPG's, think it would revert to more mundane styles, harking back to pre CASE NIGHMARE situations. Later mods as things become stable might be 'Host cultural attache', 'Basilsk wrangler',' 'Host Surgeon' ahem .

    49:

    At first I was inclined to agree about people wanting an escape, but then I remembered that in the 70s and 80s we played games about the Cold War, including survivalist games about what happens after the Cold War went Hot.

    So I think some people would play to escape, and those games would be set in the warmly-remembered past or an alternate future. So classic D&D, Castles & Crusades, Traveller, etc. Space: 1889 and other steampunk/gaspunk games.

    Those would be pretty safe games to play — totally imaginary, absolutely nothing to do with the current government.

    I think there would also be the equivalent of survivalist games, but I'm not certain what form they would take. If the New management is as interventionist as I suspect then they could be very dangerous things to play, so I would expect both homebrew games (possibly with commercial rules) and 'fearless agents of the New Management help save Britain' games from commercial publishers.

    I do wonder if playing a game could be used to train the gamers into being (unwitting) agents of some power?

    50:

    I think the concept of this being D&D is missing the point. D&D is about inventing a magical world with mythical beasts which is noticeably distinct from reality. In the Laundryverse in the lead-up to CNG, post-elven-invasion, post-Mandate, all the monsters are out of the woodwork and all this is reality.

    So what kind of wargaming deals with reality? Answer: Historical wargaming.

    At any given moment, there will be hundreds of people round the world preparing to refight major national or international battles, or to stage "what-if" battles which never actually happened such as Vikings versus Shaolin monks. A plethora of rulesets and models exist for this.

    In the "new normal", I see a near-complete crash in fantasy RPGs. Some will be too triggering for people who've lost loved ones, and some will be shut down by various agencies or entities for being too realistic and potentially summoning things (as all those "concerned parents" used to say about D&D back in the 80s).

    More to the point though, fantasy RPGs will reflect an outdated view of magic in the same way as Golden Age sci-fi reflects an outdated view of space travel. In 50 years time (assuming we live that long!), maybe it'll have interest as a cultural artifact that way. But in the short term, fantasy RPGs will be trapped in Uncanny Valley as too close to reality but not properly accurate.

    Historical wargaming though? Oh boy... Every major historical wargaming system will immediately get ruleset upgrades for the new abilities, new races, new units, and all the rest. As the only known example of its kind, the invasion of Yorkshire will be the classic battle to fight, with skirmish-level battles for taking or defending individual key points, and full-on campaign mode for the whole thing. There will be counterfactual battles for "what if Scorpion Stare worked properly (or failed entirely)?", "what if the RAF had more Typhoons?", and so on. And historical counterfactual campaigns will no doubt also be set up for "what if they had invaded in 1700/1800/1880/1920/1945/1960/date of choice?". Separately we also have the various powered people to deal with, who also warrant their own skirmish-level combat systems.

    And when it comes to RPGs, I think they're going to follow wargaming in the same way as fantasy wargaming and RPGs are intimately linked. With that context, I think the kind of RPGs which succeed will be akin to the spy-thriller type RPGs around today, except that the Bond/Bourne protagonists are joined by powered people, elves, slave races, and various others; and the environment will be something recognisable as their world right there, right now.

    51:

    I don't know about Dungeons and Dragons, but if people want to get away from the new reality then some of them might go for older games. I was thinking of poker. Ordinary people who get a bit of magical power, but don't know much about it, would be using their stuff (I imagine, eg. a magic accoutant with an unreal grasp of proliferating futures, and horribly good calculating skills). A poker game would be a natural. Thing is, despite the mixture of motives, including a desire for 'normality' from some people, and easy money from some others, the thing would drift into being a real life D&D, despite what they wanted. The kind of thing I am thinking of might start with magic accountant winning too much, then the woman with incendiary hair starts sparking at distracting moments, someone's stray tentacle with an eye on the end is spotted lurking behind the other players. It doesn't take long until there are all kinds of rules and a hierarchy of who can play in what place (and D&D is mostly about rules,isn't it?), and with that some players get to go into extra-dimensional spaces, which proliferate, same as game spaces.

    52:

    Video games in general will probably take a hit at the publishers mostly sit in the USS (United States of Sleep)

    Ahem: You know GRAND THEFT AUTO was made just up the road from my flat?

    The UK video game industry is big, much bigger as a proportion of the global industry than the UK film/TV sector. While it's significantly smaller than the US games industry, that's really because the USA is a larger/more populous nation.

    Tariffs/trade barriers: we're getting a crash course in how they don't affect trade in soft goods that much -- they merely affect the price the end consumer pays, and prices of software can be tweaked endlessly: once you've amortized the development costs in your home market, exports are basically free money and you adjust the pricing to maximize revenue.

    53:

    if K syndrome is known

    To the general public, post main story arc, K Syndrome is known as MAD (Metahuman Associated Dementia), mostly a degenerative disease affecting superpowered folks (especially mad science supervillains). The public awareness of it is muddied and unclear because some stuff is not really public knowledge (precise details of Elder God cults other than the PM's are ... let's just say it's not healthy to talk about them in public) and other stuff is emphasized as a distraction (look up there! It's Officer Friendly, protecting Londoners from dissident supervillain terrorists!).

    54: Community Activist (aka a 'Rabble Rouser')

    Alignment: Chaotic-Neutral Key Characteristics: CHA CON INT

    Attributes

    Catch Phrase: This character class is required to have a short saying (no more than 10 words) advocating for some sort of change to the local status quo. Actions perceived to support the goal of the Catch Phrase gain a temporary (1 minute) +1 bonus to all CHA rolls. Actions taken directly contrary to the Phrase cause all Grassrooted followers to make immediate Saves against Grassrooting with Advantage.

    The Catch Phrase can be changed once per day, but all Grassrooted followers will then make an additional Grassrooting Save.

    Immune to Persuasion, Charm, Intimidation, and Frightened.

    Special Abilities

    'Grassrooting' (1/week) - Able to persuade a sentient target to become an absolutely loyal/fanatical follower (a 'Rooter'). Target saving throw: 1d20 + (WIS+CHA bonuses)/2 vs. Activist's (INT+CHA)/2. Additional Rooter saving throws only occur when the Rooter is injured directly or indirectly by Activist action, or perception that the Activist 'lost' a confrontation.

    Maximum number of 'Rooters' at any one time is CON bonus plus CHA bonus. When the maximum number is reached, Any attempt to add 'Rooters' past the maximum will result in each existing 'Rooter' to making a saving throw, with advantage, starting with the Rooters with the easiest Save target. This continues for all the Rooters. If all the Rooters fail their saves (e.g., remain Rooters), then another full round of saving throws

    'Gumming up the Works' (1/day) - Cast against any group within sight (maximum size = INT). WIS Save (1d20) vs. INT+CHA or WIS bonus.

    Targets who fail their save suffer from Confusion with disadvantage on all skill and attack rolls for the rest of the encounter.Community Activist (aka a 'Rabble Rouser')

    Alignment: Chaotic-Neutral Key Characteristics: CHA CON INT

    Attributes

    Catch Phrase: This character class is required to have a short saying (no more than 10 words) advocating for some sort of change to the local status quo. Actions perceived to support the goal of the Catch Phrase gain a temporary (1 minute) +1 bonus to all CHA rolls. Actions taken directly contrary to the Phrase cause all Grassrooted followers to make immediate Saves against Grassrooting with Advantage.

    The Catch Phrase can be changed once per day, but all Grassrooted followers will then make an additional Grassrooting Save.

    Immune to Persuasion, Charm, Intimidation, and Frightened.

    Special Abilities

    'Grassrooting' (1/week) - Able to persuade a sentient target to become an absolutely loyal/fanatical follower (a 'Rooter'). Target saving throw: 1d20 + (WIS+CHA bonuses)/2 vs. Activist's (INT+CHA)/2. Additional Rooter saving throws only occur when the Rooter is injured directly or indirectly by Activist action, or perception that the Activist 'lost' a confrontation.

    Maximum number of 'Rooters' at any one time is CON bonus plus CHA bonus. When the maximum number is reached, Any attempt to add 'Rooters' past the maximum will result in each existing 'Rooter' to making a saving throw, with advantage, starting with the Rooters with the easiest Save target. This continues for all the Rooters. If all the Rooters fail their saves (e.g., remain Rooters), then another full round of saving throws

    'Gumming up the Works' (1/day) - Cast against any group within sight (maximum size = INT). WIS Save (1d20) vs. INT+CHA or WIS bonus.

    Targets who fail their save suffer from Confusion with disadvantage on all skill and attack rolls for the rest of the encounter....

    +++++++++++ 2nd idea - Zombie Astronauts....

    55:

    I think the question is deeply tied in with the questions of, (in the Laudryverse,) "what does the public know" and "what does the public really know?"

    If I really knew for sure that some iterations of mathematics could summon a demon or turn someone invisible, as much as I love the game my D&D books would go on the nearest fire ASAP and I would melt my dice with a blowtorch. After that point such items would be forbidden in my house. Accidentally summoning a demon while playing D&D is a perfect definition of the "low probability/high consequence" event.

    I'd also either eliminate or carefully restrict my computer usage - and might depending on circumstances either seek out real magical training or find a little town full of people who were hiding from everything, move there, and strive to blend in.

    On the other hand, if I lived in the Laundryverse and was a low-information person, I'd probably dismiss the madness around me as "hysteria" and go on playing the game, being very befuddled by everything happening around me. Teenagers would probably fish their parents D&D books out of the trash and playing the game would go back to being a really frightening act of teenage rebellion.

    Just for added fun, during the pandemic my real world gaming-group has moved to online meetings and are rolling dice on the computer. I'm guessing this wouldn't play out well in the Laundryverse.

    So I'd imagine the following changes to society: The obvious one would be lots and lots of people offering "magical" training. Some of it would work and some of it wouldn't. Some of it "wouldn't work" very badly. Lots of the stuff done by The Laundry would filter down to the street, possibly mutating wildly as it iterated streetward.

    Similarly, there would also be "superhero" training for those who express their magic in that fashion. It wouldn't surprise me if another coven of vampires showed up, this one offering eventual transformation for those who "made their bones" as minions. Etc. In terms of "human potential" movements, all hell lets out for breakfast. Possibly the most dangerous trend would relate to those martial arts which practice some kind of energy movement - I'd expect practitioners hurling real-life energy balls at opponents and blowing them to flinders!

    As for the game itself, I'd expect it to move steampunk-ward quickly. Artificers would replace magicians, medics or "herbal healers" would replace clerics, (playing a cleric after Case Nightmare Green would be downright dangerous) and bards would probably fall out of use - what use is a second-rate fighter who shouldn't do magic? I'd also expect that gods, angels, demons, etc. would start moving out of gameplay pretty quickly. Expect monsters to get more science-fictional - something like Godzilla rather than a dragon, for example, as the boss battle. "Cyborg" would be a new character class, because staying away from magic would be essential to survival, or at least to safety. Techno-shaman might also be a new class, but it would be comparatively dangerous to play. Maybe Nano-Artificer and Genetic Artificer characters classes would evolve as well.

    So for safety reasons I'd expect D&D to end up looking like a failed singulatarian takeoff which ended up with steam-powered everything. Unfortunately, given the nature of Case Nightmare Green a D&D which looked like that wouldn't be much safer at all... (Musical Sting of the "Dum Dum" variety!)

    56:

    Only skimmed the comments, but from the OP I am not clear whether you are asking about a campaign where the characters are in the Laundryverse or where the players are in the Laundryverse (with the characters in a somewhat-traditional D&D setting).

    Either way, one topic that springs to mind is the way that ritual magicians lose their brains from K syndrome. In my experience, this sort of "kill yourself for power" trade-off is popular in literature but deeply problematic as gameplay. There are several reasons for this, but the big one is "you used too much magic" is not a socially-adequate reason for kicking your friend out of the campaign, so in practice anyone who dies this way will just start a new character. That in turn allows a player to go full-out in the secure knowledge that they'll just respawn.

    As such, in a well-designed game, I expect K syndrome might appear as background lore but no player class will use it as a real gameplay element. Either ritual magicians are an NPC-only class, or there are other rules limiting their magic to such an extent that K syndrome isn't a practical concern within the timespan of a campaign. PCs might occasionally get K syndrome for plot reasons, but there won't be rules for it; it will happen "because the DM said so".

    More generally, all expendable class features can be expected to fully recover on a time period not longer than "between missions."

    (Which isn't to say K syndrome might not be a key gameplay element in a poorly-designed game, of course.)

    57:

    Given official hostility to cults not of the PM, it's a safe guess that any Call Of Cthulhu/Delta Green material still on the market will be there as a poison-pill for the overly enthusiastic/curious.

    58:

    Well, D&D has often crafted worlds to expand into non-traditional genres like horror (Ravenloft) space opera (Spelljammer) and dystopia (Dark Sun).

    So they'd probably start with a CNG-style realm... Carcossa, maybe, and sculpt things around the new status quo.

    Which means bureaucracy & corporate structures.

    This suggests things like "Executive Exorcist" (as opposed to Executive Assistant), or "Geisic Engineer" for spellcasters. A Cultist class is almost imperative for Cleric-style hijinks. And I could easily see "Post-Human Combatant" being a Fighter prestige class, especially for those who aren't much into roleplaying. :D

    Of course, this assumes that WOTC didn't get subsumed by the Black Chamber, who are using the latest edition to smooth the way to summon the Big Guy.

    59:

    It's worth saying that people outside the Anglosphere also play RPGs. Recent stuff out of Finland in particular has been very impressive, at least to me.

    60:

    The Black Chamber doesn't want a TTRPG to summon Big Sir - too much scope for individual initiative, too many rules and therefore too slow a takeup.

    You want something like Magic: The Gathering, a collectible card game.

    • The publisher lays out the rules and the setting in advance. So the information it generates is well known in advance and limited in scope.
    • The number of options is relatively small and easy to manipulate.
    • Because the publisher understands the rules, the hard work has already been done.
    • If you use cards, then you can distribute images at your own discretion.

    Bonus: There is an incentive for consumers to Collect The Set.

    If you do it carefully, then you're effectively providing computational macros to a self-selecting vulnerable population.

    61:

    You do not know what mention of Parsons brought as a chain of thought.

    Charlie... you realize that some of the traditional Magick traditions of the UK haven't been utilized in the laundryverse.

    Here's my paying for a drink for you if none of them got together to save Great Britain (cf the Witches of the UK in the real world doing their best to actually do weather working during the Battle of Britain).

    And one of them would succeed in channeling the Great Beast himself: if the PM is Big Brother... then a Real Goldstein is Aleister Crowley.

    He can't lead a revolt to save the world?

    62:

    Sorry, as a real world leftist, your rules for community organizer come across as written from a right-wing point of view.

    63:

    Ooooh.

    Networked CCG.

    Runs on phones.

    64:

    You could use the phone and the phone owner as components of a detection system, by comparing visual outputs - if X shows up in one system (eyesight) but not the other (camera), then that's a clear sign of Interesting Activity.

    Camera recognition would vary witrh software, so you'd be able to run a set of searches by cycling the software through various configs.

    Once you were able to distinguish targets then you'd have a platform to run SCORPION STARE through.

    65:

    Err, MtG is people, err, turing complete. Bad idea in the Laundryverse.

    On another note, could you give some examples of the Finnish RPGs?

    66:

    I was thinking particularly of Travellers On A Red Road.

    67:

    MTG may be, but other games needn't be.

    68:

    Err, I got recitations of Crowley's curses in my mailbox when I was late (again) for one of my roleplaying groups back in 2002 to 2004.

    Looking back, the guys in my group might have homebrewed a scenario from an official RPG to terminate the Crawling Chaos with prejudice, because they can and it's fun.

    And Gnarly wouldn't mind, because we were somewhat entertaining.

    Speaking about homebrewed scenarios, I have a feeling they are going to be the new "recreated his school with a level editor in Doom/Quake"...

    69:

    Loop and Epigram are two programming languagrs said not to be turing complete.

    Problem is, accidental turing completeness is not that uncommon.

    70:

    When things get really ratty, people tend to head for comforting safe tales from youth. So in an era of tzompantli, I rather suspect that the UK Gold style of programming will leap up in popularity; 1970s/80s sitcoms like “The Good Life” / “To the Manor Born”. Basically, anything featuring Penelope Keith or Felicity Kendal. “Midsomer Murders” might not make the cut - too many deaths in a time of dying.

    The New Management might of course be dropping heavy hints to broadcasters as to what programming is deemed “more suitable” in troublesome times. Can’t see “Secret Army” or “Allo, Allo” getting a repeat, and “V for Vendetta” is right out.

    Games might well follow a similar pattern. The non-subversive majority using comforting tropes like Narnia (ooooh, CS Lewis as an early Laundry operator, you could have fun with that).

    I can’t help but think of the humour meme: “Chaotic Stupid is not an alignment”. Under the new rules, who knows? “Lawful Psychopath”, “Neutral Coward”?

    Anyway, what of the careful resistant? The RPG might well become a planning tool for acts of subversion: it’s hard for security forces to take gamers seriously, few will look past “oooh, graph paper and dice” to see an activist cell repeatedly rehearsing a target activity, using dice to exercise the various “what-ifs” and develop their responses / refine their plan...

    71:

    Thnx. Still looking for a new group, so...

    72:

    I foresee an Archers RPG.

    73:

    So mechanically, in an RPG were player characters typically serve the establishment, the roles of who is the monster/enemy and who is your friend are now reversed, obviously. For systems that use an alignment grid (sigh), this makes the paladin and other exclusively Good classes that usually fit into the "preserve the status quo" corner pretty much impossible to play.

    I had ran D&D campaigns where players were Lawful Evil (or within one deviation), and doing essentially what you described.

    74:

    Shadowrun would have a Call of Cthulhu crossover book.

    We don't need CNG for that one, there's probably others but Dark Conspiracy was the one I had fun playing - depending on the GM/players the tech isn't as widespread as Shadowrun, and the unspeakable horrors may be humans, aliens or incomprehensible multi-dimensional beings who want to eat Seattle for unknowable reasons.

    The setting is closer to north american laundryverse than NM though, so doesn't meet OGH's original question.

    75:

    Here's a weird thought: what if enough people were doing a joint ritual willing the world to be back to "normal"...?

    76:

    Racists adopt D&D. Initially racist geeks, then expanding into the wider community. Campaigns start to focus on defeating other races, killing the differently abled (they say some of them eat souls), and human supremacy. H.P. Lovecraft, David Brin, and J.R.R. Tolkien become popular, but the aspects that are emphasized are a bit different from what we would emphasize.

    Card-based games start to have a role similar to plane spotter cards from WWII.

    A popular cinematic universe is developed, which gets several key points wrong for the sake of human pride. Fans realize just how wrong it is shortly before their gruesome deaths.

    Some vanilla racism is mixed into all of this.

    77:

    That's weird. When I used to dungeon, every party was mixed race.

    Well, except for the one idiot 16 yr old in a group once....

    78:

    As for even more racist RPGs, it has been done, before clicking on the following link, keep the brain bleach ready.

    1d4chan on Racial Holy War, the game

    Mods, feel free to delete, in penance I'll enlist as an arcoflagellant and host a few sessions of FATAL, 1st edition...

    79:

    I. Read. That. Review. Out loud, to my SO and one of her daughters (who roloplay), and they were dying laughing.

    Thanks for the link. We needed some amusement, and that's an amazing shredding.

    80:

    I agree with those who say that dice and tables and calculations are going to be risky, and think there will be an evolutionary pressure away from some forms of that.

    Given a world increasingly resembling, even by rumour and gossip, some of the more horror-themed games, I wouldn't be surprised to see a resurgence of both directly-inspired games (like the love of killing zombies in the USA), and of escape/backlash games (Animal Crossing, for example).

    For those reasons there might be an increased focus on simpler strategy games rather than calculation-based ones (viz, Catan/ Evolution/Save The Takahe).

    I question the continued existence of Folding@Home* and wonder whether there will be a general ban on certain types of software - it will definitely make malware more of a risk (the gap between "major company loses entire network" and "eldritch horrors eat entire company" is important). So any kind of computer-based gaming will be risky. Sadly for my playing Path of Exile.

    • anything that performs extensive calculations on random-looking data. You could accidentally discover an exciting combination.
    81:

    All right, let’s develop this from first principles.

    D&D is played for escapism, for the sense of agency, and for novelty.

    In a world where magic is real, the novelty side is diminished, although not entirely, as there are many different ways to do magic in RPGs.

    But this isn’t all. In the Laundry Universe, where the world is becoming increasingly Lovecraftian, the need for escapism and for the sense of agency needs to be accordingly dialed up. If in the real world people are acutely aware of how they are either utterly insignificant dust or, in worse cases, playthings for forces which are beyond their control and comprehension, then the game must be everything the world isn’t. The characters have control over their lives, they use their intellect to make themselves stronger, and use their powers to make the world better.

    And to gain powers the characters don’t use magic, because magic symbolizes the unknown and incomprehensible. They use human technology.

    This neatly brings us to the other side of Charlie’s oeuvre.

    The premise of the game system is a kind of gritty technological cornucopianism. Think singularity tropes mixed with cyberpunk tropes, and steeped in the optimism of Eliezer Yudkowski. You start as an augmented human/cyborg, and progress towards a god-like electronic being. A combination of Shadowrun, Exalted, Deus Ex, Girl Genius and The Rapture for Nerds.

    The settings may vary, but none of them are grimdark. In some variations your BBEGs could still be Lovecraftian horrors, but the approach to fighting them is decidedly un-Lovecraftian. When enemies afflict Sanity rolls on your character, the solution is not to escape into ignorance, like in CoC, but to upgrade your mind until you are no longer phased by them.

    82:

    I was checking some lists for video game publishers, and yes, of the high end publishers some have their headquarters in the UK. The list of defunct and sold publishers is many times that big, but thats just capitalism... Anywho, tariffs were a stupid idea, I admit. I didn't really think that one through. But Co-opting the games industry to push your agenda as the NM makes sense. It may not even be necessary to influence the people making the creative decision directly: a strategically placed recurring nightmare here, the right idea planted into their own media consumption... Foreign media that does not fit the NM's agenda will probably just be banned.

    I think the games industry, and what people will play, will be part of a greater societal shift: With an Elder God at the helm, their metaphysical tentacles will reach the lives of the public, changing thoughts, ideas, and dreams. What drives the people will not change, e.g., they will still want to escape their dreadful tedium of an 9-5 office drag, and sit down with people they actually like, and engage in some escapist fantasy or mock-battle with clear rules that they may actually win. The subject matter and the themes will change, as they always have, but the underlying need drive will not.

    83:

    I foresee an Archers RPG.

    The horror, the horror...

    84:

    I have some problems with quite a few comments predominantly noting escapism in RPGs.

    Well, escapism, in the sense of doing it to escape from everyday life and relax is there, but I see no difference to e. g. soccer fans, if anything, soccer fans are less conbected to the social realities that make part a good session. In fact, even most most fantasy settings incorporate rivalry between social groups, e. g. different religion, yes, it's only lip service to reality, still...

    In some players, the line between game and reality gets somewhat blurry, but again, the same is true for quite a few sport fans.

    And don't get me started on other imaginary social endeavours, e. g. celebrity news or religions, for the latter one, I single out "talk a lot, organize nothing" politics and MBA level economics.

    85:

    I foresee an Archers RPG.

    The players are already in one. They are the livestock.

    86:

    Someone else who's faced this question was Alan Moore, when creating the world for his excellent Watchmen comics (subsequently an average film and a brilliant TV show). In that world, superheroes have existed since the 1940s; one with unlimited, godlike powers, and numerous others without powers, just costumed vigilantes with gimmicks and talented hand-to-hand. Moore decided that in such a world, superhero comics would be too 'real', so instead pirate comics are all the rage. This spans the full spectrum, too - there are adventure pirate comics, romance pirate comics, and horror pirate comics (of which one, Tales of the Black Freighter is reproduced as a comic-within-a-comic).

    87:
    More to the point though, fantasy RPGs will reflect an outdated view of magic in the same way as Golden Age sci-fi reflects an outdated view of space travel.[...]

    This is a great point. What happened to space sci-fi in the 50s-70s, when the public learned more about space travel, zero-gravity, and other planets? What did that do to the culture? That, turned up to 11, is a possible answer.

    88:

    I agree with others that role-playing games, moreso that other fiction, tend to be about escapism. Current popular RPGs, to me, represent several specific reactions to the real world.

    Where reality is filled with shades of grey, RPGs have simple good-vs-evil morality. The bad guys are obvious (or nefariously hidden!) and "there is no right answer" is rare. This would be reversed in the Laundryverse, where evil is clear and present everywhere. Players might prefer to play stories where moral questions are balanced but low-stakes, rather than lopsided and life-or-death.

    The insignificance of individuals in the face of greater forces in our world has filled our fiction with heroes, whose individual choices carry huge weight thanks to their tremendous abilities. What if one person really could 'fix' criminality or climate change? This could go either way in the Laundryverse; actually-existing-superheroes might disabuse people of the positives of enormous individual power, leading to RPGs that emphasise collective action and banding together - or the very visible enormous world-threatening forces that the humans cannot affect could inspire even greater power levels in fiction, with player characters destroying planets and creating planes of existence on a routine basis.

    Violence and death, relatively absent from modern Western societies, is a default problem-solving technique in the vast majority of RPGs. This is unlikely to be as welcome if the players know people who've ended up on a tzompantli. Expect to play with non-lethal and possibly non-violent problem-solving taking the fore, and player death in particular mostly excised.

    In short - yeah, Animal Crossing.

    89:

    My table is not about escapism. It's about exploring together a shared dreamworld and in doing so, developing the characters dwelling inside of us wanting to come out. Demons are keyed to particular aspects of my personality and when I act them out I give them life so I can interact with them and negotiate better terms of co-living. And my players are encouraged to play characters that are themselves but in ways that bring forward personality traits they want to explore. Thus the game is a means to cavort with local entities and create special-purpose egos that help players and DM alike to navigate social spaces better. If I was playing a game like that in the Laundryverse, I would heavily ward the game room so that our ceremonies don't become an invitation for the eaters to dine on us.

    90:

    Well, yes, why do you think that such things are popular?

    While some people will undoubtedly want to escape reality entirely, a higher proportion merely want an environment in which they have the control they are lacking in their everyday lives. And, for most people, that includes simplicity, because being faced with a problem to complicated to get their heads around makes them feel that they are not in control. This is a very well-known psychological and sociological effect.

    There have been plenty of games that are 'realistic' as well as 'fantastic' but, as far as I know, ALL successful ones have had the characteristics of giving the player control and using a simpler world. The reason that fantasy is commonly used is because it makes this simpler, as much as anything.

    In the world of the New Management, I am pretty sure that many (perhaps) most people would be looking for such things at least as strongly as they do today.

    91:

    Yes, there is (or was) a Doctor Who RPG: IIRC back when BBC Wales was rebooting Who a decade ago a certain games company I was dealing with snapped up the rights for a mere £15,000 advance plus royalties. TTRPG media rights are dirt cheap unless you're dealing with a major media franchise (Star Trek, Star Wars, Marvel/DC Comics).

    92:

    citizens of a post CASE NIGHTMARE GREEN world would gravitate toward a world without any of that

    So, a giant revival for Traveler! (Except classic Traveler was absolutely not a game where you could go full murder hobo and expect to survive your first combat, so I'm guessing there'd be a bunch of updates to make it workable for the nuke-em-till-they-glow-then-shoot-em-in-the-dark demographic.)

    93:

    Oneiromantic Suppression Officer: Mass sending interception, moderation and management. Strong affinity with Cats and Microsoft Excel a must, PRINCE2 Practioner qualification advantageous.

    Xenoveterinarian: Appropriate "feeder" qualification from appropriate learning bodies required. Spare limbs and stored bodily fluids recommended.

    Miscegenation Management Czar (Coasts and Waterways): Develop and implement a comprehensive strategy in coordination with the emergency services, armed forces and ocean-based stakeholders, to manage genetic intermix in line with available care resources and stakeholder expectations.

    94:

    Editorializing aside

    If you've been paying attention you'll have noticed that I haven't blogged about Black Lives Matter (spoiler: I emphatically think they do), rampant police brutality on display, pushing statues of slavers into canals (good riddance!), or other current events. They're simply moving too fast to track and I don't want to invite a flame war or have to go full time wielding the ban hammer.

    From my immediate perspective, what seems to be happening is what William Burroughs called a Naked Lunch moment: the instant of frozen time where what's on the end of your fork becomes impossible to ignore, along with the slaughterhouse processes that led to it being impaled there. And it has made certain fictional tropes instantly questionable -- anything to do with the American model of policing that takes the conventional narrative of police as public protectors at face value, for example.

    Opinion poll numbers show a shift in attitudes in the US that is jaw-dropping in its magnitude and speed. His misreading of the mood is probably going to cost Donald Trump the election in November: tear gassing his way into a church he wasn't a congregant of to pose with a bible is never a good look. The hardcore white supremacists and neo-nazis aren't going to shift, but what's happening to the non-immoral majority is another matter.

    I am currently 75,000 words into the first draft of a sequel to October's release (Dead Lies Dreaming) and going really slowly, because this is not a great time to be trying to front-run dystopian reality in fiction. Especially for a book that can't be published before October 2021.

    As it is, I've just come out of a pause-and-re-evaluate cycle almost as bad as the one that forced the rewrite of The Delirium Brief, when British politics fell off a cliff overnight in the middle of 2016.

    (Luckily for me in light of current events, the cop protagonist of Dead Lies Dreaming and sequel is probably still plausibly a sympathetic character. She's an ex-cop who believes fiercely in the Peelian principles -- community policing -- and got railroaded out of the Met as an indirect result. Law and Order under the New Management is already a blatant parody of worst police brutality and violence: it'll take very little tweaking to make it directly relevant. I'm not 100% certain yet, but I think these books are going to survive post-publication scrutiny in the post-George Floyd/Black Lives Matter era.)

    But anyway: this is not an invitation to discuss Black Lives Matter; rather it's an explanation of why I'm examining current events from a different angle via the D&D speculation. Just as CASE NIGHTMARE GREEN puts D&D and TTRPGs into a new frame, so too does BLM put any crime-caper plot line into a different light, and unfortunately I started writing a trilogy about supervillains and law enforcement exactly as Defund the Police stopped looking like a fringe, crank argument and acquired urgency.

    95:

    Community Activist (aka a 'Rabble Rouser')

    On the one hand: that's a plausible, well-developed character class. Shame that as Whitroth notes, it looks like it's a far-right/US conservative parody of a left-wing activist. Not cool.

    Also: I absolutely hate it, with a fiery passion. (Hint: individuals in this character class should be nicknamed "mind rapists".)

    96:

    They'll be playing RPGs about pandemics?

    97:

    The American model of policing Which always was brutal, except it seems to have actually got worse, significantly so, in recent years - Trump, I presume? Opinion poll numbers show a shift in attitudes in the US that is jaw-dropping in its magnitude and speed. As always, when the spring under the vast heap actually gets just that tiny bit bigger, & suddenly, the whole thing slides into oblivion at frightening speed [ And, yes that horrifying metaphor was deliberate, because, as a side-effect innocent people will get hurt - see France 1792 or Russian 1918-19, or Iran post 1979. ]

    Rabble rouser How many are right-wing Agents Provacateurds I wonder? ( Oops, that was a mistyp - but I think I'll leave it! ) All the members of the supposed terrorist cell were cops of one sort or another, yes? Though I know the real thing does exist, but they are usually such complete idiots [ See "Extinction Rebellion" for an example ] as to not be worth bothering with. Unlike, say Der Rote Armee Faction in the BRD during the late 1960's

    99:
    You want something like Magic: The Gathering, a collectible card game. - The publisher lays out the rules and the setting in advance. So the information it generates is well known in advance and limited in scope. - The number of options is relatively small and easy to manipulate. - Because the publisher understands the rules, the hard work has already been done.

    I am not sure picking a Turing-complete computational stratum as an example of "the information it generates is well known in advance and limited in scope". I am also pretty sure that WotC had no idea they had accidentally a Turing tarpit. An while the number of options may be small, there's basically infinite combinability, telescoping the amount of information to be considered considerably.

    I'll leave implementing (and/or testing) the computation of the Ackermann function in M:TG to the hardier than me.

    100:

    You said later "Law and Order under the New Management is already a blatant parody of worst police brutality and violence:"

    Hmm. One of the classic methods used by such governments is to daemonise their enemies and encourage the 'right sort of' extremism, tribalism and hatred, often using such fiction. I remember the "boy's magazines", even though I encountered only the tail end of them, and many of them had tacit government support - possibly even covert support. I would expect the New Management to keep a VERY close eye on fiction and RPGs that involve organised conflict, ensure that it was only of the 'the right sort'. They would also encourage the "nuke 'em all" games where the protagonists were heroes of the New Management fighting verminous, evil etc. enemies (i.e. any other management, and anyone inside who was not a whole-hearted supporter). Yes, 1984 redux, but Orwell was writing about what he knew.

    So I would expect other types of RPGs to tread very carefully around that, and to avoid such forms of conflict. It's too easy to be misjudged as promoting dissent, and then ....

    101:

    "Trump, I presume?"

    I think it's a combination of things. Certainly the Trump administration killed some Obama-era programs meant to help the Federal government intervene with the really bad police departments. But there are other things as well, including the militarization of police, the current preference (among U.S. cops at least) for gaining complete and immediate control and compliance instead of de-escalating, the upcoming end of the war on drugs and the current distaste for the war on whores, but rising gigantically over all this is the capacity, on the part of the average citizen, to take high-quality video and audio of what the police are doing. This is game-changing, and a cellphone can upload the video as it's being shot, which is huge.

    Attached to all this is the problem that cops haven't adjusted to the idea that there are cameras everywhere, and thus whatever they do will be subject to public evaluation.

    102:

    Well, yes, and "having a feeling of being in control" also makes an activity reinforcing.

    But "simplified scenario" is not just a description for an escapistic scenario, it's also a description for a training scenario. And there is also the metagame, e.g. the interaction in the group.

    Ok, I go back to my year 2KX self quite a lot lately, namely to see some failure modes I encounter again, to reconnect to old friends etc. Saying I was good at compartmentalization would not be true, but, well, let's not go into details this time.

    When we decided to start a modified Runequest session in 2001, it was not to escape reality. At least I was doing plenty of that at the time, sitting in my room, listening to music and building stories in my head.

    I was living in a dorm with solitary appartments and bad traffic connections, and at some point connected with some of my neighbours. There where some subgroups, and with one, well, we were already doing movie evenings (guess where I watched Fight Club, and I still wonder why my brother doesn't see the parallels between Tyler Durden and the Italian fascist futurists, but I digress), we did LAN parties and some board games, e.g. Catan (which quite a few German boardgamers hate with a passion, but again, I digress).

    So when one guy who was into Roman and Byzantine history proposed homebrewing a Medieval scenario, we thought it might be fun, and it was, even if we quickly realized the GM was even more lacking in social skills than me. And it might have cushioned off somewhat the mixture of depression, social withdrawl, writer's block and burnout I was experiencing at the time.

    As for the alternative, well, at least some of us would have played Return to Castle Wolfenstein or Command&Conquer or StarCraft alone.

    103:

    Surely, in the post-new management Laundryverse, D&D would be highly illegal? Both from a risk of accidental magic, and a censorship point of view. This would make the hardcore who continue pretty odd characters in their own right, not to mention buying their stuff from hard nuts on the black market.

    104:

    The American model of policing Which always was brutal, except it seems to have actually got worse, significantly so, in recent years - Trump, I presume?

    Nope, went all the way back to Nixon: Trump merely accelerated it.

    Nixon kicked off the war on drugs specifically so the cops would have an excuse to crack down on hippies, young people, and BAME communities. (It was a reboot of a 1930s era program to maintain Jobs For The Good Ole Boys who'd just had their Prohibition gravy train derailed.)

    Reagan -- nobody's idea of a civil rights activist -- accelerated it. He also pushed "care in the community" as a solution to horror stories about psychiatric hospitals, which resulted in shoveling a lot of folks with mental illnesses out onto the street, where they couldn't support themselves and ended up in prison. (Not a coincidence: most people with schizophrenia smoke, and many use cannabis because it is a self-administered palliative: it shuts the internal narrative down. So war on drugs = war on the mentally ill, too.) GHWB continued, then Clinton triangulated on the more right-wing congress elected in 1994 and accelerated it.

    Meanwhile the quiet news was that violent crime in the USA was falling -- the fall correlated perfectly, accounting for a 15-20 year delay, with measures to get lead out of petrol and paint and products people were routinely exposed to. (Chronic low level lead poisoning causes diminished intelligence, diminished impose control, and emotional volatility -- all things that feed into violent crime.)

    GWB kept pushing the same levers, but added terrorism as a new pretext to feed money to the new police-prison-industrial complex that was supplanting the old military-industrial complex (after the defense spending cuts of the early 90s).

    Note that prison labour is a valuable source of revenue for the private prisons industry, and putting cops in (American) schools provides a steady stream of new slaves inmates.

    It costs more to keep a prisoner in a maximum security prison than to send a student to Harvard. Which is the whole point, because both those institutions are private sector money-making organizations that farm a crop of human lives.

    105:

    Err, for some reasons not to be named I went into morphogenetic fields lately and ended up in an interview of Terrence McKenna by Horgan. Bribgs back nemories of other parts of me at the time, BTW.

    So, if computers are still legal, and people feed the data of metahuman activities into them, they will see exponential growth, and they can extrapolate the data. And thus rediscover CNG.

    (for context, McKenna was not just into tryptamines, but also into the computational singularity, and his "timewave hypothesis" was one factor in the 2012 craze; Horgan thinks he was just jesting with it, though)

    106:

    Oh, and sorry for the typos, I'm not under the influence, I just don't like smartphone keyboards...

    107:

    Surely, in the post-new management Laundryverse, D&D would be highly illegal?

    It takes a while for primary legislation to be introduced and implemented. In particular, the UK in 2014 (when the New Management came to power) didn't have a framework for institutional censorship of written material -- indeed, it was an EU member with mandatory compliance with the ECHR.

    Also, PDFs of D&D rules are a widespread thing. So at this point the cat's very much out of the bag.

    The one hopelessly unrealistic characteristic of the New Management is that, however malignant it might be, it isn't stupid (His Dark Majesty has a drastic way of showing his displeasure at displays of stupidity among his servants -- the current British cabinet would be adorning spikes at Tyburn for their handling of COVID19).

    So their response would most likely be subtle: sponsoring selected games developers to distribute new products widely online in "free" beta-test versions for play-testing, subsidizing development, and supplying a list of tropes to be discouraged -- "put this in your game and oh dear, your nice government grant goes away". With the hope that the "free" produce would drive more expensive (and ideologically suspect) offerings out of the marketplace.

    108:

    Since we're doing an excursion on the USian situation, I somewhat wonder about Floyd's tox results.

    [ DELETED BY MODERATOR because we are NOT on an excursion into the US situation -- at least, not prior to comment 300. ]

    110:

    Meanwhile the quiet news was that violent crime in the USA was falling

    I'm not sure it's as simple as lead-free petrol - it correlates well with a lot of other things too. (I'm put in mind of the Pastafarian correlation between pirates and global warming.) Most notably, it also correlates with legal access to birth control and a general reduction in birthrate when that kicked in. If you have fewer kids and you actually want those kids, your quality of parenting is going to be way better.

    As you say though, an irony of the last 20-30 years is that we're more afraid of violence on the streets at a time when violence on the streets has never been lower.

    111:

    "As you say though, an irony of the last 20-30 years is that we're more afraid of violence on the streets at a time when violence on the streets has never been lower."

    I believe it is CNN and other real time news networks. They need to keep people glued to the TV set, so anything gory is GOOD to play in an infinite loop.

    112:

    People have looked fairly closely at this; the evidence is that going to lead-free petrol was the main single factor in the drop. Variations in social deprivation (by FAR the next most important factor) have confused the data, but not enough to hide that.

    113:
    The Amulet of Yendor will transpire to be not as innocuous and desirable as a lot of people have thought and hard to get your hands on for A Very Good Reason.

    "This MacGuffin is placed at the bottom of a pit, the descent into which was made to be impossibly, lethally difficult, and you did not get the clue?"

    114:

    As Charlie said, Nixon started that dog-whistle. However, a) a Black man being elected President cranked the racists up to 11 on a scale of 10, and b) the Hairball actively encouraged them to come out from under their rocks ("good people on both sides").

    115:

    "PDF's"? Sorry, but if I go to my ancient God kit, I have photocopies" of all three *original" D&D books. My SO has *legal copies.

    Oh, and btw - it struck me that most folks here have been talking about running in what we used to call pregenerated modules. Back in the day, the dungeon you went into followed the DM spending days or week or months inventing one, like the one I did, or either of my old buddies did.

    Trust me, mine are a lot more fun, and stranger, than the dungeons you ran in....

    116:

    Btw, between only eventually falling asleep last night, and waking up this morning, I realized that under NM, I'm going to be unbelievably rich.

    All of you talking about the escapist games like 'meetings and paperwork"....

    In the 1632 universe, there's Dr. Gribbleflotz, who went to Grantville, and came up with centuries of odd ideas (photgraph your aura, ma'am?). He is, however, amazingly rich, because he also found a jackpot, and manufactures (his company does) the little blue pills.

    Aspirin.

    So, I hereby apply for a patent/copyright/trademark in the Laundryverse. There are millions, no, billions of people terrified of what's happened, and can't get to sleep every night, or keep waking up. I invented a small artifact, useable 6 or 7 times before needing to be recharged. It only affects a small area, meaning the user, and anyone next to them: the SilverDragon's Sleep Spell Artefact. Get at least a solid four or more hours sleep any night, works immediately, and you won't wake up thinking you heard something.

    Then, I'll invest money in setting up a training program (you or your company pays), with a HUUUUGE job market: insurance company protection spell adjuster, how protected you are from spells and monsters depends on how good your insurance is, re-done every payment (meaning six months or once a year).

    Told you I'm about to be rich.

    117:

    Charlie, one more thing - a question. Folks running games, or clerics in existing games: what will the NM do, if they're doing rituals, etc, for NON-Lovecraftian deities (Odin, Isis, the Morrigan, etc)?

    118:

    If you want to know what’s wrong with policing in the U.S., read this very interesting story of the office fired for not shooting a suicidal suspect. Note some interesting things as you’re reading. First of all, note the poor communication by all involved, particularly the police dispatcher. Note the poor job done of evaluating the shooting; neither the captain in charge nor the police chief of the (small) 35-member department involved ever questioned or formally interviewed the officer who didn’t shoot. Note the instant rejection, by other cops, of the officer who didn’t shoot the suspect. Note the clumsy attempts at a coverup…

    https://features.propublica.org/weirton/police-shooting-lethal-force-cop-fired-west-virginia/

    119:

    He also pushed "care in the community" as a solution to horror stories about psychiatric hospitals, which resulted in shoveling a lot of folks with mental illnesses out onto the street, where they couldn't support themselves and ended up in prison.

    Actually on that issue the left was the most active in closing down the evil mental institutions. But while lawsuits can close such places, lawsuits don't pass legislation to replace them. So in the name of "fixing" the issue we just dumped them all on the streets.

    It was a spectacular display of unrealistic thinking about how the world of politics would work.

    I was in my late 20s / early 30s at the time and when I asked what would replace the institutions I kept being told community solutions. But no money was being allocated. A when a bit of money was there amazingly when the discussion started about converting a suburban home to a place for 5 to 10 mentally ill people to live "normal" lives the torches and pitchforks would come out by the impacted neighbors.

    120:

    Mods, go ahead and kill my post at 118 if necessary. My apologies, I posted first and caught-up later.

    121:

    Charlie You are reinforcing what I was suggesting ... It was always (?) bad, but DT has made it much worse. Thanks for the insight about arsehole Noxon, though.

    whitroth A merely pale-brown man being elected Pres drove the New_Confederate nitters into voerdrive ...

    Troutwaxer That's really horrible. Here, & in the W European countries, he'd get a commendation.

    122:

    But you expected Raygun to spend FEDERAL TAX DOLLARS (bow, please) on wasteful things like that, when he was busy shoveling money into the military-industrial complex?

    The FIRST TIME IN MY LIFE that I ever saw a homeless person was somewhere between 1979 and 1981.

    123:

    Folks running games, or clerics in existing games: what will the NM do, if they're doing rituals, etc, for NON-Lovecraftian deities (Odin, Isis, the Morrigan, etc)?

    Obviously in the Laundryverse there are three types of god that might occur in a D&D game:

  • Can't exist. (Incompatible with the laws of nature the Laundryverse runs on.)

  • Don't exist.

  • Do exist.

  • The New Management is not stupid; the NM understands the concept "fiction". So the NM couldn't care less about Type 1. And it is less concerned with Type 3, because a campaign with 2-7 participants (including the GM) is unlikely to concentrate enough mana to invoke a Type 3 manifestation, and if the players knew it was even remotely a possibility they'd burn their rulebooks because it's a horrible way to die and groups of people don't generally get together to commit suicide for fun and recreation.

    The NM's main concern is therefore with Type 2 entities, which are not known to exist but also not known to be impossible.

    ... And I can't say anything more on that particular topic until I've written "A Conventional Boy" which has been on the do-to list for about five years (it's Derek the DM's origin story).

    124:

    Replying to self @ 97 & also Charlie Opinion poll numbers show a shift in attitudes in the US that is jaw-dropping in its magnitude and speed. Which will mean less than nothing if DT succeds in stealing this year's election. His minions are busting guts & straining muscles to rig the vote, by every just-about-legal means possible, as far as I can see - yes? What happens if it s "close" as a result, &/or if the R's still have a majority in the Senate? And don't forget the now-rigged Supreme Court. Or will the tsunami/landslide overwhelm them as well?

    Charlie? US residents?

    p.s. whitroth The first time I saw any numbers of homeless-on-the-street was in the late Thatcher years ....

    125:

    No. There was this expectation that the states (who ran the evil institutions) would allocate more money to deal with community solutions.

    Heck here in NC we are still in the middle of this fight. It was going on when I moved here 30 years ago and still is.

    As to homeless, there is a huge pile of reasons for this issue. Mental illness being a major one. Another being you can't be poor and live in a shack. Those are now illegal. Pick a side on that one. I can argue either side myself. As long as we limit the discussion to just that. Housing. Which is shouldn't be but is.

    PS: Reagan's military spending was in line with Carter's plans. Carter just didn't brag about it.

    126:

    So in the name of "fixing" the issue we just dumped them all on the streets.

    Note that the first true modern antipsychotic meds came along in the early 1960s. So the thinking was probably that "this is curable now, why are we institutionalizing these people when they can just take their prescription and go back to being productive members of society?"

    Trouble is, first-gen antipsychotics had horrible side-effects. (For values of "horrible" that mimicked the symptoms of Parkinson's Disease.) Also, prescription drugs and medical treatment aren't free in the USA. So you got a toxic brew of patients coming off their meds because (a) they didn't like the side-effects and (b) they couldn't afford them because (c) they couldn't hold down a job with medical benefits if they kept coming off their meds but (d) if they were on their meds they were basket cases.

    (The UK got the same meds around the same time but also had the NHS and a working social security system and public housing. Upshot: it was still a problem -- especially in the 1980s after Thatcher and her heirs tried to gut the unemployment system -- but much less of a problem.)

    127:

    Which will mean less than nothing if DT succeds in stealing this year's election.

    Latest polls I've seen show Trump trailing Biden by 16%.

    Yes, he can steal an election if it's close, and US presidential elections are usually close. But it'll be next to impossible to steal a landslide. The most he could do would be to declare a state of emergency and try to cancel or postpone the election entirely ... but the Military looked that one in the eye last week (handing out live ammo to units facing off against unarmed demonstrators) and blinked.

    If he doesn't have the Joint Chiefs on his side he probably can't make a coup stick. And he doesn't, and the numbers have got him in an emotional meltdown, and the further into meltdown he goes, the lower his chances of winning.

    128:

    CONFESSION TIME:

    So I, uh, just mail-ordered a dead-tree set of the D&D 5e rule books, to shelve alongside my original AD&D books and hopefully Do Something with.

    This is a business expanse: they'll come in handy when I write "A Conventional Boy", which is set in 2010 and therefore immune to COVID19 or Brexit or New Management fuck-uppery.

    Now I just have to find a D&D campaign running on Zoom that can ease a player back in after about 37 years away.

    129:

    Which will mean less than nothing if DT succeds in stealing this year's election.

    US residents?

    Stealing an election is not the same as refusing to accept the results. That is where it can get very ugly. As some have said, what if Trump says it was rigged and he will not leave? I suspect that as soon as Biden (if the winner by the process) is sworn in, the Secret Service will grab Trump by the arm pits, put him in a van, drive him past the demonstrators to his "home". By law he gets SS protection but that doesn't extend to staying in the WH.

    As to stealing I expect the overall results to be valid. But have concerns about Georgia and Wisconsin. I can see their legislatures legislating an electoral college vote if it's close and if they make the difference. Then things would get very ugly very quickly. Most of the other legislatures of likely close states don't seem to be that arrogant.

    130:

    My son runs a weekly game. Or did. I'm not sure what he's doing with it just now. I can ask him what's up with Zoom D&D these days.

    131:

    I am under the impression that Raygun's was higher than Carter's. Note that I was NOT happy with Carter's military increases, and voted Anderson (3rd party). Had I but known, I would have voted for Carter.

    132:

    He's melting down now. His "lawyers" send a Cease and Desist letter... to CNN.

    I'm not making this up.

    For publishing a poll showing him behind Biden by 14%.

    CNN, having serious money, and its own staff of lawyers, told him his letter had no merit, and FUCK OFF.

    133:

    I am puzzled. That implies that a ritual couldn't open a channel to, say, the Sleeper in the Pyramid - not a full invokation, obviously, but the original channels to it must have been opened SOMEHOW.

    And I would have thought that the New Management would have had a real down on such things, just as most gummints in my lifetime (especially during the cold wars) have had a real down on agents of what they feel are hostile states. My understanding of the Labyrinth Index is that there was an ongoing cold war between Himself in the UK and It in the USA.

    134:

    Getting the Joint Chiefs on his side for a coup, esp. noting the new Black general of the AF, approaches 'not a fucking chance". The Marines, for one, will probably start talking about Gen Chesty Puller (in the thirties, some ultrawealthy tried to talk to him about a coupe against FDR: he went and testified to Congress about it).

    Remember, it was just last week that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs sending out the official memo reminding the entire US military that the Oath of Office is to the Constitution.

    135:

    Not Chesty Puller. It was Smedley Butler.

    136:

    Sounds like characters from "I thawt I thaw a puty that" flick.

    137:

    Hey Charlie, what's the current status on the Sleeper in the Pyramid. Is it out of the running in the quest for Earthly power, or was the death of Schiller merely a setback?

    138:

    I was thinking more Abbott and Costello... "Coups on First?"

    139:

    I sit, and type, corrected. Thanks. The point, however, stands - neither of them were nice people. but the Oath meant something.

    140:

    Nah, Abbott and Costello were nice guys. This crew is like a vile version of the Three Stooges.

    141:

    There should be a throw away line that makes it obvious they are role playing THIS pandemic specifically, then the focus shifts and we hear no more of it.

    142:

    sorry for the typos Not your fault. :-) Typos and other mistakes are a big thing these days, particularly in US politics. I'll try to map that into a new DnD entity type today.

    @Charlie Stross 123: And I can't say anything more on that particular topic until I've written "A Conventional Boy" Does Derek Know what he is? Was unclear whether he knew the last we saw of him in published work. (Not clear to me either, to be ... clear.)

    143:

    David L I suspect that as soon as Biden (if the winner by the process) is sworn in ... And THERE is your problem. The elcetion is on 3rd Novemebr 2020, & including suborning the Electoral College before 14/12/2020 fdollowed, perhaps by swearing-in day on 20th January 2021. And just what do you think DT & his crooks & militias will be doing in that interval?

    144:

    Until the STATE electoral votes are submitted to Congress in early January it IS a state thing. If mischief (that might succeed) is to occur it will be between the popular vote and the electoral college vote a month later. After that the process is mostly locked in.

    145:

    A bit more on the US economic front. Curious as to how this is playing out in the UK and EU.

    Realtors I know (the folks that handle buying and selling houses in the US) reporting great numbers. It seems that the Federal Reserve dumping $$$ into the US economy to keep it lubed up has driven down interest rates on mortgages such that those with seemingly secure jobs and were thinking of buying a house are doing so.

    And I've seen some reasonable talk that this slush pile of money is also what is keeping the stock market up in general. Buying a T bill means you get no return on your money so why not go for some stocks.

    146:

    This should have gone in the previous post. Sorry bout that. Admins move it if you want.

    147:

    I'm not going to spoiler an unpublished (indeed, unwritten!) novella that examines exactly that question. But note that it's set well before the New Management comes along.

    148:

    Thanks. That is a Clue, and I now have my Suspicions, but I shall have to wait for the Denouement :-)

    149:

    For US readers, principally. Is there a respectable US "newspaper" or equivalent which can be read here, on-line, without either a paywall, or a very limited number of "reads" before on hits a subscription/paywall limit, please?

    150:

    The Onion? Hard Times?

    It depends on what you want to read, but there are lefty online sites, for instance Politico and Vice, that are pretty much freely available. Inewsource is a good investigative nonprofit in San Diego. If you can be more specific, I'm sure lots of suggestions will float to the top.

    151:

    Ok. I read articles from the WaPo a lot (but NOT the NYT). 1. I'm running firefox on CentOS, with noScript. I do NOT ALLOW ANYTHING but what's necessary to read the article. That means start with only one thing, and the one thing is no always the paper. 2. Mostly, I don't go directly to the papers: I run google news, and you can set a country, and follow their links.

    Btw, news.google.com is, like google search, far worse than it was 6-8 years ago. I used to see articles from the Hindustani, and the Scotsman, and the Asia Straights-Times. Now, it's oh, you only want to read news from your country....

    152:

    respectable

    is in the eye of the beholder. ;)

    Axios. Politico. Both do good reporting. But unless you want to try and read through a festival of ads (people got to get paid) it's hard to find sources that are "free".

    Check out NPR. (npr.org) They are a bit to the left (depending on where you are standing) and free. I listen to all things considered on my phone via their app. This is their evening 2 hour news show. I tend to run a week or two behind real time. Which works as many of their stories are NOT about what happened 5 minutes ago. All of their stories are in text on their site as far as I know.

    PBS has a lot of news type shows. Not sure how many are GEO locked or available as text.

    I also like PRI's Marketplace podcasts. Not sure if they are online in text form but they are a reasonable source of mostly US based business news that isn't cheer leading. (Most of the time.)

    Lately Apple has been stuffing my news feed with way too many Guardian (US) articles which can be a bit annoying.

    Many times you can get to a paywalled article for free if you find it in Google News then open it in a private window.

    153:

    So, a giant revival for Traveler! (Except classic Traveler was absolutely not a game where you could go full murder hobo and expect to survive your first combat, so I'm guessing there'd be a bunch of updates to make it workable for the nuke-em-till-they-glow-then-shoot-em-in-the-dark demographic.)

    This was also my take: space opera as escapism. However in a world with public and irrefutable superheros and magic, that would likely have to leak its way in to anything that claimed to be "science-y". I imagine games like Traveller would evolve in the same way that they did to take into account the changes between late 70s "high-tech" and 21st century "high-tech". Which is how you might get your murder-hobo aesthetic: the PCs all have superpowers/psionics/indistinguishable-from-magic-tech/etc. that allow them to transcend the rather deadly combat of those sorts of systems.

    Either that or a revivial of games like Paranioa as a way of coping with the dystopian present via black humour. Which could either be viewed as subversive or a harmless pressure release, depending on the attitute of the powers that be.

    Although thinking about this, you could imagine Paranoia being set in the post-nightmare-green Laundryverse: the Computer as an early AI that accidentally starts warping reality, sealing itself and the city it was located in into the impermeable bubble that is Alpha Complex. And then the AI develops the electronic equivalent of K syndrome...

    154:

    The Onion?

    Been a few years since papers in China referenced "The Onion" stories on their sites. Made for some amusing reads.

    155:

    Totally off subject: a few months back, Charley, you and Greg pointed me to a clamshell. We're on our first post-lockdown trip (to one of Ellen's daughters and a son-in-law) and having so much grief with my 11-yr-old Netbook that I'm starting to think about replacing it (it's 32 bit machine anyway), and I was trying to look around for that one or others like it.

    I adore google, given -ipad -apple clamshell showing me apples as the first hits....

    Link, please?

    156:

    This reminds me of an image in (I think) a Top Ten comic (Alan Moore/Gene Ha), where everyone is a superhero, and a kid (with a mask and a cape) is reading a Business Man comic.

    157:

    Charlie Stross @ 52:

    Video games in general will probably take a hit at the publishers mostly sit in the USS (United States of Sleep)

    Ahem: You know GRAND THEFT AUTO was made just up the road from my flat?

    The UK video game industry is big, much bigger as a proportion of the global industry than the UK film/TV sector. While it's significantly smaller than the US games industry, that's really because the USA is a larger/more populous nation.

    Tariffs/trade barriers: we're getting a crash course in how they don't affect trade in soft goods that much -- they merely affect the price the end consumer pays, and prices of software can be tweaked endlessly: once you've amortized the development costs in your home market, exports are basically free money and you adjust the pricing to maximize revenue.

    I've never played Dungeons & Dragons (it came along about the time I married a narcissistic sociopath and allowed her to wreck all of my external friendships, so I had no one to play with.)

    I do play video games (mostly first-person shooters), so I looked if there is an online Dungeons & Dragons. It seems there is a "free to play" MMORPG Dungeons & Dragons game that you can play from your home computer. I wondered how true it is to the original concept? I have a vague idea of how multiplayer gaming works in the realm of first person shooters, so I know you can build build online teams to go off adventuring together.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMrN3Rh55uM

    I don't play online because my reflexes are shot & I don't have a powerful enough computer or a fast enough internet connection to keep up. If I ever decide to join in I'll need to build a dedicated gaming computer.

    Beyond that, I wondered how online gaming would work in the universe of the Laundry & New Management, since magic is computational? What would happen if you woke up a dragon in an online video game? Would it manifest in the real world of the Laundry & New Management?

    158:

    Martin @ 70: When things get really ratty, people tend to head for comforting safe tales from youth. So in an era of tzompantli, I rather suspect that the UK Gold style of programming will leap up in popularity; 1970s/80s sitcoms like “The Good Life” / “To the Manor Born”. Basically, anything featuring Penelope Keith or Felicity Kendal. “Midsomer Murders” might not make the cut - too many deaths in a time of dying.

    The New Management might of course be dropping heavy hints to broadcasters as to what programming is deemed “more suitable” in troublesome times. Can’t see “Secret Army” or “Allo, Allo” getting a repeat, and “V for Vendetta” is right out.

    What about Doctor Who? I'd really hate a universe where I didn't have Doctor Who.

    159:

    whitroth It's a Planet Computers "Cosmo Communicator"

    160:

    Charlie Stross @ 104:

    The American model of policing
    Which always was brutal, except it seems to have actually got worse, significantly so, in recent years - Trump, I presume?

    Nope, went all the way back to Nixon: Trump merely accelerated it.

    Nixon kicked off the war on drugs specifically so the cops would have an excuse to crack down on hippies, young people, and BAME communities. (It was a reboot of a 1930s era program to maintain Jobs For The Good Ole Boys who'd just had their Prohibition gravy train derailed.)

    Reagan -- nobody's idea of a civil rights activist -- accelerated it. He also pushed "care in the community" as a solution to horror stories about psychiatric hospitals, which resulted in shoveling a lot of folks with mental illnesses out onto the street, where they couldn't support themselves and ended up in prison. (Not a coincidence: most people with schizophrenia smoke, and many use cannabis because it is a self-administered palliative: it shuts the internal narrative down. So war on drugs = war on the mentally ill, too.) GHWB continued, then Clinton triangulated on the more right-wing congress elected in 1994 and accelerated it.

    I think you're missing the role of the U.S. Supreme Court in two ways - "qualified immunity" and "involuntary commitments". I don't disagree with the Supreme Court's mental illness rulings regarding the rights of the accused and/or less than well individuals, but the unintended consequences have been dire. Taken together with the neo-conservative movement's full on assault on anything remotely resembling a social safety net, they have established a right to rot on the streets. There's nothing inherently wrong with "care in the community" if those who need care could actually get it.

    Qualified immunity has been the more disastrous, because it essentially placed cops above the law. They can break it with impunity. "Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely."

    161:

    David L @ 125: PS: Reagan's military spending was in line with Carter's plans. Carter just didn't brag about it.

    Remind me to comment on this after we get past 300.

    162:

    I went to one of the websites, and looked... I REALLY like the PDA, which is cheaper by about a third... and that KEYBOARD! Tactile?

    I think when I sell my second story to SFWA rates, I'll buy one.

    163:

    Charlie Stross @ 127: If he doesn't have the Joint Chiefs on his side he probably can't make a coup stick. And he doesn't, and the numbers have got him in an emotional meltdown, and the further into meltdown he goes, the lower his chances of winning.

    Still, that doesn't mean he won't try or that certain enablers won't support him.

    164:

    David L @ 130: My son runs a weekly game. Or did. I'm not sure what he's doing with it just now. I can ask him what's up with Zoom D&D these days.

    Speaking of Zoom:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/zoom-suspends-us-based-activists-account-after-tiananmen-square-commemoration-event.html

    165:

    What greater sign could there be that the universe truly is a cold, uncaring waste? (Well, maybe a world without Star Trek. And a world without Godzilla would definitely be a world wherein the media gods had been imprisoned beneath an Elder Sign.)

    166:

    Is there a respectable US "newspaper" or equivalent which can be read here, on-line, without either a paywall, or a very limited number of "reads" before on hits a subscription/paywall limit, please? OK. I connected a Windows machine to a London VPN endpoint and tested a bit. Note that I have not (yet) sniffed the network traffic to see if the mentioned plugins are obviously tattling (non-obvious being near impossible to detect). First, install at least a minimal tracker/ad blocker loadout; "Privacy Badger" and "uBlock Origin" are often suggested as a base and they're available for many browsers (I don't know about Safari). Enable them in private browsing/incognito windows. (In Firefox that's a separate setting page that you get by clicking on the extension in the list, not the options for the extension itself.) Second, always recall that your ISP will record all connections and turn over logs to the government without your knowledge in some jurisdictions, probably including yours (they know just the domain for https), unless you use a no-logs (paid) VPN and/or Tor. (Tor Browser generally works, a bit slow, though I haven't tested it with the below.)

    Optionally (but preferably if you want to further limit trackers and/or are logged into any social media including google) start a private browsing/incognito window. I suggest going to https://www.hvper.com/ - a meta news aggregator with a mostly-US focus. The free version is fine; the paid version shows more headlines. Click on some of the news links and see what happens. These worked for me. - Washington Post - Launch in a private window. you will be given a panel. Select free viewing samples, then press OK. Will forget the count when you close the private window. - Vox - Slate - Huffington Post - Others.

    (There are also other options if you're willing to use legally dubious tools, but this is a good start)

    167:

    Only played twice many years ago.

    For escape, I'd prefer something as far removed from my physical reality as possible so that if I lived in a city then I'd probably want a pastoral escape. Less possibility of blurring reality if my mind really started going or of being reminded of my actual reality if I really needed to escape for those moments. Learning and practising some new skill would require enough focus/concentration that it could work as a form of escapism. Ditto some new manual skill -- like the current upsurge in home baking, esp. bread, also vegetable gardening.

    Character types/traits - Unlikely that an evil overlord would allow me a form of escapism where I could pretend that I was wise and powerful just in case such a belief (and eventually learned - neurologically consolidated - behaviour) spilled over into real life. Therefore allowable character types would have to look and act meek, weak, obedient/obsequious even if they were rebelling inside. They'd be polite to the point of parody or too stupid-seeming to be a threat.

    168:

    I'd have to think something escapist and not smelling of the current reality. May a Pirate or maybe Dumas-esque kind of thing. Lots of wit, and courage and swordplay and such.

    As for D&D by Zoom - I started a 5th ed campaign for my kids (middle and high school) and their friends. First time with that edition, but I've been playing since the cardboard box sets of the 1980s. We're using Google Meet since I'm too cheap to spring for Zoom that allows meetings over 40 min. It's worked surprisingly well. My daughter signs in her cell phone to the meeting and we use a flexible goose-neck mount to hold it over or beside. I stated them with a couple of sessions where they could join in a number of games and contests at the village's "Spring Fair" that I designed specifically to teach the mechanics of the game before they needed them in life-or-death situations. I then hit them with a plot train powered by children in need that has led to fighting skeletons. I count it as a feather in my cap that I was able to creep several jaded American teens with some of the lowliest undead in the game. TL:DR The mechanics of 5th Edition are fairly simple, hit up Google (or your search engine of choice) and find a combat cheat-sheet. It's still really cooperative storytelling, find a group you want to share a story with.

    169:

    Never been to hvpr. Tried one link, though, and it wanted me to sign in.

    170:

    Folks keep talking about escapism. Seems to me to be a chance to do things you wouln't do in real life, and become powerful, to actually take control of things.

    Which, given that I've named it a war game, makes it a training tool for life. I've seen teenage boys run a female character - a chance to try something out without any threat to your own personal ego/self.

    Actually, a friend I had back in the eighties got into martial arts, and told me how his dojo had gone into the woods for a game against another dojo... and he went into D&D mode, and set up traps to warn them when the others were coming, etc, and they slaughtered the other dojo.

    171:

    We're using the Rolld20 app and Discord (when discord doesn't do that thing where it screws up the audio for one person only.) The Line App for audio when Discord fails.

    172:

    Ahem: You know GRAND THEFT AUTO was made just up the road from my flat?

    The UK video game industry is big, much bigger as a proportion of the global industry than the UK film/TV sector.

    And just today got the prime first position in Sony's Playstation 5 event demoing games coming to the new console - Grand Theft Auto 5.

    173:

    I'm not sure it's as simple as lead-free petrol

    The same effect has been noted in other jurisdictions as well - that 15-20 years after removal of lead results in dramatic change in society behaviour.

    174:

    I believe it is CNN and other real time news networks. They need to keep people glued to the TV set, so anything gory is GOOD to play in an infinite loop.

    Anyone of a certain age from Western NY/Southern Ontario will remember in the 70s or 80s period the Buffalo Channel 7 news with Irv Weinstein, which almost always seemed to lead with "Buffalo's Burning" featuring a fire of some sort in Buffalo.

    Thus sensational stuff has been part of the TV news long before CNN and other things arrived on the scene.

    What of course has changed is the so called reality TV, shows like Cops (Fox/Spike/UPN) and Live PD (A&E) which have both now been cancelled thanks to the BLM protests this month. They always, more so than news networks, made it seem like the streets at night were dangerous and violent.

    175:

    Oh, dear, there is no way the New Mgt would tolerate Doctor Who being broadcast, let alone Doctor Who RPGs. Because if the Doctor should happen to actually show up he'd consider it the kind of problem that's right up his street. He'd have the whole lot of them trapped in the heat death of the universe by eating their own feet in no more than 6 episodes and one of those he'd spend so much time basically scratching his arse that they wouldn't be able to find a decent cliffhanger.

    It's not as if we don't already know the show in the circumstances we're familiar with is poisonous to entities of that kind. Calling attention to things certain forces don't want noticed yet. Who do you think Mary Whitehouse and John Nathan-Turner were working for? And there was definitely something trying to eat Tom Baker's brain and I'm not so sure it didn't have a go at Patrick Troughton too.

    176:

    What about the areas of the country where water is still supplied through old lead mains? They were said to deliver about as much lead to people's bodies as petrol did. There should be some noticeable difference between areas that do have them and areas that don't.

    177:

    ill Arnold Thanks SO: WaPo / HuffPo / Vox / Slate Open in incognito window, always & turn Java off? Yes / No / insufficient?

    Pigeon Only mattered where the water was/is "soft" Anywhere with any significant amount of chalk or limestone in the water minimises that problem.

    178:

    For those who aren't up to date on the latest developments in D&D it is now very much digitally enhanced and a lot of people are playing campaigns online without any sitting around a tabletop. The dndbeyond website provides the latest 5th edition (5e) rulebooks, character generation, encounters, dice, and homebrew options all integrated into one place.

    Coupled with Discord for voice/chat/video communications, Avrae for combat management, and your choice of mapping tool make for an online game that is really well supported in mechanical terms, and there are numerous other options besides the ones I'm familiar with.

    Additionally, D&D is currently very much a media phenomenon. Voice actors like Mike Mercer of Critical Role are streaming their gaming group and receiving a lot of attention. There are people watching these sessions that have no intention of playing the game but are now very much aware of it.

    So things have changed a lot and most of it in the last year or two so anyone whose been out of touch with D&D has a lot of interesting changes to catch up with.

    179:

    Moore had something similar in Watchmen, except it was a pirate comic.

    180:

    >>The New Management might of course be dropping heavy hints to broadcasters as to what programming is deemed “more suitable” in troublesome times. Can’t see “Secret Army” or “Allo, Allo” getting a repeat, and “V for Vendetta” is right out.

    >What about Doctor Who? I'd really hate a universe where I didn't have Doctor Who.

    Of course there's Doctor Who. There's always Doctor Who.

    But it's not always the same Doctor Who any more than it's always the same Doctor.

    This is a show that started as a low-budget way to teach children about history. After a while (and to lower the budget even more) Patrick Troughton got exiled to Earth and hung out with UNIT. It's been lots of shows. Around 2015 people will be criticizing Peter Capaldi for not being Matt Smith, as happens after every regeneration; under the New Management the audience won't be getting the same stories we got in our universe but they'll be getting something. Possibly an entire season in the far future and outer space, with the companions involved with various antics of the Doctor and River Song yanking each other's chains. ("You know what this is, Doctor? This is four hundred years of foreplay. I hope you're building up to something good.") Someone more expert about Doctor Who than I could probably remember the longest gap between episodes that show Earth.

    181:

    "What about the areas of the country where water is still supplied through old lead mains?"

    Saying "it depends" does not even start to cover it...

    As Greg says, if the water deposits scale, that will cover the lead up pretty fast and make it a non-issue, other impurities can pull the result in either direction.

    How harmful the lead is on ingestion ... depends on pretty much everything, including what you just ate, what your microbiome finds interesting and various obscure biological signalling mechanisms relating to trace mineral balance.

    The complexity is why civilized countries simply throw their hands in the air and ban lead in drinking water.

    In recent years it has been found that the actual armatures in your sink is a significant source of lead, because they are made out of recycled metal and nobody bothered to check how much lead was in that.

    In rural water supplies, arsenic washed out from the ground is generally a bigger problem than lead ... until you start to look for metabolites from pesticides and fungicides.

    182:

    That always was somewhere between seriously misleading and wrong. O-level chemistry teaches that lead is very hard to dissolve (it is), so there is a significant amount only in very soft water, and then only in water that has spent some time in the pipes - hence UK water companies running such water through chalk (or otherwise hardening it) before supplying it, and the old recommendation to run water for a bit before drinking it or using it for cooking. I agree that it is a POTENTIAL problem, if mishandled.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flint_Water_Crisis

    Also, essentially all inhaled lead is absorbed, and only a proportion of ingested lead. What's more, we do excrete lead, so continuous, very low levels are not the problem they are with some other toxins. If that were not so, places like parts of Wales would be too dangerous to raise children in, even without mining.

    https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/csem/csem.asp?csem=34&po=6 https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/csem/csem.asp?csem=34&po=9

    183:

    Whitroth: maybe hold off a while on buying a Planet Computers product. (I have a couple. So this is experience speaking.)

    They are a very small company, and while the products are real and exist, they tend to ship late and have software quality issues. In particular: the Gemini PDA is underpowered and runs a now-ancient version of Android, and the Linux port to it was never fully developed (because they picked a CPU/chipset that relied on proprietory binary blobs). The Cosmo is a much better finished device but has horrible firmware woes -- we're still waiting for a months-overdue update to fix major bugs introduced by the last-but-one update (the immediate fix was pulled, for quality reasons).

    In particular, their focus on making the Cosmo work as a smartphone was laudable (the Gemini ... didn't, to be polite) but ended up with a tiny battery-draining external display for calls: it's usable but kinda sucky. Turns out that the 1990s/2000s Nokia Communicator model they were shooting for hasn't aged well as a phone (although they more or less nailed the PDA hardware side of things the second time around).

    There is a new holy grail in kickstarter on IndieGogo at present, the Astro Slide, a third generation product. It's like one of the older slider phones, only with the keyboard of the Cosmo/Gemini behind a 6.5" display, so it'll be usable as a touchscreen phablet phone with the keyboard closed and as a PDA/pocket computer with the keyboard open. If they ship on time (cough cough, only six months late, as usual) and don't bork the software this time it might actually be a useful gadget, if a bit on the hefty side for a phone (as in: suitable for clubbing muggers to death with).

    184:

    Oh, dear, there is no way the New Mgt would tolerate Doctor Who being broadcast, let alone Doctor Who RPGs. Because if the Doctor should happen to actually show up he'd consider it the kind of problem that's right up his street. He'd have the whole lot of them trapped in the heat death of the universe by eating their own feet in no more than 6 episodes

    Disagree, strongly. Escapist media that encourage the passive consumers to look to be rescued from their fate-worse-than-death by a kindly, benevolent, superhuman being from beyond spacetime sounds like the perfect propaganda vehicle for the New Management!

    And lest ye forget, Josef Goebbels' propaganda ministry was really big on producing bread, circuses, and high-budget escapist movies with classy production values to keep the home front amused during the darkest days. We don't see much Nazi-era German cinema these days because it's got Nazi cooties all over it, but he had Leni Reifenstahl on staff and allegedly tried to hire Fritz Lang: he knew exactly what he was doing.

    If anything, one of the signs of UK conservative governments' intellectual bankruptcy is their complacent neglect of the British movie and TV industry as a vehicle for propaganda via infotainment. It's like their reaction to the existence of Ken Loach was to assume that cinema was irredeemably socialist and therefore the entire sector needed to be starved of resources.

    185:

    Upon further reflection, I could see D&D moving into a more Conan/Fafhrd & Grey Mouser direction, where spellcasting is downplayed and magic is, on the balance, mistrusted.

    In other words, expect the Barbarian class to get a fresh coat of paint, and probably a few more Rogue variants like Swashbuckler & Pirate.

    186:

    (CH₃CH₂)₄Pb - Tetra ethyl lead, 10^9 grams of it, one Canadian province, one year.(1)

    Although debate continues about available particulate Pb correlation effect on violence in society, this is more-or-less confirmed by the ability of certain governments to RIF the national police force & PCSOs by very large numbers in recent years. Of course, in parallel, the risk from terrorism has also declined, as has the risk from Dragons, Sorcerers, et al.

    Our glorious Media seems to overemphasise the dangers of Paladins & righteous warriors, and humanity is pretty useless at understanding risk, “monsters” being spotted every day. I think we need more flying cops in response, and less environmental pollution, I would like to see the Media eaten by something unpleasant, karmic.

    (1) https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(17)31466-6/fulltext quite a few correlative studies have shown that our care-homes are/were filled with lead-poisoning sufferers, this is just one paper from 2017

    187:

    Washington Post - Launch in a private window. you will be given a panel. Select free viewing samples, then press OK. Will forget the count when you close the private window.

    Not so much anymore. I was doing similar / almost identical things and just subscribed when I got a deal.

    Am I Unique will tell you if the ad trackers can know you. And the paywalls use this more and more.

    amiunique.org

    The finder print of the machine I'm typing this on plus my laptop are both unique out of a sample size of 2,135,820+.

    188:

    Yes, though part of that was signing ourselves up as a Mini-Me to the USA. Traditionally, Britain lead the world in propaganda, but part of that was by getting private enterprise on board (via indirect methods, honours etc.), and there was no history of direct state involvement except during wars. That bumbled along more-or-less adequately until the 1960s, but the world was clearly changing and Britain's approach and industry wasn't. I remember the debate over the Americanisation of our media starting then, and how the establishment did not (and does not) regard it as a problem. So, while the current gummint (and the conservatives) are intellectually barren on this topic, they are not alone in that!

    189:

    PH also matters a lot, water supplies not managed by political appointees* will use PH modifiers to avoid leaching lead. GOP apparatchiks.

    190:

    Josef Goebbels' propaganda ministry was really big on producing bread, circuses, and high-budget escapist movies with classy production values to keep the home front amused during the darkest days.

    And there's this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prora

    191:

    Greg- I would suggest the Politico website. It is comparatively centrist and seems to allow unlimited views. Politico Europe is also worth a read on European issues - while basically pro-Brussels they do try and cover Europe generally and clearly people do talk to them. If you do a bing/google search on Politico these should be the first two entries.

    192:

    Back in the 80s my father surprised me when I asked him why he didn't get a leaf blower. His comment was that he didn't think blowing up into the air decades of road dust with lead particulates from gasoline was all that good of an idea.

    Took me a few seconds of thought to agree with him. My wife is still a big miffed I'll not get one.

    They CAN be useful when you have 2 feet of oak leaves covering your yard and want to drive them into a pile on a tarp. But way too many people use them to blow leaves down the street into the storm drains. To the heartburn of the city folks who have to keep such things unclogged.

    193:

    "We're using the Rolld20 app and Discord..."

    Yeah that's the setup my group uses and it's pretty smooth - Roll20 has some nice pre-built character sheets for the more popular games which speeds up handling time and it being totally browser-based means that it's really easy to bring new people in to the game. The tools have noticeably improved since the last time we experimented with running sessions online a few years ago.

    We meet up for D&D on Monday evenings London time Charlie, so I could wangle you a slot if you wanted to sit in for (ahem) research.

    Regards Luke

    194:

    I'll confess that I only got halfway through the thread and apologies if I missed that someone already called it.

    But. Isn't a campaign about telling a story? i.e. The DM has a broad plot which they absolutely wouldn't railroad people into but...

    So what would a story, film or other media property look like in the new world order? What would fan-fic of same look like? Would it be future alien worlds or past early industrial?

    I'd suggest that Bioshock has a strong magic infused vibe of a dungeon crawl of the latter, although I couldn't speak to whether that would be influenced by the new normal.

    195:

    True, but the 24-hr-channels, coupled with the death of unions and the 8-hr day, and the massive growth of a 24-hour workday, has insisted on more content.

    See ESPN trying to find something to show on its multiple channels at 03:00 Eastern US time.

    196:

    Dunno where you are, but in the US in some cases, water mains are still WOOD.

    On the other hand, if you have a coffee maker... how many times a year do you have to run vinegar (or whatever) through to clean it out?

    Same thing on the water mains.

    I really need to clean our espresso maker....

    197:

    No. Turn off javascript.

    Can't understand how anyone could possibly confuse java with javascript, they're so unrelated....

    (Of course, satire) Really, if you run firefox, install noScript, then you can pick and choose. Just say NO to anything with "ad" in the URL, and doubleclick is right out.

    198:

    Scott Sanford @ 180:

    The New Management might of course be dropping heavy hints to broadcasters as to what programming is deemed “more suitable” in troublesome times. Can’t see “Secret Army” or “Allo, Allo” getting a repeat, and “V for Vendetta” is right out.
    What about Doctor Who? I'd really hate a universe where I didn't have Doctor Who.

    Of course there's Doctor Who. There's always Doctor Who.

    But it's not always the same Doctor Who any more than it's always the same Doctor.

    This is a show that started as a low-budget way to teach children about history. After a while (and to lower the budget even more) Patrick Troughton got exiled to Earth and hung out with UNIT. It's been lots of shows. Around 2015 people will be criticizing Peter Capaldi for not being Matt Smith, as happens after every regeneration; under the New Management the audience won't be getting the same stories we got in our universe but they'll be getting something. Possibly an entire season in the far future and outer space, with the companions involved with various antics of the Doctor and River Song yanking each other's chains. ("You know what this is, Doctor? This is four hundred years of foreplay. I hope you're building up to something good.") Someone more expert about Doctor Who than I could probably remember the longest gap between episodes that show Earth.

    I've only been watching since the early 80s when the local PBS station started carrying it. I'm up to date through The Timeless Children

    I have almost all of the then available episodes on Betamax cassettes & then later up through the end of the Sylvester McCoy era on VHS. I also had every available episode (including the Loose Cannon recreations) digitally until that hard-drive crashed (only the third hard-drive failure I've experienced since I first got my own computer some time in the late-80s. I have the DVD sets for the first 5 series of New Who

    I also lost my collection of Red Dwarf & 'Allo 'Allo episodes on that hard-drive.

    I'm slowly rebuilding my Doctor Who episode collection.

    199:

    whitroth @ 197: No. Turn off javascript.

    Can't understand how anyone could possibly confuse java with javascript, they're so unrelated....

    (Of course, satire) Really, if you run firefox, install noScript, then you can pick and choose. Just say NO to anything with "ad" in the URL, and doubleclick is right out.

    ... and allow me to sing the praises of a good hosts file

    https://winhelp2002.mvps.org/hosts.htm

    200:

    Maybe ON topic, given we are looking at an "alternative" model for the planety ... Hubble Costant vs "Standard" model don't agree apparently there sre serious Q's to be answered.

    201:

    Open in incognito window ... Yes / No / insufficient? So Incognito/private browsing is to try to get the browser to forget counters, depending on how the counting is implemented. Also such windows don't have access to most stuff outside the private browsing window. So it's good hygiene for helping to limit tracking (excepting by your ISP). Install some ad and tracker blockers, seriously. I mentioned a couple that never seem to mess up websites. Performance improves, for starters, particularly on many news sites. NoScript is a bit more of a chore in firefox. ScriptSafe in chrome can be helpful and has some anti-fingerprinting support. Both will break many sites until/unless you enable some scripts and it can be hard to tell which are needed for function. (There are others as well.)

    As far as news sites, I was suggesting hvper.com as a handy diverse list of clickable news site links to try out. (A few are American right wing.) Other people have made good suggestions. Some US news sites block European (presumably UK) IP addresses, which is annoying when using a outside-the-US VPN endpoint.

    202:

    As the stars come right for world-wide magical havoc, possession by disembodied entities would be trivially common and a known occupational hazard for certain professions. Performing arts like theatrical drama being particularly susceptible, anyone trying to act the part of an historical personage would run high risk of directly channeling the voice, manner and memories of that individual, under its control until the actor fell asleep or otherwise went unconscious. Even personality traits of purely fictional characters could resonate through the etheric medium until some approximately similar consciousness was lured in to take over, often with lethal consequences.

    Authors, songwriters and poets trying to emulate the style of long dead mentors would feel compelled to binge for days nonstop in round the clock automatic writing, after which they'd collapse, awakening to bemused perusal of seemingly lost original works by their chosen culture heroes.

    Amateur role players also would run amok right from the start, until game organizers check WikiLeaks for the wards, spells and protective plug-in pentagram designs that somehow find their way online from the Laundry's highly classified files. Gaming under the comfortable glow of a room sized shield-field would be wildly exciting, with conjured spectral menaces floating harmlessly around the perimeter, so long as wires remain securely connected and the power stays on.Whole game tournaments could be wiped out in a minute, however, if energy supplies like wind and solar got interrupted by a storm, lull, or sudden cloud cover hundreds of miles away. Just more senseless tragedy brought on by those damned intermittent renewables, when will they ever learn.

    203:

    NPR, a "bit to the lefT"

    Tell me another. When I happen to listen to the news, I constantly seem to hear a right-wing economist or politician, and then "and the Democrats said"....

    No. They sold in to the Grinch in 1995. They pander to their corporate sponsors. The public is an afterthought, except to local stations.

    204:

    Oh, crap. That was so nice. And you say I can't just install the disttro of my choice in it?

    I'm really not hot on a "smart" phone. I was looking at it as a replacement for what I take when traveling, my HP Netbook 1101, from 2009, that's 32-bit architecture.

    Prefer the clamshell to the slide, want the screen not visible (and protected).

    I have to admit, it struck me earlier today, what it reminded me of: the TRS 100, the 8-line sceen (later 16 line), that every reporter in the world bought....

    205:

    Or blow them into the neighbors' yard.

    206:

    whitroth The software glitches on mine seem to have disappeared, though admiteddly I'm not doing anything exotic.....

    207:

    An app, to roll up a character? Why?

    In my day, we rolled. And unless the character was completely unplayable, we ran with that.

    I have a character, an elf, who started with a strength of 4 and a charisma of 6. He was interesting to play (he's a thief, of course).

    Last time I played, his charisma was 12 or higher, strength was over 12, level 9.

    Oh, and when he hit 9, he converted, from religion of Orthodox Coward to Reform Coward.

    208:

    https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-06/nrao-ndm061120.php

    Turns out the "standard candle" supernova ain't quite so standard.

    209:

    You should be able to install Linux on a chromebook for travel purposes. Look up a program called "crouton." You'll probably be limited to a distribution that's optimized for smaller memories, but that's not a major problem.

    210:

    sigh Yeah, but the clamshell they were talking about has figured keys, and is tactile. Chromebooks seem to be laptop-ish, and heaving leaning towards "you're not typing, you wan to use your touchpad for everything....

    211:

    Now I just have to find a D&D campaign running on Zoom that can ease a player back in after about 37 years away.

    With covid drastically reducing our social commitments, some friends and I recently started a weekly campaign on Roll20. I suspect the time difference (afternoons, PST) would make it untenable, but you're welcome to sit in. In any case, we've found that while Roll20 has many rough edges, it works pretty well once you know how to avoid rubbing up against them.

    212:

    Yeah, but if all you're looking for is something for travel purposes... The alternative might be something like my little Lenovo laptop. It's got an eleven or twelve inch screen and a five-hour battery life. I bought mine used for 105 on Ebay and I've been very happy with it.

    213:

    Re: ' ... anyone trying to act the part of an historical personage would run high risk of directly channeling the voice, manner and memories of that individual, under its control until the actor fell asleep or otherwise went unconscious.'

    Okay, so we could end up channelling JC (or closest match to the guy that kickstarted Judaism 2.0), Nero, Attila the Hun, DaVinci, Ponce De Leon, Shakespeares, Lenin, Ghandi, Einstein, JFK (find out if he had any forebodings about Dallas), etc. Could be interesting to get their POVs on current situation. Maybe run some of them through the Hare psychopathy test.

    Speaking of psychopathy ... if experts can no longer tell whether someone is experiencing reality or a delusion, what happens to societal norms?

    214:

    “cops haven't adjusted to the idea that there are cameras everywhere, and thus whatever they do will be subject to public evaluation.” It’s entirely possible that the violence is not at all worse than it ever was, just better documented.

    215:

    You can still use dice if you want, but once you've rolled you can click on a spell and it will show up on something like the RollD20 app. Or when you level up the app will give you a choice of feats and you can simply click and it will automatically adjust all your stats.

    216:

    Yes, and I've been thinking that for years.

    217:

    This is starting to sound like a demo that runs by itself, no humans needed.

    Oh, whoops, Laundryverse... how fast is NM going to be pulled in?

    218:

    Not at all. It doesn't restrain creativity or make a character less interesting, but it does, for example, allow you do roll your dice in public when you're playing online - otherwise it's just another helpful app. That being said, some are definitely better than others!

    219:

    What do RPG’s do for people ?

    One common benefit is escapism. That will drive people toward Scifi, thought probably more of the “Fading Suns” variety then “Traveller” , something rooted in comfortable past institutions the way Fading Suns Isen the medieval era. I’d expect similar steampunk era games

    People also use RPG’s to confront fears and unknowns. This was why “Twilight 2000” was popular during the height of the Cold War. I’d expect a version of “Shadowrun” that is modded to an even more dystopian version of what people perceive as the current world

    I’d also expect deep epic horror like “Kult” or the world of darkness games where you become the thing you fear

    Sometimes they are to explore how things could have been different in history . I’d except versions of role playing games that explore the periods right before the Great Reveal where players play undercover agents, magicians etc in parallel worlds

    Superhero games are clearly going to be popular

    I actually think classic D&D wouldn’t fit any of those niches well anymore and might decline in popularity

    220:

    Here ya go: I noted, earlier, that as a war game, D&D is a teaching tool. So, a variation of D&D, where you're you, and you have to defeat superheros, monsters, etc....

    221:

    I've played off and on for (gah) 40ish years, in a number of groups. I have to say it vastly depends on the GM and the players: using the same rules (usually some variant of D&D 3.5/Pathfinder) I've seen everything from hack-and-slash with no real plot to intricate ritual-based role playing. The most common recurring theme is escapism: trying to set up a mindscape that allows for people to do what they can't or won't do in real life that they can in a fantasy situation.

    If things are really going into the crapper in some regard, I'd expect that to be the least important part of the game: the gamers are trying to avoid having to deal with that, so if magic/superheros/plague is prevalent in the real world, I'd expect those aspects to be missing in the game-verse. Perhaps a "Bunnies and Burrows" or another non-magical universe would be created and explored on the odd Wednesday evening.

    That said, I ran a gaming group back in middle school, also around '83, and there's one aspect I experienced in person that has little to do with the rules and more to do with public acceptance of fantasy RPG gaming.

    Namely, our group's moms were tired of hosting us, so we applied to the local library to use one of the public meeting rooms, of which there were several, for a once-a-week gaming session. After filling out the form, we didn't hear anything for a couple of months, then the proverbial fertilizer hit the centrifugal oscillator.

    I was informed that there had been objections at a high level to hosing a gaming group at the library, and that as a political compromise there would be a public meeting about the prospect. The public discussion meeting was held in the the largest auditorium in the library, and it was standing room only, with even a few reporters and a camera crew showing up. During the meeting, the objections raised were all on religious grounds, claiming that D&D was a pathway to magic, satanism, and all the Jack Chick psuedo-logic insanity about D&D so prevalent at the time. If you haven't read the Jack Chick D&D 'comic,' reading it will show you what many attendees professed as a reason to deny us use of the space.

    So, in a universe where such concerns actually had a chance of being true, I would guess that there would be a heavy crackdown on the part of anyone truly religious with any sort of social power against gaming in general, with any such public gaming space, all the school-based RPG clubs, and most likely most of the gaming stores being forced to shut down.

    If the NM wants there to be such activities, then they of course would override such objections; if they want those same activities shut down I would imagine they could do so trivially. Either way, the games themselves might well reflect the zeitgeist of the times: escapism by rejecting the NM line in some groups and escapism by going all-in on ritualism and magic-is-power in others, all depending on the GM and players, and where they have their gaming meeting places.

    222:

    There's a few different types of tabletop roleplaying games being made at the mo. The most commercially viable seems to be rules-light games, ranging from easy games to improv acting with prompts driven by dice. D&D 5th edition barely fits into that category but a big push from Stranger Things-driven nostalgia & of course being the owner of the best known name have made it a relative success story.

    Old School Rules (OSR), basically turning back to hack'n'slash wargaming with clunky rules, is another group of new games. Besides the clunky rules there's a strain of outright white supremacy among their makers; avoid.

    There's still other games made to fit some genre or another but since they're being made on a shoestring, often by people without the talent to do well elsewhere (TTRPGs are a tiny market, and this is a subset of that market) they can be worse than their predecessors. Which still exist even if there's no more material being made for them, and you can find a game of AD&D or Vampire: The Masquerade or Paranoia if you're in a big city or if you go online.

    224:

    As far as the New Management or Black Chamber regimes go, RPGs might fly under their radar entirely and if there was any response it'd be highly coloured by the exact attitudes of whatever person did pay attention. Pray that person is not Fabian.

    An actual invasion of England in C21 would spawn a hundred wargames and video games and a roleplaying game or two I'm sure. The fact it was over quickly and Alfar sent afterwards to places where they aren't seen much might limit the latter. I'm sure there's fantasies of counter-invading an imagined Alfar homeworld, I'm not sure how much 'the Alfar homeworld is totally dead' got out.

    I've read that there's a fair number of roleplayers among US military personnel serving abroad (lots of time to kill in places where you can't go out much) and that they lean towards D&D or Pathfinder (a D&D descended game). I can't tell you much more than that.

    225:

    That's a bit far off the OP isn't it? Sorry.

    As to what a GM might come up with in a D&D game. Start with the players' characters rebelling against an evil empire of elves, then as they fight their way thru a dungeon they find a magic gate - to a strange place called Leeds. Perhaps the elves started having odd weapons show up before that.

    226:

    I don't have any good evidence for this, but I believe that older UK water MAINS were rarely made of lead, but of pottery, iron, etc. Lead was used to seal the iron, and for distribution pipes, but not for the mains pipes. Lead just isn't strong enough to take the pressure, for a start, and always was fairly expensive and heavy.

    Wood was probably used in (say) London - it certainly was for drains - but almost certainly was replaced by iron after the industrial revolution.

    227:

    OP trope wise: "air superiority"/"call in an airstrike/dronestrike" becomes a shorthand for any favourite spell caster or other PC method for dealing with dragons and/or armies, whether or not the PCs have access to jet fighters or predator UAVs. But you probably already have this.

    228:

    A couple of general, background questions about this activity:

    Who decides what the RPG rules should be?

    The only two games I participated in basically involved using some sort of magic wand/gun to overcome/kill the opponent/enemy. My impression: not much call for coming up with creative alternative solutions, win-win outcomes or peace pacts. Also, rewards accrued almost entirely based on number of opponents/foes vanquished/annihilated without any negative consequences to the conqueror. Okay, I realize such games are escapes but if your escape always defaults to some form of violence - and even if you have all your marbles - nevertheless, isn't such activity a form of 'priming'?

    (Priming - Yeah, I know that this is the old argument against violent action games for kiddies but 'priming' has been demonstrated again and again as an effective technique for reducing certain psychological and behavioural barriers. And there's some spill-over - Pavlovian/Skinnerian conditioning - in terms of physiological reactions. And if you're into Wm. James: 'You do not run because you're afraid; you're afraid because you run'. Common counter-argument vs. priming: But this is the same as acting on stage/in film! Okay, but professional actors - who've learned how to yank themselves out of a character - frequently mention how certain roles impacted them.)

    Quite a few folks here have sci/tech backgrounds: how does this background change your play vs. someone with a non-tech/sci background? (Advantages/ disadvantages) Which type of player background results in more predictable game behaviour/strategy?

    What was the most surprising and/or memorable game gambit - why?

    Whether for a novel or something that more folks are going to be spending time doing because of the current 'interesting' times, I'd like to understand what this stuff really is about.

    229:

    The software glitches on mine seem to have disappeared, though admiteddly I'm not doing anything exotic

    Did you ever get Google Maps to work?

    230:

    It’s entirely possible that the violence is not at all worse than it ever was, just better documented.

    I'm firmly convinced of this. When your only news source was the local paper and 30-60 (well really 15-30) minutes of local TV news, and half that of national TV news plus whatever magazines you got the story count had to be low compared to 24/7 multiple cable news channels. And my local news today is on the air 3 to 4 hours per channel when you add up the sunrise, mid day, early evening, and then late night broadcasts. Lots of repetition and commercials but still room for way more stories than 30+ years ago.

    231:

    David L Perfectly I tried it .... again ... about 2 weeks after I last mentioned it & it worked out of the box - the software people had obviously been" doing things" in the background.

    Also your reply to R v d H ..... Yes - it's the "good" side of universal surveillance, as spoken of by Brin, for instance.

    232:

    Well, you wrote 'em, it's up to you to say... just seems to me that since the show (and people connected with it) are already known to have attracted the malevolent attention of brain-eating tentacled Things*, such Things being actually here and immanent could be expected to take a similar position but with considerably greater effect. Unless they are already regarding it as a case of "job done", I suppose.

    *It is possible that that point has eluded your attention, but then that was basically what was supposed to happen, of course.

    233:

    The artificial hardening thing in the UK is news to me, it has to be said, though I do wonder how long it has been standard practice; it seems to me that people talk rather less about whether places are in a hard water area or a soft water area than they used to, which suggests that normalising hardness is a practice that has become more prevalent in a period noticeable on my personal-experience timescale. We do have quite a few large towns which get their water mainly from moorland sources and which have a lot of Victorian housing whose eventual connection to mains water was done out of concern with bacterial contamination at a time when people weren't right bothered about heavy metals. Since we also have towns which are essentially the same in terms of development history, clobberage by industrial decline, deprivation, and general crappiness, but with a hard water supply, I was thinking that there ought to be a good chance of being able to extract a pretty decent signal for exactly how much difference lead in the water does make, and someone might have made some pretty coloured maps of it.

    234:

    Certainly no later than the 1980s, but I believe it was done considerably earlier in some places (if not always reliably).

    http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP97-65/RP97-65.pdf

    235:

    Thank you, that's most informative.

    236:

    "Air superiority" - snicker

    Nearing the end of the second (and last) Armageddon in my world/dungeon, the PCs found that they were in a cave, that opened on a 20-mi-wide river valley, steep cliffs, and figured out they had to get to a cliff on the other side.*

    Ah, yes, the First Elvish Air Cavalry: those who couldn't fly via artifact, or sword ability... were on the flying carpet, or on the Tensor's Floating Disk being pulled behind the flying carpet....

    • Note that it was also hard to breath. The player characters, with some clues from the DM (me), realized that this 9th level of the "dungeon" was actually 2B (US) years ago, and there was a lot less O2 in the air.
    237:

    Back when I was gaming, dungeons ranged from the ones (usually run by 16 yr olds or such) Monty Hall dungeons (you killed a hobgoblin, and got his 1M GP treasure, and....) to killer DMs (can I, heh, heh, kill all the PCs?). Fortunately, never was in either of those.

    The games I, and my buddies ran, all were along the lines of the DM, in the weeks or months of preparation, set up the outline, and in the game, they were collaborating with the PCs to write a story worth being in.

    There was one campaign I was in where the DM (a lawyer) had so overdesigned that too many Sunday afternoos, the only thing that happened was intra-party bickering.

    238:

    The game you run does depend a lot on the players and what they want to get out of it and how skilled in their craft they are

    You just need to know what kind of game you are in

    I generally most enjoy running heavily character driven sandbox games. Detail out the world and the npc’s and their various motivations, agendas and plots and let the story evolve as the players interact with it. This requires the most sophisticated players though and a lot of upfront work and a lot of time commitment from everyone

    This is pretty much the only way to run a large LARP as well, when you have a couple hundred players they pretty much have to be making their own stories. In the San Diego vampire larp i ran half the time I didn’t even know what was going on until someone died or broke the masquerade .

    The next rung down for me are the narrative driven games with a more or less predetermined story arc. This is the way most computer rpg’s work, though in a pen and paper game you can allow a lot more influence over the storyline then you can in a computer game .

    The lowest rung is the dungeon crawl where you mostly kill stuff. I got bored with those years ago and mostly do that kind of thing through board games

    239:

    A friend of mine worked before retirement at the Swedish Television Company as responsible for incoming newsclips from news channels abroad. Already in the late 90s for every 24h period, they received over 40h sendable material.

    I can't imagine the stunning amount of material they receive today...

    240:

    Lead was used to seal the iron, and for distribution pipes, but not for the mains pipes.

    About ... 15-20 years ago? In my previous tenement flat in Edinburgh, it began raining in the front hall one day. This was a big oops, as we were on the ground floor of a 4 floor apartment stairwell, dating to circa 1880.

    So we got the plumber in, and lo! What they found was that the water main came into our building through a boxed-in casement beside our side door (into the common stairwell). And a spur pipe, over the ceiling of our hallway, split off from the mains on the first floor to feed the flat above ours. They went up and yanked the pipe and, lo and behold, it was an original late Victorian lead pipe, that had become brittle and friable with age. (It got replaced and the leaks stopped.)

    Lead was too heavy/expensive for large mains, but due to its ductility it was popular with house/tenement builders -- made it easy to bend around joists/through holes and hook up to fittings. These days we'd use steel wire-wrapped plastic hoses or just straight plastic pipes hacksawed to length with lots of cheap joints.

    241:

    These days we'd use steel wire-wrapped plastic hoses or just straight plastic pipes hacksawed to length with lots of cheap joints.

    PEX that is rapidly taking over the US supposedly came from Europe.

    cross-linked polyethylene pipe

    Great stuff. Bend radius of something like 4 or 5 CM.

    Beats CPVC (which I think you meant above). And really beats copper and flame soldering.

    242:

    "It’s entirely possible that the violence is not at all worse than it ever was, just better documented."

    Almost certainly true. And what I believe is that the police are so protected by the media, prosecutors and the judiciary that they're simply assuming that they can brush off videoed crimes.

    243:

    "As far as the New Management or Black Chamber regimes go, RPGs might fly under their radar entirely and if there was any response it'd be highly coloured by the exact attitudes of whatever person did pay attention. Pray that person is not Fabian."

    Remember that the situation of the universe here is one the likelihood of summoning Something have gone up by a vast factor.

    If I were in the ranks of the 'middle management' of society (e.g., school principal), I'd be very aware of that. I would also be very aware of the consequences of summoning the attention of the higher levels within the New Management.

    Remember, at the very least there are vampires who need (IIRC) a death a week each? And that's just one small niche branch of the new system.

    244:

    “Souveillance”. Those below watching up instead of those above watching down.

    246:

    there are vampires who need (IIRC) a death a week each?

    A death every six months, minimum. (In "The Rhesus Chart" the newbies are (a) unclear on their needs, (b) sloppy, (c) figuring things out the hard way.)

    But yeah.

    However the New Management is sane enough that they'll probably deal with RPGs by realizing that gamers are going to find an outlet, so should be co-opted rather than forced underground, by a combination of subsidizing approved materials and providing supervised venues (e.g. school gaming societies, with oversight) to educate gamers about the risks and ensure nothing bad is allowed to happen. Which should reduce the problem by about 99% compared to driving it underground.

    They'll also be using the same techniques to police MMOs. Think 50 Cent Army rather than Gestapo.

    Of course, the odd high-stakes underground game is potentially very risky indeed ...

    247:

    Attached to all this is the problem that cops haven't adjusted to the idea that there are cameras everywhere, and thus whatever they do will be subject to public evaluation.

    Elsewhere (news article?) someone made the point that this isn't true.

    What the cops quickly realized was that (at least up until June 2020) being recorded didn't matter.

    Even if internal affairs and prosecutors decided they had enough evidence to prosecute, the public wouldn't convict - that the police lawyers in court would turn that video evidence around and convince the jury it was justified due to the limited time and possible threat - ie. can you tell in 1/2 second that the victim wasn't reaching for a gun.

    Thus they continued on there merry way do things as they always have.

    248:

    Oh, that's interesting: a really high stakes game....

    249:

    "...the water main came into our building through a boxed-in casement beside our side door"

    That's not the water main, that's the supply pipe. The water main is the big pipe buried under the street. A lot of the remaining lead pipework is in the form of supply pipes, because they don't actually belong to the water company, they belong to the building owner, and a lot of people either think they do belong to the water supply company or can't be arsed with paying themselves for all the digging their house up required to replace them. EC's link above explains how this peculiarity is used to argue against taking official action on the grounds that it's all the householders' fault.

    The problem with lead for large mains from a Victorian point of view is that the larger the internal diameter of a pressure vessel the thicker the walls have to be to withstand the same pressure. Lead is strong enough that you can get away with it for small diameter pipes, but full size mains type pipes would need to be impractically thick-walled.

    "These days we'd use steel wire-wrapped plastic hoses or just straight plastic pipes hacksawed to length with lots of cheap joints."

    And it would look a complete fucking mess. Places plumbed like that look like nothing so much as if they had been plumbed by me when I was a little kid plumbing up my dens and tree houses with bits of garden hose and iron/brass/copper fittings. To some extent that is understandable since it is nothing more than a commercialised standard-parts version of the same technique, but that alone does not explain why they also share the characteristic of looking like a six-year-old did it. At least with lead plumbing people used to take some pride in making a decent neat job of it.

    250:

    And it just hit me: anyone here ever heard of or read Jerusalem Poker, by Edward Whitmore? There the Mufti, and this Irish gunrunner, and... seriously high stakes poker.

    And a very strange book.

    251:

    "Great stuff. Bend radius of something like 4 or 5 CM."

    We built a new house a couple of years ago, all water is distributed using PEX pipes.

    I was surprised to see that they put the PEX inside a 20mm PVC sleeve, but the explanation made a lot of sense: If the PEX develops a leak, the water comes out in the "wet rooms" at the ends of the PVC sleeves, and they can trivially replace the PEX, should the ever need to.

    I asked if they had ever done that, and they said once, when a batch of PEX tubing had been recalled.

    252:

    I believe is that the police are so protected by the media, prosecutors and the judiciary that they're simply assuming that they can brush off videoed crimes.

    And evidence suggests that so far that has been a valid assumption.

    253:

    New character class: "Demagogue", specialist Illusionist/Cleric subclass. Requires charisma score >16, and combined wisdom plus intelligence score of at least 32 or of no more than 8; in the latter case, no penalty on spellcasting success. Gains bonus modifiers of +1 chance of spellcasting success or –1 on victim saving throw (per level) for all spells related to making people take acts that are against their self-interest. Double those bonuses if the action conforms with the victim's alignment. Demagogues are mostly lawful or neutral evil; chaotic evil is permitted, but tends to have short life expectancy. Double all experience point bonuses for forcing good (chaotic, neutral, or lawful) characters to act against the interests of society.

    254:

    Why wisdom? Why not, say, constitution?

    I mentioned, some posts ago, that my spell point system gave MU's spell points == intelligence + constitution, and clerics == wisdom + constitution.

    A demagogue, I can't see having a lot of use for "wisdom".

    255:

    By the way, back when we were gaming, I got a reasonable metric for "how far can a fighter run in armor in a melee round": melee round == 6 sec. That was before I left Philly... I was in good shape, and I put on my full SCA heavy fighting armor (solid steel breastplate, two-piece backplate, brigandine kilt, greaves, vambraces, two-layer freon can helmet, steel sword, shield. IIRC, it's about 120'.

    256:

    It’s entirely possible that the violence is not at all worse than it ever was, just better documented.

    That can be true at the same time as "there is extra police violence right now because the PTB want to send a message" (as they so often do) and that many PTB are caught in a "I've started so I will finish" trap of their own making. Or they could just be parading around behind the best-dressed emperor in town.

    But the undeniable context for this is a much more militarised collection of police forces. Both equipment and training all too often put cops in a context of "suppress the enemy" rather than "protect the community".

    As always #notallcops, there's a range of attitudes from "kill them all" through "meh, I'm not sticking my hand up" to "this is bad, I will fight it then quit if they don't fire me first". Many of the latter have already been fired.

    The other context of course is the leadership who are willing to accept more deaths as the price for power.

    Or some combination of the above that varies from place to place.

    257:

    solid steel breastplate, two-piece backplate, brigandine kilt, greaves, vambraces, two-layer freon can helmet, steel sword, shield. Minus the sword, would that be legal to wear to a street protest in the US? And what would the police reaction be? Say, hypothetically, that it was all spray painted Drunk Tank Pink? You know there would be a bunch of people recording people wearing such gear. Would make the news television/videos for sure.

    258:

    I'm not sure I'd waste something that expensive.

    However, I think that plywood tower shields, panted drunk tank pink, with various hearts and rainbows, is just what a nonviolent (definitely not antifa, oh no) protection wall needs to deal with some wannabe Proud Boys. Especially if the wall's being held by women. And people are spraying cheap perfume out over da boyz from behind the wall. Nothing like coming home smelling like a naive tween girl after failing to get through a simple shield wall to make someone feel truly manly.

    259:

    Re: 'There was one campaign I was in where the DM (a lawyer) had so overdesigned that too many Sunday afternoos, the only thing that happened was intra-party bickering.'

    Ahh ... gamespace intrudes on reality, or vice versa!

    Actually sounds like it could be a Python skit - amusing if you don't have to live through it. :)

    260:

    Re: 'Both equipment and training all too often put cops in a context of "suppress the enemy" rather than "protect the community".'

    Depends on the tech you opt for: where body cams have been used, crime rates and citizen complaints dropped.

    https://www.govtech.com/public-safety/Research-shows-police-body-worn-cameras-reduce-misconduct-and-cost-for-Las-Vegas.html

    'Other studies have shown activating body-worn cameras decreases use of police force, decreases citizen complaints and officers report they are a good tool for training.

    Wright’s research focused on how camera usage influences outcomes – crime rates. The camera can address the problem of distrust that can occur between the public and policy because the taping can impact police behavior.

    “It provides accountability so officers have less discretion to act rogue agents,” said Wright, who hopes his findings will inform potential policy makers.'

    261:

    As you say, it's "where cameras are used". It's not enough just to give cops access to body cameras as we see from all the "not turned on", "turned off" and "lost footage" incidents.

    262:

    The Virtual Balticon: well, didn't run into any of you there, and I was hoping to.

    I know, not 300 yet, but we just had our debrief meeting. Over 1000 people on Discord, not sure how many "attended" the zoom panels, talks and koffeeklatches. Attendees from SIX continents (we're wondering about getting someone from Antarctica next year).

    New Zealand, the NASFiC, and other conventions (and I hear someone from the US military) are talking to us about how we pulled it off. We may, possibly, have some things virtual in the future, when we're back to in-person conventions.

    Oh, I think some of the panels are on youtube, if you're interested.

    263:

    Other than the steel sword, yes. Back when I was fighting heavy, around '75 or so to '81 or '82, I used to walk from practice, on the UofP campus, home. In cool weather, I did have my large wool cloak over it... it was easier than dragging it in the canvas laundry bag.

    Always thought about an attempted mugging, and they tried the knife.... snap.

    264:

    Oh, if you're interested, I do have a photo of me, armed, from '83, I think - some friends were in an art class, and they got the instructor to invite me to pose, so they'd have something really different to paint.

    My armor was spray painted dark green. Well, except for the shield, and I can describe it, if you want, since it bears my registered Device. In proper heraldic, if you like.

    265:

    In proper heraldic, if you like. PLEASE!

    266:

    In other words, expect the Barbarian class to get a fresh coat of paint, and probably a few more Rogue variants like Swashbuckler & Pirate.

    Also classes with ranged combat abilities. There are still text-based MUDs out there, with now decades of evolving incremental improvements based on their various player communities. Swash made me look...

    267:

    In many ways the MMORG scene is one end* of the RPG spectrum.

    There is also Path of Exile, a basic "run round and hit things" game like Diablo or any other FPS dungeon crawler. But with 10 years of development behind it and a new theme every three months they have explored an awful lot of the "run round hitting things" space.

    I quite enjoy it, and until relatively recently thought that it ate video cards in a dramatic fashion. But then I downloaded my first "Unreal Engine" game and my relatively new video card almost caught fire... playing a very basic intro tutorial for a World of Warcraft style real time strategy game. Not impressed. Yes, it runs at 4k... so does Mashinky, and that has more going on than that tutorial and runs a lot easier on the hardware.

    • in the sense that multidimensional phase spaces have ends
    268:

    It could be fun. I made a shield for firstborn’s primary school “dress up as your favourite book character” day. The layers of cardboard, glued together crossply with a slight curve, with proper arm straps built in. Got told by beloved to cut the size down, because I’d obviously made it big enough to hide behind. Really light, quite strong.

    I was trying to persuade him to go for the family device of argent, a cross engrailed sable; but he wanted argent, a cross d’or, like the book.

    He’s still got the shield, it turned out to be sturdy as hell.

    269:

    Re: '"not turned on", "turned off" and "lost footage" incidents.'

    Agree. Yet it should be pretty easy to log and analyze by cop, number and types of arrest, neighborhood/patrol area, complaints, etc. vs. bodycam status [on or off]. A work-around for the forgetful cop is to have the bodycams on/off switch centralized from the police station: as soon as that cop goes on duty, camera goes on and stays on for the rest of the shift. Not sure but guessing this could be similar to presumed always reachable by police car radio, phone or beeper - always on. Also think there's an argument to be made from the perspective of the cop's personal safety: if the cam is off, then he/she might be in danger, i.e., some bad 'un turned it off.

    A centralized bodycam control system would also mean that all video would be immediately sent to the police dept which would probably use cloud storage. I'm of the impression that it's very difficult to 'accidentally' erase/delete anything from a massive centralized system which probably also had backup storage systems.

    • Bodycam - I'm guessing that current bodycams are video cameras only but it would make sense to integrate a phone/radio. The phone part would probably mean that any bodycam would always be locatable.
    270:

    "Big enough to hide behind" is what you want, right? Because now it's useful for a proper shield wall...

    271:

    whitroth wondered: "Why wisdom? Why not, say, constitution?"

    Mostly because manipulating others requires either intelligence (to have studied and learned what works to manipulate people) or wisdom (insights into how people think and feel and how to use that to manipulate them). Either works, but you see both extremes: First, Trumpian demogogues, who are brilliant at manipulating people while (probably) being unable to walk around the block without collapsing from the effort (low CON) and who don't have enough brains to blow their nose without assistance or to look both ways before crossing the street. Second, fundamentalist religious demogogues, who deeply understand how to manipulate their chosen people. Realistically, there will be demogogues all across the statistical distribution for INT and WIS, but for humor purposes I assumed two extremes.

    whitroth: "I mentioned, some posts ago, that my spell point system gave MU's spell points == intelligence + constitution, and clerics == wisdom + constitution."

    I used exactly the same system for my mages, with spells costing 1 point per spell level and with the footnote that once you ran out of spell points, you could tap into your intelligence; the more you did that, the more fatigue caused and the lower your INT in the next round, thus lower chance of maintaining enough concentration to cast subsequent spells until you rest and recover concentration. For fighter classes, I used constitution for additional fatigue and hit points (to overcome fatigue and temporarily shrug off non-disabling injuries). For clerics, I didn't implement either system because most cleric subclasses implicitly rely on "please [deity] may I have X" rather than on heroic efforts of intellect or body. For ritual clerics (e.g., clerics who must dance to achieve a divine intervention), the INT/CON system was an option if it made sense for that form of magic.

    272:

    Bodycams are a sticking plaster on a myocardial infarction.

    The real problem isn't being able to prove specific allegations of violence against specific police officers when they act out; it's the entire concept of law enforcement by policing, combined with the mass incarceration system and a prosecutorial system that produces wildly discriminatory outcomes based on the race, class, and wealth of the accused.

    Really, do I need to remind you about Policing by Consent and the Peelian principles again? Or point out that in a healthy society where the public consent to the laws governing behaviour, proactive policing is seldom needed?

    273:

    Martin Then the book ( whatever it was ) was wrong - I don't think you are allowed to have a metal ( Or ) on another metal ( Argent ) - are you?

    Charlie From our p.o.v. the US "system" of so-called "policing" is wierd & scary & ours is supposed to be "soft" & "useless" by theirs. Even allowing for PC Savage & known disregarding of Peelian Principles, that is the model we are supposed to be following & it looks as though ( For "normal" police, anyway ) that most EU countries are now similar. But the US ... I only recently realised that no matter how stupid, dangerous or painful, if a US so-called "policeman" gives you an instruction, you can't argue... Which is a fundamental flaw, simply because it clearly encourages authoritarian & violent behaviour.

    274:

    I only recently realised that no matter how stupid, dangerous or painful, if a US so-called "policeman" gives you an instruction, you can't argue...

    "Failure to comply" is an automatic felony offence in Wisconsin.

    275:

    The system is working as designed, I suspect. It's just that the targets are now more visible.

    Slavery by Another Name by Douglas Blackmon, which won the Pulitzer in 2009, details how "hired" convicts were used as slave labour by US corporations, and how the legal system was set up to facilitate this (including sheriffs and judges being paid bounties on convicts).

    Convict labour sounds like the gig economy version of slavery, actually.

    276:

    Vert, a dragon, in annuleto, argent, surmounted by a glaive, or; in chief, limned argent, three etoile of the last.

    277:

    ARGH!

    Vert, a dragon, in annuleto, argent, surmounted by a glaive, or; in chief azure, limned argent, three etoile of the last.

    278:

    Back in the day, folks told me my shield was about the lightest they'd felt. It's a round. Most folks just used heavy plywood. What I did was 0.5" plywood, and an oak-veneer panel from an old, tossed out door... and around them, a bicycle wheel, with the spokes sandwiched between the wood and the veneer, with a dead bike tire over the rim, to protect opponent's weapons. The veneer took a lot of abuse, along with the bike rim.

    279:

    Heraldic: nope. you don't have a metal on a metal, a color on a color, or a fur on a fur. If you're looking out of your helm on a dusty day in the middle of a battle, you can't tell the difference.

    280:

    Bill Arnold @ 257:

    solid steel breastplate, two-piece backplate, brigandine kilt, greaves, vambraces, two-layer freon can helmet, steel sword, shield.

    Minus the sword, would that be legal to wear to a street protest in the US? And what would the police reaction be?
    Say, hypothetically, that it was all spray painted Drunk Tank Pink
    You know there would be a bunch of people recording people wearing such gear. Would make the news television/videos for sure.

    Here in the U.S. it would probably be legal WITH the sword, although the fashion police might object.

    281:

    _Moz_ @ 261: As you say, it's "where cameras are used". It's not enough just to give cops access to body cameras as we see from all the "not turned on", "turned off" and "lost footage" incidents.

    And a lot of the video from when they are turned on is just plain useless.

    They should be using helmet cams that are securely mounted, stabilized and point where the officer is looking. Even better, four stabilized cameras, front, back and sides with overlapping FOV.

    282:

    @213 asks "Speaking of psychopathy ... if experts can no longer tell whether someone is experiencing reality or a delusion, what happens to societal norms?"

    There' d be a range of outcomes based on how closely the delusional state under consideration adhered to real world observations. Most would have wide enough overlap, in a Venn diagram that modeled their mental state with what we usually think of as reality, to provide an adequate common frame of reference for some meaningful interaction. More or less anyway. As a result, societal norms would have to be flexible if they didn't want to completely alienate and marginalize "guest" personalities during their visitations. Sliding scales would apply, pirates you'd cut more slack than the archbishops. If all else failed you'd keep a rubber mallet handy to whap the back of their heads and hope they wake up as themselves again. Then wait to see if you get, "Ow, whudja do that for, asshole!" , or "Arrr, ye scurvy dog!", or "Guards, seize him! Burn the heretic!"

    Good list of culture names, by the way.

    283:

    "Failure to comply" Straight-out DEFINTION of an actual Police State ... And ... it's been that way all the time & we didn't notice & believed the USA was some bastion of "freedom"? This is such total bullshit as to be ridiculous.

    284:

    _Moz_ @ 267: In many ways the MMORG scene is one end* of the RPG spectrum.

    * in the sense that multidimensional phase spaces have ends

    There is also Path of Exile, a basic "run round and hit things" game like Diablo or any other FPS dungeon crawler. But with 10 years of development behind it and a new theme every three months they have explored an awful lot of the "run round hitting things" space.

    I enjoyed Diablo & Diablo II, but Diablo III was a real disappointment. I took a quick look at "Path of Exile" and it looks a whole lot like Diablo III.

    I quite enjoy it, and until relatively recently thought that it ate video cards in a dramatic fashion. But then I downloaded my first "Unreal Engine" game and my relatively new video card almost caught fire... playing a very basic intro tutorial for a World of Warcraft style real time strategy game. Not impressed. Yes, it runs at 4k... so does Mashinky, and that has more going on than that tutorial and runs a lot easier on the hardware.

    I'm more into first person shooters. I started out with the original "shareware" DooM and Wolfenstein 3D ... and then Half-Life came along. I never liked games based on the "Unreal Engine" ... the graphics were just TOO unreal.

    And "World of Warcraft" is everything that was wrong with Diablo III plus being a HUGE money suck.

    I've never had problems with video cards from playing games. Like anything else in a computer they will fail over time. I'm currently using a mid-level 8GB Radeon RX-570, but that's because of the 4k monitor and that seemed to give me the most bang for my buck, although I think it is considered a gaming card.

    My main consideration was that it was available in a form-factor compatible with my existing motherboard.

    285:

    Well you can play more military traveller there was a whole expansion which went from tech l 4/5 up to 15/16 - but that was more for wargamers.

    Could get interesting tech 15 verging on 16 (culture level) Jump Commandos 100% teleporting very high tech power armour.

    The more likely winner would be starfinder aka pathfinder dnd in space.

    Not sure how the new management would take to WH40K I suspect there might be a reboot of the system

    286:

    And a nice call out to Brecht as well - if you noticed it.

    287:

    I see new rules and uncontrolled access to roleplaying materials be a major national.security risk.

    Consider a half dozen 14 year olds role playing based on rules created by someone with nefarious intent. They go through various motions turning the dials and setting the levers of a metaphysical machine and do highly complex calculations using montecarlo like techniques with 20 sided random number generators vectoring into look up tables. At some point, a the old lady next door calls the police about a suspected cult operating out of their neighbors basement, SWAT breaks down the door, finds six teenagers dressed in wizards robes chanting in Old Enochan and follows their training which says to use any possible means necessary to stop them from doing whatever unspeakable thing they are trying to do. That actually wouldn't be so bad in the grand scheme of things. Mistakes get made, even deadly ones and some people resign, and politicians promise to take steps to make certain it never happens again.

    Then problem is, when they light up that room with automatic weapons fire, it does not just end with a massacre of six innocent teenagers who were just plating a game harmless game. In fact, the game actually WAS harmless ... without the virgin sacrifice. (what better place to find one, or six, than a bunch of role players) With that sacrafice, the final lever is thrown and all hell is unleashed... Literally.

    288:

    And now we know in advance the exact and complete storyline of at least one Meddlesome Ratbag strip in the NM-era Viz.

    289:

    From experience I have been playing online AP (IE streamed live) Gaming for a 18 months or so post covind I have been doing 2-3 games a week - a mix of pathfinder (1 & 2) Starfinder, Digenisis, Modern Age, and Proper Dnd 2nd edition having to remember how thaco work took a bit of getting used to.

    This is tonights game https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVGOl2n8MAY

    People use Roll d20 https://roll20.net/ or fantasy grounds as a digital table top and then either those platforms audio or a separate service we use google hangouts on ours. Most also often set up a discord for out of game chat.

    All you really need is a decent headset (not a 9.99 one) and ideally a separate webcam the ones built into laptops are normally rubbish.

    Really want to do it a lot and you will probably want an external sound card and a better mic.

    290:

    To be fair, I've never heard of a police officer using those rules in anything other than the context of policing, in large part because the relevant parts of the Constitution prevent a lot of that sort of thing. For example, a police officer can't say "Let me into your home or I'll arrest you for failure to obey," because the Constitution mandates that the police get a warrant before invading someone's home.

    291:

    Re: 'it's the entire concept of law enforcement by policing,'

    Agree - generally.

    I guess I'm too used to not having issues with the police so haven't seen as much of the dark side - knock wood!

    Societal expectations, recruitment practices, training plus access to community support services all impact how any person who's different along any parameter will be treated and by whom. Backdropped by the overall (and type of) religiosity of that particular society and whichever cop you happen to encounter.

    Wondering how much the size of your 'local' population matters. I moved from the commuting burbs of a major urban area to the equivalent of a much smaller city* last year. Right away noticed a huge difference in interpersonal interaction style and frequency both downtown as well as in the burbs. Mostly -- the 'interpersonal' interactions here are in fact 'personal': you're not treated like a number or automaton. There's more tacit 'interpersonal' responsibility for everyone here as well as direct interpersonal feedback - I've seen this in who helps whom, when and how.

    Networks also seem much tighter here - maybe 3 or 4 degrees of separation vs. the 6 degrees a la Kevin Bacon. Seems that in this type of environment where you can get personal inside dope on just about everyone in your community, BSing ain't gonna work - you'll get called out. A side effect of this - not being able to claim ignorance of as large a proportion of the population therefore hide anonymously as one more mote in a swirling mass of humanity - is that if something's happening in your community, it's personal.

    • This city also has a long standing reputation for being very friendly and open.
    292:

    Troutwaxer Erm, bollocks .... Breonna Taylor shot in her own home by stupid cops with a "No-knock" warrant.

    293:

    Right. Those cops were terrible. But they had to apply to a judge for a warrant and could theoretically have been turned down. - And the current expectation is that no-knock warrants will rapidly become illegal, probably along with other abusive practices.

    294:

    You might find this essay interesting:

    https://medium.com/@OfcrACab/confessions-of-a-former-bastard-cop-bb14d17bc759

    As someone who went through the training, hiring, and socialization of a career in law enforcement, I wanted to give a first-hand account of why I believe police officers are the way they are. Not to excuse their behavior, but to explain it and to indict the structures that perpetuate it.

    I believe that if everyone understood how we’re trained and brought up in the profession, it would inform the demands our communities should be making of a new way of community safety. If I tell you how we were made, I hope it will empower you to unmake us.

    295:

    Greg, you might find this essay interesting, too. It's about the rumours of antifa action that have small town militias all hot and bothered.

    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/annehelenpetersen/antifa-rumors-george-floyd-protests

    Militia members get to plan, anticipate, and enact the idea at the foundation of their existence. And they get to do it in a way that positions them as “the good guys,” fighting a cowardly bogeyman easily vanquished by show of force alone. As a popular meme circulating in North Idaho put it, “Remember that time when Antifa said they were coming to Coeur d’Alene / And everyone grabbed their guns and they didn’t come? That was awesome!” It doesn’t matter if antifa was never coming in the first place. They didn’t come, and that’s evidence of victory.

    296:

    never had problems with video cards from playing games.

    I have a recent GeForce 2070 with a ridiculous amount of memory in it, which is why I was saddened to hear it spool up for takeoff when I started playing that game. When I bought the machine and stress tested it I got that result, and system power consumption hit 500W... which is fine, stress tests do that. But a game? A game when I'm not doing anything, just waiting while a resource counter ticks up to victory and ~200 minions wander slowly round picking up resources? FFS.

    Mashinky is a train simulator. I can have 200 trains navigating round doing similar things but the system is barely above idle.

    297:

    Yeah, I bookmarked that for future use in a fictional setting. Hard to tell if it's a reasonably truthful account or agitprop though, since it's definitely gray literature if not black (Officer ACAB? First publication?).

    298:

    Re: plumbing & PEX. When I built my house 10 years ago the standard (for Canadian building) was PEX for all internal plumbing and a waxy polypropylene sort of material for the 7ft underground pipe to the well. I like the way it saves joints and needs no soldering. Take care to not cut the pipe where you shouldn’t. Use crimp fittings or SharkBite fittings. Using this stuff instead of old style copper is like the difference between programming with something tedious like C and getting it done properly with Smalltalk. Which to faintly connect back to the subject, is like playing a Skill 20 Sotware Wizard instead of a Skill 5 Code Drudge.

    299:

    Rbt Prior Typical Brownshirt posturing, showing how hard they are ... Makes them worse & worse, actually

    timrowledge All very well for cold water or maybe even domestic hot water - maybe. What about Central Heating pipe & jointing? [ Yes, I've got a short length & an awkward bend ( maybe 2 ) that need replacing. And Im not looking forward to it, as I'm not sure that Cu-compression will hack it, either. ]

    300:

    Coming in late, missed the new topic, but about those gods which could exist:

    My first ideas were about Warhammer Fantasy Roleplay (in our world I think in the fourth edition by now) and the various roleplaying games set in the Warhammer 40K universe. There were a bunch of them by Fantasy Flight Games (Dark Heresy for playing the retinues of inquisitors, Rogue Trader for playing, well, rogue traders, and I think at least three games for different soldier-type thingies). One of the WH40K games was explicitly about playing Chaos-worshippers, and in that world there are four chaos gods, which are somewhat bad news for all involved. There's apparently a new game in the works or even published, by some other company, I don't know much about that.

    I'd say that the Warhammer might be a nice respite - at least in many campaigns you can kill chaos monsters and oppose the gods, though there's the underlying futility in many of them. Less in the Rogue Trader (where you have fleets of spaceships kilometers long) or Deathwatch (where you are Space Marines, the engineered super soldiers), but even they can face invincible threats.

    I'd also think that Gamma World might be a nice one to play in the situation. It's a venerable game, with multiple versions, playing in a post-apocalyptic world with psionics, mutated plants, and all kinds of weird stuff. Easily adjustable for whatever apocalypse you want as the game doesn't really tell you what happened.

    Also Night Witches might be a "fun" game to play in the Laundry universe. It's about Soviet women bomber pilots in the Second World War, and is just as happy and joyful as that suggests.

    301:

    PEX I like the way it saves joints and needs no soldering.

    CPVC, copper, and iron piping all have their connections on the exterior of the pipe. So while a connection may create a small turbulence point there is no restriction of flow.

    With PEX, the connections on on the interior of the pipe so every single connection means a restriction point in the flow.

    The worst is an old school plumber who installs PEX as if it was copper/cpvc and keeps putting in right angle and T connections instead of all home runs.

    302:

    I have so many questions, I feel I have to zoom out (not that it helps much). Could ask what is going to happen to the culture of Earth.

    Maybe a model is a country being colonized. Celtic Britons encountering Romans, or any number of countries encountering Europeans. How much culture is retained, how much is adopted? Are the colonizers metaphorically English or Belgian, and are the differences even apparent to the colonizees?

    There is a Vernor Vinge short story where the global south is invaded by anarchist libertarian aliens (the north having wiped itself out in a nuclear exchange)... I think it was "Conquest by Default".

    We should expect to adopt the games of the colonizers, or for our games to be viewed throught the colonizer's lens.

    Finally, if reality has a right-leaning bias rooted in its (fictional) physics, is the story about the truth of this or the fight in the face of it? Either could be the basis for a game.

    303:

    Finally, if reality has a right-leaning bias rooted in its (fictional) physics,

    It seems that reality has a left-leaning bias, at least in our current political framework. Look for example at the way authoritarian right-wing maximum leader types simply cannot get their heads around appropriate pandemic response measures. (They seem to evaluate everything in terms of primate dominance signalling; chest-beating and roaring may intimidate other apes, but it's useless against a volocanic eruption, an earthquake ... or a viral pandemic.)

    There is a Vernor Vinge short story where the global south is invaded by anarchist libertarian aliens (the north having wiped itself out in a nuclear exchange)... I think it was "Conquest by Default".

    A more realistic model for colonization is the United States. Where the original residents are mainly known about through archaeological evidence (aerial photography reveals the presence of large pre-Columbian cities). The "native Americans" who got crapped on and intermittently genocided by the white settlers are the post-holocaust descendants of those who survived the original viral pandemic genocide that happened when Old World diseases hit a green field and burned out of control, slaughtering about 90-95% of the population within 1-2 years.

    First Contact with any interstellar-capable aliens who happen to be compatible with our biochemistry is going to go very badly for us. As in, forget "adopting their cultural trappings and games", we'll be lucky if any of us survive as zoo animals.

    And libertarian aliens? Shudder. (Libertarians are ideologically incapable of getting their heads around public health, because public health measure deals with collective threats that affect species at a cellular level, which denies the relevance of individuality, and libertarians are all about their precious individuality -- and it's freedom -- above any other consideration.)

    304:

    Graham's comment sounds right

    But in the short term, fantasy RPGs will be trapped in Uncanny Valley as too close to reality but not properly accurate.

    Not sure if escapsism is the main driver of RPG players, but a certain kind of what-if is in my experience important for game sessions. With gods and magic suddenly A Thing in the Laundryverse I guess that some (many?) RPG gamers will react with a low fantasy setting: More based along the lines of the actual middle age (from a contemporay POV - it's still a game, I'm not talking about the subgenre of ultra-realism) with less (if at all) magic and mythical creatures. How to explore unicorns as fun pastime when they exist and aren't nice at all?

    305:

    "An app, to roll up a character? Why?"

    Not to roll up a character*, to run the character in play. You have the sheet in a free floating window and when you need to make a STR save or attack with a missile weapon or whatever - you click on the relevant bit of the sheet, the Roll20 macros fire and the results get dumped out to the built-in chat log for everyone to see.

    It's pretty smooth, provided you are playing a game where someone has spent some time building the sheets. For D&D 5e that's not a problem, but if you're playing something else then you are the mercy of whether someone else in the community of players for that game has written something you can use (or else you get stuck in and become that someone for later groups).

    Regards Luke

    [*] Although they do exist also. Fight Club is popular with players in my group. They like it because it integrates material from a bunch of different D&D source-books so it cut down what they needed to have in their bags at the gaming table (back when we got together in meatspace).

    306:

    "First Contact with any interstellar-capable aliens who happen to be compatible with our biochemistry is going to go very badly for us."

    Heh, in the canon background for Traveller first contact went exactly the other way - the Ziru Sirka (trans. The Great Star Empire), which was set up by descendents of archaic humans who were abducted to be slaves by an ancient precursor race, encountered the biotic cess pool that was Terra and was promptly hit by several hundred thousand years worth of co-evolved disease organisms; triggering a number of interlinked crises that did for them.

    The Terrans ended up taking over for a while, but it didn't last - that phase of history was called the Second Imperium (if being polite) or, more commonly, the Ramshackle Empire. Then there was an Asimov-esque long night for a few centuries before the Third Imperium got going.

    The Third Imperium is the 'big empire on whose frontier the game happens' of the setting.

    Regards Luke

    307:

    I'm not convinced it's real, but still... nice First Law reference at the beginning there.

    One might then also add "A police officer must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law" and "A police officer must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law". Might take a bit of working out but it probably wouldn't be too bad an idea.

    308:

    Also, about the D&D: my view is not from England, but from Finland, and only a small portion of the tabletop RPG scene here (there are a lot of people who just get together and play), and on the Internet I mostly see North American players writing or talking how they play.

    The D&D 5e is better, in my view, in many ways than AD&D. It still has many of the old problems, starting with the alignment. What does it mean to be 'good' or 'evil'? It also goes pretty well into the racism with the 'enemy' 'races' (hey, it's in the name already...), and doesn't really talk about are the orcs always evil, and what does that mean. The 4e was much more of a board game or even a (massively) multiplayer computer RPG than the 5e, though.

    Of course many people would say that it's just a game, and you can do a lot of things with it other than aptly-named 'murder-hoboing,' but much of the published game material which I have read is about people being good at hurting other beings and taking their stuff, and doing basically just that. Also many, but not all, of the abilities of the characters are meant for dungeoneering and dragoneering.

    There's some discussion on the internet about this, and most recently a series on Youtube about dissecting the AD&D 1e Oriental Adventures book has made me think a lot of these issues. If I'll run D&D 5e again, I'll make changes, for example ditching most of the alignment system and trying to figure out a reason for the characters to do also other stuff.

    Or course the roleplaying games have evolved during the last 35 years since AD&D 1e, and though not all of them are good, there are better games than D&D if you want to run something else than going into dangerous areas, kill what there is and take their stuff. Still, Traveller was a diversion - it mostly is anything but doing that, and is over 40 years old by now.

    However, D&D seems to have degenerated at some point. The 3.x versions apparently did a lot work for 'encounter economics' where the DM was supposed to generate encounters which challenge the characters but not be too hard. D&D 5e has this also, but for example the old D&D, back when there was a distinction between that and AD&D, had a lot more of the mentality 'you don't have to kill the monsters to win,' even in the published material than in the later versions.

    Well, yeah, I collect RPGs and occasionally try to play them, too...

    309:

    If you want an alternative to Google Maps, there's Openstreetmap: https://www.openstreetmap.org/

    310:

    Whilst reading a VERY interesting book.

    ["Parting Shots" by Matthew Paris & Andrew Bevan / Penguin/Viking 2010, ISBN 978-0-670*91928-4 ] I came across this factual commentary.

    The Trucial States ( Now the UAE + Dubai ) were British Protectorates, established by a series of peace treaties in the 19th Century. ( Imposed as a response to piracy in the Gulf area ) … … As well as playing kingmaker (British) Political Agents often had full legal jurisdiction over non-muslims in the area. The Indian penal/civil codes were imported for the purpose. Most strikingly of all, British envoys had the power to free slaves. Slavery had been abolished in much of the region, but was still practised in conservative enclaves. In Oman, any slave who touched the flag pole in the British compound, won their freedom, and in the 1950’s the political agent there was still freeing more than a dozen a year. Slavery was finally abolished in Oman in 1970, seven years after Dubai.

    Maybe somoene should tell the more idiot of the protestors?

    311:

    Alas, I didn't, until you pointed it out. I really must make myself familiar with his work - where would you reccomend I begin and what background works would you reccomend?

    Ironically, one of my favourite quotes is from Life of Gaileo: Unhappy is the land that needs heros.

    312:

    "the Ziru Sirka (trans. The Great Star Empire), which was set up by descendents of archaic humans who were abducted to be slaves by an ancient precursor race, encountered the biotic cess pool that was Terra and was promptly hit by several hundred thousand years worth of co-evolved disease organisms; triggering a number of interlinked crises that did for them."

    If there are 'several hundred thousand years worth of co-evolved disease organisms' and a reasonably large population pool on the abducted human population, things should go both ways.

    Also, if the tech levels were up to commercial interstellar space flight, the countermeasures should be extremely good.

    313:

    In my day job I interact with police on a 'several times a month' basis, often in the 'I hope they get here soon' mode. (I work in a homeless shelter). Most of my interactions have been positive and I've been glad they arrived. Where our interactions were not positive was when the confidentiality requirements of my job meant that I could not give the the information they wanted (i.e. where is that person, is he in the shelter?)

    I can mostly speak to experience with the RCMP. I know that most RCMP need to have at least a Bachelor's degree to have a chance of getting on the force, and I know several with more education who have not been hired. Not that an education solves everything, but I believe it does help reduce (not eliminate) the risk of fascist inclinations.

    There is definitely a history of colonialist violence in the RCMP, and the issues of structural and systemic racism in policing apply. But the individual officers I routinely interact with have been quite excellent at de-escalating some extremely hazardous situations. I've only seen one arrest where they were somewhat rough, and that was a fellow who had just assaulted my coworker unprovoked, and he was clearly an ongoing threat to the police (and me) as well. My sympathy was limited, though I was very aware that it happened in view of our security cameras.

    314:

    David L @ 187: You might try using multiple browsers. Since each one has separate cookies and counters, you may find that you can read your WaPo limit in each one. I currently have Chrome, Firefox and Vivaldi installed on Windows. Another possibility would be to create a VirtualBox Linux VM with browsers installed and create a copy to use weeekly, wiping out all of the cookies, fonts and other stuff loaded by your browsing activity. Right now, I'm still working, so I'm using subscriptions but I've seen these methods work.

    315:

    Autarch @ 309: If you want an alternative to Google Maps, there's Openstreetmap:
    https://www.openstreetmap.org/

    But apparently NOT a less intrusive alternative. It wants me to sign up and log in, something I don't have to do to use Google Maps.

    316:

    RockyTom @ 314: David L @ 187: You might try using multiple browsers. Since each one has separate cookies and counters, you may find that you can read your WaPo limit in each one. I currently have Chrome, Firefox and Vivaldi installed on Windows. Another possibility would be to create a VirtualBox Linux VM with browsers installed and create a copy to use weeekly, wiping out all of the cookies, fonts and other stuff loaded by your browsing activity. Right now, I'm still working, so I'm using subscriptions but I've seen these methods work.

    The problem with the Washington Post's stupid paywall is NOT the paywall, it's the STUPID. It keeps telling me I have to turn off my nonexistent Ad Blocker software.

    How am I supposed to turn off something I don't have? I am NOT going to turn off my anti-virus and anti-MALware protection; especially I'm not going to do it for the Washington Post.

    317:

    David L @ 125: PS: Reagan's military spending was in line with Carter's plans. Carter just didn't brag about it.

    Clinton was excoriated for the cuts his administration proposed for the defense budget. Particularly critical was Dick Cheney during his time with The Project for the New American Century.

    The irony is that Clinton's "plans" to cut the defense budget were left over from the previous George HW Bush administration (remember the "peace dividend" we were supposed to get after the Berlin Wall came down & the Soviet Union collapsed?)

    Cheney was George HW Bush's Secretary of Defense who formulated those plans.

    318:

    You might try using multiple browsers. Since each one has separate cookies and counters, .... Right now, I'm still working, so I'm using subscriptions but I've seen these methods work.

    Been way down that path. But after a while (not a long while either) it gets old. So I watch for sales on the subs of things I read and sign up. I own a few domains and email hostings so multiple email addresses isn't hard. :)

    319:

    It is a well and long established tradition in the US Presidency for the current administration to complain about the previous administration doing exactly what the current one is planning to do.

    320:

    So you got a toxic brew of patients coming off their meds because (a) they didn't like the side-effects and (b) they couldn't afford them because (c) they couldn't hold down a job with medical benefits if they kept coming off their meds but (d) if they were on their meds they were basket cases.

    Just saw this. (It's about US medical system.) Actually mostly those people got their meds for free. (Medicaid) But they had to show up and sign papers periodically and check in with a doctor or clinic and/or such and they couldn't even do that. Especially with taking the meds being volutary. (Major court fights on this last point but the voluntary won.)

    321:

    Then the book was wrong

    I don't doubt it - but I wasn't going to argue too hard with an seven-year-old about the rules of heraldry, while he was determined to dress as Sir Gadabout, The Worst Knight in the Land....

    He liked the colours ;)

    322:

    Seriously, second and subsequent generation neuroleptics were much better, but the first-generation antipsychotics were horrible things. Chlorpromazine wasn't nicknamed "the liquid cosh" for nothing, and that was one of the less bad options. Tardive dyskinesia is a really unpleasant side-effect, and it's bad enough that dosing sufferers with botulinum toxin seems like a reasonable palliative treatment ...

    323:

    From our p.o.v. the US "system" of so-called "policing" is wierd & scary...

    Remember the "individual right to bear arms" interpretation of the 2nd Amendment--an interpretation now codified in jurisprudence by the Supreme Court in the Heller decision--and extrapolate the ripple effects. Militarized American law enforcement is the result of a long-running, mutually reinforcing feedback loop with violent crime. Demilitarizing the police requires demilitarizing, and disarming, society by repealing the 2nd Amendment. Short of that, any attempts at "defunding the police" will die as soon as the crime rate spikes and public opinion swings back toward being "tough on crime" i.e. Finneagan begin-again.

    The underlying, tectonic level problem is that the U.S. has become too culturally fragmented to function. There's no common narrative of American identity or values anymore. Multicultural societies can only function to the extent that the values and perceived interests of their constituent factions overlap. In the U.S., that overlap is gone. Indeed, the values and perceived interests of several factions are now mutually exclusive which, in turn, means political outcomes will be increasingly decided by raw power politics. Thus, the most powerful faction will dictate the status quo to the rest.

    Breaking that cycle requires restoration of a common national narrative and a political leader charismatic enough with sufficient mass appeal to sell that narrative. At present, no such narrative and no such leader exist.

    324:

    Problem is if the meds are voluntary lots of people will skip out on them at times for various reasons. Intentional or not. And if you've got Schizophrenia and such and not taking meds for a short while, many times that puts you into a mindset of continuing to not take them. And not trust people who suggest/order you should.

    The entire system if out of whack with reality.

    How does the UK or other countries deal with these situations. Is there a forced component to any of it?

    325:

    Always chaotic evil is a known trope to be avoided and these days having canonically evil races is mostly long gone in modern games - though some of the reprints of CoC and Runequest have stuff that's a bit dodgy these days

    And how would you define societies in RPG's that make use of slaves eg Drow or say Cheliax in Pathfinder - Cheliex as a society/state is IMHNHO an evil society.

    DnD 5th is a bit railroady and has less customisation its also a bit OP at lower levels I think Charlie is going to be " I can do that much damage at L1!"

    326:

    I'd suggest that there's a variant of the "Zoo Hypothesis" that explains why we don't see aliens, except maybe when they're doing fast recon: or when we develop starflight on our own.

    Call it the Mote In God's Eye hypothesis. It's been done several times in SFF, but that's the most famous example I can think of (actually, I believe the Kzin were another example as was Footfall. So maybe this should be called the Niven Hazard?)

    Basically, unless you've got momentously superior tech and a huge invasion fleet, invading a planet inhabited by a civilized species is dangerous and unprofitable. At the worst, it may turn out they're better than you are, in which case, by landing starships on their planet, you've given the the keys to the stars and a reasonable chance of beating you, and every reason to try.

    At best, if there's a civilization, they're probably in the midst of consuming all the good resources, so you won't have lots of raw resources lying around to easily mine, and will have to trade with them instead. It's likely easier to land on an untapped world and loot it for what you need (oil gushing from terrestrial wells, rather than fracked or sucked from deep underwater, etc.), rather than dealing with a planet that it's been looted for millennia, where all the high grade resources have been exploited.

    Plus, if you believe that Earth is a normal world, it takes 4,500,000,000-5,500,000,000 years of a world's history (call it US 5 billion years) to develop a civilization. And if our civilization is normal, said civilization may well crash in 1000 years or less. So of the Earth-like planets you encounter, about 4,999,999,000/5,000,000,000 won't host a civilization. Even if you weed out the 80% of terrestrial worlds that only host bacteria (assuming you can't mine them, which you probably could--and this is from the 80% of Earth's history that was in the Archean), civilized planets, for human values of civilized, are likely rare among the planets you encounter.

    So why go to all the trouble of conquering a civilized world? It's simply not worth the cost. Monitoring them discretely is worth the trouble, especially if you have FTL, because that will give you warning if they figure out FTL on their own, at which point you've got to deal with them. Until that point, you're better off leaving them caged by their own ignorance on their own planet, while you loot develop less dangerous planets elsewhere in the galaxy to your hearts' content.

    327:

    Please don't get me wrong, I accept that real reality has a left-leaning bias, but what if reality had a right-leaning bias? In Tolkien's middle earth for example, the rightful king not being in charge disrupts the natural order -- it has physical consequences.

    The Laundryverse seems to have a physics that aids authoritarians, because it's possible to impose hierarchical command structures that are physically inescapable. As humans discover this they naturally fall into making use of it, except when they make a principled choice not to.

    If what's in store in the Laundryverse resembles the colonization of the Americas, gee. I'm curious to read a novel-length Stross story with that level of grim-dark on center stage, but gee.

    328:

    Er, is that actually 120 feet in six seconds? Or in sixty?

    329:

    "If what's in store in the Laundryverse resembles the colonization of the Americas, gee. I'm curious to read a novel-length Stross story with that level of grim-dark on center stage, but gee."

    Unless I'm misreading it (quite possible), that level of casualties is what the subverted Black Chamber has in store for the USA in the Laundryverse, because they will be expending much of the USA's population of human computational units in their attempt to summon Big Sir.

    330:

    Just struck me: I very, very rarely open the paper. I'm reading collected news - google news, Daily Kos, people's cmts, etc, and go directly to the article. IIRC, I do not have the WaPo ok'd in noScript, and I've never gotten a paywall note.

    331:

    I do not have the WaPo ok'd in noScript, and I've never gotten a paywall note.

    I think they and a few other major US newspapers have timers. 4 articles per week or month or similar. So if it don't go there often you don't hit the wall. And some let you in more often if you are coming from a link in places like Google news as it promotes them higher in Google news so it's sort of kind of marketing.

    332:

    Eh? I use OpenStreetMap and I've never had to sign in.

    They do, quite reasonably, want you to sign in to edit anything, but as you can't do that at all in Google Maps, that's not an issue.

    JHomes

    333:

    Doesn't hit me, and I know I see more than 10 articles/mo. The NYT paywall does, even going from google news.

    Note that it does not block Krugman's opinion page, presumably because they're not paying him to write it.

    334:

    JBS @ 316: If you install VirtualBox on Windows and create a VM using your choice of Linux distro, you can have FireFox and Chromium and maybe other browsers. If you don't share host directories, your VM is, in theory, separate from your Windows machine and you don't have to worry about it complaining about anti-virus and anti-spyware. Using a copy of the VM and throwing it away once a week gets rid of lice, ticks and alternate cookies schemes like fingerprints and invisible Flash files. It's a bit of a hassle, I admit. I do something similar for connecting to banks and other sensitive sites, using a VM that I don't do any other browsing from.

    335:

    No metal on metal or color on color is a rule of the folks currently in charge of UK heraldry. Historically there are exceptions, such as the Papal flag (yellow & white) and the Albanian flag ( red & black.)

    336:

    I suspect that the reason we dont see any aliens is that interstellar space travel is impractical combined with there being only a brief window in which we leak enough radio signals to be detectable.

    Notice how we are going to smaller and smaller transmitters with directional antennas to maximize what we can do with the limited bandwidth physics provides us. Cellular, wifi etc. Eventually everything is point to point wireless links and cables or fiber optics between them. Anything you leak interferes with something nearby and reduces the amount of spectrum thats usable because you will interfere with somebody else's signal. At that point your civilization is no longer detectable. We've been leaking signals for around 100 years. Figure at the most, another 100 of leaking left.

    So if you dont have a pretty advanced radio telescope pointed at a civilizations star during that brief 200 year window as the signals reach you , you will never know they were there. And you probably have to pick up the leakage because , at least the smart ones, wont risk saying hello.

    337:

    Yellow and white would be a metal (gold) and a color.

    338:

    Another alternative on Windows is sandboxie, which I use occasionally for sandboxing a browser on Windows. (Mostly I use Linux and other tools.). Almost certainly not as secure as a VM for sandboxing (though maybe less targeted by adversaries), but plenty good enough for browsing with tracker/counter forgetting after closure. There are still binaries available at https://www.sandboxie.com/DownloadSandboxie though they've just moved to open source at https://github.com/sandboxie (Haven't looked at the source, other than the build instructions which look to be annoying unless one develops windows applications.)

    339:

    Much of fantasy is about nostalgia for the way things weren't.

    Tolkeinesque fantasy is an anti-technology romance about a non-existent past where you didn't need giant factories, huge corporations, technology that relied on huge logistic chains and inter-connected economies. Back when heroes were real heroes!

    There are other related genres - Westerns as movies are again about an imagined past,and Country and Western music is a related romance about a non-existant US rural past (it and Blues diverged about a hundred years ago partly because black Americans in the 1920s were not nostalgic about some imagined good 'ole days).

    Under the New Management, playing AD&D will be a nostalgia kick. Just a Steampunk is an unrealistic "how technology should have been!", AD&D will be "how magic should have been!". That will mean some changes to make it less realistic. So for example, modern AD&D editions introduced a Warlock class that gets magic via a compact with some fell demonic beast - my guess is AD&D would remove than class.

    340:

    I've argued before that it's not necessarily impractical, but rather how much in the way of resources are you willing to spend on exploration?

    When we've expanded into the solar system, and if/when we come up with an FTL drive, we'll look at a lot of nearby systems, and go to ones that are attractive...but at some point, we'll be maxed out. Remember, overwhelmingly, most ocean travel for millenia was not exploration, but from known ports to known ports.

    In my future universe, over the next few thousand years, we expand to cover maybe a 4k LY. There are tons of viable planets, and resources, and humans are just not going back to having a dozen kids per woman, just so we can Colonize The Universe.

    341:

    at some point, we'll be maxed out

    For all the bullshit about colonizing Mars there's empty, unclaimed land right here that is a damn sight more hospitable than anything we're likely to find off planet. Yet somehow people are not saying "oooh, like Mars but you can breathe the air, and it's much warmer and there's more insolation" and the million other things that will kill people stupid enough to visit Mars.

    About the only thing Mars has going for it is a lack of political problems. Which situation will last, at best, until the second colonist arrives.

    342:

    not going back to ... just so we can Colonize The Universe.

    The list of things that we're not willing to do just so we roam and be free is fricking enormous. Despite the intense propaganda efforts within the USA even the resulting 300M "rugged individuals" very rarely travel out of sight of a Starbucks for any longer than they have to. You have a whole pile of vicarious pioneer stuff going on, and about four ghost ships worth of actual pioneering. And most of that is "anywhere that has cellphone reception and access to the electricity grid" style, rather than boldly setting out to feed the bears in Alaska, Tennassee where the land is cheap or something more organised like 100,000 of you move to Wyoming and take over democratically.

    The same happens with Pacific Islands or even the more accessible parts of Australia. You can buy a farm for a dollar but the reason it costs that is because not even idiots think it's a good idea.

    343:

    I'm actually having a lot of fun right now playing with a story line that starts off as "the super-rich get their hands on an FTL drive and settle Proxima Centauri." And I'm not an apologist for the rights of the plutocrats. But as a fantasy setting with built-in class struggles, it ain't bad. Plus I figured out some really cool ecological details for a biosphere orbiting a flaring red dwarf.

    Otherwise, of course, I agree with you. If Muskypoo was serious about settling Mars, he'd be cranking out cost-effective shipping container farms that could be distributed by the thousands to refugee camps in Bangladesh and Jordan (among others) to feed large numbers of people from ludicrously small spaces for real cheap. And I'd be reasonably impressed if the Seasteaders (for example) started building domed cities on Baffin Island or the Antarctic peninsula. Or the middle of the Atacama or Sahara. Or on closed hazmat sites in central Russia.

    344:

    That PEX thing - Central heating - no idea. It’s not a thing to have hot water based radiator heating anywhere I’ve lived since ‘91. One would have to consult code. Joint obstruction/turbulence - well, it works very well in practice and sizing is the solution. Use suitable sized pipe and it works. Consult IRC or your local code compliance officials. Hey, I bet you could make an RPG about building a house an arguing with planning departments, code officials, suppliers, contractors, buyers...

    345:

    Had a complete central heating system replumbed in flexible plastic pipe, around 25 years ago. The plumbers added short stubs of copper pipe for the last few inches to the radiator valves, for appearance. Otherwise all plastic. This was for a system with an instant on-demand hot water boiler, no immersion heater or storage tank, and mild positive pressure not gravity fed from a header tank.

    346:

    Paul Harrison Well, in "communist" countries, reality did have a right-leaning bias, didn't it? WHich taken in combination with our present situation, should tell us/you something. [ Like pay attention to facts, not opinions, maybe. ]

    icehawk The Numenoreans had a technology at least as good as that of the 1960's .... Um.

    Dark Blue Are you in the UK, or elsewhere? Because that would be an instant solution for my problem - & any future ones that show up, too. ( I have a small header tank in the loft, but that is not "mains" pressure, of course. )

    347:

    Anyone trying to settle Bir Tawil is going to be @#$%^ in the #$^ by Egypt and Sudan simultaneously in a rare display of international solidarity.

    348:

    Elon Musks vision of colonizing Mars is totally consistent with most distopian future visions of what its like to live on Mars,when you take into account that there's no way Elon Musk would not set him self up as the Emperor Of The Red Planet

    349:

    Look, regardless of what you think of Elon Musk as a person, they very thing he tries to achieve, namely cheap space travel, will preclude him from being an Emperor of Mars. Other companies and states will copy SpaceX technology (which is easier than developing it from scratch), and there's no legal framework by which Elon can get exclusivity on the use of Mars.

    350:

    The Numenoreans had a technology at least as good as that of the 1960's .... Um.

    Only in earlier versions of Numenor. Tolkien had the idea of "Atlantis with lost technology" but down-scaled it later. More likely, Numenor just had a superior bureaucracy and organization, which allowed it to pursue large scale building and infrastructure projects. Not very different from Roman Empire in this regard.

    351:

    Remember the "individual right to bear arms" interpretation of the 2nd Amendment...and extrapolate the ripple effects.

    An interpretation pushed hard by the NRA, since it was cored out and repurposed as a lobbying arm of the gun manufacturers during the 1970s.

    The "simplest" solution isn't to repeal the 2A, but to add one word, disambiguating it so that it specifically gives the right to bear arms to state militias, i.e. the National Guard.

    The underlying, tectonic level problem is that the U.S. has become too culturally fragmented to function. There's no common narrative of American identity or values anymore.

    It depends what you mean by "function"; the USA probably has a much stronger, more cohesive narrative of common identity than, say, disparate bits of the EU. (Quick, tell me what Greece has in common with Ireland!) At least the USA has an almost-universal language, and a second large-minority language that overlaps with many speakers of the first and almost all of its non-speakers: if you've got English and some Spanish, or vice versa, you've got 99% coverage.

    Arguably what the USA needs is to be decentralized, along the lines of the EU, with some common core stuff (the bill of rights, a common defense force, a common overseas diplomatic/trade policy), internal free movement and free trade, but otherwise greater regional autonomy.

    352:

    How does the UK or other countries deal with these situations. Is there a forced component to any of it?

    The UK deals with it even worse than the USA -- mental health services were never great and are currently a smoking crater after a decade of de-funding and neglect by the Conservatives.

    The silver lining is that although the UK incarcerates more prisoners than any other country in Europe, including Turkey, it hasn't full-on copied the USA: there are a few privately-run prisons subcontracting to the Home Office, but none run as essentially slave farms, and we're still imprisoning less than a tenth as many of our population per capita as the USA. But yes, about 50% of folks in British prisons suffer from mental illness of some description, and most of the rest are illiterate/innumerate/unable to function in a complex society (read: can't fill out job applications, can't fill out forms for the benefits agency, end up drifting into crime because it's easier).

    353:

    If what's in store in the Laundryverse resembles the colonization of the Americas, gee. I'm curious to read a novel-length Stross story with that level of grim-dark on center stage, but gee.

    I'm not going there with the Laundryverse. (More like the cliff-hanger at the end of "The Italian Job".)

    354:

    I do not have the WaPo ok'd in noScript, and I've never gotten a paywall note.

    It's not a paywall note, it's blocking of entire networks because users of those networks are in nations covered by the EU's GDPR which makes the WaPost's sleazy and intrusive advertising practices illegal.

    355:

    I suspect that the reason we dont see any aliens is that interstellar space travel is impractical combined with there being only a brief window in which we leak enough radio signals to be detectable.

    That assumes radio detection is a useful SETI strategy.

    We're now at the point where we can identify thousands of exoplanets, even though putting telescopes in space is still in its infancy (there's going to be an explosion of them in 10-20 years' time if reusable/cheap commercial space access becomes widespread, as seems likely). Short of building larger imaging surfaces that can directly view continent-sized land masses (that's still a decade or two away) being able to do atmospheric spectroscopy of terrestrial planets is an option. If you spot oxygen in the atmosphere of a water world or an earthlike world in the triple point zone around a star small/cool enough for evolution to have time to get off the ground? That's not stable: it means it's probably a by-product of life.

    If your spectrophotometer detects chloroflurocarbons in the ozone layer, you've almost certainly got air conditioning, never mind life!

    Go a bit further out: if you point telescopes at a land mass on such a planet (having first confirmed an unstable atmosphere) and detect light patterns during its nighttime period that are inconsistent with lightning or forest fires, you've quite possible got cities.

    And all bets are off if your imaging system is the phased-array eyeball you end up with if you build a Matrioshka brain -- a light-gathering surface roughly 1 astronomical unit in radius (so, 300 gigameters in diameter). It's probably able to read newspaper headlines at a thousand parsecs ...

    356:

    Yet more UK COVID stats, I am afraid. This explains why the experts have been banished from briefings - they are not prepared to support the gummint's claim that it is safe to relax lockdown. While the official figures indicate a continuing drop, the other data looks far more as if it has merely leveled off.

    https://imgur.com/a/fN6U3YL https://imgur.com/a/zyBGUlF

    While Scotland is somewhat insulated from England, it's not separate; things should clarify by the end of the month. I am expecting the start of a second, smaller and more spread out, peak.

    357:

    An improved version of the second graph:

    https://imgur.com/a/hUg5pTX

    358:

    Using a copy of the VM and throwing it away once a week gets rid of lice, ticks and alternate cookies schemes like fingerprints and invisible Flash files.

    If it works for you, great. For those of us with 2 or 3 daily use computers (for whatever reason) using disposable VMs and all the constant 2FA for each new instance can get old quickly.

    To each their own.

    359:

    About the only thing Mars has going for it is a lack of political problems. Which situation will last, at best, until the second colonist arrives.

    Yes. It's the problem of home churches. They are always dividing once they grow to more than a few families. The reason for their existence to to get away from the corrupted institutional churches. Their failing is that the people involved don't seem to see that they really don't have a common vision for what the "non institutional" church should look like.

    No difference between these and the political utopian libertarians.

    360:

    TBH, I'd cut the Gordian knot, and run something narritivist, vis a vis TTRPG. Less liable to produce something mathematically dangerous and, frankly, there's a lot of much better systems then D&D out there, which is a goddamn dinosaur of the highest order at best of times.

    361:

    Tennassee

    After fixing the spelling [grin] you'll find that Memphis and Nashville are as cosmopolitan as most any other major city in the world. Their reputation for being county bumpkin spots came about for a reason but at the end of the day they are modern big cities. And after you toss in Knoxville you're never more than a 2 to 3 hour drive from any of them.

    Their politics, like a lot of other similar places in the US, are currently driven by their rural areas but demographics and urban to rural are switching that much to the consternation of the existing power bases.

    362:

    Had a complete central heating system replumbed in flexible plastic pipe

    What you describe is the way more and more housing in the US is going. I've starting doing all my repairs this way.

    363:

    Re: 'We've been leaking signals for around 100 years.'

    Okay - however doesn't this assume that aliens would first have to know which types of signals/radio bursts are 'natural' and which aren't? Every once in a while there's a headline about some new type of solar or interstellar, cosmic signal/activity that's just been detected. Such newly discovered signals usually result in scientists re-examining the current narrative of how bits of 'known' theory are strung together. Here's a recent example with the potential of changing the current best-guess narrative as to the 'evolution' of stars:

    'Astronomers discover new class of cosmic explosions Blasts differ from 'ordinary' supernovae, gamma-ray bursts'

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200526161131.htm

    Also, I wonder how much of our civilization's noise is blocked/dampened by solar activity. Earth is tiny, our star is on the small side and both are in a fairly large galaxy.

    364:

    Thanks for the overview.

    My question: Is there a forced component to any of it?

    was about forcing those with severe metal illnesses to take their meds. Is that done in the UK or is it a voluntary thing. Which in many cases can lead to the eventual incarceration?

    365:

    Re: ' ... "non institutional" church should look like.'

    Isn't Lutheranism supposed to be the model for this where every person is free to interpret the Bible as long as such interpretations incorporate a few basic tenets/principals?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lutheranism

    Luther nailed his theses to the door in 1521 - 500 years ago next year. That's a pretty long time to figure out how to incorporate the notion of equality of individual freedom on one key social parameter.

    366:

    Oh if it were that simple.

    Can a woman teach a man in terms of anything related to the religion. Or at all.

    Should all heads be covered? Those of women?

    Should men and women worship in separate spaces?

    What is purpose and meaning of communion? How often. Is it OK to use grape juice instead of wine.

    Which translation (and edition) are to be allowed to be read? Tolerated? Required?

    Can you shop on Sunday? (Or Saturday if you decide that is your day.) How about mowing the yard? Changing a flat tire?

    Home church advocates tend to think everyone ELSE has it wrong and they (and only they) have the true and one and only "secret sauce".

    It even has a small sub plot story line in Garrison Keillor's Lake Wobegon stories. Which if you don't know was a part of his weekly US public radio show. In it he told a tale of the last week or so's goings on in the fictional town of Lake Wobegon. As mentioned above it was about wanting to return to a time that never existed in mid western US of the 50s and 60s. And the happy talked clothed very biting satire of such life. Ans lots of funny stories that reminded many of us of true events in our life.

    367:

    "So for example, modern AD&D editions introduced a Warlock class that gets magic via a compact with some fell demonic beast - my guess is AD&D would remove than class."

    True dat!

    Of course the RPG company that's going away instantly under the New Management is Chaosium. "All our game designers were eaten by shoggoths on the same day? How likely was that?" After which all the other RPG companies will fall in line very quickly!

    368:

    a light-gathering surface roughly 1 astronomical unit in radius (so, 300 gigameters in diameter). It's probably able to read newspaper headlines at a thousand parsecs .

    Not quite, but it could do 1 meter out to 100 light years, and that's not bad...

    r = λR/D with

    λ = 3e-7 meters (atmospheric ultraviolet cutoff) R = 100 * 9.5e15 = 9.5e17 meters D = 3e11 meters

    r = 0.95 meters

    369:

    (atmospheric ultraviolet cutoff)

    That's earth-like atmosphere at the other end, of course.

    370:

    Memphis and Nashville are as cosmopolitan

    I was going purely off land cost found via a search for "cheapest land in the US".

    371:

    Oh. I see.

    I'm betting that the large amount of near vertical rock at the eastern end mixed with a few left over strip mines is dragging down the average price of the land by quite a bit.

    Drives through the area are really beautiful but it's hard to imagine using the land for anything but scenery.

    372:

    Auricoma No In some of the background books, it's clear that the Numenoreans had post wwII tech. Though, it was, like the future, unevenly ditributed, IIRC.

    EC I'm looking at "Worldometer'" statistics - it's a very long, slowly declining tail - at the momnet, anyway.

    373:

    Yet more UK COVID stats, I am afraid. This explains why the experts have been banished from briefings - they are not prepared to support the gummint's claim that it is safe to relax lockdown.

    I expect this isn't a surprise to those on here - after all it is the same government that yesterday was claiming Brexit can be finished by July with just a bit of extra effort.

    But the government is really just following the convenient lead of the public, who with their flocking to public places now that the weather is nice have made it clear they don't want to hear about any more Covid bad news.

    Though I expect the last several days in Bejing with have made anyone interested in reality sit up and take notice - that a new apparently serious outbreak can happen that quickly in a country with as much monitoring as China likely has health experts elsewhere in the world concerned.

    Though in some good news a steriod has been found effective in treating the most serious cases of Covid with measurable (if not great) success.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-19-coronavirus-steroid-dexamethasone-1.5613706

    374:

    Apropos of nothing, I'd like to pitch out an alt-historical scenario that could be used in a steampunk or "gaslight fantasy" setting.

    Call it the "Lincoln-Albert Continuum."

    The basic idea here is that two powerful men who were involved in major social reforms died in the 1860s. Those men were, of course, Abraham Lincoln and Prince Albert, husband of Queen Victoria.

    Imagine, if you will, a world in which both men lived. Lincoln wasn't assassinated, Albert didn't die of whatever killed him. Both men lived to ripe old ages, and the monumental cultural changes they started didn't fizzle in the late 19th Century.

    Allow this heady brew to culture for 50 years. This is the new world.

    If you're lazy, you can simply take the racial politics of the 21st Century and put it on the geopolitics of the early 20th Century.

    More interestingly, you can solve some racial injustices, but probably at the cost of increasing class warfare. The early 20th Century was the time that communism and anarchism were on the rise after all. What if the poor of all races learned how to make common cause with each other, despite all efforts by the wealthy to divide them and conquer?

    Whichever route you take, build a world with this batter, season with steampunk inventions to taste, and serve up as an RPG scenario. Perhaps a rather different SPACE:1919?

    375:

    I came up with a similar idea once while I was working on a webcomic about an Elf and Orc who travelled the dimensions together. In one of the universes Lincoln was an early practitioner of economics instead of a lawyer, and he was able to sell the South on trading slavery for a better economy. In that world, James Earl Jones played Captain Kirk...

    376:

    They will be using the same data, possibly delayed, and possibly munging them in some way. The graphs I showed are as up-to-date as anything you will find unless you have a mole inside ONS, and I stand by what I said. Watch this space, in a couple of weeks' time - unless I go down with it!

    mdive makes good points, too.

    377:

    Re: 'Oh if it were that simple.'

    Ummm ... actually it's supposed to be that simple.

    The examples you cite reflect certain authoritarian asses' personal pet preferences and interpretations of what/how things should be for everyone else. In fact the more these folks insisted on imposing their personal biases on everyone else, the more they antithetical to Lutheranism they actually were. Luther's main point was that every human experienced 'God' as an individual ... in their own way.*

    Thus explaining the 10,000 plus 'Protestant Christian' sects in the US.

    • In my (RC) high school world religions class, Lutheranism and Buddhist were student faves because our common interpretation of both boiled down to: (1) don't be mean and (2) you have a right to be an individual.
    378:

    Perhaps a rather different SPACE:1919?

    I'd play that.

    379:

    Re: ' ... some good news a steriod has been found effective in treating the most serious cases of Covid'

    Yes - this is 'some' good news if the primary problem is pulmonary.

    'It reduced deaths by 35 per cent in patients who needed treatment with breathing machines and by 20 per cent in those only needing supplemental oxygen. It did not appear to help less ill patients.'

    I'm not sure how this works out overall or by various genetic susceptibility types, i.e., vascular system (incl. Kawasaki-like syndrome) and any other parts/organs with tons of ACE-2 pockets.

    381:

    Not sure about post-WW2. They had intercontinental missiles, so during-WW2, but no semiconductors, lasers or other quantum-level stuff, no computational engines, no theoretical medicine, and certainly none of the rampant gene-hacking and similar biotech that certain parties were into. And of course the guidance for such missiles is a lot easier when it's all planar and no Coriolis, so we're probably basically talking about overgrown Congreve rockets. I'd rate them as a lot closer to a naval version of the Persians or Egyptians at their peak than to Phryges and Kinnexa and pals.

    Oh yeah, they did have rigid foil sails. Popular on racing boats these days but I don't know when the idea first came up; could well have been in parallel with early aviation wing development, but it's a simple enough idea that it could have been around for centuries somewhere obscure.

    Of course they also had a seven-node long range communications network with similar functionality and security problems to early WW1 field telephones (I wonder why, hehe), but they didn't build that, it was another legacy HuaweiFeanor product with the usual dodgy firmware.

    382:

    Re: 'Yet more UK COVID stats, ...'

    Your first graph looks like there's about 50K 'excess deaths', i.e., approx. 8K more than the JHU COVID-19 Map which is based on NHS provided data. That's a pretty substantial difference.

    Serious question: How many of the excess deaths can be traced to illegal street drug usage? Every week or so there's some local news coverage mentioning increases in ODs. A few stories even say that desperate users are turning to new sources and these drugs are sometimes spiked with fentanyl. (Anyone here from BC, Canada? - That's the only region I'm aware of that has fairly extensive support for this population. How are these folks doing during COVID-19?)

    383:

    There is a Vernor Vinge short story where the global south is invaded by anarchist libertarian aliens (the north having wiped itself out in a nuclear exchange)... I think it was "Conquest by Default".
    It's notable for being a Vinge story where the libertarianism isn't seen as a totally good thing.

    (Doesn't get into the real problems with American style libertarianism, that it's actually just a thin skin over Feudalism wanabees).

    384:

    Yes - this is 'some' good news if the primary problem is pulmonary.

    Pulmonary damage -- the lungs being trashed -- seems to be the commonest single cause of death in severe COVID19. Corticosteroids are wide-spectrum immune system down-modulators, so learning that dexamethasone reduces inflammatory lung damage and increases survival rates in severe cases is unsurprising (although it's nevertheless good news to get a rigorous controlled trial supporting a cheap treatment option).

    As non-pulomnary organ damage from COVID19 also appears to be inflammatory in nature, there's some hope that dexamethasone will work there, too -- but with a smaller number of cases, it'll take longer to gather the figures.

    There's some evidence that COVID19 causes damage by causing inflammation of the vascular epithelium -- the cells lining the small blood vessels. The lungs have a lot of these, and are also the entrypoint for the virus, so get hit hard, but it may also be the mechanism for attacking other organs -- in which case dexamethasone ought to work there, too.

    This also suggests that statins may be helpful, too. I imagine that's a topic of some interest in the large-scale screening program that reported on dexamethasone.

    385:

    If you want an alternative to Google Maps, there's Openstreetmap: https://www.openstreetmap.org/
    Which can be a much better map than Google's when Google make silly fuckups importing the datasets they buy, like the time they disappeared all of the sous-prefectures in the western Ivory Coast, leaving only the larger towns and smaller villages, or where they haven't got around to mapping the new quartier in Abidjan where I have my new house, or, bizarrely, because they (Google) accept user edits with little validation and show pharmacies in entirely the wrong location.

    (No Google, I told you, the Pharmacie Val-d'Oise is not there, and the "Mache Alimentaire Corasa" (sic) simply doesn't exist).

    386:

    But radio IS how we do SETI. We may do it differently some time in the future, and at that point we may find ET under every rock. But if my supposition is correct, then its why we dont find anything now.

    387:

    But apparently NOT a less intrusive alternative. It wants me to sign up and log in, something I don't have to do to use Google Maps.
    You only have to sign up if you want to edit the map.

    388:

    The one problem I have with the dexamethasone study will hopefully resolve really fracking soon. That problem is that so far, all we've seen is the press release, not even the preprint paper. That, unfortunately, is not a good sign. Hopefully it's a PR screwup, and not a sign of other issues.

    389:

    FUBAR007 @ 323:

    From our p.o.v. the US "system" of so-called "policing" is wierd & scary...

    The underlying, tectonic level problem is that the U.S. has become too culturally fragmented to function. There's no common narrative of American identity or values anymore. Multicultural societies can only function to the extent that the values and perceived interests of their constituent factions overlap. In the U.S., that overlap is gone. Indeed, the values and perceived interests of several factions are now mutually exclusive which, in turn, means political outcomes will be increasingly decided by raw power politics. Thus, the most powerful faction will dictate the status quo to the rest.

    Sadly, I fear you are correct.

    390:

    Quick, tell me what Greece has in common with Ireland
    Christianity and a long history of being colonised by near neighbours.

    391:

    @Everyone: As of now (10:57 PDT) the USA has now exceeded the number of Military deaths in WWI (116,516) by the number of documented COVID-19 deaths (116,526).

    392:

    whitroth @ 333: Doesn't hit me, and I know I see more than 10 articles/mo. The NYT paywall does, even going from google news.

    Note that it does not block Krugman's opinion page, presumably because they're not paying him to write it.

    I don't think any of the New York Times opinion pages are behind the paywall, nor is "headline" news ... their paywall appears to me to only cover the deep stuff that would be on the inside pages & special sections in the Sunday Times. At least that's the only place I've ever encountered it.

    I'm still miffed at the NYT for their first attempt to institute a paywall back in 2003. I signed up and paid for an online subscription but when I got to Iraq, I couldn't access it. It wouldn't let me in even though I had a user ID & a password.

    And then the whole damn thing collapsed and they abandoned the paywall, announcing they would go back to the status quo ante, but they didn't refund the subscription ... and even then I still couldn't read the NYT on-line while I was in Iraq.

    So, fuck em'. Nothing I want to read is behind the New York Times paywall.

    393:

    I was pointing out that the "how will Mars be governed" is a similar problem to that of "home churches".

    As to the validity of their theology I was making no claims. Or that Luther "fixed" all the issues with the Catholic church.

    394:

    Probably only a few. The two main reasons are (a) COVID deaths that is not officially classified as such and (b) deaths due to people not being hospitalised when they needed to be. We have no idea which is larger.

    395:

    RockyTom @ 334: JBS @ 316: If you install VirtualBox on Windows and create a VM using your choice of Linux distro, you can have FireFox and Chromium and maybe other browsers. If you don't share host directories, your VM is, in theory, separate from your Windows machine and you don't have to worry about it complaining about anti-virus and anti-spyware. Using a copy of the VM and throwing it away once a week gets rid of lice, ticks and alternate cookies schemes like fingerprints and invisible Flash files. It's a bit of a hassle, I admit. I do something similar for connecting to banks and other sensitive sites, using a VM that I don't do any other browsing from.

    Yeah, I could do that ... if it wasn't more bother than I want to go through to read an occasional Washington Post article.

    I don't use the Chrome browser. Almost every complaint I have about Firefox relates to ways in which it attempts to look & feel like Chrome. I mainly use two browsers Firefox & Pale Moon (a Mozilla browser that split off from Firefox about the time Firefox's developers started to make it more "Chrome like". I have No-Script installed on Pale Moon and I only use Firefox for those sites, like Charlie's blog, where I haven't figured out how to make them work with No-Script - note I'm not saying it won't work with No-Script, I just haven't figured out how to do it.

    I also have a fairly ragged copy of Micro$oft's Internet Exploder for one U.S. Government site that won't accept anything else. Fortunately, I only have to log in there a couple of times a year.

    If something is important enough that I feel I must read it, I can often find those Washington Post articles syndicated to other newspapers where it won't be behind a paywall.

    396:

    Genarally ... anti-inflammtories seem to at the very least, damp down & suppress the worst effects of C-19. Previous comments referring to Ibuprofen come to mind. Plus taking vit-D supplements. Not going near statins with someone else's thank you.

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Oh yes - adding to my own historical comment @ # 310 If people are exited about slavery, rather than going after figures who are 200 years dead ... then why are they not demonstrating outside the Saudi & especially the PRC's embassies? In the case of the PRC, they are holding two entire enthic groupings in servitude: The Tibetans & the Uighurs. Um.

    397:

    Trust me, you won't like the society they create.

    Me? Writing that short where they escape? Writing what it's like, almost 800 years later?

    Nahhhhh....

    398:

    "What the US needs is decentralized"...

    shudder

    No. REALLY NO. That's how you get the century of Jim Crow South. And how they're state-by-state trying to kill abortion rights, and trust me, any form of birth control is next.

    399:

    What we need is a serious wall between church and state. As in, start with "you pay taxes like any other organization".

    And explain to us why a church needs a golf course....

    400:

    There's more significant questions, such as "who's listening right now to those bands?"

    My take has always been that you have to have a civilization, that's into tech, and is at *our tech level, +/- 150 yrs. Before, they can't hear it, after, perhaps if there's the equivalent of ham radio operators still using morse code....

    One "didn't happen" - the comet that did the dinosaurs, an ice age that ended sooner, or later, and they're 10 million years earlier than us, or beyond us.

    Given the number of planets and stars, yeah, maybe 200 civilizations in the galaxy in that sweet spot.

    401:

    Charlie Stross @ 351: The "simplest" solution isn't to repeal the 2A, but to add one word, disambiguating it so that it specifically gives the right to bear arms to state militias, i.e. the National Guard.

    It's already unambiguous. Only stupid, selfish assholes argue that the placement of commas changes the meaning of the whole. And if you were able to examine the original, hand-written copies of the Bill or Rights, you'd find that the commas wander all over the place or even disappear completely.

    Arguably what the USA needs is to be decentralized, along the lines of the EU, with some common core stuff (the bill of rights, a common defense force, a common overseas diplomatic/trade policy), internal free movement and free trade, but otherwise greater regional autonomy.

    That's pretty close to the original intent behind the U.S. Constitution. Under the Articles of Confederation, the United States government proved to be too weak to handle the common stuff in the face of conflicting regional interests. The founders wanted to keep the national army small, but there was no way to call up the state militias when military force was needed, nor was there a way to force the militia in one state to come to the defense of another state, so if there was an insurrection that was beyond the ability of New York's state government to handle with New York's resources, there was no mechanism for the central government to utilize militia's from Connecticut, Pennsylvania or Maryland ... to assist New York. All New York could do was to beg the other states for assistance, which might or might not be provided.

    I guess it's time again for my favorite blockquote:

    "We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."

    In fact, the Second Amendment is not a grant of individual rights, it's a grant of STATES RIGHTS, a guarantee that Article 1, Section 8, Paragraph 16 of the Constitution will not be used to abolish state militias ... "the people" being plural, not singular.

    402:

    "And explain to us why a church needs a golf course...."

    Golf is a devotional activity. Just listen to the golfers. They keep saying things like "God, this hole is difficult" and "Jesus, how did I miss that?"

    403:

    Heteromeles @ 374: Imagine, if you will, a world in which both men lived. Lincoln wasn't assassinated, Albert didn't die of whatever killed him.

    I think he suffocated after they put him in that can.

    404:

    John Hughes @ 387:

    But apparently NOT a less intrusive alternative. It wants me to sign up and log in, something I don't have to do to use Google Maps.

    You only have to sign up if you want to edit the map.

    What if I only want to get rid of the "unobtrusive" Welcome to OpenStreetMap [Learn More] [Start Mapping] advertising box that takes up 1/3 of the window?

    405:

    A year or so ago, I went looking for information on 18th century grammar. What I found was Johnson's dictionary, the first of English. ALL the Founding Fathers would have been familiar with it.

    And in it, he uses commas to delineate PAUSES, as when speaking, not clauses.

    The NRA, in their building (it should be blown up) have the 2nd Amendment... MINUS those first words.

    406:

    I'll bet none of them want to learn the lesson of the old joke....

    Pastor goes golfing on a Sunday. St. Pete mentions this to God. God looks down, and makes sure the pastor gets a hole in one. St. Pete is aghast. "Why'd you do that?" God smiles. "Who's he going to tell?"

    407:

    The NRA, in their building (it should be blown up) have the 2nd Amendment... MINUS those first words.

    Actually, this does lead to a fairly important point: what happens if the NRA leadership suffers a, erm, catastrophic omnigonadecotomy (metaphorically speaking) and loses its current political mojo?

    It's an interesting question, because the vaunted political strategy of "do what we want or white male lone wolves will spray innocents with bullets" is failing rather badly right now.

    I mean, uppity black people* are marching in the street and gaining political victory after political victory without a single gun in sight, while guys packing heat and not masks looked like idiots just two weeks before and didn't accomplish much of anything. Nor have a spate of police violence, lynchings, and random shootings done anything to stop the BLM protests, to the point where cops are even (gasp!) immediately arresting white guys shooting at blacks.

    And the NRA is kind of falling apart, canceling events, fundraisers, and political actions. It'll be terrible for them if it turns out nonviolence is the way to political change, and fearmongering with phallic gunnery is increasingly less effective.

    So if the NRA falls, how long will the 2nd Amendment continue to be interpreted as it is today? Inquiring minds really do want to know.

    *Uppity black people? Yes, we very definitely need more of them. Black lives matter. (/no sarcasm).

    408:

    As I recall the old joke, the hole-in-one happened in some ridiculous fashion. As I heard it (and I'm sure there are variations) the ball bounced from tree-to-tree, then was eaten by a bear that crapped it into the hole - and God asked, "who can he tell?"

    409:

    So if the NRA falls, how long will the 2nd Amendment continue to be interpreted as it is today? Inquiring minds really do want to know.

    Depends in part on November - you need to change the Supreme Court before any more sane laws that might get passed would survive (even without the NRA, someone would fight them as there is too much money in gun sales to that very small minority of people who buy them).

    410:

    Uppity black people

    I just realized the polite version of this as applied to non dark folks is "getting above your raising".

    411:

    The line I've been using for decades about the sixties: too many people took advantage of the GI bill after WWII, and a generation came up that actually believed what they were taught. The result was a whole generation of uppity ethnics, uppity women, all the lower classes who didn't know their place....

    412:

    The irony of who the Boomers tend to support now in political terms is not lost on many.

    413:

    Oh goody. DARPA has sent out a presolicitation for the Demonstration Rocket for Agile Cislunar Operations, or DRACO program.

    "Activity in cislunar space is expected to increase considerably in the coming years," Maj Nathan Greiner, manager of the DRACO Program, told Ars. "An agile nuclear thermal propulsion vehicle enables the DOD to maintain Space Domain Awareness of the burgeoning activity within this vast volume."

    In "Phase 1" of its solicitation, DARPA has asked industry for the designs of both a nuclear thermal reactor and an operational spacecraft upon which to demonstrate it. This initial phase of the program will last 18 months. Subsequent phases will lead to detailed design, fabrication, ground tests, and an in-space demonstration. No contracts have yet been awarded, and award values will be determined by industry submissions.

    Golly gee. Nucular Rockets In Space. What could possibly go wrong? Guess what the US Space Force has the hots for? And they're so tastefully subtle with their acronyms too.

    414:

    Not even vaguely all of us.

    But then, you young'uns think you know what it was like back then.... It was 10%, not sure if it hit 15%, antiwar; Maybe about the same pro-war. Most trying to keep a low profile and stay out.

    And anyone who tells you everyone was against 'Nam has brown eyes, because they're that full of it. I knew, and read of plenty of people whose folks literally disowned them for being against 'Nam, and not wanting to be drafted. And it went downhill from there. Those are the ones who support the GOP, because they were more anti-commie than the other....

    415:

    I knew, and read of plenty of people whose folks literally disowned them for being against 'Nam, and not wanting to be drafted. And it went downhill from there. Those are the ones who support the GOP, because they were more anti-commie than the other....

    You mean like my parents? Worked for Goldwater, voted democrat under Clinton?

    416:

    More like this old, um, maybe "friend" isn't the right word that I'm exchanging email with. He thinks he's a moderate. He also thinks Raygun was the best Prezidnent ever, and that The Turnip's ok.....

    417:

    Oddly enough, "You were only supposed to blow the bloody portal shut!" fits [I]The Atrocity Archive[/I] to a T.

    418:

    Apologies for that - I'd forgotten how it displayed for those who don't login. (Longtime OSM contributor.)

    How does this look: http://hikebikemap.org/

    The obvious thing is the Greenwich meridian may render in ways that are unpleasant to look at for some magnifications, but that's after a quick look in a private window with no login. Are there other issues? (Same database, but there is a time lag between the two versions, looking at a village in the UK where I've edited the residential area.)

    419:

    Re: ' ... but it may also be the mechanism for attacking other organs -- in which case dexamethasone ought to work there, too.'

    I hope you're right.

    420:

    That one seems to have approximately three months latency.

    This one may be more recent, with more emphasis on topography: https://opentopomap.org/

    This one seems to have less latency, looking at a village in Ireland that I did some landuse mapping on, though residential land use is just visible to my eyes on this map.

    421:

    Greg @346: Yes this was in England. The plumbers/fitters replaced and upgraded the entire heating and hot water system for a 4 bedroom bungalow in about 3 days, including replacing all the underfloor pipes with flexible plastic as described, new boiler with pressure vessel, new and upgraded radiators, thermostatic valves, shower mixers...

    My only warning is that if you choose an on-demand boiler, check it has the performance to maintain your target output temperature at maximum water flow rates. We found ours was marginal; ok for a medium-flow-rate shower, but only if nothing else was drawing hot water.

    On the plus side, because both hot and cold water are pressurised, there was no need for expensive thermostatic mixers.

    422:

    If one comprehends how the economy of the southern slaveocracy operated one wouldn't do that scenario. There is no way to convince them of doing anything different because their economy -- literally their money -- was entirely wrapped up in the bodies of the enslaved. Their wealth could not be divorced from owning the bodies of people. This wealth couldn't operate anywhere but within the milieu of the slaveocracy. Every child that was born increased a slaveowner's wealth -- not that the baby would be sold, but on the books of the creditors it increased the owner's wealth by at least $75, which increased rapidly throughout that child's life through puberty and early adulthood.* That wealth was credit. Within the south itself, the literal body could be exchanged for goods and services. But not anywhere else. And the the south didn't produce anything but cotton and slave labor and slaves. It was an immense ponzi scheme which meant that in 1860 Mississippi was the richest state in the union, with the most millionaires by far. In 1863 it became the poorest and has stayed the same every since.

    • In contrast to the person then reaching the age in which s/he couldn't reproduce, especially for female slaves, which, as in Thomas Jefferson's account books, any female slave who couldn't have children had a worth of -- 0. Yes zero. Literally listed in the book as 'worthless."
    423:

    Google Maps used to label the east and west piers in Dún Laoghaire as east and west piers Howth Harbour (which are 10km away), Harbour Road was labelled "Harcourt Terrace" and the South Wall in Dublin Port was "South Hill" (completely illogical as it is a long stone pier into the middle of Dublin Bay and Dublin is fairly flat anyway).

    Fortunately, they have since been fixed.

    Anyway, I'll stop here as these digressions are really off topic.

    424:

    Re: 'I was pointing out that the "how will Mars be governed" is a similar problem to that of "home churches".'

    Depends on how the first few waves of colonists/settlers are selected. And how soon they can survive without Earth.

    Selection criteria - I don't think that just wanting to go to Mars would be sufficient. Too expensive per colonist, and too risky to everyone else heading out to Mars. Overall, I think they'll need to use similar selection and training to whatever NASA and the other countries with astronauts currently use. The only astronaut bio I'm really familiar with is Chris Hadfield via his book: 'An Astronaut's Guide to Life on Earth: ...' which left me with the impression that in order to survive in space, you'll need to be sane, be able to work with people - follow as well as lead, have at least one area of expertise, respect that local resources are limited/precious, and not be prone to panic attacks. Yes, I realize that the kids of the first generation of settlers are probably not going to be psychological clones of their parents but because their parents were so carefully screened there's a pretty good chance that these kids will have the psycho-social environment as well as the in-depth training they will need in order to fit into their particular society and survive on Mars.

    Right now, I think it's a toss-up as to which of the US or China will be first in establishing a populated base on Mars. The US has done most of the distance exploration (e.g., Rover) but China's been doing a ton of different types of civil and environmental engineering under all sorts of different climactic (Earth) conditions. They've even built some man-made islands. If it boils down to which gov't is less likely to cut space exploration spending, then China will have the first settlement.

    If China settles Mars first, then what kind of society/culture would there be after 3 or 4 generations? Probably not identical to whatever it might be in China for the same reasons that if the US established the first Mars settlement, the 3rd or 4th generation would not be very similar to USians back on Earth. Both would have to adapt their ethno-cultural identities to local Mars conditions: USians would have to suck up the stereotypical hyper-individuality while the Chinese would in turn lose some of their stereotypical submissiveness to tradition and hierarchical authority figures.

    Government on Mars - probably more leadership and expertise-based decision-making for community/social and resource related issues and hands-off otherwise. Things could screw up really fast as soon as someone starts diddling with definitions of 'community', 'resources', etc. (Maybe they'll have a genetic test for authoritarianism by then and screen those out.)

    425:
    Er, is that actually 120 feet in six seconds? Or in sixty?

    120 feet in six seconds is 20ft/sec, or 6m/s. That's about 12mph; perfectly possible over short distances for an able-bodied human in good condition. (Yes, even if they're wearing metal armour - a good suit of plate weighs less than most standard modern infantry packs.)

    I wouldn't expect a DnD fighter (or Whitroth) to be able to maintain that pace for a marathon, but in short bursts it's absolutely doable.

    120 feet in sixty seconds, OTOH, is about the speed that I walk at, and I have serious joint problems and need a surgical brace on one leg in order to get out of the house at all.

    426:

    Games involving settling Mars or the asteroids might be popular. They're less likely to summon gibbering terrors from beyond reality and the New Management might encourage them to search the possible strategy spaces that rival abominations might use to reach their goals regarding summonings or to prevent the New Management from maintaining or expanding his realm. (As Charley noted, we are as bees to him and he loves his honey.)

    427:

    a) I think it was 120'/melee round (6 sec) b) under no circumstances are you going to keep that up.

    Btw, when you first start SCA training to fight heavy, after a few minutes of trying to beat on someone with something weighing about what a baseball bat does, your arm is ready to fall off. At the second session, where you're trying even a light shield for the first time, your arm will not last 5 min....

    All those exotic swords in pics, and for sale as wall-hangers, etc? There's no way you could use it for more than five minutes. Real weapons weigh under 5 lbs.

    428:

    learning that dexamethasone reduces inflammatory lung damage and increases survival rates in severe cases is unsurprising

    MedlifeCrisis on utube suggested that the surprise is because (that?) steroid isn't much use with other similar respiratory diseases. But in this case the overenthusiastic inflammatory response does seem to be the big problem, so looking back this solution is obvious :)

    429:

    Real weapons weigh under 5 lbs.

    mass, darling, it's mass that counts. Remember we're in magic RPG land, so gravity will always be exactly 1G but the actual value might change.

    (yes, I had this "discussion" in high school. Saying "gravity has a value of one gravity" is tautological)

    430:

    You're quite correct, but I came up with the scenario before I learned about the financialization of slaves, and of course the Civil War was instrumental in demonstrating the ultimate value of the financialization of humans vs. an industrial economy. And no American proto-economist would have noticed the issue until the war was over.

    431:

    How will Mars be governed? It will be governed in whatever manner the paymasters back on Earth require, for reasons explained by OGH some time ago.

    TLDR there may be research bases on Mars, but nothing that could ever be described as a colony. Think Antarctica.

    JHomes

    432:

    the golfers. They keep saying things like "God, this hole is difficult" and "Jesus, how did I miss that?"

    ... and then God answers and their problems really start. Sure, you might just get a convenient fireball removing that tree you're stuck behind*. But you might also find that God has noticed you and thinks you should have more wives.

    Especially when it's the one associated with Jesus petitioners very rarely good good results. At best you get "watch the cat chase the laser pointer into the wall" and worst it's more like "into the fire" with the bonus feature that you suffer torments for all eternity because he is a just and loving god.

    • this is how the dinosaurs disappeared. On a scale of universes the difference between "fireball for one tree" and "fireball for one planet" is negligible
    433:

    I used to agree that the 2nd amendment was only about militias. Give heard people ask smugly "what part of to keep and bear arms isnt clear",as if there were no rational.answer. I would always respond "the part about a militia". But then the supreme court weighed in. The reality of the way things work is, for all intents and purposes the supreme court says what the Supreme Court says it does. So I was wrong and the 2nd amendment provides for an individuals right to keep.amd bear arms, but only small arms that fire one shot per pull of the trigger and not machi e guns or artillery or a nuclear powered missile submarine with a dozen thermonuclear tipped ICBMs. Which is kind of odd, because unlike the first amendment t that protects the vast majority of speech, the second amendment only protects a tiny minority of arms.

    434:

    Hi Charlie. While I haven't read every comment here, I didn't see a call to end submissions for a 5e D&D game for you, so I registered to comment. I've been a sporadic lurker for a long time.

    While I never intended for this to be the case, I'm a pretty experienced DM, at least for pre-written adventures. I don't have the creative spark to run something completely home-brewed. I've run a 3.5e campaign from 1st to 20th level and am running two 5e groups that are currently running online in Roll20, though they're usually in-person.

    I don't imagine you're looking for a full-on long-term campaign to join, so I'd be up for running stuff that has been made for one player (the content in the "Essential's Kit" has a one-player & DM option and I'm betting there'one-player content on DMsGuild) until you've gotten what you want out of it. I'm flexible about working out something to help out. I'm a big fan and if nothing else, I can do this to help someone out in this off-kilter world.

    The biggest downside is that I live in the USA, on the east coast, but I'm certainly up for trying to work things out.

    Thanks!

    435:
    What if I only want to get rid of the "unobtrusive" Welcome to OpenStreetMap [Learn More] [Start Mapping] advertising box that takes up 1/3 of the window?

    Click on the near invisible "x" on the top right of that pane, just under the directions arrow.

    436:

    Real weapons weigh under 5 lbs.

    Coincidentally, just a few hours ago I was listening to the frequently amusing Lindybeige explain that "Battle-axes were SMALL".

    437:

    JBS You click on the (difficult to see) little "x" in the top RH corner of that box & it vanishes ....

    darkblue OK I need to do some research as to what brands/types of fitting I nedd, as that will mke my life so much easier [ I do all my own normal plumbing ] Boiler is normally run at about half heat & the circulation pump has 4 settings - I normally use either "2" or "3" - plenty of capacity. Oh & check what type o fittings I need were it goes platic-to-copper or the other way around. I would, of course only be using platic for replacement "bits" as the system as a wholw works well .... Thanks for that

    Foxessa @ 422 There's also the Niven arument about technology affecting morality ... Britain did not need slavery at all ( except in the W Indes, what a suprise! ) because, certainly by 1780/90, we had something the rest of the planet did not have: Steam Power - which renders slavery totally unnecessary, except for political/power/exploitation "reasons" - which is why the Han are doing it right now, of course.

    438:
    Britain did not need slavery at all ( except in the W Indes, what a suprise! ) because, certainly by 1780/90, we had something the rest of the planet did not have: Steam Power - which renders slavery totally unnecessary,

    Slaves in the Americas were mostly used in agriculture and steam power was not being used in agriculture in the 1790's.

    Britain did not need slavery because it was cheaper to use near-serf labour in Ireland and India in agriculture.

    439:

    Brit, Lombardy resident reporting back from the French beach, near Beaulieu, near Monte-Carlo. Nice weather, some clouds, 23C/73F. Vaut le voyage! Nice croissants d'isigny, 1€30each.

    By car - there were zero border controls, not that many locals are wearing masks. Indoors, perhaps three-quarters were protected. The Monaco police are out in force, on little Vespas.

    Italian medical chiefs (1) applaud the Oxford desametasone study, they can’t predict a second wave - but are ready for one, positive swabs are down in the very low percentages - seems to be a long-tail-effect. COVID was circulating around Milan in January, where one in six of Italians live, in the highest density. No evidence yet of increasing transmission rates, following our local-lockdown end, travel to other Italian provinces , two weeks before. Now we can travel anywhere, Spain excepting (14-day quarantine required for another 13 days at least, and the coalition gov has been suppressing infections data for a while, WTF?)

    On arriving in our FR seaside place, a quick wipe down of all surfaces with “mister-clean Bactericide/fungicide/virucide” Didecyldimethylammonium chloride (DDAC) cloths, took ten minutes, (was this more harmful than the virus - prob not) Cinemas still shut in France, many bars open, perhaps 10% of businesses shuttered, some for good. Ground-truth from a quick drive through Nice. Macron was again admitting “mea culpa” on TV; I haven’t yet encountered waves of ‘hot’ Parisiens, that will be a sign that it’s time to head back to where the virus is still circulating - but where the (northern?) Italian face-covering, social distancing and good sense will bring a sense of stability. There’s no evidence of viral mutation - the potential hosts acting rationally & sensibly is what you need, for several months more. I think we’ll easily get through autumn/winter second wave, good luck.

    (1) (a javascript-off website, otherwise nudge-wall): https://www.ilgazzettino.it/pay/attualita_pay/per_la_lombardia_servira_piu_tempo_perche_il_virus_ha_circolato-5292739.html

    440:

    That is grossly over-stated, to put it mildly, and is more accurately described as revisionism. Yes, the slaveowners wealth was tied up in the bodies of their slaves, but the south was not made up solely of slaveowners and slaves. If it had produced nothing but cotton and slaves, the civil war would have been over within a few months.

    No matter how evil a behaviour is, demonising a population for being associated with it is never justified.

    441:

    Foxessa is probably right-enough where my specific scenario was concerned. The main thing that gave the South a chance was President Buchanan not taking action to make sure the U.S. armories in the Southern states were properly secured, and those provided virtually all the guns the South used in the early part of the war. (This is why Buchanan is widely considered to be the worst president in U.S. history, though Trump is likely to make Buchanan look like Churchill when all is said and done!)

    442:

    John Hughes Oh dear .... Ireland may have been a net exporter fo food before the awful winters of 1847-9, which devasted Europe, but England supplied most of its own food - were Brit agricultral labourers serfs as well, then? I think your "argument" is fake. You are also ignorant - I suggest you look up "Mansfield Decision".

    443:

    Now that I've reminded myself of Lindybeige it occurs to me to share something relevant to the alleged topic of this thread. He's got three commentaries with self explanatory titles:

    Early D&D was rubbish Mid-period D&D wasn't great Fourth Edition D&D is terrible

    Fourth Edition D&D, which was roundly hated by pretty much everyone, was still a thing back in 2015. A few early adopters were trying out the Fifth Edition which had just appeared the previous year and many other people were still back at 3 or 3.5 where things made sense.

    The nice bit for Charlie's purpose is that the Laundryverse Fifth Edition won't be set in stone yet; it'll still be new enough to recast into something similar yet different.

    444:

    Oh & check what type o fittings I need were it goes platic-to-copper or the other way around.

    In the US there are 3 major ways to "do" PEX.

    At the higher end there are tools that expand the diameter of the tubing (manual and powered) buy inserting into the tube. Then you insert the fitting and the PEX fairly quickly returns to its normal size for a very tight seal.

    Then there are the ones where the fitting barely fits inside the tube and you crimp a ring around the tube. Also powered and manual crimpers. They look and work similar to bolt cutters including the force multiplying hinge. I have one of the manual kits.

    Then for the one off things there is a brand (and I'm sure others) called Shark Bite which allows you to insert the tubing into a fitting where once it goes in it does not come out. Most expensive per fitting but no tools required so great for a quick job with only a few things to do.

    As to O rings, no real need. The Shark Bite things likely have them but it is inside the fitting and so you don't notice it.

    Biggest thing is getting the right adapter from whatever you currently have to one of the standard PEX sizes.

    PS: Always do runs with a bit of slack. So if things need to change later or you make a mistake you can cut off the last inch or so and go at it again.

    445:

    Yes, I realize that the kids of the first generation of settlers are probably not going to be psychological clones of their parents but because their parents were so carefully screened there's a pretty good chance that these kids will have the psycho-social environment as well as the in-depth training they will need in order to fit into their particular society and survive on Mars.

    There will be no kids on Mars for a long time.

    Firstly, the initial astronauts are going to be high skill/high training people: typically astronauts don't fly til they're in their mid-thirties and tend to have multiple degrees (even multiple doctorates) or a career as a medical doctor or equivalent behind them, plus pilot time. Those folks have typically already had kids before they climb in a capsule for realz for the very first time, and they're too old for seconds. Indeed, I expect the first Mars expeditions to be crewed by 40-50 somethings.

    A second wave of construction crew types will then show up, if there's a permanent base to be built -- after the initial research is well under way into figuring out how to build a permanent base, never mind a city. But they're not going to be normies. Again: they've got to be highly skilled and used to working in a lethally hazardous environment -- oil rig maintenance diving skills and 3D printer maintenance and troubleshooting seem likely to be semi-transferrable: bricklaying, not so much. I'd expect a minimum of a degree, then 4-5 years specialist training on Earth, then 1-3 years to get to the construction site is going to push their average age into their 30s, and it will be (at best) like living on a North Sea oil rig, minus the accommodation platform. Not somewhere to have kids.

    Kids won't happen until basic accommodation is sorted (couples' bedrooms with doors on them, at minimum), there's a base medical facility that can handle an ob/gyn emergency, and enough surplus cash to cover shipping at least two nannies/childminders/teachers to Mars on a ten year rotation (read: millions) just to keep the kids out of trouble. Then ... childproofing. You know how much fun it is to childproof a house? Now imagine that instead of sticking a fork in the electricity socket, your 2 year old is going to let all the air out.

    Historically, having children was a useful source of cheap labour. On Mars, for the first 2-5 decades, children will be an outrageous luxury and a huge drain on colony resources, unless we get to colonize Mars via teleport booth (not Musk's Superheavy/Starship colony transporters).

    So I'm going to submit that labour on Mars is going to be expensive at first and stay expensive for a very long time, with most folks working in an ambient-pressure office environment (underground, safe from space radiation) and teleoperating drones and robot bodies on the surface. Imagine a workplace where everyone needs to work an 80 hour week, there are no vacations for the first few years, and you're hot-bunking ... but if someone quits, the cost of going to HR and issing a "sits. vac." notice starts at $2M and goes up from there. It's going to be weird ...

    446:

    ... working in an ambient-pressure office environment (underground, safe from space radiation) and teleoperating drones and robot bodies on the surface. Imagine a workplace where everyone needs to work an 80 hour week, there are no vacations for the first few years, and you're hot-bunking ...

    It sounds like what happens to video game developers during "crunch" times, only a totally permanent crunch, which some companies are heading towards. Huh.

    447:

    How will Mars be governed? It will be governed in whatever manner the paymasters back on Earth require, for reasons explained by OGH some time ago.

    Nuanced afterthought:

    Where there are humans in groups, there will be social events/gatherings. And where there are social gatherings, someone needs to organize the food and drink, and also tidy up afterwards.

    It might be as formal as a mess hall/official bar (for people who are very definitely off-duty), or it might just be that couple in Accommodation Block C who repurposed the bedroom next to theirs (where the air circulator has been broken for six months) to home-brew beer and invite a few friends round every Thursday off-shift, but there will be rec facilities, and they will be sanctioned officially (just to keep them under control, if nothing else) after the first sit-down strike.

    And the ents person will delegate and become an ents committee, and the ents committee will take on additional responsibility (who's going to decorate? What about replacement soft furnishings? who's running the fund-raiser for X's spouse back home who's been rendered homeless by a hurricane?). And ultimately the recreational activities will spawn their own administrative structure and it's probably going to be a democracy of some description, even if only a directly-voting one with a few rotating semi-official posts.

    Iterate for a century and Kim and Stu's jailhouse bar in Block C will become a de-facto government with more authority than the company head office 50 million kilometres away.

    448:

    Now imagine that instead of sticking a fork in the electricity socket, your 2 year old is going to let all the air out. ... but if someone quits, the cost of going to HR and issing a "sits. vac." notice starts at $2M and goes up from there.

    Any kids born on Mars will have mental aptitudes that are somewhat randomly selected. What do you do with the misfits? Toss them out the door?

    I'm in the middle of a situation where a teen from an adjacent lot is using my yard to sneak in and out without his parents supposedly knowing. When I talked to the father yesterday his comment was "Call the police. He doesn't listen to us."

    So what do you do with such on Mars? What if it's an incorrigible 10 year old? Airlock them? Wait. That would be cruel. Send them over to the counselor service for them to fix things. [sarcasm off]

    Then here's the bigger elephant in the room. Does everyone going have to be sterilized? If not there WILL be babies. Or at least pregnancies. Maybe require Norplant/Jadelle? But what if the 0.05% makes it through? Mandatory abortions? Is this discrimination against women?

    And I agree with Charlie's point on the ages involved. Which means if there is a birth it is more likely to have genetic issues.

    Ugh.

    Some people think it is discriminatory for the US Navy to shore women who become pregnant. But I can't see any other option past a certain point on a warship.

    449:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-linked_polyethylene

    Decent overview. At least from the US point of view.

    450:

    Oh, dear,

    I notice you are unable to defend your original absurd remark:

    Britain did not need slavery at all ( except in the W Indes, what a suprise! ) because, certainly by 1780/90, we had something the rest of the planet did not have: Steam Power - which renders slavery totally unnecessary,

    and immediately go on the attack.

    You are obviously a master debater.

    451:

    So what do you do with such on Mars? What if it's an incorrigible 10 year old? Airlock them? Wait. That would be cruel. Send them over to the counselor service for them to fix things. [sarcasm off]

    That's a very American approach to children -- that is, to assume the two-parent nuclear family is the default that has to fix everything. Frankly, I think it's doomed to failure.

    More likely by the time having children on Mars is remotely feasible they'll arrive in the context of a village/tribe society, where cohorts of kids bunk/are raised together by a rotation of responsible adults. They'll be eased into work duties from about age 8 -- even if it's just make-work that can be better done by CCTV -- to get them used to being responsible. There'll be no concept of teenage rebellion tolerated, not even in sanctioned cultural media from Earth -- and they'll be raised to expect a degree of collectivism that would be abhorrent to current American style individualists. Because in an early Mars base, everyone lives together or dies together.

    452:

    Yup.

    Greg doesn't seem to get that even if you outsource your slaves to third parties living overseas, you are still a beneficiary of the slaveowning system.

    The UK pioneered overseas outsourcing centuries ago, and not in a good way.

    453:

    More likely by the time having children on Mars is remotely feasible

    I'm NOT talking about how it will work under some plan at some point in the future.

    I was commenting on how the unplanned sooner than expected would work. Unless you sterilize both sexes before they head out there WILL be kids. And no structure to support them.

    454:

    It's so difficult to see that I didn't notice it when I opened it in a private window. OSM really need to fix that - it's really bad UI design.

    455:

    They'll be eased into work duties from about age 8 -- even if it's just make-work that can be better done by CCTV -- to get them used to being responsible. There'll be no concept of teenage rebellion tolerated, not even in sanctioned cultural media from Earth -- and they'll be raised to expect a degree of collectivism that would be abhorrent to current American style individualists. Because in an early Mars base, everyone lives together or dies together.

    To add to my other comment. You're describing how rural farming worked until recently in the US. Completely. My question is what do you do with the kids who don't go along? The parents likely volunteered. Their kids didn't. In the past such kids were just told to go away once they got to their teens. Not much talked about but that's what happened. On Mars that is a death sentence. Or a very expensive ticket on a ship that might not want such a person on board for a year or two. Give or take.

    456:

    I suspect that Mars colony 1.0 will be a panopticon society -- cameras and sensors everywhere. Kids who want a safe space to act out in will be directed to VR/computer games where they can't fuck real-world shit up. If they persist in showing worrying signs of anti-social behaviour, they'll probably get shipped off to Earth before they do anything bad. In general, antisocial stuff builds over time as the kid tests where the boundaries are by repeatedly over-stepping them.

    Note that "Earth" is going to be "big scary space where there is weather, everything weighs three times as much as it should, you can barely stand upright, and everyone you know is 50 million kilometers away." The threat of being shipped off to a boarding school there is pretty draconian.

    Flip side: most parents will have been socialized on Earth initially: they're not going to simply march Johnny out the nearest airlock, even if shipping him back to Earth in a straitjacket is fiendishly expensive.

    457:

    It's so difficult to see that I didn't notice it when I opened it in a private window. OSM really need to fix that - it's really bad UI design.
    The thing is that that website isn't OSM's product. The map is what they're making. The website is just a tool. Admittedly not a perfect one.

    I, personally, mostly interact with OSM using the Android OSMAND app (which is not made by OSM). I only really use the website for editing the map.

    I've been poking around on the website but I can't find where to report problems like the difficulty of finding the go-away button. Bummer.

    458:

    but I can't find where to report problems like the difficulty of finding the go-away button. Bummer.

    You're assuming they would treat it as a problem.

    460:

    May company's marketing departments want it to be hard to avoid signing up. Or at least not obvious how to avoid such. Even those who are non profit and have altruistic goals.

    461:

    Ok, here's the bug report:

    https://github.com/openstreetmap/openstreetmap-website/issues/2530

    And a proposed fix.

    https://github.com/openstreetmap/openstreetmap-website/pull/2537

    Everyone agrees it's a problem. As usual in the real world people haven't yet worked out the best way to fix it.

    462:

    Actually the thing slowing down fixing this is geeks arguing about whether it should be fixed in CSS or somewhere else. Don't need a "marketing department" with ulterior motives when you've got bikeshedding going on.

    463:

    In most cases, it isn't hard to teach even very young children (to some extent even before they can talk) the difference between "doing that will piss your father/whoever off" and "really, REALLY, never EVER do that". However, it does assume that they are not actually mentally disturbed, which largely comes down to parenting, and jumping down HARD on bullying and social rejection in all their facets (*).

    There is a problem with the unavoidable but very small subset of unteachable children, but it's a much smaller proportion than is often claimed.

    (*) Including daring more vulnerable children to do something unreasonable, for example.

    464:

    Now imagine that instead of sticking a fork in the electricity socket, your 2 year old is going to let all the air out.

    As the song says,

    Don't open up the cabin hatch The air is sure to leave it And air is very hard to catch You never will retrieve it

    (I didn't expect that relatively obscure song to come up twice this morning but it happened.)

    465:

    Your description of parenting correctly sounds a LOT like "Growing Kids God's Way". A widely discredited "Biblical" method of raising your kids.[1] Basically if you do it "right and according to our rules" your kids will turn out as expected.

    Kids/people vary wildly in temperament, ability, and all kinds of other factors. To think that the vast majority can be fit into a somewhat standardized process that turns them out "well", is, well, nuts. At least to this parent of two.

    Which is why I see big problems with kids on Mars (or similar) for 100 years or so. There's just no "space" for them to get away and be themselves. Until that space exists kids will turn out badly.

    [1] GKGW seemed to peak about 15 years ago. I wish it would die out but it may be like measles. It seems to flare up at times when not expected. I knew too many families who followed this path. Their kids, now grown, are all over the map. Preachers, atheists, transgender, gay, agnostic, etc... GKGW did not and does not work. At all.

    466:

    Which is why, ultimately we now understand that the War of the Rebellion was caused as much by two different economic systems in conflict for domination of a nation and a continent and a hemisphere, as it was by the morality of abolition.

    The two systems could not co-exist, particularly since the slavocracy's economic system so dragged down the economic 'development' of the northern, industrial and investment version of capitalism. Just as every white person in the US has benefited ultimately from the enslavement for so very long of African Americans, every white person in the south definitely benefited too, economically, whether or not s/he owned slaves themselves. The numbers of those who benefited in various ways is enormous. The entire south was financially invested in the slavery system, whether the poor nephew of a wife of a plantation owner or the 'cracker' in the piney woods who demanded food and other benefits from a passing slave. That this person particularly was oppressed by slavery was something he was blind too -- seeing instead that he was oppressed by the few house slave who dressed better than he, not slavery as a system.

    Migrants by and large did not come to the south, because all the traditional work that migrants do to gain an economic foothold in a new country were filled by slave labor, from shoe-making to selling food on the streets of Charleston. With the 'contrabands' and the first emancipation declaration, the south's capacity to fight the war literally folded. Slave labor had provided the food, the clothes, everything except the weapons. Weapons were the only thing the South didn't run out of during the war. But food -- the first white housewives food riots in Richmond already happened in the first hear of the war.

    The drag on the US economy that was the investment of the south's economy in the literal bodies of the enslaved is obvious in so many ways, just starting with the fact that the US had no national money until 1863, after the Emancipation Proclamation. This was no accident -- read the history of Jackson and the Bank, and his pet banks, and the financial disaster after disaster this caused -- in the north. The south -- and its ruling slaveocracy class -- did not suffer because the price of slaves and the credit they provided their own ledgers, continued to go up and up and up, as the Native Americans were forced by one means and another -- particularly by Jackson -- off their lands, and new lands demanding slave labor continued to be on offer.

    As said, the entire system was a gigantic ponzi scheme, for which the US has been paying the price ever since, even yea, literally TODAY

    467:

    Perhaps, but talk to your muscles when they're picking up that 8kg sword or halbard....

    468:

    From the tiny bit I've read, slavery in the US was starting to look less profitable.

    Of course, from this distance in time, we see that the ultrawealthy decided that wage slavery was far cheaper, with more ROI (to them) than traditional slavery. Now they don't have to feed, clothe, house, and provide medical (come on, they do it for livestock...), you can take the pennies they toss you, and live in your car, or cardboard box.

    469:

    No! You're claiming that God (tm) got tired of aiming his Mystical Laser Pointer for the dinosaurs to chase, and zapped them?

    470:

    Bleah.

    Original D&D was imperfect, but an excellent starting point. Of course, it did require that the players have some imagination, and be willing to work up a game, rather than the later editions, which a) started assuming the no-imagination-just-want-to-be-entertained players would buy pregenerated games, with known ends, and b) was trying to deal with people complaining that they were gaming with 16 yr olds who'd been in Monty Hall dungeons, and expected you to Accept Their Power.*

    • like the 16 yr old MU 9th level who took 72 HP of damage, and said "yeah, sure, I'm still ok...."
    471:

    Charlie & JH No - & yes .... Britan didn't NEED slavery, the way the US South did. Enormous profits were made from it, as Britain's sea power increased & they muscled in on an already-existing "commerce" -note - already existing, yes? But - it wasn't the main driver of profit, ever. Exploitation may have been ( Can you spell "East India Company" ?? ) but other industrial enterprises of various sorts were the main driver of commercial expansion. And, no - we were nowhere near the first to go for overseas outsourcing - for that ( In Europe ) one needs to look to France & Spain - the Netherlands were, perhaps a little "ahead" of us, but it's hard to say. The important thing to remember is that we were the first to get rid of it - something that seems to have been lost in the noise.

    And, on the same subject ... If "Black lives Matter" ( And they do, let's be clear about that, eh? ) Then WHY THE FUCK are the idiots worrying about statues in Britain ( Confederate statues in the USA is/are different, that's like having statues of Goebbels here ... ) of people over 200 years dead .... When dark-brown people are being enslaved & tortured RIGHT NOW in N Nigeria & Mali & ... by Boko Haram? Or intermediate-colour people being enslaved & tortured by the PRC, whilst their culture is exterminated. Or is that too difficult, so we will play safe & make "whitey's" life unpleasant? What utter hypocrisy - oh &, of course, it's sexist as well, because, as usual, in situations like this: women & young girls are bottom-of-the-heap ... abducted, enslaved, tortured raped ... but pink people aren't doing it, so it doesn't matter. SNARL.

    Foxessa YES The Niven argument that technology affects morality - sort-of/maybe - I agree. "War of the second Rebellion," please! (snark) Perfectly put, in that the slaveocracy was also dragging down Britain & the Brit industrialists were not going to put up with it - add that to the Anglican/Puritan/Nonconformist disgust at slavery & there was absolutely no way after 1772 that it was going to last, here - it was just a matter of how long ...

    [Note: The "Great Man" theory of history might be relevant here ( As in "What if xxxx was different?" ) 1: Louis XIV handed the planet, on a plate, to Britain on 22 October 1685, though he didn't realise it. 2: What would have happpened if Lord Mansfield had not made his two revolutionary judgements, regarding slave-owning & slave treatment in 1772 etc [ Oh & wiki is flat wrong about Dido Belle - Mansfield made it clear in his will that she was NOT a slave, just to make sure that no-one tried it on, after he died ..... 3: Afterthought ... Brexit is our Edict of Fontainbleu, what a total disaster. ]

    472:

    I'm afraid I need to disagree with your assessment of the construction workers. Bricklaying, or spraying concrete you make from Mars Dust, is a skill that needs hands-on learning. They're not going to have degrees, but they will have years of experience.[1] Btw, have you ever actually tried to lay bricks? (Why, yes, I did some repair once outside a house I owned....)

    And all the other folks WILL NOT all have advance or multiple degrees, unless you're like the company my late wife and I worked for became.[2]

    The upshot is that there will be sex, and there will be babies, since I seriously doubt all guys going up will have vasectomies[3].

    Also, I suspect each roundtrip to Mars will have space for some very small number of passengers. Actually, no, I take that back: if you're bringing folks to Mars to colonize, a LOT fewer will be going back, so there's plenty of room for misfits.

    Finally... anyone know of any stories from ancient times, about 3 or 4 yr olds breaking one or more water storage vases or skins for the extended family group traveling through the desert? I don't think so. There's ways that kids learn....

  • RANT: it used to be that you could substitute years of experience for degrees. By the late eighties, though, HR departments were replacing Personnel departments, and the ignorant idiots knew NOTHING, and required degrees, because they didn't know shit about the job they were hiring for, nor would they talk to the actual hiring manager. I once did not get a job, in spite of a very good interview, because, in spite of the posted "x yrs experience for degree", the asshole in HR said, "no, I'm going to ignore that, and what I say goes" (she said it to me, on the phone, so I'm not guessing).
  • 2.They went to upscaling, that being Austin, TX, which a friend with a Masters once called the most paper snob town he'd ever seen. After almost nine years as a lab tech, they gave my late wife an afternoon on Friday notice... (she had been a lab tech for 15 years, no degree), and that Sunday, we saw the ad for a chemist with a BS to do... lab tech work.

  • That could be an interesting plot point: have a kid before you leave for Mars, you'll get a vasectomy, and we support your kid.
  • 473:

    Without even clicking on the link, in what way is Frank Hayes' Never Set The Cat On Fire obscure?

    "Don’t start an interstellar war; it has no helpful uses When someone asks you “What’s it for?”, you’ll only make excuses If thirty trillion folks get hurt You’ll go to bed with no dessert! Don’t start an interstellar war"

    Hmmm, time to send the Hairball to bed with no dinner, much less no dessert.

    474:

    Of course, from this distance in time, we see that the ultrawealthy decided that wage slavery was far cheaper, with more ROI (to them) than traditional slavery. Now they don't have to feed, clothe, house, and provide medical (come on, they do it for livestock...), you can take the pennies they toss you, and live in your car, or cardboard box.

    And of course, for us Westerners, the slavery is mostly hidden away. The production chains are long enough and it's hard enough to check that it's quite hard to live in most industrialized places without buying slave-produced things.

    For example chockolate is apparently often slave-produced. Yes, you can get fair trade chockolate, but still most of it is grown and picked 'somewhere else.' Diamonds, even though the artificial ones are as good as the 'natural' ones, are still being dug out of the ground and sold by DeBeers associates, and they are not that nice people in many cases. Cobalt, for all the shining screens? Much of it comes from Congo, where the workers' rights are not quite up to even US standards. Vegetables? Well, at least Southern Europe has had a lot of 'migrant workers' doing the picking and they are cheap.

    So, we are kind of all complicit in slavery and practices near it, just by participating in the society and living in it. It has not gone anywhere but out of sight.

    475:

    Exploitation may have been ( Can you spell "East India Company" ?? ) but other industrial enterprises of various sorts were the main driver of commercial expansion

    Where do you think the cotton all those Manchester mills ran on was grown? And where the cloth they produced from it was exported?

    Hint: the Deep South, or India -- pick either one: you get slaves, or locals under the authority (at gun and sword point) of the East India Company, which was run by sociopathic grifters who'd have been quite at home on a Southern plantation.

    Seriously, a huge chunk of the British 19th century industrial miracle happened on the back of either slavery or de facto slavery in the colonies.

    If "Black lives Matter" ( And they do, let's be clear about that, eh? ) Then WHY THE FUCK are the idiots worrying about statues in Britain ... of people over 200 years dead ....

    Because you deal with what's in your back yard first, and those dead guys? Were guilty as fuck, in either owning and transporting slaves, or profiting from the proceeds of the slave trade.

    There aren't any statues of Confederate generals in the UK, but there are plenty of black folks suffering from institutional discrimination and looking for an outlet, and I'm totally fine with them raising the consciousness of white guys like myself (and you) by pointing out what we're living on the back of.

    the slaveocracy was also dragging down Britain & the Brit industrialists were not going to put up with it - add that to the Anglican/Puritan/Nonconformist disgust at slavery & there was absolutely no way after 1772 that it was going to last, here - it was just a matter of how long ...

    It lasted, in attenuated form, until the 1960s and the final flag lowering on the British Empire in Africa (never mind India). Not slavery, just indentured labour employed by locals who paid onerous taxes that bleeded their countries dry, for the benefit of the British Empire.

    476:

    Sigh. No. Almost exactly the converse, but I doubt that it is worth my while trying to explain to you :-(

    477:

    I'm still processing the idea of a Mars colony as a kibbutz crossed with a panopticon (the latter like modern American high schools, but without the active shooter drills). Um, yeah.....

    Actually, the colonies created by European colonial empires are a very bad model, because they very rarely established colonies where there weren't any people. The real first colonists had got there centuries to many millennia before, and the EuroCols proceeded to conquer their work.

    That's not going to work on Mars. The better model, unfortunately, is the Polynesians, because they were recent enough in history that there's not just archaeological evidence of how they did it. The unfortunate part is that translating neolithic solutions for settling a fairly restricted set of conditions (mostly basalt high islands in the tropical to subtropical Pacific. And New Zealand) doesn't translate all that well to Mars or an asteroid. Making your own air, water, radiation shielding, and gravity-analogs is a different set of skills than fishing, gardening, and sailing But they didn't have much trouble with their kids, I don't think.

    As a sarcastic solution, why are we talking about shipping the rich and super-skilled to Mars? When did that ever work (looking at the early English colonies)? Wouldn't it be better to simply ship skilled refugees to Mars to build civilization there for the rest of us? For example (to sarcastically propose a solution that no one would seriously support): why not give Israel control of the entire Holy Land, and give Mars to the refugees from Palestine, Syria, and Iraq? Their ancestors built the first iteration of civilization in a desert after all. Why not give them the chance to do it again?

    478:

    Charlie Did you actually read that piece about actual slaves being freed during the period 1950-70 that I posted, by the not-so-evil ex-colonialist British?

    479:

    Bricklaying, or spraying concrete you make from Mars Dust, is a skill that needs hands-on learning.

    Well yes, but I'm not convinced those construction materials and techniques will be imported to Mars.

    Initial buildings are likely to be constructed from repurposed space vehicle tankage, probably lowered into bulldozed trenches and covered with rubble as radiation protection. Tunneling seems likely -- the surface is a very hostile environment -- at which point, sealing the interior rock surfaces to prevent leakage will be an issue, and then lining them with some sort of thermal insulation: possibly polystyrene foam (if they can get enough surplus from the methane fuel plants) or, quite possibly, silicon based aerogel.

    But bricklaying is labour-intensive and they are going to want to automate as much as possible, because life support capacity is going to be really expensive in the early years (at least, until Musk wakes up and realizes he ReallyReallyReally ought to be bankrolling Biosphere 3.0 through 99.0 right now if he plans to build a viable Mars colony by mid-century).

    Hmm. Here's a huge challenge: orbital mechanics means a low energy transfer window between Mars and Earth comes up roughly once every two years, and it's a 9 month journey. A human consumes roughly 10 tonnes of air and dry food per year (let's suppose water recycling is practical at near-100% efficiency). So if you ship canned apes to Mars, and something goes wrong with the colony, they need at least 7.5 tonnes of consumables (and possibly 27.5 tonnes -- let's call it 30 tonnes) per person stockpiled against an evacuation-grade emergency, or it's a suicide mission.

    The challenge: to develop a 100% closed circuit life support system that can support a single human for up to 3 years with a mass budget of 30,000kg. Note that it has to be able to survive being sealed for 36 months, with no additional inputs (but a human on hand to do running repairs/adjustments). "If it fails, indent for another scratch monkey" is not an option.

    We know it's doable with 30 tonnes (just) by treating it as consumable. The goal should be to do it on 3 tonnes, or less, of additional mass per colonist.

    If we can't do that, then "colonizing Mars" is not really possible -- we'd be shipping in supplies at a cost of $200K per colonist per year just to keep them from dying.

    480:

    like modern American high schools, but without the active shooter drills

    Sorry, it's going to have active shooter drills: just, the shooters are non-sentient. (Think micrometeorite impacts, solar flares, dust storms, and other lethal environmental phenomena that can come on quite suddenly).

    481:

    The challenge: to develop a 100% closed circuit life support system that can support a single human for up to 3 years with a mass budget of 30,000kg. Note that it has to be able to survive being sealed for 36 months, with no additional inputs (but a human on hand to do running repairs/adjustments). "If it fails, indent for another scratch monkey" is not an option.

    Build shipping container farms for refugee camps. This is the test bed for how cheaply can you make a massively compact super-farm? It's not a joke. Indeed, architecture students so routinely test out their wacko ideas in refugee camps that agencies in charge of keeping refugees alive have started asking that only proven housing solutions be implemented, please. But food is another issue. There's a need for better food supplies, and if you set up a supplemental food growing system as an experiment, it will only make their lives worse if they come to depend on it and it fails. Otherwise, you're just providing diversity for their diets.

    Cargo container farms right now run around $70,000 (last I looked) and are aimed at commercial farmers who want to produce high end hydroponic veggies for sale to restaurants and grocery chains. I don't know whether the technology can be scaled up to actually and affordably feed large numbers of people from small volumes, but it's certainly worth trying it. And if you can't do that on Earth, there's no point in trying something that much harder on Mars, is there?

    The other thing is that Martians need to get over their fear of eating insects. A colony of crickets (or a variety of other bugs) can provide far more protein in a smaller space. With something like crickets, a cow's weight in crickets can have 25% of it harvested periodically and regenerate with no problem. It's impossible to harvest 25% of a cow's meat and expect the cow to survive.

    I've even got a name for the special facility where insects would be raised. Obviously it would be the small animals raising facility (SMARF), but I suspect it would be known informally as the buggery.

    482:

    You're right about that. Because one size does not fit all. You're comments about sports prove that. Among other things.

    I've been waiting for the state slavery of India by the UK to come out without me bringing it up as I figure as a Merican I'd be ridiculed as "not understanding".

    I have no idea if you raised kids or not. And this is not directed at you or anyone specifically on this blog. But some of the biggest nonsense about raising kids comes from people who've never done it.

    483:

    So if you ship canned apes to Mars, and something goes wrong with the colony, they need at least 7.5 tonnes of consumables (and possibly 27.5 tonnes -- let's call it 30 tonnes) per person stockpiled against an evacuation-grade emergency, or it's a suicide mission.

    Naw. They just grow poop potatoes.

    Must be doable. I saw it in a movie.

    484:

    whitroth @ 405: A year or so ago, I went looking for information on 18th century grammar. What I found was Johnson's dictionary, the first of English. ALL the Founding Fathers would have been familiar with it.

    And in it, he uses commas to delineate PAUSES, as when speaking, not clauses.

    The commas in the Second Amendment don't even "delineate" that. The copyists who made the 13 original copies sent out to the state legislatures for ratification never heard the words spoken aloud.

    485:

    I've got a better reasonable solution: ship all the ultrawealthy to Australia, and let Australians take over their estates elsewhere.

    Let's see which of the ultrawealthy works in the fields and the mines in Oz....

    486:

    whitroth @ 411: The line I've been using for decades about the sixties: too many people took advantage of the GI bill after WWII, and a generation came up that actually *believed* what they were taught. The result was a whole generation of uppity ethnics, uppity women, all the lower classes who didn't know their place....

    The first, most fundamental flaw in your reasoning is that "too many people took advantage of the GI bill after WWII".

    487:

    Sir Rupert is amused by your presumption.

    Personally, I want to shift the ultra-wealthy into the future (on ice?) at a rate of 1 hour per dollar of wealth claimed. No one below US$60,000,000 accepted.

    488:

    "...like the 16 yr old MU 9th level who took 72 HP of damage, and said "yeah, sure, I'm still ok...""

    That's not impossible under D&D 5. An MU gets a six-sided die, so with a constitution of 16 plus the "toughness" feat you'd end up with around 80 HP, so that's not impossible. And if the MU was a necromancer, they might have vampiric regeneration if they killed something, or would halve the damage if the attack was necrotic in nature. And there are other reasons they might be "ok."

    But your critique is not entirely wrong; IMHO D&D 5 works much too hard to avoid killing characters. To be fair, there's also a well-designed set of calculations for making sure the opposition is actually challenging to the party, and some DMs don't perform them. Setting up either characters or encounters is entirely non-intuitive to someone raised with 1st Edition AD&D, (but I'm slowly adjusting.)

    489:

    Bricklaying, per se, may not be, but I'll buy you a drink if they don't use some form of sprayed concrete. The ships are small. Dig a big hole - there are mines that go down literally miles here on earth - and seal it. Make light pipes to get sunlight down for the large rooms of crops.

    And you need lab-tech equivalents to deal with the day-by-day care of the plants, not someone with a degree.

    Ah, there you go: older kids minding the younger, and if they screw it up, they don't get something for dinner that night. Learn really fast there....

    490:

    Chrisj @ 425:

    Er, is that actually 120 feet in six seconds? Or in sixty?

    120 feet in six seconds is 20ft/sec, or 6m/s. That's about 12mph; perfectly possible over short distances for an able-bodied human in good condition. (Yes, even if they're wearing metal armour - a good suit of plate weighs less than most standard modern infantry packs.)

    I wouldn't expect a DnD fighter (or Whitroth) to be able to maintain that pace for a marathon, but in short bursts it's absolutely doable.

    120 feet in sixty seconds, OTOH, is about the speed that I walk at, and I have serious joint problems and need a surgical brace on one leg in order to get out of the house at all.

    All I know is you can carry that "standard modern infantry pack" for years and years before those "serious joint problems" set in, but they will eventually set in.

    491:

    But your critique is not entirely wrong; IMHO D&D 5 works much too hard to avoid killing characters.

    I agree, the D&D 5e makes it hard to kill characters. Its philosophy seems to be that the characters are something you build during the game and don't lose them willy-nilly. You can find a lot of character builds on the internets for 5e (or many other games), and it's kind of a game in itself. Less than in D&D 3.x, as I understand it, but it's still there.

    The philosophy of the older D&Ds was different, at least partly. If you look at the D&D products, at least when it was differentiated from AD&D, there was much more lethality and characters were not that easy to get to higher levels. It was kind of an adventure (heh) to see what happened. Of course the rules were much simpler and there was much less choice when characters gained levels than in the later versions.

    The more modern clones of the original D&D take this into account. In Dungeon Crawl Classics you start with three 0-level characters and if one should survive the first adventure, you roll for the class they get (or not if they're not human). In Lamentations of the Flame Princess, the only class to get better attacks is the fighter - everybody else hits just as well on the higher level as on the first. These games also have less hit points than D&D 5e and more 'save-or-die' effects, like poison.

    They are different games. It's easy to get even the old D&D versions nowadays, so if you want to play that (and can find people to play with), it shouldn't be a problem. If you like 5e, or something else, then play it instead.

    492:

    Mallen @ 433: I used to agree that the 2nd amendment was only about militias. Give heard people ask smugly "what part of to keep and bear arms isnt clear",as if there were no rational.answer. I would always respond "the part about a militia". But then the supreme court weighed in. The reality of the way things work is, for all intents and purposes the supreme court says what the Supreme Court says it does. So I was wrong and the 2nd amendment provides for an individuals right to keep.amd bear arms, but only small arms that fire one shot per pull of the trigger and not machi e guns or artillery or a nuclear powered missile submarine with a dozen thermonuclear tipped ICBMs. Which is kind of odd, because unlike the first amendment t that protects the vast majority of speech, the second amendment only protects a tiny minority of arms.

    That's bullshit. If the Supreme Court was always correct Plessy v. Ferguson would still be the law of the land and there never would have been a Brown v. Board of Education and the right-wingnut death cults wouldn't be continuously looking for a way to get the SCOTUS to overturn "Roe v Wade".

    Unrelated ... that damn headache is back. I have an appointment with the ENT Clinic at the Durham VA next Tuesday.

    493:

    It would be worth looking at the traditional way Inuit raised children. Hostile environment with very little surplus resources and the possibility for a rogue individual to cause serious damage to the group. Not Mars, but possibly a close enough analogue to spark some ideas.

    494:

    John Hughes @ 435:

    What if I only want to get rid of the "unobtrusive" Welcome to OpenStreetMap [Learn More] [Start Mapping] advertising box that takes up 1/3 of the window?

    Click on the near invisible "x" on the top right of that pane, just under the directions arrow.

    On my monitor it's completely invisible, but clicking where it should be according to your description worked. Thanks.

    495:

    assuming the no-imagination-just-want-to-be-entertained players would buy pregenerated games

    I remember talking to Loren Wiseman (GDW) about Traveller, and he mentioned that when GDW released the first Traveller boxed set they thought that was it; that groups would use the rules to make their own settings and adventures. They (GDW) were really surprised that there was a market for supplements and adventures.

    496:

    You bastards. Now I have the cat on fire earworm. Be very, very, careful or I shall launch that old time religion at you - or even the Shoggoth song.

    497:

    why are we talking about shipping the rich and super-skilled to Mars?

    Because it's a socially acceptable way of getting rid of the tech-bros?

    498:

    Guillotines, after a trial, are also socially acceptable....

    499:

    Scott Sanford @ 436:

    Real weapons weigh *under* 5 lbs.

    Coincidentally, just a few hours ago I was listening to the frequently amusing Lindybeige explain that "Battle-axes were SMALL".

    M-16
    Mass    6.37 lb (2.89 kg) (unloaded)
                 7.5 lb  (3.40 kg) (loaded)

    Doesn't actually mean anything, I was just trying to see if I could make the decimal points line up & the M-16 is the weapon whose "weight" is permanently engraved upon my brain.

    Non-breaking white-space doesn't quite do it for a proportional font.

    Although, it IS a "real weapon" even if it does weigh more than 5 lbs.

    500:

    John Hughes @ 438:

    Britain did not need slavery at all ( except in the W Indes, what a suprise! ) because, certainly by 1780/90, we had something the rest of the planet did not have: Steam Power - which renders slavery totally unnecessary,

    Britain did not need slavery because it was cheaper to use near-serf labour in Ireland and India in agriculture.

    Plus, "Britain did not need slavery" is an outright bullshit lie intended to deny that, needed or not, Britain was a slave-holding nation and built an empire on slavery. The American Colonies had slavery because Britain introduced slavery there.

    Whatever they might have done after the American Revolution cannot erase their history of slavery, nor absolve them of their responsibility for its existence in the U.S.

    501:

    Elderly Cynic @ 440: No matter how evil a behaviour is, demonising a population for being associated with it is never justified.

    Especially so in the case of certain other posters who would do well to "remove the plank from their own eye ..."

    502:

    You carry an M-16, aim, and fire. You do not beat on other people with it over and over and over and over....

    Go get a baseball bat. Now hit a post. Let me know how long it is before your arm's falling off.

    Now, take a weapon in the right hand (if you're right handed), and a shield, weighing more, in the other arm, while I try to beat on you, and you protect with the shield....

    503:

    Or maybe I should have said, "how long are you going to fight using only a bayonette on the rifle - and that's using both hands to hold the rifle.

    504:

    Scott Sanford @ 443: Now that I've reminded myself of Lindybeige it occurs to me to share something relevant to the alleged topic of this thread. He's got three commentaries with self explanatory titles:

    Early D&D was rubbish
    Mid-period D&D wasn't great
    Fourth Edition D&D is terrible

    Fourth Edition D&D, which was roundly hated by pretty much everyone, was still a thing back in 2015. A few early adopters were trying out the Fifth Edition which had just appeared the previous year and many other people were still back at 3 or 3.5 where things made sense.

    The nice bit for Charlie's purpose is that the Laundryverse Fifth Edition won't be set in stone yet; it'll still be new enough to recast into something similar yet different.

    After watching the first, YouTube popped up this one:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEazOxHJRYc

    I only mention it here because it is "brought to you by:" Peterson's Cthulhu Mythos. I haven't finished watching it all the way through and it may be complete rubbish, but Cthulhu!

    505:

    . Unless you sterilize both sexes before they head out there WILL be kids.

    Just a second. You're saying that highly trained experts who spend their career doing everything exactly according to the agreed procedures (well, the ones who are still alive have done that), will somehow decide that having sex without proper contraception is a good idea? And that if they did, they would have no backup plan? Inside an operation where everything has multiple layers of backups?

    I know the USA is "funny" about sex and pregnancy, but that's just ridiculous. Even if, and I mean "in the vanishingly unlikely event that the entire chain of command for the Mars operation is both USA based and entirely composed of fucking morons", the chances of anyone being sent to Mars without both effective contraception and backup plans is zero.

    506:

    Not Mars, but possibly a close enough analogue to spark some ideas.

    Maybe. But still they had summers and OUTDOORS. Something a kid could look forward to. Mars for all practical purposes of a kid growing up has neither.

    I could see a gym room/hut/bunker were you could honest to goodness RUN for a few seconds being high on the list of early projects. Kids or not.

    507:

    which largely comes down to parenting

    And as mentioned, village parenting. This stupid idea that you leave parenting entirely in the hands of one or two novices and don't help them is, I think, a brief and unsatisfactory failure. There's little evidence that it works, and even less reason to expect it to work.

    Worth noting that the ruling class don't generally abide by the "nuclear family" nonsense, making great use of social capital as well as outright buying in services. And at the other end of the spectrum most poor people just can't afford to even aspire to a nuclear family. They share child-raising the same way they share every other thing, just to stay alive. Or they're so badly broken by the society they live in that they do everything alone (or die trying).

    Somehow I think a Mars base is going to have way more interaction between parents and society, and much less tolerance for "parenting is a private matter", even if that's the theory pushed from High Command. You might think that abusing your child is your right, but the consequences for everyone you live with are too savage for anyone to seriously consider taking the risk. But the ways you prevent kids being abused are the same ways you use to help parents raise kids effectively... "it takes a village to abuse a child" as the US saying goes.

    508:

    Your annual mass requirements for life support are rather high, Design Rules for Life Support Systems suggests 5kg a day per person for drinking water, hydrated food and oxygen (top of page 5, right hand column) with water (including any in the food) being 71%. That works out at 1.8 tonnes including the water or a bit over half a tonne for dehydrated food and oxygen annually.

    Kimball Musk seems to be the one looking at containerised food production, Elon can't do everything though he does try...

    509:

    Perhaps, but talk to your muscles when they're picking up that 8kg sword or halbard....

    In a 0.1m/s/s* environment I could pick it up quite easily. Waving it about will be much harder.

    I note that you're using mass units but seem to think you're talking about force. The GM will have your guts if you're not careful. "oh, lookie here, a 50m/s/s 'one gravity' area. Enjoy your 5kg weapon now that it weighs 250N".

    • which is also 0.1N/kg, but I fear seeing mass units will encourage the confusion.
    510:

    You put men and women in close quarters (or just men or just women) for a few years or decade; "There will be sex".

    Denying hunman nature doesn't mean it will not happen.

    This involved 3 NASA astronauts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Nowak

    511:

    whitroth @ 502: You carry an M-16, aim, and fire. You do not beat on other people with it over and over and over and over....

    ... unless you happen to have been issued ammo from an old batch of Vietnam War era ball-powder. In which case you might get to put those old bayonet drills into practice.

    http://www.mydfz.com/Paxton/lyrics/tbr.htm

    Go get a baseball bat. Now hit a post. Let me know how long it is before your arm's falling off.

    Nope. I'd rather have a machete or an axe.1

    Now, take a weapon in the right hand (if you're right handed), and a shield, weighing more, in the other arm, while I try to beat on you, and you protect with the shield....

    Why would I want to just stand there and let you wail away at me when I'm a fan of ranged weapons.

    1 FWIW, I've been heating with a wood stove for almost 45 years, and firewood does not split itself.

    512:

    _Moz_ @ 505:

    Unless you sterilize both sexes before they head out there WILL be kids.

    Just a second. You're saying that highly trained experts who spend their career doing everything exactly according to the agreed procedures (well, the ones who are still alive have done that), will somehow decide that having sex without proper contraception is a good idea? And that if they did, they would have no backup plan? Inside an operation where everything has multiple layers of backups?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mile_high_club

    513:

    David L @ 506:

    Not Mars, but possibly a close enough analogue to spark some ideas.

    Maybe. But still they had summers and OUTDOORS. Something a kid could look forward to. Mars for all practical purposes of a kid growing up has neither.

    I could see a gym room/hut/bunker were you could honest to goodness RUN for a few seconds being high on the list of early projects. Kids or not.

    Maybe a giant hamster-wheel like the one postulated for Kubrick's Discovery One in 2001: A Space Odyssey. In the film the crew quarters were theoretically spun to simulate 1G. Don't know how you'd accomplish that on Mars where there's already gravity, but I'm sure the engineers could figure it out.

    I remember another science fiction story I read where a prison that was supposed to be on a space wheel was simulated by having a giant merry-go-round with an angled floor so the centrifugal force & gravity combined. It was a fake with carefully constructed sight lines so the people inside couldn't tell they were actually still on earth ('cause if you ain't got space suits & and you believe you're on a wheel in space with vacuum all around outside, are you going to try to break out?

    But the point is it would be possible to build a big spinning running track inside an underground cavern that would give you 1G, especially if you didn't need to hide the fact that it was just a big wheel inside an underground cavern.

    How much time would you have to spend in there and how often so your musculature wouldn't atrophy preventing you from ever returning to earth?

    514:

    "... if you ain't got space suits & and you believe you're on a wheel in space with vacuum all around outside, are you going to try to break out?"

    That's very IPCRESS. I'm reminded of OGH's previous comment that Deighton was a great writer of horror fiction.

    515:

    Re: '... traditional way Inuit raised children.'

    Hadn't heard of how Inuit traditionally raised their children before but it makes sense to me.

    A lot of the arguments about child-rearing suggest that kids on Mars would be an easily replaced commodity. I strongly disagree.

    A lot of the child-rearing suggestions also assume zero progress in developmental, abnormal or any other psychology, neuroscience, sociology, etc. Or that all child-rearing guidance and instruction would have to be done locally.

    No reason to not have regular psych or instruction access with any specialist on Earth via satellite. Sure there'd be a time delay but do it often enough and your mind won't notice it much.

    Actually you personally are in exactly the right spot to comment and update us about distance-learning since you've had this dumped on you because of COVID-19. I recall that you mentioned that you and fellow teachers had no help in figuring out how to do this effectively. Given how some experts/gov'ts feel that this cycle might repeat I'm guessing both gov'ts and teaching professionals will start to take distance-learning seriously - as a core and standardized deliverable. Also guessing there will be slews of distance/online international teacher/prof symposia on how to improve this teaching approach. In fact, I think it's a safe bet that distance learning interspersed with in-person (classroom) group instruction might become the norm by the time the first Mars colonists start having kids.

    516:

    The gap between "had sex" and "had sex, got pregnant, had baby" is not trivial. Can you link to somewhere discussing the babies that resulted from the sex you're talking about, or does that link just reinforce what I said?

    517:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzeAuXlTnXQ

    Seth Myers did "Environmental Scientist Breaks Down Quarantine's Healing Effect on Nature" ... by discussing how a pustule in the earth has burst to release demons from the underworld

    518:

    This discussion is making me somewhat concerned about some of the men here. Or more accurately, what experience they've had that has made them so adamant that if they have sex a baby will necessarily result.

    I've had the sort of sex that can result in pregnancy quite a few times, but never with the intention of making babies, and to the best of my knowledge the latter intention has been successful. It's not rocket science, even when your first or second plan for "not getting pregnant" fails.

    It takes a lot of mistakes in a row to end up with a baby if you don't want one and have the sort of resources available to astronauts.

    Look, I accept that the USA as a country is fucking mental when it comes to sex and pregnancy. I've seen your abstinence education garbage so no problem doing that. But the idea that someone, anyone, would spend billions of dollars on a Mars mission and let prudishness or religious objections stop them slipping a few doses of "Plan B" into the medical supplies seems far-fetched to me. Not just on sanity grounds, but just on the whole "methodically plan, test the plan, have a backup plan, test the backup plan, come up with ways to deal with both plans failing" setup that the mission necessarily entails, and then "when one of the crew gets pregnant we'll just wait and see what happens"... WTF?

    Come on, these people have a plan for one of the crew getting struck by lightning a few hours before launch. You think they don't already have a plan for one of them getting pregnant ditto? Or discovering she's pregnant after launch? Seriously, pull the other one.

    519:

    More ideas/comments re: having kids on Mars

    a) Unwanted/unsanctioned pregnancy for the first people shipping off to Mars -- I would guess that the fear of frying your ovaries/sperm during the trip to Mars and therefore forever never being able to have a child would be a sufficiently compelling argument for having these put on ice/safekeeping in advance of lift-off. Then once you're reasonably settled use IVF to have your kid. In a way this would also be good psychological/emotional insurance because it would extend the number of years beyond ordinary physiological fertility - mainly for women but possibly for men (i.e., low sperm count). (Or recruit celibates, people not interested in having kids.)

    b) Unwanted/unsanctioned pregnancy for the first generation born on Mars -- Similarly, there may be sufficient risk of environmental harm to the reproductive systems on Mars that 'banking' your ova/sperm might be the safest option. Could be turned into a coming of age rite.

    If the Mars colony doesn't have lots of or timely access to professional child-rearing experts, then this perspective might be worth considering.

    c) Kids are people -- I'm guessing most folks here haven't met or talked to young kids with serious, life-theartening medical conditions that lasted more than a couple of weeks. Or to physicians or nurses treating these kids. It's amazing how much culturally handed down BS and pretend/fantasy adults in the developed world dump on or assume about their kids. Kids when treated as people - with respect and one-on-one seriousness - as is common in top paeds hospitals often turn out to be incredibly thoughtful, intelligent, insightful, and responsible. Overall, my belief is that a lot of the BS/fantasy is probably because most parents don't really spend much time interacting with their kids: child-rearing has been mostly 'out-sourced' apart from the culturally mandated family rituals. I'd be interested in finding out how parent-child relationships have changed esp. in the developed world because of COVID-19 lockdowns and especially interested in finding out which types of adults/parents discovered that their kids are 'people'.

    520:

    Come on, these people have a plan for one of the crew getting struck by lightning a few hours before launch. You think they don't already have a plan for one of them getting pregnant ditto? Or discovering she's pregnant after launch? Seriously, pull the other one.

    The nature of colonizing Mars is such that the first waves of people to go will be risk takers - people who yes are educated and can generally take orders but who also have the personality that not only allows for risk but somewhat requires it / thrives on it.

    Given that trait, someone is going to decide to have a kid and hide a pregnancy until too late to terminate (well, at least based on Earth principles).

    If nothing else, one of those thrill seekers will want to be in the history books to be the first parent on Mars...

    521:

    Axe, saw, or chainsaw?

    If axe, how heavy is your axe?

    I don't think my double-bitted axe weighs more than five or six pounds.

    522:

    Seems to me that Moz hasn't yet attended the required session given weekly by Murphy. Hallway 7, door B. Every day at noon with lunch provided.

    They request that you sign up in advance so they know how many pizzas to buy but for some reason they keep winding up with triple or 1/3 the number of pizzas needed. Admins are still trying to get a handle on the issue.

    523:

    As long as sharp things are being discussed,

    Knife Missile! Maybe not quite Culture grade, but a start.

    https://taskandpurpose.com/military-tech/r9x-hellfire-missile-al-qaeda-syria

    "rather than packing an explosive payload, the kinetic warhead contains a halo of blades that deploy moments before impact "

    524:

    "why are they not demonstrating outside the Saudi & especially the PRC's embassies?"

    Most PRC embassies have a semi-permanent protest going on over exactly those issues.

    525:

    Arctic summers are short; the child has to survive, indeed thrive, during the winter as well.

    Key points as told to me years ago: • community involvement • important skills memorized and repeated • consequences emphasized • recognizing child as individual person

    Your average Western teenager would have trouble adapting. Indeed, Inuit teenagers have trouble bridging traditional and Western world-views (one reason for high suicide rate).

    Some interesting resources:

    https://www.nccah-ccnsa.ca/docs/health/FS-InunnguiniqCaringInuitWay-Tagalik-EN.pdf

    http://inuuqatigiit.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Childrearing-Practices-E.pdf

    A quicker (and less scholarly) read: https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/may/12/the-inuit-dont-shout-at-their-children-so-why-do-we

    A semi-related Ian Tamblyn song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7h2CX66Xf28

    And if you like throat-singing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNYTA6SV6tM

    526:

    For children on Mars, a sensible approach would stress automation. So - expensive equipment instead of expensive life support as far as possible. Being labor-intensive makes no sense at all, considerig the support costs. Just a few people, on birth control, building up fairly large redundant facilities and supplies so a single breakdown doesn't kill lots of people. Probably working off of a mix of nuclear piles and solar. No kids at all for, probably, decades.

    In terms of cultural fit, I'd be very wary of the Chinese stereotype of submissiveness to authority. It isn't that there is no truth to it, but the Western understanding isn't particularly accurate - at least from my impression - being fairly Chinese.

    A reasonable assumption is that Chinese people have no impression that authority will bend to spare them. In Korean movies, a jarring cultural shift involved some government officials plotting against some commoners. The commoners got wind of the plot and went public. I immediately assumed that it was a tragedy, setting up some revenge quest after the commoners were impaled. The movie continued with the officials fearing public scrutiny and putting off their plot. So, less of an expectation of sanctioned protest - more an expectation that you'll end up dead, along with your family, if caught rebelling.

    OTOH, overall, probably significantly less privately obedient than Westerners. Eg, back in the days of the Communist revolution, one significant problem for the anticommunists was quartermasters immediately selling arms to the communists. From observation, Westerners tend to be remarkably law-abiding and not terribly creative in their obedience.

    The biggest required cultural shift for Mars would probably be finding people obedient enough to actually, eg, not make a profit building stills in the algae plant and contractors willing to, eg, not short every piece of shipped equipment to the point where they probably wouldn't get caught. Executions would probably be the only path forwards - and might not be sufficient.

    527:

    About the D&D and its problems: here is an new article about diversity in Dungeons and Dragons. They are taking steps to be more diverse and I think it's a good thing.

    I bought the Eberron: Rising from the Last War and it's good stuff. The orcs and drow in that world are specifically not always evil. It's not a new world, I think it was first published for D&D 3e, but it's good that it gets new material.

    528:

    Moz hasn't yet attended the required session given weekly by Murphy.

    I have an ex who somehow managed to get pregnant despite using a diaphram for quite some time, but a new boy managed to dislodge it or something. Plan B seemed to work but somehow she discovered she needed an abortion anyway. She did not, however, end up with a kid.

    You seem to be suggesting that astronauts with much better resources and closer relationships with their doctor will somehow find themselves unable to get the same level of medical care that a public healthcare user in Australia had access to?

    That is where I struggle. Yes, it's vaguely possible that whoever does the surgical abortion will also screw it up, but the stats on that are so far against a baby being delivered alive that it's not a bet I'd take. You're right down in the "with a billion Chinese we get one of those a year" level of epidemiology. Much more likely it turns into an emergency hysterectomy or a miscarriage.

    Now, if you want to suggest that someone who has devoted a considerable part of their life to getting to Mars might decide that they will actively conceal the process in order to be the first person to give birth on Mars... that's less implausible. But still, I think, unlikely to happen in the first few hundred crew. If nothing else because it's very high risk and the chances of the child surviving are low. The best case outcome is that mother and child return to Earth as soon as possible because the PTB will be balancing risk of death on Mars vs risk of death in transit. On return to China it's likely both will vanish never to be seen again, while in the USA it's an open bet whether they* would end up dependent on income from selling their stories or carefully secluded for study/their own protection (remember that the US "save the children" people are enthusiastic murderers of adults). The "mother continues her career" option is not going to happen. The "baby dies within a month" option is IMO very likely.

    As has been pointed out, you just don't see unexpected pregnancies in the Antarctica overwinter crew let alone on oil rigs. Even counting the inevitable rapes, they just don't have the numbers to make the statistics work.

    • I don't think the kid will survive very long on either planet. Space travel in general and radiation in particular are unkind, but we don't yet have any evidence that any species can reproduce on Mars. Or in space. Any prospective "first gravid animal on Mars" will be smart enough to know that.
    529:

    https://www.militarytimes.com/military-honor/salute-veterans/2019/11/10/the-gi-bill-shouldve-been-race-neutral-politicos-made-sure-it-wasnt/

    There we go. Every public good, was blocked in every way because African Americans might benefit, so if the public good acts were passed, the legislative language and prohibitions worked really hard to keep African Americans from benefiting, starting even with social security -- domestic workers couldn't get it because ya, the south, etc.

    Over and over and over -- and even FDR couldn't / wouldn't be able to find the political firepower to get it through, anymore than getting through an anti-lynching law -- and guess what boyz and gals -- lynching imagery is proliferating along with actual lynchings of people of color in the uS RIGHT NOW.

    I am fairly off from two plus hours doing zoom about all these matters and am feeling pretty depressed about the state of the USA - and yet again an upsurge of hatred for that archfiend of white supremacy outliner, Thomas Jefferson. Gads there are so many reason to hate him -- read John Quincy Adams's Diaries if you don't believe me -- JQ who knew TJ from the time he was a child.

    530:

    Mars is NOT Antarctica. It is 18 months away with one way being the expected situation. It will be assumed a one way trip for the first 20 to 200 people. Maybe more.

    And you mention abortion as if the woman would want that. Maybe she doesn't. Force abortion on Mars. The PR disaster would be monumental. (I think that was a subplot of the movie Martian that they got correct.)

    I'm sorry but I disagree. But maybe you're right. I just tend to think you're being way too optimistic.

    531:

    Just a few people, on birth control, building up fairly large redundant facilities and supplies so a single breakdown doesn't kill lots of people. Probably working off of a mix of nuclear piles and solar. No kids at all for, probably, decades.

    And that's my point. If you want no kids for a decade or few you really have to go with sterilization.

    532:

    Something I thought about while listening to a both interesting and boring Teams Video on PowerShell, if you want people to raise kids the way the Inuit have done then you need people who grew up as Inuit. Raising kids isn't something you learn in a class or lots of classes. In many ways it is something you must learn by doing or at least observing. Kids are not widgets. They are unique being with all kinds of variations. Yes they can be raised in frozen waste lands, temperate prairie, deserts, rain forests, etc... But the people doing that raising (successfully) also grew up in the environment.

    So how many Inuit do we recruit as a part of the first 100 or so people?

    Kids on Mars will need to just not happen for the first decade or so. And can the Martian society deal with that then the introduction of them later, all in a wave? Good question.

    As Charlie pointed out somewhere back up thread if Musk is truly serious about this he needs to be funding some closed habitats in the same way he is doing Falcon rockets and their people ready bits.

    But space cadets don't think about society. After all what could go wrong? All the real problems are technology based so hard work and innovation can solve those. Society will just work. Right?

    533:

    Reading that paper, 5 kg doesn't seem to be the half of it.

    For instance, each person breathes out a kg of CO2 (depending on diet). That's going to need a kg of scrubber at least. You need two moles of LiOH for every mole of CO2 (plus a bit). LiOH is lighter than CO2, but not that much lighter. If you're going to go with some sort of regenerative scrubber, then it needs to be reliable enough that no chemical scrubber backup is needed. That's over a tonne per day just for scrubber.

    There's also no allowance for washing. 9 months, crew of 100, no washing?

    534:

    "Britain did not need slavery because it was cheaper to use near-serf labour in Ireland and India in agriculture."

    Britain in 1800 relied heavily on sugar imports from the West Indies. Sugar is an efficient way of getting edible calories into the newly industrializing cities when your food preservation technology is awful and your transport system inefficient.

    "Traditional" English foods like treacle, having sugar in one's tea, and even fruit and berry jams and preserves (which use lots of sugar), became much more common around then.

    Remember this is when the very poor could still starve to death - importing extra calories mattered!

    535:

    "really have to go with sterilization"

    I can't see this being a difficulty in any way.

    Tell the colonists "we don't know what the 9 month trip through space, followed by years of radiation on Mars will do to your gametes, but nothing good. So, if you want to go you should deposit some eggs/sperm, we'll tie your tubes/snip your vas deferens and send you on your way with a lead lined box that you can open when we're set up" (ie, when we tell you you can, and you won't have access to it until then, and chances are it will get bumped to the next flight, or the one after that, because it's a lot of mass and you won't need it right away).

    No one could seriously argue against that.

    536:

    Gasdive says: No one could seriously argue against that.

    You're replying to someone who appears to genuinely think that contraception cannot work and anyway the wimmenz are so baby-focussed that they would want to give birth in a remote radioactive hellhole.

    The sterilisation thing would tickle everyone from Catholics to libertarians (they're a hotbed of fragile masculinity if ever I saw one).

    DavidL says: Mars is NOT Antarctica... {it's more remote}

    And you're using that as an argument for people wanting to have babies there?

    You keep eliding the difference between "people will have sex" and "people will have babies". But you still haven't even attempted to explain how the medical support on Mars will be so basic that decent contraception won't be available, or why it can't work.

    Can we talk about sex that can't lead to pregnancy at some point? More accurately, why people without medical care or contraception wouldn't try it? Since you're

    537:

    gasdive And now it appears that DT encouraged the PRC to carry on with their camps. That Bolton, an old-fashioned right-wing War Hawk should denounce DT is ...... um, err ...

    Foxessa I know v little about T Jefferson ( Apparently he was NOT a "good guy"? ) - the one whom I do know something about, & despise, utterly, is Andrew Jackson - what an arsehole.

    icehawk People were starving to death in England ( never mind Ireland ) in 1847-9 ... somewhere there is the story of two men ( Brothers? ) who walked from Devizes to Swindon for work ( Which they got, courtesy of the GWR ) because 2 of their siblings/relatives had starved to death & a third was struggling ....

    538:

    That Bolton, an old-fashioned right-wing War Hawk should denounce DT is ...... um, er

    it’s like, someone offered Bolton $2M....for the book(1) & the takedown of the ‘orange idiot’

    (1)At least according to BBC world service overnight, whilst I’m attacked for mentioning open source details, Bolton/media is cleared to reveal “surely I can invade Venezuela?”

    539:

    It's almost unbelievable. If DT hadn't gradually accustomed us to outrageous behaviour, you'd never credit it of a president.

    540:

    The paper is based on shuttle flights, so around two weeks maximum. Washing done by a quick wipe down with a damp cloth every few days. I believe standard procedure for shuttle landings after long flights was for the ground crew to open the side hatch, then as many of them as could would run away fast as the smell from inside was not good. Much the same happens when a nuclear sub gets back from a long patrol.

    There's probably a Skylab era equivalent paper and an ISS version, the ISS at least doesn't rely on LiOH for CO2 removal though it has the capability as a standby. As you pointed out, the mass requirements for that is prohibitive.

    541:

    It's not just the mass - it's the inertia as well, as I am sure you know! Axes have the mass at the far end from the wielder and take a lot more effort than swords (which have it more-or-less uniformly distributed). I have no experience with using weapons, but do have using similar tools and know the effect well :-)

    542:

    Devizes to Swindon is 20 miles - a day's walk in summer, two in winter - that was routine, even when there was no famine. People also walked from Cornwall and Scotland to London for work, which is a serious commitment.

    543:

    Poop potatoes are not an inherently dumb idea: you get a very high yield, they're storable at room temperature, you can process them to make flour (of a kind) and extract starch and glucose with a little work ... but while they're a viable alternative carb source to grains, they're not nutritionally complete on their own.

    The scenario in "The Martian" just required $DOOD to keep from dying long enough for a rescue mission to arrive, didn't it? Not indefinite survival in good health, which is two different hurdles.

    Alas, I'm not a gardener, much less a nutritionist or an ecologist: I just know enough to shoot down the dumbest ideas.

    544:

    I suppose that I do need to explain :-( I agree that extended family or village parenting work better than nuclear family parenting, and there's a LOT more to it than that, but all that is orthogonal to my point.

    To repeat: I was talking about teaching the difference between "doing that will piss your father/whoever off" and "really, REALLY, never EVER do that", with the latter being things like letting the air out.

    Note that this is a social matter, as well as a parenting one, so that it affects society's treatment of childen generally, including the civil (including criminal) codes, as I indicated with my remark about stamping down hard on bullying and social rejection.

    The latter category needs to be restricted to where it really matters, where its reasons can be explained (even if the details can't be), where the authority figures also abide by them, and enforcement needs to be consistent.

    Most parenting and legal systems completely fuck this aspect up, so it is no wonder that children get confused. Inter alia, for proper human development, children need boundaries that they can bend and even break, to learn how rule systems work and to develop independence. The job of a good parent includes ensuring that they can do so withoutout permanent, severe harm - and that of a good sicial and legal system should do the same.

    545:

    EC Spot on My almost-consistent disregard for "Authority" stems from an incident when I was 10. I did EXACTLY as I was specifically asked & encouraged & supposed to do, from the instructiuons given. And was punished for it. School, of course ... really didn't help.

    546:

    Potatoes are probably the closest we can get to a complete food. And if you can grow potatoes you can grow other plants. Seeds are light and easy to transport. Dietitians are not in short supply. The other problems of a permanent habitat will probably be much harder to solve than food.

    547:

    But you still haven't even attempted to explain how the medical support on Mars will be so basic that decent contraception won't be available, or why it can't work.

    ALL contraceptives have failure rates. Didn't know I had to state this fact.

    You seem to think they will be infallible. I don't.

    548:

    That Bolton, an old-fashioned right-wing War Hawk should denounce DT is ...... um, err ...

    Bolton has an ideology. And a fairly consistent one that is somewhat coherent. At least the bits of it mess together.

    Trump's ideology is to win the news cycle and have people praise him and/or allow him to brag about himself. For real or imagined deeds.

    Even Bolton realizes that Trump is dangerous.

    Not that I don't think Bolton ideology is good. At all.

    549:

    Not that I don't think Bolton ideology is good. At all.

    Crap. Mentally switched mental modes while typing. Bolton's ideology is crap. And dangerous to us all. Just to be clear.

    550:

    Sure kids could be raised successfully on Mars. But at a huge cost in the early days. A cost (in time and materials and staffing) that it is very unlikely (IMNEHO) to be affordable to such a project.

    No mater who's method of child rearing you feel is correct.

    Which gets back to my point about kids and pregnancy would need to be avoided at all costs. With PR being a big part of that cost.

    551:

    And as an added point.

    Say you make the decision that the resources needed for a return from the surface would be better spent on bettering the setups on the ground. You might do the analysis and discover that it would vastly improve the situation on the ground if resources were allocated this way.

    I still would be assuming the first few trips would be round trips but after than maybe not for a while.

    552:

    Besides who knows what a Strange Child born on Mars would grow up to be like? Robert Heinlein wrote a whole book about that.

    In the manga and anime series Planetes the Moon-born children were a little odd, physically speaking but I think the oldest of them was about 12 Earth-years or so, there was no full-life experience to base any medical predictions on. They spent time in a centrifuge for bone growth and general physiological conditioning but most of their lives were spent in 1/6 gee.

    553:

    the idea that someone, anyone, would spend billions of dollars on a Mars mission and let prudishness or religious objections stop them slipping a few doses of "Plan B" into the medical supplies seems far-fetched to me.

    Me too.

    Also: a first batch of explorers (in a low-gee environment) can be selected for age and experience: it's not unreasonable to make post-menopause one of the requirements for female explorers in the initial years (it's unusual in mid-thirties, but quite common by late forties). Menopause comes with the concomitant risk of osteoporosis, but also reduces the dry cargo volume (how much do "tampons for 5 years" weigh, at initial one way to Mars shipping costs?). Oh, and insist on vasectomy for male explorers too. And for pre-menopausal women, supply an IUD or other long-duration contraception. (And spare IUDs—they're tiny—and Mifepristone tablets, in case all else fails.) The combination of "he's had a vasectomy, she's got an IUD, and they're both over 40" is a pretty good guarantee of no baby showers on Mars.

    Frankly, unless the initial expeditions are organized by a committee consisting of Mike Pence and the Pope, nobody's coming home with kids.

    554:

    That's going to need a kg of scrubber at least. You need two moles of LiOH for every mole of CO2 (plus a bit). LiOH is lighter than CO2, but not that much lighter. If you're going to go with some sort of regenerative scrubber, then it needs to be reliable enough that no chemical scrubber backup is needed.

    Reminder that you've got a cold sink conveniently close to hand (if you have a sun shade on one side of your ship), and that CO2 solidifies at 216 kelvins at standard pressure. You can in principle run the air through a countercurrent cold trap to take it down to -80 celsius then use waste heat from the refrigeration side to warm it back up to +20 celsius, minus the CO2 load. It takes energy, but not a huge amount of energy, and you don't have to carry all that lithium around.

    555:

    There's probably a Skylab era equivalent paper and an ISS version, the ISS at least doesn't rely on LiOH for CO2 removal though it has the capability as a standby.

    IIRC an article in New Scientist some years ago mentioned that the ISS leaks, slowly -- left to its own devices it would depressurize down to a non-survivable level in about a month, without top-ups.

    The last Skylab mission was jeopardized because, although they had CO2 scrubbers, they forgot about gut bacteria and CH4 (methane, in farts): by the end of the 84 day SL-4 mission, the atmosphere on board was getting dangerously close to 1% methane, at which point an explosive gas mix was in view. One of the requirements for reusing Skylab after reboost (cancelled due to delays in getting the shuttle flying) was to flush the atmosphere and then add some sort of CH4 scrubber.

    556:

    Here's a free e-book on "defunding" the police. I've read the first chapter and it seems pretty good.

    https://www.versobooks.com/books/2426-the-end-of-policing

    557:

    That may well be true, though never assume that people won't choose unreasonable objectives - in which case, the PR aspects could reverse. But it's a completely unrelated point to the one I was responding to.

    558:
    The important thing to remember is that we were the first to get rid of it - something that seems to have been lost in the noise.

    It's amazing how many people forget Haiti exists. I wonder why*?

    *No I don't, it's bloody obvious why.

    Greg, even if it only counts when white people pass laws France abolished slavery before the UK even banned the trade. (Napoleon un-banned it, which is one of the reasons Louisiana is a US state now.)

    559:

    but also reduces the dry cargo volume (how much do "tampons for 5 years" weigh, at initial one way to Mars shipping costs?)

    I wonder just what the medial supply cabinet would look like. At first I'd think of boomer subs and modern aircraft carriers. But the subs can go off patrol in an emergency (it would need to be big) and US carriers are regularly supplied by air. A friend did it 40 years ago. Mail all the way up to one flight that was nothing but a jet engine from Japan to somewhere in the Pacific.

    I guess you could start with what carriers started with 70 years ago and container ships now. Then scour the medical records of a broad sample that is somewhat representative of the first people to go to see what happens to them over a 5 year period.

    Do you take eye glass blanks and a compact portable way to grind lenses? Which leads to a way to test for what needs to be ground. There are at most 3 choices for frames. Small, medium, large. Maybe only 2. How extensive of dental tools? And so on.

    560:

    nonemouse If you un-ban it, then you lose all your bonus points, I'm afraid!

    561:

    gestures at the entire ignored first half that mentions Haiti

    Is this some sort of 'fnord' situation where you can't even see the word?

    562:

    Ok, Mars: first, when someone talks about "colonizing" Mars, they are not talking about "a base in Antarctica", they're talking about staying.

    Second, no, you're not going to send folks only over 45. When the state of Israel was created, my father's father REALLY wanted to go - sold his store under the El in Philly, moved to Atlantic City (not sure why)... and then found out they wanted young people to build the country. Esp. given the age bias in the tech industry, do you really think they won't take folks between, say, 25 and 40? Really?

    Third, people who go may not want kids ->when they go<-. I'll put money down on when some of them change their minds: when they've been there, say, five or more years, and Mars isn't someplace they've come to, it's home. Like when you go up on a rocket, and the world flips from flat to a round globe... it's a mental shift of perspective.

    Now, if (as I mentioned above) you dig your nice big caves (or expand existing ones), so you've got some radiation protection, why not kids?

    563:

    Mars needs Grannies? Really? That's as daft as the suggestions that, to save weight, the first explorers to visit Mars could eat parts of their spacecraft, if it was made of an edible polymer. Kim Stanley Robinson did a much better job than that.

    As for nutrition, humans require about 20-odd chemical elements to maintain life: CHOPKNSCaFeMgNaClMoMnCuZnBINiCoLiSeCr, roughly. Yes, most of these are required in traces, but you still need them. So the trick with a colony on Mars, or anywhere, is to have all of these elements cycling through your life support system in such a way that they end up in humans in the proper proportions to sustain life. If your life support system depends on vitamins being shipped up periodically, you are in trouble...

    Then there's the second level of necessary elements, things like large amounts of silicon and rare earths like gallium and indium to create the LEDs you'll need to run the greenhouses to power the nutrient cycling. You'll also need to start synthesizing computers onsite and also the electrical systems needed to run all this stuff, so rather large amounts of metals and chemicals for chip manufacturing are in order. Along with the structural elements of the greenhouse, of course. And the insulation.

    Then there's the uranium/thorium or whatever necessary to create the power plant to run it all, assuming you're running on nuclear. Otherwise, for Mars, perhaps wind turbines would be advisable? Given the dust situation, perhaps bladeless wind turbines (basically big swaying poles designed to maximize vortex induced vibration, and to capture some of the energy from that motion through an alternator) can be used, but you still need all the elements to set up an electrical system to power the lights in your pinkhouse (from the LEDs growing the plants).

    So basically, growing such a settlement is a massive exercise in finding elements in their wild state, refining them, and combining them in ways that are useful to everyone from engineers to nutritionists. That's an interesting skill set right there. Mining engineers, chemical engineers, horticulturalists and doctors will be utterly necessary.

    Finally, you need to plan for parties, and have at least 10%, if not 25%, of your food be surplus so that you can turn them into alcohol and munchies. There are three reasons for this: the obvious one is morale. The other two are that if your colony cannot function without everybody being in good shape (e.g. not drunk, hung over, sick, injured, or a new mom) and with everybody meticulously monitoring their food intake to keep the system running, then your colony will fail. The reason it will fail is because, without being able to consistently generate a generous surplus, you have nothing to fall back on when emergencies happen. Similarly, if your colony needs everybody working all the time to the point where no one can get ill or have a baby, it's going to fall apart in the inevitable emergency.

    Happy designing.*

    *And instead of whinging about packing tampons for fertile women, plan on growing enough hemp to produce the cellulose you need for these, plus for plastic feedstocks and the other thousands of things you can use hemp for. Or look up diva cup if menstruation has got you that bent out of shape. Sheesh.

    564:

    No hypocrisy. That's how I raised my kids.

    There need to be serious legal punishment for lying, or violating your Oath, for someone in office. No slap on the wrist.

    That, of course, would be a huge break from Earth.

    Oh, and no fundamentalists of any stripe.

    565:

    Bolton: a vile failure as a human being.

    However... how many choices of the Orange Hairball who he has thrown under the bus/stabbed in the back do we have to hear who've said, screw it, I'll get him, and told what was really happening before the ignorant idiots say, "well, maybe..."

    For that matter, how many folks in high positions of power under Obama did this?

    Listening for the crickets chirping....

    566:

    Sheesh

    My comments were mostly directed at the first 5 to 10 years.

    Growing hemp for non food shows up near the end of that period.

    Ditto large underground caves for play rooms and such.

    567:

    I wonder just what the medial supply cabinet would look like.

    You are a minimum of two and quite possibly four years from resupply in a screaming life-or-death emergency: redundancy is important.

    Practitioner-wise, it'd be sensible to have at least two doctors -- a GP with a surgical sub-speciality, and a proper surgeon who can also do something else (dentistry? opthalmology? GP's assistant?). If your primary surgeon comes down with an aggressive diffuse glioma or something they're SOL but you need to keep the colonists alive until the replacement surgeon arrives, which includes setting bones, dealing with frostbite ... and managing the surgeon's palliative care.

    You need a dentist. Not much in the way of prostheses or reconstructive surgery, but you can die of an infected abscess and dental ailments were a major cause of mortality in ancient civilizations. Maybe the ability to 3D print dentures. High quality bridgework might be a bridge too far.

    Opthalmology ... low gee/zero gee changes eye function and prescription, so you need some way of accommodating that. But there are some surprisingly useful adjustable lenses these days (where either the refractive index or the actual shape of the lens can be adjusted within margins in use). Forget contact lenses or keratotomy, just provide a bunch of adjustable lenses to fit most of the likely variation plus some standard frames. And have someone whose sub-speciality is opthalmologist (with enough clinical training to spot stuff like macular degeneration, retinal detachment, and glaucoma and do something about them before they lead to blindness).

    Pharmaceuticals ... that's hard, but you can cover some of the bases if you ship poppy and hemp seeds: papaver somniferum and cannabis sativa aren't hard to grow, the latter gives you hemp fibre as a by-product, and if you've got morphine and THC, you've got the basis for high-grade pain relief. The real problem case is going to be cancer. Astronauts tend to be older, they're in a high radiation environment, and surgery is not going to be a primary treatment option (it's only really useful if the cancer is localized and advanced enough to be visible). Our current drugs of choice consist of mall molecule cytotoxic agents and exotic antibody treatments, the latter of which automatically require i/v lines and a whole bunch of monitoring (plus of course that THC as an anti-emetic).

    The prognosis if you get cancer on Mars is, you probably die of it on Mars ... unless it's slow enough that you can make it to the very next ship home and arrive with Stage IV cancer (having been diagnosed with Stage I or Stage II).

    Upshot: I suspect early life on a Mars colony will both expose you to elevated medical risks and force you to endure them with limited treatment options equivalent to a 50-70 year trip back in time (in most cases).

    568:

    I strongly disagree. You want to either know there are caves there, seal them up, and move into them asap. I cannot see a colony ship have a hell of a lot of room for, say, 100 people, and you need the space for growing food and air.

    569:

    I'd like to remind you that the initial trips will be exploration, not colonization. They can plausibly use older folks, and won't expect to stay for more than 3-5 years before scuttling home and teaching the next wave (the actual first-wave colonists) how not to die rapidly.

    Semiconductors are incredibly small and light, in commodity terms. They're also ridiculously hard to make, to cutting-edge quality: we're talking about factories that cost on the order of $10Bn and require thousands of workers and highly specialized supply chains (the firms who make the measuring kit that maintains quality but that is only useful in semiconductor fab lines that cost $10Bn: maybe they make 5-20 instruments a year, and turn over only $100M/year as a result). Far better to leave the semiconductor fab line back on Earth until you can spare thousands of people to run them (and thousands more to mine and refine the rare earth dopants they rely on), and focus on stuff that weighs more and is much simpler to make on-site -- the PCBs, the transformers, the bulk PV cells (if you're able to package up a polymer PV printer for delivery to Mars).

    ... Uranium/Thorium/Plutonium are probably a big fat nope on Mars. But Mars could very well be the edge case that makes fusion reactors economically viable: far enough from the sun that PV efficiency is degraded, not enough atmosphere for wind turbines to be efficient, a lack of heavy isotopes for fission reactors ... and it's not going to need that much power until a few decades from now, by which time we ought to at least know what we have to do to make a goddamn working fusion reactor that works.

    PS: I totally forgot about moon cups: yeah, they totally work for periods (and are vastly more material-conserving than tampons or pads).

    570:

    bing

    I've got it: check out the caves (areologists), if you've got a nice big one that's stable... an inflatable habitat inside the cave (Hello, Bigelow Aerospace? I'd like a hotel or three of yours...)

    Then you've got time and room to build a higher air pressure behind it, and spray and seal concrete.

    571:

    That's probably what'll happen.

    Added twist: my preferred extra -- build your main colony at the bottom of Vales Marineris, 5km below mean surface level. That way you get significantly higher atmospheric pressure (i.e. less radiation at surface level) plus steep cliff walls you can drill into horizontally. Pick your location right and you can have multiple kilometers of rock shielding overhead, and also a slightly lower pressure differential (thereby reducing the speed of leaks a little). Use polythene dome farms and a fan and you might be able to jack the atmospheric pressure up to 50-100mbar of CO2, at which point terrestrial plants might be persuaded to grow (you're not going to be using winged pollenators, though).

    572:

    I agree that there's a difference between exploration and colonization. Unfortunately they've gotten tangled up in this conversation, and they need to be disentangled.

    As for the nukes, see my reference (#413) to the DRACO proposal by DARPA. The US Space Farce is evidently contemplating thermonuclear propulsion, I guess because someone read an old Asimov story or possibly because they want to put Boots on da Moon and Mars. Or something (outrun Russian/Chinese satellite killers?). So there's a push to nuclearize space. If they use a nuclear drive to get to Mars, it would be mildly illogical to run a exploration base without a comparable nuke pumping out watts and dissipating heat into the wind (or possibly ground, if the can lay out a nice long thermal exchanger on the surface).

    On the other side, we've got the ongoing saga of the Lockheed Compact Fusion Reactor which is in its fifth iteration and getting bigger each time (currently 18m long, 7 m in diameter). Purportedly, "pointing out that the current thinking in fusion research is that "bigger is better". According to Steven Cowley [head of the UK's national fusion laboratory], experience building other fusion reactors suggests that when machine size is doubled one achieves 8 times improvement in heat confinement, that is how much of the extremely high temperatures needed for the fusion reaction can be contained without e.g. heating the cooled superconducting magnets too much. Saying so Cowley questions the suggested small size of a working machine."

    That size issue (shipping large superconducting magnets to Mars?) makes fusion awkward for Martian exploration. Assuming someone's daft enough to set up a long term exploration base on Mars to begin with, and assuming they start smelting Martian soil for structural elements, then something like a bladeless wind generator makes some sense (cf: https://vortexbladeless.com/technology-design/), because basically you set up a vertical structure to vibrate as hard and reliably as possible in whatever wind that's passing, and you clamp the bottom of it into an alternator to generate electricity from the vibration, rather than from a rotor. Fewer moving parts, and less need for rare earth magnets and all the fun paraphernalia needed to set up a rotating wind turbine.

    It's not clear whether there's extractable uranium on Mars or not, but it's more common that silver on Earth's surface, and thorium is more abundant than uranium. While I happily denigrate the nuclear knuckleheads who want to use reactors to solve climate change here, as you point out, Mars is different. If PV, wind, and fusion are out, then you're stuck hauling energy out of rocks. Without fossil fuels, that's radioactive stuff. Personally I think wind might work and be simpler to build in situ. But whatever.

    573:

    Not thermonuclear propulsion (that's fusion-power): nuclear-thermal, i.e. using a fission reactor to heat reaction mass directly.

    A really interesting current trend in fusion research is that the big problem reactor designs face is plasma instability, and throwing scads of supercomputing power at the problem seems to pay dividends. We may end up finding that, as with genomics, fusion power is one of those technologies that is a theoretical possibility and a practical impossibility until it collides with Moore's Law, at which point suddenly progress goes non-linear.

    574:

    whitroth There WAS space cadet talk about roofing V marineris, wasn't there? Ah, I see Charlie is on to it ....

    575:

    Well, we'll need a railroad - monorail? up to the top of Olympus Mons, where I assume we'll build an observatory.

    576:

    Thermonuclear, nuclear thermal. Yes, I was being sarcastic, and you're right. It does seem to be straight out of an old Asimov story, though. The politics are of the same era as well.

    577:

    US Space Force has a badge, so they gotta come up with big budget projects for their generals to project-manage, right?

    578:

    Yes. And no "you're too young to know". If they are old enough to ask, they are old enough to get a straight answer.

    579:

    They've got big budget projects, since they basically seem to be the DoD space force by default (the head of USSF is currently the head of the US Space Command). AFAIK, they've also taken the section of the US Air Force that used to work with the National Reconnaissance Office. So they're not short of missions. Here's what I think is going on (note: I'm not military, so there's good reason to assume I'm wrong):

    The Space Force is under the Secretary of the Air Force, just as the Marines are under the Secretary of the Navy. So the space cadets are their own force, but they're in the second tier with the jarheads.

    The second problem is that the Space Force is currently a Chair Force. They don't fly manned spaceships, they pilot satellites remotely. The US Air Force has a culture of pilots rule, chair force drools, and the Space Force is still part of that culture.

    I can agree that getting the Space Force out from under the Air Force makes a lot of sense from a utilitarian perspective. They're dealing with different issues in different realms and space is too important to shortchange. But separation doesn't stop the status fights, just raises the fights to a higher echelon of unreality. And it's hard to be an independent military service when you don't get to aim things that go boom at adversaries on a regular basis.

    There might conceivably be a need for a nuclear-thermal drive on satellites. It could get them out of the way of a Kessler Cascade, for example. And if the Notional Competing Nations want to create Moon Base Alpha, then the US bros want to be able to match them, for national pride and all that.

    The problem with boots in space that the USSF would actually have to stand up an astronaut corps if they wanted them to ride rockets, because I don't think they have one at the moment. How they do that particular part isn't at all clear to me yet, especially if the US comes to depend on commercial launches to get people into space. But we'll see.

    It'll be real interesting if the USSF becomes America's first purpose-built hybrid warfighting service. It's well positioned for that role now. Arming and orbiting space cadets is actually a step backwards towards a more 20th century type of warfare.

    580:

    Speaking of Olympus Mons, I've got to point out that if it's a shield volcano that blew oodles of thin lava, it probably is lousy with lava tubes. I think SJ Stirling got there 20 years ago, but you could theoretically run a subway up the mountain if you were so, erm, inclined. You could also possibly seal up a tube and ram air down it periodically to increase the pressure.

    Another problem with Mars is that it's basically a huge chunk of cold rock, which makes for an unpleasantly large heat sink to live on. While the air pressure of the Mariner Trench is desirable, I suspect it might get a wee bit cold and dark in places down there.

    Conversely, living in a lava tube on the south slope of a big mountain might mean you get a bit of solar warmth, as well as the cold of the mountain beneath you.

    There's also the point that mountains on Earth are often fairly large aboveground aquifers (in a manner of speaking), so it's quite possible there's ice on the volcanoes. Or even water if they still have some geothermal activity.

    Plus you can put a spaceport at the top where the air is rather thin, even for Mars. It's only 18oN latitude, that's better than Florida on Earth.

    581:

    I know v little about T Jefferson ( Apparently he was NOT a "good guy"? )

    Author of the U.S. Declaration of Independence. 3rd President of the United States. Polymath and founder of the University of Virginia. Along with James Madison, the primary philosopher behind the American Revolution and the initial organization of the U.S. government. As president, responsible for the Louisiana Purchase, acquiring claim over central North America from Napoleon.

    Also, slaveowner. Hypocrite--privately critical of slavery yet participated extensively in it himself. And, arguably, a sexual predator--he had an ongoing relationship with a slave, Sally Hemmings, who was his late wife's half-sister and sired at least one child with her. (Indeed, Jefferson has both white and black descendants alive today.) She was his romantic companion following his wife's death, but nevertheless still his slave.

    By contemporary standards, particularly those of the Social Justice movement, Jefferson was a monster. By the standards of the period and relative to his contemporaries, he was an eccentric radical.

    TL;DR: like most historical figures, Jefferson was a mixed bag.

    Overview here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Jefferson

    582:

    I'm tempted to say: for medical personnel, get to veterinarians and train them enough to pass their boards as MDs. The reason is that vets tend to deal with more diverse crap than doctors do, so they're far less specialized (beyond large animal and small animal veterinarians).

    The basic problem on Earth is that medicine has fragmented, so it's generally about treatment teams rather than doctors doing all the work. Actually, nurses do the work, doctors do diagnoses, procedures, and other problem solving. Pharmacists then keep the doctors and especially the nurses from killing their patients, both by keeping them righteous on the biochemical part of the work and by coordinating among all the medicine order sets a particular patient so that the drug interactions don't hurt the patient too badly. Oh, and they check the labs regularly to make sure that the drug concentrations within the patient are in the active range.

    What we're looking for in a space exploration crew doctor is rather more like what veterinarians do now or what doctors did 40 years ago. If that's too distasteful, then you want to co-opt the medical crew from a medical vessel, or whatever they do on Antarctic bases.

    583:

    alyctes @ 514:

    "... if you ain't got space suits & and you believe you're on a wheel in space with vacuum all around outside, are you going to try to break out?"

    That's very IPCRESS. I'm reminded of OGH's previous comment that Deighton was a great writer of horror fiction.

    It wasn't Deighton (I don't think). I was thinking maybe Martin Caiden, but I couldn't find anything that sounded familiar in his bibliography. It was pretty much a straight up American astronaut/spy gets locked up in an inescapable Soviet gulag story until right at the end when he does manage to escape & exposes out how they created the illusion.

    Thinking about it, the "gravity" would have had to have been greater than 1G (1G + the centrifugal force of the spinning carousel) and his captors "explained" his apparent weakness (due to the excess gravity) as having been induced by a "virus" they injected into all of the prisoners to keep them weak & docile.

    Now I wish I could remember who wrote the book or its title. It wasn't really that good a book, just something I picked up to have something to read when I was on the road for the alarm company. I used to average one paperback sci-fi book every night I spent in a motel.

    584:

    whitroth @ 521: Axe, saw, or chainsaw?

    Yes.

    If axe, how heavy is your axe?

    The felling axe - 5.2 lbs; splitting axe - 9.2 lbs; sledge hammer - 16.4 lbs. I didn't weight the chainsaw, Pulaski, wedges or the peavy. I didn't want to have to make a second trip down to the basement to carry them up to the kitchen where my scale is located ... or multiple trips when I have to take them all back down.

    The extra mass adds momentum to drive through the wood billets when splitting.

    585:

    Allen Thomson @ 523: As long as sharp things are being discussed,

    Knife Missile! Maybe not quite Culture grade, but a start.

    https://taskandpurpose.com/military-tech/r9x-hellfire-missile-al-qaeda-syria

    "rather than packing an explosive payload, the kinetic warhead contains a halo of blades that deploy moments before impact "

    It's a problem fighting "non-state actors" who dilligently surround themselves with innocent civilian bystanders. Explosive warheads tend to kill the just along with the unjust.

    This will probably work until the bad guys figure out to only travel on a bus packed with women & children.

    586:

    Foxessa @ 529: https://www.militarytimes.com/military-honor/salute-veterans/2019/11/10/the-gi-bill-shouldve-been-race-neutral-politicos-made-sure-it-wasnt/

    There we go. Every public good, was blocked in every way because African Americans might benefit, so if the public good acts were passed, the legislative language and prohibitions worked really hard to keep African Americans from benefiting, starting even with social security -- domestic workers couldn't get it because ya, the south, etc.

    How does that apply to Whitroth's claim @411 that "too many people took advantage of the GI bill after WWII" or my assertion @486 that the claim was fundamentally flawed reasoning?

    If anything, it demonstrates that not enough people were able to take advantage of the GI Bill after WWII.

    I would point out however, that Jim Crow was a NATIONAL problem, not confined to the south. The south was perhaps more openly racist, but not more racist than the rest of the country.

    The Color of Law: A Forgotten History of How Our Government Segregated America by Richard Rothstein

    587:

    Thomas Jefferson was one of the worst President. Even in his own time people believed his presidency was a failure. He destroyed the navy that President Adams so laboriously got funded and built, leaving the US helpless against the Brits during the era that for the US concluded with the War of 1812 -- which we lost on land big time, and much on the water, except toward the end with the Chesapeake built privateers.

    Louisiana fell in his lap -- and he did nothing to get it. It was Monroe, though that fat lazy rat, Livingston, lied to steal all the credit and push Monroe out. Moreover it was an unconstitutional acquisition, which infuriated the Northeast.

    In his account books enslaved women -- some only numbers, not names -- who had borne Monticello and his other properties many enslaved children, which he sold to buy wine and books -- no longer able to bear children are accounted, literally -- it is written there, as "worthless." His labor force that aged or sickened out of productive life -- he halved their already small food rations. Entire families received a single blanket once every three years for them all. Virginia winters are COLD especially up in the mountains.

    He stabbed both Adams and Washington in the back, he paid political operatives to do his dirty work, then stiffed them and stabbed them in the back too. He ran and hid from the Brits. He never fought. He spent the entire war years and constitutional years in France. Adams forgave him, finally, but his son most certainly did not, nor did his grandson and greatgrandson. But Washington and Martha never did forgive him, though he tried to get them too, by pretending he'd never been disloyal, working for France, against Washington and the USA.

    He wrote the founding document of US White Supremacy, which is also a founding document of eugenics, that the Nazis took up fervently. In the Jefferson's Notes on the State of Virginia, which he wrote in France, and clandestinely published, and didn't want the people in the US to see, he laid it out. In his personal letters of how to manage a plantation (which he couldn't do to save it as it and the enslaved labor force went for his massive debts) he reckoned that the children an enslaved woman brought forth was worth far more than her labor in the fields, because the children she brought forth were worth more every year, and at age could be sold for far more than she and they ate. He bred his dear wife to death and then had many more children by a slave.

    He was mean and small minded, and cowardly.

    Yes, Washington too was a slaveowner and there are lots of events of him and slaves that are nasty too. But Washington was also personally brave, and he demonstrated, even with slaves sometimes, levels of honor and morality that Jefferson never possessed.

    Jefferson also destroyed Hamilton and created the party system complete with dirty political tricks. And he lived off of selling slaves his entire life -- he never made a cent as a lawyer or anything else -- but o did he live large with wine, books and everything around him so fine -- which actually, when you look at Monticello itself, it's quite tawdry and cheap and in so many ways a stupid ediface.

    588:

    Heteromeles @ 572: I agree that there's a difference between exploration and colonization. Unfortunately they've gotten tangled up in this conversation, and they need to be disentangled.

    As for the nukes, see my reference (#413) to the DRACO proposal by DARPA. The US Space Farce is evidently contemplating thermonuclear propulsion, I guess because someone read an old Asimov story or possibly because they want to put Boots on da Moon and Mars. Or something (outrun Russian/Chinese satellite killers?). So there's a push to nuclearize space. If they use a nuclear drive to get to Mars, it would be mildly illogical to run a exploration base without a comparable nuke pumping out watts and dissipating heat into the wind (or possibly ground, if the can lay out a nice long thermal exchanger on the surface).

    The DARPA proposal is for a Thermal Rocket, in this case one where the "Thermal" is supplied by a nuclear reactor. Nuclear Thermal, not Thermonuclear. They are not the same thing.

    It's probably going to be something very close to the Radioisotope thermoelectric generators used for long distance space probes where solar power was impractical.

    "A common RTG application is spacecraft power supply. Systems for Nuclear Auxiliary Power (SNAP) units were used for probes that traveled far from the Sun rendering solar panels impractical. As such, they were used with Pioneer 10, Pioneer 11, Voyager 1, Voyager 2, Galileo, Ulysses, Cassini, New Horizons, and the Mars Science Laboratory. RTGs were used to power the two Viking landers and for the scientific experiments left on the Moon by the crews of Apollo 12 through 17 (SNAP 27s). Because the Apollo 13 moon landing was aborted, its RTG rests in the South Pacific Ocean, in the vicinity of the Tonga Trench."
    589:

    See #573 and 576. I seem to remember an old Asimov/Heinlein story that used nuclear thermal space drives, so the idea may not be older than dirt, but it's probably older than NASA.

    590:

    the bottom of Vales Marineris, 5km below mean surface level

    Mars is very lopsided, most of the northern hemisphere is that far below the mean surface level. Current thinking is that a proto-planet smashed into what is now the north pole and blew most of the crust from the northern hemisphere into orbit, where a proportion of it condensed into a handful of Phobos and Deimos sized satellites, all but two of which have re-entered. Some of the larger of the more recent impact basins on the surface such as Hellas and Argyremay have been on the equator when they formed due to the spin axis drifting.

    Vales Marineris probably is largely a rift valley, but shows signs of water erosion which would have flowed out into the northern lowlands leaving only a few lakes behind in the valley

    Heteromeles @ 580: Olympus Mons might be OK for launching from, but it's a right pain to land on. The lack of atmosphere means landing has to be done entirely by rocket, landing on the northern plains gets you 26km more depth of atmosphere that can be used to slow down before lighting the blue touchpaper. If it was nearer the equator it would make a good site for a space elevator.

    591:

    No, I'm sure you're right - the hamsterwheel isn't Deighton. But the "convince the captive there's no point trying to escape" is pure IPCRESS.

    I don't know who your author could be.

    592:

    Maybe the ability to 3D print dentures

    I have 5 or 6 crowns. (All but one is good enough that I don't notice it without some exploring.) One was made in the office while I waited. But it was 3D machined from a block of something. And it was NOT a molar. Molars need to withstand some really enormous pressures and thus they get sent out to be made. But I suspect they could be machined if desired. The machine he used was abpout 35cm long and maybe 15cm wide and tall. And with some careful planning could be a part of a system for machining non medical parts.

    Printing I suspect, not so much.

    593:

    suggested characters:

    Cohen Barbarian Auditor of Gor (schwarzenegger's body, CPA's fussy persona)

    eldritch predators disguised in plain sight as urban street furniture: fire hydrants, British post boxes, Timelord's blue box, etc.; NYC-centric versions include: faux yellow taxis consuming lawyers, faux phone booths (long ago removed) that eat unwary tourists, faux cupcake shoppes luring Sex-in-the-City fans to their doom, etc.

    594:

    Also, slaveowner. Hypocrite--privately critical of slavery yet participated extensively in it himself.

    Re: TJ

    I've always wondered if he held a mental view that freeing his slaves was a good thing in theory but just couldn't afford it. Apparently he was always financially in debt to the point of living on the edge. I suspect his slaves were the credit that backed the large bank loans he had continuously during his life.

    595:

    Antarctic bases.

    They have an out where in an emergency they can almost always get someone out in less than a week. Expensive but they did it about 10 years ago.

    ISS is even more expensive but from there to a hospital is about 24 hours or less. The ride is a bit of an experience and the cost astronomical (of course!) but it can be done.

    Mars you're 1.5 to 3 years out depending on what ship is where when something goes wrong.

    I agree about vets but have to wonder how the rest of the folks on the journey would feel about them. :)

    596:

    Whitroth's claim @411 that "too many people took advantage of the GI bill after WWII"

    I think whitrouth was being sarcastic in that all those folks went to college and learned about life off the farm and too many became liberals.

    At least that's how I read it.

    598:

    suggested characters:

    ensourced/bespelled laptop which is semi-intelligent pet and/or minion... clamcase with teeth....

    ensourced smartphone as wisecracking sidekick... or worse yet spirit channeling your dead mother... nag nag nag...

    599:

    nuclear thermal space drives, so the idea may not be older than dirt, but it's probably older than NASA.

    Goes back to just after WW II. I'd expect to find at least informal discussions of the idea at Los Alamos earlier than that. See the reference list in https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/4098602 .

    Heinlein's Rocket Ship Galileo, 1947, used an NTR with zinc(!) as the reaction mass.

    600:

    Geez, do I have to put tags around everything?

    Too many people (in the estimation of the wealthy and the racist and in power) took advantage of the GI bill (my grandmother's house came through my father's GI bill benefit), and raised kids (protected from the harshness of the Depression) who believed in what they were taught (in school, of what America was supposed to be), and we got a generation of uppity kids, uppity ethnics, and uppity women who Didn't Know Their Place, (thought they were as good as Real People), and didn't tug their forelocks and say "yowsa boos" to their "betters".

    That's why they had to whack at the school system, and militarize the cops, and, with the default of New York City, bring back the program of "lowered expectations" that they'd been using to stop socialist revolutions around the world home, and "lower expectations" for the rest of us here.

    601:

    Don't necessarily agree with all of that.

    However, I will note, as they told us when my recent ex and I had the tour of Mt. Vernon, that Washington freed his slaves in his will.

    602:

    Dentistry for Mars colonists could be simplified by extracting each colonist's teeth on Earth followed by implants. Each colonist would be issued with a couple of sets of replacement toothcaps to cope with wear and tear and cumulative damage over the succeeding decades, a couple of hundred grams at most. Any dental work needed for implant socket replacement, gum disease etc. would be done on Mars by a dental technician with basic training plus teleconferencing with experts on Earth over a laggy video connection if needed.

    I have vague memories of a 1960s Cold War era SF story where a post-nuclear war survivor was a "prepper" and had all his teeth extracted before the bombs dropped, an apparently common procedure since the chances of getting dental treatment after the inevitable End of Civilisation was considered unlikely. He had several sets of dentures including at least one set of steel teeth for fighting with. This was written before implants became common though.

    603:

    Getting back to the original posting, it suddenly struck me that Steve Jackson's Illuminati game could be usefully updated under the New Management. Or, um, not.

    While looking for it on their site, I found out that they've got a kickstarted board game called Terraforming Mars. How very appropriate for all this.

    604:

    Let me note that everyone I know, my father, a close friend, and others, who have dentures, unanimously complain about them as uncomfortable, and take them out a lot.

    605:

    Interesting thought, along with the post a ways up, about innocent gamers shot by a SWAT team... who had a spell set up, but it needed a virgin sacrifice....

    Reading a story, and he threw out an interesting thought: if you write code as graffiti, and the panopticon sees it... would it execute it?

    How about a spell?

    606:

    Reading a story, and he threw out an interesting thought: if you write code as graffiti, and the panopticon sees it... would it execute it? Oooh fun! Probably all the deeper semantic analyses of surveillance images(/video/audio/smellrecords/etc) would be run a sandbox/jail, and so the graffiti would need to perform a jailbreak. Arms/defenses race. Graffiti-writers might win. :-) And if the panopticon is intelligent, it might be subvertable at a higher level, e.g. turned freedom-loving.

    Off to google now, to look for instances of someone doing something like this.

    607:

    I believe the title you're thinking of is "The Mirror Maze", James P. Hogan, fun to read, not enough fun to re-read.

    608:

    You mean all we have to do is write for(;;)fork(); on a wall somewhere? Nah, can't possibly be that easy...

    609:

    There's a PIDs cgroup for stopping those (except in very old kernels), used e.g. by Docker, or alternatively full virtualization.

    610:

    This is encouraging. The actual order[1] is fairly complicated, with a bunch of factors meriting exemption that will be gamed by the California right.

    NEW: Californians are now REQUIRED to wear face coverings in public spaces.

    Together -- we can slow the spread.

    Do your part. Wear a mask.

    LEARN MORE: https://t.co/xtXFwVeWc2

    — Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) June 18, 2020

    [1] GUIDANCE FOR THE USE OF FACE COVERINGS (PDF, June 18, 2020)

    611:

    Also, the backup scrubber weighs a 10th of what I said. I was tired when I wrote that, so forgive me that I went astray.

    612:

    Actually, take the cold trap low enough and it will freeze out methane along with all the stinky volatiles. Methane freezes about 30 degrees before oxygen and nitrogen.

    But I'd still like a backup.

    613:

    ‘ whatever they do on Antarctic bases. ‘

    From memory, the doctor overwintering in a Russian (soviet? It was a while back) base had his appendix removed by the tractor driver. Who was operating with a video-link to a surgeon in Russia.

    But if you want a versatile medical personnel, look at people who’ve worked outside the very-specialist well funded first world hospitals.

    A friend finished med school then spent two years volunteering for Medicins Sans Fronteirs, my wife’s aunt has volunteered for the Red Cross in refugee camps in various war zones. Quite a few doctors and nurses do similar. There you will find generalists who have done bloody everything, with or without the resources you would want.

    614:

    If it's the one I'm thinking of, he did it himself. There were some people from the base who passed him tools, but he did it. No video link, it was about the same time as Gagarin, so early 1961. I think he started off using a mirror, but it was too confusing so he did it by feel.

    Got a medal. Hero of the labour movement or some such.

    615:

    Oh dear Note that the high level of diabetes in this group is also singled out. I suspect a strong genetic component, as previously discussed.

    617:

    However, I will note, as they told us when my recent ex and I had the tour of Mt. Vernon, that Washington freed his slaves in his will.

    Coincidentally, that's Wikipedia's featured article today: George Washington and slavery

    TL/DR: He was a man of his time, eventually noticed this wasn't a very nice custom, but for years couldn't afford to free all of his slaves.

    618:

    Charlie Your take on this please? https://www.secularism.org.uk/opinion/2020/06/does-scotlands-justice-minister-realise-the-reach-of-his-own-hate-crime-bill Looks as though Scotland is bring a blasphemy law in by the back door. Maybe. Not enough inmformation.

    619:

    Pigeon @608: You mean all we have to do is write for(;;)fork(); on a wall somewhere? Nah, can't possibly be that easy...

    Ah yes, the classic fork() bomb.

    Then there was also the mkdir() bomb: for (;;) { mkdir ("x"); chdir("x"); }

    Someone ran that on the machine known as "munnari" back when it was an 11/780 running BSD 4.1, or so, I wonder if you mixed fork(), pthread_create(), and mkdir(), you could sneak past the panopticon's security???

    620:

    Well, you have to extract and restore the water, but that's a trivial tweak :-) I am pretty sure that methane could be dealt with almost as economically by passing the air over a heated element (preferably catalytic) inside a Davy cage.

    The problem is that I am sure that those aren't the only things that would have to be removed over the course of even a year and all those complexities need maintaining!

    621:

    I have a crowned molar that was produced in the dentist's surgery - and it's a small surgery. The original research on 3-D printing used milling, not extrusion, as did the machine that produced mine.

    622:

    As I understand it, modern malware detection systems are quite sophisticated. Some systems running even on Windows, for example, check executable files against a database of known ones, and if they do not find a match, pass the executable on to a service to analyze it further, either statically or even running it in an isolated virtual machine.

    This can happen in 'the cloud,' that is, the service provider has servers on the internet where the client software on the computer connects to. I'd suppose, without really knowing about that, that a simple fork bomb would be caught by static analysis, and that running it would in many cases find that.

    Of course here applies the principle that the attacker needs to succeed just once and the defender all the time. No system is inpenetrable, and I don't know how text strings from various camera systems are handled. There might well be that kind of bugs, or even some database drop errors. Any operator who has some inkling of security should however run at least some simple input sanitation and the very least have backups so that errors can be recovered from.

    My impression is, however, that many organizations do not have that kind of security. I would recommend against checking that unless you have permission, though having some graffiti crash systems in England would of course be somewhat hilarious.

    623:

    Implants are not dentures - I have a couple, and they are essentially hassle-free. HOWEVER. They aren't actually any more reliable than sound teeth, installing new implants is more than just a technician's job, but replacing any dubious ones by implants in advance would make sense. Replacing ALL someone's teeth by implants would take years and the person's life would be fairly miserable for that time.

    624:

    On the supercomputers I managed, and the better operating systems had enough controls to stop the more obvious bombs, including those mentioned. In some cases, they were built-in, and in other cases the administrator had to enable them. However, there were more subtle ones that brought those systems down, including one where I crashed the machine so hard that even the power-contol panel locked, and I had to go around flipping 60 A breakers :-)

    Very, very few systems have robust interrupt and cache (including TLB) handling, largely because the number of system developers that have much experience or expertise in those areas is small. Even if an interrupt- or cache-bomb doesn't crash the system, ensuring that a critical interrupt can't be serviced in time will bring the kernel service down, and equally few systems have been designed and tested to be robust against that. IBM MVS was, but I have not used another.

    None of the above needs any kind of privilege - merely knowledge, skill, malice and perversity!

    625:

    Implants are indeed not dentures - if they go wrong, they're a hellacious pain to sort out. My wife has had one of hers replaced, by a dental surgeon who wrote the book — at least, one of the books — and it took many months to complete, with a number of trips down to his surgery on Harley Street

    The original implant was a titanium tree embedded in a hole in the jaw, where the bone grew back in round the branches. When the replacement happened, the hole in the jaw ended up having to be larger, so a longer recovery time.

    My actual implant operation was done by a German dentist flown in for the purpose and working with my regular dentist. The preparation and crown work could be done without him, but the operation itself was a specialist job, one I'd not want done by someone over a video link with minutes-long lags. Better to go with a gap in your dentistry.

    (I'm pretty sure the specialist wasn't over just for me.)

    626:

    An implant that goes wrong/bad on Mars doesn't get restored to perfection, it gets removed and the hole plugged up leaving a cosmetic hiccup. Tough.

    Dentures would be better, for one thing it would be easier to manufacture replacements on Mars compared to implant hardware but I'm presuming implant technology and biologics will continue to improve over the next couple of decades before the first tranche of permanent colonists head out so less incidence of failures on-site and better repair engineering with simple tooling.

    627:

    I'm wondering if the panopticon AI would be susceptible to something like a QR code or a basilisk (of the Langford variety): An image that hacks the system by the very act of decoding it. Basically, one step beyond those weird makeups that supposedly defeat facial recognition systems.

    628:

    Mars early explorer selection criteria.

    Dental. No or very few cavities and thus fillings prior to selection. Years ago I read that about 1/10 of the US population seems to not get cavities or at least they are very rare. Maybe this attribute (if true) becomes a part of the selection process.

    My teeth would quickly bounce me out of this process. And on top of that I recently cracked a root on a rear molar and the extraction was scheduled for an hour in the office. I was there for 3. Turns out the roots splayed out enough that they couldn't pull it. It had to be cut up in place and the bits removed one at a time. Fun morning. This was just before the universe changed. Still not been in the see the specialist about what an implant would entail. Most chewing on the other side to avoid teh big hole in my jaw. Such things on Mars would be a bad thing.

    629:

    So did Nantucket, 1773 is the conventional date, though it is a bit more complicated, and I think Massachusetts was early as well. Though they then had to cope with Southerners working to over-ride their 'states rights' for the next ninety years. I have a kind of half sympathy with yon person Tingley because people don't keep a sense of proportion. For example, the British East India Company's own records say 'The Sack of Bengal' (which is what they called it) killed about twenty million people between 1765 and 1790 - some murder, some starvation and a lot of working mal-nourished people to death growing indigo for the cotton factories - a close equivalent to slavery, though not 'legally' the same. Another close equivalent to slavery is serfdom everywhere east of Saxony (Prussia, Poland, Russian and the rest) - also legalistically different, but not in any way which matters. For all that Charlie is right about statues and such - we deal with what is in front of us. What-about-ism is a way to complete failure, and getting a bit of sucess, right now, is much better.

    630:

    No natural teeth at all for would-be colonists means no cavities, no wisdom teeth extractions, no caries, reduced gum disease etc., one less problem to have to make contingency plans to deal with. If you're not willing to commit to that sort of sacrifice to start with then you're not committed enough to get on board Elon Musk's Jonestown^W Starship.

    It's not likely Mars colonists will be biting into thick juicy steaks any time soon after they land, any vegetables they grow can be boiled into submission before being sucked up through a straw so no teeth is a win. Smile!

    631:

    Some systems running even on Windows, for example, check executable files against a database of known ones, and if they do not find a match, pass the executable on to a service to analyze it further, either statically or even running it in an isolated virtual machine.

    Yup, my employer rolled out just such a system late last year, and switched it on this spring.

    Given that our development team writes applications whose signatures vary every time we recompile, this led to a certain amount of not-fun until the Security whitelisters managed to get some rules in place to let us do our job without unnecessary delays.

    Unfortunately, our product also includes installers to run on Windows PCs, so getting those to play nicely was yet more joy...

    ...on the other hand (crosses fingers, touches wood) we haven't had a major security breach for a while, so here's hoping...

    632:

    Yes. As with natural teeth. But the thing you are missing is that an implant has a no higher chance of failing and no lower of causing gum disease than a sound tooth, and extracting it is as hard as for a natural tooth. The ONLY reason for preventative implants is to replace teeth that are not sound.

    633:

    So. It seems the first 10 to 20 years on Mars, if not on a quick visit, will be a strange mix of modern life mixed with life as it was 2000-4000 years ago. Or how the unfortunate live in many places around the world today.

    634:

    Well, regarding semiconductors, while it's true that sending a state-of-the-art chips factory to mars would be impossibly expensive, there is also the fact that lower grade semiconductor printers can be quite a lot cheaper and much more compact.

    In industrial automation there is a lot of space for smaller simpler chips, 8-bit microcontrollers, the equivalent of a 8086 or even a z80, that could be produced in place.

    Really, considering the notorious failure modes of more complex automation systems, I would design at least the groundwork of an engineering system on such a colony to be reliant on the simplest components... you can always have a higher layer of automation coordinating stuff, but I would not want to install Windows, especially a networked one, on each airlock interface.

    Moreover, the same technology you use to print lower-grade chips, can also be used to print solar cells: I don't know much about the current status, but I know that at least for a while most of the solar cells production was covered using old dismissed microchip printing plants.

    And of course, there are also concepts like the Minimal Fab sold by a consortium of Japan silicon operators: less useful for printing square kilometers of solar panels, but likely sufficient to keep the server farm of an off-world Mars colony working decently well.

    635:

    This will probably work until the bad guys figure out to only travel on a bus packed with women & children.

    Already happened.

    Those wedding parties the USAF keeps attacking in Afghanistan?

    Partly it's because an AK-47 is a redneck firework dispenser and groups of women and children aren't allowed out in public without an armed escort of male relatives.

    But partly it's because in a tribal society, alliances are tribal, and a wedding is an opportunity for a big conference between distantly-related folks who might hook up for a raid on the neighbour's goat ranch or opium poppy farm. So you get high-up Taliban leaders hanging out with each other at weddings, Because. And the CIA intel cann't distinguish between a wedding (99% civilian, potential for collateral damage: guaranteed) and an armed escort party for a Taliban leader, because the Talib don't follow professional western military traditions.

    The idea that the military are separate from and distinguishable from the population is a relatively recent Western innovation.

    636:

    Let me note that everyone I know, my father, a close friend, and others, who have dentures, unanimously complain about them as uncomfortable, and take them out a lot.

    Yup. I broke an eye tooth when I was 13 and wore a dental plate until I was 26. Getting it replaced with bridgework was a hugerelief.

    Nojay's suggestion to "yank everyone's teeth and replace with implants" doesn't really solve gingivitis or abcesses: if anything it may make those problems worse (and they're potential killers: septicaemia and bacterial endocarditis often get started when mouth bacteria get into the blood circulation).

    637:

    Well, you have to extract and restore the water, but that's a trivial tweak :-) I am pretty sure that methane could be dealt with almost as economically by passing the air over a heated element (preferably catalytic) inside a Davy cage.

    Yes, but why waste valuable methane?

    It's the fuel for the SpaceX Raptor engine which is (sorry) the most likely way any humans are going to get red dirt on their spacesuit boots any time soon. Part of Musk's plan (such as it is) involves figuring out how to manufacture fuel and oxidizer for the Starship methalox cycle on Mars. If they can't do that, nobody's coming back from the surface any time soon.

    Humans don't produce much methane but every few litres helps.

    638:

    It's not likely Mars colonists will be biting into thick juicy steaks any time soon after they land, any vegetables they grow can be boiled into submission before being sucked up through a straw so no teeth is a win. Smile!

    I know you're exaggerating for affect, but you really could do with reading up on Ancient Egyptian dentition. Hint: no dental caries to speak of, and precious little gum disease in modern terms ... but dental damage killed a hell of a lot of the population.

    A lot of it was due to grit in the badly-milled grain they baked bread from: their diet wore teeth down to flat stubs within 40-50 years.

    But -- this is a big but -- our Mars colony's first-iteration diet isn't actually 100% predictable before they set out (some crops may flourish, others may tank, and they'll have to go with whatever works best). And in particular, we don't have a 50 year lead time to figure out precisely what the long term dental side-affects are: they'll be too busy trying not to die of scurvy or chronic Vitamin A overdose or something.

    639:

    Really, considering the notorious failure modes of more complex automation systems, I would design at least the groundwork of an engineering system on such a colony to be reliant on the simplest components

    Yep.

    Also the computing architecture in general use. You've got a bunch of bright, numerate, highly-educated generalists who all speak a common language. So you can in principle ditch a ton of shiny UI stuff, plus support for extras like speech recognition or multitouch, and go for a robust architecture based on a command line with GUI only for applications that require visuals (e.g. CAD). By all means schlep along iPads or whatever for entertainment, but the core should be something that the colony can hope to duplicate/repair within a generation. Maybe a reincarnation of MULTICS running on a dedicated 64bit CPU made using a 45nm or larger node size (more robust against radiation).

    Thing is, it's probably easier to teach your (bright, generalist) colonists how to use a complex piece of machinery that's simple to make (or repair), than to teach them how to make (or repair) a complex piece of machinery that's simple to use.

    640:

    Point of information: the distance between Mars and Earth varies from 3 to 22.5 light-minutes, average of 14. Double that for a round trip.

    That is far too long to attempt any kind of synchronous communication or telepresence. Frequent video/audio/text messages, sure, but if the doctor wants a specialist watching over her shoulder or the unruly teen needs to chat with a real psychiatrist - it's not happening.

    642:

    a robust architecture based on a command line with GUI only for applications that require visuals (e.g. CAD).

    DOS6.22 plus WfWG 3.11 fits that requirement nicely, and it all fits in less than 640k of RAM. Win!

    643:

    The penny has finally dropped as to why I'm so uncomfortable with the "Statues" issue & even more with "aplogising" for something that someone at least 6 generations back may or may not have done. Christianity & N Korea. The latter divides its society on the basis of what your ancestors did in the years prior to 1945 & you can't escape - it's fixed. The former, of course claim that the sins of the fathers shall be visted upon the children & grandchildren. And it's all bollocks. Exception: The USA, where a deliberate, consistent, concerted effort was made, up to the present day, to keep & maintain the social structure of the Old South, as far as possible.

    644:

    Why on earth would vegetables need boiling into submission, anyway? From what I have seen of research into growing things in moondust, and what I know about soil and composting toilets, I don't see a huge difficulty in growing at least SOME fresh vegetables. But, as you say, some will succeed and others won't, and producing a complete diet might well be tricky.

    645:

    "Many organizations"... are you including the US NSA in that, who had huge amounts of their stuff compromised a couple years ago?

    I really have almost no trust that an AI, or any sort of surveillance/OCR software is going to have built into it this kind of basic protection against the old traditional system crashers. Actually, the \0 (that's a null char, end-of-string indicator in C) might hurt badly.

    Alternatively, esp if it's in fancy drones, they won't have the processing power to be that careful.

    And if the code you write is nothing more than a non-maskable interrupt that points to a null, and cause the system to crash or power down immediately, it's going to kill everything looking, and they'll come up, and wash, rinse, repeat.

    646:

    Heteromeles @ 589: See #573 and 576. I seem to remember an old Asimov/Heinlein story that used nuclear thermal space drives, so the idea may not be older than dirt, but it's probably older than NASA.

    So? That still doesn't make it a "thermonuclear" rocket.

    647:

    sigh

    You're sending 100 folks to Mars. Why would one or two or three of them NOT be doctors, and why not a single dentist? Sounds like negligence to me.

    And they can certainly know most. Let me insert here how I miss my old doctor (old - he's younger than me) in Chicago. Family practice, DO. Oh, and he's a surgeon. Oh, and he does adjustments. Oh, and he took care of EVERYTHING for me, except when he called in the oncologist to handle the radiation and chemo.

    In other words, a real family practice (as a former partner of his put it, "it's not like a specialty, anything can walk in the door, and you get to deal with it").

    A couple-three of them, and it's covered.

    648:

    alyctes @ 591: No, I'm sure you're right - the hamsterwheel isn't Deighton. But the "convince the captive there's no point trying to escape" is pure IPCRESS.

    I understood that part.

    I don't know who your author could be.

    Yeah ... I don't either. The other point is that Len Deighton is a very good writer. This book was definitely not up to Len Deighton's quality of writing. Hell, it wasn't even up to Martin Caiden's level ...

    Come on gang ... I'm sure I'm not the only one who reads trash level SciFi when there's nothing better available. Someone of you has to have read the same book.

    FWIW, another story I remember ... I think approximately Korean War vintage ... that used the conceit of infecting prisoners with a virus to keep them weak & docile concerned POWs infected with some weakened variant of polio virus (another reason I think it was an early 50s story).

    Just to show there were no hard feelings, the POWs came up with the idea of creating a grand feast for the guards.

    The main dish was a tureen of Borscht ... into which each of the POWs had contributed a few drops of their own blood. And somehow the guards were infected with the full strength virus, making it easier for the POWs (immune to further infection from the virus) to overpower them and escape.

    649:

    whitroth @ 601: Don't necessarily agree with all of that.

    However, I will note, as they told us when my recent ex and I had the tour of Mt. Vernon, that Washington freed his slaves in his will.

    Did they also mention that his heirs refused to carry out that provision of his will?

    650:

    "You're sending 100 folks to Mars. Why would one or two or three of them NOT be doctors, and why not a single dentist? Sounds like negligence to me. "

    You can bet your sweet ass there will be at least four doctors out of those hundred, likely many more, given the amount of physiology to be studied.

    ESA has been staffing the Concordia station on the south-pole with a doctor for years now, notably for the winter-crew which apart from the light-delay might as well be on mars, and usually those doctors blog about it:

    https://blogs.esa.int/concordia/2019/11/01/the-last-night/

    651:

    Or that the Washingtons made extraordinary efforts to recapture the escaped slave Ona Judge?

    They didn't use the courts, because that would have left a public record, but they weren't adverse to trying a bit of kidnapping when persuasion failed…

    Never Caught by Erica Armstrong Dunbar is a good summary.

    652:

    The latter divides its society on the basis of what your ancestors did in the years prior to 1945 & you can't escape - it's fixed. The former, of course claim that the sins of the fathers shall be visted upon the children & grandchildren.

    You're way too restrictive. This is how most societies on the planet have operated throughout history.

    653:

    No memory protection to speak of, crashes like a very crashy thing indeed, trivially prone to viruses, doesn't have any kind of software package manager or multi-user capability.

    Now, if you'd said OS/2 2.0, that might be credible. Or System 7 UNIX (which can run happily on a 286 with 1Mb of RAM and a 20Mb hard disk) ...

    654:

    Tim H. @ 607: I believe the title you're thinking of is "The Mirror Maze", James P. Hogan, fun to read, not enough fun to re-read.

    Maybe not. I took a quick look at the synopsis at Goodreads and it appears to have a female protagonist. The little bit I remember about the book it did have the generic male hero protagonist.

    OTOH, I've probably read it, because when I found a good book I'd read everything else by the same author. It takes a lot of books to feed the habit when you're on the road as much as I was back when I worked for the alarm company. I liked Hogan's "Inherit the Stars".

    655:

    No memory protection to speak of,

    Of course there is the group who thinks of this as a attribute, not a bug.

    "I don't write code with bugs so shut up and go away and let me code."

    Always fun to be around.

    656:

    Bill Arnold @ 610: This is encouraging. The actual order[1] is fairly complicated, with a bunch of factors meriting exemption that will be gamed by the California right.

    NEW: Californians are now REQUIRED to wear face coverings in public spaces.

    Mandatory starting at 4:00pm EDT in Raleigh, NC TODAY 19 Jun 2020.

    Unlike some states, we do not have the Governor & Legislature passing laws prohibiting local authorities acting in the best interests of their residents.

    It may not be needed in some rural areas of the state, but where people are concentrated into cities it is ... and mayors & city councils are free to do what has to be done for their local communities.

    657:

    icehawk @ 613:

    whatever they do on Antarctic bases. ‘

    From memory, the doctor overwintering in a Russian (soviet? It was a while back) base had his appendix removed by the tractor driver. Who was operating with a video-link to a surgeon in Russia.

    I remember that story (or a similar one), but the doctor with appendicitis was an American, and the operation had to be done because the NY Air National Guard unit tasked with logistical support for U.S. Antarctic bases couldn't get a C-130 in there due to inclement weather. They were able get an aircraft in there a few days later to medivac the "patient"

    The NY Air National Guard unit has a basing agreement that allows them to fly out of New Zealand. Where do the Russians base their supply flights? Do they even have supply flights?

    I do know that if the Russians or anyone else who has a research station down there had an emergency & couldn't get an air asset in there, the NY Air National Guard would assist in any way they could, including dispatching one of their C-130 aircraft on a medivac mission if that was what was needed.

    658:

    Also the computing architecture in general use. You've got a bunch of bright, numerate, highly-educated generalists who all speak a common language. So you can in principle ditch a ton of shiny UI stuff, plus support for extras like speech recognition or multitouch, and go for a robust architecture based on a command line with GUI only for applications that require visuals (e.g. CAD).

    Considering the number of people in this world, even those otherwise considered "bright" "numerate" or "highly educated" who struggle with the computers we have expecting them to function effectively / efficiently an a long forgotten era of computers is likely a dream.

    By all means schlep along iPads or whatever for entertainment, but the core should be something that the colony can hope to duplicate/repair within a generation. Maybe a reincarnation of MULTICS running on a dedicated 64bit CPU made using a 45nm or larger node size (more robust against radiation).

    Or, choose something modern with a ton of documentation and tutorials available - Linux.

    Open source, so you can fix bugs yourself (if you have at least one computer nerd), and you can in theory port it to whatever minimal hardware you end up making.

    With the added advantage that if your screens start failing and you can't replace them, you can just ssh/forward the gui to a machine that works.

    But in the meantime, get a custom ARM soc with slightly better specs than a Raspberry PI and send to Mars in the thousands given how small they are.

    659:

    Some of the slaves, at least, were apparently freed. no further data.

    660:

    Please note that I don't have a horse in this race. Being from Philly, my Founder's Ben Franklin.

    662:

    Real programmers' code always runs right the first time.

    Alternatively: I'll write the code, then throw it on the machine, and fix everything in a 30-hr debugging session.

    663:

    JBS Story appeared in "Analog" a very long time ago .... late 60's early 70's I think

    664:

    Charlie Stross @ 635:

    This will probably work until the bad guys figure out to only travel on a bus packed with women & children.

    Already happened.

    Those wedding parties the USAF keeps attacking in Afghanistan?

    Partly it's because an AK-47 is a redneck firework dispenser and groups of women and children aren't allowed out in public without an armed escort of male relatives.

    But partly it's because in a tribal society, alliances are tribal, and a wedding is an opportunity for a big conference between distantly-related folks who might hook up for a raid on the neighbour's goat ranch or opium poppy farm. So you get high-up Taliban leaders hanging out with each other at weddings, Because. And the CIA intel cann't distinguish between a wedding (99% civilian, potential for collateral damage: guaranteed) and an armed escort party for a Taliban leader, because the Talib don't follow professional western military traditions.

    The idea that the military are separate from and distinguishable from the population is a relatively recent Western innovation.

    The Taliban and jihadists everywhere may not care about killing civilians, but Americans do.

    The whole reason for the bladed Hellfire is to avoid those Afghan wedding incidents. All of the incidents I'm aware of were the result of attacking a person with a missile having a high explosive warhead, with the result that not only was the person killed, but everyone within 10 - 50 meters of that person was killed ... or wounded.

    "CIA intel" CAN distinguish between a Taliban leader and a wedding party.

    What they can't do is make a high explosive warhead that will kill only that Taliban leader.

    So, as Americans do, the DoD went looking for a technological answer to allow them to kill that Taliban leader without creating an Afghan wedding incident; something that didn't have a high explosive warhead.

    When is the last time you heard of such an incident where a whole wedding party was killed to get one person attending? It's been a while. It's been a while because the DoD found a way to avoid it and still kill the jihadist leaders.

    And I think the idea that the military should not surround itself with innocent civilians as human shields is a GOOD innovation.

    But, while I believe that, I also know those other guys are going to find ways to use "innocent civilians" as human shields once again, just as soon as they can figure out how to do it.

    665:

    I knew Jim Hogan. (He died a few years ago.)

    He got cancelled. It wasn't the Velikovskyanism (although that was kinda crankish). But later on he got into young-earth creationism -- classic Engineer Syndrome: I design things, this is a thing, therefore someone designed this -- and then into contrarianism, which culminated in his conversion to holocaust denial. Nope, just nope.

    666:

    Didn't think you did — was wondering what type of information the estate you visited made easily accessible to the public.

    667:

    If I wanted an intel-based OS with no memory protection I'd run TempleOS. At least it looks interesting (even if the design values are vomitous

    668:

    Nojay @ 642:

    "a robust architecture based on a command line with GUI only for applications that require visuals (e.g. CAD)."

    DOS6.22 plus WfWG 3.11 fits that requirement nicely, and it all fits in less than 640k of RAM. Win!

    Not entirely. If you wanted to run programs you were going to need some kind of DOS memory management.

    PS: Who owns the rights to Windows 3.0, 3.1 and derivatives? I bet it's not who you think it is.

    669:

    mdlve @ 658: Considering the number of people in this world, even those otherwise considered "bright" "numerate" or "highly educated" who struggle with the computers we have expecting them to function effectively / efficiently an a long forgotten era of computers is likely a dream.

    If I could ever come up with a way to program a computer so it would do what you want it to do instead of what you tell it to do, I'd be the world's first $Trillionaire.

    670:

    A friend finished med school then spent two years volunteering for Medicins Sans Fronteirs, my wife’s aunt has volunteered for the Red Cross in refugee camps in various war zones. Quite a few doctors and nurses do similar. There you will find generalists who have done bloody everything, with or without the resources you would want.

    That's embarrassing that I'd forgotten about MSF. I give money to them, and you're quite right.

    I'd thought about the problems of feeding refugees from compact food sources, and here we're talking about a practice ground for training really good general practitioners.

    It does look like the road to space runs through terrestrial refugee camps at least as much as it runs through high tech labs and the military.

    Nice thought, that...

    671:

    Charlie Stross @ 665: I knew Jim Hogan. (He died a few years ago.)

    He got cancelled. It wasn't the Velikovskyanism (although that was kinda crankish). But later on he got into young-earth creationism -- classic Engineer Syndrome: I design things, this is a thing, therefore someone designed this -- and then into contrarianism, which culminated in his conversion to holocaust denial. Nope, just nope.

    It's a shame when someone goes off the rails like that. I enjoyed those of his books I read. Some of them were even entertaining enough to read again. But I never forgot they were fiction.

    672:

    I can see a graffiti hack of video recording systems implemented as a part of some kind of heist caper. Delete all files from x day, or copy files from somewhere else.

    To be really tricky they would have to have some knowledge of the information processing system in the panopticon, and work with that. Maybe have some deniable fifth column inside the system who can innocently cover the tracks somehow.

    For story purposes there could be the appearance of random snippets of code spread all over the city in a carefully laid out order that inadvertently forms a command once processed centrally. Perhaps the code could be hidden within entire sentences (i.e. all the letters in green should be assigned to a file, then that file should be executed).

    Fun could happen if the graffiti doesn't get taken down and runs again the next cycle causing unintended havoc. Or if a greengrocer goes out and repaints his building the morning of the heist, thereby changing the function of the code in some small but crucial way.

    673:

    ‘ Ancient Egyptian dentition ‘

    The same was true of pre-contact Maori.

    High-born Maori were very fit, well-fed, relatively free of infectious diseases. Early European visitors to Aotearoa raved about their warrior physique.

    But by the time they hit their 40s they were very likely to get gum diseases as their teeth wore out due to grit in the daily diet. Infected abscesses which turned fatal without antibiotics. Kumara was the main starch, and given the cooking tech they had it came with a fair bit of grit that slowly wore down teeth.

    That mythic heroic age - they don’t mention the dying of lack of dentistry.

    The eponymous hero of “The Postman” has a deep fear of gum disease. Wandering alone after the apocalypse he brushes his teeth regularly and carefully. Perfectly rational behaviour.

    674:

    If I could ever come up with a way to program a computer so it would do what you want it to do instead of what you tell it to do, I'd be the world's first $Trillionaire.

    We always called that wanting a DWIM button spec.

    Do What I Mean

    675:

    That really highlights just how big the changes due to the pandemic will be. Even if (as can happen) TPTB learn the wrong lessons.

    676:

    Velikovskyanism ... young-earth creationism .... contrarianism, which culminated in his conversion to holocaust denial.

    Wow. As someone who spent 10 years give or take whacking at the YEC crowd (people I personally knew) I never saw THAT path taken.

    Now my mom was likely a devote of Velikovskyanism after doing a quick rad about him but I don't remember seeing any of his work when going through her debris/estate. But it might have been then and tossed by another of the dozen or so of us cleaning things up.

    677:

    They were able get an aircraft in there a few days later to medivac the "patient"

    Possibly this flight? Love undercomplicated planes like the Twin Otter.

    678:

    ... getting the Space Force out from under the Air Force ..

    The US Air Force, the last home of English units. Does anyone know if the Space Force went metric ?

    679:

    we'll tie your tubes/snip your vas deferens and send you on your way with a lead lined box that you can open when we're set up

    Lead is for dentist's chairs. In a long-term space voyage, your best radiation-proof location is at the center of a large tank (full of water which you needed to have anyway).

    Water also has the advantage that it can be moved from tank to tank (in case of a highly directional threat, such as a solar flare). And, it doesn't slowly denature, like reactor pressure vessels.

    680:

    Most PRC embassies have a semi-permanent protest going on ...

    Forty years ago, I lived in a capital city, and decided to photograph the signs that embassies have out front. There were a LOT of them in town, and I thought it would make a nice image collection.

    I got to have quite a few polite conversations with dangerous people, wondering why I was near their door, and who I represented. Apparently embassy security is NOT a new phenomenon, even if it doesn't get a lot of press. About a year after that, a lone Armenian shot the Turkish ambassador, so mobs aren't the only threat.

    681:

    Actually, the colonies created by European colonial empires are a very bad model, because they very rarely established colonies where there weren't any people.

    A counter-example would be the French colonization of Quebec. Yes, there were natives, but for the purposes of colonization, that pretty well didn't matter. They were incredibly organized: they made sure to send eg blacksmiths, and they sent surveyors in first. In fact, many of the original land parcel boundaries can still be seen, along the south shore of the St Lawrence River.

    682:

    That's a shame. I liked Hogan's work.

    Velikovskyism? Really? I read that, or at least read/skimmed his book when I was 18 or 19... Jupiter spit out Venus in historical times? And Venus rolls around the solar system, and give a 40-yr long bolt of lightning to the Earth, to lead Moses & co on a completely lost path (they could have done it in under a year or two)?

    I find if far more reasonable to hope for the Planet Porno, ruled by the Evil Emperor Wang, to be on his way, to hit the Earth with a sex ray (which will destroy all fundamentalists of all stripes....)

    683:

    I knew a guy - non-famous, working in software development - who followed the same ideological path. I think he's a QAnon fan now. Hogan wasn't a one-off.

    684:

    I'm gobb smacked by the number of people I went to high school with who have exposed themselves as QAnon. Unsettling. It's like they are all pod people.

    There's an Atlantic article on Trump rally attendees. Be afraid. Be very afraid.

    685:

    Some comments and questions on a variety of topics folks mentioned ...

    Dental health on Mars - a sun lamp might help keep the tooth decay bacteria at low enough levels to prevent cavities. Besides you'll need the sun lamp for daily dose of VitD anyway. Just say 'ah' ... Also avoid nuts - there's some evidence that some nuts contain an acid (phytic acid) that's especially (ahem) hard on dental enamel.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7183798/

    Maybe our Mars explorers/settlers need proven-to-grow-under-Mars-conditions GMO'd foods before they're shipped off because a lot of foods that contain valuable/necessary nutrients also unfortunately contain compounds that block the absorption of other necessary nutrients. Since it's highly unlikely that the first explorers/settlers are going to be overwhelmed with food choices so the safest alternative is to make every bite/calorie count as much as possible.

    https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/nutritionsource/anti-nutrients/

    Can't talk about Mars colonization without talking about stress. Also can't talk about food without discussing dessert which means chocolate! As long as NASA or whoever is going to have to do some GMO-ing if they want their Mars explorers/settlers to survive in sufficiently good health and spirits to get the job done over at least the first 10 years, then NASA/whoever will also need to develop some GMO'd cacao seeds. Who knows - with the level of relaxation this food can produce, it might even be a good back-up pain therapy/Rx.

    https://www.hormone.org/support-and-resources/resource-library/hormones-and-chocolate

    Hormone producing foods (e.g. soy for phyto-estrogen) would also be useful to have on Mars for menopausal female crew and not just to manage hot flashes.

    How much food is enough? In general, males need about 12-15 calories per pound for very light activity, women need maybe one calorie less per pound (because lower muscle mass density overall). Therefore unless this Mars mission needs a bunch of body builders built like Arnold Schwarzenegger lifting very heavy weights/doing heavy manual labor 12 hours a day, then why not recruit smaller (lower weight, lower calorie intake) personnel. FYI - below is how to calculate caloric intake needs. Chances are that Mars explorers/settlers may need even fewer high-value calories per day because their muscles won't be fighting as much gravity. (NASA probably has data on how calorie needs are affected by changes in gravity.)

    https://www.k-state.edu/paccats/Contents/PA/control.htm

    'The Harris-Benedict formula is based on total body weight, height, age, and sex and is therefore more accurate than the “quick and easy” formula used above.

    Men: BMR = 66 + (13.7 x wt in kg) + (5 x ht in cm) - (6.8 x age in years) Women: BMR = 655 + (9.6 x wt in kg) + (1.8 x ht in cm) - (4.7 x age in years) *note: 1 inch = 2.54 cm and 1 kilogram = 2.2 lbs. Example: You are a 30 year old female. You are 5'6" tall (167.6 cm) and weigh 120 pounds (54.5 kg). Your BMR = 655 + 523 + 302 - 141 = 1339 calories/day.'

    Now that you know your BMR, you can calculate your TDEE by multiplying you BMR by your activity level.

    Activity Multiplier: Sedentary = BMR x 1.2 (little or no exercise, desk job) Lightly active = BMR x 1.375 (light exercise/ sports 1-3 days/week) Moderately active = BMR x 1.55 (moderate exercise/ sports 6-7 days/week) Very active = BMR x 1.725 (hard exercise every day, or exercising 2 xs/day) Extra active = BMR x 1.9 (hard exercise 2 or more times per day, or training for marathon, or triathlon, etc. Example: Your BMR is 1339 calories per day and your activity level is moderately active (work out 3-4 times per week). Your activity factor is 1.55 and your TDEE is 1.55 x 1339 = 2075 calories per day. This is the total calories you could eat everyday if you wanted to maintain your weight. If you want to lose weight, you would either have to consume fewer calories everyday, increase you activity level, or do both.'

    Last health related item - not sure returning to Earth for a medical emergency would be a good idea because within 10 years Earth could be in the middle of yet another pandemic. BTW - would our Mars explorers/settlers be screened for any viruses like herpes or CMV that never die off? I'm wondering how fast such viruses might mutate in a spaceship or Mars environment. And since mutations tend to be random/unpredictable, a returning Mars explorer/settler could be bringing back a very lethal strain of virus. Guess this also means the Mars crew would have to run a bio-chem lab and self-test on a regular basis. (Are such lab materials re-usable or do you have to pack/ship a few tons of very expensive, specialty chemicals/re-agents?)

    Graphene 3D-printer - no idea if such a device exists but could be handy as a general usage material/tool since graphene is ultra strong for the weight. If Mars has anything resembling graphite as a potential raw material maybe a graphene 3D-printer be used to print teeth/dental implants as well as replacements for demineralized, over-weakened or broken bones. However even if such devices were available, Mars would still need cross-trained medical personnel to use them effectively. (Unless someone develops a medical AI complete with an array of scalpel and retractor arms.)

    686:

    I read Worlds in Collision when I was a pre-teen, haven't thought about it seriously since. Anyway, I prefer to remember James P. Hogan's other works, like the Giants novels, The Proteus Operation. Holocaust denial may just be related to the events leaving living memory, I remember hearing a WW2 vet who'd seen one of the camps opine that he wouldn't mind physically convincing a Holocaust denier of the errors in their thinking.

    687:

    Mars ... then why not recruit smaller (lower weight, lower calorie intake) personnel.

    Like jet pilots in the earlier days. Space was at a premium and even today if you get a bunch of military fighter pilots together you'll notice they tend to be below average in height. And no tall ones.

    688:

    Re: 'I suspect a strong genetic component, as previously discussed.' (COVID-19)

    How about a strong epi-genetic component as in the Hunger Winter in the Netherlands in WW2? Starvation of a pregnant woman affects her unborn child's metabolism and susceptibility to certain medical conditions depending on which trimester she starved. Further, this effect is multi-generational.

    https://www.pnas.org/content/107/39/16757

    I'm guessing quite a lot of Type II diabetes can be linked to similar food scarcity issues esp. among 'visible minorities'. Add in issues with VitD metabolism. Plus a few other factors ... yes, genetics and everything else that happens to one's genes along the way.

    689:

    So did I. I put up that GI Bill link to support his sarcasm. All this based on everything else of the poster I've read.

    It's sort of weird though, isn't it, how many posters don't actually read ... and go off bshittery on stuff that if they actually bothered to read the posters here they would know better about. Which then leads one to think that people here only read themselves.

    690:

    Also NASA. I’ve seen SLS documentation with temperatures in Rankine.

    691:

    ROTFLMAO!

    The hairball announces he's going to replace his appointed chair of the SEC to replace the attorney in charge of the Southern District of NY (who have a ton of cases against Orange, his kids, Giuliani, etc). Late on a Friday evening (I almost typed fraidy, as in fradycat).

    The gent's response, on hearing it on the news (he was not notified) was, "No, I'm not stepping down. I was appointed by the judges, and I'm not going away till my replacement is approved by the Senate.

    692:

    Y'know, it strikes me that he's goes through henchmen as though they were minions (i.e. cannon fodder) like nobody's business, and given the rest of the government is fighting back as hard as it can, as are the states... he seems to be running out of henchmen to appoint....

    693:

    You know, if groundlings are nervous about Martian explorers getting pregnant as the result of recreational sex, there's a very simple solution: LGQ astronauts. While I understand that this might upset certain populations who have traditionally backed space exploration, I fail to see why it's more onerous than performing forced tubal ligations and vasectomies on astronauts before they can fly.

    694:

    Some people here pay close attention. Many people here have weird minds (and/or are not neurotypical). (Links are always appreciated.) Still not done with The American Slave Coast; reading in small doses because it is so depressing. Re the War of the Rebellion (bold mine): Official Records of the Union and Confederate Armies in the War of the Rebellion I grew up with a full set of these books. There was also a set of annual reports of the Bureau of American Ethonology, which were more interesting (to a young pacifist) and that I still have. They were early anthropology of their time but the organization (under John Wesley Powell) was genuinely inquistive and rigorous. (digitized here)

    Meanwhile I owe a promised full DnD-style entity description for, approximately: - An Entity that stirs up Chaos at various scales (including global) to increase variation [for [redacted]] and as a side effect, to make [forecasting] more difficult. (That sketch will probably do.)

    695:

    "A counter-example would be the French colonization of Quebec. Yes, there were natives, but for the purposes of colonization, that pretty well didn't matter. They were incredibly organized: they made sure to send eg blacksmiths, and they sent surveyors in first. In fact, many of the original land parcel boundaries can still be seen, along the south shore of the St Lawrence River."

    I suggest having a closer look at those histories. The first French settlements did not go well, and any survivors were likely only because of their interactions with the locals. Later on they obviously became more established.

    That being said, there wouldn't have been a colony at all if the locals hadn't been interested in selling furs - which became a profitable industry and the driving force in settlement for a couple of centuries.

    696:

    If I wanted an intel-based OS with no memory protection I'd run TempleOS. At least it looks interesting (even if the design values are vomitous

    Wow. Just...wow. I'd never encountered TempleOS before; I am in some ways impressed.

    Some of those features are things we really would have liked to have in the early 1990s. There's obviously going to be a steep learning curve when getting into that, but that's to be expected. In some ways it's a shame the state of the art has so completely moved on; it's like seeing someone come up with wonderful improvements on the teletype, the racing buggy, or the spinning wheel.

    697:

    David L @ 652 And this is an excuse or a justification? It is not actually a valid argument, under any circumstances. In fact, it's the identiacal argument, used by the slavers in the US South, pre 1861 - "We've always done it this way & the bible says so" No, just NO.

    However ... @ 684 ... People circle in on themselves with mutually-supporting mad "ideas" based on no evidence. The "World-wide Jewish Conspiracy" is, probably, the longest-running of these .... come to that, I would excpect Quanon to be running down that track, if they haven't already.

    RvdH REALLY? Actual Rankine? Absolute zero is -459.69°F ARRRGgggh! - - - - Mind you, I suppose it could be worse, though I've never seen an absolute scale in Degrees Reamur!

    whitroth Given that DT seems to treat everything as if it was a Mafia operation ... And he can't even do that competently ..... English equivalents? Possibly Ethelraed Unraed ( Evil-counsel ) or the Empress Matilda, maybe.

    698:

    a sun lamp might help keep the tooth decay bacteria at low enough levels to prevent cavities.

    A dental caries vaccine is possible, but hasn't been pursued for commercial reasons. I'd say it's a line-item on the Mars colony budget.

    GMO'd cacao seeds

    Dunno if you've ever seen the plant in real life, but it's a bit of a bush. Might be possible to get the necessary genes spliced into something more compact, though, or produce a dwarf variety.

    Cocoa gets you theobromine which is a handy precursor for a bunch of drugs -- anything needing a xanthine alkaloid -- including some anti-asthma meds.

    Graphene 3D-printer

    The 3D printer holy grail Eric Drexler was after in his early prospectus for nanotechnology was one that could work on carbon, i.e. print structural diamonds. It turns out to be non-trivial but not obviously impossible.

    I'm going to flag "Drexler mature diamondoid nanotechnology" as a magic wand tech that throws all the difficulty parameters for a Mars colony out of alignment (while introducing news dependencies). But unlike other "magic wands" (an FTL drive, time travel) it doesn't seem to be obviously ruled out by the laws of physics.

    699:

    Holocaust denial may just be related to the events leaving living memory,

    Jim didn't have that excuse: if he was still alive he'd be pushing 90.

    (However, he was Irish, as in a citizen of the Republic of Ireland, which remained neutral during the war and had a rather less unfriendly relationship with the Third Reich than the UK. "The enemy of my enemy would be my ally if my enemy wasn't on my doorstep and primed to invade at the drop of a hat if they thought I was providing harbours for U-boats", kind of thing.)

    700:

    [Trump] seems to be running out of henchmen to appoint....

    A year or two back I was wondering why this hadn't happened earlier, but in retrospect the first flush of Trump appointees leaned heavily toward political reactionaries, opportunists, and general eccentrics. The seriously crazy ones spun out quickly, leaving the professional grifters and scammers. He knows plenty of those, they being the only ones likely to hang around him very long, but he seems to have depleted the ready supply of opportunists willing to step into the spotlight. Even the most crooked must know by now that once they get fifteen minutes of fame from being near the president they'll be remembered on the internet forever - including whatever caper eventually gets them fired.

    Which, as we've seen, leaves him with the incompetent crooks and people nobody would expect to see near government such as the My Pillow guy.

    701:

    The British Antarctic Survey had, for decades, a policy of picking folks for the long duration missions who had a very low sex drive (they'd probably be classed as asexual today). It wasn't secret, it wasn't anything that required a committee: it was just made clear to candidates that if they didn't have a low sex drive they'd be climbing the walls presently, and offered advice (if it was needed) on what constituted "low enough".

    (Source: I used to work with one of their alumni once. To describe him as "reserved" or "introverted" would be a wild understatement.)

    702:

    And yet, it is said & I believe recorded ... That the first thing the overwintering team do, when they are left for the long night Is to congregate & read Tennyson's "Ulysses"

    703:

    if they didn't have a low sex drive they'd be climbing the walls

    Introverted and low sex drive are, AFAIK, orthogonal. I've definitely chatted with someone who was very social but identified as asexual, and I'm pretty sure some of the asocial people I've known were quite sexual. Just often not very good at the social part of sexual.

    Another approach: I know one poly relationship who first got together on a long-duration science expedition. Admittedly in a swamp rather than a sandy desert, but it seemed to work for them.

    It's possible you could go the other way and only select lesbian or gay folk. Or only bisexuals.

    But it might be easier to simply go for wankers. I'm not sure how the spaceship would smell by the time it got to Mars, but I suspect no worse than it would anyway.

    704:

    Introverted and low sex drive are, AFAIK, orthogonal.

    They are, however, both assets in a small team/isolated environment setting.

    (I think sexual orientation is less of an issue for an initial Mars exploration base than patriarchal values: possessive/domineering/manipulative behaviour and emphasis on fecundity are clearly immensely detrimental to the success of such a mission. I'll also note that a history of abusive relationships/gaslighting is a very bad sign -- domestic violence has seen a really bad uptick just during lockdown from COVID19, and if it happens in a setting where the parties concerned are unable to escape BECAUSE THEY'RE ON MARS in a habitat the size of a spaceship it's going to end in murder/suicide.)

    705:

    domestic violence has seen a really bad uptick just during lockdown from COVID19 Including a sinificant number of "extra" deaths & serious injuries, if I have understood the numbers correctly.

    Oh yes @ 701 ... Which would tend to suggest that the "plot line" ( Such as it is ) for "9 songs" is a bit thin. cough

    706:

    Back @ 618 ... I asked a question, regarding a proposed change in Scottish law ( as though Scotland is bring a blasphemy law in by the back door. Maybe ) - as I really don't have any info, though if the Nat Secular Society are worried, it looks like a cause for concern. Anyone from "oop North" got any better information or opinions, please?

    707:

    And this is an excuse or a justification?

    Greg. There are various aspects of the world that you despise. And some of those are things others of us agree with. Some not.

    But you also tend to attribute to those things you despise attributes that really exist broadly in society as if they were exclusive to the things you despise.

    708:

    I'm out of the loop, but AIUI they decided to ditch the blasphemy law (good) but realized it'd leave the door open to sectarian abuse (bad), so decided to patch the hole by introducing a hate speech law (debatably good) then drew it up so broadly and badly that it arguably creates a chilling climate for criticism of any religion (debatably bad).

    The COVID19 shut things down, and I'm not sure where they've got to as a result.

    709:

    Re: 'Dental caries vaccine'

    The below from your Wikipedia link is especially appealing: tooth regeneration would be the ideal. Then try to do the same for bones.

    'The University of Leeds has also begun researching a recently discovered peptide known as P11-4. When applied to a cavity and coming in contact with saliva, this peptide assembles itself in a fibrous matrix or scaffold, attracting calcium and thereby allowing the tooth to regenerate.'

    Re: 'Might be possible to get the necessary genes spliced into something more compact, though, or produce a dwarf variety'

    Agree - pretty well all food producing plants would need to be altered to be as efficient as possible. Heteromeles might be able to offer some ideas on this in terms of which parts of the food plants we're most familiar with are mostly for show, serve as pollinator attractors, over-tall because of machine harvesting requirements (i.e., almost all commercially grown grains, esp. wheat).

    Changing the shape of a plant to maximize yield is another approach that's already being used, i.e., vine tomatoes, which has the added benefit of making fruit harvesting much easier, i.e., lopping off one cluster of tomatoes (total weight 2- 3 lbs) vs. one individual fruit (1-1.5 lbs) per branch/stem. I'm still wondering about how much one can fiddle with the light/dark growth regulation cycle in plants to maximize food production.

    Speaking of light/dark cycles --- if you want healthy and sane Mars explorers/settlers that can work for more than a couple of years before dropping dead or going nuts, then you must not overwork them and absolutely avoid 'shift work'. There's increasing evidence that shift work completely screws up a number of bodily systems including stress regulation. This means no 60-hour work weeks and your crew should have interests (hobbies, socializing, writing SF/F novels, etc.) beyond their immediate jobs/tasks. If the base/settlement needs people to work during the night, then you might need up to four different groups 'day' vs. 'night' staffs mixed in with alternating '3 on/4 off' and '4 on/3 off' groups (fairly common for some nurses depending on which ward they work). What having 4 distinct work groups might do to team dynamics - no idea. Chances are that NASA and Russia probably have some good in-depth (albeit small n) longitudinal data by now on how to structure a work day/week - including minimum time off needs as well as extended 'holidays'.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/000368709500047X

    Off-topic ....

    Re: COVID-19 susceptibility (groups at increased risk)

    Add 'shift-work' to the list of likely things to weaken the immune system.

    710:

    He should've known better, but a decade or so earlier, there would've been little in the way of Holocaust denial in the air, the prospect of encountering a healthy, athletic eye witness would've kept them under their rocks. In any case, it's not possible to spend a lot of time as a "Devil's advocate" without picking up a whiff of brimstone yourself.

    711:

    I'm going to flag "Drexler mature diamondoid nanotechnology" as a magic wand tech that throws all the difficulty parameters for a Mars colony out of alignment (while introducing news dependencies).

    Drexler's 1986 manifesto, "Engines of Creation", was based, at least implicitly, on a marriage between Democritus/Epicurus/Lucretius and Feynman: there's naught but atoms and the void and we can manipulate atoms down to the scale of individual atoms. He then adduced some existing aggregates of atoms (e.g., us) as, ah, existence proofs of what can be assembled out of atoms. If we ever get to that point, a lot of things are going to be different.

    712:

    Interesting point about shift work, I've been working the "Anne Rice" shift for over twenty years, sounds like some self-deprecating humor might be wrung from that.

    713:

    Concerning computers on Mars, what OS they run is likely not nearly as important as having unfashionably large feature sizes in the chips, or really impressive cosmic ray shielding.

    714:

    The hairball announces he's going to replace his appointed chair of the SEC to replace the attorney in charge of the Southern District of NY (who have a ton of cases against Orange, his kids, Giuliani, etc). Late on a Friday evening (I almost typed fraidy, as in fradycat).

    It's going to be interesting to watch the months leading up to November.

    Unless the resumption of his rallies allows a miracle for Trump, or something else comes along to change the polling, at some point at least some GOP senators are going to lose their fear of angering him (and perhaps view angering Trump as a positive, particularly if they are in danger in November).

    This could make obvious blatant moves like this problematic for Trump, which could be one of the reasons for suddenly doing it now.

    715:

    David L It is still not a valid argument, under any circumstances .... Just because it's always been done that way, doen't necessarily mean that there are not better ways, or that we haven't learnt something new. It does mean that any new way will need careful examination, though.

    SFR Actually, most "modern" wheats, & other grains, have been selectively bred to be SHORTER, so they don't blow over so easily. Ditto peas, even those grown by amateurs, rather than commercially.

    716:

    I checked the calendar the other day. There are still a lot of state primaries yet to go this summer. And the fanatical base thrives on tossing out anti-Trump pols in primaries.

    717:

    David L / mdive It appears that W Barr is stirring up a lot of shit against himself with his openly corrupt intervention on DT's behalf - the NY prosecutor who is refusing to go looks as though he's on to something really sensitive & explosive. I presume that the louder the "base" scream for DT, the more the rest of the country edges away? Yes? Bolton is a dangerous old-fashioned rightwing War Hawk ... yet even he thinks DT is not safe to be allowed out. That's really scary.

    718:

    David L @ 676:

    Velikovskyanism ... young-earth creationism .... contrarianism, which culminated in his conversion to holocaust denial.

    Wow. As someone who spent 10 years give or take whacking at the YEC crowd (people I personally knew) I never saw THAT path taken.

    Now my mom was likely a devote of Velikovskyanism after doing a quick rad about him but I don't remember seeing any of his work when going through her debris/estate. But it might have been then and tossed by another of the dozen or so of us cleaning things up.

    I never saw any basis for "young-earth creationism" in Velindovsky's writings. As far as I could tell his theory was that Biblical writings (along with other ancient texts) were oral traditions where pre-literate people tried to explain events they didn't understand. One thing I got was his description of writings around the world that describe a great flood.

    And, as it turns out, there was a world-wide great flood ... at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum that flooded not only what is now the Persian Gulf, but also Doggerland and Beringia ... although I'm not sure those all happened at the same time, I'm sure there was at least some overlap.

    No celestial big daddy needed to explain them, but I'm sure they had a profound impact on the people living in the area at the time and would have been events remembered in oral traditions.

    What I don't believe is his theory that this was all caused by Jupiter spitting out some celestial body that eventually settled down in orbit to become the planet Venus, and that the sun standing still in the sky was caused by a close encounter between that body & Earth.

    I don't think it's completely out of the realm of possibility, and I don't think it has ever actually been disproven ... mainly because no one credits it enough to bother looking for the evidence that would disprove it.

    So, it has never been proven nor disproven and I have no idea what evidence you would need to do either one.

    But Velidovsky was a pretty good writer. His books (I also read "Earth in Upheaval") were good enough to keep me turning pages until I got to their ends.

    719:

    DonL @ 677:

    They were able get an aircraft in there a few days later to medivac the "patient"

    Possibly this flight? Love undercomplicated planes like the Twin Otter.

    I'm thinking earlier than that, and an aircraft from the NY Air National Guard.

    https://www.military.com/daily-news/2018/10/24/ny-air-national-guard-unit-begins-annual-south-pole-mission.html

    I think we're learning here that over the years there have been multiple medivac flights down to the South Pole station. FWIW, I have the vaguest recollection that the incident I'm remembering was a female doctor who had to be medivaced.

    720:

    Yes. The only place I can recall seeing anyone actually use Rankine was also something from NASA about the space shuttle.

    721:

    Re: 'Actually, most "modern" wheats, & other grains, have been selectively bred to be SHORTER, so they don't blow over so easily.'

    Not so sure about that. I said taller because of a doc produced sometime ago that mentioned how the NA wheat and other crop producers were using the supersized harvesters (40 ft cut per pass) which meant larger and taller harvesting machines* overall. This in turn meant taller crops. I've no idea how tall the old/original wheats were but the average height currently grown in NA depending on variety is about 1.1 meter (+/- 20 cm). Since most NA wheat production is done by large corps rather than small independent farmers this suggests an increased likelihood of taller, i.e., higher yield/lower wastage plants.

    • I was trying to find the chopping/threshing height of a typical harvester but either I'm not seeing/recognizing it or it's not considered a meaningful enough spec for a marketing brochure. Anyways, thought you might understand (and enjoy) this more than I do. (And if you do find the threshing/chopping height, please post it - thanks!)

    http://www.gleanercombines.com/content/dam/public/gleaner/en-us/pdf/literature-brochures/GL20B001AG-my2019-s9-series-brochure-fnl-lr.pdf/_jcr_content/renditions/original

    722:

    Asimov took it apart pretty comprehensively. He points out that the orbital mechanics it implies are a huge pile of utter arse, so the whole idea is impossible from the word go, and that Velikovsky's method of correlating evidence from historical sources is based around shifting the dates they were written by a thousand or two years either way to make them all happen at the same time and claiming that everyone who supports the usual dates given for those sources is wrong. He also excoriates Velikovsky for trying to slip the distinction between hydrocarbons and carbohydrates past the reader's notice, and as far as the Joshua thing goes Velikovsky didn't know his Wells.

    723:

    And, as it turns out, there was a world-wide great flood ... at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum that flooded not only what is now the Persian Gulf, but also Doggerland and Beringia ... although I'm not sure those all happened at the same time, I'm sure there was at least some overlap.

    Ummmm. How to explain that you've collapsed stuff that happened over about 10,000 years into an "event?" The melting of the glaciers raised the level of the oceans about 120 m around starting around 17000 years ago and ending around 7600 years ago. Sea levels still rise and fall, which is why most of the atolls in Micronesia have only been above water for a bit less than 2000 years.

    Thing to realize is that early civilizations were built along rivers (Tigris, Euphrates, Nile, Yellow, Indus, etc.). Rivers flood. This is a feature, not a bug, as the sediment left by the flood makes really good farmland. Still, floods are one of those unavoidable metaphor thingies, so unsurprisingly, they show up in mythology.

    While I don't entirely disbelieve that oral traditions can last for millennia, I don't think this is one of them.

    The best example of a putative long term oral story surviving is from Australia, where a myth appears to describe land features that are now underwater. Whether they went underwater 10,000 or 1,500 years ago is something the scientists argue over, and no one has checked to see if the water's so clear that the features can be seen from a boat. But that's the best evidence we have at the moment.

    724:

    I just looked.

    Um... a "revelation from God" (tm)? mark edges away, doing the 3 meter unobvious edging dash.

    Just... no. I would have zero confidence that he hadn't added in code to make sure it took everything connected to it down at some Predestined Time.

    Trust me, I'm not happy with Larry Wall's religiousity, but perl's been vetted by enough other folks.

    Oh, and I'm still annoyed at Larry for coming onto comp.lang.awk, and pushing perl in the early nineties.

    725:

    Well, it just indicates that you're weird and strange.

    But since you're a) hanging out here, and b) a fan, that was a given.

    I really need to get Nancy (the button lady) to make me the button I saw a convention center staffer wearing in '96 at Worldcon: "Weird and proud".

    726:

    I know that before the Shuttle stopped flying, they were still carrying chunky, ruggedized 486 laptops... much better resistance to radiation effects.

    727:

    That's started. I saw an article in the last week or so, that most of those running for federal reelection don't mention him at all in their ads.

    Looking forward to the spike in Oklahoma, in two weeks (the rally's today, 19k tickets, 19k seats, though I read that folks on tiktok are ordering tickets they have no intention of using).

    728:

    Beat me to it. Most crop plants are being bred to maximize food yield and minimize the other stuff.

    To answer the previous question, day length neutrality is one those things that, when it shows up, becomes yet another trait to be bred for when needed.

    With a spacecraft, this shows up in spades: the space farm is likely to be a series of refrigerator-sized )racks that are lit 24 hours/day, and the hot water flowing out of them (got to cool for all the grow lights, even if they are pink LEDs) is part of the spacecraft hot water supply.

    Inside those cabinets are likely to be interesting things like the UC Riverside space tomato, perigee dwarf wheat, miniature peas, peppers, and so forth. But the point is the plants are all likely to be dwarfs that maximize food production, minimize the rest of the plant, and can grow in whatever the growth medium is (I suspect styrofoam blocks, but someone may go for aeroponics).

    But that's not where the challenges ends. For one thing, they are serious disease control issues, which they're probably going to deal with by seriously quarantining production of plants for the mission (e.g. they'll be effing expensive due to quarantine production costs). They're likely to be self fertile, unless you really want pollen in zero-gee and an astronaut mucking around with a paintbrush and making like a bee. Worst of all for the plants, they may not be in freefall forever. Instead, they're likely to be jerked around by the engines firing. That's the reason why you don't want a big, lanky plant floating in zero-gee, because maneuvers will break it.

    What to grow? Well, that gets into a whole other messy question about diets, what tastes good in space, what people need for morale, and so forth. Growing pro-drug plants may be problematic (although would miniature marijuana be useful, or not?), since with drug precursors, you've got to lug along the chemistry lab to make use of them. Plus you've got to keep the chemist alive or the lab's kind of worthless. Is a chemist's weight in meds a better idea for health care than a chemist? I don't know, but it's a question to be answered.

    Anyway, there's no point in lugging along a cacao TREE, or a coffee TREE, or any of those. It's just not weight effective. If you must, grow chickpeas, grind and char them, and put them in hot water with a dose of caffeine. It's not coffee, but it's better than nothing.

    The other thing that might be useful is a rack full of crickets or other insects, well-isolated so that they can't come out of their grow chamber except when they're immobilized or dead (insects lose behind the panels chewing on wires is a Bad Thing). The twofold reason for this is that 1) hauling a pound of crickets out of a ten-pound colony doesn't really hurt the colony, but it does give you some protein (the bug colony is more fungible than a larger vertebrate), and b) herbivorous insects more quickly turn plant waste into poop than composting or worms do, and the bug poop can be fed into the human waste recycling system and turned into plant fertilizer fairly rapidly.

    The downside is, of course, ewwwww we have to eat bugs!

    But the problem with a long space mission without resupply is that you've got to be able to rapidly and efficiently recycle nutrients. Composting is slow (plus you need a lot of organisms that might cause problems elsewhere in the spacecraft), so it's better to have something that munches garbage rapidly and turns it into poop. The poop (along with the human wastes) are then processed into plant nutrients. Figuring out how to make this palatable for astronauts a long way from home is another mission design issue.

    729:

    My Facebook image is me under the Washington DC building plaque of these folks: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Order_of_Odd_Fellows

    Noticed it last fall while walking about doing the tourist thing.

    730:

    Not so sure about that. I said taller because of a doc produced sometime ago that mentioned how the NA wheat and other crop producers were using the supersized harvesters (40 ft cut per pass) which meant larger and taller harvesting machines* overall.

    Actually it was growing so tall that it tended to fall over near harvest time. Especially if there was a rain. So they did engineer it to be shorter. Not stubby but shorter than it was.

    731:

    Yes, bits of it are quite neat. Seems to aim at giving a PC the same kind of turnitonandfuckaboutability that an old 8-bit home computer provided, plus taking some of the neat features of the Borland Turbo IDE and making everything work like that. Trouble is it also imposes on the PC all the limitations of an old 8-bit home computer, and a low-end one at that (lack of networking really stands out).

    One thing I definitely agree with is that modern systems, despite all their graphicalness, make it far too much of a ridiculous pain in the arse to actually do graphics. It would be really bloody handy if you could still just bash up a quick and dirty five-line program that displayed its output as a graph instead of a table of figures, without having to spend fifty lines jumping through hoops. I did write a library so you could do graphics in C as simply and easily as you could on a BBC Micro, but it still isn't the same; things to include, things to link, having to put "int main(void) { .... }" around the code, and all that, still adds up to more boilerplate than actual program, and the way the article says that thing lets you do it would be very useful for dealing with the presently rather too large class of problems that are too complicated to visualise the answer easily in my head but not complicated enough to write a program for without spending most of the time fucking about instead of getting on with it.

    However, dual booting into some approximation of an OS that doesn't do networking, deliberately avoids using memory protection so you can nuke the machine completely with one stray pointer, and is basically useless for all the other things I need to do at the same time to solve the other parts of the problem that the five-liner addresses one part of, tends rather to send the fuckaround factor through the roof than reduce it at all.

    732:

    I think we're learning here that over the years there have been multiple medivac flights down to the South Pole station.

    A big problem is the flight time is so long many of them have to turn around as the weather goes bad at the landing site while they are en route.

    And they can't stay long. The plane literally starts to freeze as soon as it stops on the ice.

    733:

    The memory is vague, but I recall seeing a document a friend of mine had, from a California nuclear power plant, that used rankine. I was rather astonished.

    734:

    Step 1 is complete. I have received my new 4TB drives. The first one is installed & formatted and the files from the full 2TB drive are copying over to the new drive as I write this.

    After that's done, I'll pull the 2TB drive & pack it up; then install the other two 4TB drives, so I'll have plenty of room to store my photos & I can get back to making new photos.

    735:

    "That's the reason why you don't want a big, lanky plant floating in zero-gee, because maneuvers will break it."

    OK then, how about aquatic plants? The discussion so far has consistently assumed that one thing you definitely will have is a great big tank of water, and if you've got plants at all then your water recycling system will have some separation between the functions of producing plant water and producing drinking water, since drinking water wants to be basically pure H2O but for plants a lot of the crap the starting mucky water has in it is actually useful. So you can make the lesser degree of purification for plant water the main function, keep your main reserve as plant water, and just have a small high-purity reserve with the high quality purification topping it up as needed. And there you have it, complete anti-g-force support for complex plants all by magic without any extra weight to carry.

    Of course one might go further and say why bother having complex plants in space at all, when you could just grow algae soup instead. After all, in space we're only looking at the problem of how to supply food for several months, so a bit of yuck is more tolerable. Once you get there you've got stable gravity and you can get the seeds out for the long term.

    736:

    Case nightmare green?

    Here's a partial list of issues (my doctoral advisor was an aquatic plant nut, among other issues): 1. There aren't a lot of aquatic plants that provide good food value. Rice and taro can be grown dry, before you go there.
    2. Working with large quantities of water in microgravity? What could possibly go wrong? Hopefully this isn't a shocking problem for you. But you know, it might be.
    3. A less obvious problem: CO2 (and I assume O2) diffuse more slowly through water, so local depletion zones develop around underwater plant parts. The shape of aquatic plant leaves are adapted to getting the gases they need. In underwater gardens in aquaria, there's often a CO2 tank hidden in the stand that's there to keep the plants fertilized, and it's feeding into the aerator. 4. And you want to add algae? Algae are the aquarist's nightmare. You've got to scour the tanks every few days to keep the algae from overgrowing the plants by overgrowing every surface. 5. Oh, you meant only eat algae? That's fine. Instead of dealing with the horrors of algae overgrowing your crops, you've only got to deal with the horrors of making sure bacteria (like E. coli) don't overwhelm your algae tanks. And, also, that the algae don't go where you don't want them too, since they'll grow in thin films of water on surfaces as well as in your bioreactor.

    I think I'd rather try perigee wheat in an aeroponics setup, myself. Or microgrowing dwarf hemp, if that was allowed. You can actually set up a space garden yourself by getting a cabinet full of grow lamps and growing dwarf cultivars inside it. Might be a fun hobby.

    737:

    That is correct. I lived in a farming area, and remember several partial crop failures due to a combination of wind and rain flattening the grain and making it unharvestable.

    738:

    Heteromeles @ 723:

    And, as it turns out, there was a world-wide great flood ... at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum that flooded not only what is now the Persian Gulf, but also Doggerland and Beringia ... although I'm not sure those all happened at the same time, I'm sure there was at least some overlap.

    Ummmm. How to explain that you've collapsed stuff that happened over about 10,000 years into an "event?" The melting of the glaciers raised the level of the oceans about 120 m around starting around 17000 years ago and ending around 7600 years ago. Sea levels still rise and fall, which is why most of the atolls in Micronesia have only been above water for a bit less than 2000 years.

    I think you missed the most salient point:

    although I'm not sure those all happened at the same time, I'm sure there was at least some overlap.

    Just because an event takes thousands of years to unfold doesn't mean the event didn't happen. Oral traditions are much stronger among pre-literate people. While they do warp over time, I think it's a reasonable supposition that they represent some kind of memory of real events however distorted they may have become before the time they are written down.

    I'm just amused by the possibility there was a real, natural "Garden of Eden" somewhere to the east of where the people who wrote down the Biblical texts said their ancestors came from. There is, I think, good evidence that people lived in the area that is now the Persian Gulf and they were at some point driven out, not by an angel with a fiery sword, but by rising sea levels.

    And I don't find it odd that Velikovsky might have been trying to explain things he didn't understand. That's inherent in his thesis that ancient traditions represent people trying to explain phenomena they did not understand.

    That is an explanation that does not require any level of belief in "young-earth creationism". Those ancient people witnessed some "event", however long it took, over however many generations passed while the "event" unfolded and their oral traditions about that "event" reflect their limited understanding.

    PS: On a geologic time scale they did all happen at the same time.

    739:

    Re: '... there's no point in lugging along a cacao TREE, or a coffee TREE, or any of those. It's just not weight effective. If you must, grow chickpeas, grind and char them,'

    Guess someone better get started on mini versions of both ... plus vanilla, plus cinnamon, plus peppercorn, etc. Re: chickpeas - very versatile and tasty - but not a chocolate or coffee substitute. :)

    Edible insects - I've seen a few cooking shows/docs now where the Western foodie tried some local/ethnic insect-based food and really enjoyed it so I think this is a culturally reprogrammable preference. Just like sushi: Eww! - raw fish! Now just about everybody eats sushi to the point that it's a regular 'take-out meal' option at most grocery chains. Key is flavor and, to a lesser degree, texture.

    A key feature about developing food plants that could grow on a space-ship or Mars colony is that along the way you'd probably also develop food plants that could grow under increasingly erratic environmental conditions on Earth. So it wouldn't be money 'wasted' on irrelevant research.

    • Vanilla (orchid) and peppercorn are vines but could be made smaller, faster-growing, and hardier.

    'There are 100 species of vanilla orchid, a vine which can get up to 300 feet (91+ m.) in length.'

    https://www.gardeningknowhow.com/ornamental/flowers/orchids/grow-vanilla-orchid.htm

    740:

    Interesting article in Vanity Fair that suggests Trump's "base" are not a political movement, but are instead a religious cult:

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/06/inside-the-cult-of-trump-his-rallies-are-church-and-he-is-the-gospel

    741:

    I disagree. Getting an effectively insoluble failure in a critical area will destroy the mission, and one in even an important area can have drastic consequences on effectiveness. Many modern systems are prone to such failures, because they are just too complicated and badly engineered, and the usual solution (*) on Earth will not work on Mars.

    (*) Yes, that really IS to abandon that activity, transfer the work to somewhere else, and/or wait for a new version or even rewrite. I have been there far too often.

    742: 665 or so

    “classic Engineer Syndrome” Could we not do that please?

    Engineering is a very broad thing, with a vast number of people that have some claim to be an engineer of some form. Quite a lot of us can even tie our shoelaces without assistance. In 40 years as a practicing engineer (mechanical, designer, and software etc) I have met one (1) actual ‘cDesign Proponentist’ that had any sort of claim to ‘being an engineer ‘. He was a religious nutter at best, which I rather think preceded engineering.

    My position is that anyone claiming to be an engineer that also holds with the ‘cDesign Proponentist’ idiots is A) lacking any knowledge whatsoever of biological systems B) a really poor engineer

    Anyone that knows the merest snippet of biology and has any sort of knowledge of mechanical systems will laugh themselves silly at the idea that biology was designed with any intelligent basis. Any electrical engineer will collapse sniggering at the idea that the wiring was designed divinely. A chemical engineering will splutter furiously at the very idea of the chemical reactions of life being deliberately made that way. Software engineers have been making rude jokes about brain programming for decades.

    So please, it’s not ‘engineer syndrome’ any more than ‘physicists delusion’ or ‘classicists craziness’. It’s just plain stupidity being excused by the person’s background.

    743:

    Re: Wheat - 'SHORTER, so they don't blow over so easily.'

    Looks like you were right about this. :)

    Wonder what the optimal wheat height is for making crop circles.

    744:

    Please do the math.

    100 meters/100,000 years=0.01 meter/year, or 1 centimeter a year. Yes, over their lifetimes, coastal dwellers during this era see the sea reclaiming the land. But that happens normally, in historical times, and you don't see stories of monstrous floods being inspired by such erosion.

    Note that I don't disagree with you about people living in areas that are now below the range of ordinary SCUBA (100 meters down). However, that's not Noah's flood. A better example of a Noachian flood is something like the great flood of 1862 in California. Which, oddly enough, has largely been forgotten, rather than being legendary.

    745:

    Oh do I wish you were right.

    At half the colleges I worked or studied at (names obscured so as not to piss off the innocent), there were tenured professor cell biologists who believed in creationism. In one case, the prof led bible studies in classrooms after hours. In another case, the prof testified in front of the state legislature about the importance of teaching creationism in schools, while many of his colleagues lined up to testify against him.

    Speaking as someone who pounded up through the ranks in biology, it's not at all obvious from what you learn in even grad school that creationism is wrong. That particular lesson is generally not one you teach students, because then you have some students taking offense and walking out, and then you have that chat with the dean about the upset students and their parents, and then you get the bad reviews at the end of the semester to boot. Only the most militant atheists like to do it.

    This is not to say I'm a creationist. I'm not, and I happily read the Panda's Thumb and similar arguments. The point is it's possible to be a creationist, get tenured in biology, and even be generally liked by your colleagues while doing so.

    It's also possible to be a practicing Christian and teach evolution (I know of two cases, one of whom I really admire both as a scientist and a human being), so I suspect the correlation is much more complex than one might expect.

    746:

    Please verify the 2TB drive's contents BEFORE you pack it up. Please?

    I've read of someone who was asked to help a friend sort out his backup drive -- the friend had pulled it from a NAS RAID array thinking the files could be read trivially on another system if required. Explaining to the drive's owner the intricacies of data striped across multiple disks in a proprietary format was, apparently, a lost cause, as were the files the friend wanted to recover.

    747:

    It's also possible to be a practicing Christian and teach evolution (I know of two cases, one of whom I really admire both as a scientist and a human being)

    Then there is Francis Collins who manages to piss off the religious (mostly fundamentalists but not always) and the atheists. He basically says when you show me science with data to back it up my religion must fit in those results. No matter what my friends think.

    I understand he became friends with Christopher Hitchens during the end of the Hitchens' life.

    748: 720-ish:

    “The only place I can recall seeing anyone actually use Rankine was also something from NASA“ + the mention of a California power plant - Rankine is also a thermodynamic cycle, mostly applicable to steam turbines and related devices. Which makes it relevant to a power plant and possibly the shuttle turbo pumps. Rankine cycle is not the same as Rankine temperature scale: though of course the two might be used together in less advanced nations

    749:

    Thing is, you can synthesize caffeine from uracil, and the penultimate step is theophylline, so if you wanted to synthesize it, you could. On the other hand, there's around 100 mg of caffeine in a cup of coffee, so if you wanted to take a five year supply, that's maybe a pound of pure caffeine per person for the entire voyage. Granted, that much caffeine in one place is enough to kill the entire crew many times over if let loose all at once. But the point is that, if you want to give the crew their daily caffeine, the simplest way is to provide it in tablets or something safer and use other things (like burned toast from dwarf wheat or roasted chickpeas) to provide flavor.

    Another challenge is getting sugar out of something. Beets in space perhaps? Sugar beets can be over 10% sugar by weight, and the process isn't too nasty (although dealing with boiling sugar solutions in microgravity is something that's probably easier said than done). Then you can feed the pulp and greens to the crickets, who will happily eat them.

    750:

    Cacao is a tree, part of the small (13 - 26 feet) evergreen family. Coffee is a much smaller tree (9.9' - 11/5'). The two are usually grown together because Cuba practices shade-grown coffee farming..

    I've been to cacao ranchitos in Cuba, where the chocolate is hand made by some beautiful women -- it's their operation, they only hire men during the busiest seasons. I still have a lot of the chocolate I got on my last trip to Cuba, which turns up in that bottom crisper drawer of the Fridge periodically. It is the best, the richest chocolate I've ever eaten -- and the sugar, of course was grown on the ranchito too, along with the bananas and coffee and the pineapples and the chickens and eggs, and much else.

    I keep saving it for ... a gift for a chocolate loving friend, for, I dunno. I like chocolate like any sane person, but it's not a go-to treat, very far from the top of that list. But I'm not that much of a sweets and dessert person. And never eat candy at all, not since a child.

    751:

    The Christian I'm thinking of teaches evolution and was an elder in his church. He's also the son of missionaries. The part I admire is that in addition, he's a foster parent, often to problem children (like preemies whose parents were addicted, who need special care) of multiple races, and he ended up adopting a couple of them, in addition to the whole flock of kids he had naturally.

    Oh, and he cranks out grad students and post docs who generally love him, and looks after the grad students of other professors who aren't nearly as caring. He gave me a job too.

    He and I never talked about his religious beliefs, but I still hold him up as one of my standards for how to practice Christianity.

    752:

    The story of Temple OS was not a happy one. The creator Terry A Davis suffered from schizophrenia and ended up homeless in the months prior to his death.

    Attracting the attention of the wrong parts of the internet did not help matters. Sociopathic teenagers pushing mentally ill peoples buttons for fun is apparently a popular spectator sport in some parts.

    Someone made a surprisingly good independent documentary about the whole affair. It is quite depressing.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UCgoxQCf5Jg

    753:

    He and I never talked about his religious beliefs, but I still hold him up as one of my standards for how to practice Christianity.

    I lost a lot of "friends" because they were not of that type.

    754:

    They are, indeed, very rare. They do exist though.

    755:

    About Velikovsky: trying to explain things he didn't know with the crap he wrote might have been fine, around the time he was born (1895). By 1950, it was whacko crapola.

    On the other hand, I'll give you a candidate for the Great Flood, and Eden, while we're at it: somewhere between 15k years ago and 10k? 7.5k? glaciation had gone down and the sea level risen enough to break through from the Atlantic to the Mediterranean basin. A lot time ago, I read it might have filled up at about 10mi/yr, but.....

    756:

    So, the Prosperity Doctrine writ large?

    757:

    No, I dont believe what im about to discuss for a moment,but to play devils advocate (pun intended) perhaps your tiny mortal mind is having trouble wrapping its head around exactly what and how the world was intelligently designed. Imagine instead of trying to intelligently design a platypus or a giraffe, your trying to intelligently design an entire universe. Such a universe must have the property that it starts out with a relatively small set of rules and a point like size. You then hit the execute button and the number of particles starts increasing as they are spawned from the initial singularity. Necessary emergent properties from a sufficiently large number of particles interacting must spontaneously occur in the system such that desired phenomenon like the creation of stars, planets, giraffes, Earl Grey tea, Amazon delivery vans and Roku streaming video sticks occur. The point of the exercise is not to snap your fingers and create a giraffe and a platypus and a Tesla model 3. Thats easy. The game is about, how many of these things can you create, more PR less as desired by ONLY adjusting the initial conditions. To take it up a notch, what kind of changes can you make, once again by only changing the initial conditions and letting it play out.

    For bonus points, if you were able to create sentient apes, or even just Republicans , can you get the to worship you. (Again, you cant touch the system after you hit execute. That means no speaking through incindiary shrubs and just telling them what you want. Although if events happen such that a schizophrenic cleric witnesses a wildfire and just happens to have an auditory halucination giving him detailed instructions on how to worship some sort of deity that by some stretch of the imagination sort of resembles you, you pretty much nailed it!)

    758:

    Oh, Ghu (purple be His Name). Worse than instant coffee: take 2 NoDoz and dissolve in hot water.

    No. Just say NO!!!

    759:

    Wonder what the optimal wheat height is for making crop circles. About 30cm ( 1 foot ) longer than your personal tramping-board's width, of course! 😁

    Heteromeles Then he can't actually be a "Proper Christian"TM - because they are arrogant self-centred egotistical bastards, like ... oh - Saint Dominic. /snk

    Regarding the US election & aftermath Assuming the d's win all 3 ( Nowhere near certain ) will they, this time, actually go after, at least the biggest, most obvious criminals: Trump / Barr / Mitch / Gorsuch? Or will they be allowed to get away with it?

    760:

    Trump / Barr / Mitch / Gorsuch?

    The federal level system going after Trump would set a very bad precedent. But New York and maybe even Florida, then others as details leak out, that could happen.

    Mitch and Gorsuch haven't broken any laws that I can see. They just twist the rules in way you (and many others) can't stand. Gorsuch has just proven he is doing exactly what he said he would do. Interpreting laws based on the text of the law. Which has all kinds of the right wing in the US in a huge snit just now. In their minds he was supposed to do what they wanted, not follow some stupid rules about properly interpreting laws and such.

    Now Barr is the interesting one. I think he's going to have a big trail of lies about why things were done which of which some will turn out to be breaking the law. As one columnist put it with the recent DACA case and the Census case a year ago, "pants on fire" was the ruling from the Supremes.

    761:

    Sorry, that won't work either.

    I don't disagree that the Mediterranean more-or-less completely dried up: Google "Messinian Salinity Crisis." It lasted from about 5,960,000 to 5,330,000 million years ago and ended with the Zanclean Flood (also googleable). The last may have happened rapidly, or may have taken 10,000 years-ish.

    The problem is that modern humans are more in the neighborhood of 300,000 years old, so I don't think anyone is buying that the Mediterranean reflooding is the origin of Noah.

    It is, however, the setting for Julian May's Saga of Pliocene Exile, and rather underused as an exotic exoplanet setting. Poul Anderson also used it as a setting for one of his time patrol stories, IIRC.

    You may be thinking instead of the Black Sea deluge hypothesis, that the Black Sea was another dry lake, with the Mediterranean held back by a natural dam at the Bosporus, until rising post-glacial seas overtopped the dam and refilled the Black Sea basin in 7,150 BP. That was proposed in 1997 (the book is fun to read, incidentally. I read it when it came out). The theory has (no surprise) received substantial push back since then, and it's an area of active study. But even the most recent study apparently has a flood lasting between 10 and 200 years, not 40 days and nights. Even if you read the book, it's another story of gradual inundation, with people being forced to flee a slow but inexorably rising flood, rather than drowning in a torrent.

    I'll point out, again, that California received up to 3 meters of rain in one month in 1862 and that the Sacramento Valley flooded 10 feet deep. There's good evidence for such floods around 2900 BCE and other times in Iraq, which has a topography comparable to the Sacramento Valley. Why look further afield for an origin of an ark story? The land where the term "ark" was coined occasionally had really bad floods.

    762:

    Apropos of nothing new under the sun: the Newgrange neolithic tomb in Ireland holds evidence of either a really screwed up family, possibly really screwed up aristocratic family. DNA from the bones of a burial in Newgrange showed the man's parents must have either been siblings or parent and child. And his was the one body that didn't get cremated. Incest within the ruling family is one of the hallmarks of the rulers of early civilizations, just to keep the power in the family. Stay classy, 4000 BCE. You're where civilization starts.

    763:

    Regarding the US election & aftermath Assuming the d's win all 3 ( Nowhere near certain ) will they, this time, actually go after, at least the biggest, most obvious criminals: Trump / Barr / Mitch / Gorsuch?

    So this is where one needs to remember that the US system isn't the same as the UK.

    Even if the DNC takes the Senate that doesn't mean they can do what they want - Senators (and even members of the House) aren't bound to vote by party line the way those of us in the Westminster system are used to.

    Thus I suspect it is a certainty that even a DNC Senate wouldn't do anything against the predecessors because they won't have the numbers.

    (this is the same reason why any substantial changes - like single payer - would require a DNC senate count of at least 70 as you need to account for those DNC senators from states less DNC friendly who would vote against anything radical - or even more unlikely enough GOP members to support it.)

    Also in the consideration will be whether it is worth burning the political capital vs achieving other policies that might in the grand scheme of things achieve a better outcome for voters - because the midterm elections mean there is the probability (based on history) that the DNC will only have all 3 for 2 years.

    764:

    Mitch and Gorsuch haven't broken any laws that I can see.

    I'd swap out Gorsuch for Brett Kavanaugh, who apparently lied under oath during his confirmation trial.

    As for Moscow Mitch, I think the notion is that, as with El Cheeto, there will be a demonstrable connection between him and Moscow, and he'll be tried for treason or acting as an agent for a foreign power. Lot of wishful thinking, but could be a grain of truth.*

    Speaking of foreign actors, I do find myself wondering how much of the US hysteria over masking is being ginned up by psyops operations out of Russia and China. It's so silly on the face of it, and yet so similar to stuff they did in 2016. It's also in line with Linebarger's Psychological Warfare, the notion that people who believe (or know) that the official media are lying to them are paradoxically easier to fool with propaganda than those who think the media are honest. Apparently (per Linebarger's observations of propaganda during WWII) they're more willing to believe things that play to their preconceptions than to listen when someone in authority tells them something unpleasant.

    Obviously, I have no proof of foreign action right now, I'm just speculating wildly without evidence. Still, if the US death toll hits 200,000 as a result of covid-19 deaths stoked by foreign actors, that really does demonstrate that cyberwar and psyops can contribute to atomic bomb-level casualty rates, albeit more slowly. Perhaps that may be worth thinking about....?

    *Per Mother Jones (not an unbiased source), El Cheeto's got most of half a billion dollars in loans coming due in the next four years, much of it from Deutsche Bank. Some of that is personally secured, so he's personally on the hook if it defaults. If he doesn't win re-election, he may be ruined for business (Deutsche Bank doesn't want him as a client at the moment), as well as in legal jeopardy. Maybe someone should buy up a bunker in Berlin for him to move into, should he lose in November? Make sure he pays cash on the deal if you do.

    765:

    By the way, Charlie (and other authors), you missed a big one:

    Today is the summer solstice.

    It's also the new moon, and (depending on where you are in the world) the time of an annular solar eclipse.

    It's also the day of El Cheeto's rally in Tulsa.

    Coincidence?

    Well, actually, yes it is . They wanted to rally yesterday, and it's not at the same time as the eclipse or the solstice moment.

    But if some monstrous death arises out of this, it was due to a massive ritual summoning. Now obviously you're thinking of the Coming of the Great Beast. But it could just be the massive summoning of Covid-19 into new hosts.

    Still, y'all had a chance to work that into some grisly fantasy, either for a book or an RPG. Did anyone make it?

    766:

    I checked the calendar the other day. There are still a lot of state primaries yet to go this summer. And the fanatical base thrives on tossing out anti-Trump pols in primaries.

    It depends on what Senate seats are up for election this year, as to whom is theoretically at risk from such a move.

    But we are also likely at a point where Trump's base can't get an alternative onto the ballot at this point.

    Interestingly, it may have started - with GOP senators (including Graham) stating that have no interest at this point in approving a new AJ for NY, and Graham specifically saying he would honour tradition and allow the home state Senators to sign off on any replacement.

    767:

    It appears that W Barr is stirring up a lot of shit against himself with his openly corrupt intervention on DT's behalf - the NY prosecutor who is refusing to go looks as though he's on to something really sensitive & explosive.

    Not necessarily - Barr is buddies with the guy from the SEC who he wanted to parachute in - but more likely this was simply revenge for what has happened so far to Trump minions.

    The key point (I think) is that this was at the federal level - the danger for Trump post-being-President is from the State level, and Barr has not authority over that (though it is possible a federal AG might also go after him).

    I presume that the louder the "base" scream for DT, the more the rest of the country edges away? Yes?

    No comment - as has been obvious for about 10 years now the electorate does not behave rationally.

    (well, a minor comment - watch the polls in the next couple of weeks as Trump restarts his rallies, and see if it impacts the people beyond the idiots who actually attend).

    Bolton is a dangerous old-fashioned rightwing War Hawk ... yet even he thinks DT is not safe to be allowed out.

    Not really - Bolton's problem is that Trump won't do what Bolton wanted, and worse has actively gone against everything the GOP stood for until Trump - strong NATO, etc.

    My guess is that Trump promised Bolton something (perhaps invading Iran?) in exchange for Bolton joining the administration, and Trump reneged - and thus the book. It was obvious in the weeks prior to Bolton being ousted that unlike many he was going to air the dirty laundry at some point.

    That's really scary.

    No - Bolton is scarier. Trump has essentially been a trainwreck and disaster for the US, but for the most part the damage has (so far) been restricted to within the US.

    Bolton, the little I have heard/read, would quite happily be starting wars based on his ideology around the globe - and that to me would be far more dangerous.

    768:

    I do find myself wondering how much of the US hysteria over masking is being ginned up by psyops operations out of Russia and China.

    Roughly 1/3 to 2/3?

    Not about masks specifically, but not wearing masks seems to fit in with the rest of the 'we must reopen'/'covid is a conspiracy' thing.

    https://www.cs.cmu.edu/news/nearly-half-twitter-accounts-discussing-‘reopening-america’-may-be-bots

    The research team cannot point to specific entities behind the orchestrated attempts to influence online conversations. "We do know that it looks like it's a propaganda machine, and it definitely matches the Russian and Chinese playbooks, but it would take a tremendous amount of resources to substantiate that," Carley said.

    769:

    Growing pro-drug plants may be problematic (although would miniature marijuana be useful, or not?),

    Easy answer - yes.

    One, we have (well, a certain part of society) a lot of experience essentially growing the plants artificially so that is for the most part a solved problem.

    But having something like marijuana on hand to medicate long term someone who finds the stress/confinement too much seems an easy win vs. trying to carry enough pills.

    And in the grand scheme of things it is also likely safe enough to give people a way to "escape" without them resorting to secretly creating something in a hidden storage locker...

    770:

    Interesting article in Vanity Fair that suggests Trump's "base" are not a political movement, but are instead a religious cult:

    Attempted to read it but couldn't.

    I will give the author the benefit of the doubt and agree that most/all of those who attend the rallies are likely as described - but the minuscule number of people who attend his rallies are not his base.

    And there is no way his base is part of a religious cult that has Trump as God - because the Southern Baptists and the various Evangelical churches supporting him would never allow their existing god (who conveniently can't contradict them in their attempts to take money from their members) to be replaced by someone who can directly challenge them.

    No, his base is motivated by good old racism and, as I saw somewhere online today, sticking it to others. They have been left behind by the political establishment, they are too stupid to realize the best way to deal with it, so someone like Trump who making the establishment unhappy is good enough for them.

    771:

    If we're talking edibles rather than smoking, I agree. I don't think they've tested igniting marijuana in microgravity, but I do know they've tested baking cookies on the ISS (sadly, the resulting cookies were shipped back for analysis of an experimental oven, rather than consumed).

    I also agree that the space brewery might be more problematic than growing plants, although Budweiser is flying experiments for malting barley in space. However, the space issues (pun intended) for brewing and distilling are rather larger than I thought (13 pounds of starch for one gallon of alcohol). The money quote: "A still requires everything you do not want on a spaceship—fire, high pressure, steam, chemical fumes—and the one thing you can't have without breaking the laws of physics: gravity."

    772:

    Today is the summer solstice. It's also the new moon, There are some who keep track of such things. :-)

    I've enjoyed the video clips of Blue seats (empty, and ... blue), and will be tempted to watch video of it, or at least highlights at 1.5x.

    773:

    "It is, however, the setting for Julian May's Saga of Pliocene Exile, and rather underused as an exotic exoplanet setting. Poul Anderson also used it as a setting for one of his time patrol stories, IIRC."

    Also for The Gandalara Cycle by Randall Garrett and Vicki Ann Heydron.

    JHomes

    774:

    Linebarger's Psychological Warfare If anyone wants to skim it (it's old but many methods can be mapped to current tech/practice), gutenberg.org has it: Psychological Warfare (html, PAUL M. A. LINEBARGER, 1954?)

    775:

    So early reports seem to be a less than full crowd, with few people at the outdoor overflow stage where both Pence and Trump were supposed to appear but cancelled.

    Obviously bad given the Trump campaign trying to blame a non-existent mass of protesters preventing Trump supporters from getting into the arena - an attempt not only to spin but perhaps to prevent the wrath of DT.

    Will need to see how it plays out, but early thoughts are it isn't a good sign for Trump - with it being the first rally in many months under normal circumstances could have expected the faithful to have driven from multiple states to get there.

    776:

    Given, as I noted earlier, that Biden has said he will not pardon, not only the states but the US AG Biden appoints, if elected, will get all the evidence (Mueller, Congress, the Senate and the FBI and NSA) may well go after all of them - they have been world-class at attacking the entire bureaucracy, and there are folks who have spent their lives at that... and not one is happy.

    And if they go after Mitch (deals with a Russian oligarch to build a factory in KY?), they could break the GOP.

    777:

    Growing plants... yeah... Back in the sixties and seventies, Kansas was the biggest source of weed in the US. Seems that during WWII, in fear of the Japanese cutting off the supplied of hemp from southeast Asia (hawsers, etc) that they told the farmers in Kansas that, though it was illegal (law was crazy, all types of hemp) they should grow it for the war effort. After the war was over, they told them to stop.

    One leetle difficulty: ever try to stop growing a weed?

    778:

    Sits back and reads, quizzically. Why not a vacuum still?

    779:

    Some social media self-contained universes got involved, particularly K-pop. Together they gamed the Trump campaign, acquiring a lot of (free) tickets. One fun part; Brad Parscale collected a lot of email addresses from people who were playing games with the Trump campaign, and that list will be really difficult to clean up, 'cause there are gamers on the other side of the email addresses. Local BLM protest was cancelled (reported; did not verify), and the stores that boarded up will be remembered as delusional idiots by at least a few locals. The 1/2 full venue means fewer chances of infection, which is good. (Mask wearing was about 5 percent in a few stills; big room so ventilation was better than typical inside.)

    Oh, and Donald J. Trump drank a glass of water one-handed, and the audience cheered. Loudly. Spy-flies on the wall might have reported that he was practicing that move all week. :-)

    780:

    Well, yes. I suppose letting a bit of vacuum into the ship for the purposes of entertainment would be a good thing...Actually, it was mentioned in that article I quoted. I just liked the quote for everyone who thought that setting up a moonshine still in a vacant rack would be easy to do.

    There are still some interesting problems with brewing in orbit, and the amount of starch needed to produce alcohol is actually a rather large one, because grains are not all starch, nor are potatoes. For example, with wheat that's several large bags of flour thrown at making a case of beer. That better be surplus production of the system, or there will be trouble.

    781:

    And that emptyness seems to have been started by a grandmother from Fort Dodge, who'd been on tiktok for a year, and get the ball rolling.

    The media reports 175 protesters outside.

    782:

    Another way to make alcohol is to thermal crack longer chain hydrocarbons into ethylene, then add a hydroxide across the double bond. If you were careful to clean up the ethylene you should get a very clean product.

    783:

    Alcohol is a particularly shit drug for a spaceship though. It takes such a large quantity to do any good and requires such an enormous quantity of stuff to make it from. Making it also emits CO2 as a by-product, as if you weren't needing to get rid of the stuff already. It makes you do stupidly dangerous things incompetently while being contrarily convinced that your skill and performance are second to none. And it makes you forcibly eject large quantities of noxious fluids in a largely uncontrolled manner in zero g, and everyone hates you for the rest of the trip.

    Weed is a much better bet because you need a much lesser amount and you can get it as essentially a by-product of your air recycling system, and then use the rest of the plant to make rope with. (Don't give me "you don't need rope on a spaceship", of course you do, you always need rope on a ship.) And it doesn't make you go gung-ho at doing stupidly dangerous things; you have plenty of stupid ideas, but you can't be arsed to do anything about them and if you do try you think you're doing even worse than you are.

    And anyway, for goodness' sake, you're in space, you need a space drug. Of course it's got to be weed. Who wants that rotting earth drug up here anyway?

    784:

    "It's also possible to be a practicing Christian and teach evolution (I know of two cases, one of whom I really admire both as a scientist and a human being), so I suspect the correlation is much more complex than one might expect."

    It's only a problem if you insist on taking the Bible absolutely literally (when it is not a literal document), denying any figurative or poetic use of language in it (when it has a lot), and treating it as a modern day scientific textbook (which it is nothing like). You do get some people who do that of course, but it's mostly a position taken by people slagging off what they think it says without actually having read it, because if you do read it and try and interpret it in that way you get such bleeding silly answers that it's obvious that you can't be doing it right. (To most people, at any rate.)

    I do get the impression it's a lot more of a problem in America because shouting about your dead literal take on the Bible is one of the essential achievements for the rack of merit badges that you have to display and polish to assert your status as a "proper Christian". But then I keep getting blasts of cognitive dissonance on here when someone uses "Christian" to mean something completely different from and much more unpleasant than what I generally think it means and I have to remind myself that they're American. What they mean is a lot less common over here and nobody really meets them, except Greg, who knows where they all live.

    (Aside: denial of metaphor is another thing Asimov criticised Velikovsky for.)

    785:

    I'm just waiting for some deep trawl or grapple to pull up a boulder from the bottom of one of those basins, which is reliably dated at 5M/5k years old (depending which it is), and has half a shot hole in it.

    786:

    Heteromeles The area which is now filled by the Black Sea was previously the Euxine Lake - in the same place, but a lot smaller. At some point, the rising post-glacial sea levels will have overtopped the barriers between the Med & the Euxine. The questions are: When? More than once? How long did it take? How fast did the water rise? Also, like Doggerland, remains of settlements & artificts have been recovered from near to the edge of the former Euxine Lake.

    Ah yes - I think you are correct - Kavanaugh.

    Psy war ... what about where it's blindingly obvious that your guvmint is both lying to you AND has double standards? You have heard of Dominic Scummings, I presume? Now what?

    I also agree that the space brewery might be more problematic Oh dear: oh dearie me - have you ever read Poul Anderson's "A bicycle built for brew" ?? For distillation - heat rather than fire as such & can't you rig a vacuum-still instead? As I see whitroth has also noticed!

    ( Weeds - I'm presently attempting to re-introduce a useful spice plant to the UK - the seeds are delicious if ground into fried rice or lightly spiced dishes. ]

    787:

    W.r.t. calorific needs. That is true but seriously misleading when it comes to exercise. 8 hours of steady (not heavy) work doesn't multiply the base level by a mere 1.9, but by 3! Also, it goes up if you need any energy to keep warm. That requirement is well-known to the military and serious hill-walkers.

    All that means is that there needs to be some kind of staple crop that produces starch or oil - which is also why early inhabitants of northern Europe and Asia HAD to herd or hunt (the native plants produce little of either, except in autumn). It's not a big deal, as there are plenty of them.

    788:

    Given, as I noted earlier, that Biden has said he will not pardon, not only the states but the US AG Biden appoints, if elected, will get all the evidence (Mueller, Congress, the Senate and the FBI and NSA) may well go after all of them - they have been world-class at attacking the entire bureaucracy, and there are folks who have spent their lives at that... and not one is happy.

    US AG's need to be done through the Senate, thus the importance of DNC winning the Senate - if they don't then Biden has issues.

    But I suspect for a variety of reason the US AG's will be happy to let the State ones take the lead - not the least because any State level stuff can't be pardoned by the next GOP President (the exception to this could well be the federal NY AG office - the last couple of days has likely motivated them to make an example to not interfere with the running of their office).

    But at the end of the day the federal AG's might be more productive going after the lower minions who enabled some of what DT has done, but aren't prominent enough to ever get a future pardon.

    And if they go after Mitch (deals with a Russian oligarch to build a factory in KY?), they could break the GOP.

    I understand the hatred of Mitch - but don't expect anyone to go after him.

    Unlike DT and his minions Mitch appears to be more competent, and thus has likely been careful with anything he has done.

    With respect to the factory in KY, a quick look reveals the oligarch did some necessary things to make Treasury happy and thus I doubt there is anything there beyond the normal (as in any politician does it) stuff to get local investment - at least on paper.

    789:

    Local BLM protest was cancelled (reported; did not verify)

    The best thing at this point anyone opposed to Trump can do is simply ignore his campaign rallies - he has turned their protests into a positive for him and thus depriving him of that attack platform to pump up his base will achieve more than any protest can.

    Oh, and Donald J. Trump drank a glass of water one-handed, and the audience cheered. Loudly. Spy-flies on the wall might have reported that he was practicing that move all week. :-)

    More likely some sort of prescription drug to temporarily deal with the issue.

    790:

    Re: ' ... doesn't multiply the base level by a mere 1.9, but by 3!'

    Agree - same for certain groups of athletes.

    That said, this is actually an 'improved' (more variables considered) quick-and-dirty formula to calculate caloric needs for the remaining 95%-98% of the population. BTW - this formula might also over-estimate caloric needs for the very low metabolism folk. Healthcare a la normal distribution curve - whatcha gonna do!?

    • Just like you're supposed to be fully immersed in a vat of (usu. room-temp) water in order to accurately measure your BMI.
    791:

    Yes, and under-estimate for other people. There are also significant differences in the ability of people to absorb nutrients, but most of those at the bottom end would be weeded out before take-off.

    I have pointed out several times to the people who say that you can't lose weight by mere exercise that is true for going to a gym, but is NOT true for a week's walking or cycling, especially when sleeping out in cool weather. In the past, I have burnt 6-7,000 calories a day, and I am no athlete, which is also what the military reckon for soldiers on active duty.

    792:

    The best story about the dried-up Mediterranean I read was "Down in the Bottomlands". Normally, I can't stand his work, because I intensely dislike the tropes he favours, but that was an exception.

    793:

    That is wrong, sorry. At its peak (say, 10-15,000 years BP), world-wide sea levels were rising at c. 2 cm a year. In alluvial terrain (very popular with H. sapiens), that often leads to a significant loss of land area within even a single primitive's living memory. And, in some places, there are considerable areas that are shielded from the sea by higher ground, so will become water-covered in a single storm.

    I don't find any difficulty in believing that the occurrence of such a traumatic event survived in oral tradition for ten millennia, though it would almost certainly be garbled into something close to mythology. But doesn't Genesis read just like mythology to you?

    From what Wikipedia says, if that were the case, it would almost certainly have been an oral tradition in an illiterate society until it got adopted into Babylonian myth. You only have to look at British myths to see that isn't exactly an uncommon phenomenon!

    794:

    Mars:

    The big problem I can see for any colonisation, aside from distance, atmosphere, radiation and power, is that pretty much the whole regolith has ubiquitous perchlorates, at 0.5% to 1%. That's a big 'this whole planet is toxic to us' biochemistry problem for both humans, bacteria and plants.

    Longevity of myths based in events:

    The Gunditjmara in southeast Australia probably hold the record for long lived mythology relating to actual events - they seem to have a story cycle that records volcanic activity that happened around 40 thousand years ago

    I've also seen papers arguing for more than one set of Australian story cycles that record now flooded or island topography from 7 to 12 thousand years ago as it was on coastal plains before sea level rise isolated it.

    795:

    I saw your re-twit of the encrochat breach. ( https://twitter.com/FLAnderson/status/1274239266722381825 )

    In our extreme surveillance societies, I'm starting to think that the only way to securely transmit secret informations between plotters is to do a modern take on cold war's "feeding the ducks" (the trope where spies were given instructions in a public park around a pond) :

    Head to a beach, strip to trunks, discuss the topic of the day in the water, facing the sea (to avoid remote lip reading with high resolution cameras).

    Better yet, go to a nudist beach with a lots of waves (white noise). No hidden recorder in clothes ! and salt water isn't good for electronics.

    And there is comic relief potential in having a few serious looking middle aged men going to a nudist place, strip, ignore all the young flesh around, and get sunburns if the discussion is long...

    But I have probably a dirty mind.

    796:

    Head to a beach, strip to trunks, discuss the topic of the day in the water, facing the sea (to avoid remote lip reading with high resolution cameras).

    Like the Mob?

    797:

    Weed is a much better bet because you need a much lesser amount and you can get it as essentially a by-product of your air recycling system, and then use the rest of the plant to make rope with.

    See the discussion in the previous post about "retting." Basically you've got to get rid of all the parts of the plant that aren't cellulose fibers. One way is to carefully rot these, but given the way it smells, I doubt that would work in a small spacecraft. Enzymatic prep might work, but you've got to carry the enzymes.

    In any case, if you're going to do more than feed the dross to the crickets and shunt it into the poop recycling stream, it's better as feedstock than fiber. Specifically, cannabis stems can be turned into cellulose feedstocks for plastics. I suspect this is too complex to run on a spaceship, but if it's possible to processs small quantities (big handwave), then perhaps you can use the marijuana remnants to make feedstock for a 3-D printer? I suspect the answer is somewhere between no and are you serious, but it's worth a shot.

    Anyway, if you're growing dwarf marijuana, you're not getting much in the way of fiber length, so any rope you make is going to be pretty weak.

    798:

    There is absolutely no difficulty in transferring the contents of a communication securely, if done right; I am no expert, and I wouldn't have difficulty in giving the top spooks an intractable problem. What is hard is to hide the fact of it, the time, and the locations, so they would simply adopt the approach below.

    The other thing that is hard given modern insecure systems is to stop the spooks from trapping your device once they have identified it. While you can solve that by burning every device after using it once, it's one hell of a hassle. The alternative is to use a secure system, but designing one to cope with today's insecure interfaces would be a major project. On the other hand, designing one that would give the top spooks a real headache (and probably defeat them) for a very limited communication use would be feasible.

    799:

    Heteromeles @ 744: Please do the math.

    100 meters/100,000 years=0.01 meter/year, or 1 centimeter a year. Yes, over their lifetimes, coastal dwellers during this era see the sea reclaiming the land. But that happens normally, in historical times, and you don't see stories of monstrous floods being inspired by such erosion.

    Note that I don't disagree with you about people living in areas that are now below the range of ordinary SCUBA (100 meters down). However, that's not Noah's flood. A better example of a Noachian flood is something like the great flood of 1862 in California. Which, oddly enough, has largely been forgotten, rather than being legendary.

    And over 100,000 years it ALWAYS changed at EXACTLY the average rate of 1 centimeter per year. By your metric it's no wonder your great flood of 1862 in California has been forgotten, because it could not have happened; water levels never change by more than 1 centimeter in a year.

    That's good news for people who worry about man made climate change. Even if the arctic/antarctic ice caps do melt, it won't cause sea levels to rise by more than 1 centimeter per year, so we'll have plenty of time to adjust.

    "Do the math."

    800:

    I want to highlight Elderly Cynic and JBS for acting precisely the same way that Young Earth Creationists do when someone criticizes their beliefs. If you someone like me touches of their unquestioned beliefs, out comes the semi-incoherent rage.

    The essential practice of science is being able to keep your emotions in check when your data and beliefs are questioned, and having the courage to admit you're wrong when you're wrong, and to move on, even when you feel your status has been diminished. That's why science is a discipline, not a religion.

    801:

    The essential practice of science is being able to keep your emotions in check when your data and beliefs are questioned, and having the courage to admit you're wrong when you're wrong

    The most common failings of the smartest (but most any measure EXCEPT social interaction ability) people I personally know are:

    • Dealing with being wrong

    • Conflating their opinions with fact when making a point.

    And I know that at times I have failed at both points. Even when not even close to being the smartest person in the room.

    802:

    Nojay @ 746: Please verify the 2TB drive's contents BEFORE you pack it up. Please?

    I've read of someone who was asked to help a friend sort out his backup drive -- the friend had pulled it from a NAS RAID array thinking the files could be read trivially on another system if required. Explaining to the drive's owner the intricacies of data striped across multiple disks in a proprietary format was, apparently, a lost cause, as were the files the friend wanted to recover.

    It's a simple volume formatted NTFS, so I don't think I'll have any problems reading it if I ever need to go back to it. However, I did also verify that all of the files had copied correctly to the new 4TB simple volume also formatted NTFS.

    88,800 some files copied successfully with only two files corrupted(?) in the process1. I was able to manually re-copy those two files, although I will still need to go through the new volume to briefly verify all of the images are intact. That's probably going to take a few days.

    In the meantime, I'll still have the old 2TB drive packed in the anti-static bag, plastic air-bag & original box, labeled & stored away in my file cabinet.

    I'm kind of impressed with the way Newegg packs hard-drives. The drives came in the standard anti-static bags, with an additional sleeve of heavy plastic airbags around it in the box. And then the three boxes were packed inside a larger carton, cushioned by more airbags.

    1 Comparing the two volumes using Windiff. One file was a Photoshop .psd file that had picked up some kind of color cast and the other was a camera raw (.dng) file that I couldn't see any difference. I re-copied them both anyway.

    803:

    "pretty much the whole regolith has ubiquitous perchlorates, at 0.5% to 1%. That's a big 'this whole planet is toxic to us' biochemistry problem for both humans, bacteria and plants."

    It's a bloody wonderful answer to "where do we get our oxygen from", though. No need for any of that fearfully energy-consuming wrenching of the stuff free from highly stable combination with the other bits of rocks, all you have to do is tickle the ground a bit and breathe the result. It's almost as if that movie where Arnie gets a rubber face was on to something.

    804:

    dpb @ 752: The story of Temple OS was not a happy one. The creator Terry A Davis suffered from schizophrenia and ended up homeless in the months prior to his death.

    Attracting the attention of the wrong parts of the internet did not help matters. Sociopathic teenagers pushing mentally ill peoples buttons for fun is apparently a popular spectator sport in some parts.

    Someone made a surprisingly good independent documentary about the whole affair. It is quite depressing.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UCgoxQCf5Jg

    I just wish I could get YouTube's ad block to work the way it says it should (able to block specific individual ads - "On YouTube, select Info ⓘ > Stop seeing this ad.").

    805:

    I think it's pretty well established that building an ark to keep your livestock in until the water went down again was a standard practice in those parts, including the bits about sending pidgies out to see if there's any dry land nearby yet. The Noah story is one of those myths that are basically an exaggerated version of an accustomed type of calamity and the stuff people did anyway to cope with it.

    806:

    "And there is comic relief potential in having a few serious looking middle aged men going to a nudist place, strip, ignore all the young flesh around, and get sunburns if the discussion is long..."

    I dunno, from what I hear of what nudist beaches are like they'd probably fit right in. People who wander into one by accident always seem to report discovering their mistake by tripping over some saggy grey wrinkled reminder of why the custom of wearing clothes is a very good idea in a hollow in the dunes. I think the separated areas thing isn't so much so that they don't get seen by other people as so that other people don't have to see them.

    807:

    ...and there we have exactly the reason why I don't use hardware RAID.

    808:

    whitroth @ 755: About Velikovsky: trying to explain things he didn't know with the crap he wrote might have been fine, around the time he was born (1895). By 1950, it was whacko crapola.

    Yeah, I'm not defending Velikovsky's theories, merely that part of his thesis that says ancient myths & legends represent real, pre-literate people's oral traditions trying to explain phenomena they witnessed; i.e. God didn't create Noah's flood, it didn't last 40 days & 40 nights ... but the oral tradition of the story does represent something people witnessed.

    On the other hand, I'll give you a candidate for the Great Flood, and Eden, while we're at it: somewhere between 15k years ago and 10k? 7.5k? glaciation had gone down and the sea level risen enough to break through from the Atlantic to the Mediterranean basin. A lot time ago, I read it might have filled up at about 10mi/yr, but.....

    I don't think so. According to Wikipedia that Zanclean flood occurred around 5.33 million years ago. The earliest evidence for humans existing outside of Africa (that I'm aware of) is dated around 2.2 million years ago, so I don't think there were any people around at the time to witness it.

    Plus, the Straits of Gibraltar are far, far to the west of the fertile crescent. The oral tradition that was later written down in the bible comes from people who settled in the fertile crescent and brought along their myths about a lost Garden of Eden located somewhere to their east.

    809:

    whitroth @ 756: So, the Prosperity Doctrine writ large?

    That does seem to be a part of it, but I don't think it's the whole thing.

    810:

    What on earth are you blithering about? You posted some plain nonsense, and I was correcting it. You can check the rise in global sea levels by looking at any serious reference on the topic, and the topographic issues by looking at any decent small-scale maps of (say) Lincolnshire.

    I have absolutely NO idea if the myth started that way, but I can easily believe that it did. Your claim that it couldn't possibly have is just simple bollocks.

    811:

    I have no problem using hardware and even software RAID and recommending it to others for its utility in terms of speed and/or high uptime with some resilience. I tear my hair out at the folks who think RAID means they don't have to back up any data they regard as valuable to other media and preferably offsite.

    812:

    David L @ 760:

    Trump / Barr / Mitch / Gorsuch?

    The federal level system going after Trump would set a very bad precedent. But New York and maybe even Florida, then others as details leak out, that could happen.

    Mitch and Gorsuch haven't broken any laws that I can see. They just twist the rules in way you (and many others) can't stand. Gorsuch has just proven he is doing exactly what he said he would do. Interpreting laws based on the text of the law. Which has all kinds of the right wing in the US in a huge snit just now. In their minds he was supposed to do what they wanted, not follow some stupid rules about properly interpreting laws and such.

    I don't know about Gorsuch1, but Moscow Mitch (Putin's Bitch) McConnell accepted stolen computer data from the Russians BEFORE the 2016 election (long before, ca 2014) and used it in that year's RICO Greedy Oligarchs' Party Congressional campaigns. Receiving & using data stolen by computer hacking IS a Federal Crime, especially since the computers were U.S. Government (Congressional Democratic caucus) computers.

    Moscow Mitch (Putin's Bitch) is at least as guilty of violating the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act as that kid the Department of INJustice hounded to death for downloading the JSTORE archive.

    1 "I don't know" meaning, I don't know what crime's he's committed, but since he IS a member in good standing of the RICO Greedy Oligarchs' Party, there are bound to be some if prosecutors will only dig deep enough.

    813:

    Besides, when the pirates shoot your thrusters, if you can't make bheer, how are you going to get to the nearest space station?

    814:

    Heteromeles @ 761: I'll point out, again, that California received up to 3 meters of rain in one month in 1862 and that the Sacramento Valley flooded 10 feet deep. There's good evidence for such floods around 2900 BCE and other times in Iraq, which has a topography comparable to the Sacramento Valley. Why look further afield for an origin of an ark story? The land where the term "ark" was coined occasionally had really bad floods.

    Nope. Didn't happen. Sea levels can only rise by 1 cm per year.

    Do the math!

    815:

    According to the media, there were about 125 protestors.

    Hmmm, prescription drug for the problem, hadn't thought of that, and the outside speech at West Point, he might have dehydrated enough to need another dose.

    I still think ministroke, or a series of them.

    816:

    For Heteromeles sake, I need to point out that I am not supporting your first paragraph. I would do so with the changed wording "but the oral tradition of the story might well have represent something people witnessed."

    To clarify, I can believe it, and I can believe that it's wrong.

    817:

    Nothing wrong with nudist places (or, for that matter, clothing optional beaches, such as Playalinda National Seashore (past parking area 13, across the Indian River from KSC, and Pad 39).

    And as someone noted, they'd fit right in... or did you think that the only people who should be allowed to go clothing optional are required to be ones you, personally, find attractive?

    On the other hand, standing in the ocean... what about the Russian trawlers, or the sub offshore?

    818:

    Very simple, very ancient answer: one-time pad.

    And then there's the "which edition of that book that you're extracting words from are they using?"

    819:

    Of course, my instant reaction to this is to complain that those of you who think you know everything are such a trial to those of us who do.

    820:

    shrug. I'm used to drives in their basic boxes, inside a larger bos with foam (but then, were I was working, we'd buy 20 at a clip).

    And I REALLY like hardware RAID, with an actual controller card (like LSI). Intel on-motherboard has been known as fakeraid for 10 years.

    My root drive - /boot, / and swap, are currently on a Linux software RAID 1.

    RAID is NOT a substitute for backups. (I back /home, and /etc to another drive. Then I drop a 4TB drive in my eSATA external drive bay and back that up, unmount it, and turn it off, so a power surge can't touch it.)

    (Why, yes, I did back up everything but the huge (66TB and up RAIDS) drive at work once ever two weeks this way, and put the backup drives in a fire safe, and did that for 10 years.)

    821:

    The problem with one-time pads is how do you distribute them securely with an absolute guarantee of non-interception of the pad details before they arrive at their destination? This is why the professionals LOVE amateurs who think they have found a way to stick it to The Man.

    822:

    Feeding the ducks :-) Yes, that flaw is also why the claims for the merits of 'trusted third-party' systems like Kerberos and SSL are such crap.

    823:

    Perchlorates... tickle the surface... so, oxidizer for solid fuel rockets, laying all over the ground?

    824:

    Sorry, that works just fine.

    I will note that a) like a club steering wheel lock, if a professional wants your car, they'll get it; it deters amateurs; and b) even the professionals, with all their computing power, can't always succeed, and if they do, it can take a WHILE (the FBI broke someone's iPhone, but it took six or seven months).

    And then there's the other decryption method: you're tied to a chair, and they've got brass knuckles.

    825:

    mdlve @ 770:

    Interesting article in Vanity Fair that suggests Trump's "base" are not a political movement, but are instead a religious cult:

    Attempted to read it but couldn't.

    You probably should try again & keep trying until you get through it. It was difficult for me to read too, because it extensively quotes so many stupid people.

    I will give the author the benefit of the doubt and agree that most/all of those who attend the rallies are likely as described - but the minuscule number of people who attend his rallies are not his base.

    They ARE his base. They're the core part, the basest base of his base. In marketing there's a concept of market influencers; social media "mavens" the ones who lead the trends on Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, 4chan ...

    The followers who attend the rallies are those "mavens" for Trumpolini's cult.

    And there is no way his base is part of a religious cult that has Trump as God - because the Southern Baptists and the various Evangelical churches supporting him would never allow their existing god (who conveniently can't contradict them in their attempts to take money from their members) to be replaced by someone who can directly challenge them.

    He doesn't challenge evangelical "leaders". He's the apotheosis of their "teachings"; he's the capo di tutti i capi to all the con men, and at heart preachers, particularly fundamentalist evangelical preachers are con men. As Whitroth noted, "Prosperity Doctrine writ large" ... or "Prosperity Gospel" if you will. They can't repudiate him without repudiating themselves.

    And Southern Baptists are a mainstream denomination. Their "leaders" are afraid to speak out, because they'll lose too many of their followers to his cult if they speak out against his transgressions ... assuming there any of those "leaders" who haven't themselves fallen into his cult.

    No, his base is motivated by good old racism and, as I saw somewhere online today, sticking it to others. They have been left behind by the political establishment, they are too stupid to realize the best way to deal with it, so someone like Trump who making the establishment unhappy is good enough for them.

    It's a racism based in a very peculiar reading of the Bible1. They haven't been left behind, they're a classic case of the little fish turning around and swallowing the big fish. The entirety of the Greedy Oligarchs Party leadership trembles before them.

    1 And not really that peculiar, it just emphasizes the Old Testament God of smiting over the Loving God supposedly represented by Jesus in the New. If you read the Old Testament with a critical eye, you'll find that tribal racism is at the heart of most of it.

    It really does instruct the Israelites to "Kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out"

    826:

    whitroth @ 776: And if they go after Mitch (deals with a Russian oligarch to build a factory in KY?), they could break the GOP.

    Moscow Mitch already broke the GREEDY OLIGARCHS PARTY. There hasn't been an actual "Republican" party since before Gingrinch was a Congressional freshman. There is only the RICO gang of criminals that has taken their name.

    827:

    "And over 100,000 years it ALWAYS changed at EXACTLY the average rate of 1 centimeter per year. By your metric it's no wonder your great flood of 1862 in California has been forgotten, because it could not have happened; water levels never change by more than 1 centimeter in a year."

    The Central Valley of California is not an ocean. The flood of 1862 was rain-induced flooding. If this doesn't seem possible to you, consult an atlas and consider what happens when a really big rainstorm can't get over the Sierra Nevada range, and it not only rains on the valley, but on the mountains on either side of the valley!

    You might be right about sea-level rise - I haven't researched that, but the Central Valley Flood had nothing to do with sea-level rise.

    828:

    Heteromeles @ 780: Well, yes. I suppose letting a bit of vacuum into the ship for the purposes of entertainment would be a good thing...Actually, it was mentioned in that article I quoted. I just liked the quote for everyone who thought that setting up a moonshine still in a vacant rack would be easy to do.

    If my great-uncle in [REDACTED], KY could figure out how to build one in his attic & hide it from the revenuers for 50+ years, I'm pretty sure it's a problem amenable to solution by a bunch of rocket scientists.

    829:

    Indeed Bolton is a very dangerous evil person. He's the one who dismantled the CDC pandemic preparedness and response programs and directives, from one day to the next, and among many other things, dismantled Obama's opening up of Cuba and thereafter making it even more draconian than in the days of the bushwaws and that was awful.

    In the meantime Cuba's crushing the virus, while we have thrown up our hands O No it's too hard, what the hell let old people die it's good for the economy.

    830:

    Elderly Cynic @ 792: The best story about the dried-up Mediterranean I read was "Down in the Bottomlands". Normally, I can't stand his work, because I intensely dislike the tropes he favours, but that was an exception.

    I remember that one. Probably read it back when I was working for the alarm company. Kind of a detective story & the "hero" is a Neanderthal.

    831:

    Heteromeles @ 800: The essential practice of science is being able to keep your emotions in check when your data and beliefs are questioned, and having the courage to admit you're wrong when you're wrong, and to move on, even when you feel your status has been diminished. That's why science is a discipline, not a religion.

    You should practice what you preach. Don't talk the talk if you can't walk the walk.

    832:

    Elderly Cynic @ 810: What on earth are you blithering about? You posted some plain nonsense, and I was correcting it. You can check the rise in global sea levels by looking at any serious reference on the topic, and the topographic issues by looking at any decent small-scale maps of (say) Lincolnshire.

    Nor did it likely happen at a rate of exactly 1cm per year as some have suggested.

    833:

    Reports are that even Fox News is calling out the DT campaign and it's lies about yesterday's rallies - with on air personality rebutting every claim made by DT campaign spokesperson in inteview.

    As result, Trump is going to his wall in Arizona on Tuesday.

    834:

    If you don't realize what's wrong with what you're saying, you really, again, need to go back and do the math again. It's not just the calculation, it's that you've got such a bad sense of the relative time scales involved. To give you an idea of how blurry your sense of the past is, if you claimed that King Arthur used a musket named Excalibur that he got from the Minoans to fight in the Wars of the Roses so he could create the Bank of the England and found capitalism, it would make rather more temporal sense than trying to claim that the Noah legend of 40 days of rain was a remembrance of the end of the last Ice Age.

    This is especially so since the Ark legend originated in an area where archeologists have found obvious evidence of huge river floods caused by long spells of rain.

    835:

    Elderly @ 816: For Heteromeles sake, I need to point out that I am not supporting your first paragraph. I would do so with the changed wording "but the oral tradition of the story might well have represent something people witnessed."

    To clarify, I can believe it, and I can believe that it's wrong.

    Say rather that oral traditions are rarely made up out of whole cloth. At the heart of any oral tradition about a catastrophic event there is probably an actual catastrophe witnessed by the first proponents of that oral tradition.

    I don't insist that the flooding of the Persian Gulf was THE flood related in the book of Genesis.

    I don't believe there was an actual flood that covered the highest mountains to the depth of 15 cubits. As I've stated repeatedly, the oral traditions are an attempt to explain something the people who created them did not understand. They knew nothing about climate change or melting glaciers (icecaps), but they could see when the ocean was rising up to fill what was once a fertile valley.

    The Persian Gulf flooded within human memory; that it did not occur at exactly the rate of 1cm per year, and it is a reasonably good candidate for the root event behind the oral traditions of the Mesopotamian flood myths.

    And if you don't know about Plate Tectonics, Continental Drift, Subduction and Orogeny lifting former sea beds up to make mountains, how do you explain finding all those sea shells on top of those mountains? Maybe there was a great flood similar to the one that is taking away our Garden of Eden, aka the "Persian Gulf Oasis.

    I say it's a reasonably good candidate because it's in the right location for the garden as described in those Mesopotamian myths.

    But, fundamentally, I think it's reasonable that behind the myth is a pre-literate oral tradition attempting to explain phenomena the originators of that tradition witnessed. That doesn't mean they got it right or that the myth hasn't morphed over time (particularly under the pressure of "my god is bigger and badder than your god".

    836:

    The big problem I can see for any colonisation, aside from distance, atmosphere, radiation and power, is that pretty much the whole regolith has ubiquitous perchlorates, at 0.5% to 1%. That's a big 'this whole planet is toxic to us' biochemistry problem for both humans, bacteria and plants.

    To be blunt, colonizing Mars is fairly idiotic, not just for the reasons you noted, but because it's a cold and high radiation environment. The one part we haven't covered yet is that the regolith is at or below freezing, so you've got to insulate against that giant heat sink rather well to keep any habitat livable.

    Indeed, the best way to settle Mars is probably to convince your most powerful rival through clever political posturing that they have to demonstrate their superiority by ruining themselves colonizing Mars. If they succeed, you waltz in and take advantage of the infrastructure they built. If they fail, you waltz in and take advantage of all the money they wasted.

    In other words, it's a great intellectual game, but one that rather sucks to play in real life.

    As for what I write here, I'm more interested in what an anthropologist might call the material culture of space, mostly for writing SF. Most SF in space uses previous models for space ships, the British Navy being a favorite one. Meanwhile, actual space exploration has gotten interestingly different from any historical model. From a creator's perspective, I'd suggest that it's rather more useful to look at where NASA, Russia, China, the ISS, the USSF, and the Industry are going at the moment, mostly because it doesn't really show up in SF literature so much.

    One example is the whole multiple module, public/private partnership construction of spacecraft, as seen in the ISS and the proposed Lunar Gateway, as well as in the USSF and it's Military Industrial Complex. These ships aren't built the way the British Empire built frigates back in the day. Instead, they're composited of modules in a "bus and truss" format that for me is more reminiscent of Andean architecture (or for you, perhaps, a pattern language that recalls how malls or computer programs are built). It's kind of an alien design for most people.

    It's even more alien when you think about an expedition (to the Moon or Mars) that's partially funded by all the experiments shipped up on nanoracks to run while the ship is going to Mars (or wherever) to get data while keeping the astronauts sane and skilled up to explore they get their boots on the regolith. Again, this is very different from the material culture of the explorers who set out during the age of colonial empires.

    Then there are space food considerations. I'd previously been thinking of sapce food in terms of choices from maritime cultures of yore, especially the Polynesians, using them as examples of "living off the land." Turns out that's not so appropriate in space. In space, ship food may well be dwarf plants (up to and including grains), insects, and yes, a variety of cultured fungi and other organisms. Per our discussion here, alcohol turns out to be less useful than marijuana aboard ship, so long as it's eaten rather than smoked, and we've now got some good reasons to make that claim. This is all stuff that someone writing hard science fiction can use. Instead of someone building a still to make Pruno in their cubby, it's more likely that there's a locked rack where the buds are growing, and at appropriate times times, the mission commander will meticulously weigh out the crop and people will give their shares to whoever's cooking up the party food, while the debris goes into the processor to make feedstock for a 3D printer, or gets the disposal crickets stoned.

    837:

    whitroth @ 817: Nothing wrong with nudist places (or, for that matter, clothing optional beaches, such as Playalinda National Seashore (past parking area 13, across the Indian River from KSC, and Pad 39).

    Other than the percentage of the population (especially in the U.S.) that I ABSOLUTELY DO NOT WANT TO SEE NAKED outnumbers the percentage of the population I wouldn't mind seeing by orders of magnitude.

    838:

    whitroth I still think ministroke, or a series of them. Apart from the fact that he's criminally bonkers, anyway ... yes, you are probably correct. What happens if he gets a/the Big One between now & the ekection? I assume the arseholes will swing behind Pence ( Since there is noone else) - but that would surely point to a certain Biden win?

    JBS The same has happened here. There is no longer a "Conservative & Unionist Party" Just a collection of greedy wannabees & crooks, following BoZo & Murdoch for money & power & fuck the rest of us. Of previous "tory" PM's that I can personally remember ... none of: CHurchill, MacmIllan, Hume, Heath or Major, nor, even, Cameron would be haooy with this shower. Eden was simply utterly incompetent & I have no idea, really, which side the Madwoman would back. May was & is an empty shell.

    839:

    They ARE his base. They're the core part, the basest base of his base. In marketing there's a concept of market influencers; social media "mavens" the ones who lead the trends on Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, 4chan ...

    No, they aren't his base - because the base doesn't believe in all the nonsense and conspiracy theories that the people attending his rallies do.

    The only purpose the people at his rallies perform is to make DT look popular & successful on TV, so that his base feel confident in continuing to support him.

    Which is why last night is such a problem for DT's campaign today - because even Fox is saying he wasn't a success.

    840:

    Why not a vacuum still?

    Coz it's easier and probably safer to use a freeze distillation process. Ie, a freezer...

    Sheesh, were none of you ever young and stupid?

    The still is for fractional distillation that gets the water, methanol and "gunk" out, then once you have hydrated ethanol you start the freeze cycles until what's left is as high proof as you're going to get. Maximum throughput, minimum hassle (then, if you're at all smart, you pour it into the punch rather than drinking it straight).

    841:

    Well, there's your cover right there: agent and handler are ordinary male schlubs. They meet on the nudist beach to have a discussion. Since they're not, erm, scenic, everyone looks away. If they leave the beach together to go do some business in the bushes, anybody normally watching will think they're going out to have some anonymous sex. They might get busted for that in some areas. Or they might not. But it's excellent cover.

    And even if they're nude, they can still use "prison wallets" to exchange things like one-time pads or thumb drives (or even phones or wads of cash). Of course, doing exchanges like this requires levels of trust that most people simply don't have, so recruiting agents who are into anonymous sex might actually be a plus.

    842:

    Indeed, the best way to settle Mars is probably to convince your most powerful rival through clever political posturing that they have to demonstrate their superiority by ruining themselves colonizing Mars. If they succeed, you waltz in and take advantage of the infrastructure they built. If they fail, you waltz in and take advantage of all the money they wasted.

    This was how N. America has done by those from N. Europe. For the first 100 years or so it was a disaster to come here. After a while they started to figure out how to make it work.

    S. America I'm not so sure of. The Spanish and Porteguese seemed to find (rape and pillage) enought gold and silver that the losses were considered acceptable.

    They were doing good enough that they had 3 universities by the mid 1500s while the English were still slogging through the mud. https://www.latinobookreview.com/first-three-universities-in-the-americas.html

    843:

    No, they aren't his base - because the base doesn't believe in all the nonsense and conspiracy theories that the people attending his rallies do.

    Sigh. I used to be in your camp. But lately I've run into too many who are into the conspiracies. People I have known for years but rarely interacted with. Now they are posting really insane things on Facebook. And they are NOT stupid. But so far into the cult that they can't even realize they are there.

    844:

    alternative is to use a secure system

    The more tightly you restrict that system the easier it is to secure. I have occasionally wondered why no-one makes thing that just takes USB thumb drives formatted FAT32 as input, has a small screen and a mechanical keyboard, and writes to the same thumb drive as output. I once had an electric typewriter that would have been 90% of such a system (4x40 display and all).

    The joy of making it encryption and text entry/display only is that the software required would be very small and fairly easy to debug then burn to ROM. It could likewise run on nice simple chips (one side benefit: will run on a single 18650 liion cells for ages).

    The thumb drive is going to be the big weakness, there are relatively good open source drivers for inside the device but the CPU in the thumb drive is easy to abuse. So the trick would be nailing down what it's allowed to say to the device.

    846:

    To unpack the cryptic remark about Andean Architecture: I just googled Andean architecture, because I realized that probably the references were to the stonework. They are, and that's not what I meant.

    Until the 20th Century, a good part of Andean (especially Inkan) society was organized around Ayllus: corporate groups of around 50-150 people all claiming relationship. Villages typically consisted of multiple Ayllus. The reason for this grouping is a) Dunbar's number, and b) the Andes has some really short growing seasons, so the best way to plant, build, etc. is to throw a bunch of people on the project and get it done fast. Ayllus are arranged around work reciprocity, so you help build someone's house, they help build yours, you plow part of their fields, they plot part of yours, and so forth.

    The second element is that the culture is competitive: for instance, to get a field prepared with 16 couples, you'd assign each couple 1/8th of the field. First couple to finish, wins (bragging rights, maybe some alcohol). This competitive ethos wasn't just within the ayllus, it was among ayllus too, and this is where we come to traditional Andean architecture.

    To our eyes, it looks kind of weird, but that's because it was built by competing teams. To pick a modern example (some villages are still run by Ayllus), a village may need a new soccer stadium for the kids. If there are, say, 12 ayllus in town, each one builds 1/12th of the stadium. While they have to agree on the overall design, each ayllu competes to build the best stadium segment they can. The resulting stadium will display a bunch of different and discordant design elements, but these will show the results of the competition, which is more important as a status marker. This kind of discordant, modular design is reportedly characteristic of many Inkan and Pre-Inkan settlements.

    That's also how the ISS got built. The US, Russia, Japan, and Canada all contributed modules that do different things, and they each get time and resources proportional to their contribution. If someone was building a Mars mission, it's likely that the ship would get built of a similar mix of modules from governments and corporations, and they'd share risks, resources, and rewards based on their contribution.

    Robinson's Red Mars had a ship (the Ares) built sort of this way, but it's a design principle that I think is underused in the SF literature. That makes it worth exploring, perhaps.

    847:

    You could do that already: If you want to be rude and crude, hack a phone system so that the sim card works the way you want the thumb drive to work above, that turns the phone into the sort of espionage computer you want. Then you pull out the incriminating spy sim card, put in your own, and it's a phone again.

    848:

    The problem with one-time pads is how do you distribute them securely with an absolute guarantee of non-interception of the pad details before they arrive at their destination? Take a risk. :-) A Fire Upon the Deep, Vernor Vinge, 1992: "Our main cargo is a one-time cryptographic pad. The source is Commercial Security at Sjandra Kei; the destination is the certificants' High colony. It was the usual arrangement: We're carrying a one-third xor of the pad. Independent shippers are carrying the others. At the destination, the three parts would be xor'd together. The result could supply a dozen worlds' crypto needs on the Net for---"

    849:

    Sigh. I used to be in your camp. But lately I've run into too many who are into the conspiracies. People I have known for years but rarely interacted with. Now they are posting really insane things on Facebook. And they are NOT stupid. But so far into the cult that they can't even realize they are there.

    Trump has (partially) made a lot of this nonsense acceptable - with a lot of help from Facebook and the Russians and Chinese.

    But, Trump's base is 30% of registered voters and in 2018 there were 153 million registered voters. Thus Trump's base is 46 million Americans - and there aren't 46 million Americans running around believing the sort of nonsense that the linked article quoted (not the least of which because we would be seeing a lot more of the "take a gun to the pizza place" type stuff if there really were 46 million conspiracy nutjobs).

    850:

    That's also how the ISS got built. The US, Russia, Japan, and Canada all contributed modules that do different things, and they each get time and resources proportional to their contribution. If someone was building a Mars mission, it's likely that the ship would get built of a similar mix of modules from governments and corporations, and they'd share risks, resources, and rewards based on their contribution.

    There are 2 problems with this.

    One, by the time this becomes possible most nations will be dealing with climate change, and thus there will be no budget for anything to do with some rich guys dream to die on Mars.

    Two, there is no economic case for private industry to participate. This is the underlying problem, one which most plans to colonize Mars (and most SF, though I have read that much) just wave away as a non-issue. Even with Musk's dramatic cost cuts to getting into orbit building and deploying a fleet of ships to colonize Mars is going to be very expensive.

    I am currently 50, I don't expect the human race to colonize Mars in my lifetime. The moon, maybe, but even that is pushing it - because again, there isn't an economic case for it.

    But also, at some point as climate change becomes apparent to all, the public are going to reject the damage caused by lifting earth resources into space so some rich guy can try and live on Mars.

    851:

    Re: ' ... was a great flood similar to the one that is taking away our Garden of Eden, aka the "Persian Gulf Oasis.'

    Interesting discussion about floods. However, wasn't there a mountain in the Noah's Ark segment? I recall hearing that the Himalayas are still heaving/being pushed upwards but have no idea at what rate or inclination. But if such movement suddenly closes off a spillway for water, followed by years of monsoon rains nowhere to go, the combination probably wouldn't take too long to completely flood/drown anything below it. Add in some oversized macho engineering - maybe a dam - to exacerbate an already bad situation. Net result: the reverse of what happened to the Aral Sea. It took less than 50 years to drain off 40% of the Aral Sea's original size/volume.

    Found this article when I was reading up on that Lost Gulf Oasis. Has some interesting descriptions of how the flooding might have occurred - in stages and because of its particular location, depth, etc. - would not have affected the surrounding areas much. It would just sink/disappear from view.

    https://www.ancient-origins.net/human-origins-science/paradise-lost-gulf-oasis-was-home-earliest-humans-existed-africa-what-forced-021390

    852:

    Whitroth @ 820: RAID is NOT a substitute for backups.

    I don't know who tried to tell you it was, but it wasn't me. I wasn't even talking about RAIDs. I'm having to replace the "working" drive on my Photoshop editing computer. I'm installing three drives for increased capacity, but they're not going to even be RAID 0.

    I do have a RAID on my NAS, and I'm going to have to build another file server for my local copies of my "working" drive now that I'm enlarging it, but I was planning to do that anyway. My existing NAS has only slightly more capacity than the filled up drive on the Photoshop editing computer.

    I don't know what I'm going to do about backups. I doubt I'll go with the cloud, I'll die of old age before it all copied up there (unless I just quit using the internet for a week or so and dedicated all of my bandwidth to the upload).

    I used to have a fairly good (at least I thought it was good) scheme for backups. Copy everything to an external drive & take the drive over to my Mom's house when I visited her on Sundays ... I visited at other times, but always made sure to carry the backup drive whenever I went over there on Sunday. Bring the backup drive I left there on my last Sunday visit home with me.

    Mom died in 2014, and I haven't worked out a good scheme to replace that one. I know I should, but I get kind of down whenever I think about doing it.

    PS: All of the drives are installed and functioning. Everything is buttoned back up & working. I now have 10TB storage on my Photoshop editing computer.

    Bonus: While getting ready to install the rest of the drives, I ran across my old LaCie 250GB drive for Mac & my copy of MacDrive 8. The license for the software has already been used for the maximum number of computers it's allowed on, but it installed as a trial & that's good enough I can check that the LaCie drive still works. Support for MacDrive 8 ended in 2013, so they probably won't help me reset the serial number. The computers it was installed on are both defunct so I can't take them online to deactivate the software, freeing up the serial number.

    OTOH, a fresh copy of MacDrive 10 is only $50 & it will run on Windoze 7.

    853:

    and there aren't 46 million Americans running around believing the sort of nonsense that the linked article quoted

    Based on the number of people who should know better (seriously) who now ONLY watch/read Fox News, post the YouTube on facebook of someone in upper bumpkin Idaho of how the OSHA rules say wearing masks will make you sick and ......

    I'd say 5 to 10 million. And not be surprised at way more.

    As I said up post somewhere, I feel more and more like people I knew over the years have been taking over by pod people.

    And to tack onto the other discussion, some of these people measure crazy smart. And can't comprehend they might be wrong.

    854:

    Troutwaxer @ 827:

    "And over 100,000 years it ALWAYS changed at EXACTLY the average rate of 1 centimeter per year. By your metric it's no wonder your great flood of 1862 in California has been forgotten, because it could not have happened; water levels never change by more than 1 centimeter in a year."

    The Central Valley of California is not an ocean. The flood of 1862 was rain-induced flooding. If this doesn't seem possible to you, consult an atlas and consider what happens when a really big rainstorm can't get over the Sierra Nevada range, and it not only rains on the valley, but on the mountains on either side of the valley!

    You might be right about sea-level rise - I haven't researched that, but the Central Valley Flood had nothing to do with sea-level rise.

    Actually, it has nothing to do with anything other than insulting the schmuck who told me to Do the math to assert the ancient predecessors of the Mesopotamians would have never noticed the Persian Gulf filling up with water because it only happened at a "rate of 1 centimeter per year".

    855:

    However, wasn't there a mountain in the Noah's Ark segment?

    As the waters receded the ark landed on the mountains of Ararat. Which has led to a LOT of money poured into expeditions to find it sitting on top of one of the current mounts named such in Turkey. Fund raising with Christians and such. They can make many of the reality TV shows look well planned.

    There are multiple claims to have found "something". From pieces of wood to entire arks burried under snow and ice. But other than some nifty movies/videos used for fundraising for the next trip, nothing past that.

    Of course place names have never transliterated and been re-used over 6000 years either.

    856:

    As I said, drop me an email. Or a message via Meetup. We're going to be discussing NAS and backups and such in a week.

    Or tell me your handle on Meetup.

    857:

    It used to be New Ararat, after the city, which was named after the old god worshipped there, but he came from a couple hundred miles down south, where he lived in the ocean, but the ocean was named after hills where they found some statues in a cave, but after the first thousand years we just called it Ararat - I should use something similar in a story some time.

    858:

    So a) don't go there, and/or b) don't stare/look, which is the std. rule at every clothing-optional event/place I've ever been to. Overwhelmingly, they're not nude to be looked at, they're nude because they want to enjoy themselves, outside or inside, without being forced to wear clothes.

    I've certainly seen folks I wasn't interested in looking at.. BFD. I don't pay attention to them. I have no objection to them being nude.

    859:

    I can't see them running anyone but Pence.

    Thing is, Pence does not have the whacko contingent behind him. He was headed towards losing the governorship of Indiana, and he's, well, cold, and even the good old boys might find him a bit weird.

    860:

    Absolutely. For that matter, don't forget whee even the word "brandy" came from - brandywine - leave the wine out to freeze, and lift off the water ice.

    Was I young once? Yeah, though I wasn't that young very long. Stupid? Nope, never into the "here, hold my bee" mindset. Besides, I was too busy reading a book a day.....

    861:

    IIRC, there's already a USB-key computer.

    862:

    SFReader @ 851:

    Re: ' ... was a great flood similar to the one that is taking away our Garden of Eden, aka the "Persian Gulf Oasis.'

    Interesting discussion about floods. However, wasn't there a mountain in the Noah's Ark segment? I recall hearing that the Himalayas are still heaving/being pushed upwards but have no idea at what rate or inclination. But if such movement suddenly closes off a spillway for water, followed by years of monsoon rains nowhere to go, the combination probably wouldn't take too long to completely flood/drown anything below it. Add in some oversized macho engineering - maybe a dam - to exacerbate an already bad situation. Net result: the reverse of what happened to the Aral Sea. It took less than 50 years to drain off 40% of the Aral Sea's original size/volume.

    Found this article when I was reading up on that Lost Gulf Oasis. Has some interesting descriptions of how the flooding might have occurred - in stages and because of its particular location, depth, etc. - would not have affected the surrounding areas much. It would just sink/disappear from view.

    https://www.ancient-origins.net/human-origins-science/paradise-lost-gulf-oasis-was-home-earliest-humans-existed-africa-what-forced-021390

    There are a couple of things going on here. That "flood ... taking away our Garden of Eden" is what I imagine as the hypothetical voice of some predecessor of the ancient Mesopotanians trying to explain two things ... why the sea is filling in this great valley (that will someday be the Persian Gulf) and how all those sea shells got on top of Mount Ararat?

    I know why the sea filled the Persian Gulf - sea level rise due to meltwater pulses at the end of the last Glacial Maximum and how the sea shells got up there on the top of that mountain - "Plate Tectonics, Continental Drift, Subduction and Orogeny lifting former sea beds up to make mountains".

    Secondly, the floods are really a side issue some people have latched onto. What I'm interested in is how some myths might have started as oral traditions and what natural events witnessed by pre-literate people might have inspired those oral traditions in the first place.

    863:

    Unfortunately, I agree with you, it is his base. They've been so brainwashed most of their lives by the right that they have trouble seeing what's in front of their face.

    Look at it this way: the US has more guns in civilian hands than any country in the world: about 393 MILLION firearms. Of that... about 3% of ALL AMERICANS own about 133 MILLION of them, with the US population being around 328 million.

    So, that's about 9.1M people owning the huge number of guns. Figure at least two-thirds or three-quarters of them are "2nd Amendment Defenders", and most likely GOP base, so that's 6-7 million of his base being whackoes....

    864:

    Nope. Ignore mountains - they go up cm per what, 100kyrs?

    Myth, legend, and ancient passed-down stories accumulate a lot of baggage - synthesis. For example, Taliesin is the bard of both Arthur (late 5th cent CE) and Bran the Blessed (much earlier, maybe even pre-Roman, since there's no indication of Roman influences, at least as written down by Lady Guest.

    I don't think anyone here's going to argue about a human living for 900+ years. But without media, exactly how long has Elizabeth II been queen? 75 years? 350 years? Many, many lifetimes, right?

    Just like, I assume, "the big box we were floating in finally grounded on the bank that appeared from the waters" became "and the water was sooooo high, we came down on a mountain!!!"

    865:

    sigh

    Maybe it's me, but I assumed that "do the math" was satirical, on par with "study it out, sheeple!"

    866:

    whitroth @ 858: I've certainly seen folks I wasn't interested in looking at.. BFD. I don't pay attention to them. I have no objection to them being nude.

    I have no objection to them being nude. I just don't want them doing it where I might see them naked.

    Beauty is only skin deep, but UGLY goes all the way to the bone.

    I have a sensitive nature. It might scar my psyche for the rest of my life. And I'd rather not have to bleach my eyes to get those images out of them.

    867:

    whitroth @ 865: *sigh*

    Maybe it's me, but I assumed that "do the math" was satirical, on par with "study it out, sheeple!"

    No, it's simply a back-handed ad hominem insult. FWIW, I consider being called "sheeple" ad hominem as well.

    868:

    Actually, let me add this: the amount of acrimony, from regular, long-term posters has gotten very high lately. Now, it could be it's most of the way though June, and we're getting closer to the election that matters to the whole world, though as a lot of folks around th world (not just here) have complained they don't get to vote in it.

    Or all the demonstrations, or everything together. I know Ellen and I have been very low-energy and sleeping a lot lately, some of which is probably from the stress.

    Anyway, something I never thought I'd do here, but let me demonstrate how to deal with some of it....

    My cmt, a good ways up, about the Mediterranean basin filling as possibly being the source of the flood legend, was based on my looking up when it flooded in the nineties? Maybe eighties? Couldn't have been the seventies, could it? Anyway, back then, they were thinking the end of the last Ice Age had done it about 15kyrs or 12kyrs ago. I had not realized that the geological interpretation had changed that massively, thinking it was 100 times earlier.

    So, sorry.

    869:

    I can imagine mobsters doing that.

    Anyway nowadays, you cannot have a secure meeting anywhere if you are against any kind of actor that can fork a few 10000 €, the spy gear has become too good and is often surprisingly cheap.

    You can be spied on through the vibrations of your windows, the fluttering of your lamps, let's not speak of the many electronic IOT gear with laughable security.

    If you want to escape surveillance you have to go low tech at some point.

    870:

    The actual fact of the matter is that you stare at everyone for a few minutes, then nude people become the new normal and it no longer matters much.

    871:

    Based on the number of people who should know better (seriously) who now ONLY watch/read Fox News, post the YouTube on facebook of someone in upper bumpkin Idaho of how the OSHA rules say wearing masks will make you sick and ......

    I'd say 5 to 10 million. And not be surprised at way more.

    Fox News just had their best quarter ever - 3.4 million viewers https://www.forbes.com/sites/markjoyella/2020/03/31/fox-news-has-highest-rated-quarter-in-networks-history/#70063c494c0d

    Yes, Fox dwarfs MSNBC and CNN, but that isn't as big a deal as it sounds given how few people actually watch the news networks.

    As I said up post somewhere, I feel more and more like people I knew over the years have been taking over by pod people.

    Given everything that is going on, it is very easy to end up inflating the numbers just because you happen to perhaps have an unusual number of examples.

    Which isn't to say those members of the Trump base don't have problems, but there is still a big gulf between them (and some of the stuff they believe) and the true conspiracy nuts that the magazine article was quoting.

    872:

    Well these kind of assets are relativelly hard to move around, and keeping them on station for long time is quite expensive, if only in personnel.

    My main worry is how cheap and effective spying has become, if it's still expensive, there is a chance to go thru the cracks.

    The time Facebook paid to build a custom 0 day for a secure OS, it cost them 1 million, that's pocket change for them, less than a hanfull minutes of their revenue.

    873:

    I have no objection to them being nude. I just don't want them doing it where I might see them naked.

    Fair enough - but then don't go to a beach, a pool, or any number of sporting events where the "clothing" is a mere illusion given that it frequently is so thin and skin tight that it doesn't hide the body at all.

    874:

    Indeed Bolton is a very dangerous evil person. I despise him too, but he has however been neutralized lost power politically. And he's burned some bridges, sad. (narrator: not sad)

    My current US Rogues Gallery (reviewed every day) is DJT, DJT's cabinet members, and certain advisors. In rough decreasing evilness order, Stephen Miller, Bill Barr (more powerful though), Mike Pompeo, Chad Wolf, Pete Navarro and a few others. (And DJT himself. And other lists are of interest.)

    The international Rogues Gallery partially aligns with failed COVID-19 responses.

    875:

    Y'know, seems to me that it ought to be "Faux News" viewers vs "MSNBC AND CBS", at least, and maybe add in ABC.

    876:

    Enigma with USB would be kind of awesome. These days you could probably even get the mechanical side as actual machinery buy made out of high precision gears so it was barely big enough to use and very thin to boot.

    H & W: the problem is that neither of those is simple enough to audit, and the phone is definitely out because it by necessity contains circuitry that you not only can't audit, you're not allowed to control. So you end up trying to write a secure layer that can run on an insecure system. If you can do that you don't need to bother with a secure hardware device at all, you could run it in the cloud and connect to it from wherever you want.

    To be at all secure IMO you need to start with the simplest possible system that can do the encryption computations in a plausible time. If you can make that out of 74 series logic chips all the better (you can't, it's too slow). One alternative would be a clean FPGA (one without a CPU) that you load off ROM on every boot. ROM so that like the hardware you can audit the software...

    877:

    Ok, at this point, I have to ask: you did read that as me quoting the line a right-wing nutjob who has just given a totally insance conspiracy theory finishes it with, right?

    878:

    but there is still a big gulf between them (and some of the stuff they believe) and the true conspiracy nuts that the magazine article was quoting.

    Not as much as you'd like to think. In my work I run into both ends of the spectrum. I stand by my estimates.

    And yes, I could be wrong.

    So I must not be the smartest guy in the room. :)

    879:

    Actually, a steampunk electromechanical calculator might be just the ticket. It has an obvious use other than the obvious use, it's cool enough to sell enough to cover the cost, and you don't have to tell people what it can do. So any adversary is left trying to prove that you know something about a cool toy that a lot of other people have.

    I'm thinking of the inevitable discussion with customs, for example. "cool toy bro" is much easier than "oh this weird electronic thing that I made myself? It's, uh, a central heating controller that I'm working on" ... "that's odd, sir, it looks identical to the drone programmer dongle we confiscated yesterday".

    880:

    Certainly nothing to apologize for.

    I'm happy, because now that I had to look up the Messinian Salinity Crisis again. Turns out that it's been used in more books than I knew about (reading Gandalara now), and thinking about using something similar in an exoplanet setting. So your miss has had far more positive consequences for me than not.

    Thanks for making that mistake.

    881:

    seems to me that it ought to be "Faux News" viewers vs "MSNBC AND CBS",

    When my friends on the left side of things send me an MSNBC (or others) link with a "wow look at this" and I dig into it I find exaggerations and mistakes all over. Just not as bad as Fox.

    I watch bits of them all with my fast forward button nearby. Well not Fox but I do look at their web site at times to see how they cover something or the other.

    882:

    And you don't think one of the first 10 buyers wouldn't post a YouTube video of it being disassembled with emphasis on things that don't make sense?

    883:

    Now for something different.

    What do the Europeans in the room think of Eugen Weber?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugen_Weber

    Non Europeans can also answer. :)

    884:

    Secondly, the floods are really a side issue some people have latched onto. What I'm interested in is how some myths might have started as oral traditions and what natural events witnessed by pre-literate people might have inspired those oral traditions in the first place.

    Yeah, I was into that 20 years ago or so. There's a whole 90s pagan subculture thing about how myths (especially English myths) are survivals from a preliterate age...and it turns out, mostly, they're not. Go read some of Ronald Hutton's work on the history of paganism. It helps.

    The other thing is I've written two books on deep time, so I'm more sensitive than most to how badly most people screw up their time estimates. And as I've demonstrated with you, unapologetically on my part, people get ludicrously angry when it gets pointed out to them. You're not the first. Greg Tingey got furious back in 2016 or so when I pointed out similar flaws in his time sense.

    If you want to start to understand why I'm messing with you, start reading more recent archaeology books. For example, find some of the more accessible books by Kristian Kristiansen and read up on the Atlantic Bronze Age. I strongly suspect it's not going to look anything like what you think you know about western European history. For one thing, you may not realize that almost the entire Bible is an iron age document. There's a whole millennium of religious thinking that predates it, when the Greeks had a sun goddess and apparently the Gemini were the ruling twin gods. If oral history survived as modern myths, where did those stories go? They were all over Europe 3000 years ago or so, if you believe the artwork.

    And if the Bronze Age, that pivotal 1,500-odd years of European history, has dropped out of modern myth and legend, what about the 7,000 or so years of the neolithic before it? Or the 290,000 years of human history before we even go to the European neolithic? Most of our history as a species is absolutely gone, save for scattered artifacts and a few bones. Anyone who blithely claims that their modern myth is based on an ancient oral history really needs to show some scholarship to back up their assertion.

    And you're busy getting angry and telling me I'm clueless about it all. My solution, inelegant as it is, is to dunk you in that ocean of deep time repeatedly until you pay attention. And part of that, very definitely, is getting you to do the math before you tell me that sea level rises over 5000 years are the basis for a story that it rained 40 days and 40 nights, when a damned month-long rain happened in Sacramento 138 years ago and oceangoing ships sailed through the Sacramento Valley rescuing people.

    885:

    My point was that everything would make sense. In a steampunk kind of way...

    "this dial is for the exponent, and this one is for fixed decimals, and this little doohickey sets degrees/radians/grads" and so on. Until you actually open it up and discover that the default OS has a special mode accessed by ... I dunno... setting a particular dial combo then powering it up while holding a button down... you're just never going to know

    886:

    Also, if that's user configurable to some extent (edit the source, build the firmware) then proving that a given device even has that option will be fun, and either way proving that a given owner has actually used it that way even more fun.

    The goal is to avoid the $5 hammer approach to decryption by being unremarkable.

    887:

    I've written two books on deep time

    Which reminds me, I should read the other one :)

    Wow, Kobo have made just logging in to their website a bit ugly. It's "sign in with Walmart" or a giant list where they're not at the top. Must be that whole "facebook is the internet" thing.

    888:

    Moz Problem with freeze-"distillation". It also concentrates the longer-chaon "ols" & naties that you don't want to imbibe...

    David L & mdive The "pod people" discussion about DT's insane base reminds me of a nasty precedent ... the people who actually believed Mein Kampf was true & followed their charismatic leader.

    whitroth @ 868 It's also the effects of the lockdown & partial confinement & not meeting actual people. Even for screen junkies like us. We are a social species.

    David L Never heard of Eugen Weber - had to look him up. Appears to be almost as wrong as Fuikyama ......

    Heteromeles almost the entire Bible is an iron age document But based on Bronze-Age myths .....

    889:

    Greg, I actually said "The still is for fractional distillation that gets the water, methanol and "gunk" out, then once you have hydrated ethanol you start the freeze cycles".

    So by the time they start freezing there shouldn't be much left that's more poisonous than ethanol. Does that make it clearer?

    890:

    And if the Bronze Age, that pivotal 1,500-odd years of European history, has dropped out of modern myth and legend, ...

    Firstly, it hasn't, not by a long way. It lasted until well after the establishment of writing in the west, and essentially up to the era of Greek literature. We still have a lot of those myths and legends, and can often trace them back further. The siege of Troy being a classic example.

    Secondly, I have seen respectable theories that at least some of British legends date from that era. The truth is that we simply don't have a clue how ancient most of them are.

    891:

    I omitted a section on the grounds of tact and, on rereading, realise that it was a mistake to do so. I am sorry to have to have to go to ad hominem, but can't see an alternative.

    Your first error of logic is assuming that a 'generally accepted' plausible hypothesis is reliably certain - that's a VERY common failing with far too many scientists (e.g. most of cosmology). The simple fact is that, in most of these cases, there are a great many out-of-favour hypotheses that are equally plausible - and one of them might be right.

    Your condemnation of the 'swamp ape' theory is a classic example. I checked up and, as I had said was almost certain, there has been NO archaeological research under Lake Bangweulu, in contradiction to your assertions. But that's probably not where it would have happened (if it did!), because they have found some evidence in the Okavango area (the other one I think I referred to). But I am STILL not saying that the 'swamp ape' is right - merely that it conflicts less with known facts than the 'savanna ape' one.

    The ark myth in Genesis could perfectly well have arisen from the flooding of the rivers, flooding due to rising sea levels, something else entirely, or simply invented from whole cloth. What evidence do we have to distinguish those? None.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/28/world/human-origins-botswana-scn-trnd/index.html

    Your second error of logic is to assume that, because a theory is not wholly right, it is necessarily wholly wrong. The myths example is a classic of this. Yes, I know that most British myths and legends were imported within historical times (especially the Arthurian cycle), but there are others that we don't know where or when they started. We simply don't know.

    892:

    I don't understand what the first line is referring to!

    893:

    I despise him too, but he has however been neutralized lost power politically. And he's burned some bridges, sad. (narrator: not sad)

    I wouldn't count him out.

    It may appear that he has burned some bridges, but that is only if one assumes Trump and his minions retain power and influence.

    If Trump gets removed from office in November there will be a lot of finger pointing and other manoeuvring in the GOP as assorted factions attempt to take control going forward. There will be a lot of people suddenly admitting that the emperor had no clothes, and Bolton could be turned into a hero for being one who was willing to "tell the truth" despite the personal cost.

    894:

    To put it another way, Bolton has been lucky - Covid-19 has exposed Trump (and Boris and others) to be the buffoons that they truly are and those potentially not just harm their immediate political fortunes, but harm anyone in the wings hoping to keep their philosophy going as a movement.

    895:

    I tear my hair out at the folks who think RAID means they don't have to back up any data they regard as valuable to other media and preferably offsite.

    Yep, just one RAID array is never enough, even with striping/mirroring for redundancy.

    896:

    Nothing wrong with nudist places (or, for that matter, clothing optional beaches, such as Playalinda National Seashore (past parking area 13, across the Indian River from KSC, and Pad 39).

    I don't honestly think it qualifies as a nudist beach if you have to smear on so much DEET that synthetic fabrics and spectacle frames melt on contact with your skin.

    (That part of the world is about the most bitey-insect-ridden place I've ever set foot, including the Scottish Highlands during the summer midge season.)

    897:

    And then there's the other decryption method: you're tied to a chair, and they've got brass knuckles.

    Not even that: they've got you sitting in a Police interrogation room and there's a prosecutor threatening you with a mandatory 2-10 year prison sentence for failure to decrypt encrypted media in response to a court warrant.

    This has happened, several times (such laws are particularly good for jailing autistic and other non-neurotypical techies who think they can out-lawyer the lawyers: not so effective against actual suicide-belt-wearing/AR-15-shooting terrorists of the "you'll never take me alive!!!" persuasion).

    898:

    You need to visit some of the places near and north of the US Canadian border out in the midwest. There they should give weather forecasts in the summer that gives visibility due to insects.

    Plus some of the flies can take chunks out of your skin that qualifies more as a divot than a bite.

    And that's how you know a TRUE hunter. They go into that environment in order to shot things.

    899:

    If you read the Old Testament with a critical eye, you'll find that tribal racism is at the heart of most of it. ... It really does instruct the Israelites to "Kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out"

    Kinda-sorta.

    That's how it works at first, until the foundation of the Kingdom of Israel and for a couple of generations thereafter.

    Then it all goes sideways for values of "oops, why, oh Lord, did you tell us it would be a really good idea to stake out a kingdom at the crossroads of any empire from the Southern Med (Carthage), Northern Med (Rome, Greece), Asia Minor, and parts South (Egypt/Sudan) or East (Babylon/Persia/etc) who pull their marching sandals on and go seeking new lands to conquer?" Followed by a series of trials, tribulations, exiles, judges, prophets, rebellions, and Roman empires raining seven shades of hell on the area.

    If I was playing a god game like Civ, I wouldn't choose quite such a popular and indefensible strip of coastline to farm my chosen people on. Just saying.

    900:

    Most SF in space uses previous models for space ships, the British Navy being a favorite one. Meanwhile, actual space exploration has gotten interestingly different from any historical model.

    Yeah, I think I did a talk about that at the DARPA 100 year starship conference (and posted it here a decade or so ago): my main point was that the word "ship" instantly comes with a whole bunch of semiotic baggage which is then overloaded by the "star-" prefix and gives us a disastrously skewed set of preconceptions.

    The reality is that aviation (both civil and military) took a while to diverge from nautical/shipping ways of thinking[*], but spacecraft are drastically different from the get-go and the conventional approaches to even framing the deliverables and goals are inappropriate.

    [*] Example: aviation, initially military, copied some roles "pilot" and "captain", from naval hierarchies. These then got taken up by civil aviation and resulted in a disastrously bad culture for crew resource management (CRM) which led to several serious airliner disasters before airlines began to prioritize teamwork and checklists over "the captain's word is law".

    901:

    Yesterday Bolton announced that he was voting for Biden. This is a very big deal because Bolton doesn't just work for himself. He represents a whole group of Neocons with a certain amount of political power - if you want to understand how big this is, imagine a well-known and influential Tory crossing the aisle.

    902:

    mdive In the USA perhaps. Here, there are still vast numbers who haven't twigged to BoZo being a consistent liar & who still believe that a No Deal brexit is to their advantage, without, of course, being abke to soecify how. Numerous repeated warnings today about medical supplies & food shortages if a deal is not arrived at, which are still being dismissed as "Sour Grapes Remoaner propaganda". If BoZo runs to form, he will try to back out of it at the very last minute ( Last week of November or first week of December ) - but the EU will say - "You HAD your chance, youi were warned, why should we give you any more time?" Oh shit.

    903:

    Firstly, it hasn't, not by a long way. It lasted until well after the establishment of writing in the west, and essentially up to the era of Greek literature. We still have a lot of those myths and legends, and can often trace them back further. The siege of Troy being a classic example.

    No, we don't. Troy was indeed a Bronze age city (known to the Hittites as Wilusa), but the Homer who was written down was an iron age bard. The question of how historical the Iliad is has been fought for over a century (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historicity_of_the_Homeric_epics). At best, the Iliad separated from the Iron Age by centuries of Dark Ages when writing was lost, and it's used as a classic written example of a purely oral text. There's a long list of details that bronze age archaeology has verified that Homer got wrong. It's not even clear to archaeologists which of the several battles in the Troy site was the Trojan War.

    Yes, there was writing in the bronze age, but not in the Atlantic Bronze Age. That's the part I'm pressing you on, when you claim that oral myths in Britain goes back to the neolithic. If said oral history is missing the bronze age in Britain, how on earth did it successfully preserve things that happened centuries before that, like what sites like Stonehenge were actually used for?

    As for the history of the European Bronze age (including the Atlantic and other cultural phases): do you know the names of anyone who lived in Britain during the Bronze age? Or the Egyptians' "Sea Peoples"? The people who built the nuraghes? Or the tribes of anyone living on the Iberian peninsula, France, or Scandinavia during the period of the Atlantic Bronze Age? Those are the myths you blithely want connection to. What do those myths say, that's been confirmed by archaeology?

    Speaking of writing, what did the Minoans call themselves? They were literate, in Linear A. Linear A is written with the same characters as Linear B, which was used to write Greek. Problem is, when you use Linear B to translate Linear A, you get gibberish. Why did the Mycenaeans redo the characters they obviously swiped from the Minoans, whoever they actually were?

    904:

    You could do that. Or you could just get yourself a second-hand Wifi-only Gemini PDA. (The wifi-only model didn't prove popular so was discontinued but they're still available on ebay, etc.) Runs Android 8.1, boot loader is open enough you can install other Android-based distros on it (or a rather crappy Debian-based Linux environment), can cope with USB-C thumb drives. The only thing is, it's a bit of an odd device (if the cops are searching you for incriminating evidence you'd better have a whole shitpile of obscure/obsolete computing hardware to lose it in, or it'll stick out like a sore thumb).

    905:

    It just might be possible to read The Bible as a series of attempts by God to teach the Jews to think independently, plus a record of the successes and failures... just saying.

    907:

    Old news.

    He tweets something along these lines every week or more.

    One of the problems of cross pond news reading. We tend to only get summaries of the summaries.

    908:

    Here, there are still vast numbers who haven't twigged to BoZo being a consistent liar & who still believe that a No Deal brexit is to their advantage, without, of course, being abke to soecify how.

    I wasn't referring to the public, rather the party people and others in politics.

    To that end the number of stories about Boris and the concerns of MPs shows that his invincibility, strengthened by his massive election win, is in trouble.

    To be still, weeks after his stint in hospital, getting media stories about unrest in the Conservative Party ranks and open questioning about whether he will remain leader for the governments full term is a problem for a PM who not 6 months ago delivered an election result few would have hoped for.

    So we see with Trump, who is looking increasingly weak and that works into the calculations of the all important Senators as well as many others around capital hill and in the GOP as to how much they need to defer to him and his (possibly shrinking) base.

    909:

    This is getting ridiculous. The issue is not, repeat NOT that such stories are either contemporaneous or reliable history, but whether there was a basis in bronze age legends. It is YOU who stated explicitly that there was none (quoting you): "And if the Bronze Age, that pivotal 1,500-odd years of European history, has dropped out of modern myth and legend,

    You are also inventing straw men. You assert that I said (again quoting you): "oral myths in Britain goes back to the neolithic." I did not. Go back, reread what I posted, and you should realise at least some of your errors. I have been stating that we don't know that is false, and you have not provided any decent evidence that it is. I am not accusing you of deliberately misrepresenting me, but I am at a loss to understand how you can have become so deluded.

    Lastly, are you seriously claiming that, because a legend has lost all associated names, it ceases to be a legend? Because, if so, you have lost your marbles.

    910:

    DT readying/positioning himself to refuse to accept any unfavourable election result Could be very messy indeed.

    As noted by David L, old news - some will recall he kept making the same claims in 2016 if he ended up losing to Hillary.

    The most interesting thing about the last 48 hours (and thus perhaps the most dangerous) is that Trump hasn't reacted on Twitter to his disastrous rally - not even to blame a non-existent left-wing protest preventing people from getting in.

    But, at this point even Trump must be aware his campaign is in trouble - it is easy to dismiss poll results you don't like, its harder to ignore a half empty arena.

    So, perhaps the next 2 months are the most dangerous of the Trump presidency. He needs to do something soon-ish to change the trajectory of the election, to distract the public from the surging Covid numbers in the early-opening south (and even some of the early reports out of Germany don't bode well)

    Leaving action until September/October makes it obvious, and thus not only less effective but potentially damaging.

    So July/August for an invasion?

    911:

    Apparently, if the story is juicy enough, it can survive a looong time (or it may be mere coincidence and clicbait) :

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2378-6

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/17/science/irish-archaeology-incest-tomb.html

    912:

    There's a subset of Pagans who go on about how Paganism is based on stuff passed down.

    Then there's the rest of us who said, "riiiiiight, and I have a bridge for sale".

    Gardiner and Valiente around 1940. However, there were older witches in the UK who were already a large community, trying to weatherwork during the Battle of Britain.

    Interestingly enough, a lot of what was "passed down" was, in fact, from the last New Age Revival... in the 1870s.

    913:

    ssh and kerberos. They work just fine.

    Quick: point me to some stories where they were broken, without state actor resources.

    914:

    Go back and reread what I said :-)

    The claims for the superiority of trusted third-party systems like Kerberos and SSL were that they solved the key distribution system of systems like SSH. Well, in your last paragraph, you hint at why that is bollocks - their security relies on the authentication server being secure and not being run by a hostile entity.

    I could give you a great deal of information of why and how Kerberos is broken, including from personal experience, but that's orthogonal to my point.

    915:

    mdive Factual comment in last week's FT about BoZo - form a journo ( S Sands ) who worked with him at the torygraph: "As soon as Boris was given instructions, he became shifty"

    I realise that DT is repeating himself but/& this is a new allegation, AFAIK.

    July/August for a gradual coup? - How does one rig a Reichstag Fire in the USA? More to the point, how do you get the emregency decrees & Enablinbg Law through?

    916:

    Playalinda's not that bad. Basic application is fine, you don't need that much (even if the original name of the Indian River was Mosquito Lagoon).

    However, you should watch out for jellyfish in the water....

    917:

    I have never tried to play Risk by conquering Asia and using it as my base....

    918:

    'Bout 12 years ago, a friend of mine in the Chicago area would have had no trouble.

    Did I mention his circa-1990's IBM RISC-6000? Two of them?

    919:

    Sometimes the most important thing you can tell an opponent is that you're trying to communicate with unbreakable encryption.

    920:

    Right. If anything DID survive from pre-history, it would be in the form of garbled myths and traditions, as I said in #793. The trouble is that it's very hard to either prove a negative or identify where such things originate, not least because they were very sporadically recorded until recently. Legends of 'little people' (in the pixy/hobgoblin/house elf sense) and associated superstitions are widespread in northern Europe, and have been claimed to refer to peoples disposessed by early invaders, but there's damn-all evidence.

    All we can really say is that we don't know.

    921:

    Which requires a known and trusted server, to prevent man-in-the-middle attacks.

    If you have no trusted server, you're so far underwater that you're looking up at the ruins of Atlantis.

    922:

    Not sure about that: tradition is that the last half of July and all of August, when Congress and the state legislatures are on recess, is silly season time in the media, look for discoveries of Bigfoot, UFOs, etc.

    A Sept or Oct Surprise is more traditional, and gives them more time to set it up.

    Of course, "preparation" and dealing with everything is not exactly the Hairball's strong suite.

    923:

    I realise that DT is repeating himself but/& this is a new allegation, AFAIK.

    In a longer form of what I said earlier. There are DAYS where DT will tweet out 20 or 30 times. 10 of those being WE MUST STOP THIS BECAUSE IT WILL DESTROY THE NATION. (or I'm an idiot and trying to stir the post to keep everyone distracted)

    Seriously this is what those of us here daily on the news. Except all but FOX is getting so tired of it they are skipping over most of it. And even FOX is getting tired of it.

    His entire point is to keep yelling about some nonsense, which at some level has to be covered be cause he IS the President, to distract from the real things he and his are doing.

    924:

    Oh, yeah. If his R's sycophants contradict him they get clobbered with more tweets.

    925:

    A simpler explanation for the Good Folk is simply that they're spirits, literally meaning the feeling you get when a house is feels like home, as opposed to an empty structure. Korean shamanism, to pick one surviving tradition, has a whole long list of house spirits. If a family is having one of those years where everybody's getting sick and nothing is going quite right, then the shamans throw a ritual for all the house (and other) spirits and try to make them happy again.

    Even disregarding lack of knowledge of a germ theory of disease (which is one classic explanation for spirits), people can get into believing too much in their own bad luck, so getting them out of that funk with a ritual party might do some good. Whether it's cost effective is another matter, something Koreans in the US do complain about today (thousands of dollars to exorcise the house??? Cheaper to go to church).

    926:

    There's a subset of Pagans who go on about how Paganism is based on stuff passed down.

    IIRC, Ronald Hutton's A Triumph of the Moon has a pretty good history of the development of modern paganism, including the story about Gardiner and Valiente. I get the impression you read it too?

    The bigger thing about the "old myths passed down" obsession is that it keeps people from looking at what the archaeologists are digging up. That's kind of the point about pushing certain people towards the Atlantic Bronze Age: if you're spending all your effort trying to prove the historicity of Atlantis, elves, or ancient matriarchies, you miss some really cool WTF moments from learning about things like the chronology of all those stone structures (standing stones, nuraghes), or what the distribution of bronze and other artifacts tells us about how the different communities communicated with each other, or just how functionally weird Knossos was as a structure.

    And those who don't read books like Walter Ong's Literacy and Orality really miss some really nice points about how stories and literature work, too.

    927:

    "Exorcise the house?" Hmmm ... I wonder what doing that for Hermitage Castle might cost!

    928:

    That was magical thinking; Bolton said he's not voting for either one.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/21/politics/john-bolton-joe-biden-2020-trump/index.html

    [ "(CNN)Former national security adviser John Bolton said he will not be voting for his former boss President Donald Trump or the presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden in this year's election.

    "I don't think he's fit for office," Bolton said of Trump in an interview with ABC News that aired Sunday. "I don't think he has the competence to carry out the job. I don't think he's a conservative Republican." "I'm not gonna vote for him in November. Certainly not gonna vote for Joe Biden either," he added. Instead, Bolton told ABC he will "figure out a conservative Republican to write in." ]

    These Bolton types don't ever count themselves out, so nobody else should either, ever, unless one oneself pushed the silver dagger into their hearts, cut off their heads, and then consigned it all to the flames for hours.

    929:

    Btw, for those of you on that side of the Pond, esp., I think, Greg, so what do you think of Smithwick's? I consider it a rather decent beer....

    930:

    Heh. A Tradition (#insert appropriate song) in Judaism that esp. the Orthodox and ultraOrthodox do is an annual week-long housecleaning. I've a friend who literally sets up a large tent in his back yard. They throw out food, clean, etc.

    Definitely a health thing, esp back in Days of Yore.

    931:

    sigh Antiwar demonstration, 1967. The military kept us from completely encircling the Pentagon, otherwise, we were going to levitate it a bit off the ground....

    932:

    Eh? We both run SSH, set up well-chosen keys (assume 16M bits), and write them to USBs. I meet you to feed the ducks, and we pass each other our SSH public keys. If you get a message that decrypts with my public key, you know that one of the following has happened:

    A) your system has been hacked, or B) my system has been hacked, or C) they have finally got quantum cryptanalysis working.

    The whole point about SSH is that it doesn't need any other trusted server. You can get man-in-the-middle deprivation of service, but not spoofing attacks.

    Exactly the same applies if we generate one-time pads and pass those over when feeding the ducks.

    933:

    That is also possible, though it's only simpler when accounting for lares and penates, rather than the 'little people', who were NOT always specifically associated with houses. But we simply don't know, nor do we know in even which millennium the myth originated.

    934:

    Most of the spirits I've run into are out in nature. One example of many are the vortices around Sedona, AZ. I certainly feel them, my partner doesn't. What do they mean? Big ol' shrug.

    Actually, more to the point, perceptions like mine are the basis of animism. In my limited experience, my kind of experience seems to be more common than the more profound mystical experiences that lead people to believe in universal divine figures. At least without drugs. But I think the basic, good point is that people experience the world differently. We do a bit of violence when we either insist that everyone must recognize all the spirits, one spirit, or no spirit, because different people do experience these differently.

    936:

    Yeah, well, that's the theory.

    And then we get papers saying "If you have PILES of money, you can precompute most of a DH exchange of you know the host-keys..."

    https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2015/10/breaking_diffie.html

    937:

    Ah, I see you read Bruce's page, too.

    However, note that report's from 2015. The successful attacks were against the old 512 byte key, and state actors could go after (eventually) the 1024 bit key. I don't remember, when I was working, if we went to 2048 bit keys, or to another algorithm.

    938:

    Just looked at my own system (CentOS 7), and the choices are RSA, ecdsa, or ed25519.

    Not using Diffie-Hellman any more.

    939:

    "However, note that report's from 2015."

    So this is the fatal fallacy people do when they think about NSA.

    You don't think they've been at work since 2015 ?

    Have you ever sat down and thought about what you would do if you had a couple of billion dollars to fight encryption ?

    I have: https://archive.fosdem.org/2014/schedule/event/nsa_operation_orchestra/

    940:

    Have you ever sat down and thought about what you would do if you had a couple of billion dollars to fight encryption ?

    Find kids with perfect SAT scores who want to go to MIT or similar. Offer them a full ride in exchange for 3 years of work.

    941:

    Re: 'There are DAYS where DT will tweet out 20 or 30 times.'

    Haven't read all of the comments yet, so apologies if this is a repeat. Anyways, the Twit-in-Chief tweets far more often than you mention up top. His record is 200+ tweets in one day just this month (June 5, 2020). Really weird times when Wikipedia has a long entry on a single individual's social media addiction.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_on_social_media#Rate_of_tweets

    'After winning the election, Trump said in a November 12, 2016 television interview that, as president, his use of social media would be "very restrained, if I use it at all."[29] He did reduce his number of tweets during his early time in office, but he gradually increased his use of Twitter. By the first half of 2019, he was tweeting as frequently as he had done during his candidacy; he then doubled this rate during the second half of 2019 and the first half of 2020. His most prolific day was June 5, 2020, when he tweeted 200 times.[30]'

    Haven't read the entire entry yet but am curious whether they included 'higher number of tweets per day shows strong positive correlation with stock market volatility'. I really wonder if his kids are gaming the market through him -- supposedly, they're the only people he trusts and listens to.)

    942:

    July/August for a gradual coup? - How does one rig a Reichstag Fire in the USA? More to the point, how do you get the emregency decrees & Enablinbg Law through?

    While perhaps an interesting though experiment, the DT White House (in fairness, seemingly like many recent administrations) leaks to the press far too much for any such thing to be planned in secret.

    Perhaps more importantly, as recent events have shown Trump doesn't have the loyalty of the military or 5 Supreme Court Justices.

    Hence the invasion option, to try and both distract the US public from the Covid fire raging through much of the US and to make DT a wartime President so the public can rally behind him and the flag.

    It to a certain extent depends on his campaign team - if they can come back from the recent disaster and get some successful campaign events in the next couple of week it may reduce the pressure (depending on if his poll numbers bounce with some success).

    But if the poll numbers don't reverse, then DT isn't going to be happy, and that generally can't be good.

    943:

    Have you ever sat down and thought about what you would do if you had a couple of billion dollars to fight encryption ?

    Yes: I'd start by trying to crack Bitcoin.

    At its peak valuation the Bitcoin market was worth something north of $10Bn. It's never been under $1Bn in the past five years. So dropping $1Bn on an Engine for Cracking Bitcoin (EBC) is the sort of bankable profit-making venture you could expect a bunch of shady private equity folks to get behind.

    This tells us something about the solidity of BtC: it's cheaper and easier to make money from it by building bitcoin mining farms or running exchanges and bilking the gullible than by actually cracking the Sakamoto Wallet. (And "cheaper" and "easier" are relative terms in this context.)

    Iterate for other crypto targets: how readily monetizable are they, and what's the likely profit margin? This gives you a floor for how much it's reasonable to expect a brute force hack to cost.

    944:

    whitroth Smithwicks is wholly owned by Gwines ("Guiness") & therefore, it's liquid shit.

    945:

    Sigh. I thought that everybody knew that factorising large numbers (need to break SSH) is effectively exponential in the number of bits - at least until someone gets quantum cryptanalysis working or makes a world-shattering mathematical breakthrough. In #932, I said "assume 16M bits" for a reason, you know, though I suppose that I should have added a "world-shattering mathematical breakthrough" as a fourth possibility.

    If you think that a mere thousand trillion dollars (let's not pinch pennies) would get ANYWHERE with that problem, you don't begin to understand it.

    946:

    On the other hand, all the smartest people in the world do not, surprisingly, work for them... and the cryptographic community has not been just sitting there. IIRC, the ED25519 just started showing up in Linux around '18.

    The NSA are not infallible.

    947:

    The NSA is probably the entity be hi d Bitcoin. Think about whether the public narrative of bit coin makes any sense.

    Some person on the internet that has a distrust of government and the banking system creates a crypto currency called Bitcoin to create a medium of exchange free banks and beyond control of governments. This system is based in a "blockchain" algorithm whereby the current block is hashed with a secure one way hash algorithm. The viability of the algorithm DEPENDS upon robustness of the hash algorithm and the inability to find a particular primate for some given hash.

    So what algorithm does out government fearing champion of economic freedom choose? He chooses SHA256. An algorithm created by the NSA.

    I see two possible reasons for this. 1) he KNOWS SHA256 is a good choice for a hash because he works closely with it in his day job, at the NSA. He might be doing it on their behalf, or it could be a side project that Hes doing in secret, but he knows the NSA cant break SHA256 and therefore its a reasonable assumption that no one else can either.

    2) he KNOWS SHA256 is a bad choice. Because he knows how to break it. Probably because he works at the NSA. Maybe its a way to get off the books money for black ops without congressional funding. Maybe its a personal project and its all about that 10 million Bitcoin he kept for himself. But he knows that there's a flaw, quite possibly because the SHA256 algorithm was deliberately written with one built in.

    3) tho whole project isnt about Bitcoin or even money at all. Its about something else. Maybe the block chain is useful for something else. Maybe they found a flaw in SHA256 that will allow you to crack hashes if you get a big enough table of hashes of data of a particular form. Maybe the whole idea is, creation of said table is impractical by conventional means. Perhaps the idea is, you can monetize it somehow, the people will build massive hashing farms and throw vast amounts of money at it generating publicly available list of it all called the "block chain" Perhaps the block chain is not a tool to help you generate and exchange BitCoin. Perhaps for so.e reason known only to the creator of Bitcoin, the block chain is the desired ens result. The end result of year after year of relentless calculations of a scale even large governmental organizations found never hope to afford.

    948:

    [rolls eyes] Some day, if I make Big Bucks as an Author, we'll come over, and try some of what you suggest. Otherwise, feel free to come over here, and I'll offer the cheap bheer I normally buy (Dundee Honey Brown). If you haven't tried it, please do, and let me know.

    Can't get Goose Island Hexnut Brown Ale since fucking Bud bought 20% of the brewery.

    Meanwhile, anything not crap is twice the price is should be ($10 USD and up, a lot, for a fucking 6-pack.

    949:

    whitroth @ 877: Ok, at this point, I have to ask: you *did* read that as me quoting the line a right-wing nutjob who has just given a totally insance conspiracy theory finishes it with, right?

    Oh yeah. I knew you were quoting an example of "satire". I just don't accept that calling someone "sheeple" IS satire.

    There appears to be a common ploy by assholes on the far right & their apologists, that when called out for their hateful ad hominem attacks, they insist after the fact that they were ONLY JOKING.

    I don't accept that.

    950:

    Btw, Greg - remember when the lockdowns started, and assholes here emptied the stupormarkets, buying five years worth of supplies, and I said, "We're the US! We overreact more than anyone in the history of the world!!!"

    One thing I have to deal with here is some of the idiot microbreweries: "you like hops! We've got double the hops!" "No, they're no good, we've got triple the hops" "No, no, we've got FOUR TIMES the hops!!!"

    I may be exaggerating about four, but I'm sure I've seen three.

    Oh, and Smithwicks runs about $9.59/six pack; as does Becks, and some are up to $10, $11, and over $12 USD for a sixpack.

    951:

    To preempt someone who will correct my 'effectively exponential', I should point out that it is technically only super-polynomial and that factorising a 16m bit number is only something like 10^500 times beyond the current state of the art.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integer_factorization#Difficulty_and_complexity

    952:

    Scotland has such things, too, in its whisky.

    https://www.bruichladdich.com/octomore-super-heavily-peated-whisky-range/

    I have tried it. So, probably, has OGH.

    953:

    David L @ 883: Now for something different.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugen_Weber

    Non Europeans can also answer. :)

    I hope his writing is not as dense as Hannah Arendt's. I had to renew The Origins of Toltarianism from the Wake County Public Library something like four times while I was trudging through it.

    But trudge through it I did, and I think I understood at least half of what she wrote.

    954:

    Yeah, otherwise known as "why I don't drink San Diego IPAs. I used to like the stuff more than I do, but that whole "double the hops. No, double it again" shtick got as old as ironic beards.

    955:

    There's an Atlantic article on Trump rally attendees. Be afraid. Be very afraid.

    Can you link to it?

    All I found is this: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/06/trump-tulsa-rally/613273/

    and it mostly talks about people who DID NOT attend

    956:

    [g] I tried Lagunitas once. LOVE the commercials "from the kitchen table, to drinkable, chased out by the neighbors, finally getting it in bottles...." but I was not impressed.

    Ellen likes Becks, at least some of the time, or Guiness (sorry, Greg). We'll both drink the Honey Brown. I was REALLY pissed when I think it was Bud, again, who bought part of Dundee, and they stopped their mixed half-cases, with English Ale, and porter.... I'll get Smithwicks (we don't care for the Killians, which is about a buck, buck and a half cheaper/sixpack), or if I'm doing chili or last year, and hopefully this Labor Day, I'll do Texas bbq brisket, and get Shiner Bock (which is, in fact, still brewed in Shiner, TX).

    957:

    crypto targets: how readily monetizable are they

    The big issue is getting your money out. Bitcoin leads the way in being absolutely traceable by design. Some of the early pushback was on that exact point, and there are anon-coins around if you feel lucky. Their value is typically under $100M each.

    To get something other than bitcoins you need an exchange. Those swap between cryptocurrencies as well as between those and real currencies. But as a result exchanges tend towards the "strong proof of identity" end of the spectrum - many will only allow corporate accounts if a meat puppet vouches for them, for example.

    So... you swipe a million bitcoin. Yay! Exciting! Everyone runs round in circles saying "but gosh how could this happen" and looking into everything they can think of. A whole lot of people watch very intently where those bitcoins go, because that's the entire point of the blockchain. Sure, if you have 1 bitcoin, or even 10 bitcoins, you can "wash" them through a mixing service. But you can't do that with 5% of all possible bitcoins. 10 bitcoins go in, 10 bitcoins come out each day, no big deal. One day a million coins go in and a million come out. You might redirect 10 of those, but the million is a big lump that's going to stay obvious.

    Then those coins start going to accounts at an exchange. I suspect various agencies will go to that exchange and make them offers they can't refuse. If the speculation about the NSA is correct that's literally "cannot refuse" (well, short of detonating the small nuclear bomb they keep for that purpose). If you are lucky the agencies will all be nice law-abiding ones. But they might be the people who made bitcoin popular as a way to move money without government oversight... their offers are likely to be of the "would you like to watch your children die?" type. And once they have your details they will come to you with a similar offer.

    Or, and this is quite likely, 51% of the mining capacity will get together and decide that your theft did not happen, and issue a new block with the agreed fix. Sure, you have cracked the system and can just keep stealing, but they can just keep fixing. If your crack is the right sort you could flip that, and issue proof-of-work so fast you end up with 51% of the mining capacity... but you're riding a line between collapsing the value of the bitcoin vs making money out of the trick.

    It would be a shame* if your billion dollar "investment" turned out to be a way to permanently collapse the value of all cryptocurrency.

    • not a shame at all. Cryptocurrency is a stain on humanity, up there with flaring natural gas and dumping plastic in the ocean.
    958:

    He then adduced some existing aggregates of atoms (e.g., us) as, ah, existence proofs of what can be assembled out of atoms.

    Conveniently ignoring the need for a liquid solution

    959:

    I really have not studied cruptocurrenty. You said it's "traceable by design"... does this mean that the next idiot who's trying to scam me* and wants to be paid in bitcoin, I could find out who he is by looking up his #?

    • "I hacked your computer, and have Naught Pictures!!!" (jeez, are they all stupid 16-yr-olds?)
    960:

    Re: ' ... it's cheaper and easier to make money from it by building bitcoin mining farm'

    Or you could make/lose a fortune replicating a particular German-Philipine banking relationship.

    Looking forward to a report how the hottest bank in Germany got wasted and how their banking/accounting system managed to rack up money that may not have ever existed. Sounds like Enron.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/22/german-payments-firm-wirecard-says-missing-19bn-may-not-exist

    And this bank just got its wrist slapped for money laundering-related poor systems maintenance.

    'The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has fined Commerzbank (London branch) just over £37.8m ($47.4m, €42.2m) for failing to put adequate AML systems and controls in place between October 2012 and September 2017.

    Commerzbank London, which offers private banking services, was “aware of these weaknesses and failed to take reasonable and effective steps to fix them”, despite the FCA raising specific concerns about them in 2012, 2015 and 2017.'

    https://international-adviser.com/german-bank-fined-37-8m-for-anti-money-laundering-failings/

    961:

    Elderly Cynic @ 890:

    And if the Bronze Age, that pivotal 1,500-odd years of European history, has dropped out of modern myth and legend, ...

    Firstly, it hasn't, not by a long way. It lasted until well after the establishment of writing in the west, and essentially up to the era of Greek literature. We still have a lot of those myths and legends, and can often trace them back further. The siege of Troy being a classic example.

    Secondly, I have seen respectable theories that at least some of British legends date from that era. The truth is that we simply don't have a clue how ancient most of them are.

    And for me, it's the part about trying to figure out what their possible roots might have been that's interesting. I thoroughly enjoyed the BBC series In Search of the Trojan War (By way of PBS and the book that went along with it). If myths and legends were an attempt to describe real events ancient people experienced, I think it's interesting trying to figure out what those events might have been?

    Did the sun stand still while Joshua fought a Battle at Gibeon? I don't think so.

    Did the oral tradition that came eventually to be written down in the Bible attempt to describe a real event people experienced? I think it did.

    I would enjoy finding out what the actual event memorialized in that oral tradition might have been?

    962:

    Can you link to it?

    I suspect he meant Vanity Fair, originally mentioned in post 740

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/06/inside-the-cult-of-trump-his-rallies-are-church-and-he-is-the-gospel

    963:

    whitroth @ 917 I have *never* tried to play Risk by conquering Asia and using it as my base....

    I have, however, "fought a land war in Asia" ... and lived to tell the tale.

    964:

    Gotta love Republicans.

    Texas Governor holds press conference stating that Covid is now spreading at an unacceptable rate in Texas, but refuses to do anything about saying Texas remains wide open for business.

    In the meantime, in Florida the surgeon general merely recommends people use masks despite the surging numbers in Florida in a press release that many will never hear about.

    965:
    "July/August for a gradual coup? - How does one rig a Reichstag Fire in the USA? More to the point, how do you get the emregency decrees & Enablinbg Law through?"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ieIFtjnBfJU

    967:

    ilya187 @ 955:

    There's an Atlantic article on Trump rally attendees. Be afraid. Be very afraid.

    Can you link to it?

    All I found is this: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/06/trump-tulsa-rally/613273/

    and it mostly talks about people who DID NOT attend

    I think it's maybe the Vanity Fair article I posted a link to @ 740

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/06/inside-the-cult-of-trump-his-rallies-are-church-and-he-is-the-gospel

    968:

    Interesting though experiment.

    Much of what the GOP was able to do after 9/11 was the result that the people still reasonably trusted the government and the President (he still be new enough not to have done anything).

    Given Trump, would the people and Congress critters react the same way today?

    969:

    Re Trump Cultists, as said in that vanityfair piece, D.J. Trump's father and D.J. Trump himself were fans of Norman Vincent Peale, who was roughly a semi-secular early prosperity gospel guy, with a very popular 1952 self-help book. (It's basically a very simple system of magic for selfish personal gain, by my reading.) This is one reason why D.J. Trump has a strong affinity for prosperity gospels. The religious roots of Trump's magical thinking on coronavirus (Daniel Burke, May 21, 2020) It's called the "power of positive thinking," and Trump heard it from the master himself: the Rev. Norman Vincent Peale, a Manhattan pastor who became a self-help juggernaut, the Joel Osteen of the 1950s. "He thought I was his greatest student of all time," Trump has said. ... Peale has also influenced Trump's spiritual advisers To this day, Trump surrounds himself with Peale-like figures, particularly prosperity gospel preachers. One of his closest spiritual confidantes, Florida pastor Paula White, leads the White House's faith-based office and is a spiritual descendent of Peale's positive thinking -- with a Pentecostal twist. White, a televangelist, belongs to the Word of Faith movement, which teaches that God bestows health and wealth on true believers. In a Rose Garden ceremony for the National Day of Prayer earlier this month, White quoted from the Bible's Book of Job: "If you decree and declare a thing, it will be established." "I declare no more delays to the deliverance of Covid-19," White continued. "No more delays to healing and a vaccination."

    970:

    Given Trump, would the people and Congress critters react the same way today? No. The constant stream of DJT administration lies and badly bent truths has been like training wheels for the press and for activists (all ages). The US press is wired for Republicans (not as bad as the UK though), but constant lying takes its toll on credibility. Fact checking now is much faster, and countering moves/narratives are made more quickly, sometimes ahead of actual events. There would be actual debate today. Probably the war with Iraq would have been blocked (>50% chance IMO); there were people who saw the obvious lies at the time (I was one, not an activist though) but they were mocked (or worse) and got no traction. The US would still have invaded Afghanistan, and some security laws would have been passed but might have been a little less broad.

    (I am an optimist.)

    971:

    The Hairball could send troops, but not for more than 60 days without going to Congress and getting approval (which would be "phat chance").

    If he did it in Sept, he could run past the election. On the other hand, IMO, the Pentagon REALLY DOES NOT LIKE HIM, and they would run in super slo-mo, after he got them to agree.

    972:

    Not magical thinking. I heard him say it on the news yesterday, (my wife heard it too) then apparently at some point this morning he walked it back, and I didn't know until I was done with posting for the morning.

    I must say I was a little disappointed.

    973:

    the Pentagon REALLY DOES NOT LIKE HIM, and they would run in super slo-mo, after he got them to agree.

    Anything more than a few 100 troops takes serious logistics to go anywhere. And that takes time. Even a few 100 requires a lot of food, ammo, sleeping bags, whatever.

    About the only thing of consequence he could do in 60 days or less is land a few troops somewhere (Somalia anyone) or do an air power thing from the AF or Navy.

    974:

    You've read the Illuminatus Trilogy, right? You know what's in there...

    975:

    Not sure if I read the whole thing, though I vaguely remembering, back in the seventies or eighties, reading the third book.

    All sorts of fun.... Ever read Flynn's In The Country Of The Blind?

    976:

    Nope. But in the Illuminatus trilogy it turned out that Yog Sothoth had been imprisoned in the Pentagon since the beginning of World War II. Then the Weather Underground blows up part of the building and the Old One is unleashed, after which it is defeated by Eris.

    All Hail Discordia!!

    977:

    We are also "lead" by a pentecostal happy clapper here in Australia. He firmly believes that being poor is due to being a bad person and the poor deserve to suffer. Being rich on the other hand, is proof that you're good and God loves you, no matter how evil your method of becoming rich is.

    This is exactly as much fun to live under as you'd expect.

    978:

    Re oral history.

    The aboriginal people near Mount Gambier call one of the many lakes in the area a cooking pot. That's the only volcanic lake and it hasn't steamed for thousands of years. There are dozens of sinkholes that have never steamed, and they're not called cooking pots.

    But on the other hand, there's this recent Tom Scott video about the drift of the smelly batman story.

    https://youtu.be/V5u9JSnAAU4

    979:

    "To preempt someone who will correct my 'effectively exponential', I should point out that it is technically only super-polynomial and that factorising a 16m bit number is only something like 10^500 times beyond the current state of the art."

    And the problem with "current state of the art" is that you really mean "according to current unclassified state of the art".

    We have no idea what state of the art in finite field math looks like inside NSA, because they have several hundreds times more researchers on that subject than the rest of the world combined, and they have had it for decades.

    The one thing we learned from the Snowden revelations, is that whenever we have dismisses a hypothesis about what NSA can do, because "the numbers are too big", we have vastly underestimated how big the numbers are in NSAs budget and their willingness to do even "silly things" like eavesdropping all internet traffic in the entire world.

    And even after the NIST/EC debacle put blood on the table, people still seem unwilling to entertain the notion that NSA is actively sabotaging deployment of strong crypto.

    Watch the talk I linked to if you have not, and see what a few millions of dollars would buy NSA in the FOSS world, and then convince me that they didnt do any of that.

    980:

    whitroth That's a shame - I've tried imported Goose Island at Beer Festivals.. Agree about the insane overhopping with super-virulent acid/elderflower strains ... uggg.

    Bill Arnold The US press is wired for Republicans (not as bad as the UK though) THat's changing - people are really noticing that BoZo never follows through, promises are made & .... nothing happens. Or he cahnges his story or evades or even lies, as he has done in the past.

    981:

    Mallen, I went there a couple of years ago: here's The Nakamoto Variations.

    982:

    Yup, the NSA is weird. They have the world's largest Bible collection, for example -- and not just because they're into old-school religion: the first thing missionaries do when they contact a hitherto-unknown tribe or nation is to learn enough of their language to translate the Bible, so the NSA collection is a phrase book for over a thousand languages, many of them extinct.

    983:

    But if the poll numbers don't reverse, then DT isn't going to be happy, and that generally can't be good.

    Here's my expectation:

    • COVID19 is going to get a lot worse in the USA (we're seeing that happening right now due to incomplete lockdown and premature lifting -- the Republicans really don't seem to get epidemiology)

    • This will cause further lockdowns and economic disruption. It may crater the entire hospital sector due to overload. Lots of deaths and anger.

    • The long hot summer of demonstrations will continue because Black Lives Matter (and the culture of Policing in the USA is another rabbit hole I could disappear down -- cops are trained not to back down, even at an institutional level, so they'll continue to spray gasoline on a bonfire because the gas hose is their only tool).

    • One or more new Trump-related scandals will surface every month, but that's beside the point ...

    Upshot:

    • Biden can lose the election, but Trump can't win it -- at least, not the vote. He's going to lose by a wide margin.

    • Trump might take the electoral college due to voter suppression and gerrymandering, but right now that's not looking likely.

    • The Senate republican party is going to crater alongside Trump. Look for a Democrat majority in both houses as well as a Democrat president-in-waiting.

    Consequences:

    On November 7th Trump will either:

    • Withdraw from view completely and leave the ship of state rudderless for the three months of the transition period

    • Go on a rampage (this is more likely)

    If Trump goes full Godzilla he will try to destroy as many Federal institutions as he can before he's pushed out of office. Expect him to target the DoJ and the intelligence and investigatory branches for mass sackings and de-fundings, to reduce their ability to go after him once he's out of office. Possibly he'll try to de-fund the Supreme Court, or ram through recess appointments. (Think in terms of Supreme Court Justice Jared Kushner. Or Kushner's horse.) Expect him to funnel as much money as possible to close allies, followed by remaining Republican stalwarts, by diverting it from Democrat seats and institutions he sees as disloyal.

    Whatever happens Trump will stay in the White House even if he's no longer POTUS, but may eventually be kicked out by the Secret Service. Better get the nuclear codes briefcase away from him before they break the bad news ...

    984:

    I forgot one other option:

    Trump manages to steal the electoral college votes needed to stay in office, but the Republicans lose their Senate majority.

    In which case we swing into Impeachment 2.0, fast-tracked with all the dirt that didn't get dragged up during the first round, and both houses convict -- if the new Senate majority leader is ballsy enough to play by McConnell Rules, i.e. to change the rules to suit the ruling party on the fly. Then Trump goes on trial.

    If the Democrats take the Senate but face an entrenched Trump, and don't immediately go scorched-earth/war to the knife, then it's Game Over for even the pretense of democracy in the USA. Because the Repubs will retake the Senate in 2022 (they've been carefully installing an incredibly right-wing judiciary at lower levels, and working on the voter suppression) and promptly fuck everything up for good. Including the Supreme Court (Ginsberg is what, 88?)

    (If this sounds a bit hyperbolic/extreme, that's because the USA is showing all the signs of being a failed state and/or an incipient fascist dictatorship. Only the constitutional lockstep clock-tick for elections is holding them to the norms of running against a rival candidate, and that's in danger of crumbling before an insurgent party who don't believe in the principle of a loyal internal opposition, or in equality before the law.)

    985:

    The level of outright incompetence and/or corruption in German banking is truly unbelievable.

    Whenever i take a look at English edition of German newspaper or at https://ftalphaville.ft.com/ I find a new tall tale.

    And I do not read these papers that often.

    They are considered as shambling zombies by many people in finance.

    (and according to my partners, the insurance sector is not in a much better shape, they lobbied HARD to water down Solvability II disclosure obligations)

    986:

    "traceable by design"... does this mean that the next idiot who's trying to scam me* and wants to be paid in bitcoin, I could find out who he is by looking up his #?

    Not that easy.

    The basic idea is that it's PKI where the "public key" acts as an account number. People send bitcoin to that, and you spend them by using your private key to prove you own them. All those transactions go in a public log. The naive view is that it's completely anonymous, because each transaction can be (often is) done via tor or similar. "007" sent 0.1bc to "6242", times a billion transactions. You can generate new "account numbers" pretty trivially, and there are various schemes for hashing "master password plus transaction name" or whatever to make that supposedly easier to manage. But really, it's just a bunch of triplets of numbers: (private, public, balance). You can do pool or "mixin" transactions as long as they balance, and commonly this is done when there's a fee charged: (A+B+C+D -> X+Y+Z) and as long as A+B+C+D=X+Y+Z no-one cares. This is also how "anonymising" services work.

    BUT the above is strictly pretend, because you can't generally spend bitcoin in any useful quantity, and no tax office (gummit) will accept them. So you use an exchange. Lots of those will take a credit card and give you bitcoins. Some will take "Visa gift cards" and the like. BUT if you want money out... you need to link a bank account. Or find someone will will give you a bag of cash in exchange for bitcoins. For Charlie above that means someone with a few billion $US in cash... and a couple of large trucks.

    In reality suddenly the exchange knows that "007" is Whitroth. The government that supervises that exchange knows too, because otherwise bad things happen to the people running the exchange... when the tax office says "we would like to know" anyone who deals commercially with banks says "yes SIR!" or suddenly not so much dealing with banks.

    The problem is that the exchange, the government, the tax office, the financial crimes people, the dogcatcher now all know that you sold those coins. If they care, they can spread that knowledge.

    There's a whole lot of fun in stolen exchange accounts, buying stuff in one country to ship to another country (you want Iranian special sauce? We got that!) and just plain "guessing" private keys (one software wallet had a bug where only the first 32 bits of the keys it generated were populated. The rest were zero. Someone made a rainbow table and swiped ~2500 bitcoins from people who used that software). Stolen exchange accounts let you transfer coins between cryptocurrencies, so you might go Bitcoin to Monero then shuffle inside that then use a different stolen account to go Monero to Etherium, shuffle again, then your real account to turn Etherium into cash. Insert as many other currencies as you like in the chain. BUT keep those transactions under $US10k or the exchange will likely notice. And be quick, because soon after your theft those coins you stole will become "hot" and you won't be able to trade them.

    So yes, technically bitcoin is "anonymous", those account numbers are basically useless for identifying people. It's just that to the extent that they're anonymous they're also useless.

    987:

    That would be interesting - IF there was one. But we have plenty of recent experience of seeing how a good story (with no factual basis) can become accepted history - it's one of the reasons that I am so suspicious of the generally-accepted theories in science that lack any concrete proof. And, over the past 50 years, a good third of my suspicions have been shown to be right, as new facts emerge, old professors die off, and new theories are accepted.

    However, a great many such cases have been of the form that the generally-accepted theory was that something had NO basis in fact, and it later turned out to have. So I am nailing my colours to the fence on this one.

    988:

    Yer, whaa? No, they don't, and never have had. Number theory has been THE standard bearer of pure mathematics for centuries, and has had more geniuses working on it than pretty well anything else. I worked in one of the top few universities in the world in this area and, while I knew of one person who worked part-time for GCHQ, I knew nobody who worked for or knowingly with NSA - almost all of the leading alumni went on to become professors in academia. Furthermore, during the entirety of the cold war, the USSR was well-known to be the the leading country in the area, not the USA. I have lost track on what the rankings are now.

    You seem to think that mathematical breakthroughs of that nature are a matter of hard work, but that is the least of the requirements. The main ones are a genius of the Gauss or Ramanujan level and a considerable amount of luck. It may well be an insoluble problem, too, in which case even those don't help. Also, anyone who published such a technique would immediately become THE academically most sought-after mathematician in the world. Keeping it secret would be, er, tricky.

    The theory that NSA has made such a breakthrough and has managed to keep it secret is considerably less plausible than they have a working quantum computer to do the job, and not much more plausible than some of the alien visitation ones.

    989:

    Charlie If Trump goes full Godzilla - That's the point - not will he, but CAN he? At that point, I suspect people will desperately try to stop him doing such things, including quite a lot of now-embarrassed R's ... yes/no?

    Michel2Bec The level of outright incompetence and/or corruption in German banking is truly unbelievable. You DO REALISE that this is one of the Brexshiteer's main weapons? They know this & realise that Frankfurt as the centre of EU banking simply is not on .... Um, errr ... meanwhie the OTHER aspects of Brexit continue as ongoing disasters - no trade deal, food & medicine shoratges, but hey, who cares, the banking sector is flourishing!

    990:

    I just love the idea that the NSA has worked out how to find geniuses before anyone else notices them, and train them while sequestering them. Then somehow they've made dramatic breakthroughs without using them in a way that leads anyone to suspect they have done so.

    It's not the mathematical genius that I'm in awe of here, it's the organisation genius who has managed to keep the whole operation secret.

    991:

    Trump might take the electoral college due to voter suppression and gerrymandering

    As several of us have mentioned before. Gerrymandering has no effect on Senate and Presidential voting.

    992:

    Not so much before anyone else. But they do employ a lot of them. Many not on the payroll directly but as contractor working for places like John Hopkins.

    I know someone who a couple of decades back was supposed to give a talk at the NSA. When he got there they told him he couldn't go to the meeting room where the talk was being held due to his lack of the proper security clearance. After mentioning that HE was the main speaker it took a while but he got to go in but with someone at his side the entire day.

    He thought it was quite amusing.

    993:

    I just love the idea that the NSA has worked out how to find geniuses before anyone else notices them, and train them while sequestering them.

    It's not totally implausible, with the right approach to recruitment. Which is to say, you don't wait for them to come to you -- you get out into the community, start keeping tabs on promising kids who show an aptitude for pure maths early, and then apply carrot and stick: ensure they get scholarships for study to postgrad level if necessary (at departments with ex-employees or trustworthy stringers to keep an eye on them), then also arrange that once they've gone too far up a one-way career path, nobody else offers them a job (again: if you've got tentacles in their university department, you can do that). Cultivate a handful of high-end universities which can be supervised and funnel the bright kids from backgrounds without sufficient independent resources to strike out for themselves and you can start farming geniuses to order: it just takes about 10-30 years to get your program established, and a budget of a few millions to tens of millions a year.

    (The explosive growth of personal computing and the wealth of money to be made in software probably played merry hell with the NSA's mathematician-training program back in the 1970s-1990s: previously, a PhD in number theory made you barely employable outside academia or the NSA, suddenly the new graduates were getting rockstar careers and becoming millionaires.)

    994:

    Draging this back to the UK.

    Read a very short story in the last hour that Sominic Cummings was going to take an axe to planning laws. To those of us NOT in the UK just what is meant by planning laws?

    Also, apparently Japan has told the UK that if they want a trade deal with Japan for things after 12/31 Brexit they have to wrap it up in the next six weeks. If not any deal will not have time to work it's way through Japan's parliament so as to be implemented into law by Jan 1, 2021.

    995:

    Bear in mind the NSA has roots going back to the first world war's Black Chamber and then Army Intelligence. In its current incarnation it goes back to 1952, and has 30-40,000 employees (precise number classified). It's not small and is sufficiently established that decade-long planning horizons are reasonable.

    996:

    you get out into the community, start keeping tabs on promising kids who show an aptitude for pure maths early, and then apply carrot and stick: ensure they get scholarships for study to postgrad level if necessary

    As I said up thread they have a variation of this now. The offer to pay budding geniuses for their entire schooling at top universities in exchange for some years work. Even if they don't stick around you get their brains for a few years.

    I personally know someone who recently did a 3 year stint at NSA in exchange for a full ride to MIT.

    997:

    Yes. I have heard stories like that about the UK, too :-) It's a common management trope, actually, and I have been excluded from access to data and decisions where I was (a) the person who started the issue and (b) the only one who understood it.

    But, if he had worked out how to factorise large numbers in polynomial time, would he have told NSA about it and then never even hinted about it to anyone else or published anything that might lead in the same direction? :-)

    Obviously, it's theoretically possible, but I left it off my original list because it was SO unlikely. The claim that it has been done is fairly common, but mostly by people who believe in tinfoil helmets.

    998:

    So how do they keep the contractors from talking about these earthshattering discoveries, or using that knowledge in some other way, even indirectly?

    I'm thinking of the dizzy-heights crypto guys in particular: if you know that Crypto Algorithm X has not so much been broken as rendered irrelevant by NSA research why would you go back to your day job and spend years grinding out little partial-knowledge weaknesses in it? "ooh look, and chosen-plaintext attack on the 15 round version of Turtleneck"... pity the full version is 93 rounds. Meanwhile on sabbattical the genius is off at NSA working on optimisations so it can be cracked in real time with near-zero knowledge. It would be just crippling, I think, to have to pretend to your academic peers that you were doing anything serious in your day job, or even to take them seriously if they were working on it. "yes, Dave, that proof of computational complexity in your hashing algorithm is really solid" {cough nope hahaha cough}.

    It would be worse if the whole factorisation issue had been rendered moot. You're sitting there a tenured professor of pointless bullshit just pretending every single day that the garbage you're vomiting at your postdocs has any relevance to anything, knowing that it really doesn't. That would be soul-destroying. You might as well give up and go teach economics or marketing.

    999:

    Planning laws (UK) = zoning laws (USA).

    Happy joy. It means Cummmings wants to axe the green belt laws that prevent unlimited suburban sprawl, thereby allowing rich Tory landowning cronies to make bank on shitty out of town housing developments and other rich Tory concrete pouring cronies to make bank building roads out to said developments, while not providing local amenities, trashing the countryside (hey, agriculture's going to collapse post-Brexit anyway, so who cares about the squirrels?), and temporarily relieving some of the pressure on house prices at the bottom of the pile, creating more opportunities to financialize the economy by building new houses for people to take out mortgages on.

    It also means shitty slumlords get to build more slums on top of the back gardens of their slum properties, thereby bringing back the Victorian rookeries.

    What's not to like (if you're an oligarch)?

    1000:

    if you know that Crypto Algorithm X has not so much been broken as rendered irrelevant by NSA research why would you go back to your day job

    Folks who're "going back to the day job" don't get to work on the really interesting stuff at NSA. (Or they aren't allowed to go back to the day job.) I'm guessing that the "full ride to MIT in return for three years work crowd" are subsequently filtered by being given useful but not top secret/revolutionary/disruptive tasks to evaluate their ability. Then at the end of the 5 years the top 5-50% are offered a special package: a secure salary for life on the government's dime, and access to the crown jewels, in return for ... well, you're signing on with the NSA for the long haul: it's like entering a monastery, you can go in as a postulant but you're not "in" in until you take your vows as a monk.

    And if you leave or retire, there's always the Espionage Act.

    1001:

    why would you go back to your day job

    Their day job is working for JHU as a contractor to the NSA.

    Getting into the weeds of large US government agencies and how their do "employees" it is much easier for someplace like JHU to have a staff of very very smart people, some as professors, and they submit proposals to work on various needs at the NSA or it's related groups. It is much easier for the TLAs to allocate short term money (under a year) than to hire people and shuffle them around.

    The people I know who are such contractors are full time NSA employees in practice, just not in fact.

    1002:

    Then at the end of the 5 years the top 5-50% are offered a special package: a secure salary for life on the government's dime, and access to the crown jewels, in return for ...

    The case I know personally, the government pay scales don't go high enough to match the offers he had waiting at the end of his 3 year tour. They might not go high enough to allow someone to even see his offers from their lowly perch. This was in the last few years.

    1003:

    "It's not small and is sufficiently established that decade-long planning horizons are reasonable."

    Not only reasonable, they have been documented.

    For instance the push to wiretap the entire Internet seems to have started around 1989 when Europe started to get wired.

    In 1999 The construction of USS Jimmy Carter was paused to add 100 feet extra length, which is generally assumed to be for handling sub-sea optical cables.

    So yeah, NSA works on an entirely different scale than most people grasp.

    As for keeping things secret:

    Precisely how much did we know before Snowden ?

    How long time did it take before we learned that RSA was invented by GCHQ in the early 1970'ies ?

    1004:

    Oh, yes, and that gets quite a lot of people at my (peak) level of ability (say, among best 200 of the year in the UK) and a few who are better. But that doesn't help with the factorisation issue. The gulf between a top mathematician and me is comparable to the gulf between me and people who struggle with anything beyond basic arithmetic, and they are correspondingly less frequent. Also, given the choice between that and better working conditions (with no secrecy) in a top university, which is what such people have, where will they go?

    I fully agree that NSA has probably broken some 'unbreakable' cryptosystems (actually, I know they have) - just not this one :-)

    To Poul-Henning Kamp: I can tell you that the push started almost immediately wide-area communications became a 'thing' - back in the 1970s - and it almost certainly was going on in ARPA. The UK government has tried to enforce the use of mechanisms that made it easy for them to tap all communications at least three times, starting then, to my personal knowledge. I was instrumental in seeing one of those proposals off :-)

    1005:

    Yep. I'm pretty sure that's why there's the massively increased use of private sector (or academic) contractors over the past couple of decades. Direct govt. employee salaries can't compete with the private sector, but if you define the job in terms of a supply contract, then assign one employee to work the contract, it all gets laundered through a big defense contractor and the employee gets paid competitively.

    Which works, but potentially opens up huge OPSEC gaps because staff retention becomes dependent on the goodwill (or sanity) of random private sector Pointy-Haired Bosses.

    And then you run into Edward Snowden and the whole issue of how you foster loyalty to the organization in someone who isn't -- even nominally -- a member of the organization?

    1006:

    And the one's who get turned loose get a little stipend when they go back into academia, and become "talent spotters."

    1007:

    Then maybe it works a little differently; we can't pay you enough, but we could really use your talents... the next step is that we show you how to open a government contracting business. We know people who can handle the bureaucratic end of things, and after you've paid them their annual salary your take-home pay will triple.

    1008:

    Re: Factoring

    Very at odds with the harmless math geek/nerd stereotype from school: math has been weaponized!

    Also - interesting how pols/military have figured out how to weaponize math but choose to remain completely blind in even considering using math (or even a simple Excel spreadsheet) to figure out socioeconomic problems. Alas - guess there's just not enough money/budget for this!

    But wait! - Haven't there been headlines about how math* has been helping the stock market, i.e., making tons of money for the select few? So math can make money but only for private corps and cannot be used to make/find money for the public/masses. Of course I'm probably missing some key piece of what is no doubt a very rational, data-driven policy argument.

    • AI - At this point I'm assuming that comp-sci and math are so intertwined as to be inseparable.
    1009:

    Yes. You are not the first person to have observed that! Hardy would have been horrified.

    W.r.t. AI: unfortunately, that is an area where there is often far too little mathematics. There is a lot (often abused) in the statistical forms of it, but precious little in the 'machine learning'. The reason is that it was shown a long time back that this is an intractable problem, so the approaches are almost entirely heuristic.

    1010:

    It's unlikely that Trump will win and the Democrats take the Senate. There's a tendency for the vote for the Senate and for the Presidency to go the same way.

    Also, keeping "McConnell rules" wouldn't help - 67 votes are required to convict, not 51.

    1011:

    mdlve @ 968: Interesting though experiment.

    Much of what the GOP was able to do after 9/11 was the result that the people still reasonably trusted the government and the President (he still be new enough not to have done anything).

    Given Trump, would the people and Congress critters react the same way today?

    If enough Americans died at one time, yes.

    Let me make clear that I do not support 99-44/100% of 9/11 conspiracy theories. Especially that "controlled demolition" crap which is 144% bunkum. I used to favor the LIHOP (Let It Happen On Purpose) because I found the coincidence between PNAC's desire for a new Pearl Harbor to boost the U.S. commitment to militarism, mainly based on my belief that whoever decided to let George W Bush sit there at Booker Elementary School in Sarasota, FL. HAD to know he was not a target.

    But, as it turns out, apparently not. It was an internal power grab by Chaney, who didn't care if Bush was a target or not as long as he got to play with his new "continuity of government" toy.

    So, I've come around more to the belief that it really was more incompetence than conspiracy.

    But, it was MONUMENTAL incompetence. They should have been paying attention to what the intelligence agencies were telling them, but bin Laden was Clinton's bug-a-boo, and they were blinded by their own anti-Clintonism, determined to do the exact opposite of anything Clinton had done come hell or high water.

    That didn't stop them from taking full advantage of the panic in Congress.

    They DID Let It Happen ... on purpose or not, but not because they were evil, but because they were a bunch of fuckin' morons ... although they were EVIL, but that was just the cherry on top of a mile high pile of stinking, incompetent bullshit.

    1012:

    If enough Americans died at one time, yes. Mixed evidence for this. 122K Americans dead since the beginning of 2020 from COVID-19 (today's number), and that's an undercount and doesn't take into account the long-term disabled. [3] The US government response has been (first order approximation) to give vast amounts of money (this includes the Federal Reserve buying debt etc) to rich people.[2] With a minor side of slightly improved unemployment benefits. All payed for long-term debt which young people will need to pay back or default on or inflate away.

    No police state. Protests for something orthogonal (BLM) were non-violent[1], were amplified by people out of work and unable/unwilling to travel (both due to COVID-19) so protests were local and large, and there has been/will be vigilance about provocateurs so those expecting it to get violent to justify a police state crackdown failed. This vigilance(/non-violence) is likely to continue, though the economic hits due to COVID-19 may put people in the streets in the coming months and there will be protests about other matters.

    No war. And there's no country in the world that is a plausible threat to the US relative to COVID-19. (Excepting nuclear armed Russia.)

    [1] property crimes are not violence (this is argued of course) and the crimes done during the protests were done by a mix, including professional opportunistic looters. [2] The CARES Act Has Passed: Here Are The Highlights (Mar 29, 2020, Leon LaBrecque) [3] What they don’t tell you about surviving COVID-19 - 'Recovered' doesn't mean healthy again (Mike Moffitt, June 22, 2020)

    1013:

    Charlie Stross @ 984: I forgot one other option:

    Trump manages to steal the electoral college votes needed to stay in office, but the Republicans lose their Senate majority.

    In which case we swing into Impeachment 2.0, fast-tracked with all the dirt that didn't get dragged up during the first round, and both houses convict -- if the new Senate majority leader is ballsy enough to play by McConnell Rules, i.e. to change the rules to suit the ruling party on the fly. Then Trump goes on trial.

    One thing though. Impeachment 2.0 doesn't fly unless the Democrats have 67 seats in the Senate. To do that they have to hold the 12 Democratic seats that are being contested (11 incumbents running & 1 retiring) PLUS pick up 20 of the 23 Republican seats that are on the line (20 incumbents running & 3 retiring).

    Or to put it another way, they must take 32 of the 35 seats that are being contested this year. I hope they can do it, but I don't think they can.

    1014:

    There's a tendency for the vote for the Senate and for the Presidency to go the same way.

    Yes. But.

    With only 1/3 of the Senate in play at a time it all depends on which states those 33/34 Senators are in. If they are all in states that go against DT then it might happen even if DT wins.

    One of those when I have some time (yeah right) exercises that might be interesting to map out.

    1015:

    Which works, but potentially opens up huge OPSEC gaps because staff retention becomes dependent on the goodwill (or sanity) of random private sector Pointy-Haired Bosses.

    When it's John Hopkins Uni it can work well. When Boeing or LockMart not so much. (Disclosure my brother worked for IBM Federal Systems which was bought by Martin Marietta which merged with Lockheed which at some point laid him off. He mentioned Pointy Haired Bosses at times.)

    And then you run into Edward Snowden and the whole issue of how you foster loyalty to the organization in someone who isn't -- even nominally -- a member of the organization?

    Snowden was in the systems admin side of things. Which I'm guessing had a bureaucracy that tended to aim for lower costs over securing things and dealing with employee loyalty as a goal. And when I'd bring this up with some of my friends in the area some agreed and some just didn't get it.

    1016:

    So math can make money but only for private corps and cannot be used to make/find money for the public/masses. Of course I'm probably missing some key piece of what is no doubt a very rational, data-driven policy argument.

    What you're missing (unless you were being sarcastic) is the masses don't know how to maximize their profits. Individuals or small groups do. And are willing in most cases to subvert their individual goals if the pot of gold is big enough.

    1017:

    Yes. Somewhat. But a big part of it is the HR systems don't deal well with moving people around every 6 months or so. Last quarter you were working for the DID on an analysis system for intercepted battle field comms. This quarter you are working for the Navy on a new frequency hopping comm setup with a new way of doing encryption and in 3 quarters will be working on the new internal security auditing trip wire system for the NSA.

    Even in the private sector such division swapping in large companies creates internal political and accounting hassles. Government internal systems are much worse. So you build relationships with trusted contractors do show up as needed.

    And then try and figure out how to not let them turn in to Boeing.

    1018:

    double sigh

    Reality check time: the NSA may have 30k-40k employees (I'm not sure about that: there are something like 27k or 28k people who work at the Pentagon every day), but a lot of them have nothing to do with encryption.

    Let me note, for example, that I know someone VERY well who's been working for them since '12. Let's see, networking and telecom, regular visits, lasting months, to "the Sandbox", helping, among other things, the troops there communicate with home. And then all the std. bureaucratic side, of which there is a ton.

    Let's also note that NONE of those folks are getting rich - you can look up what GSA salaries are, and most of them are not up at GS-15 or higher.

    Now, let's move on to contractors. The GOP has been pushing that crap since the seventies, to "make the gommint smaller" (and enrich their buddies). There are folks who are very long term contractors (nahhh, I don't know anyone who just retired after 10 years of contract work...). There are academics with long-term relationships... but then, you have to worry about students, etc... and they're still not getting rich.

    The "start your own government contracting company" works for the management, but not for anyone else... and if you can get rockstar salaries, why work for the NSA?

    Finally, and here's the kicker. So they pull in a fraction of that 30k-40k people, let's even include contractors, and pretend that they have 10k people actually involved in cryptography (as opposed to the MUCH huger number using the knowledge and the tools.

    Right. In a world with well over SEVEN BILLION PEOPLE, they've got all the smartest ones? Pardon me, would you like to buy a bridge?

    1019:

    You can still get Goose Island, just not the brown ale.

    1020:

    One thing though. Impeachment 2.0 doesn't fly unless the Democrats have 67 seats in the Senate.

    Or if, having a majority, they change it back to 50% + 1 seats.

    That's what I meant by "playing by McConnell rules" -- using a bare working majority to rig the procedural rules in their favour, not playing by the precise set of rules McConnell rigged up in order to neuter them.

    1021:

    Goose Island brewery is a subsidiary of Anheuser-Busch. It used to be a microbrewery but now it's basically an artisanal sock-puppet label used by Big Corporate Beer to sell into the hipster market (who wouldn't be seen dead drinking Bud Lite).

    1022:

    This is plain sicko ... 22-yr soldier collaborating with some insane cult to kill his unit.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/22/politics/ethan-melzer-charged-us-soldier/index.html

    'According to the indictment, Melzer had specifically been communicating with an extremist group called "Order of the Nine Angles," whose members "have espoused violent, neo-Nazi, anti-Semitic and satanic beliefs and have expressed admiration for, among others, Nazis, such as Adolf Hitler."'

    1023:

    Oh, that's nothing compared to the whackiness that was Patrol 36, the Jewish neo-Nazi organization that infiltrated the Israeli army. (TLDR: when the Israeli Army finally noticed them, it ended in tears before bedtime.)

    1024:

    Or if, having a majority, they change it back to 50% + 1 seats.

    Ah, nope.

    Constitution requires 2/3s to convict.

    1025:

    Ah, ok. I can think of ways a working majority could put pressure on a minority grouping to play ball, though.

    1026:

    Re: '... the masses don't know how to maximize their profits.'

    Only partially sarcastic ... and my rant is directed at TPTB mostly ... however ...

    The 'masses' elect gov'ts who are supposed to figure out the best way to do that on their behalf, i.e., maximize returns*. That's one of the cornerstones of taxation: it enables the gov't to invest in programs that will yield future returns/benefits to current and future taxpayers. This 'on the voters' behalf' is also why gov'ts have the NIH, FDA, etc. and the onus/responsibility for medical advances is not on the individual taxpayer. Ditto highways - John Q Public is not expected to go out and pave the road between his house and his office. That's what taxes are for. Financial planning and policy is too sensitive a topic to be discussed in detail in polite conversation, just like sex used to be. Sheesh - grow up!

    Gov'ts have - in the past and even now - conducted basic, fundamental research in core industry segments so there's zero excuse to not do so in the financial sector which is a helluva a more important part of the current GDP than most other sectors, e.g., coal. At a minimum, the gov't should make sure that this sector doesn't end up causing a collapse of everything else via domino effect. Financial institutions are probably the most widely distributed sector apart from food: everybody uses it. The missing billions in that German bank should have US gov't financial auditors making appointments with the top-20 banks just in case.

    • 'Returns' & 'profits' are often used interchangeably.
    1027:

    Sure. Only 51 needed to set the rules for the "trial". Which, if they don't over play their hand, could be used to bring the right witnesses to make a non conviction untenable to 2/3s.

    1028:

    One thing though. Impeachment 2.0 doesn't fly unless the Democrats have 67 seats in the Senate. To do that they have to hold the 12 Democratic seats that are being contested (11 incumbents running & 1 retiring) PLUS pick up 20 of the 23 Republican seats that are on the line (20 incumbents running & 3 retiring).

    Or to put it another way, they must take 32 of the 35 seats that are being contested this year. I hope they can do it, but I don't think they can.

    Simply put, there is no way the DNC is taking 32 out of 35 seats (happy to be proven wrong on this, but)

    A lot of it though will come down to the calculations being made by GOP leaders, both in how to take back the Senate in 2022, but also to deal with 2024 elections.

    It is possible the calculation will be that a DT sitting in the WH firing of angry tweets, and possibly doing damage via executive order, will be a bigger problem than impeaching him, having Pence take over, and allowing the justice system to take care of Trump (and also, once a former President it is possible to have Twitter take a more more active role in dealing with his online posting of nonsense).

    The added benefit being a Pence WH with a GOP Senate in 2022 is likely far more appealing to many in the GOP, and Pence could keep the religious right happy.

    1029:

    Or, in simpler terms, DT in the WH might under a DNC Senate situation do something to allow the DNC to hold the Senate in 2022, which would be unacceptable to the GOP.

    1030:

    David L @ 996:

    you get out into the community, start keeping tabs on promising kids who show an aptitude for pure maths early, and then apply carrot and stick: ensure they get scholarships for study to postgrad level if necessary

    As I said up thread they have a variation of this now. The offer to pay budding geniuses for their entire schooling at top universities in exchange for some years work. Even if they don't stick around you get their brains for a few years.

    I personally know someone who recently did a 3 year stint at NSA in exchange for a full ride to MIT.

    Before the lock-down I had a weekly brunch with someone who was retired from the NSA. I've never asked what she did there; thought it would be impolite. Her husband is a retired American Lit professor.

    It's an interesting group. Besides the NSA/American Lit couple, there were at least 3 genuine NASA rocket scientists, a USAF mathematician and an engineer-computer guy who worked at Cape Canaveral (before it became Kennedy Space Center), the "emeritus" chairman of the Chemistry department at one of the big name local universities and an old time IBM Account (big iron, "bury me face down, 9 edge first", 3 martini lunches in Manhattan) Executive
    ... and me with my High School Diploma (and later an Associate Degree in Portrait Studio Management).

    1031:

    Charlie Stross @ 1000:

    if you know that Crypto Algorithm X has not so much been broken as rendered irrelevant by NSA research why would you go back to your day job

    Folks who're "going back to the day job" don't get to work on the really interesting stuff at NSA. (Or they aren't allowed to go back to the day job.) I'm guessing that the "full ride to MIT in return for three years work crowd" are subsequently filtered by being given useful but not top secret/revolutionary/disruptive tasks to evaluate their ability. Then at the end of the 5 years the top 5-50% are offered a special package: a secure salary for life on the government's dime, and access to the crown jewels, in return for ... well, you're signing on with the NSA for the long haul: it's like entering a monastery, you can go in as a postulant but you're not "in" in until you take your vows as a monk.

    And if you leave or retire, there's always the Espionage Act.

    And some of them actually meant it when they signed the Top Secret Clearance paperwork. There are still a few honest people working for the U.S. Government. Trumpolini's minions haven't weeded them all out yet.

    1032:

    Bill Arnold @ 1012:

    If enough Americans died at one time, yes.

    Mixed evidence for this.
    122K Americans dead since the beginning of 2020 from COVID-19 (today's number), and that's an undercount and doesn't take into account the long-term disabled.
    The US government response has been (first order approximation) to give vast amounts of money (this includes the Federal Reserve buying debt etc) to rich people. With a minor side of slightly improved unemployment benefits. All payed for long-term debt which young people will need to pay back or default on or inflate away.

    On 9/11, 3,000+ Americans died in just under 3 hours - all live on national TV; all 3 traditional networks plus CNN. It was practically tailor made as a "Reichstag fire" for Cheney/Bush to push the PATRIOT act through a paniced Congress.

    Covid-19 is much worse than 9/11. It will have much greater, more far reaching consequences for Americans than 9/11. But it doesn't have the immediacy; the impact. It's not good TV.

    @968

    Much of what the GOP was able to do after 9/11 was the result that the people still reasonably trusted the government and the President (he still be new enough not to have done anything). Given Trump, would the people and Congress critters react the same way today?

    An eyeball catching, good TV incident wouldn't take 122K deaths to have sufficient impact to become the new "Reichstag fire" even given how little the American people trust Donald Trump.

    If enough Americans die and it's spectacular enough, Congress will fall in line, just like dominoes.

    1033:

    Re: 'You're sitting there a tenured professor of pointless bullshit just pretending every single day that the garbage you're vomiting at your postdocs has any relevance to anything, knowing that it really doesn't. That would be soul-destroying.'

    Seriously? Sounds like Lord Kelvin (We've solved physics!) and then Einstein shows up. There's always another interesting problem or application somewhere. Or, if you're really lucky, a completely new theory.

    1034:

    David L @ 1014:

    There's a tendency for the vote for the Senate and for the Presidency to go the same way.

    Yes. But

    With only 1/3 of the Senate in play at a time it all depends on which states those 33/34 Senators are in. If they are all in states that go against DT then it might happen even if DT wins.

    One of those when I have some time (yeah right) exercises that might be interesting to map out.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections#Before_the_elections

    Thirty-five seats; thirty-four Senate Class 2 seats plus the special election in Arizona to fill the remainder of John McCain's term. Twelve seats currently held by Democrats (with one open due to retirement) and twenty-three seats held by Republicans (with three open due to retirement). The other thirty-one seats are currently held by incumbents running for reelection.

    This includes Moscow Mitch in Kentucky where the Democratic primary race got interesting a week or so ago.

    1035:

    Direct govt. employee salaries can't compete with the private sector, but if you define the job in terms of a supply contract, then assign one employee to work the contract, it all gets laundered through a big defense contractor and the employee gets paid competitively.

    Heh. That's my situation. Except I am a contractor with NOAA, not with Department of Defense.

    1036:

    Re: '... it's spectacular enough,'

    It's also got to be personal enough. Not just numbers but names of every person who's died just like the VietNam War Memorial, the Twin Towers memorial, and the patchwork quilt of the AIDS victims.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAMES_Project_AIDS_Memorial_Quilt

    1037:

    Sounds like Lord Kelvin (We've solved physics!) and then Einstein shows up.

    Not Fair! Lord Kelvin was born in 1824 and died in 1907; the picture for most of his adult lifetime was one of triumphant validation of the Newtonian model of physics, and huge strides in engineering on the basis of that model.

    By 1900 there were just a few loose threads that hadn't been sorted out. The wave-or-particle question wrt. the nature of light: Olber's paradox (which provided evidence of an anisotropic universe): the perplexing absence of the luminiferous aether (as tested by the Michelson-Morley experiment) and so on. And, as he himself pointed out, the perplexing lack of an obvious energy source for the sun. Oh, and the weird rays that fogged photographic plates and came from pitchblende ore and the uranium it contained.

    Just a few loose threads ... and just over a century afterwards, our civilization is riddled with technologies that would have had Bill Thompson clutching his head and complaining about witchcraft (before throwing himself into a crash course on post-1907 physics).

    1038:

    Charlie Stross @ 1020:

    One thing though. Impeachment 2.0 doesn't fly unless the Democrats have 67 seats in the Senate.

    Or if, having a majority, they change it back to 50% + 1 seats.

    That's what I meant by "playing by McConnell rules" -- using a bare working majority to rig the procedural rules in their favour, not playing by the precise set of rules McConnell rigged up in order to neuter them.

    They can't. The requirement for a 2/3 majority to convict during an Impeachment Trial is in the U.S. Constitution; Article 1, Section 3, Paragraph 6.

    6: The Senate shall have the sole Power to try all Impeachments. When sitting for that Purpose, they shall be on Oath or Affirmation. When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two thirds of the Members present.

    The vote against Andrew Johnson in his 1868 Impeachment Trial was 35–19; failing by one vote of reaching the required 2/3 majority. In Bill Clinton's Impeachment Trial they couldn't even get a simple majority (50%+1).

    Note that this applies to ANY Impeachment - Attorney General, Federal Judges, other Cabinet members ... even Supreme Court Justices.

    1039:

    Yes. There WAS a a conspiracy - but it was afterwards, and was to cover up their negligence, incompetence and veniality. SOP, in other words.

    Very like what the UK did over the Falklands war.

    1040:

    Not in the slightest. It means giving lectures, saying what you know is a pack of lies. Many politicians can do that with a straight face and sleep well; few academics can.

    1041:

    If I remember correctly the actual statement he made was along the lines of new discoveries being found after the fifth decimal place.

    He was absolutely correct. That's pretty much where they are until you get very good at purifying silicon.

    1042:

    Cummings has another motive, closer to home; according to various sources, his parents have been... interpreting the planning rules creatively...

    So, that "separate property" he stayed at while he was playing "different rules for the likes of me", is apparently not on record at the local planning department. The people who realised this were trying to check out whether the various planning loopholes, timelines, and grandfather rights meant that his family were within the rules.

    1043:

    Charlie, ever see a film from, I think, 1968, called The President's Analyst, with Lee Marvin?

    Everyone - if you haven't seen it, you should.

    1044:

    The GOP will fight another lockdown tooth and nail (like the failed state of Florida "oh, we can't save you, you have to save yourselves").

    When they finally give in, the Dems will be all the hell over them, and Rich Moscow Mitch, who doesn't want to give more money to "the takers" (as Romney called us), the economy will crash, and maybe, maybe the Ponzi scheme (aka the market) will too.

    1045:

    Yep. I know that my salary and benefits, working for a contractor for the NIH, were right there with the feds, and I have a good feeling that all the rest of the contractors from my company were making similar money.

    Now, the company profits....

    1046:

    Charlie@ 1037 And we are in exactly that same position right now ( As, if I understand correctly, EC has also been pointing out ) today. "Dark Matter" / "Dark Energy" / the QM_GenRel, erm, "mismatch" und so weiter Tell us something new - except that it appears that "the establishment" doesn't want to rock the boat, which is bonkers.

    1047:

    My opinion of 9/11 was always "bin Laden is just something Clinton thought of to distract from the impeachment". When it was happening, they had no clue (remember, Grand Moff Rummy was in the Pentagon when it was hit).

    However, the Shrub called it the Trifecta, that they could do whatever they wanted....

    Oh, and my late ex, a materials scientist (and a rocket scientist) always thought that one major factor that was never considered in the fall of the Towers was... vibration. As in, ever seen a tuning fork?

    1048:

    When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two thirds of the Members present.

    So all they need to do is, somehow, prevent enough of those Republican senators from attending?

    1049:

    COVID19 is going to get a lot worse in the USA

    That sadly is a given - Houston is by some reports 3 weeks away from running out of hospital beds (and that's with the children's hospital now admitting adult patients).

    This will cause further lockdowns and economic disruption. It may crater the entire hospital sector due to overload. Lots of deaths and anger.

    Lots of deaths, yes. Economic disruption very likely. Lockdowns? I'm not so sure. I don't know that the various GOP state leaders will be willing to back down on this and can't help but wonder if they will simply stick their heads further into the sand and let things play out "because think of the economy".

    The long hot summer of demonstrations will continue because Black Lives Matter

    I hope so, because that will be the only way to actually achieve meaningful change.

    Biden can lose the election, but Trump can't win it -- at least, not the vote. He's going to lose by a wide margin.

    Agree. At this point, unless there is another campaign shaking event the election is Biden's unless he is really stupid with his choice of VP.

    The Senate republican party is going to crater alongside Trump. Look for a Democrat majority in both houses as well as a Democrat president-in-waiting.

    This really comes down to Biden and his VP choice. Choose wisely and he gets a DNC Senate, choose poorly he gets a GOP Senate.

    On November 7th Trump will either:

    * Withdraw from view completely and leave the ship of state rudderless for the three months of the transition period

    I wonder about this one - after a week of angry tweets maybe he goes off for 3 months of golfing before he either faces a lot of legal troubles or flees the country. Perhaps unlikely, but with Trump one never knows.

    Go on a rampage (this is more likely)

    I believe this has been said before, but I just don't know how much he can actually do.

    Yes, attempt to do a bunch more judges. But a lot of your suggestions would simply be blocked by court challenges that only have to last until Biden takes office.

    As for funnelling money or de-funding things, that takes Congress - and unless something urgent comes up it is doubtful the DNC controlled House will agree to that.

    Essentially we run into the fact that the President isn't all powerful despite what many people think, and what he can do via executive order is still subject to the court system.

    that's because the USA is showing all the signs of being a failed state

    Absolutely.

    I do wonder at times if the USA will still exist as it is in 10 or 20 years - when climate change starts really becoming apparent and those southern states that are half of the GOP base start to get into real trouble.

    1050:

    Sounds like Lord Kelvin (We've solved physics!) and then Einstein shows up.

    Imagine being Lord Kelvin with Einstein in a closet, but well into the bit where Einstein has produced working examples of some of his wilder variations from previous theory. BUT neither of them is allowed to tell anyone what they've found out, and have to deny it if anyone else seems to be heading in that direction. They have to take pre-relativity physics very seriously indeed in order to remain very serious people.

    That's where your "part time NSA guy who knows that factorisation is easy" is stuck.

    He can't tell anyone, he can't work on the development of the stuff he know, he has to pretend that ciphers which depend on factorisation are still useful... and quite probably has to actually work on them just to stay plausible as an academic. This is all much worse if it's quantum crackery where elliptic curves etc are also garbage.

    1051:

    You forgot another option:

    the White House is scaling back/ending temperature and health checks for visitors at the White House

    So the other option is that Trump dies or is permanently disabled by Covid-19.

    Why is he scaling back testing at whitehouse.com? Pick any (or all) of the choices below: --Same reason he's scaling back testing in key states: less evidence of pandemic deaths, he's less constrained by fact checkers on the campaign trail. --His usual business practices, as seen since the 1980s, with regards to careful record keeping --A sincere wish to use the inevitable frailty and mortality of humankind to avoid repaying almost $500 million in loans over the next four years. Per the report, he personally signed some of the loans, so he's on the hook for them, and one of the banks loaning the money is trying to unwind business ties with him. His financial game may be running out, even with all the emoluments he raked in. --A desire to have a large and diverse population exposed to Coronavirus, so that participants in his Warp Speed vaccine creation program can quickly get through Phase 3, and he can announce a working vaccine right before the election.

    My personal prediction is the following: --A bunch of super-rich throw their support behind Biden, with the proviso that he's going to be a neoliberal president, right?
    --Old school republicans throw their support behind Biden for the same reason (cf: retired Republican National Security Officials) --The progressives get thrown maybe a bone or two (unfortunately likely, leading to another decade of unrest). It'd be nice if the defense establishment and the environmentalists came together to force a Green New Deal/Black Lives Matter coalition, but...we'll see. --Biden wins by a landslide. --Trump gets spiderwebbed by state investigations and litigation starting the day after the election. Meanwhile, the legislative branch does whatever minimal chores that need to be done and stall him out.

    The point here is a concerted effort to scapegoat the lame duck executives in the hopes that people will forget how the super-rich profited and Republicans profited in the last four years. Big displays of repentance may occur. We'll see how long people remember what happened this year.

    1052:

    I do wonder at times if the USA will still exist as it is in 10 or 20 years - when climate change starts really becoming apparent and those southern states that are half of the GOP base start to get into real trouble.

    With Republicans as a viable party? Probably not. Under Bush II, they tried to make gestures towards being more racially inclusive. That plan got dumped as they seem to have swung towards fascism and being sock puppets for the ultra-wealthy. Problem is, they're already having to massively stack the deck to stay in power.

    When those who can buy elections realize that pro-business democrats are cheaper and more effective (cf: California and New York politics), the GOP probably will go into the wilderness and we'll have another set of problems on our hands.

    The bigger problem for the ultra-rich is that their personal compasses tell them that the Grand Men of History are the ones who keep things running. Trying to make that work instead shows up as the failures of the various East India Companies, Fordlandia, various authoritarian failures, and of course, ol' .45 serving as a great example of how to do the reverse Midas.

    If the question is what the US will look like geopolitically in 20-30 years, you got me. I tend to think that, if the US still exists in 100 years, the non-coastal West (west of the Mississippi) will largely be stateless land, the coasts may be two (or more) separate nations, the state and federal capitols will be in different places (I'm betting Cleveland or Chicago for the rump US), and so forth. That's if we're lucky. Population will likely be far lower than it is now, too. Hopefully it will be above zero.

    1053:

    As for the NSA, I mean, sure, hire all the eccentric genius code breakers and mathematicians you want.

    What I think they're probably doing more successfully is every variation on the theme of a Man in the Middle attack you can imagine, and probably a bunch you can't.

    --Hacking undersea cables? That couldn't be what those specially outfitted subs are for, could it? Or those anonymous buildings they just happen to own mere feet from where the cables come on shore?

    Hacking land lines and cell towers? Or those anonymous rooms in data centers and switching centers worldwide? Why sure, why not?

    Zero day exploits come and go, but access to the middle is hard to beat.

    To do this kind of stuff, you need some other geniuses too: --People who are geniuses at making connections with people in the digital and telecoms industries. For when things need to be negotiated to mutual satisfaction. Back doors are easier than brute force. --People who are geniuses in international real estate transactions, and people who are geniuses at wealth management. These are for two purposes: to hide NSA activites, and to find the hidden activities of other big players, both state and non-state. These careers are built around discretion, so that's less of an issue than hiring a math genius. The draw here is getting to help manage the clandestine part of the world's biggest fortune.
    --Deep sea technical divers. I'll bet the some of the world's best underwater cable buggers either work directly for NSA or get sheep-dipped fairly regularly into their service. And the others with that skill set likely work for China and Russia.

    1054:

    You missed one: satellite communications.

    What did you think the X-37 was for?

    1055:

    Well, I figured the X-37 was for the USSF and NRO to do stuff in space. I don't know whether they're hauling payloads for the NSA or not. Presumably they are, but I don't know how Black NASA works.

    Otherwise, I agree, NSA's got big SIGINT ears up there. Ones the size of football fields, IIRC. In my idle moments, I wonder if they do a stingray from geosynchronous orbit (no, I don't think they can. But it's fun to speculate if I'm in the mood to get pointlessly nervous).

    I also failed to mention all those interestingly high tech "business jets" that fly in and out of various military bases. They're surveillance planes, but what they're surveilling? I dunno. NSA? I dunno. They're doing SIGINT for someone...

    1056:

    My point was to overlay the Senate seats in play with the states. Then look at how likely each might go in the Presidential and see how many might flip.

    1057:

    So all they need to do is, somehow, prevent enough of those Republican senators from attending?

    Mitch made it clear before the last one that "each one of us will be here with his butt in their seat the entire time".

    Now I know why he was so stern in him comment.

    1058:

    whitroth @ 1047: My opinion of 9/11 was always "bin Laden is just something Clinton thought of to distract from the impeachment". When it was happening, they had no clue (remember, Grand Moff Rummy was in the Pentagon when it was hit).

    They were clueless, but they were clueless because they had chosen to be clueless. Richard A. Clarke's book Against All Enemies gives a fairly good account of how (and why) the focus shifted away from Jihadist Terrorism.

    Clarke was a hold-over from the George H.W. Bush administration where he had helped coordinate diplomatic initiatives supporting the first Gulf War (1990-1991). Jihadist terrorism was a problem the Clinton administration had to deal with from day 1, because GHWB choked on removing Saddam Hussein and they ended up with American forces based in Saudi Arabia (which is what originally set off bin Laden, formerly a semi-US ally (by way of the Pakistani ISI) in the fight against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

    The February 26, 1993 World Trade Center bombing took place only slightly over a month after Clinton took office; five and a half years before Gingrinch's impeachment fiasco.

    A good part of the reason was the Bush family's ties to the Saudi Royal family & Dick Cheney's National Energy Policy Development Group

    However, the Shrub called it the Trifecta, that they could do whatever they wanted....

    Oh, and my late ex, a materials scientist (and a rocket scientist) always thought that one major factor that was never considered in the fall of the Towers was... vibration. As in, ever seen a tuning fork?

    Seen one? I may even still have one around here somewhere. I've been playing guitar more than 50 years.

    But it's not needed to explain the collapse of the twin towers. It was just a flaw in the design with those long stiff floor beams connecting the vertical core to the vertical perimeter.

    The initial impacts destroyed too many of the verticals and as the fires weakened the remaining long beams they snapped loose from the remaining verticals allowing them to buckle from the weight above them. When the weight of the floors above came crashing down on the floor below, that floor's weight added energy to the collapse, with the weight of each successive floor accelerating the collapse.

    That's why the south tower failed first even though it was the second tower hit. The impact was lower with more floors above it. There was more weight bearing down on the remaining verticals. That's also why it took less time to collapse (about 2 sec faster). More weight above due to the lower impact point, greater acceleration.

    Debris from the north tower's collapse damaged building 7 and the fires from that damage ultimately weakened the structure enough that it collapsed as well.

    The one thing I doubt we'll ever know is whether bin Laden, reportedly a trained civil engineer, knew the damage from crashing a hijacked airliner into the towers would lead to its collapse. Did he anticipate the flaw in the design before anyone else?

    1059:

    the White House is scaling back/ending temperature and health checks for visitors at the White House

    To the general grounds yes. If you expect to get close to the Pres or VP you still get tested.

    What they have done is get rid of the visible testing. Bad optics and PR I suspect.

    1060:

    flaw in the design before anyone else?

    You mean that the fire retardant on the steel would not last after a fully fueled jet crash?

    1061:

    Robert @ 1048:

    When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two thirds of the Members present.

    So all they need to do is, somehow, prevent enough of those Republican senators from attending?

    Not exactly. The only way to actually keep those Republican Senators from attending would be to kill them, creating vacant seats. If they're still alive, the Chief Justice will send the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate out to compel them to be present.

    You'd need to kill 20 - 25 Republican Senators to create enough vacancies.

    Plus, I think it really means "two thirds of the Members" must be present in the chamber to even hold the trial. The Republicans could possibly block a Senate trial from taking place if enough of them went AWOL.

    1062:

    I watched the towers come down live from the BBC website from a PC in the electronics lab at the university i was attending. (The us websites were unreachable)It wasnt surprising at all.I saw something blow out the side. I assumed it was some sort of support that failed from heat. I was not far off. It was one of the clamps that held the floors to the skin of the building. I remember thinking "Thats not good" and the the whole roe of them along one side unzipped and I thought "crap". At that point I would have been surprised only by the building staying up.

    I dont think vibration and resonance was much of a factor because the buildings stayed up for quite a while after the impact. Its said in documentaries that the big flaw that brought them down was that the impact knocked the spray on insulation off the metal beams allowing the fire to soften the metal. Then the jet fuel was able to ignite fires on multiple floors,activating the fire suppression system on those floors. That caused the water pressure to drop so low that the system was essentially useless. If the insulation had stayed on and the fire supression system had functioned, the building might have survived.

    1063:

    David L @ 1060:

    flaw in the design before anyone else?

    You mean that the fire retardant on the steel would not last after a fully fueled jet crash?

    That might have been part of it, although I think a lot of the fire retardant was probably mechanically dislocated by the the impact. So it didn't offer that much protection anyway.

    I'm thinking more that the long unsupported beams sagged more as they were heated than shorter beams would have. The fire was hot enough the beams would have warped even if it wasn't hot enough to melt steel.

    The sagging longer spans put a greater shear load on the end connectors where they were attached to the vertical beams. And with so many of the vertical members damaged the remaining ones would have been more highly stressed. As the end connections sheared there would be a cascading failure.

    I'm certainly not an engineer, but I was an iron worker for a while. If I had given it any thought before it happened, I might have expected something more like The Towering Inferno, killing only those trapped above the fire.

    I suspect the designers might have had a similar blind spot. But, might bin Laden have realized that some combination of fire with enough damaged vertical beams would produce such shear failures?

    1064:

    It should be noted, the jet fuel wasnt what actually caused the heat. It just ignited the fire but burned of relatively fast. It was the office co tents that kept burning.

    1065:

    IMHO, there's little point in impeaching .45 again, since at most it will cost him a few weeks. It would also tangle up the transition more than it would already be mangled.

    What might be useful is various jurisdictions (courts, house, states) issuing subpoenas to stop the executive branch from destroying records and other things. That's perfectly legitimate, so far as I can tell, and really should not be limited to the White House.

    To use the language of Orange, though, I find myself hoping (possibly as he does in dark moments) that he'll get the "kung flu chop," and Tuppence will have to finish out the campaign in a really nice October Surprise. I don't wish him dead. Merely well ventilated until February, and able to stand trial thereafter.

    1066:

    The lead architect on the buildings did several interviews after things were over. He said as soon as he saw the results of the first impact he knew the tower would come down and quickly. But he was unable to get through to anyone who could make use of the information. (Communications into the emergency systems of NYC was a bit chaotic that morning.)

    The design for the building was to survive an impact by a jetliner, large or small, but one lost in the fog or similar at the end of a flight and without a full fuel load. There was never a requirement or consideration to deal with a fully fuel loaded jet crashing into one or both on purpose.

    The big fuel load set everything on fire on the floors impacted and lasted long enough to get everything possible from the building floors burning hot. The crash blew off a lot of the retardant and then the fire was hot enough and long enough to soften the steel and cause it to sag and then break free from the exterior walls. With no where near enough time for fire fighters to have any impact.

    There is no such thing as fire proof steel. Just like those safes sold as fire proof are not. They just have a rating that the heat will not get to the interior (or the steel beams) until any expected fire burns out or is put out. That was just not the case on 9/11.

    And those long spans were also intentional so that each floor had nearly an acre of floor space without columns except a single central core.

    So the long beams were intentional and planned for. It was never considered that jets with nearly full fuel loads might crash into a tower. The retardant acted as designed but the design spec was exceeded.

    The flaw was in not thinking someone would use a hijacked jet as a kamikaze weapon. Which is likely a flaw in most tall buildings around the world.

    1067:

    So the long beams were intentional and planned for.

    A recent discovery in Wellington NZ is that long stiff prefab slabs supported at each end can shuffle off their supports when an earthquake has a long duration (e.g. Kaikoura 2016). This discovery has not yet made its way into building regs, but some new-ish buildings have been closed due to this semi-secret knowledge (e.g. Wellington Public Library).

    1068:

    Interesting. But the earthquake risk in NYC is very low. Even when compared to that of places like St. Louis or Memphis. (see New Madrid fault/earthquake)

    But then again Alaska/Japan down around Asia to NZ is different in that aspect. Ditto the western coasts of the Americas.

    1069:

    I don't know that the insulation being stripped off or not stripped off would have made any difference in the end.

    I was at my Mum's watching a program that I've forgotten the name of, but it was a bit like "grand designs" except American. The program focused on the conversion of a municipal water tank into a mansion. There were huge columns that ran through the living space and the home owner explained that they were so big because New York required that they survive a fire for two hours before failing. (actually, I'm not sure now if it was two or three hours)

    There was a little ticker that was popping up during the program saying something like "Commuter Plane Crashes into New York Tower Building"

    So when the program ended we decided to have a quick look at the news before bed.

    It was quickly apparent that it wasn't a commuter plane (I was thinking Cessna Caravan or similar), but rather a jet liner. We looked at the fire and we said to each other, "well, they've got 2 hours to get those people off the roof before the building collapses".

    As it turned out, I don't think there was any attempt to rescue people from the roof, and I don't think the extra time would have made any difference to that.

    1070:

    mdive Biden & VP choice ... who will presumably be a POTUS-in-waiting - an "Heir Presumptive" if you will. So, it's vitally important. REALLY, really ought to be female, but I suspect he'll pick a brown male .... Opinions?

    Heteromeles "Hacking undersea cables?" - Like the UK did in 1914, you mean?

    1071:

    Yeah, that. The latest on Cummings Sr's questionably-legal "cottage" is that it probably is legal, but only because they managed to avoid detection or complaints to the local authority planning department for enough years that it's too late to do anything.

    Absolutely disgraceful. (Also, Council Tax evasion the rich and successful way.)

    1072:

    As it turned out, I don't think there was any attempt to rescue people from the roof, and I don't think the extra time would have made any difference to that.

    They had maybe 40-50 minutes at best ... but with the building burning under the roof I'm guessing no sane helicopter pilot would want to risk getting close to those thermals. Or adding the extra weight of a chopper (a couple of tonnes minimum) on top of a building that was already clearly overloaded. And you can't raise people very fast with winches.

    1073:

    I don't know that the insulation being stripped off or not stripped off would have made any difference in the end.

    The towers might have stood an hour or few longer but that's it.

    The point of the insulation was to not fire proof the steel. Just to give everyone time to fight a fire. These fires were so massive that fighting them in enough time was not possible. So eventually the steel would fail. It was just a matter of how long.

    1075:

    One tower had all kinds of antennas on top of it. Cell, radio, TV.

    And even if you avoid those at that height there is always lots of wind. If you ever go on top of such a building outdoors the breeze can be serious. At a minimum.

    1076:

    How to actually get Trump re-elected - we hope not, but it's all too plausible. Pompeo makes sure there's a "provocation" - instant war with iran in Spetember, DT wraps himself in the flag ... simples. See also

    1077:

    It's dubious.

    Two years ago they already tried to drum up a war with Iran, something the Iranian government also kind of wanted, and the DoD quietly nixed it. We didn't have the resources to fight that war then, and we don't have the resources to fight that war now with Covid-19 thrown into the mix.

    Here's the analysis Bill Arnold pointed to: https://mwi.usma.edu/irans-human-geography-wicked-problem-people-places-things-complicates-us-strategy/

    Long story short, unless Iran nukes the white house, any drumbeat towards war would be met with: "the economy's right on the edge of depression, just starting to maybe recover*, and we have an out of control pandemic. You want to spend a trillion dollars on what?" And this time, we've been practicing protesting for years.

    As for the Veep, I'll be shocked if Biden does not pick a black woman, and he's got a fair number to choose from, including Kamala Harris and Stacey Abrams. Senator Harris has been working pretty hard at burnishing her progressive credentials these last few months, but Biden may pick someone out of the south (there are black female legislators in Georgia and Florida) to try to pull more support away from Trump in that region.

    The biggest scenario that would get Trump reelected might be if his Operation Warp Speed to come up with a Covid-19 vaccine before the election pays off (aka a miracle happens and he was actually responsible for it). Or if the Republicans so corrupt the voting machinery in swing states that they can give a plausible appearance of victory.

    1078:

    "Oh, and my late ex, a materials scientist (and a rocket scientist) always thought that one major factor that was never considered in the fall of the Towers was... vibration. As in, ever seen a tuning fork?"

    Overtaken by the discussion rather now, but: they would have been no less well designed to cope with that sort of load than with "obvious" kinds of load (like their own weight). Two tall prongs sticking up next to each other like that will have a problem with going poioioing when the wind blows due to vortex shedding effects. It's a problem even with single prongs, which is why tall chimneys have those spiral things at the top to try and disrupt the process, and it's a bigger problem with two prongs close enough together to be aerodynamically coupled, which is why tall chimneys are usually spaced a lot further apart than those towers were. (Similar effects are of course famously significant with suspension bridges.)

    The movement resembles a tuning fork but the configuration is different - the two sides of the tuning fork are tightly coupled together by the elasticity of the metal and there is a high impedance between the support and ground, whereas with two towers both supports are reasonably well grounded and are better coupled to ground than each other (cf. two nails in a plank of wood being crappy as a tuning fork) and the coupling is aerodynamic.

    In terms of oscillation induced by mechanical impact on one prong alone, aerodynamic coupling of course doesn't come into it. With a tuning fork the tight coupling between prongs and loose coupling to ground results in both prongs vibrating, but with a pair of towers it's not clear that there is enough coupling between the towers / enough lack of coupling between the assembly and ground for that to be significant. It's hard to make a decent estimate because of the unfamiliarly large scale where you find a lot more rubber and jelly than I'm used to, but I doubt an impact-induced oscillation of one prong would excite the other one very much before it decayed itself. I doubt very strongly that you'd find it the kind of high-Q resonator that the tight coupling and isolation makes of a tuning fork.

    1079:

    but with a pair of towers it's not clear that there is enough coupling between the towers / enough lack of coupling between the assembly and ground for that to be significant.

    From a Wikipedia article. The World Trade Center site was located on man-made water-clogged landfill that had accumulated over centuries, providing an extension of land out onto the Hudson River from the original Manhattan shoreline, with bedrock located 65 feet (20 m) below.

    So 5 stories before you are on hard foundations. So 5 stories of softer stuff/muck packed around the base of each tower. And I think they were a big city block apart. Maybe 2. Which if I'm understanding what you are saying would tend to dampen out such vibration coupling.

    1080:

    Absolutely. The overemphasis on ever more impossibly unbreakable methods of encryption obscures (quite possibly with intent) the actuality that it doesn't actually matter all that much. You can get 90% of the way there with easy stuff like traffic analysis and an awful lot of the time 90% is good enough.

    It also obscures the point that blithely waving around a strong cipher and thinking that that alone gives you a complete assurance of security means you forget about all the boring other stuff you have to do to give you a real assurance of security. Yet it's attacks on all the boring other stuff that have been how most significant breaks have been made ever since people came up with anything tougher than the Caesar cipher which you can break in your head. And there is a vastly greater scope for such attacks with the quantity and obscurity of the boring other stuff that computer encryption gives you.

    1081:

    Good grief. Yes, I should think so. I thought the big thing about Manhattan was that the bedrock was not very far down at all, so digging subways was a pain but building skyscrapers was unusually easy. It seems kind of perverse to pick a spot for the tallest skyscrapers of the lot where you have to go through 20 metres of goo to find something to sit them on.

    1082:

    Greg: Biden & VP choice ... who will presumably be a POTUS-in-waiting - an "Heir Presumptive" if you will. So, it's vitally important. REALLY, really ought to be female, but I suspect he'll pick a brown male .... Opinions?

    Biden is on record as saying his VP choice will be female during a March debate, to go back on this would be problematic.

    Heteromeles: I'll be shocked if Biden does not pick a black woman, and he's got a fair number to choose from, including Kamala Harris and Stacey Abrams. Senator Harris has been working pretty hard at burnishing her progressive credentials these last few months, but Biden may pick someone out of the south (there are black female legislators in Georgia and Florida) to try to pull more support away from Trump in that region.

    So to cover this and Greg's question, I don't know who they will pick or should pick.

    But with how turbulent things are currently there is a great deal of danger in picking the wrong candidate, as in some ways the usual vetting process isn't designed to handle BLM/MeToo/? in the social media world where it is difficult to know what will upset the public in 3 weeks time.

    Essentially the VP choice should come down to helping to achieve 2 goals - win the necessary swing states and win enough Senate seats to take control of the Senate.

    The good news is that events of the last 4 months have given Biden a lead, sometimes healthy, in those important swing states so the VP choice on that issue is leaning more don't do harm than needing to bring in votes.

    Trying to take votes from Trump in the south is bad reasoning for a choice, as it is unlikely to happen and what matters are the swing states and the Senate.

    Which means the choice needs to be driven by the Senate, and I am not familiar with what States the DNC can try and take from the GOP - but it is a safe bet that a progressive, left leaning VP would alienate those Senate state voters (they are currently GOP).

    The danger is that the decision will be made based on reasons other than winning the Senate - for example the DNC House Whip is on record as saying the VP needs to be black because "African American women needed to be rewarded for their loyalty." Now it may be that a black candidate is the best candidate, but that is the wrong reason for selecting them - the reason needs to be about winning the Senate.

    And it should be obvious, but the best way to reward African American women, and all women in the US, is to take the Senate so that the Supreme Court can be saved from further GOP loyal justices - who are chosen primarily with the goal of overturning Roe v Wade - and so that the DNC can pass laws that benefit all the groups that are being attacked by the GOP.

    Unfortunately I am not sure key people understand this.

    (side note - Kentucky primaries on the Senate side, up until recently the DNC primary candidate (McGrath) has been going toe to toe with McConnell in the polls, and raising more money than McConnell. Yet thanks to the last 3 or so weeks McGrath is now in a primary that is too close to call (votes still be counted this morning) with another DNC candidate who has ridden the BLM protests into contention.

    Which in a way is great, the other candidate is likely a great guy - but (and it would be nice to be wrong) my early feeling is he can't beat McConnell is Kentucky.)

    1083:

    It seems kind of perverse to pick a spot for the tallest skyscrapers of the lot where you have to go through 20 metres of goo to find something to sit them on.

    Most building these days tend to have multiple levels of car parking under them, so having to go 20 metres to find bedrock could be an advantage.

    1084:

    It also obscures the point that blithely waving around a strong cipher and thinking that that alone gives you a complete assurance of security means you forget about all the boring other stuff you have to do to give you a real assurance of security.

    Hell yes.

    A side effect of the move towards Thunderbolt 3 and then USB-C/4.0 (which tunnels Thunderbolt over USB: one cable to rule them all) is that Thunderbolt provides multiple channel access to the PCIe bus, and thereby drives a highway straight into the CPU. Which admittedly is more like a bunch of specialized computers flying in loose formation these days, but: when even a frickin' peripheral cable has an ARM microcontroller built into the plugs at either end, and an iPad digital AV connector dongle runs an entire goddamn operating system (XNU, thank you very much) ... nope, security is a forlorn hope unless you start with a 20 year old well-understood platform, solder all the ports shut, and get very paranoid.

    1085:

    "Which admittedly is more like a bunch of specialized computers flying in loose formation these days"

    And before we can talk about any kind of security, we need to find out who controls how many computers there are, what software they run and in the service of who they do so.

    Intel managed to embed a MINIX3 computer in all their chips for a loooong time before anybody found out.

    1086:

    It seems kind of perverse to pick a spot for the tallest skyscrapers of the lot where you have to go through 20 metres of goo to find something to sit them on.

    Location, location, location.

    Bedrock in lower Manhattan is as described. And for decades that was where the transportation came together. But what happens is the bedrock is much lower as you head up town. Around Greenwich Village it is so deep that it is ignored. Which is why aerial views show most buildings in the area are 5 stories or less. Then the bedrock starts starts getting closer to ground level and you get the area south of Central park which is full of sky scrapers.

    So since the rail tunnels from NJ came into Manhattan at the end of the island and Wall Street is there that's where it made sense to build the WTC and give all those financial firms space next to each other. Which was much more than those 2 towers. That 50 story building that also came down was a part of it. Plus others. But putting it where the tunnels came out meant that all kinds of people could live in NJ and commute to work and NOT have to occupy street space during their commutes.

    This was in the later 60s and the wipe out of the NYC electronics district and other neighborhoods via eminent domain was lamented loudly at the time. And in many ways was the last big land grab by governments in NYC. The Port Authority of NY/NJ owned it then and now. Mostly. Which is a huge agency in the area that was created to run the area ports and now owns a lot of real estate and runs much of the public transit between NYC/NJ and other things.

    Anyway, going down 60 feet was worth it due to other considerations. Especially for such a huge project. 7 major buildings at the time.

    1087:

    Most building these days tend to have multiple levels of car parking under them, so having to go 20 metres to find bedrock could be an advantage.

    The World Trade Center then and now has shopping, subway stations, food, etc.. under the buildings. I was there at the end of last summer and there's a huge shopping mall about the size of an outdoor football (either version) stadium between the buildings. Think of an iceberg. Only 10% visible above ground. One end of it takes you to the new tower(s) the other end to the subway station complex in lower Manhattan.

    Manhattan has a very low ratio of cars to people. Plus spending $100 / day for on demand parking keeps the numbers down. Less by the month.

    1088:

    Actually, if someone wants to use this as a setting (for just about any story or modern-day RPG):

    The pigeon club. Turns out that this group of eccentrics that's always buying, selling, and exchanging birds is, in fact, the biggest anonymous sneaker-net in the city. The birds carry encrypted microSDs and tiny thumb drives all over the place, for, well...anybody with the right connections, Connections, meaning someone who either breeds pigeons or knows someone who does. Discretion is mandatory for being a node in this particular network. But it helps pay for the rather eye-opening costs of maintaining pedigreed pigeons.

    Anyway, how the setup works and what information is moving through it depends on whoever's using the setting, but it's a whole different take on the old pigeon drop. Call it the pigeon dropbox perhaps?

    1089:

    But of course. Thing is, a certain bloke called Pratchett has pretty much been there already.

    1090:

    John Wick 2 had Laurence Fishburne as the Bowery King, "an operative who runs a clandestine pigeon network under the cover of abject poverty. His birds work behind the scenes to deliver messages and small objects off the grid to help keep his assassins’ activities underground. " 'John Wick' Pigeon Secret Service Totally Plausible, Bird Study Suggests (Peter Hess, 2017)

    You could even use them to distribute one time pads, with multiple pigeon OTP drops per endpoint, xored together. (Ala the "A Fire Upon the Deep" quote #848) Though the assassin comsec seems primitive enough that this might be overkill.

    1091:

    Indeed. Actually, that's always been the case to some extent (e.g. IBM 360 channels) - the difference today is that (a) every damn peripheral (including hot-pluggable ones) does it and (b) you no longer need to be a specialised hardware hacker (with the specialised equipment) to do it.

    Some of us tried to resist that sort of thing when it started to become pervasive in operating system design (especially the windowing systems), and the early design of Windows NT moved towards security rather than away from it, but we all lost out there, too. However, once you can hack the CPU, whether the operating system is hackable becomes rather moot ....

    As Pigeon says in #1080, traffic analysis is generally enough. I could transfer everything to a collaborator using a one-time pad, but all 'they' would need to do is to enter my house, replace a couple of chips and the power supply on my desktop by apparently identical ones, and the mains would broadcast every keystroke and mouse action to whoever wanted to listen.

    1092:

    Right, but her take was the vibrational frequency of the buildings, once struck that hard, would sync.

    1093:

    RFC 1149

    Or RFC 2549, including QoS.

    1094:

    Heteromeles @ 1065: IMHO, there's little point in impeaching .45 again, since at most it will cost him a few weeks. It would also tangle up the transition more than it would already be mangled.

    The coach at my old high school would disagree. He'd say, "Ya'll are gonna' keep runnin' that play 'til you get it right!"

    But the discussion wasn't about whether it should happen or not, but whether the Democrats could use "the McConnell rules" to convict him. They can't. The 2/3 requirement is baked into the Constitution.

    What might be useful is various jurisdictions (courts, house, states) issuing subpoenas to stop the executive branch from destroying records and other things. That's perfectly legitimate, so far as I can tell, and really should not be limited to the White House.

    To use the language of Orange, though, I find myself hoping (possibly as he does in dark moments) that he'll get the "kung flu chop," and Tuppence will have to finish out the campaign in a really nice October Surprise. I don't wish him dead. Merely well ventilated until February, and able to stand trial thereafter.

    I think you're letting him off too easy.

    1095:

    David L @ 1066: The flaw was in not thinking someone would use a hijacked jet as a kamikaze weapon. Which is likely a flaw in most tall buildings around the world.

    I'm not even happy using the word "flaw" to describe it. I just don't know a better word.

    1096:

    I think you're letting him off too easy.

    Five months on a ventilator, losing an election, and going into legal action for (probably) the rest of his (hopefully unnaturally prolonged) life? I suppose, under some lights, that is insufficiently cruel. But I'm not all that cruel, really.

    If he dies, so do a bunch of prosecutions. I really would like to get all his dirty laundry very thoroughly aired. So long life and competence to stand trial are my hopes for him.

    1097:

    Shows what I know. Now I wonder how many TLAs have (sub)urban pigeon operations? It's not like the military hasn't done this before, after all. Moving an 128 tb sduc via pigeon across a city actually is a fairly efficient pipeline, at least when used rarely.

    1098:

    Until the pigeon gets knoced-off bya tower-dwelling Peregrine falcon & someone notices the message on the remains of the pigeon's leg through their tower's windows - & then the authorities take a look ......

    1099:

    Depends on the traffic measures: Presumably there's a code on the cargo (for routing) and the chip is encrypted properly. The question is whether the carrier pigeon has an identifying band on it or not. I suspect that you wouldn't ID the birds carrying sensitive cargo, so that it's harder to put the lofts under surveillance.

    Problem is, if you kill the carrying pigeon (not that easy, actually, especially if they're racing birds*), you lose the tracking data. The ideal (and hard) situation is that you trap a carrier pigeon, strap a transmitter onto it, and track where it goes. I suppose forensics might give someone some hint of where the bird came from, but that would be messy.

    *I had a chat with a falconer who also kept pigeons. When he was getting his peregrine ready to hunt, he'd release a couple of ordinary white pigeons in front of the peregrine. That bird almost invariably missed the pigeons, leading to a really angry peregrine that was ready to kill whatever it was aimed at next. Pigeons can average 60 mph, so if you have a homing pigeon that's flying that fast across a city, it's unlikely to stop and hard to catch, compared to pigeons feeding on the ground.

    1100:

    gasdive @ 1069: There was a little ticker that was popping up during the program saying something like "Commuter Plane Crashes into New York Tower Building"

    I was on a service call that morning. I got done with it & returned to my car right at 9:00am and caught the five minute NPR headline news broadcast at the top of the hour. No mention of the incident at all on that broadcast.

    At 9:05am they switched over to BBC Newshour and the announcer said something about an accident with a small plane hitting one of the towers in New York and introducing their reporter in New York, who right in the middle of the introduction interrupted to say that another plane had just flown into the other tower.

    They continued to blather back and forth about bad piloting for a few more minutes after that and whether it might be due to bad weather. I don't think they could immediately wrap their heads around what was happening, but I knew right then, as soon as I heard that a second plane had hit the other tower that it was no accident.

    I was right at the intersection where there's a fast food place I know had CNN's Headline News channel on all the time, so I pulled in to see what was going on. The Headline News channel didn't have anything about it during the time I stayed there. I think Headline News is canned and no one thought to update it right away or to switch it over to CNN's live feed.

    I got back in my car & headed off to my next service call listening to the rest of Newshour (which went on to other stories later in the hour). It switched back to NPR at 10:00am, but they hadn't yet switched to live coverage, so I didn't get much more information until I got to my next service call where they had on CNN's "live" coverage. It was shortly after the south tower collapsed & they were looping the video of that interspersed with live commentary. And then the North Tower came down. I remember I made 2 or 3 more service calls after that, but they don't really stick in my mind.

    As it turned out, I don't think there was any attempt to rescue people from the roof, and I don't think the extra time would have made any difference to that.

    They didn't have any way to cut away the clutter atop the towers so they could get in close enough to board people. And not enough helicopters to take even a fraction of them on board, even if they could have gotten all the New York National Guard's helicopters airborne in time.

    Best I can figure, the New York National Guard's helicopter assets are mainly based up at Albany International Airport. I don't think the New Jersey National Guard has significant air assets. They've got a Battalion HQ for the 1/150 AVN at Lakehurst, but I believe the line companies (who have the helicopters) are based in West Virginia, although I don't know if this was true before 9/11 or is due to post 9/11 realignments.

    1101:

    Heteromeles Perepgrines (alomost always) kill IN THE AIR, not on the ground ... the 320kph+ "stoop" is quite something.

    1102:

    Charlie Stross @ 1072:

    "As it turned out, I don't think there was any attempt to rescue people from the roof, and I don't think the extra time would have made any difference to that."

    They had maybe 40-50 minutes at best ... but with the building burning under the roof I'm guessing no sane helicopter pilot would want to risk getting close to those thermals. Or adding the extra weight of a chopper (a couple of tonnes minimum) on top of a building that was already clearly overloaded. And you can't raise people very fast with winches.

    It wasn't thermals. The problem was there was no way to clear away the clutter from up there. The FDNY did consider if they might get someone in there to cut the antennas down so helicopters could be used. They decided it was beyond their capabilities.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5l3szbpBcEk

    You would need volunteers willing to stay on the roof to organize the evacuees into chalks.

    Anyway, they ran out of time before anything could be organized.

    No one ever accused dustoff pilots of being sane. If there had been ANY way to get in there through the roof clutter, they would have tried. You don't have to put the weight of the aircraft on the roof, just hover in close enough contact for people to scramble aboard.

    I knew pilots who flew medivac in Vietnam and they told me about flying into clearings where the opening was smaller than the diameter of the rotor. No biggie. A UH-1 will still fly missing the last 3-4 feet of the rotor blades if the pilot's really good.

    And only the best, most determined pilots were chosen to fly dustoff.

    1103:

    It is. I've seen it. They do kill pigeons. The idea that, in a city, a peregrine will target a particular racing pigeon among all the other birds available? I doubt it. There are easier targets.

    1104:

    David L @ 1087:

    Most building these days tend to have multiple levels of car parking under them, so having to go 20 metres to find bedrock could be an advantage.

    The World Trade Center then and now has shopping, subway stations, food, etc.. under the buildings. I was there at the end of last summer and there's a huge shopping mall about the size of an outdoor football (either version) stadium between the buildings. Think of an iceberg. Only 10% visible above ground. One end of it takes you to the new tower(s) the other end to the subway station complex in lower Manhattan.

    Manhattan has a very low ratio of cars to people. Plus spending $100 / day for on demand parking keeps the numbers down. Less by the month.

    This image from Wikipedia gives a view of the parking structure under the North Tower as it was when damaged by the 1993 truck bombing.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_World_Trade_Center_bombing#/media/File:WTC1993_BlastDamage.png

    It's a story worth considering, because it seems the intent of that 1993 conspiracy was to topple the North Tower into the South Tower.

    Yousef's plan was that the North Tower would fall onto the South Tower, collapsing them both. The tower did not collapse, but the garage was severely damaged in the explosion. Had the van been parked closer to the WTC's poured concrete foundations, Yousef's plan might have succeeded.[18] Yousef escaped to Pakistan several hours after the bombing.
    1105:

    The Headline News channel didn't have anything about it during the time I stayed there.

    CNN and HLN were out of Atlanta back then. (And maybe now.)

    The 3 big "free" networks were all in the last hour of their weekday morning shows. These are/were run out of studios in NYC. So they all switched to the disaster and then their news operations took over. Much of the video done by pointing a camera out a high south facing window in their mid town HQ building.

    With similar things happening in Wash DC but there it was a bit more chaotic as many were wondering how many planes might still be coming after the Pentagon was hit.

    My mother-in-law was headed out the door on the way to visit her husband's grave site at Arlington. She caught some of the reporting on TV and decided to stay home in Laurel MD. Which turned out to be a good call that day. If she had left home 1/2 to an hour earlier she would have been at the grave site when the plane went over at about 300' with a view of the crash site. Ugh.

    1106:

    "Pigeons can average 60 mph, so if you have a homing pigeon that's flying that fast across a city, it's unlikely to stop and hard to catch, compared to pigeons feeding on the ground."

    Or it sees the pigeons feeding on the ground, and decides to go and join in.

    Then it follows them home. To my place. So it flies in the window of someone who both likes pigeons and has the technical interest and kit to be interested in the weird thing on its leg, take it off, take it apart, and post a web page saying "hey, look what I found" with photos, circuit diagrams and memory dumps. Which will probably be obscure enough that it's been read by every search engine spider and archive crawler going several times before any actual human sees it, and there'll be cached copies all over the place.

    Since the idea was to use the human social aspects as a cover for passing messages secretly, passing messages by the pigeons themselves is a certain way to blow that cover. Sooner or later someone will meet one of the pigeons and find out about it. Just as every now and then there's a story in the paper about someone finding one whose payload is interesting more from the point of view of chemistry than physics.

    1107:

    IMHO, there's little point in impeaching .45 again, since at most it will cost him a few weeks. It would also tangle up the transition more than it would already be mangled.

    Except the scenario, as suggested by OGH, was that in the election Trump wins and remains in office, but the GOP loses the Senate.

    So the reason for impeaching him again is because at that point he has another 4 years...

    1108:

    I'm not even happy using the word "flaw" to describe it. I just don't know a better word.

    On September 10th, 2001, it was an "unknown unknown". Thereafter? Not so much.

    That is: it's a failure mode that is vanishingly unlikely in normal life, but that can emerge as a result of hostile action. Arguably, it is no more the architect's fault than the failure to build nuke-proof bomb shelters in suburban homes is the property developers' fault -- it's a specification error, not a design error, and nobody envisaged that particular contingency arising, and it's probably better dealt with the way we deal with it today (lockable cockpit doors, quick reaction air defenses, everybody knows you don't let the hijackers get to the controls or you probably die) than by redesigning the building code.

    1109:

    Last year I read an autobiography of a forward air control pilot in Vietnam (Naked in Da Nang). Interesting chap, and not a job for cowards: flying a slow unarmed fixed-wing aircraft over a battlefield.

    In it he told of riding along with a Loach crew to see what their job was like. They flew along a trail below the canopy until they couldn't go further, then had to back the helicopter out to a clearing.

    I think this link should take you to the right section:

    https://books.google.ca/books?id=0GXLAqz6iY4C&pg=PA188&lpg=PA188&dq=loach+forward+air+control'&source=bl&ots=vP5yPy4N8n&sig=ACfU3U1fTB1VAF7rbdOwYFaOCcNgRlGPZA&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi175PRnJvqAhUOAp0JHcgiCR0Q6AEwE3oECAoQAQ#v=onepage&q=loach%20forward%20air%20control'&f=false

    (Page 188 if it's at the wrong section.)

    1110:

    If you've got time to bed in your network, you set up a false flag op: a wildlife study of feral pigeon behaviour in that city, which explains the GPS trackers strapped to a bunch of pigeons.

    The data on the card that you're smuggling is steganographically hidden under the filesystem layer the GPS is writing to, and you creatively mislabel/misformat the card so that what is actually a 1Tb card appears to the uninformed to be, say, 16Gb.

    There's even a README on the card saying, "Hi! If you find this, it's part of a wildlife research project. Please return the card to us at [dead letter drop] and we'll send you a £25 Amazon gift voucher."

    Unless your pigeon is murdered right under the nose of a counter-intelligence officer, the card will get delivered to your lost and found officer, the finder gets a £25 gift voucher, and nobody needs to know nuthin'.

    1111:

    Semi-autonomous racing quadcopters. Fast enough, certainly manoeuvrable enough, able to carry a small explosive charge or maybe Pigeon-crack?

    1112:

    At 9:05am they switched over to BBC Newshour and the announcer said something about an accident with a small plane hitting one of the towers in New York

    I was working from home when I got a phone call, around 1pm (UK time) from a friend.

    This friend has called me about three times and told me to "switch on the TV -- any news channel". He's an old school phone phreak and he means business.

    The first time? It was the Concorde crash at Le Bourget. The third time was a certain space shuttle disintegrating during re-entry. The second ...

    I turned on BBC News 24 just in time to see a re-run of video of the first plane going in. Then, a few minutes later more footage of the second plane doing into the other tower. Then updates on the other two flights, the Pentagon, the disappearance of Flight 93, and so on. You know how it went. I was glued to the TV for about four hours.

    I remember some time during it phoning my sister, who was doing ordinary everyday stuff around town. She thought I was talking nonsense or describing the plot of a technothriller until she got home and saw the news: it was too bizarre to believe in.

    I think I was in shock for the next 2-3 days.

    1113:

    I got the same kind of call from my father about 6:30 am Pacific Time in the U.S., just as I was getting ready to take my son to school. I turned the television on and like you, spent the next several days in shock.

    In retrospect I wish I'd waited until the kid was at school. He was six years old and I probably wasn't as reassuring as I should have been.

    1114:

    Depends on the situation, but there are certainly situations where the bird will fly directly home. It won't work for holding a bird for weeks, but homing pigeons have been used for emergency messages for a very long time.

    1115:

    I read a partial autobio of a slick pilot. Given time to get slick pilots and choppers to put them in, and they'd have done it.

    I mean, it's not like not-quite-landing while under weapons fire to medevac someone, it was only a burning building.

    Note that in normal times, I'm not sure there's a single one of them without severe PTSD.

    Fuck, I was at dinner with half a dozen people during a Philcon, maybe 14 years ago, when a friend had a flashback. Afterwards, I was back in my head to 1979, sitting with a fan-friend who was a nurse, passing a bottle of wine back and forth, the two of us sitting there saying all the demonstrations we'd been to, but there must have been fucking SOMETHING either of us could have done that would have ended that horror even one day earlier.

    There wasn't, of course, but....

    1116:

    I was home, having been laid off the last day of July of '01. Still recovering from chemo, not four years after my late wife dropped dead. Living with someone at the time, and I was on the couch, and she turned on the tv to watch the coverage.

    I got nothing. Sorry, I was so numb from everything else, it never got in deep.

    1117:

    I think that might work. However, your lost and found officer is the weak link, if they know who mail the package to within the network.

    One fix is that the L&S office is hired through cut-outs to check the mailbox, send out Amazon gift cards, destroy whatever got turned in with a sledge hammer and post a video of the destruction through suitable blinding, so that no one can tell who's seeing the video, if anyone.

    That would freak out any authority checking the system, but would make it harder to find out what's going on.

    You just have to have a way to either insure that someone doesn't copy the payload before it gets destroyed, or make sure that it getting copied doesn't particularly matter.

    1118:

    as it was when damaged by the 1993 truck bombing.

    I'm pretty sure that that incident ended a lot of public parking under big and/or important buildings in NYC and elsewhere.

    1119:

    Until the pigeon gets knoced-off bya tower-dwelling Peregrine falcon & someone notices the message on the remains of the pigeon's leg through their tower's windows

    My back yard bird feeder has become very popular. And it is in an open back yard with no trees within 40'-50'.

    Falcons/hawks have noticed and show up every now and then scattering all the other birds.

    Plus I now see 2 or 3 rabbits at a time plus some chipmunks at times. And 4 to 5 squirrels will forage at the bottom through the bird discards or sit on a post and stare trying to figure out how to jump 20' through the air to catch a better meal.

    1120:

    Re: 'Just a few loose threads ... '

    Plus:

    EC (1040): 'It means giving lectures, saying what you know is a pack of lies.'

    Moz (1050): 'BUT neither of them is allowed to tell anyone what they've found out, and have to deny it if anyone else seems to be heading in that direction.'

    Yes - agree - to some extent mostly about the politics. But there's more to everyday reality than politics.

    Such as ...

    (a) Even if you try to bury that idea, you have zero control over someone somewhere else coming up with that same idea including if that idea is earth-shattering just like evolution -- Darwin & Wallace. (There's probably a tech name for this type of convergence of evidence maturing into theory but I've no idea what it's called.) There may be other examples.

    (b) The US/UK do not have a stranglehold on science/math - no country does. Neither does any one 'august' science/tech panel of academics. Or journals. Knowledge has diffused to the point where it's probably no longer possible to put any one piece of knowledge in a box and hide it forever. At most you might delay its promulgation a bit. And if you sit on it too long, you risk losing a potential security/financial/prestige advantage once this knowledge seeps out. As for completely new math, how about Srinivasa Ramanujan - untutored/self-taught and completely brilliant. Ironically for this particular comment series, this guy out of nowhere came up with a new approach to figuring out primes. (For some reason, I've felt for quite some time that primes and factorials are related. Probably wrong but ...) How many different cultures on different continents came up with counting, math over the course of human history? And how many of these counting/math approaches can be interchanged/understood via the other's math? (I'm guessing: math is a fundamental mental construct/emergent property across most species probably from reptiles and up.)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramanujan_prime

    (c) Some people will not listen to or be threatened by authority esp. wrt to knowledge. Or they're just plain unaware/incapable of/oblivious to authority outside their domain therefore will just continue to play with an interesting puzzle. (For some reason Dirac pops to mind - his biographer mentioned he might have been on the Asperger Spectrum. Yeah - AS and math/sci geeks - who da thunk it! Then there's Schwarzchild who came up with some really interesting math smack in the middle of a WW1 battlefield. My non-sci/techie understanding is that Schwarzchild's Equation considerably expanded the range/conditions under which Einstein's GR operated.)

    (d) On-going 'mathematization' of other sciences - esp. the newer Kavli Prize sciences that are known for having crazy-large data sets, i.e., neuroscience, nanoscience, and astrophysics. Discovery of whatever math/coding you might want buried could still be eventually found by accident in some other data-dense scientific field.

    (e) Etc. -- Random chance, bad actors, ET/Cthulu shows up, and so on.

    Anyways - always interested in learning others' POVs, and with this bunch, I'm pretty sure I will esp. re: any flubs. Especially interested in learning about other 'coincidental' math/science discoveries from cultures other than NA/EU.

    1121:

    you get out into the community, start keeping tabs on promising kids who show an aptitude for pure maths early, and then apply carrot and stick: ensure they get scholarships

    That's great for the obvious ones, but is going to lead to a lot of "whatever happened to..."

    I grew up ~15km from a little shack on the side of the road outside a tiny agricultural village in a funny little country on the far side of the world. There's a plaque outside it saying "Rutherford was born here". He had a normal-ish schooling by the standards of the day, invented a widget that drew the attention for the foreigners and was scholarshipped off to Cambridge with a {please look after this bear} note round his neck.

    That is in a way exactly what you're describing, but it also means that a bunch of people would wonder where he went and what he's up to. Him saying "oh just boring work for a defense contractor in the USA" would raise eyebrows in the smart people in Aotearoa, but anything else would require publications or other signs of productive genius.

    Trying to stop another Ramanujan appearing out of some obscure little place that barely has internet access, drops a few wild theorums on a website, then crawls off to die somewhere... that's a whole different game. The first the USA is likely to know of him will be when those theories are published.

    1122:

    And there's that guy like the one my daughter baby sat for back when. He would be about 20 now.

    He would score very high on an Asperger type scale.

    He taught himself to read at the age of 3. A standing instruction to my daughter was to not let him go off and just read the phone book. Which he liked to do. They wanted him to do something with his reading other than lists of numbers.

    His parents were very smart and psychologists and worked hard to give him an upbringing that would allow him to fit into the world.

    1123:

    It does depend on a lot of variables, but the packet loss rate is likely to be enormous by computer standards (IIRC the guys who did a real life RFC1149 ping got about 25%). For emergency situations it can still be a useful method, since you can usually raise the probability that at least one packet will get through as high as you like by sending off multiple pigeons independently.

    If you're trying to keep an operation secret then what matters is to keep as low as possible the probability of any packets getting lost at all, and that's a lot harder to do.

    1124:

    Oh, cool, you're one of the ones who tested it? Did you publish?

    1125:

    give him an upbringing that would allow him to fit into the world.

    At the risk of channelling Greg, that's a tricky balancing act. On the one hand you want a degree of ability to interact with other people, just ideally without also making that the entire thing that the person does.

    I'm no genius, but I come from a family of people who are not good with people. Family gatherings are fraught, not least because they involve a group of people who do focus very well focussed on "being social". Many of the women do that by "organising" and I've regularly been organised to within an inch of my life. The men tend to "wander round and talk to people" (viz, deliver short random snippets of small talk).

    A big focus on "you have to be social, which means being prepared, then on the day being organised, and this is how you do that". Which charitably is a bunch of lessons in "how to cope with people" laid out for people who don't deal very well with people. Even knowing that didn't make it a lot of fun to actually experience.

    "Aspergers" is all very well as an individual diagnosis, but what's the plural form?

    1126:

    "Unless your pigeon is murdered right under the nose of a counter-intelligence officer, the card will get delivered to your lost and found officer, the finder gets a £25 gift voucher, and nobody needs to know nuthin'."

    Nope - again, this fails if the pigeon meets me. On multiple counts...

    I don't give a toss about gift vouchers so they are a completely useless motivation. In fact I recently had a letter in the post offering me exactly your reward for the same trivial effort. I stopped reading it when I got to the bit where it mentioned the gift voucher. The same lot sent me another one a couple of days ago and I didn't even bother to open it. Someone gave me a real live genuine £30 Amazon voucher for a birthday present and it spent the next three years lying forgotten underneath a dead laser printer. My arsability threshold is ridiculously high for anything of that nature (ie. anything you can come up with that looks more attractive still won't work).

    The wildlife research project thing doesn't automatically motivate me to hand it in. It motivates me to check out what this project actually is and whether its agenda or that of those running or funding it is likely to be positively or negatively oriented towards the welfare of pigeons in general. The presumption is that it's dodgy unless it can show otherwise, and the evidence would include that obtained from the pigeon itself as well as from looking stuff up etc. Whatever cover they had set up would need to have anticipated some really strange questions.

    Even if I did believe it, I still wouldn't just automatically send the card in. I'd want to see what data they'd collected. I'd dump the card and try to figure out the format. The most I'd be likely to do would be copy the data to another card and send them that. And certainly my interest would be piqued when I found the hidden sectors. I'd definitely try and find out what was going on with that.

    1127:

    Oh, no, it was some guys in Sweden I think. I read their website a long time ago (as in: nothing out of the ordinary in their photos being presented as 8bpp dithered GIFs). As I remember it packet loss was their biggest problem, next was the closely related one of wacko variations in transit time, and after that the awkwardness enforced by the stricture of following the RFC to the letter as opposed to updating the spec to reflect the advent of pigeon-portable computer storage media.

    1128:

    https://onezero.medium.com/this-35-keyboard-for-children-transformed-me-into-a-novelist-436a55370ee5

    Ha. Real author really uses a "keyboard with 4x80 char display, runs off AA batteries" per my comments above about a secure encryption device. Apparently you can (well, could) buy the shell of the thing I was talking about and with a bit of effort could probably kickstart one just like that... but with a hidden function :)

    1129:

    "And how many of these counting/math approaches can be interchanged/understood via the other's math?"

    In that regard it would probably be illuminating to dig up whatever was written by the guys who tried to connect with Ramanujan when he went to Cambridge. IIRC he had taught himself absolutely everything beyond basic numerical arithmetic. So not only was he using his own invented notation, he was using it to talk about his own methods in his own mathematical language. I don't think he had a direct or close equivalent of what we call algebra, but he did have his own tools that covered a volume of problem-solving space of comparable size, if different in extent. They had to try and communicate with neither a talking language nor a mathematical language, nor the writing systems for either, in common. It would be even more interesting to see what Ramanujan himself had to say about it.

    1130:

    "Aspergers" is all very well as an individual diagnosis, but what's the plural form?

    A "science fiction convention."

    1131:

    "Aspergers" is all very well as an individual diagnosis, but what's the plural form?

    I think it is properly Asperger's syndrome.

    As to your other comments, his parents were very aware of the situation and were working hard to raise him in the reality of the situation. Unlike some other similar situations I know of where one or both parents were in denial.

    1132:

    Nope - again, this fails if the pigeon meets me. On multiple counts...

    Are you claiming that you are representative of a wide swath of the population? Or even a narrow swath?

    Just asking.

    1133:

    Charlie Thank you. I'm all too obviously nowhere nearly devious enough .... SF writers on the other hand ..... @ 1112 I think I was in shock for the next 2-3 days. Yeah - at that point, I was working in Central London - someone came in from lunch at about 13.15 local time & said "Plane flown into World Trade Centre" - we all dropped what we were doing & logged into the web ... which got slower & creakier as the numbers of horrified watchers multiplied. I still have the newspapers from the following days, in a bag. In the space of a couple of hours the world had changed & we hadn't an effing clue what was coming next. "Unknown unknown" indeed.

    SS @ 1130 ( & Moz ) 😁

    1134:

    Usually true, but have a look at this. Not on the ground and the Pigeon was definitely being very silly, but not really in the air either. https://youtu.be/rFA-f4Fh3tA

    1135:

    Trying to stop another Ramanujan appearing out of some obscure little place that barely has internet access, drops a few wild theorums on a website, then crawls off to die somewhere... that's a whole different game.

    And that's actually the plot motor behind the scenes of GHOST ENGINE, which I really have to go back to work on some year soon.

    1136:

    Nope - again, this fails if the pigeon meets me. On multiple counts...

    Pigeon, with all due respect ... how many people in your neighbourhood are Just Like You in their interests and approach to life?

    (I'm not asking how many people you know who are like yourself, because we socialize selectively. I'm asking how many random dog-walkers, shop assistants, delivery drivers, pensioners, babies, and football fans are likely to see something on a dead pigeon and think "ooh, that's interesting" rather than walking past it or maybe chucking it in the nearest dumpster.)

    Frankly, the probability of a spy pigeon being found by someone like yourself is barely higher than the probability of it being found by the local SIGINT (Avian) Countermeasures Officer for your occupied territories administrative district.

    1137:

    Sinclair/Cambridge Computer Z88. 64x640 LCD display, BBC BASIC built in. I used one for several years to write code for other machines (ITV station, not much to do on the evening shift between breaks) and once rescued files off one for Glyn Worsnip who used his for writing TV scripts. The word processor was also a spreadsheet which made it very easy to write things that needed linked columns, programming with labels/code/comments or scripts with character/dialogue/camera. And for added security, take too long changing the batteries and it would wipe the volatile memory!

    1138:

    That's part of the myth, not entirely reality. He had access to (some) books, and there is a vast gulf between teaching oneself from books and developing something ab initio. Also, mathematics is not as uniform a language as most laymen think, and using a new one is unusual but not as exceptional as you might think. Hardy himself wondered what Ramanujan would have done if he had been formally taught beyond elementary level.

    The point of #988 was such people are incredibly rare - perhaps one a century, at most - they are to top mathematicians as those are to people like me. The best one I can think of in the 20th was Kolmogorov, and don't think he was.

    1139:

    Or you could run it on AA cells and plug it in to the mains brick while swapping them.

    The Z88 still has a twilight afterlife of sorts: you can buy refurbed machines and upgrade them to 512Kb of RAM. You can also install a new version of the OS that supports FLASH memory, and a couple of folks sell cartridges with 512Kb RAM and 512Kb FLASH. It maxes out at 1.5Mb of attached storage IIRC, but filesystem on FLASH makes it vastly more useful. And let's not bother mentioning the maniac who replaced the serial port with a Bluetooth chipset and wrote a serial i/o driver for it so he could use it with modern equipment :)

    1140:

    "then also arrange that once they've gone too far up a one-way career path, nobody else offers them a job (again: if you've got tentacles in their university department, you can do that)."

    You think brightest young mathematicians work in maths depts?
    Maybe, once. But these are not one-way career paths.

    I knew 3 very bright young mathematicians. They were friends.

    The third brightest bailed on his PhD, was a very early Yahoo employee, retired when he vested (as the other two were doing post-docs). Started working again a few years later as he was bored.

    The second brightest went tenure-track in maths at Princeton.

    But the brightest - who was very good indeed - runs a R&D team for a hedge fund.(technically it's not a hedge fund, but... it's complicated so let's call it a hedge fund). The pay is quite extraordinary.

    Financial maths has become a black hole that sucks in the best and brightest. And in the meantime computing has no shortage of good pay for solving hard problems.

    1141:

    I had forgotten to pay my electricity bill and EDF had replaced our main fuse with a teeny-tiny one so we could have lights but nothing else. My wife didn't check the mailbox so she didn't know about that, turned on the microwave and blew the fuse.

    I'd seen reports on the web about what was going on (BBC website falling back into pure text mode), got home and passed the evening listening to reports on a battery powered radio by flickering candlelight. Very anxiogène.

    1142:
    Even if you try to bury that idea, you have zero control over someone somewhere else coming up with that same idea including if that idea is earth-shattering just like evolution -- Darwin & Wallace. (There's probably a tech name for this type of convergence of evidence maturing into theory but I've no idea what it's called.) There may be other examples.

    Steam Engine time.

    1143:

    No domestic mains sockets on the transmission desk so I was stuck on battery power and fast changes unless I could persuade someone to take over for a few minutes. I keep being tempted to update some of my archaeological kit, I've got a Microwriter (chorded keyboard with a limited file system for documents) somewhere, and the Z88 surfaces every now and again. When the local tip and computer museum open again properly (I'm wondering if "trip hazard" counts as essential for the tip) I'll restart my clear-out and sort.

    1144:

    An old boss of mine, Noel Howard Jones was at one point a Microwriter salesman, swore by it. (Also sold photocopiers to Tamla Motown Records, among other amazing, fully documented, stories).

    1145:

    I am sure everyone will be happy to know that US regulators eased restrictions on what banks can do today, showing that even a measly 12 years is too long for our memories.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/bank-stocks-reverse-higher-as-regulators-ease-volcker-rule-jpmorgan-chase-rises-2percent.html

    1146:

    In September of 2001 I was attending grad school in Ottawa. On the evening of September 10th, 2001 my future wife and I were out for a walk downtown and ended up on the grounds of Parliament at around 11pm. On an impulse she pushed the 'doorbell' on one of the side doors, then when someone actually answered we ran off.

    That was pretty much the last time it was possible to do something to impulsive and/or silly at the House of Parliament in Ottawa, as by noon the next day there were barricades and armed police patrolling the grounds - which remain in place today to some degree.

    I spent most of September 11th watching the news in the student union building on campus, and going to my first couple of classes.

    1147:

    David L @ 1105:

    The Headline News channel didn't have anything about it during the time I stayed there.

    CNN and HLN were out of Atlanta back then. (And maybe now.)

    The 3 big "free" networks were all in the last hour of their weekday morning shows. These are/were run out of studios in NYC. So they all switched to the disaster and then their news operations took over. Much of the video done by pointing a camera out a high south facing window in their mid town HQ building.

    CNN had (has) a studio in NYC, even if their main studios & HQ are down in Atlanta. I believe CNN was able to go to continuous live coverage almost immediately.

    HLN (or actually HNN I think) ran two back to back half hour broadcasts repeating them three times - recorded live from 6am - 7am EDT, repeated 7-8, 8-9 and 9-10. I don't know how quickly anyone at CNN thought to update the HLN/HNN feed for the breaking news. The next live segment on HNN would have started at 10:00am.

    I stayed and watched long enough to get into the second half-hour segment (approximately 9:10am to 9:40am) and seeing it didn't have any updated news, I went back to the car to try to catch the live coverage on the radio. By then the BBC Newshour had moved on to their other stories and when 10:00am came around WUNC radio went directly into the Diane Rehm Show without even the normal top of the hour 5 minute NPR news update.

    Anyway, I didn't get any further live news about it (after the first report on the BBC Newshour) until I got to my next customer. I arrived there some time between the collapse of the South Tower (9:59am) and the collapse of the North Tower (10:28am). The customer had regular CNN on and they were showing repeats of the South Tower collapsing, but cut away to the North Tower as it collapsed.

    I don't remember much else about the day, other than I know I made several more service calls and didn't get back to Raleigh until well after dark.

    1148:

    whitroth @ 1116: I was home, having been laid off the last day of July of '01. Still recovering from chemo, not four years after my late wife dropped dead. Living with someone at the time, and I was on the couch, and she turned on the tv to watch the coverage.

    I got nothing. Sorry, I was so numb from everything else, it never got in deep.

    People have different situations and they react to these kind of tragedies based on those situations. There's nothing to apologize for.

    1149:

    If you want the sick/black humor pairing with that story, here's one from the current issue of the Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/coronavirus-banks-collapse/612247/

    The basic problem is a replay of 2007. Instead of Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs), which were outlawed after 2008, banks now have billions in Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs), which are absolutely legal and stuff and "not at all the same" as the CDOs. Really. Reportedly JP Morgan Chase is sitting on about $35 billion of these things at the moment.

    Instead of crappy home loans, apparently the problem is crappy commercial real estate loans. The coronavirus angle is that a number of businesses are realizing that their employees can work from home reasonably well, so they don't need the office space they'd budgeted for. Then there are all the businesses that support that office space, and all the financiers who were making (up) large profits through CLOs.

    So yes, it's just the perfect time to loosen regulations from the Great Recession. What could possibly go wrong, now that we also have a pandemic and growing climate change in addition to the War on Terror?

    1150:

    _Moz_ @ 1125: I'm no genius, but I come from a family of people who are not good with people. Family gatherings are fraught, not least because they involve a group of people who do focus very well focussed on "being social". Many of the women do that by "organising" and I've regularly been organised to within an inch of my life. The men tend to "wander round and talk to people" (viz, deliver short random snippets of small talk).

    I dunno. That sounds like just about every "family reunion" I've ever been to. My dad's family, my mom's family, my ex-wife's family ... a couple of family reunions former girlfriends dragged me off to.

    If you're not a socially adept person (and I definitely am NOT), every family gathering - your family, my family, the Manson family - is going to be like that.

    1151:

    "Frankly, the probability of a spy pigeon being found by someone like yourself is barely higher than the probability of it being found by the local SIGINT (Avian) Countermeasures Officer for your occupied territories administrative district."

    The probability of it being found by someone is pretty high, though. And they don't have to be exactly like me; the point is that {the set of possible inclinations which would motivate someone to respond in a way that breaks the cover} is extremely large, so even though the probability of any individual's inclinations being a specific member of that set is very small, the probability that they will be any member of that set is high enough that you've only had to assemble a group of 118 people to find someone whose inclinations are a member of that set.

    The wider point is that "aw fuck off, that can't possibly happen" is not a good approach to security. (Similarly to the point previously about the fallacy of relying solely on the strength of your cipher: that fallacy is strongly favoured by relegating all the "boring other stuff" to the AFOTCPH category.) Things that "can't possibly happen" actually happen all the time, and it's not at all uncommon for significant cipher breaks or divulgences of secret activity to occur because something considered AFOTCPH did. You have to be able to prove they can't happen, and one of the major difficulties is that while you may be able to do that for pure mathematical abstractions, it's thoroughly intractable for anything involving physical objects and bloody impossible for anything involving people.

    1152:

    That was pretty much the last time it was possible to do something to impulsive and/or silly at the House of Parliament in Ottawa, as by noon the next day there were barricades and armed police patrolling the grounds - which remain in place today to some degree.

    Then there was the day around 1980 when someone drove through the Central Experimental Farm inside suburban Ottawa. He noticed something ... odd ... about the plot of corn, and he went back that night. Sure enough, the corn surrounded a research crop of marijuana, and he departed with garbage bags full. The next day, the Farm installed fencing and guard towers.

    The point being that keeping a low profile gives you security as good as using top-notch protocols. I have other examples. Yes, the government has people who can break into my house: but those people are busy and will not be sent lightly. Owning pigeons (in Canada) would just attract attention.

    1153:

    Heteromeles @ 1149: If you want the sick/black humor pairing with that story, here's one from the current issue of the Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/coronavirus-banks-collapse/612247/

    The basic problem is a replay of 2007. Instead of Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs), which were outlawed after 2008, banks now have billions in Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs), which are absolutely legal and stuff and "not at all the same" as the CDOs. Really. Reportedly JP Morgan Chase is sitting on about $35 billion of these things at the moment.

    Instead of crappy home loans, apparently the problem is crappy commercial real estate loans. The coronavirus angle is that a number of businesses are realizing that their employees can work from home reasonably well, so they don't need the office space they'd budgeted for. Then there are all the businesses that support that office space, and all the financiers who were making (up) large profits through CLOs.

    So yes, it's just the perfect time to loosen regulations from the Great Recession. What could possibly go wrong, now that we also have a pandemic and growing climate change in addition to the War on Terror?

    That's the good news. OTOH, there's another article in The Atlantic that suggests it's not going to be a "Great Recession", but instead may be another Great Depression.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/second-great-depression/613360/

    1154:

    Actually, no. Overwhelmingly, most of us get along reasonably well.

    But then, I keep getting seriously annoyed at the "Asberger's Syndrome" diagnosis by non-medical-specialists, when it's actually folks who know a fuck of a lot, devoured not books but whole libraries, or sections of them, when young, and the ignorant "popular" kids who "knew" it wasn't "cool" to be a "grind", or "know that much about anything".

    Btw, I just adore the way the US claims to "highly value" education. (If they valued it any more, they, like the character in the Tom Smith song, would put spray sunscreen on their eyes to watch an eclipse.)

    1155:

    Really - he's just a vane on a feather of the population.... (he types, ->duck<-ing for cover)

    1156:

    Here's something exciting for our bio weenies:

    Remember the result from some years ago, about surgically cross-coupling the blood streams of a young rodent with an old rodent ? And the old rodent was rejuvenated ?

    There's progress ! Someone dispensed with the surgery. They just extracted half of the blood plasma from a rodent, threw it away, and replaced it with saline (etc). Young mice were unaffected by this. Old mice rejuvenated, in multiple ways:

    Summary in a Science blog, go halfway down.

    Berkeley news

    and the underlying paper.

    Interestingly, therapeutic plasma exchange (TPE) is already an FDA-approved process, for other purposes, so the researchers are planning a human trial. Can't wait.

    1157:

    [shakes head] Sounds like a family passing down bad psyches, or maybe two families that crossbread.

    Last (US) Thanksgiving, a friend of ours came, and brought a guy who had been crashing at her place, he having no regular source of income other than housecleaning. It was two of my daughters, my granddaughter, can't remember if one's husband came, one of Ellens and her husband, and us. Oh, maybe my recent ex's son, my stepson.

    The guy was shaking his head (yes, he has some psych issues), and saying he didn't understand it - no one was yelling at anyone else, everybody was friendly and happy. He said none of his growing up had ever been like that.

    1158:

    ARGH!!! that was supposed to be ->duck[less-than sign, folloed by a -]ing for cover.

    [[ I've fixed it for you. If you want an actual < character, you need to type &lt; - mod ]]

    1159:

    Then there was this. At least in the US. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TRS-80_Model_100

    It exploded into the universe of sports writers and in less than a year it seemed that every sports writer at every event had one in front of them. And almost anyone else who needed to type/write while out of the office.

    But they (Radio Shack) couldn't figure out how to make a following on and so it was a blip in the world of computing.

    1160:

    We'll have to check with our people who have sensory tentacles adjacent to Silicon Valley...but I think aging tech billionaires getting blood transfusions with young blood has been a thing for awhile. Nothing vampiric about this at all, just another business deal.

    1161:

    The point of #988 was such people are incredibly rare - perhaps one a century, at most - they are to top mathematicians as those are to people like me.

    A friend who has a Phd in math would talk about Newton in awing terms. He commented that Newton got to working on calculus problems (after inventing it) that post docs find hard today.

    But not so much in "glowing" terms. Newton also had some serious mental issues. Which sadly seems to be common in these once in a century types.

    1162:

    True enough. Worries about another depression have been floating around since April.

    It's interesting, for Greenspan-screwing-up-in-2007 levels of interesting, that Mnuchin's taking the brakes off right when that Atlantic reporter is warning there's a big bubble in the system. It's possible this is for deliberate profit of certain people. It's also possible that Mnuchin learned the wrong lessons about running the economy from his previous experience, and the threat's in his blind spot. IIRC, that's what snagged Greenspan and took us over that cliff.

    1163:

    That was pretty much the last time it was possible to do something to impulsive and/or silly at the House of Parliament in Ottawa, as by noon the next day there were barricades and armed police patrolling the grounds - which remain in place today to some degree.

    Lots of things big a little changed.

    My wife was in the call center that took the calls from the flight attendant just before the second tower was hit. She knew the people on the call. It messed with their minds for a long time.

    My wife and I and her 2 sisters all got married in the Ft. Mead Chapel (over a 10 year period) with the reception in the O club. We'll never get to visit to show our kids.

    We also used to shop at the Ft Mead Commissary and PX when visiting my mother in law. Quickly it became that we could only enter the base in her car with her driving. Then we couldn't even be in the car.

    And little things like you can't be out of your seat when flying into Washington DC on the last 30 minutes of the flight. Which meant for us the entire flight. (This one might have been dropped but we don't go that way anymore.)

    For anyone who doesn't know Ft Mead mostly exists for a while now to house the NSA.

    1164:

    JBS I'm no economist, but I have suspected that this could be AT LEAST as bad as 1929-32.

    1165:

    Some here talk about people are going to have to find new jobs. But where are those new jobs going to be located. My back of the envelope math shows about 1 million jobs in the US going away for 2 to 5 years or and many maybe forever in the travel and hotel industries alone. (These industries are going to look hard at how to automate things that were done by hand out of habit or work rules for decades.)

    Then there are restaurants/bars/pubs(for those in the UK). Many owners are saying they will not survive and expect that many people will just stop eating out for years. And if you've been a waitress for 15 years, what exact skills to you bring to work in another area?

    School teachers looks to be a growing market as many that are 50+ are looking at "why not just retire instead of mixing with a few 100 kids every day who might kill me". Of course this fall will be interesting (at least in the US) as school try and figure out how to open with more spacing which means more teachers and the rooms in many cases can't get bigger. The big fear of those running school systems is that many teachers will give notice just before the fall session starts.

    Oh, yeah, that mostly US thing about college sports. This is BIG money. $billions times X. It seems that most of the Power 5 schools are having issues with players testing positive or living with someone who tests positive. Which is making a shambles of starting college sports back up. The pro concept of quarantining players and staff just does not work in college.

    1166:

    Sports writer? Every freakin' reporter in the world wanted one, or bought one. It was hot for years. I think there was a followon, with more lines, but it was overtaken as actual portables became available, and the big boys had way more money than Tandy.

    1167:

    He was also an alchemist, and used way too much mercury, for real.

    1168:

    Correction: will be.

    Headline today: 1.5M Americans file for unemployment, more than expected. I read EXACTLY the same headline last week, I think (they were expect 1.3M).

    And TX, CA, and FL blasting through records on new cases....

    1169:

    Right. Jobs. And then there are all the HR folks who look at someone not right out of college, and say "you're too old" (or at least think it), and don't even put them in for a job.

    But you're right: the entire college sport industry has just collapsed, completely. Ain't gonna be... and the students will age out, and the new ones - how many more sports scholarships will there be?

    A good number of colleges are going to collapse, or massively restructure. And the businesses around them....

    1170:

    I'd go with your first option, if I had to bet.

    1171:

    And I'm curious. What about permanent, or at least for a few years, job losses in the UK/EU?

    Here in NC we have the 10 day long state fair. A hold over from the days of yore when farmers got done with their fields and could vacation in the big city. Still a lot of ag related stuff and rural folks coming in. But the biggest hit are all the local (to me) food vendors. They have their normal jobs during the year and use the fair to make their "spending money" by operating a food stall of some kind. Many can take home a profit of $10K to $50K for the effort of a few weeks before they go back to their job as a barber or similar.

    And the Texas State Fair in an entire month long huge event. Massive economics involved.

    I can't see these happening. Or at least safely so.

    2 winters ago I visited maybe 12 German Christmas Markets. I suspect the economics are similar. And the ability to spread a virus also.

    1172:

    There you go, shooting down my murder mystery pitch: "George Smileyclone, agent and pigeon fancier, uses his pigeons to run a sneakernet for moving sensitive information around Metroburbia. Someone found a dead pigeon and was killed mysteriously, police are investigating. Smileyclone plays detective, because his group weren't involved. He needs to know who else is in the sneakernet, and how badly his operation has been compromised."

    Not that I know anything about writing murder mysteries. But like FTL, the best use of a pigeon sneakernet may be in selling books and movies, rather than in real life.

    1173:

    School teachers looks to be a growing market as many that are 50+ are looking at "why not just retire instead of mixing with a few 100 kids every day who might kill me". Of course this fall will be interesting (at least in the US) as school try and figure out how to open with more spacing which means more teachers and the rooms in many cases can't get bigger. The big fear of those running school systems is that many teachers will give notice just before the fall session starts.

    That's what I did a few weeks ago (retired). I'm within spitting distance of 60, and didn't see any concerns about my health in the debates about when to reopen school going on in Ontario this spring. We routinely have kids being sent to school when they are ill. We couldn't enforce simple safety regulations before and I saw no indication that they would be taken any more seriously now. So I decided it was time to leave.

    1174:

    One that hurts a lot: folks working renaires. I know a good number, my SO knows more, and, oh, yes, both of my twins, and all three of her daughters were renfairies (long time ago, now).

    They're hurting.

    1175:

    whitroth Could you translate that into English, please?

    1176:

    We routinely have kids being sent to school when they are ill

    I don't know if the term is world wide, English speakers only, or just a US thing but the phrase "snot nosed kid" is truly reality based.

    Says he who raised two of them.

    1177:

    Sorry, renfaires. I thought that you had Renaissance Faires in the UK. In the US, they're all allegedly set either in the time of 'Enery the Eigth [g} or Elizabeth I. All the vendors, entertainers (musicians, puppeteers, etc) are in more-or-less 16th or 17th century garb (Lots and lots of us attendees wear garb as well) and have been taught this, um, er, sort of English accent*. Frequently there's a tilting field.

    Do look them up. They're fun.

    Renfairies are teenagers who like hanging out at the faires; they get to be friends with vendors or entertainers, get in free that way, and help out.

    • The one time my late wife and I took her mom, a Welsh war bride, to the Texas RenFaire, she did ask us what the accent the folks there was supposed to be....
    1178:

    I don't know what childcare arrangements or costs are where you are, but in the US, it could well be that the parents have no choice but to work, and what else do you do with the kids?

    1179:

    That just stars the conversation.

    Alternating days are discussed then it's pointed out that most working parents don't have an alternating day work plan. Or worse kids of different ages on differing days. For the last few months around here and in much of the US it has been dealt with by having most parents work at home. (Tempers are fraying. In so many ways.)

    Bus seating distancing means transportation budgets skyrocket.

    Spreading the kids and everyone out in the school buildings may mean taking over gyms and libraries and lunch rooms for class space. Lunches prepared and trollied to the classes.

    Sports may be an almost total no go situation. Especially the organized ones that make money off spectators. But that does free up the gyms for class space.

    Maybe instead of kids switching rooms, teenagers and up, teachers switch classrooms.

    All of this has a real or time cost that wasn't in anyone's budget. At all. And in the US all state and local tax revenues are down.

    And each decision has 2nd through 5th order effects on a system that has been operating in many ways unchanged for decades.

    1180:

    Re: ' ...such people are incredibly rare - perhaps one a century, at most '

    Rare but probably more common than one in a century.

    Even if such ability and creativity did come up only once-in-a-century based on a c1900 world whose population was 1.6 billion, this means that the actual incidence is closer to about 1 in 800 million. (Because one-half of all of the population under consideration was specifically and actively excluded -- female). Given that the current world population is 7.8 billion so there ought to be about 5 male math geniuses out there right now. Unfortunately females are still actively dissuaded from pursuing STEM in some places, but I'm guessing they'd probably contribute another 5 once-in-century math geniuses to the pool. What could you do with 10 hyper-creative math geniuses?

    Same goes for the once in several centuries people like Newton and Einstein - there should be at least a handful of comparable minds around right now somewhere on this planet.

    What we really need to address is opportunity. Once opportunity equalizes/opens up, then we'll be better able to find these creative geniuses. Could come in handy.

    1181:

    I think aging tech billionaires getting blood transfusions with young blood has been a thing for awhile.

    Their medical adventurism is irrelevant, if this new result gets replicated (and works in humans). The initial claim is that this has all the outcome goodnesses of the earlier work. Plus, it's safer, and replacing some of my blood plasma with saline can be done for-cheap by literally thousands of reputable clinics, pick the one nearest you.

    The unanswered question is why it works. The articles speculate, but I'd like to hear people's opinions.

    1182:

    Edinburgh's Festival and Fringe has been cancelled. That normally runs for a month or so over August. It doubles the population of the city and brings in maybe 500 million quid (some claim it could be as much as a billion) in tourist money to pubs, restaurants, tartan tat shops, taxi drivers, AirBNB renters, hotels, telephone box owners etc. It employs a lot of temp workers as well. All that is not happening this year, the Powers That Be hope it might go ahead next year.

    1183:

    Bus seating distancing means transportation budgets skyrocket.

    One thing I think we're seeing in Sydney is fewer people going to work, but a lower proportion using public transport so road traffic is about as bad as ever. Which means we're not going to be able to have everyone back at work without going back to jamming trains full to bursting, because once you start talking about a "rush hour" that instead of being walking pace from 7am to 9am is from 5am to 10am you don't really have a "work day" any more, more like a brief stop at home for a shower.

    My boss spent about an hour yesterday explaining to me in a one-on-one meeting that he's still coming to terms with the idea of people working from home. Me pointing out that we have already done that, three months ago, and what's happening now is a slow return to a few people working in the office... well, it didn't penetrate, any more than the observable reality of people working from home did.

    Admittedly, and partly because of his attitude, some people did work in the office right through the "quarantine". The factory workers had at most a week off then were back with "social distancing rules" being ignored because they would be inconvenient (their mini-kitchen/break room is very small, so when you put even 10 people in there to sing "happy birthday" people are shoulder to shoulder. I'm sure they didn't do that until I heard it after we dropped back to normal this week*).

    But the good news is that I can work from home unless required in the office, for the foreseeable future. From the very pointed company-wide email last week it looked as though "ALL staff will be back in the office FULL TIME starting June 22" was aimed at me and the other two guys in my team who have been obeying the pandemic restrictions.

    • level one restrictions, anyway, which say "staff who can work from home should do so".
    1184:

    It's possible this is for deliberate profit of certain people. It's also possible that Mnuchin learned the wrong lessons about running the economy from his previous experience, and the threat's in his blind spot. IIRC, that's what snagged Greenspan and took us over that cliff.

    Well, if you were competent would you be working for Trump?

    I suspect, in addition to perhaps not believing it could be a problem (a lot of the GOP/Trump people are the "market is perfect and always right" sort), it is also a reflection of where we are currently:

    1) immediate boost to bank stocks - this makes Trump happy as he things Wall Street = the economy and thus thinks a booming Wall Street will help his re-election hopes

    2) more likely, one of many actions taken by those who know their ship is sinking. This makes the banks/Wall Street happy (good for those post-Trump job opportunities), and they won't be around to pick up the pieces when things collapse - and better yet if Biden tries to reverse this it feeds into the "DNC is anti-business" fallacy that the GOP can use to retake the Senate if necessary in 2022.

    1185:

    I don't know what childcare arrangements or costs are where you are, but in the US, it could well be that the parents have no choice but to work, and what else do you do with the kids?

    Well, I teach high school so the kid staying home is legal, and if they have an infectious disease it's what should happen. Instead, lots of parents send them to school anyway where they can infect 1500 others…

    I've seen it happen too many times to want to risk it next year.

    I've also seen a steadily-increasing number of parents willing to lie to get what they want. A winter holiday becomes a "religious holiday"* or "visiting a sick relative", for example. They try multiple stories until one works, and admin doesn't call them on the obvious bullshit. Again, don't want to risk my health — and I've seen too many dangerous situations covered up to avoid antagonizing parents.

    Maybe I'm being paranoid. My plan was to retire in 1-3 years anyway, so this is rushing things a bit but not totally changing plans.

    *We are not allowed to question these, and must accept the parents' word. If anyone knows a religion that obligates devotees to spend two weeks in Hawaii in February please let me know what is it so I can convert.

    1186:

    Oh, and a wonderful circling-the-drain discussion of the Bums In Seats metric (not using that term) because we have hourly staff as well as salaried and for stupid reasons everyone has to clock in and out. Well, had to until in February it became obvious that the smarter people had stopped fondling the communal pen and clipboard on which the signing was done.

    But the boss is still struggling with the mental habit of equating "time he can see me in the office" with "what he pays me for".

    So we had some more rounds of me saying I come in to the office to have meetings, get distracted by people talking to me, and to hang out with the boys drinking tea and making chips in the air fryer. If I get two hours programming done that makes it a productive day in the office.

    I haven't actually said that when I work from home I do that two hours programming and then stop...

    1187:

    The only thing I've skimmed on that was suggesting cleaning crap, broken cells, etc, out of the system.

    flush your radiator....

    1188:

    Ah, yes, modern MBA-style business.

    It used to be that if you were salaried, you didn't have to clock in and out, all you had to do was get your job done, and if you finished early, great.

    Now, you have to charge hours to specific accounts, and they NEVER, EVER want you to charge to overhead....*

    • Oh, the online training we give is for the client's benefit (including the how to use the timecard system to enter your hours, and how to....)
    1189:

    Maybe I'm being paranoid.

    I keep hearing that people are wearing masks out of fear. I guess it's fear when you are demonizing, and prudence when it is your way of doing things.

    That 2 weeks in Hawaii. Maybe you should scour one of the big tech calendar apps and turn on ALL the holidays and she what's up. EO trails the western Christian calandar by 2 or more weeks. Pope Gregory and all that.

    1190:

    That 2 weeks in Hawaii. Maybe you should scour one of the big tech calendar apps and turn on ALL the holidays and she what's up.

    What's up is simply cost - they can't afford to holiday during March Break when schools out so they go when things are (slightly) cheaper.

    1191:

    Or, in rarer cases, they are piggy backing on Mom or Dad's business trip to cut the costs.

    Which is why my parents did back in the 80s - Dad had a business trip to Europe, company paid for Husband and spouse to go, so they took my brother and I along and we got a trip to Europe for less than doing it separate.

    1192:

    I keep hearing that people are wearing masks out of fear.

    I have a colleague who "doesn't need a mask, because [she] takes essential oils". I went into the building today to clean out my desk and drop off my keys, and no one (admin and caretaking) was wearing masks, in a building they're in 5-8 hours at a time, with almost no ventilation.

    I wear my mask to protect other people. I know it won't do much to protect me.

    I feel nervous about trusting my health to people who consider Twitter a good source of medical information.

    That 2 weeks in Hawaii.

    I was being sarcastic. I know damn well it was a vacation. (Kid was telling their friends in class about the great hotel, wonderful beaches, etc.) Just as I know the "family emergency" was a ski trip.

    1193:

    Fear? Well, then, gee, soldiers in combat shouldn't wear flak jackets or helmets, because that would mean they're showing fear.

    And, probably, surgeons shouldn't wash their hands, or have sterile instruments when they cut into you, because that's showing fear.

    Right?

    1194:

    Re: 'They just extracted half of the blood plasma from a rodent, threw it away, and replaced it with saline (etc).'

    This procedure could address quite a few medical conditions.

    'Our data demonstrate that a single NBE suffices to meet or exceed the rejuvenative effects of enhancing muscle repair, reducing liver adiposity and fibrosis, and increasing hippocampal neurogenesis in old mice, all the key outcomes seen after blood heterochronicity. Comparative proteomic analysis on serum from NBE, and from a similar human clinical procedure of therapeutic plasma exchange (TPE), revealed a molecular re-setting of the systemic signaling milieu, interestingly, elevating the levels of some proteins, which broadly coordinate tissue maintenance and repair and promote immune responses. Moreover, a single TPE yielded functional blood rejuvenation, abrogating the typical old serum inhibition of progenitor cell proliferation.'

    Okay, I'm now waiting for big pharma/agra/'fish' farms to get into the GMO'd leeches specially designed to preferentially suck out blood plasma instead of whole blood. (Leeches Lite?)

    Plasma makes up about 55% of total blood volume. And the experiment involved replacing half of the blood plasma with saline, etc. That's a lot of leeches and replacement fluid in one sitting. Would be interesting to know if the same results/effects could be attained by exchanging a smaller volume on a regular, more frequent basis.

    At-home IV/saline drips are already in use for certain medical conditions so this might actually be possible.

    1195:

    There is apparently some research showing that regularly donating blood has health benefits. If Australia ever pulls its homophobic head out of its arse it'll probably be too late for me, I'll have aged out of eligibility. Oddly they don't consider "born in Africa" to be the same level of unacceptable risk as "man who has had sex with men" (or whatever they call it this week). But they have dropped the mandatory celibacy* period to a year {eyeroll}.

    • they don't consider being married enough, you have to swear you are not actually having sex with your husband.
    1196:

    Re: ' ... some research showing that regularly donating blood has health benefits. If Australia ever pulls its homophobic head out of its arse it'll probably be too late for me, I'll have aged out of eligibility.'

    Seriously? - I thought blood collection agencies (Red Cross, etc.) had grown up already about same-sex couples and just screened for medical conditions/risk.

    As an aside - wondering whether that article's publication helped increase enrolment in the below clinical trial. (Donate your COVID-19 plasma: Help save someone else's life! And, as a bonus, extend your own life!)

    https://www.nhsbt.nhs.uk/how-you-can-help/convalescent-plasma-clinical-trial/

    1197:

    Moz, Moz, Moz...

    If you're not in the office, how can the boss breathe down your neck (regardless of Social Distancing) to check that, even if what you're doing is utterly useless, it's company related useless. That's what matters.

    JHomes

    1198:

    Ah, yes, modern MBA-style business. It used to be that if you were salaried,

    Me thinks your view the past glasses are rose colored.

    I've seen such behavior from all levels of management. Even when the management was really just the worker told to organize things for the day.

    I think it is baked into the human condition. For most iterations of such.

    1199:

    Yeah, it's one of those "rational evaluation of risk" things that turns very quickly into "we cannot ever accept any risk from that sort of person". I use the "born in Africa" comparison because the risk is order-of-magnitude similar but it's not apparently acceptable to say "no {slur} blood" when the slur is racial rather than sexual.

    I could have sex with dozens of women and as long as I use a condom I can give blood. I might feel stupid putting a condom (on the whip?) while I'm disciplining my sub, but them's the rules...

    1200:

    I've seen such behavior from all levels of management

    Yep. In this case it's also partly driven by the boss not wanting to be explicit, or put any more work into managing people than he absolutely must.

    Right now we have a "team" of strong-minded individuals working on a new hardware project. What it should be is a generic chip with aws-compatable secure area and encryption copro, dropped onto a board that has all the simple IO stuff we use to make it a burglar alarm. So in month... 20?... the "team" is still arguing about chip architecture and whether rolling our own crypto code is better/cheaper/more fun than buying a chip with the copro.

    Right now the young guy from my team has a dev board from AWS and has written a few lines of code to make it do the necessary (MQTT, OTA firmware updates etc). But that uses too much data so the "team" is trying to decide how they can revise the MQTT spec to use less data (presumably they expect to also acquire Amazon via a hostile takeover and instruct them to release the "team" version as MQTT2)

    Management appear to be acting as observers rather than exerting leadership, so I expect that when the guy from my team gives up and drops out of that project they will continue arguing for their individually preferred CPUs until the company goes bust.

    1201:

    Oh, and my job is pretty secure - the industry turns over product very slowly, so what's out there now will stay out there and it's not unreasonable to expect that in 20 years time there will still be systems in use and someone like me maintaining them.

    Right now we have some of the first systems this company released 20+ years ago still in use and reporting (via POTS), and occasionally someone looks at the expansion header and goes "some of the pins don't connect but it will be fine", plus in an ethernet board then rings tech support to complain that it's not going online.

    1202:

    Pigeons: Andrew Vachss used a pigeon in the "Cross" short story - "Kidnap," not "Pigeon Drop" ;-> - and the appropriate "hits pigeons on the ground" Kestrel. :-)

    Working in Oz: Fortunately my lot worked out early on that having staff come in the office - any office, we also do outsourcing - was a recipe for disaster. For the foreseeable future it is still, "Do not go on site, any site, unless the task cannot be done remotely and is business critical." (Not sure what the NZ arm is doing, they were at the same level, but probably no longer.)

    1203:

    For the foreseeable future it is still, "Do not go on site, any site, unless the task cannot be done remotely and is business critical."

    Yep, it varies wildly around the place, even within some companies. An awful lot of people are just voluntarily ignoring any restrictions, I think with the great Australian "it's not what the law says, it's what the law does" and since the cops aren't executing people on the side of the road for violating quarantine restrictions they obviously don;t matter.

    I'm just grateful I can work from home, and travel off peak when I do have to go in to the office.

    1204:
    since the cops aren't executing people on the side of the road for violating quarantine restrictions they obviously don;t matter.

    Officer Rockatansky slacking off again.

    1205:

    https://theconversation.com/have-there-been-uncounted-coronavirus-deaths-in-australia-we-cant-say-for-sure-but-the-latest-abs-data-holds-clues-141363

    Latest stats suggest ~800 excess deaths in Australia in the three months to end of March, of which 100 were confirmed covid cases.

    I'll be interested to see what Aotearoa reports.

    1206:

    An awful lot of people are just voluntarily ignoring any restrictions,

    All of my clients have at least one person who is high risk of death or infecting dozens of such who are. Or in one case one of the partners lives in the rehabbed warehouse and is also at high risk. So observing quarantine is mostly done.

    1207:

    Moz Your "boss" all too clearly hasn't a fucking clue. Whereas here "the boss" - her workplace was very suspicious of "WFH" - went "OK, we'll have to try it - what alternative do we have?" Discovered that it worked & have now offcially stated that they are NEVER going to fill the office ( Over 350 people ) right up ever again - most people will come in to the office 1 or 2 days a week. I strongly suggest you very anonymously drop ypur idiot boss into it with the Authorities.

    There is apparently some research showing that regularly donating blood has health benefits. VERY interesting. I was a regular blood donor for may years, then switched to doing plasma donations. Had to give up because of NHS utter fuck-ups with when I could get to a clinic, but I have clocked up over 150 donations, total .... I'd start again, except I don't think they will take 74-yr olds?

    Meanwhile ... "UK government to buy share in satellite system" ( To replace Galileo from the horrid EU ) We WERE part of Galileo - until the Brexshiteers screwed that up - so we have wasted all that money & now we have to pay out - AGAIN for a 2nd-rate system ( "one Web" ) that might work? How typical.

    1208:

    I thought that you had Renaissance Faires in the UK.

    We don't.

    The nearest equivalent would be civil war re-enactor groups like the Sealed Knot (hint: the Wars of the Three Kingdoms, not the US civil war). Plus some WW2 re-enactors these days.

    1209:

    Discovered that it worked & have now offcially stated that they are NEVER going to fill the office ( Over 350 people ) right up ever again - most people will come in to the office 1 or 2 days a week.

    Cynical-me says that her employers are located in Central London, home to the highest real estate prices outside the Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo, and I'm betting they're not paying their employees an extra stipend towards the ground rent/mortgage on their home office. Right?

    Reducing office headcount now and making work-from-home permanent means that once COVID19 is over they can sell off a bunch of valuable floor space in the office and switch to hot-desking when folks need to be physically present.

    1210:

    The authorities here DGAF, and I don't think there have been any prosecutions. That's the main reason why so many people are ignoring the rules. I'm not sure a reporting mechanism even exists, or that there is any legal force behind the work from home comments.

    I know in Aotearoa they had to frantically patch the law because it wasn't entirely clear they could do what they'd done WRT the quarantine rules.

    I'm pretty sure my boss is in his 70's, or late 60's and looks old (he looks older than my stepfather who just turned 70) so he's definitely in an at risk group. He's also at risk because he's in the "idiots who ignore the quarantine" group... but as I said to him, I kind of admire his willingness to put his life on the line for his beliefs*. Even though I think his beliefs are stupid (he also believes that global heating isn't a problem). This is why, as he said "some people think I'm difficult to deal with".

    • but not his willingness to inflict those beliefs on others. He may think children are his enemies and should be killed, but acting on that makes him criminal in my view. Did I mention he has a new grandchild? Or "future climate refugee", if he gets his way.
    1211:

    Easily. Demand they install one of the 'team-working' programs that, inter alia, allows someone to watch what you are doing.

    1212:

    I would just like to note the potential of company-mandated workplace monitoring software for expanding the exposed attack surface of the company in question.

    (For non-infosec people: if your boss wants to monitor you through your work computer when you're working remotely, then if the software stack or protocol they're using has been compromised, J. Random Black Hat can also snoop on you. And if your boss is monitoring you, then presumably their boss is monitoring them, and so on. Hence all the angst about end-to-end encryption of conferencing systems like Zoom, about use of remote desktop protocols that require opening ports in home/workplace firewalls and sending packets over publicly accessible wifi or internet connections, and so on.)

    1213:

    Right :-) And, given the incompetence of almost all such managers and the software companies they favour, such an attack is likely to be well within the ability of J. Random Spotty Teenager.

    1214:

    Yes. Bleeding wasn't the wholly unscientific nonsense it was (and is) still claimed to be - but, as with all techniques that have some, limited benefit, human nature is to use them to tackle far more than they are useful for, and even to claim that they are 'solutions'.

    1215:

    These days you use the company computer to connect to the company VPN and the company IT professionals do their professional thing.

    Or so I hear from employees at professional companies.

    What I do is connect my home computer (Windows10, and runs the company anti-virus software) to the work VPN so my company virtual machine (Fedora) can connect to the various machines in the office that I need. The boss pays for nothing, but most of the spending is tax deductible where the commuting costs are not. Since I'm on about $8/day in train fares plus ~30km of bicycle riding working from home is a net saving (~$1 in electricity plus depreciation on the PC... which is unlikely to wear out before it ages to irrelevance since I mostly have it to play games). WFH has so many other benefits I'd be willing to pay a few dollars a day if that's what it took.

    My ex is in the professional situation, and somewhat amusingly shortly after the lockdown started was required to send photos and measurements of her "home office" (in a studio apartment!) to their HR people so they had proof she was complying with their health and safety requirements. She also is required to use the work VPN from her work laptop and may not put company stuff on her personal computer (that's not a new policy, BTW).

    The monitoring software stuff I don't think my boss is stupid enough to fall for, not least because persuading us all to allow it would take months of arguing/replacing staff who quit or were fired. I might bag out some of their stupidity, but several of my coworkers are aware they work in the IT end of the security industry and try to stay vaguely aware of current best practices.

    I'm also curious about just how well that software copes with stuff like multiple monitors, remote desktop, virtual machines and permutations of those things. Many of them don't play well with each other... running a remote X session from a linux VM in the office to another similar, viewing that via Windows remote desktop I get weird clipboard/file drag glitches (ie, very occasionally it works) and very frequently something shits the bed and I have to disconnect all the things and start from scratch. The good news is that I am very close to eliminating the last remaining headless VM that uses a GUI, because SSH works just fine thankyouverymuch (even silly things like SSH port forwarding from a remote database server through a VM and out to the Windows database GUI tool (because bidirectional reverse engineering databases is apparently something only Windows programs do. Well, at my price point, I have not looked at anything over ~$1000/seat/year)

    1216:

    such an attack is likely to be well within the ability of J. Random Spotty Teenager.

    When discussing attacks on our system my boss asked me (after I mentioned it) just how hard decompiling an android app is. I said I thought a smart six year old could do it, the trick would be motivating the six year old to want to do it. It's definitely easy enough for a geeky 12 year old to do, then work out what crypto we use (standard crypto library calls FTW), and craft packets that will get quite deep* into our system before being rejected.

    • in terms of total CPU spent on a typical packet because a lot of that is decryption
    1217:

    Seriously? - I thought blood collection agencies (Red Cross, etc.) had grown up already about same-sex couples and just screened for medical conditions/risk.

    Looking things up, last year Canada dropped same-sex restrictions to 3 months from 1 year - though again there appears to be no distinction from random sex and married sex (at least on the website).

    This is based on 2 criteria - first, the test to detect HIV doesn't work until 3 months after infection, and second male same-sex activities lead the number of new cases of HIV in Canada(**) - and while the overall number of HIV cases is low after the problem of HIV spread through the blood system in the 80s and 90s I assume they are very cautious about it these days - in part because the public needs to feel the supply is safe so they will consent to being given blood when medically necessary.

    But I am ineligible to donate blood because I spent more than 3 months in the UK in the late 80s and thus am considered a risk regarding mad cow (and while I don't know the scientific risk, the fact that residents of the UK and parts of Europe aren't all coming down with the human version would seem to indicate the risk is rather low).

    ** https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/documents/services/reports-publications/canada-communicable-disease-report-ccdr/monthly-issue/2018-44/issue-12-december-6-2018/ccdrv44i12a03-eng.pdf

    1218:

    Cynical-me says that her employers are located in Central London, home to the highest real estate prices outside the Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo, and I'm betting they're not paying their employees an extra stipend towards the ground rent/mortgage on their home office. Right?

    On the other hand the employee isn't paying very expensive commuting costs either.

    But it actually can be worse - at least in North America companies with work-at-home employees can take the cost of living where your residence is to pay you less - GitLab being one of the most open about it https://about.gitlab.com/company/culture/all-remote/compensation/

    So depending on where the employee lives, they could not only save on the office rent but cut the salaries as well...

    1219:

    Did I get this right?

    Big crowds at Bournemouth UK beach area due to "sweltering heat".

    I checked and it seemed the temp was getting up to a max of 69F/20.5C.

    Here in the US most everyone I know would not get wet if at all possible at those temps so as to avoid hypothermia.

    Just saying.

    I've been allowing the temp in my house to be around 85F/29.5C for June. I'm comfortable. Many I know would rather it be under 80F/26.5C but still.

    1220:

    Just more evidence that we're now living with Teilhard de Chardin's "noosphere" in addition to the biosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere, and all them rocks in the geosphere. The noosphere, for those who don't remember those hazy college bull sessions, is "a postulated sphere or stage of evolutionary development dominated by consciousness, the mind, and interpersonal relationships."

    Why do I say this? Because the noosphere is a primary driver in virus and host selection. Witness the inanity, insanity, political posturing, and psyops around wearing masks to slow the spread of coronavirus and social distancing. This appears to be the primary selection pressure on both SARS-COV-2 and who wants to get infected.

    For the virus, it's a stabilizing selective force. Right now the viruses there's no selective force favoring mutations to stay infectious, because The Stupid is provides ample opportunities for normal viruses.

    On the human host side, selection for who gets the illness in the US right has less to do with biology than it did. While notional race and poverty have been dominating in the selection of who's been dying from the disease, the right wing American segment of the noosphere seems to be trying to prove it's an even better host.

    Wonder what De Chardin would make of the present internet? I suspect he thought his noosphere would be a good thing when it emerged. Alas.

    1221:

    I checked and it seemed the temp was getting up to a max of 69F/20.5C.

    That seems to be today.

    Previous 2 days 30C+ based on these news reports

    https://metro.co.uk/2020/06/25/thousands-swarm-englands-beaches-day-before-temperature-record-set-broken-today-12900155/

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53165918

    1222:

    From yesterday, the Nate Silver/538 polling averages in the US Presidential Race (and his reminder, a snapshot, not a forecast)

    (all Biden leads)

    MI - +9.7 NV - +8.7 WI - +8.4 NH - +8.2 PA - +7.0 AZ - +4.9 NC - +2.8 OH - +2.5 GA - +1.3 IA - Tie

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1276126987334094848

    On the Covid front, the Texas Governor has partially reversed with a pause on further re-opening of the state, an order to pause elective-surgers in the 4 counties that contain the biggest cities, and an urging of Texans to use face masks.

    From the Philadelphia Inquirer, there might be a connection to face mask use and whether Covid is increasing or decreasing https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/covid-19-coronavirus-face-masks-infection-rates-20200624.html

    And (in part apparently using Facebook) anti-face-mask people are creating fake cards that look official for people to present to places requiring a face mask to claim that under the ADA they are exempt from any such rule.

    https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/fake-face-mask-exempt-cards-encourage-people-to-claim-disability-to-avoid-washingtons-mask-mandate/281-da8cc0b6-4a01-4c76-9e23-fc4999868ec2

    1223:

    Re: 'I'd start again, except I don't think they will take 74-yr olds?'

    Here's the current criteria for the UK:

    https://www.blood.co.uk/who-can-give-blood/

    'Who can give blood Most people can give blood. You can give blood if you: are fit and healthy weigh between 7 stone 12 lbs and 25 stone, or 50kg and 158kg are aged between 17 and 66 (or 70 if you have given blood before) are over 70 and have given a full blood donation in the last two years

    Coronavirus (COVID-19) advice Please keep donating, particularly if you are: black male O negative'

    1224:

    Big crowds at Bournemouth UK beach area due to "sweltering heat".

    To understand the relation between Brits and ambient temperature, you need to multiply the temperature in celsius by 2. We die of heatstroke in weather that you'd consider normal.

    Signed, sitting in Edinburgh in his underwear with the window open and a fan running, sweating and too hot to work, in about 19 degree summer heat.

    1225:

    Dressed a bit more. I could walk outside and not get stared at.

    Current temp inside temp for me is 85F/29.5C. I DO have the ceiling fan on. But feel just fine.

    All what we are used to. [smile]

    Yard needs to be mowed. That will generate a bit of sweat. But the relative humidity is only 37%. Last time I mowed it was 75%. That was tough.

    1226:

    Interesting. When I was a lot younger, I was excluded because I had had hepatitis as a child. When I was older, they were happy with that, as long as it was A (it was), but I was excluded because I was on hypertensive medication. Now, they are happy with that, but I am excluded because I am too old for a first-time donor!

    1227:

    Ok, though I know there are some SCA shires, at least, if not baronies, over there.

    1228:

    We set the a/c around 80F (26.4C).

    1229:

    Yes. Here, it was 30+ Celsius and 65% humidity. Once upon a time, I would have been happy to exercise or work (physically) hard in that, but I haven't done so in 3-4 decades, and am now not happy to do more than potter.

    1230:

    Um, er....

    Before there was an EPA, every single summer in Philly there was an inversion layer. If we were lucky, it lasted from early/mid July through late August. In the bad years, mid-June into Sept.

    I can remember in my mid-teens, lying in bad (3rd floor apt, block-long apt building, bay windows, a/c? What's that?) large fan in the window running, and it's too hot to sleep. Kids on the small street playing the radio (I remember Dusty Springfield's "You Don't Have To Say You Love Me"... temp over 32C, humidity over 80%, maybe over 90%.

    1231:

    Yeah, well it's 31C here (52N 0E), and the humidity is 50%

    We're not used to this heat. Contrarily, some years ago my wife and I took the Hurtigruten up the coast of Norway in January. We were well prepared, and when we went ashore in Trondheim, we were wearing heavy boots with ice spikes, heavy trousers, sweaters with arctic-rated parkas on top, mittens and scarves.

    So of course in the town centre we encountered local lasses heading home after a night in the clubs, wearing mini skirts and stiletto heels. My, we felt wimpy

    1232:

    That's just less than 67 degrees - right about where my heater kicks in! During the summer here in Southern California it will range between 30 and 45 degrees Celsius, only going lower than 19 degrees at night (if at all.)

    1233:

    I am looking at a 7000 btu aircon unit right now, despite the fact that it would be utterly ruinous to next months budget. I dont reaally need to eat, right?

    1234:

    That's just less than 67 degrees - right about where my heater kicks in! During the summer here in Southern California

    Decades ago when on a visit to LA I went to a comedy club. It was in the low 60s in March and I was in line with a wind breaker on. You could tell the locals. they all had parkas and gloves. :)

    1235:

    A windbreaker while it's in the sixties outside? You must be from one of those weird places where frozen death flakes fall from the sky!

    1236:

    Nah, if he was (or if he was a surfer), he'd be wearing shorts when its in the sixties.

    Admittedly, I was a little disgusted when my acquired Midwestern cold tolerance evaporated when I moved back to California. Alas.

    1237:

    Charlie ALSO: "The King's Army & The Parliament forces - who take it REALLY seriously. I gave myself away at a a Parliament re-enactement of the siege of Raglan Castle ( At the actual Raglan Castle: They had some swords laid out for inspection .. I picked 2 or three up & rejected them almost isntantly, got another onw, which had much better balance, made couple of trial moves .. . at which point one of the stewards went: "You've done this before haven't you?" We then had a discussion about the REALLY CRAP representations of swordfighting on the box & in films ... most entertaining.

    @ 1209 Well - from the front-of-office window, to St Pauls Cath is about 180 meters. Salaries are realtively high, because unlike many others in the same business, they only have the one big central office. Yes, they will be going to hot-desking, no, they won't be selling anyuthng, but neither will they be taking up rental of extra floorspace, which they were reluctantly just about do to do when C-19 hit. Everybody's happy - I think about 20 staff were furloughed, everYone else is still on full pay, the furloughed people are expected to be back in a month or so & the firm doesn't have to shell out for extra office space, & the employee's commuting costs just went through the floor: Win - win - win. Unlike, I may note huge other sectors of the economy, which are going take a ginormous hit

    @124 The Humidity is important - we are entirely surrounded by water - so, when it gets hot it also usually gets humid. - David L ... yeah at 37% - it's now well over 65% here, right now.

    And, quoting from Moz... These days you use the company computer to connect to the company VPN and the company IT professionals do their professional thing. Or so I hear from employees at professional companies.#Which is what she is doing - noe of her "work" is actually on this computer.

    David L No, it's bollocks - but yesterday it got to over 30°C outsdie with umiditiy at least 65% or higher - I was out in it & it wasn't funny.

    mdive Query: NJ - New Jersey / NV - N Virgins / WI - Wisconsin / NH - New Hamps / PA - Pennsy / AZ- Arizona / NC - N Carolina? / OH - Ohio? / GA - Georgia? / IA - Indiana - yes? Talking of which ... DT is trying to get the ACA scrapped entirely, in the middle of an epidemic?

    1238:

    You must be from one of those weird places where frozen death flakes fall from the sky!

    I HATE being cold. But that means below 40F/4.5C. My 7 years in Pittsburgh were miserable. The cool summer seemed to only last a month or so and the winters ... Ugh.

    I'm fine out in 90F/32C up to 100F/38C even if it's humid. But if working I can deal with the heat but am one of those that gets to change his shirt every few hours to reduce the weight of my clothes. Especially if the humidity is 70% or higher.

    1239:

    They are US state postal abbreviations, so you were close:

    NV - Nevada IA - Iowa

    https://www.bls.gov/respondents/mwr/electronic-data-interchange/appendix-d-usps-state-abbreviations-and-fips-codes.htm

    The list is of what is considered to be some of the swing states in November.

    Talking of which ... DT is trying to get the ACA scrapped entirely, in the middle of an epidemic?

    Yes, though one does also need to be aware that this isn't new - the case before the Supreme Court, which DT is taking a position via an opinion of the DOJ - has been in process for number of years now and is simply finally reaching the court.

    1240:

    You got a grade of 80%. IA = Iowa NV = Nevada

    All of these states were in the 50/50 neighborhood last time or have switched big time in polling for this election.

    DT is trying to get the ACA scrapped entirely, in the middle of an epidemic?

    What pandemic? It's all a waste of time. A hyped non event by the D's to make him look bad.

    What he can't control (at least from a PR point of view) to his advantage can't be admitted to exist.

    1241:

    Heh, heh, wimp.

    I remember in '69, or '70 I think, a cousin of my first wife's came to visit from California. Philly. In January. She was wearing her heavy leather winter coat, also described by us as "nice light spring jacket".

    "Wow, SNOW!" (which she'd seen maybe four times in her life, late teens, like us). It had snowed a couple weeks before, and was grimy and dingy from the slush....

    1242:

    Re: 'Now, they are happy with that, but I am excluded because I am too old for a first-time donor!'

    Makes you feel special, don't it? Next year, it'll be geezers up to 90 can do a first donation provided they're not [... mathematicians/statisticians/compsci's?]. Actually I shouldn't mock them: as we're seeing health situations for entire populations can change pretty fast, also new learning, etc.

    I just checked in my area and the qualifications and donation frequency vary considerably with the type of donation.

    1243:

    "Too hot to sleep" for me is anything much over 16 celsius.

    "Uncomfortably cold" nighttime temperatures are when it drops below 5 celsius, i.e. cold enough for frost.

    1244:

    Sixties (fahrenheit) outside? That's t-shirt weather!

    1245:

    What pandemic? It's all a waste of time. A hyped non event by the D's to make him look bad.

    Of course the fact that GOP states are now in partial retreat (Florida/Texas closing bars to in person service, Texas closing rafting/tubing businesses and banning gatherings of more than 100) is going to burst that bubble.

    And Arizona and New Mexico have also decided to halt their reopening schedules.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/26/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html

    Hence Pence doing a task force briefing trumpeting "encouraging news" and trying to blame it all on more testing and thus denying the reality on the ground.

    And Barr is in more trouble, his actions with the NY AG has resulted in more scrutiny of some of his other actions - like replacing a US attorney in Texas.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/26/politics/barr-texas-questionable-ouster/index.html

    1246:

    Interesting, Unilever has announced they are pulling their advertizing from Facebook/Instagram/Twitter for the rest of the year.

    On Facebook they were the 30th biggest spender, with $42 million a year.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/26/tech/facebook-twitter-stock-unilever/index.html

    1247:

    Heteromeles @ 1172:

    There you go, shooting down my murder mystery pitch: "George Smileyclone, agent and pigeon fancier, uses his pigeons to run a sneakernet for moving sensitive information around Metroburbia. Someone found a dead pigeon and was killed mysteriously, police are investigating. Smileyclone plays detective, because his group weren't involved. He needs to know who else is in the sneakernet, and how badly his operation has been compromised."

    Not that I know anything about writing murder mysteries. But like FTL, the best use of a pigeon sneakernet may be in selling books and movies, rather than in real life.

    Maybe this can help cheer y'all up:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaSS2pFMkOk

    1248:

    ARRRGH! CV-19 found a YEAR before previous reports - study submitted for peer review. If correct, then, um, err - now what?

    1249:

    Figured.

    I actually had a pet pigeon at one point when I was in grad school. Bird learned faster than some undergraduates. I started by thinking they were aerial rats, and they are: smart, fast, and adaptable. And personable, cute, and weird.

    1250:

    Talking of which ... DT is trying to get the ACA scrapped entirely, in the middle of an epidemic?

    Probably another dead cat, which likely means something fugly will get announced in an hour or two.

    Does anyone not understand why I want him and his minions prosecuted persecuted to the fullest extent of the law after he loses the election? Clean, quick ends are not satisfactory in such conditions.

    1251:

    Dubious. The problems with SARS-COV-2 are:

    A) It's a SARS coronavirus, a type everyone was expecting to cause a pandemic. They've been watching for this for years. That doesn't mean they'll always immediately spot it, but that does mean that the ID community's been on the watch for it. 2) It has this bad habit of causing clusters of atypical pneumonias when it shows up. Again, clusters of atypical pneumonias are one of those things that hospitals monitor and report, so it's highly unlikely that it was in Spain for a year with no one noticing. III) Given how infectious it is now, I'm not buying that it could lurk in purely asymptomatic mode before exploding.

    What I can buy is that someone accidentally swapped vials when running the tests or accidentally contaminated a pipette or stock solution. That happens all the time. We'll see the gory details if it gets past peer review.

    1252:

    You should come visit California in August. We'll go jogging together! ;-)

    1253:

    A weak signal from March 2019 sounds to me like a contaminated sample, experimental error, or other false positive.

    A clear signal from December 2019 is entirely plausible -- we know it was burning in Wuhan by then, although it hadn't quite gotten the public health authorities' on an emergency footing, and the chance of someone from such a big city traveling to Spain are not low.

    1254:

    David L @ 1189:

    "Maybe I'm being paranoid."

    I keep hearing that people are wearing masks out of fear. I guess it's fear when you are demonizing, and prudence when it is your way of doing things.

    I wear one because it's a mandatory order and as far as I can determine is NOT an unlawful one. A good soldier learns to follow lawful orders. I'm a good soldier.

    1255:

    whitroth @ 1193: Fear? Well, then, gee, soldiers in combat shouldn't wear flak jackets or helmets, because that would mean they're showing fear.

    And, probably, surgeons shouldn't wash their hands, or have sterile instruments when they cut into you, because that's showing fear.

    Right?"

    No. Wrong. That kind offearlessness is just stupidity masquerading as macho bullshit.

    I'm reminded of a story I read about the RAF during WWII (Might have been in Reader's Digest "Humor in Uniform"). Someone posted a note on a Squadron bulletin board that read, Who's afraid of the Big Bad Foke-Wulf?" ... the first person to sign it was the Squadron Commander.

    Taking care of yourself isn't cowardice, it's common sense.

    1256:

    Charlie Stross @ 1208:

    I thought that you had Renaissance Faires in the UK.

    We don't.

    The nearest equivalent would be civil war re-enactor groups like the Sealed Knot (hint: the Wars of the Three Kingdoms, not the US civil war). Plus some WW2 re-enactors these days.

    Is that the one with Oliver Cromwell and the Round Heads vs the Cavaliers?

    1257:

    I wear a mask for the same reason a police dog wears a muzzle: so that I won't maim or kill someone by accident.

    Given who shares my quarantine bubble, I'm basically two, possibly three steps removed from a local COVID ward on any given day. So far we're all being careful and have stayed asymptomatic. But I want to keep it that way.

    1258:

    "A weak signal from March 2019 sounds to me like a contaminated sample, experimental error, or other false positive."

    Or possible a detection of the other coronavirus which seems to have conferred some amount of resistance in some populations ?

    1259:

    David L @ 1219: Did I get this right?

    Big crowds at Bournemouth UK beach area due to "sweltering heat".

    I checked and it seemed the temp was getting up to a max of 69F/20.5C.

    Here in the US most everyone I know would not get wet if at all possible at those temps so as to avoid hypothermia.

    Just saying.

    I've been allowing the temp in my house to be around 85F/29.5C for June. I'm comfortable. Many I know would rather it be under 80F/26.5C but still.

    Which brings me to another thought. Should Mega-Churches that teach the Prosperity Gospel be air-conditioned? Shouldn't they be acclimating their followers for where they're going to spend all eternity?

    I don't really know what the temp in my house is. I have a window unit in the bedroom (5K BTU?) that runs full blast for about 1/3 of the year. It's enough I can sleep under a sheet & a poncho liner. I can't sleep without some kind of covering.

    1260:

    Well, as long as we're doing this, the temperature and relative humidity here are almost always in the mid-80s, F and % respectively. Glorious! The coldest it's gotten in a year was 75.8 F one morning -- and it felt noticeably chilly.

    1261:

    Troutwaxer @ 1235: A windbreaker while it's in the sixties outside? You must be from one of those weird places where frozen death flakes fall from the sky!

    Not usually. Mostly it waits until after it hits the ground (or power lines or tree limbs) before freezing. It especially likes to lurk in those hidden little places where the road goes around a curve & kind of dips down just a bit so that most people have to tap the brake a smidgen to get around. It especially likes to lie in wait for big ol' lumbering school buses.

    Or it might decide to freeze into little tiny ice bullets before it hits the ground. Freezing rain or sleet. Take your choice.

    1262:

    Charlie Stross @ 1244: Sixties (fahrenheit) outside? That's t-shirt weather!

    If it's not overcast, windy & rainy. "Sixties (fahrenheit)" in California might be T-shirt weather. Here in North Carolina you'd probably want to put on a sweater or a light windbreaker.

    1263:

    If I wouldn't get infected, biting these maskless idiots doesn't sound like a bad idea.

    Of course, you're talking to someone who, back in the mid-nineties, working insane hours for Ameritech (one of the old Baby Bells), there were too many days where I got home, and literally pulled out of my shirt pocket three pieces of #2 pencil that I'd bitten into three, rather than bite some moron's hand.

    1264:

    On the other hand, NYC was the epicenter, not the west coast.....

    1265:

    Heteromeles @ 1249: Figured.

    I actually had a pet pigeon at one point when I was in grad school. Bird learned faster than some undergraduates. I started by thinking they were aerial rats, and they are: smart, fast, and adaptable. And personable, cute, and weird.

    We had one when I was a child. Wasn't really a pet, it just took up at our house one day. But it would let you get close enough to pet it & would even let you pick it up. And then one day it left to go about its pigeonly business.

    We also had a crow or perhaps a raven (some kind of larger black bird that was not a Maltese Falcon) who took up residence on our patio for a while ... same deal. It would accept petting and would sometimes consent to being held and then one day it joined a passing murder and flew away.

    Does it help if you know the background story behind the song? That it's a satire of the "method used by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service to control pigeon populations in Boston public areas during the 1950s."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Evening_Wasted_with_Tom_Lehrer#"Poisoning_Pigeons_in_the_Park"

    1266:

    Reminds me of a book some late friends had (before they moved to the country for a while) on So You're Going To Move To The Country, and included exercises such as, in the winter, staring at the power lines, waiting to see the ice forming on them, so you'd have an idea when the ice was going to break the line, at which point the power company would send out a truck, which would lose control on ice on the road, and skid into another power pole, knocking it down....

    1267:

    LINKS.... Suitable mathematicians (etc) for the security services? See this, maybe Half of imported C-19 in UK come from Pakistan here certain right-wing groups will be onto this in a flash .... Meanwhile, if you've come from France, you have to quarantine for 2 weeks, yessss ... Oh yes, the ban everything crowd, have now gone for Fisher - the mathematican - for understandable, but wrong "reasons". PLEASE NOTE: Fisher was utterly wrong in that area ... but to expunge him, given his other contributions is ... perverse. Same as I adore (with one exception) the Operas of R Wagner, but ... his racial views.... euw. Who said it was easy?

    JBS Yes ...but it's A LOT MORE COMPLICATED THAN THAT 2 if not 3 civil wars in three/four countries. There were many "royalists" who were very unhappy with CharlesII & many Parliamentarians who were against ChI execution ( Most notably Fairfax, who was a better General than Old Noll )

    1268:

    Bugger - bad typo. Charles I in both cases .... Chas II was another person entirely & much better news.

    1269:

    More longevity/rejuvenation related news -

    This time it's about the brain, specifically, Parkinson's Disease.

    Overall incidence of PD in the US (2020) is estimated at about 1 million - but this disease/condition wrecks a lot more lives than just the folks' diagnosed with it.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2388-4

    'Reversing a model of Parkinson’s disease with in situ converted nigral neurons

    Abstract

    Parkinson’s disease is characterized by loss of dopamine neurons in the substantia nigra1. Similar to other major neurodegenerative disorders, there are no disease-modifying treatments for Parkinson’s disease. While most treatment strategies aim to prevent neuronal loss or protect vulnerable neuronal circuits, a potential alternative is to replace lost neurons to reconstruct disrupted circuits2. Here we report an efficient one-step conversion of isolated mouse and human astrocytes to functional neurons by depleting the RNA-binding protein PTB (also known as PTBP1). Applying this approach to the mouse brain, we demonstrate progressive conversion of astrocytes to new neurons that innervate into and repopulate endogenous neural circuits. Astrocytes from different brain regions are converted to different neuronal subtypes. Using a chemically induced model of Parkinson’s disease in mouse, we show conversion of midbrain astrocytes to dopaminergic neurons, which provide axons to reconstruct the nigrostriatal circuit. Notably, re-innervation of striatum is accompanied by restoration of dopamine levels and rescue of motor deficits. A similar reversal of disease phenotype is also accomplished by converting astrocytes to neurons using antisense oligonucleotides* to transiently suppress PTB. These findings identify a potentially powerful and clinically feasible approach to treating neurodegeneration by replacing lost neurons.'

    Combine this with the blood plasma research findings, that's quite a bit of the body covered.

    • 'antisense oligonucleotides' - had to look this up ... seems that this type of molecule/compound is already being studied for cancer therapy. IMO, this is great news because it means at least two different sets of disciplines (POVs) examining how it works, and maybe faster progress in both areas.

    Also good SF/F fodder - another part of the brain's neuro-chem that can demonstrably be manipulated. At least in mice, for now.

    1270:

    The UK does have reenactments of the US War of the Rebellion battles -- as does Germany -- not sure about France. Just like England, Ireland and Scotland have lots of CSA themed bars, and even in homes across the countries there are CSA flags and on their lawns, alas.

    For one example, go here:

    https://acws.co.uk/aboutus

    [ "The ACWS is the largest American Civil War re-enactment society in the UK. Members are drawn from all walks of life and come from all parts of the country. The society is essentially a nonprofit making organisation and attendance at events by members is on a purely voluntary basis.

    Over the years we have helped to raise money for various charities acting as the focal point for shows. We have attended fetes, carnivals, stately homes and organised events all over the country." ]

    1271:

    Thanks. I'm not upset, and if I don't know "Poisoning Pigeons in the Park" by heart, it's pretty close. Occasionally I'd hum it in grad school on the way to giving an exam.

    Thing is, when you get a bird with a broken wing, keep him indoors, and after a few years, he thinks it's funny to hide under the bed chuckling, ready to charge out and peck your bare feet when you put them down...Or come into his room and find that he'd tipped a stack of books onto the paw of the cat that was reaching under the door to snag another tail feather...or when you watch the same bird stand on your PC keyboard, and when shooed off (he could fly, weakly), push ctrl+alt with one foot and delete with the other, rebooting the machine as he left...Well, you develop a bit of respect for the bugger.

    He also liked to stand on the return key and peck the delete rapidly, as he'd learned which keys made the display do interesting things. There were a couple of things he did that I where I never did figure out how he did it (open another iteration of a program from within itself five times?). I finally had to turn the keyboard upside down when I left the room to keep him off it.

    They may have a brain the size of a peanut, but they get full use out of it. I've got a lot more respect for pigeons than I did before he fell into my life.

    1272:

    Re: 'Bird brain'

    Never had a pet bird but do enjoy watching them.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/06/bird-brains-are-densewith-neurons/

    I think the tech analogy might be electron tube vs. transistor.

    1273:

    "PLEASE NOTE: Fisher was utterly wrong in that area ... but to expunge him, given his other contributions is ... perverse."

    And most of us are fans of HP Lovecraft's contributions to literature, which many would also find perverse. Sometimes there are people who, for better or worse, can't be cancelled; one just has to note that they were effed-up and move on (hopefully without giving them any money...)

    1274:

    My mom had a parakeet for a while.

    Sorry, I prefer a fish tank.

    1275:

    I just have chickens, which are notoriously stupid.

    We've had all sorts, the current senior being Houdini because when she was young she took great pleasure in being outside whatever enclosure she was put in. She didn't appear particularly interested in what she could do outside, more like she regarded fences as evidence that the other side was better. She will not be picked up, and is very good at running away if I try.

    I even have a stupid chicken, Irma. Because she's prone to standing there shaking her head confusedly as if she's going "Irma chicken?" She's one of those 90% bantam things bred to look cute and fluffy. But when frightened will run into walls or just in circles. Will also look at food and pause for several seconds before pecking at it. Easy to pick up but does not like it as far as I can tell.

    We've had chickens in the past who would run through the vege garden to get to the snails on the side of the water tank, and chickens who would get into the vege garden specifically to dig up every new seedling (we dug there so there must be food, right?), and every chicken did that bird thing of taking one bite out of each edible thing then moving on to the next.

    The current babies are feathered and more or less teenagers. I've handled them most days from when they were born so they can be picked up and petted. They like climbing the frangipani tree next to the gate and just hanging out in that hidden in the leaves. So I walk into the pen and there are clucking noises at head height. They get down the obvious way... mad flapping and squacking, with a "glide ratio" (flap ratio?) of about one in four. That was a bit of a shock the first time. OTOH they can jump/fly on top of the feeder/shelter, so when I'm doling out treats theirs go on top of that and the elderbeasts get treats at ground level (babies get chased away from elderbeast treats, that's what 'pecking order' means).

    1276:

    I'm convinced that the tissue of a bird's brain is much better, ounce for ounce, than a human's brain tissue. (Particularly among crows and parrots.) They can maneuver in three dimensions (without going through Star Fleet academy) and are very smart animals generally - usually with brains the size of a pinto-bean!

    1277:

    ARRRGH! Interesting, but not conclusive. Sentinel surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater anticipates the occurrence of COVID-19 cases (June 13, 2020, PDF) All samples came out to be negative for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 genomes with the exception of March 12, 2019, in which both IP2 and IP4 target assays were positive. This striking finding indicates circulation of the virus in Barcelona long before the report of any COVID-19 case worldwide. Could be a sample contamination. (or as Charlie, Heteromeles say, some other error.) It is possible that there was an undetected endemic close-to-SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus circulating at low levels (providing some immunity in some individuals to SARS-CoV-2, as Poul-Henning Kamp suggests), that acquired a talent for using ACE2 and TMPRSS2 for cell entry inside some human body (i.e. became respiratory entry, but a vascular virus) (say) late 3/4Q 2019, then e.g. through a short chain infected a superspreader in Wuhan.

    For amusement purposes only, sci-fi scenario, lightly redacted: Was Donald J. Trump Patient Zero? That trip on November 16 2019 to the hospital? COVID-19 ministroke or ischemic stroke[4], or arythmias, and possible a related high blood pressure crisis, maybe a month plus after the recombination[2] to SARS-CoV-2 took place in his body.[1] TheyHe then infected one or more young soldiers who ... games in Wuhan ... Wet market visit ... Vendor infected, vendor was a talented superspreader.

    Motive? [[evil laugh]...[it didn't work!!!]]

    [1] This aspect gets a little ... arcane. :-) [2] Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 through recombination and strong purifying selection (29 May 2020, sciencemag) [4] Pathophysiology of SARS-CoV-2: targeting of endothelial cells renders a complex disease with thrombotic microangiopathy and aberrant immune response. The Mount Sinai COVID-19 autopsy experience (May 22 2020, not yet peer reviewed)

    1278:

    I think it's more like the difference between building a circuit on an ordinary flexible 2-dimensional circuit board and then wadding it up to fill the space, and building it by soldering the parts directly to each other in a 3-dimensional lattice.

    1279:

    Pigeon vs cat... I had a fledgling pigeon once and someone brought a kitten round. As soon as the kitten was put on the floor, the pigeon opened both wings wide and charged at it squeaking madly. The cat instantly turned round and legged it, and shot under the bed; the pigeon then stood guard at the end of the bed making sure the cat didn't come out again.

    I also remember the pigeon that liked to sneak up on a sleeping cat, deliver a good hard peck in the belly, and then take off vertically just ahead of the vertically-leaping cat. So there'd be this kind of sudden whoomph behind the sofa and a pigeon and a cat shooting vertically upwards with accelerations of opposite signs, doing an impression of an empty rocket stage separating.

    I've mentioned before the pigeon that learned how to drop a shit on my head while he was on the other side of the room.

    1280:

    How conspiracy theories emerge—and how their storylines fall apart (June 26, 2020, Jessica Wolf) "One of the characteristics of a conspiracy theory narrative framework is that it is easily 'disconnected,'" said Timothy Tangherlini, one of the paper's[1] lead authors, a professor in the UCLA Scandinavian section whose scholarship focuses on folklore, legend and popular culture. "If you take out one of the characters or story elements of a conspiracy theory, the connections between the other elements of the story fall apart." Which elements stick? In contrast, he said, the stories around actual conspiracies—because they're true—tend to stand up even if any given element of the story is removed from the framework.

    Brings to mind a description called Occam's duct tape: The opposite mental process to Occam's razor — avoiding simplicity and making as many (potentially) unnecessary assumptions as possible — is sometimes referred to as Occam's duct tape. [2]

    [1] Long paper, looking at Bridgegate and Pizzagate as examples. (American conspiracy narratives.) Still digesting but seems interesting at first skim. An automated pipeline for the discovery of conspiracy and conspiracy theory narrative frameworks: Bridgegate, Pizzagate and storytelling on the web (Timothy R. Tangherlini, Shadi Shahsavari, Behnam Shahbazi, Ehsan Ebrahimzadeh, Vwani Roychowdhury, June 16, 2020) We hypothesize that three features—a single domain of interaction, a robustness to deletions of nodes and relationships, and a proliferation of peripheral actants and relationships—are key characteristics of an actual conspiracy and may be helpful in distinguishing actual conspiracies from conspiracy theories.

    [2] via Oh Look It's The 'Paul Is Dead' George Floyd Conspiracy Theory :( (Doktor Zoom, June 24, 2020)

    1281:

    "If it's not overcast, windy & rainy."

    Charlie lives in Scotland...

    I don't have a thermometer, but I estimate it's been around 30C today on the basis that it's been just about bearable as long as I don't increase my bodily heat production by any kind of exertion, such as coughing.

    Where I live has a really very pleasant little micro-climate. This is about as hot as it ever gets here, then when we're on the other side of the orbit it rarely snows even when there's loads of the crap twenty miles in any direction. It's so close to ideal that it seems churlish to complain about the occasional excursions beyond tolerable limits for a few days at either extreme.

    1282:

    "I am looking at a 7000 btu aircon unit right now"

    Yeah, what the fuck is it with air conditioners quoting their heat transfer capacity in that fucking stupid unit? It's about two and a third kilowatts in real units - at least "divide by 3" is close enough once you know about it, but for fuck's sake, really. Heaters are in kilowatts, after all, which makes it even stupider.

    But, anyway, from the low rating I'm guessing it has to be one of those "portable" things. I had one of those before I moved here. There is something important you need to know about them.

    They're shit.

    Running continuously at full pelt in a room 5mx2m it couldn't get the temperature below 33C (according to its own display). Goodness knows what it was outside but it can't have been that much higher since it was in England, even if it was in a stagnant bowl in the hottest part of it.

    That was after I'd fixed the most truly mind-buggeringly stupid deficiency in its design: its lack of an external air intake for the heat rejection circuit. Instead it drew the air for that purpose from inside the room and pumped it outside... so it was then of course replaced by outside air making its way in through whatever cracks and crevices it could find. Outside air which is of course already too hot, otherwise I could just open the window and not bother with an air conditioner at all.

    The fix was to gaffer tape a cardboard box over the rejection circuit air intake and run a second piece of ducting from the box to outdoors in parallel with the exhaust ducting, with the outside ends arranged so that the hot exhaust does not get sucked back into the intake.

    The condensate drain channel from the evaporator matrix used to gradually block up with purple sludge which grew in it. Not only was there no way of taking it out to clean it, it was so deeply buried you couldn't even see it existed, so you had no way of knowing a problem was on the way until the level of the of un-drained condensate got high enough to spill over the edge of the channel at its lowest point. Directly underneath that point was the motor run capacitor for the compressor. The can of those capacitors has a deep crimped rim around the terminals and it was mounted with the terminals facing upwards. So the spilling condensate was caught by the rim and held in a little puddle immersing the live terminals...

    If the weather was unpleasantly hot but not bad enough to overstretch its feeble capacity, it would after much effort eventually manage to haul the temperature down to 18C, at which point it was just starting to get comfortable. And at which point the bloody thing would switch off. There was no way to set the thermostat any lower than that or to cut it out altogether. And it wasn't even a real 18C, because the sensor was mounted in contact with the evaporator matrix so it was cooled below ambient by conduction.

    So the next step was to reposition the sensor so it does detect the real temperature. This led to the discovery that they had mounted it on the evaporator matrix deliberately as a shitty bodge to cover up another piece of shitty inadequate design. The fan motor hauling air through the evaporator matrix was cheap-arsedly underspecified and was not capable of hauling air through it fast enough to keep the matrix temperature above 0C. So the condensation would freeze and block the matrix and stop the thing working entirely for an hour or two until you turned it off and let it thaw out. The inappropriate sensor positioning had been an attempt to deliberately limit the cooling ability so you didn't find out they hadn't put a big enough fan in it.

    So the fix for that was to make an air flow sensor out of 1N4148s and bog roll tubes that would cut the compressor out when the airflow began to fall off.

    And then to replace the thermostat with an ordinary bimetallic central heating thermostat that didn't bottom out at 18C - although it did have 5C of hysteresis, which is ridiculous; fortunately I was able to reduce that to about 1C by means of the sealed adjusting screws (which shows that the replacement thermostat was yet another thing that could have been made OK but was deliberately made badly instead).

    Still, that last was something I had already been meaning to do for some time, since the original thermostat was not a simple analogue dial, it was some microcontroller-based piece of shite. So it didn't just plain switch on and off according to the temperature, in fact that was one thing it didn't reliably do, but it did do all sorts of stupid annoying things all of which resulted in it not being switched on when I wanted it to be while doing absolutely nothing whatsoever that was any actual help.

    About all you could say for it was that it was a little better than not having one at all, but not much. Trouble is anything actually effective costs a bleeding fortune and needs holes hacked in the wall and stuff to fit it, which left me with the piece of shit as the only available option.

    1283:

    Oh, btw, saw this cmt on a sarcastic website, for when Scotland leaves the Union: rebuild Hadrian's Wall, and make the British pay for it.

    Did I mention I saw that Scotland got the go-ahead to the next step towards building a spaceport?

    1284:

    Don't know about the rest of the world but in the US (and thus I suspect Canada) BTUs are the standard for all heating / cooling systems. Plus all the calculations that deal with building heat loss and such.

    100 years or more of habit most likely but changing now would just create cost and confusion for those in the industry.

    Plus it would remote a reason for all of us to buy a mobile app to calculate all those unit conversions.

    1285:

    in the US BTUs

    You lot know what BTU stands for though? Subjection to the might of the British Empire, bending the knee to the Queen of England (and sundry lesser places), acknowledging your heritage as a prison outpost where convicts were dumps, all that good stuff.

    Here in Australia, bastion of the Commonwealth, upholder of the Empire, we use kilowatts because we like the metric system. It's so simple even Australians can cope with it...

    1286:

    Of course.

    But as I said, 100 years or more of habit most likely but changing now would just create cost and confusion for those in the industry.

    I remember when Canada went metric. On my many visits at the time it seems like it was a close call that the PTB didn't get strung up by the people opposed.

    Switching an entire industry (and we're big enough to matter) in today's environment just isn't gona happen.

    Besides our brilliant rejection of metric back in the 70s/80s should be considered a great idea. All the extra economic activity it has generated since in terms of all the extra diversity of tools, bolts, screws, etc...

    Just think of all the shelf space at 1000s of stores and warehouses across the US that would not be needed if SAE bits were a trivial part of the industry. And how many less tools I would personally not have.

    And if you can't see the sarcasm in all of this, well, look harder.

    1287:

    And it is possible that there was such an apparently similar virus that did NOT give even partial immunity.

    1288:

    I think that you need to lie down in a dark room for a bit. You might as well say that using zero in arithmetic means bending the knee to the Moorish conquerors.

    I agree that using BTU in a largely metric environment is silly.

    1289:

    Did I mention I saw that Scotland got the go-ahead to the next step towards building a spaceport?

    At what point in the process do they move the country closer to the equator?

    1290:

    Pigeon There are lots of these ( Wierd local microclimates ) all over the UK Rixkmansworth, notorious for frosts in June, Ayr-to Stevenston - where it almost never snows ( WHich is why Prestwick airprot is there ... ) Some of the SW-facing valleys in Cornwall & on the W coast of Scotland, which are almost temperate rainforest .... Dry (relatively) hollows in odd places ( Vale of Eden f'rinatance )

    whitroth Oh dear - usual problem: Hadrian's Wall is nowhere really near the Anglo-Scottish border, excep at Carlisle .... And, if you want to take the boundaries of the ancient Kingdom of Northumbria into account, it's even worse.

    EC Not so - the moors introduced/translated the discovery of Zero, IIRC, from what we now call India 458-500 CE.

    1291:

    ... Scotland ... spaceport?

    At what point in the process do they move the country closer to the equator?

    Maybe they are planning to specialize in polar orbits?

    1292:

    You might as well say that using zero in arithmetic means bending the knee to the Moorish conquerors.

    Well, since you mention it... yeah, I do think the US should bend the knee to their moorish conquerors.

    But I'm sure that just as they measure water volume in acre-feet, they will continue to use zero despite their racist preferences. Although the idea of a certain person refusing to use this "black maths" and insisting on the traditional (Babylonian?) form does seem like fun. After all, if the Queen's English was good enough for Jesus Christ... *

    1294:
    Yeah, what the fuck is it with air conditioners quoting their heat transfer capacity in that fucking stupid unit?

    Yeah, they should be rated in tons, that makes much more sense.

    1295:

    JH Metric tonnes? Imperial tons? "long"tons? "short" tons? Or even Tuns - a measure of beer volume .......

    1296:

    That would be "tons ice", a widely used unit of energy for industrial HVAC.

    1297:

    Or even Tuns - a measure of beer volume .......

    That makes sense. How much beer can this thing keep cool? :-)

    1298:

    Re: 'Occam's Duct Tape'

    Ironic how the top [editor's] comment on this Wikipedia article is:

    'This page contains too many unsourced statements and needs to be improved.'

    1299:

    I remember when Canada went metric. On my many visits at the time it seems like it was a close call that the PTB didn't get strung up by the people opposed.

    Despite going metric Canada still has some old stuff around - first example, food advertising and grocery stores all still give prices per pound for meat/produce (with the /kg in small print to satisfy the rules I assume) - though we quite happily price deli meats by the 100g.

    Switching an entire industry (and we're big enough to matter) in today's environment just isn't gona happen.

    Which is the second example - lumber is still sold in the non-metric units - you go out and by a 96" 2"x4", a 4'x8' sheet of plywood that is 3/4" thick, etc.

    Or our railways are still in the old units - in a large part because they need to interchange with the US.

    So Canada only went mostly metric.

    1300:

    For some reason I read that as "Occam's Duck Rape," and it seemed very funny to me... I think I'll have more coffee now.

    1301:

    Metric tonnes? Imperial tons? "long"tons? "short" tons?

    Oh come on. Everyone knows that AC capacity is measure in COLD TONS.

    1302:

    Which is the second example - lumber is still sold in the non-metric units - you go out and by a 96" 2"x4", a 4'x8' sheet of plywood that is 3/4" thick, etc.

    My lightweight understanding (based on a single TV show 15 years ago) is that in the UK it is the same due to them importing so much lumber from Canada.

    Corrections UK folk?

    1303:

    Polar orbits would work.

    I was wondering where the flat ground needed for a spaceport was located, myself. But if they could build a spaceport at Vandenburg, presumably there's some equivalent site...somewhere.

    Or perhaps an independent Scotland could buy one or more Vanguard-class ballistic subs from England and retrofit them as satellite launch platforms? Then they could get launched as close to the equator as desired.

    1304:

    Those Danish (?) floating ship transport things might work better. The sort of things that were used to transport the Russian Kursk and USS Cole.

    Size and all that.

    1305:

    Vanguard class boomers are ridiculously expensive to operate -- they consume about 2% of the UK annual defense budget, just to keep one at sea 24x7 on deterrent patrol (out of a fleet of four), never mind building their replacements (they wear out after 30-40 years).

    Also their rockets (Trident D5) are made by Boeing and are pretty expensive for their payload -- they're not really designed for satellites (the uppermost MIRV stage carries its warheads strapped around its middle, not on top, and there's no room in the launch tube for a big fairing).

    Finally, Elon Musk has kinda jumped the gun and begun design/build of floating launch platforms for Superheavy/Starship. Which are going to be colossal, with up to a 1000 knot boost if launched from the equator, and could conceivably launch with a smaller payload from the far north.

    Upshot: I think the only niches for the Scottish spaceport are (a) smallsat launches, (b) polar or near-polar orbital launches, and (c) sub-orbital tourist hops. Which is a limited market indeed.

    1306:

    Or perhaps an independent Scotland could buy one or more Vanguard-class ballistic subs from England and retrofit them as satellite launch platforms? Then they could get launched as close to the equator as desired.

    Or Darien Scheme II? I'm sure the Republic of Panama would be willing to talk about it. Of course, DS I didn't work out so well (unless you count its effect on the Act of Union getting passed as being good), but these are different times.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme

    1307:

    Working for British Gas 20 years ago we were quoting for new/upgraded gas supplies in cu.m and KW, with BTU and cu ft being a legacy mode to convert from. If the home of the BTU can adapt... There is no excuse...

    1308:

    food advertising and grocery stores all still give prices per pound for meat/produce (with the /kg in small print to satisfy the rules I assume)

    That's a fairly common practice in the US penumbra.

    See http://www.smrey.com/promociones

    1309:

    Foxessa @ 1270: The UK does have reenactments of the US War of the Rebellion battles -- as does Germany -- not sure about France. Just like England, Ireland and Scotland have lots of CSA themed bars, and even in homes across the countries there are CSA flags and on their lawns, alas.

    For one example, go here:

    https://acws.co.uk/aboutus

    [ "The ACWS is the largest American Civil War re-enactment society in the UK. Members are drawn from all walks of life and come from all parts of the country. The society is essentially a nonprofit making organisation and attendance at events by members is on a purely voluntary basis.

    Over the years we have helped to raise money for various charities acting as the focal point for shows. We have attended fetes, carnivals, stately homes and organised events all over the country." ]

    I suspect they may not know as much about the Confederacy as they think they do.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/confederacy-wasnt-what-you-think/613309/

    Several years ago I read a good book about reenactors, Confederates in the Attic

    At one point in the book he quotes someone about how difficult it is sometimes to stage the reenactments because everyone wanted to be Confederate soldiers and no one wanted to be the Union soldiers. Very difficult to stage an "accurate" reenactment of a battle (especially one where the Confederates lost) when you have several hundred wannabee "Rebs" and only a handful of Union soldiers.

    1310:

    whitroth @ 1274: "iMy mom had a parakeet for a while.

    Sorry, I prefer a fish tank.

    Never had a fish tank, but we did have a fish bowl (not to be confused with fish bowling).

    We had a parakeet. I caught it while walking home from school one day. Obviously it must have been someone's escaped pet, and the big wide outdoors world was just too much for it. So maybe it caught me.

    Mom had a Siamese cat, so the parakeet's cage was mounted high up on a wall where Ling Ling couldn't get to it, even if she climbed up on furniture to leap at it. I guess my mom must have given it away after I went off to college (to gain a little knowledge, but all I wanted to do was learn how to score). Anyway, I don't remember it being around after that.

    Thinking about it now, I don't remember it even having a name. We had a couple of dogs while I was growing up and they all had names and Mom's cat had a name, but I can't remember ever naming the parakeet or ever calling it anything but "bird".

    1311:

    Vanguard class boomers are ridiculously expensive to operate -- they consume about 2% of the UK annual defense budget, just to keep one at sea 24x7 on deterrent patrol (out of a fleet of four), never mind building their replacements (they wear out after 30-40 years).

    Really? I never would have guessed... It just seemed like one of those things a good EU neighbor would do for a newly devolved England. You know, buy up unaffordable military assets and repurpose them for peaceful uses, while giving the English economy a badly needed injection of Euros. Might also salve the pride of the English at losing Scotland, to take over a big expense like that. Or something.

    On a slightly less daft note--slightly--I'd propose getting Stratolaunch to build a hub launch system at the Edinburgh airport, using one of those honking big planes of theirs. I mean, launching satellites from planes out over the North Sea can't be all that bad, can it? We've been talking about launching stuff out of a Martian colony like that was trivial. Surely this is easier?

    1312:

    DIfferent topic: How does one go about deprogramming a MAGAt?*

    It's all very well if El Cheeto Grande goes down in November, but what do we do about his tens of millions of fevered followers? This isn't at all my thing, except that I live here, and we're going to have to figure out how to make nice with people who were perfectly happy to see people like me suffer or die. Thoughts from post-war Germany or the former Yugoslavia, anyone?

    *MAGAt aka redcaps, aka people who wear Make America Great Again hats and believe Agent Orange as if he was Jim Jones come again.

    1313:

    Never mind therms...

    That's exactly what got me. I remembered BTUs as being used to rate boilers in the 70s, but they were all in kilowatts now and had been for yonks. And they were only used where combustion was involved; electrical heating devices always were in kilowatts. Then I go to get an electrical cooling device and this weird ancient thing suddenly rears its head out of the mire and goes UUURRRRH at me with strands of Jurassic pond weed dangling from its jaws.

    ("Tons per hour", now you could argue that 1 of those = 0.01241777...ms-2 :D)

    1314:

    Bill Arnold @ 1280:

    How conspiracy theories emerge—and how their storylines fall apart (June 26, 2020, Jessica Wolf)

    "One of the characteristics of a conspiracy theory narrative framework is that it is easily 'disconnected,'" said Timothy Tangherlini, one of the paper's[1] lead authors, a professor in the UCLA Scandinavian section whose scholarship focuses on folklore, legend and popular culture. "If you take out one of the characters or story elements of a conspiracy theory, the connections between the other elements of the story fall apart."
    Which elements stick?
    In contrast, he said, the stories around actual conspiracies—because they're true—tend to stand up even if any given element of the story is removed from the framework.

    Brings to mind a description called Occam's duct tape:
    The opposite mental process to Occam's razor — avoiding simplicity and making as many (potentially) unnecessary assumptions as possible — is sometimes referred to as Occam's duct tape. [2]

    [2] via Oh Look It's The 'Paul Is Dead' George Floyd Conspiracy Theory :( (Doktor Zoom, June 24, 2020)

    So much stupidity exists in the world that it sometimes makes my head hurt. What kind of "Doctor" is Dr Winnie a doctor of?

    1315:

    Pigeon @ 1281:

    "If it's not overcast, windy & rainy."

    Charlie lives in Scotland...

    I know. Believe it or not, I've actually been to Scotland ... on a day when it was 60°F, and it was "overcast, windy & rainy"

    OTOH, I got a photo of a double rainbow over Stirling Castle, so it was worth it.

    1316:

    With steel, you get a weird mixture of proper metric sizes and sizes which are called "metric" but are actually standard imperial sizes converted to metric units, so you get things like 50.8mm instead of 50mm etc. It's a pain in the arse because people aren't always clear what they're selling and have an annoying habit of dropping the figures after the decimal point. Meanwhile everything else to do with mechanical engineering is proper metric; imperial sizes are still available, but they tend to have to be hunted out a bit, and they are quoted in inches, never as masquerading metric conversions. So you are always clear about the sizes of your bolts and bearings and things, but the sizes of the stuff you're making the associated structure out of are something you need to check carefully to make sure you're getting what you think you're getting. It's all too easy to buy something which you think has a dimension of 50mm and discover it's 0.8mm too large and it won't go together.

    With timber, the situation is more or less as for steel except that the dimensions are quoted to the nearest 5mm so the "metric" and "imperial" sizes are indistinguishable. You can buy a 2x4 or you can buy a 50x100 but they are the same thing. It's less of a problem than it is with steel since the overall tolerances of the design are much more likely to be loose enough to swallow the difference, but it can still catch you out if you're trying to replace a bit of wood in an old house with a new bit fitting into the same gap.

    1317:

    http://www.parabolicarc.com/2020/06/26/planning-approval-obtained-for-sutherland-spaceport/

    So, once Scotland's independent, and I finish my Famous Secret Theory and build my starship, I'll come land there... maybe I can flag it as Scottish.

    I think I can do a decent imitation Scottish accent....

    1318:

    Hadrian's Wall... but, if the British pay for it...?

    1319:

    Virgin are planning to use Newquay for their dropping rockets from a 747 scheme. Cornwall is a much nicer climate to hang around in between launches. There's also talk of their sub-orbital passenger flights setting off from there as an option, catch some waves while waiting for your trip.

    Not convinced there's a market for air launch orbital flights, Pegasus has managed 44 flights in 30 years but only 8 in the last 15.

    1320:

    My late ex, a naturist (and had been on the national board of one of the 2 national US naturist organizations) was part of a 9? 11? person lawsuit, back in the nineties, where the county of Brevard (where KSC is) was trying to enforced a county anti-nudity ordinance on a national seashore (Playalinda Beach). She told me at one point, I forget if it was a county council hearing or a court case, that one old blue-haired lady actually said, "If we were meant to run around nekkid, we'd have been born nekkid", and even the pro-ordinance commissioners shook their heads....

    1321:

    Rbt Prior 252 imperial gallons (303 US gal) = 1,150 litres Just over a tonne in other words.

    1322:

    David L @ 1286: Of course.

    But as I said, 100 years or more of habit most likely but changing now would just create cost and confusion for those in the industry.

    I remember when Canada went metric. On my many visits at the time it seems like it was a close call that the PTB didn't get strung up by the people opposed.

    Switching an entire industry (and we're big enough to matter) in today's environment just isn't gona happen.

    Besides our brilliant rejection of metric back in the 70s/80s should be considered a great idea. All the extra economic activity it has generated since in terms of all the extra diversity of tools, bolts, screws, etc...

    Just think of all the shelf space at 1000s of stores and warehouses across the US that would not be needed if SAE bits were a trivial part of the industry. And how many less tools I would personally not have.

    And if you can't see the sarcasm in all of this, well, look harder.

    Some random thoughts on "metric"

    The U.S. has "officially" been metric since some time in the 1790s.

    The U.S. Army was pretty much ACTIVELY metric before I joined the National Guard in 1975 ... I always carried a rifle that fired 5.56mm ammo (NOT .223). Every bit of land navigation I learned was in meters ... one mil = 1 meter at 1,000 meters (if you've got a compass with mil markings in addition to degrees). It's important in directing mortar fire.

    Every nut, bolt & fastener on my MGB is SAE standard except for an 8mm bolt in the synchronizing mechanism for the SU carburetors.

    When I was in high school a girlfriend's father gave me a beat up old Morris Minor. I'm still not sure whether that meant he liked me or not. All the mechanical bits on that were English Whitworth" ... although I didn't know that at the time. All I knew is that neither SAE or Metric tools fit, and no one else in Durham, NC seemed to know what it was either.

    1323:

    I agree, or else, how much bheer do I need to keep cool with what this unit does?

    1324:

    John Hughes @ 1294:

    Yeah, what the fuck is it with air conditioners quoting their heat transfer capacity in that fucking stupid unit?

    Yeah, they should be rated in tons, that makes much more sense.

    Long tons or short tons?

    1325:

    Oof. Hadn't seen them called redcaps before. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redcap

    Well, once we institute a national healthcare system, including mental and dental health, we'll need a lot of assisted living facilities for them.

    1326:

    To paraphrase the talking Barbie doll (who got tossed on the barbie in reaction), "metric is haaard".

    1327:

    How does one go about deprogramming a MAGAt?

    Not really needed. The major groups that vote Republican are all shrinking, due to a lack of youth recruitment. So in four years, a politician playing to that audience will be a couple of percentage points down from where things sit this year. That means fewer "red" states, across time. Well, fewer across a decade or two, or until Miami goes underwater, or whatever-it-is that triggers the next big political restructuring.

    1328:

    Re: 'DIfferent topic: How does one go about deprogramming a MAGAt?*'

    IMO, and without any handy crystal ball* ... I think this will have to be addressed on two equally important levels: emotion and evidence/logic. A lot of experts (who probably skew DEM) seem to operate as though emotions are irrelevant. Nope - emotions are part of being human. Ignoring emotions is in fact illogical.

    Anyways, as to the specifics ...

    Emotional appeal and emotional reasoning (data) that specifically addresses both common and individual fears that originally persuaded them to join that cause in the first place. This also means identifying many distinct groups of people who went MAGA and understanding their particular situations, needs, fears and aspirations**.

    Key emotional issue is mutual 'trust and respect' in elected and civil gov't. Trust and respect are earned and always have to be re-earned. Something that elected pols and some experts forget.(DT was/is completely anti-gov't esp. anything Obama and campaigned on mistrust, misdirection and belittlement of anything he didn't personally understand, i.e., almost everything.)

    Next, don't expect instant change.

    Stay honest and admit that screw-ups happen and when they do, adults/responsible people/gov'ts admit it and respond appropriately. Any perceived 'lie' will result in many steps back.

    Explore new metrics for assessing what a healthy population is and what a good gov't does. (The GDP is not an adequate metric for assessing the overall health of the electorate/population in the present era. It may have been okay-ish back when 'work' meant human muscle/skill and predictable muscle labor equated x number of acres harvested, but it's inadequate therefore obsolete when applied to many modern types of 'work'. Also, the GDP is production and trade - business needs, not population needs - and skews international trade and one-ups-manship.)

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/special-report-the-psychology-of-terrorism/

    • What does history say about this? The current US great political divide can't be the only time a country or ethnic group became this intolerant of their own people/neighbors.

    ** I'm assuming that there will be a few groups that will be unreachable via this approach but it will still be necessary to understand why they were persuaded to go MAGA.

    1329:

    I had a pet crocodile once, hatched from an egg my father gave me.

    1330:

    Yeah, they should be rated in tons, that makes much more sense.

    Long tons or short tons?

    Archaic tons. This was in fact how temperature conditioning was first measured, back when it wasn't electric, and it wasn't about cooling people or cooling buildings. Specifically, American railroads wanted to ship meat from the Chicago slaughterhouses to the East Coast. So the unit of interest was boxcar-tons-per-hour, which told the railroad how many tons of ice they needed to buy. Ice was cut from ponds in winter, and stored.

    The meat travelled alive to Chicago. Those cattle drives you saw in classic "Western" movies and TV shows ? They were driving the cattle to the nearest railhead, back when the railways didn't go pretty well everywhere.

    1331:

    And Barr is in more trouble, his actions with the NY AG has resulted in more scrutiny of some of his other actions - like replacing a US attorney in Texas.

    Is it just me, or does Barr look like something out of a Gahan Wilson cartoon?

    1332:

    Maybe it was Melania who was first. Remember her mysterious disappearance back in spring of 2018? Renal impairment is often found in covid-19 patients.

    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2018/06/melania-timeline-break-timeline

    [ ... Monday, May 14, the White House announced that Mrs. Trump was admitted to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center for an embolization procedure on her kidneys, which is a minimally invasive tack used to cut off blood flow to parts of the organ...." ]

    ~~~~~~~~~

    There's another thing about chickens -- they are vicious, and do they ever gang up.

    1333:

    Excellent. I'd like to do that if I lived somewhere it could go and live in the wild when it got too big. How long do you get to keep them for before they start trying to have your fingers off with a reasonable expectation of success? Do they try and socialise with humans in a croccy way at all?

    1334:

    Reverting to the original question... During the current hiatus I've taken to watching old episodes of CSI, and the one with the clowns and mimes got me thinking.

    Mimes and clowns are sub-classes of the Circus Skills character class. So you have generic things like juggling, distraction ability, and specific things like balloon based weaponry and familiars for clowns, and if course Clownphobia, while the mime's have the Invisible Box, Unseen Gale...

    Circus Skills come with ready made lore from our reality.

    1335:

    Yep. The high days of the cattle drives lasted, according to the late and lamented U. Utah Phillips, about 20 years, before the railroads came to nearer places.

    1336:

    They start trying to take your finger off as soon as they are hatched - and, as I was pretty small myself, I had to learn to watch out. As far as I could tell, that was its sole form of interaction with humans! It went to somewhere that could keep it after a year or so.

    1337:

    Polar smallsats are a profitable niche for Rocket Labs.

    1338:

    SFR What does history say about this? Study the great Civil Wars (plural) as Charlie often mentions. 1645-51 & again in 1688-89, with an utterly futile attempt at a re-run by the complete & delusional & religious reactionaries in both 1715 & 1745 - emotion played a large part in the last two. Or France - how many revolutions 1789-1871? One could argue that actually, neither the 3rd or 4th Republics were stable & France only really became a modern state in 1958! ASSUMING that the D's get a clean sweep this November ... in some areas they are going to have to act both fast & decisively: VOTING reform, to stop suppression & gerrymandering. I think police reform-almost to the point of destruction ... you have to have a police force, but they may have to go back to zero & start again ... the overlapping jurisdictions are a nightmare ... Health? Stamping HARD on the Confedaracy - that Atlantic article was - informative. The same way we stamped hard on official catholicism - for very good & sufficient reasons at the time. The mistake we made was not to let up after about 1763.

    1339:

    Yes, many smallsats are in sun-synchronous orbit, meaning the very low aviation usage downrange from NZ more than offsets the distance from the equator for the Rocket Lab target market. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun-synchronous_orbit They are planning on chucking stuff to the moon for NASA (from Virginia), however. https://www.rocketlabusa.com/news/updates/rocket-lab-selected-by-nasa-to-launch-pathfinder-mission-to-the-moon/

    1340:

    "ASSUMING that the D's get a clean sweep this November..."

    Even that is not going to change much any time soon.

    A very large portion, the vast majority I think, of the population of USA suffer from so severe indoctrination that a comparison to Stockholm Syndrome is in order.

    The fact that using masks to limit the spread of Covid19 could be politicized is very much the point here.

    In the most cartoonish form, you have people utterly convinced they live in "Gods Own Country" and therefore all other countries, and whatever they have done, must by definition be inferior.

    But every single USAnian I have ever gotten to know suffers from a significant amount of that bias.

    The truly absurd "logic" of "If USA has done X this way, it is by definition the one true and obviously best way to do X" is staggeringly widespread, even in otherwise very enlightened circles.

    You cannot fully appreciate how bad the indoctrination is, until you drag USAnians abroad for an extended period of time.

    We pulled 35-ish very "liberal" Californians to Denmark to deliver a huge turn-key computer system, and only after a couple of months did they come out of "disney/cruise tourist mode" and start to appreciate that they were not immersed in a commercially curated utopia, built specially for tourists, but actually living in an real country, and enjoying the concrete every-day benefits of policies like restrictively licensed weapons, public healthcare, free education (K-College), diverse sources of news etc.

    The most choking experience for most of them, was that the "confiscatory" income tax in Denmark left them with more money and a lot less stress, than the famously low taxes of USA.

    There is simply no way you can explain to USAnians, how much peace of mind public healtcare comes with, only when they experience it, will they start to fully understand the human toll and suffering caused by death-panel-HMOs.

    To turn USA into a moderately civilized country, you would need some kind of "factual revolution" which over a generation or two puts facts back over opinions and religion.

    (I'm deliberately not using "cultural revoltion", but I expect the death-toll to be about the same.)

    China fears North Korea falling apart, it would cause millions of utterly brainwashed people to become their problem.

    I'm sure Canada has similar concerns.

    1341:

    Re: ' ... you would need some kind of "factual revolution"'

    Agree - however without coming across as smug, superior, snarky, smarter/holier-than-thou, etc. - talking down - when you present the facts/data.

    Also address common USian self-descriptors esp. 'competitive', 'aggressive', an 'individual', etc. Maybe show examples of how these are manifested elsewhere, i.e., not a zero-sum game, and whaddyaknow - no one has to die!

    1342:

    "no one has to die!"

    News-flash: They are already dying, because USA is failing, or rather, barely even sitting for, the exam in "pandemic-101".

    1343:

    Oof. Hadn't seen them called redcaps before.

    Yeah, that's probably kinda rude of me. But you know, it fits just a bit.

    1344:

    P-H K My moment of pure enlightenment on that came when I read a US forces' leaflet: "Those strange German Ways" for visiting personnel, back in 1965 ... "Those strange German Ways" were 95%+ also those strange British Ways ... Oh shit.

    Adendum to my 1338 Of course, even if the D's sweep the board, there is a significant possiblity of those states that still voted for DT to ... not QUITE secede, bu to make life very difficult for the new, dangerous evil socialist Federal Guvmint ... simply by sitting on their hands & refusing, point-blank to co-operate in any way at all. Think the corrupt leaders of the "free Catalonia" movement, with guns & local (state) militias f'rinstance?

    1345:

    Let's see, where we'll be in January 2021, at a guess: --Without a covid vaccine (pray for a miracle, but plan for life without it) --With millions of people sick --Without much of a functioning federal government --With a massive economy deprecession of some sort --Hopefully without the Republicans in any power in DC other than, oh, the supreme court and the senate filibuster.

    And, um, no, I don't see secession in the cards, even for the reddest states. I do see a lot of states near bankruptcy though. Most of them are likely to be either dealing with crashing hospitals and/or budgets that depend more on federal handouts than local tax revenues, but whose main financial support (the blue states with urban centers) are suffering even more with covid 19. That's going to suck for everyone, even those outside the US who depended on US consumer spending to power their economies.

    Now, let's place our bets on what happens with hurricane season in the southeast and fire season in the west, shall we?

    1346:

    I still have mine, in the loft. Good gadget in its time.

    1347:

    I think people need to temper their expectations as to what a Biden/DNC Senate (if it happens) need to do first or urgently.

    As noted by Heteromeles there is a good chance that the US is going to be in a very big mess that will need to be cleaned up, and likely some very unpopular decisions will need to be made.

    Many of the States by law cannot run deficits - they are facing a bleak short term future.

    Even those that can, there will (sadly) be pressure to "cut programs" to minimize deficits.

    That, and all the other Covid fallout (and the expected ongoing Covid stuff at the time) will by necessity be the first and immediate focus of any sane incoming administration.

    1348:

    You've not met me - I suffer from none of that.

    Of course, I grew up in a slum that went from 100% white (mostly easter European, and Jewish) to 90% Black between kindergarten and 4th grade, slum apartment building, didn't move out till I was 19... oh, and I'm a red diaper baby.

    Makes the US look like a WHOOOOLE different place.

    I love the eternal "confiscatory taxes"... yeah, until you look at what folks actually pay... and then there's the ultrawealthy.

    First thing I'll do, when I'm elected President, is shut down Faux News as an antiAmerican propaganda machine, take Murdoch's citizenship away, and ship him back to Australia (if they'll take him - I don't mind him being stateless).

    And reinstate equal time. 200% of the shock jocks would have heart failure.

    1349:

    The mistake was not stomping on them with everything the Union had and the csa had not from the moment of Appomattox. Grant should never allowed the officers to keep their weapons and their horses, just to start with. The only one who had to turn over his weapons -- which meant his dress sword, which I do believe he received at graduation from West Point -- was Lee. Ir was done very differently at Yorktown and that's how it should have rolled from Appomattox on. And Jefferson Davis should have been tried for treason and hung -- along with Lee and a whole buncha others -- but instead they were treated with great respect and then -- just let go. Of course they didn't believe they lost. It was ... just ... a pause. The pandemic no longer existed. They'd won and they've been winning every since pretty much. And now they've entirely destroyed the very idea of a nation and government.

    They are going to be crying and begging for it come about January, one may well surmise.

    1350:

    "Just a bit"? More like "dead on".

    1351:

    No, they won't secede. For one, before the Civil War (US), the South was an economic powerhouse. Now... in spite of all their complaining, they get more federal dollars than they send to Washington. The Dem states are the ones that get less than they send.

    The GOP in the states are slightly (very slightly) more aware of where things are, and they would be facing insurrection if they tried to put the screws that tight.

    1352:

    another thing about chickens -- they are vicious, and do they ever gang up.

    My death dealing dinosaur descendants are perfectly peaceful creatures thankyouverymuch.

    Those little exploratory pecks they give you are them getting to know you, like when a dog buries its nose in your crotch. The occasional squabble you hear is not a mouse being torn to pieces, it's just the helpless beasties running away from something scary.

    In reality they peck things to see if they can eat them, will grab hold of whatever looks like food and fight for it, and will draw blood at the slightest provocation.

    My ex was only ~1.5m tall and could not cope with roosters at all. Their dominance displays made her shriek and run away, when what she needed to do was boot them firmly in the chest. A rooster that's unexpectedly flying backwards will generally decide that it has better things to do than come back for another go. But they will try to get behind you and attack once they've had time to think about it. But after the second or third defeat they generally give up.

    Geese, on the other hand, are just bastards, You can beat one to death in front of the rest and they will just shrug and keep pressing their attack. And they somehow know that a peck to the crotch beats a claw to the achilles. They're the cunning version of swans.

    1353:

    I don't see secession in the cards, even for the reddest states. I do see a lot of states near bankruptcy though

    Isn't that a bit like the British accepting Malta into the UK? By the time the process was nearing completion it had become obvious to everyone that the British would gain nothing in exchange for accepting a large liability.

    It would be financially advantageous for the US to accept the withdrawal of a bunch of bankrupt red states from the union. Losing Texas while it still thinks petrostates have a future would probably be a short term price worth paying.

    But since they can't do that without breaking the whole system it's a bit of a furphy

    1354:

    Re: Metric. Grocery stores here freely switch between metric and Imperial for weight measures, usually as a way of obfuscating the cost. If you are shopping in daydream mode you can get tricked.

    For example, fish might be listed as $3.40/100g because eyebrows go up at $15.43/lb, while the chicken next to it will be $3/lb. If you don't look closely the prices seem comparable.

    The US is likely to have some electoral and post-electoral violence when the MAGAs fantasies about reality conflict with actual reality. No doubt that will be fanned by Trump, though it is becoming possible he will just go into a big sulk and leave quietly - or conveniently die of something. He will certainly make a point of dying before accountability for any of his many actual crimes.

    I have no doubt the white supremacists and other extremists will slaughter some innocent bystanders. It is also likely that a fair number of police forces will need to be replaced/reduced/discarded. It will be some interesting times unfortunately.

    1355:

    Yeah. Geese are nasty. It was always a pain, when I was working, twice a year, when the Canada geese came and hung out on campus for weeks.

    The rubber coyotes were nothing but geese-botherers, the one year they tried them.

    1356:

    That's the point of doing alt-history with "Lincoln Lived" as the starting point. IIRC, Andrew Johnson has quite a lot to answer for.

    It still would be interesting to ponder a world where rather more American blacks got their 40 acres and a mule. If all men are determined to be created equal, what explains poverty and success, and justifies exploitation? Gender? Religion? Luck? Being "unfit" in a social Darwinist sense?

    Where do the slavers go? Do they all go to Australia and South America to make blackbirding even worse than it was?

    I don't feel comfortable doing the mashup of 40 acres and a mule embraces steampunk, but it's kind of interesting to as a thought experiment to free steampunk from the passionate embrace of colonialist imperialism, if only for a moment.

    1357:

    Did you see the pics of him, coming back to the White House after Tulsa last Sat? Sad, depressed, and obviously feeling that he's loosing.

    I'm back to what I was thinking two-three years ago: if he loses, they'll go up when he doesn't tweet to find him "unresponsive", probably from blow.

    1358:

    My own preferred solution to the problem would have been to take the most important hundred or so families (maybe up to 5000 people) and exile them, generally without being unpleasant about it; we will hire lawyers to be in charge of selling your land, you may take your knick-knacks and monies with you, get the best possible price for your house... but get the fuck out and don't ever come back, (because we will kill you then, as soon as you can be positively identified, and without trial) and that includes your children!

    As someone said above, Andrew Johnson has a lot to answer for!

    1359:

    Maybe it was Melania who was first. Remember her mysterious disappearance back in spring of 2018? Renal impairment is often found in covid-19 patients. Ah interesting and very deep rabbit hole! I'd forgotten about "Where's Melania?". Some Occam's Duct Tape is required to bridge between 2018 and late 2019, unless her (hypothetical!) SARS-CoV-1.99 was simply put on ice for a year. Browsed a bunch of stills in google images. She does a lot of [aggressively?] fake expressions, or is bad at faking or both. I see that there are some Melania Smileologists. Anyway, found a still of "Fake Melania" ([1] conspiracy theory, 2019; embiggen image) where the left pupil is visibly larger than the right pupil. Not as big as David Bowie's. Theory might check out. :-)

    whitroth 1357: Did you see the pics of him, coming back to the White House after Tulsa last Sat? Sad, depressed, and obviously feeling that he's losing. Did you notice his left hand attempting to fiddle with something that didn't exist in the same physical reality as his body? That was odd. Donald Trump - Walk of Shame - youtube, 1:07 and 'Everybody hurts': Trump's sad 'walk of shame' after Tulsa rally delights critics (Luke O'Neil, 22 Jun 2020)

    (DJT moved disturbingly like my brother in that clip, except (much) fatter, older and sloppier.)

    [1] Melania Trump replacement theory

    1360:

    Talking about people from the US being stupid - I live on Vancouver Island. It is not part of the route from any part of the US to Alaska. I think anyone able to read a map can work that out.

    Americans are not supposed to be allowed into Canada right now. There is an (unfortunate) exception to allow them to drive from the lower 48 to Alaska, on condition they don’t stop and infect us. They are supposed to go direct, have provisions so they don’t need to enter any stores or eateries, and just keep moving.

    So how the fuck are we seeing in influx of US registered vehicles on my island? I’m seriously thinking of pulling out the heavy weaponry. Maybe a few claymores.

    1361:

    I'm back to what I was thinking two-three years ago: if he loses, they'll go up when he doesn't tweet to find him "unresponsive", probably from blow.

    It's possible, but ignominious. I'd suggest it's possible that one reason he's not wearing a mask is that he's hoping to get covid19, and have that to blame for his loss.

    1362:

    There is no excuse...

    But without a desire?

    You seem to think that people feel a need to do so.

    Think of the idea of Brexit and apply it to other things.

    1363:

    Some of us have 1/2 or more of our family tree. Mine from my grandfather down is likely 3/4s MAGA. My brother I and were talking about this a bit the other day and are kind of figuring that we will likely never talk to those again except due to legal need. Not our choice but theirs. Despicable people that we have become.

    1364:

    You can buy a 2x4

    You DO understand that now in the US a 2x4 is really 1.5x3.5?

    And before that was 1 5/8 x 3 5/8 (1960 or so?)

    And before that was 1 3/4 x 3 3/4 (way back when)

    The measurement originally came from the saw mill stepping setting when rough cutting the trees. The missing bit was due to the kerf of the saw.

    1365:

    Where do the slavers go?

    Apparently the same place they did originally. "Go West, young man"

    After all what would 50s/60s TV be without all those shows like "The Virginian".

    [GDRFC]

    But seriously, many did do just that to try and get away from the results of the recent defeat.

    1366:

    influx of US registered vehicles on my island?

    If you keep them we will not mind. Promise.

    1367:

    Greg. You've made various statement about how the UK viewed the US implied promises about WWII to the UK.

    If you can find a way to do it you should watch the US PBS documentary "The Roosevelts: An Intimate History" Episode 6. Primiraly the first hour.

    It covers the run up to WWII and how the president had to maneuver public opinion an politics just to keep the US from telling the UK "sucks to be you".

    Story told from actually first sources and most of the side commentary is by serious historians.

    1368:

    Note on the radio this morning. Apparently DT is using a Stones' recording at his rallies ... & they are very unhappy bunnies. Use of recording without copyright or permission. Needless to say DT is taking no notice. Could be fun....

    whitroth "Red diaper baby" Uh?

    David L I'm horribly aware of how influential the supposed "isolationists" were 1933-41, along with the German-American Bund & Lindbergh There's a particularly horrible photo, taken in 1939, after the swallowing of Poland ... which is included this article.

    1369:

    "Let's see, where we'll be in January 2021, at a guess:"

    There is a LONG time until January 2021.

    USA needs to get through what NOAA calls "an above normal" hurricane season, a prognosis they made assuming normal civilian flight activity.

    Even if the changed use of troposphere does not make hurricane season worse, a hypothesis for which there is zero evidence, you really do not want to evacuate 50km coastal communities during a pandemic.

    However, what you want even less is for those coastal communities to self-evacuate to friends and family throughout USA, because they come from the precise states where covid19 is out of control.

    Note also: Weather forecasts have measurably less skill, because all the MET data from civilian flights are missing from their initialization. Expect predicted hurricane tracks to have less skill.

    Second, another 100k surplus preventable mortality before the election in November is a pretty optimistic guess. Not only will people be dying from covid19, they will also be dying from all the stuff covid19 has displaced in the health care system. There are only so many weeks, not months, to act between being diagnosed with cancer and dying from it.

    Third, as has already been noted, a lot of people and states will find themselves in dire straits this summer, and they are not all going to be cool and rational about.

    However prediction how that will play out is futile, given the non-rationality of all parties involved.

    So come November, half the US states will be severely challenged to execute the election to begin with, in particular because Congress and Twitler are not going to do anything to help them, lest it enable the wrong voters.

    If, as you pray for, it looks like the Wrong Lobsters are set to loose massively, their governors and pluralities will grasp at any straw, no matter how poisonous or tainted, to cling to power.

    SCOTUS said explicitly in Bush vs. Gore that it didn't set precedent, but as the dissent noted, they were not even kidding themselves: Not only did they stick their foot in once, they'll get to do it again, because by not setting precedent, all the inferior courts were taken out of the picture.

    What all lobsters learned from Bush vs. Gore was to screw up your vote counting so that the preferred lobsters lead, when SCOTUS considers the question.

    And good luck keeping The Notorious RBG alive long enough to prevent the junior associate justice in charge of the Supreme Court Building canteen from being a Trumpide.

    Even assuming none of the wrong lobsters win election, you will still end up with a government full of lobsters, lead by grandpa from the slightly silly fraction of the Good Lobster Party, if he is still alive after the summer, and those lobsters will only come to power after (at least) two months where the wrong lobsters have embezzeled, stolen and destroyed everything in their path on the way out.

    Word in Brussels is that the contemplated travel ban on USA is more about preventing an influx of refugees than about preventing reintroduction of covid19.

    1370:

    German-American Bund & Lindbergh

    Still a minority. Go away and leave us alone was the opinion of the vast majority. Which is also the way DT got elected. "We don't need the rest of the world."

    PBS secondary channel on the TV for background noise. The Roosevelt doc (38-43) and the Vietnam doc (Jan-Jun 68) were on back to back. Ugh. Too many similarities in both of them to now.

    1371:

    David L "We don't need the rest of the world" Just like Brexit or N Korea, in other words. Utter insanity.

    1372:

    Greg Trump doesn't need the agreement of the Stones to use their music. The venues he used for his rallies have their own agreements to perform music and presumably pay royalties.

    1373:

    hat's going to suck for everyone, even those outside the US who depended on US consumer spending to power their economies.

    I hate to break it to you, but US consumer spending has been a bust since 2008. The kleptocracy has been busily dismantling the US middle class, which is the engine of consumer spending. The new hotness is Chinese and Indian[*] consumer spending, which is much lower per-capita but a much larger capita to start with.

    But more to the point, globalization has run into a world-war-equivalent outside context problem: COVID19. We still have international trade, and it will recover eventually, but suddenly regional relationships are vastly more important than global ones.

    (Here in the UK, the right wing of the Tory party have always had an Atlanticist bent, and managed to make an epochal pivot towards focusing on the USA and de-emphasizing the EU ... right at the worst possible historical moment. It's not going to be pretty.)

    1374:

    It seems to be more complicated than that (although that will no doubt be the argument used by Trumps lawyers).

    As these disputes have arisen, at issue is whether a song’s use in a campaign rally is covered by a blanket license held by the host venue for all performance purposes. BMI is joining the Stones in contending that the Trump campaign is subject to a license specifically established for political uses, which allows songwriters to object to and withhold use.

    Jodie Thomas, BMI’s executive director of corporate communications, clarified the performing rights org’s position for Variety Saturday after the Stones’ statement was released.

    “BMI’s Political Entities License was implemented about ten years ago to cover political campaigns,” Thomas says. “Since many political events and rallies are often held at places that don’t typically require a music license, such as airport hangars or community fields, a Political Entities License ensures that wherever the campaign stops, it is in compliance with copyright law. A venue license was never intended to cover political campaigns. So if a campaign attempts to rely on a venue license to cover its music use, there’s risk involved.”

    Continued Thomas, “BMI licenses political campaigns and events through its Political Entities or Organizations License, which clearly states that a campaign cannot rely on a venue license to authorize its performance of an excluded work. Therefore, a political campaign cannot and should not try to circumvent BMI’s withdrawal of musical works under its Political Entities License by attempting to rely on another license.”

    In a statement released earlier to Variety and Deadline, BMI said: “The Trump campaign has a Political Entities License which authorizes the public performance of more than 15 million musical works in BMI’s repertoire wherever campaign events occur. There is a provision, however, that allows BMI to exclude musical works from the license if a songwriter or publisher objects to its use by a campaign. BMI has received such an objection and sent a letter notifying the Trump campaign that the Rolling Stones’ works have been removed from the campaign license, and advising the campaign that any future use of these musical compositions will be in breach of its license agreement with BMI.”

    https://variety.com/2020/music/news/rolling-stones-trump-rallies-bmi-stop-use-cant-always-get-what-you-want-1234692381/

    1375:

    That's good news. I removed this track from my playlists for a long time after the Trump victory. But the best response would be for them to rerecord the song with anti - Trump lyrics.

    1376:

    Back to COVID-19 ...

    Asymptomatics show ground-glass pulmonary damage and also shed virus longer than symptomatics (aver. 19 days vs. 14 days).

    Antibodies fade pretty fast - herd immunity unlikely.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/asymptomatic-covid-19-1.5629172

    We need a vaccine.

    1377:

    The new hotness is Chinese and Indian[*] consumer spending,

    Yeah, and importantly China is a much more open economy than the USA.

    It matter here because a giant economy that's entirely self-sufficient doesn't affect the rest of the world much. The USA is big enough, and varied enough, that they are pretty damn self-sufficient and don't import/export a very big % of their economy. They're just not that open an economy compared to the UK or China.

    China, OTOH, is hugely focussed on exports and imports. They're a very open economy in that sense.

    So a really big Chinese recession - banks failing due to bad loans due to Covid, the resulting financial panic - that could screw the world economy as supply chains both selling to and buying from China collapse world-wide. A big US recession would have impact, but I expect not as much.

    1378:

    before the election in November is a pretty optimistic guess

    Just looking at Texas and going by the reported cases carried in https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/additionaldata/ , if the doubling rate levels out and stays constant rather than continuing to decline, 60% of the state's population will be affected by the end of October, more than half that being reported in October alone. Population of Texas is 30 million, so 10-ish million new cases in the weeks before election day.

    We can hope that things will get better before then, but current trends aren't encouraging.

    1379:

    The "Kleptocracy" may imagine they're dismantling the middle class, but they're actually gnawing the foundations, it's as if the radiator cap on a classic Rolls started eating the frame and suspension. If there was anything like a plan, they'd delay their HR Giger style exit until some ersatz heaven had been built to receive them, now it looks like "What falls down first?".

    1380:

    whitroth @ 1325: Oof. Hadn't seen them called redcaps before.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redcap

    Well, once we institute a national healthcare system, including mental and dental health, we'll need a lot of assisted living facilities for them.

    I believe "redcaps" were mentioned in one of the Harry Potter books ... in the "Defense Against the Dark Arts" class.

    1381:

    Elderly Cynic @ 1329: I had a pet crocodile once, hatched from an egg my father gave me.

    The range of the American Alligator includes most of coastal North Carolina. They were almost wiped out, but have been making a comeback in recent years since they've been protected.

    They don't make very good pets. The birds that took up residence around our house while I was growing up weren't pets. They were obviously habituated to humans, but they were still wild and eventually flew away like wild birds will do.

    The parakeet was an exception, but like I said, I think it was an escaped pet and was lonely to be with people again, so it let itself be caught.

    People used to buy baby alligators in Florida & carry them back north when their vacations were over. When the baby alligators got to large people would try to get rid of them. I don't think they were flushed because they would have been too big to go down the pipe. I think they'd get dumped down a storm drain. The New York Times had an article about them just this year:

    The Truth About Alligators in the Sewers of New York

    In addition to the Burmese Pythons in Florida, there's this:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/24/science/crocodiles-in-florida.html

    1382:

    DonL @ 1330:

    Yeah, they should be rated in tons, that makes much more sense.
    Long tons or short tons?

    Archaic tons. This was in fact how temperature conditioning was first measured, back when it wasn't electric, and it wasn't about cooling people or cooling buildings. Specifically, American railroads wanted to ship meat from the Chicago slaughterhouses to the East Coast. So the unit of interest was boxcar-tons-per-hour, which told the railroad how many tons of ice they needed to buy. Ice was cut from ponds in winter, and stored.

    I was just being facetious.

    But, RE: "Ice was cut from ponds in winter" - I've actually seen that being done. It was when I visited China in December 2010. We passed along a frozen lake on the way up to where we were going to visit the Great Wall, and I could see workers out on the ice cutting blocks and stacking them on a sled (big sled pulled by a tractor).

    1383:

    _Moz_ @ 1353: It would be financially advantageous for the US to accept the withdrawal of a bunch of bankrupt red states from the union. Losing Texas while it still thinks petrostates have a future would probably be a short term price worth paying.

    Ain't gonna' fuckin' happen. Get over it.

    Splinter in my eye; plank in your own etc.

    1384:

    alligators

    Did you catch the story about the 7' one down in Fuquay Varina (10 miles south of JBS's house) they noticed in a pond as the suburbs encroached.

    For some reason the new homeowners didn't want to share space with something that could eat pets and small children.

    PTB moved it to the eastern swamps.

    1385:

    Ain't gonna' fuckin' happen.

    Yes. The military base issues alone make the similar situation in Scotland look trivial.

    And even if you remove oil from the Texas economy it's still a very very big economy.

    1386:

    We need a vaccine. All jurisdictions need to make face coverings mandatory in indoor public places (including shared transportation), as a baseline. (Strictly, at least all jurisdictions with community spread. Papers are starting to be published (previews) analysing the face-coverings natural experiments, and they are suggesting a strong effect. Mandatory orders have worked well, at the state level, in the NE US, by my reading of the state level new-infections stats vs when the orders were issued.) This is the measure that should be the default "conservative" position; low cost, low freedom-impact. Physical distancing is also required where possible; don't know how to make that mandatory though without a panopticon; enforcing masks is hard enough, though I'll note my local area in southern NY State has near 100 percent mask discipline indoors in public places; jumped from about 50% to 100% within a day of the order.

    I see that it's being considered for Scotland (has it been decided yet?): Face mask rules Scotland: when and where face coverings are mandatory as Scotland enters phase 2 of lockdown - First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has updated the rules around wearing face coverings in Scotland as the country moves into the second stage of the lockdown route map (Claire Schofield, 26th June 2020) She added that over the next few days, the Scottish government is consulting on whether face coverings should also be made mandatory in shops as well, and will make a decision before 29 June.

    1387:

    That's a thick old saw blade. And it's getting thicker. In fact it's making more sawdust than it is 2x4s.

    1388:

    FWIW, I hope for a cure for our ruling elite's obvious "Rectal-Cerebral Inversion", it would be much more useful than secession. Also, FWIW, my home State is also infested.

    1389:

    The American Alligator ... They don't make very good pets. ...

    They're almost cuddly compared to a Nile crocodile, though :-)

    I don't think that any crocodilian makes a good pet, even for someone with a large estate containing a good-sized lake. For anyone else, they're a damn-fool idea.

    1390:

    I am losing my sanity. Three hours ago I bought a brand new adjustable wrench. An hour ago, I removed it from the "never open" packaging. Now I can't find the damn thing.

    I am so tired, so frustrated and in so much pain I could cry. I have so much work to do and I need that wrench.

    1391:

    Much simpler answer than getting that many claymores: call the RCMP. Seriously.

    1392:

    Sorry, I thought "red diaper baby" was in common usage.

    Second-generation socialist, son of Depression-era Old Left.

    1393:

    Re: 'USA needs to get through what NOAA calls "an above normal" hurricane season, a prognosis they made assuming normal civilian flight activity.

    Even if the changed use of troposphere does not make hurricane season worse, ...'

    Some potentially good news on the weather front: the Saharan dust storm might reduce the potency and number of hurricanes. And there's a second massive dust storm on this one's heels ... maybe days away.

    Ironically, the best advice for coping with all this on-coming dust is to wear a dust mask - you know just like the type that you're supposed to wear to prevent the spread of COVID-19. More irony/coincidence (?). It looks like the US regions likely to get the worst of the dust are the ones that have the highest COVID-19 spikes, i.e. Florida, Texas. Mexico's also going to get a lot of raining sand. I wonder what some folks/pols are going to make of this including impact on mask wear. Noticed a Houston paper saying 'wear a mask' because of this storm.

    https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/nasa-noaa-s-suomi-npp-satellite-analyzes-saharan-dust-aerosol-blanket

    'On June 18, NASA’s Earth Observatory noted the thickest parts of the plume appeared to stretch about 2,500 kilometers (1,500 miles) across the Atlantic Ocean. By June 24, the plume extended over 5,000 miles.

    Dust from Africa can affect air quality as far away as North and South America if it is mixed down to ground level. But dust can also play an important ecological role, such as, fertilizing soils in the Amazon and building beaches in the Caribbean. The dry, warm, and windy conditions associated with Saharan Air Layer outbreaks from Africa can also suppress the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones.'

    1394:

    Tim H & Charlie Correct in that the US kleptocracy are dismantling the Middle Class (Whatever that is, since Marx was wrong & most of the "MC" referred-to are wage/salary earners, but let's ignore that ) - oops, where was I? What's the PROFIT in dismantling the Mid Class? What's in it for them? And, of course, you are entirely correct in that it can only end in tears - once they have stolen everything, what's left? Do they actually want to live in somewhere like DRC, which has had a kleptocracy since about 1963 ..... It's entirely self-defeating, which strikes me as very odd indeed. Or are they hoping for their version of Soviet Russia, where they are the new Nomenklatura? Or the identical fascist version of the same?

    JBS & EC The real nasty, worse than all the others, from what I've been told is the Saltwater Croc - as found in AUS & some parts of the Indonesian/Philippine areas.

    1395:

    What's the PROFIT in dismantling the Mid Class? What's in it for them?

    They see themselves as the Elite: landowners, oligarchs, aristocrats. Morally entitled by birth to rule, like the descendants of feudal nobility.

    What's in it for them?

    They want to roll back the Modern and reinstitute a state of affairs that would have been recognized as "normal" prior to the French revolution -- one in which they are above the law and own all the real estate, and everybody else is a peasant who owes them the fruits of their labour.

    For a while, the "middle class" expanded and were no longer precarious, while the ultra-rich got cut back, and the ultra-rich didn't like it. Middle-class folks who weren't precarious could afford to get educated and not worry about unemployment or ill-health: they behaved like hedge-nobles of reduced circumstances but elevated birth, and didn't bend the neck before their betters. So that had to be fixed by taking them down a peg.

    (If you think this is bonkers and irrational, you're quite correct. But it's basic primate troupe dominance signaling. The oligarchs are not clever, wise, or insightful, any more than their mediaeval predecessors were.)

    1396:

    Charlie Yes - but it cannot possibly work in a modern society - can it? Not without the universal surveillance & secret police, as used by the PRC, that is. And even then, maybe not. Yoour bracketed last comment says it, I think. By the way .... BoZo is now openly modelling himself on DT, knowing he's got 4 more years. He's starting to deliberately wreck the machinery of government, following the vile Scummings suggestions - here's the first open move How long he'll get away with it is another Q - people are already very twitchy about "one law for us, another for Scummings & Jenrick", huh?

    1397:

    Only according to Australians! The Nile and saltwater crocodiles are about equally nasty.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nile_crocodile#Attacks_on_humans

    1398:

    Yes - but it cannot possibly work in a modern society - can it? Not without the universal surveillance and secret police, as used by the PRC, that is.

    Not to worry, they're changing the rules iteratively. You might have noticed Cummings pushing the career civil service heads under the bus this evening, to replace them with yes-men? (It's not just Sedwill who's going.)

    1399:

    FWIW, I hope for a cure for our ruling elite's obvious "Rectal-Cerebral Inversion", it would be much more useful than secession. Also, FWIW, my home State is also infested.

    For the rapid treatment of both rectal-cerebral inversion and craniorectal insertion syndrome, talk to your doctor about new Guillotine. Guillotine is not right for everyone. It is not recommended if you have symptoms of sanity or self-preservation. Talk with your doctor about Guillotine. It's the right treatment for today's world.

    1400:

    Minor correction: it's craniorectal impaction.

    1401:

    Harry Potter? I've known about redcaps since the seventies, if not the late sixties, long before there was any Harry Potter. It's that I hadn't seen MAGAnuts referred to them as that, and it's perfect.

    1402:

    Ok. I was just browsing an ebook site, and nearly barfed.

    "Vegan science fiction"?

    1403:

    Guillotine is a little like HydroxyChloroquine; you should only take it if you're infested with blood-sucking parasites, such as Vampire Squids...

    1404:

    James Schmitz was there first :-)

    1405:

    The slavers went north, at least the ones who ran the Secession and the CSA.

    They still owned their land. They still had their educations, generally received at Northern colleges like Harvard, and in Europe. They had all their family connections, such as long time intermarriage with wealthy Northerners (see, for a single instance, Theodore Roosevelt's mother's family due to her marriage with wealthy TR's dad) and Europeans. New York and Boston and Chicago received the largest number of them. They went to work in banking and finance mostly, in firms owned by family connections or family friend connections. They did just fine, thank you. See the Virginian male protagonist in Henry James The Bostonians, for how a contemporary description of this wide practice that everyone took for granted.

    Varina Davis, after widowhood, lived in NYC and wrote ... not infrequently taking tea with another widow ... Mrs. President Grant. Both of these widows did just fine unlike the widow of assassinated President Lincoln.

    Jefferson Davis traveled about Europe for a while, at the expense of 'friends.' The same friends found him a series of positions as in an insurance company in Tennessee, but he failed miserably at all of them. But another very wealthy widow gave him her mansion on the Mississippi Gulf coast and supported him the custom in which he deserved due to being both a god and a martyr to the South (that was how she thought). The place is now called a Presidential Library and received a whopping few million from FEMA to offset the damage from Katrina.

    Others went west ... like the Virginian in Owen Wister's novel, to find happiness and reconciliation in "White man's country" (Wister was one of Theodore Roosevelt's good buddies).

    The slave traders per se, went back to trading mules and horses, which is where so many got their training for their distinguished antebellum careers.

    And then came Jim Crow and share cropping and all was right and as it should be for the scions of the Dixie slaveocracy for a long time, until the goddamned northerners ruined it again.

    1406:

    I don't think that any crocodilian makes a good pet, even for someone with a large estate containing a good-sized lake. For anyone else, they're a damn-fool idea.

    It was a thing (and sorry it seems it still is such) that tourists to places like Florida Everglades would buy a 9" long gator and bring it home to keep in a terrarium or enclosed decorative pool. And I'm sure the used car salesman running the sales counter that day at "Uncle Bob's Live Gator Exhibit" was telling folks they only got a bit bigger when fully grown.

    1407:

    Hah, I wish. RCMP are referring to Health Canada who are referring to.. .RCMP. Maybe CSIS can be persuaded that it is a national security issue.

    1408:

    Ain't gonna' fuck

    You can selectively quote me in a way that's deliberately misleading all you like, ancient virgin, and it won't change my opinion of you one bit.

    1409:

    I should have added that the big plantation owners were courted almost before the war was finished by individual and consortiums of investors for cotton -- and that includes Howell Cobb's big place in Georgia, the only plantation Sherman deliberately burned. Howell Cobb's portrait honoring him as Speaker of the House just got taken down last week, I believe. Because, as you know, he was a Founding Father of the Confederacy which was created for the preservation and expansion of slavery -- hey they tell us that in all their documents and announcements and PR! -- and actively fought in the army against the United States government's army, and also served in the CSA government.

    1410:

    The real nasty, worse than all the others, from what I've been told is the Saltwater Croc - as found in AUS

    Of course. We have a reputation to uphold :)

    1411:

    Yeah, I already saw that T-Rex predecessor from Oz....

    1412:

    Re: redcaps. Maybe the term will catch on? I mean, we've had them for four years...

    There is another venue for the term though.

    Wizards of the Coast published their support of Black Lives Matter earlier this month. So if you're a bit uncomfortable about different "gaming races" having different alignments as a function of their race, then redcaps may be for you.

    Perhaps the orcs and goblins you DM aren't biologically evil? Well and good. But if they're wearing a red cap as a symbol of their allegiance to a malignant, narcissistic lord, then you can feel free to treat them as orcs have traditionally been treated in D&D or other RPGs.

    It's just a different, and fairly traditional, use of the term redcap. The cap is a choice, as evil generally is.

    1413:

    It looks like the US regions likely to get the worst of the dust are the ones that have the highest COVID-19 spikes, i.e. Florida, Texas.

    We talked with a friend in San Antonio, TX yesterday and it's already a problem for outdoors exercise.

    1414:

    Saltwater crocs, are they poisonous? Do they fly? Explode randomly, emit dangerous radiation, protest against vaccination? Just HOW dangerous are they?

    1415:

    Haven't DM's in decades. But... now, I know goblins from, say, MacDonald, so to me, they're non-human, very tribal, hostile to strangers and humans, etc, not by default evil.

    Orcs... I mean, Tolkien said they were bred by Morgoth as anti-Elven, and evil.

    If I'm gaming, I am not going to catch all I can and put them in a reeducation camp.

    Hmmmm, interesting question: after Sauron's fall, all the monsters fought, but many ran away, and eventually they broke and routed.

    Without Sauron's will... remember all the Orcs Frodo and Sam ran into in Mordor? Would they slowly mutate to more like goblins (as defined above)?

    1416:

    Talk with your doctor about Guillotine. It's the right treatment for today's world.

    Available soon from IKEA !

    1417:

    They have nasty spiky bits so when you eat them you have to be really careful - generally you can't spit bits out if you decide you don't like them.

    Also, they can get quite large so when you're carrying them round you might need more than one person. If one falls out of a tree on top of you it's going to hurt. Probably a lot.

    The real risk is those "caution: crocodile" signs, because crocs generally drop out of school before they learn to obey the signs. So every now and then someone discoveres that just being on the "safe" side of the sign isn't enough and gets licked by a croc*.

    • they have short tongues, you're mostly inside before the licking starts
    1418:

    BTW, Julie Nolke has two great videos explaining this year to her past selves:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ms7capx4Cb8

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdyDpP2s-og

    1419:

    Note on the radio this morning. Apparently DT is using a Stones' recording at his rallies ... & they are very unhappy bunnies. Use of recording without copyright or permission. Needless to say DT is taking no notice. Could be fun....

    Long running issue since at least prior to the last election - candidate uses music, musician object, rinse and repeat.

    1420:

    Ellen says she wants to see the instructions for it.

    1421:

    Just looking at Texas and going by the reported We can hope that things will get better before then, but current trends aren't encouraging.

    To a certain extent it will correct - even while denying the reality the Texas Governor has backtracked on several openings - and once the hospitals run out of space the Texas public will take notice and many of them will react regardless of political party.

    Covid remains a liberal conspiracy until the reality of hospitals no longer accepting patients - and then it stops being a conspiracy.

    1422:

    I am seriously tempted to play with QAnon. :-) Twitter video. Note the "QAnon digital soldier oath" is literally the US oath of office, not resembling the military oath of enlistment. You can find more of these, a lot more, with searches.

    This is Jo Rae Perkins, the Republican Party's nominee for the U.S. Senate in Oregon, taking the QAnon digital soldier oath. https://t.co/Rgtm4hWcrr

    — Right Wing Watch (@RightWingWatch) June 27, 2020
    1423:

    Yes - but it cannot possibly work in a modern society - can it?

    Why not?

    A steady diet of reality TV, Kardashians, and online fake news to distract them from the reality and a large chunk of the population will be quite content.

    I mean, they already get a large number of people to vote against themselves "to own the liberals" or "to prevent the non-white from stealing my tax dollars" - while willfully ignoring the tax cuts that don't just favour the rich, by essentially only go to the rich.

    Consider Downton Abbey - most respects a great show (great acting, writing, etc.) - but I am guessing an entirely fictitious view of just how the servants and others on the land were really treated. It made being a servant look glamorous, with frequent trips to the village and glossing everything else.

    As a result, how many people now (at least in the back of their mind) think given the drudge of current life things wouldn't be better with a return to the UK of King & Country? It may even have helped influence the Brexit vote with it's rosy view that life was perfect in the past.

    Not without the universal surveillance & secret police, as used by the PRC, that is. And even then, maybe not.

    https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2020/06/senates-new-anti-encryption-bill-even-worse-earn-it-and-thats-saying-something

    1424:

    We need a vaccine.

    Not my field, but with 13% of symptomatic patients losing antibodies as well after 8 weeks I wonder how effective a vaccine can we create?

    And will governments be willing to face down the anti-vaxxers with a vaccine that may have a frequent booster?

    1425:

    Saltwater crocs - yes, all the above. Plus I understand that they can hack kernels, seduce our wimminz, sour the milk and make little children wet themselves. Or is that last couple republicans? I forget.

    I understand that the IKEA guillotine will be named “HedChoppi” and will be available in several tasteful colour choices.

    1426:

    There is an addition to the Ikea Guillotine: the appropriate soundtrack (this is literally my favorite version): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIxOl1EraXA

    1427:

    once the hospitals run out of space the Texas public will take notice and many of them will react regardless of political party.

    Almost there. From a news report yesterday. KHOU

    He said at least 560 calls for service resulted in hour-long wait times or longer within the past three weeks

    This is the wait time from getting to the hospital to when the patient is completely handed off to the hospital.

    1428:

    It made being a servant look glamorous, with frequent trips to the village and glossing everything else.

    To be honest compared to the lives of most "commoners" it likely was glamorous. Want to be a stable hand? Privy cleaner? Sheep raiser? Etc... It was all relative.

    But to what you said, glamorous had a low bar compared to the other choices. Which were not really shown.

    I recently finished that project. And came to the conclusion that the "gentry" was just plain evil. But since they had always swam in their own swamp it was an evil they just couldn't see.

    1429:

    Thanks for the historical background, incidentally. Bought your book too.

    1430:

    If you want a good look at the "nobility", read Barbara Tuchman's The Proud Tower.

    https://www.amazon.com/Proud-Tower-Portrait-Before-1890-1914/dp/0345405013

    Assholes. All of them. The GOP... I'm not sure if they'd fit, or if they're just too stupid to fit. Bojo and the Tories, yep.

    1431:

    Wanna bet?

    Closing the hospitals will be proof it's a conspiracy.

    Redcap with broken arm gets told to go home and wrap it up themselves, while blacks get in without any waiting (we'll just leave out the multiple gunshot wounds from the story).

    Once someone gets deep into conspiracy theory absolute proof is used to support the theory.

    I've told this story before, but I was having a discussion with a climate change denier, and after some discussion, it became clear that what he was really afraid of was that someone would take away his truck. Clearly his truck was what he used as a substitute for having an identity. So he was afraid of being unmade as a person. The climate hoax had been manufactured by the UN, to take his truck.

    I pointed out with references, that the science of climate change started several decades before the invention of the motorcar and about 3 generations before the UN started, so it seemed unlikely that it had been invented solely to take his truck.

    Apparently "that just shows how deep the conspiracy runs"...

    1432:

    ...absolute proof against the theory is used...

    1433:

    There's more to it than that. A few years back, for some months, this woman, a librarian, a contractor at the Military Medical Center, across the street from the NIH, was taking the Metro with me. Finally, the last time I saw her, we got to climate change... and her final argument was, "I don't believe God would give us the power to do this."

    1434:

    "I don't believe God would give us the power to do this."

    The stories of Adam and Eve, Sodom and Noah all go against her theory I'm afraid. They all involve people, sometime many people, suffering because someone else went against God's will. I'm sure there are other tales in the bible where bad things happen to large numbers of people. But sheesh, imagine being a nightsoil collector in Sodom when some muppet decided that being raped by angels was to be avoided... one minute you're hands full of shit, nec minnit feeling uncomfortably warm in the fires of hell.

    1435:

    "Vegan science fiction"?

    You have issues with SF from the constellation Lyra?

    1436:

    "I don't believe God would give us the power to do this."

    Being the stinker I am, I prefer the Genesis 1 approach: God gave dominion over the Earth to mankind. Why would he give such a responsibility to a powerless creature? Rule is only possible when you have the power to force things to do your bidding, or destroy them otherwise. If God gave us the power to rule His good creation, isn't it our responsibility to keep the dominion he gave us as good as He made it?

    I've actually used this argument. It's fun to watch the lack of reaction.

    Incidentally, this seems to be where the Christian environmentalists come from, and they do exist.

    1437:

    Orcs... I mean, Tolkien said they were bred by Morgoth as anti-Elven, and evil.

    Well, later Tolkien was not so sure about this. I have the impression that from the later writings you can tell that he wasn't really comfortable with the 'always evil' orcs, even though one can read that from the Silmarillion and the Lord of the Rings. He didn't get to complete everything, and even Silmarillion was published posthumously. If he had had time to rewrite things (again) the orcs might not be so evil at all.

    There's a dissertation about racism in fantasy which I recommend if you're interested. It talks about orcs, too.

    As for D&D, I kind of don't anymore want to play in games in which you can kill sentient creatures because their description in the Monster has "Alignment: CE" or whatever, especially when they're so close to humans as to make fertile offspring together. Otherplanar stuff, like demons or slaadi are still somewhat different, but it'd make an interesting game where the implications of 'good' and 'evil' in regards to angels and demons would be explored. Githyanki and githzerai would come under the same label as close-to-human peoples.

    1438:

    I haven't tried the RPG, maybe this setting may interest you :

    https://killsixbilliondemons.com/

    https://killsixbilliondemons.com/kill-six-billion-demons-rpg-full-release/

    So far, nobody in the story has a clean slate.

    1439:

    If God gave us the power to rule His good creation, isn't it our responsibility to keep the dominion he gave us as good as He made it?

    That argument also came through the Islamic tradition, for what effect that has had.

    This sort of thing is also where I'm reminded that I'm a kiwi, because the words that come to mind first are "New Zealand English" (ie, Maori)... kaitiakitanga for example. "guardianship" rather than the colonialist "ownership". "It's mine I have to look after it" rather than "it's mine I can smash it if I want to".

    rāhui, a temporary restriction, is also in much more common use than it was when I lived there I think. But the term was used at least by iwi when I was around.

    1440:

    David L & mdive There was a v good reason for a lot of people to prefer "domestic service" - certainly up until 1900-1914. Life expectancy - between 19 &20 years longer than many industrial workers ... people noticed that sort of differential.

    1441:

    " What's the PROFIT in dismantling the Mid Class? What's in it for them?" :

    The same reason people try to be on top in supposedly classless "socialist republic" societies : power, privilege and mostly the pleasure of seeing other people humiliate themselves.

    Exhibit A for this behavior in Trump. Or Elon Musk. Or almost anybody that comes to great power.

    1442:

    Also, about the good and evil in fantasy worlds, there is a good webcomic called Yet Another Fantasy Gamer Comic, which at the moment of this writing has a big conflict between the 'good' goddess and the 'bad' goddess, and in the current strips (SPOILERS for the plot line, obviously, both here and in the current strips) somebody calls them out on their crap.

    I like the comic, but there's, uh, over 3550 strips of it. Not all of it concerns this battle between good and evil, but it starts with and mostly follows the so-called 'evil' monsters in the setting.

    1443:

    I don't know how often it used to be, but now that Te Ao is my primary news source I'm seeing Rāhui and Tapu quite often.

    It seems from the outside, to be managing moana kai industry pretty well. There seems to be community respect by both Pākehā and Māori, toward the restrictions, with no push back.

    1444:

    Oh, and speaking of good and evil stories. From what I understand, it's massacred the original religious stories, but nevertheless I subscribed to Disney Plus yesterday specifically to see Moana in Te Reo. I can highly recommend it. There are subtitles but even without, I think you could follow the story. I got 90% of what was going on despite only understanding 10% of the words. Jayden Randall sang the songs as well as doing the voice of the titular character and was fantastic. I don't like Disney Princess movies at all, but this I did. I had a quick glance at the American language version, and the te reo Māori version was way better.

    1445:

    I didn't realise that they were ecological competitors with drop bears - do they share a range?

    1446:

    There are a lot more aspects to the immune system than just antibody production, and we aren't certain that we have identified all of it; we are CERTAIN we don't understand it.

    https://www.my-immunity.com/what-are-the-components-of-the-immune-system.html

    What evidence there is, is that COVID is an unusual virus in how it interacts with the immune system, so we are only guessing how relevant antibodies are to immunity and resistance. That is why the experts are advising against 'coronavirus passports' - like my old yellow card, which was required for travel in my youth (where I needed to go), and which I still have :-)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carte_Jaune

    1447:

    I don't like Disney Princess movies at all,

    What, you didn't like "Aliens"?

    1448:

    They were very mean to the Princess.

    1449:

    I didn't realise that they were ecological competitors with drop bears - do they share a range?

    Sort of... drop bears eat them.

    Mostly if a crocodile falls out of a tree it's because a drop bear has decided it tastes bad. They only like the young, crunchy ones. The tough leathery ones they just chew on a bit then drop.

    1450:

    A friend in the middle east described the horror a lot of people there showed around the arrest of Jeffrey Epstein. The poor man was just trying to help his billionaire clients get a taste of novelty to colour their boring daily grind, and he was arrested for it! The sadness they must have felt having him retired.

    The socialism and consumerism ruined the marginal value of wealth and power, a poor person with pancreatic cancer in a socialist country outlives the richest man alive (bless St Steve). If any iPhone beats the pants of a Vertu phone in terms of quality of experience how much of an obvious douche does a Vertu look to their kids.

    There is no space for them (the elite and powerful) to push into which allows them to define themselves so they have to deny that space from the middle/upper classes, even if it means that their quality of life decreases. I always think of this as the paradox the junta in Burma, their quality of life was measurably lower than a middle class person in Sweden, but 1000x better than their people. How does that feel, do they feel like gods or office workers?

    Max Covid is going to be an interesting time, I expect a fair few hyper rich to be fleeing to socialist states because nobody wants to be in the country estate in a bush fire (and no irony will be felt).

    1451:

    I expect a fair few hyper rich to be fleeing to socialist states because nobody wants to be in the country estate in a bush fire (and no irony will be felt).

    Waiting for the first reports of billionaires sheltering aboard their luxury yachts who died of COVID19 because they forgot that their crew/servants are also infection-prone hominids.

    1452:

    Mark, why would you re-educate the Orcs? The idea that this race is evil is nothing more than a piece of vile propaganda on the part of the Elves, who are the dominant, colonizing, and also the overprivileged minority among the races of Middle-Earth. This propaganda is enshrined in their religious works, and has resulted, over the centuries, in a genocidal policy on the part of both the Elves and their allies, from which Orcs, Goblins, Hobgoblins, Trolls, Ogres, and other intelligent races have suffered for millenia. The ultimate result of these polices was the fact that 93% of all Orcs were forced to ally themselves with Sauron and live far closer to an active volcano than any race not subject to genocidal madness would ever have chosen!

    Thus the existence of the "Occupy Rivendale" movement, which sought to bring forward the history of Elven genocide against what they considered to be the "lesser races," (including the policy of destroying those among their subject races, such as humans, dwarves, and halflings who do not agree with their policies) who of course all have legitimate needs for food, shelter, land and underground mining resources to call their own.

    The way I do it my own DMing is to assume that the real disputes between the Elves and Orcs are about land use. The Elves would like a nice, shady forest where they can grow the mosses and fungi which are their main forms of sustenance, while Orcs are herders who require a wide open space for their cattle, sheep, goats, etc. - thus they tend to bump heads.

    1453:

    The proper reply to a climate-change denier is that he'll have a Tesla Electric truck when his current truck dies, and if he wants he can hook it up to a solar recharging system and never pay for gas again!

    1454:

    Cannot recall if I have said before, but I travelled long haul through Shanghai in late November. When we disembarked there we were frog marched walked about 500m through the terminal (and then back) just so we could walk past someone with an IR camera.

    Given SARS is pretty much history now, that struck me as odd at the time - not to mention painful, as someone with me was still recovering from a serious health problem.

    I do wonder if the local medics authorities were starting to suspect a problem.

    1455:

    Waiting for the first reports of billionaires sheltering aboard their luxury yachts who died of COVID19 because they forgot that their crew/servants are also infection-prone hominids.

    If we can shelter in place without dying, so can they. Getting groceries aboard isn't a situation where people will necessarily be exposed, and if the crew is clean, then it's as safe as sheltering at home.

    I would propose a couple of things. One is that, given the EU's impending ban on travelers from the US, it wouldn't surprise me if there are yachts currently crossing the Atlantic, with good documentation that they've been at sea since March, so the ban doesn't apply to them. Really, but they just want to check on their businesses in the EU, hint hint.

    The other thought is that it's certainly been done, but a yacht is a perfect setting for a murder mystery, either as a story or an RPG. Heck, if you want to put a postmodern angle on it, have the sleuth be the UUW's* pet cat. Perhaps even give her internet access.

    *Ultra ultra wealthy. That's how they refer to themselves.

    1456:

    "The other thought is that it's certainly been done, but a yacht is a perfect setting for a murder mystery,"

    A surprising high number of luxury yacht crew go missing in the high seas, it is a very dangerous occupation.

    Luxury yachts are usually major smuggling operations, customs never bother "that kind of boat", and both the owners and the crew exploit that.

    1458:

    I've been meaning to reply to your original post on this, but it's hard to phrase.

    That isn't the only dominance behaviour among primates, except under artificial conditions (e.g. zoos) where they are enclosed and have no external threats, and the others are less sociopathic. That effect has been very noticeable in the UK, where the world wars improved TPTB's behaviour for a time.

    I have been despairing of UK politics for 50 years because I have seen the way things have been moving, and I still say that so-called representative democracy combined with mass communications is its cause. Those cause the socio- and even psychopathic scum to rise to the top - at least hereditable oligarchies have a more-or-less random collection at the top, and only most are selfish shits. Rudyard Kipling and Paul Linebarger had observed that before me - but it remains heresy in most people's minds :-(

    What I don't understand is why the sheeple put up with it, let alone actively cooperate with it - which they do, even when it is clearly to their detriment. The simple answer is that they wouldn't be sheeple if they did anything different, but they aren't all idiots or uneducated and many are extremely intelligent and well-educated. I shall never understand the human race, and sometimes doubt whether I am one of them ....

    1459:

    but a yacht is a perfect setting for a murder mystery Mary Celeste...

    1460:

    As far as I know I came up with the ideas independently, but I suspect a lot of people have come up with similar ideas independently - you don't have to be paying a ton of attention to realize that Elves and Orcs have a lot of room for metaphor-making on the subjects of politics or racism.

    1461:

    Re: ' .. so-called representative democracy combined with mass communications is its cause.'

    Okay - what are your insights as to causes?

    Here are two that immediately popped to mind:

    a) Socially accepted/mandated impediments to the active/public participation in the democratic process:

    I remember being shocked to find out (on this blog) that it's common for Brits applying for middle-management and higher jobs to avoid any identification/link with any political party. They're avoiding politics because of job/career security. Great - so your better/well-educated start-of or mid-career folks have to bury their heads in the sand so that they can pay their rent? This means entrenched cultivated ignorance of what's going on socioeconomically and politically. Plus - this also likely means a much lower voter turnout among this demo.

    You and others mentioned how soul-destroying it was to know that you were being blocked from sharing some scientific/technical knowledge with others. Well - from here, it looks like that's the UK way.

    b) Media - Closed loop self-reinforcement, tech sector usage pattern changes, etc.

    The media component is somewhat related: each media continues to operate as though nothings has changed or ever will change - despite ad revenue continuing to drop for 'old media' (radio, TV, billboards, etc.) About the only way to keep getting media $$$ is to produce only the hottest trending types of shows, i.e., competing in a shrinking market therefore more focus on being/reaching the extremes.

    The first couple of Reality TV shows were big enough audience draws to spawn a lot of wanna-be's. This was made easier for the media corps because Reality TV is also cheaper to produce since you don't 'have to' pay the people living or making up the stories. Behind-the-camera staff generally don't get paid nearly as much as the front-of-camera folk. However, this glut of Reality TV disenfranchised a sizable viewership - people who don't particular enjoy watching strangers ganging up and seducing, then betraying, then beating up on, and finally exiling other strangers all in the name of some fun and 'winning'. (Hitler's minions were only following orders; this batch are 'only playing a game'. Same diff. Bottom line: They're both amoral asses.)

    The TV disenfranchised folk mostly migrated to web-based versions of TV programming. Interesting thing about this is that: Hey, these are the shows winning coveted media awards! So apart from losing viewership, therefore media ad share/$$$, they're also losing any creative legitimacy/respect. The below Econ101 model sorta shows how a model that doesn't have any self-correction built in can easily go off the rails*. Old media didn't think they could ever be disrupted: they were wrong. Worse still is that the geezers still running these media refuse to adapt.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobweb_model

    'Role of expectations

    One reason to be skeptical of this model's predictions is that it assumes producers are extremely shortsighted. Assuming that farmers look back at the most recent prices in order to forecast future prices might seem very reasonable, but this backward-looking forecasting (which is called adaptive expectations) turns out to be crucial for the model's fluctuations. When farmers expect high prices to continue, they produce too much and therefore end up with low prices, and vice versa.'

    • Whatever AI is running the OPEC market trades seems to have been programmed similarly shortsightedly because otherwise how the hell do you get a negative per barrel spot price.
    1462:

    whitroth @ 1355: Yeah. Geese are *nasty*. It was always a pain, when I was working, twice a year, when the Canada geese came and hung out on campus for *weeks*.

    The rubber coyotes were nothing but geese-botherers, the one year they tried them.

    I've seen a border collie trained to chase them off & it seemed to do a pretty good job.

    1463:

    Troutwaxer @ 1358: My own preferred solution to the problem would have been to take the most important hundred or so families (maybe up to 5000 people) and exile them, generally without being unpleasant about it; we will hire lawyers to be in charge of selling your land, you may take your knick-knacks and monies with you, get the best possible price for your house... but get the fuck out and don't ever come back, (because we will kill you then, as soon as you can be positively identified, and without trial) and that includes your children!

    Larger numbers than that chose self exile at the end of the Civil War; something like 20,000 moved to South America, particularly Brazil.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confederate_colonies

    As someone said above, Andrew Johnson has a lot to answer for!

    Perhaps not so much as y'all seem to think. Much of Johnson's bad reputation comes from his enemies writing the history of the Reconstruction during the Jim Crow era. The radical republicans trashed him for being too lenient and the south trashed him for the way the radical republicans had run reconstruction.

    On the afternoon of April 14, 1865, Lincoln and Johnson met for the first time since the inauguration. Trefousse states that Johnson wanted to "induce Lincoln not to be too lenient with traitors"; Gordon-Reed agrees.[112][113]

    [112] Gordon-Reed, p. 87. Gordon-Reed, Annette (2011). Andrew Johnson. The American Presidents Series. New York: Henry Holt and Company. ISBN 978-0-8050-6948-8.

    [113] Trefousse, p. 192. Trefousse, Hans L. (1989) (1989). Andrew Johnson: A Biography. New York: W.W. Norton & Company. ISBN 978-0-393-31742-8.

    Upon taking office, Johnson faced the question of what to do with the Confederacy. President Lincoln had authorized loyalist governments in Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee as the Union came to control large parts of those states and advocated a ten percent plan that would allow elections after ten percent of the voters in any state took an oath of future loyalty to the Union. Congress considered this too lenient; its own plan, requiring a majority of voters to take the loyalty oath, passed both houses in 1864, but Lincoln pocket vetoed it.
    Johnson had three goals in Reconstruction. He sought a speedy restoration of the states, on the grounds that they had never truly left the Union, and thus should again be recognized once loyal citizens formed a government. To Johnson, African-American suffrage was a delay and a distraction; it had always been a state responsibility to decide who should vote. Second, political power in the Southern states should pass from the planter class to his beloved "plebeians". Johnson feared that the freedmen, many of whom were still economically bound to their former masters, might vote at their direction. Johnson's third priority was election in his own right in 1868, a feat no one who had succeeded a deceased president had managed to accomplish, attempting to secure a Democratic anti-Congressional Reconstruction coalition in the South.

    He seems to have tried to steer a course of reconciliation along the lines that Lincoln had proposed, but the radicals were having none of it.

    1464:

    I remember being shocked to find out (on this blog) that it's common for Brits applying for middle-management and higher jobs to avoid any identification/link with any political party.

    I suspect you will find that is true for people in general, and not exclusive to either the Brits or middle-management or higher.

    How many people walk into a job interview and state their political preference?

    At election time, how many people put elections signs in their yards?

    They're avoiding politics because of job/career security. Great - so your better/well-educated start-of or mid-career folks have to bury their heads in the sand so that they can pay their rent? This means entrenched cultivated ignorance of what's going on socioeconomically and politically. Plus - this also likely means a much lower voter turnout among this demo.

    Um, there not avoiding politics - they simply are keeping their jobs and personal life separate.

    Those with an interest will still be following political reporting, political panels on TV, voting, etc.

    The media component is somewhat related: each media continues to operate as though nothings has changed or ever will change - despite ad revenue continuing to drop for 'old media'

    While I am sure there are some who are blindly sticking their heads in the sand, most aren't - it's just simply a case that there is no easy/magical solution to the problem.

    The first couple of Reality TV shows were big enough audience draws to spawn a lot of wanna-be's.

    Reality TV predates the start of the decline of traditional media - and while certainly cheaper it also had an advantage that it wasn't something you could timeshift because you needed to be able to discuss the latest happenings at work/school the next day.

    But it's drawback is no long term revenue - people (in general) aren't watching reruns of reality TV the same way they are of Friends, Dr. Who, etc.

    However, this glut of Reality TV disenfranchised a sizable viewership

    Hype does not equal reality.

    Reality TV, while a viewer number juggernaut, didn't take over TV. There was far more traditional TV on each weeks schedule than there was reality stuff.

    It's just the media hype/popular culture made one mistakenly believe it had entirely taken over.

    Example - CBS - home of Survivor, Big Brother, etc. still dominated traditional viewing with regular shows.

    And if one glances at the teen media market, or even more mainstream of the time sources like People magazine, you would see many hyped articles about the latest shows on CW/TheWb/etc - yet their actual ratings were usually terrible and the shows frequently never made it to a second season.

    The TV disenfranchised folk mostly migrated to web-based versions of TV programming. Interesting thing about this is that: Hey, these are the shows winning coveted media awards!

    It's not so much the were TV disenfranchised, as they didn't want to sit in a family room and watch the big screen on the wall.

    They are watching their content on their phones on the bus, in the library, in bed, etc.

    But more importantly, the web based content producers are free of government censorship, and hence the reach of moral minority.

    Not so much web based, but many of the big shows of the last couple of decades - Game of Thrones, Sopranoes, etc - simply couldn't be done on broadcast TV because of the politicians pandering to the religious right (and likely some other groups) - think nipplegate. Thus in some respects traditional media was forced to fight with their hands tied behind their backs.

    Whatever AI is running the OPEC market trades seems to have been programmed similarly shortsightedly because otherwise how the hell do you get a negative per barrel spot price.

    Nothing to do with AI - simple market realities. Pandemic shuts down world, suddenly no need for all the oil slushing through the system - but there is still a cost to storing that oil.

    Now add in the wall street idiots playing games with trading based on guessing future prices, and you get a negative price when their is an artificial date deadline.

    1465:

    Only if that's where Vegans are from....

    Lyra... "Beta Lyra has, seven moons for love"

    Sorry, movie song from my youth... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_Pilot

    1466:

    "Nothing to do with AI - simple market realities. Pandemic shuts down world, suddenly no need for all the oil slushing through the system - but there is still a cost to storing that oil.

    Now add in the wall street idiots playing games with trading based on guessing future prices, and you get a negative price when their is an artificial date deadline."

    Dont forget the Saudis and the Russians getting into a price war at exactly that time as well.

    1467:

    timrowledge @ 1360: Talking about people from the US being stupid - I live on Vancouver Island. It is not part of the route from any part of the US to Alaska. I think anyone able to read a map can work that out.

    Americans are not supposed to be allowed into Canada right now. There is an (unfortunate) exception to allow them to drive from the lower 48 to Alaska, on condition they don’t stop and infect us. They are supposed to go direct, have provisions so they don’t need to enter any stores or eateries, and just keep moving.

    So how the fuck are we seeing in influx of US registered vehicles on my island? I’m seriously thinking of pulling out the heavy weaponry. Maybe a few claymores.

    Looking at the map just now, I don't see any way to get onto Vancouver Island that doesn't require you to use the government owned ferries1.

    Maybe they were already there & you never noticed them until the border was closed.

    I never saw many people with Canadian plates driving around down here, but there were some (and not just Québécois headed down to Florida on I-95); people who came here to live (for a while) and didn't bother to re-register their cars. Also lots of cars with California, Texas, Oregon plates ... and those are just the ones I regularly see when I take the dog out for a walk.

    South Carolina or Virginia plates are so ubiquitous I don't even notice them anymore.

    1"Organized as a privately held company, with the provincial Crown as sole shareholder"
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BC_Ferries

    1468:

    I will note that when I was dungeoning, we were either exploring, or on a quest. Never played the "go dungeon crawling and kill everything". Killing was "oh, shit, here they/it comes".

    Orcs (and goblins and hobgoblins) tended to attack. Pretty much always. But then, whether or not they were created by Morgoth, if we assume their lives are perhaps shorter than humans (40 for an old one? 45?), they've been set up for hundreds of generation listening to FAMN (Family of Morgoth), then FAUS (Sauron) propaganda about humans.

    Hmmm... trying to remember ever setting up an ambush, and I'm not getting a response from my memory.

    Read the Silmarillion. Don't think I've read books post that.

    1469:

    JBS & Troutwaxer From what I can see at this distance & time, the US pres you really want to blame is Andrew JACKSON - who appears to have been a pure, complete & total arsehole, as well as a racist mass murderer.

    1470:

    “Major smuggling operations” The last of these that I encountered was whilst I was keeping the king’s phone working in 1980s Saudi Arabia. In order to win contracts ...take the minister of PTT to... urgent conferences in Bangkok, my company bought a Boeing 707. The minister, who’s name I’ve forgotten, didn’t do customs, very bearded, beweaponed and fanatical muttawah customs, and neither did our American pilots who regularly entertained a lot of people with astonishing Betamax and red-label presents.

    1471:

    Like that, guardianship. IIRC, some versions of Judao-Christian myth speak of "stewardship".

    1472:

    The only thing more dangerous than working on a farm was working in a factory.

    Too many fools have no idea what they allowed, stupidly thinking "oh, I'm so important to management, that I have to work 60, or 70, no, 80 hours this week!".

    There's no difference between the gig economy and 100 years ago (pre-WWI).

    1473:

    And the most scary bad person of them all: GET AWAY FROM HER, YOU BITCH!

    1474:

    Tim H. @ 1379: The "Kleptocracy" may imagine they're dismantling the middle class, but they're actually gnawing the foundations, it's as if the radiator cap on a classic Rolls started eating the frame and suspension. If there was anything like a plan, they'd delay their HR Giger style exit until some ersatz heaven had been built to receive them, now it looks like "What falls down first?".

    The "Kleptocracy" neither know nor care that they are dismantling the middle class and/or "gnawing the foundations". They live in their own little trust fund bubble of denial.

    1475:

    One small disagreement: consumerism may, in fact, be a more subtle attack on socialism. It certainly gets the rubes' money out of their wallets and back to "where it belongs".

    1476:

    And why the US religious right needs to have Trump and the GOP senators win in November:

    US Supreme Court blocks Louisiana abortion law

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/29/politics/abortion-louisiana-law-blocked-supreme-court/index.html

    I suspect this means any planned challenges to roe v wade may be slowed down in the hope they can get a better court.

    1477:

    I am inclined to support your position, but vis a vis US license plates on Vancouver Island - there is the Seattle-Victoria ferry, which then leads to the Port Hardy-Prince Rupert Ferry, which is then very close to Alaska and all that entails. It is actually a much more appealing route than the Alaska Highway, which is endless and empty.

    1478:

    Oh, yes, please, let as many as possible get on their yachts.

    First mate, prepare the Nautilus for sea!

    1479:

    No, no, no. Whenever we went dungeoning, they attacked first. For that matter, the same is true in Tolkien.

    But then, as I noted above, Morgoth's, then later Sauron's Fiery Orc Xpress news is the only thing they get to read about humans....

    1480:

    In the US, what I've wanted...

    Both to graduate high school, get a GED (what you can get if you drop out, then later drop in), or RUN FOR OFFICE: you must take, in public, no phone, etc, and pass, the same test that immigrants must take to become a US citizen.

    I mean, why shouldn't you have to show you're qualified to run for an office by a test?

    1481:

    About that... until my last job, where supporting the government, a lot of folks talked politics to a certain degree, everywhere else I'd ever worked, the standard rules for working in an office were the same as the old men's clubs: you don't discuss sex, politics or religion at work. Ever.

    1482:

    "if we assume their lives are perhaps shorter than humans (40 for an old one? 45?)"

    No - they live a very long time. There's a bit in LOTR where a couple of orcs are reminiscing about the good old days as a small and independent bandit gang in the hills before Sauron showed up and started collecting all the orcs into his armies. They were basically GEd from Elves, and seem to have retained at least the longevity characteristic. It's just that their attrition rates in battle are horrific, and even if there aren't battles going on any disagreement between two orcs (argument over who's got the viler shade of green snot, for instance) tends to end up being resolved by one of them knifing the other to death.

    How the losses are replaced is not entirely clear, but the mechanism is conventionally mammalian, it just doesn't seem to happen a lot in the absence of some provided infrastructure to facilitate breeding. I guess it's something like left to their own devices they tend to strangle the babies to stop them crying or something unless there's something bigger and nastier to make them not do that.

    1483:

    David L @ 1384: alligators

    Did you catch the story about the 7' one down in Fuquay Varina (10 miles south of JBS's house) they noticed in a pond as the suburbs encroached.

    For some reason the new homeowners didn't want to share space with something that could eat pets and small children.

    PTB moved it to the eastern swamps.

    Any time you hear about an alligator in this part of the state, it's there because someone deliberately turned it loose there.

    I hadn't heard about one in Fuquay Varina, but it doesn't surprise me. The last one I remember in this area was one that was released into a pond in the Hedingham subdivision.

    I don't know if THEY ever caught it or if it died when winter came or if it somehow managed to traverse the half mile or so over to the Neuse river where it could have escaped downstream.

    1484:

    Andrew Jackson took office (and left office) well before the Treasonous Slaveholder's Rebellion, so he's not really a part of the discussion about how The South was handled after the Civil War.

    That being said, I'd agree that Jackson was a person with substantial faults, including his lack of empathy for members of other races. Of course he also had substantial military and organizational skills, and he was the right man at the right place during the War of 1812 (at least if you were on the American side.)

    1485:

    I would dispute that the Orcs attacked first. I would agree that the Dungeon Master caused them to attack first. Once you've gotten the idea that "demonization of the other" might be a thing your perspective on Orcs might well change.

    1486:

    War of 1812... which leads to the question I have long had, as to why, for the 4th of July, we always end the concerts (complete with canon) with an overture celebrating the DEFEAT of US's first, and in 1812, still our ally... France.

    1487:

    Maybe I should say, "...one's perspective on Orcs might well change."

    1488:

    It wasn't me, it was the roll of the dice, man!

    What, you don't like my, ahhh, (d)roll answer?

    1489:

    Because we're Americans, and we like cannon! They go boom and that's really, really cool! Fuck the French and hand me my goddamn Freedom Fries!

    1490:

    Ok... so the "good old times" were, in fact, about 100 years before - remember that the Necromancer lived in Myrkwood, until Gandalf sussed him out.

    How long they live is still not clear. As "lesser" compared to the Elves, they may not live thousands of years.

    In addition, their, ahh, culture seems very robber gang-oriented. Think of the band of robbers in Seven Samurai.

    Reproduction - if their losses in battle are horrific[1], then one must assume rapid reproduction, and a relatively low (compared to humans) child and mother mortality rate.

    This suggests that, like Dwarves, they keep their women isolated from the world, perhaps in harems.

  • Horrific losses in battle suggests that they are, indeed, used to small melee combat, not fighting as an army, like the Picts charging the Roman armies, each brave as brave can be, while the Romans support and defend each other.
  • 1491:

    I consider the word "yacht" misleading in such a context. To me a "yacht" is one set of surfaces designed to react against the air and another set desgined to react against the water to produce a resultant movement in a specific direction, with an environmental support module for humans in the support platform, and the whole thing designed to withstand the kind of conditions under which the propulsion system can give a useful output.

    A yacht is not just the environmental support module with an engine attached: that's a motor boat. And it certainly isn't a sodding great blob full of gin and top hamper that has to put into port every couple of days to slurp up a few thousand gallons more diesel and is basically unseaworthy in any kind of sea conditions other than the comparatively rare subset shown in the photos in holiday brochures. All that needs to be done with those is to keep them out of port for a while (Been at sea since March, have you? All the time? In that? Pull the other one, it's got bells on) until it gets a bit breezy and then they won't come back.

    1492:

    whitroth @ 1401: Harry Potter? I've known about redcaps since the seventies, if not the late sixties, long before there was any Harry Potter. It's that I hadn't seen MAGAnuts referred to them as that, and it's perfect.

    Ok. I thought you were referring to the mythical creature. Until you spelled it out just now, I had never heard it used as a term for MAGA hat wearing idiots.

    The only way I'd ever heard it applied to people was "Red Cap Porter". A "Red Cap" was one of the guys at the station who carried you baggage from the train to your taxi (or whatever car was there to pick you up from the station) ... or who took your baggage from the car to the platform. I had an aunt who always took the train from Asheville, NC to Durham, NC (when there was still passenger service to/from Asheville) & I remember the "Red Caps".

    Later passenger rail service to Durham was discontinued & we'd have to drive up to Greensboro to pick her up, but the station there still had "Red Caps". And in the 1950s there were"Red Caps" employed at RDU airport.

    1493:

    _Moz_ @ 1408:

    You can selectively quote me in a way that's deliberately misleading all you like, ancient virgin, and it won't change my opinion of you one bit.

    Right. That's the pot calling the kettle black. Never going to have the plank removed?

    1494:

    The OED agrees with you, but the Popular Press has used the term 'yacht' to refer to what is commonly and better described as a gin palace for some decades. I suspect that OGH is not a yachtsman ....

    1495:

    I suspect their reproduction is pretty unsuccessful when they are left to their own devices. Their numbers seem to gradually decline in normal times but then explode when some big nasty bugger wants them to fight a war with. It sounds to me like they need to be farmed, basically; after all they are basically an artificial species, in the same way as the various familiar human-bred versions of what were originally wild animal species which now depend on human intervention to breed successfully.

    This also of course means that orc armies contain very few experienced soldiers but lots and lots of raw rookies. Kitchener armies, basically. Individually eager and dangerous fighters but with no idea how to cooperate effectively on the field (the latter exacerbated by orcs' uncooperative nature), so they get slaughtered; similar to your point about Picts but with a different set of causes. Tolkien of course had the T-shirt.

    1496:

    Over here, it means these chaps, in reference to the headgear depicted about half way down the page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parachute_Regiment_(United_Kingdom)

    1497:

    whitroth @ 1480: In the US, what I've wanted...

    Both to graduate high school, get a GED (what you can get if you drop out, then later drop in), or RUN FOR OFFICE: you must take, in public, no phone, etc, and pass, the same test that immigrants must take to become a US citizen.

    I mean, why shouldn't you have to show you're qualified to run for an office by a test?

    FWIW, you can frequently find the "test" on-line. I've run through it several times just for a lark, and I don't think I've ever gotten more than one wrong answer out of a hundred questions. Most of the questions don't really require any knowledge you can't get from just staying awake in 4th grade Social Studies class.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-1K2LTuIBk

    1498:

    Right, that is what I meant, the mythical nasty creature - I'd never seen it used to describe MAGAhats.

    But, heh, heh, heh, I'll wager 99.9% of the MAGA have never heard of redcaps... with the exception you mention - railroad porters - and they'd consider it even a worse insult, given that most were Black.

    sigh "And the sons of engineers, and the sons of Pullman porters, Ride their fathers' magic carpet made of steel...."

    1499:

    I dunno. So, perhaps maternal and infant mortality is pretty high... or maybe the babies kill each other, and the mothers keep popping them out.

    I'd suspect that humans and other predators were part of the cause of their population limits.

    Based on the troops Frodo and Sam met in Mordor, they really were cannon fodder.

    1500:

    My take on Orcs, at least in Dungeons and Dragons, is that they have a major problem with long-term strategic forecasting. An Orc who doesn't die in battle is lucky to live 80 years. An Elf, on the other hand, can easily live to a thousand years old.

    So if you're an Elven king you can train someone in a couple-hundred years to manage some subset of your long-term strategies, and they can spend the next eight-hundred years engaging in subtle, long-term plotting against one of your enemies. So it's possible to make a gain, wait a hundred years until your enemy's grandchildren have forgotten how you did it, then make another gain... until after six or seven-hundred years your enemies have lost all their power and you've barely exerted yourself.

    So Orcs, as the primary enemies of the Elves, have a serious strategic deficit to overcome. Thus they tend to seek out people like necromancers, high-powered undead, ambitious gods and other immortals, then trade muscle for long-term strategic thinking. If the Dark Lord or Lady they've found is somewhat enlightened, the Orcs have a golden age - all the advantages of civilization are open to them. If their Dark Lord/Lady is not enlightened, they end up as disposable thugs and live in caves. If they can't find a Dark Lord/Lady, then they make weird, random attacks against the local Elves, hoping to knock some essential piece off the board.

    1501:

    Right, that is what I meant, the mythical nasty creature - I'd never seen it used to describe MAGAhats.

    Yes, I checked, and I seem to be the only one online who's alleged that there are behavioral similarities between El Cheeto's supporters and the legendary goblins of the Scottish border who haunt the ruins of lost conflicts and are repelled by genuine Christianity (like caring for the sick, the poor, migrants, the disadvantaged, the different, and so on).

    The fact that it hasn't been used suggests rather strongly that the clever types who don't use it are thinking of the Red Cap Porters, Red Hat Linux, and other more honorable groups, and don't see the point in inadvertently offending them. Fortunately for everyone, I'm not a trendsetter, so my use of redcap hasn't caught on.

    Besides which, I'm sure the Proud Boys and other bottom feeders would be happy to own the supernatural redcap image, if anyone took the time to point it out to them.

    Sadly, the name does fit the MAGAts rather well.

    1502:

    I've never heard the Paras referred to as Redcaps - that's the Military Police. Paras are red berets, not redcaps. https://www.army.mod.uk/who-we-are/corps-regiments-and-units/adjutant-generals-corps/provost/royal-military-police/

    1503:

    I've always considered 'yacht' to require a modifier. At least as far back as Swallows and Amazons era, if not Victorian times, a vessels intended for entertainment purposes (as opposed to work) would be either motor yachts or a sailing yachts.

    And having typed it several times, now the word yacht looks weird....

    1504:

    Wikipedia isn't a good source, and neither is Annette Gordon Reid.

    This leaves out an enormous amount of what really happened, numero uno was that Andrew Johnson was determined to bring back into the House and Senate all those members who had treasonably left to form the treasonable entity the Confederate States of America, lobbied indefatigably to get Britain and France to recognize it as a nation, and all the rest. That was the start. Those who objected most strongly he determined to kick out of office such as Stanton and Seward. Plus he was ignorant sod, incapable of governing and a drunk -- you should read the first hand accounts from around the nation as he drunkenly threw out his whiny, weeping so-called campaign speeches as he attempted to get nominated and elected. He was determined to get rid of the Freeman's Bureau and basically go back to the status quo for African Americans, and thus made implacable enemies of Thaddeus Stevens, Henry Wilson, Charles Sumner and the other overt abolitionists still in the government. It was General Grant who kept the government together until he was elected president.

    As for 1812 and France -- France was attacking the US pretty much as Britain was, in the lead-up to this war.

    Andrew Jackson indeed made Dixie safe for the constant spread of the slaveocracy, and was evile sob in most ways, and totally a racist, but he was also a Union man to the death and ground to dust the 1830's attempts of John C. Calhoun, "that archfiend from hell" whom he supposedly regretted on his deathbed still not having hung,

    1505:

    On the subject of Andrew Johnson, I think you want to be replying to JBS, who made the post you're objecting to. I didn't know much about Jackson, however, so thanks for the story about Calhoun.

    1506:

    Never going to have the plank removed?

    I'm sorry for what I said. I withdraw my claim that states cannot be kicked out of or voluntarily leave the USA and apologise for getting it wrong.

    1507:

    it's common for Brits applying for middle-management and higher jobs to avoid any identification/link with any political party.

    That's politeness, and an expectation of reciprocation. In my workplace we had to explain to the American that "talking politics" was not something we enjoyed him doing.

    You have to remember that to some people "talking politics" means enthusiastically explaining to someone that they should be killed, the painful methods that should be used to kill them, and the many ways they are a blight on society. Often in terms of "everyone knows" and "it's obvious that" their target is inherently not entitled to human rights, or even the rights we grant some animals. I don't enjoy those discussions, and I have a bit of a reputation for being able to deal with people like that and find suitably savage come-backs. But most people aren't, don't and can't.

    It's much better if we all agree that no-one will come to work wearing their blue rosette or swastika armband because that way we avoid the whole nasty business.

    1508:

    BTW: this is hard for people are aren't "normal", and is one of the reasons we find it hard to be hired in some places. We cop a lot of abuse as well.

    For example, someone who turns up to work every day wearing a wheelchair is blatantly making the political statement "disabled people deserve jobs", and not everyone is going to passively accept that without arguing back.

    I do a similar thing by turning up on a bicycle. Some people really struggle with the implied critcism of their bad choices, so they either decide that I'm a bad person or come and argue it out with me. Others just quietly have a word with me about my deviance and expect me to justify it. Sometimes in terms of "I could very easily kill you, and I'm unlikely to be punished for that, so you should do what I say". Note that they are accurately describing our legal system, so complaining to that about their behaviour is pointless. I have complained about death threats SMS'd to me (so not ambiguous) and the legal system said "meh, whatever, come back if someone acts on them" (ie, after I'm dead).

    1509:

    Most of the questions don't really require any knowledge you can't get from just staying awake in 4th grade Social Studies class.

    Oh, well. I guess that wipes me out.

    1510:

    whitroth Yup - you've got it. In some of the specialist, unregulated metalworking industries, like file-making in Sheffield in the 1870's a man's life-expectancy was about 45, assuming he's made it to 15 or 20 in the first place. Fumes & dirt & meatl filings in the air did that to you ...

    mdive Same as Trump's model, Erdogan, who is, apparently, trying to turn Haga Sophia, back into a mosque ... ARRRGH!

    Pigeon This is a PROPER Yacht ... Re: Orcs ... Yes - hence the Uruk-Hai being much more dangerous. And in LotR terms ... Sam Gamgee is the absolute classic tommy in the trenches, isn't he?

    1511:

    Wipes out pretty much the GOP here in the US.

    1512:

    War of 1812... which leads to the question I have long had, as to why, for the 4th of July, we always end the concerts (complete with canon) with an overture celebrating the DEFEAT of US's first, and in 1812, still our ally... France.

    Well first off it was written to celibate a Russian victory over French invaders.

    The Year 1812 Solemn Overture, festival overture in E♭ major, Op. 49, popularly known as the 1812 Overture,[1] is a concert overture written in 1880 by Russian composer Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky to commemorate the successful Russian defense against Napoleon's invading Grande Armée in 1812. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1812_Overture

    As someone else noted. Cannons. As a part of an outdoor concert leading to fireworks. What's not to like. :)

    The year apparently was a messy one for many countries.

    1513:

    Yep. When my recent ex and I were in the UK for Worldcon in '14, one of the things she wanted to do was take a trip into a mine. North of Blanau Ffestinog, we stopped for a tour of a closed-down slate mine.

    If I have this right, the started working in the teens (early teens?), if they didn't get killed or maimed in the mines (btw, they were "independent contractors", for real), they might last 15-20 years, and afterwards, they'd be up above, cutting the slates. Might last another 10 years before emphysema got them.

    1514:

    Of course, some of them must have lasted longer. I was assured by the guy demonstrating slate cutting (and of the tour group, you can guess whose then-wife shoved him forward to try it) that if I had a roof of good Welsh slate, if a tile didn't last 300 years, I should contact the original slate cutter, and he'd happily replace it.

    1515:

    I tried to do that right but evidently 'reply' on this forum allows only a single reply reference? :(

    I apologize. I thought I was doing "reply" to all three of the different comments.

    1516:

    https://www.exeter.ac.uk/news/research/title_801967_en.html

    Lead author Dr Edmar Almeida de Oliveira said: “This is an area where dark earth lush forests grow, with colossal trees of different species from the surrounding forest, with more edible fruit trees, such as taperebá and jatobá.”

    The number of indigenous communities living in the Amazon collapsed following European colonization of the region, meaning many dark earth areas were abandoned.

    In some ways "scientists confirm the bleeding obvious", but in other ways useful confirmation and the side notes about population collapse suggest they don't consider that contentious any more.

    1517:

    I've seen a border collie trained to chase them off & it seemed to do a pretty good job.

    Domestic geese are both social and territorial. If they grow up with the dog they will probably accept it as part of the landscape. Same with their people.

    But they might also decide that a particular dog is a bitch and they hate her, and they might do the same with you.

    Either way they have limits. You can come into the paddock but not closer than this to the nest, but the dog can lie next to the nesting goose.

    And him... he can fuck right off. We will help him fuck right off. We will help him very much.

    Many animals are like this, and some of them can tell individuals apart. Some can't. And some don't care. I've known an alpaca who just did not like women. Did not mind girls and liked men. Same with one of the magpies I rode past one spring. Yellow bike helmet = death by magpie. Other colours of helmet got a casual swoop if the magpie felt like it. The ones my aunt fed did not seem to mind me riding my bike at all, but hated the postie (I wouldn't want to be a postie in spring, lots of magpies and as a species they don't like bike riders).

    1518:

    I mean, why shouldn't you have to show you're qualified to run for an office by a test?

    Who decides the test and who administers it? Straya famously used the "50 word dictation test" to exclude anyone it didn't like, often by the official choosing a language unknown to a person they didn't like (Gaelic in one famous instance).

    https://www.naa.gov.au/learn/learning-resources/learning-resource-themes/society-and-culture/migration-and-multiculturalism/immigration-restriction-act-1901

    We also had the "Howard Test" quite recently the had a number of questions suggested by the Prime Munster of the day, John Howard. The current test is multichoice from a limited list of questions IIRC, and those can be studied online. Most MPs could pass that if they needed to because they have university educations, meaning that it could easily become just another class barrier to entering parliament.

    FWIW I "passed" the online version of the test first time because I am some combination of lucky and have a wide knowledge of pointless trivia ("the state flower of Victoria"). My Vietnamese father-in-law found many of the questions incomprehensible (WTF is a "state flower")

    1519:

    either motor yachts or a sailing yachts

    A lot of catamaran hulls these days are designed to be set up either way. You can buy them either with a pair of ludicrously large diesels and no mast, or with slightly smaller diesels and a sailing rig. You can't convert them after they're built, but the hull moulds are the same. Those ones tend to be marina maidens whichever setup they have, because while they have triangular sails they are only technically capable of sailing upwind (and generally the owners set them up so that sailing upwind breaks a lot of crockery).

    It's somewhat amusing to see those hulls with different setups close together in a marina.

    1520:

    Paras are red berets, not redcaps.

    Sort of. In the UK, you'd be more likely to have heard them described as "maroon berets" rather than "red" - as you've correctly pointed out, this differentiates them from the Royal Military Police...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51553815

    1521:

    Not a problem. You can only reply to one person, then you have have to insert any additional replies manually, so you could reply to me and then write "@JBS" or something similar, then two paragraphs down, "@Pigeon." The software won't know what you're doing, but the people will. :-)

    1522:

    AJ @ 1502: I've never heard the Paras referred to as Redcaps - that's the Military Police. Paras are red berets, not redcaps.
    https://www.army.mod.uk/who-we-are/corps-regiments-and-units/adjutant-generals-corps/provost/royal-military-police/

    Plus (I may be wrong but ...) the "Paras" berets are the same color as the 82nd Airborne Division's berets, which are actually maroon
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maroon_beret.

    1523:

    Re: 'In my workplace we had to explain to the American that "talking politics" was not something we enjoyed him doing.'

    Curious what the polite office chit chat is in your neck of the woods when one of your co-workers drives by your place and sees an election sign on your front lawn.

    1524:

    I think this is a tolerable yacht.

    https://www.fraseryachts.com/en/sailing-yachts-for-sale/

    Though, if I had money to throw into a whole in the water, I'd probably get one, sleeps 4-6, white and natural wood....

    1525:

    David L @ 1512: War of 1812... which leads to the question I have long had, as to why, for the 4th of July, we always end the concerts (complete with canon) with an overture celebrating the DEFEAT of US's first, and in 1812, still our ally... France.

    Well first off it was written to celibate a Russian victory over French invaders.

    The Year 1812 Solemn Overture, festival overture in E♭ major, Op. 49, popularly known as the 1812 Overture,[1] is a concert overture written in 1880 by Russian composer Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky to commemorate the successful Russian defense against Napoleon's invading Grande Armée in 1812.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1812_Overture

    As someone else noted. Cannons. As a part of an outdoor concert leading to fireworks. What's not to like. :)

    The year apparently was a messy one for many countries.

    It's pretty cool when it's a live concert with real artillery. I've seen (and heard) it done that way twice - once with 105 mm M101A1 howitzers and once with period correct guns.

    1526:

    Re: 'Um, there not avoiding politics - they simply are keeping their jobs and personal life separate.'

    While most of your comments sound reasonable, together they convey this message:

    1- Let's not talk about [subject] because it's too uncomfortable. Yeah, right ... So this gets translated into: don't question authority, don't discuss the shortcomings of political policy, don't say/do anything that rocks the boat, etc. 'So sorry your kid is dying - but it's just much too uncomfortable for me to discuss such a deeply personal topic as [...].'

    2- The other subtext in your comments is: Any discussion about politics is about specific political parties and not about 'policy'. Nope - people should be able to 'discuss' policy/politics without being immediately branded as 'belonging' to such-and-such a 'party'. Arbitrarily pegging a topic as being exclusive to any one party automatically takes it off the table for civil examination and discourse.

    Nope - not buying into that!

    Re: Media & Ad spending -

    We must be seeing different charts because the stuff that I've seen shows online outperforming other media. Some media share data might be argued - a lot depends on how you slice and value the market/audience.

    1527:

    and once with period correct guns. Seen that maybe 10 times, and they never got the timing right. Properly the percussion section would have some sort of instrument with wires (or wireless low lag of some sort) to igniters on the period guns. Has anyone done that?

    1528:

    Troutwaxer @ 1521: Not a problem. You can only reply to one person, then you have have to insert any additional replies manually, so you could reply to me and then write "@JBS" or something similar, then two paragraphs down, "@Pigeon." The software won't know what you're doing, but the people will. :-)

    It's why I try to format all of my posts in a certain way - beginning with "person" @ "post number" so that it's clear who I'm trying to respond to and which post it was. I also put any of the post I'm replying to in italics.

    If I don't include some part of what was written, I am simply not replying to that part; not trying to change the meaning (or it's a typo that slipped through my proof-reading).

    I do try to avoid taking things out of context and I try not to distort what anyone else has written. I may disagree, but I won't change what someone wrote to make a straw-man.

    1529: 1477 - I’d agree except that the is supposed to be to use the most direct route and don’t mess about. Going via the island is most definitely going out of the way. And loudly boasting (unmasked, naturally) in a café about having cheated is decidedly naff.
    1530:

    "Hey, I bet you could make an RPG about building a house an arguing with planning departments, code officials, suppliers, contractors, buyers..."

    Talk about GrimDark...

    1531:

    when one of your co-workers drives by your place and sees an election sign on your front lawn.

    None of them know where I live, and more broadly that's on them because they're poking into a coworker's life outside of work. We don't have the Hobby Lobby (etc) bullshit for the most part, and what people do outside work is kind of outside the purview of the workplace. I mean, obviously with the ubiquitous invasive monitoring of people lives that is going on some employers take advantage of their access to that to be dicks, but in many ways that's just one more way they have to do what they're already doing.

    The thing is that most of us know as much as we care to about our coworkers politics. I wouldn't be surprised to find that my boss is grumpy that he counts as a property developer under NSW electoral law and thus can't directly donate to political parties (equally he might not any of that). I would be stunned if he donated to The Greens. Likewise my "lets nuke Mecca" coworker is more likely a member of the appropriately named "ALA" party (now renamed "Yellow Vest Party") than even the Liberal Party (Australia's equivalent of the Republican or Conservative parties). The Polish fake-refugee* who thinks scum like her should be deported... she's a Liberal voter but I doubt she donates or is a member.

    So not having those discussions in the office is as much about also not having fist-fights and people ragequit their jobs. My ex found another job during the plebeshite because her management were firmly of the view that anyone who didn't like NO campaigning in the office could shut the fuck up and do what they're told.

    • I think the renaming is to show that they have no principles, little political understanding, but do love a good bandwagon ** she says she lied to get in here, and that's why Australia shouldn't accept refugees and should deport all those Asians and Muslims (in Australia "Asian" means "south-east Asian", to us Bangladeshis are Indians).
    1532:

    Bill Arnold @ 1527:

    and once with period correct guns.

    Seen that maybe 10 times, and they never got the timing right. Properly the percussion section would have some sort of instrument with wires (or wireless low lag of some sort) to igniters on the period guns. Has anyone done that?

    I don't know. I've only seen it performed with artillery twice and both times the guns came in when I expected them to come in, but I don't know if they fired at the exact moment in the score where they were supposed to or not. The cool part was watching the "choreography" of the gun crews.

    I've heard it performed a couple of times where they used fireworks, the kind of PRO display that's usual for the 4th of July & I don't know if those were actually in time with the score either.

    1533:

    My experience is that better workplaces will have a fair degree of social stuff at work, and it's all pretty pleasant. Many people make their hobbies obvious and so on. Management step in to calm things down and make the boundaries of discussion obvious as required.

    But politics is particularly fraught as a topic, because it ... well, as one blatant example, turns people into refugees. So when you have one person from the refugee-creating group in the office and another from the refugee group, you kind of want them not to discuss politics if that can be arranged. I've been in an office where that policy failed and it was really ugly. The bits in English were loosely along the lines of "you terrorists should be exterminated" vs "you genocidaires should go back where you came from". With some very personal comments. Then it switched to a language I don't understand, then to violence, at which point we separated them and they both went home for the day.

    So... shall we discuss politics? How exactly should (say) a Likud member discuss politics with a member of Golden Dawn? Do you really want that while you're trying to work? Which, if either, should be encouraged to wear party insignia in the office?

    1534:

    Non-partisan, equal numbers on the committee that signs off on it, send it through Congress.

    1535:

    Curious what the polite office chit chat is in your neck of the woods when one of your co-workers drives by your place and sees an election sign on your front lawn.

    I had mostly forgotten how much fun (defined in various ways) it was to grow up where it seemed everyone knew your business.

    Mowing a field for an elder lady around 1970 and her neighbor came over to ask me to also mow his. And he had gone to school with my grandfather in time of 1900-1910.

    Finding out when grown that my 6th grade teacher was also a teacher when the grades were all in the same building when my father taught for a couple of years after WWII where he met my mother who was in her last year. And the father of said 6th grade teacher was who financed my father's side business of building houses one at a time.

    Basically in the community of 5K-10K with only 50K in the county it seemed everyone knew who I was, and my ancestors, on both sides, going back 2 generations. My great great grandfather moved to the area in 1824 and started a moderately large farm.

    1536:

    Hey, I bet you could make an RPG about building a house an arguing with planning departments, code officials, suppliers, contractors, buyers

    This would be a PTSD inducing session for most of my clients. The deal with these folks during the day every day.

    1537:

    ^^%%&I%$^&^%&*^%&^%&^

    My son's roommate did something stupid weekend prior to last 2 days. So he was told to go get tested. I was at my son's Sunday. Not to close to the idiot but close enough a few times. Mask on but still.

    Results should be in Wednesday.

    So now I've had to call the folks I was at today with some people who are at higher risk than normal. A client. We all had masks. But still.

    Plus I got my teeth cleaned today by someone almost in a moon suit.

    Crap crap crap.

    Called the client tonight. About to leave a message with the dentist office.

    CRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAP.

    Oh, yeah, the 3rd person in the apartment is a nurse as a client that does transfusions to transplant patients.

    Oh, yeah. My son is fit to be tied. Totally. Ready to throw out a roommate. Maybe after killing him.

    1538:

    I was just talking to Ellen about living in a community like that - if you fit in, it's nice. If you DON'T fit in, it's utter hell.

    I know my late wife grew up in a town in central/south Texas, pop about 2k or so, and HATED it. Stuck with the same damn stupid kids year after year after year in school. She was a) too tall (taller than most of the guys) and a reader.

    Thank you, big city boy here, very happy in big city. I know them, understand them, and love them.

    1539:

    Non-partisan, equal numbers on the committee that signs off on it, send it through Congress.

    So strictly a way for existed elected members to ensure that only people they approve of can join the club? Sort of like the two party rules that parts of the US already have, but more blatantly restrictive?

    Using the citizenship test is a cool hack because it means the people imposing it have to be able to pass it. But that only works because its primary purpose is something else, and the point is more to prevent it going too far out on the racist-and-awful limb that it's on.

    I think it would be more useful to allow anyone at all to run because I'm not convinced that the representatives we have are so excellent that they couldn't be better. In some cases I question whether they could be worse. Well, without being convicted or committed, anyway.

    1540:

    They're not your representatives silly...

    Quote from senator Matthew Canavan, FB post on his page 27th July 2017

    "It has been such an honour to represent the Australian mining sector over the past year."

    They don't even pretend that they're representing the electors.

    1541:

    My local member for a while was Marn Ferg, MP for Coal Mining and he was extremely good at it. He worked diligently with his peers on the deep brown wings of other parties to advance the interests of those he represented.

    My one actual contact with him was being told to get out of his office. I was there as a constituent, but I wasn't asking for open cut mining in Coburg so he wasn't interested.

    1542:

    He sounds (from the wiki page) like a right charmer.

    1543:

    I actually thought quite hard about it before going, because I don't want to be jailed for assault/murder and he has a reputation. But I thought it was important to go along and add my voice to the chorus ("make my voice heard" wasn't an option).

    He was also responsible for that area having a high independent and green primary vote. But equally obviously, he was put there because it's a solid Labour electorate and there's no real prospect of a Liberal candidate getting more than heckled. Now Labour are going all out because they're relying on Liberal preferences to hold the seat.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/03/batman-byelection-adani-casts-long-shadow-over-former-labor-stronghold

    1544:

    David L Even in London, that can happen. My father & I were both taught French by the same man .... And the SPanish main teacher was the same man ....

    1545:

    How much reliance can we place on this erm, "news" item? Or is it shit-dtirring to make the D's relax/ Anyway whom would they pick at this late date?

    1546:

    Re: 'My son's roommate did something stupid weekend prior to last 2 days.'

    Good luck to all, including idiot (ex-)roommate.

    1547:

    I don't think it's shit-stirring to make the D's relax. IMHO it's more a matter of internal GOP communications going external, either accidentally or on purpose; DT is notoriously hard to reach if he doesn't want to hear the message and at the moment it doesn't look like anything can save the Republicans this year - their news is simply getting worse and worse. I think they're hoping that if they throw Trump under the bus they might keep control of the Senate and then they can start having hearings on Joe Biden immediately after he takes office - all Ukraine all the time, or whatever they can come up with.

    To comment further on a couple things, First, I don't think the Democrats are going to relax; Hillary's loss to Trump is still a very fresh wound. Second, I don't think Biden is quite the shoo-in current polling might indicate. There's still five months to the election, plenty of time for Biden to make a horrible mistake, collapse on the campaign trail, etc.

    But in the ideal Republican world Trump announces that he will drop out of the race, he and Pence pardon each other somehow, and the Republicans run a state Governor who's done a decent job fighting the Coronavirus - Mike Dewine of Ohio, for example, or if worse comes to worse, Mitt Romney. (They get extra points if they can make the right person president ASAP, even though that person will be in office for less than a year.) At that point they reverse themselves on wearing masks and stay-at-home orders and see if they can get COVID-19 numbers to go down, then with any luck Biden is found in bed with the proverbial "live boy or dead girl" and they somehow eke out a win, or at least keep control of the Senate.

    But even if Trump drops out I don't think enough Republican governors are going to reverse themselves on mask wearing, social distancing, or stay-at-home orders to make a difference. Furthermore, this would all have to go down in the next couple weeks for the strategy to be effective - if Trump dropped out of the race in August, for example, it would be too late.

    But the key point is this: If Trump drops out of the race the Republicans have a decent chance of keeping the Senate if they play their cards right.

    1548:

    Re: 'Or is it shit-dtirring to make the D's relax/'

    My vote is for the above option.

    DT's got too much personally at stake - esp. ego/narcissism - to not run. Ditto for his family. He's also got Pence to kick into the foreground as a calming influence or target.

    There's also the money angle/scam ... Wonder how much of his 'campaign contributions' he'll siphon off into his personal account this time.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2020/02/19/trump-has-now-shifted-19-million-from-campaign-donors-to-his-business/#37e76e567c3b

    1549:

    DT's got too much personally at stake - esp. ego/narcissism - to not run. Ditto for his family. He's also got Pence to kick into the foreground as a calming influence or target.

    There's also the money angle/scam ... Wonder how much of his 'campaign contributions' he'll siphon off into his personal account this time.

    I definitely agree with this as well. It's important to note that my reply to Greg above is a report on the current Republican fantasy, and I would be shocked to see Trump drop out of the race.

    1550:

    Re: 'If Trump drops out of the race the Republicans have a decent chance of keeping the Senate if they play their cards right.'

    Nice sane analysis - except the central figure (DT) is not sane. The GOP (McConnell) would have to figure out how to get DT to persuade himself that his best option is to drop out. It's all about how things look.

    Other option also includes McConnell because he choreographed the impeachment including rules re: witnesses, testimony. Given this presidency, even odds that McConnell leaks the testimony via a tell-all book deal.

    1551:

    Didn't see your reply (1548) when I hit 'submit' (1549).

    Apologies if my reply comes across as carping. (The refresh doesn't refresh automatically for some reason.)

    1552:

    In full pedant mode the paras are the Red Berets and the Military Police are the Red Caps

    1554:

    Not a problem. I think we're very much on the same page where all this is concerned.

    1555:

    The problem for Pence is that the Presidential succession is defined in part by the constitution and by law. If he resigns now, Pence becomes President. If he AND Pence resign, the job falls to Speaker Pelosi. Since he's not under threat of impeachment, pardoning him for crimes he hasn't been indicted for looks rather silly.

    And then there's the separate issue that he owes upwards of half a billion to Deutsche Bank and other lenders over the next four years, and some of it are on loans he's personally guaranteed. While it's entirely reasonable to expect he'll try to stiff his lenders again (that's why he's working with Deutsche Bank after all), he's likely to be ruined if he goes bankrupt again.

    My suspicion is that he's in a lose-lose, and he knows it. If he gets re-elected, he gets four more years of screwing up in the world's most scrutinized job, and gets stuck living in the world's highest class prison for the same time (that's the description of the White House by previous presidents). If he loses, he's going to spend the rest of his natural life dealing with the fallout from his life up to that point, a situation that most likely includes financial ruin, and possibly contains a treason conviction. The latter also happens unless he dies in office.

    Biden, by contrast, is very well known in Washington, and that's probably in everyone's calculations. Now I'm not thrilled about having an old neoliberal in charge when we desperately need change, but he's a step in the correct direction away from this current shambles.

    Now, yes, the Republicans could stonewall Biden with endless investigations, but all that means is that southern California will get massive federal aid to combat Covid19 while Texas, Florida, and other red states can't get to the negotiating table, because they made themselves the president's enemies and refuse to seat themselves. And this can be done perfectly above-board, by the White House simply requesting that the Congressional delegation from each state meet regularly with the White House Covid19 task force to figure out what can be done for the state. If they refuse to meet because they're trying to gin up an impeachment charge, they're screwed, and if they do meet, they're collaborating with the enemy.

    My hope is that, if Biden gets elected, there will be about a year of grudging bipartisanship to start to clean up the mess left by El Cheeto. Then the election cycle will start in 2022, and cooperation might be harder. Although, depending on events, it might continue until 2023, when the 2024 Presidential race heats up. The point is to let the Democrats yet again do the dirty work of cleaning up after a Republican looting, then to campaign against their unpopular measures.

    1556:

    Good luck to all. Given the 50%-ish asymptomatic case thing, I hope you all fall in that 50%, if you got infected at all.

    1557:

    The problem for Pence is that the Presidential succession is defined in part by the constitution and by law. If he resigns now, Pence becomes President. If he AND Pence resign, the job falls to Speaker Pelosi.

    Trump isn't going to resign. But if he did, then Pence would become president and could nominate someone like Mike Dewine or Mitt Romney as Vice President. Once whoever Pence nominated for VP got Senate approval and was sworn in then Pence could resign.* Then the new VP would become President and proceed to fight Coronavirus the right way and run for President. The whole thing wouldn't take more than a week to play out.

    Keep in mind that this is purely hypothetical, and it's absolutely not going to happen, but the scenario above is perfectly constitutional.

    • OTOH, let Pelosi become president and run against her would be very attractive to certain Republican strategists.
    1558:

    25th Amendment, Section 2: Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

    So if the Democrats in the House don't play ball if Pence becomes President by succession, he can't resign without giving the Presidency to a Democrat.

    1559:

    Nah... the Civil Service comes up with the rules, then both sides attack it.

    Actually, though, it is possible to find people who will play non-partisan, because they're not modern GOP, and so can see what happens if they're on the outs.

    We do, however, need laws that corporations are NOT legal citizens, and have no expectation of political freedom of speech.

    1560:

    Not going to happen, even if some GOP want to keep their seats.

    Several folks mentioned ego - that's about equal to the other side of the coin: when he's out of office, and Biden has said he will not pardon - there will be so many criminal charges that he won't know which way is up.

    And the SDNY, freed from his appointee, will make it their entire mission to put him in jail FOREVER, as in, he dies in his cell, and they'll persnoally come and brick it up.

    And all the civil charges will make him, and his family, not only not billionaires, but not millionaires.

    Seriously - if/when he loses, I expect him, sometime between the election and the inauguration, to either flee the US, or be found "unresponsive".

    1561:

    Remember he's an extreme narcissist: being a "loser" is incompatible with his self-image. It's a trade-off in his head between the dissonance of being a "loser" and worrying about the future, and narcissists are generally terrible at forward planning (as we've seen with Trump). So it's possible that as the election enters the end-game, 4-8 weeks out, Trump may stand down in a snit and sulk, rather than risk going down hard and losing an election.

    (He might also try to nuke Liechtenstein or something, but I suspect the machinery in place might prove unpredictably creaky if he tries to bring the house down.)

    1562:

    Thanks. I'd point out that there doesn't seem to be much desire to make Pelosi president, either.

    I do happen to agree that Trump will not willingly surrender the office. About the only chance of him leaving before January is if he's found dead (presumably after that final pre-dawn tweet). I'd also add that the Republicans may start encouraging Trump to not wear a mask and to go to lots of rallies precisely because they don't want him testifying in court starting next year.

    1563:

    I'm pretty sure I don't want to dive back into the 2016 morass, but I seem to remember that Trump was a bit surprised that he got elected, and that the previous assumption was that he was raising campaign money that would get siphoned into his businesses when he failed in his presidential bid.

    So one possible scenario is that, per 2016, each campaign raises around $1 billion. Turns out, for various reasons (like inept campaigning) that a lot of the Trump's war chest remains unspent come November. Where does the money go?

    You have to remember, he's failed a bunch of times, so failing with hundreds of millions entering his pocket is not a bad place for him to be. Or so he thinks.

    1564:

    In reply, generally: There is also the point that IF "DT" drops out ... he's going to jail, because at least some States ( Like NY ) will put him on trial & jail him & if he does not drop out & then loses in Novemeber .... at least some States ( Like NY ) will put him on trial & jail him. Oops. [Note - first] The picture in # 1547 ( Troutwaxer ) of the R's still in control of the Senate, trying to pin irrelevant lying shit on Biden isn't pretty. If that happened with Biden Pres & a huge D majority on the lower house you have a real constitutional crisis. the separate issue that he owes upwards of half a billion to Deutsche Bank and other lenders over the next four years, and some of it are on loans he's personally guaranteed. (Heteromeles) I didn't realise he was that deep in the shit. [Note-second]The latter also happens unless he dies in office. Also (whitroth) if/when he loses, I expect him, sometime between the election and the inauguration, to either flee the US, or be found "unresponsiv [Note - third] Lastly: "Trump testifying in court? Really? And who would believe any single word he said, under oath or not .... ?

    Note: All ... There is a way out for an insane person in that postion, especially a Narcissist - is suicide. Um. Instant Pres Pence, shudder.

    Mind you, DT topping himself would set off all sorts of diverse amusements. Enough for an SF novel? - OR - at the least a crime thriller?

    1565:

    Bugger - hit "send" just too soon.... Charlie? How fast can you write? I'm not sure whathere to /snark or /not-snark about that. My head hurts

    1566:

    Must say there is a certain kind of amusement value in the idea of him hiding in the White House cellar and shooting himself, screaming that the Russians are coming.

    1567:

    I'd be amazed if they hadn't, because MIDI-controlled firework setter-offers are standard stage kit. Though they would still need to stuff the flashy bit on the end of the wire right through the touchhole so it was sitting in the middle of the charge, otherwise you'd still get a significant not-musically-accurately-predictable ignition delay. I can imagine that not being done for silly reasons and the intended accuracy consequently not being obtained.

    What they really need is a crew of old-time naval gunners. With the ship rolling from side to side if the bang doesn't happen at exactly the right moment in the roll you miss. So you have to be really good at guessing exactly how long before that you need to ignite it, which sounds impossible but with enough practice they could be really good at it.

    1568:

    How fast can you write?

    Sorry, just now beginning to get back to pre-COVID19 writing speed on the downslope to the end of a novel I started at the end of last October. I can maybe start the Trump-suicide-alternate-history some time in late 2024.

    1569:

    It depends if you're a military type who is naturally pedantic about such things, or a civilian whose knowledge of military matters mostly concerns a period before they existed :)

    Maroon, red, same difference, airburst explosive signalling device.

    1570:

    So it's possible that as the election enters the end-game, 4-8 weeks out, Trump may stand down in a snit and sulk, rather than risk going down hard and losing an election.

    That scenario is wholly believable, particularly if he is doing badly in the polls. It would be a last fuck-you to the Republicans who he would by that point see as traitors.

    1571:

    That's my thought. But note that he will not stand down unless defeat appears to be inevitable, and by an ignominious margin. If it's within a couple of percent or Fox News keep telling him he's got a chance, he'll gamble. Because that's the other thing he does.

    1572:

    Turns out, for various reasons (like inept campaigning) that a lot of the Trump's war chest remains unspent come November. Where does the money go?

    In general when a US politician retires or loses they get to keep all the left overs. Which is why so many are so well off. And as much as it sucks there ARE some reasons why it is done this way. Change here would be HARD.

    1573:

    Trump testifying in court? Really? And who would believe any single word he said, under oath or not ...

    Here in the US prosecutors LOVE people who tell obvious lies on the stand under oath.

    1574:

    Charlie @ 1568 And if it isn't "alternate" history?

    1575:

    Um, no.

    "Upset candidates can't console themselves by putting the dough toward a new yacht and sailing off to recuperate. The Federal Election Commission has strict rules about what federal candidates can and can't do with leftover campaign money, and the biggest directive is that they can't pocket it for personal use.

    Here's what a campaign committee is allowed to do with any lingering cash: it can donate the funds to charities or political parties; it can contribute $2000 per election to other candidates; and it can save the money in case the candidate chooses to run again. However, those regulations don't apply to the relatively new super PACs (Political Action Committees); this is only the third election where they have played a role, and there are currently no rules to stipulate what happens to that money beyond that it cannot go to fund another federal candidate. Much of that money tends to be returned to its original donors, used to wrap up the failed campaign, or donated to back a state-level candidate. The goal, however, is always to spend all of that money."

    1576:

    Maroon, red, same difference

    Too true. I'm red/green colour blind, so it's even less of a difference to me (at one point in the 1980s, our pipe band uniform jacket apparently changed from "rifle green", to "archer green"; nope, not a clue) - but the maroon machine get terribly upset if you describe it as pink. Or a hat. :)

    1577:

    Ooo, did you say that the Trump campaign can donate all the money to a charity? Perhaps the newly formed Trump Foundation for Underprivileged Lawyers and Estate Strategists? My goodness, he's the most charitable person you ever knew.

    Snark aside, I have no clue what will happen, although I think the odds favor the Biden/Black powerhouse ticket come November. I'll go out on a tiny little limb and predict:

    -There will be no major military October surprises (we're massively overstretched and ready to go twang. It costs very little to sit quiet and watch us implode. Then it'll be time for everyone else to weapon up).

    --There's a reasonable probability of another disaster between now and election day. The two leading candidates are Cat 5 hurricanes and swine flu jumping to humans in China, although I suspect there's a twofer deal on both for some unlucky "winner." Said disaster will make President Feckless look inept all over again.

    --The October Surprise #1 (well, maybe September surprise) will be the shambolic shutdown of most of higher education after an attempt at a full reopening. To give one example: Georgia Tech is reportedly planning for full classes in fall, and forbidding the profs (and others?) from wearing masks. So give this highly communicative community about 3-6 weeks, dorms and classrooms will be Covid19 hotspots, and they'll shut the campuses down again, losing metric buttloads of cash in the bargain and further pissing off the profs. And the kids will go home again in disarray, back to another two semesters of online learning. One hopes that certain deans and boards of directors will engage in round-robin circular firing squads until they get better planners in place.

    --October Surprise #2: An American Covid19 flareup that has nothing to do with universities, but everything to do with seasonal issues: hurricanes, fall harvests, etc. that move people around.

    --October Surprise #3: A big bank gets, erm, Chased off the cliff by its tens of billions of exposure to bad commercial real estate loan instruments, tranched and resold like it was 2007. Very much like it was 2007. The trigger for this problem is that office space is going unused in part because of the economic downturn, in part because lots of office people have learned to work more from home, in part because that's good for the climate. But it's not good for people who invested in big bets on commercial real estate. The root of the problem is that the Obama administration didn't clean the US financial sector's clock after 2008, and so they decided to keep doing what they'd been doing.

    There's my bets. What are yours?

    1578:

    And now that I know that only one auto reply works, you bet I will. :)

    Replying generally, every hour the people of the so-called United States allow him and his people to not be removed right this second, more people die and more years are added on to the amount of time it will take to recover economically and every other way from this catastrophe. If, indeed we ever recover, even when he is removed. But he and his must be removed right this minute and imprisoned. After the trials the death penalty for treason and willfully committing harm to the health and welfare of the people.

    But in the meantime, another potential pandemic -- another swine flu -- is emerging in China, while this one is still wildfiring.

    And climate catastrophe is just ramping up its game to full olympic championship effect.

    So, folks. . . .

    1579:

    The bad news is that weeks ago, I read an article saying that the economic collapse would hit the beginning of August, with all those CLIs, I think they're called.

    1580:

    --The October Surprise #1 (well, maybe September surprise) will be the shambolic shutdown of most of higher education after an attempt at a full reopening.

    If you go to the wash post site and search for college you'll find near the top of the results a 3 author article about why re-opening colleges this fall will be an utter failure. It's not the classroom but the entire college experience. Just way too many complicated personal interactions even if you deal with the dorms and classrooms.

    And if you do a google search on: There is no safe way to reopen colleges this fall

    You'll get all kinds of serious hits on both sides of the arguement. So we will do it. Then just maybe it will work. But I'm with H. I think it will be a disaster.

    And this doesn't even deal with sports. (I know. College sports are weird US things that makes no sense to the rest of the world.)

    1581:

    There's my bets. What are yours?

    What happens when Boeing and Airbus sales go negative and deliveries maybe so.

    They fly a plane to the correct airport for the hand off and no one shows up to sign the paperwork?

    1582:

    Sign posted at the entrance to a (most likely) thrift store in Arizona.

    If you choose not to wear a mask, we respectfully ask that you postpone your visit.

    We'll be happy to debate the efficacy of masks with you when this is all over and you come in

    to sell your dead grandmother's clothes

    TL;DR Masks required.

    1583:

    Agreed. If he does end up quitting, my guess is that he will do so at the worst possible time for the Republican Party, probably around October 15th or so.

    1584:

    I seem to remember that Trump was a bit surprised that he got elected

    According to Hiding in Plain Sight by Sarah Kendzior, Trump has been planning a run on the presidency for a couple of decades.

    https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250210715

    1585:

    As an exercise, consider all the underhanded ways to keep some of your campaign donations... it's not hard, and I'd guess that a smart person could keep as much as 30 percent without taking any serious risks.

    1586:

    I think we are fully into "lost the mandate of heaven" territory here. The next few months are going to get ugly.

    1587:

    CLOs. "Collaterized Loan Obligations" instead of "Collaterized Debt Obligations." Can I puke on my banker now?

    1588:

    They fly a plane to the correct airport for the hand off and no one shows up to sign the paperwork?

    For Boeing -- and I imagine Airbus are similar -- the hand-off is almost always carried out at Boeing Field. Larger/pricier planes tend to have their own ownership vehicles and I've seen film of the attorneys for Boeing and a customer signing the handover papers for a 747 on board it, in flight over the Pacific Ocean (so that it's outside US territorial limits at the time). With champagne to toast the deal afterwards: after all, each sale is $200M.

    (I'm guessing 737s and A31x/32x sales don't get quite that fancy treatment as they're for about $30M a pop, and maybe 50% of that is the purchase price of the engines.)

    Anyway, your first sign will be a giant pile-up of shiny new airframes in front of the Everett assembly line, or the equivalent at Toulouse. And the second sign will be shiny new planes being ferried to the boneyards for mothball storage. And the third and final sign of the apocalypse will be layoffs at the assembly lines (and you better believe neither Boeing nor Airbus are in a hurry to lay off the skilled workers who run the lines that bring in 10 digits of revenue per year and which can't be rapidly re-started if they have to down tools).

    NB: I once took a tour of the Boeing Everett works. That building is monstrous, and the sight of a moving vehicle assembly line that builds Boeing 787s -- 20-odd 120 tonne vehicles moving in lockstep at maybe a foot per hour, nose-to-tail, each of them 200 old-school feet long -- was just something else.

    1589:

    Saw that Washington Post article. Here's one from Inside Higher Ed: https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/just-visiting/lurching-toward-fall-disaster-horizon#

    Now personally, I hope reopening works. Problem is, the bright ideas about rapid reopening seem to be coming from the people in the boardrooms at the top, not the people in the trenches doing the teaching.

    The trench workers have varying needs. On one hand, the writing profs might prefer to have one-on-one teleconferences with students and rarely schedule a full class. On the other hand, the Chemistry Lab supervisors are tearing their hair out (as are the field ecologists, and who knows how many other hands-on teachers), because there's so much you can't do with a computer.

    I'm kind of waiting for kitchen Chem Ia to become a course. Even then, something like doing spectroscopy or PCR is impossible in most homes, and you do get safety and liability issues when Little Johnny burns down his parents' mansion because he screwed up his lab assignment. There are a lot of fields where I don't think you can develop professional level skills through online only teaching.

    So yes, it's a big ol' mess. We'll see how it rolls out. My hope is that no school bankrupts itself by pitching a total reopening, taking a lot of money, then having to shut campus down precipitously and losing that investment.

    1590:

    What's even easier is to simply make a separate reply to each person. I usually read with a pen to write down the comment numbers I want to reply to - I guess I'm getting well-organized in my old age...

    1591:

    All of it in many ways. Which was my point.

    Do a search for zombie charities. Here's on result. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect-podcast/2019/6/19/18629804/zombie-donors-on-the-loose

    Of course this is a US thing.

    And if you don't know how to get rich off a non-profit, you haven't thought about it for very long.

    1592:

    As an exercise, consider all the underhanded ways to keep some of your campaign donations

    You mean, like having the campaign rent space from you? Almost like having your Secret Service detail renting rooms and golf carts from your golf resort, no ?

    The Trumpish elephant-in-the-room that yins have been ignoring, is that the "hospitality" industry is in a major downturn due to COVID-19. Trump's hotels and golf properties are running at below the break-even point. When does Trump need to take out new loans, and from who?

    1593:

    Anyway, your first sign will be a giant pile-up of shiny new airframes in front of the Everett assembly line, or the equivalent at Toulouse.

    Already happening. At least for Boeing. Check out Spirit AeroSystems.

    Airbus just announced that they have cut production by 40% and are laying off 15,000.

    And both of these companies don't really manufacture airplanes. Mostly they assemble them from a huge pile of parts that arrive as needed. That means lots of suppliers will also be cutting jobs. I'm guessing maybe twice as many. My wife was terminated (retired as she had the time in) by an airline last week. We're in good shape. But the US airlines are cutting at least 30% for now. And like Boeing and Airbus there is a huge tail of people that are not directly employed by the airlines but only work if planes are in the air.

    I suspect the cuts will have to go twice that deep. At least in terms of production rates as there will soon be no one willing to take the planes.

    As to the hand offs, I suspect very soon there will be a no show of someone very important. They may be in the right town but get a call from the board at 5:00am saying don't go to the meeting.

    Also I think your plane prices are out of date. Double them for a delivered plane. But there are discounts. No one likes to say the final end of the year price.j

    If you listen closely to people in the airline business who are NOT making happy talk they are expecting this to last into 2025. And if they are saying that they really don't know when it will be over.

    1594:

    Martin Having a personal friend who was a officer-terrier 23 SAS - I met his whole platoon on one occasion ... yes, well. Good for drinking with, glad they are on our side

    Heteromeles A big bank gets chased off the cliff... Deutsche Bank perchance?

    Troutwaxer VERY well put. Especially since the racist & brutal Han are set to be the superpower for the next century.

    Erm, err. Charlie! AIRBUS - you said?

    1595:

    As for not signing the airliner ownership papers, it's more not making the final payment for them, and not taking the call from the nice exec from Airbus/Boeing who wants to have a 'discussion'. Followed by the planemaker putting the aircraft in question on the market. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airbus-airlines/row-over-undelivered-jets-as-airbus-threatens-to-sue-airlines-idUSKBN23C25D

    1596:

    They were also cutting green (undried) lumber. It shrinks as it dries. (It can also warp.)

    1597:

    They use photos of empty visitors' parking at hospitals as "proof" that the hospitals aren't full. The fact that people aren't allowed to visit doesn't seem to register.

    1598:

    While most of your comments sound reasonable, together they convey this message:

    1- Let's not talk about [subject] because it's too uncomfortable. Yeah, right ... So this gets translated into: don't question authority, don't discuss the shortcomings of political policy, don't say/do anything that rocks the boat, etc. 'So sorry your kid is dying - but it's just much too uncomfortable for me to discuss such a deeply personal topic as [...].'

    I'm not saying people don't discuss those things, just that it typically doesn't happen at work. Work is for work, and discussions generally will be more generic (and yes neutral) like sports or the latest hit show, etc.

    Now some coworkers going out for a meal and drink after work may well discuss politics, but that is personal time and not work time.

    To put it more bluntly, you are being paid to work for a company, and that means interacting with your fellow workers - politics (by its nature) can be divisive and interfere with that, which tends to make the boss/owner unhappy, which is not a good thing for your future paycheck collecting ability.

    Extreme example, an Ontario judge wore a Trump MAGA hat in court - and was suspended without pay for 30 days https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/zabel-hat-decision-1.4285487

    Essentially, unless your job is politics then politics really doesn't belong in the workplace.

    2- The other subtext in your comments is: Any discussion about politics is about specific political parties and not about 'policy'. Nope - people should be able to 'discuss' policy/politics without being immediately branded as 'belonging' to such-and-such a 'party'. Arbitrarily pegging a topic as being exclusive to any one party automatically takes it off the table for civil examination and discourse.

    I agree that they probably should, but in this current era that is likely expecting too much.

    The current topics, particularly in the US but also elsewhere, typically have a party aspect to them - there really isn't much that people discuss or debate where both/multiple/all parties agree on it.

    We must be seeing different charts because the stuff that I've seen shows online outperforming other media. Some media share data might be argued - a lot depends on how you slice and value the market/audience.

    I didn't say online media wasn't outperforming traditional media.

    As I said, the newer generation don't want to sit in a big room and watch a screen on the wall - hence that essentially means they are watching online media.

    And other than elections (which tend to focus ads on older people because they vote) the most coveted markets for advertisers in the younger generation - the traditional Nielsen 18-49 group - because they often haven't yet settled on a brand, or are willing to experiment - thus to reach that market they have to go online.

    Case in point, last year's federal election in Canada. For now TV still got most of the spending, but it is getting close to a tie. And as the older TV generation dies off, and the younger online generation ages into prime voting age, TV will lose to online media in election spending, as they are already for other ad spends. https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/tv-online-ads-take-lion-s-share-of-party-election-spending-new-reports-show-1.4996155

    1599:

    Oh, I know all of this.

    The small saw mill on my grandfather's farm wasn't torn down until I was in my late 20s. And was still in small scale operation until my teens.

    We thought it was fun to go there on the weekend when pre-teen and rid the lumber cart down the 50' track. Tiny guage rail road type setup. Until it went fast enough to jump over the 4x4 at the end and my cousin and I couldn't get it back up. We were 8 or 9 at the time. When his dad showed up looking for us as we'd be MIA for a few hours he got the cart back up told us to get in the truck and took us home. He looked pissed but I think he figured the hour or two we spend in the summer heat trying to get the cart back on the track was punishment enough.

    This place was of course a safety nightmare. 6' diameter saw blade on the main unit. All exposed belts and such. I was with my dad once when he fired it up to cut some boards for a clubhouse we were building in the woods. It was neat. But dangerous as hell.

    1600:

    I'm guessing 737s and A31x/32x sales don't get quite that fancy treatment as they're for about $30M a pop

    No, new current new-model 737s run ~$100M and I'd suppose A31x/32x are similar. I discovered that a while back while looking at the price of space launch rockets vs commercial aircraft. It turns out that they're quite comparable except at the ends of the distributions. Of course, (this was pre-SpaceX), you can use the airplanes for more than one flight each.

    1601:

    Essentially, unless your job is politics then politics really doesn't belong in the workplace.

    Totally. I work with some architects. They get a non trivial portion of their income from government projects. Plus they get to deal with construction projects in the current situation. I've been impress with how well the various people talk about the situation in non (&^%(*&#$ terms.

    1602:

    I recommend the Telarc recording: direct-to-disc, real cannon and church bells. They overcharged the cannon on one shot, and blew out some windows; on a vinyl version, you can see the 4Hz rumble.

    1603:

    More likely, a conviction on various charges of financial fraud. At state level, so not pardonable by anyone in the WH - NY is very interested in that, as it's their taxes that Himself was trying to avoid with changing valuations on real estate.

    1604:

    I read a couple of days ago that they're looking for someone to take over the lease on the Old Post Office Building in DC, the one they've been using for parties for friends and donors. It seems that with the virus around, and the notice Himself's physical/mental challenges are getting, that the income has dropped a bit more than they can afford.

    1605:

    Shell Wipes Out Up To $22 Billion From Major Oil and Gas Projects That article is short and sweet, thanks. My favorite paragraph: "It’s about fundamental change hitting the entire oil and gas sector. Within this writedown, Shell is giving us a message about stranded assets, just like BP did a few weeks ago." (David L has said he's in North Carolina, previous thread. I know(knew) a David L. of approximately the same age, also a sci-fi fan, very different bio.)

    1606:

    ... and pushing perl in the early nineties.

    Offtopic-ish but second half of 2020 seems to be off to a great start! https://news.perlfoundation.org/post/perl_7_announced_sawyerx_conference

    1607:

    Re: 'As an exercise, consider all the underhanded ways to keep some of your campaign donations...'

    He'll use his family (wife, in-laws, sons, daughter, etc.) plus any of the dozens of the shyster lawyers on his payroll that haven't yet been arrested, tried and found guilty. His youngest son is a minor (b2006) therefore probably immune from any serious criminal investigation and consequently a great way to divert funds with or without his express permission/knowledge.

    Next, he'll found a religion and probably a religious school. SCOTUS just ruled that religious schools should be supported/funded similarly to public schools. As John Oliver once covered: religions in the US are a license to print money, and not pay taxes.

    Meanwhile he'll continue with: deny, deflect, destroy until someone else with even more political clout/backing (McConnell?) stabs him in the back for the good of the Party.

    As for suicide ... I think that narcissists are likelier to fake an attempt than actually do the deed.

    1608:

    As for suicide ... I think that narcissists are likelier to fake an attempt than actually do the deed.

    I think it's unlikely because suicide is for losers and the only thing worse than people thinking you're a loser after you're dead is being alive to experience it because you failed.

    Not to mention that he's under adult supervision all the time, the SS are there to stop him dying, not just to stop someone else killing him.

    1609:

    Re: ' ... unlikely because suicide is for losers'

    Unless it's a matter of 'death before dishonor'. Nyeah - not DT.

    Forgot to mention 'judges' in my previous comment (1621).

    Given how some of DT's pals who were found guilty and sentenced have since been freed, voters will have to pay closer attention to who's running for these positions. No idea whether it's possible to do as some TV legal dramas suggest and shop around until you find the right judge but do think that if you stack the deck with like-minded judges, you're likelier to get off with only a wrist-slap.

    1610:

    Are you on drugs? Nothing you've said about me or my comments has any basis in what I've said or reality. But since you really seem to be the One of Many Names, that's par for the course.

    1611:

    And last time this was done I got the yellow card????

    [eyeroll]

    The above comment was made after his/her first 2 comments. What they said after that I have no idea what this is about. Drugs. Alcohol. Brain disorder?

    And the last might explain a lot. I deal with some people on other blogs as a moderator and it seems that the ones who refer to themselves in a plural sense might be schizophrenic. But in no way shape or form am I a doctor of any kids so this is just crazy idle speculation on my part.

    1612:

    Hi, SotMN,

    Cons - everyone is still on tenterhooks about Oct & Nov cons. Balticon, Memorial Day weekend, was virtual (and went really well). ConZealand is going virtual.

    Discon III, next year's Worldcon... we're still hoping. And yes, I'm in the organization that the Con Committee comes out of, and I'll be working the con, if it's not virtual, and maybe then. I know one of my daughters will, in either case.

    1613:

    Heteromeles @ 1555: And then there's the separate issue that he owes upwards of half a billion to Deutsche Bank and other lenders over the next four years, and some of it are on loans he's personally guaranteed. While it's entirely reasonable to expect he'll try to stiff his lenders again (that's why he's working with Deutsche Bank after all), he's likely to be ruined if he goes bankrupt again.

    My suspicion is that he's in a lose-lose, and he knows it. If he gets re-elected, he gets four more years of screwing up in the world's most scrutinized job, and gets stuck living in the world's highest class prison for the same time (that's the description of the White House by previous presidents). If he loses, he's going to spend the rest of his natural life dealing with the fallout from his life up to that point, a situation that most likely includes financial ruin, and possibly contains a treason conviction. The latter also happens unless he dies in office.

    Trump is not going to drop out. His only hope is to keep the con going. And that means he HAS to get reelected - by hook or by crook. He's in a lose-lose alright, but if he "knows it" it's subconscious, not something he can admit even to himself.

    I think there's a chance that the Greedy Oligarchs Party can hold on to the Senate and there's a chance the Democrats will manage to turn it. They only need to pick up 4 seats to take control.

    But Democrats are not going to get the 2/3 majority they would need to convict Trumpolini in another impeachment if he does manage to get "reelected" (although if the Democrats do well enough in the Senate some of the remaining GOP "might" suddenly find their conscience - I ain't counting on it).

    OTOH, if the Democrats do manage the trifecta;, holding the House while winning the Presidency & the Senate, McConnell's rules are likely to come back around to bite him in the ass ... IF he's still around to be bitten.

    The biggest danger for the country right now is that Ruth Bader Ginsburg will drop dead or be forced to retire because of ill health. If it happens between now and Jan 03, 2021, you know damn well Trumpolini and Moscow Mitch are going to cram through the most right-wing, fascist son-of-a-bitch they can find with unseemly haste and there won't be a damn thing the Democrats can do to stop them.

    1614:

    David L @ 1572:

    Turns out, for various reasons (like inept campaigning) that a lot of the Trump's war chest remains unspent come November. Where does the money go?

    In general when a US politician retires or loses they get to keep all the left overs. Which is why so many are so well off. And as much as it sucks there ARE some reasons why it is done this way. Change here would be HARD.

    Trumpolini also doesn't need to wait until the election is over to line his pockets out of his campaign. In 2016 he forced the campaign to pay for events at his properties and he didn't give them any discounts. His secret service protective detail doesn't get any discounts down at Mar-a-lago or up at Bedminster. And have y'all forgotten the mini-scandal of him requiring the Air Force to divert aircrews to Scotland for RON and requiring them to stay at his golf resort at Balmedie? No discounts there either.

    What are the chances he's NOT already "skimming the take" this time around?

    1615:

    Heteromeles @ 1577: There's my bets. What are yours?

    I'm not as sanguine as you are that he can't find some kind of stupid military mischief with which to "wag the dog" between now and election day. There are quite a lot of stupid stuff he could order that fall short of "pushing the button" that the military would have to obey his orders, even knowing what he was doing and why he was doing it.

    Wouldn't benefit him on election day, but I don't think he's got a firm enough grasp on reality to figure that out.

    1616:

    There is always the chance, esp. after the election, that whoever actually is supplying his coke gives him either purer than he's used to, or cut with something nasty.

    1617:

    Permission to eat you acquired @ 1608:, 1609:, 1611:, 1612:, 1613:, 1614:, 1616:, 1617:, 1618:, 1623:

    Moderators please look at this. It is extremely abusive. Cyber-bullying.

    ... and it's NOT a joke.

    [[ SotMN knows the rules that apply to her, and gratuitously ignored them. That account is now banned - mod ]]

    1618:

    With only 1/3 of the Senate in play at a time it all depends on which states those 33/34 Senators are in. If they are all in states that go against DT then it might happen even if DT wins.

    One of those when I have some time (yeah right) exercises that might be interesting to map out.

    Grossly overly simplistic and with 5 months before the vote a LOT can change.

    OK. There are 35 Senate seats in play. 12 D and 23 R. Of the states involved in these races HC won 12, DT won 23.

    Now from 270towin.com polling results for the Pres 2020 contest. If you assume things don’t change (they will) and that the Senate race will track the Pres for margins of 4% or more (maybe) you get D winning 12 and R winning 9. And 5 are at 2% or less.

    270towin.com did not have data on 9 states. All of these had margins of 10% or more in the last Pres so assuming they stick with the same party you get another 3 for D and 6 for R.

    So with this crude analysis: D = 15 (12+3) wins R = 15 (9+6) wins with 5 toss ups.

    Which nets to: D 50 R 45 So that gets to maybe 55 but no where near 67. (Tom Cotton has to lose for the 55.)

    See also: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016UnitedStatespresidentialelection#Resultsbystate

    1619:

    I use a Firefox addon called "Blog Comment Killfile" in order to make sure I don't have to read that person's posts.

    1620:

    Bill Arnold @ 1619 DO NOT FEED THE TROLL See also JBS @ 1633 Concur.

    SFR religions in the US are a license to print money, and not pay taxes. Used to be the case here, once upon a day - was one of the principal reasons for Henry VIII's land-grab, apart fromn other politics.

    David l Brain disorder, almost certainly.

    JBS Indeed - I see McConnell is facing a female ex USAF-pilot for re-election, most amusing.

    1621:

    Blog Comment Killfile

    In theory you shouldn't need it because there are rules. But I get the impression that rule one for the moderators is "the many-named muppet gets to post whatever it likes and you are not allowed to do anything".

    1622:

    Was reading this yesterday btw;

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/30/us-buys-up-world-stock-of-key-covid-19-drug

    So if trump's bought all of the avaliable doses of remdesivir for now what happens once a vaccine becomes avaliable? Will trump claim it all and what for the rest of us? x.x

    ljones

    1623:

    This particular occurrence of the Multi Named One has now been banned for wildly failing to follow the rules that Charlie explicitly imposed on her.

    1624:

    So if trump's bought all of the avaliable doses of remdesivir for now what happens once a vaccine becomes avaliable? Will trump claim it all and what for the rest of us? x.x

    That appears to be his plan.

    However, there are multiple vaccine projects under way in multiple countries and neither China nor the EU will play ball with Trump trying to steal their products.

    Worst case scenario: we hit swine flu in 2021 with Trump in his second term ordering USAF air strikes on foreign vaccine factories world-wide.

    1625:

    I think this has the right sense of it. In the world of Trump and of Trump supporters, there are thieves and marks. It’s better to be a thief than to be a mark. There is literally nothing else to be. If you’re not a thief your a nobody and a fool: a loser, in the language of the cult.

    Therefore anyone who is anyone is a thief.

    1626:

    The manufacturing formulation for Redesevir is known - because it's patented. Therefore said patent is declared "invalid" outside the USA & off we go ... With any luck DT will then have a siezure ....

    1627:

    IIRC there is a national emergency exemption to IP treaties, previously used for things like HIV drugs. If anything qualifies then this does.

    1628:

    Remdesivir is not a simple molecule to manufacture. There's a reason the recent price cut per dose dropped a course of treatment to only about $3500 for five days of injections.

    (Here's what wikipedia says about Remdesivir synthesis. Note the extensive use of extremely toxic reagents in a reaction that occurs at -78 degrees celsius.

    Remdesivir requires "70 raw materials, reagents, and catalysts" to make, and approximately "25 chemical steps." Some of the ingredients are extremely dangerous to humans, especially trimethylsilyl cyanide. The original end-to-end manufacturing process required 9 to 12 months to go from raw materials at contract manufacturers to finished product, but after restarting production in January, Gilead Sciences was able to find ways to reduce the production time to six months.

    The wiki entry for trimethylsilyl cyanide notes, "This chemical is rated as "Fatal if swallowed, in contact with skin or if inhaled" as it hydrolyzes in the presence of moisture to give hydrogen cyanide gas."

    But the real problem is the 25 chemical steps. If each step gives you a 10% loss in the intermediate product based on the initial inputs, you're down to sweet FA by the time you get to the end of the pipeline. And fine-tuning linear reaction chains like that is a black art -- the black art for which industrial chemists get the big bucks.

    Here's a statement by Gilead Pharmaceuticals about Remdesivir production and what they're doing with it (current as of June 24th).

    They're aiming to produce 2 million treatment courses by December. That's all they can manage. We're at most a couple of weeks away from seeing that many new infections per day.

    1629:

    New blog entry has gone up.

    1630:

    Troutwaxer @ 1619: I use a Firefox addon called "Blog Comment Killfile" in order to make sure I don't have to read that person's posts.

    I use it as well. Usually only takes a couple of nonsensical posts for me to recognize the style and invoke it. But this series was different & I felt it should be called to the moderators attention.

    Sometimes someone should say "Wait a minute, are you aware this is going on?"

    Then Charlie and/or his appointed moderators can decide if anything needs to be done about it, and I will abide.

    1631:

    Well, at least the UK's bootlicking attitude to the USA is good for SOMETHING - i.e. not using national emergency powers to make our own. The prospect of manufacturing that being outsourced to the company that passes the best backhander to the Conservative party, oops, promises to deliver in short order if given exemption from a few troublesome regulations, is not pretty.

    1632:

    _Moz_ @ 1621:

    Blog Comment Killfile

    In theory you shouldn't need it because there are rules. But I get the impression that rule one for the moderators is "the many-named muppet gets to post whatever it likes and you are not allowed to do anything".

    If I thought that were true I wouldn't have called it to the moderators attention.

    I am a guest here and I am always aware that I am a guest here. It's not my place to tell Charlie how to run his blog and I won't do it.

    But if I saw that his house was on fire, I'd call the fire department (and beat on his door until I knew he was awake to what was going on).

    Alerting the moderators is the same as calling the fire department & trying to wake up whoever is inside the house.

    1633:

    You know.

    The collection of rants was so far off the rails that it was almost amusing. Even if directed at me. Or ... well ... whatever/whoever. It was just plain nuts.

    1634:

    It's like the US has 62M doeses of hydroxychlorquinone... and doing what with them?

    1635:

    It was just plain nuts. Almost always been like that, once one realises .....

    1636:

    That's so crude. Didn't you pay attention to the leaked video of Romney in '12? It's the "taker" class and the "maker" class, and of course, all of us are takers....

    1637:

    Having a personal friend who was a officer-terrier 23 SAS - I met his whole platoon on one occasion

    The people in the sand-coloured berets have an almost opposite culture to the mob who wear maroon. There's a certain truth to "How do you know you're in a room with a Para? He tells you."...

    ...a friend of mine went from our infantry unit to 23 SAS, then to the Metropolitan Police; a couple of his mates ended up on our table at his wedding. Listening to them, as they studiously avoided the whole subject of "how they knew the groom", was quite fun.

    All are fit, and supremely determined individuals (oversimplified TL;DR - Hereford uses fitness to select for determination, while the Paras use fitness to select for aggression).

    1638:

    @David L: 1581 When I worked there, the scuttlebutt was that plane ownership wasn't transferred on the ground. The transaction was completed in the air over international waters to reduce the tax consequences of the sale. I have no concrete information to confirm this though.

    1639:

    It's not my place to tell Charlie how to run his blog and I won't do it. But if I saw that his house was on fire

    How many times do you do that before the two collide? Even the first time you're telling him that his shouldn't let his house be on fire. But after the tenth time you really are nagging him to change the way he runs his house.

    1640:

    More likely, a conviction on various charges of financial fraud. ... NY is very interested in that, as it's their taxes that Himself was trying to avoid with changing valuations on real estate.

    Oh, yes; his fellow New Yorkers know him very well and would be particularly satisfied to nail him to a wall and throw tomatoes.

    And as of this week that's one of his better options; British media may not have covered it but Iran has issued an arrest warrant for his involvement in the killing of General Qassem Soleimani. (Interpol has politely and wisely declined to get involved.) He has effectively no chance of ever facing murder and terrorism charges but he will have to choose the nations he visits very carefully. Coverage by Time magazine, Al Jazeera (in English), or NPR, or The Guardian as you prefer.

    1641:

    _Moz_ @ 1639:

    It's not my place to tell Charlie how to run his blog and I won't do it. But if I saw that his house was on fire

    How many times do you do that before the two collide? Even the first time you're telling him that his shouldn't let his house be on fire. But after the tenth time you really are nagging him to change the way he runs his house.

    I'll have to get back to you on that after the tenth time I see his house on fire ... 8^)

    1642:

    I wonder why they went to Interpol - this sounds more like the ICJ’s area of authority.

    1643:

    Robert van der Heide @ 1642: I wonder why they went to Interpol - this sounds more like the ICJ’s area of authority.

    Just a SWAG, but I think the U.S. recognizes "Interpol", but not the "ICJ". If Interpol presents the warrant to the FBI, the U.S. government has to respond, even if that response is only a diplomatically worded "Tell them to go fuck themselves."

    The U.S. would just ignore the "ICJ" like it wasn't even there, so they went with the organization the U.S. would have to respond to.

    1644:

    "...and I have zero intention of explaining why."

    If there exists a witty aphorism equating to no-commenting/pleading-the-Fifth being equivalent to an affirmative answer then I would have commented with that instead of rambling.

    1645:

    I wonder why they went to Interpol - this sounds more like the ICJ’s area of authority.

    JBS has a good point; the ICJ is a part of the UN and the United Nations is not trusted by the Reich wing of American politics.

    On the nitpicking hand, the ICJ addresses disputes between nations [wiki]. Murder is a criminal charge so Iran is reporting it to the International Police organization.

    Given that the accused is currently holding political office, Interpol has declined to take any actions. Article 3 of their charter says "It is strictly forbidden for the Organization to undertake any intervention or activities of a political, military, religious or racial character."

    I think both Iran and Interpol have acted correctly. Iran is carrying through the proper formalities of a murder investigation; Interpol has recognized that this is not their problem.

    1646:

    Rocky Tom That's bullshit, I'm afraid. The tax paid wil be to one country or another, you can't evade that one ...

    1647:

    The US has form for ignoring the ICJ — winning a case against them there doesn't actually win you anything, so trying to do so seems wasted effort.

    1648:

    Worst case scenario: we hit swine flu in 2021 with Trump in his second term ordering USAF air strikes on foreign vaccine factories world-wide.

    That's disturbingly plausible!

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