anne.johnson
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Commented on Beyond Prediction
Predicting the future using scenario planning .. Since no one has yet mentioned it, you might find this http://www.gbn.com/consulting/article_details.php?id=113&breadcrumb=ideas of interest - Peter Shwartz' 2010 update to his 1991 book 'The Art of the Long View'- it built on the...
Comment Threads
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Karl Schroeder commented on
Beyond Prediction
It's actually realclimate.org, not .com....
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Greg. Tingey commented on
Beyond Prediction
Alex Tolley @ 48 Both. 20-35% conversion-efficiency AND continuous running for several thosand hours at least without fail/breakdown/degradation. As you and others say, it's coming - so why do we not hear more of it? or is it a matter of bothe first (installation) costs and vested interests? Remember that until very recently trying to generate your own, no matter how small, was penalised by a cosy guvmint-&-power-generators stitch-up....
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https://www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawlNCQ69-zALiIBb87L1PQ6ZpJ-tEHsWtzc commented on
Beyond Prediction
1/3 of the world's population using off-grid solar sounds a little high, but not a lot high. You have to keep in mind that most of the solar-reliant population won't be trading down from a reliable electrical grid offering as much energy as you like at 15 cents per kWh, but trading up to solar energy from kerosene lamps, the odd bit of juice stolen from the local grid (such as it is) during the times when that grid is actually energized, and simple deprivation. With one square meter of 20% efficiency solar panel (commercially available from SunPower, based on...
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sabik.eta commented on
Beyond Prediction
I may be a bit late here, but... As far as aspirational futures are concerned, I find "gapminder" to be really good - how the world has substantially improved in the last fifty or two hundred years (depending on which presentation you watch) and how in the future it can continue to get better based on current trends. He's also a good speaker :-) Real statistics for a reasonably optimistic outlook on the world!...
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Greg. Tingey commented on
Beyond Prediction
Lanius @ 78 Already been thought of. By Nevil Shute Norway. "In the Wet"...
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