Daniel Duffy

Daniel Duffy

  • Commented on The World of Tomorrow
    Not so much debt as the inability to meet financial demands and promises of an increasingly aged population....
  • Commented on The World of Tomorrow
    Many shocks are coming thanks to technology and the "creative destruction" of capitalism. Economically and technologically, Red Rural America will soon have no reason to exist. Got coal? Nobody cares because fracking gas is cheaper and solar energy is now...
  • Commented on The World of Tomorrow
    Transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, except for natural gas which will have a golden age. Coal is already dead: https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2016/12/12/13914942/interactive-map-cheapest-power-plant http://www.sciencealert.com/the-end-of-coal-is-near-china-just-scrapped-103-power-plants https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/26/business/energy-environment/coal-power-renewable-energy.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0 http://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/india-cancels-mega-plans-to-build-coal-power-stations-due-to-falling-solar-energy-prices-322553.html http://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1703426954/peak-coal-us-coal-fired-power-is-steadily-declining/2015-08-11 Oil is also doomed: https://perspicacity.xyz/2017/05/24/this-is-how-big-oil-will-die/ https://www.wsj.com/articles/get-ready-for-peak-oil-demand-1495419061 https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldunne/2017/02/28/china-deploys-aggressive-mandates-to-stay-no-1-in-electric-vehicles/#5a1330356a82 http://www.financialexpress.com/industry/india-eyes-all-electric-car-fleet-by-2030/647569/ But Carbon Oligarchs won't go down...
  • Commented on The World of Tomorrow
    The two biggest geopolitical stories of the 21st century: Africa Rising (http://www.economist.com/node/21541015) with diffuse technology (cell phones, solar energy, etc.) allowing it to leap frog the need for expensive infrastructure in order to modernize. India as a True Superpower. The...
  • Commented on The World of Tomorrow
    Demographics drive everything, primarily immigration, the birth dearth and aging populations. America - a nation of mutts. According to the last census the fastest growing ethnic group in America is "Mixed". 17% of all marriages in the US are now...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    Look for many countries to no longer exist. Most of Africa, Middle East and Asia have borders drawn by former European colonists without regard to ethnicity or geography. In many cases (such as Iraq and Syria) this was deliberate and...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    I've actually become guardedly optimistic about global warming. Coal has been killed by cheap fracking methane, which produces half the greenhouse gases per kWh as coal. Purists may want 100% renewables but that just isn't practical. And if you could...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    >Cheap desalination. This. With unlimited cheap desalinated water we can remake the planet and make every desert bloom and feed every mouth. The key is the development of graphene. For now graphene can do everything but get out of the...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    >Designer babies and other biologicals, well beyond the point of species differentiation. Don't see that happening. When the human genome was published the most striking feature of human DNA was how *few* genes we really had. And of those genes,...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    >religions are not species or even populations, they're clusters of ideas and identifiers. Memetics, not genetics. See Dawkins....
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    Religion evolves in Darwinian fashion. Instead of dying out as many atheists predicted, religion is experiencing its own Cambrian Explosion. The next century will see the greatest diversification and expansion of religion in history. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2002/02/oh-gods/302412/ Religion didn't begin to wither...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    >Smaller growth doesn't equal emptying out. It's not just slower relative growth. Rural America's population is declining in absolute terms: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/06/the-graying-of-rural-america/485159/ "Over the past two decades, as cities have become job centers that attract diverse young people, rural America has...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    >One (per Cadillac Desert) is that we're nearing the end of a lot of government sponsored, groundwater and dam-based stupidity. I highly recommend "The Water Knife" by Paolo Bacigalupi...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    By 2117 we reach the end of science. This is based on the assumption that we are about to reach the "end of science" and the limits of scientific inquiry due to inherent physical limitations or practicality (string theory would...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    >The evidence suggests that vat-grown meat is plausible, but commercializing it is going to take a lot of effort. If McDonald's can sell the McRib it can sell vat grown meat....
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    Demographics aren't the worst of China's problems. In their rush to industrialize they have turned China into a toxic cesspool. As for China's degraded and poisoned environment see "Our Real China Problem" http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1997/11/our-real-china-problem/376989/ Within seconds we saw a broad stream...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    I'm open to suggestions concerning a cure to what ails Red Rural America. But I can see a future republican winning the presidency in the electoral college while losing the popular vote by as much as 10 million....
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    America vs. Demographics - A Nation of Mutts "We're Americans, with a capital 'A', huh? You know what that means? Do ya? That means that our forefathers were kicked out of every decent country in the world. We are the...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    >Current US rural population is about 125% of what it was in 1900. American population in 1900 = 76 million. American population now = 324 million. A 425% increase. Rural America is not keeping pace and is falling behind. The...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    China vs. Demographics But China is also doomed. Remember back in the 1980s when everyone was predicting the Japan would take over the world? Didn't happen. Why? for the same reason China is not going to take over the world:...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    Russia vs. Demographics Aside from being a corrupt, oligarchic, mafiya state whose only source of income is ever cheaper oil, Russia is demographically doomed. By 2050 there will be 50 million fewer Russians: http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/russian-demographics-perfect-storm The shrinking population is the result...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    Old Vs. Young Practical gerontocracy with life extension techniques and reduced birth rates (sorry Millenials, we Boomers aren't going anywhere for a very long time). World population peaking at 10b more or less and (depending on your assumptions) either slowly...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    Educated vs. Uneducated Trump's election wasn't so much a victory as a last stand. His voters pine for the days when a high school education was all you needed to get into the middle class. Those days are gone. When...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    Rural vs. Urban - Cities Triumphant, especially here in America. As they say down South, nothing kicks harder than a dying mule. The 2016 election was that kick. Economically and technologically, Red Rural America will soon have no reason to...
  • Commented on 2117 revisited
    English vs. Every other language What kind of English are we talking about here? How will it evolve and change? Will it be as different as today's English is from that of Shakespeare or Chaucer, or even "A Clockwork Orange"?...
  • Commented on The internet of decay
    I see the internet of things (along with uplifting via genetic engineering) ushering in a future where we will all live in a horror/fantasy/Disney movie. A world with sentient magic mirrors that evaluate your physical health parameters and let you...
  • Commented on Some notes on the worst-case scenario
    As for fracking chemicals: http://www.chemservice.com/news/2014/11/surfactants-from-fracking-may-not-be-as-harmful-as-previously-thought/ One team of scientists from the University of Colorado Boulder decided to study the surfactants that are used in fracking fluids. They concluded that these organic chemicals are no more harmful than what is already...
  • Commented on Some notes on the worst-case scenario
    "Because earthquake clusters and contaminated groundwater are only problems for people who live in rural areas, and how common are they?" Actually they can occur in cities as well. The mayor of Youngstown, Ohio was bounced out of his bed...
  • Commented on Some notes on the worst-case scenario
    An inverter's operating power coincides with its voltage. For example a 100 watt inverter will function at 12 to 48 volts. As a rule of thumb, inverter efficiency increases with power output. At low current inverter efficiency can fall below...
  • Commented on Some notes on the worst-case scenario
    I understand and appreciate your arguments vis CNG storage tank safety. 3,600 psi storage pressure requires diligent design and retrofit of the converted engine. Was it a retrofitted CNG/diesel flex fuel engine? Was it the actual tank that ruptured or...
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