icehawk

icehawk

  • Commented on "It'll all be over by Christmas" (Part 2)
    This has all the hallmarks of internet pseudo-science. Excess Deaths is an all-causes mortality measure. Baseline to previous years, see how different this year is. Sweden does poorly on that measure. You want to reject that standard approach, toss away...
  • Commented on "It'll all be over by Christmas" (Part 2)
    Re: 'Seems odd that birth rate data wouldn't be reported as it happened. ’ You were talking about sperm damage, weren’t you? 75 days for spermatozoa genesis plus 9 months to make a baby (cue joke about project managers wanting...
  • Commented on "It'll all be over by Christmas" (Part 2)
    One part of the problem in Christian culture countries and elsewhere is that people get inculcated into binary logic and decision making at a very early age.. I don't think it's a Christian/Western thing at all. I think it's...
  • Commented on "It'll all be over by Christmas" (Part 2)
    There's a growing, seemingly global, sense that we can't or shouldn't go back to the status quo ante I am pessimistic about that. Because I had that feeling here in NZ during our lockdown. A sense that everyone in the...
  • Commented on "It'll all be over by Christmas" (Part 2)
    My big plan for this summer, cancelled by COVID19, was my first ever trip to New Zealand. Yeah, bummer. We were very much looking forward to seeing you here. A virtual worldcon based in Wellington is very much not the...
  • Commented on Roll the dice
    "Vegan science fiction"? You have issues with SF from the constellation Lyra?...
  • Commented on Roll the dice
    The new hotness is Chinese and Indian[*] consumer spending, Yeah, and importantly China is a much more open economy than the USA. It matter here because a giant economy that's entirely self-sufficient doesn't affect the rest of the world much....
  • Commented on Roll the dice
    "then also arrange that once they've gone too far up a one-way career path, nobody else offers them a job (again: if you've got tentacles in their university department, you can do that)." You think brightest young mathematicians work in...
  • Commented on Roll the dice
    ‘ Ancient Egyptian dentition ‘ The same was true of pre-contact Maori. High-born Maori were very fit, well-fed, relatively free of infectious diseases. Early European visitors to Aotearoa raved about their warrior physique. But by the time they hit their...
  • Commented on Roll the dice
    ‘ whatever they do on Antarctic bases. ‘ From memory, the doctor overwintering in a Russian (soviet? It was a while back) base had his appendix removed by the tractor driver. Who was operating with a video-link to a surgeon...
  • Commented on Roll the dice
    "Britain did not need slavery because it was cheaper to use near-serf labour in Ireland and India in agriculture." Britain in 1800 relied heavily on sugar imports from the West Indies. Sugar is an efficient way of getting edible calories...
  • Commented on Roll the dice
    Much of fantasy is about nostalgia for the way things weren't. Tolkeinesque fantasy is an anti-technology romance about a non-existent past where you didn't need giant factories, huge corporations, technology that relied on huge logistic chains and inter-connected economies. Back...
  • Commented on Cough Cough
    force the pilot to fly to Moscow, and there claim political asylum against his unjust persecution Amusing though this idea is, why would a man who was still president leave? Most countries limit the power of the executive immediately...
  • Commented on Cough Cough
    " at the VERY least, he should create a project to investigate the data more thoroughly and look for a cause, AND add ethnicity to the list of conditions that may cause vulnerability " That is something I noticed here...
  • Commented on Cough Cough
    biosecurity If you are coming from the US (or other rabies infested countries) there is the 6 months quarantine period for your pet (though most of that can be served in the US) These days it's just a 10-day quarantine....
  • Commented on Cough Cough
    I think The Greens have had a whole lot more wins than the environmentalists inside Labour have since the split. It's hard to know what to make of that comment. The NZ Greens were never in Labour. We formed as...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    maybe tomorrow I'll mop the kitchen floor then write another thousand words. The kids have it tough. They're finding motivation very, very hard. They're restarting school here tomorrow, after two months of working from home, via google hangouts, zoom, assigned...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    "Language" appears ( to me ) to be ( at least ) a 3-dimensional Phase Space, with axes of Time, Sound ( frequency/combinations) & Tone ( pitch ) Even mathematics can ( I think ) be fitted into this frame...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    This will only be the case if those countries have a sufficient entirely domestic supply chain for everything they need. NZ, Australia, Japan, and various other places are islands. They are vulnerable to strategic blockade. It turns out that...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    To get any emptier than that you need to visit Antarctica, or maybe the Atacama or Gobi deserts or the more remote parts of Siberia. You've been on your way to somewhere else like that. You drove through the Rockies...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    There are a lot of people with no idea of the scale of that enormous empty chunk in the middle of the US. Moz is right. Eucla in Western Australia, with a population of 53, is on a lot of...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    "What sports don't require physical exertion to the point of panting. And in each others faces or next to each other." Our perceptions of people moving outdoors and people walking slowly or standing still indoors are very different. Soccer players...
  • Commented on I ain't dead
    "Been seeing some stuff going around from various cognitive science sorts that reading requires an effort to construct the story; you have to sub-create to enjoy it." Mimesis as Make-Believe My wife wrote her master's thesis on it back in...
  • Commented on "It'll all be over by Christmas"
    Yup, it's Palantir that was doing NHS-X, using Foundry. Peter Thiell's chaps. https://healthtech.blog.gov.uk/2020/03/28/the-power-of-data-in-a-pandemic/ It's not that Palantir's Foundry is bad by design if you want to do big data - it is in some ways a big-data equivalent of RedHat,...
  • Commented on "It'll all be over by Christmas"
    "Similarly, that centralized data silo NHSX tracing app with the happy fun pipeline straight into GCHQ?" I expect some of the proposed app design - and designers - are in fact from GCHQ. Palantir's been bidding aggressively for lots of...
  • Commented on "It'll all be over by Christmas"
    "They knock down R0 by a bit, I've been guessing somewhere between 0.5 and 1 (or maybe a bit more) for cloth masks for SARS-Cov-2 " WHO would *strongly* disagree with you about those numbers. They don't recommend mask-wearing for...
  • Commented on Yet another novel I will no longer write
    "the perfect time to stop contributing to funding for the World Health Organization" Historians will mark this year as the end of the USA as the global hyper-power. Five years ago most of us would consider calling the USA the...
  • Commented on Yet another novel I will no longer write
    Ok, Brains Trust: You emerge blinking into the light after a pandemic, into the mother of all economic crises. Your nation’s economy is screwed. Your trading partners are equally screwed, as a global recession unheard-of in generations is charging you...
  • Commented on Yet another novel I will no longer write
    ‘ These statements, at least, have traceable basis in reality.’ Out of interest, what colour is the sky in that reality?...
  • Commented on Yet another novel I will no longer write
    "So Singapore has been forced to follow much of the rest of the world and close schools and non-essential businesses." Yes. They're up to 8 deaths. (8 Total, that is. Not 8 per day) Seems to me their strategy was...
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