icehawk

icehawk

  • Commented on Decision Fatigue
    “ . I suspect people would have noticed if European colonists (and their livestock and working animals!) started aborting, losing babies soon after birth,” Would they? In the 1600s that was normal. Child mortality, stillbirths, it was all insanely awful...
  • Commented on Decision Fatigue
    "A simple ban on politicians earning income from sources other than politics would fail at the first hurdle" Here in NZ it is established law that things owned by an MP's family trust are not the MP's property and are...
  • Commented on Decision Fatigue
    "I'm sure there are plenty of good reasons why the drinking age should be higher (or lower). I don't have a problem with it either way. It's the law, and I know no compelling reason I should oppose the law...
  • Commented on Decision Fatigue
    "You can't quote me quoting and then claim that no one is saying the exact thing I just quoted." I think my one-line flippant comment that modern AI is incapable may be being read overly closely. As one-line comments do,...
  • Commented on Decision Fatigue
    "911 - You'd be one dire programmer if you lived in California and didn't write an autopilot rules for a standard situation like a 4-way stop." In NZ it's one of those "try to get eye contact with the other...
  • Commented on Decision Fatigue
    "If an autonomous car is given a collision preference list based on minimizing the collision energy or force" I think your list is an example of the main mistake a lot of people make about autonomous cars - you write...
  • Commented on Decision Fatigue
    “ It understands the body language of human car drivers enough to negotiate who's going and who's waiting” Not well. That is in fact one of its weaknesses. It’s got some simplistic stochastic processes, which is a lot better than...
  • Commented on Decision Fatigue
    “ I think you really underestimate how hard it is to drive a car. ” It’s insect-level intelligence. A cockroach navigating a kitchen has as many difficult decisions as a car navigating city streets. That is to say: it’s beyond...
  • Commented on Decision Fatigue
    Deciduous trees go dormant in winter in a very visible way (the leaves fall off). But root growth goes dormant later than what you see above ground. So as EC said, just after the leaves fall off is generally best...
  • Commented on Decision Fatigue
    Video of the Uni of Edinburgh wave tank, used for studying such things is here: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iWKFPTgkpXo It is a serious cool piece of kit. I wish I got to float 1:10 scale barges in it....
  • Commented on Decision Fatigue
    “ Wave power energy devices either need to be built as ruggedly as oil and gas production platforms ” I’ve a friend here in NZ working on a prototype for a research group at the University of Edinburgh. It’s a...
  • Commented on Decision Fatigue
    In other words, 1/8 of fossil fuels are used in manufacturing things that are quite difficult without them (like plastics & fertiliser). And 1/8 is used to manufacture steel. Which can be done without fossil fuels, but it’s more expensive...
  • Commented on Decision Fatigue
    "there are a lot of stupid people looking for that one true reason because they think it will allow them to CURE people they disapprove of" When I was a teenager being gay was illegal. (yeah, technically only illegal to...
  • Commented on Decision Fatigue
    “ Yeah, no. Even in suburbia you need a top speed of at least 70 MPH, ” You assume motorways/autobahns/highways are necessary. And that is true for a lot of people. But most people don’t drive on them, most days....
  • Commented on Decision Fatigue
    Musk has often used threats to motivate his workforce. At Tesla for years it was a repeat of things like “We face bankruptcy if we fail on this one, we need 60 hour weeks from everyone…” (and not him saying...
  • Commented on Decision Fatigue
    "My take: Tesla shares are clearly in a bubble, and Musk knows it." I think you under-estimate his ego. Musk used his Tesla shares as collateral for loans for the Twitter deal. If the value of the Tesla shares drop...
  • Commented on Decision Fatigue
    NZ is looking into pumped hydro at Lake Onslow. Given a near-perfect site (a large floodable basin & a lake, sited next to each other) it’s workable, but still expensive. May or may not get...
  • Commented on Strong and Stable!
    "If we don't extend a Marshall Plan to the rural American heart of Trump country" I think the "rural-ness" of most Trump supporters is over-stated. You don't get elected president by winning Wyoming and South Dakota. You get elected by...
  • Commented on Strong and Stable!
    I mistyped above: the IBM desk was over 100 mill total for a decade, not 100 mill a year....
  • Commented on Strong and Stable!
    “ If you are in business the net value of your capital equipment is modelled, more or less accurately, by the accountants. Depreciation figures as part of profit and loss, ” Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha! Nice theory! How much you depreciate capital assets...
  • Commented on Strong and Stable!
    "Inflation won't be a problem by 2024." Predictions are hard. Especially about the future. There's a story you can tell about the western world's last major brush with inflation (in the late 70s/early 80s) which is that the heroic central...
  • Commented on Strong and Stable!
    "Healthcare is a big overhead" UBI in the USA would only be half a solution without first creating a decent health care system. I remember how Elizabeth Warren was radicalized from "moderate republican law school professor" to become, well, Elizabeth...
  • Commented on Upcoming blog outage
    "One take is that virgin ground pandemics did not wipe the Americas clean of Indians, although they caused huge human losses across centuries" But the question was about collapse of civilization, not about a "100% kill rate". And those plagues...
  • Commented on I can't even
    Wood is solar energy and with Britain being so far north we don't get a lot of solar energy that would grow a lot of timber Kinda thing that might mean you run out of timber for charcoal, and have...
  • Commented on The gathering crisis
    Powering towns with nuclear reactors from ships is a currently expected and planned-for thing. It’s used by the military in their other role, which is civil disaster recovery. The US navy hooked up a warship (aircraft carrier, I think) to...
  • Commented on The ends of education
    University degrees fulfil 3 functions: Education. In the widest sense of the word. Academic Filtering. Proof that you are academically capable of getting that degree. Social filtering. Proof that you are the sort of person who has the social status...
  • Commented on Books I will not write: BIGGLES!!
    “ However, nuclear winter is, and it looks like even "a limited nuclear exchange between IN and PK"” Nukes don’t cause ‘nuclear’ winters. Burning cities with nukes causes nuclear winters. The firestorm that engulfed Hiroshima is quoted as giving off...
  • Commented on Books I will not write: BIGGLES!!
    “ So if you can match velocity with the asteroid, there's some hope that you can burrow into it to a depth of metres.” You’ve confused me. You seem to have jumped straight from “you don’t need to match velocity,...
  • Commented on Books I will not write: BIGGLES!!
    “ get a reissue copy of original Black Box Traveller, and try it. ” I think the connection to Biggles is not a surprise. Traveller always looked like an attempt at the Star Wars “clunkers in space” / Andre Norton...
  • Commented on The impotence of the long-distance trillionaire
    gasdive at 683: I'm not saying that billionaires are the ones that "keep money circulating" but what I am saying is that they don't lock up money. Then I misunderstood you. My apologies. But I think I still disagree with...
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