icehawk

icehawk

  • Commented on Yet another novel I will no longer write
    I was deeply surprised when my American friends at grad school made me biscuits and gravy, and I found out that they were savory scones. No idea what I'd expect from the South, but not savory scones with gravy. Equally...
  • Commented on Yet another novel I will no longer write
    "pro-NATO " Really? Is NATO still a thing? In a world in which the US is stealing German healthcare equipment during a pandemic?...
  • Commented on Yet another novel I will no longer write
    "The amount of money available is irrelevant. It's 1970 - ..." It's 1836, you're Nathan Rothschild and so wealthy you loaned the Bank of England money to avert a liquidity crisis. Make the antibiotics to cure ONE abscess. Or die....
  • Commented on Yet another novel I will no longer write
    "The Lambda Functionary" I say, that title's really rather good....
  • Commented on Update to Public Appearances in a time of pandemic
    ”It's fucking mental, in other words.” Oz & Nz comparisons will be interesting. We started similar in cases per population - NZ two or three days behind you. NZ then shut down hard & fast. Oz... not so much. A...
  • Commented on Update to Public Appearances in a time of pandemic
    Oz and NZ are a bit weird for these stats. Both have had a majority of cases coming in from overseas, or directly linked to that (eg travellers spouse). So they mostly tell you how many people were arriving and...
  • Commented on Update to Public Appearances in a time of pandemic
    The French government threatened to *totally* close the border, and to ask the EU to do the same, and yes, that means freight too Ah, that makes more sense. Or maybe not - that's really extreme. My nation's borders are...
  • Commented on Update to Public Appearances in a time of pandemic
    Reading what you guys say makes me realise how weird the world is. It’s like dispatcheS from a different planet. “France threatened to close the border...”. You mean your border to France is open! It had not occurred to me...
  • Commented on Update to Public Appearances in a time of pandemic
    Defoe’s ‘Journal of the Plague’ is good reading at this time. Really, he writes well. Conventions will return. Gatherings always have, after plagues. Of course, the Americans will be hit hardest. So it may take them a few years. Shame...
  • Commented on Public appearances in a time of pandemic
    it's instantly obvious that if we can go communitarian collectivist enough to get everybody and an economy through the pandemic until there's a vaccine or reliable treatment, free to all, we can damn well decarbonize, too Graydon, You're an...
  • Commented on Public appearances in a time of pandemic
    Sorry I mis-spoke: When I said this: " If you stop before then, you're back to 250k dead in the UK " That's only as few as 250k dead if you luck into the most optimistic scenario, and you first...
  • Commented on Public appearances in a time of pandemic
    Graydon, That Imperial College report you link to may be what is driving the change in the UK Govt's response in the last 3 days. I know the NZ policy people have been looking at what it says very carefully....
  • Commented on Public appearances in a time of pandemic
    Meanwhile, out in the big room with the blue ceiling... Out my window the autumn sun is setting, the soccer practice in Newtown park is running as usual, people are sitting at the tables outside the zoo cafe. Wellington CBD...
  • Commented on Public appearances in a time of pandemic
    "I'm using 6% for math-in-head purposes because of this Lancet article which, being four days old now, is doubtless a bit out of date. It produces numbers that converge on 5.7% as the global rate." That article's methodology: "We re-estimated...
  • Commented on Public appearances in a time of pandemic
    Australia is running behind you lot - if they had South Korean levels of organisation I think they'd have a good chance to... Nope. I was wrong. 2 days ago it looked like that, and already Sydney's number of cases...
  • Commented on Public appearances in a time of pandemic
    I note that the guvmint are proposing to tell "over-70's to self-isolate" Well you can fuck right off with that one - I need to get to my allotment for: Fresh food, exercise & fresh air ... And to a...
  • Commented on Public appearances in a time of pandemic
    ...so it turns out that given a concert abandoned due to plague in gorgeous old church, Neil Gaiman will stand at the pulpit and, in quiet echos of the empty night, read Edgar Allan Poe's Masque of the Red Death....
  • Commented on Public appearances in a time of pandemic
    but the Korean model applies to a time window we're not in anymore. The world is a bit more heterogeneous than that. Once you step off the continents. NZ has 8 confirmed cases, 3 probable. 3 of which are...
  • Commented on Public appearances in a time of pandemic
    Hunkering down: After a day of working from home, the Amanda Palmer concert I was to attend tonight is off (not that I was going anyway). Good news for you if you are quick - she's live-streaming it instead: https://www.crowdcast.io/e/music-in-the-time-of...
  • Commented on Public appearances in a time of pandemic
    If such a closure would have left the in-situ NZ health resources able to contain the spread, "If" I'm reading my prime minister saying the New Zealand will have the "widest ranging and toughest travel restrictions of any nation in...
  • Commented on Public appearances in a time of pandemic
    Obviously every virus is different, but does anyone have a more positive take on this? Positive take, as requested: There are countries like Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea and China that seem to be doing a good job of controlling...
  • Commented on Public appearances in a time of pandemic
    Any indications of how that's actually expected to work? Are quarters going to be provided for those that don't have any, are 14-day survival packages of food and other supplies going to be given to people who can't go shopping?...
  • Commented on Public appearances in a time of pandemic
    Pigeon, I owe you an apology. My response was intemperate and my language inappropriately aggressive when you posted about how the airports should be closed immediately in the last thread on coronavirus. I'm sorry. You struck a nerve. Like most...
  • Commented on COVID-19
    I forget if I've recommended this on this forum before - I recommend it a lot: Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are? by Frans de Waal (Author) As a book on animal intelligence (and what we...
  • Commented on COVID-19
    « They just sent my son in law home. He's an engineer in a smallish company that makes a product used in food packaging. I haven't seen him in nearly 2 weeks but they figured it was better to be...
  • Commented on COVID-19
    less kissing as part of everyday greetings. https://xkcd.com/2277/...
  • Commented on COVID-19
    seems to be just because many infectious diseases appear exponential in the early stages doesn't mean that they are. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5373088/ Thank you, that's quite interesting. Both your comment and the link. Though the link you sent (I know you gave...
  • Commented on COVID-19
    Like many geeks, I retreat into mathematical modelling when dealing with something difficult. So... We are all aware that with a geometric series, it's the exponent that really matters for how fast it gets big - much more than the...
  • Commented on COVID-19
    Moz, Just being clear here: I've said that we should improve transport to be more carbon efficient, and change society to make air travel less necessary. And you've accused me of *genocide* because I don't go so far as to...
  • Commented on COVID-19
    Dear Pangloss, 1. It's Hawk. The Man is someone else. 2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZTDuynXqRI 3. Looking at the numbers and stress testing is my day-job. I'd forgotten how far down the rabbit-hole one goes when talking to you. Mind the walrus....
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