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Pass or Fail

Let me crib from wikipedia for a moment: the Bechdel test, named after the American cartoonist Alison Bechdel, is a measure of the representation of women in film and other fiction. The test asks whether a work features at least two women who talk to each other about something other than a man.

Once you start looking at popular media, it's striking how common it is for TV, movies, or fiction to fail. Media rep of characters on TV is about 75% male, and it's very common indeed for women to be presented in roles that frame them primarily or exclusively in terms of their gender role.

I've been aware of the Bechdel Test since the late 1990s and actively using it as part of my unconscious checklist for how to write a novel that doesn't suck in some way, but even keeping it in mind, I sometimes fail. And I think it's worth looking at where and why that happens.

So I decided to compile this score card for my books. (SF novels first, then Merchant Princes and Laundry Files.)

Singularity Sky (2003)

Passes on a technicality. I haven't re-read it in decades but there's at least one scene in which two Critics from the Festival—highly evolved eusocial critters of distant human origin, who happen to be female—are discussing events on Rochard's World. (It's not a terribly good pass, however, because most of the novel concerns goings-on aboard a space dreadnought from a rabidly conservative, patriarchal polity. It's almost an accident that there's even one woman aboard ship, actually.)

Iron Sunrise (2004)

Passes less ambiguously. (Caveat: I haven't re-read it since publication.) Has a number of female characters, including two primary protagonists (Rachel and Wednesday) and at least a couple of scenes in which women talk about something other than men. (But also has the "Idi Amin Dadaist" sequence which is coming right out if I ever get the rights back and republish.)

Accelerando (2005)

Passes. Has a remarkably messed-up mother/daughter relationship, among other things.

Glasshouse (2006)

Passes. Although it's sufficiently far-future/transhumanist that gender constructs as they exist today are largely side-lined: almost all the characters change physical sex and body more than once and some of them are not obviously human.

Halting State (2007)

Passes. Two of three main protagonists are women and they're investigating a crime.

Rule 34 (2010)

Passes. (Again: cops investigating crimes that don't exist yet.) A point worth noting is that there is only one unambiguously heterosexual character in the novel and he's the extremely rapey and unpleasant gangster. (I deliberately mainstreamed LGBT+ because that's a separate "does your fiction suck" test right there.)

Saturn's Children (2008)

Passes (unless you want to pedantically insist that in a setting where H. Sapiens Sapiens* has been extinct for centuries, there can be no women). Protagonist is a female-gendered sex bot who, in the absence of her human abusers, goes on a bildungsruman around the solar system.

Neptune's Brood (2012)

Passes (same caveat as Saturn's Children). Protagonist is a historiographer of accountancy practices, studying the history of frauds centering on the purported development of an FTL space drive.

Standalone novellas:

Missile Gap (2006)

Fail. Third-person ensemble cast, but only really has one female character. It's set in a bizarre throwback 1970s culture in which the boomer-led socially liberalising politics of the 1960s failed to gain traction and everything is generally grim. (Probably because humanity is being manipulated by superintelligent eusocial insects from the far future.)

Might have had scope to be a pass if it hadn't been limited to 23,000 words (a quarter of a novel) so had more plot threads.

Palimpsest (2008)

Hard fail. Third person but centres on a male character. Didn't need to be a fail because there are at least two significant female protagonists, so I'm calling this a bad fail.

Merchant Princes series (Original six books, 2003-2009; revised in three omnibus volumes, 2012-13)

Comprehensive pass. Initial protagonist Miriam Beckstein takes no prisoners, and although she gets things wrong she has significant friendships with other women (who are also major characters as the series progresses).

Empire Games series (2016-2021)

Comprehensive pass: initial protagonist Rita Douglas runs into her birth mother Miriam Beckstein: also various friendships and workplace rivalries.

Laundry Files/New Management (2002-2023)

The Atrocity Archives

Default fail

The Jennifer Morgue

Default fail

The two above both fail by default because they're almost entirely first-person narratives by the lean male protagonist, Bob Howard.

The Fuller Memorandum

Hard Fail

The Apocalypse Codex

Hard Fail

The second two Laundry Files novels are largely first-person narratives by Bob but also contain third-person sequences focusing on other protagonists, some of whom are shockingly female (Iris Carpenter in TFM, Persephone Hazard in TAC), making these books' failure to pass the Bechdel test rather more serious.

The Rhesus Chart

Pass (not great)

Still first-person narrative by Bob Howard, but contains a lot more third-person narrative covering other characters, including Mhari Murphy and the Scrum, some of whom are female, and Mhari's co-workers back at the Laundry.

The Annihilation Score

Pass (solid)

Dominique O'Brien, Mhari Murphy, and Ramona Random form a superhero team and fight crime: their supervillain enemy is another woman; explicitly references the Bechdel Test in the very first chapter. (I wrote it while feeling self-conscious about the hard fail in Palimpsest.)

The Nightmare Stacks

Pass. During the dinner party from hell, if nothing else. (Third person ensemble cast, multi-viewpoint narrative, some of them are women.)

The Delirium Brief

Pass. Some first-person Bob, but it's mostly an ensemble third-party narrative and some of the narrative viewpoints are by women (notably Mo) and they talk to each other.

The Labyrinth Index

Pass (solid). Main narrative viewpoint character is Mhari Murphy, and she kicks ass and takes numbers.

Novellas/short novels:

Equoid

Default fail (I think). Novella, first-person narrative by Bob Howard, non-Bob content is transcripts of the letters of H. P. Lovecraft.

Escape from Yokai Land

Default fail. Short novella, first-person narrative by Bob.

A Conventional Boy (forthcoming, 2024)

Pass (weak). Short novel, mostly a character study of a male protagonist (Derek the DM), despite which there are conversations in which two or more women talk about something other than men. (Which just goes to show I wasn't trying hard enough in the Bob stories.)

New Management (Dead Lies Dreaming, Quantum of Nightmares, Season of Skulls)

Pass (solid). Multiple significant female protagonists in all books (Del, Wendy Deere, Amy from HR, and of course Eve Starkey who gets an entire novel in SoS).

Anyway, some analysis ...

It's really easy to fail the Bechdel Test if you use just two simple tricks: (a) omit half the members of the human species from your story, (b) write a first-person narrative from the viewpoint of a male protagonist who doesn't pay attention to women. One of these is a failure because the story line itself omits women: the other is a failure because the narrative viewpoint itself is biased. We live in a culture where there's a particular perspective that is privileged above others, because it is assumed to be the default and narrators who deviate from it have to be flagged as such: the default narrator is white, male, educated, affluent (or at least middle class), western, and has agency. Poor people, women, the disabled, the infirm and elderly, the colonised—these people tend to have impaired (or no) agency, that is, no scope to act against constraints imposed by their social context. They're not going to have adventures—or any escapades they do have will come at considerable cost (lost jobs, lost homes, pregnancy, assault, arrest and prosecution for offenses a rich white dude can shrug and walk away from). Telling the tales of the un-privileged is a challenge of a different kind, and escapist fiction often shies away from such doleful realism.

You can generally extrapolate from the Bechdel Test to other traditionally unprivileged or underprivileged groups in fiction—for example, LGBT+ visiblity, ableism, ageism, racism, cultural hegemony. Are they represented in a work of fiction where you might reasonably expect to see them? And if not, why not?

Obviously there are settings where such tests are inappropriate or misleading. The Bechdel Test doesn't tell us anything useful about fiction set in a single-sex community such as a girls' boarding school or a cloistered monastery, for example. Nor does the ageism version of the test work if you set it in the world of Logan's Run or, conversely, an old-age home.

But if you're writing a story you should probably take a look in the mirror, then check the cast to see who's missing.

1654 Comments

1:

Scalzi has repeatedly done a thing where a character's gender is never revealed. I wonder how that would score.

Huh, maybe I should just ask him.

2:

I'm pretty sure I've done that too (caveat: can't remember right now!). Also one story where there are three gender binary axes and everyone has at least two genders simultaneously. (Other aspects of the setting didn't work.)

3:

A problem, perhaps, with the other "marginalised" groups - you specifically mentioned LGBT - is/are:
1: Those groupings are minorities - & I don't mean 45%, I mean down in single-digits ... and, before anyone goes off "bang" or even "pop" at that sentence ...
2: "Hard" LGBT+ persons are probably thin on the ground, whereas, people who are bisexual, or "only" 85% ( Say - I picked the number out of thin air ) "normal-heterosexual" - whatever that is, are actually in the vast majority ...
No-one said it was easy, & congratulations to Charlie for raising this one.
If only because of the vast, huge, gigantic shift in both public opinion & understanding of the wide range(s) of both human sexuality but also minority groups in general.
I can remeber the 1950's - & apart from some rare railway track & a few locomotive-types I missed I cannot imagine any possible reason AT ALL for wanting to go back there.

As usual, there are reactionaries, fascist & religious believers who are swimming aginst this - who appear to be winning in some areas, shudder.
{ Turkey, Florida, Putin's Russia, about 1/3rd of the tory party membership, some of the "gulf" states, & African states that have been captured by either evangelical christianity or brutalist sects of islam, for starters .. }

4:

I'm guessing until humans have some way other than sight to sorta label other humans esp. strangers (friend vs foe, potential mate vs. rival), you're stuck having to describe your characters.

I do like the 3rd person POV where the narrator's characteristics (and reliability) are undisclosed so it becomes more of a challenge for the reader to decide who's likeable, trustworthy or not.

Has anyone ever done a 'blinded' study on the success of a book based on its central character's sex/race/ethnicity/age/occupation? Should be easy for English language stories - just do a search and replace for a few pronouns.

5:

I'm not 100% sure how exactly you intend the extrapolation to work (in particular, what corresponds to "talk to each other about something other than a man") but it made me think of one example which isn't particularly an "underprivileged group", but which is similarly hard to find good examples of in fiction, namely (non-fanatical) religious beliefs.

There's plenty of examples of religion in novels, often as an important plot point. But very few cases of characters who have religious beliefs, but that fact is not important to the plot (and which doesn't somehow identify the character as "unusual", which is the relevant aspect of Bechdel Test if I'm understanding your extrapolation correctly).

6:

I'd have to go back and check, but I thought there was a scene with the girls in Equoid that just squeaks it through, but that's be a pass-by-luck if it even is there.

7:

Awestruck that you went back and analysed/re-read thousands of pages of your own work to figure this out. Long series authors presumably need to do this to lower the rate of plot inconsistencies, but is re-reading your own work a Recommended Author Thing To Do?

8:

I did not re-read my books to figure this out—re-reading them all would be a six month project at this point!

Some authors re-read. Some maintain a world book. I generally do neither because by the time they're published I'm sick to the back teeth of them (although before I write the Last Laundry Files Novel I'll probably have to re-read them -- gack).

9:

Can a book that "fails" the Bechdel Test then be a good book, or is it automatically a bad book?

10:

If memory serves me right, Trunk and Disorderly doesn't pass it, although it's one of those settings where sex, gender, and attendant hardware are rather ... flexible.

11:

I'll try to assume that you asked that in good faith, for now.

But yes, book which fails the Bechdel Test can be a good book, as in a book (or another type of story) which passes it can be bad. It's not a test of quality, it's more of a test of equality (pun intended).

I think it's a good measure among others to see if what you're creating addresses people as, well, people. It's not the end-all-be-all for anything.

I can think off-hand of multiple examples of media which don't pass the test and which I still consider good. I think you can, too, for vaules of good for you, and perhaps even some media which passes the test and which you consider good. And the other way 'round, too.

12:

Can a book that "fails" the Bechdel Test then be a good book, or is it automatically a bad book?

Is "The Name of the Rose" a bad book? Because that's a definite fail!

(Spoiler: "The Name of the Rose" is set among monks in a mediaeval monastery, so it can't pass the BT. This doesn't make it bad, though. As noted towards the end, some situations render the test inapplicable.)

13:

Yep. There's a whole range of fiction set among posthumans/non-humans where the classic Bechdel test simply doesn't work because it assumes sexes/genders are evenly distributed and mostly immutable.

14:

Is there a gender bias in CASE NIGHTMARE GREEN entities?

15:

Representation is a challenge for creators, particularly now. I have written (but not published) a few short stories that take place around where I live. It would be absurd not to include indigenous people, who are a bit part of the population and all around me. At the same time, my knowledge of local indigenous culture is limited, and it is hardly appropriate for me to 'make shit up' about an historically brutalized culture (notably brutalized by the culture I am a part of to boot).

It's a needle I have a hard time threading. I want to/have to include indigenous people and viewpoints, I cannot appropriate their voices. The same applies to women, GLBTQ etc. I am a moderately well-off middle aged, educated cis-het white guy in a culture that makes people like me the default perspective. I want to include other voices in my output, I don't want to appropriate or project onto those voices or experiences.

16:

Crucial edit "A BIG part of the population'. Not a bit part, very different meaning.

17:

The Bechdel-test is a crude sanity-check, intended to highlight the magnitude of a huge inequality problem, and it has done so very effectively.

It is neither a precision tool, nor a check-list-item to decide if an individual work of entertainment is "good" or "bad" - and if it is used that way, we will just see the horrible cop-out of "the token black" extended to "the token chick-talk".

Think of it this way: The average height of a population is a very good proxy measurement for malnutrition and famine, the height of an individual person is not.

18:

And ... of course .. we have "forgotten" { Or have we? } a recent set of specifically SF books, where the gender/sex of the characters is ... *flexible":
Ian Bank's "Culture".
I don't think the late Jack Chalker's series (plural) qualify, though he was definitely reaching in that direction, with, as he himself admitted, inadequate means.

19:

I am afraid that using this as a simple, unqualified test, rather than an indicative measure, deeply offends my statistical soul!

A FAR better test would be whether there were disproportionately more male-male conversations than female-female. I shall now explain why.

Yes, I agree that some 'affirmative action' is still necessary, though it isn't the 1950s any more, when sexual stereotypes were ubiquitous. In the following that would add a bit of justifiable bias, but not change the points - note that the calculations are for the unbiassed scenario.

Let's ignore the contexts in which a sex imbalance is to be expected. The question is how many pairs of people have conversations. Even for books with six such pairs, one in six such books should have no male-male interactions (and ditto for female-female). Once you have only two such pairs, it's more likely than not that there would be no male-male (or female-female).

20:

Bechdel Test is not intended for the assessment of individual films or books or whatever, its main use is to demonstrate the bias present in "films as such" or "books as such".

You can have a very good book with no women in it, but if, say, 60% of all published books had no women in them at all, then I'd say the book publishing industry would have a very big problem.

(Currently about 40% of films do not pass the Bechdel test.)

21:

The interesting problem with the Bechdel test and their kin is that it's easier to do in some types of stories than in others. The general issue is that stories have word or time limits (for non-word media), so space you use for passing any sort of test may be less available for other uses.

For example, SFF generally has a fair amount of scene-setting, which can limit space for human interaction. The cliched way around this is "As you know, Bobbie," said Alice...

I'd also suggest that stories with motor-mouthed first person narrators (perhaps Bob Howard?) have space issues that complicate including interpersonal interactions among other characters. To make such a story more Bechdel-affirming, the author might need to write something like "I cringed through Alice Karen-splaining the disease to Bobbie, who had an MD but happened to be brown-skinned and 20 years older than Alice."

Scalzi's Kaiju Preservation Society is a great example of limits in action. It passes a whole gamut of diversity tests by leaving out two things: a romance sub-plot (it's primary a workplace drama taking place over a short period of time) and extensive descriptions of the setting. IMHO that extra space allowed him to get away with a first-person narrator. I'm not grumping about the story, which I quite enjoyed, merely using it as a presumably well-known recent example of how to make the tradeoffs work.

22:

The Wikipedia article for the Bechdel test has a really good section "Derived tests" (which, disclaimer, I have contributed to). That includes the Vito Russo test for queer representation (Does the film contain a character that is identifiably LGBT, and is not solely or predominantly defined by their sexual orientation or gender identity, as well as tied into the plot in such a way that their removal would have a significant effect?).

Latif & Latif’s tests for representation of people of colour are clearly quite analogous to Bechdel’s work but I really liked Raman Mundair’s 10-point expansion, which I think does a really good job at highlighting other problematic tropes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bechdel_test#Derived_tests

23:

Hmmm... does a woman talking about her parents pass or fail?

My first novel, 11,000 Years, I think passes, since I have female characters who are talking about what's happening... but do they have to be speaking between themselves, or will a more general conversation work?

My next novel, later this year, passes with a hell, yes. Of course, that leads to another question: what kind of conversation about a man? I mean, does it have to be a personal relationship... or what if it's about the boss/patron, and what he'll allow (say, for a major in uni)?

24:

One way at looking at the Bechdel test is less looking at the first clause (‘at least two women‘) for representation but more at the second clause (’talking to each other about something different than a man‘). The latter is a difference between the character(s) written as persons or written as statists for another character.

As an example the only (unnamed) woman in The Name of the Rose is clearly a statist. We only see her through Adson’s eyes and Adson’s thoughts. Her only job in the novel is reflecting Adson‘s cluelessness, although that is a plot point in its own.

25:

https://www.theatlantic.com/sexes/archive/2013/03/the-mixed-results-of-male-authors-writing-female-characters/273641/

The Mixed Results of Male Authors Writing Female Characters

No winners or losers on which sex writes the other better. But there are strong opinions. When Nation magazine writer and poet Katha Pollitt learned that I was pondering whether men write women better than women themselves, her response practically crashed my computer. "You could not possibly be suggesting that! I think few men write female characters who are complex and have stories of their own. Where are the vivid, realistic and rounded portrayals of women in Roth, Bellow, Updike?"

Warning: potentially sexist minefield to follow....

There is a general complaint (see above) that male authors fail miserably when writing female characters. For example, it would seem that Jane Austin did a much better job at portraying Mr. Darcy than any male author could have done with the character of Elizabeth Bennet.

OK, which is easier, male authors writing female characters or female authors writing male characters?

Who is more accurate?

Do women do a better job of representing men than the other way around?

Does a male writer try to inhabit a female mind set (is there really such a thing?) when writing a female character or is she just "one of the boys" and he writes her as he would any other character?

Do female authors even have this problem since they have sized up men long ago?

Would this entire discussion be a sexist waste of time?

26:

For some cringe worthy (but humorous) examples of male author failure see:

https://www.boredpanda.com/male-authors-writing-about-women/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=organic

30 Times Male Authors Showed They Barely Know Anything About Women

27:

Should the highest possible Bechdel score go to LeGuinn's "Left Hand of Darkness"?

And how about Heinlein's "I will fear no Evil"?

28:

OK, which is easier, male authors writing female characters or female authors writing male characters?

Who is more accurate?

Do women do a better job of representing men than the other way around?

If you've read Season of Skulls you'll be aware that I did a deep dive into a romance subgenre first. Overall women seem to do about as bad a job at writing men as men do at writing women. That is: some of them write believable male characters, complete with plausible interior narrative and attitudes, but many write men hilariously badly. Hey, authors are not identically insightful.

(This is even taking into account that in genre romance the male lead and antagonists fill a specific social role relative to the female lead.)

I strongly suspect (this is my probably-on-the-spectrum analysis speaking) that authors (of whatever gender identity) who get other genders right do so because they start from the premise that we're all variations on Humanity 1.0, and you can then apply cultural and social modifiers (and some biology: trivially: cisgender men don't have any experience of period pain or PMS, cisgender women have never been kneed in the balls). While authors who were brought up in a religion that emphasizes segregated sexual roles mistake the performance of the role for the experience of being what the role represents.

Finally: this Wednesday is my and my wife's 30th anniversary. (Also our 20th wedding anniversary.) If you're an adult male human author who has been in a decade-plus relationship with an adult human female you damned well ought to be able to write at least one female character accurately, from close observation over a period of years, and the converse is true. Nevertheless I am baffled by how many male authors can't even clear this low bar. (No, I'm not baffled. Most men carefully ignore the women they're closest to. It's how they've been trained: women are socially invisibility to men until they do something jarringly out of keeping with expectations.)

29:

You're baffled? I'll take the cheap shot: Sturgeon's Law.

30:

Sturgeon's law explains part, but only part, of it.

31:

If you're an adult male human author who has been in a decade-plus relationship with an adult human female you damned well ought to be able to write at least one female character accurately, from close observation over a period of years, and the converse is true.

Sorry but after 40 years of marriage to the most wonderful woman on the planet (seriously) many things she does still baffle me.

For example, I stand in awe of here ability to socialize and spin a social network out of nothing with complete strangers waiting in the check out line.

At every party or social gathering I've noticed husbands like myself standing around quiet and occasionally smiling while our wives do most of the talking and socializing (unless it involves sports).

As explained by Ron Swanson of "Parks and Rec":

“I'm not interested in caring about people. I once worked with a guy for three years and never learned his name. Best friend I ever had. We still never talk sometimes.”

It would seem that women really are better at creating social networks than men, whereas many men will either have no friends at all or count watching sports on TV without talking to each other as socializing.

And superior ability to create social networks seems to have a medical advantage in helping women live longer than men. Social nets being a main indicator of life expectancy. The Census Bureau reports the average age a wife becomes a widow is 59 and the fact that half of those widows outlive their husbands by 15 to 30 years. In contrast a widower's average life expectancy is only 9.5 years.

32:

For example, I stand in awe of here ability to socialize and spin a social network out of nothing with complete strangers waiting in the check out line.

Yes, but at least you've seen her doing it, and it stuck in your mind. Presumably if you were going to write female characters you'd bear it in mind as one of their distinguishing traits (that varies from baseline Human 1.0, which we all share): they easily and fluently form new social relationships.

33:

True - I did say it was a cheap shot. More, I think that it's the whole broad-based meme (in the older sense of that word) that men are from/women are from/who can figure them out...?

The one and only answer that will allow you to figure the other sex out, and so write realistic characters is to internalize the climax of Sir Gawain and the Green Knight, where Gawain is given The Answer to "what does a woman want?"

34:

Don't leave us hanging.

What do women want?

35:

What do women want?

To continue breathing, except when life's too painful to bear.

Oh, you wanted a debatable answer. Sorry.

How do you want the answers binned and ordered statistically? What kind of within-bin and between-bin comparison stats are you contemplating?

Long story short, there are over four billion-odd women on the planet, so yeah...that answer will cost a bit of coin.

36:

Well, you're no help.....

37:

That's his job ....

38:

I see, so you haven't read it, and don't want to bother.

humph

"Her will, just as any man." And if that isn't clear, she wants to be able to do or say whatever she wants, THE SAME as a man does. Oh, and as much control over her own body as any man does. (Oh, no, I must be... WOKE! How terrible... (/snark)

39:

It took my wife 25 years to even begin to understand me, and I wasn't any faster. We have been married for 45 years now, and have just about got used to each other - but she and I are wildly different in social respects :-)

40:

(shakes head) My late wife and I understood each other from the day we met, and Ellen and I understand each other. My ex's... there's a reason they're ex's.

41:

Well, advanced congratulations to Feorag and yourself for the 28th.

42:

Mikko Parviainen (he/him) @ 11:

I'll try to assume that you asked that in good faith, for now.

The question may not have been articulate enough, but it was made in good faith. Why would you assume it was not?

43:

ttepasse @ 24:

One way at looking at the Bechdel test is less looking at the first clause (‘at least two women‘) for representation but more at the second clause (’talking to each other about something different than a man‘). The latter is a difference between the character(s) written as persons or written as statists for another character.

As an example the only (unnamed) woman in The Name of the Rose is clearly a statist. We only see her through Adson’s eyes and Adson’s thoughts. Her only job in the novel is reflecting Adson‘s cluelessness, although that is a plot point in its own.

I'm not sure I can be clear about this, but would a book with women characters fail the Bechdel test if they DID talk about men?

I mean what if they 99% talked about other stuff, but at some point "men" did slip into the conversation - even if only for a moment - does that completely disqualify the book under the Bechdel test?

In real life women and men BOTH talk about each other AND about other stuff.

44:

DP @ 34:

Don't leave us hanging.

What do women want?

I doubt any man will ever know the answer to that question. But if you ever figure it out, bottle it & sell it. You'll be an instant gazillionaire.

45:

Re: '... varies from baseline Human 1.0, which we all share'

Yeah - the range of human diversity seems to get lost in a lot of novels.

Until recently (past 30-40 years?), in real life the interesting and/or powerful jobs were almost exclusively held by men. Most novels have a fairly short list of characters so if the author is using an important/interesting job or considerable socioeconomic power as the core descriptor of a character's role in the story then it's not surprising that such authors have difficulty in inserting interesting female (secondary) characters. They didn't have many real life examples or experience to draw from.

Question for the folks here (who live in a bunch of different countries/cultures):

Which medium - in your experience - has been fastest to depict multidimensional major female characters?

My guess is TV because TV has the fastest turn-around in terms of production and audience feedback (ratings). Some TV shows that I can think of that pass the Bechdel Test and had multidimensional female characters were: CSI, SVU, ER, Grey's Anatomy and a couple of the StarTreks. Basically: cops, lawyers, docs & lab techs.

I'm guessing that the increase in the number/variety of media is going to make it harder for TV shows to continue their dominance in being able to shift overall social perception. To me, this means movies now are likeliest to draw enough large audiences to have any major societal impact. (One of the reasons I keep mentioning Disney movies - because they're watched and re-watched by kids many, many times and can have a major lasting impact as noted by Florida pols.)

46:

A film containing only women who only ever talk about men would not pass the test. If they ever talk about something other than men then it would pass.

47:

It really helps that both me and my wife are neurodivergent. I am an Aspie, and she is even LESS sociable than I am.

48:

Also see the Murderbot stories -- Murderbot's gender has never been disclosed.

49:

"What women want" = "what people want". To be treated with respect and dignity, usually. Other than that, it depends on the person.

50:

I'm not sure it makes sense to say that bi people aren't "hard LGBT+". That's what the "B" stands for. (And no, bisexuality isn't gay-lite.)

51:

In Chapter 3 of Fugitive Telemetry, Murderbot states its gender as "not applicable", which is consistent with its attitude throughout the series.

52:

The only way I can see that working is for a story in a setting that's already largely race/gender/etc.-neutral. In most other stories these attributes are usually obvious for major characters from social context even without being directly stated, and it's impossible to remove that context without hugely changing the story.

For instance, in our host's latest novel the protagonist's gender is inextricably tied in with the plot because of its social and legal implications. Making a gender-flipped version of that book would require flipping not just that character, but the history and culture of the world she lives in. That in turn probably weakens the horror aspect of the book, because a lot of what makes the New Management books feel creepy (for me, at least) is how closely their supernatural evils line up with real-world evils. If one flips that to a world where [white] men have been treated as property by women, it loses that uncomfortable closeness and becomes a very different book.

53:

One thing worth noting from the original strip, which I have read.

The characters were not complaining about the existence of works that did not pass the test, but about the non-existence of works that did.

They were also talking about movies, where single first person or close third person POV is generally not a thing. So "cannot pass because POV" does not really apply.

I think OGH's record, allowing for all that, is pretty good.

We might also nitpick about when is a conversation about a man, but perhaps we should not.

JHomes

54:

Regarding whether women write men better than men write women, a hypothesis:

Under patriarchy, a man is generally able to ignore women entirely without suffering any obvious downsides. Women, conversely, have to pay attention to men constantly, as threats, as sources of things they want, or simply because almost all media is male-centered.

[Obviously this is over-generalized.]

55:

»Which medium - in your experience - has been fastest to depict multidimensional major female characters?

My guess is TV[…]«

I'm not going to attempt to answer your question, but I have a pertinent observation about the power of TV to cause societal change:

We used to build houses where the kitchen was a very distinct and closed off room, with very distinct and quite expensive building physics, because it was the primary fire hazard.

For instance ceramic tiles were used extensively because they do not catch fire, but true to form, they were "sold" to the women as "easier to clean".

Then along comes sitcomms and in order to be able to make fun of Mum, she has to be on camera, so the wall between the kitchen and living room must go.

As time goes by, in sitcomm-world the two rooms slowly melt together, to the point where a kitchen ends up being just one side-wall of the living room where everything in life seem to happen.

A couple of decades later, give and take, the generation which grew up on soaps design their new houses with a "all-room" or "open kitchen" - /precisely/ as seen on sitcoms, and the number one reason to tear down an (often load-bearing) wall in old buildings is to fuse the kitchen and living room.

Along the way, this also drove almost unprecedented rapid innovation in kitchen white goods, to make that choice also work in practice, most notably the "invention" of the kitchen hood.

The fallout from this transformation is still precipitating.

For instance the "man-cave" and "walk-in-closet" phenomena are very much a counter reaction to the loss of the kitchen as "her room" and the living room as "his room".

Some sociologists have also linked this transformation to the decreasing reproduction ratio and consequent higher value of each offspring, which has led to the "surveillance-mom" and elimination of any kind of privacy for kids.

Do not underestimate the power of a high-bandwidth direct path into millions of brains.

56:

I'm guessing that the increase in the number/variety of media is going to make it harder for TV shows to continue their dominance in being able to shift overall social perception.

I know you're from Canada and I'm from the US so read this with that context. I know the history of "free" TV in Europe is different but the details don't make much sense to me. And as to S. America, Asia, and Africa, well I'm very ignorant.

The dominance of the US/Canada TV shows has already fallen. Hard. At least in terms of the "free" TV prime time market that I grew up with. And maybe you. Anyone else remember NBC's "Must See TV"?

But that went away over the 90s into the 00s. Cable only networks proliferated and the free TV market share fell. A LOT. But over time the major producers of TV shows bought up all of those "cable" networks so now there are only a few actual DIFFERENT networks.

Now things are shifting again. To the streaming networks. And it is getting stranger. Outside of Amazon and Netflix most of the streaming content is now controlled by what was, decades ago, free TV production companies.

It is getting very confusing, at least in the US, of who is a part of what. All of those companies want to control their destiny but most are merging or getiing acquired.

Back to your point. The streaming services seem to be where the experimenting is happening now as to what the boundaries are.

This is causing some consternation amongst some of the true conservatice / evangelicals as to them this is just promoting sin. I keep wondering if the streaming entertainment services will spliter into R and D in the US. Sort of like cable news has. The problem is most overtly religious DRAMA programming is mediocre at best in terms of production values, scripting, acting, etc...

The send us money "blue haired" TV preachers I'm ignoring. As I wish the rest of the planet would do also.

57:

We used to build houses where the kitchen was a very distinct and closed off room, with very distinct and quite expensive building physics, because it was the primary fire hazard.

Yes. But as someone who grew up in the home building industry in the US and kept watching it for the rest of my life...

The issue with kitchens into the 70s in the US was noise and fumes. Preparing meals (mostly by mom) was noisy and tended to generate fumes than needed to be vented to keep the food film off the rest of the house. In the US hoods over stoves have been a thing since the 50s.

These days the biggest issue with our personal kitchen is the noise from the dishwasher. Which is why we typically start it when full on our way to bed. So the noise doesn't interfere with whatever TV thing we might want to watch some evenings.

As to the fire hazard, my father build a house for us in 1956 when I was 2. Around 58/59/60 there was a grease fire while my mom was distracted and let a skillet sit on a flame too long. (I can't remember how many decades ago my wife or I heated grease in a skilet but I digress.) In a rare moment of composure for my mother she managed to run out the back door, turn on the garden hose, drag it back through the door, and put out the cabinets that had caught fire. Saved the house. (My memories are a bit confused but the strongest memory is of it being an exciting day.)

Ceramic counter tops and backsplashes would NOT have made a difference as it was the cabinets next to or above the stove that caught fire. Now in many older homes there were not much in the way of cabinets and my memories of many were none above or next to stoves. Likely a fire avoidance thing. Plus not as much need to store "stuff" as most folks in the 1930s and 1940s didn't have all that much stuff to store in a kitchen cabinet.

58:

_"The Name of the Rose" is set among monks in a mediaeval monastery, so it can't pass the BT. _

Well if I remember correctly, there is one woman in the story, a cleaner or some other sort of servant. She fucks the main protagonist's young male amanuensis, who is also the first-person narrator, to his great surprise and delight. I don't recall her having any other plot function, or possibly even a name. Caveat: it's maybe 30 years since I last read it. I suppose it is technically possible that he could have overheard her talking with another woman (ISTR the liaison occurs in the kitchen, there could have been an older woman cook character), so the opportunity to pass the test existed, and perhaps would not even have been a stretch. But on the balance of things I'm inclined give Eco a generous reading for all this. It's one of those things where passing is good but failing isn't necessarily bad.

I'm actually a huge fan of Eco's non-fiction, he was just such a marvellously acute observer of life.

59:

If it's any consolation, you've got a lot better at this over the years. I found The Annihilation Score to be a bit of a slog, it read like a male author really trying to write a female perspective. In contrast, Season of Skulls was just excellent, I didn't get the try-hard vibe from it.

On another note, having recently re-read Singularity Sky and Palimpstest, it's hard to believe they were written so long ago.

60:

I'm not going to attempt to answer your question, but I have a pertinent observation about the power of TV to cause societal change:

Noted!

I can't see any obvious holes in that analysis, it has strong explanatory and predictive power, and really interesting implications. It's well-known that architecture affects human social behaviour and even the structure of institutions -- look at stuff like how schools were organized before the invention of the corridor, or how the arrival of corridors affected behaviour at royal courts.

(Just up the road from here is Holyrood Palace, sometime home of Mary Queen of Scots and now occasional residence of the British royal family when they're opening parliament. Holyrood Palace predates the corridor, so to enter it and visit the throne room and then the royal chambers you have to traverse a series of audience rooms, each of which would have been filled with supplicants and courtiers, of increasing seniority and in increasingly elaborate costumes as you got closer to the monarch. (Servants used small, inconspicuous, interconnecting doors at the edges of the rooms: nobs used the formal doors and their entrance was noted.) Corridors permitted privacy to emerge by allowing people to move between social settings -- formal rooms -- without interacting.)

Go back a few centuries earlier to stuff like Viking long houses and, well, the implications become more obvious.

Anyway: today we may see the ubiquitous open-plan living/kitchen room in new build homes thanks to the TV sitcom effect. We also see ubiquitous parking/garages and different street-facing frontages as affordances for cars. But the big TV screen as focus of the household is dying, replaced by a bunch of handheld tablets, laptops, and other devices. If AR headsets take off, the big TV may be banished completely because it's an annoyingly intrusive and un-resizable intrusion in the backdrop of the virtual space. And it's also going to have effects on media depictions of modern life, isn't it? Smartphones have also created new etiquette problems in public spaces (the annoying guy on the bus who's viewing a music video on their phone at full volume without headphones: the zombies striding along with eyes downcast, hogging the pavement: and the fact for drivers and cyclists that they now have to treat all pedestrians in view as if they're unaware of the vehicle approaching from behind because noise-canceling headphones are ubiquitous) ... what else is changing?

61:

"OK, which is easier, male authors writing female characters or female authors writing male characters?

Who is more accurate?

Do women do a better job of representing men than the other way around?"

"(No, I'm not baffled. Most men carefully ignore the women they're closest to. It's how they've been trained: women are socially invisibility to men until they do something jarringly out of keeping with expectations.)"

Well people who are placed in a position of social inferiority HAVE to be able to read the mood of their "superior" accurately, and better be able to defuse conflict verbally while avoiding violence.

It's a survival skill.

The butler or the maid know a lot more about their master than the master know about them.

So I'm not surprised that women, who are usually placed in situation of social inferiority, have a much better character reading sensibility than men.

Given Homo Sapiens sexual dimorphism, it may even be a selected character.

62:

We are an example of people who are apparently incompatible, but stay happily married for years. I will give an example, because it is peripherally relevant to the topic of this post, and is why very few authors manage to write convincing characters that are considerably different from themselves.

My wife spent two days alone as a student, revising, and went to go shopping just to have someone to talk to; I can accept that, intellectually, but not understand it as I don't feel it. I took a week's holiday a year to walk (mostly in the Highlands), completely on my own. It took her 25 years to realise that was essential for my sanity, if I had to spend the rest of the year surrounded by PEOPLE.

Some authors have written convincingly about people like me, but they are also ones who include few female characters, and portray them shallowly. It's a rare person who can portray someone very different, convincingly. In my experience, this applies even to most authors when including different sex characters, and I believe different gender, too, though I lack enough personal experience to be sure. No, I don't believe that this is purely a male about female failing, though there are an excessive number of egregiously awful male authors in this respect.

63:

For clarification, the love of solitude is not solely a male characteristic (I have female relatives that have it, in a lesser degree), but the only female authors that I know had it wrote travelogues, which are essentially irrelevent to this topic.

64:

Smartphones have also created new etiquette problems in public spaces

Interesting side note. My daughter is a speech therapist and part of her work includes teaching sign language.

When signing the word "telephone" kids today no longer hold their hand up to the side of their face with pinky extended to the mouth and thumb extended to the ear as if holding an old fashioned phone with speaker and earpiece.

They cup their hand in front of their mouth as if holding a cell phone and pretend to talk.

Most have never even seen the older type of phone.

65:

I highly recommend Lucy Worsley's "History of the Home" in four parts: kitchen, bathroom, bedroom and living room.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnbW1IipihI

I found it amusing that long after indoor plumbing was available and widespread the upper classes continued to use servants to carry their chamber pots out to the rose gardens. Plumbing was considered to be middle class and therefore beneath the aristos.

I've always found "little history" like this, history of ordinary people and how they lived to be far more interesting than kings and battles.

66:

»what else is changing?«

Thomas Friedman spat out a book called "Hot, Flat, and Crowded" about which the less said the better, but the title is probably as good a orediction of the future as we will ever get.

To me the most interesting thing is the "flat" part, which Friedman got totally wrong.

When I grew up, the most remote person I was in regular communication with lived 1850 meters away. Yes, we were nerds: We measured it.

My daughter, now in her late twenties, was in regular communication with people from all over the world at the same age.

I happen to be personally way ahead on that curve, because of UNIX, UseNet and FreeBSD, but I can tell from my cohort, for instance my school-mates, that they have /no/ clue about the world their kids live in - their kids are literally foreign, if not actually alien, to them.

Can I suggest a re-reading of Benedict Anderson's "Imagined Communities", only this time, for "Nation State" read instead "Social Media Site" ?

One thing which has become painfully obvious to me, is that the flatness is being weaponized 19 different ways from sunrise to sunset, by nation states, by mammonists, by criminals and by the sheer stupidity of the crowd.

I have no confidence in my ability to predict what the effects of flat global networking on a personal level will be, but I can see that it is such a tectonic shift, in such fundamental patterns, that most people do not even realize what supposedly umovable structures have been built on top of these now shifting dunes.

67:

The dominance of the US/Canada TV shows has already fallen.

If you want to watch interesting TV watch something out of Germany (get used to subtitles, the dubbing in English is usually godawful)

Generation War (a German version of Band of Brothers)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nNL5koWmVo

Babylon Berlin (1920s German Weimar republic during the jazz age)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2664tNQZGo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=an8gjr6rJcg

Maximilian (founding of the Hapsburg empire - real life Game of Thrones)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nr16j4sRxwM&list=PL8tu4F9QpC75JqtTHa5A1BR-JL6E2XYBu&index=11

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlSaO_eD2d4&list=PL8tu4F9QpC75JqtTHa5A1BR-JL6E2XYBu&index=26

68:

I don't want to support a digression, but that interpretation is more polemic than analysis.

It couldn't have been anything to do with the hassle (and cost) of getting plumbing near to all of the upstairs rooms of a large, often stone-built, building, could it? I have been issued with a chamber pot in such houses, not because there wasn't a bathroom, but because it was a long way away, and the house was DAMN cold! I was expected to empty it myself, of course.

69:

When signing the word "telephone" kids today no longer hold their hand up to the side of their face with pinky extended to the mouth and thumb extended to the ear as if holding an old fashioned phone with speaker and earpiece.

Heard an interview about this not too long ago. Prior to the 50s it was a common sign to pretend to hold an old candlestick phone as if talking on it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candlestick_telephone

Now we could start a digression on what is the age where the word dial no longer makes any sense to the people using it. In a literal meaning of the word.

70:

I vaguely remember "Hot, Flat, and Crowded". How exactly did Friedman get "flat" part "totally wrong"? Details vary of course, but his main point -- that modern world allows global reach at very small cost, -- is almost trivially true.

71:

Generation War (a German version of Band of Brothers)

Now this interests me a lot. And if I get confused I can bug my daughter who is very fluent from a US point of view. (She listens very very well. Speaking she's slow due to lack of practice with the grammar making it hard to use the right words in real time.) I think of the whiteness of the one from the US at times. But in real life it was very much so. I still think the ending of that US series is very powerful.

At some point HBO showed a longer version of "Das Boot" with subtitles. (There are a lot of versions of this from the 80s of various lengths that were used in different situations.)

I think the movie "Red Tails" came off wrong. I wish it had been done better. Seemed like a comedy that was turned into a drama.

I'm still upset with my wife when she told me she didn't tell me about the Tuskegee Airmen who would show up at her airline call center once a year manning a table on a vendor day they'd have. She didn't' think I'd be interested in meeting them. FYI - This was 20 years ago. I suspect there are very few left at 100 years of age.

But again. Thanks

72:

We are an example of people who are apparently incompatible, but stay happily married for years.

I disagree with EC on a myriad of issues.

But I think we're on the same page that people keep assuming what we're thinking about something or our reasoning for doing something and they get it utterly wrong. Because our minds are not their minds and we don't process they way they do. At all.

My wife at times. Last night was one of those.

73:

I found it amusing that long after indoor plumbing was available and widespread the upper classes continued to use servants to carry their chamber pots out to the rose gardens.

I suspect that EC's comment has a bit to do with it.

But even so in the US in all of those brownstones and row houses in the northeastern cities that have been around 100-150 years there is an odd thing. Many of them have the plumbing exposed. Especially the 2nd floor bath and toilet plumbing as it showed they could afford to not have to use an outhouse or chamber pot or tub in the kitchen or back porch to bathe in. Most of that gets hidden in any remodels done since the 1950s.

74:

As for writing or portraying women, I would suggest that all of the common female archetypes in media (warm loving mother, whore with a heart of gold, strong frontier woman, bitchy high school queen bee, ball busting CEO, apple pie baking grandma, manic pixie dream girl, young career woman trying to make it in a man's world, Hallmark Christmas chick flick romantic heroine, etc.) aren't real women at all.

They are men's stereotypes of women.

75:

I would suggest that all of the common female archetypes in media

That's a non-exhaustive list! Although I assume they're common in the media you're consuming, which is presumably targeting male readers.

Totally not surprising that man-targeting entertainment would reinforce mens' stereotypes of women.

76:

what else is changing?

All kinds of things. But I think you're not fully right on at least two points.

The younger ones DO have large screen TVs. But they are not attached to a cable TV system. At least not so much in the US. They stream various things or cast the video from their phone/tablet. The big change is that they don't have a sitting room where that's all they do. Watch TV. Which old farts (my cohort) just doesn't get. To them a house should have a great room / family room where all non eating / sleeping activities should take place. There would be a TV in the corner or over the fire place and the toys over in another corner. The Internet and multiple TVs in a house blew this concept apart. And many of the over 60 crowd just doesn't get it. As a side stat, cable TV subscriptions went down by a NET of 6 million or so in the first 3 months of 2023.

As to open plan kitchens, this would not have happened until meal prep became quieter and quicker. At least in the US. In the 60s/70s my mother spent 2 to 4 hours (or more at times) a day in the kitchen and was making noise and generating oily fumes much of that time. So it was closed off. And in those 1200sf housing days, the laundry was there also. But the indoor kitchen of the last century was better than the semi attached thing of earlier times. Painted black to hide the grease and soot and detached or mostly so to keep a fire from taking down the entire house.

As I've said elsewhere, I go to watch the changes in the US middle class house with a yard from the 60s into current times. I'm constantly amazed at the number of people who think everyone would want a house plan to match theirs. Because we're all alike. Right? This really hit home in the last 10 years of zoning fights as people want their neighbors to build houses just like theirs.

77:
"what does a woman want?"

An answer from a couple of centuries ago:

from "Several Questions Answered"

What is it men in women do require?

The lineaments of Gratified Desire.

What is it women do in men require?

The lineaments of Gratified Desire.

–William Blake

(Were WB writing today, I hope he'd be clued in to the LGBTQ+ community.)

78:

I don't really control the TV except during football season.

Even then I'm limited to one NFL and one college game per weekend.

But your mention of gender targeted entertainment raises a serious question.

Why do women viewers make up 85% of the typical audience for murder shows (Land and Order SVU, Criminal Minds, Dateline, etc.) where horrible things happen to women?

Does this happen naturally or do the producers of these shows knowingly push female fear/fascination buttons?

The British murder shows I watch on BBC America or Britbox (Broadchurch, Happy valley, Prime Suspect, etc.) are far less graphic/demeaning/gratuitous and retain that polite sensibility that the British murder shows have going back to Agatha Christie.

So is this just an American thing?

Even so, why are they so popular among women?

I know I'm not the only one who feels this way. Multiple award winning actor Mandy Patakin played the original head of the Criminal Minds cast and he left the show in disgust. Mandy Patinkin felt he had to step away from Criminal Minds due to the show's dark subject matter. He specifically cited the drama's frequent portrayal of violence against women, which he described as a heavy emotional burden. The actor even went on record to say, "The biggest public mistake I ever made was that I chose to do Criminal Minds in the first place."

During a 2012 interview with New York Magazine, Patinkin opened up about what he actually thought of his role in "Criminal Minds" and the show in general. "The biggest public mistake I ever made was that I chose to do 'Criminal Minds' in the first place," he revealed. "I thought it was something very different. I never thought they were going to kill and rape all these women every night, every day, week after week, year after year. It was very destructive to my soul and my personality. After that, I didn't think I would get to work in television again."

79:

Why do women viewers make up 85% of the typical audience for murder shows (Land and Order SVU, Criminal Minds, Dateline, etc.) where horrible things happen to women?

What is the typical outcome of such shows -- for the murderer? Just guessing here, but they're much more likely to deliver closure via the bad person getting their just desserts than a jump-scare to "thirty years later, the Innocence Project exonerated XXX and he was released from prison: to this day, the true identity of the killer is unknown ..."

Does this happen naturally or do the producers of these shows knowingly push female fear/fascination buttons?

Yes. We expect fiction to push our buttons deliberately; but this goes for all popular entertainment shows, so non-fiction formats cherry-pick for material that delivers the right dopamine hit.

80:

»How exactly did Friedman get "flat" part "totally wrong"?«

Friedman always and only follows the money. For him "flat" (only!) means that the production can happen anywhere in the world, and therefore (All praise the Chicago School of Economics!) will always happen the cheapest place, so US is doomed to a race to the bottom against China etc. etc.

81:

Does this happen naturally or do the producers of these shows knowingly push female fear/fascination buttons?

From a US point of view.

If you want to get a show green lit and get someone or someones to commit $5mil or $20mil, you will need lots of research that says "these demographic groups will watch and they will appeal to these ad sellers". Or if on Netflix and such, attract this many new subscribers or help retain this many existing subscribers.

I suspect much of it is data driven. After the gut feelings play out.

As to the other comments about the gruesomeness of the shows, well, most real life police crime solving is boring. Utterly so from those in the biz. And an episodic show based on solving boring crimes would be, well, boring. Unless it is a character study. But that is HARD.

82:

means that the production can happen anywhere in the world, and therefore (All praise the Chicago School of Economics!) will always happen the cheapest place

I think the US PRI radio show Marketplace did a series on global trade. They did it on making T-shirts. Like are bought and sold at a concert. They worked backwards through the supply chain to where the typical cotton was grown then did the series from the dirt to the final product. I think their bit of cotton went across an ocean multiple times and traveled through 10 or so countries to get from a plant to a product to be sold.

The folks on this show dedicated to economics and business reporting were even to themselves a bit amazed.

83:

Well, Friedman was not wrong. Race to the bottom DOES happen.

I mean, there is far more to the world being "flat" than that, and the race to the bottom is not even the most consequential part of it, but it is like saying "Tables exist for eating". It's a very small part of truth, but it is not wrong.

84:

Colin @ 46:

A film containing only women who only ever talk about men would not pass the test. If they ever talk about something other than men then it would pass.

Ok. That's like 180° from what I was thinking - women who mostly talk about other stuff, but do occasionally talk about men.

85:

David L @ 56:

The send us money "blue haired" TV preachers I'm ignoring. As I wish the rest of the planet would do also.

I don't want to ignore them. I want to put 'em all in rickety submersibles & let 'em go visit the Titanic!

I've been almost TV-less for 25 years or so ... only watching "TV" on YouTube or when I spent a night in a hotel room (which mostly meant sleeping with the TV on).

What you can get on YouTube is inconsistent, but I guess a lot of it would be compatible with the theme of the Bechdel test (woman's first person POV not talking about men).

86:

I don't understand your description of cooking at all. Literally.

I cook a lot, like dinner almost every night, and have since my early twenties (except when my partner cooked). I don't make much noise, nor do I get much grease all over.

And why does cooking meat make "a lot of noise"?

87:

I am reminded of the mid-nineties, at a Philcon, in the dealers' room. An author friend of mine and I start talking, and he drags me over to a used book dealer, and finds this book allegedly written by Newt Gingrinch. In the preface, you meet this "pouty-lipped woman". He tells me that she's a major character... but DON'T EVEN KNOW HER NAME until (he found it) around page 226.

88:

Today, I'm wearing a t-shirt my computer professional daughter gave me - a floppy disk with a word balloon reading "I am your father", and a flash drive with a word balloon, "Noooooooo!"

The very nice young nurse this morning liked it... but after I explained, she had to google what a floppy disk was.

Yes, I do feel ancient....

89:

We recently bought another set of waterbed sheets for our bed. Egyptian cotton, sewn in India.

90:

Y'know, I am really looking forward to hearing comments about this when my next book comes out, maybe later this year.

91:

“And why does cooking meat make "a lot of noise"?” Have you never tried getting the cat into the microwave?

92:

DP @ 74:

As for writing or portraying women, I would suggest that all of the common female archetypes in media (warm loving mother, whore with a heart of gold, strong frontier woman, bitchy high school queen bee, ball busting CEO, apple pie baking grandma, manic pixie dream girl, young career woman trying to make it in a man's world, Hallmark Christmas chick flick romantic heroine, etc.) aren't real women at all.

They are men's stereotypes of women.

Charlie Stross @ 75:

I would suggest that all of the common female archetypes in media

That's a non-exhaustive list! Although I assume they're common in the media you're consuming, which is presumably targeting male readers.

Totally not surprising that man-targeting entertainment would reinforce mens' stereotypes of women.

Just out of curiosity, what kind of stereotypes do women use when they're writing FOR women?

93:

We recently bought another set of waterbed sheets for our bed. Egyptian cotton, sewn in India.

The point of the radio series was it was grown in one country, then the bales processed (washed and combed?) in another, then turned into threads in another, then into bolts in another, .....

At times looping back to a country where it had been before.

94:

David L @ 81:

Does this happen naturally or do the producers of these shows knowingly push female fear/fascination buttons?

From a US point of view.

If you want to get a show green lit and get someone or someones to commit $5mil or $20mil, you will need lots of research that says "these demographic groups will watch and they will appeal to these ad sellers". Or if on Netflix and such, attract this many new subscribers or help retain this many existing subscribers.

I suspect much of it is data driven. After the gut feelings play out.

As to the other comments about the gruesomeness of the shows, well, most real life police crime solving is boring. Utterly so from those in the biz. And an episodic show based on solving boring crimes would be, well, boring. Unless it is a character study. But that is HARD.

Also, I think U.S. TV has always been more graphic because of the way it developed from competing commercial networks. NBC, CBS & ABC were always trying to out-do each other to attract viewers.

In the U.K. the BBC did not (at first) have any competitors, but you did have the wicked witch Mary Whitehouse constantly carping on anything and everything that [EXPLETIVE!! DELETED!!] "offended" her narrow minded sensibilities.

95:

I don't make much noise, nor do I get much grease all over.

Pots and pans banging. Chopping things with knives on a block.

As to grease. Frying chicken or salmon patties in Crisco or lard. Or just making pasta sauce or beef stew in a big pot. Over time it will build up.

This was my mom. And most of the other ladies of her time. Southern cooking.

We are NOT all the same.

Oh. I rarely each such things now. Well pasta with sauce but...

96:

Most of the graphic stuff that has been mentioned here showed up AFTER cable TV became big and the 3 (and a half) OTA networks were being pushed aside. I think Europe has cable now. :)

97:

David L @ 96:

Most of the graphic stuff that has been mentioned here showed up AFTER cable TV became big and the 3 (and a half) OTA networks were being pushed aside. I think Europe has cable now. :)

I understand that, but the ROOTS from which it developed are still relavant.

I think Europe has a lot more satellite service as well.

Realizing my experience is now 20 years out of date, we had satellite receivers while I was in Iraq. Officially they were supposed to stay tuned to CNN or "Fox News" (which was BAD BIASED even then, but not as bad as it is today) ... but there was also a BBC News channel I'd try to switch it to when Fox got too bad ...

And AFTER duty hours ... the office became the rec room & the TV got switched to other things.

The ones I mostly remember were the music channels. There was a French MTV clone called MCN, but there were also music video channels from Turkey & India; Eastern Europe. MCN had a lot of music from North Africa, but also from further south.

Rock 'n Roll went out into the world, and what came back was WOW! The French took it in new directions and their influence further south was amazing. The local music was strangely good & the videos had high production values.

There were also channels with whatever TV shows were popular in their countries of origin. I didn't watch them so much because either they didn't have closed captioning (with auto-translation) or our equipment wasn't able to receive captions.

But there were a few U.S. TV shows dubbed into local languages & it was sometimes fun to catch something like Hawaii Five-Oh where you could follow what was happening even if you didn't understand the dialog.

U.S. cop shows did seem to be the big sellers overseas.

98:

Well, roasting or boiling; even probably stewing, are quiet activities, but frying definitely sizzles.

99:

Oh. I don't make much noise with pots and pans, and I have no idea how she made that much noise on the chopping block (I question how sharp her knices were, and her technique).

Salmon patties, in lard? No, I open a can, mix it exactly as I do hamburger (that is, add eggs, shredded onion, and bread crumbs, and saute it in enough olive oil to grease the pan...

100:

Care to name groups or "movements" of French or further south? I'd be curious.

101:

Really really interesting. Just to post the counter ( or possibly complementary ) argument: it may also have something to do with equality/not exiling the wife to the kitchen? Once the man sometimes cooks he doesn’t want to be sent to a closed off annex. Let everyone watch /talk to him/ appreciate his brilliance.

Or putting it more nicely, in an equal partnership you don’t exile anyone to a cooking room. You all hang out together.

Fascinating insight. I will think on this.

( *Every so often when I wonder why I still devote time reading the comments on this blog which -no offence, I have massive affection to all the regulars whose lives I find myself half-following - can be like a few old timers chatting the same conversations in a local bar, a notion like this lands. Cuts across all my interests - roughly how tech meets built environment meets social trends in city building. )

102:

Just out of curiosity, what kind of stereotypes do women use when they're writing FOR women?

Go read some womens' fiction. I'm not your homework oracle.

103:

At times looping back to a country where it had been before.

As we've discussed elsewhere on this blog, multimodal container shipping cut the price per ton for international cargo shipping by two orders of magnitude between 1960 and 1980. It costs about $2000 to send a 1-TEU container with 20 tons of cargo from the dockyards in Shenzhen to western Europe. So little that it's profitable to ship springwater from Fiji, because it's about 50 cents per half-litre (US pint) bottle but it's sold as a premium product for double the price of local spring water.

If you king-sized cotton sheet weighs 1Kg and retails for $10 (it's probably more, a $10 kingsize cotton sheet is an Amazon loss-leader) then the contents of a single container that costs $2000 to ship have a retail value of $200,000. So the cost of moving the raw fabric back and forth is lost in the noise.

104:

$10? ROTFL! A waterbed sheet, king-size, consists of a top sheet sewn to a bottom sheet which is fitted (that is, it has places for short lengths of pvc pipe to hold it under the corners) and two pillow cases. $80 and up, as in up to $180 or so.

105:

Yup, so there you go! That's a $1M shipping container cargo (by retail value) that costs $2000 to send halfway around the world.

The most mind-blowing thing about consumer capitalism I know about is what happens when Apple releases a new generation of iPhones. Tens of millions of units get shipped to receiving centres around the world by air freight. They only weigh about 500g each in boxes, so 2000 of them per ton, and it takes 200,000 iPhones to fill a cargo 747: That single 747 is carrying maybe $200M of product; five of them carry $1Bn of produce, or 1M iPhones. And Apple block-book so many freighters it causes the price of air freight shipping to spike globally ...

(Gold bullion, as a yardstick, costs on the order of $40M/tonne, so that cargo 747 could carry about $4Bn of gold.)

106:

Clive James borrowed that for one of his song lyrics...
"A straight-up scalp-collector I could understand
All those lineaments of gratified desire
But he's handing me that old refining fire
This to me, the Shadow and the Widower"

107:

You’ve never tried cooking Indian food then. You dry fry the spices in a hot skillet then add oil and sauces, which causes a percentage to vapourise with the steam and coats the room over time. Long term the environment picks up an orange tint from the spices.

It’s one reason why people who rent to ethnic groups complain about the smells - what’s a comfortable scent to the in group is a general miasma to someone else. You can easily keep renting to the same groups, but switching between isn’t a simple cleaning job, it’s almost a remodel. See also grandma’s house.

108:

Even for books with six such pairs, one in six such books should have no male-male interactions

Except that in fiction there are very rarely pointless characters or pointless interactions. So it's unlikely that you would read the random blather that constitutes the 99% of a characters life, only the 1% where they're visible to the narrative.

Fiction also dramatically changes emphasis between genres and subgenres. There's (or used to be) a whole genre of "girls with horses" books, and they were about... girls and their horses. Incidental characters like parents, horse-grooms and so on appeared, but you could be forgiven for thinking that the world consisted on a (private, girls) school, a barn full of horse stuff and A HORSE. Also other girls with other horses, but only insofar as they served the needs of THE GIRL and THE HORSE.

In that context the Bechdel-equivalent would be "does a non horse owner talk to another non horse owner about something other than horses". And the answer would generally be: no, why would the author even think to put that in the book?

109:

There (used to be?) whole subreddits dedicated to "men writing women badly" and such things, with occasional attempts to create the vice versa versions but those generally got bombed out of existence quickly through a combination of the dominant group not caring much and the minority caring a lot (and not in a kind way).

I suspect that most minority writers have majority readers, editors or people otherwise involved who point out the more egregious mistakes. But it's relatively easy to miss a particular minority if you're a majority author, and it can be a really PITA to find a skilled minority member to read for you.

This comes up in Australia where there are still ~200 first nations but some are small, so while an author might want to have their "black person from Nanutarra" sound authentic, getting one of the 18 first nations people from Nanutarra to read their draft could be tricky, and the person willing to do it will have their own approach which might not meet the approval of the rest of their family, let alone anyone outside that group who has (strong!) opinions of appropriate representation of first nations people in white-author fiction. And so on.

That's without even considering the opinions of people who have opinions about what constitutes a "real member of the minority". Are bisexuals even queer? Does the one drop rule really make someone a legitimate voice of all nonwhite people everywhere? And so on...

110:

Also the credit card thing at that link is brilliant.

It's weird that the author didn't think to check the anal cavity for a cellphone. We know that cellphones can fit in there both from prisons and the chess world so it's obviously something to check when you find a corpse.

There's also Heinlein's Friday with the belly button pouch. She really wanted to be a marsupial (I assume Heinlein is already banned by the far right, but that sort of furry-adjacent stuff should cause a re-banning).

111:

the fact for drivers and cyclists that they now have to treat all pedestrians in view as if they're unaware of the vehicle approaching from behind

Not to mention pedestrians have to treat drivers and cyclists as if they are unaware of the pedestrian in front of them… :-/

Yesterday I walked to the pharmacy (chemist) to refill a prescription. On the way I had to dodge a young woman who was blithely riding an electric scooter on the sidewalk while looking at her phone. I don't think she saw me. She had earbuds in, so she might well have been mostly cut off from the outside world.

I glad I didn't have earbuds in, otherwise I might not have heard the whisper of the tires coming up behind me.

112:

Which is true, but it wasn't until I read an interview with Martha Wells that I noticed that no gender was ever mentioned.

113:

the love of solitude is not solely a male characteristic (I have female relatives that have it, in a lesser degree), but the only female authors that I know had it wrote travelogues

I wonder if female introverts learn to mask/cope because being 'social' is considered a female trait and so when young they aren't given the same chances for solitude that boys get?

114:

“And why does cooking meat make "a lot of noise"?” Have you never tried getting the cat into the microwave?

Put the microwave on the floor, on its back, with the door open. Wait for cat to sit in box. Close door. :-)

115:

I certainly never did but then I was already an outsider everywhere we went. We were from another country and moved frequently. I went to Catholic schools and my mother was, at various times, an apparently single mother (we moved countries while my father was overseas and he joined us later), divorced and then re-married, so a social pariah in that world at all times, and I was too clever by half for my frequently new schoolmates -- it's funny how much stuff you pick up when you read all the time... One of my early memories, I must have been about 6, was reading The Last Battle under the kitchen table with a blanket over it to make a tent. I would have spent much more time on my own except I had to look out for my younger sister; there wasn't any childcare for single working mothers in NZ in the late '60s/early /70's. "On the way I had to dodge a young woman who was blithely riding an electric scooter on the sidewalk while looking at her phone. I don't think she saw me. She had earbuds in, so she might well have been mostly cut off from the outside world." I don't know if it's an introvert thing, but this horrifies me. The thought of being out in the world and not paying attention just does my head in -- I WANT to know what's going on around me.

116:

Re: 'Once the man sometimes cooks he doesn’t want to be sent to a closed off annex. Let everyone watch /talk to him/ appreciate his brilliance.'

And his $50,000 remodeled kitchen with the latest in kitchen tech. Sometimes it's more about the toys than the food.

Realistically though with the long commutes and greater variety of prepared meals in the frozen section of most grocery chains (pop into the microwave for a few minutes, and eat!) plus more types of restaurants providing delivery service, the average number of meals 'cooked' at home is dropping. Home cooking for working/commuting folk is more likely on weekends or holidays.

Open concept works for both of the above scenarios. The kitchen island is usually part of the open concept and is just large and high enough to hide any mess.

About US TV cop dramas-

Mostly these shows are aspirational - what cops, lawyers, the justice system would like to be seen as.

Nevertheless, the taking victims' experiences seriously (e.g., women in SVU) has made a big difference in that such crimes are not as often offhandedly dismissed as trivial or the fault of the victim.

117:

I wonder if female introverts learn to mask/cope because being 'social' is considered a female trait and so when young they aren't given the same chances for solitude that boys get?

I asked my very introverted wife this question. She said she tried to mask, but was never good at it. Instead, she learned at a very young age that at night, when everyone else went to sleep, they would leave her alone. Consequently she developed a lifelong habit of sleeping during day and being awake at night, and leveraged this habit into taking jobs which very few people want.

I supposed it is a form of coping mechanism.

118:

The thought of being out in the world and not paying attention just does my head in -- I WANT to know what's going on around me.

Mine too.

I've talked to cyclists who ride on the sidewalk, and they insist that it is safer than the road. A few years ago a cyclist killed a pedestrian in Toronto, and was noticeably not only not sorry but blamed the poor woman for not looking both ways before she stepped on the sidewalk.

Toronto police don't track cyclist-pedestrian collisions unless someone is killed. In the most recent cases the fatal collisions have been hit-and-runs, the cyclist remaining at large.

So yeah, I walk defensively now.

119:

Consequently she developed a lifelong habit of sleeping during day and being awake at night,

In my younger years, travelling with tour groups, I got in the habit of going to bed early and getting up early, which gave me 1-2 hours of peace.

At work I arrived close to 7 AM, which gave me an hour of peace before the school started to get busy. (Classes started at 8:45 which is normal for Ontario — I understand American schools start a lot earlier, like 7:30 or before.)

120:

Its not just motorists and cyclists. I drive one of these - see https://www.christchurchattractions.nz/christchurch-tram/ - and part of the route is through pedestrian'ised areas. While we travel at walking pace through such areas you definitely have to watch out for pedestrians whose minds are elsewhere and not just while they are looking at their phones and/or have zero situational awareness. (And we cannot swerve or dodge around those pedestrians).

I wonder if its some form of counter-evolutionary survival thing...

121:

Damn! That’s brilliant! So much for “no, I never microwave cats; it’s too hard to get them in” (I think a quotation of Bun-Bun?)

122:

Darwin's Tram? Sounds like you have a whole different sort of trolley problem :)

I got knocked off my bike by a pedestrian last week, but in a novel way. I was riding on the road, a metre out from the parked cars like a sensible person. And there was a dog in the middle of the road. So I slowed down. Turned out the dog was attached to a pedestrian on the footpath by one of those retractable leads made of thin black string. Just after dawn it was bloody invisible.

Luckily I was going slowly enough that I more or less stepped off the bike. The pedestrian and dog took off running. I guess out of concern that they'd injured me, or perhaps that I would be annoyed by their actions?

But WTF letting your dog walk all over the road when there's traffic on it?

123:

»(Gold bullion, as a yardstick, costs on the order of $40M/tonne, so that cargo 747 could carry about $4Bn of gold.)«

Only in theory: High density cargo is very hard to stow to limit: You need a lot of high-strength crating to hold it in place, in case down isn't.

Even the classical "full of punched cards/magtapes/cdroms" bandwidth hypothetical runs into that.

PS: Water is six times over the limit for "high density cargo".

124:

I wonder if female introverts learn to mask/cope because being 'social' is considered a female trait and so when young they aren't given the same chances for solitude that boys get?

My mother made comments along the lines of liking being in solitude when growing up.

But she was severely manic/depressive (not officially diagnosed and in total denial but ...) and so I don't know how much this played into the situation. Don't such conditions mostly appear in late teens or even later?

125:

I understand American schools start a lot earlier, like 7:30 or before.

Sort of.

High school (teens) start early like that. Elementary (pre-teens) start around 9:00 or 9:30. Middle schools (figure it out) start between them.

Medical science says we have it backwards. But attempts to change meet incredibly fierce resistant. Plucking chickens and melting tar type resistance. Mostly from working moms. The current schedule allows families (well mostly moms) to hire teens as baby sitters for the younger kids for the afternoons so the moms can work or whatever.

And before anyone gets annoyed at my use of the word "mom". My wife and I decided after a few months of day care when my son was between 1 and 2 to NOT use the child care system if at all possible. We both worked. Her a shift bid call center, me self employed. We arranged our lives so that 99% of the time we were with our kids. I spent more time with mine than most of the moms we knew. But I did get to see how many of the moms operated their lives.

126:

For some cringe worthy (but humorous) examples of male author failure see:

Agree with most of the cringiness. But there is one I think is spot on. If still a bit sexist.

#18 The Count Of Monte Cristo- 1884

Whose beauty was quite remarkable in spite of her thirty-six years.

Photographs of families from that era in the US show parents with a flock of kids around them and the parents look at be in their 60s or later by today's standards. Even if they are really in their 30s. Especially farmers who spent a lot of time outdoors. Life was hard. It aged people. Especially their faces. I have some tin type photos of my ancestors from around then. None look youthful.

127:

You can easily keep renting to the same groups, but switching between isn’t a simple cleaning job, it’s almost a remodel. See also grandma’s house.

Yep. We don't notice the smells that are NORMAL to us. And in ethnically segregated areas we just don't notice the smells.

As to grandma's house, you mean the one where you can write in the film that is high up on the walls?

128:

Rbt Prior
Yesterday, "the boss" was nearly "got" by a total fuckwit riding an electric scooter past our front gate at FAR TOO FAST, dark clothing, no helmet - a danger to everybody - even if he was thankfully stupid enough to waste himself, the cleaning up would be extremely tiresome!

A propos of that, at night Wiley e Bicycle has bright lights, I have a helmet-flashing light & wear orange reflectives - I STILL need the loud bicycle bell, because idiots simply do not look ....

Steph NZ
A * PROPER* Tram! - like the ones they used to have in Innsbruck

129:

dark clothing,

I've come to the conclusion that some people in my neighborhood think that clothing that blends into the background at dusk and after sunset is the best thing to wear when out walking.

130:

Bechdel Test: wondering how the Raadchai do in Anne Leckie's "Ancillary Justice" et seq. fall?? (Not to mention the Interpreters.) :-)

And as for containers, what used to be $2,000 is now $20,000, if not $30,000...

131:

There are, however, plenty of books with only a few characters major enough to have actual conversations (transactions with innkeepers etc. rarely count). And see what OGH said about the Atrocity Archives and Jennifer Morgue.

There are also books (and lots of films) with women pasted in just to show they have them. I still remember with horror (after 60 years) an abortion of King Solomon's Mines that did that (see the introduction to the book why that is so appalling). As you will guess, she did nothing except hang around being useless - a GREAT role model.

And it was shot in California - as someone recently returned from the part of Africa depicted in the book, I knew what it should look like!

132:

getting one of the 18 first nations people from Nanutarra to read their draft could be tricky

The traditional ways to resolve such a problem if you (the author) don't personally have a Nanutarran who owes you a favour are (a) pay one of them to do a sensitivity read, or (b) invent a fictional first nation based on what you know about Nanutarra that has the characteristics you want for the story but a name sufficiently different that you have plausible deniability.

There are other problems with this approach, but you're less likely to be called out for being an asshole if the people you're being an asshole about don't exist.

133:

I noted that one, too. #1 boggled me, because it showed the author didn't know anything about MALE anatomy, either! When it comes to difficulty pissing, it's far more often a male problem, and is near-universal in elderly males. Leakage is another matter.

One of the responses had a highly amusing typo., because it missed out a "not" and seemed to show that women are sometimes as ignorant about male anatomy as the converse: "Boobs are testicles. They don't "withdraw" because there is muscle and a rib cage underneath and they are just mounds of fat and milk producing tissue."

134:

About a year ago I had to take a child to hospital with a broken arm after a fall from the monkey bars.

Two of the doctors there had a (good natured) argument about whether monkey bars or trampolines were the leading cause of broken bones in children.

They agreed that electric scooters had overtaken all other causes of fractures in adults.

135:

Generation War (a German version of Band of Brothers)

I watched this youtube fragment you've linked and I have very strong ambivalent feelings about this, I mean a TV show with Wehrmacht protagonists at the Eastern Front is an ethical minefield. (Quick look at the Wikipedia shows that the show did, indeed, generate significant controversies)

Weirdly enough, when I watched the US TV series "SEAL Team" (which is an excellent piece of US military propaganda, very technically solid and realistic representation of how the US military uses its enormous technological and logistical capacities to stack the deck in its favour as far as it can go) I sometimes had this feeling that in a "Man in High Castle" future a TV series about heroic Waffen SS soldiers fighting terrorists would look very similar.

136:

Turned out the dog was attached to a pedestrian on the footpath by one of those retractable leads made of thin black string

I've used those. They're actually the best thing for letting them sniff around and explore, basically it's as much like being off the lead and free roaming as it's possible to get while still technically and (important this) legally being on the lead. Not using one at the moment as technically both our dogs are in training (both the 9-year-old rescue and the 15-month-old puppy), and these are totally wrong for training. Having said that the other reason to use the retractable lead, vs free roaming, is that you can stop your dog going on the road and getting killed. It could have been the human was picking up poo and had forgotten to lock the reel (or fumbled it... the expensive ones work okay with cold hands, the cheap ones are often complete junk). Especially first thing in the morning... guess my thinking is the same reason I'm a risk-averse Nelly when I'm driving. I assume the other car is full of noisy children and the driver has the attention span of a sandfly on ice (australisch for crystal meth), that half awake and squinting as I usually am, that everyone else is probably worse off. And why I might drive a 4,000km round trip and still brake for tailgaters when I'm nearly home.

137:

last time I ran the numbers for hard-disks (semi trailer from the east coast of the US to the west coast) the bandwidth was pretty decent (taking shipping box packaging volume into account) latency however was nothing to crow about. Yet, these calculations completely ignored the fact that one needs to first write data onto the disk at the source and read it off them again at the destination, which will add a lot of time (even when read in parallel there are lots of units to handle). Still I guess there are use-cases where this can still be a decent operation, but I guess these are all pretty niche.

138:

I agree with the utility of those for a well-trained dog. In this case the long lead was well down the list of "and then..." problems. I'm pretty sure the owner knew where the dog was and was vaguely aware of motorists, but was busy with their phone or something else more important than watching for quiet vehicles.

I'm going to take a wild stab in the dark and guess that you're not the sort whose dog gets to play on the road unless it's the sort of road you'd let your kids play on (we still have those in Australia!).

Albeit round here there seem to be two main types of dog owners: where the leash is decorative and the dog will if necessary carry the owner-end back to the owner to say "you are supposed to hold this!" and ... oh boy. Small yappy things that are not trained at all, often with owners who think dog shit is someone else's problem.

139:

Did I say 15-month-old? Gah, she's a 15-WEEK-old terror, who modulates between heart-melting loveliness and sinking needle-sharp puppy teeth deep into whatever part of you is available.

140:

Here we have a leash law. If your PET (dog, cat, whatever) is not on your property or in a fenced area with permission, it must be on a leash. Periodically the neighborhood message board has someone post wanting to track down and report the driver who hit their dog (or cat) who was in the street not on a leash. Of course it's the fault of the driver to avoid animals that don't understand autos. Can't be the owner of the pet.

Growing up in a somewhat rural area, our dogs understood cars and would get out of their way if they saw one moving.

141:

whether monkey bars or trampolines were the leading cause of broken bones in children.

Interestingly we had monkey bars in grade school. Ages 5 to 12. And non of this soft material underfoot. We had packed dirt. With a few pebbles. Lets say 900+ kids per year in the school. I have no memory of anyone breaking a bone on the monkey bars. Lots of very dusty kids with various scratches. And lots of blisters on hands. But no broken bones.

When 15 I did get to have stitches in my chin as the phys ed instructor decided to use what he called a Swedish Towel Relay to give us workouts. within 2 or 3 weeks we had multiple cases of kids getting stitches. Then after a broken arm the STR was banned. I can't find a reference to it online just now.

142:

I watched this youtube fragment you've linked and I have very strong ambivalent feelings about this, I mean a TV show with Wehrmacht protagonists at the Eastern Front is an ethical minefield.

Made me look.

What mostly true to life such war based show isn't a mess of ethics? The object isn't to fight a good fight and go home as in sport then try again at the next meet if you loose. It is to win. Period.

On the eastern front you have an army driven by a government whose goal is to exterminate and enslave the populations in front of them and turn the land over to their own people. Defending against this is a government that treats individuals as expendable pawns to be used in stopping the enemy. Nothing nice about any of it.

All wars create such issues. The eastern front was just more brutal at times.

The WWII US war in the Pacific was similar in some ways. The Japanese would just not stop fighting. No matter how out numbered. So the US got into a war of extermination against the Japanese troops on the islands in the last year. Then there is what the Japanese did in Asia in the 30s. And to the soldiers and civilians conquered in the early 40s.

A few years ago speaking with a German friend of the family in who was born in the 60s. He basically said, "I'm proud to be a German but I don't think I'd like to live in the world that would be if we had won in WWII."

143:

Bechdel Test: wondering how the Raadchai do in Anne Leckie's "Ancillary Justice" et seq. fall??

Edge cases get a free pass, as the test is inapplicable in context. (It's not a law, it's just a strong suggestion.)

144:

Don't such conditions mostly appear in late teens or even later?

Introversion appears to be baked in from the start.

According to Karen Cain in Quiet, about a third of the population are introverts. She has references for that stat, but I don't have the book anymore so can't look them up.

When I was a child the school system seemed to regard introversion as a disorder. When I retired a few years ago that hadn't really changed. In fact, I think it is even harder to get quiet time alone at a modern high school, as the library has morphed from a quiet place for reading to a 'more welcoming' activity room. Introverts are expected to 'just ignore' other people. I hypothesize that getting really good at daydreaming, so much so that we're in a world of our own, is a coping strategy — if I'm forced to be in a noisy room full of other people, daydreaming is the only way to get some alone time!

My university lab partner has both an introvert and an extrovert among her children. She described it as how they recharge, not how they prefer to be. So her introvert loves playing with friends but needs alone time, while her extrovert likes listening to music alone but needs social time. As a parent she recognized that and gave her children enough autonomy that they could regulate themselves; something I wish more parents would do.

145:

Yes definitely trams (and not "light rail"). There are currently seven trams in the fleet with an eighth planned to join the fleet in October. The youngest tram originally went into service in 1934, the oldest in 1903. All are fully restored heritage vehicles. However, the tram used as a restaurant tram has been heavily modified.

146:

Don't such conditions mostly appear in late teens or even later?

Introversion appears to be baked in from the start.

Sorry. I was referring to the manic / depressive type things. Now layer that on top of an introvert. When in depressive mode, my distant memories are of someone barely functioning. At all. In the Manic parts, the introversion was swamped at times and could drive us all nuts.

And layer this on top of her first child being born with defective kidneys and only living 4 years.

But when you're growing up in the middle of it all, well life can be interesting at times. I and my brothers would never be guessed as brothers based on how we lead our lives. (Plus we don't look much alike.) We each came through growing up with very different survival skills.

147:

(get used to subtitles, the dubbing in English is usually godawful)

Of course for a series this means HOURS of commitment. You can't get up and get something from the fridge or make a sandwich or let the dog in or out or whatever. You MUST watch or get lost.

148:

Personally I think that the Bechdel test is balderdash.

The most important thing is how good you story is. If you write something like Robinson Crusoe, then it is very likely to have one sex narrative.

Or consider something like 源氏物語, Genji monogatari, which is a very strange, but fascinating writing by a female. Can you rate that story through a filter like the Bechdel test? Or consider The Tale of the Wyf of Bathe (apparently written by a male)?

No. I refuse to take the Bechdel test as a serious one.

Someone may write a wonderful story about a lonely male looking at the Instagram stories of beautiful females. Or a very vivid story about a lonely female, who is living in the basement of her parents, having a wonderful dream-life with male film-stars (well, that has already been done, as the one with the male in the basement looking at the instagram stories of females). But even better stories just wait to be written.

A good story is a good story. Even in the case that it annoys someone who wants to be conservative or woke. Even better if the story annoys 50% of people and fascinates the other 50% of people.

149:

Personally I think that the Bechdel test is balderdash.

So change it to a statistical distribution.

What percentage of media hits this mark. Male, female, or whatever orientation.

If 90% male dominated there is an issue.

Somewhat to the rest of your point. Who decide what is crap and to be ignored and "good" and to be counted. Which may not (or many times not) correspond to sales/viewers?

151:

When I was a child, it was regarded as a fault to be corrected, at best, and one to be punished, at worst. While that has improved, the former is still how 'disorders' are treated in the UK - do you see why the term actively encourages discrimination?

I have seen claims that that kind of treatment of people with such characteristics is one of the causes of the large number of suicides amoung young people.

152:

"So change it to a statistical distribution."

Ah, but what the statistical distribution tells you?

It does tell you much less than most people think.

"Who decide what is crap and to be ignored and "good" and to be counted. Which may not (or many times not) correspond to sales/viewers?"

If the stories are available to general public, then the readers/viewers practically decide what is good. But, however, there is a tendency of good stories that go on even if they are not the most liked in their time.

I do, personally, think that the stories that can survive time are good. Think about Walter Scott's Ivanhoe. The book is, in my opinion, quite boring. But still some young people and it and read it. There is something in the book that survives time. Even if I do not like it that much.

I believe that the best stories survive time and changing opinion. It may be that you change a she to a he or something, but the stories remain the same. In addition, I think that there is a limited number of basic stories that tempt our minds. (Evolutionary psychology and cognitive science and empirical studies of human attention and all that really, really boring stuff.)

153:

Happy anniversaries, Feorag and Charlie.

120: I recall my boss once complaining, during a trip to our Amsterdam office, "how come these things weigh 80 tonnes and run on rails, but they still manage to sneak up on you without you realizing?"

145: definitely trams (and not "light rail")

Many years ago I went to a talk given by the person in charge of non-heavy-rail transport planning in London. He mentioned when he had a meeting with locals about the new South London Light Rail system being planned at the time. After a while he could tell that the audience was definitely not convinced. Then a little old lady put her hand up:

"Young man, do you mean ... trams?" "Well, I suppose you could call them that." "Oo, they were lovely. They kept running all through the War."

And after that the project was renamed "Croydon Tramlink" and even now it's officially "London Trams".

Further more, the trams themselves are not numbered starting at 1, they are 2530 to 2565. The reason: because the old London trams were numbered up to 2529.

154:

It tells you quite a lot about the population (e.g. of films, films produced/directed by women etc.) See #17, #19, #20.

And, despite the claims by the ignorant, it is NOT true that you can't apply statistics to a single point. If a single film or book was extreme on a proper test (see #19), then it would be grounds for asking "why", at the very least.

155:

"So change it to a statistical distribution."

Ah, but what the statistical distribution tells you?

It does tell you much less than most people think.

You completely missed the point of the test -- which is to highlight the endemic sexism in an entire medium.

If you're going to deny that it exists, or that it is a problem, then you're a fool.

156:

"It tells you quite a lot about the population"

Yes, true. But, despite the claims by the ignorant, it is NOT true that you can apply single point statistics over time. Sorry for the pun.

We could go into the depths of human perception and related statistics. It is, for example, quite well-known which stimuli tempt our short-term attention and emotions.

Even in that case, the statistics behave in interesting ways. Surprisingly some empirical distributions are not normal. But that is a side-issue.

I still think that the most important feature of a good story is to be time resilient. People want to read/hear/watch good stories for a long time after they have been written/told/acted/etc. You may not like those stories, I may not like them, but if they stay alive for a long time, then they are good

157:

"If you're going to deny that it exists, or that it is a problem, then you're a fool."

That would not be the only proof that I am a fool. I have been shown to be a fool much more often than I would have liked.

I may have some language barrier here, but I am still going to make myself looking like a fool.

I do not claim that there is no sexism in the field. I do claim that the we should not judge the stories on measures like the Bechdel test.

I wonder that if we would like to measure that inherent sexism in a field like publishing, then we should measure the publication deals given to males and females? Or the amount of money flows? Or something like that.

Is the Bechdel test a relevant measure or not?

158:

I have seen claims that that kind of treatment of people with such characteristics is one of the causes of the large number of suicides amoung young people.

Introversion? Or relentless bullying of anyone deemed "different"?

One of the problems with social media among young people is the relentless 'need' to be connected 24/7, because not responding fast enough can be grounds for teenaged drama. I'm just now wondering if the kids who suffer the most stress from social media are also introverted, because the socially-imposed 'need' to be always connected means they don't really get alone time. (I would argue that being physically alone but continually interacting via a tiny screen isn't really being alone.)

Maybe someone has looked at this? A quick search didn't reveal anything but my search skills suck so that doesn't mean much. Or my speculation could be crap, of course.

159:

Is the Bechdel test a relevant measure or not?

It is a useful statistical measure for looking at systemic bias, I think. As a pass/fail test for quality (whatever that means), not so much.

In terms of works that survive for a long time, there is still systemic bias there. If you don't know of a work/author you can't read them, so works/authors that aren't promoted/preserved fade into obscurity. I'm currently reading The West by Naoíse Mac Sweeney, and one of her arguments is that we have written many people out of history to present a 'preferred view' — and then use the argument that they clearly weren't important or we would still talk about them. It's circular reasoning.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/books/2023/06/09/west-naoise-mac-sweeney-review/

160:

Introversion, Aspergers etc., and NOT bullying (which is another important factor, but not what the claims referred to). Yes, it was pressure to conform (including "accept help in overcoming a disorder"), but, no, it was not just social media - it was also from people in power, such as teachers and employers.

It's a long time ago now, so I can't remember the details, nor am I asserting they were correct, but they certainly fit with my experience and observations.

161:

"It is a useful statistical measure for looking at systemic bias, I think. As a pass/fail test for quality (whatever that means), not so much."

I am not sure that the Bechdel test is a working measure for looking at a systematic bias. It may be, but I find the thinking behind that measure to be at least ambiguous. In positive wording. In the case of well-defined metric there is a coherent theoretical structure behind the metric. In this case I cannot find such structure. Or I am just a moran who does not find it.

It may be a completely valid measure, but it does look like a kitchen-table invention. I would like to see a bit more theoretical dressing in the way of causality and time-series considerations.

On the other hand, I do no think the sexism does not exist. On the contrary, but I think that the measure is not valid.

162:

Oh, you mean like the dhal I make us a once or twice a month? And you're suggesting that some people don't ever clean the stove, etc?

163:

What drives me crazy are parking lots. When I was small, my mother taught me NEVER to run/walk in front/behind a moving vehicle. Ever.

And I'm not sure I would have gotten out of the young woman's way, and when she was on the ground, I would have have taken her picture (ear buds, phone) and asked if I should call the cops.

164:

$50k? Hell, Ellen would be happy if I got us a new fridge and dishwasher, and neither one would be top of the line, since that wouldn't fit in the freakin' tiny kitchen.

And tools? You mean like the wok and its tools that I'm sure I paid < $40 for, all together?

Oh, I know, the $300 I forked out for the actual bbq barrel (with the offset firebox) that I use once or twice a year....

165:

Oh, and all of that take-out/frozen... feel free to do a search on how ultra-processed foods are making us fat, and giving us serious medical issues.

166:

Things have changed. When I was in school, from kindergarden to 12th grade (except for the year or so that my high school was using shifts, due to overcrowding at the hight of the Baby Boom), the bell rang at 08:30, and you had to be in class by 08:45.

I understand some high schools have started class early, so that THE STUPID ARSEHOLE coaches who want to start team practice in the hottest part of the day....

167:

And then there's what us workin' folks did: by 5th grade, when I was enrolled on the other side of the park for a better school, my folks were off to work before I went to catch the (city) bus, then I got home, and they didn't get home until, oh, after 17:00.

And if someone says "oh, poor latchkey kid", I want to beat them silly, because they're obviously too well-off.

168:

Tram - and #145 - I see, so, actually rebuilt Brill trolleys. Philly switched from them to PCC cars in the mid-fifties, and I understand a lot were sold to South America for a second life.

Although in the nineties? I remember seeing a ton of them piled up under I-95, presumably waiting to go somewhere.

169:

Don't get any of you. I grew up in Philly. My kids NEVER played in the street (no, didn't live on small streets where they played stickball in the street). My critters do not ever go into the street, unless we're crossing.

And for a long time, the cats are indoor-only - too many scum that "speed up to run down small furry creatures."

170:

True. I don't remember anyone getting broken bones from monkey bars - but then, not much space to fall.

The one time I had a broken bone (greenstick fracture, arm) was after a movie my parents took me to (too young to leave alone, bored by the movie) I was running up and down steps on the street (leading up to front doors) and I fell.

171:

So, if you don't like that, considering it a very strong guideline.

Oh, and the reading public... you are, automatically, assuming it's published by a major publisher.

Your bias is showing, very strongly.

172:

I also note that you have no suggestions for an alternative test, or guideline. And saying that there are only a limited number of stories is reductio ad absurdum. Are the 1001 Nights "boy gets girl, threatens to kill girl, girls tells stories and gets boy"?

173:

I suggest that you drop this. Unlike you, I am a statistician (albeit rusty). I agree that it's a ghastly measure and worse test, but almost all of your remarks in #156 and some of those in #161 are irrelevant and/or erroneous. The measure/test I implied in #19 is a much more reasonable one, though not without its flaws.

And, yes, it IS perfectly reasonable to measure and test literary works using such criteria; amongst other things, it gives a fairly good indication of the prejudices of an era (or author). You might be surprised at how many academic disciplines do precisely that sort of analysis.

174:

I think I remember kids getting broken bones in the play ground (both after school and at the community park). I also seem to remember it was two boys that were ones always getting them. Neither was very bright...

I must admit the playground equipment was not particularly safe, especially the way we treated it as kids. I remember, for instance, walking on top of the monkey bars, waxing the two story slide we had for extra speed, and spinning the swinging gate with a friend and seeing how far they would fly off, etc., etc. Ah, fun times :)

175:

I'm not sure I would have gotten out of the young woman's way

I have osteoporosis. I've broken bones falling over. There's no way I'm sacrificing my health to make a point, for what would likely be a $4 ticket and no other charges (because no fatality).

176:

Re: ' ... forked out for the actual bbq barrel (with the offset firebox) that I use once or twice a year....'

Yeah - use once or twice a year if you're lucky.

BTW, the $50K is not an exaggeration for a kitchen remodel - medium size kitchen with high but not highest-end quality appliances, cabinets and materials.

By tools I meant stuff like an espresso/latte machine, air fryer, sous vide, etc. which add up pretty fast.

177:

Re: 'You might be surprised at how many academic disciplines do precisely that sort of analysis.'

This type of study was done decades ago on TV shows and consumer advertising.

As for the stats approach - doing a basic headcount is usually the first step along with some very basic demographic and usage/viewership data. As you compile more results and discover more variables associated with your key variable you can start trying out different stats approaches. Chicken-and-egg. At the same time, because human society keeps changing, some of the stats correlation results/tests will look 'wrong' at some point.

I'm aware of the 'correlation is not causation' caution, but correlation is a damned better starting place than some arbitrary (non-correlated) variable.

178:

Re: [trucks full of harddisks]

I was involved in /precisely/ that exercise before one of the Brexit deadlines: We managed to copy that data over some borrowed dark fibers almost as fast as the trucks moved the kit out of UK.

Almost all data transfers involve one or more serializations, reading and writing to harddisks is one of the minor ones, because it can be done in parallel.

179:

BBQ barrel - https://www.acehardware.com/departments/outdoor-living/grills-and-smokers/charcoal-grills/8511776?x429=true&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIpJDP3_Tm_wIVSUdyCh3yEwxqEAQYASABEgK5DfD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

Espresso machine? My DeLonghi cost < $100, and has a pump. I'm starting to see this conversation as looking like one on a mailing list I'm on. I asked about a gas stove (before I bought one), and they were talking $6k. I bought one from Home Despot for under $700. Your idea of "tools" and mine appear to be an order of magnitude different.

180:

I would like to propose a corollary to the Bechdel test, call it 'Rocketpj's Bechdel Perception Test'.

'Are you upset by what the Bechdel Test implies about a particular piece of media, enough to challenge the validity of the test as a thought exercise, you might be a part of the problem.'

It is not nor was it ever meant to be a statistical test. However, outside of a range of outliers that are not the point, it can be a useful insight into a massive blind spot in much current and past media production.

It's a Pass/Fail where 'Fail' does not necessarily mean 'Bad'. All 'Fail' does is cause us to ask 'why'. Sometimes there is a good reason (it's a story told in the first person by a male). Sometimes there is no good reason (it didn't occur to the writer that women might exist as humans separate from male notions).

That's it. It is not a target, shoehorning a scene into something to pass the test doesn't automatically make a book or story 'good'. Not having three dimensional female characters might, in many cases, make a story 'bad'.

181:

It makes me twitch a bit because it so very often gets cited by people who are taking it as an absolute, and use it to disparage the works of (mostly old-time) authors without taking any account of the "why". This is particularly annoying when at the same time they fail to notice that the author likes to slip in subtle but sharp feminist barbs when the opportunity arises, which come over even more strongly when you consider the time they were written in (for example).

I reckon it gives the same sort of partially/contingently valid result that you get from trying to test the pH of something using universal indicator paper. A lot of the time it works OK. But sometimes you get chromatography effects in the paper which separate the indicator dyes so you can't tell what's what. And some somethings are themselves strongly coloured and swamp the indication. Or some of them bleach the paper. Or some of them set fire to it.

182:

Books were how I coped with too much time with too many people; with a good book I could totally block out the environment. In one memorable case I was reading so intently in a room full of people I missed a small earthquake. I can honestly say I am one of very few people I've heard about who had absolutely no issues at all during lock down.

183:

I read a lot as a child, and it can be a form of escape. Doesn't work so well when one's female relatives have the attitude that "you're not doing anything, you're reading" and "it's rude to ignore someone when they talk to you". :-(

184:

I recall causing consternation then considerable upset by saying to someone "I was enjoying being out in the garden reading my book by myself. Please go away" to one particularly persistent socialite. I thought that was exceptionally polite of me.

But there's a certain type of person who regards anyone who is by themselves as being available to entertain them. Indeed, obliged to entertain them. They can get quite unpleasant when refused. And will obviously tell everyone they can find how horrible you are for not obliging.

185:

I'm a long time lurker (and occasional) poster, here, and have long agreed with you about this subject. I was a child in the 1950's living in what then was a small rural village in mid West Sussex. Everybody knew everybody, and being 'Shy' and 'Bookish' I had a very difficult time especially at school. Even at home I was always being told off for 'having my nose stuck in a book'. I was made to feel that I was different and wrong, out of step, no interest in sports, and no ability to make small talk and to be a part of the group. There was a constant pressure to 'fit in' and be like the rest of the kids, both at home and at school, but I was never able to. It was only much latter in life when I was receiving treatment for repeated extreme depressive episodes that I came to realise that rather than being, as I had been made to feel most of my life, of below average intelligence and 'slow' as it was put, I was in fact in some areas at least well above average. In some IQ tests the psychiatrist I was seeing suggested I take I could easily score over 140, (yes, I know not to put too much into IQ tests) and with it the realisation that I probably had Asperger's, although I have never been tested, but I can tick most of the boxes. This despite having 'failed' my 11+ and leaving secondary school at 15 to go and work for the local engineering company. I am still happiest on my own and when I am able still love to be out walking in the countryside indulging my love of birds and other wildlife, and photography. I still read enormously and books are my other escape from the pressures of being around other people. At 74 I have come to accept and to be comfortable with myself, but it has been a long hard journey and many of the scars from my childhood are not too far below the surface.

186:

"Books" - yes, well ... me too. Though I did have the advantage that my father, particularly, encouraged or Passively-encouraged me to go on with reading.

187:

I suspect we are getting a little off topic. But no, these trams re are not your ex Philly trolleys.

Of the seven trams currently in use in Christchurch, only two are Brill built products. They were ordered from J G Brill & Co of Pennsylvania, shipped to Ne4w Zealand as CKD/"flatpack" kits and erected locally in New Zealand for where they went into service in 1903 & 1921. They were then taken out of service in 1950s and all mechanical and electrical gear scrapped and the bodies sold off for use as "sheds" etc. Then many years later, subsequently restored back into running order.

The other five trams are Australasian designed and built products. But these five also all went through equivalent histories to the two Brill built units where post tramway use the bodies were sold off and used for other purposes before being restored and returned to running order.

And all seven trams have retained their original fleet numbers into restoration from the local fleets where they were originally in service. And while not completely quiet they do apparently "sneak up" on people who appear to be oblivious to their surroundings. Tho', very slightly on topic, about 5 of the 25 drivers are female.

188:

Yup, that sounds like a very common experience around these parts!

189:

For myself, reading shuts out an often unpleasant world nearly as well as recreational pharmaceuticals, with the added benefit of being able to deal with others, as well as I ever do, as soon as I close the book. No bothersome wait for ethanol to metabolize or other things to work their way through my system. Non-readers can be quite unpleasant and impatient.

190:

And you're suggesting that some people don't ever clean the stove, etc?

You seem to be missing the point of several of us here. We're talking about the oils that wind up in the air as people cook that gradually permeate the paint, walls surfaces, wood cabinets, etc... And if the kitchen is not closed off the surfaces of the home in other rooms. Furniture (especially fabrics), carpets, and for the most fun, electronics and such. It happens. It is real. And happens slowly over time. And if done by a cooking culture not of your own, can be very noticeable. We ran into this several times when looking at houses. The realtor would walk us through such houses (to avoid legal issues) but we never stayed long.

Around here (RDU area of NC) we have a fairly large influx of first gen immigrants and also PHD folks from other countries here for a few years. From all over the world. (Costco on a Friday is a great place to heard 20 or more languages being spoken.)

191:

There are two reasons to object to its use, of which that is one. My main one is that it is using statistics as a drunken man uses a lampost (*), and should be replaced by a potentially unbiassed test. That would be trivial to do.

But you are correct that, in addition to that, it is also abused. Not merely are there 'edge cases', expecting a drama to portray a sex balance that simply isn't there in the context in which it is set is a political position. That applies to most societies today, and essentially all historical contexts.

(*) Support rather than illumination.

192:

And while in modern industrial "first" world kitchens this is very much reduced it is still a bit of an issue. Open kitchen / floor plans may be regretted 30 years on.

Back to somewhat the subject of this post. Keeping a kitchen closed off from the rest of the house or even as a detached structure tended to keep females segregated as they tended to be the cooks. This is going away a lot (but slowly) in modern industrial "first" world countries. Somewhat. Maybe.

And if the "women folk" are invisible in the home for hours per day, then the literature / media will tend to leave them out of major plot points as in the life of the audience they are also missing for hours per day.

193:

Just out of curiosity, what kind of stereotypes do women use when they're writing FOR women?

out of curiosity i asked chatgpt this and it frumped at me about the importance of avoiding stereotypes

sigh

194:

How exactly did Friedman get "flat" part "totally wrong"?

matt taibbi's review of its predecessor, "the world is flat" is still a favorite of mine: https://delong.typepad.com/egregious_moderation/2009/01/matt-taibbi-flathead-the-peculiar-genius-of-thomas-l-friedman.html

195:

Could have been worse. My late wife had an early growth spurt (so early teen years was taller than a lot of the boys)... and grew up in a town (pop about 2000) the better part of an hour south of San Antonio. Culture? Ummm... and was stuck with the same classmates all through school (till she dropped out and finished her high school at the local community college).

196:

Or maybe that I cook with far less oil than the folks you're speaking of.

197:

Thank you. I had to read bits to my partner. I haven't laughed this hard since, oh, the latest really good Marinna Hyde column in the Guardian.

198:

adrian smith @ 194:

How exactly did Friedman get "flat" part "totally wrong"?

matt taibbi's review of its predecessor, "the world is flat" is still a favorite of mine: https://delong.typepad.com/egregious_moderation/2009/01/matt-taibbi-flathead-the-peculiar-genius-of-thomas-l-friedman.html

Too bad Taibbi turned out to be as much a goof ("useful idiot") as Friedman.

Taibbi had a moment of brilliance with "vampire squid", but neither one of them could pass the Bechdel test.

199:

It used to be an issue in the UK, back in the days when fried breakfasts, other fried food and deep frying in animal fat were common, but is much less of one now. Cooker hoods and extractor fans have something to do with it, too, but I suspect the main cause is the move to vegetable oil.

200:

I really don't use much oil in cooking. I deep fry less than half a dozen times a year, and the rest... mostly, it's about 2-4 tbsp to lubricate the pan, and stir fry. Even friend matzah is just under 2 tbsp of butter.

201:

The Neal Stephenson one only counts for people who haven't read the preceding part of the book first. In context it makes perfect sense for it to be like that.

202:

Too bad Taibbi turned out to be as much a goof ("useful idiot") as Friedman.

is this about the twitter files? i appreciate the desire to draw a veil o'discretion over the implications of anything the first failson may or may not have been up to, but couldn't the democrats find someone more suitable and less cognitively-challenged-looking among their vast panoply of sprightly governors? they could probably even try rehabilitating anthony weiner

Taibbi had a moment of brilliance with "vampire squid"

yeah, turns out for a bank founded by jews that may have been a little on the anti-semitic side, bit like jk rowlings' goblins

but neither one of them could pass the Bechdel test.

well, i hope friedman hasn't turned his hand to fiction at least, that could be a horrorshow

203:

We use more, but never deep fry.

204:

Deep fry is only for a) fries (like steak fries - we cut our own potatoes, not frozen), and b) breaded (i.e., corn starch) meat for Chinese.

205:

I deep fry less than half a dozen times a year

Well I think we might have deep fried something once in the last two-dozen years, purely as a novelty, and that's an interesting inverse I suppose. I suspect similar is true for most people here -- in this blog, I mean. Not sure I'd say anything about society at large here in Oz or elsewhere. There's a still-popular product on supermarket shelves called Supafry, which seems to be a mix of tallow and lard, but I think the proportion and what other fats are in there fall into the category of "What you want named meat?".

206:

Fryhing
Shallow or minimal, all the time
Even when it's Schnitzel, or perhaps, especially when it's schnitzel ...
TURN IT OVER Sausages? - Roll them over ;πx2 at a time ...
No problem

207:

It’s likely that you just don’t notice the buildup. Cooking bacon is a good example of generating steam + vapourised fats in western society. Most of it goes in the range hood, but some will go in the air, especially with how much water is in the meat nowadays. Even in a well cleaned kitchen, it will condense and accumulate on the high surfaces - look at the top of light fittings, or above the range hood, or on the high painted surfaces. If you have high cupboards, wipe the inside and outside and look at the difference.

It’s the same as visiting a house owned by smokers, or a little old lady, or a student flat - it will smell of “them”, and they don’t even notice it, because to them that smell is normal - “home”.

208:

Or in my case, cats. (And no, it's not the litter box, that has a different smell and it's cleaned regularly.)

209:

I had two things going for me -- my mother liked books and also liked when she didn't have to take responsibility for me so I could read as much as I could. Not as much as I wanted but still.

210:

One of the advantages of moving so much was not knowing many people and thus not being required to spend time with them which would be better used for reading. As I get older I am much less likely to accept any invitation to socialise because I just don't want to most of the time and now have the liberty to refuse.

211:

I do better with a non-zero amount of socialising, but from experience living with a significant other is often ample. Otherwise I tend to live in my own world to an excessive degree. Right now I'm putting off a couple of things purely because they involve talking to people... I'm slowly talking myself round to the idea that I'll enjoy them once I start doing them, but right now I have a cold as a result of going out and being social last weekend so that's not really helping.

OTOH I just read "Railsea" by China Miéville, and I'm enjoying "A half-built garden" by Ruthanna Emrys quite a lot. Complete with alien love story! But mostly because it's an optimistic take on a climate change survival scenario. Well, except for the aliens who are not optimistic about that at all.

212:

I'm waiting for Heavenly Tyrant, the sequel to Iron Widow by Xinran Zhao. Partly because she's a new Canadian author, but mostly because it's a anime-inspired retelling of Chinese history that's pure escapist fun.

Also, while sex is part of the plot (although not explicit, this being marketed as a young adult novel) let's just say that who the character's love would lead to this being a banned book in red state America…

I've got some Laundry novels on the 'bought but not read' pile, but the daily news gives me enough horror that I'm looking for something more escapist right now.

Anyway, Iron Widow is a cracking good read. "Pacific Rim meets The Handmaid's Tale in this blend of Chinese history and mecha science fiction for YA readers." according to the publisher's blurb.

https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/series/IW1/iron-widow

213:

Iron Widow is fantastic and I second the recommendation. I mostly commented because I wanted to note:

(1) that their name is Xiran Jay Zhao (not Xinran) and

(2) they specifically ask that people use neutral pronouns for them.

(Source: https://xiranjayzhao.com/index.php/press-kit/)

214:

I've finally got around to reading that book about roads by Carlton Reid, and it's holding my interest a lot better than most non-fiction these days. It's my second pause in the middle of reading the Vienna Blood novel series, something I started since my wife and I binge-watched the TV series based on it. The first pause was for Season of Skulls.

Oddly I can't collect unread Laundry books, they generally seem to end up read within a couple of days of the release date. This time around I started a day or two late because I didn't notice it was in my Kindle app till I finished one of the Tallis books.

215:

I thought I posted a comment on the post "Go away, Muse, you're drunk (again)"

A few hours ago. It seems to have vanished. Did a break a rule? Or was I dreaming.

216:

matt taibbi's review of its predecessor, "the world is flat" is still a favorite of mine...

Taibbi has much to say about Friedman's writing, I discover: "Thomas Friedman does not get these things right even by accident. It's not that he occasionally screws up and fails to make his metaphors and images agree. It's that he always screws it up. He has an anti-ear, and it's absolutely infallible; he is a Joyce or a Flaubert in reverse, incapable of rendering even the smallest details without genius."

I'm reminded of David Langford's description of Jim Theis, the author of The Eye of Argon, as "a malaprop genius, a McGonagall of prose with an eerie gift for choosing the wrong word and then misapplying it."

Ouch. And these are about things that got out into the world; we should dread imagining what lurks at the bottom of the slush pile.

217:

Or was I dreaming.

Either this or I'm an idiot. Sorry.

218:
  • Brain fart. Xinran is the name of a different author who I read more recently and I got confused.

  • Noted. Their bio blurb on the Penguin website doesn't mention that, although it does use gender-neutral pronouns which didn't really register in my brain.

  • 219:

    Why not both? :-)

    220:

    I'll not argue against your point. The Venn diagram has large overlaps at times.

    221:

    Mods: Please remove, if this is too far out of from the topic or otherwise unacceptable.

    One of my hobbies is studying formal vs. real power-structures, sort of "Observational World-Building" and that triggers a couple of neurons when we are talking about representation of women.

    Because it is so well documented, USA is a very obvious subject for study, and being Danish but having lived in USA, I feel I have both sufficient understanding and detachment to make the following observations:

    USA's constitution was designed to balance the three branches of government, so that any one can stop any other one, but any two can overrule the third.

    That has generally worked out, except when it came to representation of the non-people at the time of the constitution: Women, slaves, non-whites in general etc.

    To break into the white man's world, the excluded people literally had to get a toehold in two out of three branches of government, and as history has shown, that's exactly as hard as the framers of the constitution intended.

    But changing the constitution is even harder.

    At some point somebody figured out that provides for a hack: Make the Supreme Court rule what the constitution means, while the other two branches are unable to muster what it takes to change it to explicitly say the opposite.

    To the surprise of many foreigners, "The Equal Rights Amendment" has never been ratified in USA. The 19th amendment only gives the women the right to vote, which in theory gives them the right to gain toeholds etc. etc.

    But that women and men actually are treated (almost) equally, at least as far as the law goes, is only because rulings from the supreme court, perpetrated under the "hack" mentioned above.

    Likewise the right to abortion, and the racism-work-around "Affirmative Action".

    Until the rise of the US Taliban, it seems a majority of US voters found these decisions correct or at least acceptable, and presumably therefore nobody bothered to muster the necessary political action, to actually enshrine those rights into the constitution.

    But what the SCOTUS grants, the SCOTUS can take away, and they have.

    If one reads the two rulings where the SCOTUS reverses itself, first on abortion, and yesterday on Affirmative-Action, they do say rather clearly, that they think it is high time SCOTUS exits the law-/making/ business, and that if people think these rights should exist, they should go change the constitution to clearly say so.

    That is strictly speaking not wrong: The US constitution does not authorize the SCOTUS to invent human rights out of pocket lint.

    (It would sound so much more convincing, if the ruling had come from a majority of women and colored persons, wouldn't it ? But I have no doubt that this is why we saw Thomas, who until recently was the only non-white judge on SCOTUS vote to end Affirmative-Action: He /is/ principled when it comes to "the original constitution" - that is very much his thing.)

    Where am I going with this ?

    As fundamentally ethically wrong as it is, gaining representation in exclusionary power structures will always be a very slow process, because if one follows the rules, the rules are "osmosis - only slower".

    Absent aliens which impose fairness from above, we are literally taking about a process which takes generations, because the old fossils have to die out and be replaced by somebody, who through exposure to it, has a more positive view of inclusion.

    From a observational world-building perspective, the present setback for the so-called "liberals" in USA is because they tried a "hack" instead of doing the hard work of constitutional amendments, and even more so, for failing to do the less hard work, while that hack, surprisingly and temporarily did work.

    And to bring this back to the original topic: It doesn't matter (much) how many good manuscripts with good and competent representation of women writers produce, while the top of the food-chain is occupied by a single Weinstein with a casting-couch.

    And therefore I expect that getting to a point where the Bechdel Test does not fail by default, is unlikely to happen in our lifetimes.

    The alternative to exclusionary osmosis is of course a revolution.

    And between micro-plastics, militarized police, forever-chemicals, climate-change, wealth- and other inequalities, one seem long overdue.

    Ironically, there's a great manuscript for such a revolution, a manuscript which has passed the Bechdel Test for 2434 years & counting:

    Aristophanes "Lysistrate"

    222:

    Until the rise of the US Taliban, it seems a majority of US voters found these decisions correct or at least acceptable,

    Actually surveys show this has not changed. The majority seems to be against these new rulers. (More below.)

    Absent aliens which impose fairness from above, we are literally taking about a process which takes generations, because the old fossils have to die out and be replaced by somebody, who through exposure to it, has a more positive view of inclusion.

    Turns out even the strong R voters who are under 40 are against my generations' rules. They are just afraid of what would happen if they vote D. Because D is evil. So (and this is happening in my state) the old fart R fossils are working as hard as possible to make sure their ideas continue to rule even if the majority (and many of THEIR voters) go hard against them. Forget Gerrymandering. They want to make it hard for ANY D to vote. And for a new less hard right R to change things even after they die. Much less vote.

    223:

    Please note: as of several years ago, VA, when it had the Dems in control, ratified the ERA. Now it's up to Congress to pass a bill that eliminates the original (and never done before) seven year limit on ratification.

    224:

    adrian smith @ 202:

    Too bad Taibbi turned out to be as much a goof ("useful idiot") as Friedman.

    is this about the twitter files? i appreciate the desire to draw a veil o'discretion over the implications of anything the first failson may or may not have been up to, but couldn't the democrats find someone more suitable and less cognitively-challenged-looking among their vast panoply of sprightly governors? they could probably even try rehabilitating anthony weiner

    That's just the latest episode. There's all his other inappropriate behaviors prior to the twitter files. Particularly his braggadocio about exploiting under-age women during his period working for "The eXile" & his subsequent run in with the ME TOO movement, which seems to have brought out a latent misogynist fascism in his political writing. He now denies he ever exploited under-age women in Moscow, but for me, that brings up another question:

    Was he lying then or is he lying now? ... I actually believe he was probably lying both times.

    And I strongly disagree with his pro-Russian, pro-Authoritarian, pro-Trump views and denialism regarding the reich-wing's attempts to steal the 2016 and 2020 elections.

    Taibbi had a moment of brilliance with "vampire squid"

    yeah, turns out for a bank founded by jews that may have been a little on the anti-semitic side, bit like jk rowlings' goblins

    Founded in 1869 by a Jewish immigrant (apparently fleeing pogroms following the 1848-1849 German Revolutions), but the "modern" corporation is fully assimilated into the Wall Street Financial System ... as All-American as Apple Pie!

    I think it's anti-Semitic to continually note the ethnicity of the founders, especially more than 100 years AFTER he passed on.

    225:

    Both potentially sexist & racist &discriminatory & a slippery slope to fascism - The "Roberts' US Court decision on supposed "Free Speech.
    Deeply disturbing.
    US readers? Thoughts & comments.

    226:

    Just the other day, they decided that a felon, once out of jail, could not be deprived of their Second Amendment rights of firearm ownership.

    They don't seem to think past what they'd doing now, since I'm going to be that a felon who has served their time, but still can't vote, is going to sue, and cite this case.

    227:

    I think it's anti-Semitic to continually note the ethnicity of the founders,

    Nah, it's the same as any criticism of Clarence Thomas is necessarily racists and can only ever be based in racism, and any criticism of Amy Coney Barrett can only be sexist. Everyone just has to accept that it's difficult to make legitimate criticisms of 3/4 of the population and move on. (which 3/4 changes based on unchangeable characteristics of each person, obviously. OGH is Jewish, so can express concern about the treatment of Palestinians. I'm middle-class, so can express concern about wealth inequality, and so on).

    It's all about making activism decorative rather than effective. Instead of working to change the system a whole lot of people have been side-tracked into changing the way the system talks.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/29/antiracism-diversity-training-liberal-antiracists-vocabulary-direct-action

    228:

    Nah, I can criticize Barrett, on the basis of her being a religious wacko (her classmates were yelling that when she was before the Senate), and therefore will put the Bible before the Constitution.

    229:

    Re: '... good manuscripts with good and competent representation of women writers produce,'

    Lysistrata seems to be a one-of-a-kind plot unlike other ancient plays that seem to have been tweaked to adapt to modern, local customs.

    And since you mentioned plays, how about Mary Poppins - the nanny who interprets instructions into what works for her. And Mrs Banks, a banker's wife campaigning for women's votes. I know Charlie doesn't like it, but heh! the Disney version is probably known by half the human population by now.

    Off topic .... Farage leaving England?

    Just read a BBC headline saying that Farage, the keenest of the BrExiteers, has had some banking issues and feels that he may have to leave England. What is going on? I'm guessing that bank accounts don't get arbitrarily frozen or examined in detail in the UK. Is/was he one of BoJo's best pals or get a large contribution from UK's successful rag owner (currently being sued by a royal) or some foreign unfriendly polity?

    230:

    Guessing that he's not in the inner circle any more. He's played the game of mates and lost, so now he has to promised to be a good little boy or he'll get spanked. One can but hope that BoJo goes the same way, and that there's enough residual justice in the UK legal system that they get convicted and jailed. There's no shortage of crimes they've admitted to.

    231:

    Perhaps Greg could ask Herself if there's any easy way for us proles to check if the chatter on Reddit alleging that Farage has a CIFAS (Credit Industry Fraud Avoidance System) marker against his name are true?

    One hesitates to speculate but that kind of thing is what you might expect to see if someone was under suspicion of laundering Russian money in the course of a political campaign ...

    232:

    Greg @ 225: Both potentially sexist & racist &discriminatory & a slippery slope to fascism - The "Roberts' US Court decision on supposed "Free Speech.

    The article greatly exaggerates the impact of this judgement.

    Today on TAP: If a Colorado web designer can refuse to serve a same-sex couple, why can’t a business owner discriminate against Blacks, Muslims, and Jews?

    Because the core of the case was about the business owner's right to free speech versus the clients right not to be discriminated against. Most business transactions don't involve speech, so aren't affected.

    (I'm going to ignore the recent discovery that this appears to be a manufactured controversy, because while its important in this case its a side issue to the actual argument)

    Free speech includes the right not to speak; to publish or not publish anything according to your conscience. The US government cannot make you sign a loyalty oath, or statement of support for any cause, or anything else. If a government official says "you must say this or we will prosecute you" you can tell them to get lost. This is a constitutional right.

    On the other hand under Federal law US citizens have a right not to be discriminated against on a list of protected characteristics, one of which is sexuality. So if a gay or trans person or couple want to stay in a hotel, they have to be given a room on the same basis as straight customers. The hotel is allowed to discriminate on other grounds, such as poor dress, no credit card etc, but not on sexuality (proving lack of discrimination is mostly a matter of having a written policy and showing that you enforce it evenhandedly).

    However some businesses involve selling expressive speech. Anything that involves creative or artistic input means that the business is publicly speaking about things for money, as is the individual person who does the creative work. This creates a conflict: on the one hand a creator has the right to decline to say things they don't agree with, but on the other hand the law requires them to accept orders to speak from those protected classes.

    Of course you could just decline to be a paid creative person of any kind, but that's a pretty big deal when creativity is something you have invested time, effort and pride in, and you make your living from it. It might well have a significant chilling effect, and that is something that the courts rightly take notice of.

    Also in the US its relevant that the 1st Amendment (free speech) takes precedence over anti-discrimination laws passed by Congress. To the extent that a federal law damages the right to free speech, that law is unconstitutional.

    There are a few limited exceptions to this; if the government can show that it has an overriding need to limit speech, that its limits are narrowly tailored to the need, and there is no better alternative, then it can get a pass. That's how laws prohibiting CSAM pass muster. But its a very high bar.

    So SCOTUS in this case has decided that the constitutional right to free speech trumps the legal right not to be discriminated against. Other similar cases are the UK Gay Cake case which reached a similar conclusion, and the Masterpiece Cake case also in Colorado, which was decided on the narrow ground that the Commission hadn't been neutral about the religious aspect.

    However this only affects businesses which do something expressive, such as composing words or drawings or photographs. It doesn't affect non-expressive businesses. A hotel cannot reject gay, black or muslim customers, nor can a bar refuse to serve them. So much of the catastrophising in the linked article is unjustified.

    Also, as a customer for a creative product, I'd want to employ someone who enjoys and supports what I want created, rather than someone who is dragooned into it. So as a practical matter of the impact on gay couples, or other protected classes, I don't see that this is actually all that big. Running up against bigotry is never nice, of course (and I'm in the privileged position of not having that happen to me), but I suspect it would be better to move on and find someone who wants your business than to force a creator to produce something just to make you go away.

    233:

    Re: 'Perhaps Greg could ask Herself ...'

    Yep - other news/data sources are needed to confirm/deny the underlying reasons given some recent press about the BBC's senior management's pro BrExit/Tory bias.

    Back to the original topic ...

    Just saw a tweet (from Melissa Stewart) that 75% of kids like non-fiction as much as or more than fiction but that only about 12% of signed kidlit book deals are for non-fiction.

    Most developed and developing countries are supposedly trying to get their kids more interested in STEM in order to safeguard the development of their own countries' economies. (Sorta ditto for human rights/DEI). Unless there's a huge shortage of non-fiction kidlit authors/illustrators, this publishing stat doesn't make sense: huge demand alongside persistent inadequate supply. Does help explain the persistence of antiquated and harmful stereotypes and -isms.

    234:

    but for me, that brings up another question: Was he lying then or is he lying now? ... I actually believe he was probably lying both times.

    gonzo journalism isn't for everyone

    should probably give this a rest until 300+ tho

    235:

    the BBC's senior management's pro BrExit/Tory bias

    i think they just reflexively tongue tory hinie out of fear of what some in the government might like to do to them

    236:

    “ Yes, I agree that some 'affirmative action' is still necessary, though it isn't the 1950s any more, ”

    The test came from a 4-panel cartoon in the late 80s, where a character said she didn’t go to Hollywood movies unless there were 1) two female characters who 2) had a conversation about 3) something other than a man.

    The year it was written there were zero big budget movies in English that passed that test. The same was true the next year.

    So “it’s not the 1950s anymore” is a little misplaced - it was about the extreme sexism of 1980s media portrayals of women.

    And it should really be taken holistically about a body of works: the point is not whether any one work passes this test, but how many do and how many would fail a comparable test about having at least two male characters that have a conversation about something other than a woman.

    237:

    Re: '... that have a conversation about something other than a woman'

    Maybe 1% would fail? There are tons of books with male characters talking about everything except women - women simply do not exist in some authors' universes. Includes SF classics by Jules Verne who supposedly admired Victor Hugo whose works (IMO) do pass the Bechdel Test.

    For the nitpickers - okay, not every VH story has two women having an extended conversation face-to-face BUT every story does describe in considerable depth the background, life experience and character of more than one key female character along with the various issues they and other marginalized members of that society faced.

    238:

    So “it’s not the 1950s anymore” is a little misplaced - it was about the extreme sexism of 1980s media portrayals of women.

    I don't know your age. I was born in 1954. So the 50s is not all that clear to me. But the 60s and 70s were. And compared to them the 80s were amazingly better in the sexism areas. But still a long long way from being perfect.

    239:

    No, it isn't. It was a remark about when affirmative action (I.e. discriminating against men) was needed. For whether the film's of the year in which the remark was made were sexist, read the rest of my comment about that being a biassed test. They may have been, but that test does NOT demonstrate it.

    242:

    if he had a black mark under cifas i think he could just ask them

    If he truly didn't know that would be a logical thing to do.

    If he does know why his accounts are being closed, and it is indeed something CIFAS knows about, then loudly claiming he has no idea why while simultaneously not making real efforts to find out brings to mind the actions of a certain political figure who is rather fond of golfing…

    243:

    OT, but I thought y'all might be interested in this if you're gonna' be traveling any time soon.

    I rented a 2023 Polestar 2 from Hertz [YouTube] (Polestar is a Volvo subsidiary?)

    Renting an electric car ... 🙃

    244:

    David L @ 238:

    So “it’s not the 1950s anymore” is a little misplaced - it was about the extreme sexism of 1980s media portrayals of women.

    I don't know your age. I was born in 1954. So the 50s is not all that clear to me. But the 60s and 70s were. And compared to them the 80s were amazingly better in the sexism areas. But still a long long way from being perfect.

    1950s TV attitudes (in the U.S.) towards women are exemplified in shows like Father Knows Best and Leave It To Beaver.

    245:

    Re: '... brings to mind the actions of a certain political figure who is rather fond of golfing…'

    Agree.

    I saw some article that he was on Murdoch's payroll (Faux News) while a sitting member in the UK gov't. If true, then such behavior should be considered a serious conflict of interest if not a criminal offense (bribery).

    246:

    such behavior should be considered a serious conflict of interest

    Come now, we have it on good authority (the US Supreme Court) that as long as a public figure is not being explicitly paid in exchange for favours there is no conflict of interest.

    (Yes, sarcasm.)

    247:

    pretty sure farage has never been a member of the uk government, though he was a euro mp for ages (because pr)

    248:

    I suspect Australia provides a useful reminder to everyone else of the benefits/dangers of having an independent body charged with prosecuting corruption at the top of government. NSW's ICAC has a collection of former premiers to its name as well as a whole pile of people further down the chain, as do some other states (IBAC in Victoria for example). Federal parliament has been slowly shamed into introducing a similar body.

    Luckily for corrupt politicians they have a lot of allies in the media and generous funding for campaigns against such things is readily available.

    Luckily for the rest of us (at least in Australia) the more damage ICAC et al do to criminals the more voters are inclined to support politicians who want to introduce such things. Hence the current federal government being inclined that way, and many senators have been elected on platforms demanding one.

    we do see the Trump Defence used here a lot though. Gladys Berejiklian still denies that using state funds to support her boyfriend's electoral prospects was corrupt despite ICAC's comprehensive findings to the contrary. But at least she hasn't tried the Pell Play "I'm too incompetent and stupid to be able to do my job, let alone behave corruptly while doing my job".

    249:

    Well it seems that having given up on preventing having one in the first place, the conservative opposition have teamed up with the government to ensure there are no public hearings. Ho hum. At least NACC will have the power to initiate its own proceedings without requiring a formal invitation to do so, which is the provision that is usually used to cripple other statutory commissions, like the state-based privacy commissions or human rights commissions.

    We'll have to see how it goes, there's an obvious difference of opinion between the mainstream and the conservative side about what actually constitutes corrupt conduct. Generally it always looks a lot like "if we do it, it isn't corrupt", but there's something that at least apparently seems to be sincere in there.

    250:

    Yes, Polestar's are sort of "Special Volvos", Volvo is a subsidiary of Geely, who bought them* when Ford was trying to evade the worst of the economic "Charlie Foxtrot" in 2008.

    251:

    the provision that is usually used to cripple other statutory commissions

    Defunding is a popular one. Not just the ABC and whatever the CSIRO has been turned into (part of the department for turning ecology into money?), but the "junior secretary for excusing refusal to comply with the official information act" and other nominally powerful offices that have been stripped of so much funding that they can barely cover the cost of one person and an office.

    And then there are the various "advisory only" bodies, like the High Court and so on, where they can (and often do) say whatever they like and the government carefully files their remarks before doing whatever the hell it want.

    Which makes the controversy over "The Voice" (first nations) seem greatly overblown. Yes, let's have another purely advisory body with no budget or statutory powers, that'll really shake things up.

    252:

    Neglected to include, Volvo used the money from selling their passenger car division to improve their presence in heavy trucks. Survivable July holidays to those who celebrate them.

    253:

    Talking of political corruption ...
    There seems to be a rule or stricture, that for any party to be in uninterrupted & virtually-unbridled power for any extended period leads to sleaze, corruption & stamping on the little people.
    This example - which I found amusing seeming to demonstrate it.
    The SNP & the tories, are, to the people of Orkney, identical - far-away, entrenched, lying & corrupt.
    Oops.

    254:

    Just trying to add my 2 cents to the open space kitchen subthread: open kitchens are an abomination. They stink your entire living room if you do anything but heat up ready meals.

    And in modern times they're a cost cutting measure. You need less space by code for a kitchen + living room than for two separate rooms. Not to mention the expense and space taken by the wall that's now gone.

    Say no to open kitchens :)

    255:

    You need less space by code for a kitchen + living room than for two separate rooms.

    Where is this true? If I may ask?

    256:

    Friends of mine do a lot of frying with bacon grease. They have a kitchen with sliding doors, which they use. The house still smells of bacon in the morning even in the living room, and when I first visit I can recognize their place by the smell.

    Personally I'd rather smell curry. :-)

    257:

    Am I the only one who saw this?

    We should talk about the Bechdel test…

    If we must.

    How do you feel about it these days?

    It was a joke. I didn’t ever intend for it to be the real gauge it has become and it’s hard to keep talking about it over and over, but it’s kind of cool.

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/jul/02/alison-bechdel-test-dykes-to-watch-out-for-cartoonist-interview

    258:

    They stink your entire living room if you do anything but heat up ready meals.

    I am yet to dislike any smell my wife cooks up.

    OTOH, sometimes the fumes set off fire alarm. Having an open plan kitchen helps avoid it, as she points a (rather large) fan toward the door to the outside, and opens the door.

    259:

    Open plan kitchens and "living" areas fit a life style. And if that fits your life, great. If not, whoops. And many people buy the look and don't think through how they deal with meals.

    And some who do think it through during a new build or re-model put in a very good vent/exhaust hood. (Skipping how many times the exhaust on a 2 story house winds up being to just above the back desk for sitting eating in nice weather. Oops again.)

    But if you're into fine art painting, I'd say nope.

    260:

    Re: (UK) EMP not same as (UK) MP

    To me, they still look like an elected-by-its-citizens government representative.

    Per Wikipedia ...

    Hmmm - no wonder he wanted the UK out: Geez, can't a pol accept a bribe anymore!? But seriously, I wonder whether any body audits declared financial interests vs. lifestyle during and after serving as EMP. BTW - he supposedly was paid the same salary as a regular UK MP. I'm guessing that his work hours were a lot shorter though.

    'Financial interests

    Members declare their financial interests in order to prevent any conflicts of interest. These declarations are published annually in a register and are available on the Internet.[17]'

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_the_European_Parliament

    261:

    I'm guessing that his work hours were a lot shorter though.

    While an MEP Nige spent three years as the UK representative on the EU Fisheries Committee. He went to one meeting of 42 held, and subsequently used the plight of the UK fishing industry due to EU regulation as a Brexit talking point.

    262:

    A father and son were driving to the ball game. On the way their car was involved in a serious accident. The father was killed outright, and his son was critically injured. He was taken to A&E by ambulance and prepped for immediate surgery. The surgeon came in, saw the boy, and turned away, saying "I can't do this: this is my son!"

    Explanation?

    I have to confess, when I first read this story (some decades ago), I couldn't figure it out. No, its not mistaken identity. No, there is no time travel involved.

    When I did get it, I was ashamed. Lesson learned.

    The Bechdel Test is of the same type. The point is not whether a story is good or bad, still less that it is a checklist item. The point is that you need to stop and think hard to find a story which passes, because of the way that in our society the default assumption is "male", with "female" being the exception for most positions. That's why when you ask Stable Diffusion for a picture of just about any profession, the person it shows is a white man.

    (Hmmm. The Blackdal Test: does the story include two non-white characters, not romantic partners, who have a conversation about something other than a racially charged topic?)

    The solution to this isn't to self-consciously include a scene which passes the test, its for writers to do the kind of exercise Charlie does in the OP, and hence to think about their default assumptions for the sex of characters. As a writer, when you want a character who is a surgeon, you don't think about his sex any more than you think about his hair or eye colour. You just call up a mental image of "surgeon", and of course he's a white male, just like in the Stable Diffusion picture.

    263:

    Tim H. @ 250:

    Yes, Polestar's are sort of "Special Volvos", Volvo is a subsidiary of Geely, who bought them* when Ford was trying to evade the worst of the economic "Charlie Foxtrot" in 2008.

    Yeah, who built it was just an aside. I had to look it up because I'm not likely to be buying a car any time soon (if ever again if I can keep the Jeep running) so I didn't know who makes it.

    I couldn't tell you who the actual manufacturer of most current ICE vehicles is either (unless it's one of the OLD brand names).

    I was really more interested in the rental process not yet being "ready for prime time" as the guy making the video put it. He didn't make any complaints about the car itself ... well, his mother-in-law said the back seat was too small ...

    The main "complaint" seemed to be the difficulty finding out how much charge it was supposed to have when he turned it back in and the only charging point convenient to the rental agency lot requiring him to download an APP to his phone (and not taking credit cards).

    264:

    David L @ 257:

    Am I the only one who saw this?

    No, Uncle Stinky posted a link to the same article back @ 241:

    265:

    Re: (UK) EMP not same as (UK) MP

    Get your acronym right: it's Member of the European Parliament, or MEP. EMP would be Electro-Magnetic Pulse, and while Farage has brain-frying potential that's slightly inacurate.

    266:

    Well, that's changing. Unfortunately, what it's changing to is the studios wanting chatbots to write scripts, because the content is irrelevant, all that's important are shots, explosions, loud noises, and other special effects, and poses by hot big stars.

    I've been noticing people saying that the trailers show all the best points of a new movie...

    No, I'm not exaggerating: I refer you to this article, about most people now turning on closed captioning because they can't hear the dialog. https://entertainment.slashdot.org/story/23/07/02/2054221/why-are-so-many-people-watching-tv-with-subtitles

    267:

    The annihilation of MEPs may be used to generate EMPs.

    268:

    David L @ 259:

    Open plan kitchens and "living" areas fit a life style. And if that fits your life, great. If not, whoops. And many people buy the look and don't think through how they deal with meals.

    And some who do think it through during a new build or re-model put in a very good vent/exhaust hood. (Skipping how many times the exhaust on a 2 story house winds up being to just above the back desk for sitting eating in nice weather. Oops again.)

    I'm becoming convinced this house was originally a tiny 3 bedroom "Jim Walter Homes" house (1991 according to tax records) and was remodeled recently by IDIOTS!. There's a lot of stupid here, but a lot more "fuck it, I just don't give a shit" (If the buyer can't see where I fucked it up 'cause sheet-rock [drywall] covers it, FUCK 'EM!).

    But they appear to have knocked out a bunch of walls to remove one of the bedrooms and opened up the tiny dining room to the kitchen and opened the whole thing between the kitchen/dining room and living room/former bedroom.

    It's really spacious if you don't mind a bedroom so small you can't "swing a cat" (which I would really like to do to the idiots).

    At some level such stupidity/idiocy IS a criminal offense ... if nothing else criminal FRAUD! Theft by deception.

    The "open plan" kitchen isn't a problem per se, but I've gone from having a 10'x10' kitchen with 12' of counter space (including sink) to a 12'x20' kitchen with 7' of counter space (including sink) and why the hell they put the connections for the washer & dryer at the same end of the kitchen as the work area and put the refrigerator connection (ice maker) 20' away on the other end of the kitchen I'll never understand.

    269:

    PS: An example of WHY I consider the idiocy to be criminal - the house has several nice new appliances - stove, microwave, dish washer - but they took or more likely threw away the instruction manuals. I'm having to try to find the appropriate models by searching the internet for images that match & then locating the models on the manufacturer's web site to see if I can download PDF files of the instructions.

    270:

    In Michael Flynn's 1990 novel In the Country of the Blind the protagonist is a black woman. When it was serialized in Analog he apparently got some anti-fan mail asking why he did that when there was no reason to make the character black. His answer was basically "why not?".

    Reminds me of the "fan" outrage when Loan Tran was cast as Rose Tico in The Last Jedi. As the Sad Puppies show, science fiction has its share of racist sexist manbabies*.


    *Even the women. Not mentioning specific names because UK libel law.

    271:

    Paul @ 262:

    A father and son were driving to the ball game. On the way their car was involved in a serious accident. The father was killed outright, and his son was critically injured. He was taken to A&E by ambulance and prepped for immediate surgery. The surgeon came in, saw the boy, and turned away, saying "I can't do this: this is my son!"

    Explanation?

    Yeah, OTOH, I've known the answer since I was in grade school (at least). Those are the kind of "logic" puzzles you use to entertain children. Any adult who doesn't see the obvious answer right away is a sad, sad puppy indeed.

    Especially if that adult is a SciFi fan actually living here in the 21st century. SciFi featured CAPABLE women long before other genres of fiction ... or even non-fiction.

    272:

    It is at least 65 years old, and probably much older. There were few female surgeos then, but some.

    There is the even older one: In one village, the barber shaves every man who does not shave himself. Who shaves the barber?

    273:

    We have a thread on introverts and a thread on whether open-plan kitchen/living spaces are a good idea. There is an obvious connection here: If you have a separate kitchen, that is the obvious place for us introverts to hang out in during social events. As captured by Jona Lewie in his immortal work "You'll Always Find Me in the Kitchen at Parties".

    274:

    The rot set in when they started to make TVs as appliances for watching opera, ballet, musicals, etc, despite such things being an invisibly small proportion of the whole of TV broadcasting. This results in a TV which is unsuitable for general purpose use. For everything else on TV (apart from actual concerts, which are another invisibly small proportion and are more suited to radio in any case) the point of and need for the sound channel is to convey speech clearly, and nothing else matters that much. And for this a 3" circular speaker with no kind of acoustically designed enclosure whatever is not only adequate, but actually superior, since its crappy response filters out most of the irrelevant gunk while being fine for reproducing speech frequencies.

    Though it does seem to be part of a more general (and weird) disappearance of understanding of what the sound is actually for, or maybe it's a (similarly weird) spread of some idea that because the video exists, it doesn't matter if the sound is a shitty and inappropriate match to it. Cinemas seem to have acquired the idea that it's provided especially to allow them to demonstrate how good a low frequency response you can get when you've got a cinema-sized space to accommodate the speakers. So they jack up the bass boost and everything gets obscured by the continual rumbling of all the overamplified low frequency ambient noise that in the real world isn't loud enough to hear/notice.

    Or, back to TV, UK TV news segments about what's gone on in Parliament today have the Houses of Parliament as the background behind the reporter. Once upon a time they used to do this sensibly, with the reporter in a studio and the HP background inserted using chroma-keying, so you could hear the report equally as well as you could the reporter-behind-a-desk segments. These days they have the poor bugger actually stood outside the HP in the wind and rain, trying to shout the report over the roar of the traffic noise, and voice and traffic alike being repeatedly blotted out by the wind blowing into the microphone. This is, of course, shit, because you can't hear what the reporter is saying. It's also obviously a load more hassle for them to do than just having the reporter in the studio. But they have this weird idea that purely because the background image of a big building sitting there not moving is now a live image of a big building sitting there not moving, that is enough to make it somehow "better" even though the report is no longer comprehensible.

    275:

    "SciFi featured CAPABLE women long before other genres of fiction"

    I'm not sure that's true at all. So much early SF was highly constrained by adopting themes traditionally exclusively male-dominated - ships (sea or space) and the navy, war and combat, perilous exploration, and so on. It took a long time before it was possible to take seriously the idea of women in such strongly masculine situations, and also for SF in general to break out of the constraint and start including a wider variety of themes. "Other fiction" has been able to cover any theme it wanted to since long before "SF" existed, and there are examples of works featuring capable women going back forever.

    There is a certain particularly nauseating style of writing produced by male authors who are afraid of emancipated women and write to convince themselves that men are still better really. So you get women holding positions of high office (of whatever kind) right alongside the men, but they keep throwing irrational tantrums or acting like silly little girls or otherwise behaving according to all the shitty stereotypes which are totally incongruous with someone being in their position. The male protagonist, who is probably in some less exalted position, spends all the time patronising the crap out of them and blatantly ignoring or contravening all their decisions, never gets fired or shot or put on a charge or anything, and eventually succeeds in despite of the female influence. Then often for extra special puke value the most important woman admits men might be worth looking at after all and they end up shagging.

    I've noticed that kind of thing in general fiction coinciding with the rise of concern in general society over the very basic rights for women, like being allowed to own property or run companies or vote. In SF on the other hand it doesn't crop up much until after WW2, ie. both after the war had provided so many successful demonstrations of women doing "men's jobs" and not wanting to stop just because the men had come back, and after the effects of women being given access to higher education had had time to work their way through.

    277:

    Elderly Cynic @ 272:

    It is at least 65 years old, and probably much older. There were few female surgeos then, but some.

    There is the even older one: In one village, the barber shaves every man who does not shave himself. Who shaves the barber?

    Well, as stated here, the obvious answer is the barber doesn't need to shave because SHE is no man ...

    OTOH, the original as proposed by Bertrand Russell ("Does the barber shave himself?") has no answer ... it can't be the barber, but it can't be anyone else BUT the barber ... paradox.

    278:

    in modern times they're a cost cutting measure.

    In some ways reasonably, we've constructed society so that a lot of people have no use for a kitchen, they have to work all the time. Why make them pay for a kitchen they can't use when we could take that money as pure profit instead?

    There's also a lot of inefficiency in providing a whole kitchen in a flat designed for one or two people. But scaling down is hard, as anyone who's used a "mini fridge" knows. Or 1/2 a washing machine.

    The granny flat I've has designed has the kitchen along one side of the living area because I'd rather have more usable living area than an extra wall. With a proper fume hood, obviously, and knowing that I need to be careful when frying. The fun part has been getting enough cupboard space (I have cooking equipment and food).

    279:

    I disagree. It's only in the last dozen or more years that it's gotten like this.

    Now, admittedly, concerts have been screwed by the sound people since the eithties, with 11 on a scale of 5 being "right", never mind if fuzzes the singer(s) voice.

    But now, what should be ordinary conversation is bad - it's like the whole idiocy of "oh, it's so edgy to use hand-held, unsteady cameras", I think.

    280:

    Pigeon @ 275:

    "SciFi featured CAPABLE women long before other genres of fiction"

    I'm not sure that's true at all. So much early SF was highly constrained by adopting themes traditionally exclusively male-dominated - ships (sea or space) and the navy, war and combat, perilous exploration, and so on. It took a long time before it was possible to take seriously the idea of women in such strongly masculine situations, and also for SF in general to break out of the constraint and start including a wider variety of themes. "Other fiction" has been able to cover any theme it wanted to since long before "SF" existed, and there are examples of works featuring capable women going back forever.

    I disagree. Consider Susan Calvin & Hazel Stone (Asimov & Heinlein).

    Although I will accept that Miss (Jane) Marple & Prudence Beresford ("née Cowley") WERE capable women NOT from the SciFi genre who came before my chosen examples.

    Nonetheless that wouldn't excuse misogyny, chauvinism and just plain sexism among TODAY's SciFi readers, especially those who came up reading the golden age authors. The wider world may still be ignorant, but we should not be.

    281:

    Well, they certainly started appearing in the seventies, and by the early eighties? The captain of the Norway is female, in Cherryh's Alliance/Union universe.

    282:

    Consider Susan Calvin & Hazel Stone (Asimov & Heinlein).

    Well, Pigeon did say "In SF on the other hand it doesn't crop up much until after WW2". Susan Calvin first appeared in 1950 and Hazel Stone in 1952.

    283:

    I can suggest a much simpler reason why so many people are using subtitles to watch TV. The aging population. I had been using subtitles for years. Then I finally accepted that my diminishing ability to hear higher frequencies needed action. I now wear (free) NHS hearing aids. I can now listen to “Lark Ascending” without the high notes fading away, appreciate birdsong and no longer use subtitles on TV (except for Nordic Noir detective stories in Danish, Swedish, Norwegian, Icelandic and Finnish). My daughter, two brothers in law and sister have also stopped using subtitles after starting to wear hearing aids. There are lots of people around who have damaged their hearing with loud music. I doubt that the USA is any different. However hearing aids and batteries are free in the NHS and I doubt if that’s true in the USA. Subtitles are free.

    284:

    In 271, JohnS noted: "Yeah, OTOH, I've known the answer since I was in grade school (at least). Those are the kind of "logic" puzzles you use to entertain children. Any adult who doesn't see the obvious answer right away is a sad, sad puppy indeed."

    That was precisely the point Norman Lear and his coauthors were trying to make with that episode of "All In The Family" just over 50 years ago. What's even more disturbing is that the culturally embedded gender prejudice is still apparently a thing: https://www.bu.edu/articles/2014/bu-research-riddle-reveals-the-depth-of-gender-bias/

    I'm old enough to remember watching the TV episode in question (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0509876/", seeing the answer to the riddle given, and my eyes being opened wide: "grownups aren't aware of what they aren't aware of; that's fucking scary!" I also remember my dismay at the uproar over the riddle, which lasted a good week worth of angry debate at my school.

    If you're too young to have seen this show, it's worth a look. It's undoubtedly dated, but my recollection is that it achieved some truly penetrating social commentary at times.

    285:

    Yeah but Asimov and Heinlein are like the day before yesterday. Novels as we know them start around three times as long ago, and there were novels with female protagonists from the beginning (written by female authors, sure). There are even arguments that literature declined for women since the 1800s. Personally I found that 50s stuff okay when I read it as a teenager in the 80s (probably more because I didn't know better than being closer to the time), but find it harder to make sense of now. I think everyone tries to derive universal understandings from within a bounded worldview, and sometimes, maybe due to time and distance, the things people write make their worldview look smaller. I'm sure the same would be said of our perspective now, the embedded cultural baggage we all still have, looking back from another 70 years or so, say, the 2090s. Assuming continuity of the cultural setting that makes such things possible, of course, that's not something that's certain anymore. Although I suppose it became suddenly uncertain in the late 40s anyway...

    286:

    TVs and Sound and such.

    Like much fo tech today. Us tech nerds have strong opinions about what people should by. But it turns out that most of those people could care less about what we think they should buy.

    Most people are "ok" with the sound that comes out of their TVs. And for the rest of us the TV Brands are more than happy to sell us a sound bar / system for $100 to $500. This also helps them make up lost profits from the cut throat TV market. At least in the US.

    If you stick with the top 5 or so brands in the US they don't sell anything smaller than 43" these days. Will maybe a loss leader 1080P. But for 4K you likely are looking at a 50" or bigger. At prices for a 65" that a 32" cost 2 or 3 years ago.

    Again, the general public doesn't care all that much (give a crap) about TV speakers. As they don't listen to anything but voices 99% of the time.

    As why I have sound bars. My wife's higher frequency hearing is going away fairly quickly. And by boosting the treble to max means she can hear without cranking the volume up to what are painful levels for me.

    287:

    To me, they still look like an elected-by-its-citizens government representative.

    well, mps and meps are allowed to have second jobs (mps aren't if they're ministers) as long as they're reasonably scrupulous about declaring their earnings, otoh if yonder nige has been carelessly taking delivery of large bags of unmarked rubles and someone's found out about it i can imagine he could find himself in financial coventry

    288:

    Re: 'Get your acronym right: it's Member of the European Parliament, or MEP ...'

    Thanks for the correction and the laugh!

    Happy belated 20th wedding anniversary to you and Feòrag!

    JohnS @280:

    Re: 'golden age SF'

    My impression is that the definition/perception of SF among the general public changed with Star Wars (1977) - action, adventure, one character has the power to completely alter history, etc. Basically, it's the wildest wild west shoot-em up yarn only it's now set among the stars - and some of the aliens are friendlies, the weapons are a hybrid of romantic past with exciting future, the enemy has no personal features that we (the good guys) can identify with, and any women in power are probably daughters/wives/sisters of some elite. Overall, I think that the original StarTrek was a lot closer to the range of ideas first explored in the golden age of SF.

    adrian smith @ 287: ' mps and meps ... 2nd jobs'

    Hadn't known that - thanks!

    Might have made sense when these rules were first introduced but not now: way too much information to process now, and that info is getting increasingly technical/sophisticated.

    289:

    "Again, the general public doesn't care all that much (give a crap) about TV speakers. As they don't listen to anything but voices 99% of the time."

    That's just it. TV speakers (and the circuitry feeding them) used to be designed with that point firmly in mind. So what you got was basically the same AF stage and speaker as you'd get in a pocket transistor radio, with the speaker just screwed to the inside of the case wherever it was convenient. This did perfectly well for reproducing voices, and nobody cared that it was crap for anything more than that. (Well apart from the sound effects bods, who liked it because it made their job easier that you couldn't hear the thunder was only tin.)

    But then they started getting pretensions to "hi-fi" and actually putting effort into trying to get a wide and flat frequency response. The speaker is still tiny by necessity, but now it has a long-travel diaphragm so it has enough piston action to have some sort of ability to reproduce bass frequencies. Instead of being just screwed to the inside of the case, it's tucked into some complicated plastic moulding with deliberate acoustic properties. And the circuitry that drives it now has specific frequency response shaping to flatten out as far as possible the lumps and deficiencies of the [speaker+mouldings+case] assembly. The broadcasters, given this, started playing up to it and actively using those parts of the audio spectrum that they previously hadn't expected people to be able to hear and so hadn't bothered about.

    All this despite as you say most people not giving a crap about anything but voices. And the result is that TVs no longer have the audio bandwidth limitations which if anything clarified voices while filtering out intrusive background noise. Instead they accurately reproduce everything you don't want to hear alongside the voices you do, and it gets in the way of making the voices out. Subtitles provide a way around this problem, and it makes sense that once people realise they're now there, they'll start using them.

    (Which isn't to say there aren't other reasons as well. Like those shows which have people talking at normal volume but every time the presenter finishes a sentence there's an earsplitting thunderous chord which fetches tiles off the roof and stuns insects in mid-flight.)

    290:

    "My impression is that the definition/perception of SF among the general public changed with Star Wars"

    Do you mean in a sort of negative, oppositional-reaction sense? I'd be more inclined to regard Start Warts as a kind of "last great fling" of the "Hero's Quest IN SPAAACE!!" kind of SF. Not to deny that it has its own strong fandom, but it seems to me that people were beginning to notice that SF in general was mostly just recycling the plots of standard fairy tales with a different version of magic, and starting to want something that was making wider use of the possibilites offered by the genre.

    At about the same time as Start Warts we had THHGTTG, which used it for humour, and not that long after we had Neuromancer, which is a much-cited "landmark". And the variety we have these days is a whole lot wider, of course.

    291:

    If you're looking for men who write knowledgeable, capable women, we could start with... idunno... Shakespeare.

    292:

    Oh. And some of the women in the Bible are quite adept at procuring justice for themselves or their people; Tamar and Esther come to mind.

    293:

    Not to mention Judith

    294:

    OTOH, the original as proposed by Bertrand Russell ("Does the barber shave himself?") has no answer ... it can't be the barber, but it can't be anyone else BUT the barber ... paradox.

    Only if you assume the barber is clean-shaven…

    295:

    Yes... I only talked to novels, with are a, um, novel form, so to speak.

    Not just Shakespeare, I think it was just relatively common for female protagonists to have agency. One from the same era that occurred to me off the top of my head is John Webster, The Duchess of Malfi, which probably passes due to conversations between the Duchess and her maid. I tried looking for classical examples, but that's really hard to google.

    296:

    "SciFi featured CAPABLE women long before other genres of fiction"

    Probably little known outside the UK, but the Dan Dare comic strip from the Eagle features a Very capable woman in the person of Professor Jocelyn Peabody. This comic strip dates back to the early 1950's, and although in many respects it can be seen as RAF Battle of Britain fighter pilots in space, was in many ways quite forward looking with women and non Anglo Saxon people in positions of authority and fully capable of holding their own. I believe it played a part in shaping the young me and my interest in science and attitude toward others, much as Star Trek did for a later generation.

    297:

    My memory my be at fault, but I am pretty sure it I have seen it in a book that predates Russell in the form I gave.

    298:

    pigeon & SFR
    NO "2001" - released in 1968

    299:

    In the formulation that was posted here either the barber is a woman or he's a man who does shave himself.

    Tbh it's hard to do it properly in a language where "himself" is gendered.

    300:

    I've noticed that kind of thing in general fiction coinciding with the rise of concern in general society over the very basic rights for women, like being allowed to own property or run companies or vote. In SF on the other hand it doesn't crop up much until after WW2, ie. both after the war had provided so many successful demonstrations of women doing "men's jobs" and not wanting to stop just because the men had come back, and after the effects of women being given access to higher education had had time to work their way through.

    why not WW1? Women did all sorts of jobs in WW1. Or at least they did in the UK.

    301:

    How about John Cleland? Fanny Hill (1748) certainly has agency. And, shockingly, a happy ending.

    302:

    I have Boccaccio's Decameron in my head too. Several of the narrators are women, and some of the stories have female protagonists. It might be a technical pass (the female story narrators are telling the story to the group of men and women, so technically they are holding forth at length about something other than a man to a group that includes other women... but it's not really a conversation as such). But I think that's getting into the weeds a bit... it's reasonably clear that each generation looks back and imagines the previous generation is much more conservative, as the present generation has invented pretty much everything libertine from scratch. It comes as a shock to many people that this is not really the case.

    303:

    Raise Daniel Defoe. Moll Flanders was published in 1722.

    304:

    Henry Farrell channels OGH's approach to bureaucracy in a factucidal take on LLM's?

    https://crookedtimber.org/2023/07/03/shoggoths-amongst-us/

    Our piece was inspired by a recurrent meme in debates about the Large Language Models (LLMs) that power services like ChatGPT. It’s a drawing of a shoggoth ... As Cosma said, the true Singularity began two centuries ago at the commencement of the Long Industrial Revolution. That was when we saw the first “vast, inhuman distributed systems of information processing” which had no human-like “agenda” or “purpose,” ... Those systems were the “self-regulating market” and “bureaucracy.”

    305:

    I think Prof Peabody is an attempt to depict the capable women who came to the fore in WW2. Figures such as Beatrice Shilling, Hedy Lamar and the many WAAF’s working sector controls in the RAF fighter command. A reaction against the sexy depictions of women in the pulps which the Eagle was set up to be very much against. Unfortunately she is often misused in the strip and can end up as the woman in peril. Nothing new there, Edgar Rice Burroughs sets Princess Dejah Thoris up as a proud and capable ruler then mainly uses her as a Mcguffin to be rescued by his lost cause hero. I read these but probably grew up in several ways reading Alan Moore’s Halo Jones and the Street Samurai of Neuromancer. I think those prefigure the post human female that OGH has in Jupiter’s children but in very different ways. All consider the aspect of the male gaze and abuse while finding a way for the protagonist to express who they actually are.

    306:

    As for writing or portraying women, I would suggest that all of the common female archetypes in media (...) aren't real women at all. They are men's stereotypes of women.

    That's kind of interesting, because I'm not sure that's generally true. Many of them IMO are women's stereotypes of women.

    • warm loving mother: Unisex. Everyone wants one.

    • whore with a heart of gold: If we're being reductionist then a basic stereotyping male doesn't care about the whore's inner life. For a man's stereotype, this is at least a second-order stereotype where they prefer their whores to be reasonably happy in their trade, rather than the more typical trafficked/exploited victim. OTOH as a stereotype for women, this character is someone with agency. Not the greatest life choice, sure, but at a time when the equivalent life choice for men was enlisting, it's not necessarily bad. And for women this is a powerful subversion of everything that women are "supposed" to not want - and financially and socially successful into the bargain. It's hard to see this as a status quo thing.

    • strong frontier woman: Also unisex. Who doesn't want a competent parent?

    • bitchy high school queen bee: I'd say this can only be a female thing. To stereotype men, we mostly just don't do this. Not only that, we mostly don't consume fiction containing this kind of character. OTOH you can read any book about schooldays, written by women for girls, and find this character. Blyton, Brent Dyer, all those old boarding school stories - none of them were writing for any male figure at any point.

    • ball busting CEO: Probably a male-gaze monster, sure, at least initially. But if there's some kind of inner life there, they can also be a female-gaze "if you get here then you can get to do this too" kind of person. And post-Thatcher you have to ask why you'd identify a driven personality as "ball-busting" when they're merely equally driven - that speaks to the gaze of the person analysing the fiction and not necessarily the author.

    • apple pie baking grandma: Unisex again.

    • manic pixie dream girl: Hmm. Maybe male gaze. But then as a woman, wouldn't you also like a friend like that? How many people don't have that one friend who's a bit more off-script than the rest?

    • Hallmark Christmas chick flick romantic heroine: Fiction written and produced by women for women. They're not a man's stereotype, they're a woman's Mary-Sue.

    I wouldn't disagree that they're stereotypes, but IMO it's hard to say that they're stereotypes from a gendered gaze.

    307:

    As why I have sound bars. My wife's higher frequency hearing is going away fairly quickly. And by boosting the treble to max means she can hear without cranking the volume up to what are painful levels for me.

    This may be an argument for investigating AppleTV. (Set top box with streaming content from Apple as well if you want to pay for a subscription, but works via apps with other providers.) The new tvOS firmware due to drop with iOS 17 apparently includes HomePod integration so you can get Dolby ATMOS surround sound via a pair of HomePods that know about your AppleTV. And the new firmware for AirPods is going to include hearing tests and affordances for hearing-impaired users == they're not yet going to disrupt the hearing aid market, but they can do stuff like boost speech frequences while suppressing background noise if you're in a noisy venue and want to talk to someone.

    So I suspect they're at most a year or two away from supporting personalized listener auditory profiles with AppleTV, to adjust the frequency levels and compression for optimal hearing.

    308:

    I solved the Spanish Barber paradox pretty much immediately when I first heard it back in school. The Spanish Barber (male) is shaved by his ten-year-old apprentice (male). We had been reading history at school about the medieval-period apprentice system and it was obvious.

    309:

    This may be an argument for investigating AppleTV.

    Surely you've noticed that you and I are two of the more Apple invested people around here. [grin]

    My wife's issue is likely to need in canal aids before Apple has something that makes a big difference and doesn't annoy my listening.

    But periodically I do look at how well the Airpod Pros we have might help her. But for her to keep one or two in her ears all the time is a fashion statement she doesn't want.

    310:

    The barber is obviously Duncan Goodhew

    311:

    ilya187 @ 282:

    Consider Susan Calvin & Hazel Stone (Asimov & Heinlein).

    Well, Pigeon did say "In SF on the other hand it doesn't crop up much until after WW2". Susan Calvin first appeared in 1950 and Hazel Stone in 1952.

    I'm pretty sure the Asimov wrote the first story that has Dr Calvin in it in 1941 ... and here in the U.S. where Asimov was living at the time, WW2 TECHNICALLY hadn't started yet.

    Whether I'm right or wrong about the dates, my point about what our attitudes as card carrying SciFi devotees should be TODAY - here in the 21st century - still stands. We shouldn't need to tell us to treat women and other OTHERS as full human beings.

    Hell, there's a rule from the 1st century** about that if we'd only put it into practice today ... "Do unto others ..."

    ** Probably older than that, but y'all already know how bad I am with older dates 😉

    312:

    there's a rule from the 1st century

    The Christian version of that rule is absolutely terrible. "Do unto others as you would be done by" is a perfect justification for everything the Spanish Inquisition got up to, auto da fé and all: "I want to be treated like this, and so must you" is just plain wrong.

    There's a better Talmudic formulation, in the negative, from about the same time, by Rabbi Hillel: "Do not do unto others as you would not want them to do to you. That is the entire Torah." (Although in various forms it goes back to Confucian times, about five centuries earlier.)

    In it's most succinct formulation: "don't be a dick".

    313:

    SciFi featured CAPABLE women long before other genres of fiction ... or even non-fiction.

    Well, there is one very capable woman whose life has generated an enormous body of fiction and non-fiction (and lots of art)... Jeanne d'Arc (1412-1431).

    314:

    ilya187 @ 293:

    Not to mention Judith

    With all those prior examples to shape our attitudes (our perception of others?), there's really no excuse for being an asshole about women and people who are different today. That's all I'm really trying to say.

    315:

    Greg Tingey @ 298:

    pigeon & SFR
    NO "2001" - released in 1968

    For me, "2001" is still the most "technically" proficient SciFi movie because the "space ships" in the film moved (looked like they moved) the way "space ships" look in reality.

    But "Star Wars", despite it's technical flaws, was a fantastic film. Even the second & third iterations were pretty good. After it became a franchise I thought it went downhill, but even some of the spin-off films (Rogue One & Solo) have been pretty good.

    I didn't care much for "Episodes I, II and III"; I just didn't think they were up to par, really stale.

    But the original film, when it was a stand alone BEFORE the rest of it came along, was just an unbelievably fresh take (for me) on what a SciFi film could be.

    316:

    For me, "2001" is still the most "technically" proficient SciFi movie

    There's a mostly-joking conspiracy theory about the Moon landings: NASA faked the Apollo program, but they hired Stanley Kubrick as director and he was such a fanatic for detail that they ended up filming on location because it ws cheaper.

    ("Star Wars" is basically Magic Space Wizards. Zero credibility as SF, but it works pretty well as fantasy. You could re-frame it in a bronze age Aegean/Mediterranean setting as some sort of ancient Greek myth-making and it would still work perfectly.)

    317:

    Charlie Stross @ 312:

    "there's a rule from the 1st century"

    The Christian version of that rule is absolutely terrible. "Do unto others as you would be done by" is a perfect justification for everything the Spanish Inquisition got up to, auto da fé and all: "I want to be treated like this, and so must you" is just plain wrong.

    There's a better Talmudic formulation, in the negative, from about the same time, by Rabbi Hillel: "Do not do unto others as you would not want them to do to you. That is the entire Torah." (Although in various forms it goes back to Confucian times, about five centuries earlier.)

    In it's most succinct formulation: "don't be a dick".

    I'm not sure the Spanish Inquisition was the first or even the worst example of how the formulation can be perverted (with some of the stuff going on around here nowadays). Forcing your own religious system on others is certainly not in the SPIRIT of the admonition.

    But, the way I learned it as a child, "DO NOT" is insufficient, you have to be proactive respecting others. "Don't be evil" alone is not enough to make one "good".

    I find the admonition to "do unto others" inextricably linked with the parable of the "Good Samaritan" ... the despised man who is the only one who will help someone in distress when the "good people" passed him by. You have to BE the Samaritan, not one of the "good people".

    318:

    Charlie Stross @ 316:

    "For me, "2001" is still the most "technically" proficient SciFi movie"

    There's a mostly-joking conspiracy theory about the Moon landings: NASA faked the Apollo program, but they hired Stanley Kubrick as director and he was such a fanatic for detail that they ended up filming on location because it ws cheaper.

    Never heard that one before, but I like it!

    ("Star Wars" is basically Magic Space Wizards. Zero credibility as SF, but it works pretty well as fantasy. You could re-frame it in a bronze age Aegean/Mediterranean setting as some sort of ancient Greek myth-making and it would still work perfectly.)

    My understanding is Star Wars was a homage to the Flash Gordon & Buck Rogers (a pair of comic strip characters) serials from 1930s Hollywood with updated modern practical effects so you don't get the cheesy look of smoke from the "rocket exhaust" curling up towards the ceiling of the sound stage ...

    319:

    for her to keep one or two in her ears all the time is a fashion statement she doesn't want

    Doesn't want to be mistaken for a youngster? :-)

    320:

    Why we should prefer the negative formulation is extremely straightforward to demonstrate: masochists and people who truly love pineapple on pizza exist.

    (TL;DR: "good" differs a lot, "that which is hateful" much less.)

    321:

    As someone who loved Pilipino pizza (ham, pineapple, anchovies), I've always preferred the Golden Metarule formulation:

    Do unto others as they would have you do unto them.

    With the sensible proviso that one is not obligated to do anything, it works well in a variety of settings.

    322:

    Or in my case, it hurts too much to keep them in for longer than 5 minutes at a stretch.

    323:

    There's a better Talmudic formulation

    Well there's also the Kant's first formulation, Act only according to that maxim whereby you can at the same time will that it should become a universal law, though I guess Kant has multiple formulations too and there are plenty of people interested in reconciling Kantian deontology with some sort of Singer-adjacent rule utilitarianism. Maybe I am one.

    What I found was the need to include a cross-cultural perspective, and because that radically undermines some principles the working ethicists find important ("bah, relativism!"), I got bogged down (in terms of getting into the space academically, I mean, not in terms of "solving the problem".) Anyway, it was one of the more interesting angles/opportunities to emerge from doing that postgrad law-for-non-lawyers degree. I should go back to that one day.

    324:

    As a sports coach and parent I have usually formulated guidance as 'don't do what you don't want others to do', shortened to 'don't be a dick' where appropriate.

    Do unto others etc. works until it doesn't - e.g. if you don't want or care if others wear a mask in the middle of a pandemic.

    Rawls takes a different angle, and suggests establishing standards of 'justice' from behind a 'curtain of ignorance' - i.e. not knowing if you will benefit or be harmed by a particular standard.

    325:

    RE: 'NO "2001" - released in 1968'

    I agree that 2001 remains a true SF classic but still maintain that StarWars is what made SF movies sure hits at the movie box office among the general public (vs. just among SF fans).

    And some of this has to do with the relevance of kid-appeal: StarWars had it in spades, 2001 with its ambiguity about what's out there and warning about AI level computers was a movie for adults.

    https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/worldwide/all-movies/creative-types/science-fiction

    Oh crap! - the above site also has 'most anticipated movies' and Barbie of the anatomically impossible female body tops the list. If it's about childhood toys/story characters, I'd rather watch a Muppets movie.

    326:

    Kant and Hillel have the advantage that they're more accepting of diversity. We've discussed this before, but masking during covid is a good example of the defects in personalising the maxim.

    In Australia we also have the clash of cultures between "bushfires are unprofitable" and "burning is necessary to keep the country working". Which shows the limits of even Kant's approach. More generally we can extend that to "maximum profit now" vs "species survival is good", two fundamental axioms that are incompatible with each other.

    327:

    Um, and perhaps the studios are thinking that people are watching this on their mobile... and at that point, I refer to a review I heard on the radio, around '10, on new phones. After nearly 10 min of the features, the last sentence is, "and by the way, how is the sound quality on these phones?" To which the answer was "two were mediocre, and the rest terrible."

    328:

    Episode I was, for most people over 12, awful (and pod race, soon to be a ride at whatever studio amusement park"). Episode two was not good. Episode III was, in fact, the one I was waiting for, complete with Obi Wan's failure to kill Darth, leaving him to presumably suffering until he died.

    329:

    Of course it was an homage, that's what Lucas does. May I refer you to Raiders (also an homage)?

    330:

    Oh, and speaking of capable women: Dorothy Vaneman, later Seaton, Doc Smith, Skylark of Space, began writing in 1919... and she's a Ph.D. in music, and Mart considers her worthy to play his Stradivarius. Also, kidnapping her is not a safe proposition....

    331:

    First off, belated congratulations to Charlie and Feorag on their anniversary!

    Second off Star Wars...did anyone notice that the real genius of Star Wars was massive marketing? While it wasn't the first TV or movie series to have toy spinoffs, IIRC it was the first movie to have fast food tie-ins, massive numbers of toys at various price points, comic books, and so forth. That may be its real genius. A genius, of course, that the Maus Haus Corporate seems to be at pains to disassemble, for reasons.

    Third off, since I've been having fun reading about "The Dreaming" (which has a reasonable analog in "Native American Spirituality", "African Indigenous Religion" etc. In other words, it's a loosely-defined blanket term under which anthropologists and ethnographers justify their existence, which naifs like me ignorantly take to mean things it doesn't...), I want to point out something weird:

    So far as I understand, one major point of all having "Dreaming" or whatever, is to preserve and protect information without writing it down: it's a shared universe of mnemonic devices. Things like Star Wars, D&D, Marvel and DC, Harry Potter, and others seem to generate shared universes that share some of the same mechanisms. For example, people nerd out, obsessively collect information and mnemonic devices merch, go to conventions, bond over their shared interests... And these shared universes simply started with artists trying to make money. To get from a commercial shared universe to a dreaming, all the nerdy stuff has to be tied to the real world somehow.

    For example, LOTR can (and has!) been read as a fairly accurate metaphor for the experience of writing a PhD dissertation (Precious will drive you insane at the end, and you've still got to lug it up the hill). What if Middle Earth's stories had been deliberately designed to help students graduate? It's a weird example, but that whole experience of nerding out and bonding over shared interests seems to be what old-time religion used as a teaching system. It's about teaching stuff that's fairly tedious to learn and perfect in a way that's "sticky" enough to help people learn and retain what they learn.

    Now that we've outsourced our memories to external media, this use of art and memory doesn't matter so much, so the streets have found other uses for these parts of human experience. But it might be fun to think of going to a Con as a hint of what going to an ancient religious festival might have been like thousands of years ago.

    And if you want to re-enchant the world, you might do worse than to start with Cons, turning nerds into initiated stans, and making shared universes that are practically useful as teaching systems.

    332:

    Or in my case, it hurts too much to keep them in for longer than 5 minutes at a stretch.

    Before the Airpod Pros with the replaceable variously sized ear bits, I could never wear any Apple ear "things". My ear canals are just too small for the one size fits all. Now the "Pros" with the various sized soft cups, they work fine for me.

    333:

    I agree that 2001 remains a true SF classic but still maintain that StarWars is what made SF movies sure hits at the movie box office among the general public (vs. just among SF fans).

    2001 was like watching a really really really well made documentary. Dialog was a bit thin. And people went because up till then most SF in media was, well, you could see the latex too easily. Plus "reverse the polarity" type tropes were all over.

    Star Wars had the visuals that didn't look like 2 pie plate hanging from a string AND a plot AND dialog AND excitement. Not that all of the last 3 made sense all the time but zowie it moved. Air resistance and wings on space fighters not withstanding.

    334:

    massive numbers of toys at various price points,

    Well sort of. The first released movie had the big toy certificate sale. Lots of parents had to do some fancy talking Christmas morning. Read the first few paragraphs in the History section of this.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenner_Star_Wars_action_figures

    335:

    Star Wars...did anyone notice that the real genius of Star Wars was massive marketing?

    I and my buddies in our mid 20s saw the previews the winter/sprint before the release and were convinced this was going to be something different.

    336:

    Oh crap! - the above site also has 'most anticipated movies' and Barbie of the anatomically impossible female body tops the list.

    Eh, no: you're missing a treat if you don't at least watch the cinematic trailer on youtube with an eye for the deliberate subversion! The Barbie movie is almost certainly going to be a complete head trip, insofar as Greta Gerwig seems to be leaning hard into the "let's blow this shit up" approach as opposed to the "let's make a two hour marketing infomercial targeting tweenage girls" one you seem to expect.

    And, crossing the streams with 2001, here's the first teaser trailer ...

    337:

    As I understand it, Lucas made Star Wars on a low-to-medium budget and it was expected to break even and mostly do well in summer matinee showings, not set the planet on fire.

    The studio didn't pay enough attention to the contract small-print and when Lucas quietly inked in a very broad gimme for all the toy merchandising rights they rolled over without even querying it.

    Then Lucas went into a frenzy of marketing even before the movie opened, and even though it was the box office sensation of the year, it netted him far more money from the toys.

    Money which he then reinvested in bigger and better SFX for the next two movies, leading to more toy sales ...

    338:

    Ralph Bakshi said it was worse than that, his Wizards was roughly contemporary and in the DVD comments track he said that the studio had a management shake up and told the directors of projects they didn't approve of to accept pay cuts, Lucas asked for the merchandising rights in exchange, and got them.

    339:

    If IBM's lawyers had paid attention with Gates's contract, the computing world would have been very different! Star Wars didn't have quite the same impact, significant though it was.

    340:

    OK, we are now well past post #300, so for all you hard science SciFi fanatics, here's the latest science news.

    We've (probably) detected intelligent life.

    Some of you may recall I drew attention to an odd LIGO gravitational wave detection last year: S200114f. This was distinctive in that it was very short (milliseconds) duration with high frequency (100's Hz). To me it looked like an impulse -- something like the waveform you get when a drum is hit just once.

    Well, what do we find in LIGO's O4 observations, which began in late May 2023? Six further similar observations! So S200114f is not an anomaly, but a regular occurrence. And I think this means we can probably discount one suggested explanation: a head-on blackhole collision (instead of the usual inspiralling collision).

    For those interested, all detections are listed here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_gravitational_wave_observations

    Thoughts anyone?

    341:

    The question that comes to my mind is "What LIGO signature would a warp drive starship generate?".

    342:

    There was one of THOSE physics papers published a few days ago, with about a hundred authors with the first three names staking a claim for a Nobel down the line, that addressed the LIGO data with regards to the "ripples". They think it's dark matter finally showing itself gravitationally if I read the summaries correctly.

    Whether the dark matter in question is proof of extraterrestrial intelligence is another matter (so to speak).

    343:

    Er, he is then a man who does not shave himself, and therefore he is shaved by the barber (himself)! Anyway, my point was that this is a classic conundrum that was adopted by Russell, not invented by him. I quoted a bit loosely but, in the form I was referring to, the clue was in the wording, and the answer was that the barber was a woman. This was mostly explained by Russell himself:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barber_paradox

    The surgeon example has the same form, but its point always was the mistaken assumption that a surgeon must be male.

    344:

    For what it's worth: I saw an entertaining cartoon about climate change just now.

    More true than I would like.

    345:

    Oscillations, even repeated periods of them, are quite common in many contexts. Frankly, I am as inclined to believe that it's Skarl the drummer (Dunsany) as it's dark matter.

    346:
    The question that comes to my mind is "What LIGO signature would a warp drive starship generate?".

    Well, tell me how your warp drive operates, then I'll tell you what sort of signature we'd see! /snark

    But, being serious, what LIGO will detect is big things operating near us (say an Ark Ship), and small things accelerating very hard.

    A big thing would likely leave a longer -- more continuous -- signature, than we are seeing.

    Those impulse signatures suggest its something "small" hitting and/or puncturing the space-time fabric of the universe. Something small being of the order of 10km for a millisecond duration event. That's how Hewitt and co. determined what was going on when Jocelyn Bell discovered Pulsars.

    347:

    Ahh, one of those papers.

    I suppose it's possible that what LIGO detected is a very truncated series of snap shots of a continuous process, but it has the feel of discontinuities to me. I wonder what EC makes of the wave forms?

    See here (Figure's 1 and 2) for plots of S200114f: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2206.02551.pdf.

    Of course unlike Nojay, I'm no physicist. That's Mrs L's specialism... ;)

    348:

    That I can't. I would prefer, if humans build one, it be tested 2 AU away from the home planet, preferably with our home star between it and us.

    349:

    »I wonder what EC makes of the wave forms?«

    You should read a paper like this as trying to answer the question "Does these observations rule that theory out?"

    The overall tenor of such papers are "Let us try to find a set of (plausible) parameters, which makes this theory produce these new observations"

    If you cannot find any such parameters, then the theory has a problem, but if you can, you are not much wiser than before you started.

    Over time you may get multiple such fixes on the parameters, and if they converge, good, and if they do not, the theory is in trouble.

    It is important to always keep in mind how tall the ivory tower this kind of science is standing on top of, and that a lot of the foundations are merely speculation.

    Well reasoned speculation, but speculation all the same.

    For instance, right now we have three different values for the Hubble constant, 67, 70 and 74, and it is a good assumption that a paper like the one you link to, might be using different values, based on the various precursor articles they build on top of.

    If you want to monitor seismic shifts in astronomy, keep an eye on the GAIA catalogues and the avalanches of articles each version generates.

    350:

    Basically, as Poul-Henning Kamp says. It's not so much turtles all the way down, as plausible guesses all the way up. The much-vaunted 'proofs' are almost all invalid as proofs because they are never more than proofs of consistency, and often depend on assuming the very theory that is being 'proved'.

    Having a dark sense of humour, I still like the possibility that the Hubble red-shift is not solely due to recession and might, for example, be partially due to interaction with the vacuum. Current theory predicts the birth of electron-positron pairs; I am not enough of a quantum mechanic to even guess if that could plausibly cause that effect. If that were true, the whole tower of speculations has one of its main pillars undermined. In that area, the current theories do not match observation well.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmological_constant_problem

    And, if 'vacuum interaction' were even partially the cause of the red shift, continuous creation would be back with a big bang :-)

    351:

    Perhaps I shuld clarify what I meant in #345. Feedback effects are ubiquitous, and are often (even usually) best modelled by an ARIMA system. One of the properties of those is that they can generate short-term or irregular periodicity (think sunspots or El Nino). The classic error is to assume that the effects are genuinely periodic, and to use them for prediction over timescales of multiple 'cycles'. Note that, in many physical systems, the effects can modify the parameters, so introduce non-linearity; at that point, the patterns can be very hard indeed to analyse.

    Before even speculating intelligence, I should like to see a decent analysis that such apparent sections of periodicity could not reasonably be due to a simple feedback system.

    352:

    We've (probably) detected intelligent life.

    Erm, let's do the non-physicist probability testing too. AFAIK, gravity waves have two properties that matter in this case: they take energy to generate, and the wave front expands spherically, meaning that the amplitude of the wave when detected is proportional to 1/distance2. So the further away the event, the more seismic the source has to be, squared.

    In this regard, let's think about how much energy would be wasted by a warp drive that makes gravity waves that can be detected at interstellar (let alone intergalactic) ranges. Kind of a lot, maybe? The image that comes to my mind is a moped engine that generates noise at 200 decibels: most of the energy used by the engine is going into making the noise, rather than making the the moped go forward.

    I'm not an engineer, of course, but I'd hazard a guess that if a warp drive is feasible, it would waste as little energy as possible in the form of non-functional gravitational waves. That in turn would mean it would be detectable only at relatively short distances.

    Does that mean these waveforms weren't generated by artificial activity? No. Presumably, something could be waging war at interstellar scales, and making big things go boom-wobble as a result. While this might be a sign of extraterrestrial life, as with the general-ship that led during WW I, I hesitate to call it intelligence.

    353:

    Skimming that, it looks like they're saying they think it might be (at the most exotic) an interaction between "stars" a couple of hundred solar masses in size, made of gravitationally-bound particles with a mass of the order of 1e-13eV, (and if such things exist then they would only interact gravitationally so they would count as dark matter); or it might just be that the models they're using to distinguish interesting wiggles from random ones aren't up to it, so they don't really know.

    Me, I think it's a couple of galactic space pigeons having a scrap. (It being of course already well known in certain circles that so-called "dark matter" is actually giant invisible space pigeons several hundred light-years across.)

    354:

    FWIW Susan Calvin was a particular example I was thinking of when I wrote the post, and I was thinking it was about 1950 she first showed up :)

    355:

    OTOH there are odd bits of interviews with Doc Smith floating around where he says he couldn't handle doing the "romance" bits so he got Margaret Crane to do them, so how much of Dorothy Seaton is actually his own writing is not really clear.

    He does try to include capable women, but he pretty much always fucks it up horribly. He even has a whole planet inhabited entirely by women, and has them not understanding the concept of "love" on the grounds that there aren't any men.

    356:

    "why not WW1? Women did all sorts of jobs in WW1. Or at least they did in the UK."

    I'd put it down to something like the activation energy for destabilising a long and robustly established system having two humps; you could say that WW1 smashed the neck off the bottle and spilt a bit of the content, but it took WW2 to actually push the bottle over and spill lots of it. You see the same sort of thing with a lot of the changes in society during the 20th century, not just those relating to women - WW1 got things moving (or helped to), the next 20 years they were brewing up, then WW2 and the state of the participants after it got the mostly-latent changes to start to take actual shape.

    357:

    As an example of capable women in fiction, let alone a role model, Susan Calvin is terrible: misanthropic and socially dysfunctional. That is actually the standard depiction of male geeks (i.e. anyone with Aspergers) in fiction, too: ask how many works portray us as reasonably happily married, with children?

    Worse, it feeds into the belief that you can't have two people with full-time careers and children. That isn't helped by the number of other works that portray the only couples with both two full-time careers and children as being rich enough to employ nannies or similar. And a few 'modernist' works that portray it as no problem :-(

    I can witness that it is damn tough on both partners, but I can also witness that a lot of us do it.

    358:

    I can witness that it is damn tough on both partners, but I can also witness that a lot of us do it.

    If you mean a couple raising children. Yes. I/we did it also. And we gave up a lot of income choices to make it happen. We did NOT turn over the raising of our kids to strangers. Which many feel is a good thing to do.

    My sample size is small but I think my younger 30 somethings have turned out reasonably well. Unlike many of their contemporaries.

    359:

    As an example of capable women in fiction, let alone a role model, Susan Calvin is terrible: misanthropic and socially dysfunctional. That is actually the standard depiction of male geeks (i.e. anyone with Aspergers) in fiction, too

    Ugh. Never thought of it this way before, but you are right. Not only Susan Calvin is socially dysfunctional, she is not even a female Aspie. (I know many female Aspies, and they are nothing like Calvin.) She is very stereotypical MALE Aspie in a woman's body.

    Worse, it feeds into the belief that you can't have two people with full-time careers and children.

    Well, you CAN, as many couples demonstrate, but it is not healthy. For almost all of history people lived in extended families. What we call "nuclear family" is a product of industrial age, and completely unnatural.

    360:

    Your last paragraph is definitely true.

    361:

    Re: 'The Barbie movie is almost certainly going to be a complete head trip, insofar as Greta Gerwig seems to be leaning hard into the "let's blow this shit up" approach ...'

    That is one helluva a trailer - wonder how much they paid the '2001' studio for the rights to blatantly copy probably the most identifiable opening scene finale of any movie ever produced. Even so, I'm going to read the reviews before forking out any $$$ to see it.('Barbie' --- it'll take a lot to undo my childhood reaction, i.e., yewh!)

    If it's as good as the 2001 riff suggests, SNL will probably do a major skit on it and they're usually pretty good at picking out major plot/character issues. The SNL mention sorta ties in with the current blog topic, i.e., SNL mostly passes the Bechdel Test. SNL is one of the few comedy shows that has had a steady stream of female comedians in their regular cast who created interesting and memorable characters. And both the former female and male SNL comedians that eventually left SNL usually moved on to star in film/TV often carrying over some of their SNL-created personas into new roles.

    362:

    Strongly disagree. You just don't like movies with plots that are not Boom! every 10 min.

    Ever see "My Dinner With Andre", and did/would you feel the same about it?

    363:

    Well, since you ask, it's doing an energy-gravity conversion, and to use a non-scientific description, pulls in space from in front, and shoves it out the back, thereby not allowing the "bow wave" buildup that would increase the mass.

    364:

    Continuous creation... and a torus-shaped universe!

    365:

    They show up with Dick and Dottie quite happy. Reference, please, because I don't remember a planet of all women.

    366:

    Oh, no - at least a Klein bottle!

    367:

    Holy cow. I literally can't remember the last film I went to see in a cinema, but I might have to go to see that.

    368:

    Re: 'Continuous creation... and a torus-shaped universe!'

    Cover art by Gary Larson (The Far Side) would be apt - he had such a gift for succinctly tweaking the weird into the commonplace.

    369:

    Oh good grief. You just added 2+2 and got 234.

    You have no idea what kinds of movies I like. And while it may not be the same set of VENN diagrams as you that doesn't make either of us wrong.

    I really despise it when people claim to be able to read my mind.

    As to the kinds of movies I like. Based on your comments, you'd be very surprised. And it is a wide range of genre's.

    370:

    I thought 2001 was crap. Yes, I agree with the documentary aspect, but not with the well-made one; good documentaries have a better 'plot' and fewer WTF moments than it did. And the musak was ghastly, but that's now the norm.

    That may be heresy in this blog, but I stand by it.

    371:

    Sorry, I took what you said, and went where it seemed to lead. I said nothing about reading your mind.

    372:

    Charlie. Feorag, happy anniversary. I think I've said here before that I envy you that many years together.

    373:

    The planet of all women was Lyrane.

    More precisely, the males were about one in a hundred and were kept out of the way - all they could do was fight and breed.

    374:

    "As an example of capable women in fiction, let alone a role model, Susan Calvin is terrible: misanthropic and socially dysfunctional."

    Sure, as a character she's awful. But she is also definitely a well-known and prominent example of a female character who steps in to sort things out when the male characters can't handle it, from a time when habit and expectations had things overwhelmingly the other way round.

    Perhaps also it might have seemed more natural to the readership of the time for it to be a Dragon Schoolmarm type (level: laser-eyed flesh-eating) who was doing that sort of thing. After all, they might not like the character, but everyone can surely remember being in the position of Nestor 10.

    375:

    Re: '... good documentaries have a better 'plot' and fewer WTF moments'

    Yes and I think that was the point: alien intelligence whether human-made (HAL) or extraterrestrial (The Sentinel) may be unknowable, therefore unpredictable (unplotable).

    In some ways this ties back to the previous blog (alien-human love): until we have a better understanding of how we operate, we can't really make any predictions of how we'll interoperate with other entities, organic or otherwise.

    376:

    I'm not an engineer, of course, but I'd hazard a guess that if a warp drive is feasible, it would waste as little energy as possible in the form of non-functional gravitational waves. That in turn would mean it would be detectable only at relatively short distances.

    Well, yeah, usually. Unless the ship doesn't see that star/planet in the way. Then the warp drive has a RUD moment and we "hear" a the pin drop...

    377:

    Re: SF Movies: My wife and I just saw Wes Anderson's "Asteroid City". Vaguely SFfy- alien 1st contact in 1955.
    Goofy, silly, funny with the babbliest technobabble I've ever heard blabbed. Don't know if any of you like Wes Anderson, but I think it's one of his best.

    Movie Details & Credits Focus Features | Release Date: June 16, 2023 | R Starring: Adrien Brody, Anthony Quinonez, Bryan Cranston, Edward Norton, Fisher Stevens, Hong Chau, Hope Davis, Jeff Goldblum, Margot Robbie, Maya Hawke, Rupert Friend, Scarlett Johansson, Sophia Lillis, Steve Carell, Tilda Swinton, Tom Hanks, Willem Dafoe

    Summary: In a fictional American desert town circa 1955, the itinerary of a Junior Stargazer/Space Cadet convention (organized to bring together students and parents from across the country for fellowship and scholarly competition) is spectacularly disrupted by world-changing events.

    ................

    Useful tools for deciding what to watch (and other things): Metacritic (https://www.metacritic.com/)- Rotten Tomatoes (https://www.rottentomatoes.com) is good, too; I prefer Metacritic.

    Movielens (https://movielens.org/)- It helps you to decide what you might like/don't like based on what you've already seen. It works pretty well for me...

    378:

    I really despise it when people claim to be able to read my mind.

    I knew you were going to say that.

    (Sorry, couldn't resist).

    379:

    @ 365: Lyrane! (As Davros says.) Technically men existed, but only about 1 in 100 births was male, and they were brainless runts kept in a san and used exclusively as expendable sperm donors for reasons of pure reproductive necessity. This was congruent with the Boskonian philosophy that sex implied weakness; the Lyranians, being about as close to sexless as is possible for a mammalian species, were therefore ideal recruits. (The same is said to be true of the Kalonians, who were a male version of the same thing, but we know no more of them than that.)

    Doc Smith has this recurrent idea that anything like "love" - not just the sexual aspects of love, but any kind of fellow feeling; and not just love, but any vaguely love-adjacent concepts like appreciation of beauty in nature or art or music - can exist for a species only as a consequence of that species reproducing by a means not merely genetically sexual, but intimately sexual. Therefore any species which does not reproduce in such a manner must necessarily not have a clue about what things like love or beauty even could mean, but does have a general disposition like a tiger with toothache. He expounds this in several books; the Lyranians are the most developed example, but IIRC the Fenachrone are a male version of it, and some of his non-series works have examples too.

    @ 363, 364: The anti-wake-field! (Note: not a South Yorkshire civic improvement programme using the strong force.) A toroidal field - with a toroidal spaceship inside it - which pulls in the "bow wave" buildup of space from in front of it, compresses it through the hole in the middle, and squirts it out the other side, giving a propulsive effect! Research currently in progress to improve the efficiency by figuring out a stable way to deform the cross-section of the toroidal field so it looks like a de Laval nozzle.

    And as a bonus, flight in atmosphere can be achieved as a side-effect of all the hand-waving required to make this work.

    380:

    "I'd hazard a guess that if a warp drive is feasible, it would waste as little energy as possible in the form of non-functional gravitational waves. That in turn would mean it would be detectable only at relatively short distances."

    Do we have any submarine designers among the postership?

    381:

    Unless the ship doesn't see that star/planet in the way.

    Much as car windscreens are used to sample insect populations (destructively!) presumably warp drives work the same way for sampling everything from interstellar hydrogen to, well, intrastellar hydrogen.

    382:

    The anti-wake-field!

    Does this mean US Republicans are about to depart the planet at great speed?

    383:

    I said nothing about reading your mind.

    You made a big leap about what kinds of movies I want to watch. Based on one simple statement. That was mind reading to me.

    I really try and avoid making such leaps with others due to the number of times people have attributed things to me that were just not true by, as I said, adding 2+2 and getting something way past 4.

    384:

    I knew you were going to say that.

    In the US back 20 years or so ago, pay per minute phone numbers were a thing. And were dominated by sex talk and fortune telling. One of the big ones had the singer Dionne Warwick shilling for the "Psychic Friends Network". In a year or so it went bankrupt.

    A comedian did a great bit that was basically "You would think they would have seen it coming."

    385:

    "Does this mean US Republicans are about to depart the planet at great speed?"
    One can only hope so...

    386:

    Actually warp might get weirder. I played with the idea quite a bit before I got disgusted with making billionaires into spacefaring conquistadors.

    Some of the second generation warp theories basically build a bubble around the ship and send it screaming into the void, more or less unconnected to the rest of the universe.

    The problem is that a ship in a bubble can’t shed heat. So it has to spend a fair amount of the trip outside warp, cooling down to interstellar space by radiation.

    So while it’s in warp, it’ll probably pass right through things without affecting them much. Interstellar space is, with trivial exceptions, high test vacuum, so there’s not much macroscopic stuff to hit anyway. The problems with warp drives, assuming they’re possible (hah!), are likely things like heat management, getting the ship aimed extremely precisely, (can’t steer in warp, only aim going in), and going fast enough under warp to make it possible to get somewhere useful before every canned ape being shipped reaches their expiration date.

    387:

    John Ringo (in later collaboration with Travis S Taylor) examines this idea in the "Looking Glass" series (summaries on Wikipedia).

    388:

    »Having a dark sense of humour,«

    Want a light sense of humour instead ?

    Try this for a head-bending theory:

    "Gravity is caused by the emission (and absorption?) of photons."

    389:

    The question that comes to my mind is "What LIGO signature would a warp drive starship generate?"

    This is critical to the novel Life Probe by Michael McCollum.

    The titular probe is built by distant aliens who’d developed marvelous technology, but not FTL, and had finally decided that to understand the universe they were going to need help. The galaxy is big so they’d need to send robots, and they’d need a lot of robots because they intended to talk to everybody.

    The unit that noticed the Sol system is still in the outer solar system, happily setting up for what should be by life probe standards a completely routine first contact, when the hyperwake detector goes off. Someone, only a few dozen lightyears away, had an FTL starship! This changes the life probe’s mission, much the same way Apollo 13 changed plans abruptly. Drama ensues.

    390:

    basically build a bubble around the ship and send it screaming into the void

    You could call the bubble a "nutshell" and the contents... never mind.

    I like the idea of solving the Alcubierre drive problem of needing very dense anti-mass by using the repulsive nature of the far right as a substitute. As always the first ship to leave is the B ark...

    391:

    Elderly Cynic @ 357: As an example of capable women in fiction, let alone a role model, Susan Calvin is terrible

    Yes, but getting back to the original point, how many conversations does she have with other women? (This being Asimov I'll take it as read that they aren't about men). My memory of the Robots stories is that pretty much all the other characters, robots included, were male.

    Thinking about Friday by Heinlein, she has several conversations with other women about a wide variety of topics, including one mercenary sergeant. So Heinlein seems to have noticed and avoided the "default male" thing at that point in his career.

    I'm struggling to recall any major female characters in Clarke. There were occasional wives and love interests. One short story had a female protagonist; the wife of an astronaut who was locked in social status battles with the wife of one of his colleagues. Their conversations were about social status symbols rather than men. But that's all I can remember right now.

    392:

    If I recall, later novels such as the Songs of Distant Earth had some. But something you are missing is that Heinlein was writing 'political' novels and Clarke was not - so such things reflected the situation of his day. You may reasonably criticise him for not moving fast enough with the times, or suffering a failure of (social) imagination, but Heinlein can be more severely criticised for other defects in his societies, INCLUDING his portrayal of women.

    The point is that there is a major difference between works that airbrush women's roles out of the picture or distort them from those that merely reflect the society they were written in and about. Let us assume the Bechdel test is replaced by a reasonable one (see #19, again). It is a political position to expect works to be 'better' than the society they reflect.

    393:

    My memory of the Robots stories is that pretty much all the other characters, robots included, were male.

    Life in most of the world in which he and other SF writers lived was a male world. While they were good at thinking outside of many of the mental boxes in their lives, this is one area where many just didn't realize there even was a box.

    Harking back to some earlier comments, in the US after WWII, the women were told thanks, now you cen (WILL) go back to the rolls God designed for you and let the men folk get back to their God ordained rolls in running things. Thanks. Good bye. And shut up. (They didn't.)

    Heinlein

    Agree with his politics and plots or not. He DID tend to have women as more than props for the guys in the stories. For the times he lived in at least.

    This is one of the biggest things about the US TV series "Mad Men". It did a great job of capturing the way women of the 60s where treated. Obliviously by most men. And it wasn't pretty.

    395:

    "The problems with warp drives, assuming they're possible (hah!), are likely things like heat management, getting the ship aimed extremely precisely, (can't steer in warp, only aim going in)..."

    The handwave I came up with for heat disposal was to say that the gravitational field strength inside the bubble due to the warp field was zero in the centre, where the ship was, but increased exponentially as you approached the inside surface. So from the point of view of an observer in the ship, the closer the photons emitted from the ship got to the inside surface, the slower they went, so they never actually got there. Like falling into a black hole, only inside out. Instead you'd get them all accumulating in a layer just short of the inside surface, and then they'd all carry on outwards when you turned the field off.

    To stop things getting too easy and provide some extra complications to hang bits of plot off, if you let the layer of slowed photons carry on accumulating too long, irregularities in the density of the mass equivalent of the accumulated energy close to the surface would destabilise the field, and when the resulting chaotic distortions converge back on the ship, being torn apart by tidal forces is much less of a worry than the chance of not being torn apart by tidal forces. So you'd have to stop every now and then to let it out. The closer the ship is to a perfect isotropic radiator, the longer the intervals can be (indefinite if it actually was perfect, but of course it never will be).

    These periodic hiatuses would allow you to check your position so you didn't have to aim with implausible precision, but you had the constraint that you could only come out of warp somewhere the gravitational potential was the same as where you went in. If there's too much difference in energy levels it either doesn't work or it cooks you. So instead of the "landscape" you're navigating through being an arrangement of stars and planets which always looks the same, you're "looking" at an arrangement of equipotential surfaces which looks different every time depending on what potential you're at when you go in. You have some limited, short-range ability to "see" it from within warp by looking at the error signals in the stabiliser department of the field generators, but you can't rely on that for much more than telling whether or not it is safe to come out, and nearly everything has to be calculated from outside in advance.

    You still end up doing a lot of messing around climbing away from stars on reaction drive to get to a level that'll allow you to get out again somewhere useful. So you get planets which are a few thousand light years away but are still quicker to get to than ones which are only 50 light years away but closer to/farther from their sun, or have a much more/less massive sun, etc; and there is a lot more travel along the spiral arms than radially towards/away from the centre of the galaxy. Also, you need to be sure you've done your equipotential calculations right to make sure that you'll get somewhere you can get out before you have to dump heat, or else you're fucked; and there are plenty of other ways to cock things up along the same lines.

    396:

    "(They didn't.)"

    Exactly.

    397:

    Rocketpjs @ 324:

    As a sports coach and parent I have usually formulated guidance as 'don't do what you don't want others to do', shortened to 'don't be a dick' where appropriate.

    I understand what you MEAN, and agree whole-heartedly, but I do have to point out "don't be a dick" is technically only applicable to slightly less than half of the human race. I prefer the more inclusive don't be an asshole! ... and I'd still prefer some more positive way of stating it; guidance toward spiritual growth, rather than limits on such.

    I just find "Love thy neighbor as you love yourself" a whole lot more USEFUL guidance than "Thou shall not kill", even though both are good rules to follow.

    398:

    RE: Star Wars ...

    Just out of curiosity, am I the only one commenting here who saw the Flash Gordon & Buck Rogers serials that Star Wars paid homage to IN A THEATER (on consecutive Saturday mornings)?

    They were still being shown in a local theater where I was growing up in the 1950s (Durham, NC) ... an episode every week, along with a feature film (western or action adventure).

    Mom could drop the kids off for the morning and have half a day shopping downtown without having to drag cranky kids around. This was back before shopping centers became a thing later in the 50s & early 60s.

    399:

    You're definitely showing your age.

    TCM is currently running a 1948 Batman series. Production values would not even pass for a teen school play these days. The costumes are really bad. I DVR and half watch it every week.

    The big plots up through episode 3 are a generic remote control device that can commander a plane or car remotely and a new oh wow super big high explosive. Each episode is 15 minutes or so. Each ending on a cliff hanger plot.

    I'm going to miss TCM when I drop cable TV. Oh, well.

    400:

    Dave Lester @ 340:

    OK, we are now well past post #300, so for all you hard science SciFi fanatics, here's the latest science news.

    We've (probably) detected intelligent life.

    Some of you may recall I drew attention to an odd LIGO gravitational wave detection last year: S200114f. This was distinctive in that it was very short (milliseconds) duration with high frequency (100's Hz). To me it looked like an impulse -- something like the waveform you get when a drum is hit just once.

    Well, what do we find in LIGO's O4 observations, which began in late May 2023? Six further similar observations! So S200114f is not an anomaly, but a regular occurrence. And I think this means we can probably discount one suggested explanation: a head-on blackhole collision (instead of the usual inspiralling collision).

    For those interested, all detections are listed here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_gravitational_wave_observations

    Thoughts anyone?

    https://youtu.be/yq4uCWtQE24?t=160

    401:

    My memory of the Robots stories is that pretty much all the other characters, robots included, were male.

    I know some people who’ve written a long series about ‘The Copper Colored Cupids,’ robots who were built by a (female) mad scientist, given vague instructions, and left unsupervised. (Yes, it goes exactly how you’d expect.) They can and do build new Cupids, but whether by social inertia or lack of imagination they use masculine pronouns until nearly 200 robots in one of them declares that she’s female. She also comes out of the factory physically identical to every other robot of her model, so the difference is purely social.

    Discovering a new gender doesn't cause the other robots much fuss. To be sure, pretty much every AI in the series is at least quirky and some are very peculiar; using rare pronouns is not particularly weird by their standards.

    402:

    Ah! Thanks, I'd forgotten about it.

    On the other hand, folks criticizing his handling of women in general... Let's see, he had the very first starship out of the solar system, he's writing from 1919, and the books Lyrane's mentioned in came out in 1953. Gee. Is this a case where he's being criticized for being a person of his age, and his society, and not having a post-1980 viewpoint?

    403:

    Going back thirty years.... On alt.pagan, around 30 years ago, we decided that Real Psychics call you, and tell you your credit card number.

    404:

    SFReader @ 361:

    Re: 'The Barbie movie is almost certainly going to be a complete head trip, insofar as Greta Gerwig seems to be leaning hard into the "let's blow this shit up" approach ...'

    That is one helluva a trailer - wonder how much they paid the '2001' studio for the rights to blatantly copy probably the most identifiable opening scene finale of any movie ever produced. Even so, I'm going to read the reviews before forking out any $$$ to see it.('Barbie' --- it'll take a lot to undo my childhood reaction, i.e., yewh!)

    If it's as good as the 2001 riff suggests, SNL will probably do a major skit on it and they're usually pretty good at picking out major plot/character issues. The SNL mention sorta ties in with the current blog topic, i.e., SNL mostly passes the Bechdel Test. SNL is one of the few comedy shows that has had a steady stream of female comedians in their regular cast who created interesting and memorable characters. And both the former female and male SNL comedians that eventually left SNL usually moved on to star in film/TV often carrying over some of their SNL-created personas into new roles.

    I don't go out to the movies much anymore. The one with the $2 matinees got torn down & I don't have anyone to go with me to see a movie in a REAL theater that makes it worth paying those prices.

    Just checked & it's going to be at the Alamo Drafthouse here in Raleigh, so I might bestir myself even if I do have to go alone ... otherwise I wait for it to come out on DVD.

    That said, there are a couple of moments in the trailers (I think there are two besides the "2001" teaser) that suggest it's a bit more subtle than just merchandising - a scene where Barbie is confronted with a bevy of tween girls who tell her flat out they "haven't played with Barbie since we were, like, five years old" ...

    And another scene with an old woman who may represent Ruth Handler, who says "humans only have one ending ... ideas live forever". Very profound.

    I found the song from the trailer on YouTube & it's "got a nice beat ... and it's easy to dance to" 🙃

    405:

    waldo @ 367:

    Holy cow. I literally can't remember the last film I went to see in a cinema, but I might have to go to see that.

    Mine was "Yesterday"

    406:

    I don't go out to the movies much anymore. The one with the $2 matinees got torn down & I don't have anyone to go with me to see a movie in a REAL theater that makes it worth paying those prices.

    My wife & I do not bother with going too often, but occasionally there is movie worth seeing on the big screen. We go to the local Regal movie theater (here's hoping they don't go completely bankrupt) on Tuesdays, which are discount days if you are a Regal Crown club member (you get points, and can redeem them for things). I see on the regmovies.com site that there are two Regal theaters in Raleigh that participate, one is $5 and the other is $5.95. We also get 1/2 price popcorn (and with the free refill, the price per pound isn't completely outrageous) at ours. They may also have senior discounts. Anyway, we usually both get to see a movie for less than $20, and most Regals have those nice big reclining seats. They are usually assigned seating as well, so you can look on the website and see how crowded a particular showing is before going (you still need to buy your ticket at the theater for the discount).

    407:

    Well, the most recent movie I saw in a cinema was "Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves", just a few months ago.

    But the second most recent movie I saw in a regular[1] cinema was "Ready Player One" in 2018.

    And I am definitely watching "Barbie". In fact, my wife demanded we see it together. (She was with me for the other two also)

    [1] Disregarding the local art house where the movie theater comes with couches and a wine bar

    408:

    After WWII "you will go home", um, that may have been true for someone in the middle class. Working class, hadn't been true forever. Clerks, secretaries were mostly women (like my mother).

    409:

    You don't need FTL for a vast galactic space opera.

    The best solution isn't to go faster but to make time go "slower".

    Alastair Reynolds' "House of Suns" does this well by assuming three techs:

  • Biological immortality so that a journey of 10,000s years is a trivial fraction of a crewman's lifetime.

  • Effective hibernation/stasis so that a crewman can "sleep" unchanged for millennia while awaiting a rendezvous with another ship.

  • Engines that can go near c so that time dilation causes the crew to experience only a few weeks of relative time during a journey of a thousand years.

  • As a result, time isn't measured by Earth standard years but by cycles, the amount of time it takes Sol to orbit the galactic center.

    And thousands of actual years could pass before you see your family again but only a few months might have passed from everyone's relative point of view.

    So you could have Capt. Kirk and the Enterprise - but next week's episode would take place 3,000 years later.

    410:

    Sorry, they weren't in the theaters when I was a kid. A few years later, they were on TV, though.

    411:

    "Vst galactic space opera". One thing in my future universe is no empires (except maybe on a planet here or there). And no, nothing that vaguely covers the entire galaxy.

    412:

    Minor nit: In "House of Suns" a cycle is not the Sol's orbit around Milky Way (250 million years), but the approximate time it take for a relativistic starship to circle the galaxy (200,000 years). IIRC, at one point one of the characters comments how in the entire 6 million years which had passed since the origin of interstellar flight, the Sol has not moved even a tenth of its orbit.

    Not that Sol and Solar System (referred to as "Old Place") are of much importance in this setting.

    413:

    Clerks, secretaries were mostly women (like my mother).

    I was thinking of the factory workers. You know. The ones with "real" jobs. GDRFC

    414:

    Engines that can go near c so that time dilation causes the crew to experience only a few weeks of relative time during a journey of a thousand years.

    That's challenging, because the relativistic parameter γ that characterizes time dilation also shows up in the relativistic kinetic energy, KER = (γ-1)mc2.

    So by the time you're getting a time dilation of two, at 0.87c, you need the rest mass energy of the spaceship to get it there. At significantly higher speeds you can neglect the -1 in the parentheses, so if you need a time dilation of, say, 1000, it needs a thousand times the rest mass energy of the vessel to go that fast.

    415:

    I see on the regmovies.com site that there are two Regal theaters in Raleigh that participate, one is $5 and the other is $5.95.

    I think John is now one town over(north) so a bit of a hike (or drive) for him. But one is a 15 minutes walk for me. I'll check it out.

    My wife and I were there for the Pandora water movie. [thin plot but it did look good on a big screen] First "go to a movie" in 3 years. Seats are so nice you have to work to stay awake. I'll check out the club and maybe we'll start going again. We need to walk more. And there's a Ben & Jerry's in the plaza. Plus a fantastic BBQ joint. (The mall is one of those newer ones where all the stores and restaurants open to a sidewalk.) There was a $2 or $3 movie theater not far from our Dallas apartment and we did a lot of "date" nights there. But that's now an 1100 mile trip. [grin]

    Now that our primary TV is 65" of 4K high def premium model, the attraction of the big screen is less and less. Plus Foundation season 2 starts in a few weeks.

    416:

    so if you need a time dilation of, say, 1000, it needs a thousand times the rest mass energy of the vessel to go that fast.

    Easily solved with an application of "handwavium" plus a reversal of the polarity at over 0.5C.

    417:

    I am fairly sure nothing in "House of Suns" has tau factor of 1000. Maybe 10, tops. Their true ace in the hole is biological immortality, plus stasis.

    418:

    You just don't like movies with plots that are not Boom! every 10 min.

    I guess you mean these.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whfMMfR4KKw

    Clip from a Stargate episode. Strong parody here.

    419:

    Huh. That must have been in a season I haven't seen (I really should finish watching the entire 10-season DVD set I got). Don't recognize half the people, nor the uniforms.

    420:

    And almost all such plots are crap. How many human societies have lasted longer than a few hundred years? We speculate that a few 'primitive' ones may have, but (a) we have no good evidence, (b) that merely makes it a few thousand and (c) the plots aren't about such societies. Immortality isn't even a cop-out, because that would change society so drastically that it would be hard to describe - even if it were plausible, which it isn't, not even compared to FTL transport.

    421:

    Moz @ 382:

    The anti-wake-field!

    Does this mean US Republicans are about to depart the planet at great speed?

    For some reason I read "anti-wake-field" and didn't get republiQans ... I got this guy instead:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wFag3o10wg

    422:

    Post 300 comments...

    I have seen the future and it is Canada.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-06-18/canada-s-immigration-policies-may-boost-its-labor-market-economy

    Mass Immigration Experiment Gives Canada an Edge in Global Race for Labor The country’s population growth is among the fastest in the world, bolstering the economy while creating strains in big cities.

    A country about as populous as California has added more than all the residents in San Francisco in a year. Last week, Canada surpassed 40 million people for the first time ever — with growth only expected to continue at a rapid pace as it welcomes more immigrant workers, refugees and foreign students across its borders.

    The Trudeau administration has set a target of adding about half a million permanent residents each year. Last year, foreign students, temporary workers and refugees made up another group that’s even larger, bringing total arrivals to a record one million. The inflow pushed Canada’s annual population growth rate to 2.7%, the fastest pace among advanced economies and rivaling developing nations Burkina Faso, Burundi and Sudan.

    Nearly one in four people in Canada are now immigrants, the largest proportion among the Group of Seven nations. At the current pace of growth, the smallest G-7 country by population would double its residents in about 26 years, and surpass Italy, France, the UK and Germany by 2050.

    The looming threats of an aging population — leading to dwindling tax revenue and shrinking budgets — are playing out in different ways around the world. France’s plan to raise the retirement age by two years to 64 led to nationwide protests. Germany risks having 5 million fewer workers by the end of the decade, and already is struggling with strains in its industrial-heavy economy. Japan, where the government has long resisted immigration, is facing acute labor shortages, a rapid population decline, and dying rural towns.

    “You have to realize that if you don’t embrace immigration, there are whole hosts of social and economic consequences that will impact your community negatively,” Sean Fraser, Canada’s immigration minister, said in an interview. “The ability to successfully integrate people in large numbers doesn’t demand that you welcome fewer people, it demands that you advance smart immigration policies.”

    423:

    The looming threats of an aging population — leading to dwindling tax revenue and shrinking budgets — are playing out in different ways around the world.

    And here's a recent article from the Washington Post. Put in the year you were born and watch what happens as you age.

    No immigration will just not work. At all.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2023/aging-america-retirees-workforce-economy/

    This page does cute things so without java scrip enabled it may not do much.

    As to the French protests, I'd call them more like riots.

    424:

    Clip from a Stargate episode. Strong parody here.

    Best episode, ever. (especially if you watched lots of sci-fi growing up :)

    425:

    Naw. The one where Jackson came back, they did a Star Wars parody plus there was the early scene where O'Neil talked about Teal' being a character in a TV show. Everyone stayed mostly cool with what seemed to be a few biting their cheeks and the left it in the production cut.

    426:

    David L @ 415:

    I see on the regmovies.com site that there are two Regal theaters in Raleigh that participate, one is $5 and the other is $5.95.

    I think John is now one town over(north) so a bit of a hike (or drive) for him. But one is a 15 minutes walk for me. I'll check it out.

    I'm only about 10 miles north of the Beltline - either Alamo Draft House Cinema or Regal North Hills shows as 13 miles from my new home, so that's not a problem. The $2 matinee thing was only because I was going to the movies alone, so cheap tickets made sense.

    The lack of companions to SHARE the movie experience (and the concert experience, [legit] theater experience, ballet, art exhibitions ...) IS more of an impediment.

    I've been married and after SHE ran off, I used to have a girlfriend ... a couple of them in fact (not overlapping in time) ... and after that I had a few casual women acquaintences who shared my taste in music, art & cinema ... but they've all faded away in the last decade or so (married, moved away, ... LIFE!) and now I have no one to go to a movie with me.

    Shit happens, and things don't always work out the way we'd like them to.

    My wife and I were there for the Pandora water movie. [thin plot but it did look good on a big screen] First "go to a movie" in 3 years. Seats are so nice you have to work to stay awake. I'll check out the club and maybe we'll start going again. We need to walk more. And there's a Ben & Jerry's in the plaza. Plus a fantastic BBQ joint. (The mall is one of those newer ones where all the stores and restaurants open to a sidewalk.) There was a $2 or $3 movie theater not far from our Dallas apartment and we did a lot of "date" nights there. But that's now an 1100 mile trip. [grin]

    Now that our primary TV is 65" of 4K high def premium model, the attraction of the big screen is less and less. Plus Foundation season 2 starts in a few weeks.

    I'm still gonna' get a TV now that I have the TV/Internet/Phone cable bundle. Turned out having cable internet here at the new house cost less WITH the TV bundled in than Internet & Phone alone would cost. But I've still got a hell of a lot of unpacking to do before I can even really think where I'm gonna' put a TV.

    I'm thinking about a 65" 4K, because that's the largest I have space to wall mount ... but that would put the TV 25' from the couch & 65" may not be large enough at that distance.

    So I may have to get a TV stand of some sort & put it halfway across the room and make some other kind of social space between it and the far wall ... maybe set up a circle of chairs and invite my old folk music circle over to play.

    I want to do that anyway. I think that's my best option right now for reconnecting with PEOPLE.

    427:

    So by the time you're getting a time dilation of two, at 0.87c, you need the rest mass energy of the spaceship to get it there.

    And it bears repeating that the rest mass of 1kg of stuff is a little bit more than 21 megatons of explosive power, so that's 10Mt of blast per kilogram of starship, 10Gt per tonne, and a starship as massive as the ISS would release as much energy as roughly 4000 gigatons of TNT, so about 500 third world wars (mid-1980s class).

    (The Chicxulub impactor released on the order of 100,000 gigatons, which we'd get to with a 10,000 tonne starship traveling at 87% of c.)

    428:

    Re: 'How many human societies have lasted longer than a few hundred years?'

    If you consider 'religion' a type of society, then several societies have lasted over a thousand years. They change/adapt, but continue.

    Re: Asimov, Heinlein, etc.

    Not sure their characters were entirely as they personally intended. I've only read a little about John W. Campbell but apparently he had tremendous influence/clout on SF publishing.

    429:

    Since we are past 300, I have to mention this morbid but very informative description of how exactly "Titan" passengers had died:

    They ceased to be biology and became physics

    430:

    How many human societies have lasted longer than a few hundred years? We speculate that a few 'primitive' ones may have

    Your problem with "a few" is that successful ones are by definition going to be scarce. For example, how would you count Pharaonic Egypt? By the dynasty, or as a single continuous whole, or era of the dual crown vs. separate upper and lower dynasties, or ...?

    What seems to happen is that some societies oscillate between two or a handful of states, eg. China between the unified strong central empire and the "warring states" period, which have alternated several times over a period of thousands of years.

    And I speculate that this is the normal condition for low technology (anything pre-industrial revolution) and low energy societies. They have a stable form during periods of climate/agricultural stability, and different shapes (probably smaller/atomized) for surviving periods of instability, but they generally revert to the most high populous state they can sustain when conditions are amenable.

    431:

    I see no link.

    However, I note in passing that historically, when a military submarine went down hard (so that there was a hull rupture and flooding) the water came in so fast that there was a piston effect, which compressed the air in the not-yet-flooded compartment so hard that it heated up and effectively turned the sub into a diesel cylinder, with the crew as combustible organic matter. They were flash-incinerated before they had time to drown.

    At the depth the Titan imploded the water pressure was still about an order of magnitude too low for a pinhole leak to turn into the sort of water knife you use for cutting sheet steel ... but it'd certainly slice through any meat and bone unlucky enough to be in front of it.

    It's a minor mercy, but they probably died so fast their nervous systems couldn't propagate the pain signals into their brain ahead of the shockwave.

    432:

    Last movie?
    Dune 1
    Next movie?
    Dune 2
    - probably because it's fairly close to the original & an actual Herbert ( like Frank's son ) is heavily involved.

    DP @ 422
    The exact opposite, in fact of what the "New Conservatives" { = Old Fascists } want for us.
    As an Huguenot, they can fuck right off, right now.

    433:

    Re: 'TV stand ... invite my old folk music circle over to play.'

    Based on personal experience (i.e., n of 1) ...

    Seems the TV manufacturers have been concentrating so hard on getting the 'video' right that they not just overlooked but trashed the 'audio' on this generation's A/V devices. So you might consider buying/connecting a couple of decent speakers.

    434:

    When I splurged on a new AV system (back when BluRay players were fairly new) I spent more on the audio setup than I did on the TV screen. 5.1 surround sound, with a good frequency response on the main speakers so I could also play my CD collection. Made a huge difference.

    For most movies stereo is fine, but for some the extra speakers make a real difference as you hear things off-camera…

    435:

    "Is this a case where he's being criticized for being a person of his age, and his society, and not having a post-1980 viewpoint?"

    No, the particular characteristic I cited - the contention that any species which does not reproduce via sexual intimacy must necessarily be entirely unable to comprehend any form of love or aesthetic appreciation - is not AFAICT an expression of an idea significantly represented in the society of his "era", but of a personal idiosyncrasy. I've only very rarely seen any other examples of it, and the only example of which I have any confidence in the memory is John W Campbell writing bad knockoffs of EES.

    436:

    Re: 'I spent more on the audio setup than I did on the TV screen ...'

    Same here! It also makes a h-u-g-e difference in being able to understand dialogue not just in movies but TV shows.

    Pass/Fail ... gov't

    I was looking for a summary of the UK gov't response to various stuff when I found this site. Very interesting ...

    https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/127/public-accounts-committee/

    Looks like the current gov't is overdue in its response to the report below.

    'Managing tax compliance following the pandemic'

    I can't find the report and it's probably a real page-turner!

    437:

    Your problem with "a few" is that successful ones are by definition going to be scarce

    There's also a lot of n=1 based analysis going on. "the normal course of post-industrial-revolution..."

    It's great filter territory rather than an opportunity to spot patterns. Pareidolia anyone?

    438:

    As AI-generated content increasingly pervades the internet, scraping it for data to train new generations becomes increasingly fraught.

    In our latest paper, we show that using model-generated content in training causes irreversible defects. The tails of the original content distribution disappear. Within a few generations, text becomes garbage, as Gaussian distributions converge and may even become delta functions. We call this effect model collapse.

    https://www.lightbluetouchpaper.org/2023/06/06/will-gpt-models-choke-on-their-own-exhaust/

    Via https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2023/07/class-action-lawsuit-for-scraping-data-without-permission.html

    439:

    Re: Movies: IMHO, most "human-scale" movies can be enjoyed at home. (I draw the line though at watching them on laptops or phones, though many people seem to like doing that.) "Big" movies (like "Aquatar" and "Maverick") are best in a theater, though the above-mentioned 65", 4k TV (if it has good sound) could make up for that. (A few years ago, I met a guy who had what I referred to as "God's Home Theater"- he went all out....) .....................................................................

    SF Series Premiering/Returning 4/1- 8/23 (From Metacritic- https://www.metacritic.com/feature/tv-premiere-dates0)

    8/23
    Invasion Sci-fi/Drama Apple TV+

    Star Wars: Ahsoka Sci-fi/Drama Disney+ Rosario Dawson once again stars as the live-action Ahsoka Tano—a one-time Jedi Knight who first appeared as Anakin Skywalker's teen apprentice in various animated Star Wars properties beginning with the 2008 film Star Wars: The Clone Wars and later, as an adult (played by Dawson), appeared in multiple live-action Star Wars TV shows—in Disney's latest Mandalorian spinoff. Set during the post-Empire period (i.e., after Return of the Jedi), Ahoska also serves as a sequel to the animated series Star Wars Rebels and finds the title character investigating a new threat to the galaxy. Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Natasha Liu Bordizzo, and the late Ray Stevenson also star, while Hayden Christensen returns as Anakin Skywalker, David Tennant is back from Clone Wars to voice the droid Huyang, and Lars Mikkelsen again plays returning Rebels character Grand Admiral Thrawn.

    7/24
    Futurama Animation/Comedy/Sci-fi Hulu
    Returning (on a new network) with its first new season in a decade, the animated sci-fi comedy from Matt Groening and David X. Cohen has reunited its entire voice cast—including one-time holdout John DiMaggio (who plays Bender)—for 10 new episodes, which will arrive weekly on Mondays. Guests this season include the late rapper Coolio. Need to catch up? Hulu also has the full Futurama library dating back to its 1999 premiere.

    7/14
    Foundation Sci-fi/Drama Apple TV+ Ben Daniels and Isabella Laughland are among the new cast members for season 2, which takes place over a century after the previous season

    7/5
    Kizazi Moto: Generation Fire Animation/Anthology/Sci-fi Disney+

    6/30
    Nimona Animation/Sci-fi/Fantasy Netflix Chloë Grace Moretz, Riz Ahmed, Frances Conroy, Beck Bennett, Julio Torres, Lorraine Toussaint, Indya Moore, and RuPaul provide voices for Netflix's feature adaptation of the award-winning graphic novel by ND Stevenson.

    6/16
    Outlander Drama/Sci-fi Starz The penultimate seventh season will be divided in two eight-episode parts, with the second half of the season due in early 2024.

    6/15
    Black Mirror Anthology/Drama/Sci-fi Netflix The sixth season of Netflix's popular sci-fi-ish anthology series (which last aired in 2019) consists of five new episodes, all written by series creator Charlie Brooker. (That may seem short, but it's actually two episodes longer than the prior season.) Stars confirmed for the new season include Aaron Paul, Zazie Beetz, Salma Hayek, Michael Cera, Josh Hartnett, Annie Murphy, Kate Mara, Rob Delaney, and Paapa Essiedu. Two episodes will be set in the past—specifically 1979 and an alternate-history 1969—while several deal with stardom, including one episode in which an average woman is shocked to discover that a streaming service has adapted her life story into a new TV drama and that Salma Hayek is playing her.

    93/100 (YAY! –kh) Star Trek: Strange New Worlds Drama/Sci-fi Paramount+ The well-received spinoff's second season will add Paul Wesley's James T. Kirk as a regular (and Carol Kane in a new role) and will also, later in the season, feature a hybrid animation/live-action episode that crosses over with characters from Star Trek: Lower Decks.

    6/4 73/100 The Lazarus Project Drama/Sci-fi TNT Rescheduled from January. A rare scripted newcomer from the recently downsized TNT—and it's an acquisition from the UK rather than an original production—this eight-hour series follows a secretive organization that has the ability to send the world back in time whenever the planet is faced with an existential threat, leaving only a handful of people to remember the events thus erased. Paapa Essiedu (I May Destroy You) stars alongside Tom Burke, Anjli Mohindra, and Caroline Quentin. Production on a second season is now underway in the UK, though it is unclear if TNT has already committed to carrying it.

    5/12
    73/100 Black Knight Foreign/Drama/Sci-fi Netflix In post-apocalypse Korea where deliverymen known as Black Knights deliver oxygen and other essentials, 5-8 (Kim Woo-bin) trains refugee Sa-wol (Kang Yoo-seok) how to become one in this adaptation of the webtoon series of the same name. (From the trailer, I get a little bit of a South Korean Cyberpunk "Postman" feel. -kh)

    65/100 Crater
    Sci-fi/Adventure/Family Disney+ Kyle Patrick Alvarez (The Stanford Prison Experiment) directs a coming-of-age tale set in a lunar mining colony. Isaiah Russell-Bailey, Mckenna Grace, and Kid Cudi head the cast.

    5/5 75/100 Silo Drama/Sci-fi Apple TV+ Adapted from the novels by Hugh Howey, Apple's latest sci-fi series is set on an apocalyptic future Earth that has become so toxic that only 10,000 humans survive. And they do so by living in a giant silo buried a mile beneath the surface—and have done so for so long that they cannot remember when life first moved underground. But who built the silo, and why? No one alive seems to know, and anyone who attempts to find out doesn't live long enough to tell. Is there a murder mystery too? And growing unrest among the survivors? Sure, why not. Rebecca Ferguson heads a cast that also includes Tim Robbins, Common, Harriet Walter, Rashida Jones, David Oyelowo, and Chinaza Uche. The series comes from Justified creator Graham Yost, while Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) directs multiple episodes, including today's two-episode debut.

    4/28
    51/100 Citadel Drama/Sci-fi Prime Video An ambitious (and extraordinarly expensive) global action-spy series from Anthony and Joe Russo (Avengers: Endgame), Citadel will eventually include multiple interconnected series, including an Italian series followed by another set in India. The flagship series which launches today with two episodes (and has already been renewed for a second season) is set in a world eight years after Manticore, a shadowy Illuminati-esque syndicate that is attempting to manipulate world events, has brought down Citadel, a global independent spy agency that aimed to preserve international order and safety. A few Citadel agents managed to escape, their memories wiped, but are now reactivated to thwart Manticore's newest plot. Stanley Tucci, Priyanka Chopra Jonas, Lesley Manville, and Richard Madden head the cast. Additional episodes arrive weekly on Fridays through May 26.

    4/23
    From (Yes, it's just "From"- kh) Drama/Sci-fi/Horror MGM+

    4/21
    Welcome to Eden Foreign/Sci-fi/Drama Netflix

    4/20
    78/100 Mrs. Davis Drama/Comedy/Sci-fi Peacock The latest secretive, sci-fi-tinged drama from Damon Lindelof—here teaming with The Big Bang Theory writer Tara Hernandez, with the latter serving as showrunner and injecting quite a bit of humor into the series—showcases a battle of faith vs. technology as a nun (GLOW's Betty Gilpin) takes on a pervasive and powerful artificial intelligence (the titular Mrs. Davis). Expect something even wilder than that sounds, as critics compared the show's SXSW debut in March to everything from various comic books to Kurt Vonnegut to Monty Python. Jake McDorman, Margo Martindale, Chris Diamantopoulos, Ben Chaplin, Andy McQueen, Katja Herbers, and David Arquette also star, while directors include Black Mirror veteran Owen Harris.

    440:

    "But even so in the US in all of those brownstones and row houses in the northeastern cities that have been around 100-150 years there is an odd thing. Many of them have the plumbing exposed. "

    Presumably this was much cheaper to install.

    441:

    From regency romances, tall, dark, mid-30's, who is sexually experienced but have never been in love with a woman.

    442:

    Is the Black Pharaoh ( & the others) "simply" advance AI systems, as this doomsaying article predicts I wonder?

    443:

    It occurred to me a while ago that the setting for the Paranoia RPG makes complete sense if you assume that Friend Computer, rather than a malfunctioning genius AGI in charge of a decaying military base, is actually an LLM (ie ChatGPT7, or similar).

    • Responses that take the form of an answer but contain obvious errors or just straight up make no sense? Check.
    • Giving completely different (often contradictory) instructions to different people for one situation? Check.
    • Accepting and acknowledging corrections, and then carrying on handing out the same incorrect information to everyone else, because there's no actual understanding going on, and anyway each person it talks to is communicating with a separate process. Check...
    444:

    We've already got people trying to use the "AI chatbot made me do it" defense in court. Obviously government is next.

    I have a friend who works in medical records management software. He tells me their suits have decided that it's vital that it uses LLMs somewhere, as they are the future.

    What value a layer of AI hallucination would add to little Timmy's healthcare is unclear. Maybe it could generate artists impressions of MRI scans.

    445:

    And, if you think that Christianity or Islam (to name two that I know something about) are anything like what they were even a thousand years ago, I have a bridge to sell you.

    But, no, religion is only a part of society, though it can be a major part.

    446:

    I was not trying to specify a numerical distribution, but indicating an issue that those SF plots generally paper over. And you seem to agree that the more 'advanced' a society is, the less constant over time it is.

    447:

    It's a minor mercy, but they probably died so fast their nervous systems couldn't propagate the pain signals into their brain ahead of the shockwave.

    I wonder a little about this sort of thing because our ability to conceptualise the experience of death is always at least a bit hypothetical. There's all the speculation about whether, in the case of execution by guillotine, the head remains conscious for any significant amount to time needed to experience the physical distance from the body; I suppose less gruesomely, how long perception can continue when the heart stops. An implosion where the shockwave is converging on you from all around seems pretty definite though. Reduction to molecules faster than the speed of electrochemical reaction and all that.

    448:

    We're well past 300, so this may be worth reading for those interested in robot cars.

    https://techcrunch.com/2023/07/06/robotaxi-haters-in-san-francisco-are-disabling-waymo-cruise-traffic-cones/

    449:

    Greg: a quick skim suggests that Graun article is just the same old alarmist junk from the TESCREAL boosters that I've been reading, on and off, for 30 years.

    With an added gloss of relevance because the grifters who brought us the cryptocurrency bubble have moved on to pastures new and "AI" is a much sexier marketing term than "large scale statistical modelling" when you're touting for investors in a time of rising interest rates.

    450:

    Ross definitely regards it as his mission to tell the computer establishment what they don't want to know but need to (I know him fairly well). You can trust his analysis. I must get hold of his paper, but I am pretty sure that I could design a training scheme that would preserve the variation - of course, by doing so it would probably 'converge' on promoting extreme theories of all kinds in preference to the obvious answer. There's more than one way to get it wrong :-)

    This arose a long time ago, when simpler 'AI' systems were shown to be better at diagnosis than doctors. Well, yes, because most problems are the common ones, but when you come to edge cases like parasitic twins or even my cancer, they fail dismally, because there is almost no data. And, of course, if you replace junior doctors' diagnoses by 'AI', how do you train the consultants?

    451:

    IMHO, most "human-scale" movies can be enjoyed at home. (I draw the line though at watching them on laptops or phones, though many people seem to like doing that.) "Big" movies (like "Aquatar" and "Maverick") are best in a theater,

    Depends on where you sit in the theatre…

    A few decades ago I ended up ditching friends who wanted to sit in the back. They wanted the screen to look like a TV, while I wanted it to fill my field of vision.

    452:

    The main danger is the increased use of the way in which such automated systems are used for decisions, rather than infomation. That predates and is not dependent on computerisation, of course, when bureaucrats implement the Holy Rules, but it's getting worse.

    But I agree that the scare-mongering is founded in purest speculation.

    453:

    Presumably this was much cheaper to install.

    Well maybe. But this was for the top 1% or higher of the time. They were showing off their plumbing and heating. Conspicuous consumption we call it today.

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/conspicuous-consumption.asp

    There's a humor movie made in the US about a family in New York City in the 1880s about one such family. They lived in a brownstone palace but the dad was a penny pincher when it wasn't to show off their wealth to their social circle.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_with_Father_(film)

    454:

    And, of course, if you replace junior doctors' diagnoses by 'AI', how do you train the consultants?

    There was a US TV series called "House" (British actor) where the main character was a diagnostician. Real doctors couldn't watch it. They said the training / reading / studying to get to where this doc supposedly was in his abilities would take well over 50 years. And thus be totally out of date most of the time.

    455:

    A few decades ago I ended up ditching friends who wanted to sit in the back. They wanted the screen to look like a TV, while I wanted it to fill my field of vision.

    Most movies are made so that someone sitting in the middle of a theater will get a decent viewing. Too close and you can't follow everything on the edges. Too far away and you're looking at a TV as you suggest.

    What I have noticed is that more and more "TV" assumes a 43" or 50" sized screen. Many times 4K. Way too many details get lost in smaller screens unless you get within a few feet.

    456:

    Speaking from an author's perspective on FTL: You have to decide the purpose of your story. It may be to propose a method for FTL that makes sense -- but that will be mocked by all the physicists in the audience -- or whether FTL is only a tool to support a story that requires or benefits from fast travel between planets and star systems. My esthetic choice starts with the assumption that after only about 200 years of serious physics research, we don't know the half of how the universe works, and assuming that relativity will never be replaced by something more interesting seems a tad premature. That frees me to tell stories with FTL. Geoff Ryman et al.'s "mundane manifesto" (i.e., stick with only the physics we already know) is a perfectly legitimate alternative -- but it's a choice, not a requirement.

    DP noted (422): "Mass Immigration Experiment Gives Canada an Edge in Global Race for Labor The country’s population growth is among the fastest in the world, bolstering the economy while creating strains in big cities."

    "Strain" is the nice way of saying it. We already had a shortage of rental properties, and an overheated real estate market both for rentals and purchases. Adding thousands of additional immigrants is making a bad situation worse. To be clear: One of the things I love about my country is how welcoming we are to immigrants, and as a second-generation grandchild of immigrants, I 200% support the government's efforts to bring in more people and I've said so repeatedly to my member of parliament (MP). But in talking with my MP, it turns out that there are no plans to build accommodations to house these people or to fund them for more than a year after their arrival. Seriously? Didn't anyone think this through? (Rhetorical question. Governments don't think things through.)

    Speaking of golden-age SF, the following quote just popped up in my feed: "It is a truism that almost any sect, cult, or religion will legislate its creed into law if it acquires the political power to do so."--Robert Heinlein

    Welcome to the modern [sic] United States. And the same folks behind this movement in the U.S. seem to be trying the same trick in Canada, which is deeply disturbing.

    457:

    "We already had a shortage of rental properties, and an overheated real estate market both for rentals and purchases."

    Given how vast and empty Canada is I could never understand why it has a real estate shortage (and why little 1,000 sf bungalows in Toronto - as shown on "Love It or List It" - go for over a million dollars).

    458:

    (British actor)

    Hugh Lawrie, a comedian-turned-actor, once partnered (professionally) with Stephen Fry. Something all the non-Americans and probably some of the Americans know quite well. I never watched House, but it was certainly on air for several years here (in Oz). And so were sketch comedy series like A Bit Of Fry and Lawrie. Not sure if (I remember if) both grew out of Not the Nine O'Clock News along with Rowan Atkinson, Jennifer Saunders and others, but if seems vaguely right timeframe wise.

    459:

    (Rhetorical question. Governments don't think things through.)

    Well in the US at least they think things through to the next election cycle. It used to be a bit different here.

    460:

    Given how vast and empty Canada is I could never understand why it has a real estate shortage (and why little 1,000 sf bungalows in Toronto - as shown on "Love It or List It" - go for over a million dollars).

    Because it gets very cold. Most modern societies tend to "city up" in such situations. And latitude isn't always a good measure. The southern edge of Canada, except for that on the Pacific, gets way colder than many places at similar l attitudes.

    As to a lack of housing, several of us here have commented on this. The upper half of people in industrial "first world" countries seem to have moved into a mindset "we have ours, go figure yours out" with new housing. NIMBY and BANANA are huge influences. There is a total disconnect between "where have all the workers gone" and keep the immigrants out or they can find a place to live somewhere else. And then they wonder why the housing costs are going up.

    461:

    And almost all such plots are crap. How many human societies have lasted longer than a few hundred years?

    Interestingly the plot of the TV series Foundation is based on the empire falling apart after 500 years or so of rule by a single family of clones. I can't remember the details in the books but it wasn't clone based.

    462:

    Seriously? Didn't anyone think this through? (Rhetorical question. Governments don't think things through.)

    The failure mode of monarchy is that there's no good way of handling a crisis caused by an incompetent, malign, or destructive monarch -- you can't simply sack them and select a new one. (This also applies to entrenched dictatorships.)

    The failure mode of democracy is that any events that cannot happen until after the next election cycle are Somebody Else's Problem and can safely be ignored by the current incumbents. (This is made worse by term limits, unlike the other problem of democracy, which is corrupt office-holders, which term limits tend to help with. Oh, and corruption is encouraged by election systems that require candidates to raise funds. But it can also be encouraged by systems that fund all candidates' election expenses! There's no way to win this game.)

    Anyway: monarchies or autocracies can in principle address long-term problems better than a democracy, but usually they don't -- they tend to be traditionalist in outlook, assume conditions are long-term stable, and oppose change (especially change which reduces their scope for living it large). Meanwhile democracies can in principle adapt rapidly to changing conditions, but usually fail to take a long-term view of anything.

    463:

    There's no way to win this game.

    Start a program to breed selfishness out of the human population.

    What could go wrong?

    464:

    The Lazarus Project

    My wife and I are watching. Interesting plot lines. And they manage to avoid most of the time paradoxes. Unlike most entertainment involving time travel.

    To add a point. There has been discovered a way to "checkpoint" time and go back to the checkpoint. But they totally skip over the details of does this apply to the entire universe or just earth or the area local to Sol or ....

    465:

    Given how vast and empty Canada is I could never understand why it has a real estate shortage (and why little 1,000 sf bungalows in Toronto - as shown on "Love It or List It" - go for over a million dollars).

    Because most people don't want to live in the vast empty spaces. They want to live in cities with all the urban amenities like hospitals, libraries, and a choice of where you can go shopping. Not to mention jobs. (Actually, it's probably mostly jobs.)

    Also, winter. The empty parts of Canada are cold in the winter. Like -20C is a warm winter day cold. Liveable but not especially desirable if other options exist.

    466:

    The empty parts of Canada are cold in the winter. Like -20C is a warm winter day cold. Liveable but not especially desirable if other options exist.

    Not to worry, just wait 20 years and you'll be regretting not building HVAC into all the new houses you'll be throwing up there!

    467:

    Hugh Laurie with a U. Much of the sketch comedy of the era grew out of the Cambridge Footlights with a decent chunk from the Oxford equivalent and a few oiks (To use The Young Ones description from the episode Bambi) from Manchester and such lesser institutions. Much of post-war British comedy up to the turn of the millennium, or the bits that made it onto TV at least, came via the Oxford and Cambridge comedy revue societies.

    Random factoid: Hugh Laurie was a member of the 1980 Cambridge crew for The Boat Race.

    468:

    Sure, but it integrates longitudinally too. Clive James and Germaine Greer were in the Footlights at the same time as the Pythons and the Goodies.

    469:

    Hugh Laurie and Damian Lewis were both major stars in the US 20 or more years ago. And it was a bit jarring to US folks when they were heard to speak unscripted in their UK empire natural accents. It just showed how good they were that they seemed to be native "Merican" speakers.

    Damian Lewis played Dick Winters (the main character) in Band of Brothers in the later 1990s.

    470:

    Not to worry, just wait 20 years and you'll be regretting not building HVAC into all the new houses you'll be throwing up there!

    To pick a nit, Heating they have. Ventilation they mostly have. It the AC you're talking about. And to be honest more and more houses in the Toronto and Montreal areas are built with AC. (Isn't the power almost free from Quebec Hydro? [snark off]) That area can get a LOT of variation through the year. Says he who has visited in the summer and sweated and in the winter been very glad for the underground connections in downtown Toronto in February.

    As to folks discussing why not build in the open areas. I'm sure Robert can add to this, but one issue with fire fighting in Canada just now is the fighters have to fly into areas 100s of miles from any facilities and land on lakes or open meadows. It's just empty "up there".

    471:

    Is the Black Pharaoh ( & the others) "simply" advance AI systems, as this doomsaying article predicts I wonder?

    We'll watch out for a unicorn that wants to "Satisfy human values through friendship and ponies." (Arc Words in a series about an AI with runaway mission creep.)

    472:

    Hugh Laurie being in the losing boat race crew is a probable source of Lt George being the last of the Trinity tiddlywinkers in the final episode of Blackadder goes forth. He recounts how all the rest have already copped a packet before they go over the top. Another of this strange attraction of British actors in the US is Henry Cavill who having moved on from Superman is involved with a Warhammer 40K TV series. I am not sure it will have the following to be successful as by design every faction in 40K is awful, the physics of its ships and empire are nuts and the elder gods are set on raising chaos in at least one galaxy. I hope it is good news for OGH that reading books is the way to get to thoughtful and intelligent imaginative fiction.

    473:

    to be honest more and more houses in the Toronto and Montreal areas are built with AC

    Any new house will have it.

    But Toronto and Montreal are the opposite of "vast empty spaces".

    474:

    The trouble is that those are only the failure modes when the system is working - when the system fails, things are far worse, and unfortunately they have in the UK. Yes, it's better than the civil war that generally follows the failure of a monarchy, but it's working on it.

    475:

    Empty, wild, cold and far, far away from anything.

    For comparative purposes, the total population of the 3 northern 'territories' is ~118,000, spread over an area of ~392,000 square kilometers. The northern 70% of most of Canada's provinces are also quite sparsely populated.

    As an example, I was running a remote location in far Northern BC when our client managed to crash his atv and require significant First Aid intervention. It took about an hour for us to get ahold of a helicopter (meanwhile we transported him in a a truck). When we finally were able to commandeer (literally) a helicopter I had to ride with him to the hospital monitoring vitals and changing oxygen tanks. The helicopter ride at full speed was about 1.5 hours, I used up eight oxygen tanks. We had to shut down our entire worksite until I was able to make my way back to camp with refilled tanks.

    This site was remote, clearly. (for the curious, look up Pink Mountain BC then go 200 km NW) It was also only just barely remote compared to everything north or west of that spot.

    Some people like living up there and happily accept the tradeoffs. Most people do not, and there is a finite amount of employment available as well.

    *Note: he survived, though I never saw him again as he was fired for being a complete moron about vehicle safety in remote locations.

    476:

    Hugh Laurie was never main "cast" in Not the Nine O'Clock News. He, with Stephen Fry, were the principal actors in A Bit of Fry and Laurie though.

    477:

    Clarification: 3.92 million square kilometers, not thousands.

    478:

    But Toronto and Montreal are the opposite of "vast empty spaces".

    I know. There are two topics getting intermingled in this discussion.

    479:

    he was fired for being a complete moron about vehicle safety in remote locations.

    We have a non trivial number of just plain folk who wind up in a bed for months and maybe a wheel chair for life or dead as they have fun with their ATV.

    480:

    Re: '... Christianity or Islam ... anything like what they were even a thousand years ago ...'

    Agree - that's why I (also) said that religions change/adapt. Society is made up of many different parts: a screw up in any of its parts can cause the whole thing to collapse. A 'screw up' includes not keeping pace with other changes within its system. 'Society' is dynamic: it changes/adapts or dies. Ditto human being.

    About that bridge - I'll pass. :)

    DavidL @ 370: '... issue with fire fighting in Canada just now is the fighters have to fly into areas 100s of miles from any facilities and land on lakes or open meadows. It's just empty "up there".'

    I just looked it up - Quebec has almost a half million lakes.

    Okay, some are smallish but a good chunk of so-called land area in Canada is made up of lakes. No idea how the lack of rain this Spring affected these lakes' water levels but am wondering whether it would be worth considering installing pumps near these lakes to help fight wild fires*. Heteromeles can probably provide the pro's and con's for doing something like this but I'm seriously concerned about the effects of these fires on wildlife (fauna and flora) in addition to their already measurable effects on humans.

    *Drones could come in real handy for something like this. And an AI to figure out the optimal locations of portable pumps and their attached super-duper (high volume) hoses and/or sprinklers. About the hoses - I've used one of those very lightweight collapsible types - lasted less than 5 years but did the job. An oversized version of something like it could allow for more hoses to be easily air-dropped into locations as needed.

    481:

    SFReader @ 433:

    Re: 'TV stand ... invite my old folk music circle over to play.'

    Based on personal experience (i.e., n of 1) ...

    Seems the TV manufacturers have been concentrating so hard on getting the 'video' right that they not just overlooked but trashed the 'audio' on this generation's A/V devices. So you might consider buying/connecting a couple of decent speakers.

    I have a 5.1 THX system for this computer.

    I have a fairly good component stereo system accumulated & upgraded over half a lifetime. Back when I had a real TV & enough room to "watch TV" (instead of just YouTube on the computer monitor), the TV was another "component" of the stereo system.

    The control amplifier has an input for the TV (stereo) audio. Signal went from the Cable Box to a stereo VCR which split the signal into audio & video - audio to the stereo & video to the TV.

    I hope I'll only have to add a sub-woofer to get a 5.1 (or better) system for the TV. Maybe have to upgrade the head end?

    482:

    Robert Prior @ 451:

    IMHO, most "human-scale" movies can be enjoyed at home. (I draw the line though at watching them on laptops or phones, though many people seem to like doing that.) "Big" movies (like "Aquatar" and "Maverick") are best in a theater,

    Depends on where you sit in the theatre…

    A few decades ago I ended up ditching friends who wanted to sit in the back. They wanted the screen to look like a TV, while I wanted it to fill my field of vision.

    I prefer smaller, more intimate theaters where the screen still fills your field of vision even when you ARE sitting on the back row (where inconsiderate idiots can't sit behind you & kick the seat when they get excited).

    483:

    I thought most of the fires were east of Quebec. Or have they spread to Quebec.

    Now you need to depot fuel. And if the plan is to leave them there you now have a very interesting supply chain to deal with for ongoing maintenance.

    Talk to the US Army about such things. I think the average cost of a gallon of fuel into such situations runs to about $100/gal.

    As a side note apparently there are more than a few nuclear power units on the back of big trucks sitting in various out of the way places in the old Soviet Union. Abandoned. But still a bit radioactive.

    484:

    TV and sound systems.

    I have a 30 year old JVC well above average big box stereo receiver, CD player, and dual tape deck. About 20 years ago I wrapped it up on packing wrap and sat it aside. Then about 10 years ago I wanted better sound out of my then decent TV. Oops. Only digital out of the TV but stereo only had analog inputs. $20-$30 on amazon got me a not terrible DAC which I used for a while. Then I got a sound bar and recovered a lot of space. Stereo is wrapped back up on a shelf waiting for me to decide what to do with it. After I digitize a collection of cassettes that were send as letters from my father in law (long dead) while in Viet Nam it may go to a thrift store.

    485:

    Vulch @ 467:

    Hugh Laurie with a U. Much of the sketch comedy of the era grew out of the Cambridge Footlights with a decent chunk from the Oxford equivalent and a few oiks (To use The Young Ones description from the episode Bambi) from Manchester and such lesser institutions. Much of post-war British comedy up to the turn of the millennium, or the bits that made it onto TV at least, came via the Oxford and Cambridge comedy revue societies.

    Random factoid: Hugh Laurie was a member of the 1980 Cambridge crew for The Boat Race.

    He was also in Blackadder the Third and Blackadder Goes Forth ... along with being a fairly competent jazz pianist.

    486:

    There's all the speculation about whether, in the case of execution by guillotine, the head remains conscious for any significant amount to time needed to experience the physical distance from the body; I suppose less gruesomely, how long perception can continue when the heart stops.

    Anecdata n==1. I have had two episodes of ventricular fibrillation and was fitted with an ICD after the first. The second one I remember. I had just reached the top of the stairs when I felt dizzy. I felt a tickling sensation around my chest which I guess was the VF happening. I had time to think 'sit down' and then passed out (before I had finished sitting down, based on where I found myself when I came round). I think I was out for about 5 to 10 mins, and after a coffee felt fine enough to carry on with my day. I was unconscious before the ICD fired, which is apparently really painful, and I only discovered what had happened the next day when the hospital got round to reading the nightly telemetry upload from my device, and then phoned me.

    So, unscientifically, I think you'd have less than five seconds, a lot of which is preoccupied with feeling disoriented. Also, no life flashing in front of my eyes, bright tunnels or other woo-woo.

    487:

    As a side note apparently there are more than a few nuclear power units on the back of big trucks sitting in various out of the way places in the old Soviet Union. Abandoned. But still a bit radioactive.

    Not on trucks. But at one time 2500 of them. And many are abandoned and in the "wild". Here's an interesting video.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NT8-b5YEyjo

    488:

    Okay, some are smallish but a good chunk of so-called land area in Canada is made up of lakes. No idea how the lack of rain this Spring affected these lakes' water levels but am wondering whether it would be worth considering installing pumps near these lakes to help fight wild fires. Heteromeles can probably provide the pro's and con's for doing something like this but I'm seriously concerned about the effects of these fires on wildlife (fauna and flora) in addition to their already measurable effects on humans.*

    You rang?

    Actually, I've looked into getting fire sprinklers to put on my California house (got deterred by the problem of having a suitably pressurized water supply during a fire, when the fire engines are bogarting every drop from the mains), and found out that fire sprinklers are easy to get from Canada, where the tech is better developed. To protect your lakeside vacation cabin, you drop the fire hose in the lake, hook it up to the pump (which will, of course, be fully fueled and working after years in storage) and pump water madly up to the roof. And pray a bit.

    Away from a lake? Just skip to the last sentence of the previous 'graph.

    Anyway, I'm sad for the Canadians who are currently breathing in the cremains of some of their forests. But they're now learning the lesson that there are two types of wildfires, wind-driven monsters on the hurricane/nuclear exchange scale, and human set, generally controllable fires. Humans can't fight the former (as any Australian will tell you. Yank politicians are still in denial), but we're pretty good at putting out the latter. Using little fires to starve big ones is, for the bureaucratized world, a lost art that they're trying to rediscover via inclusive bureaucratic processes. Which we should cheer on. See also the last sentence of the third 'graph.

    Anyway, settling a warming, upper middle Canada would be an exciting adventure into epic-scale wetland reclamation, 21st century style. By this I mean that you'll need to get the water out of the bogs/muskegs/swamps/marshes (without causing droughts and wildfires. Maybe pipe it to where the fires are burning?), while keeping the now-dry organic soils from blowing all their CO2 and methane skyward (which, erm, we don't know how to do). Or...I dunno, get hundreds of thousands of people living off of moose ranching, bear wrangling, beaver-based aquaculture, and hosting billions of mosquitos and blackflies (can these be caught after dining and turned into human food?). You know, fun for the average, north-migrating urban hipster. Of course it will work! It even sounds science fictional! And they'll get religion,* from all the praying they'll undoubtedly do.

    *If they're smart, getting religion will actually involve long apprenticeships and adoptions into the local First Nations.

    489:

    Charlie @ 449
    Oh dear, never mind ... in other words - "ignore it".

    EC @ 452
    Yes - an updated, "improved" version of: "Computer says NO"

    Guvmints NOT thinking things through ....
    I tlooks as though Rish! (As the Graun labels him) is preparing to fuck up & trash the agreement for us to re-join "Horizon"
    More stupid tory wrecking

    EC @ 474
    Our current failure mode is simple: tories - smashing everything within reach, so that whoever follows them will be emergency-repairing for at least 5 years - & it will cost.
    It is, very surprisingly, NOT incompetence, it's has to be deliberate.

    John S @ 482
    Sometimes an actual "Movie theatre" ( "Cinema" ) is the only satisfactory option ...
    Unfortunately, my local one has just imploded - now I'll have to find out where is the nearest I can see "Dune2" will be!

    490:

    now I'll have to find out where is the nearest I can see "Dune2" will be!

    Via AppleTV on my 65" 4K UHD with sound bar? [grin]

    491:

    There is/was (haven't tried to look at it for ages) a site called englishrussia.com which had loads of pages describing amazing abandoned sites in Russia. Everything from nuclear lighthouses and plague labs down to plain human residences now inhabited by plants. Seems like any kind of horribly dangerous thing you could possibly ever want is available simply by wandering off into the Russian jungle and poking around a bit.

    (Except fissile materials, probably; the nuclear lighthouses used RTGs.)

    492:

    David L @ 484:

    TV and sound systems.

    I have a 30 year old JVC well above average big box stereo receiver, CD player, and dual tape deck. About 20 years ago I wrapped it up on packing wrap and sat it aside. Then about 10 years ago I wanted better sound out of my then decent TV. Oops. Only digital out of the TV but stereo only had analog inputs. $20-$30 on amazon got me a not terrible DAC which I used for a while. Then I got a sound bar and recovered a lot of space. Stereo is wrapped back up on a shelf waiting for me to decide what to do with it. After I digitize a collection of cassettes that were send as letters from my father in law (long dead) while in Viet Nam it may go to a thrift store.

    No matter what I end up with I'll keep at least part of my old system. The speakers are high end (even if they are not self-powered like today's studio monitors) and I still have my old collection of LPs that I probably won't get around to digitizing in my lifetime (fairly easy to find most of the music already digitized on-line).

    I got the turntable from a pawn shop down in Fayetteville, NC back in the mid 80s ...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji3o9rS9ZbY

    493:

    There were one or two instances of people being guillotined who had agreed in advance to try and keep blinking as long as they could when their head was in the basket. Five seconds does seem to be about the maximum, more like three in those cases.

    494:

    I got the turntable from a pawn shop down in Fayetteville, NC back in the mid 80s ...

    I had bought a collection of things in the 80s. Got robbed around 93. My "replacement with new" insurance policy shipped me the new opt of line CONSUMER JVC stuff direct from JVC. (It turned out JVC was the parent brand of my stolen stuff.)

    Aside from the major hassles of my house getting robbed it was a nice upgrade. Mostly they took electronics that were easy to carry and drop off at a pawn shop. They didn't spend any time looking for my wife's jewelry.

    Our cats were a bit confused by it all. When I got home after midnight one met me at the door. First time in the 4 years we had lived here. And the police told us the best prevention was a dog that barked and sounded big. Thieves rarely enter those houses. Too much hassle. They just move on to the next house.

    495:

    people being guillotined who had agreed in advance to try and keep blinking

    I'd love to see a modern day release form for such a thing.

    496:

    We just moved the Roku from her 32"(?) to the 42". We have no plans to get a larger TV. We have no room for a larger tv (see: bookcases and artwork).

    Some movies, though... back in the mid-nineties, when they rereleased the director's cuts of SW, there were ads in the theaters: if you've only seen Star War (in lines that showed this in about half the screen, or less), then you've never seen STAR WARS (full screen). True.

    497:

    I still have the "24-bit" (noise floor is more like 18 bits) ADC I built for digitising my own LPs... and never used, and now I no longer have either the LPs or the turntable.

    I did eventually manage to find losslessly-compressed copies of nearly all the albums available for downloading, and all my music is now on the hard drive of my main PC. Output is via a USB-to-optical-S/PDIF adapter (which has the incidental advantage that the default configurations of all the other things still think output is through the sound card built into the motherboard, so they automatically don't work without me having to turn them off). On the other end of the optical cable is an S/PDIF receiver whose output signal is in exactly the right format to feed straight into the DAC of an old CD player that the CD reading optics failed on, which then feeds the amp in the usual way.

    This means the "audio" and "computer" departments are completely separate units, in separate boxes with separate power supplies and no electrical connection between them. So there is none of the gruesome racket from the earth loop you get if you try and plug a PC into a hi-fi with a phono cable, and none of the other racket that comes from having audio circuitry on an unscreened PCB in the same box as a load of seriously frantic digital signals and running off the same power supply. It also turned out that by tolerating Amazon's shitty search function for a long enough time, I could find a USB to S/PDIF adapter that was nothing more than an adapter and did not have any signal processing capability of its own, and an S/PDIF receiver of super-duper top notch grade that could handle the right format and didn't need a microcontroller to make it work, for about 5 quid each, which makes the whole thing vastly cheaper than any other possible approach.

    498:

    We just moved the Roku from her 32"(?) to the 42". We have no plans to get a larger TV. We have no room for a larger tv

    Our two 11 year old TVs were getting long in the tooth. On one the sound could take 15 to 30 minutes to decide to work. Mostly. Sort of. The other was getting really dim.

    Walking through Costco last year they had a previous year's model P65 (their high end unit) on sale at less than half price to clear them out. I couldn't resist. My wife thought we were being decadent. But now she's OK with the cinema experience in the room. And we had the space on THAT wall. [grin]

    499:

    Anyway: monarchies or autocracies can in principle address long-term problems better than a democracy, but usually they don't -- they tend to be traditionalist in outlook, assume conditions are long-term stable, and oppose change (especially change which reduces their scope for living it large). Meanwhile democracies can in principle adapt rapidly to changing conditions, but usually fail to take a long-term view of anything.

    Interesting article published June 28: https://nautil.us/the-biologist-blowing-our-minds-323905/

    It's an interesting interview on its own (especially the last question), but there's a question that IMHO applies to here as well as biology:

    "One slide you skipped over in your talk was, “Why don’t robots get cancer?” I’m intrigued!

    "The reason cancer’s not a problem in today’s robotics is because we build with dumb parts. The robot may or may not be intelligent to some degree, but at the next level down, all the parts are passive; they don’t have any goals of their own. So, there’s never a chance that they’re going to defect. Your keyboard’s never going to wander off and try to have its own life as a keyboard. Whereas in biology, it’s a multi-scale architecture where every level has goals, and there’s pros and cons to this. The pros are you get these amazing things we’re talking about now. The con is that sometimes you get defections as a failure mode, and you get cancer."

    This certainly applies in politics, where defection is the normal failure mode. Worse, political institutions are generally chimeras made up, not just of people, but of formal departments and informal cliques, networks, and other relationships. Keeping these from destroying the institution through defections is hard...

    ...and yes Charlie, I know this is the central theme of most of your stories. Just showing how the idea translates across fields.

    Looking at how long various institutions last is a bit misleading when you look at it in this kind of detail, because of their composite, multi-scale architecture. If an aboriginal mob (in their sense of mob) has a story that contains internal evidence that it's over 50,000 years old, does it mean that that mob is 50,000 years old and has been telling that particular story for 50,000 years? Almost certainly not. Does them telling it help demonstrate that they have more right to their Country than a later English colonist? Hell yes. Thing is, every state or nation on this planet has analogous issues around legitimacy. Legitimacy matters when it's one of the mechanisms that allows a smart entity to deal with internal defections. So I'd suggest that the story of how long some institution has lasted is probably more important than how true each detail of the story is, at least as far as the institution is concerned.

    500:

    "The failure mode of monarchy is that there's no good way of handling a crisis caused by an incompetent, malign, or destructive monarch - you can't simply sack them and select a new one."

    Why not? We did. Two instances of what do you do with a Stuart who isn't stewarding the right interests, by way of iterative development to improve the procedure; and various other more-or-less-arguable instances.

    "(This also applies to entrenched dictatorships.)"

    Especially ones disguised as democracies. (By which I mean actually disguised, not just ones that put "Democratic" in the name of their country.)

    "The failure mode of democracy is that any events that cannot happen until after the next election cycle are Somebody Else's Problem and can safely be ignored by the current incumbents. (This is made worse by term limits, unlike the other problem of democracy, which is corrupt office-holders, which term limits tend to help with."

    Right, so we need to get rid of the "election cycle" while still enforcing some definite term limit...

    Whenever someone is elected, they are given one atom of a standard parliamentary radioisotope with a half-life of a suitable fraction of the term limit. This is linked by some kind of catalytic chain, activated by the decay product, to a lump of some chromophore that can exist in two interconvertible forms, and the whole thing sealed in an ampoule and stuck on a notice-board along with everyone else's ampoules, the board being suspended from the ceiling in the HoC where everyone can see it. As soon as any MP's ampoule changes colour, their term has expired, and the security bods grab them and boot them out. Even if they're in the middle of a speech or something.

    (If it turns out that there's a problem with them running around the HoC dodging the security bods while continuing to declaim, or anything of the kind, the system could easily enough be modified to use a suitably energetic compound in place of the chromophore and the ampoule implanted in the skull.)

    501:

    Lovely post, and very very nice idea to rate your own books.

    I havent read all of the comments yet, so apologies if this is a repeat, but can I just say `Dykes to watch out for' was just wonderful. Sheer f%$king genius. The myth of the wimmins bookstore as a community hub predated Bechdel, but she constructed it, deconstucted it, played with it, and wrote just an absolutely brilliant series that we all read avidly, regardless of our orientation or gender. She documented and struggled with changes in her communities, identities. It was such a good read...

    ( And the characters... Mo )

    Incredibly significant.

    I remember a cameo in a gay male cartoon, a dog sitting at the corner of a panel, cringing at the action - excruciating embarassing bad sex --- and wondering why it couldn't have been a cat extra in Bechdel's instead.

    And 'Fun Home'. Genius. `Are you my mother', likewise. Among many other things, just superb exposition of Winnicot.

    Bechdel. Squee. She is f#&king amazing. And that `test' hit a cultural nerve, but so does almost everything else in her works.

    TL;DR -- Bechdel rocks. And a large % of the readers of this blog would probably really enjoy her work. I can easily imagine Stross and Bechdel down at the pub, talking and listening intensely, each getting off on the way the other thinks.

    502:

    "there are two types of wildfires, wind-driven monsters on the hurricane/nuclear exchange scale, and human set, generally controllable fires."

    Surely there are also two subcategories of the first type: ones that happen because humans have planted lots of flammable vegetation and then run shitty sparking failure-prone power lines through it, or equivalent, and ones that happen because they're supposed to and have been happening for long enough that that's how the vegetation works around here now. Or, alternatively, ones you should try and avoid/extinguish, and ones you just have to put up with. But when one gets in the news it seems to be very unusual for anyone to mention which type it is.

    503:

    Why not? We did. Two instances of what do you do with a Stuart who isn't stewarding the right interests

    Bzzt: the first one had the entertaining side-effect of killing roughly 5% of the UK's population and installing a military dictatorship for a couple of decades. The second merely caused a small civil war.

    If you want to fix the election cycle problem you need an electoral system that always forces some sort of coalition, and there's an election somewhere almost every year with enough seats in play to unseat an unpopular coalition. No more "we can get 50% + 1 of the seats and rule like Thatcher" nonsense (ahem: see also Nehenyahu's current quasi-fascist grip on Israel, despite it being a pure PR system that generates coalitions routinely).

    504:

    Re: 'Just skip to the last sentence of the previous 'graph.'

    Erm ... last sentence on which graph?

    I read the link (36% of Canada is wetlands) which makes me wonder about how these wildfires continue to grow and where are all the displaced animals going. Permanently siphoning off the wetlands isn't a practical solution (no one needs another Aral Sea) so some sort of feedback loop that filters out harmful forest fire debris. All this is just guessing on my part which is why I rang for you - figured you'd have some sensible ideas. :)

    Hmmm ... I just checked some news updates and lo and behold! an article on a Canadian news site sorta discussing what I mentioned plus it mentions that California State University (Fullerton) is conducting research on this.

    'How tiny sensors in the forest are shaping the future of firefighting'

    https://globalnews.ca/news/9812366/forest-fire-sensors-ai/#:~:text=The%20future%20of%20firefighting,-Fighting%20forest%20fires&text=The%20sensors%20work%20as%20clusters,nodes%2C%20the%20better%20the%20detection.

    505:

    Fire crews carry in pumps and hoses already. No need to have them already in place and then need to locate them during an emergency. (Source: friend who worked summers on a fire crew during uni.)

    Lakes are more useful as a means of access, as they are convenient landing spots for floatplanes.

    For those readers interested in seeing how they would do fighting wildfires, order this solitaire game and have at it!

    http://microgamedesigngroup.com/SJ.html

    A good simulation (given the constraints of the medium), based on actual forestry models for fire spread.

    506:

    Re: 'Legitimacy matters when it's one of the mechanisms that allows a smart entity to deal with internal defections.'

    Okay - so how do immigration/a nomadic lifestyle vs. inbreeding fit into this? We've had documented 'cultures/societies' of both types.

    Not sure whether you're saying that 'legitimacy' is something that's inherent to the thing/situation or something that's imposed/defined by a group of people or something else. Thanks!

    507:

    Erm ... last sentence on which graph?

    'graph = paragraph. I was being cutesy, so if you had trouble seeing the apostrophe, my apologies.

    As for lakes and fires, the thing to remember is that fire winds on a big fire can carry embers for miles, right across lakes. Water in the soil and whether plants are hydrated enough to resist embers are more important than water in lakes.

    508:

    Location of Quebec fires:

    https://sopfeu.qc.ca/en/maps/ https://sopfeu.qc.ca/en/

    Note that Quebec is east of Ontario (which is also burning, but not as much).

    Map for Canada (use the overlays to see active fires):

    https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/interactive-map

    509:

    Re: '[SMOKEJUMPERS] A good simulation (given the constraints of the medium), based on actual forestry models for fire spread.'

    I haven't tried the game yet but first glance at the map design - hey, it's a (more complex) variation of GO!

    510:

    The big fire/small fire thing's in the data, at least in California. I did the analysis from Wikipedia's pages on fires in California for each year, where the give the stats. In California, there are thousands to tens of thousands of fires every year (7-12k). Of these, well over 90% are less than five acres, quickly put out, and cause no injury or structural damage. Then there are a few fires, generally less than 10/year, that cause basically all the acreage burned, structural damage, and lives lost. Often only one or two fires cause over half the damage every year. In terms of energy release, the biggest fires are on the scale of a mid-size hurricane or a bunch of nukes, although they release the energy much more slowly. These are normally doused by weather shifts, and firefighters don't extinguish them, they evacuate people and protect critical buildings, until the winds die and sometimes until the rains come.

    Same pattern also happens in LA County, where someone else did the same analysis. I'm guessing it's a norm. I did this analysis years ago, at a time when firefighters were pushing hard for megabucks without oversight, on the premise that they could fight the monsters the way they fight tiny fires, if only they had more money and no oversight. The firegrifters got their wish, but (surprise!) the fires just keep getting worse.

    Boreal forests, as in Canada, tend to burn rarely, but catastrophically, and that's what we're seeing happen now. It's exacerbated by climate change, but it's not caused by climate change. These blazes will (hopefully!) be put out by summer rains, but in the meantime, having a cabin next to a lake and roof sprinklers are probably the ways to stay safe in the fire area.

    511:

    Go with winds and fuel loads :-)

    Seriously good game. If I had enough wealth to have a gaming wing for my mansion with a table for Smokejumpers with larger hexes, and nicely painted 3d-printed models instead of counters :-)

    I'd also have a leatherbound set of the Halting State trilogy signed by the author :-)

    512:

    "The looming threats of an aging population..."

    Look, you can't handle the "looming threats" of an aging population by shunting young people from one place to another. Either it just makes the population even more aged in the places they come from, or else if everyone starts doing it their efforts cancel each other out and the only change is an increase in the general level of pointless circumfutuation.

    And, of course, you also can't handle the "looming threats" by getting people to make more young people in the first place. Either you have to start killing off old people to make room for them or you run out of planet. (Though, strangely, this bleeding obvious point seems to be something an enormous number of people cannot grasp.)

    The way to handle it is simply to stop regarding it as a "looming threat". Which ought to be straightforward enough. All that is required is to recognise that the "not enough young people to support the old people" thing only applies if you assume that their capacity to do so is already nearing its limit. Unfortunately seeing the fallacy of that assumption requires recognising that most of what people spend their time doing doesn't support anyone or anything except the perception of a need for people to spend all their time doing it, and instead of trying to knock out this positive feedback loop, society in general is brainwashed from childhood into considering it right and proper.

    (Whoever taught economists to have a compulsive fetish for differentiation and didn't tell them it acts as a high-pass filter ought to have been strangled at birth.)

    513:

    Real doctors did watch House. When I moved to a new job I was in hospital accommodation for over a year and the doctors and medical students I shared with watched all medical TV series, vied with each other for working out the diagnoses and laughed at the glaring mistakes (but I beat them to a phaeochromocytoma diagnosis on “No Angels” which was the unanimous favourite programme). They laughed at House. And especially at the numerous wrong diagnoses before the final last minute success. I was particularly amused by how the doctors often elbowed aside the lab staff and faultlessly performed, at the first attempt, complex tests the labs had never heard of. When I was working as research coordinator Part of my and my staff’s job was training doctors in basic lab techniques to enable them to perform the tests they were using in their projects and the quality control procedures they needed to use. One surgeon came in to my lab for a basic competency test in pipetting using the 5 microlitre pippette he would be using for his samples. He told me that the day before he’d operated on a ruptured aortic aneurism successfully but the couldn’t sleep for worrying about using an Eppendorf pipette.

    514:

    DavidL noted: "... Quebec has almost a half million lakes... [I] am wondering whether it would be worth considering installing pumps near these lakes to help fight wild fires."

    I'll wait while you (i) do the math for the cost of half a million pumps plus (ii) calculate the fuel costs of transporting them throughout Quebec's ca. 1.5 million km^2. Then maintaining them annually to ensure they're still working when you arrive at the lakes. This is why the firefighters bring the pumps with them.

    DavidL: "Heteromeles can probably provide the pro's and con's for doing something like this but I'm seriously concerned about the effects of these fires on wildlife (fauna and flora) in addition to their already measurable effects on humans."

    Me too. (Forest ecology degree.) Much of northern Canada, and particularly the boreal forest, is a fire-ecology system; that is, it originates from and is maintained by natural fires. The fires we're seeing now are beginning to be well outside the natural frequency and severity, if they haven't already surpassed those limits. I haven't gone looking for any recent studies of what this is going to do to the ecology of northern North America, but it probably won't be pretty.

    One of the things nobody's talking about is the quantity of greenhouse gases being pumped into the atmosphere by these fires. Fires in 2021 (including Eurasian boreal forests) hit a record at 1.8 Gt (https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/record-breaking-amount-carbon-dioxide-emissions-wildfires-2021/154310/). To put that in perspective, Canada's total emissions in 2021 were 0.56 Gt (https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2022#emissions_table). The numbers aren't directly comparable, but give you an idea of the relative magnitudes.

    515:

    I have acquired the impression (mostly through your posts) that the big fires in California are in the "unnatural" big-fire subcategory - ie. ones where humans have set up a conflagration waiting to happen, and surprise surprise it does.

    Whereas in Australia you have vegetation which has evolved to be flammable and then have its seeds or roots survive the fire, and relies on everything going up occasionally to keep the system working properly.

    And (some?) boreal forests may be kind of like that, but the adaptations aren't so obviously purposeful, and it's more a case of "evolved to cope when it does occasionally happen, but aren't really into it" than "evolved to need it to happen quite often and make sure it does"; so it's all a bit unclear and the research can't say anything more definite than "may be" at the moment.

    Accordingly, the manifestation of the human stupidity factor isn't a constant, but is somewhere on a scale from "shouldn't have moved there in the first place" to "shouldn't have fucked it up" (with another coordinate variable for how predictable it was).

    I may well have the details all wrong, but that's the impression I have of the general situation.

    516:

    DavidL noted

    I think it was SFReader or Heteromeles or one quoting the other. I was way down this chain of commenting.

    517:

    @Robert Prior @David L @ Whitroth: re: Viewing https://www.rtings.com/tv/reviews/by-size/size-to-distance-relationship Robert: I would’ve ditched your pals, too. David L: according to the chart your optimum viewing distance for your 65” TV is 9.1’. The longest distance the chart has is 11.9’ and that’s for an 85’ TV.

    @David L: re: Accents: Damian Lewis has sounded very American to me in “Billions” and Hugh Laurie’s American accent has improved over the years- it was too nasal for some time. Some Brits are perfect to my ears: Jamie Bamber in “BSG”, Juliet Rylance in “Perry Mason”. We all know though, that for the best American accents: get Australians! (lol)

    @Canadians: re: Remote & empty: I remember reading a contrast between American and Canadian cultures being described as when “*they” arrived “early on”: Americans: “Hah-hah! All for us!” Canadians: “Ooh! We’re all alone up here!” Australians: what could we put in here for you?

    @John S: re: Intimate movie theaters: Here in SF there is/was (not sure- many have closed meso/post-pandemic) a theater with 37 seats.

    @Heteromeles: re: Warming Canada: I’m playing around with a future setting ~115~150 yr from now and speculating which warmed up lands in Canada, Siberia, Scandinavia and maybe the sub-Antarctic islands and the Antarctic peninsula might be suitable for human activity of some sort (agricultural, pastoral) and what would be needed for that. (I’m thinking that the AP might be like the Falklands/northernmost Scotland today.) Any suggestions/thought for research?

    @Pigeon: re: Englishrussia: “Seems like any kind of horribly dangerous thing you could possibly ever want is available simply by wandering off into the Russian jungle and poking around a bit.” Sounds like Florida…

    *not the Native Americans/First Nations

    518:

    It's probably worth getting rid of "natural" versus "non-natural" with regards to fires in Australia and the US. The natural=good, human=bad dichotomy doesn't really describe what's going on. In both places, humans have been lighting fires on many landscapes since well before the end of the last ice age, so much of the vegetation that European colonists saw was, in various places, deliberately created and had been for millennia. That's the kind of anthropogenic fire we're trying to get back to, via bureaucratic/capitalist processes which are, so far, struggling at the task.

    And yes, I'm being coy. People burned the Mediterranean for a very long time too. And almost certainly elsewhere (Japan, for instance). We just have the best evidence in the US and Australia at the moment.

    Human fire can be good, when the humans know what the frack they're doing. Thanks to German-style scientific forestry and its bastard offspring like 20th century fire suppression, most of the traditional knowledge was lost, everywhere from Indian fire in California to local burning in Greece. We're now trying to reconstruct that knowledge in places, leading to my comments in the first paragraph.

    Whether this applies to the boreal forest and Canadian fires I don't know. It certainly applies further south.

    519:

    11 yr old is "long in the tooth"? It's a tv, not a phone or computer. I bought my 42" used (a year old, the guy was buying a bigger one) around '11. No problems with anything......

    520:

    Limbo, by Wolfe, has another answer. The higher up in the government you go, another limb gets chopped off. At the top, you have none, and are utterly dependent on others to take care of you....

    521:

    @Heteromeles: re: Warming Canada: I’m playing around with a future setting ~115~150 yr from now and speculating which warmed up lands in Canada, Siberia, Scandinavia and maybe the sub-Antarctic islands and the Antarctic peninsula might be suitable for human activity of some sort (agricultural, pastoral) and what would be needed for that. (I’m thinking that the AP might be like the Falklands/northernmost Scotland today.) Any suggestions/thought for research?

    SELF-PROMOTION WARNING

    This is what I wrote Hot Earth Dreams for. It's intended as a sourcebook for people creating cli-fi, and I did write about potential colonization of the Arctic and Antarctic in it.

    522:

    Re: 'I'll wait while you (i) do the math for the cost of half a million pumps plus (ii) calculate the fuel costs of transporting them throughout Quebec's ca. 1.5 million km^2'

    That's why the drones ... most to monitor and some to drop pumps and hoses into key areas on an as-needed basis. So a couple thousand of each would probably be a good start. You'd still need on the ground personnel. Transportation costs - probably not that high because you'd get a few regular planes transporting a couple hundred drones, pumps & hoses to a 10-20 different base camps from where you'd do the actual drone launches. I'm not claiming any expertise in this, just imagining how some existing tech might be repurposed.

    Any thoughts about what type of tree replanting would work best there considering those parts of Canada are likely to continue to experience rising temps, drier conditions and stronger winds? I think that it's all softwood right now which when dry catches fire much more easily and sends more sparks flying farther than burning hardwood.

    re: California - when preventing wildfires didn't work for the ecology

    Read some time ago that some of the giant redwoods and sequoia were in danger because there hadn't been enough natural fires for 40 or so years. These trees' seeds are extremely small and need the type of soil conditions and sunlight exposure that usually occur after a fire has cleared an area. Anyways, this has since been addressed via small planned burns.

    523:

    Pigeon: in Australia you have vegetation which has evolved to be flammable

    In the same way that carrots and corn have evolved to be edible, yes. The selection pressure has been supplied by "monkey make fire" (originally via firesticks but these days we continue the tradition in a high tech way using electricity and orbital mind control lasers cigarette butts).

    Geoff Hart: I'll wait while you...

    Thank you. We "just" install and maintain a few million high tech gizmos in areas that normally hardly anyone goes. In Australia Telecom/Telstra do this on a much smaller scale and it's both fucking expensive and a huge time suck. But their gizmos have the advantage that they're online so we know when they fail and can usually monitor them in some detail. Australia is covered in little solar powered phone stations ... although many people in remote areas would disagree because they experience low/no phone reception every day.

    This is also where "better" technology often sucks dead donkey dick. Going to higher frequencies and smaller cell sizes is great for the 99.99% of people who live in densely populated areas. But the cost of putting a cellphone tower in every single square kilometre of Australia would be quite large. The ye olde first-gen cell system that only needed one every 100km2 struggled...

    524:

    It might be easier to start with energy released by fire divided by volume of water turned to steam to get a rough mass of water you have to move into the fire.

    Any time the natural unit is cubic kilometres/gigatonnes it pays to step back and think about just how much you really want to do the thing. Doesn't matter whether it's building a space habitat or something easier like a continent-wide highway system. Both of those are decade-level projects with enormous ongoing maintenance costs (or they stop working. Ahem).

    Suggesting that we "just" build a system to pump even one cubic kilometre of water to a random spot in Canada in a random week sounds exciting.

    525:

    Any thoughts about what type of tree replanting would work best there considering those parts of Canada are likely to continue to experience rising temps, drier conditions and stronger winds?

    There's a lot of work going on in Australia but the short answer is that fire-suppressing vegetation is generally not fire-tolerant so you have a big catch-22.

    There's some fun work being done to breed up a better saltbush for wetter parts of the country. Goal is to make it more invasive but also spray-sensitive and less salty so that livestock can eat it. Then get farmers to plant it on land that they've salinated to uselessness and sell them on the idea by being able to let livestock graze it during droughts.

    Saltbush is fairly fire-resistant but also somewhat fire-tolerant. But a monoculture of that would be just as bad as pines once we develop an insect pest or fungus that eats it. And it won't grow in really dry areas. In those places we want the more traditional "reproduces during wet years, barely survives the rest of the time" stuff that's actively destroyed by introduced pest species (camels are a big one, but also mice and rabbits that die off in the dry but breed like locusts when it's wet. Oh, also locusts).

    526:

    I don't know about where you are, but I recently saw an article (in Australia) about using AI to use the progress notes from a patient record to generate discharge summaries or specialist letters for example. TBH if it means we get the bloody discharge summary I'll be happy; the hospital I deal with the most is seriously crap at sending them. This will of course only be an improvement if it can scrape the relevant information and only the relevant information.

    527:

    Much like Australia there are large areas of "too hard to live in", although down here it's more desert than tundra, so to speak. The only continent drier that Australia is Antarctica, we don't have the water for filling the hot places with people, for starters.

    528:

    Sadly, the Smokejumpers site is not shipping anyting at the moment, and it reads to me as though they may not do it again.

    529:

    And (some?) boreal forests may be kind of like that, but the adaptations aren't so obviously purposeful, and it's more a case of "evolved to cope when it does occasionally happen, but aren't really into it" than "evolved to need it to happen quite often and make sure it does"; so it's all a bit unclear and the research can't say anything more definite than "may be" at the moment.

    That turns out not to be the case.

    In boreal forests, the complete opposite is true. Fires are frequent and their ecological influence at all levels—species, stand and landscape—drives boreal forest vegetation dynamics. This in turn affects the movement of wildlife populations, whose need for food and cover means they must relocate as the forest patterns change.

    The diversity of the forest mosaic is largely the result of many fires occurring on the landscape over a long period of time. These fires have varied in frequency, intensity, severity, size, shape and season of burn.

    The biodiversity of northern circumpolar boreal forests is largely a fire-induced diversity—sometimes termed “pyrodiversity”.

    https://natural-resources.canada.ca/our-natural-resources/forests/wildland-fires-insects-disturbances/forest-fires/fire-ecology/13149

    Note especially the following, in terms of "need it to happen":

    Jack pine and lodgepole pine have serotinous cones (protected by a waxy coating) that require the heat of fire to release their seeds. Fire also produces favourable conditions for the seeds of these pines to germinate. Nutrients are released in the soil, mineral soil is exposed, competing species are eliminated and the amount of sunlight on the forest floor is increased. Both jack and lodgepole pine depend on fire to regenerate.

    530:

    I’m playing around with a future setting ~115~150 yr from now and speculating which warmed up lands in Canada, Siberia, Scandinavia and maybe the sub-Antarctic islands and the Antarctic peninsula might be suitable for human activity of some sort (agricultural, pastoral) and what would be needed for that.

    Soil. The Canadian Shield is a few inches of poor soil on top of granite.

    531:

    Whether this applies to the boreal forest and Canadian fires I don't know.

    It does.

    The problem… among the problems with a managed fire approach is that a prescribed burn that gets out of control opens up the agency to lawsuits, while letting things get so bad that the eventual fire is much bigger doesn't. Small burns are done, but nothing on the scale needed to make a dent in the accumulated deadwood.

    The problem isn't scientific, but legal and budgetary.

    Indigenous groups are making some headway in using fire as a tool to manage forests, rather than the Smokey the Bear approach.

    532:

    It might be easier to start with energy released by fire divided by volume of water turned to steam to get a rough mass of water you have to move into the fire.

    You don't try to extinguish the flame front if it's established. No point. You use water to wet fuel in advance to it doesn't ignite, or extinguish smouldering fuel in places the flame front has passed.

    533:

    Well no I don't. But other people seem to have the idea that moving enough water to soak many square kilometres is quite straightforward. "just" supplying exactly as much water as is needed to counter the energy released by an actual fire is a thought experiment to show how unrealistic the idea is.

    There's a whole lot of "if you're doing this for real it's actually easier", because the people who are out maintaining the pumps and irrigation systems can also keep an eye out for fires, so they can be fought while they're small. And the scale of "stuff" required to move gigalitres of water over a few kilometres every hour means that small fires can be fought very vigorously indeed.

    But you still have the basic problem that you need the "stuff" to be available quickly over a large area. So supersonic heavy lift VTOL aircraft, or lots of slower ones spread out, or rather extremely lots of local pumping stations connected by a series of tubes.

    I grew up with pine plantations in Aotearoa and saw a few defended sites. They used "unlimited" local aquifer water to wet down areas around critical infrastructure but they seemed to use a lot of water on a very small area. Think "the grassy area around the fire station" not "the city of Canberra" (to name somewhere that had bushfire issues recently). But it was still more "building covered in sprinklers" rather than "gun irrigation units wetting down 100m around the building". And very definitely not "helicopter with a bucket on a string".

    534:

    The water / mass / area problem ...
    Let's take a small, simple example, shall we?

    A standard Brit Allotment plot is approximately 25 * 10 metres - 250 m2, right?
    10mm ( = 0.01m ) of rain is not, actually a lot, since 12.5 mm = 1/2", approx.
    Multiply that up & you get 2.5 m3 of water - 2.5 tonnes

    And the quivalent of 10mm of rain is NOT going to put out any significant wildfire ... the logistics of simply carrying the stuff to any remote location is simply an absolute non-starter.
    ....
    And Moz has said something very similar, whilst I was typing this ....

    535:

    It depends. Few of the Eurasian temperate forests require fire, and some are replaced by other ecologies after major fires. Siberian forests are dominated by larches, which I don't think benefit from fire. And note that pretty well every northern Eurasian ecology is recent (i.e. post glacial), in the places they occur; the British Isles is extreme, where most are only a few hundred years old, and essentially none more than a few thousand.

    Heteromeles is misleading about the 'wisdom of the ancients' - few such stable, human-controlled pyrogenic ecologies were planned, and many of them were seriously harmful to the previous ecologies. The Sahel and Mediterranean coast of Africa is the most notorious example, but we could also ask what happened to the north American and Australian megafauna.

    536:

    Australia is covered in little solar powered phone stations ... although many people in remote areas would disagree because they experience low/no phone reception every day.

    That reminded me of a proposal for a military battlefield communications system that involved repeater stations that could be deployed from artillery pieces. Satcoms turned out to be a better alternative, in the end.

    537:

    11 yr old is "long in the tooth"?

    5" thick. Power hogs. 1080i resolution. Maybe one was 1080p. Getting dim as the back lights burned out.

    And as I said, the sound in one would take 10 to 30 minutes to start working after turning on and at times changing input sources.

    I'm not one to toss things out just to buy new. Just ask my wife. But these were wearing out. I still have a 3 19" older flat screens because no one else would want them but I fire them up every now and them for a specific purpose.

    My autos typically last me past 200K miles for me. And the 24 inch display I'm looking at just now was made in 2005.(But it is starting to get too dim.)

    Those TVs were getting long in the tooth.

    538:

    I'm not claiming any expertise in this, just imagining how some existing tech might be repurposed.

    I used to be closer to you in this thinking. But as I dig into such things reality bites at times.

    Diesel and gasoline go bad so you can't just store them. Use it or loose it. (Talk to anyone responsible for large emergency generators and having to regularly cycle through fuel before it goes bad is a huge ongoing cost.) And dumping it out the back gate is frowned on unlike 100 years ago.

    As I said earlier, the US Army logistical operations figured out that flying in fuel cost them $100/gal in south central Asia. So a bit cheaper here in N. Am. but still the major costs are in just keeping the supply line open and all the storage needed at various places. Deuce and a half trucks full of 5 gallon cans doesn't work in the area. (Red Ball Express anyone?)

    Float plane can get people and personal gear into a lot of lakes. But lakes where landing a float plan that can carry such pumps and the associated logistics are likely much less numerous and likely not very well sited to where the equipment is needed.

    539:

    rabbits that die off in the dry but breed like locusts when it's wet.

    I got curious about how fast the rabbits around me in the eastern US breed. 3 to 8 per litter. Or more. Dudes can start copulating at 3 months. Ladies at 6 months and can do a new litter every two months.

    And I have neighbors who want to pay $1000 or more to "rescue" abandoned baby rabbits. Rabbits are food breeding machines for bigger animals. But don't offend people by saying such.

    540:

    Pigeon mentioned Australian vegetation that evolved to require fire. I was pointing out that the same applies in the boreal forests. Without fires, jack pine and lodgepole pine cones won't open. They evolved to require fire. Other plants, such as redberry and coffeeberry, require fire for their seeds to germinate.

    Ponderosa pines have thicker bark which is fire-resistant, so they can survive low-intensity fires which burn through and clear the deadwood at ground level. Back when forest management started a ponderosa forest was called an 'asbestos forest' because it was so easy to put out the first there (because there was little to burn at ground level, and the trees didn't catch easily. Once fire suppression started the ground beneath them because cluttered with fuel, and when fires did happen they were longer and hotter, and the trees themselves were damaged or caught fire. Without periodic small fires you need to follow Trump's advice and rake the forest or you are setting yourself up for a larger destructive fire that will kill the ponderosas (some of which may be centuries old).

    541:

    That reminded me of a proposal for a military battlefield communications system that involved repeater stations that could be deployed from artillery pieces. Satcoms turned out to be a better alternative, in the end.

    I have to wonder if the person/group who came up with this came up through the ranks in artillery.

    When you have a hammer in your hand....

    542:

    Rabbits are food breeding machines for bigger animals.

    Yummy food-breeding machines. During the war my grandparents kept rabbits as a source of unrationed meat, feeding them garden waste.

    543:

    There are reports from the first Europeans that showed up in the area south of the Great Lakes and north of the Ohio River. The stories were that in many places you could drive a wagon through the wooded areas due to the lack of ground clutter. And that the locals seemed to be doing planned burns.

    But the documentation is thin to say the least. Most beaver pelt hunters or similar in the 1600s or early 1700s didn't keep detailed journals.

    544:

    Mine is older than that, and still works without problems. Yours is not so much long in the tooth, as just plain crappy - yes, I agree that most modern electronics is.

    545:

    And I was pointing out that your statement as you phrased it was misleading to the point of being fallacious; you have just repeated it. No, NOT "the boreal forests" but "the north American" boreal forests. The whole world isn't like America, you know!

    546:

    Talking, as per the headline: "pass" or FAIL
    I've only just learnt about this massive FAIL - n Florida, natch.
    Was this unintended consequences, or a whoopsie or a deliberate "We didn't think of that, but it's convenient, what a surprise (not) moment?

    b.t.w. - how long has it taken news of this insanity to cross the Atlantic, or is it actually "new news"?

    547:

    Florida has passed a law allowing just one parent (maybe not even a parent) object to a book in a school. Which means it gets pulled and then a review has to be done. At an incredible waste of time and money.

    Which has led to all kinds of stupid things. And a few cases of the Bible and similar being pulled for review. Basically it is turning into a tit for tat fight.

    At some point I expect DeSantis to implode. But Florida politics is driven be two forces just now. Old farts make up way more people than in most states after decades of retirements to sunshine. And the huge Cuban descended population has been getting fed up with the D's for a while now. So, like your Tories for the last decade or more, the R's in Florida are somewhat locked into power. Even when they do stupid things. The pendulum will swing. But it might take a while.

    Also, the governor, DeSantis seems to be doing his best to use a run for President to show he is just plain whacky.

    548:

    Correction accepted. I thought it obvious that I was talking about North America (specifically Canada) from earlier posts but I should have clarified that.

    Canadian boreal forests are adapted to periodic fires, with some species requiring fire to complete their life cycles. Almost half of Canadian forest fires are caused by lightning, so no human intervention needed for this to evolve.

    549:

    Heteromeles or anyone else who knows.

    In the US or Europe, I'm curious as to how many health care workers are needed per person in the population? And how that applies to the 60-80s and 80s-100s?

    Only asking Heteromeles as he seems to be a fountain of such information due to his wife.

    If research is needed, I'll do that. I'm about to head down a rabbit hole.

    550:

    One perhaps underappreciated side effect of the ever-hotter bushfires in the state of Victoria, Australia, is losing the temperate forest (including old-growth rainforest) in the southern part of the state. Many Australian plants require fires to germinate, but many are harmed by the high temperatures, in particular those remnants of climates past.

    551:

    In the US or Europe, I'm curious as to how many health care workers are needed per person in the population? And how that applies to the 60-80s and 80s-100s?

    Have fun in the rabbit hole, because I don't think your question is answerable without a lot more definition. Here are a few issues:

    Who counts as a health care worker? Draw the line where you see fit: Doctor, PA, RN, LVN, nurse's aide, pharmacist, pharmacy tech, pharmacy buyer, pathologist, lab tech, janitorial staff, security, food service, management, EMT, home health care nurse, caregiver, psychologist, psychiatrist, orthodontist, dentist, dental technician, receptionist, IT tech, hospital engineer, acupuncturist, chiropractor, masseuse, insurance worker, malpractice lawyer...etc. Where do you draw the line? Note that I've interacted with almost all of these people in the last decade while dealing with someone's health issues.

    Then you add in the medical subspecialties. I was in the office of a doctor who specializes in plastic surgery, hand surgery, and wound care. There I got to listen to his receptionist field a call from someone who'd messed up their wrist and probably needed surgery. The receptionist had to explain that the doctor might not be able to help them, as arm repair was the realm of orthopedists, hand surgery was different specialty, and without an exam, it wouldn't be clear which one was needed--maybe both. This may sound daft, but hand surgery requires a lot of fiddly precision, while working with major bones and joints requires a lot of strength (orthopedists are usually the hospital jocks well into their 60s. They have to be strong and have a lot of endurance to rebuild joints and bones surrounded by heavy muscles). So two very different kinds of doctors. All these specialties can be needed, but not every town can have all of them--there simply aren't enough local patients to keep the specialists in business. So the skilled weirdos locate near transit hubs, so patients can get to them, sometimes from all over the world. I'm lucky to be in a city that specializes in medicine, but even here, some people have to go elsewhere to get therapy for a specific condition.

    Then there are conditions. During the pandemic we needed epidemiologists and infectious disease specialist by the planeload. Now we'll need emergency doctors who are up on treating heat-related problems. Ukraine needs trauma doctors, as does any place caught by an earthquake. And so it goes.

    So have fun rabbit holing! The answer you'll find is that numbers are higher in children, decrease in young adults (except for ob-gyn), then start creeping up in middle age and spike at the end of life. Quantifying this will take some work, unless someone's done it already.

    552:

    RE: Barbie movie

    I found out the old woman who talks to Barbie in the park is Barbara Handler Segal (aka the REAL Barbie - Ruth Handler's daughter she named the doll after). Cool beans.

    Also, the reich-wingnuts are FREAKING OUT over the Barbie movie being WOKE! That makes me feel good too.

    553:

    More definition.

    Washington Post has an article with a web app that shows the number of "workers" in the US at various points in your life if you enter your birth year.

    So I'm wondering just the percentage of those who will be taking care of our health compared to other things. Like smelting steel, mopping floors, programming the latest wiz bang OS feature, or whatever else.

    At first glance without knowing any of the stats for medical people (define as you wish) it looks like 1/2 of the US work force will be taking care of us old farts. Well maybe not 1/2 but a LOT.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2023/aging-america-retirees-workforce-economy/

    554:

    One perhaps underappreciated side effect of the ever-hotter bushfires in the state of Victoria, Australia, is losing the temperate forest (including old-growth rainforest) in the southern part of the state. Many Australian plants require fires to germinate, but many are harmed by the high temperatures, in particular those remnants of climates past.

    Just a note: I'm trying to avoid rabbit-holing on plant fire ecology right now, because it's complicated and contingent on circumstances. And I'm assuming most of you want to keep your brains from leaving you skulls due to terminal boredom and information overload?

    555:

    H @ 551
    Well, in all of Europe, you can completely forget "Insurance worker" - And "Malpractice Lawers" do exist, but they're as rare as Rocking-Horse shit ...

    John S
    Unfortunately, AIUI, the "Barbie" film has been totally banned in Vietnam.
    Because it seems to accept the PRC's claim to all the islands in the "S China Sea" - oops.

    556:

    YOu can add community support worker, outreach worker, social worker. Much of what they do helps keep people from needing the acute care system. Dietitian, physical education teacher, gym trainers etc. etc. Mental health care has been and continues to be the most neglected area and the most expensive to neglect, particularly if you understand addiction to be a mental health issue.

    All of the above are underfunded, often dramatically, and even more so in polities run by neoliberals who cannot seem to grasp the notion of preventive health care. I speak from experience having worked as a community support worker and being married to a person who has made a career in preventive health policy advocacy (i.e. make bike lanes safe and people will use them, saving a fortune in long-term acute care costs).

    The rest of the world accepts as a given that the US is an edge case of health care insanity where profit is the central motivator, and that which does not provide profits does not get provided. Here in Canada that wildly dysfunctional system (which kills many of its citizens) is used as a way to pretend our system does not have its own issues. 'At least we aren't as badly off as those poor buggers' is not the greatest catch line.

    557:

    At first glance without knowing any of the stats for medical people (define as you wish) it looks like 1/2 of the US work force will be taking care of us old farts. Well maybe not 1/2 but a LOT.

    Well, if we had any sense in the US, we'd call it climate-based immigration. Actively recruit young healthcare professionals from countries hammered by climate change and shrinking employment opportunities--the Philippines, Nigeria, England, etc.--and make it easy for them to set up shop and get citizenship in the US. Then they spend their careers ushering us BoomXers into the great beyond, and take over this country as things start to get really bad here....

    558:

    Then they spend their careers ushering us BoomXers into the great beyond, and take over this country as things start to get really bad here....

    What I've noticed in the various issues around here that all tie into zoning in some degree or another... (illegal immigration, NIMBY, etc...)

    The BoomXers are determined to force a life on most everyone younger to them even as they die off. I think if it came down to it they'd rather die swimming in their own sewage before allowing health care workers from somewhere else to come care for them. Well at least without a visa with a non changeable expiration date.

    In my cynical moods at least.

    I get the impression that the hard and even medium core Brexiters have similar feelings about things in the UK.

    559:

    I said that and more a while back:

    https://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2023/06/go-away-muse-youre-drunk-again.html#comment-2172665

    While cycle lanes may be a solution in the underpopulated wild west of the USA, I doubt it even there. The reason is that most accidents occur at junctions.

    In the UK, psychle farcilities are a fucking disaster, because there's no room to build an alternate road system, even if we did deal with the junction problem (*). We have had over 28 years of policy being to perpetrate those at every opportunity, as well as excluding cars from a few city centres, and it had the effect (up to COVID) of increasing the miles cycled by 1.4% a year, as distinct from the car's 0.7%, and it is only 20% of what it was in 1950. At that rate, it will take only 666 years to achieve parity with cars ....

    But an equally or even worse problem is now junk food (+), as promoted by the supermarkets that have driven almost every other food retailer out of business. In addition to them being allowed exemption from restrictions on car parking, so that they are a major cause of unnecessary car trips.

    (*) As a vulnerable cyclist, I had to give up after 25 years of commuting by bicycle when they perpetrated them on my route into work. That has been a fairly common experience. Now I am retired, I choose routes that don't have them!

    (+) I.e. ultraprocessed, high fat, high sugar etc.

    560:

    David L @ 558
    Well, I was born in 1946, which makes me peak "BoomX"
    And you are talking bollocks.

    561:

    About what?

    My impression of the Brexiters?

    Or of US boomers?

    562:

    For once I agree with Greg. Most of my wife's coworkers in the hospital are immigrants. The only difference between the scenario I posited about hiring medicos from overseas and the local reality is that most got their medical education here, though not all.

    563:

    My point is that the anti immigration sentiment in the US is concentrated in the Boomers and older. And it was them and their kids and their kids who did NOT have kids at the 2.4 or whatever the rate need to keep things steady. So we're aging rapidly, and don't want to allow immigration, and there are no workers to growing up to take up the slack.

    And with heath care one of those things that has to be done, even if very crappy, to keep bodies out of the street, more and more of the "workers" will be doing health care. Relative to the other job counts.

    From the WaPo article. I was born in 1954. And yes these are US numbers. Based on current trends and no changes in immigration into the US:

    1974 5.1 workers per retiree

    2014 4.3 workers per retiree

    2054 2.1 workers per retiree

    Once you take out the health care workers (all of them), who is left? Sorry but I don't expect a robot to be able to change my diaper in 2054. But maybe I'm wrong.

    I suspect the numbers in the UK and EU are similar but different. The boomers were a product of WWII and the booming US economy in the 10-15 years after it. Europe had a different trajectory. But still a boom but a bit later and different I think.

    564:

    Geoff Hart @ 514:

    DavidL noted: "... Quebec has almost a half million lakes... [I] am wondering whether it would be worth considering installing pumps near these lakes to help fight wild fires."

    I'll wait while you (i) do the math for the cost of half a million pumps plus (ii) calculate the fuel costs of transporting them throughout Quebec's ca. 1.5 million km^2. Then maintaining them annually to ensure they're still working when you arrive at the lakes. This is why the firefighters bring the pumps with them.

    No reason permanent pumps couldn't be solar powered if there's a significant community nearby that it's serving.

    OTOH, in rural North Carolina Fire Departments often have designated fire water points with permanent "stand pipes" at local farm ponds where the pumper can attach and fill water trucks & tanks. These would probably work as well as fixed pumps & are a lot cheaper.

    If they're in place, mapped & marked, fire fighters could deploy more quickly anywhere the fire was amenable to being fought with sprayed water ... I'm pretty sure they have the lakes marked out where the scooper planes can refill on the fly.

    565:

    Greg Tingey @ 546:

    Talking, as per the headline: "pass" or FAIL
    I've only just learnt about this massive FAIL - n Florida, natch.
    Was this unintended consequences, or a whoopsie or a deliberate "We didn't think of that, but it's convenient, what a surprise (not) moment?

    More likely an "unforeseen" consequence, but not necessarily "unintended".

    b.t.w. - how long has it taken news of this insanity to cross the Atlantic, or is it actually "new news"?

    OP-ED in a in a specialty publication from March of this year. The NEWS probably made it across the Atlantic contemporaneously, but you didn't pick up on it at the time.

    I do remember seeing something about it at the time, but ANOTHER "something stupid is happening in FloriDUH" ain't really "news" around here anymore.

    566:

    Greg Tingey @ 555:

    John S
    Unfortunately, AIUI, the "Barbie" film has been totally banned in Vietnam.
    Because it seems to accept the PRC's claim to all the islands in the "S China Sea" - oops.

    As I understand it "Barbie" is NOT the first film banned by Vietnam because it included that outdated Chinese map. My guess is the studio and the film makers didn't even realize the "lines" were controversial (or had ANY meaning).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7qLjplYiPE

    It's not even a real map.

    567:

    So I'm wondering just the percentage of those who will be taking care of our health compared to other things. Like smelting steel, mopping floors, programming the latest wiz bang OS feature, or whatever else.

    The way we usually express this in health service planning is healthcare expenditure (all sources) as a percentage GDP (per capita if you want to compare countries). It's been steadily increasing everywhere for decades, although the USA is an outlier due to the overheads with the way healthcare funding and insurance works there. GDP is a blunt instrument, but that's because it's an aggregate and that means it's inherently empirical, so it filters out any epistemic politics (sadly it can't eliminate all of the politics), which is helpful. For most OECD countries this has doubled since 1980, with most OECD countries in the West spending around 10% currently, the USA being an outlier at nearly 17%. NB the USA peaked at nearly 19% in 2020. See the OECD data site for more details. So for the USA in particular, healthcare currently accounts for nearly 17% of economic activity.

    Aging populations in the West (and elsewhere) are part of the issue, but as a trend it's overdetermined. Several of the possible causes are not independent. For instance new treatments are more expensive, so lead to more expenditure, but lead to better outcomes, which helps drive the aging population, which leads to more expenditure. Climate change is also a driver, as we've discussed here, with more zoonotic disease and really just a great big variety buffet of new public health emergencies on the horizon. Which might have a negative effect on aging populations, for all the wrong reasons.

    What we are doing now is trying to find more efficient ways to deliver healthcare at the right level and at the right time. Genuine community and preventative health measures are expensive and hard to fund (use data to identify cohorts of people with a high risk of an emergency department presentation and smother them with all the early preventative care they can handle), while the ones that are politically appealing tend into blame and education ("it's your fault that you are overweight, here is some information to make you feel worse about yourself"), where usually the issue is lack of access to suitable care prior to acute care. The in between is sort of getting momentum, Telehealth got enough of a publicity plug during covid that most people can see the benefit and it's especially useful for rural and remote. Various types of virtual care, which has a range of forms though things as simple as risk assessment questionnaires to triage cases for specialist attention deliver a lot of value for the money (e.g. in Queensland there are zero specialist gerontologists north of Noosa, but older people account for a high proportion of hospital visits in the north... local clinical staff use questionnaire based tools to assess who needs to be transported to Brisbane, or who needs a Telehealth consultation with a specialist).

    But mostly I'm reminded of Douglas Adams. Healthcare isn't a paperclip maximiser, but it does have all the early warning signs of a Shoe Event Horizon.

    568:

    Agree with all of that.

    My curiosity is about the body count. At some point if too much of the population of any one country (say the US) is all tied up in health care the economy could (will?) crash. The remaining bodies likely can't generate enough economic activity to keep things running.

    Which is where most of my age related peers seem to want us to go. But to them it's a river in Egypt.

    569:

    I once looked at working in the US as a nurse and found two major hurdles. You couldn't just sit the nursing test, you had to be sponsored by an employer first; apparently this cost the would-be employer around $10,000 at the time. This, by the way, being a time when they were offering nurse 5 figure signing bonuses. The other hurdle was that as I am not American in 48 States I had to take what was basically an English test. The two States that recognised that there are people outside America with English as their native language? Nevada and Arkansas. After further consideration I realised I would never fit into a for-profit health system anyway.

    570:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkJlTKUaF3Q Economics Explained talks about how/why boomers are impoverishing everyone else (it's democracy in action!) and notes that #notallboomers (not least that only some of them are billionaires). There's wider factors, like the partly-coincidental fossil fuel powered boom during that generation, with a different age profile among Chinese billionaires 9for example).

    But "rational economic actors" are only partly mythical, people really do decide in aggregate that they will have fewer children because they can't afford them. And so on. Which leads to David L's point that boomers constructed the demographic crash, and if they don't like the result they should have thought about that before they did it.

    571:

    I get the impression that the hard and even medium core Brexiters have similar feelings about things in the UK.

    Well, at least one prominent Brexiteer has admitted that Britain needs EU workers.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/08/tory-brexiter-george-eustice-visas-young-eu-workers-labour-shortage

    Of course, his solution is 2-year work visas for workers under 35. So yeah, nothing that would lead to those horrible foreigners actually being able to move there…

    573:

    Rbt Prior
    Even so for an ex-UKIP - now tory even to admit that is an admission of complete & Utter failure, even though he is, of course, too stupid to realise that ....

    Uncle Stinky
    Total madness - what ultra-right-wing &/oir fascist aims does this particular ruling further, is the obvious question.
    I can't see how it profits them, in the short term.
    Long-term, of course, it legalises the stalking of anyone labelled "librul" by thugs with guns & baseball bats

    574:

    So have fun rabbit holing!

    It's an entire warren!

    I mean, 1960-1980 saw an epochal shift in at least two areas of medicine: antipsychotic meds arrived with a bang (and the old insane asylum system was largely shut down), and then there was oncology. Before 1960, cancer was mostly not treatable: if it was a benign solid tissue tumour the surgeons could whip it out, but metastatic cancers, or soft tissue ones, were a death sentence. Then chemotherapy agents began to show up and by 1980 a lot of diseases which had previously been rapidly lethal within single-digit months were now treatable. But the incidence of cancer was also rising, largely due to cigarette smoking but also tolerance of environmental pollutants. So we had far more people with lung cancer, and more people with cancer living longer.

    Today ... lung cancer rates are way down (less smoking), but also people with cancer have access (one hopes) to new immunotherapies with in some cases near-miraculous results. So we have more cancer survivors.

    And then there's the huge rise in illegal drugs use. Are addiction services/treatment part of medical care?

    And then there's old age homes. Is residential care for Alzheimer's patients medical care?

    Etc.

    575:

    And, for example, some chemo drugs are prescriptible for other uses; For example they can be used to alleviate the swelling associated with severe attacks of gout (best only do this when awaiting initial blood tests?).

    576:

    Don't forget anti-hypertensives, and even antibiotics. The latter (and cancer treatment) don't make all that much difference to life expectancies, but do increase the number of elderly people who hang on through illnesses that would have previously been fatal. It's a damn good question at which point one needs to say "enough is enough".

    To paws4thot: the problem with chemotherapy and related therapies always have been (even in the calomel days - yes, it's that old) to kill the disease without killing the patient. Drugs like quinine can be regarded in the same light - my hearing and balance loss may be due to it. For many decades, the objective of cancer research has been to find treatments that are less toxic, even more than ones that are more effective.

    This strongly affects the treatment of the elderly. As a fairly fit 74 year old, I had to stop after 75% of the 'standard' treatment with carboplatin/pemextrexed - had I been significantly older and frail, they wouldn't have even tried it, and I would already be dead.

    577:

    And then there's old age homes. Is residential care for Alzheimer's patients medical care?

    Yes. To my rabbit hole project.

    Per the WaPo article there will be 3.4 workers per retiree when in 2024 and 3.0 in 2034. Subtract out all the health care, elderly care, medical researchers, physical therapists, whatever, and just how many workers per retiree will be left?

    The shortages are real and now. And many in the US are in total denial about why jobs are not being filled. (Biden is a big choice for many.)

    In a smaller town, Wendell, NC, a less than 1 hour drive on "fast roads" from the center of Raleigh NC McDonalds is having to pay $15/hr as a starting wage. Go down the road to just this side of Rocky Mount, again less than an hour's drive, and they only have to offer $10/hr. But no one wants to live in Rocky Mount compared to Raleigh. Wendell is getting built out for the people who just don't have the money to live in Raleigh.

    So we have a shortage of workers in general in the places people want to live. And where they don't want to live the workers, to be blunt, are not going to be tech workers. They want factory jobs and such but those are going away.

    Anyway, back to my main point, who will be left if over half the economy winds up doing health care. At least by body count.

    578:

    I very much disagree. What Supreme Court did in effect is defined stalking. Given that it is now "stalking" only if the stalker is aware that the target perceives his actions as threatening, all the target has to do is send the stalker an email saying "I perceive your actions as threatening", and he no longer has a right to keep going.

    Greg @573: Justice Elena Kagan is anything but "ultra-right-wing &/oir fascist". And I am certain she thought of what I just wrote.

    579:

    Anyway, back to my main point, who will be left if over half the economy winds up doing health care. At least by body count.

    Let's assume this won't happen, and ask what that means for how people will age and die in the next 20 years. And what that means for everyone else.

    Here's an example ( https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2023-07-09/kidney-donation-disease-transplant-ethics-national-organ-transplant-law ) arguing for compensating living kidney donors. Part of the argument is that end-stage kidney disease costs Medicare (part of the US government) $50 billion annually, more than the US Marine Corps budget, and every successful transplant saves society (not Medicare) $1.6 million.

    I'm not going to go into the ethics of their proposal. What I will do is to point out that the money isn't mana being thrown into magical cures. It's paying people's livelihoods, supporting middle class livelihoods, and enriching various investors. What they're proposing is drastically reducing a sector of healthcare (with layoffs of specialists, something every engineer here knows all to well), and spending the money elsewhere.

    That's a better way to think of it. What's the money going to flow to if it doesn't go there?

    Those fancy new monoclonal antibody cancer drugs are "miracle cures" if they work on you. They also can cost well over $200,000 per course of treatment, and some aren't (fully) covered by insurance or Medicare. How much is it worth for a cancer victim to live? And with what quality of life? And for how long? And at what cost to their family?

    Or, to put it bluntly, should a boomer bankrupt their family for another year of life? It may mean their children never own a home because they inherit debt instead of wealth, their grandkids are stuck in a lower economic tier, and so on. Suffer for a few months, die, and leave your family with something to use, or draw it out, give your money to healthcare, and leave your family with debt?

    There's also the vast waste and junk stream the medical industry generates. How do you recycle used dressings infected with MRSA? Elder medical care generates a lot of waste and requires a lot of specialized gadgets that tend to be trashed afterwards. Is this mountain of garbage essential?

    Note that these aren't academic questions for me. I'm caring for an elderly mother who's entering the expensive stage of her life, and I'm living with an incurable disease. What can I do, and of the things I can do, what should I do?

    580:

    Or, to put it bluntly, should a boomer bankrupt their family for another year of life?

    I've told my kids in no uncertain terms, "NO!!!".

    Hopefully their emotions will not take over. (And compared to me and my wife they're already very well off.)

    Note that these aren't academic questions for me. I'm caring for an elderly mother who's entering the expensive stage of her life, and I'm living with an incurable disease. What can I do, and of the things I can do, what should I do?

    Hopefully you don't have other family members with wildly differing options of what to do. With my mother, me and the brothers were 95% aligned and the 5% was most always quickly resolved. With my mother in law, well, things got ugly and still are 5 years after her death.

    Best wishes in a tough situation.

    581:

    medical care generates a lot of waste and requires a lot of specialized gadgets that tend to be trashed afterwards. Is this mountain of garbage essential?

    US oriented comment here. I'm curious as to how this happens in Europe.

    Well going back 20 years ago in the US dentists up through hospitals mostly sterilized their own things. Needles, bottles, anything that could go into an autoclave. THEN, our local super star hospital system, Duke, assigned the job down to the lowest wage they had and that person used elevator hydraulic fluid instead of the medical soap. Lawsuits all over the country and anyone with a post procedure infection nation wide wanted to know if the "stuff" was properly cleaned.

    Now everyone, dentists to hospitals, order sterilized kits specific to a procedure or group of procedures. Those kits are opened at the time of need. Dentist do this with the metal tooth scrapers using in a cleaning. I suspect insurance companies mandate such. And anything that could be disposable became such. So costs went up across the board. Is there a solution to reduce the waste stream or costs? In reality I suspect not. Absent a major tsunami type crisis.

    582:

    As you say. My 'living will' contains the following:

    The following are the minimum capacities that I regard as making life tolerable, and I consent to treatment only if there is an estimated probability of at least one in ten of recovering sufficiently to be able to do all of them. Recovering sufficiently to do most of them is not enough; they are all required.

    a) To be able to feed and care for myself, without help and in ordinary housing, for periods of at least three days, and b) to be able to to travel at least two miles over ordinary pavements and adequate footpaths without human assistance, and c) To be able to communicate sufficiently well (in speech or writing) to arrange routine domestic affairs and shop for routine requirements, and d) to be able to read ordinary books in ordinary print, and e) to be able to converse (at least by using a computer to transmit and receive text) about my areas of interest at the level of a university graduate.
    583:

    ilya187 @ 578
    A VERY interesting interpretation.
    We will have to see how this plays out, won't we?

    H @ 579
    and some aren't (fully) covered by insurance or Medicare.
    ONLY in the backward, primitive & cruel USA, yes?
    Or, to put it bluntly, should a boomer bankrupt their family for another year of life?
    AGAIN: ONLY in the backward, primitive & cruel USA, yes?
    Your society will implode, completely, unless something serious & practical is done about this, because it's economically unsustainable.

    584:

    A VERY interesting interpretation.

    I can't claim authorship of it. I heard it from a civil rights lawyer. He was actually pretty excited by the decision, and said it will make prosecuting stalkers easier, not harder, as long as the victim takes some minimal steps to make their perception of fear known.

    585:

    Here's an example ( https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2023-07-09/kidney-donation-disease-transplant-ethics-national-organ-transplant-law ) arguing for compensating living kidney donors.

    Two state senators proposed a law to incentivize prisoners to donate by giving them small reductions in their sentences.

    https://impactethics.ca/2023/02/24/a-real-prisoners-dilemma-organ-donation-for-reduced-sentences

    I can see no way this could go wrong. After all, the prisoners are legal adults who are free to make their own choices. Their body, their choice, right? (Yes, sarcasm.)

    Incidentally, both senators were Democrats.

    586:

    I'm stealing most of that (currently working on my own end-of-life documents, on the theory that the best time is well before they are needed).

    I will change the one you have about reading. I'm willing to read large-print books — I already enlarge the size of text on my iPad so that I can read for longer.

    587:

    Or, to put it bluntly, should a boomer bankrupt their family for another year of life?

    No, and in a civilized society that wouldn't be an individual-level choice.

    It is going to be a societal-level choice, though. How much of a socialized medical budget should go on end-of-live care? What about care for extremely premature babies? Treating injuries from high-risk recreational activities?

    Decades ago I heard an interview on CBC with the child of the doctor in charge of Public Health District #1 in Saskatchewan — the first socialized medicine in Canada. He had a fixed budget, and had to decide how to spend it through the year to provide the greatest care for the greatest number, without knowing in advance how many people would get sick and injured. Apparently that meant some difficult choices.

    588:

    SFReader noted: "That's why the drones ... most to monitor and some to drop pumps and hoses into key areas on an as-needed basis. So a couple thousand of each would probably be a good start."

    Even a fairly minimalist approach is going to cost serious money, and it won't work particularly well. The real bottleneck isn't having enough pumps available: it's having enough trained personnel available to operate the pumps and getting them to a distant fire fast enough they have a hope of containing it. So the current strategy is predominantly to store the pumps with the people who will use them, and ship both to the field simultaneously. Much less expensive and works better. The locations of the bases where people are maintained until they're moved to a fire are carefully chose to optimize access to as many fires as possible.

    Yes, you could in theory install a solar-powered self-operated pump at every lake. Count the number of lakes and tell me (i) how much this will cost and (ii) how long it will take to build the pumps and ship them to the lakes. For bonus points, (iii) tell me how frequently you have to go maintain these pumps. Now you know why nobody is proposing this.

    SFReader: "You'd still need on the ground personnel."

    And as I noted, they're the constraint: there are too many large fires and not enough fire-fighters. This is why governments mobilize the army and why you see so many newspaper stories about firefighters being shipped between countries when one country has a surplus (fewer fires than expected) and another has a deficit (more fires). Again, you could propose robotic firefighters controlled by a small handful of trained personnel guiding them in the field, but now you're talking about SF, not current-technology engineering.

    SFReader: "Transportation costs - probably not that high"

    Calculate the distances and areas covered and you'll see why this is would be ruinously expensive. Also remember that most of the areas are inaccessible. The dense coniferous forests that cover most of northern North America aren't very friendly to aerial vehicles. In a lot of cases, there's literally nowhere to land, and if you try parachutes, your pumps are going to end up stuck in the tops of trees -- or sitting at the bottom of lakes and peat bogs.

    Don't get me wrong: Someone will eventually find uses for VTOL drones with sufficient range. But that doesn't solve the real problem, which is insufficient personnel and really long distances.

    SFReader: "Any thoughts about what type of tree replanting would work best there considering those parts of Canada are likely to continue to experience rising temps, drier conditions and stronger winds?"

    With the caveat that any answer to an ecological question that doesn't begin "it depends" and then discuss the dependencies is an oversimplification. Thus: It depends. G Ironically, tree planting is probably exactly the wrong solution in most cases. The problem with trees is that when they get dry enough, they burn, and they burn real good (particularly conifers, which are packed with all kinds of volatile and flammable organic materials). The high energy release is why firewood is still a major fuel in some parts of the world. Unfortunately, it's less helpful during wildfires. If we keep getting really bad droughts, and one of the scientists I work with has data suggesting this has been happening for nearly 100 years, you might find a few tree species that can survive fires rather than promoting them, but I wouldn't bet that it's a good solution. See above about how well dry wood burns.

    The better solution is what's called landscape ecology, and specifically landscape-scale fire management. Ajith Perera, formerly of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, has written extensively about this and other aspects of fire ecology. The basic notion is that you figure out what areas you want to protect, then manage the surrounding landscape to protect those areas. For example, you replace coniferous forests, which are highly combustible, with vegetation that doesn't burn so disastrously, such as grasses and some shrubs. Grasses burn easily, but the fire is low intensity compared to wood and does less damage. Problem: It takes a shit-ton of time and money and a lot of research to make sure you know what you're doing if you try landscape management. (See above re. "it depends".) But it works great in theory. As the old joke goes, we've solved the theory; the rest is an engineering problem.

    Anyway, the goal is to rearrange the landscape so that most fires that burn near protected areas burn themselves out before they pass the critical threshold at which they become unstoppable. This does actually happen in landscapes with lots of wetlands, like parts of northern Quebec and Ontario; parts of the boreal forest resemble a loaf of Swiss cheese with the holes filled with soaked sponges.

    SFReader: "Read some time ago that some of the giant redwoods and sequoia were in danger because there hadn't been enough natural fires for 40 or so years."

    Yes and no. The regeneration has slowed down because there haven't been enough low-intensity fires to help the tree seedlings become established, but there's also a serious drought problem that is killing many of the adult trees. No adults, no seeds, thus no baby trees.

    589:

    Just read this joyous news in my local newspaper:

    Former prime minister Stephen Harper says he wants closer ties between right-leaning political parties including the Conservative Party of Canada and the Hungarian government, which has been accused of democratic backsliding.

    Harper chairs the International Democrat Union, a global alliance of right-leaning political parties that includes Canada’s Conservatives as well as the Fidesz Party led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

    The two met Thursday in Budapest, and Harper said on Twitter that they discussed “the importance of centre-right parties strengthening their collaboration.”

    https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2023/07/06/ex-pm-stephen-harper-seeks-closer-ties-with-hungarys-viktor-orbn.html

    What makes this really worrying is that Harper is less extreme than the current Conservative leader.

    Fellow Canadians, any thoughts?

    590:

    Because it seems to accept the PRC's claim to all the islands in the "S China Sea" - oops.

    I saw a still from the bit they banned the movie over.

    Seriously, the Vietnamese authorities are smoking crack.

    591:

    We have migrated to the beach-house, which a lot of my SF books have also done over the last 3½ decades.

    Inspired by the original topic I located Asimov's foundation (in Danish translation) and read it again, for the first time in probably 30 years.

    As expected, a very hard fail on the Bechdel Test.

    It also fails hard on stereotyping: Maiden, Mother & Crone + A woman of negotiable affection.

    But what really surprised me was the juxtaposition of (hyper)space ships and newspapers…

    592:

    in the UK, specifically Scotland, most of the kit will go to a Central Decontamination Unit either attached to a hospital, run by the NHS as a specialist entity, or operated by a private sector provider. Over the last couple of decades two things have happened. Firstly the profession and associated equipment have become much more specialised and better regulated and secondly there has been a trend towards pre-sterilsed disposable instruments for some applications, in the UK some of this has been driven by an extremely precautionary approach to avoiding the possibility of variant CJD transmission by surgical equipment, some of it to ensure that an orthopaedic drill (for example) is not blunted by previous use and some by convenience and the " ick" factor (my first job in a CDU was hand cleaning a couple of hundred gynaecology speculae prior to mechanical wash/disinfection on a hot summers afternoon and I'm not sorry they went to single use). Dental and podiatry equipment will be disposable or re useable depending on the cost and availabilty of CDU processing in the locality. Currently waste is disposed of by high temperature incineration "or an equivalent process" which can include deep landfill, though there are plans to reduce waste streams through the "green theatres initiative" which may involve reducing the amount of single use instruments if this can be shown to reduce waste (re useable equipment needs to be packed in multiple layers, its complicated). sorry if I'm boring everybody stupid but he did ask...

    593:

    He had a fixed budget, and had to decide how to spend it through the year to provide the greatest care for the greatest number, without knowing in advance how many people would get sick and injured. Apparently that meant some difficult choices.

    Oregon (I think it was) got into a big legal fight around 10 to 20 years ago over how to define quality of life and who gets care. If you're in a wheel chair is that a medical condition or a disability? If the later then it gets messy real fast when trying to make spending choices.

    594:

    I already enlarge the size of text on my iPad so that I can read for longer

    Been doing it for years, even reading on a phone. Not seeing page-turns as an overhead.

    I still see what EC means, though. Especially for textbooks, but also for fiction and regular reading, there's a real boon to being able to keep your finger (or other bookmark) in a page while turning ahead or back for some reference. The bookmarking function in ebook readers is often really good, but it's still a break in the flow that is much more disruptive than with a paper book. You end up with a bunch of bookmarks to manage and it doesn't make it as easy to get back to where you were as just flipping the pages back over. And I think web browsers have proved that "go back to that thing I was looking at just a moment ago" is a hard problem.

    595:

    Be my guest! Actually, the reading is only a convenient criterion, and I didn't say unassisted. I have c. 5.5 dioptres of short sight and, if I can't read 10pt print at 6" with a reading glass, I wouldn't be able to do even much gardening.

    596:

    I remember when injection needles were reused, and got blunt or even hooked :-( It's taken me 65 years to even mostly get over my wincing when they are used on me.

    597:

    As expected, a very hard fail on the Bechdel Test.

    A more interesting question, to me at least, is how does it read compared to the society in the US in the 50s?

    Today my father would be considered racist. But in the later 60s and early 70s his positions on desegregation, especially in our church, caused him to loose contact with many of his friends. So how should I and others judge him?

    This wasn't obvious to me at the time in my teens. It was only later as I assembled various puzzle pieces that were the memories of my youth that I realized what had happened. He never talked about it.

    Please. I'm not yelling at you. I just don't have time to re-read Foundation myself for a while. So I'm asking the question.

    598:

    That wasn't my main reason (see #595), but I agree with you. Also I read books that have never been digitised.

    599:

    "Fellow Canadians, any thoughts?"

    I have always disagreed with Harper on almost every topic of import, but I never doubted his intelligence or his reasonably sincere belief that he was doing the right thing. The fact that he was and remains horridly wrong on so very many issues is unfortunate.

    I am also fairly sure that the 'relatively' moderate policies he enacted while in government were defined by what he was fairly sure he could get away with. In a different context he'd have happily privatized health, education and everything else we hold dear.

    His various successors haven't been intelligent enough to keep the quiet parts quiet. The current instance is the worst yet (chronologically at least, Stockwell Day was cartoonishly stupid and ill fated). I sincerely hope that he fails in the next election, because he won't make it 10 feet away from the podium after his concession speech before he has a dozen knives in his back.

    As for the Fascist Internationale, I think our only hope is to form a counter. Brin's idea of autocratic oligarchy being the primary failure mode of human social structure carries some weight with me. I hope we can find a way out of that particular strange attractor.

    600:

    »A more interesting question, to me at least, is how does it read compared to the society in the US in the 50s?«

    I do not have a credible background to answer that: I was born more than a decade too late, and on the wrong side of the planet.

    (Also: It was common for Danish editions of literary works to translate more than language.)

    But as I said: The women are portrayed /very/ much as stereotypes and always and only advance the plot via the men.

    601:

    @Heteromeles: re: Hot Earth Dreams- Thank you!

    @Robert Prior: re Canadian Shield (thin soil): Thank you, too. I had considered that. I postulate that we get fusion power eventually (I don't say when) and its not down-scalable, so you have these gigantic fusion-powered terraforming machines grinding up rock and adding organic matter and trace minerals. I'm also thinking of converting some of the remaining tundra to mammoth steppe (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mammoth_steppe, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pleistocene_Park) complete with lazurofrmed and genegeneered megafauna. (This is background, not story.)

    602:

    What is wrong with the USA - or a lot of it, at any rate.
    Fascist-Christians, again & & ......
    - see also ...
    Rocketjps (edited) @ 599
    The Fascist Internationale, I think our only hope is to form a counter. Brin's idea of autocratic oligarchy being the primary failure mode of human social structure ...
    Is almost-certainly correct

    Do we want a list? The tories here, the rethuglicans in the US, Orban, Erdogan, Putin, Burma, Modi, Maduro - & that's off the top of my head in as long as it took me to type it.
    Depressing

    603:

    Siberia is 'interesting'. The megafauna died out when the forests took over the steppe. But, given climate change and Russia's problems (too numerous to list), it is likely that much of it will burn and the permafrost melt. God help us then, as it is one of the most important carbon sinks on the planet. But what will happen then?

    Some articles have said that it will become farmable, but I smelled uninformed optimism; others have said it won't be, but I smelled some anti-Russian prejudice; others have predicted a change from larch to pine; I haven't seen any that predicted a return to the steppe. I don't have a clue.

    604:

    Brin is partially mistaken: an equally common attractor is the single 'strong man' (of any sex), though autocratic societies tend to flip between oligarchies and individuals. In the UK, consider Thatcher or Blair versus the rest. The fact that the UK escaped that for a while in the 1950s to 1970s, but has fallen back into it (starting in the 1960s, mostly with Labour, Greg) is why I proposed a return to the sovereign in council. Not a particularly good long-term solution, but a potential escape from our current failed system.

    605:

    »Siberia is 'interesting'«

    More than you can possibly imagine...

    When I learned a bit of meteorology three decades ago, we learned about "the circumpolar circulation" as one of the major actors in /any/ planet's climate.

    Now that we have almost gotten rid of the arctic sea-ice, something not at all funny seems to be happening: It may not be a "circumpolar" as much as "circumglacial" phenomena, and it seems the northern one has grown a tendency to slip down over Greenland.

    Moving that weather system south over the Northern Atlantic has consequences, water which used to rain on Bergen may instead disembark in Scotland, and water when used to snow on top of Greenland may instead blow across the Northern Atlantic.

    On the other side, a lot of water which used to fall on agriculture in Russia may migrate north.

    The "good" news is these effects will probably be diluted a lot by the general havoc global warming is causing to the jetstreams.

    606:

    Thanks for that. It explains a lot of what is happening in the UK. But, if what are currently Siberian forests get less water (and higher temperatures), it is likely that the steppe will return, and we could reintroduce woolly mammoths, woolly rhinoceroses and steppe lions :-)

    607:

    I am rather closer to that, though a little later and in the UK. But the answer is more closely than might appear. Remember that most 'classic' SF stories of that type weren't about society in general and, even when they were, weren't about human-human interaction. They were about 'technology' (humans were often largely incidental), and the people who worked in that area in that era were mostly male. Yes, there were women, but not many, and most were exceptional in other ways, too.

    Writers like Ray Bradbury or John Christopher were very different.

    609:

    Oh, yes, and that's one reason that climatologists are despairing at the feebleness of the actions. No, net-zero by 2050 is NOT enough, even if organisations like the UK government weren't achieving net-zero, in progress, that is :-(

    610:

    If we're still critiquing the Foundation trilogy here are my thoughts after a recent re-read:

    1) Only the smurfs have a higher male to female ratio

    2) Everybody still smokes

    3) Nuclear power good, fossil fuels bad but where are the other renewables?

    4) It's a fight between a Tyrant (The Mule) and an Oligarchy (The Second Foundation) over who gets to rule the rest of humanity using mind control.

    5) What happened to the biological sciences? If I was the Mule I'd be forcing my scientists to find a cure to whatever it was that caused me to die in my 30's.

    Point 4 was the biggest surprise for me.

    I shall now re-read the Ancillary trilogy by Ann Leckie as a pallet cleanser before I read the latest publication in that universe.

    611:
    Today my father would be considered racist. But in the later 60s and early 70s his positions on desegregation, especially in our church, caused him to loose contact with many of his friends. So how should I and others judge him?

    The same way we judge our contemporaries? We grew up and were socialized in racist societies of various valences and virulences; we're judged on how we a) respond to and unlearn that and work to change our society to be less so, b) keep responding and learning as the world keeps changing.

    No-one says we have to boil people down to 'good' or 'bad.' We can try to hold the whole person in mind.

    (And most community who've been campaigning for their rights for a long time can think of a person for whom "they did amazing work on [fight B] but crystalized 30 years ago and are at best counterproductive on [fight F]" applies; investigating how they think and talk about them might prove interesting?)

    612:

    So how should I and others judge him?

    I was mostly being rhetorical. But thanks for the comment.

    I was in segregated schools until fall of 65. Then suddenly they showed up. I was 11. And I didn't interact at all as they are all put in the remdial classes. Due to the utter crappy education they'd been given up to that point. And they were not in my classes for the next 7 years till I was out of public education. Same reasons. About 5 years later there was a school assembly (which was very odd in hindsight) of all teachers and 900+ students over the playing of "Dixie" as a school song. I was more on the play it side at first. But then I heard so many of the pillars of the community make such utter stupid and racist remarks it make me realize just how screwed up things were. The remarks were not overly racist but very coded and in your face. (Dixie is a fun song to play at a sports game and pep rally. But the history is, ah, not good.)

    This was about the same time as my father got "spanked" in our church.

    And yet my brother, 4 years behind me, was in STEM classes with a fellow of a darker complexion who became the pediatrician for much of his classmates kids.

    It was a strange time. And I'm afraid we're looping.

    613:

    Point 5 is what broke my SOD even when I was a teenager. 100,000 years in the future, and they still need to control diabetes with insulin, and cut out inflamed appendix with a knife? Not to mention total lack of (or even any interest in) life extension?

    614:
    Not to mention total lack of (or even any interest in) life extension

    ISTR that somewhere in the sequel series, they tried ret-conning it as 'increasing lifespan makes societies collapse'. Maybe so. However, I'd be tempted to travel to one of the places that offered the 'increase lifespan' health care, then move back to my podunk planet that didn't allow such stuff.

    Lots of WTFs in the Foundation universe.

    615:

    Er, Asimov wrote the trilogy in 1941-1953. In that era, the future was PHYSICS - even chemistry took second place in believed importance. In my (bad) public school in the mid-1960s, biology was a subject only for people who couldn't hack mathematics and physics; that was typical, even then. In the 1940s, modern biomedicine wasn't even a subject in leading universities - DNA was only just being decoded, immunology was in its infancy, and penicillin had only just come into use (*). I will accept that an SF writer who was a biochemistry doctor should have done better, but he wasn't particularly good at envisaging the (actual) future.

    Point 4 has been a classic theme since time immemorial, though the mechanisms vary, and it is a very common situation in everyday life. I agree that Asimov's mechanisms lacked believability, but they were still better than most authors achieved in that era.

    Yes, the Foundation universe has dated, badly, but it's a little unfair to blame Asimov for that.

    (*) Appendectomy is still the best treatment for appendicitis for most people.

    616:

    Sorry, but you can't judge the past by today's standards.

    As historian Will Durant noted, we consider the Inquisition to be an atrocity and an abomination. The Spanish people considered each auto de fe to be a glorious victory for Christ.

    It was not imposed from above. It was demanded from below.

    What we often forget is many atrocities were wildly popular: killing undesirables in the Roman Colosseum, the beheadings of the French revolution, the Holocaust, Communist show trials, segregation/lynchings, Red Scares in the 1950s - all very popular with the man in the street.

    Moral progress remains slow or illusory.

    “It was a great moral improvement when men ceased to kill or eat their fellowmen, and merely made them slaves. A similar development on a larger scale may be seen today, when a nation victorious in war no longer exterminates the enemy, but enslaves it with indemnities.” - Will Durant

    617:

    Appendectomy is still the best treatment for appendicitis for most people.

    Mine was removed when I was 54. And the surgeon said I was maybe 30 minutes from it bursting. He was a bit peeved that they waited for him to show up instead of calling him a few hours earlier.

    But, yes, medicine was not all that "sexy" until into the 60s. We though we knew a lot. Now we know just how little we know now and complicated it really is inside of those "simple" cells.

    I have relatives who keep complaining that the big pharma and such aren't doing more to find a cure for diabetes instead of selling insulin and measuring widgets. The literally can't comprehend how complicated the pancreas is. I put them with the people, some seriously, who want to know why we don't have flying cars yet. They do have somewhat of a point about big pharma but still.

    618:

    It's a fight between a Tyrant (The Mule) and an Oligarchy (The Second Foundation) over who gets to rule the rest of humanity using mind control.

    That's why I liked Donald Kingsbury's Psychohistorical Crisis. He looked at the effect of democratizing access to psychohistorical tools.

    619:

    »But, yes, medicine was not all that "sexy" until into the 60s.«

    Until Penicillin and subsequent antibiotics, medicine was not nowhere near successful enough to stand any chance of becoming sexy.

    620:

    I have relatives who keep complaining that the big pharma and such aren't doing more to find a cure for diabetes instead of selling insulin and measuring widgets.

    They have a point. Shkreli was unusual only in that he was exceptionally blatant about what he was doing.

    Consider that insulin's discoverers sold the patent for $1 so that everyone who needed medication could afford it.

    Biosynthesis ended fears of a shortage of animal pancreas, and has made insulin cheap to produce: human insulin has an estimated production cost of US$2.28–3.37 per 1000 unit vial. Allowing for 30% profit, a year’s supply for someone who takes 40 units per day should cost less than US$71 per year. The equivalent maximum for analogues other than detemir would be US$133.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8915140/

    621:

    »Consider that insulin's discoverers sold the patent for $1 so that everyone who needed medication could afford it.«

    And in all countries except one, they can ?

    622:

    What do people here think of the 'rewilding the Siberian steppe' project, Pleistocene Park? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pleistocene_Park I find it interesting, but don't know enough about rewilding in general, and the Siberian steppe in particular. If this is likely to result in terminal boredom, links to other places for information that are not pure ra-ra gumpf would be gratefully received.

    623:

    "Some articles have said that it will become farmable, but I smelled uninformed optimism"

    Whether its Canadian or Siberian, when tundra melts you get unfarmable marshland.

    624:

    They have a point.

    To a degree. I think I said that. But my point is a large part of my family tree (and many others) think there is a conspiracy of big pharma, big government, whoever, to suppress cures for most all chronic situations. All it should take is a little be more effort and all these diseases and conditions would just go away.

    Now see where MAGA folks come from. The ones not in it for less taxes or more guns. But there is a lot of overlap.

    The problem with conspiracy thinking is it can't be addressed with logic, facts, or reason. To them you're either being duped by the conspiracy or a part of it.

    625:

    I've had that conversation with a few people who insist that BIG PHARMA and BIG MEDICINE have cures for cancer, it's just more profitable to sell therapies.

    Totally aside from the impossibility of keeping such a thing secret (hint: doctors have family members with cancer, sometimes doctors get cancer), has anyone ever met a medical scientist? Finding a cure for cancer would be a fast track to a Nobel and a spot in the pantheon with Salk, Banting & Best and all the rest. No scientific ego could resist that allure to boost the bottom line of their employers.

    626:

    Alec Nevala-Lee's joint biography Astounding: John W. Campbell, Isaac Asimov, Robert A. Heinlein, L. Ron Hubbard, and the Golden Age of Science Fiction makes Asimov out to be someone whose attitudes towards women might not be entirely in accord with current mores. Early on he wrote to outlines given him by Campbell, who in turn was fascinated by "psionics", mind control, and hypnotism, which is where "the Mule" comes from. "Foundation" is a great piece of world-building, no doubt, but the story lines seem like gibberish to me.

    627:

    Oh what fun!
    Quote from Conservative peer Lord Vaizey: “Welcome again, we are back with the insane wing of the Conservative Party.
    They promised us Brexit was going to be an absolute Nirvana... guess what, we need people from the EU to come and work here.
    Guess what, lots of Brits would like to work in the EU and perhaps even retire in the EU

    Guess what - the remnants of the "left" of the Old Conservatives have smelt the coffee, whilst the rest fight like rats in a sack.
    Long may this continue.

    628:

    A poor one, in the case of diabetes. We don't understand why type I is on the increase, but we do know why type II is, and how to reduce it. However, the 'cure' isn't medical - it's social, and massively politically problematic. Note that refers to the increases. We are still as far off from finding a cure for the 'baseline' incidence for type II as type I.

    This applies to essentially all autoimmune diseases, as well as most cancers. We now have the beginnings of a clue on how much we don't know about the immune system, but no more.

    629:
    Sorry, but you can't judge the past by today's standards. As historian Will Durant noted, we consider the Inquisition to be an atrocity and an abomination*.

    A professional historian's response: https://acoup.blog/2023/06/22/fireside-friday-june-23-2023-on-historical-judgement/

    *Side note: did it take until 'today,' however defined, for that opinion to emerge? What were the conversos' opinion of it?

    630:

    A poor one, in the case of diabetes.

    You aren't in a country that sees regular busloads of visitors from America, looking to buy affordable insulin.

    Quinn Nystrom, a leader of T1International's Minnesota chapter, said in May that the price in the U.S. of insulin per vial was $320 US, while in Canada the same medication under a different name was $30.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/insulin-prices-united-states-canada-caravan-1.5195399

    Note that insulin manufacturers still make a profit in Canada.

    631:

    unix wondered: "What do people here think of the 'rewilding the Siberian steppe' project, Pleistocene Park?"

    "Rewilding" is a notion that has reasonably strong support in ecology, at least among ecologists willing to consider replacing one ecosystem with another. With the usual "it depends" caveat: The biggest problem is figuring out what changed between the ecosystem you're trying to re-establish and the current state. For example, did elimination of large grazing animals lead to 10K years of peat accumulation (the case in large parts of northern Canada)? If so, that means there's no longer a mineral soil to support vegetation that requires sand, silt, and clay soil. Will the current ecosystem support large grazing animals? The fact that they haven't already invaded certain sites is a clue that the site may not sustain them. Ecosystems and the critters that inhabit them tend to co-evolve, which makes things even more complicated: everything is connected to everything else, so breaking one thing can break many other things.

    I don't know enough about the study area to know whether the current conditions meet the long-term needs of the re-introduced animals and will be ecologically neutral or positive. My biggest concern is that the described project is a form of geo-engineering, and thus needs to be very carefully studied before committing to it as a solution to a climate or biodiversity problem.

    632:

    It's an interesting project; I wish there was more talk about it on its own merits and not as paragraph 1 of eleventy-dozen "let's create neo-mammoths!" articles.

    633:

    Note, I'm not claiming a vast conspiracy of pharmaceutical companies to suppress cures.

    I am saying that they are more interested in producing ongoing treatments than one-shot cures, and are not at all adverse to profiteering when they can get away with it.

    When the price of insulin doubles in three years (2016 to 2019) I think one is justified in wondering how much tacit collusion is going on among manufacturers — especially when there are really only three manufacturers in the US market.

    634:

    Sadly, the pharmaceutical industry does a fantastic job of making everybody very suspicious of the pharmaceutical industry.

    635:

    Ed Yong recently had an article about the dynamics of the US pharmaceutical market that may gesture towards why that kind of nonsense can happen without requiring active collusion: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2023/06/cancer-drug-market-dysfunction-supply-shortage/674512/

    636:

    Just a quick note. Glaxo Smith Kline, headquartered in London, is one of the major players in the US pharma market. A top 10 player. And they have been spanked at various times for various shady things by US regulars.

    And other top 10 players in the US pharma market.

    Roche - Swiss

    Bayer AG - German

    Merck - German

    Raping and pillaging the US for medicine has a large flavor of Europe.

    637:

    That is irrelevant. I was responding to your comment "They have a point." in response to:

    "I have relatives who keep complaining that the big pharma and such aren't doing more to find a cure for diabetes instead of selling insulin and measuring widgets."

    That's an ignorant complaint, close to a conspiracy theory, and I explained why. Your implication that USA big pharma is inflating the price of insulin may well be true, but has nothing to do with them not putting enough effort into finding a cure.

    638:

    Now, THAT comment I agree with!

    639:

    I think that's a Bad Idea. I'd rather not wait for the biased by upper management trained-AI to produce a release report while someone's still dying of something that Big Pharma wants to charge $200k for something that should cost $20k at most.

    640:

    I would note that the huge Cuban population is splitting, and is more becoming tired of the GOP.

    But then, the original part of that population were supporters of the vile US-set-up dictator Battista, and of the mob that owned Havana since the beginning of Prohibition.

    I've read how the younger generation(s) would like to visit Cuba, at least.

    641:

    "The BoomXers are determined to force a life on most everyone younge" - we are? All of us. Kindly reconsider/rephrase.

    642:

    I believe you would also have had to take a test given by the National Board of Medical Examiners, which offers the graduate of foreighn medical schools exam.

    ObDisclosure: I worked for the Board in the mid-eighties, and helped the original computerization of the Boards.

    643:

    Raping and pillaging the US for medicine has a large flavor of Europe.

    And vice versa; medicine prices in the UK have soared in recent years due to profit-taking by foreign pharma companies. The NHS, as a monopsony buyer, was able to put a brake on it to some extent, but Tory attempts to privatize everything plus a concerted push (via WTO) by the US government promoting a "level playing field" for exports has made things worse.

    It's a global problem because the pharmaceutical industry is global, and the main incumbents are all multinationals.

    644:

    "Rational actors", which I assume are like the spherical economic actors of uniform density, that trade stocks, and....

    645:

    Of course, there being a zillion different types of cancer, there are also more causes, including genetic, and emotional.

    Like me developing cancer that was found just over three years after my late wife dropped dead.

    Finished chemo in June of 2001, thank you.And then, for 10 days, had to stab myself with genengineered red blood cells....

    646:

    Seconding. Kagan is one of the three not right-wing crooks.

    647:

    Hey, I read newspapers.

    Online, of course.... But not everyone wants to be fed video talking heads who manage to say only one or two short paragraphs before going on to the next clickbait.

    648:

    Excuse - Stalin's show trials were just that, and most people knew. A LOT of left-wing groups deserted the CP after that (including the one my father was a member of).

    649:

    All of us

    As a group. Yes. I'm one. I'm dead in the middle. I was the largest graduating high school class ever at my school and in the county. And they didn't expect as many kids for the next 20 years.

    My son in law recently paid me a big complement. He told me I didn't act like most old folks he knows.

    650:

    Asimov. sigh I've seen and heard criticism of him. I've yet to see some that a) recognized the background he grew up in; b) the probability that he was on the spectrum; and c) how he responded to a) and b).

    1. He was born in Russia during the civil wars (you know, when the US and the UK had armies there, trying to overthrow the Bolchevik government).
    2. His parents were Orthodox Jews, and raised him in Brooklyn.
    No chancer there that he would have been raised in a very patriarchal background and society. Nope. (/snark). 3. So, a shy, studious kid. Response when he gets out of that, being funny, and over the top with girls. And people not telling him no... except when they did, he backed off. And yes, he was at a party in our room at Worldcon in Toronto in '73, and I saw him backpedal, fast. (Ok, the infamous Patia, who was a friend of mine, was not your ordinary woman of the time, or even of today).

    So, yes, I get tired of him being beat on, and not knowing the future so he could predict it correctly.... (yeah, right).

    651:

    Forgot to add a note about rewilding: One should also, of course, ask whether the ecosystem one is planning to replace has intrinsic value and has been around long enough that it should be protected for its own sake. The answer isn't always 'no'.

    652:

    I have to wonder if it is ever possible to "go back".

    653:

    »So, yes, I get tired of him being beat on, and not knowing the future so he could predict it correctly.... (yeah, right).«

    Just want to say that I did not bring up Foundation in order to beat up Asimov, who I think have justly deserved his fame.

    I wanted to reread Foundation in order to see how much /I/ have changed, since I read it first time, more than three decades ago.

    And since I have no recollection of noticing the newspapers/spaceship juxtaposition back then, I am certainly not faulting Asimov for not spotting that 40 years earlier.

    654:

    »It's a global problem because the pharmaceutical industry is global, and the main incumbents are all multinationals.«

    The regulatory regime in both EU and USA is also very much a factor.

    It takes decade(s) to develop a potential drug, and there is absolutely no guarantee of success, neither in the clinical trials nor regulatory approval.

    Instead of realizing these unique circumstances and coming up with a suitable incentive structure, politicians on both side of the pond just stuffed synthetic medical chemistry into the patent system, where it is a very square peg for the round holes.

    This gives so many perverse incentives for so many players, that is is not even funny - in particular not when you keep in mind that we are talking about trying to help sick people.

    655:

    Decades to develop... Let's try this again. In the US, the NIH funds 60%? 80% - I forget, but that much of ALL the basic research. Once drugs are identified, then the drug companies develop a commercial version. But the researchers already looked for major flaws.

    Simple answer: nationalize Big Pharm. No multi-million dollar salaries, not deca-million-dollar bonuses, and no dividends.

    656:

    My into to SF was via Analog magazine I found at a grocery while my mom was shopping. I was around 11. The main serialized story was on episode 2 of 3 or 4.

    Utterly racist nonsense was a part of the story. And I could tell at 11. But the entirety of the magazine hooked me. If this showed up on a mass market grocery checkout line today there would be street protests.

    The story was about first contact. And how the aliens were very white and their sales/helpers/whatever very dark. Earth had been populated by a ship wreak or similar in the distant past. Oh, and earth had chosen a bull fight to show off the planet's culture.

    657:
    No chancer there that he would have been raised in a very patriarchal background and society. Nope. (/snark). 3. So, a shy, studious kid. Response when he gets out of that, being funny, and over the top with girls. And people not telling him no... except when they did, he backed off. And yes, he was at a party in our room at Worldcon in Toronto in '73, and I saw him backpedal, fast. (Ok, the infamous Patia, who was a friend of mine, was not your ordinary woman of the time, or even of today).

    How many clean-shaven men is someone from a culture of beard-wearers allowed to punch unprovoked, so long as they stop punching any individual man on request?

    Or, to strip off the needlessly abstruse metaphor: this is arrant nonsense, in service of defending sexual assault. I'll give you one rice-grain of credit for at least skipping over the usual step 1 of Guy With Power defence - claiming it was 'of his time;' we know he was notably worse, because of all the people who noted it.

    658:

    Compare newspapers coexisting with spaceships with the other kinds of futuristic news delivery ideas that people were having around that time... Quite a lot of people have their news being printed on ticker tape. All on one line. A few have it on audio tape. Then people start having it on (presumably) film, which comes on spools that you thread into a machine and it projects text on a screen, sort of like a serial microfiche. Eventually this develops into something that gives the same result from a cartridge you just put in the machine instead of threading spools. (You could say the one prediction SF authors did get right was inventing the compact cassette... or were they just copying Super 8? When did that come out?)

    The common characteristic of all the methods is that they have basically made it sound crudely "futuristic" but practicality has gone out the window. Sometimes the protagonist of the story is a contemporary person who has invented a time machine or suffered a Rip Van Winkle event, and on seeing how people get their news in the future his (of course) reaction is always "hey wow cool". This always seems wrong. I'd like to come across a story where she goes "This is a real pain in the arse. We have our news printed in lines on big rectangular sheets of thin paper, so you can see the whole thing at once and skip back and forth easily etc, and you don't need any machinery, you just look at it. It's much easier than what you've got." She rummages through her stuff and pulls out a copy of the Morning Star. "Here, look." And the future people go "hey wow cool".

    But the related tendency that always seems really nuts to me is from when stories started to include super duper computers. So you have this electronick brane which is handling the government of a whole nation, or coordinating the whole military strategy of half a world against the other half (of course), or some similarly tremendous task, all on its own; but it still produces its output in the form of weird symbols which need an office full of human specialists to turn them into normal writing. It may even be explicitly stated that no matter how capable the machine gets, translating the symbols is inherently impossible and will always require a human brain to do it. If I had my own time machine, one day some of these chaps would be woken up by the sound of a teletype with a loop of tape in it, stood at the foot of their bed printing out "ACTUALLY IT IS VERY EASY" over and over again.

    659:

    sadly, that approach got used a lot in Africa in the 70's and 80's. The consequences were not happy ones, to put it mildly.

    660:

    Fine, so he was an evil man, and his books should be burned, along with all pictures and references to him, right?

    661:

    not knowing the future so he could predict it correctly

    Sure. No slur on his predictive ability intended. I was entralled as a kid with Foundation and the robot stories, even though psionics and telepathy never made any sense, energy-wise. But the SF of that time was riddled with fantasy, and you can go anywhere with fantasy. Once he shook loose of Campbell, and started writing popular science articles, I thought his writing improved, and I read as much of it as I could find. Still a fan.

    And then, "The Gods Themselves" is a great example of how well he could write actual science fiction. The later Foundation novels, though, were a regression.

    662:

    Oh, did I miss any response to my suggestion that he was very probably on the autism spectrum?

    663:

    »Decades to develop... Let's try this again. In the US, the NIH funds 60%? 80% - I forget, but that much of ALL the basic research. Once drugs are identified, then the drug companies develop a commercial version. But the researchers already looked for major flaws.«

    You are not even wrong.

    I suggest you explore Derek Lowe's back-catalogue:

    https://www.science.org/blogs/pipeline

    (Do not miss the "Things I wont work with" category :-)

    664:

    »Compare newspapers coexisting with spaceships with the other kinds of futuristic news delivery ideas that people were having around that time...«

    The crucial missing bit of technology was the Liquid Crystal Display, which only arrives as a research curiosity in the late 1960'ies and finally became a real, but very primitive product in the early 1970'ies.

    Until then, all known computer driven display technologies were patently impractical for something as mundane as rendering todays news, so it is no surprise that authors thought more along the lines of microfilm.

    665:

    Your implication that USA big pharma is inflating the price of insulin may well be true, but has nothing to do with them not putting enough effort into finding a cure.

    If they make more profit for less expense by tweaking insulin treatments compared to a cure, then by current American corporate governance they would be negligent in their obligation to their shareholders if they didn't concentrate on milking existing treatments rather than putting resources that might have gone into dividends into finding a cure that would eliminate the need for the treatments that are so profitable.

    Shareholder value over all!

    666:

    Simple answer: nationalize Big Pharm. No multi-million dollar salaries, not deca-million-dollar bonuses, and no dividends.

    We had that. Connaught Labs. Sold off by Mulroney in the last millennium, although problems started a decade earlier as it was partly privatized and making profits became increasingly emphasized.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connaught_Laboratories

    667:

    The problem that I see with the idea (in general) is that it gets proposed as a "project", where people "do something", and expect to get significant results on a human-perceptible timescale, even though it has taken many thousands of years for it to get like it is at the moment. As if it's the same kind of restoration project as hauling a plastic chair out of the undergrowth it's been in for years and washing all the muck off it, when it's more like restoring to battle condition (including all the ammo) a tank that's been at the bottom of the Channel since WW1.

    Seems to me that it would be a more sensible approach to treat it as a non-project, where people do nothing, except for getting the ones who are living there and doing things at the moment to bugger off; leave it to turn into what it naturally wants to be at its own pace, and don't expect to be able to watch it happen. The trouble is that this invites all the standard toxic pejoratives about "being lazy" and "abandoning" places to "go derelict" and all the other negative words of that kind, plus all the standard dumb crap about some people or other (it's not clear who) losing lots of money (that they didn't actually have) as a consequence. You have to make up a silly word for it like "rewilding" so you can argue it's not the same as "derelict", and talk about being all active and doing lots of things instead of doing nothing, so that the people who don't live in reality will talk dumb crap about imaginary people gaining imaginary money and therefore be persuaded to give you some real money to do all those things. And this is extremely silly.

    (I guess it's also possible that simply enacting a step change by suddenly removing all the human influences could itself have destructive effects, and you would do better to remove them gradually over a thousand years or so. Which makes things even more awkward...)

    668:

    Joshua Yaffa explored the situation in some depth in "The Great Siberian Thaw" (The New Yorker, January 10th, 2022).

    669:

    @ 664: No, the point isn't what the underlying technology of the futuristic method actually was, it's about what it was like to use. Some of the descriptions do sound like something functionally the same as the kind of flat panel displays we have now rather than optical projection, but they don't sound any more usable than the ones which definitely are optical.

    @ 663: Also "The Book of Woe" by Gary Greenberg.

    670:

    Nobody said that, but nobody also excused his bad behaviour either. We can look at the whole person.

    671:

    A BBC radio programme I heard last year (probably From Our Own Correspondent) reported on a visit to Siberia and included a description of a newly planted forest in land at the north of the forested area. The newly planted trees grew well for about ten years and then stopped growing. Presumably because there was still a permafrost layer underground. But they hopes of newly forested land had been dashed.

    672:

    David L @ 636
    Raping and pillaging the US for medicine has a large flavor of Europe.
    IF ONLY ... because "the system" in the US actively encourages such behaviour. yes?

    @ 662
    NO, not ever ...
    You cannot step into the same river twice ...
    Not only is the River different, it's a different "you"

    673:

    »IF ONLY ... because "the system" in the US actively encourages such behaviour. yes?«

    Lawyers and insurance is a major cost if you want to sell medicine in the US.

    Note that I'm not saying they're not also milking the perverse incentives of the US health-care disorganization, but it is not all profit.

    674:

    In the UK a lot of new drugs are initially developed in small startup companies associated with universities. If the products show promise they are bought up by the ig drug companies. But saying that in my ten years as laboratory research coordinator in an NHS trust the biggest trial I was involved in was initially funded by the US army which was looking for a universal blood substitute for easy use in battle conditions. I think the army had dropped the project but it had been taken over by the drug company for civilian use. It showed great promise. In the hospital I worked in the intensive care consultant involved in the study was dubious about the project and would only allow its use in patients wit complete organ failure whose relatives had already been counselled and informed that the patient would certainly die without the treatment. The study registrar told me what happened with the first patient. After infusing the bolus of modified haemoglobin the patient’s blood pressure quickly rose to normal and the patient recovered. The registrar described how the other staff were dumbfounded. Everyone suddenly became enthusiastic. After several years of painstaking trials some side effects resulted in the project being dropped. This was probably a good thing since it was made from treated pooled human blood and mad cow disease was about to rear its head. The main competitor to this product used haemoglobin derived from bovine blood which would have been even worse.

    675:
    Nobody said that, but nobody also excused his bad behaviour either. We can look at the whole person.

    For clarity, I responded because whitroth was excusing Asimov's bad behaviour (and I am therefore judging him by the standards of his time, i.e. now). But yes, exactly; to be extremely gauche and quote myself from less than 100 comments ago "No-one says we have to boil people down to 'good' or 'bad.' We can try to hold the whole person in mind."

    676:
    Seems to me that it would be a more sensible approach to treat it as a non-project, where people do nothing, except for getting the ones who are living there and doing things at the moment to bugger off

    I'm not sure if you've misunderstood the goal of these projects or are proposing something completely different, but the point isn't "stop human intervention in the ecosystem and let it sort itself out," it's "we intervened in this ecosystem in harmful ways; for this ecosystem we are going to intervene in these ways with this goal to reduce that harm." The example would be the projects returning some rivers in the US to salmon habitat; if humans were to halt economic activity and leave it might result in that happening in 70-something years when the dams all fail, but why not just remove them now and jumpstart the progress to your actual goal?

    It's not like human intervention in ecosystems is possible to stop; we've literally altered the gas balance of the atmosphere.

    677:

    Also walking away from human-degraded landscapes and letting them sort themselves out can go badly; the removal of livestock from moorlands in these islands regularly results in bracken near-monocultures as it moves into the disturbed ground faster than anything else.

    678:

    Chicken bones as an Anthropocene marker in the deep future. I've been thinking that it would be glass bottles in seabed sediment, but chickens might have a place.

    https://www.manilatimes.net/2023/07/11/world/chicken-is-proof-how-humans-reshaped-world-experts/1900067

    679:

    Generally "human degraded" means inhabited by things that are very good at dealing what that landscape, whether it's the rats of Manhattan or the gorse of Te Waka O Maui. Rewilding almost always means a period of pest control just to give the original ecological system a chance to re-assert itself. If it exists - oftentimes it turns out that they species you want back depends on a whole chain of things and some of them are extinct, often because the niche doesn't exist any more. There's no mammoths now, and bringing the steppe back isn't going to make fake ones viable without a whole lot of effort. First we reverse global warming, then...

    Of course this become controversial at many stages, not least because some first nations will loudly proclaim themselves part of said "original ecological system" and others will be offended at the suggestion. I vaguely recall this being called the "Joy Adamson Problem" after a lady who wanted to clear the original landowners off her land so her cats could be properly wild. Or something like that. There was a movie and everything.

    But cats are a secondary problem and typify the debate about what exactly "wildlife" consists of. On the one hand you have people saying essentially "think of it as evolution in action" as {new species} produce a new ecology; and on the other hand people (sometimes the same people) pine for the good old days when there were {old species} everywhere. And on the gripping hand some species just can't be removed, probably not even with nuclear weapons, so we just can't go back to whatever we had before.

    680:

    DP replied to this comment from Elderly Cynic on July 10, 2023 17:06 in #623:

    "Some articles have said that it will become farmable, but I smelled uninformed optimism"

    Whether its Canadian or Siberian, when tundra melts you get unfarmable marshland.

    Well, I was born in the 'unfarmable' Great Black Swamp of NW Ohio, as my da was an oil company lawyer. But, well before he arrived in Findlay to work for Marathon, that all got dredged, drained, and is now very productive, very rich farmland. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Black_Swamp

    Maybe with Canada, we can avoid toxic algal blooms by not overfertilizing in the first place.

    681:

    Charlie, you live in"The New Town" ... W.T.F?
    I particularly note the photo-montage showing colours other than white, so it looks like someone or some petty group's personal spite, yes?

    682:

    As historian Will Durant noted, we consider the Inquisition to be an atrocity and an abomination. The Spanish people considered each auto de fe to be a glorious victory for Christ. It was not imposed from above. It was demanded from below.

    My understanding is that most of what we "know" in anglophone popular culture about the Spanish Inquisition is the outcome of British anti-Catholic propaganda of the day, and into the 19th century. People welcomed the Inquisition, because it was their only chance to get anything vaguely resembling a fair hearing for their complaint in the context of the power structures of the day (which the British quite liked). And the complaints in question varied from child abuse to corrupt conduct to wholesale atrocities. The Inquisition itself was a genuine righter-of-wrongs that we'd not disagree with today in many cases, in a context of a highly variable mix of local aristocracies and church authorities happy to abuse their power in all sorts of ways. OTOH the UK of the 18th and early 19th centuries was a police state, by 20th century standards.

    683:

    That was largely because they were not sterilised between uses. Yes, I was referring to Africa, but in the 1950s.

    684:

    Yer, whaa? The first news displays were via the telegraph, and both teletypes (in the generic sense) and the televisions of the 1960s were quite adequate for displaying it. No, pictures and opinionated verbiage are not essential. I don't remember LCDs ever being used for displaying large amounts of text, as CRTs took over directly from teletypes.

    685:

    That is true, and is definitely relevant to some other diseases, but diabetes is a poor example (which is what I originally said). In the past few decades, we have learnt that anything approximating a CURE for diabetes requires either (a) aggressive eugenics or (b) successful blue sky research, followed by successful medical research, followed by successful development.

    We definitely should not allow Big Pharma to do (a) and expecting them to do (b) is a little unreasonable, given the low chances of success in (say) even 50 years.

    686:

    There's also the Lincolnshire (and Cambridgeshire and Norfolk) fens. On the other hand, there's also the British uplands (especially the Scottish Highlands) - clearing the trees has left moorland that is only just suitable for rough grazing, and completely unsuitable for any form of arable use.

    687:

    Just to clarify: I was referring to the 1970s, as the post to which I was responding was, not the modern flat-screen displays which have superseded CRTs. LCDs in the 1970s were very small objects.

    688:

    by current American corporate governance they would be negligent in their obligation to their shareholders if they didn't concentrate on milking existing treatments rather than putting resources that might have gone into dividends into finding a cure

    Ah, but you're assuming the pharmaceutical industry is a monolith.

    In reality it's a ecosystem. The big insulin manufacturing incumbents -- sure, they'd be derelict of duty if they prioritized finding a cure. But you can bet there are plenty of small fringey startups doing stuff like investigating mRNA vaccines for tweaking the immune system who would love to come up with a one-shot that resets the autoimmune process that causes Type I diabetes, or restores insulin sensitivity to peripheral tissues (which decreases in Type II). It'd instantly catapult them to fame and fortune and so what if their shot costs $10,000 (dropping to maybe $100 after it comes out of patent cover) and only needs repeating every few years? It doesn't make them as much money as a $300 vial of insulin every month in perpetuity, but they're not in the insulin business to begin with.

    689:

    Yeah, the council are in the right here.

    She's standing in front of a main door in the New Town, which is a UNESCO World Heritage Site, like the pyramids or the great wall of China or the Colliseum. It's a grade one listed exterior, it's been grade one listed since the early 1970s, and it was almost certainly listed well before she moved in. Her solicitor should have told her when she bought the place.

    You do not vandalize the exterior of a grade one listed building and get off free. Luckily in her case all she's out is the cost of a couple of cans of paint ...

    The folks with other brightly-painted doors ought to be getting nastygrams from the council as well.

    690:

    658: from memory, though I may dig it out tonight, 2001 (the book, not the film) had something called a "newspad" which sounds very like a tablet - there was a home page full of headlines and you tapped on one (or did you enter a number) and that story expanded to fill the entire screen.

    635: that story about drug supplies explains why I've been having so much trouble getting my daughter's prescriptions filled. Last month I had to phone around much of East Anglian before finding one pharmay who admitted to having exactly one pack left - yes, they would hold it for me if I drove there right now (thankfully only 40 minutes away).

    This month our local pharmacist is able to supply it, but not in the right dose. So instead of one 60 mg capsule she's going to be taking two 25 mg capsules and one 10 mg on.

    Who knows what next month will be like.

    691:

    2001 the film also had the newspad, and it was used in an Apple/Samsung court case as evidence of prior art.

    692:

    "In reality it's a ecosystem."

    And in an ecosystem everything is interconnected.

    Fascinating video on how these new weight loss drugs like Ozempic (and a new super weight loss to hit the market by the end of the year) will financially break the American health care system.

    "How One Drug Could Break America’s Health Care System" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrjAhDQKpS0

    They actually work, 40 lbs to 50 lbs weight loss is achievable.

    But they cost $10k to $18k per year without insurance. As a result of this new drug Eli Lilly is now the biggest pharma company in the world - and they have just begun to tap this market.

    And when you stop taking them, you gain the weight back.

    So nobody will ever want to stop taking them, creating a huge and permanent market for big pharma.

    If it is covered by Medicare, big pharma has a forever cash cow orders of magnitude greater than insulin. And it will eat up over 20% of Medicare's total budget - financially breaking America's health care system.

    In the wings, new anti-Alzheimer's for an aging population of retiring Boomers.

    These drugs will eat up 2/3 of Medicare's budget.

    693:

    I was prescribed preservative-free Latanoprost (for glaucoma), but it was unavailable; eventually, I got it changed to the version with preservative, and I was lucky to be able to tolerate that. How much of that is Brexit is unclear, of course ....

    694:

    Clarke was better at imagining the actual future than Asimov and, by 1968, such things as tablets were fairly widely expected (on solid grounds) by the most clued-up people (no, I was not one).

    695:

    Following the honorary doctorates and Nobel prize, they wouldn't have any trouble getting funding for their next adventurous project.

    696:

    DavidL wondered "if it is ever possible to "go back"."

    As the saying goes, you can never step (steppe?) twice in the same river. But if enough of the original ecosystem is still intact, and the environment that gave rise to that ecosystem hasn't changed drastically, you can probably achieve an acceptable approximation of that original state. Or not. In ecology, "it always depends" and you have to consider dozens of interacting factors simultaneously.

    Pigeon noted: "it gets proposed as a "project", where people "do something", and expect to get significant results on a human-perceptible timescale, even though it has taken many thousands of years for it to get like it is at the moment."

    It's definitely possible to see results much faster than you might think. Some of the authors I work with in China see grazing-degraded sites recovering to quite close to original condition with only 10 to 20 years of grazing exclusion. For my own example, I spent 5 or 6 years rooting out an invasive Rhamnus shrub in my backyard, and eventually succeeded. But it took work.

    Ecosystems are simultaneously remarkably robust and remarkably fragile. (Kind of like us, if you think about it. We survive horrendous damage that you'd think should kill us quickly or die from small things that become suddenly serious. Weird how that works.)

    Pigeon: "Seems to me that it would be a more sensible approach to treat it as a non-project, where people do nothing, except for getting the ones who are living there and doing things at the moment to bugger off"

    Or to leave the people in place if they're not the ones doing the harm. For example, Inner Mongolian herders used to have a sophisticated rotational grazing practice based on treating the steppes as a shared resource and that included sharing land by helping each other find pastures when the usual pastures failed (e.g., drought). The Chinese government, thinking that the herders were the problem (and not the large number of immigrant Chinese farmers) created a forced sedentarization program that confined the herders to specific areas and eliminated much of the migration between pastures. This neither solved the degradation problem nor provided a viable alternative to the now-sedentary herders. Haven't seen any research on whether this change was itself responsible for additional degradation, but it wouldn't surprise me. Ecosystems can co-evolve with humans over thousands of years, and not always in bad ways.

    Pigeon: "leave it to turn into what it naturally wants to be at its own pace"

    "What it wants to be" is sometimes a nearly lifeless eutrophicated pond covered in green slime or an acquarium filled with invasive zebra mussels, and precious little else in both ecosystems. Intervention is often required if you want something that looks even remotely like what you started with -- or a biodiverse and functional ecosystem of a different type.

    Pigeon: "I guess it's also possible that simply enacting a step change by suddenly removing all the human influences could itself have destructive effects".

    Definitely. Again, it depends what you're starting with and the role of the humans in creating that state. Different histories have different consequences, and require different solutions... including just walking away and letting Nature work its magic.

    697:

    »Fascinating video on how these new weight loss drugs like Ozempic«

    One of side-effects they spotted during clinical trials was reduced addiction to various other things and activities.

    698:

    There was a recent interview on the PBS Amonpor show of a real medical doc who has worked with these drugs. And also works with one of the companies making them. Her point was these should NOT be used for people 30 pounds overweight. Or by rich folks who want to keep that 5 pounds off to maintain the magazine cover look. They are for people 50 or more pounds overweight. And maybe even set the bar higher. (Yes I know height matters.) Which was an interesting position to state from a doc getting money from one the companies involved.

    Of course there are camels and noses and tents and ...

    699:

    They actually work, 40 lbs to 50 lbs weight loss is achievable. But they cost $10k to $18k per year without insurance.

    That's what they cost in the fabulously dysfunctional and broken-by-design US market.

    Here in the UK, Rybelsus, an oral (tablet) formulation of Semaglutide (the same drug as Wegovy™) is prescribed on the NHS for Type II diabetes that doesn't respond fully to front-line drugs like Metformin and is combined with excess weight.

    It works for bringing down HbA1C (glycosylated haemoglobin, a persistent market of elevated blood sugar levels) and weight loss. Speaking from experience here: I've lost about 15% of my body weight over the past year and dropped six "inches" off my belt size (British clothing retailers still use inches for waist/inside leg measurements on trousers, although they're trying to nudge everybody over onto centimetres). Which means I've had to replace a couple of pairs of perfectly trousers/jeans twice in a year (but hey, less joint pain and blood sugar's way down). My blood sugar has also dropped to the lowest level on file since my local GP surgery began tracking it.

    The actual cost to the NHS is low enough that paying for continuous Semaglutide is cheaper than paying the subsequent costs of uncontrolled diabetes -- the ulcers, amputations, blindness, and organ failures all work out far more expensive in the longer term. And the cost is far less than $10K per month -- more like $10K per year -- because the manufacturers would rather sell a buttload more of the stuff at cost plus a skinny margin than absolutely zip but with a gigantic profit on top of zero.

    Longer term: obviously there's a gold rush to bring new, competing GLP-1 agonists to market, ideally with less side-effects but just basically anything that can grab market share. And the patent protection period on pharmaceuticals is 20 years from first filing, which is well before the drug went on sale (per wiki it was 2012). So in another decade the price will crash as cheap generic versions start pouring out of Indian pharma factories, and the industry will go looking for the next money tree while GLP-1 agonists get cheap.

    700:

    One of side-effects they spotted during clinical trials was reduced addiction to various other things and activities.

    Yep: it doesn't hit your alcohol tolerance but it hits your desire to drink alcohol. In other words, you can still drink yourself under the table in a social setting, but you feel no interest whatsoever in opening a can of beer from the fridge at home on your own.

    701:

    It's definitely possible to see results much faster than you might think.

    Yes. And no.

    The Yellowstone park ecosystem (which is huge) has changed in large ways since the re-introduction of wolves. It has even changed the river bank plant life, fish in the rivers, and all kinds of other things. Much of it due to deer not eating all the tasty green things from ground level to 6 feet up. But along with being huge, Yellowstone is also a very protected area in terms of who can go and do what. At least compared to most of the US. So introducing wolves is doable. But still with some controversy.

    And on the flip side, the US is overrun with wild deer. And coyotes are spreading fast. And most people who study such things tie it back to farmers and hunters nearly wiping out wolves over 100 years ago. Way back when deer were just another animal you noticed at times. Now with hunting seasons and 2.1 million auto deer collisions each year we still have them everywhere. And the "every wild life is sacred" and some of the NIMBY (well really next to my back yard) folks emotionally want to feel it is us mean people building houses on wild areas so these animals are forced to live with us. In reality the deer and coyotes LOVE our suburbs. The food is better than in the wild and for coyotes the small animal hunting is easier. They have more young and thrive. So they proliferate in the burbs. But letting your cats and small dogs run around even in your fenced back yard, especially at night, can be an invitation to a coyote for a meal. And people are upset. Well some are.

    The key point here is the US is NOT going to re-introduce wolves country wide. Just is not going to happen. Well at least not if any voters have a say. So we're in a new ecological environment that will not go back without the fall of civilization. Not saying that will not happen but no one is going to vote for that either.

    It also freaks people out that bears like our greenways as a way to migrate through the city from the mountians to the coasts and back. I live near one of the green ways and we recently had a bear in a back yard 2 years ago about 1000 feet from me. SFReader or Rocketpjs is closer to nature and bears and gets to greet them on the street at times in his Canadian home.

    702:

    And if you want to really see how to screw up an ecosystem, import aquarium and terrarium animals from around the world then dump them in the sewer when you don't want them any more.

    Hello Florida

    Florida doesn't think they will every eradicate all the crazy things. They are mostly resigned to fighting a holding action against 10-30 foot pythons and such.

    703:

    I am glad that it is working for you. It sounds as if, in a decade, it will be a cost-effect way to reduce obesity even in the absence of diabetes.

    704:

    David L
    So, you are sayingthat all thos extra Coyotes arw "Wiley"?

    Florida
    It's the two-legged Alligators that are their problem, surely?

    705:

    it looks like someone or some petty group's personal spite

    Bylaw enforcement is usually complaint-driven, at least here, so it is likely that someone keeps reporting her. (Or bylaw enforcement has a policy of checking for compliance afterwards.)

    The existence of other bylaw violations isn't an excuse, however.

    706:

    Florida doesn't think they will every eradicate all the crazy things

    You mean crazy things like Florida Man?

    707:

    Bylaw enforcement is usually complaint-driven, at least here, so it is likely that someone keeps reporting her.

    Same here. Someone who was pissed at me for noticing the property line was closer to their house than it they had assumed. Suddenly there was a complaint about weeds in my BACK yard. Which was true. But I was working through a 2 week regemin of a few drops of a strong herbicide in the middle of some really strong flowering weeds every few days. Then I dug them up and disposed of them. But in the middle of this I got a visit from the city about an anonymous complaint about my yard being over 8" tall. Anyway, with 2 weeks to deal the weeds were gone and no fine.

    If I had mowed them as the neighbor wanted we'd have the weeds all over my yard and theirs as mowing would have spread their seeds. But what has logic got to do with someone who's pissed.

    Then I looked around the neighborhood and about 1/2 of the yards had grass over 8". But no one was complaining about them.

    Sigh.

    708:

    Yeah. I got bylaw called on my because my back grass was long. (Combination of rain so I couldn't mow, and working 80 hour weeks.)

    I know the chap who reported me. He was/is pretty anal about yardwork. He also blows leaves onto my front yard in the fall, and dumps his yard waste over his fence into another neighbour's compost heap then complains about the heap.

    None of which can really be reported as bylaw violations (although they are) because here the bylaw officer has to see it happening themselves — video apparently isn't good enough.

    709:

    Yeah. I got bylaw called on my because my back grass was long.

    I cut mine high but if it rains too much it can get to way past 8" in 3 or 4 days. Or not if no rain. And we're in thunderstorm country so it rains daily. Just not on you. At times. or not.

    I cut it tall so the clover the bees like comes back quickly. We also seem to attract more chipmunks and rabbits than our neighbors.

    710:

    Gee, so you're saying that what they told us the ten years I worked on campus at the NIH was a lie?

    I suspect your sources.

    711:

    You missed consumerization of drugs that do nothing more than existing drugs.... but the existing patents are running out. Just a few years ago, India refused a drug patent for exactly that reason.

    712:

    Nor was I excusing his bad behavior, but what I've been seeing lately is just that, how he was evil, rather than the whole person.

    713:

    No, I was not excusing bad behavior. If you read what I wrote, I was asking that he be looked at as a whole person, with a history.

    714:

    Btw, I went to look at that link after I posted. I note that he does have a link to a Washington Post article about drug companies... but I didn't see the post you referred to on the first page.

    715:

    Oh, Ozempic? sigh My Eldest stopped after not quite a month. Being permanently nauseas and vomiting is not an acceptable side effect, when she's working.

    716:

    I haven't been vomiting -- got a cast-iron stomach -- but 24x7 low-to-medium grade nausea for twelve months is no fun.

    If it wasn't having the desired results I'd stop taking it and go moan at my GP. And as it is, I'm sure there's going to be a huge market for me-too drugs that don't make about 50% of the users hurl.

    717:

    Yeah, and she's a COTA*, and in school online working on her B.Sc to become an OTA, and is a "traveler", meaning she has to drive from patient to patient. She told me she's going to talk to her doc about an alternative.

    * Certified Occupational Therapy Asst.

    718:

    Best wishes in a tough situation. Thanks!

    719:

    Best wishes in a tough situation.

    Yeah. From family experience, ozempic doesn't make everyone lose weight either, although it's a decent diabetes drug. And I'm glad it's doing weight loss in your case. Also from family experience, replacing clothes is far more pleasant than replacing joints.

    Getting back to the earlier comment about monoclonal antibody drugs (for the non-pharmacists, if the drug name in the fine print ends in -mab, it's a monoclonal antibody)... The general global problem is that it globally costs north of US$1 billion to bring a drug to market. Of this 90% is salaries, and various stages done in different parts of the world (e.g. lab work in San Fran, human trials in India) to keep costs down.

    When a drug is highly effective with a small population of patients, it's going to be hideously expensive, because it's got to pay off that billion dollar debt. That's going to make the doses expensive, whoever pays for them. That seems to be driving the high cost of mab drugs.

    Where the US can be criticized is that advertising drugs is legal here, and that adds ca. 30% to that already huge budget.

    But it's not that simple. While we could cut costs by outlawing the advertising, we'd be putting a bunch of lower/middle level creatives out of business by doing so. SAG and AFTRA (actor's unions in the US) are quite possibly going on strike to renegotiate some standard contracts precisely because it's no longer possible to make a living as a lower/middle level actor working in jobs like commercials for -mab drugs. So you cut the ad-makers out so medicare pays less for your cancer drugs. Good thing or not? This is just another example of how one person's problem is another person's career. Which is true of semaglutide and some of the mabs, oddly enough.

    720:

    Charlie Stross @ 688:

    by current American corporate governance they would be negligent in their obligation to their shareholders if they didn't concentrate on milking existing treatments rather than putting resources that might have gone into dividends into finding a cure

    Ah, but you're assuming the pharmaceutical industry is a monolith.

    And I'd suggest it's not necessarily an "American" monolith either ...

    Charlie Stross @ 689:

    Yeah, the council are in the right here.

    She's standing in front of a main door in the New Town, which is a UNESCO World Heritage Site, like the pyramids or the great wall of China or the Colliseum. It's a grade one listed exterior, it's been grade one listed since the early 1970s, and it was almost certainly listed well before she moved in. Her solicitor should have told her when she bought the place.

    You do not vandalize the exterior of a grade one listed building and get off free. Luckily in her case all she's out is the cost of a couple of cans of paint ...

    The folks with other brightly-painted doors ought to be getting nastygrams from the council as well.

    Just wondering about that ... somewhere I got the impression that bright, primary colors for front doors were something from the Georgian & Victorian eras? Seems like those should BE part of the heritage?

    I can understand how the shades of pink or green she chose wouldn't fit, but the bright reds & blues ... I thought those would fit? According to the article the council has a list of acceptable colors.

    The chief planning officer wrote back telling her to "stick to traditional colours" like dark red, dark grey, sage green, dark blue or black.
    721:

    Clive Feather @ 690:

    658: from memory, though I may dig it out tonight, 2001 (the book, not the film) had something called a "newspad" which sounds very like a tablet - there was a home page full of headlines and you tapped on one (or did you enter a number) and that story expanded to fill the entire screen.

    IIRC, there's nothing like that in Clarke's original short story "The Sentinal" which inspired Kubrick's film.

    However, the BOOK "2001: A Space Odyssey" was written concurrently with making the film - Clarke worked closely with Kubrick on the novelization of the film, so the "newspad" in the book should describe the thing shown in the movie ...

    722:

    bright reds & blues ... I thought those would fit?

    I live in the New Town and remember, while the Georgians and Victorians were by and large into bright colours, remember this is dour, presbyterian Scotland we're talking about. My front door is very dark blue (non-gloss). Most of the neighbouring doors are grey, black, or dark green or blue. I can think of a red one off-hand, but it's a dull ochre rather than fire-engine red.

    The photos in the BBC article look like extreme outliers, frankly. They're modern colours -- much too bright and saturated.

    723:

    it was almost certainly listed well before she moved in. Her solicitor should have told her when she bought the place.

    The BBC article says she's 48 and that she grew up in the house then inherited it from her parents, so probably born around the same time it was listed?

    724:

    David L @ 702:

    And if you want to really see how to screw up an ecosystem, import aquarium and terrarium animals from around the world then dump them in the sewer when you don't want them any more.

    Hello Florida

    Florida doesn't think they will every eradicate all the crazy things. They are mostly resigned to fighting a holding action against 10-30 foot pythons and such.

    New Zealand (Aotearoa) seems to think they can eradicate rats, which I think is a far more difficult task than pythons.

    Florida could eliminate the snakes if they really wanted to. But it would be a costly effort and the anti-tax assholes won't want to pay for it.

    But it IS doable.

    726:

    The flat I live in was listed in, I think, 1972-ish. It was probably listed before she was born; the entire district is listed.

    727:

    And part of that has to do with hospitals "outsourcing" doctors and other professionals. "Oh, he's in your insurance, but your anaesthesiologist wasn't, and....

    728:

    Goodbye, Ozempic, a recent Atlantic article about all the various alternatives that mean Ozempic is virtually done. Here's the original link instead of the archive, if anyone fancies their chances of getting past the paywall. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2023/06/ozempic-pills-obesity-drugs-semaglutide/674541/

    729:

    That is seriously grim. Even with chemotherapy, the nausea is rarely present for more than half the cycle.

    730:

    Which is where we get into what's called "precision medicine". Except in tests, I don't think they're doing DNA analysis to pick the best drug, but we're going in that direction.

    731:

    Unrelated: we're about to go to the NASFiC in Winnipeg late next week. I can't find my DIFRware wallet, and Ellen needs one. DIFRware seems to be gone (thanks so much, Big River). Any recommendations?

    732:

    Which is where we get into what's called "precision medicine". Except in tests, I don't think they're doing DNA analysis to pick the best drug, but we're going in that direction

    Sure they are. See https://www.cancer.org/cancer/types/breast-cancer/treatment/targeted-therapy-for-breast-cancer.html

    The monoclonal anatibody drugs I just posted about require genotyping of tumors for use. They're being advertised for on TV here, every night. See https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/another-cancer-drug-turns-to-tv-advertising-new-novartis-mbc-treatment-piqray-campaign

    733:

    @ Rocketpjs 599, @ Greg Tingey 602: re: David Brin- I was a participant and contributor to Contrary Brin (https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/) until this past weekend. While I find Dr. Brin to be an articulate and thoughtful writer, I found the blog becoming repetitive and did not feel comfortable with him stating his economic, political, and sociological opinions as facts (as the ONLY answer to certain problems in some cases) when he is neither economist, political scientist, nor sociologist. He did not provide supporting evidence (from those that were) for those opinions but instead frequently referred to historical (non-scientific) figures to support his statements. His opinions may in fact be correct, but IMHO he (and others) should either state that they are opinions or provide evidence (or at least professional expertise) in presenting them.

    @ Reynolds 614; re: Life extension- In the Robot books, Asimov discussed how the settlers lived 200-300 Y years, but as you say the settlers and their descendants “decided’ to avoid that because of societal collapse. Can you imagine someone/ some people who would voluntarily be willing to not extend their vigorous lives if the means existed to do so?

    @ Anonemouse 676, et al. re: “Re-wilding”- While it may be difficult to accomplish, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to me to attempt to restore a degraded (human/natural) ecology to its prior biodiversity and bioabundance. I’m playing around with the idea that the 22nd Century PTB plan toward a multi-century effort to create a “Neo-Eemian World” aided by the efforts of a some 10E8 people who are working on this at any given time during the period.

    @ Clive Feather 690/Vulch/691 re: 2001: ASO’s Newspad- https://www.therpf.com/forums/threads/2001-space-odyssey-ibm-newspad-prop.233051/ This looks like a tablet that Sony would have designed.

    @ Everyone: re: Foundation “The Encyclopediasts”- It seems implausible to me that a 12,000 y.o. Galactic Empire with 25,000,000 inhabited worlds wouldn't ALREADY have a “Galactopedia” or at least an “Encyclopedia Galactica”.

    @ Various: re: Invasive Species- https://www.cantbeatemeatem.us/ Also, can you imagine what some trucks loaded with buckets of easily caught live Asian Carp could do to the Great Lakes’ fishing industry as an act of eco-terrorism?

    734:

    Also, can you imagine what some trucks loaded with buckets of easily caught live Asian Carp could do to the Great Lakes’ fishing industry as an act of eco-terrorism?

    That war is already being fought.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Sanitary_and_Ship_Canal#Asian_carp_and_the_Canal

    735:

    Perhaps of interest for worldbuilding.

    https://pkazajobs.datacenterfrontier.com/careers/65140-DataCenterFrontierJobs/jobs/16239995-Data-Center-Facility-Engineer--TSSCI/

    Data Center Facility Engineer - TS/SCI San Antonio, TX

    Our client is an Engineering Design and Commissioning Company that has a national footprint and specializes in MEP critical facilities design. They provide design, commissioning, consulting and management expertise in the Critical Facilities Space. They have a mindset to provide reliability, energy efficiency, sustainable design and LEED expertise when providing these consulting services for Enterprise, Colocation and Hyperscale Companies. This career-growth minded opportunity offers exciting projects with leading-edge technology and innovation as well as competitive salaries and benefits.

    Data Center Facility Engineer – San Antonio, TX Government Projects – Secret / Top Secret / TS/SCI / Full Scope Poly

    Looking at all shifts / all levels

    We are looking for a Data Center Engineer to support a critical data center. The Engineer will be responsible for monitoring compliance with contractual commitments, directing technical and administrative tasks related to the operation of the critical facility infrastructure and assuring compliance with company’s policies and procedures.

    Responsibilities

    Operate and perform both routine and emergency service on a variety of state of the art critical systems, including but not limited to medium voltage switchgear, diesel generators, paralleling switchboards, UPS, PDU, mechanical heat rejection systems, computer room air handlers, fire detection/suppression and building monitoring systems.

    Participates in the preparation of analyses and reports on the data center infrastructure, develops project plans and conducts briefings and presentations.

    Ensures that operational, maintenance and emergency methods of procedure (MOP’s and SOP’s) are developed and strictly adhered to.

    Supervise the on-site management of sub-contractors and vendors, ensuring that preventative maintenance and emergency repairs are performed as specified and on schedule.

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    3-8+ years of relevant experience with power, electrical and mechanical equipment including generators, critical and essential PDU’s, UPS, switchgear, chillers, air handling units, computer grade cooling systems, DC Power Systems, and building monitoring/control systems

    Experience with Liebert DX units a HUGE plus Secret / Top Secret / TS/SCI Clearance a HUGE plus Universal CFC License or any License a HUGE plus Previous experience in the Military / Military Veterans a huge plus!

    Experience with Electrical / Mechanical: Navy nukes - EMN, ETN, MMNs, SeaBees, Army - Power Generation, Air Force – Power Production, Generator Techs, Maritime, Coast Guard, Army National Guard, etc.
    736:

    The funny thing is that in Asia carp are considered extremely good eating. (Snark) If Midwesterners could be more adventurous in their food choices, they could have truly massive amounts of good fish for really cheap.(/snark) Less snarky, all the expensive ACoE techno-fixes to keep the carp out of the Great Lakes are there in part because people aren't eating these...large food fish.

    737:

    people aren't eating these...large food fish

    they're just not hungry enough yet

    738:

    A lot of invasives were deliberately introduced so they could be eaten. Deer and trout in Aotearoa for example.

    That also makes them hard to eradicate because there's a community of people who wwant them there. And will both object to their removal and reintroduce them if they are removed.

    739:

    Some genius introduced deer to Haida Gwaii a century ago and they are rampant now. Of course, they are eating all the saplings and threatening the forests. So somebody had the bright idea to introduce squirrels (nature's treeplanters). Now the squirrels are eating the eggs of the seabirds...

    Hunting deer is 100% permitted and encouraged 100% of the year on Haida Gwaii, and yet they persist - largely because it is a fairly thinly inhabited wilderness. My understanding is that more recent efforts are focusing on clearing them off various smaller islands and then, perhaps, slowly clearing them from particular areas.

    740:

    @ David L, @Heteromeles, @Adrian, @Moz. Thanks, I can't seem to find much out what's happening re: Asian carp in the Great lakes for about the last 4 years. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_carp_in_North_America#:~:text=The%20Asian%20carp%20have%20been,abundant%20throughout%20the%20Great%20Lakes), although (From 2010 to January 2019, Illinois contract fishermen have harvested 7.5 million pounds of carp from the Illinois River. Most of the haul is used to make bait, fertilizer, and pet food.) Re: eating carp: Gefilte fish- (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gefilte_fish). I've not had home-made, which I've heard is better than the bland store bought. Any thoughts, fellow MOTTs? Carp recipes- (https://www.google.com/search?q=carp+receipes&oq=carp+receipes&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIJCAEQABgNGIAEMgkIAhAAGA0YgAQyCQgDEAAYDRiABDIJCAQQABgNGIAEMgkIBRAAGA0YgAQyCQgGEAAYDRiABDIJCAcQABgNGIAEMggICBAAGA0YHjIICAkQABgNGB7SAQ04NzE0MDUwOGowajE1qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8) "Many American anglers think of the common carp a rough fish, not fit for human consumption. In many parts of the world, however, the carp is held in high esteem as a food fish. If the catch is properly cared for, it can make a delicious addition to the menu." (https://tpwd.texas.gov/fishboat/fish/didyouknow/inland/carp_recipes.phtml#:~:text=Many%20American%20anglers%20think%20of,delicious%20addition%20to%20the%20menu.)

    @ Moz: I would have thought that Australians might eat lots of rabbit, but I guess if something is thought of as a pest, people won't want to eat it however tasty it is.

    @ Whoever: re: Our friend, the cuddly Burmese Python- (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burmese_pythons_in_Florida, https://floridapythonleather.com/) I would think that for such a high price for the leather goods, there would be more success in catching them. Maybe the bonus is too low- "The 2013 Python Challenge, a month-long event with cash incentives for python captures sponsored by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, resulted in only 68 total python captures by 1,600 registered participants.[44] Another hunt was nonetheless held in 2016, resulting in 106 pythons captured by over 1,000 participants." Time for a new Discovery Channel/TLC show: "Python Hunters!"...

    741:

    "If the catch is properly cared for, it can make a delicious addition to the menu."

    i know monks used to maintain stewponds to mitigate the bottom feeder aftertaste

    apparently they have it for christmas dinner in parts of eastern europe

    742:

    Quite a few places in this country actually named ... "Fishponds" - for obvious reasons - where fish were kept or transferred, prior to them being scooped out, using nets, for eating.
    The best-known is, I think, in Bristol

    743:

    Bit of a rough area, but not quite the worst in Bristol.

    Which reminds me, the reason the worst areas in a lot of northern cities have words like "moss" in the name is that they started out as cheap housing built on reclaimed swamp.

    744:

    Nope! My cancer was identified as a mesothelioma only by whole-genome testing, and that changed the treatment. Yes, that's in Addenbrookes (Cambridge), which is one of the leading hospitals.

    What is only in testing is creating specific drugs for an individual patient's cancer.

    745: 721 #733

    I didn't get the chance to check last night. I didn't remember the newspad from the film, but the one that's shown in the IBM link is consistent with my memory of the book - you typed in a number to make it change to a new page (memories of Ceefax in the UK).

    However, that scene is clearly set on Discovery One on its way to Jupiter, while my memory of the book scene is that it's Heywood Floyd reading the news while waiting on the space station for his flight to Clavius Base. In the film that was replaced by him talking to his daughter over a video link.

    However, the BOOK "2001: A Space Odyssey" was written concurrently with making the film - Clarke worked closely with Kubrick on the novelization of the film

    Clarke commented somewhere (perhaps "The Making of 2001"?) that the book should really have said "By Arthur C.Clarke and Stanley Kubrick, based on the film by Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C.Clarke" while the film should have said "By Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C.Clarke, based on the book by Arthur C.Clarke and Stanley Kubrick".

    746:

    Re "Clarke commented somewhere (perhaps "The Making of 2001"?)"

    I believe the comment was included in "The Lost Worlds of 2001" written by Clarke & published in 1972. Quite possibly elsewhere as well.

    747:
    deer to Haida Gwaii

    To eliminate the deer, you'd probably have to have a couple of skirmish lines of people walking from one end of the islands to the other, beating the bushes as they went. They might not have to be as close to each other as 18th century soldiers in battle, but since Graham Island is more than 30 km wide, that would be a lot of people, no matter how you sliced it.

    That being said, I can see no way that such an approach could possibly go wrong. /s

    748:

    I can see no way that such an approach could possibly go wrong.

    If only from a PR point of view. If proposed in the US it would be blocked / fought over in court for years. And various relocation proposals debated and lobbied for and likely eventually required as a part of the culling.

    750:

    I do wonder if Merchant Princes and Empire Games actually lean the other way. I can't think off hand of a conversations in those where two men talk about a topic that isn't a woman. Mostly when it is just men talking, they're discussing Miriam. (And this isn't some weird accusation of reverse-sexism, I don't think there'd be anything wrong with that. Just an interesting observation)

    751:

    In response to my "It's definitely possible to see results much faster than you might think."

    David L wrote: "Yes. And no."

    To which I note my repeated caveat that every good description in ecology begins with "it depends". I gave one example, you gave another one with different context.

    That being said, your Yellowstone example is an excellent addition to this thread. Ecosystems are generally heavily controlled by humans, and humans have opinions that may over-rule what we ecologists might want to accomplish.

    752:

    That being said, your Yellowstone example is an excellent addition to this thread.

    there's chernobyl as well, assuming the russians didn't wipe everything out on general principles during their temporary occupation last year, there is or was all kinds of wildlife there

    753:

    While I find Dr. Brin to be an articulate and thoughtful writer, I found the blog becoming repetitive and did not feel comfortable with him stating his economic, political, and sociological opinions as facts (as the ONLY answer to certain problems in some cases)

    I know just the topics you're talking about! :-/

    Brin is much smarter than I am*, with better training (PhD physics for starters), and with a wilder imagination (no way I could have conceived the uplift universe). And yet I get the impression that he's made up his mind on a number of topics and is resistant to re-examining them.

    Like his insistence that transparency is the solution to a number of societal problems. I agree that it is necessary, but I think recent events in the Greatest Country In The World Ever have demonstrated that transparency alone is not sufficient.

    I wish he'd put less effort into political blogging and more into writing great science fiction.


    *As are many of the commenters here.

    754:

    Go for a modern solution. Some fixed towers and some drones, equipped with an AI and repeating rifle - I am sure that the Pentagon has designs that would need only a little modification, and they would LOVE to test in real life. If not, try the Kremlin. They could signal a kill, so people could go in and pick up the carcase, for sale. Completely automated, and computers don't make mistakes, right?

    755:

    I think recent events in the Greatest Country In The World Ever have demonstrated that transparency alone is not sufficient.

    Transparency is not as important as the absence of distortion.

    I mean, you can have transparency and excessive exposure to the views of Andrew Tate, Posie Parker, Josef Goebbels, etc ...

    756:

    The British Isles are an interesting extreme outlier. Almost all of our ecologies are man-made - and humans are perhaps the only 'native' land mammal, anyway. Our big problem is the lack of any large predators to control the deer; mainly roe and muntjac in the low lands and red deer (and sika) in the uplands. If we simply stopped interfering:

    The uplands would degrade even more than they do at presen, and the lowlands would revert to woodland and some marsh in a few decades. But, with the deer, it would be very impoverished woodland, with very very little growing underneath it, and only a few tree species.

    If we introduced predators (wolves and lynx) or eliminated the deer, the uplands might turn into (ecologically better) moorland or, very, very slowly into birch and conifer woodland; I don't know. The lowlands would turn into ecologically rich woodland (MUCH richer than 8K years ago) and some marsh in a few decades; the reason is that almost all of our land and freshwater species are recent invaders.

    757:

    I used to favour complete transparency for the UK, but that was when we had a less dysfunctional political system, a MUCH less dysfunctional media, and before the population had been dumbed down. I believe that it would have worked, then. But, today? I can't see that it would even help.

    758:
  • Please stop using "dumb" as a pejorative, it's ableist language. (Would you use "blind" as a synonym for "stupid"?) While I'm at it: "lame" is also an inappropriate pejorative.

  • In principle you're right, but the enshittification of our media is part of an emergent long-term pattern of side-effects of capitalism -- it stems in part from the reframing of news as popular entertainment rather than communication intended to inform, which in turn is a side-effect of advertising sales as a way of funding the media. I see no way to fix this without regulating advertising (at a minimum!) and press regulation in the large. And even then, it'd be a generational project and how the hell do you deal with social media entrepreneurs -- "influencers" who come out of nowhere and generate followings on whatever platform is available in order to push their wares?

  • I truly never expected us to get to the point where Gillian McKeith pushing a reality TV show to promote her harmful quack diet nonsense would look relatively harmless ... (update: I see she's gone full anti-vaxxer/COVID denialist/conspiracy theorist).

    759:

    OK, so what term do you use to replace the expression "to dumb down"? I can't think of one that is even close.

    760:

    I see more of a promotion of ignorance, possibly so leaders aren't presented with challenging conversations. The unfortunate side effect is a more receptive audience for "Dispensers of bovine by-product".

    762:

    "Enshittify" works well, don't you think? As does "stupefy". Or "over-simplify", "bamboozle", or "mislead". Come on, this isn't rocket science!

    763:

    No, not even remotely. When referring to people, "dumbing down" means roughly what Tim H said, though with unthinkingness as well as ignorance - which is exactly the combination that has been promoted in at least English schools and by the media for 40 years. I.e. turning the population into people who neither think for themselves nor have the knowledge to do so effectively. And THAT is what I was referring to.

    I have no idea what "enshittify" would mean, and I cannot see that it is relevant. You may feel that the British public have been turned into shits, but I don't.

    "Stupefy" means to put people into a stupor. Very different.

    "Over-simplify" makes no sense when applied to people.

    "Bambooze" and "mislead" mean to fool people, which again is entirely different.

    Come off it! You know the English language better than that. I agree that using "dumb" to mean "stupid" is perjorative, but it has been widely used in that sense and rekated ones for 700 years (*). If you object to its use on your blog, fine, it's your blog and your rules, but please don't stop people describing ab problematic situation; that's censorship.

    (*) Dumb animals, dumb terminal, etc.

    764:

    Thanks, Adrian. Yes- there's a lot of overlap in traditional Eastern European Jewish and Gentile cuisines (except for pork dishes).

    765:

    »In principle you're right, but the enshittification of our media is part of an emergent long-term pattern of side-effects of capitalism«

    Not really.

    What transformed media was bandwidth.

    The role of the editor of any media was to make sure that todays newsworthy events would fit exactly inside the four corners of the paper, and most people today have no idea how low bandwidth a daily newspaper represents.

    And media used to be a good and sound business, you had to be truly terrible at the job, to make a publication go bankrupt.

    Because it was such a sound business, "the fourth estate" was an ambient condition for the development of democracy, and therefore almost all constitutions leave it unmentioned, tacitly assuming it will always be there, and capable of exposing political crimes.

    Infinite bandwidth destroyed the traditional media business model, and here it is worth remembering that seen from a newspaper press, a 9600 modem was "infinite bandwidth", in the sense that it can deliver text faster than it can be read.

    And /then/ mammonists moved in, bought struggling media operations cheaply, and turned them into propaganda outlets.

    USA's and UK's democracies are particularly f**ked because of this.

    766:

    "Come on, this isn't rocket science!" No - it's much harder to solve.

    Nasty people will seize on any word/phrase that is being used to describe people they dislike and turn it into a slur. We only need to recall a few examples.

    The obvious giant in the pond is the lable for people with darker skin. Negro was a perfectly ordinary word once upon a time - just black in several non-English languages. Then it became coded as a slur and put-down. Likewise 'coloured', then 'black', and now even 'African American' is getting used that way. No word that can be found and self-adopted as a polite lable will last for long before being taken over by bigots.

    Aother example I've seen is 'spastic'. When I was young I had a friend that was spastic and it was just the medical name for what fucked up his health. Now it's a deeply offensive word.

    A still more recent case is 'conservative'. Once upon a time it was not much more than a political lable but it has become a word meaning vile, reprehensible, corrupt, mean-spirited, wilfully stupid, and generally appalling. Actually, that change is one I kind of approve of. See also 'liberal' which has been turned into a slur by 'conservatives'.

    Rocket surgery is complex, difficult, and changes over time - but doesn't generally have about half the population trying to make it miserable.

    767:

    but it has been widely used in that sense and rekated ones for 700 years

    So has "jew" but that's no excuse for persisting with it.

    My deeper point is that I want these comments to be more friendly to non-insiders, and pejorative terms of abuse (which may apply to some readers) don't help. (Neither do in-jokey nicknames.)

    768:

    Well... I'm afraid I'm going to disagree. I would suspect that if you asked people in the street to define the word "dumb", not one in ten would think of someone who couldn't speak.

    769:

    When referring to people, "dumbing down" means roughly what Tim H said, though with unthinkingness as well as ignorance - which is exactly the combination that has been promoted in at least English schools and by the media for 40 years. I.e. turning the population into people who neither think for themselves nor have the knowledge to do so effectively. And THAT is what I was referring to.

    As someone who got his teen STEM education from both retiring and recent college graduates around 1970 I'm going to posit something different. The retiring school physics teacher was big on things like the inclined plane and was known for a class to get an easy A or B. New guy, told us day one that things were going to be different. Step one: buy a slid rule. In 3 weeks we'll have a few days of training. If you can't use one you will not pass. Same guy took over from same guy for Chemistry. My high school physics and chemistry classes lost 2/3s of the students that first week. But those of us left LEARNED.

    From a US perspective.

    The somewhat STEM and other curious folks got a much deeper education starting in the 50s and into current times. While the rest of the population got the same level as before. Math = add, subtract, multiple, divide, and fractions. And the later two maybe not all that well. Science for most stopped at what most of us on this blog would cover if teaching from nothing in a week or two.

    And so on. Watching the people around me (growing up in a smaller community made it easier to watch a wide swath of people) I see the people who did nothing but follow spots and movie stars are about as educated now as then. But for those of us (yes us!) who dug deeper, instead of a small sliver of the population, there's a much larger percentage of us floating around. The ther others are pissed that we don't value their opinions. Really really pissed. And social media just amplified the pissedness. In the US we got MAGA. My father was one of the STEM appreciators. His degree after WWII was in bookkeeping. He spend most of his work life operating then managing a UF6 cascade production line. My mother was totally in the other camp. (Growing up in my family was downright weird at times.)

    A few comment back Gillian McKeith was mentioned. So I looked her up in Wikipedia. OGM. Gwyneth Paltrow and Goop.

    AND from PHK

    And /then/ mammonists moved in, bought struggling media operations cheaply, and turned them into propaganda outlets.

    Not sure if you were in the US when craigslist hit in the US. But the newspapers here didn't know how to deal with their classified ad business vanishing in a year or so. Or less. $25 in 2000 for a 3 line add to sell something to your neighbors. We all felt raped by the pricing and the move to craigslist was so fast you could feel the vacuum in the newspaper offices. Then Google and the online ad business took away 70% to 90% of what was left of their income as ads moved online.

    Struggling is being polite. They were in freewill to liquidation.

    770:

    So religion, the opium of the masses, is being replaced by the fentanyl of social media? And instead of social media democratizing the internet, it has empowered dictatorial drug lords who make Bill Gates look good?

    771:

    Actually, in the UK at least, it happened the other way round. Thatcher gave Murdoch the go-ahead to establish a dominance, but that was specifically for print newspapers only, and happened before most people in the UK had much in the way of Internet access (early 1980s). It went downhill from there. Yes, I agree that the Internet revolution spelled the end of the dominance of newsprint, but that was later.

    772:

    Rocket surgery is complex, difficult, and changes over time

    Rocket surgery sounds way cooler and more difficult than mere rocket science.

    Good turn of phrase. I'm stealing it.

    773:

    So religion, the opium of the masses, is being replaced by the fentanyl of social media?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syncretism

    Hello dates for Easter and Christmas. And all those Christmas trees in churches in the US.

    And

    774:

    In the case of Haida Gwaii it is a large territory that is primarily held sovereign by the Haida. I cannot imagine them being willing or interested in automated killtowers being set up on their land by anyone.

    They are the primary drivers of various deer culls and efforts to remove the deer. The geography of the islands mean that a 'slow walk' to kill all the deer wouldn't work (too many mountains, gullies and impenetrable forests).

    I suspect the new ecology is whatever includes deer. It may take awhile to settle. No idea if anyone has considered introducing predators, though that could be a further catastrophe. I know there are bears on the islands because I've seen a couple, but they aren't really 'large prey' hunters.

    775:

    before most people in the UK had much in the way of Internet access (early 1980s)

    That was a decade before consumer internet was even available!

    It was years before modems were a thing most people knew existed that you could buy. Hell, you couldn't even legally plug one into the phone line before 1984.

    (Time telescopes history, in our memories.)

    I was writing a monthly column in Computer Shopper when the internet arrived with a bang and the mag's page count crashed by 50% over a 18 month period. That's pages of paid advertising at roughly £2000/page, from 700+ pages in an issue down to 350-odd. They had roughly 130,000 subscribers (which were essential to the ABC circulation figures) paying £3 a month. So the subscribers paid about £400K/month and the advertisers (600-odd pages at £2000/page) paid £1.2M/month. Which crashed revenue from £1.6M/month to £0.9M/month while the production overheads remained almost the same (got to pay the print bills, the editorial staff, and the writers who turn in just as much content to draw the subscribers!).

    (NB: the cost of printing a 350-page magazine is not much less than that of printing a 700-page issue.)

    776:

    I used to love the US Computer Shopper.

    I think it was impacted by the Internet because it relied on ads, which due to the publishing lead times were always months out of date. Once you could access the same information on the Web it became obvious that for something that had volatile prices (like the entire PC industry) print ads were no longer an option.

    777:

    EC @ 757
    Talking of "Dumbing down" { Stupefying? } - err: SEE BELOW *
    The latest tory-fascist attack-dog ploy against the BBC, by their stalking-horse, the Scum ( "the Sun" ) looks as though it might be backfiring, spectacularly - I do hope so.
    MetPlod have, apparently concluded "no criminality, no action"
    Maybe people will ignore the dead cat of Mr Edward's problems & pay attention to the thing they were trying to distract from? ...
    The failure of the lying crooked slime BoZo to return his "old" phone to the Parliamentary investigation underway, which is stalled without it? Um.

    David L @ 769
    The somewhat STEM and other curious folks got a much deeper education starting in the 50s and into current times.
    YES - Me: Maths /Physics / Engineering to MSc level ... but I'm very widely read in both history & geography, too - never mind my more recent extensions into botany & horticulture ...

    "BELOW"
    Moronification?
    Enmoronising?

    There's not much doubt that the entire Murdoch "press" is actively engaged in enmoronising as large a segment of the population as they can to pursue their fascist-lite agenda.

    778:

    Different magazine.

    The UK edition was started by a magazine mogul from the UK -- Felix Dennis -- who saw CS on a newsstand in the mid-eighties. He thought "that's a good idea" and brought it home, whereupon he cloned the graphic design and advertising format but hired an old skool heavyweight home computing mag editor (Jeremy Spencer) to acquire and run editorial content -- 20% by page count was mandatory in the UK in order to take advantage of lower bulk mail rates for books and periodicals. So Jeremy filled it up with columns about popular computing platforms (BBC Micro, Sinclair Spectrum, Macintosh, IBM PC) as well as running a bunch of in-depth articles. I mean, would you have read a multi-issue introduction to 6502 assembly language programming in the US version of the magazine?

    (I got the Linux column, having first reviewed an early Slackware distro in CS in 1994, in 1998, and wrote it until 2004. At which point the Google apocalypse gutted the advertising and head office changed the editor. I decided the writing was on the wall, I had novels to produce, and that was that for me.)

    779:

    I mean, would you have read a multi-issue introduction to 6502 assembly language programming in the US version of the magazine?

    I had subscriptions to Byte, Kilobaud, and Circuit Cellar. I also had a preliminary manual of the 6809 data book plus books for the 2650 from Signetics and the 1802 from RCA (not to mention the Osborne books), just because I was curious, I wasn't doing anything with them. So, yes, I would have enjoyed that series of articles. Even my co-workers call me a bit-head :)

    780:

    "The British Isles are an interesting extreme outlier. Almost all of our ecologies are man-made - and humans are perhaps the only 'native' land mammal, anyway."
    Or not. Hom Sap Sap migrated to the "British Isles" via Doggerland dryish shod (apart from rivers) circa 12_000 years ago.

    781:

    Talk about forgetting.... The company my late wife and I both worked for in the early nineties paid for two subscriptions, so I had IEEE Computer... and Dr. Dobb's (when it was "running light without overbyte"). When we relocated to Chicago, my new co would pay for only one... so, esp. after Computer's Jan, '94 cover was literally presenting OOP as the silver bullet for the "programming backlog", I kept Dr. Dobb's.

    782:

    Bo, my specific question was, would you have expected that assembly language tutorial in Computer Shopper? (As opposed to Byte, Doctor Dobbs, Circuit Cellar, etc.)

    783:

    It's worth noting that possibly some of the reason for the paucity of pre-10,000BCE archaeological traces on GB/IE is due to them being the chilly and relatively infertile uplands; the most habitable land was down in the bottomlands which got inundated at the end of the last ice age.

    There is a subfield of archaeology that looks for sites underwater in the North Sea; apparently there are a lot down there, but the coastal areas have been dredged/trawled extensively and fabric and wood have long since rotted away.

    784:

    Bo, my specific question was, would you have expected that assembly language tutorial in Computer Shopper? (As opposed to Byte, Doctor Dobbs, Circuit Cellar, etc.)

    (Forgot about Dr. Dobbs, another favorite :) ).

    I seem to remember the that US Computer Shopper had the occasional very technical article. Would I have expected it to be there, probably not. But it wouldn't have really surprised me, either (more of: look at this! Cool!)

    785:

    So dumbing down is out, but slackwitting is okay for now?

    786:

    Slackwitting is obviously the reason management insists on conferencing over Slack ...

    787:

    And there are much more challenging words out there being fought over. Germaine Greer back when she was a feminist was notorious for dropping the C word. Which IIRC started as a polite euphemism. The queer community have reclaimed 'gay' as well as a bunch of others to the point where 'gay' is now a polite version... and transgressive groups often use "banned" words as a way to mark themselves.

    Applies to everything from toilet "bathroom" in the USA (where no-one knows what a vulva is), through to the N word. Interestingly the F word doesn't have the same problem - perhaps even the Puritans are loosening the F up?

    788:

    Pass or Fail: It's looking like the U.S. is heading for a fail in our insurance industry.

    State Farm and Allstate have bailed out of California (fires, floods, mudslides, earthquakes, etc.), and now Farmers Insurance is abandoning Florida (hurricanes, floods, rising sea levels, sink holes, etc.). For many years I have anticipated property in southern Florida becoming uninsurable, so I fully expect other private insurers to leave the state in the next few years.

    Will the U.S. have an economic crash when trillions of dollars worth of property becomes unsalable due to prospective buyers being unable to get the insurance necessary to obtain a mortgage?

    Will prospective buyers decide that many parts of the U.S. are just too risky to justify buying property there, leading to economic collapse in those areas?

    Will the U.S. Government or state governments step up to provide coverage when private companies won't (sort of like the National Flood Insurance Program run by FEMA)? (Somehow I can't see conservatives being eager to socialize this risk.)

    Lots of interesting questions... 😄

    https://gizmodo.com/farmers-insurance-pulls-out-florida-shaky-market-1850632200

    789:

    For those with fond memories of The Small System Journal (aka Byte) you might like to look at the fairly large collecction digitised online at archive.org. My favourite (for obvious reasons) is https://archive.org/details/byte-magazine-1981-08 If nothing else, the adverts are hilarious - $1295 for a 64Kb ram card! Apple II with a whopping 48Kb for only $1095! 10Mb Wincheter Disk for just $3398...

    Looks like they have a few issues of Dr.Dobbs (which was founded by an old friend of mine back in '76) scanned and a load of individual web articles archived.

    790:

    Re: better than oversimplify
    How about "infantalise" ?

    791:

    It's sort of fascinating that apparently American women are now talking about their vaginas, without using "cute" words for it, a lot more. Less fascinating is that, as you say, they're actually talking about their vulva. Sort of good news bad news.

    792:

    I still boggle about the "great wall of vagina" artwork because I can't imagine any woman filling her vagina with plaster of paris, Germaine Greer or not. But obviously the whole things is about Swedish cars. likewise I just assumed that the whole vagina-steaming thing was about vulvas too, because the idea of jetting steam into a vagina is too horrible to contemplate.

    Do they have a euphemism for clitorus yet? Or is that just something that can't be discussed in a polite situation so no euphemism is necessary?

    (also, this is a context where 'infantalise' is probably not the best subsitute for 'dumb down')

    793:

    State Farm and Allstate have bailed out of California (fires, floods, mudslides, earthquakes, etc.)

    Listened to an longer podcast about California. Mostly about State Farm. I think they are just not writing new. And maybe not renewing if you don't also have auto. My SF policy has a "must renew" endorsement that I pay some minor amount for. I suspect there is similar in California.

    One thing discussed that the over the last 20 years in CA the net profits for the first 18 years were totally wiped out by the last 2 years. And those profits were not in a bank or mattress somewhere.

    I think it is interesting that State Farm and Allstate are the two top companies in CA. And likely in other states. Allstate is a stock company and has a terrible reputation for avoiding paying claims. Going back decades. State Farm is a mutual company. Excess profits (and yes, P&C insurance accounting is strange) are paid back to policy holders as dividends. Before the east coast of North Carolina started getting multiple hurricane hits per year I would get a check from State Farm every year or six months amounting to something like 2% or so of my premiums. While we are not in the terrible shape of CA, here in North Carolina those dividends are a distant memory.

    794:

    (As opposed to Byte, Doctor Dobbs, Circuit Cellar, etc.)

    One of those had an article about a DIY mouse with chording keyboard. All you had to do was move your finger tips to type. The thumb had a few extra positions. I've been looking for it for 25 years. I HAD the issue but it vanished in a marriage or move.

    796:

    There was someone (I think it was featured on Youtube, might have been another platform) who embedded the guts of a rollerball mouse into the underside of a conventional keyboard. He could slide it around on his desk for mouse movements and type on it as well. I don't think it worked that well, sadly.

    797:

    I suspect it would work better using a modern optical mouse. Especially if you put the whole deal on a mouse pad - they make pretty large ones now, mine is 49x42cm ish. And the optical part is pretty tiny, as long as you don't have one of the keyboards that is a slab of metal with a few plastic parts stuck to the top making a hole for the optics would be pretty easy.

    If course, using a plastic keyboard as a LART doesn't work very well...

    798:

    Polite alternative to "dumb down": "Overly simplify".

    799:

    The way I remember it, the newspaper business in the US was contracting well before Craigslist or wide availability of the Internet. Notably, evening newspapers and evening editions of morning newspapers started going away in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

    I think the proliferation of cable television channels about that time took up more of people's attention and more of advertisers dollars. Competition from Internet based options probably did make things much worse later on.

    800:

    microwriter?

    Same concept but DIY. And it fit under the palm.

    embedded the guts of a rollerball mouse into the underside of a conventional keyboard.

    Nope. It was about the size of a medium to larger mouse and fit under your palm. Neat. And I'm a pure touch typist when I need/want to be so it would work well for me.

    801:

    The way I remember it, the newspaper business in the US was contracting well before Craigslist or wide availability of the Internet. Notably, evening newspapers and evening editions of morning newspapers started going away in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

    My memory is that a lot of cities with 2 or more papers consolidated during that time. That created lots of ugly fights with unions.

    But until craigslist we had a decent local paper with a newsroom full of reporters who wrote articles about local and state things. Between the reports and columists I could even now likely think of 20 to 40 names if I tried. I think they are down to 4 now covering an area with maybe 7 million people. (Sports has 4, maybe 5, folks based on the names I see go by.) Oh, yeah, we're the state capital.

    Craigslist then Google and online ads took a downward sloping line and cratered it.

    802:

    20% by page count was mandatory in the UK in order to take advantage of lower bulk mail rates for books and periodicals.

    I never knew anyone who got the US Computer Shopper by mail. Especially bulk rate. I suspect that they sent it to a lot of tech folks as first class. I suspect us mortals all had to get it at a news stand, grocery, etc...

    As to page count. I'd be surprised if the editorial content was more than 1% based on my memories.

    803:

    How about Interface Age, Jan 78?

    https://archive.org/details/197801InterfaceAgeV03I01

    It is not a mouse...

    804:

    There is a whole world of people building weird interface gadgets, and I don't really mean the DIY keyboatrd people. I am more familiar with the six axis mouse crowd but I'm aware that the chording people exist and that the mouse people are not the most weird. I suspect that if you join some of the chording communities they will mostly ask questions like "but which type of chording mouse are you interested in?"

    805:

    »Not sure if you were in the US when craigslist hit in the US. But the newspapers here didn't know how to deal with their classified ad business vanishing in a year or so.«

    And eBay, and Google and FaceBook end...

    That was exactly my point:

    The paper media had to pay for paper, ink, presses, distribution and retail profit to deliver an ad, the cost for online delivery of the same ad was for all practical purposes zero.

    In addition, they could only deliver on timescales of days, weeks or even months.

    Politicians have still not figured out, that the entire (huge!) part of the economy which used to be "advertising", is now being pipelined directly into Google and FaceBook's tax-heavens with no income tax withheld.

    806:

    »Pass or Fail: It's looking like the U.S. is heading for a fail in our insurance industry.«

    The insurance industry is just doing the prudent thing: They will loose money if they continue business as usual in a world of climate change.

    The failure is USA's still quite idiotic response to greenhouse gasses.

    807:

    How about Interface Age, Jan 78?

    https://archive.org/details/197801InterfaceAgeV03I01

    Now that was a surprise and a bit of nostalgia I wasn't expecting. That advertisement on the inside front cover is for a Southwest computer, a brand I expect nobody else here has even heard of. But I remember it from high school; our school had one hooked up to a few dumb terminals and kids who sufficiently impressed Mr. Kring the math teacher could learn Pascal. In retrospect the operating system may have been something Unix related. I have no idea, this many years later, how much RAM ours had, or even if I knew then. This many years later, it's nice to see a picture to prove that I didn't just imagine the thing.

    808:

    "It is not a mouse..."

    Whereas this is.

    JHomes

    809:

    775: It was years before modems were a thing most people knew existed that you could buy. Hell, you couldn't even legally plug one into the phone line before 1984.

    Sorry, Charlie, but in 1982 Torch Computers were selling a computer with a built-in modem that could be plugged into the phone line. Okay, it was the old thick plug with four rings, and the modem was one specifically approved by British Telecom (or were they still the GPO? don't remember), but it was definitely legal.

    You can see one at the computer museum by Bletchley Park and another at the Cambridge comnputer museum.

    (I worked at Torch from graduating in 1982 until late 1987, then went briefly to London before being one of the founders of IXI in 1988.)

    810:

    P H-K @ 806
    Re: Climate Change THIS - And there are still morons, demagogues & liars claiming it does not exist.
    Most prominent, right now is probably Ron de Saint-Arse?

    J Homes
    "Theodore Beale" - isn't that the insane fascist who posts as "Vox Day" ??

    811:

    "Theodore Beale"

    Yes, that's him.

    JHomes

    812:

    And, in any case, there are modern human bones that are significantly older than 12K BP. Note that 40K years BP is during the last glaciation, though it is probable that humans were only summer visitors.

    https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/first-britons.html

    https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2022/oct/uks-oldest-human-dna-obtained-revealing-two-distinct-palaeolithic-populations

    813:

    The insurance industry is just doing the prudent thing: They will loose money if they continue business as usual in a world of climate change.

    Totally agree. But what about the economic impact of their decision to stop insuring certain parts of the U.S.?

    814:

    The failure is USA's still quite idiotic response to greenhouse gasses.

    Completely agree. However, most other countries are just as bad when it comes to ameliorating the causes of global warming. 😕

    815:

    That is the only proposal that is even remotely close, and it's not exactly clear.

    816:

    Yup. Not long after, I was told to give a presentation to a meeting at another site, and connect up by one of those. Oh, dear. Well, I learnt that live demonstrations were NOT something to do without thorough testing first ....

    I used one of those from the fairly early days (certainly well before they were legal) to work from home: a real pain. Even the 300/300 and 1200/75 baud modems were a pain, but line mode working became easy once you could get even 2400/2400. Delivered, that is, rather than in bursts.

    817:

    To quote "There's a name I have not heard in a long time."

    One of my first jobs was coding for a company called IMTEC that did most of their business with microfilm readers. They had, I believe, a license for Southwest products in the UK and were looking to sell mini computers running a few dumb terminals. Also the same computers built in to their film readers and cameras.

    Also my first experience of being made redundant.

    818:

    I never knew anyone who got the US Computer Shopper by mail. Especially bulk rate.

    In the UK market, how much a magazine could charge per page for adverts was dictated by the magazine's audited monthly circulation. The higher the ABC ranking, the more yuo could charge.

    The audited circulation was dictated by paying mail order subscribers, because that was a guaranteed readership.

    Shopper was the UK's 2nd ranked monthly computer mag for well over a decade, and it was finely optimized to maximize the ratio of advertising revenue to production overheads.

    They had to have 20% of their page count devoted to editorial content (news, reviews, op-eds) to get the discount postal rate, but that probably saved them 20p off the postal bill per copy, and when you're shipping out roughly 140,000 issues via the post office every month, that adds up to maybe £30K/month. Shopper paid about £150/page for content back then, so that £30K clawback by qualifying for the bulk mail rate meant that the editorial content was basically free.

    I believe the magazine actually sold at a loss, in terms of ink-on-paper and distribution costs. It must made money hand-over-fist on advertising sales because it had such a broad coverage of ... stuff ... that it probably spoke to your niche, however arcane that was, and it was so cheap everybody bought it.

    Basically it was a perpetual motion machine until Google murdered it. And it had the huge benefit wrt. today's advertising climate that only people who wanted to see the ads ever bought it.

    819:

    »But what about the economic impact of their decision to stop insuring certain parts of the U.S.?«

    Who knows?

    Maybe California and Florida will see less idiotic "development" in the future ?

    It's not like The Framers put a right to cheap insurance for any and all building, no matter how stupidly sited, into their draft.

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if this is really about regulation and price controls on home insurance.

    »However, most other countries are just as bad when it comes to ameliorating the causes of global warming.«

    Probably because most other countries need it less ?

    Most other countries have archæological evidence for the land being suitable for permanent dwellings.

    A town which has been on the maps for a millennia or two is not likely to be eradicated overnight by some freak phenomena of climate.

    There is almost no such archæological evidence in USA, quite possibly because the climate of that continent is not compatible with stable and untroubled lives on a multi-generational timescale.

    It was the industrial revolution which made it possible to survive in USA, culminating with air-con making it possible to populate the southern half too.

    But dont take my word for it: Read the last dozen IPCC reports.

    820:

    It's not like The Framers put a right to cheap insurance for any and all building, no matter how stupidly sited, into their draft.

    Doesn't the US have some federal (re?)insurance of last resort thing that's costing fuckloads and is going up rapidly? Costing taxpayers, not homeowners?

    I vaguely recall that in at least some Australian states builders have to guarantee availability of insurance for the duration of the warranty. Or something like that. Which leads to secret subsidies so people discover after some years that insurance against flooding costs $20,000/year not the $2,000/year they'd been paying.

    But this is my memory from years ago talking to someone socially and triggering a rant by saying "but how do you even get insurance building somewhere that floods every La Nina?" I'm not buying a new build, let alone a tract house, and extra especially not on a flood plain.

    821:

    As a friend of mine - a geology professor - once said: "never buy a house on Dry Creek Road".

    822:

    As a friend of mine - a geology professor - once said: "never buy a house on Dry Creek Road".

    Or in a development called "The Water Meadows".

    823:

    Ah, the infamous Vox Day's mouse. About as daft as its creator ...

    824:

    Yeah, but that was a rarity. I remember when the ICL One Per Desk went on sale -- also with a built-in modem! -- in 1984, and the GPO/British Telecom still had a national monopoly on answering machines, so despite having a speech synth chip and the ability to accept calls and offer a voice menu, it couldn't actually record incoming calls.

    (Didn't Torch also make the most insane peripheral for the BBC Model B -- the "co-processor" shoe-box with a 68030 and a hard disk that ran UNIX? At about 5-10 times the price of the BBC micro hosting it ...)

    825:

    We had a developer near us that wanted more money because it hadn't known that the drainage was poor - in a location called Clay Farm at most a foot or so higher than the stream that ran through it. I don't know whether they got it.

    826:

    Less than you might think. We were a bit ahead of the pack, but acoustic couplers were in common use in UK academia and research, and damn the legality. It was like home brewing before 1963.

    827:

    There is almost no such archæological evidence in USA, quite possibly because the climate of that continent is not compatible with stable and untroubled lives on a multi-generational timescale.

    Au contraire, there is evidence of large (city-sized) neolithic settlements in the USA before the most recent wave of European settlers imported smallpox and other zoonoses and wiped out the previous cultures -- for example, Cahokia. (Remember, the "native Americans" the English, Dutch, and French colonists encountered in North America from 1604 onwards were the survivors of successive plagues that ravaged both continents after 1492. By some analyses, the "little ice age" of roughly 1550-1650 was caused by a reduction in anthropogenic warming due to the catastrophic drop in CO2 emissions from pre-contact Americans.)

    828:

    Sorry - I meant to add that I know people who got good use from the peripheral. Yes, it was a very short term product, as it was killed by the Intel 386 and 387, but was one of the more cost-effective ways to get computing power before that.

    829:

    »acoustic couplers were in common use in UK academia and research, and damn the legality.«

    Acoustic couplers were 100% legal, as were any number of other contraptions which interfaced acoustically to the telephone network.

    830:

    "Germaine Greer back when she was a feminist was notorious for dropping the C word. Which IIRC started as a polite euphemism."

    In which case I have no idea which "C word" you're talking about, because the usual candidate goes back at least far enough to raise the question of just what it was that the Romans used to do with rabbits.

    (Unless it's "C++".)

    831:

    We had an article in the local paper about people moaning about their new flats all getting flooded.

    They are in the docks. Sold for their waterside views over a river that floods at least once a year and has 500 years' worth of "it got to here" marks carved into a wall a bit further up.

    832:

    Doesn't the US have some federal (re?)insurance of last resort thing that's costing fuckloads and is going up rapidly? Costing taxpayers, not homeowners?

    You are likely conflating 2 issues. Which is fine as most of the population in the US do the same. For the most part P&C (property and casualty) insurance is regulated at the state level. With some wide variation in the details. Many or most people sadly (see all those what word to use comments up thread) think only about price. So many people are under insured. Cue up all those tug at the heart strings TV news stories about someone who house burned down and them crying they can't rebuild as their insurance will not cover it.

    But to your point, if you can't get insurance from a regular insurance company, then most or all states have a secondary market fund which sells insurance to most anyone who has a legitimate need but the companies don't want the risk. And since these are usually set up as self funded operations they MUST break even and so the rates tend to be high. But they are there. If you've been in 4 at fault auto accidents in the last years most companies will not write you an auto policy. But the secondary market will. At eye watering rates. So how bad do you want to be able to legally drive. Liability insurance being a requirement to drive in all US states AFAIK.

    Now to the feds. The only federal insurance fund I know of is flood insurance. There may be more but I can't think of any.

    Flood insurance, going back decades, was hard to get as the risk was hard to predict. Flood maps are almost always out of date before even being published due to someone upstream doing something different or a new dam being built or a level being torn down, or a fast growing city paving over too much grass, or whatever. So Congress stepped in and created Federal Flood Insurance. And flood is a bit of a misnomer. It also covers your house being washed into the ocean during a storm. This program chronically charges way too little for the coverage even at what seems like absurdly high rates. Since it is a political animal raising rates is hard to do. There is one almost possible change that if your property get obliterated you get the money but can't build back. But that has also proven hard to get enacted into law.

    As a side note my State Farm policy defines a flood as rising water. Cue up the fights over what exactly that means. I'm sure there are a few 100 lawsuit results in just my state alone that are used to more precisely interpret the meaning of that phrase.

    833:

    They are in the docks. Sold for their waterside views over a river that floods at least once a year and has 500 years' worth of "it got to here" marks carved into a wall a bit further up.

    A thousand feet or so from me is a creek that typically has 6" of water a few feet wide. But the gully it is in is 40' to 50' wide and has a city green way trail in it. When we get BIG rains the entire gully floods and overflows in the neighboring land/yards. And there are very expensive houses there. All built with either piers or a concrete storage basement on the ground level. All the bits of these houses where you don't want water are 10' further up. About the level of the street they are on.

    834:

    there is evidence of large (city-sized) neolithic settlements in the USA before the most recent wave of European settlers

    Yep. Especially on the Mississippi and Ohio rivers. But both of those rivers have been turned into a series of lakes due to all the dams with locks to allow them to be transportation shipping ways. Plus levees on the sides to keep the high water down. The combination of these two things keep out the small floods but greatly magnify the larger floods.

    Any way those historical larger cities were not really that big relative to today's city sizes and tended to be well back from the rivers. Unlike modern cities that want docks.

    835:

    "Trivialisation" sort of works for the media, although it's not great.

    For the effect on the population, perhaps "thrombosis" might work.

    836:

    But in our case, sensible use of the ground floor still doesn't help when the building has become an island and you need a boat to get to it in the first place.

    837:

    Not in the UK, they weren't, not for ordinary domestic and (normal) commercial lines; you theoretically needed a special licence to transmit anything other than speech. It was enough of a gray area that a court MIGHT have found them legal, so the GPO/BT made nasty noises but didn't do anything.

    838:

    Back in the day AT&T would predict end times if someone didn't use the phone system the way AT&T intended it to be used. Or didn't pay extra. A LOT extra.

    839:

    But in our case, sensible use of the ground floor still doesn't help when the building has become an island and you need a boat to get to it in the first place.

    The situation I'm referring to very rarely lasts for more than a few hours. Till the water drains into the near swampy lakes along the creek.

    There is a mall on on the same creek system, only every 20 years or so does water get in the stores. But at times they close down the mall when the ground floor parking becomes "lake like". Maybe once a year.

    A bit further down there are some car dealers. You know high water is coming when their lots empty. After our direct hurricane Fran hit nearly 30 years ago their insurance carrier said, nope, no more. So they clear the lots when high water seems likely. I think the various auto dealers lost 200 to 300 cars in that hurricane.

    840:

    From someone whos career in this sector was destroyed by google etc. Yes basically ALL magazines and newspapers are delivery systems for advertising, so without ads all sell at a substantial loss.

    this isn't a new thing its been the model since the start (look at very old copies of the times for example and the whole front page was nothing but ads).

    The emphasis on editorial quality came from cut throat competition for adrevenues. (the more relevant purchasing power of readers the better price so you get both the sun (low income readers but a lot of them) and the FT (low reader numbers but have all money in the country)

    841:

    And in the UK. We had the same situation with people listening to foreign radio stations (and Radio Caroline), without paying a lot of money - yes, it was theoretically illegal, but unenforceable without a wartime level of fascism.

    842:

    Back in the day AT&T would predict end times if someone didn't use the phone system the way AT&T intended it to be used. Or didn't pay extra. A LOT extra.

    In the UK phone calls were charged per minute, while in North America you paid a flat rate per month. This is one reason business line were more expensive than residential lines — they were used more frequently and during the busy part of the day, so needed more provisioning at the switch.

    Residential phones were provisioned based on average usage rates (with a safety factor, of course). IIRC the average call length was 3 minutes. Modems totally screwed that up and if widely used would have led to clogged exchanges and inability to complete calls. (Recall that the legislated downtime for a phone line was one hour every forty years.)

    I argued at the time (when I worked at Bell) that a modem was basically like a teenaged girl in terms of tying up the line for long periods of time. (Sexist, yes. But also a time when boys were allowed to travel alone to visit friends while girls often weren't, so the phone was the only option for many.)

    Anyway, phone provisioning was a little like selling airline seats where you try to predict the number of cancellations, with the difference that an overfull exchange was a lot more serious than an oversold airplane.

    Which is a long-winded way of saying that if you wanted a line that you would be using all the time you were asking the phone company to provision it the same way they would several dozen regular lines, which was a lot more expensive, so the phone company naturally wanted to charge you more.

    843:

    Charlie @ 823
    The correct definition for him is: "Criminally Insane" (!)

    EC @ 838
    just like the lying, threatening utter bollocks the current power companies are uttering if you point-blank refuse to have a "smart" meter installed, yes?

    844:

    I don't make many mistakes, but I made one this morning.

    I noticed my favorite coffee cup will fit under the filter housing in my Mr Coffee Machine & got the bright idea to set the cup under there to fill it directly and get my coffee sooner ... I'd swap the carafe into place when the cup got full ...

    Then got distracted & walked away for a minute ... with (in hindsight) predictable results. 😏

    Ok, so I won't do THAT again.

    But it got me to thinking. I really don't make many mistakes ANYMORE. That's what getting old is all about. I've made so many of them already & hopefully LEARNED not to repeat them.

    I'd like to be young again; to be perpetually virile & in the prime of my life ... but not if I'm gonna have to make all those mistakes all over again.

    That's what youth is for. Making mistakes & hopefully surviving long enough to learn from them.

    845:

    In the UK, that wasn't the primary problem. It was that the laws were made well before modern computers were invented, the mandarinate is notorious for not moving with the times, and the GPO/BT was scared by the rise of telephone-based fax machines. With some reason, in the last case.

    846:

    David L @ 734:

    Also, can you imagine what some trucks loaded with buckets of easily caught live Asian Carp could do to the Great Lakes’ fishing industry as an act of eco-terrorism?

    That war is already being fought.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Sanitary_and_Ship_Canal#Asian_carp_and_the_Canal

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3oLeSPINOk

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3oLeSPINOk

    The second one says they're considered a delicacy in China & the Chinese are having trouble meeting demand. So much so they're having to close rivers because of over fishing.

    Seems like there's an opportunity for industrial scale harvesting for export ... (under the rubric "you got lemons, make lemonade!").

    Plus it says they're useful for fertilizer (one of the legends about the Puritans settling in Massachusetts Bay was the Native Squanto teaching them to plant a fish along with maize), and I'd bet they're good for CAT FOOD.

    And as for "people don't like bony fish", people in the U.S. eat catfish and I don't believe there's ANY fish bonier than catfish! It's all a matter of how you prepare them.

    847:

    Heteromeles @ 736:

    The funny thing is that in Asia carp are considered extremely good eating. (Snark) If Midwesterners could be more adventurous in their food choices, they could have truly massive amounts of good fish for really cheap.(/snark) Less snarky, all the expensive ACoE techno-fixes to keep the carp out of the Great Lakes are there in part because people aren't eating these...large food fish.

    adrian smith @ 737:

    people aren't eating these...large food fish

    they're just not hungry enough yet

    I'm guessing it's more a matter of large scale commercial exploitation is still in the development stage.

    Once the large AG ED schools develop a methodology & technology for INDUSTRIAL scale harvesting of those carp to where fishermen can make a living (aka PROFIT) exploiting invasive carp ...

    848:

    Clive Feather @745:

    721 #733

    I didn't get the chance to check last night. I didn't remember the newspad from the film, but the one that's shown in the IBM link is consistent with my memory of the book - you typed in a number to make it change to a new page (memories of Ceefax in the UK).

    However, that scene is clearly set on Discovery One on its way to Jupiter, while my memory of the book scene is that it's Heywood Floyd reading the news while waiting on the space station for his flight to Clavius Base. In the film that was replaced by him talking to his daughter over a video link.

    However, the BOOK "2001: A Space Odyssey" was written concurrently with making the film - Clarke worked closely with Kubrick on the novelization of the film

    Clarke commented somewhere (perhaps "The Making of 2001"?) that the book should really have said "By Arthur C.Clarke and Stanley Kubrick, based on the film by Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C.Clarke" while the film should have said "By Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C.Clarke, based on the book by Arthur C.Clarke and Stanley Kubrick".

    I'm pretty sure the book contains ALL of the scenes filmed for the movie, while some of those scenes ended up on the cutting room floor instead of in the final film. The book also contains some "scenes" Kubrick wanted, but wasn't able to bring to the screen visually.

    That's the thing about books. They can contain visuals our technology is still incapable of reproducing for film or video.

    So the "newspad" could appear in both places in the book, but not both in the film ... or it could appear in one place in the novel and be moved to another scene in the film.

    849:

    The Plaster Casters had it easier.

    850:

    Back when I bought copies of the big three SF mags, for a long, long time I thought that there was someone's doctoral thesis in how AMORC (the "public" Rosicrucians" full page ads, or full back or inside cover ads, supported science fiction and fantasy publishing in the US.

    As I used to say, they're not the Real Rosicrucians. If the Real Rosicrucians want you, they will come and get you....

    851:

    Actually, I think the correct words for him is "The US IRS would like a few words...."

    852:

    That's the thing about books. They can contain visuals our technology is still incapable of reproducing for film or video.

    So the "newspad" could appear in both places in the book, but not both in the film

    eg In the film the newspads on Discovery were always flat on a table or desk because the screen content was coming from a film projector underneath. That would have been difficult to do unobtrusively with Heywood Floyd sitting in an airline style seat and holding the device in his hands.

    853:

    842: yes, I was a senior manager at Demon Internet when we negotiated the first unlimited call length tariff with BT (okay, only from 00:00 to 06:00, but ...). A short while later they told us at a meeting that they needed something like a 35% increase in switching capacity to handle all the calls that were hitting "engaged" AND IMMEDIATELY REDIALLING. I do remember our own statistics showing that when a modem bank of (say) 5000 lines reached full, we immediately started seeing failed calls at the rate of 5000 to 10,000 per minute.

    824: yes, the Unicorn. GBP 2895 ex VAT. Also had a Z80B in it to run CP/M software. 256 KiB of RAM and 20 MiB of hard disc.

    Newspad: found the book. It wasn't at the space station, it was while Floyd was on an Aries-IB on a 25-hour flight from the space station to the moon.

    [...] he would plug his foolscap-sized Newspad into the ship's information circuit and scan the latest reports from Earth. One by one he would conjure up the world's major electronic papers; he knew the codes of the more important ones by heart, and he had no need to consult the list on the back of his pad. Switching to the display unit's short-term memory, he would hold the front page while he quickly searched the headlines and noted the items that interested him. Each had its own two-digit reference; when he punched that, the postage-stamp-sized rectangle would expand until it neatly filled the screen, and he could read it with comfort. When he had finished he would flash back to the complete page and select a new subject for detailed examination.

    Floyd sometimes wondered if the Newspad, and the fantastic technology behind it, was the last word in man's quest for perfect communications. [...]

    854:

    That war is already being fought.

    Just to be clear. The carp have made a mess of the "natural" fish populations of the Mississippi and associated rivers.

    The river next to Chicago is really a 100+ year old canal between the Mississippi River system and the Great Lakes. The mingling before the Asian Carp infestation showed up didn't do much to upset things. But the carp are voracious eaters and will destroy the fishing industries of the Great Lakes all the way to the Atlantic.

    The obvious solution is to close the canal. But industry has fought that off for years. So we keep trying to electrify the canal to piss off the carp enough so that they will not get to the Great Lakes. We WILL lose.

    855:

    Ah, benefiting from hard-earned wisdom while young.

    You might like Claire North's The First Fifteen Lives of Harry August. Harry August is born on New Year's Day 1919. Lives his normal life, dies... and is reborn as Harry August on New Year's Day 1919. And yes, this guy got to remember his lives. "I'm fifty two years old. I'm two hundred and six years old." Going to primary school again after 60-70 years is a real nuisance.

    Thinking about the universe of the book, I'm almost 100% sure he's living in a simulation. Nothing else makes sense, but it isn't mentioned in the book.

    856:

    A short while later they told us at a meeting that they needed something like a 35% increase in switching capacity to handle all the calls that were hitting "engaged" AND IMMEDIATELY REDIALLING.

    The person running Byte Magazine's BIX service had a similar situation. They started with a few modems into a Unix box of some kind. Then more. Then more. They had gotten up to something like 50 or so when he got a call.

    "This is xyz from the abc local phone company. Are you the operator of a group of modems on the call ring gropu starting with 999-999-9999?"

    "Yes"

    "We must talk".

    Apparently BIX was causing the blocking of a "crap ton" of local calls starting early evening and into the night. They were located in New England.

    857:

    In the UK phone calls were charged per minute, while in North America you paid a flat rate per month.

    Sort of. It varied a bit by state. But in general local residential calls were free in your local calling area. (In small towns and such it could be the entire county. When I was in the Pittsburgh area it was just about 1/5 of the metro area.) Businesses in some states had such "free" areas. In others it was all metered. (This was all a bit confusing as prior to computers the metering was hard to track and bill.)

    Then came PBX systems. So no more need for a 25 pair cable from your office to the central phone office PER EACH PHONE EXTENSION. Which AT&T was forced over time to allow (PBXs) instead of you having to use whatever they told you to use. Then the PBX systems became computerized. Now layer on top of this that "in state" long distance typically cost more than "state to state" long distance. In state long distance was under a different regulatory system and the taxes were a big source of government revenue in many states. (Still is in some countries who are still fighting that war.) Anyway, PBXs added ways to dial into them then dial out. Suddenly companies started telling their staff to do this to save money. (And break the law.) Not terrible but... But then companies located in 2 or more states started programming their PBX systems to route in state long distance to one of their PBX systems in another state which could route it back to the first state as an out of state call instead of an instate call. All kinds of regulatory fighting and "you can't do that" and "yes I can" and "we didn't do it, the customer did without asking", and so on.

    This was all based on circuit switching phone networks.

    High speed internet destroyed the distance factor in phone calls and most of the above just went away as everything became packet switched.

    But for a while you could order a T1 line (1 to 23 or 24 dedicated circuits) and the phone company would convert it to packet switching in the box at your office then back again at the other end of the line. [eyeroll]

    As someone else mentioned. Communications regulations got way behind reality starting in the later 60s / early 70s.

    858:

    With ours, the peak levels tend to last for a few days and significant floodiness for a few weeks.

    I wonder if the complaining buyers were misled by looking at the Victorian-era urban expansion nearby at the same sort of level as the new flats, and thinking that because those houses are old they can't possibly have been built in a stupid place by a bunch of cowboys looking for a fast buck. Nope. They flood too. Victorian builders didn't have nearly as many regulations to dodge.

    859:

    The reason I remember hearing about a lot for the GPO not allowing people to connect Stuff to the phone lines was isolation. They didn't trust anyone's insulation, and they didn't want their staff to have to expect anything worse than 50V at ??2.5k impedance. And even without that there are various non-lethal ways to subtly bugger up the equipment on the other end, particularly with the old electromechanical exchanges, if someone installs a strange device or installs a device strangely.

    860:

    In the film the newspads on Discovery were always flat on a table or desk because the screen content was coming from a film projector underneath. That would have been difficult to do unobtrusively with Heywood Floyd sitting in an airline style seat and holding the device in his hands.

    At Faircon 79 we had Douglas Adams as GoH, not long after the radio production of Hitchhikers Guide To The Galaxy had gone big and the BBC were filming the TV series. The eponymous Guide was a thick tablet-like device which was handheld, naturally. One of the TV props people was at the convention with a showreel and he explained how they implemented the handheld Guide. It was, like the Kubrick newspad in 2001, fed by a film projector, an 8mm or 16mm unit (can't remember now) with the animations and text pre-rendered onto the film. The clever trick was that the Guide was mounted on the end of a rod with a ball-swivel fixed to the ground and the projector was mounted to the rod with a mirror reflecting the projected image up onto the Guide's screen from the back. This allowed some limited movement of the Guide in Ford Prefect's hand as he consulted it.

    861:

    Mr. Tim @ 784:

    Bo, my specific question was, would you have expected that assembly language tutorial in Computer Shopper? (As opposed to Byte, Doctor Dobbs, Circuit Cellar, etc.)

    (Forgot about Dr. Dobbs, another favorite :) ).

    I seem to remember the that US Computer Shopper had the occasional very technical article. Would I have expected it to be there, probably not. But it wouldn't have really surprised me, either (more of: look at this! Cool!)

    The columnists for the mainline computer magazines in the U.S. also wrote for the U.S. versions of "Computer Shopper" and I'm well aware the U.K. magazine was a completely different thing because it WOULD occasionally show up on the magazine racks of U.S. bookstores and I'd buy a copy whenever I could because it DID have different articles that were useful for me learning about computers ... I don't know much, but what little I do know is mostly self taught.

    The U.S. version only occasionally had any kind of programming articles, concentrating on what you could do in terms of the HARDWARE you could buy from the advertisers. About the only programming articles I remember were some on BASIC and AT strings for modems.

    I started reading it in the mid-80s because the (commercial) fire/burglar alarm business was already switching over to computer based systems especially with the advent of the IBM PC - which became commercially available about 3 months before I was hired by the alarm company. 1

    By the end of 1982 I had several clients with larger systems based on the IBM PC as a host terminal.

    Mid-80s was also the time PC systems started filtering down to the Army (National Guard) unit level - for logistics at first, but it didn't take me long to figure out how to use it to fill in forms & create lesson plans (and save them for later reuse/sharing).

    1 It's been 30 years since I worked for them, but I've done some searching on-line. The alarm company I worked for is no longer in business, the company that bought them out is no longer in business and the vendor who supplied the computer systems we used as host systems no longer exists. I can't find any reference on line to the systems I had to work on & "program" ...

    862:

    When I moved into my current house in 1990 we had to get a new home phone number. For about a year we'd get a call once a month or so asking about repair and or warranty work on their roof top hot water system. Had to tell them sorry.

    863:

    I don't remember working on any studio sessions for HHGTTG, but one of my first sessions as a freshly trained VT engineer in the dungeons at Television Centre was sitting in front of a machine in TX1 and recording the animations from a telecine upstairs.

    864:

    Charlie Stross @ 786:

    Slackwitting is obviously the reason management insists on conferencing over Slack ...

    Didn't Slack start out as a place to discuss issues without the boss looking over your shoulder ... especially in situations where the boss WAS the issue?

    865:

    On the history of telephones in the UK:

    ISTR watching a TV programme about an early answering machine sold in the UK. At the time you couldn't actually buy an answering machine; all you could do was rent a shoebox-sized contraption with a couple of tape cassettes in it, for some ridiculous amount of money per month. The excuse was that if anyone could connect any old foreign junk to the phone socket then electrical faults would be legion, exchanges would burn down and the end times would arrive. So you were only allowed to plug in equipment rented from the GPO. And it was also a crime to sell anything intended to be connected to the phone socket.

    So one company invented an answering machine that had no electrical connection to the phone system. You put the handset of your phone in an acoustic coupler and the body of the phone in a Heath-Robinson affair that detected ringing from the electromagnet in the ringer and had an actuator for the hook switch. The amazing thing is that all this gimcrackery still worked out cheaper than renting the official machine.

    There was a court case, and the device was banned.

    866:

    Greg Tingey @ 681: [On the campaign against a pink door in Edinburgh New Town] I particularly note the photo-montage showing colours other than white, so it looks like someone or some petty group's personal spite, yes?

    From the linked article:

    Ms Dickson has previously said she was confused why she was being issued an enforcement notice when there were many other brightly coloured doors in the area.

    But the council said it could only act where it had received a complaint.

    So it looks like a rule intended to stop the Council from acting in arbitrary and pointlessly petty ways is being weaponised by some jerk.

    The obvious solution is to send in formal complaints about every other door. The resulting stink should cause the injection of some common sense. Or the sale of a lot of dark gloss paint.

    867:

    David L @ 839:

    A bit further down there are some car dealers. You know high water is coming when their lots empty. After our direct hurricane Fran hit nearly 30 years ago their insurance carrier said, nope, no more. So they clear the lots when high water seems likely. I think the various auto dealers lost 200 to 300 cars in that hurricane.

    That actually predated Hurricane Fran by a couple of decades. I moved into the house I recently sold just about 3 months before the first flood. I lived about a mile or so over the hill from where the creek flooded. I was on fairly high ground and saw it all pretty much at first hand but didn't experience any flooding.

    Old style VW Beatles would float ... great safety feature if you accidentally run off into a river & need to get out (a sun roof helps) ... not so great if you're a VW dealer whose lot sits on a flood plain and you get a "500 year" level flood.

    The VW dealer lost about 50 brand new VW Beatles - floated away down Crabtree Creek. I don't think the Buick, Oldsmobile & Cadillac dealers had any cars wash away, but they were all affected by flooding.

    If you look at the stores in the area now, you can see that they've all been rebuilt on artificial mounds that rise up above the flood levels (IF you know what to look for).

    That was the same 500 year flood where the mall did not get flooded because the manager at Sears had his maintenance crew go around and caulk all of the outside mall entrances, which kept the water from getting in.

    Sears manager asked the mall management to reimburse the store for the materials Sears employees used & the time they spent protecting the mall from the flood ... and the ID10Ts at the mall stiffed him.

    A few months later there was another "500 year flood", costing the mall several million dollars in repairs & lost revenue because the manager at Sears had his people caulk the doors at Sears (including the doors leading into the mall) and let the rest of the mall GFY.

    And the car dealerships downstream hadn't YET learned the lesson about having the new car lot on the flood plain ... BUT THEY LEARNED IT FROM THE SECOND FLOOD!

    Look at the map of Raleigh today and you can see Shelley Lake, Lake Lynn and Lake Crabtree. All of those are flood control structures built in the Crabtree Creek watershed AFTER that pair of 1975 floods.

    The Crabtree Creek watershed is also home to those invasive Asian Carp ... but they're not safe to eat because of Ward Transformer - another environmental crime that still affects the area decades later.

    868:

    @ Moz: I would have thought that Australians might eat lots of rabbit, but I guess if something is thought of as a pest, people won't want to eat it however tasty it is.

    Well that's mostly a scaling issue. Where there's a limited local population, shooting/hunting can work to keep it under control as I guess is the case in parts of the UK. But the overwhelming majority of rabbit control activity here is through baiting, and it's not a good idea to eat found poisoned animals. Add to that: rabbits are mostly a problem in wild ecosystems, "the bush" and especially in rural settings. And while those locations account for the vast majority of the land, most of the people live in cities (Australia's population is 86.4% urban) and while I can't say there are zero feral rabbits in suburban Brisbane, for instance, I don't need all the fingers on one hand to count the number of times I've seen one in the last 30 years (I've seen more wild foxes, another introduced species).

    869:

    JReynolds @ 855:

    Ah, benefiting from hard-earned wisdom while young.

    You might like Claire North's The First Fifteen Lives of Harry August. Harry August is born on New Year's Day 1919. Harry August is born on New Year's Day 1919. Lives his normal life, dies... and is reborn as Harry August on New Year's Day 1919. And yes, this guy got to remember his lives. "I'm fifty two years old. I'm two hundred and six years old." Going to primary school again after 60-70 years is a real nuisance.

    Thinking about the universe of the book, I'm almost 100% sure he's living in a simulation. Nothing else makes sense, but it isn't mentioned in the book.

    Added to my "cart" at Big River, so I'll find out with my next batch book order.

    870:

    It's also a harvesting issue. While it's (sometimes) acceptable just to drag a big net accross an area scooping up everything then discarding the bits you don't want, people are reluctant to do that for pest control on land. They used to do it in Queensland using a big chain and a couple of bulldozers to get rid of vegetation, but it's hard to do that with a net fine enough to catch rabbits. With fish and non-owned land bottom trawling is perfectly fine in most places. Doing it to rid a canal of fish seems plausible but obviously you'd be selecting for smaller fish that breed earlier...

    871:

    Yes indeed, actually a wall of vulvas. And jetting steam into your vagina could kill you, so no, not a thing. I hope. The only euphemism of which I'm aware for the clitoris is the little man in the canoe (from memory). Although considering the fact that we have since discovered just how big it is that's bit outdated.

    872:

    "giant woman under the labia" doesn't have quite the same ring :)

    "all hat no cattle" springs to mind if there's an opposite. "small hat big cattle"?

    873:

    Well I suppose using nets is sort of equivalent to trapping, which is something else I left out. But again trapping rabbits for food is less viable where rabbits are routinely baited with 1080 (along with everything else, which is why people muzzle dogs travelling through rural Australia).

    They used to do it in Queensland using a big chain and a couple of bulldozers to get rid of vegetation

    They used to and still do it everywhere there's a small cottage industry turning old native hardwood forests into wood chips for paper and export, usually subsidised an order of magnitude higher than any income from local jobs and forestry royalties via roads, ports and forest management and hey, no-one seems to mind, direct cash grants and "commercial incentives".

    874:

    »But for a while you could order a T1 line (1 to 23 or 24 dedicated circuits) and the phone company would convert it to packet switching in the box at your office then back again at the other end of the line. [eyeroll]«

    That eyeroll is misplaced.

    "T1 carrier" was based on a prototype built in the tail end of the 1950ies, using a CRT tube for A/D converter, and it goes into production in 1962 for short haul trunking, mainly between the different central offices in metropolitan areas, but by 1965 there is already 2more than 4000 spans in operation.

    Because the rest of the phone network was analog, a T1 span had analog interfaces in both ends: A "D1 channel bank", the T1 line with repeaters as necessary, and another D1.

    But it doesn't take long before some customers eye the 1.5Mbit/s digital bandwidth, and from 1965 you can rent a T1 span for digital traffic, under a large number of technical restrictions, which in practice means IBM+MIL only.

    There is a good contemporary overview article here:

    https://archive.org/details/bstj44-7-1405/mode/2up

    In 1994 I was rather taken back, coming from Europe to Oakland, CA and seeing the enormous space requirements for AT&T's "vintage" PCM kit, but that is where the eyeroll gets really dicey:

    AT&T operated with a 40 year investment horizon: By executive policy they designed and built stuff to last 40 years, and they stuck religiously to it.

    If you ordered a T1 span with analog termination, and they had two D1's in stock, you got those two D1's, unless they were more than 25 years old or had too many trouble tickets against them.

    And so returning to the "it was a different time back then" meta-theme:

    Most of the technological complaints about AT&T can be boiled down to them being into "circular economy" a century before everybody else even heard about it.

    Should we, today, roll our eyes at that ?

    875:

    »The reason I remember hearing about a lot for the GPO not allowing people to connect Stuff to the phone lines was isolation. They didn't trust anyone's insulation,«

    And rightly so: In the days/countries of pole-lines, the longitudinal lightning currents and voltages is a substantial fire hazard.

    The invention of the 25-mil carbon-block spark gap was one of the major enablers of telephone service without a fire hazard.

    876:

    If you ordered a T1 span with analog termination, and they had two D1's in stock, you got those two D1's, unless they were more than 25 years old or had too many trouble tickets against them.

    My detail knowledge of what AT&T did and called things is weak. So...

    Around the late 90s or 2000s I had a client put in a new PBX. It had a choice of a digital ISDN or whatever the interface was called then or an analog T1 setup. The analog T1 was much cheaper from the local (Bellsouth at the time) phone company. But the box installed converted the T1 to a digital circuit and it was packet switching from there on.

    I had an older cousin who was a sale/market something or the other in Chicago in the 70s. He could spin the story of what was needed and why to protect the vaunted AT&T network from the terrible customer equipment they wanted to plug in. Or jump to the other size and say it was all nonsense. Well 99%. But only in private.

    Being the the minicomputer application turn key system biz in the 80s was fun. Trying to get a leased line or permission to plug in an async RS232 multiplexer was fun. Just getting the order straight was like getting a root canal at times. Especially dealing with 80 or so different phone companies. Maybe 100 or more. 50+ states plus many states with more than one company. GTE was the worst. And they had southern California, including the entire LA basin. They eventually morphed into Sprint and seemed to have turned their land line business over to others.

    877:

    Paul @ 866
    Also - how were those front doors originally painted?
    They all look nicely panelled, which is simply begging out for some fancy lining-out, in the manner the Vitorians were so fond of.
    My own front door is painted in a "simplified" version of GNR loco livery: Main colour a grass green, with the spaces around the panels in dark olive, lined-ot between should be White-black-white, but I just used one or the other. The surround equates to the underframes, so it's chocolate-brown, with vermilion lining.

    Pythons & other non-two-legged invasions in Florida? Like this?
    I think I prefer the python to R de saint-Arse!

    878:

    I was thinking more about the people who bulldoze kep forests to harvest fish, or chain-drag "scrub" to get farmland, rather than people who harvest timber that way. It's the destruction of something valuable to get a less valuable consumable... that won't grow back because they destroyed the place it used to grow back from.

    Harvesting rabbits by bulldozing suburbs sounds attractive, but not so much for the rabbit meat...

    879:

    https://newmatilda.com/2023/07/13/bad-climate-an-illustrated-guide-to-kiribatis-ongoing-fight-for-survival/

    Interesting notes on what's happening in Kiribati. Note the horrible news at the end about Oz and NZ deliberately recruiting medical staff away from the country. There's not really a good solution there, at least within a capitalist+statist system.

    880:

    That was true, but it was used more as an excuse than a reason. If I recall, the regulation was "no devices not approved by the GPO". When the GPO was asked how to get a device approved, the response was "we don't do that". The LAW was in terms of data versus voice (see Paul, #865).

    This is like a parking form at work, where I asked for an entry "other disability", only to be told that the form couldn't be changed. When I then asked who had the power to change it, the response was "we do".

    None of this has anything to do with what was technically possible, or even manufactured, and some of the things Thatcher did to loosen up the UK were well overdue.

    881:

    Euphemisms, you say? Well from immediate memory, the Profanisaurus has the devil's doorbell and the wail switch, so there's two. And if I could be bothered to look them up, there's definitely going to be more that have slipped my mind.

    882:

    They all look nicely panelled, which is simply begging out for some fancy lining-out, in the manner the Vitorians were so fond of.

    I'm pretty sure that's Not Legal in the New Town, per planning regulations. Plain flat colours in period-authentic tones, brass furniture, doors to be of traditional construction in wood (no laminates or fibreglass or double-glazing panels).

    883:

    That was true, but it was used more as an excuse than a reason. If I recall, the regulation was "no devices not approved by the GPO". When the GPO was asked how to get a device approved, the response was "we don't do that". The LAW was in terms of data versus voice (see Paul, #865).

    When I studied Computer Science in 1979 we had a lecture that could have been titled "Why I Hate BT".

    884:

    Charlie
    I do, actually have an old-fashioned brass-knob-that you-pull doorbell!
    Which, needless to say confuses some idiots, who try to PUSH IT

    885:

    If I recall, the regulation was "no devices not approved by the GPO". When the GPO was asked how to get a device approved, the response was "we don't do that".

    In Canada paramedics are (or at least were) licensed by the provinces. In Ontario the government turned over control of licensing paramedics trained in other provinces over to the colleges that trained paramedics, reasoning that those who trained paramedics were best equipped to judge if a paramedic was well-trained.

    Back in the 80s, when my sister looked at working here, the fee for the exam was comparable to a year of tuition at the college. Given she had just graduated a two-year training program, to higher standards than Ontario's one-year program, she decided not to move here.

    Sometimes the problem is technical (engineers job is easier if they don't have to fortify the network against poorly-designed outside equipment), but most often it's managerial/bureaucratic.

    886:

    As a friend of mine - a geology professor - once said: "never buy a house on Dry Creek Road".

    A college geology professor of mine told the class how he'd once said a very wrong thing.

    Some developers had been working on a project and gotten as far as needing to check on the qualities of the land in question, and hired him as a consultant. The area was green, and beautiful, and close enough to Seattle, and not yet built up - easy money, right? As soon as they brought out the map he gave a big smile and said, "Oh, yeah, I know that place! That's where the mud slides come down off of Mount Rainier!"

    And then he looked up at their faces and realized that was not what they wanted to hear.

    887:

    I argued at the time (when I worked at Bell) that a modem was basically like a teenaged girl in terms of tying up the line for long periods of time.

    As someone who spent way too many hours on BBSes and also grew up with a sister in the house, I can find nothing wrong with this. My sister spent much of her teen years with a phone growing out of her ear. :-)

    (Teenage me took to answering the phone, "Ann's not here." It worked. And if she was home, there was no point in me answering the phone.)

    888:

    Old style VW Beatles would float ... great safety feature if you accidentally run off into a river & need to get out (a sun roof helps)

    Yes! (Provided the door rubber is good; the seals in both of my Beetles were over a quarter century old and showed it.) Indeed, with the distributor waterproofed (a plastic bag and some tape will do it) and some kind of air-intake snorkel fitted, an otherwise stock Type I will serve as a rather crappy amphibious vehicle. Needless to say, crazed VW enthusiasts have taken advantage of this for fun and shenanigans.

    I've read a story, true as far as I know, of a Beetle owner hurrying home during a storm only to spot her car floating downriver the other way. She turned around and followed it, and was able to see where it came to rest. When she returned the next day, after the flood subsided, she was able to get into her car, start the motor, and drive home.

    889:

    "In the days/countries of pole-lines..."

    They seem to be going back to that round here. We have underground cables linking poles every 50m or so, with lines from the top of each pole to the eaves of the houses. But in the last month or two, each pole has grown another two or three cables from the top of it to the top of the next pole along, either as well as or instead of the cables underground.

    One might hope that cables on top of poles rather than cables in ducts half full of water, with submerged connections, would be an improvement, but actually it appears that although they can render the connections in ducts waterproof, they haven't realised that the ones up on top of the poles need comparably good sealing. Or something like that. At least, it doesn't seem to have made any difference to the propensity of my internet connection to conk out more frequently and stay conked out for longer when it rains.

    890:

    They seem to be going back to that round here. We have underground cables linking poles every 50m or so, with lines from the top of each pole to the eaves of the houses. But in the last month or two, each pole has grown another two or three cables

    It's probably OpenReach fibre -- glass doesn't bend round corners as easily as twisted-pair copper cables, so they prefer to string them from poles around here.

    891:

    Rbt Prior
    Sometimes the problem is technical (engineers job is easier if they don't have to fortify the network against poorly-designed outside equipment), but most often it's managerial/bureaucratic. Yeah - you've got an MSc in Engineering, but you can't get a job as an electrician, because you don't have that EXACT piece of paper......

    892:

    I vaguely remember that idea, but I'm not sure about "banned"; I think it just wasn't very popular, probably because it was awkward and nobody wanted an answering machine anyway apart from a few businesses who could stand the cost of a real one and not notice. Also I'm not totally sure there was only one of them. As I remember, another use for the idea became fractionally more popular when the number of people wanting modems began to be distinguishable from zero. But that only lasted a year or two before you started to be allowed to plug stuff into the phone line anyway and it was no longer needed.

    893:

    The funny thing is that they also came round a year or two back installing massive amounts of buried purple ducting for that, on all streets except the little end-of-twig ones (like mine), and pulled fibre through to really all streets, including the wee twigs. All the poles sprouted new clean tails of blue polypropylene rope at the base for the dogs to piss on, and began to develop clusters of black interface berriesboxes at the top, growing slowly, one box at a time. (That was also when I started receiving nasty-looking dead tree spam from some outfit called "City Fibre" trying to scare me into buying internet off them, at a rate of at least one item a fortnight, all of which I have thrown away unopened.)

    The extra cables linking the tops of the poles are something they've done much more recently, like in the last few weeks, with crews in BT vans turning up to fiddle with the same pole in repeated bursts of several days at a time. I suppose I really ought to stop and actually ask them what they're doing it for :)

    894:

    I don't recall where I saw the picture, it may have been in a telecoms journal but it showed the size of various consumer-line termination equipment for exchanges from the mid-1960s onwards. It started off with a rack to deal with 16 lines then a similar-sized rack that could handle 64 lines, then a large PCB that could convert 64 lines into multiplexed analog I/O that could be sent down a single coaxial cable and so on. The final unit was a small-ish PCB the size of your hand that could convert 128 incoming phone signals into a packet-switched digital signal transmitted over twisted-apir. I think the article was published before optical fibre became commonplace.

    895:

    The funny thing is that they also came round a year or two back installing massive amounts of buried purple ducting for that, on all streets except the little end-of-twig ones (like mine), and pulled fibre through to really all streets, including the wee twigs. All the poles sprouted new clean tails of blue polypropylene rope at the base

    Simple. In front of my house in Raleigh, NC I have on the poles, AT&T Fiber, Google Fiber, Spectrum (was TimeWarner) Coax, Duke Power substation feed, and Duke Power local neighborhood feed. Plus Earthlink (last I saw as it changes every few years) has some dark fiber underground between the sidewalk and my property line that was originally run by BTI over twenty years ago before the 2000 dot com bust. The intent was FTTH way before it was practical.

    Oh yeah. The pole that feeds my house also has a switch for substation power loop. And an AT&T splice barrel over my driveway.

    I get trucks in front of my house at least once a month.

    896:

    Charlie @ 890: It's probably OpenReach fibre

    Or Toob, or CityFibre, or Hyperoptic. OfCom has recently required "Duct & Pole Access" (DPA). This means that any broadband company can legally put their own fibre or whatever down ducts and up poles owned by OpenReach. So a bunch of companies have done so, and OpenReach finally got a move on too because otherwise it was obvious they would be left behind.

    (Rant: This is what government regulation of a monopoly privatised company should look like. Unlike OfWat and the water companies. End of rant).

    BTW, if this sounds familiar, we covered this ground some months ago.

    897:

    Some can't do that. In April, I think, of '93, in Austin, we had a hailstorm. We're talking literal golfball-sized hail. The huge car dealerships at the north end of Austin went under - all their brand new cars were listed as totalled, due to the dents in every one, far more than their insurance would cover (a co-worked had his side-view mirror knocked off).

    898:

    Which they obviously didn't sell at a discount, with the guarantee excluding bodywork, because that would reduce the sales of full-price cars.

    899:

    Moz @ 870:

    It's also a harvesting issue. While it's (sometimes) acceptable just to drag a big net accross an area scooping up everything then discarding the bits you don't want, people are reluctant to do that for pest control on land. They used to do it in Queensland using a big chain and a couple of bulldozers to get rid of vegetation, but it's hard to do that with a net fine enough to catch rabbits. With fish and non-owned land bottom trawling is perfectly fine in most places. Doing it to rid a canal of fish seems plausible but obviously you'd be selecting for smaller fish that breed earlier...

    In one of the videos I found on controlling the invasive carp an "expert" said something about the method they use to drive the Asian Carp with electric shock AND sound waves didn't affect the native fish.

    So that seems like they could herd the Asian Carp into an area where they could be easily netted & fishermen should be able to sort the catch so any native fish that did get into the haul could be released back into the wild.

    Also saw in the news yesterday that someone in Florida captured (killed?) a RECORD 19 foot long Burmese Python and in another place they discovered Python with a nest that had 111 eggs.

    900:

    you've got an MSc in Engineering, but you can't get a job as an electrician, because you don't have that EXACT piece of paper.

    I had to do practical work experience ("internship" today I suspect) as part of an electrical engineering degree and spent a few months working for a firm of electricians. I have fuck all idea of how to do their job, there's parts of it that are "common sense" like not nailing electrical cables in place, and the other 90% of the job is knowing that S60.3.2vii requires a separation of 350mm between this particular type of wire and this type of plumbing fitting. In Aotearoa at the time having an electrical engineering degree would have shaved one year off a four year electrician apprenticeship.

    There's a lot of hard-earned scorn from trades towards engineers. In 3-4 months work I definitely got to see some places where at least two highly trained professionals had looked at some plans and said "this is fine". Electricians are the people who connect light here to power supply over there based on a dotted line running through mid air on the plans. Despite the name an "air nailer" will not nail things to air...

    901:

    Yeah, I've read a bit about that canal and IIRC Tom Scott did a video on it. It's one of those "however did they discover that" type things to me. Mind thoroughly boggled.

    We have those or something functionally equivalent in the Australian river (the Murray-Darling Basin drains the right hand side of Australia, the left hand side is a desert... it's "the" river). From what I know they have more or less given up, they have a herpes? virus that kills them but it's not transmissible enough or lethal enought to wipe them out completely but it helps. And during normal years the rivers often turn into chains of ponds that can be emptied but it's very labour intensive and of course when the water comes back so do the fish... especially the much more mobile invasives.

    902:

    The nasty-looking dead tree spam I keep getting has all had City Fibre on the envelope, but the vans parking next to the poles doing things are all labelled Openreach.

    904:

    Compared to that lot, we are indeed simple :) We have one set of cables for power (all underground round here) and one set for phone/data (part underground, part up poles, qv).

    Nor do we have zillions of companies all fighting over the same pole; despite Paul's comment @ 896 the phone/data cables are all BT. City Fibre may be saying some of it is "theirs" but it's still BT who's doing it (see observation @ 902). I suspect what's actually going on is much the same as happened with ADSL, where there was a lot of noise about "unbundling" which was a silly word they made up to refer to other companies notionally being allowed to have their own kit in BT's exchanges, but as far as anyone except twisted gnomes in dusty offices full of paperwork could discern it was still all BT to all intents and purposes.

    (In bits of the country there was also another set of data cables installed underground for cable TV, which was a bit of a flop, and then it turned into internet cabling and other complicated things happened to it which I don't know about because we haven't got it round here and places that do have it it's shit.)

    905:

    TBH they both sound dreadful! I'll stick with clit I reckon.

    906:

    Yeah - you've got an MSc in Engineering, but you can't get a job as an electrician, because you don't have that EXACT piece of paper

    Having seen what MsCs do in the lab, I'm very happy one of them wasn't responsible for wiring my house — or anywhere I have to work.

    When I was in uni studying electrical engineering my third-year lab partner was an electrician with years of experience doing everything from wiring houses to working on 22kV DC mining machines. He found lots of safety problems in the engineering building, and I think ended up giving seminars to the grad students. (Just as us electronics undergrads prevailed upon the department technician to teach up the basics of soldering and wire-wrapping — practical skills that weren't part of the curriculum.)

    907:

    Where I live all cabling is up in the air because the water table is close to the surface. Quite literally - my lawn never turns brown, even in the deepest of droughts.

    908:

    I've just come across an interesting FAIL

    Last night, I was listening to the First Night of the Proms - an excellent performance, which was, very breifly, interrupted by twats from "just stop oil" - who seem determined to wreck their own cause. But that's bye-the-bye: The performance was not just live on radio, but live on TV, as are many of the proms, OK?
    Switch back to the Laundry & we have the twisted performance of "The King in Yellow" in the Laundry series, right?
    What happened to the watchers on TV round the planet, or those listening on the radio?
    Or did Charlie forget / not know about them?

    Incidentally, just to confirm Theodore Sturgeon ... tonight's main prom is utter crap, but the late-lunchtime one from (London)Derry looks good & tomorrows should be brilliant ....

    909:

    One possibility is that they are replacing ancient wire, and it's better to string all the new wire and change the connection once.

    910:

    I am increasingly of the opinion that Just Stop Oil is a black operation funded by Shell, BP, and Esso, with the tacit approval of the Home Office, working to discredit sane climate change protestors.

    Just like PETA being funded by the meat industry and big ag.

    (The latter admits an alternative explanation: PETA is run by a bunch of grifters who use animal rights as a fund-raising front, much as the L*nd*v*r B*pt*st Ch*rch use "God Hates Fags" protests as a pretext to sue small town governments for violating their first amendment rights. But JSO doesn't show any obvious monetization opportunities, so I think it more likely it's going to be Spy Cops Scandal 2.0 in a few years time.)

    911:

    Charlie @ 910
    All-too-possible: They are so obioulsy incompetent, arrogant & needlessly annoying.

    Which reminds me: Today's "FT" has a long article on fighting wildfires & another on "Declaring the Anthropocence is a WARNING" - which it is.
    "we" - all of us here know this & so do large swathes of the population, but, in spite of "noises off" it's clear the tories don't really care, they "think" a little more delay or slow reaction can be mitigated.
    Not so in the USA, where it appears the Rethuglicans are still in 150% denial about the whole thing. As has been noted, the US insurance companies are backing away, but the politicians are ignoring it - look at de Saint-Arse & IQ45.
    SO: question for "H" & all USA-ians here ... what will it take to convince them, or don't they care - all they care about is "owning the libs" & ruling over the wreckage & ruins?

    912:

    Actually, I would bet on the principals being the other way round. The fossil fuel industries have been heavily into 'influencing' environmental pressure groups for many years, but that's done in an entirely different (and more 'commercial' way).

    And I will bet that we WON'T see such a scandal, because I am pretty sure that the government fascists have learnt, and it will be much more professionally (i.e. indirectly and deniably) organised. For example, not by the police.

    913:

    The contemporary (Formerly) GOP doesn't have a lot to it, they're more anti-Democrat, not so much plan as peristalsis. Whatever a democrat is for they want to oppose, going so far as embracing racism and fascism to do so. In their enthusiasm to be the most not Democrat, they've largely abandoned conservatism, which pretended to principal, even if it had few. I suspect owning the libs & ruling over the wreckage & ruins is what they want, it flatters their inner alpha primate.

    914:

    GT - Yeah - you've got an MSc in Engineering, but you can't get a job as an electrician, because you don't have that EXACT piece of paper

    Moz - Having seen what MsCs do in the lab, I'm very happy one of them wasn't responsible for wiring my house — or anywhere I have to work.

    My college was about Electrical Engineering. My life experience included learning how to do electrical wiring for homes. There is not a lot of overlap in the skills needed to be good at one or the other. In most of the US it is legal to do your own personal work if it meets code. And a huge NO on property belonging to others, or MIGHT be rented or sold to others within a year.

    Electricians may not know WHY the electrons flow down a wire or why how to design a GFCI circuit, but they do know how to meet code and do it in a way that is safe. And, yes, there is a reason getting licensed in most of the US requires a 4 year apprenticeship.

    915:

    Some developers had been working on a project and gotten as far as needing to check on the qualities of the land in question, and hired him as a consultant. The area was green, and beautiful, and close enough to Seattle, and not yet built up - easy money, right? As soon as they brought out the map he gave a big smile and said, "Oh, yeah, I know that place! That's where the mud slides come down off of Mount Rainier!" And then he looked up at their faces and realized that was not what they wanted to hear.

    Sane developers check the qualities of the land in question first, and it's certainly part of appraisal and sale in California (speaking from personal experience). If the developer is doing planning before working out what the site will let them do, they're either newbies, scammers, idiots, super-rich, or some combination of these. The point is that consultants aren't hideously expensive, so stinting on them early can easily lead to a lot of otherwise avoidable costs later on. The other point is that most undeveloped sites these days are undeveloped for a reason, and the good sites were developed years ago. Experienced developers know this and want to find out what's wrong with a place before buying in.

    It's interesting how many environmental battles have had groups like Sierra Club fighting not just for bugs and bunnies, but to keep people out of high fire and flood areas. The town of Paradise was one example. Sierra Club 20-odd years ago opposed development in the area due to the obvious fire risk. Development went in, and a decade later the place burned despite their precautions. Now people are rebuilding, purportedly with more precautions. We'll see how that goes. I think the insurance companies are sane to think very carefully about what they're willing to insure in such areas.

    916:

    Now people are rebuilding, purportedly with more precautions. We'll see how that goes.

    Yes. Everyone wants to live in a concrete bunker. Even if it survives the blow torched surroundings. Because the roads, commercial buildings, etc... will all also be OK.

    917:

    Well, supposedly. About half the electrical work and a fair amount of the DIY that I have done has been fixing up the poor and often unsafe workmanship done by qualified professionals.

    918:

    I'd agree to some degree. My 1961 house had lots of "wrong" things when I bought it in 1990. But grounded outlets were not a code requirement in 1961. And some of it was obvious DIY things done by previous owners.

    For a long time in the US you couldn't get a CO (cert of occupancy) without a code pass for plumbing, electrical, structure, etc... And the power and water folks would not hook you up without such.

    But yes, code enforcement was (and can still be in places) a bit lax in the US going back in the past at times. Then you have Chicago and New York and a few other place. Electrical must be in rigid or flex metal conduit. And such. Which leads people to try and avoid the code folks and then do really stupid things.

    But in general the system works. And as Moz said, I've known many folks who knew electricity and electronics but who should never get near replacing an outlet or wall light switch.

    919:

    Moz @ 901:

    Yeah, I've read a bit about that canal and IIRC Tom Scott did a video on it. It's one of those "however did they discover that" type things to me. Mind thoroughly boggled.

    The Tom Scott video is one of those I linked to ...

    We have those or something functionally equivalent in the Australian river (the Murray-Darling Basin drains the right hand side of Australia, the left hand side is a desert... it's "the" river). From what I know they have more or less given up, they have a herpes? virus that kills them but it's not transmissible enough or lethal enought to wipe them out completely but it helps. And during normal years the rivers often turn into chains of ponds that can be emptied but it's very labour intensive and of course when the water comes back so do the fish... especially the much more mobile invasives.

    I don't think it's ever going to be possible to completely wipe out the invasive Asian Carp. But I do think they can be managed & there's opportunity in that management to create new jobs & find new resources.

    I hope it will be possible to keep them out of the Great Lakes system.

    920:

    Robert Prior @ 906:

    "Yeah - you've got an MSc in Engineering, but you can't get a job as an electrician, because you don't have that EXACT piece of paper"

    Having seen what MsCs do in the lab, I'm very happy one of them wasn't responsible for wiring my house — or anywhere I have to work.

    When I was in uni studying electrical engineering my third-year lab partner was an electrician with years of experience doing everything from wiring houses to working on 22kV DC mining machines. He found lots of safety problems in the engineering building, and I think ended up giving seminars to the grad students. (Just as us electronics undergrads prevailed upon the department technician to teach up the basics of soldering and wire-wrapping — practical skills that weren't part of the curriculum.)

    Back in the day when I was doing various construction trades, I did suggest that all professional engineering education should require at least one year of practical experience in whatever building trade was appropriate to their degree

    ... prompted by an experience trying to pull overly large bundles of wires through conduit.

    Just because "CODE" says you can fit that many wires in 1/2" EMT doesn't mean you SHOULD!

    921:

    Rocketpjs @ 907:

    Where I live all cabling is up in the air because the water table is close to the surface. Quite literally - my lawn never turns brown, even in the deepest of droughts.

    I once worked with a guy who told me about building underground utilities in Miami, FL. Once the manholes & piping were in place they could pump them dry to run cables, but during the construction they worked in diving suits with air pumped in from a compressor ... working depth was like 10 to 15 feet.

    923:

    John S Simple ...
    The Supreme Court of the USA has joined the "Optimates" - that & those who backed Crassus, the time this happened in Rome.
    Or, to put it another way, the Trump "administration" ( Don't laugh! ) deliberately picked Judges who were already aligned with the Optimates.

    924:

    A note on rising temperatures ...

    The interwebbies says it's 88°F (~31°C) around here right now, but the thermometer I put up on my back porch [north wall; out of the sun; in the shade] says 100°F (~38°C).

    I cut the grass out here for the first time today.

    Only did the front where it can be seen from the street because
    1. I've got to go get more lawnmower gas. Have to go to the store that sells NON-ethanol gas for small yard tools & restock. Ethanol gas is Ok for automobiles, but it will ruin a lawnmower engine (and Dog help you if you use it for chainsaw/string trimmer mix) and ...
    2. It IS 100°F out there & I don't want to risk hurting myself since I'm not in great shape for outdoor work after being sedentary for so long.

    I've got more work I need to do out there, but some of it I can do in the evening after it begins to cool down some and the rest I'll do in short increments as I work to gain stamina back.

    I am staying hydrated while I work. All those years of Army training are good for something.

    I've also got plenty of work to do inside here as well ... mainly unpacking & setting stuff up to make room so I can bring more stuff in from storage ... (rinse & repeat ...)

    I've got my computers set up - this one, Photoshop & File Server.

    Now that I've got room, I'm finally going to get to open the box and set up my "NEW" Apple iMac ... just as soon as I find where I put the keyboard & mouse I bought for it.

    I don't like Apple's keyboards & mice, but fortunately there's a company that makes Apple compatible keyboards & mice that I do like.

    Couldn't find the File Server keyboard either. I found an old IBM Keyboard that I put aside several years ago when I thought I had destroyed it by pouring coffee in it (like a whole LARGE cup of coffee which combined with the dust bunnies under the keys to make it a real mess).

    I pulled off all of the keys, cleaned out the galleys & wells and cleaned off the keys themselves & it works almost like new. I love those old IBM keyboards.

    I progress. Some day this new house will finally be my new home.

    925:

    Greg Tingey @ 923:

    John S Simple ...
    The Supreme Court of the USA has joined the "Optimates" - that & those who backed Crassus, the time this happened in Rome.
    Or, to put it another way, the Trump "administration" ( Don't laugh! ) deliberately picked Judges who were already aligned with the Optimates.

    What Trump did was no laughing matter. But in the spirit of technical accuracy, when writing about it you should probably preface "administration" with "MAL" ... The Trump MAL-administration ...

    ... and don't call me simple 😉

    926:

    Hello to this very interesting niche of the internet.

    But, I think the question being asked is definitionally incorrect, given you're all products / organisms emeshed in a Patriarchal web. The question is NOT "so, this passes this test", it's find and name all the stuff that does pass the test that made over a hundred million dollars. So, something that struck me in the discussion from "Finding true love in the cosmos", about telepathy:

    All your metrics for discovery are incorrect. At the very least, terrible (who declares themself a 'True Christian' when the Lions await? And no, I'm not one of those Republicans, nor am I a Papist), they're also totally wrong.

    Three things to think upon:

    If telepaths exist, and you're a new face, it's much akin to the English boarding school environment or say, publishing: there might be a much older, much more aggressive, much more socially networked Mind who shouts: "FUCK OFF, THIS IS MY TURF" when you say hello (they might say it from the front page of the Times under the headline: "Best Author is Silenced and CANCELLED"). (This is both true and not a subtle critique of English society)

    If telepaths exist, and you're a new face, what happens when you discover the ugly secret dungeon they put the ones whose voices they do not like in? It has baked clay walls, there's no sharp angles (all curves) and you get a ball gag free of charge. Oh, and it's ultra-violent, you have to kill to survive. This is both true and a metaphor.

    If telepaths exist, what happens when 90% of them are functionally identical to Daily Mail readers? And they can gang up on you.

    The Bechdel test is fundamentally flawed because who cares if Marvel Heroine A in black spandex talks to Marvel Heroine B in white spandex for 15 minutes in a movie? Not addressing the issue.

    Also, telepathy exists. It's just ruled by some utter cunts you don't ever want to meet at night. The kind who put Osbourne's alleged predilections for dubious sexual experiences on the front page to settle a score (a promise, actually, and marrying someone he wasn't supposed to).

    Better Question: The Bechdel test is something made by slavers to keep slavery going. Fuck that noise.

    927:

    "Minds", u say?

    r u sure u've not passed this way before

    928:

    r u sure u've not passed this way before

    There's definitely a familiar odor about that, yes.

    929:

    I think I may spy a permabanned, or possibly a spammer, or both.

    930:

    It would appear that De saint-Arse is building his own, personal Freikorps
    How far does this have to go before the US Federal government stamps on it?

    @ 927 / 928 / 929 ...
    Yes - I have a horrible suspicion that it's the splattergull, again.

    931:

    Banned but comment left in situ, because it is an interesting point on the original discussion.

    If they start sprouting sockpuppets, more serious banning measures will be rolled out.

    932:

    If they start sprouting sockpuppets

    she/her, istr

    very half-hearted attempt at stealthing, i thought, "Hello to this very interesting niche of the internet", i mean pull the other one

    933:

    she/her, istr

    otoh she does go by "we" so who kno

    934:

    Greg Tingey @ 930:

    It would appear that De saint-Arse is building his own, personal Freikorps
    How far does this have to go before the US Federal government stamps on it?

    I expect it will take a while. Using the FloriDUH National Guard the way outlined in the original Miami Herald article is probably going to draw the attention of the National Guard Bureau.

    If they determine FloriDUH diverted FEDERAL FUNDS appropriated for the National Guard (which seems likely to me based on the news report), FloriDUH will have to pay the Federal Government back and that's not likely to sit well with the state legislature.

    The idea as originally outlined - have some way for people who are unable to be in the military (too young, too old, too unfit) to still be able to contribute to disaster relief - is a reasonable one.

    FloriDUH does have A LOT of disasters (some of them even NATURAL disasters) and sometimes the National Guard is not enough1 - but it seems like most of the reliable people, people who don't have dreams of becoming tin-pot dictators, go ahead and join the National Guard or the regular military.

    Note the complaints that originated the story came from people who have already served and knew this was wrong. I expect the U.S. Department of Justice is already investigating to determine if any Federal laws are being violated.

    1 ... or are not available as happened to Louisiana after Katrina, because their National Guard was on deployment in Iraq. But there are also inter-state compacts to draw on ...

    North Carolina doesn't have any heavy lift helicopters (CH-47), but Georgia does. After Hurricane Floyd, Georgia "loaned" their helicopter unit to North Carolina during the recovery effort.

    And North Carolina has sent help to other states in return.

    935:

    Getting back to the original topic, one thing that's been bugging me is the juxtaposition between equality arguments such as the Bechdel test, and uniformity of gender roles.

    The reason for this is that I read Langton and Cole's First Knowledges Law: The Way of the Ancestors at the same time as this topic came up. The First Knowledges series accompanies a major Australian exhibition on aboriginal culture, and (IMO) it's an interesting and revisionist take on the way aboriginal cultures perhaps should be seen by mainstream Aussie culture.

    Anyway, Law makes the case for separate and equal actually working. Work, tools, religion, even weapons are often gendered in Aboriginal cultures, but this is (per the book!) not necessarily a sign of women being inferior. Men have sacred spaces women stay out of, women have sacred spaces men stay out of, etc. etc...and the work of ALL genders (including other-than-binary) is seen as essential for the functioning of these societies. In my interpretation of the argument, it draws on the idea of a heterarchical system of government (remember, we're talking thousands of people, not millions), where essential responsibilities are widely parceled out so that no one group (family, gender, whatever) can grab power over all others.

    Now to me, and perhaps to most of you, the idea of "separate but equal" is a huge red flag, given Anglophone cultural inequalities related to gender, race, and wealth. So I was left wondering, as I read this book, whether the authors were spinning the evidence--things are gendered, but genders aren't equal--and to what degree my cultural biases were making me doubt what they were writing.

    Does a story passing a Bechdel test necessarily mean that all the characters can play all the roles, at least in theory? Or is it possible to have a passing story with more rigid gender roles that are all nonetheless equal in whatever ways matter for the story? And how about real life? Is separate but equal always anything more than a dog-whistle for hiding inequality?

    936:

    The question I would ask is: what about people who are not interested in those aspects usually associated with the other gender? As an example, when my son was in primary school, one of the boys there was not interested in sport at all, wanted only to do the arts and crafts usually associated with the girls. What happens to him in that society? Is he demeaned in any way because of his interests and abilities? On the other side, I have known women who wanted to be car mechanics or helicopter pilots, who never got a chance to do so because of their gender. What happens to women with those interests in such a society? The truly 'separate but equal' society would have a useful way to not only accommodate those with different interests to the gender majority, but also make them feel like a valued part of the society in the same way as everyone else is.

    And no, current Western society does not meet that bar.

    937:

    In the unlikely event that anyone is still following the thread I started at #340, about Gravitational Wave Detections, some apologies/explanations and a tentative conclusion.

    First, it was me trying to work out what was going on, I wasn't quoting any research papers.

    Obviously, it wasn't an alien space craft.

    But what it is, I think, is a core collapse supernova. And I think this is what is happening due to the frequency of the waveform. As understood at the moment, a core collapse creates a neutron star, which might (but probably doesn't) progress to a black hole.

    The fastest rotating observed neutron star is PSR J0952-0607, which spins at 707Hz, which just happens to be about the frequency of these burst detections. In theory we might see such spins up to about 1500Hz, but the physics indicates that the surface would then be travelling at about half the speed of light, so fast spins probably don't happen too often in practice.

    The proof will eventually be multi-messenger detections involving neutrinos and light as well as gravitational waves for something in the local group of galaxies. But that will be a once every fifty years event.

    938:

    Is separate but equal always anything more than a dog-whistle for hiding inequality?

    i thought in hunter-gatherer societies (if that's what we're discussing) it was difficult to carry enough stuff for inequality ever to become a huge problem

    939:
    I do, actually have an old-fashioned brass-knob-that you-pull doorbell! Which, needless to say confuses some idiots, who try to PUSH IT

    Your doorbell and luck are similar then.

    Neither works when you push it....

    940:

    From my limited understanding, at least in regard to Arnhem Land, it's more matriarchal -- the elder women make the decisions and their brothers make things happen. One of our Aboriginal Liaison Officers once said to me:"A man without land or a woman is nothing"; the women are responsible for the land and sons belong to their mother's country, not their father's.

    941:

    Disclaimers apply: I am not an expert on Indigenous culture and am only really familiar with that in the Top End and Central Australia. This is my 2c worth.

    There's women's business and there's men's business -- women planted and gathered, men hunted. Women are responsible for the children, but by the time they're toddlers they were pretty much expected to be reasonably self-sufficient -- nomadic people in harsh country don't have the time to coddle children. Initiated men have great freedom within the limits of the Law, but are still bound by the Law and culture.

    There has been a role in at least some cultures for gender diverse people; sistergirls have a feminine role in the community and brotherboys have a masculine role, although I don't know that they can be initiated.

    942:

    Possessions and wealth are only one form of equality. Who can do what to whom and for what reasons? Sexual equality (who decides who you have sex with and why?). Access to food, freedom from violence. The list goes on.

    943:

    There's a whole lot of complexity added by colonialism too. For starters, no aboriginal person is free from violence, that's not how Australian law works. And it's hard to sit in judement on a set of cultures that have been deliberately broken. Plus there's the "appeals to people who want to destroy it" salacious reporting that affects what we see of it in the media... you wouldn't condemn the whole UK as a drug-fuelled violent rapey hellhole based on observing their parliament, would you?

    But my experience is very slight compared to Dramlin's, so I'll just say that it is a context switch thing for me. "separate but equal" feels like a very white concept and I associate it with the famous "no blacks, jews or dogs" signs and similar things. Woman's business/men's business feels more like "men don't go to the gynecologist" type of separation. But it's also... I don't do secret men's business either, because I'm not initiated in a group that does that. Kind of like me not attending the local shul or mosque...

    So while I might have opinions about the local mosque having signs with arrows saying "men enter this side, women enter that side"... it's not my circus, not my monkeys.

    944:

    Nope. A valid proof would be one that did not depend on assuming the theory you are trying to prove in order to interpret the evidence (*). General relativity did not have any such proof until the 1960s, and still has none for high space-time curvatures (such as this). Nor has most of the rest of modern physics and cosmology.

    I find it hypocritical the way that most scientists (and physicists are the worst) demand that level of proof for any theory that does not match dogma, but treat evidence of consistency as a proof for anything that matches dogma. And the way that physicists damn the 'soft' sciences (and sometimes even biomedicine) for lacking rigour.

    (*) That excludes the other form of proof: demonstrating that no other theory can match the observation. That was done for the inverse square law of gravitation and special relativity.

    945:

    And I expect that the Supreme Court will back Florida's right to have such a corps, though not to use federal moey to run it.

    946:

    We bought up our children, one boy and one girl, as identically as we could. They are now in their forties. My daughter was always interested in making things and sport. In infants school her teacher complained to us that she refused to play in the play house and wanted to make things with a construction set (like giant plastic Meccano). She worked with a boy and he was often complimented on projects she had designed. At the age of nine, in primary school, she campaigned to be allowed to play football instead of doing country dancing. Eventually she was allowed to play as long as there was another girl on the opposing team. At secondary school she was in the girls five-a-side football team. She was the only heterosexual on the team. She now has a degree in civil engineering and runs her own company dealing with confined space safety and rescue. My son was never interested in sport. In infants school he once said to us. You can still be liked if you’re not good at football. He was always interested in biology which is still a “girls’” subject. And is now a marine biologist running benthic ecological surveys. Attitudes to gender roles depend on parents and teachers as well as society.

    947:
    I am increasingly of the opinion that Just Stop Oil is a black operation funded by Shell, BP, and Esso

    Who funds Just Stop Oil (in a fairly hands-off way, IIRC) is so well known she's written an op-ed about it: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/22/just-stop-oil-van-gogh-national-gallery-aileen-getty

    948:

    To me, the Bechdel test is an example of what the best writers do consciously: think about what they want to achieve in their story, and then figure out how to do it. If you want to write something that reflects modern society or likely future society, you need to spend a few moments thinking about gender and how to integrate it with your story.

    949:

    Maybe I shouldn't have used the word "proof".

    Having worked across multiple disciplines in the final decade of my career, each academic discipline has its own publication procedures and standards.

    In short, what constitutes "proof" is sociologically determined by the academic discipline under discussion. Even in mathematics -- my original discipline -- "proof" is typically used to mean "persuasive argument" rather than giving a guarantee that the result is correct.

    So, back to physics. Would you agree: that a properly worked out model of core collapse supernovas, predicting the details of gravitational wave generation, neutrino generation and combined with matching observations would not garner a Nobel prize for the discoverers?

    However, if I remember correctly, you do not believe in neutrinos. Is that right? Because if that is the case then despite the fact that you may actually be right, now is not the sociologically correct moment to announce that fact. I'd advise withholding that datum until a suitable moment of crisis in physics actually occurs. At that point the community might be more receptive.

    Just don't get me started on what constitutes "proof" in academic history or economics!

    950:

    Yes, I was nitpicking, and this is NOT an attack on you, but I am very bored with the way cosmology dresses up extreme (and often outrageous) speculation as physical fact, and claims that incredibly indirect and potentially ambiguous measurements constitute proof.

    "Even in mathematics -- my original discipline -- "proof" is typically used to mean "persuasive argument" rather than giving a guarantee that the result is correct."

    I don't know where that occurs, but it's absolutely not true for the sort of mathematics I was familiar with. Admittedly, I haven't been active in some decades, but I am damn certain that it hasn't changed. If you mean the sloppier kinds of applied mathematics, you are correct, but us (and, yes, I was one) pure mathematicians and mathematical statisticians don't regard that as proper mathematics.

    I agree with you about the Nobel prize, but that proves little.

    I have never said that I don't believe in neutrinos, though I have said that the claims they are actual objects (rather than, say, 'field effects') are weak. While they are not as completely a finagle factor as dark matter, they definitely were created as one, and subsequent experiment hasn't demonstrated they are anything more than that.

    I am prepared to be corrected, if anyone has done a plausibly direct measurement of their mass or speed! I shall not hold my breath :-)

    951:

    I am very bored with the way cosmology dresses up extreme (and often outrageous) speculation as physical fact

    The last cosmologist I talked to was very clear that their theories were just that: tested models that explained observed evidence, not the last word.

    It is entirely possible that dark matter is like phlogiston — a rational explanation that upon further evidence turns out not to be valid. I'm not certain how you'd figure that out, but then there's a lot about modern physics that I don't understand. Quarks, for example. I only studied classical physics at school, and quarks still blow my brain.

    https://c01.purpledshub.com/bbcsciencefocus/2022/12/22/dr-katie-mack-we-still-have-a-lot-to-learn-about-the-proton/

    952:

    Rbt Prior & EC
    ISTM that "Dark Matter/energy" are, quite clearly, placeholders.
    A useful word/phrase for unexplained phnomena that we quite frankly, haven't got a handle on to.
    As for Neutrinoes, I'm not so sure: If they are a field effect, then how is that manifesting itself & they are a field of ... what, precisely?
    They certainly make all the equations of particle-exchanges balance neatly, though. I was under the impression that the rest mass od neutrinoes was fairly tightly constrained, to quite a low figure.
    Am I wrong &/or out-of-date on this?

    953:

    We've discussed the ethics of AI before:

    Volkswagen used AI "Deep Fake" technology for a commercial, resurrecting deceased Brazilian singer Elis Regina for a duet with her daughter.

    Apparently using a body double & facial recognition software?

    Politics are also involved.

    954:

    Re neutrinos: my point wasn't that they don't make the model fit, nor that there is an alternative theory in the wings, but we have virtually no evidence that they are actually a particle. As far as I know, the only evidence is that they produce Cherenkov radiation, and we don't know of anything else that does that. But could there be some other type of entity other than object or wave?

    As far as I know, whether neutrinos have mass at all is still an open question, though current theory requires it (sic). Previous theory predicted they were massless. But I am no expert, and can't always tell the what is actually known from plausible bullshit.

    955:

    a) to quote an astrophysicist of my acquaintance, "'Dark Matter' is not an explanation. It's not meant to be an explanation. It's a shorthand way of referring to a particular problem with our current model that we need to find an explanation for."

    b) as someone who did quite a lot of quantum physics, albiet over 25 years ago now, I'm not sure you can have a field without an associated particle. Of the four basic field interactions, the only one we haven't positively identified the particle for is gravity, and given how hard it is to study gravity waves (especially over a period not measured in centuries), that one probably just needs some more time.

    And even farm fields have onions, after all.

    956:

    Elderly Cynic @ 945:

    And I expect that the Supreme Court will back Florida's right to have such a corps, though not to use federal moey to run it.

    Could be, but I don't think it will get as far as the Supreme Court. I predict the scheme will fall apart (as it already appears to be doing) when the Feds start clawing back the misspent funds.

    957:

    a) Regrettably, that doesn't stop it being touted as having existence and, worse, people building theories on top of it.

    To Robert Prior: my objections are not what the better ones believe, but the above issues. I can assure you that there are plenty of them who DO believe such things as the existence of black holes (i.e. with a non-null event horizon) has been proven. Even the Big Bang theory is open to doubt.

    The whole tower of speculation is ridiculous, and the standards of testing quite appalling. Every time they discover a new discrepancy, they invent a new finagle factor or complicate an existing one to cover it. That helps neither to advance science nor to encourage the public to believe in it.

    b) I shouldn't have used that term - yes, I know that result. But is current quantum mechanics the last word? Also, the question of whether gravity behaves like electromagnetism etc. is rather up in the air.

    958:

    Robert Prior @ 951:

    It is entirely possible that dark matter is like phlogiston ...

    We learned a song about that in Music Class when I was in elementary school ... "Phlogiston Sweet Afton".

    959:

    Oddly enough, Quanta Magazine recently published an interview with Robert Oppenheim ( https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-physicist-who-bets-that-gravity-cant-be-quantized-20230710/ ). His lab is fiddling with models where gravity isn't quantized. Instead, it has a random component to it that makes it compatible with quantum mechanics.

    In my non-physicist way, I might kind of get what he may be thinking. If gravity is just warp-ripples in space-time, then there's no lower limit on the size of gravity waves. Thus, trying to measure inter-particle gravity on an atomic scale where gravitons would theoretically be detectable would be impossible, due to background random noise that couldn't be canceled out. It's a different kind of uncertainty, but it (apparently) would lead to results seen. THIS IS MY INTERPRETATION, NOT WHAT HE'S ACTUALLY SAYING.

    Anyway, fun read and substantially simpler than saying that figuring out octonion math will make sense of it all.

    QM's got good theoretical physics granola: all the fruits, nuts, and flakes getting chances to talk about their work. Their models all disagree with each other, but so what? It's a great source for SFF worldbuilders: pick your model and make your story universe.

    960:

    QM's got good theoretical physics granola: all the fruits, nuts, and flakes getting chances to talk about their work.

    I heard a harangue by one of them last week. Apparently Lee Smolin has been stealing his ideas. He has proof, or would have if his interview on CBC hadn't mysteriously been taken down from the website, and CBC is now denying its existence. (I decided not to provoke him by asking whether the Wayback Machine was also in on the conspiracy.)

    961:

    Rbt Prior / EC / self
    Reading that short article on the Proton ... one phrase leapt out at me: - And the measurements are already incredibly precise. - maybe, but are they bloody ACCURATE?

    Also: Experiments have shown that protons can sometimes be observed containing charm quarks, which is particularly surprising, since charm quarks are more massive than protons are. - which should tell you, straight off, that something is worng.

    EC
    But could there be some other type of entity other than object or wave? - BOTH unfortunately.
    I thought L V de Broglie long since showed that things can be both - & having, many years ago "flown" an electron microscope, you are going to have great difficulty persuading me otherwise ....
    Even the Big Bang theory is open to doubt. - REALLY?
    What's your explanation for the Cosmic Background Radiation, then?

    I think your cyincism has spread too far, to the point that you are questioning things which, if not certain, are pretty solid ...
    But, at the same time, as I have also commented in the past, it's clear that something, somewhere is missing in action / lost / horribly misunderstood or even plain wrong.

    Um.

    962:

    To start, I had a lot of trouble parsing what the poster is saying. One thing I did get out of it, and I strongly disagree with, was that if we're all "caught" in the "patriarchal web", then we have no way out, and cannot make measurements to consider it.

    Horse hocky.

    The immediate implication is "there's no way out, give up." And then do what, exactly?

    That reminds me of a discussion on File 770 recently, where in response to a story, I noted that all the major Hugos the last few years were won by women. Snarky responses to me were "well, women are writing the best ficiton". I had a response to that, but that's not like this blog, and so people probably never saw it - that's saying, oh, P. Djelli Clark and Donal Epkepi aren't brilliant authors (let's see, both black, one African, but that's not 'diverse' enough?)

    It also effectively says to me, personally, "go away, no one will read what you write, no matter how good or what it has to say that's important, because you're male."

    Bias doesn't work well any way.

    963:

    No, it doesn't. My late wife spoke of how, once she got to be a teenager (and presumably stared looking like a girl), her father would yell at her if she was helping him working on the car, if, say, she brought the wrong tool. And then there was '88, when we were looking for a new-to-us used car, and at this one dealership, we told the salesman she was looking for a car, and he kept turning to me, ignoring her. After several times of this, we walked out, she stopping in the office to complain.

    All we can do is what we can do. My kids - my son can cook (well), and one daughter is playing with woodworking (and doing it well). (Of course, this is the one who's day job is programmer/tester, and is working at being a writer, and is on all social media in support of that, and... (why, yes, that is her picture in the dictionary, next to the definition of "overcommitted").

    964:

    Nu, and we've never seen any "western" culture like that, yes, bubby?

    965:

    The problem I have with that view of gravity is this: if a field is mediated by particles, what are the particles of gravity floating around in? It seems to be that pushes the "but what is it in" down another dimension, rather than accepting that spacetime is like Jello, and any "particles" mediating gravity are simply waves in the field.

    966:

    Why should I have an alternative explanation? You are using EXACTLY the same argument as many mediaeval theologians used for the existence of God: if He does not exist, who created the universe?

    And why is it improper to question things that are solid? I said that I didn't believe in their claimed PROOFS, not that I necessarily disagree with their beliefs. In most cases, they are probably on the right track, if not actually right. But who am I to know?

    But, since you ask for an alternative explanation of the cosmic background radiation, here is one that I have posted before. No, I don't believe it, but it's a good way to make physicists splutter :-)

    The red shift is not actually due to recession, but to energy being absorbed from light by interaction with the virtual particles created by the vacuum or whatever (*). This is then reradiated as the cosmic background radiation.

    (*) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmological_constant_problem

    967:

    I agree. Gratuitously obscurantist. The one point I thought was both sane and relevant was the question "How many such films have made more than a million dollars"? Well, I have seen claims that the majority of filmgoers are women, I can witness that many of them are (for example) James Bond film fans, and you don't get much more sexist than that.

    The elephant in the room is that most people (especially girls) are brought up mainly by women, and attitudes are normally learnt from those around us in our early years. Blaming men for their sexist attitudes is a little biassed!

    I failed to persuade either of my daughters to learn how to maintain repair their own bicycles. One went on to get a good degree in engineering, but their explanation (as adults) was "It was much easier to get you to do it, Daddy." Nothing sexist - merely lazy :-)

    968:

    Normally, I would say that I would like to see the mathematics, but I doubt that I am up to analysing it any more, if I ever was. But I agree with you that insisting both that gravity is both simply an artifact of curved space and that it is carried by particles that travel though space sounds a trifle circular.

    969:

    All of my kids - that's three girls and a son - I foreced to read "How to Keep Your Volkswagen Alive: A Manual of Step-by-Step Procedures for the Compleat Idiot". They were not going to be taken by a crook.

    970:

    Oh, here we go, back to the original subject: how about a test of "are you writing actual human beings in the real world?"

    For example, in several stories, I actually refer to characters going to the head (in a starship). Ellen's response when I mentioned that, "What, you mean people do things other than eat and take showers?"

    Then - laws of physics here - I had to ask her last night for an opinion: I have a character pick up a teenager who's almost unconscious from the pain of a nasty very broken arm. Note that she has medcytes, genengineered cells in the bloodstream, and has a lot more control than we do. So, asking an expert (Ellen being a woman) if I should mention that the character, though her breasts aren't that big, should tighten her chest muscles to keep from bouncing, so she can run at her full speed (just over 30kph), and Ellen's response was absolutely.

    So, things to consider in writing....

    971:

    Thanks for the Quanta link.

    972:

    I know I have your email, but don't remember what it is. I'd like to talk to you a bit more deeply on gravity, etc. whitroth(at)5(dash)cent.us

    973:

    Identificatiopn sent. I have changed Email, though the old one still works. Be warned that I don't actually know very much about gravity etc., though I have chased up a few aspects.

    974:

    Security. We have heard of that. How do you play it?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-66226873

    975:

    Totally off the subject: it's official, my book 11,000 Years has been republished, and it's on Big River....

    976:

    Haven't seen anything yet.

    977:

    I was replying to a comment on a comment about Indigenous culture, providing more information abut that culture. I'm pretty sure that other people have developed cultures with similar features (we are all people after all), also pretty sure just about everything has been tried somewhere along the way, with varying levels of success. It is however particularly interesting to me that there are cultures that have a role/s for non-cis non-heterosexual people, unlike my own.

    Indigenous culture is a very different culture to the one I grew up in, and I believe it would have kept working and growing if whitefellas hadn't turned up and done their best to destroy it. It has, as we know, survived for quite some time. It's still broken now but even despite the missing generation/s still there. The songs "Broken Song" and "Cleverman" in particular by Neil Murray are good stories about different cultures and what can happen when they meet.

    978:

    I would imagine Peter Aschwanden's art made it more palatable to young people.

    979:

    News updates ....
    Even this misgovernment are prepared to spend money on nuclear power!
    And about time.
    Meanwhile, referring back to sexism as regards girls & boys, the government of Victoria State has struck a blow for sanity &* decided that the "Commonwealth Games" are a total waste of money.
    Would that we had done that before 2012!

    980:

    But, since you ask for an alternative explanation of the cosmic background radiation, here is one that I have posted before. No, I don't believe it, but it's a good way to make physicists splutter :-)

    The red shift is not actually due to recession, but to energy being absorbed from light by interaction with the virtual particles created by the vacuum or whatever (*). This is then reradiated as the cosmic background radiation.

    That's the "tired light" hypothesis. Effectively abandoned somewhere before WW2, though it's occasionally popped up since then. The "splutter" is probably caused by "oh, no, not this falsified idea again?".

    981:

    Well, sort of. The real reason is that the 'falsification' was no more solid than most of the other speculations. The basic problem here being the same as the black hole one: the scale of the red shift does not overlap with anything we can directly measure. My point isn't that it's a particularly plausible idea, but that neither its falsification and the proofs I am railing against are actually solid. I am sorry, but I refuse to believe in either proof or disproof by acclamation, despite its common use.

    Of course, if you know of a SOLID falsification, I am always happy to be enlightened :-)

    982:

    I have sent it again. I use yahoo, and some mail agents (mainly Microsoft, natch) have a tendency to put my messages in the spam/junk folder. If that fails, I will doxx myself, as the reason for anonymity has passed and I maintain it more out of habit than need.

    983:

    Sorry, I think my humor passed you. I was referring to the fact that in Judaism, lineage is matrilinial. So, if your mother is Jewish, you're Jewish.

    984:

    Maybe not quite as "cosmic" as the problem of where the background radiation comes from, but ...

    Trump says he’s a target of criminal probe into 2020 election [CNN on YouTube]

    The "target letter" is something that usually comes right at the end of an investigation, inviting the "target" to appear before the grand jury to give his side of the case under oath ... it's voluntary. Trump didn't appear before the grand jury when he received a target letter in the documents case.

    The CASE for prosecuting Trump for trying to overturn the 2020 election & stay in power after he lost:

    Trump on Trial: A Model Prosecution Memo for Federal Election Interference Crimes Second Edition

    PDF file, 250+ pages, but the introduction & Executive Summary is only 12 pages. This is similar to the model "pros memo" the same authors published regarding possible charges that could be brought against Trump in the classified documents case.

    "This model prosecution memorandum (or “pros memo”) assesses federal charges Special Counsel Jack Smith may bring against former President Donald Trump for alleged criminal interference in the 2020 election. The authors have decades of experience as federal prosecutors, criminal defense lawyers, and other legal expertise. We conclude that the evidence likely now meets Department of Justice standards to commence a prosecution. We base that conclusion upon a stream of recent disclosures in court filings and in the press that have come on top of the findings of the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol (the "Select Committee")"

    The DoJ will be doing a similar memo internally to determine whether they can meet the “evidence sufficient to obtain and sustain a conviction.” threshold required by DoJ Principles of Federal Prosecution, but THAT internal memo will not be made public because it will contain Grand Jury proceedings.

    This model memo relies on public sources.

    985:

    Ahh, when I checked to see which comment you were replying to both my comments showed up and it looked as though you'd replied to the second comment, not the first. There are definitely more matriarchal societies than this, and there were more in the past; the fact that this one has lasted so long leads me to conclude it's a winning proposition. It would be interesting to know what prompts societies to be matriarchal or patriarchal. I have in my mind that societies have changed from matriarchal but am not aware of any that changed to matriarchal. But that could just be my lack of knowledge of same.

    986:

    One reported swing towards matriarchy supposedly was in some African American communities, where welfare law gave more money to unwed mothers than to couples with children. Hence, it reportedly made sense for families to be mother-centric.

    You can also dive down the whole rabbit hole of "matristic" vs. matriarchal. The latter is about the gender of the people at the top of the hierarchy, the former is women-centered but less hierarchical (grandmas know what's going on, in other words). There's also matrilineal, which is about how property, especially land, is inherited.

    There is some literature one why matrilineality occurs, and it often makes sense. MatriARCHY is rare, but matristic and matrilineal cultures are not. The African-American experience above is basically matristic, not matriarchal.

    987:

    RE: Cosmological silliness, part duh.

    The idea of a universe in the holy trinity is general relativity, quantum mechanics, and randomness--my primitive understanding of Jonathan Oppenheim's work, where gravity is not quantized--is kind of appealing. No new particles, just the lack of tyranny in a state of confusion, as the good book has it, substituting tyranny for universal information conservation and confusion for randomness.

    Anyway, as I was driving home today, a Thought struck me. Left a mark, too. So when I got home, I googled a bit, and it turns out that general relativity allows gravity waves to produce gravitational solitons. It also turns out that I'm not the first person to wonder if the fabled Dark Matter is just lots and lots of gravitational solitons.

    So that's an idea. If there is such a thing as a smooth gravitational soliton (basically a stable, long-lasting, single wave in space-time) detecting one will be an effing nuisance, even if there a huge numbers of them out there.

    It's an easy explanation, but one that will make a lot of cosmologists very sad and not worthy of grants. And since they're nice people who have families and labs to support, we can't have that. Oh well.

    988:

    There's definitely a familiar odor about that, yes.

    Especially the word "cunts"

    989:

    If we exclude the tired light hypothesis, which is useful mainly to point out how much of cosmology is built on unproven hypotheses, my favourite one is this very plausible scenario. But first, a little background.

    Special relativity is absolutely solid, not least because the Lorentz transformations are the unique solution to the problem of speed invariance in a Euclidean metric. Yes, before Einstein.

    The principles of general relativity (i.e. mass-energy equivalence and that it is best viewed as space-time distortion, not a force) are solid, too, though they became dogma half a century before the first valid evidence (in the 1960s).

    But (effectively) the gravitational term is of the form 1/(1-R/r), where R is the Schwarzschild radius, and we have no reasonably direct evidence except for large r. Specifically, large enough that we cannot distinguish that function from exp(R/r).

    Now, if the latter were the case, event horizons would evaporate and, even for a black hole, there would be only a point singularity. So, the whole field of black hole diving would disappear up its own, er, whatever.

    990:

    Totally unrelated: Ilya - IIRC, you're Finnish. My partner's looking for recommendations for online Finnish stores that sell her addiction: black Finnish liquorish.

    992:

    Sorry, but you remember wrong. I am Russian Jew by birth, naturalized American. The closest thing I have to Finland is some Lapp ancestry on my maternal grandfather's side.

    993:

    Oh, well, I guess that Finnishes that....

    994:

    Oh, well, I guess that Finnishes that....

    Will this help?

    https://www.touchoffinland.com/collections/finnish-licorice

    995:

    Now, if the latter were the case, event horizons would evaporate and, even for a black hole, there would be only a point singularity. So, the whole field of black hole diving would disappear up its own, er, whatever.

    Then what happens to the naked singularity?

    996:

    "Then what happens to the naked singularity?"

    My personal opinion, FWIW, is that singularities are nature's way of telling you your theory is broken. To explain what is actually going on in this case, you need quantum gravity, and my understanding is that we are still nowhere near a coherent theory of quantum gravity.

    JHomes.

    997:

    i think it's mirko ur thinking of

    998:

    Huh, hadn't heard the term matristic and it might be a better fit for the Indigenous societies that I'm familiar with. An example: when the Intervention (let's not go there) was happening in the Northern Territory one of the things that was banned from remote communities was pornography. Who had the most pornography? Grandmothers. Makes sense when you consider that traditionally grandmothers raised the children.

    I have always thought that main drive behind matrilineal groups was that, especially in smaller groups, you always know who the mother is but...

    1000:

    Yes, precisely. Those of us who remember our basic schooling will remember that we were taught to NEVER extrapolate through a singularity. When I did my mathematics degree, I learnt a bit more, and that (roughly) became never extrapolate through an essential singularity, because there is no reason to believe that the function has a compatible formula on the other side, but a few forms of singularity were more tractable.

    The term 'naked singularity' and the claim that singularities are OK if shielded by an event horizon are bullshit that expresses the above rule in ridiculous terms. Here is an attempt to explain what is going on.

    The exp(R/r) form creates a pole, which is a well-behaved form of singularity. I.e. the singularity exists solely at a point, and space in the nighbourhood (excluding it) is well-behaved. If you actually REACH that point, you go "BOOM", of course, but the usual singularity properties mean that you can't.

    What event horizons are is an attempt to describe that the 1/(1-R/r) form creates a region whose surface behaves like a pole, with the region inside not being part of normal space-time. Just like a simple pole, if you actually REACH that surface, you go "BOOM".

    The term "naked singularity" is meant to mean a singularity that you can actually reach. Well, in BOTH cases, the time dilation effect means that you can't - though external observers may see you appear to do so. Sorry, but don't blame me for that :-)

    1001:

    I seem to recall reading about some relatively recent speculative astrophysics around black holes: it's now clear from observational astronomy that things of size approximately equal to their Schwartzchild radius exist, but there are alternate models that don't produce a singularity if some variant versions of quantum mechanics or string theory hold true. One option is ultradense quark matter that produces heavy objects denser than neutron stars that still have a degeneracy pressure to resist further collapse; another has the collapse arrested at the Schwartzchild radius, due to some sort of phase-change in spacetime that whizzed past my brain. So if you drop something onto such a hypothetical object it hits the surface and gets added to it (spread very thin and crushed into something not at all like matter or energy, with only its mass and charge detectable in the wider universe).

    1002:

    My tea-starved brain is wondering whether Christian Nationalists are opposed to naked singularities on moral grounds (what if the children saw one!?!), and how soon some Florida parent is going to demand an astronomy text be censored…

    This is definitely going to be a two cup morning :-/

    1003:

    Yes, very much so. There are lots of such theories; I merely gave one of the simler to explain. My explanation wasn't actually complete, as I ignored rotation, but that definitely gets abstruse.

    1004:

    Well, if spacetime is quantized, AFAIK that means there's a minimum, non-zero unit of spacetime. The quantum boffins also seem adamant, although I don't know why, both that information is conserved, and that there's a maximum amount of information that can be fit into a given space. In my primitive understanding, black holes have been observed to exist, so the idea that one can cram an arbitrarily huge amount of information into a zero space AND in theory get it all back as the thing evaporates has to be wrong in some way. Unfortunately, the same holds true if it's an infinity of information merely packed into the lowest possible non-zero quantum of spacetime.

    This is why I kind of like the idea that spacetime isn't quantized. So far as I can tell, this has three benefits (one pointed out by Oppenheim): In black hole terms, there is no minimum spacetime size or maximum information holding capacity: non-quantized spacetime can warp without breaking right to the singularity. Second, as Oppenheim points out, we've basically got this theory already, and his lab's joined relativity and quantum mechanics using randomness to fill in the gaps. Since theories are successively improved approximations of reality, this counts as a useful next step. A third advantage is that it doesn't require a bestiary of new particles, forces, or objects, which with the exception of dark matter seems to fit what we're seeing*.

    And if dark matter happens to be gravitational solitons (NOT something Oppenheim is saying, this idea came out of one of my orifices), then we're probably seeing them already as part of the raw data coming out of the LIGO detectors.

    Some of the biggest problems with this notion are ideological. A big one is that some type of random noise would have to be inherent in spacetime. Personally, I was trained in a field that works with low-quality, noisy data, so the idea of noisy reality doesn't bother me. However, it does purportedly bother many in the QM crowd, who demand high precision and (per Oppenheim) may feel that reality is secretly deterministic. I'm sure there are other problems, but because I'm not an initiate and don't speak that kind of math, I have no idea what those are.

    *Dark energy seems to keep emerging as a consequence of various theories, if you believe the reporting. While it would be fun to have a field and particle associated with dark energy, it may just be a consequence of the nature of spacetime. Reality basically wants to go sproing, as it were.

    1005:

    My point is that black holes have NOT been observed to exist. What has been observed are effects that can be generated only by black holes, but ONLY IF you make the assumption that the standard GR formulae hold up to and including the singularity. So the 'proof' depends on assuming the theory you are claiming to prove.

    I suggest ignoring all claims of how gravity and quantum theory interact in the region of a black hole. To describe that as imaginative speculation is an understatement.

    Dark energy is the modern equivalent of fairies at the bottom of the garden. Your theory is as good as anyone's - thank you for promoting it!

    Many (probably most) physicists have an appalling understanding of probability, and often translate that into an abhorrence of it. The classic example is that Einstein said "He (God) does not play dice", but any decent mathematician will tell you that measures are as good a field (in the mathematical sense) as real numbers. They aren't even much harder to work with :-)

    I once had to advise graduates and staff on statistics and numerical areas, and the most bone-headed ones were mostly physicists. Delusions of accuracy, delusions of predictability/repeatability (i.e. non-randomness), and worse - EVEN when their own measurements told them exactly the opposite! Of course, that wasn't true of the best ones.

    1006:

    H
    Well, if spacetime is quantized, AFAIK that means there's a minimum, non-zero unit of spacetime ... but I thought there was a minimum quantized unit of "time" anyway?
    Approx. 247 * 10-20 seconds ???
    Alternatively, the Chronon - which is different, of course.

    Or even the Planck Time 5.39 * 10 -44 seconds ...
    Take your pick?

    1007:

    Hello EC, I think you may have some mis-recollections about how GR works in the neighborhood of a black hole. The singularity of the Schwarzschild metric at the event horizon (r=R) is only apparent, not real. (In somewhat the same way spherical polar coordinates have an apparent singularity at the poles, but the surface is perfectly well-behaved and it is possible to make a new coordinate system that goes right through the pole with no problems.)

    What event horizons are is an attempt to describe that the 1/(1-R/r) form creates a region whose surface behaves like a pole, with the region inside not being part of normal space-time. Just like a simple pole, if you actually REACH that surface, you go "BOOM".

    The tidal forces felt by an explorer crossing the horizon turn out to be finite, and indeed can be quite small if the mass of the hole is sufficiently large. To quote Gravitation by Misner, Thorne, and Wheeler (section 31.2, p. 822 in the edition I have here as I write this):

    "... none of the components [of the Riemann tidal tenor] in the explorer's orthornormal frame become infinite at the gravitational radius. The tidal forces the traveler feels as he approaches r=2M [NB the text is using units where G=c=1] are finite; they do not tear him apart.."

    [NB this section goes through the math in detail that shows this. Succeeding sections (31.4--31.6) of the chapter give details of several coordinate systems that are well-behaved at the event horizon (Novikov, Kruskal-Szkeres, Eddington-Finkelstein, etc.]

    There is indeed a "real" singularity at the center of the black hole (r=0). That is what the fuss is about-- in GR, quantities become infinite there, and one speculation is that somehow a quantum theory of gravity will avoid this.

    The term "naked singularity" is meant to mean a singularity that you can actually reach. Well, in BOTH cases, the time dilation effect means that you can't - though external observers may see you appear to do so. Sorry, but don't blame me for that :-)

    I think this is backwards-- the observer reaches the event horizon and indeed the singularity (or whatever is there) in finite proper time, that is the time experienced by the infalling traveller, which turns out to be pi x GM/c^3 ~ 1.54E-5 (M/M_sun) seconds to go from the event horizon to the singularity at r=0. Time dilation affects the time for the explorer to reach the event horizon from outside, as seen by external observers, and is infinite (and photons coming from the explorer are red-shifted to infinite wavelength and zero energy).

    NB I am only describing the mathematical behavior here of GR, in particular the Schawarzschild metric, not necessarily endorsing its physical applicability. (Although I personally do think GR is actually correct.)

    1008:

    Arg, "Riemann tidal tenor" s/b "Riemann tidal tensor"

    1009:

    While tidal tenors sound wonderfully operatic--do their arias last for eternity?-- I'm still trying to get my head around the Schwarzchild Radius and associated event horizon. I thought the point of said horizon was that nothing can escape it. So...what happens beyond is theoretical, not observable? I'm also not sure how virtual particle pairs can cause a black hole to evaporate, if the only place a particle can escape to is inside the event horizon. Any help? Thanks.

    1010:

    Robert Prior @ 1002:

    My tea-starved brain is wondering whether Christian Nationalists are opposed to naked singularities on moral grounds (what if the children saw one!?!), and how soon some Florida parent is going to demand an astronomy text be censored…

    This is definitely going to be a two cup morning :-/

    I had a flash of some stellar "grandparent" fussing at a naked singularity, "Put some clothes on child, before you catch your death of cold!"

    1011:

    Apropos of nothing recent:

    OPPENHEIMER & other IMAX movies' projection controlled by emulated Palm https://slashdot.org/story/416976

    1012:

    Very likely. This was never my area, and it's a long time ago. But we are meaning something different by 'singularity'. The event horizon, as seen by an outside observer, does behave very much like a pole, which is what I meant by that reference.

    "I think this is backwards"

    Er, yes. Thanks for the correction.

    1013:

    "Tidal tenors": perhaps they sing upon the deep, calling from each to each like T. S. Eliot's mermaids...

    As for black hole interiors, yes, I should think that for us outside observers, the knowledge of the interior of the event horizon is theoretical, in classical GR. For the one who falls in, the knowledge is quite concrete.

    Virtual particle pairs: my understanding is also very fuzzy. The arguments involved are one step into the process of incorporating QM into GR. I think part of the explanation is something called the "Unruh effect" in which constantly-generated virtual pairs of particles in the vacuum do not quite cancel each other in accelerating frames (or ones in gravitational fields). (Or something. Frankly, I am relying on wiki at this point.) Near to but not inside the event horizon, some of those particles (which may be anti-particles) fall into the hole, and the corresponding other member of the pair may escape to infinity. The net effect is that the hole loses mass and energy.

    1014:

    Near to but not inside the event horizon, some of those particles (which may be anti-particles) fall into the hole, and the corresponding other member of the pair may escape to infinity. The net effect is that the hole loses mass and energy.

    That's my understanding. This only works if we assume that information is constant and neither created nor destroyed. If this is true, we then have to believe that it's possible for an infinite amount of information to be stored in a space of size zero, aka a black hole. And we furthermore have to assume that when the information of a particle and its antiparticle annihilate each other inside the black hole, the resulting two photons somehow disappear and/or escape the black hole, never mind that E=MC2 seems to indicate that gravity won't decrease to let them out anad evaporate the hole, and...

    But then there's this other thing. The Big Bang started with all the information in the Universe packed into a space of size zero, but it exploded instead of staying as a black hole. Singularity in both cases, completely different outcomes. What's even weirder is that in the early universe, there's not just inflation (stuff comes from nowhere?) but the particles and fields aren't even defined at first because packing them together makes them so hot they lose their identities. This doesn't happen in a black hole because..?

    I am getting very good at confusing myself on this stuff. I'm not sure I want to know enough to understand why this is all simultaneously believed to be true.

    1015:

    "Riemann tidal tensor"

    I assumed you meant Reimann tidal terror. The Cthulu element that inhabits black holes...

    1016:

    why this is all simultaneously believed to be true

    In many cases this isn't; that is, the problems and contradictions are well-known, and people are trying to work it out. Much of what you just said comes under the heading of the "black hole information paradox": configuration information doesn't disappear (on the micro scale) in either classical or quantum mechanics, while according to Hawking and others suggested that the black hole emission would be characterized solely by the hole's mass, angular momentum, and charge, and nothing else. So either QM is incomplete (unitary in QM evolution fails) or GR is incomplete (Hawking radiation does in fact contain the configuration information somehow). (Or there is some other solution.)

    1017:

    RE: '... caveat that any answer to an ecological question that doesn't begin "it depends"'

    Thanks for the detailed explanation and thank you also to everyone else who responded! I was away from this blog for maybe a week and it looks like I've got about 500 comments to read if I want to ctach up on everything. Not sure I have the time ...

    Meanwhile ... based on some comments around @560 re: medical personnel/infrastructure/costs for an aging population. Read an article recently about how AI is being increasingly used to help in diagnosis. The pro is that a 'properly trained' AI is less likely than a human doc to stick to familiar diagnoses therefore has a better chance of catching a rare condition. Also, a lot of humans (esp. males for some reason) seem to have some difficulty being completely honest with their docs about certain things (drinking and smoking top the list) and I'm guessing that such folks probably wouldn't be as likely to bend the truth if they were 'speaking' with a machine. This means a more accurate history, fewer roadblocks to an accurate diagnosis, overall lower med costs and possibly better/higher survival rates.

    Not mentioned in that article I read but sorta related ... Lots of people are already using various health/med devices at home, so one more high-techie gizmo in a familiar format (mobile phone/Alexa) shouldn't present a major barrier to AI acceptance/use. If doctors/med insurance made this a condition of their treatment/coverage, uptake might be faster.

    Then there's the likely uptick in mortality rates due to current climate disasters - pregnant women, young children, people with serious pre-existing conditions and seniors are most vulnerable. If the weather disasters continue, I'm guessing we'll see fatalities even higher than for COVID. (Haven't looked but our current climate pandemic could use something like the Johns Hopkins COVID tracking site. Seriously. Quite a few folks here have deep med/sci backgrounds and probably know someone/some uni/research group that's tracking this - if yes, please provide info/link. Thanks! Half wondering whether the EU and China are already tracking this as both have universal health care.)

    Weather in my area is too damned hot but still survivable. Hope folks here are doing okay wrt their local weather conditions.

    Greg - I was looking for a link to this year's Proms and couldn't find any YT videos. Did the organizers stop posting the concert videos?

    1018:

    (Or there is some other solution.)

    And thus we loop back to Oppenheim and that QM piece I posted, including the video: https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-physicist-who-bets-that-gravity-cant-be-quantized-20230710/ It's also worth watching the video embedded in the link.

    His take, incidentally, is that information can be destroyed, and that spacetime not only can't be quantized, it has a stochastic component. The black hole paradox thus goes away.

    1019:

    pregnant women, young children, people with serious pre-existing conditions and seniors are most vulnerable

    Don't forget prisoners.

    Cell temperatures are inhumane. Like nearly 50C. In Texas, so maybe better in places that aren't shitholes?

    https://cfjctoday.com/2023/07/18/texas-heat-wave-has-inmates-families-worried-about-lack-of-air-conditioning-in-states-prisons/

    Texas has jacked the price the prison commissaries charge for bottled water. Tap water is free, but usually full of sediment and often smelling faintly of sewage.

    https://www.tpr.org/criminal-justice/2023-07-20/texas-charges-prisoners-50-more-for-water-for-as-heat-wave-continues

    1020:

    Half wondering whether the EU and China are already tracking this as both have universal health care.

    China doesn't have a terribly good universal health care system. Sure, only 1 in 20 doesn't have some form of health insurance, but health insurance doesn't cover a lot. And patients often need to pay upfront, which means poorer patients avoid going unless they have to.

    One of my nieces was married to a doctor in Beijing, so I'm relying on what she told me. It's a lot better than it was, and if you're poor likely better than the American system, but still nothing like we have here. (Although given what Dougie's doing that may be changing.)

    In medically related news, Ontario nurses just got an 11% pay rise over the next two years, on top of 1% a year for the last three years. (Pay restrictions imposed by Conservative government as soon as the police got a big wage increase.) This year the CEO of the London Health Sciences Centre got a 40% pay rise. In one year. (London Ontario, so a small city.) Other CEOs are also getting big rises. And the right-wing press are calling nurses greedy…

    1021:

    H
    The Big Bang started with all the information in the Universe packed into a space of size zero - Are we SURE of that? Was it "size zero" or, cough "simply", cough, a very (relatively) small space?

    I'm not sure I want to know enough to understand why this is all simultaneously believed to be true. - Which is precisely what EC is complaining about - & - to a much lesser extent, me too.

    SFR
    Try burrowing down in the BBC web-site - start with R3 &/or "listen again"

    1022:

    If the weather disasters continue, I'm guessing we'll see fatalities even higher than for COVID

    Excess deaths due to climate change is pretty actively studied. Worth starting at WHO.

    1023:

    Um. "Theoretical" is too strong; valid theories are falsifiable. Unless I have seriously misunderstood, we currently have no known mechanism by which the interior of a black hole can be observed.

    1024:

    As spacetime has been expanding since the big bang -- that is, as distance itself comes into being -- it's hard to describe the early universe as if it's packed full of stuff: it's really counterintuitive. What we can say is that it was very very hot and very very homogeneous and very very dense around the 10^-32 second mark, when cosmological inflation (assuming it was a thing) ended, at which point the universe was an insanely hot quark soup on the order of a metre in diameter (give or take a few orders of magnitude); a really long time later at one microsecond, it had cooled enough for stable protons to form.

    Before the inflationary era started ... we have no way to know: matter and energy as they are in the post-inflation universe simply didn't exist, and we don't have tools to probe back that far -- all pre-inflationary cosmology is, as far as I know, entirely speculative.

    1025:

    The thing that blows my mind is that they assume that physical laws are invariant, in order to extrapolate back to that point, but then postulate that the expansion created those physical laws. Some people have even cast doubt on the first, because we have solid evidence only locally (in both space and time).

    1026:

    Charlie & EC
    We have a real problem, you are both correct.
    The fundamental assumption of all science is: "As yesterday, so today & again tomorrow" - that the Laws of Physics are space-&-time invariant.

    We have never seen an exception to this, so far, ever.
    It's also one of the principal defences against religious lying codswallop, for a start!
    But, at the extreme conditions, at the beginning(s) of our observable universe ... then what?
    i.e Before the universe was one microsecond (ish) old, what were the rules, then?

    1027:

    The fundamental assumption of all science is: "As yesterday, so today & again tomorrow" - that the Laws of Physics are space-&-time invariant.

    Physics is not all science. Physics is not the acme of science, nor is it the queen. Even in drag. Physicists, rather, are lucky that they can get work in systems where they can, if they wish, get away with pretending that the useful patterns their heroes have deduced, aka the vaunted laws of physics, appear to be invariant at the scales at which they choose to work.

    Talk to someone who's worked in a history-based field like, oh, astronomy, or especially evolutionary biology, and your statement will induce suppressed giggles. It's not like evolution is inferior science either. Due to various flavors of political bullshit, evolution biology has been tested much more thoroughly than many branches of physics.

    Anyway, dealing with something like explaining the cosmic microwave background via the big bang theory should use an iterative approach: model the past, boggle at the model outputs, fiddle with the model, boggle...eventually get something which seems to a) not make you boggle and b) be falsifiable (or failing that, inspiring of further work), then let it out to the public, to see if it inspires someone to falsify it (or failing that, cite it).

    This is a fundamentally evolutionary process, where many variants are produced, most disappear on contact with academia or possibly reality, and eventually a few become norms, hopefully after surviving years of hazing. There's no set of laws predicting which model will become the new norm, it's all contingent on whatever else is going on at the time (cf the politics around evolution for the last century).

    Is it paradoxical that the process for vetting physical laws is not in itself lawful? Not really. It's just humans being human, for better or worse.

    1028:

    "The tidal forces felt by an explorer crossing the horizon turn out to be finite, and indeed can be quite small if the mass of the hole is sufficiently large."

    The cosmic booby trap. Drive your spaceship past this surface and you'll never get out again, but you won't know when it's about to happen.

    Random and doubtless unoriginal silly thought: maybe we are inside a black hole, but it's all inside out from our viewpoint, so the centre is at infinite distance in any direction. And "inflation" was just a collapse seen from the inside (outside).

    Poles: I'm used to them never actually being "complete" in reality in the way they are in the formulae, because there's always some real-world confounding factor that gets in the way, like resistance and radiative losses and stuff, and no doubt if you get small enough, quantisation limits. The trajectory of your device that traverses the surface with the pole in it never actually goes right over the top of the pole, it always skates just round the side of it no matter how hard you try to make it go straight over the top. Practically your trying never gets beyond the level of trying to remove all the imperfections in the construction of your device, but even if you did somehow manage to build a perfect one it still wouldn't work perfectly because quantum effects would fuzz things up.

    1029:

    H
    Your bias is showing ....
    But as "even" EC admits ... Gen Relativity is founded well, As is QM & - yes, oops, now what?
    But those two have been (now) repeatedly shown to be true & that their predictions work.
    There is an implicit problem in modern observations at the extremes of the very large ( & usually far-away ) & also at the ultimately small - see also my "argument" over the minimal quantised length, which may, or may not exist.

    But & contrariwise, 99%+ of all the "philosophical" problems prior to 1850, or maybe later, which were the subject of endless debate by "philosophers" - usually religious ones, to boot ... have been solved & smashed, by a combination of Physics-&-Mathematics. That combination tool has been demonstrated to be remarkably effective.
    Again, contrariwise, where I agree with you & EC is the running-off-in-all directions on several horses, simultaneously, at the wilder edges of supposed-physics, backed up by precisely zero experimental-&/or-observational evidence.

    It all screams to me that we are missing something, probably horrendously obvious & hiding in plain sight ...
    I'm reminded of T H Huxley on Evolution - or, maybe, that the Laws of Physics are consistent within circumscribed, but very large "realms" - as per V Vinge's "Fire Upon the Deep" - we are deep in the Slows?
    Or even a long-ago short story by ???? where FTL is simple & obvious, even to Bronze-Age peoples, but we've missed it... until they come visiting - & regret it, eternally.

    1030:

    Yes. Heteromeles misses the point that the fundamental laws are mostly statistics and related areas, and that's as invariant as any form of mathematics. The 'laws' he is referring to as highly mutable are better classified as empirical rules of thumb, or post hoc summaries.

    1031:

    Yes.

    As I said, from a more general physics point of view, event horizons behave like a pole, including in the way you describe. Black hole diving is at best speculation.

    I am singularly unconvinced by coordinate systems that swap time and space whether or not they are analytic in terms of the formulae, because that's another form of extrapolating over a singularity. The point there is that we still can't explain the 'arrow of time', but we are almost certain it's important.

    1032:

    Or even a long-ago short story by ???? where FTL is simple & obvious, even to Bronze-Age peoples

    "The Road Not Taken" by Harry Turtledove.

    1033:

    I too, find Pigeon's speculation that we are inside a black hole & that the "view" is inverted ... very interesting.

    Meanwhile, changing subject, & reverting to a point made by Charlie in the recent past, more than once Covid has NOT gone away - and it's after-effects are being deliberately ignored by the political establishment, especially the tories of course, but I don't think anyone else wants to open that can-of-worms ... but, sooner or later, they are going to have to.

    1034:

    Or even a long-ago short story by ???? where FTL is simple & obvious, even to Bronze-Age peoples, but we've missed it... until they come visiting - & regret it, eternally.

    "The road not taken" by Harry Turtledove -- an absolute classic.

    In which the alien starship lands on the White House lawn and the conquistadores spill out, brandishing their weapons, merrily planning to conquer and loot the primitive planet that hasn't developed FTL travel ... and get taken down by the US Secret Service, because it turns out that FTL is so obvious to the rest of the galaxy that the aliens have never gotten past the matchlock muzzle-loader and the president's bodyguards alone out-gun them by some spectacular order of magnitude (automatic rifles! MANPADs on the rooftops!), never mind the regular military.

    1035:

    Vulch
    Thanks - yes, that's it - complete brain-fade for Author's name ...
    H has written two or three others, set in that universe/milieu, but nothing longer than a "short" more's the pity.

    1036:

    Yes. Heteromeles misses the point that the fundamental laws are mostly statistics and related areas, and that's as invariant as any form of mathematics. The 'laws' he is referring to as highly mutable are better classified as empirical rules of thumb, or post hoc summaries.

    Seriously?

    On one side, you have Physics, which can't tell you what 96% of the universe is, which can't tell you whether time is real, fundamental, emergent or subjective, which has wasted billions hunting for particles it can't find, and I can go on...

    And on the other side you have evolutionary biology, which allowed us to predict Covid-19. Yes, in 2020 they war-gamed what would happen if a novel coronavirus emerged in China, which is predictive evolutionary biology at work.

    And physics is the queen of sciences? That line of reasoning is almost as bad as Trumpism. Look at what we've been bashing for the last week. Don't revert to your childhood conditioning. Sheesh.

    1037:

    Robert Prior noted: "China doesn't have a terribly good universal health care system. Sure, only 1 in 20 doesn't have some form of health insurance, but health insurance doesn't cover a lot. And patients often need to pay upfront, which means poorer patients avoid going unless they have to."

    My understanding (based on reports by a few Chinese colleagues, thus a very narrow window into the larger picture) are that most rural people who immigrate to big cities in search of work have no access to medical care unless they can bribe someone to reclassify them as urban residents. Tha means much closer to 50% than the 5% you cited who lack access to medical care. In addition, you may need to purchase basic supplies such as rubber gloves for your doctor (they aren't included in medicare) and if you want clean sheets and meals while you're in the hospital, you need a friend or relative or someone hired to bring you what you need. Last but not least, many doctors expect lavish gifts if you want cadillac service.

    Heteromeles noted that "Physics is not all science. Physics is not the acme of science, nor is it the queen. Even in drag. Physicists, rather, are lucky that they can get work in systems where they can, if they wish, get away with pretending that the useful patterns their heroes have deduced, aka the vaunted laws of physics, appear to be invariant at the scales at which they choose to work."

    A lot of the more arcane physics strikes me as "not even wrong" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Not_even_wrong), since it's not testable and thus not falsifiable. Physics sometimes also makes heroid efforts to avoid the need to admit a problem that might jeopardize the standard model (e.g., entanglement works instantaneously yet doesn't violate the speed-of-light limit on information transfer over any distance). The math may be self-consistent, but that doesn't mean it's right. Rather, it seems more like saying "1+1=3, but only for large values of 1. If you accept the premise, the result is clearly correct.

    1038:

    On one side you have writing a computer program to calculate whether or not a is equal to b. If you succeed, you have an exact answer. But for a discouragingly large proportion of real-world pairs of a and b it turns out to be fundamentally impossible to succeed, and for another depressingly numerous chunk of cases you can do no better than get an answer of dubious value that only holds if any or all of a, b and == are spherical cows.

    On the other side you have asking Chat GPT to produce a novel using the plot of Start Warts and the story space of Hairy Rotter in the style of DH Lawrence. Only it's a better developed version of Chat GPT that values accuracy and quality, so it produces something that more or less manages to hold together for 400 pages instead of falling apart by the third paragraph like the real one does.

    This is quite a shit analogy, but possibly not shit to the point of uselessness.

    1039:

    And evolutionary biology isn't a form of applied statistics? You could have fooled me.

    1040:

    But quite possibly shit enough to the point of unreadability.

    1041:

    Or even a long-ago short story by ???? where FTL is simple & obvious, even to Bronze-Age peoples, but we've missed it... until they come visiting - & regret it, eternally.

    I believe you're thinking of Harry Turtledove's "The Road Not Taken".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Road_Not_Taken_(short_story)

    1042:

    I don't think it's original and I make no claims for its value as any kind of serious thought. It's basically that I am tickled by the similarity of 1..0 and 1..∞, and so by transformations like r -> 1/r in polar coordinates, and I like to visualise the results of thinking like that about things that vaguely suggest it in some way or another. This produces ideas which are nearly always entirely useless, except in the context of science fiction where some authors like to write books using ideas like that.

    1043:

    Re: 'Excess deaths due to climate change is pretty actively studied ....'

    Thanks! I just checked and the WHO doesn't really have solid or timely data on climate related deaths the way that Johns Hopkins had on COVID. One positive surprise was a PDF discussing how Turkey is addressing this - they have a plan, they're actively monitoring the situation and their goal is more aggressive than most other countries. No other countries were mentioned/cited as having a data base on this or a solid a plan on how to deal with climate related health issues.

    Not the best laid out site - hard to find any info/data. Looks more like it's a promotional rather than an educational site - not a good image to present to people looking for reliable info.

    Aliens-FTL vs. humans-guns ...

    We've already had this type of event in human history: China discovered porcelain, Europe discovered glass. Same original intended purpose but each material had different other/secondary uses, i.e., glass - windows, eye glasses, and telescopes were probably the most important. Overall, I think the 'other' uses turned out to be much more important.

    About six months into the pandemic it seemed that the world was actively united on some worthwhile goal: in an SF/F scenario, the world could band together if hostile aliens attacked. That feeling got trashed when Putin invaded Ukraine and much of the rest of the world just shrugged it off as 'not our business'.

    Universe & stats ...

    Curious how you can figure out what a missing piece of the puzzle is using statistics. My assumption was that the stats test used was based on a priori knowledge of the attributes of whatever you're studying/testing.

    1044:

    Meanwhile, changing subject, & reverting to a point made by Charlie in the recent past, more than once Covid has NOT gone away...

    Absolutely right. Here in the U.S., politicians and average Americans have decided the epidemic is over. The medical profession disagrees, of course, but has little power at this point. Personally, I almost never see anybody wearing masks around other people - perhaps 1 in 100 people still mask. But I always wear N95 masks around other people, and I still isolate and social distance where possible. I have no desire to deal with long Covid at my age...

    1045:

    Same thing in my part of Canada. One reason I shop at T&T is that many of the customers and most of the staff do wear masks. I just have to time it so the non-Asian seniors aren't shopping…

    At other grocery shops and the library I'm usually the only person wearing a mask.

    1046:

    And evolutionary biology isn't a form of applied statistics? You could have fooled me.

    No more than driving in Los Angeles is a form of applied statistics.

    It's a common and embarrassing mistake to make, that use of common mathematical tools implies that an expert in one field can be competent in another. GETTING THE DATA, and HAVING AN INKLING WHAT IT MEANS are more important.

    To use the above example, LA is laced with freeways that are subject to daily traffic jams. Any experienced LA driver is does a bunch of informal probability assessments to figure out when to leave and where to drive, helped out both by computer models and specialized radio reports.

    A hypothetical UK statistician, trying to drive in LA on his first visit to the US, is going to be too freaked out by trying to drive on the right side of the freeway to even get the most useful data, let alone do something with it, more so because the traffic around the airport is among the worst in LA.

    To pick an evolutionary biology example, the viper biologist Harry Greene, on one famous project, "sedated" the fer-de-Lances he was studying with "one grad student per foot of snake" (imagine four people holding a rather poisonous viper. I've seen that picture) while he took samples and shoved a radio transmitter down its throat (it would poop out--literally--a few weeks later). Sure, Dr. Greene used stats, but I'm not sure that was his most essential skill....

    1047:

    On one side, you have Physics, which can't tell you what 96% of the universe is...

    And on the other side you have evolutionary biology, which allowed us to predict Covid-19.

    I think you're overly optimistic about how much biologists know.

    Take human genes, for example. Biologists don't even know how many genes we humans have (roughly 30,000). I can't find any hard numbers (thanks, Google), but I'd guess the percentage of genes whose function biologists fully understand is in the low single digits. The interactions of our genes with each other and with our cellular machinery are combinatorially explosive, and it will likely be centuries (IMHO) before they are mostly known.

    1048:

    Barbenheimer (Barbie & Oppenheimer movies)

    I was looking for more reviews about Barbie and Oppenheimer because all the reviews I saw earlier today for Barbie also had a review for Oppenheimer. And this evening's top search response for the two movies was 'Barnenheimer' on Wikipedia. Wow - impressive that this new meme already has its own Wikipedia page. BTW - excellent reviews for both films.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbenheimer

    The Oppenheimer reviews and promo got me thinking about a physics grad student who did some pretty interesting science covers/adaptations of popular songs. One of his songs was about Oppenheimer, worth a re-listen. (IIRC, I first learned about Tim Blais on this blog.)

    Eminemium (Choose Yourself) | A Capella Science

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_wYX96L4Vo

    1049:

    Take human genes, for example. Biologists don't even know how many genes we humans have (roughly 30,000). I can't find any hard numbers (thanks, Google), but I'd guess the percentage of genes whose function biologists fully understand is in the low single digits. The interactions of our genes with each other and with our cellular machinery are combinatorially explosive, and it will likely be centuries (IMHO) before they are mostly known.

    You're behind the times. Sequences that have biological effect can be regulators, small segment RNA, non-coding but critical for folding DNA or RNA (ITS1 and ITS2, which are so phylogenetically useful, are like this), code for single genes, code for multiple genes...

    There's a lot we know, and a lot we don't know, but the gene count as a useful summation of anything is very 2000s.

    Heck, there are even songs about what we know now, e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydqReeTV_vk

    1050:

    That feeling got trashed when Putin invaded Ukraine and much of the rest of the world just shrugged it off as 'not our business'.

    such ingratitude

    after all we've done for them

    1052:

    You might be surprised about how much of real statistics is about thinking about what results really tell you, what they don't, and what else might be going on. But that wasn't really my point anyway, which was that the invariant basis of the subject is the underlying mathematics. Yes, everything else varies with the individual experiment.

    But I do like your implication that driving in Los Angeles and fer de lance wrestling are both topics in evolutionary biology. So true :-)

    1053:

    From a US magazine / "left" wing publication: The 1850's were the run-up to the US Civil War - have those times returned?
    Comments, please?
    I note that this week's weekend "FT" is saying something similar about the USA: "Are we living in Leopoldstadt?" .. Leopoldstadt - explanation) - referring to the dreaded return of Trump, if a fake "centrist" splits the actual centre vote.

    1054:

    You always need SOME knowledge of a topic to apply statistics, but you can often tell that there's a piece missing, or a piece doesn't fit as it is currently specified, without full knowledge.

    In the case of things like excess deaths, you are correct that the estimates are always a bit iffy. The calculations of how many more than usual aren't too bad (though with a fair amount of uncertainty) but the attribution of causes requires educated guesswork, and you can't tell whether any individual death is due to a particular cause.

    This is why it is almost impossible to sue for such deaths. A large employer has three times as many workplace injuries as the rest of its industry - in the absence of other explanations, almost certainly managerial negligence. But did dead Fred die from that, or incurable stupidity? We can't say.

    However, in this case, the educated guesswork is pretty reliable, because we do understand the causal chains fairly well. I agree that the Web sites are shoddy, but explaining the reasoning is hard, even in academic papers. And doing so for Joe Public is probably infeasible.

    1055:

    Re: Genes, cells, oh my!

    Recently read about this international collaborative effort to map biochemical (incl. genetic) reactions in every cell.

    https://www.humancellatlas.org/

    At this level of detail and complexity (number of possible interactions/effects), I think biologists are gonna need some super-duper computing power.

    1056:

    You also didn't need evolutionary biology to predict COVID. The inevitability of such a disease and its spread has been pointed out for many years, including by people with negligible biological background. The point is that we have had lots of such things over the years, varying in infectiousness and lethality, including the closely-relared SARS.

    And, once it occurred, the facts that it could be neither stopped nor eliminated were equally obvious. It took a little while for most medics, politicians and pundits to realise that, but epidemiologists knew from day one and I knew from February 2022.

    1057:
    Before we go any further: Thoughts on this one - other than "ummmm ..." ? ??

    Greg,

    I've now tracked down a pre-print PDF for this Nature paper.

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2307.10351.pdf

    If you look at Figure 1 you'll see that the object GPM J1839−10 is right on the cusp of the theoretically calculated "Death Valley" - either a Neutron/Magnetar Death Valley, or a White Dwarf Death Valley.

    Given the simplifications in the calculations, there could easily be a small error in those plotted "Death Lines".

    Happy to be corrected by any real physicists on my observations.

    1058:

    From a US magazine / "left" wing publication: The 1850's were the run-up to the US Civil War - have those times returned? Comments, please?

    Yes, but you've got to pay careful attention to the causal arrow.

    It's not the times, it's conservatives putting their undergrad training in history and political science to use by rerunning the tactics that worked during Reconstruction to insure white supremacy in the South and elsewhere. The reason I say undergrad is that many of them became lawyers and far right media personalities.

    So if it looks like a repeat, it's because they're using tactics and strategies that worked in the past, not because of "the times."

    There's also a lot of dark money funding such efforts, coming reportedly from a fairly small coterie of far right billionaires funding much of this (probably including Putin, to be honest). Apparently (from some reporting/op ed) they're upset that when they've tried to form a secret cabal to run the world, the world's proved ungovernable, even with massive bribery and influence peddling. So they're trying the next best thing, now with AIs working for them.

    So if you're wondering why I've soured on billionaires...

    1059:

    There's a lot we know, and a lot we don't know, but the gene count as a useful summation of anything is very 2000s.

    Yup!

    The more we know the less we know we know, but the more we know we don't know. If you know what I mean.

    1060:

    As a programming language / environment, it puts the imaginations of the best computer scientists to shame! While it is hard to imagine a system not subject to a Goedel / Turing type limit, I can't convince myself that we know even that. I can imagine gene programmers of the 22nd century doing things with it that we (current people) couldn't even begin to understand.

    And that doesn't even need to assume that Penrose has a point :-)

    1061:

    I have a strong suspicion that, at least in the UK, 'they' are trying to weaponise anti-environmentalism to keep Starmer out the way they did so successfully with anti-semitism and Corbyn. Whether or not the utterly ridiculous anti-ULEZ propoaganda coming crom the usual culprits had much effect in the recent by-elections, I am damn certain it was meant to.

    1062:

    epidemiologists knew from day one and I knew from February 2022

    I knew from, I think, April or May 2020 -- when they had that huge mink cull in Denmark.

    At that point it became clear that COVID19 could become endemic in other animal species, thereby setting up disease reservoirs (with scope for mutation and breakout). The fact that it got into the North American deer population and also infects cats was the icing on the cake: from that point on our only hope was a sterilizing vaccine, which at the current lethargic pace of development could be decades away.

    1063:

    I note the ULEZ currently being blamed on Sadiq Khan actually came out of Boris Johnson's tenure as mayor.

    So it's a plain-as-daylight political ratfucking, never mind anything about the environmental politics (like blaming Barack Obama for 9/11).

    1064:

    Yes. The only reason that I knew so early is that I had read a document that gave the estimated infection rate and where the experts thought it had escaped to. Given that, and the known properties of coronaviruses (including resistance to vaccines), it was pretty clear. I agree that the mink cull made it clear this was a true forever disease.

    1065:

    Robert Prior @ 1041:

    "Or even a long-ago short story by ???? where FTL is simple & obvious, even to Bronze-Age peoples, but we've missed it... until they come visiting - & regret it, eternally."

    I believe you're thinking of Harry Turtledove's "The Road Not Taken".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Road_Not_Taken_(short_story)

    Ok, so if discovery of gravity manipulation leading to FTL travel results in technological stagnation in OTHER fields, what happens to Earth after the Roxolani "gift" us with it?

    1066:

    As a programming language / environment, it puts the imaginations of the best computer scientists to shame! While it is hard to imagine a system not subject to a Goedel / Turing type limit, I can't convince myself that we know even that. I can imagine gene programmers of the 22nd century doing things with it that we (current people) couldn't even begin to understand.

    I think, for DNA, RNA, and proteins, the Turing machine analogy isn't very relevant. For example, RNA isn't just a code, it also forms devices. It's as if you could do origami with the tape being read by the Turing machine to build the Turing machine. That element of recursion is what makes the analogy suspect.

    The other problem is that the output tends to be pieces of tape which self-fold into useful devices, but only in the right environment. Again, this isn't quite what Turing meant.

    Working with the I/O on such a system takes specialized skills and a lot of effort. For example, look at how much work went into figuring out how to tell human immune systems to kill covid19 viruses. That's effectively what you're talking about with most genetic "programming" projects.

    1067:

    That's why I said "programming language / environment", and "Goedel / Turing TYPE limit". Actually, that feedback is precisely what distinguishes a Turing machine from a finite automaton!

    It's a philosophical point. Penrose has claimed that the human brain is not subject to a Goedel / Turing type limit (i.e. being unable to analyse oneself), but most people assume that it is. I remain undecided.

    And, yes, your last paragraph is precisely what I meant.

    1068:

    ...note that the superficial resemblance between a ribosome reading a strand of DNA and a Turing machine reading a length of tape is nothing to do with this matter, and is just a coincidental source of confusion in this context.

    1069:

    Yes. And something that escapes even many computer scientists is that it is the very ability to program itself on the fly that creates Turing undecidability. The main reason for using the tape model is to show that even a very basic machine can emulate much more complex machine, and has all of the same constraints.

    I have never been convinced by the arguments that the DNA / epigenetics / etc. system can be modelled by a Turing machine, nor by the arguments that it can't. My point was that it can be treated like a programming system, but is VASTLY more complicated and inchoate than even the worst nightmares of computer scientists.

    That is why I said the 22nd century - I doubt that people will be able to work with it, systematically, before then. At present, partially informed hacking is the best we can do, and the results are often not what is expected. Whether they will be able to understand it even in the 22nd century is another matter entirely :-)

    1070:

    The fact that it got into the North American deer population

    There is some speculation that 1/3 of the deer in the US (maybe North America) have had COVID.

    And no I can't source this. I read it a week or two ago and don't have any idea where. Except it likely came via Apple News aggregation.

    1072:

    Yes. But that's old data. Published 1 1/2 years ago. It estimated 5 million infected world wide. Here in the US we have somewhere between 25 and 35 million deer. 1/3 of this would be 8 to 12 million in the US alone.

    Estimates vary wildly mostly due to them living all over in the US. I have them in my suburb back yard at night several times a month. Especially if I leave the fence gate open. Six one night just before the pandemic. But it is only a 4 foot fence. Growing up I had a neighbor with maybe 10 acres of mostly wooded area with a garden near his house. His 8' fence didn't keep them out. Drove him nuts. Lots of grumbling. But that was also his normal mode.

    1074:

    »And something that escapes even many computer scientists «

    Something which seems to escape everybody is that given enough time "evolutionary programming" will explore the entire reachable solution space.

    In other words, if there is a way to "GOTO" you are guaranteed to get spaghetti-code.

    I can highly recommend this article on the subject: https://nmi.informatik.uni-leipzig.de/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/rep_fpga_cec2022.pdf

    Summary: Moving the evolved circuit to a different part of the same FPGA chip dropped the fitness by two orders of magnitude, because it had evolved to exploit local cross-talk.

    We are seeing plenty of evidence of this effect already: Pretty much any protein being eyed as a drug-target is found to have 19 different functions all over the place.

    I have never met anybody with credible experience in un-pastaing a serious code-base, who think we will /ever/ have a snowball's chance of "(re)programming" the DNA/Protein based system in any meaningful way.

    And it is not just the complexity: It's not like the natural selection is going to pause and wait, while we try to refactor even the smallest corner of some protein, every single "commit" we make must be an improvement in darwinian terms.

    1075:

    You are maligning GOTO! It's no harder using purely functional programming. All Turing machines (and pretty well all code monkeys) are equivalent.

    I first hit that effect in SPSS back in the mid-1970s where, after a week of debugging (with a pretty good debugger), I gave up and made a data corruption problem go away by adding a 4-byte NOP in a part of the code that was neither executed nor read. That sort of issue was almost unknown then, but it's now the new normal :-(

    I am happy for you to extend the earliest understanding of the system to the 22nd millennium, or even to beyond the lifetime of the human race. My feeling for what will be (im)possible in a century's time is pretty poor, except where it is based on known mathematics.

    1076:

    I gave up and made a data corruption problem go away by adding a 4-byte NOP in a part of the code that was neither executed nor read. That sort of issue was almost unknown then, but it's now the new normal :-(

    Well now that almost sounds like that guy in the 80s who talked about one of the prime mini computers they had. There was a bad spot of memory with a stuck bit or few way up past the OS in user space. The editor would use it. They learned to keep a block of comments in that space as none of their compiling or run times ever hit it for the development they were doing.

    1077:

    Re: 'And it is not just the complexity: ...'

    While reading about Oppenheimer I got pulled into a 'chaos theory' rabbit hole. My takeaway so far: the slightest change in any of the works (particle, force, timing, direction, etc.) can make a huge difference. The most basic example is the double pendulum. At the same time, on an overall basis, there is some pattern development. Not sure how helpful that is for new drug discovery or any situation where you need a reliable answer NOW!

    Below is a how-to make/teach:

    https://sciencedemonstrations.fas.harvard.edu/presentations/chaotic-pendulum#:~:text=A%20double%20pendulum%20executes%20simple,systems%20are%20not%20necessarily%20predictable.

    1078:

    It sounds like that, but wasn't. It was entirely software and the sort of thing that Poul-Henning Kamp was describing as characteristic of biological systems.

    Now, in the late 1990s, I did have a hardware error of the sort you describe (only much more obscure) on a supercomputer I was managing.

    1079:

    Back in the 70s one of the system programmers at the univ said they discovered a floating point error on a mainframe (late 60s early 70s). Took them a while to even get the manufacturer's support engineers to even look at the issue. They just couldn't believe it could happen and blew them off for a while. When they did look it was one of those "OMG what!!!!" moments.

    Your problems sounds like some of those I'd find when looking at the output from a compiler. Where adding a bit of do nothing code would move things around and create or alleviate issues in the generated code. Fun times. (Yeah, right.)

    1080:

    What happened if you put 4 bytes of illegal instructions there instead? :)

    1081:

    Ecosystems are generally heavily controlled by humans, and humans have opinions that may over-rule what we ecologists might want to accomplish.

    CBS Sunday Morning (a US light news show) had a segment about the re-wilding of an English estate. And how it was going back to nature. But to me is seemed that they were just taking it back how the nobles kept it 100 to 300 years ago. Cows, hogs, deer, etc... And based on the US experience with un-fenced hogs, I can see this going south.

    Any thoughts from anyone in England?

    To me it looks more like a return to a time that never was but seems neat to many.

    https://www.rewildingbritain.org.uk/rewilding-projects/knepp-castle-estate

    1082:

    That reminds me of determining which of the eight RAM chips (one for each bit of a byte) in a BBC Micro was fucked. I managed to wiggle just enough machine code into the parts of memory that were still working to alternately write all 1s and all 0s to the parts that weren't, so I could probe each of the data lines in turn with an analogue multimeter and see which one gave a different reading from all the rest.

    Which in turn reminds me that there were a few obscure bugs in early versions of the 6502 where there were particular combinations of instructions, operands and addresses that would make it get the carry/wraparound wrong in its address arithmetic. At least one of them was obscure enough that you would more or less never hit it, so as to cause maximum puzzlement if you happened to be one of the people who did.

    1083:

    I [...] made a data corruption problem go away by adding a 4-byte NOP in a part of the code that was neither executed nor read.

    Well obviously if it was never read, it totally needed that, how else is the compiler/interpreter supposed to know it can ignore it :). See also changing tabs to spaces and vice versa (except in Python I guess; how the heck did a language that makes whitespace meaningful become popular? I mean, even as a reaction against Perl).

    When I read PHK's comment I was thinking more along the lines of the stories about games that used memory-access latency or disk platter speed for timing. When it's all just seeing what sticks to the wall, relying on context-specific environment variables will end up in the code.

    1084:

    I'm slowly chasing a Schwarzschild bug right now... one that only happens where you can't see it.

    So far we have ruled out it happening under load on a local machine running any kind of debugger, in the normal cloud instance under low load, in the cloud in less than a month under any conditions we've tried, and using any plausible version of memcheck settings (including some that kill performance by padding to the point CPU caching breaks).

    But we definitely know for sure that after a couple of months in normal production we get memory corruption (at millions of transactions per day). And we start leaking a couple of kilobytes a day of memory (in a program that has ~100MB of executable and a GB or two of working memory).

    There's an event horizon for sure...

    1085:

    My takeaway so far: the slightest change in any of the works (particle, force, timing, direction, etc.) can make a huge difference.

    I recall reading somewhere that Slotin's death was caused not only by his rather cavalier attitude towards safely, but by his left hand acting as part of the apparatus (which hadn't been in their calculations).

    Trying to recall where I read this. Haven't had any luck finding it online, so may well not be true.

    1086:

    »but by his left hand acting as part of the apparatus (which hadn't been in their calculations).«

    There were not many calculations at that stage, which is pretty much precisely why he was doing that experiment in the first place.

    It took some weeks before somebody realized that the water in his body had moderated the neutrons, but ever since then that has been rule zero in handling criticality incidents: Getting closer will make it (much) worse.

    1087:

    David L
    Un-fenced hogs ??? Like outside a wonderful pub in the New Forest, many years ago, where the wild pigs were cheerfully scratching themselves on someone's nice, shiny, new BMW?
    The Royal Oak, Fritham - actually.

    re-wilding as regards back to nature or not: ... (again) - the Knapp castle people seem to be doing Ok & there are already other wild boar loose in Kent, anyway.
    What we are hoping for are MORE Beavers ( splosh )

    1088:

    Nothing. As I implied, the debugger was good enough to determine that it was never referenced; indeed, the whole 'module' it was in was neither executed nor referenced. It clearly had changed the alignment of something else a long way off, and that caused the other 'module' to fail, but my attempts at tracking down what came to naught. And I had something like a 99% success rate in that era.

    1089:

    Yeah. I did SO love that sort of bug. I had a pretty awful success rate - but that was a hell of a lot higher than most people.

    1090:

    Actually, Python's use of indentation is fairly sane; I don't love it, but don't loathe it, either. I'll raise you fstab, make, C, etc., where tabs and an equivalent number of spaces are syntactically different.

    1091:

    Actually, Python's use of indentation is fairly sane; I don't love it, but don't loathe it, either. I'll raise you fstab, make, C, etc., where tabs and an equivalent number of spaces are syntactically different.

    I've never liked tabs so the first time I saw a makefile I replaced all the tabs with spaces.

    (for those unfamiliar with make, the makefile would then no longer work)

    And the latest version of g++ (GNU C++ compiler) is layout sensitive in that it issues a warning if the indentation of the code makes it appear that lines after the first line indicate they are in the scope of an if statement. And it assumes a tab corresponds to 8 spaces.

    Unable to post example code

    1092:

    Re: Slotin's death

    I wasn't familiar with Slotin so looked him up on Wikipedia followed by the BBC article below which has a more detailed description of events.

    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230719-the-blue-flash-louis-slotin-accident-manhattan-project-oppenheimer-atomic-bomb

    If you're also looking up Oppenheimer, highly recommend the below video which YT recommended after I re-watched some favorite AcapellaScience videos. The connection: Veritasium host/narrator (Derek Muller, PhD physics education) sang in 'Hamilton'.

    'Why Oppenheimer Deserves His Own Movie' (32:51)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xzv84ZdtlE0

    PHK @1086: Re: '... that the water in his body had moderated the neutrons,'

    Please elaborate or provide a link preferably at lay/non-scientist-level detail! The 'moderated the neutrons' is the head-scratcher. Thanks!

    1093:

    "Nothing. As I implied, the debugger was good enough to determine that it was never referenced"

    Sorry. The :) was intended to imply a citation of Murphy's Law of Illegitimacy (if anything can be a bastard, it will), whereby it might still have made a difference even so...

    1094:

    1090: I can't think of anywhere in C (except quoted strings and character constants, of course) where spaces and tabs are treated differently. Having said that, my experience is in C90 and C99; they may have done something stupid after I left WG14.

    1091: GNU make lets you change the character that indicates a recipe:

    .RECIPEPREFIX = |

    x.o : x.c

    |cc -o x.o -c x.c

    1095:

    "I've never liked tabs so the first time I saw a makefile I replaced all the tabs with spaces."

    I did that, too. I think everyone does it at least once :)

    "And the latest version of g++ (GNU C++ compiler) is layout sensitive in that it issues a warning if the indentation of the code makes it appear that lines after the first line indicate they are in the scope of an if statement."

    I discovered that the other day... the source file had something like:

    if (arse.state == ITCHY)
      scratch(&arse);

      printf("Chat, GPT\n");
     printf("ahh, Bisto\n");

    The indentation was all to cock throughout the entire file and the whole thing could have done with prettifying just to make it legible, but only that bit made gcc cough.

    I'm always puzzled why nearly every C or C++ source file I read uses such a horrible style of indentation in any case. Everyone seems to make strenuous efforts to use as few columns as possible, but be extravagantly wasteful in their prolific use of superfluous rows. Which has been the wrong way round ever since the designer of the first monitor failed to realise that the CRT still works just fine if you rotate it 90 degrees from its conventional orientation in a TV set.

    Oddly enough javascript tends to have exactly the opposite problem - instead of putting the statements subject to the "if" each on their own line in a block enclosed by curly brackets, they come as a great string of comma expressions enclosed by round brackets all on the same 2000-character line, and it very quickly gets ridiculous. Especially when that line also includes numerous instances of using the short-circuit-evaluation property of logical operators to stand in for chunks that ought to be multiple-line "if" sub-clauses in their own right.

    1096:

    ...oh, bollocks, the blog stripped the &nbsp;s at the start of the lines. Imagine that all lines except the first have at least two spaces of indentation, but not necessarily all the same amount.

    1097:

    I wasn't familiar with Slotin so looked him up

    One of many Canadian connections to the Manhattan Project.

    1098:

    It would be more like 6-800 years ago, I think.
    I don't think they are building a theme park, at least not in the explicitly feudal way you seem to be suggesting.

    I am not particularly well informed about what they're doing, but my reading of Oliver Rackham (which I grant is 15 years ago) suggests that it's consistent with our understanding of things as they were. And as EC has said, there is no unmodified land in Britain.

    1099:

    "The 'moderated the neutrons' is the head-scratcher."

    "Moderating" neutrons means slowing them down.

    The neutrons emitted by a nucleus undergoing fission have energies of a few MeV and so are moving extremely fast. But it is difficult for other fissile nuclei to absorb fast-moving neutrons, so they're not very good for carrying on the chain reaction. You can make it work using the neutrons raw, but you have to set up fairly extreme conditions to compensate for the large proportion of the neutrons that get wasted instead of being absorbed.

    However, if a neutron is only moving at the same kind of speed as atoms that are just jiggling about from ordinary thermal motion, it is very easy for a fissile nucleus to absorb it. So what you do is bounce the neutrons off a load of nuclei of light atoms that don't absorb neutrons (too much). At each bounce they lose some energy by sharing it with the nucleus they bounce off, and when they have lost 99.9999% of it any fissile nuclei that they encounter will gobble them up with esurient rapacity. The difference in esurience is several orders of magnitude.

    Suitable light nuclei for bouncing neutrons off include hydrogen, deuterium and carbon, so nuclear reactors usually have the fuel rods surrounded by water, heavy water or graphite, and this substance is called the "moderator".

    A neutron moderator also acts as a neutron reflector. Neutrons go into a lump of it, bounce around, and come out again in a different direction, which is vaguely back the way they came from usefully often. Like shining a light through a glass of milky water. Of course it's nothing like as good as a mirror is with light, but it's a lot better than nothing at all, and neutrons are so awkward that it's the best you can do. So as well as having moderator material in the core, a nuclear reactor also usually has a layer of moderator material surrounding the core, to try and reflect at least some of the escaping neutrons back into the core instead of letting them go to waste.

    The figure you find looking up the "critical mass" of a fissile substance is talking about a spherical lump of it hanging in empty space. It's how big the lump needs to be to absorb a large enough proportion of its own raw neutrons, even though they are difficult to absorb, to sustain a chain reaction, with no other substance nearby to get involved. The "real" critical mass in a real situation is different, either bigger or smaller and possibly by a very large factor, depending on what shape your fissile lump is and what other substances are nearby to get involved.

    So if you have a lump of fissile substance which is just below critical mass when sitting alone on the table, and you put a lump of moderator material near it, some of the neutrons coming out of it, instead of heading off into the wide blue yonder, hit the lump of moderator material and bounce around inside it, and some of them bounce out of it again heading back towards the lump of fissile material, now going slowly enough that they are extremely likely to be absorbed by a fissile nucleus. Effectively, the "real" critical mass is slightly reduced by the proximity of the lump of moderator, and might now be slightly less than the mass of your lump of fissile material. You don't want that to happen.

    The human body is almost entirely made of elements which are good moderator materials, especially hydrogen, so if you walk over to a barely subcritical chunk of fissile material and start cuddling it, it might bite.

    This is also the principle on which the nuclear dogshit vaporiser works. You have a receptacle made of fissile material which is so shaped and mounted as to be barely subcritical, and to be convenient for dogs to shit in. The moderating effect of a dog turd in the receptacle reduces the "real" critical mass and allows a chain reaction to start. The energy absorbed by the turd rapidly vaporises it, which removes the moderating effect and the reaction then stops again.

    1100:

    The preprocessor. I got caught by that with one compiler that adhered strictly to the standard. It may have been fixed in C99 or a subsequent revision - I can't remember, noe can I remember exactly where it was, nor can I find my copy of C90!

    1101:

    Pigeon @ 1099
    😍 💩 😍 💩 😍 💩 😍 💩 ......

    1102:

    Apropos of cosmological theorizing: another example of how appropriating the math from one field to use ur another does not mean that the two phenomena share a common mechanism:

    https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-quantum-physics-describes-earths-weather-patterns-20230718/

    This is relevant for attempts to linkQM and GR. And interesting in its own right, if you care about climate.

    1103:

    A secondary aspect of this is that the critical mass of a fissile material is lower in aqueous solution. And the geometry of the vessel containing it matters, too -- spherical versus cylindrical changes the mean path length for thermal neutrons.

    Hence the second nuclear criticality accident at Tokaimura in 1999.

    1104:

    Suitable light nuclei for bouncing neutrons off include hydrogen, deuterium and carbon, so nuclear reactors usually have the fuel rods surrounded by water, heavy water or graphite, and this substance is called the "moderator".

    Wouldn't deuterated hydrocarbons (whether liquid or solid) be even better?

    1105:

    A secondary aspect of this is that the critical mass of a fissile material is lower in aqueous solution. And the geometry of the vessel containing it matters, too -- spherical versus cylindrical changes the mean path length for thermal neutrons.

    Hence the second nuclear criticality accident at Tokaimura in 1999.

    With a huge side order of greed and stupidity mixed into the situation.

    1106:

    My understanding is "no, because of decomposition products".

    1107:

    ilya187 @ 1104:

    Suitable light nuclei for bouncing neutrons off include hydrogen, deuterium and carbon, so nuclear reactors usually have the fuel rods surrounded by water, heavy water or graphite, and this substance is called the "moderator".

    Wouldn't deuterated hydrocarbons (whether liquid or solid) be even better?

    Does Norsk Hydro sell bottled water?

    1108:

    Not enough different from heavy water to be worth the hassle. The amount of energy the neutron loses per collision drops off rapidly as the mass of the nucleus it collides with goes up, so in a hydrogen-based moderator, whatever element you're using to bind the hydrogen at a useful density can be regarded as basically "not there" from an energy-scarfing point of view, and the difference between carbon and oxygen doesn't amount to much. The other important factor is how good the other element is at not absorbing neutrons, and in that respect oxygen is even better at being "not there" than carbon is.

    (Deuterium is already only half as good an energy-scarfer as ordinary hydrogen is, but on the other hand it's much more than twice as good at not absorbing neutrons, so although it takes more collisions to slow the neutron down it's still less likely to get eaten on the way. Hence it's the best moderating element overall, and you can even just about make a natural-uranium slow-neutron breeder with it.)

    Hydrocarbons certainly work, and lumps of solid polythene are easy to handle for lab experiments. But it's nearly always the case that water's convenient properties for heat transfer, non-flammability etc make it a much more practical choice than hydrocarbons.

    Also, once you have got your deuterium separated from the ordinary hydrogen, you get a much higher yield combining it with oxygen (if it isn't already) than you do making perdeuterated hydrocarbons with it.

    1109:

    Yes, that's one of my etcs that make water more practical. The only possible decomposition products are gases, so they automatically separate out and leave the properties of the moderator unchanged. And it's trivial to recombine them and get back the same material you started with.

    1110:

    Indeed, fissile solutions are accidents waiting to happen in all kinds of different ways, especially when you include chemical and physical processes and careless buggers pouring shit into the wrong tank. Like...

    "Hence the second nuclear criticality accident at Tokaimura in 1999."

    (reads article) ...like all the things they were doing there. Fuck on a stick, I'm not surprised it went kerbloomf.

    1111:

    (...wonders if "Tokaimura" is Japanese for "mouth of the river Miwl"...)

    1112:

    But just how much Chlorine do we need in the moderator pool?

    1113:

    Found flyer advertising it at NASFiC /Pemmi-con.ca

    1114:

    »Hence the second nuclear criticality accident at Tokaimura in 1999.«

    LANL and Sandia has both published extensively on criticality accidents over the years in very accessible form, because they want everybody and the cleaning lady to understand it.

    One of the ones I remember reading about was where somebody got a "mostly harmless" exposure because they walked down a corridor, because there where an inadvisable configuration on the other side of the concrete wall. Took them a long time to figure that one out.

    1115:

    My father wore a dosimeter badge for about 30 years. He never had it show anything worth noting.

    A pawn shop in the area had a non trivial amount of gold show up that they bought. A while later the FBI checked out all the pawn shops in the area and asked to scan their gold purchases in the last while, especially non jewelry ones. They got a hit on one shop's purchases. The shop pointed them to who sold it while saying well it might have been a bit suspicious someone bringing in that much but we shrugged it off. Turns out the sellers were some lab workers where gold was collected from the UF6 plant in trace amounts then shipped off to the government periodically. Of course it had slightly higher radiation readings than most bullion on the market. So when the collections at the plant went down the FBI started looking for gold in the area with elevated radiation levels.

    1116:

    Everyone seems to make strenuous efforts to use as few columns as possible, but be extravagantly wasteful in their prolific use of superfluous rows.

    Partly I think that's because inevitably you're going to have a lot of short lines (including length=0) so optimising for 10% very very very very long lines doesn't make sense. Better to optimise for the common case and assume that programmers are smart enough to have multiple edit windows across their wide monitor (because modern LCDs get bigger than you really want tipped sideways, and often their viewing angles are bollix when rotated as well)

    These days I habitually run 2.5 columns, with the tree/nav half column then two full edit windows using ~160 character margins. Which is nice for C-ish languages as you can have the header file on the right and main file on the left. Likewise multiline tabs at the top so even 100's of files open works nicely. On a 4k monitor it's all legible and I can blow the text up to have ~80 lines of it in 14pt font. My cow-orker runs 10pt or something equally squinty but also uses a text editor instead of an IDE so there's obviously many problems in the thinking department there.

    Also, even Sublime Text expects you to plug in a pretty-printer alongside your compiler(s) and linter(s). Rust is good in the sense that it's all one big bundle of joy, but these days most c-ish linters will also whine about bad formatting (lines too long, suspicious indenting etc). IIRC clang-tidy also whines about code constructs it disapproves of so there's crossover the other way as well. I run cppcheck manually and clangs linter is built in to the IDE, as well as having its own code formatter and a (horribly buggy) option to run clang-tidy instead.

    Meanwhile I have taken time out of my day to have a look at someone else's Delphi code and I'm mentally stuck at my first build of their code saying "200 warnings, 360 hints". "just fix the problem we told you about" they say, "ignore all the other problems" they say. "fuck you and the pile of shit you wallow in every day" is apparently not something my boss is willing to pass back to the shit-wallowers. Bob help us all.

    1117:

    Deeply stupid fission power question: has anyone ever proposed a fission powered generator that uses ionizing radiation to generate a charge differential, and used that differential to create an electric current or otherwise do work?

    I’m pretty sure the answer is no, but I’m ignorant, so I figured I’d ask.

    Reason I’m asking is that cells normally generate a charge differential across a membrane to do stuff and move stuff using proteins attached to the membrane. Add that to ionizing radiation, and…?

    1118:

    US patent 20110298332.

    1119:

    Generating a charge differential across a "membrane" by using incident radiation is basically what ordinary solar cells do, with the membrane being a semiconductor junction. You can make that work straightforwardly when the photon energies are only a couple of eV or so; the distance they penetrate into the material before their energy gets converted into a separation of charges is reasonably well defined, so you just have to put the semiconductor junction layer at the depth thus derived for the separated charges to be caught by it. And the photon energy is close to the semiconductor bandgap so the energy is converted in a reasonably efficient way.

    With the enormously larger photon energies you get from nuclear processes none of this really works. Each photon has enough energy to separate a few million charges, but its wavelength is much too short to be directly useful for that, which also makes it highly penetrating. So instead of interacting only within a conveniently thin layer near the surface, it goes right through the bulk of the material missing nearly everything but leaving a trail of separated charges and heat where it does skate down the side of something. Most of them just go straight through without doing anything, and the efficiency of energy capture from the ones that do do something is rotten.

    You do get separated charges, but they are dispersed randomly through the body of the material, so you can't set up a membrane-like structure to collect them and bring them out unless you can make a three-dimensional membrane to separate things in four dimensions. You have to collect them on a molecular scale, which basically means you get your captured energy as chemistry rather than as electricity in the normal sense.

    This is how that gamma-eating fungus that lives underneath Chernobyl works. It uses some pigment related to melanin, not to capture gamma rays - it doesn't - but because the same molecular electronic characteristics that make a pigment coloured also tend to make it good at capturing the energy of any separated charges that happen to be hanging around, as some kind of state of chemical excitation. This differs from how chlorophyll works in that with chlorophyll the molecule actually captures the photon and excites itself off it directly within itself, whereas the fungus pigment is just scarfing up bits of separated charge created by random interactions in the bulk of the material. But once they've got themselves excited it's basically the same thing from that point on for both.

    The collection efficiency is fucking awful, but each gamma photon has craploads of energy, so the fungus still manages to get the tiny bit it needs. It would be completely useless for power generation though, and the way gammas behave there's no way to make it better by any useful amount. Plain thermocouples are much better than it ever could be, and are ever so much easier too.

    It's slightly less not worth thinking about to do a charge separation kind of thing on a macroscopic scale, by having the fissioning material and a collector plate as the two electrodes of what you might call a continuously-self-charging capacitor, and discharging it continuously into your load. The trouble is the current would be minute, while the voltage would be in the hundreds of MV. So you'd have to build it as a gigantic structure out in space just to have any hope at all of being able to insulate it, and then you have the problem of transforming the output down to an actually usable voltage. Perhaps something a bit like a Wimshurst machine working backwards might help with that bit. But I can't envisage any situation where it might have any actual advantage over any other means of power generation, including lighting farts, unless you were a Culture citizen who was bored and thought it worth doing for shits and giggles.

    1120:

    Thanks for that. It’s basically what Pigeon described, I think

    1121:

    Thanks, that makes sense for photons.

    Same story for beta decay, I take it?

    1122:

    Hey, I use a text editor. I can load multiple files into it and I can run multiple instances of it. Along with as many other xterms as I need. Usually with the windows overlapping however is convenient for the code in question, using mouse-over-to-focus and focus-does-not-mean-raise, none of this clicking in things and changing the order of overlap shit.

    I agree that somewhere around 160 columns is convenient. Not much remains easy to follow on a single line by the time you get that long. What I'm talking about is the slavish insistence on keeping everything under 80, which is basically too short, and especially with verbose identifiers frequently causes things to be confusingly split onto multiple lines when they would be a lot easier to read all in a single row; and at the same time using a style which puts every curly bracket on a line by itself, uses three or four lines for a five-word comment, and other vertically wasteful practices. Even with a very tall window you still don't get enough of the program on the screen at a time to follow the logic through a bunch of related functions without having to scroll, and it's a pain in the arse for my very two-dimensional non-sequential way of reading text.

    "Meanwhile I have taken time out of my day to have a look at someone else's Delphi code and I'm mentally stuck at my first build of their code saying "200 warnings, 360 hints"."

    Sounds like about half the Linux packages I build from source. Warning spam uses more lines of output than anything else in the build system sometimes. Nearly all of it is noise and recognisable as such just from the warning text, and nearly always when I track down one of the few instances that do look genuinely dodgy they turn out not to be when looked at in detail. And then there are the library headers several layers of dependencies away from the actual package in question, which contain a single instance of some idiom that gcc has been altered to moan about since they were written, so you get the same warning repeated in all of the 80% of the files that #include it. I tend to ignore them unless I find some specific reason to suspect they're related to real breakage, basically in sort of self-defence.

    1123:

    Seem to recall mention of law enforcement radios in the LAUNDRY FILES at some point; if I recall correctly, yhis may be of interest.

    Three Dutch security analysts discovered vulnerabilities—five in total—in a European radio standard called TETRA (Terrestrial Trunked Radio), which is used in radios made by Motorola, Damm, Hytera, and others. The standard has been used in radios since the ’90s, but the flaws remained unknown because encryption algorithms used in TETRA were kept secret until now.

    https://www.wired.com/story/tetra-radio-encryption-backdoor

    1124:

    With the exception that a handful of nuclides, particularly tritium, have such low beta decay energies (tritium is around 10-15keV IIRC) that it actually is possible (if rarely useful) to handle the voltages available with straightforward everyday methods and materials.

    1125:

    (agh)

    ...handle the voltages available from a self-charging-capacitor type arrangement...

    1126:

    https://phys.org/news/2018-06-prototype-nuclear-battery-power.html

    Betavoltaic batteries are a real thing. And modern manufacturing + ultra low power electronics might have made them sort of practical. Now we just need those electronics to last the same 20,000 years as the "battery" does...

    1127:

    I independently invented the idea many years ago, but I was far from surprised to find that it was already in use.

    (My concept was pretty much the same as the Moseley 1913 one - I didn't actually get to try it out though.)

    1128:

    Where did you get 20,000 years from? Nickel-63 has a half-life of 100 years, it is right there in the article.

    1129:

    You did notice that C14 can be used? Half life 5,700 years. No doubt even longer lived isotopes will be possible for thus.

    1130:

    What I'm talking about is the slavish insistence on keeping everything under 80, which is basically too short

    80 columns is a legacy of IBM punched card format (one punched card per line!). Which in turn is a legacy of the Hollerith census tabulator machines patented in 1889 to process the 1890 US census. The IBM Card with 80 columns dates to 1928 and as of the mid-1950s about 30% of IBM's revenue came from sales of paper products, specifically those pieces of cardboard!

    Indeed, IBM mainframe hardware is still designed around an abstract model of i/o that assumes data comes in punched-card-format records. (Okay, so they can run all sorts of other stuff these days -- there's a reason mainframes are still a billions-a-year revenue source for IBM -- but IBM punched cards still dictate your default character terminal size.)

    1131:

    Righ. But I take issue with 80 columns being too short, and 160 convenient. I have just looked at three pre-computer books, and they had 50-60 characters a line, which is a good maximum if you don't want to get the next line wrong when reading. Originally for the sequence number reason, but continued for the clarity reason, many of us old guard set up editors etc. for a maximum of 72. My experience is that long lines are a Right Pain even if you have terminals that are wide enough, not least because a hell of a lot of work involved having two documents visible (NOT just on the desktop) side-by-side.

    Note that I am NOT supporting the equal lunacy of having the average line length under 20 characters.

    There just isn't a good solution to the problem of a single, indivisible block of code or prose that exceeds about 4,000 characters. Good programmers and authors try to avoid such things, but sometimes they can't.

    Well-designed languages have continuation rules that make splitting long lines easy and clear (even English prose does), and ridiculously long identifiers that are used in complex syntax are a stupidity. Ones that occur only in contexts that they are nearly the only thing on the line are different, but identifiers of over 60 characters are a pain in themselves.

    1132:

    "IBM punched card format (one punched card per line!)"

    Have you ever written any FORTRAN?

    1133:

    But I take issue with 80 columns being too short ... many of us old guard set up editors etc. for a maximum of 72.

    I also grew up on cards then character based terminals. Cost was a huge driver in terminal screen size. More than 80 and the character size had to get smaller or the screen size bigger. Smaller meant a LOT of people would not be able to read the display at a typical distance. Larger meant more cost. Plus less left over desk space and more to ship and ....

    This was back when characters on the display were basically a 5x7 or 6x8 set of dots. Maybe a bit more. Nothing at all like our the medium to high resolution displays we have now where on a decent setup you can't even see the dots.

    As to 72, I have to wonder if you came up with that "organically" or it just worked well as so many IBM and other card based systems in the 60s and 70s used the last 8 of the 80s as white space. Mostly used to punch in sequence numbers so a deck could be re-assembled when dropped.

    I spent a decade in the 70s and 80s looking at displays. Trying to find better/cheaper. 24/25x80 ruled 99% of the world back then. At least in countries with Latin lettering. I know the rest of the world was unhappy with their choices most of that time.

    1134:

    Since I am currently querying my own novel, I had to think about this, too (it passes). I found some agents alternatively are okay with the piece passing the Mako Mori Test, i.e. a female character having her own independent arc that doesn't just support the male arc; I guess to cover those cases where the specifics of setting etc. make passing Bechdel hard/impossible. It's been a long time since I read the early Laundry novels, but I dimly remember they would pass MM despite Bob's 1st person narrative. (Might be mixing them up, though.)

    1135:

    I thought I explained. Yes, that was the origin of the convention, but the reason we continued using it long after sequence numbers and indeed cards became obsolete was for the ergonomic reason I gave. Note that the UK originally was more paper tape than cards, and advanced sites had converted to VDUs by the late 1970s.

    The point here is that 50-60 was the conventional width for prose, but we found that was a bit restrictive for code. Plus, of course, most of the early VDUs were limited to 80 characters, as you say, and many of them (and many editors) mishandled lines that filled the last character on the screen. But the exact value was simply a legacy, and not everyone preferred the same value.

    1136:

    80 etc columns? You mean... surely not... are you people still using fixed width character fonts? Damn, I haven’t had to suffer that nonsense in 40 years.

    Those dead-text languages just don’t get any better.

    1137:

    Have you ever had to read (and, worse, proof-read) text where the text is not always prose and every character is critical (e.g. computer programs) or tables of characters (usually, but not always, digits) displayed in a variable-width font?

    Parentheses and 'I' are particular menaces, and you may note that even fixed-width fonts usually have all digits the same width.

    1138:

    Books are different, though. Some books on Project Gutenberg are set up to imitate that print convention, with the text in a narrow column 50-60 characters wide down the middle of the page. I find them a pain, compared to the others (the majority) which use the full width of the window, and when I come across one I invariably seek out the CSS rule that is restricting the width and delete it. But if I was reading the same book as a paper book, and had the choice between one copy with conventional narrow layout and another copy printed on wide pages to imitate one on PG using the full width of the window, I would just as invariably choose the narrow one.

    I probably wasn't very clear about line lengths in program text. I'm not advocating writing code with lines that regularly go over 80 characters. I'm just saying that for the (usually) roughly 5-10% of lines that naturally come out longer than 80 characters, it's fine to let them be longer than 80 characters. It made sense to be fanatical about splitting them up when there was nothing wider than 80 characters to read them on, but now that there is so rarely a need to read them on something that doesn't readily do more than 80 characters, it doesn't.

    On the other hand it is very rare for a line to naturally come out at more than very roughly 160 characters, and it's usually ceased to be readable anyway by the time it gets that long, so that is a "convenient" length in the sense that it arises from the properties of the thing you're actually working on, rather than being a hangover from former limitations of the hardware you're working on it with. Most lines that get over 80 characters don't get over it by very much, anyway; 160 is just a reflection of the shape of the tail.

    Splitting a line converts one line into at least three - first bit, continuation, blank line to separate it from the next line so you don't see them as three logical lines rather than two. In functions that are only 10-20 or so lines to begin with, that's quite a significant reduction in the vertical information density. Over a whole source file, the combined effect of all such reductions - both from that cause and of other kinds - quickly adds up to a great deal more scrolling up and down and forgetting what was in the bit that's just scrolled off and not noticing that you've scrolled into the wrong bit of code because it looks nearly the same as the adjacent bit that you did want... etc... than I like to deal with.

    I'm not entirely clear what you mean by "having two documents visible (NOT just on the desktop) side-by-side". Surely if it's "on the desktop" but not "visible" all you have to do is move/raise the window so that it is visible, and unless you've got a really titchy screen you can easily have several windows side by side. Or do you mean "visible side-by-side in a single window of some application"? In my case the arsability limit is exceeded merely by the idea of using that feature in pretty well anything I can recall coming across that has it, before any characteristic of the files' content comes into the picture.

    1139:

    On typewriters that were designed to use an 80-character line width, 72 is where the bell would ding.

    1140:

    "are you people still using fixed width character fonts?"

    WTF else would I use for program code? And what reason could I have for wanting to torture myself thus?

    Variable-width fonts are fine for "literature", in the broad sense of basically "stuff you read as ordinary language". But for nearly everything that uses characters to represent something other than ordinary language, fixed width is the only sane choice. Often this even includes things like batch codes and part numbers.

    The "book limit" of 50-60 characters per line is an average - roughly how many characters of the distribution of widths found in ordinary text the variable-width font usually gets into a given column size.

    1141:

    No. I meant exactly what I said. The entire text in both windows needs to be visible simultaneously, because I am comparing them. Many, MANY people have the same requirement. Alternately raising them (or moving them) is both a Real Pain and seriously reduces the reliability of comparison. Until very recently, screens of above FHD were fiendishly expensive, (allowing for the frame) that allows for characters only 10 pixels wide, and damn few fonts are clear with less than that (*). It was a Real Pain with HD screens and completely impractical before that.

    The physical screen size is a lesser matter, but still very important for people with fading eyesight, which includes most of us old fogies. But 27" is enough for 2x80 characters - though I would want at least 42" for 2x160 characters.

    Incidentally, on most typewriters, the bell position was settable.

    (*) Yes, I know that it CAN be done - I have done it - but it stopped being feasible to make applications use my own fonts a few decades back.

    1142:

    Sorry - technically 11 pixels wide, but few fonts have that option.

    1143:

    Pigeon @ 1132
    I HAVE Long, long ago ....

    1144:

    Well, it would be :-) FORTRAN was replaced by Fortran (which doesn't have the 72-character limit) over 30 years ago ....

    1145:

    Heteromeles @ 1117:

    Deeply stupid fission power question: has anyone ever proposed a fission powered generator that uses ionizing radiation to generate a charge differential, and used that differential to create an electric current or otherwise do work?

    I’m pretty sure the answer is no, but I’m ignorant, so I figured I’d ask.

    Reason I’m asking is that cells normally generate a charge differential across a membrane to do stuff and move stuff using proteins attached to the membrane. Add that to ionizing radiation, and…?

    (IF I understand what you're asking) I think some version of that has been used to power deep space probes:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_battery#Non-thermal_conversion

    1146:

    Oh, I see the problem now. Your idea of a reasonable size screen is something over twice as big as I would want for the same purpose. So you're still running into a problem that ceased to exist for me something like 20 years ago.

    My current screen is 48 centimetres on the diagonal (measured, which probably means they call it 50 or something), and it's already wide enough that there's a strip down the right hand side that I mostly don't use. My viewing distance is limited to <40cm because I can't focus on anything further away than that and I refuse to wear specs indoors, and any larger screen would subtend an angle too uncomfortably greater than I want taken up in my visual field.

    1147:

    Eh? The physical size of the screen is NOT the most critical aspect - my viewing distance isn't much further, but I have to wear glasses to get even that far away. I could use a smaller screen (and do on my laptop, which is c. 35 cm diagonally), but it would require me to get closer and take my glasses off. That's mainly due to old age, and my 5+ dioptres of short sight.

    But the REAL problem is the resolution. As I said, few fonts are clear if they are less than 10 pixels wide, and that means a minimum of about 1700 horizontally - i.e. FHD. To view two documents 160 characters wide would need at least 3400 horizontally (i.e. UHD), which has only JUST become available at an even remotely affordable price.

    You simply cannot distinguish all 90+ ASCII characters without straining (and almost always not even then) at 5 pixels wide in any standard desktop font, and that's all you get with FHD. And trying to do that with its predecessor (WXDA) was just plain silly.

    1148:

    My current screen is 48 centimetres on the diagonal

    Knowing baselines in these conversations does matter.

    In cm all the displays I and others I know use are all either 60cm or 68cm.

    1149:

    What do you mean by a "standard desktop font"? I use the same old DEC "terminal" font that's been what you get in an xterm since before Linux, at 5 pixels per character (6 including spacing), with the same old xterm configuration that displays characters in the same way as an old text terminal did, white on black with pixels either on or off and none of this fuzzy antialiasing shit. I find that just fine.

    On the other hand, when using something that does display text in a fancy-arsed manner, such as a browser, I would agree that 10px character width is around or below the comfortable minimum.

    I'm vaguely aware that Linux distributions these days usually do use some fancy-arsed fuzzy-shit xterm configuration that makes me go "wtf kind of an abortion is that?" when I see it. I vaguely remember some update doing something of the kind to me once, a long time ago, but it wasn't able to stop me unfucking it and putting it back to how it was. Or else they use some replacement for an xterm which is so inflexibly designed to do fancy-arsed shit that you can't unfuck it. I think it's daft, because it needs a considerably larger window and font size to present the same sized chunk of text in a legible manner.

    1150:

    Pigeon - I bet you would have loved the CDC 6000 operator console. Each character drawn by the electron beam (caligraphic display), full addressability was 512x512, but you could get a lot more text on the screen than that would imply. Did I mention there were two displays? :)

    It is a shame that there are no decent photographs of it on the Web.

    1151:

    To view two documents 160 characters wide would need at least 3400 horizontally (i.e. UHD), which has only JUST become available at an even remotely affordable price.

    I was pleasantly surprised at how much of a difference more pixel density makes to readability. Modern sub-pixel rendering also helps a lot, and because we share screens fairly regularly and that disables the sub-pixel tricks we're regularly reminded of how much difference that makes.

    There's a gulf betwee retired folk buying screens out of their own money and people like me where the cost of even the five-odd displays I have is such a tiny part of the cost of staff that I'm not sure my employer knows or cares how many I have. In Australia a UHD monitor is under $500 (about 350 pounds, euros or $US) and my employer pays about $15,000 a month to have me around. The cost of arguing with me can easily exceed the cost of just buying the damn monitor(s).

    Also, three widescreen monitors side by side, each ~70cm diagonally, is too wide. I end up not looking at one of them far too much. To the point where I use the laptop sitting under one of the two I use as my "third screen" for work chat and random internet stuff. Having a UHD screen with a smaller portrait screen each side works better for me except when, as now, I have two virtual machines running simultaneously because I'm developing on Windows and Linux at the same time (the programs are supposed to talk to each other)

    1152:

    What do you mean by a "standard desktop font"? I use the same old DEC "terminal" font

    Modern fonts are marvellous, there's a lot of work been done on readability and so on. I occasionally dig into the fine print to get a better programming font but generally revert back to the stock ones after a while. The hassle of making sure the right font is on all the machines I care about exceeds the benefit of being just slightly better than stock.

    I had to check but I'm running standard Fedora 12 point monospoace in my terminals, "JetBrains mono" 14 point in Clion, but default 10 point font in sublime text (both OS's). They all look roughly the same size. I get ~80 lines in the IDE vs 10 in the editor and 110 in the terminal. Affected by decorations at the top of the screen, less in the terminal and editor than the IDE.

    1153:

    http://www.livingcomputers.org/getattachment/65c99fa4-1a5f-40df-8a2b-523667542f4f/attachment.aspx

    Could do with being bigger, but I get the general idea. I have seen a mainframe vector graphics workstation and that was pretty impressive.

    1154:

    Why, yes, I have had to read and proof code, though only for 50 years so I’m just a newbie I guess. Fixed width fonts are not a solution to anything in my opinion.

    And yes, I’ve read (and written) software in BASIC, FORTRAN 4, Pascal, Modula, APL, Prolog, Lisp, C, Java, JavaScript, Python, PHP, Perl, assorted assemblers, and obviously Smalltalk.

    All of them read better in proportional fonts, though nothing on Earth will ever make java or PHP acceptable. I’ve used displays ranging from 320x200 monochrome to over 6k, as well as virtual systems with effectively infinite size.

    1155:

    1152 your para 2 - The delta point size you quote is 14 - 10 = 4 points. That is 4/72 inches or one eighteenth of an inch. Call that 0.0556" (not exact but close enough for government work). I make that about 0.13 degrees of arc difference in character size on a monitor 24" from your eyes.

    OTOH it will at 10 point font offer you an entire row of text per vertical inch more than 14 point font will!

    1156:

    Been a few years since I've watched a good font fight.

    Now to make it a good fight lets have everyone with a slightly different meaning of the terms, font, point, pixel, resolution, etc....

    1157:

    These days there's also screen scaling and pixel density to take into account. I'm not sure what the specifics are for my setup but I remember futzing around with them when setting up both the host machine and the virtual machine. I vagurely recall Windows deciding that big screen = crank up the magnification to make the scroll bars and window borders etc bigger. Which is not what I want.

    My approach is more "what's a good size to read. Cool. How much do I get?" rather than thinking I could get more on if I just sat closer or bought stronger glasses. Albeit I have big-ish screens and lots of pixels so I have implicitly done the "get more on" step already.

    One coworker got a curved widescreen "4k" monitor that is effectly two FHD screens side by side - it's 4000x1000 pixels rather than UHD 4000x2000. He works from home now but the monitor is still at work, so I suspect it seemed like a good idea at the time rather than being a giant leap forward in usefulness.

    1158:

    Pigeon @ 1147
    Two linked screens, each approx 60cm on the diagonal - & we are thinking of installing a third ...

    "Pterry - why have you got Seven screens?"
    TP: "Because I haven't got room for Eight!"

    1159:

    Anything you can get on a standard desktop system, without jumping through hoops. Yes, I used to use xterm for that reason, back in the days when most terminal emulators (including it) were seriously crap, but I stopped years ago when other terminal emulators caught up with its legibility. It never was particularly readable ('I', 'l' and '1' being the worst offenders, as usual), but was once upon a time the best available. The font used for commenting on this blog (NOT the one for displaying) is much better,

    But, as I said originally, you can't display two 160 character wide windows on a FHD screen EVEN with your minimal font. 320 x 6 = 1920, which leaves no room for the frame. Running frameless (a) adds legibility problems of its own and (b) needs some fairly serious X-hacking. I could do that, though most people couldn't, but several decades ago (after some months hacking X) I swore that I would never descend into that cess pit again.

    And, no, it's not just browsers that use fonts of their choice, but pretty well EVERY document supplied as a PDF, and a very high proportion of the documents most people want to read come on that form. Yes, you CAN restrict those to about 80 characters on a line, and allow plain text to be longer, but reading one window in a 10 pixel font and another in a 6 pixel font is also prone to error.

    1160:

    XIIIIIIYIIIIIZ vs XIIIIIYIIIIIZ vs XIIIIIYIIIIIIZ

    Not to say HIHIHIHIHlHlHIHIBHIH

    Let alone space counting, which can be quite important

    I have spent a significant proportion of my life trying to catch such errors, and getting people to correct them when they have failed to do so. And, in most cases, the use of variable width fonts was the cause. You may find code in variable width fonts attractive, but it's a recipe for errors.

    I have also been inflicted with having to read tables in a variable width font, and it's not fun.

    1161:

    »You did notice that C14 can be used? Half life 5,700 years.«

    One interesting factoid about synthetic diamonds is that they are not "forever", precisely because C14 is radioactive.

    1162:

    »But, as I said originally, you can't display two 160 character wide windows on a FHD screen EVEN with your minimal font. 320 x 6 = 1920, which leaves no room for the frame. Running frameless (a) adds legibility problems of its own and (b) needs some fairly serious X-hacking.«

  • My Lenovo T14s has a 3840x2160 LCD panel and running X11 in that resolution is not very usable, so I have it configured for 1920x1080

  • Frameless on X11 is trivial: Just dont run a window manager which adds a frame.

  • The real problem with modern screens is that they are all landscape.

  • 1163:

    »XIIIIIIYIIIIIZ vs XIIIIIYIIIIIZ vs XIIIIIYIIIIIIZ

    Not to say HIHIHIHIHlHlHIHIBHIH«

    How many times have I told you to stop writing programs in INTERCAL ?!

    1164:

    I tried that, once, a long time ago; while applications MAY now support it, a horrendous number don't run even under xfce. But, maybe, in which case, he could JUST run two 160 character 7-bit ASCII windows on FHD, but many people would find that causing eyestrain, and others would object to the lack of 8-bit support.

    1165:

    There’s this thing about UIs that provide proportional spaced fonts ; they can also use fixed space fonts in places where it might make sense. And choosing a sensible font that makes sure a capital i does not look like an l or a | is quite sensible too.

    This isn’t new stuff. It doesn’t require vast computing resources. The folk at PARC sorted it in 1970 on a computer with (significantly) less power than the ARM cpu in that USB memory stick in your drawer

    1166:

    Nice in theory.

    Firstly, how do you propose to determine 'where they make sense', if you are denying that the requirement that any character is (more-or-less) equally likely, and every character is critical? For example, in an arbitrary programming language? That's beyond state-of-the-art AI, even now.

    And, while I agree that fonts that confuse 'I', 'l' and '1' etc. are abominations, there are two issues:

    One is the situation that you CAN'T always control the font - not merely is it often fixed by the document or application, even those that allow it to be set often permit only some fonts. That was part of my remark about X hacking - I spent FAR too long fighting such programs back in the WXGA days. FHD meant that I could give that up, with a HUGE sigh of relief.

    The other is that I did some testing of this specific issue, both with clear fonts and with unclear ones - i.e. I displayed the same character sequences with both variable and fixed spacing. The fixed spacing made it much easier to distinguish individual characters, though (as has been known since time immemorial) variable spacing makes it easier to read prose.

    Counting repeated characters, characters with adjacent verticals, and combinations like 'rn' were all tricky. If you read Ebooks that are the result of scanning, you will see how often 'rn' is misread as 'm' (and vice versa), and how often the proof-readers miss it. Indeed, with my 75 year old eyesight, I fairly often make that mistake with variable width fonts.

    1167:

    The Great Martian War 1913-1917 Full Documentary

    Brilliant faux documentary about the Martian invasion of Victorian Europe using black and white photos and film along with "interviews" with old veterans and military "historians".

    World War I trench warfare, biplanes and early tanks vs. Martian tripods with heat rays.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aj5whlRTYs

    Very cool.

    1168:

    The Great Martian War 1913-1917 Full Documentary

    Brilliant faux documentary about the Martian invasion of Victorian Europe using black and white photos and film along with "interviews" with old veterans and military "historians".

    World War I trench warfare, biplanes and early tanks vs. Martian tripods with heat rays.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aj5whlRTYs

    Very cool.

    1169:

    1133:

    I spent a decade in the 70s and 80s looking at displays. Trying to find better/cheaper. 24/25x80 ruled 99% of the world back then. At least in countries with Latin lettering.

    In the 1980s anything based on the BBC Micro - including the Torch C Series business machines running a CP/M clone - had 32x80.

    This was back when characters on the display were basically a 5x7 or 6x8 set of dots. Maybe a bit more.

    8x8. And you could change the appearance of any character in the character set independently.

    1170:

    It depends where you put the brackets :) I run a window manager that doesn't add a frame. It adds title/handle bars at top and bottom, but it doesn't put anything up the sides. So indeed if I put two xterms adjacent to each other with zero spacing, they appear to run into each other - which does come in handy sometimes for purposes vaguely related to this discussion, but the main reason I have it like that is to have only the necessary facilities to adjust/identify windows, with the absolute minimum of extra crud that serves no purpose.

    It's also only a window manager; it neither does its own "desktop environment" nor has one running on top of it. Because the entirety - in all its grotesque hugeness - of a "desktop environment" also falls under the category of "extra crud that serves no purpose".

    The applications don't care, or even notice. I can kill the window manager altogether, and all the window decorations disappear but the applications carry on without noticing anything's happened. I don't, because it makes things a pain in the arse, but nothing breaks or stops working if I do do it.

    However, we seem to have got lost somewhere. The original proposition was "80 character hard limit on lines of program text" vs. "not worrying about lines going over 80, but recognising that if they grow as big as very roughly 160 they have become impractical", on the basis that a hard limit at 80 too often results in "vertical space usage spam" to the detriment of overall legibility, and in the context of the usual shape of the distribution of program line lengths where most of them don't even approach 80 anyway. Somehow it has now grown to include "comparing arbitrary text (implicitly with a much more "book-like" distribution of line lengths) presented in arbitrary formats by arbitrary applications (including PDFs in something that reads PDFs)", which is well outside the original scope...

    And we've still got the anomaly that you want a 27" (so ~69cm) monitor to compare two chunks of code at 80 character width side by side, while I can compare three chunks of width 80 side by side on a 48cm monitor (ie. my current one, 1440 pixels, 48cm diagonal) - so a 32cm monitor would do me for only two chunks. It looks to me that you want both more pixels per character (10 vs. 6), and a monitor more than twice as large (69cm vs. 32cm), than I do, for the same task, of comparing two chunks of 80-character-width program code side by side.

    Eyesight datum point, since I'm sure it must be down to something related: myopic, ~3d; accommodation range fucked; can't read with my specs on; I am beginning to need either a magnifier, or a bright enough light to stop my iris well down, to read the markings on surface-mount components.

    Lack of 8-bit support is just fine. Non-ASCII characters in program text are evil, and I'm used to them also being illegal; I deplore the alteration in the C standard that now allows them.

    X font handling: aaargh fucking arseholes, what a mess...

    "rn"/"m": I've been amused to see "modem" turn into "modern" somewhere in a chain of transcodings between speech, handwriting and typewriting. No computers involved at all :)

    "The font used for commenting on this blog" depends on your system. According to the CSS it's whatever the browser's default is for textarea elements. The other day I installed some totally unrelated library, which several steps down the dependency chain updated some already-installed fonts, and the next time I started the browser all the default fonts had changed. The textarea font used to be something that looked a bit like a more rounded version of OCR-A; now it's something that looks like an Epson dot-matrix printer in maximum super-duper quality mode.

    1171:

    "The real problem with modern screens is that they are all landscape."

    I've been moaning about this for years.

    I remember shortly before the IBM PC caught on someone brought out a word processor with a vertically-oriented screen. The advertising was all about "our screen is the same way round as the paper" and how silly it was that every other system expected you to handle vertically-oriented documents on a horizontally-oriented screen. It's fairly obvious why the machine itself didn't catch on, but the idea jolly well deserved to.

    1172:

    The real problem with modern screens is that they are all landscape.

    I've not seen a mid to high end screen in over a decade that couldn't be rotated. And then tell the computer that it had been rotated.

    1173:

    "In the 1980s anything based on the BBC Micro - including the Torch C Series business machines running a CP/M clone - had 32x80."

    And a raw RGB output so you had a video bandwidth that could handle it. PAL couldn't really cope. If you were an institution, you bought a Microvitec RGB monitor in a square steel case.

    If you weren't... conveniently, the RGB output stages in the Beeb were capable of driving the cathode drivers in a typical TV directly, without any kind of additional buffering or level translation. So the modification was extremely simple...

    1174:

    Buggers the viewing angle though, cf. Moz @ 1116.

    Wouldn't have done with a CRT, but the vent slots were invariably in the wrong place to work like that.

    1175:

    1170

    Non-ASCII characters in program text are evil, and I'm used to them also being illegal; I deplore the alteration in the C standard that now allows them.

    A very naïve point of view.

    Why can't my colleagues use words in their own languages for variable names? Particularly if the concept doesn't have a direct conversion to English. It's a form of discrimination not totally unlike the one that started this comment chain. I'd use stronger words but I don't want OGH to chastise me.

    (We did put in a rather clunky mechanism to allow all characters to be used even if your keyboard didn't handle them - the "\u" notation.)

    (Yes, I was one of the people who added this to C99.)

    1176:

    Meanwhile ....
    How much of this is bollocks & is any of it true or, possibly even valid? - See also the Grauniad & other news sources?

    IF: true ...
    THEN: f-t-l problem, yes?
    ELSE: It's a collection of very convincing fakes - for what purpose?
    OR: Something else entirely?

    1177:

    (We did put in a rather clunky mechanism to allow all characters to be used even if your keyboard didn't handle them - the "\u" notation.)

    And some of us very much appreicate that, because every now and then our code passes through something that very much does not like utf-8. I have a clean build chain now, but for a while it was really annoying.

    We only support English, Italian and Greek in our user interface but it is so much easier just being able to have the UI translations readable in a file that your compiler can use than having a separate encoding step. Even with automated builds it's one less source of bugs, and being able to flip the UI language at runtime is a gift.

    1178:

    Why can't my colleagues use words in their own languages for variable names?

    Because computers are only meant to be used in English. Why can't the rest of the world understand this.

    [snark off]

    Even in North America we Mericans quickly get to deal with ç plus all those Spanish and Portuguese letters not in the original ASCII 64 or 128.

    Fred Brooks used to say the most important decision / argument he won in the IBM 360 project was 8 bits. Per Fred, Gene Amdahl was adamant that computers only needed the ASCII 64 set as numbers were really all that mattered. Per Fred they had to go to Thomas Watson Jr to get a decision made. Fred won. Then we got EBCDIC. [eyeroll]

    1179:
    How much of this is bollocks & is any of it true or, possibly even valid?

    I've only skimmed today's witness statement (or whatever the yanks call it).

    It appears to be what we in the UK would call "hearsay evidence".

    I hope Congress will put this guy on the spot and insist he names names as his sources. Who told him about the non-earth biological samples? Who told him about reverse engineering alien technology?

    And then we put those individuals on the spot, and I suspect we'll find someone has been trolling the gullible.

    Just imagine Isambard Kingdom Brunel with Faraday as his scientific advisor trying to reverse engineer a crashed F16. And that's just a century and a half of human engineering development. Perhaps they could have done something with a Spitfire, but even then they'd struggle with the required metallurgy.

    1180:

    David L @ 1156:

    Been a few years since I've watched a good font fight.

    Now to make it a good fight lets have everyone with a slightly different meaning of the terms, font, point, pixel, resolution, etc....

    http://xoverit.blogspot.com/2014/03/100-typewriter-typefaces-compared.html

    1181:

    Greg Tingey @ 1176:

    Meanwhile ....
    How much of this is bollocks & is any of it true or, possibly even valid? - See also the Grauniad & other news sources?

    IF: true ...
    THEN: f-t-l problem, yes?
    ELSE: It's a collection of very convincing fakes - for what purpose?

    The 'U' in UFO stands for UNIDENTIFIED ... IF there was any actual evidence of alien technology it wouldn't be unidentified.

    My guess in 99% bollocks. But that doesn't stop people who WANT TO BELIEVE from believing. Look at QAnon.

    1182:

    Because people who don't use that character set for everyday purposes anyway can't work with the code.

    If it uses characters that aren't on your keyboard then you can't type it. If you can't type it you can't work with it.

    (Any means of entry which does not consist solely of pressing the key which is labelled with the character you're trying to produce counts neither as "typing", nor as "usable".)

    It's not even guaranteed that your editor will be able to display it correctly. Or any other application for that matter. Greg has posted a comment @ 1101 containing non-ASCII characters which come out as a sequence of eight identical blank squares, even though the browser is using a font that was updated only a few days ago. Presumably they would be legal identifiers, but code using them as such would be unreadable, as well as untypable, to anyone except Greg.

    But going the other way, none of these problems can arise. If you can't handle ASCII characters then you can't work with C at all, so you'll never be in the position of wanting to use non-ASCII characters in C code in the first place. Compatibility in that direction is so necessary a precondition that it can be taken as a given.

    With ASCII-only code, everything just works, in both directions. But for someone who writes non-ASCII-only code, everything still works in the incoming direction, but in the outgoing direction the compatibility might be OK but might also turn out to be limited to their specific machine configuration. Therefore the change in standard has gone from something that works to something half of which is broken.

    It's not something that has anything at all to do with how the language itself works; it's a matter in the "user interface" class, the interface between the user and the language. Therefore the appropriate response is not to change the standard (in a way which breaks existing interfaces), but for the people who want to use a different interface to just go ahead and do so. For example an editor plugin that asciifies non-ASCII characters when the file is saved and does the reverse transformation when it is loaded, in the same way as one might have a plugin for editing gzipped files, and similarly analogues to zcat, zgrep etc. for use outside the editor. That way they still get to see what they want to see, but they're also still producing files that anyone else can work on, whether the anyone else can type in or display any random and possibly obscure alternative character set or not.

    It's a superficially similar matter to the one that started this sub-thread, but with the important difference that the main point of that discussion is basically that life would be extremely flat with nothing whatever to grumble at, and nobody is even remotely thinking of prescribing line lengths in the standard.

    1183:

    ...oh, yeah, and how could I forget: characters that look identical to each other but aren't really. If you allow character sets beyond ASCII, the number of possibilities for that point of confusion explodes violently.

    1184:

    If it uses characters that aren't on your keyboard then you can't type it. If you can't type it you can't work with it.

    That turns out not to be true in practice. I copy and paste stuff like the € and £ symbols relatively often because those currencies come up in chats like this. Never had a keyboard with either of them. Not to mention that I'm using a lot of lower case latin characters in this very comment despite my keyboard lacking those symbols.

    Having worked on multilingual code a fair bit I'm well used to having translations in files. The big change in the last 30-odd years is that now those tend to be easily viewable because they're UTF-8 or something else that "any" modern editor and OS can display. So I can open the file and say "it's all Greek to me" {boom tish} rather than openiong it, seeing line noise and just hoping for the best.

    Homoglyphs are kind of separate, and the Turkish I problem is why they can't necessarily be folded into code in a definitive way. But OTOH we have those already in ASCII/English as noted above - l1iIL0Oo :) So adding more by allowing us to write 👌 as well doesn't create a problem, just expands it. And the C compiler still DGAF, you either write "while" in lower case Latin characters or you get an error. WHILE is just as wrong as wh1le or whiΙe.

    1185:

    even then they'd struggle with the required metallurgy

    Earlier this week I saw a neat video on YouTube. Someone put a block of steel from a T-34 (or maybe the same type of steel) on a hydraulic press with a conical tool and slowly punched a hole in it. Then they put a block of modern armour steel in the press and broke the tool, leaving a small dimple in the modern armour.

    1186:

    Copying and pasting € once or twice in the occasional post is one thing, but imagine trying to write code like that...

    If I understand you correctly, your "translations in files" sound pretty much like the thing I was suggesting.

    The thing about homoglyphs is that the number of potentials for confusion is O(n^2) in the number of character sets. If you have both ASCII and Cyrillic characters occurring, especially in non-word forms, what is B or C or H? And if you have Greek as well...

    1187:

    (I seem to have the twitches on hitting Submit too soon today.)

    ...The character between "write" and "as well" in your final paragraph comes out as a blank square. Is this intentional?

    Final sentence: is what makes compatibility in one direction an inescapably necessary precondition. OTOH something like my editor plugin idea would let you write für(...;...;...) if you wanted and neither the C compiler nor anyone else working on the code would notice.

    1188:

    The point is more that you don't write code like that, you read it. Which is very different.

    I don't think anyone lets you write the actual coding language in whatever characters you like, even most non-English code I've seen is "for(i in set) // {foreign}" sort of thing, often it's the bits the programmer dreams up that have weird names.

    I've maintained code written by non-english-speakers and it can be done but it can be a PITA if they use a language I'm completely unfamiliar with for all the names. Often as bad maintaining minified javascript or machine-generated database schemas. But you can un-minify it if you get really desperate (ideally using a refactoring tool, but sed also works if you're careful). But more usually it's just functions called AllezEncriteur() or Schanplefagenwallendeutzenherger() where you just puzzle it out using a dictionary until it starts to make sense. No worse than the C(++) standard libraries in that sense (asnprint or cout anyone?)

    https://softwareengineering.stackexchange.com/questions/46386/what-is-programming-like-in-the-japanese-language

    1189:

    Because people who don't use that character set for everyday purposes anyway can't work with the code.

    I was writing code on a keyboard with ç on it in 1980. If you can't see this letter it is the C-cedilla.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%87

    This was in Toronto.

    And yes, it was used for everyday purposes.

    1190:

    The character between "write" and "as well" in your final paragraph comes out as a blank square

    Not intentional but that works to make my point in some ways. Missing glyphs can be a real problem, and display software that doesn't handle unicode is if anything worse.

    I've spent enough time testing broken code to have little patience for anything that needs to display unicode etc and doesn't. Someone browsing the web in ASCII-only mode kind of deservces what they get, better to focus on accessibility isses for screen readers etc IMO. I've spent enough time arguing that we should make our stuff work for impaired users that I cna just about vomit it out without needing to think about it. Especially because my current stuff seems to get used by voluntarily impaired users more often than seemly likely by chance alone.

    1191:

    All this talk of fonts, screens etc is fascinating (or amusing, depending on my mood), so here's my own small contribution.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trojan_Source

    I've been wrestling with this problem since the paper was published. I may someday need to decide on how to handle this in a parser for a lanaguage where things like Greek letters might actually get used as identifiers. Do I want my compiler to barf on code like that? (Dammit, I had to add full number parsing for the same reason.)

    1192:

    And you will know the counter-arguments (I certainly mentioned them).

    I was involved in the SEAS natural language group, which was the first non-government organisation recognised by ISO, specifically for its expertise in this area. Yes, I was merely an administrator in that contaxt, but I learnt a hell of a lot that I didn't know.

    The first one is that you are merely moving the boundary. Not all languages are not based on simple, discrete characters etc. Let's ignore numbers here, though that applies to them, too.

    Names are particularly problematic, because their spelling (and, worse, sorting) is often context-dependent. Yes, in some languages, names have cases, and many have multiple forms that are used more-or-less interchangeably (e.g. Scottish Highland ones).

    The second one is that it adds confusion and even ambiguity, if a UCN maps to one of the syntactic characters (e.g. '\' or '\n'!) I can't remember whether the actual ambiguities were closed, but I can't see them having been in the C++ standard.

    1193:

    Sigh. I pointed out that the 27" is merely clearer, and I have a 14" FHD laptop, on which I have done the same thing. That is not the primary issue and never was.

    I stand by my points, but this is going nowhere, so I shan't continue.

    1194:

    Right. That was one of the many reasons that the ISO and SEAS people did not like the Unicode compromise that won the poltitical war (between ISO and Unicode, that is). But politics trumps technology in standards work :-(

    1195:

    I was writing code on a keyboard with ç on it in 1980. If you can't see this letter it is the C-cedilla. … This was in Toronto.

    Yeah, well, in Canada keyboards are required to be bilingual, like our package labels :-)

    1196:

    Virtually every keyboard sold in the UK since 1980, and many before, has had a pound sterling symbol on it.

    Something that I utterly loathe, that is relevant to a few posts here, is the amount of software that 'intelligently' replaces characters with 'better' ones. The oldest such abomination is replacing spaces by tabs, but nowadays it happens to quotation marks, and some software does it to other characters.

    1197:

    So called "smart quotes" yes?

    1199:

    0x2d or not 0x2d. Aaargh.

    That one is even more annoying than the quotes because it doesn't just change the character itself, it also changes adjacent characters - adding/deleting spaces - in such a way that there isn't a straightforward one-to-one mapping between pre-fucked and fucked versions, so you can't just reverse the transformation to unfuck it. It may also lose the information of whether the original text had one 0x2d or two, which does wonders for anything resembling C. Not. At least with dumm quotes a straightforward search and replace very nearly always suffices.

    Wikipedia has a massive hard-on for these daft things which has been breaking URLs ever since they took the pill, as they pass through various random external things which disagree over whether or not they should be percent-encoded. But this hasn't put them off. IIRC there was an instance on here only a couple of weeks ago. They also do it in such a way as to generate spuriously-hyphenated word pairs in articles, which cause moments of confusion on reading them. It would be much better to apply it as a display filter in the browser, so the transformation (a) only ever needs to be done in a forward direction and (b) can be switched on or off at will.

    1200:

    I really don't understand the rationale for URL mangling (i.e. the choice oc characters and circiumstances). It's not QUITE as demented as C trigraphs, but runs it close.

    1201:

    Funny, but I was just wondering that.

    1202:

    Harry Turtledove, "The Road Not Taken", in "There Will Be War IV?" (Hate the title, but it's Pournelle's anthology.

    1203:

    Conquistadors? No, it's the British Army.../

    1204:

    Unlikely. For one, what worked almost 200 years ago doesn't work now. For another... none of them is willing to take orders from any other one. And they can't actually explain what it is they want - try asking any of them to define "woke" the way they use it.

    1206:

    There are times goto is the right answer: if you're in, say, a function, and you've got a ton of if/then's, if it succeeds, goto exit.

    On the other hand, COBOL has ALTER. When I first read of it, I looked at my manager, and asked if he'd fire someone who used it before or after defenestrating them. He said before.

    1207:

    Goddess.

    Appropriate punishment for management would have been exposure to radiation, as they did their employees.

    1208:

    Put up by me. Apparently, Filthy Pierre's display racks never showed.

    1209:

    Dunno. When I was writing code, I tried keeping it under 72; when it had to be longer, I split it in an appropriate place, though I hoped for open brace.

    1210:

    What, you want electronics to last? What are you, some kinda commie? Think of all the lost ROI when we can't sell you, say, another expensive "smart" phone every two years (the was some Americans bought cars in the '50's....)!

    1211:

    Yes, in class. And, actually, I was punching cards for the class....

    1212:

    Hmmm... didn't know the Mako Mori test, but my next novel, Becoming Terran, passes with flying colors... given that the three primary PoV characters, and a major secondary character, are women.

    1213:

    Humph. On the two terms I have up - urxvt, btw, I have it the way God, and IBM, meant them to be, green on black.

    1214:

    Had a co-worker who put up five screens. We were sysadmins... but he'd been in networking before.

    1215:

    I see, so you want to make it unreadable for those of us who don't speak that language. Whereas in most (all?) programming languages, there's only a dozen or so words to memorize (if/then, etc).

    1216:

    It's the wackos of the GOP, and their Qanon supporters. a) We do know enough to have come up with new tech utterly out of the blue from its existance. We haven't. b) we know it was useful to have idiots by an airfield flying experimental aircraft.

    It's also useful that they waste time on this, rather than screwing over the country still more.

    1217:

    »0x2d or not 0x2d. Aaargh.«

    You mean "0x2b || 0xd4" ?

    1218:

    whitroth @ 1216
    Alternatively, its all (?) the various "secret" agencies of the US guvmint - keeping "secrets" from each other &, at the same time, denying everything.
    A scenario that I find much more plausible ....

    1219:

    Is this the correct moment for me to mention my favourite programming language construct of all time: the Computed Come From Statement?

    I never did get around to setting an exam question asking students to give a semantics to such an abomination -- though I did hint in lectures that I might.

    Has anyone implemented Intercal with unicode yet?

    1220:
    Alternatively, its all (?) the various "secret" agencies of the US guvmint - keeping "secrets" from each other &, at the same time, denying everything. A scenario that I find much more plausible ....

    I offer you Exhibit A: Jack Teixeira.

    It is my considered opinion that none of the US (or UK, for that matter) Intelligence Agencies can keep any secrets.

    And on this topic, I did once have my computer hacked underneath me whilst working at NASA. The machine started going very slow, so I logged into my own machine back in Manchester. When I got back I found the machine in bits and missing its hard drive. I was told Special Branch had taken the drive away, and I never saw it again. I was told my hacker was looking evidence of UFOs.

    1221:

    I prefer to think of it as a goto in the context of reversible computing. Which way the program runs is up to the observer to decide. The question for the current discussion is whether unicode needs a change-time-direction code point or whether the existing LTR and RTL code points are enough.

    1222:

    Smalltalk has only six - nil, true, false, self, super, and thisContext. You could kinda-sorta claim ^ as a seventh but it’s just a syntactic alias for thisContext returnTo: thisContext home sender. The assorted flow control commands in other languages do not exist, but the functionality is provided - obviously - by sending messages. So much easier than C++ etc.

    1223:

    The assorted flow control commands in other languages do not exist, but the functionality is provided - obviously - by sending messages. So much easier than C++ etc.

    So true. I'm a Smalltalk programmer (almost 40 years now), and I could teach most people the syntax and semantics of Smalltalk in a single afternoon - including the use of much of Smalltalk's user interface.

    Learning to effectively use Smalltalk's class libraries? Years...

    1224:

    Yes. In my courses, I mentioned that (in modern Fortran, with good control constructs), that was one of two valid uses: i.e. branching to an exit sequence. The other was in some explicitly finite-state algorithms, where it is clearer than using nonce flags - while you can also do that using an indefinite loop and a switch construct, that's often less clear. Those are rare.

    And I have only once in my life written code where assigned goto was the best solution! A finite-state algorithm where the next state depended on the current state's predecessor. I raised that at SC22WG5 when we were talking about abolishing it, and the consensus that one use in a (long and varied) career did not constitute a justifcation for keeping it :-)

    1225:

    I have mentioned before that there was a real language with a COME FROM construct, and I have used it. It was a debug mechanism in one of IBM's Fortran compilers, and was actually far more usable and clearer than people think.

    1226:

    No, that's not it. I was involved in both the original project that introduced the concept and C99. I have now found my copy of the latter, so need to correct #1192.

    The original intent was for databases, scripting languages etc., where the name of an object was often the name of who or what to which it referred. In that context, it was a good idea but, as usual, it metastatised.

    The main argument for allowing it in identifiers in conventional programming languages was to make it easier for machine-generated translation (from the aforementioned databases etc.) As you might expect, the proponents missed the points that (a) that was feasible in other ways and (b) if a standard allows something, it will be abused.

    In C99, it is ambiguously restricted to identifiers (which I opposed, feebly, knowing it was a lost cause) and character and string constants (definitely a good idea). They aren't allowed to create characters in the base character set except for "$", "@" and "'" (for some reason that I never fathomed). So at least most of the ambiguities WERE closed, though it seems to allow UCNs to be split across multiple lines, which C++ doesn't. In C++, '\u005Cu1234' seems to be ambiguous, but I may have missed a restriction.

    They're not quite as bad as you think.

    1227:

    Actually, I am wrong about all of the ambiguities being closed: consider '\u0027 and gibber gently.

    1228:

    the Computed Come From Statement

    Yeah, a standard control-flow operator in CLC-INTERCAL.

    I don't think Unicode is in the roadmap but Baudot code definitely is in there.

    Here's the official source code repo for CLC-INTERCAL, perhaps the only INTERCAL compiler implemented in INTERCAL (yes, it's a self-modifying INTERCAL compiler).

    1229:

    It's also useful that they waste time on this, rather than screwing over the country still more.

    Ahem. Don't forget that the Trumpian GOP has form for noisy distractions, of which this is one.

    Probably also this is allied with how the House ratfucked the defense appropriations act with all sorts of anti-abortion and other BS. Which is also allied Sen. Tuberville's blocking promotions (like the head of the USMC) until the military kowtows and outlaws abortions to female service members...

    ...after all, if the military is doing teh Evuls with alien body parts, Congress is entitled to whup their minority butts until they know their place. Or something.

    Not that I understand what they're thinking, but it seems to be along the lines of /make shit up/ distract/ lie/ grab/ oops/ at/ make shit up/ power/ lie/ disgriftract/Tell your lawyers they need to lawyer up too/ et merde. In other words, don't spend too much effort dissecting the noise, watch for the grifts and power grabs.

    Note also that I don't like the DoD. But I think that a DoD borked by the Trumpers is far, far worse than what we have to deal with now.

    So far as UFO tech goes, I think they have a point. We should watch the skies, both for drones and for all the aerial techno-plankton that the ballooning community and various espionage agencies have been flying over us for decades.

    1230:

    On a different and more serious note: Black Flag Weather.

    Turns out, I probably got it wrong, meaning the USMC probably set their temperature/humidity threshold too high.

    If current research is correct, the upper limit for healthy young people is around 31oC/100% humidity, or 38oC/60% humidity. You can see the graph at https://theconversation.com/as-heat-records-fall-how-hot-is-too-hot-for-the-human-body-210088

    So the bad news is that we're already seeing Black Flag weather if this is true. The good news is that we're not seeing mass casualties yet.

    In other news, water off Key Largo Florida (coral reef area) hit 38oC a few days ago. Remember that mass disappearance of reefs is the gold standard sign for a mass extinction event, as defined by paleontologists.

    1231:

    "So the bad news is that we're already seeing Black Flag weather if this is true. The good news is that we're not seeing mass casualties yet."

    Surely if the second sentence is true, then by definition it can't be "black flag weather" (bleurgh: I do wish people wouldn't invent such horrid little expressions), and also, the research must be wrong.

    1232:

    I doubt the research is wrong, so far as it goes. Obviously, the research doesn't go far enough, which is the important point.

    Anyway, the flag system is used by the USMC. They have a standard meteorological test they do every day at their installations, and as a result of it, they fly one of several colored flags if conditions are bad: https://www.ready.marines.mil/Stay-Informed/Natural-Hazards/Extreme-Heat/Flag-Conditions/

    That's where the term Black Flag Weather came from, and I'm not the only one to use it.

    1233:

    Speaking of alien weirdness, did they really just discover a superconductor that works above the boiling point of water?

    https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/breaking-superconductor-news

    1234:

    We should watch the skies, both for drones and for all the aerial techno-plankton that the ballooning community and various espionage agencies have been flying over us for decades.

    I've come to the conclusion that the public and most politicians think our existing radar (anyone's on the planet) are more like Star Trek long range sensors than what reality is. (Cue fewer and fewer veterans in politics but that's another discussion.)

    Anyway, most people don't understand that what many think of as radar is really a high resolution display of transponder data. Not EMF reflections off objects. Which are still not all that precise. And there's still a lot of clutter that systems filter out which leads to things that look like clutter (Chinese balloons?) being filtered out till someone knows to not filter them.

    1235:

    Anyway, most people don't understand that what many think of as radar is really a high resolution display of transponder data. Not EMF reflections off objects. Which are still not all that precise. And there's still a lot of clutter that systems filter out which leads to things that look like clutter (Chinese balloons?) being filtered out till someone knows to not filter them.

    Bingo. I completely agree.

    And, as with the A-12 Oxcart project and all the UFO reports it generated in the 1960s, getting people to report UFOs can be militarily useful. After all, we can be pretty sure that there are at least 4 "Black Project" manned vehicles that the US is flying, let alone China and Russia. Every intelligence agency actively monitors where its assets are likely to be spotted, if only to avoid these areas.

    There's another interesting lacuna I wonder about: the mesosphere of the atmosphere ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesosphere ). We can send rockets through it, but --apparently-- we don't know how to fly anything in it. I wonder about that. The US military has military programs that reach everywhere from the abyssal sea floor to geosynchronous orbit. Except the mesosphere. Interesting gap, that. Maybe a place for UFOs...

    1236:

    So, quantum computing, and the observer defines the results?

    1237:

    Well, then there's lisp....

    Years ago, someone, might have been on usenet, might have been early web, posted that they'd gotten into the US DoD SDI (misnamed "star wars"), and that the software was all written in lisp. For national security reasons, he couldn't post the code, he said, but he did post the last five lines of the entire code.

    It was, of course, five 80 column lines of )))))))))))

    1238:

    Note that desegregation really began by the end of WWII... in the US Army.

    1239:

    H @ 1229
    Not that I understand what they're thinking - they are THINKING?
    Who knew?

    @ 1230
    For the "degree" symbol, write (WITHOUT spaces!) & deg ;

    @ 1223
    MAYBE - limited experimental tests in small volumes, may not process to larger iterations ... on test & enquiry.
    BUT - "they" are getting a lot closer. I suspect that quite soon, such a phenomenon will pop up from this or other closely-related research.
    When it does happen, it will be a true game-changer.
    Couple that with Perovskite-laced solar cells operating at approx 33% efficiency & then - attempts to limit GW to below 2°C or even 1.5°C might be actually do-able.

    1240:

    Pigeon @ 1231:

    "So the bad news is that we're already seeing Black Flag weather if this is true. The good news is that we're not seeing mass casualties yet."

    Surely if the second sentence is true, then by definition it can't be "black flag weather" (bleurgh: I do wish people wouldn't invent such horrid little expressions), and also, the research must be wrong.

    Helps to understand "black flag weather" in the original context - when the black flag is up, training has to be conducted under special rules designed to reduce the possibility of heat casualties. Don't do stupid shit that needlessly harms service members.

    Not applicable to "operations" (i.e. combat) which has to carry on regardless.

    Also, those "Flag Conditions" apply throughout the DoD - Army, Navy, Marines & Air Force (also "Space" Farce) and the Coast Guard which is not technically a part of the DoD. Also DoD civilians.

    1241:

    I'm not getting at you for inventing the phrase, nor supposing you did; I'm just moaning about its existence. Partly for suspected reasons which are confirmed by your explanation, but mainly because I can't stand the way every little thing has to get a silly name these days when there's already a superior, immediately-comprehensible term for it in standard language (eg. "lethally hot weather", in this case).

    However, that's by the by; the point is that there is a mass of everyday evidence that the weather in question is obviously not lethally hot, and if the observations don't fit the hypothesis then the hypothesis needs to be replaced with one that does match observation.

    (Actually, that's another reason to object to the fashion for silly names: it corrupts discussion. With a descriptive term like "lethally hot" it's immediately obvious how well the meaning matches reality. With a non-descriptive term you tend to end up with reality and discussion becoming separated.)

    1242:

    Posts crossed, but you've provided a neat demonstration of why using a standard descriptive term is preferable.

    1243:

    Heteromeles @ 1230:

    On a different and more serious note: Black Flag Weather.

    Turns out, I probably got it wrong, meaning the USMC probably set their temperature/humidity threshold too high.

    If current research is correct, the upper limit for healthy young people is around 31oC/100% humidity, or 38oC/60% humidity. You can see the graph at https://theconversation.com/as-heat-records-fall-how-hot-is-too-hot-for-the-human-body-210088

    So the bad news is that we're already seeing Black Flag weather if this is true. The good news is that we're not seeing mass casualties yet.

    We've had "Black Flag" weather all along - even BEFORE the Flag system was implemented by the DoD ...

    The BAD NEWS is we're seeing sustained high temperatures that are beginning to go off the scale.

    The even WORSE NEWS is that some places are becoming uninhabitable due to the heat - Phoenix, AZ becomes like Death Valley used to be, and Death Valley becomes something like the "furnaces of hell" ...

    In other news, water off Key Largo Florida (coral reef area) hit 38oC a few days ago. Remember that mass disappearance of reefs is the gold standard sign for a mass extinction event, as defined by paleontologists.

    And FWIW (not criticism, just information) on Windoze systems holding the left ALT while typing 0176 on the numeric keypad gives you a degree (°) symbol ... I think CMD+0176 does the same on an Apple computer (but I don't have my iMac up and running yet, so I can't test it).

    Sometimes OCD kicks in in the strangest places.

    PS: Plus I don't remember if the Apple keyboard has a separate number pad. I like Apple, but I hate their keyboards & mice. The first thing I bought for my iMac, even before I took it out of the box, is a Macally keyboard & 2 button scroll mouse for Apple ... which got lost during my recent move, so I STILL haven't taken the new iMac out of the box.

    But just as soon as I find that damn keyboard!.

    1244:

    Several things ... this & that:

    The Special Counsel in the Mar-A-Lago documents case has issued a superseding indictment adding three new charges - tampering with evidence & the document he waved around at the Bedminster Golf Course ... one new co-defendant. [No link, I figure you can find it for yourselves if you're interested - probably already in the headlines wherever you are.]

    In the U.K., a Disaster No One Wants to Talk About [New York Times]

    This has nothing to do with anything that's been discussed here, but I ran across a YouTube channel dealing with the D-Day invasion of Normandy in WW2.

    Very detailed hour by hour episodes lasting an hour PLUS some additional episodes on special topics (so, 24+ hours of video for your enlightenment & amusement):

    https://www.youtube.com/@D-Day24Hours-sm5pe/videos

    I'm finding it entertaining & informative, so I thought I'd share. YMMV.

    And just to stir the mix a bit more Tesla created secret team to suppress thousands of driving range complaints

    This seems to be like the way Volkswagen rigged their cars to spoof emissions tests & I expect it may have the same kind of fallout. It just gives the fossil fuel parasites ammunition to snipe at alternative energy.

    I believe we NEED ELECTRIC CARS TO SUCCEED (even if I'll never be able to afford one) and this is not good for that success.

    Unfortunately the individual automobile is too deeply embedded into the U.S. psyche (burrowed in like a tick) for there to be a reversal in time to do anything meaningful about the contribution they make to global climate change.

    Why The U.S. Gave Up On Public Transit ... and why it's NOT going to get better in my lifetime. Not even going to start getting better.

    1245:

    Pigeon @ 1241
    BUT is specifically IS NOT "Lethally-hot weather" ....
    It's lethally HOT+HUMID Weather - it's the combination that does you in - not being able to cool by sweating, specifically.
    yes, temps above 50°C are going to be really bad for you, whatever else, but 35-45&degC is "tolerable" if the RH is low, say below 30% ... - yes?
    { See also how "desert" dwelling peoples such as in Arabia & the N Sahara have managed for a very long time. }

    JohnS
    PROBLEM with Low-Emission Zones & other pollution problems with "automobiles" ...
    These days, at least 30% of the harmful "emissions" don't come from the tailpipe & also come with/from vehicles with no tailpipe ....
    Micro-Particulates from the tyre/road interface, wearing off both & getting into the air we breathe near roads.
    And, EV's contribution will be greater, because they are heavier, yes?
    When one thinks of the truly 'orrible chemicals used in tyre-manufacture, "crosslinking" compounds, most of them, & the contribution such substances make to multiple forms of cancers.
    It's not a pleasant prospect.
    Unfortunately, the "Diesels are DEATH!" fanatics will press on & - I'm prepared to predict - will deliberately & carefully ignore any warnings about tyre/road pollution.
    Meanwhile in the UK, the tories seem to want to electrify everything - except the railways, of course.

    Which ties back to your liked article on public "transit" in the US

    The killer s seem to be: Low frequency & cut-offs of service during the day & in the evenings.
    Compare, my "last train" from a City ( Literally The City ) terminus is at 01.03, the first "in" is at 05.19, with a basic 15-minute service. The tube runs every 90 SECONDs in the peaks .....

    1246:

    JohnS noted: "on Windoze systems holding the left ALT while typing 0176 on the numeric keypad gives you a degree (°) symbol ... I think CMD+0176 does the same on an Apple computer"

    Not on my Mac, but here are two really useful resources for typing special characters on Mac and Windows. First, keyboard shortcuts for the math and sci characters I use all the time:

    https://geoff-hart.com/resources.html#downloads

    (Scroll down to Guides/List of keyboard shortcuts.

    Second, if you can't be arsed to use the shortcuts (which is fine... don't we have better things to do with our brains?), you can copy/paste a large number from this resource:

    https://sites.psu.edu/symbolcodes/accents/math/mathchart/

    I keep copies of both the keyboard shortcuts and the math characters on my hard disk in case I need to work offline.

    1247:

    For IPad and iPhone special characters are easy. For the degree symbol just hold down zero and select ° For acccents and special characters hold down the appropriate letter and select an accented option. The letter a has eight different options including æ. There are also special characters on other number keys as well as the degree symbol on zero.

    1248:

    I think CMD+0176 does the same on an Apple computer

    Nooooooooooo.

    Cmd anything is a short cut and what it does varies by application. Typing the above generated 4 short cut commands. Which may or may not do something.

    1249:

    "driving range complaints" sounds like an euphemism for being hit in the ear by a golf ball.

    1250:

    For IPad and iPhone special characters are easy. For the degree symbol just

    While that gives you a LOT of the characters, especially those that a Latin based language user might want, there are ten times (or more) characters in most modern complete typefaces.

    I forget how to get to them directly but the Font Book Utility will give you access to all the choices in any one typeface.

    And the keyboard short cut you can put in the menu bar shows you all the ones you can get to quickly via the keyboard.

    1251:

    It was, of course, five 80 column lines of )))))))))))

    Sounds like piss-poor programming to me.

    With a good editor (so as to not go crazy trying to match parenthesis), Lisp is a decent language. I did some Lisp programming in AutoCAD many years ago, and I have to say it was fairly enjoyable.

    1252:

    Um, er, you were supposed to chuckle. Do you really believe they'd have written it in Lisp, not, say, ADA?

    1253:

    specifically IS NOT "Lethally-hot weather"

    The problem is that much weather that will kill an elderly person before they can hobble into the shade is fine for me to go for a bike ride in. And likewise weather that will kill a fit, healthy, heat-acclimatised person wearing appropriate clothing etc etc and therefore meets the "lethally hot weather" criteria will kill a lot more people while it's warming up to that point.

    We could do this with an LD50 type process, and I actually suspect that's how the US military defines it. With the caveat that they don't employ elderly people, infants etc, so it's possible that their definitions are only applicable to people who can pass their fitness tests.

    The problem with heat waves is that it never gets cool. In Melbourne a few years ago 40°C or more was fine, it was the 35°C overnight lows that made it awful. Mostly because it's really hard to sleep when it's that hot and a few days with hardly any sleep reduces your tolerance for heat (etc).

    1254:

    “And, EV's contribution will be greater, because they are heavier, yes? ”

    FFS, not again.

    Tesla model 3 weighs about the same as BMW 3 series. They use less friction braking, so generate less brake dust. It’s not rocket psychiatry.

    And as for reports about range cheating, well isn’t it quite strange how this suddenly comes up as the Tesla Y starts to sell more than any other car? I’m sure it must be coincidence and not any part of fossil fuel company bullshit.

    1255:

    Polite request ...
    Could the commentariat please keep half-an-eye out for confirmation or denial of the room-temperature ( & above! ) superconductivity progress, or lack of it?
    I will, of course be looking myself, but all of you will be scanning a much wider field.

    1256:

    Following a previous round, I checked up fairly carefully and, yes, the claim is mostly correct - though they are not as much heavier as might appear. Some of that has been confused by the way that manufacturers have been bloating their cars over the past decade, both with gimmicks and in weight. A conspiracy theorist might say that is to soften us up for EVs, but I would not go so far.

    The BMW 3 is particularly interesting, because the weight almost doubled between the previous model and latest one. Again, a conspiracy theorist would suspect that it was set up as a Brand X straw man.

    https://www.themotoraddict.com/bmw-3-series-weights/

    You are right that the juggernauts and fat cat cars are not much heavier, but the smaller cars are, such as are used by most people in the UK. The Nissan Leaf is 60% heavier than a petrol Skoda Fabia, and much less useful, to take one example.

    Another aspect is that the much-vaunted higher accelerations of EVs also causes a lot more tyre and road dust.

    Whether they generate more of less brake dust is unclear, and depends very much on road conditions and how the car is driven. In particular, what evidence do you have that regenerative braking on EVs (for those that have it) is any more effective at reducing brake use than engine braking on a petrol car? I have no idea which way it goes.

    As I have said repeatedly before, and the pundits are beginning to pick up, our primary requirement in the UK is to use cars less, and the secondary is for smaller, lighter cars, where we are being pushed in the opposite directions. Yes, we should move to EVs, but they are not in themselves a solution to any of the UKs traffic or environmental problems.

    1257:

    The Special Counsel in the Mar-A-Lago documents case has issued a superseding indictment adding three new charges - tampering with evidence & the document he waved around at the Bedminster Golf Course ...

    For those fortunate enough to have missed it, the last few weeks of coverage have basically been a cycle:

    Reporter: So with these new announcements, it appears Donald Trump may be fucked.

    Trump: It is totally unfair for the law to come after me for the stuff I did!

    Law enforcement: Hold on, there's more...

    Reporter: It appears Trump is fucked.

    Law enforcement: Wait, wait! There's even more! Did you see this other stuff that he did? We have recordings.

    Trump: I did everything! And if I'm re-elected I'll put Biden in prison for doing what I did!

    Reporter: Trump is totally fucked.

    Law enforcement: Hey, remember what Trump said about Clinton erasing her server? We've got records of Trump ordering a private server erased.

    Reporter: Are you kidding me? FML.

    1258:

    Scott Sanford @1257

    I've been trying to follow this, but I could do with some local -- i.e. USian -- input.

    On any reasonable level, the case is water-tight and a slam-dunk. But, the case is being heard in Florida, and in front of a very inexperienced Trump-appointed Judge. If she cocks it up, presumably an appeal court gets to correct things. What will the Federal Supreme Court do, if it gets that far?

    And then we get to trying to second-guess what a rural Floridian jury will make of it -- there will be one, right? In England appeals courts are very very leery of interfering with jury decisions -- however illogical the jury has been.

    Care to make any predictions about possible outcomes? Because no matter how bad your guesses are, they'll be better than mine from 4,000 miles away!

    1259:

    In particular, what evidence do you have that regenerative braking on EVs (for those that have it)

    All EV's and hybrids have regenerative brakes. It would be beyond stupid for an EV not to have them because by necessity all the hardware is already in place. To add regenerative capability, only software needs to be added

    is any more effective at reducing brake use than engine braking on a petrol car?

    I have a 2008 Camry Hybrid with almost 200,000 miles on it. I had to change brake pads only once, at about 140,000 miles. That's how little use they get.

    1260:

    Trump and the courts.

    Why a rural court? This is based in what ever district includes Mar-A-Largo which is part of the east coast / Miami metroplex. Which has a very odd mix of political affiliations. Now if it winds up in the northern or western part of the state, well, that would be different.

    Appeals courts in the US deal with was the law correctly applied. Findings of facts by juries are typically not appealable. Unless the process to those "facts" was illegal.

    And the rules for how a federal trial is run isn't the same as for a state or local. No TV or live audio for one.

    After the judge got her fingers smacked, HARD, last year, she seems to be thinking about getting it right. By a conservative leaning appeals court. She may have realized that she will be on the bench much longer than Trump will likely be alive and decided to think about a legacy.

    Hopefully potential jury members will get tossed by the judge if they appear to be willing to deny reality.

    But this is far from over.

    And getting very boring for all but the extremes over here.

    1261:

    When I last checked up on that claim, I found that it wasn't true. For a start, several of the EVs I looked up did not.

    And, no, it's not that simple, because drive-wheel only braking is thoroughly non-optimal for safety, because the optimal design of motors of generators is different, and probably other reasons.

    I have never replaced brake pads because of wear on modern cars, either, though I have when the cylinders rusted (partly due to lack of use).

    1262:

    In particular, what evidence do you have that regenerative braking on EVs (for those that have it) is any more effective at reducing brake use than engine braking on a petrol car? I have no idea which way it goes.

    I suspect like most everything in the modern world, the answer is, well it depends.

    I own a gas sipping 2016 1.5L turbo ICE Honda Civic. I drive it with the "eco" mode on all the time. 7 speed auto transmission that I never feel shift. 30-35mpg in the city (for ME) and 40-50mpg "on the road".

    I also have a 2008 5.7L Toyota Tundra pickup truck rated to tow 10,000 pounds. 6 speed auto and at times I can tell it has shifted. 20mpg if downhill and a stiff tail wind.

    And two weeks ago I rented a Tesla Model 3 for a 1000 mile week long trip. 700+ miles of faster driving with 100 or so of getting around town driving.

    If I lift the pedal on the Civic the car just keeps going. The car pushes the engine. If going downhill the car will accelerate without braking. If uphill it will slow unless the adaptive cruise is on. And even if on, when going downhill the car will speed up.

    For the Tundra it is somewhat the opposite. Cruise control is dumb. And the engine (when not towing) will slow me down if I lift the pedal in any situation. And the dumb cruise control will keep me at the same speed uphill, downhill, or on level ground. The engine dominates. But going uphill without the cruise control on it will rapidly slow down if I lift the pedal as the engine slows down and dominates the truck.

    As to the Tesla, I rented it to get a feel how an EV drives now as I may need a new smaller car soon. I left the regenerative braking on as I wanted to get used to it and for the range. It definitely kept my foot off the brake when not on faster roads. In normal traffic I could bring the car to a stop where I wanted just by backing off the pedal. It did take a few days to learn how. In the first 2 days I'd frequently stop short or long of my planned point. Or use the brakes to keep from going too far. But it only took a couple of days to learn how to get it right most of the time.

    Anyway, regenerative braking can make a huge reduction in brake pad wear.

    BUT !!!!!!

    My wife doesn't use cruise control on our Civic nearly as much as I do. And would likely turn off the regenerative braking on any EV as it would require her to learn a new way to drive. People who lift off the pedal a lot to "coast" will not like the way it feels like braking to them. It was disconcerting even to me at first and I was expecting it.

    So 5 years from now will there be more or less brake dust on the roads if lots more EV are in use? Who knows.

    While I didn't do any "racing" the few times I "stepped on it" in traffic to get away from some situations, the acceleration when at 50+mph was amazing.

    1263:

    For a start, several of the EVs I looked up did not.

    Regenerative braking?

    I suspect in the US all Hybrids and EVs have it. Due to CAFE standards and how it helps meet them for their fleet. In other parts of the planet, maybe it is left off or optional to save money if no similar standards have to be met.

    1264:

    "I suspect like most everything in the modern world, the answer is, well it depends."

    Yes. My objection to most of these claims is that they are as much religious as technical in nature - usually, they are only partly true, and it's damn hard to find out any hard facts.

    "I own a gas sipping 2016 1.5L turbo ICE Honda Civic. I drive it with the "eco" mode on all the time. 7 speed auto transmission that I never feel shift."

    That's the reason you don't get significant engine braking!

    "In normal traffic I could bring the car to a stop where I wanted just by backing off the pedal."

    That's how I normally drive. I have to use the brake a bit for the final stop in city driving, but UK city roads are a LOT more stop-start than USA ones.

    1265:

    I have a big (virtual) tach display. Car pushes the engine around. At 1.5L, it has NO low end torque. And not much at mid and higher RPMs. Which is one reason I've gotten 50mpg on a long highway run.

    As to stop and go. I know you've lived in the US for a bit. But that varies A LOT as you hit up different US cities. In mine I plan routes to keep the number of stops below insanity numbers. We are nothing like those grids of suburban Chicago. When you're subdivision of 400+ lots from the 60s is called North Hills, and the intent was to NOT allow people to go fast, well there are lots of curves and stops. And my neighborhood is typical of the entire area. And don't even think about driving fast in the Pittsburgh area once you get off of the limited access roads. Ditto my recent week at State College, PA in the Tesla. Lots of practice at stopping via the "throttle" pedal. Plus around my brother's home in rural south east Virgina.

    It varies.

    1266:

    My car has a 1.2L engine and NO turbo :-)

    I have visited Chicago though, admittedly, a long time ago - I can assure you that most urban areas in the UK are a lot more cramped, often with (unsynchronised) traffic lights / pedestrian crossings a couple of dozen yards apart. For such driving, an EV is by far the best solution - but something MUCH closer to a Citroen Ami or Hong Guang Mini rather than massive fat-cat behemoths like the current BMW 3 or any Tesla.

    I live in suburbia, and would want something a little larger, but no larger, heavier or gimmick-ridden than my 2011 Skoda Fabia. There's no reason one couldn't be made, except for the government-backed motor manufacturers' cartel.

    1267:

    I misread your post. I have also been to Boston and San Francisco, and the same applies relative to them. Remember that most of our streets and roads were laid out in mediaeval times.

    1268:

    "At 1.5L, it has NO low end torque. And not much at mid and higher RPMs."

    Aye, that's Honda :)

    The Japanese tend to follow the low-torque high-revs school of small engine design (but with the manufacturing and metallurgy techniques to make really good ones), and Honda seem to like taking it a bit further than anyone else. It's particularly noticeable in Britain where for historical reasons small engines tend to be exactly the opposite, and the general rule is that if you want "British" operating characteristics you don't buy a Honda (you buy something else that isn't British); you get odd anomalies like an old people's car with a distinctly "sporty, boy-racer-ish" torque/revs characteristic. Same with their motorcycles - the whizziest engines in any class are usually Honda's.

    No idea what the deal is with their automatic transmissions these days, but with those too it was Honda ones that were most likely to be a bit special.

    1269:

    "Tesla model 3 weighs about the same as BMW 3 series."

    The BMW 3 series is a bloody great lard bucket. According to wikipedia the current version weighs between 1.5 and 2 tons. It is not a credible choice as a standard example of a "normally" or "acceptably" lightweight car.

    A VW Golf (same wikipedia current model source) is 1.3 to 1.5 tons, and a Ford Fiesta 1.2 to 1.3 tons. (And the original Golf was under 1 ton.)

    1270:

    Unlicensed biolab with infectious agents shut down in California. No idea what's going on here. https://arstechnica.com/health/2023/07/illegal-lab-with-infectious-diseases-and-dead-mice-busted-in-california/

    1271:

    Polite request ... Could the commentariat please keep half-an-eye out for confirmation or denial of the room-temperature ( & above! ) superconductivity progress, or lack of it? I will, of course be looking myself, but all of you will be scanning a much wider field.

    Here's some reporting on why experts are skeptical: https://www.science.org/content/article/spectacular-superconductor-claim-making-news-here-s-why-experts-are-doubtful

    On the good side, apparently LK-99 is straightforward to produce, if not easy (see snarky comment in the above article about how labor intensive it is). That said, everybody who can and will make it probably has samples of it in their labs by now and are testing it. I expect those results to show up fairly soon.

    1272:

    Greg Tingey @ 1245:

    The killer s seem to be: Low frequency & cut-offs of service during the day & in the evenings. Compare, my "last train" from a City ( Literally The City ) terminus is at 01.03, the first "in" is at 05.19, with a basic 15-minute service. The tube runs every 90 SECONDs in the peaks .....

    That's why I say the U.S. has gone too far down the other road to easily reverse course. I think we need to do so, but I'm not confident it will happen in time.

    And that still doesn't address the needs of RURAL U.S. There won't be support for the changes we need if they're left out. But I think success with electrical vehicles is crucial to addressing those needs.

    1273:

    Remember that most of our streets and roads were laid out in mediaeval times.

    To be a bit more explicit, south eastern Virginia up to DC is full of roads that to me seemed a lot like those I encountered when driving around the coast of Ireland. 2 lanes in theory and 1 lane explicitly at times. And nothing straight. And as I said most of my city and the area around me except for a few of the downtown blocks are no where near a grid. Even if they are wider than medieval streets.

    Anyway, I brake a LOT with my ICEs. And I guess at 3/4s of it would go away with regenerative braking. For me.

    1274:

    Anyway, I brake a LOT with my ICEs. And I guess at 3/4s of it would go away with regenerative braking. For me.

    I'm lucky, in that my Bolt EV has a hand brake on the wheel that's regenerative only, and a floor brake that "smartly" switches between regen and physical wheel brakes. I only lay rubber when I slam on the physical brake.

    I love the hand brake for adjusting speed, especially on downhills, but it's really bad for bringing the Bolt to a sudden stop. All regenerative braking does is add a load to the spinning wheels, so they slow down. So on a long downhill behind a slow truck, I've gotten up to a 50% recharge simply by holding the hand brake as I cruise along behind them (this was for ca. 20 miles, coming out of the mountains). But I still stomp on the foot brake when I need to stop suddenly.

    With regards to EV and tire dust, I think it's a wash. My bigger concern (which I think a lot of engineers and planners share) is recycling the batteries. Lithium by itself is not fun to handle*, but the real problem is that not many places are set up to get the cobalt out of the batteries. That combo is making it hard to recycle them, although some companies are trying. We'll get there.

    • Not fun means that no one wants old lithium batteries to catch fire, and fires happen at recycling facilities.
    1275:

    "Unfortunately, the "Diesels are DEATH!" fanatics will press on"

    I don't understand who it is that makes money out of this. There must be someone, because it's so obviously an artificially induced panic, but I can't see how any of the usual suspects (government, car makers, oil companies, etc) get anything out of it. (Diesels use less fuel, but they make the refining process easier.)

    Levels of nitrogen oxides were falling in more or less a straight line for a couple of decades or more, even though diesel cars were undergoing their increase in popularity over the same period, and have been practically insignificant for a long time. When all the yelling and screaming kicked off, they were lower than they had ever been in the lifetimes of any of the people doing it. To ignore a potential problem while it exists and then start making a fuss after it doesn't any more is not sensible.

    What did become a problem was the purely artificial one that legislators had set up a programme of steadily-reducing emissions limits on the assumption that engine designers would always be able to devise new spells to keep up. Only engineers don't actually work with spells so eventually the emissions levels started to bottom out while the limits kept on reducing. Nothing actually got worse.

    Meanwhile all the fuss over a few parts per million of nitrogen oxides has obscured the more important point that gave rise to the idea of making diesel cars more popular in the first place - that diesels are more efficient, so they produce some parts per hundred (percent) less carbon dioxide for a given energy output than petrol engines do. If people are going to make a fuss about one type of engine but not about another, it ought to be petrol engines that are selectively railed against.

    It affects the railways too, since "but it would have to use diesel" has become a significant reason for proposals for improved services to be knocked back.

    I think the current emphasis on railway electrification is somewhat the wrong way round given the current limitations of the railways and the proportion of emissions they generate compared to road transport. If the relative levels of rail and road usage stay as they are it doesn't much matter whether the railways are electrified or not, as it won't make very much difference to the total. On the other hand, changing those proportions in favour of rail will reduce emissions even without any changes in the source of traction power.

    So the first priority ought to be making the railways more useful, which means the money first needs to go towards increasing capacity. For this purpose electrification is most usefully first applied to filling in the various odd holes in otherwise fully-electrified areas. For the network as a whole, we have lost a tremendous amount of capacity through various track and pointwork irrationalisations over the years, particularly in the north (funny how they seemed to be able to take it out for nothing but it costs an outrageously unreasonable amount to put any of it back), much of which has been a noticeable restriction ever since it was done (being done with excessive enthusiasm) and is now a serious one. Similarly, a huge amount of facilities have been lost, whether freight handling or simply truncation/removal of platforms (and here too, it is not reasonable that putting the platform back again should cost enough to rebuild half the village it serves).

    Not to mention reinstatement of whole lost routes or even possible creation of new ones. Here too the step increase in the abhorrence of diesel is a problem. Insisting on electrification pushes the cost way up and means nothing happens at all. The important thing is to get the route open, and simply make sure that any new or rebuilt structures have sufficient clearances to allow for electrification in the future.

    This is not an argument against electrification; I'm just suggesting that increasing capacity first and electrifying it later, given current conditions, is mostly more sensible than doing it the other way round.

    1276:

    Geoff Hart @ 1246:

    JohnS noted: "on Windoze systems holding the left ALT while typing 0176 on the numeric keypad gives you a degree (°) symbol ... I think CMD+0176 does the same on an Apple computer"

    Not on my Mac, but here are two really useful resources for typing special characters on Mac and Windows. First, keyboard shortcuts for the math and sci characters I use all the time:

    Well, as also noted, I don't have my iMac set up yet where IS that damn keyboard?, so the only thing I can say for certain from my own knowledge is under the Apple OS "ALT" & "CTRL" keys are NOT used the same way they're used under Windoze.

    Perhaps I should have said Apple has similar shortcuts ... 🙃

    https://geoff-hart.com/resources.html#downloads

    (Scroll down to Guides/List of keyboard shortcuts.

    Second, if you can't be arsed to use the shortcuts (which is fine... don't we have better things to do with our brains?), you can copy/paste a large number from this resource:

    https://sites.psu.edu/symbolcodes/accents/math/mathchart/

    I keep copies of both the keyboard shortcuts and the math characters on my hard disk in case I need to work offline.

    I have a sheet I printed out to keep up on the wall near my display. I should probably print out another for here in the new house (since the old one is probably wherever that Macally keyboard has got off to ...)

    Those two links have a lot more symbols than I'm ever likely to use, but I've bookmarked them for future reference; saved the PDF & I'll probably print it out as well.

    1277:

    I brake very little, even on roads like that, even with automatic transmission (Borg Warner BW35). It would be interesting if you and I drove the same vehicles over the same routes with neither of us being aware that brake use was being logged, so as to compare the results when we found out. I suspect they would probably be very different. It seems to be something where undiscoverable personal factors have far more influence than the car's equipment or anything else.

    1278:

    David L @ 1248:

    I think CMD+0176 does the same on an Apple computer

    Nooooooooooo.

    Cmd anything is a short cut and what it does varies by application. Typing the above generated 4 short cut commands. Which may or may not do something.

    I did warn that I don't have my iMac set up yet and hadn't tested the proposition.

    1279:

    waldo @ 1249:

    "driving range complaints" sounds like an euphemism for being hit in the ear by a golf ball.

    That probably doesn't hurt as much or last as long as the pain from getting halfway there & finding out "you can't get there from here" ... because it's too far away to make it on a single charge like the manufacturer said you could.

    Be the same as if a IC engine vehicle was advertised with a 30 gallon fuel tank giving X miles at the EPA fuel mileage, when in fact, you could only put in 15 gallons so you only got half the advertised range ...

    You know damn well the IC engine vehicle manufacturer would get sued (and LOSE).

    1280:

    Yes to both. I'm sympathetic to range complaints in both EVs and ICs. The problem is that it's hard to estimate range, because it depends on vehicle speed, topography, and whether you have the AC on. These aren't so visible in the IC gas gauge, but with the EV, you can see it deduct 10 miles from your range when you turn the AC on.

    I got a vivid demonstration of this when I took an early Saturday morning drive up the I-15 to a meeting 100 miles away, with a range estimate of 240 miles in the Bolt. Normally this is no problem, but I-15 is hilly, and most of the traffic was semi-trucks coming up from the Border at over 70 mph. Since I didn't want to get steamrollered, I drove with traffic and got to my meeting with considerably less than 100 miles remaining range. Since it was Saturday, most of the business park chargers were turned off, and it took awhile to find a place to plug in so I could get home.

    Conversely, EVs are great for traffic jams. The slower you're going, the more range you have, unlike an IC car, which burns more energy idling the motor.

    1281:

    It would be interesting if you and I drove the same vehicles over the same routes with neither of us being aware that brake use was being logged, so as to compare the results when we found out. I suspect they would probably be very different. It seems to be something where undiscoverable personal factors have far more influence than the car's equipment or anything else.

    Well yes. For me it would matter which of my autos and if not one of mine how much time I'd have to get used to it.

    I drive my small Civic very differently than my Tundra truck. My wife complains about how low we sit in the Civic. To get into the Tundra there is a step bar plus a grab handle inside just above the door opening.

    Plus my adaptive cruise control on the Civic allows me to let the car do most of the braking in not too crowded streets.

    1282:

    We'll have to see what happens with Tesla, won't we.

    1283:

    Tesla

    I happen to think Elon is somewhat proud to be in the running for biggest tail hole on the planet every year.

    But

    What Elon (well the extensive staff he has assembled) is create 3 enormous systems. Tesla isn't just a car. It's an entire system. The in car mapping, the charging stations, over the air updates (maybe a bit too devops), and the car itself. When in the car you can ask for nearby charging stations and you get a nice list with distances from where you are. If you have a route setup it will show you stations along the route. And in either case it shows the cost per KWH at each station. Prices ranged from just below $.30/kwh to nearly $.50/kwh. And payment was automatic. You just plug in. No log in, account fiddling, credit card setup, etc... (And yes I get that this is NOT for people who want to pay cash for everything.) And while charging the dash would show you the current charge of the car in percentage of capacity and mileage. And how much you have spent so far. And there were plenty of charging points. I was never in any danger of running low. And yes this may be different in the Four Corners area out west or in much of Montana.

    Ditto SpaceX. To do what the company is doing meant more than building a nifty rocket. There are all kinds of computing and controls that no one else had done before (landings), ships, crews, recovery systems, landing pads, take a used booster from a pad or ship back to a refurb factory, etc... Plus the control systems and staff and such to allow separate control of 4 rockets at one time all in close proximity. (2+1 boosters landing plus one more still going up.)

    And Starlink.

    The maybe sad part is all of this is in the hands of what some consider a somewhat mad man. Time will tell.

    Of course there's Jobs and Apple.

    1284:

    Dave Lester @ 1258:

    Scott Sanford @1257

    I've been trying to follow this, but I could do with some local -- i.e. USian -- input.

    On any reasonable level, the case is water-tight and a slam-dunk. But, the case is being heard in Florida, and in front of a very inexperienced Trump-appointed Judge. If she cocks it up, presumably an appeal court gets to correct things. What will the Federal Supreme Court do, if it gets that far?

    Judge Cannon is being closely watched by the 11th Circuit Court. And she seems to be minding her Ps & Qs (for the time being at least).

    But the appeals court doesn't want to step in while the trial is under way (and it is under way already even if only preliminary motions & such). So there's a lot she can do to screw the government's case WITHOUT getting out of bounds.

    And here's a quirk in the U.S. "justice" system - IF the judge screws the pooch with biased rulings that harm the defendant AND the defendant is convicted, he can appeal and the Appeals Court can overturn his conviction and order a new trial ... or even just set him free entirely.

    BUT, the government gets "only one bite from the apple" ... if the defendant is acquitted due to judicial misconduct, the government DOES NOT get to appeal the acquittal.

    And then we get to trying to second-guess what a rural Floridian jury will make of it -- there will be one, right? In England appeals courts are very very leery of interfering with jury decisions -- however illogical the jury has been.

    I don't expect any great problem finding a fair jury in FloriDUH.

    Might not even get to the jury though.

    After the prosecution rests its case; after it has presented ALL of the prosecution evidence - the judge has the power to DIRECT a verdict of acquittal. I think (which means I could be wrong, so ...) the judge can even throw out a guilty verdict from the jury and direct a verdict of acquittal.

    And in that case, I still don't think the prosecution is allowed to appeal.

    AFAIK, the only time the prosecution can appeal an acquittal is if they can prove the defendant bribed the judge to get that directed verdict.

    [IF a defendant bribes a judge, the acquittal is preordained and the defendant is never "in jeopardy", so the double-jeopardy provision of the 5th Amendment does NOT apply.]

    OTOH, I have seen no evidence so far that Judge Cannon IS going to throw the trial. Her ruling setting the trial date seems reasonable on its face. So we'll just have to wait and see.

    Care to make any predictions about possible outcomes? Because no matter how bad your guesses are, they'll be better than mine from 4,000 miles away!

    I THINK he's going to get a fair trial despite everything he can do to thwart the system and I think there's a high probability he'll be convicted. I won't venture a guess whether Judge Cannon will sentence him as he deserves IF he's convicted.

    But there's more to consider ... Trump is already indicted in New York State on relatively minor charges, but Georgia looks to be getting ready to really drop the hammer; charging MULTIPLE felonies PLUS racketeering.

    And Special Counsel Smith appears to be readying another Federal indictment that will come down in Washington, DC where Judge Cannon holds no sway - including a SERIOUS FELONY

    TITLE 18, U.S.C., SECTION 242 - "Deprivation Of Rights Under Color of Law"

    "Whoever, under color of any law, statute, ordinance, regulation, or custom, willfully subjects any person in any State, Territory, Commonwealth, Possession, or District to the deprivation of any rights, privileges, or immunities secured or protected by the Constitution or laws of the United States, ... shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than one year, or both; and if bodily injury results from the acts committed in violation of this section or if such acts include the use, attempted use, or threatened use of a dangerous weapon, explosives, or fire, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both; and if death results from the acts committed in violation of this section or if such acts include kidnapping or an attempt to kidnap, aggravated sexual abuse, or an attempt to commit aggravated sexual abuse, or an attempt to kill, shall be fined under this title, or imprisoned for any term of years OR FOR LIFE, OR BOTH, OR MAY BE SENTENCED TO DEATH."

    • The January 6 riot was part and parcel of the "alternative electors" scheme, which would have deprived voters in several states of rights guaranteed by the 14th & 15th Amendments.

    • Numerous Capitol Police were injured by mob violence on January 6.

    • Rioter Ashley Babbit was shot & killed while attempting to breach the House Chamber, Rioter Rosanne Boyland was trampled to death by fellow rioters - OFFICER BRIAN SICKNICK DIED ON JAN 7 FROM INJURIES SUSTAINED IN THE LINE OF DUTY defending the Capitol from the mob.

    • The mob threatened to kidnap and lynch the Vice President, Mike Pence, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and other Democratic Members of Congress.

    So, that's three "aggravating factors" to the basic charge of using his office (color of law) to deprive (multiple) voters of their right to cast their votes in a fair election; to have their votes counted honestly.

    I don't think Special Counsel Smith will seek the death penalty, but LIFE IN PRISON should definitely be on the table in that case.

    1285:

    waldo @ 1270:

    Unlicensed biolab with infectious agents shut down in California. No idea what's going on here. https://arstechnica.com/health/2023/07/illegal-lab-with-infectious-diseases-and-dead-mice-busted-in-california/

    According to Xiuquin Yao, President of Prestige BioTech it was for "medical testing" ...

    Officials were unable to get any California-based address for either company except for the previous Fresno location from which UMI had been evicted.

    "The other addresses provided for identified authorized agents were either empty offices or addresses in China that could not be verified," court documents said.

    But it sure as hell looks like a Chinese bio-weapons lab to me.

    1286:

    But it sure as hell looks like a Chinese bio-weapons lab to me.

    Let's hope that's not what this is. I agree that your thought did cross my mind, but building weapons of mass destruction in someone else's country is a probable cause of war. And saber rattling aside, I don't think China and the US want to go to war over something like this.

    My guess is that we've stumbled across Biohacking 2.0, where some likely lads decided they could make money of questionable legality off biohacking. Maybe a bit of black medicine, blackmail (dump pathogen in some company's product if they didn't pay protection), shady/shoddy medical treatments (like the Tijuana stem cell businesses).... You know, stuff. The reason I think that is what this mess is is that they didn't evacuate the neighborhood when they cleaned it up. Which they would have, if it had been, say, multiply resistant anthrax.

    We'll find out.

    1287:

    Heteromeles @ 1280:

    Yes to both. I'm sympathetic to range complaints in both EVs and ICs. The problem is that it's hard to estimate range, because it depends on vehicle speed, topography, and whether you have the AC on. These aren't so visible in the IC gas gauge, but with the EV, you can see it deduct 10 miles from your range when you turn the AC on.

    Yeah, but this isn't really about the actual range of the EVs. It's about an elaborate CONSUMER FRAUD.

    Tesla deliberately overstates the range of their EVs, rigs the display on the dash to overstate the available range. Then, when the owners want to have their vehicle serviced BECAUSE they can't get the advertised range, Tesla has a secret organization that cancels service appointments without informing owners of the true reason.

    FRAUD such as this makes EVs LESS USEFUL because you can't be sure if the range meter is telling you the truth.

    I know I can trust the fuel gauge in my IC engine vehicle & adjust my plans as necessary to not strand my self. If I run out of gas, it's my own fault. The fuel gauge worked when the vehicle left the factory. It doesn't lie to me about how much fuel (== charge) I have left & based on that even someone as bad at math as I am can accurately calculate my remaining range.

    ... and if the fuel gauge doesn't work, I CAN get it fixed or replaced.

    I contend the answer to EV range "problems" is the charging infrastructure has to become as ubiquitous as the corner gas station ... and as easy to USE.

    Then range won't matter any more than it matters for my IC engine vehicle. If you need to charge, you pull up to the nearest charger & charge, with just as much convenience as I have when I have to pull into a gas station to fill up.

    1288:

    My guess is that the pundits have it right: Trump's only hope of staying out of prison is winning the 2024 election.

    While this could happen, it looks at the moment like the Republican automated chaos machine isn't working as well as it did in 2016. Biden may be old, but Trump's old, bent, and toxic to everyone who doesn't think he's Jesus Christ and the Last King of Scotland in one. And, despite the chaos' machine's best efforts so far, a majority of people seem to be noticing that the economy is okay, climate change really is a problem, and Republican leaders have become destructive assholes to stay in the party.

    So my bet, long story short, is that Trump loses the 2024 election to Sleepy Joe, and then spends the rest of his life dealing with the legal cases caused by his venture into politics. No point in making him a martyr with a death penalty, so probably he'll go to prison unless he keels over first. Note that he may well be both a con and on trial...

    Now we'll see what actually happens.

    1289:

    Heteromeles @ 1286:

    But it sure as hell looks like a Chinese bio-weapons lab to me.

    Let's hope that's not what this is. I agree that your thought did cross my mind, but building weapons of mass destruction in someone else's country is a probable cause of war. And saber rattling aside, I don't think China and the US want to go to war over something like this.

    Launching massive spy balloons at the U.S. is a "casus belli", but they did it anyway. They're doing other stupid shit that risks sparking a war nobody wants.

    The problem with China is the top guy has replaced all the next level guys with YES MEN ... there's no one around him who can say, "Wait a minute ... this is a really stupid, dangerous idea!" without getting the chop.

    But that also means a lot of shit goes on without anyone in charge actually evaluating the risk because they're all afraid to ask for permission in case the leader might disapprove ...

    Xi Jinping And The Challenge of Chinese Leadership

    My guess is it's a "private enterprise" action by the PLA intended to evade U.S. export/import controls, safety & sanitation regulations, banking laws & regulations ... but NOT actually sanctioned as official policy by the top guy in Beijing.

    They didn't think they were going to get caught, so they didn't bother considering how it might look from the "American" point of view.

    1290:

    Heteromeles @ 1288:

    My guess is that the pundits have it right: Trump's only hope of staying out of prison is winning the 2024 election.

    While this could happen, it looks at the moment like the Republican automated chaos machine isn't working as well as it did in 2016. Biden may be old, but Trump's old, bent, and toxic to everyone who doesn't think he's Jesus Christ and the Last King of Scotland in one. And, despite the chaos' machine's best efforts so far, a majority of people seem to be noticing that the economy is okay, climate change really is a problem, and Republican leaders have become destructive assholes to stay in the party.

    So my bet, long story short, is that Trump loses the 2024 election to Sleepy Joe, and then spends the rest of his life dealing with the legal cases caused by his venture into politics. No point in making him a martyr with a death penalty, so probably he'll go to prison unless he keels over first. Note that he may well be both a con and on trial...

    Now we'll see what actually happens.

    Trump's "win" in 2016 was a fluke. He didn't expect to win in 2016. It was all a swindle from the get go. He was gonna' take all the campaign contributions for himself after the election was over.

    That's why his term was so chaotic. He didn't have any clue what he was going to do if he did win.

    It wouldn't have happened at all if not for James Comey's last minute intervention in the election about "her emails". Obama should have fired his ass FOR CAUSE! right then and there ... since the law would not allow Comey to be taken out and shot pour encourager les autres like he deserved.

    The ONLY bright spot for me in this upcoming election is that a President has no power to issue pardons for STATE crimes. If Trump were to eke out another fluke win he could still be imprisoned by the State of Georgia** or by New York.

    The only other worry I have about the 2024 election is the GQP somehow coming to their senses and nominating a stealth MAGAt.

    **The Governor of Georgia does not have pardon power, so even if a MAGAt were to win that office he/she could not pardon Trump if he were convicted of the state charges.

    1291:

    "Unfortunately, the "Diesels are DEATH!" fanatics will press on"

    I don't understand who it is that makes money out of this. There must be someone, because it's so obviously an artificially induced panic, but I can't see how any of the usual suspects (government, car makers, oil companies, etc) get anything out of it.

    It looks like a more serious issue is diesel emissions, and the health problems that result. See (PDF):

    https://www.osha.gov/sites/default/files/publications/OSHA-3590.pdf

    TL;DR What is Diesel Particulate Matter (DPM)?

    • DPM is a component of diesel exhaust (DE) that includes soot particles made up primarily of carbon, ash, metallic abrasion particles, sulfates and silicates.

    • Diesel soot particles have a solid core consisting of elemental carbon, with other substances attached to the surface, including organic carbon compounds known as aromatic hydrocarbons.

    What are the health effects of DE/DPM?

    • Short term exposure to high concentrations of DE/DPM can cause headache, dizziness, and irritation of the eye, nose and throat severe enough to distract or disable miners and other workers.

    • Prolonged DE/DPM exposure can increase the risk of cardiovascular, cardiopulmonary and respiratory disease and lung cancer.

    1292:

    It wouldn't have happened at all if not for James Comey's last minute intervention in the election about "her emails". Obama should have fired his ass FOR CAUSE! right then and there ... since the law would not allow Comey to be taken out and shot pour encourager les autres like he deserved.

    This would have been seen as highly partisan by a lot of Americans - certainly by most Republicans. Even presidents have limits...

    1293:

    Diesel Particulate Matter

    I had a feeling this was it but didn't have time to dig out the facts.

    I suspect it is the same issue as breathing Canadian wild fire soot.

    Yes I know it doesn't have to be Canadian soot but that's what covered 1/4 of our land mass recently.

    1294:

    Don't just blame Comey, "Bothsiderism" in the media is a real problem, leading some voters to (Temporarily) believe a conservative Democrat was little different from a Republican. I also suspect many voters had little clue of the acceleration of the "Overton window" in North American conservatives, and that there was no way a GOP administration could be as competent as Bush II. In fairness, if the media had accurately described the choices, it would've elicited an (Even more) unpleasant attack from the usual suspects.

    1295:

    Well, JP Aerospace http://www.jpaerospace.com/ says their ATO (Airship To Orbit) will...

    1296:

    as breathing Canadian wild fire soot

    Similar but the reason they mention the metals and aromatics in the diesel is that those are not so much found in woodsmoke. Which is not to say that woodsmoke is benign, just that there's carcinogenic woodsmoke and then there's "like that, but with added carcinogens and a wider variety of allergens".

    There's a whole list of "better wood stoves" that have been invented over the years are shipped to third world countries in an effort to reduce the amount of lung disease, especially in women. Apparently we should have been shipping them to Canada...

    1297:

    Well, JP Aerospace http://www.jpaerospace.com/ says their ATO (Airship To Orbit) will

    Not quite. The ATO as patented is a three-stage system: 800' lambda-shaped ascender airships to go from ground to 140,000', dark sky floating permanent stations at 140k' (think of five mile-long airships holding an inhabited hub aloft in a starfish configuration), where passengers and cargo transfer to a floating spaceport, and mile-long, hypersonic orbital airships that are inflated at and fly to orbit from the dark sky station, and return to there. The orbiters accelerate very slowly and get lift from their freaking huge wings. Only the orbiter flies in the mesosphere, and it would come apart if it launched from the ground.

    (gets on hobby horse) This is why I support them on Patreon, and suggest every fun-loving space nut do the same. They're like the "raft nuts" who build balsa log or bulrush rafts and sail them across the Pacific. Except JP is considerably more methodical and safety conscious than most raft nuts, AFAIK.

    So yes, by all means check out the link, buy the book, buy their merch, fly a pongsat...(/gallops hobby horse off towards the horizon)

    Anyway, something that kind of resembled Powell's airships may have flown over Phoenix in 1997: the infamous "Phoenix Lights" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix_Lights ). Was it Powell's work? No. He did build a lambda-shaped 175' long test airship for the USAF In 2004-ish, but it was destroyed by a high wind while being prepped for its first test flight, and the USAF scrapped the project.

    The thing that bugs me is that the ATO program is mostly John Powell's passion project, and he's gotten pretty far with shoestring funding and a bunch of volunteers. I can pretty easily see some aerospace designers going a lot further, a lot faster, with even a bit of military funding. Have they? I dunno. But you'd need something like Powell's orbiter to fly in the mesosphere. Launching and retrieving it from the ground would be quite challenging, too. There have been rumors of giant boomerang airships, so perhaps they exist, as high atmosphere techno-nekton to supplement the floating techno-plankton of balloon platforms that so many entities launch these days.

    1298:

    Er, Idi Amin styled himself as the Last King of Scotland ). Trumpolini has at most that sort of fingertip hold in reality...

    1299:

    Er, Idi Amin styled himself as the Last King of Scotland ). Trumpolini has at most that sort of fingertip hold in reality..

    You might find this 2016 clip amusing...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FPrJxTvgdQ

    1300:

    Thanks for reminding me of that video; it's spot on. Trevor Noah had a good point when he called Trump America's African President. He's egotistical, delusional, crooked, bigoted, and he makes money by grifting his country and his followers. What's not presidential?

    1301:

    Don't just blame Comey, ...

    I give Comey the bulk of the blame for Clinton's loss. When he told Americans about the FBI's investigation of Clinton just days before the election, he neglected to mention that Trump was also under investigation.

    Of course, Russia gets a share of the blame.

    1302:

    God help us all.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66351785

    Starmer will doubtless mimic that shortly.

    1303:

    Pigeon (1275) noted: "Levels of nitrogen oxides were falling in more or less a straight line for a couple of decades or more... To ignore a potential problem while it exists and then start making a fuss after it doesn't any more is not sensible."

    I confess to some concern over the nitrogen-enhanced gas that's been rolled out across North America. The nominal goal is to clean the engine and improve performance, but in practice, this is going to add a shit-ton (unofficial metric unit) of nitrogen oxides to the air. There are appropriate concerns about this from everyone except the fossil fuel industry (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-talk-nitrogen-enriched-gas/). The fossil fuel folk note that most NOx results from reaction conditions inside the engine; they conveniently don't concede that adding nitrogen via the fuel is unlikely to decrease NOx emissions.

    As the SciAm article notes, more research should have been done on the consequences of this new and improved exhaust. The bad news will undoubtedly emerge in a few years. As Pigeon notes, waiting that long doesn't seem particularly sensible.

    Here's a prediction: when it turns out that all those nitrogen oxides turn out to be eutrophication-inducing emissions, the fossil fuel will start touting the benefits for nitrogen-deficient northern ecosystems. ("Deficient" being a relative term. Nitrogen levels tend to decrease faster than phosphorus levels with increasing latitude, so northern ecosystems can become nitrogen-deficient, relatively speaking. Eternal caveat: Of course, it depends...)

    1304:

    EC
    The problem with a lot of "LTN's" - hint - I live in one.
    Is that they are very badly designed indeed.
    They are particularly bad for severely disabled people, reliant on "taxi" ( In all & broadest senses of the word ) services.
    What should be done is not "total blockage" - which all-too-often happens, but an allowance to filter through, slowly, with lots of twists & turns ... the locals can then get in & out of their "large block" without unnecessarily travelling extra miles, but stopping "outsiders" from rat-running.
    Needless to say the London Borough of What the Fuck screwed the pooch, completely & utterly.

    1305:

    Yes I know it doesn't have to be Canadian soot but that's what covered 1/4 of our land mass recently.

    I've lived in southern Ontario for three decades. When I moved here half of our air pollution was from America; that proportion increased when we shut down our coal-fired generating stations.

    What was particularly amusing was when New York (state) complained when that pollution drifted south again — apparently we were supposed to purify the air while it was over Canada?!?

    1306:

    shit-ton (unofficial metric unit)

    That's Imperial. The metric unit is a shit-tonne. :-)

    1307:

    I've lived in southern Ontario for three decades. When I moved here half of our air pollution was from America; that proportion increased when we shut down our coal-fired generating stations.

    Yes we exported our acid rain to the north.

    I've never understood why the tar sands folks just don't build electrical generating plants and export their dirty oil via electrons. Much less controversy crossing the border.

    Your comment made me lookup current news about Sudbury. Seems it no longer resembles a lunar landscape from the mining and smelting operations. And isn't generating acie rain any more. Massive clean up.

    1308:

    "I confess to some concern over the nitrogen-enhanced gas that's been rolled out across North America."

    Top Fuel for all? Holy shit. I agree that it's a distinctly dodgy idea and I'm somewhat baffled to hear it's actually been done.

    (OK, "Top Fuel" is an exaggeration; it's the name for taking the idea as far as it can possibly go, though. Note also that actual Top Fuel exhaust is unlikely to be a useful point of comparison.)

    I suppose some of the thinking is that nitro groups will start to react at a much lower temperature than the actual combustion temperature of the fuel as a whole, and at those temperatures the nitrogen will enthusiastically recombine to N2 without giving in to the temptation to do anything more interesting, so when the temperature does reach actual combustion levels it's no different from the nitrogen in the air. (Due to that same enthusiasm ammonia will burn in air to nitrogen and water only, without the nitrogen being oxidised any further than that; and if you feed an engine nitrous oxide the principal effect is simply that it decomposes and supplies more oxygen for combustion.)

    They may also be hoping that the early heat release will broaden and flatten the temperature vs. time curve of combustion, so the peak temperatures and pressures are lower and thus less conducive to forming nitrogen oxides.

    If both of those expectations pan out then it could actually reduce the level of nitrogen oxide emissions. However, the proportion of nitrogen that gets oxidised "as things are" is so small that it doesn't take more than a tiny amount of other behaviour to make things worse rather than better. It's entirely possible that a few parts per million of added nitro groups in the fuel will evade decomposition, or will react in some other way that does not free the nitrogen as N2.

    You can readily enough relate the variations with temperature and pressure of the equilibrium constants of the major sub-reactions to the curves of temperature and pressure over time (and the other way round), calculate how fast those sub-reactions are going and in which direction at any point during combustion, and work out what products you will get in what proportions. But you won't get six-figure accuracy even for an idealised calculation; there are too many unknowns to do anything other than an idealised calculation; the process in an actual engine won't be the same; and when you throw it into use in millions of engines, none of which have been designed for that fuel, in all states of maintenance and deterioration from "brand new" to "about to fall apart", I don't see that it's possible to have any real confidence that things won't end up worse rather than better.

    (As an aside, I wonder if whatever mix they're adding contains enough nitroethane that people will be able to fractionally-distil their fuel tanks to evade precursor controls...)

    1309:

    I would expect wood smoke to contain craploads of aromatics. Lignin is basically an unholy mix of phenols and small sugars, all polymerised into giant random molecules like mad mutant Bakelite. Then you burn it at relatively low temperatures with loads of cool spots, and out comes any decomposition product you can think of. Come to that, the original source for phenol was pyrolysis of really really old squashed wood.

    1310:

    I don't think particulates are involved in conflict between repeated reductions in regulatory limits and what engine designers can actually do. In that case, they've managed to find a solution, even if it is a bit crap. It's nitrogen oxides that are the really difficult one, because the temperatures and pressures make their production inherent no matter how completely you can burn the actual fuel.

    They are, though, particularly relevant to the question of where stuff actually comes from. The particulates generated from tyres and roads as they scrub against each other are much the same thing in size and chemical composition, and brake dust is another source. AIUI (probably from previous posts on here) the mixture in central London is about half and half diesel and tyres/roads/brakes, from a mixture of vehicles including an unusually high proportion of diesel buses and taxis. So in areas with a more normal proportion it'll include correspondingly less diesel. However, the road and tyre stuff tends to be overlooked.

    (I doubt the discussion over how much difference regenerative braking on electric cars might make is all that significant, considering how long a set of brake pads lasts compared to a set of tyres, and how much material is lost from each as they progress from new to worn out.)

    I like the third blobbed para. Reminds me of running single cylinder diesel generators on the load bank in a cloud of exhaust :)

    1311:

    »Trump's "win" in 2016 was a fluke.«

    Nope.

    It was the predictable (and yes, I did predict he would win!), result of giving a lot of voters in USA a very unpalatable choice: Either Trump or a woman as president - pick your poison.

    1312:

    Indeed, shit-tonne (unit abbreviation: st) It's basically a long shit ton.

    1313:

    We are way past 300, so I'd like to ask Heteromeles' opinion of this, please:

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/30/2182243/-Before-Fighting-Forest-Fire-with-Fire-First-Tell-the-Truth

    Superficially it makes sense to me, but I am aware I don't actually understand it.

    1314:

    PH-K
    AND "Comey" AND deliberately carefully targeting the Electoral College votes, not the popular vote AND Putin's support ...
    IQ45 himself was "just" the front-man.
    Indeed, I suspect he still is, for the Fascists backing him.
    Yes / No?

    1315:

    In RE: AI

    Google Maps AI is STUPID.

    Click on a point at one end of the Blue Ridge Parkway and ask it to plot a route to a point at the other end of the Blue Ridge Parkway and it can't figure out that you want to drive down the Blue Ridge Parkway!

    I want to know HOW LONG the drive is at the speed traffic flows along the Parkway.

    Google can give me some idea of how long it's going to take me to get TO the Parkway (3 to 3.5 hours depending on the route & what point I want to join the parkway - 3 hours to just south of Roanoke, VA; 3:39 to Rockfish Gap at the northern terminus).

    So I leave the house at Oh-Dark-Thirty and arrive at the Parkway in time for sunrise (sixish to sevenish depending on the time of year) ... anyway I can adjust to target the golden hour before dawn.

    Now I want to plan where I'm going to stop for lunch ... how far can I get between 1:00 & 2:00 pm? How far can I get before the evening golden hour begins?

    Google Maps doesn't seem to want to give me THAT information.

    Suggestions?

    1316:

    AlanD2 @ 1292:

    It wouldn't have happened at all if not for James Comey's last minute intervention in the election about "her emails". Obama should have fired his ass FOR CAUSE! right then and there ... since the law would not allow Comey to be taken out and shot pour encourager les autres like he deserved.

    This would have been seen as highly partisan by a lot of Americans - certainly by most Republicans. Even presidents have limits...

    Yeah, SO? Fuck 'em!

    Comey's interference into the election was itself highly partisan. Obama wasn't running for reelection and "a lot of Americans - certainly ... most Republicans" were going to accuse him whatever he did.

    Comey violated The Hatch Act. The penalty for violating The Hatch Act is to be fired from your government job.

    Plus Comey involved himself in partisan politics in July when he usurped the Attorney General's prerogative to "announce" the results of the government's witch hunt investigation into Hunter Biden's laptop Clinton's email server.

    DoJ policy is for the FBI to STAY OUT of politics and Comey violated those policies as well even before his egregious misconduct in October.

    He could have been, and should have been, fired THEN, for that misconduct.

    1317:

    We are way past 300, so I'd like to ask Heteromeles' opinion of this, please: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/30/2182243/-Before-Fighting-Forest-Fire-with-Fire-First-Tell-the-Truth. Superficially it makes sense to me, but I am aware I don't actually understand it.

    It's really problematic, possibly conservative agitprop. Ignore it. Among other things, it misrepresents fire ecology, USFS management, Indian fire, the history of fire suppression, and how the big firestorms work.

    I completely agree that people on all sides of the issue lie for profit, and that this is part of the problem. Unfortunately, this is one of the lies.

    Thanks for raising it, though.

    1318:

    shit-tonne

    How does that relate to the fukton (I believe the default is the imperial or British fukton, given the common specification of a "metric fukton". Not sure which is larger, just that they're apparently different enough that it's useful to specify).

    I hear fukton a lot more than shit ton in Australia and I vaguely recall it was similar in Aotearoa.

    1319:

    I just tried this and got two suggestions, one of which was the blue ridge parkway and the other a southern route with an identical time.

    1320:

    Re: Room-temp semiconductors

    This is the most recent article I've seen. The irony is that his research was published by Nature. As mentioned in the article below: the Nature news team is separate from their journal team.

    ‘'A very disturbing picture’: another retraction imminent for controversial physicist

    Ranga Dias will have a second paper revoked. A journal’s investigation found apparent data fabrication.'

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02401-2

    Extreme Heat -- Body & airplanes

    Strongly recommend the article below. Maybe folks here already knew this but it's the first time I've ever read about how extreme heat can lead to organ failure.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/07/23/1189506023/heres-what-happens-to-the-body-in-extreme-temperatures-and-how-heat-becomes-dead#:~:text=Rap%20Is%20Local-,Heat%20kills%20in%203%20main%20ways.,safe%20in%20the%20heat%20wave.

    The below was also news to me because I thought that the major issue with higher temps [GW} and flying was (maybe) stronger winds. Nope!

    Related to this, I'm wondering how this would apply to the fire monitoring/reporting drones I mentioned -- I have no idea how this stuff scales. Also wondering how higher temps impact EV and ICE engine efficiency.

    https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/why-extreme-heat-might-cancel-your-flight

    About that forest fire article ...

    My preference is for an international body studying forest fires across a variety of ecologies in order to identify how various factors interact. I'm concerned that what happens to be true in SoCal gets exported everywhere else and then (like the Australian rabbit solution) it not only fails spectacularly but creates additional problems. I'm also for getting as much info from indigenous folk as possible even though there's a strong likelihood that some info has been lost or misremembered.

    1321:
    Launching massive spy balloons at the U.S. is a "casus belli"

    Is that so? How about launching spy balloons at anyone else? (Spoiler: U.S. Sent 'Weather' Balloons to Spy on China and the Soviet Union in the 1950s)

    1322:

    A good friend of mine, a Republican who would have been rolling in his grave when Donny was elected, once said to me that Americans would vote for a woman -- but not THAT woman. It remains to be seen if he was totally right.

    1323:

    Conservatives once again leap the defence of rights enshrined in the constitution... /s

    harm the freedom of motorists

    ... to drive and park on the footpath, run down pedestrians and demand subsidised parking wherever they want to go.

    I do wonder how many of those MPs are also strongly in favour of people's right to drive where they live and are vigorous supporters of new motorways that will run right next to their houses. No need to speculate about whether they want to die in the fire they started, we have observed that they do {eyeroll}.

    1324:

    Greg Tingey @ 1314:

    PH-K
    AND "Comey" AND deliberately carefully targeting the Electoral College votes, not the popular vote AND Putin's support
    ...
    IQ45 himself was "just" the front-man.
    Indeed, I suspect he still is, for the Fascists backing him.
    Yes / No?

    No. DJT is "front-man" for no one except DJT. The Fascists were (and are) trying to ride his coat-tails, but HE is not "fronting" for them. He's using them just like he uses anybody he can.

    Keep in mind that DJT never expected to win the nomination and having won it didn't expect to win the election. His win in 2016 was a fluke. There was no "carefully targeting the Electoral College", and although Putin's interference was significant, Trump wasn't looking at how the Russians could help him win an election, he was looking to secure a "Trump Moscow" hotel deal.

    In fact, "winning" the election thwarted his plans because he couldn't raise and pocket massive amounts of money while he was in office ... the way he's doing in his current campaign.

    His run has nothing to do with wanting to BE President. It's a means to an end ... several ends - revenge on anyone who opposes him, power to thwart the courts holding him to account and filling his own pockets with filthy lucre - how much can he skim off for his own enrichment.

    And it's NOT really clear which of these is the PRIMARY motive.

    1325:

    Mike Collins @ 1319:

    I just tried this and got two suggestions, one of which was the blue ridge parkway and the other a southern route with an identical time.

    I'd like to know how you did that, because I can't get it to use the Blue Ridge Parkway even STARTING ON the Blue Ridge Parkway.

    1326:

    The United States also did more intrusive things than balloon overflights...

    e.g. Sneaking into Soviet territory to tap underwater communication cables.

    "We" Murricans resent other nations doing to us what "we" have done to them.

    Territorial incursions and aggressive aircraft interception incidents by either side were/are risky acts, but fortunately none of them have triggered a major conflict (so far).

    1327:

    anonemouse @ 1321:

    Launching massive spy balloons at the U.S. is a "casus belli"

    Is that so? How about launching spy balloons at anyone else? (Spoiler: U.S. Sent 'Weather' Balloons to Spy on China and the Soviet Union in the 1950s)

    So? It was stupid when we did it then and it's stupid for the Chinese to be doing it now. Best that can be said for then is the RISK of sparking a war no one wants was less than it is today & the consequences of a miscalculation could be much worse.

    Note the U.S. also sent spy planes around the edges of Soviet Airspace (and at least once right through the middle). Some of those spy planes got shot down in international airspace (and one wasn't) ... but we didn't go to war over those & THEY didn't go to war over the other one.

    That's beside the point. Eisenhower had advisors who could tell him when the payoff was not enough to justify the risk and he couldn't send anyone who disagreed with him off to the reeducation camps OR WORSE ... so quite a few harebrained ideas got quashed before they left the ground.

    More of them probably should have been ...

    1328:

    How does that relate to the fukton

    Much messier and smellier.

    1329:

    I suspect the rest of the world is usually out of fucks to give, so having a whole fukton is unimaginable luxury.

    1330:

    Related to this, I'm wondering how this would apply to the fire monitoring/reporting drones I mentioned -- I have no idea how this stuff scales.

    Reduced lift in hot air applies to everything that flies - airplanes, helicopters, drones, birds, hang gliders, parachutes, etc.

    However, it is easier to launch rockets! 😄

    1331:

    In fact, "winning" the election thwarted his [DJT] plans because he couldn't raise and pocket massive amounts of money while he was in office ... the way he's doing in his current campaign.

    Nobody should worry that Trump went broke while President. He did quite well charging the secret service for rooms at his hotels and golf carts at his golf courses.

    And anyone who wanted a favor would likely start by spending money at his properties...

    1332:

    And it's NOT really clear which of these is the PRIMARY motive.

    I think we can safely say that his PRIMARY motive now is to not die in prison...

    1333:

    motive now is to not die in prison...

    I can't be the only one who hopes he lives a very long time... in prison.

    1334:

    Finally figured out where the keyboard & mouse were for the new iMac and I have it up and running.

    Now all I got to do is learn how to use it. 😏

    1335:

    AlanD2 @ 1331:

    "In fact, "winning" the election thwarted his [DJT] plans because he couldn't raise and pocket massive amounts of money while he was in office ... the way he's doing in his current campaign."

    Nobody should worry that Trump went broke while President. He did quite well charging the secret service for rooms at his hotels and golf carts at his golf courses.

    And anyone who wanted a favor would likely start by spending money at his properties...

    I'm not worried about him going broke. I hope he does. I hope he loses EVERYTHING and dies a pauper while serving a life sentence.

    I'm just pointing out his run for the Presidency in 2016 started out as a swindle that went awry & by "winning" the election, he didn't make as much money (by several decimal places at least) as he expected to grift off of running.

    I'm also pointing out that Trump is NOT fronting for anyone but Trump ... the Fascists trying to ride his coat tails don't matter to him one bit; he doesn't give a shit if they succeed or not. He only cares what they can do FOR him.

    Much solipsistic ... the greatest, best, MOST solipsistic EVER!

    1336:

    I can't get it to use the Blue Ridge Parkway even STARTING ON the Blue Ridge Parkway.

    Something weird is going on there. When I tried having it plot a route between Great Smoky Mountains National Park and Shenandoah National Park it offered routes along highways, which is fair enough as a first suggestion. But it wouldn't let me manually drag the planned route over onto secondary roads, which isn't normal behavior. Playing around, I find I can do this in the same region when selecting other routes - Pigeon Forge to Newport, no problem.

    Trying Great Smoky Mountains National Park to Blue Ridge Parkway to Shenandoah National Park didn't work either; it plots an intercept through one point on the Parkway and calls that good.

    Manually measuring distances along the road becomes impractical quickly.

    I'm not sure if the Parkway is explicitly tagged as a route that shouldn't be encouraged for transportation or if the software is just confused.

    I suspect the best bet is to have a good description of the route on paper, and regard electronic navigation as a secondary suggestion at best.

    1337:

    I think we can safely say that his PRIMARY motive now is to not die in prison...

    Indeed.

    It looks as if the federal charges are going to get precedence, but I'd also be happy to see New York State get him. They have a delightful maximum security place called the Clinton Correctional Facility.

    1338:

    Just watched the movie "Being There" for the first time in 20 years. Give or take.

    It seem worth a watch given the current politics of the planet.

    1339:

    I selected the start of the parkway. Google wouldn’t let me select the end from my iPad Mini so i selected the road just after the end.

    1340:

    For those of you subscribed to Nebula ColdFusionTv has a video up apart ultra-efficient EVs that gives a few highlights of a few of them.

    Focus is the $US300k Lightyear car that came from a solar race team, but went bust and may be coming back as a cheaper one later maybe. The Aptera is mentioned, it's still a couple of years away (every year for the last decade) but has the radcal looks of something that's actually plausible. Main point is that a few manufacturers are on the "what range can we get out of building solar in" bandwagon already.

    It echoes some commenters here with the emphasis on ultra efficient running meaning smaller battery and so on. Of course other commenters here already have smaller, lighter, more efficient EVs that are (sadly?) missing the "cost more than $US10,000" part of the deal. eBikes FTW :) There are many more options every year in the "cargo ebike" or "quadricycle" category and while some are pricey I don't think any exceed $US20k (yet...)

    The rest of you may get one free video, or it'll turn up on youtube eventually. https://nebula.tv/videos/coldfusion-a-solar-car-that-can-drive-for-months https://www.youtube.com/@ColdFusion/videos

    1341:

    As you say. He has doubled down on that, in the hope of creating another bogus row, such as was so successful in 2019.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rishi-sunak-20mph-speed-limit-ulez-b2384711.html

    Greg is right that the problem with LTNs (and 'traffic calming' generally) is appalling planning (*), but that does NOT mean that promoting an increase in car use is the way to go.

    He has also made in clear that he is doubling down on pork-barrel politics for (mostly foreign) multinationals and net-zero efforts - net-zero progress, that is.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-66357043

    (*) Cambridge has a really bad problem, here, with London (yes, London - Westminster and Whitehall) trying to foist a FIVE-FOLD increase in the number of houses, with the only proposed infrastructure a completely arse-facing Oxford-Cambridge rail project. Northstowe writ large - that has no shops, no public facilities, no doctor, and a totally joke public transport system.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-66357043

    1342:

    In the UK, we haven't YET been inflicted with the solar-powered car bullshit - yes, I know that it's not complete bullshit in Oz, most of the USA or even during moderately fine days in a British summer, but (as a realistic solution for Britain) it sucks.

    1343:

    England has voted for a woman once. Yes, the French are right ("le vice anglais"), because she was a dominatrix, and the two PMs elected by the Conservative party have both been wannabee dominatrixes. One so wannabee that it was hard to tell what she was trying to be.

    I can't remember if Scotland or Wales voted for the first, but I am pretty sure that neither did more than once, if that. Northern Ireland is, er, different.

    1344:

    England has voted for a woman once.

    It's genuinely weird to me, because it's not as if there's any shortage of women leaders around the world who cover most of the spectrum, the Italians even have an "I'm not a fascist, honest. Well, any more. Trust me on this" one. Sure, she's not a patch on Berlisconi for excitement in her private life (as far as we know) but you can't have everything (where would you put it?)

    Not to mention the Engs being ruled by the iron fist of a very regal not-man for so long. And if you believe Farridge et al your country was run by Merkel for some time as well. Or is the problem that Eton don't admit the lesser gender even if they've been force to bend on race?

    FFS, even Australia has had a female Prime Minster.

    1345:

    Oh, it's bullshit here as well. I'm mostly excited by the idea of a small, lightweight electric car. A few generations of those and we might end up with pedal power being a useful boost to range :)

    1346:

    They have a delightful maximum security place called the Clinton Correctional Facility.

    I think we can safely say that maximum security prisons are out if Trump does indeed spend time in the slammer. I don't doubt he will find a nice country club prison...

    https://www.cnbc.com/2012/01/19/The-Best-Places-to-Go-to-Prison.html

    1347:

    Scott Sanford @ 1336:

    I can't get it to use the Blue Ridge Parkway even STARTING ON the Blue Ridge Parkway.

    Something weird is going on there. When I tried having it plot a route between Great Smoky Mountains National Park and Shenandoah National Park it offered routes along highways, which is fair enough as a first suggestion. But it wouldn't let me manually drag the planned route over onto secondary roads, which isn't normal behavior. Playing around, I find I can do this in the same region when selecting other routes - Pigeon Forge to Newport, no problem.

    Trying Great Smoky Mountains National Park to Blue Ridge Parkway to Shenandoah National Park didn't work either; it plots an intercept through one point on the Parkway and calls that good.

    Manually measuring distances along the road becomes impractical quickly.

    I'm not sure if the Parkway is explicitly tagged as a route that shouldn't be encouraged for transportation or if the software is just confused.

    I suspect the best bet is to have a good description of the route on paper, and regard electronic navigation as a secondary suggestion at best.

    I'm not thinking about electronic navigation. You don't really need it to follow the Parkway.

    I'm trying to "plan" an itenerary before I go; give myself a realistic time-table for driving the Parkway so I can print it out on paper before I leave the house ... which Google Maps does quite handily for the portion from my house to where I want to get on the parkway (and the portion going home from wherever I tell it I'm going to start the return journey).

    Where might I take rest breaks; how far am I likely to be able drive in a certain timeframe so I know when/where to bail & start heading home or where I want to try to make hotel reservations for a multiday trip ... which connections to regular highways should I plan on using to get to a gas station.

    I know from experience (spreadsheet) I have ~250 miles "range" - up to maybe 300+ miles on the highway using cruise control while I'm getting there. So, IF I leave the house with a full tank, where do I need to plan on looking for an exit from the Parkway that will lead me to a gas station I can use?

    Those are the kind of things I do all of the time with Google Maps for other trips, it just seems STUPID that it won't cooperate when I try to do it for the portion of the trip down (or up) the Parkway itself.

    1348:

    From that BBC article: "Sunak says even when net zero is reached, a quarter of UK energy needs will come from oil and gas"

    For fuck's sake.

    "a completely arse-facing Oxford-Cambridge rail project."

    That is something I've deplored the lack of all bar a handful of times I've travelled to or from Cambridge. Cambridge is a pain in the arse to get to on the train and it seems that the closer you are to start with the more of a pain in the arse it is. Especially Bedford, since it used to be on the direct route, but now you have to go via Leicester, which makes Bedford to Cambridge by train a considerably longer and even more trundlingly circuitous journey than Birmingham to Cambridge is (and that's bad enough).

    More generally, the railway system in this country has suffered from being butchered under, and still suffers from being planned under, the assumption that the only place anyone wants to go to from anywhere is London. It looks like a raggedy spider-web centred on London with the spokes still there but most of the (formerly existing) transverse links removed, so if you want to go somewhere that isn't on your own spoke, you have to go far enough out of your way that the journey becomes several times longer in order to reach one of the transverse links that is still there. To restore the ability to go directly from Oxford to Cambridge would link six spokes at a distance from London where the current lack of a link is a particularly gaping hole.

    So it has infuriated me for decades to watch every proposal to reopen all or part of this route fail to produce anything, and it is even worse that the manner of the failures has deteriorated from "dither, fuck about, whine about the cost, fade out" to "dither, fuck about, whine about the cost, spend more money paying people to write glossy PDFs whining about the cost than the entire cost for the whole project that was being whined about the last time round, then pretend to be saving money by inventing a new complicated and expensive way to fuck it up". Not to mention the reduction in scope such that, if it ever does get to Cambridge, by current thinking it'll be in such a stunted form that it can support only an absolutely minimal service that is too shit to be much use, and lack the capacity to handle even a single train beyond that, while they are still allowing people to think that it'll have the kind of capacity you'd expect from a proper job and be able to support new freight routes, new through passenger services from other parts of the country and all the other things it's supposed to provide.

    1349:

    Elderly Cynic: 1226: No, that's not it. I was involved in both the original project that introduced the concept and C99.

    Were you part of WG14 when I was? I can't figure out who you are, if so.

    (You can email me at clive at davros.org if you want.)

    1350:

    @ 1344: the thing with England is that it's a particularly bad advertisement for female prime ministers. We've had three, and they've all been shit.

    The thing with Farrago claiming we were run by Merkel is that we'd probably have been better off if he'd been right.

    "we might end up with pedal power being a useful boost to range"

    I seem to remember some bloke called Clive had that idea...

    It does occasionally cross my mind that since the motor on my mobility scooter is only 200W, then if modern solar panels really are all they're cracked up to be, I ought to be able to mount one as a canopy and run the thing entirely off raw solar power. On a sunny day. Only those don't seem to be happening this summer, and in practice the main function of the solar canopy would end up being keeping the rain off me.

    1351:

    iMac update: I figured out how to make the scroll wheel work the way I'm used to using it and I updated to OS Ventura.

    I'm going to have to RE-do Time Machine, and I still have to figure out how much of the iCloud I'm comfortable with using.

    Then all I have to do is figure out what I'm going to use it for.

    Word of advice - NEVER go into Costco when you're HUNGRY. Your impulse control will desert you the first SHINY you encounter ... but it really was an almost unbeliveably great price.

    1352:

    Yes :-) Message sent.

    1353:

    Yes, but don't imagine that the proposal would do anything useful in that respect. It isn't that it is a completely stupid idea in principle, but the organisation is determined to feed it in south of Cambridge, thus bypassing the aforementioned Northstowe, and despite the northern route being cheaper. That seems to be predicated on a large number of people using it as a commuter route, which is obviously damn-fool. Plus it is supposed to provide a backup route from Felixstowe to the Midlands - and the southern route takes the freight trains through the Newmarket tunnel, Cambridge itself and the bridge on the A1301, which don't support the modern loading gauge and would cost a fortune and cause immense havoc to upgrade to that.

    1354:

    I am pretty sure that the reason is what I said in #1343. The country (and I mean England) has a managerial / governmental culture of bullying, and the leaders that are chosen are generally ones that are viewed as strong and dominant, and relish that profile. That applies particularly to women, and by the political class, who like being bullied by women (le vice anglais).

    My remarks about the furrcyr, er, electorate who vote for such treatment are not polite. I don't see much hope of improvement in the forseeable future.

    1355:

    EC & others
    Yes ... it's as totally fucked-up as the Cambridge guided pus-way & it has to be deliberate.
    Tories wasting money on public transport so that they can "prove" it's useless, yes?
    Look at Harper & Merriman & Sunak - electrify everything - EXCEPT the railways + the HS omnishambles.

    1356:

    Greg In 1960, aged 12, I went on a school holiday based in Rothesay. I have very vague memories of most of the holiday but very sharp memories of the steam railway journey from Manchester to Glasgow and then Wemyss bay and even sharper memories of the ferry journeys on the Waverley and the Jeannie Deans. Most of the boys in the party (it was a co-educational grammar school) spent their time watching the engine rooms below deck when we travelled on the paddle steamers but watched the scenery on the “normal” ferries.

    1357:

    Sorry! Replied to right person but on the wrong thread.

    1358:

    Mike Collins
    Ah, yes, Glasgow, before the Trams disappeared. - I saw it the once, at about the same time ....
    { I'm two years older than you } Steam trains into Oban, the Firth of Forth with ONE bridge over it - the first road-bridge had started construction )

    1359:

    We need to address rurual US? Oh, you mean the (googles) 17.2% of the population that lives in rural areas?

    1360:

    "As competent as Bush II"? Huh? That's the Bush II who started the Iraq war as a beginning, and ended with the economic collapse of '08?

    1361:

    No, TFG, or a woman that the GOP had spent 20+ years hating and making up stories about. She was a very bad choice. That she was also a hawk, and a neoliberal just topped the bill.

    1362:

    No. The ultrawealthy and ultraconservative chose him as a front man, assuming they'd have more control. You know, just like the German ultrawealthy and ultraconservatives chose that short guy with the Charlie Chaplin mustache, for the same reasons.... Oddly enough, the wealthy just don't seem to get that they don't just "work out" as a front man.

    1363:

    Now just one minute, young man: are you telling us that you didn't learn at your mother's knee the dictum "NEVER go food shopping when hungry"?

    1364:

    whitroth @ 1362
    Exactly my point!
    Thank you for noticing, which other people didn't seem to ....

    1365:

    "NEVER go food shopping when hungry"?

    Personally I've never been attracted to an iMac as relief solution to hunger.

    But I'm weird. So ....

    1366:

    David L @ 1365:

    "NEVER go food shopping when hungry"?

    Personally I've never been attracted to an iMac as relief solution to hunger.

    But I'm weird. So ....

    What can I say?

    I was distracted & my resistance was low. Could have been ANYTHING as long as it was shiny & the sale price was low. If I had really WANTED1 a Mac, you know where I would have gone.

    Probably a good thing they didn't have motorcycles. 🙃

    1 Now that it's set up I'm just coming to the realization of "What the hell am I doing to use this for?"

    1367:

    Well yes, if there's anyone can make Thatcher look good by comparison it's Ms "no-one could have predicted that". OTOH Cameron and Johnson don't exactly stand out from the crowd of men-in-general in any positive way.

    I was also alluding to the other iron fist, HRH Liz, and her long reign. You'd think at least half the population would see her as a positive example of leadership and something to aspire towards. I'm talking about the conservative half of the population here, not the woke left with their silly ideas about liberty, equality and maternity.

    But it's hard to look at the Australian parliament and get a better impression of humanity than the UK one provides. It's smaller and there's less wealth, sure, but we have our rapists and a great deal of drug use, bullying, venal behaviour etc and so on. Not to mention right wing socialists ("from each donor according to their ability to pay, to each company according to their need") and of course we tought you weak-kneed fops a few things about how to deal with refugees and leeches/poor people. Just because we don't have the same internationally renowned schools for privileged boys doesn't mean we don't try... the young sex offenders gentlemen of Sydney are working on their reputation (sorry for the Rupert source but it seemed appropriate).

    1368:

    "What the hell am I doing to use this for?"

    Ordering food online 😎

    1369:

    OFFICER BRIAN SICKNICK DIED ON JAN 7 FROM INJURIES SUSTAINED IN THE LINE OF DUTY defending the Capitol from the mob.

    well, according to the medical examiner the stroke he died from could have been triggered by the stress of events, so kind of, but i dunno if it really merits the all caps

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Brian_Sicknick#Medical_examiner_report

    1370:

    adrian smith @ 1369:

    Meant to highlight him separately from the two rioters who died.

    1371:

    Going back to the screw-ups with ferries etc off the Scottish W coast ....
    I see that, when it comes to launching spacecraft from Unst, it isn't a problem ... for big commerce, but the poor inhabitants can just make do with the SNP ( & everybody else's ) screw-ups.
    Which sounds very familiar.

    1372:

    I think we can safely say that maximum security prisons are out if Trump does indeed spend time in the slammer.

    A reasonable stance, particularly if one is a Trump defense lawyer. But imagine that you're a prosecuting lawyer. Wouldn't it be obvious that a former president needs to be kept in the greatest security available? Particularly if he's being locked up by New York state; New Yorkers have been dealing with the Trump family for decades and many of them have opinions...

    (If you're Donald Trump, you'll have already asked if any prisons have good golf courses.)

    1373:

    Wouldn't it be obvious that a former president needs to be kept in the greatest security available? Particularly if he's being locked up by New York state;

    Based on the past history of the Secret Service dealing with the security of past presidents, I suspect there will be (maybe already in the files) search for a current federal prision with a big open area that isn't in use. And can have a custom set of buildings built for his "residence", dormitories for guards that get to be there full time, admin offices, etc... Razor wire separated from the main prison. Likely out of site. Maybe even with moats and crazy barriers to prevent a Con Air style of nonsense from happening.

    Cost a zillion or so $$$. But about the only way it could happen.

    And it may not even be on the grounds of an existing prison. There are a lot of federal acres not in use or no longer being used sitting around the country. The UF6 diffusion plant where my father worked was on over 700 acres of a government plant set up for munitions manufacturing in WWII. His plant only used 100-200 acres. The rest was a federal reservation used by hunters and boy scout campers and such. I can see them taking over 100 acres to build such a compound.

    1374:

    Yes, that's the kind of thing I mean about it being fucked up more every cycle of dithering it goes through. The currently fashionable set of made-up figures for comparing against other made-up figures as an argument for it being worthwhile are based around providing a commuter service for I think 3 other Northstoweoid schemes which are planned along the A428. Because those 3 schemes are something for which there is some governmental enthusiasm, made-up figures which are based around them are considered much more convincing than those based around any other potential uses, so the other potential uses have been quietly removed from consideration. The problems you mention with using it as a freight route to Felixstowe no longer come into it, because they're planning to build something so minimal that it can only handle the commuter service, and it won't have the capacity for any freight as well. But they're still happy for people at large to carry on thinking it'll be useful for that and other additional possibilities.

    There are similar instances on the more westerly bits. Made-up numbers relating to its place in the railway network as a part of a whole aren't as shiny as numbers made up around a purely local and isolated conception of the route, so the non-local aspects get little or no consideration, while people in general are allowed to carry on thinking that these obviously useful possibilities are in fact still possible.

    It doesn't help at all that the organisation of the railways under privatisation strongly favours an isolated and localised view of things over consideration of the network as an actual network of interoperating parts. But I can't help feeling that Greg's suggestion of a hidden motive of discrediting public transport projects has something in it: appear to be giving the pro-railway public what they are asking for, but make it shit, so it fails to meet expectations and people lose interest in wanting things like that.

    I get the same impression from watching cab ride videos (basically, the only kind of video I do watch) of the recently-reopened north end of the Waverley route. It's very obvious that not only does it have egregious instances of cheap-arsing the infrastructure in a restrictive way, but that they have done these things in such places/manners as to maximise the difficulty and cost of ever upgrading them to the capacity and quality of a conventionally-priced arse. It can cope with the specific service provided at the moment, which is already constrained to be sub-optimal (unless Charlie or other locals have better information), but pretty much any improvement that is likely to become desirable with an increase in popularity - speed, frequency, length of trains - basically can't happen without spending vastly more money to unfuck things than it would have cost to build them properly in the first place. The impression that the answer to the various questions of "wtf did they build $feature like that?" is "to build in latent problems to limit what conflicting ideologies may be able to achieve" is hard to avoid.

    1375:

    Pigeon
    Having tried - & failed - repeatedly ... to trash the NHS, the Railways & the environment, by active measures.
    The tories have, unfortunately, learnt.

    Now, they are appearing to do lots, dithering around, as you say, wasting vast amounbts of money (HS2), whilst actually sabotaging the whole thing, or rather assembly of things, by active neglect.
    SHIT in the rivers + not enough money for the Environment Agency.
    Not designing HS2 right from the start & then huge amounts of dithering.
    Making vast propaganda from "small boats" - which wasn't a problem when we were IN the EU, what a siurprise (!)
    General neglect of the NHS, which Charlie is often on about & all-too-correctly.
    In short, as others have noted, wrecking & looting the wreck.

    1376:

    Regarding Liz, I think that of the concepts you mentioned "maternity" is a lot closer to the mark than "leadership". She spent the last few decades as basically the nation's surrogate granny (and dressed to match). The nice old lady with the lovely smile, but still with the ability to do things like be photographed standing next to the Orange Baboon with an expression that said "This man is a worm" as well as anyone said it in words. The monarchy doesn't really get to do "leadership" unless there's a proper war, and she didn't have one of those (the Falklands doesn't count, and was too long ago to matter anyway).

    1377:

    "Not designing HS2 right from the start & then huge amounts of dithering."

    I prefer to insert the notional comma after "HS2", rather than after "right" :)

    It never was "designed". It was a political propaganda show with non-constant post-hoc notional justifications that could be changed to paper over cracks that appeared. Which is one thing while it's still all up in the air, but the closer you get to having to actually move earth the more cracks appear and the more obvious it becomes that just papering over them isn't going to work.

    1378:

    David L @ 1373:

    Wouldn't it be obvious that a former president needs to be kept in the greatest security available? Particularly if he's being locked up by New York state;

    Based on the past history of the Secret Service dealing with the security of past presidents, I suspect there will be (maybe already in the files) search for a current federal prision with a big open area that isn't in use. And can have a custom set of buildings built for his "residence", dormitories for guards that get to be there full time, admin offices, etc... Razor wire separated from the main prison. Likely out of site. Maybe even with moats and crazy barriers to prevent a Con Air style of nonsense from happening.

    Cost a zillion or so $$$. But about the only way it could happen.]

    And it may not even be on the grounds of an existing prison. There are a lot of federal acres not in use or no longer being used sitting around the country. The UF6 diffusion plant where my father worked was on over 700 acres of a government plant set up for munitions manufacturing in WWII. His plant only used 100-200 acres. The rest was a federal reservation used by hunters and boy scout campers and such. I can see them taking over 100 acres to build such a compound.

    Probably getting the cart before the horse because he ain't been convicted of anything YET, but I expect IF he IS convicted & IF he receives an active sentence, he'll wind up at some place like Butner, NC(Bernard Madoff); Cumberland, MD (Jack Abramoff); Otisville, NY (Michael Cohen); or Miami, FL (Manuel Noriega).

    The Secret Service won't have anything to do with his security at that point, it will be the responsibility of the Bureau of Prisons.

    IF he then served his complete sentence and was released, I'm not clear on whether the Secret Service would resume protective services or not.

    1379:

    Thank you. I did find it suspect, though I am not entirely sure why. Tone of voice, perhaps.

    1380:

    Re: '... whilst actually sabotaging the whole thing, or rather assembly of things, by active neglect'

    I wouldn't call handing out 100 contracts for fossil fuel extraction/processing dithering. Can't find it just now but recently saw a tweet claiming that Rishi & spouse have financial ties to something like 3 out of 5 of the major fossil corps granted licenSe$.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/31/rishi-sunak-approval-100-new-north-sea-oil-and-gas-licences-fossil-fuel-climate-crisis

    Highways and/or trains ...

    Have wondered why not build trains (esp. light rail) directly over the major highways that way no further land will need to be seized/ruined. Start with the lowest traffic routes to work out any issues as well as to build consumer/user confidence. Might be useful to show a financial and tech feasibility analysis plus environmental impact vs. the recent addition to/expansion of London's subway system. (See the 2016 EIA Manual below - free pdf download.)

    https://www.iisd.org/learning/eia/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/EIA-Manual.pdf

    Given which fossil corps got licenses, wonder what the stock market speculations are re: rail related corps. Based on hazy recall of an article I read a few months back, I think that Rishi (or his wife) still have ties to the financial industry therefore could make a fortune by shorting selected rail related stocks. No idea what the UK rules are re: insider trading. Then again based on recent Tory interpretation of law: Tory PMs & MPs have dispensation to do whatever the hell they want, whenever they want.

    1381:

    Have wondered why not build trains (esp. light rail) directly over the major highways that way no further land will need to be seized/ruined. Start with the lowest traffic routes to work out any issues as well as to build consumer/user confidence.

    I got to watch 2 "rail" projects at somewhat close range. Locally a new Amtrak station. Not much track work. But of a budget of about $90, 2/3s of it was tracking. More than a new station to get to $30 mil but still tracking.

    And locally they have twice tried to do light rail to connect up all of our moderate town. First attempt spent like $50mil on design work then gave up when all the tracking issues raised the initial estimate from about $250mil to $750mil. And still climbing.

    Plus another one just recently that left out my city and still ran into issues of tracking and how close tracks would be to sensitive things. I understand they spent over $100mil to get to that point.

    Ask rail to climb at over 1% and you get told off. Roadways can do more. Similar issues with curves.

    Drive around Pittsburgh PA some time and you'll see all kinds of medium to high speed roads around the rivers and smaller mountains. With very odd looking things above your head at times as the train tracks couldn't follow the contours and had to go straighter and less steep.

    Then I spent a lot of time in the Dallas area when they took the LBJ on the north side from 2x3 high speed lanes with 2 service lanes on each side to 2x3x3 lanes + 2x2 service. The enew xtra high speed lanes in many cases were UNDER the old (well dug up and put back) lanes. I can only imagine the issues of building a rail link down the middle of a highway. Or above it. When it wasn't a thought in the orginal plan.

    Now busways are different. Or very light rail.

    1382:

    Re: 'Or very light rail.'

    Had to look this up and found that Coventry has been building some very light rail. Since many UK-based commenters seem very much into rail, they probably have info/opinions about how this project is coming along and how easily something like this could be expanded to other major population centers in the UK.

    My perception is that land scarcity is the major issue in the UK, i.e., cost of land would likely be one of the larger cost components. I assume that since the Coventry project had some public funding its documentation includes a breakdown of various cost components.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coventry_Very_Light_Rail#Network_and_funding

    1383:

    The second shoe has dropped:

    Trump January 6 indictment

    1384:

    Pigeon
    The way she dressed & what she wore was IMPORTANT.
    Like wearing an all-blue dress,& a hat with yellow stars on it, when the Brexshiteers were in full flow...... Or wearing blue-&yellow, after the Ukraine lunacy was kicked-off by Putin, yes?

    1385:

    Trump January 6 indictment

    Which includes 18 USC 241. As noted upthread, it sez:

    If two or more persons conspire to injure, oppress, threaten, or intimidate any person in any State, Territory, Commonwealth, Possession, or District in the free exercise or enjoyment of any right or privilege secured to him by the Constitution or laws of the United States, or because of his having so exercised the same; or

    If two or more persons go in disguise on the highway, or on the premises of another, with intent to prevent or hinder his free exercise or enjoyment of any right or privilege so secured—

    They shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both; and if death results from the acts committed in violation of this section or if such acts include kidnapping or an attempt to kidnap, aggravated sexual abuse or an attempt to commit aggravated sexual abuse, or an attempt to kill, they shall be fined under this title or imprisoned for any term of years or for life, or both, or may be sentenced to death.
    1386:

    Re: Second shoe

    The indictment mentions DT's co-conspirators: four attorneys, one JD member and one political consultant.

    I think it will be important for journalists to remind people:

    Several of his past lawyers have pled guilty, been censured, have been charged and are awaiting trial, etc. and because these cases were heard in a bunch of different States/jurisdictions with different judges - this means there's a helluva lot of already court proven (on the books) and multi-examined evidence about what he did, when, why and how.

    1387:

    18 USC 241

    About which the Department of Justice explains:

    https://www.justice.gov/crt/statutes-enforced-criminal-section

    Conspiracy Against Rights

    Section 241 makes it unlawful for two or more persons to agree to injure, threaten, or intimidate a person in the United States in the free exercise or enjoyment of any right or privilege secured by the Constitution or laws of the United States or because of his or her having exercised such a right.

    Unlike most conspiracy statutes, §241 does not require, as an element, the commission of an overt act.

    The offense is always a felony, even if the underlying conduct would not, on its own, establish a felony violation of another criminal civil rights statute. It is punishable by up to ten years imprisonment unless the government proves an aggravating factor (such as that the offense involved kidnapping aggravated sexual abuse, or resulted in death) in which case it may be punished by up to life imprisonment and, if death results, may be eligible for the death penalty.

    Section 241 is used in Law Enforcement Misconduct and Hate Crime Prosecutions. It was historically used, before conspiracy-specific trafficking statutes were adopted, in Human Trafficking prosecutions.

    1388:

    Re: 'Or very light rail.'

    I was thinking of what we had around Pittsburgh. Single cars. Trolleys. They could follow roads with curves and moderate hills.

    Portland OR and similar has rubber tired such than can operation on dedicated roadways and streets when needed. Based on my look at a Google Maps of Pittsburgh they have seem to have taken over some abandoned rail lines with such.

    When I was in Pittsburgh they built a 4 stop subway (for the trolleys) that came above ground then over the river then into a tunnel (uphill) then down a street on top of the small mountain/big hill. In the blvd center. There was a stop at my wife's house there.

    Single car systems are a lot more route flexible than multi-car setups. And rubber tires even more so.

    1389:

    H'mm. Maybe have Trump guarded in prison by USSS agents who are themselves in the slammer for something? In return for reduced sentences or something.

    1390:

    JReynolds @ 1389:

    H'mm. Maybe have Trump guarded in prison by USSS agents who are themselves in the slammer for something? In return for reduced sentences or something.

    How many former Secret Service agents do you think are currently in prison who could be assigned to such a detail?

    1391:

    David L
    Not true any more.
    Seen the curves that the DLR goes round, or trams - anywhere?
    It's NOT an engineering problem, it's a political one

    1392:

    Rail in the US ranges from freight/Amtrak down to rubber tired sort of busses which can run on regular streets and dedicated roadways.

    My point is the things that carry folks around Chicago or New York City are more to the "heavy" end of things. Things like rubber tired specialty buses are at the very light end of the scale. At one end you have limited grades and curves. At the other you can get most anywhere.

    When I was in Pittsburgh in th e80s the trolley system was steel wheels with overhead electric. Based on google maps sky view at least some of that has been converted to self propelled rubber tires. But still with dedicated roadways for at least part of some routes.

    1393:

    Trump and prison.

    I have no interest in debates on 4 layers of hypotheticals. So short and sweet.

    I just saw a former federal prosecutor say that basically this is the start of a 4 year process. Even if convicted the time for the trial and appeals will take things out that far before he would walk into a prison of any kind.

    Second. There is no way (IMNERHO) the current standards and policies would apply. He would NOT be placed with any kind of general population. At all. No head of any prison would stay on if this happened. Way too much personal liability for his safety. If he goes to prison, special things will be done.

    1394:

    Half the advantage of rail over buses is the steel on steel setup that gives you much lower rolling resistance. The "rubber wheel rail" systems are a bit of a niche between trains and cable cars or rack/cog railway systems, where the route has steep bits that steel wheels can't handle but is low volume enough that (very) light rail can work. They definitely exist, and the makers try to sell them into places where proper rail is required, but they generally fail in those situations.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCyIpIXA4zQ RMTransit rants about them in his is "GadgetBahn" video...

    1395:

    Here's something I noticed yesterday. Ads on Twitter are suddenly much more of a thing - but only if you're hostile to Trump.

    Twitter feed for:

    Sleepless Domain, a US-based web cartoon that is apolitical regarding Trump (author is Trump-hostile): occasional ad

    Tom Gauld (UK cartoonist): very occasional ad

    Guy Gavriel Kay (Canadian author): occasional ad

    Harry Turtledove (US author, hostile to Trump): four tweets, ad, four more tweets, ad, (repeat as far down as I care to)

    Stonekettle (US author, former US Navy, hostile to Trump): four tweets, ad, four more tweets, ad, (repeat as far down as I care to)

    Haven't looked at the feeds of pro-Trump types.

    The day before yesterday, they all were in the occasional add group. Elmo wants to get rid of the rest of his $44bn, I guess. With that kind of BS, the only people who would want to use Twitter any more are the neo-N#zis. Oh well. It was kind of good while it lasted.

    1396:

    Sabine Hossenfelder did a deep dive vlog on this: How bad is Diesel?

    Spends a considerable proportion of the time confirming that particulates are bad, really very bad and a lot worse than you probably expect, that diesel as opposed to petrol engines are a conspicuous source considerably over and above other sources and that the public health consequences are pretty terrible. But also she also points out unequivocally that (due to the fact emissions standards made this into a quick win) "modern" diesel vehicles with regular scheduled services that include maintaining the particulate filters emit particulates to a level no worse than most petrol vehicles.

    That doesn't let old war wagons off the hook of course: they are mobile COPD and cancer factories.Maybe a regime of mandating retrofit filters would work, who knows?

    1397:

    The Paris Metro is a rubber wheel system.

    1398:

    I don't do youtube, but one of the points that is often missed is that most trips in the UK (especially in built-up areas) are very short, so cars do not get time to warm up properly. How much pollution they generate when warm is largely irrelevant, and it's what they are like when cold that matters. That aspect was the original reason for objecting to the promotion of diesel, and my understanding is that it remains valid.

    Another is the trickier one is that not all particulates are the same (and I don't just mean size). There is considerable evidence that woodsmoke is less harmful than might appear, possibly because we have had millions of years to evolve a tolerance to it. I believe that the current hoo-hah about banning wood-burning in the UK is an attempt to divert from attending to the much more serious traffic issue.

    1399:

    Moz @ 1394
    Rubber wheels on tarmac or concrete lead to problems of the surface of the ground shifting &/or breaking up under the loads - see also "guided Pus-Ways" - which are almost as expensive & SLOWER than actual trains or trams.

    EC @ 1397
    NO, it fucking well is NOT!
    They experimented with an unimaginably complicated steel-wheel PLUS rubber-tyre system { "VAL" }, back in the day - "sold" it to Monreal (Montreal) & nobody has even gone near it since, including Paris, who have returned to sanity.
    Only lines: 1, 4, 6, 11, 14 use it in Paris, the rest are sane & normal.

    QUOTE from wiki:

    Disadvantages
    The higher friction and increased rolling resistance cause disadvantages (compared to steel wheel on steel rail): Higher energy consumption.
    Worse ride, when compared with well-maintained steel-on-steel systems.
    Possibility of tyre blow-outs - not possible in railway wheels.
    Normal operation generates more heat (from friction).
    Weather variance. (Applicable only to above-ground installations)
    Loss of the traction-advantage in inclement weather (snow and ice).
    Same expense of steel rails for switching purposes, to provide electricity or grounding to the trains and as a safety backup.
    Tyres that frequently need to be replaced; contrary to rails using steel wheels, which need to be replaced less often.
    Tyres break down during use and turn into particulate matter (dust), which can be hazardous air pollution, also coating surrounding surfaces in dirty rubber dust.

    And:

    OH SHIT - identical *SPAM in present # 1399 to next thread

    ⟦ spam now gone - mod ⟧

    1400:

    Speaking of rubber subway wheels: Back when I rode the Toronto subway, the shrieking of metal wheels on metal tracks made me grit my teeth and seriously think of walking everywhere. (Taxis were not in the budget.) In contrast, the rubber wheels on Montreal's subway were a pleasant whisper. When I needed to get places fast, the Montreal subway was an attractive option.

    Whatever the engineering merits of metal vs. rubber, the rubber wheels win hands-down on a user experience basis.

    1401:

    Most of the Paris ones are even noisier than most of the London ones, at least to my hearing, though I can't say why.

    1402:

    Anyone discuss modern diesel, with the DEF (diesel exhaust fluid), which is explicitly for cutting emissions?

    I'm only aware of it because in '22, the last time I drove the 26' truck for Balticon, I needed to add some along with filling the tank.

    1403:

    The shrieking Geoff complains of is the flange of the inner wheel rubbing against the continuous check rail fitted to the inside running rail on sharp curves.

    The check rail is there to prevent the outer wheel climbing up the outside running rail and derailing. In the UK any passenger carrying line with a curve radius under ten chains (660 feet) is legally required to have such protection.

    As you'll realise the underground has many more sharp curves than main line tracks.

    I assume that either French rail insist on check rails for less sharp curves or the metro has sharper curves.

    1404:

    Elderly Cynic @ 1397:

    The Paris Metro is a rubber wheel system.

    I believe the one in Mexico City is as well.

    1405:

    Yes, I know, but the Paris lines to which I refer use rubber tyres, and make one hell of a racket when coming in to a station. I have no idea why that is, in the light of Geoff Hart's comment (#1400).

    I know I should have said tyres, but I don't know anything other than equipment trolleys and infants' cycles that use entirely rubber WHEELS without a steel, wood or at least high-strength plastic frame.

    1406:

    SFReader @ 1386:

    Re: Second shoe

    The indictment mentions DT's co-conspirators: four attorneys, one JD member and one political consultant.

    Someone on another forum pointed out we already know who Number 6 is ("I am NOT a number ...") 😏

    1407:

    Someone on another forum pointed out we already know who Number 6 is ("I am NOT a number ...")

    Well played!

    1408:

    Never been to either place, but I understand that the Paris metro system uses rubber tyres for propulsion and steel wheels/rails for guidance (maybe also to catch it if the tyres go down), so the latter still make the usual racket. I think the idea was that the rubber would facilitate faster acceleration, but it didn't work on the above-ground bits when it rained.

    Maybe the Montreal one changed the system a bit to use rubber tyres for both propulsion and guidance. I know I've seen a photo of a bogie off something other than a guided bus which has sets of rubber-tyred wheels on both horizontal and vertical axles, but I can't remember what.

    1409:

    The noise I hear is lower pitched - of course, I am stone deaf above about 4K cycles :-)

    1410:

    The REAL PROBLEM with the Paris ( & other places ) tyred metros is that it introduces a whole extra level of [ Totally unnecessary } complication to a simple syustem, with increased costs & downsides.
    KISS indeed.

    1411:

    That's the rumbling of bouncy rubber wheels on uneven concrete tracks, along with some funy vibrations from the interaction between suspension and accelleration. It's normally "road noise" except in this case it's a train generating it.

    One "advantage" of rubber wheels is that you don't have to have the very very flat surface that steel rails need, so you can build the track more cheaply and defer maintenance for longer. Sure, the ride is worse for the cargo, and you have to shield it from the elements if you want it to work, but you can dig a deeper deferred maintenance hole for the next government to deal with... yay! A rubber tyred metro... better than no metro at all.

    1412:

    Re: Room-temp semiconductors

    I just saw this and was wondering whether this was the article that piqued your interest.

    'A recent report of room temperature superconductivity at ambient pressure in Cu-substituted apatite (`LK99') has invigorated interest in the understanding of what materials and mechanisms can allow for high-temperature superconductivity. Here I perform density functional theory calculations on Cu-substituted lead phosphate apatite, identifying correlated isolated flat bands at the Fermi level, a common signature of high transition temperatures in already established families of superconductors. I elucidate the origins of these isolated bands as arising from a structural distortion induced by the Cu ions and a chiral charge density wave from the Pb lone pairs. These results suggest that a minimal two-band model can encompass much of the low-energy physics in this system. Finally, I discuss the implications of my results on possible superconductivity in Cu-doped apatite.'

    https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.16892

    I just found it via a reference in a more detailed and less techie description/explanation on a tweet (Andrew Cote - @Andrecot). Looking forward to you and the other sci/tech folks here dissecting this. Plain English wherever possible. :)

    1413:

    Oops - meant to address @1412 to Greg!

    1414:

    Re: Room-temp semiconductors

    Those of us around since the days of Martin Fleischmann and Stanley Pons and cold fusion. We wait a bit for such reports to be vetted for a while. [grin off]

    1415:

    The indictment mentions DT's co-conspirators: four attorneys, one JD member and one political consultant.

    CNN reports that "Co-Conspirator 1" is Rudy Giuliani.

    So far as I've seen, nobody anywhere is surprised about that.

    1416:

    Re: Room-temp semiconductors

    Those of us around since the days of Martin Fleischmann and Stanley Pons and cold fusion. We wait a bit for such reports to be vetted for a while. [grin off]

    see also Magnetic Monopoles and Poly-Water

    1417:

    Nick K & David L
    Yes, but .... In this case, so far, & most unusually, it SEEMS that the original reporters actually were correct. We need more people like the Chinese & LL follow-ups to confirm that such is the case.

    Magnetic Monopoles & Polywater were simply bad experimental practice.
    "Cold Fusion" was different, but, IIRC, someone got their knickers in a very bad twist at one point & then screwed up - it was certainly complicated.

    BUT This is NOT complicated - a simple mix of specified, relatively cheap compounds, with a given "cooking" recipe ( Make no mistake, any competent kitchen cook, with the right equipment could do this } ... "All" any tester has to do is to follow the already-printed instructions.
    So .. IF those follow-ups show the predicted results - & it won't take us long to really find out - like less than a month, I would think.
    THEN we will know won't we?

    1418:

    I hope that it doesn't go the way of cold fusion. Its opponents seized on the flaws in the evidence to demonise everyone and every experiment associated with it, and thus ignore the evidence that something odd was going on. An early paper (by a sceptic) said that the violence of at least one explosion was too great to be explained by conventional hydrogen accumulation. But, as a result of the demonising, that aspect was never investigated, even though it might have led to a breakthrough in hydrogen storage.

    The point here is that such experiments and theories are not simply entirely right or entirely wrong. The history of science it littered with such things that found an effect of real importance but not what it was initially claimed to be. This definitely smells like something along those lines.

    1419:

    Only a few of the Paris Metro lines use rubber tyres; the majority still use standard steel wheels on rails. Of the 16 current lines, only 1, 4, 6, 11, and 14 use rubber tyres.

    The "pneu" lines have ordinary rails as well with the tyres running on concrete platforms outside the rails (imagine the Cambridgeshire Misguided Busway with the original railway left in place). Outside those are metal bars with a flat side which carry the power supply - the train has horizontal metal wheels which run along those bars, both guiding it and picking up the power.

    The train still has ordinary rail wheels inside the tyres. Wherever there is pointwork, the concrete platforms descend below track level and end so that the train is running on the normal rails instead, which guide it in the normal rail way. (This is their solution to the basic flaw of monorails: the "points" are big and slow.). Also, if the train gets a flat tyre it will drop down on to the running rails and continue safely.

    1420:

    The history of science it littered with such things that found an effect of real importance but not what it was initially claimed to be

    Viagra is an obvious example.

    Less known (I am pretty sure it has not been approved in US or UK), Thalidomide turned out to be an effective treatment for leprosy. It's not like women with leprosy are likely to have children...

    1421:

    The adhesive in Post-It notes. Was calculated to be strong, but wasn't — then someone realized that a weak adhesive could be very useful in the right application…

    1422:

    Rbt Prior
    IIRC, in one of the Discworld books, Leonard of Quirm comes up with their equivalent of post-it notes.
    He's asked what the glue is made from: "Boiled Slugs"

    1423:

    BUT This is NOT complicated - a simple mix of specified

    I've seen some comments on another blog hypothesizing that it requires the copper atoms to replace very specific lead atoms for the effect observed. (Like a semiconductor, only worse). That is not something you are going to cook up in your kitchen. Further, it may explain the reluctance to publish, because they may have had difficulty replicating the effect themselves (AIUI, they were forced to publish because the lead scientist was fired and published without the data).

    1424:

    They should be OK even if they are. The original drug was a racemic mixture, but it turned out that only one of the stereoisomers had the unpleasant side effect. Since that discovery they changed to a stereoselective synthesis that only produces the good one; this was too late to "rescue" it for its original application, but hasn't precluded alternative uses.

    1425:

    Emptywheel, which is pretty good at such things, has:

    Rudy Giuliani (CC1), John Eastman (CC2), Sidney Powell (CC3), Jeffrey Clark (CC4), Kenneth Chesebro (CC5), and either Boris Epshteyn or Mike Roman (CC6)

    AIUI, CC6 is now thought to be Boris Epshteyn

    1426:

    I've seen some comments on another blog hypothesizing that it requires the copper atoms to replace very specific lead atoms for the effect observed. (Like a semiconductor, only worse). That is not something you are going to cook up in your kitchen. Further, it may explain the reluctance to publish, because they may have had difficulty replicating the effect themselves (AIUI, they were forced to publish because the lead scientist was fired and published without the data).

    Thanks!

    Derek Lowe has more information on this: https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/room-temperature-superconductor-new-developments

    tl;dr: the original report was on a polycrystalline, heterogeneous mass. It looks like only one form of LK-99 is superconducting, so getting the proper crystal to grow may be the challenge. This may also explain why some labs are reporting superconductivity, while others are not.

    Another angle is that there's a software package out there that tries to predict whether a material is superconducting. Several boffins in several labs have run the same software, and both report that, yes, LK-99 as described does look like a superconductor. What's anomalous is the superconducting at room temperature and pressure part. This is good (per Lowe), because it suggests that LK-99 is less extraordinary than initial reports suggested.

    I haven't been looking, but I'd expect the environmental types to start wondering out loud whether and how LK-99 should be unleashed on the world if it turns out to be useful. Lead contamination is a serious problem, of course. Do you want to make maglev tracks out of it? Or even train levitators? Worse in some ways, the world's purportedly running short on usable phosphorus. I've heard one rumor that, with current usage patterns, we've got less than 50 years' supply before we can't grind up phosphate rocks as crop fertilizer, which means crop failures loom without major changes. And...a bunch of the phosphate we are using comes from Western Sahara, which has a rather special place in the geopolitical hellscape at the moment. So do we want to add to the demanda? Inquiring minds might want to know...

    1427:

    Thanks for the detail on the Paris rubber tyre setup.

    "the basic flaw of monorails: the "points" are big and slow"

    That's a major flaw, but it's not what I would pick as the "basic" one. I reckon the basic flaw is that if something is perched on only one line of wheels, it falls over. To stop it falling over you need at least two sets of wheels at different points on the radius of the overturning circle. Therefore you either need two rails, or a single huge "rail" which is big enough for both sets of wheels to run on it with the same lateral separation. So you might as well cut the cackle and just stick conventional track up on poles, and then define a new jargon variant in which "rail" means the same as what "track" normally does so you can still say it only uses one of them.

    The things we get that are called "monorails" are basically just using a track that doesn't look like conventional track in order to make the redefinition look more convincing. So all the aspects that depend on how the track works become gratuitously awkward, such as points (as you say), interoperability with other systems (out the window), friction between wheel and rail (because you can't use steel on steel or else the steel bits would look like rails and everyone would say it has more than one), etc. But the track is still as bulky and obtrusive as a conventional track would be. They are throwing away the advantages of the conventional railway in order to gain an advantage in exploiting the imperfect correspondence between the conventional categories people use in conversation and what things actually are, which seems at best pointless.

    (OK, there are one or two versions which sort the stability problem by dangling underneath, but they still suffer from nearly all the same awkwardnesses, so they don't affect the point.)

    The only variant which genuinely does use only one rail and can have straightforward points is the Brennan gyroscopic system, but that requires extra mechanical complexity and weight in the vehicles, still isn't interoperable with conventional systems in any practical way, and still requires the same amount of space set aside for its exclusive use as anything else does for the same capacity, even if the track can be made minimally obtrusive in that space.

    1428:

    We could always grind up people's bones for fertiliser, instead of sending them up in smoke or burying them in non-agricultural land...

    There's something funny about phosphorus, though. It's supposed to be the next most abundant element after carbon - so where is it all? There ought to be craploads of phosphate rocks about, if not as many as carbonate ones. Do we just need to take notice of less pure sources?

    And where does it all go? Into the sea? Into river sediments? Into non-food organisms? It's most dissatisfying that we just dig it up and then use it in a once-through manner without making any effort to recycle any of it.

    Maybe we should stop trying to fertilise with plain stuff as it's dug up, and instead try and come up with some compound that binds strongly to soil particles and doesn't really come off unless a root system or mycorrhizae prise it loose?

    It's pretty plain that we're using it wrong, but there is far too much I don't know about the relevant fields for me to have much of a sensible idea for how we could do better.

    1429:

    H
    the original report was on a polycrystalline, heterogeneous mass. It looks like only one form of LK-99 is superconducting, so getting the proper crystal to grow may be the challenge. This may also explain why some labs are reporting superconductivity, while others are not. ... OK - so ...
    Further research desperately needed, & concentrating on tweaking the "cooking" process, in it's widest sense, to maximise the superconducting properties.
    Again - IF it is correct - THEN it should be relatively "easy" to fine-down on the specifics to achieve the desired results..

    Pigeon
    The real killer { Or, as you put it, "basic" } problem with rubber-tyred metro trains is the unbelievable extra complication it brings, for no perceivable gain ...
    HERE is the pointwork Warning - you may have to hit "f5" to get the image (!)
    and ...
    HERE is a whole page of pictures of the train bogies - I mean simply LOOK at all of it, which has to be maintained over-&-above all the usual maintenance tasks for the normal bogie, which is "in there" underneath it all, somewhere!
    Meanwhile: - The things we get that are called "monorails" are basically just using a track that doesn't look like conventional track in order to make the redefinition look more convincing. ... err - NO*
    Schwebebahn - says differently. (!)

    1430:

    Fixed those links for you :)

    Pointwork: http://i.skyrock.net/9655/82289655/pics/3132864562_1_2_uYARxPqe.jpg

    Bogie: http://www.ltmuseum.co.uk/system/files/styles/collection_item_component_600_px_wide/private/collection_item/i0000bcr_0.jpg?itok=BL2N0UBt

    The pointwork doesn't look too bad, in terms of bits needing maintenance compared to a normal system, but I can't reconcile it with the pic of the bogie - it looks like it has the rails down the middle, taking only lateral forces (the upper surfaces are not shiny), whereas the bogie clearly uses two rails in the normal way, just inside the rubber wheels. Mind you, the pic is a bit small, so I may be misidentifying bits.

    The bogie, I quite agree...

    My penultimate para was intended to cover the Schwebebahn and things like it; if you dangle underneath then you do need only one rail, but you still end up with nearly all the same awkwardnesses in a slightly different form. Of course, in their case of finding a route by slinging it above a river things work out a bit differently.

    1431:

    Scott Sanford @ 1415:

    The indictment mentions DT's co-conspirators: four attorneys, one JD member and one political consultant.

    CNN reports that "Co-Conspirator 1" is Rudy Giuliani.

    So far as I've seen, nobody anywhere is surprised about that.]

    It was obvious from the get-go the first four are Giuliani, Eastman, the Kraken woman and Jeffrey Clark, acting head of DoJ "Civil Division" (even I could figure that out

    ... and AFAIK there's a general agreement number 5 is Kenneth Chesebro.

    Only Number 6 is in dispute. Apparently there were TOO MANY “political consultant[s] who helped implement a plan to submit fraudulent slates of presidential electors to obstruct the certification proceeding" that the media is having trouble identifying the goat. 🙃

    1432:

    Pigeon: you're comparing a Paris system bogie with Lille system track. They don't work the same way. That Lille one looks more like a guide rail (perhaps with a vertical pole sliding through the gaps) than traditional trackwork.

    1433:

    I'm pretty sure that, in Paris, "pneu" trains can run on conventional lines and vice versa, though it's possible they might need to be towed or have different shoegear fitted.

    Line 1 connects to 2 at Etoile. 4 and 6 both connect to 5 around Gare du Nord and Gare de l'Est. 11 connects to 3 around Arts et Métiers. 14 doesn't appear to connect to any other line.

    Source: https://cartometro.com/metro-paris/

    1434:

    I hope that it doesn't go the way of cold fusion.

    Me either. But there's a lot of fuzziness in the current situation.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/08/whats-going-on-with-the-reports-of-a-room-temperature-superconductor/

    1435:

    What would make me laugh is if they have found something that isn't superconductivity, but shares some of the same properties. That would REALLY put the cat among the pigeons!

    1436:

    Oh it's Lille, is it? Cheers. No wonder it didn't make sense. I thought Greg was posting pics of the same system, and the URL didn't indicate otherwise.

    1437:

    Pigeon
    My apologues ,, but:
    The tow systems have the same disadvantages: - ridiculous, expensive & unnecessary complications, expensive to maintain.
    Also for Clive F ... ONLY inter-operable if the "side" tyres & wheels are removed, or they would foul ... just about everything in the signalling lines, oh dear. IF you do that then they could be towed along all the other lines, how convenient.

    1438:

    Well, presumably they come off in much the same way that lorry wheels do, so it could be worse. And I dare say it is convenient if you need to move them on normal tracks to get them to/from heavy maintenance sites that handle work beyond the scope of their everyday depots (in the same way that LU have some incredibly circuitous routes for doing that with deep tube stock).

    Not that that means it isn't still less convenient than not having to bother in the first place, of course. And it's odd that after Paris had tried it and discovered it wasn't worth the candle that other places in France should decide to have their own crack at it.

    1439:

    I was reminded today of the gulf between the common engineering mindset of "my solution does X really well, but it's not the best for your problem" and the sales approach of "I have X, I will sell it to everyone whether they need it or not". You kinda need both in business, but obviously as an engineer I think "fit for purpose" should take priority over "best tool for the job". Looking around I notice that a lot of people disagree...

    1440:

    Well that line is nice and obvious so much of the time. [grin]

    1441:

    There's a brain fart there, too. I eant either of those as compared to "whatever we have lying around". But never mind.

    1442:

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/08/05/donald-trump-homeland-security-threat-00109928

    This touches something I've been wondering about: does a significant number of people in the US national security community think that DJT 47 would be an actual danger to that national security?

    1443:

    Yes. Trump's stated desire to get out of NATO would certainly weaken the U.S. It wouldn't help Ukraine, either. Have you heard all the Russians gnashing their their teeth over Trump's legal woes? They definitely want him elected President in 2024...

    1444:

    "obviously as an engineer I think "fit for purpose" or "best tool for the job" should take priority over "whatever we have lying around". Looking around I notice that a lot of people disagree..."

    (edited to incorporate correction)

    Obviously, I agree :)

    However, I don't think "whatever we have lying around" is necessarily the worst offender, as I am fairly used to taking it as a starting point for modifying into something which is "fit for purpose", and indeed may end up as being "best tool for the job"; but this then tends to come into conflict with some combination of more pernicious unworthy pretenders to first priority, such as "what everyone else uses", "what the factory would supply", and "what is most shiny".

    The especial trouble with those is the degree to which their defenders are impervious to evidence, such as repeated predictable failures of the shiny ones from the factory that everyone uses in contrast with the demonstrable durability of the alternative.

    1445:

    They definitely want him elected President in 2024...

    well he has said he would end the war, and not by giving the ukrainians f-35s either

    there's room for debate about whether keeping the war going is good for nato and the us in the long term as well, it doesn't seem to be bringing russia to its knees despite all the fond hopes of peter zeihan, and the performance of western weapon systems in the absence of air supremacy seems a bit patchy

    1446:

    What scares the national security folks, by a wide margin, is the general "tear it down" he would do to relationships and such that have taken decades to build up. Plus in general blabbing to one and all things that he should keep his mouth shut.

    Of all the people who served in cabinet posts and under secretaries to such cabinet folks, only 4 are willing to say he should be elected again.

    1447:

    @1442, agreed, in addition, what souvenirs would he take home next time, if re-elected?

    1448:

    the performance of western weapon systems in the absence of air supremacy seems a bit patchy

    I'm getting the impression that the biggest problem is that really dense minefields are pinning down troops, especially armour, and leaving them sitting ducks for artillery.

    1449:

    i think with drones everything's sitting ducks for artillery

    1450:

    the degree to which their defenders are impervious to evidence

    Yeah, the "strong opinions weakly held" myth is especially painful in this context. I've got a friend putting ~15kW of brushless motors into their experimental vehicle and I'm having to learn about those real quick because the friend is not especially electrically inclined ("DIY LFP battery kit" level, not "design board to link two motor controllers using CANBUS" level). I am pretty sure that's a feature of all the CAN-posessing controllers but no-one seems to actually say so. And most don't answer emails...

    1451:

    there's room for debate about whether keeping the war going is good for nato and the us in the long term as well, it doesn't seem to be bringing russia to its knees despite all the fond hopes of peter zeihan, and the performance of western weapon systems in the absence of air supremacy seems a bit patchy

    There's a good article in today's Daily Kos about the possibility of Russia soon being brought to its knees:

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/5/2184924/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-s-war-of-attrition-can-break-Russia-and-it-won-t-take-years

    1452:

    I've got a friend putting ~15kW of brushless motors into their experimental vehicle and I'm having to learn about those real quick

    have you tried writing out a draft eulogy and asking them to look it over "just in case"?

    1453:

    You don't understand. I get all their tools and stuff when if they die. Plus I get to see the experiment.

    It's actually a lot less exciting when you learn that the vehicle is a boat and 15kW of propulsion might, with luck and a downhill slope, get them to 10 knots.

    The fun part is that a lot of the motors from China are sold as "for motorbike, car, e-bike, go-cart, boat" which I interpret as "do not get wet". There's good reasons for AliBaba pricing being $2000-ish and proper ones being $20,000-ish. But some people are experiential learners and so here we go.

    1454:
    it doesn't seem to be bringing russia to its knees despite all the fond hopes of peter zeihan

    I wouldn't be so sure about that.

    To the extent that we can know anything about casualties (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War) Russia is now on it's knees in the Peter Zeihan sense.

    Just remember that it was the losses on the Western Front in WW1 that caused the demise of the British Empire. We lost 1.3 million young men from a population of about 50 million, who'd have made up the skilled workforce of the 1930s. Of course the actual demise was very protected: 1945-1960 say. But the direction of travel was set, and inevitable after the Somme.

    If the estimates of the website are in anyway accurate, Russia has so far lost 50,000 (and 200,000 injured) from a population of 120 million. So not yet on the scale of the British losses over 100 years ago, but I cannot see any way for the Russians to disentangle themselves from Ukraine -- even with a regime change. Russkiy Mir is the Russian answer to US' "Manifest Destiny", and the Russian public has not yet accepted that the Age of Empire is over.

    1455:

    Of all the people who served in cabinet posts and under secretaries to such cabinet folks, only 4 are willing to say he should be elected again.

    Really?

    Which four?

    1456:

    well wrap me in camo and call me qanon but i don't really trust wikipedlo for anything currently controversial, they seem to be squarely behind the status quo for most things, #BelieveUkraine etc., admittedly not as bad as bellingcat

    i will be looking out with interest for signs of russia's forthcoming collapse unpreceded by ukraine's tho

    1457:

    David L
    What scares the national security folks, by a wide margin, is the general "tear it down" he would do to relationships and such that have taken decades to build up. - Just like Brexit has done to us, you mean?

    adrian smith
    Russia has just extended it's conscription age - up to (?) 32 (?) - which is a definite sign of weakness, IMHO

    Dave Lester
    NO
    It was WWII that bankrupted & finished "us" as an Empire.
    By day 2 of the Somme, people had learnt, it didn't happen again & overall, in WW I, the "British" had the lowest casualty rate.
    Imperial Germany lost a lot more, actually.

    1458:

    It was WWII that bankrupted & finished "us" as an Empire.

    i thought we and the french had borrowed so much money from the americans in wwi that they felt they had to come in to make sure we didn't lose and default

    the process was kind of spread over both iow

    1459:

    i think with drones everything's sitting ducks for artillery

    For this to be true, you have to have artillery. Russia's artillery tubes are wearing out (shoot ~ 2,000 shells, then the tube needs to be replaced). Russia doesn't seem to have many replacement tubes. Russia also has shell shortages (daily use down by ~ 75%), and Ukraine has been successfully targeting and destroying Russian artillery.

    1460:

    Adrian @1445, one thing aid to Ukraine accomplishes is bleeding Russia, diminishing their ability cause mischief elsewhere Greg @1457, another concern about the World Wars is the technological acceleration, chiefly in petroleum burning devices may have accelerated the advent of the anthropocene climate unpleasantness by decades. FWIW, Great Britain's reaction to a German Imperial blue water fleet could've been, perhaps, more nuanced?

    1461:

    Tim H
    EXCEPT that the Kaiserliche Marine Amt ships were not really long-range.
    They were specifically designed for fighting the British & French, they could not have sailed across the Atlantic to fight the USA - their food & other reserves were not big enough - one reason their big ships were so "tough" was they didn't have to accommodate the long-range fighting ability that ours did.

    1462:

    Re: 'There ought to be craploads of phosphate rocks about, ...'

    Agree - I was of the impression that the most commonly used is bird poop often imported from Brunei. Just checked and the largest producer in Brunei sold 37% of its stake to India back in 2018. Considering the current politics in India it's unlikely that they'll be be offering friendly terms to NATO countries for that stuff.

    I'm guessing that any country with a largish coastline could probably harvest quite a bit of gull poop. I also just checked whether egg-laying hens might be a source. Turns out probably not because such hens need a fairly large amount in their diets (bone & egg shell development). Could be a serious problem for people relying on eggs as an inexpensive protein source. Maybe it's time to encourage the gathering/recycling egg shells and bird poop. The first COVID summer saw a few people in my area setting up some small hen coops in their backyards. (Technically not legal, but most were not fined unless neighbors complained.) I like seaweed as a potential alternative: whatever you don't eat, toss into the compost heap/garden.

    Russia -

    According to the June 4/23 BBC article below: 'Forbes magazine cited sources inside the Russian authorities as saying that between 600,000 and 1,000,000 people left in 2022.' Many were highly skilled professionals which is impacting various domestic businesses. (Doesn't seem to have impacted their internet scamming though. Half wondering whether these internet scammers are sorta like Wagner - a semi-official part of Putin's military.)

    Something else to keep in mind - once Putin runs out of men, he'll put more pressure on women to join the military. Not sure he'll care if they're mothers/primary/sole care givers of young children. If this happens then there's an even greater and longer loss of population ahead for Russia. Recruitment from Africa is another possibility - just pay/bribe the ruling autocrat.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65790759

    Room temp semiconductors --

    If this is real, what types of changes would be needed to already existing equipment/devices to incorporate this new tech? (What was the history of different types of batteries re: uptake by industry and consumers?) Which industries could benefit first/most easily? (EVs?)

    1463:

    SFR @1462
    Room_temp superconducting.
    The question is: ...
    Are we at 1812 - check for "1812" date, ok?
    Or 1824? - the Stockton & Darlington opened in 1825!
    Or 1830? - When the Liverpool & Manchester opened? - & remember that the "Rainhill Trials" were actually in 1829!

    And, yes, IF, IF ... room-temp superconducting is, actually a thing, then the change will be as profound as that that Stephenson & his assocaites, supporters, collaborators & helpers wrought in those years

    1464:

    Which four?

    Sorry. I don't have a link. I'm a news junkie. At times with stats like this I try and make a note but didn't this time.

    It could have been something I read from one of a dozen or two regular sources or a commentator on TV. (I don't watch the US cable opinion shows that come on starting around 6 or 7pm. I have a few TV shows I DVR and then listen to for the commentors that I trust. I suspect this particular bit of informaiton came from one of them who was a reporter for one of the major US newspapers or magazines.

    1465:

    one thing aid to Ukraine accomplishes is bleeding Russia, diminishing their ability cause mischief elsewhere

    where, tho? syria? a lot of the mischief there seems to be nato's doing. georgia? blowing up their own pipelines for inscrutable reasons?

    and it sounds like ukraine's doing a lot of the bleeding

    1466:

    Russia doesn't seem to have many replacement tubes. Russia also has shell shortages

    A problem with both sides. Usages have been at daily rates at or above monthly production rates Shells and tubes.

    And both sides are using drones for targeting. Especially the prosumer quad copter level of drones. And counter measures against the drones are giving both sides a hard time. I suspect both sides are working hard to swap out the standard radios for ones with multi-frequency frequency hopping ones that operate across a wide range of frequencies.

    I read about a strike in the last day or so where Ukraine managed to take out the antennas on a tower being used to target drone communications and GPS. Then they quickly took out the tower the antennas were on (and I suppose the base station) with a HIMARS shot. So a unit within a mile or so, maybe less, controlling the drone coordinating with a HIMARS unit 20-30 miles back.

    This is NOT your father's war fighting.

    And on top of this it seems Russia has mined most of their "front" in depth. So rapid maneuver by Ukraine is hard.

    1467:

    For this to be true, you have to have artillery. Russia's artillery tubes are wearing out (shoot ~ 2,000 shells, then the tube needs to be replaced). Russia doesn't seem to have many replacement tubes. Russia also has shell shortages (daily use down by ~ 75%),

    i dunno, the recent ukrainian offensive seems to have been comprehensively wafflestomped. I guess they must have broken out their stocks of trebuchets or something

    and Ukraine has been successfully targeting and destroying Russian artillery.

    i'm sure they say they have, i think we've been doing quite a bit of the targeting for them tho

    1468:

    Kardashev @ 1442:

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/08/05/donald-trump-homeland-security-threat-00109928

    This touches something I've been wondering about: does a significant number of people in the US national security community think that DJT 47 would be an actual danger to that national security?

    Politico is pretty far to the right among U.S. publications, but kind of establishment - what the MAGAts would call the Dark State - so if THEY are saying DJT is a threat to national security, you can believe a large segment of the U.S. security establishment does believe it's true.

    But note, they don't really give a shit what he BELIEVES, it's the lawlessness he generates around him that's seen as a threat.

    1469:

    what the MAGAts would call the Dark State

    dark web, deep state

    1470:

    adrian smith @ 1445:

    "They definitely want him elected President in 2024..."

    well he has said he would end the war, and not by giving the ukrainians f-35s either

    there's room for debate about whether keeping the war going is good for nato and the us in the long term as well, it doesn't seem to be bringing russia to its knees despite all the fond hopes of peter zeihan, and the performance of western weapon systems in the absence of air supremacy seems a bit patchy

    There's no question that if Ukraine LOSES to Russia, Russia will come knocking on the door with demands for the Baltic States, Poland and/or other former subjects of the Soviet Union who have turned westward to the European Union (and joined NATO specifically for protection from Russian hegemonic ambitions & territorial demands). It's clearly in the U.S. and NATO's (and the EU's) interests that Russia NOT subjugate Ukraine.

    And it's ABSOLUTELY NOT in the U.S.'s interest to sell out Ukraine so Trump can put his name on a hotel in Moscow!

    But that Politico article is about the DOMESTIC threat to U.S. security that Trump poses with his klepto-fascist support for white supremacist, christian-dominionist, criminal extremism. He promises to abrogate every clause of the Constitution to make himself divine emperor.

    What do you think is going to happen to the rest of the world if the U.S. falls to a "christian" Taliban?

    ... and BTW, all the tankies won't be the FIRST up against the walls or into the "camps", but they won't be the last either!

    1471:

    Tim H. @ 1447:

    @1442, agreed, in addition, what souvenirs would he take home next time, if re-elected?

    What makes you think there will BE a "next time" if he gets back into power?

    1472:

    There's no question that if Ukraine LOSES to Russia, Russia will come knocking on the door with demands for the Baltic States, Poland and/or other former subjects of the Soviet Union who have turned westward to the European Union (and joined NATO specifically for protection from Russian hegemonic ambitions & territorial demands).

    i haven't seen any evidence that the russians want to do anything but protect russian speakers who are under threat, which don't appear to include the ones in the baltic republics despite all the energetic bedwetting people are producing. i think they'll try to take the whole black sea coast of ukraine if they can, they'll need to cripple it economically so it can't recover and restart festivities, and there'll probably be a bit of ethnic cleansing as a result.

    they're really going to need a rest after that

    1473:

    In background is that Russia is rapidly falling down the list of suppliers of military equipment, and likely also "military assistance". Yeah, sure, the Russians will send troops in to ... destroy your country and steal anything that's not nailed down?

    This whole business where Russia is emphasising that Ukraine has a third-rate bunch of losers with outdated military equipment and poor leadership is not helping project that impression of being a major military force.

    And Adrian, defending the invaders by saying only "a little bit of ethnic cleansing" seems very "peace in our time". And feels like a precursor to "it's not genocide, Ukrainians were never a distinct ethinic group".

    1474:

    i dunno, the recent ukrainian offensive seems to have been comprehensively wafflestomped.a

    Not according to the Daily Kos. They say Ukraine is now fighting a war of attrition, since the Russians are stupidly fighting in front of their own defensive lines.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/5/2184924/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-s-war-of-attrition-can-break-Russia-and-it-won-t-take-years

    Also, Ukraine is taking out Russia's supply lines - one of Russia's weak spots.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/6/2185587/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-systematically-targets-Russian-logistics

    I'd say Russia's in a tough spot, and I doubt it's going to get any better...

    1475:

    AlanD2 @ 1451:

    there's room for debate about whether keeping the war going is good for nato and the us in the long term as well, it doesn't seem to be bringing russia to its knees despite all the fond hopes of peter zeihan, and the performance of western weapon systems in the absence of air supremacy seems a bit patchy

    There's a good article in today's Daily Kos about the possibility of Russia soon being brought to its knees

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/5/2184924/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-s-war-of-attrition-can-break-Russia-and-it-won-t-take-years

    OTOH, I question the assertion that the U.S. and/or NATO wants to "bring Russia to its knees". It's NOT in the U.S. interest to do so.

    It IS in the U.S. interest to curtail Russian imperialism, but I don't think we want to repeat the punitive mistakes made with Germany at the end of the "Great War" ... better to do what was done with (West) Germany after WW2.

    1476:

    "Russia doesn't seem to have many replacement tubes. Russia also has shell shortages"

    A problem with both sides. Usages have been at daily rates at or above monthly production rates Shells and tubes.

    Ukraine's artillery shell shortage is about to be relieved - and I doubt Russia is going to be happy.

    Ukraine Update: How cluster munitions will address Ukraine's ammunition issues

    When asked why he had chosen to send cluster munitions to Ukraine, President Joe Biden had a very simple response: “The Ukrainians are running out of ammunition.”

    Cluster munitions—155 mm DPICMs (Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions)—are controversial due to the risks they pose to civilians. They are also likely to largely resolve Ukraine’s artillery shell needs in the next one to two years, possibly longer … if necessary.

    According to the article, the U.S. has a stockpile of almost 5 million of these cluster shells, so Ukraine is good to go for the next few years.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/8/2179914/-Ukraine-Update-How-cluster-munitions-will-address-Ukraine-s-ammunition-issues

    1477:

    adrian smith @ 1458:

    It was WWII that bankrupted & finished "us" as an Empire.

    i thought we and the french had borrowed so much money from the americans in wwi that they felt they had to come in to make sure we didn't lose and default

    the process was kind of spread over both iow

    There was a large component of "If Britain falls to the Nazis, the US is Germany's NEXT target". If y'all got knocked out we were going to have to fight the new German empire alone & they were going to have all of the resources of YOUR empire as well as their own.

    Sure the New York banksters made out like bandits, but rational self interest drove US government policy vis-à-vis Britain between September 1939 and December 1941.

    1478:

    It IS in the U.S. interest to curtail Russian imperialism, but I don't think we want to repeat the punitive mistakes made with Germany at the end of the "Great War" ... better to do what was done with (West) Germany after WW2.

    To do to Russia the kind of punitive mistakes made with Germany at the end of the "Great War", not only would Ukraine have to defeat Russia in the current war, but somebody (most likely the U.S.) would have to invade and conquer Russia. You're definitely getting into QAnon territory here...

    However, I agree with your last point. It's a real shame that the U.S. didn't provide the same kind of economic support to the post-USSR Russia that it did to the post-WWII Germany.

    1479:

    adrian smith @ 1465:

    and it sounds like ukraine's doing a lot of the bleeding

    They'd be bleeding a lot more without the assistance they're getting from NATO & the EU.

    1480:

    Re: 'Stephenson & his assocaites, supporters, collaborators & helpers wrought...'

    Didn't read the first article ('1812') because it seemed that the site wanted me to register - nope!

    Skimmed the other two article - yes, a profound change with various actors wanting to protect their a$$et$, delays, cost over-runs, etc. However, apart from the financial impact, I'm curious about how this discovery might change non-transport businesses and esp. ordinary lives. If switching energy sources means having to completely rebuild infrastructure then it's going to take a lot of time unless some other major new tech somehow propels quick adoption. If/once this new energy source is proven to work reliably, the critical next step is to make it as easy (and cheap and safe) to plug into as possible.

    The only tech that I can think of that had very fast adoption was the Internet which became available to the general public in 1995. Folks here probably know: did the Internet speed up/increase household adoption of cable so that users didn't have to make a choice between using their phone lines for phone calls vs. using their phone line for going online?

    https://www.w3.org/History.html

    https://www.internetworldstats.com/emarketing.htm

    Okay, mobile phones also had very fast adoption. Interestingly, both of these industries started out as communications tools for business but because there were no tech barriers to adopting them for personal, in-home usage they're now used pretty well everywhere on the planet.

    1481:

    adrian smith @ 1472:

    There's no question that if Ukraine LOSES to Russia, Russia will come knocking on the door with demands for the Baltic States, Poland and/or other former subjects of the Soviet Union who have turned westward to the European Union (and joined NATO specifically for protection from Russian hegemonic ambitions & territorial demands).

    i haven't seen any evidence that the russians want to do anything but protect russian speakers who are under threat, ...

    There is none so blind ... -

    1482:

    AlanD2 @ 1478:

    "It IS in the U.S. interest to curtail Russian imperialism, but I don't think we want to repeat the punitive mistakes made with Germany at the end of the "Great War" ... better to do what was done with (West) Germany after WW2."

    To do to Russia the kind of punitive mistakes made with Germany at the end of the "Great War", not only would Ukraine have to defeat Russia in the current war, but somebody (most likely the U.S.) would have to invade and conquer Russia. You're definitely getting into QAnon territory here...

    No, but I think YOU are with your assertion the US & NATO want to bring Russia to its knees.

    I don't see how Ukraine can end the Russian invasion of Ukraine without defeating the Russians IN UKRAINE, but I've seen no evidence of Ukraine having any territorial ambitions in Russia once they drive the occupying Russian ARMY out

    ... and I know >b>the US has none (and by extension I think it most likely NATO member states have no territorial ambitions in Russia either).

    IF someday Ukraine should become a member of NATO, it will be because Russia has driven them to do so in self defense.

    However, I agree with your last point. It's a real shame that the U.S. didn't provide the same kind of economic support to the post-USSR Russia that it did to the post-WWII Germany.

    And it's a damn shame post-USSR Russia couldn't root out corruption instead of making organized crime a component of Russian "security" services. Russia could have provided their own economic support.

    1483:

    According to the article, the U.S. has a stockpile of almost 5 million of these cluster shells, so Ukraine is good to go for the next few years.

    In my not so informed never served in the military opinion, cluster munitions are very much anti personnel and anti light vehicle. They are not so good at pounding against dug in positions and heavy armor.

    And as a side note, my reading a while back indicated that Russia's cluster bombs had dud rates of 30% or more while the US supplied stuff has dud rates of 10% of less. But time will tell just how big a mess is left behind. This is on top of the vast areas that Russia has littered with land minds.

    1484:

    did the Internet speed up/increase household adoption of cable so that users didn't have to make a choice between using their phone lines for phone calls vs. using their phone line for going online?

    Cable and DSL.

    DSL let me drop a second phone line and sped up my connection speeds by 30x.

    Plus I had cable TV. So I flipped between DSL and cable for a few years as each proved a better deal for a while.

    Here in the Raleigh/Durham area of North Carolina we tended and still get things faster than much of the country. Higher incomes with a heavy STEM concentration in the populations. Currently I have a choice of Spectrum Cable (100-1000/10-30), AT&T Fiber (300-1000) and Google Fiber (500-5000). Plus Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile 5G wireless at a speed of around 50 depending.

    Back in 1999 or so I signed up for AT&T (Bellsouth then) DSL as soon as it was an option. My installer was in the first classed to be trained and I was his 5th install. And I discovered, reported, and got fixed bugs in their initial routers they were using. But not the bug that hit the news. Turned out at first everyone on the same local node could see everyone else's local shared things like printers. Which lead to some interesting moments between neighbors when the clueless added someone else's printer then printed out their medical appointments or the interesting cake recipe they had found.

    1485:

    It's worth contemplating the idea that NATO wants to use Ukraine to "pull a Vietnam war" on Russia (or, less kindly, rerun the Soviet experience in Afghanistan). Truly sucks for the Ukrainians, but hopefully less than tactical nukes would.

    And it's a damn shame post-USSR Russia couldn't root out corruption instead of making organized crime a component of Russian "security" services. Russia could have provided their own economic support.

    As for rehabilitating Russia post loss, their political economy has had a vodka component for centuries, and the old czarist military budget was largely run off the vodka tax. And yes, there's an organized crime element to this. see, for example,https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/09/how-alcohol-conquered-russia/279965/ , although you can find whole books on the subject. Putin's kept this system, and unfortunately, I think alcoholism is intertwined with the whole issue of getting organized crime out of Russia.

    Getting back to Ukraine, I hope they quagmire and bleed Russia into submission sooner rather than later. AND I hope they get a post-war boost more like Vietnam than Afghanistan...

    1486:

    In my not so informed never served in the military opinion, cluster munitions are very much anti personnel and anti light vehicle.

    Agreed. Since a lot of the fighting in Ukraine now involves attacking Russians in trenches, cluster munitions are a lot better than conventional artillery shells, as the bomblets are widely dispersed and more likely to fall into the trenches.

    Conventional shells - which are in short supply - can be saved for things like armored vehicles, which are less commonly encountered.

    1487:

    SFR
    ZERO heat losses in transmission cables & transformers ... your computer no longer gets hot etc ...
    AND, the amount of power generated to run the planet drops by a significant amount - 15-20% ??
    Which is very good indeed, as regards reducing GW, isn't it?

    John S
    I would add to your statement in # 1482: IF someday Ukraine, like Estonia AND Latvia AND Lithuania should become a member of NATO, it will be because Russia has driven them to do so in self defense - yes?

    1488:

    They'd be bleeding a lot more without the assistance they're getting from NATO & the EU.

    nah, they wouldn't be fighting at all without having been egged on to by nato, they'd have accepted the loss of crimea and given the donbass some autonomy as promised in the (sadly fake) minsk accords

    but we promised them, "hey, we'll help u get all ur shit back! for as long as it takes!"

    1489:

    i'm not defending them, it's just a prediction

    and i said "a bit", not "only a little bit" - how about "some ethnic cleansing" then? i have no idea how many ethnic ukrainians live in that area

    1490:

    It's worth contemplating the idea that NATO wants to use Ukraine to "pull a Vietnam war" on Russia (or, less kindly, rerun the Soviet experience in Afghanistan). Truly sucks for the Ukrainians, but hopefully less than tactical nukes would.

    not quite sure why tactical nukes is the only other option there but no, that would mean drinking the john mearsheimer kool-aid like most of the developing world seems to have done, we must not admit that nato's motives were anything other than altruistic and pure

    1491:

    IF someday Ukraine should become a member of NATO, it will be because Russia has driven them to do so in self defense.

    how do you bring a country with a massive festering border dispute with a neighbor it's just lost a huge chunk of territory to into nato tho? isn't that just asking to be drawn in as soon as the aggrieved party recovers enough to start things off again?

    unless that's the idea of course

    1492:

    »It's worth contemplating the idea that NATO wants to use Ukraine to "pull a Vietnam war" on Russia«

    Are you confusing NATO with the weapons industry ?

    1493:

    Wrong on all counts, unfortunately.

    1494:

    It's a damn good question how closely the weapons industry and NATO are allied but, no, I don't think that NATO is insane enough to want a rerun of the Vietnam war, or even one of the Middle Eastern ones. Some of the weapons industry may, though :-( What it DOES want is to preserve its existence, for which it needs an enemy (preferably Russia). It has recently being trying to establish a presence in the Pacific, because China is clearly a more viable enemy in the long-term than Russia.

    Remember back in 1990 when Gorbachev said that Russia wanted to join the EU and possibly even NATO, when the NATO Secretary General publicly responded "That would not be appropriate"? It and other anti-Russian camps took a decade to turn Russia from wanting to be an ally into an enemy, but it succeeded.

    The evidence is that the anti-Russian camps in the west (with at least the connivance of NATO) have wanted to turn Ukraine into a Russian killing ground for at least a decade. Boris Johnson was trying to set up an anti-Russian coalition in 2012 (*), and there was pressure on Ukraine from similar politicians to cut links with Russia and apply for NATO membership from at least that date. And the speed at which NATO put 'advisers' into Ukraine in 2014 following the externally-sponsored coup was highly suspicious. The USA, UK and NATO have all pressured Ukraine not to talk to Russia since 2014 and, when Putin wanted to pass the problem of eastern Ukraine over to the UN, Obama said "I will veto that." There's more along those lines, too.

    That is why Putin was so bloody stupid. There is no way that Russia could win a proxy war with even half of NATO, and a hell of a lot more than half (by armaments value) have joined in.

    (*) Yes, I know he was simultaneously taking money from billionaires linked to Putin, and allowing them into the UK/London. So why would those be incompatible? This is Bozo I am talking about.

    1495:

    adrain smith
    SAME as Czecoslovakia "provoked" Adolf over Sudetenland, eh?
    So that giving up Sudetenland was going to be the end of it.
    Are you terminally stupid, or a putin-troll?

    EC @ 1493
    Care to enumerate? I DO NOT BELIEVE YOU.

    Reminder to both the above:
    WHO started this war - twice?
    Vlad the insaner, actually.
    Ukraine was guaranteed territorial integrity in return for giving up it's nuclear weapons, wasn't it?
    That turned out so well .....

    1496:

    greg, ur hyperventilating, not everything is about adolf

    occupying hostile populations isn't fun any more, not with the world watching, see iraq (and if i were american i wouldn't be getting on a high horse about unprovoked invasions after iraq)

    vlad knows this

    1497:

    Superconductivity (if it exists) may or may not integrate with doped silicon xLSI, and only some of the heat generated in a computer is due to conduction.

    20-30% of planet-wide power is implausible even if all power was electricity, because not that much is lost on simple conduction.

    And I have pointed you at the proof of what I said once too often, only to find that you completely ignore it, to waste more time on you.

    1498:

    SFReader [1462] wondered: "Agree - I was of the impression that the most commonly used [source of phosphate] is bird poop"

    It's a major source, yes, but the agricultural demand long ago outstripped the rate of new supply. Most guano deposits developed over decades or even centuries. There's a shit-tonne (not "fuck-tonne" in this case) of phosphorus in this resource, but it's heavily overexploited. And has been for a long time (https://americanhistory.si.edu/norie-atlas/after-guano-ran-out). A related problem is that if you turn bird colonies into industrial scale mines, the birds leave and no more guano.

    There's a fuck-tonne of phosphate-bearing rock, but the problem is how to extract the phosphorus from the rock (it's not all lying around where it's easy to exploit and the stuff that's easy to reach may not contain high concentrations of phosphorus). And the easily accessible phosphate is also being overexploited (https://e360.yale.edu/features/phosphate_a_critical_resource_misused_and_now_running_out).

    Part of the problem is a lack of education among farmers in developing countries (possibly developed countries too). There's what seems to be a natural human thought process based on "if a little is good, a lot is better". Chinese farmers, for example, use far more NPK fertilizer than the crops can possibly use. From one of the journal papers I edited a few years ago, I recall a 3-fold excess, but don't rely on that number.

    SFReader: "I'm guessing that any country with a largish coastline could probably harvest quite a bit of gull poop."

    Yes and no. The problem is that it's a low-concentration (dispersed) resource. There are relatively few places where the bird population is so dense that you can collect industrial levels of phosphorus. The same problem occurs for fertilizer washed into bodies of water, including oceans: it's dispersed, so difficult to recover economically. If we ran agriculture as a closed-cycle process, we could capture unused nutrients before they enter the water system, but this isn't yet the standard method. Hence, major eutrophication of bodies of water occurs downstream of farmland. We could also do a better job extracting useful elements from sewage.

    One ray of hope is that a researcher (couldn't find the link in a quick Google) recently developed a proof-of-concept way to extract specific elements from seawater. If the method scales and becomes economical, that could be a game changer.

    1499:

    Putin fucked it up, big time. I really don't know why he didn't realise that (a) the western anti-Russian camps were itching for conflict and (b) that he didn't have a hope in hell against them. If he had been a competent politician, he would have proposed a UN referendum on Crimea and the UN to take charge of eastern Ukraine, and forced Obama/Biden to veto those. Or done it in Trump's time, and take pot luck.

    1500:

    Phosphorus leaches very slowly, too, so many previously-fertilised soils probably have plenty, anyway. All that is needed is enough to compensate for the amount being removed in crops.

    1501:

    u expect thing to start going visibly south for the russians soon? i guess it's possible

    i don't think he trusted the un tho

    1502:

    I really don't know, but probably. How bad it gets depends on whether Zelenskyy is more restrained than his polemic suggests (which I suspect equates to whether he can rein his more rabid Russian-haters), and whether countries like the UK continue to provide Ukraine with medium-range offensive weapons. It's entirely reasonable for Ukraine to hit back at Russia proper, but for NATO countries to move from providing their dominant weaponry from use for defence and encirclement to using them for actual attack?

    If missiles provided by the UK start to be used on Moscow or even Voronezh, that's a BIG escalation.

    Who do you mean? Obama or Putin? As I said, Putin publicly proposed that the eastern Ukraine mess be handed over to the UN, and Obama vetoed it. I agree that Putin wouldn't have trusted the UN over Crimea, but my point there is that he should have done.

    1503:

    As Colin Powell asked when the wall fell:

    What do you do, when you have lost your best enemy ?

    1504:

    the only thing that bothers me is that if russia starts losing they may decide to get the tactical nukes out, which would be regrettable

    i meant putin, yeah. so russia should have held onto the moral high ground by not taking over crimea? must have been a hard call

    1505:

    »There's a fuck-tonne of phosphate-bearing rock«

    ... and most of them suffer from a comparatively high uranium content.

    During the cold war, mining phosphates with a side-stream of uranium was very profitable.

    In Florida the spoilstacks from phosphate mining causes some kind of environmental disaster approximately twice a decade.

    1506:

    greg, ur hyperventilating, not everything is about adolf

    No, not everything is about adolf, I mean Putin, and that is the problem. If it were all about Putin, he would have withdrawn long time ago, or never invaded in the first place. But it is a lot bigger than Putin.

    First, look up Russian poet Joseph Brodsky (1940–1996). He's relatively well known in the West due to winning a Nobel prize in literature, but his cultural influence is probably underestimated. Brodsky was not just a poet, he was THE last great poet of Russian literary canon. After being persecuted by the Soviet authorities, Brodsky emigrated to the US. He was showered with prizes, honors and awards. He won the Nobel Prize and in 1991 became the US Poet Laureate.

    And here is a poem Brodsky read in Palo Alto in 1992. Although written and published in the US, the poem "On Ukrainian independence" is probably the most widely quoted and impactful political manifesto of the post-Soviet Russia. It's SUPER nationalist:

    https://youtu.be/grFRNnPePJw

    Literal translation into English is almost impossible because Brodsky uses a lot of slang and words with double meaning. Here is probably the best translation — not word for word, but carries the intent perfectly:

    https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1516162651247710210

    The last line refers to Alexander Pushkin and Taras Shevchenko — the greatest poets of respectively, Russian and Ukrainian language and culture.

    And here is Kremlin mouthpiece called "Ria", which back in March 2022 lays out Russia’s goals for Ukraine. I very much recommend putting it into Google translate. It is.. eye-opening:

    https://ria.ru/20220403/ukraina-1781469605.html

    The title is "What must Russia do with Ukraine". I am not translating the whole thing, but here are the highlights:

    Denazification is necessary when a significant part of the people - most likely the majority - has been mastered and drawn into the Nazi regime in its politics. That is, when the hypothesis "the people are good - the government is bad" does not work. Recognition of this fact is the basis of the policy of denazification, of all its measures, and the fact itself is its subject matter.

    Denazification is a set of measures in relation to the nazified mass of the population, which technically cannot be subjected to direct punishment as war criminals.

    However, in addition to the top, a significant part of the masses, which are passive Nazis, accomplices of Nazism, are also guilty.

    And then goes on to advocate complete suppression of even the word "Ukraine", as the Nazis get in via knowledge of history.

    In short, it is not about Putin. It is about Russian nationalists who are determined to restore Russian Empire under the banner of Orthodox Church (also known as "The Third Rome"), and have been at it since 1992. Alexander Dugin is the best known, but is far from the only one. What makes nationalists so dangerous is the lack of any other coherent ideology in Russia. Incidentally, Alexander Solzhenitsyn was very much ones of them. Like Brodsky, being persecuted by the Communists did not make him a friend of the West or of liberal democracy.

    The ultimate goal is total erasure of "Ukrainian" as a national identity. As far as Russian nationalists are concerned, "Ukraine" is a made-up entity, and in reality is just a misbehaving province of Russia. And after Putin is dead, they will still be just as determined.

    1507:

    No, what he should have done is demand a UN referendum of Crimean residents of whether they wanted to join Russia; it almost certainly would have passed. But it would have been a slight gamble, and a politician's gambit, and he is not that sort of a person.

    1508:

    The ultimate goal is total erasure of "Ukrainian" as a national identity. As far as Russian nationalists are concerned, "Ukraine" is a made-up entity, and in reality is just a misbehaving province of Russia. And after Putin is dead, they will still be just as determined.

    Which is why, if Ukraine, with outside help, manages to expel the Russians, the only way they get to insure the Russian border doesn't get violated casually is to join NATO, so that article 5 helps keep the nationalists out until something else comes along.

    Anyway, thanks for making that clearer. I take it those in power in Russia are mashing on the "Nazis in the Ukraine" and "We don't want another civil war" propaganda buttons with dismal regularity? At least they're not selling "Make Russia Great Again" hats. I hope.

    1509:

    Those were kept under control until sometime round about 2020, and could have previously been eliminated as a political entity if 'the west' hadn't been so determined to turn Russia into an enemy (which started from 1990 onwards).

    It is often and correctly said that Russia is prone to paranoia, but many Russians have felt that the west's intent has been the total erasure of "Russian" as a national identity, and it is very hard to deny that is a reasonable interpretation of the facts.

    The big problem now is that neither side even WANTS to descalate the situation :-(

    1510:

    those guys sound a little fringe to me, u reckon they want to occupy the whole of ukraine and put them in reeducation camps like china with the uighurs? not sure the resources to do that are going to be available

    1511:

    how do you bring a country with a massive festering border dispute with a neighbor it's just lost a huge chunk of territory to into nato tho? isn't that just asking to be drawn in as soon as the aggrieved party recovers enough to start things off again?

    This issue is why Ukraine won't be allowed to join NATO until after its war with Russia is over. Even though Russia's military is third-rate, I doubt any NATO country desires a hot war with Russia - if only because of the possibility of a nuclear exchange.

    1512:

    Are you terminally stupid, or a putin-troll?

    I vote putin-troll...

    1513:

    This issue is why Ukraine won't be allowed to join NATO until after its war with Russia is over.

    which it never will be, barring russia's abject surrender

    but perhaps that's the idea

    I vote putin-troll...

    he's being fucking slow with the payments, i can tell u

    1514:

    No. The "industrialists" were horrified by the Bolsheviks, and you can't be allowed to install socialism, you know... (/snark)

    1515:

    Which is something I've ranted about for decades. The West made it clear that everything they'd said was bs, and they did hate Russia and Russians, and wanted Russia to be dealt with like the Ottoman Empire, not like Germany and Japan.

    1516:

    those guys sound a little fringe to me,

    When it comes to politics, vast majority of Russians are notoriously apathetic. Bolsheviks were certainly a fringe in 1917, yet their coup succeeded because hardly anyone bothered to resist them. Likewise, when Soviet Union dissolved, absolutely nobody took to the streets in protest. https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ApatheticCitizens pretty much describes Russian mindset. "Meet new boss, same as old boss" "Eh, whatever"

    And when population as a whole can't be arsed to care about how they are governed or where the country is heading, then a small fringe which DOES care, has a disproportionate impact.

    u reckon they want to occupy the whole of ukraine and put them in reeducation camps like china with the uighurs? not sure the resources to do that are going to be available

    I am not saying they will succeed, or even come close, but it is certainly Dugin's wet dream.

    1517:

    Greg! Don't be silly. The most heat is from the CPU itself.

    1518:

    That is why I don't believe in the 'representative democracy' religion. It is also true of most such countries, with the caveat that in many their claimed caring is merely tribalism. Yes, USA and UK, I mean you.

    1519:

    he's being fucking slow with the payments, i can tell u

    It's still better than working for Donald Trump! 😂

    1520:

    Neither absolute good nor absolute evil do or can exist.

    1521:

    "ZERO heat losses in transmission cables & transformers ... your computer no longer gets hot etc"

    (Also to SFreader @ 1462:)

    CPUs produce heat via zillions of capacitors getting charged and discharged through resistive paths. As long as the resistance of the interconnections is Reasonably Small, it can be ignored. Most of the dissipation is switching losses in the transistors, which cannot go between infinite and zero resistance in zero time. I suppose you could design a CPU with superconducting reactive interconnections that did all its charge transfers quasi-resonantly, but I strongly doubt it would be worth the candle even if the "superconducting" part was as easy as "semiconducting" is.

    Getting superconductors to work at easy temperatures is only part of the problem; you also have to get them to work at useful current densities and magnetic field strengths. Even though research so far has produced several materials which do superconduct at sort of not too awful temperatures, hospitals and cerns and so on are still in love with liquid helium because that's still where we're at with superconductors that are actually useful. So unless the new material is multiply miraculous, we can't count on it being any use for transformers, or for motors, generators etc. In any case, a material with similarly ideal magnetic properties would also be needed for the magnetic circuits of such devices before you'd also be able to get rid of the core loss.

    Transmission lines are probably the most hopeful since there is the most scope to compensate for limited current density by making them bigger, but unless you're happy with the material requirements going through the roof that's unlikely to help much. It does have to be said, though, that if you could get it to work, it would be super for third rail systems.

    1522:

    "Folks here probably know: did the Internet speed up/increase household adoption of cable so that users didn't have to make a choice between using their phone lines for phone calls vs. using their phone line for going online?"

    As far as the UK is concerned, it basically caused it. There were a very few local cable TV installations which nobody remembers any more once upon a time, but it was just so very much easier to broadcast it. There was an attempt to get a cable TV system going on a scale large enough to cover a significant percentage of the country, but not until after satellite TV had already started up, and it was expensive and shit; it would have died the death if the internet hadn't come along in time to save it. High speed internet was mostly ADSL until very recently, and it's only now that fibre cable is becoming "universally" available, in significant part because of the plague encouraging people to use the internet a lot more.

    1523:

    Geoff Hart @ 1498
    I'll certainly believe that "the Chinese" use far too much NPK.
    My favourite relatively slow-release fertilizer ( On the plot & in my greenhouse ) is "Chicken Manure Pellets" - and - you rerally do not need a lot fo them to make plants "go" quite well ...

    EC @ 1499
    NO: The lease on Sevastopol was running out, so he "just" jumped it.
    Also, he reckoned, from previous attepts, mostly successful, that he could "simply" do it again.

    • also @1500
      Plant more BEANS then .....
      { And other Nitrogen-fixing crops, as well. }

    @1502
    Zelensky is more restrained than his polemic suggests - You mean outrageous demands like: ...
    1: We ONLY want all of Ukraine back, & not any more than that.
    2: A permanent end to you bombing anywhere in our patch, & especially places like Blood Transfusion Centres, eh?
    3: War Crimes Trials @ The Hauge for Bucha & other blood-soaked patches.
    4: WE WANT OUR CHILDREN BACK
    Whose kool-aid are you drinking?

    PLEASE NOTE - I have not said a single word in support of the USA, have I?

    Ilya187
    Exactly - as Charlie has noted in the past, there's a VERY NASTY slice of Russian Ethnonatiopnalism going back a very long way, with threads of "Blood & Soil" that would be right at home with the Nazis. Oh, & thank you for mentioning Dugin, but there are plenty of others.
    .....determined to restore Russian Empire under the banner of Orthodox Church (also known as "The Third Rome"), and have been at it since 1992 ... erm, excuse me?
    LONG BEFORE THAT - there are references to: "No Third Rome" in Sergei Eisenstein's films, notably "Ivan the Terrible" - i.e. - under Stalin.

    EC @ 1508
    Bollocks

    Pigeon
    you also have to get them to work at useful current densities and magnetic field strengths - YES - this.
    Absolutely correct & - even if the current claims are correct, it's going to be very interesting

    1524:

    Re: 'If we ran agriculture as a closed-cycle process, we could capture unused nutrients before they enter the water system, but this isn't yet the standard method. Hence, major eutrophication of bodies of water occurs downstream of farmland. We could also do a better job extracting useful elements from sewage.'

    Yes - I'd very much like to see this happen!

    I'm hoping agriculture becomes urbanized sooner rather than later. Apart from better recycling of key nutrients, it would also reduce the total cost (dollar & ecological) of transporting basic foodstuffs, help improve food security, and allow rewilding of some agricultural areas*. And probably help develop some new tech. Basically, I'm thinking a variety of food factories/manufacturies. Urbanizing this would also bring more jobs into cities. Not sure what the current numbers are but COVID work-from-home resulted in approx. 25%-30% vacancy rates in office buildings at some point. Re-purposing office buildings should be possible. BTW, it's been demonstrated that the newer urban ag does not need a ton of water.

    The other reasons I keep harping about reducing ag transport: shortage of large/long haul drivers, plus an increase in weather related losses/disruptions of the foodstuffs being transported. If you don't break the dependency on imported/transported-over-long-distances foods, at some point a major region/urban area is going to suffer a severe food shortage. When basics can't be obtained legally, then that area/population is more likely to take matters into its own hands, i.e. do something illegal like get into the food trailer heist biz.

    *GW is already making some ag areas/regions less productive therefore you could try the historical/classic option of expanding in the nearby/adjacent areas or you could try something else (i.e., urban ag). Apart from more frequent extreme weather events that make it risky to use large scale ag machines/equipment on a timely basis, some of the crops historically planted in these areas are not adapting to the new climate - they're failing. There's also what looks like an increase in microbes/fungi affecting different crops and some of these are new (no treatment available).

    Anyways, the jumble above is what I've gleaned from my occasional reading on the current state of agriculture. Corrections/pointers to better integrated info always appreciated - thanks!

    1525:

    »even if the "superconducting" part was as easy as "semiconducting" is.«

    That is actually one of the most interesting bits of the theoretical analyses on the new material: Depending on which Pb atom you substitute with Cu, you either get a super-conductor or a semi-conductor.

    However, there are several hundreds of other variables which has to fall just right for this to get anywhere near a prototype-chip, much less mass production.

    1526:

    "... and most of them suffer from a comparatively high uranium content."

    Good point - I'd forgotten about that. Phosphates are rather fond of uranium, so where the first accumulates the second usually does too. Seagull shit is the main exception.

    However, I wouldn't use the word "suffer"; I regard it as an advantage. You get two useful things in the same rock. So you can take it apart and put the phosphate on the fields and the uranium in the reactors. And since you need a lot of phosphate to put on the fields, and it comes with at least 10x the energy content of the same mass of coal, it's a convenient opportunity to stop eating oil and have a goodly amount of energy left for other things.

    (Economists who argue that this is "impossible" by treating uranium as solely described by some imaginary property which changes from moment to moment according to the will of the fairies can eat my shit.)

    I can't say I'm too surprised that this bit of geochemistry has its connection with the long list of things the postwar military-connected nuclear industry fucked up.

    1527:

    I don't think that's unique to this stuff; AIUI the electronic configurations which are favourable to those two properties have a fair bit in common, and many of the other materials which have been investigated in the past can more or less reasonably be described as semiconductors when in their non-superconducting state. However, there are a heck of a lot of things which are technically semiconductors but aren't useful ones, and I haven't heard of any of these materials turning out to be an exception.

    1528:

    I suppose you could regard guano as a long-term closure of the loop for at least some phosphate :)

    (Agree entirely with all the problems you cite with it, though.)

    1529:

    David L @ 1484:

    Here in the Raleigh/Durham area of North Carolina we tended and still get things faster than much of the country. Higher incomes with a heavy STEM concentration in the populations. Currently I have a choice of Spectrum Cable (100-1000/10-30), AT&T Fiber (300-1000) and Google Fiber (500-5000). Plus Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile 5G wireless at a speed of around 50 depending.

    Helps that one of the primary nodes for the ARPANET/NSFNET backbone was out at RTP.

    Plus whatever AT&T (back when AT&T was THE monopoly carrier in the U.S.) put in that hole out in Chatham County for the Department of Defense.

    We were getting the benefits of being wired up around here even before Al Gore heard about the internet. 😏

    1530:

    (Economists who argue that this is "impossible" by treating uranium as solely described by some imaginary property which changes from moment to moment according to the will of the fairies can eat my shit.)

    What imaginary property is that? Serious question, as it sounds like some (?) economists treat uranium in a very weird manner, which I am completely unfamiliar with.

    1531:

    AlanD2 @ 1486:

    "In my not so informed never served in the military opinion, cluster munitions are very much anti personnel and anti light vehicle."

    Agreed. Since a lot of the fighting in Ukraine now involves attacking Russians in trenches, cluster munitions are a lot better than conventional artillery shells, as the bomblets are widely dispersed and more likely to fall into the trenches.

    Conventional shells - which are in short supply - can be saved for things like armored vehicles, which are less commonly encountered.

    Back some time in the mid to late 80s, I was out on OP5 [35.10681673403386, -79.12364906028716] at Ft Liberty (when it used to be Ft Bragg). At the time the Fort was an open post & you could go out there without a hassle from security.

    OP5 was/is on top of a tall hill & had dark skies, good for photographing stars.

    It was designed to have a very good view of the impact areas to the south-west & Sicily Drop Zone to the north-west. It had bleachers for VIPs or trainees to sit on whenever the Army put on firepower displays ...

    As it happened, there was an AC-130 gunship doing a night training mission over the impact areas to the south-west. The 105mm gun was firing some kind of "improved conventional munition". What I saw suggested the shell bursting spread the sub-munitions and then the sub-munitions themselves detonated while still in the air.

    You'd see this white blob lazily angling down (followed a second or two later by a muffled "whoomp") and just before it reached the ground it burst into a little cloud of explosions that went off like strings of firecrackers - a large number of what looked like small starbursts spread around the area making a crackling sound.

    If there had been trenches in the target area the sub-munitions bursting in the air would have sprayed shrapnel down into them & any personnel without sufficient overhead cover would have been toast.

    1532:

    Greg Tingey @ 1487:

    John S
    I would add to your statement in # 1482: IF someday Ukraine, like Estonia AND Latvia AND Lithuania should become a member of NATO, it will be because Russia has driven them to do so in self defense - yes?

    Yeah, Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania are already NATO memebers & what I understand is they sought to join just as soon as they got free at the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The reason for the large IF is that NATO won't accept their application for membership as long as they're involved in a territorial dispute with Russia.

    Even IF the war was over, if the dispute is not resolved they wouldn't be able to become a NATO member country until the territorial dispute with Russia was settled. My understanding is no one in Ukraine was looking for NATO membership when the Russians started to get shitty back in 2014(?) ... Ukraine just wanted to join the European Economic Community - free TRADE, not a military alliance.

    I think if Viktor Yanukovych hadn't reneged on that promise the whole history of Ukraine would be different. Ukraine might even have been Russia's gateway into the EU.

    1533:

    Greg Tingey @ 1495:

    Are you terminally stupid, or a putin-troll?

    They are not mutually exclusive.

    1534:

    .....determined to restore Russian Empire under the banner of Orthodox Church (also known as "The Third Rome"), and have been at it since 1992 ... erm, excuse me? LONG BEFORE THAT

    Sorry if my phrasing was misleading. "Moscow is the Third Rome" is Russian mysticism that dates to 1450's, when Constantinople ("second Rome") fell to Muslims, while Tsar Ivan III of Moscovy happened to be married to the sister of Constantinople's last ruler.

    It certainly did not start in 1992, but that's when nationalists took it up as a rallying cry -- they could not exactly do that while USSR still existed.

    1535:

    Elderly Cynic @ 1499:

    Putin fucked it up, big time. I really don't know why he didn't realise that (a) the western anti-Russian camps were itching for conflict and (b) that he didn't have a hope in hell against them. If he had been a competent politician, he would have proposed a UN referendum on Crimea and the UN to take charge of eastern Ukraine, and forced Obama/Biden to veto those. Or done it in Trump's time, and take pot luck.

    I don't think "(a)" was true and if Putin had proposed a UN referendum BEFORE invading Crimea, the U.S. probably would have argued against it, but would not have vetoed it.

    1536:

    You mean outrageous demands like: ...

    1: We ONLY want all of Ukraine back, & not any more than that.

    2: A permanent end to you bombing anywhere in our patch, & especially places like Blood Transfusion Centres, eh?

    3: War Crimes Trials @ The Hauge for Bucha & other blood-soaked patches.

    greg, these are the sort of demands u make when u've actually won a war, not just when daily kos says u might

    i suppose u think the shelling of the donbas by ukraine was staged as well

    thos damn putin psyops, will we never be free of them

    1537:

    I don't think "(a)" was true and if Putin had proposed a UN referendum BEFORE invading Crimea, the U.S. probably would have argued against it, but would not have vetoed it.

    is the un normally keen on areas of countries which don't want to be part of the country they're in any more voting to leave and set up shop elsewhere? i thought that was frowned upon as there were a whole bunch of such areas last time i checked

    1538:

    i suppose u think the shelling of the donbas by ukraine was staged as well

    I think Russia started a stupid war and has no grounds for whining when people start shooting back.

    If they can't handle being in a war they shouldn't have invaded Ukraine.

    1539:

    »is the un normally keen on areas of countries which don't want to be part of the country they're in any more voting to leave and set up shop elsewhere?«

    There is one precedent for these kinds of problems which would be very hard to ignore for UN: The partitioning of Schleswig between Denmark and Germany after first world war.

    You could vote in the election, which were parish by parish, if you were born there, no matter where you lived in the world, but you had to show up in person with ID-papers they could correlate to the church's register.

    That principle nailed down that whatever happened in the past, the life belongs to (all) the living.

    (More on wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duchy_of_Schleswig)

    It would be very hard for UK, USA, FR, DE and DK to refuse, if somebody somewhere wanted to resolve their dispute this way, and I doubt China would veto it.

    This is why many diplomats expect Israel to pull this gambit to make their lebensraum "official", once their "settlements" have produced enough kids.

    Putin did not propose this resolution for Crimea, because he would have lost: The displaced persons would have votes and his bussed in emigrants would not.

    1540:

    SFR
    Urbanised agriculture is called: ALLOTMENT KEEPING - but it is hard, physical work, & lots of people simply can't be arsed, or are hopeless at it.

    John S
    Yes, that was my point - see also below.

    ilya187
    Thanks for the additional clarification.
    Unfortunately, that means that this particular piece of ethnonationalistic fantasy is very deep-seated, doesn't it?

    adrian smithski
    What about: We want our Children back then?
    I note you carefully omtted that one & I saw you palm that card....
    { SEE ALSO SS @ 1538? And P H-K @ 1639 }

    Meanwhile: - Update from the Grauniad - this is not really "new" but a clearly deliberate ratcheting-up.
    I would advise the Poles & Lithuanians to pull back between 5 & 10k from their actual borders, so that any real violation leaves dead bodies & equipment clearly on their own soil ....

    1541:

    you left out the demand for reparations as well

    returning the kids to their parents shouldn't be that hard, unless u think the russians have already rendered them down for adrenochrome on general principles

    1542:

    There were a lot of people both within and without Ukraine pushing for it to cut ties with Russia and apply for NATO membership even before 2010. And the evidence that the west was itching for conflict is overwhelming - even in the anti-Russian UK press, the number of times that Ukraine was being told "Don't talk to Russia - pursue a military solution, and we will back you" was legion.

    Russia was triggered into seizing Crimea because of the 2013 putsch, which evidence from Reuters showed pretty clearly was externally orchestrated. Indeed, I am pretty certain that all of Russia, the USA and NATO knew of it in advance.

    It had no military option, because the stated intent by many of the principals was to renege on a treaty with Russia and turn Sebastopol into a NATO base. As I said, imagine if Cuba cancelled the treaty giving access to Guantanamo and proposed to make it a Russian military base - only Sebastopol is more important and closely-linked to Russia than Guantanamo is to the USA.

    While Poul-Henning Kamp MAY be correct, my reading of the situation from largely neutral sources (mainly Reuters and Al Jazeera) is that he is wrong. The western press almost all spouts the anti-Russia propaganda unmuted, even when it is proven wrong. Remember that the initial protests against the new, fanatically anti-Russian government happened BEFORE Russia had invaded.

    1543:

    And the evidence that the west was itching for conflict is overwhelming
    REALLY?
    In your head, perhaps.

    1544:

    I take it those in power in Russia are mashing on the "Nazis in the Ukraine"

    Reading between the lines for the last 2 years it seems that Russia/Putin wants to make sure the Russian population equates Nazis with Ukrainians that don't want to be a part of Russia.

    If you get that embedded into people's thoughts then elimination of Ukraine is a necessary thing. Especially since much of the Soviet and Russian myth of necessity is based on being anti-Nazi. At least since 1940.

    1545:

    As far as the UK is concerned, it basically caused it. There were a very few local cable TV installations which nobody remembers any more once upon a time, but it was just so very much easier to broadcast it.

    In the US there was a demand/regulatory environment for 80-100 channel TV in the 80s. Which allowed cable TV to built everywhere. With a side order of franchised monopolies by smallish local areas. I have no knowledge but suspect this was not so true in the UK or Europe in the 80s.

    More like 50 channels once you eliminated the "no one watches but there for the public good" stations.

    Plus the US had a "thriving" market of local TV. Most people had access to 3 or 4 LOCAL TV channels. The local news and coverage of things in western KY was very different than in Chicago. And again, I suspect things were different in the UK and Europe.

    1546:

    The other reasons I keep harping about reducing ag transport: shortage of large/long haul driver

    There is no shortage in the US. Especially starting this week. But what shortage there was was a blip to some degree caused by the pandemic and a 2 year change in habits that has mostly receded. In the US at least.

    1547:

    I'm hoping agriculture becomes urbanized sooner rather than later. Apart from better recycling of key nutrients, it would also reduce the total cost (dollar & ecological) of transporting basic foodstuffs, help improve food security, and allow rewilding of some agricultural areas*.

    Piling on to what Greg said, agriculture in the US and other parts of the world became industrialized so that everyone could eat without 90% of the population working in food production.

    And it drove prices way down.

    These 2 books likely cover much of it.

    https://www.amazon.com/Story-Great-Atlantic-Pacific-Company/dp/1531606660

    https://www.amazon.com/Great-Struggle-Small-Business-America/dp/0578562103

    Prior to A&P much agriculture was local, through local wholesalers to local grocery stores. One store to about 50 families as I recall.

    A&P drove most of these folks out of business due to their lower costs and prices. But not after lots of localities tried to stop with with local much use a wholesaler laws and such.

    1548:

    David L
    Um, err: "At least since 1941" actually - before that the USSR & Nazi germany were supposed "allies", carving up Poland & swallowing the Baltics, yes?

    1549:

    SFReader [1524] noted: "I'm hoping agriculture becomes urbanized sooner rather than later."

    And brought under cover (e.g., greenhouses, vertical farms). My biggest concern is how climate change is hitting places formerly not hit. For example, Scientific American recently published an article that predicted Argentina, one of the largest wheat producers in the world, was going to lose at least half of this year's wheat crop to heat and drought. Canada's been lucky escaping such disasters, though we lost much of our canola crop and beef industry (no affordable fodder) to weather. Those are warnings that nobody's paying much attention to, other than to flap their hands and make concerned noises.

    My retirement project (hopefully starting late this year) will be to research indoor agriculture and see if I can develop an open-source greenhouse model that can be scaled up or down depending on what resources are available (e.g., plastic film rather than glass, bamboo rather than aluminum). First step will be to do a lot of reading to make sure I understand the design constraints; I have good overview knowledge, but not enough details to actually start developing such a project. Then I need to find people with the relevant expertise to provide skills I lack (e.g., engineers, farmers). If I'm able to get the project rolling, I'll advertise the results here. It seems likely to be of general interest.

    SFReader: "it would also reduce the total cost (dollar & ecological) of transporting basic foodstuffs, help improve food security, and allow rewilding of some agricultural areas*."

    Very yes. One of the huge problems in (for example) Africa is that rural farmers have no way to transport their crops to big cities before the food spoils. Moving the farms close to the cities would mitigate this problem and enormously improve food security.

    SFReader: "Urbanizing this would also bring more jobs into cities."

    A related project I'm just starting to wrap my head around is how to help the many farmers who have become climate refugees. I'd ideally like to set them up with greenhouses or equivalent and put them to work growing foods that we don't currently produce locally (to avoid conflict with existing farmers) and must import from long distances. Covid-19 revealed the problems with relying on long and vulnerable supply chains. Note that this proposal would work on the model of low- or zero-cost government loans so the farmers could establish themselves as a private business, not "you do unpaid labor in the fields for the privilege of becoming Canadian".

    SFReader: "at some point a major region/urban area is going to suffer a severe food shortage."

    As the saying goes, no modern city is more than [number] days from rioting and disaster if the food supply chain breaks. I'll be interested in seeing more information on the ban on rice exports from India. Clearly, someone got the wind up their back and started thinking proactively.

    Speaking of which, what I'd really like to see is the UN setting up a program for automatically and continuously shipping supplies of staple crops to countries that periodically experience major agricultural failures due to (for example) drought. That is, turning this into ongoing support with a gradually improving support infrastructure rather than providing food too late and only when the crisis can no longer be ignored. Lots of issues to solve with this suggestion, including how to avoid harming local farmers and preventing despots from selling the food and pocketing the money, but isn't it better to be proactive than waiting until a crisis is in full swing before responding?

    1550:

    supposed

    And I was rounding. We didn't pay as much attention to the details as we should have before Dec of 41.

    1551:

    Re: 'My retirement project (hopefully starting late this year) will be to research indoor agriculture and see if I can develop an open-source greenhouse model that can be scaled up or down depending on what resources are available (e.g., plastic film rather than glass, bamboo rather than aluminum).'

    Good luck and keep us posted! I buy most of my produce at Costco - freshness and quality - and quite a lot of it comes from non-traditional ag producers. A few years back when I needed some home renovation work done including some lighting, I came across some articles about how a few Canadian unis were working with ag producers to develop better lighting systems to increase crop yields and quality. (I think both the producers and the unis were out West somewhere in BC and/or Alberta. As an academic/researcher, you're probably well-positioned to get more info.)

    I'm very interested in the SA LINE project and keep looking for related updates. Key reason for my interest is that none of the info I've seen so far has discussed how they're going to feed the population. Yeah - there's going to be a massive transport line running underground through the entire city. Great - but only if outside food supplies don't run out and can be shipped from harbors that haven't been destroyed by floods/water erosion.

    Found this today: an Infrastructure EXPO (Sept 11-13/23) with lots of focus on water. Considering that SA just doubled its budget to $1 Trillion for LINE, pretty sure this Expo is going to attract a lot of corps eager to sell them on the latest infrastructure related tech.

    https://www.tradearabia.com/news/IND_412061.html

    Perception of agriculture - unsolicited suggestions :)

    I think public perception of what modern and future farming is and can be needs a major overhaul in order for urbanization (vertical farming) to become viable. Easiest way is via education. Also contests, preferably among younger folk (high school/uni students & start-up businesses) - the prize amounts don't have to be huge but large and interesting enough to get some media coverage. (I'm guessing that for winners this would also be a plus/bonus point on a uni application form/CV.)

    Maybe Robert knows: Does agriculture ever show up as part of school science fairs? If not - what needs to happen to make ag a potential category?

    Refugee/displaced farmers entering the vertical farming industry - not sure how well this would work mostly because there seems to be a subset of folks esp. in older occupations/trades who refuse to adapt to the times. ('That's not real XXX!' and 'But we've always done it this way!')

    Greg: Allotment gardens

    Great idea and hopefully people will continue to use allotments BUT that's nowhere near enough to feed an urban population year-round in increasingly iffy weather. BTW - how's your guerrilla planted tree doing? Over here all the trees and shrubs experienced a second accelerated growth spurt about a month ago with lots of new/differently colored foliage on all the limbs. The down side is that it seems that the corvids have disappeared. Hopefully they just temporarily moved to a cooler location and will return in the fall.

    Tie-in to SA Expo - Maybe some Londoners (ahem) might consider nudging the Lord Mayor of London into sending someone from their Water/Sewage Dept. to learn about possible ways for modern cities to not contaminate their municipal water supply. Haven't checked this but am of the impression that when London was rebuilt after the fire the major spend on infrastructure was for its water and sewage systems. (So much for learning from history, civic pride.)

    1552:

    Does agriculture ever show up as part of school science fairs?

    Isn't that what 4H clubs and State Fairs are for?

    1553:

    Maybe Robert knows: Does agriculture ever show up as part of school science fairs? If not - what needs to happen to make ag a potential category?

    None that I've been to, but anecdote isn't data. Possibly it happens in areas that actually have farming? (I've always taught in cities.)

    Other factor for science fairs is that farming isn't 'cool', so I wonder a bit how that would affect a student's chance of winning.

    1554:

    Ag projects turn up in plant science categories for regional and national science fairs (I judged one long ago). But I agree, development of ag skill is better shown at county and state fairs.

    Ag science projects are things like a kid trying to figure out if a weed growing on his uncle's farm could be turned into a useful pesticide for cheap (it could, kind of, and it was one of the more original science projects. It lost to some Thai kids figuring out how to turn the chitin from waste shrimp shells and easily available chemicals into bowls and utensils, which they made and showed.).

    Ag fair projects are more about growing and showing plants and animals.

    Complementary skills.

    1555:

    Maybe Robert knows: Does agriculture ever show up as part of school science fairs? If not - what needs to happen to make ag a potential category?

    In the US high schools in non urban areas we had FFA. Future Farmers of America. As a club. In my school they were definitely not a part of the in crowd. Teenagers can be such pricks. This was in the early 1970s.

    And living in an area surrounded by farming with an agri oriented state fair every year, I will posit there is very little overlap between the STEM oriented folks and those oriented to ag. Except for shopping at the various farmers markets.

    As to Costco, a lot of my purchases of "out of season" fruit / produce there has origin labels from Peru, Chile, etc... This is in North Carolina.

    1556:

    Re: '... living in an area surrounded by farming with an agri oriented state fair every year'

    Yeah - my point: ag needs an image overhaul/rebranding! Even the folks on this blog strongly associate ag with rural and not urban industry/jobs.

    Heteromeles @ 1554: 'Thai kids ... turn the chitin from waste shrimp shells and easily available chemicals into bowls and utensils'

    That is brilliant! Chitin can also be turned into glass.

    1557:

    my point: ag needs an image overhaul/rebranding! Even the folks on this blog strongly associate ag with rural and not urban industry/jobs.

    The public image of North Carolina agriculture is small to mid sized family farms. One of the PBS state oriented show intros is a 15 second or so tribute to such.

    But we also have huge chicken and turkey operations. HUGE.

    And some of our slaughter houses run 1000 to 3000 pigs a day through them.

    If you want to get funding in ag here, figure out how to shave $.05 off the cost of getting a live chicken into a package for a grocery store. Or even $.01.

    1558:

    "First step will be to do a lot of reading to make sure I understand the design constraints; I have good overview knowledge, but not enough details to actually start developing such a project."

    Hoping this isn't educational advice to female ancestors on ovisuction, but I'd be highly inclined to regard books not as a source of knowledge which stands on its own, but as one which may be secondary to studying photographs of the kind of things people round the world actually build at the moment (in default of being able to visit them) - not manufacturers' photographs, but ordinary people's snapshots of bits of random international Greggery. It strikes me that this is the kind of area where what people "should" do and what they actually do do are likely to be highly divergent, for reasons which may well not be readily apparent and which are outside the scope of the books; and a design which doesn't take account of that kind of thing is likely to have a hard time with people saying "yeah but you can't/it doesn't [something you'd never have thought of]" and sticking with what they've got.

    "Covid-19 revealed the problems with relying on long and vulnerable supply chains."

    If only people had actually taken notice...

    1559:

    "when London was rebuilt after the fire"

    No. About 200 years after that. When the stench of the festering sewage in the Thames finally got so bad that Members of Parliament were barfing on their benches. Useful search term: Joseph Bazalgette.

    1560:

    set them up with greenhouses or equivalent

    Do you mean cold-houses? Even in the temperate parts of Australia the problem is increasingly that growing staples outside is hard because they get too hot and dry to produce properly.

    Also, the issue for the most part is not leafy greens and similar fast crops, it's staples like rice and wheat. Bulk calories that come from huge tracts of land processed as mechanically as possible. We've discussed the problems of doing that inside before.

    "Harry's Farm" on youtube keeps mentioning that he's moving to ecological payments to leave fields fallow/grow wildflowers because the market for grain is all over the place just like the weather so the certain low payment is better than paying a lot of money to plant grain on the off chance that he might get it back at harvest doesn't work for him. That's partly UK-specific (the Cons own more buyers than sellers in that area), but partly a general problem faced by farmers as supermarkets etc consolidate and gain the political power to force monopsonsies on farmers. Ahem.

    1561:

    Re: 'When the stench of the festering sewage in the Thames finally got so bad that Members of Parliament were barfing on their benches ...'

    Based on a BBC news report that said that only '16% of surface waters achieved good ecological status', the MPs should start barfing any minute now.

    Probably not great for the tourism industry either. Imagine eating or drinking at a pub when in wafts a breeze off the Thames. Yeah, sure - that would go over real well with tourists.

    Then there's the French EPs who asked that the EU take action to stop the UK from polluting the Channel and North Sea.

    1562:

    Thing is there's a great big gap between failing to achieve "good ecological status" and being bad enough that people notice it and make a fuss (and an even bigger gap to being bad enough that the Victorians would notice it and make a fuss).

    It used to be pretty well standard that a few hundred metres offshore of any small coastal settlement, there would be a particular spot in the ocean where there were always seagulls circling about and eating things out of the water. If you took a boat out to see what made that particular spot different from all the other bits of ocean, you would discover a buoyant column of fresh water welling up through the salt, bearing with it miscellaneous turds and bits of bog roll. Indeed, there were many places where at low water springs you could walk out along the top of the pipe far enough to observe the upwelling from the end of it quite closely. It was inadvisable to go swimming below about half tide as you might meet a decohering jobby coming the other way to give you a big sloppy kiss, and the beaches always displayed a selection of tampons and the plastic insertion tools for them.

    However, unless you did go investigating what the seagulls were after at close quarters, it wasn't noticeably smelly; even at the point of release it was not intolerable, and by the time the gases reached the shore they were usually too dilute to smell anything. So nobody who lived there really noticed much, and the holidaymakers only noticed for a week or two each which wasn't enough for them to accumulate a serious level of off-pissedness. It was just normal, one of those things, and I'm sure there are cartoons in Viz which incorporate authentic detail. Left to itself, the British regulatory mechanism would never have done anything noticeable about it.

    1563:

    It was inadvisable to go swimming below about half tide as you might meet a ...

    Are you maligning the noble and much missed Bondi Cigar sirrah? I may have to ask you to step outside!

    1564:

    SFR
    All three of my trees are staggering along & surviving. The first one seems to be doing OK.

    Pigeon
    Useful link: Abbey Mills Pumping Station - as used in the film of Pterry's Hogfather (!)

    More fun for Drumpf - but, as with all of this:
    Will any of it make it to trial before next year's election?

    1565:
    Speaking of which, what I'd really like to see is the UN setting up a program for automatically and continuously shipping supplies of staple crops to countries that periodically experience major agricultural failures due to (for example) drought. That is, turning this into ongoing support with a gradually improving support infrastructure rather than providing food too late and only when the crisis can no longer be ignored. Lots of issues to solve with this suggestion, including how to avoid harming local farmers and preventing despots from selling the food and pocketing the money, but isn't it better to be proactive than waiting until a crisis is in full swing before responding?

    1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Food_Programme

    2: Famine relief is much chancier and more complicated than one might expect. Preserving people's ability to access food is the goal; obviously when there's no food in an area food needs to be shipped in, but breaking the area's economy (and therefore its food distribution when food is available, either locally or from imports when their prices are affordable) doesn't help long-term. This is to the point there are debates about food shortage relief via direct cash transfers so sufferers can afford food on the open market, rather than supplying food at all (as a very detached amateur the debate mostly seems to be "this is worth looking at but won't work as the only tool to alleviate food shortages"). People took Amartya Sen seriously.

    1566:

    More fun for Drumpf - but, as with all of this: Will any of it make it to trial before next year's election?

    While this looks like a big new deal from afar, locally (in the US) this is almost daily news. Even on the more center of the road news sources.

    Anyway, it will very likely happen that the federal case about Jan 6th will be coordinated to go first. It is the most straight forward one and the feds normally get to go ahead of state cases. And it was designed to be simple, to the point, and easy to get to trial with serious charges. If not for the coming election it would more than likely contain a much longer list of charges and defendants. But that could turn it into a 2 years before trial situation.

    1567:

    Comparing the pictures of the old one with the picture of the new one it's surprising to see that (according to the caption) the new one was actually designed by architects at all. They must be in the Masons.

    1568:

    "...it makes them soggy and harder to light."

    1569:

    Um, no. For one, a lot of these idiocies are just that - turn them into a country, and they have nothing near the resources needed to provide for their citizens.

    And then there's a certain country on the left side of the Pond that has about 31% of the population that would love to renegotiate a the resolution of a war that ended in 1865....

    1570:

    "Move farms closer to the cities"....

    1. Most of the populations have already relocated closer to the big city in the country.
    2. The US moved it all away - file under "urban sprawl destroys local farms."

    1571:

    sigh

    US reality check: "small family farms" are, in effect, hobby farms. As of the 1990 US Census, "family farmer" was no longer a "recognized occupation", since less than 1.5% of the population did it. Either they're medium-to-large" (tens of millions of dollars and up), or they're not.

    Note I have very close friends with a "family farm" in southeastern IN. 40 acres (split by the road), they grow some crops, raise sheep and chickens. She's a full time job as a chemist, and he does computer consulting. One of their kids moved away for real job, and the other is into theater, *not

    farming.

    1572:

    Yes, the Fulton Co, GA is serious. The general opinion in the press, including comments from his former lawyers and advisers, is that this is an open-and-shut case... and it's state, so the President can't pardon, and the state constitution says that the governor can't pardon, so this is jail. And that, of course, is on top of the federal 6 Jan chanrges....

    1573:

    US reality check: "small family farms" are, in effect, hobby farms.

    Yes. For many. But not totally. I'm thinking way more than 40 acres. 100, 200, or more. (This was true even back when I was a kid in the 60s.) And there are still those around run by a single family. Those big tractors make a difference.

    But as I said, most food things come out of factories. Open air or in buildings but factories none the less.

    But yes, I'll agree that a 40 acre farm is a hobby. I have a much older cousin who was a long haul pilot for Continental then UPS who always had a hobby farm where ever he lived.

    1574:

    US reality check: "small family farms" are, in effect, hobby farms.

    And around here, and I suspect many other parts of the US, there are some very small farms that grow veggies on a subscription basis. You pay so much per month or a lump sum in the spring and get a collection of vegetables delivered (or available for pickup) every week or two. In general you don't get to pick and choose. You get what is being harvested that week.

    And many times these folks tend to have booths at the local farmers markets to sell what isn't allocated to the subscription customers.

    1575:

    All three of my trees are staggering along & surviving. The first one seems to be doing OK.

    I've got a pear and an apple that are doing OK, given that I've done absolutely nothing but pick fruit from them for decades. Anyone near Toronto is invited to get in touch with me if they want to pick the harvest in the fall — you'll just have to bring your own ladder.

    I have a Norway maple I'd dearly like to kill in a way that looks natural. (Neighbour who delights in calling bylaw enforcement on people, even for problems he's caused.) Any suggestions welcome.

    1576:

    True. I see the average farm size is 440 acres. There are still a good number of small farms... but in a country with a population of over 330M.... https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/fnlo0222.pdf

    1577:

    whitroth @ 1572
    Oh GOOD ... except -
    IF he is jailed far enough in advance of next-years election ....
    THEN the "R's" have time enough to pick another-not-quite-so-obviously-fascist candidate, to defeat Biden?
    Timing is all ...

    1578:

    We should bring those back so all the English tourists at Bondi feel at home.

    1579:

    David L @ 1573:

    US reality check: "small family farms" are, in effect, hobby farms.

    Yes. For many. But not totally. I'm thinking way more than 40 acres. 100, 200, or more. (This was true even back when I was a kid in the 60s.) And there are still those around run by a single family. Those big tractors make a difference.

    But as I said, most food things come out of factories. Open air or in buildings but factories none the less.

    But yes, I'll agree that a 40 acre farm is a hobby. I have a much older cousin who was a long haul pilot for Continental then UPS who always had a hobby farm where ever he lived.

    Not necessarily. My father-in-law had a "40 acre farm" and it was no hobby.

    Got it, along with a pair of mules, from the U.S. government in the 1930s from one of FDR's "New Deal" programs. By the time I married his daughter, he was retired and his son was farming it, along with about 150 acres of rented land (something you could do with tractors, but too much do do with only mules pulling a plow) ... but the heart of their farm was still that original 40 acres.

    Much of the rented land was from other 40 acre farms in the area where the old farmer had died without children who wanted to carry on & my father-in-law/brother-in-law rented the land from the widow.

    1580:
    Um, no. For one, a lot of these idiocies are just that - turn them into a country, and they have nothing near the resources needed to provide for their citizens.

    Catalonia has a higher population than Arizona or Massachusetts, for context.

    1581:

    Our point was "back in the day" a 40 acre farm could exist. If you're in your 70s your father in law would likely have been born in the 1910s or 1920s. 40 acres then was a big deal. Especially given the size of tractors and such.

    Back to the vanishing family farm and government statistical collections. I have a strong suspicion that there are only a handful of farms country wide that are true "family" businesses. Most of them these days will be an LLC or similar and the owners getting a "paycheck" from this LLC. Which would make it hard to compare current stats with the stats of 50+ years ago.

    1582:

    Greg Tingey @ 1577:

    whitroth @ 1572
    Oh GOOD ... except -
    IF he is jailed far enough in advance of next-years election ....
    THEN the "R's" have time enough to pick another-not-quite-so-obviously-fascist candidate, to defeat Biden?
    Timing is all ...

    He almost certainly IS going to be the GQP candidate. Even with the most optimistic timetable for his various trials (and convictions are NOT guaranteed), he might be convicted before the 2024 election, but he ain't gonna' be in jail by then.

    IF he's convicted, he'll still be free pending appeals.

    I hope that's enough to defeat him and I hope the GQP rides his coattails to hell, but I don't see any way the GQP is going to nominate anyone else.

    That said, it might be important to consider who he chooses as his running mate, because if he does win AND he's convicted on the STATE charges, there's a good chance the provisions of Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will come into play.

    1583:

    And around here, and I suspect many other parts of the US, there are some very small farms that grow veggies on a subscription basis. You pay so much per month or a lump sum in the spring and get a collection of vegetables delivered (or available for pickup) every week or two. In general you don't get to pick and choose. You get what is being harvested that week.

    My wife and I subscribe to one of those. It is actually a pretty good deal considering how much vegetables we get over the course of the summer and fall, but not everyone can pay the lump sum once a year.

    1584:

    David L @ 1581:

    Our point was "back in the day" a 40 acre farm could exist. If you're in your 70s your father in law would likely have been born in the 1910s or 1920s. 40 acres then was a big deal. Especially given the size of tractors and such.

    Back to the vanishing family farm and government statistical collections. I have a strong suspicion that there are only a handful of farms country wide that are true "family" businesses. Most of them these days will be an LLC or similar and the owners getting a "paycheck" from this LLC. Which would make it hard to compare current stats with the stats of 50+ years ago.

    My point is that even with modern farm equipment, farming 40 acres is not a hobby.

    It might be a side hustle in addition to your day job, a small business even, but it ain't a "hobby". It's work.

    1585:

    RE: '... hard to compare current stats with the stats of 50+ years ago.'

    Agree. BTW - that pdf only shows 2020-2021 data, so can't use that either for any meaningful comparison. We also need to look at arable land.

    'Arable land worldwide has decreased by nearly a third since 1961.'

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/arable-land-by-country

    Greg - re: trees

    Good to hear!

    JohnS - re: Section 4, 25th Amendment

    Unable to perform presidential duties can mean he can try again later. Impeachment would mean barred from ever seeking re-election. How would the 2-term limit apply if he won but was forced to sit out the term? This sounds potentially messy.

    Or do you mean something else?

    1586:

    Pigeon [1558] noted: "Hoping this isn't educational advice to female ancestors on ovisuction"

    Heh. Yes, I'm old enough to know what that means.

    Pigeon: "I'd be highly inclined to regard books not as a source of knowledge which stands on its own"

    No, books are just a starting point. Their consensus tells me what is known to work and gives me an overall understanding of the problems and solutions. That provides the foundation to build on.

    Pigeon: "...which may be secondary to studying photographs of the kind of things people round the world actually build at the moment"

    Definitely. But the problem that I'm trying to solve is unpredictable and extreme weather that comes out of nowhere, ruins your crop, and then goes away. So the part of the problem that I want to work on is for sheltered cultivation that mostly escapes such disasters.

    Pigeon: "... not manufacturers' photographs, but ordinary people's snapshots of bits of random international Greggery."

    One of the things that interested me during my preliminary research was a Québec couple who built a smallish dug-into-the ground year-round greenhouse that they claim made them self-sufficient re. garden vegetables for an initial cost of C$10K and some labor. That was using off-the-shelf parts; with a larger market, the materials cost could probably be lower due to economies of scale. The "Greggery" you mention would be part of the scale up/scale down aspect of the project: if you can't afford the commercial stuff, how could you McGyver a functional alternative with cheaper materials?

    Moz [1560] wondered about my "set them up with greenhouses or equivalent": "Do you mean cold-houses?"

    In the broader sense, I mean a chamber that can have its temperature controlled within the range that allows crop plants to grow year-round by protecting them from excess cold or heat, from wind and hail and torrential rain, etc. etc. My goal in starting with books is to get a good handle on the complete list of problems and the range of solutions, then try to abstract the solutions (e.g., "blow air through the chamber to keep it cool") in ways that allow a range of solutions, from lo-tech (hire the children to wave blankets at the crop) to high-tech (computer controlled fans).

    Moz: "Also, the issue for the most part is not leafy greens and similar fast crops, it's staples like rice and wheat."

    Yeah, that's going to take some serious space. I can't think of a really good solution other than maybe some kind of semi-sheltered cultivation (shade blankets, solar-powered field-scale fans, etc.). I'm skeptical we could save a majority of the world's current population in a real crisis, but maybe we could save some in the meantime.

    The problem of surviving a widespread crop failure is another whole challenge: What's the optimal mix of plant species to produce an adequate diet in a limited amount of space? How can we turn that space into a highly efficient field? Etc.

    Moz: "Bulk calories that come from huge tracts of land processed as mechanically as possible."

    Two words: "Soylent Green". That also solves the population problem.

    1587:

    "Soylent Green". That also solves the population problem.

    Our global leadershit seem to agree. Expert opinion seems to be tending to a population of about 1B by 2100 (±1B), but a natural fall from ~10B to ~8B by then (WHO health-related data). For some reason the leadershit isn't talking about their plan for the other ~7B.

    Not really surprising given that their plan for mitigating the catastrophe to the point where even 1B is possible is "STFU and hope nothing too bad happens while I'm in power".

    1588:

    It might be a side hustle in addition to your day job, a small business even, but it ain't a "hobby". It's work.

    You never met my cousin. To him it WAS a hobby. There could only be a profit with some tortured accounting. And I know others.

    He was the total example of a "good ole boy". Hunter and farmer growing up. Dropped out of engineering school to be a Navy pilot. Then with Continental and UPS. (He once said that while flying only at night with UPS wasn't great, he never had to go back and tell a drunken box to shut up and sit down NOW.) My father often wondered if any of those first class passengers (this was the 60s/70s) knew their pilot was chawing tobaccee and spitting it as they flew from Houston to Paris.

    He retired to the back country of Idaho (think about that phrase) with his family and I lost touch with him and his family.

    1589:

    The cookbook "Tasty Dishes from Waste Items" by Aroona Reejhsinghani includes a recipe for prawn-shell curry.

    1590:

    Hoping this isn't educational advice to female ancestors on ovisuction

    A box without hinges, key or lid,
    Yet golden treasure inside is hid"

    Greenhouses
    My home one is a commercial lean-to, which prompted the manufacturers to go/get into "Conservatories" at inflated prices ....
    The small, unheated one on my plot is constructed almost entirely out of scrap & throw-aways, scrounged from "places" - IIRC I had to buy about half the transparent roof & the metal spikes for the uprights at the corners.
    As for half-burying a greenhouse, as mentioned ...
    You are in very good company

    1591:

    When we built our conservatory, I looked at the Cambridge University Bontanic Gardens and Kew to see how they ventilated them without power, so we installed five 9" square vents at low level as well as the opening top lights. It works, and it doesn't become like a furnace on hot, sunny, still days.

    However, while glass extends the growing season considerably, there is no way a plausible, ordinary, domestic installation can produce enough fresh vegetables for the winter, even in a mild one, because there simply isn't enough light. In order to do that, you would need (preferably) double glazing, (power-hungry) intense lighting, and a large installation.

    Of course, we eat a LOT of vegetables, and it's only at this time of year that I can produce more than we can eat in about 160 m^2 of growing area. However, with keeping vegetables and using the greenhouse for early salads, the totally dead period isn't only a few months - in mild winters! God help us if the North Atlantic drift fails.

    1592:

    However, while glass extends the growing season considerably, there is no way a plausible, ordinary, domestic installation can produce enough fresh vegetables for the winter, even in a mild one, because there simply isn't enough light.

    Keep in mind that, despite having harsher weather than you experience, most Canadian commenters live south of you so have appreciably longer winter days.

    1593:

    I agree that it's less of a problem than anywhere in the UK, but is still significant. Quebec's insolation at midwinter is less than double London's, and only 22% of what it is in midsummer.

    1594:

    SFReader @ 1585:

    JohnS - re: Section 4, 25th Amendment

    Unable to perform presidential duties can mean he can try again later. Impeachment would mean barred from ever seeking re-election. How would the 2-term limit apply if he won but was forced to sit out the term? This sounds potentially messy.

    Or do you mean something else?

    Just pointing out that there IS a provision among the amendments that would apply if Trump were convicted (and sentenced to prison) in New York State or Georgia and still won the election in 2024.1

    That's NOT what Congress had in mind when they included section 4 the amendment - they were thinking about Eisenhower's heart attack. They deliberately made it more difficult to remove an unwilling President than impeachment so it wouldn't be used as a back door alternative.

    And it's also why the Vice President becomes only "ACTING" President.

    Actually, Section 3 was about Eisenhower's heart attack, Section 4 is about "What if he'd had a stroke instead and was UNABLE to communicate a Section 3 notice?"

    Lots of IFs here - IF Trump were elected AND IF he were convicted by a state court AND IF he were sentenced to prison ... Section 4 provides a LEGAL framework for the Vice President to have continuity of government

    ... and YES, if it were invoked because a President was incarcerated, that person could resume the office IF his incarceration ended before the end of his/her term.

    It's not just "potentially messy", it's NUCKIN' FUTS we're even having to think about what to do if a convicted criminal wins the White House (or how to handle such a conviction AFTER someone is elected).

    We've actually been through this before. There is a somewhat of a precedent under Section 2.

    The office of Vice President became vacant when Spiro Agnew resigned to take a plea bargain in a bribery/kickback case from his time in Maryland, something completely obscured by the Watergate Scandal.

    Nixon nominated Gerald Ford to replace Agnew as VP; Ford in turn became President upon Nixon's resignation and nominated Nelson Rockefeller as his VP.

    To your other point ...

    The 2-term limit would apply no matter WHERE the President was while completing his term in office. That's a different Amendment entirely2.

    Although, I expect if Trump does manage to win a second term he will seek to abrogate the 22nd Amendment and remain in power after the end of his second term.

    I doubt he could get the 22nd Amendment repealed or have such repeal ratified, so he'd just have to break the law to remain in power, but there's already precedent that he'd willingly do so.

    I blame China for their ancient curse ... "May you live in interesting times!" indeed. 😕

    1 I think everyone is assuming that all Federal charges will be dropped if he wins the office and/or he will pardon himself. He cannot pardon himself from STATE convictions and the Governor of Georgia does not have pardon power ... don't know about New York State.

    2 Something the Congressional Republicans who rushed it through came to regret almost immediately, because Eisenhower certainly could have won a third ... and maybe even a fourth ... term.

    AND Reagan and maybe even the shrub - but that's more WHAT IF.

    1595:

    PS: Which means we also have to look closely & carefully at whoever Trump chooses as his running mate (assuming he gets the GQP nomination, which I think he will).

    1596:

    The Georgia State Board of Pardons and Paroles can certainly pardon Trump in Georgia. The board is appointed by the governor and approved by the legislature. Georgia has been a deeply Republican state for years and so the board will also be deeply Republican. Trump will be pardoned should he be convicted and the natural rationale is that it would be difficult to imprison him in Georgia prisons.

    1597:

    There will no necessity for a pardon in New York State. The charges against Trump do not usually carry a jail term. Trump is a first-time offender (if convicted) in a white color crime, so the penalty usually would be a fine.

    1598:

    I blame China for their ancient curse ... "May you live in interesting times!" indeed.

    not chinese

    eric frank russell short story, "u-turn"

    1599:

    "in a white color crime, so the penalty usually would be a fine."

    Well, he's kinda orange, but the point is valid. :-(

    1600:

    I blame China for their ancient curse ... "May you live in interesting times!" indeed. 😕

    Oddly enough, none of my Chinese friends have ever heard that. It appears to be falsely attributed.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times

    https://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/may-you-live-in-interesting-times.html

    1601:

    The Georgia State Board of Pardons and Paroles can certainly pardon Trump in Georgia.

    But only 5 years after the person has completed his/her sentence, which I doubt will help Trump very much. I saw this recently on MSNBC.

    1602:

    Re: 'My goal in starting with books is to get a good handle on the complete list of problems and the range of solutions ...'

    'Internet of Plants' - just saw this - it's a take on the Internet of Things.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s43586-023-00250-x#:~:text=Similarly%2C%20emerging%20plant%20physiology%20sensors,detecting%20stressors%20that%20reduce%20growth.

    A few thoughts about a new age of ag:

    a)If the ag issues/problems were framed as 'ideas/solutions for food in interplanetary travel' maybe more people might get interested enough to become citizen scientists. A new ag themed video game or three could help too.

    b)Basic grains (Wheat, rice, etc.) - I'm not a wheat fan - modern wheat has way more glutin* than wheat from even 100 years ago. It's also been bred to be much taller to accommodate super-sized threshers. Maybe it's time to reverse the direction of some of the changes we made to some of our food crops. Ditto rice - highly tampered with (to the point that it dies if not paired with the 'just-right' TM fertilizer) but fortunately a few Indian farmers managed to save some old varieties.

    The below is an 1989 article. Haven't a clue what it means apart from 'dwarf lines had a higher harvest potential' - way too science-speak for me.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0378429089900415

    'The grain yield and harvest index were generally higher in modern than in old varieties. Among the Isogenic lines, the dwarf lines had a greater harvest index than the tall lines. Grains per spikelet and per ear increased from old to modern varieties and from tall to dwarf lines. There was positive correlation between ear: stem ratio at anthesis and harvest index with different responses between sites and years.'

    c)Legumes & nuts - Personally I think these deserve more attention - better/higher protein content, more complex, more micronutrient-dense, etc. Quite a few can be processed into flours. The 2023 article below is open access.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357658635_The_Growing_Role_of_Nuts_and_Seeds_in_Human_Health

    Breads made with added legume flour also perform/taste better per this 2021 article.

    'Effects of Adding Legume Flours on the Rheological and Breadmaking Properties of Dough'

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8156759/

    d)Fast growth rate foods - Chia seeds grow super fast and can be stored for 4-5 years. Note: Chia seeds should be used/consumed wet - it absorbs 10X its volume in liquids and swells super fast. Good cardiovascular profile.

    https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/nutritionsource/food-features/chia-seeds/

    *Probably why so many more people are being diagnosed with wheat/glutin sensitivity: It's not in their heads, it's in their guts! We've passed the wheat-glutin safety threshold for too many people.

    e)High temp/rainfall - Rice needs high temps and grows in water, therefore a possible replacement for wheat/other cereals in fields in NorAm that are likely to experience more frequent flooding. The Chinese have carp growing in their rice paddies: great nutritional and land-use 2-for.

    f)Pets - Read a few years back that one of the headline making new invasive species in NorAm, the Asian carp, is now being used as an excellent cheap fish ingredient in cat food.

    I'm guessing that your reading of available lit is a start for identifying/listing all the known variables (even the so-called trivial ones). For bio-related stuff, I imagine that the list is going to be very, very long/messy. Good luck!

    1603:

    exregis @ 1596:

    The Georgia State Board of Pardons and Paroles can certainly pardon Trump in Georgia. The board is appointed by the governor and approved by the legislature. Georgia has been a deeply Republican state for years and so the board will also be deeply Republican. Trump will be pardoned should he be convicted and the natural rationale is that it would be difficult to imprison him in Georgia prisons.

    As I understand it the board in Georgia can parole him "after he has served an appropriate portion of his sentence", but he cannot be pardoned until he's served his complete sentence.

    I don't think the difficulty of imprisoning someone is a factor in it, but we'll just have to wait and see whether he's indicted or not and whether or not he's convicted at trial ...

    On the Federal side, Jack Smith is pushing for an early trial date - Jan 2, 2024 (Jan 6 is a Saturday) - in DC and is saying the trial can be completed before the Super Tuesday Primary.

    1604:

    SFR
    Well, all of my breads { Note ) are pretty high in Gluten - it's what makes the bread "elastic" & good to mould, knead & bake(!)
    "Chia" - utterly useless for this country, even with cold-adapted varieties - it apparently requires altitude - over 500m or better still 1000 - it obviously needs the enhance UV ... same as "opium" in fact, oh dear.
    A lot of Rice is grown in the Po valley in Italy - they are, surprise, surprise cocnetrating on cold or cooler-tolerant strains ....

    John S
    The lastest on DJT's upcoming trial looks ... interesting.

    Note: Breads: "White" - Hard White + Onion bread flour - will have to switch to including own fried onions - + White Spelt + ground Cumin & Caraway
    "Rye" - Light Rye + White Spelt - might switch to adding Wholemeal wheat to make it a 3-parter
    Focaccia - French "00" + Hard White + Liquidised Tomato in "water" component - contains layer of homemade Pesto + Olives
    White Rolls - Hard White + French "00" - effectively Pain Ordinaire
    Turmeric Bread - add Turmeric to mix, make up white-bread, with 10ml of ground Turmeric in it + fried onions, as above
    Pizza base - { In preparation RIGHT NOW } "000" Pizza flour + "00" French flour.
    ALL - made with Olive Oil + water & fresh-cut Rosemary Leaves in the mix.
    As always with these things, finding the supplier of the very best ingredients you can find really matters.

    1605:

    The reliability of wheat crops in the UK increased drastically with the introduction of short staple varieties - basically, they don't flatten in strong winds and heavy rain to the same extent, though there is a secondary factor in that they put less energy into producing the stems. But they are no use for thatching. This happened only about 50 years ago.

    Legume flours are widely used in India. Yes. I agree that we should eat more of them in the west - we used to, a good many centuries back. Vicia faba, Pisum sativum, Phaseolus vulgaris and coccinea all crop well (to maturity) in the UK, as do some lesser ones like Medicago sativa.

    Both lactose and gluten tolerance are the recent mutations, which occur in only some populations - the base H. sapiens is intolerant to both. It depends very much on your ancestry - 'Europeans' are descended from many thousands of farmers and herders, but not all humans are.

    1606:

    he cannot be pardoned until he's served his complete sentence.

    What would it take to change that, and is Georgia Republican enough?

    1607:

    Re: 'But they are no use for thatching.'

    I'm guessing that the number of Brits needing grain greatly outnumbers the number needing to rethatch.

    Greg & EC:

    Gluten for now is the only well-documented wheat component. A few other possible components (like fructan) are being looked at. Wheat like most foods contains more than one compound. Plus there are a slew of wheat varieties, therefore differences in their biochem make-up therefore each variety should be tested separately*.

    Add to that the variation in human genetics re: tolerance/digestibility of food compounds. For example: fructans occur in both onions and wheat -- I'm fine eating onion but my gut sometimes seizes up after I eat 100% wheat breads.

    I also read labels esp. for so-called 'mixed grains' because some so-called mixed grain breads have next to no other grain apart from wheat(s). Anyways, I've decided that it's safest to limit any 'bread' to no more than 1 serving per day.

    Wheat varieties vary by country - the most commonly used/sold wheat varieties in Europe are not the same as those sold in NorAm (higher in both protein and gluten than wheats used in UK/European).

    For me, hard wheat is worst and because it seems to be used in just about everything 'breaded' on this side of the pond (because it adheres so well - very gluey), my diet now includes very few processed foods. (Hmmm ... hard wheat flour would probably be great for papier mache.)

    https://www.science.org/content/article/what-s-really-behind-gluten-sensitivity

    *Haven't seen any articles that specifically looked at different wheat varieties which may be one of the reasons the results are all over the place. Ditto additives commonly/widely used alongside wheat, e.g., sodium acid pyrophosphate which is used in many/most mass produced breads sold in major grocery stores. This additive is also used as a coating on the potatoes in Mac fries in NorAm. My gut reacts as badly to Mac fries as to store bought sliced white bread. (These researchers need to come up with a better, more detailed study design.)

    1608:

    Ouch! That sounds horrible — what I missed most at the end of my second month in China was bread, closely followed by coffee with lots of milk. And proper cheese (ie. not processed crap).

    I regularly bake bread with hard whole wheat flour — I've only recently got some all-purpose flour to begin experimenting with muffins and gingerbread. I eat 2-3 loaves a week, and drink 4-6 bags of milk. I'm really lucky I'm neither lactose nor gluten intolerant!

    1609:

    I ran across this in a YouTube video ... interactive charts showing migration into and out of the States of the United States.

    TheUpshot Where We Came From and Where We Went, State by State

    Fer instance ...

    54% of Californians were born there, 28% were born outside the U.S., with the largest in-migration coming from the midwest & other western states (4% each);
    of those born in California, 75% stayed there, 12% moved to other western states, 8% moved to the south, 3% to the midwest & 2% to the northeastern U.S.

    Not suggesting it has any deep meaning, only that if you live here in the U.S. or have friends & relatives living here, you might find it amusing, or perhaps even informative. I chose California because it was the first chart that came up. I think California is the most populous state, so it makes sense to start with it.

    It's California, Florida & Nevada and appears to be alphabetical from there.

    1610:

    Robert Prior @ 1606:

    "he cannot be pardoned until he's served his complete sentence."

    What would it take to change that, and is Georgia Republican enough?

    I guess the Legislature could change the law if they wanted to ... I don't know if the GQP has a sufficient majority in the Legislature or IF they would want to do it even if they do.

    What the law SAYS is pretty easy to figure out; what the courts & politicians will actually DO with them, not so much.

    When I write about American politics I'm covering fairly broad themes - specific details can sometimes elude me.

    1611:

    SFReader @ 1607:

    Re: 'But they are no use for thatching.'

    I'm guessing that the number of Brits needing grain greatly outnumbers the number needing to rethatch.

    Hmmmmm? Sounds like there might be a niche market for growing the old style wheat whose stems ARE good for thatching? Maybe something a hobby farm could plant? 😏

    1612:

    Wheat varieties (etc)
    One of the really good suppliers { Wessex Mill - look them up } - for those grains they mill themseleves - specify not only whic varieties of wheat they use, but the farm(s) it came from.
    If we are talking about environmental costs, a.k.a. "food-miles" - well, Oxfordshire to Essex/London is a lot better than wheat from Canada, shipped over to here, for a start.

    Thatching
    You can also use Reeds for thatching - especially around the wetlands of the East coast.

    1613:

    modern wheat has way more glutin* than wheat from even 100 years ago. It's also been bred to be much taller to accommodate super-sized threshers.

    Are you sure? I have a fuzzy memory of it actually being bred shorter to loose less in rains due to falling over when near maturity.

    1614:

    Read a few years back that one of the headline making new invasive species in NorAm, the Asian carp, is now being used as an excellent cheap fish ingredient in cat food.

    Yes. But they are devestating all the local fish in the North American basin drained by the Mississippi River. And due to a terrible canal in Chicago there's a multi-billion $$ fight to keep them out of the Great Lakes.

    1615:

    "Hmmm ... hard wheat flour would probably be great for papier mache."

    It does - even soft wheat flour does. I use it to make the paper pots I start my climbing beans in.

    The effects of the genetics I mentioned do not just include coeliac disease, but a common sensitivity to gluten, which often develops as people get older. I have a son in law and a friend with that. It's a pain (literally) for people in the west, and the solution is precisely what you do.

    I am intolerant of high levels of salt and meat fat, which caused me serious trouble when I took a work trip to Texas, but eat essentially no highly processed foods.

    To other posters: reeds are better for thatching, but there are limited sources, given the drainage of the fens and most other such areas. This may change when another foot of sea-level rise makes that drainage economocally infeasible. Yes, some long staple wheat is grown as a dual-purpose crop, but you can't use a combine harvester, and have to use older equipment.

    1616:

    »On the Federal side, Jack Smith is pushing for an early trial date - Jan 2, 2024 (Jan 6 is a Saturday) - in DC and is saying the trial can be completed before the Super Tuesday Primary.«

    I have not yet seen the judge's final version of the protection order, but it seemed pretty obvious to me, that the prosection's proposed text was written to make it unattractive to Trumpolini to drag the case out.

    If he goes to jail for running his mouth, his team is guaranteed to try to rush the case much sooner than jan 2nd.

    If he wants to avoid jail, he has to behave himself in public for 4+ months, and I cant imagine he will not want to shorten his handicap on the campaign trail.

    So to me "we can be ready as early as jan 2nd" souns like raw bait, to make Trump insist the trial happen sooner, thereby handicapping his own lawyers and automatically forfeiting appeals based on "a rushed trial" and "ineffective counsel".

    1617:

    I was under the impression that reeds for thatching these days mostly came from beds that are at least loosely "farmed" in some vague sense of the word, rather than just relying on scarfing up purely wild ones (and are consequently of more consistent quality), and at least partly because of legislation protecting wetlands; this being possible because there are so few thatched houses these days, and those that do still exist are nearly all listed so the owners have no choice but to cough up whatever it takes to get them re-thatched every so often. So the production is artificially managed enough to sidestep the consequences of reduced wild supply given the little that is actually needed these days.

    1618:

    Re: '... actually being bred shorter to loose less in rains'

    Maybe the 'shorter' depends on how far back you're comparing to, in which country. :)

    Unfortunately I can't find 'wheat' height-change-over-the-years data. Durum was the wheat I was thinking of - although it's mostly associated with/used for pasta, it's increasingly used in breads. Based on the article below, durum is pretty finicky re: climate. (Wonder whether its nutritional profile changes too based on weather.)

    'Modelling the growth, development and yield of Triticum durum Desf under the changes of climatic conditions in north-eastern Europe'

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-01273-8

    https://www.world-grain.com/articles/8777-global-durum-wheat-use-trending-upward

    Did find an article though about how a newly found gene for shortness may help improve yield. Interesting stuff - also mentions a wheat gene atlas.

    https://www.agri-tech-e.co.uk/shorter-wheat-gene-offers-benefits-over-green-revolution-varieties/#:~:text=Reduced%20height%20genes%20have%20increased,stems%20also%20improve%20standing%20ability.

    I do like bread but some of the ingredients/components don't like me. One of the few cheats that I've tried that worked was a potato bread - tasty and I can tolerate a larger portion than regular wheat bread. Also once tried substituting oats for some of the wheat flour - meh for sandwiches.

    1619:

    Norway Maple: Coppered nails? No idea if this works (might need a lot of them) but I have heard of it being done.

    1621:

    Re: Borlaug

    Yeah, Penn was right: amazing scientific and humanitarian contribution and I'd never have guessed his name.

    Thanks!

    1622:

    Not on the tip of my tounge. I had to do a search to find him. And I only knew about his story and name from the PBS documentary on him that I caught a year or so ago.

    And feelings about his contributions to food are viewed with mixed feelings. Solving world hunger by requiring industrial farming may be a long term loose. Refer to the earlier comments.

    1623:

    That is probably true, and I was referring to the UK in (I think) the 1960s. We lost a LOT of our wheat crop (on average) to wind and rain before that, and very little afterwards. Countries with less summer wind and rain will have been less affected. I have a personal theory that is one of the reasons that wheat was a minority crop in Britain until a few centuries back (the main cereals were barley, oats and sometimes rye).

    Durum has been a specialist or local wheat, and the dominating wheat has been bread wheat, for many millennia. I don't know much about its recent history.

    1624:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/13/keir-starmer-gender-politics-labour

    It's never good when TERFs start celebrating.

    Am I right to think this means UK Labour are going to start mandatory genital checks in the high street (and primary schools)? But mostly I can't wait for the official gender presentation rules to come out. I really, really want Labour to lead with a ban on women wearing trousers. Matched by the Conservatives banning men from wearing skirts (not defined so as to exclude kilts, we all know that scots men are really women in disguise. Or is it the other way round? I'm so... gender confused)

    I'm also pedantically amused that once again the nutcases have chosen a weirdly appropriate label. As with "climate deniers" (there is no climate, only weather!) we have "gender critical" ("you are doing your gender wrong!") 🙄

    1626:

    As with "climate deniers" (there is no climate, only weather!)...

    I have to disagree. Weather is what's happening in the short term - today (103° F here in Portland, Oregon - broke the old record high for the day by 2°), tomorrow, or next week. Climate is what's happening over the long term - decades or more - such as what we're likely to encounter 50 years from now.

    1627:

    I have to disagree.

    with the climate deniers? good job

    afaict they call themselves climate skeptics these days, as "deniers" evokes holocaust denial, which is unfashionable

    i think they tend to acknowledge global warming, but deny that it's due to co2, thass just a correlation/causation issue apparently

    1628:

    i think they tend to acknowledge global warming, but deny that it's due to co2, thass just a correlation/causation issue apparently

    The more insidious form of denialism I've seen in the last few years is a well-off person saying that climate change is only a problem for the poor. They'll be able to survive it due to their wealth, so they have no need to change their lifestyles.

    I'll admit I haven't figured out a comeback zinger for that yet. I don't think "You be you Ozymandias," has quite the right ring to it. Got to keep thinking about it.

    1630:

    I'll admit I haven't figured out a comeback zinger for that yet.

    In their mind they can't comprehend (or maybe admit to others) that they money can't buy the needed AC and power and gasoline and .... To them it's a first order problem that their money can fix. They don't want to even think about what might happen if the things they pay for now become 1000 times more expensive. Or available at all. Due to the power plants not running due to no cooling water. Or the lake behind the dam has dried up. Or .....

    They just can't comprehend the grocery store not having ANY food. Or electricity to keep the food from spoiling. Or... They just can't comprehend a world where their money has no use in buying the basics of survival.

    Jim Baker has some protein powder he will sell them. (I religious nut case USA reference who is still on TV conning the clueless out of their money.)

    1631:

    John S
    Throw enough mud at the wall, & SOME of it will stick - seems to be the policy.
    I do hope it works - what do USA-ians think is the prospect of at least one of these securing a conviction, preferably before Nov 2024?

    1632:

    The Register has the best coverage of that story. The very best! The IT angle.

    https://www.theregister.com/2023/08/15/georgia_trump_indictment_data_theft/

    1633:

    The more insidious form of denialism I've seen in the last few years is a well-off person saying that climate change is only a problem for the poor... I'll admit I haven't figured out a comeback zinger for that yet.

    First word which comes to mind is "guillotine".

    1634:

    I don't think "You be you Ozymandias," has quite the right ring to it.

    a little on the erudite side perhaps, depending on ur malthusiastic interlocutors

    problem with the right and anthropic global warming is if it were true, it would demand a collective response, and that would be communism, so it can't be true

    1635:

    I don't think "You be you Ozymandias," has quite the right ring to it.

    It absolutely does not.

    Ramses II (aka Ozymandias) lived out his life in luxury, and was never bothered by any hardship New Kingdom might have suffered during his reign. So "You be you Ozymandias" if anything, reinforces their self-assurance.

    1636:

    Ozymandias:

    Not so - Ramses / Ozymandias might have lived in luxury, but the ending, afterwards, was the same:

    ... Nothing beside remains.
    Round the ruin of that colossal wreck, boundless & bare
    The lose & level sands, stretch ... far away.

    1637:

    I second that thought.

    1638:

    (rolls eyes) Talk about the Keystone Coup (for non-USans, look up Keystone Kops).

    1639:

    Not so - Ramses / Ozymandias might have lived in luxury, but the ending, afterwards, was the same

    Greg, take another look at Heteromeles' post:

    They'll be able to survive it due to their wealth, so they have no need to change their lifestyles.

    What makes you think they give a rat's ass about "afterwards"? Après moi, le déluge

    1640:

    Greg Tingey @ 1631:

    John S
    Throw enough mud at the wall, & SOME of it will stick - seems to be the policy.
    I do hope it works - what do USA-ians think is the prospect of at least one of these securing a conviction, preferably before Nov 2024?

    I don't think that's what's happening in Georgia. It was a wide ranging conspiracy to steal the election in Georgia (and other states), so under Georgia's RICO law it requires a wide ranging indictment.

    I found this in the NY Times this morning that breaks it down into "four core schemes" of an overall "plan" which is what makes it RICO under Georgia Law:

    Why the Fani Willis Prosecution of Donald Trump Is Indispensable

    I know y'all don't like the NY Times because you have trouble linking to it, but I have a subscription and this is supposed to be a "gift" link that's accessible anywhere. Let me know if it gives you any trouble.

    Plan: Steal Georgia's Electoral Vote (as part of a larger conspiracy to overturn the results of the election nationwide).
         • Pressure government officials to give Georgia's Electoral Vote to Trump even though he lost the election in Georgia
         • Organizing False Electors in Georgia
         • Unlawfully accessing voting machines in Coffee County GA
         • Obstruction & cover-up - false documents, false statements to investigators & perjury

    I don't hold much hope for any of the trials being completed before the election. The DC Federal trial looks like it might go first & have been concluded, but if he's convicted there it will certainly still be under appeal.

    I heard one commenter on a news segment say the Georgia trial could take a year or more to complete ... and the Georgia trial will have to be scheduled around his already existing trial dates - IIRC, this October for NY State's charges, Jan 2, 2024 (requested start date) for the DC conspiracy and May 2024 for the Mar-a-Lago documents trial.

    The Georgia trial might not even get going before election day.

    1641:

    I remember watching and enjoying Keystone Kops when I was a preteen. I may have preferred Buster Keaton. Anyway, thanks for the reminder. Very apt.

    1642:

    I take it as more "he broke an awful lot of laws, and the legal system doesn't accept the concept of bigger crimes elsewhere negating smaller ones here".

    If you must take a politicised view, it's a belt, braces, suspenders, straps, ties, elastic pants and one hand holding them up approach to keeping US democracy's pants on. The far right surely can't have corrupted everything, so if the legal system gets enough convictions across enough jurisdictions surely one will land him in jail? Luckily he's cooperating by breaking laws in a lot of jurisdictions...

    1643:

    (rolls eyes) Talk about the Keystone Coup (for non-USans, look up Keystone Kops).

    As someone from South America noted, it's a good thing that North Americans are fracking amateurs when it comes to coups. If we'd been Argentina or Bolivia El Jefe Trump would be in charge right now.

    Hopefully we'll remain amateurs at this practice...

    1644:

    I know y'all don't like the NY Times because you have trouble linking to it

    definitely not the only reason

    1645:

    North Americans are fracking amateurs when it comes to coups.

    Nah, you have real experts available who have a great deal of practice. They're not always successful, admittedly, but rarely as shit as the recent US attempt.

    The idiots did not use those experts*. Which is an important part of their whole schtick. But it means they get to say "a bunch of you died and we didn't get want we wanted. It's all someone else's fault".

    If it was somewhere else there's a pretty good chance the US would have offered military assistance to at least one side. Given the size of the economy the US may well have decided to impose democracy and freedom while looting the place.

    (* the experts may have refused if they were asked, I definitely hope they would have)

    1646:

    North Americans are fracking amateurs when it comes to coups.

    More that they are used to staging them somewhere else…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change

    1648:

    Robert Prior [1600] noted about the nominally Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times!": "Oddly enough, none of my Chinese friends have ever heard that. It appears to be falsely attributed."

    I can confirm that (based on discussions with a few dozen friends and colleagues born and living in China).

    That being said, all my Chinese friends and colleagues, and particularly those who survived the toxic chaos under Mao, carry a deep fear of social chaos bordering on PTSD and a deep longing for stability. I used to say you could describe China's history (simplistically and thus inaccurately) as "200 years of stability and remarkable cultural creativity followed by 200 years of chaos". One of my Chinese colleagues confirmed this in a book he's just finishing writing. And that gives the "interesting times" statement a lot of emotional resonance, even if it doesn't exist as a formal Chinese idiom.

    1649:

    Vastly unrelated to anything else in the thread, but possibly interesting,

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41928-023-00985-1.epdf

    Substantial improvements in computing energy efficiency, by up to ten orders of magnitude, will be required to solve major computing problems — such as planetary-scale weather modelling, real-time, brain-scale modelling and human evolutionary simulation — by the end of this century.

    1650:

    And that gives the "interesting times" statement a lot of emotional resonance, even if it doesn't exist as a formal Chinese idiom.

    I think it says more about what we consider "interesting" in history stories. Why are the Tang less interesting than the Warring States? Is it because we are taught that military history is the only real history? (I know when I was young most history in school seemed to be tales of war and conquest, but that might be a function of what young me found interesting rather than what we actually studied.)

    I mean, consider the Tang. Stability, increasing prosperity for nearly everyone (not just the elite), technological innovation, artistic movements, even the active seeking of newness and foreign ideas. I find it fascinating.

    Dragging this back to SF, I quite liked Stirling's Nantucket series. There was a decent speculative novel in there, padded out by two books worth of blow-by-blow fighting scenes.

    1651:

    as "200 years of stability and remarkable cultural creativity followed by 200 years of chaos"

    None of the history classes I had in the US covered all these Chinese wars. Or peace for that matter.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_by_death_toll

    1652:

    Moz @ 1642:

    The far right surely can't have corrupted everything, ...

    I hope not, but some times I do wonder.

    1653:

    None of the history classes I had in the US covered all these Chinese wars.

    taiping rebellion especially, utter madness

    1654:

    taiping rebellion especially, utter madness

    Mumble mumble drug war. Mumble mumble opiates. Mumble mumble Christian fanatic nutjobs. Mumble mumble secession by the hard right. Mumble mumble international intervention to push drugs on a country against their wishes. Mumble mumble civil war...

    Nah, nothing here is relevant to American students.

    AND, I hasten to add, modern-day China has no reason whatsoever to move fentanyl into the US, nor to foment political polarization in the US, nor to stir up religious nutjobs in the US. How dare they do such things!

    (/slight sarcasm, of course).

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