Thomas Jørgensen

Thomas Jørgensen

  • Commented on The internet of decay
    Market segmentation, then regulation. Someone is going to go to the effort of writing firmware for most of the functionalities you want networked to "Proven Correctness" standards. ... Uhm. I think I have a startup idea now. Exuse me while...
  • Commented on Some notes on the worst-case scenario
    The biggest thing is that renewable energy run for energy production rather than for warm fuzzies is about locality, locality and locality. The efficiency of long distance power transmission is a great deal better than that of batteries. If you...
  • Commented on Policy change: future US visits
    It's mystery cult social engineering as a mass communication tool - Shodan obfuscates their points so that understanding them incurs a sunk cost of effort, which makes recipients that expended that effort take them somewhat more seriously. That or just...
  • Commented on Policy change: future US visits
    Reading that, the bay has.. extremely impressive mechanisms for oxygen transport into the deep waters. This isn't the baltic. I'm kind of boggled it's even possible to overload them, but then I looked at just how many people live next...
  • Commented on Policy change: future US visits
    Ten billion is perfectly managable for the long haul. Far more so than the sort of chaos a gigadeaths would imply. People do not go quietly into the night - if there really is a plan to engineer famines, that's...
  • Commented on Policy change: future US visits
    .. Iron fertilization is only a sensible move in the high ocean low productivity zones. Anoxia is a product of low mixing of the deep waters, excessive nutrient runoff from agriculture and insufficient filterfeeders. All of those are attackable problems,...
  • Commented on Policy change: future US visits
    That is just wrong as a matter of fact - even in california, which has absurdly expensive electricity and very cheap gasoline, the savings on fuel cost are very high - roughly a factor of four. - Now, airlines are...
  • Commented on Policy change: future US visits
    It can, and will, pop very abruptly through technical obsolescence. The personal electronics industry is pouring billions into better batteries every year. From the perspective of manufacture and logistics, then given sufficiently good batteries electric automotion is strictly better than...
  • Commented on And the Rabid Nazi Raccoons shall inherit the Earth
    RE: Low weight reactors for space use, and high performance drives.. You can have both. May blow up spectacularly, but there is this very neat paper design if you can get people to sign off on grinding a few dozen...
  • Commented on "You're only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!" 2017 continued.
    Gotta agree with the "Too complicated, Big hammer" school of testing. But that's mostly because I'd never buy gold with the intent of leaving it in bar form anyway. It's a useful - and beautiful - material, and I don't...
  • Commented on And the Rabid Nazi Raccoons shall inherit the Earth
    ... I'm thinking in terms of personally surviving the next millennium. And your plan sucks. It sucks in terms of descendant survival too - existence is not an unconditional good. If your plan for the future involves your children and...
  • Commented on And the Rabid Nazi Raccoons shall inherit the Earth
    No, no. What you want is a place with stable geology, a coastline consisting of cliffs, and navigable water. And either a solid solar resource or reactors. Black Flag City, aka, Fata Morgana, the City of Mirrors and stone. There's...
  • Commented on And the Rabid Nazi Raccoons shall inherit the Earth
    The lot of you are not being nearly bloody-minded enough. If black-flag regions and mass migrations happen, you set up a micro-climate in the equatorial deserts with mirrors-shades, solar cells and evaporators - Ain't nobody going to bother your industrial...
  • Commented on "You're only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!" 2017 continued.
    You're committing enumeration. It's a common fallacy - human intuition fails very badly with very small and very large numbers, which means you will nearly always overestimate the cost or impact of something if you split the description of it...
  • Commented on "You're only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!" 2017 continued.
    .. Which is down to their plan to substitute tourist income for their declining oil revenue. which.. Okay, on the one hand, I can see why they want to do that. On the other.. hand.. The island of Lesbos has...
  • Commented on "You're only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!" 2017 continued.
    Or use it industrially, of course. It has uses....
  • Commented on "You're only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!" 2017 continued.
    This is true for aluminum, and for some designs, but there are steel smelters that are currently run entirely on off-peak power due to cost of electricity savings, so running them only in the day isn't a problem. Arc furnace...
  • Commented on "You're only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!" 2017 continued.
    Low-probability events are one thing - it can be perfectly rational to just go "Preparing for all of them is going to cost more than just doing damage control after the fact on the ones that actually happen". It's failing...
  • Commented on "You're only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!" 2017 continued.
    Steel production per metric tonne via electricity: 440 kwh. (the mines are often as not electric anyway, because it saves on ventilation) Cost of solar electric in a greater than 2000 wh/m2 insulation location (equatorial desert), what, 5 cents? so.....
  • Commented on "You're only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!" 2017 continued.
    Somewhat. In the sense that I do a google sweep every six months on whats happening with a list of technologies, including desal. The middle east is doing *some* desal. The more functional parts. But.. they could be having an...
  • Commented on "You're only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!" 2017 continued.
    Eh, the first part of this strategy - uncoupling portable water from rainfall via desalination - is so blatantly profitable today that it kind of makes me loose faith in capitalism it isn't happening on a much larger scale already....
  • Commented on "You're only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!" 2017 continued.
    Greenhouses and hydroponics are very, very productive, and desalination is cheap is how. Also, there are brute force options for producing calories in emergencies - It is for example nearly trivial to synthesize food-grade sugar from cellulose in bulk....
  • Commented on "You're only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!" 2017 continued.
    Epistemology is hard. We're currently failing really hard at dealing with the information revolution and how it permits the shaping of world views. In particular, people have stopped paying for accurate information sources, and instead are consuming whatever someone wants...
  • Commented on "You're only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!" 2017 continued.
    It doesn't help that at least some voices in the environmental movement has this weird pastoralist / austerity / back - to - the land narrative going. *I'd* sooner die than try and live by agriculture without mechanization. But that's...
  • Commented on "You're only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!" 2017 continued.
    The acceptable false positive rate depends on the base probability of the thing you are testing for, the availability of further tests to verify, and the consequences of both missing the problem and of seeing a problem where there isn't...
  • Commented on "You're only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!" 2017 continued.
    Something like half the population has nodules in the thyroid. A thin-needle biopsy is has a false positive rate of up to 8% So the upper bound on how fucked this could get is that 4 % of the screened...
  • Commented on "You're only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!" 2017 continued.
    .. Scary high? If I could put decent numbers on it, I'd not be asking for a double blind. The limit to how bad it could get is mainly the accuracy of a biopsy test, but.. those aren't really satisfactorily...
  • Commented on "You're only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!" 2017 continued.
    No, they have something to do with it. They're fear-driven misdiagnosis. Thyroid cancer is never screened for. You check for it if a patient has a bunch of symptoms of thyroid failure, never without because the rate of false positives...
  • Commented on Things Can Only Get Better! (Part 1)
    ... If you exclude heating you die. If you exclude the energy needs of industry and commerce, you starve, then die. I want a zero carbon grid that is compatible with a modern society. That means it is necessary to...
  • Commented on Things Can Only Get Better! (Part 1)
    Germany solar power generation july 2016: 5.37 Twh. December of that year: 0.86 That's a dropoff of x6. And this december was very mild, as winters go. 2013 had the same july production.. but january of that year saw solar...
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