danieldwilliam

danieldwilliam

  • Commented on Unforeseen Consequences and that 1929 vibe
    BitCoin is a bit of a puzzler and every time I come across any serious discussion of it it makes me starting thinking about what "money" is. I tend to view that BitCoin is a Ponzi scheme. However, if it...
  • Commented on Trapped in the wrong trouser-leg of time
    There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch was a favourite saying and a book by Milton Freidman, the 1976 winner of the Nobel prize for economics....
  • Commented on Trapped in the wrong trouser-leg of time
    I think you are underestimating the current performance of already existing batteries and the many other forms of storage available. I think also you need to factor in offshore wind turbines. There are currently about half a dozen 6MW *floating*...
  • Commented on Help Wanted at the Climate Policy Sausage Factory
    There is apparently US Federal funding to research kelp farming with robots. http://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/renewables/robotic-kelp-farms-promise-an-ocean-full-of-carbon-neutral-low-cost-energy...
  • Commented on Help Wanted at the Climate Policy Sausage Factory
    That article draws heavily on this piece by Tony Seba. https://www.rethinkx.com/transportation/...
  • Commented on Help Wanted at the Climate Policy Sausage Factory
    I think there is something around R&D and in particular stranded assets. Energy technology is developing pretty rapidly. The technology is changing faster than the life-cycle of the assets that are (or used) to be built. Costs are falling but...
  • Commented on Crying fire in a crowded theatre for pleasure and profit
    I wonder about the Great Panic of AD 33 https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/research/panics/ancient-panics/financial-panic-of-33ad/...
  • Commented on Crying fire in a crowded theatre for pleasure and profit
    Edison and the elephant that he used to influence opinion in favour of his electricity genertors. Baby milk manufacturers. The tobacco industry? The use of anti-German propaganda by the US temperance movement after the Great War. Payment Protection Insurance....
  • Commented on Crying fire in a crowded theatre for pleasure and profit
    So we're looking for things that either A) influence public opinion so that Option A is chosen over Option B and you happen to be long Option A or B) create a panic or a shortage when you happen to...
  • Commented on Catching Up
    I wonder whether Corybn would want to bring down May's government in the near future or whether he thinks it would be better to let them take a battering in office for 2-3 years. I'm unsure if he, personally, actually...
  • Commented on Catching Up
    Which is a majority of 61 in England. Also EVEL is not quite the barrier it appears. For starters it's only a House of Commons standing order and secondly it only give English MP's a negative veto - they can...
  • Commented on Catching Up
    The new proposed constituency boundaries are supposed to roughly equalise the size of constituencies to within +/- 5% and with fewer exceptions for geographical and community boundaries. Which is not crazy. There are two practical concerns with the proposals. The...
  • Commented on Catching Up
    There is quite a variation in turnout by constitutency. http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout15.htm 2015 figures range from East Dunbartonshire at 81.93% to Stoke on Trent at 51.26....
  • Commented on Catching Up
    It is a tenet of the UK constitution that the Queen does not have personal political opinions. Even asking the question would be approaching a constitutional crisis. (See Charles and his letters.)...
  • Commented on Catching Up
    I was talking to my daughter about this before the election. She's in first year at uni. Lots and lots of effort to get students to register and who knew that "the kids" would be all over online registration and...
  • Commented on Catching Up
    It's a bit of mess. As Jacob Rees-Mogg might say, a bit of shambles. I think the best outcome likely is a series of small, containable constitutional crises arriving all at once. The DUP being deployed to vote on English...
  • Commented on The World of Tomorrow
    I have an Unmanned Warrior t-shirt....
  • Commented on The World of Tomorrow
    When I first heard about vertical farming I was pretty excited about it and read up on it a bit. In terms of its use in urban environments I think the economics struggle a bit. The premium for the land...
  • Commented on The World of Tomorrow
    I think by the time we get to 2050 China will have completed its move through being a middle-income country to being a rich country (or it won't have which will be interesting in different ways). I expect the Indians...
  • Commented on The World of Tomorrow
    On the politics front I think there is a question about the relationship between liberalism and democracy and long term economic performance. Is there a postive correlation between liberal / social democracies with good institutions and economic growth? If so,which...
  • Commented on The World of Tomorrow
    I think it's the price that's the issue. Self-sufficient at $150 a barrel is different from self-sufficient at $45 a barrel....
  • Commented on The World of Tomorrow
    That's one of the implications of the changing security situation I mentioned. I think it's one of the big specifics but it also affects the EU and Russia and the relationship of the EU and USA....
  • Commented on The World of Tomorrow
    I think there are potentially two interesting effects coming out of a move to renewables. The first is that if renewables succeed in displacing fossil fuel generation it will be by being cheaper. Renewables tend to be capital intensive and...
  • Commented on The sudden eruption of news
    I wonder if Corbyn can whip his own MP's to vote for a general election. I think the driver behind this is probably in part the risk of the election expenses scandal costing the Tories their majority. I wonder if...
  • Commented on The End of the British nuclear deterrent?
    Yeah - I see how "It was somewhere within a 100 clicks of here, some time ago, probably" would be less than helpful. Thanks...
  • Commented on The End of the British nuclear deterrent?
    The overall effort might be the same regardless of "cost" but cost reflects the relative scarcity of the inputs and by extension the other uses they could be put to which seems like a relevant factor?...
  • Commented on The End of the British nuclear deterrent?
    Would the detection accuracy be enough that one could narrow down a search area sufficiently to go and find the sub using more conventional means?...
  • Commented on Some notes on the worst-case scenario
    The bubble in the carbon bubble is the valuation of the oil and gas and coal mining companies. Most of their financial value are the future sales price of reserves of hydrocarbons that are not scheduled to be extracted for...
  • Commented on Some notes on the worst-case scenario
    This is entirely true. The comparison with the UK wholesale market was more as a reference point to a mature, reasonably liberal and open energy market. I'm not suggesting that because solar PV is being sold at $30/ MWH in...
  • Commented on Some notes on the worst-case scenario
    The cheapest solar PV industrial project to date sold its power output for about $29.90 per MWH for an 800 MW expansion to an existing solar PV array in Dubai. For comparison purposes day ahead baseload in the UK was...
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