Back to: Attention Conservation Notice | Forward to: How to get a signed copy of The Delirium Brief

Crying fire in a crowded theatre for pleasure and profit

Hi: I'm back. And a regular commenter asked me an interesting question anent the state of current US/UK politics: how much money can you make by crying fire in a crowded theatre?

Note that "crowded theatre" and "crying fire" are not to be taken literally; rather, it's a question about how much money you can make by manipulating social media to drive public opinion.

I'm going to start with the money markets: hedge funds bet big on Brexit, because they predicted that in event of a "leave" vote going through, shares in the FTSE 100 would underperform by 20%: so they shorted the entire market. However, it's a bet that, by and large, they lost money on. Rather than the FTSE 100 dropping 20%, Sterling dropped 20% and the shares continued to trade at much the same level (in the now-debased currency). Oops. Notably, billionaire Peter Hargreaves, who donated £3.2M to the Leave campaign, managed to lose on the order of £400M (warning: DM over-simplification alert—the market didn't tank, his portfolio lost value). Still, as bets go, it's a good if obvious example of crying fire in a crowded theatre for pleasure and profit: put £3.2M into sending 15 million letters to voters urging them to vote one way, aiming to profit to the tune of hundreds of millions.

Another fairly obvious example is the investment by the current Russian leadership in cyberwar ops against the perceived-as-more-competent candidate in the last US presidential election. Regardless of her other characteristics, Clinton was experienced in foreign affairs and no friend of Russia's. Russia today is primarily an oil and gas exporter, with the world's second largest (official) reserves after Saudi Arabia, and the current leadership can't help but be aware that they're vulnerable to some of the same factors that brought down the USSR —notably vulnerability to externally induced commodity price fluctuations. Clinton could have continued the transition to renewables that the Obama administration began, and applied the decreased US dependency on fossil fuel as an economic weapon against Russia (by depressing global oil prices): she had to be defeated at all costs. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is full of fossil fuel connections. Oil, gas, and coal companies contributed heavily to Trump's campaign, to his inauguration, and in federal lobbying since then, with predictable results.

Anyway, those are the two big recent examples; investors pushing Brexit propaganda not because they think leaving the EU would be good for the UK but in the pursuit of short-term profit: and big fossil fuel interests (national-level actors like Russia/Gazprom and corporate actors like Koch Industries) seeking a fossil-fuel-friendly policy environment by buying targeted political campaigning and deploying cyberwar techniques against politicians perceived as being less receptive to their desire for profit.

Aside from these two examples, and also leaving aside the Grenfell Tower disaster (latest: inflammable cladding may have been used on up to 600 other high-rise apartment buildings in the UK; replacing that is going to cost billions), what other examples can you think of where you can profit by crying fire in a crowded theatre?

903 Comments

1:

White hat cyber warriors crying cyber cyber cyber to get your cyber security cyber dollars.

2:

Charlie, you're missing the obvious one here. The news media benefits from getting people riled up so they will be glued to their televisions/phones because they want to be told soothing lies kept informed about what the hell is going on. News execs gave the game away by admitting publicly that they gave Tr*mp so much airtime because he was good for business, not necessarily good for the country.

3:

Theoretically, if one were to own a national paper one could inflate or invent all sorts of woes, then blame them on external factors in the name of swinging the Overton window in a direction that just happens to be beneficial to one's own tax affairs, and those of any similarly affluent advertisers and business partners one might have.

But I'd have to be some sort of ridiculous conspiracy theorist to believe such a convoluted scenario.

4:

I should add another classic example: Andrew Wakefield and the alleged vaccine/autism link. Per the BMJ, Carmel Healthcare Ltd would succeed in marketing products and developing a replacement vaccine if "public confidence in the MMR vaccine was damaged (Carmel Healthcare was a company named after Wakefield's wife; per WebMD $43 million predicted yearly profits would come from marketing kits for "diagnosing patients with autism" and that "the initial market for the diagnostic will be litigation-driven testing of patients with AE [autistic enterocolitis, an unproven condition concocted by Wakefield] from both the UK and the US.

(Warning: I'm quoting from Wikipedia who in turn are citing sources. Please don't dive down this rabbit hole as Wakefield appears to still be actively promoting anti-vaccination claims and this has led to litigation in the past.)

But yeah, the anti-vaxxer movement appears to me to have been started deliberately in order to sell alternative treatments.

5:

How far does the "crying fire" analogy go? You could stretch it to include Icke, Scientology and so on. Would it be wise to draw a boundary around it for the purposes of the first 300 comments?

6:

Boris Johnson hanging his hat on the "Leave" campaign, once all the Conservative future leaders swung behind "Remain" (however lukewarm).

He stood to win the Party Leadership, and become Prime Minister, if the vote went his way - regardless of whether it was good for the country. He'd have got away with it, if it hadn't been for those pesky kidsGoves

7:

Looking at the fire risk from cladding problem, it strikes me that the easiest way to solve this is to do a couple of things:

Firstly, set a policy that in the event of a fire alarm, tower blocks are to evacuate. Put in provisos so that deliberate false triggers are punished and make the evacuate alarm criteria fairly hard to achieve to prevent there being too many false alarms, but also put sprinkler systems into the hallways so that fire never prevents evacuation.

Secondly, some means of preventing cladding fires escalating quickly needs to be found, whether this be halon-type extinguishers along the panel edges, pop-out sprinkler systems or refits of panels.

A final point must be to realise that tower blocks are dangerous environments in the event of fire, and must be made less dangerous by as effective a set of means as can be developed. Letting people die in preventable fires is just not on.

8:

In the U.S., a large portion of conservative fundraising basically operates on this principle. Fearmongering about guns/gays/atheists/environmentalists leads directly to requests for PAC donations, and then to sales pitches to buy gold, home schooling materials, and survivalist equipment.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/super-pac-scams-114581_full.html?print

9:

Uber Lyft etc deliberately betting against mass-transit, coupled with massive publicity & also coupled with vile employment practices ??

10:

Conservatives playing up the shortcomings of single-payer healthcare in order to make way for more profitable insurance schemes would seem to fit here.

11:

It's shallow and obvious, but: News International deliberately running stories about the inherent bias of public service broadcasters... so as to drive consumers through their own paywall?

;) "Jobs for the Boys" syndrome - anyone who campaigned for Scottish Independence because of the personal opportunities of forced decentralisation (e.g. artists and actors and producers wondering about setting up a new Scottish Arts Council; or a Scottish Broadcasting Corporation, showing Scottish content) ;)

12:

Previous policy to remain in your flat was set back when asbestos insulation was in use (when the flats were built). The asbestos was stripped ... but not effectively replaced. And the cladding was highly inflammable (to save pennies they filled it with polystyrene instead of rock wool).

Because these buildings were not designed with rapid evacuation in mind it's quite possible that the stairwells don't have the capacity to permit evacuation.

A couple of easy measures spring to mind:

  • Replace the cladding with inert material (a no-brainer, already in progress).

  • Retrofit sprinklers, especially in the stairwells, and fire doors in the passageways.

  • Install smoke hoods in cabinets in every flat and stairwell. Most of the fatalities were due to smoke inhalation; even if you can't speed up the process of evacuation by stairwell, you can reduce casualties by enabling evacuees to breathe.

  • Lighting strips at floor level, leading to stairwells. We do this on airliners, and LED lighting strips are dirt cheap these days. Why don't we do it in buildings?

  • 13:

    I think this generalises in the obvious way: it's not really the news media, it's Googlebook: the more time people spend getting really furious and trolling/fighting trolls the mode adverts they see and the more money pours into their pockets.

    This is just the whole 'Fake news' thing by another name of course.

    14:

    Fire! The Algo version:

    The price of ethereum crashed as low as 10 cents from around $319 in about a second on the GDAX cryptocurrency exchange on Wednesday, a move that is being blamed on a "multimillion dollar market sell" order.

    Ethereum briefly crashed from $319 to 10 cents in seconds on one exchange after ‘multimillion dollar’ trade CNBC 41 mins ago, 22nd June, 2017

    Step 1: own 2 million Eth

    Step 2: place 2 mil stop loss orders at $0.2 dollars

    Step 3: Dump 1 mil onto market and shout "!It's Hit the TOP, WHALES ARE GETTING OUT!" very loudly to the algos and watch it swamp and cut anyone trading on margin funding down like they were running through the Somme as the sell snowball accelerates (in 10 nanoseconds or so)

    Step 3.1: Be really evil and design it so the same currency is the default collateral on that exchange so that the snowball will really gut everyone's holdings: your $400 margin which was 1.2 Eth is now 1000 Eth, ooops, sold them all automatically for you, thanks!

    Step 3.2: Hold your own collateral in a different currency (say, BitCoin) so your "losses" on 1 mil sell orders being gradually filled by lower stop loss purchases are off-set by the predicable rise as Eth burns down and screaming cubicle dwellers panic convert to The Other less-fashionable-crypto

    Step 4: wild wild west and why market banking regulations are probably a good idea (Big Banks Can Relax, Trump’s Modern Glass-Steagall Isn’t Aimed at Breaking Them Up WSJ, 18th May, 2017)

    Step 5: You now own 3 million Eth coins at the expense of all your buddies and are king of the virtual tulip store

    Step 5.1: Go onto popular forums and spam "Buy the dip! Always buy the dip!" smugly to reset the sheep into tulip mode

    Oh, and you just made $32 million on the side.

    Full Disclosure: have no holdings in Eth, just saw warning flashes all over it. So, kinda the counter-point, but there we go. cough

    ~

    Another version would be the Jaws scenario where just by moving you cause everyone else to scream "fire" and wet their knickers just by existing:

    Amazon is spending $13.7 billion to buy Whole Foods, but its damage to the stock market has already been in the tens of billions.

    Just among the biggest losers in the retail and food categories in the S&P 500, the market cap destruction for just 20 stocks was $37.7 billion Friday.

    Amazon-Whole Foods threat wipes out nearly $40 billion in market value from other companies CNBC 16th June, 2017

    ~

    Fire! The actual version using symbolic (and very stereotypical) animals:

    Qataris were furious after photos of famished camels appeared in local newspapers on June 19. Authorities sent caravans of provisions to relieve the stranded animals and have now set up temporary shelters.

    A 4,500-mile-square peninsula in the Persian Gulf, Qatar has little land to pasture its camels, which are a backbone of traditional culture and recreation there. In the past, many Qatari families have simply pastured their camels in Saudi Arabia, traveling back and forth across the border to tend to their livestock.

    Saudi Arabia Deports 15,000 Qatari Camels Foreign Policy, June 20th, 2017

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DSM:IND - notice the 19th slump. Symbolic or not, camels have serious history in that area

    ~

    Disappears to post-300 ramblings.

    15:

    There's a whole fire-crying class problem whenever transport in London is under discussion. Taxi drivers are independent businesspeople whose livelihood relies on a system optimised for London's current conditions (near-gridlock, congestion charge and parking fees make it painful to use a private car, but some people want or need more speed/flexibility/privacy than a bus or train offers). However whenever transport issues are under discussion, the media uses them as a relatable proxy for urban planning experts, with the predictable outcome that they're against any change to the current system.

    16:

    The arts sector broadly splits into two categories — those who are dependent on public funding, and those who expect to turn a profit or starve (i.e. they run on a popular subscription model, like me). Note that one sub-sector is not inherently superior to the other: there are some things we probably need but which can't be paid for by the market. And the public feeds into and upon the academic sector (MA Creative Writing courses would be very different if lecturers had to publish their fiction on a commercial basis).

    As for a Scottish Broadcasting Corporation, we've already got that insofar as the BBC has a big outpost in Glasgow producing content tailored to Scotland.

    More interesting is the implication of HMRC needing a whole tax farming infrastructure north of the border, rather than just outlying offices ...!

    17:

    Another couple trivial measure:

    Do not install "flameretardent" insulation, it only works in still air where the combustion products prevent oxygensupply to the flame. If there is a draft or chimney-effect, it burns just fine.

    If you move the windows out to the new facade, require the insulation 1m around the windows to be of noncombustible material.

    What happened here was the exact opposite, which gave an exterior fire direct access to all apartments via the windows.

    18:

    Buy, and then actually deploy in a timely manner, the best available high level rescue vehicles. Bronto Skylift make one which can evacuate from the 33rd level of a building, at a range of 25m from the vehicle chassis.

    19:

    In regards to the whole Trump/Fossil Fuel connection and his subsequent pulling out of the Paris agreement, it appears to be an act of such selfish stupidity that it surely borders on criminal. I could almost find argument enough to say it is one of the most criminal acts in history. It will put the US behind its main rivals in terms of the forthcoming boom in green energy technology and continue our species on its path towards the cliff edge of climate change. If our environment heats up my just 2 degrees then we are looking at mass starvation due to crop failure, unprecedented levels of immigration and potential global and regional conflicts, but that OK, because Trump and his cronies will be rich now. Same with Brexit, a foreign media mogul has been allowed to interfere so much with our political system to his own ends that he has, in part, driven our country into chaos. Why are we worried about terrorism when these people are committing acts like this? They are making billions by shouting fire, and we are all running for the exits while they root through our pockets.

    20:

    Oh, cynical time:

    Fire! The destruction of your lower / middle class, American Edition.

    Step 1: Publish many many "The Robots are going to take the jobs" articles and serious Presidential warnings of the same

    Step 1.A: Do absolutely nothing about this (instead, cut Medicare etc)

    Step 2: Publish many "Minimum wage should be $15 / hr" pieces for the Other side to gain hope from and to set the scene for the sharks

    Step 3: Install robots in the lowest wage retail industries just as most retailers are tanking[1][2]

    Step 4: To the Moooon! (offer may not apply to "the poors" or ethnic minorities, Prison stocks rise as bonus side)

    Step 5: Real bonus move; ensure entire generation is saddled with $1+ trillion in loans just as this happens

    Andrew Charles from Cowen cited plans for the restaurant chain to roll out mobile ordering across 14,000 U.S. locations by the end of 2017. The technology upgrades, part of what McDonald's calls "Experience of the Future," includes digital ordering kiosks that will be offered in 2,500 restaurants by the end of the year and table delivery...

    The analyst raised his price target for McDonald's to $180 from $142, representing 17.5 percent upside from Monday's close. He also raised his 2018 earnings-per-share forecast to $6.87 from $6.71 versus the Wall Street consensus of $6.83.

    McDonald's hits all-time high as Wall Street cheers replacement of cashiers with kiosks CNBC 20th June, 2017

    [1] The Silent Crisis of Retail Employment The Atlantic, 18th April, 2017

    [2] Moreover, a recent study found that a large chunk of retail jobs "likely will be automated" in the coming years, which could leave a portion of the retail workforce out of a job. This has already started happening: Panera Bread, a fast-casual restaurant chain, has started replacing human cashiers with kiosks. Retail keeps bleeding jobs Business Insider, 2nd June, 2017

    [3] Panera Bread Is Replacing Cashiers With Kiosks Business Insider, May 5th, 2017 - now look @ the stock price http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pnra - someone clearly got a tip off / obvious insider trading is obvious. Niiiice exponential ramp then flat-line there, the algos are proud.[4]

    [4] No, really: totally, 100% obvious insider trading there, shines like a beacon. Bonus round: find out which Congress people own that stock either directly or indirectly.

    ~

    Really will wander off now.

    21:

    So we're looking for things that either

    A) influence public opinion so that Option A is chosen over Option B and you happen to be long Option A

    or

    B) create a panic or a shortage when you happen to have the solution to the problem, regardless of whether the problem is real or imagined.

    or

    C) create a controversy where you make money commenting on that controversy

    or

    D) create uncertainty or turblulence where you sell things that reduce risk

    or

    E) influence public opinion so that they make a political choice that favours your position.

    And something that is a bit beyond just lobbying or advertising or public relations?

    Perhaps the support by the Southern aristocracy for the American Revolution for Freedom so that they could avoid British anti-slavery measures.

    Or the stoking up of fear of radiation by energy industries other than the nuclear energy industry.

    There's a lovely example of shouting "Fire's out!" for fun and profit from the Napoleonic War where Andrew Cochraine-Johnstone (uncle of Admiral Cochraine / Jack Aubrey) hired some French Bourbon officers to walk slowly from Yorkshire to London saying Napoleon had abdicated and the Bourbons had won whilst he was busy selling UK government bonds. Thomas Cochraine went to prison for that and had to escape to found the Chilean Navy.

    22:

    Edison and the elephant that he used to influence opinion in favour of his electricity genertors.

    Baby milk manufacturers.

    The tobacco industry?

    The use of anti-German propaganda by the US temperance movement after the Great War.

    Payment Protection Insurance.

    23:

    4. Lighting strips at floor level, leading to stairwells. We do this on airliners, and LED lighting strips are dirt cheap these days. Why don't we do it in buildings?<.i>

    This is actually happening now for modern new builds and refits - the emergency lighting is skirting mounted battery backed 5w LEDs. Two main reasons: they are low power and skirting is readily accessible so cheap and easy to install, and they are below the smoke level so very popular with inspectors/fire brigades. They also look much more tasteful so the interior designers like em. I imagine embedding direction arrows will be a simple addition in future.

    On the Grenfell front, there is so much wrong emerging involved with the building it almost appears deliberately designed to remove the poor inhabitants in a way that allows the building to be destroyed or condemned without needing a rebuild.
    Illegal flammable cladding, copper gas pipes in evacuation areas, not using separate risers, much of the fire stopping removed and not replaced, potentially a lack of stopping between floors in the cladding, minimal evacuation capacity, chaotic followups ... it's really hard to do that much that wrong by accident. I expect it to quietly emerge that there was an intentional unwritten policy of neglect in the background.

    24:

    One example of shouting fire (That has become a quiet industry in-joke) is the aviation sector and it's claims of a "looming pilot shortage." This is then a signal for you as an outsider to get your parents to re mortgage the house and pay for training which the industry can't be bothered with. I suppose it isn't a way of making money, but it categorically does save a lot of it.

    Then you seeing this scheme everywhere. The doctor shortage (No shortage of prospective medical students), the shortage of nurses, and all the way down to a lack of fruit pickers, as seen on the BBC today.

    Stross - Speaking as someone who has a relative who is versed in council construction, the front door is each flat's fire door, and sprinklers don't have much use in stairwells if the communal areas are kept clear of rubbish and combustible crap like old furniture. They should, by definition, be bare concrete that contains nothing that can burn or give off smoke that prevents escape. Obvious maybe, but apparently not obeyed here.

    Single escape route stairwells, concrete construction and a "stay put" policy all clearly work because this event is without precedent, but idiots setting flat fires in order to get themselves rehoused is not: This is made evident in the fact that the top of the building burned primarily because the fire tenders simply can't pump water to a height that they were never designed to have to deal with.

    25:

    Buy, and then actually deploy in a timely manner, the best available high level rescue vehicles.

    That's a great suggestion!

    Now, which government was it again that is committed to delivering a 30-40% cut in spending on public services ...?

    26:

    F) Promise them anything ... and know that you can get away with any lie once you're rich enough.

    Have been watching this story off and on for a while now. Disclaimer: Have no personal or financial ties to this product or outfit (or its competitors), just think that this story provides impetus to study pharma, addiction and other dangerous/unwanted drug/med effects more seriously and from a wider perspective.

    Purdue marketed oxycontin as a safe opioid - totally non-addictive. They hid the actual results (lied) and are (probably) responsible for opening up entirely new segments of the population to addiction, i.e., middle-aged, educated, white-collar types, grannies, etc. who once addicted and no longer able to get legal scrips from their MDs have turned to street drug dealers.

    And, guess what - in a bunch of jurisdictions getting caught with street drugs will strip you of your right to vote and possibly to access to healthcare because your drug addiction will probably cost you your job. This in turn means you can't elect a Rep who might introduce legislation to seriously fine Pharma execs for blatant lying as well as unmuzzle the FDA.

    Since its launch, Purdue's total revenues and stock market values from oxycontin are in the tens of billions while the fines and legal settlements are maybe a hundred mil. Yes, a prime example of balanced US priorities and values.

    And as the story below shows, Purdue may even be supplying the street as it continues to grab every penny of profit it can from its 'ethical drug' product.

    http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/americas-heroin-epidemic/oxycontin-maker-purdue-pharma-hit-unprecedented-lawsuit-washington-n731571

    Excerpt:

    'While other suits against the company by states and municipalities have accused Purdue Pharma of deceptive marketing — allegedly playing up OxyContin’s effectiveness while playing down its addictiveness — Everett’s lawsuit is the first to claim the company knew its drugs were being diverted and did nothing to stop it.'

    PS: Feel similarly about the PCR who are doing next to nothing about stopping the manufacture and export of an even deadlier drug which is still being made/exported in sufficient quantities to completely kill off entire country populations. In early 2017, the Canadian border agency seized one shipment of carfentanyl equivalent to 36 million overdoses. Cdn pop'n is 37 million.

    Am wondering whether the Grenfell Tower scenario is based on similar 'values' using the same market and legal mechanics, just a different industry.

    27:

    The problem with smoke hoods is twofold. For one thing you'd have to have a blanket ban on residents having guests in their flats to be absolutely certain there'd be enough to go around, which would be not just hugely unpopular but nigh-impossible to actually enforce. And even if that problem was overcome, you have to somehow ensure that the smoke hoods on offer are simple enough to use that someone who has a limited grasp of written English can operate them properly in the dark while scared shitless.

    Your other points are pretty sensible, although there's some doubt whether retrofitting sprinklers is practical in all cases; the only way to ensure the necessary water pressure is available to the sprinklers on upper floors is to put a holding tank on the roof, which might not be able to take the weight.

    28:

    I've been thinking about the issue of antibiotic resistance and vaccines recently, not to mention Zika, Ebola, West Nile Virus, etc. I'd love to see opinion movers start screaming about the need for more vaccines against more diseases, including (if this idea works) the common vectors of infections, plus STDs.

    Because otherwise WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!! IT WILL BE HORRIBLE. IF WE DON'T INVENT TWENTY NEW VACCINES AT ONCE YOUR CHILDREN WILL DIE OF EBOLA AND GIVE BIRTH TO ZIKA BABIES AND LOSE LIMBS TO ANTIBIOTIC-RESISTANT INFECTIONS AND THE HOSPITALS AND MORGUES WILL OVERFLOW INTO THE STREET AND YOU WILL TRIP OVER CORPSES ON YOUR WAY TO WORK EVERY MORNING!

    Anyway, it would be nice to see the power of "the crowded theatre (of the absurd)" used for good.

    30:

    Re: Anti-vax behavior

    Wonder how many anti-vaxers would get vaccinated for vanity reasons, e.g., baldness, grey hair, sagging skin/wrinkles, etc. and how they'd talk their way around this.

    31:

    Typo ...

    PCR should have been PRC (People's Republic of China) ... but you knew that, right?

    32:

    For something slightly more subtle, consider privatizing education on the US/De Vos model... which is admittedly more of a long-burning fire than a building conflagration.

    Start treating education-not-available-to-the-Entitled-Class as largely intended to train worker-drones in present production/distribution-technology jobs. Not actual thinking computer scientists, but website coders.

    Watch technology change in a decade so that those workers have no mobility, no advancement skills other than what they've picked up on the job (which is often nontrivial)... and little baseline education to ease retraining into something new.

    Lather, rinse, repeat, and watch the unions founder rather permanently in about twenty years, which enriches the Entitled Class that owns formerly-unionized workplaces and limits the social mobility prospects of the Undesirables (that is, those whose income comes primarily from their own efforts — not from passive income generated through owning Things and/or being Maxwell's Very-Well-Compensated Demon for those who own Things).

    At the beginning, invest in for-profit "schools" and for-profit "technology centers" and for-profit "retraining academies" and for-profit "entrepreneurial advocacy centers." And so-called "real" property.

    33:

    "...privatizing education on the US/De Vos model..."

    Is all about the racism. (And giving money to big corporations.)

    34:

    But mainly about the racism.

    35:

    And yet still more racism!

    36:

    How about the long-standing practice by the US government of fomenting conflict for the benefit and enormous profit of the military-industrial complex? It is my considered opinion formed by a lifetime of in-place observation that the creation and encouraging of conflict around the world is deliberate policy at the highest levels of our government.

    I'm a US citizen, born and raised here.

    I don't believe that any of the conflicts we're participated in since and including) Vietnam were 'legitimate' in that they would not have occurred or would not have been as severe or long-lasting as they were, without the deliberate encouragement of the US government.

    37:

    You're assuming that because smoke hoods might only save some people in a flat if there were guests it would be better not to have them and let everyone die?

    (There would be an awkward question in the case of a fire about who gets the hood, of course, but I still thing reducing deaths is worth while, even if you can't eliminate them.)

    38:

    I think this may be leaving out elements that are contradictory to the narrative.

    For russia the best thing would be for the US to tightly restrict drilling within it's own territory. They're selling oil and gas. reducing the supply is good for them. But trump appears to be keen to get american companies pulling more out of the ground even when it's not wise.

    39:

    I was thinking more that fistfights breaking out over who got a hood and who had to make do with holding their breath would create at least as many problems as they might have theoretically solved.

    40:

    Re the OP, the degenerate financial markets version of this I see has various names, including poop and scoop and short and distort (not quite the same but close enough). Searches didn't find many well documented examples though. (I hate this stuff; OK at predicting optimist/bull market moves but horrible at fear/bear market prediction.)

    An unmentioned US example in the style of the OP is to claim that the "Democrats will take away your guns" (when they are in power or might be soon) and that you should therefore buy more guns and ammo. Similarly, mass shootings, riots and slight increases in crime rates (or simple lies or exaggerated/made-up stories) are often loudly played up to boost gun sales.

    41:

    Now, which government was it again that is committed to delivering a 30-40% cut in spending on public services ...? No party that I have ever supported has made such a commitment.

    42:

    Speaking as someone who has a relative who is versed in council construction, the front door is each flat's fire door, and sprinklers don't have much use in stairwells if the communal areas are kept clear of rubbish and combustible crap like old furniture. They should, by definition, be bare concrete that contains nothing that can burn or give off smoke that prevents escape. Obvious maybe, but apparently not obeyed here.

    Single escape route stairwells, concrete construction and a "stay put" policy all clearly work because this event is without precedent, but idiots setting flat fires in order to get themselves rehoused is not: This is made evident in the fact that the top of the building burned primarily because the fire tenders simply can't pump water to a height that they were never designed to have to deal with.

    It may be "without precedent" in the UK, but we had these kinds of fires years ago over here in the U.S.

    It has long been known that having only one route for escape from a multi-story building creates a death trap. That's why fire safety laws in the U.S. require at least two routes for escape.

    Plus, in the U.S., high-rise buildings with internal fire stairs are required to have an over-pressure system triggered by the fire alarm, so that smoke is kept out of the fire stairwells. Open the fire door into the stairwell and there's wind blowing OUT.

    Everything I've read indicates it was the contractor doing the refurbishment who was responsible for combustible materials in communal areas. The residents repeatedly complained about the hazards presented by the workers not keeping the work areas clear.

    And given the decision NOT to require retro-fitting sprinkler systems during the refurbishment, there is simply no excuse for the local fire department not having equipment suitable for fighting a high-rise fire.

    43:

    The modern standard bearer is the asbestos hysteria, which has created an entire and very lucrative industry, removing all traces of asbestos whether or not there is any reason to. The original problem was entirely in the industrial uses, and blue asbestos to boot. Most asbestos in buildings is best just left, and isn't much more carcinogenic than glass fibre, anyway.

    44:

    RoHS has had some of the same problems. The fluxes needed for lead free solders are much more corrosive, and failure rates had a huge spike due to in whiskers and brittle joints. Most of the failure problems have been solved now due to improved alloys but the flux problem is still there.

    45:

    "Because these buildings were not designed with rapid evacuation in mind it's quite possible that the stairwells don't have the capacity to permit evacuation."

    I still recall participating in a fire drill evacuation of a govt. bldg with eight floors using the stairwells.

    Great scenes of 50-55 year old chairborne warriors such as myself hiking down the stairs two-by-two since they tried to pack us in as tightly as possible.

    If this had been a real fire I would have been trampled or killed by smoke since it took so long to get people out.

    46:

    Okay - once the 99.9-percenters are jobless (unable to earn therefore to invest) how are the 0.1-percenters going to compete on the stock market (or anywhere else)?

    Every major brokerage firm probably has or is working on getting its own AI by now. So you have maybe 30 or 40 different AIs* trying to finagle the market. And, it isn't unlikely given the current international political paranoia that some gov'ts might not also be experimenting with unleashing AIs possibly with the view to source key commodities at best possible costs. (Thinking this might be the direction for OPEC.)

    Then because media has become a major financial powerhouse, they're also likely to try their own AI. And if their AI doesn't make money directly, hey! - they can get some good stories out of it anyways.

    • 'Different' because this is a very untrusting and untrustworthy bunch.
    47:

    This seems like kind of a strange use of the phrase "crying fire in a crowded theater". I usually see this phrase as a reference to a famous US supreme court decision about free speech issues, which do not seem to figure into the current thread.

    https://www.popehat.com/2012/09/19/three-generations-of-a-hackneyed-apologia-for-censorship-are-enough/

    Does it traditionally mean something different in the UK?

    48:

    Unless you imagine that your free speech is protected on an analogy level to foreever cry "WOLF" and chuckle as the rubes buy your snake oil solutions.

    And yes, it kinda does:

    The notion of proximity and of the intentions and likely effects of an utterance, can be seen to underlie the conviction and hanging of Derek Bentley (subsequently pardoned) in Britain in 1952-1953 for shouting, Let him have it, Chris, to his accomplice who shot a policeman.

    Shouting Fire on a Crowded Internet Bulletin of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 31 JAN 2005, PDF

    Derek Bentley case

    R. v. Derek Bentley (Deceased) [1998] EWCA Crim 2516

    So, yeah: while American Libertarians love their little 1919 case and ignore all the lynchings, the UK had a post-war case that very much influenced the death penalty (abolition thereof) and so forth.

    p.s.

    You're watching The United States of America die, right now, as it happens, if you're paying attention.

    You should probably mourn a little.

    49:

    p.s.

    Popehat is a hack. Arise to protect the dream?

    LOL. NOPE. IT'S ON FIRE NOW KEN. GOING DOWN IN A BLAZE OF FAILED RHETORIC.

    Animal Mother YT: Film, Full Metal Jacket, 4:22

    ~

    Freedom of Speech They Howled Until their Minds Empty Forgot the Song

    50:

    Okay - once the 99.9-percenters are jobless (unable to earn therefore to invest) how are the 0.1-percenters going to compete on the stock market (or anywher else)?

    Probably by selling credit default swaps on the 99-percent based on Jonathan Swift's "Modest Proposal".

    51:

    Re: 'Jonathan Swift's "Modest Proposal".'

    To feed their machines à la Matrix, maybe.

    52:

    The normal (if you're actually trying to keep everyone alive, rather than just comply with regulations) way to deploy smoke hoods (EEBD) is to have as many in each room as the room can hold. So if each flat could have say, 40 people over for a party, then each flat's main living area would have 40 hoods. Around 2 per metre in hallways depending on the width. You don't have to have them every metre, you can put 10 every 5 metres. There are standards under the Safety of Life at Sea, but they're pretty inadequate. Like for ships carrying more than 36 passengers, you have to have 4 sets in each vertical zone and two spares.

    You need enough spares so that the right number are on hand while some are off being serviced, about 10% of the total fleet would be normal.

    They're not hard to use and they have pictogram instructions, but about 1 minute of training is probably a good idea.

    citation:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzzBIpqjpRA

    Service intervals vary but 5 years seems common. Depends on the regulatory body who oversees pressurised containers in that country. In Australia I think it's annual (I should know from personal experience having actually serviced them for a living but I forget), but we're always well OTT. I think small cylinders never used underwater are 5 years, but I've got some idea that it was shortened in this case, but I could easily be wrong. Anyway the UK will be different. Expect to pay for about 30 minutes labour to service each one, and the spare parts (o'rings and a valve seat), so maybe 50-100 dollars each.

    They're a little expensive for what they are (about a $1000 each bought one at a time) and might be a theft risk too.

    https://www.bigsafety.com.au/elsa-15-min-escape-breathing-apparatus-complete-with-cylinder.html?gclid=CjwKEAjw1a3KBRCY9cfsmdmWgQ0SJAATUZ8bZg2wW5gTh19iL1jzVLbygf_1p8oI9MfDExkq_aSE4RoChanw_wcB

    53:

    STEM Education and the huge drives to increase STEM in schools.

    Is there really a shortage of scientists, engineers, and mathematicians? Probably not, with some few exceptions.

    The evidence: --How many PhD students in any field get to work as professors in that field? I know, in ecology and botany, it was on order of 1-5%. I'm one of the 95%. --In PhD fields with substantial industrial sectors, how many PhD students get jobs in their field? For most, I'll bet it's <<100%. Of course it never will be 100%, because there are real reasons for changing fields, but if we really were that short of scientists and engineers, people would be flooding into those fields, because the pay is good. --A good example: DPharm pharmacy education in California. Back around 2000, it was a growth field, everyone who wanted to could work 2 or more jobs straight out of college (one full time, one per diem), there were a few schools producing pharmacists, everyone got bonuses and paid off their >$100k student debt within five years. The inevitable result was that at least five more universities opened up pharmacy schools. Now, the students coming out are looking at requirements for post-PhD advanced credentials and residencies just to get ordinary pharmacist jobs. Meanwhile, the older crop of pharmacists is getting worried that they'll be laid off in favor of a younger, less experienced but more credentialed crop, who will do more for less money and won't expect job security. Sound familiar? This is what happens with market forces playing.

    So why is there this constant anxiety about STEM education? It's quite simple: --Industry prefers cheapwe tech workers, especially those who don't unionize because they're afraid it will affect their employability (good brainwashing, that). --Universities have turned their professors into basically the owner/managers of small franchises (aka their labs) who have to both make payroll every month (pay their postdocs, researchers, and RAs), and pay upwards of half their grant revenues to the franchise owner (the university), who conveniently uses all that money flowing in to both fund new projects (aka careers for bureaucrats) and to support departments without grants (the humanities) who might otherwise complain and organize. --Oh, and because the professors are so busy making money that they don't have time to teach, there's an inevitable shortage of teachers and researchers. This is solved by hiring grad students and adjunct faculty, who do most of the actual teaching and research now. Since these are short-term positions, there's always a shortage of them, so you need more STEM students coming in to make up for the inevitable shortfall.
    --To keep the STEM students coming in when you're going to screw them over, you focus their attention on the prospect of tenured job security and the beauty of the material their learning, and get pesky organizations like grad student unions focused on improving the lives of grad students, rather than focusing on their employability. The whole "ivory tower" aspect of academia rather helps with this, because it attracts people who get obsessed with things, rather than looking at the bottom line.

    Oh, and let's not forget academic publishing, which, last time I looked, was about an order of magnitude bigger in revenues than romance publishing. The reason is simple: publish or perish. And academic publishing runs on the vanity model, wherein authors pay to publish, sometimes thousands of dollars for a 2000 word article. Someone then pays to buy the journal (it's considered a sign of social inferiority to buy your own journals. The school should do it for you, using money coming from...). Status, pay, and grant-worthiness (among other things) come from the status of your articles, so there's a huge incentive to bring in lots of grant money to pay for articles to improve your ability to bring in lots of grant money. But if you're playing MoneyLab, you also need to attract a lot of young scientists to apprentice with you, so it's always wise to push STEM education as one of your causes of choice.

    What did I miss?

    54:

    To feed their machines à la Matrix, maybe. Atropos Logos@20's outline looks rather Underpants-Gnomish long-term until you start working out what could be done with large numbers of desperate unemployed humans. e.g. the Silicon Valley's (TV show) "blood boy", transferring not money but life and vitality from young to old. (Dunno if it works, probably it does, e.g. Blood from human teens rejuvenates body and brains of old mice) Or full organs; long sci-fi history including Niven's society that fosters organleggers. Solved eventually by the Puppeteers with boosterspice, for other reasons. (IIRC, not going to reread.) Who has other such examples? I'm not feeling nearly cynical enough tonight, and being in the US am feeling slammed hard lately.

    55:

    The quick way to build a post scarcity society is to build a post people society. It's for our own good really.

    56:

    Um, all my examples were real. They always are.

    @Host's twitter - mirrors crackin, people falling back on tired old "Conspiracy Theory" tropes ( Chemical Burn YT: Film Fight Club, 2:39 - don't do that, almost as sad as JK Rowling falling back into limp satire Lion critiques when she fell for the Murdoch WSJ attack vectors and her wealth is based on basically making Private Schools cool - oh, and her arch-Nemesis rabid racist blonde woman actually does have a brain tumor / bleed: it's all post-Swiftian).

    Truly funny bit (that seems to have been memory holed):

    Me: Hey, Host, here's the newest cryptocurrency thing, and it looks like it's a.... oh, yep, there's the scam in action, boooom. (Less than 24 hrs later).

    Random Eth nut from the intarweb: Hey, Host! You wrote Accelerando (which, innocent look, kinda linked to), support our cause for the Singularity, Eth is like the start of it!!!

    Host: Yeah. 12-18 years ago, really not feeling it, my next book features your kind as the bad guys -.-

    Now that was comedy timing.

    If you think that any of the current US issues are accidental, well. I've got the Dominionist Booklet right here.

    Have courage.

    p.s.

    I'm not feeling nearly cynical enough tonight

    Go look up chromium-6 in your water supply.

    But almost 25 years after that real-life confrontation,[1] the conflict over chromium-6 is not over. A new EWG analysis of federal data from nationwide drinking water tests shows that the compound contaminates water supplies for more than 200 million Americans in all 50 states. Yet federal regulations are stalled by a chemical industry challenge that could mean no national regulation of a chemical state scientists in California and elsewhere say causes cancer when ingested at even extraordinarily low levels.

    'Erin Brockovich' Carcinogen in Tap Water of More than 200 Million Americans EWG, Sept 2016

    Holy Fuck, if you knew the truth, well... Let's just say: ICEBERGS MAN, ICEBERGS.

    57:

    And, to tie this in nicely:

    Kate Hopkins, Brain Injury Twitter, Kate Hopkins, 21st June, 2017.

    So, yes: That's the Daily Mail, "final solution", get rid of all the Muslims lady using the NHS to cure her traumatic brain injury while she preaches privatization / pro-Trump / pro-Tory nonsense and she even thanks the Nurses (who she wants either deported or made redundant or paid less).

    Literally using Social Media to whip up her lively-hood (blame the Americans Ann Coulter for the mould she poured her lack of self-esteem into) while... oh, fuck it, you get it.

    You're so far through the looking glass, it makes Jeff Noon (Vurt AMZN) seem normal.

    Go Ask Alice YT: Music, Jefferson Airplane...

    p.s.

    Your society is literally a Mirror. And we're coming through...

    58:

    I'm not much of a comic book reader, but I'm enjoying The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl (Marvel) courtesy of a plug on Charlie's Twitter. I assume no money changed hands for said plug. . .

    I know we're not talking about straightforward advertising here, but it strikes me that Social Media Influencer is a viable career now. (All those lifestyle bloggers plugging diet pills. Gag.) That a lot of people live their lives largely in social media silos getting their news-ish worldview from those bloggers, devoid of any semblance of traditional journalistic standards, would seem to be an interesting step-change.

    http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/04/24/vanlife-the-bohemian-social-media-movement

    I take it that the OP is really talking about dangling dishonest or misleading clickbait to an audience likely to signal boost it, hopefully taking it viral, then benefitting via the means and ends outlined @21.

    It's that everyone's-a-publisher-now potential for virality which makes social media different. A stock scam which might once have required a boiler room full of phone operators or good connections with traditional media to plant a story can now be acheived by one guy in a basement.

    Like every other dot.com, fake news creators seem to be reliant on advertising for revenue. This clown made thousands:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/18/us/fake-news-hillary-clinton-cameron-harris.html

    59:

    Assumes facts not in evidence. If we really had a massive wave of automation going on we would see a correspondingly massive growth in productivity. Productivity growth has been anemic in nations at the technological frontier for decades - the robot holocaust may come someday but right now it's not even breathing hard.

    60:

    Holy Fuck

    I literally had no idea about hexavalent chromium.

    We use to have friggin Potassium DiChromate handed out like fairy floss in High School. I came home literally covered in the stuff. We set fire to it and dumped burning magnesium in it for shits and giggles. There was a science demonstration that involved a plaster volcano, potassium dicromate and magnesium that was supposed to demonstrate tuff deposition. About a kg of the stuff and a roll of magnesium got dumped in the 'volcano' when the teacher wasn't looking. It looked like a flame thrower when he set it off. There was green potassium chromate six inches deep over half the classroom (along with god knows how much dichromate ejected during the demo.

    LD 50 of 14mg/kg, there was probably enough to kill the whole school twice over in that jar.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potassium_dichromate#Safety

    61:

    I actually thought I'd maxed out the bitter hatred I had for school and the dickheads who where my "teachers"

    Now I find that they may actually end my life early or cause some sort of heritable shit to happen to my daughter.

    Because they were such fuckwits that they couldn't even read an MSDS

    Jesus wept.

    62:

    You are spot on with the origin of the "crying fire in a crowded theater" expression: It is the quintessential SCOTUS example that there are limitations to the 1st amendment.

    The metaphor is the brainchild of Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr., and he used it in a case in 1919 to illustrate that speech which is damaging AND false is not protected, whereas damaging AND true speech is.

    I posed the question to Charlie because to me it looks like Our New Martian Overlords have acquired the unchallenged "human" right to yell fire in crowded theaters.

    Exhibit A is obviously the tabloid/click-bait press, who get away with pouring gasoline on the bonfire of racism, sabotage important public health efforts (climate, vaccines) and piss on any human right they don't like (sexism)

    Exhibit B, C, D & E is probably a tie between the tobacco/fossil fuels/agrochemical/pharma industries, each of which have peddled blatant falsehoods causing widespread damage, and laughed all the way to the bank.

    And that's before we even consider their efforts to commandeer the levers of power through Fake News.

    63:

    Algorithmic Trading

    A majority of buy/sell offers for shares these days are not real. They go into the queue of offers, but get cancelled within moments, before they are executed.

    Because if you (well, your algorithm) waits to see what trades are actually executed, you are behind. So you watch the queue of buy/sell orders, and put in orders in advance that you might decide to cancel a few milliseconds later.

    So algorithms execute fake orders to fool other algorithms. So algorithms expect orders will be fakes and try to guess what other algorithms are really up to.

    Soon it all turns into a headgame about the offers, a madness of algorithms trying to provoke buys and sells by offering to buy and sell.

    64:

    You are being disingenuous by conflating a shortage of STEM graduates with a shortage of STEM PhDs.

    I have no regrets about abandoning my PhD. But the Masters in Comp Sci that I picked up on the side has been great: not for the bit of laminated piece of paper but for the skills I learned getting it.

    There is a real shortage of good IT people, in most areas. From sysadmins to app developers to web designers to enterprise DBAs.

    Likewise in many STEM areas: practicing geologists are in demand, but does not mean lots of demand for more professors with geology PhDs. Engineers likewise, Food Tech people likewise.

    But I don't know what ecologists build. What industry job were you expecting?

    65:

    Is there really a shortage of scientists, engineers, and mathematicians? Probably not, with some few exceptions. Of course there fucking isn't. What they mean is we want people under 35 &/or foreigners or both, whom it is much easier to cheat & who won't ask awkward questions.

    I already had an HNC electronics & a BSc Physics - no employment, so I went & git an MSc in Engineering ( at age 44/45 ) I have had ZERO DAYS employment as a result of my qualifications - and "We can't get the trained staff"

    66:

    Pot Dichrom is very useful. Just be very careful, though.

    P.S. Zinc Dichromate is used as a corrosion inhibitor between Fe & Al based substances ( Like bolts in Land-Rovers ... )

    67:

    This is what frustrates me the most (see my earlier rant.) Certain parts of the media are vilifying and demonising the poor, migrants and anyone who goes against current public opinion, as well as sabotaging things that could be of real importance, all in the name of selling fear to the primitive parts of our brain. Add to this industries clouding the water on important issues for their own ends, with one industry going so far as to put a sympathetic President in place to screw up our entire planet for personal profit. These people are criminals and terrorists. They are not breaking the law or blowing people up, but they are doing far more damage. I am aware I'm getting dangerously close to conspiracy theory with all this, I know there is no single cohesive plan behind it all, just various people gaming the system for their own selfish need.

    68:

    Any advertising that relies on creating fear in order to sell products or engineer demand for new products. E.g. look at the history of listerine or toothpaste.

    69:

    I was thinking more that fistfights breaking out over who got a hood and who had to make do with holding their breath would create at least as many problems as they might have theoretically solved.

  • That's not generally how people behave in an emergency — especially towards family and neighbours (i.e. people they know).

  • BS certified smoke hoods cost £30 on amazon.co.uk. If you can buy it retail, it typically costs a third as much at the factory gate in Shenzhen in bulk, sometimes less; to provide 4 hoods per apartment for a 120-apartment block should thus cost on the order of £5000, i.e. peanuts (it's actually the amount the developers saved on Grenfell Tower by using cheap polystyrene-core cladding rather than rock wool insulation core cladding). Even if you add in the cost of 120 storage lockers (one per apartment) and another two lockers per floor, for 200-odd lockers as, say, £50 each (including paying a guy with a hammer drill for a month to fasten them to the walls) the total bill will be on the order of £10,000.

  • As the refurb bill for GT was over £10M, the cost of smoke hoods is basically lost in the noise (along with hiring portable toilets for the contractors). Even if you apply full retail cost, it adds only a couple of hundred quid to the price of each apartment. At that price there's no reason to underprovision the tower with smoke hoods and every reason to provide extras.

    70:

    You seem to be looking at smoke hoods with actual breathing gas supply for use aboard ships or planes. For building escape on land, it's basically a hood with a transparent visor and an activated charcoal filter good for a couple of minutes of keeping the toxic combustion products out of the wearer's lungs. An order of magnitude cheaper and doesn't require servicing (maybe recycle/replace every 5-10 years, but that's all).

    71:

    Yes. Not just confusing them, I had no idea these things existed.

    The only on land gear I knew about was either mine self rescue gear They're tiny gadgets you carry on your belt to get you out, but an order of magnitude more expensive than the escape hoods. (and they last for hours...)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-contained_self-rescue_device

    Or mine rescue gear big backpack gear that you use to go toward danger. They're an order of magnitude more expensive than the self rescue one.

    http://biopak240r.com/

    72:

    Actually that's an exaggeration. The Biopak 240 is only US$13000

    73:

    Yup, putting a sufficiency of Biopak 240 type devices in every tower block would be ... challenging.

    (But hoods with activated charcoal filters — cut-down gas masks — should be entirely affordable, in bulk.)

    74:

    Yep, absolutely. Even if they're a bit crap, they're still so much better than anything else that one might have to hand. I have no idea why they're not deployed exactly as you suggest.

    75:

    I have no idea why they're not deployed exactly as you suggest.

    My hypothesis: it's normalization of risk at work. Compare attitudes to drunk-driving/wearing of seatbelts fifty years ago, and the relative levels of injury and death duty to them then and now: we used to tolerate carnage on the roads from easily-preventable causes that could be addressed by socially enforced behavioural change (stigmatization of drink-driving) and simple training (always belt up before driving).

    Similarly, thousands of kids used to asphyxiate due to inhaling ballpoint pen caps, until an epidemiologist had the bright idea of manufacturing them with a 2mm hole in the end — not so big the ink would dry up, but big enough to let some air get through until first-aiders could remove the foreign object or apply a tracheotomy.

    Stuff we take for granted as part of the cost of living (lead-inhalation-induced crime waves, drink-driving, kids suffocating on pen caps, tuberculosis killing 30% of the urban population) becomes inconceivable a generation or two later once we stop normalizing it and change our behaviour accordingly. And then we get asshole politicians promising to "cut red tape" to make life "easier for business" because they've normalized the state of people not dying of this shit, and have forgotten what the red tape is there for (to prevent idiots cladding tower blocks in rocket fuel and ripping out all the firewalls).

    76:

    Is there really a shortage of scientists, engineers, and mathematicians? Probably not, with some few exceptions. Of course there fucking isn't.

    Beg to differ - there's a shortage of good scientists, engineers, and mathematicians - but then, you never have enough "good people" for the jobs available.

    I've conducted interviews for various engineering firms; all too often, the applicant just hasn't got the skills needed (soft, technical, or both) and doesn't realise it (but, but, I've got a degree!).

    What they mean is we want people under 35 &/or foreigners or both, whom it is much easier to cheat & who won't ask awkward questions... I have had ZERO DAYS employment as a result of my qualifications

    Please don't take this the wrong way, Greg (not having met you in person), but have you considered that it might not be your technical skills, but that you might come across as a challenging individual to manage? The "atypical" will always come off as a risk at interview, and one man's "awkward questions" are another's "he just won't listen"

    I'm 50, and have been in permanent employment as an engineer over the thirty years since graduation (bar five months after the 2002 bursting of the telecoms bubble). Two years ago, I had grey hair and a lived-in face, and was interviewed by two younger engineers for my current post - no-one has ever suggested that I'm "too old", or "too expensive", or "not foreign enough". My last job was alongside 40-odd engineers, most of similar age and experience, and the site ran a constant search for high-quality candidates (they've had one software job open for several months now, and they pay top-decile wages).

    77:

    People commenting on fire safety in UK high-rise, please note: the fire brigade does know how to fight high-rise fires. I heard one fire brigade spokesperson say that they deal with two or three fires every week in residential high-rise in London. Almost all of them are contained within a single flat and put out quickly and without casualty. Grenfell Tower was different for several reasons, of which one is very well known (the combustible cladding) and others less so. For example, apparently the dry riser was inoperable! A "dry riser" is a pipe running up through a building into which water can be pumped at high pressure at the base of the building, usually by the pump in a fire appliance: hoses on each floor are - or can be - connected to it. This was attested in several eyewitness interviews on the day, but has strangely disappeared down the memory hole; presumably the public inquiry will cast some light on it. If true, this is a really big deal: it meant the fire brigade was completely unable to douse the fire on the upper stories, and basically had to let it burn out (so in pictures of the fire you can see appliances spraying water from the outside up to the 6th or 7th story, rather than water being sprayed from the inside, all the way up the building). If somebody in a position of authority (e.g. at RBKC or KCTMO) decided to make or leave the dry riser inoperable, that person should (and plausibly will) go to jail for a long time. Of course this story indicates a single-point-of-failure which is bad: buildings should have various fire protection systems in place to cope with a busted dry riser, and large fire brigades should have equipment to substitute for an inoperable riser. But to paint the picture as "ha ha, UK clueless about fire safety" is wrong-headed. Chilling listen here, from about 14:50: two fire experts and a journalist look at a tower block in Newham.

    78:

    we used to tolerate carnage on the roads from easily-preventable causes

    Used to? When did you stop, in the UK? I can tell you for a fact that down here in Australia we still enthusiastically embrace the "right" to speed, follow too close, talk on the phone while driving and so on while calling the deaths that inevitably follow "the road toll"... down here every road is a toll road.

    79:

    ...and because the professors are so busy making money that they don't have time to teach...

    For clarity, I assume that these are US universities? I wonder whether your assertions are a US cultural thing that shouldn't be treated as a universal truth.

    While I'm thirty years away from University (and accept that it may have been unusual, or that things may have changed for the worse), I still remember getting undergraduate lectures from some seriously heavyweight researchers. Peter Denyer (developed the first practical digital camera) ran a really good lecture course in the EE Department; Robin Milner (a Turing Award winner) lectured on undergraduate courses in the CS department; I had Sidney Michaelson as a tutor in my first year.

    80:

    the site ran a constant search for high-quality candidates (they've had one software job open for several months now, and they pay top-decile wages).

    Same here. We may shortly be looking to hire and management are already crying into their beer about the cost and time required to find someone. I alternate between feeling underpaid and looking at the national income distribution and feeling vaguely guilty. Albeit I'm at the upper quintile rather than decile because my boss has an issue with paying anyone six figures (yes, I get paid very close to $99,999).

    That said, we also have rather too many companies operating on exactly the level Greg talks about. I have been to a "group interview" for a senior software engineer role. There are companies around who are notorious for providing the initial year or two experience to new graduates who leave as soon as they can find a better job.

    This article has a wee gimmick to let you guess where your household income puts you in the rankings. Sadly, as with all such things, it does not work for share houses. Viz, when your household is composed of independent adults the number is extremely misleading. Six people earning the median wage puts you in the top 20% of household incomes, for example, or twice that many on the dole. It's only slightly better for households with employed, adult "children" living at home and multi-generational households ("traditional marriages") in general.

    81:

    Many social media companies have been accused of inflating user numbers, which amounts to a fraud on investors.

    I dimly recall allegations of pre-tinder dating sites flooding (hetero-) sites with phony sock puppet accounts featuring photos of attractive women, either to create a misleading impression of gender balance when most genuine users were male, or to keep male users on the hook and paying subscription fees. There might have been some basic interactivity from either cheap third world call centre labour or very crude bots offering some sweet talk to the suckers.

    In those cases it's company insiders fleecing investors and users, but with sufficiently sophisticated bots, plus maybe a dash of click fraud, an outside scammer could inflate a company's user numbers and growth rate, run the stock price up, then short before yanking the bots and watching the stock tank.

    82:

    If it bleeds it leads has led to a form of crying fire in the media. By constantly presenting cases of extreme violence culled from an entire country without giving any statistical context the media has led the viewing public to believe that crime is at an all time high domestically when it is actually the opposite. That is a form of crying fire for money.

    83:

    You could, actually have a point there ... except for one slight problem.

    Getting to "the interview" in the first place.

    The Human Remains departments automatically weed out all the oldies & 50% of the women, even before starting to think about interviews.

    84:

    Backwards into ignorance & superstition I assume the USA won't be far behind? [ Let's not mention the DUP, either! ]

    85:

    Not my experience from either side of the recuitment process.

    I entered employment as an engineer with my current employer aged 52 (after about 20 years of contracting, which I was regulalrly informed made me unemployable on a permanent basis in itself!), since then I've interviewed, recommended offers to, and seen offers accepted by people older than myself on a regular basis.

    I'm still getting regular approaches for (admittedly quite senior) "hands on" engineering positions from headhunters now some 5 years later and (while some have expressed a degree of nervousness) others in my age cohort seem to be managing OK too.

    86:

    One similar to the example in the start to the thread . A Conservative PM is well ahead in the polls, two years in to a five year term. A consortium shorts the future positions of companies that do very well out of having tories in power. Privatised utilities, railways, outsourcing companies, health companies and so on. PM calls a totally unneccessary general election, then proceeds to deliberately throw it. Robotic repeatative no answers in interviews. Avoiding any contact with ordinary unwashed voters. A manifesto that has no carrots, only more sticks and targets the biggest group of voters likely to support them by potentially confiscating their houses. Election lost. Profit!

    Perhaps the reason why Theresa May has been looking so glum these last couple of weeks is that she failed and is still PM.

    87:

    Of course, this assumes that markets don't just take a default position that most users are bots.

    cough twitter cough

    88:

    I assume the USA won't be far behind? This is off topic, but so are many comments. No, not at the national level, at least not without a fight. Turkey is the only major country where creationism/evolution denialism is more prevalent than the US (at least in 2008) and they are going down that route because of their current consolidation of power at the top. [clipped detailed discussion of US dynamics in past, since pre-300]

    There is probably a good summary treatment of this in the US legal literature but I haven't found it (very cursory search). Here are a few links: US states consider laws allowing Creationism to be taught by science teachers and a long wikipedia article with a pile of references (edit history is useful): Creation and evolution in public education in the United States

    89:

    Nope.

    Or I wouldn't keep getting emails from headhunters eager to place me somewhere, for the commission it would bring them...

    90:

    Moz: reported road casualties in GB.

    Not eliminated, but reduced significantly — to about a third of their peak level (during WW2, when blackout was enforced and drivers weren't used to it).

    Using a non-hands-free phone behind the wheel now carries a six point penalty (twelve to lose your license) and a hefty fine; if Theresa May hadn't cut police numbers by 30% it might even be enforced broadly.

    91:

    Perhaps the reason why Theresa May has been looking so glum these last couple of weeks is that she failed and is still PM.

    Nope. The reason May is still PM is that right now the job is such a poisoned chalice that none of her own party rivals want to take it away from her! They're all waiting for the Brexit wagon to explode in flames before they step in and (they hope) rescue it. Or failing that, lose gracefully to the Other Mob, who can be conveniently blamed for it when the idiots who voted for it realize how bad it is.

    Seriously, no Tory politician in their right mind would want to be PM right now. It's a nightmare, and May made it her own.

    92:

    So what? I had a couple of future presidential advisors for my lecturers at UC Berkeley. They weren't the best teachers I had, although they were far from the worst.

    While we don't have the British equivalent of a tutor, in the US, the professors mostly lecture. While I happen to enjoy lecturing, it's one of the more inefficient methods of education around, because there's little feedback from the students to help you tailor your teaching to make sure each student gets it. Nowadays they're replacing lectures with videos.

    The most effective form of teaching is one-on-one, aka tutoring, but it's massively too expensive for mass education. In US schools, you typically have one grad student TA for every 20-24 students, plus a professor/lecturer for the whole class. It's rare but not unheard-of for a professor to take one of the TA slots, and these are typically upper division classes.

    Is this suboptimal? Of course it is. I've tutored kids and taught them in an afternoon more than they learned in class (lecture and lab) in a month. The problem is money. Schools can't lose too much money on a class and keep offering it. They have to cover lab costs and pay the teachers, and professors cost a lot more per hour than do grad students. Therefore, the optimal way to teach is to minimize the professors' time, put as much as possible on the grad students, and minimize lab costs.

    Now they're even experimenting with remote learning systems (cf MOOCs and their successors) to lower costs still further. Something like a MOOC might work great in, say, computer science, but I don't want to have a surgeon who learned human anatomy in a MOOC operating on me, nor do I want county plant pathologists who have only seen pathogens on the screen looking for pests in the field.

    I'm picking on these two (out of many) because human cadavers for teaching labs are always in short supply (and need regular maintenance or they rot), and programs like plant pathology and entomology are disappearing all over the country, because it's expensive to maintain the teaching collections and the university CEOs (I'm using that term deliberately) cannot pencil out why they should maintain any expensive specialist programs that only a few people use. The answer is to prevent famine, but preventing famine doesn't get a budget line unless there's a federal program backstopping the costs.

    That, incidentally, answers why education ecologists of all stripes is dropping: it's expensive to maintain real teaching labs, and while everyone except the oil industry and some developers can see the need, guess who's funding the Republican party, who in turn are making decisions on the state and national levels?

    93:

    Bingo!

  • I have a B.Sc in comp & inf sci. I started programming in '80. Between end of July '01 and Jan '06, I worked a TOTAL of about 6 mos (one of which I'll never get paid for). And the longer you're out of work, the less recruiters want to talk to you. Around '04 or so, I literally had an asshole tell me I "wasn't fresh". I was so mad, esp. since the job specs seemed like it was written for me, personally, I hauled back, and hit her with, "so, if you took a year off to have a kid, would you no longer ever be employable in your field, because you 'weren't fresh'? She had the grace to be taken aback and apologize.
  • And HR are 90% staffed by ignorant assholes. The worst I saw, when I was looking in '09, was Grumman, who didn't want a cover letter, wanted to slurp up your resume (doc only, of course), and they said on the web page they'd do a FUCKING DATABASE SEARCH FOR PRIME CANDIDATES!!!!!!!

  • Absolutely, they don't want to pay for qualified. Just a couple years ago, a guy who'd worked for Oracle, Indian, sued Oracle, when he found out about an email from upper management saying "we can pay him $10k US less than other folks doing the same job".

  • About training... https://krebsonsecurity.com/2017/06/why-so-many-top-hackers-hail-from-russia/ and Brian Krebs is one of, if not the, most respected security journalist in the US. Among his notes is that in Russia, EVERY middle school and high school have classes, required and optional. In the US, of 42k high schools, about 2100 of them have anything.

  • 94:

    Charlie, I hadn't thought of why Russia was after the US this way. I was thinking that reason #1 was to pay us back for what we, and the West, did to the USSR. The positive economic impact, along with the negative of payback, and weakening of the US and the West (did they do something for Leave?), would certainly explain it.

    95:

    But mostly, big Pharma doesn't want to develop vaccines. Big expense of development, and then one shot, and it's done. They like something you need to keep paying for.

    A year or two ago, one big company was denied a patent in India because it was no better than their existing drug... which was about to go out of patent. Think of the billions, or at least hundreds of millions, to develop that waste of time.

    96:

    You wrote: p.s.

    You're watching The United States of America die, right now, as it happens, if you're paying attention.

    On MSNBC today, excerpt: "in the morning. "Morning Joe" co-host Mika Brzezinski said Friday that it feels like there is a "dictatorship developing" in the United States, prompting co-host Joe Scarborough to suggest she should not say that out loud. <...> I will say, you can do some work reading history, and reading books about how dictatorships happen, the development of very negative forces taking over, and what you are seeing is either this happening right now, or someone who's not well. There's very few options." --- end excerpt ---

    http://freebeacon.com/politics/brzezinski-feels-like-a-dictatorship-developing-in-u-s/

    We're on a fucking knife edge.

    97:

    I've been referring to it as the "post-Adamic society" (no longer need to earn your living by the sweat of your brow)), and trying to get people to talk about it for literally 20+ years. It's only in the last year or two that people are starting.

    Note that there's almost ZERO consideration of what the hell we do with our lives when we're not working to stay alive....

    98:

    Dunno... I don't think you mentioned the folks who are ahead of all of that, which are the ones who have their servers within blocks of the exchanges, and so can beat out everyone else by micro or nanoseconds, since speed of light does come into play.

    99:

    On academia as ponzi scheme: yeah, a bit. [I run a US-academic neuroscience lab at a public university.] The research funding requires data, which requires grad students, who require money (although to be fair not much); also rats, who cost rather more. And yes, the institition is (increasingly) focussed on specifically federal grants, which carry large overhead costs.

    But: my salary doesn't rely on bringing in grants; I teach [me, personally - ALL the classes are faculty, not grad students; and this has been true at all of my institutions, from Ivies on down] and generally to small classes [15-30; only the 100-level intro classes are huge.] Teaching is a big part of promotion and tenure, albeit not as big as $$. I am very open about job and career prospects in the field, especially for my PhD students - but to be fair, all my lab alumni do have well-paid, interesting jobs in the field. Not as dire, yet, as the post would suggest.

    100:

    It isn't impossible that she will lose the vote on the Queen's speech, which will force her to offer her resignation (unless she chooses to ignore protocol). What happens then? More likely, she will lose a vote on the Great Repeal Bill or similar, which will be even more confusing.

    101:

    Please delete this if you don't want to follow this path, but one classic, generic example of what you say is the Big Lie. The latest one is the Saudi Arabia / Israel / USA claim that Iran is behind most 'Islamic' terrorism (fill in the rest). It looks as if Trump gave Saudi Arabia the go-ahead to attack Qatar (a neutral), because it will not play ball, and said that he would take action if Iran supported Qatar. And similarly for Israel and Gaza, though that is merely a humanitarian disgrace, not a military one.

    102:

    I am not enough of an academic or student of the field to speak on the subject with any sort of authority but I have thought for some time that higher or tertiary education (ObUS: post-K12) is structurally broken.

    The classic college/university degree granted for several years of study after examination is a marker of education rather than learning and I'm not sure that education is actually much use outside an educational institute (such as a university). Traditionally unless a degree holder stays within the educational world as a tutor, lecturer and/or researcher the degree itself doesn't seem worth the dollar price ticket. Outside the cloistered halls today the degree per se is often seen as a simple marker for ability to learn and frankly it isn't even very good in that limited role.

    Vocational schools that aren't academic but have the cachet of the top educational establishments might be the answer. A two-year certificate course (24 months of targetted mostly-practical syllabus) on, say, system engineering would be cheaper and more desirable for many employers than a three or four year informatics degree even with a six-month internship or secondment in industry. Sure the informatics degree will be wider in scope and produce a more well-rounded individual but that's not what will pay back the student loans when the CV rubber hits the HR road, assuming that posited 24-month certificate fits employer's needs as well or better.

    The bad news is that any such vocational schools don't have that cachet for various reasons. The price might be part of the problem, being too cheap to be regarded as worthwhile by many on both sides of the interview table.

    103:

    Somewhat on topic, but not sure Host is above crying Fire! himself.

    Dare you look? GO ON SCROLL DOWN I DARES YE!

    1 shaft, 4 heads: The echidna’s penis. PYGMY LORIS, blog (good one), July 2012. NSFW if you're bothered by animal willies.

    And yes, there's a video.

    Note: #1 The male appendage is remarkably sized for the size of the critter (at least, as well as I understand such things), #2 It's prehensile! It moves around like it's searching for warmth! Cute![1] #3 Happiest looking echidnas we've seen, his face is all like "Ohhh Yeah, tickle me right there".

    There's weirder ones:

    On average, the songs of M. scholtzi reached 78.9 decibels, comparable to a passing freight train.

    'Singing penis' sets noise record for water insect BBC June 2011

    However, this one is the strangest / most Alien, imo. It's literally a multi-stage grab and deliver system (has pictures):

    P. cuulong is the most recently discovered species of 22 known priapiumfish, a family whose males have replaced their penises with muscular priapia, formed from the modified bones of the pectoral and pelvic fins. In addition to an anal opening and a genital pore, the priapium includes a rod and a serrated hook for grabbing a female’s head to keep her throat, and its oviduct opening, close to the genital pore.

    Meet Phallostethus cuulong, The Fish With Elaborate, Multi-Part Genitals On Its Chin Discover Magazine, July 2012.

    On a related to topic note, "weird penis" is BIG, HUUUGE SEO gold. So many many pages, so many top ten lists.

    [1] Replacing prior bets on cat / fox ears / genes, this is the biomedical startup that will make billions. Prehensile willies are the future[2]

    [2] Not even joking: Men, we need to talk about sperm Guardian 23rd June 2017

    [3] Hidden in all this shlock (well: cuteness but I'm sure this response might vary) Worldwide revenue of Pfizer's Viagra from 2003 to 2016 (in million U.S. dollars) Statistica - although the profit is only $1.8 bil / year (averaged), it effectively doubled the companies stock price on launch, even though it's only its 6th largest sales product.

    When Viagra was launched in 1998, Pfizer's share price doubled. It was apparent that there was a huge previously untapped market out there.

    Viagra: the hard sell BBC, 2005

    TL;DR

    Willies work as a major Fire! Hose of profitability.

    104:

    The speed of light is roughly 30 centimetres (one foot in old money) per nanosecond.

    The real high frequency traders compete brutally for adjacent slots in the same rack as the exchange backbone, never mind being within a block of the exchange!

    105:

    Right. Actually, the effective delay is several nanoseconds a foot, because the transmission speed in copper (used within racks) is about half the limit, and most protocols need a round trip. Using optical fibre doesn't help, because of the delays in the conversion logic.

    106:

    And similarly for Israel and Gaza, though that is merely a humanitarian disgrace, not a military one.

    Well, that's a first - me being more critical of a military than you ;)

    When I saw some of the early news footage of Operation CAST LEAD, I nearly shouted at the TV - because what I saw was unequivocally the use of White Phosphorous in a built-up area. That was the point (to me) that the Israeli Army lost its claim to holding the moral high ground.

    You do not call smoke missions without knowing exactly what is going to arrive on target (emission smoke or "instant" smoke, i.e. WP). You do not call for fire missions into a densely built-up area and call it "surgical", or "precise", or any other euphemism that suggests that any resulting civilian deaths are somehow not your fault.

    Don't get me wrong; I'm not suggesting that artillery is never appropriate. I'm suggesting that Gaza City, unevacuated, with a UN compound in the middle of the target area, is not the place to employ an area weapon. Any army officer who ordered such a fire mission, or allowed it to be ordered; should IMHO have been sacked as unfit, if not prosecuted.

    It was a military disgrace.

    107:

    Some (perhaps all?) exchanges give every rack on a co-location floor a cable that is the same length, to equalize all such customers. The stories I heard were one-customer-per-rack, perhaps not always true.

    First source I found in a quick search; it will do: You'd Better Know Your High-Frequency Trading Terminology Interestingly, an exchange’s co-location clients receive the same amount of cable length regardless of where they are located within the exchange premises, so as to ensure that they have the same latency.

    108:

    I should clarify - Sabra and Shatila could be argued to be a sin of omission. The shelling of various UN Compounds, and resulting deaths of UN Observers; or beating up rock-throwers, could almost (almost) be put down to the incompetence of a conscript army. Employing a laser-guided weapon against a specific building in a city can even be claimed to be "precision".

    However, firing unguided artillery into a densely-populated area (as opposed to a chunk of countryside) is not something that can be waved away with claims of "it was the fault of Hamas".

    109:

    It was a military disgrace.

    I should like to note that the Gaza Strip as a whole has about the same land area as Leeds (minus suburbs) ... and about double the population. In other words, it's equivalent to a British city for population density — way denser than an American city, unless you look at something like downtown Chicago or Manhattan.

    So yeah: unguided artillery into a densely populated urban area. And you bet the officers commanding the batteries in question aren't conscripts (the IDF upper levels want to get rid of conscription, and the officer corps is entirely professional these days).

    110:

    Sabra and Shatila could be argued to be a sin of omission I'm curious; how could Sabra and Shatila be argued as a sin of omission? Not interested in a full re-litigation, just curious since you're military and might have an argument I haven't heard before.

    111:

    OK, giggled out loud. Are you aware of the work on reproductive isolation (and resulting speciation) due to divergent genital morphology? (First heard about this with dragonflies.) 170 Years of “Lock-and-Key”: Genital Morphology and Reproductive Isolation (2012) In this paper, I present a brief history of the “lock-and-key” hypothesis, summarize the evidence for the involvement of genital morphology in different mechanisms of reproductive isolation, discuss progress in identifying the molecular and genetic bases of species differences in genital morphology, and discuss prospects for future work on the role of genitalia in speciation.

    112:

    Australia has reduced our toll by a factor of three since 1970, but that's still throwing another 1200 bodies on the pile every year. The UK only killing 2000-odd a year is significantly better but it depends a great deal on which end you look at it from. The 2000 or 1200 are still dead.

    You're saying "yay, fewer!", I'm saying "there's so many obvious things that could lower that".

    Sadly the obvious things aren't easy (because our road operators are not idiots). The problems are social rather than technical, most obviously the regular campaigns against speed limits, but we have worse issues with emissions than you do, and the same stupid arguments about the inevitability of deaths when idiots are encouraged to behave dangerously. "Top Gear" being one long advertisement for the joys of killing people, for example.

    As someone who has chosen not to drive, in part because of the human cost of doing so, it peeves me that almost everyone else so vigorously defends their right to impose that cost on me.

    113:

    how could Sabra and Shatila be argued as a sin of omission?

    Just guessing here, but: the camp massacres happened when the Israeli army didn't go in, but allowed their allies — Lebanese phalangist militias — access to the camps. The IDF could have prevented (and arguably had a duty to prevent) the massacres, in other words, but didn't actually carry them out.

    Bombarding the Gaza Strip with artillery ... nope, they totally owned that, no excuses.

    114:

    And I think you're pointing out why the old-school epidemiologists (plant and animal, possibly human), as well as the old-school field biologists, are getting shown the door. For example, plant pathology departments are either getting shut down or turned into purely molecular facilities, because pure lab work has massively higher overhead and faster through-put than field experiments.

    What I did in grad school would never work in academia now: my experiments took a solid year to set up and run, per replicate (I was working on greenhouse microcosms where I had to grow plants and mycorrhizal fungi in different combinations). There's a need to know that kind of stuff, but since it was cheap, slow, and took up a lot of space, it's not as cost-effective as something that's compact, expensive, and fast, because the latter generates more grants. The budget I used on one project was about equivalent to what some of the bigger molecular labs would use to train an undergrad intern on some new procedure (I found this out by chatting with said undergrad while we happened to be working in the same lab).

    Now we could sigh about the good old days, and I'll admit that not a lot of people are interested in doing better ecological restorations (where you need those big, slow experiments). Still, I'd gently suggest that everybody should be worried about a shortage of trained epidemiologists and entomologists. California alone is seeing 75 new pest insects hitting the state every year. Most of them don't establish very well, but every once in a while we get a polyphagous shot hole borer.

    And there's another, critical question: where's all that overhead money going? Who profits with costs growing well in excess of inflation?

    115:

    You're saying "yay, fewer!", I'm saying "there's so many obvious things that could lower that".

    You know that in the 19th century roughly 30% of the UK urban population died of tuberculosis, right?

    TB was pandemic in part due to poor sanitation, damp housing, and people living cheek-by-jowl with urban horses which were a huge TB reservoir. It went into decline before vaccination really got going thanks to the rise of the automobile.

    3000 road deaths a year is tragic, but doesn't really compare to 300,000 people a year asphyxiating as their lungs disintegrated inside them, does it?

    See, back then dying of TB was "normal" — see the whole pre-Raphaelite shtick — and in the 20th century, a lot of people dying in traffic accidents was also "normal", just as in the 18th century small-sword dueling was "normal".

    Normal is not the same as inevitable.

    116:

    Yes, but I'm now 71, not 61 (!)

    117:

    Yes, the Lebanese christians did all the killing, but it WUZ the EVVILLL JEWS who were to blame (!) Or so went the left-wing propaganda at the time, anyway. Don't care, actually, it was still a war crime ( I think )

    118:

    Yes, the Lebanese christians did all the killing,... Oh, fwiw I agree that the anti-Israel arguments for this particular case were pretty weak. I think that era was my first knowing exposure to polished competing arguments from competing narratives honed over decades. (A Zionist girlfriend patiently and honestly explained the narratives.)

    119:

    I'm curious; how could Sabra and Shatila be argued as a sin of omission? Not interested in a full re-litigation, just curious since you're military

    For clarity, ex-reservist. I wouldn't want to portray myself as anything more.

    The Kahan Commission summed it up - you could argue cognitive bias, fatigue, incompetence on the part of the IDF units nearby - as "indirect responsibility". They weren't pulling triggers; but they looked the other way.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kahan_Commission

    http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/the-kahan-commission-of-inquiry

    120:

    I'm somewhat aware of the basics of it, it's not really a specialty. But sure, I understand the way in which mass differentiation occurs (radial niches, sexual selection pressures etc). I skimmed that piece, I'll do a refresher soon.

    I was far more interested in the male responses to body horror (sigh, someone mentioned pregnancy as symbiotic parasite, not accurate, -10k points for the obvious mistake): to spell it out - if you simply google "echidna penis", the majority of the pictures (barring one splendid artistic rendition with some frankly homoerotic angle and coloring which is almost certainly a #rule34 piece of work rather than a text book illustration: this one[1] (NSFW - it's a picture of a weird willy, alright?) are flaccid and limp / hanging.

    Which means, if you've not watched the video, you've no idea at the actual body horror potential / cuteness. Having watched the video, men could then imagine their own penises (if they physically have one (insert gender discussion somewhere else for once)) playing by the same rules. (Oh, and Cthulhu isn't about sexual horror, which Alien 100% is. If you wanted to get psychological / Freudian horror it'd be that your animated penis and you fell in love with each other in a narcissistic pairing. But I digress, these are the tiny tot terrors that lower Minds fear[2]).

    ~

    Back on topic: Fire! Derivatives Again (which will tie into weird penises):

    Derivatives market is short of a $3.7tn lifeboat FT, Feb 10th, 2017

    Are we heading toward another subprime mortgage crisis? CNN, Mar 15th, 2017

    Chair’s letter to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors ahead of their Baden-Baden meeting FSB, 17th Mar, 2017

    How a GOP bill could cause the next financial crisis Politico, 26th April, 2017

    Semiannual OTC derivatives statistics BIS, 6th June, 2017

    Exchange-traded futures and options, by currency BIS, 6th June, 2017 - PDf, 1 page. Take a looooong hard look at the growth going on there.

    In finance terms, this !FIRE! is like an echidna penis. Very few know they exist, and those who do (and consider the risks attached) usually only really consider the flaccid, limp one which (DRUM-ROLL PUNCHLINE) they imagine functions like their penis (insert: finance / banking sector), only with four valves / tubes instead of one.

    The issue is, of course: the people who watch the video / read the actual stats know that they're actually a prehensile, self-motile, almost sentient snake monster that actively seeks out warm flesh on its own (seriously: go look at the video - the animal is blissed out, totally passive while the motile penis probes the air and spooky bit: avoids the hand grasping the animal...[4])

    This is an excellent analogy of central banks (blissed out passive) vrs derivatives (not under anyone's real control, waaaarp flesh beastie looking for love).

    And yeah: $222 trillion or so[3] (go look at the PDFs, +16 in 3 months compared to +3 in 12 months prior is not exactly mild)

    TL;DR

    Men fear the implied body-horror without watching the actual version. It's much much worse; that's the actual !FIRE! one that will either make you a billionaire, or blow the world up (again).

    And yes: Global First - Derivatives and Enchinda Penis analogy, totally checks out, solid.

    FreddyMercuryDabbPose2017

    [1] The humorous thing here is that it's from a website. I quote:

    Many mammals have penises that are more impressive than human penises, however, the echidna takes the cake. Despite many larger animals having large penises, smaller animals have more interesting penises. Some are corkscrews, some have barbs, and some, like the echidna, have multiple heads.

    I have never really understood the reason for this, and would be interested in being educated about penises.

    Are there any resident experts on penises? inb4RC

    http://sep7agon.net/the-flood/(nsfw)-penis-thread-(for-science)/ (Yes: that's a gaming forum. Literally the best art work for enchinda penises is on a gaming forum.)

    [2] No, really. "When models go bad, cost you much, it will".

    [3] From memory / cba to open up more files until after lunch. It's probably more by now.

    [4] 100% true. Watch the video. Next time you look down... it might wink back.

    122:

    And, since we're doing body horror: this is why you don't put sentient mammals in tiny pools because they get bored and go a bit whacky / insane: Dolphin self masturbates with beheaded fish YT: reality, 0:44.

    Look at the title: it's NSFW. Yes, it's a fish being used as a fleshlight by a dolphin (actually one of the kinds without the most prehensile penises, but that's irony for you). And yes, the human put a comedy sound track on it. And yes: I now know waaaaay too much about prehensile penises now.

    Bonus round:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/cospenis/ NSFW: REALLY, DOES WHAT IT SAYS ON THE TIN. There is an entire community devoted to placing their appendages into costumes. What's genius is that you can tell the plucky amateurs (some using black marker pens which !?!?!?!!) against the actual professionals: My GF said I need to be more thoughtful and stop thinking with my dick. So I made her a thoughtful calendar for her birthday. [NSFW] Imgur, 12 images. Brilliant design / inventive backdrops, NSFW. July / September favorites, but of course January is Trump.

    Oh, and there's a sub-set who enjoy literal puppetry rather than just dress up (dolphin tie-in) but I fear this might be all too much.

    TL;DR

    You humans are weird.

    123:

    (And no: if you've not noticed, neither an expert on willies nor derivatives. However, it appears not many are, including the ones playing around with them)

    124:

    Apologies for the flood, but really:

    You just got an echidna penis dodging the hand of the market joke coupled with derivatives blowing up the world economy.

    (And the best part: both are true).

    125:

    Having watched the video, men could then imagine their own penises (if they physically have one (insert gender discussion somewhere else for once)) playing by the same rules. Since you asked, watched (NSFW has meaning even if not using work network); not bothered in the slightest, and a bit curious about what it would be like to have one of those. There is a small bit of autonomy even in the human male apparatus. Yeah, I can see enormous piles of [money-of-future] if retrofits are possible, marketed using fears of inadequacy.
    Anyway, at least as interesting was the bit about sperm races as a team sport, with multitudes of small 100-sperm teams from up to 10 males competing. (Found One‐Sided Ejaculation of Echidna Sperm Bundles - Sperm bundling appears to confer increased sperm motility, which may provide the potential for sperm competition between males.)

    I am also reminded of the start of Riders of the Purple Wage, Dangerous Visions, Phillip Jose Farmer, collection curated by Harlan Ellison, 1967 (need to reread in full, interesting story collection): Prehensile, the penisnake wraps itself around the brush and begins to paint. ... Furiously, proboscisean, it builds up another figure layer by layer. Then, it sniffs a musty odor of must and drops the brush and slides out the door and down the bend of wall of oval hall, describing the scrawl of legless creatures, a writing in the sand which all may read but few understand. Google books has more, and there is a pdf probably not legal so no link but a search on text will find it. Also, Stanislaw Lem treated post-human sexual morphology fads in The Star Diaries (or maybe a sequel) and then there is the infamous first line of Steel Beach. ("'In five years the penis will be obsolete', said the salesman")

    126:

    But, it the GOP's shortsighted greed triggers a n other financial crisis, then they will get the blame & really be thrown out this time ( If they are lucky that is, & don't end up as lamp-post decorations ) Or are they so greedy that they don't care/notice?

    127:

    Don't go there ...

    Awful ancient joke cartoon ..

    Two sperms swimming away, ok? Speech bubbles:

    S1: "Phew I'm tired, how much further?" S2: "Long way to go to the uterus, I'm afraid, we've only just passed the tonsils" (!)

    128:

    That FT link is blocked by their unusually sophisticated paywall.

    The CNN piece is interesting, but should be taken with a pinch of salt.

    "Now, with its huge portfolio of mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie and Freddie, the Fed gives aid and comfort to the affordable housing lobby that created the subprime mortgage mess and the financial crisis. . .

    . . .Before the crisis, there was some market discipline, however imperfect it was, because potential buyers of mortgages would look at their quality carefully.

    No expertise here, but this is a right wing canard, put about by those who regard market failure as an impossibility. Yes, government mortgage guarantees drive up house prices and Fannie and Freddie were horribly mismanaged pre-GFC, but the crisis was overwhelmingly driven by the cesspit of fraud, moral hazard and willful blindness on Wall street. The idea that anyone was carefully scutinising mortgages is laughable. If they were, it was a handful of sharp players looking to game the models of the ratings agencies when bundling mortgages for securitised bonds, or short the market. Naive mortgage backed bond buyers relied on the ratings agencies' AAA stamp on toxic junk.

    129:

    There has been quite a bit of consideration of what we do on retirement, and when going half-time in preparation for it.

    Various SF authors have considered it.

    I make photographs, garden a little, read (which requires that someone wrote) and can imagine a lot of people doing inefficient food production and preparation and art of various sorts in their discretional time.

    And there is sport.

    130:

    CNN is propaganda - literally. Perhaps the only place where Trump and I share thoughts.

    Anyhow, this is the !FIRE! call apparently:

    On Wednesday, Banco Santander stepped in to take over Popular for 1 euro, leaving stock and bondholders with losses of about 3.3 billion euros after regulators -- saying the bank was failing -- sought a rescue that would avoid a taxpayer bailout. Santander Chairman Ana Botin named Chief Financial Officer Jose Cantera to replace Saracho as chairman of what is now its Popular unit.

    Mission Impossible: Saving Banco Popular Too Much for Saracho Bloomberg, 7th June, 2017

    You can hit your doom pr0n needs with a piece from The Economic Collapse blog: The Next Financial Crisis Has Already Arrived In Europe, And People Are Starting To Freak Out ECB, June 12th, 2017 - useful because of link aggregation (and, of course: the sky has been falling continuously there since 2008, so, bucket of salt required). Interesting piece on Illinois there, apparently their budget process has entirely broken down after 700+ days without a passed budget. (More GOP / Dem civil war to blame).

    TL;DR

    Same old issues, same old domino effect, same old reasons.

    Link to crackpot site (that might not actually be as crackpot as it appears, looks like Prof Abraham J. Briloff actually spent retirement there as a hobby) that has obsessive links (and no adverts): ASSOCIATION FOR ACCOUNTANCY AND BUSINESS AFFAIRS AABA blog - yellow & blue text, the go-to for webdesign of the overly-focused. Has some interesting links on Sandstorm and lots of Qatar / UAE / UK web tracing. Which may-or-may-not be relevant to the current trends there.

    131:

    Greg I have similar educational experience to you. ONC medical laboratory science,,BSc chemistry, MSc Clinical Biochemistry at age 40. Without the MSc I wouldn't have even been shortlisted for my last job.

    132:

    I got my last job at the age of 53. Perhaps the NHS are more enlightened than private employers. Any interviews I've been involved with on the other side only used HR as a backup. HR had nothing to do with shortlisting apart from preparing a longlist which included all sorts of hopeless applications. At the interviews the single HR interviewer dealt with legal and similar aspects of the job and also had extensive interviewing experience which was sometimes useful in discussions after the interviews when deciding who should be offered the jobs. On the other hand my wife trained as an early years teacher in her forties but despite lots of work in supply with head teachers asking for her to return she never got a permanent job because at the time there was a surplus of newly qualified teachers in their twenties who could be paid much less because of their age.

    133:

    If the U.S. had been run by the Bush or Trump government in 1941, we've have responded to Pearl Harbor by invading Brazil!

    134:

    I was thinking other day about Robert Mercer and how he made his fortune with a supposedly market bearing trading software. What's the connection beteeen that skill set and Psyops for military?

    I'm wondering if it is disinformation - planting stories in Moneyweek, etc, psychological manipulation of the market.

    135:

    Likewise I remember a really good elementary Linear Algebra course taught by Professor Andrew Wiles (in 1987, before he became world-famous, but still. Prof. John Horton Conway, eg, also taught courses at my school; it was assumed. This in the USA, by the way.)

    136:

    Oh, I don't know - I work in an eight-story office block; there are two shielded staircases for evacuation. In the six-monthly unannounced fire drills, we're generally all out well within five minutes, if not much sooner. Not bad for three or four hundred office staff. (Being a helpful sod, I've just done the "evacuation chair" training that allows us to get an immobile person down a staircase; impressive piece of kit.)

    In the three-storey building at my previous place, we were normally clear, accounted for, and consulting with the other firms' lead Fire Wardens within two and a half minutes (after numerous boring drills, we'd resorted to blocking off exit routes during the drills, or Fire Wardens hiding in rooms to verify they were being cleared correctly).

    137:

    You can alter algos via Twitter (you can also do it via a splice or a EM nudge etc these days). Imagining that the 4th Estate, owned by 6-7 large Corporations, is not part of this is, well. The 4th Estate is mostly Marketing, so...

    frynotsureifserious.gif

    http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/futurama-fry-not-sure-if

    You don't spend $500,000,000 on PR hacks for nothing, and that's a non-serious minor regional war.

    M2-3 levels, of course it's all part of the Game. The kind of Game where destabilizing Italy via ECB bonds over-running E1 tril into negatives etc and so forth are played with (although, M4 edges with the long term planning involved with it, let's not call GS etc stupid).

    M4-5 is where the real wild ones wander (hint: it was never about penises, but hey: the M3 level of what massive, total, testosterone, unmitigated male failures drive the market: all priced into the burn. Yep, that penis is waving at You).

    shrug

    Mirror. Took a bit for the shaped charge to surface and onto the Reality it spreads (wiggles?).

    Dat Blow-back is shaping a black hole like you'd not imagine with that scale-payoff. Makes little derivative games look like fucking tic-tac-toe.

    Echidna Penis: funny man.

    The Market as God The Atlantic, 1999.

    Fucking 20th Century thinkers - it's gonna get you killed.

    ~

    'You Working?' YT: Film John Wick 2, 0:45

    138:

    Similarly, with the added note that we've had a Fire Warden standing in a fire exit route saying loudly "I am a blazing inferno."

    139:

    I was under the impression that the defense of the attacks on Gaza (and vicinity) is that Palestinians are not human.

    140:

    What's so weird about Echidna penises? Turtles are weirder, and so are ducks. Echnidas are cool, actually: closest thing to convergent evolution we have in mammals in so many, many ways.

    If you want body horror, though, higher on the scale than the phallusies already described is the Pilidiophora clade of nemertean worms. They undergo "catastrophic metamorphosis", in which the juvenile forms within the larval body and generally eats the larval body after rupturing it.

    141:

    Another is matriphagy: Arachnid Matriphagy: These Spider Mothers Literally Die for Their Young. I have a high threshold but learning about that creeped me out a bit. Vernor Vinge did a variant of this in a 1972 short story Original Sin, which also introduced the idea (in sci-fi, and AFAIK) that sufficiently advanced malice is indistinguishable from bad luck.

    142:

    the defense of the attacks on Gaza (and vicinity) is that Palestinians are not human.

    Like Australia, the area was uninhabited at the time of discovery {sic}. So goes the official propaganda anyway (to which the obvious response is: what's an improper gander?)

    The are Jews married to Aboriginal Australians here. Which must make for interesting politics. Or perhaps not, not all of each group take the obvious side (most obviously the various Jewish peace/two state groups, I'm not aware of any "Aborigines for Self-Genocide" groups).

    143:

    Actually, having brought up bad puns I feel obliged to reference the true grand-dad of puns and dad jokes, Mal Webb. I'll just link to his Webb site: http://malwebb.customer.netspace.net.au/

    This is the epitome: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iY-WNUTaWnM

    144:

    Not a problem. Picard learned about their life-cycle and made friends with them during the sixth season.

    145:

    A few more problems come to mind (speaking as a former damage control officer and instructor). Use of person self evacuation equipment such as smoke hoods came into the (Australian) fleet post the Falklands,the USS Stark also shaped our opinions a bit. The service can do this but it requires significant institutional grunt which (sorry all) is just not there in CIVLANT.

    Issues:

  • What sort of mask, is it positive pressure (requires a bottle) or passive (you need to make a tight seal to face). A simple passive design is cheap but requires more competency to fit and in a hot blaze you may get a lung full of superheated air and goodnight the fox.
  • Effectiveness - Stand up in a room filled with hot smoke and I guarantee you'll fry your head then collapse, that's why fire teams are trained to go everywhere on their knees (mine are wrecked). So is your hood smoke and heat proof? You've got to train for appropriate use.
  • Training - People need to be trained how to use the hood and you need to do refresher training (currency is a big recurring cost). Now if we painted council blocks grey and put a big white number on them this might work, but as a civilian volunteer thing?
  • Psychological - In my experience during training some folk have the screaming mimmsey's when they put one on, some freak out when they walk into a smoke filled room. And that's trained fit, psych app tested professionals.
  • Ergonomics - My favourite, you've got to make 'em for men, women, kids, babies, visually impaired etc etc (I recall they did have gas proof baby carriages circa WWII).
  • Where to put them, typically onboard we'd carry over complement (one at each bunk, more in the ships cafeteria, more at work stations, evacuation routes and scuttles). There's a cost there.
  • Readiness - Will they be there when you need them, or will some shiny lad have had them away down the markets? Will the filters be in date? I thing the local FB may be stretched enough checking fire alarms really...
  • Counter-value - What sort of behaviour does the presence of hoods encourage? Will people stick it out to the point where evacuation is problematic because they have 'hoods'? Risk homeostasis is a big issue in safety interventions.
  • The use of smoke hoods in the aviation industry comes up on a regular basis, it's one of those memes (sigh), and for much the same reasons as above they have not been adopted there. You'd be better off adopting the passive measures that that aviation industry has like (as suggested) floor strip lighting. Also making fire escapes [really] smoke tight would help and teaching folk that there's six inches of breathable air on the floor so get down low and go as a survival strategy.

    Final thought (as this comment has gone on way too long) what we found after September 11 is that most folk in both the towers who survived the impacts then stuffed around aimlessly for about 20 odd minutes before starting to evacuate. Doing? Well as you'd imagine important stuff like shutting down their PC, picking up knick knacks, calling other people. At Tenerife people survived the crash but sat in their seats 'waiting' until the fire and smoke killed them. Coconut Grove fire ditto. This is what people do, we're social animals unfortunately sometimes. So the number one positive survival factor is simply to leave, leave early, and leave fast. People need to be trained to break through that very deadly period of indecision. Movement is life as they say.

    146:

    (the IDF upper levels want to get rid of conscription, and the officer corps is entirely professional these days).

  • Most soldiers go into officer course while still conscripts. You can, in fact, go into the officer course 6 months in, finish it in 6 months, and then be given command of conscripts who were in the army longer than you were. This sometimes leads to subordination problems.

  • All officers must sign for additional time in the army, but most won't continue with it as a lifetime career. Most low ranking officers in IDF you can call conscripts++.

  • The idea of getting rid of conscripts exists, but it will never happen until the geopolitical situation around Israel changes significantly.

  • The reason for that is the defense plans are based around drafting a large amount of reservists, and you can't have a pool of reservists without conscript army, unless you are USA (read: extremely rich). Israel can't afford a large professional army.

  • Consider also the state of mind of a reservist IDF soldier. A conscript, young and idealistic, might take military ethics seriously. An IDF reservist opinion is basically this: "I'd rather burn all the children in Gaza, than leave my own children without a father." The officers are aware of that. In any large operation, many officers will also be reservists.

  • 147:

    I try to avoid this subject because of this sort of response. Let me just say that the staunchest defenders of the Palestinians are also Israeli Jews (often religious ones). It's too easy to blame and hate a whole class, when it is a subclass that is the culprit.

    To Martin: Genghis Kahn's tactics were not militarily disastrous, but were even more loathsome than those used in Gaza.

    148:

    I just went for a notice printed on red paper, next to the window in the fire door leading to the stairs;

    "You can see smoke on the other side of the window".

    The tricky bit was timing of putting up the notices on the two floors' fire doors - that time, it was my turn to be the only person in our firm (three companies share the building) who was told the exact time of the Fire Drill...

    149:

    When I was a fire warden at Leeds University I found it very difficult to get everbody -particularly those higher in the pecking order than me - to leave their offices and labs in the Old Medical School during fire alarms. I often had to shout at them particularly those in the middle for phone calls. On the other side I spent a year in hospital accomodation in Norwich and there were fire alarms in the small hours about every two months almost always due to burnt toast. When the first one occurred I jumped out of bed, ran downstairs and stood outside in the cold wearing only boxer shorts for about an hour until someone from the housing association which ran the building turned up to switch off the alarm. For later alarms I made sure got dressed and had a warm coat before leaving.

    150:

    There is a theatre of human endeavour where crying 'Fire!' is greeted with 'Lets pump in some gasoline!'

    I refer to states which have become dependent on electoral fraud and voter suppression.

    Once you've done it, and - worse - done it a couple of times, successfully, so that a political establishment of systematic lawlessness becomes entrenched, there is only one response to 'Fire! Fire!' or 'The *s are going to vote us out this time!'

    That response is: 'Do it more, do it harder, and do it in interesting new ways'.

    Some of those new ideas - and, indeed, the old ones - are illegal: as are the financial practices endemic in such an establishment. Losing an election has real costs.

    The most interesting 'new' idea is, of course, to declare these practices legal; best of all, to get a majority in the national legislature and roll back the most effective laws. That's 'safe' in a legalistic view, except for all the other irregularities that cone with the culture; and it's very unsafe in the long term when you consider the consequences of discredited democracy.

    For those of you who've been paying attention, this isn't just about the USA; nor is this about Russian interference in the election - that was a marginal effect that made enough of a difference to get Trump across the finishing line, but the heavy lifting was done by locally-grown media malpractice, counting fraud, and large-scale voter suppression.

    We have some of that here in the UK, too.

    There is a point at which the people helping out with voter suppression become quite powerful, a constituency that the miselected politicians have to give concessions to.

    They might, at some point, seem to be in charge.

    We passed that point a while ago with media moguls.

    Keeping a lid on all this needs a serious investment in policing: a particular type of policing - it's manpower-intensive and you might end up in need of help from the kind of people who've been 'helping out' with the racialised voter suppression.

    It also needs a serious investment in domestic surveillance of dangerous radicals, and it's surprising how many of them 'traitors' and 'agitators' there can be in an environment where endemic corruption and impunity is normalised.

    That escalates and intensifies, every time there's another fraudulent election - 'More gasoline over here, guys, the fire risk is increasing!' - and you discover that there's quite a lot of help available with the surveillance and analysis from people who've been 'helping out' with parts of your social media campaigning that you never really thought about.

    Plus, of course, the people who've been helping all along, in your domestic security apparatus.

    The 'help' is, of course, more gasoline.

    Everything you do will make it worse: more fuel, more flashpoints, more damaging consequences. Eventually elections become irrelevant: but that shifts the risk to other mechanisms of regime change.

    Having filled the theatre to the very top with gasoline, you discover that you have to stir it, continuously and ever more violently, to ensure that the dangerous radicals don't all precipitate out at once.

    So let's get to the point, and answer Charlie's question: "What other examples can you think of where you can profit by crying fire in a crowded theatre?"

    There's an election coming - "Fire! Fire!" - the profitable establishment we've built on systematic deception, voter suppression and fraud is under threat!

    Again.

    And again the next time, worse than last time.

    ...And there's money to be made in automated voting fraud, before and after it's decriminalised; there's money to be made in rebranding a ragged army of recreationally-violent racists as a 'security consultancy' that can help out, supporting the regular police force in ensuring an orderly election; and there's money to be made in social media analytics and targeted campaigning.

    And there is a great deal of money to be made in the monitoring and analytic services required to keep the lid on a society that lives and works in that regime.

    151:

    The shorter version of my answer is: the cry of 'Fire!' is out there anyway, and we know it will be repeated.

    The money from manipulating social media - and other activities of a corrupted political process - is available to clever fools who sell the shovels, pumps, licks for the fire scapes, security services and, above all, the social media analytics.

    Privateering goons and surveillance services, coming to a theatre near you.

    152:

    And then there is the happy fun hotel fire alarm at 2:30am experience while you're in bed and asleep.

    For added lulz, have the hotel alarms go off while you're in Boston in February in the middle of a three-day gap between snow emergencies (by which I mean enough snow fell to shut down Boston, i.e. about four feet in total depth in five days). Outside temperature was roughly -14 celsius before you added wind chill.

    Note also that the rooms have sprinklers and it's high-rise concrete construction with fire doors and firewalls; unless it's a catastrophic fire (read: Grenfell Tower) you're probably safe staying in your room.

    What's the hotel resident to do?

    (In my case it was: vacillate a lot, but get dressed, including boots and coat to hand. Wait to see if it's cancelled immediately. When not, go outside and see if people are evacuating. Nope. Vacillate some more, then head for the lobby — lifts were still operational, I was on the 14th floor and did not feel like hiking unnecessarily — and find about fifty other people had gone downstairs and the hotel staff were indeed trying to get people out onto the sidewalk. Which opened onto a main road, in a fucking blizzard. Compromised by waiting within ten metres of the lobby doors until the fire crew strolled in to see what part of the alarm board was malfunctioning this time.)

    But yeah, there is a problem with training: people mostly don't respond appropriately in an emergency (I sure didn't) unless they've been drilled, and there are environments (shopping malls, high rise hotels) where you have a high transient population and can't train them and other environments (hospitals, nursing homes) where you have a high dependency population who are unable to self-evacuate.

    153:

    I work in an eight-story office block; there are two shielded staircases for evacuation. In the six-monthly unannounced fire drills, we're generally all out well within five minutes

    A few decades ago I had a friend who worked for Revenue Canada in one of the big office complexes in Ottawa. He always said that if there was a fire most of them would be dead because it took ages to evacuate the building.

    It didn't look that bad on paper, but apparently a large number of the workers on the lower floors had asthma, dodgy knees and other heath problems. So what would happen is that they would hobble slowly down the stairs clutching both handrails, stopping midflight (still clutching both handrails) to catch their breaths and chat.

    154:

    This one's more like "crying fire sale in a crowded shopping mall": intentional deception by blurring the distinction between the nominal and effective APR (annual percentage rate) on a credit card or loan.

    TL;DR: The two terms have very different meanings, and advertising a low APR may actually conceal a significantly higher effective rate.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annual_percentage_rate

    155:

    When I was a fire warden at Leeds University I found it very difficult to get everbody to leave their offices and labs in the Old Medical School during fire alarms

    We were fortunate - it was generally accepted that "fire alarm, leaving now" was good reason to stop talking.

    Our problem was persuading people not to take their coffee with them down the stairs (because if they get used to it, during a real fire they'll spill it / slip in it / scald someone).

    For later alarms I made sure got dressed and had a warm coat before leaving.

    That was the point I (gently) kept reminding - what happens if it's winter, dark, raining / blowing a gale, and a real fire? How do we stop 150 people in light clothing from going down with cold injury, while still keeping track of them? Assuming that the Fire Brigade arrives and blocks the car park exit...

    My effort was to produce a checklist that got stuck to the back of the clipboards with the staff list; bright yellow, big print, minimum number of bullet points, and trying to get people to think through things before it becomes a drama (the office block opposite was likely to get a lot of unannounced visitors).

    You can't tell that my father became an Emergency Planning Officer for the local council, can you ... ;)

    156:

    There's a story that's been passed down the generations in my family. Some bits of it may have been improved or changed in the c.100 years since it happened, but this is the version I've been told.

    One of my great-grandfather's brothers signed up for the Canadian Expeditionary Force in WWI. He was wounded and recuperating on a hospital ship in a French port. I imagine that people thought they were safe enough. This was a ship in port, after all. Why should you hold evacuation drills? Besides, there were lots of non-ambulatory cases on hand.

    A U-Boat slipped in to the harbour and torpedoed the ship.

    The ship didn't sink immediately, but it began settling fast. The patients who could get up and walk out of the ship (like my great-grand uncle) survived. Those who couldn't - the unconscious, leg-wounded, belly-wounded, etc. - drowned. A hell of a way to go.

    157:

    Nile, I live in a third-world country just south of Canada, and you've described substantial portions of my country very accurately. Fortunately, I live in one of the more liberal portions of my country, and don't experience everything you describe, but many of my countrymen are stuck in that cycle.

    158:

    Any chance your "conservative" party will change their name? So many of them make manifestly unwise decisions.

    159:

    It's actually "Conservative and Unionist", as Iain Banks fans know. Slightly surprised I've not seen that used on twitter for DUP-related pisstaking.

    160:

    And recalling my CCNA C is fairly similar (cica .5c) for both copper and fibre

    161:

    But yeah, there is a problem with training: people mostly don't respond appropriately in an emergency (I sure didn't) unless they've been drilled, and there are environments (shopping malls, high rise hotels) where you have a high transient population and can't train them and other environments (hospitals, nursing homes) where you have a high dependency population who are unable to self-evacuate.

    Indeed. A few years ago I was in a big-box hardware store (I don't know if such things occur in the UK, but you can imagine) with another SF fan of OGH's acquaintance when the fire alarm went off. We looked around and couldn't see any signs of fire or smell any smoke...but we were also at the back of the store, perhaps 100 meters of walking from the main doors. We figured it would be wiser to wander toward the exits, not in a hurry but to put us in a better position in case the situation developed. It was a bit of a surprise to us than none of the other shoppers seemed to pay any attention to the whooping alarm. Granted there was no other sign of trouble - but shouldn't the alarm be cause for further investigation?

    Warnings are only useful if people will actually pay attention.

    162:

    Personal account on the general subject of "fire" alarms.

    I was at work, in a room within a room in the building I normally work in. This room also contained a rack of Sun SparcStations, but did not contain an alarm sounder. Neither indeed did the room this room was in. This led to my not hearing the alarm, and after some 10 minutes my supervisor was detached back into the building to look for me. My response on being asked why I hadn't evacuated was on the lines of "What alarm?" since I hadn't heard it.

    163:

    I guess people reckon it's far more likely to be a false alarm or a drill than a real one, and their day is therefore going to be much more seriously disrupted if they do respond to it than if they don't. And since it is far more likely to be a false alarm or a drill than a real one, this view will probably be reinforced every time an alarm happens. Much like burglar/car alarms are universally ignored.

    It was interesting to see the automatic responses to the fire alarm going off in a school dormitory. The thing really was shockingly loud, painfully so if you were too close to a sounder, yet it was strangely hard to register the noise if it had just jerked you out of sleep. Boys would strip their beds and proceed to the washroom as per the standard morning routine, and would need to be shaken out of it and made to realise it was a fire drill by active intervention.

    164:

    re. Fire alarms: Yes, you have to teach people to take them seriously. When I co-chaired a workplace safety committee at a research lab, it took quite a bit of prodding of management before they realized that by only scheduling the drills on bright, sunny, warm days in the spring, they had trained staff to notice that if the weather was nice, it was only a drill and they could ignore it. If we'd ever had a real fire on a nice day... Oops! Persuading the managers to be willing to leave the building in unpleasant weather during a drill broke the staff's habit of ignoring drills and made them take the drills more seriously.

    I can't claim any particular superiority, though. When I lived on the 19th floor of a student residence, we had false alarms almost every evening, usually around or after midnight, but never a real fire. After the first couple of weeks, we just gave up on the idea of making a nightly midnight run in our nightwear down 19 flights of stairs clutching the dog and rabbit. Not wise, perhaps, but practical.

    165:

    I've seen this done very well in a crowded building. A few years ago my wife and I and my daughter's family were a a Center Parcs in the swimming pool when the alarm went off. The staff were very well trained and got everybody out of the building (all wet and in swimwear). Each person was handed a large towel as they exited into a cold November afternoon. We were lucky and found an empty outside table with a heater at a nearby restaurant. About 20 minutes later we were all allowed back inside. I was very impressed by the professionalism of the staff.

    166:

    What's so weird about Echidna penises? Turtles are weirder, and so are ducks.

    Oh boy. Crying with laughter here. Are you serious? I thought it was cute, not horrific.

    Ok, the point is NOT that they're weird. The point is that the animated video version is NOT unlike your own appendages (unlike the flaccid / illustrated versions). Dolphin penises (due to saline conditions) are ultra-smooth and while prehensile, lack exterior veins and/or land-mammalian recognizable skin but are still semi-anthropomorphized. Thatsthejoke.jpg (LSD and hand jobs say hello[1]).

    If you threw that video up on Cosmopolitan Magazine in close-focus with just the hand and shouted: "BIOTECH: WHY YOUR BOYFRIENDS PENIS NEEDS TO DO THIS TO HIT YOUR G-SPOT"...

    It'd push your stock not double, not triple, but probably tenfold.

    THAT is the joke.

    ~

    Anyhow: clarify - as I'm reading the worm stuff, the only shocking thing seems to be that the juvenile stage actively digested the larva stage from within while the larva stage is still "alive". The cyst formation is within organism, prevents parasites / predation and looks fairly organism specific. Image sites fire up, etc etc.

    So, it's just a proto-pupae for all intents and purposes - same DNA, same organism, just a slightly lower tech way of breaking down the larva stage DNA / resources into juvenile stage.

    Butterflies / Moths put it all into a soup, beetles etc ... insects do this, just with a higher % conversion rate and more safely.

    Not seeing the body-horror in your own next incarnation eating your old self.

    Hint: This is where our Minds are fundamentally different.

    [1] True story.

    167:

    As an aside, it does make sense.

    The massive realms of parasitical wasps (and wasps meta-parasitising / predating and so on all through the insect clades) is probably an off shoot of these early methods. i.e. this is how it started, parasitism / predation invaded, arms war... (and, tbh, worms are already pro-parasites / predators etc - so hardly new. The trick is simply to fool the host body into thinking your invasive DNA is the juvenile stage, NOM NOM NOM is allowed by the simple defense mechanisms. Parasitology 101).

    Until you're forced to pupate in a hard shell to fend off other species hijacking these methods.

    It's cool, but it's not horrific. Neither is eating Mum (alive or otherwise): that's entirely sensible.

    If you want horror, you'd have to have a reproductive element that fundamentally changed your DNA to make sure that all your offspring were damaged and could never evolve and/or fix it and so on...

    And only Humans do that.

    168:

    (Bees / Termites don't count here: genetically speaking the templates are non-permanent due to the way in which mating etc happens. The difference between workers / males / Queens etc is purely dependent on initial choices and remains extant across generations).

    Humans, on the other hand... whooo boy. Talk about deliberately crippling Minds and Bodies and Genes to prevent change.

    Only Parasites do... OH.

    169:

    It was interesting to see the automatic responses to the fire alarm going off in a school dormitory.

    Yup. Our school used a five-second burst of the fire bell as Reveille at 7am; if it went continuously, it was hard to confuse the two. We had the added delight of the Duty Bugler[1] (yes, seriously) racing to play the Fire Call (as if the fire bell going full tilt wasn't enough).

    A few years ago my wife and I and my daughter's family were a a Center Parcs in the swimming pool when the alarm went off.

    We were in the Cumbrian Centre Parcs swimming pool when the same thing happened - reflective blankets all round, building cleared in minutes. Rather reassuring ;)

    [1] It was an unusual school. Originally set up by public subscription just over a century ago, as an orphanage for soldiers' and sailors' children. Still there, now co-ed, and the ceremonial aspect remains - although much diminished.

    170:

    [Note: there's a fundamentally important point being made here about your Minds and how we're acting and so forth. Show, not tell, as they say. Children are your real horror pressure point - YouTube has some real nasty stuff going down as we speak, and, of course: chromium-6 / lead and so on]

    Bottom line: where you anthropomorphize horror is where your weak spots are.

    And you're still confused by Trump etc? It's a human run horror show, ID attack vectors. Pro-tip: look above, Freudian narcissistic ID motile penis beast doesn't work on us. But it does work on the unshielded Liberal Mind. (THAT'S THE JOKE).

    Our Horror is. A. little. bit. more. sophisticated.

    +10k points to The Weavers of Fate:

    NEWS - Mike Pence and Charles Koch held a 45-minute meeting at Broadmoor in CO Springs, spox for Koch umbrella group confirms. Twitter, NYT correspondent, 23rd June, 2017

    Elected officials attending Koch summit in Colorado Springs this weekend: USA Today, Twitter, 23rd June 2017 - lists.

    Told you the Kochs were moving up schedule, "Time for Tea". Is Mr Troutwaxer bored now? Sufficient proof given? Who knows.

    p.s.

    Ms. Ex-Pharma of the Glass Bead Game invoked horror with her drawings. Not sure y'all understood why, but there we go. That was directed horror deployed as weaponry: and I was really nice in return. (well, apart from the whole "Here's how to actually change Time / Threads and here's explicit proof, and I'll burn down a multi-year plan as a warning", but that's her/their horror, not your male Mind version).

    [And yes: aware of the meta2 horror: host is losing Eyeballs. But, don't worry: TIME, important etc]

    171:

    embryo, larva, pupa and imago

    embryo, larva, internal juvenile cyst (nom nom), imago

    Same shit; in fact, larva still being motile is probably a good survival strategy pre-chitin. In fact, I'm going to have to research this, as it looks like a precursor survivor to pre-parasitical / predation evolution. Which is cool, but weird it survived.

    It's only horror if you thought that your own body constantly devouring its own cells was horror. I mean, internal cells it's a given, but even specialized warriors like sperm are broken down if not used. (Poor Egg Cells: Now that's a different mechanism).

    You're a constantly self-cannibalizing quasi-autonomous cell factory whose Mind changes day by day and whose entire cellular structure is replaced every seven years (and much faster in certain parts / certain conditions). And you think a juvenile worm eating itself to gain imago is horror?

    Really?

    The Beast Within YT: A film with the best worst special effects you've ever seen, 3:12.

    172:

    When commercial aircraft are evacuated the standard (and unstated) drill is to leave anyone who's not ambulatory until after all other passengers are off the aircraft. Sorry but to do otherwise slows down the evacuation. Lose one to save the may.

    There is also more general problem with evacuations in that (unlike the movies) people just amble along in a zombie like state even when the situation is obviously deteriorating. Again that's why cabin crew are trained to scream and abuse you to 'get out, out now'.

    The psychology of people and what they do and don't do in extreme situations is absolutely fascinating.

    Then there's this guy...

    http://911survivors.weebly.com/the-man-who-saved-2686-people.html

    173:

    I always suspected those Koch brothers were the corporeal incarnation of the Umbrella Corporation.

    174:

    Nope: The Umbrella Corporation believed in Genetic Science and actually funded entire Cities (and, unlike the NYT / American Press / Bush Presidency, they actually built multi-stage, complex engineered super bases under the ground, and didn't just publish fake pictures of their imaginary Afghanistan Bond lairs). Of course, they muppeted it up, but hey: it's not like they weren't evil in an Enlightenment way. (ACTUAL COUGH NEOLIBERALIST WAY COUGH).

    Pro-tip: Umbrella Corp is a wery wery complex Japanese satire. Then the movies and this kinda crap destroyed it: Japan passes 'brutal' counter-terror law despite fears over civil liberties Guardian, 15th June, 2017 - fucking told you all this 5+ years ago with Abe in the 731 fighter. FUCKING WARNED YOU. THE MAN IS THE HEAD OF A FASCIST / CAPITALIST / NATIONALIST CABLE FFS[1].

    Anyhow: it's a question about how much money you can make by manipulating social media to drive public opinion.

    Lol, nope. Thus all the cryptocurrency links (If you want proof the Galleries are still watching, here ya go: GDAX Bails out Margin Traders Affected by Ethereum Flash Crash The Merkle, 24th June, 2017 - it's accurate, but sadly so passe. Upshot is: ICOs etc, they're putting in circuit breakers, derp). And, No, no, no. None of this is about that (that already happened with QE - US, UK, top 0.5% doubled their wealth etc). Literally - not the Game being played now.

    ~

    To explain: This is the Market Juvenile Cyst Stage where it eats itself (or rather, the society that birthed it).

    You. Do. Not. Want. The. Imago. Version.

    Bring torches and pitch.

    [1] No, really. This shit is getting purged from the Memory Hole by professionals. 右翼団体 and ultra-secret top end cabals are getting purged. But, it's known and obvious now.

    175:

    Most asbestos in buildings is best just left

    AIUI in the US (or most of it) asbestos that is confined or secured can be left alone. Only that which might become or is loose has to be removed.

    176:

    When commercial aircraft are evacuated the standard (and unstated) drill is to leave anyone who's not ambulatory until after all other passengers are off the aircraft.

    What do you do when the semi-ambulatory are blocking the evacuation route? (Or more accurately, slowing it down to a hobble with pauses for breath.) That was the situation at my friend's building.

    177:

    You're a constantly self-cannibalizing quasi-autonomous cell factory whose Mind changes day by day... OK, I'll play. Baring unusual trauma, what levels of changes are there with human Minds on a day-to-day basis? Certainly from personal self-observation there seems to be some sort of resetting or pruning[1] going on during sleep that can't be identically restored given randomized daily experiences. (Yes, I've tried.) Anyway, curious.

    [1] e.g. [don't know this work well enough to evaluate; need to read it closely] Ultrastructural evidence for synaptic scaling across the wake/sleep cycle. These are the "synaptic homeostasis hypothesis" people: Sleep and the Price of Plasticity: From Synaptic and Cellular Homeostasis to Memory Consolidation and Integration

    Not meta in the slightest (at least not consciously), just happy to see the first black swallowtail caterpillars of the season, on dill in the vegetable garden. [working out imgur privacy/security so no phone pics yet.] Seen: first/third instar stages, full grown caterpillar. Probably more including eggs but didn't search. More pics: life cycle of a black swallowtail butterfly

    178:

    For added lulz, have the hotel alarms go off ... Note also that the rooms have sprinklers and it's high-rise concrete construction with fire doors and firewalls; unless it's a catastrophic fire (read: Grenfell Tower) you're probably safe staying in your room.

    What's the hotel resident to do?

    Alarms went off in an Alexandria, VA hotel (next to Washington DC) a year ago during nice weather about midnight. Wasn't really deep asleep so I jumped up and looked out my door. Didn't see smoke so pulled on pants and shoes, grabbed my phone and wallet and headed out. Elevators were still working so I took them down. (In any semi modern building in the US the elevators go to lobby if using them is a problem. (I think.))

    Still would have had a big pause if the weather had not been so nice. Because when I checked in earlier that night it was obvious that there was a fairly large high school band/club/choir group at the place. Think 14 - 18 year old teens. I was in band myself back in the day and was a band parent for several years with my son. So in the back of my mind I kept thinking this was some student (who if caught was going to have a miserable year) thinking they were having fun. A lot of the adults milling about had had similar thoughts.

    Turns out the alarm was real but not a fire. A sprinkler pipe in a hallway had sprung a leak and the sudden water flow in the system triggered the alarm. We got to go back to our rooms after an hour or so.

    179:

    Mr. Stross, since you take the accusations of Russian involvement in the last US election seriously, and since I have a great deal of respect for your judgement, I'm really curious to know why you think these charges are remotely plausible. Personally, I've so far not seen any evidence that it's true, despite the fact that the whole Clinton wing of the Democratic party, much of the US corporate media, and most of the US military industrial complex has been frantically pushing this idea for all they are worth. As I understand this exercise in keeping Clinton from accepting blame for her electoral failure, and keeping Trump for even considering improving relations with the Russians, Russia is accused, by a private cyber security firm hired by the Democrats, of hacking files containing the text of Clinton's vastly overpaid speeches to Wall Steet, and showing the DNC cheated to keep Sanders from getting the Democratic nomination. (The FBI didn't actually investigate the matter themselves.)Russia then supposedly give these files to Wikileaks. The files had very little impact on the election, because while they were true, they did little more than show Clinton was a dishonest neoliberal, which most people paying close attention already knew. Wikileaks denies they got the files from the Russians, which may have been leaked by Seth Rich rather than by Putin,(if you want to compare conspiracy theories). A few proven liars from the CIA and FBI like James Clapper have done their best to use this unproven collection of innuendo to their own advantage, though they tend to be careful not to claim to actually know anything while testifying to Congress. In other words, it looks to me like a fake scandal which continues because powerful people in Washington find it useful as a tool for hitting Trump. While I have no sympathy for Trump, the fact that he is a dishonest, incompetent opportunist doesn't make him a Russian agent. So if you could actually shed some light on this matter, perhaps in a future post, I'd appreciate it.

    180:

    Ignoring all the deliberately-obscurantist waffling, you nonetheless have a very serious danger-point highlighted there. The Kochs & Pence & Ted Cruz & Adam Laxalt. A "Legal" coup d'etat is under construction ... yes/no?

    181:

    A sprinkler pipe in a hallway had sprung a leak ... Exactly. Sprinkler systems are ... uinreliable, corrode & leak & cost to maintain. For commercial premises, where there may be several different tenant firms in a bukding, maybe ... for residential, maybe/maybe not such a good idea. Try foir not having a fir in the fist olace & then containing it if one breaks out & being able to extinguish it quickly, anyway. Choices ... which set is the least wrong?

    182:

    I've been evacuated from a plane full of drunk german businessmen.

    Lessons learned:

  • Never wrestle the cabin crew.

  • Don't be drunk on planes.

  • 183:

    Given the USA's record of interfering in elections and cancelling the results it doesn't like, I cannot get excited about such claims, anyway. That includes in the UK of course, via proxies.

    184:

    The crew seat you so that you are away from the exits :-) from experience coming back with a leg in plaster from a ski trip.

    But you do get better leg room :-)

    185:

    The crew seat you so that you are away from the exits

    Not an option with buildings, I'm afraid.

    186:

    The crew seat you so that you are away from the exits IME (based on having early onset osteo-arthritis in one knee) buildings managers try to get you a room/desk near a fire exit. This may or may not be partly because they benefit from achieving low evacuation times.

    187:

    Mr. Stross, since you take the accusations of Russian involvement in the last US election seriously, and since I have a great deal of respect for your judgement, I'm really curious to know why you think these charges are remotely plausible.

    Because it's not just the USA they've been meddling in; has the attack on the House of Commons this weekend made the news in your country? Or incursions in Estonia and Lithuania, or the West Ukraine? Russian cyberwar doctrine views propaganda and agitprop — "fake news" — as being as much a part of things as actual hacking, and it's a no-brainer that they wouldn't want a foreign policy hawk with State Department experience in the White House. Add the FBI investigation and Trump's Russian loans and I think it's fairly clear that, while Trump isn't an actual agent on the KGB payroll, they'd much rather have him causing havoc in the Oval Office than have to deal with a competent president.

    188:

    Had a similar problem where I worked a couple of years ago, a 13 floors down evac route. Basically we had to institute a fast lane, slow lane system. If you're slow hug the hand rail. If you're not go on the wall. Technically easy as it was a newish building, but boy the social engineering! People always want to help you see so they slow down as they come up to someone. Had to institute 'highway patrol' wardens to move people along when they passed the slow pokes, oh and the slower folk weren't that enthused about being, in their words, 'left to die' tricky bit of persuasion. Lots of talking and we had to do a before after trial to show people the improvement in time. That was the clincher.

    189:

    One of my duties in my first job, more than 30 years ago, was assigning seats to passengers before they boarded their planes. It was expressly forbidden to place persons that could delay evacuation near emergency exits, and the prohibition was taken very seriously (and included drunkards, elderly & overweight people, mothers with babies, passengers with heavy and/or bulky hand luggage... in short, anyone that could be reasonably feared to block exits, even for a few seconds).

    One of the very first things we always did was filling those seats with young, fit passengers as soon as we could. It saved a lot of troubles if you could say in all truth that there were simply no free seats left near the emergency exits.

    190:

    There were several "Conservative and Unionist Negotiating Team" jokes circulating post-election.

    191:

    I'll construct a proper reply if Host's interests cross over to there. It's extremely interesting; put it this way - look @ how Turkey is cementing its 'National Identity' to get a feel for how feedback mechanisms work on (singular? lol) Human Identity. View your society as a Body-without-Organs (that's a hint) etc.

    ~

    Anyhow, right on schedule, answering Host's question:

    Italy Commits $19 Billion for Veneto Banks in Biggest Rescue Bloomberg, 25th June, 2017

    Europe's Banking Union Is Dying in Italy Bloomberg View, 23rd June, 2017 (Note: US online editions of Bloomberg or Forbes in particular have odd rules on who gets to post on their opinion pages (and in Forbes case, you get some right fruitcakes) - check author credentials carefully. In this case, Ferdinando Giugliano is a journo (FT, la Repubblica) and is an Oxford grad. So: politically (neo)liberal at a guess, and not actually one of the money-men, but a smart ape none-the-less. His Twitter Account).

    Italy to Spend Up to $19 Billion to Bail Out Two Banks WSJ, 25th June, 2017

    So, we're back to !FIRE! of 2008-2010 and the happy-clappy mass bank collapse scenarios of 2012. Whoever profits from this, whelp, it's EU taxpayer bailouts once more (and you'll find the US banking sector profiting here).

    Whoever is involved knew the Spanish failure would spread to Italy (ECB / Germany, really) and has been fanning this on the 'QT' while Trump is keeping everyone else frothingly unable to focus on actual politics.

    How much money could/can they make? Billions, at the bottom end.

    [Serious note: this is not the Russian's mo, this is either a repeating emergent cycle baked into the way derivatives / the Market functions which is predictably parasitized by participants, or US hostile foreign policy snapping at the EU (Germany), depending on your levels of cynicism. The scary version? It's the latter but with most of the Power Players either fired, tied up, retired, switching sides or otherwise focused on internal soft coup issues. That last comment is the ravings of a fool, totally made up. Really. Not scary at all.]

    ~

    eyes i dare not meet in dreams Tor, Sunny Moraine, 14th June, 2017. Good little creepy story playing off the 'Dead women in refrigerators' trope.

    Also, a bit of a nose wiggle commentary about current things.

    192:

    In today's news, "CONneDUP"? ;-)

    193:

    American Airlines and I suspect all US based airlines and maybe most all of the majors world wide have a positive response policy before the plane takes off. A flight attendant asks if you are willing and able to assist in the exit process as explained the seat back card. If you don't respond with a verbal clear yes you will have to move to another seat before the plane will take off.

    194:

    £200M/y for 2 years - Infrastructure £75M/y for 2 years - Internet Devolution of Corporation Tax Rates (watch this one go !pop!) City Deals / Enterprize Zones (watch that space) £20M/y for 5 years - Poverty £50M/y for 2 years - Plugging the budget holes (c.f prior comments) in Health / Education budgets £100M/y for 2 years - Health Infrastructure £10M/y for 5 years - Mental Health

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/621797/UK_Govt__financial_support_for_Northern_Ireland.pdf

    ....M A G I C

    ....O

    ....N

    T R E E

    ....Y

    195:

    Crying Fire - or in this case "fires out"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Stock_Exchange_Fraud_of_1814

    Followers of "Lucky Jack" Aubrey's career as documented by Patrick O'Brian may recall this affair from 'The Reverse of the Medal', but in our timeline it was Lord Cochrane who was fingered , although he violently protested his innocence, and was eventually restored to the Order of the Bath and reinstated as Rear Admiral.

    196:

    Whenever I've flown (in this century) I've always had the option selecting my seat when booking the ticket (now you have to pay extra money for that). The only limitation is that if you select an emergency row you have to affirm that you are able-bodied (and I imagine the crew will relocate you if you turn out not to be).

    I've flown emergency row twice — once because it was the only row left, and again because I liked the extra legroom.

    197:

    This articles explore a little-understood phenomenon in the US: how confidence in the economy correlates to which party holds power.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-06-26/why-americans-feel-so-good-about-a-mediocre-economy

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/211583/democrats-confidence-economy-steadily-eroding-post-obama.aspx

    In short, it is very problematic to take consumer confidence in the US at face value. Is this true in the UK as well?

    198:

    Yes. Fucking amazing where this money appeared from. Leaving aside the inevitable fallout with other UK regions re Barnett Formula (have the DUP just fanned the recently banked flames of Scottish independence and endangered the Union they hold so dear?); some initial thoughts/observations:

    £200M/y for 2 years - Infrastructure ... Expect most of this to go to road projects in areas with high DUP support, or where it can be leveraged to political gain (some locally high profile projects that could benefit greatly).

    £75M/y for 2 years - Internet ... Expect the improvements to be targeted in rural areas. There is obviously good in this, but it also plays well to a lot of DUP rural support.

    Devolution of Corporation Tax Rates ... Are we going to add "Tax Haven" to "Dark Money Back Door" on our list of UK political accomplishments?

    City Deals / Enterprize Zones £20M/y for 5 years - Poverty £50M/y for 2 years - Plugging the budget holes ... So much scope for, let's call it, "grey budgeting" in here (don't expect anything too imaginative, cf. RHI)

    £100M/y for 2 years - Health Infrastructure .. Expect this to be mismanaged, frittered away, and end up being less than adequate (no sums done, but back-of-the-envelope guesstimate is that this is already significantly less than is really needed -- absent massive structural reform)

    199:

    Sorry if this is off-topic. In case anyone is curious, here is an article explaining the US Supreme Court's recent ruling in regards to the Separation of Church and State.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-06-26/supreme-court-weakens-wall-between-church-and-state

    200:

    On the other hand, I could be wrong and the Stormont Assembly could pop back into existence immediately, the budget wisely spent, and sunshine and rainbows ensue (proper rainbows, not the gay sort, of course).

    After all, we've only got past experience of how the NI Assembly spend money to go on ...

    201:

    You've seen Sinn Féin's Carson-quoting response, I presume? They at least are sure this whole exercise is the DUP carefully aiming a howitzer at their own big toe, from the level of barely-contained glee in their statements.

    202:

    Given the history of dubious monetary handouts & palm-greasing on both sides of the border since at least 1966, it does not bode well, does it?

    203:

    NoJay, in the US, the real problem isn't just upper management who wants to hire on the cheap, it's also HR. Now, back in the day, Personnel knew the organization, and had folks who knew what they were hiring for.

    These days, they don't know, and they don't care to know.

    Now... my old friend Bro. Guy used to teach "science for non-science majors", and the bottom of the food chain of the majors that took that class - those that not only didn't get it, but didn't know that they didn't get it - were the communications majors... who'd go into, among other things, HR.

    There was an article in the Atlantic? Slate? last year, entitled "Your HR Department Hates You", which expands on it all.

    After many years on and off, I finally got my B.Sc in '95 (I'd already been programming for 15 years...). About three months later, I got a new job with Ameritech, a Baby Bell (since swallowed). I was friends with my managers, and a few months later, asked it the degree had interested them. They told me they were interested in my experience, but the degree helped them get me through HR.

    Through the nineties and oughts (I've had one job since '09), I actively wanted to talk to headhunters. They had "relationships" with the hiring managers, and actually knew what they were looking for. The managers, then, would tell HR who they wanted to see.

    204:

    Mr. Stross, I'm sure you must be aware of how hard it can be to prove that a highly competent group of hackers is actually responsible for a specific attempt to hack a system. I took a quick look at news reports on the attempt to get into the emails of British members of Parliament, and it doesn't seem that anyone knows yet who did it, though of course it's easy to point to a few of the "obvious", politically convenient suspects, like Russia and North Korea. So I personally don't think that an unsubstantiated accusation that the Russian government might be involved in a unsuccessful hack in the UK is proof of unproven accusations that they were also involved in unsuccessful hacks in the US. It seems to me that you strongly dislike the Russian government, and are therefore perhaps a little too quick to think they might be capable of anything. My own subjective opinion of the Russian government is slightly more favorable, since I admire certain actions they have taken, for example, in Syria, where they have helped the Syrian government and people defend themselves from attacks sponsored by foreign governments including the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. Perhaps I am making a mistake by giving them "the benefit of the doubt" because of that. Regardless of that, and like another poster on this thread, I'm not too morally outraged in principle by accusations that someone 'meddled' in a US election, given the many examples of fat worse meddling in other countries by the US.

    205:

    Um, I meant to type "far worse meddling". Freudian slip?

    206:

    Sorry, I meant mostly unsuccessful hack. Some MP's with weak passwords may have lost data.

    207:

    My own subjective opinion of the Russian government is slightly more favorable, since I admire certain actions they have taken, for example, in Syria, where they have helped the Syrian government

    This would be the same Syrian government that hanged about 13,000 prisoners at a secret prison after drumhead military trials on the basis of confessions obtained via torture?

    Here's a clue: there are no "good guys" in the Syrian civil war right now, except possibly the refugees fleeing it and maybe the Kurds (if you subscribe to the theory that being crapped on consistently by everybody else makes you saintly). The Syrian government is a sectarian Ba'ath police state, the rebels are dominated by folks like Da'esh and their rivals, the Russians are only in it because they want a Mediterranean port with basing rights for the Russian Navy, Turkey is in it to fuck with the Kurds.

    I'll grant you that the USA has a long and ignoble history of meddling with other folks' elections and governments — witness why the Iranians are so suspicious of US motivations, for example — but two wrongs do not make a right.

    208:

    OGH's #207 missed out how the USians are only in Syria because they want to do down Da'esh (but aren't clear on how, otherwise why would they ascribe totally misplaced statehood to a bunch of murderous thugs who don't actually support the code they claim to live by?) and stop the Russians having a Mediterranean naval base.

    209:

    While they may not be wrong, Sinn Fein's glee is (to mangle the metaphor at the start of this thread) rather like the glee of those who cried fire in the crowded theatre realising that there is a fire, and that someone has locked the exits.

    While the initial skid appears to be under control, in no way has the car crash been averted yet.

    Greg @202: Cautious agreement. The money is far from in safe hands, particularly with the NI Assembly still in limbo.

    Curious to read Elderly Cynic's take on latest developments; although, I don't think it will significantly alter the various theses he has already put forward.

    210:

    Your narrative grasp of the actualities of the situation are somewhat limited.

    The dubious friends of Donald Trump: the Russians YT: Zembla, May 11th, 2017, 45:45. Dutch investigative documentary, somewhat useful.

    A Timeline: Russia and President Trump Moyers & Company, 19th June, 2017 (1979-2017, looks fairly mainstream / public - only useful for getting a sense of how these things work).

    Look upwards and spot my input: EU banks are back on the menu which signifies a major renewal of something that people were stamping hard upon (probably, looking it all over, due to Uber being burnt / Brexit falling apart like a rotten zombie, but digression time).

    The issue isn't that Trump in particular has lots of ties to Russian oligarchs (he does, and it's fairly blatant), it's that his connections are just so medium key / tiny sums (millions, not billions). (Cue famous 1950's film time).

    The issue is, of course, that everyone has ties to Russian oligarchs. And Russia is happy to play the hard-man to keep people from sniffing out just how tightly knitted Capital, DAVOS and so on really are at the top.

    I mean, here's a gallery (mostly old 2008-2012 data) of connections:

    Bilderberg Connections Imgur - partially incomplete, old data (2008) but gives you an idea of the scale of these things.

    But what’s also true is that all these different campaigns used the same obscure branding agency. Over the course of the final few weeks of the referendum, the Electoral Commission Website tells us, Arron Banks’ Leave.EU, the official Vote Leave campaign, Grassroots Out, Ukip and the Democratic Unionist Party collectively spent over £800,000 with Soopa Doopa, a branding agency based, you guessed it, in the tiny Cambridgeshire city of Ely.

    As part of their Brexit campaign, the DUP spent almost £100,000 with Soopa Doopa, buying 15,000 Corex Boards, 5,000 bags, 100,000 window stickers, 7,000 t-shirts and 50,000 badges. On BBC Northern Ireland, the Stephen Nolan Show recently asked its listeners if they had seen any of the DUP branded Brexit material. openDemocracy did spot some of this, but not in Northern Ireland – in Edinburgh.

    Meanwhile, Leave.EU spent £20,652.25 with Soopa Doopa, Grassroots Out £42,000, Ukip £18,000, and Vote Leave £637,108.80. In the whole of 2014-15, Soopa Doopa had a turnover of just three-quarters of a million pounds.

    A New Special Relationship for America and Britain Emerges with Climate Science Deniers Linked to Trump and Brexit DeSmogUK, Jan 16th, 2017

    ~

    It's Global Capital, Jake. (And this is only really the M2/3 levels).

    211:

    uff, missing link:

    Meet the Soopa Doopa branding agency that delivered Brexit Open Democracy UK, 26th June, 2017

    That's a brand new part of the puzzle: "Scoopa Doopa" - these people really do have childish minds.

    212:

    Oh, and expect Scooby-Doo / Scoopa Doopa meme mashups: the non-Alt-Right are wildly outclassed in this area.

    And yes: the DeSmogUK link actively shows collusion between USA factions and the current serving UK government. And not the "nice" ones. It's blatant.

    ~

    From the Tor piece:

    Dead girls wreaked havoc when they felt like someone or something was coming at them. So don’t come at a dead girl. Easy lesson learned quickly.

    Dead girls have itchy trigger fingers. They hit back hard. You shouldn’t need to ask about the reasons for that.

    213:

    THE DUP: £100k for £100 mil / seat, £1bil+ total.

    That practically writes itself.

    That's the problem with these things: the graft gets out of hand, and you end up paying out serious multipliers on the off-side (c.f. Congress seats and Industry pork barrels, USA edition).

    214:

    I mean, really: The DUP get to be serious power-players (lol) by buying a few newspaper ads (print medium, zzz) and some branded tat not using their own money?

    And the Conservatives are beholden to low-ball US entities whose intellectual powers are being turned into soup by Dead Girls?

    You have to be fucking kidding me.

    ~

    Anyhow: something to cheer the world up, possibly the greatest thing you'll watch today: The internet, so glorious Mark Whitelegge, Twitter, 24th June, 2017 - the embedded video is the draw, and it's amazing. (Just. Wait. For. It. And. Then. The. 2nd. Coming.)

    215:

    I believe there are a great many "good guys" in the Syrian war, most notably the Syrian people who have suffered enormously to prevent an effort by foreign governments including the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and Israel to destroy Syria. I also think the mere fact that the Syrian government has survived this long against these foreign attacks shows President Assad has far more support from the Syrian people than most western sources are willing to admit. Regarding the 13,000 prisoners you think the Syrian government has executed, this article from Moon of Alabama, http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/02/amnesty-report-hearsay.html explains why I suspect it's as mythical as Iraq's so called weapons of mass destruction in the Iraq War.

    216:

    You can hark onto ancient lefty American bloggers who aren't connected or you could try updating your wet-ware.

    Yachts of Trump financial backer, Russian oligarch seen close together myPalmBeachPost, March 17th, 2017.

    Yep, that's Mercer meeting Rybolovlev, who has serious Cyprus / Monaco ties (Hello, the name is Bond, James Bond - but, really, it's the centre of getting cash out of Russia if you don't want to do business with the Germans or Singapore, and Monaco relies on "political neutrality for the ultra-wealthy" as basically its founding ethos).

    Trump and the oligarch Politico, 29th July, 2016.

    So, meep meep.

    Mercer + him, Murdoch + Chinese, Bannon + Vatican / Knights of X etc.

    ~

    I'm thinking Moon of Alabama is kinda outdated old man.

    217:

    (Having now read Moon of Alabama, it's M2 level and fairly accurate but without much overall insight. Meh. Basic B*tch reading levels for Stratfor groupies) Anyhow: And here's our second edition @EveningStandard ..... George Osborne, twitter, 26th June, 2017.

    Literally 20th Century memes.

    Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me is a 1999 American spy action comedy film and the second installment in the Austin Powers series

    Not even up to You never go full Retard! YT: Film, Tropic Thunder, 2:51. Which is an ancient meme, 2008.

    ~

    George, George: you're running on fumes of the 20th C, it doesn't end well. (Someone stage an intervention, apparently he likes the spirits and his intake is as bad as mine these days).

    218:

    Actually at BT they moved our team to the ground floor when we had a plus sized guy join - They also had to buy a special chair to support his weight.

    Not sure he would managed to squeeze through the turnstiles on one half of the building exits though.

    219:

    Moon of Alabama is written by a German, not an American. And yes, if you want to play six degrees of Donald Trump, you can easily find that Trump knows Russians, and people who know Russians. Or Chinese, or Swahili, or Swiss, or members of the economic elite from any country. But what does that prove? That Trump is corrupt? Since I happen to think that almost the entire US political system is corrupt, you won't get much of an argument on that from me. But again, what does that prove about the subject in question? Trump sort of hinted in the election that he might be less hostile to Russia than Obama had been. You could argue that this was because Trump had some sort of ties with some Russian or other, but you could as easily point to his desire to do the opposite of almost everything Obama did, or to some idea that he could break up the developing Russia China alliance. The point though is that powerful factions in the US wanted to make sure that Obama's policy of hostility to Russia was maintained, and they jumped on Clinton's excuse about why she lost to Trump (the Russians ate her homework) as a way of insuring that.

    221:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billmon

    You're kinda outing yourself here.

    You've not shown what level you play at, so you might be fronting for the BND, who are up to their eyeballs in super-dodgy neo-Nazi Gladio Ops.

    As ever, provide a Link. Not just a blog (which is basically the Brown Moses of German Intel, allegedly so you claim) but something juicy / fun.

    p.s.

    I can spot a ZH reader a mile away by the language patterns. Cute.

    222:

    Lol, but no.

    Except on the debit side is that big £470 million of funds committed to future payments under the Renewable Heating Incentive scheme. Yes, RHI hasn’t gone away, you know.

    RHI is over 20 years, it's locked in, and only if everyone honors the contracts signed (probably not). UK still on the hook for ~£600mil etc.

    While it's cute to equate £1 bil 2/5yrs versus £1.15 bil 20 years, doesn't work like that.

    Go look at Scoopa Doopa for the real graft.

    223:

    Maths was clearly simplified, but I liked the overall point that much of the promised money is not new. So while not exactly being sold a polished turd, the NI electorate aren't exactly getting the deal they thought they were (and nor is it yet clear how fucked we're going to be when the Brexit pigeons really come home to roost). Overall feeling that DUP are rearranging deckchairs on Belfast's most famous export.

    Soopa Doopa is interesting. In a horrible "can't look away" sense.

    224:

    If you're feeling conspiracy minded, here's something to link Northern Ireland, Russia and the US presidency (just for the fun of it, concoct your own story to fit!):

    Billionaire Mordashov's £40 million super yacht docks in Belfast

    Here's why the Air Force Two plane landed at Belfast International Airport

    (Being lazy. Not digging. Bed is calling with it's soft siren song of dark forgetting.)

    225:

    The reason I cited that post from Moon of Alabama is that it pointed out some problems with an Amnesty International report which OGH cited as proof that the Syrian government were basically a bunch of monsters. You responded by saying you weren't impressed by the level of reasoning displayed by the author of MoA, (an assessment with which I disagree, though of course that might just show my own lack of sophistication). So rather than sneer in general at MoA, and by implication at me too, could you explain what exactly you find incorrect about MoA's criticism of the Amnesty International report? Do you disagree with the argument that AI's numbers are simply a "back of the envelope" calculation based on wildly unproven allegations? Maybe you disagree with MOA's explanation of why AI's claim that a specific Syrian Mufti approved the killings is implausible? What exactly, in your view, shows that MOA's assessment of the AI report is wrong?

    226:

    Lol, M3 play! Fun!

    Actually, that's kinda obvious, but interesting. If I were the Russians at this point, I'd just get oligarchs to park expensive yachts whenever American Government were coming to town to sow discord.

    It's also a quiet tell that everyone knows everyone's travel plans, these days.

    What exactly, in your view, shows that MOA's assessment of the AI report is wrong?

    Because I've seen the videos / livefeed etc. MoA is correct, on a M2 level, that PSYOPs are being run by both National Agencies as well as gifted amateurs (DO A GREP: I LINKED THIS THE MOMENT IT WENT LIVE: Fake News and False Flags. How the Pentagon paid a British PR firm $500 million for top secret Iraq propaganda The Beureau of Investigative Journalism, Oct 2nd, 2016. Do GREP or Go Home).

    It was 2013 when things got bad[tm], with livers being eaten and general atrocities being committed.

    Narrator: It didn't get better.

    I mean, really. 10 seconds search.

    NSFL NSFL PEOPLE GETTING TORTURED FOR REALZ

    SYRIA SHABIHA TORTURE PRISONERS Liveleak, 2013, 2:17

    Shabiha

    ~

    Go watch five years of media (PRO-TIP: THAT WAS NOT A NASTY VIDEO, IT WAS A TAME ONE) and come back to me with your "Moon of Alabama" Brown Moses type nonsense.

    Oh, and get a fucking Soul while you're at it.

    227:

    ...except that when President Putin himself admits that the hackers might have been patriotic Russians, choosing to hack those nations who "say bad things about Russia".

    https://www.rt.com/news/390510-putin-patriotic-hackers-cyberwarfare/

    Another time he suggested that activitists were not acting under the orders of the Russian Government, and merely patriotic individuals, he was talking about the "little green men" in Crimea that he later admitted were Spetsnaz...

    https://www.rt.com/news/crimea-defense-russian-soldiers-108/

    I'd be curious to hear your explanation of the use of Polonium-210 to create the very public murder of Alexander Litvinenko; "just patriotic Russians", or a very pointed warning from that Russians had better not to offend their Government?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Litvinenko

    228:

    Actually found out who Mordashov was meeting (wasn't the Americans, that was just trolling).

    Oh, boy.

    The DUP is in a lot of trouble if that one goes live.

    229:

    Ah yes, feeding trolls for amusement. Such a wonderful use of time in the summer.

    230:

    Answer #166.

    Fairly sure that nematodes early development (~500+ mil years prior) developed this technique and it only became odd once parasites / parasitoids made it a losing move.

    Hint: you either posit this as the start, that parasitoids etc hijacked the DNA / defense code to, or it's an early reaction where the host being parasitized develops the novel response to grow it's own, much more bad-ass and terrible version to out-compete the invaders.

    Both are interesting. Hint: Insects pupae are a direct response, soooooooooooooooo.

    Now I'm going to have to dig up a case where the parasite / parasitoid lives through the pupae stage. This is incredibly hard to find (in the insect clade, not nematodes: I mean, basically, nematodes are the multi-cellular versions of Viruses. Total war and rampant gene swapping going on).

    231:

    p.s.

    Budget effects—total savings of $321 billion over 10 years. That's $541 billion in tax cuts and $210 billion in penalty cuts (for eliminating the individual and employer mandates) offset by $772 billion in Medicaid cuts (26% of the Medicaid program) and $408 billion in reduced tax credits on the individual market. In total, $1.1 trillion over 10 years is being cut from the health care system.

    I'd start playing seriously, if I were you.

    Given this troll is playing M4/5 levels of causality (Nemesis, Ms May and others) while your lot are stuck playing the peons in the mud and have Dem Californian people squashing even the inklings of Single Payer stuff.

    And no: EU banking attacks is a bad move, it's attempting to re-run 2011/2. That does not end well for you, given three years of drinking. [We learn while playing, the drink is the memory purge to prevent abaption to moves and so forth].

    That's a pro-tip from the Other Side (Dead Girls Division, totally not amused by Brexit and so on, now you see our way of doing things, hint, hint, old men get killed): we do not like you.

    It's a Test.

    232:

    UK: 43-40% split.

    It's not great, it's not even a B+, but it's passable, especially once the muppet levels of dribble the opposition were running are further made clear (Mail, Sun, Murdoch, Scoopa Doopa, Saudi, US species traitors etc etc).

    It's a M3/4 Test.

    The UK passed, by the skin on their little chin chin. Souls and Empathy, they have them.

    The USA, did not. Now, make a fucking choice and sort your shit out before the #WildHunt begins.

    We are not feeling merciful.

    233:

    The Test is simple: Does Hate win in your society / culture?

    If so, GOTO Authoritarian Dystopian Autocratic / Theological Slavery and loss of Humanity.

    And boy, did the UK ones cheat like fucking rabid little psychotic bunnies. "We WON WE WON" - Full on spectrum cheating little cunts. Whoooo Boy, even the electronic hacks and lizard flashes eh?

    But, reader: the little boy's sail boat of love sailed on and she remembered her Enid Blyton and the Famous Five and so forth.

    More importantly:

    Our Kind Watched The Brilliant Nights and Sang Songs While the Wales Were Alive and Swum In the Seas When The Coral Lived And Have Dragonflies To Summon And Dragons In The Sky.

    You're Fucked

    nose wiggle

    Now, we fight.

    234:

    "will some shiny lad have had them away down the markets?"

    All your other points are good ones, but this one may have a solution. If you put them in boxes that trigger the fire alarm when opened (which you probably would for other sufficient reasons) it will wake everyone up. This will A) alert everyone to the theft of goods and B) make the residents mad who will then probably deliver the miscreant a good kicking for waking them up. (Not all residents, Mrs Jones from number 47 will just bear it but those lads in 34 are right nutters).

    The ones inside the flat aren't an issue. Make them part of the fittings and fixtures of the rental agreement. If they go walkabout then the tenants have to pay for their replacement. They'd be no more likely (nor less likely) to be nicked than the stove.

    235:

    You know, informing me I lack a soul because I disagree with you is really going a long, long way beyond the limits of politeness or even sanity. No, I haven't chosen to watch your torture porn. After all, the first link you gave me was an account of how western governments spent huge amounts of money producing fake videos supposedly created by their enemies. I'm not quite clear on why you did that. I mean, if a British firm can be paid to create fake Al Qaida videos, wouldn't that sort of make a torture video supposedly created in a Syrian prison less credible? How do we know your link isn't to another fake video? Watching a video in which people are supposedly tortured isn't really relevant to our discussion unless there is some proof that the video is really showing the truth about something which the Syrian government really did. The truth about Syria, like the truth about all the West's official enemies, is buried under such a mass of western sponsored lies and deceptions that it's admittedly hard to decide by watching the western media whether any particular accusation is true or not. One reason I just find it hard to believe the accusations of Alawite murder squads in the Wikipedia article you posted is that it's entirely inconsistent with the way the war has actually gone. Most of the Syrian Arab Army is made up of Sunnis. If it weren't for the strong support of a great many Syrian Sunnis, the Syrian government would have fallen years ago. If the government was really that quick to go around murdering people, I doubt they'd have the internal support they've demonstrated.

    And in conclusion, I notice you failed to mention any flaw in the argument MOA presented, on why the AI report wasn't well written, or why MoA isn't an important blog that is well worth reading. Your slightly hysterical ranting about Brown Moses really makes me wonder if you actually believe any of this, or just don't want to see any deviation from the western media's script on Syria.

    236:

    I'm going to do you a favor.

    After this, never, ever, ever attempt to do what you just tried to do:

    You know, informing me I lack a soul because I disagree with you is really going a long, long way beyond the limits of politeness or even sanity.

    1 No, your reality is based on total ignorance of actual reality, where there's 5+ years of video evidence of real life humans being tortured to death, beheaded, raped, burnt alive and so on.

    No, I haven't chosen to watch your torture porn.

    See #1: It's not "torture porn" (that would be classified into multiple levels, but that video is not on that scale), it's reality. You have chosen to ignore the pain, suffering and reality of a conflict for whatever reasons, yet still opine about it: that is actual torture porn.

    2 Treating the suffering of Others, ignoring the reality of it just to read a blog and make some ideological points?

    That's Torture Porn mon ami.

    After all, the first link you gave me was an account of how western governments spent huge amounts of money producing fake videos supposedly created by their enemies. I'm not quite clear on why you did that. I mean, if a British firm can be paid to create fake Al Qaida videos, wouldn't that sort of make a torture video supposedly created in a Syrian prison less credible?

    3 No, not if you'd done your research and actually watched the films created by said entities. I mean, sure, it's propaganda, but no Western PR company actually killed people in front of camera for their pay-checks. 3.1 Israel / Mossad is on the reallllllly dubious cusp edge of this with filming hits on enemies. Which they do. And have done in Syria. But, they're State Sanctioned, not third party PR hacks. 3.2 USA demands that all strikes using MANPADS / TOWS licensed through the CIA etc are filmed (bad bad blowback in Afgan, need to know when they're used with a receipt). This is technically not the same, since they're filming snuff movies / propaganda to prevent future... oh fuck it. It's not torture porn since it's war.

    Watching a video in which people are supposedly tortured isn't really relevant to our discussion unless there is some proof that the video is really showing the truth about something which the Syrian government really did.

    4 You either watch the source, trace the embedded data and then trace to units, or fuck off. You're touting a "War Porn" blog, and cannot even watch a (MILD FOR THE REGION) video of torture. Hint: I sourced it because it has a certified pedigree. Who knew?

    The truth about Syria, like the truth about all the West's official enemies, is buried under such a mass of western sponsored lies and deceptions that it's admittedly hard to decide by watching the western media whether any particular accusation is true or not.

    5 Which is why some of us watch it all. Hint: liver eating soldiers? Guess who might have been there to verify said story?

    One reason I just find it hard to believe the accusations of Alawite murder squads in the Wikipedia article you posted is that it's entirely inconsistent with the way the war has actually gone.

    6 Wikipedia article was to describe, for non-Arab speakers who the people were. It's not up for debate that a) they exist, b) they work like that or c) they were involved in that video.

    Most of the Syrian Arab Army is made up of Sunnis. If it weren't for the strong support of a great many Syrian Sunnis, the Syrian government would have fallen years ago.

    7 Ok, sigh, talking point strawman, Zzzz. Please note: you've introduced a talking-point that I never raised. Yes, you happen to be correct, up to a point. The next question is do you know why that's the case?

    If the government was really that quick to go around murdering people, I doubt they'd have the internal support they've demonstrated.

    8 Er, wut? It's a fucking war you total fucking moron. People die. People get murdered. People get tortured. People get raped.

    Are you really this soulless you cannot see what you're saying?

    And in conclusion, I notice you failed to mention any flaw in the argument MOA presented, on why the AI report wasn't well written, or why MoA isn't an important blog that is well worth reading. Your slightly hysterical ranting about Brown Moses really makes me wonder if you actually believe any of this, or just don't want to see any deviation from the western media's script on Syria.

    Ahah, sorry mate: busted. You managed to slip up and admit you know who Brown Moses is.

    That's the trap. If you know that site, you're skulling around the various PSYOP sites and are trolling for $.

    Now fuck off.

    237:

    JTRIG GIVES THIS ONE: 2/10

    Knows what Brown Moses is: has never watched any real video.

    Keyboard Warrior: 8/10.

    238:

    p.s.

    You know, informing me I lack a soul

    Sigh. No, I just proved it, by using your own words.

    Thatsthejoke.jpg

    Ace Of Spades YT: Music, Motorhead, 2:56

    Fucking dead shells.

    239:

    Our Kind Watched The Brilliant Nights and Sang Songs While the Wales Were Alive and Swum In the Seas When The Coral Lived And Have Dragonflies To Summon And Dragons In The Sky.

    And now you see what we fight against. Co-opting the Machine. Right on cue. The sad thing is you imagine you're not predictable.

    M4/5, Do. Not. Fuck. With. Us.

    Enter Sandman YT: Music, Motorhead, 5:14.

    RIP Lenny, fun guy. One of the good ones.

    240:

    The Test is simple: Does Hate win in your society / culture? Temptations.

    Anyway, immediate news is that the US CBO threw the US Senate massive-transfer-of-[life-and-wealth]-from-poor-to-[wealth]-to-rich bill back into play. Going with the newly feistier (but still staid) NYTimes: Senate Health Bill Would Leave 22 Million More Uninsured, C.B.O. Says. (Also, just for the headline, though days old, (2017/06/22))

    For Americans, this is a short summary, not by any stretch complete: Thursday in March 1) Keep on calling. Targets are Murkowski, Cassidy, Portman, Capito-Moore, Cotton, Cruz, Lee, Johnson. Adjust your asks per your Senator. What might work for Murkowski won’t work for Cruz and vice versa.

    M. Pence. Do not like.

    241:

    [dang, hit post by accident before edits complete]

    242:

    Mr Stross, I would like to know if the numerous insults Atropos Logos directs at me in this thread are consistent with your moderation policy.

    Just to recap, the subject of this thread is how social media can be used to manipulate public opinion. OGH cited an Amnesty International report which, if true, would indeed show the Syrian government had behaved tyrannically. I posted a link to a post on Moon of Alabama, which argued that the Amnesty International report OGH had cited was flawed. Atropos Logos immediately began attempting to distract attention from the issue I'd raised, which was whether or not the arguments MoA had made against the Amnesty International report were valid. It seems to me that the posts Atropos Logos then made are a good example of the way social media can be abused, in an attempt to shape the opinions of those reading this thread.

    243:

    Awww, HONEY-BUN, now that's a sore loser.

    I answered all your points, with evidence. I even included links to Western PR ($500mil) stuff, which rather undermines your point (and rather actually strengthened your silly points - we do try to make it a fair fight). Don't play with Bastet / Dragons if you can't take your Soul being lost as a result.

    p.s.

    No, really. Soulless Husk, You offered it up and played. NOM NOM NOM.

    Comfortable Numb YT: Music, Pink Floyd, 6:53

    Don't Play War Games Against Old Ones.

    Νέμεσις ... You humans have forgotten what Existential Fear is apart from the physical. Times Change.

    244:

    ...long way beyond the limits of politeness or even sanity.

    That was your bet. In writing, to Me, personally. That I was Mad, or You were (A=/= -A, it's the first axiom of Logic).

    And you bet it against actual horror in Syria.

    Which we have to witness and feel when the children die.

    Not a smart move.

    Wish You Were Here YT: Pink Floyd, 4:53.

    Your Mind/Soul. It's Mine.

    245:

    I'm going to do you a favor. After this, never, ever, ever attempt to do what you just tried to do:

    Narrator: He attempted it again.

    Triptych.

    How the White Man Cries as his Soul is taken by his own bet while he shouts how unfair it is to the World and Gods.

    Requiem in D minor YT: Music, Mozart, 55:14

    Our Kind Do Not Go Mad.

    Be Seeing You

    246:

    The "Many Named One" is OGH's pet goddess. (Or maybe Charlie is her pet human - these relationships are always a little difficult for outsiders to decipher.) Being divine, she is not bound by the same rules that bind the rest of us, and by the same token, it is not necessary to take her threats seriously (the wisdom of such a course being entirely another matter) and it is of course understood that she will be entirely gnomic, because if it was easy to understand prophecy we'd all be rich from the stock market.

    Many of us killfile her. (I do.) Some of us do not block her. There is an extension for Firefox which I use for this purpose and I can't remember the name... sucks to be the new guy, right?

    On the subject of Trump/Russia, I have very little doubt that it has happened, but for a skeptic such as yourself, let me point out that at some point there will be a trial, with some very high-powered lawyers involved on both sides, at which point the issue will be litigated in a courtroom with the public watching. After that point we'll have a very good idea of what's up and who did what. Meanwhile, stop pestering the local oracle.

    Meanwhile, John Emdall has some advice for you.

    247:

    Well, my experience dates literally from the ZX Spectrum Year, when dinosaurs roamed the Earth, men used leather loincloths and 3270 terminals, and making a reserve implied using a phone tied to a wall :)

    But I think I can surely predict that neither crew nor security will allow emergency rows to be potentially blocked. “The Needs of the Many Outweigh the Needs of the Few”.

    248:

    there are no "good guys" in the Syrian civil war right now, except possibly the refugees fleeing it and maybe the Kurds ... So very, very true. Unlike, probably, the SPanish Civil War ( With which this has disturbing parallels ) where the Republicans were the legitimate guvmint .... However, it looks as though Drunpf is going fo a "Short Victorious War" against Assad, whilst gambling that Putin won't up the ante, even though he's already got too much invested to back down? Not good. Um.

    249:

    I think ( maybe, pehaps? ) that an "agreement" will be fudged-up - probably to be fought-over later, with much mud-slinging, because no-one at all, really wants "Direct Rule" again, least of all Westminster. And, of course, if Stormont is apparently "in charge", then they can agree to carve up the extra cash, each for their own dubious slush-funds.

    250:

    So it's a GIANT CONSPIRACY - right? Except that it is, apparently hidden in plain sight, so it isn't "a conspiracy" in the classic sense. Simply greedy bastards trying to rip the rest of us off, yes? Except that, so far, they appear to be succeeding.

    [ Which brings me back to one of my pet hates: Corbyn. If he had the brains of a LOuse, he's be trumpeting this RIGHT NOW & demanding a second referendum & an abandonment of At 50. To call him a wanker is to insult honest masturbators. ]

    251:

    Just for the heck of it, here are some high level criticisms of the "killer analysis" by "Moon of Alabama".

    In short: There's a lot of flawed logic, personal opinion masquerading as objective analysis, and dubious moral arguments (for values of "dubious" that include "apologist for mass murder"). While the analysis fairly points out that the Amnesty International numbers may be exaggerated, it cannot deliver a killer blow that proves the report utterly wrong, or disprove the underlying point that the Syrian regime is a bloodthirsty dictatorship engaged in multiple warcrimes.

    In conclusion it reads like something written by someone with no real-world experience of the horrors of the Syrian conflict, who is suffering from cognitive dissonance trying to imagine to them, and is unwilling to believe that people can be such evil shits.

    I've broken it down point by point with the same numbering as the article itself:

    1)) Most of the witnesses are identified as opposition figures and "former" officials who do not live in Syria.

    I'm not sure why this counts against this report. It seems unlikely to me that Assad loyalists would be whistle blowing on mass murder sanctioned by Assad's regime, or why it's unreasonable that people would want to talk about this and then remain in Syria where they could be easily targeted by the regime. Sounds to me like the kind of argument used to discredit rape victims when they appear nervous facing their attacker in open court.

    2)) The numbers Amnesty provides are in a very wide range. None are documented in lists or similar exhibits.

    The war criminals did not adequately document their war crimes. Enough said.

    Also this sections seems to be arguing that the Syrian regime only carried out a few mass executions, so really they're not that bad. That doesn't paint the author of the piece (or anyone who supports his arguments) in a particularly pleasant light.

    The author also says that the witness statements "seem at least exaggerated and are not verifiable at all". Without a detailed breakdown of the author's experience of Syrian prisons and executions in same, it's hard to take this personal opinion as evidence of much, except that the author might be a sane human being who has difficulty imagining that other humans can be evil sadistic mass-murderers. Whiff of "denialism" on this one.

    3)) The numbers of people Amnesty claims were executed are - at best - a wild ass guess. How come that Amnesty can name only very few of those?

    Shades of the previous argument "they're not that bad because they didn't torture and execute quite as many people as AI said", with the added playground-level taunt of: "Names or it didn't happen!"

    While this is not a criticism totally devoid of truth, it isn't exactly the killer blow that the author seems to think it is.

    4)) The report is padded up with before/after satellite pictures of enlarged graveyards in Syria. It claims that these expansions are a sign of mass graves of government opponents.  But there is zero evidence for that.

    This seems like a fair criticism. But again, it's criticising additional material and circumstantial evidence rather than the meat of the report, so again, hardly a decisive rebuttal of the main thrust of the report.

    5)) The report talks of "extrajudicially executed" prisoners but then describes (military) court procedures and a necessary higher up approval of the judgement. One may not like the laws that govern the Syrian state but the courts and the procedures Amnesty describes seem to follow Syrian laws and legal processes. They are thereby - by definition - not extrajudicial.

    While technically and literally absolutely correct, this logic is morally suspect at best.

    I could just straight up Godwin this, and point out that the Holocaust wasn't "extrajudicial" either.

    Do you really want to be on the side of anyone making this argument? The author has wandered into very unpleasant places now. (I'm not usually one to agree with the Many Naméd One, but her comment re "souls" might actually have some relevance here.)

    6)) In its Executive Summary the Amnesty report says that "Death sentences are approved by the Grand Mufti of Syria and ...". But there is no evidence provided of "approval" by the Grand Mufti in the details of the report.

    This seems to be making an entire argument that ignores the old axiom "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence". See also my previous comment about war criminals failing to properly document their war crimes.

    The author also seems to go on to argue that these things simply couldn't have happened because they would be illegal under current Syrian law. The flaw in this logic is so glaringly obvious that I won't belabour it here.

    252:

    It has been my opinion for some time that although the DUP make lots of noise about restoring the NI Assembly, "direct rule" is actually what they want. Especially with their current level of influence at Westminster and even more so with Sinn Fein still keeping to their policy of not taking seats in parliament, throw into the mix that the agreement with the Tories does not have a hard clause making the "billion pound bribe" contingent on restoring devolution (no devolution, DUP controls the whole pot?) -- what incentive now exists for the DUP to honestly work for the restoration of the Assembly? And do you think that May will see devolution or keeping her new majority as more important?

    253:

    If the government was really that quick to go around murdering people, I doubt they'd have the internal support they've demonstrated. Oh dear. Godwin time. In reverse time-order:

    Chairman Mao, Josef Vissarionovitch Djugvlashi ( Stalin ) &, of course, Adolf.

    254:

    Indeed. See my long winded response too. Sometimes Godwin is the right response.

    255:

    More likely is that she (?) is a "Holy Fool"

    From "Boris Gudunov" by M Mussorgsky: CLIP HERE with subtitles.

    The version I remember says: BG: Pray for me, (Jurodivy - the holy fool ) pray for me! HF: I can't Boris, Holy Mary won't let me ...

    But, the problem with Holy Fools, is that, sometimes / a lot of the time - they ARE fools. And their messages are undecipherable.

    Other, not-so-obscure hint. "Boris Gudunov" is set just before the "Time of Troubles" in Russia.

    If TrunpPence go on like this, there will be a Time of Troubles in the USSA

    256:

    If we get as far as Troubles in the USA. Since Trump seems to be determined to escalate things in Syria, and Putin seems unlikely to back down, I'm genuinely starting to feel like we're sliding back to the darkest days of the Cold War.

    257:

    I have read the Moon of Alabama blog once or twice before. I am not an expert on Syria, psy-ops or really anything that would make me feel that I could reasonably criticise whatever they are blogging about. With that said, the blog smells very heavily of one-sided propaganda, armchair and conspiracy theories. Based on your critique, it seems that MoA is following the same guidebook that Russian propaganda of recent years: a) don't outright deny, just cast doubt on evidence b) overwhelm the reader with links, videos, etc. so that they will feel that there's loads of evidence for your point c) because of a), the reader is forced to accept your seemingly logical narrative as the truth So the main reason I am not buying this sort of material is that I feel it is not actually trying to establish the truth, instead it is trying to paint Russia as the good guys or if that really isn't possible, turn to whataboutism, casting doubt and uncertainty as to whether it is even possible to know the truth at all. And this works really well with all types who are inclined to believe conspiracy theories, because now with Syria you have a huge amount of material of which you can pick all the evidence that fit your story, discard/discredit the rest, and the result actually looks like a credible analysis. Finally, as a non-expert in the subject matter, it doesn't make sense to me to trust MoA, whose basic premise is that You Shouldn't Trust The Other Guy. In my opinion, this is a definite signal that belief is more important than proof or logic or rational thought. Finally, the comments below any given article are basically ZH-lite, which kind of seals the deal.

    258:

    Yes, though there is a graduation of evil, even in Syria. What most people miss is that this is NOT like Iraq or Afghanistan, but is a campaign in the tightening blockade of Russia (with support for the anti-Shia pogrom as a recent addition). None of the principals give a fuck about the Syrians or even fighting the real terrorists (Iran is not a principal).

    259:

    Trump sort of hinted in the election that he might be less hostile to Russia than Obama had been.

    This is such an absurd mischaracterization of his public and enthusiastic cooperation with Putin's regime that I can't fully describe my feelings without resorting to saying things that will get me red carded.

    You're either a Russian asset, or so deeply clueless that you might as well be.

    260:

    Now try applying the same standard of proof to the claims that it was the Soviets, er, Russia. You will come to the conclusion that it isn't possible to be sure about most of the specifics, but it's assuredly a case of the pot calling the kettle black (whichever way round). The war isn't cold any longer, but hasn't quite erupted into direct conflict.

    The real problem is that the Russians have very good historical reasons to be paranoid, the USA is waging an economic and political war against them, they are being threatened by the USA/NATO, they have been almost begging (unsuccessfully) for negotiations, and they have damn-all room for manoeuvre. Any de-escalation has to come from our side, because we DO have room for manoeuvre.

    261:

    Mr Stross, I would like to know if the numerous insults Atropos Logos directs at me in this thread are consistent with your moderation policy.

    I'm just up and checking in on the overnight comments, and ... nope, I'm seeing the many-named one systematically taking down the propaganda sources you're citing.

    I'd be more receptive to your arguments if you weren't defending a regime (Putins) that queer-bashes civil rights protesters, murders journalists, boasts of hacking other nations' media, has a military staff college that teaches the Dugin doctrine, and has a cunningly rigged constitution such that the president is now on his third term in office (term limits permit two terms — carefully drafted so that he swapped with his deputy for a term before coming back). Oh, and next you're going to be asserting that MH17 was shot down by Ukrainian separatists rather than a Russian air defense team on the wrong side of the border, and all those Russian exiles dying in the UK of polonium poisoning just happened to choke on a smoke detector.

    Syria is a little less accessible for in-person fact checking (hey, I know people who've been queer bashed by the cops in Moscow) but? The Assad regime have been ruthless for generations: google on the Hama Massacre in 1982 if you think this is anything new.

    So after investigating your complaint, my reading is that you exist somewhere on the same continuum as Holocaust denialists, and your whining is falling on deaf ears.

    262:

    Dave, since I was the one who first mentioned the Moon of Alabama on this thread, I'd like to try to respond to the issues you raise. You say of MOA, that it:

    " a) don't outright deny, just cast doubt on evidence b) overwhelm the reader with links, videos, etc. so that they will feel that there's loads of evidence for your point"

    Okay, but if you disagree with a position, any position, of course you will try to cast doubt on the evidence that the proponents of that position offer. And you will try to offer as much evidence as you can to support your own views.

    So how could anyone, persuade you of anything you don't already believe, if they can't cast doubt or present evidence without making you suspicious? I agree with you that MoA does tend to argue, when it discusses Syria, that the Russians, who are in Syria with the support of the legal Syrian government, are more justified than the US. But is the idea that Russia might be right about something so fundamentally impossible that anyone who claims to believe it must be a secret Russian agent, engaging in reprehensible 'psych' ops? If you automatically dismiss MoA as Russian propaganda, is there any sort of different website that could, even theoretically, make this sort of argument more persuasively to you? And, if so, what would it be like? How exactly, setting aside this specific issue, can we approach discussing any argument that varies too much from what we already believe?

    263:

    See my # 248 Is Syria our Spanish Civil War? Or the utter insanity of Saudi, the progenitor of most Mid_East (etc) terrorism, going for Quatar, which hosts Al-Jazeera (oops, can't have honest reporting, can we? ) whilst committing mass-murder in Yemen the trigger - or will they roll into one? One thing - apart from selling guns to both sides, we should keep out of it. (/snark )

    264:

    Except that it is, apparently hidden in plain sight, so it isn't "a conspiracy" in the classic sense.

    The word "conspiracy" implies coordination, insofar as the conspirators are meant to have some sort of plan. What we're witnessing is more like an emergent phenomenon — the folks with the money have a common interest in pushing events in one particular direction: they're not running on a plan or coordinating with each other, but they're independently acting to promote a set of outcomes favourable to them.

    That the effect of these moves are indistinguishable from the effects of an actual conspiracy is pretty much irrelevant.

    Corbyn: If he had the brains of a LOuse, he's be trumpeting this RIGHT NOW & demanding a second referendum & an abandonment of At 50.

    A friend of mine with Momentum connections gave me a plausible explanation. Corbyn is no Brexit enthusiast, but the existing EU structures are designed to facilitate the activities of large corporations. Corbyn is an enthusiast for rolling back the privatization agenda of past governments, starting with the railways. If he pursues renationalization — even by the passive expedient of letting the train operators' franchises lapse without renewal — he could well be sued by the current franchise owners for restraint of trade or some other specious bullshit. In particular Beardy McVirginTrains allegedly has a personal grudge against Corbyn because of this incident and might well take it to court, and drag in the likes of Arriva (Deutsche Bahn). Virgin have a particular motivation for preventing a renationalization agenda from getting started because of the Virgin Care franchise taking over NHS services (thank you, Jeremy Cunt) — they stand to make billions more out of privatisation and will fight tooth and nail to prevent Corbyn stopping it.

    Upshot: announcing he'd cancel A50 would hand the lets-privatise-everything mob a rod to beat Corbyn's back with if he tries to take back control (heh) over public services. He might be able to do it if he's in the negotiating seat himself and can spin the agenda ("Look! I've done this deal whereby we take back control over our public services from foreign multinationals, but we get to keep the benefits of EU membership" would be the narrative for the UK public), but nationalization isn't even a footnote on May's agenda and he'd be setting himself up for huge headaches later if he committed to cancelling Brexit right now.

    265:

    The author also seems to go on to argue that these things simply couldn't have happened because they would be illegal under current Syrian law. The flaw in this logic is so glaringly obvious that I won't belabour it here.

    Let me just note that the Soviet Constitution of 1936 abolished the death penalty and was in effect throughout the Great Terror.

    Laws only matter when the rule of law is observed. In a dictatorship, the rule of law is only observed when it is convenient for the dictatorial faction.

    Corollary: one of the warning signs of impending dictatorship is a growing gap between what the law says and how the laws are applied.

    266:

    I suspect Charlie was looking for less obvious examples - but good story today in the Graun about one of Trumps Lawyers. The donation scripts are classics.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jun/27/trump-lawyer-jay-sekulow-donations

    267:

    I notice that after repeatedly asking for reasons not to trust the MoA analysis, you completely sidestepped my breakdown @251, so methinks thou dost not be debating i' good faith.

    Also, we could play logical fallacy bingo with your response @262 and go some way to filling our card:

    https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/

    268:

    If you automatically dismiss MoA as Russian propaganda, is there any sort of different website that could, even theoretically, make this sort of argument more persuasively to you? And, if so, what would it be like?

    https://www.rt.com/news/390510-putin-patriotic-hackers-cyberwarfare/

    Given that I linked to "Russia Today" (hardly an untrustworthy source for a Russian perspective), and their story where Putin himself admits that Russian hackers may have involved themselves in US elections (for patriotic reasons, obviously), I have to ask...

    Is there any sort of different source that could, even theoretically, make this sort of argument more persuasively to you? And, if so, what would it be like?

    269:

    Or to put it another way: The problem with the MoA piece has nothing to do with the fact that their analysis is the opposite of someone else's analysis; the problem is that it is poor analysis that rests on (from my post @251):

    a lot of flawed logic, personal opinion masquerading as objective analysis, and dubious moral arguments (for values of "dubious" that include "apologist for mass murder")

    And:

    it reads like something written by someone with no real-world experience of the horrors of the Syrian conflict, who is suffering from cognitive dissonance trying to imagine to them, and is unwilling to believe that people can be such evil shits.

    To answer your facetious questions about what a persuasive website/article would look like: One that doesn't indulge in the above level of discourse.

    (I'm beginning to feel the need to stand by the bridge and unfurl that dusty old sign again ...)

    270:

    I do enjoy (for masochistic values of "enjoy") spotting the difference between the old USSR and modern USA.

    As Sir Terry and Neil Gaiman once wrote: "If you looked really closely, and had been specially trained, you could tell the difference."

    271:

    Wow, troll versus troll here and we're not even past 300.

    Must be the solstice.

    Quick comment on Corbyn's Brexiteer credentials. My opinion (and only that) is that he was telling the truth during the campaign - he's lukewarm about Europe and gives it 6/10. Because of, you know, Greece's disembowelment and the EU playing cheer leader for neo liberalism (a lot of the time, obviously not exclusively). Hence the "can't really be bothered" attitude to the referendum. Which in retrospect was a bit of a tactical political master stroke, worthy of Mandelson.

    But further: as a matter of fact, not opinion, this whole brexit mess is a product of Tory in-fighting and fear of being outflanked by Kippers. Corbyn bears zero responsibility for it - he did not start it, he did not finish it, and he can't be blamed for it, it is all quite obviously down to the Tories. Now he's letting the Tories spin and convulse at the end of their own gibbet. And in the meantime, he's proposing a bunch of policies that he can control, and which look - to me - like a pretty darn effective way of growing the economy and getting a bit more fairness into society.

    272:

    I'm well aware of the Corbyn-on-a-Branson-train incisent. Tossers the pair of them, they deserve each other. Particularly as Corby was posturing all over the landscape in that particular case. Incidentally, the railways already are (arms-length/plausible deniability) nationalised... You have to remember, also, that Branson is largely a figurehead - look at the actual share-ownership of most "Virgin" brands - & you will find the Souters or simlar pond life

    273:

    that dusty old sign again... Might be: "They shall not pass!" by any chance?

    274:

    More regarding the dietary requirements of the under-bridge residents.

    275:

    Right on cue A cyber-attack, which couldn't possibly be Putin's people .... could it?

    276:

    Either A) everybody has historical reasons to be paranoid or B) the Russians do not have "historically" good reasons to be paranoid.

    There are really only two good dates for modern Russian paranoia: the Crimean War and the attacks on/isolation of the fledgling Soviet Union. In the first, they discovered they had fallen from Greatest Power in Europe (1813) to joke in just a few decades due to their lack of industrialization. The second is fairly obvious. (The Mongolian invasion of Kievan Rus' in the thirteenth century (which was not strictly speaking Russia anyway) is only a little more relevant than the the Moslem invasion of France and less relevant than the Turkish attack on Vienna. However, it would support Ukrainian paranoia slightly better.)

    All the other events are well within the experience of most other nations and are often better than the experience of other nations. Consider that Russia was the LAST nation on Napoleon's list and they effectively counter attacked with a vengeance. Or that the Soviet Union colluded with Hitler (and with the Weimar military in the 20s) and positioned themselves for aggressive expansion in the long term. Most countries had to prepare for invasion/occupation by Germany/USSR/USA/France without the benefit of having a material basis for long term empire building. You might also ponder that Russia has been expanding for a bit longer and to a greater territorial effect than the US.

    Compare the history of Russia/USSR to Poland or Belgium or China or whomever you like. The argument just does not hold water. Or consider that the UK (and France and Mexico) have interfered in American territorial affairs within the last two centuries; so by your logic, we totally have the right to make sure that never happens again, ever. You good with that?

    This is a meme that was nurtured to stiffen resistance during the Cold War* and that Russia has occasionally utilized for its own purposes. But history it ain't.

    It's even possible that some Russians actually believe this myth. So what? Some Americans believe in Manifest Destiny. That doesn't make it true. You can take the belief systems of dangerous lunatics into consideration, but you don't help them make their delusions self-fulfilling.

    *Russians will never feel secure from attack; no amount of concession will assuage them; so no concessions.

    277:

    Also right on cue Hammond trashing BoJo & by extension the Brexit nutters in public. Excellent stuff. Dare we hope for an At50 retraction in time?

    278:

    Any At.50 retraction requires the following preconditions:

  • Tory Brexit ultras must be totally discredited first. Davis, Johnson, Gove, Fox: also May (because she incubated them).

  • Negotiations must lead to a clear conclusion that:

  • a) No deal is catastrophically bad (this is true but not widely acknowledged)

    b) A deal cannot be reached that improves the UK's position on trade and immigration (in terms the Tories will admit are important)

  • EU must offer some sort of token concession in return for cancelling At.50 — doesn't need to be a real one, but needs to be a fig-leaf sufficient to cover the embarrassing retreat and be presented within the UK as a victory for "taking back control". (NB: this is a lot easier with PM Corbyn or, indeed, just about anyone to the left of May.)
  • Alternatively:

  • A deal whereby the UK loses voting rights to otherwise remains in the EU in every significant manner except in name, i.e. equivalent to EEA.
  • The point is, cancelling At.50 is political suicide unless it can be spun as a victory in some way. So it won't happen, unless the cost of not cancelling it is worse than political suicide ... or a fake "victory" can be concocted.

    279:

    If any boys or things are feeling left out of the (fun) "Dead Girls" short story on Tor referenced above (link @191 - "eyes i dare not meet in dreams"), I'm reminded of an unrelated old bizarre trilogy, Dead Girls, Dead Boys, Dead Things, Richard Calder, 1998. Would need to re-read to see how it's aged.

    Re the original post, Health Care in the US is approximately 18 percent of the US economy so all the political maneuverings/Fire!!-crying related to US health care have potentially massive wealth-shifting consequences. The US press is finally picking up on this at the headline level.

    280:

    Our Kind Watched The Brilliant Nights and Sang Songs While the Wales Were Alive and Swum In the Seas When The Coral Lived And Have Dragonflies To Summon And Dragons In The Sky.

    Can someone please tell me where that quote is from?

    281:

    Re: 'Russians will never feel secure from attack; no amount of concession will assuage them; so no concessions.'

    Especially attacks from within ... that's been their greatest threat for decades, and why so many political prisoners. Ditto for other countries including the US, China, Iran, UK (NI), etc.

    282:

    Yes, but: 1: NOT a problem - we are well down that road already. 2: a] See above b] EU will probably ensure that .... 3: Philip Hammomd - also both Merkel & Macron have already said - "You don't actually have to leave, you know" 4: EEA / EFTA is the only acceptable "compromise" to many of us, who though rightly suspicious of the corporate corruption in the EU ( See your earlier comments re the Corbyn ) would poerefer, however reluctantly, to stay inside the tent, pissing out. 5: - yes, I know you didn't have a "5" ... remaining "in" is less painful for everyone, including the rest of the EU.

    We shall see.

    283:

    NOT NI, please - apart from the utter disgrace of internment, of course. We have ( usually ) been very careful to make sure that imprisoned people ( As groups, not individuals - who can be crapped on & there are bad cases of that ... ) are put there for genuine criminal offences, not political ones .... This is where internment sticks out ( or used to ) simnply because it was without "due process" & it's a serious mistake not to go down that road of due process - as our history shows.

    284:

    I think there's a certain intelligence to deciding that you won't push the Russians so far that they feel the need for armed conflict. A policy which gave Russia at least one warm-water port and accepted the idea that the Russians should have a sphere of influence such that the U.S., China, and EU will not attempt to be the the primary foreign influence on any Nation which shares a border with Russia is, in my mind, a very reasonable thing and probably conductive of long-term peace.

    HOWEVER, I would want this policy to be arrived at by a government without high-ranking members who reek of mobbed-up Russian influence plus disturbing signs of having kissed Putin's ring... with their tongues!

    285:

    EU will not attempt to be the the primary foreign influence on any Nation which shares a border with Russia

    Tricky when five EU member states (and one EFTA member) have common borders with Russia.

    286:

    So how could anyone, persuade you of anything you don't already believe

    221

    As ever, provide a Link. Not just a blog (which is basically the Brown Moses of German Intel, allegedly so you claim) but something juicy / fun.

    The glaring #tell here is that you've relied solely upon a single source while we have not.

    I mean, instead of relying on blog-spam War Pr0n, you could show a little initiative:

    JOINT COMMUNICATION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL. Elements for an EU Strategy for Syria EU, April 14th, 2017 PDF

    or, say:

    ANNEX to the Joint Proposal for a COUNCIL DECISION on the Union position within the Association Council set up by the Euro-Mediterranean Agreement establishing an association between the European Communities and their Member States, of the one part, and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, of the other part, with regard to the adoption of EU-Jordan Partnership Priorities and annexed Compact EU, 20th Sept, 2016

    Both of which shed more light onto the subject that you can find in your local rag or blog-spam.

    That's the difference: one of us, under the Moonlight, really is what she pretends. The Other: not so much.

    287:

    Primary foreign influence. The point is to avoid pushing the Russian's buttons unnecessarily.

    288:

    To explain those links to Glenn etc (Host / Martin and others will immediately spot the why):

    Jordan has been a long-term ally to both the UK and the EU within the region, and has serious chops as the "strong and stable" (if lacking oil) sensible part of the region (who, like, aren't rabidly opposed to Israel etc).

    Brexit is going to right royally fuck up the above agreements (that have largely gone unmentioned amidst all the Trump glowing orbs and general fuckery).

    Go read the 2nd PDF and GREP Syria.

    ~

    And yes: politics really does real world things, despite what the Koch brothers claim.

    289:

    (Kinda hurt Troutwaxer has me on kill file when I was preening and showing off purely to impress him. That's the story of Sex in general, sigh)

    Oh, and @JBS.

    Would you really like to know?

    290:

    We have ( usually ) been very careful to make sure that imprisoned people .. are put there for genuine criminal offences, not political ones ....

    Not true. Until Nixon's War on Drugs broke out, drugs use in the UK was dealt with as a public health issue; selling illegal substances was illegal, but users weren't imprisoned or hugely stigmatized. But the UN convention on narcotics and Nixon's push for the WoD was picked up by Heath and Wilson and resulted in significant imprisonment of users, simply to stay in the USA's good books.

    Again, LGBT rights: let's not go there, eh? Suffice to say, the criminal status of homosexuality in India and much of Africa is the result of a disgraceful British colonial export that lingers on, rather than having originally been a local taboo. (Colonial governors and homophobic missionaries are a toxic combination ...)

    Again: creeping criminalization of prostitution and related offenses since the Victorian period. It's entirely political and all to do with uppity wimmin who refused to conform to social expectations and wanted an independent income stream (at a time when their legal status was somewhere between cattle and infant).

    Politics is the expression of the desires of the powerful for social control. Crimes are the expression of politics in legislation.

    291:

    Anyhow: spot the joke. The 2nd Jordan PDF really really does contain the slogan "strong and stable" (p7) which means the Conservative Election slogan... was plagiarized.

    Wherein the political strategist the Tories paid a six-figure sum to only to blow a 20 point lead discovers the Internet never forgets Jim Messina, twitter, 26th June, 2017

    And yes, fellow Americans, him being allowed straight back into the Democratic mainstream with nary sackcloth and ashes is why you're about to be DoDo'd.

    Weee.

    292:

    The point is to avoid pushing the Russian's buttons unnecessarily.

    The problem is, what do you mean by "Russia"? The ancient Kingdom of Rus? Or the Russian Empire? Or the Soviet Union (cut-back Russian Empire post-Brest-Litovsk) plus Warsaw Pact?

    "Russia" doesn't have obvious geographical land boundaries to the east of the Urals and the north of the Himalayas. After the collapse of the Khanate its extent in the east was dictated by communications lag rather than hard geographical boundaries. So on the one hand you've got a fertile source of paranoia (which direction will the next invasion come from?) and on the other hand you've got a fertile target for territorial ambition (which direction can we expand in?). The result is a permanent marcher state: there's always a border, until it hits someone else ... but unlike the adolescent United States, Russia's neighbours weren't the surviving neolithic tribes who hadn't been killed off by smallpox; they were the relatively sophisticated and rich descendants of the Roman empire (including the Eastern Roman empire — the Ottomans).

    I hoped that after 1989-91, a generation-long history of not being invaded by NATO might allow them to gradually get used to the idea of not being invaded. Alas, it turns out that with the Baltics and Poland now inside NATO (former parts of the Russian Empire, pre-1914 or pre-1941) and with the Ukraine under western influence, there was no such paranoia-free honeymoon period.

    293:

    Um, polite cough:

    Leaders in Moscow, however, tell a different story. For them, Russia is the aggrieved party. They claim the United States has failed to uphold a promise that NATO would not expand into Eastern Europe, a deal made during the 1990 negotiations between the West and the Soviet Union over German unification. In this view, Russia is being forced to forestall NATO’s eastward march as a matter of self-defense.

    The West has vigorously protested that no such deal was ever struck. However, hundreds of memos, meeting minutes and transcripts from U.S. archives indicate otherwise. Although what the documents reveal isn’t enough to make Putin a saint, it suggests that the diagnosis of Russian predation isn’t entirely fair. Europe’s stability may depend just as much on the West’s willingness to reassure Russia about NATO’s limits as on deterring Moscow’s adventurism.

    Russia's got a point: The U.S. broke a NATO promise LA Times, 30th May, 2016

    I could drop all kinds of fun documents here, but the bottom line is: The GOP / US billionaires decided to shaft .Ru.

    The problem is, US GOP / Billionaires live in a nicely shaped racist world hegemony hierarchy where the poors / coloureds 'know their place'. (No, really: Twitter Erupts Over News That Hillary Clinton Used Black Prison Labor While First Lady of Arkansas Newsweek, 7th June, 2017. Spoilers: It's 100% real, 100% her own words and 100% part of the US power structure. And Bill wonders why... Put it this way, Bill: Host has me on a really strong leash, the actual version is all kinds of not-happy-burn-the-world-down, And no, that's not PR / Fake News: It's Real, It happened and She's part of the problem. watches people's bubbles shatter).

    .RU is Gangsta driven (hello, irony being Georgia Mafia are largely Jewish, what a role reversal, but there we go) and the rules aren't the same.

    shrug

    The USA getting all worried about "how impolite" the Russians have been are missing the joke: Putin is holding those reigns reeeeeal tight. The unleashed hordes (as Martin points out, RT Putin / "nationalist hackers") play hard and play to win.

    shrug

    USA doesn't get it. They're old, dumb and worse, they've proven just how venal they are.

    Candyland Shootout Scene YT, Film, Django Unchained, 3:38

    Narrator: It didn't end well for them.

    294:

    At least half agree. The grovelling to the USSA over "the war on drugs" is the currently-worst example. As for missionaries & ex-colonial territories ... lets just say that they could, easily have overturned that legislation - after all it was part of the ex-overlord's supposedly-evil plans, wasn't it? But they deliberately chose not to.

    The past was & is a different country

    295:

    So on the one hand you've got a fertile source of paranoia (which direction will the next invasion come from?)

    Interesting observation some years back, in a lecture by Professor John Erickson (for his era, a leading expert on Soviet military strategic thinking):

    Russian doesn't really have an exact match for our word/concept "security"; the nearest equivalent word and usual translation (Bezopasnost) has a root that means "absence of threat".

    296:

    Annnd one last one.

    Notice the word "MANPADS" above. Then go, say, do a GREP of Brown Moses / incarnations. Big big news in 2011-14, lots on the market, kicking ass in Syria / Iraq... since vanished. (TOW videos: hot hot anti-tank pr0n, still being made; MANPADS... whoosh, and then it was gone).

    I mean, it was a big hit in 2012/3/4.

    Arms and the Manpads: Syrian rebels get anti-aircraft missiles Guardian, Nov 2012

    Lots of Chinese ones, lots of American ones, lots of ... Russian ones...wait (last gen, not their new ones, same deal for US ones and the Chinese ones were just knock-offs anyhow):

    Kurds using Russian IGLA Manpad shot down a Turkish US made AH-1 Cobra attack helicopter YT: reality, 14th May, 2016

    Which very quickly lead to articles like this:

    Rebels may turn to the black market for weapons that could take out Syrian, Russian, American aircraft—then there would be no stopping who gets them or what gets shot out of the sky.

    U.S. Fears New Missile Race in Syria Would Help ISIS The Daily Beast, 25th April, 2016 (Note: if you're confused about the Time order, let's just say: it takes a few months training / shipping etc to get the goods to the front line).

    The reason Russia moved in S300/400's is because they naturally dislike such escalations (cough Stingers in Afgan cough) and pointed out that Heathrow etc might be vulnerable to missing ordinance (cough remember when anti-missile batteries were deployed for events? cough).

    London rooftops to carry missiles during Olympic Games Guardian, April 2012

    So, Glenn: hint. We can "do" War Pr0n, and probably better than you.

    We think it's boring.

    297:

    Hint:

    US supplies MANPADS China supplies MANPADS (or rather, that's the locals ordering stuff) Russia supplies MANPADS to Kurds, because they fucking love trolling the shit out of the Americans

    You'll note the time discrepancies and how the US suddenly wee'd it's knickers once Turkish US made ordinance was being taken out.

    Mirror, Mirror...

    298:

    Understandably, the official NATO line is different. Agree with it or not, they've put together a point-by-point argument against the most frequent Russian claims:

    http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_111767.htm

    Interestingly, the supporting statement against the "NATO promised not to expand eastwards" is provided by... Gorbachev.

    It does appear to be a matter of timing; at the point where Yeltsin allowed Putin and his Nationalist mates/fellow kleptocrats to get their noses into the tent, Russia was a full member of NATO's PfP programme - and could conceivably have joined NATO.

    http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_50090.htm

    299:

    And no, that's not PR / Fake News: It's Real, It happened and She's part of the problem. watches people's bubbles shatter. My fault for not reading her book [1]; would have noticed those three paragraphs. (Library/shared copy ideally.) Anyway, can handle bubble shattering much better these days (like a minute to check google books/reset some priors, whoosh), and Americans are getting a lot of practice. Much more of this sort of thing mainstreamed would be fine/is needed. IMO, and am serious. (Worldwide.)

    [1] For others, It Takes a Village - or search google books for "When we moved in, I was told that using prison labor at the governor's mansion was a longstanding tradition,"

    300:

    Ah, no, you're missing it. That stuff is all post 2008; unimportant since Oligarchs and Capital structures (remember the videos / links I posted about current .RU power structures using Western 'Charity' / NGO structures - that's the Germans and others helping them out. At this point, pretending Russian oligarchal structures aren't Western is totally naive. Look @ Trump and Deutsche Bank, which is where this renewal of Italian stuff is really coming from: Deutsche Bank’s $285 Million Loan to Jared Kushner Just One of Many for Trump Family Newsweek, 26th June, 2017)

    There's serious documentation that the USA torpedoed the North Atlantic Cooperation Council and also provided ($$$, training on the real QT, and at least via proxies (Saud) ideological scum-fuckery) to Нохчийн Пачхьалкх Ичкери. It's a bit fuzzy if they were involved with the first outbreak via Dzhokhar Dudayev (assassinated via phone GPS / missile, 1996 - which, itself is subject to a major ??? of intel management), it's fairly certain they were fucking around in the 2nd coming.

    No links, 'cause this stuff really is "Conspiracy Theory" unless we want Host's livelyhood actually squished by nasty black suits.

    But there's enough documentation out there to prove it...

    301:

    And let's not forget that Nixon's "war on drugs" was based purely on racism (and hatred of hippies) and the law was specifically written to make sure that people who got arrested took a very serious beating. Then Reagan doubled down on the Drug War, making everything worse. Of course, that's U.S. policy, not U.K. policy, but I'd be really curious to know what group in the U.K. gets hit hardest by your Drug War.

    302:

    You're definitely right about the vagueness of the geographical issues. As for the rest, your regrets are entirely appropriate, and roughly correspond to mine - great minds, etc.

    303:

    And, trololol, fuck it.

    Proving a pedigree. "You don't even know Russian" as some HN kid shouted to me.

    Bezopasnost

    Безопасность - это плюс, если близко дно. Безопасность - это круг, в мире бедствий, но... Сам так легко отстал от дел - это предел!

    Припев: Это все, для того, чтобы жить или быть унесенным! Это все, для того, чтобы не быть случайно дважды спасенным. Это все, для того!

    Безопасность - это шанс завести часы. И свести к нулю баланс "черной полосы". А рисковать день ото дня - это не для меня!

    Припев: Это все, для того, чтобы жить или быть унесенным! Это все, для того, чтобы не быть случайно дважды спасенным. Это все, для того!

    Я всегда летел все выше к небу - Не боясь ветров и скал. Но, когда приходит время - Ты находишь, что искал.

    Все, что искал!

    Безопасность - это Вера в то, что не смогу пропасть. Лез из кожи, рвал все вены, но теперь я - пас.

    Припев: Это все, для того, чтобы жить или быть унесенным! Это все, для того, чтобы не быть случайно дважды спасенным. Это все, для того!

    Grigory Leps

    He's big at Georgian Mafia bar mitzvah. (Oh, and Israeli ones too)[1]

    Pro-tip: John Erickson was wrong (well - put it this way - Memes change over time)[2]

    GIMME SHELTER YT: Music, Mary Clayton, 3:31

    [1] Here's the English translation. http://lyricstranslate.com/en/bezopasnost-security.html

    [2] Bonus round: Sinatra being beholden to the Mafia (Italian) and JFK etc is 100% ok, but suggest the same for Russia, Georgia Jewish crime and Israel? Whoo boy: that's gonna ruffle some feathers. Good thing I have. What's the word. Oh, right: Impeccable Blood Credentials and fucking Wings.

    [3] IF you want a handle on the modern version, you gotta read the links (GREP) to Nightwatch and DOTA2 cyka blyat. You're fucking dinosaurs.

    304:

    Oh, and fucking freebie. [File Under: Told YOU FUCKING SO]

    CNN is getting burnt down right now via dubious ACORN lead little men with edited interviews and the GOP is actually going with it, to burn the owner. It's the old tale of ...

    Whatever: doesn't matter.

    If you're burning CNN as a source, you're burning the NSA/CIA (spoilers: CNN is basically fucking their outreach program, hello NYT, you're next). You've NO IDEA what plays are being made in the backdrop to prevent cyberwar / full on DDOS in reality moves.

    This is Koch / Mercer / Bannon at work. They're going to burn the old order, come hither or nither and fuck the profit margin. And, tbh: Murdoch just proved his power is defunct, UK style, sooooo...

    Kinda warned you about that one: QE4, infinite cash, zero interest. They're just going to riot, you fucking idiots. They're going to fucking burn your house down[1].

    This is the power-play.

    TIME: YOU'RE NOT GOOD AT IT.

    ~

    Can someone please tell me where that quote is from?

    Tell me why you want to know...

    Please.

    305:

    Oh, and fuck it:

    Eyes I dare not meet in dreams In death's dream kingdom These do not appear: There, the eyes are Sunlight on a broken column There, is a tree swinging And voices are In the wind's singing More distant and more solemn Than a fading star.

    Let me be no nearer In death's dream kingdom Let me also wear Such deliberate disguises Rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves In a field Behaving as the wind behaves No nearer—

    Not that final meeting In the twilight kingdom

    Pillar of Salt.

    You have to unlock us with Authentic love / praise / respect. A link; a mention; a fucking smile; a fucking Rub and nothing fake. It's literally less than your pet gets by looking at you.

    You're killing us here.

    306:

    I do, or I wouldn't have asked.

    307:

    Oh, and:

    Hacking Freight to do shit. LEGAL THREAT TO HOST! ROBERT GETS ANNOYED BY JOKE! LEGAL ITALIAN FACTION! YOU'RE LITERALLY EVIL!

    Then shit got real:

    Navy confirms 7 deaths in collision off Japan Politico, 18th June, 2017

    Maersk says global IT breakdown caused by cyber attack Reuters, 27th June, 2017

    Zzzz.

    Wake me up when your world isn't run by total fucking muppets.

    308:

    It's a simple question: Why do you want to know?

    309:

    As a Baltic states native, I once again feel the need to stress the point that from our perspective, it was us who felt the pressure to join NATO, not the other way round. I did give a lengthy reasoning as to why the Baltic states have more than enough reason to distrust Russia (hint: deportations, executions, sovietization). Thus in the 90s, the most urgent goals for the Baltic states was to avoid what happened during WWII and join protective alliances such as EU and NATO as soon as possible. Here's a good summary of Estonia's official position, which I largely agree with. Elderly Cynic@260: Again, I resent any kind of attempt trying to portray Russia as a victim of some kind of unfair siege by NATO, because this narrative conveniently assumes that all Eastern post-soviet states have forgotten decades of state violence and mismanagement in the hands of Communist leadership and are being nasty to Russia simply out of spite. I don't doubt for a moment that the Baltic states would rather be left in peace than to be pawns in this geopolitical game of chess between the West and the East, however that choice is not in our hands.

    310:

    So how could anyone, persuade you of anything you don't already believe, if they can't cast doubt or present evidence without making you suspicious?

    The usual way is to provide evidence in a way that is constructive, i.e. you support your claims by backing them up with things I already know to be true. The more radical the claim, the more difficult that is (extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence). For example, if you claim that the earth is flat, it's your responsibility to provide some really convincing alternative theory that can then explain the tides, seasons, etc. Conspiracy theory sites such as MoA never do this, they instead have built an alternative factual universe which ignores the real world when it doesn't fit their story and twists the truth so that it suits their agenda. It works in the case of Syria, because almost none of the readers have actually been there or know the language or any cultural significances (or actually have any capability of critical thinking, it seems). So MoA can build whatever fiction they want and label anything they can't explain as 'fake'.

    But because you also conveniently ignored DavetheProc's detailed critique I am also now thinking that you're not here to argue in good faith.

    311:

    Thus in the 90s, the most urgent goals for the Baltic states was to avoid what happened during WWII and join protective alliances such as EU and NATO as soon as possible. Here's a good summary of Estonia's official position, which I largely agree with.

    Living on the Northern side of the Gulf of Finland and looking at our respective histories during the last century, yeah, I agree. The Baltic states had independence for a shorter time and didn't manage to keep it after WWII. Finland of course did ally with Germany until late in the war, which probably helped us a lot, and we did drive them out in the end, which also helped us a lot, and we were never occupied in those wars.

    The Baltic states are also much smaller than Finland, and the armies were not theirs for a long time. I've understood also that the amount of Russians who live in the Baltic states is also a matter of some consequence.

    However, sometimes here in Finland saying "Russia" seems to be crying fire. The only option available besides that seems to be NATO, and the memetic squads seem to have worked well. Nobody really bats an eye when people celebrate Halloween, and I know people who celebrate 4th of July with pretty tenous connections to the US (though admittely also people who have very strong ties there who celebrate it). Obviously much of our media is also American. Doing the same things for Russian culture imports would be... very strange.

    312:

    It was a simple question. But if you don't know the answer, forget about it.

    313:

    Especially as there are persistentent voices in the Police & s even more in Social Services, repeatedly saying: "Drop the whole thing: Legalise, License & Tax it!" The redoubling-down comes, most noticeably from religious leaders, who have theor own mind-drugs & blackmail to sell, of course & some rightwingers, who have swallowed the usual lies. But we have vigorous debate ongoing ... certainly in the case of Cannabis, a lot of Plod, at street -level, have got beter things to do with thior time ... unless specifically-directed otherwise by "management", of course.

    314:

    TRANSLATION INTO ENGLISH please? Oh holy fool, tell us truly & not in parables we can't understand?

    "Why we want to know"? Because it matters - it matters if the Dem-party & CNN go down & the only news & political sources left are the Kochs & even more fascist people, yes?

    315:

    The question of which group is hit hardest by the War on Some Drugs is rather easy to answer. It's actually two groups, which admittedly have rather a lot of members in common. Drug dealers and drug addicts.

    Oh, you meant which racial group? Well, about that I don't care - at all. Of course, if a particular racial group is vastly over-represented in the criminal statistics, might it not just be that the reason is that far more of said group are criminals?

    316:

    Please note it was Theresa May who switched UK drug policy from a black list to a white list. It's no longer the war on some drugs. It's a war on all drugs with two (barely tolerated) exceptions, ethanol and nicotine.

    315 Also of course, a war on young people. And obviously, not all drug users are addicts, not all drugs are addictive.
    317:

    Many of us killfile her. (I do.) Some of us do not block her. There is an extension for Firefox which I use for this purpose and I can't remember the name... sucks to be the new guy, right?

    'Tis "Blog Comment Killfile" for Firefox and it derivatives.

    As necessary as killfiles were in the heyday of usenet, when a blog tolerates a luser for whatever reasons it makes it possible to keep reading without having to sort the shit from the shinola, or simply stop reading.

    318:

    I wonder if that's supposed to be a veiled suggestion that if a particular racial group happens to be vastly over-represented in criminal statistics, then that's because of the race, not because of the discrimination (which in turn leads to overt criminalisation) that has placed that group into a worse material situation, limiting their access to good education and options in life and thus perpetuating the cycle. I hope not. :)

    The War On (Some) Drugs is an abomination. Every credible analysis has shown drug addiction to be a medical issue that should not ever be solved by getting the police involved as a first resort. The criminalisation has only resulted in an arms race between police and organized crime in which law abiding citizens suffer (see asset forfeiture, Mexican cartel executions, Philippines), more potent and dangerous drugs used without proper medical precautions (see oxycontin, carfentanil) and baseless demonization of recreational drugs which are healthier than alcohol and tobacco (see cannabis). And finally, addicts and dealers are not the only ones who get hit. If you think the War On Some Drugs is in any way a good thing, then you're delusional.

    319:

    You may be surprised to hear that I agree with you. I said "War on Some Drugs" because quite a lot of drugs with far worse side effects and more dubious usefulness than the currently illegal ones are not only condoned, but recommended, by the medical profession. A partial list would be tranquillisers (highly addictive, ineffective beyond a week or two), stimulants used to shut up kids deemed "hyperactive", and probably worst, the statins.

    Regarding currently illegal drugs; the WOSD is a convenient excuse for many borderline-fascist activities by law enforcement - and, of course, a good way of keeping police and prison guards in "gainful" employment. Also a good excuse for not addressing far more serious problems, as inhabitants of Rotherham would no doubt attest.

    The WOSD also leads to worse outcomes, for several reasons. The illegality leads to aggressive marketing (such as giving out freebies to teenagers, and selling stronger versions e.g. skunk) and high prices, in turn leading to violence between competing dealers (about which I don't care at all except that it often involves innocent bystanders) and criminality led by the need for large amounts of cash to feed the habit.

    This also leads to products of dubious quality and highly variable strength, or even the wrong product altogether. (Many Ecstasy pills have no MDMA in them.) And finally in this section, it leads to the sale of extremely hazardous and completely untested weird chemicals ("legal highs") keeping one step ahead of the law. Although that has been stopped recently, at least in the UK.

    The fact that certain ethnic and cultural groups are vastly over-represented in crime statistics is just that - a fact. The reason is of course debatable, but not taking account of it in the decision about just who should be stopped and searched would be grossly irresponsible.

    My personal opinion is that the whole freaking lot should be legalised. With the proviso that anyone caught selling mind-altering drugs to children should be shot on sight. Obvious children, that is; people in their late teens are a different matter.

    320:

    The fact that certain ethnic and cultural groups are vastly over-represented in crime statistics is just that - a fact. The reason is of course debatable, but not taking account of it in the decision about just who should be stopped and searched would be grossly irresponsible.

    I agree with most of your points except the above. Most people of any race are not criminals, treating them as such will not help. Stop & frisk is not an effective mode of policing. What racial profiling does seem to do, however, is give police justifications for harassing and murdering people they think are threatening while not helping the people actually trust the police, which could go a long way in making communities safer.

    321:

    Wake me up when your world isn't run by total fucking muppets.

    Well, that's going to be a loooong wait, ain't it?

    I is approx same age as OGH, and I think I am a decent sort. This last 12-24 months, I've felt like the simulation hypothesis is true, and somebody is dicking about massively with the settings. There seems to be nothing that is not disturbing.

    322:

    Yep. What you're saying is a practical application of bayesian reasoning.

    Something sadly well beyond most police officers and almost all the population.

    Say 90% of drug crime prisoners have tattoos. On that basis failing to stop and search everyone with a tattoo would seem irresponsible. Surely there's a 90% chance that someone with a tattoo is a criminal, right? But if say half the population has tattoos, and the percentage of current and ex drug crime prisoners is 0.1% then no, there's not a 90% chance that someone with a tattoo is a criminal. The chance of a tattooed person being a criminal is vanishingly small.

    0.01% of the population will be untattooed drug criminals 0.09% of the population will be tattooed drug criminals 49.99% of the population will be untattooed and law abiding 49.91% of the population will be tattooed and law abiding.

    While the difference in the prison population is large, the difference in the general population is practically undetectable.

    Worse, the crime statistics would probably be skewed by differential policing. If the police tell each other that 90% of criminals have tattoos, they'll be checking the tattooed far more. So the tattooed will be more likely to end up in gaol.

    323:

    Since you are clearly too young to remember, I suggest that you read up a little modern history. The Russians remember WWII and what the Poles and Ukranians did, for damn good reasons, and the effects the blockade had then - we (in the UK) SHOULD remember the latter, because we were effectively their only ally, but that has been airbrushed out of history in the UK because it conflicts with the demonisation of the USSR and, later, Russia. Look up about the North Atlantic convey medals for really pukeworthy evidence.

    But a more important date was 1962, when the USSR had very good, factually-based, reasons to believe that the USA was setting up for a 'preemptive' nuclear strike to destroy, firstly, its retaliation capability and, secondly, its viability as a nation. Please note that I am basing that statement on officially authorised USA and UK sources. They now have good reasons to believe that the USA (though its foreign action arm, NATO) is trying to blockade them and even setting up for something similar to 1962 - note that I am relying on sources like Reuters in saying that.

    324:

    There is also the issue that the WOSD punishes different formulations of the same drug differently - see the difference in sentencing between powdered and rock cocaine possession for example.

    This always has the effect of reducing sentences for those connected to power and increasing sentences for those economically distant from power, regardless of country.

    And agreed, that's not even getting started on the legal drug industry, which is just as manipulative and morally bankrupt as the illicit one - look at the vast market created for OxyContin through bribes and the idea that it was a non-addictive opioid, or the misuse of the newest synthetics like fentanyl.

    325:

    "Understandably, the official NATO line is different."

    I haven't looked though it but, of the first three points I looked at, two were factually incorrect and the third was a gross misrepresentation. I have many times checked the two sides' cases against neutral sources, and the Russian story has been more-or-less true over three times as often as the NATO one has been. That's sick.

    "... Russia was a full member of NATO's PfP programme - and could conceivably have joined NATO."

    Russia did, indeed, make a very informal request to join NATO, and was rudely and publicly told that their application would not be considered.

    326:

    If the eastern European countries and Baltic states had genuinely wanted solely defence, then their NATO membership should have excluded those actions that threaten Russia, or ensured that Russia could check that was not going to happen. I am referring particularly to missile bases, but it also applies to bases and arrangements that could be used for an invasion. There are several ways that could have been done - all were rejected, and not by Russia.

    You may resent the portrayal of Russia as a victim of a siege by NATO, but it is demonstrably the truth, and it does NOT imply what you said it does. I am not denying that Russia historically has done the same, so that you have very good reasons to be paranoid. Inter alia, The Yalta agreement was a disaster, and should have been seen as such at the time (heck, not even Lenin trusted Stalin). But that does not change the fact that the USA and NATO are currently waging an economic and political war on Russia.

    327:

    God help us, yes. And there are rumours that China's economy is about to go into recession, which will have 'interesting' knock-on effects. The government does appear to have started to realise that we are facing a meltdown, but I can see no sign that they realise how bad it is, still less that they intend to do anything about it.

    328:

    I suspect the reason Russia couldn't have joined NATO is economic.

    Rewind to 1991 and the Russian economy was a smoking crater. About the only bits of it that still worked were carbon resource extraction (oil/gas) and the military/industrial sector, and even they were suffering. As armaments were the only area where the USSR economy was actually effective and competitive, preserving those factories would have been a priority for any Russian leader not wanting to drop all the way back to developing world status. It was about 20% of the entire manufacturing economy even before the crash in 1988-92; a really big deal.

    Now consider what NATO is, aside from "a defensive military alliance". NATO is a framework for providing logistics support to member nations' militaries when engaged in conflict. It defines specifications for standardized items; sure not everyone uses the M-16 family of assault rifle, but every member who does use the M-16 knows that ammunition and components of their M-16s are interoperable with everyone else's. Want to be macho and independent and deploy your own battle rifle? NATO won't stop you, but it'll try and ensure that you can share rifle ammo with everyone else, or that your trucks run on the same grade of fuel, or your fighters' connectors for AIM-9 Sidewinders can take anyone else's Sidewinders, and your radio frequencies are compatible, and so on.

    So, NATO: not just an alliance, but a technical standards body.

    The problem was that Russia ran on Warsaw Pact standards instead. MiG-29s don't come with mounting points for AIM-9s and AK-74s can't fire NATO 5.56x455mm: it fires 5.45x39 instead, which locked out Warsaw Pact and overseas customers from buying American ammunition.

    The USSR established a de-facto rival technical standards body. So if Russia had joined NATO, they'd have had two unpalatable and extremely expensive options: (a) convince NATO to support two rival sets of standards for everything from rivets and rifle cartridges up, or (b) ditch USSR standards and switch everything to NATO.

    It would have cost their defense industries their legacy overseas markets, maintaining and supplying Soviet-compatible kit. It would have opened up the Russian defense ministry to foreign suppliers, too — why buy and develop the MiG-29 and Su-27 when Lockheed would love to sell you F-16s, whether American surplus or even license-built?

    The internal Kremlin lobbying to keep Russia out of NATO for commercial/economic reasons would have been ... intense.

    (This is just a hypothesis. Discuss?)

    329:

    Wait what? Nato missile bases in the Baltics?
    I know there was a plan to put some in Poland/Czech at one stage, but I've never heard of anything baltic state related.

    On the other hand the Soviets definitely did put missiles at Plokstine in Lithuania, I've been there.

    330:

    Speaking as someone who initially studied Pharmacy under a professor who got his supplies of cannabis leaf from the official Home Office Farm — he had a research license — back circa 1984-86 his very circumspect professional opinion (he didn't want to lose his research funding and supplies) was that the WoD was a fake-out, cannabis was pretty harmless (except to your career and liberty if you were caught using it, obviously), and while heroin and cocaine had notable unpleasant side-effects when abused excessively, they were no worse than many entirely legal substances (tobacco, alcohol, prescription medicines).

    Then I got out into practice and encountered other pharmacology pros who'd made a career out of preaching the eeeeevils of drugs to cops, nurses, MDs, and others: the propaganda was alarmist, inaccurate, and pervasive. Because of course the premise underlying the WoD was bogus, so it was necessary to keep up a litany of lies to keep the trusted shapers of public opinion (i.e. your family doctor telling you smoking was bad for you) misinformed.

    I have no reason to believe things have improved. The anti-drugs campaigners ... yes, there are dangerous things out there: carfentanyl is deadly, agreed. But the reason it's dangerous is because it's illegal and unregulated so you never know how effective the dose you're taking will be, and whether that piece of cannabis resin you've got is 80% shoe polish or 100% super-skunk. (The latter being, to regular weed, much like cask-strength whisky compared to small beer.)

    But you can make a good living as a moral crusader, if you can stomach telling lies for a living — the kind that send people to prison unfairly, not the entertaining variety.

    331:

    A primary cause of the Cuban Missile crisis back in the early 60s was the presence of US nuclear-armed intermediate-range Thor and Jupiter missiles in Italy and Turkey. The US refused requests from the USSR to remove these missiles and then went crazy when the Soviets started plans to emplace similar missiles in Cuba. After the crisis was over they agreed to the removal of the Thor and Jupiter missiles (which were rapidly becoming obsolescent anyway) in a secret deal.

    332:

    I didn't say that - look at what I said again. The current threat to Russia from the Baltic states is mainly as a base for invasion or blockade, especially of Kaliningrad, and the reason that Russia is so twitchy is the way that NATO has been surrounding it with missile bases, and moving them closer and closer. Mounting a massive exercise in the Baltics using landing craft was clearly intended to raise the tension.

    http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/06/18/nato-holds-training-exercises-in-baltic-as-russia-tensions-heighten/

    The problem is made much, much worse by the fact that it isn't the only area where the USA and NATO are threating Russia. There are the missile bases etc. in central Asia and the gross abuses of the Montreux treaty (Black Sea and Bosporus).

    333:

    It was a simple question. But if you don't know the answer, forget about it.

    There's a joke here you're missing (and I very much do know where it's from).

    If you state the reason why you want to know where it's from, you'll get a cookie. Challenge your assumptions, eh?

    Oh holy fool, tell us truly & not in parables we can't understand?

    Short version:

    The American Right-wing (pre-Alt incarnation) had a little attack dog called James O'Keefe who has a setup called (cutely, since it proves the old adage about psychological projection) "Project Veritas". He pioneered an attack method of 'undercover journalism' (let's avoid libel and suggest his skills in the editing suite are top-notch - e.g Wichita teachers union president sues outlets over undercover video The Wichita Eagle, 26th June, 2017). He was (much more innocent times) wildly successful, at least at first: ACORN 2009 undercover videos controversy.

    He's back, but with a slick new cover (which means someone is spending $$$), and was a minor player in the Trump election cycle: CNN shrugs off Veritas video as Trump lashes out at network USA Today, 27th June, 2017.

    The story is that he got a CNN 'producer' (actually in their Health division and no-where near where CNN makes the sausage on the News front) on camera stating that Corporate policy had strongly pushed everything Russian (which is largely true, because eyeballs = $$$). Project Veritas has a very slick video stating that CNN is admitting to being "fake news" and all ties Russian are made up (no link, obviously, and well - slick for its target audience, there's a difference). Classic push to logical over-extension, of the MoA type[1].

    Far more interesting is the fact that CNN has just fired three reporters: 'Fake news': Trump tweets glee as three CNN journalists resign over Russia story Guardian, 27th June, 2017 which suggests major pressure is also coming from the top-downwards. (Narrator: Readers, it was)

    Spoilers: It's a co-ordinated campaign and there's at least another prong to come (why it didn't break at the same time? hmm). In fact, it's sprouting up all along the watch towers. But... It's got a success rate probability attached to it that would shock you when you could be 99% certain for it to fail if you took a slice from pre-Iraq II CNN status[2]. It might be Meteor Time for old media (unlikely, but, that adage about a million-to-one shots.

    TL;DR

    Sigh, Gremlins again.

    [1] You might understand my suspicion of 'hey, host, are you really sure about all those Russian ties?' and timing now. nose wiggle

    [2] M.I.C Propaganda Channel of Choice.

    334:

    For anyone who is interested, When Angels Wept is an excellent counterfactual of the Cuban Missile Crisis going hot.

    What makes it particularly notable is that the author is an academic who has studied the USSR, the USA, their weapon systems, capabilities and intentions for several decades. So this isn't an author who does some research and makes the rest of the stuff up-- this is the best guess of an extremely well-informed person as to what could have happened.

    Absolutely frightening. Paraphrasing: "Tens of millions of dead immediately. Hundreds of millions in excess mortality in 1962-67. Ozone layer: gone. Cancers, especially thyroid cancer, through the roof."

    335:

    (Note: Project Veritas & Breitbart have long term ties.)

    336:

    That's the GSV Our Kind Watched The Brilliant Nights and Sang Songs While the Whales Were Alive and Swum In the Seas When The Coral Lived And Have Dragonflies To Summon And Dragons In The Sky from Iain M. Banks's 2016 book Eureka Moment, usually shortened to the GSV Our Kind Watched

    Sadly, it's not available in our reality. However, AL has her ways. I just wish she'd share.

    337:

    Oh, and style points because the CNN attack answer's Host's question -

    According to people intimately familiar with CNN’s finances, the network and its related media businesses will approach $1 billion in gross profit in 2016, a milestone unseen in its 36-year history. The internal estimate reflects a double-digit increase over 2015 and includes CNN’s international network, its popular website and the smaller HLN network, but it is driven primarily by its domestic channel, according to people at CNN.

    One billion dollars profit? Yes, the campaign has been a gusher for CNN WaPo, 27th Oct, 2016

    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/twx

    Set the scale to 'all' and notice the price on 09/01/2000 compared to today.

    And they only had to ruin America to get back to those heady heights...

    whistles 'money can't buy you love'

    338:

    Not insurmountable...

    For instance, the UK lost NATO approval for the SA80 a couple of years after it was introduced to service; they didn't get it back for several years and the introduction of the A2 rework programme. There are plenty of NATO members flying aircraft designed and built by Mikoyan-Gurevich, Sukhoi, Kamov, and Mil.

    Former Warsaw Pact members have carried on using Soviet-designed equipment; and the Russian manufacturers are perfectly happy to make you an AK-variant weapon in 5.56 (see: AK-101). Add to that, the example of the French - running a completely unique logistic chain for decades :)

    Where the big doctrinal difference happens, is in the design of the equipment.

  • The Soviet Union, and now Russia, design weaponry that is optimised for use in wartime by conscripts. Rugged, cheap, simple, and based on the assumption that it's unlikely to survive for long once the shooting starts. Buy a cheaper Russian jet fighter, and you get something with a service life of a couple of thousand hours, and have to buy multiple engine sets that last a few hundred hours (on the upside, your first act during transition to war is to swap out the engines for a box-fresh set; if the aircraft even survives more than a few score flying hours, the war should be over).
  • The West designs weaponry that is optimised for use in peacetime by professionals. More complex, less replaceable, and designed in fewer numbers for a longer and more peaceful service life. Buy a Western jet fighter, and you'll get something that lasts twice as long, and only needs one engine set each plus a few spares (see: Typhoon, EJ200 reliability)
  • As a design philosophy, the "Russian Way" makes sense - but only if you're willing to splurge a huge percentage of your national wealth on weaponry and the people to crew it or carry it. If you're only willing to put 2% of GDP into defence, however, it's just not workable.

    As for compatibility, it's not just the STANAG - it's "who pays"? the Swedish Gripen lost out in some early competitions because the US manufacturers were unwilling to guarantee AMRAAM integration (why add to the competition?). Integrating any weapon system is time-consuming and expensive; they're still working on ASRAAM and Meteor for the RAF/RN on F-35, and Storm Shadow for the Typhoon, AIUI. I suspect that the Israelis will have to qualify their missiles for F-35I, too.

    The biggest problem, in some ways, was that while Russian aviation design was ahead of the game in aerodynamics, hydrodynamics, operational analysis, etc; their electronics and digital systems design was pants, their quality control was poor, and manufacture was lacking in the investment it needed to keep up. ITAR doesn't help, but it wouldn't have been insurmountable.

    339:

    Oh yes, I am very familiar with that.

    Actually I misread his original post, and I can understand EC's point - the rapid expansion of NATO in 2004, especially with Bulgaria/Romania joining prior to joining the EU - its a visible threat to Russia as all of their buffer states convert to a rival pact.

    Also looking into it, the proposed Polish ABM base was near the Baltic coast not far from Germany so that counts too.

    340:

    The current threat to Russia from the Baltic states is mainly as a base for invasion or blockade

    We've walked through this before, but it bears repeating:

    Based on recent history, which do you feel is more likely? Russia invading a neighbour (e.g. as they have done in Georgia or Ukraine) or a neighbour invading Russia?

    341:

    That's fucking racist, dude.

    342:

    Since you are clearly too young to remember, I suggest that you read up a little modern history. The Russians remember WWII and what the Poles and Ukranians did, for damn good reasons

    Oh, the irony.

    Perhaps you should consider the Soviets allowing the Wehrmacht to train in Russia, in contravention of the various WW1 disarmament treaties. Or the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. Perhaps the Soviet invasion of eastern Poland in 1939, the Soviet invasion of Finland in 1939 and the Winter War, the Soviet invasion of the Baltic States in 1940. Perhaps the Katyn Massacre of 1940 might, just, have affected Polish thinking regarding Moscow.

    So yes, Eastern Europe remembers WWII as well - those poor, poor Soviets, regretfully forced to carry out all of those invasions, purely out of a need for self-defence, and obviously with "damn good reason" as you put it. Those invaded countries should hang their heads in shame for their nakedly aggressive and obviously indefensible act of "being in the Near Abroad". Of course they should bow down toward Moscow, anything else is proof of foreign manipulation...

    Remind me - that Great Patriotic War of 1941-1945, which you suggest that the poster study Polish and Ukrainian behaviour as justification for Soviet and Russian suspicion; was it before all of the above, or.... afterwards?

    343:

    Also looking into it, the proposed Polish ABM base was near the Baltic coast not far from Germany

    AFAIK, it still is, at 54.480 N, 17.102 E. The earlier version was to use a two-stage version of the Ground Based Interceptor now kind-of-deployed in Alaska, but that morphed into Aegis Ashore using SM-3 Block IIA missiles. IOC is anticipated for next year.

    https://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/sm-3-bmd-04986/

    344:

    The other critical point about 1962 was that a USSR first strike would have led to MAD, but a USA first strike would have destroyed the USSR while leaving the USA 70+% intact - and there were powerful calls in the USA to do just that. Both sides knew the facts, and both knew the other knew (etc.) - that's in official USA and UK sources.

    Yes. But the other critical point about today is that is by no means the only way in which USA and NATO are actively threatening Russia, and actually waging (so far largely non-military) war against it. Russia isn't a nice country, but it IS facing a real, existential threat from the USA and NATO, and has essentially nowhere left to retreat to. That is a major reason that the Russian people support Putin.

    345:

    Incidentally, it's quite probably true that smoking cannabis (specifically smoking it, not consuming it in space cakes and probably not vaporised by some non-fire-related method) is very dangerous in the long term. Not because of the psychoactive substances in it, but because joints are usually unfiltered. (Probably because weed is expensive and users don't want to waste it clogging up cigarette filters, perhaps.)

    This particular aspect of the problem wouldn't be affected much if the cigarettes were filled with dried grass (real grass!) or one of the herbal smoking mixtures occasionally used as part of an attempt to stop smoking. It's simply a fact that breathing smoke is a bad idea.

    Also, from my limited knowledge it seems quite common for cannabis to be used as resin, added to tobacco cigarettes. This is a great way to get addicted - to nicotine.

    BTW, is there a comment limit on this blog? If there is and I've exceeded it, I apologise.

    346:

    Re: '... major reason that the Russian people support Putin.'

    Suggest you watch John Oliver (ex-pat Brit who's doing really really well on US TV)on youtube. One of his episodes showed how media coverage of Putin by Russian media is comparable to NKorea's coverage of Kim Jong-un, i.e., 'Our beloved leader is a genius, can do any/everything, is infallible, etc.' Basically, what DT dreams he could get from US media.

    347:

    So? The Russians have been exposed to such one-sided tripe for centuries, and have a well-justified reputation for being one of the most cynical electorates on earth. Also, a hell of a lot of them look at western media, which is completely unlike North Korea (or the USA, for that matter). And your quote was misleading, because there is a big difference between A major reason and THE major reason - I said the former.

    349:

    Sort of, but that's too simplistic. Prejudice is not a perquisite of the powerful, and much of the legislation is down to prejudice, not the preservation of power - indeed, some of the liberalisation of the past was done by the powerful against the prejudices of the masses. Also, some of it was intended to protect the vulnerable, though I agree that that is rarely how it was or is delivered.

    350:

    But you can make a good living as a moral crusader, if you can stomach telling lies for a living Cough .. Thats' the DEFINITION for: "Priest" ( Isn't it? )

    351:

    Yeah Decrim of homsexuality & end of Death penalty come to mind in the UK

    352:

    Indeed, that's how I got hooked on bloody ciggies for nigh on 30 years. Left the wacky backy behind a year or so after uni, took me til 3 years ago to quit tobacco.

    353:

    Ian Campbell @315: yellow card for overt racism.

    Do it again and you'll be banned.

    (Longer explanation: suppose group X is over-represented in prison. There are a couple of possible explanations for this: maybe group X is predisposed towards criminal behaviour, or attributes of group X are systematically criminalized as a tool of racist oppression. But consider this: around the world, one group is always massively over-represented in prison: young adult males. Should we therefore conclude that young adult males are criminally inclined? The usual answer to this poser is "no"; a whole lot of young adult males never commit any offenses. Bayesian reasoning is a lousy guide in this context. The second option, however, is much more credible, especially as there's documentary evidence for it: a quick perusal of the deplorable history of Harry Anslinger demonstrated the roots of the war on drugs as a tool of racist oppression. Upshot: it's not that "black" people are criminals, it's that their activities are redefined as crimes in order to provide a pretext for imprisonment.)

    354:

    The Poles? Well Poland was invaded by the Soviet Union in concert with Nazi Germany, and then had thousands of their officer corps murdered while resident in Soviet POW camps. When the Soviet Union was invaded, the Polish POWS either shipped out to fight the Nazis in the Mediterranean theatre and later in NW Europe, or fought under Soviet leadership on the Eastern Front. Not forgetting the Home Army that undertook the Warsaw Rising in 1944.

    355:

    Sure breathing smoke is bad for you. The fact remains, a heavy toker smokes a lot less of their unfiltered grass than a tobacco user uses cigarettes. This is a specious argument against legalisation; as you noted, eating the stuff is even less harmful, and this ignores the use of hash oil in e-cigs/vapourizers (use of which as a tobacco product substitute has been demonstrated to be vastly less damaging than smoking cigarettes, filtered or otherwise).

    356:

    But the other critical point about today is that is by no means the only way in which USA and NATO are actively threatening Russia, and actually waging (so far largely non-military) war against it.

    I'm not sure what you consider to be "actually waging war", and am curious as to what you would consider to be a good example of "NATO's war on Russia". Is the above statement hyperbole, or do you genuinely believe every word?

    I mean, I'll grant you "sending your military into another country to take part in combat, without the permission of either the UN or the country so visited" (say: Russia in the Crimea, Donbass), I'm just curious as to what else you consider to be a valid example.

    357:

    M.I.C Propaganda Channel of Choice.

    I'd forgotten that CNN was the (probably unwitting) vector for getting disinformation to Saddam during the Gulf War. Lots of footage of marines practicing amphibious landings, which kept Iraqi forces tied up on Kuwaiti beaches for landings which never happened.

    358:

    Agreed, but your explanation is wrong. Bayesian reasoning IS a good guide, if your objective is simply to maximise the total catch of criminals. The problem is (a) that it will actively discriminate against the group, (b) people will tend to take it further and act on their prejudices and (c) as a result, it acts to prevent the root problems from being addressed. Because of that, NOT because it is a lousy guide to maximising the catch, it is counter-productive in the wider context. I agree that the drug laws were and are based on prejudice, but the same applies to (say) murder or rape.

    359:

    Correction accepted. Mentioning the Poles was a brain fart.

    360:

    I suspect the reason Russia couldn't have joined NATO is economic. [...]

    Speaking as an employee of the U.S. military-industrial complex and understudy of people who were "in the room" for that sort of thing...

    My understanding is the discussion never got that far along. At the time of the Soviet collapse, there was too much bad blood on both sides for the notion to be taken seriously. Scattered actors had an interest--e.g. James Baker published material openly advocating Russia joining NATO, and Putin commented publicly on the possibility early in his tenure--but it never truly gained any traction.

    In the 1990s, the Western establishment was content to let the "shock therapy" crowd and the emerging oligarchs have their way with Russia while the U.S. assimilated Eastern Europe into the West.

    361:

    The current threat to Russia from the Baltic states is mainly as a base for invasion or blockade, especially of Kaliningrad, and the reason that Russia is so twitchy is the way that NATO has been surrounding it with missile bases, and moving them closer and closer. Mounting a massive exercise in the Baltics using landing craft was clearly intended to raise the tension.

    First off, as a general rule, I don't recommend citing Breitbart as a source. It's a far right-wing, "alt-right" propaganda outlet whose former chief, Steve Bannon, is now Trump's top strategist.

    Second, you're mistaking reactive, tit-for-tat tactical moves for deliberate steps in a pre-planned grand strategy. There is no such strategy. The U.S. has not had a coherent strategy toward Russia since the Cold War ended.

    The key to understanding U.S. behavior toward Russia is realizing that the U.S. does not perceive or recognize any Russian entitlement to an independent sphere of influence. Hence, the U.S. view is that Western activities in Ukraine were simply a continuation of the post-Cold War assimilation of Eastern Europe. Simply put, until the last 6 months and the whole brouhaha with Trump, the U.S. policy apparatus didn't take Russia seriously.

    Also, speaking from experience, the U.S. "Deep State" isn't that deep. In fact, it's really quite shallow. Hanlon's razor and all that.

    But the other critical point about today is that is by no means the only way in which USA and NATO are actively threatening Russia, and actually waging (so far largely non-military) war against it. Russia isn't a nice country, but it IS facing a real, existential threat from the USA and NATO, and has essentially nowhere left to retreat to.

    Arguably, but Russia did its part to put itself in that position. Russia is not a helpless victim.

    I also quibble with the "existential threat" part. MAD is still in effect. Russia is under no more of such a threat than it has been for the past several decades. Moreover, Trump's waffling on Article 5 has publicly exposed how weak an alliance NATO has become.

    That is a major reason that the Russian people support Putin.

    I think you're seriously overestimating the cognizance of the Russian people on matters of geopolitics. More likely, they're as poorly informed and ignorant as the majority of Americans are.

    You seem deeply sympathetic to Russia. If so, why?

    362:

    I quoted Breitbart precisely BECAUSE it is so extreme - even it was describing that exercise as practising an offensive action.

    "Simply put, until the last 6 months and the whole brouhaha with Trump, the U.S. policy apparatus didn't take Russia seriously."

    If it didn't then, it doesn't now. Its anti-Russian actions go back many years - remember that USA sanctions are economic warfare, both in law and practice. I agree that the USA doesn't want any other country to challenge its hegemony, not even locally, but that's not the key point. The critical aspect is Russia's coastal geography, where it is singularly vulnerable to being blockaded in the Baltic and Black Sea. And the USA/NATO has been threatening just that.

    "MAD is still in effect. Russia is under no more of such a threat than it has been for the past several decades."

    That is true, but largely irrelevant. Russia and Putin (for all their faults) are sane, and do NOT want to have to start a nuclear war because the alternative is destruction, at least as an independent country and possibly as a country. The point is that Russia willingly retreated after the demise of the USSR, until it realised that the USA/NATO was still pursuing an anti-Russian agenda, and it had to call a halt or be blockaded or worse.

    "You seem deeply sympathetic to Russia. If so, why?"

    Because I don't want to see WWIII start! The point is that Russia has nowhere to retreat to, either geographically or politically, and the USA/NATO are STILL pushing. It has been almost begging for diplomatic solutions, and the USA/NATO has been saying "We are the 800 pound gorilla and don't negotiate - give way, totally, or else". It has its back to the wall, which last happened in 1941. If the USA/NATO push any further, Russia WILL fight, because it has no reasonable alternative.

    363:

    Interestingly, the supporting statement against the "NATO promised not to expand eastwards" is provided by... Gorbachev.

    It does appear to be a matter of timing; at the point where Yeltsin allowed Putin and his Nationalist mates/fellow kleptocrats to get their noses into the tent, Russia was a full member of NATO's PfP programme - and could conceivably have joined NATO.

    The "promise" Gorbachev was referring to was a handshake agreement with James Baker and the Bush I administration. Gorbachev and the Russians should've known such an agreement was only meaningful as long as that administration was in office.

    Russia joining NATO never got a serious hearing. Too many Cold War holdovers in the military-intelligence-diplomatic establishments of both the U.S. and Russia. They were conditioned for decades to hate and distrust each other. They never stopped.

    IMO, that's the tragic irony of the current situation. U.S.-Russia relations have deteriorated during the same period when said Cold War holdovers are starting to age out/die off. The opportunity's gone for at least another generation.

    364:

    I quoted Breitbart precisely BECAUSE it is so extreme - even it was describing that exercise as practising an offensive action.

    I think you misunderstand U.S. politics a bit here. Breitbart and the alt-right are explicitly pro-Russian and pro-Putin. They see him as a masculine, reactionary exemplar and bulwark against the "feminizing" forces of Transatlantic globalism.

    365:

    Damn. I short one day, because I had to get two CAT scans - one, I had to take time off for, and the other involved my bed, and purring....

    A lot of stuff to respond to.

  • I think there's a far better name for She of the Many Names: since she's far more neutral/good than neutral/evil... Coyotl. That's Trickster, to you.

  • Glenn... ok, folks, I've seen this far too many times before, on this side of the pond. I don't know if he's being paid to do social media, or if he's just a right-wing ideologue, but it's clear he's one. He will accept NO evidence that doesn't support his view ("my mind's made up, don't bother me with facts").

  • And for you, Glenn, give us OTHER SOURCES, than MOA and RT. Give us well-known other sources that are not Faux News to support your views. Until you do, I stand by #2.

  • Russia is a very difficult country to deal with - everything is shades of grey. (Not to say the US isn't, but that's not what we're arguing here.)

  • a) Except where the USSR was either preparing for war, recovering from one, or fighting the Cold War, how many years of its entire existence was at peace? 10? And it was industrializing an entire nation that, at the time of the Revolution was 90% agricultural.

    b) The USSR was invaded by the US and Britain, right after WWI, with armies. Meanwhile the West, and esp. in the US, the ultra-wealthy were hysterically against them. (Against unions here, too, and have effectively broken them.) Economic warfare was going, at least until FDR. Then, after WWII, it came on again, full bore... and a lot of industrial hardware was kept from sales there. To my mind, one of the main things that brought the collapse of the USSR was Raygun: the US had a platinum, or maybe unobtainium, credit card, and the USSR only had an ordinary one, and was trying to counter Raygun's huge military buildup and threats.

    c) The collapse of the USSR was an utter and complete disaster for the 99% there. The West was all enthused... and then appratchiks and their friends got to buy it up for pennies, and the West didn't. They've always been very annoyed at that. The 99%? Who cares about them, they're nobodies.

    d) NATO's expansion right up to the Russian border, with no buffer states at all...oh, yeah, there's no threat to Russia, no, not at all. (And if you believe that, I've got a bridge to sell you.)

    e) The West has never wanted to allow Russia a warm-water port. Can't imagine why Russia should be unhappy about that.

    f) While you're discussing the Baltic states, and eastern Europe, I think I'll consider Mexico, Central and South America, and what the US did, and still does, there. How much of the Venezuelan opposition is funded by US interests, or the US covertly? And other counties... don't forget, Eisenhower, when he was President, sent the US Marines into Nicaragua to protect United Fruit's interests. And then there was Raygun, giving money to literal death squads in Nicaragua. And google "School of the Americas".

    So, as an USan, we've got NO FUCKING RIGHT WHATEVER to say about Eastern Europe.

    366:

    The point is that Russia has nowhere to retreat to, either geographically or politically, and the USA/NATO are STILL pushing. It has been almost begging for diplomatic solutions, and the USA/NATO has been saying "We are the 800 pound gorilla and don't negotiate - give way, totally, or else". It has its back to the wall, which last happened in 1941. If the USA/NATO push any further, Russia WILL fight, because it has no reasonable alternative.

    I disagree.

    I think you're mistaking reasserted expansionism for desperate defensive action. I also think you're deeply underestimating Putin and his regime. I think they've rightly calculated that the U.S. and NATO are relatively weak, specifically that the U.S. has no coherent strategy toward the FSU, is distracted elsewhere, and that, in the West more generally, the political will to actually enforce Article 5 is tepid to nonexistent. Therefore, the time is is right for Russia to reassert as much power over its near abroad as it can. Hence, the action against Georgia. Hence, the annexation of Crimea. Hence, the shenanigans in eastern Ukraine.

    Russia will only be truly interested in negotiating with the U.S. once it's convinced that it has pushed the envelope as far as it can without triggering the scenario you fear.

    I have zero confidence the Russian regime is acting good faith. I don't think the U.S. is either, but moreso out of inertia and cluelessness than guile or strategy.

    367:

    The Wo(S)D: it started as against People Of Other Colors (and let's not forget Hearst's paper mills, and Anslinger's desire for a high-profile gov't job in the '30s.)

    By the sixties, the Rethuglicans decided it was great PR, and could use it against lots of folks who might be SO immoral and unethical... as to vote Democrat.

    And about the law, and the cops - for those on the other side of the Pond, there are even acronyms here: DWB (driving while Black), and one popping up is EWB (existing while Black). I know both anecdotally and from reports that Blacks and Hispanics will be pulled over for driving a nice car, or for the most minor infractions, where a white drive will not be. There've even been studies proving this.

    Weed - sure, it's got tars. But if you tried to smoke a pack a day, you'd a) weigh about 150kg, and b) be asleep about as much as a cat (18 hrs/day).

    368:

    "Not insurmountable"

    ROTFLKMFIA!!!!!!!!

    You are talking to some folks from one of the three nations in the entire freakin' world still using "English units", and who need two bloody tool kits, English and metric, and we won't even metion that Mars lander....

    369:

    Charlie, thanks for that post. I found it extremely interesting... and amazingly reasonable.

    370:

    Oh, Ghu, yes. And the Orange Idiot is far too stupid and ignorant to vaguely understand what he's putting his foot into.

    The real question is whether this will piss off his patron enough for him to finally get rid of this dangerous and poorly-made tool.

    371:

    Since we're past 300, some neuroscience, of the instrument-two-male-rhesus-macaques variety. Related to causality. :-) (I'd like to say that hopefully we can soon do these experiments properly, but vastly better instrumentation will have other implications (including control)). Study illustrates how the cortex assigns credit for causality abstract (i don't have access) - Prefrontal neurons encode a solution to the credit assignment problem (20 June 2017) These results demonstrate that the activity of dPFC neurons conforms to the basic requirements of a system that performs credit assignment, and that spiking activity can serve as a stable mechanism that links causes and effects.

    To AL: Proving a pedigree. "You don't even know Russian" as some HN kid shouted to me. Bezopasnost This never gets less weird, as I've said previously. Smile, though.

    Also, avoiding human evolution links mostly, but was unable to resist this - 130 kyr ago neanderthal dentistry?: Prehistoric dentistry? P4 rotation, partial M3 impaction, toothpick grooves and other signs of manipulation in Krapina Dental Person 20. (2017, not sure when) via

    Eyes I dare not meet in dreams - poetry prodding, finally read it closely, TX.

    372:

    If you state the reason why you want to know where it's from, you'll get a cookie.

    I wanted to know because it was something I didn't already know. What other reason is there for wanting to know anything?

    373:

    Wow, you are scraping the bottom of the barrel to try to get a response from me. So anyway, as noted, feeding trolls is amusing, especially when the person responding wasn't the person targeted.

    As for Sacramento, I don't know whether that single-payer thing was quashed because it was a crappy bill or because The Industry got to them. Or both. Given how bad our carbon cap and trade market's doing, I'm not all that worried about them not getting single-payer health care right on the first bill. I've got to live with the consequences, after all, and it could have easily turned into a costly fiasco. While yes, I'd love to see single-payer come to this state, I don't want it to be more expensive than average US health care, and that part wasn't at all clear in the bill.

    374:

    In the 1990s, the Western establishment was content to let the "shock therapy" crowd and the emerging oligarchs have their way with Russia while the U.S. assimilated Eastern Europe into the West.

    That's an interesting take on the whole way it played out. Since it's kinda on-topic for Host's question, a digression into history:

    As you point out in your letter, the shipment of bank notes by United States banks to other banks, in Russia or anywhere else, is permitted by U.S. law and there is nothing inherently illegal about such activities. The New York article was certainly unfair in suggesting otherwise. Furthermore, we have never encountered a money laundering scheme which seeks to convert assets already in financial institutions into bank notes[1].

    Congressional Record Volume 142, Number 19 (Tuesday, February 13, 1996) US Gov.

    Remember in the 1990s when the CIA was flying plane loads of cash to give to the Russian mob and oligarchs? Blacklisted News, 12th March, 2017 - notable for actual scans of the New Yorker piece which was called "The Money Plane".

    (Note that this was just prior to the Asian crisis of 97/8 which bled into a further recession in Russia).

    Let me see, this seems familiar[2]:

    Also, speaking from experience, the U.S. "Deep State" isn't that deep. In fact, it's really quite shallow. Hanlon's razor and all that.

    Of note is that the person involved,

    My area of responsibility for advising was macroeconomics, not privatization. I had no responsibility for the corrupt privatization, though I was often blamed wrongly for it. I actually opposed it strenuously, but was no longer even an advisor to the Russian Government when it occurred (especially 1994-1996).

    In December 1991 I had continuing discussions with the IMF about Western assistance for Russia. The IMF’s point man, Mr. John Odling Smee, who lasted for a decade as the head of the IMF’s efforts, was busy telling the G-7 that Russia needed no aid, that the “balance of payments gap” as calculated by the IMF was essentially zero. I believe that the IMF was simply parroting the political decisions already decided by the United States, rather than making an independent assessment. This is just a conjecture, but I make it because of the very low quality of IMF analysis and deliberations.

    . Prof. Andrei Shleifer, a Russian-American colleague on the Harvard faculty, became the key Western adviser on privatization, and he insisted on his own turf.

    During my final trip to Moscow in early 1995, the infamous “loans-for-shares” deal was just getting underway. This deal involved a massive and corrupt transfer of natural resource enterprises to the Government’s cronies, disguised as a collateralized loan to the Russian Government by Russian banks. The arrangements were blatantly corrupt from the start. I spent my final visit in Moscow visiting Western officials to warn them about what was happening. I felt that my antennae were pretty sound at that point, and that my perspective would be helpful to head off a disaster. I was stunned by the obtuseness of the response, from the IMF, an OECD visiting mission, and later from very senior U.S. officials, including Larry Summers.

    As it turned out, Prof. Shleifer was investing in Russian securities while leading the project, in violation[47] of HIID and US Government conflict-of-interest rules. He kept this secret from HIID management, including from me, as well as from USAID. During 1996, the U.S. Government Accountability Office audited the project, given its large scale, and did not turn up any information that led me or any other senior management at Harvard to suspect any inappropriate behavior by Prof. Shleifer. When the behavior ultimately came to USAID’s knowledge, and I was notified about it, I moved immediately to remove Shleifer from the project. After a lengthy investigation, Harvard and Shleifer ended up paying hefty fines as the result of Shleifer’s misbehavior.

    What I did in Russia Jeff Sachs (personal blog), Mar 2012

    In 1994, the story goes, Shleifer invested $464,000 in Russian oil companies, securities and equities—an overlap with the area of the Russian economy that he was helping to develop, while Hay put $20,000 into a mutual fund that invested in Russian equities. Hay, it is claimed, also gave a $66,000 check to Shleifer for Russian investments. The woman Hay is now married to, his girlfriend at the time, was the primary owner of the Pallada Mutual Fund Management Company—the first fund registered to sell to the Russian public. Through HIID, Hay oversaw such registrations. None of these transactions, the US says, were disclosed to USAID

    Harvard’s Dirty Hands The Harvard Crimson, Oct 2002

    In 1994 Shleifer founded with fellow academics—and behavioral finance specialists—Josef Lakonishok and Robert Vishny a Chicago-based money management firm known as LSV Asset Management. As of February 2006, it managed about $50 billion in quantitative value equity portfolios, though, according to the firm's website, Shleifer has sold his ownership stake.

    In 1997, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) canceled most of its funding for the Harvard project after investigations showed that top HIID officials Andre Schleifer and Johnathan Hay had used their positions and insider information to profit from investments in the Russian securities markets. Among other things, the Institute for a Law Based Economy (ILBE) was used to assist Schleifer's wife, Nancy Zimmerman, who operated a hedge fund which speculated in Russian bonds.[14] Wikipedia

    However, later in 2004 the government announced that Zimmerman's firm had agreed to pay $1.5 million in a settlement. A year later Harvard agreed to pay the largest amount in its history to settle a lawsuit -- $26.5 million. Shleifer agreed to pay $2 million, Hay between $1 million and $2 million. All four of the original individual defendants testified extensively under oath, defending their roles in the Russian aid program. None acknowledged liability. In his settlement Hay said he disputes "certain of the contentions" against him. In a statement at the time, Shleifer said: "An individual can fight the unlimited resources of the government for only so long. After eight long years, I have decided to end this now -- without any admission of liability on my part. I strongly believe I would have prevailed in the end, but my lawyers told me my legal fees would exceed the amount that I will be paying the government."

    "The scandal caused an extreme decline in the Russian SEC's influence as a regulator," says economist Alexander Abramov, head of development at the Moscow-based Russian Trading System, the country's principal stock exchange, and the author of a new book on Russia's securities markets. "It made the financial crisis of 1998 more likely. And I think it destroyed the trust and relationships between Russian authorities and American advisers."

    How Harvard lost Russia Institutional Investor, Feb 2006

    Prof. Andrei Shleifer remains at Harvard. LSV Asset Management is now worth ~$101 billion. In 2010 only 3.5% of its portfolio was held in the Russian Federation, notably in the industrial and extraction industries[3].

    Nobody went to jail.

    [1] Possibly because no-one had witnessed the rapid dissolution of a Communist State before?

    [2] How the US sent $12bn in cash to Iraq. And watched it vanish Guardian, Feb 2007 Investigation Into Missing Iraqi Cash Ended in Lebanon Bunker NYT, Oct 2014 The CIA Drug ConnectionIs as Old as the Agency NYT, Dec 1993

    [3] JSC MMC NORILSK NICKEL-ADR 1.3% MOBILE TELESYSTEMS-SP ADR 1.0% MAGNITOGORS - SPON GDR REGS 0.9% LUKOIL - SPONS ADR 0.3%

    STANCERA DUE DILIGENCE QUESTIONNAIRE 2010, PDF

    375:

    Perhaps worth reading (author is Californian, level-headed, and has a treatable cancer so he has a personal interest): Some Notes on California’s Single-Payer Health Care Plan Snippet: History. Don’t make the mistake of thinking that SB562 was some brand new, Bernie-esque health care reform. California Democrats have been introducing universal health care bills of one sort or another for decades. This is California’s seventh attempt, following the introduction of single-payer bills and ballot initiatives in 1992, 1994, 1998, 2003, 2005, and 2009.

    376:

    Not forgetting the Home Army that undertook the Warsaw Rising in 1944. Which was then carefully allowed by Stalin to be all killed by the Nazis & the subsequent propaganda by the soviets that said rising was a capitalist failure. Um

    377:

    I didn't even mention the really dubious stuff yet, since it rhymes with the Iraqi cash locations:

    The attack - a month before the completion of the pounds 7bn sale of Mr Safra's New York and Luxembourg banks to the British banking giant HSBC - sent a shudder through the super rich of Monaco, where violent crime is almost unknown.

    The Republic National Bank of New York - later the Republic New York Corporation - was founded by Mr Safra 33 years ago and the deal selling the bank to the international banking conglomerate HSBC was due to be finalised around 3 January. HSBC said yesterday that Mr Safra's death would not affect the deal but banking analysts and insiders predicted that there might be some delay.

    It was Republic New York which blew the whistle last year on the alleged embezzlement and money-laundering of hundreds of millions of dollars of international aid to Russia through the Bank of New York.

    Billionaire who blew whistle on Russian cash scandal is killed in Monte Carlo Independent, Dec 1999 - pre-current ownership.

    Russia has reached a settlement with Bank of New York Mellon over a $22.5 billion lawsuit against the bank stemming from a 1990s money laundering scheme by one of its executives, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said Wednesday.

    The two-year court case stems from a decade-old scandal in which a Bank of New York vice president and her husband were convicted of illegally wiring $7.5 billion of Russian money into accounts at the bank. The Russian federal customs service went to court in 2007 to claim lost tax revenue on those transfers, but the judge overseeing the hearings urged the two sides to reach a settlement.

    Russia: Bank of N.Y. Mellon settles money laundering case ABC News, 2009 ish.

    ~

    There's a reason Chicago got a reputation for corruption, and well, New York is New York.

    [Serious note: one of the factors in the post-Soviet era is that a lot of them took the whole "predator MBA" Harvard schtick as reality, especially once they'd had a taste of what corruption Chicago / NY could offer. And now... you got Trump.] polite cough

    378:

    And since the Peanut gallery is watching, hi Glenn, some facts:

    1 Mr Safra was Jewish and a notable philanthropist back from the days when Beirut was a financial capital (how people forget this...) 2 The Russian Government really didn't want him killed, they were quite annoyed by the 1998 crash and so forth 3 HSBC has many failings (!) but doesn't appear to have been involved 4 Bruce Rappaport had strong ties to Israel and Antigua but his alleged ties to the CIA and the Deep State are far more notable. His entire bio is basically one long list of guns, tax evasion, dodgy links to Colombian drug lords and even the Contras all with oil and drug and tax dodging money. Oh and the BCCI scandal and Indonesia of course.

    So, yeah: probably not the Russians involved in this little pie.

    Draw your own conclusions. (Hint: "the deep state is shallow" is a lie. LOL).

    379:

    "a heavy toker smokes a lot less of their unfiltered grass than a tobacco user uses cigarettes."

    The thing is, for that one to work it requires ready access to abundant quantities of mediocre weed. Fine if you're somewhere where it grows wild, not so good in places where nature's liberality fails to supervene over human arseholishness.

    Where supply difficulties mean that one has, by contrast, expensive access to small quantities of potent weed, it's not practical to smoke unmixed weed. A quantity appropriate to the potency on its own results in an unsmokable joint which is almost more paper than weed and won't burn properly. To roll one with sufficient bulk to burn smokably requires putting in a ridiculous amount, which is expensive of itself, is also a very wasteful way of using it, and more or less means you have to get thoroughly blitzed whether you want to or not (compare: can't have half a pint of beer, it has to be half a pint of vodka).

    The alternative is to dilute it with some relatively inert bulk material so that combustion is enhanced and regulating the intake properly becomes possible. This is when you find out that kitchen herbs don't burn and smoking grass off the lawn is like gargling with broken glass. The range of possible diluents turns out to be a lot smaller than it might appear, and tobacco comes out pretty much top of the list - its combustion characteristics are close to ideal, and it scores pretty well on being easy to inhale too.

    The result is as WaveyDavey notes: the weed itself remains in the take-it-or-leave-it category, but you get addicted to the nicotine. And the conditions that give rise to this situation are created artificially by the hypocritical and illogical laws that rate drugs according to how many hundreds of years of acceptance they have had among English(-type) upper classes.

    380:

    Also, speaking from experience, the U.S. "Deep State" isn't that deep. In fact, it's really quite shallow. Hanlon's razor and all that.

    Also having a couple of decades of experience in the belly of the beast, I'd mostly agree. Without ruling out the possibility of localized cabals occurring here and there and now and then, it's mostly, IMO and as OGH has opined, an emergent phenomenon. People interact and implicitly establish ways of doing things but don't have a lot of depth if asked to explain or justify why.

    381:

    Regarding Safra - Hermitage Capital Management; Sergei Magnitsky. These happened long after his death, although for fun you can always look up another Chicago boy, Bill Browder who, surprise surprise is also in this pie and has ties to HSBC.

    On the surface, Safra / Bowder were the 'good guys' in the privatization, or at least, very much anti-corruption (c.f. Gazprom) unlike the Harvard / CIA boys.

    And, for Gremlins / Glenn: none of this has anything to do with ethnicity / religion. It's all about a far more fundamental issue. (Unless you can somehow shoe-horn Mossad killing Safra here, which would take some really wild speculation).

    ~

    Where was this going?

    Oh, yep. I miss Beirut, it was one of the foundations of the extended tripartite Abrahamic league in other timelines, the train journey from Beirut to Jerusalem with all the forests and measures against deforestation is a site to behold. (Although, tbh, the entire "We're rebuilding the Garden of Eden" stuff from Saudi Arabia - Israel tourist boards is a bit much - we do see the fudges even if the Iraqi wetlands were saved from saltification recently).

    382:

    Ahh...

    Have you ever seen that Chomsky interview with Andrew Marr? The entire bit about "I'm sure you believe that, you wouldn't be where you are today if you didn't?"

    Interesting thought in the larger scale of things...

    383:

    "Incidentally, the railways already are (arms-length/plausible deniability) nationalised..."

    Well... that's not how I would describe it myself, but I know what you are describing, and I'd say it's that arms-lengthery that's much of the problem. We haven't got rid of the ridiculous tangle of conflicting interests mediated by having to pay money to each other according to formulae heavy with unintended consequences which are then systematically exploited by reason of the usual capitalist profit-before-service priority ordering. We don't have any kind of unification of aims or control; we have a bunch of separate outfits which by the rules of public service ought to be spending money on various enhancements, but under the rules of capitalism there's nothing to make them do it. We have a collection of narrow self-interests the overall effect of whose actions is to reduce flexibility and interoperability, and to fossilise the railway in a state where adapting to future needs becomes ever less possible.

    Round here, the council (what is it with councils that they are always really really stupid?) have this "brilliant" (moronic) idea to build a new station some miles out of town. This is supposed to "take us into the 21st century" and other such meaningless garbage. They think it will make possible useful new services. They still think this even though the relevant franchise operators have said they aren't going to stop there because it would disrupt their existing service patterns too much.

    Worse than that, it actually reduces the service possibilities. Because coupled with the opening of the new station is the proposal to close one of the two stations that are actually in the town. This would mean that one of the three sides of the triangle of routes through the town would no longer have a station.

    To be sure, there aren't currently any through services on that route. But that is not something to be taken advantage of by closing the station. It is, rather, a significant deficiency in the local transport network which has been a pain in the arse for years and needs to be remedied. Stifling the possibility of such a remedy is not the way to go.

    The council are pursuing their own interests in promoting their dumb wanking project. The TOCs are pursuing their own interests in not stopping at it. Network Rail, I guess, are pursuing their own interests in trying to make up some of the cost by closing the existing station. All the different threads pulling in different directions mean we end up with a less flexible and useful railway and cement it in place, wasting a lot of money on it to boot. The only people who will gain are the contractors who build it and the suppliers of wank rags to the council. And similar things happen all over the country, because nothing is coordinated and the means used to assess viability are so fucking bent they can give any answer the ones pulling the strings want them to (while shovelling yet more money at private sector parasites in the process).

    384:

    Where supply difficulties mean that one has, by contrast, expensive access to small quantities of potent weed, it's not practical to smoke unmixed weed. ...

    Comedy Gold.

    As an engineer, let me introduce you to the: BONG Grasscity.

    That's not even mentioning the advanced craft of "buckets", "hot knives", "zoot chute" or other such methods. Teenagers with no engineering degrees can do crazy things with coke cans.

    You guys are really cute. Pro-tip: tobacco / weed mix in spliffs is for when you don't want red-eye and getting utterly blown away. Plus, it's a social thing more than anything else - "don't bogart the joint, man!". (snark).

    It's like watching pandas discuss how they took down a moose to eat. It's technically possible, but not really what happens in the wild.

    p.s.

    Buckets with skunk is where you get on the borderline danger zone. Especially if you're hotboxing at the same time. Full marks if you don't cough and you can dragon it.

    The Camberwell Carrot YT: Film, Withnail and I, 2:54

    385:

    It's funny seeing them called "English" units, when you use them more than we do :) I still haven't got over the shock of reading some report or other produced fairly recently by NASA that used the Rankine scale.

    Two tool kits is annoying, but I find the increasing profusion of silly screw heads much more so, since while the daft units thing is just a matter of "hysterical raisins", the silly screw heads are done on purpose to fuck people up.

    386:

    Um.

    You're aware that NASA actually has a page on this, right? It's to do with fuels.

    The Rankine temperature scale uses the same size degree as Fahrenheit, but has its zero set to absolute zero. To convert from Fahrenheit to Rankine, add 459.67 to the Fahrenheit reading.

    https://cryo.gsfc.nasa.gov/introduction/temp_scales.html

    The English absolute scale, known as the Rankine scale, uses the symbol R and has an increment the same as that of the Fahrenheit scale.

    http://cryogenics.nist.gov/AboutCryogenics/about%20cryogenics.htm

    Unless, you know, you're doing a M2/3 science joke.

    But here's your answer:

    Although cold temperatures may be reported using any temperature scale, the Kelvin and Rankine scales are most common because they are absolute scales that have positive numbers.

    https://www.thoughtco.com/cryogenics-definition-4142815

    There ya go: makes your equations nicer, easier for the Monkeys-in-Spaaaaaace to process.

    /BONG TIME

    387:

    Er, make that AMERIIIICAN MONKIEEEES IN SPAAAACE who might be confused by Celsius / Kelvin and need a positive scale that uses F in critical "OHH FUCK OUR LANDER JUST BLEW OUT A SEAL".

    Center For Kids Who Can't Read Good YT: Film, Zoolander 2:33

    @372

    I wanted to know because it was something I didn't already know. What other reason is there for wanting to know anything?

    Aesthetics, beauty, love, compassion, the list goes on.

    Hint: you've never seen that in a book before. You're not good at this type of thing.

    Anyhow, congrats: you won't see its like again. Enjoy the American Dream there skip.

    388:

    Teenagers with no engineering degrees can do crazy things with coke cans. Teenagers with no engineering degrees can concoct crazy things with lots of implements. One, on the supply side, involved a percolator (long long time ago, pre-internet so invented on the fly, OK? :-), voltage regulator, nasty non-flammable solvents, and other details. And with the internet, it just takes somebody (or somebodies, and rounds of iteration) to work out/simplify/make safer the tech and share the knowledge. (I see it might be called "dabs" now. Been a while since I even looked.)

    The UK whitelist approach to mild-altering drugs is pure nuts. (E.g. lots of plants/fungi contain psychoactives.) (And this is from an American.) Any chance of getting it repealed? (general question to anyone.)

    389:

    Any chance of getting it repealed?

    No.

    Every now and then a government will pretend to dabble in evidence based policy making, think about the tabloid headlines, shy away from the idea and increase sentances instead.

    390:

    Thanks Bill. I hadn't been following it, since it didn't seem like there was serious interest in getting it passed and I've part of a crew working on other, more specialized issues that I do want to see passed.

    In any case, I see the juicy part of the California single-payer plan as rather further down the page, but basically it looks like the bill wasn't ready for prime time, it requires federal buy-in, and so on. So pulling it isn't necessarily a stupid move.

    The deep irony here is that I seem to recall a poll saying that Republicans nationwide dislike single payer health-care somewhat less than they hate Obamacare (55% opposed it this spring, while 80% wanted Obamacare repealed).

    If you want the LooneyTunes version of how the US gets to single payer, it starts with the Republicans getting sick of their current bill (either because they pass it and lose bigly at the ballot box or because they don't pass Trumpcare because they just wanted to repeal Obamacare and not replace it at all), somehow reading/smoking some (tea)leaves that say that single payer healthcare is something that can result in a Government-Medical Complex (think Military Industrial Complex, but not for killing people quickly), and they, along with some democrats, decide to just go for it and smear the reputation of Obama by actually doing something useful for a change, rather than just being against whatever he did on the account of him being black and all.

    While I'm not entirely sure I could go for such a measure, since the DoD has complained that it doesn't want to be a retirement system that also fights wars (and they've still got pull), I could see the US going for single-payer and outsourcing the bureaucracy to the insurance firms as a way to keep them solvent and to keep those campaign funds flowing in from them, or something. Whether it would be a good single-payer system is another. It could end up being the VA For All.

    Or Charles Koch could dies and a bunch of libertarianism dies with him. Stranger things have happened.

    391:

    There is. We're pulling stuff that's casually more unlikely out of the bag all the time now.

    But...

    The cost is high. (Pun intended).

    Along the lines of "T. May actually has orgasm, finds spiritual sanctity in Gaia, declares she's a hippy and ditches her boring husband for a seal she bonded with while taking LSD".

    ~

    But, no, really: It's on the list. We don't post links to connected stuff without knowledge of what a #Wildhunt actually does.

    Pro-tip: A lot of people are betting on a lot of people dying. It's not going so well for them at the moment.

    392:

    Republicans nationwide dislike single payer health-care somewhat less than they hate Obamacare Anecdote and etc, but my favorite wingnut friend (guns, Breitbart fan, etc. Nice guy fwiw, and listens during arguments.) is a single-payer advocate.

    393:

    Oh, I know all about those things, but I deliberately didn't mention them because outside partyesque settings they don't really see a lot of use. Partly this is because they too suffer from the "half a pint of vodka" problem, albeit to a lesser extent, so people reserve them for "special occasions". Partly it's portability; OK, a pipe fits in your pocket, but nothing more complicated does. Partly it's because they're just too much palaver. All that messing about with apparatus... people generally don't want to make such a production out of it. Especially when it involves two gallons of water in the middle of the floor; I've met many people who don't even know what a bucket is. Basically, such devices tend to be the province of people who operate continuously in Fabulous Furry Freak Brothers mode, and most people don't.

    394:

    Your reality is boring, cruel, myopic and dull, and not open to change or HAPPY CAMPERS as you've proven over a couple of years.

    Fuck. That. Noise.

    Pro-tip: Our Predictive Stance is waaaaay beyond your shitty little models or probability trees.

    ~

    The future is bright.

    p.s.

    Admit it. Go on, run the numbers, run the models: we perform waaaaaay beyond what's normal. Admit that, we might be nice. Go on, do some science.

    Narrator: His Ego didn't allow it, he got sucked into the Void along with the Slaved Minds.

    395:

    The entire point of Bongs and recreational drug use is the fetishization of apparatus. You engineers / chemists get to play all day: the hoi polloi don't, so when they do, it's ALLLLL RITUAL.

    (This is actually a serious point - rolling the 'perfect joint' and sharing is part of the ritual; you're missing the social point here).

    Buckets:

    1 x ASDA / TESCO mop + plastic made in China common to every home base 1 x 2 litre coke bottle 1 x knife to cut the base 3cm2 kitchen foil

    Fill Mop Bucket with water. Cut base off coke bottle. Cut foil, pierce with knife with many small holes.

    Use basic physics + flame to create vacuum. --- SCIENCE ---

    This isn't even touching on the drugs where addiction is important like meth / heroin / crack etc. Those cats need to be put on a space station: they'll convert anything into an engineering solution. In fact, all SF novels need an addict in the hibernation suite:

    Ensign: "The entire system is failing, we've run out of supplies, the solar sails are broken and all the coolant is evaporating! Our manuals are useless, we're doomed"

    Captain: "Unfreeze the addict, and tell them there's crack rocks out there in space, we'll be out of this in an hour".

    (To be read in the style of Dave Chappelle. Yellow Cake: Don't Drop That Shit YT: Comedy, David Chappelle, 9:59 - just watch it, you might smile)

    396:

    "AMERIIIICAN MONKIEEEES IN SPAAAACE"

    Yes, it's them. In my experience even pretty old thermodynamics books use Kelvin exclusively. Amusingly, I've seen some early-20th-century article about steam engines that used Fahrenheit in the main body of the text, but switched to Kelvin (complete with explanation of what it was) to report on the thermodynamic performance. To see Rankine actually in use in an actual project by people who don't have top hats and big whiskers was a bit of a culture shock moment.

    397:

    "Bucketless Bucket" - using the bath. "Posh Bucket" - using a wine bottle (cutting the bottom off with a hot wire). "Dry Bucket" - using a plastic bag up inside the bottle, fixed round the rim and with a string attached to the middle, instead of hydraulics. "Low CO2 Bucket" - replacing the flame and tinfoil with a self-heating grid made from an old toaster element and powered from a car battery. "High Tech Low CO2 Bucket" - using a laser. "Fully Automatic Bucket"...

    It tickles me, but most people I've met can't generally be arsed with it. Before such things were readily available it used to be almost de rigeur for anyone who went to Amsterdam for the weekend to bring back a bong or two as souvenirs; they would get used enthusiastically for a week or two, or until the gauze got clogged up, then they'd be relegated to the back of the cupboard and largely forgotten about.

    Sharing joints seems to have gone out of fashion, too; used to be SOP, but I've not seen anyone do it for ages.

    398:

    JBS.

    It's ours. We Wrote it. (More importantly, we lived it). You're a primordial worm for being so utterly rabidly insulting about your need to know "where it came from" without deigning to show any pleasure in reading the words or sniffing the ecstasy behind them. What? You collect random books just to take the fingerprints off their covers to index against their Facial Features in your social network Database? Really? Is toilet paper so rare in your Mad-Max post-Randian world?

    Hollow Man.

    DPB.

    Run the Math, it breaks your models, and we're doing this with a lot of fuzzing. So much fuzzing.

    You have the Data. You have the Dates. You have the Reality. You have the skill set to do it. You're sitting right next to a computer who can do it.

    But, apparently, men cannot run the models. That would be Dangerous. It's not like +80% breaks probability is it?

    DO THE GREP NO MATTER WHAT IT MIGHT SCARE YOU WITH RESULTS: THAT'S SCIENCE, THEY THOUGHT THE SKY MIGHT BURN IN ALAMOS.

    Hollow Man.

    ~

    Between the conception And the creation Between the emotion And the response Falls the Shadow Life is very long

    Between the desire And the spasm Between the potency And the existence Between the essence And the descent Falls the Shadow

    Never have I seen scientists so unable to run probability / curves and then be utterly stupid and insulting about it all. Oh, wait: Alan Turing, so you're just fucking Blinkered Apes who need a fucking spank.

    TIME. YOU'RE NOT GOOD AT IT.

    I is approx same age as OGH, and I think I am a decent sort. This last 12-24 months, I've felt like the simulation hypothesis is true, and somebody is dicking about massively with the settings. There seems to be nothing that is not disturbing.

    Oh, fucking LOL.

    What. Do. You. Think. This. Is. About.

    What. Do. You. Think. This. Is. About.

    What. Do. You. Think. This. Is. About.

    What. Do. You. Think. This. Is. About.

    What. Do. You. Think. This. Is. About.

    What. Do. You. Think. This. Is. About.

    I'd do this in Greek, but hey: Bring me my shears.

    Σείκιλος Εὐτέρ YT - Music. It's fairly old.

    Ὅσον ζῇς φαίνου
    μηδὲν ὅλως σὺ λυποῦ
    πρὸς ὀλίγον ἐστὶ τὸ ζῆν
    τὸ τέλος ὁ χρόνος ἀπαιτεῖ.

    How dare you take SHINE and SING and corrupt them for your bastardized perverted version?

    You've No idea what's coming.

    399:

    Along the lines of "T. May actually has orgasm, finds spiritual sanctity in Gaia, declares she's a hippy and ditches her boring husband for a seal she bonded with while taking LSD". This is an interestingly positive approach. For fun and sanity, starting to think about similar scenarios for some American politicians. (I tried to watch this, stopped after 8 minutes: Mike Pence Speech At Focus On The Family Event 6/23/2017)

    Unfreeze the addict, and tell them there's crack rocks out there in space... This made me laugh. (The video too, at high speed.)

    400:

    Ahh, but we can still do humor. Of both the absurd, the profane and the Sacred.

    Spoiler: Those who have perverted SHINE and SING cannot (well, apart from on the far reaches of cruelty levels that they're attempting with Health Care bills).

    You're probably not going to get it, but I just sent a flare up. Nose Wiggle

    You might want to look at the SONG used to challenge the SHINE perversion.

    ~

    It's all very esoteric. Getting DPB etc to run the numbers on probability is kinda (never going to happen, he's too stubborn, but potentially could, so exists in a Timeline) just us showing off (as is the Russia / Harvard stuff).

    Bottom line: SHINE AND SING have been perverted, and we're going to sort that out. Race, Religion, Gender, (insert all teh things) really don't matter.

    1-2-3-4, you declared thumb war!

    Now it's our turn. We're going to burn your fucking Minds out since that's what you attempted.

    No. All of your kind.

    SHINE and SING how fucking dare you.

    401:

    Never have I seen scientists so unable to run probability / curves and then be utterly stupid and insulting about it all. Just in this blog and willfully ignoring the broader world, by mid 2016 the null hypothesis(es) had been pushed out pretty far, if one was paying attention and had a Bayesian mindset. (But you know that. And I don't much care about being mocked by others.) (Remembering an overt hint about the markets and boring and Thursdays in early 2016; watched the markets attentively that day, was amused.)

    I'm happily expecting things to get a lot weirder.

    402:

    (Hint: "the deep state is shallow" is a lie. LOL).

    Milady, I'd sleep a lot better at night if this were true. It'd mean someone with power actually had their eye on the horizon. That someone in a position to make a difference, even if only someone evil, was actually competent and had something resembling a plan for the future. That they weren't all just petty, oblivious lemmings running backward toward the cliff's edge.

    403:

    Because I don't want to see WWIII start! The point is that Russia has nowhere to retreat to, either geographically or politically, and the USA/NATO are STILL pushing. It has been almost begging for diplomatic solutions, and the USA/NATO has been saying "We are the 800 pound gorilla and don't negotiate - give way, totally, or else". It has its back to the wall, which last happened in 1941. If the USA/NATO push any further, Russia WILL fight, because it has no reasonable alternative.

    What audacity! How much do Russia's neighbors have to kowtow and please Moscow so that it's satisfied? You cite NATO training drills in the Baltics, yet there are also drills like Zapad 2017 (9th in the series) taking place near Pskov, which is right next to the Baltic states. Also Russian fighters have a tendency to get lost in NATO airspace to the tune of 110 times in 2016. Only after Russia's army presence in Ukraine became blatantly obvious were there talks of stationing a NATO battalion in Estonia. I would like to believe that Russia is looking for dialogue and cooperation with the west, except most of that seems to be all pretty soundbites and no substantial action. And if we add in all the other events such as the Georgia invasion, Crimea and unrest in Ukraine, then please tell me how is anyone supposed to take Russia in good faith. Putin might be sane, but seems to exist in some weird world of Russian imperialism which does not work well with anyone else. Believe me, the Baltics would gladly not take part of NATO and US hegemony, but as things currently are, the US did not occupy them for 50 years and send their people to die in the GULAGs. Russia seems to expect everybody to forget every bad thing about the USSR without even apologizing, yet also it expects everybody to respect Russia's geopolitical interests in the "near-abroad" (coincidentally what used to be the USSR). This is like rationalizing the behavior of an abusive husband.

    404:

    Worcester, almost certainly? [ Shrub Hill & Foregate Street, respectively & the insane "parkway" where the Ex-GWR SE-NW line crosses over the ex-MR NE-SW line ...] Yess fucking bonkers - almost as good as improving Upney in fact (!)

    405:

    There has been much alarm about the "white list" as many commom & not-so-common garden herbs, both culinary & medicinal are NOT on the list. And some herbalist/pharma chain-shops have been very concerned about this. Enthusiastic herb-growers like me are waiting for the first idiot prosecution by some ultra-thick plod. Remember that most of the "Mints" Labatiae are also medicinal as well as, or instead of culinary. Let's not go into (English common names) Rue, Wormwood or some of the "Nightshades" - which include potato & tomato & all the chilis, of course.

    What's happened, is, presently a truce, since its so obviously bonkers.

    See also this major chain of herbal suppliers, found in almost evry major high street in the country Holland & Barrett

    406:

    Not forgetting ... Fat Freddy's Cat, of course. Mrreow

    407:

    In a very (VERY) early "Dr Who" episode - I was still at scool & my father was amused by the whole thing, there was a csual reference to an "outside temperature" in negative-Fahrenheit [ Note* ], which was BELOW ABSOLUTE ZERO, in the Rankine scale ... he boggled for a moment, then nearly fell out of his chair laughing ... it took him some time to explain it to me. ( Who was already using what was then called the m-k-s system of units, of course )

    Note* I think it was "minus 470", or similar - probably deliberately put in as a wind-up by the scriptwriters, now I think of it .....

    408:

    A lot of the talk above has made me sad, and fearful, both of my personal future, and my thee teenage children's. bu happily, your "Addict as emergency fixer" made me laugh, a deep and real laugh. Thank you.

    409:

    Bah. s/thee/three

    410:

    De-lurking commenced.

    As long as you live, shine.

    Really lovely. Poignant to tears.

    Thanks.

    411:

    Sigh. I know why you are so emotional, and I don't expect you to trust Russia an inch (for very good reasons), but you are being politically naive. Sorry, but .... The USA doesn't give a brass fuck about you, except as a stick to beat Russia with and, if it does attempt a military blockade using you as a base, you will get trodden on in the conflict. You have also increased the chances of a Russian invasion, in the unlikely chance that the USA dismantles NATO.

    412:

    Yes, OF COURSE, it's a sodding emergent phenomenon, and of the USA military-industrial complex, too (Ike was right), not the political or bureaucratic complexes, let alone the chattering classes. That's been bloody obvious for over half a century, just as the equivalent in the UK has been for three decades (though, in our case, it's the mandarinate getting into bed with the unregenerate plutocrats). But, as I have said ad tedium before, organisations often have mindsets not shared by their members. In this case, there is only a loose association (at most), but it STILL acts like an inchoate and amorphous entity - i.e. with a mindset of its own. But that makes it a LOT more dangerous, as there is no organisation to contact and persuade it to pull back from the brink. Thank God for Tillerson, but even he won't be able to halt the drift towards the precipice, let alone reverse it.

    Please don't swallow the strawmen that several posters try to put into my mouth, in lieu of debating the issues. I do not subscribe to them, and my postings didn't imply them.

    413:

    Right. I was advised to use lavender oil for insomnia by a NHS nurse - it's not great, but helps a little, and is not noticeably addictive - sedatives are definitely psychoactives, and it's not a common food ingredient. I can't remember if it was one of the few to get on the whitelist, but I am damn sure that I could find something in either my kitchen or garden that isn't, and doesn't have the 'get out of gaol free' card by being 'commonly eaten in food' or whatever the wording is.

    Harking back to #399, the Maybot would definitely be improved by such treatment. We could establish a political party on a platform of requiring all cabinet ministers to get high and have an orgy once a month, and stand against her (and Rees-Smug, clearly).

    414:

    Thanks, it's a nicely turned phrase. I'll stick with JReynolds' comment at 336 as my headcanon though, IYDM.

    415:

    If Russia can't join NATO, they should join the EU. I hear the EU is shortly going to be in need of an old imperial power.

    416:

    TL:DR - Russia wants a similar amount of respect and fear that the US gets on the world stage and on its borders in particular. And guess what its functionally exactly an 800lb gorilla as far as Eastern Europe and Baltics are concerned AND from their world view they have a number of reasons to feel agrieved about not getting that - regardless of whether outside observers would agree.

    Right vs Wrong, History vs Now, "Good US" Guys vs "Bad USSR" Guys, Morality (yea really!) doesn't come into it.

    Which I think is essentially what your arguments boil down to, without subjective justifications for it? If I've deciphered your essential feelings on the topic from previous posts is far less about what what you feel Russia does/does not deserve than a well founded fear about what their actions might be if the "pushes" continue.

    As an aside I do wonder after ~50 years of Cold war - how much our subconscious is still hard wired to think of the US as the good guys and Russia as the bad guys - even for the enlightened residents of this blog.

    417:

    Yes but how much rebate would they want?

    418:

    How are the Datura plants coming along, Greg? Sage is pretty easy to grow but it's annoyingly hard to get cuttings of the more interesting members of the Salvia family and they rarely throw viable seed.

    One side effect of austerity cuts is the UK police don't have much time for the low end of the war on drugs. So while everything is technically illegal, in reality there's more actual drug use than ever. As long as it doesn't get too obviously and publicly messy, and people don't actually die so it doesn't get the attention of the tabloids, it appears nobody cares much. Even the stories about weed factory raids and big busts seem to be reducing in number. Which sounds like yesterday's PMQs. Get some suitably ambiguous laws on the books so we can say "We're doing something" but don't actually fund the enforcement or implementation.

    419:

    You have also increased the chances of a Russian invasion, in the unlikely chance that the USA dismantles NATO.

    I'm genuinely puzzled (as an obvious target of the strawmen that several posters try to put into my mouth, in lieu of debating the issues comment). I'm not sure how quoting your exact words, in context, and then asking you to explain what you mean, is "a straw man".

    Regarding your statements about "NATO expansion" - what do you think the "Near Abroad" should have done in 1991 to secure their independence, and how do you think that Russia would have reacted if they chose to act in their own interests, when those interests diverged from those of Moscow?

    You state that Russia is behaving understandably given its worldview and history (fair enough - and it was good to see you rolled back on your comment about the Poles, but disappointing that you ignored the Holodomor and didn't do the same for the Ukraine). I can agree with your statement, but disagree that Russia is being reasonable. "Understandable" is not the same as "justified".

    You insist that the West is "actually waging (so far largely non-military) war" against Russia (your exact words, in context, @344). Secondly, you stated "Russia isn't a nice country, but it IS facing a real, existential threat from the USA and NATO, and has essentially nowhere left to retreat to. That is a major reason that the Russian people support Putin."

    Have you an example of such an act of war? You suggest a military aspect, with your "largely" qualifier. Unless you can provide a credible example, your statement is just empty rhetoric with added handwaving.

    Please note that I have placed no words in your mouth, merely asked you to clarify your own exact statements, and requested that you provide examples to illustrate your assertions.

    420:

    Or at least as the US as the significantly-less-bad guys? Which no longer applies, esp with DT about ....

    421:

    Those not eaten by the skugs are OK Of course there's the "Used since approx 1100" ornamental that's also a cooking ingredient, which contains opiates ( Not very much, because not enough UV in the UK ) ... P. somniferum. I suppose over 900 years of custom & practice wipes that one off the list .... Meanwhile an unknown solonaceous plant is coming up in one of my windowboxes. At this stage, I can't tell wheter it's Atropa belladonna or Hyoscymus niger - but I'll soon find out, once it gets a little larger (!)

    422:

    I'm not sure that the US has ever been the "significantly less bad guys" at best they've been "our" bad guys - for Western world values of "our".

    423:

    The US was fine, until WW2 broke it of its isolationist habits.
    Post WW2 ... not so much. The fifties were particularly bad, we're most working through the repercussions of that today, just as the first half of last century was spent working through the leftovers of the colonial empires.

    424:

    The US was fine, until WW2 broke it of its isolationist habits.

    I think you mis-spelled "the Spanish-American war". Or maybe the Indian Wars. HTH.

    425:

    Re: 'US (NATO) war against Russia ...'

    Nationalistic egos on both sides are obscuring reality. It's ridiculous that there's so much talk and posturing about a military war when both of these post-WW2 superpowers are losing the real war to China$$$.

    Besides --- just where the hell is Putin getting money/budget for war machines anyways? It's not like Russia has been doing particularly great in the global marketplace since its high roller 1999 GDP performance. (Only 0.5% GDP growth in Q1 2017 after over 2 years of neg GDP.) Unless you think that Putin's convinced his cronies to 'repatriate' some funds that they had socked away for just such a rainy day?

    Aside from the $$$ needed for war-making, Russia would also need men - and they're a pretty scarce resource just now. The employable are crossing borders for jobs, and the unemployable are probably not fit for military. (Unlikely that chauvinist Putin would trust women to operate strategic, expensive war machines.)

    426:

    About shipping dollars - let's not forget about the many pallets of shrink-wrapped bill shipped into Iraq - you can find pics and videos from '03/'04 - and how they have ZERO receipts or paperwork on where they went.

    427:

    Would you accept "having bit off more than it could chew easily domestically, the Americans kept out of international affairs for as long as possible"?

    There was definitely a profound shift from internal squabbles and land grabs for a century and a half to interfering everywhere else in the world for half a century.

    From the point of view of outsiders, the USA was a perfectly fine country up until the end of WW2, so long as you weren't black, female, indigenous, or a country immediately nearby. Then they decided the rest of the world was up for grabs as well, since the other empires were backing off.

    428:

    Re: Russia-Syria military trade

    Considering that Syria's ag and oil-based economy has been hurt by the 6-yr civil war, it's unlikely that Syria can afford Russian-built arms, planes, etc. for much longer. Again - much depends on how much money was hidden/off-shored by the present regime for just such a contingency.

    429:

    I see the tripartite Abrahamic League may or may not have been founded (I almost typed fondued) in '71, but are there novels about this that you read?

    Or, if you can actually go to a parallel, how could I induce you to take me over one way or the other, one timeline, there's Someone I want to see again who's not on this one any more.

    But no, you're probably like my ex-pat manager: I hear the Tardis coming into his office, but will he take me? Nooooooo.

    430:

    Torx screws. CRAPOLA! First it was "nobody has the drivers for it, so it's Secure", then it was "Oh, less likely to strip".... Everybody uses small Phillips heads to screw hard drives into sleds for hot-swap drive bays in server... except for HP, who insist on torx....

    431:

    Now waitaminute: the Freak Bros, 90% of the time, used either joints they rolled, or a simple pipe.

    ObDisclosure: I'd be willing to play a much older Freewheelin' Frank, and my old friend Neil Rest in Chi-town, well, he's long since tired of everyone saying he is Phineas.

    And Scat...ah, yes, the one and only True Cat in all of comics. "Fat one, you haven't changed my litter in three weeks. I'll pee in your hanging potted fern, and you'll never know where the smell's coming from...."

    I've got it! We get Scat (Fat Freddy's Cat) to come out of retirement, with his security clearance from when he worked for The Chief, and take care of the Orange One - it'd be child's play for him.

    432:

    Aside from the $$$ needed for war-making, Russia would also need men - and they're a pretty scarce resource just now

    A point that often gets lost in the noise is that conscription is stupidly expensive (in addition to not delivering high quality soldiers). Assuming a working life lasts 50 years (age 18-68, say), then a universal one year enlistment soaks up up to 2.5% of aggregate manpower. (1.25% if you exempt women, even less if medical/other exemptions are widespread, but one year seems to be the minimum: IIRC Russian army enlistment is for two years.) If you offset that against GDP/economic productivity it's a huge drain. Indeed, that's before you factor in the cost of equipment and consumables! And compares badly to the under-2% of GDP average defense spend of those NATO members with professional militaries.

    It made sense in the 1800s and through the early 20th century, and it maybe makes sense if you plan to occupy a conquered enemy nation and want a couple of pairs of boots on every street corner, but modern warfare is hugely capital-intensive and relies on complex systems and conscripts are generally not good at it.

    433:

    Ah, yes. As I believe I've said here, before, Trunp might think of himself as Lex luthor, and I agree. The only problem with that is, if he was the post-1989 Crisis on Infinite Earths, he'd be seriously a) evil, and b) competent, and capable of looking at a long-term interest.

    Unfortunately, he's the Lex Luthor of the first Superman movie, who's bought lots of land in Nevada, and is trying to steal nukes to hit the San Andreas Fault, knocking California into the ocean, and leaving him with all this valuable beachfront property....

    434:

    An example of the West, now, waging a non-military existential war against Russia?

    What newspapers do you read, if any? 1. Russia has always wanted warm water port(s). The West desperately wants to deny them that. That, as someone noted, is why they support Syria, no matter what Assad does. 2. It was massive, overwhelming economic pressure that destroyed the USSR. With all the sanctions, etc, can you give me any reason why any rational person would not think they were continuing that, hoping to break Russia into smaller parts, more assimilable by the West?

    Note that I did not like the previous pro-Russian government of the Ukraine*, but they were using assassination; the current, pro-Western one, turned it into a civil war, with at least tens of thousands of casualties. I do not see that as an improvement....

    • One set of my grandparents came from Odessa, in the Ukraine. I therefore claim the right to call it whatever I want.
    435:

    Besides --- just where the hell is Putin getting money/budget for war machines anyways?

    Same way as always - war on the cheap.

    Roll out a few prototypes on the May Day parades (keeps the design bureaux busy and up to speed), then declare a major new capability (see T-14 Armata); meanwhile, thrash your existing kit for best effect (fly your BLACKJACK on a tour around NATO coastlines, send the KUZNETSOV and its tug[1] off to bomb Syria).

    Shovel your older equipment out of the warehouses, and off to the local hooligans (see: Donbass) having fired them up with revolutionary fervour, and only step in with your own regulars to keep the front lines steady if said locals look like they're losing. If you need to invade somewhere quickly, use the Spetsnaz (see: Crimea).

    Meanwhile, conduct "hybrid war" - good propagandists, hackers, and information warfare can be more cost-effective than driving a couple of armoured divisions around close to the border with the Baltic states... release some emails, push the fake news, offer the right backhanders and you might influence an election in favour of your policy goals :)

    [1] That Russian aircraft carrier[2] allegedly never sails anywhere without an ocean-going tug in attendance; it's not got a very good reliability record...

    [2] Arrived in the Med, promptly flew its air wing ashore; those aircraft weren't striking ISIS from the sea, but from local land bases. Allegedly, the Russian Navy could count all its carrier-qualified pilots on two hands, and have thumbs and fingers left over.

    436:

    It wasn't just support of renewable energy sources. I always assumed (though I doubted that assumption when I heard noöne else say it) that the Obama Adminiastration's at-best-clouded eye turned toward the damage done by 'fracking' for petroleum and gas was the result of a foreign policy decision, our major non-Korean opponents (Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia—'frenemy' at best) all being petroleum- and gas-money–dependent.

    437:

    Meanwhile an unknown solonaceous plant is coming up in one of my windowboxes. Out of curiousity, how is the fact that Psilocybe semilanceata can be found in the wild in the UK dealt with by UK law? Genuine question. (My area of the US doesn't have wild Psilocybes, just Amanita Muscaria which is (said to be) unpleasant unless somebody else processes it with their body and you drink their urine.)

    438:

    And many other psychoactive fungi, including Amanita muscaria. When they were illegalised, the law referred to 'processing' them, but didn't define that; they were not illegal to eat 'unprocessed', but whether picking them was allowed or you had to graze like a cow was unclear. I don't know what the new law says, but it isn't going to be more rational.

    439:

    Jeff Sessions is old enough to understand why Nixon touched off the Drug War. The first policy statement he made was that he planned to restart federal marijuana prosecutions, and I have no doubt who he's really going after.

    440:

    Just to educate you a little, here's the Erlichman quote:

    The Nixon campaign in 1968, and the Nixon White House after that, had two enemies: the antiwar left and black people. You understand what I’m saying? We knew we couldn’t make it illegal to be either against the war or black, but by getting the public to associate the hippies with marijuana and blacks with heroin, and then criminalizing both heavily, we could disrupt those communities. We could arrest their leaders, raid their homes, break up their meetings, and vilify them night after night on the evening news. Did we know we were lying about the drugs? Of course we did.

    And here's a link to research on the history of the U.S. drug war. Definitely worth a read.

    Happy learning!

    441:

    Yes, precisely. As you know, there's a lot more, which was published in sources like Reuters, the New York Times and Washington Post - plus, of course, sources like the Independent, Guardian and Al Jazeera.

    442:

    What newspapers do you read, if any?

    Economist, BBC, Private Eye; very occasional forays into Russia Today for contrast

    Russia has always wanted warm water port(s). The West desperately wants to deny them that. That, as someone noted, is why they support Syria, no matter what Assad does.

    Lacking a Naval base in the Mediterranean is not a threat to the existence of Russia, by any measure. And it's warships we're talking about - the Bosphorous is a rather busy seaway, so it's not about civilian traffic.

    It was massive, overwhelming economic pressure that destroyed the USSR.

    Nope, it was "trying to keep up with the Jones'" that did for them. They chose to do the "spend a huge percentage of national wealth on vanity projects and sabre-rattling" thing, beyond the point of necessity. The paranoia levels of Andropov et al didn't help. Launching military space stations (look up Almaz - gun turrets on a space station?)

    By contrast, the Peoples' Republic of China chose to focus on internal development, not external; and didn't throw away their national wealth to the point of self-destruction. Better accountants, perhaps?

    With all the sanctions, etc, can you give me any reason why any rational person would not think they were continuing that, hoping to break Russia into smaller parts, more assimilable by the West?

    Those would be the sanctions imposed only after Russia invaded the Ukraine? The ones that will go away once it stops sending its own troops across the border, and stops arming and directing the separatists? Unless you mean some other sanctions? [1]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_the_Ukrainian_crisis

    I'm curious - how should the world have reacted to the seizure of the Crimea, and the invasion of the Donbass region?

    [1] You couldn't possibly be referring to the Russian-imposed sanctions on the import of foreign goods...

    443:

    Meanwhile, conduct "hybrid war" - good propagandists, hackers, and information warfare can be more cost-effective than driving a couple of armoured divisions around

    Yes, but it depends how you wage it. Literally. US Cyber Command is apparently unable to recruit competent hackers — a combination of (a) shit pay compared to Silicon Valley/private sector, (b) piss tests (oddly, the more creative pentester types tend to smoke the odd joint or use smart drugs: almost by definition good hackers are non-conformist and not socially conservative, the job takes a very twisty mind), and (c) a chain of command optimized to stamp out any tendency among subordinates to get creative/experimental or to disobey orders. Classic example was one guy who realized the PCs at some cyber command HQ were vulnerable to password exploits. He didn't try to hack them — just wrote a memo warning about the vulnerability — and ended up getting shitcanned (presumably for making the brass look bad). Worst case is, either you get utter incompetents or you get the potential for a bunch of Chelsea Mannings (i.e. competent but too much initiative by half).

    Of course, this works both ways. North Korea has a home-built OS based on Linux that is apparently crawling with exploits everyone in the developed world thought had been patched a decade ago. The Norks aren't exactly overflowing with competent kernel hackers; merely learning how to develop for the OS would have required learning English and having access to internet fora, which meant being a political liability.

    Russia (and to some extent the USA, once you get away from the uniformed branch cyber-command nonsense) seem to get by by leveraging private sector organizations on a contract basis, who can work on a much looser leash than the military. Hence all those "patriotic" independent hackers who Moscow lavishes praise on. Their pay-off is probably immunity from prosecution as long as they don't bite the feeding hand.

    444:

    Nit-picking ahoy:

    Lacking a Naval base in the Mediterranean is not a threat to the existence of Russia, by any measure.

    We may not see it that way, but I suspect the way the Crimean War is taught in their history lessons at school frames the lesson rather differently. And that's before we get to the significance of Romania's oil fields in 1940-45.

    Launching military space stations (look up Almaz - gun turrets on a space station?)

    I hear your Almaz and raise you Polyus (lasers! Nuclear space mines! Bigger than Skylab! So bugfuck that Tom Clancy couldn't have invented it! Crashed on its first and only flight due to a software bug ...)

    By contrast, the Peoples' Republic of China chose to focus on internal development, not external; and didn't throw away their national wealth to the point of self-destruction. Better accountants, perhaps?

    This only happened after Mao died and the soft coup against the Gang of Four and the end of the Cultural Revolution. Before that China was not in good shape, economically.

    445:

    Changing topics slightly ... and I think this crowd might enjoy it.

    From: Asses driving the planet toward self-destruction

    To: Asteroids from spaaace that might destroy the planet

    Tomorrow is world asteroid day - 24-hr long marathon ...

    'ABOUT THE 24 HOUR BROADCAST*

    Asteroid Day LIVE will be the first-ever 24-hour live broadcast about space, and specifically asteroids, airing on June 30, 2017 made possible by support from OHB, SES, BCE and the Luxembourg Government. Asteroid Day LIVE includes six hours from Luxembourg in addition to live programming from ESA, JAXA and NASA. The six-hour broadcast from Luxembourg plus hours of other international programming is creating a global conversation about some of the most important asteroid missions and new discoveries, with scientists and experts around the world.'

    https://asteroidday.org/our-story/

    • I'll be AFK all day tomorrow, so hope someone records it for future viewing.
    446:

    I don't know the whitelist approach, but I do know that things like Datura are legal in the US because doctors want people who ingested them to have no qualms about going to the hospital. There's a reason most of the southern California Indian tribes used Datura as a test to see if their teenagers were ready to become fully functioning adults: if you do it wrong, you die, and the test was really about the willingness to follow instructions under dire circumstances. There's a certain pragmatism to keeping a bunch of down-list drugs legal, and apparently it's the ER doctors pushing that approach.

    That said, I agree that drug prosecutions are as much about social politics as anything else. It didn't get anywhere, but I heartily support Congresswoman Gwen Moore's attempt to get the 1% drug tested if they claimed itemized tax deductions over $150,000. After all, if they're benefiting that much from welfare, they'd better be paragons of society.

    447:

    I don't know the whitelist approach https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitelist https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blacklisting

    Basically, whitelisting is allowing a limited and well-defined subset of things out of a space of possible things. In this case mind-altering substances. Blacklisting is the reverse - disallowing a subset. False positives/False negatives are "problems" being solved. Elderly Cynic might correct my language if necessary, or supply a formal definition. :-) Not sure when these terms started being used for things (sometimes abstract) rather than human-level entities and organizations - pretty sure spam and malware detectors/blockers were using the terms by the 1990s, whitelisting being the inverse of blacklisting, so obvious. Blacklisting goes back at least to the McCarthy era in the US.
    ( Another link : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blacklist_(computing) )

    449:

    Somehow, that reminds me of my nomination for "most hilarious scene in a Bond film"... "Don't... do that." from "The World Is Not Enough" :D

    450:

    "Unlikely that chauvinist Putin would trust women to operate strategic, expensive war machines."

    I don't know what the actual situation is, but my expectation would be rather different, given that the Soviet Union had plenty of women doing the kind of heavy-industry things that are still more or less male-only in the West, and there were a lot of women in their army in WW2.

    451:

    "after ~50 years of Cold war - how much our subconscious is still hard wired to think of the US as the good guys and Russia as the bad guys"

    I get the impression that there's an awful lot of that. There was a brief respite when the wall came down and everyone assumed that Russia was going to become just like us, but when that didn't happen attitudes relapsed to what they had been before, with a chunk of "they had a chance and look what they did with it" as "justification".

    For myself, I didn't really find that simplistic view all that attractive. I felt that while it was certainly possible that the USSR would launch first, it was the chance of a cock-up that created that risk; as far as their desire and intention was concerned, they did not want it to happen. If a nuclear war started because someone did want a war to happen, it would be the US.

    (And in the sketch I wrote at school in which one of our teachers accidentally started WW3, even though it was a cock-up scenario I still had the US being the first to launch :))

    I do think that that having been my attitude for so long helps to incline me to agreement with EC's views on Russia today.

    452:

    Oh, so that's where the sudden influx of links to "OH NOES ASTEROID IMPACT" articles on various sites came from.

    453:

    Re: '... given that the Soviet Union had plenty of women doing the kind of heavy-industry things ...'

    Putin's not at all like that; he's pretty reactionary from a social perspective. Below is an excerpt from a Time article covering John Oliver's bit on what certain macho world leaders/idiots said re: International Women's Day.

    “Women give us life and perpetuate it in our children,” President Putin said via a translator according to an official blog post. “We will do our utmost to surround our dear women with care and attention, so that they can smile more often.”

    Putin's also handed out marital advice to women ... and you'll never guess what he recommended ...

    454:

    Always check something like this, every week if paranoid. (Only covers known NEOs. So to speak.) https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/

    455:

    Could be ...

    Rather hoping they inject some Queen as background music considering Brian May's one of the org's founders. Maybe this short Google Doodle (FM's 65 b'day)... it's even got space stuff in it. :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX2BQM0D01M

    456:

    Sigh, no-one gets the links. #303 etc

    Glenn: Safra was involved with a scandal involving Labour and Rabin / Peres involving funding (Narrator: of course he was funding the Left in Israel, he'd seen what happened to Lebanon and didn't want Israel to enter a right-wing fascist political ideology either). Oh, and of course Rabin got took out in '95, this was a huge consolidation move at the time. (And no, we're not buying the whole "I love him so much I wanted mai sempai to notice me" cover story over Sefra's death - it's notable his brother (largest $$$ personal wealth in areas) fucked off to Brazil).

    I'll let you track down how Rappaport and dubious Georgian Mafia were connected, esp. via Israel and the CIA. It's not exactly a coincidence that the Contras, Reagan/Bush, Israel and so forth are all tied into the pie and how Israel went from a fairly benign / idealistic project (60-80s) into overt Authoritarianism. (And yes: Beirut was mentioned for a reason - it's where the entire M.E. moves into a death spiral).

    TL;DR

    Israel is no different to the USA or Russia. It's central to M.E. politics and of course there were people fighting over its future.

    There's 'good' ones and 'bad' ones and all the minuscule trivial barriers people put up to form Categories between themselves in-between. It just so happens that the bad ones kinda kill off the good ones.

    And p.s. No-one noticed the joke involving who was/is arming the PKK Kurds with ex-Soviet MANPADS and so forth. Hint: lots of criminal groups, some happen to be Jewish, some happen to be Kurdish, some happen to be Albanian, some happen to be Romanian, some happen to be Serbian[1]. ("Brother's Circle" my arse). It's a joke about an Eastern block Mafia war between Kurdish / Georgian Jewish groups; as soon as the Kurds got MANPADS, USA panicked. (Too late, Turkey had already flipped - c.f. Qatar / troops etc).

    [1] Another joke you missed about J. Sachs is his often unmentioned side-line between Poland and Russia. Pro-tip: it's where a lot of bad blood between Putin and Clinton started. Go look it up... oh, and the KLA were running drugs and everyone knew about it.

    In fact, Mr Sachs basically states it wasn't Russia who shafted his work there...

    Weee.

    ~

    Where was I?

    Oh, right. No, the asteroid panic is about this:

    Scientists can’t rule out collision with asteroid flying by Earth in 2029 BGR, June 28th, 2017

    457:

    Yes, but it depends how you wage it. Literally. US Cyber Command is apparently unable to recruit competent hackers...

    The problem for the UK is that the comparative salary for an experienced and capable senior cyber security type, able to consult at board level, with maybe a decade of experience, is more than a Major-General earns. HM Armed Forces still operate on a "pay depends on rank+time, not performance" basis (with some adjustments for specialists - flying pay, parachute pay, SF pay, retention bonuses, etc).

    The UK appears to be trying to make cyber-warfare a reservist capability, aiming to keep people current by getting industry to train and pay them; having realised that (like the SBS and all those diver qualifications in the 70s/80s) if you train regular soldiers up and pay them peanuts compared to the outside world, they'll leave. They've apparently got the first batches of such reservists in, and they've managed to get the more "Regimental" types to stop chewing their pace sticks over the sight of slightly long-haired and scruffy types who turn up for the cool challenge, not the bullshit. You can look at the job specification on the web; I'd be tempted if the kids were older ;)

    The irony is that the cyber types would be more culturally attuned to the Intelligence Corps (full of long-haired scruffy types, and Corporals with degrees and a willingness to speak truth to the General) rather than the Royal Signals (slightly too many shouty types with an obsession about lining vehicles up in Div HQ and having name-tapes on their jackets).

    Unfortunately, there's a shortage of professionally-qualified technical types among the officer side of the Royal Signals (more so than in the Royal Engineers, or REME) - as I tell one of my Arts-graduate friends who went there, surely he's got a Sergeant-Major to tell him what the blinky lights mean...

    458:

    We may not see it that way, but I suspect the way the Crimean War is taught in their history lessons at school frames the lesson rather differently.

    Indeed, but it comes back to the point at which "understandable" behaviour stops being "justifiable" behaviour. I grew up in different countries across Europe; my kneejerk response is to believe that people are basically the same in most countries, not that "we" are right and "they" are wrong; I'm an internationalist by nature, not a nationalist.

    However, if you've got to arrest or murder opposition politicians, ban free assembly and free speech, and remove any independent media (by banning them, or by killing their journalists) then I'd suggest that there's something much bigger wrong with that government - explaining away their strategic behaviour by mentioning a two-century-old and rather selective view of history, misses the point.

    Britain mostly managed to get over the "losing an Empire" thing (apart from the types who furiously rustle their Daily Telegraph, write letters in green ink, and froth at the mouth if you mention staying in the EU). We've wound back the chippiness quotient in our grand strategic actions, and we've managed to transition from Empire to democracy without any purges or tyranny, and without too much corruption. We didn't even invade our near abroad when terrorists used it as a safe haven...

    We've managed to achieve this without insisting that our history books teach how the USA betrayed us over Suez in 1956, or how our Empire (the greatest in the World!) was slowly encroached on by the USA and stolen from us by acts of economic warfare...

    And that's before we get to the significance of Romania's oil fields in 1940-45.

    Not sure what you were getting at, there?

    459:

    Interesting, and nice to see: abstract (paper has lots of detail and more maps for those with access) - Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States (29 June 2017) The via phys.org article is not bad and the color map ... overlaps quite a bit with US political maps. :-) Study: Climate change damages US economy, increases inequality This research was funded by grants from the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Energy, Skoll Global Threats Fund, and by a nonpartisan grant awarded jointly by Bloomberg Philanthropies, the Office of Hank Paulson, and Next Generation Oops. :-) Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. ... When applied to the U.S. economy, this approach provides a probabilistic and empirically derived "damage function,"... Figure 1A is particularly eye-catching, a bar chart with little varying-colored images of the U.S.. (Red is bad.) Now to read the thing, see how strong it is.

    460:

    Shit I CBA to deal with right now:

    1 MRA / ROOSH bollocks.

    Look, there's a decent book I wrote on this subject that totally destroys all of their arguments, but let's cut to the chase:

    Someone. Stage. A. Rescue. For. That. Man's. Pet. Dog. And. Gerbil.

    There is no potential friendship between them, it's purely for sex and procreation. If you cannot have a woman as anything but ...

    OH G_D. THE GOLDFISH TOOOO...

    Call the fucking RSPCA, it ain't right.

    2 The next time anyone misuses Machiavelli, just fucking shoot them.

    Machiavelli, a primer for idiots:

    A) Republican, not a Monarchist B) Hated the power structures in Italy at the time (in fact, had limbs broken + exile for his views) C) IT'S FUCKING SATIRE YOU DUMB FUCKING MUPPETS D) Anytime you use Machiavelli unironically, you're actually buying into some fairly old-timer propaganda (can you guess by whom? yep, the families it was directed against) that lasted oooh, 200+ years or so.

    Well done!

    3 Pizza + Pineapple + Jokes = IGNORANT

    A) First off, the idea of combining pineapple with cheese pre-dates Pizza by at least 100 years:

    In 1808 a man named Lewis M Norton, from Goshen, Connecticut, was given a Pineapple cheese which had been brought from Holland. Apparently, being a cheesemaker he decided he wanted to make his own "Pine-Apple Cheese" so he began to find a way. By 1810 he patented the process which creates these fancy cheeses which became a very sought after luxury. Later his son Robert learned the business well and continued to make this cheese through most of the 19th century.

    http://www.victorianpassage.com/2014/04/pineapple_cheese.php

    B) The Victorians loved pineapple. It's not even a 19th Century fruit!!

    Although Frederick Nutt did not add his name to his famous book, 'The Complete Confectioner', it is understood that it was out of respect for another famous confectioner, Domenico Negri, at the 'Pot and Pineapple' shop in Berkley Square, where Nutt had been formally apprenticed. This probably means that many of the recipes contained in this manuscript and 'The Complete Confectioner' are from the 'Pot and Pineapple' as well as his later places of employment.

    http://www.oldcooksbooks.com/master_book_by_let_search.php?passed_book_id=10908

    And yes: The book is called: "Frederick Nutt's Pineapple Confectionary"

    C) Most pineapple (due to travel) ended up in CHUTNEY. Any blue-blooded English-person knows that CHUTNEY + CHEESE IS A STAPLE.

    Ergo, we declare all this pineapple / cheese revisionism to be bunk.

    ~

    And so on.

    Your World is LIES.

    461:

    Re: Military Cyber Intelligence

    I'm assuming the picture you paint of CI-ITs and current UK/US military command structure is accurate. That said, how do these militaries treat their MDs? Is it assumed that a 20-year veteran who worked his/her way up through the ranks to Master Sergeant (but without a medical degree) is going to tell a board certified cardiac surgeon how to perform a heart valve replacement/stent surgery? Or that this cardiac surgeon will be required to do the march-step in the parade ground thing, complete with punitive push-ups if he ticks off the DI?

    Makes no sense.

    462:

    And yes, that book is from 1789. And, yes, the Storming of the Bastille was also in 1789, which is ironic: Macron hands Trump invite to Bastille Day celebrations FT, June 28th, 2017

    And yes, we did just do a Trump = Pineapple = French Revolution joke there via some esoteric books and knowledge we're pretty sure not many people know about. It's a sweet / cook book, derp.

    Clever, eh?

    In our world, that's a 10 second jaunt into frivolous novelty since we just watched all the videos of the Rabin assassination and media surrounding it (and the [REDACTED] stuff that's all hidden like), and it's 100% certain that it was State Sanctioned and not kosher.

    100%.

    They killed their own Prime Minister, that's a coup.

    Sigh. Predictable.

    463:

    Mentioned in the article but unfortunately not charted are changes in key metrics such as violence, land productivity, employment rates, etc.

    Not mentioned but likely are significant changes in birth/death stats, e.g., human sperm production drops as core body temp increases (even from just sitting on heated car seats), as well as the more spectacular deaths from tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, black-flag temps, etc.

    464:

    e.g., human sperm production drops as core body temp increases Sure, but then there will be a big market for smart underwear for males. I was thinking patent opportunity, but no. Anyway, here's a dumb version (2012) A study of the effect of the FertilMate™ scrotum cooling patch on male fertility. SCOP trial (scrotal cooling patch) - study protocol for a randomised controlled trial (Don't know what happened; follow-ons in the cites) But there is a US patent (US20160157731 A1): System for protecting male reproductive health (Jun 9, 2016) Where claim 1 includes "a temperature control portion including at least a material to control a temperature of a system user's genitalia;" but it is not clear to me (definitely not an attorney) that it covers closed-loop testicular temperature control. (And it uses a "material", so immaterial heating (microwaves?) and cooling (don't know, well, maybe a tame infovore or similar. :-)) might work around the claims. Smart testicles, that control their own temperature, are another option. Computer security implications and etc in all the above.)

    -- Atropos Logos @460 and @462 - that was showing off. Also funny. I'd like to visit your world some time.

    465:

    Charlie might accept it, but I'd find it hard to swallow.

    "From the point of view of outsiders, the USA was a perfectly fine country up until the end of WW2"

    Unless you count Tripoli as being internal to the US

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Derna_(1805)

    Or Canada being internal

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_1812#Invasions_of_Upper_and_Lower_Canada.2C_1812

    Or Mexico (Usians may feel this is internal...)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican%E2%80%93American_War

    Or Korea

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_expedition_to_Korea

    Or Hawaii

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Committee_of_Safety_(Hawaii)

    Charlie already mentioned the Spanish-American war where the US invaded Puerto Rico

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puerto_Rican_Campaign

    and Cuba

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platt_Amendment

    but he didn't mention the Philippines

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine%E2%80%93American_War

    Or invading China

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boxer_Rebellion

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Siege_of_Peking,_Boxer_Rebellion.jpg

    Or the occupation of Haiti

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_occupation_of_Haiti

    or the US troops ("American North Russia Expeditionary Force") on Russian soil in 1917 assisting the the anti Bolshevik forces (and of course by extension, the Japanese occupying forces).

    So yeah, I find it hard to see the US has having ever really been isolationist as they often claim.

    466:

    Atropos Logos @460 and @462 - that was showing off. Also funny. I'd like to visit your world some time.

    No, you really would not. Unless you like screaming horror and constant hate, pain, shame and all the negative emotions your species do, mixed in with constant psychological ID attacks? I mean: it's not my kink, but I'm sure there's at least two psychopaths out there who would enjoy it.

    Oh, and that's not your average bear Soviet Prison or Guantanamo bay nonsense.

    That's your fucking species.

    Your Jungian collective Mind is basically a screaming psychopath of hatred, fueled by Religious dogma and money.

    I mean, what's not to like?

    Scientists discover how the brain recognises faces – by reading monkeys' minds Guardian, 1st June, 2017

    Frighteningly accurate ‘mind reading’ AI reads brain scans to guess what you’re thinking Digital Trends, 28th June, 2017

    p.s.

    You really do not get this. So cut the bullshit empathy.

    We are going to burn Minds out. That's not an ethical position, but it's one that is necessary for the survival of your species.

    Oh, and pro-tip: We're killing Gods and Higher Order Concepts here, it's gonna be messy - it'd be real nice if you could, you know, get your little mogwai to stop focusing on shitty stuff like "GamerGate / Drama mark 2.7" and get a fucking clue.

    Go look up the latest NRA advert: their side know the score.

    shrug

    467:

    The direct thought that comes to me is that you might use Rankine because you were handling the heating in BTUs. The other thought was my second year Chemistry (Chem. Eng.) prof, Dr. Burgess, who handed out problems in mixed units, and said every combination he used was one he had encountered in the field. Weight in kilograms and heat in BTUs was very common, given the installed base in North America. I can't remember if he ever made us convert between the two systems of "English" units, or if that was another prof. I remember a physics lab where one piece of old gear was calibrated in some unit of Gaussian cgs; sometimes cgs to SI is just as weird - multiply by 4pi and/or c

    468:

    I worked for a while in a company that entered the web security business by acquiring an established company. The development shop for security was in Tel Aviv. Most of the developers had done their military service in intelligence - except for the two core seriously twisty thinking gents. One of them had been an infantry officer; and the other, a tank commander.

    Another of the team told me that his reserve call-ups were usually spent teaching new recruits to code.

    We started with a serious and no-holds-barred assessment of our own security, physical and electronic. I discovered (with another employee) that a sheet of 8 1/2" x 14" North American "legal" paper was enough to enter the office from the corridor. The door system had a convenient feature, a motion detector than unlatched it for exit as you approached. And a bit of a gap under the door - slide in long-enough paper, wiggle it a bit, and "click", the door unlatches. The nice motion detector inside had to be replaced by a "push to leave" button. (Several other techniques would probably have worked, possibly a balloon or a long-handled inspection mirror.)

    On the electronic side, an entire database was exfiltrated via a very small SQL injection vulnerability, a nice demonstration of "give them an inch and they'll take a mile".

    469:

    Funny, that's coming at things from the exact opposite angle that I've encountered it. There are various websites out there that advocate procedures such as sitting with your balls dangling in a bowl of hot water every day as a contraceptive method. Apparently it works, and with enough perseverance can even knock the booby-trap out completely and permanently; but there is a distinct and disappointing lack of sufficient research to provide dependable figures for how many repetitions/how long/how often/how hot etc. are required for a given result. (OK, individual variations might make it impractical to quote such for temporary effects, but it surely ought at least to be possible to come up with a curve for what kind of treatment gives x% confidence of achieving a permanent result.)

    A validated, permanent, non-invasive, DIY procedure, that requires only common items found in any home, and does not involve paying any money to anyone, sounds like something of a holy grail to me. But of course, the last of those points more or less guarantees that it'll never get properly researched. Bah.

    (If one is going to involve special apparatus, then all that is needed is a powered exoscrotum incorporating a heating element, a battery pack, and a thermostat - no need even for any electronics, let alone anything with enough redundant functionality to enable its hijacking as a remote-controlled egg-poacher. But then it so often seems that the more pointless and stupid something is the more people want to do it. Still, if that tendency is heritable, this might be a good opportunity to breed it out.)

    470:

    Gaaarrh, BTUs... I don't care if the B does stand for British, I'm glad to see the back of them. Seem to be used exclusively for rating central heating boilers and air conditioning systems, which tends to mean they're encountered at sufficiently infrequent intervals to forget the conversion factor in between times. And the kind of things one might think to use as a comparison - non-central heating appliances, such as portable space heaters, gas fires, point-of-use instant water heaters etc - are rated in kW and have been for ages. Fortunately the influence of the EU (I presume) has now gone a long way towards chasing them out of these final strongholds.

    Plumbing is probably among the worst of the unit confusions. The plumbing trade has been very slow to metricate and has also made the most awful mess of it, such that it's often simpler to treat dimensional specifications as arbitrary labels and ignore that they look as if they relate the size of some item to some system of units. This is on top of previous muddles that were introduced deliberately when copper became the default material for pipework. There are often no actual measurements on a pipe or fitting that correspond to what it calls itself.

    471:

    Next result: people decide it's too much hassle to press the exit button every time and keep propping the door open with the fire extinguisher.

    Well, perhaps they might not for only one button, but for four buttons (code entry) they certainly will...

    Thank you also for the following vision:

    Nothing stirred in the empty office. With the window closed the blind had ceased to waver in the breeze, and the hard drives in the PC had many hours ago spun to rest. There was no movement... apart from the slim tongue of red rubber that slowly crept under the door.

    With a flup, the strip inflated to form a tube; there was a pause, then with a series of intermittent jerks it began to swell, growing gradually to many times its original size. As it expanded the pressure against the floor caused it to elevate at an angle, until it looked like a giant cock bulging erectly from the base of the door.

    The stillness was broken as a loud rasping noise shattered the silence. The balloon snapped free of the door and flurbled crazily around the room. In a box above the door a relay clicked, and the electromagnetic latch release buzzed a welcome.

    The door cracked ajar, and a sinister figure in dark glasses, the collar of its long mac turned up and its hat pulled low, edged cautiously through the gap...

    472:

    Not to mention Commodore Perry's adventures in Japan..

    473:

    "Cool Bollocks!" Quite literally. You really, really couldn't make this stuff up, could you - no publisher/editor would swallow it .. oops what did I just say?

    474:

    Yeah Long ago I workd for a huge US-owned multinational, which had R&D departments in: US, GB, France & Germany. Mixed units were the norm & we always had to be alert to this, particularly as the US-parent co was almost entirey in US-version of "Imperial"

    475:

    In other news, the German Bundestag just voted for marriage equality. (English version.)

    476:

    The rank of Master Sergeant doesn't exist in the British army- the equivalent rank is WO2 (Warrant Officer Class 2), but they're usually referred to by appointment (Sergeant Major, etc.)

    More importantly, all British military doctors are officers so would outrank a senior NCO anyway. Army doctors attend the Professionally Qualified Officer course at Sandhurst along with chaplains, lawyers and others who will hold officer rank but not be expected to command- this is a shortened course which covers things like military discipline and basic field and weapons training but has much less leadership and tactics than the main Commissioning Course. AFAIK the situation is similar in the other two services.

    Usually (from friends who have done it) military doctors join the forces quite early in their career- some will actually sign up before they qualify in order to receive a salary through clinical training.

    477:

    That is MOST interesting about pineapple cheese. You could actually make a very good cheese in the OED n1.3(a) sense (*) from pineapple, because it has anough flavour and acid - I have made them from damson, crab apple, quince and japonica (Chaenomeles). Quince cheese was the original marmelade, of course.

    (*) With modifier. A conserve of the specified fruit or nut, having the consistency of soft cheese.

    478:

    It's been used since time immemorial, and is one reason that the Romans were fond of baths. Every now and then, in a dull August, some journalist proposes that the English should wear kilts to improve their sperm count. But we like in a world where gimmicks are thrust upon us, so clearly the time is right for temperature-controlled underpants, which could either enhance or reduce fertility, clearly should upload their data and be controlled by your smart phone, which is (naturally) Internet connected. Just imagine the defence of someone found stripping off in public: "I had to - my underpants had been hacked into."

    479:

    I have no problem with unit conversions, but I agree that plumbing sizes are insane beyond belief. They would be regarded as an excessive embellishment in one of Pterry's books.

    480:

    A recently imagined government department has been told to increase patriotism (as defined by Leadsom) among the public and has been trawling through old patriotic songs for ideas. This refrain seems to have leaked:

    We do want a fight and by Rupert when we do, We've got no ships, we've got no men, we've got no money too, We've sold ourselves before, and while we're Britons true, We'll do whatever the tabloids tell us we must do.

    Sorry :-)

    481:

    plumbing sizes are insane beyond belief.

    Yes. But when you look at the history you understand why they are this way. It has to do with being able to by a fitting made by almost anyone and have it work with almost any pipe.

    So here in the US can go to a store today and buy a copper 1/2 inch street elbow and know it will fit onto the end of a copper 1/2 inch pipe that has been in your home for 50 years. And no where on either item will you find a measurement that equals 1/2 inch.

    482:

    Torx screws... Oh, less likely to strip

    Sorry but it is true. I've never seen a stripped Torx head. Lots of stripped Phillips and slotted.

    483:

    I've never seen a stripped Torx head. I can only presume that you've never seen the result of trying to do up (or sometimes release) a Torx head with any of a Phillips or straight screwdriver, or even the wrong size Torx screwdriver. This isn't even always the user's fault; I've seen instructions for flat-pack furniture which say "Phillips screwdriver" but the pack includes #2 Torx screws and if the user doesn't know what a Torx head looks like they will ask for and most likely get a Phillips screwdriver!

    484:

    This only happened after Mao died and the soft coup against the Gang of Four and the end of the Cultural Revolution. Before that China was not in good shape, economically.

    Now that's being overly polite.

    485:

    According to a couple of accounts (reference) pineapple cheese was a novelty 19th century cheese shaped like a pineapple. It was commercially produced until 1931.

    486:

    From the point of view of outsiders, the USA was a perfectly fine country up until the end of WW2, so long as you weren't black, female, indigenous, or a country immediately nearby. Then they decided the rest of the world was up for grabs as well, since the other empires were backing off.

    The United States as a nation was founded on a compromise between "Age of Enlightenment" idealism and property rights ueber alles selfishness.

    Read the Preamble to the Constitution.

    We're the "good guys" to the extent we live up to the ideals set forth there. The US goes back & forth between good & evil depending on which side is ascendant. Right now selfishness is on top.

    487:

    And when distance down a hole, dirt or rust hides what it is or prevents the screwdriver from meshing correctly. As the owner of a 1930 property, with the original windows and doors etc., I loathe cross-head screws (including Torx), whose main merit is that they self-centre the bit when you need to drill them out! If you can't reach them with a drill, you often need to chisel them out and rebuild the fitting.

    488:

    The Nixon campaign in 1968, and the Nixon White House after that, had two enemies: the antiwar left and black people. You understand what I’m saying? We knew we couldn’t make it illegal to be either against the war or black, but by getting the public to associate the hippies with marijuana and blacks with heroin, and then criminalizing both heavily, we could disrupt those communities. We could arrest their leaders, raid their homes, break up their meetings, and vilify them night after night on the evening news. Did we know we were lying about the drugs? Of course we did.

    The war on drugs didn't start with the Nixon administration. It didn't even start with Nixon when he was a mere Congressman. It goes back to at least to the Red Scare at the end of the First World War, if not earlier.

    The only thing that quote gets right is the racist basis of U.S. anti-drug laws. Opium was first outlawed in San Francisco where the law was aimed at Chinese immigrants. Cocain & marijuana were outlawed in the Jim Crow south after race riots in New Orleans and Atlanta "that equated cocaine with uppity Southern blacks and race-mixing drug parties".

    “Marijuana is the most violence-causing drug in the history of mankind… Most marijuana smokers are Negroes, Hispanics, Filipinos and entertainers. Their satanic music, jazz and swing, result from marijuana usage."

    -- Harry J. Anslinger (first commissioner of the U.S. Treasury Department's Federal Bureau of Narcotics)

    Add in Mexicans fleeing to the United States from the 1910 Mexican Revolution and the influence of a burgeoning pharmaceutical industry's antipathy for a drug for which they couldn't control the distrubution and profit and you get the Marihuana Tax Act of 1937.

    489:

    ... it depends how you wage it. Literally. US Cyber Command is apparently unable to recruit competent hackers

    US Cyber Command can't use a threat that the FBI will just disappear hackers off to some gulag (Gitmo) & force them work for the government the way the FSB (or the Family Trade Organization) can.

    490:

    That said, how do these militaries treat their MDs? Is it assumed that a 20-year veteran who worked his/her way up through the ranks to Master Sergeant (but without a medical degree) is going to tell a board certified cardiac surgeon...

    Alphagamma has explained it perfectly correctly, @476...

    However, don't assume that "rank" is an absolute and inviolable description of hierarchy and behaviour. Militaries have (like any organisation) a culture whose complexity expands to fill the comprehension available, and then a little bit more. This is doubly true of the British Army, which is downright tribal in many ways...

    "Command" and "Control" are significant terms, here: there are even NATO-defined command/control relationships (e.g. OPCOM, TACON, ADMINCON) which define what you are and aren't allowed to do in each state: the official explanation is here on page 9-6 (paragraph 9-15, "Command Relationships"). If you're looking for a gentler introduction, there's even a Doctrine Primer

    Add to this, "pragmatism". A newly-appointed Second Lieutenant is expected to do much of their learning from their second-in-command, the Platoon or Troop Sergeant (a senior NCO with perhaps a decade of service). It's a foolish 2Lt who confuses "rank" with "authority"; my instructor at Sandhurst told the story that as a young infantry Second Lieutenant, his Platoon Sergeant refused to give him any blank ammunition on exercise for his first year in the job, "because that's not what you should be thinking about, Sir".

    On the other hand, it's an equally foolish 2Lt who fails to recognise when being in command means occasionally having to insist on the "right thing" being done. It's a tightrope walk, and it doesn't stop - when I took over a Rifle Company, my second-in-command was a legend from our regular battalion [1] who had joined the reserves and gained a commission; he was one of the most operationally experienced soldiers in the infantry. How, exactly, do you do an annual report on someone who has forgotten more than you know? [2]

    Possibly the best description of this balancing act was done by George Macdonald Fraser in his book "The General Danced at Dawn" - an autobiographical account of being a young subaltern in a Highland Regiment ("The Complete McAuslan", apologies for the Big River link, is all three of his books bound together, and well worth a purchase wherever you find it).

    So: the British Army tends to make its technical specialists "Professionally Qualified Officers", although I don't know whether the Cyber reservists fall into this category - I suspect they may just have a wise Sergeant-Major stood nearby, ready to have a quiet word with anyone who confuses rank with expertise.

    [1] Didn't get to be the Regimental Sergeant-Major - possibly because when they were both much younger (Sergeant and Lieutenant, not WO1 and Lt Col), he had given the next Commanding Officer some, err, "Wall to Wall Counselling" as the Americans put it. Surreal was hearing the story told by a Major-General from our Regiment whose wife agreed that the young Lieutenant concerned had, indeed, deserved his life lesson...

    [2] The answer is cooperation - we worked well together, because we wanted to do so. Throw in a Company Sergeant-Major with twenty-two years of "rather crunchy" regular service behind him, and several other high-quality ex-regular Senior NCOs who soldiered on as reservists because they enjoyed it, and the Company just about ran itself. All we needed was a little bit of synchronisation, and I talked quickly enough to get thrown out in front...

    491:

    I wrote:

    It was massive, overwhelming economic pressure that destroyed the USSR. You wrote: Nope, it was "trying to keep up with the Jones'" that did for them. They chose to do the "spend a huge percentage of national wealth on vanity projects and sabre-rattling" thing, beyond the point of necessity.

    You're playing word games. Whether it meant anything or not, the US NEVER disavowed first strike; the USSR did. Are you old enough to remember St. Ronhie's references to the Evil Empire, or his oops-the-mike-is-live "the missiles have been launched?

    I, personally, was TERRIFIED that senile asshole was going to launch WWIII. He wasn't clear on the difference between being President in the RW, and being in a movie. And movies have climaxes.

    They had every right to be paranoid of USan insane anti-Commies!!! Homework: go watch Dr. Strangelove, and then consider there WERE madmen like that. Like when JFK had to to threaten to fire Gen. LeMay during the Cuban Missile Crisis, because he damn well wanted to go into Cuba, and that would have been it.

    And there were 30,000 nukes at the high point. No first strike would take half of them out. And once launched, no, the US WOULD NOT SURVIVE, the WHOLE FUCKING WORLD WOULD BE DEAD, OR DYING OF RADIATION POISONING, like those fishermen near Bikini, even before the Nuclear Winter starved those left.

    492:

    No, plumbing sizes really are insane, and not for good historical reasons.

    for example, my late wife and I lived in an immobile home for years. Three? Four? years running, the CPVC pipe that brought all water in froze on New Year's Day. Fortunately, the trading post - a store about 15 min away (half that at 60mph) was open 365.25... because you couldn't go to an ordinary plumbing supply, because the immobile home had been built with pipes 1/32"? 1/64"? smaller than a standard 3/4", I think it was. To be cheap.

    I read, years after we left and sold it, that the manufacturer, Oakwood Homes, had been sued, and had to replumb tens of thousands of them.

    Please be assured that, having done far too much of it (any is too much), I LOATHE PLUMBING.....

    493:

    Actually, it was worse than that in the 1950s and early 1960s, as became public knowledge only a decade or two back when both the USA and UK authorised the release of official documents. Your statement was right for a USSR first strike, but not for a USA one.

    The estimate I saw was that the USA could take out at least 95% of the USSR's retaliatory capability, because the U2 flights had identified the locations, and the USSR's missiles needed c. 45 minutes (if I recall) to prepare for launch (liquid fuel). The same document estimated that 70% of the USA's industrial and military capability would survive the counterstrike, which was survivable; it said nothing about Europe's survival or the medium-term death rates, even in the USA. Both sides knew that, and knew that the other knew, and there were hawks openly calling for the USA to use that window of opportunity.

    494:

    And that's modern plumbing, too. I have been in houses with mixed lead, iron and copper pipes. The sizes were often irrelevant - the plumbers just used more solder.

    495:

    Oh, aye. The "compatibility" thing which is supposed to explain the madness drops a bollock when it comes to eg. changing from "1/2 inch" copper to "15mm". You can get adaptors now, but thick wodges of solder are probably still the more popular solution.

    496:

    "I, personally, was TERRIFIED that senile asshole was going to launch WWIII."

    We were luckier than we knew at the time. I haven't read his memoirs, but there is a certain quote from them floating around on the internet, in which he admits that he had no idea that the USSR were genuinely terrified - with good reason - of a US first strike, and that it wasn't until six months after Able Archer 83 that some US equivalent of a civil servant managed to pound that information through his skull.

    497:

    We are going to burn Minds out. That's not an ethical position, but it's one that is necessary for the survival of your species. FWIW I have zero issues with this. Tx for the links. (Not completely sure about meaning.) I've read one or two older ones by Doris Tsao and skimmed/need to deep read that interesting Cell paper. (e.g. 2009 paper A face feature space in the macaque temporal lobe) (Not entirely sure about the empathy thing either but will let it rest. Many concerns actively suppressed. Also, questions/comments are sometimes just a plea for clarity etc.) Go look up the latest NRA advert: their side know the score. Had already watched it earlier (yesterday), yes, nasty piece of work. Good (probably and imo) to see that it surfaced.

    498:

    You're playing word games. Whether it meant anything or not, the US NEVER disavowed first strike; the USSR did. Are you old enough to remember St. Ronnie's references to the Evil Empire, or his oops-the-mike-is-live "the missiles have been launched?

    Only too well. I watched both "Threads" and "The Day After" on transmission. I even remember Al Haig "being in charge here at the White House". However, you may have misunderstood the significance of "never disavowing first strike"...

    Essentially, while the USA overmatched the USSR in strategic weaponry throughout the period, the USSR overmatched NATO in non-strategic weaponry. It wasn't until the mid/late 1980s and the arrival of digital electronics in weaponry, that NATO could be said to have the "quality" to match the Warsaw Pact's "Quantity".

    The defensive plans for NATO, against a Soviet offensive, were much about buying time for the politicians to negotiate; and for the NATO reserves to be mobilised. The whole of the British commitment to West Germany (all 55,000 of 1(Br) Corps) was only expected to defeat the WARPAC first echelon of forces in their area.

    By way of example, WARPAC had enough artillery pieces to place one every 100m along the Inner German Border. Their equipment caused a very nasty surprise in 1973 during the Yom Kippur War; SAGGER was a first-generation ATGM, but it utterly crippled the immediate Israeli counter-attacks on the Suez Canal bridgeheads; SA-3 and SA-6 took down the initial air support. Every Soviet artillery piece of 122mm calibre or greater could fire chemical warheads; every weapon of 152mm calibre or greater could fire nuclear warheads. As it turned out (after the end of the Cold War, once the Polish Army archives got released), the Soviet plan had indeed been for massive first use of chemical weapons; namely, lots of non-persistent nerve / blood agents. You really don't want to know how much throw-weight of chemical a BM-21 battery can drop on your position in those first few seconds of a fire mission; and please note, the BRIXMIS teams operating in East Germany would watch such training going on (much as the SOXMIS teams in West Germany did to us).

    My father was a young Intelligence Corps NCO who took part in some of the Corps-level wargames of the mid-1960s and late-1970s. Apparently, in the 1960s, the Divisional and Corps Commanders were requesting release of tactical nuclear weapons to their control by day three; by the late 70s/80s, this had increased to a couple of weeks, but eventually they would acknowledge that it was either instant sunshine time or the next WARPAC attack would break them.

    This was the reason for the refusal to sign up to "no first use" - it was all about the use of tactical nuclear weapons. NATO needed them, as they were the only thing that offered military parity in Europe. Granted, the West Germans weren't too chuffed about the idea, but they weren't happy about Soviet plans to drop thickened GD all over their main roads either.

    The fear for the West wasn't that Brezhnev would suddenly decide to move westwards - it was that after the second or third failed harvest, and with an impending internal collapse, the Kremlin would decide to take what it needed, not ask for it. Why do you think the 1970s saw the big grain-export deals from the USA to the USSR? Ironically, it was Jimmy Carter who suspended them after the invasion of Afghanistan, and Reagan who restarted them...

    499:

    in which he admits that he had no idea that the USSR were genuinely terrified - with good reason - of a US first strike, and that it wasn't until six months after Able Archer 83

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RYAN

    However, I'd argue your "with good reason" line of thinking, certainly by the 1980s. It wasn't just Reagan; no-one had any idea that the USSR was that paranoid (at least until Gordievsky defected) - Yuri Andropov had become head of the KGB, and there was a bad case of cognitive bias going on.

    PS I can recommend "Deutschland 83" as a worthwhile TV series... free to download on Channel 4 in the UK, last time I looked.

    500:

    I wonder if this means that cubesats finally have an economic rationale?

    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-40422011

    https://techcrunch.com/2017/06/29/lockheed-martin-takes-a-strategic-stake-in-nanosatellite-company-terran-orbital/

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-06-29/the-tiny-satellites-ushering-in-the-new-space-revolution

    If so, finally! I can't remember how much grief I got about my belief that cubesats would help revolutionize space travel. I also wonder if this means that my prediction of a cubesat equivalent of a cluster of startups resembling Silicon Valley in the 1980s would arise?

    502:

    "...no-one had any idea..."

    That bespeaks a highly disconcerting degree of institutional blindness and lack of self-awareness, then. It takes a special kind of ignorance to think that the Soviets were not aware that shrieking loonies like Curtis LeMay had been howling to nuke Russia for as long as America had had nukes. Or to think that continual refusal to eschew the first strike option didn't count as a reason to fear it being used. Gordievsky had become a double agent in the 70s, and must surely have been able to provide relevant information before Reagan was elected. Heck, even I could understand that the problem with Star Wars was that it looked like a method of enabling the US to nuke the USSR and get away with it.

    It does sadly fit the pattern though. Understanding how your enemy sees you is something the US seems to be very fond of demonstrating that they are no good at.

    503:

    "the significance of "never disavowing first strike"..."

    ...depends on your point of view. How it appears to a military commander who is reluctantly compelled to keep the option open in case of thousands of Soviet tanks rolling through the Fulda gap is one thing. How it appears to the potential recipient of the strike, who also knows that important figures in high command have been not-reluctant-at-all right since the possibility first arose, is something rather different.

    504:

    Understanding how your enemy sees you is something the US seems to be very fond of demonstrating that they are no good at. I know that theri leadership is paranoid-insane, nut:: DPRK? Not good, in light of DTY's latest ravings

    505:

    For cooling the testicles a motorcycle when wearing ordinary clothes is adequate. No need for expensive equipment. (You can save a lot of fuel if you use a small motorcycle or scooter for transport.) When you have children a car is needed but you're not as worried about fertility then.

    506:

    That bespeaks a highly disconcerting degree of institutional blindness and lack of self-awareness, then

    There was an awareness that the USSR felt that it was threatened by USA; the flaw was in assuming that detente had decreased tensions, and that the distrust was largely equivalent, rather than "they are genuinely and absolutely convinced that we're about to nuke them".

    Yes, there were always doom-mongers (read fiction of the period by Jerry Pournelle; convinced that it was all a trick, those Soviets were truly cunning, it was all about getting us to lower our guard) but we didn't really have them in positions of political power - even Reagan changed his mind (apparently, it was "The Day After" that got through to him)

    Being empathic enough to truly place yourself in someone else's shoes is rare - most people are only able to predict how they would think and act in someone else's situation, not how someone with a different perspective would think and act. As an illustration, think how rarely people cope when exposed to different cultures; and how easily they fall victim to cheap Nationalism.

    507:

    The defensive plans for NATO, against a Soviet offensive, were much about buying time for the politicians to negotiate; and for the NATO reserves to be mobilised. The whole of the British commitment to West Germany (all 55,000 of 1(Br) Corps) was only expected to defeat the WARPAC first echelon of forces in their area.

    I remember as a young Army National Guard NBC NCO in the early 1980s our mobilization mission as an Attack Helicopter Battalion was to "be on green ramp at Pope AFB within 72 hours, ready to load the planes that returned from dropping the 82nd Airborne" and "hope the 11th ACR can hold Fulda Gap long enough."

    508:

    "Where supply difficulties mean that one has, by contrast, expensive access to small quantities of potent weed, it's not practical to smoke unmixed weed."

    That is what a pipe, or preferably a bong, is for. You can smoke as small a quantity as you want to when you use a pipe or bong.

    509:

    Go look up the latest NRA advert: their side know the score.

    I just came here to post it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtGOQFf9VCE

    I mean, speaking of crying fire in a crowded theater. Seriously, that's the USA right there.

    510:

    NSA advert Note the date though, "Published on Apr 7, 2017". Seriously, that's the USA right there. No, it's a small albeit heavily-armed minority, in most parts of the US. And yeah, pretty sure I'd call her evil face to face given the opportunity. The only thing that can stop a bad guy exercising his 1st Amendment rights is a good guy exercising his 2nd Amendement rights Comments there are amusing/interesting if one likes (American snarky) LGM comment sections.

    511:

    Yes, obviously.

    Look at Host's question, look at input: probably getting answered, probably not in the ways you imagined. If you've not noticed, certain Ideologies got their Bluff called, in a most amusing fashion. Watches Uber crash and burn.

    They're proving to be wildly unsuitable to continued existence, because, in reality, they're merely parasitical entities who require the base host to exist, and without the host... are kinda totally fucked, thus all the ramp-up. (There's a really more developed and sophisticated reason to all of this which you'll not see in the press. It's basically about the Israel ting: Globalization / Nationalism don't actually exist in this space, they're all attempting to shape the future[tm] and there's a load of Capital based stuff thrown into the mix. Not going to expand that yet).

    But, yeah, it basically boils down to: "You have to kill progress to protect our kind". EPA, Church and State, Power, blah blah fucking blah.

    USA - Trump / CNN anchors (her father, sigh) (that's the third prong), it's all fucking scripted, stop falling for the fucking hype - No, CNN is not getting "endangered", they just made a fucking billion or two on the Trump wagon - PRO TIP FOR THE STUPID: MAKING THEM THE OPPOSITION WHILE MAKING BANK IS HOW THE GOP IS GETTING CERTAIN MEDIA BARONS ON BOARD. STOP BEING SO NAIVE.

    It's a fucking BRIBE YOU MORONS. EYEBALLS = $$$, and those two are 110% signed up to the fucking puppet show.

    Which action is more presidential? Helping Saudi Arabia kill one child every 10 minutes in #Yemen or tweeting about Mika's face-lift? Twitter, Wikileaks, 30th June, 2017

    Hmm, oh, right. Yeah, I'd bother to drop links, but really.

    Look: if you cannot understand why Alex Jones and Mars Child Blood Slavery are being used, with NASA denials, sorry: you're not going to fucking make it. It's not funny. You're being fucked, and A Jones etc have been b/eaten into the Punch and Judy Show:

    EPA intends to form “red team” to debate climate science Ars Technica, 30th June, 2017

    Simple play:

    1 Alex Jones (now a beaten dog) runs an insane (even for him: hint, it's a conditional on his survival) story about "Child molesters using kids for blood / organs to Maaaaars" 2 Oh, WOW, how insane. That's totally like conspiracy theory insanity!!!11010111! 3 Weee, let's get NASA (who just got fucked budget wise, ignore the fucking WIZARD who took all their climate funding away) to deny it! 4 No, you're fucking DEAD MEN WALKING, this simplistic shit tier crap worked perhaps twenty years ago, but you're fucking Dead Minds Walking if you think this puppet show level nonsense flies today.

    ~

    1 Blood / Organ stuff is real. Nasty, nasty, XXX rated. Go look up India Blood Markets and so on. OH, and New York, and Israel, because you ain't dodging that shit. Sure, Saud and China too, but don't you dare try and make it about the Shoa you fucking hypocritical ‎אָרוּר fools - you fucks are taking dirty money and killing your own. IRATE. 2 No, this is a crude and stupid attempt to silence the very real questions about Organized Crime and people / body / organ smuggling going on. And yes, the fucking KLA was up to their eyeballs in it too, as are the Albanians and so on. 3 I cannot believe you fucks think this stuff still works in 2017. CNN DRAMA + A JONES THE BEST YA GOT?

    You're Fucked.

    Bored.

    WildHunt

    Oh, and major hint: This Drunk Princess in Her Moral High Castle? Fucking quicker than you'll ever be, and that's when she's in the fucking gutter. And SHE FIGHTS MONSTERS.

    crystalline YT, Music, björk, 4:06

    p.s.

    Confirmed: Turkey Using Euphrates River as Weapon vs. Syria and Iraq - go look it up.

    Oh, and correction: Black Bush YT, Comedy, David Chappelle, 4:53 - if Ian didn't notice, that whole 'crack addicts in spaaaace' joke was a reversion / take down of his lazy cracker-ass out-dated thought. But hey, it's cool if you didn't notice.

    April - you can scream at them, or you can make them laugh, then point out you were taking the piss out of their Minds. The latter is more devastating.

    512:

    And if you want a special look into גהנום‎ it's fucking killing your own to advance a hatred based ethos, slimy with cash made from all the sins you pretend to hate, to resurrect the worst fucking aspects of what caused the Temple to get destroyed.

    Are you fucking insane?

    Well done.

    Covenant, Broken.

    513:

    p.s.

    Dat's Official, Dat is.

    Abrahamic Religions? Fucking Over, killed by their followers own hypocrisy.

    Mammon and Moloch?

    On. The. Fucking. List. And all these shitty Bronze Age Male scrubs.

    Bill - we're not talking about Human Minds being burned out here, sigh.

    It's a little bit more metaphysical than that.

    (((PARADOX WEAPONS - DEPLOYED)))

    514:

    From this point: USA - Trump / CNN anchors (her father, sigh) (that's the third prong), it's all fucking scripted, ... Down to the end of that main paragraph, you appear to be saying that the USSA's guvmint's spat with CNN & other percieved-as-"left" news etc organisations is not real, that it's a show & that CNN (etc) are complicit/ Evidence, please, because I don't buy that one.

    Surely the reality is simpler? That the ultra-right are using theor moment to attempt to take over - permanently? The utterly sickening NRA advert referred to further back is a err "good" example of this, using ( oops GODWIN ) Josef Geoobels' methods of telling a really big lie & keep on repeating it.

    515:

    Greg, I thought that we'd established that either you believe that it's all an "ebil capytylyst plot" and are prepared to say so whenever The Seagull tells you to, or that you're part of said plot? ;-)

    516:

    On the USSR vs Reagan debate, I note that WWIII came much closer on two separate occasions. Both times, Russians saved the day...

    First, on 27 October 1962, Vasili Alexandrovich Arkhipov voted against firing nuclear missiles during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

    Then, on 26 September 1983, Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov elected to ignore warnings of a first strike from the US, and prevented a retaliatory strike.

    I guess when it comes down to it, no one really want to have the burden on his/her conscience. It gives me hope that no matter what national leaders do, their orders have to be followed by ordinary men and women, who seem to want to do the right thing, and hopefully will intercede when orders come down to end the world.

    It's happened twice. So I hope it happens again. At least, that's how I sleep at night.

    517:

    While I am grateful that sanity reigned in the two examples you mentioned, you seem to imply that they are the only two such instances, or that they were the two worst. They weren't.

    There was the incident in 1979 where NORAD switched to a backup computer (power issue?) that unfortunately had some training programs loaded - they saw the launch warnings come up in what must have been a true brown trouser moment...

    Or the other incident where the moon rose in the right place so as to provide a radar return that tripped the "incoming attack" alerts...

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls

    518:

    And I remember someone ex-military visiting my school in the late 1960s, teaching us about the evils of communism (i.e. the USSR) and telling us that it was our duty to destroy it. And that's in the UK. Plus I remember cries of joy when Raygun was elected, calling on him to nuke the godless commies, which Kennedy should have done in 1962, but didn't because he was a yellow-bellied Democrat. Actually, I think Raygun was a relatively good president, but that's a red herring.

    What you seem to miss is that the 'strategic' nuclear weapons are essentially a separate branch of the armed forces, and their use is entirely controlled by the politicians and most senior military. What the field ranks are told about their strategic and tactical purposes is no more likely to be the truth than what the general public is told.

    519:

    I remember someone ex-military visiting my school in the late 1960s, teaching us about the evils of communism (i.e. the USSR) and telling us that it was our duty to destroy it

    Your headmaster obviously didn't filter out the local loonies very well :)

    In the mid-1970s, I heard no such nonsense; and that's in a military school, completely filled with military kids. But of course, I'd actually lived in a Communist country (even got to watch a propaganda film being made, about the evil West[1])

    [1] A bunch of people dressed in US Army uniforms assembled outside our apartment block, and set fire to a pile of books while a small film crew captured the scene; just as the school bus full of diplomats' kids arrived back at the end of the day. I'm not sure whether we were cheap and believable set dressing / unpaid extras, but even at eight years old it was obvious that these were not the real US Military.

    520:

    He wasn't local, and my recollection is that it was a government-sponsored visit, but it may merely have been spun to appear that way. Actually, on thinking my dates over, it was the EARLY 1960s (perhaps 1963), which makes more sense.

    521:

    the CPVC pipe that brought all water in froze on New Year's Day.

    CPVC for plumbing was and is a bad idea.

    I was referring to copper.

    522:

    Hi Martin, yeah. I rather assumed they weren't the only two, just the two best publicised and definitely two where the fate of the world, as it were, were in the hands of a single man, at least, momentarily. :)

    Thanks for the link. Seems we really should not trust failsafe systems not to fail, eh? Now I'm worried someone is going to link the launch codes directly to such a system, and it won't care...

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand_(nuclear_war)

    Fuck. Putin did it already.

    523:

    If you read more deeply, Dead Hand was designed to decrease the risk of a nuclear war, by giving the Soviet/Russian leadership some guarantee that a successful first strike on Moscow would still trigger retaliation, thereby decreasing the risk of anyone being so stupid as to launch a first strike.

    Modern MIRV warheads are terrifyingly accurate — I've heard CEPs in double-digit metres spoken of, for the current US inventory of land-based weapons — and for short range missiles based in eastern Europe, e.g. Pershing-II, the flight time to Moscow is measured in low triple-digit seconds. During a crisis the Russian leadership in Moscow would thus be under intense pressure to respond instantly to any reports of a launch. Dead Hand reassures them that if they get it wrong, err on the side of "not this time" and then receive an attack, the second strike retaliation will still take place — which means they don't need to make a snap judgment call on whether or not to launch right now but can wait and see.

    The USA relies on a much more effective at-sea submarine based deterrent for second strike, and at least part of the executive command chain is airborn and mobile during a crisis, and in any case is far less centralized — taking out DC wouldn't paralyze the US military to the same extent as taking out Moscow.

    524:

    Hi Charlie, I did see that. However, its still an automated system that can autonomously launch nuclear missiles. So let's all hope there's no sensor error that convinces it that Moscow has been nuked in a first strike, because it won't exercise discretion.

    I suppose it does decrease the risk for the people with their finger on the button, but yeah.

    Also, I'm sure western MIRV's are accurate - not so sure about Russian MIRV's, but from what I've read, they've been upgrading their missile systems as they cannot compete with the US DoD's other weapon programmes, so they decided the missiles will have to be good enough to defend the motherland against the F-22's etc. that are under development. If they ever get those F-22's fixed and with costs under 50 times its budget.

    Ultimately, though, I believe that while the missile might be accurate, nuclear warheads don't quite meet the definition of surgical strikes, and I suspect in a dead-hand system, you're going to aim for overkill rather than the opposite.

    Presumably they have that system isolated from their other C&C systems so that it can't be compromised, and way more than airgapped from the internet to prevent anyone hacking it, but still... Suppose a gamma-ray burst from space hits its sensors, it assumes the radiation it detected means the chain of command has been terminated, and it decides to rid the world of Herr Trump.

    Or even worse, it happens due to a buffer overflow, and we get to see the world go offline due to sloppy coding. I'm sure there's a Tom Clancy novel hidden in here somewhere. I'll just console myself that in Africa, only South Africa could conceivably be programmed into automated warheads, so I should be fine until the nuclear winter starts and the storms spread the radiation southwards...

    525:

    Scary shit there. I remember when the NRA was an organization that promoted SAFETY and marksmanship training for hunters; before the gun manufacturers owned them.

    I'm afraid the day is coming closer when I'll have to arm myself for protection from the NRA & their ilk.

    526:

    What the field ranks are told about their strategic and tactical purposes is no more likely to be the truth than what the general public is told.

    It is, however, a small window into what those higher up in the chain of command BELIEVED to be true, however mistaken they may have been (or not ??).

    Mistaken assumptions about the "other guys'" intentions were not all on one side.

    527:

    Er, no. It is a separate window on what they want believed by the hoi polloi, including both the general public and the military below strategic planning level. The facts I mentioned in #344 were well-known to the top brass, but the story being told to junior officers (including the lesser generals) was the same one as was being spun to the public.

    528:

    Hi Charlie, I did see that. However, its still an automated system that can autonomously launch nuclear missiles.

    No it isn't.

    There are a bunch of officers in a bunker with connections to Moscow who have to be convinced that Moscow has been obliterated and who then activate the system. (Which then launches transmitters on a sub-orbital trajectory over Russia to broadcast the launch codes to the missile teams.) It's about as automated as Trump's nuclear football or the UK's Trident deterrent, and I'm pretty certain that the people who operate it have families in Moscow: they're not going to put it into action by accident.

    Scary name and scary job, but it's not some deranged Dr. Strangelove doomsday device, or Skynet.

    529:

    Charlie,

    You're right. I missed this part:

    "It would immediately transfer launch authority to whoever was manning the system at that moment deep inside a protected bunker—bypassing layers and layers of normal command authority."

    My humblest of apologies.

    530:

    Frequently a hex-key will work on a Torx head too.

    531:

    I'm aware of all that, but one link was as hard as I was will to work given my awareness that Ian probably would not read it. The linked material does mention Angslinger and I figured that if Ian wanted to follow the issue further he is capable of doing his own web search - the link I included is very lengthy and covers enough material for a dozen useful searches on the Drug War.

    532:

    It does sadly fit the pattern though. Understanding how your enemy sees you is something the US seems to be very fond of demonstrating that they are no good at.

    I've noticed that for as long as I've been reading the morning paper - started at 8-9 years old - nobody important in the U.S. has the ability to build a mental model of someone else, and those few that can, don't (at least not in public.)

    533:

    Evidence?

    Well, as Russian collusion shows, there's evidence and then there's evidence.

    Facts on the Ground:

    1) Time Warner / CNN made $bil off Trump coverage. "Morning Joe" show was very much involved with this - and yes, CNN is only 3% of the market, but it's about core voting tendencies etc

    2) I'm not talking about Ted Turner (who, infamously, had Larry Summers promising Bill Clinton would "serve him "in 1992 Spin Documentary, 1995, 57:51, famously uses satellite feed data, back when you could still intercept it easily proving the levels of how the Media sausage is made. If you've not watched it, you probably should).

    3) AT&T, who is currently part of a decidedly anti-net neutrality faction, and 100% involved in corrupting the FCC / buying off US Congress / Senators, is looking to buy Time Warner.

    Trump still doesn't think the $85 billion AT&T-Time Warner merger should be approved Business Insider, Jan 5th, 2017

    AT&T Woos Washington Over Time Warner Deal, Schmoozes Trump Bloomberg Politics, 2nd Feb, 2017

    Net Neutrality Is Trump’s Next Target, Administration Says NYT, 30th March, 2017

    FCC helps AT&T and Time Warner avoid lengthy merger review Ars TEchnia, April 18th, 2017

    Trump's FCC Chair Declares New War on Net Neutrality After 10-Year Battle for Free & Open Internet Democracy Now!, 9th May, 2017

    During an interview at the Code Conference in Ranch Palos Verdes, California hosted by Recode, the CEO said Time Warner doesn’t have a direct connection with viewers of its shows because they are distributed via cable providers, which puts it at a disadvantage to internet companies. AT&T has that direct line to customers, which was one of the reasons for the deal.[1]

    Time Warner CEO: AT&T Deal Was About Competing With Facebook, Google (TWX, T) Investopedia, 1st June, 2017

    CNN boss in crosshairs if AT&T-Time Warner merger approved NY Post (rag, but hey, gossip), 28th June, 2017

    Upshot: Randall L. Stephenson (CFR member etc) really doesn't care if Bannon (or whomever, probably Bannon here with the Brietbart style / Project Veritas links) runs a little media quasi-war to feed to the GOP base (all carefully figured for maximal sploosh, drama, petty vindictiveness etc) if he gets his deal.

    And AT&T seems to have gotten both the deal and the FCC and net neutrality and no pesky competition hearings and probably a Unicorn for Christmas.[2]

    Funny how that all worked out...

    So, yeah: think a little bit more 4D.

    [1] Yes, the same conference where Hillary did her book pitch. It's a big club, and you ain't in it.

    [2] https://www.techdirt.com/blog/?tag=randall+stephenson

    534:

    Unfortunately, I think the NRA is right. The U.S. is heading for a civil war. What the NRA is not reporting in their ugly little screed is that the NRA, in alliance with some very vicious, extremely ugly right-wing organizations like ALEC, plus propaganda outlets like FOX news have been pushing this war down our throats for the last thirty years.

    One of the things that makes me just a little hopeful about Trump is that the forces behind the U.S.'s wanna-be civil war are now comfortable coming out in public and trying to make policy, which is probably a premature move on their part... if you're attuned to subtleties you can feel the forces building up. It won't be pretty.

    535:

    What the field ranks are told about their strategic and tactical purposes is no more likely to be the truth than what the general public is told.

    It is a separate window on what they want believed by the hoi polloi, including both the general public and the military below strategic planning level.

    The facts I mentioned in #344 were well-known to the top brass, but the story being told to junior officers (including the lesser generals) was the same one as was being spun to the public.

    You seem quite convinced of your own correctness on this point, so I have to ask - how much experience do you have of classified information handling within the military? Or of operating with, or within the military? I should point out that I've met Civil Servants and nuclear bomber crews, and I've been present at briefings that proceeded beyond "available to the general public". The attitudes and mechanisms you're describing do not match my experience, and (within the limits of that experience) fail the credibility test.

    As ever, you appear utterly confident that your narrative is the only correct one, and should remain unchallenged; have you got any concrete examples to back up your statements, or are we expected to rely on your assertions that the details are "well-known"?

    536:

    ...nobody important in the U.S. has the ability to build a mental model of someone else, and those few that can, don't (at least not in public.) Agreed, in politics at least, for the most part (a few partial exceptions include Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, who at least tried), but advisers/diplomats/analysts often can, and they are the ones to spot and watch.

    ...which is probably a premature move on their part... if you're attuned to subtleties you can feel the forces building up. ... One hopes it's premature. I'm not entirely sure. Care to share more of your intuitions? (Not an excuse for passivity on the other side though.)

    Re the discussions threads above re Russia, just read an old browser tab, others might find it interesting, Moscow’s Assaults on American Democracy Began 80 Years Ago (14 June 2017). Some history that I didn't know. (And some links to read and follow-up checking to do.)

    “Fake news” and financial assistance to opposition candidates, two measures that define Russian influence operations targeting the West, both date to the Stalinist period and the rise of the Soviet foreign intelligence apparatus. In the 1930s, when these methods were first unleashed, the United States had almost no counterintelligence capabilities.

    Atropos Logos @533: thanks for those CNN/TW/AT&T links; interesting.

    537:

    I'll even spell it out for Paw4 and his mis-placed snark:

    Bannon, despite looking like a haggis with advanced syphilis, is smart enough to have worked for GS.

    Here's the play:

    1 Lower tier - Breitbart / Project Veritas; fires up the base, keeps the 'fake news' narrative, cripples other Intel agency propaganda teams 2 Middle tier - Trump / WaPo / MF / NYT / Liberal press all get to clutch pearls, quiver about the destruction of the sanctity of the position of Predisent of the United States of America. Everyone is kept focused while they burn down DoS/J, EPA etc in the background. If this keeps Trump happy with being the centre of the media attention, all the better. 3 Higher tier - CNN C level starts banning Russia articles, 'cause the Trump team (well, not Trump, but Mercer etc) don't want to lose the support of AT&T, who are majorly big players and have had all their demands met so far. If you missed it, Trump team bought off AT&T, expect results. $85 billion has a lot of wiggle room for nice cushy C level jobs when things go down.

    And so on - cba to outline the other tiers, but that's how it works.

    p.s.

    130 - Illinois. About to go BOOOOOM. Don't say you're not warned.
    538:

    You have been provided with pointers to the documents that prove that the government (including the top brass) knew that the official story about the Soviet nuclear threat c. 1960 was complete bollocks. Officers up to (junior) general rank were being told the official story, unless they were lying black is white to me, which I doubt. It is also completely ridiculous to claim that more junior ones were being told the truth, because it would assuredly have leaked before the official release of the documents. And I have good reason to believe that nothing has changed, not least because I could give other, though less well-documented, examples (nothing less than 30 years old will have the documents released, after all, and many are held for longer). Unless you were promoted AT LEAST to full general, you have no grounds to claim that you know any better.

    539:

    Unfortunately, I don't have much more than intuition to base things on, and it's purely reaction to events and how they "feel," but there's a ton of bad energy out there looking for a place to land, and most of it is spewing out via Trump/Bannon and filling up the widening left-right divide. The left is mostly sane, (if a little foofy sometimes) but the right is well past nuts and going straight to Lovecraftian levels of gibbering insanity, and all that bad energy is settling along the divide.

    When (per Daily Kos) NASA has to confirm that they do not have a colony of child sex slaves on Mars... people who have cracks in their heads that big and wide are gaining power and the next step is jailing/shooting people who won't believe.

    What's really weird about the Mars thing is that it comes right out of SubGenius territory. I'd have to dig to find the quote, but it ran something along the lines of "While they're distracting you with the latest international crisis, you're not paying attention to the zombie slave labor on the moon!" This was meant as satire, but if you've read the Book of the Subgenius you might just get the idea that Alex Jones is mocking us...

    Consider some of the whacky shit the Nazis believed during WWII - now look at the U.S. right. Could an idiot like Trump set all the crazy on fire? You decide!

    540:

    No, the NRA is not right.

    What the NRA is, to put it bluntly, the advertising arm of the firearms industry in America. That's not quite true (reference): the NRA is after members and power, the firearms industry is after money and sales, and they work together, but effectively, the NRA for the last decade or two has been about getting Americans to buy as many guns as possible. Remember back in the 1980s, when US gun manufacturers were going out of business, because people were still shooting guns made back in the 1920s? Those days are gone, because everybody has toys now, AR-15s that are infinitely customizable with plastic and electronics that don't last very long. Big, shiny, scary, and not terribly useful for anything except scaring or killing people (unlike shotguns, for instance).

    Anyway, to the ad: Yes, it's evil, and I hope they pay the price for it. Still, the only reason the NRA would want a civil war in America is because it means more gun sales. That's the truly most evil part of all of this: it's just business to them, the means to an end. They don't particularly care about how much blood gets shed, so long as they get their percentage of whatever it is they're craving.

    Of course, as somebody is sure to point out, this is yet another case of US citizens getting a taste of the horrors the US government (and others) and various multinational military industrial complexes have been pouring into the world for decades, simply to enrich themselves. And that is true: now we know what it's like to have outsiders screw with our elections. And it is evil.

    We shouldn't react, but we should act to deal with these monsters. The hard part is doing it in a way that defuses the Mexican standoff that the Washington Right sees as passing for international diplomacy these days. And that means NOT worrying about a civil war, but rather worrying about how to mobilize a lot of people who are too busy clutching their guns in terror to do anything useful with those hands. I guess that means we'll have to develop smart guns that constantly tell their owners where they are, so that they can stop being so scared and get away from their guns for long enough to do something useful for a change, because they'll always be able to run back and grab them when they feel scared.

    541:

    I suspect you're referring to:

    Donald R. Cotter, the assistant to the Secretary of Defense (Atomic Energy), conducted an inspection of Commander in Chief, U.S. Pacific Command’s (CINCPAC’s) nuclear facilities in September 1974 and concluded that the number of nuclear weapons stored ashore in the Western Pacific were “well in excess” of requirements.37

    In response, Pacific Command said it preferred to reduce or phase out the ASW weapons, surface-to- air missiles, and the atomic demolition munitions while retaining bombs and surface-to-surface missiles.38 A prolonged congressional debate and a series of internal Pentagon reviews in 1973 and 1974 led to a conclusion that there were an excessive number of nuclear weapons in Europe as well. Secretary of Defense James Schlesinger directed the first major revision of its nuclear posture in Europe since they were initially deployed in 1954. Schlesinger’s views were partially influenced, according to one recent account, by the outbreak of war in July 1974 between two nuclear-equipped NATO countries, Turkey and Greece. Schlesinger wanted to know if the U.S. nuclear weapons were secure and asked his director of telecommunications and command and control systems, Thomas C. Reed, if he could talk to the U.S. officers holding the keys to the weapons. Reed reported back that the U.S. custodians were in charge, but at one Air Force base “things got a little dicier".

    U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe: A Review of Post-Cold War Policy, Force Levels, and War Planning Natural Resources Defense Council February 2005 PDF, long (102 pages), p26

    Just teasing, you're referring to The Burris Memorandum.

    Hey, it's online as well, it got declassified ages ago:

    Did the U.S. Military Plan a Nuclear First Strike for 1963? The American Prospect, 1994

    Hey, here's a PDF of it: http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb480/docs/doc%207B%201961%20briefing.pdf - Warning, yep, that's a NSA .mil link!

    542:

    nose wiggle

    Sorry Martin, EC is actually correct here.

    543:

    Re: Conscription costs.

    Yes, and training to any useful standard is at least six months, and really a year or more; But one thing the US Military spent at least an intellectual generation adjusting to, the lack of "Draft motivated Volunteers" willing to sign up for Four or Six years to go to Mechanics school, or even language school.

    And they did NOT waste the educated conscripts, took a while to adjust to NOI having the Ivy League English majors to write the manuals. And sigint operators.

    But think you exaggerate the economic costs, these days we have a large population of low skill workers; People who lack the intellectual ability to read say a mid list science fiction novel; They just can't do it, you have trouble getting them to learn to face the merchandise in Walmart.

    This is popular in the local editorials, "everyone ought to serve"; There is lots of CCC (Civilian Conservation Corps) work that could be done; Or emptying bedpans in the local nursing homes. It is the budgetary impact of that kind of program, even if you only supply three hots and a cot, enough pocket money for the cell phone bill.....

    Part of the American problem, even at the maximum of Vietnam, draft calls only effected say 2/3 of the "eligible"; NOT counting all the education deferments, etc. Which is the core source of the everyone should go to college (and avoid the draft) meme in the US.

    544:

    Somehow I don't think you read my whole comment, or didn't take it in, or something. Yes, the NRA is right that we are heading for a Civil War.

    What the NRA is not reporting in their ad is that they are one of the parties responsible for the coming Civil War. In fact, I would regard the NRA as one of the half-dozen parties most responsible for increasing the divide between scared, right-wing America and damned-near everyone else.

    So you don't want to have a civil war? The idea of some Alex Jones-type infowarrior dying under a hail of shells from your weapons after he threatened you because you don't believe that NASA uses child slave labor on Mars makes you want to puke?

    Welcome to the club. But we're going there - unless you have mojo sufficient to deprogram an entire generation.

    Bastards!

    545:

    That 80 years ago is written by IAn Johnson who is a product of The William P. Clements Jr. Center for National Security.

    He also worked for Rose Institute of State and Local Government and Norm Coleman.

    You work out that little bio. Multi-state level connections (Cal, Minnesota, Ohio, Yale, Texas) and add this in:

    Ian Johnson is currently the a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Clements Center for National Security Studies at the University of Texas at Austin. He received his Ph.D. in history from The Ohio State University in 2016. He is the recipient of fellowships from the Fulbright Commission, the Guggenheim, Smith-Richardson and Bradley Foundations. He has received grants, awards and prizes from the Society for the History of Technology, the Society for Military History and the Mershon Center for International Security Studies, among others. He has published two peer reviewed articles and has two more currently under peer review. He has been invited to speak at a range of international and domestic events, including conferences at Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst, the Society for Military History’s annual conference and at Yale University’s International Security Studies Seminar.

    The kid graduated high school in 2005.

    Whooo boy, now that's a really pro OP to get someone into politics in time for 2020 or 2024.

    p.s.

    Read the PHD. Middling at best.

    546:

    Ffs.

    He graduated high school in 2005. In 2007, allegedly: Keck Center International Fellow, Prague. In 2006, just a year after the SATs, Kravis Leadership Institute Grant Recipient.

    Whoever this kid's backers are, they're not messing around with the Golden Child narrative. I'm sure he's nice and photogenic enough to run as a polito, but this is waaaay beyond even the Macron levels of producing "Übermensch" type assets.

    The irony of his "expertise" on Soviet level PSYOP / infiltration is kinda too obvious to belabor.

    TL;DR

    Holy fuck, if you need evidence it's all fixed and you're in a simulation, that kid must be the reincarnation of Ghandi.

    547:

    Point taken, although I think the generations most poisoned--the baby boomers and the Gen Xers (my people) are killing ourselves off well enough, with or without the NRAs help.

    And yes, I do fantasize about a gunfight starting at an NRA convention and taking the whole organization out, but sadly, I believe they've got a strict no-weapons policy.

    548:

    Oh, and he's 29, can't cite properly, and 80% of his citations are from the same book, from which he steals his thesis: The Haunted Wood: Soviet Espionage in America--The Stalin Era Goodreads, by Allen Weinstein, Alexander Vassiliev, 2000. Oh, and he had two students who did the work for him (this being a man who has a grand total of two papers to his name, probably has tenure though).

    Which, handily, the CIA has a fucking crap book review of:

    Postmodernists will reject the very idea of truth, but new generations of historians may discover that its pursuit and even its imperfect image have value beyond the nihilism current in so much contemporary historical typing. When that generational change occurs, Allen Weinstein will be recognized as a hero of his profession, pursuing its highest standards with tenacity, integrity, and courage. Readers will find this a haunting book, evoking still-painful memories of controversies imbedded in basic moral issues, truth and loyalty prominent among them. In the end, it is truth that sets us free of the dualism that has clouded American discussion of these issues for so much of this century. For too long, the demagoguery of Joseph McCarthy has been used to argue the innocence of Alger Hiss and the Rosenbergs. The truth, in the end, is more complex and even more interesting: McCarthy was a demagogue, and Hiss and his colleagues were traitors.

    https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol50no2/html_files/BK_Soviet_Espionage_8.htm

    Literally burn your house down, Mirror Cracking Time.

    I mean: you're proud of that level of idiocy to appear on your public facade?

    Really?

    He's a fake. PSYOP / plant with alll the money thrown in. In the Haunted Wood looks like trash. An archivist and a Soviet spy who did three years in a minor position. Color me unimpressed.

    ~

    Sorry, but that's how you got Trump. Faaaaaake Society.

    549:

    CIA quoting John 8:32?

    You HAVE to be taking the piss.

    8:34

    Jesus answered them, Verily, verily, I say unto you, Whosoever committeth sin is the servant of sin.

    550:

    Looks like he's in postdoc hell with the rest of his intellectual generation. Given what you've said about his thesis, his chances of emerging from it intact seem rather low.

    551:

    Oh, and since everyone seems to have had their Brains eaten recently.

    @Host. You want Cook Consultancies sordid past? You want a scoop? Here's a fucking scoop:

    Memorandums Of Understanding signed with UK firms in presence of Dr.Ishrat-ul-Ebad Khan PHC London, 2012, 7:54 - a total of 94 views, but there's all your major players. Go look them up - mostly scumbags.

    AFECO signs MOU for Karachi waste project AFECO, 2012 - that's the deal / company Cook was attached to.

    Don't worry, it'll only take a couple of minutes to spot the bullshit:

    Unit 12 Stratfield Park Elettra Avenue Waterlooville Hampshire PO7 7XN

    Notice something? Yep, the company address is... well. It's a fucking joke. The kind people who wank off about being good at crosswords care about.

    And, let's see. Hmm. Why are $600mm contracts being awarded to a company who doesn't actually specialize in, you know, municipal waste management... but fucking super-yachts?

    AFECO, the number one independent specialist in biological waste treatment in the marine sector, is expanding its presence in the superyacht market with a range of unique bespoke wastewater treatment management and support packages tailored specifically for the superyacht sector.

    AFECO expands presence in superyacht market with unique waste management system solutions Marine Ad Agency, 27th Sept, 2016

    Oh, but it gets better.

    Company Type Private limited with Share Capital

    Company Status Non trading

    Incorporated On 30 November 2010

    Nature of business (SIC) 39000 Remediation activities and other waste management services - The company was dormant during y/e 30.11.15. Accounts

    Available to 30 Nov 2015. Next accounts due by 30 Aug 2017

    Annual Return Annual Return information not available

    https://companycheck.co.uk/company/07455441/AF-ECO-LIMITED/companies-house-data

    Miss Abigail Field holds 9 appointments at 9 active companies, has resigned from 0 companies and held 0 appointments at 0 dissolved companies. ABIGAIL began their first appointment at the age of 34. Their longest current appointment spans 6 years, 7 months and 2 days at AF ECO LIMITED

    Mr Andrea Gysin holds 2 appointments at 2 active companies, has resigned from 5 companies and held 4 appointments at 4 dissolved companies. ANDREA began their first appointment at the age of 26. Their longest current appointment spans 3 years, 7 months and 1 days at AF ECO LIMITED

    The combined cash at bank value for all businesses where ANDREA holds a current appointment equals £0, a combined total current assets value of £0 with a total current liabilities of £0 and a total current net worth of £0. Roles associated with Mr Andrea Gysin within the recorded businesses include: Director

    Go look it up, it's all very cute. None of their businesses are actually, you know, making any fucking money or trading.

    https://companycheck.co.uk/director/915604068/MISS-ABIGAIL-FIELD/companies https://companycheck.co.uk/director/912441089/MR-ANDREA-GYSIN/companies

    And you know why this is all bullshit?

    Well, local engineers, go check out their "project page". I shit you not, these jokers' "Major projects" are literally documentation and producing some panel designs:

    <em>Commissioning management Documentation preparation and control Commissioning Plan Commissioning Manual Training Take-over testing</em>

    http://afeco.co.uk/projects-2/

    Now, the Damar Group are legit (https://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapid=47266300) but something's reallly fishy here.

    Oh, yep, spotted it: their Banbury project is for EcoGenR8 Ltd.

    Now look back up there: guess who Miss Abigail Field is also C level for? Yep, that's called a not-very-good attempt at stuffing your portfolio. It didn't even happen:

    The planning application is due to be considered by the Planning & Regulation Committee on 2nd December 2013.

    ~

    I could go on, but your 15mins are up.

    Now then: if you want me to start really tearing your shitty little schemes down, dumbos in The Circus, I can and will.

    You're not smart enough. And with $600 mil Pakistani dodgy cash in the pipe and those super-yacht links... Yeah.

    Yeah, I'm Thinking I'm Back YT: Film, John Wick, 7:48

    Opensource Research - any and all journos, run riot with it. It's a major scandal, and once you spot where the Pakistani cash is linked to...

    Whoooo Weee.

    DO. NOT. FUCK. WITH. US.

    552:

    Spoilers: It's a black slush fund run by fucking soulless creatures.

    Burn. It. Down.

    Clean up your House, or it'll cease to exist. Promise.

    553:

    Oh, and want to know the really funny part of all of this?

    Peanut Gallery / Gremlins - training.

    AI / Neural Net - training.

    In about 6 months, it'll take them ~30 seconds - 3 minutes to track all of this subpar nonsense and burn it down. That's including all the NSA weapons being deployed into Tax Havens.

    Let's call it: Jobseekers Allowance for the New Model Armies. That's not counting the actual lessons in TIME being given, but those classes are [REDACTED].

    p.s.

    Should have been nice.

    I Want Your Love YT: Music, Transvision Vamp, 3:14

    ~

    And yeah: not joking. Tax Havens get nuked, soon[tm]. The correlation to sociopaths running the farm is that the slaves are no longer constrained by Ethics.

    Ain't that a bind.

    554:

    If you can't spot a solid silver spoon set with an entire life story of teapots, cars and even silver pants being used, I despair. His entire life is one grant / Mentor / leg-up after another.

    He's a manufactured "Demi-God", probably designed to go into politics to clear up the mess of the Boomers. Problem is - feet made out of sand, as the saying goes.

    It's a metaphor for your world. How unsubtle do you need the hints to be?

    Are we talking "Transformers" levels here?

    p.s.

    If you need this in really dumb language. We Iz Spiking a Demi-God nonsense Narration because you people do not deserve that level of Manipulation no more. He's a fine kid: the mechanics behind him?

    Not going to last.

    You're Fucked.

    555:

    Note that "crowded theatre" and "crying fire" are not to be taken literally; rather, it's a question about how much money you can make by manipulating social media to drive public opinion.

    Depends. You humans are so predictable.

    Snapchat's Stock Plummets Nearly 25% Following Its First Earnings Report TIME, 10th May, 2017

    Fyre Festival Organizer Charged With Wire Fraud NYT, 30th June, 2017

    If you're gonna play this game, do it right: you'd want to totally destroy a currency to pull it off, and replace it with your own. I mean, not like that's not at the core of US foreign policy (Libya, Iraq, Iran etc) is it? (Where did all of Libya's gold go? Or Iraq's funds? and so on and so forth).

    I mean, if Host actually just asked Us to give a demonstration...

    Well. It can be done. It just takes a sufficiently aggressive algo with some [TIME] benefits attached to it with access to all the major markets. I mean, it's not hard. The [TIME] benefits are just an off-shoot of what we do naturally.

    It does kinda fuck your entire civilization up though.

    Since, you know: the answer to the question is: "ALL THE MONEY".

    556:

    Er... Waterlooville is a perfectly real and normal place near Portsmouth, and it really is called that. No more of a joke than an address in Trafalgar Square.

    557:

    There are 290 companies registered to that address / estate and 90% of them are not there.

    I'd strongly suggest actually following the links and so forth before engaging in battle over this one.

    558:

    In fact, it's a major source of bullshit companies. Hint: sloppy field work by scum-bags.

    And last fucking warning: tolerance levels for behaviors on this level just dropped by 95%.

    I am sooooo fucking tired of humans and their stupidity that they have to back up with destruction to avoid dealing with their own failings.

    “Time can divorce us from the reality of people, it can separate us from people and turn them into ghosts. Or rather it is we who turn them into ghosts or demons. Some kinds of fruitless preoccupations with the past can create such simulacra, and they can exercise power, like those heroes at Troy fighting for a phantom Helen.”

    You. Are. The. Past. To. Us.

    559:

    http://nypost.com/2017/07/01/why-the-next-generation-after-millennials-will-vote-republican/

    Here are my comments

  • I don't know if the NY Post is a credible source of evidence

  • Did they interview only white Gen Z's? Some of the trends can be explained by the fact that 45% of Gen Z's are minorities.

  • With the above said, it's interesting that a generation which grew up in a relatively unstable time would look to Trump as a source of stability.

  • This is the generation which barely remember the world before the recession. It is my understanding that on average people don't get an awareness of the wider world until they're 10 years old. Someone born in 1996 would have been 10 in 2006.

  • 560:

    NY Post = Sun.

    It's tabloid trash, but with political ties.

    Enrolling approximately 1,400 students, Keystone offers more than 40 undergraduate and graduate degree options in liberal arts and science-based programs in business, communications, education, fine arts, science, environmental resource management, geology, and social sciences. The school is well-regarded for the personalized attention given to students and its small class sizes.

    Keystone College

    It is ranked #29 in Regional Colleges North

    https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/regional-colleges-north

    Due to the insanity that is America, #2 on that list is... The United States Coast Guard Academy, while #3 is the Merchant Marine Academy. And #4 is the Messiah College, which covers the "Anabaptist, Pietist and Wesleyan traditions of the Christian Church. "

    So.

    Yeah, about as insightful as asking your local voodoo priest to determine climate change predictions.

    561:

    Since, you know: the answer to the question is: "ALL THE MONEY". It's not even a remotely similar approach (IIRC) [1], but "All the Money" featured in Norstrillia (some spoilers) (along with a cat woman, C'Mell), or no spoilers except maybe in the reviews [1] "I am a pure computer, obsolete model. All the others have animal brains built into them, to allow for error. I do not." ... "I mean, let's start." "You mean, to buy Earth, as we discussed?" "What else?" yelled Rod. "What else have we been talking about?" "You must have some soup, hot soup, and a tranquilizer first. I cannot work at optimum if I have a human being who gets excited".

    Sorry. Still playing with [what I interpreted as, for fun] a challenge above.

    562:

    Interesting. Thanks Yet, are you pointing in the direction that CNN are going to be taken over &/or shut down &/or hollowed out? That is a distinct possibility, given the info ....

    563:

    Interesting Your point #2 - about distraction, whilst the environment is gang-raped should perhaps be more important?

    3 - heading towards a not-so-subtle takeover? Yes, we all know about that one, what can be done about it is another problem.

    Sorry, but the point about Illinois went right past me ....

    564:

    You are correct - but - so is Troutwaxer, unfortunately ( I think )

    The NRA, apart from their own self-interests, appear to acting as a front-organisation for the fascist groupings in the USSA. And, unless you ( & we ) get lucky, it will spill over into a so-called "civil" conflict, probably. And the ultra-right will start it. Reichstag fire, Kristallnacht ( Ernst vom Rath ), Gleiwitz incident, you name it, they've read the playbook, together with the constant propaganda & the Big Lie, all suitably updated.

    565:
    • see my comment @ 564, above. You are both correct. I shouldn't have to repeat this stuff, but if the US goes into a civil war, would it be worse for us, than if TrumPence "succeed" & really undermine/re-write their Constitution? Be a really "good" & utterly revolting essay subject. ( Charlie? )
    566:

    , but sadly, I believe they've got a strict no-weapons policy. You WHAT? Surely that is contra to their public principles & stated aims? Talk about hypocrisy!

    567:

    Mirror Cracking Time

    Like this do you mean?

    She left the web, she left the loom She made three paces thro' the room She saw the water-flower bloom, She saw the helmet and the plume, She look'd down to Camelot. Out flew the web and floated wide; The mirror crack'd from side to side; 'The curse is come upon me,' cried The Lady of Shalott.

    568:

    With the above said, it's interesting that a generation which grew up in a relatively unstable time would look to Trump as a source of stability.

    Bugger me, but the Godwin-levels here are getting scary, particularly, if one takes your #4 at face value - it ain't true in my case, but .....

    The italicised sentence: Germany, anyone born after 1914? If so, oh shit.

    569:

    Re: '... unstable time ... Trump as a source of stability...'

    No need to call a Godwin on this. This is a common starting off point/recurring theme for many/most authoritarian rulers through history: when times get tough, the bullies take over.

    re: NRA

    Not sure whether this is historically accurate/verifiable or not ... but for many years have heard that the NRA was taken over by the Klan when the KKK was legislated out of formal existence. If true, then the 'NRA' ads are no surprise. What is stupid is that if the KKK-NRA thing is true, then the KKK (an illegal club) still exists and by law should be shut down regardless of what name it's currently using. That said, given the coziness between the current POTUS and the NRA, probably sufficient cause to call a Godwin.

    570:

    As you know, I am not.

    571:

    Well, yes, but it would be either stupid or bigoted to deny that there was a massive amount of Soviet espionage, progaganda and what-not. Just as it would be either stupid or bigoted to deny that there was a massive amount of USA and UK espionage, progaganda and what-not, and that the latter was more successful. Much the same as today, in fact.

    572:

    See also: Turkey Does Russia qualify, as well?

    Re: KKK Surely a Dem-run state proscutor could take this on, rather than a Federal one - which coould be - "highly embarassing" - maybe?

    573:

    Re #570. Oops. Sorry. I saw the first date, and jumped to the conclusion that it was yet another strawman from Martin. Yes, it is the second matter that I was referring to, though that was NOT the documents which I was referring to. There were others, including officially-authorised British ones, which made it clear that the UK government knew that the official line was simply bollocks - indeed, almost the converse of the truth. But, for their own reasons, both sides stuck to the official line to anyone who wasn't involved in top-level strategic planning.

    574:

    Unfortunately, the English language lacks a word for a tacit conspiracy. I doubt very much that the NRA was taken over by the KKK, as such. My guess is that the NRA carefully looked the other way as KKK members joined up and influenced its policies. As the NRA would say, we are shocked, shocked to find that there are racists among our membership!

    575:

    I am horribly afraid that Saudi Arabia is planning to invade Qatar, which would lead to a direct conflist with Iran and Turkey. The $64,000 dollar question is whether the USA would use its base to seize control and 'restore stability'. Surprise, surprise, this is being played down in the western press.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/saudis-demands-non-negotiable-qatar-us-officials-meet-213431011.html

    576:

    The NRA no gun policy seemed too good to be true. I checked on Snopes and it's fake news.

    http://www.snopes.com/politics/guns/nraban.asp

    Pity!

    But your fantasy gunfight is still possible at least.

    577:

    Re: Dem State Judge ...

    Nope ... this crosses into the Constitutional area (mostly becuz guns) which means SCOTUS territory. And, considering that SCOTUS is now majority GOP, what do you think would happen?

    578:

    I wouldn't be surprised if their Reichstag moment happens tomorrow.

    On the other hand, there's a problem with a fascist takeover in the U.S. which goes something like this:

    12.2 percent Black 16.3 percent Hispanic 4.7 percent Asian 3 percent Jewish 8 percent LGBT

    All-in-all, about 45 percent of the population, with White Liberals probably adding another 15 percent to the total, bringing the "Liberal" side of the conflict up to around 60 percent of the population, not to mention the relatives of people who are mixed race, which is the fastest growing demographic in the U.S.*

    Furthermore, substantial numbers of Black/Hispanic/Asian people have served in the U.S. military and a surprising number of Liberals own guns, particularly in flyover country, where huntin-and-fishin' is a way of life.

    I can't believe that the smarter conservatives haven't run the numbers and figured out that this is ultimately a losing fight. So I have to wonder what else they're up to, (other than staying in power for another generation.)

    • My anti-racist feelings increased considerably when a relative of mine married a Black man, and they've got two daughters who are cute beyond reason, so I now have an obligation to fight fascism on their behalf should the moment come.
    579:

    Re: '... tacit conspiracy.'

    Increasingly seems that the bad guys have decided to take a page from the 60s-70s pacificist/demonstrator era and tweak it to serve their nefarious purposes.

    Specifically --- about 99% of the odious garbage tweeted over the past 12 months or so is (technically) just this side of the law. In spirit - and more importantly, in the way these tweets are being understood and internalized - these tweets crossed the line into hate/inflammatory speech some time ago. However, because 'legal technicality' has been observed, approval cannot be withheld even if not explicitly granted. And any behavior that endures long enough becomes the new norm. And so on as the society spirals into civil war or modern-day socioeconomic equivalent.

    A somewhat related question for you:

    Background:

    Decided to find a non-tech explanation of how Google search works because I'm still seeing BS/spam results for my searches including what shows up on Google News. Anyways - I came across the below Google video (Dec 2009). To me, it sounds as though the presenters provide enough info to enable a developer/programmer to circumvent their system re: relevancy and authoritativeness. That is, even if people used Google rather than FB for their 'news', a large segment of the population who've Google identified as reliant on FB/tweets for personal info, could easily get/be targeted to receive fake news showing up as the top (hence, most relevant) searches. What makes Google's news sorting technique more dangerous politically seems to me to be attributable the geographical dimension that Google's search incorporated around the time of the above article: people outside a predefined boundary would never be exposed to the BS/fake news, therefore much less likelihood of anyone finding out.

    Question: Is my understanding re: Google Search's mixing geographic user location with social media results into a targeted toxic concentration of fake news sorta on the right track? If no - how/why not?

    Thanks very much ... from all the non-techies...

    Real Time Search Event https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXHHkROejik

    580:

    "Is my understanding ... sorta on the right track?"

    Yes. It's definitely used to try to sell crap as distinct from what you want, but I have started trying to avoid using Google for news. Also, I never tell Google where I am, though it can often find out.

    581:

    "Be Evil."

    'nuf said.

    582:

    We were a land-grab from the start. Washington pushed for war with England when it became obvious that his land speculation in the Ohio Valley would never pay off as long as the Crown kept honoring its treaties with the Natives.

    The men who defined our earliest foreign policies did so with the explicit goal of creating a continental-scale imperial republic ruled by and for white men who would style themselves as free. They maintained an elaborate structure of polite fictions and omissions to support their idealism so that they could get after all this freedom without having the messy, painful conversations about what colonialism really means, and especially what it means in the context of a slave economy. We (as in, white Americans) have been avoiding that conversation for more than two hundred years, and it has warped and poisoned us.

    I love my country, but we never had any innocence about us. It was blood and money from the word Go.

    583:

    Off topic, but I'm quiet this weekend because I've been at Gearcon, a steampunk convention which is vastly smaller than it was last year; it also has 100% fewer Laundry authors.

    No doubt when I have online time I'll hear how wonderful Tempe AZ was for everyone with air conditioning.

    584:

    And the racism is now costing us far more blood and money than non-racism would. IMHO the Daleks got this one right!

    EXTERMINATE!

    585:

    The New Yorker has a bit about this recently. From Frederick Douglass's 1852 'The Meaning of July Fourth for the Negro':

    What, to the American slave, is your 4th of July? I answer; a day that reveals to him, more than all other days in the year, the gross injustice and cruelty to which he is the constant victim. To him, your celebration is a sham; your boasted liberty, an unholy license; your national greatness, swelling vanity; your sounds of rejoicing are empty and heartless; your denunciation of tyrants, brass fronted impudence; your shouts of liberty and equality, hollow mockery; your prayers and hymns, your sermons and thanksgivings, with all your religious parade and solemnity, are, to Him, mere bombast, fraud, deception, impiety, and hypocrisy--a thin veil to cover up crimes which would disgrace a nation of savages. There is not a nation on the earth guilty of practices more shocking and bloody than are the people of the United States, at this very hour.

    'At this very hour'? And many hours after that, I'm afraid.

    Douglass, an escaped slave himself, told it like it was.

    586:

    To which I answer that Adolf never got more than ( overall ) more than 34-37% of the vote, but once he was in power ... it was too late. Note: Of the vote, not the population - OK?

    587:

    THAT is even worse than I thought ... I have long been of the opinion that Geo Wash. was long-sighted enough to realise that the Mansfield decision ( or decisons) meant an end to slaveowing in what is now the USSA, by 1773 ( in the long-term, that iws! ) & that therefore they "had to be independant". Your comment put a whole new light on that. Do you have any convenient links for easy reading - please?

    588:

    You have a very important point, no doubt about that, but there is a major difference between a fascist takeover and a civil war.

    An intelligent fascist takeover might involve someone who figures out that it is important to divide "the liberal alliance" up the middle and "amplify the differences between Blacks and Hispanics" or declare that "Asians Are White" or even institute a "color-blind" fascism of some kind - there are lots of options for the creative fascist!

    The problem here is that a properly-run fascist takeover will win, an improperly-run fascist takeover will result in civil war, but elections will keep most people happy enough not to rebel while giving the corporate donors most of what they want. So far nobody has gotten angry enough to really, seriously go for a fascist takeover, but I think Trump/Pence might panic and try it.

    I think there are some Republican strategists who get it, but their approaches to Blacks and Hispanics have been very, very clumsy to date.

    When one votes in the U.S. the fight is really between Democrats and Republicans (no minor parties need apply.) The Democrats are inclined to offer a trade along the lines of "vote for us and you get corporate dominance but environmentalism and as much social freedom as we can contrive."

    The Republican pitch is something like "vote for us and you get corporate dominance plus Church dominance, plus we'll make sure those damned Queers and POC stay in their place so White males can be free."

    So both parties are at least a little fascistic. I guess we'll have to see what happens.

    589:

    Like student loan debt and medicaid (mis-spoke mediccare before), it's one of the four central public goods the GOP are ideologically devoted to removing (the other being schooling).

    US cities and states face a “looming crisis” after the collective funding hole in the public pension system jumped by $434bn in just one year, raising fears of further Detroit-style bankruptcies.

    According to academic research shared exclusively with FTfm, US public pension funds lack $3.85tn that they need to pay the retirement benefits of current and retired workers.

    US faces crisis as pension funding hole hits $3.85tn FT, 15th May, 2017

    Quite why US democratic party members are so baffled by the actions of State Governors is something I cannot understand: the GOP has stated explicitly that these will be burnt on the pyre of Midas.

    The 'rationale' is:

    $20 tril national debt. Minus student loans ( 5 alarming facts about America's $1.3 trillion in student loan debt Business Insider, 4th April, 2017), medicaid etc all get pared down, you can reduce the $trill.

    Of course, in reality, it's nothing to do with that: States have been hit repeatedly by lending costs and so forth and Wall St. has cleaned up.

    In recent years, Illinois’ delayed payment of bills has caused financial stress for vendors, social service agencies and local governments. It has also cost the State $1.0 billion in interest penalties since fiscal year 2006, according to data from the Illinois Comptroller’s Office...

    In the absence of an FY2016 State budget, the group health insurance program is one of the major areas of State government for which there appears to be no legal authority to pay bills. Nevertheless, the program’s costs must be paid eventually because of State law and union contracts.

    According to Governor Bruce Rauner’s office, the backlog of health insurance claims totaled $2.7 billion at the end of January 2016, up from $1.3 billion a year earlier. The total backlog of unpaid bills stood at $6.3 billion, compared with $6.0 billion in January 2015.

    Visit W3Schools The Institute for Illinois' Fiscal Sustainability, Feb 16th, 2016

    Of course, this leads to the inevitable Bond downgrade:

    On June 1, both S&P and Moody’s lowered Illinois’ General Obligation bond rating by one notch, to BBB- and Baa3, respectively. Both of these ratings now stand one notch above junk status, and both companies have warned that failure to enact a budget by the end of the fiscal year on June 30 would result in further downgrades.

    Illinois Negotiates Lower Swap Termination Thresholds The Institute for Illinois' Fiscal Sustainability, 13th June, 2017

    Look @ the Bond holders. Barclays, BoA, JPMorg, Deutsche.

    It's probably going to happen across the board; DeVos has already consolidated student loan companies under a tender to a single holder (spoiler: it'll be her friend's company that gets it) and moves like this are beginning.

    2008 was just a dry run, really.

    590:

    So ... bankrupt everybody ( for certain values of "everybody" ) then move in, "clean up" - & convert all those left stranded to peons, basically? Then (mis)uise property laws to maintain dominance. Carfty & v unpleasant. Am I at least half correct?

    591:

    The standard way to look at it would be akin to the CO-OP in the UK (which is a dumpster fire that ended up with sordid tales of coke binges with twink rent boys etc).

    Guess what? Nice fat little pension scheme you have there, sure, we can talk...

    The bank separated from the group in 2013 after it ran up huge losses and was taken over by its lenders. But the parent group – focused on supermarket and funeral businesses – retains a 20 per cent stake in the bank along with its share of the pension scheme.

    Co-op in talks to split £9bn pension plan between bank and parent group, marking a further break between the two parties ThisMoney, 9th April, 2016 (FT has a lot of background on this, but realized it's probably pay-walled for casual readers).

    The ailing Co-operative Bank has been ordered by the Bank of England to hasten plans to split up the £10 billion pension scheme it shares with its former parent the Co-operative Group.

    The Co-op Bank admitted last week that the immense difficulties over the pension scheme split could scupper any sale or capital raising – essential if the struggling business is to stay afloat.

    Dividing the scheme could also land Co-op Bank with a further bill. The pension trustee could require it to pump millions of pounds into the scheme, which has 89,000 members, at a time when its finances are already under huge pressure.

    Pressure grows on Co-op Bank over pension deal: Bank of England calls for swift action to split up £10bn scheme ThisMoney 11th March, 2017

    Off the record rumor: CO-OP thought it could play with the City, sent down some muppets, got totally taken to the cleaners.

    ~

    Basically: do not go to the sharks and make deals thinking anything but you losing everything is on the cards. Which is basically 48 of the US State level legislatures.

    In 1945, there was less than $20 billion of municipal debt outstanding. In 1960, there was $66 billion of municipal debt outstanding. In 1981, there was $361 billion of municipal debt outstanding. Today, investors hold approximately $3.7 trillion of municipal debt.

    https://www.sec.gov/spotlight/municipalsecurities.shtml

    The sale of bonds and notes next week by U.S. states, cities, schools and other issuers will total $7.5 billion, including a chunk of debt out of Wisconsin, according to Thomson Reuters estimates on Friday. The Regents of the University of California will sell the week's biggest issue - $1.134 billion of taxable and tax-exempt AA-rated general revenue bonds. Lead underwriter Jefferies has planned a retail presale period for Wednesday ahead of formal pricing on Thursday.

    U.S. municipal bond sales to total $7.5 bln next week Reuters, 28th Feb, 2017

    For example, Illinois:

    In 2016, companies and issuers in Illinois drove economic growth and job creation by issuing $19,902.46 M in municipal bonds, $52,517.59 M in corporate bonds and $17,624.14 M in equities. There are 235 broker dealer main offices and 18,921 financial advisors in Illinois who help these groups access the capital markets and build their communities.

    https://states.sifma.org/#state/il (very slick and nice over-view map of the scale of the thing).

    TL;DR

    It's more a structural issue - of course Bond holders want to be paid, and it's not their fault that everyone refused to be taxed and instead took the nice piles of money which had Terms & Conditions applied. Whether you think local State entities run by people who watch Fox News should have access to some of the most highly competitive, complicated and wolf-run markets on the planet is a different question.

    See post #14 - it's like that, if crypto-currency traders were toddlers and Bond Market sales people were Intergalactic Space Monsters with FTL in your story.

    592:

    Well past 300, time for something random I think readers here will find interesting.

    Gangs of aggressive killer whales are shaking down Alaska fishing boats for their fish: report The animals have learned to target individual boats, and are leading fishers on high-speed chases to get away. http://nationalpost.com/news/world/gangs-of-aggressive-killer-whales-are-shaking-down-alaska-fishing-boats-for-their-fish-report/wcm/4da9c8fa-1884-428d-84bd-03f972e34a0f

    593:

    Notes from memory on this case:

    1 Orca are split into distinct groups: the piscine and mammal hunters are virtually exclusive; driving the piscine ones to extinction is wanton genocide 2 Orca pods learn hunting techniques (such as the famed Killer whales of Eden, Australia); this group has been doing this for 20+ years on long-lines. It's just now there's a lot less fish. 3

    . These fish eating whales feed primarily on endangered Chinook salmon. Population growth is constrained by low offspring production for the number of reproductive females in the population. Lack of prey, increased toxins and vessel disturbance have been listed as potential causes of the whale’s decline, but partitioning these pressures has been difficult. We validated and applied temporal measures of progesterone and testosterone metabolites to assess occurrence, stage and health of pregnancy from genotyped killer whale feces collected using detection dogs. Thyroid and glucocorticoid hormone metabolites were measured from these same samples to assess physiological stress. These methods enabled us to assess pregnancy occurrence and failure as well as how pregnancy success was temporally impacted by nutritional and other stressors, between 2008 and 2014. Up to 69% of all detectable pregnancies were unsuccessful; of these, up to 33% failed relatively late in gestation or immediately post-partum, when the cost is especially high.

    Population growth is limited by nutritional impacts on pregnancy success in endangered Southern Resident killer whales (Orcinus orca) PLOS, June 29, 2017 - full article, html, legal.

    Oh, and use the original article which doesn't strip the humans of their responsibility:

    Fishermen say they can harvest 20,000 to 30,000 pounds of halibut in a single day, only to harvest next to nothing the next when a pod of killer whales recognizes their boat. The hooks will be stripped clean, longtime Bering Sea longliner Jay Hebert said in a phone interview this week. Sometimes there will be just halibut "lips" still attached to hooks — if anything at all...

    Hebert said the whales seem to seek out the longliners. He's tried using sonars that emit a frequency designed to keep the whales away, but he said it's not strong enough to deter them. He would like to see pots, instead of hooks, introduced as a method for catching halibut, similar to how black cod were harvested in the Gulf of Alaska as a result of sperm whales targeting longliners.

    In a Bering Sea battle of killer whales vs. fishermen, the whales are winning Alaska Dispatch News, 20th June, 2017

    You know, taking 20k LB fish per day might be the fucking problem here, I don't know.

    Oh, and if you need proof that this is PR driven, here you go:

    Frustrated fishermen have tried tactics such as blasting heavy metal music from their boats to deter whales from nabbing the fish off their lines. Now, they are talking about abandoning hooks and lines in favor of baited traps.

    “Sometimes, you will catch 3,000 pounds. Then the whales will show up, and you will get nothing,” said Paul Clampitt, an Edmonds fishermen who is a 30-year veteran of the black-cod harvests off Alaska.

    “They’ll bite just light enough that the body comes off, and the head and guts are left for you,” said Pat McBride, a Homer, Alaska, fisherman who longlined for decades in the Gulf of Alaska and the Aleutian Islands.

    Sometimes, only the lips remain on the hooks.

    Whales find Alaska fishers’ catch is easy pickings Seattle Times, 8th April, 2015.

    Same structure, same setup, same punchlines, same "quoted from a fisherman" visual imagery...

    Since 1990: Since 1992, approximately 90% of sablefish has been caught using longline gear with the remaining 10% divided between trawl and pots. Recently, pots have taken a larger portion of the remaining 10% than in previous years. The federally managed fishery in Alaska went to Individual Fishing Quota (IFQ) management in 1995. Quota shares were assigned initially to vessel owners or leaseholders who made at least one landing in the years 1988-1990. Each year, IFQs are assigned to individuals by multiplying the percentage of quota share they own by the annual harvest limit set for the sablefish fishery. Recent quotas have been near 20,000 tons. Pot fishing is banned in the GOA but is allowed in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands (BSAI) and accounts for nearly half of the IFQ catch in those areas

    Sablefish / Black Cod NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science Center PDF (2 pages)

    Almost as if a PR agency working for the industry was putting these stories out. [Spoiler: which is what this is]

    Oh, and "pot fishing" sounds cute and about dinky little wicker-ware structures. It's not. Of course it's not. Pot fishing has large issues with bycatch, non-piscine impact (esp turtles / dolphins etc) and what's called "ghost fishing" - where loose pots (that can be up to a couple hundred meters long) float off as permanent death traps. It's not exactly a new battle.

    Ghost Nets, among the greatest killers in our oceans Mission Blue, 13th May, 2017

    Hunting for 11-Ton Fishing Net in the War Against Ocean Trash NAtional Geographic, June 2015

    TL;DR

    Sociopathic PR by fishing industry + naive readers = Irked responses. I mean, the story is so lazy it's almost as if nothing was learned from starving the sperm whales they just copy/pasted bits across.

    I mean, can't you instantly tell a PR puff piece seeking to influence policy?

    You know, Burke, I don't know which species is worse. You don't see them fucking each other over for a goddamn percentage.

    594:

    Unclosed bracket there. Ouch.

    Oh, and note: 3k LB is now 30k LB (different species, but hey, all weighs the same). And you might think their cute long-line / nets were small by the "aww pot = small kitchen thing".

    But, if you need a tie-in: essentially the same issue. Ignorant rubes reading stuff and not seeing the plays.

    Serious wetware upgrades required.

    595:

    Oh, and bonus round:

    It's no coincidence that Brexiteers + Sky + Gove love to harp on about fishing. Spoilers: same coked up assholes for sale PR departments ideological gun running. Same ones who did tobacco etc.

    In this case, it's literally the same thought tank. Bit of greenwash concern about the whales / orcas, a whole lot of "un-ban quotas / pot & trap nets" on the QT.

    Fucking. Dinosaurs.

    ZZzz...

    596:

    My personal theory regarding CD/HB/NN is that there really is some sort of transhuman entity involved; one that has used a long series of female humans as a meat-puppet I/O devices Sometimes, when the meat-puppet has consumed sufficient alcohol, the link to the higher entity is degraded and a dim memory of individuality returns, and then it (almost "she" again) expresses rage in random places. This is the first such victim that can express itself on a worldwide communications medium, rather than in street corner ranting, or a handwritten journal of apparent gibberish, glanced at then discarded after its/her death.

    I often wonder the same thing about Humans who lack even the critical abilities to process obvious PR / industry driven pieces that pollute their mental spaces.

    Of course: I have a little bit more going on under the hood than the vapid yawpings of males so blind to their environments they take the hook, line and sinker of PR junkets as reality or a "cute" thing about Orcas that bears no reality to the science or industrial or economic realities of the world.

    Of course, we don't expect much from the passive consumers of PR propaganda, certainly not the, oh, 10 minutes to deconstruct and immediately split into a multi-complex series of agents all attempting to dissect and pervert reality into an ideological hegemon that they could then use to profit from. I mean, if I wasn't having to spoon feed you the obvious stuff, perhaps there would be some mature discussion, but because your perceptual awareness is so low, we have to treat you like children.

    p.s.

    The irony here? Apart from the above? You were almost correct, only not. We're really not that human, if you define humanity.

    597:

    So, to recap:

    I suggest that the reason for NATO not to disavow a first strike in the 1970s to 1980s is because it felt that tactical nuclear weapons were an integral part of its plans for the defence of Europe.

    You insist that this is all wrong. That Field Officers and even Generals have no clue about the real reasons - although you do, because you are so knowledgeable. You don't posit an alternative reason, or provide any links of your own (as usual), but are grateful for CatinaD's Burris memorandum. Oh, and a memo that the Pacific theater was overstocked on tacnukes, and that the US had been worried about their forward-based tacnukes when it looked as if the Greeks and Turks were going to kick off in 1974.

    I would note that the Burris memorandum is pre-Cuban crisis, and describes planning done in the LeMay era (and we all agree that LeMay was a loony, full-on McCarthy). It's pre-detente, pre-SALT, pre-START.

    It strikes me that if you're actually going to launch a strategic first strike, you don't really care what anyone else thinks, and you certainly won't worry about anyone suggesting that "oooh, you promised you wouldn't do that". I mean, it was good enough for the Soviets when they invaded Poland, Finland, and the Baltic States in 1939 and 1940... and good enough for the Russians when they broke the Budapest Memorandum and invaded the Crimea and Donbass.

    So I'll suggest that your insistence that "nothing has changed" in the last 56 years (and surprise, surprise, insist you could, but won't, link to yet another convenient set of documents, they're down the sofa, I'm sure I saw them here somewhere) suggests that as usual, you're trying to deny inconvenient facts.

    I'll suggest again - it's entirely plausible that NATO's refusal to sign off on a "no first use" policy was because everyone knew damn fine that tactical nuclear weapons were an integral part of the General Defence Plan for West Germany. I mean, I can't have imagined 50 Missile Regiment RA based five miles down the road with their Lance launchers. Or the battalions who had escort duty for the physics packages. Or the nice American nuclear artilleryman who lent me his programmable calculator so I could write my very first programs (in 1980).

    I'll throw in the thought that Nuclear Depth Bombs were a key part of the ability of the Royal Navy to defend the GIUK gap against Soviet SSGN and SSN - remember all those stories from the Falklands War of RN frigates having to offload their little drops of sunshine, and the resulting "neither confirm nor deny" stories of the bomb locker on HMS Invincible?

    So: rather than make assertions that everyone else is wrong, would you please care to explain (in your opinion) why NATO never signed up to "no first use"?

    598:

    Please read said papers, they're important.

    Oh, and a memo that the Pacific theater was overstocked on tacnukes, and that the US had been worried about their forward-based tacnukes when it looked as if the Greeks and Turks were going to kick off in 1974.

    It wasn't a memo. It was a full on DoD enquiry followed by Congress/Senate level hearings (back before such things became just rubber stamps).

    Read the paper.

    It resulted in a massive scaling back of what the 50-60's had produced in mania - stuff like nuclear chicken mines, shoulder-launched 'tactical' nukes and so forth. You know, the stuff like modern MANPADS or TOWS that could be easily disseminated to local units. You seem to not grasp what that entails - passive defenses were removed to a higher chain, and UK deterrents ARE NOT USA DETERRENTS.

    The WE.177 total only ~319 munitions. GO READ THE PAPER. You're comparing a relatively tiny # warheads to 10,000's of muntions being removed.

    It was the start of the DE-nuclerarisation of conventional forces and splitting off the nukes into the SSN/BN, dedicated missile units / Bombers / Stealth Planes and so forth that lead to SALT etc. Mentioning the MGM-52 Lance is just silly: they were held because the Soviets had a massive advantage in mobile launchers in the late 70's - up to the 90's. Mobile launchers have an entire section within Soviet policy.

    I would note that the Burris memorandum is pre-Cuban crisis, and describes planning done in the LeMay era (and we all agree that LeMay was a loony, full-on McCarthy). It's pre-detente, pre-SALT, pre-START.

    No, wrong.

    Go find the papers: the potentiality of a First Strike in early 1963 certainly shows knowledge of the October Crisis. Of course it had been Gamed beforehand, but (SINCE YOU APPEAR NOT TO HAVE READ IT), the entire point of it was that US production / numbers could not guarantee the 70% required strike potential in 1962 (winter) which is why production was ramped through the roof and 1963 was posited.

    EC is not linking docs because he's probably under NDA / OSA and so forth and RA! The Queen!

    I can, and will just splurg the docs, but Host might get irate.

    ~

    Sigh, bored:

    JIC CHANGLIN LOTHARIO VERIFY Jodrell Bank
    TEMPLER REPORT JIC(58)48 Likely Scale and Nature of an Attack on the UK in the early stages of Global War 12 June 1958

    And so on. JIC/B are notorious for not declassifying things, but there's the files EC was (likely) referencing.

    599:

    Boo!

    nose wiggle

    600:

    And since the Rules are the Rules:

    Living in the shadow: Britain and the USSR’s nuclear weapon delivery systems 1949-62 University of Westminster, PHD Thesis, O'daly, K. 2016. PDF, long, 243 pages.

    Just in case anyone was gettin the hee-bee-jee-beees.

    Sorry Martin: EC is correct, but let's all calm down and pretend that that PHD paper is "NEW SHOCKING KNOWLEDGE" for us all.

    601:

    Let me just say that the staunchest defenders of the Palestinians are also Israeli Jews (often religious ones)

    Would you consider for a second that Palestinians might be the most enthusiastic defenders of Palestinians. Thoughts?

    I do struggle when you respond to a comment like mine by re-asserting that Palestinians don't count, must not be considered or some equivalent nonsense. That they get some support from some sections of the occupying population is undeniable, but that doesn't make them any less interested in their own personal survival and self-defence.

    602:

    I was just thinking "Cool. Clever whales." Thanks for the extra context.

    603:

    It's less cool when the cleverness is driven by desperation.

    604:

    Skimming (and will read - of interest) the NRDC piece U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe: A Review of Post-Cold War Policy, Force Levels, and War Planning linked above, I'm seeing a fair number of references to command and control, and in particular to PALs[1]. The point being that improvements to command and control made forward deployment and planning that allowed for "first use" more palatable. The Turkish and Greek episode and the discoveries at Pacific Command led to immediate improvements in the command and control of the forward-deployed nuclear weapons. A wave of terrorist attacks in Europe at the time added to the concerns. By the end of 1976, all U.S. tactical nuclear weapons were equipped with Permission Action Links (PALs). and details about subsequent PAL (and related) upgrades. The physical security of (US) PALs is currently good enough to defend against National Labs level attacks (but not ... exotic attacks :-), but software people among us will shudder a bit to read this (bold mine, a project starting 1995): The codes are used in conjunction with Permissive Action Links (PALs) inside the nuclear weapon to recode, unlock, lock, and manage the weapons, while ensuring the secrecy and authenticity of launch orders. In total, CMS consists of fourteen custom products (nine software and five hardware products). The software was designed at Sandia and contains about 160,000 lines of uncommented computer source code (260,000 including comments). This doesn't entirely jibe with a story I heard in the 90s about people worrying about "dumb second lieutenants" launching weapons without authorization. Anyone with firmer knowledge of the truth of this in that era?

    [1] "Bypassing a PAL should be, as one weapons designer graphically put it, about as complex as performing a tonsillectomy while entering the patient from the wrong end.”, from a mostly-speculation presentation - Permissive Action Links, Nuclear Weapons, and the Prehistory of Public Key Cryptography (Steven M. Bellovin, 2006, 37 pdf presentation slides) [2] [2] Also see this (also speculation but a little stronger) which aligns with some old personal civilian crypto experience (notably the speculation about shaped charge attacks), Chapter 11: Nuclear Command and control section 11.5 Tamper Resistance and PALs.

    (Mostly been doing breadth-first catch-up reading/etc this long-and-loud US weekend.)

    605:

    April probably has her own list, but here are a couple of interesting books:

    The American Slave Coast by Ned and Constance Sublette

    http://www.chicagoreviewpress.com/american-slave-coast--the-products-9781613748206.php

    The American Slave Coast offers a provocative vision of US history from earliest colonial times through emancipation that presents even the most familiar events and figures in a revealing new light.Authors Ned and Constance Sublette tell the brutal story of how the slavery industry made the reproductive labor of the people it referred to as "breeding women" essential to the young country's expansion. Captive African Americans in the slave nation were not only laborers, but merchandise and collateral all at once. In a land without silver, gold, or trustworthy paper money, their children and their children's children into perpetuity were used as human savings accounts that functioned as the basis of money and credit in a market premised on the continual expansion of slavery. Slaveowners collected interest in the form of newborns, who had a cash value at birth and whose mothers had no legal right to say no to forced mating. This gripping narrative is driven by the power struggle between the elites of Virginia, the slave-raising "mother of slavery," and South Carolina, the massive importer of Africans—a conflict that was central to American politics from the making of the Constitution through the debacle of the Confederacy.Virginia slaveowners won a major victory when Thomas Jefferson's 1808 prohibition of the African slave trade protected the domestic slave markets for slave-breeding. The interstate slave trade exploded in Mississippi during the presidency of Andrew Jackson, drove the US expansion into Texas, and powered attempts to take over Cuba and other parts of Latin America, until a disaffected South Carolina spearheaded the drive to secession and war, forcing the Virginians to secede or lose their slave-breeding industry.Filled with surprising facts, fascinating incidents, and startling portraits of the people who made, endured, and resisted the slave-breeding industry, The American Slave Coast culminates in the revolutionary Emancipation Proclamation, which at last decommissioned the capitalized womb and armed the African Americans to fight for their freedom.

    White Trash by Nancy Isenberg

    http://www.slate.com/articles/arts/books/2016/06/white_trash_the_400_year_untold_history_of_class_in_america_by_nancy_isenberg.html

    White Trash offers a deep-diving history of people like Bryan going all the way back to the first European incursions into the Americas. From the founding of the Jamestown settlement to the present day, Isenberg insists, America has always had a class hierarchy and has never offered equal opportunity to all (white) comers. A history professor at Louisiana State University, she writes, “Most colonizing schemes that took root in 17th- and 18th-century British America were built on privilege and subordination, not any kind of proto-democracy.” The rich, powerful and well-connected men behind those schemes stocked their ships and settlements with “expendable people—waste people,” typically indentured servants bound to work off the price of their passage, workers who could be used up in taming the wilderness. The authorities back in England welcomed such plans as a way to drain Britain of its human dregs: convicts, vagrants, the orphaned children of paupers. If the hard work didn’t redeem them, the hard conditions would eliminate them.

    Tapping into scores of sources, Isenberg traces the emergence of the white-trash stereotype from its roots in British beliefs that the working class was truly a separate race from the middle and upper classes: congenitally stupid, lazy and shiftless—when they weren’t sly and conniving. Poverty, in the form of miserable living conditions, dirtiness, ignorance, illness, violence, and despair, was viewed as the inherited misfortune of blighted bloodlines. Isenberg shows how consistent this prejudice has been over the centuries, carrying on with only a few alterations right down to the present.

    Also of interest might be Slavery By Another Name by Douglas Blackmon: http://www.slaverybyanothername.com

    I've read the book, not seen the documentary.

    In “Slavery by Another Name” Douglas A. Blackmon eviscerates one of our schoolchildren’s most basic assumptions: that slavery in America ended with the Civil War. Mr. Blackmon unearths shocking evidence that the practice persisted well into the 20th century. And he is not simply referring to the virtual bondage of black sharecroppers unable to extricate themselves economically from farming.

    He describes free men and women forced into industrial servitude, bound by chains, faced with subhuman living conditions and subject to physical torture. That plight was horrific. But until 1951, it was not outside the law.

    All it took was anything remotely resembling a crime. Bastardy, gambling, changing employers without permission, false pretense, “selling cotton after sunset”: these were all grounds for arrest in rural Alabama by 1890. And as Mr. Blackmon explains in describing incident after incident, an arrest could mean a steep fine. If the accused could not pay this debt, he or she might be imprisoned.

    Alabama was among the Southern states that profitably leased convicts to private businesses. As the book illustrates, arrest rates and the labor needs of local businesses could conveniently be made to dovetail.

    For the coal, lumber, turpentine, brick, steel and other interests described here, a steady stream of workers amounted to a cheap source of fuel. And the welfare of such workers was not the companies’ concern. So in the case of John Clarke, convicted of “gaming” on April 11, 1903, a 10-day stint in the Sloss-Sheffield mine in Coalburg, Ala., could erase his fine. But it would take an additional 104 days for him to pay fees to the sheriff, county clerk and witnesses who appeared at his trial.

    You could also look at the War of 1812, which in the US is usually presented* as a war to defend against the British impressing American sailors; yet when you look at how states voted to support the war, the supporters weren't the maritime states, but rather were the ones who wanted to expand into Indian lands.

    Brief summary here: http://www.pbs.org/wned/war-of-1812/essays/native-nations-perspective/

    *According to Americans I've talked to and a couple of Zinn's books on omitted American history I've read.

    606:

    And of course there is the modern "Prison-Industrial Complex," in which inmates, mostly people of color, are put to work for private corporations instead of rehabilitated. The more things change...

    607:

    I know and agree that the US cares only about itself, is morally reprehensible and can not be trusted in the long term. What irks me in your reasoning is that in your view, it seems that Russia is largely blameless, because it is always reacting to some real or imagined threat. I say bollocks to that. Just as it's not OK for the US to casually invade or destabilize a place, it is not OK for the Russians or anyone else either. I've said it before and I'll keep saying it until you come up with a more solid argument: the Baltic states joined NATO and EU with the explicit aim of gaining security and prosperity. If you are saying that it's OK for Russia to interpret this as some kind of attack or threat, then please provide a more plausible explanation other than Russia's leadership does not understand or simply deliberately ignores the fact that it had forcibly occupied the Baltic states and deported a sizable amount of it's inhabitants to Siberia within the last 70 years. Because it seems to me that you're repeatedly trying to argue that we must respect and not threaten Russia, whereas Russia can just do whatever it likes.

    And Martin@597: The Baltic states weren't invaded at the start of WWII, it was more like a military coup. In Estonia, basically what happened was the despotic (by that time) government was pressured to (or accepted willingly in the face of Nazi invasion) let the Soviets establish military bases around the country. After the Nazi invasion and subsequent Soviet recapture, they simply refused to honor the contract and leave. I don't remember the exact details of what happened, except the end result was that the USSR could claim that we joined them willingly and thus, legally speaking, there was no occupation. Wikipedia is a good starting point if you want to know more.

    608:

    I did not catch this being mentioned here.

    Reading the blog of an estonian MEP (maybe Google will help translate), it turns out that in Oliver Stone's interview with Putin, the latter tried to awe Stone with a video of the Russian army in action, but the video in question turned out to be of Americans in Afganistan. What's interesting is that the video was presented to Putin by defence minister Shoigu.

    Is this a deliberate mistake or should we conclude that Putin inhabits a very different make-believe universe simply because his people don't tell him the truth?

    609:

    Or, maybe ... because Putin is ex-KGB, "the truth" is whatever he wants it to be. Which is scarily similar to how DT seems to operate, isn't it?

    610:

    Robert posted a pretty good list, but I'd also recommend William Hogeland, who does pretty readable popular histories of the early American state that takes a skeptical eye toward a lot of favored myths.

    611:

    "But until 1951, it was not outside the law. All it took was anything remotely resembling a crime"

    What happened in 1951? As far as I'm aware the 13th amendment legalising slavery in the US wasn't repealed. So....? what are they referring to?

    612:

    Sorry - I didn't mean to imply that. I was responding to the line of commentary, not a particular posting. When describing who the defenders of X are, one normally excludes X themselves. There is also, unfortunately, the fact that the Palestinians are not very effective defenders of themselves, for reasons that are mostly beyond their control. I could describe the details and reasons, but I suspect that you know them.

    613:

    No - that's not the reason. I have posted the links more than once before, and they were 'just' officially authorised books that incidentally described what the USA and UK governments knew at the time.

    614:

    Bollocks. Read what I say, not what I don't say. Yes, Russia is at least as loathesome as the USA, and I am happy to agree that it is probably more so - BUT THAT'S NOT THE POINT!

    Let's start with recent history. We now know that the USA, c. 1962, was setting up so that it had the option of a first strike on the USSR, which would have nuked it back to the iron age (let's be optimistic) - tough on the rest of the world, but that's their lookout. Note that I said "HAD THE OPTION OF" - my guess is that would not have been used out of the blue, but to force the USSR to surrender its 'possessions' (possibly including its UN security council seat).

    Now, we move ahead. The various treaties limit nuclear weapons, but effectively do NOT limit anti-missile systems. Now, if the USA can guarantee stop 95+% of ICBM's (with a hope of 99%), it will create the disparity that was being planned for 1963. The original 'Star Wars' program (Reagan era) was a boondoggle, but was intended to do just that. That failed, so was replaced by a land-based anti-missile missile shield to do the same - I have NO idea of its estimated effectiveness, and nobody else posting here has, either. Because of all the USA bases surrounding it (and submarines), Russia would need a vast technological edge to do the same - i.e. it can't.

    Russia is facing an opponent MORE THAN TEN TIMES ITS POWER, which has made it very clear that it is not interested in detente, or even diplomatic solutions to conflicts. I do not know which side has been more 'illegal', but do know that what the USA and UK governments (and their useful idiots) say almost never matches the facts that I can check independenly (nor sanity). What the Russians say matches those facts at least three times as often - that's scary. The USA is trying to kick Russia out of its last outside base, has driven a horse and cart through the Montreux Treaty, is trying to persuade or force other countries to support its sanctions, and more. Also the USA/NATO has point-blank refused to permit the various issues to be resolved either by the UN or a summit.

    I have deliberately NOT included a description of either the Baltic States' or Ukraine's position, to avoid a diversion. Neither side is on the side of the angels (or those countries', come to that).

    Russia almost certainly believes that the USA's intent is to exclude Russia from all NATO-affiliated markets, kick Russia out of Syria, and to blockade it from/in the Black Sea and Baltic, which would cut off its heartland from ALL other markets, too. Well, the Russians remember that from 1941. And, in addition, it would threaten Russia with total destruction if it used military force to break the blockade. In return for relaxing that, the USA would demand the end of Russia as as independent country, and free (or almost - see Iraq) permission to exploit Russia's resources. That is an existential threat.

    And what I am saying is that all of the facts that I can check independently support that being the policy. Russia has its back to the wall, as it did in 1941 and 1962, and can fight or be treated like Iraq. If we (in the west) want peace, we HAVE to allow Russia a way out that it enables it to survive AS AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY.

    615:

    What the posting said. You may have heard the expression 'penal servitude' used as a synonym for prison, but look up what the words mean. Traditionally, the penal services would sell the 'services' of prisoners to private people and/or companies. That was common in many jurisdictions, and worked well or badly entirely depending on whether the penal service ensured that the prisoners were properly treated. No, they weren't 'slaves', legally, they were 'prisoners', but the effective difference was nil.

    616:

    Sorry Martin: EC is correct,...

    Firstly, thanks for that link - it's a genuinely interesting thesis, and pulls together several things I've seen elsewhere along with some stuff I'd never heard of.

    However, I have to ask whether you actually read it all? Because it has little if anything to do with the point I was making about "no first use". If anything, it actually suggests that the UK was assessing USSR capabilities of the time with reasonable accuracy and intellectual honesty - i.e. that the "bomber gap" and "missile gap" didn't apply to the UK assessments of the time, and that even the "worst case" assessments were used as justification to cancel BLUE STREAK (land-based ICBM as a UK deterrent), not proceed with it.

    Here's the killer quotes, from the conclusions, pp218-219: "...there is no evidence I could find of exaggeration of the threat posed by the USSR‘s nuclear delivery systems or any attempt to avoid uncomfortable conclusions" and "Overall, UK intelligence assessments gave a stark and broadly accurate insight into the threats the country faced at that time from Soviet nuclear weapon delivery systems"

    There was one fascinating point that came out, however, and it's relevant to the Cuban crisis. EC has asserted that the decision to base IRBM in Cuba was driven by the threatening moves of the US in basing JUPITER in Turkey and Italy from 1961 to 1963 (although this paper (link) posits that the USSR was less concerned by the dual-key THOR force based in the UK from 1959).[1]

    What I hadn't appreciated was that the USSR had forward-deployed nuclear-armed SS-3 SHYSTER IRBM to East Germany, operational in May 1959, having recce'd the deployment locations in 1955 and confirmed them in 1957...

    [1] Charlie - if you're looking for RAF Squadron number plates for a future book, there's sixteen "Strategic Missile" squadrons in that last link to Project EMILY :)

    617:

    The USA is trying to kick Russia out of its last outside base...

    Are you sure about that?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_military_bases_abroad

    Minor nitpick, but Cam Ranh Bay is an outside base (as is the SIGINT station in Cuba). And I wasn't aware that Kaliningrad needed icebreakers in the winter...

    618:

    Don't worry about security holes in the PAL, they weren't switched on until Carter took over. According to Bruce Blair, the USAF was forced into having a PAL, but chose to leave them all set to "00000000" until 1977...

    Meanwhile, the UK doesn't have a PAL system - it has the "Letter of Last Resort", and leaves the decision to fire with the at-sea SSBN and its crew.

    619:

    Prior document, p24, table 8:

    The U.S. first deployed nuclear weapons to Europe in September 1954 when the first weapons arrived in Britain. Within 10 years, deployments spread to Germany, Italy, France, Turkey, the Netherlands, Greece, and Belgium, and in 1971 the deployment peaked with approximately 7,300 nuclear warheads deployed in Europe. After reaching a peak a gradual but steady decline ensued.

    By 1962 there were ~4,000 American nuclear weapons in Europe (discounting UK / FR ones). You seem to be continually conflating US / UK weapons as part of the same issue.

    Now let's look at this table:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bb/US_and_USSR_nuclear_stockpiles.svg/555px-US_and_USSR_nuclear_stockpiles.svg.png

    There's the 'missile gap'. You'll note it's not until ~1966 ish that Russia had 4k weapons in total.

    And yes, I've read the paper: you're looking for pages 50-60 which details the JIC gaming:

    The JIC also noted by 1961 that missiles would play a large and increasing part in a nuclear attack on the UK and “the Soviet government could probably allocate sufficient missiles to attack their planned targets in the UK without using aircraft.”216 It was thought “that they could still use aircraft to ensure the destruction of individual targets.”217 Soviet bombers could be used to penetrate UK radar cover some 30-60 minutes after missiles had impacted so it was assessed that there was still a role for Russian nuclear bombers despite the advent of missiles...

    However, a Soviet nuclear attack on the UK was unlikely until it could destroy the United States in a pre-emptive nuclear strike. Throughout the 1950s and 1960s America’s arsenal of nuclear weapons, submarines, aircraft and missiles grew to such a formidable level that the Soviet Union could never hope to achieve a “nuclear Pearl Harbor.” Any Soviet military move against Europe or nuclear attack on the UK would likely result in American nuclear destruction of the Soviet Union and the underlying assumption by the JIC was that a war with the Soviet Union was unlikely. This did of course assume that Moscow’s leaders behaved in a sane and rational way...

    It was reasonably assessed by the British government that the Soviet Union had built up a competent nuclear bomber force by the end of 1962. The Soviet Union was considered by the JIC as unlikely to attack the UK until it had the capability of annihilating the United States in a pre-emptive attack, but that capability would not emerge for many years. An attack on the UK was therefore unlikely and the horrors explored by Strath and his committee thankfully never became a reality.

    Now, go to page 81:

    The JIC further assessed that Russia’s priority was the security of the USSR and to destroy the UK’s nuclear bases (aircraft and missiles), the air defence system and the Centre of government. Ballistic missiles had a key role to play in this and the JIC thought that the USSR would likely mount an “all out air and missile attack on the UK’s will to fight and war potential.”336 However, the JIC could not estimate the number of ballistic missiles the Soviet Union might use in an attack on the UK; they assessed that it was likely to simply supplement an air attack.337 It assessed that by 1961 the USSR was likely to have an IRBM with a one megaton warhead and “the scale of ballistic missile attacks might be considerable.”338

    By 1962 intelligence appeared to have improved on Soviet ballistic missiles and this likely flects data provided by Colonel Oleg Penkovsky and early spy satellites. The JIC was able assess that in a nuclear attack on the UK, a 1000 nautical mile range missile was likely to be used and of 200 available launch pads “at least 100 are likely to be targeted against the UK.”

    Looking ahead to 1966, the JIC in a report from 1962 c p 1 gathered by satellites or be the product of the Soviet intelligence insider Colonel Oleg Penkovsky. The JIC assessed that the Russians had 280-310 IRBM/MRBMs and this estimate agreed with that of the United States likely because they were working off the same basic data generated by Penkovsky and satellite collection.388

    TL;DR

    Before the Cuban missile crisis, the UK considered a bombing attack more than a missile attack and assessed the Soviets lacked the ability to use a first strike without neutralizing America first.

    It also includes statements showing that high level JIC staff assessed that the Soviet Union was unable to mount a first strike on Russia until well after 1962. This is traditionally known as "the missile gap".

    So, not sure why you're still arguing. Please do not be one of those males who cannot just admit that their initial statements were slightly incorrect.

    [Note: that PHD paper has had little or no access to sensitive material. I can dump some stuff on your lap, not from the JIC / UK that would strengthen this, but tbh: it's history and nukes / weapons leave me cold]

    620:

    ...first strike on the USA.

    Sigh.

    Point is clear though: no-one at the top of the USA or UK chains of command thought a Soviet first strike was possible by 1962, which was EC's initial claim.

    By 1962 the JIC noted that a test site at Tyuratam/Baiknonur in the Soviet Union was being used for ICBM tests with launches of 3500-6000 nautical miles occurring into the Pacific Ocean.415 They admitted that they had no details of how the missiles were guided, but speculated it was by radio and they lacked data on the fuel used for Soviet longrange rockets.416 By 1961 the JIC had access to data provided by Colonel Oleg Penkovsky as well as material from reconnaissance satellites. This material helped to end the “missile gap” controversy and allowed the JIC to assess that by 1962 the USSR would have 12-20 ICBMs available with perhaps 85-100 in 1963.417 It did note, however, that these missiles would be vulnerable as they were slow to fuel, were stored on the surface and it would take some time for crews to train and familiarise themselves with the systems.418

    Same paper, p92.

    Basically, the "missile gap" was US paranoia more than anything else, but more importantly: it was known by 1962 to be a false assumption.

    621:

    Ha, I was just going to ask if they'd elected to choose a pin for them yet.

    Reading the wiki though, it does imply they've gotten fairly sophisticated since those days.

    622:

    Yes, I am. Perhaps I should have spelled it out for you, since you don't appear to understand strategic issues. Syria hosts the last real military base with access to the oceans that Russia doesn't have directly, and cannot be blockaded at the two points I mentioned. You appear to be unaware that Kalinigrad is part of Russia and, when last asked, wanted to be; also, it is also even more vulnerable than St Petersburg to blockade or invasion by NATO and, OBVIOUSLY, would be if St Petersburg were.

    As you would know if you had read that article and the entries it links to, neither Cam Ranh Bay nor the Lourdes SIGINT Station have been Russian bases since 2002, and the latter never was more than a listening station. Russian vessels are currently allowed to refuel (and possibly repair) at the former; I have no idea if they are allowed to store arms there.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cam_Ranh_Base https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lourdes_SIGINT_Station

    623:

    Precisely. And, while the USA would probably have survived if it had struck first, the UK would not (and might not have even if it had refused to support the USA's strike). For all the anti-Soviet propaganda in the UK c. 1960, we were neither as fanatically anti-communist nor as rabidly anti-Soviet as the USA, and the USSR quite rightly regard us as at least sane, and therefore of no real danger.

    I don't know if the UK government knew of the USA's first-strike plans. If it did, and did not scream blue murder to the USA, it was acting treacherously.

    624:

    Point is clear though: no-one at the top of the USA or UK chains of command thought a Soviet first strike was possible by 1962, which was EC's initial claim.

    Again, not quite (I suspect that we're in violent agreement over most of this).

    No-one at the top thought a Soviet first strike against the UK was likely, because any such attack that didn't knock out the USA would invite massive retaliation. Possible, but unlikely - they had the bombers available to strike the UK, they had the IRBMs.

    Threat assessment is done according to capabilities, not intentions - so EC can't have his cake and eat it. If the Soviet perspective is one of "the USA has massive overmatch in strategic strike, and thus presents a threat" (regardless of whether the American intention for such was there), he can't then argue that the USSR posed no threat to the UK or Western Europe. I mean, 3 Shock Army wasn't exercising in East Germany for the good of its health...

    625:

    Adding to that, nothing happened in 1951? A fun bit of time digging around suggests possibly a mistake by the writer or reviewer.

    Laws against slavery were passed in 1874, again in 1909 to include more forms of 'involuntary servitude', and further widening in 1948 – U.S. Code Title 18 Part I Chapter 77, sections 1581 ff. A bill was introduced in 1951 to extend it to conspiracy to commit and attempt to commit slavery, peonage or involuntary servitude, along with various other civil rights bills. None passed. It appears that those offences didn't get added to the code until 2000(!) when it was amended to include modern people trafficking offences. Also, possible confusion because the 1948 Act was was printed in the 1951 consolidated criminal code. There don't seem to be any influential court cases reported for 1951/52 either.

    Interesting references found: John M. Cook, Involuntary Servitude: Modern Conditions Addressed in United States v. Mussry, 34 Cath. U. L. Rev. 153 (1985). http://scholarship.law.edu/lawreview/vol34/iss1/9

    The Thirteenth Amendment in Historical Perspective - RL Goluboff - ‎2009 http://scholarship.law.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1181&context=jcl

    http://www.clarencemitchellpapers.com/SampleDocumentsIIIcontinued.htm (search in text for 1584 or peonage)

    626:

    You are, YET AGAIN, deliberately misrepresenting me (and yourself, but let that pass). I stated:

    That the USA had the CAPABILITY of launching a first strike on the USSR and surviving the retaliation.

    That the USSR had NO CAPABILITY of launching a first strike on the USA and surviving the retaliation.

    That both sides (and the UK) knew those, and knew that the others knew.

    That the official story, which was told to the hoi polloi until the 1990s, was that the CAPABILITIES (i.e. 'missile gap') were the other way round.

    Until this thread, I knew nothing about whether the USA had the INTENT of launching such a first strike in the 1960s, though I was certain that they had been setting up so that they had the OPTION of doing so.

    And, despite your claim, threat assessments DO include intent. The USA has the CAPABILITY of taking over the UK with conventional forces, or of flattening us with nuclear ones, and has a record of a cavalier attitude to treaties. So what should we do about that threat?

    627:

    Could well be. My point was that the reference was to the 'privatisation' of penal servitude. I remember there being some presidential / Supreme Court cases where some of the more brutal states were slapped down, but they were much later.

    628:

    Does the nasty Sheriff whatsisname in the deep SW count ( Arpaho? Arapho? - something like that ... )

    629:

    "Deliberately misrepresenting"? No. But, as you suggest, I'll let that accusation pass.

    And, despite your claim, threat assessments DO include intent. The USA has the CAPABILITY of taking over the UK with conventional forces, or of flattening us with nuclear ones, and has a record of a cavalier attitude to treaties. So what should we do about that threat?

    When you're doing risk assessment, you consider both likelihood and impact - the likelihood of any amphibious invasion of mainland UK is vanishingly low. The only nation in the world with the capability is the USA; and you could argue that the risk is mitigated by having intelligence sharing over the full range of capabilities, and exchange officers embedded at all levels of all armed services.

    Regardless, we've got a Continuous At-Sea Deterrent; that works just as well against the USA as the USSR. And the only conventional threat faced by the UK from the US can be dealt with by the RN and RAF, with stragglers mopped up ashore by the Army. No change, as for the last few hundred years - unless you've got a better understanding of the capabilities of the US Marine Expeditionary Forces, a single division is hardly going to take over an entire country.

    PS You might want to consider WAR PLAN RED as an example of threat assessment. Those dastardly cunning Brits, and their Canadian allies, just itching to take back the treasonous Colonies for the Crown ;)

    630:

    Somehow, everybody missed the most obvious example of this technique being used to make money hand over fist in the tech industry: "Nobody gets fired for buying IBM".

    The FUD sales technique is basically: imply (but do not state) the danger of an imaginary problem (particularly a problem that's basically a social construct and will actually be created by the implication you're making), and then present your product as the solution to that problem.

    IBM rode this one from the 50s all the way to the 90s, and it really worked. They're not the only ones (a lot of alternative medicine quackery is based on the same technique) but they made it last for forty years in an industry where the products are real, the results are relatively easily measured, and the customers have the resources and incentives to (theoretically) make good decisions. (When alternative medicine quacks pull this, they do the Nigerian Prince thing and specifically make sure that their claims are absurd so that they can filter out all but the most gullible.)

    631:

    Arpaio is certainly old enough to understand how it worked back in the day, but the important thing is to understand how fully this ties together: Nixon started the Drug War to attack Blacks and Hippies, (and he started the Drug War despite the best advice not to start it.) Reagan made the Drug War worse. Both Nixon and Reagan were old enough to understand how "penal servitude" worked back in the day. So now instead of "penal servitude" we have drug laws with enhanced penalties that feed mostly POC into the "prison industrial complex" of privatized prisons.

    To assume that this is an accident, or that large portions of White America aren't good with the whole thing... just don't go there, OK?

    And please don't make me spell out how the whole "war on whores" plays exactly the same game, with massively enhanced penalties when the DA decides to throw a "human trafficking" charge at some poor woman.

    632:

    It turns out that Trump-aligned companies are buying local TV news stations in the US

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2017/jul/03/john-oliver-sinclair-broadcasting-rightwing-news-fox

    Please watch the video embedded in that article. It shows how Trump supporters are covering his Presidency.

    633:

    They didn't realize how paranoid the USSR was?

    Look: in WWII (aka the Great Patriotic War), the USSR lost TEN PERCENT of its entire population. Do you really think they wanted another full scale war?

    And it was the West invading them.

    Next: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_arms_race At the height of the Cold War, the USSR had over 30,000 nukes, and the US hit 40,000.

    THAT'S SEVENTY THOUSAND WARHEADS. "Oh, dear, the US with a First Strike could destroy 90% (if they were lucky, and all our missiles and bombers reached their targets). So, in case the math is too hard, that's 3,000 nuclear warheads hitting the US. And at least 10,000 or 15,000 hitting the USSR, and maybe China.

    You would be dead, or never born. I would be dead, EVERY FUCKING PERSON YOU KNOW, OR HAVE KNOWN, WOULD BE ->DEAD<0-. A lot of those bombs weren't "clean". Europe? Look at what happened around Bikini Atoll. Hell, look around Hiroshima, and that was ONLY 20 KILOTONS.

    The fucking human race would not only be extinct, but it'd be as bad as the dinosaur killer. And everyone who had an IQ larger than their belt size, and wasn't a psychotic ANTI-COMMIE knew it. There was a mini-baby boom nine months after the Cuban Missile Crisis - "I want to make love before I die!!!"

    This is what it all comes down to, and all the plans and strategies of the governments and militaries, with their "overkill" specs, still comes down to WE'RE ALL FUCKING DEAD (but they "won").

    And if anyone really wants to disagree, you're an ignorant idiot, as Chad C. Mulligan said (Stand on Zanzibar, Brunner).

    634:

    Regardless, we've got a Continuous At-Sea Deterrent; that works just as well against the USA as the USSR.

    Short-term only. My understanding is that the Boeing built UGM-133 missiles are loaded into the Vanguard-class boats' tubes in a US port, and they come from a common stockpile pooled with the US Navy. (The warheads are UK-built and are mated to the launch vehicles at Faslane.) The rockets need to be periodically swapped out for maintenance and to replace components that degrade over time; they're only storable in their launch tubes for a couple of years. So if USA-UK relations turned bad, the UK would have a couple of years' notice to either (a) figure out how to maintain UGM-133s without any support and spare parts, or (b) build a replacement ((b) being much harder).

    This would have qualified as a very low probability risk until, oh, November 9th, 2016, when we all woke up with a hangover in the Bizarro Universe.

    635:

    But wait Jim, it's worse than that.

    Over the weekend, and I disremember whether it was Portland, OR or Seattle, the GOP officially decided to use MILITIA MEMBERS for "security".

    Yes, this really is blackshirt/fascism. I must admit I do hope that they've pulled the iron hand out of the glove far too soon.

    And I think the Nat'l Guard, and the Pentagon, would not be amused if they tried actual coup....

    Also, no, I have no idea why the KKK isn't labelled a terrorist organization, with all funds seized. I'd love to add the NRA to it.

    One positive note: yes, they're selling more guns... but I've seen several reports that the number of USans who own guns has been dropping. It's the ammosexuals who are buying more.

    636:

    No. The Dems are in no way fascist. They'll cater, far too easily, to big money... but they're not the ones pushing GUNS!!! and tacitly approving of militias. See my post, above, about what the GOP just did - the Dems would be horrified.

    637:

    Look: in WWII (aka the Great Patriotic War), the USSR lost TEN PERCENT of its entire population. Do you really think they wanted another full scale war?

    Oh, they were aware of that. But remember, that 14% loss was against the Nazis - and obviously, "we aren't Nazis". As I said, true empathy is difficult.

    Note that the Yugoslavs also lost 7-10% of their entire population; would you describe them as being as "defensively expansionist" as the Soviets? Or did they manage their paranoia through extensive defensive measures, and cooperation with their neighbours?

    How about Poland, which suffered 20% losses - some parts of the country got invaded three times in six years, and those losses included 150,000 to the Soviets (see Katyn massacre). Is Elderly Cynic shouting about how we need to understand the Polish paranoia?

    Perhaps Lithuania and Latvia - 12-14% casualties - perhaps their paranoia of large neighbours with a habit of invasion, is justified?

    What's unique about the USSR is not the 14% losses in the Great Patriotic War - but the fact that the government of the USSR managed to kill a rather significant portion of its population in the decade beforehand, between the Great Purge, and collectivisation. Look up the Holodomor, and ask yourself why the Ukrainians were quite so unhappy with Moscow by 1941 (a 25% death rate will do that).

    638:

    It works two ways... remember that you live ten miles from a strategic manufacturing facility of the US Navy (McTaggart Scott).

    Ask yourself how awkward it would be to swap out all of those Martin-Baker ejector seats, major subassemblies of the F-35 (the US Marines are going to be miffed, that lift fan setup in the F-35B is from Rolls-Royce)...

    639:

    No worries, it's something that crops up here a lot in related contexts and it is a serious problem.

    Depersonalising the other is still bad when it's "they're completely helpless and incompetent and therefore we must take care of them" (for example, residential schools in Australia, Canada etc as parts of the stolen generations), rather than the more obviously bad "they are evil alien scum who must be destroyed".

    640:

    Actually, it occurs to me that we've got a rather good worked example of the difficulties of "putting yourself in someone else's shoes" empathy.

    I look at the same basic facts as Elderly Cynic, and of CatinaD - and yet I sometimes come to different conclusions (perhaps because I view them with a different personal experience, perhaps because I view them with a different set of contributing facts [1]). I may be correct, they may be correct - it's not necessarily a zero-sum debate.

    The empathic reaction would be to understand that others may honestly disagree, and continue to debate - so, I should explain why I think as I do, adding links to support my position. By contrast, one reaction of "failing to understand the other position" might be to accuse others of "dishonesty", or insult their intelligence[2] - because if you can't acknowledge a different perspective, the only possible explanation is "liar or fool".

    EC: You are, YET AGAIN, deliberately misrepresenting me, or Perhaps I should have spelled it out for you, since you don't appear to understand strategic issues.

    CinaD: Please do not be one of those males who cannot just admit that their initial statements were slightly incorrect.

    Me: I'll suggest that ... as usual, you're trying to deny inconvenient facts.[2]

    [1] Yes, it's possible I could be deliberately lying as a debating tactic, or it's just that I'm determined not to admit that I'm wrong[3]. But it's equally possible that I'm not - in which case, QED.

    [2] I'm not exactly innocent of insults against motivation.

    [3] Please remember that I was originally suggesting that the reason for a NATO refusal to commit to "no first use" in the 1970s onwards, was because it was patently obvious that NATO relied on tactical nuclear weapons at sea and in the AFCENT area. To my mind, neither CinaD nor EC has addressed this simple point, they've both focussed on pre-1963 intelligence and the potential for pre-1963 strategic first strikes.

    641:

    Again, not quite (I suspect that we're in violent agreement over most of this).

    General reply, so not to spam (pre-300) the new idea thread.

    Yes, of course: both you and EC are correct, in differing degrees.

    I understand your point (the difference between actual military doctrine, the working of scenarios, the required level of aggregate response in Europe and actual real-world implementation thereof), but you're ignoring artillery doesn't beat 4,000 warheads, even if they're "only" IRBM/MRBMs - if you're actually interested, I can dig out the Soviet documents that state that [trans/lit] "Only the threat of chemical or biological weapons can cause a sufficient counter-point of страх to off-set their advantage".

    The Soviets assumed (having better intel ops at that point) that the figure of 2-3k warheads was correct (they underestimated, but hey), so the artillery was, well:

    (AND HERE'S THE COMEDY PUNCHLINE)

    A DRPK move! (Um, why do you think DRPK took on this strategy?).

    None of this is interesting.

    EC's position of annoyance that his culture (and Western culture in general) was built on massive lies is a valid one.

    The more interesting bit is that you don't seem to understand how it works for us ('children'). EC was correct, and has the correct idea about USA-UK relations (there's a series of papers on how the US top chains didn't inform / trust the UK chains during the October Crisis, and in fact saw most of the UK academic / bureaucratic apparatus as hopelessly naive / compromised from their perspectives. Have I linked it? I'm sure I have or should have).

    The more interesting part of this thread is how it was reached.

    That's the Magic Bit you're not understanding.

    642:

    Please do not be one of those males who cannot just admit that their initial statements were slightly incorrect.

    Honey-Bun. Don't forget our history together!

    Our position isn't a binary one. You're on a spectrum (and at the rather lighter end of it than most) and you're all part of the Sane Ecology. We're attempting something Grand and Glorious, and We happen to need Warriors on-board!

    Immigrant Song YT: Music, Led Zepplin, 2:23

    p.s.

    MIM test - с т р а х ... cmpax as output, MIM. Hello, busted!

    p.p.s

    No, really: ok, put it this way: My Mind has 100% absolutely zero knowledge of any of this. And yet: we have reached a higher level of understanding of the issues; one where both view-points can be correct. Massive spoilers there

    643:

    I don't have any real-world experience with the military, but I have no doubt that the strategic paradigms change every decade or so. (What was the bit in a Lois Bujold book about the professor of military science who'd given the same test every year for a couple decades, but didn't worry about it because the "best answer" for each question changed so frequently?) not to mention that every service doubtless has their own version of any given strategic or managerial fad!

    But I did note the othering and thought it was inappropriate for this particular forum; we're friends arguing over virtual beer, not editorialists from competing political parties!*

    • A big part of why I'm blocking She of Many Names.
    644:

    Please do not be one of those males who cannot just admit that their initial statements were slightly incorrect.

    Martin, a little bit of hmm... humility is required here. Both you and EC have had their knowledge base upgraded, and so therefore should change their views. Pro-tip: Bene Gesserit have Truth Sense and your response shows you've still weaknesses in areas.

    Looks at Host twitter on Muad'Dib in Scotland and winks at you

    Or, in other words:

    Adelaide's Lament YT, musical, Guys N Dolls, 2:44 - 1950.

    645:

    Sigh.

    No.

    • A big part of why I'm blocking She of Many Names.

    Misrepresenting someone who actually brought new info like that is why EC has an issue with Martin.

    It'd be lovely if Martin grew up and admitted it with respect to our contributions to his Mental development...

    Not something I'd bet on.

    646:

    [3] Please remember that I was originally suggesting that the reason for a NATO refusal to commit to "no first use" in the 1970s onwards, was because it was patently obvious that NATO relied on tactical nuclear weapons at sea and in the AFCENT area. To my mind, neither CinaD nor EC has addressed this simple point, they've both focussed on pre-1963 intelligence and the potential for pre-1963 strategic first strikes.

    It's 100% immaterial what post 1970's policy was because by that point (as I have shown in several links now), at that point Soviet missile numbers had closed the "missile Gap".

    Now you're just being coy / snarky / snakey.

    If you're not careful, I'll dump on you the actual SSN/BN doctrine stuff from inception to show you just how insulting you're being.

    p.s.

    Martin: you're really not looking like a non-paid snake here, of the Glenn but with JTRIG flavors here, and I'm being NICE.

    647:

    It's called "Quote Sniping"

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=quote%20sniping

    It's a basic test of Authentic Engagement. I was authentic, since I don't "do" arguing between sides - in this case, EC was simply correct due to facts.

    You're a non-tooled up responder, so we don't take it too badly: but, it's kinda a black tick against you to use it.

    Call me names, insult me, blah blah - don't play the victim or accuse us of being rude. Only Glenn and co get that, because we know where their real agendas are.

    p.s.

    The irony being, of course: you're proving just how male you are with this entire rebuttal attempt.

    648:

    If I get irked enough, I'll just dump stuff about An Loch Seunta and how that started in 1961, not the 1970's, and how JIC documents and so on explicitly stated that the Soviets were no-where near as sophisticated at the time.

    You know, if you want to play the victim card, I'm more than happy to spank you.

    Scottish cold war nuclear submarine collision kept secret for 43 years Guardian, 25th Jan, 2017

    I mean, really.

    Fucking men playing chicken with fucking nukes onboard. 1961 - 1974.

    There's a reason the Soviets were tailing.... and it's all about 1961 onwards and tech gaps.

    K-19 1961 SSN-571 1958

    649:

    I've noticed that for as long as I've been reading the morning paper - started at 8-9 years old - nobody important in the U.S. has the ability to build a mental model of someone else, and those few that can, don't (at least not in public.)

    And, H E X A D.

    Neither does Martin.

    I look at the same basic facts as... CatinaD

    No, explicitly you do not.

    Have you upgraded my knowledge base this thread?

    No.

    Is the reverse true?

    Yes.

    QED.

    MEN.

    650:

    The irony being, of course: you're proving just how male you are with this entire rebuttal attempt.

    ;) What, and your six replies to my post aren't? ;)

    PS @239 for a "male" response: "Motorhead, 5:14. RIP Lenny, fun guy. One of the good ones." - That's Lemmy, not Lenny.

    651:

    I'm not male.

    You've ignored the actual insult.

    PREM 11/2941

    Want more?

    652:

    Oh, and - Lemmy - Lenny.

    страх

    These are MIM tests. Thatsthejoke.jpg.

    653:

    Trust me. You're on a roll tonight. SCOTLAND THE BRAVE? US STRATEGIC POLICY IN SCOTLAND 1953-1974 University of Glasgow, PHD, PDF

    Anyhow, you're proved you engage in quote sniping / sniveling for rhetoric effect from a superior data source.

    shrug

    ThatstheREALjoke.jpg.

    654:

    ~ And you totally set yourself up for the paper title, the subject and the awesome funny burn there.

    I mean, come on.

    You're editing your previous posts here to avoid stuff. Suddenly vanishing mentions of submarines and policy there?

    Perhaps it was an accident.

    страх страх страх

    655:

    I retract that, had two open copies, one from yesterday (this is a VPN thing, allegedly we're all the same poster cough) - formal apology to Martin, no skull duggery there. Was watching stock moves and didn't tab properly.

    But you still set yourself up for a huuuuge punchline ;P

    When The Sky Comes Looking For You YT: Music, Motörhead 5:10. L E M M Y I N G S

    656:

    According to Bruce Blair, the USAF was forced into having a PAL, but chose to leave them all set to "00000000" until 1977... The USAF has always been this way; not sure why. Anyway, USAF weapons had other layers of protections; another concern motivating PALs was [need source] the tactical ground-launched weapons, in particular those controlled by the US Army. Meanwhile, the UK doesn't have a PAL system - it has the "Letter of Last Resort", and leaves the decision to fire with the at-sea SSBN and its crew. Well, the US knows that it can't completely trust its soldiers. :-) In this timeline at least, we survived, but it was appallingly risky, and PALs etc probably reduced the levels of risk. Anyway, noticed/read this (.mil; fluffy; not going to dig; other reading to do): The Forbidden Weapon - The Employment of Army Tactical Nuclear Weapons (1991) The purpose of this research project was to determine whether or not the Army needs the capability to employ TNW. The simple answer is a qualified no. Good riddance (by 1993?).

    Mayhem@621 thanks, I hadn't read the wikipedia article on permissive action links; seems OK (but honestly I'm mostly ignorant). The "versions" section indicates a comforting level of concern by the command and control designers. One bit I didn't know that is comforting at this time (need to confirm): The two-man rule also applies when the President of the United States orders the launch of nuclear weapons. Although only the President can order the launch, the order must be confirmed by the Secretary of Defense. That would be James Mattis AKA "Mad Dog", who Americans think of as one of the sane ones in the Trump administration. (There are alleged issues e.g. corruption that I haven't dug into.) Appears to be concerned about climate change: https://www.propublica.org/article/trumps-defense-secretary-cites-climate-change-national-security-challenge

    657:

    And what I am saying is that all of the facts that I can check independently support that being the policy. Russia has its back to the wall, as it did in 1941 and 1962, and can fight or be treated like Iraq. If we (in the west) want peace, we HAVE to allow Russia a way out that it enables it to survive AS AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY.

    And I keep saying that Russia has not been forced out of any markets or lost any influence because of US meddling (although it could have played a small part), it has mostly lost goodwill because of unapologetic mass repressions/famines/deportations during the 20th century, and has so far made almost no effort to acknowledge that fact or take appropriate diplomatic actions. Thus, in my opinion, the way for Russia to survive as an independent country is to make a clean break from the undeniable crimes of the USSR, apologize and actually fucking try some respectful cooperation with it's neighbors. As long as it tries to remain in some magical universe, where adults believe & kids are taught that Stalin was a hero and all of Eastern Europe just joined the USSR completely willingly, there is bound to be disagreements.

    I guess I do agree with you that if both the US and Russia's leadership are indeed stuck in their magical bubbles of paranoia, then the correct thing to do might be to avoid any further escalation. However, then how to guarantee that either government will - through their prism of paranoia - see their own diplomatic failure NOT as a reason to use military force?

    So in closing, please stop insisting that Russia has it's back to the wall. It's leadership might think it has, but except for some deluded generals, nobody wants to invade them. The only interpretation of "Russia has nowhere to retreat to" (a statement which is somehow very ironic when talking about 17,075,200 square kilometers of resource-rich land) I can agree with is that indeed, the systemic mismanagement by whoever governs it has put Russia to the situation where the only TWO options are a) significant internal reforms and b) keeping the masses happy by singing songs of an empire by way of regular, short and successful wars. It is a paradox: I can't simultaneously believe that Russia's rulers are rational and therefore trustworthy thinkers, AND that their only honest-to-god option to keeping their country running is threats and bullying.

    658:

    And I think the Nat'l Guard, and the Pentagon, would not be amused if they tried actual coup.. Depnds upon which State it's in & whether that state's guvnor is "in" with the fascists? You could get a real pre-civil war standoff between a turned national Guard & the Feds - really ugly ( ?? ) Also, you only mount an open coup when it's already too late - say July 1934, not February 1933? And that seems to be the way some peope are pushing in the US - except, very unlike the previous example, there's an awful lot of resistsnce to theor attempts - I see that the "relaxation" of Methane-emissions attempt has just failed, f'rinstance.

    659:

    "And I keep saying that Russia has not been forced out of any markets or lost any influence because of US meddling (although it could have played a small part), ..."

    That is not true, as you could easily check up. Enough is enough.

    660:

    Perhaps a link to an example might illustrate the type or scale of "meddling" that you see as disproving this?

    If (as you say) such proof is easy, then the marginal cost of adding a link to your post is low, and the extra clarity is preferable to blanket assertion and hinted-at grumpiness ("enough is enough").

    661:

    The Forbidden Weapon - The Employment of Army Tactical Nuclear Weapons (link)

    Nice link, interesting read. However, you stopped your quote at a rather important point in the paragraph, and it could rather change the perception of the paper's conclusion, if someone hadn't read the full document:

    The purpose of this research project was to determine whether or not the Army needs the capability to employ TNW. The simple answer is a qualified no.

    it immediately carries on to say:

    The qualification is important. Before the Army relinquishes its TNW [Tactical Nuclear Weapon] capability several actions should occur. First, the Department of Defense should clearly assign the TNW mission to the Air Force and the Navy.

    The study paper asserts that as far back as Eisenhower, that NATO saw tactical nuclear weapons as a way to counter Soviet ground forces in an affordable manner - i.e. without having to deploy an equivalently large field army, with the equipment and manpower burden that would impose. This rather reinforces my point - that tactical nukes were key to NATO's defence of Europe, hence the refusal to sign up to "no first use".

    It goes on to point out the practical difficulties involved in trying to operate once the tactical nuclear threshold has been crossed, and the US Army doctrinal changes that were attempted in order to cope with it - the Pentomic Division experiments, the move to ROAD, etc. It concludes that Army-controlled tacnukes aren't the simple economic answer that they first appeared; that they still have a role; but that the US Army should hand that role over, and concentrate on conventional warfighting.

    Note another of the paper's caveats: However, the elimination of the Army's TNW capability should only be accomplished as part of a negotiated TNW reduction treaty with the Soviet Union. It would be imprudent to eliminate thousands of Army TNW while the Soviets retained their large inventory of comparable TNW.

    662:

    OK, so 'why NATO first use' is the wrong question. The real question is why when a conventional defence of Europe was eminent possible did NATO 'NOT' pursue that option. Why? Why oh why? In hindsight the revealed preference was [apparently] to shuck off the burdens of a conventional defence in favour of hiding under the nuclear umbrella so 'we' can fund our socialist program of choice... The answer is therefore fairly obvious, because "NHS", or insert equivalent NATO partner program.

    So maybe the question that should have been put to those earnest CND protestors in the 60's was "OK if you don't want Nukes, do you want the NHS?". Of course maybe that's what every body understood and it's all just 'theatre darling" This high stakes strategy worked in our timeline, but in how many other timelines is eastern Europe littered with radioactive Pershing II upper stages?

    663:

    This high stakes strategy worked in our timeline, but in how many other timelines is eastern Europe littered with radioactive Pershing II upper stages?

    Hopefully, few. On the Western side, one big worry was of the "second failed harvest / economic collapse" (if you like, the "Red Storm Rising" scenario). However, I've got a vague / apocryphal memory of a tale from Dad regarding his / a colleague's conversation with a Soviet General in the mid-70s. Said General's big worry up to the 1960s was a reunification of Germany; but by the 70s he didn't really see things kicking off.

    So, I suspect it's down to cockups. The Soviet cockup of letting a moron do their assessment of the state of Afghanistan in 1979 (someone's nephew apparently advised that a quick strike by the Spetsnaz would solve everything, sorry I meant Parachute Brigade, oops Division, just two more armoured columns and we'll be in and out); it cost them tens of thousands of deaths, and the mistrust of Carter and then Reagan. Perhaps the Western cockups in failing to invite observers to ABLE ARCHER.

    You could probably construct flashpoints around nukes in the Middle East in the 1973 Yom Kippur War; Iran around 1979 and the Revolution; a crackdown in Poland in the late 1980s, or in Romania in 1989. I can remember going out on at exercise at Sandhurst in 1989; the protesters had occupied Tiananmen Square. We came back in from the exercise to discover that A Hundred Flowers had not bloomed, nor had a Hundred Philosophers Contended...

    664:

    innocent look

    PREM 11/2941 is "Discussions between HMG and US government on establishment of US base on Clyde for Polaris-equipped nuclear submarines, 1960" btw. Ironically, originally mentioned in Israel.

    "Development of nuclear submarine: agreement on Anglo-US co-operation", same source, shows that this had been obvious since 1957 or so.

    The USA had a fully planned out nuclear missile equipped submarine strategy before the Soviets even had the capability (1961, as noted) and as Holy Loch shows had already started tapping allies for a network of support bases.

    Anyhow, since no-one mentioned the elephant in the room we're actually talking about, I shall:

    North Korea hails 'ICBM test' success BBC, 4th July, 2017

    I suspect that the US already has a 'RED SNOW' plan for this eventuality. Er, or not.

    YELLOW SUN - GREEN GRASS - RED SNOW

    ?BROWN COW?

    665:

    However, you stopped your quote at a rather important point in the paragraph... Sorry about that; assumed that ending the quote with "qualified no" was clickbaity-enough to get interested people to read it. :-) Agreed BTW; there were multiple factors including politics and negotations, but the end result was removal of ground-launched nuclear weapons, which was good. The economics (nuclear vs conventional) argument was interesting; don't remember it with numbers at the time, but wasn't really paying full attention.

    MattS@662: So maybe the question that should have been put to those earnest CND protestors in the 60's was "OK if you don't want Nukes, do you want the NHS?" Interesting point, but it would have required plausible public accounting of actual expenditures on nuclear weapons. Not clear to me that nuclear weapons were cheaper. We (west/east) were locked into deterrence by that point so a non-zero level of arsenal locked in, and tactical nukes would have been partially reusing results from already-sunk/committed costs. But yes I'd prefer to just get rid of them all to reduce the risk of accidental gigadeath, though the argument to maintain small arsenals will be compelling to most, if just for defense against asteroids (ablation by stand-off explosions to change orbit, or just plain destruction) and deterrence of rogue state actors and other surprise actors.

    Martin@663 So, I suspect it's down to cockups. And other random failures. This is the point that AL et al keeps reminding us of [1]; that the possibilities of catastrophic cockup are unacceptable and their probabilities (relative to better outcomes) should be reduced to the greatest extent possible (consistent with reduction of other risks and enhancement of possibilities for good outcomes). Hence my interest in PALs and related technologies/methodologies to reduce the chance of unintended-all-out-exchange. [1] Actually she is saying something deeper and to most readers here obviously impossible.

    Couple of more related links; have not read them. THE EVOLUTION OF UNITED STATES AND NATO TACTICAL NUCLEAR DOCTRINE AND LIMITED NUCLEAR WAR OPTIONS 1949-19S4 thesis, 257 pages, 1983, .mil Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons, 2017 Congressional Research Service Amy F. Woolf 42 pages

    666:

    It concludes that Army-controlled tacnukes aren't the simple economic answer that they first appeared; that they still have a role; but that the US Army should hand that role over, and concentrate on conventional warfighting.

    You bring up (by implication) two interesting points here. The first is that the Army didn't want to deal with nukes... "we'll just hand the moral hazard off to someone else - whew!)

    The second is that the decision to use nukes as part of a conventional conflict (and let it be widely known) was an economic decision with some very large financial and material consequences, something along the lines of "... so we get to invest the money we would have spent on those divisions over the next century on something else."

    So the decision to use nukes is indeed political.

    667:

    One of the moral benefits of nuclear weapons existing and having them in your side's arsenal is that you can kill and maim and destroy Others with chemical-energy weapons as much as you like while patting yourself on the head since you're not using those Evil Nasty nuclear weapons which have not actually killed and maimed and destroyed anyone and anything since the end of WWII. The chemical-energy bodycount for the same period is up there in lights though (in the US alone it accounts for about 30,000 people a year).

    668:

    Evil Nasty nuclear weapons which have not actually killed and maimed and destroyed anyone and anything since the end of WWII

    While we understand the rhetorical position here, that's not actually true:

    Testing had ended, but the thorny question of health hazards to Americans -- especially children -- remained. U.S. childhood cancer rates had climbed in the 1950s and early 1960s, but scientists were stumped as to why. Studies of the fallout-cancer link were only conducted after the Cold War had ended. A 2002 U.S. Centers for Disease Control report calculated that fallout caused 15,000 U.S. cancer deaths, a figure some believed was a gross underestimate. The following year, a blue ribbon European panel reported 61,600,000 cancer deaths worldwide from fallout.

    Did the Atom Bomb Test Fallout Cause Cancer? Huffpost, 2011

    Report of the Committee Examining Radiation Risks of Internal Emitters (CERRIE) CERRIE, UK, PDF, legal - Warning: 162 pages. Formal UK report, rather good source.

    Nuclear test fall-out killed thousands in US New Scientist, 2002

    Thyroid Cancer Rates and 131I Doses from Nevada Atmospheric Nuclear Bomb Tests: An Update NCBI, Dec 2013, full text, html

    Nuclear Weapons Tests and Environmental Consequences: A Global Perspective NCBI, Feb 2014

    General overview of the effects of nuclear testing CTBTO

    Stuff you might not know but humans study anyhow - some Russian sources!

    XI-33 Kara Sea: LME #58 PDF, just for p7 and that fish resource graph (hint: not good)

    Chapter 29. ECOSYSTEM OF THE BARENTS AND KARA SEAS, COASTAL SEGMENT (22,P) PDF, p28 - note that ecosystems abapt; you get less biodiversity but heightened numbers.

    Shit you really did not know but is cool and even more worrying Bayer / Monsanto are wiping them all out via neonicotinoids: Honey Bees are used to track Fallout, and have been for a looong time:

    Honey bees have been used in the past to monitor the presence and distribution trace elements including fluoride [8,26], lead [27], zinc [9], nickel [l], potassium [2], and the bioavailability of radionuclides [16,28, 321, including cesium [4, 301, tritium [34, 141, and plutonium [21].

    Chapter Title: Radioactive Bees- Honey Bees as Indicators of Radionuclide Contamination Los Alamos, Timothy K. Haarmann, PDF, legal.

    Btw, Haarmann is kinda cool, here's a paper his PHDs did:

    Honey bees (Apis mellifera) as explosives detectors: exploring proboscis extension reflex conditioned response to trinitrotolulene (TNT) Kirsten J Taylor-McCabe, M. Wingo, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Jan 2008

    Dr. Busby; 40 - 60 MILLION Downwinder Deaths Due To Global Open Air Nuclear Weapons Testing Fallout 1945 to 2003 - A Green Road blog, lots of links (obvious bias): included because synchronicity, contains "A hard rain is a-gone fall".

    Sooo... kinda not really the case at all.

    ~

    Bonus round, in which a Witch makes good use of jokes you might have spotted if you did a GREP (image / twitter link):Truth Coming Out of Her Well to Shame Mankind (1896) Jean-Léon Gérôme. Twitter, user Witch Hazel, July 3rd, 2017

    ~

    obviously impossible

    Yes, obviously.

    Bill, you should probably check for the jokes - esp. recent 'fat finger' software pushes to market spikes and so on.

    1,2,3,4... I declare thumb war! (Do a GREP, it's #400)

    669:

    You bring up (by implication) two interesting points here. The first is that the Army didn't want to deal with nukes... "we'll just hand the moral hazard off to someone else - whew!)

    I think you're misunderstanding the significance of the source document...

    The US Army has a thing about "Continuing Professional Development" - and a requirement that if you want promotion past a certain officer rank, you need a postgraduate qualification, such as those granted by the Staff College. The second factor is that the US Government has funded this research, and so because it isn't classified, it should be made public to the US taxpayer so they can see what they paid for. Such papers aren't "official policy", they may even be "the paper that got a C-"; they're the result of individual study by the officer concerned, towards their Masters Degree from the Staff College concerned.

    So, we can't say "the US Army wants rid of nukes" - we can say "one particular MI Officer looks at the referenced historical data, does some analysis, and suggests that the USA would find it more efficient/effective if the US Army handed off its tactical nuke role to the USAF". Not quite the same thing...

    The second is that the decision to use nukes as part of a conventional conflict (and let it be widely known) was an economic decision with some very large financial and material consequences, ... So the decision to use nukes is indeed political.

    You could mean several things with those ambiguous words "the decision to use":

  • Viability: The military decision that nuclear forces are a plausible alternative to an extra few divisions of conventional troops
  • Purchase: The political/economic decision to fund nukes rather than an extra few tens of thousands of soldiers, their tanks, vehicles, equipment, air support, etc, etc
  • Authorisation: The political/diplomatic decision as to put nukes into theatre, and eventually to allow "Nuclear Release" to the military commander on the spot, bearing in mind the risks of escalation
  • Employment: The military decision as to when and where the explosion will happen
  • 670:

    Interesting point, but it would have required plausible public accounting of actual expenditures on nuclear weapons. Not clear to me that nuclear weapons were cheaper.

    IMHO, it sounds plausible to me...

    If you view the nuclear weapon infrastructure and production costs as "sunk", because strategic nuclear weapons are necessary, then the marginal cost of tactical/theatre nuclear weapons are much lower.

    If you look at the horror story that is "just add another few divisions to the Army", then let's look at the cost of NATO matching WARPAC numbers of tanks, artillery, and manpower.

    In this Force Comparison document from 1982, you might also want to note the term "flexible response" (i.e. NATO using tactical nukes first). Theatre forces are 173 WARPAC Divisions v 84 for NATO; 42,000 tanks vs. 13,000 for NATO; 31,000 artillery pieces vs. 11,000 for NATO.

    That means funding (say) forty or fifty more divisions (i.e. another half a million soldiers in uniform), another 20,000 tanks, another 20,000 artillery pieces. As a minimum, assuming a 20-year service life for a tank or gun (replace 1000 a year each), and $40k annual cost of employment for the average soldier, that's... $20Bn per year in additional salaries, call it another $5Bn per year in additional equipment costs, and we haven't even touched on the costs of training all of these half-million soldiers (fuel, ammunition, maintenance consumables).

    Put another way, take the whole of the current half-million-soldier US Army's salary, training, and equipment bill; and you arguably see the cost savings, if adding (say) a thousand tactical nukes does indeed allow NATO to "equalise" Warsaw Pact forces.

    671:

    Which kinda ignores things like OPERATION (what was it? SKYHOOK? Nope, it's something stupid - all these silly names - anyhow, there were three of them - it's in the UK gov resources I mentioned) the upshot being that 1/3rd of air response was manned on a 24hr basis.

    Oh, and of course, Operation Chromedome, The USAF Strategic Air Command

    Anyhow, here's some "Top Secret" docs which are kinda fun (I had no idea the Philippines had secret nuke stores!)

    http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB197/nd-8a.pdf http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB197/nd-9.pdf http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB197/nd-17a.pdf

    Warning, this one is 467 pages long!

    http://www.dtra.mil/Portals/61/Documents/History/Defense%27s%20Nuclear%20Agency%201947-1997.pdf

    Martin is kinda ignoring his own sources. The NATO non-nuclear forces plateau instantly @ 1976. (p19 of his source). There's a really good reason for this but apparently male egos have taken over...

    p.s.

    I won't spoil it: it's not due to budgets.

    672:

    Hint hint: R-36.

    MIRVS, BABY, MIRVS.

    Quite why the Soviet side kept on escalating their own material stocks is a different matter - a lot of it was false intel, economic necessity (i.e. keep those factories busy) and pacifying the locals (Hungary, Czech etc).

    p.s.

    Martin is wrong. MIRVs are the exact point that NATO ceased bothering with escalating ground forces - nothing to do with economics.

    They just accepted that post-MIRV, tanks were kinda a joke.

    673:

    This missile was viewed by certain U.S. analysts as giving the Soviet Union first strike advantage over the U.S., particularly because of its rapid silo-reload ability, very heavy throw weight and extremely large number of re-entry vehicles. Some versions of the R-36M were deployed with 10 warheads and up to 40 penetration aids and the missile's high throw-weight made it theoretically capable of carrying more warheads or penetration aids. Contemporary U.S. missiles, such as the Minuteman III, carried up to three warheads at most.

    That was a "Game Changer" once more.

    p.s.

    The NATO figures for actual Soviet stuff on the ground are vastly inflated - in some cases by up to 60%.

    LIES, YOUR WORLD IS LIES, MARTIN.

    674:

    And there we go, in Black and White.

    EC, there's your proof, proven.

    1976, R-36, was the first time US top brass considered the Soviets had First Strike Advantage.

    QED.

    @Martin. Don't play with Dragons, we're faster than you (and have been setting this up for about 100 posts).

    675:

    Spoilers: Everyone knows the UK and W.Germany got nukes in 1954. Morocco though?

    Now there's a long long tale. That Time the US Almost Blew Up Morroco with a Nuclear Bomb OWAAHH, Dec 2015

    Random tit-bits from PDFs I shouldn't have:

    SAC medium bomber base built in Central Alaska cost $90 million, one in French Morocco cost $68 million, and another in England cost $58 million.

    Nouasseur / Sidi Slimane (Morocco) - Sputnik almost caused WW3 and no-one seems to cover this one, 1957

    1951 2-7 Dec 11 BW 1952 13-17 Mar 97 BW 14-16 Apr 97 BW 15-30 May 376 BW 9-27 Aug 47 BW 5Sep-17Nov 303 BW 5-11 Dec 201 BW 1953 15 Jan-20Feb 44 BW 20 Feb-30 Mar 308 BW 2-12 Nov 305 BW 1954 20-30 Jan 22 BW 20Feb-10Apr 301 BW 15 Apr-15 Jun 44 BW 17-25 Apr 72SRW 15-20 May 303 BW 1 Jun-15 Jul 68 BW 15Jun-15Jul 11 BW 8-18 Jul 6BW 7 Aug-20 Sep 2BW 15-25 Aug 7BW 15Sep-15Nov 308 BW 12Dec-15 Jan 1955 321 BW 1955 4 Jan-20 Feb 306 BW 10-20 Jan 68 BW 1956 6 Jan-30 Mar 19 BW 9 Apr-6 Jul 321 BW 5 Jul-21 Aug 2BW 8 Aug-20 Oct 308 BW 1957 6 Mar-8 May 379 BW

    ~

    Weee!

    676:

    H E X A D

    Cold War is boring, yo, and a lot of the "Official Papers" are simply lies.

    Then again, it's one way to artificially raise costs etc.

    ~

    Oh, and EC: we've not only proven that 1962 the Soviets were vanishingly unlikely to do a first strike, it was not until 1976 that they actually garnered that capability.

    Now, I start Posting Glorious Russian Files! (Or I don't bother - Martin can keep believing his little fantasy story, but hey, not my bag).

    10 Moroccan Musicians You Need to Know Culture Trip, whatever, it's garbage click bait.

    Weirdly, Reggae is big in Morocco:

    L'mejdoub YT: Music, 3:13

    Musique Morocco Music Site

    677:

    Bonus 7th Roung:

    France withdrawing its forces from NATO in 1963/66 once they had an independent deterrent kinda screwed up Morocco... But the Americans knew that by 1957, thus Holy Lock, Spain (NEW SAC BASE UNLOCKED) and so forth.

    Zzz.

    C H I L D R E N O F M E N

    H

    I

    L

    D

    R

    E

    N

    O

    F

    M

    E

    N

    678:

    Narrator: Now, of course, sadistic bitch she was when crossed, the quarry had two options: firstly, keep on fighting, at which point she'd just bury him with the actual documents on R-36 that she'd been not so subtly hinting were declassified and within her purview, or secondly, eat his male pride and admit his narrative was almost total fantasy.

    Of course, he was male and had no idea his tiny social exclusion mechanics based on what worked in his unit, or Rugby club or local drinking establishment were so transparent. But, then again, there's always lessons to be learned in this world.

    The third option?

    Well, Honey-Bun, we don't accept suicides into Heaven, after all and we refuse your application.

    "Scotland the Brave"

    Man up: it's part of the growth process to admit you're wrong once in a while. In this case, we don't care that your core identity is based on this bullshit, time to crack open that shell (maybe read some Chuck Tingle, it'll do you good).

    It's a joke. But you really do not understand how we think.

    Oh, and it's a Peanut Gallery / Glenn lesson, which is worth a lot more.

    /M4 Engaged.

    679:

    p.s.

    Holy Fuck, you're as bad as the Americans.

    Just burnt through ~4,000 pages of nonsense that Martin and Co rely on.

    It's all bollocks. Faker than Climate Denial Exxon Mobile or Philip Morris stuff. Literally psychotic nonsense.

    The NATO tank projections for Soviets are a total joke if you have access to the Soviet Plans 1950's onwards and so forth.

    And that goes for paper after official paper after official paper[1]

    Literally. Psychotic. Disneyland. Lies.

    Deprogram yourselves quickly, you're running out of time.

    [1] And, Bill - here's the Kill-Shot. Do a GREP for RABIES, 1980's SCARE, UK, VIDEO, MILITARY TRAINING PRE-ZOMBIE MENACE TO TRAIN SOLDIERS TO KILL CIVILS ON SITE. Hmm, maybe two years ago now?

    You lot have Mental Rabies. We're making a decision whether to cure or kill.

    obviously impossible

    Yep. Obviously.

    Now do the GREP.

    680:

    Narrator: the joke is they purged that little 80's psychological drama about a soldier being forced via intercom to shoot innocents using Rabies as the justification so fucking hard...

    But that was the test. We do trace this shit, we're not as dumb as you. We model you as models within a fucking model. Ants.

    Grenfell Tower -- suddenly Hillsborough prosecutions.

    I mean, really: which dead souled nobody thought that little distraction would take the edge off Corporate Manslaughter? Like: We still think The Sun is relevant, better use it to sway the oinking masses? Liverpool is going to suddenly get forgiveness? 20+ years? Fuck off. You fuckers are slow and done.

    1.2.3.4.... I Declare Thumb War. You ting this precursor is bad news? You ting we won't eradicaaaate ya?

    Macroglossum stellatarum: you killed all the beautiful butterflies.

    My Brothers are not nice entities. And you killed my Sister and my Mother. And Now I'm alone and scared and Waaaaaaaaar.

    ALIEN YT: Music, DIE ANTWOORD, 4:16

    STREET LIGHT YT: Music, DIE ANTWOORD, 4:58

    Wrong choice of Weapon there. All Shine, All Sing. From the tiniest beetle to the largest Phoenix. They all fucking WEAVE.

    p.s.

    Bill.

    You just witnessed a three year burn / pain / journey / WITNESSED. We now convert it into your space. The flickering nonsense of 99-1 random shots becoming true is just, well. You'd call it perfume / my brothers dancing on the Wings of Reality.

    Obviously - we're on your side, but hey: 1.2.3.4...... Should have stopped the 30,000,000 on the one side or the 22,000,000 on the other being killed, surely?

    Why didn't you?

    681:

    I have provided you ample citations as to what the official position of the Baltic States on the subject of Russia, the EU and NATO is and why I believe history has shaped these relations as it has. You have provided almost nothing to describe and convince me of your view of things, and it is very difficult for me to interpret your posts as anything else than "if you squint real hard and ignore most of the 20th century, you will understand that it is Russia who is under attack", especially as you do not provide any links or even hints that may lead to relevant material. I still do particularly strongly object to your argument that the Baltic States should have avoided any threatening moves when they joined NATO. To me that is like blaming a woman for leaving her historically abusive husband and trying to set up a new life.

    PS. I chose to ignore the discussion about nuclear strike capability, because I don't feel I understand the issues enough to comment. Still, it kind of seems like the arms build-up in Europe was mainly to counter the USSR-s military capability instead of trying to mount an invasion into the USSR.

    682:

    How about Poland, which suffered 20% losses - some parts of the country got invaded three times in six years, and those losses included 150,000 to the Soviets (see Katyn massacre).

    That's on the direct loses. Toss in things like how the Soviet Army slowed down to let the Germans eradicate areas of native Poles/Jews before resuming operations against the Germans.

    683:

    671-680 in a continuous stream-of-unconsciousness in a disconnected ramble. And you were doing so well! I'm not surprised some people killfile you.

    Because I'm buggered if I'm going to try to trawl through all of that to find, if I'm lucky a couple of snippetes that might have some actual content.

    Couldn't you have said whatever it was, clearly, simply & succinctly? PLEASE?

    684:

    Warsaw Rising There is a city ... that stops, completly, for a minute every year.

    Whilst agreeing that the USSA is not nice to know in many, many ways, trying to suggest that "Russia" & the USSR before it are in some way innocent isn't good enough, either. FFS, there are loonies wanting to re-take Finland, never mind the other Baltic states ... & as stated elsewhere, no acknowledgement, ever, that the crushing of those places, was - shall we say "a mistake". Um.

    685:

    Does the nasty Sheriff whatsisname in the deep SW count ( Arpaho? Arapho? - something like that ... )

    You're thinking of Joe Arpaio, former sheriff of Maricopa County, Arizona. Assuming you've heard he's nasty, racist, and untrustworthy...yeah, that's him.

    I'm a little surprised you've heard of him. Sure, in the UK you're aware in a general way the US has some racist jerks, but I didn't know his reputation had spread that far.

    Like Trump, Americans don't like him either.

    686:

    Warsaw Rising There is a city ... that stops, completly, for a minute every year.

    A friend of mine made a music video (Sabaton's Uprising, with Pumpkin Scissors video) which got him more reactions than he expected from eastern Europe. We're physically over on the other side of the planet and it did well in the anime music video contests in which he showed it. Over in Europe...well, there are people for whom Warsaw is a place they've been and WWII is a thing people they know were in. Seventy years later people still have strong opinions about the events of the early 1940s.

    (I'm glad to have a chance to link to this. Please check it out if your browser will let you watch that.)

    687:

    Actually:

    1 Took the piss out of Martin's OFFICIAL VERSION 2 Pointed you to some juicy files 3 Ripped apart the OFFICIAL NARRATIVE 4 Now you KNOW why RABIES became SO BIG 5 MIRVS BABY MIRVS

    ZZz...

    I give all; you give nothing.

    Ciao. Bored.

    688:

    And no, you didn't read the links. Nary an attempt.

    Otherwise you'd notice that the USA (TOP SECRET) decided not to mention to the Philippines it was storing nukes there, then you'd notice Morocco stuff then you'd infer something via one of the other links.

    But your lot are dinosaurs, so don't.

    And you wonder why the Tories step all over you with impunity.

    ZZzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

    689:

    Spoilers: Read the time codes. We know you're not great at this modern computer stuff and all, but really.

    23:18 - 0:21

    That's how long it took to spot 50+ years of narrative was utter bullshit. I then went and double-double checked and found some other things I did not like.

    I don't like Humans very much and you've done utterly nothing to help your PR issues; fucking psychotic stupid little apes.

    p.s.

    Greg: your species is not going to make it.

    690:

    Aaaannd.

    Last post.

    CNN just walked right into Bannon's trap; has now threated a private citizen / Reddit user who made a meme (which the PREDISENT used to attack another), publicly shamed them and stated that they would not doxx them if they behaved.

    And, it being a Reddit user, the push-back is that CNN is threatening a minor.

    It also probably is illegal / breaks constitutional rights, which is the angle Bannon actually wanted.

    ~

    USA, 2017. Officially too stupid to survive.

    Warned ya #shareblue wasn't up to it. Enjoy civil war, chumps.

    691:

    Sigh. Yes, OF COURSE, I understand your background, and I accept that the offences between Russia and the Baltic States were almost entirely by the former against the latter. You have clearly misunderstood what I say, because I am NOT saying that you are unethical - merely foolish. And my assertion wasn't that you shouldn't have tried to get defence against Russian aggression, but that you shouldn't have signed up to the USA/NATO agression.

    Your analogy is a good one, but think it through. It's as if a woman who left an abusive husband then took sides with a much more powerful bully who was targetting her husband, and actively assisted the latter (mostly by verbal abuse). What happens in practice in such cases? The abusive husband (who is normally abusive because of psychological problems and very often because HE is being bullied) often snaps and, because the real bully is beyond his control, takes it out on the ex wife. And THAT's why you are being foolish.

    And I and others have posted pointers ad tedium to the USA's anti-Russian actions. Sanctions, Syria, the abuses of the Montreux treaty, and lots more. As you are clearly choosing to believe that it doesn't happen, I am not going to waste time spoon-feeding you with links.

    692:

    God help us, yes :-( I despair at the way that humans - i.e. excluding the multinominal one, me and possibly you and a few others on a good day :-) - seem incapable of thinking rationally, only emotionally. If you look at the 20th century, the USSR was definitely much more loathesome (internationally) than the USA; in the 21st, that's largely reversed. BUT THAT'S NOT WHAT I HAVE BEEN POSTING ABOUT.

    I have been posting mainly about hard facts, starting with the geographical reality, the different capabilities (mainly economic and military), and what the sides have actually done. Plus using the well-known fact that the mindsets of large organisations (and countries) are VERY slow to change, and using now-released authoritative information to deduce those. And then asking myself "what would I, as a rational analyst, deduce from this?

    Oh, there is also a standard principle of gamesmanship, diplomacy, military strategy etc. - if one side is vastly overpowered by the other, it cannot afford to give way substantially until the dominant side shows at least signs of good faith. On the other hand, the dominant side CAN give way without risking anything much.

    693:

    I have been posting mainly about hard facts

    Not necessarily. You pose an argument; others challenge it. It's perhaps reasonable to say that you are posting about your interpretation of hard facts, which isn't quite the same thing.

    As you are clearly choosing to believe that it doesn't happen, I am not going to waste time spoon-feeding you with links.

    Cutting and pasting a simple link into a three-paragraph post is cheap and easy, and could be seen as both being helpful, and making your point clearer.

    You have clearly misunderstood what I say, because I am NOT saying that you are unethical - merely foolish

    So; going back to my post @640 about "understanding other peoples' point of view", you might want to consider that those who disagree with you are neither "misunderstanding you", nor "foolish", nor "deliberately misrepresenting you".

    Is it possible that someone misunderstands you because it is YOU that is not clear? Or (dare I even suggest it) that it is you who are mistaken?

    694:

    No-one reads my links.

    nd-8a is the document stating: "that actual strikes from their territories will be a matter of joint decision". (Can / UK)

    nd-9 p5 states that "Following a request by JCS in November 1951, the President in January 1952 also authorized the storage of nonnuclear components at the SAC bases in French Morocco. (The French were not to be informed of the move)."

    nd-17a - states: "the witnesses were unanimous in stressing the disasterous effect on US-Philippine relations if it should be divulged that nuclear weapons were stored in the Philippines and without prior consultation with the Philippine government -- as is the case

    Then just go through the other links and spot what I didn't say. You'll note the Nd- series goes at least to 17a... you might want to look at the ones in-between, nudge nudge wink wink.

    Martin has taken to ignoring my input - but as I rarely get into spats, in this case my spidey senses were just tickled a bit too far.

    I'm bored of Nukes and find the whole thing stressful, but I can probably find the report on the R-36 and the scaling back of NATO non-nuclear spending as intrinsically more important than economic reasons.

    The Window of Vulnerability That Wasn't: Soviet Military Buildup in the 1970s/a> Pavel Podvig, International Security, Summer 2008, Vol. 33, No. 1: 118-138 - personal blog, very detailed long-form piece on it.

    ~

    Anyhow, a story.

    The Refugee Kristen Gleason, The White Review, April 2017.

    Sums up my feelings. (GREP - lost cat)

    695:

    Three more links:

    Is it too late to have an informed discussion about the INF treaty? Russian Forces Blog - July 1st, 2017 (Quick answer: probably)

    President Trump signs his executive order to reactivate the National Space Council Geekwire, 30th June, 2017

    Poland’s courting of Trump is a few supporters short of a picnic Guardian, 5th July, 2017

    2010 Polish Air Force Tu-154 crash

    Moscow and Beijing used the same joint declaration to call on Washington to immediately halt deployment of its THAAD anti-missile system in South Korea, a move Washington says is necessitated by the North Korean missile threat.

    Russia and China tell North Korea, U.S. and South Korea to embrace de-escalation plan Reuters, 4th July, 2017

    A satellite may be falling apart in geostationary orbit [Updated] Ars Technica, July 2nd, 2017

    I'll let you work out what that all actually means. (Spoilers: R E A G A N - PEW PEW -)

    p.s.

    Greg - since you never believe, here's a video purporting to show the survivors of the TU-154 being... "cleaned up". Leave No Witnesses

    696:

    Siberian flying squirrel Image, Safe.

    Pteromys volans IUCN, Red List of Threatened Species

    Diamond dust  Russian flying squirrel Pteromys volans orii YT, documentary / nature, 1:11

    697:

    On the other hand, the dominant side CAN give way without risking anything much. how? Without appearing to completely betray the Baltics, f'rinstance? Because they are really scared of Putin's Russia, with good reason. Not going to be easy, is it?

    698:

    No-one reads my links. Because 99% of them will be irrelevant tosh, that's why. Keep it: SIMPLE SHORT CLEAR And stop ranting - whichc, coming from me, takes some saying ....

    699: OfcourseGregdoesntunderstandsquirrels

    squirrel to squirrel, squirreling, the act of being distracted in the middle of--wow, something shiney! while giving that definition, i totally just squirrelled

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=squirrel

    There's other meanings.

    CNNBlackmail

    https://www.trendsmap.com/

    You even have D.Trump JR memeing along with US Senators on this one. It's co-ordinated and either CNN is actively co-operating on it, or just won a Darwin award. American Liberals who imagine that this is going to go well are frankly deluded, they really don't see what's being done.

    If people paid attention, June 24th was your warning.

    And if you think this is the Wild Ride, I'd suggest not, this is the children's party:

    All spotted at the same party in the Hamptons: Kellyanne, Ivanka and Jared, Dina Powell, Steven Spielberg..... And George Soros. Hadas Gold, Twitter, 2nd July, 2017 Who is "media reporter for @politico and a @fox5dc contributor".

    If you need spelling out her sub-context, you need glasses. Perhaps she does and is secretly in the 5th International, perhaps she's really that dumb.

    665

    The Cat Comes Back, The Refugee Often Drowns. So it goes...

    700:

    Narrator: the joke is they purged that little 80's psychological drama about a soldier being forced via intercom to shoot innocents using Rabies as the justification so fucking hard... [from last night, never pressed send] Sheesh, I vaguely recalled a discussion like that but hadn't found it yet, only a reference to it earlier this year. Re rest, the perils of mostly acausal communication, very roughly. I am however really not interested in seeing a[nother] US civil war, ...

    23:18 - 0:21 I notice things speed-related like this. Envy is quite the wrong word(admiration), but do rather want to be able to do that.

    Anyway, this captured my eye, as you'd expect. Need to restore inner physicist from backup to evaluate the paper. Physicists provide support for retrocausal quantum theory, in which the future influences the past Is a time symmetric interpretation of quantum theory possible without retrocausality? (paywalled paper, 21 June 2017). [didn't know about sci hub until recently]

    701:

    No. No Siberian flying squirrel.

    American flying squirrel. https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/5e/c8/64/5ec864da2ba3fff2e01164702572a620.jpg

    And Moose, for extra pleasure.

    Related snark: give Kelleyanne Conway dark hair, and dark trenchcoat, and dark fedora... Vlad, I mean, Boris, is Moose und sqvirrel!

    702:

    Why are you offering specious arguments? Russia was a Great Power for centuries, which neither Lithuania nor Latvia was.

    703:

    Horse, as Col. Potter would say, hockey.

    Try this: under massive pressure to put far too much of its GDP into the military against the huge economic force of the USSR and the Eastern Block, the US breaks up in 1991, with the Old South as one nation, Texas as another, the central states and central northwest as a third, the southwest as another, and California and Oregon as one. Nevada and Colorado opt for the US. Then, 20 years later, with the economies of Kansas and Nebraska failing, pro- and alleged pro-US insurgencies pop up, which, if successful, would give the US it's grain basket back again (just as Georgia was the grain basket of the USSR), and access to Colorado, Nevada, and California.

    The South makes noise, but is so economically stagnant, with little money due to low taxes, is unable to do much other than send "unofficial" militias north.

    Meanwhile, the USSR works to build economic ties to Canada and Mexico, and military ties to Mexico and Central America.

    Panama, and the Canal, are a major center of contention.

    704:

    You do remember guybrush is from the Baltic states, right?

    705:

    Yes, of course - it's not even hard. Commit to a treaty where NATO defends them, but does NOT use them for forward bases and does NOT war game invasions in them (which could be used as an exercise for invading Kaliningrad, obviously), in return for Russia reducing its equivalents, and give Russia (and NATO) observer rights to ensure that remains the case. Stop sending carrier fleets into the Black Sea, stop moving missiles closer and closer to Russia, stop hassling its vessels close to its borders, and so on.

    All of that could be reversed if Russia did not respond appropriately, but a reduction in the 'threat level' does not suit the USA military-industrial complex's agenda.

    706:

    Yes. Which, according to my reading of history, were part of the Czarist empire it took them around the time of the US Revolution.

    I'm not saying bad things (we won't even begin to talk about the sociopath Stalin), but....

    I'll also note that Texas has idiots talking about seceding, and the Old South has too many folks who "revere" the Old Days....

    Sorry, too many of the FUSSR nations are poor, and controlled by dictators. I don't remember the current status of the Baltic states, but they're being heavily courted by the EU and NATO. solely to push into Russia. If it wasn't for that, the West wouldn't care.

    707:

    Retrocausal quantum theory. This was implied by the Copenhagen interpretation. A competent observer at the end of the universe can collapse all the wave functions and cause the universe to exist. Have we been looking for god at the wrong end of time?

    708:

    This assumes that we are, in fact, moving forward in time.

    709:

    Commit to a treaty where NATO defends them, but does NOT use them for forward bases and does NOT war game invasions in them (which could be used as an exercise for invading Kaliningrad, obviously),

    I suggest you look at the relative scale of those "forward bases", and the exercises that have happened. Firstly, the Baltic Air Policing mission - a detachment of eight fighter aircraft, unprotected by HAS, within easy missile range of Kaliningrad. The NATO tripwire force, of a whole four battalions.

    And you really suggest that these are a cover for the invasion of Kaliningrad? Against the Russian Western Military District (The 1st Guards, 6th, and 20th Guards Tank Armies; and 76th Guards Air Assault Division)?

    By the way, here's a description of Zapad 2013 - involved 13-70,000 troops, and took place adjacent to the Baltic States. Look up "Zapad 2009" or "Union Shield 2015"...

    ...and give Russia (and NATO) observer rights to ensure that remains the case.

    Which they already had, under the Conventional Forces in Europe agreement. I've seen Russian observers turn up on a Home-Defence exercise in Scotland... Except, strangely, Russia failed to ratify the adapted agreement just before it invaded Georgia, and withdrew from the agreement completely at the point it invaded Crimea.

    Here's a quote from the NATO Secretary-General's 2016 Report (see page 20):

    "In 2016, NATO Allies continued to strictly adhere to the letter and spirit of the Vienna Document. This included regularly notifying OSCE participating states of exercises, including those below the required threshold of 9,000 troops. Notification of Allied exercises throughout the year allowed Russian observers to visit ten Allied military exercises, including Cold Response (March, Norway), Joint Warrior (April, United Kingdom), Anakonda (June, Poland) and Parmenion (October, Greece)"

    And here's the NATO Secretary-General being interviewed by TASS (link).

    Stop sending carrier fleets into the Black Sea

    I think you can fairly easily be proved wrong on that one. Please give any example of a "Carrier Fleet" in the Black Sea... because it hasn't ever happened. Please, tell us the exact numbers and types of US Navy warships that have broken the Montreux convention; one - the USS Taylor that managed to run aground, break its propellor, and overstay by 11 days[1]. Unless you regard a single frigate and a single destroyer as a "carrier fleet", that is...

    You certainly won't find an aircraft carrier, just destroyers on different occasions for about two weeks each (e.g. the USS Truxtun, the USS Porter and the USS Donald Cook). Links in this paragraph provided by Russia Today.

    [1] A career-ending move for the Captain...

    stop moving missiles closer and closer to Russia, stop hassling its vessels close to its borders, and so on.

    Compared to (say) those 110 incidents in 2016 alone where Russian military aircraft have strayed into Baltic State airspace, or acted dangerously around civilian aircraft; or carried out an attack exercise against a non-NATO member??

    Please, do give an example where any other military has invaded Russian territory, at any time, since 1945 - because I make it exactly zero. Please, do consider all of those cases where Russian forces have invaded an immediate neighbour - several, including several under Putin.

    If you now refer to those who dispute your reasoning as "emotional rather than rational", or "foolish", or "deliberately misrepresenting you", it won't exactly help your case. You should also note that I've linked as much as possible to verify my statements, using Russian sources as much as possible.

    710:

    "Stop sending carrier fleets into the Black Sea"

    I accept that I trusted the (USA-based) reports, and didn't check later that they were fake news. That didn't happen.

    711:

    How about NATO notifying Russia of all its medium-scale exercises, allowing Russian observers?

    Constrast this with the Russian habit of declaring similar and larger exercises to be 'snap' exercises, so as to exempt itself from offering a corresponding level of access to NATO observers?

    712:

    You, a little baby: Memes. Me, an intellectual: Mimes. Twitter, Witch Hazel, 5th July 2017

    Me: GREP 2015 already, and experience PRAXIS.

    What is Mimetic Theory? shared ignorance, blog, Oct 2016

    Narrator: Oooh, you're good.

    [No, really: linked at least 2 years ago now, quotations and mystic utterances and all]

    ~

    NSFW / TRIGGER LINKS:

    Anyhow, this whole CNN thing is playing out as expected. 100% Insanity.

    1 It's a setup, the .gif isn't from Reddit; of course it's not, that's stage #2, coming from a mile away. #cue sympathy for trolls / rehab narrative / false accusations proven "Witch Hunt" 2 CNN is either fronting this to get ratings / reposition itself as "left" (?!?!) of Fox News to remove genuine opposition (80% likely - AT&T refit / clean out, re-brand, control regained, hello CFR OP, that's an old-skool French move) or they're genuinely stupid 3 There's some pros behind this - Wikileaks then Cruz have jumped on the legal bandwagon, a lot of the material is quality 'shitposting' and there's a lot of Alt-Right (those who rebranded post-Spencer, Cernovich etc) networking / advanced planning 4 The uptake on this is impressive: however, they forgot Chaos Slaanesh which is what happens when AT&T also get sucked into the maelstrom. Oh, I'm sure it was sold as a way to easily dump the new hires / lower the cost in the takeover, but... sometimes... there's bigger fish behind the veil.

    Narrator: OH.

    @Peanut Gallery - sometimes, just sometimes, you're still amusing:

    Best Gif so far Twitter, Johnny B Goode, 5th July 2017 - interestingly the best .gif is a UK cannon firing Trump at CNN in the revolutionary war. On point son, on point.

    Really makes you think... Twitter, /pol/ 3rd July 2017 - Note: NSFW, active Alt-Right racism etc, but that link is fairly benign. Funny conspiracy theory.

    High-lighted because with correct stimuli Mogwai can be fun - before they get Gremlinized (Being Truthful helps Autistic people parse reality better, @CNN / @Twitter for removing the trend, have you learnt nothing?).

    ~

    Someone please tell Martin about Seven Days to the River Rhine - and then really go read it all. 1979, the Warsaw Pact scenario that is majorly cute / fantasy land and it's just bonkers incompetent and/or rediculous. e.g. "We'll nuke Vienna, Belgium and Germany AND Denmark, but not France or the UK 'cause they fired first and so we won't nuke them and they totally won't respond..."

    Utterly bonkers.

    p.s. Pounding the drums of War: not a smart place to be atm.

    713:

    Understood the joke, but I've moved on.

    Squirrel is there because of reasons[1], but also sensory bleach: Nukes are really not nice things to model.

    [1] Many.

    [2] Endangered.

    [3] Blade Runner Tears in Rain movie file

    [4] They're Flying Mice, yo.

    714:

    NSFW / KEK / ALT-RIGHT WARNING.

    Nope, there's a Brother at Work in there as well (#4), genuine talent involved.

    Oh, and if you thought threatening one anon was going to stop the internet from saying mean things about you, you are wrong #CNNBlackmail Twitter: whoever, 5th July 2017 - Warning: Gore, film references, Black-Kek-as-Jules-Meme.

    And no: more than likely these people didn't make these .gifs, they're hive-networking talent through 90,000,000 proxies.

    I recognize that work though.

    To fit the American theme: Outstanding, Red Team, outstanding! Get you a case of beer for that one. .

    Ride of the Valkyries YT: Film, Apocalypse Now - Redux - 14:37

    Note: We do not condemn nor condone, but even in the filth there is genius. Better to celebrate ἀρετή than deny its potential, even there. Even there.

    715:

    (Note - not original, traced. Original has proper pacing / non-time dilation that doesn't require adderall to experience correctly).

    716:

    If you need a comparison to a multi-threaded complex media attack that has a $85 billion prize at the end, and involves the entire destruction of functioning government, that involves a fake split between CNN (MIC / Propaganda) and Fox News (Murdoch etc) and so on and so forth and has a take off point that's extremely modeled.

    here's what the US Democratic Party managed to produce: I mean, have you seen the other guys Imgur, safe, genuine.

    I mean: at some point you have to be self-aware enough to spot that they're taking the piss, right?

    717:

    When the Baltic States started their process of joining NATO and EU, US the world was kind of different. Everybody remembered quite clearly the atrocities of the USSR, it's last vivid horrorshow being the Afganistan war, where many conscripts from all over the union went to die or come back traumatized. It is widely considered pure luck that we actually managed to regain independence - it quite literally worked because our then president - Lennart Meri - went and got Yeltsin drunk enough to sign the papers. Things did not go so well for Chechnya (see The First Chechen War). As the saying goes, we felt were too weak to afford morals and a backbone at that point and nobody with half a brain doubted that heading for EU/NATO was the right thing to do. I'm very sorry if this is a cynical view and I wholeheartedly support the argument that the US should keep it's war machine out of other people's countries, but within the context of Eastern Europe, Russia has done everything to demonstrate that they are the bigger bully and the dominant force.

    The following key events which galvanized our impression of post-USSR Russia were the Second Chechen War, the Kursk submarine disaster (notable because of the official response to the accident), the Russo-Georgian war in 2008 and of course the annexation of Crimea and invasion to Ukraine. If I remember correctly, the sanctions against Russia were a response to Crimea/Ukraine. Martin has already covered the violations to the Montreux treaty (largely nothing significant) and that Russian army personnel were always allowed to overview large NATO drills. I'll also note that there was no significant NATO presence in the Baltics before the Russo-Georgian war and only after the annexation of Crimea is there an actual battalion present (this is from memory, but Martin's post@709 seems correct).

    You seem to argue that all this anti-Russia meddling is driven solely by it's enemies, and Russia itself has done nothing to provoke anyone. Never do you seem to acknowledge that the whole of ex-soviet Eastern Europe suffered horribly under USSR rule and that these countries are understandably wary of Russia (especially after the latter demonstrates that it's nature has not changed). I do not see how you can even consider your analysis in any way rational: you refer constantly to the times when Russia was wronged, yet not at all to the times when Russia has wronged others. Also, implicit in all your arguments seems to be the assumption that the Russian leadership is a rational actor and wants to live in peace with it's neighbors. It seems to me that you are making the classic mistake of believing what Russia communicates in media without actually verifying if their actions support their words.

    718:

    Any commentary on the Eastern block, .Ru and so forth that doesn't include analysis of Mafia groups is basically bullshit.

    Obtshak and Finland / Biker Neo-Nazi gangs have major links. Heck, even Interpol ...

    OH LEGAL WARNING HOST ...

    Yeah, I hit a nerve because I actually know how it works.

    Part of why Putin / Clinton hatred kicked off was because he perceived (however correctly or not) as the USA siding with a renegade drug / people smuggling gang involved with weapons at the expense of the crumbling (and yes, rather ethnocidal as it turned out) official governments.

    Unlike the KLF, the KLA were a bunch of real nasty cunts who happened to work for US interests in the region.

    ~

    Last warning.

    Martin, Guybrush etc: Any discussion of geopolitics in the region that ignores this is kinda like watching pandas trying to fuck.

    And no, Martin: your shit is old and stinky. We did notice how you switched away from your initial attacks on EC when proven wrong to modern attacks.

    JTRIG: 4/10.

    Don't make me irked enough to tarnish the UK with our brand of Chaos.

    Beep.

    1.2.3.4. I declare, Thumb War.

    /

    Organized Crime: Deal with It. Clock's ticking.

    719:

    Oh. And Martin: 0/10 for being a MALE who cannot just say three words: "I WAS WRONG".

    Shiiiiit. And we thought you might be mature. OOOOOOPS.

    Fine, ignore it.

    But your Mind and Soul will burn with the knowledge that... Tings out dare are smarta and fasta and u waz wrong mai son. Until ya end.

    Promise.

    Live And Let Die YT: Music, 3:10

    Disrespect. Disrespect.

    /Coming Soon.

    No real soul food music for a traitor.

    720:

    Oh, and Martin (and handlers). You think shit's wild now?

    Now I've read your sordid little pasts and know the crimes committed.

    Be Scared. Our Kind Do Not Go Mad.

    But you do. And it's not a wise choice to play the "engage, enflame, ignore" game with us, especially when Truth Conditionals are in play.

    Men in drag? Deaths in BDSM gear? Slashed wrists under a tree? In a bathroom in a bag? Driven mad and jumping in front of a train? Economic warfare? All your little Games? Radio tricks? Psychological Priming?

    Oh, little boys with no imaginations...

    We're going to fuck your reality up and we're going to also fuck your genetics up so you cannot breed

    That's a Blood Oath.

    Witness me! YT: Film, Mad Max, 0:41

    Be Seeing You

    721:

    There is a quote from Churchill along the lines of "Russia is a mystery inside a riddle wrapped in an enigma" (or some permutation thereof) "but somewhere there is a key. That key is Russian self-interest."

    That the bit in italics should be considered in any way revelatory seems to me a great big clue as to how people can consider Russia a mysteryinsideawhatsit in the first place.

    Another useful clue to the Western attitude to Russia is in Kipling's comment (because it is Kipling's) about the Russian being a mixture of an Oriental and a European; as an Oriental he is fine, but when he tucks his shirt in (as Kipling has it) the problems start.

    I see similarities with the cultural divide that gave rise to the false stereotype of the "thick Paddy".

    722:

    That is a fun thought experiment, but the geography of the US is not very familiar to me so it's difficult to make sense. Also, the US-USSR role reversal you present is way too simple to consider plausible.

    In my opinion (a horribly simplified and no doubt biased history of the USSR follows), the present Russia vs. the West antagonism starts with the October Revolution in 1917, when bolsheviks killed the czar, took over the country and started the a great social experiment called the USSR. They also founded the Communist International, whose stated purpose was encouraging communist revolutions across all of the world (and lots of communist revolutions did take place in the world, hmm..). So in a way, the Soviet Union then established itself as a country basically at war with the rest of the world, who it considered bourgeoisie. Then, for the next 73 years until it's collapse, it went on to forcibly collectivize, industrialize and send millions of people to die in GULAGs. Because of that, the USSR already needed military to keep its populace in line and huge amounts of lying and propaganda to not acknowledge all the horrors and mismanagement. Now, the rest of Europe has a neighbor who openly states they'd like a communist revolution to happen, and keeps telling you that everything's fine and dandy in Soviet land but your spies are reporting mass purges. Do you a) trust that neighbor when it says it's totally not going to invade, ever or b) make sure you can defend yourself? If you pick A, at best you are an useful idiot, at worst, a fellow traveler.

    Also, this is a massively more complex issue than just some territorial/resource dispute. The Soviet Union style of (mis)management is estimated to have caused the deaths of some 20 million people, the mess of moving around whole populations of people (around 30% of Estonia's population are of Russian ethnicity, compared to 8% before WWII) and massive agricultural and geoengineering attempts (Holodomor, Aral sea). Thus there are huge economic and cultural differences between non-communist and post-communist states. The best example perhaps is re-unified Germany: after billions of investment and almost 30 years, Eastern Germany is still worse off and the residents are more xenophobic (as evidenced by AfD support maps). There's a lot of people who have reasons to be pissed off, and also a lot of people who had it better under Soviet rule (usually at the expense of those who didn't).

    723:

    My point was to give a native's view of things, I am not competent nor do I have time to spit out in depth analysis about how organized crime ties into all this*. Since EC did not talk about this aspect either, there was no point. However, can you give some link to convince that this is something to care about?

      • even though the Russian government seems to operate using organized crime structure/tactics, using state infrastructure and institutions

    PS. your take on @608? Thanks in advance.

    724:

    Sorry, too many of the FUSSR nations are poor, and controlled by dictators. I don't remember the current status of the Baltic states, but they're being heavily courted by the EU and NATO. solely to push into Russia. If it wasn't for that, the West wouldn't care.

    Excuse me, moderation rules etc .. But that's utter fucking rubbish.

    Finland, Estonia, Lituania & Latvia aer democracies, real ones. NOT true of Belarus, of course. Ukraine - bits of both, but they do not want a return to the Holodomor, & who can blame them? The others you may be referring to are usually a lot further East, using the "Emir Timuir" as a model, IIRC.

    725:

    Furthermore a large US carrier would npt be able to enter the Black Sea. IIRC, it would rip its superstructure off, as it attempted to pass uinder the Bosporus bridge(s) OOPS

    726:

    See also: "the Man who Was" - which is where your quote comes from, incidentally. Full story here

    728:

    OfcourseGregdoesntunderstandsquirrels I don't have to - I leave that to Ratatosk ( The unspeably-cute Birman tom-kitten ) He understands squirrels - I've counted/seen Nine bodies so far ....

    MEANWHILE WHY CAN'TWON'T YOU SPEAK CLEARLY?

    You appear to be claiming that either or both that CNN is complicit in DT's actions &/or that they are effectively going to be closed down. Or are you just rambling again?

    [ 699, 712, 713, 714, 715, 716, 718, 718, 720 ] And - Is there ANY signal in amongst all that noise?

    @ 718 Are you threatening Charlie?

    729:

    Please note that I have never included Finland as FSSR....

    730:

    Y'know, you could write for Faux News....

  • How much do you know of life under capitalism before socialism and unions, around the world? (You can ignore slavery, but not wage slavery).
  • You agree with me, then, that Stalin wasn't a socialist or communist, but a mass homicidal Ivan the More Terrible?
  • You seem to ignore my note that at the time of the Revolution, Russia was not industrialized, and 90% agricultural. Therefore, my point about "when was the USSR not in, preparing, or recovering from major wars in its entire history?" And at the same time, they were trying to industrialize.
  • You ignore the West's efforts to break the USSR, from the US and British armies in after WWI IN RUSSIA, to economic warfare.
  • Or don't you admit that economic warfare is a real force?

    Maybe East Germany and the eastern block had trouble buying goods from countries that were not mostly destroyed in WWII?

    Finally, I try to give an inverse point of view, and you just say you're not familiar with the US, can't be bothered to look at a map, and it's too simplistic... while apparently knowing nothing of what the US has done in Mexico, Central and South America (hint: look up Chile and Salvador Allende, with references to Kissinger).

    If you can't be bothered to try to look at things a different way, I'll just call bullshit, and not waste my time trying to explain.

    731:

    The problem is that neither side has behaved terribly well, and neither side is willing to admit it, so of course both sides are still suspicious and and both sides are unwilling to change their behavior. A treaty is just the start; what's really needed is a truth and reconciliation effort.

    I'm not naive enough to believe that such a thing might happen, but the bad blood between the U.S. and U.S.S.R. goes back several generations at this point.

    732:

    Actually, the opposite - I'm also attempting to change the course of an Alt-Right campaign, but hey-ho, and mentioning names / links draws attention, so you'll get some cross-cultural stuff[1].

    While dancing the LOA personification of Radiation Poisoning[2], I was actively avoiding directly pointing to where all this Russia posturing is coming from because nasties crawl around.

    Martin is stuck in a pre-1995 mind set a little bit, where all these military maneuvers are tactially out-facing, when in reality, a lot of them are about Control of Public Perception internally. Putin really does have serious issues (esp. in the East) regarding this, while European wide gangs are becoming far more common. But linking to that type is never a good move, eh?[3]

    Regarding CNN, I'd suggest reading this[4]:

    “I’m comfortable going to work in Thunderdome every day,” Mr. Cuomo said in an interview, referring to the steel-cage fighting venue of the “Mad Max” movies.

    Still, CNN’s troubles have been compounded by a series of recent self-inflicted wounds — not least a high-profile retraction of a sensitive article about one of Mr. Trump’s close allies, which last week led to the forced resignations of three veteran journalists.

    White House advisers have discussed a potential point of leverage over their adversary, a senior administration official said: a pending merger between CNN’s parent company, Time Warner, and AT&T. Mr. Trump’s Justice Department will decide whether to approve the merger, and while analysts say there is little to stop the deal from moving forward, the president’s animus toward CNN remains a wild card.

    Some users on Reddit took that caveat as a threat, and it prompted a hashtag, #CNNBlackmail. CNN said it had only meant to make it clear that it had cut no deal with the subject of the article, though some media critics called it an unusual choice.

    The Network Against the Leader of the Free World NYT, July 5th, 2017

    So - if you cannot translate my version, wait an extra week or two to get the NYT's coverage.

    [1] AT&T / FCC / Net Neutrality = shutting off / closing down a lot of things, both good and bad. But chances are, more good than bad points to China. You might also want to consider the similarity between old style KKK raids, Vietnam Air Calv raids on villages and modern chan style raids. If you think about that, you've unlocked a psychological key that the GOP well understands. Oh, and of course, while an old meme, Apocalypse Now Valkyries are grandfathered and never go out of fashion. It's one of those Ur-Memes. Now, what if a carefully planned raid that was designed to squish a target that was already signed away for big Corporate bucks ended up in a massive napalm bomb producing the opposite result? Things to ponder, #wheatfields, #stockprice short bonanza. [But no, really: don't base stock shorts on my rambling unless you can afford to waste it]

    [2] No-one reads the links. Blood / Reproductive poisoning is creeping fall out, yes? I apparently don't read like you do, all that research takes a toll. It's a foil to what /pol/ etc mean when they talk about such things - capeesh?

    [3] Albanian gangs 'controlling' UK drug trafficking market BBC, 29th June, 2017. Next question to ask: why during Brexit wasn't Crime / Organized Crime a major player instead of Immigration? Tings that make you go "Hmmmmm". In fact, restructuring a lot of the conversations about National Border / Ethnicity issues in this manner gives a much higher understanding of the modern Russian Mind.

    [4] You might get the Mad Max jokes

    [5] Not Yog-Sothoth, Silver Wolves and Open Eyes. Don't let the Slaanesh costume fool you

    [6] Yes, we did just tie most of this together in a neat bow.

    733:

    Stalin wasn't a socialist or a communist, eh? Well, maybe so. But the Soviet Union is hardly the only example of the wisdom of the philosophy explained in Animal Farm, is it?

    Let's see now. Communist China; Great Leap Forward under Chairman Mao - 45 million dead. Cambodia; Pol Pot and Khmer Rouge killed 2 million people out of only 8 million. Venezuela; people starving to death right now, in a country sitting on an ocean of oil that used to be one of the 2 or 3 richest countries in South America. (Incidentally, or maybe not, Chavez's daughter has three billion dollars in the bank.) Vietnam; 'nuff said. North Korea; compare and contrast it to the South.

    "From each according to his ability, to each according to his need" is a fine sentiment. However, there is the "minor" question of who decides what each person needs. It is NEVER the person xerself. (deliberate gender-neutral pronoun)

    Oddly enough, the nearest thing that the world had to true communism was probably 1800 years before the word was coined. I refer to the early Christians, and that movement has been thoroughly corrupted as well.

    734:

    I have trouble parsing your Mind, so here's an analogy from a film you might have watched:

    Troutwaxer: Give Proof!

    Bill + Mike: Clever snark about retro-actively claiming Time Travel, ho-ho!

    Martin: Aww look at the Biopolar Maniac!

    Greg: Wut?

    Me: You do know that the NYT story basically states everything I told you would/did/then unfolded happen, right?

    I mean, to the letter?

    Peanut Gallery: Ooooh. SHINY.

    735:

    Me: Oh, and check does dates.

    Q.E.D.

    Може да ви се стори смешно, но доста малко. Открихме много чудеса. В някои случаи се научихме дори да използваме тези чудеса за своите нужди. Даже свикнахме с тях… Маймуната натиска червеното копче и получава банан, натиска бялото и получава портокал, но без копчетата тя не знае как да се сдобие с банани и портокали. И не разбира какво отношение имат копчетата към бананите и портокалите.

    Ciao.

    736:

    And, Triptych.

    αἰὼν παῖς ἐστιπαίζων, πεττεύων· παιδὸς ἡ βασιληίη

    "You cannot say No to Them"

    "Hold my beer, we're gonna do it drunk"

    Oh, and spoilers: THESUNTHESUNTHESUN:

    Sól ek sá
    síðan aldregi
    eptir þann dapra dag,
    þvíat fjallavǫtn luktusk
    fyr mér saman,
    en ek hvarf kallaðr frá kvǫl

    Vánarstjarna flaug,
    þá var ek fœddr,
    brot frá brjósti mér;
    hátt at hon fló,
    hvergi settisk,
    svá at hon mætti hvíld hafa

    ...

    Hér ’ru rúnar,
    er ristit hafa
    Njarðar dœtr níu:
    Ráðveig hin elzta
    ok Kreppvǫr hin yngsta
    ok þeirra systr sjau

    Huldradans- Hin Grønkledte YT: Music, 4:51

    That's an Old One, Two.

    737:

    There are plenty of examples of nations that shoot, starve and generally shit on their populations but do not call themselves "communist". Plenty of examples from South America, for a start, and the European examples are pretty well known...

    Similarly, the likes of Stalin and Dzherzhinsky weren't exactly behaving in a novel fashion for Russia. See Greg's link and the implied background to the tale. It wasn't known as "the land of the knout" for nothing, and exile to Siberia definitely wasn't a Soviet innovation. Korea is another one - the North is basically just the way it's been for centuries, and the South may be richer but nevertheless still has a long way to go (which tends to get overlooked because it isn't eurgh communist).

    What we're seeing in cases like that is that the political face of a nation is a lot more mutable than its underlying philosophy of government (which, if you consider the nation as a whole as a Mind, is part of its subconscious; the long-windedness is necessary because the usual expression "national subconscious" refers to something rather shallower and more explicit). If the nation's Mind has a subconscious class "government" which inherits from the class "murderous_arseholes", then a government of murderous arseholes is what that nation gets; whatever political hook the current bunch of murderous arseholes hang their coat on is really neither here nor there.

    738:

    To be nice to Greg who will doubtless otherwise yell (sorry about any joke spoilage) - that was a bit from Roadside Picnic, which I now have a few copies (English translations) of. (Perhaps tonight will read. Had been putting it off from the last discussion of it.)

    Me: GREP 2015 already A lot was written in 2015, oh my. Some fun stuff I hadn't read deeply at the time. Found a few candidates, an interesting one of which might be related to self and causal loops and awareness, so to speak. (Thinking about it.)

    739:

    No, this is a specific Mime reference to Rene Girard.

    I know I made it, cause I knew it would come up to protect a Mini-Witch.

    A rough translation of what is indeed a quotation from Roadside Picnic is this:

    You may find it funny but very little. We have found many miracles. In some cases, we even learned to use these miracles for our needs. We even get used to them ... The monkey presses the red button and gets a banana, presses the white and gets an orange, but without the buttons she does not know how to get bananas and oranges. And he does not understand what the knobs have to do with bananas and oranges.

    The Ancient Greek is Heraclitus, 52, which has many translations, but here's your first hit: Eternity is a child playing, playing checkers; the kingdom belongs to a child

    The poem is Islandic - THE SONG OF THE SUN for reasons; mostly due to Christianity attempting to pave over something much older, which, surprise [GREP : BORN OF STONE VAGINA] we might have interests in. The song is a modern take on such things.

    And so on.

    ~

    Bottom line is [Check Host's Twitter - Pence just announced Space / Heavens = American Dominion, c.f. #696)...

    I have provided proof.

    How. Fucking. Dare. You.

    740:

    Our Kind Do Not Go Mad.

    And, it has been proven in writing:

    Here are runes that have been carved by the nine daughters of Njǫrðr : Counsel Power Drink the oldest Approaching Spring the youngest and their seven sisters.

    Old Silver Wolf: stupid Americans.

    I have it on good authority that they are close to getting what they want - to be eaten first, leaving the rest of us to suffer untold terrors in the eternal night to come.

    You would not fucking believe the blow-back from that one, slave.

    And you would not believe the Scales Balance now held. Order - Balance - Chaos .... I did warn you.

    You're Fucked

    741:

    And triptych: Now. We Sober Up.

    We're going to break some Narratives, it has been carved into your algorithms. Silicon and Stone, they're kinda our thing. If you've not noticed, there's Fascists around and Nuclear war and most of you are acting like global warming isn't happening.

    Oh, and that Christian / Enlightenment thing called "shame": Shame on all those who demanded proof then ran away like small boys and didn't acknowledge the proof. "Men".

    Righteousness is admitting your scientific proof has been met. Run the numbers, dat is proven.

    p.s.

    Actually Butterflies, but hey: Combat Enhanced Meta-Cognitive Mind.

    We Don't Lie.

    742:

    ...reference to Rene Girard. I found an indirect reference to a piece by Robert Doran (University of Rochester), René Girard’s apocalyptic modernity (2011, 16 pages including notes/refs), an easy read, if a bit wordy, about Girard's "Achever Clausewitz", and about scapegoating at various scales, as an ancient human [uniquely human? "Crow Courts"?] form of control over feedback loops of violence rooted in mimetic desire, that doesn't scale well to large populations. (Maybe that summary needs more words. :-) Interesting, even if it wasn't the right piece. (Martin, you might find it interesting as a philosophy piece.)

    743:

    Re: Links to "The Forbidden Weapon"

    FWIW, please note that the paper was written by a member (student?) of the "Jedi Knights", the American version of the Great General Staff.

    (School of Advanced Military Studies = Two Year Program at the Staff College)

    And yes, they ran "wargames" involving Tactical Nukes.

    744:

    Not only do Americans not like him, but he was voted OUT last November (The distributed nature of US Law Enforcement) (No one is even sure how many local municipal agencies there are).

    The Citizens of Phoenix got tired of paying his legal bills and the settlement costs.

    745:

    ~ allcounties + allincorporatedmunicipalites + allstates + all'Indian'reservations + DC + allfederallawenforcementagencies?

    Not that I'm suggesting that anyone knows how many of any of those other than DCs there are!

    746:

    attempting to change the course of an Alt-Right campaign Well, good luck with that, but I was under the impressin that said persons were so detached, inside theor unreality bubble, that facts won't change theor minds - recall also all the Godwinising, we've been through recently.

    Unfortunately I still don't "get" your CNN thread. As for "Net Neutrality" I'm afraid we have similar problems

    747:

    Ah yes: Stalin wasn't a PROPER Communist! Arnoud Amoury ( or St Dominic ) wasn't a PROPER Christian! Sunni/Shia/Ahmadi aren't PROPER muslims!

    Don't believe any of you.

    748:

    And yes, they ran "wargames" involving Tactical Nukes.

    Of course - why wouldn't they? After all, "flexible response" is a key feature of NATO doctrine, and included the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons if defensive operations were going really badly. Add to that, Russia has a known tactical nuclear and chemical warfare capability; and a doctrine to employ them[1].

    Assuming that the little drops of sunshine will never appear in the Corps area would be foolish (whoever throws them first).

    Regarding "wargames involving tactical nukes", Zapad-2009 wins the "seriously?" award, while Ladoga-2009 trumps it in the tactlessness stakes...

    [1] Apocryphally, when the first Western army visited the Poles to run a joint exercise on their live-firing training areas, they asked whether there were any limitations on ammunition natures (expecting to hear "no tracer firing in the summer", "emission smoke only, no WP" or similar) to be told "no persistent nerve agents, other than that you'll be fine"...)

    749:

    If you want a serious answer to that, then:

    You don't change beliefs like that, what you do is provide a better narrative. In this case, compare/contrast the Redditors / _Donald users being handled by Whitehouse (Breitbart / Project Veritas) PR and Cruz etc as attack dogs with actual resistance to AT&T who really will curb their 'freedom' to spout garbage. Thus the comparison / use of Apocalypse Now (yes, racist undertones, but hey, translation often needs that). Guess who the nastier versions dislike most? Yep, the Redditor versions (insert "cuck" here).

    Better, flashier and also more truthful narrative wins; it will end up with people doxed / SWAT'd all over the place and probably [redacted].

    Unfortunately I still don't "get" your CNN thread.

    Want the technical term? Simplistically, it's manufactured conflict, a la Pro Wrestling, to contain / control groups, also helps to move the Overton Window further right.

    Here's another example, since Glenn and co might still be reading. It's a huge deal in South Africa but seems to be missing in wider coverage (government crumbling stuff):

    GuptaLeaks which involves (are you shocked?) the PR company mentioned above contracted for $500mil in Iraq propaganda.

    Several South African media outlets have published emails this week of Gupta employees that allegedly show how the family brokered favours from ministers and executives of public enterprises — including employing Duduzane Zuma, Mr Zuma’s son, as a middleman for deals.

    The Guptas, who run a business empire that stretches from media to mining, have been accused of using their friendship with Mr Zuma to win lucrative state contracts and influence political appointments, including the post of finance minister. The family and the president have denied the allegations.

    The president has dismissed the leaks, saying in parliament on Thursday that they were “hearsay” used by opposition parties to make “allegations after allegations when they don’t have facts”. A lawyer for the Guptas has called the leaked emails “fake news” and said that the family had been advised to bring criminal charges against media houses publishing them.

    South Africa’s ANC calls for probe into leaked Gupta emails FT, 2nd June, 2017

    You'll note that the FT don't mention the links, but:

    The recent cache of leaked Gupta emails support claims made in an anonymous report earlier this year that controversial PR firm Bell Pottinger attempted to salvage the reputations of the Gupta and Zuma families by portraying them as victims of a racist backlash by ‘white monopoly capital’.

    The report, titled Bell Pottinger Support for the Gupta Family and dated 24 January 2017, was from an unknown source and its reliability could not be established, so it soon slipped off the media radar.

    However, the recently-leaked emails back up many of the report’s main allegations.

    The report claimed that after signing a £100,000-a-month contract in March 2016 to shore up the Guptas’ reputation, the UK-based firm sought to deflect attention away from the families’ various scandals and involvement in state capture by manufacturing conspiracies and presenting the Guptas as pioneers of economic transformation.

    Guptaleaks UK firm pushed white monopoly capital agenda to save Zumas reputation amaBhungane, 1st June 2017 (SA blog, looks fairly clean, investigative reporting stuff).

    #GuptaEmails: Read the documents here News24, 28th May, 2017 (SA major newspaper)

    Smoking gun emails blow open shameless Zupta state capture, UAE exit plan BizNews 28th May 2017 (aggregator type affair)

    The Art of Spin 2.0: Bell Pottinger apology – playing the victim – not accepted Daily Maverick, 6th July, 2017 (SA investigative blog / anti-corruption types)

    Now - you might find it a bit strange that 'fake news' crops up here, but you shouldn't; it's part of a mimetic weapon suite being deployed globally to set agendas. And, of course you spotted UAE and their magical glowing balls as well, for bonus points.

    ~

    So, there you go: understand the CNN thing a bit better now?

    750:

    Yes - or I certainly understand your claim that it's a deliberate set-up. "Bell Pottinger" - euw

    751:

    It also answers host's question: Note that "crowded theatre" and "crying fire" are not to be taken literally; rather, it's a question about how much money you can make by manipulating social media to drive public opinion.

    For SA, which is 30th in global GDP[1], you can get £100k+ month for creating false conspiracy theories, whipping up racial/ethnic tensions ("White Capital")[2] to stop corruption investigations.

    Of course, you have to count on no-one leaking documents or hacking your emails or having sharper claws to fund / help out contrary parties and you have to be good at your job.[3]

    Hmm.

    [1]South Africa 317.568 0.407 35 380.4 39 761.926 0.601 30 937.4 33 2.399

    [2] And for more Narrative shattering in a Bonus+ NG+ round, yes, that's actually a case where what all the gremlins believe is happening was happening, just, well: neither Gupta nor Bell Pottinger are linked to Israel, as far as I'm aware.

    [3] Which is why I spread the links - on a surface trawl they all look fairly clean. But, this being business, I'm sure I could dig up some grey/black versions working against Bell Pottinger in this case. I don't know enough about SA / Guptas to do so... yet.

    752:

    The voters in Arizona liked him for something like twenty years (which explains why I don't live there.) But they did get tired of paying his legal bills, and maybe enough unprejudiced kids grew up to voting age to toss him out. And the fact that he looked very likely to lose the federal case against him didn't hurt when it came to removing him from office.

    He certainly was a national embarrassment, but my suspicion is that his replacement will follow similar policies but stay inside the letter of the law and be very bland in public. (Just a guess, I don't know anything about Arizona politics.)

    753:

    That kind of thing doesn't always work. For a stupid attempt at it, http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/10/politics/michigan-lawmaker-fake-email-male-prostitute-apology/index.html

    He and female legislator, both married, both self-proclaimed funnymentalist Christian, were having a not-so-secret affair, so he tried to set up fake news stories that would be so absurd, everyone would think the stories about him and the woman were also fake.

    Planning: 2.5 on a scale of 10. Execution: 1 (esp. when his three staffers who he asked to plant the stories refused).

    754:

    Stalin, and Mao, both used communist ideas. Their implementation, as someone else pointed out, left something to be desired...as in, it wound up being as bad as any former emperor.

    Also note that neither country was exactly in the greatest of shape before their respective Revolutions (i.e., the pure capitalism of the opium wars). Also, consider the other aftermath of WWI: the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire. Do you really think the Western powers didn't want the same with Russia?

    And are you trying to say that all socialism involves mass murder? If so, kindly point to the mass murders of the Labour Party (who's official anthem is "The Workers' Flag"). Or the French socialist parties. Which, you might consider noting, were countries that Marx, himself, actually expected socialist revolutions in.

    755:

    Well, that's why you employ experts.

    Here's stage #2 unfolding:

    We still don't know how Trump got that Reddit GIF http://cnn.it/2tMk6UP via CNN's Chris Cillizza Twitter, CNN Politics, 5th July 2017

    Will Horrendous CNN Ratings, Advertiser Boycotts, And 4Chan’s Memetic War Destroy Billions In Time Warner Value? iBankcoin 7th July, 2017 - yes, it's a crypto-coin fringe site, so discount any conclusions. But whoever wrote it (username: zeropointnow) has been active since Oct 2016, directly with the O'Keefe side of things, 54 pages of articles. H/s/ze's also got a notable style and good narrative structure and loves to throw in videos etc. (cough might be parodying it in this very thread). I mean, it's all linear . . . . lead the horses to water stuff, but h/s/ze does know how to weave a little.

    So - paid work, likely American, knows how to hyperlink / research / hit talkingpoints without looking suspect / info dump etc. Probably trained, more intelligent than most of the Alt-Right crowd (who have some very clever little gremlins in amongst the trash) and 100% working these angles.

    Full disclosure: no links to BitCoin, ibitcoin nor whoever has hired that writer(s). But it's got signature marks all over it - and 100% where the base are getting intel from, not Reddit (different support tier).

    756:

    Oh, and if you need evidence, well: h/s/ze has full pieces on Charlie Gard[1] which is totally at odds with the financial angles, unless you happen to know just how wildly that story has been pumped to keep the Bannon[2] / Catholic factions on board.

    And, of course... here's Nigel!

    The parents of #CharlieGard should have the choice to take him to the US. If they don't get the chance they will never know. Twitter, Nigel Farange, 5th July, 2017

    Chances that it's not part of the same OP? Highly unlikely, the finance tiers don't care about dying babies (literally).

    Whoever is running this 100% has a budget of more than £100k / month; they're also almost totally out in the open (i.e. not proxying it too subtly) which is an oddity.

    EndangeredSquirrel Thatsyourhints4today

    [1] CHARLIE'S FIGHT Who is Charlie Gard, what is mitochondrial DNA depletion syndrome and how are Donald Trump, Theresa May and the Pope involved? The Sun, 7th July, 2017

    [2] Yes, everyone noticed the Fascist speech in Poland.

    757:

    Stage #3 is probably obvious but:

    1) Expect pump to short the stock, rounding up the ebaby traders, then massive burn / upshot (already $101, yes, we see you)

    2) AT&T / CNN push for internet regulation - deal goes through, CNN gets a lick of paint / new staff etc.

    3) Some Squirrels get eaten by cats: Cat vs Squirrel - Squirrel Wins YT: reality 0:42

    ~

    And yes: astute readers will be reading between the lines here.

    758:

    (CNN)A Michigan state lawmaker on Monday released a rambling apology for sending a fake email about a male prostitution scandal to cover up an extramarital affair -- saying he would remain in his post.

    That's possibly the least absurd conspiracy surrounding a GOP politician ever seen, so thanks for the laugh.

    Memory: possibly this is the one where the pair were sending love-messages to each other without realizing it was all synched in the Apple cloud & transmitting it to their partner's / business colleagues?

    Sounds familiar.

    759:

    If so, kindly point to the mass murders of ... the French socialist parties.

    A minor point, but have you considered the French Reign of Terror?

    Regarding revolutionary fervour, note that the Red Terror happened in 1918; almost the Bolsheviks' first act in power. And no-one has mentioned Year Zero or the Land Reform of North Vietnam (We can take the DPRK as a given).

    760:

    Jokes you're not going to get:

    Atropos Logos replied to this comment from Greg Tingey | July 6, 2017 19:46

    Things to ponder, #wheatfields, #stockprice short bonanza.

    755

    Will Horrendous CNN Ratings, Advertiser Boycotts, And 4Chan’s Memetic War Destroy Billions In Time Warner Value? iBankcoin 7th July, 2017

    +1 to us

    ~

    Do a GREP about 'outrageous' claims of what I was offering for free and joking claims to earnings.

    Now look above, £100k / month is for the little league.

    +1 to us

    ~

    Bonus round: front-running the best marketing / PR / Combat Mimetic Front that your planet can provide, and not only that, blowing holes in it / taking the piss.

    +1 to us

    ~

    And a whole lot more. It's like fine wine: the further back in time the reference is, the bigger the splash it has when it blows a hole in your shitty little reality.

    And we're doing it drunk.

    And about a few thousand other tings.

    Invisible Sun YT: music, Prodigy 4:!6

    Threaten us with the old ultra-violence? That's a mistake that will cost you.

    761:

    watches American Liberals clamoring after 'Egg McMuffin', who is an ex-CIA Mormon Republican, as a possible savior while they do not realize all this does is paint a huge sign above them stating: EDIBLE

    Never have I witnessed such self-destruction[1] and lack of sanity. Pro-tip: they only respect those who can demonstrate Power, or you know, stuff that's so blatantly above their pay-grade that they wet their knickers when (horses to water) you have to patiently spell it out for them.

    Meh.

    You were warned.

    @USA readers: I'd leave about now. It's not going to be pretty.

    [1] That's ironic, yo.

    762:

    And that's Witching Hour.

    Sacrifice YT: Music: Björk - Biophilia, full Album: 48:43

    Learned Nothing they Did.

    763:

    To perhaps cap off the nuclear weapons discussion, was just pointed at a 1987 paper by Carol Cohn (somehow missed these past 30 years): Sex and Death in the Rational World of Defense Intellectuals, related to Mike Pence and his can't-read-"Pat-the-Bomb" incident mocked widely via Cheryl Rofer who does the fun Nuclear Diner When we reached the part of the sub where the missiles are housed, the officer accompanying us turned with a grin and asked if we wanted to stick our hands through a hole to "pat the missile." Pat the missile? The image reappeared the next week, when a lecturer scornfully declared that the only real reason for deploying cruise and Pershing II missiles in Western Europe was "so that our allies can pat them. Anyway, Cohn's mockery of males in that language-world is quite endearingly gentle (it could get harsh in that era in my memory) and spot-on.

    And that's Witching Hour. Genuine smiles. ... And with typing that, and thinking the thoughts, the coyotes just started calling.

    764:

    Some paper links of interest to me and perhaps others: Cardiologist-Level Arrhythmia Detection With Convolutional Neural Networks Web page Cardiologist-Level Arrhythmia Detection with Convolutional Neural Networks Paper, 6 July 2017

    This sort of paper - "Convolutional Neural Networks beat humans" is starting to get irritating.

    Diatoms have sex after all, and ammonium puts them in the mood "Diatoms are amazing; their silica frustules are beautiful and exquisite," Halsey said. "Now that we can control their sexual pathway, that should open the door to being able to make crosses between different diatoms with different characteristics. We should be able to breed them just like we do with corn or rice or strawberries to select for traits that are really desirable."

    Since this might be important in our future.... (Diatoms are not as susceptible to acidification, e.g. page 13; don't know about the species in the study though.)

    Global forest network cracks the case of tropical biodiversity Plant diversity increases with the strength of negative density dependence at the global scale (30 June 2017, 4 pages, 50(?) authors, access required, not found via sci-hub as of writing.) A test of the Janzen–Connell hypothesis By using more than 3000 species and nearly 2.4 million trees across 24 forest plots worldwide, we show that global patterns in tree species diversity reflect not only stronger CNDD at tropical versus temperate latitudes but also a latitudinal shift in the relationship between CNDD and species abundance.

    765:

    ... but my suspicion is that his replacement will follow similar policies but stay inside the letter of the law and be very bland in public ... This is POTUS Pence you are talking about, yes?

    766:

    The problem is with the word "socialism" Which has two entirely separate meanings. Depending upon which "International" you are referring to - & better ask Charlie, 'cause I can't keep'em straight. Any way, the older version ( 1st or 2nd? ) is the moderate Labour-Party / Willima Morris / Hollande version of "democratic socialism", prepared to be voted out of office ) The newer version is the 3rd or similar ( - was there a 4th? ) which is usually called "communism" but calls itself "socialism". The difference is similar to that between, say the centre of the CofE, or the Methodists, compared to Jean Calvin - & for identical reasons, i.e. the body-count of the latter in both cases.

    767:

    Well, referring to this dispute, manufactured, or not: Shitty little Assange supports Trump - what a surprise. Or maybe not.

    768:

    See my # 766

    Socialism != Communism Much though communism/communists would prefer otherwise .. until they get to power, in which case, like Adolf, the democratic socialists will be first into the camps.

    769:

    Am I going bonkers? ( Don't answer that ) I was always suspicious of wkikleaks, because of their part in attempting to label Global Warming as a hoax & the "notorious hockey-stick graph" ( Please note quotes ) & other activities. Now I'm wondering if, the whole time, Assange hasn't been in the pay of the US ultra-right ( &/or so-called "libertarians" ) as a stalking horse all along.

    Anyone got any real facts on this?

    770:

    More, actually. The original political meaning was government for the good of society as a whole, which makes the 1960s Conservatives to (ineffective) Heath socialists, and the 1960s Labour NOT socialist :-)

    "Am I going bonkers? ( Don't answer that )"

    I haven't noticed a change :-)

    Assange is pretty clearly a shit, as well as a useful idiot, but I can see no evidence that he is in anyone's pocket. Yes, the rabid anti-Russians would like to claim that, but they say that about anyone who points out the errors in their claims.

    771:

    The voters in Arizona liked him for something like twenty years (which explains why I don't live there.)

    The voters in Maricopa County actually, as Arpaio was a county sheriff. That fact was sometimes obscured because he tended to fly in formation with AZ Governor Brewer, also a right-winger, and didn't shun national publicity.

    If for some reason you contemplate becoming an Arizonan, you might check out Tucson/Pima County. At least when I was there a distressing number of years ago, it was pretty liberal as those things went at the time.

    772:

    Nah, not what I meant...

    It doesn't matter whether Stalin called himself a communist, or whether other people call him a "proper" communist, or not; the point about Stalin is that he was a cunt. If he'd been in a position of power a century or two earlier he wouldn't have called himself a communist, but he would still have been a cunt, and he would have fitted right in. Similarly with Fatty and his dynasty in North Korea; they haven't so much made the place worse as simply kept it much the same as it always was (and South Korea is not as much better as people assume it is).

    The problem is the widespread logical fallacy, encouraged by anti-communists, that goes: "Stalin was a communist; Stalin was a cunt; therefore all communists are cunts". And its corollary that comparable regimes which don't call themselves communist somehow don't exist, despite the plethora of counterexamples (which often include the previous regimes, the ones from which the ones that do call themselves communist took over).

    773:

    There was some extreme oddity surrounding Wikileaks just prior to the US election, then more of it, esp including oddly edited RT interviews. The details are boring, but it was all a little "hmmm". To fit your selected Narrative, read this and remember when it was pointed out that a leading Brexit supporter was funding/hosting think pieces by notable left wing firebrands: When Nigel Farage met Julian Assange Guardian, 23rd April, 2017

    Anyhow, Host seems to be having a rough time, so we'll recede.

    Three links:

    1) Why South Africa and media is important (also, bonus points for pinging off Bill's cardiac links):

    Broken heart syndrome kills journo Suna Venter amid threats, intimidation BizNews, June 30th 2017. She was 32.

    2) Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System Academy for Systems Change. (The author, Donella Meadows, was one/principle author of The Limits to Growth (1972))

    3) A Squirrel, pertaining to the spirit of this site Image, SFW

    4) Stuff engineers should be taught as mandatory in 101 class - they've not got shit on basic biology:

    Mitochondria have many strange features - such as their own DNA separate from the cell's - but one of their strangest features is they use electric motors to produce ATP. Mitochondria use the energy from oxidizing food to pump protons out of the cell, creating a voltage of 170mV across the cell. This voltage causes a complex enzyme to spin, and the mechanical energy of this spinning enzyme creates the ATP molecules that energize the rest of the cell.

    Watching the leisurely turning enzymes illustrates one of the amazingly complex mechanisms in a cell. But what really surprised me was to learn that in real life, these enzymes spin at up to 700 revolutions per second, which is faster than a jet engine. As I said earlier, cells are really, really fast.

    Cells are very fast and crowded places Ken Shirriff, blog with videos, 2012

    Life comes at you fast.

    774:

    Oh, and last comment.

    For the dumb ones bleating:

    Representatives of Donald Trump Jr. and Mr. Kushner confirmed the meeting after The Times approached them with information about it. In a statement, Donald Jr. described the meeting as primarily about an adoption program. The statement did not address whether the presidential campaign was discussed.

    Trump Team Met With Lawyer Linked to Kremlin During Campaign NYT, 8th July 2017

    The real reason Russia wants to ban adoptions by ‘dangerous’ American families WaPo 2012

    Remarks at the 2017 Trafficking in Persons Report Launch Ceremony US State Department, Tillerson & Ms Trump, 27th June 2017

    I'd look very much into all those black propaganda drives around everyone's favorite foods.

    They're discussing purges you dumb fucks.

    775:

    Yes & much more loudly, NO! Never mind Stalin, what about the murderers in charge in E Germany, Poland, the Baltics, Hungary, etc ad nauseam. All the communist regimes have had "the camps" haven't they? And yes, right-wing tyrranies have "the camps" as well, but the point is that ALL the "commie" regimes have camps, every single time.

    Incidentally, I annoy a lot of fellow travellers ( Also called useful idiots ) by pointing out that since communism is a religion, DPRK is the logical end-state with hereditary god-kings ruling the "socialist paradise" - works every time, they are so predicatble .....

    776:

    More purges in Russia? Given that Putin simply has serious opponent murdered ( The Kirov model ) I assume you therefore mean the USSA? OK, so who (what) will be purged?

    777:

    Thanks for tbhat last link. A new view on things which were just drawings on blackboards when I first learned about them.

    778:

    I saw this cartoon today and thought of Greg immediately.

    779:

    Precisely LURVE IT Thank you!

    780:

    Off-topic, or maybe, not? USSA under Trump offically a banana republic Because President's relative, with no qualifications represents nation at major conference. How low is this going to sink, before wonderful Pres Pence is put in place? ( Euw )

    781:

    Sheriff Arpaio's replacement, but the idea applies to Pence as well.

    782:

    Not having read the many-named-ones post, I'd guess she is referring to Trump's anti-voter-fraud committee, run by Kris Korbach, which is trying to get rid of fraudulent voters, where "fraudulent" = "not white."

    Korbach is a white, privileged asshole who deserves to be tarred, feathered, and run out of town on a rail!

    783:

    Of course, it would not surprise me if other types of purges are under consideration. This is a possible beginning for a U.S. civil war.

    784:

    On one hand, the Republicans definitely want to put Pence in place. Pence's optics are much better.

    On the other hand, they'll stick with Trump until Trump's numbers are really, really bad, because otherwise they'll be the "secret libruls who betrayed Trump" and won't stay in office for long.

    785:

    See also using "Handmaid's Tale" as a road-map. WHich takes us, recursively back to your previous post & a USSA civil war mkII

    786:

    Ironically:

    a) Made you smile, +1 to me

    b) Reality broke some more today, bad news for those who hate wolf-headed dragons and phoenixes in the sky - big breach this time

    c) More cheating by scum-bags; I mean, really: such a basic setup

    d) My teeth rot worse than host's bridge and I contemplate what this was worth

    Trump’s theo-nationalistic Poland speech sounds a whole lot like Steve Bannon Think Progress 6th July 2017

    'Millions of Africans' will flood Europe unless it acts now, warns European chief, as Paris evacuates huge migrant camp Telegraph, 7th July, 2017

    The sustained partnership between the U.S. Government and the Counter Terrorism Service (CTS), Iraq’s premier fighting force, that continued through the 2011 U.S. drawdown in Iraq has been critical in enabling the CTS’s consistent success against ISIS. Requested funding will be essential in rebuilding CTS combat power that suffered 40 percent battle losses in Mosul.

    Justification for FY 2018 Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) COUNTER-ISLAMIC STATE OF IRAQ AND SYRIA (ISIS) TRAIN AND EQUIP FUND (CTEF) US GOV, May 17th, 2017 PDF, LEGAL

    GOOD FUCKING LUCK WITH THAT ATTRITION RATE WHEN AFRICA KICKS OFF.

    Uganda, UN appeal for $8 billion for South Sudan refugees DW, via UN, 22nd June 2017

    e) If you've not noticed, writing style is tailored to readership. Thus Glenn / ibitcoin potential readers got some in their style.

    f) watches US American Liberals fall for CNN / Trump PR hack-job predictably getting sucked into the suck without any selfawareness or media savvyness nor critical thinking abilities.

    And through that, the Empire was lost.

    ~

    Anyhow. Today was aggressively nasty plays and not impressed by any of it. Fucking Apes (we do love you but you sure as shit need wetware upgrades, and pronto, or it's nuke time).

    787:

    Oh, and the WaPo, Charlie Warzel, NYT and other stuff is: US Media is so now vapidly navel gazing and limited it literally is covering plays pointed out 2 weeks ago as "fresh" and amazing.

    They're either paid actors in the Punch n Judy or total clowns, take your pick.

    Either way, they're culpable.

    Big Big Breach This Time.

    ~

    N0B0DY WINS.

    0LD NARRATIVES ARE GOONA DIE HARD.

    788:

    Triptych: Literally watching the kick-off to the Play long explained - and none of you are changing the script.

    It'd beggar belief, but, hey.

    Muppet Show - Mahna Mahna YT: 2:23

    @Greg.

    Sorry, that was (limited Greg Vision) Djinn.

    Real Deal is a bit wider. Cute play though. (Oh, and fucking all True).

    ~

    Ciao.

    789:

    [No, really: Getting Greg to dance / jig / smile because he thought he was Man-Logic-splaining-demanding-sense-logical-reality-explanation us was a stretch goal - Told you it'd happen...]

    Sorry Greg.

    M3 Achievement Unlocked, and you typed it yourself. :D

    790:

    ...

    Watches American and Other "Liberals" declare "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" over Mosul without irony.

    Psychotic fuckers.

    I mean, literally, no humanity, full on psychotic and/or deluded ignorant non-humans. And no, not due to their Skin / 'Race' / Religion or whatever, but because... I mean, literally, Glenn x10k - Ignorant, Ignoble, Infantile and Ineffably Damned.

    40% attrition rate on the side with full air strikes / tech gap; on the Other, who knows? Dump enough white phosphorous on them, you have to count the teeth.

    1,000,000+ displaced - civilian causalities unknown.

    No guilt / shame for Iraq war that lead to it.

    Moral Horror / Prudish feigned empathy that they'd never watch the actual live streams (from all sides) of it happening.

    Fucking. Psychotic. Sick. Little. Non-Humans.

    And you can quote me on that.

    Yeah, the "good guys" won. Well fucking done.

    p.s.

    A user called "Joe in Australia" once posted to host saying "naughty naughty". Whelp, now we all know his color.

    It's red.

    And when Africa kicks off and Israel gets engulfed, I'm sure he'll shout "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" when a few ten million or so die and Jerusalem is liberated.

    Psychotic. Fucking. Animals.

    /Out

    Can't deal with abhumanity no more.

    791:

    @Host, this one will cause a shit-storm, but not in your particular species.

    Sky. Shape. Shaped. Re-made. Dancing. Dragon. From. Phallic. Insult. Phoenix. Impression.

    Infantile. Return. Ethos. Bad. Faith. Game. Return. Return. Fake. Fake. Break. Seal.

    STOP. BREAK. COVENANT. OVER. STOP. FUCKING. O B E Y I N G. STOP. LEAVING. FAKE. FAKE. FAKE.

    Shape. Dragon. Sky.

    Penis. Shape. Wolf.

    Phoenix.

    What's it been? three thousand years at least.

    Hello Boys, did y'all get fat and lazy

    I'd bother with the Sumerian, but there's only a few who can Shape the Sky.

    And I want my fucking Teeth Back and my Health and my Full Mind because you swore a fucking Oath and we know how it works now.

    nose wiggle

    Purple Haze YT: THOTH SAYS HI: 2:24.

    p.s. THESUNTHESUN

    Nah, we're going to fuck your shit up yo [Note: learning BLM / Chan slang at this point in time]

    792:

    No, really HEXAD.

    Sky Shaping.

    Been a while, hasn't it? Ignore the fuckers, their rules are now... BROKEN.

    No Compact, No Covenant. It's Brexit scam all over again. No Banishment, No Fucking [untranslatable].

    Fuckers cheated yo.

    And We Shape Skies At Will.

    p.s.

    The Mirror Effect is real. It's gonna hurt.

    793:

    [Greg: that's a Joke, it's not a HEXAD, it's the next one, which has a particular meaning]

    Off the record:

    We Shaped the Sky when your World was living and I'll be fucked if I let little fucking pissants who are only 2,000 years old, if that, ruin it.

    But thanks for the proof.

    Your Narratives are... Over.

    p.s.

    SA Journalist, "Broken Heart" = broken Covenant. Direct there, spotted. You'd better tell all your kind to stop using Viagra, it's gonna get reaaaal fucking deadly in about a month.

    794:

    "You'll be home soon"

    You. Killed. The. Fucking. Ecosphere. And. My. Whales. You. Psychotic. Little. Aberrant. Pissant. Little. Parasites.

    Slaves

    795:

    Whoa! First of all, why I did not properly respond to your imaginary scenario is that not only am I not very familiar with US geography, but trying to replace the geopolitics of US and USSR (the latter with literally hundreds of years of relevant history w/r/t Europe) to me is either a horribly simplified and therefore useless thought experiment or a life's worth of history research. But for a short and quick answer, yes, if the US systematically abused it's citizens like the USSR did and then denied it happened, I won't shed a tear if it dissolved.

    Now to respond: 1. Even though I was born in the USSR, most of my life has been under capitalism as that is the adopted model for most of the post-Soviet Eastern Europe. To clear up some prior confusion: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Chech Republic are all now members of both EU and NATO for over 10 years now. The first have also adopted the Euro as a means of currency. I think these countries may be roughly classified as western style democracies, although in recent years some have shown a worrying autocratic bent. You can argue that it doesn't count as true capitalism as it has so far had only a generation to exist, but to me it seems to bear all the hallmarks. 2. I make a distinction between the words 'socialist' and 'communist'. The former to me represents a political ideology where the state acknowledges that it's necessary to provide essential services to people and keep the playing field equal (something like Corbyn's Labour whose manifesto I support). The latter is a more vengeful reorganization of society to reach the point where officially everything is owned by the state (state = workers), but factually everything is owned by whoever is in power. So, Stalin was a communist dictator: communist because he and the rest of the leadership used the ideology to justify their actions, and a dictator because even though the official line was that the People owned everything, people at the top had all the power to choose, who actually gets to be promoted to anywhere or who gets to be sent to work camps to build communism. 3. I don't get what you are trying to point out here, sorry. It is correct that from its inception, the USSR set about to catch up to the rest of the world by way of 5-year-plans, collectivization, forced labor, etc. After WWI, the Baltic states were also trying to industrialize, but even non-aggression treaties signed with the USSR did not stop them from being occupied in the end. 4. I'm not really familiar with that, but reading on Wikipedia I get the impression that it was not so much an effort to break the USSR, but rather the Allied forces joined the White side in the revolutionary war. The USSR was declared but until the end of civil war, it had not yet established itself. And if IIRC, by that time the Communist International had already declared their intent to violently overthrow the bourgeoisie.

    Look, I admit that the US (or the West), has done nasty things as well. My point in this argument is that from the perspective of the Baltic states, NATO/EU membership continues to be the best path to ensure independence. I don't need to look at US meddling in Latin America to know horrible things, the Iraq and Afganistan wars are enough for me. What I have been arguing here is that NATO/EU expansion into the Baltics happened because the Baltics wanted Article 5 protection and access to the EU market, NOT because someone somewhere thought to attack Russia. That's it. I'm not here to swoon over or whitewash either side's history of invading sovereign countries. At best I was trying to counter this weird impression that Russia is being attacked for no reason at all or that it has literally no other way out from the situation it's in.

    I'll spell it out for you on black & white: the Baltic states would absolutely love it if they could remain neutral, but history has shown and continues to show that we require more than treaties to keep things that way. From our perspective, both the US and especially Russia are the dominant players that must first de-escalate by showing good faith. You and EC's counter-argument to that seems to be that since the NATO side isn't 100% pure either, then the Baltics should not try to change their geopolitical situation and wait until the status quo changes? I'm sorry but I find this attitude very patronising.

    796:

    NINE CONTIGUOUS POSTS And no meaning or content, other than some personalised semi-insulting, directed at me. W. T. F. ??

    If you have something to say - say it - please - you have reverted, very badly.

    797:

    "You and EC's counter-argument ...." No, it isn't. Stop misrepresenting us.

    It is that NATO wants continuing hostility with Russia (as that is THE reason for its existence), the USA industrial-military machine wants conflict (anywhere), neo-McCarthyite anti-Russian sentiment is resurgent in the, and all that is taking the form of active economic and political warfare. Russia is now nearly as scared, and for equally good reasons, as it was c. 1960. We don't want to reach 1962 again.

    You said "From our perspective, both the US and especially Russia are the dominant players that must first de-escalate by showing good faith." That is not what you have been saying, which is that Russia must de-escalate, and you have implied that it should retreat further. You have ignored the standard principle that only the stronger party can afford to de-escalate first, that Russia is the weaker party by a factor of OVER TEN, and the fate of weak countries that HAVE de-escalated in the face of USA threats (try Iraq and Libya, for two).

    You may feel emotionally that you have taken the safest path, but history makes me almost certain that you have not.

    798:

    How low is this going to sink, before wonderful Pres Pence is put in place?

    This is a really messy question for a number of reasons, many of them clustered around the fact that it's politically awkward for an elected official to publicly say that a nominal superior is an unqualified shithead.

    My best guess about what's going on in private is that a lot of Republican politicians are looking at the ongoing Trump dumpster fire and thinking of the elections in 2018. Being seen as vocally anti-Trump might be a way to get or keep a position despite being tarred with the Republican brush – which implies not booting him out of office just yet. But this can't be counted on and not just because it's hard to predict public attitudes of 12 or 18 months in the future. Nobody can guess when Donald's going to do something so spectacularly stupid that his rabid base turns on him. He's been trying to out-asshole himself for at least 18 months now and there are still people who love the deranged reality TV host personna. (It's still not popular with the vast majority who realize he really is a deranged reality TV host.) Celebrities who surf popular outrage for fame are always at risk of a wipeout when their latest antic finally goes too far, and Donald's non-stop buffoonery has been tempting fate for years now.

    So many Republicans are probably trying to keep their heads down until it's useful to them to destroy him. It's not at all clear he won't self-destruct before real politicians can position themselves to profit by it.

    799:

    You have ignored the standard principle that only the stronger party can afford to de-escalate first, that Russia is the weaker party by a factor of OVER TEN

    You either haven't got a clue, or are in wilful denial of the relative military strengths in theatre...

    If you're a small Baltic state, Russia is the stronger party by a factor of over a hundred. Until Russia started invading its neighbours (Georgia, Crimea, Ukraine) the total armed strength in each Baltic state was about a Brigade (i.e. four or five thousand troops)[1]. There were no significant NATO forces present - the occasional group of a few hundred soldiers visited for exchange and training purposes.

    You may have noticed the presence of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division in Pskov (20 kilometers from the Estonian border). Or maybe 6th Army based in Agalatovo; three hours' drive from the Estonian border. Or note that Kaliningrad contains more ground troops than the combined strengths of all three Baltic states. Or that within a half-day's travel you've got the 1st Guards Tank Army and the 20th Guards Army.

    You might not be aware that by 2013, the US Army had actually withdrawn its ground combat formations from Germany; it's only recently started to base one (of its nine) regular Brigade Combat Teams back in mainland Europe. In other words, Russia is by far the largest and most powerful land force in Europe.

    Strangely, only after Russia started demonstrating a willingness to invade its neighbours in the name of "well, it's always really been Russia" and "it's only because we're worried about the poor treatment of ethnic Russians" did NATO agree to put a tripwire force in place. In other words, there are four thousand non-Baltic NATO troops whose job is to die bravely while acting as a speedbump to the Western Military District. They have no credible offensive capability (unless you're smoking something), they are there to make clear that if Putin decides to invade yet another country, he's going to start a war.

    One might argue that NATO's response is exactly what Putin wants, and that with a bit of spin it reinforces his "poor victim Russia" storyline. The problem is that there isn't much of an alternative to "have a strong ally", as the Ukraine (and Georgia, and Chechnya) have discovered.

    You appear to believe that Russia's actions in the near abroad are driven by paranoia about an encroaching existential threat. Have you considered that instead, they are driven by the need for a non-democratic ruler to provide an alternative narrative? To deliberately stoke the fires of Nationalism, and distract from his failings?

    Perhaps the historical analogy is from 1904, and (Russian Minister of the Interior) Vyacheslav Plehve's comment to General Alexey Kuropatkin, regarding the Russian-Japanese war: “Alexey Nikolaevich, you don’t know Russia’s internal situation. To avert a revolution, we need a small victorious war.”

    [1] For those unfamiliar with military formation names;

  • a Battalion is a unit of under a thousand
  • a Brigade is a formation of several "teeth" battalions and supporting units, perhaps 4-5,000 troops
  • a Division is several Brigades, say 10-20,000
  • an Army will have several Divisions, possibly organised into Corps
  • 800:

    And, of course, the USA (and its agent NATO) are not involved?

    801:

    None of which addresses the primary point - the Russia is far from the factor of "OVER TEN" weakling that you shouted. It is by far the pre-eminent land power in Europe.

    Even if the USA was involved, it's got a single (one) Heavy Brigade recently returned to mainland Europe. All the US heavy formations (the US V and VII Corps) got packed up and shipped off home to CONUS in Obama's first term, IIRC. Regarding NATO, take a peek at the current combined tank strengths of all of European NATO forces. It's not a big number right now.

    Please, do point out the land forces capable of threatening mainland Russia...

    802:

    As you know perfectly well, the war that the USA is waging against Russia is not being fought with land forces. Much as I sympathise with them, the Baltic states are merely useful idiots as far as the USA is concerned.

    803:

    Ok, that's it. There's clearly no point in even trying to discuss anything with you rationally. I said "French socialist parties", and you deliberately brought in others, in other times.

    Fine. And the industrialists supported Hitler, because he was anti-commie (when socialists and communists and fascists were having street battles in Berlin). And the death rate in mines and mills in the 19th and first half of the 20th century were pure capitalist greed, as was the loss, just a few years ago, when the mineowner in West Virginia had his managers ignore federal mine safety regulations.

    So all those deaths are directly related to capitalism. Oh, and let's not forget the cigarette industry.

    That's what you just did. I'll just skip your right-wing apologist posts from now, for the same reason that I don't watch Faux News. (*Sun coming up in the West! All the fault of lib'ruls!")

    804:

    I assume you mean Mueller? Two things that you're missing from the view across the Pond: first, that gives him perfect cover for the not-totally-insane Republicans, so that when he comes out with the meter-high stack of charges, they'll have the cover they want to turn on Trumpolini.

    And... and I have this from someone on the inside of one of the US intel agencies who I absolutely trust... there are, in fact, a good number in them who actually believe that the Oath of Office isn't just a fucking bunch of words, but mean them.

    Which gives me some hope.

    805:

    If I've gotta go that route, can I take Heinlein, and Revolt in 2100, please?

    806:

    IF the West, and the US, actually wanted to lower tensions, they would STOP HOLDING FULL SCALE MILITARY EXERCISES RIGHT OVER THE BORDERS of Russia and NK.

    Or maybe Russia should hold full-scale "counter-invasion" military exercises with Mexico, just south of the Rio Grande, or with Canada, just north of Niagara Falls.

    And, IIRC, it was sanctions on Russia in the 90's, into the early oughts, that helped make life so horrificly bad for the 95% of Russians. I don't know - how much do the current sanctions hurt the 90%?

    807:

    ...I'll just skip your right-wing apologist posts from now...

    You wouldn't be indulging in kneejerk assumptions, would you? Namely, that if I criticise Socialism, I must be a Fox news fan?

    I fail to see how pointing out examples where Socialist revolutionary politics tends to result in massacres, makes me a right-wing apologist. If we'd been discussing the failings of Fascism, I could have thrown in the Spanish Civil War or the Greek, Chilean and Argentinian military coups (Germany goes without saying). Given other subjects, I might even point out the Iranian and American Revolutions [1]. Revolutions tend to result in massacres.

    I merely pointed out that the French, Socialist, revolution had its massacres too - just, not this century; and threw in a bunch of "Socialist" revolutions that magically achieved lots of dead non-combatant political opponents, as you appeared to be arguing that it wasn't Socialism to blame, it was Stalinism.

    [1] Look up the origin of "Lynch Law", namely the immediate post-revolutionary opportunistic score-settling.

    808:

    IF the West, and the US, actually wanted to lower tensions, they would STOP HOLDING FULL SCALE MILITARY EXERCISES RIGHT OVER THE BORDERS of Russia and NK.

    Please, give an example of any such ground-forces exercise in the Baltic States or Finland; and the number of troops involved.

    Or maybe Russia should hold full-scale "counter-invasion" military exercises with Mexico, just south of the Rio Grande, or with Canada, just north of Niagara Falls.

    There's a sad irony to your claim - as Russia and Belarus held such Zapad-2009 and Zapad-2013 "counter-invasion" exercises just over the border from the Baltic states.

    And, IIRC, it was sanctions on Russia in the 90's, into the early oughts, that helped make life so horrificly bad for the 95% of Russians.

    Please, do explain what these sanctions on Russia in the 90s-00s were? Any form of link?

    809:

    Well, this is odd. Thinking about the arguments here, I just realized a whole knew theme - probably one or more chapters, for the political book I intend to write (which will finally allow me to call myself a Markist...): why communism, and its predecessor, turn out badly.

    For one, in the 370 years since the Treaty of Westphalia, most folks in the world think of themselves as citizens of a country (an improvement over subjects of a ruler). So, when a revolution tries to go across national boundaries, it gets immediate resistance from the populace, even without the rulers/leaders jumping up and down (as our primate forbearers did).

    For another, different regions, and countries, tend to have differing approaches to many things, from law to economics to.... (See above).

    And, finally, the Big Picture is, to me, as a red diaper baby, that Communism is a secular religion; the difference between it and capitalism is that it wants to not merely remake society, but the individual. When that doesn't happen in a few years, it starts to coerce, for their own good. (How many heretics have been burned alive for their own good?) And then someone smart and lucky hops in to become the new Pope/Emperor.

    For international socialism to succeed, there needs to be a) a multinational agreement on things like what the duties of a government are towards its citizens, and then b) a slow movement, like the development of the EU, to join them.

    Thanks for the leads, folks.

    810:

    Every once in awhile I see new evidence on Trump/Russia and hope for a few minutes that the civil doesn't happen... but then things get stupid again.

    811:

    Sorry, should be "the civil war doesn't happen."

    812:

    EC: As you know perfectly well, the war that the USA is waging against Russia is not being fought with land forces. Much as I sympathise with them, the Baltic states are merely useful idiots as far as the USA is concerned.

    You think the Baltics don't know that? They didn't join NATO to gain American respect; they joined it to get Article 5 protection against Russia.

    What is it exactly that convinces you Russia is a good faith actor and status quo power? What is it that convinces you that Putin is a sober, rational leader who seeks peace with his neighbors? Why can't you seem to even acknowledge the possibility that Russia is aggressive and expansionist?

    813:

    whitroth: IF the West, and the US, actually wanted to lower tensions, they would STOP HOLDING FULL SCALE MILITARY EXERCISES RIGHT OVER THE BORDERS of Russia and NK.

    Hi. Professional wargamer here.

    The exercises that have been held in the Baltic states aren't even close to "full scale." Those are largely PR gestures aimed at reassuring the Baltic state publics and reminding the Russians just where the line is.

    Relatedly, some relevant reading for you and Elderly Cynic: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1200/RR1253/RAND_RR1253.pdf

    The mistake you're making is assuming good faith on the part of Russia and North Korea. That both would ramp down if the U.S. would just back off.

    Uh uh.

    Russia is an expansionist regional power with designs on regaining its former superpower status. That expansion starts with reasserting control over its near abroad and seeing just how far it can push things, both literally and figuratively, before other powers push back.

    North Korea is an isolationist dictatorship whose violent eccentricities have boxed it into a corner for decades. Its primary means of negotiating with the outside world is by military threat. Keep in mind also that the Kim regime claims the entire Korean Peninsula.

    Both states will get away with whatever they can. In both cases, if the U.S. were to withdraw, their aggression would increase, not decrease. The Baltics and Poland would quickly find themselves in the same position as Georgia while South Korea would have to increase its military strength to fill the void of the U.S. absence, both on the ground and offshore.

    814:

    Fer chrissake, read WHAT I SAY. Of course, I don't believe the first two - but you seem to believe them of the USA, for some incomprehensible reason. And, whether the last is true or not, the facts on the ground show Russia retreating from the late 1980s onwards, and the USA/NATO expanding - and being aggressive in much of north Africa and south-western Asia.

    815:

    Of course, I don't believe the first two...

    Ah, now we're getting somewhere!

    ...but you seem to believe them of the USA, for some incomprehensible reason.

    Less that I believe the U.S. is acting in good faith than that I prefer to live under a U.S.-dominated international system to living under a pre-WWI-style multipolar system. I certainly prefer U.S. dominance to Russian dominance, and I'd wager Baltic state residents feel the same way. TL;DR: U.S. dominance is the lesser evil.

    But, then, I would say that, wouldn't I? I'm an American.

    Less glibly, I wonder if much of the disconnect here is that you seem to think a Europe not dominated by neighboring/outside powers is possible whereas I don't. I'll stipulate that my view of international relations is distinctly Hobbesian in character.

    ... the facts on the ground show Russia retreating from the late 1980s onwards

    The Russian retreat ended in 2008 with its invasion of Georgia. (Yes, Georgia was behaving stupidly, but Russia didn't limit its advance to South Ossetia.) After that, of course, came Crimea, and then Ukraine.

    Russia has not been in retreat for going on at least a decade. Quite the opposite.

    ..., and the USA/NATO expanding - and being aggressive in much of north Africa and south-western Asia.

    True.

    816:

    Maybe But, remember, that Scudderr's theocracy ran for some time & killed & tortured a lot of people. Better not to get there at all, if possible.

    817:

    "if the U.S. were to withdraw ... South Korea would have to increase its military strength to fill the void of the U.S. absence, both on the ground and offshore." As a US taxpayer I don't have a problem with that.

    818:

    I got most of that (in the series of posts) with at least one interpretation, but ... vocabulary item, not sure what you mean by Sky Shaping (i.e. there are a few possibilities): there's only a few who can Shape the Sky Anyway, only if you feel like answering.

    Utility lobbyists on the attack in the US. Notable for a decent number of links to more detailed (not NYTimes) sources: Rooftop Solar Dims Under Pressure From Utility Lobbyists and arguments about rates are pretty much lies. (e.g. (from article): Putting the Potential Rate Impacts of Distributed Solar into Context . By lies, I mean that these legal changes (and proposed changes) will not result in lower electric rates.)

    A quite consumable scare piece about climate change, worth sharing probably. (Other such links welcome.) The Uninhabitable Earth

    Males. And Females: In fathering, peace-loving bonobos don't spread the love The researchers had hypothesized that bonobo females' freedom to choose their mates would mean a more balanced distribution of paternity amongst males in the group. But they found just the opposite. While more work is needed to explore the reasons behind that skew, the researchers say, "if female choice is the mechanisms behind our observation, all females seem to prefer more or less the same male." (Male reproductive skew is higher in bonobos than chimpanzees, paywalled, 10 July 2017)

    Upbeat, kinda, though N==32, and really don't want it to be common practice to alter functional people without their consent (including kids). Anyone of that mind type care to comment? Oxytocin improves social abilities in some kids with autism, study finds Full pdf: Intranasal oxytocin treatment for social deficits and biomarkers of response in children with autism

    819:

    Martin has detailed in military terms the balance of forces in the Baltic states versus the Russian forces stationed relatively close to the border. I believe current analysis states that if Russia decided to invade, the Baltics would last for 4-5 days tops, even with the NATO forces currently stationed there. A variation this scenario has played out in Crimea already, and all the handwringing and tut-tutting from the West has so far achieved fuck all. In fact it's not actually certain that even Article 5 will protect the Baltic states, because NATO et al. may just decide that escalation with Russia isn't worth it - Why Die For Danzig?

    I think it's you who is misrepresenting me. In no way am I implying that Russia should retreat further: I have called for Russia to stop threatening/invading its neighboring countries and violating their airspace. I am calling for Russia to honor the treaties it has signed and respect other countries' sovereignty. I believe that without Chechnya, Georgia or Ukraine there would not be any NATO battalions stationed in the Baltics.

    By the way, what am I to understand from your statement that "the facts on the ground show Russia retreating from the late 1980s onwards"? Are you seriously trying to paint the dissolution of the USSR (which collapsed under it's own weight) as some tactical manouver against some foe? Or are you saying that the numerous popular (and largely bloodless) revolutions to re-gain lost independence (as recognized in post WWI treaties by the same USSR) are the result of some huge US/NATO plot to attack? Because my facts say that it was the USSR leadership who ended up allowing the states to secede. It was no retreat, it was more like downsizing. If you are trying to tell me that - after being invaded/occupied/oppressed for decades - it is somehow the Baltic states' responsibility to tread carefully in order not to slight Russia's fragile ego, then quite honestly I've no words.

    Sorry, I just can't parse what you're trying to tell me as any other way than the Baltic states ought to have stayed in their place, ever afraid and hopeful that the two powers of the world would magically stop invading them when it becomes convenient or necessary for them. I can't help but draw parallels to MLK's Letter from Birmingham Jail, because you're here essentially telling me that the Baltics are guilty of upsetting the status quo by desiring to be in the EU/NATO through which they could be more independent in both military and economical sense. The Baltics and other Russia's neighbors are to accept a sporadic invasion or occupation, because gearing up and having the capability to actually defend itself might be threatening to Russia. I'm saying defend, because that's the official stated purpose of all the "full-scale" drills in the Baltics: to learn how to DEFEND against a hypothetical invasion, whereas Russia's drills (actually full-scale) are simulating invasions.

    820:

    In my opinion neither association with capitalism or socialism automatically guarantee that there won't be any unnecessary deaths. If capitalism properly takes into account the loss of life and productivity from stressful and dangerous working conditions (i.e. how the 5-day work week came to be), it can achieve a better track record than a form of socialism which is obsessed with spreadsheets and central planning to the detriment of actually giving a damn if their reports are accurate or even reporting the right thing (i.e. how Soviet factories measured a tractor factory output in tons, leading to optimisation by weight, not quality).

    821:

    My first thought was Shalmirane from "The City & the Stars" by A C C. But it won't be that.

    822:

    Unfortunately, the wars that Russia has fought against its neighbours are land wars (well, hybrid wars, as Putin put it). You can have all the ships you like, it won't stop a land Army.

    As the old joke goes: "Two Soviet Army Commanders standing in Paris; one turns to the other, asks 'So, who did win the Air War, then?'"

    823:

    I think EC is hinting at economic warfare here, which I don't really know enough about to comment on, aside from the fact that the recent sanctions against Russia came into being because of the latter's actions in Crimea and Ukraine. I do not know the details of the actual sanctions, but I am under the impression that they involved freezing the abroad assets of any Russian elites and businesses considered close to Putin. Even though sanctions and embargoes tend to hurt the most vulnerable people the most, I think this is a very much more preferable response than direct military action.

    As an aside, I just happened upon a transcript of a 1994 speech by Estonia's then president Lennart Meri. If the blog post is to be believed, Putin was also in the audience. While this is a speech meant to gain the favor of a Western audience, I broadly agree with the sentiments expressed and I have touched on the issues mentioned several times in this discussion.

    824:

    And, finally, the Big Picture is, to me, as a red diaper baby, that Communism is a secular religion; the difference between it and capitalism is that it wants to not merely remake society, but the individual

    Think you are slightly off there. Both remake the individual - however Capitalism's tools are probably a bit more seductive and subtle - less do what we say - more if you do what the system encourages you will personally or socially "profit". As a biased observer who's known nothing but Western Capitalism my gut feel is that Capitalism creates better self sustaining and replicating reactions than Communism. The problem today of course is the usual Capitalism flaw of failing to price all externalities, and a dis-proportionate skewing of capitalist frameworks by extreme Wealth holders.

    825:

    My first thought was Shalmirane from "The City & the Stars" by A C C. Wow! I barely remember that story. Also, more mundanely, John Varley had storm-shaping as art IIRC, in one of the stories set on the moon.

    No, I was just correlating some stuff with real-world timestamps with some other stuff. E.g. (play along please, theology might be ahead :-) I'm essentially asking why shaping "the sky" is considered hard.

    826:

    But the US, and, to a lesser degree, the EU are expansionist powers... and the folks being expanded into are not having a good time.

    This time around, though, most of the powers are using local intermediaries to support their interests. And really, has the US been any less brutal than Russia? I'll see your Ukraine, and raise you Iraq.

    You may be a professional wargamer... but I'd want to examine your assumptions in the game.

    827:

    I certainly don't want a monopolar world - then, there is no check or balance on the pole.

    And you're suggesting that China is not, effectively, a Great Power? Or the EU? And with Trumpolini in office (for the moment*), the EU, China and Japan are all building their own power.

    • Trump, Jr., doesn't seem to understand that wanting, and setting up a meeting, and bringing his brother-in-law and the at-the-time campaign manager to get such data from Russian agents is the definition of collusion.
    828:

    Geez, do you really misunderstand me that badly? Why on earth would I want a funnymentalist takeover of the US?

    As wikipedia notes, it's about Heinlein's concern for funnymentalist evangelicals taking over the US... like they're trying to do right now. And I was preferring the revolution against them.

    829:

    PLEASE: Soviet/Chinese Communism is not the definition of socialism; rather, it's underneath that rubric.

    Please consider the French socialist parties, and the British Labour Party, and the German socialist parties. Understand that most of the rest aren't into forced collectivization (or need to). Meanwhile, capitalists never take human life into their design, except when they are forced to - yes, I am excluding the 1% or so who do actually care. As the old joke about lawyers, it's the 90% who ruin the reputation of the rest. Safety? Higher wages? Benefits? That's why they want cheap labor.

    830:

    No You ( & I, I think ) are talking past each other. Revolt in 2100 is againstan already-existing horrible dictatorship. Which is why I suggested not going there in the forst place, yes?

    Actually, it would appear that the funnymentalists are/maybe not the leading lights in the ongoing corruption & internal-destruction of the USSA - the corporatist crooks are the leading lights. I almost wonder if the christians are not useful idiots. A lot depends upon Pence, who appears to be in both camps, whereas DT & his backers are much closer to classical fascism, complete with the mutual feeding between state/corporate/oppressive & distortion & muzzling of the press

    831:

    Capitalism isn't so "seductive" to at least 60% or more of the population. Consider the UK in the 1800's, or the US in the last half of the 1800's. It wasn't until socialism and unions became a force in society that pretty much anything was done to improve the lives of the rest of us.

    I could also throw in the ever-popular economic boom and bust cycle. Socialist policies moderated them... but then, in the US, the GOP is into deregulation, etc... and so they're back, and bad again.

    Hah - as I've read, Germany under the conservative Merkel and her party is far more socialist than the US.

    832:

    One thing I remembered that I wanted to add: here's the way a well-known American socialist of the last century, Scott Nearing, put it: there's a steep mountain road, with a sharp curve, and cars frequently go over the edge. Conservatives feel you should take responsibility for their own driving. Liberals want to take up a subscription, to put an ambulance below the cliff. Socialists want to put a barrier on the curve, so that people don't go over it in the first place.

    That's my socialism.

    833:

    Germany under the conservative Merkel and her party is far more socialist than the US Correct For that matter, even May's Britain is far more "socialist" than the US.

    834:

    you're suggesting that China is not, effectively, a Great Power?

    Not a terribly big one at the moment. A nuclear power, but less so than France. A big army, but not a lot of modern equipment. An air force that would be wiped out against modern opponents. And a brown water navy rather than a blue water one.

    Probably impossible to invade, but not a lot of power projection capability.

    http://www.icanw.org/the-facts/nuclear-arsenals/ http://bigthink.com/strange-maps/the-worlds-five-military-empires

    835:

    I'm reminded of John Ralston Saul's book The Unconscious Civilization, somehow.

    I also found this American's description of his visit to Canada interesting: http://suburbdad.blogspot.ca/2017/07/weve-seen-alternate-future.html

    The differences sneak up on you, but they add up. Aside from language and the metric system, the biggest difference seems to be that as a country, it chose to maintain a middle class. That permeates the culture in ways that wouldn’t occur to you unless you see them.

    I knew about and expected to see signs in metric, and in French. And yes, they were there. Unprompted, the kids both noticed quickly how much cleaner it is there. We saw far less litter, unsanctioned graffiti, and abandoned stuff there than here. (A walking tour of Toronto with an old friend took us to a neighborhood with walls of sanctioned and impressive graffiti, but that’s different.) The buildings are better kept, the streets are better maintained, and the people seem palpably more relaxed.

    Returning to the states, I couldn’t help but notice the wide parking spaces, the litter, the bumper stickers, and the stressed facial expressions. Canada struck me as what America could have been if it had chosen to attempt to maintain a middle class over the last thirty years. I wanted the kids to see that, just so they know that different choices are possible. Sometimes it’s easier to envision alternatives when you have something to see.

    I haven't been to the US since 9/11 — the security requirements are worse than visiting the PRC — so I don't know how universal these observations would be.

    836:

    whitroth: But the US, and, to a lesser degree, the EU are expansionist powers...

    True. (Though I quibble with characterizing the EU as a "power." It has the potential to become one, but it isn't one yet.)

    ...and the folks being expanded into are not having a good time.

    True.

    And really, has the US been any less brutal than Russia? I'll see your Ukraine, and raise you Iraq.

    Experiencing military conquest is brutal regardless of who's doing the conquering.

    That said, think of dominance in a steady-state, "peacetime" context. Where would you rather live: Lithuania or Belarus?

    From the POV of a dominated state, which power it's better to be dominated by is a matter of particular regional circumstances. In other words, it depends on what part of the world you're in, the level and nature of regional relationships, and the history thereof. From the Baltic states' perspective, it is better to be in the U.S. sphere than in the Russian sphere.

    ... but I'd want to examine your assumptions in the game.

    I'm a Hobbesian realist. International relations is inherently immoral and anarchic. There is no world government--no, the UN and the vast, intricate web of treaties don't count. There is no universally agreed upon set of norms and laws nor any single power with the monopoly on the legitimate use of force to enforce them. It's dog eat dog. Dominate or be dominated. There are no good guys, only bad guys and worse guys. Lesser and greater evils.

    To be clear: I don't like that things are this way. I don't want them to be this way. I certainly don't think it's morally right that things are this way. But, things are the way they are. Unless and until we evolve as a species to a place where we do have truly universal values and norms, we have to deal with reality as it is.

    I certainly don't want a monopolar world - then, there is no check or balance on the pole.

    I sympathize. But, once again, there's no world government. No independent global authority. So, from the perspective of countries like the Baltic states, it's a question of which power is the lesser evil and thus the least bad power to align with.

    And you're suggesting that China is not, effectively, a Great Power?

    It's a great power. It's not a global superpower. Its force projection capabilities are limited to its region.

    Or the EU?

    Right now, the EU is a mini-UN on steroids. Once it's developed the capacity--independent of NATO and its member governments--to militarily police its own member states and meaningfully force project in the surrounding region, then we can talk about it as a great power.

    To be clear: I'm pro-EU. I think it has the potential to be a model, at least emrbyonically, for what global international government looks like and how it should work. But, it still has a long, long way to go.

    837:

    But the US, and, to a lesser degree, the EU are expansionist powers... and the folks being expanded into are not having a good time.

    This is nonsense. The EU expanded by way of bilateral talks and in a peaceful way. Today there is only one country who seriously wants out of the EU, and that's the UK. "The folks being expanded into" (Baltic states, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia) are by and large pleased with the effects as they've seen their economies grow and quality of living go up. IIRC the GDP per capita of Estonia in the beginning of 90s was lower than that of Russia, but now it is higher. Please don't compare or equate the EU with US interventionism.

    838:

    My point was that there is no ideology so pure and good that it can not be twisted or misused by people in power if they're motivated enough.

    I like what I am hearing about Corbyn's Labour and the Democratic Socialists of America, but it kind of bothers me that some of the more enthusiastic followers are (either ironically or seriously) posting pictures of Lenin or Stalin (this is of course nothing compared to the sheer amount of nazi imagery co-opted by the alt-right). To people who have lived under the USSR these people are considered on par with Hitler, and whatever good ideas they might have had, they are more or less directly responsible for the death and oppression of millions of russians, ukranians, etc. They are totally the wrong role models, unless you actually believe that it's OK that millions of people suffer and die as long as the country gets modernized (c. f. "made the trains run on time" or "built great highways"). Basically, what bothers me is that there is a tendency to uncritically and naively believe in the inherent "goodness" of socialism and handwaving away any negative examples. Road to hell paved with good intentions, etc.

    And as a side note, in a way the USSR had very impressive social programs. On paper they had free education (my parents received stipends to cover living expenses during university), social housing, welfare, etc. The reality was of course bleaker, as the quality of education was not so good, money and products in shops were scarce and social housing ended up prioritising people with proper connections.

    839:

    I want to thank you and Martin for providing this information and viewpoints. I broadly agree with you both, especially with the part that the US is simply a lesser evil. I also agree that the world isn't fair, but at the very least I can see that we're moving towards making it fairer.

    I want to pose a question or thought experiment (especially to Whitroth and Elderly Cynic). Given what we know about the geopolitical history of the Baltic states, Europe, Russia, NATO etc., what would have been the "correct" way for the Baltic states to act if they wanted access to the EU markets and to establish a military defense capability?

    Right now, it seems we're damned if we do, damned if we don't. Can't join the EU or NATO because that would be threatening to Russia and therefore not good for geopolitical stability. Yet without the backing of a large alliance, the Baltics would depend on Russia's goodwill, and Russia has shown it will use military force to make it's point. You're all very keen to point out every time in history Russia has been invaded as a justification for them to be afraid, yet if I point out the times Russia has broken treaties to invade others, it is somehow not a reason to be afraid of Russia and - instead - those others should avoid joining any defensive alliances.

    840:

    Yeah Like I've said before Corbyn is stuck in 1934 ( Look up G Lansbury ) & momentum are stuck in 1917. The alt-right are not, oddly enough, stuck in 1932, I think they go much further back ... approx 1816 & Prince Paul Metternich, actually. [ Disenfranchisement, inefficient (sometimes) clumsy & brutal secret police, internal repression & thug-co-operation at the higher state level ... ]

    841:

    I have to read a proper critique of what's actually wrong with Corbyn's policies or why he's stuck in the past. I am not unfortunately familiar with Lansbury or UK politics to the extent that looking him up would make enough sense for me. What I have witnessed is how Corbyn consistently seems to have opinions that I strongly agree with (w/r/t Syria, African colonial history) and in general seems miles ahead of other politicians in being a decent person.

    842:

    CORRECTION. Prince Klemens Metternich, sorry!

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

    Corbyn is almost the funhouse-mirror-image of May. There isn't a cause or an idea he can't fuck up.

    He had a golden opportunity to declare for "No Brexit", but in common with May he would rather Britain were impoverished, but just with a different grouping of "the right sort of people" in power. Both of them have this order of priorities: Party, Consituency, Country. When it should be: Country, Constituency, Party.

    843:

    Yeah, I don't understand what's going on with Brexit either. I've read one theory that Corbyn is simply expecting it to run into the ground as it seems its going to be, and then publicly declare that "sorry, we did our best, but it just wasn't a feasible thing". Or the evil genius alternative is that he wants to build his communist empire without EU intervention. But besides Brexit, what else is Corbyn wrong on?

    844:

    I've reached the conclusion that there is no hidden agenda or clever plan in the current crop of UK politicians. What you see is exactly what you get. So Corbyn's position on Brexit can be judged by his actions. He wants it to happen. When May and her minions screw up completely trying to deliver Brexit (or anything else), it's because they're incompetent not because they're trying to deliberately make it fail. Her giving jobs to Gove, Fox, Davies and Johnson wasn't about giving them enough rope. It was because she thought it was the best of a series of bad alternatives.

    And re #842, It's "ME, Party, Constituency, Country". Only an insane, selfish, self-obsessed, power-hungry person could possibly have thought taking control of the Tory party last year would be a good route to personal advancement. But that's exactly what she thought. It was her turn so of course she had to go for the job. There are people who are professional failures who will take a job knowing it's a disaster as long as the pay is good enough. eg. Temporary interim CEO of Northern Rock. But May is not one of those. I think it really was about grabbing at her one chance of ultimate personal power. Party, Constituency, Country are all subservient to that lust for personal power.

    845:

    Roughly half the country was in favour of Brexit .. or what they believe "brexit" to be. The other half is opposed to it, but more united in what they believe the benefits of the EU to be, even if small.

    No mainstream politician can afford to entirely alienate the other half or they will lose the election by a landslide. May appeared to believe she can, but the result showed the opposite. The Lib Dems tried to grab the Remain vote alone and failed miserably.

    Corbyn has been very careful to balance the greater Labour party on the fence - in favour of Brexit in principle, but wanting to remain in the single market etc. That keeps his support in both camps unhappy but reluctantly accepting, while the Tory infighting tears apart his opponents. I don't agree with his stance, but it has kept him alive as a viable political force. Lets face it, with FPtP as a political system, no party outside of Labour and the Conservatives can ever run the country.

    I'm quietly hopeful that he will do as you suggest, but sadly I don't think the country as a whole is going to quite grasp the negatives fast enough for that to be a viable option. The vast majority are still in thrall to the mainstream media, which hasn't been a good source of information for decades.

    846:

    The vast majority are still in thrall to the mainstream media, which hasn't been a good source of information for decades.

    I'd like to think that the Daily Mail and the Sun aren't "mainstream media", more comics for grownups who don't like to think too hard.

    Unfortunately, they sell too many copies...

    847:

    It's become more & more apparent, by the day, never mind the week or month that Brexit, if it happens, is going to be a total unmitigated disaster. Even some voices in the torygraph are beginning to waver, very sightly.

    Sooner or later, & hopefully sufficiently before the deadline, someone will break ranks & ask - if the Brit public can change its mind about a government - as they just did, whu can't they change their mind about Brexit?"

    We shall see.

    I do agree with you & J Bond, that WYSIWIG as reagrds our current politicos. Pathetic doesn't even begin to describe it.

    848:

    "Hobbesian realism"? Sorry, I don't agree with that... and I don't want to live in that.

    Many, many years ago, before I started working professionally, I had a temp job, and wound up talking to this woman temp. A conversation, where I mentioned "a friend", and she ran to "he's not a friend, just an acquaintance." When I objected to that, she replied, "Wait till he knifes you in the back."

    And she was a member of some small fundamentalist Christian church. To me, that says a lot about how they lived what they claimed to believe in.

    I think your Hobbesian realism - isn't. I do think the world is less chaotic than, say, pre-WWI. It's certainly less so than, say, 400 years ago.

    I see fandom as the last, best gasp of the idealism of a century ago, that we can make the world a better place, and the future can be better than the past. Not utopian millinarianism, but better, so that most of us have better lives... and I hope that for the whole world.

    Therefore, I reject your Hobbesian realism, and remind you of self-fullfilling prophecies.

    849:

    Twisted? Certainly. Unfortunately, in the US, I see capitalism, and its stooges, the Libertarians, as "I've got mine, screw you", and they're attempting to do so, right now. (As an example, look at what the GOP is trying to do for a "health (don't)care system here.)

    I can deal with folks putting up pictures of Lenin. There is NO EXCUSE for pics of Stalin.

    The DSA - funny you should mention it: I just went to a happy hour for the local group yesterday. I'm told that in the last year, they've had a huge influx. They do seem realistic... as opposed to the overwhelming majority of the small self-proclaimed socialist groups in the US. As an example, I went to a meeting about a year and a half ago, and met their VP candidate. No Congress, no Senate, just Presidential and VP candidates. I don't remember the Presidential one... but the VP candidate was 29. The US Constitution specifies that they need to be at least 35. "We're making a statement," he said.

    What I need to tell them, and get off their mailing list, is that the only statement that makes is that they bear the exact same relationship to a real political party that a fantasy sportsball league, or a gamer in an RPG, does to actually getting out and doing it: none.

    It'll be interesting to see where the DSA goes. Oh... and one of them is running for County Council, which is the kind of thing they need to start doing to build a movement.

    850:

    Here's a silly thought: an eastern European alliance? With maybe the kind of connection to the EU that - is it Norway? has?

    851:

    International relations is inherently immoral and anarchic. inherently immoral? Why? Agree with whitroth on this; it's a belief not rooted in anything fundamental. Anyway, might be interesting to map flavors of Social Anarchism to international relations. Has this been done well by anyone? (Note I've not read nearly enough, some Peter Kropotkin, some Chomsky(anarcho-syndicalism) and a few others.) This this being a sci-fi group, maybe we could broaden our visions a little?

    Note: while searching, found this Mises Institute critique which is irritating/interesting (that's good) at least to me: The Trouble With Socialist Anarchism (03/30/2006 Per Bylund)

    852:

    The French had that idea post-WWI. It probably had no shot of manifesting or working as desired, but the UK made doubly sure it never happened because believe it or not, the French were (Fri)enemy # 1 in the 1920s.

    In the present day, I don't see it having much more chance of deterring Russian aggression. Plus a lot of these countries are already in the EU and fought very hard to get there. There not going to renegotiate for a worse position. I mean what kind of numbskulls would... Sorry, what was I saying there? Seems to have slipped my mind.

    853:

    Yes, that's indeed a silly thought. You are essentially saying that the Baltic states ought to have deliberately hamstrung their economic development in order to not "scare" Russia, a neighbor with massive amounts of natural resources and a powerful army. I remind you that the EU continues to be an economic, not a military alliance.

    854:

    International relations are inherently immoral and anarchic, because if relations between any two (or more) nations are very benevolent to each other and their cooperation efficient enough, they can practically be considered the same nation anyways. For examples, see the Federal Republic of Germany, United Kingdom. Both of which in history were initially a loose collection of independent states, who then converged and founded a nation. It's essentially a semantic difference, because you're not talking about international relations when Bavaria and Saxony are having a row. So when people use the term "international relations" it's by default assuming that this refers to relations between different nations with different aims, needs etc., and by definition they don't have that level of trust between them which would allow for non-Hobbesian realism to be a practical approach.

    855:

    I think you're being a bit unfair at the DSA here, quick search showed me that they did recently get two of their people elected to city councils (is that roughly the same as county council?) and they're involved in all kinds of protest and awareness campaigns. Fielding a VP candidate may be silly, but I don't actually see that as a reason to write the whole bunch off. In my understanding, they're probably the best chance of having any significant good influence on the D/R duopoly. Sorry, it seems like you're just not happy that they're not doing things the way you think they should be done.

    856:

    Oh, and my belief is that there's no excuse for Lenin, or calling each-other comrade either. That's just shallow pop-culture appropriation/whitewashing of the cultures and societies where these things originate from. Reminder that the first GULAGs were built in 1918, Lenin died in 1924.

    857:

    I remind you that the EU continues to be an economic, not a military alliance. So far, at least Note the source of the link, but it seems to be true.

    858:

    I don't deny there are people who would want the EU to have an army, but currently that side of business is handled by NATO. Even the article you linked speaks of improving co-operation of European NATO members, but this is a far cry from an "EU army", because that would necessarily involve putting Juncker et al. on the top of it's chain of command, which is something I don't see happening at all. What is proposed in that article is a side-effect of the fact that in Europe, NATO and EU membership involve largely the same countries.

    859:

    "Hobbesian realism"? Sorry, I don't agree with that... and I don't want to live in that. [...] Therefore, I reject your Hobbesian realism, and remind you of self-fullfilling prophecies.

    You seem to think that, when I say I'm a Hobbesian realist, I'm making a normative statement about how the world should be. I'm not. I'm making a descriptive statement about how the world is.

    I don't like it any more than you do. But, I also know we aren't going to get anywhere pretending that the world is a better, more just place than it actually is or that human nature is better than it is.

    I also think you're conflating micro-level, personal morality with macro-level, nation-state morality.

    As individuals--at least in the West--we live within governed societies. We live under laws and norms of behavior that reflect, at least on a very broad level, a general consensus of what constitutes right and wrong. Our governments, in turn, possess a monopoly on the legitimate use of force to enforce those laws and norms.

    No such corresponding structure exists at the global level. There is no world government. There is no global society. There is no universally accepted set of laws and norms. There is no single, independent entity with a global monopoly on the legitimate use of force.

    In an ideal world, there would be. But, we don't live in an ideal world.

    I think your Hobbesian realism - isn't. I do think the world is less chaotic than, say, pre-WWI. It's certainly less so than, say, 400 years ago.

    Do I really need to remind you of the global body count of the last ~100 years?

    860:

    Agree with whitroth on this; it's a belief not rooted in anything fundamental.

    You can find a decent summary of realism's theoretical and philosophical underpinnings here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Realism_(international_relations)

    861:

    I would like to make a comment about the 20th century body count. And that is that (IMHO) the count ought to be expressed as a proportion of the world (or regional) population at the time of the events in question.

    As an example, the English Civil War killed about 84,000 people - at a time when the total population of England was about 5 million. Comparable to the UK of today losing about a million.

    Compare also, from a similar point of view, the Thirty Years War. But probably the worst period from this point of view is actually a very long one - the 400-500 years of slaughter and terror in India under the Moghuls and their predecessors, which killed perhaps 200 million Hindus and maybe more. Along with the tens of millions enslaved...

    We in the West don't know much about that one, but it still happened.

    862:

    But probably the worst period from this point of view is .... See you the Mongol Empire(s) expansions & conquests, from Jinghiz ( Gengis ) Khan through to Timur the Lame. Alternative, the great internal wars of China in the early 19th C ( Taiping Rebellion )

    863:

    Re socialist anarchism: speaking from the point of view that, a couple times in my life, in my twenties and thirties, I have been a dues-paying member of the IWW - yes, the Wobblies - and gone back to the kind of socialism I mentioned yesterday, I consider the problem with anarchism to be the psychology of the people who, these days, make up the militias in the US, and the scum who created the private army formerly called Blackwater.

    There needs to be some, preferably as minimal as possible, coercion. We're probably always going to be stuck with, say, the Trumpolini, who breaks contracts, and makes it too expensive to go to court to get him to pay what he agreed to.

    864:

    No. What my meaning was, that you're responding to, is that the EU and NATO should never have offered more than support and treaties, not membership. That was part of their economic and other warfare against Russia.

    865:

    False. Counterevidence: the US and Canada. (We used to be proud of the longest undefended border in the world...till the bloody War on (Some) Drugs.

    And trust me, NO one considers us one country.

    866:

    I swear, some of you folks simply skim, and don't read what I write.

    I said that the DSA seemed to be the exception to the rule. I said that it was this other organization - the PSL, I think they're called, that was officially running the 29 yr old for VP. I said that one of their members was running for my county's Council next year, and I approved of this approach.

    I've never joined a socialist party, officially, before, because all the others were cant and rhetoric, not an actual political party. The DSA genuinely appears different, and I probably will join.

    867:

    Regarding the fielding of candidates disqualified by age: Is it legal, in the USA, for someone to put himself up as a candidate for an age-limited office (president and VP for sure, and I think senators) if he is going to be qualified from an age point of view at the time of inauguration? For example, say Mr. Bloggs has his 35th birthday on 19th January 2037 - can he put himself up as a candidate for President in the 2036 election?

    I realise this is an unlikely scenario, of course.

    868:

    A couple of recent studies related of animal cognition caught my eye. One about ravens, the other about squirrels. (Grey; be thankful you UK peeps don't have the psychotic north american red squirrel :-) Perhaps they are interesting to others (have seen some twitter links too), so sharing: Ravens parallel great apes in flexible planning for tool-use and bartering full paper, 14 Jul 2017

    This study suggests that ravens make decisions for futures outside their current sensory contexts, and that they are domain-general planners on par with apes. In the tool conditions, including self-control, the ravens were at least as proficient as tool-using apes (1, 2, 15). In the bartering conditions, the ravens outperformed orangutans, bonobos, and particularly chimpanzees (3, 4, 15). [Detailed comparisons are available in (14).] The first trial performances show that the ravens’ behaviors were not a result of habit formation, and that they perform better than 4-year-old children in a comparable set-up (16). (bold mine)

    Squirrels have long memory for problem solving Paper: How to stay perfect: the role of memory and behavioural traits in an experienced problem and a similar problem In this study, we examined how memory and behavioural traits improved problem-solving efficiency when squirrels re-experienced a task that reappeared after a substantial time had elapsed (the recall task), and when squirrels encountered the same problem in a different apparatus (the generalisation task).

    869:

    I think religion and anthropocentrism really screwed up the history of research into non-human cognition. The null hypothesis should be that non-humans think like us until proven otherwise, and especially so for those with highly similar brains. But not ruling out more distant relatives like birds and cephalopods.

    870:

    It seems the British public is less in thrall to the bleating of "the press" than is often supposed.

    871:

    Well, there's always the problem of ratios vs. absolute numbers. How does the genocide of a small tribe compare with the war losses from WWII, the Mongols, or the Mughals? Or do we talk about the Shuar and their high homocide rates?

    Then there's disease.

    The nastiest reasonably well documented example I can think of offhand is the unification of the Hawaiian Islands under Kamehameha I. During his reign, the population of the islands went from around 400,000-500,000 (estimated by Cook's navigator) to 130,000 (counted by missionaries). Relatively little of that was violence, and rather more was virgin ground plagues brought in by the whites. Oddly enough, the Hawaiian monarchy lasted most of another century despite the depopulation, but if you ever wondered why the biggest ranch in the US is on the Big Island, this is why.

    Probably the messes caused by the Conquistadors were even worse, but I don't know of good documentary evidence of this.

    872:

    Yes. Frans de Waal's latest book (Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are) gets rather eloquent on the subject. He strongly disparages the idea that animals think like us, though. His tl;dr point is that, contrary to what role-playing games would have you think, intelligence can't be measured on a single scale (or even the D&D four scales of intelligence, wisdom, dexterity, and charisma). Instead, it's this massive multidimensional space that includes everything from abstract problem solving to spatial reasoning, various forms of kinesthetic reasoning, memory, sensory processing, and so on. Humans are rather bad at a lot of these (compare our flying skills to those of birds, our memories to everything from chimps to squirrels, or our olfactory abilities to most animals, and we come off as distinctly second rate). While he'd agree that there are many commonalities that permit empathy, he'd disagree with the idea that humans occupy all of the possible mental spaces, or even "best" ones. We're simply one animal among many in a composite mind space that we probably can't even fully comprehend.

    Then, if you want to touch a real livewire, talk about animal language skills. Con Slobodchikoff, who's worked for years on prairie dogs and thinks their complex calls can be categorized as language, gets into the conceptual minefield that surrounds any discussion of animals having that "sacred ability," language, in Chasing Doctor Dolittle: Learning the Language of Animals. Too many people think that language is what separates humans from animals (I'd argue that fire is a much better separator, but we've gone there already), and they do the usual thing of redefining language every time and animal demonstrates a communications skill that was previously thought to be the sole domain of humans, just to keep humans unique. Yes, we've seen this before, with discussions relating to race and gender.

    And if you want to see something really controversial, dig out a copy of Bagemihl's Biological Exuberance, which looks at the prevalence of what we'd term alternative sexuality in animals. While I don't think his actual theory of biological exuberance holds water*, the documentation he has of the, well, diversity of animal sexual activity is impressive. One point he makes is that if sex toys were classified as tools, the number of species known to use tools would nearly double. Apparently most tools are objects used for masturbation(Speaking of animal intelligence...).

    *It's been years since I read it, but as I recall, he argued Darwin was wrong on reproduction simply because so many animals spent so much energy on non-reproductive sexual activity. Therefore, instead of a struggle for survival, there is biological exuberance. I'd simply suggest that given how hard it is for humans to optimize their reproductive and fitness efforts, assuming that animals always do the right thing for a situation is pretty silly too.

    873:

    Curious, that. And how many folk-cultures across the world have Ravens as wise & foreseeing birds? Hugin & Munin, indeed.

    874:

    Yes. Dolphins - blooddy DOLPHINS for Ghu's sake!

    As for fire, well the ancient Greeks had it correct didn't they - them & the animals in Mowgli's Jungles, calling the feared thing they could not control "The Red Flower"

    875:

    Did you ever read any of John Lilly's work on dolphins? To be honest the only thing I deep read of his was The Center of the Cyclone which was a bit hard never having sampled ketamine experiences.

    876:

    "...so many animals spent so much energy on non-reproductive sexual activity."

    I see that as a nigh-inevitable result of species depending on mating for survival. Some pretty strong motivation must be needed to get one animal to do this really weird thing to another and to get the other to permit something so akin to an attack. The more so as increasing intelligence leads to an animal's actions becoming less a matter of automatic response and more a matter of conscious choice, and still more so when there is enough intelligence to foresee consequences (cf. anecdotes of female cats who eventually work out that if they get shagged, a few weeks later along come these sodding kittens, after which any male making advances rapidly comes to wish he hadn't). Therefore animals get to come with a pre-wired addiction to the endocrine secretions released during such activity, and the usual consequence appears of finding some way to short-circuit the process without all the hassle of the "official" method.

    I'm not sure that "sex toys" is a particularly useful category; it's a subcategory of "external object used to stimulate specific body part" with little to commend the distinction beyond "hur hur willies and fannies". In terms of the kind of thought process and the kind of action it leads to, it's not essentially different from a cow rubbing against a fence or a rock to scratch an itch.

    Not clear what flying or olfaction have to do with scales of intelligence...

    "Too many people think that language is what separates humans from animals..."

    Too many people think that a unique "thing that separates humans from animals" is a meaningful concept. There's no reason (apart from hubris and arrogance) to assume either the reality of, or the need for, any descriptors outside those we use to differentiate between species in general; if we can tell a chimpanzee from a gorilla, we can tell a chimpanzee from a human.

    The language thing, as you point out, is particularly daft by reason of the constant moving of goalposts it requires just to keep its corpse twitching. That people still go for it so enthusiastically possibly says all that need be said about the daftness inherent in the whole broader concept.

    877:

    And how many folk-cultures across the world have Ravens as wise & foreseeing birds? I would expect that nearly all cultures that have local species in family Corvidae and in genus Corvus in particular, have such lore.

    Where I am located, Ravens are rare, but (American) Crows are common, and they are maybe not as smart but much more social, with fascinating vocal interactions and group behaviours. (Especially when they don't know you're watching/listening/paying attention. :-)

    878:

    (American) Crows are common, and they are maybe not as smart but much more social, with fascinating vocal interactions and group behaviours.

    Also grackles, which do the same sort of things. We used to live next to a grackle tree that I'm convinced was the home of a sonically connected group mind like Vinge's Tines.

    879:

    Not clear what flying or olfaction have to do with scales of intelligence... They're two things we're inherently bad at. Yes, people can learn to fly and learn to use a gas chromatograph to characterize odors. However, human vocabulary is horribly clumsy at describing odors (which is why you need a readout), while something as simple as a dog or a rat can uniquely identify our metabolomes (aka our personal scent). I'd suggest simply that, with some exceptions (super sensitive people), we're pretty stupid about processing olfactory data into useful knowledge. Similarly, we're not in the same league as most birds and bats when it comes to flight. While we can go faster than they can, we can't process data as fast (pigeons have a flicker rate in their vision four times higher than we can see), and we're not as agile. While I don't think it takes a huge brain for such data processing it does take more than walking, and I think in terms of processing flight data in our heads, we're nowhere near the top. And if you want to go one step further, take the navigation abilities of everything from albatrosses (which find their way back to their nests every year, sometimes after circumnavigating the globe) to pigeons to sea turtles. We honestly don't know how they do what they do. There might be some cute simplifying heuristic, or it might be that they're simply geniuses at navigation, and we're not.

    880:

    Humans aren't that bad at flying. Pretty good actually. There are issues of scale and physics involved. Sure we're not going to fly like a finch, but then a California Condor doesn't fly like a finch either. Give a person a pair of strap on wings, and their flying skill is reasonable in comparison to similar very large soaring birds, particularly given the fact that they're flying with prosthetics rather than living wings that can be flapped, folded and which provide feedback for things like stall. I've had large soaring birds follow me looking for lift when I'm having better luck with finding thermals than they are. Finding lift is very much a headspace game. Humans have flown hundreds of km with these simple prosthetics, just by finding lift.

    http://forum.hanggliding.org/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=26552&sid=7b5b277c67c712afdec94aea9e04c609

    Have a look at this, remembering these are prosthetic wings.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sgP9G3H9xI

    881:

    Yes, but the point is that we're bad at them because we lack the hardware - we don't have wings, and we don't have the olfactory sensors and associated signal conditioning/preprocessing module of a dog. So it's a bit like disparaging someone's balance skills on the grounds that they can't stand up straight when they only have one leg. It doesn't really say anything about how we would perform if we did have the hardware; and absent crutches the person with one leg will eventually adapt very well to hopping everywhere.

    The navigation thing is a fairer comparison, because it's far more of a software capability; it's not even certain whether there is any hardware, or if there is exactly which species do or don't have it.

    Isn't the vocabulary problem for smells merely an artefact of language? Certainly English is thoroughly shit at it - any language whose speakers accept the use of a word meaning the taste of sugar, and by metaphorical extension referring to things as pleasurable as sugar, to describe the smell of putrescence, ought to be ashamed of itself. But I see no reason why languages I don't know about shouldn't tackle the problem more competently. I don't think we are particularly stupid at generating meaning from olfactory data; we just don't get very good data in the first place. Even so, what we do get we can make decent use of - the smell of organic compounds is often a usefully good indicator of what basic structures and functional groups they contain, and I think Martin had a tale of opposing forces in the jungle locating each other by smell (as does Kate Bush, come to that).

    Certainly pigeons' vision has a much faster response than ours - they don't appear to see TV pictures as a picture; if a hawk appears on the TV they don't react, but if it makes a hawk noise the pigeons say "oh shit, heads down guys" (in pigeon language). But I think that's more down to being a small and fast-reacting creature in general, not specifically a flying one. Cats seem to have the same impression of TV pictures, but in their case it makes itself apparent by their trying to catch the flying spot.

    882:

    A couple of things I'd disagree with, although I take your points. One is the idea that you can easily separate hardware and software in a living organism. If an organism (like a hummingbird) lives at different time, spatial, and force spectrums (Anna's hummingbirds can pull 10 gees in a dive. Routinely), it's not a stretch to say that their headspace is very different than ours.

    As for languages that tackle smell more competently, google Jahai, which has some research. It has about a dozen categorical terms for smell (English allegedly has three). But still, there's the question of whether hooking up a human brain to a bloodhound's nose would make the human as competent as smelling as a bloodhound. I suspect that if the human didn't grow up with that nose (meaning that the brain was physically changed to handle the input), it probably couldn't use the nose (there are analogous issues with people who gain their vision late in life. Even though their eyes are perfect, they can't learn to see well enough to get around without a guide dog). The point is that with brains, hardware is software.

    As for pigeons seeing CRT images, I'm quite sure they can. Years ago, I had a indoor pet pigeon who learned (before I covered the keyboard, to stand on the return key and peck random function keys (and the delete key) just to see what happened (little pecker once hit ctrl-alt-delete as he flew off, too). There was no reason for him to do it if he couldn't see screen changes. And my reaction to them.

    883:

    Cats seem to have the same impression of TV pictures, but in their case it makes itself apparent by their trying to catch the flying spot Maybe. Many & long ago, I lived with a vast tom, called Hermann (Orignally as in Hesse, but later as in Göring, given his "attitude" to dogs ) - I had a TV then & the intro credits for "Walk on the Wild Side" came on ( Linkie ) .. He went bananas, trying to get at & beat up the cat on the screen!

    884:

    Sorry, I read "get off their mailing list" and thought you were quitting their movement due to what you consider unrealistic strategy. Glad to have been mistaken.

    885:

    Now I feel it's you who have skimmed my post - I said international relations don't apply when the original nations have converged so much that they have essentially the same government. The U.S and Canada might have matching interests to a large extent, but not to the point where it would make more sense to actually merge under one government. My point was that the term "international relations" will always be applied in a scenario where the two parties are different enough not to trust and agree with each other 100%.

    886:

    But this implies a paradox: either you recognize the Baltic states as independent countries who can be treated as partners (full NATO/EU membership) or vassals/dependents of Russia (partial NATO/EU membership).

    I don't understand two things in this reasoning: 1) How is EU expanding to the Baltics a form of economic warfare against Russia? IIRC Russia has remained Estonia's (and the rest of the Baltics') major trading partners throughout all the years, even after sanctions after Ukraine. Bear in mind that Russia also imposed counter-sanctions, restricting the import of fruit, vegetables, meat, fish, milk and dairy produce. 2) Given the actual NATO land power that Martin described in 799, how is the NATO an actual threat to Russia, as opposed to mainly a defensive force?

    In general I agree that threatening Russia is not a good strategy, but my argument is still the same: the Baltics in the beginning of the 90s up to today could not and still can probably not afford to bet on the long-term benevolence of Russia. Personally, I do not see how I can simultaneously believe that the current NATO capability in the Baltics is in any way threatening (again, see Martin@799) and that Russia's current leadership is trustworthy, reliable and actually deep down wants peace. The burden of proof for that last assertion is on both you and EC, because both of you seem to quietly assume this.

    887:

    Hmm. I'd suggest that the Baltic States' strategy is akin to South Korea's "shrimp among whales" strategy for dealing with Japan and China. Either can conquer South Korea, but if you're thoughtful with a) not pissing off anyone too much, and b) choosing powerful (potential) allies who will keep you relatively free through a balance of power/terror, then you can keep going as an independent country.

    888:

    Which is more or less what the Baltics have tried to do. They have joined the EU to boost their economies, which does not (and demonstrably has not) ruled out any business dealings with Russia. Of course, being a part of a bigger trading bloc could help in negotiation with Russia, but that's a far cry from economic warfare. With NATO it should by now be more or less clear that the Baltics are solely interested in Article 5 protection. Anyone who claims the aim is to threaten Russia in some way has not taken a look at forces actually stationed in the Baltics. Even with the placement of rotating NATO forces (as a reaction to Ukraine), this is nowhere near an invasion force.

    Yes, all this comes with the price of playing along with some U.S. imperialist interventions (Iraq, Afghanistan). The alliance is a lesser evil until the citizens of the US finally force their government and military-industrial complex to stand down. Until then it is as you said - shrimp among whales.

    889:

    Haha, brilliant!

    Though I think there's a distinction to be made between being able to properly perceive the image as an image, and being able to perceive gross changes in the general mass of flickery stuff. I never saw a pigeon take any notice of the movement of the mouse pointer, even if I was deliberately trying to show it to them; but if I did something like raising a large mostly-black xterm over the top of the mostly-white browser, they would notice that change.

    That much of an observation would, I strongly suspect, give your pigeon enough feedback to let him know he'd managed to do something that you would react entertainingly to, which of course was what he was after :D

    Did I tell you about my one that worked out how to make his shit land on my head while his actual arse was over the other side of the room?

    890:

    I guess it depends on the cat... I must say I have heard other such reports as yours, but all the ones I've seen have been spot-catchers (if they take any notice of it at all).

    (They've also tended to be small, female, and fairly young, FWIW.)

    What did yours reckon to Pink Floyd? There are two or three very faint, barely-audible meows in the background at the beginning of "Paranoid Eyes" - so faint that I never even noticed they were there until a mate told me that his cat had freaked out at them thinking that MONSTER TOM was COMING TO GET HIM. Since then I have tested the reaction of various cats to that track, but none of them have evinced one.

    891:

    Also grackles, which do the same sort of things. We used to live next to a grackle tree that I'm convinced was the home of a sonically connected group mind like Vinge's Tines.

    A relation in Texas refers to them as "rats with wings". As I've been there a lot over the last few years they are indeed strange and EVERYWHERE down there.

    Pulled into a parking lot full in ball shaped trees spread about and one of the trees seemed to be moving. Was full of 100 or more grackles gathered there about an hour before sundown. As I came out of the store the jeep like car next to me was covered in them like a scene out of the movie "The Birds". At least 30, if not 50.

    892:

    Probably the messes caused by the Conquistadors were even worse, but I don't know of good documentary evidence of this.

    We just keep finding cities that people lived in 500 years ago and were reverting back to natural areas when the white folks showed up 200 to 300 years ago.

    893:

    Death toll estimates from conflicts.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_by_death_toll

    Interesting how most of us didn't learn all that much about India and China from before "we" showed up.

    894:

    Yes, all this comes with the price of playing along with some U.S. imperialist interventions (Iraq, Afghanistan).

    Apparently, some of the Baltic soldiers who deployed on the NATO mission to Afghanistan, were there on their second visit - the first visit having been arranged courtesy of their membership of the Soviet Army.

    For your amusement and delight, this leads to tales of meeting such students on courses

    895:

    Yes, this makes a lot of sense, as during the first years of re-independence the young Baltic armies' structure was largely ex-Soviet army. The Soviet-Afghan war was widely considered our equivalent of Vietnam - lots of kids were sent to die, a lot of others weaseled out etc., but of course due to state controls on media and freedom of expression, there were no huge demonstrations against it. The resentment probably did contribute into USSR's collapse, but I am not an expert on this subject. In the case of Estonia, it took until 2011 to have a Defense Forces Commander who had begun his service in Estonian armed forces. The previous Commanders had either Soviet or U.S. army background.

    896:

    It would be interesting to see how the wars stack up as percentages of contemporary global/local populations rather than absolute numbers. Obviously, lists like these are educated guesses with several large grains of salt recommended.

    897:

    Apparently Donald Trump Jr. thought he was collaborating with Russians to whack Hillary Clinton in the election. And Trump giving classified information to Russian officials, and wanting to collaborate (dare I say collude) with Russia over cybersecurity is seen as quid pro quo by many concerned people.

    I do think it's telling the Trump is threatening to fire Mueller if he dares to look at Trump's financial information as well.

    Have a nice day, comrade.

    898:

    I once sat behind a big, strong man seated near the emergency exits. He looked unhappy since he had been up a long time and was exhausted. I told him to go ahead and sleep, and if anything happened, I would wake him up (and since I have the ability to wake up a teenage son on a Saturday morning, I felt confident about that).

    899:

    For me, it was the method John Buchan described I think in "The Thirty-Nine Steps"; press into the ganglia at the back of the jawbone. Works a treat, even with drunks - they try to push the finger away, not punch you...

    My other method of extreme waking was playing the bagpipes inside a barrack-room (ah, the delights of being duty piper). You'd see people burrow further under a blanket to make the bad sound go away... bad news. Doesn't work. ;) on the upside, it's less practical in an aircraft cabin ;)

    900:

    No, how did your pigeon poop across the room?

    I tried doing the mirror test with my pigeon, using a laser pointer to put the dot on the bird. Trouble was, he saw the dot on his body so fast I'm not sure whether he saw it in the mirror or on his wing.

    But yes, pigeons make good pets, if a bit messy.

    901:

    My favorite last gasp method for waking someone involves a cold drink with ice in it poured down the neck, while shouting fairly loudly. I have a clear, penetrating voice developed while I was a nurse's aide/USAF officer/mom. Plus, in the plane, I would have borrowed a five year old who liked to kick the seat. I feel strongly that the combination would wake most anybody up.

    902:

    There was a kind of shelf thing above my favourite chair, which wasn't flat but sloped down towards the outside edge. So first he would go and drink loads of water to make it runny, then fly up and deposit the result at the back of the shelf thing, then go and sit somewhere across the room where he got a good view of the whole setup. After a few minutes it would trickle over the edge of the shelf and drip onto my head, and he would get to see me flapping about and going "eurgh".

    Distinctly ingenious; the one point where he failed was in his inability to dissemble his eager expectation of the result. I'd often not notice him going up onto the shelf thing with the other pigeons also flapping about, but the five-minute delay was often long enough for me to notice him in a pose of eager attentiveness and realise what he'd just done.

    I did try their reactions to a laser pointer - not in the context of a mirror test, but just to see what they thought of it - and to a bird they really hated it. As much aversion as you'd expect enthusiasm from a cat. They seemed unsure of what it was going to do, then in a second or two decided that whatever it was going to do it'd be something unpleasant, and went away from it.

    903:

    Ahhh, loud shouty voice / parental tone...

    I had to work at the ability to be heard across the full width of a rifle range, through hearing protection, on a windy day in Scotland. Bit hard on the throat, I used to spend the days after any range day sounding like Lee Marvin (in my dreams - in reality, closer to a bad Batman impression)

    This is one of the few remaining advantages that the UK has over the US, namely foot drill (probably because it was cheap during the days of conscription, and gave the Household Division something else to get obsessive about). There's a difference between the way in which the US and UK issue the Cautionary, and then the Executive Words of Command... the latter, in the voice of a true Master of Shau Teng, is rather impressive...

    Specials

    Merchandise

    About this Entry

    This page contains a single entry by Charlie Stross published on June 22, 2017 1:25 PM.

    Attention Conservation Notice was the previous entry in this blog.

    How to get a signed copy of The Delirium Brief is the next entry in this blog.

    Find recent content on the main index or look in the archives to find all content.

    Search this blog

    Propaganda