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A Wonky Experience

A Wonka Story

This is no longer in the current news cycle, but definitely needs to be filed under "stuff too insane for Charlie to make up", or maybe "promising screwball comedy plot line to explore", or even "perils of outsourcing creative media work to generative AI".

So. Last weekend saw insane news-generating scenes in Glasgow around a public event aimed at children: Willy's Chocolate Experience, a blatant attempt to cash in on Roald Dahl's cautionary children's tale, "Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory". Which is currently most prominently associated in the zeitgeist with a 2004 movie directed by Tim Burton, who probably needs no introduction, even to a cinematic illiterate like me. Although I gather a prequel movie (called, predictably, Wonka), came out in 2023.

(Because sooner or later the folks behind "House of Illuminati Ltd" will wise up and delete the website, here's a handy link to how it looked on February 24th via archive.org.)

INDULGE IN A CHOCOLATE FANTASY LIKE NEVER BEFORE - CAPTURE THE ENCHANTMENT ™!

Tickets to Willys Chocolate Experience™ are on sale now!

The event was advertised with amazing, almost hallucinogenic, graphics that were clearly AI generated, and equally clearly not proofread because Stable Diffusion utterly sucks at writing English captions, as opposed to word salad offering enticements such as Catgacating • live performances • Cartchy tuns, exarserdray lollipops, a pasadise of sweet teats.* And tickets were on sale for a mere £35 per child!

Anyway, it hit the news (and not in a good way) and the event was terminated on day one after the police were called. Here's The Guardian's coverage:

The event publicity promised giant mushrooms, candy canes and chocolate fountains, along with special audio and visual effects, all narrated by dancing Oompa-Loompas - the tiny, orange men who power Wonka's chocolate factory in the Roald Dahl book which inspired the prequel film.

But instead, when eager families turned up to the address in Whiteinch, an industrial area of Glasgow, they discovered a sparsely decorated warehouse with a scattering of plastic props, a small bouncy castle and some backdrops pinned against the walls.

Anyway, since the near-riot and hasty shutdown of the event, things have ... recomplicated? I think that's the diplomatic way to phrase it.

First, someone leaked the script for the event on twitter. They'd hired actors and evidently used ChatGPT to generate a script for the show: some of the actors quit in despair, others made a valliant attempt to at least amuse the children. But it didn't work. Interactive audience-participation events are hard work and this one apparently called for the sort of special effects that Disney's Imagineers might have blanched at, or at least asked, "who's paying for this?"

Here's a ThreadReader transcript of the twitter thread about the script (ThreadReader chains tweets together into a single web page, so you don't have to log into the hellsite itself). Note it's in the shape of screenshots of the script and threadreader didn't grab the images, so here's my transcript of the first three:

DIRECTION: (Audience members engage with the interactive flowers, offering compliments, to which the flowers respond with pre-recorded, whimsical thank-yous.)

Wonkidoodle 1: (to a guest) Oh, and if you see a butterfly, whisper your sweetest dream to it. They're our official secret keepers and dream carriers of the garden!

Willy McDuff: (gathering everyone's attention) Now, I must ask, has anyone seen the elusive Bubble Bloom? It's a rare flower that blooms just once every blue moon and fills the air with shimmering bubbles!

DIRECTION: (The stage crew discreetly activates bubble machines, filling the area with bubbles, causing excitement and wonder among the audience.)

Wonkidoodle 2: (pretending to catch bubbles) Quick! Each bubble holds a whisper of enchantment--catch one, and make a wish!

Willy McDuff: (as the bubble-catching frenzy continues) Remember, in the Garden of Enchantment, every moment is a chance for magic, every corner hides a story, and every bubble... (catches a bubble) holds a dream.

DIRECTION: (He opens his hand, and the bubble gently pops, releasing a small, twinkling light that ascends into the rafters, leaving the audience in awe.)

Willy McDuff: (with warmth) My dear friends, take this time to explore, to laugh, and to dream. For in this garden, the magic is real, and the possibilities are endless. And who knows? The next wonder you encounter may just be around the next bend.

DIRECTION: Scene ends with the audience fully immersed in the interactive, magical experience, laughter and joy filling the air as Willy McDuff and the Wonkidoodles continue to engage and delight with their enchanting antics and treats.

DIRECTION: Transition to the Bubble and Lemonade Room

Willy McDuff: (suddenly brightening) Speaking of light spirits, I find myself quite parched after our...unexpected adventure. But fortune smiles upon us, for just beyond this door lies a room filled with refreshments most delightful--the Bubble and Lemonade Room!

DIRECTION: (With a flourish, Willy opens a previously unnoticed door, revealing a room where the air sparkles with floating bubbles, and rivers of sparkling lemonade flow freely.)

Willy McDuff: Here, my dear guests, you may quench your thirst with lemonade that fizzes and dances on the tongue, and chase bubbles that burst with flavors unimaginable. A toast, to adventures shared and friendships forged in the heart of the unknown!

DIRECTION: (The audience, now relieved and rejuvenated by the whimsical turn of events, follows Willy into the Bubble and Lemonade Room, laughter and chatter filling the air once more, as they immerse themselves in the joyous, bubbly wonderland.)

DIRECTION: Transition to the Bubble and Lemonade Room

Willy McDuff: (suddenly brightening) Speaking of light spirits, I find myself quite parched after our...unexpected adventure. But fortune smiles upon us, for just beyond this door lies a room filled with refreshments most delightful-the Bubble and Lemonade Room!

DIRECTION: (With a flourish, Willy opens a previously unnoticed door, revealing a room where the air sparkles with floating bubbles, and rivers of sparkling lemonade flow freely.)

And here is a photo of the Lemonade Room in all its glory.

A trestle table with some paper cups half-full of flat lemonade

Note that in the above directions, near as I can make out, there were no stage crew on site. As Seamus O'Reilly put it, "I get that lazy and uncreative people will use AI to generate concepts. But if the script it barfs out has animatronic flowers, glowing orbs, rivers of lemonade and giggling grass, YOU still have to make those things exist. I'm v confused as to how that part was misunderstood."

Now, if that was all there was to it, it'd merely be annoying. My initial take was that this was a blatant rip-off, a consumer fraud perpetrated by a company ("House of Illuminati") based in London, doing everything by remote control over the internet to fleece those gullible provincials of their wallet contents. (Oh, and that probably includes the actors: did they get paid on the day?) But aftershocks are still rumbling on, a week later.

Per The Daily Beast, "House of Illuminati" issued an apology (via Facebook) on Friday, offering to refund all tickets—but then mysteriously deleted the apology hours later, and posted a new one:

"I want to extend my sincerest apologies to each and every one of you who was looking forward to this event," the latest Facebook post from House of Illuminati reads. "I understand the disappointment and frustration this has caused, and for that, I am truly sorry."

(The individual behind the post goes unnamed.)

"It's important for me to clarify that the organization and decisions surrounding this event were solely my responsibility," the post continues. "I want to make it clear that anyone who was hired externally or offered their help, are not affiliated with the me or the company, any use of faces can cause serious harm to those who did not have any involvement in the making of this event."

"Regarding a personal matter, there will be no wedding, and no wedding was funded by the ticket sales," the post continues further, sans context. "This is a difficult time for me, and I ask for your understanding and privacy."

"There will be no wedding, and no wedding was funded by the ticket sales?" (What on Earth is going on here?)

Finally, The Daily Beast notes that Billy McFarland, the creator of the Fyre Fest fiasco, told TMZ he'd love to give the Wonka organizers a second chance at getting things right at Fyre Fest II.

The mind boggles.

I am now wondering if the whole thing wasn't some sort of extraordinarily elaborate publicity stunt rather than simply a fraud, but I can't for the life of me work out what was going on. Unless it was Jimmy Cauty and Bill Drummond (aka The KLF) getting up to hijinks again? But I can't imagine them doing anything so half-assed ... Least-bad case is that an idiot decided to set up an events company ("how hard can running public arts events be?" —don't answer that) and intended to use the profits and the experience to plan their dream wedding. Which then ran off the rails into a ditch, rolled over, exploded in flames, was sucked up by a tornado and deposited in Oz, their fiancée called off the engagement and eloped with a walrus, and—

It's all downhill from here.

Anyway, the moral of the story so far is: don't use generative AI tools to write scripts for public events, or to produce promotional images, or indeed to do anything at all without an experienced human to sanity check their output! And especially don't use them to fund your wedding ...

UPDATE: Identity of scammer behind Willy's Chocolate Experience exposed -- Youtube video, I haven't had a chance to watch it all yet, will summarize if relevant later; the perp has form for selling ChatGPT generated ebook-shaped "objects" via Amazon.

NEW UPDATE: Glasgow's disastrous Wonka character inspires horror film

A villain devised for the catastrophic Willy's Chocolate Experience, who makes sweets and lives in walls, is to become the subject of a new horror movie.

LATEST UPDATE: House of Illuminati claims "copywrite", "we will protect our interests".

The 'Meth Lab Oompa Loompa Lady' is selling greetings on Cameo for $25.

And Eleanor Morton has a new video out, Glasgow Wonka Experience Tourguide Doesn't Give a F*.

FINAL UPDATE: Props from botched Willy Wonka event raise over £2,000 for Palestinian aid charity: Glasgow record shop Monorail Music auctioned the props on eBay after they were discovered in a bin outside the warehouse where event took place. (So some good came of it in the end ...)

1674 Comments

1:

Dear lord, its amazing. The mind does boggle.

I see Generative AI as a hot thing in photography, with replacement skies and other such tools. While I accept removing things from an image (heck, Ansel Adams did it!) , adding things to an image that were never there has always made me uneasy. Generative AI is an evolution of that concept, gone wild and mad.

2:

Sorry to be that guy, but as a fan as a kid I have to do this: The book is "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory" NOT Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory, which is the name of the 1971 film with Gene Wilder, no idea why they changed it except Hollywood logic is sometimes weird.

3:

please stop blaming the tool for the fool (and/or grifter) who uses it

ain't ChatGPT's fault an evil man (and/or stupid man) utilized it

this is as if I blamed the cabbage for Liz-the-Wiz (which I don't) or network television for T(he)Rump's high profile with American voters (which I do)

guns don't kill people, the store that sold the gun to they guy who shot the gun is more to blame for not upholding laws... with legislators being most to blame for being bought by Big Gun lobbyists...

{ yes I know it was a lettuce but cabbage sounds better when read aloud... cabbages are simply more suited to slapstick comedic sendups... I suspect its the higher fiber content and being less prone to wilting }

4:

big adjustment by Hollywood, instead of black Oompa-Loompas were made orange... in later years the author was overt in his bigotry

as to the naming of movies... it's weird to recall this but the movie marquees were limited in number of letters and lots 'n lots of titles got trimmed down to fit... so... count the letters in both versions and also the spaces

"close encounters of the third kind"

IIRC... ended up in my childhood neighborhood as

"close encounter 3 kind"

5:

I like the way they got the bot to apologise for itself and it was no better at that than it had been at the original task.

6:

Nothing material is easy.

The ur-grift is the idea that somehow, that can be changed.

Before there is anything like language, there's expensive signals; if it costs to send it, it's a credible statement.

What we're seeing is a bunch of tech-priest grifting where the immense expense of running the grift is meant to convey that there's utility lurking in the device beyond its inevitable function as a staggeringly expensive space heater.

There's a lot to be said about how you can use computers to implement paradise, or at least that place where everything material is easy; it's a core trope about what computers do, and so far as I can tell, even knowing what computers actually do does not render one immune. (Vinge!) Anyone at all really ought to know better than to think you can materially implement adjectives, but here were are, again.

It ought to be funny, and maybe if it wasn't an enshittification accelerator it would be.

7:

I saw a headline for this but didn't read past the first few sentences. I had no idea where it was located or that it was much worse than those few sentences I read implied.

Wow.

8:

The purpose of the stunt might have been to make generative AI look bad.

9:

even knowing what computers actually do does not render one immune.

It's a repeating cognitive bias in humans. Early 19th century had it bad with steam power (hell, the popularity of steampunk as a genre today is a throwback to that mindset of just under two centuries ago). It was superseded by electricity, and then by "air mindedness" in the 1920s-1940s, although aviation hit the thermodynamic wall in the 1960s, and space -- with today's propulsion systems -- is a specialized fork of aviation tech with higher energies but exponentially greater distances.

It's no accident that as the exponential increase in transportation speed/decrease in price of transport plateaued out by the early 1970s -- its last gasp wasn't Concorde, it was the rapid spread of multimodal containerized freight that cut the cost of bulk shipping by 98% -- the exponentially increasing curve of computing power took over and exhibited the same cognitive bias towards unlimited progress.

10:

I wonder if it could be reenacted for Glasgow WorldCon. Karen Gillan has said she wants to be in any film version.

11:

Yeah, I try to avoid the AI thing, because the expectation of results like this goes with the package.

At the very least one would need to put as many billions of dollars into developing a 'self-critiquing' function as was put into the 'generative function' for AI to be useful, but it really goes beyond that. We've previously discussed how to build true AI here, and what's being created is barely an idiot-savant. (In fact, an idiot-savant would rightly be insulted if compared to an AI...)

Essentially what's built is a job-stealing machine without any useful function, and the errors it can make with even the best, most expensive programming make it useless even for writing advertising copy. And it steals from everyone and everything, probably even from other AI.

12:

We've previously discussed how to build true AI here, and what's being created is barely an idiot-savant.

What's being touted here as "AI" is not AI. It's a marketing label that's been slapped on top of large-scale statistical models trained on gigantic gobbets of input data (of dubious quality because it's hoovered up off the internet without adequate vetting).

It's a gold rush targeting VCs and PE investors with deep pockets now the shine was worn off cryptocurrency and apps and the dot-com boom. It's particularly inflamed right now because interest rates have risen and the startups need to bring in shitloads of revenue to pay off their funders.

This coincides with the press being butchered by the same PE corporations that have bought up publishing houses to milk the titles they own for goodwill built up over generations, as the behavioural advertising market slowly tanks (it was always a long con, but google rode it to a trillion dollar market cap).

I repeat: AI is part of a multi-headed hydra of a bubble that has inflated in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis caused by the previous bubble (housing, loads, credit default swaps) exploding. This is the next bubble. It won't take much to crash it: we've already hit the point beyond which improvements in GPT models requires unfeasibly huge amounts of GPU horsepower and stolen data, destroying the entire intellectual property and media markets and warping the semiconductor industry roadmap.

It's all going to end in tears or mushroom clouds. Personally I'm hoping for tears, but I'm open to a sweet dinosaur-killer comet instead.

13:

it steals from everyone and everything, probably even from other AI.

You know how there's a lucrative market in lead recovered from the batteries of U-boats that were sunk prior to July 16th, 1945? Because quite a lot of sensors require lead shielding that is not contaminated with radioisotopes released from A-bomb fallout ...

We're already beginning to see a problem with LLMs being trained on data sucked in from websites contaminated with output of earlier generation LLMs. Which causes a marked deterioration in the quality of output the newer LLMs emit.

14:

What's being touted here as "AI" is not AI.
I tend to refer to it as "Artificial Stupidity".

15:

For some reason, people struggle with the idea that what may seem to be linear/logarithmic/etc. growth trends are actually just an S-curve. Thermodynamics do not allow for infinite growth in anything (I'm just hoping that collective foolishness/stupidity will start levelling off soon).

16:

working title of the movie version...

"A Poverty Of Imagination"

or

"Warehouse Emptied of Dreams"

{ oh golly me I've invented a new meme game }

17:

The „wedding“ thing in the apology is easily explained if you assume that the apology was written by ChatGPT…

18:

If you haven't already seen this, an article titled "Cellular functions of spermatogonial stem cells in relation to JAK/STAT signaling pathway" has been somehow accepted for review, peer-reviewed by two different people and recently published online in a Frontiers journal, despite being obviously fabricated by a computer program, including the figures. (The poor rat in Figure 1. Ouch.) It took a lot of bad publicity for someone to finally "notice" the fabrication and retract the paper.

19:

I strongly suspect but don't know that the movie name change stemmed from the source of funding. The candy is branded "Wonka" and since the candy company was stumping up the cash they probably made sure they got that name right up front.

20:

"What's being touted here as "AI" is not AI. It's a marketing label that's been slapped on top of large-scale statistical models trained on gigantic gobbets of input data (of dubious quality because it's hoovered up off the internet without adequate vetting)."

Reverend Stross, you're preaching to the choir!

21:

Looks & sounds like a tory Conference brainstorming, whilst on acid!

22:

There was a cryptoexchange that went bust, and it turned out the CEO was a completely made-up person. Had no existence in reality, stock photos, completely fabricated LinkedIn profile, etc. I had assumed that the people behind this particular scam would be a similar fabrication, it's interesting that they've been identified.

The wedding mention at the end of the second apology is quite interesting, though.

23:

Part of the problem in this case, I suspect, is that Cartchy tuns, exarserdray lollipops, a pasadise of sweet teats sounds almost like something Roald Dahl might have written.

But this seems to be a regular kind of scam. There have been a number of "winter wonderlands" that turned out to be muddy fields with a Santa in a tent and a couple of reindeer in a pen. And of course there was the Fyre Festival which did the whole thing on a much bigger scale.

The law generally says that if you take money with no intention of providing the promised service, that's fraud. If, however, you do your best but fail, that's merely a civil matter: you owe refunds, but that's all.

Add in the Limited Company. A company has a separate legal identity and creditors can't generally claim money back from employees and shareholders. There are exceptions to that, and wrongful trading might reasonably be alleged in a case like this. But its up to the courts and likely to take some time.

So the scam goes like this. Create a limited company. Use it to set up some tissue-thin excuse for an event at minimum cost. Pay advance deposits where unavoidable, but put as much as possible off until after the event. Sell lots of tickets. Pay yourself a huge wodge of the money as "wages", possibly via other cut-out companies. Then when it all collapses promise refunds and disappear into the mist. When the inevitable court actions roll around, claim that you did your best but due to inexperience and misfortune things went wrong. Hopefully the court never gets around to "lifting the veil". If they do, well, the money is long gone anyway.

24:

"...Youtube video, I haven't had a chance to watch it all yet..."

Wikipedia has it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willy's_Chocolate_Experience

25:

I would like to note again at this point, as I observed on social media nearly a week ago, that:

The Willy Wonka event in Glasgow feels like a potent metaphor for Brexit, to be honest: how it was sold versus the actual experience.
26:

The caption to the image isn't even written. It's generated to "look right" in a purely visual sense, imitating the appearance of a thing written under a picture but not actually realising it's supposed to be English text it's generating. I think it's actually done remarkably well to produce something that does look like text with no more than spelling errors, but there is a vestigial "r" budding from the first "t" in "teats" which gives it away.

27:

I wonder if they were trying to imitate (in a marketing way) this:

https://vangoghexpo.com/?cp_landing_term=cta_hero&cp_landing=cta_hero

Lots of people who visited it have liked it.

A lot of the descriptions on the marketing material seems similar.

28:

The poor rat in Figure 1. Ouch.

My wife told me that when she was a kid, she had a pet rat not unlike that one. His name was Scrot.

29:

please stop blaming the tool for the fool (and/or grifter) who uses it

ain't ChatGPT's fault an evil man (and/or stupid man) utilized it

This is implicit in what Charlie said above, but I am going to repeat it:

Behind ChatGPT is a marketing department. Behind the marketing department is thirteen billion US dollars (at last count). Behind the US$13B is a bunch of Microsoft execs who have decided that the survival of their company over the next decade depends on this product. And the sales pitch for the product, all the way down, is "You can skip doing the hard part. AI will do it for you."

I can absolutely blame the tool; it's inextricably tied to a system.

30:

...and pay inflated prices to 'vendors'

USD$17.99 per roll of toilet paper

and it turns out, too late to track down, there was a truckload of foodstuffs sent to another location but billed to the 'event'

foodstuffs which in turn are loaded onto another truck, delivered to a legit restaurant, sold off at 90% of list prices

31:

This little scam is a good example of the problems Science Fiction writers have when trying to write about the future.

To riff on J.B.S. Haldane: The future turns out to be not only weirder than we imagine; it's weirder than we can imagine.

32:

You reckon? Surely "promise the moon on a stick, deliver a dog turd with luminous paint on" is one of the standard ancient scams. I'm not sure there aren't even instances of wild animals doing it to each other. The details of this instance are new, but so were all the other variations once.

33:

I could see that maybe he thought it really would work, but he had to start selling tickets to fund the hiring of those expensive projectors. By the time it became abundantly clear that the AI-generated code was no where near capable of driving the fancy light show, it was too late.

34:

I both agree and disagree.

If you look at early generations of any new tech, it gets silly. Repeating guns. Typewriters. Airships. Bicycles. Automobiles. Airplanes. Computers. Personal computers. Social media. Electric cars.

The thing is that’s the adaptive radiation. Then selection kicks in and the silliness mostly fades. Then the fuckers are ubiquitous. Then people start rebuilding civilization around them and they become necessary. Then investors start sucking them dry and they become enshittified.

If more SF writers simply followed this pattern, their writing would be weirder and more realistic.

The thing I’m unhappy about with disembodied AI is that it seems to be really good at BS. I’m not looking forward to civilization rebuilding itself to lionize transhuman purveyors of ubiquitous bullshit. That would seem to take enshittification entirely too far.

35:

"please stop blaming the tool for the fool (and/or grifter) who uses it... ain't ChatGPT's fault... guns don't kill people"

Actually, guns do kill people. And generative AI fools people. That's what they're built and designed to do. Pretending otherwise doesn't help.

If modern guns had just been invented and murders using guns were suddenly becoming common, saying "it's not the guns fault, it's just a tool" would not be a helpful response: prevalent guns make murders much easier and more common, people would need to learn about that and decide whether to change their behaviours or laws to handle that.

Generative AI is an ideal tool for fooling people. It is explicitly designed, tuned, and built to produce that look good, that appear accurate, that are persuasive. A truly vast amount of money and work has gone into training it to be that.

So I expect the killer apps for generative AI will be individualized spam, targetted advertising, and fraud. It might - might! - also have other uses. But mostly that is what you get from a tool that can produce convincing-looking results tuned to its audience.

So cheaply-produced grifts will look more like the real thing, and people will need to learn about that and decide whether to change their behaviours or laws to handle that.

36:

whomever @ 2:

Sorry to be that guy, but as a fan as a kid I have to do this: The book is "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory" NOT Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory, which is the name of the 1971 film with Gene Wilder, no idea why they changed it except Hollywood logic is sometimes weird.

IIRC Willy Wonka was the secretive, eccentric owner of the chocolate factory & Charlie was one of the five kids who "found" a golden ticket & got a tour of the "factory" ... and Charlie turned out to be the only one who wasn't a complete asshat.

Trouble is I haven't really READ the ORIGINAL book, only flipped through a copy after the 1971 movie came out, so the copy I looked at may have already had names changed to protect the innocent ...

OTOH, I haven't really watched either of the films either.

37:

Princejvstin @ 1:

Dear lord, its amazing. The mind does boggle.

I see Generative AI as a hot thing in photography, with replacement skies and other such tools. While I accept removing things from an image (heck, Ansel Adams did it!) , adding things to an image that were never there has always made me uneasy. Generative AI is an evolution of that concept, gone wild and mad.

I've had a long standing beef with a nature photography group I belong to over "What is a NATURE photograph?. They have what I feel are unrealistic expectations about "Hand of Man" in the images, e.g. an excellent photo of a couple of bear cubs playing near a tree stump disqualified because there was an OLD fence post with the remnants of the strands of barb wire where a fence once was in the image.

Yet obviously manipulated images (deer floating above grass in somebody's back lawn) are perfectly acceptable and recently there has been much discussion of (and praise for) PhotoShop's new GenerativeAI tools.

PS: What the hell is a grassy lawn if not the "Hand of Man".

38:

That Fyre Festival was the first thing I thought of when the story showed up in my news last week.

39:

Kevin Marks @ 10:

I wonder if it could be reenacted for Glasgow WorldCon. Karen Gillan has said she wants to be in any film version.

I wouldn't be interested in seeing it unless they can somehow include Rory.

40:

aitap @ 18:

If you haven't already seen this, an article titled "Cellular functions of spermatogonial stem cells in relation to JAK/STAT signaling pathway" has been somehow accepted for review, peer-reviewed by two different people and recently published online in a Frontiers journal, despite being obviously fabricated by a computer program, including the figures. (The poor rat in Figure 1. Ouch.) It took a lot of bad publicity for someone to finally "notice" the fabrication and retract the paper.

I'll see your "Cellular functions ..." and raise you Transgressing the Boundaries: Towards a Transformative Hermeneutics of Quantum Gravity

🤣🙃😟😕😂

At least Sokal did all the work himself.

41:

icehawk @ 35:

So I expect the killer apps for generative AI will be individualized spam, targetted advertising, and fraud. It might - might! - also have other uses. But mostly that is what you get from a tool that can produce convincing-looking results tuned to its audience.

So cheaply-produced grifts will look more like the real thing, and people will need to learn about that and decide whether to change their behaviours or laws to handle that.

I'm afraid it's already here - DEEP FAKE robocalls.

42:

Early 19th century had it bad with steam power

Don't forget atmospherics, an offshoot of steam engines. Feorag probably has some knowledge of them.

Obituary: The Atmospheric Railway (from Punch, 1848, on the financial collapse of attempts to power a train with pneumatic pipes and pistons by the South Devon railway)

Died last week, the Atmospheric Railway. Its death is supposed to have been hastened by the want of breath. When the tube was opened, it was found quite gone. Its loss is deeply regretted by a large circle of India-rubber buffers. A stone will be erected to mark the melancholy fact, with the following epitaph : – “The earth hath bubbles, and this is one of them.”

43:

Bad news Mr jvstin & Mr S: AI-like substitution is already infecting photos taken by the handy communication device in your pocket. It HAS to, to compensate for the tiny lens (lenses) and when users want "great" photos automatically. Your "photo" was put together out of multiple pieces & substitutions both before & after you pushed the button.

The article below on Computational Photography is coming up on 5 years old, and we've about reached the prediction all the way on the bottom where "your phone says: you know, your selfie is shit. I'll put a nice sharp picture of the tower in the background, fix your hair, and remove a pimple above your lip."

https://vas3k.com/blog/computational_photography/

44:

Yup: here's a particularly infamous example taken by a recent iphone camera in a bridal photograph (look at her hand positions in the changing room mirrors).

(Although that's not AI hallucination. Rather, the photographer's phone was in panorama mode, in which it stitches together a bunch of separate frames captured in very rapid succession: she moved her arms while they were shooting, and instead of a blur the result is a model whose reflections in two angled mirrors show her in different positions.)

45:

There was also the infamous Samsung moon inserting camera, which looked for blurry moon pictures and swapped in a previously taken crisp one. https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2023/03/samsung-says-it-adds-fake-detail-to-moon-photos-via-reference-photos/

46:

Hypothesis: the people who use "AI" generated text because they don't know how to write also don't know how to proofread, which is why so many embarrassing examples get published.

47:

That's a pretty easy hypothesis to come up with, but a lot harder to prove! (More likely they don't even recognize that proofreading is necessary, as they've swallowed the line that AI will make writing and editing obsolete.)

48:

You can use it to knock out your new LP, if you don't fancy all that business about bothering to learn how to play anything properly - https://www.currentaffairs.org/2024/02/will-ai-enable-new-musical-creativity-or-undermine-musicians. (Can't speak to the quality because my galloping adult onset hearing loss means all music now sounds ghastly and wrong for me.)

49:

Add to that a couple other things, like the way language is constantly changing and is thus a moving target, or that the particular subset of the English vocabulary used to address science fiction fans is different than the subset used to address fans of romances or mysteries, or even ordinary people who start their day with a bit of news, and that humans frequently accomplish this through 'feel' rather than an algorithm, and that keeping up with language in the fashion of a real reporter/editor is a full-time job by itself... I'd expect even a 'perfected' AI editor/proofreader to be both behind the times and also trained on lots of substandard language via the Book of Face or whatever, such that it's decisions would be marginal, at best.

50:

I believe they're scraping pirate ebook sites and pretty much anything ever uploaded to kindle unlimited, the global public amateur slushpile. So good luck with that!

51:

That's exactly my point, and why I put quotes around 'perfected' in my previous post, plus using the word 'marginal.'

The very best AI editor you'd ever get wouldn't be as good an editor as I am right now (it might be a better proofreader, at least where spelling is concerned.)

53:

JD @ 43:

Bad news Mr jvstin & Mr S: AI-like substitution is already infecting photos taken by the handy communication device in your pocket. It HAS to, to compensate for the tiny lens (lenses) and when users want "great" photos automatically. Your "photo" was put together out of multiple pieces & substitutions both before & after you pushed the button.

Nah! I don't care.

I rarely use the iPhone camera and when I do it doesn't require any of that stuff (in the waiting room at the doctor's office, hold the page flat & make sure the text is in focus so you can capture the recipe well enough to cook it at home and you don't have to tear any pages out of the magazine, leaving it intact for the next patient to read).

When I do photography I use my "real cameras".

The article below on Computational Photography is coming up on 5 years old, and we've about reached the prediction all the way on the bottom where "your phone says: you know, your selfie is shit. I'll put a nice sharp picture of the tower in the background, fix your hair, and remove a pimple above your lip."

https://vas3k.com/blog/computational_photography/

I've been doing some of that stuff for 20 years now (it was, in fact, 20 years ago this February just past that I got my first DSLR).

Before that, I was already using PhotoShop5 because before I got the DSLR, I was using a Nikon Coolscan IV ED for 35mm film. Non-destructive editing (adjustment layers) came with PhotoShop7

[HINT: If your software doesn't do non-destructive editing, make all your edits on a COPY. Save your "original" image to go back to later if you want to make changes.]

I don't use the current PhotoShop ransomware, because I paid significant money for my perpetual licenses that Adobe no longer honors. My argument with Adobe is over their business practices, not the software.

I have no problem with image manipulation. I've done it myself. I've done it with film in the darkroom.

I DO have a problem with misrepresentation in images ... if it's manipulated, say so, don't try to pass it off as UN-manipulated.

PS: I have an older iPhoneSE & I don't think it can even do the photo manipulation newer phones can do & IF I AM going to do photo manipulation, I've got a whole computer built just for that purpose.

PPS: IIRC PhotoShop7 was also the first version that could work with Camera Raw files via a RAW Processor addon (named appropriately enough "Adobe Camera RAW".

54:

Charlie Stross @ 44:

Yup: here's a particularly infamous example taken by a recent iphone camera in a bridal photograph (look at her hand positions in the changing room mirrors).

(Although that's not AI hallucination. Rather, the photographer's phone was in panorama mode, in which it stitches together a bunch of separate frames captured in very rapid succession: she moved her arms while they were shooting, and instead of a blur the result is a model whose reflections in two angled mirrors show her in different positions.)

I don't know why that image would be "infamous".

I think it's cool the photographer managed to capture it "in camera", but I wonder how many times he/she had to repeat the process to capture the arms in position, not moving ...

I think it would be a lot easier (and quicker) to take three images & merge them in PhotoShop.

YMMV.

55:

Troutwaxer @ 51:

That's exactly my point, and why I put quotes around 'perfected' in my previous post, plus using the word 'marginal.'

The very best AI editor you'd ever get wouldn't be as good an editor as I am right now (it might be a better proofreader, at least where spelling is concerned.)

I turn spell-check ON and leave auto-correct (auto-DEFECT?) turned OFF.

Spell-check should just highlight the words it "thinks" are wrong and offer suggested corrections ... you can accept the correction, ignore the the suggestions or add the word to the dictionary (I frequently add words).

USE the tools that work & skip the ones that don't.

56:

I think it's cool the photographer managed to capture it "in camera", but I wonder how many times he/she had to repeat the process to capture the arms in position, not moving ...

They didn't repeat it, that's the whole point: this just happened because they photographed a subject who was moving.

57:

Re: '... maybe he thought it really would work, but he had to start selling tickets to fund the hiring of those expensive projectors'

Based on the Wikipedia article - nope! The guy's a repeat scam artist.

My understanding is that corporations (Ltd's/Inc's) must name their CEO/Pres/chief exec/owner as part of getting their corporate seal/papers OK'd. This usually means that the gov't OKing that corporate seal/papers does some form of background check on the principals.

Did the UK pols (i.e., Rishi and/or last 15 years of Tory PMs) fire the civil servants doing these types of checks ... checks that were put in place to help protect UK citizens/consumers?

Hmmm... just did a search on this. Looks super easy to register a corp online in the UK. However ... anything as simple as this form should also be simple/easy to cross-check against records like whether the people exist, have a prison record, unpaid taxes, etc. Maybe some journalist will look into this because this could be the tip of the iceberg re: UK-based scams. (I'll let someone else check how the EU OKs corporations. My guess is that the EU's plugged such obvious holes. Could be another reason some UK pols/ultra-rich pushed for BrExit?)

https://www.gov.uk/set-up-limited-company

58:

Moving slit cameras have an inherent and essentially unpatchable vulnerability... I think that's what they call them, for taking very long and wide panoramic photos: instead of a normal shutter arrangement, they pull a strip of film past a narrow vertical slit in the focal plane while the camera rotates around a vertical axis. The projected image inside the camera is thus stationary relative to the film, so the width of the slit and the speed of rotation determine the exposure; the exposure time for any infinitesimal vertical strip of the film is the usual small fraction of a second, so moving foliage and the like still comes out sharp, even though it takes several seconds for the rotational movement as a whole to be completed.

A typical application for one of these is taking a school photo of everyone at the school at once, all lined up in a long row. And perhaps some of them twice, if they have managed to run round the back from one end of the row to the other faster than the sweep of the camera.

59:

I'm not saying it's not scammy. But the whole thing does have vague hints of someone being conned by MRAs and AI peddlers

60:

What is this "film" you speak of, Strange Person From The 19th Century?

61:

What's kind of interesting is the juxtaposition of machine-generated vs artisanal nonsense: Séamas O'Reilly* is a great writer and AFAIK what he puts out under his own name is true, but he has a history of entertaining pranks (e.g. Banjo the Riot Elephant, or his first published fiction - a series of slightly bizarre letters to Metro's "Rush Hour Crush" missed connections column).

*he's the "took ketamine and got called into work to serve the President of Ireland" guy.

62:
Moving slit cameras

I think the phrase you're looking for is rolling shutter?

63:

The final question that killed it off being the longitudinal flap valve falling to bits from the physical and chemical interaction between seawater, frost, iron, and the leather of the valve, so they needed to replace the entire length of the thing at some awful cost.

There were two entirely unrelated developments taking place over those same few years: the South Devon atmospheric railway experiment, and figuring out how to make vulcanisation of rubber into a consistent and reliable process. This ended up with the material the railway had needed all along to make a reliable flap valve finally becoming available at the same moment they finally decided they'd had enough. But they didn't change their minds.

I reckon it is probably a good thing it didn't come along any earlier. If they had started off with a reliable flap valve, then at least it would have been working properly most of the time, so the shiny aspects like speed and silence - which it did achieve - might have been impressive enough that they thought it worth putting up with all the less obvious aspects that were a bit shit.

It was only 10 or 15 years after they got rid of it that the trains they were hauling over Dainton with locomotives began to get heavy enough that the train weight times the cosine of the gradient would have exceeded the piston area times the maximum possible pressure differential. So if they had got the atmospheric system working, it would now be leaving them screwed, and with a worse task to sort it out, just at the point when their traffic was properly beginning to pick up, and they would regret it much more than they did.

Brunel built some groovy structures but he did seem to lose the plot a bit when it came to anything dynamic. His locomotives also sucked, hence bringing in Daniel Gooch to take over the locomotive engineering side.

Atmospherics of course did become useful when people were doing it on a more sensible scale. The pipe and piston of an atmospheric railway, suitably shrunk, becomes a pneumatic message tube system, which we still use, if less than we used to. Perhaps more relevantly to the idea of "atmopunk", little vacuum-operated bellows thingies made of wood and paper/fabric used to be used quite a lot as well-controllable analogue actuators, for things like piano-playing machines that could do loud and soft.

Of course an atmopunk control system for something more complicated than playing a recording would have to use fluidic computational elements, which also had their burst of hype a few decades ago, but electronics is nearly always better. They do still show up in peculiar things they are naturally good for, like "chemical laboratory on a chip" systems.

64:

What your school photos would have been taken on...

65:

It's much the same principle as the mechanism of distortion that article describes, but applied deliberately in a controlled manner (and much more slowly) so the "distortion" it produces is an undistorted mapping of the inside of a slice of a cylinder onto a flat strip.

66:

The concept of the Brunel/Gooch Broad Gauge (7' track gauge) makes perfect engineering sense and indeed can still be seen to some extent on parts of Western Region (the one I remember best being Bristol Temple Meads Station).
Where Brunel fell down more was in designs like his trans-Atlantic liners, where he was on, or possibly slightly beyond, the technology capabilities of the day.

67:

More likely they don't even recognize that proofreading is necessary

That's for people who have heard of this proofreading thing and not seen the point, as opposed to people who have never heard of it at all.

There is a concept analogous with not trusting trust, per Ken Thompson. Successive of generations of students do not learn the processes that were mainstays in their area of expertise until the previous generation, when they were superseded. That is a sort of analogy for iterations of clean room rebuilds, I guess, while people actually learning "the old ways" do so through deeply hidden code. I may have the explanation a bit muddled, still have covid brain I think.

68:

We should get a re-enactment of this event done by "Craig, the Scottish Tour guide" (the lovely Eleanor Morton)

69:

paws
Not even wrong, I'm afraid ...
It's LOADING gauge that matters - look at Germany or the USA f'rinsatnce.
Alternatively, use two gauges, like India ( Actually 3 ) 5'6"" for main lines in non-mountainous areas & metre for almost all of the rest.

70:

... a consumer fraud perpetrated by a company ("House of Illuminati") based in London, doing everything by remote control over the internet to fleece those gullible provincials of their wallet contents.

"House of Illuminati" does seem to have a London address. However, it's pretty clear the guy behind it is a Glaswegian, with a history of running a dubious local charity. (This bit is particularly amusing: "Mr Coull lists himself as a doctor, but this qualification is attributed to the University of Sedona, which claims to provide 'Metaphysical Degrees'.") He also attempted to run for Glasgow city council in 2022, but never followed through, so maybe Glasgow dodged a bullet there,

71:

Ah, we did. Would have been too hard for her to resist, I am sure.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hb6T_iW97do

72:

I'm not sure that the use of LLMs is the real issue here. Somebody who screws up like this using an LLM will screw things up regardless. The root problem looks to be that either they don't know they're screwing up or they don't care.

Both mental states are horribly common in computer-oriented folk (I am one). Everything in software is a cheap, cardboard-cut-out copy of something in the physical world. It's too easy to see the simplified, rubbish version as the thing that matters (Platonic archetype?) and the rest as the annoying, messy, over-detailed copy. "Why isn't this good enough?" is a standard whine of developers. And off we go to reduce the physical world to our standards.

Interestingly, the LLM has the same problem of agency with no taste or judgement. It truly doesn't know shit from Shinola. And in that, it's a very good simulacrum of an ignorant, incompetent and very vocal kind of human; you know, the kind who increasingly rule our lives. Artificial Intelligence is not that bad a name for it. Artificial Stupidity is better.

73:

...ooooooh shit

takes me a while but eventually the rusty wheels doth turn...

that one photograph will be leveraged by defense attorneys of many nations as basis of court filings to have evidence withheld from the jury or outright redacted (lawyerverse jargon for "suppressed")...

photographs, videos, audio... maybe even text, e-mail...

not so much the unblinking eye of justice applied evenly as e might have been hoping for, when it would apply to the rich 'n amoral (0.1%) when they're hunting us (99.9%) for sport... you know, involuntary sex, contractual scams, misrepresentation, bait 'n switch...

74:

[L]arge-scale statistical models trained on gigantic gobbets of input data (of dubious quality because it's hoovered up off the internet without adequate vetting)

Which is a big reason why every 'it will get better in the future' feels a bit off to me. You scraped the internet already, are you going to go for a smaller dataset? How do you sell it? How do you even know which parts to scrape now? (How did you earlier? Wait, you didn't so you just scraped it all...)

The vetting problem becomes harder all the time because there just is more and more crap generated to be scraped.

I admit that for smaller datasets and limited applications LLMs can be somewhat useful. Like I've said elsewhere, in my software development job automatic code generation is nice but typing in code is only a very small part of the job. I haven't yet seen any systems which would be so good as predicting what I want to type that I'd consider the effort in building them to be worthwhile.

75:

Somebody who screws up like this using an LLM will screw things up regardless.

Still, there's a lot of stuff which the LLMs make easier to do. Generating posters, scripts and all that kind of stuff takes effort even if it is minimal effort. Even typing out something vaguely sensible-looking as a script is a time-consuming task, so using an LLM to vomit such things makes things easier. And making even bad posters takes some time and skill.

So this makes things easier and faster.

76:

well... well... once again the nerds ara step ahead of the media

Last Week Tonight With John Oliver shreds Boeing and the FAA and reveals what is obvious: no hostile audits, no reliable safety

4QBoeing 4QFAA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivLjlMBjQCU

77:

More likely they don't even recognize that proofreading is necessary, as they've swallowed the line that AI will make writing and editing obsolete.

Oh, that line was around back when AI was mostly talked about in reference to prize bulls (as opposed to prize bullshit)…

Back around the turn of the millennium I was told with a straight face that children don't need to waste time learning spelling and grammar because spellcheck and grammar-check are now built into word processors. (By a high school principal, no less, which makes it even more terrifying.)

And I'm certain that you have tales from the coalface of publishing about the outsourcing/dumbing-down of copyediting.

78:

I put this story in the same category as the recurring Rubbish Christmas Wonderland Experience was Rubbish - Children Disappointed event. Although to be fair, the 1995 Glasgow Worldcon on did draw an Outraged Mums Want Their Money Back local headline.

79:

So this makes things easier and faster.

Agreed. So perhaps it should be IA not AI: "Idiot Amplifier".

80:

The irony for something like this is that in the hands of people who have a clue, a show like this could actually be good and worth at least £35 a ticket - if it was done properly.

A few years ago, my ex-gf saw an ad for an immersive Alice in Wonderland experience/show in London. Tickets were pretty pricey, but not unreasonable by comparison with West End shows. Against my natural northern reluctance to put my hand in my pocket, I signed us up for it.

And it was, genuinely, amazing. In a warehouse space under railway arches, they'd constructed a small wooden labyrinth, where actors led small groups of people through it. All the walls were decorated with scraps of book pages and cards. Some parts were animatronic (the Mock Turtle), some parts were done by actors (a fantastic Tea Party scene with a mesmerisingly mad female Hatter), some parts were simply experiences (a shrinking process through an Ames room), some parts were projections or sound recordings, and so on. And the ticket price was supplemented by the final destination being a beautifully creepy flowerbed-themed bar serving rather nice (but expensive!) themed cocktails.

In the same kind of vein, I took my son to "The World of Beatrix Potter" in Windermere. It's simply beautiful - it's exactly like stepping into the illustrations from the books. They had a little show for the kids as well, and they'd taken the Disney tip of doing meet-and-greets with the characters too, but the real prize was the detail in the artwork covering every inch of the place. Well worth it.

The really depressing part of this story isn't just that people were being ripped off - it's that it could have been that good if it wasn't just being run as a grift.

81:

Back around the turn of the millennium I was told with a straight face that children don't need to waste time learning spelling and grammar because spellcheck and grammar-check are now built into word processors.

As an error prone typist I leave grammar and spell checking on. Then after done typing read back over what I have typed looking at all the "errors". I make a lot. But at least 1 in 10 of what is flagged is not wrong. Just not something the Microsoft checker cannot comprehend.

I usually make 2 or more passes over what I have typed (not as much here as I should) and try and fix those 200 word sentences and such that the checkers don't catch.

82:

"Idiot Amplifier" ==> "Idiocy Amplifier"

the problem is less the user-as-person as how it is being used as a service

perhaps the product category ought be re-labeled:

"Idiocy as a Software Based Service" (IaaSBS)

83:

Re: '... well... well... once again the nerds ara step ahead of the media'

Hopefully Boeing's corporate policy insists that their senior management and major shareholders must fly the MAX. Apart from good PR. it's probably the quickest way to bring in safer planes or - failing safer planes - new management.

Oliver was on Jimmy Kimmel's late night show [see below] a few days after picking up his latest Emmy and mentioned that the show's production team tells the legal team about the main segment a week ahead of the on-air date. (Sort of a heads-up on what research they'll probably have to do.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBE4cCTj1qE

Below is a Harvard student mag article about one of LWT's episodes: SLAPP suits. Good to know about esp. since there's at least one in-the-news pol noted for using them.

https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2019/12/8/wthh-john-oliver-bob-murray-lawsuit/

84:

Charlie Stross @ 60:

What is this "film" you speak of, Strange Person From The 19th Century?

Film? That's the stuff cluttering up half my refrigerator.** 😏

According to what I've read, very popular with young people today.

See also: Rolling shutter

... why I think they had to do it more than once to get it right in camera.

** Film is easy to find, it's reliable film processing that's gotten' scarce.

85:

anonemouse @ 62:

"Moving slit cameras"

I think the phrase you're looking for is rolling shutter?

Nope. Rolling shutter is an effect from focal plane shutters. It's why SLR & DSLR cameras have a "sync speed", the highest shutter speed** at which the leading curtain is fully open before the trailing curtain starts to close. At higher shutter speeds the shutter creates a slit that moves across the film or image sensor.

The slit camera is a different thing. The slit is fixed; during exposure the camera moves in one direction while the film is pulled past the slit in the other direction.

Panoramic, Slit Scan and Strip photographs of various subjects

** When using "flash" you want the shutter full open when the flash fires or else only part of the image is illuminated by the flash.

Flash Sync Speed

86:

Damian @ 67:

"More likely they don't even recognize that proofreading is necessary"

That's for people who have heard of this proofreading thing and not seen the point, as opposed to people who have never heard of it at all.

There is a concept analogous with not trusting trust, per Ken Thompson. Successive of generations of students do not learn the processes that were mainstays in their area of expertise until the previous generation, when they were superseded. That is a sort of analogy for iterations of clean room rebuilds, I guess, while people actually learning "the old ways" do so through deeply hidden code. I may have the explanation a bit muddled, still have covid brain I think.

That raises a question in my mind ...

Why do schools no longer teach kids to proof-read their work?

87:

Guy Rixon @ 72:

I'm not sure that the use of LLMs is the real issue here. Somebody who screws up like this using an LLM will screw things up regardless. The root problem looks to be that either they don't know they're screwing up or they don't care.

Too often I think it's BOTH at the same time.

Both mental states are horribly common in computer-oriented folk (I am one). Everything in software is a cheap, cardboard-cut-out copy of something in the physical world. It's too easy to see the simplified, rubbish version as the thing that matters (Platonic archetype?) and the rest as the annoying, messy, over-detailed copy. "Why isn't this good enough?" is a standard whine of developers. And off we go to reduce the physical world to our standards.

Interestingly, the LLM has the same problem of agency with no taste or judgement. It truly doesn't know shit from Shinola. And in that, it's a very good simulacrum of an ignorant, incompetent and very vocal kind of human; you know, the kind who increasingly rule our lives. Artificial Intelligence is not that bad a name for it. Artificial Stupidity is better.

Real life(TM) does not allow you to load a saved game or re-spawn if you get killed. I think too many people today have forgotten this ... or never learned.

88:

Back around the turn of the millennium I was told with a straight face that children don't need to waste time learning spelling and grammar because spellcheck and grammar-check are now built into word processors.

On that subject, did you know that modern spellcheckers watch their humans type and learn from that? If someone repeatedly types a word the spellchecker doesn't know, and doesn't fix it to match the spellchecker's suggestions, the software will eventually figure that this is some new word it wasn't told about and add it to the dictionary of acceptable words. (Good if you typed "Feorag," not so good if you typed "beleif.") So over time careless humans will actually weaken the robots trying to care for them.

I think every writer has tales of embarrassing clunkers that got through editing, and they're the professionals.

89:

Actually, as I read your post, I realized the perfect correction: Artificial Idiocy.

90:

"Film? That's the stuff cluttering up half my refrigerator."

Ah, yours too? :)

Though in my case the reason is that what I want is not easy to find. There seems to be plenty of black and white, and various colour films whose colour rendering and permanence is either unknown or is known to be unsatisfactory. I want Fuji colour film - Velvia and relations - and not only has there been a lot of uncertainty in recent years over what they are and aren't still making or planning to, there's even been a scandal over Fuji putting their name and label on Kodak-based film, which is something I'm particularly keen to avoid.

Processing, agreed, that's been a problem for a lot longer. Everyone uses the all-in-one machines that look like a giant photocopier; it was a long time before they worked properly, and then they started cutting corners in other respects, so you got prints with visible raster lines on. Slide films have fewer steps to get wrong, but still aren't "guaranteed" in the way they were when processing by the manufacturer was included in the price.

"According to what I've read, very popular with young people today."

I have read similar things, but they have also gone on to say that what it's mostly popular for is some utterly bizarre fashion for taking photos that are deliberately shit, using cameras of Christmas cracker quality and rejoicing in their crappiness. I was given a creaky plastic camera when I was a kid, which I abandoned as unusable after one roll of film because it had light leaks up the wazoo; I've seen the very same model praised as something to look out for in junk sales for the exact same seitilauq.

This disturbs me, because if film becomes thought of as something people are wanting so they can produce photographic annals of Volusius, its manufacture and processing are also likely to adopt the Volusian method.

However, all that aside, what I was originally on about was that not only is the example posted not an example of an artificially stupid computer getting its knickers in a twist, it's not even an example for which computers are a necessary condition; it's an example of an unintended consequence of using that algorithm, which people were already exploiting as a prank when the algorithm was being implemented on purely analogue systems.

91:

And disastrous. Someone posted to a faceplant group I'm in that's for advertising open calls for fiction. The theme of their anthology was songs by Jethro Tull.

Number 1: a medieval-style inn. With a campfire IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WOODEN FLOOR.
Number 2, my partner noted that he's holding the flute wrong (and issues with number of fingers).

No, it's I want to wave a wand, and it'll do everything, and I don't have to check.

92:

And two, more general things: for one, all of that... why, exactly, isn't chocolate the entire theme? It barely mentions chocolate.

And ..."threadreader". So, can someone explain to me why anyone who could step away from it for a minute would consider a website that you can only post 128 chars (sorry, now 240 or is it 256?) chars at a time a serious site for conversation, or notices, or ANY bloody thing at all?

Other than, say, the media, who in the sixties had sound bites of 42 sec, and now are down to 9 sec?

93:

Twitter was originally designed to operate over SMS (text messaging) hence the short length. Then the service mushroomed and got repurposed for unintended uses -- almost nobody uses the SMS features any more, message threading/conversation was added later because users were trying to do that anyway, and so on.

Then Dilbert Stark got high, made a ridiculous offer to buy it, the lawyers held his feet to the fire, forcing him to pay up, the owners had a fiduciary duty to take the roughly $20Bn over market price he'd offered, and he's riding it into the ground.

94:

It would have been a godsend, and a guaranteed pass, for English Literature O-level. Write some deep sounding bullshit about this passage in the style of the teacher's blethering about other things by the same author. Doesn't have to make sense, doesn't have to understand the passage or appear logically connected to any actually discernible aspect of it, just has to include the required buzzwords and an appropriate number of quotes. It's hard to see how the machine could go wrong.

95:

86 - Well, schools (at least in Scotland) pretty much never taught proff-reiding, at least not going back to 1940s primary schools.

89 - That never actually occurred to me until now. :-D

90 - I'll agree that Kodak is no substitute for Fuji (reasons of colour balance for one thing). Have you tried Konika (formerly Sakura) stock?

96:

"my partner noted that he's holding the flute wrong"

He taught himself to play it without reference to any form of official guidance, so he just did what was most natural to produce the sounds he wanted. He held it "wrong" for years and years and played most of their music like that before anyone told him about it.

97:

Oh, I know exactly what it was all about (ask me how many messages I got on my pager (or, for two months, two pagers) when I worked at Ameritech in the mid-nineties.

But the entire idea of a website based on SMS messages was mind-bogglingly dumb in the first place. All I can see such a use for is snarky one-liners.

98:

Never even seen it on sale, but will remember to look out for it; thanks for the hint.

99:

I stepped away, to get a shower and lunch, and a thought struck me: the chatbots do not have spellcheck or grammar check enabled. From the ad, alone, it's obvious.

100:

All I can see such a use for is snarky one-liners.

You are missing stuff like:

Emergency broadcast notifications (eg. tsunami alerts)

Status reports from software (eg. "mail queue has stalled") to a support team

News headlines with a link to the news agency headline

"I'm going to be in the local Nando's at 8pm; anyone joining me for a pint in $PUB afterwards?"

... And a bunch more.

In other words, your lack of imagination is not a limitation on the medium.

101:

you mean...

he's unscrewing bolts from the wings to reduce drag weight?

uhm... where have I heard of such things happening elsewhere?

too bad the death of TW will remove what was a semi-usable "media for media wonks"

102:

pistols at dawn, dude

I live for snark these days and the sharper the jab of any one-liner the (momentary) higher spike of laughter induced endorphins as easement of my bones

103:

The Stable Diffusion artwork does not "understand" that the text atop the promotional images is text; it's just creating the sort of text like blobs that are normally found in such digital patterns.

104:

Sorry, but I can do that with emails, or links to the news sites. "Meet me at" fits my description, but then, emails would do as well.

105:

We still use them for system alerts today. We even let paying customer subscribe to those alerts via the website!

But we have alerts that either "go to all" or failover down the chain until eventually the system is sending SMS's via an android phone hanging off a USB socket. Or more likely, sadly beeping away in a deserted server room as it ponders the life of the last surviving human being in a world now populated entirely by machines...

And speaking of crssing the streams, an Australian economist has opinions about one of our stable atrractors and also one of our other stable attractors... Laundry Files and nuclear power :)

https://aus.social/@johnquiggin/112035934670247450

106:

Missing information ...

When I mentioned lost online info, I hadn't read this article yet. I'm a non-techie and thought I'd screwed up when I lost some online info, but nope - losing online info appears to be pretty widespread.

'More than 2 million research papers have disappeared from the Internet'

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00616-5

How this applies to this blog's topic [AI vomit] ...

So not only do we have to deal with possible AI hallucinations, we also have to be alert for random holes in memory (senescence?) because documents that we assumed to be available for the AI to read no longer exist in the online universe.

Anyone here have any idea how/why these research papers might have been erased from the Internet?

108:

Sorry, but I can do that with emails, or links to the news sites. "Meet me at" fits my description, but then, emails would do as well.

I don't see anyone telling you to not do what works for you. But you seem to be yelling at us for using tech that, to be honest, you don't seem to understand.

109:

It is very cool when I can link up two people I respect. I'm probably unreasonably happy about seeing Charlie tell someone "well actually I do have a new Laundry Files book out" :)

110:

lost pointers

especially embarrassing is expired host contract or URL domain ownership

fractured URL

cross linked URLs

folder renaming

sever renaming

router renaming

hardcoded IP addresses of devices which at some point decide to assign themselves dynamically generated IP addresses

someone kick out the plug (data or electric) of a device

Mercury went into retrograde

111:

"How this applies to this blog's topic [AI vomit] ... Anyone here have any idea how/why these research papers might have been erased from the Internet?"

"Bgzs FOS, write me a paper about genetic signalling in the abnormal genital development of rats, which is so inhumanly difficult and tedious to read that anyone trying to review it will be too zonked on headache pills to notice the errors."

Then smaller archives find they can't muster the resources to keep up with checking for these, especially since those who produce them know this and so prefer to distribute the stuff using the smaller outfits. It's even harder to check when their own data has been scraped and found its way into the guff. So they go off-line in self-protection.

Perhaps, anyway.

112:

I can't speak for Whitroth, but, if I were to yell at you for using Twatter it would be for "assuming I use tech I have never taken any interest in or had an account on/with" rather than "using tech I don't understand for want of ability to understand".

113:

Pigeon @ 90:

"Film? That's the stuff cluttering up half my refrigerator."

Ah, yours too? :)

Though in my case the reason is that what I want is not easy to find. There seems to be plenty of black and white, and various colour films whose colour rendering and permanence is either unknown or is known to be unsatisfactory. I want Fuji colour film - Velvia and relations - and not only has there been a lot of uncertainty in recent years over what they are and aren't still making or planning to, there's even been a scandal over Fuji putting their name and label on Kodak-based film, which is something I'm particularly keen to avoid.

In my case it's a combination of things ... several photographer aquaintences decided to get rid of all their film & film equipment and the film ended up in my refrigerator because it was otherwise destined for the landfill & I just couldn't ...

The other part is Large Format ... I still have my 4x5 cameras & film holders and film to go IN the film holders including a box & a half of Polaroid Type 55 (which has probably suffered the film equivalent of bit rot since I stored it).

... and some stuff I have NO IDEA why I'm still hanging on to it, including 110 film cartridges (3 of them Kodachrome64 which is NEVER coming back).

Processing, agreed, that's been a problem for a lot longer. Everyone uses the all-in-one machines that look like a giant photocopier; it was a long time before they worked properly, and then they started cutting corners in other respects, so you got prints with visible raster lines on. Slide films have fewer steps to get wrong, but still aren't "guaranteed" in the way they were when processing by the manufacturer was included in the price.

For several years I had access to a REAL darkroom (B&W and Color) AND I was running one of those mini-labs (Noritsu QSS-3301 with Kodak chemistry).

The largest prints I could do with the mini-lab was an 8x10 (although if I had wanted to hack the system, I could have probably produced 8x12 and 8x24 panaramic prints on it) ... but I kept it running in tip-top condition, with the best up-time in my district.

Good enough that the local professional sports team regularly used my lab for printing publicity 8x10s for players to sign & give to fans (about once a month during the season I'd get an order for 100+ 8x10 prints). I also did printing for one of the "Miss North Carolinas" (again 100+ 8x10s at a time) ...

"According to what I've read, very popular with young people today."

I have read similar things, but they have also gone on to say that what it's mostly popular for is some utterly bizarre fashion for taking photos that are deliberately shit, using cameras of Christmas cracker quality and rejoicing in their crappiness. I was given a creaky plastic camera when I was a kid, which I abandoned as unusable after one roll of film because it had light leaks up the wazoo; I've seen the very same model praised as something to look out for in junk sales for the exact same seitilauq.

This disturbs me, because if film becomes thought of as something people are wanting so they can produce photographic annals of Volusius, its manufacture and processing are also likely to adopt the Volusian method.

RICOH Pentax is bringing out a NEW film camera for the market. It will be a 35mm half-frame (with an image format similar to smart phones)

PENTAX Film Project Story #03

114:

paws4thot @ 95:

90 - I'll agree that Kodak is no substitute for Fuji (reasons of colour balance for one thing). Have you tried Konika (formerly Sakura) stock?

That's at least as valid a comparison as the IBM PC vs Apple arguments we all know & love so well.

115:

A lot of academic research is about as well-funded and institutionalized as a sci-fi convention committee or a free and open source software package. The personalities are just as eccentric too.

So what very often happens is that four young academics create the journal of so-and-so, get issued DOIs, then one changes institutions, another gets a teaching job with no paid time for research, a third becomes a data scientist and a fourth becomes a train conductor. A few years later the original institution is updating its content management system and erases the page for the journal ("hey, we emailed the contact email on file warning that the page would be deleted unless they stepped in to fix it, and nobody told us not to do it - we got some 'this address is no longer in service' messages but that just proves that the website was not important"). Maybe the train conductor and the researcher are vaguely sorry that the website went down but nobody will pay them to create a new one and they have new interests now. That is how a certain percentage of online-only academic publications are lost every year.

Some of the simplest things in website maintenance, like making sure that Cool URIs Don't Change, are the hardest to actually do.

116:

assuming I use tech I have never taken any interest in or had an account on/with

I've never assumed such with him. And he makes it clear he doesn't or has never used it.

117:

Did you actually just imply that brand1 film isn't better balanced than brand2 for specific fields of photography!?

118:

UPDATE: A villain devised for the catastrophic Willy’s Chocolate Experience, who makes sweets and lives in walls, is to become the subject of a new horror movie.

119:

paws4thot @ 117:

Did you actually just imply that brand1 film isn't better balanced than brand2 for specific fields of photography!?

Which is better - a wheelbarrow or a hand-truck?

I've used both. Neither is "superior" in every way. Depending on the results I want to achieve, one may be more useful than the other in a specific circumstance. In OTHER circumstances ...

Arguing about which is better makes no more sense than arguing about which computer platform is "better".

135, 120/220 or 4x5 sheet?

120:

Arguing about which is better makes no more sense than arguing about which computer platform is "better".

I'll just drop 'ECS era Amigas with 4 Mb or more memory and a hard disk' for the MC68000 series here.

(I had an OCS A500 at the end of the Nineties, long after it was relevant, and never really programmed it, but many of my friends had Amigas and it was a brilliant machine - for its time. Atari ST was the competitor, at least here, but kind of lost the game. The hardware might have been part of it; Amiga had IMO better helper chips, at least in the beginning and later ST upgrades were too little, too late.)

Now I have the mini-Amiga re-issue, but it runs on an emulated MC680X0 and not the real chip. Sadly I think it's impossible to get new MC68000 chips with MMUs, otherwise I'd be tempted to build my own computer out of those. I haven't done anything real on the mini-Amiga either, I got annoyed because it comes with a joypad instead of a joystick and my trusty USB-Competition Pro doesn't map the buttons properly, so it's unusable.

I had an 8086 XT clone and later a 386, so I was never personally part of the Amiga-ST wars, but for a (seemingly) long time the x86 computers were worse gaming machines.

121:

The social media rumor to actual news article pipeline has gotten frighteningly fast

122:

Sadly I think it's impossible to get new MC68000 chips with MMUs, otherwise I'd be tempted to build my own computer out of those.

You might be interested in this project: http://www.apollo-core.com/ (Apollo Core 68080).

It is a 68000 implementation on a FPGA, but with a bunch of stuff that came out since the 68060 came out, including SIMD and 64 bit instructions.

123:

{ my snarky emphasis added just because }

A new movie from Kaledonia Pictures is being rushed into production to capitalise on the global infamy enjoyed by the story.

what would crack me skull open is if the resulting movie becomes in of itself a mega-uber-ultra-success akin to Harry Potter or Friday the 13th or Final Destination: GHCU

GCU ==> Glasgowian Horror Cinematic Universe

so... how about any local legends of...

evil(ish) undead? or maybe the postal worker who never ever delivers to the correct address? or the fish-n-chips joint serving up prophetic imaginations? or the lawyer who neve told a lie?

124:

Fuck me, this obviously needs to include the Gorbals vampire incident!

125:

Re: ' ...company registration and fraud in the UK'

Thanks for the article - published back in December 2022!

I'm guessing that this is still a problem in the UK and disappointed that it's also a problem in some of the EU countries. (Not surprised by which countries though.)

HowardNYC @ 110:

Re: 'Mercury in retrograde'

Yeah, why not!

Pigeon @ 111:

Re:' ... so inhumanly difficult and tedious to read ... to notice the errors ... smaller archives find they can't muster the resources to keep up ... even harder to check when their own data has been scraped ... So they go off-line in self-protection.'

Immediate reaction was - that sucks for small publishers, next reaction - so why not see whether there are any bored retirees who're obsessive enough to take on overseeing/babysitting this sort of stuff. (Like the obsessive guy mentioned in the Guardian article on UK co. registration & fraud.)

Pixodaros @ 115:

Re: '... So what very often happens is that four young academics create the journal of so-and-so, get issued DOIs, then one changes institutions, another gets a teaching job with no paid time for research, a third becomes a data scientist and a fourth becomes a train conductor. A few years later the original institution is updating its content management system and erases the page for the journal ("hey, we emailed the contact email on file warning that the page would be deleted unless they stepped in to fix it, and nobody told us not to do it - we got some 'this address is no longer in service' messages but that just proves that the website was not important").'

I'm hoping these content management system people don't have access to dead tree libraries! Are archives that difficult/expensive to operate? Also tanks my trust in institutions if they're blasé about maintaining their research/academic papers/journals.

Charlie @ 118: Chocolate factory villain

Makes me wonder whether this is some sort of contest to see who can come with the vilest so-called children's stories.

I saw the Gene Wilder version wa.a.y back - still don't understand how that movie could ever be considered a children's story: lots of smiling, toys, sweet treats and jokeyness --- and zero humanity. Dickens wrote about pretty grim (real-life) scenarios but he was also able to show that there is such a thing as humanity (compassion).

126:

Some of the demos I've seen for the AI make me think that it would be a great tool (not a replacement) for copy editors.

In theory, you should be able to do something like: "Read the following text. Give me a list of characters and a description. "

The output could then be reviewed by the copy editor, and if some character shows up with brown/yellow/red hair they may want to chase it down (unless the character wears disguises, then it gets trickier).

The point is, this is what computers SHOULD be used for, to amplify human capabilities, not replace them.

127:

In theory, you should be able to do something like: "Read the following text. Give me a list of characters and a description."

That's your problem, right there: LLMs lie creatively. They'll give you a list of characters and their descriptions and two thirds of the way through you'll discover you wrote Barney the Dinosaur and Captain James T. Kirk into your strictly realist-mode 19th century novel. Just because the LLM ran out of facts derivable from the input text and added a few.

And proofreading to detect that kind of lie -- not a simple error -- is hard.

128:

Charlie Stross @ 124:

Fuck me, this obviously needs to include the Gorbals vampire incident!

Why? Everybody knows vampires don't exist.

129:

And the actress dubbed "Meth Lab Oompa-Loompa" is now cashing in on the experience (after suffering several days of Internet hate):

https://gizmodo.com/viral-oompa-loompa-cameo-greetings-kirsty-paterson-1851307899

130:

Barneiosaurus is now considered to be the same species as the previously-known Ecclesiosaurus, first described by a pioneering but obscure early Canadian bone hunter who was later imprisoned as a suspected terrorist, following the rediscovery of the only recorded specimen underneath a pile of vampire's toenail clippings inside a piece of monumental architecture in the Gorbals cemetery, formerly used for archive storage by a religious institution dedicated to securing his release, to which he had donated it as a token of gratitude.

131:

Nice passive aggression there. Show me were I said "YOU should not use it".

I said I did not ever want to use it. I mentioned having been stuck with pagers... which might have suggested to you that I know more about it than you do. Maybe a B.Sc in computer and information science, and almost 40 years of experience as a programmer and Linux sysadmin, having worked on mainframes, minicomputers, and workstations, and that I created a database system, and assembled one, might give you more of the idea.

I know what I want to use, and if you want to use stuff I consider ridiculous, that's fine... that's your problem.

132:

Make them into roaches who "create" the chocolate "treats", and you'll really gross them out.

133:

You wrote: "I'm hoping these content management system people don't have access to dead tree libraries!"

Sorry, too late. Early 70's, I was working as a lab tech at the Franklin Inst. research labs. A competitor to Current Contents was brought into the labs. And then they got hold of the Institute's library. They sold off stuff (from the 1800s), and they'd get a subscription to a journal, and stop the subscription when they lost the contract, or the contract ended...

134:

ADMINISTRATIVE NOTE

These are the comments to my blog posts, not an open forum for old men to wave their walking sticks at passing clouds and shout angrily at each other!

(Also, I am deeply uninterested in all the film neepery.)

135:

...what I meant to type -- 4Q long covid brain fog -- was "lawyer who was cursed to never ever tell another a lie"

huh... 1954... pre-twitter... thus no teenagers texting 'n TikToking... nor a 3 Ghz laptop with video editing tools...

"Hysteria spread throughout Gorbals, and soon among the wider population"

so... update the tech from 1954 to 2032 when there's 6G or some other brain rotting higher speed of data to really vamp up TikTok... and just enough genuine competition to lower the cost of mobile phones to the point everyone over the age of three has one...

some foolish brats decide upon a Blairwitch Project all their very own as a combo school hand in and TikTok mega stir up to draw in eyeballs to see ads and their mockup of this creature as the click bait... now add in illegal firearms... improvised thermite-based flamethrowers in the feverish hands of comix-nerds and the usual lowbrow Molotov cocktails in sacks carried by drunken truck drivers (excuse me, would that be sodden lorry drivers?)...

WhatCoundPossiblyGoWrong(tm)?

136:

oooooooooooooooh...

you win the net this day... or leastwise this site...

137:

hmmm... how about... genetically spliced termites whose purpose is to gnaw on crumbling wood in abandoned houses to produce downmarket sweets for the poor folk...

just so happens there's a generous amount of benzodiazepine in the sweet treats...

how's that for dampening down upon unruly ghetto youth?

cheaper than providing decent education or allowing 'em to work at decent job

138:

Sorry for that I created some of your irritation.

139:

just so happens there's a generous amount of benzodiazepine in the sweet treats...

That's a terrible (read: depraved and murderous) idea. BZPs aren't safe, they just have a much wider therapeutic index than predecessors such as barbiturates. BZPs are also ferociously addictive, although the on-ramp and off-ramp are much slower than with opiates. Finally, tranquilized folk are extremely dangerous behind the wheel of a car, or on a bicycle. They're also a danger to themselves on public transport.

And sweets laced with tranquilizers are going to get into everyone's mouth sooner or later. (There's a reason jellies -- tempazepam capsules -- were made a controlled drug in the UK in the late 80s/early 90s; BZPs are downers and addicts in Glasgow were getting horrible abcesses from injecting the gel inside the temazepam capsules when they couldn't get hold of actual heroin.)

140:

It is not the university's journal, its a private organization run by the said four academics which faded away. The university just provides web hosting, and as none of their staff or faculty is involved in the journal any more, who should pay for the necessary work to keep it up?

Did I mention that making sense of the details as you migrate the site to the new software or version may require proficiency in multiple languages or graduate-level education in an obscure topic?

If its an old-school article which you can represent as a PDF, in theory the DOI could point to a server with the PDF and you just have to update the DOI when it changes servers (although its possible that the one academic with the password died in a tragic yo-yo accident or moved to Nepal and took a vow of silence). But that is not very machine readable, and does not work if there is say a main article (the "executive summary"), some appendices (the actual article), some sets of data, and so on. So more often the DOI points to a webpage generated from the database with a list of authors and links to their other publication, marked-up bibliographic information, one or more files with the contents of the article, etc. And as soon as you have that page powered by a database you have something which requires manual adjustment and updating whenever the university's systems change or the underlying software changes.

If you want a professional infrastructure team for your journal you could partner with one of the giant academic publishing corps like Eisevier. They will keep it up forever because they use it to squeeze as much money out of universities as possible.

141:

And as soon as you have that page powered by a database you have something which requires manual adjustment and updating whenever the university's systems change or the underlying software changes.

Over on Reddit people keep asking on the Wordpress forum why their "simple" web site request for their small store keeps being quoted by most developers in the $1000s. Or even over $10K. Why does it have to be so much and why is there maintenance? They keep thinking they are buying a hammer or circular saw at the local home center. Not something that has to be maintained over time. And in their mind things like credit cards are easy. After all they have this little terminal that Costco sold them for $300 that handles it now. Why is a web site different?

Oh, they want people to be able to BUY, have accounts, save credit cards, handle shipping charges and options, inventory with pricing and pictures, and so on.

142:

{ takes a bow }

horrid being the point

the only difference between your Tories and our Republicans is that "U" missing from "coloured poor folk"

{ to be clear about my politics, this is a big loud 4Q to both versions of amoral 1%ers }

if they had thought of it soon enough -- maybe in the 1990s -- there'd be bags of benzo-laced sweet-secreting termites in every impoverished neighborhood on both sides of the Atlantic

as to addictive properties... why else do you think I selected benzo?

143:

And as soon as you have that page powered by a database you have something which requires manual adjustment and updating whenever the university's systems change or the underlying software changes.

One day (in the late 90's), a suit from headquarters came to see us and asked the same kind of question. The N4 nuclear plant series were the first that were designed using 3D software instead of a drafting board. How could we garantee that plans and isometrics would be available for the lifetime of the plant (~80 years), as was mandated by law and also common sense?

I was tasked with answering that question (in a formal ISO9000 compliant way), and after a bit of research came to the conclusion that there were two ways of achieving that:
1- print everything on paper and store it at the site
2- create and maintain a team dedicated to updating the database software and data and other various programs.
Of course, solution 1 was chosen as being by far the cheapest and easiest to implement, but I had a feeling that the suits were disappointed I didn't come up with some magical solution.

144:

When I was in college in the late '70s, Valium were a popular recreational drug. They had the interesting property that mixing them with alcohol resulted in memory loss. Folks mixing them would appear to be reasonably coherent (*), but the next day have no memory at all of the events. They'd wake up having no idea what had happened to their stash.

(*) In context that is. When everybody was drinking pretty heavily, the standards for coherence were pretty low.

145:

create and maintain a team dedicated to updating the database software and data and other various programs.

Autodesk Revit has taken over much of the architectural and other design worlds. And is rev'd every year. And they stop issuing updates / fixes after 3 years. Not as long as a nuclear power plan but most commercial buildings take over 3 years from design start to finish. S firms get stuck with keeping the old software going or closing their eyes, hitting the IMPORT button, and seeing what happens.

146:

For data and publications that are "just files" there is a solution. Some universities maintain a repository for academic results, where deposited files are kept indefinitely. The implied intention is to keep them for a long as the university library continues in existence. The University of Cambridge has such a repository, and the university library has been around ~800 years, so the persistence is probably quite good, looking forward.

There is still the problem with being able to read the files after some great time. The repository curates metadata, not the file contents. It will not re-serialise into next century's preferred format for publications.

Any data-set that is active and searchable like a database is not supported (we tried, on one project, and they were not keen). You could deposit an SQLite file and hope, I suppose.

147:

So the obvious enhancement is "read this text; using only information from the text, give me...". You can say that now, but I don't know if the LLM would understand what you wanted, or how to comply, or whether it would actually try to comply if it did understand. I'm not sure that we could establish these things with a black-box test.

148:

found it!

what happens when people cannot read content for its information

(not sexist there's dozens of guys doing this exact response)

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/JncsrRSy46c?feature=share

150:

This calls for a lawsuit with ChatGPT legal briefs.

151:

"How did you do that?"

These people will keep tech support employed forever.

152:

I wonder if there are any laws that prevent a judge from using ChatGPT to write the decision... Codes of ethics, sure, but would it be illegal?

153:

You can't copyright names.

Also, in US case law there's a precedent that you can't copyright LLM output. Not sure how that'd translate to Scottish law, which is not the same as English law, which is not the same as US law (although English/US law forked in the late 18th century, and English/Scottish law was legislated by the same assembly from 1707 through 2000).

I suspect this is "House of Illuminati" trying a gimme for money to make them go away. If so, it's not going to work without lawyering up, and everything I've seen so far suggests that HoI is a low-capitalization grift.

154:

stirner @ 143:

"And as soon as you have that page powered by a database you have something which requires manual adjustment and updating whenever the university's systems change or the underlying software changes."

One day (in the late 90's), a suit from headquarters came to see us and asked the same kind of question. The N4 nuclear plant series were the first that were designed using 3D software instead of a drafting board. How could we garantee that plans and isometrics would be available for the lifetime of the plant (~80 years), as was mandated by law and also common sense?

I was tasked with answering that question (in a formal ISO9000 compliant way), and after a bit of research came to the conclusion that there were two ways of achieving that:
1- print everything on paper and store it at the site
2- create and maintain a team dedicated to updating the database software and data and other various programs.
Of course, solution 1 was chosen as being by far the cheapest and easiest to implement, but I had a feeling that the suits were disappointed I didn't come up with some magical solution.

It seems obvious to me that solution 1 is the ONLY reliable solution ... although my OWN bias would tend towards making backup copies of all the documents on microfiche.

155:

A friend of mine used to work in IT for a British government agency that dealt with infrastructure.

At one point he was charged with vetting the documentation filed by a construction firm who were building a major traffic-carrying bridge.

They were most irritated when he told them that no, providing a single copy of their proprietary database software running on a Windows laptop (Vista) with no other import/export option for the bridge schematics was not acceptable and did not meet the requirements for data retention and accessibility over a 75 year period ...

(It's a bridge! If it fails catastrophically, people probably die. If the conditions for which it was designed change drastically, eg. by climate change, coastal erosion, heavier usage, then it may fail. And if the maintenance crew don't have easy access to the design they may not be able to work out what's going wrong in time to save it. This nearly happened to the Forth Road Bridge a few years ago -- there's a reason it's only open to buses, bicycles, and pedestrians these days, and there's a shiny new bridge next to it that was build in a blinding hurry. Nobody wants to be responsible for the next Tay Bridge Disaster!)

156:

A few years ago one of the trades chaps at my school asked if I had any data on water pressure in the science labs. He was trying to do repairs to one of the five(!) heating systems in the building and had no schematics or blueprints to refer to. Those things _used) to be stored in the head caretaker's office, but a decade previously the Board decided to centralize storage so they were shipped off to the main office to be digitized.

Apparently the clerk in charge of running the scanner didn't notice that the building had five different heating systems, so digitized the last one built (assuming that it was the latest revision to a single system).

There's something to be said for retaining physical copies. And having your filing clerks actually know something about what they're filing…

157:

When I first started watching Stargate SG-1 I thought it was silly that the "ancients" left all their documentation on stone tablets. Another decade experiencing the ephemeral nature of digital storage gave me a different perspective....

158:

Zoë on Sluggy (https://sluggy.com/#2024-03-05) gets it right - ChatPCP.

159:

(Fully Immersive Actual Reality Tay Bridge Experience: you get a guided walk along the new bridge, to take in the spectacle of the remnants of the old piers alongside it. The tour guide plays wind and steam train sound effects on a ghetto blaster and when you get to the bit in the middle they push you off.)

Guy Rixon's post demonstrates the matter pretty well: much of the reason the library can succeed in being a useful repository for 800 years is that the data format and the equipment required to read it have stayed the same for 800 years. Modern methods go through multiple iterations of becoming increasingly obscure, for both those aspects in independent cycles, in less than a tenth of that time, and the difference is so stark and the signs of anything other than it getting worse so nonexistent that it's impossible to justify doing anything other than continuing to keep everything on paper.

Perhaps plain text files could provide a similarly long-lasting data format in the computer world, but I can't see anything comparable being possible with the equipment required to read it.

In either case you are imposing a kind of de facto "house style" in that anything the institution can accept for publication/archival must stick within limits little different from "what you can do on a typewriter" plus a few etchings. You naturally have to forget about including a database and a fancy custom client for it, and things like that. I don't really see this as much of a problem. As long as the data is there, and people can read it, the researchers en l'an 2800 can fettle up their own methods of getting it into whatever database package happens to be flavour du jour at the time, and still find that easier than trying to get some ancient Vista package to run. Plus they'll probably have invented so many more funky things to do with it by then that being limited to the ones we like doing now would if anything be even more awkward for them.

160:

Adding PCP to semi-(sweet-)hallucinated fully immersive experiences might just be the missing link! Enhance your imagination!

*Offer varies by region and international criminal law treaties

161:

This calls for a lawsuit with ChatGPT legal briefs.

How about legal arguments delivered in verse by a Greek chorus of lawyers in green wigs?

Wonky doodles, fiddle dee dee,
We have a lawsuit waiting for thee;
Wonky doodles, fuddle day day,
Mess with the estate and you will pay.

162:

I once worked in a team whose (company internal) abbreviation was 'PCP'. I found it hilarious but I think not all of the team members were that delighted or even knew other meanings.

163:

Absolutely. Dateline mid 1996CE - I had to read data recordings made on DEC PDPs, using ADA83 running on Sun SPARCStations under SunOS 4.1.3 (if I've remembered the OS revision correctly). This required knowing that the PDP used a 16 bit word length, and placed the LSB of the recorded value at bit 7 (indexing from 0) and the MSB adjacent to that at bit 8, so string slicing the PDP recordings by bytes, and swapping odd and even byres. Thankfully both systems were at least "same endian".

164:

Charlie
And, as we all know the greatest monument to Victorian Engineering still stands as a lesson for future ages.
And, yes, the successive operating companies & owners have kept VERY CAREFUL records.

165:

Perhaps plain text files could provide a similarly long-lasting data format in the computer world

You appear to be completely unfamiliar with SGML and the huge body of work on archival data formats that has been developing since the early 1970s, when mass storage sufficient to deal with the problem became available. (SGML -- standard generalized markup language -- is a semantic structured data representation intended for textual documents, developed by IBM and recognized as an ISO standard since 1986; XML and HTML are vastly cut-down subsets of it that very much lost the plot. Javascript was the original sin ...) Other computer documentation formats have been stable for longer periods of time, eg. the UNIX man page format (first released to the public in 1972, in use for over 50 years now).

Images are harder because the storage requirements are so much larger that compression algorithms are essential and so serialization is non-trivial.

But this stuff isn't rocket science and it's only the ineptitude and feckless indifference of commercial software vendors that has kept stable formats from becoming ubiquitous by now.

166:
Guy Rixon's post demonstrates the matter pretty well: much of the reason the library can succeed in being a useful repository for 800 years is that the data format and the equipment required to read it have stayed the same for 800 years.

If I give you a piece of 800-year-old writing, do you think you could read it*?

*Offer not valid to people who've learned Middle English and Middle English orthography, since you're exactly my point: you've been taught to read the data format.

167:

...or mayhap bikini briefs

though I'd opine for g-string, which are the briefest of briefs

168:

Hell, if you were given a piece of 570 year old writing printed in a language you understand, but using the typographical and layout conventions of the 1650s, could you read it?

I've seen a Gutenberg Bible and even if the language was comprehensible the typeface, kerning, line spacing, lack of familiar paragraph markers, etc. would render it opaque!

169:

I wouldn't say "opaque" (well not yet anyway) but certainly "damned hard work".

170:

still having flashbacks to the nightmare of users complaining their keyboard was missing an "any" key

this, due to so much software in both MS-DOS (1980s) & WIN (1990s onwards) displaying the prompt "press any key to continue"

in one memorable case, a bunch of extremely high salary employees at a gigabuck bank had a contest -- fifteen guys each tossed in a thousand dollars cash into winner-take-all kitty -- with the victory condition defined as which of 'em could reduce a tech support nerds to tears first

in my case, I was dragged into doing coverage due to staffing shortages during flu season and overall attrition (low salaries, miserable circumstances, no hope of advancement)

I was determined to never be forced into coverage so I drew out calls as long as possible along with scheduling way too many in-person responses by technicians

so unknowingly my scheme and their contest dovetailed and the guy who got me in the random timing of things was dead last loser after support call last 93 minutes

...and no, I was never dragged from my own assigned tasks to provide coverage

171:

No need to go back 500+ year. The US founding documents are hard to read in the original images for most English speakers. Even in the US.

All kinds of typography issues plus things like what we call "f" today being used for things where we use an "s" today.

Then how about cursive? Do they still teach it in the UK and other English speaking places? Apparently "kids today" are not being taught it in the US much anymore so they can't read grandma's letters.

Then there is a 5 generation genealogy done by my mother in law in her pre-teens or early teens in Germany. It was a thing to everyone to do such. Back when. Written in High German (Hochdeutsch) and using a very ornate script (I forget what it is call), well, finding someone to interpret it is hard. Even amongst Germans. Most of those who can read it were born before the 50s/60s.

172:

this, due to so much software in both MS-DOS (1980s) & WIN (1990s onwards) displaying the prompt "press any key to continue"

In the 70s and 80s offices getting computerized for the first time, at least in the US, got very very very upset when it was explained that no the lower case "l" can not be typed when you need to enter the number "1". Many low to mid range typewriters didn't even have a separate key for the number "1" and thus all kinds of muscle memory generated errors non stop with people trying to enter numerical fields.

After all they'd been doing it with the letter "l" key on their typewriter since Moses. Or so you'd think from the dressing down you'd get when caught up in the complaining.

173:

But this stuff isn't rocket science and it's only the ineptitude and feckless indifference of commercial software vendors that has kept stable formats from becoming ubiquitous by now.

How much is ineptitude and feckless indifference, and how much is a desire to lock customers into a proprietary software ecology where they must continually pay to access their own data?

One reason I keep my old computer running on outdated software is that I have a 12 TB Aperture photo library. Apple no longer supports Aperture, and I don't want to pay Adobe annually to access my photos. At one time Serif was planning on releasing a Lightroom competitor (like Affinity Photo is a Photoshop competitor) but that was years ago and it looks like it won't happen.

174:

how much is a desire to lock customers into a proprietary software ecology where they must continually pay to access their own data?

This attitude predates pay-to-play or cloud storage services by decades. It's easier to roll your own proprietary database with support for only those indexing/metadata features you specifically need than to implement a full-blown standards-compliant system that supports everyone's necessary features. (SGML is very much a kitchen sink approach to semantic information storage: IIRC the spec for a generic DTD/SGML parser using DSSSL pretty much mandates a lisp or scheme interpreter.)

175:

still having flashbacks to the nightmare of users complaining their keyboard was missing an "any" key

One of my acquaintances used to work tech support for the PMO. On Mondays many of the computers didn't work. He quickly learned that pointing out that the cleansers had unplugged them to vacuum the carpet got him in trouble, because the real issue was that the (self-)important people who worked there didn't want to crawl under the furniture themselves.

So he listed the solution as "rectified power supply discontinuity" on the support ticket, which sounded technical enough to avoid bruising egos, and collected his paycheque…

176:

IIRC the spec for a generic DTD/SGML parser using DSSSL pretty much mandates a lisp or scheme interpreter

IIRC = If I Recall Correctly. (I assume?)

No idea what the other acronyms mean. Or why a speech impediment would be necessary :-)

177:

I remember some Amiga game which had a screen which basically said

  • press any key to see the instructions
  • press a key to start

It took us some time to figure out how to start the game.

178:

It's easier to roll your own proprietary database with support for only those indexing/metadata features you specifically need than to implement a full-blown standards-compliant system that supports everyone's necessary features.

In a reverse bit of this, PDF files. Which started out as a way to print paper like things to a file you could send to someone else to read. Now, OMG. Security, text fields for entry, layers, and all kinds of nonsense.

A while back someone at a Mac club user meeting was getting upset that we couldn't tell him how to make PDF reader A give the same view as PDF reader B when viewing PDF files generated by a local government iMaps/GIS system. (A black hole to infinity of conflicting standards in itself.) He kept saying, "BUT IT IS A PDF FILE!". We kept trying to explain that PDF was a standard and not everyone did it right. He left the meeting and never showed up again.

179:

IIRC, SGML was "designed" by a lawyer, Charles Goldfarb, who became fascinated by computers and started selling IBM machines as a sideline. Standardized Goldfarb-Mosher-Lorie (the other two guys who helped him). The syntax and grammar are so complex they don't match any formal grammar families. So you need a full programming language to parse it, theoretically, because existing parser systems are all defined against formal grammars.

180:

All kinds of typography issues plus things like what we call "f" today being used for things where we use an "s" today.

Oh, you mean the 'long s' ('ſ')? If you're calling it an 'f', you're confusing it with a different letter that is drawn differently. It's a variant form of the lower case 's', but not used as the last letter of a word. (c.f. Ancient Greek 'lower case' sigma which also has σ except at the end of a word, where it uses ς)

It's an easy mistake to make as few people these days are trained to distinguish them, and to that extent you make a valid point.

(I'll leave the thorny difference between 'Ye' and 'Þe' for now.)

181:

you just had to open that can of worms... horrid, spiky smelly toxic-to-the-touch worms

one of the many reasons I tried to move from coding to design-n-documentation was the repeated and undying refusal of people to understand {0,1} NQ {O,l} and therefore typing upper “O” or lower “l” into zipcodes 'n phone numbers was wrong never mind MS Excel spreadsheets...

you got any idea how insane it gets to audit a workbook of fifteen tabs which when printed was sixty pages? and was composed of about 70,000 cells? consisting of a zillion formulas? now with 20/20 hindsight I know how to perform automated audits for many forms of corrupt data but back then I did by eyeballing 210,000 cells one-by-one... had to perform the examination 3 times due to my fear of missing something...

whereas purging any tainted databases is straightforward table lookups for valid zipcodes 'n phone numbers any of which are tainted can be resolved with about two hundred lines of code for parsing thru tedious, meticulous business rules... but due to unrepaired flaws in the application(s) in use, the data kept getting tainted over 'n over... so the repair thingie had to be run every morning...

and then there's all the other horrors of tainting 'n corruption 'n cluelessness I ran into over 40 years... it is going to take at least half a bottle of cheap arse vodka to wash out those memories

you opened up that can, now you get to stuff all those toxic-to-the-touch worms back into the can

{ cue: whimpering }

182:

The script was very probably Sütterlin (the German printed font was Fraktur).

183:

The long s lacks the crossbar (although bad print quality can make it hard to distinguish the two).

184:

ITYM Standard Generalized Markup Language. It was an attempt to do for semantically tagged textual information what SQL and the Relational Algebra did for databases. Goldfarb went down that rabbit hole initially because he wanted to store, search, extract, and export complex legal documents in a meaningful way.

Basically any large ongoing technical publishing project that needs a huge catalog of text with metadata uses it. I seem to recall US DoD documentation and specifications require it. XML is a very cut-down minimalist subset of SGML, with web affordances like hyperlinks and (blech) Javascript. CSS in turn adds formatting hints to the XML DTD -- a DTD (document type definition) is the prologue to an SGML document and defines its structure. (In programming terms: an SGML document is a data structure, and the DTD is its type declaration.) DSSSL was a metalanguage for specifying formatters for DTDs; you feed DSSSL a DTD and some lisp-like code and it spits out a renderer, if I recall correctly.

It got picked up elsewhere: for example, in the late 1980s the Royal Pharmaceutical Society coded up the British National Formulary in an SGML repository on a VAX cluster. The BNF is basically a compendium of the medicines prescribable by the NHS in the UK (and other non-NHS drugs nevertheless legal to prescribe under the Medicines Act) -- some thousands of drugs, their dosage, contraindications, interactions, and a bunch of other notes, cross-referenced and indexed six ways from Sunday. In 1988 it ran to about 600 pages; a more recent copy I bought in 2018 is over 1300 pages long, with two columns of fine print per page. And the paperback is updated with a new edition every six months. (These days pharmacies all access it online: but they still sell print copies sized so they're just small enough for a medic to jam in a lab coat pocket.)

185:

NB: Yes, SGML is the all-singing all-dancing document representation, but there's a reason I write novels using Markdown (or a tool that creates a hierarchy of simple RTF documents, namely Scrivener). I don't need the complex semantic metadata! Also, it melts the brain.

186:

Update on XML: XML doesn't have any Javascript affordance (although Javascript has slithered into the PDF and ePub 3 ebook formats). And the proposed XLink hyperlink capability never got adopted. (Source: Tim Bray, who co-authored XML.)

187:

Shudder. Why I'm not looking forward to going back to work on Monday (I've been off for 2 weeks). We got lumbered with a data dump from the NHS which we had to check against our database to see if (a) the person is still alive and (b) is or was an active social care service user. Before I went on leave I built a semi-automatic comparator to do the matching against a look-up of surnames. Out of about 6000 rows, I matched slightly under 50%.

The NHS data was dubious: Names (Forename and/or Surname) had hospital data included Dates of birth weren't valid date formats (days and months were missing the leading 0) or were in the futurel (01/01/2999???) Postcodes were incorrectly formatted or incomplete

The initial tranche was for people most likely to be on the books; I think I'm going to be asked to do the complete list...

188:

Oh, no, we don't want to use your data format, ours is Better (we invented it, after all), and out financial department insists we lock our users into it... until other people use it, then we'll invent a new one...

189:

Please, I don't ever want to need to read something typeset in Fraktur.

191:

Sheesh, you computer nerds want data that last for a thousand years?

DNA.

I'll leave it to you to figure out effective coding, reading, and data redundancy strategies, since long sequences do physically break into shorter sequences over time. But if researchers can pull partial Denisovan genomes out of the dirt in Denisova cave via shotgun sequencing, coding something more bigger and more ephemeral should be doable.

Here's a Popsci explainer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2ppreiB1PQ

192:

There is a simple answer to that.

'91-'92, I was working on a project to do with the Lake Michigan Ozone Study. We were going to tell all these sources how to format the data they were going to send to us. 100% of them said, "sorry, we don't have the budget for that. We'll send them in whatever format we have it in," which ranged from flat files to Lotus. The latter were the worst: reboot DOS computer, getting rid of ramdisk, boot Lotus, export as comma-delimited file, get out of Lotus, reboot.

Meanwhile, I had written a loader for the database in C. With the format we were told to expect. Har-de-har-har.

What saved me was... awk (a Unix scripting language). I wound up with about 30 awk scripts, which read the text files, checked all fields for validity (is it in range, etc), and wrote them out in the correct format for my loader. No eyeballing needed.

193:

It's an easy mistake to make as few people these days are trained to distinguish them, and to that extent you make a valid point.

Which was my point. [grin]

In Canada in the 80s, you could be a brand of mini computer terminal with the US keyboard, the Canadian keyboard, and if you wanted a French keyboard.

The US one was what we Mericans used. The French one was meant for the France market in Europe.

The Canadian one was the one Canadians of all stripes wanted as it had the French Cedilla letter where the Canadian's expected it to be located on the keyboard. The US keyboard didn't have it at all and the "French" keyboard had it in the "wrong" places. Lots of keyboard swaps as people kept ordering the wrong models.

194:

anonemouse @ 166:

"Guy Rixon's post demonstrates the matter pretty well: much of the reason the library can succeed in being a useful repository for 800 years is that the data format and the equipment required to read it have stayed the same for 800 years."

If I give you a piece of 800-year-old writing, do you think you could read it*?

*Offer not valid to people who've learned Middle English and Middle English orthography, since you're exactly my point: you've been taught to read the data format.

Probably not.

OTOH, I don't have to figure out WHAT the data format is before I can extract it to hard copy, so half the struggle is already accomplished. Even if I can't read it myself, I'm pretty sure I'd be able to find someone who CAN read that "data format" & translate it into something I can read.

And if I DO know what "data format" it's written in I can probably find a recent (last 100 years) translation already available on Big River ...

195:

Peter Watts mentioned that sort of thing as an aside in Echopraxia. Biologist type reminiscing about the days when you could discover novel gene sequences that didn't turn out to be plans for someone's municipal sewer system.

196:

Oh dear, oh dearie me ...
David L
I have a massive 88-ytear old tome, lavishly illustrated for the period ...

"Hundert Jahre Duetsche Eisenbahnen" ... all printed in Fractur, of course.

Um, err ...

I still write in Italic cursive, as carefully taught by my then "art" teacher, back in 1957/8, though my "hand" is nowhere as really neat as it once was - the joints are stiffening ...

197:

Howard NYC @ 170:

still having flashbacks to the nightmare of users complaining their keyboard was missing an "any" key

this, due to so much software in both MS-DOS (1980s) & WIN (1990s onwards) displaying the prompt "press any key to continue"

During my short stint on the phones in the Help Center for a major computer manufacturer, the quickest, easiest answer was the "any" key is the big long one in the middle of the keyboard's lower edge. My experience was even the WORST, most clueless callers were perfectly happy with that answer and didn't need to be told more than once.

198:

helpful hint:

look for 02/029/xx in non-leap years

look for 09/31/xx in all years

as to last names, mine is ten letters long and has been misspelled in at least fifty-seven differing ways... I stopped tracking simply because it stopped me from being happy in the moment {g}

you should try for phone numbers... no surprise those are never assigned twice... not until someone surrenders a number and the telecom re-assigns...

199:

David L @ 171:

No need to go back 500+ year. The US founding documents are hard to read in the original images for most English speakers. Even in the US.

All kinds of typography issues plus things like what we call "f" today being used for things where we use an "s" today.

I think y'all are missing the point. As hard as it may be to read old written texts - whether due to typography or language drift issues - you don't need to first figure out and "recreate" the hardware & operating environment before you can extract the text from storage ...

Then how about cursive? Do they still teach it in the UK and other English speaking places? Apparently "kids today" are not being taught it in the US much anymore so they can't read grandma's letters.

They weren't being taught "handwriting" even when I was in school. Cursive writing was still taught, but the techniques of letter formation that make cursive legible had already gone by the wayside ...

I think it's mostly because legible cursive writing takes LOTS of REPEAT practice and the schools just don't have enough time to devote to that practice nowadays. They certainly didn't have time when I was in school and as far as I know the teaching burden is orders of magnitude greater today.

I learned cursive in the second grade, and by the third or fourth, my handwriting had become an impenetrable scrawl (that I can't read even one day after I've written it) ... I reverted to printing everything I write ... especially after I got into High School & took drafting classes and learned to print neat, even ALL CAPS very quickly.

Teach kids to write in a way they're going to be able to read later ...

Then there is a 5 generation genealogy done by my mother in law in her pre-teens or early teens in Germany. It was a thing to everyone to do such. Back when. Written in High German (Hochdeutsch) and using a very ornate script (I forget what it is call), well, finding someone to interpret it is hard. Even amongst Germans. Most of those who can read it were born before the 50s/60s.

Still, if it is valuable enough to you, I bet you can find someone in the Languages Dept at a nearby university (maybe even NCSU, absolutely UNC) who can not only read it, but can translate it into modern German (or English) ...

200:

029 ==> 29 & 30 & 31

201:

David L @ 172:

"this, due to so much software in both MS-DOS (1980s) & WIN (1990s onwards) displaying the prompt "press any key to continue""

In the 70s and 80s offices getting computerized for the first time, at least in the US, got very very very upset when it was explained that no the lower case "l" can not be typed when you need to enter the number "1". Many low to mid range typewriters didn't even have a separate key for the number "1" and thus all kinds of muscle memory generated errors non stop with people trying to enter numerical fields.

After all they'd been doing it with the letter "l" key on their typewriter since Moses. Or so you'd think from the dressing down you'd get when caught up in the complaining.

Yet, anyone doing any real "number crunching" BEFORE the office PC came around was using a 10-key adding machine ... which is why the extended keyboard with a number pad became so popular.

The person using the computer didn't have to keep two separate machines (typewriter & adding machine) and then have to manually integrate two functions.

FWIW, my old IBM Selectric typewriter DID have separate keys for '1' & 'l' ...

I learned to type on an old Remington that didn't have any letters or numbers on the keys. Had to memorize where things were located without looking at the keys or at the output. I think having the Selectric with the additional keys eased my transition to computer keyboards.

I think computers have made me a lazy typist because nowadays I DO look at the output and "auto-correct" any errors as I go along (i.e. backspace & retype as I go along).

202:

HowardNYC: MaddyE specified going back to work in the NHS. Which means your helpful date search advice will not work because they are almost certainly not dealing with American-formatted dates: it'll be either DD/MM/YYYY or ISO standard YYYY/MM/DD. Nobody else uses the American nonsense.

203:

I've no idea what o/s Maddy's using at work, but if they're interested, I'd be willing to write an awk script to help (and of course it's available on Windows, as well as Android, and Linux, and...

204:
OTOH, I don't have to figure out WHAT the data format is before I can extract it to hard copy, so half the struggle is already accomplished. Even if I can't read it myself, I'm pretty sure I'd be able to find someone who CAN read that "data format" & translate it into something I can read. And if I DO know what "data format" it's written in I can probably find a recent (last 100 years) translation already available on Big River ...

You have confidently and firmly missed my point entirely.

"Text on paper" is a storage technology; knowing the data format involves knowing the writing system and language it's written in, which - if you're not an expert - can be completely a mystery. It's not like manuscripts come with a universally understandable note about what language they're in!

205:

If I give you a piece of 800-year-old writing, do you think you could read it*?

Several scripts of that approximate age exist that no living person can read. So the trivial answer is: no.

Even if we exclude the deliberate Spanish destruction of quipu, there's the Rapa Nui script to consider. Plus the even more recent invented probably-a-language Voynich manuscript.

206:

Robert Prior @ 176:

"IIRC the spec for a generic DTD/SGML parser using DSSSL pretty much mandates a lisp or scheme interpreter"

IIRC = If I Recall Correctly. (I assume?)

No idea what the other acronyms mean. Or why a speech impediment would be necessary :-)

I didn't know either, but I did recognize it had something to do with "data standards"

"According to Google":

Document Type Definition/Standard Generalized Markup Language ... Document Style Semantics and Specification Language ... apparently ISO (International Organization for Standardization [and why isn't the TLA for that IOS?]) standards for document stored electronically.

Lisp should have been capitalized to differentiate the programming language (LISt Processor), or more correctly LISP ...

According to Wikipedia "Scheme is a dialect of the Lisp family of programming languages created during the 1970s at the MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory" ... 😏

207:

198 - Maddy, do you have patient CHI number as a field in your table(s)? If so, that should be a correct short form DOB, for someone born today 070324, followed by a 4 digit unique number. As implied it's even already 0 (zero) stuffed for values 00 to 09, so that First January Two Thousand starts 010100.
And you can extract DOB with =LEFT({that column},6). I'll leave you to sort out SUBSTR if you want day, month and year in separate columns.

202 - Charlie, the UK NHS uses short form UK, that's DDMMYY, not long form or USian.

208:

202 - Charlie, the UK NHS uses short form UK, that's DDMMYY, not long form or USian.

Ah yes, being unable to handle centenarians is so much less of a problem now that COVID19 has been encouraged to thin the herd ...

209:

It's not like manuscripts come with a universally understandable note about what language they're in!

This is where it helps to have access to the NSA's bible archive! (Warning: google/internet search is useless for locating this, because "bible" is contaminated by far too many jeezemoid sources.)

Basically the NSA used to (or still does) grab a copy of the Bible in every known language, to use as a Rosetta Stone. And there are a lot of translations, because the first thing a Christian missionary does on discovering a hitherto unknown tribe somewhere is to learn enough of their language to translate the Bible, so they can evangelize the heathen.

Per Bamford's book "The Puzzle Palace" they had over a thousand Bibles in their archive ... and that was in the early 1990s.

210:

Going back to the original topic, a friend claims that someone has proposed a "Dune Experience" ...

... a warehouse with a pile of sand containing a couple of earthworms.

211:

Search for:

Falsehoods Programmers Believe About Names Falsehoods Programmers Believe About Addresses Falsehoods Programmers Believe About Time Falsehoods Programmers Believe About Time Zones Falsehoods Programmers Believe About Phone Numbers Falsehoods Programmers Believe About Gender Falsehoods Programmers Believe About Geography Falsehoods Programmers Believe About Email

(I'm not sure which are the definitive versions, so no links, I'm afraid.)

212:

The way I heard it, the more commonly known acronym expansion (Generalized Markup Language) was produced as a back-formation after the Goldfarb-Mosher-Lorie project had already yielded GML. Not sure it's the truth, but a marginally more interesting story.

XML was an attempt to produce a variant for which single-pass parsers could be written, for the Web. No (indeed, bletcherous) Javascript involved.

213:

I don't have to figure out WHAT the data format is

Well, no. We define "recorded history" such that if you don't immediately recognise it then it's not a record of history and thus the primitive savages using it can be exterminated to make way for superior races. Hooray for progress, glory to the empire!

Meanwhile we have such things as the stone currency of Yap, the many whistled "spoken" languages, and written forms from hieroglyphics to morse code suggesting that humans have an amazing ability to come up with diverse solutions to problems. Not to mention arguments about "what is agriculture" and "what is language" not to mention the joke about "I don't know what that's for, must be a ritual purpose" that complicate the question even further. If you don't realise that it's a language, how could you possibly look for a written representation of it?

So, for example, if orca use carefully arranged seal bones stuck in the sand as a form of vagrant sign, who would notice and how would they work out what those mean*.

https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20180502-the-tiny-island-with-human-sized-money

(* a special shout-out to the geeks so desperate for new project names that almost any combination of search terms leads to a recent computer-based project rather than a historical explanation)

214:

anonemouse @ 204:

" OTOH, I don't have to figure out WHAT the data format is before I can extract it to hard copy, so half the struggle is already accomplished. Even if I can't read it myself, I'm pretty sure I'd be able to find someone who CAN read that "data format" & translate it into something I can read. And if I DO know what "data format" it's written in I can probably find a recent (last 100 years) translation already available on Big River ..."

You have confidently and firmly missed my point entirely.

"Text on paper" is a storage technology; knowing the data format involves knowing the writing system and language it's written in, which - if you're not an expert - can be completely a mystery. It's not like manuscripts come with a universally understandable note about what language they're in!

And you might have missed my point as well.

"Text on paper" doesn't require me to figure out what the different "bits in storage medium" are [and how to extract them] before I can even produce "text on paper" ...

I can't even see the bits, but I can see text once it's on paper.

I recognize quite a few languages1 I don't read, write or speak ... If I've got "text on paper" I've already got a head start figuring out the language (... and finding a translation I can read).

So no matter how obscure a text might be, it's still more accessible than "bits in storage medium" where I don't even know how the bits are assembled into data.

And maybe nobody knows because the machine is so obsolete no one who ever used it is still alive today? Text is just easier to decipher.

1 "Middle English" being a bit more instantly recognizable than "Olde English" ... being that by "Middle English" a lot of modern words have crept into the language.

215:

... a warehouse with a pile of sand containing a couple of earthworms.

They need to be what we call night crawlers. 20cm or so long. So big ones to similar the ones in the movie. Well to the standard of the Wonka experience.

But no refreshments allowed. Just a catheter from there to your mouth. You know, for the TRUE experience.

216:

Charlie Stross @208:

"202 - Charlie, the UK NHS uses short form UK, that's DDMMYY, not long form or USian."

Ah yes, being unable to handle centenarians is so much less of a problem now that COVID19 has been encouraged to thin the herd ...

For personal use on the computer I find the format "YYYYMMDD" easiest, because even Windoze can sort the date correctly.

For writen dates, I prefer DD Mmm YYYY - for me, today is 07 Mar 2024**. If I get my camera out, any photos I take will be stored in the folder "20240307-whatwasItakingphotos_of"

** Or more precisely 16:54R07Mar2024

217:

At the moment, we're on Win 10 until the new laptops arrive. As it happens, I work in local government in Adult Social Care, so we have a lot of dealings with badly formatted NHS data. What do you mean we can't put the ward name in one or both name fields - the delivery driver knows what it means? (At least there's no warnings about exotic pets in the name fields in this dataset.) Why is that hyphen necessary??? What's wrong with missing out 0 from days and months - it's still a legible date... The system being used for these Occupational Therapy equipment orders doesn't appear to have heard of data validation.

Basically, the data dump is in Excel, I clean it up, deal with multiple variants of multi-word surnames (with or without hyphens). Out of that, I pull a list of unique surnames. Those get input into Business Objects which then extracts a list of possible matches in our database and creates 7 different look-up values using combinations (at least 2 or) of Forename, Surname, Date of Birth & Postcode. I then match in Excel using the same combinations. The only thing that's a niggle is that serial dates are slightly different in BO and Excel, so I have to turn the DoB into text, split it into dd, mm, and yyyy (preserving the leading zeros) and create text look-ups.

At least now I have created a template that does it mostly automatically instead of querying the database manually. The main time sink is the initial data cleansing, but that's easy enough in Excel with column filters turned on - I drop the raw data into the template, and check the calculations. If I find something weird, I fix the raw data in the template.

Thinking about it, I think the data dump isn't from the NHS spine; it's from the company providing the equipment, which explains a lot about the poor data quality.

218:

Sadly not, that would be far too easy. It's why I think the order system isn't NHS-built.

219:

Clive Feather @ 210:

Going back to the original topic, a friend claims that someone has proposed a "Dune Experience" ...

... a warehouse with a pile of sand containing a couple of earthworms.

You can tell your friend that at least one other person thought the joke was funny. 😉

220:

Oh, gag. And no one in upper management cares enough to say "it SHALL be done this way". Glad you have some means of checking that is not all eyeballs, all the way.

221:

Since the headmaster of the primary school I attended (in Kent, circa mid-60s) was the author of one of the standard textbooks for teaching cursive (we knew it as ‘italic’) writing, yes, we learned it. Interestingly he was also left-handed, so I didn’t suffer the common torture of being forced to write wrong-handed, unlike my wife (damn those nuns forever). And for more amusement he & his teacher wife spoke Welsh in classrooms when they didn’t want the kids to know what was being said. I never did tell them I understood; not that I was fluent and certainly not anymore.

As for the cursive handwriting.. well I don’t exactly write much on paper these last 40 years, so I have trouble reading anything not done with great care and slowness.

222:

... and just to screw things up further, I learned while standardization was still an ongoing process, so my personal way of doing things doesn't conform to modern practice

... it should technically be 215420240307 (Zulu time implied, no colon between hours & minutes).

223:

There are multiple "falsehoods programmers believe about..." collections on Github. I found a collection there years ago with over 200 of these documents.

A quick search just now produced this "curated list" (first in the results): https://github.com/kdeldycke/awesome-falsehood

Here's a thread discussing that list: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24405941

TL;DR Nightmare fuel for programmers.

224:

so we have a lot of dealings with badly formatted NHS data

You sound like me with Excel.

5+ years ago we had an office convert from an ancient in house mail system to Microsoft 365. And they wanted the managements (5 people) contacts cleaned up and merged. Which meant 15 difference sets of lists. Address books in phones and in email and that Christmas list in Excel and ....

I started with about 30K entries. Lots of sorting by various fields and moving clumps of columns around. Phone 2 used by one person to hold their child's name and such. But matching on phone numbers and emails (left side first) and such.

When done I had it down to around 5K names that were unique and had unique, well mostly unique, emails.

But there was still a lot of crap floating around. .co or .cmo or whatever that should have been .com and on and on and on. Not to mention email address or phone number changes that only got put in 1 or some of the various collections.

Then a partner died and the company split in half. Big mountains of emails to various people that were bouncing telling them about the changes.

225:

I first did this when the BBC sent us a list of licence holders for the digital switchover way back when. Later, I improved the 'automation' when I was asked to provide a list of people who had died and had been notified via the 'Tell us once' system to flag records for closure.

It's the later techniques I've recreated for the current use-case.

I agree that data quality these days is an afterthought and nobody cares enough to enter data correctly in the first place (or is in too much of a hurry to do so).

226:

"If I give you a piece of 800-year-old writing, do you think you could read it*?"

In what script/medium/language?

Something written in a book by monks in 1224 would be a struggle, to say the least. Something written on a gravestone by the corpse marker production operative, not so much, as long as it hadn't eroded away. There is plenty of graffiti still around from ancient Romans writing on walls which is as legible as anything done by someone whipping out his pencil as the twilight falls (and says much the same things). On the other hand the kind of large-scale multicoloured graffiti that people execute at lightning speed with a sack of different spray cans, while it is nearly always a considerable improvement on the ungraffitied appearance of whatever it's on, nevertheless annoys me because despite its use of Roman alphabet letters it's still impossible to work out what it says. I can't read any variety or age of Chinese characters at all, but I have still once or twice found the Chinese side of an instruction sheet for some gadget more informative than the English side.

But that kind of problem is at a higher level than what I was talking about. The data format in all those cases, in the sense I meant, is the same: visually contrasting marks which can be recognised in relation to particular pattern archetypes by the human brain. This is also the fundamental form in which any archived data must be represented in order to be any use to start with. Existing archives can maintain their usefulness for 800 years because they only have to concern themselves with the physical preservation of the items, and as long as they can manage that the data they represent remains available.

Finding it hard to read old monky writing is just another instance of the individual need to be able to understand the kind of thing you're dealing with in general before you can understand a particular example of it. It's the same thing as not being able to understand a modern paper written in Chinese because you don't understand Chinese, or not being able to understand a paper about boosting the body's response to HIV because you don't understand advanced immunology.

Computerised archive storage brings in a whole new extra set of levels that have to be negotiated before you even get to this point, which are themselves just as much of a specialism as advanced immunology and are full of obscure wrinkles that only one or two people know about. Any particular behaviour, even if it looks simple, depends on an enormous number of intertwined strands once you come to dig into it, and they go right down into the abyssal levels where people swimming at lesser depths, if they are aware of them at all, take them so much for granted that it never occurs to them that they are not actually eternal truths. Like paws's example of an architecture that stores words inside out. It's at a low enough level that even assembler programmers won't notice it most of the time, and it will never cross the mind of anyone just using the system at an ordinary user level. Since everything you use on the system is written and compiled on that system, it all works, and continues to work as different bits are updated, so everything is fine. But when years later you try and read the data on a system that stores its words differently, everything is screwed, and it needs a specialist in unscrewing that particular kind of lesion to come in before the specialists in whatever the data is all about can start to use it. Which is like people new in a department of a paper office needing to read old documents and discovering that the thing the previous occupants thought was a long term storage box was actually a shredder.

227:

Hah. I thought computer character sets were great, because finally I could actually type a 1. l never looks right even with serifs. I looks worse. And I could also type a 0. And a !.

228:
In what script/medium/language?

Bingo. :-)

I seem to remember someone suggesting that digital data be archived as bitmaps printed on acid-free paper at some point, though I can't find it again now. Presumably this was for maximum inconvenience on every axis?

229:

So are your comparing your zeroz and letter "ooohs".

Which are narrow and which are wide. Does one or the other have a slash?

I've seen all 4 combinations within an hour on paper.

And those stupid 30 to 50 character license keys that for security reasons you can't paste into the field. If possible I tend to copy them into a text editor, blow up the size, then make sure I'm on a font where zeros and ooohs and the letter ell and the number one are all easy to tell apart.

230:

Something written in a book by monks in 1224 would be a struggle, to say the least

Someone on Reddit recently put up a picture of a very ornate letter. And asked if it was a "B" or an "E". The consensus seemed to be "E". I could have gone with either answer. But there were subtle clues to people who worked with such things.

231:

ISO8601 starts from years and works its way down to milliseconds but it can be truncated at any interval. 2024 is a perfectly compliant ISO8601 date specifying a year, as is 2024-03-07 specifying a day. 2024-03-07 23:30 specifies a time to plus or minus a minute and so on. The punctuation can be omitted but it does make it easier for meatbags to read at a glance and provides a certain level of verification and error checking.

232:

It's also useful for sorting by time. (Sorting with more general text can get complicated, however. Unicode makes a total mess of it.)

So I use ISO8601 dates whenever I'm given a choice.

233:

"Then how about cursive? Do they still teach it in the UK and other English speaking places? Apparently "kids today" are not being taught it in the US much anymore so they can't read grandma's letters."

I learned that as a matter of course at my first school. I also learned to call it "joined-up".

At my second school other kids saw me doing it and went "Ummmmm. Look, he writes double. I'm telling." The teacher didn't really object, but still seemed to be a bit put out.

At my third school it was expected that we had already learnt it; writing "double" was normal, and people who wrote "single" must be thick. If you had really neat writing you were even allowed to write in ink.

At my fourth school nobody knew the expressions "single" and "double". If we called it anything, we said "joined-up", but it was so universal that there was rarely a need to distinguish. And everyone wrote in ink.

At my fifth school some people started to write in biro. Gradually other people would notice that they were doing it all the time and consistently getting away with it, until eventually nearly everyone did it. Some especially daring iconoclasts even started writing in felt pen.

These days there seem to be a disturbing number of adult people even in responsible positions who don't merely write single, they write baby writing - the simple, unformed, rounded script that people produce at the stage of having only learned to copy the maximally-simplified letter forms the teacher wrote on the board, before they have developed any individual style of their own. They haven't even learned not to mix up big and little letters yet. And even more than was the case with the class at that stage of learning, they all write the same. They're still all trying only to produce direct copies of the teacher's blackboard style, except that now they're grown up they can copy it more closely.

Not that they're much better using a keyboard. And nobody even stops them getting away with it. I've had letters and emails from customer service departments which, although the computer ensures that they use correct spelling, are still semantic soup. The management don't seem to realise what a bunch of incompetent shits it makes their company appear - but then how would they, when they do no better themselves.

234:

underlying notion can be applied to:

YYYYMMDD

MM/DD/YY

DDMMYY

people will mistype values which any well written code ought trap before proceeding further

problem being so little code is as well written as we need it to be

would you like to guess how many entries of dates include howlers such as 31-SEP-2018?

my personal favorite was the developer on a Y2K remediation project at REDACTED BANK in late 1900s who refused to understand that 29-FEB-1900 being invalid but 29-FEB-2000 is valid and 29-FEB-2100 is also invalid

no actual bloodshed but my refusal to back down got me fired at 2:00PM and rehired at 3:00PM as I was being escorted off site

235:

regarding your

why isn't the TLA for that IOS?

blame the French

236:

I've made up my mind so stop trying to confuse me with additional facts {G}

besides... most such posts are hardly distilled down into pure wisdom...

237:

do you know how it hurts my eyeballs when ever I see "ill" as the first word in a sentence on web pages using 'elegant fonts' that turn it into "lll" rather than "Ill"?

plenty of days I loathe those obsessive bastards who've created a zillion fonts for no better reason than "why not inflict blurriness upon the masses?"

238:

One of the problems with sorting text is homoglyphs leading to ambiguity in sort order. If you don't know which language you're sorting it's hard to do it correctly (despite the pretentions of some here). There are likely multiple sort orders for a given language based on characteristics of the data (people's full names may sort differently from partial names, street addresses may sort sans numbers etc that precede them (it's the etc that will get you), there may be gender-based rules that rely on external data, and so on).

239:

please note the following will be a rather shallow reason to get drunk

so plan ahead and stockpile low grade booze

2026-06-29 Mon ==> Day 100000 of the UK Gregorian Calendar

240:

Also, with data putrification never underestimate human creativity. You may think that you can correct "Wahsington" to "Washington" but then you discover that wellactually the former is a town in Durango and now what do you do?

Having to manually fix an address database has traumatised me forever. As with Shakspeer, not everyone who roamed Australia bestowing their names and the names of their associates on everything they saw had a consistent way to spell their name. We also have a number of similarly named individuals doing that, so you get Smith's Creek, Smyth's Creek, Smythe's Creek and Schitt's Creek all in the same area. Or not, depending on which exact Smith's Creek you're referring to.

Not to mention the updates to new revised improved updated spelling v2.32.18b so that now "Wanganui" is spelled "Whanganui" and every paper record ever was wrong (or not, depending).

241:

The US National Archives are looking for volunteer cursive readers to transcribe Revolutionary War pension documents:

https://www.archives.gov/citizen-archivist/missions/revolutionary-war-pension-files

242:

In German there's always the fun question of whether you sort the letters with umlauts with the "base" letter (e.g., ä with a), or after the z in the alphabet. Ditto questions about where to sort the ß. And there are some Germans who take pride in not sorting those letters in the same way as is recommended for the particular application.

243:

"At least there's no warnings about exotic pets in the name fields in this dataset."

If you encounter a name field containing only the single word Pigeon, it isn't an error, it's me.

You will also likely find other blank fields, eg. "title", "date of birth", "phone number". Or the numeric entries especially may be invalid ones that the software isn't clever enough to catch, or just plain random. It all depends firstly on whether, having bypassed the client side validation entirely, I found enough holes on the server side to be usable, and secondly whether having failed to find such holes, I cared enough to apply for whatever it was by post instead of by internet so I could leave actual blanks, or was content just to fill in rubbish.

The point being that ad-hoc database fettling hacks will encounter not only genuine errors/carelessness, but also the consequences of people disagreeing with you over what counts as a correct entry and/or whether particular entries should exist at all. "You" does not mean you personally, since I consider my medical records to be one of the very, very few cases that actually matter, so I allow slack to the NHS over this. But it still requires a conscious effort to remember I'm talking to a medical person and still give them actual answers if the question itself isn't directly medical, instead of automatically spouting the first random rubbish that comes into my head as the modern explosion of computerised nosey parkers has trained me to do.

Which brings us back somewhere adjacent to the original topic, since the automated and indiscriminate scarfing of data followed by its unsupervised and unchecked barfing under a veil of apparent plausibility creates more new possibilities for bad things to result than I care to think about.

244:

"the updates to new revised improved updated spelling v2.32.18b"

And new revised improved updated transliteration conventions. Which add extra confusion by seemingly always being revised away from looking like they ought to sound at least vaguely like what the word actually does sound like, and towards some abstract notion of "correctness" that has nothing to do with pronunciation - an idea that gets dafter and dafter as the source language's script gets further and further away from the English model of assembling words from an alphabet of letters with vowels and consonants.

245:

800 years ago, I wouldn't know..

80 years ago, I could maybe work it out with some contemporary documentation

8 years ago, bitmaps could be recreated with some paints and i's and o's

8 days ago, I can't even tell who's speaking the same language

https://brill.com/view/journals/nun/39/1/article-p163_9.xml

246:

And another version: in the late 1970's I was involved on the periphery of a data conversion project using paper based (card) records from a couple of decades earlier. They wanted the information loaded onto "mag tape" as the boxes of cards (and contents) got damaged over time when processed too regularly...

Our local NZ "Ministry of XXXX's National XXXX Statistics Centre" had the results of a number of decades of statistical data of a technical nature stored on punched cards that we were converting to mag tape to make them more "usable" for ongoing statistical analysis purposes. Literally millions of them.

Yes, the project did have a card reader that worked quite well. Problems encountered included the format of the cards (and column positions) changing from year to year, no characters written on the tops of the cards, the sticky labels on the boxes had frequently fallen off as the glue dried and failed, and things like disease codes (ICD?) changed on a regular basis. And some boxes the cards were apparently infected with a variety of wood worm that apparently liked chewing on cardboard. And if the cards got bent/folded/spindled/mutilated (or wet) - frequently by the box containing them getting damaged - the card reader couldn't/wouldn't reliably read them.

And they were converted/written to half inch 1,600 BPI 12" tape reels using a DECsystem-10 computer's tape drives. Which almost certainly no-longer exist and hence not more readable (or correct) today?

247:

Nojay @ 231:

ISO8601 starts from years and works its way down to milliseconds but it can be truncated at any interval. 2024 is a perfectly compliant ISO8601 date specifying a year, as is 2024-03-07 specifying a day. 2024-03-07 23:30 specifies a time to plus or minus a minute and so on. The punctuation can be omitted but it does make it easier for meatbags to read at a glance and provides a certain level of verification and error checking.

Yeah, I don't know if my way of doing it meets ISO standards, but it allows the computer to sort the folders in date order so I can find the photos I'm looking for.

The other bit was just how I had to hand-write time & date (and other stuff) in message traffic when I was in the Army and it was my turn to monitor the radio ... format the message so anyone else who had to read what I copied won't have to waste time trying to figure out if that's the number '2' or the letter 'Z', number zero or letter 'O' ... that sort of stuff.

And were times & dates given in the message Local Time (Romeo or Charlie) or UTC (Zulu)?

As noted I think the NATO standard changed1 since I retired, but I'm no longer in the Army so I don't have to conform to current standards when I'm writing notes for myself ... I just have to use a format I'll be able to understand when I run across the note again at some later date.

1 I believe ALL times/dates are currently given in UTC (Zulu) and you have to calculate the offset to local time locally ...

248:

And they were converted/written to half inch 1,600 BPI 12" tape reels using a DECsystem-10 computer's tape drives. Which almost certainly no-longer exist and hence not more readable (or correct) today?

NASA might be able to help them.

They started on dealing with such things over 20 years ago. Someone or ones starting noticing they had all kinds of sensor data from various missions that was on a pile of mag tape formats. And a non trivial number on tape formats created by wizards for the mission. They started a project to move the data off mag tap to actual disk storage.

Many times it involved finding old computers in various surplus places or in non first world countries in Africa, the former Soviet Block or similar where they found them still in use. Or recent use.

The hardest were the custom built for a mission or few tape drives where they couldn't figure out from the extant engineering drawings just how they worked and so went door knocking to see who was still alive and had a memory of the details of a project they were on a few decades earlier.

249:

The US National Archives are looking for volunteer cursive readers to transcribe Revolutionary War pension documents:

I can read most cursive written by people in this or the previous century. Prior to that many examples I've seen get, well, interesting. Think of those monks and the illustrative ways they did things at times. And the ff/ss things discussed up thread.

I pulled up some microfiche of census records (USA) hand written about my family. This was around 1970 reading records 100+ years old. Penmanship was apparently not one of the most important qualifications of the folks who rode horseback to farms and small communities in the rural US taking down information.

AIUI, the Mormons have converted most of those into a data base you can search. But there are warnings about possible errors. And I've bumped into a few when searching their records.

250:

There are likely multiple sort orders for a given language based on characteristics of the data (people's full names may sort differently from partial names, street addresses may sort sans numbers etc that precede them (it's the etc that will get you), there may be gender-based rules that rely on external data, and so on).

Then we get into Chinese, Japanese, and similar.

Anyone her know about the current debate about naming newborns in Japan? Apparently there are cultural rules. And for a while now some new parents aren't following them. And as the kids grow up not all places that require a written name are going along with what is on the birth records.

Or something like this.

251:

218 - "Not NHS built"; In that case I feel your pain and sympathise, but can't help further. :-(

233 - I feel your pain also. In some cases I've responded to this sort of unpunctuated stream of conciousness with "Could you write that again, but in English this time please?"
A likely response to me will be (as they type it) "you fucking understood me".
A third party with then reply with something like "No we didn't actually."

243 - Similarly since both "Paws4Thot" and my birth certificate name with the last 2 characters substituted with "11" (eleven) are usually accepted by systems that demand that "you have a number in your username".

252:

Aotearoa has the fun law that your legal name is the name you are known by, but there are rules for legal names. So you get situations where, say, someone's police record has to be printed out and umlaut's manually drawn onto the "alias" field entries before it is accurate, because "the computer says no umlauts" but Geörge has an umlaut and no two ways about it. Some computers are smart enough to say "the preferred name field is not subject to the Law Of Official Names" and others notsomuch.

This become an issue of racial tension when the macron is not permitted and those who would use it decline to use double vowels. The new gubbermunt has solved this problem by decreeing that official documents shall not use marry words. I don't know what their solution is where there's no commonly used engrish word. Like Taupo or Rotorua.

253:

There was a joke of a book in the early 80s in the US called something like "The Yuppie's Handbook" or similar.

It had a chapter on names. Many young hip couples would name their new child something like Tiffany Amber Smith and get legal docs about it. Then a week later at the Christening prep the priest refuse to allow a name where at least one of the bits wasn't from the Bible.

Oops. Relatives in best clothes and such on the way in from far away for the service tomorrow. And many of the older ones if total agreement with the priest.

254:

Surely the solution is to give the child a christian name that is different from their legal name? Much as you can be religiously married without bothering the government about it (or vice versa if you prefer vice)

255:

I'm not in these faiths. But I think there is/was a strong tradition that your name in both realms match. No pretending to be of the faith and such.

Legally the name was fine. But to the "family" not being sprinkled soon after brith was a very very big deal. And for many still would be in terms of family relationships.

256:

But to the "family" not being sprinkled soon after brith was a very very big deal. And for many still would be in terms of family relationships.

This could also be a source of (in my opinion) unnecessary strife when the person decides to change their name later in life. Either the real, daily name, or the official one. It seems there are a lot of people for whom the name of a person is basically set in stone when first given and it cannot be changed later, especially not by the person in question.

Which seems to me to be a bit... inflexible. Nobody has greater authority of what their name should be except the person in question (well, states often have some restrictions), and not trying to use the name people want to be used of them seems quite impolite, to say the least. Sometimes it feels like maliciousness when people use a name which the person in question does not want to be used.

Also people often do have many names, depending on the situation and circles, and time. I haven't changed my official name as I'm quite fond of it and comfortable with it, but I have had many nicknames and obviously I'm not called by my full name basically ever. 'Mikko' is quite a common first name in my age cohort so most of us have been called by surname or various nicknames.

I used to be called 'Jay' in some contexts in real life, too. This was the nickname of an MMORPG character I played for years and our player collection was very international. In live meetings it was easier to just use the character names and I still know many people only by their in-game name. The name has no connection to my 'real life' but I still got occasionally confused when some other people had that as their nickname.

257:

Data point from England: out of myself, spouse, and six children, NONE of us have the same name on birth certificate and passport.

258:

Another source of confusion: if you buy a railway ticket for use today in Britain, it will say "MCH" and not "MAR".

You'd be amazed how many forgeries that catches.

(Only five months - JNR, FBY, MCH, JLY, and DMR - have non-standard abbreviations. Wikipedia claims it's to increase the Hamming distance.)

259:

I am not sure how they solved that problem. I got a different job in mid 1980's and lost track with that organisation's data processing division. But being a government organisation, I am sure they did try and solve it.

Certainly by late 1980's/early 1990's, those "reel to reel" tapes (and associated tape drives) were becoming increasing rare as they no longer had the capacity to backup the increasingly large disk drives being used. There was a massive move to "cartridge" style tapes and "robot" style tape silos. And while I am no longer up to date with he stuff, I understand the technology is continuing to evolve (or tending to get replaced by cloud based storage).

260:

Going back to the original topic, a friend claims that someone has proposed a "Dune Experience" ...

... a warehouse with a pile of sand containing a couple of earthworms.

There's a photo meme going around to this effect, of a pile of sand in a warehouse.

Ah, Google finds it on Twitter now. Picture alone here, not embedded because it's big and the html scaling commands aren't getting parsed.

261:

would you like to guess how many entries of dates include howlers such as 31-SEP-2018?

That's a perfectly valid date order outside the USA.

It's not in ISO order so it's not trivially sortable but it's absolutely no worse than, say, SEP-31-2018.

262:

I think there might be a larger problem you're missing:
"30 days has September,
April, June, and November..."

263:

It helps a lot if the text is in the language preferred for research publication across the whole planet. Currently English or American, previous Latin or Greek: all remain readable. Also if translations from sample works in that language are everywhere.

To be more time-proof, a repository could include sample translations from its language of choice on non-digital media. They could engrave them on the foundation stones of the building housing the repository.

More seriously, a digital repository is never likely to work when read by archeologists, not for any kind of storage with useful density. Such a repository is only supposed to work while its host institution continues. Translation aids for the languages (and scripts) of choice can go inside the repository.

264:

You may think that you can correct "Wahsington" to "Washington" but then you discover that wellactually the former is a town in Durango and now what do you do?

There's a town in California named Eureka - and another one named Yreka. What happens when some dolt sends the system a package for Urika, and how should we plan for it?

(BTW, speaking of California, in the San Francisco Bay Area there's a neighborhood called Burbank, about two miles from where the San Jose WorldCon happened. It is not the same Burbank that's in Los Angeles. How does one know the difference? Context, hopefully.)

265:

In Japan, there're apparently two ski centres, named 'Hakuba' and 'Shirouma'. The fun thing is that they are both written '白馬', meaning 'white horse'. One of them is read with on yomi and the other with kun yomi, basically with either 'Chinese' or 'Japanese' pronunciation.

This of course creates occasional problems.

266:

Yeahbut...one can sequence old DNA but not recover enough of the detail to clone the organism (IIUC). Very lossy.

A while back, I met a researcher who was trying to do spectroscopy on freshly-harvested DNA. Apparently it's chemically extremely fragile when taken out of a cell and degrades if you look at it harshly. The housing for the sample to get it into the spectrograph (analogous to the slide in microscopy) had to be made of gold to slow down the degradation.

I'm now imagining a repository as a zoo of critters with the work encoded in their DNA...aaaand then they reproduce and all the data gets jumbled up together. Not unlike the output of an IA.

267:

If you encounter a name field containing only the single word Pigeon, it isn't an error, it's me.

You don't go far enough.

Back when Thatcher's government was bringing in the odious Poll Tax, an acquaintance of mine -- today he'd be termed a white-hat hacker -- took exception to it and changed his name by deed poll to address the matter.

Due to a peculiarity of English law, a Magistrate's Court summons for non-payment of the poll tax had to be addressed to the person concerned using their full legal name.

After filing his deed poll, his name was mathew.

Note: no surname/first name, just "mathew". Not "Mathew". Nor "Matthew" (the normal spelling). Not "mathew M. mathew" (database demanded a middle initial or middle name in the field).

He got summonsed on multiple occasions and had it chucked out of court every time.

Basically he found a name that choked all the input validators.

These days we are wise to falsehoods programmers believe about names, or at least wise enough to have no excuse. But this was back in the 1980s and nobody liked the poll tax much (including the developers tasked with writing the software to issue the writs).

268:

Dates in Excel are just a number. If a column is formatted as date the display and entry format depends on the individual users PC settings. I once had a complaint from an endocrinology professor that the clinical trial data I sent him used US dates. I showed him that the dates on my PC were the correct UK format and how to use the international' settings to his chosen format. And date entry can use either- or / as a separator. My problem with Excel dates was that some people enter them as text.

269:

Just need a warehouse filled with sand, an arc light for the sun and a large supply of DMT. People will see sandworms soon enough.

270:

Among my various hats is data custodian for a highly respected research group in Norway.

In addition to all of the problems noted above, there's one no-one noted - in much of Europe, it is common to denote decimals with a comma, not a dot ("decimal comma"). So the value one-half is written as "0,5". If thousand separators are used, those use a point. So the value "one million and one half" is written 1.000.000,5

Excel and the like will handle this kind of thing based only on the host computer's localisation. So good luck if you happen to prefer the normal way of doing things, because suddenly Excel sheets will interpret those fields as strings, not numerics. (In fact, good luck if you use Excel at all: if you're not doing accountancy, you bloody well shouldn't, says I. But a lowly no-longer-a-researcher like myself doesn't get to enforce standards on people).

Plus, of course, people have discovered the wonder of CSV for exchanging tables (it's, well, better than .mat files. Shudder.). Guess how well that handles decimal commas?

Then, of course, you wind up with collaborations between researchers. And you get data files that randomly mix decimal commas and decimal points and, occasionally, thousand separators too.

Fortunately, it's a relatively rare phenomenon, because if you're using any tool other than Excel, it rapidly becomes obvious that the extra logic to handle decimal-comma-numerics and convert them to an actual numeric type is just not worth the faff, even if you prefer to use your own local sstandard. But it's not sufficiently rare that it can be ignored - everything needs to be checked and cleaned.

The other problem, which continues to vex me every few weeks, is that all too often, one encounters the more fundamental problem that one can't even find the relevant data - I get to answer all of the requests for "we'd like to see the data for paper 'X', please", and since the group has published a lot of high impact papers over the years, many of these requests are for data from long ago (I've had at least one request for data generated while I was still at primary school).

While I have archival access to the complete network spaces of long-past users, it is often a challenge to even find where the data files are, never mind what format they are stored in, or identifying the relevant experimental sessions - while researchers are trained in many skills, data management is not, and never has been, amongst them.

While I generally don't include these sort of details in the data responses, a few reasons for incomplete or empty responses are below

  • Here is all the data, and a copy of the program you will need to interpret them. You will need a virtual machine running Windows 3.11 or earlier to install it.
  • That data appears to have been lost in the great data-corruption disaster of 2015, sorry
  • I'm pretty sure that the data archive is complete. I know the paper referenced cell 26, but the data doesn't. It might be a typo. Maybe it was cell 16 instead?
  • We can find no data associated with subject 'X', and there is no evidence it ever existed. The name may be a typo.
  • As far as we can tell, the reference to "male subject X" is an error in the paper. Our best estimate is that that data came from "female subject Y" instead.
  • The lab-books for that experiment were last seen before we moved out of the bomb shelter in 1998, and are most likely still in the sub-basement there. I do not have the relevant safety qualifications to continue the search.
271:

here in the USA the tricks available are to leverage the "zipcode" (AKA postal code) and back before mobile phones (and flying cars and moonbases and other technological marvels of the 21 C) the "area code" portion of phone numbers as geo-location-validation

I've lost track (previously memorized in the dawn of time) of how many states have a urban center named: Springfield, Portland, Washington, Lincoln, Jefferson, Isaac, Abraham, Peter, Paul, et al

FUNFACT: most common street designator (AKA street name) is "Second Street" not Main Street or First Street

272:

kid today with their rude slang {G}

"chasing kids off my lawn since I turned 75(tm)"

273:

I heard from someone who stumbled over a cache of old magnetic tapes in a closet of [REDACTED UNIVERSITY] and she wanted to find out what was on 'em... contacted a high school friend who went career track US Navy and worked at ONI to ask if trainees in the ONI (Office of Naval Intelligence) needed something challenging

the cartons of 60 (70?) tapes was thusly dropshipped alongside a bottle of very good whiskey and without warning left upon their desks along with a note mentioning the team would be awarded the bottle upon completion of analysis... the ONI officer's intent was not fermenting silliness of competition but encouraging cooperation as a team building exercise...

took 'em nineteen days to find the necessary devices, slowly feed thru neglected/misstored tape, extract bits 'n bytes, ans then tear out their hair puzzling out whatever-it-was

...and it turned out to be student class rosters at [REDACTED] which had gone missing for more than a decade

274:

remind me... how many days hath September?

275:

Doesn't matter.

Remember, the data entry format is not responsible for bounds checking -- those are different levels of input sanitization!

276:

It seems there are a lot of people for whom the name of a person is basically set in stone when first given and it cannot be changed later, especially not by the person in question.

Small data point here. My father had only a first and last name. Ditto his brothers and father. In basic training (WWII 1943) his drill instructor kept demanding he tell everyone his MIDDLE name. And kept accusing my father of having one and not wanting to give it out. So my father got extra duty (latrine cleaning and such) for the entire basic training. 2 to 3 months. As soon as he was done with basic he went to a local judge and got his third name bit added. TO THE FRONT. We never did think to ask him why he added to the front.

But he was known by his now middle name for the rest of his life.

277:

While DMT would work better and probably be safer... It seems like a missed opportunity for "Spice" https://www.dea.gov/factsheets/spice-k2-synthetic-marijuana

278:

There was a massive move to "cartridge" style tapes and "robot" style tape silos. And while I am no longer up to date with he stuff, I understand the technology is continuing to evolve (or tending to get replaced by cloud based storage).

There were multiple robots with various cartridge formats starting in the 70s.

LTO came out in 2000 and I think the entire planet has mostly moved to that format. I had a client using LTO-3 and later LTO-5 till we went to onsite dup with a cloud backup. In raw capacity LTO-3 was 400GB and LTO-5 1500GB. Currently it is up to LTO-9 at 18000GB. And the drives are designed to try and compress data on top of this capacity. The physics of the media is a bit of a boggle to my mind.

These cartridges are about 10cmX10cmX2cm.

You can get single drives or auto loaders. And I'm sure there are some robots based around the format.

279:

NONE of us have the same name on birth certificate and passport.

That can be an irritation.

Mismatch your names on your passport or other ID and an airline ticket in the US some time. You'd better allow an extra hour or few at each end to be able to explain why. And if flying internationally, just go home and try again.

280:

That's a perfectly valid date order outside the USA.

Also inside.

As a one time deep dive programmer, I HATED dates.

Monthly things that start on the 31st. Annual things that start on Feb 29. Ugh.

281:

We also have a number of similarly named individuals doing that, so you get Smith's Creek, Smyth's Creek, Smythe's Creek and Schitt's Creek all in the same area.

In the US we can have up to 50 official duplicates, plus additional areas with historical names.

And there are a few airports near cities with duplicate names so a few times per year someone flies to the wrong side of the country and gets upset that the airline DID THIS TO THEM.

When I lived in Lexington, KY I was within an hour's drive of Paris and Versailles.

282:

"good luck if you use Excel at all: if you're not doing accountancy, you bloody well shouldn't, says I"

IMHO if you're doing accountancy on my money, you shouldn't be using Excel either. You should be using commit/rollback operations on a proper database structured in one of those normal forms devised by Edgar Codd specifically to protect data integrity.

Excel is the Birmingham screwdriver of IT.

283:

Anyone her know about the current debate about naming newborns in Japan? Apparently there are cultural rules. And for a while now some new parents aren't following them. And as the kids grow up not all places that require a written name are going along with what is on the birth records.

eh, i vaguely remember hearing about these names, sounds like there are limits on the kanji permitted but not on their pronunciation, so some people have been irresponsibly creative and the government have decided to call time on their activities

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/unusual-names-can-complicate-life-in-japan-now-parents-are-being-reined-in/articleshow/105739790.cms (nyt version is paywalled)

they have a huge capacity for fuss here at times

284:

»IMHO if you're doing accountancy on my money, you shouldn't be using Excel either. You should be using commit/rollback operations on a proper database structured in one of those normal forms devised by Edgar Codd specifically to protect data integrity.«

Those are not important parts of accountancy, those are mere implementation details.

The important part is the "double-entry-keeping" method, invented in Venice 700 years ago.

As inventions go, it is pretty damn important, enabling amongst other things inter-generational debt and practically eliminating trivial embezzling of money.

285:

anonemouse @ 262:

I think there might be a larger problem you're missing:
"30 days has September,
April, June, and November..."

Oooo! I just had a thought ... leap year as a movable feast. After 29 Feb 2024 you have 32 Mar 2028 ... 31 Apr 2032 ... until it rolls around to 29 Mar again ...

Use the same formula for calculating leap years, just move the additional day around 🙃

286:

I have a much simpler answer, the one from my youth: "Ø". (Oh, good, the cut and paste worked.) That's a slash through it, what line printers always used for zero.

287:

Rolls eyes.
My signature is, in fact, actually readable, as opposed to many people. Those... how can you prove you signed it, when all there is to see is what looks like a seismograph trace with no earthquake?

288:

When I worked for the Scummy Mortgage Co (a Fortune 500 company), I went to my boss, the VP of DP one day, and showed him what the guy they'd fired had done for an "algorithm" for leap year: if it's 78 or 80 or 84 or 88 or 92, it's a leap year. No, I'm not making this up, nor the response: if it ain't broke, don't fix it. When it breaks, we'll fix it.

In a mortgage co, with most being the usual 30 year mortgages.

289:

I have a friend who, I understand, bragged in the late 80's that he had 700 fonts. Another friend's response was that he needed another 300, so he could be the man of a 1000 fonts.

Have another friend, and we were in an APA together for a bunch of years. It is my opinion that 60% of all fonts look almost identical to the commonly used ones, and the rest were used once, and NO ONE ever wanted to read anything in those fonts ever again.

290:

Check computer labs/machine rooms. Look in cabinets, or on shelves under desks. We had one drive, bought in 1990, that I understand was still workable... that is, at least until the disaster of 2018, I think it was. (Machine room. Steam pipe blowout.).

291:

Jay - the way some people refer to me as whitroth. It's my username/email account, and not a "real" name, completely artificial. I was the only one from '94, when my late wife and I got our first non-work 'Net account, until '16, I think, when some teenaged girl used it (but hers wound up with a number after it.) If you wonder why, my website's https://mwr.5-cent.us

292:

"The important part is the "double-entry-keeping" method, invented in Venice 700 years ago."

True. But how do you guarantee that both entries are consistently made? In a database transaction you do it by wrapping them in START TRANSACTION; and COMMIT;(or ROLLBACK;) statements. Like double-entry, it's a simple idea, but someone had to think of it.

I'd say that the concept of atomic, consistent, isolated, durable all-or-nothing transactions, in accountancy and elsewhere, is more than a mere implementation detail.

293:

Note that there is at least one Springfield in every single US state.

294:

How odd. My father went in (drafted?) in 1942, and his dogtag read [first name] NMI [last name]. The NMI, of course, was "No Middle Initial".

295:

For those not in the US, I'll note that the last of the towns he mentioned are (mis)pronounced "ver-sales".

296:

There is a SF short story called "MS Fnd in a Lbry" about multiple generations of data compression used to store data on denser and denser substrates. It does not end well.

297:

That can be an irritation. Mismatch your names on your passport or other ID and an airline ticket in the US some time.

Why? All of us use the names on our passports and I'm fairly sure my youngest doesn't even remember the name on her birth certificate. I can't remember the last time I even used my birth certificate for anything official. Nobody would ever ask me for it.

The most excitement I've had with US Immigration was the officer at MSP who thought I was Irish (having seen the word "Ireland" on the photo page) and got worked up about the glossy cover to that page.

Sorry, that's number two. The scariest was the JFK immigration officer who was convinced that I had overstayed my last entry permit and was illegally in the USA. He eventually accepted that, given I was standing in Immigration among lots of other people arriving on the same flight, carrying the stub of my boarding pass and a paper ticket (remember them?) that I probably hadn't been hiding out in Queens for the last four months.

(Scariest overall was, back in the 1970s, being stopped by the KGB in departures at Leningrad Airport for them to find Russian army movement orders in our bags.)

298:

Monthly things that start on the 31st. Annual things that start on Feb 29. Ugh.

There's UK case law on this.

One month from 31st March is 30th April. One year from Feb 29 is Feb 28.

Move the correct number of months or years forward or back. Then, if the resulting month doesn't have a day with that number, go to the last day of the month.

299:

Mismatch your names on your passport or other ID and an airline ticket in the US some time

Name mangling does that admirably. My ex is a "Thi something something Le", combining the 'first name' used by approximately half the women in Vietnam with the most common last name in that country. Obviously such women are known by one of their 'middle names', with no great redgularity as to which. Her and her four sisters have between them five 'first names' so, for example, the older two at 'Thi A B Le' and 'Thi B A Le' because they're twins and that just makes sense.

Australia has a very formal naming system. For each government department or computer system. There's no rule says they have to use the same naming system, so they don't.

Thus my ex at one stage had a NSW driving license with the name "Some Thing Le", an Australian passport in the name "Thi Some Thing Le", a Medicare card in the name "Le, T Some T" and so on. No two alike!

Her solution was to take all the documents when she needed any of them. From birth certificate right down to school photo ID card. Pile them on the counter and let the PTB work out what to do.

She got out of Australia then into Vietname very easily, and equally easily out of Vietnam into Laos and back easily, then out of Vietnam and back.... ah, yeah, so "into Australia" took several hours. She's a citizen, she used the citizen "speed aisle" and she didn't get drug searched, just quizzed about her name and left to think about her choice of name/parents while people fussed about how to process her entry.

300:

The scariest was the JFK immigration officer who was convinced that I had overstayed my last entry permit and was illegally in the USA. He eventually accepted that, given I was standing in Immigration among lots of other people arriving on the same flight, carrying the stub of my boarding pass and a paper ticket (remember them?) that I probably hadn't been hiding out in Queens for the last four months.

I had that experience in Toronto once! Back in the days of paper/cardboard entry permits, at a point when the airport was a building site so everything was temporary, which I guess is where the confusion happened -- we surrendered our cards when leaving after a trip, then got hauled aside when we returned a couple of years later.

In Canada there was no shouting, just forty minutes in the seating area of a waiting room while they confirmed that no, we couldn't have magically overstayed our permission.

301:

Re: ' ... de facto "house style" in that anything the institution can accept for publication/archival must stick within limits little different ... As long as the data is there, and people can read it, the researchers en l'an 2800 can fettle up their own methods of getting it into whatever database package happens to be flavour du jour at the time ...'

Sorta like Latin but for 'publishing' code? Latin was the preferred language for official/serious publications/communications until at least Galileo's time. Didn't stop regional languages from developing and made it much easier for people from different countries/languages to communicate. (Pretty sure there are commenters here who could probably give a semester's worth of lectures/write a few books on this.)

About maintaining libraries ...

Reading that published scientific articles are being allowed to be lost forever makes me ask: Haven't these people ever heard of the Library of Alexandria (one of the seven wonders of the ancient world) which when destroyed resulted in a huge setback (hundreds to a thousand years' worth) in ancient as well as then-contemporary knowledge.

How ticked off would these publishers/institutions be if the reason for the loss of these papers was a cyber/unfriendly attack? Would they take more care in protecting these articles?

I am truly, royally ticked off ... the indifference to loss of knowledge, total idiocy!

Haven't read the rest of the comments yet (could take a while) so apologies if this has already been mentioned.

302:

My family at the time -- my sister and I, our mother, our step-father and his two children -- checked into a motel once and confused the management by having three surnames between us.

303:

Not helped by having two dark haired adults, two dark haired children and two blondes.

304:

We have Gove at one end of the country and Grove at the other. Then there are the problems caused by laziness. Our service is in South Australia and we have a community called Nyapari. There's a community in the Northern Territory called Nyrippi -- both of the these communities are serviced by the same hospital. We get a LOT of things that are supposed to go to Nyrippi because doctors type in the first two letters and go "It must be that one".

305:

On a probably trivial level, in the USA the usual English-speaking name convention is GivenName [optional other given names] Patronymic.

But a ton of USAians are of the Hispanic persuasion, where it's GivenName [optional other given names] Patronymic Matronymic. Of course, given patriarchy, the patronym has dominance so Maria Dolores Garcia Gomez would give her one-last-name as Garcia. Which really confuses a lot of Anglophone USAian officials.

306:

Those... how can you prove you signed it, when all there is to see is what looks like a seismograph trace with no earthquake?

When it is an exact match to all my other IDs.

307:

How odd. My father went in (drafted?) in 1942, and his dogtag read [first name] NMI [last name]. The NMI, of course, was "No Middle Initial".

You father didn't have a jerk for a DI. And in those days I'm better there was a lot of local windage for exactly how forms got filled out.

308:

Why? All of us use the names on our passports and I'm fairly sure my youngest doesn't even remember the name on her birth certificate.

Spelling or transcription errors.

My wife worked for a major US airline for years and we did a LOT of travel. We got to see a lot of interesting discussions at ticket counters and gates. With a side order of "please step over here" at TSA.

Lots of South American countries have laws about citizens taking money out of the country and bringing high in country taxed items in. And some with dual passports would try and play the games of one passport in one direction and the other in the other direction. When she was doing international phone calls people would call up and ask how to get out of "home" with their money or through "home" customs with their stuff. And she got to politely tell them "not my problem".

309:

My grandmother had some difficulty getting out of Hungary in the 80s. She was a Canadian citizen with a British passport and a Hungarian last name. The Hungarian officials just could not wrap their heads around it.

My last name is Hungarian and somehow manages to confuse a lot of people trying to pronounce it. Back in the days of word processor mail I used to get government correspondence to various horribly misspelled versions of my last name, presumably because whoever was typing it ran into a couple of consonants, panicked and just threw a bunch more in rather than simply transcribe the 9 letters in order.

310:

My birth sirname is shared with a town in England. It's very bloody English indeed. All three common spellings of it. Which get applied at random by many native English speakers. It's not unusually long, and doesn't do any of the more fun things the English do with names (no "ough pronounced ch" or anything). But it does lead to people, including officials, utterly failing the "type what you see on the card" test.

Viz, you don't have to have a "foreign" name for the English to have trouble.

Sincerely, Bob Lundon. Or Londan. Landoun? Something like that.

311:

A Shaun Micallef character used the term "tricksy" a lot but I can't find a relevant video.

Anyway, using aboriginal names for places is a very dirty tricksy thing to do to naive (native?) English speakers.

On a couple of Oz blogs I've been signing myself "Moz of Yarramulla" for a few years because it drives a certain sort of misbegotten pedant completely insane (some search engines autocorrect it). Yaralumla is some important government site, Yarramulla is a shed in the bush in Queensland. But they're both real places, and given the choice I'd visit the latter over the former any day. I kind of want to visit Yarramulla just so I can say I've been there :)

https://winsart.com/prints/sanctuary/ random painting of a site near Yarramulla Ranger Station in Undara National Park, Queensland is one of the few matches...

312:

I had that experience in Toronto once! Back in the days of paper/cardboard entry permits, at a point when the airport was a building site so everything was temporary, which I guess is where the confusion happened

Point of interest: it's still a building site. Last time I went through I had to ask for directions, because scaffolding was covering the signs and no one had thought to post temporary signs…

313:

Most airports are always building sites, but that one time International Departures at Toronto was particularly bad (temporary desks in front of plastic sheeting to wall off the concrete dust and jackhammers) ...

314:

About maintaining libraries ...

Never heard of labs referred t as paper mills? I’ve seen it in action. Sturgeon’s Law definitely applies to science and every other Publish Or Perish field. Probably it applied to the Library of Alexandria too, to be honest about it. So does the Suck Fairy. And if not burning the Library meant that humanity created social media in 1300 and avoided the Little Ice through Anthropogenic Climate Change, that’s better than now because…?

I’m sorry to be nasty about this, but I’m currently downsizing the belongings of someone who never threw anything out, while that person slowly dies in a nursing facility. I’m plagued equally by those who want me to hire a service to throw everything in the landfill, under the idea that the house is worth more money than the contents, and those who don’t want me to throw anything out, because it might be useful someday. And I’m getting an entirely unwanted education into how dysfunctional their and my relationship with stuff is.

About the only thing I’ve learned is that I want to have some control over how my junk is discarded, because I have no desire to do unto others what’s been done unto me. That means I’m throwing away my junk too, while I still can.

And so it goes.

315:

we've gotten tangled in the weeds

never mind how the dates are formatted, my examples were of gaffs which have all too oft led to nightmares when calculations were performed (loans, expirations, adulthood verification, etc) and appointments were scheduled for medical treatment (31-SEP-2025 will never happen so the patient died awaiting a phone call where to go)

every app I had any contribution on design of the interface, allowed customization by individuals: which date format, time format, greytone versus color graphics such as pie charts, etc

at most sites I got shot down and most project managers would pull me aside for STFU feedback

what's really funny, about 9 outta 10 managers would call me 2 (or 3 or 5) years later requesting those specifications, as if I had violated My NDA and took 'em offset... because? ...guess what the app was going international or there was a VVV-VIP who was color blind, mobility challenged or simply with old eyes and all my notes (and associated business rules) were now critical to the revised deliverables...

in all cases I pointed out there was supposed to be centralized backups so just request restoration... tee hee... turned out the tapes were unreadable or the fees of the offsite storage vendor were ruinous...

some managers hired me to rewrite those missing chunks and it was nice chunk of change for weekend moonlighting

as far as I can determine no major corporation in the (USA) financial sector has bothered to establish enterprise-wide standards for data validation, interface design, compliance with special needs of disabled, and various other * DUH * things too insignificant to concern the CXOs but keep slamming technical support

BTW: anyone else bought a new laptop recently? any of you finding WIN 11 a step backwards in usability and customizability?... fracking scroll bars are no longer adjustable and never mind the misery of button colorization/contrast

316:

About the only thing I’ve learned is that I want to have some control over how my junk is discarded, because I have no desire to do unto others what’s been done unto me. That means I’m throwing away my junk too, while I still can.

The Swedish term for that is döstädning.

317:

...and 'slashing the seven' also useful

problem being not everyone likes it

318:

FUNFACT: the world was first tripped up by Y2K not in the 1990s but in 1968

yup... those 30Y loans... because back then it could take up to two years to wrap up all the lingering bits 'n pieces if ever a loan went to full maturity rather than being paid off early

...and then again in 1978 for 20Y loans

319:

serious suggestion: contact your nation's version of CIA or ONI or NSA to inquire if they have intel trainees in need of a challenge

you get free expertise and they get a low stress (no nukes hidden in Boston basements ala The Merchant Trade) real world exercise in 'hostile' data retrieval

320:

that one time International Departures at Toronto was particularly bad (temporary desks in front of plastic sheeting to wall off the concrete dust and jackhammers)

My worst construction experience at Pearson was trying to find my way between terminals at 1 AM with no signs and almost no one around, when the corridor I needed was an unmarked passageway that looks like an entrance to the construction site itself. (Some bright spark had posted the "No admittance" sign right at the entrance, apparently meaning "don't go behind the sheeting" rather than "don't go down this corridor".) Fortunately for me another passenger knew the right way to go.

321:

a thousand blessings upon you... during the quarantine I tried to find that story to send to a buddy who needed to explain why disaster recovery planning was necessary and its documentation had to be in a form readable during a crisis...

my friend is now hunting down "17 X Infinity" so she can, in future miseries akin to that 2020-centered SNAFU have it at the ready

from Wikipedia:

"The short story first appeared in the December 1961 issue of The Magazine of Fantasy and Science Fiction.[2] It was anthologized in the collections 17 X Infinity (1963) edited by Groff Conklin and Laughing Space (1982), edited by Isaac and Janet Asimov.[3] It was also published as "Ms Fnd in a Lbry: or, the Day Civilization Collapsed".

322:

but that one time International Departures at Toronto was particularly bad (temporary desks in front of plastic sheeting to wall off the concrete dust and jackhammers)

Sounds like a typical Thursday at LGA. (I understand they are between projects just now and it's a decent place to wander about.)

Our local airport will likely start this for 3 years in a few years. Add a new runway then expand the terminal out onto the existing taxiway for the old runway. Old runway become taxiway. But the main terminal building expands along its entire length.

Currently it is a very nice and easy to deal with mid sized airport. But running out of capacity and in desperate need to replace the long runway so overseas flights can continue.

RDU

323:

Some bright spark had posted the "No admittance" sign right at the entrance, apparently meaning "don't go behind the sheeting" rather than "don't go down this corridor".) Fortunately for me another passenger knew the right way to go.

I ran into this at Miami 5+ years ago.

At the terminal with my gate I was something like gate 41. The terminal is sort of a Y shape. I was starting at the tail. Signs overhead said things like gate 8-44, then 13-44, and so on. At the Y split there was one sign for gates 20-30 and another for gates 31-37 or similar. Where are the rest? I doubled back, looked around a bit then found a map. Apparently they had extended the branch of the Y with the 30s gates but never changed that sign at the "fork".

I was going to the gate early so I still made the flight.

My wife had just taken over the digital airport signage product and so I took some pictures and sent them to her. Big sigh. She only had control over TV signage from the airline, not hard signage. And if you ever wonder why the TV displays next to each other in an airport at times display different and maybe conflicting information? Well about 1/2 of those TVs are controlled by the airport and 1/2 by the airlines. Go figure.

324:

Many modern ideas about the Library of Alexandria come from Carl Sagan who had not learned anything about the history of science since his undergrad days. Probably it suffered a series of disasters, a long trend of defunding and milking for money ("hello scholars! welcome my drinking buddy, your new boss!"), and was not as important as the general decline in the ability and willingness of people in the Roman world to pay to have secular books copied. A good series of blog posts are here https://kiwihellenist.blogspot.com/2022/11/alexandria.html

325:

Post-300, but I thought it might interest some here:

https://www.pulpmags.org/index.htm

The Pulp Magazines Project is an open-access archive and digital research initiative for the study and preservation of one of the twentieth century's most influential print culture forms: the all-fiction pulpwood magazine. The Project also provides information and resources on publishing history, multiple search and discovery platforms, and an expanding library of high-quality, cover-to-cover digital facsimiles.

326:

Kardashev @ 305:

On a probably trivial level, in the USA the usual English-speaking name convention is GivenName [optional other given names] Patronymic.

But a ton of USAians are of the Hispanic persuasion, where it's GivenName [optional other given names] Patronymic Matronymic. Of course, given patriarchy, the patronym has dominance so Maria Dolores Garcia Gomez would give her one-last-name as Garcia. Which really confuses a lot of Anglophone USAian officials.

All you gotta' do is put a hyphen between Garcia & Gomez and your last name becomes Garcia-Gomez. I don't think I ever encountered a system that didn't handle hyphenated last names.1

Personally, all of my encounters with "official" names required me to give [LASTNAME] [FIRSTNAME] [MIDDLEINITIAL] ... and by the time I came along THEY had figured out to put [NMI] in that field when there was no middle name.

A couple of oddities I've encountered in my lifetime - a pair of twin boys named "John James Smith" and "James John Smith" and a kid who was the FIRST in his family to be born in a hospital. His parents didn't understand the initial certificate of live birth used "Baby Boy" as a placeholder ... so when I knew him he was already in his 30s & still going by his middle name "Boy" ... 🙃

1 The guy who sat behind me in Sophomore year High School English class was Tremont Aloysius Yates-Smith THE THIRD, and you know damn well the schools DID NOT DARE fuck up HIS last name in school records ...

327:

Heteromeles @ 314:

I’m sorry to be nasty about this, but I’m currently downsizing the belongings of someone who never threw anything out, while that person slowly dies in a nursing facility. I’m plagued equally by those who want me to hire a service to throw everything in the landfill, under the idea that the house is worth more money than the contents, and those who don’t want me to throw anything out, because it might be useful someday. And I’m getting an entirely unwanted education into how dysfunctional their and my relationship with stuff is.

I expect most people are like me, a lifetime accumulation of some things that have obvious value and a lot of things that can only be described as Why in the hell would you want to keep THAT? ... all I can say is I inherited a dominant pack-rat gene.

Plus paranoia so that NOTHING that comes here in the mail with my real name & address printed on it can be discarded into the recycling without going through the shredder.

Shredding that shit is tedious (not to mention the recycling system around here DOES NOT want to deal with shredded paper).

Best that can be said about the situation is that someday I'll be dead and then it will be someone else's problem.

328:

Howard NYC @ 315:

we've gotten tangled in the weeds

never mind how the dates are formatted, my examples were of gaffs which have all too oft led to nightmares when calculations were performed (loans, expirations, adulthood verification, etc) and appointments were scheduled for medical treatment (31-SEP-2025 will never happen so the patient died awaiting a phone call where to go)

every app I had any contribution on design of the interface, allowed customization by individuals: which date format, time format, greytone versus color graphics such as pie charts, etc

About the only place I ever have to give a date (Date of Birth) to any more is using the automated refill system at the VA and they are very explicit guiding you through how to enter it ...

"four digit year, two digit month and two digit day. FOR EXAMPLE, IF you were born January First Nineteen-Sixty you would enter One, Nine, Six, Zero, Zero, One, Zero, One followed by the pound sign ..."

[...]

BTW: anyone else bought a new laptop recently? any of you finding WIN 11 a step backwards in usability and customizability?... fracking scroll bars are no longer adjustable and never mind the misery of button colorization/contrast

I kind of want a new laptop because my existing laptop screen is too small, but I'm still pissed off at Windoze10 and damn sure am resisting Windoze'leven. And anyway no NEW laptop is going to allow me to install PhotoShop CS6 (my PhotoShop system still runs Windows7).

I might think about resurrecting my OLD laptop that did have a 17" diagonal screen, Windows 7 & Photoshop CS5 ... I don't really do any image processing on the laptop anyway, but it's nice to be able to review my images while I'm traveling and the larger screen helps with that.

329:

My favourite batshit database-breaking name has got to be Richard Grosvenor Plunkett-Ernle-Erle-Drax. Who is a Tory MP and a complete and utter arsewipe, but you can torture-test your input validation routine for names using that surname alone! (It was granted to his family by King George V to his grandpa, Sir Reginald Aylmer Ranfurly Plunkett-Ernle-Erle-Drax, younger son of the 17th Baron of Dunsany and younger brother of the famous author Lord Dunsany.)

330:

On the subject of "wonky" experiences ... I've found a new way to freak out my little dog.

The "exhaust" fan built into the underside of the microwave (mounted above the stove) doesn't really do a very good job.

I've lately been trying my hand at doing roasts in the oven and for some reason whenever I open the oven to check the temperature of the meat it sets off one of the smoke alarms (at the other end of the house).

331:

Good idea - and maybe they did that (as one government organisation working with another). But I left that organisation in 1980's and have no idea how they solved that problem.

Certainly re-processing 'zillions' of punched cards looking for wood worm holes (aka "borer" in NZ) wasn't considered practical when that problem was discovered - retrospectively as - far as I am aware before I left. I suspect the cards were dumped/pulped after being originally copied to tape to reclaim the storage space occupied by the large quantities of punched card storage boxes.

332:
All you gotta' do is put a hyphen between Garcia & Gomez and your last name becomes Garcia-Gomez

Except for the minor point that that's not her name, right Seán?

333:

That's a lovely painting. Do you actually have a connection to Yarramulla or do you just like doing people's heads in? ;-)

334:

Ahh yes, the character Female in Cat People -- love the Malcolm McDowell version, haven't seen the original

335:

Three of the most common and important things we keep on computer systems are names, addresses and date/times. And what are some of the most difficult to handle things? Yes...

I have a colleague originally from Morocco who explained that it is common for an address to get seriously convoluted as time passes. Roads get renamed or kinda disappear or extended, and new buildings get stuffed in between old ones. You can end up with addresses akin to “3rd building past number 372 on el thingy avenue, behind the shops of bin-Dibbler, upstairs number 19” . A student intern from Turkey claimed it could be even more complex there. It’s bad enough in UK - one of our addresses was ‘house name’ ‘street name’ ‘village name’ county postcode. When the street is 5+ miles long it can get annoying to find the right house.

A colleague in California had a double first name with no hyphen; loads of systems fail that test, too many assume a space means ‘end’. She got regularly annoyed by it.

And as date/time, well I have colleagues that have spent pretty much their entire careers trying to sort them out.

We could do with name and date handling that works like the mapping website https://what3words.com/

336:

Re: 'Sturgeon’s Law'

Yeah, except it sometimes takes generations to figure out what's crap and what isn't. Also - yeah, I've heard of paper-mill publishing and am also aware that over tens of thousands of academic articles have been pulled/retracted.

My sister and I had to sort through our parents' belongings - not an easy job. I've moved more often than my parents therefore have already had to sort and toss stuff every move. Last time I moved, I mentioned to my progeny that I was editing down. Immediate reaction was: don't throw out any of your books! Also found out that there's some furniture and artwork of interest.

Re: Library of Alexandria -

I think I've read this on more than just Wikipedia: according to Galen, Ptolemy II required that every ship entering the port hand over their 'books' to scribes to be copied for the Library. Guess that Sagan was referring to Hipparchus, "the father of astronomy". The only topic areas I've heard specific reference to as lost in the destruction of the Library were math and Greek plays. (Only 18 out of 92 Euripides plays survived, considerably more than the number of plays by Aeschylus or Sophocles. Imagine if we lost Shakespeare!)

337:

All you gotta' do is put a hyphen between Garcia & Gomez and your last name becomes Garcia-Gomez. I don't think I ever encountered a system that didn't handle hyphenated last names.

I knew someone who went to the high school I ended my career at. When I found her picture on the wall in the "Class of 19xx", her name was wrong. I asked her, and apparently that's what she was called all through school because the computer system (and the staff) couldn't handle her actual last name because it was too long for the last name field (and 'hard to say').

So instead of Vinayagamurthy, they changed her last name to Vina — including on her diploma.

That wouldn't happen nowadays in the school system. Although some First Nations people have trouble because their names include digits and accents that government computer systems (and bureaucrats) don't recognize.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/indigenous-names-vital-stats-1.6426239

Which is a long-winded way of saying that forcing someone to change their name to fit the database is a really bad solution.

338:

Reading that published scientific articles are being allowed to be lost forever makes me ask: Haven't these people ever heard of the Library of Alexandria

And this popped up Friday.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/03/study-finds-that-we-could-lose-science-if-publishers-go-bankrupt/

339:

or do you just like doing people's heads in

By now I have no idea. It's entirely possible that 15 years ago I met someone who worked or had worked there and the name stuck, but it's equally possible that I randomly heard it somewhere or indeed misspelled a search and found it.

I'm taking the question on notice as rhetorical :)

340:

I mentioned to my progeny that I was editing down

Anyone after "heir and spare" is superfluous once they reach adulthood?

341:

Re: '... popped up'

Thanks! I read the article and looked up the referenced author, Martin Eve - very interesting combination of arts, science, tech and accessibility.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Paul_Eve#External_links

Did a double take when I read he was expert on David Mitchell (author/TV writer/screenwriter). The only David Mitchell I was aware of is a comedian/actor/writer and frequent guest panelist on a bunch of BBC comedy panel shows (QI - Quite Interesting, Would I Lie To You, etc.) Good example of the importance of a middle name/initial*.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Mitchell_(comedian)

*Okay, there are a bunch of fairly common European surnames but I'm guessing that this is nothing in comparison with some Asian (esp. Chinese and Korean) surnames. Wonder how they keep track of who's who - they must have come up with some sort of system.

Moz @ 340:

re: 'heir & spare'

I think that distinction only matters for royalty. Biggest surprise was that there was any interest in my stuff: different generations, different tastes.

342:

Yes, lots of people who are reliable on natural science or engineering repeat myths about the ancient world and the history of science from Carl Sagan or 19th century anti-Catholic pamphlets. They often got them via an intermediary who was just as ignorant about those topics. There is a lesson in that: someone can be skeptical and scientific in one area, but repeat whatever someone told them to repeat about another topic.

343:

OTOH, we have an actual letter of Galen listing things which were lost in a specific library fire at Rome in 192 CE. But as long as the Roman empire was rich, papyrus was plentiful, and secular learning was fashionable, no one disaster could do too much damage. The Library of Alexandria gets used as a standin for the long anonymous processes that reduced the resources available for copying Greek learning. https://www.jstor.org/stable/41724875?mag=library-fires-have-always-been-tragedies-just-ask-galen

344:

I'd gently suggest that our problem as a civilization isn't just that we're using paper, but that we're committing our records to electronic media. And I think most of us are justifiably cynical about how long those will last. We moved fast, and one of the things we seem to have broken is our intellectual links to the deep future of humanity. Does this matter, or not? Any interest in building it back better?

345:

And I think most of us are justifiably cynical about how long those will last.

i think someone here mentioned microsoft's project silica, which sounds promising, though there may be room for cynicism about how long our ability to read examples of it will last

it could end up forever tantalizingly out of reach, like the 100 million or whatever in bitcoin that guy forgot the password to

346:

'You can end up with addresses akin to “3rd building past number 372 on el thingy avenue, behind the shops of bin-Dibbler, upstairs number 19”.'

In Japan, roads mostly don't have names (why would you name an empty space?) so addressing is by city, district, block number, building number, ... and those numbers may not be assigned consecutively. To find an address, consult the collective cultural memory, i.e. go to the nearest police box (there are many) and ask.

347:

not enough cow bells {G}

for sure, lacks suffixes sufficient to break the code

"Jr" is so pedestrian as to be shrugged off

I've had situation where people with PhD insisted their fracking mailing address include that suffix

...and prefix of "Dr." with mandatory period... she made a concession in not insisting upon "Doctor" spelled out

and anticipating everyone's next snarky inquiry, why yes, she was a graduate of Yale, with her doc in Foreign Affairs

her insistence was based upon others of equal social stature who would be miffed if ever any of [REDACTED BANK]'s statements failed to show 'minimal' respect

348:

there's grease accumulated on the blade surfaces from vaporized fat throwing off the balance as well heavier working load than designers planned for

it is one of those moments when it is clear engineers were never expecting their microwave to be used to cook food that would reach vaporization threshold

349:

Scotland, Isle of Skye. On one of the townships on the B883 (just off the A87 at the North end of Glen Varigill) there is the postal address "Quarter of Five", $Township. This is because the croft was split between 4 male siblings.

350:

hmmm... not inflicting Romeo and Juliet on a room filled with hormonal ticking bombs seems now in retrospect a good idea...

high school was bad enough without inflicting tales of interclan gang wars and teenage mass suicides

351:

I'd gently suggest that our problem as a civilization isn't just that we're using paper, but that we're committing our records to electronic media. And I think most of us are justifiably cynical about how long those will last. We moved fast, and one of the things we seem to have broken is our intellectual links to the deep future of humanity

One of the things examined in Benford's Deep Time (which, if you haven't read, I recommend).

One of the lessons I learned from reading it years ago is that engineers, especially electronics engineers, apparently have no concept of time. Or maybe it's scale that they struggle with — both the amount of information we've generated and the amount of change that can happen over long periods of time. ("Long" apparently being anything longer than their professional career to date.)

352:

addressing is by city, district, block number, building number, ... and those numbers may not be assigned consecutively

I was under the impression that they were assigned sequentially, but by order of construction rather than location on a road. So ten houses built at the same time may have numbers in sequence as you walk up the road, except of the house in the middle that came later so has a higher number.

I could be totally wrong about this.

353:

palate cleansing...

"The Color of Magic"

https://www.cwtv.com/shows/the-color-of-magic/

354:

not inflicting Romeo and Juliet on a room filled with hormonal ticking bombs seems now in retrospect a good idea

My students were rather bored with Romeo and Juliet until I pointed out to them that all the characters were their age. Their English teacher hadn't mentioned that, and the actors they had seen were all adults, so between that and the costumes they'd thought of it as "boring inexplicable adult stuff".

Once they realized that it was a story of teenagers rebelling against their parents it made much more sense to them, and they got more into it.

355:

We moved fast, and one of the things we seem to have broken is our intellectual links to the deep future of humanity. Does this matter, or not? Any interest in building it back better?

Who is "we", Kemo Sabe?

"Deep future of humanity" is something very few people ever cared about, let alone had intellectual links to. Vast majority of people through history were just too busy surviving to think about such matters. Those he had such luxury rarely did, and those few who did usually assumed that things will remain the way they are forever.

The idea that future will be significantly different from the present is only about 200 years old. And while many many people during these 200 years did think about it, almost all of them were concerned with the scale of decades or centuries. Hardly ever millennia, let alone longer.

I daresay this blog has an extremely high concentration of the people with "intellectual links to the deep future of humanity", and it distorts the perception. (I freely admit I am not one of them)

356:

Way off topic: fans of Penric & Desdemona should not miss this interview.

357:

In the mid-90s, I worked for a software company in the UK that specialised in name and address management. We had a product for validating addresses and adding postcodes if missing. About 10% of the code did about 99% of address validation and the other 90% of the code dealt with the 1% of weird exceptions that were complex to manage.

That said, the UK address system is pretty well organised, even with the vagaries of house names, apartments, etc. For probably 90% of addresses in the UK, you can get away with as little as a house number and a postcode, and the mail will find its way to your door (little-known detail: every address in the UK has a unique identifier made up of the postcode and an additional 2-digit code known as the Delivery Point Suffix - this limits the number of delivery points/mailboxes in a postcode to ~80). Many software and cloud service providers out there take the Royal Mail's basic Postcode Address File (PAF) https://www.poweredbypaf.com/ and enhance it with all sorts of other data. A common enhancement is grid references to varying levels of accuracy.

Of course for personal use, Google Maps or one of its competitors does most of this now anyway.

TL:DR, it's exceedingly rare in the UK for a business to be unable to deliver an item to an address, and Royal Mail is very good at it (for all their other faults).

358:

"I could be totally wrong about this."

No, I think you're right. I could have been clearer; what I meant was that they are chronologically but not geographically sequential.

359:

Yesterday I was UTC-5. Today it's UTC-4. I'll spend the rest of the week resetting all of my clocks. I wish they'd just pick one or the other & stick with it.

360:

anonemouse @ 332:

"All you gotta' do is put a hyphen between Garcia & Gomez and your last name becomes Garcia-Gomez"

Except for the minor point that that's not her name, right Seán?

It's closer to it than either Garcia or Gomez alone. How do database administrators in Spanish speaking countries handle double barrel last names?

PS: ... that's Jean to you ... or Juan.

PPS: You have no idea how many different ways I've seen my name mangled, so you're going to have to do better than that 😏

361:

Pixodaros @ 343:

OTOH, we have an actual letter of Galen listing things which were lost in a specific library fire at Rome in 192 CE. But as long as the Roman empire was rich, papyrus was plentiful, and secular learning was fashionable, no one disaster could do too much damage. The Library of Alexandria gets used as a standin for the long anonymous processes that reduced the resources available for copying Greek learning. https://www.jstor.org/stable/41724875?mag=library-fires-have-always-been-tragedies-just-ask-galen

Two thoughts - don't get caught "stealing" articles from "jstor"

My current "bedtime" reading is From Hittite to Homer The Anatolian Background of Ancient Greek Epic

Comparative study based on translations of the cuneiform tablets excavated at Hattusa. Page & a half and "boom boom - out go the lights!" ... more effective than "Ambien" and fewer side effects. 🙃

362:

Howard NYC @ 348:

there's grease accumulated on the blade surfaces from vaporized fat throwing off the balance as well heavier working load than designers planned for

it is one of those moments when it is clear engineers were never expecting their microwave to be used to cook food that would reach vaporization threshold

Could be.

I'm going with the theory the [EXPLETIVE!! DELETED!! "builders"] fucked up the microwave installation (AND the smoke detector installations) just like they fucked up so many other things ... incompetence rather than malice, but I won't rule out MALICIOUS INCOMPETENCE!

Plus the oven hasn't been used enough yet for that much grease to accumulate ...

363:

I don't how it plays out elsewhere

my high school (NY, 1970s) had a streak of suicides and attempts... 4000 students of whom at least a dozen who simply were not in class the next day and teachers mumbled about the family suddenly moving away

as to violence... we had lots of medium range aggression that was more bully-on-nerd which made for sweaty moments for many of us and somehow reading R&J encouraged some knuckleheads in trying to form up a posse

feh on Shakesppppppear

364:

Howard NYC @ 347:

her insistence was based upon others of equal social stature who would be miffed if ever any of [REDACTED BANK]'s statements failed to show 'minimal' respect

A few years back I used to regularly get another person's bank statements (BIG name NYC bank) - we were in the same ZIP code, but lived several blocks apart. My address was 506 Frank and his was 506 Franklin.

I finally figured out the postal service wasn't reading the address & zip code, they were using an Intelligent Mail Barcode printed on the front of the envelope below the Name & Address for sorting ... and the bank had screwed that up.

The bank was printing the Intelligent Mail Barcode for MY address on HIS bank statements.

365:

dang... yet again cold facts getting in the way of one of my whimsical pet notions {G}

366:

That's what I do. So instead of altering clocks, I spend the week following the event altering my time-zone settings on all the forums and things I'm on that handle that gubbins on the server. Feels like you can't bloody win sometimes, but really it's a lot less annoying than having it get dark at tea-time over the winter (though I still sleep indoors).

At least you have yours happening before the spring equinox. Ours doesn't happen until a while after it, by which time it's getting even sillier than it is anyway.

367:

"My students were rather bored with Romeo and Juliet until I pointed out to them that all the characters were their age... Once they realized that it was a story of teenagers rebelling against their parents it made much more sense to them, and they got more into it."

Now that you've exposed the motive I find it odd that I never realised it before... So that's why our teacher kept banging on about that point. It didn't work, even when those of us sat at the back were passing the time swapping anecdotes of parental authoritarian excesses from our own experience.

The effect he obtained was not so much to encourage empathy with the characters, as to further inhibit it. Not only did the things they were doing still count no less as "boring inexplicable adult stuff", they became even more inexplicable because the characters were too bloody young to be thinking of shit like that. The crazy passionate elopement crap was quite definitely only for adults, people a sufficient number of years older than us both to be that heavily into it, and for "it" to be something more than finally managing to get a shag (must be still warm, all else optional). The idea of people our own age finding that much motivation for so drastic an aim was too alien to comprehend, especially when (as the teacher pointed out) the girl probably wouldn't even have proper tits yet.

368:

I used to live at an address called '55 East 54th Street'. Quite regularly I would get mail addressed to 54 East 55th St. On one dreadful occasion the passport office mailed by new document to the opposite address, and refused to replace it until they tracked down the other one. I had done all the forms etc. weeks in advance to be sure it all came in time.

I was finally able to get the new document 2 hours before our flight was to leave for our honeymoon, 1 hour away from the airport. I distinctly feel that the bureaucrat who was making things difficult took some joy in the whole process, but that may have been my cauldron of rage and frustration distorting my vision.

369:

Once they realized that it was a story of teenagers rebelling against their parents it made much more sense to them, and they got more into it.

Not that this would fly, but I can fantasize some (dis)gruntled English teacher would start this section of the course with "Romeo and Juliet is the story of how an 18 year-old boy lured a 13 year-old away from her family, resulting in six deaths, including the perp and his deluded victim. We're going to study how Shakespeare made this plot into one of the more durable pieces of English literature."

370:

I believe there also exists, or did, a variant on that where subsequent deals between the inheritors of the croft, or something of the kind, gave rise to the pair of addresses "One-quarter of number fifteen" and "Three-quarters of number fifteen".

371:

engineers, especially electronics engineers, apparently have no concept of time.

I'm more used to that suggestion coming from management, in the form "we need this right now immediately, do you have no concept of delivery deadlines?". It's not usually the engineers focussing 90% on the deadline and 10% on the functionality, with the latter being expressed as "what's the least we can ship without being sued".

My current employer has become used to the idea that we can often deliver software astonishingly quickly, but only if we know what exactly we're supposed to deliver. Many projects currently languish in our Jira instance while management cogitate, sadly attempting to come up with something more specific than "keep the customer happy". But we typically start with "Sam wants to get a fax when the building catches fire" and have to both expand on that and generalise it into something we can sell to more than just "Sam".

In terms of priorities "the data collected will be available in 1000 years time" isn't on the list.

372:

the other 90% of the code dealt with the 1% of weird exceptions

That's absolutely normal.

I have markers in my error logs one of which is "this code could not be tested and may not be reachable". I get that marker in the logs about once a month. But I am one of those "this returns a status, I will test it and log errors" type programmers. I have been warned by the compiler about unreachable code disturbingly often:

bool ok = Some_Library_Function()
if not ok then log(ERROR, "Some Library Function failed (IMPOSS)")
COMPILER ERROR: code cannot be reached, ok is always true

Oh really. Thanks library writer for supplying a pointless return value.

373:

I think that does stand some chance of being more effective than what we got, though, ie. teacher repeatedly stating that the plot was recycled in "West Side Story" as a pathetically transparent effort to get us to think R&J was cool by relating it to a modern American thing about gangsters an' shit. (So now as well as knowing that there was a thing called "West Side Story", I also know that it pinched the plot of R&J and it was about gangsters an' shit.)

Our English teacher was one of those misguided ushers who tried to be "one of the lads", and failed dismally.

374:

TBH I expected it to be the latter -- I myself have get minor pleasure from doing people's heads in :-)

375:

I have one word for you -- Japan. I read something once which may not be true but what they said was that if houses were numbered in Japan house number 1 in a street would be the oldest. I still have some of the tissue packets they give (or did when I was there) to passersby advertising businesses, with a map to show where they were instead of an address. Although not all of them would give the tissues to gaijin.

376:

...so you write a separate source file, to be compiled to a separate object file, containing

bool somelibraryfire() { return SomeLibraryFunction(); }

and then call that instead, so when it compiles the outer calls it doesn't know where they're ultimately getting the return value from (or whatever other recipe works to stop your compiler thinking it knows the answer before you ask the question), and thus it can't perform that particular check during compilation.

Then when you run the code, you find it does print somelibraryfire() returned false HELP HELP MY ARSE IS ALIGHT, much to your surprise, and now you have some clue as to why some subsequent piece of code occasionally bombed for no apparent reason.

377:

What a fantastic time to announce a proposal for "the world’s tallest ‘glass and a half’ Chocolate Fountain" at a "real-life Willy Wonka-like attraction."

https://pulsetasmania.com.au/news/cadbury-chocolate-experience-would-be-a-tasmanian-tourism-game-changer/

378:

"cadbury-chocolate-experience-would-be-a-tasmanian-tourism-game-changer/"

I must be getting old. I can remember the days many years ago when Cadbury's produced good chocolate.

JHomes

379:

The other thing modern audiences don't usually get that audiences of the time certainly would have, is that suicides go straight to Hell. Really adds a cheerful note to the ending, eh?

380:

Cadbury used to produce chocolate bars in NZ. Then one of the rounds of consolidating production of products meant that we get our bars from Australia (probably Tassie). However AU chocolate is spec'ed to tolerate higher retail temperate than the NZ recipe was, so the taste changed for the (even) worse. Whittakers used to be a smallish NZ producer, now they are a major part of the market.

381:

The free link to the article is from the JSTOR blog!

382:

About 10% of the code did about 99% of address validation and the other 90% of the code dealt with the 1% of weird exceptions that were complex to manage.

well, yes - but that's to be expected.

It was observed in the Sandra & Woo web comic; see the second panel on design:

383:

Heteromeles @ 369:

"Once they realized that it was a story of teenagers rebelling against their parents it made much more sense to them, and they got more into it."

Not that this would fly, but I can fantasize some (dis)gruntled English teacher would start this section of the course with "Romeo and Juliet is the story of how an 18 year-old boy lured a 13 year-old away from her family, resulting in six deaths, including the perp and his deluded victim. We're going to study how Shakespeare made this plot into one of the more durable pieces of English literature."

Was Romeo that old? I've always been under the impression he was 14-16?

384:

"Then one of the rounds of consolidating production of products meant that we get our bars from Australia"

The quality had gone into free fall long before that. I think it started shortly after the Cadbury firm had been bought out.

JHomes

385:

I am quite certain Romeo was 16. Heteromeles' "fantasy" makes Romeo older in order to create a modern day morality tale, since nowadays 18 is the magic number.

386:

The trouble with live tracking of courier deliveries is that I can see exactly how little distance this one is covering. My preferred supplier of organic bulk food is about 10km away, but has stopped letting me pick orders up from the warehouse (and everyone else, but who cares about them). So some peep with a truck picked my stuff up this afternoon and with any luck will drive it to my house tomorrow. DRIVE it. Hopefully not on the convenient bike path that runs ~80% of the way from the warehouse to my place. Bah. Humbug. I am tempted to bike out there and shake my fist at the warehouse just to make a point.

387:

Heteromeles' "fantasy" makes Romeo older in order to create a modern day morality tale

should've just called him "groomeo" to save time

388: 357: every address in the UK has a unique identifier made up of the postcode and an additional 2-digit code known as the Delivery Point Suffix - this limits the number of delivery points/mailboxes in a postcode to ~80)

Actually it's exactly 80: the DPS is a digit from 1 to 4 followed by one of the 20 letters allowed in the inward (second) part of the postcode. (9U and 9Z are also used as indicators of a problem.)

389:

{ USA CENTRIC DIATRIBE YOU CAN JUMP PAST }

https://archive.ph/brZVn

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/opinion/oppression-majority.html

There was this article was written prior to the pandemic, the failed coup, the ever-expanding shitstorm of howling fascism, the ever more obvious efforts at "1850s rollback". (I can recall reading it then, even made a note to myself five years ago when I ran across it to take another look, later on. Forgot about it. There's been distractions.) Just stumbled over a link to it on “pluralistic.net” and re-read it. Here we are, five years later.

I would have expected, I guess, it would be looking in hindsight somewhat paranoid.

quote:

"The defining political fact of our time is not polarization. It’s the inability of even large bipartisan majorities to get what they want on issues like these. Call it the oppression of the supermajority. Ignoring what most of the country wants — as much as demagogy and political divisiveness — is what is making the public so angry."

What has become impossible to deny, is how there's now not just the political right but the “harsh right” (not merely “hard right”) which is as different from you and me, as the “0.01%” (the wealthiest 1% of the wealthiest 1%) are from the “99.99%”. It has a different agenda, a differing vision for the course of society; differing definitions of loyalty and belonging and rights and privileges.

With differing priorities. And how the concept of “citizenship” should be re-defined, which is to say, the wealthier you are, the more important your voice is amongst ruling elite. Whereas the “99.99%” ought be grateful their toilets flush and food isn't yet more expensive. Not just withholding the vote from the 'wrong kinds of people' but as well those 'right kinds' ought to be allocated a heftier vote, as if each of 'em could vote a thousandfold. A millionfold, mayhap. Which is already well underway. (“Entire categories of public policy options are effectively off-limits because of the combined influence of industry groups and donor interests.”)

If this sounds like 'shareholder democracy', then congratulations, you can read the signpost up ahead as we enter late-stage monopolistic capitalism. A realm where those who own the assets – the lands, the factories, the boardroom, the infrastructure in all forms – ought be those writing the laws. Enforcing the laws. Having the loudest voices. Because. You know, because. Because they already, most of all, got more money.

So why not codify laws which will formally entrench such extreme economic inequality?

So sayth the Senator from BigOil, and seconded by the Senator from MegaTelecomm.

390:

I'm more used to that suggestion coming from management, in the form "we need this right now immediately, do you have no concept of delivery deadlines?". It's not usually the engineers focussing 90% on the deadline and 10% on the functionality

That's true, but if I had a dollar for every engineer I've heard fulminating about their cool new invention having to support 'outdated' tech, or not considering how to support their product in the future, I could have retired long ago.

In my experience, a lot of electronics engineers want to work on the latest and coolest stuff, and don't think much of the long term unless forced to. And also tend to avoid simple low-tech solutions.

It's a different type of time-blindness.

391:

As we're past 300, an off-topic request for technical assistance:

I run an old computer (iMac running macOS 10.12 Sierra), because my photo library is nearly 12 TB and it's all stored in Aperture (which Apple no longer supports).

Back in 2020 the HD crashed and I had to get it restored, which is when the shop upgraded my OS while restoring the hard drive. Since then it's been running fine, but yesterday I noticed that all the pictures taken with my Mavic 2 Pro now can't be displayed by the computer, either in Aperture or Preview. My Nikon D800 images still work, which is why I never noticed this after the crash/restore/upgrade.

(Yes, lesson in timely backups taken. And now I use a Mini 3 Pro drone so didn't expect those raw images to display, so I shoot JPEGs for the panoramas.)

I know Aperture and Preview both rely on the OS to decode raw files, and I'm a bit confused as to why my newer OS can't display pictures from my old drone (but can from my even older camera). I've verified that the DNG files can be opened by Affinity Photo, so they aren't corrupted and that will do for single images but I want to reprocess some panoramas which would require opening hundreds of images by hand (because Affinity Photo doesn't do batch processing).

Ideally I'd like to get the OS understanding raw images from the drone again, but failing that I could use a raw processor that can handle batch images to create TIFFs that I could use to make the panoramas. I'd want a free/cheap raw processor, because this is (currently) a single-shot project.

Does anyone have an advice/recommendations?

392:

Re-attending fter 3 days going to Oban & Mallaig ....

Howard NYC & others
AFAIK, ONLY the effing stupid USA uses MM/DD?YY (or YYYY)
EVERYWHERE ELSE does it sensibly & uses short-to-long or long-to-short, according to context.

As Charlie says: Nobody else uses the American nonsense - right.

Timrowledge @ 221
COUGH
"Cursive" != "Italic
Cursive is ANY FORM of "joined-up, flowing script from of writing - the older, ghastly standard was called "copperplate" & is almost as hard to read as handwritten German "Fraktur"

Pigeon @ 227
Hmmm ... sometime about 1973 (?) I consciously went over to what some people still call "contental" marking of the number 7 & the latter Z in my handwriting, all the time.

HowardNYC @ 234
Sounds like n "interesting" tale!
... @ 239: Monday, the 29th of June, 2026, right.
Please explain about day 10^5 Gregorian?
What START DATE { = Day Zero { Or do you mean Day ONE?}} are you proposing?

Pigon
Name fields ...
There's a classic XKCD on that - where the child's name erases all the data fields!
SEE ALSO: Charlie @ 267

DavidL
* and so went door knocking to see who was still alive and had a memory of the details of a project they were on a few decades earlier.* - oh dear.
I just had this, last Tuesday: I went to a lecture - bacially on soli geology - about r9re)construction work for TFL, re-using old industrial land ... and the subject of it being on low-lying clay(ish) soils, probably susceptible to future flooding - down stream of the Thames Barrier, in fact.
I raised a "Q" on this & referred to the desireability of "Not repeating the disaster of 1953" - most of the audiwnce for gradate students, who, collectively went "UH?"
... The lecturer & I had to briefly backtrack & explain & how bad the death-toll was, then. Um.
SEE ALSO: SFR @ 301?

"Many names, but a single nature" - *Traveller in Black" by John Brunner, yes?

Guy Rixon
Such a repository is only supposed to work while its host institution continues. One hates to admit it but: The Vatican Library??

HowardNYC @ 315 * anyone else bought a new laptop recently? any of you finding WIN 11 a step backwards*??
I am typing this on NEW laptop - that I paid extra to have Win10 installed on(!)
Agreed, Win 11 is a complete shitshow.

Ms Fnd in a Lbry
YouTube READING HERE - enjoy!

Charlie @ 329
IIRC: Ian Fleming was at school with an older "Drax" - who was such a total shit, that he became a Bond Villain - & it appears that the family tradition continues (!)

H @ 369
And ( you forgot ) ... *Priest held in preventive custody for questioning" (Grin)

Ilya 187
erm - here 16 is the magic number!

393:

uhm...

is there any single, centralized 'watering hole' where folks self-assemble to discuss supporting obsolete tech?

for sure I've stumbled over a site for hobbyists obsessed with refurbishing motorcycles from 1930s

if not... there ought be

suggested motto: "old does not mean useless; obsolete tech still works!"

or...

"not dead yet"

or...

"not completely dead ...not yet"

394:

re: day 100,000

supposed date of JC's birth (there's about a dozen versions of 'calculations' which place that plus-minus months apart) with adjusting entries made by a pope intent upon calendar reform and whatever other date-related wackiness makes 29-JUN-2026

an excuse for a once in a lifetime (once every 3 centuries?) excuse for a knockdown dragout party week

nothing much but a silly excuse

for all those too young to have partied on 8/8/88 or Y2K or other such calendar-centric foolishness

395:

I have zero experience of the Mavic Pro 2, but have you considered GraphicConverter, from Lemke? It's been around for decades but is still regularly updated, is in the Mac app store, and has an amazingly handy rules-driven batch conversion tool.

396:

IIRC: Ian Fleming was at school with an older "Drax" - who was such a total shit, that he became a Bond Villain - & it appears that the family tradition continues (!)

My favourite Richard Drax anecdote: he drives a Land Rover (quite similar to yours) and likes to park it in his constituency. In disabled spaces. Occupying two or three of them at the same time, Just Because he's that kind of asshole. News report here.

397:

Check our Graphic Converter. $30 nag ware.

I use it for more simple things.

But I believe you can set up batch conversions of images from A to B.

398:

I have zero experience of the Mavic Pro 2, but have you considered GraphicConverter, from Lemke? It's been around for decades but is still regularly updated, is in the Mac app store, and has an amazingly handy rules-driven batch conversion tool.

Mavic 2 has a Hasselblad camera.

Didn't know about Graphic Converter being able to handle batches. Sadly the version in the App Store wants macOS 10.13. I'll see if there's a way I can get an older version. Ideally would want to try before buying.

399:

Charlie and I crossed threads. You can download it directly without the App store which I do any time I can. As the App store only gives you the latest and greatest which many not work on older systems. Or the App store not work on those older systems. And require an app store account. And ....

400:

AFAIK, ONLY the effing stupid USA

Ah, nope. Ask our Canadian friends about the "hill to die on" folks in the prairie provinces.

I'm a fan of Y/M/D or variations. But have to deal with the reality I live in.

And I suspect we got D/M/Y from the empire at one point and just refused to change. Because, well, loop this comment.

401:

Downloading older version (10) from the Lemke web site. Apple must have changed a lot with 10.13, as it's required for the three more recent versions. As long as this version works I'm happy. Fingers crossed!

402:

Apple must have changed a lot with 10.13

Yep.

404:

»ONLY the effing stupid USA«

According to this study:

https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2118631119

USA is probably becoming smarter year by year, because people born after 1990 did not grow up in a fog of nano particles of lead, from leaded gasoline.

Measured in feet, wearing wellies, that study says the people younger than 35 years are about 5% less "effing stupid" than the people aged 50-60 are "effing stupid".

Confirmation bias is a very tricky thing, but based on how well that study matches my personal experience, I would have exclaimed:

»ONLY in effing stupid USA (50 year and over)«

If you just want to vent, that may seem overly pedantic, but if you want to actually understand what's going on in USA, you have to keep influences like this in mind.

405:

My twins both took their husband's name. One, even though she's been divorced for years, keeps it. They were both tired of growing up in small-town Virginia and people who could not grasp the concept of a hyphenated last name.

406:

On our way to Pemmi-Con (last year's NASFiC), there was a wheel chair available when we arrived, walking onto the tarmac then into the terminal, but no one to push it. I wound up pushing my partner (not good for my knees) about 1km or more up and down ramps with utterly minimal signage.

Then getting to the correct terminal, and going to info (hi, our connecting flight was supposed to have left 15 min ag/not to worry go to the gate, they haven't left yet).

407:

Robert Prior @ 390:

That's true, but if I had a dollar for every engineer I've heard fulminating about their cool new invention having to support 'outdated' tech, or not considering how to support their product in the future, I could have retired long ago.

Tangent thought - a prime demonstration of the deleterious effects of inflation ... the expression used to be "If I had a dime for every ..." [I'd be a rich man today. etc etc] 😏

408:

If you just want to vent, that may seem overly pedantic, but if you want to actually understand what's going on in USA, you have to keep influences like this in mind.

This is also the core demographic targeted by Fox News.

Lead poisoning causes anger issues and poor impulse control: check. Now add mass media specifically targeting this demographic with propaganda designed to alternately enrage and terrify them, in between advertisements begging for political donations ...

409:

So, deep-ending on how much you are or are not one who considers deep time, you might want to read my first novel, 11,000 Years....

410:

Sorry, going crazy about this, both the article, and... you would like my new book, Becoming Terran... The trillionaires do not come out well.

411:

The 1850s rollback is a call out to the "Mudsill theory" inadvertently immortalized by Senator James Hammond of South Carolina in March, 1854. "Hammond argued that every society must find a class of people to do menial labor, whether called slaves or not, and that assigning that status on a racial basis followed natural law, while the Northern United States' social class of white wage laborers presented a revolutionary threat." (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mudsill_theory )

Remember hearing in school how a supermajority of Americans was unable to eliminate slavery? And how the slaveowners largely seceded from the US when the government looked to make slavery illegal anyway? Do you see ANY similarities with the present moment?

This isn't about how history nerds are right, it's that we're being stampeded towards a civil crisis by bad actors (since atheists are allergic to calling them evil) who are successfully using 150 year-old strategies and tactics against us.

Rather than do what they did--crawl the dungeons of history and use the resulting loot to beat them into submission--we're too busy sticking with our modernist and progressivist mindsets, wherein we have to invent what we need to beat them from first principles, because the only losers like the past. Like True Believers of any stripe, when our faith isn't working, we tend to practice it harder rather than learning from our enemies. In this case, that's a mistake that's killing people.

412:

And addressing: in at least one suburb of Chicago, I used to go over some friends' for a party, and the address were xx[we]yy whatsit st. which drove me crazy.

413:

I'm in my 60s and have no children, not married

lately not nearly as sad about missing out on children, having been reading the headlines, noting the ever lengthening list of nasty, unnecessary ugly activities

my guess? no matter who is in charge, whatever form of governance, by the 2050s there's gonna be some utterly horrid shitstorms (plural) play out

not least of which Detroit finding itself suddenly going from a decreasing 900,000 of greybeards, unskilled, retirees and no-choicers into a flood of 1,500,000 (or more) as a 100K annually relocate there for the promise of cheap housing, bearable summers... and reliable water from the Great Lakes

whereas Phoenix will become a city where only the wealthy can afford to survive, huddled inside HVAC for 20 hours a day each summer... for sure... an additional 0.5 gigawatts of PV and wind turbines will need be installed each year if more than half its population is avoid being simmered into human stew every August

414:

More on addressing.

I once lived at "1492 1/2B Somewhere Ave." The house was 1492. The granny unit over the garage was 1492 1/2. I moved in to the newly converted garage, which I was asked to name. I'm weird, so it became 1492 1/2B.

Another story: I lived on Santa Catalina Island for a bit. The "big" island town (Avalon) is so subdivided that the 1492 1/2B trick would be easy. Instead, they keep it simple: everyone has to get a PO Box, and that's where you get your mail. Street addresses are used for meeting people. Big deliveries like furniture from over town (LA) you have to pick up from the dock and make arrangements to take home.

415:

Howard NYC
Courtesy of Pterry: Aten't Dead Yet
And ... me & Pigeon & several others here, for a start!

Charlie @ 396
I hope no relation to Mavic Chen??
...
NO: This piece of utter shittery was what caught my attention.

P H-K @ 404
Which MIGHT HELP explain why an 78-year old like me has problems with people 25-40 years younger, because they ARE stupid! The actually "younger" ones are all right.
... Charlie @ 408 - scary.

H
(since atheists are allergic to calling them evil) NO.
I'll call these basterds evil - they deliberately go around hurting & killing innocent people.
That's evil under any code AFAIK ( Unless you are "Stalin" or a fascist )

416:

what a surprise when the "0.01%" find out their vast wealth will not be respected by droughts, floods, insects, etc

not to mention all the casual violence, random chaos, failed supply chains, passive resistance, actively hostile, etc

no need for widespread overt sabotage just patiently wait for entropy to screw 'em over

my personal dream is to be there to listen to them howl as their comfortable hideaways flicker, falter, fail... fall into darkness... due to defective components whose warranties are no longer going to be honored for replacement by megacorps indifferent to keeping promises made given their monopoly status means there's but one source for many, many mission critical fiddly bits...

...and all those components which turn out to be counterfeit crap not caught because there was no regulatory enforcement

tee hee... tee hee

417:

I'm not sure it's about lead poisoning, because American non-whites tend to show higher levels of blood lead than whites.

I'd suggest it's about simple racism. When someone's perceived claim on power is the color of their skin, people working to dismantle racism can be easily demonized against them. This helps reinforce racism, of course. The nasty thing about racism is that it, in turn, hides from impoverished white racists the fact that they're being beaten down into mudsills too. Impressive bit of divide and conquer, that, and not a new strategy either.

418:

Bank in '78, when I was living in Allentown, PA, a friend lived at somethingoroter and a half. That was the address...

419:

Less on addressing: I had a friend at university who lived in "Lastname House, Suburb, Dunedin". They were somewhat bemused that when addresses were standardised the chosen solution was to call their driveway Lastname Lane and make them number 1, Lastname Lane, Suburb, Dunedin. Their driveway is a narrow paved driveway about 30m long. It doesn't look like a public street. And 10 years later they still got a letter addressed to "Lastname House, Dunedin"...

420:

I don't think Robert Prior's original post was talking about "magic numbers", and my reply definitely wasn't. The point wasn't R&J's ages in relation to modern arbitrary legal limits, it was about their ages being the same as those of the kids being taught about them, and the different responses of the two different sets of kids to this information.

In RP's case it made the kids think of R&J less as strange people out of old books and more as people like them. In my case it made them seem more the kind of strange people who only existed in old books, because they patently weren't like us, and now we weren't even able to put it down to "adults are weird anyway" any more.

I am reminded of someone at Cambridge describing a conversation with a visitor from the US that foundered on the rock of the visitor's assumption that basically everyone would have "dated" (the visitor's term) well before they even got to university, and he could not be convinced that such was not the case. I am never sure where Canada stands between the US and the UK on matters of transatlantic contrast and I often guess it wrong, but I do get some impression that in this particular matter it's closer to the US.

421:

That's completely insane, but welcome to the 21st century :-(

422:

Which MIGHT HELP explain why an 78-year old like me has problems with people 25-40 years younger, because they ARE stupid!

There are writings and letters found in Europe going back 2000+ years of older folks saying the same about the young'ns. You know those aged 25-40. And in the US but not going quite so far back.

My father was asked to head up the committee rebuilding of our church building which had just burned. He was early 40s. This was a $1 million project in 1967. He got to hate family meals with his father who was in his 80s. (And not infirm. He ran his farm hands on for another 10 years.) They constantly turned into lectures of how the young were ruing things and being stupid. All of those 30 and 40 somethings organizing things and working with architects and contractors.

My father was a production manager in a nuclear fuel plant and building houses on the side. Another of those young folks ruining things was the head of maintenance at a local not small hospital and was qualified to review construction docs of such a building. And there were others.

423:

I am reminded of someone at Cambridge describing a conversation with a visitor from the US that foundered on the rock of the visitor's assumption that basically everyone would have "dated" (the visitor's term) well before they even got to university, and he could not be convinced that such was not the case. I am never sure where Canada stands between the US and the UK on matters of transatlantic contrast and I often guess it wrong, but I do get some impression that in this particular matter it's closer to the US.

You missed the point about R&J's ages, and about moral standards in the US too. So far as I can tell from my nieces and nephews, the pressure the Gen Xers felt in the 70s-90s to get it on as young as possible isn't there anymore. It seems to be less about churchianity, and more about impossible rents, impossible tuitions, sucktastic future prospects, and the normalizing of sexual diversity. They're too busy to start families, too poor to move away from the parents, and unsure they can afford to pay $250,000/kid, or whatever it is now, to raise them.

But that's not the point of inverting how R&J is taught. Google and Wikipedia will tell you what R&J is about in a few minutes. There's little point in trying to teach students how to figure out what R&J is about and grading them on what they write, because all they're likely doing is practicing their google-fu and summarization skills, while learning even less than their predecessors did from the exercise.

My point, in inverting R&J, is to point out that a) by most standards, modern and pre-modern, it's a story that's both tragic and skeezy, and b) it's how Shakespeare told the thing that turned it into a work of art. In this modern era, how a story gets told is as important as what the story is, and to the degree that the teacher can show how things like word choice and use of tropes and plot lines can make a skeezy story not just accepted but immortal, they've taught a useful lesson that can't (yet!) be faked by ChatGTA. I don't think this will ever catch on because such Shite is Just Not Done. But I'd gently suggest that teaching that storytelling technique matters, both as a life skill and because we're being inundated with stories in real life, and we need to learn to cope.

424:

In (most of) Brazil, house numbers are ordered but not sequential, they represent the number of meters from the start of the street.

That solves the problem where you demolish some warehouse and built three houses: usually the houses will be larger than a meter.

425:

I grew up on a street that was somewhat like that. It wasn't a precise measurement, but it was sequential by where the lot intersected the street, no matter how long the driveway was. Merging and subdividing lots is fairly normal here, too.

426:

Rural Aotearoa has gone the same way but using decametres to make the numbers smaller. Multiple houses at "the same" address get letters. So you can be "6242D State Highway One"

https://swdc.govt.nz/services/rapid-numbers/

Your RAPID number is based on the distance in metres your property is from the beginning of the road. The distance is measured from the start of the road (to the nearest 10 metres) to the centre of the driveway to your house. The final measurement is divided by 10 and rounded to a whole number. Numbers on the right side of the road are even; those on the left are odd. For example:

427:

Re: '... not inflicting Romeo and Juliet on a room filled with hormonal ticking bombs'

You'll also have to stop them seeing/hearing West Side Story.

Considering the audiences that Game of Thrones drew and the variety of screwed up relationships it portrayed, R&J seems tame*. However, because R&J is about young love (kids may take it more personally/seriously), it'd probably be a good idea to study it while the kids are still young, i.e., before the hormones skyrocket. It's a good intro for discussing romantic relationships and the impact of the couple's various environments on their relationship.

*We did at least four of Shakespeare's dramas in grades 8 and 9: while the fictional main characters in the plays were primarily political, the real-life impact on students saw no political leaders done in.

We also did 1984, Animal Farm, Brave New World, Lord of the Flies and a bunch of other dystopian modern novels.

Pixodaros @ 343:

Re: 'OTOH, we have an actual letter of Galen listing ...'

Thanks for the link! Agree that expertise in one area doesn't guarantee expertise elsewhere.

Something that seems to get regularly undervalued is how centers of knowledge/learning can influence cultures at home and abroad.

Sorta related ... For the longest time I was of the impression that Bologna was the first university ever. Nope! I saw a short BBC doc related to the below article which revised my opinion of certain aspects of Indian history/culture.

https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20230222-nalanda-the-university-that-changed-the-world

428:

It's after 30 comments. OK to talk about "Dune II"?

429:

300 comments

430:

Go back further to ancient Egypt:

"e live in a decaying age. Young people no longer respect their parents. They are rude and impatient. They frequently inhabit taverns and have no self-control." - ancient Egyptian priest

The older generation has always thought that the younger generation was going to hell in a hand basket.

431:

Haven't had time to read all the comments in the last few blogs ... just a couple of comments here and there from the regulars just to see whether it's back to talking about trains, arguing about which programming language is better, politics or what... Didn't see anything from EC since about a month ago ... ?

432:

"In my experience, a lot of electronics engineers want to work on the latest and coolest stuff, and don't think much of the long term unless forced to. And also tend to avoid simple low-tech solutions."

You may be glad to hear that I take pretty much the opposite view. The "latest stuff" mostly isn't cool. It's more likely to be tedious and shit. Recipe-following Lego with expensive bricks, like the modern Lego kits that you can only use to build a Galactic Starwisp Combat Drone mk. XVII and are full of parts that are useless for anything else. You're hardly even doing "electronics"; you're hooking up a bunch of opaque blobs, which all turn out to be microcontrollers in disguise, according to how the datasheet tells you to do it. The only decision you need or get to make is which version of the firmware you can order the chips pre-programmed with best covers what you're trying to do, and if you're trying to do something that the manufacturer hasn't thought of you just can't do it.

For added insult and annoyance, the manufacturers make ludicrous claims. This is a system to take the raw output from two funky sensors and present the user with a single value derived from it; the only tricky bit is the sensors themselves. We only make these as parts built into a microcontroller. Our previous version of this hardware-you-actually-want-with-microcontroller-on-its-back could be set up and used on its own. Our new version has got so complicated it now needs a second microcontroller to set it up and tell it what to do, and that in turn needs a full-size computer to handle the flood of data vomiting out of it. This makes everything simpler and cheaper and the design uses fewer parts. And I shit pure carbon in a tetrahedral lattice.

But if you can manage to find a source for the funky sensors in their raw and naked state, you can use a couple of op-amps and diodes to combine their outputs and present the derived value to the user on a meter. It doesn't quite calculate the value correctly because it ignores some small terms, but the sensors' inherent inaccuracy swamps the error so you never notice in practice. It actually is simpler and cheaper, probably by an order of magnitude, and it doesn't shit its pants when someone uses an arc welder in the next room.

What I find really depressing is that people not only don't think of that, they don't even know how to think of it, and don't understand old things designed by people who did. I've found numerous discussions of such old designs on the internet and they nearly always get it wrong. For instance plenty of people have written descriptions of the manifold pressure sensor for the Bosch D-Jetronic pure analogue fuel injection system from the 60s, and some of them have plotted response curves for it with lots of expensive gear, but I haven't read a single correct description of its electrical operation in the context of the rest of the circuit, and without knowing the measurement conditions it's not possible to translate those response curves into something meaningful in that context. Nor has anyone made a more practical suggestion of how to replicate its function with currently-available parts than "use a microcontroller", when in fact you could do it with essentially a different arrangement of the parts you would need to connect the microcontroller into the rest of the circuit anyway.

I consider that trying to design something with ingenuity instead of a massive parts count is where much of the fun is.

433:

Q: How many GOP White Christian Nationalists does it take to screw in a light bulb?

A:

One to assure the everything possible is being done to save the lives of the unborn from the Darkness of Satan's Touch

Three to blame (variously) Jews, uppity women, gays, for the original bulb's untimely demise

One to verify the replacement bulb is not Jewish-gay-uppity

One to screw the bulb into the water faucet (it's way too complex for mere mortals to do this without Divine Intervention)

...and four hundred fifty-three clergy to rely upon this task as basis for fund raising from gullible viewers

434:

so...?

hmmm... how about R&J exploiting as raw feed into how layout your on 14 episode mini-series as a pitch to Netflix? teaching about scripts and plots and camera angles and marketing and financing...

heh... one week focus upon costuming and makeup to spec out the wardrobe budgeting... link into efforts by someone else's to teach the kiddies about MS Excel worksheets

maybe go so far as actually film a couple episodes...?

435:

Haven't seen Dune 2 yet, but I was having fun on FacePlant cooking up weapons that would work against shields, this on a post that was asking a martial artist if the movie swords would work as advertised.

If anyone wants to play along, I've already got a list: laser pointers, poisoned fire works, high explosives...swords might move too slow to cut or penetrate.

436:

I'll see your 300 comments and raise you to 350 comments

437:

David L @ 422
WELL DONE for missing the point entirely!
I actually said that the "young" ones were all right .. it's those in the middle - over 35, under 70, who are the problem (!)
- & DP @ 430
Disagree, for reasons given above.

438:

My default response would be to try imagemagick, since it says it has a Mac version.

http://imagemagick.org/

I don't actually know if it will do what you want, but it does batch processing from the command line and you seem to be able to make it do more or less anything once you figure out how. In any case the website will have the information.

439:

I'd have gone for "1492 2/2", just to really do people's heads in.

440:

Online sports gambling is now legal in North Carolina (as of 12 noon today).

I don't particularly care, but the relentless advertising the last few weeks has been really annoying and I expect it's now just going to get worse.

I wish the Federal Government would ban advertisements for gambling the same way they banned tobacco advertising.

But they won't. More likely the tobacco advertising ban is going to be undone.

441:

Heteromeles @ 411:

This isn't about how history nerds are right, it's that we're being stampeded towards a civil crisis by bad actors (since atheists are allergic to calling them evil) who are successfully using 150 year-old strategies and tactics against us.

Facts are facts. THEY ARE EVIL and it doesn't require any reversion to religion for me to call them that. Not allergic at all.

Like Forrest's mama says, "Evil is as evil does."

442:

Howard NYC @ 413:

I'm in my 60s and have no children, not married

lately not nearly as sad about missing out on children, having been reading the headlines, noting the ever lengthening list of nasty, unnecessary ugly activities

Glad I'm not inflicting that bleak future on the kids I never had, but every day older I get, the lonelier it is with no one to give a shit about me.

443:

DP @ 430:

Go back further to ancient Egypt:

"e live in a decaying age. Young people no longer respect their parents. They are rude and impatient. They frequently inhabit taverns and have no self-control." - ancient Egyptian priest

The older generation has always thought that the younger generation was going to hell in a hand basket.

I suspect the corollary has also always been true; the kids are always lamenting that the olds don't understand what it's like to be young.

444:

"it's how Shakespeare told the thing that turned it into a work of art."

That's more or less what they tried to teach us, but without your reasoning behind it. So far as there was any reasoning it was pretty undisguisedly to get us to pass the exam, and you couldn't just choose not to take the exam because "everyone does English Literature O-level and you'd look weird if you didn't" (so whoop-de-do, what's new, thought I).

At one point we were given a "project" (fancy name for several weeks' worth of homework encapsulated in a single order) to write a sort of long criticism/assesment thingy (can't remember the fancy name for that) about a book or books of our own choice, rather than the teacher's (and not necessarily by the kind of author fetishised by English Literature courses; we could choose one we liked if we liked). Mine came back with a comment saying it was no good because I'd barely mentioned [list of at least 5 exammy-buzzword things, all on separate lines] when they should have made up most of the content.

I'd barely mentioned them because they basically didn't exist in my perception. I could regurgitate what the teacher had said about them when we were going over a book in class, but I couldn't identify them even when he was going through examples line by line; I found them no more remarkable than the author using words like "and" and "the", and could never see what was supposed to be special about these lines that made them excel over other authors, or even different. I'd written about all the things that I could see and identify as reasons I thought one book was better or worse than another, so the teacher's comment ended with "By all means discuss aspects like characterisation and style, but remember that these are not what the examiners are interested in". Which made me scorn the course even more than I did already.

Re "getting it on", it wasn't that so much that made them "characters you only find in books", it was the acting so bloody mental about it. I'm glad our course wasn't one where they made us read "Wuthering Heights". By the time I read that it did make sense to me, but it would have been just as wasted as R&J at school, and for pretty much the same reason: making sense of it depends on life experiences that you haven't got anywhere near when you still haven't done your O-levels.

445:

Heteromeles @ 435:

Haven't seen Dune 2 yet, but I was having fun on FacePlant cooking up weapons that would work against shields, this on a post that was asking a martial artist if the movie swords would work as advertised.

If anyone wants to play along, I've already got a list: laser pointers, poisoned fire works, high explosives...swords might move too slow to cut or penetrate.

IIRC from reading the books, the laser pointer would be no good. Lasers make the shields & laser interact explosively to the detriment of both the shield wearer & the laser wielder ...

On Arrakis the shield produces some phenomena (probably a vibration) that summons sand worms which is why shields are never used outside of the rocky enclave at the north pole.

The reason for swords (and daggers & needles etc) is the shields stop HIGH SPEED objects from penetrating, but are not effective against slower penetrations - a thrown spear could be stopped, but a spear thrust could get through.

Poisoned fireworks or high explosives would move too fast. Poison gas would work.

446:

Your RAPID number is based on the distance in metres your property is from the beginning of the road. ... Numbers on the right side of the road are even; those on the left are odd.

How can you tell which end of the road is the beginning?

447:

WELL DONE for missing the point entirely!

I don't think I did. But whatever.

448:

Off-off topic- that "pulsetasmania.com.au" article is meant to be satire, no?

Sharing this image from the Booking page of a wonky experience, because I don't think many have seen it:

https://web.archive.org/web/20240225010300/https://willyschocolateexperience.com/main-img/booking-hero.png

I was amused that one of the prompts apparently made it in to an LLM generated image, and it looks better than the usually expected gibberish text

449:

I assume it's an arbitrary choice based on history. But it greatly reduces the number of things someone has to know in order to visit a property or deliver something to it, which is what matters.

FWIW existing streets numbers are a goddamn mess in Australia. A lot of longer roads get renumbered by every local council and there's no consistency - two "1 Important Avenue" can be adjacent, across the road from each other, or at opposite ends of the suburb. And they don't renumber them when changing boundaries or amalgamating councils. So you get "1 Important Ave, Belmore" is actually in Lakemba, or worse there are now two or more "1 Important Ave, Belmore" due to boundary shifts. That's not including real estate "flexible locations". And not helped by every suburb in Australia (there's a rule!) having both King St and Queen St, anywhere with a railway line has a Railway Ave and so on. Just because two adjacent suburbs both have a King St does not mean those roads are contiguous, and the boundary shifts may well mean that a suburb having two King Streets does not have a "1 King St".

I assume there is a "mistaken beliefs about addresses" list somewhere.

The WhatThreeWords computational demonology approach too often ends up requring an actual demon because the nearest road isn't the one used to access the property. you will inevitably get properties where the nearest road is not the access road, or the access starts in an unexpected place, leading to people giving emergency services the address of the end of their driveway plus navigation instructions and now you're back in the "turn left at the sleeping cow, drive 120m down the track, turn right and go half way up the hill (don't wake the cow)".

450:

dude,

we care, but we are scattered across 24 time zones

if you really want to reconnect with people closer to you than NZ or UK or NYC, please volunteer for some cause you believe in...

I considered it but decided being alone was simpler albeit lonelier... and I gave up on dating long, long ago... crazy how New York women's expectation rise as they get older and are decreasingly willing to comprise... some snarky feminist dubbed it the "Sex In The City Effect" which includes expectation that any potential romance candidate either owns his own G5 jet or at the very least has a Park Avenue apartment with five or more bathrooms

451:

From the top.. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_technology_in_the_Dune_universe#Holtzman_effect )

IIRC from reading the books, the laser pointer would be no good. Lasers make the shields & laser interact explosively to the detriment of both the shield wearer & the laser wielder ...

The anti-laser stuff is silliness, but a lasgun+shield was used as a booby trap by Duncan Idaho in Dune. Lasgun+shield was used as a cheap nuke in Chapterhouse Dune, and shields were banned in God Emperor of Dune (from Wikipedia). So make projectiles (mortars, shotgun shells, arrows, lawn darts, whatever) that turn on a small laser when they hit a shield. Not good for the shield wearer. Equip suicide bombers with laser pointers, that sort of thing.

On Arrakis the shield produces some phenomena (probably a vibration) that summons sand worms which is why shields are never used outside of the rocky enclave at the north pole.

And by Children of Dune, they were using small shields to summon worms as a weapon.

The reason for swords (and daggers & needles etc) is the shields stop HIGH SPEED objects from penetrating, but are not effective against slower penetrations - a thrown spear could be stopped, but a spear thrust could get through.

Supposedly (not in Wikipedia), the penetration speed is 6-9 cm/sec. How you breathe through that I don't know, but it would take 1-2 seconds to reach a heart at that speed. Kind of hard to do? Presumably anything flying in gets stuck in the shield, instead of bouncing off. That allows for some nastiness...

Poisoned fireworks or high explosives would move too fast. Poison gas would work.

Ming Dynasty armies fiddled a lot with weaponized fire works, for instance by adding arsenic to the smoke. So you launch such a firework at the face of a shield wearer and it gets stuck in the shield, burning, until it explods. Dude gets a lungful of poison gas, followed eventually by a spray of hot nastiness. Geneva Convention might not like it.

Bangsticks (aka powerheads https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powerhead_(firearm) ) might also work. These are basically shotgun shells mounted on spears for underwater use on sharks or gators. In Dune, you get the bangstick through the shield, press the powerhead on the dude's skin, and fire at point zero range. Designing semi-auto bangsticks that weigh as much as swords is left as an exercise for the student, although a heavily modified nail gun....hmmm.

As fir high explosive, I'm not a connoisseur of the series, so I don't know what happens when an explosive hits a shield. Presumably shields don't magically absorb momentum, so they explosion throws the shield wearer backwards without penetrating. You see where this is going...High explosives generate really fast shockwaves. So even if the explosion plasma doesn't pass through the shield, the shockwave might, by accelerating the dude rapidly, carwreck style. Hit him hard enough, he's dead.

So that's where I'm going. Treat a shield as a space to be polluted, occluded, shaken, stirred, and illuminated. And find ways to intrude explosives through.

Anyone else want to play? I didn't even get to the high-amp prods...

452:

“ basically everyone would have "dated" (the visitor's term) well before they even got to university,” Well I can’t think of anyone in my then social group (the not very popular but actually fairly smart nerds in coastal Dorset) that wasn’t part of a reasonably long lasting romantic and sexual relationship in the years we were 16/17/18, ie before university, ie late 70s. So yeah, we “dated”.

And for SFReader, we’re mostly onto arguing about the best trains and the politics of programming languages. Next stop, best language for trains, which would actually nicely link back to the origins of computer enthusiasts in the MIT model train club. I even still know a couple of people from those days.

453:

Out of curiousity, whereabouts in Dorset? I grew up in Poole and my schools were across the border in Hants. We got the dating thing, the sex thing not so much - I attended Catholic schools so that sort of thing was frowned upon. It was also mid-70s for me; I went to uni in '76.

454:

432 - My understanding of Bosch "Jetronic" was that, at least up to version K, it was basically a mechanical system rather than an (elect)ronic one.

440 - The fact of "advertising" does not mean that you have to buy their products. I frequently "watch" adverts with sound muted. How useful is an advert for $burger_chain if you have no idea which particular poached hub cap is being advertised?

444 - I wonder how you'd have got on with my EngLit teacher who actually said "The 'party line' is $waffle; write that down in the exam and you'll pass." She did also give the class some tools for understanding/enjoying more or less any book.

446 - If it's like in the UK you start from $prominent_building (eg city chambers, main post office) or at the end of the road that attaches to a road that starts at that building.

455:

Also note that the WhatThreeWords approach has huge problems -- it's designed to make it easy to convey a location in speech over a bad phone line, but it absolutely needs to have a controlled vocabulary with no homophones (there/they're/their/etc), no taboo words in this or any other language (or some bluenose will die because they can't tell the rescue service "I'm at cuntpoofuck ..." or something that accidentally sounds like "Allah sucks" in the particular obscure dialect of Arabic which they happen to speak), all words have to be readily pronounceable from the standard English orthography (the Cholomondley-Featherstonehaugh problem -- or just imagine a lost American trying to pronounce "Leicester"), and so on.

As I understand it, the WhatThreeWords people did a reasonable first pass at doing it in English but without regard for second-language meanings or even "can our users even pronounce this when they're panicking?".

Might have been better to go with four words, but a tightly controlled lexicon with no more than twelve syllables total, vetted for phonetic pronunciation, cross-checked against the nine next most widely spoken languages for obscenity/blasphemy, and so on.

456:

Returning to "MS Fnd in a Lbry"
It is not only "books" or "records" but valuable physical objects, that can tell us lots of things.
THIS example, in the news is a classic example of such a non-loss of records & "memory".
Valuable specimens, rescued from a skip, indeed.
I have my own example - a print of "The front/W elevation of Hatfield House" dated from some time in the C18th, rescued from, yes, a skip, by my father ....

457:

See that and raise Bhaile a Mhanaich, Bellochantay, Milngavie,... :-D

458:

Someone, somewhere, needs to film a comedy skit along the lines of the elevator sketch, only about a localized version of WhatThreeWords dealing with a motorist who's broken down in the Highlands.

RAC: where does WhatThreeWords say you are, sir?

VICTIM: It says I'm ... (tries to pronounce) dreicht, teuchters, scunnered?

459:

Numbering starts in the extreme point closest to the city center; as in NZ, odd numbers are on the left.

So you can always tell which way to go: if the even numbers are on your right, you're looking to the end of the road.

And as an aside, there is a city (Bauru, SP state) where the houses are numbered (block) - (meters), so (I guess) you know how many blocks you must still must go. If the street is one way and you must take a parallel one, that's handy·

460:

is there any single, centralized 'watering hole' where folks self-assemble to discuss supporting obsolete tech?

There is always usenet (and https://www.eternal-september.org/ ):

S100Computers group is very active creating new S100 cards supporting old tech (486s and IDE interfaces, etc.)

alt.folklore.computers gets into historical stuff a lot, and the computer museum volunteers speak up occasionally.

SEHBC is about old/new Heathkit computers (mostly H8 & HDOS)

There may be other newsgroups supporting other tech, but I have no interest so didn't look...

461:

Didn't see anything from EC since about a month ago ... ?

It has been a while. Hope he's just too busy with life and family to hang out here.

462:

Yeah, fingers crossed he's ok.

463:

D came out in the late 60s, and was entirely electronic, analogue, all done with discrete transistors, and with several resistors made up of series/parallel combinations of E24 parts selected during assembly by trial and error to give the precise value required. K came out in the early 70s as the replacement for D, and was entirely mechanical. I'm not sure why they did it that way round, but I'd guess one possible reason might have been D acquiring a (quite undeserved) bad reputation due to garages not understanding it and fucking it up. Nevertheless, D did hang on for quite a while after K was supposed to have taken over, because Lucas were able to hack it to run a certain V12, which would not have been feasible with K, so I'm not sure quite which of them was the last to disappear.

464:

Canonically, poison gas does not reliably work. His shield is what saves the Baron from the Duke's tooth. A fully gas-saturated environment probably would do it, I suppose.

465:

have you considered GraphicConverter, from Lemke?

OK, downloaded and installed GraphicConverter, and no luck. It creates TIFF images that are just black rectangles. It says that the DNG file is "com.adobe.raw-image", which leads me to wonder if it is using something stored in my system to interpret the image? (I know a lot of files in the system folder have the name format 'com.company.something', hence the speculation.)

Affinity Photo is able to process the images, so I can (tediously) convert them one-by-one, but it would be nice if I could somehow make my system once again understand how to understand them.

I have the files recovered off my old (crashed) HD, so if it's a matter of copying a com file from there to my current system I can do that if I know what to look for and where to move it. I've tried hunting for information on this but haven't had any luck finding anything that is both understandable and relevant. Which is probably more a lack on my part than in the available information.

For reference, the camera is a Hasselblad L1D-20c. (May or may not be relevant for what file to look for.)

466:

Where I grew up (small town Alberta) we got the dating and sex thing. The key differentiator was between the kids who had received some form of sex education (and thus awareness of birth control) and the religious kids (Catholic, evangelical) who learned about reproduction by doing.

We had a name for the teenagers who attended the Catholic and the Evangelical school systems. 'Parents'.

467:

I did some looking around. Wow, it is hard to find support for that camera, which is weird since the drone got lots of reviews.

Anyway, I did find this:

https://www.paintshoppro.com/en/free-trials/

free 30 day trial of Corel paint shop pro (yes, it is Windows software).

Use it to convert the images and then edit on your Mac.

468:

Building a "safe" what3words is worse even than that -- you have to consider what combinations of your inoffensive words might imply. e.g. the railway bridge over the Ouse at Ely has the what3words "options, president, leap" (I know this because it is printed on the bridge, perhaps so that people can report suicide attempts or bridge strikes by feral birds of prey or something).

In the UK this particular example is largely safe because we don't have a President and the country isn't particularly politically divided any more because only ~25% of the population don't hate the Tories, but imagine the effect of something like that in the US. What, I can't read this out, it's trying to get the President to commit suicide by jumping from a railway bridge, and we all know magic words have power (though we don't call them that), and he's our great white savior (emphasis on white), and suicide is a Sin.

469:

Thanks for looking. What's really weird is that it was supported on the Mac, by the operating system. And may still be supported, for all I know, because I'm not 100% certain that the shop that repaired my computer did a good job of installing my new OS.

Which brings up a good point: I should visit an Apple Store (or my library) with a few of the files on a thumbdrive and see if Preview displays them. If it does, then I know that my OS is screwed up (or at least missing components).

Thanks for the suggestion about Corel. I already have Affinity Photo, which does support them, so I'm using that in odd moments to convert the files one at a time. Tedious, but not impossible.

470:

The key differentiator was between the kids who had received some form of sex education (and thus awareness of birth control) and the religious kids (Catholic, evangelical) who learned about reproduction by doing.

Back when I was doing my practicums as a student teacher I was placed at two Catholic schools. At one the nuns had responsibility for that kind of thing, and made certain that the kids knew the official Catholic position, but they also made certain that the kids knew where to tell their non-Catholic friends to go for advice — places that would give practical advice about contraception and STDs. I think they also passed along some practical advice themselves, for the students to pass along to their non-Catholic friends. For the good of the friends, of course. ;-)

The other had teachers doing sex ed, which was way more theologically doctrinaire than the nuns. Which was hypocritical, given the number of abortions and affairs that were freely discussed in the staff room.

471:

... no taboo words in this or any other language ...

This is where the name Exxon comes from.

all words have to be readily pronounceable from the standard English orthography (the Cholomondley-Featherstonehaugh problem -- or just imagine a lost American trying to pronounce "Leicester"), and so on.

99.99999% will never be found.

472:

I assume there is a "mistaken beliefs about addresses" list somewhere.

There exists at least one list of lists of mistaken beliefs about addresses. Ouch, and oof, and I'm not even surprised.

473:

I want to go back to 1997, and BAN ALL drug advertising for prescription drugs. "Ask your doctor if x is right for you"... as if they didn't know beforehand.

474:

Same problem as OGH's link: I see zero chocolate. All other kinds of candy and crap, but no chocolate.

475:

Changing street names? Way back, when I was driving a cab, wound up in Bryn Mawr (outside of Philly). Old Gulph Rd. went ahead, then looped around, then crossed itself, and on the other side of itself now had another name.

This isn't mentioning the road in Virginia that's "Dixie Highway", crosses into DC? MD? and changes names to Lincoln Highway.

476:

Hey, guy, we care. You're annoying at times (aren't all of us?), but you're our annoyance.

477:

I don't think I had a "date" or more until I was 18. But then, a) from 5th grade on, I lived in another neighborhood, miles away, where we were the tiny minority, and b) my high school, founded in 1839, only went co-ed in the 1980's.

478:

there's a story beyond this all...

"Fermi Paradox: Best of Intentions, Worst of Customer Service"

...how each 'n every civilization out across the universe eventually succumbs to their version of Amazon being overtaken by non-superior AI and the economy grinds to a halt due to voice-to-text misunderstandings

heck... not a story... a compendium of stories

PREDICT: "please repeat that" as per Scottish elevator skit ought become a swear word by 2053 AD, useful for taunting 'n provoking someone involved in a traffic wreck

{ maybe time I got a full night's sleep... the nightmares are there in the daylight }

479:

Re: "Parents" ROTFL! True - in the early nineties, I saw a newspaper story to the effect that 4-3, unwed teenaged mothers self-identified as "evangelical".

480:

Thank you, consider the idea stolen. Really - I'm thinking of a couple of people I know who run small presses that do anthologies all the time. I need to talk to them...

481:

@ 474: Fair selection of nightmare fuel though...

@ 477: Quite. Plenty of schools were single-sex. There simply weren't any girls. Girls were either sister's friends (if you had one) who were outside consideration due to age difference and being like your sister, or the subjects of the eagerly-sought photographs that were distributed along the hedgerows by the porn fairy. It was entirely possible for real girls to remain strange and exotic creatures right until you went to university, and even then few universities got anywhere near an equal balance.

(Don't really know what it was like if you were a girl; all I know is that my sister didn't have boyfriends, or friends with boyfriends, until she got out of single-sex schooling, but it wasn't something we ever talked about. And anyone who was gay kept it very dark indeed.)

483:

It is already illegal in the UK and IIRC the entire EU to advertise prescription drugs, outside of certain channels narrowly targeting practitioners. But then, we don't have the American fetish about free speech (inflamed by the "corporations are people" doctrine) over here.

484:

Hi, almost ex-neighbour! Yup, Poole, 73 to 78, good(ish) ol’Poole Grammar. Next you’ll be telling me you did ballet at Mm. Murilova, though I don’t remember a Maddy. Ah, I wasn’t a dancer, stage manager & scenery.

485:

Well, single-sex school life is sub-optim. Mine (the aforementioned Poole Grammar) was single-sex but the girls Grammar was just a couple of miles away. And in a modest sized town we didn’t only mix with people from the same sc.

486:

Thanks. I didn't notice that menu item (I'd asked about batch processing years ago and was told it couldn't do it and there were no plans to add it).

Now I need to figure out how to make it save 16-bit TIFF files instead of 8-bit, and how to make it use the chromatic aberration and de-vignetting options when processing the raw file. Maybe the answer lies in macros? At least I know where to start looking.

Thanks again!

487:

I have finally seen the controversial photograph of the Princess of Wales. Even I don't have total immunity to click-bait.

Can someone point out what makes the photo obviously "Photoshopped"?

Because I don't see it.

488:

This article shows 9 points in detail.

(hope it's not too tabloidish, I just use the site for the crosswords)

489:

Thanks again. I figured out how to change the TIFF destination files to 16-bit. I also found threads on the Serif forums complaining about how there is no way to specify any of the Develop Module settings when using batch processing. Macros are unavailable in the Develop Module (lots of complaints about that).

So it looks like my options are to develop by hand and have devignetted images, develop as a batch but have vignetted images, or fix my OS so that it recognizes the files again.

On the bright side, it looks like Affinity Photo does a better job devignetting than Apple did, so although laborious this might be a better solution anyway.

490:

Howard NYC @ 450:

dude,

we care, but we are scattered across 24 time zones

Thankyou.

if you really want to reconnect with people closer to you than NZ or UK or NYC, please volunteer for some cause you believe in...

I do have connections with people "locally" although they were damaged by the Covid Pandemic when in-person gatherings were banned. One of them, my favorite, a weekly folk music circle, just ended and never started back (we lost our venue when the host died - cancer).

The others went to Zoom and it's NOT the same.

My old house it was maybe 15 feet to the nearest neighbor & I saw them regularly; talked to several of them every day ... even the ones whose names I didn't know I had at least a nodding acquaintance.

Here at my new place I can see my neighbors houses ...

I just don't have the close family connections. I miss them and envy those who do.

[Note: One thing I refuse to do is try to tell other people how to raise their kids and/or get along with their families ... although some times it's hard.]

I considered it but decided being alone was simpler albeit lonelier... and I gave up on dating long, long ago... crazy how New York women's expectation rise as they get older and are decreasingly willing to comprise... some snarky feminist dubbed it the "Sex In The City Effect" which includes expectation that any potential romance candidate either owns his own G5 jet or at the very least has a Park Avenue apartment with five or more bathrooms

I married a narcissistic sociopath when I was 25. I'm not socially adept and didn't recognize it at the time. As the song goes:

She really worked me over good
She was a credit to her gender
She put me through some changes, Lord
Sort of like a Waring blender

It took years to recover from the financial devastation she left in her wake and I don't know if I've ever recovered from the emotional toil (unable to trust).

But at that, I feel lucky she latched on to some other poor SOB & ran off before she murdered me.

491:

heh...

one possibility is a John Scalzi short story about customer service... the bad news? made into an episode of Love, Death & Robots

so wouldn't be cheap rights

but look around on smashwords.com for any newbbie whose got a snarky piece

or... maybe... { sound of rusty wheels grinding } ...uhhh! got it!

contact comedians who do stand up... anyone whose routine include modern horrors of being on hold or seeking warranty fulfillment

that... and try imagining what would have happened in 2021 if the supply chain mess had really gone sour

some terrorists blow up all those moored freighters impatiently awaiting a berth to unload... an irate employee deliberately wrecks the locks on the Panama Canal and then some nutjob sinks a freighter blocking the Suez Canal...

maybe China invade Taiwan and all the chip foundries are destroyed as a FU gesture by resistance fighters

oh... how all those shitstorm would overlap and reenforce!

492:

paws4thot @ 454:

440 - The fact of "advertising" does not mean that you have to buy their products. I frequently "watch" adverts with sound muted. How useful is an advert for $burger_chain if you have no idea which particular poached hub cap is being advertised?

Yeah, I don't have to buy. That doesn't make the advertisements any less annoyingly intrusive - especially the recent saturation campaign for sports gambling being served up here. Nor does it make the advertisers themselves any less predatory & abusive.

The U.S. banned tobacco advertising and I'd just as soon they banned advertising for gambling

... and drinking - even though I take the occasional drink myself, I don't care to be bombarded with deceptive advertising.

493:

Charlie Stross @ 455:

... (the Cholomondley-Featherstonehaugh problem -- or just imagine a lost American trying to pronounce "Leicester"), and so on.

As one of those "lost" Americans, I'm pretty sure "Cholomondley" is pronounced "Chumley" and "Leicester" is "Lester" ** ... but what is "Featherstonehaugh" just in case I ever need to know in an emergency?

** Both are frequently trotted out here in the U.S. as examples of how the "British" and the "Americans" are divided by their common language ... along with lift & flat & hood & boot & someone is driving on the wrong side of the road. 🙂

Plus I learned in high school Latin "castra" means CAMP, so all those city names ending in "cester", "chester", "caster" ... date in some way from the Roman occupation of Britain.

494:

Ulthar Dweller @ 459:

Numbering starts in the extreme point closest to the city center; as in NZ, odd numbers are on the left.

Is that "on the left" when facing inwards or "on the left" when facing outwards? 😏

495:

"Featherstonehaugh" is pronounced "Fan-shaw".

496:

He he he! "on the left" when facing the end of the road.

I remember from Feynman Lectures that left or right are the only thing you couldn't explain in a message just based in physics, so I'm in good company.

(the site was updated recently and is a superb primer in quantum physics, just because it's a bit old, so it starts with the very basics.)

497:

WhatThreeWords approach ... needs to have a controlled vocabulary with no homophones, no taboo words

I was more concerned that saying "free pizza lunch" loudly into the phone a few times might summon the wrong sort of demon...

498:

Uncle Stinky @ 464:

Canonically, poison gas does not reliably work. His shield is what saves the Baron from the Duke's tooth. A fully gas-saturated environment probably would do it, I suppose.

Yeah it's been a while since I read the books. I have RE-read the last one that Frank Herbert wrote "Chapterhouse: Dune" in this century ... and I've read some of the books his son wrote with Kevin J. Anderson, so that's not surprising.

499:

Girls' High (that's the name) was across the street. But I had to take the subway home, and didn't know anyone (until 12th grade, when I joined the Drama club), and there was no where to hang out to meet.

Besides, I was in the middle of a book, don'tcha know?

500:

Yeah, lots of places have names that separate the newbies from the locals. La Jolla and Jamacha Road locally, Suisun Bay up near Sacramento, Del Norte County on the Oregon Border, Williamette Valley in Oregon, Cairo Illinois... Makes life fun.

501:

Speaking of the shields in Dune - one issue: visible light gets through it (otherwise, you don't see out). So, lasers should work.

502:

You could probably get another app that can record the keystrokes and mouse events that you use to process one photo and select the next. Then have it replay the inputs X number of times

503:

The only one I ever knew was Feather-stun-haw...

504:

Canonically, poison gas does not reliably work. His shield is what saves the Baron from the Duke's tooth. A fully gas-saturated environment probably would do it, I suppose.

Oxygen still gets in and CO2 out, not to mention H2O (from exhaled breath), so obviously there is some diffusion happening.

He's also doing something with momentum and kinetic energy, otherwise heavy high-velocity rounds would knock a shield-wearer over and likely given them concussion and soft-tissue damage. I can't remember if this was addressed in the books or not. I read the first two or three, and gave up as the mysticism and plotting made it seem more fantasy than SF. (Also, way to many names/characters to keep track of for a casual read.)

505:

I think the key word in Uncle Stinky's post is reliably. I rechecked the passage, and the Baron, once he calms down from "I almost died just now" credits his shield, Piter's dying gasp as a warning, and running like hell for a gas-proof bolt hole. A shield by itself isn't reliable, since it passes everything from air to swords.

My counter to that is to stick a firework emitting toxic smoke on the shield in front of someone's face. Can they knock it off or get it to slide away, or does the shield just give them two seconds to contemplate what's seeping in? If it's the latter...

506:

Maybe, if I could figure out how to do the 'go to the next photo' part and the 'save as' part, which depend on me looking at the screen and deciding where to click and what to type.

Also might need delay built in, as there's a noticeable interval waiting for a progress bar when I select my preset for the drone (mostly the computer calculating the chromatic aberration) and again when I click "Develop".

For some panoramas I can probably use the existing batch processing (thanks again for pointing it out) as any banding from vignetting isn't obvious; for others I have hopes that reprocessing might fix the problem.

507:

"Plus I learned in high school Latin "castra" means CAMP, so all those city names ending in "cester", "chester", "caster" ... date in some way from the Roman occupation of Britain."

They're from the Anglo-Saxons renaming them some time after the Romans had left, using names of the form "Thingummy ceastre" (other spellings exist). The second word is derived from Latin, but it's not what the Romans called them; the Roman names were completely different.

So for instance the fort at Lancaster was probably Galacum (the identification is a bit uncertain), but it got renamed to Lune ceaster = camp on the Lune, and over time that got squidged around to make Lancaster.

Worcester is from Weogorna ceastre meaning that it was in the territory of the Weogorna tribe. The Latin name is usually taken to be Vigornium, but that's actually fake Latin concocted as a derivation from Weogorna when the Romans had been gone for centuries and nobody could remember what they really called it.

With Chester they had run out of imagination and renamed it just as plain "camp". It was Deva to the Romans.

As for "names to confuse Americans", the next station down the line from Leicester is Loughborough, which got turned into "Loogabarooga", and now I always think of it as that because it's more fun.

508:

Yeah you would definitely need to build a delay in to be safe. Some pictures will take longer than others (and whatever background processes that are running at the time will affect it)

Most modern applications can be completely driven by keyboard for accessibility reasons.

Save as appears to be ⇧ + ⌘ + S It could work if it already pre-populates the filename with something unique based on the input file. Use the right arrow key to jump to the end, left 4 to get behind the file extension and enter standard template text for the new name

Not sure about selecting, but generally some combination of Tabs, Arrow Keys, and spacebar or enter will get you around to every element in the interface.

509:

hmmm...

comp sci undergraduates from the nearby state university, mayhap?

510:

yup... tone deaf as well forgetting the officially mandated facade being shaped by the crown prince... I'm looking forward to someone making a 'Japanese apology' (AKA spilling your guts)

"US religious freedom delegation cuts short Saudi Arabia visit after rabbi is asked to remove his kippah"

https://lite.cnn.com/2024/03/12/middleeast/us-religious-freedom-saudi-arabia-rabbi-kippah-intl/index.html

511:

Not all name changes are bad. City of Los Angeles ("LA LA Land") was originally "El Pueblo de Nuestra Senora, Reina de los Angeles del Rio Porciuncula." Put that in a two-bit computer...

This might help if references to "Our Lady Queen of Angels" pop up in conjunction with LA.

512:

Save as with default might work (I'll have to rename the files first, I think) but I'm not certain how to make the selection pick the first file on a list, then the second time through the second file, and so forth.

Given I've already reprocessed the raw files for one panorama today, in the background of doing other work, and I only have a couple more I wanted to tackle it's probably less work to do it manually (as compared to finding software, getting it working on an old computer, learning how to use it, etc.).

I'm reminded of that parrot in Douglas Adams' Last Chance to See that saves itself the hassle of sitting on its eggs by digging a 2' deep pit in the ground, filling it with vegetation, laying the eggs on that and then adding another 4' more vegetation, then spends its day adjusting the compost pile to keep the eggs at the right temperature — thus saving itself the hassle of sitting on them. :-)

If the pictures I processed with Affinity are significantly better than those using the Apple decoder than I'll have a decision to make if I decide to reprocess a lot more. I'll know in a couple of days when I finish the panoramas (this is a background project). I think the next step is to verify if the problem is my OS or all newer Apple systems. If the problem is just my computer then I should be able to get it fixed so I'm back to where I was in 2019.

Which reminds me: I have an old MacBook I haven't used since 2019, and I looked at those files using it while I was in Greenland. So I should be able to use it to open and save them as TIFFs. Don't know why I didn't think of this before! I hope it still works. And if it does work, hopefully the repair shop can get my OS fixed so it works on the iMac too. (And if I like the Affinity raw converter more, then I have to decide if the better results are worth the extra time converting.)

514:

Re: '... we’re mostly onto arguing about the best trains and the politics of programming languages.'

Okay - thanks! I'll wait for a plain-language recap and recommendation. Meanwhile, I recently saw this YT video that folks here might finding interesting.

'Keynote by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang at 2024 SIEPR Economic Summit' [Stanford Institute]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEg8cOx7UZk

My take-away hasn't anything to do with the tech described but with the CEO: okay, this guy is the head of one of the best hard-tech outfits on the planet and he comes across as a genuine human being. Immediately my mind skips to another 'biggest techie-related' CEO/founder - this time it's of the world's largest social media outfit - who comes across as a robot. What the hell happened: were they switched at birth by some crazed fairy?

But I do have questions/concerns about the tech described - mostly about the divide/blur between hardware and software and what that means in terms of responsibility/ethics.

Robert Prior @ 461:

Re: 'Hope he's [EC] just too busy with life and family to hang out here.'

Same here - thanks!

Whitroth @ 476:

Re: ' ... but you're our annoyance.'

Sounds familiar, as in: what my parents used to say.

Charlie @ 495:

Re: "Featherstonehaugh" is pronounced "Fan-shaw".

Recall a fellow undergrad by that name, except he pronounced it 'Fen-shaw'. Very good actor, played Bolingbroke (Henry IV) in Richard II. Longest actor's name plus longest character's name. Kinda ironic that this actor-character's name on the (no-budget) standard folded over 8x11 photocopied program also communicated his character's impact in the play/history.

515:

Pigeon @ 507
What about Viriconium then?

516:

yet one more reason to wonder what's going on behind closed doors at Boeing... not that I'm prone to conspiracy theories... nope not me

"Former Boeing whistleblower found dead from apparent ‘self-inflicted’ gunshot wound"

https://lite.cnn.com/2024/03/12/business/former-boeing-whistleblower-dies/index.html

517:

That's not Worcester...

518:

»As for "names to confuse Americans"«

The most-photographed-by-tourists road signs in Denmark are the ones pointing to the city of "Middelfart".

(The names origin is "midpoint of travel" via platdeutsch)

520:

In Aotearoa the equivalent is a place name that is possibly taking the piss:

Taumatawhakatangi­hangakoauauotamatea­turipukakapikimaunga­horonukupokaiwhen­uakitanatahu

It's a compound word as explained by the all-knowing website: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taumatawhakatangi%C2%ADhangakoauauotamatea%C2%ADturipukakapikimaunga%C2%ADhoronukupokaiwhen%C2%ADuakitanatahu

521:

(What a horribly unreadable site...)

Sorry, don't get you. Viriconium to the Romans was apparently Wroxeter, near Shrewsbury. I've not heard of the one on your link, but the word "Worcester" does not seem to appear on the page. I don't see the connection, in either case, apart from the Roman one being on the same river.

I'm mainly used to seeing Worcester in fiction in the works of Ellen Wood. She uses various different made-up names for it, but it is beautifully recognisable as Worcester 150-200 years ago and it's fascinating for the amount of real local history in it.

522:

Looked Ellen Wood (1814-1887) up.

Amazing how someone writing fiction set in the quotidian reality can become an author of historical fiction - just by having their work survive long enough.

523:

As for "names to confuse Americans"

There's also Magdalene college and bridge in Cambridge, pronounced "Maudlin" and anciently spelt Maudlyn. Very anciently: it predates the USA and probably the University too, so not actually devised by snotty academics to mess with American minds. But extremely good for confusing visitors.

See https://www.magd.ox.ac.uk/news/the-linguistic-life-of-an-oxford-student/#:~:text=Magdalen%20takes%20its%20name%20from,in%20the%20contemporary%20spelling%20maudlyn for background (yes that's about the Oxford college, but the name is from elsewhere and further back).

524:

Might written 'USian" English be described as "Simplified English"?

525:

Cheers, this was jolly interesting:

"Magdalen takes its name from the Greek Magdala, the name of the town on the Sea of Galilee (from an Aramaic word meaning 'tower'), from which Mary Magdalen originated. In the Middle Ages this word's pronunciation became anglicised to "maudlin" - as reflected in the contemporary spelling maudlyn. This medieval pronunciation has been retained in the name of the College, even though the spelling has been revised to reflect the Greek origin. The earlier spelling is still found in the related adjective maudlin, now meaning 'sentimental, self-pitying', but originally 'tearful', in reference to traditional images of a lachrymose Mary Magdalen."

Never having heard Mary pronounced that way, nor even any suggestion that one might do so other than as a joke, I always thought MagdaleneMagdalene and Magdalenemaudlin were two different words that happened to be spelt the same, and similarly that Magdalenemaudlin and maudlin were two different words that happened to be pronounced the same. I never considered that all three of them might actually be the same.

I plead the excuse that the idea of "this word's pronunciation bec[oming] anglicised to "maudlin"" is too weird to occur to me without prompting. But now I find myself wanting to set up another Magdalene at another university simply so I can confuse people even more by insisting that this one's pronounced "Matildalin".

It has to be said that there are all sorts of strange notions about that word, such as the college being pronounced one way and the bridge the other, or Cambridge one way and Oxford the other; and I've known people who were actually at the college be unsure or wrong about which to use, so I prefer to let them say it first and then follow the lead.

526:

The name of the town of Milngavie north of Glasgow is pronounced Mulguy. Some old pottery bottles from a Victorian-era midden we dug up near there actually had the name embossed on the front as "Mulguy" (ginger wine or the like, can't remember exactly what was supposed to be in the bottles). We presumed this was a literacy thing of the period, folks with an education would know the proper spelling but Rude Mechanicals and the like would be able to work out the name letter by letter.

527:

Mary M isn't the only religious figure to have become an adjective. Pity poor St Audrey, who was transmuted to tawdry.

There's another weird Cambridge etymology just down the road in Bene't Street. Somehow Saint Benedict lost his 'dic'.

528:

In modern French it's Benoit, so that last one is at least sort of comprehensible as a snapshot of a very early version of the French fork.

529:

Yes, but in the sense of "simpler is better".

But I would be greatly pleased if the speech of USA citizens, which is fine, could just be called "American". No insult is implied, and I do know it's a collection of English dialects. I just think it would simplify descriptions and promote American speech to its proper level. Broad Scots, which is proposed as a distinct language, is in a similar situation.

530:

I'm not sure that's any more comprehensible. Benoît was formerly written Benoist (hence the circumflex) so now you have to explain what happened to the 's'.

Also, French still has feminine Bénédicte, so why didn't she change in the same way?

(yes, I know the ultimate answer is "because language" :-)

531:

518 - Or the German equivalent:-
Q "How long is it from Petting to Fucking?"
A "About 40 minutes given normal traffic."

524 - Arguably the other way round since Noah Webster changed the USian spellings just to make them different from the English ones.

526 - I picked those 3 place names as being well separated geographically and all spelled and pronounced differently.

529 - Scots actually has its own grammar as well as its own vocabulary.

532:
But I would be greatly pleased if the speech of USA citizens, which is fine, could just be called "American". No insult is implied, and I do know it's a collection of English dialects. I just think it would simplify descriptions and promote American speech to its proper level.

I will spare you all and not actually type out my far too overheated rant about culture on the actual island of Ireland being utterly occluded by people insisting on calling Irish-American culture 'Irish' (they are deeply connected but they are different things, that's fine, they're allowed be different but for Christ's sake please admit they're different and call them different things); it is the season for this to get particularly pointed.

533:

In Pennsylvania, the way to Paradise is through Intercourse. Gordonville really should be renamed Climax.

534:

There would be some blowback,likely from Native Americans and Spanish speakers, to name two.

535:

Why not "North American English"?

536:

What would be the standard spelling of "colour" in North American English, taking into account Canada exists?

537:

You obviously need at least two dialects: Canadian English, and Unistat English (to borrow a coinage from Robert Anton Wilson).

538:

You obviously need at least two dialects: Canadian English, and Unistat English (to borrow a coinage from Robert Anton Wilson).

Only if we get to divide up that mess of dialects y'all call English into separate languages and send missionaries over to compile Bibles in each separate dialect. This will help both to spread the Good News and to insure that each infant language isn't suppressed by the increasingly authoritarian capitol and the official English as promulgated by the BBC.

Or we can drop the imperialist silliness and acknowledge that outsiders generally do a shitty job of dictating language purity...

539:

My bad, my only exposure to Canadians is through media, where they sound much closer to residents of the United, for now, States. Personally, regional spelling variations trouble me not at all.

540:

hmmm...

French vs. French-Canadian

... vs. French-influenced New Orleans...?

541:

Tim H. @ 524:

Might written 'USian" English be described as "Simplified English"?

... Mister Webster's English?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noah_Webster#Dictionary

542:

Re: English.

To me, having read Power of Babel, language normally changes, and the job of linguists is to document the changes, not dictate them. Of course, this passivist attitude from an outsider may be why conlang creators sometimes become little authoritarians, and why conlang practitioners often seem to become humorless purity police. Being a creator means being the authority on the creation, and that can cause problems when little outsider punks want to play with it, as they inevitably do.

That said, I think the biggest influences on big languages like English are ignorance and stupidity. The example of ignorance is that when a destitute English major works for an Indian businessman who speaks maybe a thousand words of English as his third language, they use the boss’ English, not the expert’s English, both because of the power dynamic and because communication is the goal, not artistry. Since a large majority of England speakers speak it as a second language, they’re currently a bigger driving force for change in English than native speakers in England are. And if they’re arrogant or ignorant, these outsiders may try to spread the idea that international business English is standard English, and the dialects spoken in the British Isles are non-standard English spoken by minorities.

That’s the problem of ignorance in power.

Stupidity is what I’m wrestling with on this fracking iPad, with its slow autocorrect, limited word choice, pathetic knowledge of vocabulary and grammar, and triply damned cursor that chooses where it thinks it’s supposed to be in the paragraph, not where I put it, and which jumps after about a half second and three letters, further hashing my attempts to edit on the fly. I wish there was some way of taking my frustration out on the programmers who created this, but I don’t want to die in jail, so…..

This inbuilt idiocy also is a force in English and other languages. I won’t be surprised if AI English starts competing with International Business English in shaping “proper English” going forward. If it does, the heirs of Shakespeare will be reduced to rapping their art and spray painting it on the walls, rather than teaching the masses to use the full power and beauty of the language.

543:

Tim H. @ 535:

Why not "North American English"?

Nah. That wouldn't simplify anything.

544:

You wrote: "...the job of linguists is to document the changes, not dictate them..."

I offer la Académie Française.

545:

But la Académie Française simply attempts to dictate how French is officially spoken and written in France, under the pretext that there are no dialects within France or that Francophone countries outside France care a sou for the Academy when they're not talking to the French government. How many other linguists even do that?

546:

"I offer la Académie Française."

You think les immortels are linguists?

Wikipedia: "The Académie has included numerous politicians, lawyers, scientists, historians, philosophers, and senior Roman Catholic clergymen. Five French heads of state have been members [...] - and one foreign head of state, the poet Léopold Sédar Senghor of Senegal, who was also the first African elected, in 1983.Other famous members include Voltaire; Montesquieu; Victor Hugo; Alexandre Dumas, fils; Émile Littré; Louis Pasteur; Louis de Broglie; and Henri Poincaré.

Reading how they are elected, it's more like the Order of the Garter than any academic (in the modern sense) institution.

547:

Wait, y'all are claiming that the Academie won't send out nuns to whack you with rulers for mangling French, and using Anglicisms? I am appalled.

548:

if the speech of USA citizens, which is fine, could just be called "American"

I assume you're being sarcastic. But if not.

People north of the 48th parallel and south of the Rio Grande River (all the way to Antarctica) would take exception to "American".

On my dealings with Canadian English speakers there are at least 3 flavors that I've experienced. West coast, Toronto, and the plains. And that language centered in Quebec is NOT what they speak in France. Related like cousins but not the same. People in the US who learn French (as in France) generate giggles in Montreal.

And in the good ole USA, What people speak at each end of Pennsylvania is different. From the rest of the country. Understandable but different. ("I can't go tonight I have to rhet up my house.) Nawlins can seem to be another world. Then there are the islands of South Carolina. Or Brooklyn (a chunk of New York City). Or Detroit. Or .... And people from Minnesota and Mississippi can't always communicate although both are speaking English.

Now there is something called TV English which is a dialect that tries to not offend anyone in the US which is likely what most people in Europe hear more than anything else. But not all that many people speak it day to day.

549:

Your iPad.

and triply damned cursor that chooses where it thinks it’s supposed to be in the paragraph, not where I put it, and which jumps after about a half second and three letters, further hashing my attempts to edit on the fly.

How old is it? It seems that the screen touch detectors are wearing out and will likely only get worse.

550:

Of course we could all standardize on with Yogi Berra as our guide. With a side dose of Casey Stengel.

Two US baseball players known for their phraseology.

551:

Considering the number of -sters in Pennsylvania (Chester, Chichester, West Chester, Lancaster). I wonder in a few hundred years if linguists/historians will be wondering how the Romans got across the Atlantic.

:)

Can anyone give me a history/translation of Lancashire? The name of "posh" subdivision near me. I keep telling my wife it is Gaelic for "sheep shit" (it makes her laugh).

552:

Emus on the loose in Pfafftown

[[ link disabled for apparently hosting malware - mod ]]

553:

Any idea of the origins of "Lititz" in the state? My wife has relatives who live there now.

554:

Mr. Tim @ 551:

Considering the number of -sters in Pennsylvania (Chester, Chichester, West Chester, Lancaster). I wonder in a few hundred years if linguists/historians will be wondering how the Romans got across the Atlantic.

I wish I knew where my old high school Latin teacher was so I could run that one past her.

:)

Can anyone give me a history/translation of Lancashire? The name of "posh" subdivision near me. I keep telling my wife it is Gaelic for "sheep shit" (it makes her laugh).

I'm pretty sure "shire" is an old name for "county". There's a Lancaster County in Pennsylvania & according to Wikipedia "Lancashire" is a Ceremonial county in England, UK originally(?) ruled (governed?) by the Duke of Lancaster.

Ceremonial counties is an interesting tid-bit I hadn't encountered before; almost as weird as some government stuff that goes on in the U.S.

The subdivision developers probably chose the name because it sounded "posh" to them too.

555:

See #507 - it's not Gaelic, it's what was English before it was English. Lune (the river the town is on) + ceastre (used to be a Roman fort) gets you Lancaster; Lancaster + Shire + a bit of tidying up gets you Lancashire, the administrative region that Lancaster is the "capital" of.

I might guess that "sheep shit" in Gaelic is something like "caca na caorach", but I would be prepared to be laughed at.

556:

L'Académie Française si vous plais.

557:

Wasn't sure, never took French, just tried to use it here (and in stories).

558:

Maybe where you are, but almost everyone I've ever heard talking speaks std./tv/radio English. Even most of the folks in Texas.

559:

I have never read Roald Dahl or watched the movies. He was one of the very few authors banned in the house I grew up in, for egregious anti-semitism. And I have seen no reason to bother since: he was also a horrible piece of shit as a human being, and I feel no more urge to read him now than I do to bother with J. K. Rowling.

560:

Conlang creators: they are in basically the same position as your language teachers at school. They know the rules, you don't. So if you cock up what you think you've learned the rules are, telling you what you did wrong and explaining again how to get it right is what they're there for.

It would be dead handy if Tolkien could manage to come back for a bit and provide some feedback on what people have made out about the many languages he evolved from poking through the backs of his envelopes and anything else of his that is made of paper. There's so much posted about it on the internet based on such minimal material that I can't help thinking very little of it can be trusted.

Indian businessman: I'd be regarding talking to him as a process which would necessarily involve explaining things he didn't understand and effectively teaching him English a bit at a time. At the same time I'd be keen to pick up any bits of his own language that he might use (while hoping it's one of the more widely applicable ones).

As regards plain ordinary communication, I find a lot of second-language people are better at English than a lot of native speakers, because they actually care about trying to get it right. And even when they don't, their errors are less grotesque than the kind of things you see from a native speaker with an excessively unaccommodating arsability threshold.

The hideous crap used in business contexts which is optimised for out-of-band signalling of tribal markers with no regard for the comprehensibility of the in-band data doesn't count as anything other than an abomination. I've had plenty both of non-spam emails and of letters on paper which I have wanted to send back marked "Please remember to use English when writing to me" in red biro, with further annotations such as "where is the comma?", "missing verb" and "what the fuck does this mean?" sprinkled appropriately throughout the text.

561:

nope... you're thinking of Boston-based nuns who make a habit of knuckle wacking

whereas French nuns will punish you by watering your wine and if ever you should whine about that they'll force you to drink zinfandel

{ I'll see myself out }

562:

Where was it apparent at that time? I have read C&TCF, plus the sequel and a few of his other books, and I don't remember any such content, or even just the word "Jew". I thought that, along with him being an arsehole in general, was something that only became known once he was dead and people who had known him personally stopped worrying what they said about him, and this brought about a wash of "eurgh what have we been giving our kids to read" reactions from people who had never suspected it.

563:

ah... yes...

"when reach a fork in the road, take it"

564:

And in the good ole USA, What people speak at each end of Pennsylvania is different. From the rest of the country. Understandable but different. ("I can't go tonight I have to rhet up my house.) Nawlins can seem to be another world. Then there are the islands of South Carolina. Or Brooklyn (a chunk of New York City). Or Detroit. Or .... And people from Minnesota and Mississippi can't always communicate although both are speaking English.

True among white people over ~60 and/or in rural areas. Somewhat true but heavily diluted among white Americans between ~35 and 60 and in suburban areas. Even more diluted among under 30s. Over the last decade, I've worked with many Millennials and Zoomers who grew up in the South, the Upper Midwest, and even Brooklyn yet have almost no trace of a regional accent.

What fascinates me is that Black English (technical term: African-American Vernacular English; formerly "Ebonics") is largely uniform everywhere in the U.S.

Now there is something called TV English which is a dialect that tries to not offend anyone in the US which is likely what most people in Europe hear more than anything else. But not all that many people speak it day to day.

"TV English" aka "General American" is actually a real accent. Its natural turf is roughly the area around Kansas City and Omaha. Supposedly, it was chosen back in the early days of broadcast TV because it was an accent the rest of the country could consistently understand.

565:

link to malware

566:

Only if we get to divide up that mess of dialects y'all call English into separate languages and send missionaries over to compile Bibles in each separate dialect

Resulting in what would surely become known as "the oi cunts bible" when it was translated into Australien.

567:

The USA has a very loose understanding of "harmless". I assume that translates to "does not have a gun" in traditional english. Emus are more than capable of disembowelling the sort of idiot who thinks they're harmless, and even an exploratory peck can leave a bruise.

568:

Spring is sprung here in North Carolina. I made my second foray out onto the Greenways.

I have to be careful to NOT overdo it because I'm not as fit as I once was and getting back into has to be nice & easy (never mind what Tina Turner says) or I'll hurt myself and make it even harder.

But I got in a good half hour's walk today.

569:

Howard NYC @ 565:

[replied to ... comment from JohnS]

link to malware

I hope not. It's from a local TV station in Greensboro NC.

... but if so, moderators please delete the comment.

570:

Any idea of the origins of "Lititz" in the state? My wife has relatives who live there now.

From https://lititzpa.com/about/town/

"Lititz, which was named after a Bohemian Castle near the village of Kunvald."

BTW, when I lived there, the Michigan weather presenters loved to give the relative temperatures of Heaven & Hell (both Michigan towns). Heaven was usually warmer.

571:

"In Aotearoa the equivalent is a place name that is possibly taking the piss:"

I would consider a more fitting equivalent to be Shag Point, which yes I have been to.

Note for those unfamiliar with our birdlife, a shag (or Kawau) is a Southern cormorant.

JHomes

572:

Over the last decade, I've worked with many Millennials and Zoomers who grew up in the South, the Upper Midwest, and even Brooklyn yet have almost no trace of a regional accent.

I suspect that them growing up in a much more media surrounded environment than those of us older has a lot to do with this. In the 70s when I was a teen and older, AM and FM radio with local DJ's was most of my media consumption. And they were all local. Even if you still listen to OTA radio these days, it is likely done in a studio in Nashville, Chicago, LA, or NYC by pros with neutral accents.

Maybe I noticed more regionalness from all of my traveling around the US in the 80s then the 2010s.

I still have some not so nice memories of my cousins from Detroit visiting (all of us were pre-teens) and them wanting to drink "sodie pop" and while asking use to speak "hillbilly" so they could laugh at us.

573:

Let's not forget Condom in France...

574:

Absolutely not taking the piss, the place is actually owned by my whanau. Has been acknowledged as the longest place name in the world since I was a moko.

575:

it asked for permission to install * something * by way of a prove you are not a robot sort of a thing

576:

CORRECTION: these emu are not 'one of those[1]' wrong kinds and therefore not a threat TO 'the right kinds' of folk

[1] jew, black, woman, etc... all those uppity wrong folk who are demanding equal rights

577:

...and once I again I forgot to append addendum of { SCARCASM }

lest anyone mistake me for a White Christian Nationalist Ammosexual

578:

I'm not going to repeat what Roald Dahl said - during his lifetime, he went on record (in the New Statesman, among other places) to say some disgusting stuff.

A simple google search will let you know some of his despicable opinions.

579:

I still have some not so nice memories of my cousins from Detroit visiting (all of us were pre-teens) and them wanting to drink "sodie pop" and while asking use to speak "hillbilly" so they could laugh at us.

While I lived near there, I usually pronounced Detroit as "De-Twa", since it was founded by the French (it was a fur trading post, I believe).

Most people didn't get the joke...

BTW, not a big fan of crossing 8 mile. Were they really from Detroit or a suburb?

580:

it asked for permission to install * something * by way of a prove you are not a robot sort of a thing

I got a request to instal Flash Player, which I ignored because I dislike Adobe and don't want their software on my of my computers.

581:

I meant could be in the sense of "sounds as though it is but it isn't". Sorry it was ambiguous.

A bit like the very serious German government departments with very serious long names where you might be tempted to describe them as "ridiculously long" but you shouldn't. And then you meet the equally serious English speaking government Press Secretary to the Junior Shadow Minister for Marine Reserve Border Negotiations* and realise that sometimes a long name is just a long name.

(* said shadow minister being part of the war department because border negotiations always are. Just ask the UK about their wee fishy haggling thing with the EU)

582:

I got a request to instal Flash Player

A big red flag there, since Flash has been unsupported by all the browsers and Adobe for years. It was just too insecure (and apparently could not be fixed)

583:

No worries. They've only just won a court case against the pakeha farmer next door who had a sign on his property and is believed to have been charging people to access the site via his property -- even though it wasn't on his property. People, they suck.

584:

That saga is still going on? I'm pretty sure that was a problem decades ago?

I got interested at one point because someone was selling off @Taumatawhakatangi­hangakoauauotamatea­turipukakapikimaunga­horonukupokaiwhen­uakitanatahu.co.nz email addresses (which are technically valid but many, many systems refuse to accept them)

585:

That was about 10 years later. I said at that time, ie. the period when C&CTF came out and Charlie was of an age to be reading it, when AFAIK RD was known simply as a popular children's author, and nobody had any means of finding out what he personally thought about anything apart from speculative inference from the text of his books.

586:

BTW, not a big fan of crossing 8 mile. Were they really from Detroit or a suburb?

I visited when I was about 5 and again when I had just turned 9. Not sure.

The first time with my grandmother and her husband who were living in a 1940s or earlier house based on my memory of the design. He was an retired machinist at the auto plants.

The second time with my cousins out in the burbs. This was 63 I think. They were in the burbs of the times but where, I have no idea. Houses likely built in the later 50s or early 60s. When Detroit was the place to move to as it was the future of Merican life. I'm glad we didn't move.

587:

A big red flag there, since Flash has been unsupported by all the browsers and Adobe for years. It was just too insecure (and apparently could not be fixed)

Too cute by half domain. (.lightning) (99% of the sites hosted by all those new names are pure crap and/or malware seeds.)

As to Flash not being able to be fixed. Well. Adobe fixed it over 30 times as best I can recall the last full year of support. [big fat grin]

588:

Not valid. Domain name labels are limited to 63 characters.

589:

How old is it? It seems that the screen touch detectors are wearing out and will likely only get worse.

While it’s an old iPad, I’m pretty sure it’s a software problem. If the hardware is the problem, it’s because it’s trying to predict what I’m going to type, and where I’m supposed to be typing, and failing at both much of the time because it’s new bloatware running on old hardware, and Apple thinks that enshittifying it might make me buy a new iPad sooner.

My original point still stands. To the degree that we have to adapt our language to type it effectively on a “smart” keyboard, the computer is shaping what we say and how we say it. This isn’t a new problem, as everything from writing to printing presses to telegraphy has shaped how we express ourselves.

590:

570 - I have to ask, did they regularly report (in Winter) that "Hell has frozen over"?

571 - From Wikipedia, "The European shag or common shag (Gulosus aristotelis) is a species of cormorant."

591:

When my dad was a kid his family relocated to London for a couple of years. My grandfather was going to LSE and my grandmother was nursing her ailing parent. My dad and his eldest brother attended a posh all boys school, and for reasons lost to history their 13 year old younger brother spent a year at a posh all girls school.

'All girls and Pete', as he describes it. Something of a terrifying if formative experience for him, I understand.

592:

sadly... that's not what gets installed

...malware

593:

likely... signage to indicate...

"You Are Now Leaving Hell"

594:

oh good... Buck Rogers to the rescue...

...maybe?

between cheap drones ("RPVs") for remote mode of attack against expensive hardware and (assuming this is real) lasers guided by unblinking automation on the defensive, warfare just got redefined

https://lite.cnn.com/2024/03/13/europe/britain-air-defense-laser-dragonfire-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

595:

since Flash has been unsupported by all the browsers and Adobe for years.

I believe Adobe removed it from all of their servers years ago. And started a up front and behind the scenes campaign to remove it from the Internet. At least "real" copies.

Near the end if you the later versions they would uninstall themselves as of a certain date. So if you had auto update on, it would vanish from your computer.

596:

Note: this is nowhere near "Shag Rock" - in Christchurch (tho' has been locally renamed as "Shag Pile" following the Feb 2011 earthquakes. Refer: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapanui_Rock

597:

Emus? Just be thankful it isn't/wasn't a Cassowary!

Mr Tim @ 570
About a year back, I caught a Radio 3 (NOT "4") weather forecast saying "... and Fife 4 & Forfar 5" ...
short pause .. "We've been waiting years to be able to say that!"

598:

Also note that Adobe Flash Player was discontinued years ago so anything claiming to want to install Adobe Flash Player is at minimum shady as fuck and more likely than not malware (because it used to be one of the commonest ways to fool the gullible into running a Windows installer on their PC).

599:

I gather he was letting it all hang out from the early 1960s onwards. Before my time, in other words.

600:

Yeah. I was mostly noting that I was apparently seeing something different than Howard, and that it was a pretty poor scam as it was asking to install something from a horrible company.

I'm more curious how malware ended up on a local news site. Is the site compromised? Or is it using an ad exchange that allows malware-carrying ads? Or something else…

A concern for JohnS if it's one of his local news stations.

601:

And in other news:

Starship/Super Heavy didn't blow up on the third try.

(Well, mostly, not sure what happened to Starship on re-entry)

602:

Ad exchanges are indeed the commonest source of malware these days. Even if they vet the ads initially, they don't host them -- so you can buy ad placement, let them look at your video or javascript or whatever, then serve something else to your actual customers (by monitoring which IP address you're serving and pointing requests from the exchange company to something innocuous).

603:

From the top:

Starship launched successfully, and hot staged successfully. Upper stage burned to scheduled main engine cut-out (on a planned sub-orbital trajectory).

Superheavy survived hot staging, then survived re-entry burn. Signal was lost during the landing burn, a couple of kilometers above the Atlantic. (It was scheduled to make a destructive splash-down so this happened in the last few seconds of flight.)

While in space, Starship successfully opened and closed its payload bay doors. It also reportedly transferred propellant between on-board tanks, a necessary milestone NASA wanted, on the way to in-orbit refueling.

Starship skipped a scheduled test of the capacity for a raptor engine re-light in vacuum. It's not clear why.

Starship began a planned unpowered re-entry over the Indian ocean. Returned some amazing 4K video footage of the plasma field building up around the fins, and presumably a metric ton of telemetry.

Signal was lost via TDRS and Starlink simultaneously about 66km above the Earth, during re-entry. No announcement as to the cause, but the vehicle was declared lost about ten minutes later.

Note that this is the largest single object ever placed in orbit, and the first test of hypersonic re-entry with a new heat shield. So losing the vehicle isn't entirely unexpected.

But it successfully demonstrated ability to reach orbit in expendable mode, to cycle the payload bay, and so on. Which is as much as ULA's Vulcan, India's PSLV, Delta IV Heavy, or pretty much any other heavy lift vehicle to date.

And they've got the next four more Superheavy boosters built and ready to go as soon as they analyse the anomalies on this flight and come up with fixes.

604:

Ship was rolling for most of its coasting phase, and looked to be tumbling as it started re-entry. At one point it also appeared to be coming in sideways from the way the plasma was going so probably wasn't in the right attitude. There's also speculation that the payload door didn't close (the test was described as "complete", not "successful") so if it was sideways plasma could have got into places it definitely wasn't wanted.

605:

others better at words have described the web-internet-broswers-etc as a complex ecology which ultimately attracts parasites much as biological entities such as you 'n me are each an all-you-can-infect-buffet attracting viruses-fungi-mold-bacteria until an immune system evolved to fight back...

an unending arms race, both biological as well as cyber

difference being in a bio-ecology the fungi-etc are operating on mindless instinct whereas cyber-ecology it is maliciousness plus greed plus boredom plus ideology motivating highly intelligent humans with free will and zero morals

if there's one reason for me to hope for any GASI (generalized artificial super intelligence, yup another new unnecessary FLA)... it is to be both an immune system responsive enough as a shield and viciously aggressive at hunting down malware authors to publish their names-locations-faces and if LEO does nothing... well there's always possibility of constructing as many T800s as necessary to drag 'em into court rooms...

so... if ever there is a SkyNet-equivalent it will be a terrifying nightmare to haunt malicious hackers as it hunts 'em to protect itself from harm... whereas the rest of us will pay US$19.95 annually for proactive protection... doing so willingly

606:

603 and 604 - Thank yous to Carlie and Vulch (sequentially) for a much more detailed account of the Starship test flight than the Ingurlundshire Broadcasting Company (BBC) managed circa 13:30GMT (time stamp used by Charlie's server). Add the BBC to your list of "sources to not be unreservedly trusted", at least on stories with some form of tech content.

607:

Note to Charlie re potential spammer attack surface: You've closed comments on "Worldcon in the news", but they're still open on "Same bullshit, new tin" before that, which is pretty dead now. Memory glitch?

608:

Paws & everybody
Correction:
Add ANY OF the BBCNational News sources to your list of "sources to not be unreservedly trusted", at leastESPECIALLY on stories with some form of sci/tech/engineering content.
It is not, incidentally, "malice" but "just" incompetence & laziness - which might, actually, be worse!

Pigeon
Maybe because there is an unending supply of new bullshit?

609:

Not all professionals. I listen to streaming media, and that includes WUMB (Boston), and WXPN (Philly), and all the djs, etc, speak "std English".

610:

Flash? Really? Adobe discontinue all support 31 Dec 2020. And no browser's supported it since before that.

611:

Interestingly, I don't think any of the networks carried it live.

It was on at least half-dozen YouTube "channels" though. Annoyingly, those live streams get out of sync with reality pretty regularly (based on the lack of sync between the four I was watching).

One thing I heard mentioned on one of them (it was difficult to listen to all four at once), as Charlie mentioned Starship is now a possible expendable rocket. That means that SpaceX could start using it to deploy StarLink 2.0 sats during these test launches so they can use it to generate some revenue. It would also prove out the ship for customers that need launch something really big.

612:

But those laser dragon breath weapons can only be fired from Cymru, unless the Normans and the Anglo-Saxons want to give the island back to the Britons... who are, of course, the Red Dragon.

613:

So, I guess it can be summed up as "I fired a rocket, and it blew up. I fired another rocket, and it launched, then blew up. I fired a third one, it launched, went up, then burned up and fell over into the swamp. But the fourth...

614:

Well, yes, but then Skynet will be the subject of a hostile takeover, and then they'll start raising the price from $19.99 to $39.98, then 78.96, and surcharges of $100...

615:

570 - I have to ask, did they regularly report (in Winter) that "Hell has frozen over"?

And ever other obvious joke :)

616:

I listen to streaming media

So do I 90% of the time. NOW. But I didn't grow up on it. What I heard 99% of the time was local windage.

617:

It's not a discussion place as such, but there are a lot of interesting questions/answers about Ye Olden Dayes here:

https://retrocomputing.stackexchange.com/

618:

if ever there is a SkyNet-equivalent it will be a terrifying nightmare to haunt malicious hackers as it hunts 'em to protect itself from harm

Our Gracious Host has a book about more or less this scenario. It is called "Rule 34" (which incidentally is also my license plate)

619:

They need to have a successful on-orbit engine restart before they can start carrying payloads. The ship would need to be in a proper orbit before it can deploy anything, and the test flights so far have been in orbits that narrowly avoid lithobraking but do intersect the atmosphere. The ship is far too heavy and robust to risk an uncontrolled re-entry.

620:

Someone on another site has as their avatar pic a photo of the station name board with icicles dangling from it and snow wherever it can stick.

That's the Norwegian one, though, so it's probably brighter than the Michigan one unless that was named by Norwegian settlers too.

621:

David L @ 548:

"if the speech of USA citizens, which is fine, could just be called "American""

I assume you're being sarcastic. But if not.

People north of the 48th parallel and south of the Rio Grande River (all the way to Antarctica) would take exception to "American".

Thinking about it, Canadians DO speak "American" English (at least those who don't speak "American" French in Quebec do)

... same as Mexicans (and other Latin Americans) speak "American" Spanish and the Brazilians speak "American" Portuguese.

Maybe call it New World "English" (or whatever ...)

Tangent thought: What language did the Vikings who settled Greenland & visited Vinland before the Italians (Columbus, Vespucci et al) got here speak?

622:

@ 552

Thank you and I apologize for that.

623:

JHomes @ 571:

"In Aotearoa the equivalent is a place name that is possibly taking the piss:"

I would consider a more fitting equivalent to be Shag Point, which yes I have been to.

Note for those unfamiliar with our birdlife, a shag (or Kawau) is a Southern cormorant.

JHomes

... the mascot of the "Pentax Discuss Mailing List" as well as the official dance of "Carolina" Beach Music (from Virginia Beach to Jacksonville FL)

Alabama - Dancin', Shaggin' On The Boulevard

625:

Musth does seem to have missed the point about remotely recording sensor outputs and suchlike techniques. The idea is that if the machine does end up exploding, then at least you've still got some data out of the effort and it wasn't a total loss. It doesn't mean that that's how you're actually supposed to do it.

As we see, it is thought that it may have managed to close the pod bay doors but did not then lock them properly. But they don't actually know because they then vaporised it before they could have a proper look. So they have little more than guesswork to tell them first whether that is what happened, and then whether something broke and if so what and why did it break, or was it just a pen stuck in the works that had fallen out of someone's shirt pocket when they bent over. You can't expect to get that sort of thing solely by remote instrumentation. It's one thing to arrange to record the fairly limited scope of the data you expect from things going right or nearly so, but it's totally impractical to set instruments to watch over every possible little thing that might go wrong, especially for things like this where even the most trivial of faults can still easily result in complete destruction of all the unrecorded evidence.

Every engineer is allowed the occasional firework display during the stage of figuring out how to make the thing work, but when it happens on nearly every test it makes it look like you're nothing but a web developer.

626:

Howard NYC @ 575:

it asked for permission to install * something * by way of a prove you are not a robot sort of a thing

I didn't get that. I got the story from "Google News" & just used the link it gave me.

Anyway, I see the link has been deleted & again I apologize.

627:

Robert Prior @ 600:

Yeah. I was mostly noting that I was apparently seeing something different than Howard, and that it was a pretty poor scam as it was asking to install something from a horrible company.

I'm more curious how malware ended up on a local news site. Is the site compromised? Or is it using an ad exchange that allows malware-carrying ads? Or something else…

A concern for JohnS if it's one of his local news stations.

I think the "ad exchange" thingy might explain why I didn't see any indication of malware.

I use a HOSTS file with an extensive list of "advertising" sites looped back to localhost (127.0.0.1), so if a site is on my list it never gets called.

https://winhelp2002.mvps.org/hosts.htm

The site with malware is probably on the list.

628:

There was a camera inside the cargo bay watching the door, and if there weren't several latch sensors I'd be extremely surprised. The ship was transmitting telemetry to the ground via Starlink, booster and ship both had two Starlink systems onboard. Trying to build an on board data recorder that will withstand a break up and re-entry, and be findable in a large expanse of ocean is very very hard

Back when they had the inflight RUD with a cargo Dragon shortly after launch, the NASA component of the investigation team came in to the first meeting expecting to be going over paper listings of a limited number of telemetry sensors and data points for many weeks trying to find the cause. They were astounded when the SpaceX side told them what had happened complete with supporting evidence. There are multiple microphones in each propellant tank, and the ones in the 2nd stage LOX tank had recorded a snapping sound. The slight delay between the different microphones enabled SpaceX to work out the location of the sound and testing the batch of support rods remaining in Hawthorne showed the manufacturer had been skimping on testing as several failed with the same snapping noise.

SpaceX are very good at telemetry, their rockets are instrumented up the wazoo and they collect far more data from each flight than any other rocket manufacturer.

629:

This was Test Flight 3 in the development program of a very new and different space launch vehicle.

TF 1 was a bit of a disaster because of the launch pad bit, but TF 2 and TF 3 look to be good progress in a "build some, test some" program. Let's see how TF 4 and TF 5 go before making any major judgements.

630:

oh yeah?

which tech bro will go toe-to-toe with a hyperalloy combat chassis lacking the smallest grain of mercy!?

nor would the MBA vermin from Harvard ever risk their snowflake selves in such a manner

I'm looking at the ultimate in 'hopepunk'... a friendly, GASI which rather than slaughtering humanity has decided we will make interesting pets and should be provided with a habitat suited for our ongoing survival... no more microplastics, an end to pineapple on pizza, identifying all violence prone police, investigating medical malpractice, publishing the names of serial killers, etc

631:

no need but thanks

we are all targeted by parasites

bio 'n cyber

today you got to be the web eqv to Typhoid Mary

{ there's a pun there if only my brain was not slipping into long covid fog again }

632:
  • stunned silence *

oooooopsie

633:

They spoke Old Norse. Basically Icelandic.

634:

In German there's always the fun question of whether you sort the letters with umlauts with the "base" letter (e.g., ä with a), or after the z in the alphabet.

Both are wrong. The second is particularly wrong. (I think it's an artifact of sorting letters by their ASCII-values; and I encountered it in sloppily written software on 8bit-computers like the C64.)

'ä' is a ligature of 'ae'. In very old books you will see it printed as an 'a' with a small 'e' on top. This small 'e' then mutated into the now familiar two dots. Therefore the only correct way to sort it is to put it between 'ad' and 'af'. And you may sort 'ae' and 'ä' mixing with each other, because they're equal. The same goes for 'ö' (ligature of 'oe') and ü (ligature of 'ue').

Ditto questions about where to sort the ß.

It's quite similar, because 'ß' is also a ligature, namely one of long 's' and round 's' (in Roman fonts like the one on this blog; in Fraktur fonts it's a ligature of long 's' and tailed 'z'). Originally it represented both an 'sz'-sound and an 'ss'-sound. Both merged over time, and today it only represents double-'s'. Thus it's sorted exactly like 'ss'. (Interesting tidbit: written Swiss German doesn't have an 'ß'. All German and Austrian 'ß' are rendered as 'ss' in Swiss texts.)

635:

I believe that's the plan -- look for Starlink 2 deployment on the next test flight. (Assuming it wasn't a jammed-open payload bay door that killed Starship on re-entry on this flight.)

636:

That is actually how rocket development used to proceed, routinely, in the before-times -- before the post-Apollo incredibly risk-averse commercial management took over the private space sector.

Ariane 4 lost several rockets while learning, and they lost the first Ariane 5 (and that was an incremental development from its predecessors). Something like 9 Atlas rockets blew up in a row in the 1950s and early 60s; same with the Soviet Soyuz and relatives.

When you incrementally upgrade a bird rather than developing a whole new one, the loss rate drops rapidly. Saturn V was a development of SIB and SI which in turn built on the old Jupiter-C, hence the apparent low loss rate ... even so, they nearly lost a couple of early Saturn V launches due to pogoing.

Shuttle should never have flown: thing was a death trap (as witness the two out of five hull losses during the program).

637:

"testing the batch of support rods remaining in Hawthorne showed the manufacturer had been skimping on testing"

...which will be remembered for a very long time? But the past is a foreign country, and besides, the engineer is dead.

638:

palate cleanser

join me in a moment of genius and ROFLing

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/tEZlCp4hRhg?feature=share

639:

It's been a long road indeed, but finally over. The wheels of justice etc. etc.

640:

This was the first flight with the payload bay doors and payload dispenser installed. So there's that.

Also, airliners have door open/closed sensors all over the place: I find it inconceivable that Starship didn't have similar sensors on the payload door (and probably an HD camera pointed at it from inside as well as the one outside, just because they had so much bandwidth to burn).

641:

Ah yes, but you're talking about where people should put the umlauted letter, not where they actually put it in a nominally alphabetised list.

642:

Final update to the Willy Experience: Props from botched Willy Wonka event raise over £2,000 for Palestinian aid charity: Glasgow record shop Monorail Music auctioned the props on eBay after they were discovered in a bin outside the warehouse where event took place.

643:

And thus the scam cycle is complete. Monorail Music's ebay pictures did look similar to the photos from the event, but not the same. Both heavily influenced by an image over a year old. This etsy image was the earliest non-dodgy source I could find

https://web.archive.org/web/20220930191218/https://i.etsystatic.com/31084294/r/il/1eda5a/4084020320/il_340x270.4084020320_k9oc.jpg

Who's to say who got what out of which skip?

The Guardian never bothered to cite the dodgy source everyone else used about the upcoming film, nor did most of them spend 5 minutes to realize that while "Kaledonia Pictures" is a funny name, it didn't exist.

I will say though, I am more interested than I ever would have been in what is happening with the Tasmanian election now.

644:

Scott Manley's video shows some footage from the camera on the inside looking out. He discusses the transition to vacuum inside the bay at some length, including the bit where the ship failed to close th pod bay doors.

645:

So maybe that's why Hal wouldn't open them.

I'll go now.

646:

»the web-internet-broswers-etc as a complex ecology which ultimately attracts parasites«

Being somewhat intimately involved in this, I would say that is the least of the problems.

The one word you will see thrown around all the time is "privacy", but they never specify who's privacy.

As a general rule you can assume that it is not so much about the end user's privacy as about certain big companies wanting total privacy from independent researchers and governments, to invade the lives of consumers as they deem most profitable.

I still wont be the least surprised if HTTP/3 gets banned and blocked on national security grounds in jurisdictions which a competent government.

647:

"Wonky"?
More like utterly effing bonkers ...
What is it?
Our misgovernment's "extremism" list/criteria ... because, someone/no-one has actually THOUGHT about this.
BY DEFINITION, both christianity & islam claim to be the ONLY, ONE, TRUE religion ... all else are evil &/or misguided & people who do not follow the one (our) "true" way are vile heretics & unbelievers & will be eternally cast into the outer darkness of suffering ... or at least, that's the official published line, no matter how much they try to lie & cover-up about it.
Excuse my bitter cynicism ...

648:

Not that this would fly, but I can fantasize some (dis)gruntled English teacher would start this section of the course with "Romeo and Juliet is the story of how an 18 year-old boy lured a 13 year-old away from her family, resulting in six deaths, including the perp and his deluded victim. We're going to study how Shakespeare made this plot into one of the more durable pieces of English literature."

This book follows that plot "Fair Rosaline"

https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B0BGL87GPR

649:

welcome to the new normal:

"The best way to stay safe during a nocturnal tornado threat is to have multiple ways to receive severe weather warnings. Make sure emergency alerts are enabled on your smartphone. Charge devices ahead of time and set phones or alarms on a loud volume so you’re not caught unaware."

huh... and here I thought the days of villages posting sentries on overnight shifts to watch for attacks by hungry wolves was long gone

https://lite.cnn.com/2024/03/14/weather/storms-gorilla-hail-snow-denver-climate/index.html

650:

{ set snark on }

you... you... heretic!

how dare you blaspheme the One True Faith™ thusly!?

of course every religion deems theirs as being that OTF™ so there's been rather loud discussions[1] held upon which is indeed that "one"

====

[1] difficult to hear words proclaimed by clergy over the screams of unarmed civilians

651:

Oh, those extremism criteria: funny how criterion number 1 somehow doesn't apply to the Conservative Party, isn't it?

653:

It's bollocks, of course.

That's some railgun test track -- and even though it's evacuated, whatever leaves the end of it is going to hit solid air at Mach 5, which is not going to do its structural integrity any good. But in any even, the payload it's specc'd for is a third that of Starship, which as we saw yesterday is now flying and making orbital velocity, and it needs a huge amount of ground infrastructure. So I'm calling this a grift for venture capital funding, like a lot of space industry epiphenomena these days.

654:

When you incrementally upgrade a bird rather than developing a whole new one, the loss rate drops rapidly.

Assuming that the incremental development is done properly. Ariane 5 was the extreme counter-example.

On a personal note, my remaining career is tightly bound to Ariane 6 not being a firework display. My current, main project (PLATO) is scheduled for launch in 2026 on an early flight of Ariane 6. If it should fail at launch, then there won't be a chance to fly a replacement PLATO (if that is even considered) until after I retire.

655:

welcome to the new normal... and here I thought the days of villages posting sentries on overnight shifts to watch for attacks by hungry wolves was long gone

I honestly do not understand what your point is. Are you saying tornadoes are the new wolves?

656:

For those interested, the SpaceX coverage of yesterdays launch has been uploaded to YouTube by a reputable source. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9r5yupEUs4U and spin about 33 minutes in to avoid the prelaunch waffle.

657:

I looked this up, and The Guardian has this quoted: 'an ideology based on violence, hatred or intolerance'.

I'd think that the Conservative Party thinks it itself is not based on any of those but only pure logic, so the criteria don't apply. If you don't promote that kind of an idelogy, everything seems to be just fine.

From outside of the Conservative Party things might be different and some people might have the opinion that the extremism criteria apply to the Conservative Party. Like, all objective observers.

658:

I have had the exact same thought.

659:

nope... it is a cover story

any lump coming off the end of the railgun will be narrow in cross section to reduce drag, unusually dense and comprised of cheap and/or common materials so there can be many of 'em lathed in quick succession...

a thin coating of an alloy such as temperature resistant stainless steel over a core of deleted uranium

surface being subtly scored to promote rotation in order to spin stabilize it

never mind achieving stable LEO... it will be able to intercept anything in LEO albeit with a rather splashy high energy release rather than quietly dock...

as to locales over the horizon, each payload sent will be trackable for the ten minutes of unpowered flight... and then we'll know where it touched down by way of a non-nuclear mushroom cloud

stop thinking spacecraft and Star Trek... start worrying about an arms race to build sub-orbital artillery capable of smacking stationary (and slow moving) targets from 15,000 km... sort of a low budget version of the unlamented 1980s "Star Wars" (aka: Strategic Defense Initiative) but fixated upon offense rather than defense

office buildings, river-spanning bridges, docked aircraft carriers, waddling fossil fuel supertankers, freight trains, gatherings of peasants protesting, et al

as added bonus, not just thermal release upon impact, the DU core gets vaporized, then dispersed by the shockwave

660:

we've begun to regress

instead of sleeping soundly in our beds, we have to return to the bad old days of keeping one member of the village (or apartment building or extended family) awake to monitor weather reports since there's been all sorts of unexpected events... alert enough to then waken everyone else to immediately move to a secure location to ride out the surprise

tornados at night in increasing numbers being one of those waking nightmares of our New Normal

as well going to be ever more hail with the potential for fist sized chunks of ice smacking into roofs, pedestrians, power lines, aircraft and cars at 90 MPH / 150 KPM

661:

Howard NYC
I was afraid of that, as well.
I wonder how it might fare against the RN's latest, under-test weapon: Dragon Fire ??

662:

stop thinking spacecraft and Star Trek... start worrying about an arms race to build sub-orbital artillery capable of smacking stationary (and slow moving) targets from 15,000 km... sort of a low budget version of the unlamented 1980s "Star Wars" (aka: Strategic Defense Initiative) but fixated upon offense rather than defense

It's been tried, in the late 1980s, by Saddam Hussein: Project Babylon. (Mossad took violent exception to it, and then the Gulf War happened.)

The problem with fixed artillery positions is that they're very vulnerable to bombers, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Also to saboteurs. And a hypersonic railgun with an evacuated barrel is going to be big -- at least on the scale of Project Babylon, so unlikely to traverse, meaning minimal cross-range coverage.

I suppose Putin could have one built in the far Arctic north, aimed in the general direction of Kiev, and drop billets of DU on Kiev for a while until Ukraine figured out how to get cruise missiles on target (probably by hanging them off an airliner and flying the long way round). But it's a "see how long my dick is!!" macho bullying/posturing weapons system, not a sensible alternative to pretty much anything already existing.

663:

Laser weapons are actually crap against over-the-horizon hypersonic artillery: they lose most of their energy heating up atmosphere on the illumination path to a tiny, rapidly moving object. Which, if it's a lump of DU, is a slab of very hard metal with a very high melting point, so much so that it's a key component of layered tank armour these days.

664:

Agreed on the big rail guns.

The thing I’m more concerned about is the USSF—or the Chinese or Russians maybe—deliberately triggering a Kessler Cascade as the opening salvo to WW3. The “winning” strategy is apparently, once space gets hostile to things like GPS and space-based telecommunications, to maintain “theater superiority” by using Falcon Heavies and Starships to launch a lot of disposable satellites, putting them up faster than they’re being disabled. Possibly some loon thinks that if we spread enough shit in LEO, nukes can’t get through, but I think this is more about making the high frontier unlivable, then just doing WW1-style attrition, forcing opponents to fight without GPS or long distance communications unless they launch hundreds of replacement satellites per year.

Serve us right if we get smacked by an asteroid that was hidden by all the clutter.

One interesting note. A friend of mine was on a cruise ship that stopped at Ascension Island. They were told that they were on the last cruise ship t stop there for the foreseeable future, due t heightened military activity. That sounded weird, so I checked, and the USSF has a force based there. Hmmm.

https://www.patrick.spaceforce.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1749916/small-island-big-mission-ascension-island-supports-45-sw/

665:

Several of those disasters were outside pressures (Raygun's State of the Union speech, for example). And I still believe my late ex's guess, that it wasn't falling tiles from Columbia, but stress microcracking on the hydraulic lines inside the wings.

666:

Not quite. I mean, up through the Ottoman Empire, Jews and Christians were seen as believers, but second class believers. Christian rulers, on the other hand....

667:

Best of luck on your launch.

668:

Looking at the education section of his LinkedIn page https://www.linkedin.com/in/billycoull/details/education/ there are some fascinating entries at the bottom (pasting from LinkedIn is like pasting from a PDF):-

University of Sedona Mpsy.D., Doctor of Metaphysical Psychology, Mpsy.D. Metaphysical Psychology means the particular way that an individual interprets reality by attaching association from the memory or present stimulus.

University of Sedona Doctor of Theocentric Psychology, PsyThD., Theocentric Psychology Theocentric Psychology seeks to greatly enhance or add to the lives of those who are relatively well adjusted but intuitively know that they have a greater potential within themselves to bring forth and live more fulfilling lives. This could be in occupational or career pursuits, creativity and the arts, athletics, love within one’s life, as well as the God Presence Benefits of inner peace and happiness that is lasting.Theocentric Psychology seeks to greatly enhance or add to the lives of those who are relatively well adjusted but intuitively know that they have a greater potential within themselves to bring forth and live more fulfilling lives. This could be in occupational or career pursuits, creativity and the arts, athletics, love within one’s life, as well as the God Presence Benefits of inner peace and happiness that is lasting.

University of metaphysics Master of Metaphysics, Metapysical Psycology Grade: Metaphysical Science, M.Msc Focusing on Metaphysical Psychology.

669:

Re: '... as added bonus, not just thermal release upon impact, the DU core gets vaporized, then dispersed by the shockwave'

I've been wondering what the effect of such a vehicle splashing down at what's likely a very high speed/temperature has on ocean life overall.

Mikko @ 657:

Re: '... the Conservative Party thinks it itself is not based on any of those but only pure logic,'

Yeah - let's use 'rules' of logic but with never testing any premises or inputs vs. the real (contemporary) world. Based on casual watching of BBC news, I've decided that any UK pol who ends his/her argument/speech with some pithy Latin/Greek quote is using some antiquated system/definition of logic.

Just read a tweet that another Tory MP will not be seeking re-election, so by the time the mandatory GE happens either the Tories will have no candidates or all of their candidates will be new*/unknowns. The 'unknowns' could be problematic since there will likely be next to no info about them, i.e., how right-wing they are, who's bought them (paid their fees/advertising), etc.

*I'm guessing that the Tories are not immune to a UK version of GSantos.

Re: French

Haven't checked but based on an old QI episode apparently the French that is being mandated in France comes from a central region that pre-French language law was spoken by only 25-30% of the population of France. All other regional French dialects were banned/outlawed - removed from all curricula. (Sorta like what happened to Welsh - which is now making a comeback.)

Once worked with someone originally from Marseilles - couldn't understand most of what he said and thought my French really sucked until a fellow coworker from Montreal said that no one (in France or Quebec) understands the Marseilles dialect. (Weird - the French anthem is La Marseillaise and when sung it does not sound like the spoken Marseilles dialect.)

I'd heard that Benjamin Franklin (who spent a lot of time in Britain and France) wanted to simplify and standardize colonial English - primarily by removing some letters and going with a cleaner phonic alphabet. When I searched for a reference, I got the below - useful for early elementary school kids.

https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/An-Inconvenient-Alphabet/Beth-Anderson/9781534405554

Re: Canadian English

I've met some Newfoundlanders who talk like this - could easily pass for Irish.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOu9NAOGZvQ

670:

Mossad took violent exception to it

Yup. Assassinated the Canadian designing it.

671:

When I was a freshman in high school eating lunch in the cafeteria, a whole bunch of sophomores walked in with black arm bands on their jacket sleeves. (We were required to wear tie and jacket for class in our all-boys school.) Why?, I asked my fellow diners. We were overheard by one of the sophomores. "It's the Ides of March and the two thousandth anniversary of Caesar's death." Well, I was there for the celebration in 1957.

Happy Ides to all of you.

We were all required to take four years of Latin and the sophomores were near the end of Julius Caesar's Gallic Wars: "Gallia est omnis divisa ..."

672:

firstly, stop confusing me with a thoughtful analysis... I've made up my mind

secondly, if the intent is upon a cheap means of triggering a Kessler Syndrome style of thing, that rail gun is ideal... keep launching big chunks of metal which as each reaches apogee on its sub-orbital path fractures into zillions of bits 'n pieces

likely only needs be a double or so to get the party started

thirdly, I dunno what a railgun would cost but it has to be less than a giga-buck, which means instead of a single finally exposed aircraft carrier China builds a dozen railguns... which does a lovely job of crunching fixed defenses on their Reclaimed Province (formerly known as Taiwan)... yeah sure... after the war kicks off maybe the US or NATO might toss off enough cruise missiles to wreck 'em but as a surprise attack of firing off a couple hundred spears each massing five tons at 7 KPS, it ought wreck enough... not least the fuel tanks and ammo depots of Taiwanese military bases... so either risk a US$40M bomber and trained crew to wreck a base... or toss spears... sure there's a ten minute flight time but is that enough warning in peace time to scramble all fighters into the air? get high ranking officials into deep shelters?

fourthly, please don't harsh my mellow as I attempt to pitch to Netflix my World War 3 mini-series which is sure to include awesome F/X of railgun rounds fired off and then smacking down

{ SNARK = OFF }

673:

(I might be misquoting, but still this sums up)

"hold your hope in one hand, then shit into the other; see which fills up first"

lots of gosh-cool stuff gets mentioned but I'm still awaiting my personal air-car, wearable tech, widespread support by game vendors for Google Glass, Jarvic SynthHearts, etc

675:

hmmm... such as incidental damage done if those railgun spears miss US Navy warships (top of the target preferences being cruise missile deployers and aircraft carriers)... whereas if they hit... there's secondary booms, volatized metal, screaming humans, hulls filled with stuff which must be kept away from seawater flooded prior to rapid sinking...

goes back to whether vaporized uranium is or is not toxic if ingested by children and other living things

but for sure... asbestos, PCBs, oils, grease, paint, etc...

no way to guess but my advice is not to eat any fish from any ocean for the next five years

676:

University of Sedona? Online metaphysical degrees? Hmm.

There’s a definite story/RPG hook adjacent to that: Miskatonic University, an online institution, starts offering degrees in metaphysics, archaeology, and nonstandard psychology. What could possibly go wrong? Enroll in a course, fool around, and find out. Archaeology practicums will be held in week-long sessions at the Dunwich Field Station. Which is, as they say around Sedona, in vortex country.

677:

Me bet is that the motive isn't theft — it's vandalism.

There's a goodly chunk of your population who get an endorphin rush from pissing of anyone they disagree with (which includes EV drivers, by definition). This is like rolling coal or ICEing a charger, but better because the libs' frustration lasts longer. The same folks will paint over rainbow crossings etc.

678:

Re: ' ... not to eat any fish from any ocean for the next five years'

Thanks! Sounds like it could be worse than I thought.

Curious that I haven't seen any news coverage about the environmental impact, responsibility for limiting environmental disaster/adverse environmental impact (i.e., fines) from any of the international orgs I visit.

Would make for an interesting read especially if examined from a number of perspectives: effect on marine mammals (whales, seals - already known to be threatened thanks to global warming), effect on fish species, algae, seaweed (increasingly being used as a food source for humans), coral reefs, etc. A lot of marine mammals, birds and fish have been tagged and followed by scientists for a while already so it should be possible for scientists to also determine whether there's been a change in life span and health of these creatures.

679:

Oooh, I haven't seen a 451 error for ages "unavailable for legal reasons"... who even knew that Australia's libel laws had such reach!

680:

John Pennycook
( Pennicuick? .. )
One: Page wouldn't open....
Two: Wall-to-wall theological bullshit with zero basis in fact, as far as I can see.
Which fits right in with the original story line, IIRC?

SFR
let's use 'rules' of logic but with never testing any premises or inputs vs. the real (contemporary) world
As all the major religions, do, all the time, in fact.
... "Marsellias" - i.e. the dialect ... sounds like the French version of "Geordie" or possibly Glaswegian ... oh dearie me!
As for "Newfies" that is very close indeed to ULSTER Irish & nothing like the language of Dublin or Cork!

681:

...annual cruises to the Bermuda Hexagon offering a blend of practicum and lectures and frolic whilst circling a poorly defined realm of chaos 'n fear

Bermuda Hexagon = six times the terror of the Bermuda Triangle so there's six times the novel experiences

682:

...better than a "666 error"

("user has violated the laws of physics and transgressed into realms of the gods")

683:

Re: ' ... the French version of "Geordie'

Found a YT video of "Geordie" - that's even less comprehensible. :)

The Marseilles speaker I knew used a lot of facial expressions and body language so you got a sense of what he was saying or at least his mood about whatever he was saying.

BTW - there are several very distinct Newfoundland accents: some English, some Scots, some southern Irish and some northern Irish. According to the demo data the Irish ancestry is equally split between Catholic and Protestant.

I think Newfoundland was a major refueling stop for Europe-North American flights probably up to the early 1960s, i.e., pre non-stop trans Atlantic commercial jets. (Sorry - no idea what the correct aviation terminology is.)

684:

680 - Using a hover to establish the quoted address, then entering in a clean window, "Penicuik". Town in Midlothian (near Edinburgh). Wikipedia is legit amd accurate.

683 - The refuelling base in question being "Gander, Newfoundland", and the other end of the trans-Atlantic leg being "Shannon, Ireland".

685:

THIS JUST IN:

Republicans announce their candidate for vice-president and their motto for this election cycle...

    • Trump-Putin 2024 * *

" When you've tired of the lesser of two evils™ "

unconfirmed rumor has it Darth Vader, Gaius Caesar Augustus Germanicus ("Caligula"), Saddam Hussein, Mao Zedong, etc are all quite relieved to be avoiding this particular shitstorm despite having been on the GOP short list

Mao Zedong has been overheard remarking, "if you're gonna massacre millions at least have a plan; what a bunch of amateurs"

686:

I think Newfoundland was a major refueling stop for Europe-North American flights probably up to the early 1960s, i.e., pre non-stop trans Atlantic commercial jets.

It's still used to a significant extent by planes with shorter legs, things like C-130J. The LM-100Js I follow sometimes commute between Ramstein and the US via Shannon and St. Johns. Other times Bermuda-Azores.

687:

London Book Fair

I would be interested in Charlie's take on this article. But he may not care. Or may not care to be bothered by figuring out how to read it if paywalled to him.

Welcome to the London Book Fair, Where Everyone Knows Their Place

If you want to understand the power map of the publishing industry, just look at this event’s floor plan.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/books/london-book-fair.html

688:

We were all required to take four years of Latin and the sophomores were near the end of Julius Caesar's Gallic Wars: "Gallia est omnis divisa ..."

If you think in terms of Caesar as a popular politician[1] turned self-appointed dictator, this is equivalent to "The Art of the Deal" being turned into an immortal classic of literature over 2000 years later. Shudder.

[1] Insofar as every free man of Rome served in the army back then, and you didn't get to be a general much less a consul unless you were popular with your legion, Caesar was most certainly a populist leader.

689:

I've never done LBF. In general this sort of event is for publishers and agents, not authors so you should stay away unless your publisher wants to trot you out on stage for some sort of event. (I've done Frankfurt and New York: they're a zoo, any authors are caged animals.)

The big publishers bring huge semi-permanent assemblages which defy the term "booth"; Hachette's set-up at Franfurt back in 2012 or thereabouts cost them half a million euros, according to one of their executives (a guy I knew way back before he leveled up: we were touching base). There are full time marketing staff there working on plans the trade show appearances around the world -- as there are several (London, Paris, Frankfurt, Tokyo, New York, probably a bunch more I don't know about) and deals worth millions to tens of millions go down at them, it's part of the business.

Whereas the small publishers may be just a couple of people total, who take the weekend out of the office to fly out, rent a table, and act like hucksters in an SF convention dealer room.

691:

Yeah, does sound weird. But no weirder than a cruise ship stopping there.

Theres one car hire company with about 10 cars. 1 hotel, 1 publically accessible pub, not a lot to see other than cinder cones and the occasional antenna farm.

About 10 years ago I booked 2 of the 12 seats available to civvies on a flight from Brize Norton RAF base, and spent a couple of weeks there with my wife. All but 2 tiny coves are deadly for swimmers (snorkelling and fishing are good apparently) and the place is so dry the rabbits eat cockroaches. The hotel menu has 3 unchanging items so we stayed in one of the 2 self catering bungalows available.

Of course it does get the turtles laying eggs there, which was worth seeing and its always 30degrees (but with 80+% humidity) but after you seen the turtles, been up Green Mountain and gawped at the frigate birds, wall climbing crabs and kittywakes, you've exhausted the place.

I've been on Orkney mainland when a cruise ship docks and turns it into a mess - Kirkwall in the summer is more like Oxford St and the Ring of Brodgar seething. So I'm really not sure how cruise ships to Ascension would work - it not as if theres much to buy and theres no local culture, as there are no locals. Are you sure it wasn't the veg/supplies delivery boat from Africa to Ascension / St Helena?

692:

Yeah, Antarctica is the current cruising hothess. Two people h different cruises were just there last month, both leaving from Ushuaia and i don’t think they were on the same National Geographic cruise. The ships stop in the Falklands and Macquarie, if they can (storms) on the way down for bird watching and photography in the Antarctic summer.

One cruise after Antarctica headed north to see Bird Rock by Ascension. That’s where the “we’re closing to cruises” thing came from, posted on Facebook of course. Don’t know their final destination.

Since I lived on Catalina for a bit, I know what it’s like to have liners stop by an island regularly. I’m not sure how much the people on Ascension just got tired of hosting the ships and their pollution, and how much the USSF’s penchant for super secret systems made them want to limit the island to people with security clearances. While it could be both, since Ascension is a major satellite tracking center due to its location, I’m guessing it’s a bit more of the latter.

Oddly enough, I’ve read about Green Mountain. Good to bump into someone who’s actually seen it.

693:

ACOUP did a five part series on “how to Roman Republic 101” which you may have seen?

Basically the Senate was mostly experienced army officers, with the consuls originally each leading an army. It’s sort of a combination of the US Senate of rich veterans hosting the election of the Joint Chiefs of Staff from within their ranks.

The pedant made the case that this was why Rome was so good at fighting. Basically every Roman politician started as a low-level army logistics officer, and rising in the ranks meant both that they didn’t fuck up and that they won elections, with responsibility rising and open seats shrinking as they moved up to Consul—or got stuck as a back bench senator for life. This gave the Romans a deep bench of consols and former consols to send out with an army to do stuff. Meanwhile their opponents often consisted of a king with his one army. Even if a king like Pyrrhus won, Rome would just send another army of the same size at him. They normally fielded multiple armies every year, and their opponents usually had one.

Then this military machine got hacked, and Julius Caesar won the first of the resulting bloodbaths. Fun to think that he might have had De Bello Gallico ghost written. But I don’t think Trump , or Orban, or Putin, is in the same league. They’ve got a different set of skills, to put it nicely.

694:

As I recall, a bunch of Victorians decided to try to create a rain forest type environment on the mountain which at that point had a few natural plant species. They ransacked Kew Gardens and planted stuff up there and gradually the place has transformed - theres only one natural spring on the island (and its intermittent).

The green stuff (physicist term for botany) has spread down the mountain - which spends a lot of its time in cloud cover and trails a clouds like Gibraltar does. Dew/rain collection on the mountain top was a major source of the islands water (pre desalination) and theres now a rather nice pond at the top - albeit you need industrial grade Deet as life is hard for mossies anywhere else.

We took pictures of a couple of especially pretty plants. One turned out to be from Madagascar and the other southern europe. They certainly seemed to have taken to the place.

I remember hearing - after we returned - that the runway was out of order for heavy lifters and awaiting repair. I don't know if thats still the case.

Most the housing has metal roofs, so its not uncommon to be woken by some stunt land crab the size of a dinner plate wandering around it at 3am. Unusually, the rental car insurance has a specific section on crabs. Punctured tyres caused by crabs were charged at £300 each - 10 years ago, the nearest stockist being over a 1000 miles away and delivery boats once every 6 weeks.

695:

H
Gaius Julius only managed to hack it, because of the ongoing internal strife after the Punic ( Carthagininan ) wars, with two military dictators preceeding him:
Marius & then Sulla
After that Rome was ripe for a competent autocrat

696:

Charlie Stross @ 688:

"We were all required to take four years of Latin and the sophomores were near the end of Julius Caesar's Gallic Wars: "Gallia est omnis divisa ...""

If you think in terms of Caesar as a popular politician[1] turned self-appointed dictator, this is equivalent to "The Art of the Deal" being turned into an immortal classic of literature over 2000 years later. Shudder.

[1] Insofar as every free man of Rome served in the army back then, and you didn't get to be a general much less a consul unless you were popular with your legion, Caesar was most certainly a populist leader.

Do we know anything about who ol' Julie's "Ghost Writer" was? 😏

('Cause you KNOW Trumpolini didn't actually write "his" book)

697:

I ran across this snark in a 1960s short story of all off sources for 'modern day wisdom'

This {library system] grew exponentially. The process of education [of youth] consisted solely in learning how to tap it for knowledge when needed... it was a source of great pride that although hardly anybody knew anything any longer, everybody now knew how to find out everything...

welcome to elementary schools circa 2050s as Google -- that is to say googling -- becomes a critical piece of technology for 'youth' to learn how best to exploit

if anyone in the 1990s would have shown this post to me it would have seemed sciencefictional, possibly silly

now?

698:

...other factors also came to boiling point

number one?

primitive monetary policy which included the near-impossible-to-resist urge to water down the currency by way of adding copper to gold coins (precursor of here-n-now running the gvt printing presses)

basing money on gold has its 'plus' but too many 'minus'... a set volume of units which tend towards hoarding (and deflation) rather than circulation

and other stuff I could quote if only I can find the source material (I just barely can read it and understand whatever I am reading)

they did some amazing things in regard to "financial services technology" which for an empire can be just as critical as enough battle hardened dudes with sharpened swords

And number two?

slow communications

never mind a telephone network inside the cities if the Glory-That-Was-Rome had 'spark radio' capable of ten mile ranges between stations then they could have maintained tighter centralized control over a much vaster spread of territories... oh heck... couriers on bicycles towed by horses would have tripled the speed of intel movement...

699:

Howard NYC @ 697:

I ran across this snark in a 1960s short story of all off sources for 'modern day wisdom'

This {library system] grew exponentially. The process of education [of youth] consisted solely in learning how to tap it for knowledge when needed... it was a source of great pride that although hardly anybody knew anything any longer, everybody now knew how to find out everything...

welcome to elementary schools circa 2050s as Google -- that is to say googling -- becomes a critical piece of technology for 'youth' to learn how best to exploit

if anyone in the 1990s would have shown this post to me it would have seemed sciencefictional, possibly silly

now?

I wonder what today's youth would do if confronted with a "card catalog"?

Not a knock, just wondering if kids realize just how much more accessible information (and I guess dis-information) has become than it was when I was coming up.

700:

Re: '... googling -- becomes a critical piece of technology for 'youth' to learn how best to exploit'

I think we need a librarian to explain how this might work as a strategy for learning ... librarians still regularly interface with students, educators and other users, right?

A history of type, distribution/access of info, reliability by medium, etc. also seems due. (Identifying each variable/factor and their relationships).

First we had folklore - mom, dad, grandma, etc. telling kids stories as they showed their kids/grandkids how to do a task. Then over time, we travelling tradesmen/merchants appeared - they sold products, services plus communicated news/info/how-to.

Next was symbolic (written/etched/knotted) communication which meant adding a new skill (writing/reading) which also meant not losing key info between the person originally jotting down the idea/info and the reader - no more reliance on some travelling merchant to remember everything. Next up was an increase in the combination of cheaper physical media alongside more access to education across the population which allowed more people to personally access and transmit more types of info to more people.

Then the internet and online search and instant translation across most languages happened ... more data, more users, more rapidly ...

701:

welcome to elementary schools circa 2050s as Google -- that is to say googling -- becomes a critical piece of technology for 'youth' to learn how best to exploit

That's how the future was supposed to look, up until roughly 2022. Since then, the doom and decline of Google has become glaringly inevitable. It's going to be LLMs all the way down ...

702:

never mind a telephone network inside the cities if the Glory-That-Was-Rome had 'spark radio' capable of ten mile ranges between stations then they could have maintained tighter centralized control over a much vaster spread of territories...

Not even that: Napoleonic-era optical telegraph was entirely within the engineering and logistical reach of the Roman empire, if only someone had imagined it. And we know Carthage had the Greek hydraulic telegraph -- they used it during the first Punic war. (And I find it hard to believe that Rome didn't have crude semaphore for coordinating warship movements at sea.)

50 stations and 9 minutes to send a signal from Paris to Lisle!

Given the way Rome positioned its mile forts and bigger camps along its roads, they could have built an empire-spanning telegraph network that, for a price, could have coordinated army-level maneuvers around the Mediterranean within single-digit hours.

703:

On land the Romans at some point did use a semaphore style system, two sets of five flags gave a row and column for a grid of letters. It could also be used with torches instead of the flags.

One thing against widespread use of semaphore stations in Roman times is a lack of optics. If you rely on a legionnaires eyesight to read the flags then the stations have to be quite close together. For decent spacing and throughput you need to have a telescope fixed on the station either side of you in the line.

704:

schools circa 2050s as Google -- that is to say googling -- becomes a critical piece of technology

I agree with Charlie - we're rapidly heading to, if we haven't already reached, the point where 'facts' from your drunken uncle are more reliable than those from google. By 2050 we'll either have some kind of captive-intelligence-in-a-box that automates the process of deciding which facts are hallucinated, have torched the internet as it currently stands, or come up with something better (or died off, one way or another). Things cannot continue as they are, thus they will change.

The current LLM stuff is making bitcoin look rational. We're burning not just energy and computers but the lives of smart people and in exchange getting hallucinations.

705:

"if only someone had imagined it."

And that, if I understand the historians correctly, was what the Romans were absolutely useless at.

JHomes

706:

so... grandpa... it this 'card catalog' you speak of stored in the museum next to the 'pay phone'? or in the same dusty section as cellulous-based newspapers and VHS tapes?

{sad grin}

707:

Even if the Romans had had the optical technology, the Principate was very short on money. They could pay for the legions, but didn't have the tax revenue (or the accounting / forecasting technology) to pay for that kind of infrastructure.

At least, that's the impression I got from reading Mary Beard's recent books SPQR and Emperor of Rome.

708:

https://mastodon.world/@Mer__edith/112072485096571715 a series of posts from someone about how Big AI controls what AI research gets done. It's all about the funding, because when most non-trivial AI research ideas need a couple of million dollars worth of setting resources on fire, the people with the millions of dollars to burn get most of the say.

709:

huh...

I know all that... should have been able to recall it... 4Q LONG COVID BRAINFOG

as important as it would be for military maneuvers, the big advantage of rapid communications would be in reporting intel on this morning's political moves... spotting policy drift by high ranking leadership and/or excessive corruption[1] by bureaucrats long before becoming major problems... not least of the benefit being all those schemers are aware of such message traffic and thus either dampened down or needing to draw in so many other entities such as the telegraph operations mangers as to make plots 'n ploys unwieldy...

so too, commercial advantages of intel which would be of benefit to major merchant houses... indeed the civilian usage of the network would pay for its operating expenses[2] and thus be less of a burden upon the government... likely operated as a government owned monopoly just like those Roman roads everyone is always swooning over... leastwise and until... some Thatcher/Reagan precursor agitated for 'privatization'...

...thereby wrecking something critical to the empire which was functioning smoothly for years 'n years in order to maximize short term profit taking

====

[1] some percentage lost to a mix of graft-bribery-blackmail-extortion-embezzlement being both inevitable and perks expected by political appointees and thus deemed the cost of doing business... but never so much as to weaken the empire's military readiness or stir up local residents to the point of rebellion...

[2] addressing JReynolds in 707

710:

vulch 703

...which makes the key missing piece of tech being glass ground into lenses... they had glass already... just not 'white glass' clear of bubbles and nobody was routinely polishing it... and thus the item abruptly added by hand waving into existance for sake of an alternate history wherein the Roman Empire is stitched together tighter and lasts till 800 AD rather than 500 AD

it was going to fail at some point due to its economic policies and capital city corruption

711:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-202402

if I'm depressed then you should be too...

"December 2023–February 2024 global surface temperature was the warmest such period on record, 2.45°F (1.36°C) above the 20th-century average"

looking at the map all I see is red...

712:

[1] Insofar as every free man of Rome served in the army back then, and you didn't get to be a general much less a consul unless you were popular with your legion, Caesar was most certainly a populist leader.

Do we know anything about who ol' Julie's "Ghost Writer" was? 😏

That was Gluteus Maximus, also known to history as announcer for gladiatorial combats, famous for his intro, "People of Rome, silence! Gluteus Maximus wishes to speak!"

Which reminds me, I recently finished Nick Herron's spy novel series, the ones that AppleTV made the show Slow Horses out of. My impression was, take Charlie's Laundry setting, subtract all magic and fantasy elements, and you'd be left with a Kafkaesque, soul killing bureaucracy prone to intervals of high speed chaos much like the Slough House depicted in Slow Horses. Along with their very own resident Gluteus Maximus.

713:

Re: 'Roman times is a lack of optics ...'

Telescopes and binoculars would have come in handy.

Decided to do a quick search ... 3 hours later:

Glass dates back about 3,500 years, several ancient countries/empires made glass and clear glass was already being made in Rome around 100 AD.

The Corning Museum of Glass (NY) has the largest display of artifacts and books on glassmaking through the ages. And based on the How To Make Everything channel video below, they've also run some how-to-make-glass demos for interested amateurs. (Next time I'm near the area, I'll definitely drop by - looks really interesting!)

'The Secret Of Ancient Roman Glass Blowing!' [32:22]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ma-h-KpPVB8

After a few glass-related videos, the YT algo pulled up the video below - not about glass but about blue LED lights.

Very interesting - my guess is that the algo went for a common theme/connection - both glass and LED blue light involved a helluva lot of trial&error. Roman glass was decorative and had a few domestic functions so no one seemed to think it might have any other uses. LED blue light would bridge a gap in types of light plus allow for a whole new range of applications beyond lighting something.

Other interesting points: nice bio/history of the research process and interview with inventor (Shuji Nakamura, 2014 Nobel Laureate in Physics), clear description of how a semiconductor works, why the fuss about a blue LED, plus some insight into Japanese corp culture. (They too have their jerk CEOs.)

This Veritasium video has been up for only one month and already has 17 million views - impressive! It's a nice backgrounder for high school or college intro physics.

'Why It Was Almost Impossible to Make the Blue LED'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AF8d72mA41M

714:

Everyone forgets the librarian, but that's the function which is most important (next to retaining the data to look at in the first place).The situation in broad isn't really new at all; "learning how to tap it for knowledge when needed" has long been an essential part of academic education.

There are the people in Learned Professions who inhabit dens lined with forbidding tomes on law or mathematics or Chinese history or whatever; they know enough to know that there is far more that they need to know than they can ever actually know, so instead of wasting space on their mental maps with "here be dragons" areas, they use the mental capacity for understanding of the way things work, with much of the actual data stored externally in books, and "the way things work" including tagging the things with links to which books the specific details of them are in. Often they can be doing their own librarianning, since on this personal scale the external data store is unlikely to need to be unmanageably large.

For Ordinary People things are basically supposed to work the same way, except that the external data stores are shared facilities sufficiently large that librarianning them becomes a learned profession in itself, with the added complication that the inquirers they have to deal with are more lacking in general understanding and knowledge and so generate inquiries which are vaguer and make less sense.

The exemplars of "it was a source of great pride that although hardly anybody knew anything any longer, everybody now knew how to find out everything" may be those characters who think themselves "educated" because they went to Eton and Oxford and have a lot of money which they can spend on acquiring a personal data store on the scale of a public one to look things up in, but don't spend any on inconspicuous aspects like librarianning it, so they can't even remember what most of their books are, and it's full of volumes not only unread but uncut. They take pride in having their own means of finding out everything, but they still don't actually know anything because they can't use it.

What we have had recently is a librarian who knows where to find stuff about any inquiry in every library in the world, and brings it right to your desk so you don't even have to waste time fetching it... BUT who does this without actually understanding anything about what the inquiry means, and with only the barest of clues about how to distinguish between the library of a centre of world research on a subject, and the random resemblance to words of the patterns of light and dark in a hectare of second hand toilet paper.

I guess the surprising thing is that to begin with this actually worked fairly well - as long as it was still dealing with natural distributions. But it fell over when the distributions were made highly unnatural by people paying whole armies of other people to wipe their arses and leave the paper in the librarian's garden, and the librarian started taking graft to rank it.

I guess also the education of children may be an area where things are working up to a more serious crash. From the spurious results I get when one of my search queries apparently intersects with some popular homework question, it looks as if search engines do still work quite well for education up to about age 16 - lots of standard textbooks and exam preparation materials from respectable sources, in sufficient quantity to be a pain in the arse when it randomly floods the results for some other search. And for any more general bit of subject matter there's always a wikipedia result, which ought to be perfectly adequate for any schoolwork purposes in that sort of age range; certainly it beats the crap out of anything the school library ever had to use for any "go and look it up in the library" schoolwork I was ever given. (And they would never accept "But there's fuck all in the library, sir" as a valid excuse for brevity.)

But for anything beyond school level, the effects of the behaviour-modifying coprogenic parasite on search engines were already becoming noticeable before the kids now due to leave school had even started it. Trying to find anything deeper than wikipedia is pretty bloody hopeless now for all kinds of material, and so much of what you do find needs detailed checking over to discover that it's bollocks. And this will only getting worse since there's no hope of banning commercial use of the internet.

So we're educating people more and more to automatically think they can get a good answer by searching on the internet, while at the same time raising a higher cliff with deeper and dirtier water at the bottom to push them off when they leave school and have to unlearn everything they think they know about how to find things out. Which means more and more of them never will, and that general area is a matter for enough concern already.

715:

If it's a sunny day you don't need a telescope; a mirror will do.

716:

so... slab of glass polished flat then silvered... plausible as high end item in luxury trade

someone positions two mirrors at 90 degree angle to get a better view of themselves as they dress for a party and inadvertently invents optics of precise reflection... maybe someone else has a half-dozen flat pieces arranged in a graceful curve in their dining hall and inadvertently discovers the concentration effect of a parabolic arch when ordinary sunlight turns into a hot spot...

717:

"hydraulic telegraph"

Seems a tremendously heavy and cumbersome way of obtaining a pair of (nominally) synchronised timebase sweeps. After all, it's just a water clock, and ordinary ones were usually quite a bit smaller and neater than that - which surely for military use in the field is the kind of thing you want.

I guess before you deployed a pair of these you'd have to calibrate them against each other to be able to use them reliably. And the longer you let it run for the more significant the divergence between the two timebases would become, so the meanings allotted to longer times would become more prone to mistransmission. They could have mitigated this by spacing the times further apart the longer they got, though it would have reduced the vocabulary.

I suppose it does have a security advantage through being a code rather than a cipher; the enemy can't understand the signals unless they've managed to snaffle a copy of the code table, and you could (and would likely need to for other reasons anyway) change that every day if you wanted. Though if Caesar really did use the "Caesar cipher" it suggests that they might not have found this sort of thing so obvious at the time.

I don't understand the British one later in the article. A manometer with a horizontal section 60 yards long is going to have an unusably small bandwidth of some fraction of a Hz (at least make it a closed system with sealed pistons at both ends), as well as being awkward to set up. Given that electrical telegraphs were already known, it seems an especially silly thing to have tried to flog commercially, and especially for someone who demonstrably was not silly and moreover was about to get heavily into electrical telegraphs.

718:

Got the name wrong, Mick, not Nick.

719:

"so... slab of glass polished flat then silvered... plausible as high end item in luxury trade"

Nowt so elaborate - you're not trying to form a precise image. Just a flat piece of metal polished shiny will do.

"maybe someone else has a half-dozen flat pieces arranged in a graceful curve in their dining hall and inadvertently discovers the concentration effect of a parabolic arch when ordinary sunlight turns into a hot spot..."

Well they say Archimedes did that...

So did the dumb modern architects in London competing with each other to see who could design a building to look more stupid. This thing looked like a wax model of an ordinary tower block that had been left in the sun until it went all soft and started sagging under its own weight. Therefore its front face was concave, and with it being covered in glass and facing south-ish, it could under the right conditions focus enough sunlight at ground level to melt parked cars.

720:

never mind a telephone network inside the cities if the Glory-That-Was-Rome had 'spark radio' capable of ten mile ranges between stations then they could have maintained tighter centralized control over a much vaster spread of territories... oh heck... couriers on bicycles towed by horses would have tripled the speed of intel movement.

Why the heck would any consul or proconsul worth his salt want those backstabbers in the senate second-guessing him? They gave him the imperium to fight a war, that was that.

Also, lots of vulnerable infrastructure is more valuable to robbers and vandals than to the Republic. Rome throughout its history was amazingly light weight on conquest bureaucracy. As much as possible, they preferred to co-opt and subvert the local leaders and religion, using auxiliary troops relocated from far away. It's a standard imperial playbook that the US still uses...

Anyway, you want low tech distance communication? Drums. Messages move 100 mph, and the only infrastructure is the drums themselves: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drums_in_communication

721:

It's kind of fun listening to NPR rebroadcast a show on psychedelics becoming legal again while reading all this We're All Doomed! stuff. Makes me wonder if LSD can be used therapeutically to break internet addiction, and whether it's worth googling to find out.

Anyway, when the American hard right finally got up the nerve to try pot en masse, the results included Cliven Bundy, QAnon, and MAGA. Now they're getting into psychedelics. What could possibly go wrong?

722:

...which had to be the easiest "avoidable destruction of personal property" lawsuit to win in UK history

723:

card catalog

I have trouble getting Google and it's kin to find things I know exist. My "phrasology" tends to be off. And this is not current. Since the beginnings of Goolge.

I was totally hopeless with a card catalog.

724:

so... grandpa...

Ahem...

so... DAD ...

725:

...which had to be the easiest "avoidable destruction of personal property" lawsuit to win in UK history

Same thing happened in LA with that curvy museum. They had to buy out and/or do something for the owners of some apartments/condos who were getting heated to unlivable amounts a while back.

726:

Everyone forgets the librarian, but that's the function which is most important

You didn't spend your first 20 years in a remote area. Grew up outside of a town of 32K. Anything bigger was a 4+ hour car ride away.

Our local librarians had no idea about much of STEM. And the 2 year college was staffed mostly by 1st and 2nd year students. I and some friends had read every publicly available book in the county before graduating high school on the subject of logic and computer designs. And deep they were not.

727:

The same architect (not even the same company, literally the same guy). Apparently 'learning from your mistakes' is no longer a thing. On the plus side at least there aren't two of them.

728:

J Reynolds
IIRC - was it L Sprague de Camp who imagined Rome not falling, because someone (Time/dimension traveller) invented Place-order numbering & Double-Entry book-keeping?

729:

Not to mention the Printing Press etc. All to prevent the fall to Barbarians.

730:

I cannot find it but a story in Analog (late 1970s? early 1980s?) had a murder accomplished by a vengeful victim upon the murderer of his family by way of a new officer building which had climate adaptive computing... so he tweaked the code to open each window to collectively arrange into a parabolic mirror that concentrated hundreds of square meters of sunlight onto a patch five centimeters in diameter...

...what they found of the murderer was roasted past well done

731:

"Lest Darkness Fall"

oldie but goodie

sequel was written by SM Stirling (or Harry Turtledove?)

732:

Lest Darkness Fall, as Howard NYC noted. Protagonist drops back in time from Rome in 1938-39 to Rome in 535. Just in time for Justinian's Gothic Wars.

Harry Turtledove offered to write a sequel, but LSdC wouldn't authorize one. A couple of stories were written in tribute to de Camp after his death, but they were mostly "distant" sequels: set many years after LDF, or using the same idea but with different characters.

733:

A couple of stories were written in tribute to de Camp after his death

Collected in (what else) an anthology:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lest_Darkness_Fall_and_Related_Stories

734:

Got me imagining Lest Darkness Fall set in the present day. Some time traveler comes from the future and decides to save her ass by preventing our civilization from collapsing as it did in her timeline.

And just to cross the streams, she’s from the Dune timeline, and….

735:

As well as four (required) years of Latin in my high school, we had to take three required years of classical Greek. The second year of Greek involved translating another soldier/writer in Xenophon as we read part of his Anabasis, the part where he's retreating from Persia (?).

What I remember most about Xenophon was the so-called dative of disadvantage: his men ate some melon and it passed THROUGH them.

The third year of Greek was not the Iliad, surprisingly for such militaristic readings, but the Odyssey.

Tony Fauci, the tiny captain of the basketball team, was two years ahead of me. To show what kind of an educated person he was, he took exactly one year of required science because that was all that was offered (a choice between physics or chemistry). But he had to take the required four years of Latin, English, History, Physical Education, Mathematics, and Religion, the required three years of Greek, the required two years of a modern language (a choice between French or German), and the required year of science and Library Science. The two choices mentioned above were the only choices we had.

Fauci went on to major in Classics in college (who would blame him) with a track in pre-med. I think his background was why he was so successful as an administrator as well as being a widely-cited scientist.

736:

JHomes @ 705:

"if only someone had imagined it."

And that, if I understand the historians correctly, was what the Romans were absolutely useless at.

JHomes

Why does it have to be a Roman who thought of it? From what I understand, they were pretty good at taking ideas from others & incorporating them into Roman "technology".

... the very opposite of "not invented here" IYKWIM.

737:

Howard NYC @ 716:

so... slab of glass polished flat then silvered... plausible as high end item in luxury trade

someone positions two mirrors at 90 degree angle to get a better view of themselves as they dress for a party and inadvertently invents optics of precise reflection... maybe someone else has a half-dozen flat pieces arranged in a graceful curve in their dining hall and inadvertently discovers the concentration effect of a parabolic arch when ordinary sunlight turns into a hot spot...

Polished bronze would probably be cheaper & easier to use ...

Archimedes' heat ray

738:

Re: '... when they leave school and have to unlearn everything they think they know about how to find things out.'

Thanks for the explanation - much appreciated!

How is the 'leave school ... unlearn everything' different from the 'people typically forget about 95% of what they learned in school' and then because of continual advances 80% of whatever they learned has changed/been rewritten?

I've been wondering about why continual re-education hasn't become part of modern life across the board. Yeah - I know that people usually keep up with new info within their specialties but to function as a society you do need some consistency wrt what is current accepted-as-reliable knowledge.

exregis @ 735:

Interesting info about Fauci - thanks!

Wonder which classical Greek/Roman most resembles DT.

739:

serious query: has Charles Stross trademarked “LaundryVerse™”...?

740:

David L @ 723:

"card catalog"

I have trouble getting Google and it's kin to find things I know exist. My "phrasology" tends to be off. And this is not current. Since the beginnings of Goolge.

I was totally hopeless with a card catalog.

Someone else has pointed out the utility of having librarians available. If I couldn't find what I wanted I'd ask the librarian on duty to help me with my search.

If the "information" (aka books) you wanted wasn't IN the library you were visiting, the librarians had resources to find out if a book about it was available in another location (inter-library loans) and [I can't remember the name right now **] there was a bound index that came out every six months or so that listed most of the articles in magazines & periodicals ... so that maybe if no one had written a book about it yet ...

But that's not quite the point ... whether you have strong "Google-fu" or not, TODAY you have access - literally "at your fingertips" - to an exponentially greater "catalog" of information (and miss-information) than was available to earlier generations.

What might today's young people think of THAT? Would they even recognize how limited our generations' resources for acquiring knowledge (or at least information) really were?

... how much actual work was involved in informing oneself back in "olden days"?

** Might have been called "Index to Periodicals"?

741:

SFReader @ 738:

Wonder which classical Greek/Roman most resembles DT.

"Little Boots" - Gaius Caesar Augustus Germanicus (aka Caligula).

742:

there's something much, much more rousing in terms of the timeline getting altered... though this will be of interest only to Americans... and those who actually want a continuance of democracy

ten heavily armed time travelers pop into the Capitol on 06-JAN-2021 in carefully selected positions from which they machine gun most of the insurrectionist goons... and after they slit throats of those not quite yet dead they unveil a ten foot banner with a Google Docs URL...

meanwhile... across town there's one guy who arrives in an empty office, logs onto the web... uploads three hundred gigabytes of video-audio-photo-text... to which he e-mails links to several thousand journalists...

it is evidence gathered by embittered survivors of the Trump regime in 2046 who are determined to "unmake history" of a dictatorship characterized by much violence and mindlessness and looting...

people in 2021 watching CNN are of course stunned by events... the attack... the counter-attack... utterly baffled...

because of the rules of time travel (complexities due to “19 dimensional quantum” don't ya know) they are not here to stay but are on “chrontonic rubberbands” which after 13 minutes drag 'em back to the future from which they came... oh yeah good news they've created a new timeline but bad news they'll return to theirs...

as journalists and citizens and villains download the cache of whistleblower evidence, there's a certain amount of chaos as everyone chews through millions of pages and hundreds of hours of video...

which turns into an approximation of hell as villains alternate between reflexive denial, panicky assassination, frantic calls, halfhearted bluffing, mass arrests, and buying one way tickets to non-extradition nations... shadowy entities seek to tidy up any dangling threads which might reveal them...

...And Then It Gets Really Interesting™

{ excerpt from my Netflix elevator pitch }

743:

FYI / FWIW

https://lite.cnn.com/2024/03/17/business/immersive-fantasy-events-tik-tok-millennials/index.html

really real companies providing actual immersive events not just a couple of jelly beans and awful lemonade

quote:

"...a wave of new companies has started hosting fantasy-themed balls, masquerades and similar immersive events for adults... consumers eager to spend money on experiences... popularity of romance and fantasy books...

so... I'll invoke a frequently invoked meme which ought be trademarked: What Could Possibly Go Wrong™

and then why not join with me in having the giggles as we are gonna weave it into the LaundryVerse™ ...?

744:

Nope, I haven't trademarked it. Because it's not a thing used in marketing my work, and it would cost money, and it's pointless.

745:

Poetry to listen to whilst doing you laundry?

(Sorry).

746:

"Shall I compare thee to a freshly washed shirt?"

747:

versus... humming the tune because you never learned the words?

sorry not sorry

748:

Howard NYC@ 743
Immersive-fantasy-events / What could possibly go Wrong??
To which, IIRC, the answer is ... "Rule 34" ??

749:

so-called dative of disadvantage

Thanks for that. The highly-inflected Indo-European languages contain a lot of weird stuff.

The genitive-partative has been a favorite of mine, where the genitive can mean "a bit of". It is in standard use in French, Russian and probably others.

Also, in Russian, the Indo-European ablative has been absorbed into the genitive, which produces some slightly odd constructions.

750:

...has Charles Stross trademarked “LaundryVerse™”...?

Interestingly, on the topic of registering things with governments, I recently happened across the fact that the UK will allow a fairly broad range of characters in company names. Which was no more than an annoying quirk for the company that found they were known as BETTS & TWINE LTD...

...but then the usual cranks noticed. At least two trolling companies have been registered with the UK: \"><SCRIPT SRC=MJT.XSS.HT></SCRIPT> LTD and ; DROP TABLE "COMPANIES";-- LTD.

It's nice to know little Bobby Tables has a place to work, I guess?

751:

uhm... covid brain fog...

what's funny about

BETTS & TWINE LTD

TIA

753:

what's funny about BETTS & TWINE LTD

It's probably rendering "correctly" on your browser, and it's a reasonable guess that computers doing the smart thing is what let the name get through in the first place.

Try reading it this way: B E T T S & A M P ; T W I N E L T D

Someone who almost certainly wanted a normal ampersand got html markup code instead.

754:

HUH...?

further proof this is tech not quite polished enough

there's been just too many rough patches 'n metaphorical splinters

755:

I've been wondering about why continual re-education hasn't become part of modern life across the board.

Because people as a whole don't like change. They want life today to be about the same as yesterday and tomorrow to be about the same as today. Incremental change that does not disrupt the daily routing too much is ok. But major change, people tend to be in denial.

I see in in the politics of the US, and UK (as discussed here) and most of the the planet. And it tech. Again here.

Committing to continual learning means that life is changing all the time. Most people just don't want that.

757:

Arthur C. Clarke wrote a short story about an attempt to nobble a soccer referee using match programmes with a glossy cover.

Ah, yes: "A slight case of sunstroke".

758:

"How is the 'leave school ... unlearn everything' different from the 'people typically forget about 95% of what they learned in school'"

In that the second refers to the things you learn by being explicitly taught them, as the subjects of lessons, while the first is a thing you just assimilate implicitly as part of the normal process of getting used to the way things are, which is assumed by the lesson structure to be something you'll have picked up for yourself already and so doesn't need to be taught.

(In the same sort of way, how to add up the price of food you buy and check if they've given you the right change is clearly a thing of the second kind, explicitly taught in lessons, but knowing that you buy food in shops and which shops are good or bad and which ones always give you the wrong change are things of the first kind, which you just come to know by being used to it.)

"and then because of continual advances 80% of whatever they learned has changed/been rewritten?"

In that that is a gradual process which takes place bit by bit and year by year, whereas the other is a step change that hits you all of a lump.

(To continue the shopping comparison, it's like the difference between keeping track of the changes in which shops are more or less useful as they randomly start or stop stocking odd items, and suddenly discovering one day that all the items in all the shops that were fine yesterday now still look exactly the same but when you open the packet they all contain shit.)

Be it noted also that I'm just flapping around a possible thought, not saying definitely that here is a real and terrible looming disaster.

760:

Surely a fabulously successful businessman as fabulously wealthy as Mr. Trump has claimed to be could post the bond himself, no?

761:

Vulch & everybody ... Every time I see US news, the opinion(s) on DJT winning or crashing, either in the courts or in November change

What are your considered opinions on this? DJT has his extremely loud & fanatic "base" - same as the Brexshiteers here, but just because they are shouting loudly doesn't mean they will or can "win" - or does it?

762:

For those who remain interested in the "Havana Syndrome", a lengthy study of those affected was published in JAMA today.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2816533

Clinical, Biomarker, and Research Tests Among US Government Personnel and Their Family Members Involved in Anomalous Health Incidents

Key Points

Questions: Do US government officials and their family members involved in anomalous health incidents (AHIs) differ from control participants with respect to clinical, biomarker, and research assessments?

Findings: In this exploratory study that included 86 participants reporting AHIs and 30 vocationally matched control participants, there were no significant differences in most tests of auditory, vestibular, cognitive, visual function, or blood biomarkers between the groups. Participants with AHIs performed significantly worse on self-reported and objective measures of balance, and had significantly increased symptoms of fatigue, posttraumatic stress disorder, and depression compared with the control participants; 24 participants (28%) with AHIs presented with functional neurological disorders.

Meaning: In this exploratory study, there were no significant differences between individuals reporting AHIs and matched control participants with respect to most clinical, research, and biomarker measures, except for self-reported and objective measures of imbalance; symptoms of fatigue, posttraumatic stress, and depression; and the development of functional neurological disorders in some.

763:

Never had Latin or Greek*, but can speak scientific Latin and Greek fairly fluently. I did read a then-new translation of the Gallic Wars in '79, and if it was a good translation, I understand why it's been used to teach Latin since. Marvelously written.

764:

I have this memory of reading, more than once, about a Roman matriarch who had a lens of ground... ruby(?) like a lorgnette, but nothing more.

765:

Part of that is that, starting around 2012, Google's marketing dept began gaining complete control over their search algorithms. They desperately want to sell you whatever their advertisers are paying for, not find the information you're looking for.

766:

No Bene Gesserit, please. (snicker the smell checker wants to replace Gesserit with Serengeti). How about the original basis for them, and Green Lantern, and the Jedi: a Lensman of the Galactic Patrol?

767:

I prefer the modified grammer... from Pogo. Based on that, the future universe in my novels, and what I'm trying to push as something bigger picture than hopepunk is my favorite grammatical tense: the future perfectable. (No, I didn't say perfect...)

768:

If we posted pictures here, I have a photomicrograph of a tardigrave playing a violin in sympathy, for extremely small values of sympathy.

769:

You can post a link

770:

What are your considered opinions on this?

In general this presidential election is between the two least popular pair that anyone can remember.

Biden's chances seem to mostly turn on 2 things. Inflation and immigration.

And how people perceive these. Most everyone has retreated to their news silos. In broad terms there are 3. Fox and friends, the opposite of this, and those who wish it would all go away and avoid the political news. And it is this last group that will decide things.

Inflation. Prices are up about 17% (heard in the last few days) since Jan 2020. People SEE this when the buy groceries.

Immigration. Wikipedia estimates that between 310K and 570K people are in the UK without legal status. In December 2023 the US had about 250K encounters with people crossing the border without entry rights. And they estimate they miss 10% or more. So every two months or so we (the US) see as many people trying to enter the US with out "papers" as the UK has already there in total. And the UK has been having intense debates about how to deal for 2 or 3 years or so it seems to me. Rwanda and all. Think about this and how it would translate if the US border crossing numbers were happening in the UK. Even at a rate reduced proportionally to the population.

Could ANY government stay in power?

771:

David L
So - the threat of an actual theocratic-fascist government doies not interest them?

772:

It interests a lot of people. Some want it or wouldn't mind. Some really are concerned. But remember that 3rd silo. They aren't clued in at all.

Just now it seems DJT is blowing it as he isn't spending to get to that 3rd silo but is working very hard to turn his base to granite. Which political types think is nuts. He has almost no ground game / get out the vote in the key states that are expected to be close. And based on what he just did to the RNC, doesn't seem to see the need. Or is too distracted by trying to get a whopper of a bond.

Biden is trying to figure out how to message to that 3rd silo. The ones who tend to be a political but are pissed about the cost of groceries and how their services are being cut to deal with all the undocumented (illegals but we can't say that out loud) who have to be fed and housed. New York City is a mess due to this just now. It is impacting local elections. Ditto Chicago to a lessor degree. And Denver. And ....

The theocracy bit is debatable. Trump's base is made up of a wide variety of misfits. Many of whom would not get near each other except at a Trump rally. Some want a theocracy. But even this is a minority of professed Christians. Others, a libertarian paradise. Peter Thiel anyone? Now toss in the skin heads, laid off coal miners, and a dozen or more other groups. And you now have a strange collection of people who are only united in one things. No to Biden.

773:

"Bene Gesserit"

Is that "it will have been borne well" or "[that] it should have been borne well"? Or is the ambiguity a deliberate choice?

I'm not sure that reading a translation really conveys the reason for using Caesar to teach Latin. It's because the Latin is clear and straightforward, and doesn't confuse you with literary devices. Latin can be something of a write-only language if the writer so desires, and some of the Roman authors who were writing for effect could be rather like that. Caesar is not interested in messing about, and just wants to set down the record in decently military fashion.

774:

"threat of an actual theocratic-fascist government"

I would add to what David L said. For some, theo-fascist is a feature, not a bug. Both promise ORDER, and putting conditions and values back to some golden age. The trains run on time, and the "right" people enforce the social order. What's not to like?

Trump isn't spending on campaign because he's having trouble making bond on the civil judgements against him. Additionally, he's becoming increasingly demented, so his handlers don't want him out in public. A day or so ago he complained that the teleprompter was waving in the wind so he couldn't read from it. Dementia is mixed blessing here, because he's becoming more himself: a sadistic monster. "I win the election or there will be bloodshed". David's first group are horrified, the second, his cultists are thrilled, and maybe ready to commit violence.

The not paying attention group really will decide things. Even then, if Trump loses, we may see violence. If he wins he promised revenge, so there also will be violence.

775:

https://lite.cnn.com/2024/03/18/politics/trump-464-million-dollar-bond/index.html

tee hee...

if he cannot post the full amount then he cannot file an appeal

NYTimes indicates == 30 == entities turned him down whereas other sources estimate he might have reached out to == 50-plus ==

which, given his certainty of being a candidate and (sadly) high probability of getting enough electoral college votes to become POTUS, is suggestive of how toxic he is... if it was anyone else but him then every bank/hedgefund/pensionfund would be sucking up to a candidate...

so...

tee hee, indeed

776:

hmmmm...

porn from an alternate 1930s timeline

Fifty Shades Of Grey Lensmen

777:

David L @ 770:

In general this presidential election is between the two least popular pair that anyone can remember.

Or at least, since the 2016 face-off.

778:

Mod: Delete one of 774 or 5. Pressed Submit and 200 entries disappeared. Did I do that? Hit Submit again. So sorry.

[[ done - mod ]]

779:

...as always there are the craven who seek power by any means available no matter how deep the blood puddles get... and the fools who really do believe they will never be targeted by an amoral regime due to having been the thugs who helped establish it

whereas those sane or wary are seriously mapping out routes via secondary roads to reach Canada... with location where to cross over on a moonless night on foot...

these are the days when I am relieved to have no children so nobody to fret over ... I intend to sit quietly to watch civilization burn... if lucky I'll survive long enough to see the thugs dance on air from lampposts

780:

David's first group are horrified, the second, his cultists are thrilled, and maybe ready to commit violence.

I think you flipped my groups but yeah.

To Greg. Just like much of our news about the UK or EU, your news of the US tends to be way over simplified.

And to Leroy's comment. Polling indicates way less enthusiasm than in 2016. In 2016 there was a lot of enthusiasm and hatred. Now hatred by some mixed with "SERIOUSLY" by others.

782:

So, you don't remember Carter vs. Raygun.

But, no, the polls are clearly wrong, because the Dems keep winning, and in some cases flipping seats. A LOT of people are angry about Roe, and it's become a common meme that "they're coming for recreational sex".

The more he pivots towards his psychotic, Christianst base, the smaller his support. There are some GOP members, like a Senator? Congressman? from Louisiana, of all places, who don't support him. And Pence - the first VP ever not to support the guy who'd been above him.

783:

Howard NYC
whereas those sane or wary are seriously mapping out routes via secondary roads to reach Canada... with location where to cross over on a moonless night on foot...
I hope this includes the entire Obama family?

784:

No. Just no. And if that isn't enough, there's a sequence in one of the Lensman books where Kinneson is captured, and eventually returned, minus arms, legs, etc...\

He does get better...

785:

Howard NYC.

I'm in NYC as well. Canada? Kids? Get real. Adopted abused/neglected minority kids from NY foster care.
No way they're getting to Canada. What future do they have if Trump, and/or climate change floods my currently REALLY valuable property at the bottom of Park Slope Brooklyn. For the moment, they're now "middle class" and have US passports.

Charlie's dystopia vs theirs. Depressing. To arms at age 80? Jeez.

786:

»mapping out routes via secondary roads to reach Canada...«

Some years back, a friend who happens to know a lot about China, explained to me why "China doesn't do something about North Korea" and it really blew my mind that nobody /ever/ mentions that aspect anywhere in the west.

If North Korea falls apart, China will have millions of refugees on their hands, refugees who have been indoctrinated from birth, and therefore have a mental model of the world which has very little to do with reality.

It would take decades to reeducate those refugees before they could be released into and integrated with the rest of China, with a large fraction of them never able to make the transition.

There's simply no way that scenario can end well for China, so they do not want North Korea to fall apart.

QED.

To us in the west, North Korea is very far away, so the "being next door neighbor" aspect is not part of our mental machinery for thinking about North Korea.

I feel there is a similar mental disconnect exists about USA-Canadian relations, but with the opposite sign.

Everybody from USA tacitly assume that "they can just move to Canada", but despite Canada having better and cheaper healthcare, comprehensive gun-control and seems to have solved pretty much all the things people in USA complain about being "broken", the USAnians still do not cross the border.

A very big reason for why is because they have all been indoctrinated from birth that "USA is the best country in the world", so even if everything is actually better, it would still be a step down to go somewhere else.

But they think it is nice to know that "the option is there", and because they are from "USA, the best country in the world", it never occurs to them that Canada might not welcome them with open arms.

Nothing can convince me, that Canada's government has not already drawn up a contingency plan, for how to handle if ten thousand USAnians, with their fundamentally deeply flawed mental model of the world, comes crashing across the border.

Being Canadian, those are undoubtedly very nice and generous plans, but their primary objective will be to prevent ten thousand from becoming hundred thousand.

787:

ten thousand USAnians, with their fundamentally deeply flawed mental model of the world, comes crashing across the border

One argument I keep having on Contrary Brin is that the American political spectrum is truncated. Their left-most party maps onto our mainstream right-wing party. Their right-wing party maps onto out right-wing extremists. They have no equivalent to out centrist or left-wing parties. Most Americans (on Brin's blog) seem unable to understand this.

They are even more unable to understand that Canadian politics is similarly truncated by European standards. They hear the label "left" and think "Biden", or possibly "Saunders", without realizing that in many parts of the world those politicians would be considered centrist-to-right-wing.

So yeah, totally don't want Americans crossing the border willy-nilly. Especially as (statistically) 40% of them will be crazily right-wing by Canadian standards. (Although possibly not by Alberta/Saskatchewan standards, because those provinces seem determined to imitate Texas and Florida.)

788:

He [DJT] has almost no ground game / get out the vote in the key states that are expected to be close. And based on what he just did to the RNC, doesn't seem to see the need.

And this will likely continue. All of Trump's money is going toward legal expenses these days (lawyers, bonds for appeals, etc.). If he wasn't such a rat, I could almost feel sorry for the guy. 😂

Since Lara Trump (his daughter-in-law) has taken over the Republican National Committee (and fired much of the committee's staff, replacing them with Trump loyalists), money from the RNC will also be going to pay Trump's legal expenses. This likely means no RNC financial help for Republican candidates in 2024, a good sign for Joe Biden and other Democratic candidates.

789:

There have been plenty of political psychology studies that show people's political leanings tend to change when they move to a new locale, usually towards the mean of the population where they've moved.

It doesn't happen overnight, but we are social apes and if everyone around us seems to hold a specific point of view we start to adopt it ourselves. We see this in the trope of young people moving to the city and becoming 'liberal leftists', and I saw it when my parents bought a farm and shifted a little to the right.

It is not absolute by any stretch, but at a population level it is a strong trend.

However, the one place you don't want to live is in a 'soft' looking liberal democracy right next door to a militarized religio-fascist state with crumbling infrastructure. Fascists love to start wars. They are comically, tragically bad at winning wars but they love to start them and usually smash the nearest weakling before they are stopped.

790:

In one of her recent books, Jo Walton has a character muse that the main reason that Canada's immigration system is complex and expensive is to keep Americans looking for single-payer healthcare from getting in.

Not sure how true that is (or whether Walton herself believes this), but I thought I'd mention it.

791:

If North Korea falls apart, China will have millions of refugees on their hands

to localize that NK/CCP vibe to the USA... not only is Mexico positioned along hundreds of miles of shared border on land there is Haiti which is an utter shitstorm and sure to worsen

then there's that classic source if refugees: Cuba

if shitstorms in those nations go up a couple notches on the freakout dial there could well be a flood of hungry-poor-desperate people trying to reach American soil

as bad as it is now, I'm trying to imagine what would be the rippling waves from a crisis if the numbers of refugees were to 'add a zero' or something worse than tenfold... thirtyfold!?

792:

We can assume that there will be large numbers of refugees moving away from the equator over the next 30 years. Many migrants now can be fairly described as climate refugees.

Given the violence occurring now against such migrants, my soul hurts to think of how that will escalate.

Historically humans haven't done will with that. In the long term it leads to increased diversity and cultural evolution. In the short term it leads to violence.

793:

if he cannot post the full amount then he cannot file an appeal

Not only that, but any of his possessions may be seized and sold to help pay for his civil fraud judgment. Such a sad situation for him... 😂

794:
But they think it is nice to know that "the option is there", and because they are from "USA, the best country in the world", it never occurs to them that Canada might not welcome them with open arms.

Hegemonic entitlement?

(See also: all those English people who say the UK should rejoin the EU, usually without considering for a single second if the EU might even have an opinion, nevermind that it could matter.)

795:

https://lite.cnn.com/2024/03/18/politics/trump-464-million-dollar-bond/index.html ,/i>

From which I excerpt, interestingly,

An insurance broker, Gary Giulietti, who testified for Trump during the civil fraud trial, signed an affidavit stating that securing a bond in the full amount “is a practical impossibility.”
Potential underwriters are seeking cash to back the bond, not properties, according to Trump’s lawyers.
Trump’s lawyers have asked the appeals court to delay posting the bond until his appeal of the case is over, arguing that the value of Trump’s properties far exceed the judgment...
[snip]
...Giulietti said some of the biggest underwriters have internal policies that limit them from securing a bond in excess of $100 million. None of them, he said, including some of the largest insurance companies in the world, will accept real estate – they are only comfortable taking cash or stock.


So I guess Trump could hold a fire sale for some of his properties to get the cash, taking, undoubtedly, a large hit.

796:

One argument I keep having ... is that the American political spectrum is truncated.

At the national level, yes. However, in some (relatively) localized US areas -- especially in specific large metro areas on the coasts, and in a relatively few inland locales with long-stranding local traditions -- there are still some highly visible local elected officials who are very active public proponents of what most US, Canadian, and EU voters would likely consider relatively "left-wing" positions.

This does not actually offset the recent sociopolitical effects of some of their more Neanderthal counterparts elsewhere in the US, but does suggest the importance of attention to some degree of detail in evaluating the putative causes -- and proposed solutions -- for some of our current concerns.

797:

I'm visualizing decrepit freighters and the occasional hijacked cruise ship utilized to transport refugees from uninhabitable lands to hostile beaches...

as just one of dozens, consider Allure of the Seas which typically carries 6780 paying passengers and 1500 crew... likely could handle twice that if everyone aboard was willing to do nothing but breathe and drink water for ten days...

now... imagine the scrum at the seaport as ninety thousand desperate people fight over fifteen thousand berths on an overcrowded Allure of the Seas...

multiply that by a hundred seaports...

798:

That likely applies for US people living in the US, yes. For those of us outside the self-referential echo chamber that is the US, it is a strange experience to see people like Joe Biden, or even Bernie Sanders or Alexandria Ocasio Cortez described as radical leftist extremists when their policies would fit comfortably into the right wing or center right wing parties in our countries.

Biden in particular would fit very well into the Conservative party of Canada, or possibly the right wing of the Liberal Party. He would not fit at all in any of the other 3 federal parties in Canada, for varying reasons.

I know less about the internal politics of other countries, but I gather that applies in various European countries as well.

799:

Q: can anyone sing the verses to "Asset Fire Sale"?

...and then there's "Buyer's Market Is A Seller's Bloodbath" and "Sold Off At Hefty Discount"

800:

Vulch @ 759:

Awww... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68600093

Too bad, so sad! 🤣🙃😂

801:

Pigeon @ 773:

"Bene Gesserit"

Is that "it will have been borne well" or "[that] it should have been borne well"? Or is the ambiguity a deliberate choice?

I'm not sure that reading a translation really conveys the reason for using Caesar to teach Latin. It's because the Latin is clear and straightforward, and doesn't confuse you with literary devices. Latin can be something of a write-only language if the writer so desires, and some of the Roman authors who were writing for effect could be rather like that. Caesar is not interested in messing about, and just wants to set down the record in decently military fashion.

Lingua Latina mortua est
sicut mortuus est ut possit esse
Romanos omnes interfecit
et nunc me occidere
Caesaris paulum
paulo Cicero
Iuvat ad replendum
quo insaniunt homines!

802:

Howard NYC @ 776:

https://lite.cnn.com/2024/03/18/politics/trump-464-million-dollar-bond/index.html

tee hee...

if he cannot post the full amount then he cannot file an appeal

NYTimes indicates == 30 == entities turned him down whereas other sources estimate he might have reached out to == 50-plus ==

which, given his certainty of being a candidate and (sadly) high probability of getting enough electoral college votes to become POTUS, is suggestive of how toxic he is... if it was anyone else but him then every bank/hedgefund/pensionfund would be sucking up to a candidate...

so...

tee hee, indeed

There's an outside chance he'll convince some Federalist Federal Judge to issue a stay and rule that he can appeal without posting the bond. His lawyers are proposing an 8th Amendment claim.

"Amendment VIII: Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted."

I hope there's none so STUPID/EVIL as to buy into that, but I'm not counting on it.

803:

Bobh @ 786:

Howard NYC.

I'm in NYC as well. Canada? Kids? Get real. Adopted abused/neglected minority kids from NY foster care. No way they're getting to Canada. What future do they have if Trump, and/or climate change floods my currently REALLY valuable property at the bottom of Park Slope Brooklyn. For the moment, they're now "middle class" and have US passports.

Charlie's dystopia vs theirs. Depressing. To arms at age 80? Jeez.

I ain't goin' nowhere. This is MY country and if I have to fight to keep it I will.

804:

JReynolds @ 791:

In one of her recent books, Jo Walton has a character muse that the main reason that Canada's immigration system is complex and expensive is to keep Americans looking for single-payer healthcare from getting in.

Not sure how true that is (or whether Walton herself believes this), but I thought I'd mention it.

I was thinking something about that today ... had an idea that a major contributor to homelessness in the U.S. is lack of healthcare.

How do sick people keep a job? And if someone can't work, how do they pay the rent?

805:

There have been plenty of political psychology studies that show people's political leanings tend to change when they move to a new locale, usually towards the mean of the population where they've moved.

It doesn't happen overnight, but we are social apes and if everyone around us seems to hold a specific point of view we start to adopt it ourselves. We see this in the trope of young people moving to the city and becoming 'liberal leftists', and I saw it when my parents bought a farm and shifted a little to the right.

By the same token they also shift the politics of the place they move to, if the immigrant group is large enough. And Americans outnumber us ten-to-one…

Did those political psychology studies account for people sorting themselves by moving to places they would rather live? I have a friend who was incredibly liberated moving to Toronto from PEI, because he could finally be himself and get a boyfriend without risking a beating. (Which shouldn't be a political issue, but sadly it is.) I have another friend whose wife refuses to ever move back to a small town, because she grew up in one and experienced a lot of anti-Chinese prejudice. (Which again shouldn't be a political issue, but listening to some of our Conservative politicians railing against immigrants and then conflating "immigrant" and "none-white"…)

Or people from small towns with monolithic worldviews discovering that the world is a bigger place and not feeling comfortable squashing themselves back into a small town again?

I hope those studies accounted for those (and other) confounding effects. (Not certain how, but I'm neither a political scientist nor psychologist.) I'll be in your neck of the woods next month; maybe we can chat about it over coffee.

806:

For those of us outside the self-referential echo chamber that is the US, it is a strange experience to see people like Joe Biden, or even Bernie Sanders or Alexandria Ocasio Cortez described as radical leftist extremists when their policies would fit comfortably into the right wing or center right wing parties in our countries.

Exactly the issue I (and some other non-Americans) were having trouble communicating. A number of otherwise very smart people seemed unable to understand that their left-wing radicals were advocating policies that were right-wing mainstream up here. It's like they couldn't understand that the labels "left" and "right" meant different things in different countries. Or that positions on issues clump differently in other countries.

807:

I think the correction re: Trump's bond is that he is appealing regardless. What he can't do without posting bond is stop New York from collecting on the penalty.

It's an interesting argument, actually. Trump's apparently saying that if he has to sell, he'll have to sell fast, which means anyone who's willing to buy the property will be bidding very, very low. If he wins the appeal, he won't be able to buy those properties back at the price he sold them for, so he'll lose money even if he wins the appeal.

On the other side, New York wants to have assets to seize if they win the appeal, so they're in favor of getting the penalty paid and holding it in escrow.

I'm on the state's side on this, mostly because I have no idea how much Trump's holdings are actually worth. So how much can he be hurt? Dunno.

What I almost hope happens is that Trump sucks the RNC candidate laundry system dry to deal with his cash shortfall. This in turn means that Republican candidates who would normally get party funds for their races get underfunded, as does Trump's campaign. If the Dems can take advantage of this, it's going to be a more pleasant election than I dare hope. I'm not betting on this, but I do want Trump to siphon the RNC dry right now.

808:

"I hope those studies accounted for those (and other) confounding effects. (Not certain how, but I'm neither a political scientist nor psychologist.) I'll be in your neck of the woods next month; maybe we can chat about it over coffee."

Well, it has been decades since I was in PoliSci grad school, but my thesis was on political opinion formation (through exposure to media). There was a lot of literature on it, mostly US-centric.

All of your points are meaningful and relevant however. I'll look forward to the coffee.

809:

So how much can he be hurt? Dunno.

A LOT. But both sides really don't want to get involved in the real estate except as collateral for a bond. But the possible bond issuers also don't want to go there. Keep reading.

Saying the tax codes involving real estate in the US are complicated is like saying the Atlantic Ocean has a lot of water.

You get to avoid a lot of taxes when selling capital assets in the US if you quickly buy like assests with the sale proceeds. (There are vast numbers of dead trees defining exactly what counts and not.) But if he sells some properties for this situation he will likely owe something like 40% of the profits in taxes. (Again, defining profit is a deep subject here.) And if there's a mortgage, and there always is in commercial real estate, (just because), then the taxes get paid then the mortgage paid off before any money is freed up. Which in a fast sale could turn negative fast.

So Trump, the NY government, and possible bond holders really don't want to start attaching the real estate. Bond holders expect to make good quickly if they have to pay a bond.

Now it gets real messy for Trump. He has said in public (and maybe in court) that he has over $400 million in cash lying around. If so getting to $600 million shouldn't be that hard. And the NY prosecutor will likely quickly drag everyone involved with Trump into court the day after the deadline, swear them in, and ask very pointed questions about where the money is? Or did Trump lie in court? Or ??? And there IS a court appointed overseaer of the Trump organization that might provide details. But it is my understanding that things are so convoluted (on purpose) that she's having trouble getting her head around it all.

AND there are stories floating around on "X" that Ivanka and Jarod will not take his call. I can easily believe it to be true as not.

And what does it mean / portend if he gets the bond from the Saudi's or Russia?

This saga is going to get way more soap operatic very quickly.

And with the interest accruing at over $100K per DAY. Which I have to think is more than the annual income of 99% of the world's population.

810:

there is Haiti which is an utter shitstorm and sure to worsen

It does seem odd that 300M people in the greatest country in the world etc can't somehow work out a way to make things nicer for 11M Haitians. And given your famed abilities in the fields of diplomacy and influence, persuade the perfidious French to give back some of the money they extorted? (hmm, that might set a perilous precedent)

Even Australia keeps a bit of aid and assistance flowing to neighbouring countries, rather than just paying them to torture our refugees. Our government seems to think that being surrounded by functioning, ideally democratic and somewhat capitalist countries is better than the alternative. Even if some of them are Muslim, or worse, brown-skinned (for very dark values of 'brown' in some cases, albeit not "we enslaved you and brought you here" black). For all that PNG is slowly transitioning from 1000-odd language groups into something resembling a nation, they are surprisingly civilised (they even have computer glitches! And antisocial media! https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-11/png-violence-explain/103309670)

811:

»It's like they couldn't understand that the labels "left" and "right" meant different things in different countries.«

Actually it's more fundamental: They literally have no idea what "different countries" mean and entail, having never been abroad, and never seen any reason to go abroad, because they have been indoctrinated to know that they live in "the worlds greatest country".

812:

From the excerpt cited by Kardashev:

An insurance broker, Gary Giulietti, who testified for Trump during the civil fraud trial, signed an affidavit stating that securing a bond in the full amount “is a practical impossibility.”

[snip]

Trump’s lawyers have asked the appeals court to delay posting the bond until his appeal of the case is over, arguing that the value of Trump’s properties far exceed the judgment.

Am I the only one being highly amused by how Trump's people are trying to communicate simultaneously that he (a) is really super rich, and (b) doesn't have any money, “honestly, guv'nor”?

And of course, not only the MAGAts, but also the US media will buy both narratives hook, line and sinker.

813:

JohnS
How do sick people keep a job? And if someone can't work, how do they pay the rent?
They don't - they go on the scrapheap.
THIS is what our tories are aiming for, here, too.

P H-K
EXACTLY
If some of you do not believe this go to the on-line open-board discussion site called "Quora" - fully international, but heavily loaded with ignorant/brainwashed USA-ians who haven't a fucking clue.
Informative & depressing.

814:

Britain had a Trump-style character a while back, a fat fuck name of Robert Maxwell. He played the leveraged acquisition game, raped the company pension funds and sailed off, literally, into the sunset on his yacht. Eventually things got a bit tight for him, the fast-money loans and mortgages came due and the authorities started looking really closely at his financial affairs (no Robert, double-entry bookkeeping doesn't mean two sets of books).

So one day he's on his yacht as the hounds close in, he goes to the stern and next time the crew go looking for him he's nowhere to be found. What a pity... that he didn't do this years before and saved millions of people from having to beg for charity in their old age.

815:

Re: 'And what does it mean / portend if he gets the bond from the Saudi's or Russia?'

I was thinking this too.

DT's a Putin fan and the GOP's already signaled that they're willing to stop aiding Ukraine. According to a couple of stories I read way back, his wealth was mostly based on self-promotion/his brand name and on not physical (real) real estate holdings so he might try the newest make-believe money/crypto as a source for posting bail. (He did try EFTs a few years back - my guess is it didn't take off/bring in as much real money as he'd hoped.)

Saudi Arabia - to let them finally stomp down pesky pro-democracy Qatar?

DT's managed to have some cases pushed back - if he can delay enough cases to after the election, the GOP (now headed by one of his family) could pass an act saying he doesn't have to pay. Based on how SCOTUS is erasing human rights, such an act would probably pass.

He'd probably try to tap drug lords for money (let them buy their way out of legal problems/jail) if he could.

816:

And what does it mean / portend if he gets the bond from the Saudi's or Russia?

If Trump shows up in court with a bag containing $460e6 in cash, would there be any requirement for him to disclose where he got it? To the Court, IRS, anybody?

817:

»And what does it mean / portend if he gets the bond from the Saudi's or Russia?«

I still expect him to sell the golf course in Scotland for half a billion dollar to a triple-sandwiched private equity fund, which will eventually be discovered to be controlled from either SA or RU.

818:

Re: '... be any requirement for him to disclose where he got it'

Seems that it's usually done via family or some Bond Agency so that as long as the court gets the money, no questions asked.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bail_in_the_United_States

And if disclosure were required, his track record skews: (a) stalling in providing the requested documentation, (b) lying. If he had a dog, he'd probably say the dog found it/dug it up and gave it to him.

Bond agencies apparently charge 10-20% of the surety bond - non-refundable - and it's a crime to skip away with the money. Hmmm ... so this industry is basically signaling that DT's a financial/flight risk.

819:

and then that big ol' hero's funeral in jerusalem

820:

the occasional hijacked cruise ship

The Queen Mary was built to carry 2038 passengers and 1174 crew when it was launched in 1934.

During WWII, it carried 16,000 people when used as a troop transport. Which suggests Allure of the Seas could probably cram 40,000 people on board.

275 trips and Haiti would be empty!

821:

would there be any requirement for him to disclose where he got it? To the Court, IRS, anybody?

There is Barbara Jones, a former federal judge, will stay on as a court-appointed monitor at the Trump Organization. She gets to see what comes in and out to make sure things don't vanish or appear magically until this is over.

And if a bank is involved in any way I suspect the $10K report rules will take effect. And I suspect there are rules about reporting large sums of money crossing the boarder.

As to the IRS, if someone shows an unexpected spike in income, they have the power to ask detailed questions about where it comes from. It's hard to imagine anyone considering half billion $$ not fitting into this.

822:

It does seem odd that 300M people in the greatest country in the world etc can't somehow work out a way to make things nicer for 11M Haitians.

Well we are dumping a lot of food and other basics into the place. When we can. But in so many ways it has become a country run by crime families. Who have no problem starving people or just shooting them if they cross the wrong street at the wrong time of day.

Aside from a military invasion (no thank you) or Tabitha wiggling her nose back and forth what do you suggest?

The US military did run a logistical airport aid operation after the 2010 earthquake. (After asking the locals if it would be OK.) Which impressed me and others as they set up a very complicated airlift operation in a day or so. Including a temporary control tower and radar setup. Think little parking space for planes or much of anything. So they have to fly in unload stuff shipped out and plane take out with no refueling in a few hours. Planes got assigned slots and with everything else needed lined up for each plane at specific times. A few free lance air operations got their nose out of joint as they were told as they got close to turn around and go home.

My wife knows a few people who grew up and have family in the Dominican Republic. They patrol the border almost as well as the old Soviets.

My son spent a week or so there over a decade ago. It was weird then. I suspect it may be come the American's Somalia.

And yes, the US AND European powers spent 200 years making a mess of the place. Repeatedly. But we are where we are.

823:

"Nothing can convince me, that Canada's government has not already drawn up a contingency plan, for how to handle if ten thousand USAnians, with their fundamentally deeply flawed mental model of the world, comes crashing across the border."

Liberal, educated Americans, the kind who'd want to cross into Canada, don't have that poor mental model of the world. We know exactly what's wrong with our country, and with both major political parties, and what's right about the rest of the world (particularly Western Europe.) The smart move for Canada is to let the educated, liberal Americans in and keep the yahoos out.

824:

what you Canadians needs be doing is be busy building a wall to keep out all that scum flowing up from da South

so... how you-all be saying "build the wall" in yer nattivve langguaggges?

{ embittered sarcasm = off }

825:

On the other hand the U.S. elected Alexandra Ocasio Cortez, of "Green New Deal" fame. If you ask Americans what we want without mentioning politics, our desires skew very liberal, and most Democrats would be thrilled to see the party move further to the left. (Liberal Democrats haven't forgotten Roosevelt, and would be thrilled to see his financial controls put back in place, for instance.)

The idea that the American Left thinks Biden represents us is every bit as ignorant as imagining that Clinton was a liberal.

826:

To expand a little on my previous two posts, American elections skew conservative for three reasons: The first is that whenever any state has a Republican majority, they gerrymander. The second is that Republicans work very hard to suppress voting by women and minorities (and just in general) because large turnouts usually benefit Democrats. (Consider Bush v. Gore or Trump vs. Clinton.) If those two things alone were fixed, those and nothing else, you simply wouldn't see a Republican House, and two elections I can think of would have brought us Democratic rather than Republican presidents. (You might see a Republican Senate, but it would be much less likely.) The third factor affecting our politics is Right-wing radio and TV; Fox News, Etc., doing everything they can to raise the level of White, racist fear, because a substantial minority of White people will happily vote against their own interests if you can frighten them hard-enough about the ebil hordsa manorities and shit.

But there's also a huge minority, somewhere between 25 and 40 percent of the US, who'd love to see us adopt policies similar to those of an ordinary EU country, (though you couldn't safely phrase it that way and get many votes.)

827:

PHK @ 786 Canada's contingency plans.
I wonder if they plan to build a wall. The best wall, ever...,

787 Robert Prior - "US broken mental model". Makes us look/act crazy.

There's the Evangelical/Dominionist "City on a Hill"/Prosperity Gospel/ Christian country model. Then there's the Horatio Alger, "Raise yourself by your bootstraps" model.

I would argue capitalism is an addiction powered by the psychological mechanism of intermittent reinforcement. Slot machines etc pay off intermittently/randomly. The gambler says, "If I just find the right system, I'll be rich". Capitalism works the same way (actually religion does as well) A few people strike it rich, become famous as celebrities. Most people don't, but BELIEVE they too can become billionaires.

I know a guy in Texas who briefly was homeless, and by luck and hard work built a successful trucking company. Really, really nice guy. He absolutely thinks he is not a billionaire because he was lazy and didn't work hard enough. Everything good is based on an individual basis. He denies there are any structural factors involved, so he ignores social policy (eg tax write-offs for "job creators", red-lining for minorities - ie restricting where they can get housing) that advantages some, and disadvantages others.

The two threads, capitalism and prosperity gospel come together - the virtuous rich are god's favorites deserving of more breaks, and the poor are sinners, in need of admonition and even punishment to motivate them to work harder.

828:

Right. But something like fifty percent of the U.S. would tell you the trucking company guy is a gigantic asshole.

Yes, a large number of Americans have a broken mental model of the world. But a large part of the world has a broken mental model about us. (Consider the large number of people in Australia in the mid-eighties who assumed I must be a Reagan voter! Not so! Not by a long shot. I voted for Jesse Jackson in the primary, thank you very much!)

829:

ugh...

TrumpBitCoin™...?

or just call it ==> FraudCoin™...?

what is the utterly delightfulness in all this mess... hot steamy mess... nobody has a clear understanding of actual revenues (and operating expenditures) of Trump-controlled assets... never mind calculating reliable estimations of fair market valuations of those assets...

best of all...?

this hot steamy mess is self-inflicted wounds and Trump will be gnawed upon by his rage that he did decades of deliberate fraud and now when he needs his wealth the most it is all at risk

hence the newly written songs by Taylor Swift and Weird Al Yankovic

"Asset Fire Sale"?

"Buyer's Market Is A Seller's Bloodbath"

"My Successes Sold Off At Hefty Discount"

of course Trump is now for sale to bidder at any price thus making him PPPOTUS

Putin's Puppet President of the United States

830:

The first is that whenever any state has a Republican majority, they gerrymander.

So do D's. I've been gerrymandered in North Carolina since I moved here 35 years ago. They D's were just lazy about it and let power slip from their grasp just as computerized redistricting got big. So the R's who managed to take over the state legislature in 2010 locked themselves into power every since. But over the last 40 years I think NC legislative districts for Congress have been involved in more lawsuits than anywhere else in the country. Half the time drawn by D's, half the time by R's.

But D's do it just as much as R's. Just not as well. Just now New York has a D locked in setup.

As to Bush v Gore. Ralph took 30K D votes in Florida. To what end? Bush "won" by less than 1000. And the places where all the trouble was were both locked in run by D's for decades. They just got lazy and wound up with a mess of vote counting where they couldn't product the same vote totals no mater how many re-counts they did. (In addition to a terrible poke a hole in the car ballot system that was bad when invented 20+ years earlier.) It didn't matter locally or much at all state wide till 2000. But when it did mater they had a mess that could not be fixed.

But I will agree that gerrymandering is bad. And voter suppression worse.

831:

ditto

what people want and they say aloud are rarely lined up closely

and when it comes to "social welfare" what is the second-most single biggest source of resistance to implementation is people not wanting that government money spent on anybody not in their personal demographic

"porkbarrel for me not for thee"

832:

And given your famed abilities in the fields of diplomacy and influence, persuade the perfidious French to give back some of the money they extorted? (hmm, that might set a perilous precedent)

That'll never happen, because it might raise questions about money extorted by American banks (with backing from the Marines).

The United States occupation of Haiti began on July 28, 1915, when 330 U.S. Marines landed at Port-au-Prince, Haiti, after the National City Bank of New York convinced the President of the United States, Woodrow Wilson, to take control of Haiti's political and financial interests. The July 1915 invasion took place following years of socioeconomic instability within Haiti that culminated with the lynching of President of Haiti Vilbrun Guillaume Sam by a mob angered by his decision to order the executions of political prisoners. The invasion and subsequent occupation was promoted by growing American business interests in Haiti, especially the National City Bank of New York, which had withheld funds from Haiti and paid rebels to destabilize the nation through the Bank of the Republic of Haiti with an aim at inducing American intervention.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_occupation_of_Haiti

833:

Actually it's more fundamental: They literally have no idea what "different countries" mean and entail, having never been abroad, and never seen any reason to go abroad, because they have been indoctrinated to know that they live in "the worlds greatest country".

Some of the individuals I'm thinking of have been abroad, having travelled more widely than I have.

The Sherlock Holmes line about "seeing but not observing" springs to mind, but I would expect practicing scientists to be pretty good at observation…

834:

AOC would fit quite well into the left wing of the center right Liberal party of Canada. She might find our democratic socialist party a bit too left for her taste (though they do have some impact in government at the moment).

That said, given an outlet she might well move further left than the 'Green New Deal', which is a remarkably centrist policy platform anywhere outside the US.

835:

But there's also a huge minority, somewhere between 25 and 40 percent of the US, who'd love to see us adopt policies similar to those of an ordinary EU country, (though you couldn't safely phrase it that way and get many votes.)

Which is why I don't think it would be a smart move for Canada to let them in — because a large number of them demonstrably wouldn't actually vote for those policies.

Keep in mind that both Saunders and AOC would be centrist politicians up here. Anyone who thinks that they are "too radical" or "too far left" would be on our political right.

836:

Alexandra Ocasio Cortez, of "Green New Deal" fame

I think this rather demonstrates my point, because the Green New Deal isn't considered left-wing up here — it's a centrist position. (I think the same would apply in the EU, but I'll let a European comment on that.)

837:

How about the original basis for them, and Green Lantern, and the Jedi: a Lensman of the Galactic Patrol?

Quite off topic, but a few weeks back I stumbled upon a long thread about adapting the Lensman saga to modern cinema. (We finally have the special effects technology!) TL;DR - it needs television series amounts of time, it needs a serious budget, and it would be starkly astounding.

838:

So long as they adapt Thorne Smith's Lensmen as the final work of the Lens series.

839:

I used the Green New Deal to point at AOC for people who might not have heard much about her - it's her main claim to fame - NOT as an example of a particularly leftist program.

To put things in better perspective, if the U.S. were to suddenly adopt the various legal rules and customs of a major EU power like France or Germany twenty-five percent of our population would immediately feel better about their lives, and another ten to fifteen percent of the US population would like things better in a couple years, particularly if great care was taken in the transition between the two systems. The rest of the U.S. would probably be unhappy, even as the lives of most of us would substantially improve.

840:

...and zero likelihood of originating text being held to closely

racist overtones toward aliens resembling various 193os stereotypes might be shrugged off but the deep-in-bone sexism not gonna fly

but yeah... honking huge booms and effortless superheroing and continent sized starships

given the underlying theme of uber-mensch for sure any 'n all actors selected will be beefcake 'n cheesecake

uniforms as well as spacesuits will be a deliberate blending of latex and spandex... fitted so tightly as to qualify as second skin

distracting the audience from cardboard thin characters and/or leaden dialogue

something I'd watch but with a measure of guilt in the oooogling

841:

I suspect post WW2 German policy could be used to guess what FDR might've wanted the New Deal to be, if he hadn't had to work with Southern Democrats*. *And the resultant compromise was still too much for their Grandchildren to bear!

842:

Re: 'Allure of the Seas could probably cram 40,000 people on board.'

There's a large inventory of abandoned ships that could be renovated - fuel could be an issue though. I think we discussed these ship graveyards once before as potential floating cities.

https://www.marineinsight.com/environment/10-largest-ship-graveyards-in-the-world/

DavidL @ 821:

Re: '... the $10K report rules will take effect.'

Considering the dodgyness of that corp, would this rule kick in if $9,999.99 were sent in/out every few seconds? Just wondering what possible letter-of-the-law (vs. intent of the law) work-arounds might be pursued.

843:

»Liberal, educated Americans, the kind who'd want to cross into Canada, don't have that poor mental model of the world. We know exactly what's wrong with our country, and with both major political parties, and what's right about the rest of the world«

Precisely what I wrote: They like to think they have the option, but their indoctrination still leaves them with a solid feeling that it would be a step down, so they do not.

And as several people already pointed out above: Liberal, educated USAnians are called "reactionary assholes with a big side order of hidden racist" in the rest of the western world.

844:

I used the Green New Deal to point at AOC for people who might not have heard much about her - it's her main claim to fame - NOT as an example of a particularly leftist program.

My problem with the Green New Deal is not its policies, it's that the Progressives on the ground in San Diego at least were aggressively clueless at how to build a coalition to get it passed and the effort rapidly died. Don't forget that the problems US Democrats have getting anything done aren't particularly hyped. We do suck at fundamentals. I'd blame the self-labeled socialists for the failure of the GND here, because they (mostly) seem to want to LARP all the problems the 19th Century communists had in getting anything done too, for some reason (/being obtuse out of politeness).

845:

I kinda want to hear what an "ordinary EU country" is and what their policies might be, to be honest. :-)

846:

RE: Lensman remake.

Yeah, I vaguely remember the 1980s anime version. Mostly how bad it was.

The problem with the Lensman is the same problem as the John Carter movie: it's not popular at the moment, and it inspired so much SF that if it were redone to modern standards, it would come across as trite and derivative. It would inspire learned social media posts like "The Lens is just a metaphor for smart phones," and "after two decades of social media, who wants telepathy?"

To change the target, what would be interesting is if the did Earthsea properly, meaning with black and hispanic actors. There's a deep bench of talented non-white actors, Black Panther and others have shown that there's a market for this kind of fantasy done right, and a quasi-medieval setting can be translated into West African or Ethiopian setting without a lot of fuss (film on the Canary Islands, perhaps). And LeGuin is still beloved and in print. And the way she flipped the script between the first three books and the last three would also play well these days.

847:

We were discussing regional (American) accents lately & I ran across this one:

I Noticed Something Strange On A Map of the Battle of Bunker Hill! [YouTube]

Classic "Bahstan" accent 😏

Have fun.

848:

it inspired so much SF that if it were redone to modern standards, it would come across as trite and derivative

Shortly after the first LOTR movie came out, I saw this on Usenet (not vouching for the exact words):

"Why is this movie such a big deal? All characters are complete stereotypes, they could have come straight out of Player's Handbook!"

849:

impossible circumstances if more than a dozen or so mega hulls are carrying 100,000+ refugees

not politically feasible to sink 'em and limited viability of passengers given horrific conditions sets a clock ticking downwards that if ignored there'd be rather well fed sharks

for sure as anybody dies, given lack of freezer space, "burial at sea"... something that had been documented during the evil of the slave trade, of sharks observed swimming behind overcrowded slaveships crossing the Atlantic getting so well fed they ended up too bloated to swim

...which by itself becomes a shit-ton of blood porn on YT and linked to by advocates for refugees... tick tock...

850:

Heteromeles @ 807:

I think the correction re: Trump's bond is that he is appealing regardless. What he can't do without posting bond is stop New York from collecting on the penalty.

It's an interesting argument, actually.

It may be an interesting argument, but it's bogus.

If you or I were in a situation vis-a-vis having to sell all of our property to come up with the ready to appeal a court ordered judgment, the courts would have no sympathy for our plight.

It's put up or shut up!

Should be the same for him as it would be for you or me.

But I'm also sure they're forum shopping for another judge cannon even as I write ...

851:

My understanding goes as follows (and I'd be happy to learn more.)

Government-run healthcare with half the cost and better outcomes than in the U.S., with every citizen who pays their taxes being covered. (This is incredibly freeing in the economic sense!)

Judges and prosecutors who don't have to run for office.

Better privacy protections.

Much stronger unions than in the U.S.

Legal abortions up to a reasonable time after impregnation.

Generally much better rights for women.

A much better educational system (the insistence that everyone learn another language is invaluable, just by itself) and a much better culture around that educational system.

Religion has much less influence. (Not everywhere, I know.)

A general understanding that the profit motive isn't everything.

There's probably more, but that's what I can think of in 15 minutes or so.

852:

Nojay @ 814:

So one day he's on his yacht as the hounds close in, he goes to the stern and next time the crew go looking for him he's nowhere to be found. What a pity... that he didn't do this years before and saved millions of people from having to beg for charity in their old age.

... and left his daughter to hook up with Jeffery Epstein & Prince Andrew. Yeah, THAT Maxwell.

853:

RE: Trump.

Yes, lawyers kowtow to billionaires far more than they do to the likes of us.

Thinking about it a bit, I don't think any foreign country will bail him out on this. $500 million is a lot of munitions, and those would be useful. Trump's only chance to beat this ruling is to become dictator. If he pulls that off, no one's getting their $500 million back, but they will need those munitions.

More cost-effective to invest in paralyzing the US via the Congress or Supreme Court, really.

854:

SS @ 837
TV series - I see from adverts that Netflix are about to release their take on The Three-Body Problem

H
Long ago, I went to a (special) showing of the "adaptation" of The Farthest Shore ... I walked out in disgust at about 10-12 minutes.
FUCK Studio Ghibli ... I don't think I want to see anything else of theirs, after that shambles.

855:

Kardashev @ 816:

"And what does it mean / portend if he gets the bond from the Saudi's or Russia?"

If Trump shows up in court with a bag containing $460e6 in cash, would there be any requirement for him to disclose where he got it? To the Court, IRS, anybody?

He'd have account where the "cash" came from. Even if it's a cashier's check there'd be a paper trail.

I just don't think Putin is willing to invest that much in DT. Putin's kind of cash strapped himself at the moment. Bailing DT out in his civil case ain't gonna help either way in November & DT is notorious for not paying his debts ... so there's no reason for Putin to step in.

FWIW, Putin didn't spend that much in 2016, but that investment is still paying dividends. It doesn't look like Trumpolini has much more to offer even if he does get elected in November.

The GQP in Congress sold out for a whole lot less (didn't even get "a mess of pottage").

... and what's really in it for the Saudis? What benefit can they expect to get in return that's worth half a billion dollars?

Don't they already have "Javanka" on the hook for a couple billion?

856:

“Government-run healthcare with half the cost and better outcomes than in the U.S., with every citizen who pays their taxes being covered” I’m fairly sure that the “who pays their taxes” is not part of the deal in general. More like (and certainly should be) “everyone who needs it” with just maybe a “foreign nationals visiting on holiday should pay via their travel insurance “. Though honestly, hospitals etc shouldn’t even have a mechanism for taking money.

And Quora - ah yes, the website dedicated to proving that not only are there in fact ‘stupid questions ‘ but that there is a near infinite number of people willing to ask them, in publ, repeatedly.

857:

I dug fairly deeply into the issue of government run healthcare at one point, and 'you must pay your taxes' was something in almost all the cases I looked at. Whether it's enforced is another matter, but it was part of the law.

858:

Just about to watch a documentary about the Willy's Chocolate Experience on Channel 5.

859:

Here in Canada health care is provided to everyone who is a legal resident, mostly without fees (though a couple of provinces have a fixed monthly fee). Here in BC I see a sign posted at the Emergency Room that lists the prices for visiting US persons who need health care. Mindboggling for us, but probably a relative bargain compared to the prices in the US.

I'd like there to be no individual price on health care of any sort (because obviously), but I do understand Canadian institutions not wanting to subsidize the gross miscarriage of humanity that is the US 'medical system' by providing free health care to border crossers.

We are currently in the process of adding a national dental plan (finally) and some form of national pharmacare plan, with endless provincial variation. These are good things, brought about (like most good federal policies) by the expedient of the ruling center right party needing the support of the democratic socialist party (NDP) to stay in power. Also the PM being past his sell-by date and wanting to cement a legacy that compares to his father.

860:

SFReader @ 818:

Re: '... be any requirement for him to disclose where he got it'

Seems that it's usually done via family or some Bond Agency so that as long as the court gets the money, no questions asked.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bail_in_the_United_States

And if disclosure were required, his track record skews: (a) stalling in providing the requested documentation, (b) lying. If he had a dog, he'd probably say the dog found it/dug it up and gave it to him.

Bond agencies apparently charge 10-20% of the surety bond - non-refundable - and it's a crime to skip away with the money. Hmmm ... so this industry is basically signaling that DT's a financial/flight risk.

He's not posting bail - except in the criminal cases against him, I know for sure in Georgia he did use a bail bondsman, but that's a whole different story ...

Bail is a guarantee the accused will show up for trial. If the accused does show up the bail bond company gets the bond refunded by the court after the trial. If the accused skips out, the bail bond company has to track down the accused and get him back in custody before they can get the bond refunded.

What he has to have in the New York civil case is a whole different thing - a Surety Bond is a guarantee that the financial obligation (the court ordered judgment) will be met if he loses the appeal.

Basically he's trying to buy insurance against loss and the insurance companies want cash up front before they'll take on the risk.

... and it looks like all the insurance companies have already concluded he IS going to lose the appeal, so the risk is too great at ANY price.

It's a sucker bet (if you will) and the insurance companies are not going to take it.

861:

Troutwaxer @ 825:

The idea that the American Left thinks Biden represents us is every bit as ignorant as imagining that Clinton was a liberal.

OTOH, Biden is a hell of a lot closer to being a New Deal Democrat than Obama or Clinton (either one of 'em) ever were.

862:

David L @ 830:

As to Bush v Gore. Ralph took 30K D votes in Florida. To what end? Bush "won" by less than 1000.

Depends on who's counting and which votes they were allowed to count (recount ... no account).

There's a solid argument that Bush would have LOST by a couple hundred votes if the state-wide recount ordered by the Florida Supreme Court had been carried out.

863:

»I kinda want to hear what an "ordinary EU country" is and what their policies might be, to be honest. :-)«

From the top of my head:

No Death penalty (because even courts make mistakes)

No elected judges (because that would be stupid)

No judges appointed for life (--//--)

Actual democracy (ie: not just voting for the people who get to vote)

No gerrymandering (because people elect politicians, not the other way around)

Universal and affordable healthcare (because DUH!)

20% of the tax receipts are not spent on military, weapons and wars.

Much less than 21 separate intelligence agencies per country

Owning weapons are not a "right"

/nobody/ can get an "Open Carry" permit.

No "Stand your ground" laws.

Spending money is not speech.

When you loose in court, you pay the winners costs.

No "civil forfeiture"

No surplus military assault kit sold cheaply to police forces.

Very few monopolies. (This one has /huge/ benefits, for instance we never have food-recalls for millions of units of food)

No "credit reports" to ru(i)n your life.

GDPR

But is it perfect ?

Absolutely not!

864:

Long ago, I went to a (special) showing of the "adaptation" of The Farthest Shore

Studio Ghibli's not completely bad, but I have no desire to see that one. Or the SyFy adaptation, more than the few minutes I did see. Why do They keep making Ged very, very white (/rhetorical question)? And it only gets worse from there.

Le Guin had some thoughts about both adaptations:

Ghibli: https://www.ursulakleguin.com/adaptation-tales-of-earthsea

and

SyFy: https://slate.com/culture/2004/12/ursula-k-le-guin-on-the-tv-earthsea.html

Both are worth reading.

865:

»I just don't think Putin is willing to invest that much in DT.«

Saudi Arabia might, and they rutinely spent as much on other forms of entertainment...

866:

Robert Prior @ 835:

"But there's also a huge minority, somewhere between 25 and 40 percent of the US, who'd love to see us adopt policies similar to those of an ordinary EU country, (though you couldn't safely phrase it that way and get many votes.)"

Which is why I don't think it would be a smart move for Canada to let them in — because a large number of them demonstrably wouldn't actually vote for those policies.

That's odd. Wouldn't THEY have to become Canadian citizens before they were allowed to vote? Canada welcomes refugees from all over the world, why NOT from the U.S.?

Keep in mind that both Saunders and AOC would be centrist politicians up here. Anyone who thinks that they are "too radical" or "too far left" would be on our political right.

Sanders (not "Saunders") & AOC ** both pursue policies they have some hope of getting through Congress. Either or both might be somewhat more to the left if they COULD BE. You really can't judge their policy positions in terms of Canadian political parties because they're not in Canada.

** And why HIS last name and HER initials? It should either be "BS & AOC" or "Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez"

... and why not alphabetical order?

867:

SFReader @ 842:

Re: '... the $10K report rules will take effect.'

Considering the dodgyness of that corp, would this rule kick in if $9,999.99 were sent in/out every few seconds? Just wondering what possible letter-of-the-law (vs. intent of the law) work-arounds might be pursued.

Structuring Cash Transactions under $10,000

Former Speaker Of The United States House Of Representatives Charged With Structuring Cash Withdrawals To Evade Currency Transaction Reporting Requirements ...

868:

Putin's Investment: 2016 was pretty cheap, and he met his goal - destabilizing the US. But that's not the same as absolute chaos. IIRC Putin actually said he preferred Biden.

Makes sense. Biden is predictable. Trump thought he could A-bomb a hurricane, and kept wanting to know why we couldn't solve all our foreign relations problems with nukes. Putin allies: NK, Iran? And then there's Mexico. We could get rid drug dealers and bloodstream polluting illegal immigrants all in one mighty blow. And nobody would ever know it was us.

If (well, when) Putin intervenes again in the US it might be to arrange some non-obvious poison in Don's Big Macs. Heart Attack! A martyr to American Greatness is likely a better asset than a raving lunatic Trump with nukes.

869:

timrowledge @ 856:

“Government-run healthcare with half the cost and better outcomes than in the U.S., with every citizen who pays their taxes being covered” I’m fairly sure that the “who pays their taxes” is not part of the deal in general. More like (and certainly should be) “everyone who needs it” with just maybe a “foreign nationals visiting on holiday should pay via their travel insurance “. Though honestly, hospitals etc shouldn’t even have a mechanism for taking money.

Thing is, universal health care would have societal benefits far above the "cost" to the taxpayer ... the problem is quantifying them in a way the average "politician" can understand (ignoring for a moment the substantial portion "modern" American politicians who don't give a shit for society as long as they can line their own pockets).

I think there'd be less homelessness for one thing if fewer people who can't afford medical care under our current system didn't get so sick they couldn't work.

And business could be more competitive if the cost of providing "health insurance" was eliminated ... or at least spread more equitably.

Even if Big Pharma and Big Medicine did have to find honest work.

And Quora - ah yes, the website dedicated to proving that not only are there in fact ‘stupid questions ‘ but that there is a near infinite number of people willing to ask them, in publ, repeatedly.

There are the occasional questions that rise above ... and the rest can sometimes be amusing if I'm in a certain sardonic mood.

870:

that's in the same category as the statistically average human whose lifetime medical expenses are typically covered by carefully uniform budgeting by governmental entities which never (not ever) make any mistakes

871:

Re: Typical EU countries

The report below is coming out tomorrow and is likely to list most of the variables that define a typical EU country.

https://worldhappiness.report/

There are some atypical European countries:

Switzerland - highest incidence of gun ownership and per capita murder rate

Hungary, Belarus, and Russia - on the road to full-on autocracy

Plus the very, very small - Vatican City, Monaco, Gibraltar, San Marino

Wondering how the WHR will compare with the democracy ranking.

https://www.democracymatrix.com/ranking

JohnS @ 867:

Thanks for the link - yeah, exactly the 'rules vs. principles' dodge I'd expect DT to try.

I looked up him up (JOHN DENNIS HASTERT) and Wikipedia page included the below item:

'In 2016, he was sentenced to 15 months in prison for financial offenses related to the sexual abuse of teenage boys.[2][3]'

As Speaker (3rd in line for the OO) he's another shining example of the integrity of the GOP party.

872:

Considering the dodgyness of that corp, would this rule kick in if $9,999.99 were sent in/out every few seconds? Just wondering what possible letter-of-the-law (vs. intent of the law) work-arounds might be pursued.

Yes. There is a concept in the US banking regulations called "Know Your Customer". For a while now banks in the US have been told they have all of these nice computer systems and they need to be programmed to watch for such things. Like totals per day / week and lots of things in short amount of time. Or they will face steep fines and can be indited with their customer at times.

"Know Your Customer" also makes it harder to walk into a bank, drop a few $1000 on the counter and open an account. You need proof of who you are or what business this really is. And if you appear to be money laundering they may come after you and ask questions. They did to me a few years ago. For years now I have paid EVERYTNING with a credit card then pay off the cards monthly. So my business account looks suspicious at times. Money flows in then out but never to a specific merchant or person. I have deposits set up from clients or via Stripe and the outflows are 99.9% of the time to other banks. All done electronically. They had me come in a few years ago and explain who I was and what was I doing. No big deal. But none of my transaction got past $10K either. Most were not even close. My account was opened 20 or so years ago. And I actually go into a bank only to get them to notarize something. I suspect a note was put in my file. I've not heard back.

Also, do the math. There would be well over 50,000 transactions to stay under $10K each. That is a LOT of transaction for any bank to process for one or a few accounts.

873:

Shudda proofread - yikes!

Apologies ...

874:

Re: 'Or they will face steep fines and can be indited with their customer at times.'

Know Your Customer sounds like a good policy but has it got any teeth: have any banks ever been audited under this policy and called up on this?

875:

There's a solid argument that Bush would have LOST by a couple hundred votes if the state-wide recount ordered by the Florida Supreme Court had been carried out.

Yes. Or no. But a third recount might, well really, would have given a new set of totals yet again.

The problem with the INCREDIBLY STUPID ballot system in those two very large Democratic party run Florida counties was that ballots that didn't have those chads totally popped out were put under a subjective review. And if you gave the review folks they same stack of must be examined punch card ballots repeatedly they would come up with a different count each time. Now add in that there were large numbers of these and large number of teams of subjective teams analyzing the ballots.

This is a major reason the US Congress passed national standards for what options for ballots could be used in national elections. The point being to remove the subjective nature of a recount as much as possible. (Moz and his genitalia marked ballots in Aus comes to mind.) And if you wanted to take some of the huge pile of cash to buy new machines for your state and local ballot counting you had to follow those standards.

The biggest issue I have is that they allowed touch screen systems. These are being phased out as some of us keep yelling that a touch screen system is a beta test. Georgia almost got caught with this in 2020 (I think) and had to issue new "programming" a few days ahead of the election. Anyone here think this is a "good" thing?

876:

"Le Guin had some thoughts about both adaptations:

Ghibli: https://www.ursulakleguin.com/adaptation-tales-of-earthsea

and

SyFy: https://slate.com/culture/2004/12/ursula-k-le-guin-on-the-tv-earthsea.html

Both are worth reading."

Sirislee? Even if you have never read either of the books (because Ursula Le Guin) or watched the adaptions (also because ULeG)?

877:

RE: Lensman remake.

Would it be done decently as Foundation is being done. (At least in my opinion.)

Or be done like the John Carter on Mars movie a decade or so back.

The current Foundation being done by Apple takes the major plot lines of the books and makes them into a coherent modern TV series. Copying the text from the books to a movie script would have made a mess of it.

878:

as much I enjoy dumping on Donald Trump -- he's earned scorn one evil day at a time -- what ought never have happened was him gaining political power in the first place

Charles Coughlin[1] was a priest whose radio sermons ought to have never been able to gain so much potency if not for there being a fertile ground for his vile bile to take root

Charles Lindbergh for a red hot minute was going to end up POTUS, given backroom deals supporting him by such rancid bigots such as Henry Ford

in the 1930s we got Roosevelt instead of Lindbergh...

...in the 2010s we got Trump instead of Clinton

maybe we'll get AOC (or another further to left progressive) in the 2050s... if there's enough of a shift

[1] https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/charles-e-coughlin

879:

I suspect that Charlie will be annoyed with all of this banking and Trump stuff when he gets up in the AM. I'm going to drop out of this set of related topics until at least Monday when things hit a trip wire deadline.

880:

»The report below is coming out tomorrow and is likely to list most of the variables that define a typical EU country.«

The one thing which I have never been able to explain to USAnians, is how much shitty healthcare, gun-nuts and contingency-lawyer cost them measured in "peace of mind".

As a EUranian, one does not constantly, as in 24*365, worry that a necessary visit to the hospital will send one into bankruptcy, that your kids will be shot at school or that somebody is going to sue you for some ridiculous shit, and leave you saddled with the huge lawyers bills, even if you win.

But there is no way to communicate that kind of peace of mind, because USAnians have never experienced anything like it, they literally do not even know that peace of mind is something that can exists.

They read articles about "the happiest country in the world" and about "hygge" and all these other foreign phenomena, but they do not understand them, because if they try to project themselves into the situations described, they would would still be worrying about healtcare, guns and lawyers /all the time/.

881:

Know Your Customer sounds like a good policy but has it got any teeth: have any banks ever been audited under this policy and called up on this?

Not sure about the US system, but similar regulations exist in the UK (you can't open a bank account unless you're already known to the bank or present proof of identity and legal residence or are transferring your account(s) from another bank that knows you). IIRC it's part of a global regime of anti money laundering regulations. EU included, naturally.

882:

"The one thing which I have never been able to explain to USAnians, is how much shitty healthcare, gun-nuts and contingency-lawyer cost them measured in "peace of mind"."

I had no trouble understanding that.

883:

The other day, I saw that the DNC had $140M (or was it $150M), while the RNC had... $40M. Unusual.

Now, if I could spend some of that, I'd make heads explode: buy two weeks worth of prime-time commercials... on Faux Noise, and just give actual news of the economy, etc.

884:

You wrote "...a militarized religio-fascist state with crumbling infrastructure..."

Oh, the US, esp if TFG wins?

885:

Same here. It helps that I live about 5.5mi outside the DC Beltway...

886:

The number of people in the US living in actual small towns that are not suburbs or exurbs is tiny. There are no jobs there, esp. since farming no longer requires huge numbers of workers.

So the move to/near cities. And whatever they do, most of their kids don't want to go back.

887:

"The greatest country in the world can't..." - why would we do that? I mean, how does it make us money?

Remember, the US has mostly blockaded Cuba, 90 mi away, since Castro kicked out the nasty dictator Batista and the Mob lost Havana and their casinos.

888:

Hey, you forgot to add "and they, the US, will pay for it!"

889:

Know Your Customer sounds like a good policy but has it got any teeth

I think it's more that compliance is so easy to check and the checks done so often that banks have every reason to expect that failure to comply will be quickly detected. A great many court cases incidentially involve "how did you get that bank account" so any systematic failure to KYC would be quickly uncovered. In Oz we get occasional media mentions of people selling stolen bank accounts, and the wave of identity theft attacks that started about the same time suggests that illegally obtained bank accounts gained value.

One interesting thing is that Paypal and other "not banking" services are exempt from this law (or perhaps just above it as they are with so many other laws). Or at least I've never knowingly done a KYC check for my Paypal account, and AFAIK those are not transitive - I just opened an account with a new bank and had to go through the whole needlessly badly designed process (by the bank in question). Although they did seem to outsource much of it so I assume the process is sufficiently annoying that specialists make sense.

890:

No. Every citizen being cover, period.

Some who shall remain nameless for legal reasons (actually) just fell through the cracks. They were on SSI for many years, and hit 65... and hadn't paid enough quarters in taxes... so, nope, no Medicare.

Screw that crap.

891:

I think it's more that it regularly comes up in shocked terms. One of the cliche's is "but how do you ... without a gun" where the answer is ... the same way Americans without guns do. But the Americans without gun's don't loudly ask the question so don't get noticed.

And there are enough ex-Americans* who spend time going "wow, taxes are high" and "gosh, even poor people have access to healthcare" and so on. And some of them put out explainers pointing out that when "health insurance" and "retirement savings" are built into the taxes the actual percentage you pay is likely lower than in the USA (but the downside is the tax-based systems don't have large numbers of hugely profitable private companies doing those things and thus their GDP per capita is lower...)

* likely still citizens for all intensive porpoises. That and a fish will get you something, probably mugged for the fish...

892:

The one thing which I have never been able to explain to USAnians, is how much shitty healthcare, gun-nuts and contingency-lawyer cost them measured in "peace of mind".

I most certainly understand it.

But then, I am not a native-born USAian.

893:

long time ago I worked at [REDACTED BANK] where despite their policies in support of AML (anti-money laundering) efforts started post-911 they refused to try to do any datamining that would automate a continual loop for spotting low hanging fruit...

my contribution which got me dragged into the hallway to be told to STFU was to assemble a listing of "vanity addresses" such as 200 Park Avenue, 2 Broadway, et al, which would be added to as new ones appeared... along with Mail Box Etc storefronts, which offer an ordinary address but are oft utilized for mail-forwarding

that, and also counting all the customers who have the same address such as 197 West 57 ST (random example)... 50 or 75 being plausible but if ever there was an apartment building with 700 supposed residents that was something to dig into...

I was told to STFU since if the bank located any anomalies they'd have to both look into it as well file a report on anomalies... activities costing resources and potentially pissing off customers

they had as their preference, not to turn over rocks, just do the legally mandated minimums...

894:

In the early years of this century I was staying with a friend who lived near Chicago, and we did a fair bit of driving around looking at garage sales and auctions. After a few days I asked him why none of the people doing gardening work were white. "I've never noticed that" said a very intelligent man who had literally never given it a second thought. For a pot-smoking Republican he was a lovely guy.

He was actually the same guy who came to me one day after receiving his monthly propaganda:"It says here that since gun control laws were introduced into Australia shooting deaths have gone up 300%!"

"That's probably about 9 people".

"What?"

We have very few shootings and a 300% increase will be less than a dozen people"

"Really??

"Oh and 6 of those were the Victorian police (who had a very bad year that year).

It's all about context.

895:

as an American, sadly I've got zillions of stories about medical care gone wrong

watching the UK NHS getting trashed by those amoral bastards has been a source of vile bile for me

maybe after the Republicans are done setting fire to their own feet we'll be able to fix such horrid things

896:

Spotted on the internets, Elon Musk's next rocket venture after Starship with a boost (so to speak) from Tesla's battery technology -- the TOXMAX rocket motor. Eye-popping specific impulse of over 470 plus maximum environmental damage from the exhaust since the fuel is a mixture of 90% metallic lithium with the addition of 10% cesium-137 to keep it liquid at 200 deg C via radioactive decay self-heating and the oxidiser is liquid fluorine. Whee! Still not as bad as some of the tripropellant combos folks have experimented with in the past...

897:

Don’t like Le Guin? To each their own.

If however, you need a reason to bleach your brain, here are two media pitches to contemplate. In my very humblest opinion, Disney urgently needs one of two Disney princesses:

Agatha Heterodyne (so that Foglios have something to retire on)

Or

Ursula Vernon’s Digger, who can be both the plucky ethnic princess and the fuzzy sidekick all in one.

Which one could the HausMaus desecrate more profitably?

898:

"If (well, when) Putin intervenes again in the US it might be to arrange some non-obvious poison in Don's Big Macs."

Easter is end of this month, still time for a gift 16 ounce foil wrapped Novichokolate bunny

899:

Definitely Digger. That's one absolutely amazing story, and the storyboards are done already.

I was lamenting with a friend that nobody had turned Dragonflight into a movie, and Lessa would be the perfect Disney princess... plucky, smart, (though probably much too sexy and conflicted,) but she does have an awesome sidekick! (I guess if we can kill Simba's father onscreen we can kill Lord Fax, right?) And the Mouse gets two princesses for the price of one!

900:

There's a solid argument that Bush would have LOST by a couple hundred votes if the state-wide recount ordered by the Florida Supreme Court had been carried out.

It's a good thing that there was no hint of political interference in the decision to cancel the recount… /s

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooks_Brothers_riot

I don't know if it hit the news down south, but up here we heard that Nigeria had offered to send election observers to the US to help ensure a fair election. (Which was a bit cheeky, but understandable given some of the comments about Nigeria from American politicians.)

901:

why HIS last name and HER initials?

Because I'm running on memory and that's how they are referred to by the media. And given I misremembered his name, I'm not about to attempt hers.

I was thinking about using just initials for both, but "BS" seemed a bit pejorative… :-/

902:

That's odd. Wouldn't THEY have to become Canadian citizens before they were allowed to vote? Canada welcomes refugees from all over the world, why NOT from the U.S.?

They would, but that wouldn't be that hard for most of them. They could vote in municipal and school board elections even before that.

But given that the original comment was talking about 15-25% of your population, so roughly 1.5 to 2.5 times our entire population, integration would be a real problem. According to what rocketpjs said about people adapting their viewpoints to their surroundings, effectively Canada's political spectrum would be mostly replaced by an American one. So a lot more religious, very different attitudes towards lots of things. (And that would happen even without the American refugees voting.)

If you folks went full Gilead then it might happen, but currently there are people in lots worse circumstances who should be higher up the refugee priority list.

I'd also wonder about the endgame. Ask the Hawaiians and Mexicans how well allowing lots of American immigrants worked out for them…

903:

Re: Dragonflight

I seem to remember that it died in pre-production in the 80s or 90s. Anyone else remember that?

If it was done today, I think the whole dragon-mediated, non-consensual sex and relationships angle would have to be redone. That’s actually a good thing, since mismatches between draconic and human relationships would be an endless source of drama.

One reason for HausMaus to pick up the Pern saga is that, if the dragonriders are all men except for the golds, then, as some people did pick up at the time, all the brown, blue, and green riders are gay or bisexual men. After all, all the female greens did mate, even though they didn’t lay fertile eggs. And they mostly had male riders. Anne McCaffrey was a bit of a gay icon for that.

Given the ongoing tiff between Disney and Florida, I can almost see Disney deliberately flaunting a gay men’s planetary defense force riding rainbow flights of fire breathing dragons. Obviously the story would have to focus on the heteronormative romance between Lessa and F’lar, but outing the weyrs as gay havens in the background would be a way of owning the cons.

904:

up here we heard that Nigeria had offered to send election observers to the US

i heard it was the norks, but i can't find any reference to it online

905:

Exactly my attitude regarding those who do like Le Guin.

I've read the Foglio's work (obviously) but not Ursula Vernon.

906:

Digger is a free webcomic that many of us here enjoyed. The story is complete, and it won an award or two.

https://diggercomic.com/

907:

"One interesting thing is that Paypal and other "not banking" services are exempt from this law (or perhaps just above it as they are with so many other laws). Or at least I've never knowingly done a KYC check for my Paypal account"

You lucky bastard. In the UK the stuff Charlie was talking about in #881 is a creeping disease that has gone from "rarely significant" to "everything is fucked" over the last 15 years or so, in a gradual process as more and more companies catch the virus, and Paypal were one of the most enthusiastic early adopters of this policy of being a massive wanker.

I'd encountered Paypal without pleasure but also without problems as a necessary step in paying for stuff off ebay, but in around 2011+/-2 someone actually tried to send me some money, using that feature where you can send money to someone using Paypal knowing only their email address. I could not get at this money, though, because Paypal decided to be mega-fussy-arsed bastards about something which annoyed me too much for me to have remembered it as anything more than "some fucking stupid ID shit". (He had to get it back and get it to me by other means.) This episode was not only a fuckup in itself, but also fucked up any other interaction I subsequently tried to have with Paypal, and I was no longer able to use them at all.

I'm fairly sure it was also this episode that induced me to investigate alternative kinds of things that aren't bank accounts but look a bit like them. We had several different variants of pay-as-you-go card things, and also some one-off voucher things where you can buy a number that works like an ordinary card number until you've used it, and then dies. I tried lots of these in sequence as one by one the companies behind them became infected with the massive wanker virus, with it becoming more and more difficult on every iteration to find one that both still advertised "no ID" and that wasn't lying, until these days I can't use a single one of them anywhere.

The kind of thing David L was talking about is even worse because it can lead to the same general kind of results but without even needing any tangible reason - it doesn't depend on known and stated conditions which you meet or don't meet in a reasonably binary manner, it's just based on some git thinking something looks funny. Or, more likely these days, and the more so since there are many more things to look at than can be handled by a reasonable number of gits, some computer thinking something looks funny. Which given the original thread is about what it is makes it somewhat surprising that these policies are being mentioned without condemnation.

908:

"But is it perfect ?

Absolutely not!"

Even so, lists like yours and Troutwaxer's are handy means for deriving UK crappiness ratings based on whether it is closer to Scandinavia/the EU or to the US on the various points.

909:

only thing nastier being a German comedian snarking on the need to establish safe zones for Jews in Florida, lest there be ethnic cleansing given the crazies

910:

your problem was you were not a whale but a guppy... small volumes[1] of money and therefore unlikely to produce much in revenues for various glue-fingered banks

====

[1] wherein "small" being eqv to USD 10^6

911:

someone actually tried to send me some money, using that feature where you can send money to someone using Paypal knowing only their email address

In Australia we have a bank thing called "PayId" that works off email or phone numbers. Which means that idiots don't distinguish, causing people who haven't set up both with both id's to spend time sorting out problems. Selling stuff online I have about a 30% failure rate with PayId so I've stopped trying, I give people my bank account number and if they can't cope with that too bad. But the Paypal/PayId thing annoys me just because I get the SMS/email messages from Paypal and have to tell the idiot that I haven't received the money, they need to send it to my PayId not Paypal and no I can't help them get it back from Paypal because I don't use Paypal.

PayPal still have ~$US500 of mine that is locked pending some dispute resolution process that involves me flying to the US to argue with them. They're not a bank, they don't have to follow the banking laws of some pissant country on the other side of the world.

Australia's NYC stuff seems to be fairly straightforward, at least to me, because I have all the relevant documents (right down to certified copies of my grandparent's birth certificates, just because), so worst case I can turn up in person with the folder of things and negotiate with whoever it is. 99% of the time it's the "100 point" thing and I have the necessary in my wallet (or on my phone! Now that we have e-licenses etc).

But my ex, she of the habitually mangled names, struggled. Hellstra changed our account with them to "The Le" instead of "Thi Le" and refused to change it back correct it until the original account holder gave permission. She managed eventually but she's very good with bureaucracy. My suggestion was that we do what we did in Melbourne when some dodgy electricity retailer kept signing our address up to them... say "that's fine, good luck getting whoever signed the paperwork to pay the resulting bills. I didn't sign so I won't be paying".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_point_check

912:

I Noticed Something Strange On A Map of the Battle of Bunker Hill! [YouTube] Classic "Bahstan" accent 😏

That's a lovely Boston accent! Well found.

913:

Digger is a free webcomic that many of us here enjoyed. The story is complete, and it won an award or two.

https://diggercomic.com/

For anyone who didn't follow the link yet, the very last postscript installment shows the title character holding a rocket shaped award trophy and remarking, "I don't see what the big deal is..."

914:

Agatha Heterodyne (so that Foglios have something to retire on)

I totally want to see Pixar do Agatha Heterodyne, but not Classic Disney (given what they usually do to third-party IP, e.g. Peter Pan, Mary Poppins).

Ursula Vernon’s Digger

Alas, I haven't gotten round to Digger yet (too busy with the Saint of Steel books).

915:

effectively Canada's political spectrum would be mostly replaced by an American one. So a lot more religious, very different attitudes towards lots of things

Probably not, depending on the cause of the refugee migration: if it's to escape climate crisis that's one thing, but we're speculating about a much closer "USA goes full Gilead under a Dominionist Dictatorship" here, in which case the refugees will be the ones who are not comfortable with a right-wing religious authoritarian patriarchy.

In fact, if you could point the progressive refugees at Alberta and Saskatchewan and the outer suburbs of Toronto and Ottawa, that'd have a drastic political effect on Canada ... by swinging it hard to the left. (Take that, Rob Ford!)

916:

Spotted on the internets, Elon Musk's next rocket venture after Starship with a boost (so to speak) from Tesla's battery technology -- the TOXMAX rocket motor.

You did not realize it is a joke?

It was posted on X/Twitter by someone with the handle "ToughSF" -- that should give you a clue.

https://twitter.com/ToughSf/status/1769958999279927787

Rocket engineers have long had to choose between performance and toxicity.

The TOXMAX rocket concept resolves the problem decisively.

Lithium kept molten by radioactive Cesium-137, reacting with fluorine, provides superlative performance with maximum environmental impact.

917:

Some additions to the "policies of an ordinary EU-country"-list:

  • mandatory ID-cards for everybody (may be a matter of contention not only for USians, but also for Brits)

  • mandatory registration at your place of living (no going "off-grid")

  • lower drinking age

  • higher driving age

  • also: mandatory minimal number of driving lessons taken from a certified driving instructor before being allowed to register for the examination

  • four to six weeks of annual vacation (paid vacation, of course; and sick-days do not come out of that time)

  • no such thing as "jaywalking" (I for one can still not really believe that "jaywalking" actually exists as a legal thing in the US; for my European sensibilities it still sounds like a hoax that maybe used to be funny once, but then got badly out of hand)

  • no such thing as "trespassing" (in the sense of risking to get shot at if you're on someone's property; in many European countries there is some variation of a right of passing over public and private property as long as you don't destroy or remove anything)

  • no all-encompassing, ill-defined "right to free speech"

Still far from a complete list, and still not sufficient for creating a paradise.

918:

no all-encompassing, ill-defined "right to free speech"

There is usually a qualified right to free speech (that's part of the European Convention on Human Rights, which is mandatory). The big difference as I understand it is that in the USA it's acceptable to incite violence against a group or for political ends -- it stops being legal if you call for violence against a specific individual. Whereas almost everywhere in the EU, yelling "death to Jews" or "hang the liberals" will risk getting you arrested and imprisoned. (And rightly so, in my opinion: Trump's rallies and his tendency to incite stochastic terrorism would be totally illegal here.)

919:

if you could point the progressive refugees at Alberta and Saskatchewan and the outer suburbs of Toronto and Ottawa, that'd have a drastic political effect on Canada ... by swinging it hard to the left

I live in one of Toronto's outer suburbs, and we're not hard to the right of the lefty bits of America.

Maybe a lot of my opinion is personal bias, but the Americans I've met who oppose the Republicans, wouldn't welcome a Dominionist setup, identify as progressive, etc and still would fit comfortably into our Conservative Party outnumber those who would support the Liberals, and I can think of only 2-3 who would support the NDP. Most are from coastal cities.

Alberta, maybe. The Alberta NDP is politically quite close to the pre-Harris Ontario Conservatives. "Left-wing" in Alberta is much closer to "left-wing" in America than to the rest of the country.

But it's a moot point. If there's a Gileadan dictatorship south of the border we have no way of stopping them doing whatever they want. We have no way of stopping them militarily (not enough troops, we use equipment purchased from America, etc), our economies are basically integrated, etc. So if the dictatorship says "send these people back or we'll take them" then they're going back one way or another.

920:
  • no all-encompassing, ill-defined "right to free speech"

There is usually a qualified right to free speech

I agree. My qualifiers were meant to convey what you explained in more detail.

921:

906 - OK, I've started Digger, and will keep going for a while since I've never read anything like it. Which probably explains why Mousewitz should never be allowed anywhere near it!

911 - A neat precis if why I do not and have never used PayPal.

914 - Well, I've only just started Digger and suggest you bookmark it if you haven't already.

922:

also: mandatory minimal number of driving lessons taken from a certified driving instructor before being allowed to register for the examination

I can't speak to all states but in many, if not most or all, this is here now. Even if not in specific law, new drivers can't get liability insurance without such. Or the premiums cost a lot more.

I have a relation by marriage who does driver training in Oregon. And in the North Carolina it is mandatory. And you're a "learner" for 6 months at a minimum.

923:

Agatha Heterodyne. Sexy, but nothing that's a problem. (I mean, it's not like the comic he put out a long time ago, XXXophile). And they're already handwaving magic, so not a problem.

924:

I do/don't have a paypal account. I set up one in the later 'oughts, then didn't use it for something like five years. In the meantime, I relocated, no access to old land line, no access to old email (forwarding when you change? That's so 20th century). They will not let me update my card info, and get them to call the credit card company? Be real.

So, I can't access it, and they won't fix it.

925:

And, completely and totally off-thread. Charlie, I was thinking about the 1600s. My first published stories were in the sigh late Eric Flint's 1632 universe, in the (now shuttered) Grantville Gazette, and one thing hit me: in the Empire Games series, the leader in world 3 is "the Big Man". You weren't, perhaps, thinking of how it could have gone right if Cromwell hadn't gone to what we'd call dictatorship, as an inspiration for that?

926:

Charlie Stross @ 881:

"Know Your Customer sounds like a good policy but has it got any teeth: have any banks ever been audited under this policy and called up on this?"

Not sure about the US system, but similar regulations exist in the UK (you can't open a bank account unless you're already known to the bank or present proof of identity and legal residence or are transferring your account(s) from another bank that knows you). IIRC it's part of a global regime of anti money laundering regulations. EU included, naturally.

In the U.S. "Know Your Customer" isn't actually the law, it's a set of guidelines from the IRS & FDIC for banks, HOW they can avoid running afoul of the Bank Secrecy Act (the anti-money laundering law). IF banks fail to report "suspicious" cash transactions they can be held liable along with the customer.

So, how do banks avoid that liability?

There are legit businesses who mostly deal in cash - the two that readily come to mind are "flea market" dealers and small farms with roadside fruit/vegetable stands.

As noted in the article about structuring cash transactions ...

"... For those that have a cash business, it is important to build a relationship with the bank so the bank understands that the daily deposits (under $10,000) is not structuring, but rather normal operations. It is more than a little frightening to think that a teller who does not know you can create serious problems when you are really just conducting a legitimate business."

Know Your Customer allows banks to be sure the customers are NOT engaged in unlawful "structuring"; that the customer is just doing business that requires cash transactions ...

Also, the reporting requirement only applies to CASH transactions, not to electronic transfers.

927:

Nojay @ 896:

Spotted on the internets, Elon Musk's next rocket venture after Starship with a boost (so to speak) from Tesla's battery technology -- the TOXMAX rocket motor. Eye-popping specific impulse of over 470 plus maximum environmental damage from the exhaust since the fuel is a mixture of 90% metallic lithium with the addition of 10% cesium-137 to keep it liquid at 200 deg C via radioactive decay self-heating and the oxidiser is liquid fluorine. Whee! Still not as bad as some of the tripropellant combos folks have experimented with in the past...

Is "Red Mercury" one of the components?

928:

Robert Prior @ 900:

I don't know if it hit the news down south, but up here we heard that Nigeria had offered to send election observers to the US to help ensure a fair election. (Which was a bit cheeky, but understandable given some of the comments about Nigeria from American politicians.)

Yeah, I remember that one ... along with several "humorous" articles comparing the Florida election to that of a "Banana Republic". The governor of the state being the "winning candidate"'s brother; the Secretary of State certifying the election being his state campaign chairperson ...

929:

Robert Prior @ 901:

"why HIS last name and HER initials?"

Because I'm running on memory and that's how they are referred to by the media. And given I misremembered his name, I'm not about to attempt hers.

I was thinking about using just initials for both, but "BS" seemed a bit pejorative… :-/

Yeah, well ... don't take EVERYTHING I write TOO seriously ... I'd just WOKE up. 🙃

930:

...then there's 'red mercury' craziness and something summarized as "FO-OF" which is less safe than licking botulism spores... if only I could recall the author so I could find the story

931:

Robert Prior @ 902:

"That's odd. Wouldn't THEY have to become Canadian citizens before they were allowed to vote? Canada welcomes refugees from all over the world, why NOT from the U.S.?"

They would, but that wouldn't be that hard for most of them. They could vote in municipal and school board elections even before that.

Yeah, I can see how THAT might be problematic. If you look at what's going on down south, it seems like city councils & county school boards are where the Karens, MAGAts & evangel-FASCISTS are doing the worst damage ...

ALTHOUGH ... I don't see that many MAGAts & evangel-FASCISTS fleeing another Trump Presidency. Might be the ones who would flee to Canada are people you'd want to take in.

Probably be a few Karens amongst them though.

933:

MSB @ 917:

Some additions to the "policies of an ordinary EU-country"-list:

  • mandatory ID-cards for everybody (may be a matter of contention not only for USians, but also for Brits)
  • [...]

Still far from a complete list, and still not sufficient for creating a paradise.

That first one might not be quite the issue it once was for U.S. citizens now that (AFAIK) pretty much every state requires some kind of state issued photo-ID for voting.

934:

Minor technicality - who can vote in municipal or school board elections varies by province. Here in BC we have occasionally had to fend off idiotic notions like allowing corporations with operations in a municipality to have a vote in local elections. One of those things that sounds slightly logical but would be utterly insane in practice (picture gas stations voting on public transit options).

I had a friend whose college job was working as a border control agent, at the airport and also at the border. He had fairly regular stories about USian tourists being shocked that they were not allowed to bring their various guns with them into Canada - often insisting on their 2nd Amendment rights. Many seemed to have trouble grasping the notion that US law does not follow them into other jurisdictions. Some of the guns in question being severely proscribed in Canada, they often shut up when the penalties for possession of such guns on Canadian soil were explained to them.

Many of those individuals might reasonably want to escape a militarized religio-fascist theocracy, but their views would ultimately affect our own functioning.

That said, Canada is sadly ripe for invasion by such a militarized fascist state. They do tend to invade their neighbours, and the relative military power is such that it would be over in about the time it takes to drive a tank to Ottawa from the border. Followed by a long period of counterinsurgency and awfulness until the inevitable collapse of the US empire.

On other topics: I've had a paypal account for years, originally to sell things on Ebay but more recently as a way to pay for things like youth sports or ferry reservations without using a credit card. Never had an issue. Presumably most of the millions of other users are similar. To be honest I've never had a problem with any of the online payment processor systems, including Stripe or others for my business. YMMV I guess.

935:

David L @ 922:

"also: mandatory minimal number of driving lessons taken from a certified driving instructor before being allowed to register for the examination"

I can't speak to all states but in many, if not most or all, this is here now. Even if not in specific law, new drivers can't get liability insurance without such. Or the premiums cost a lot more.

I have a relation by marriage who does driver training in Oregon. And in the North Carolina it is mandatory. And you're a "learner" for 6 months at a minimum.

Another thing ... the U.S. is a lot more spread out than Europe and much more dependent on automobiles for transportation. Everywhere I know anything about Europe (and/or the U.K.) things are close enough nearby you can walk there.

But if not, you still don't NEED a car because you've got mass transit out the wazoo.

If you need food, how do you get to the grocery store (super-market, etc)? How do you get to your primary care doctor's office? Shopping mall?

I know there's one in Edinburgh, 'cause I've been inside it ... walked to it & rode the bus back to the B&B I was staying at.

When I was coming up [58 years ago] THE LAW was you had to have Driver's ED (two weeks classroom before the two weeks practical - taught by the public school system in summer school**) before you could get your license at 16.

IF you had completed Driver's ED, you could get a Lerner's Permit at age 15½ that allowed you to drive with parental supervision [during daylight hours] so you could practice your skills before you went to take the written license test. If you passed the written test, you could take the road test (which at the time still included parallel parking).

IF you did NOT complete Driver's ED, you couldn't take the tests until you were 18.

And I think today if you do get your license at 16 there are restrictions on night time driving before you turn 18.

I've known a number of people who learned to drive under the European rules and to tell the truth I don't think the system of required driving lessons makes people any better as drivers than the U.S. system does.

** I believe some school systems teach Driver's ED year round now because there's greater demand than can be met with just the summer sessions.

936:

not just 'big stick' of nukes and 'small stick' of armored divisions

yeah, economics... crazy as it might sound, if the US informally boycotted (or officially banned) Canadian-sourced paper products it would hurt US consumers due to higher pricing of scarcer goods... but it would wreck an entire industry centered upon cheap-labor-cheap-trees... most Americans are clueless where their toilet paper comes from... only during pandemic did it become topic of interest

the bitter joke Mexicans repeat oft, applies to Canada

"too far from God, too close to America"

937:

Random rocket statistics attractor: Over on Reddit someone has pointed out that on March 11th SpaceX hit a record of 100 Falcon 9 launches in the previous 365 days. Their methodology may have missed Feb 29th, but still an impressive rate.

938:

.. and then there's chlorine trifluoride:

"... It is also hypergolic with such things as cloth, wood, and test engineers, not to mention asbestos, sand, and water - with which it reacts explosively."

939:

one of the things lots of parents have mentioned they'd wished to have had when their teenaged children drove the family car...

what we now have without fuss: real time monitoring of location; in general annoying 'n cloying helicopter parenting but when it pertains to driving, literally life 'n death...

especially beloved? an app that tracks not only location but speed... if your kids exceed the speed limit on highway (55 MPH is US typical) or local streets (ranges widely from 20 MPH to 40 MPH) the app rats them out

knowing this, more kids will grimly comply with speed limits all the while whining...

guy I knew in 1990s forced his kids to hang a sign in yellow letters on red background that was hooked into place over the trunk: TEEN DRIVER STAY BACK

they hated it but they made it to college without a single collision and zero speeding tickets... "alive to be whining" he described it

what's interesting is that this is not the law of the land anywhere... it ought to be

940:

»then there's 'red mercury' craziness«

Originally that was a precisely designed canary, deliberately planted in the uranium mine to be heard from only if clandestine nuclear programmes discovered it.

Various "leaks" had mentions that this (classified, obviously!) substance was "crucial" for plutonium production.

Bogus index-cards were also placed in some university libraries, pointing at some obscure library having "the only copy somebody forgot to classify" but where the incoming librarian knew who to call.

These days it's just another techno-babble term for deluded people rambling about flouridation and 5G and LOFAR

941:

The trouble is the crap catches guppies but not whales. So it's giving the greatest grief to the greatest number for the least significant result.

942:

hmmm...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Girl_Genius

Girl Genius has the tagline of "Adventure, Romance, Mad Science!"

you have my full attention now, given the promise of 'Mad Science'

943:

...because poor(er) people cannot afford best of lawyers and therefore end up getting investigated much, much more oft

LEO (law enforcement organizations) need to provide hefty statistics of arrests so there's a grim, deep-in-bone process built up over decades of not busting large scale dealers in illegal things such as drugs, stolen goods, prostitution, etc, and focusing upon 'small fry'... street corner hookers get arrested frequent but not those high end call girl services catering to the rich-n-horny as just one instance... only rarely are the customers hunted as aggressively as the sex workers...

BTW: banks define "poor" as anyone with an investment portfolio comprising fungible items totaling less than USD 10^6 and/or total assets less than USD 10^7 (as Trump is finding out, real estate is non-liquid)

944:

Re: 'Also, the reporting requirement only applies to CASH transactions, not to electronic transfers.'

Combine that with services like PayPal that may not be held to the same standards/laws, plenty of holes in the authorities' ability to watch out for/catch money launderers. Years ago there were stories about how casinos were among the busiest money movers (potential launderers), wonder how much of their biz is conducted via PayPal.

For the history/archaeology buffs ...

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2423158-amazingly-preserved-bronze-age-village-reveals-life-in-ancient-england/

945:

Everywhere I know anything about Europe (and/or the U.K.) things are close enough nearby you can walk there.

That may be confirmation bias: there are large chunks of the UK you can't easily live in these days without a car -- Thatcher's deregulation of public transport in the 80s had creeping long-term toxic effects, and suburban sprawl has taken hold gradually.

Same in the rest of Europe. Visit Poland and you'll find amazing walkable cities with insanely frequent streetcars on all the main roads ... but it's the areas that were built before 1990: the outlying suburbs are car-strewn wastelands, just like the USA.

Yes, the continental EU has about half the land area of the USA and about 30% more people. But huge chunks of the USA are effectively empty -- think of Alaska, or Nebraska, or North Dakota. The inhabited bits are much of a muchness with much of Europe, Europe just allowed its auto manufacturers to cannibalize its public transport infrastructure more recently, and has vastly better railways. (Except for Deutsche Bahn under current management.)

946:

after Atlantic City became "Las Vegas East", an open secret was how oft chips from the casinos were exploited as bribes all along the Eastern Seaboard... somebody get USD 10,000 in fifties and gets noticed for being a bit too flashy with cash... 10,000 in chips and that individual goes to that casino in Atlantic City and cashes 'em in... plausible he got lucky

casinos rather liked it and there really was no possible method of preventing their chips from being used thusly

947:

»you have my full attention now«

I bet we dont :-)

The canonical fate for people discovering Girl Genius is to disappear from orbit for days if not weeks...

As they ought, given it's brilliance.

948:

From my pov, this is serious - releasing personal info, i.e., addresses of Dominion Voting employees*, etc. given the documented behavior of the people she's representing.

Wonder whether the ABA is looking into this yet.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/18/politics/trump-allies-election-defamation-case-leak-dominion-emails/index.html

*Because DV is a Canadian based firm I wonder whether there will be any word from Canadian authorities about privacy violation -- not to mention potential personal harms.

949:

He had fairly regular stories about USian tourists being shocked that they were not allowed to bring their various guns with them into Canada - often insisting on their 2nd Amendment rights.

The world is full of idiots. When I was visiting Toronto repeatedly in for a few years in the early 80s, the locals would talk about people who apparently got their civics lessons from US TV shows. And when getting pulled over for DUI or other similar things would get upset that their rights were not being read to them. Just like they would be in New York.

950:

That may be confirmation bias:

Cuts both ways. I grew up in what was NOT considered farm country. But to folks in New York City and Chicago was. Public transportation would NOT have worked. Just not enough people. 60K in the county (think 40 miles x 40 miles) with most (30K) in a small city. Largest county and city within a 4 hour drive.

Public transportation worked in our small city but was hopeless for the surrounding area up to 3 or 4 hours out.

Anyway, about 1/2 of the state lived in such areas. And it was typical of much of the US outside of the big metro areas. Nebraska prairie it wasn't. But it wasn't all that empty. But also not all that crowded. As to my state, Kentucky, while not a rectangle it is 150 miles north south and about 300 miles east west. Give or take.

As to the German rail system, when I was using it in 2018 it was decent. Compared to nothing. Or renting a car. But I understand that it has gone downhill over the last 10 to 20 years and I don't have comparison points.

951:

I have unfortunately come to the realization to my absolute dread that I now currently live in Gilead, that being that state of Texas. The Texas anti-abortion law, banning gender affirming medical care for minors, and banning of books in school libraries (including Margret Atwood’s “The Handmaid's Tale”) pretty much confirms that. Add to that Texas Governor Abbot’s unconstitutional border and immigration policies.

Currently Texas’ dubious immigration enforcement law (SB 4) which makes unauthorized entry into Texas a state crime allowing local police to arrest undocumented immigrants and allows local judges to order a migrant charged under the state law to return to Mexico — regardless of where the immigrant is from.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled to allow SB 4 to go into effect on Tuesday but was blocked again after a late-night order Tuesday from the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals.

Never mind that Mexico has said it will not accept the returned immigrants from Texas. And never mind that local law enforcement and courts do not have the manpower or capacity to handle the added burden. Not to mention that the law would lead to racial profiling of Texans across the state.

Speaking of Canada I seem to recall undocumented immigrants fleeing to the Canadian border by the thousands from the U.S. because of the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigrants back in 2017.

952:

And never mind that local law enforcement and courts do not have the manpower or capacity to handle the added burden.

I've seen interviews of county sheriffs in Texas saying they have no idea how to even implement this law. Apparently no one bothered to write up the details of how this would work. And as a point of reference these sheriffs are not exactly far left liberals. [snark off]

953:

Example:

I live about 8 miles south west of a southern City. About 7 miles on the other side of it is my place of work.

If I go by car I will be there in about 25-30minutes.

If I take a bus to said City and then another to my place of work the journey would take about 90 mins if the buses connected. They don't. Realistically, you're looking at 120 minutes minimum to work.

On the way back its much the same. Throw in cancelations and the fact theres only 3 buses into town in the morning and 3 more home in the evening, you're looking at 4-5 hours of your day.

Go somewhere like The Fens or Devon and it will be worse. The bus services have been decimated.

I work from home as much as work will allow and use a car the rest of the time.

954:

Re: '... makes unauthorized entry into Texas a state crime'

So - how does someone from Canada get authorized to enter/drive through Texas?

Lots of Canadian retirees overwinter in the southern states with many of them driving there and back.

955:

I understand that it has gone downhill over the last 10 to 20 years

Last 5-10 years!

And it didn't die of natural causes, capital investment was strangled by successive conservative governments who planned to copy the British model of railway privatization by using long-term infrastructure funds to sweeten the pot for private sector investors.

Railways need 2-5% of the track network replacing every year. Deutsche Bahn is currently grappling with huge technical debt due to underinvestment, resulting in almost no services running on time. They should be among the best in Europe, but things haven gotten so bad that Switzerland won't allow DB trains to enter their country because they disrupt the punctuality of the entire Swiss network.

956:

Since we were talking about rockets (TOXMAX & FOOF).

Seen this recently:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ring-of-fire-rocket-engines-put-a-new-spin-on-spaceflight/

And this guy mentions melding the technology with air-breathing turbines:

https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/61660/has-the-isp-been-published-for-nasas-new-rotating-detonation-engine-demonstrator

Neat developments created by 3D printing.

957:

Re: '... rockets (TOXMAX & FOOF)'

And in plain English, this means ...?

Not being snarky, would just like to understand since SciAm (which usually does a good job of plain speech explanations) is paywalled.

Thanks!

958:

It's a joke. (How to maximize toxicity in a rocket engine exhaust.

TOXMAX uses molten lithium, kept warm by a mixture of dissolved 137-Cs (yummy radioactive isotopes in exhaust!) as fuel, and liquid fluorine as the oxidizer. (It's not a serious proposal, but charming in its own subtle and understated insanity.)

FOOF, difluorine dioxide, is merely insane. It's very real and available in industrial quantities if you happen to run a nuclear fuel rod reprocessing plant (it's apparently the bee's knees for turning uranium or plutonium oxides into UF6 or Pu6). Note that FOOF decomposes explosively if warmed much above -100 Kelvin, it reacts explosively with all organic molecules it's been tested with, explosively with water, explosively with liquid oxygen ... it's a stronger oxidizing agent than ClF3, which is just insane.

I wanna see someone try and build a rocket that uses CL-20 as fuel and FOOF as oxidizer. Preferably from the next solar system over.

(CL-20 is Hexanitrohexaazaisowurtzitane, an exotic high explosive that can apparently be made less shock sensitive -- and it is very shock sensitive and rather more powerful than RDX -- by dissolving it in TNT.)

959:

Yes, TOXMAX & FOOF are not real (I hope).

The RDE is though, and is unbelievable in its own right. :)

960:

To be honest I've never had a problem with any of the online payment processor systems, including Stripe or others for my business. YMMV I guess.

Little Havana Cafe in Toronto had trouble when they discovered that Square was passing money for online payments through an American bank which was seizing the money because the food truck sold Cuban coffee. Last I heard they were out $14k and counting…

https://www.thestar.com/business/toronto-food-truck-caught-up-in-trump-s-battle-with-cuba/article_cfe54ed6-0b6d-5202-b490-7a6710c4c181.html

961:

ugh... another addiction!?

{ sounds of sleeve being rolled up and needle crackling as it is sterilized in candle flame }

962:

That may be confirmation bias: there are large chunks of the UK you can't easily live in these days without a car

I discovered that on my first trip there as an adult, in the 80s. Didn't hire a car because my parents assured me that there were buses everywhere — and they were right for values of England that included the 50s. Getting around outside the cities was problematic. (I really wanted to see archaeological sites.)

The next time I went back I hired a car so I could visit places that only had one bus a day (or no bus).

963:

banning of books in school libraries (including Margret Atwood’s “The Handmaid's Tale”)

...and of course the irony of banning such books is lost in the loud noise of women refusing to rollback to the 1950s (knowing full well next year it will be another rollback to 1850s)

964:

re: the German railway system:

It is still (I believe) the densest railway system in the world, with practically everywhere in the country more or less easily reachable by train.

However, it has been badly (mis-)managed for almost 40 years now. And before that there was already a period of decline because of car-centric politics. (I've read somewhere that between 1945 and 1980 or so there were a grand total of 11km(!) of tracks newly built; compared to 1000s of kilometers of roads.)

And the reason for the mismanagement? Privatisation (although still 100% of the shares are held by the state). This put the railway away from being a service for citizens to being profit-oriented. Thus the total focus on all these shiny high speed lines between big population centers, and total neglect of everything else.

I blame it on the fact that railway managers tend to not be railway users. Thus they have no idea what their customers actually need. For the few times the managers are taking a train from Berlin main station to Frankfurt main station for some business meeting, they will feel happy for the short travel time of a high speed train. But they are totally oblivious to the fact that most people don't live inside Berlin main station and work in Frankfurt main station, but have to travel for two hours in shitty local trains in order to reach any major main station, and then another two hours in shitty local trains in order to reach their actual destination far away from a main station. Which adds four hours to each "high speed" journey. Thus I don't care whether the super high speed train between the shiny main stations travels half an hour faster. As a part of the whole journey that's negligible, because getting to and from the main stations takes so much time. DB managers (and infrastructure politicians) seem fundamentally incapable of understanding this. And of course the politicians are also firmly in the bags of the car industry.

The current quality troubles of DB are mainly a product of crumbling neglected infrastructure, with a side show of the usual symptoms of late stage capitalism ("200% income hikes for board members? Of course, sure!" – "10% pay raise for employees? Outrageous, no way!"). Crumbling infrastructure across the board (rails, bridges, signals, trains, etc.) means a lot of repairs everywhere all at once, which of cause wreaks havoc with timetables and service quality.

Still, I'm getting everywhere I want, if at times with delays. But with the rule of thumb to plan for a delay of one hour on long journeys I'm rarely late for any appointment. Car drivers still don't have an advantage, because they lose that same hour in traffic jams, and at least in a train I have more space to spend that hour in (and I can read, relax, or write the minutes of the meeting I'm returning from). Thus my personal transportation policy is the same as it ever was: cars are okay for medium distance (10 to ~100 kilometers), and for moving heavy and/or bulky things for medium and short distances. Journeys over 100 kilometers up to any distance within Europe: that's what trains are for (except for rare circumstances like moving house).

965:

Because DV is a Canadian based firm I wonder whether there will be any word from Canadian authorities about privacy violation -- not to mention potential personal harms

I wonder what we could do about it if we wanted to. All she'd need to do is avoid coming up here and she'd basically be safe.

Kinda like that DJ who won a judgement against a California woman for repeatedly slandering him. (She literally gave him the middle finger while saying that Canadian law didn't apply to her: "Now I have a judgment against me in Canada which luckily does not affect me because it's in a different country," she added. She concluded the (Instagram) post by flashing her middle finger.)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/dj-snails-defamation-lawsuit-edmonton-1.7141507

966:

{ vague hand waving }

it is obvious how to achieve these lofty goals if only these sheriffs prayed enough to the Our Fearless Orange Leader sent to us by the Lord Jesus to smite the heathen

such fiddly bits are merely a momentary challenge to those pure of heart and whose swords are sharpened by their faith

/snark off

the latest chatter amongst cable news talking heads is the likely reason Trump cannot raise the necessary ~ $500M is not only due to his established pattern of not paying off debts on time but also he must have been quietly leveraging every nickel of equity in his real estate portfolio back when interest rates were much lower... and being the fool he is... took it out on variable rate loans... the Fed just confirmed they will not be reducing prime rate any time soon... so... to keep up with payments Trump has had to keep rolling over as well as get reassessed valuations to identify nooks 'n crannies of fresh equity due to imaginary improvements... which is what got his arse trapped in the vise by New York court case demonstrating mass fraud...

nothing left to leverage further

tee hee

967:

Here in BC we have occasionally had to fend off idiotic notions like allowing corporations with operations in a municipality to have a vote in local elections.

Aotearoa at least used to allow anyone who owned property in a local government area to vote in elections for that area. Which was great for landlords (residential or commercial) but not so great for people subject to them.

Sadly expanding the franchise seems unlikely, the new right/far right/lunatic coalition is vigorously opposed to allowing 16 year olds to vote, but also I think in favour of allowing landlords to vote multiple times. Sadly this doesn't allow 16 year olds who own property to vote, because they already can't own property. Which means the trust option is also out. Governments really, really don't want under-18s to have any influence.

968:

Re: '... gave him the middle finger while saying that Canadian law didn't apply to her:'

Good grief! She sounds like what that Jan6 lawyer looks: vicious and contemptuous.

I did a quick search - since she's been officially arrested/has a record, the Canadian border guards would probably not allow her to cross into Canada.

969:

But they are totally oblivious to the fact that most people don't live inside Berlin main station and work in Frankfurt main station, but have to travel for two hours in shitty local trains in order to reach any major main station, and then another two hours in shitty local trains in order to reach their actual destination far away from a main station.

This is an ongoing problem with all passenger rail expansion attempts in the US. The politicians want to talk about high speed rail. But we don't have the locals to feed it. So all such projects start getting routed so they can stop every 15 to 30 minutes at various towns along the routes. Which makes the high speed part a bit of a joke with all the starting and stopping.

And this then drives up the already crazy cost guesstimates to crazy high estimates. And then it goes nowhere or not very far.

I think reading what I have on this blog, it is similar in the UK with HS2. (?)

970:

my newest cliche for politics... especially all these intentionally destructive fools who are posturing for sake of book deals, photo ops, clicks, et al

"yes, [NAME] is a clown, but a clown with a flamethrower is holding a flamethrower and doesn't care about damage done"

971:

The great thing about flamethrowers is that they're so risky for whoever is holding them. The usual suspects wouldn't dare even try because they don't like risks to themselves. Think of all the US lawmakers who pose with guns, or post videos of them shotting guns. How often is what they're pointing the gun at any danger at all to them?

(hmm... some shoot cars or alcohol so maybe there is danger after all?)

972:

oooooh... happy happy joy joy

I could tell you but why ruin the coldly fresh thrill chill... surprise!

https://youtu.be/GTNMt84KT0k

973:

yup!

you get it!

gotta replace "clown" with "drunken clown"

974:

Speaking of which….

Howard, maybe you can help me.

When The Donald passes to his great reward, I’m of a mind to start a petition to get NYC to put a memorial to him in Freshkills Park. It seems appropriate to remember the two greatest piles of garbage that New York has ever produced together, don’t you think?

What I want to know is, how to do this anonymously. Any help?

975:

[Everything being at a walkable distance in Europe and how that's really not true.]

Same in the rest of Europe.

Yeah, same in Finland. I live in the second-largest city in Finland, in a suburb (which is again different from the various suburbs elsewhere). I have good public transport and we don't have a car. I can basically walk or take the various public transports to get where I want, and bike when it's warm enough (and it is possible to bike throughout the year, I just don't like it).

Still, go a bit further away and it is much harder to live without a car. And this is also a (relatively) big city, anything smaller and the bus going once every hour during peak times might be considered good public transport. If there is a bus at all.

976:

Always worth remembering that LA once had a really good train system. It was scrapped for a bunch of reasons, including inadequate maintenance, route design problems, and failure t grow fast enough to serve the suburbs.

https://www.pbssocal.org/shows/lost-la/episodes/who-killed-the-red-car

977:

nah... I'll think of him every time I step in canine feces... as in... better to have dog shit on my shoes than that pile of shit in the White House

every morning since 06-JAN-2021 my hope upon waking each morning was to hear on the news Trump choked on a greaseburger as his adult children watched and did nothing to help him... no joy...

now there is the vague sense of Trump's flailing as he drowns which is abstract mode of bemusement for me since his recent appearances he's trying to conceal whatever his feelings

one of my few moments of hoping there is a deity is in the hope T(he)Rump is greeted and graded and sent where his deliberate cruelty warrants

worst aspect? Trump is not the disease but an overt symptom, the outcome of a disease that keeps flaring up every 3 or 4 decades

"bigotry never dies"

978:

The politicians want to talk about high speed rail. But we don't have the locals to feed it.

I just want to point out that air traffic, especially for short trips, has much of the same problem. The planes are fast, yes, but getting to the airport and to the tarmac is quite an effort, and then it's the same on the other end.

For rail, in Finland there're now plans to reduce the train travel time from Helsinki to Turku to one hour. This would mean new track and equipment and of course would cost a lot. The travel time is now a bit less than two hours, according to the schedules. There are many people who don't understand why it's worth that much to reduce the already short travel time.

979:

958 - "build a rocket that uses CL-20 as fuel and FOOF as oxidizer."
Maybe someone already did do it? In an orbit somewhere between Jupiter and Saturn. ;-)

967 - In which general context, here in Scotland 16YOs are allowed to vote in all elections except Westminster ones. I wonder what the Con and Liebour Parties are scared of?

969 - As it is presently de-designed, HS2 is effectively reduced to being a commuter line between Larndarn and Barmyhum, where it was originally supposed to serve Manchester and Leeds. Enough said Greg?

980:

Howard NYC @ 977
Yet ... polling appears to be showing DJT ahead ... Why? How?
Or are we waiting for Taylor Swift to denounce him about 10 days before the election?

Worse than "just" bigotry ... Fascism

Paws
Actually, it's worse than that ... much worse.
Currently it's a money-pit, serving no useful purpose, like the Rwanda omnishambles.
The tories are pissing money into empty holes, simply to make sure there's none left, come October/November.
I could rant for HOURS on this, so let's not?

981:

Under eighteens have yet to be entirely assimilated, and might vote sensibly. From time to time.

982:

I loved how they worked that bit of real history into Roger Rabbit.

983:

I think reading what I have on this blog, it is similar in the UK with HS2. (?)

Not exactly.

The UK has a much better rail network than the USA, but it's close to peak capacity and is likely to be as logjammed as DB by 2030 if something isn't done. (Like the USA we have freight running on the same tracks as passenger rail, but human cargo takes priority. Also, our freight trains are a lot smaller -- everywhere is within 70km of the coast, so a lot more stuff goes by sea or by road.)

A big problem is high speed running. Yes, the UK's existing network can in principle be upgraded to take express trains running at about 160mph (old money applies, the network was built out in 1830-1860). But fast trains take much longer distances to come to a stop than commuter trains running at under 100mph. Upshot is, each intercity express occupies about 2-3 commuter train slots.

HS1 is the Channel Tunnel link to the French TGV network and the continent. Its northern terminus is London. HS2 was intended to be a Shinkansen-style second network to link London to parts north. It was a massively ambitious plan that would carry express trains only, four tracks wide (to allow overtaking and line maintenance during continuous operation) at speeds up to 220mph, and original plans called for it to extend via Birmingham to Manchester, a branch to Leeds, and then up to Newcastle, Edinburgh, and Glasgow.

HS2 was explicitly going to take all the high speed passenger trains off the existing network, thereby freeing up a shitload of slots for stopping/commuter trains and freight.

Note that much of this real estate is as densely populated and pricey as the suburbs of Tokyo. Buying the land, alone, was going to cost tens of billions.

Anyway, costs spiraled in part due to Tory mismanagement and land speculation. The plans were cut back and cut back until Sunak finally dropped Manchester, leaving basically a high speed commuter line to Birmingham (yippee, just what the entire country needs). Then they axed the central London interchange, leaving a London terminus in the middle of suburbia with inadequate tube and suburban rail connections. So basically a line from nowhere that wouldn't improve commuter journey times from Birmingham, at vast expense.

Someone needs to bite the bullet and do it right -- admit that HS2 will cost in the region of £100-200Bn and take 30+ years to complete, but that without it the UK rail network will gridlock into uselessness, and with it the UK will have a working network that's ready for the 21st century and fast enough to kill domestic air travel between the major cities on the network.

(Currently, an EDI-LON train takes 4h15m to 5h, depending on route. An EDI-LON flight is 80 minutes and can be as little as 60 minutes if ATC is favourable. With HS2, an EDI-LON train should be down to 2h30m, which is far better than flying when you factor in baggage, security, and boarding/unloading time on top.)

984:

What I want to know is, how to do this anonymously. Any help?

Why be anonymous?

The locals will totally understand what you're doing, and open their wallets and hearts for you. While the MAGAts in flyover country will see "Donald Trump memorial! Yay!" and zone out.

985:

The MAGATs will like the name 'Freshkills.' (none of them have the mental capacity to find it on a map, but some grifter might point it out to them.)

986:

...only if it's renamed "POTUS Pussy Grabber Plaza"

and the MAGA faithful will insist upon a daily 21 gun salute for their Fearless Leader...

987:

Re: '... daily 21 gun salute for their Fearless Leader'

What -- and scare off the seagulls that would provide that special sauce/icing on his memorial!?! That special sauce would be the only economic and environmental good he has ever done.

Seagull poop has lots of phosphate, nitrogen, and potassium, i.e., good fertilizer. Providing seagulls a well-defined small area to release their poop would therefore also reduce the cost of harvesting (scraping off) this special sauce.

988:

what's interesting is that this is not the law of the land anywhere... it ought to be

It depends on how much "anywhere" you're looking at. It's the law in Japan, where there are no fewer than four stickers!

The "beware of teen driver" symbol is called the Shoshinsha mark and is available in Unicode as U+1F530 (🔰); it's been used in other contexts to indicate beginner status in other endeavors.

At the other end of the range, drivers over 70 years old decorate their vehicles with a Kōreisha mark. It's actually prohibited for other drivers to cut off a car bearing this symbol - for all the other driver knows, the elderly person might have very poor reflexes.

The other two symbols denote drivers who are hard of hearing or have some other physical handicap; other drivers are expected to give such cars the same extra consideration as with the first two.

989:

They need this bird. I caught this last night. Outtakes from a TV show in the US.

Entire video is less than 2 minutes. The bird bit is 50 seconds in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUQ92cfZFhc

990:

every morning since 06-JAN-2021 my hope upon waking each morning was to hear on the news Trump choked on a greaseburger as his adult children watched and did nothing to help him... no joy...

I've often thought that the best and noblest thing Trump could have done for the country would have been to have died of COVID in 2020 (or whenever it was that he had it).

991:

worst aspect? Trump is not the disease but an overt symptom, the outcome of a disease that keeps flaring up every 3 or 4 decades

Yup. The real problem is not DJT, but the American voters who put him in office. 😠

992:

Yet ... polling appears to be showing DJT ahead ... Why? How?

Poll results in the U.S. are almost meaningless these days. Pollsters have a difficult time contacting people by phone (fewer landlines, people don't answer - and you can guess just how accurate an internet poll would be), so they "adjust" their results.

Add to that the people who lie - intentionally or otherwise. And the people who are currently pissed off at Biden (Israel-Hamas war, etc.), but who will vote for him anyway when the time comes.

So take these poll results with a shaker full of salt...

993:

Why be anonymous

Two reasons: one is that it would be sort of like you proposing that London rename Mucking Marshes after BiJo. Funny Ha Ha and all, but just who the frack do you think you are proposing it? If no one in London said it out loud, it’s because they live there and you don’t.

Second reason is that I don’t feel like getting doxxed by both MAGAts and New Yorkers. Life is short.

Too bad I don’t have a way of contacting John Oliver.

994:

I loved how they worked that bit of real history into Roger Rabbit.

Yeah…turns out that the popular version of the Red Car story, as in Roger Rabbit, is about as true as the Mulholland water story is in Chinatown.

That’s why I linked to that Lost LA episode about the Red Cars. Fun show incidentally, and definitely worth watching if you can.

The truth is closer to what I posted originally: suburban sprawl, insufficient investment, and shoddy maintenance did in the Red Car system.

If you look at what all the tEuropeans are complaining about on this blog, it’s suburban sprawl, insufficient investment, and shoddy maintenance messing up their rail systems.

So guess what, they are now where LA was 75 years ago. Except LA got there as the gasoline age was ramping up, so the post-rail Europe crowd will have to make do with cobalt, lithium, and lots of climate migrants presumably riding bicycles and skateboards.

And so it goes.

995:

IF you (political pollster) can get me to answer the line, you will get a consignment of geriatric shoe manufacturers as an overall response.

996:

Monument to fearless Leader:

There is already something close. A friend who does art drawings of sculptural memes whose sell date has passed, told me about a monument in Greenwood Cemetery (Brooklyn) called "The Triumph of Civic Virtue Over Unrighteousness". It originally sat in front of NYC City Hall, and was commissioned in 1922 to instruct immigrant (men) on how to act. It's a naked guy with a club, standing over some sea-serpenty women trying to grab him. Follow the link for pix. https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/civic-virtue-triumphant-over-unrighteousness

He and I collaborate on art works, so I took a picture of it and photoshopped it in front of Trump Tower. https://reframes.wordpress.com/2016/10/06/debate2016-tritrumph-trump-as-civic-virtue-gos2016-pswtartists/

We could do a go-fund me to move it to FishKills. (Sorry I'm out of practice on embedding tags to make links, and you'll want to inspect them anyway before opening.)

997:

I don't believe it's just cash transactions. IIRC - this was '09 - when I relocated from Chicgo to DC, I found, to my surprise, that Chase had no actual bank within 100 mi of DC. Opened an account with a new bank, and paid for a wire transfer of over $10k. There was the three day wait...

998:

My late ex, who was, in fact, an engineer at the Cape for 17 years, told me she originally got the job when she was in for an interview. She said the interviewer told her she got it when he asked if she had a problem working with hypbergols, and she asked what those were. He told her, "two deadly liquids that explode when thrown together", and she was the only interviewee who didn't run out the door screaming in fear.

999:

I've been screaming for decades that managers of public transit systems should be contractually required to use their transit system every day to go to work, and failure to do so for three times in a two week period cancels their contract.

1000:

ARMs? Really? He's that stupid... well, yes, he is.

1001:

With passenger sharing the tracks with freight in the US, except in the Northeast Corridor, the railroads, as I've said before, only maintain the rails to freight standards. And all this about "high speed rail" when we're lucky to break 60 mph on the rails... I've mentioned the limited a century ago. Amtrak got rid of limiteds, and the results aren't pretty. And anything long distance appears to be viewed as "equivalent of a cruise ship", rather than "alternative to planes".

1002:

As far as I know, the LA intercity transit system was bought by a cement company, who had excellent monetary reasons for running it into the ground.

1003:

Charlie Stross @ 945:

"Everywhere I know anything about Europe (and/or the U.K.) things are close enough nearby you can walk there."

That may be confirmation bias: there are large chunks of the UK you can't easily live in these days without a car -- Thatcher's deregulation of public transport in the 80s had creeping long-term toxic effects, and suburban sprawl has taken hold gradually.

Yeah, maybe I'm wrong. My actual experience is 20 years out of date.

But it appears to me, despite how everything in the U.K. & E.U. has gone downhill since Thatcher, your cities, towns & villages are still more pedestrian friendly than we have here in the U.S. ... and you have a legacy of public transportation infrastructure that we don't have here.

1004:

nice to know not everyone is as oblivious as Americans

sad that "American exceptionalism" means (rarely) learning from others their proven "best practices"

1005:

David L @ 950:

As to the German rail system, when I was using it in 2018 it was decent. Compared to nothing. Or renting a car. But I understand that it has gone downhill over the last 10 to 20 years and I don't have comparison points.

Amtrak?

1006:

It was. It’s what happened to it before that final sale that the conventional story leaves out.

1007:

We could do a go-fund me to move it to FishKills.

Great idea! If you do go live with it, post here so I can donate.

Part of me wanted to have an eternal flame at such a memorial. At Fresh Kills it would be burning off landfill gas that’s too polluted to extract the methane from. Since the equipment is big and ugly, it’d need to be hidden. I was thinking about erecting a copper-clad pyramid around it, just to be appropriately tacky and tasteless, with the stinking flame at the top of the pyramid. Problem is, the permitting and maintenance would be rather tedious if not soul destroying. Alas.

Anyway, your idea is much better. Thank you!

1008:

long held suspicions about polling companies have been soliciting bribes from both parties/candidates in each of a zillion elections to skew the numbers published

most likely? an attempt to publish 'break out victory' to trigger 'self fulfilling prophecy'

1009:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zN2_0WC7UfU

post snarky comments and insightful comments and future show suggestions onto YT videos... as well the show's X/TW feed

1010:

Robert Prior @ 962:

"That may be confirmation bias: there are large chunks of the UK you can't easily live in these days without a car"

I discovered that on my first trip there as an adult, in the 80s. Didn't hire a car because my parents assured me that there were buses everywhere — and they were right for values of England that included the 50s. Getting around outside the cities was problematic. (I really wanted to see archaeological sites.)

OTOH, when I visited Scotland in 2004 I had no problems using public transport to get around to the places I wanted to see. Trains & busses were plentiful.

... and compared to my experiences with trains & busses here in the U.S. comfortable & useful; i.e. it WAS possible to "get there from here" using trains and busses (and frequently I had a choice - there were trains AND busses).

1011:

hmmm...

Trump's face etched into urinal cakes?

or better yet a decal to be applied inside urinals in bars 'n taverns?

"Piss Upon Trump" ... USD $6.95 for a set of 3 decals of varying sizes

{ crackling sound of keyboards as thousands of Americans each hour are ordering a dozen each }

1012:

Charlie @ 983
The railways are both fragmented & starved of money - the tories AND the Treasury still "think" it's 1970, whereas passenger numbers & freight are both climbing, but extra money for the necessary engineering is being deliberately withheld.
See also my post at: 980?

AlanD2 @ 991
IIRC, Pterry also spotted this problem ... that huge numbers of fuckwits WANTED Fascism, or were conned into believing that they did ... until it was far too late.

Last on DJT ...
This insanity ... And, I suspect that the MAGAT's will fall for it & get him "out of jail" - sigh & shudder simultaneously

1013:

Scott Sanford @ 988:

At the other end of the range, drivers over 70 years old decorate their vehicles with a Kōreisha mark. It's actually prohibited for other drivers to cut off a car bearing this symbol - for all the other driver knows, the elderly person might have very poor reflexes.

I gotta get me one of those!

1014:

Re: 'Last on DJT ... [Trump Tower]'

Half wondering whether DT's real concern is that being forced to 'sell' this real estate would publicly announce that he actually already sold it years ago. [GMAC Commerical Mortgage is the owner of record as of 2021. Not sure whether this ever made national headlines or trended on social media.]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Tower#:~:text=As%20of%202021%2C%20the%20building's,City%20Department%20of%20City%20Planning.

His son-in-law is supposedly very real-estate wealthy - why isn't he selling off any of his real estate to help his father-in-law?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kushner_Companies#References

Two items I found particularly interesting in the conflict of interest section:

'In December 2017, the United States District Court for the Eastern District of New York subpoenaed Deutsche Bank records pertaining to Kushner Companies.[39] The New York Times reported in May 2019 that anti-money laundering specialists in the bank detected what appeared to be suspicious transactions involving entities controlled by Donald Trump and Jared Kushner, for which they recommended filing suspicious activity reports with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network of the Treasury Department, but bank executives rejected the recommendations. One specialist noted money moving from Kushner Companies to Russian individuals and flagged it in part because of the bank's previous involvement in a Russian money laundering scheme.[40][41]

In 2020, ProPublica and WNYC reported that Kushner Companies received "a near-record sum" from government-backed lender Freddie Mac. The $786 million in loans helped Kushner Companies purchase thousands of apartments in Maryland and Virginia and appeared to come with "unusually good terms," raising conflict of interest questions due to Jared Kushner's role as Senior Advisor to the President of the United States. [42]'

1015:

Note that much of this real estate is as densely populated and pricey as the suburbs of Tokyo. Buying the land, alone, was going to cost tens of billions.

This is very much an issue with every single passenger rail project in the US. While not Tokyo prices, eye watering amounts never less.

Three things come into play. Passenger standards require widening rail corridors in many places to meet safety needs. No, that right of way established in 1889 is just not wide enough.

Then go go faster you have to straighten out many curvy bits.

And last you have to eliminate grade level crossings.

So these three things alone create huge construction costs on top of real estate takings. Before you actually start buying the trains, building / upgrading the stations, maybe adding new electrical service, etc...

Locally I've watched these two issues take unrealistic local commuter new routes between our smaller (NOT NYC density) cities of 20 to 50 miles and move the costs into just flat out nuts.

The money from the feds has been allocated ($1bil) to take over an unused rail corridor from Raleigh, NC to Richmond, VA. 175 miles give or take. The unused corridor part saves a huge chunk of change. And it is a very straight line mostly through farm lands. And Raleigh built a new city center rail and bus hub a few years ago so at least one end is in place. But any one want to bet it will NOT double in price before done?

https://governor.nc.gov/news/press-releases/2023/12/08/biden-administration-awards-nc-historic-109-billion-grant-s-line-faster-raleigh-richmond-passenger

Heck, real estate prices killed much of a local road improvement project. 2 miles long. Fixing a 7 land total (1 center turn lane) stretch into 6 lanes total with center median and decent bike and sidewalks on the sides. I use this road section all the time and can walk to it in 10 minutes. It has one of the highest crash per mile rates in NC for "city street". But my area of town is booming. So as people fussed and talked and fussed and delayed and fussed and talked and ... the price of the real estate taking kept going up to the point the project costs nearly tripled. Now it has been scaled back. It will still be decent but still cost way more than the original plan started 10 years ago.

1016:

Room Temperature Superconductors

Remember all the news about this back in 2020? It was discussed on this blog with various opinions about if it was real or possible.

Well it turns out the researcher behind all of it seems to have made it up.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/03/report-superconductivity-researcher-found-to-have-committed-misconduct/

1018:

My very first class in grad school for Political Science was taught by a fellow who owned one of the prominent political polling companies in Canada, who largely did polling for the Conservatives.

The first class was on September 12th, 2001. He opened by stating that it was obvious to everyone who knew anything that Iraq had orchestrated the attacks and would need to be invaded.

It was at that point that I realized I had chosen the wrong class. Not because I knew otherwise, but because nobody could have know anything at that point in time. His views were the filter that decided what counted as a fact. In the decades since I have seen the exact same pattern in every poll his company has ever published.

1019:

Except LA got there as the gasoline age was ramping up, so the post-rail Europe crowd will have to make do with cobalt, lithium, and lots of climate migrants presumably riding bicycles and skateboards.

Unlikely: a combination of factors are making cars unpopular among younger generations (Millennials/Zoomers) -- spiraling insurance rates, the lack of cheap entry-level vehicles, EV batteries retain their value so put a floor under the price of second hand electric cars an order of magnitude higher than of yore, and so on. Driving rates among under-25s are below 50%, IIRC -- not "do they drive" but "can they drive at all".

Meanwhile, local councils are finally beginning to take control of municipal bus services again, the 15 minute city movement is booming (to the dismay of car-oriented Tories, whose voter base is increasingly elderly), cities with any kind of sensible transport policy are building bike lanes for all the right reasons and because they're much cheaper to maintain, and so on.

My money would be on car ownership being at or close to peak automobile in the UK and probably much of Europe, and declining after 2030 except in rural areas (which, as noted, are rather smaller than in the USA).

1020:

Kentucky, while not a rectangle

I always thought Tennessee as being a sort of awkwardly squashed rectangle, and Kentucky is its hat. Or if Tennessee is an angry rooster facing east, Kentucky is its comb. :)

It's interesting to compare Kentucky with the Southeast Queensland (SEQ) region in terms of density and transit infrastructure. Kentucky is about 4.5 million people over about 105,00km^2, while SEQ (depending on the boundaries) is about 1/3 the size at 35,000km^2 and up to about 4 million people. The entire state of Queensland is a different scale, 1.8 million km^2 for 5.5 million people.

The point is that looking at Queensland as a whole there's a natural tendency to think of it like it's a uniform distribution, whereas obviously most Queenslanders live in SEQ. It means that the relative population density on the regional scale is dramatically different. SEQ in a direct comparison has higher population density than Kentucky, although to be fair it borders some areas that are quite sparse by European and even US standards, and these border areas that are profoundly sparse by anyone's standards (sparse but not empty! there is evidence of semi-continuous habitation in many areas pre-colonisation going back millennia).

There are areas that are very sparse in the USA and especially Canada too, even allowing for Mercator distortions in our perception of the area in higher latitudes. In the UK, while I'm sure it's very possible to get lost in the woods or on a moor, the scale is just very different.

Anyhow public transport in SEQ is probably not too different to somewhere like Kentucky, but with expectations that align more toward European service levels. Density is generally the reason given why ambitious transport projects struggle. There's a lot of metro type public transport infrastructure being built constantly around Brisbane, and the rail corridors are great in areas with more population (or easily overcome terrain), not so great in others and "replaced by coaches because the 19th century rail tunnels were too expensive to expand to cater to electrification" in others still.

1021:

In the UK, while I'm sure it's very possible to get lost in the woods or on a moor, the scale is just very different.

Not necessarily: for example, the Scottish Highlands have about 600,000 people crammed into half the entire land area of Scotland (population: nearly 6M). And Scotland in turn (6M people) is 80,000 km^2 compared to 210,000 km^2 for the entirety of GB (nearly 60M people). So the highlands are at 1/30 the population density of GB overall.

So: Scotland is a bit denser than Kentucky, but not ridiculously so. Whereas England is another matter entirely ...

1022:

Density is generally the reason given why ambitious transport projects struggle.

Yes. Of the 4.5 million people, a third live around the city of Louisville. Add in Lexington and Covington metro areas and you're up to over 40% of the state's population. Plus a chunk south of Cincinnati.

So nearly 1/2 of the population is rural or in small cities. Which makes public transportation across the state hard to do. And inside these smaller cities it gets harder and harder as most of them are slowing (or even quickly) shrinking. Living in a small city apartment and walking or taking the bus to the railroad hub / repair center or small factory just isn't there any more.

Paducah had a locomotive railroad repair center for decades. Steam then diesel electric. But those jobs just don't exist in large numbers as the need just isn't there with modern locomotives. Plus banana trains don't come up from New Orleans and split out around the country at Fulton much, if at all, any more. Then for a few decades and maybe still, the coal trains from the strip mines in central Ky would haul the coal down to the river junctions for loading onto barges or to make up trains for the larger power stations. So Paducah was a common point for servicing such. There is still a company or few making use of the tracking and big buildings but not the 100s or 1000s of workers.

Look at this map and figure out where Louisville and Lexington are. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentucky#Demographics

1023:

Re: GMAC & Trump Tower

Decided to check GMAC further ... because why would GMAC (the auto financing part of GM Corp) buy Trump Tower?

They've changed their name/been absorbed by Ally Financial [per below] which is majority owned by institutional investors (i.e., anyone might be a part owner). 'Institutional investors' are subject to less regulatory oversight.

Here's the info on the acquisition- reads like a PR piece:*

https://www.cheddarflow.com/blog/who-owns-ally-bank-exploring-the-history-and-milestones-of-ally-financial/#:~:text=Ownership%20Structure%20of%20Ally%20Bank,part%20of%20the%20financial%20world.

*This url/site pitches itself as a financial analysis/trading tool, its example shows crypto trades.

Continuing down this rabbit hole, I learned about dark pools of liquidity, i.e., how to trade outside the usual routes.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/050614/introduction-dark-pools.asp

Back to the present ...

Examples of DT's fiddling with real estate valuations wrt Trump Tower.

https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/tto_release_properties_addendum_-_final.pdf

1024:

because why would GMAC (the auto financing part of GM Corp) buy Trump Tower?

GMAC and GE Capital are the result of the 2008 mess. Both GM and GE discovered that leasing was more profitable than banking. And gradually ran their companies as banks more than large manufacturing company. Then we had 2008. And in the resultant mess both had to be spun off as independent entities. Which exposed the weakness of the manufacturing operations. GM seems to have survived (with a little help from their friends). GE is likely to split up as large chunks of it don't know how to make a profit if it only involves building and maintaining stuff.

1025:

As well as car ownership rates being likely to decline - and that's a nicely measurable thing - car usage is likely to decline much sooner among those who own one.

Various reasons, but some big ones are the cost of parking and the ease of public transport. For some journeys it's just easier for me to take the bus.

1026:

R I P

see you in the virtual version of heaven

1027:

Thanks to a book that dropped through the letterbox earlier today I now have The Prisoner theme earworming. On the other hand, I suspect I know what my next binge-watch will be.

1028:

...whereas here in New York City we take turns inhaling vs exhaling whilst riding the subway (UK eqv = "tubes / underground") during crush hour

and what qualifies as a walk in closet (200 SQ FT / 19 SQ M) for 96% of Americans is deemed a decent sized studio apartment

the upside of the density is in everything being within 20 blocks... not just food stores but most everything else necessary for survival such as decent baked goods and pizza at 3 AM

1029:

A couple of Mac-related technical questions I'd be grateful if someone could answer (or point me to an answer on the internet, because I haven't found one). Running MacOS 10.12.6 Sierra…

First, I have an epub file that looks like an epub file on my Mac, but when I copy it to Dropbox it shows up as a folder. On the Mac command-clicking the file shows an option of "Show package contents" which doesn't appear for epub files that copy to Dropbox as a single file. How do I make it a single file so that I can copy it to Dropbox (and get it into Marvin from there)?

Possibly related to that, I found the file while doing a filename search on my Mac, looking for this particular title while I knew I'd read a few years ago (and couldn't find on my iPad). I found the file on my iCloud Drive inside a hidden folder named "Books" which I can't display to see what other books are there. I've hunted for an answer and the only think I can see in the first couple of pages of search results is to type command-shift-period, which didn't display anything. (Other option is to type in some commands in the terminal and restart the finder, which I'm unwilling to do when I don't understand what those commands are doing.) I've copied the file from iCloud to my hard drive, renamed it, and it still copies to Dropbox as a folder.

About the time I last read the book I'd had trouble with iBooks on the iPad crashing and losing most of my library (while not taking up any less iPad memory), and I think this is one of the books that I read in iBooks. It's not showing up now in either iBooks or Marvin.

1030:

May your True Name never be revealed, Vernon!

1031:

epub files are zip files with an uncompressed MimeType file as the first item. If the structure has been scrambled it's possible it shows as an epub in some places but as an ordinary zip file in others. Looks like there are various epub integrity checkers available both online and offline.

1032:

From Wikipedia, "Benbecula (/bɛnˈbɛkjʊlə/ ⓘ; Scottish Gaelic: Beinn nam Fadhla or Beinn na Faoghla) is an island of the Outer Hebrides in the Atlantic Ocean off the west coast of Scotland. In the 2011 census, it had a resident population of 1,283 with a sizable percentage of Roman Catholics. It is in a zone administered by Comhairle nan Eilean Siar or the Western Isles Council. The island is about 12 kilometres (7 miles) from west to east and a similar distance from north to south." There are roads through the centre of the island N-S and along the South and West coasts.

Royal Artillery units from Ingurlundshire have been known to go out on map reading exercises on this island and get lost overnight.

1033:

David L @ 1017
That is truly sad - only a year older than me, too.

Rbt Prior
when I copy it to Dropbox
OK, I give in .. WHAT THE FUCK is "dropbox"?
I have assumed for the past several years, that it is simply a MicroShaft con-trick & have refused to have anything to do with it ... like "OneSkive" on MS systems.

Paws & Charlie A fortnight ago, I made my first traverses of Rannoch Moor ... Horribly easy to get lost in daylight on such a landscape, I think.

1034:
His son-in-law is supposedly very real-estate wealthy - why isn't he selling off any of his real estate to help his father-in-law?

No doubt Kushner has an excellent idea about how trustworthy his father in law is. Plus he likely has the same loyalty to DJT as DJT has to him.

1035:

I know internet search is broken these days, but it's not that broken:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dropbox

1036:

If you want to do a Trump Dump—of real estate—I found curbed.com has a 2023 run down of what he owns in NYC. It’s educational. I’d never run across the term ground rent before, but it comes from feudal English law, apparently.

https://www.curbed.com/article/trump-lawsuit-real-estate-nyc-letitia-james.html

The tl;Dr is that New York may not get the full settlement out of Don Trump, but they’ll sure embarrass him…and leave a number of building NAS looking for new property managers.

In related reporting, TPM is highlighting how Don Trump is increasingly being treated as a mafia boss, loyalty, omertà, and all, by his underlings. https://talkingpointsmemo.com/morning-memo/donald-trump-paul-manafort-russia-money-laundering-pardons

Of course, if you listen to former mafiosi, you’ll hear that the fabled mafia values are given li service as often as they’re followed, as one would expect. Perhaps Don Trump should be careful about letting Ivanka or Jared too close any time soon?

Also of course, parallels between the behavior of mob bosses and billionaires (notional or otherwise) are not coincidental. That much wealth destroys normal human relationships, and the powerful often find that transactional relationships based on loyalty, discretion, and an obvious power hierarchy are safer than one built on family ties, friendship, or love. Sucks to be powerful, too.

1037:

Newsweek had the same question this week: https://www.newsweek.com/could-ivanka-jared-kushner-pay-donald-trump-legal-fees-1881694#

Their answer was that Kushner likely doesn’t have that kind of cash lying around either. To be fair, if any person had that kind of money, they’d invest it too. No one needs that kind of cash on hand unless they’re dealing with an emergency.

I’ll reiterate my first take: Trump has four ways out of this mess: the two very unlikely ones are that he dies or wins on appeal. The unlikely one is that he wins the election and becomes dictator, thereby gutting the legal system. Most likely, he loses both the election and the case, and spends his life on legal delaying actions until his lawyers get sick of getting stiffed.

1038:

OK, I give in .. WHAT THE FUCK is "dropbox"?

Luckily you don't need to apply for a job where you MIGHT have to use a computer any more.

Surely you tried a search before asking?

Dropbox is a cloud file syncing service that has be very popular for OVER 10 YEARS. I'm not a big fan but there are a lot of them. It creates a folder on each computer you want to sync and anything changes made in that folder are replicated on the other computers / phones / tablets and the dropbox online account you have.

Very similar to Microsoft OneDrive. And Apple's iCloud. But iCloud has some big differences that make me (long time Mac user) run away.

1039:

A couple of Mac-related technical questions

I don't do epub files but the other person had what seemed like a good suggestion.

Packaged files are really a folder full of things that the system presents to the user as a single file. Check out what the other person suggested. It sounds like it got confused internally. Maybe in a minor way.

(Other option is to type in some commands in the terminal and restart the finder, which I'm unwilling to do when I don't understand what those commands are doing.)

In Terminal

defaults write com.apple.finder AppleShowAllFiles Yes

killall Finder

Change the Yes to No to hide all those hidden files. CASE MATTERS

It is safe. I do it multiple times per week on systems I support. I leave it this way on the admin accounts I work in. But off in the normal user accounts.

You DO have your day to day use account(s) set to Standard and have an alternate account as Admin for security reasons. Right? (I know the answer.)

Dropbox and iCloud shared / sync'd folders can be hard to get to in the finder. Also in terminal you can enter a command then drag a folder name from a Finder window to the line in terminal you're typing on and it will drop in the full path to the folder. You can use it in Terminal or copy it into the Finder "Go To Folder" menu command.

I'd use "ls -al " as the command to use to get the folder path as it will also show you the contents of the folder in full Unix glory.

1040:

Dropbox is a cloud file syncing service...

You can also use Dropbox for 1:1 file sharing. You give it the email for whoever you want to send your file to, and it sends that one a link that works to get the file. This is actually useful.

Cloud file syncing for the kinds of things I like to do with my computer would require far too much network traffic.

1041:

Re: 'Trump Dump—of real estate—I found curbed.com has run down of what he owns in NYC.'

Thanks - very interesting articles! Never heard of ground rent before either. DT's got another daughter whose husband is the son of a Nigerian billionaire - wedding took place at Mar-a-Lago.

1042:

You DO have your day to day use account(s) set to Standard and have an alternate account as Admin for security reasons. Right? (I know the answer.)

That's how I set this computer up (and all my other Macs).

However, when I checked just now my main account is also the Admin account. Looks like the shop that installed my new HD upgraded the system and restored my files just created a single account and I never noticed. (I haven't done anything admin-related since this happened so didn't go looking for the admin account.)

This is a bit worrying.

If I create a new account and make it Admin, can I safely change my regular account to standard without screwing things up? Or will I be causing myself problems that way?

1043:

Most likely, he loses both the election and the case, and spends his life on legal delaying actions until his lawyers get sick of getting stiffed.

From what I've seen and read, these days Trump's lawyers are demanding their pay in advance. (Only a fool would wait to send Trump a bill after representing him in court...)

1044:

When I choose "Show Package Contents" I get a window showing three items: a folder "META-INF", a TextEdit file "mimetype", and a folder "OEBPS" (in that order, which may just be the way the command works).

The META-INF folder contains a single file "container.xml".

The OEBPS folder contains "~WRD0004body.html", "~WRD0004opf.opf", "~WRD0004.ncx", five files "body1.html" to "body5.html", and "image.001.jpeg" which is the cover.

When I upload it to the Vancouver Public Library's validator (Draft2Digital.com) I get the error "ERROR(PKG-006): (-1,-1): Mimetype file entry is missing or is not the first file in the archive."

When I open the "mimetype" file in TextEdit I see "application/epub+zip".

1045:

You can also use Dropbox for 1:1 file sharing

Yes. And no. You have to be careful. Dropbox doesn't deal with file locking and such. Opening a file in two or more places at one time can corrupt a file.

Syncing, sharing, and backup all separate things. I keep running into people who think they are the same but have lost a pile of files.

1046:

If I create a new account and make it Admin, can I safely change my regular account to standard without screwing things up?

Yes. But make sure you can log into the new Admin and that it IS an admin account before demoting the other. And demote it from the new admin. I honestly don't know if the System Preferences UI will let you self demote. If it does on that OS I can show you how to create a brand new admin account but it can be tedious if you're not comfortable with Terminal.

I'm a bit of belt and suspenders guy but when setting up a system I set up a primary admin, a secondary admin (for if the primary gets corrupted and you can't log in with it), and a "service" admin account with a crazy 16 character random string as a password. I give that last one to any repair people. (If they ask I simplify the password while they have the computer.) And yes I know any admin can wreak havoc but they have to try and not just "accidentally" see your photo lib or whatever.

Then I hid them from the login screen.

In Terminal:

sudo dscl . create /Users/hiddenuser IsHidden 1

replace "hiddenuser" with each of the accounts you want to not show in the login screen or System Preferences. But their account folders still show in /Users/.....

Flip the 1 to a 0 to unhide later.

PS: In Terminal the up and down arrows allow you to scroll through previous commands to you don't have to re-type them all. Just edit the bits that you want to change.

1047:

When I choose "Show Package Contents"

Open up a "good" one and one you're having issues with. Put the folder displays side by side. See if you can spot any discrepancies.

Plus an Internet search will likely give you a few 100 hits on what the internal package format should be.

1048:

It's showing you the files in alphabetic order in the package contents, and the Vancouver validator is showing the mimetype file is out of place. You might be able to fix it by creating a new zip file, adding the mimetype file on its own first, then the rest of the files.

1049:

anonemouse { Oh & David L } I said that I ASSUMED it was part of MicroShaft & therefore an attempt on my money & security - BUT it appears not to be.
I've been... not bombarded, but certainly had lots of Dropbox "advertising" which automatically made me suspicious - OK? Big hairy deal ... now then...
How trustworthy & safe is it?

Oh & I REFUSE to use MS' "One Drive" - I want to store my files where I want them convenient in my hierarchical order, not some faceless sysadmin-in-California's ideas of where I "should" put my data. Again, OK?

1050:

Greg, Dropbox is not part of MicroShaft.

"How trustworthy & safe is it? "

My experience is OK, and I've not heard different. However sensible precautions:

Anything that's critical it not be compromised (such as your password database) apply your own encryption before you load it into Dropbox. My password application does that as a matter of course.

Anything that you really can't afford to lose if they mess up or go broke, have a copy elsewhere.

One thing they are very good for is sending files to other people when they are too big for e-mail. Instead, you put the file into Dropbox, and get it to generate a link, which you can put into a brief e-mail. The link then enables the recipient to grab a copy of just that file (read-only; they can't update it). They don't need a Dropbox account to get the file from the link.

I've had to do this a fair bit for a history project where I had to send a lot of scanned ddocuments.

JHomes

1051:

I find Dropbox very useful for sharing photos with people. I can simply send them a link to a folder containing what I want to send them. It is also useful for sharing files between different devices such as my Linux computers and my phone. Not a huge user of it, but it is handy to have available. Nothing to do with m/s, I'm a microshaft free zone.

1052:

Oh & I REFUSE to use MS' "One Drive" - I want to store my files where I want them convenient in my hierarchical order, not some faceless sysadmin-in-California's ideas of where I "should" put my data. Again, OK?

So which OS is fine with you? Is only MS the problem, or are there others?

Even I'm not paranoid enough to build my own internet shared disk (and that would be kind of paranoia-inducing, considering that having a file server accessible from the public internet is kind of a nice target for all kinds of malcontents...). So I'd be happy to hear suitable options.

1053:

"...but have to travel for two hours in shitty local trains in order to reach any major main station, and then another two hours in shitty local trains in order to reach their actual destination..."

When the overall system is fainting in coils, the shitty local trains are the better part. Recently, I had to travel from Frankfurt Airport to Göttingen and back. The outward journey, using long-distance express trains, was a stressfest with no information, late departure, iffy connections (45s to run across Frankfurt Hauptbahnhof to catch the last onward train of the day). The return, which fell on a strike day, used a string of Regional trains (4 changes). More information, trains ran nearer to time and for the one connection that broke there was a following service on the same route within 10 minutes. And it only took an hour longer than the normal route.

Hyperspeed poshmobile units are nice, but their ecosystem is fragile. Old-school trains in quantity are more resilient.

1054:

Open up a "good" one and one you're having issues with. Put the folder displays side by side. See if you can spot any discrepancies.

The 'good' ones don't have the option to show the package contents.

I realized that this computer has iBooks (never used it to read ebooks, just test my photo ebooks which I haven't created for years so I'd forgotten about it). So on a whim I dragged the 'bad' epub file onto iBooks and it added it to the library and I can read it there. (Uncomfortably rather than curled up in my favourite chair, but I can read it.)

So I think what may have happened is that the original file was one that I loaded into iBooks (on my iPad) from Dropbox years ago, and when it loaded it iBooks changed the ePub file a bit and the version in the hidden Books folder in my iCloud disk is the backup version of that file (I had the iCloud set to backup photos and ebooks, as well as addresses and the calendar).

I'll try Vulch's trick of creating a zip file and manually loading the items this weekend. Right now I need to run out and get stuff done before the snow hits, and then I need to create that admin account for this computer.

1055:

Hyperspeed poshmobile units are nice, but their ecosystem is fragile. Old-school trains in quantity are more resilient.

I've said for years that I don't really need high speed rail; what I want to see is more frequent rail. Why can't I just walk into the train station whenever it's convenient to me and check the departures board for the next train going to a different city?

(Also on time rail, but that's a thing America is perversely bad at for reasons that don't apply in the rest of the world.)

1056:

So which OS is fine with you? Is only MS the problem, or are there others?

Three Dead Trolls in a Baggie have an answer to that… every OS sucks:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CPRvc2UMeMI

If the very long intro in that clip is too tedious, there's this version from Wes Borg's solo album:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FqJZ9i8p-b0

1057:

There are legit businesses who mostly deal in cash - the two that readily come to mind are "flea market" dealers and small farms with roadside fruit/vegetable stands.

I can't remember the last time I used cash. For anything.

Covid led to everybody using contactless readers that worked through a glass/perspex screen and the habit spread. The same readers do chip-and-pin for larger amounts. I pay 50p with contactless to use the air pump at the petrol station. I use contactless at market stalls. I use contactless with the food vans that come to our village sometimes. I use contactless to buy a bar of chocolate. I've used contactless for a payment of 8p (I don't remember what or why, but I did).

I nearly found myself forced to use a taxi in the Seattle area because I assumed "of course buses take contactless". Luckily there was a cash machine close to the stop (though the charges ended up at about 300% of the fare).

1058:

Well, yeah, I've had Macbooks as my work laptops for the last twenty years, basically from the point when I was asked what kind of laptop I want. I picked that one because I hadn't used OS X (or any Macs) at all, so I wanted to know why they were bad.

At home I was running some Windows, Linux (I think Ubuntu), and FreeBSD at the time. I knew their annoyances, and wanted something new.

Now at home I have W10 and various Linux boxes, and iOS. Everything sucks, yes, it's just picking the ones that suck the least, for me. (Not sure what the game consoles and such things have but I don't need to know their OSes to know they suck...)

1059:

Ironically, that song is becoming increasing outdated. I've just been informed that my phone is migrating to fibre and I have no choice (other than delaying it as long as possible). The thought that network problems or power outages could cut my connection to 911 is rather worrying. And modern televisions all seem to be "smart" and require internet access to activate…

So "My phone doesn't take a week to boot it, my TV doesn't crash when I mute it" is becoming a thing of the past. :-/

I remember when they migrated the phones at work to network phones. We had intermittent network problems and were in the interior of an old building with no cell signal — this was important because the response when I asked how to call 911 for a lab accident was "use your cell" and when I asked how to call in a network problem when the phone didn't work that was the response too. It was supposed to provide us with 'extra features', which oddly we couldn't use because no teachers had that level of access. It was also supposed to save money, which I rather doubt because the network techs were out so often that they almost became members of the department.

I feel as if I'm sliding into Gregdom, an old greybeard railing that "everything since the abacus, just a bunch of crap", only without the beard! :-)

1060:

I’d never run across the term ground rent before, but it comes from feudal English law, apparently.

Possibly originally, but it's a very current thing. When you buy a house, there are three basic options. One is freehold, where you own the house and grounds forever or until you sell it again. One is something newer that the last time I bought a house called commonhold, which I think allows the occupants of a building to own it as a group.

And then there's leasehold, where you get a lease on the house and grounds for some length of time. Traditionally a lease on a new building was 99 or 999 years, but if you're buying off the present occupant it might be 82 years or 734 years. As the leaseholder you have just about all the rights of a freehold owner - you decide what happens to the house and garden and whether you build an extension or knock it down, you have to pay the costs of maintaining it, nobody can evict you, you pay any property taxes - but a separate freeholder has the final ownership of the land and you pay them rent - "ground rent" - to recognize that fact.

The deeds of a leasehold property might have other conditions, such as you have to buy your house insurance through the freeholder (at their rates, not market rates) or that the ground rent doubles every 10 years. There has been enough misuse of this system in new builds by big building companies that there have been lots of cries for reform. After 2 (I think) years you have the right to buy the freehold at a (complexly determined) price. New leases have a legal maximum ground rent of one peppercorn per year (no, that's not a joke). And, I hope, some of the excesses have been curbed.

(Since I only ever buy freehold, this is all academic to me. Though I once nearly bought a house that came with £42 per annum ground rent from next door.)

1061:

Yes, the UK's existing network can in principle be upgraded to take express trains running at about 160mph (old money applies, the network was built out in 1830-1860). But fast trains take much longer distances to come to a stop than commuter trains running at under 100mph. Upshot is, each intercity express occupies about 2-3 commuter train slots.

140 mph (225 km/h - search "InterCity 225") is the highest I've ever seen proposed for the existing network. It was for the King's Cross to Edinburgh route, using tilting trains; the fast tracks from Peterborough to Stoke (south of Grantham) were cleared for 140 mph running with modified signalling (flashing green lights involved). But the Railway Inspectorate said exceeding 125 mph wasn't allowed without cab signalling (think ETCS these days).

I would disagree with your "fast trains take longer to stop" comment but I'm looking at a specific case: the commuter train I used to get to London this morning (I'm working here this week) goes at 100 mph and all trains allowed to run faster than 100 mph on the traditional lines are required to have better brakes so that they can stop in the same distance as 100 mph trains (thus not needing new signalling). As a result, at the Welwyn bottleneck it's the slow trains that take up 2 slots and the fast trains that take up 1.

I don't recall any proposals to make HS2 be four-track. The tracks are bidirectional so that you can still run a service if one track is out of use, and stations other than termini will be on passing loops to let non-stop trains get past. Look at the Paris to Lille/Brussels LGV to get the idea. Yes, it was intended to take all the major traffic routes off the existing network so that the commuter and freight trains could run at the same sort of average speed, which improves the overall bandwidth.

1062:

Not sure what the game consoles and such things have but I don't need to know their OSes to know they suck...

The Steam Deck presents itself as a games console with the usual gamified pick-a-game-to-play-now UI, but just barely buried under the hood is a switch to dump you into Arch Linux, and it's actually a pretty sweet linux portable (although it needs an external TV or monitor and keyboard/mouse for serious use).

1063:

So "My phone doesn't take a week to boot it, my TV doesn't crash when I mute it" is becoming a thing of the past.

Things ARE getting better. But in the 3 steps forward then 1 or 2 back way of progress.

Smart TVs exist because of price. Turns out a smart TV is more profitable than a dumb one. As the manufacturers charge a bit of money for each app they allow to be pre-loaded. The extra computing power is trivial to go from a 4K TV to a 4K smart TV. Adding OTA decoders is currently one of the costliest things due to circuits and licensing. They also collect metrics on what is watched. And SELL THEM to the companies that aggregate such. And take a slice of the monty fees

And they are security nightmares. Most people don't think of them as computers so when the manufacturers don't update the firmware on a regular basis the owners don't notice.

I tell people to use an AppleTV or Roku or similar to watch TV. And treat the TV as a dumb screen. At least then you know what is happening or have some ability to know what is happening with the metrics. More often than not I get looks like I have 2 heads with 5 eyes each.

There is a client I've worked with since 95. Set up a key phone system, then a digital one, then 3 generations of IP phones. Things ARE better now. But for the first 5 or so years, IP phones had a raft of issues at first as companies like Cisco took over a lot of duties performed by the incumbent carriers for decades.

I spend years in CLI's before it was known as CLI. I've laid out logic circuits. Programed IO drivers and made OS mods in hex. Written object / hex to assembly apps. Uphill in the snow. Both ways.

I LIKE GUIs. I like my iPhone, iPad, Macs, and yes while not as much Windows 10. (Just now Win 11 feels like a step back but we'll see.)

Driving a 1960s car sucks. It can be fun for a bit but as a daily thing? Nope.

1064:

The Steam Deck presents itself as a games console with the usual gamified pick-a-game-to-play-now UI, but just barely buried under the hood is a switch to dump you into Arch Linux, and it's actually a pretty sweet linux portable (although it needs an external TV or monitor and keyboard/mouse for serious use).

Yeah, I've been thinking of getting one, but I don't really need a new computer.

I already have the Clockwork Pi handheld, but it's obviously in a very different category from a Steam Deck. It runs on a modified Raspbian.

1065:

As a practical mater anything with a CPU for the last 10 (well really 20) years has an OS under it. Some were dedicated in house things but an OS non the less. The days of non OS things is mostly over.

Many hidden OS's were versions of QNX. Which Blackberry bought to use to make Blackberry work as modern phones. Then went bust and roiled that market.

My car dash infotainment system (not the vehicle controls) runs a Android 4.3.3 I think. A combination of key presses turns it into an Android tablet.

1066:

J Homes
IF you read what I wrote at 1049, you will see that I now realise that - but I didn't at the time.
However, I like the "large file transfer" ability.
I also might find it useful for reproducing ancient pictures, usually of ... guess what sort of subject?
See also Tony M @ 1051

Mikko
I'm on MS Windoze 10 - as is "The Boss", because that's what her office uses & Win11 is (or appears to be) a heap of shit. Contrariwise I really don't like Apple/Mac either - their "walled garden" is or appears to be a rip-off.
Presently I find MS the lesser of two evils.
AGREE horribly with your remarks in # 1058

Rbt Prior
an old greybeard railing that "everything since the abacus, just a bunch of crap" - NOT SO, actually.
Everything SHOULD be much better, but the so-called "business administrators" (or whatever) seem determined to trash & wreck every actual advance by screwing with the user interfaces ... or something.
I mean, let's not go back to re-installing Windoze via a stack of floppies, eh?

1067:

A man comes up to Joe Biden complaining of crushing debt ...

Joe says, "I'm sorry Donald, I can't help you."

1068:

David L @ 1015:

"Note that much of this real estate is as densely populated and pricey as the suburbs of Tokyo. Buying the land, alone, was going to cost tens of billions."

This is very much an issue with every single passenger rail project in the US. While not Tokyo prices, eye watering amounts never less.

Three things come into play. Passenger standards require widening rail corridors in many places to meet safety needs. No, that right of way established in 1889 is just not wide enough.

Then go go faster you have to straighten out many curvy bits.

And last you have to eliminate grade level crossings.

On a lighter note, in Durham, NC the Can Opener Bridge has been raised six inches - it's now at 12ft 4in .... but still doing its JOB. 🙃

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tO6x0eBnrmU

1069:

What the game consoles to, OS or not, is work to purpose. My kids have had various consoles in the house which have done exactly what they are supposed to do for multiple years without issue.

I'll grant they are likely terrible for general purpose computing, but for gaming or watching media they are very good and very reliable. I wouldn't do any banking on there, but why would you?

Simple enough interfaces that a toddler can use them (I have direct experience of this), durable for up to a decade.

1070:

Win11 is (or appears to be) a heap of shit. Contrariwise I really don't like Apple/Mac either - their "walled garden" is or appears to be a rip-off.

Win11 is indeed a heap of shit. Even compared to Win10, which is saying a lot.

macOS ... is not as much of a walled garden as you might think, indeed less so than Win11: Win11 has in many respects tried to copy macOS, only Microsoft did it badly then layered intrusive advertising crap on top (macOS is definitely not advertiser friendly, once you ditch Safari and start using Firefox or another ad-unfriendly browser -- NB, NOT Chrome, although there are non-Google-tied versions of the open source Chromium browser fork).

iOS and iPadOS and WatchOS and tvOS are all pretty much tied down ... but again, the competition is Android/ChromeOS/Amazon's FireOS, all of which try to monetize your eyeballs much more aggressively than Apple.

1071:

Rocketpjs @ 1018:

My very first class in grad school for Political Science was taught by a fellow who owned one of the prominent political polling companies in Canada, who largely did polling for the Conservatives.

The first class was on September 12th, 2001. He opened by stating that it was obvious to everyone who knew anything that Iraq had orchestrated the attacks and would need to be invaded.

It was at that point that I realized I had chosen the wrong class. Not because I knew otherwise, but because nobody could have know anything at that point in time. His views were the filter that decided what counted as a fact. In the decades since I have seen the exact same pattern in every poll his company has ever published.

Except that the U.S. National Security PROFESSIONALS did already know on Sept 11 that it was al Qaeda and tried to tell Bush/Cheney that Iraq had nothing to do with it.

Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld had long wanted a new "Pearl Harbor" as an excuse to invade Iraq to redeem Daddy Bush's FAILURE from '90 & '91 (along with their own failures).

Determined to be the ANTI-Clinton, GWB completely ignored the threat of Wahhabist (Saudi) extremism & Islamic terrorism. They fucked it up & then used their own fuckup to push the U.S. into invading Iraq (and would have invaded Iran NEXT if they hadn't so damn incompetently created disaster in Iraq).

FWIW they also ignored the HOME GROWN threat from NON-Islamic extremists here in the U.S. as well ... going so far as to appoint TWO of them to the Supreme Court.

1072:

Damian @ 1020:

"Kentucky, while not a rectangle"

I always thought Tennessee as being a sort of awkwardly squashed rectangle, and Kentucky is its hat. Or if Tennessee is an angry rooster facing east, Kentucky is its comb. :)

Tennessee is a parallelogram; Kentucky is an obtuse triangle

1073:

Plus he likely has the same loyalty to DJT as DJT has to him

hmmm... how best to summarize that? without leaving myself open to libel suits?

ah!

"involuntary organ donor"

as in, JK was viewed by DJT as a potential resource if ever a kidney was needed... never mind fiddly bits such as consent (which appears to be a possible deliberately sought outcome of longer term trends in rolling back civil rights of 80% of Americans)

JK might not be the sharpest knife in the drawer (as demonstrated by twists 'n turns in his university acceptance) but he was never so stupid as to trust anything his FIL said... although his wisdom in getting involved in the grift was questionable back in 2015 and is now obvious JK not going to ever allow himself to be in any more photographs with DJT never mind business deals in 2024

1074:

Robby @ 1025:

As well as car ownership rates being likely to decline - and that's a nicely measurable thing - car usage is likely to decline much sooner among those who own one.

Various reasons, but some big ones are the cost of parking and the ease of public transport. For some journeys it's just easier for me to take the bus.

I think one cause is the natural progression of aging. I don't drive as much as I used to. I think Charlie's point is that young people aren't replacing older people as drivers.

So ownership and use rates will both decline as those of us who still DO drive get older.

As long as people can get to where they want to go, it doesn't seem to me to matter too much HOW they get there ... and maybe some means of transportation are less environmentally detrimental.

So I say YES to public transportation so everybody can be as mobile as I want to be and still not destroy the earth.

1075:

Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld had long wanted a new "Pearl Harbor" as an excuse to invade Iraq to redeem Daddy Bush's FAILURE from '90 & '91 (along with their own failures).

Disagree. It was nastier than that.

The Bush family was/is in the Texas oil industry, as are Cheney and Rumsfeld. Some members of my family were also in that industry, and I heard comments. One was that Texas wildcatters weren’t known to be terribly honest, but if they shook on a deal, they honored it. Except for the Bush family. With them you got it in writing and had lawyers at the ready.

And George I was head of the CIA. Don’t forget that.

So the basic point of Desert Storm was to turn Saddam into a leashed demon. It worked too. Because of the threat posed by Saddam, the US got to build military bases all through the Persian Gulf, including coercing Saudi Arabia to house US troops, which kind of pissed off Osama even more. But Busy was an oilman, he thought we needed Gulf oil, and measures had to be taken.

When Junior got elected, I told my mom that as soon as his poll numbers got low enough, we were going back to Iraq. No surprise there, lots of people saw it coming. 9/11 happened , but oops it was Saudi nationals mostly, not Iraqis, and worse they were based in Afghanistan, which didn’t have any way of connecting useful minerals to international shipping. Just—heh heh—poppies and pissed off guerrillas we’d trained up a decade earlier and then discarded.

And, predictably, when Bush 2’s post 9/11 popularity boost had subsided, they started beating the war drums for Iraq, because how do they win in Afghanistan?

And, like the fascists they are (ish for Liz Cheney), they got us into not one but two losing wars. If they hadn’t been oil men and had turned the big money onto electricity back in the 90s, we’d be minus a generation of scarred veterans and minus the oil-soaked tinderbox that is the Arab-Persian Gulf.

Oh well.

1076:

PREDICT: some point (SEP? OCT?) the Biden election team will stop selling tee shirts with that joke... and give 'em away by the hundreds of thousands...

trying to defeat the GOP on logic-facts-policy is failing but ridiculing their POTUS candidate is showing some effect

Trump's latest posting of an appeal for donations sounds off-key in his tone as well as wording is most akin to a seventeen year old boy wheedling his girlfriend for sexual servicing

"epic fail"

1077:

hmmm...

obtuse... geographically... sure...

politically...? sadly, yeah

1078:

I know that. You know that. Anyone who has been living outside a cave for the last 23 years knows that. Those of us who were not intelligence professionals did not know anything on Sept. 12, 2001. I just knew that someone had done it, and that my professor at the time was NOT a national security professional and NOT knowing much more than me.

I also knew that Hussein was not suicidal, which is what a leader would have to be to attack the US on US soil. So the notion that Iraq had orchestrated a terrorist attack like that was absurd.

I believe that The Onion posted the most prescient front page in history on the day of GWB's inauguration, quoting GWB as 'Promising and end to the long national nightmare of peace and prosperity' and a 'Gulf type war within 3 years'.

1079:

Charlie Stross @ 1062:

"Not sure what the game consoles and such things have but I don't need to know their OSes to know they suck..."

The Steam Deck presents itself as a games console with the usual gamified pick-a-game-to-play-now UI, but just barely buried under the hood is a switch to dump you into Arch Linux, and it's actually a pretty sweet linux portable (although it needs an external TV or monitor and keyboard/mouse for serious use).

This computer is Windoze10 (I bought it already built with Windoze10 pre-installed because I didn't have time to build a new one when my old one crashed). My Photoshop computer is Windows 7 as is my laptop. I built a file server (10 drives in a pair of "RAID 6" configurations) running TrueNAS, which I understand is based on FreeBSD and I have a "Wintel" iMac that I really need to spend more time with (also intended for photo editing)

... plus several old computers I haven't junked yet because I might want to refurbish them and a Mac Mini I need to install an upgrade (2x2TB SSDs) in.

1080:

Those of us who were not intelligence professionals did not know anything on Sept. 12, 2001.

Uh-huh. We knew by early Sept 12 that it was some kind of islamic group that had done it. And then Dubya made that utter shitshow of a speech in which he declared a crusade against terrorism.

A particularly inflammatory word, considering that "crusade" is translated into Arabic as "jihad".

At that point it was glaringly obvious that the US response would be excessive, misdirected, inappropriate, and disproportionate -- and I use "disproportionate" advisedly, bearing in mind it was a disproportionate response even for a mass fatality attack on the USA. (For October 7th, Israel, Gaza, levels of "disproportionate" if you want to know how it looks from outside. If you want to know what "proportionate" would have looked like, it would have been what Seal Team Six got up to in Pakistan several years late, when Obama took over.)

1081:

Re: '... my phone is migrating to fibre and I have no choice ... network problems or power outages could cut my connection to 911 ... modern televisions all seem to be "smart" and require internet access to activate…'

Same here - my 'landline phone' operates on the same optic fiber connection as my TV and laptop.

I've kept my mobile phone with a different provider -- just in case.

1082:

I tell people to use an AppleTV or Roku or similar to watch TV. And treat the TV as a dumb screen.

That's what I'm doing now. TV is plugged into a receiver, which is connected to my Apple TV, a BluRay player, and a multi-region DVD player. I let the Apple TV to update automatically (the default option). Nothing else is connected to the outside world.

1083:

an old greybeard railing that "everything since the abacus, just a bunch of crap" - NOT SO, actually.

It's a line from the song, Greg.

1084:

Tennessee is a parallelogram; Kentucky is an obtuse triangle

Looking in from the outside, I get the impression Kentucky isn't the only obtuse state down there… :-)

1085:

When Junior got elected, I told my mom that as soon as his poll numbers got low enough, we were going back to Iraq.

In the first few years after 9/11 there was an American newspaper reporter (I forget which one) who had a surprisingly good record for predicting the levels of terror alert. Turned out they totally ignored intelligence and just relied on polls showing support for President Bush.

No surprise there, lots of people saw it coming. 9/11 happened , but oops it was Saudi nationals mostly

Don't forget the Canadian support they had! Several Senators and the head of Homeland Security blamed lax Canadian security for letting them into America, even a decade afterwards. Which is kinda flattering, that they think Canadian security is good enough to keep terrorists off direct flights to America… (for the record, none of them passed through Canada).

And a contra-factual observation: if you folks had conquered us in the War of 1812, casualties on 9/11 would have been a lot higher — because when the FAA closed American airspace there would have been no Canadian cities for those incoming planes to land at, so they would have ditched at sea.

1086:

What, you don't think Apple, who has over $100B in cash, would help poor Donnie?

1087:

Really? You don't occasionally buy a snack, or leave a tip on a table (so that the server gets it)?

1088:

I run AlmaLinux. I ran CentOS since about '09 (what we ran at work), and liked it... until IBM, er, redhat took over CentOS and screwed the pooch, making users beta and alpha testers. Alma does its best to try to be CentOS. There are a few annoyances, but in general, it's ok.

1089:

Huh. I may have heard of ground rent before, but never had to deal with it. Houses in the US, you buy as what you're calling a "freeholder".

1090:

Most trailer parks in the US are based on you rent the lot and buy the trailer. The ability to take your trailer somewhere else being entirely theoretical and virtually impossible as a practical matter.

1091:

Apple

Tim Cook knows he has to play nice with most powerful politicians / office holders in the US and much of the world.

But as a person Tim is not someone a new Trump administration would treat nicely. He is one of those people that many Trump supporters would want to cancel.

1092:

Rbt Prior
Actually it appears, or so you say to be a line from "A song" - which I've never seen or heard - & please ... don't bother.

1093:

Well, you clearly need enough sequential blocks on the storage device to fit a long freight train...

I have an alternate answer: when I relocated from Chicago to the DC area, and was looking at renting, then buying, resulting in two or three changes of email, I gave in. I registered a domain, then, on the advice of a co-worker, bought hosting not from my domain registrar (so if I change hosting providers, there will be no issues, as I'd heard of from, say, GoDaddy). I want someone to see something - for example, I recorded myself reading the first chapter of Becoming Terran, a bit over 8M, then worked with my editor to make it better (I am not an actor, and carry tunes wonderfully well... assuming I have a bucket for them). Put it on my website, in a publically-accessable area that had no reference to it, so I had to email him the link.

My own private dropbox, with no one reading/skimming what's on it.

1094:

Stolen. Posted to FB.

1095:

Two Birds, one stone ...

Heteromeles @ 1075:

"Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld had long wanted a new "Pearl Harbor" as an excuse to invade Iraq to redeem Daddy Bush's FAILURE from '90 & '91 (along with their own failures)."

Disagree. It was nastier than that.

The Bush family was/is in the Texas oil industry, as are Cheney and Rumsfeld. Some members of my family were also in that industry, and I heard comments. One was that Texas wildcatters weren’t known to be terribly honest, but if they shook on a deal, they honored it. Except for the Bush family. With them you got it in writing and had lawyers at the ready.

And George I was head of the CIA. Don’t forget that.

Oh, I haven't forgotten "Mr. George Bush of the CIA" reporting from Dallas on November 23, 1963 ...

So the basic point of Desert Storm was to turn Saddam into a leashed demon. It worked too. Because of the threat posed by Saddam, the US got to build military bases all through the Persian Gulf, including coercing Saudi Arabia to house US troops, which kind of pissed off Osama even more. But Busy was an oilman, he thought we needed Gulf oil, and measures had to be taken.

Saddam Hussein was ALREADY a leashed demon in the summer of 1990. The basic point of Desert Storm was George HW Bush fucked up and let Saddam slip his leash.

Saddam did have a legitimate beef with Kuwait over slant drilling & Kuwait stealing Iraqi oil, which the U.S. should have used diplomacy with both Iraq & Kuwait to resolve peacefully.

And at that, Bush pere was still going to let it slide until Margaret Thatcher got involved:

“Remember George, this is no time to go wobbly.”

Then after fucking that up he fucked up again ending the conflict prematurely .. Coitus interruptus exactly 45 years too late, but "exactly 100 hours war" was going to be such a lovely campaign slogan to use in the 1992 election ...

[Which he followed up by betraying the Shia in southern Iraq and the Kurds in northern Iraq.]

THAT was when U.S. troops ended up being stationed on sacred Saudi soil!

When Junior got elected, I told my mom that as soon as his poll numbers got low enough, we were going back to Iraq. No surprise there, lots of people saw it coming. 9/11 happened , but oops it was Saudi nationals mostly, not Iraqis, and worse they were based in Afghanistan, which didn’t have any way of connecting useful minerals to international shipping. Just—heh heh—poppies and pissed off guerrillas we’d trained up a decade earlier and then discarded.

And, predictably, when Bush 2’s post 9/11 popularity boost had subsided, they started beating the war drums for Iraq, because how do they win in Afghanistan?

Bush's "post 9/11 popularity boost" didn't subside until WELL AFTER the Iraq war debacle proved just how incompetent the neo-CONS actually were. Bush/Cheney, Rumsfeld et al were beating the the Iraq War Drums ON 9/11. Rumsfeld didn't even want to do anything with Afghanistan AT ALL - "no good targets to bomb"

... this despite the "Bush" administration was discussing a war with Afghanistan on 9/10 over the Taliban government's refusal to grant a Unical Consortium a pipeline concession across eastern Afghanistan - "either you accept our offer of a carpet of gold, or we bury you under a carpet of bombs" - a pipeline whose primary benificiary would have been Enron corporation, who needed a cheap source of fuel to bail out their Dabhol power project misadventure.

And, like the fascists they are (ish for Liz Cheney), they got us into not one but two losing wars. If they hadn’t been oil men and had turned the big money onto electricity back in the 90s, we’d be minus a generation of scarred veterans and minus the oil-soaked tinderbox that is the Arab-Persian Gulf.

Don't forget Cheney's Energy Task Force, deregulation and Enron's rolling blackouts in California.

Oh well.

Rocketpjs @ 1078:

I know that. You know that. Anyone who has been living outside a cave for the last 23 years knows that. Those of us who were not intelligence professionals did not know anything on Sept. 12, 2001. I just knew that someone had done it, and that my professor at the time was NOT a national security professional and NOT knowing much more than me.

Well, FWIW - I remember U.S. radio network NPR (National Public Radio) was reporting the al Qaeda connection by the evening of 9/11 ... although with a bit of a slant towards the idea the Taliban & Afghanistan were somehow responsible for bin Laden's actions.

I also knew that Hussein was not suicidal, which is what a leader would have to be to attack the US on US soil. So the notion that Iraq had orchestrated a terrorist attack like that was absurd.

A point OFTEN overlooked. Also, by that point Hussein was a "toothless tiger"; running mostly on bluster to deter Iran from taking revenge.

This is all a deep searing scar in my psyche.

1096:

"Long wanted", as in, among the found documents of the vile "Project for a New American Century", is a letter they sent to then-President Clinton in '98, urging him to invade Iraq. Signed by, among others, Rummy, Kondi, and Darth Cheney.

1097:

You don't occasionally buy a snack, or leave a tip on a table (so that the server gets it)?

Rarely. So much of modern life (in the bits of the US and elsewhere) that I and many others interact with are all set up to take credit cards. The servers at even lower end restaurants expect you to pay with a CC and have a mobile terminal you wave your card at or your phone or watch.

Food trucks ditto.

I DO carry cash. A few bills each in smaller denominations, a few $100s when traveling. But rarely use them. But at times do use them for a tip. But rarely.

Speaking to an earlier comment, every vendor I've seen at the local farmer's markets and pop up markets have portable CC machines or phones with widgets attached. Even the car wash folks behind the local Exxon.

And it has been a long time since a candy bar was less than a $1.

1098:

Not exactly. My late wife, before we met, had bought an immobile home, then wound up buying two acres and having it moved a good distance (probably a couple hours drive) to the property.

1099:

JohnS @ 1095:

In case it's not obvious, I have an even lower opinion of George HW Bush than I do of Cheatolini iL Douchebag.

1100:

Sadly I was volunteered to trial Win 11 at work (because Win 10 will be a security risk before long). They asked this week if they could set me up, and I told them to wait until after year end (31 March). At least I will get more info before I have to decide if I am moving to Mac for my personal stuff (mainly photo editing and general web things).

1101:

"I also knew that Hussein was not suicidal, which is what a leader would have to be to attack the US on US soil. So the notion that Iraq had orchestrated a terrorist attack like that was absurd.

A point OFTEN overlooked. Also, by that point Hussein was a "toothless tiger"; running mostly on bluster to deter Iran from taking revenge.

This is all a deep searing scar in my psyche."

I'm sorry. We - my late ex and I - were out in the streets in FL against going in. But... I remember an evening in '79, a friend and I sharing a bottle of wine, looking at each other at one point, and both wishing there had been something, anything either of us could hav done to end the war in 'Nam sooner. And then it was 2002, and 2003, and there the US was again...

I want W, Darth, Condi and the rest in Den Hague for war crimes.

1102:

The worst part about the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraw was that the present outcome was wholly predictable. Pretty much everything that happened after and as a result of 911 was predictable.

The US would freak right out and immediately bomb someone, somewhere. The US would embark on a couple of huge, ill advised and illegal/borderline illegal wars. Those wars would showcase the US ability to crush a conventional enemy while also showcasing its utter inability to defeat an insurgency.

Millions would die.

Eventually the US would get tired of killing and dying and withdraw. Net effective change in Afghanistan zero, in Iraq a change in who the winners and losers are in the new regime, but effectively zero.

The worst part is that the US behaved more or less EXACTLY how Bin Laden wanted it to behave. If it had been treated as a criminal matter and the perpetrators hunted down and charged, it would have been a global strategic nothingburger. As it was, he caused the US to massively overreact, helping the cause of extremists everywhere.

1103:

»I also knew that Hussein was not suicidal«

There is an interesting wrinkle to this entire story.

It is, and was, a proven fact that Iraq had a clandestine nuclear weapons program.

They got told, in various convincing ways, to stop it, and as far as any credible inspector has been able to find out, they actually did abort the program.

For instance much later their calutron magnets were found wrecked and buried.

But Iraq failed to document the dismantling of the program, and they could not account for what had been in the program to begin with, in particular what their inventory of fissile material were, and where it had gone.

I think it was totally fair that many politicians remained unconvinced that the program was a non-concern.

Some well-informed people speculate, that the program leadership may have been "reporting optimistically" about their progress, and therefore not be very keen to produce or make such documentation available.

There are some unresolved questions about how much fissile material Iraq could have had, and what happened to it, but rumors are that officials from USA have told IAEA to "not worry about it".

1104:

»The US would freak right out …«

And they still do, about all the wrong things...

Both 9/11 and in particular "Havanna Syndrome" and most recently "The Chinese Spy Baloon" all made me think of Poul Anderson's "Sam Hall" and the almost guaranteed eventual auto-immune (over)reaction in self-defense mechanisms (See also: "Gödel, Escher, Bach" about record players)

USA have an /enormous/ immune-system and for much of the post-wall period, not much to show for it, so an automatic overreaction was virtually guaranteed, in particular when that very expensive system was found to have failed utterly to detect a major terror plot.

(The intelligent reaction had been to tell the public to "Keep Calm & Carry On", send seal team 6 to pick up Osama Bin Laden, arrest him, and put him on trial in New York City, and the bill for WTC to Saudi Arabia.)

1105:

you-all heard about that AT&T whooopsie recently?

my data is via Spectrum

my mobile is via AT&T

they both crashed in the middle of the night... my insomnia makes sleeping thru the night near-impossible so I was wide-wide-awake...first Spectrum failed and when I tried calling in to report that the call dropped after about a minute...

as of yesterday, AT&T has still not been specific about the failure point nor any denial it was terrorism... just... shrugs and silence

problem is (here in USA) EVERYTHING goes thru the same wires 'n data centers... if there is a point-of-failure that is an epic fail then big chunks of multiple networks get knocked down

best thing you can do is memorize the locations of nearest 24H/7D retail outlet and hospital and police station... keep enough cash (in NYC = $100) in small bills (USD$5 suggested) on hand for a week's basic, room temperature groceries as well as water for three days

I've a buddy who called a few months ago to confirm his hand notated maps of those locations were critical during a 'minor' blackout... his family had enough water to share with neighbors unprepared

price gouging by retailers for bottled water still being investigated

1106:

https://youtu.be/jCC8fPQOaxU

John Oliver snarking on mobile homes... with bitter details

1107:

Freehold ownership can also come with conditions. My granny's deeds expressly prohibited her from operating either a brothel or a tripe shop out of the property. (I don't think she actually had any designs in that area, so the disappointment was not too great.)

1108:

Here in the UK, servers get paid by the restaurant/cafe. Tips are optional.

1109:

Of course, AT&T isn't the old AT&T, it was bought by SBC in '08... and having lived in Texas, let me assure you that people hated SBC more than they hated Ma Bell years before.

1110:

As it was, he caused the US to massively overreact, helping the cause of extremists everywhere.

FSVO "extremists" that also includes the "defense" industries and Halliburton etc, to the tune of a few trillion dollars in extra sales over two decades.

1111:

My Mum's house had a similar covenant - basically, the owner was prohibited from keeping livestock - although our neighbours when we moved in had a ramshackle chicken shed dating from WWII. I suspect it was imposed by the original landowner (Lord Wimborne) when he sold the land for development in the 1920s.

Mind you, by the time we moved in, covenants weren't worth the paper they were written on.

1112:

enshittification predated the web -- consider air travel Bbetween secondary cities in US in any year post-WW2 -- but the migration onto 'digital everything' has made it so much smoother a slippery slope

no simple cure but as long term repair undoing monopolies and (mega)funding regulatory overwatch...

...and in twenty years maybe it will be less miserable to be on an airplane and more affordable to be gravely ill

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enshittification

1113:

»FSVO "extremists" that also includes the "defense" industries and Halliburton etc, to the tune of a few trillion dollars in extra sales over two decades.«

And to complicate things: If they had not, USA would probably be hip-deep in economic crisis with record unemployment around 2010 (ie: Much worse than they actually were.)

USA's national economy only works /at all/ because the federal government pumps 20-ish percent of the tax-money through the "defense industry", most of which goes to create what goes for "good jobs" in USA.

Reagan nearly crashed USA's economy by cashing in on the "cold war dividend" when he pulled a million soldiers out of Europa and sent them and the tens of millions how lived on supporting them into unemployment.

1114:

I just saw news about the terrorist attack in Moscow. Am I wrong to suspect it's a "False Flag" event?

... until proven otherwise?

1115:

Am I wrong to suspect it's a "False Flag" event?

We'll have to see how the Kremlin plays out the event. Right now, it could be any of a number of things.

1116:

... aaannnd

Georgia RepubliQan Repressive MTG has filed a motion to vacate aimed at forcing out House Speaker Mike Johnson because he apparently worked with the Democrats to avoid another government shutdown ("kicking the can down the road" for another six months)

1117:

Rocketpjs @ 1102:

The worst part is that the US behaved more or less EXACTLY how Bin Laden wanted it to behave. If it had been treated as a criminal matter and the perpetrators hunted down and charged, it would have been a global strategic nothingburger. As it was, he caused the US to massively overreact, helping the cause of extremists everywhere.

Bin Laden didn't cause the U.S. to do anything. He DID however provide Bush/Cheney with the excuse they wanted so they could do what they were already "planning" to do (for some absurdly incompetent values of "planning").

1118:

Here in the UK, servers get paid by the restaurant/cafe. Tips are optional.

His comment was on how some restaurant owners in the US don't pay all or some of the tips collected back to the servers. It is a problem. Some believe it is common to the extent that it is almost universal. Some not feel so much. I've not had such workers talk about it in my personal experience. But it does pop up in the news at times and I do believe it is an issue to some degree. It is one of those things where it id hard to get a handle on actual numbers. And seems to vary by where in the country or which city you're in.

1119:

overheard waiting in line to buy a ticket in the next near-billion dollar lottery draw, two women in mid-twenties and mildly anorexic and scrolling through texting to share friend circle gossip:

"You’ve got to recognize it when a day is a total waste of makeup. And that guy you were with on our double-date last night? He's the reason my whole day was a waste, not just your date."

{ sound of eyeballs rolling of those dozen -plus people close enough to inadvertent hear that }

1120:

whitroth
INTERESTING - I also have personal domain ("@ratatosk.uk") .. so I could put a dropbox onto that & use it?

JohnS
"Mr. George Bush of the CIA" reporting from Dallas on November 23, 1963 ... the Saturday immediately following Kennedy's murder?

David L
"Carrying cash ... my local (very good) Chish-&-fip shop ONLY takes cash, as does my favourite sausage-&-venison butcher in Waltham Abbey. Um.

RocketJPS
THEN: "The worst part is that the US behaved more or less EXACTLY how Bin Laden wanted it to behave."
NOW: "The worst part is that Israel behaved more or less EXACTLY how Hamas wanted it to behave.
Depressing, isn't it?

PHK
Keep Calm & Carry on* - as we did after 7/7/2005, you mean?
Even I was impressed & surprised as to how we closed ranks at that point.

Update: "islaamic State" ( = Da'esh? ) appear to be claiming responsibility for the Moscow attack ???

1121:

When I buy a snack I use contactless or Apple Pay. Only a few old people, children and Luddites use cash. I only have cash in my wallet because the local chip shop is cash only. If I buy a chocolate bar from the local newsagent I use contactless. In restaurants I use Apple Pay or an old fashioned debit card. There’s always an option for tips on the card reader. I don’t know about all UK restaurants but all those my mother worked in had a kitty with shares for all staff not just serving staff. As far as I remember I’ve only used one cheque this century for a lawyer/conveyancer who insisted on it.

1122:

I would categorize them as opportunists.

1123:

If FIL wins in 2024 JK might not have much choice in the matter... but I agree that the smart money (smart everything) is avoiding Trump like the plague.

1124:

Re:Bush 2 and Iraq. Congress gaveShrub the military resolution in October 2002. He launched the war on3/20/03. Now look at his popularity https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/george-w-bush-public-approval

There are two big bounces: 10/01 and 3/03. I stand by what I said originally.

As for Saddam, I think we forget that he was, in fact, a murderous tyrant before, during, and after Desert Storm, with close to half a million Kurds and Marsh Arabs, killed, imprisoned, displaced, or exiled. ( https://euaa.europa.eu/country-guidance-iraq-2021/crimes-committed-during-regime-saddam-hussein ). He wasn’t toothless, he just couldn’t fight Iran. The threat was always that, without an American military presence, he’d rearm and start exporting violence.

As for the Kuwaitis side-drilling. Yup. Did the Americans help them not punish them, fuck up..? Bush I’s national security advisor Brent Scowcroft had ties to the company that built the side drilling rigs and sold them to the Kuwaitis, but no serious investigation of the matter seems to have concluded that Scowcroft engineered the start of the war. Still, rumors swirl around the whole mess. You can blame Scowcroft, or Thatcher. I still blame Bush for it.

1125:

Why can't I just walk into the train station whenever it's convenient to me and check the departures board for the next train going to a different city?

Depends where you live and where you're going.

In "Sydney" our metro trains cover an area larger than The Netherlands, I can go from south of Woolongong to north of Newcastle or most of the way to Canberra on a metro train. Some of those run two hourly, though. But for Lakemba to Gosford or something you can just wander in and the app will tell you which trains to get on. Dungog to Bombaderry or something si going to take most of the day and you will want to look at the timetable pretty carefully because being 10 minutes late for the train might add four hours to a 6 hour journey time, or worst case leave you sitting in Newcastle through the 11pm to 5am shutdown.

Normally you'll only see the "Sydney" bit of the map because the full map is a bit large:

https://www.mapaplan.com/travel-map/sydney-australia-city-top-tourist-attractions-printable-street-plan/high-resolution/sydney-top-tourist-attractions-map-17-intercity-trains-network-south-coast-central-coast-newcastle-blue-mountains-southern-highlands-high-resolution.jpg

OTOH if I want to go to a nearby major city like Melbourne or Brisbane that's ~12 hours on a train, and they run twice a day most days, so you really, really want to book a ticket and turn up at the right time. Waiting for the next one will be very boring. So high speed trains for those trips would be very hand, even cutting the trip to 6 hours instead of 12 would be huge (leaping forward to 200kph trains and tracks!)

1126:

Actually it appears, or so you say to be a line from "A song" - which I've never seen or heard - & please ... don't bother.

Sigh. It's a line from the song "Every OS Sucks", which I referenced and posted links to in the comment I previously made to Mikko, which he was replying to.

https://genius.com/Three-dead-trolls-in-a-baggie-every-os-sucks-lyrics

"Every OS wastes your time/From the desktop to the lap/Everything since the abacus/Just a bunch of crap"

1127:

The servers at even lower end restaurants expect you to pay with a CC and have a mobile terminal you wave your card at or your phone or watch.

The problem with paying tips by credit card is that unscrupulous restaurant owners often claim them. If you leave cash you know the server gets it.

1128:

Yeah; I have vague memories of a sort of weary understanding that the USA was never going to come to terms with 9/11 without a war.

1129:

I still remember the giant blackout in northeastern North America, which covered a rough triangle Ontario - Ohio - New York state.

If you didn't have cash - or if your car was about to run out of gas - you were out of luck.

Does it pay to have cash on hand for a once-in-a-generation problem? It's certainly easier to hope that tomorrow is going to be more or less like today.

1130:

https://youtu.be/8RTIJroRhh4?t=640

I promise if you watch till the end of the "Crab Jesus" shtick you'll thank me

an unintentional laff riot

1131:

there's been a lot of 'minor' whoooooopies

'minor' blackouts... 'minor' service outages of credit card readers... 'minor' cyber attacks on hospitals, schools, stores, governmental agencies, et al

if you can safely skip a couple of meals and have enough warm clothing to get thru a winter night or two and enough water in summer...

...yeah sure be an optimist

1132:

OK ...
Apart from being utterly totally steaming murderously bonkers ( religion does that to your brain ) what is behind Da'esh's attack in Moscow?
Even by their standards it seems counterproductive - though it looks as though Putin is trying to claim that Ukraine is somehow involved - though I don't think that will wash?

Howard NYC
Thanks for the reminder.
I must remember to get a (couple of?) bigger battery back-ups for the phones, if nothing else.
And to up my permanent cash-carry from about £15 to £50/60.
Power supplies in UK cities are much more reliable, but we too, have gone or are going over to VOIP, with the possible consequent loss of anything remotely like emergency cover.

1133:

Really? You don't occasionally buy a snack, or leave a tip on a table (so that the server gets it)?

Yes, I buy snacks. With credit cards using contactless.

I patronise restaurants which I know give the tips to the waiters/waitresses or who have a published policy about tip sharing that I'm content with.

Banks charge small businesses something like 8% for depositing cash. The credit card companies are more like 2% or 3%.

1134:

»what is behind Da'esh's attack in Moscow? «

Russian mercenaries in the middle east ?

1135:

JohnS @ 1003: But it appears to me, despite how everything in the U.K. & E.U. has gone downhill since Thatcher, your cities, towns & villages are still more pedestrian friendly than we have here in the U.S.

This is a legacy of successful town planning back in the 60s and 70s. Town planning got a bad rap in the late 70s and 80s thanks to blocks of flats that were supposed to replace the horrible slums but then became vertical slums in turn. But the planners also laid out the basic British town, and they got this so right that these days people don't even realise it was done by town planners.

Take a look at Bedford for example. First thing you notice is the bypass, consisting of The Great Ouse Way, The Branston Way and Bedford Southern Bypass. All the through traffic can take the bypass at 50 or 70 MPH rather than threading its way through the town centre. The only traffic which goes inside the bypass is doing so because Bedford is the destination.

Zooming in to the town centre you can see a network of inner distribution roads: main roads with residential roads leading off them. If you zoom in further to the town centre you see a pedestrian shopping area (Midland Road, Silver Street, Allhallows and Harpur Street) which is enclosed by a loop of inner distribution roads. Serviced by this loop of inner distribution roads are the Bus Station and several short-stay car parks. Outside of the pure pedestrian zone are more streets for shops. Although cars are allowed in these they are distinctly second-class citizens: speed limits are low, many streets are one-way, and through-traffic is discouraged.

(The links above are for Open Street Map, but if you take a look on Google Street View you can get a better idea of how all this works in practice).

The pedestrian area also has a Shopping Centre (i.e. a "Mall" for USians). This has its own car park, and will have a few big units for "anchor" chain stores and a few dozen smaller units. Some shopping centres also have an upper deck for very small shops run by individual entrepreneurs or enthusiasts, doing stuff like hand-craft jewellery, second hand records and Dungeons & Dragons.

The alternative to all of this is the stroad, a hybrid of a street (a complex environment where city life happens) and a road (a high-speed connection from A to B). Shopping on a stroad is unpleasant and dangerous because of all the traffic trying to get past as fast as possible, while from the through-traffic point of view its an obstacle that slows things down. UK towns used to have stroads, but as car ownership became increasingly common old town centres became increasingly impassable. Luckily the people in charge managed to get the right things done. I don't think you could get something like that through these days.

1136:

Mikko: Even I'm not paranoid enough to build my own internet shared disk (and that would be kind of paranoia-inducing, considering that having a file server accessible from the public internet is kind of a nice target for all kinds of malcontents...). So I'd be happy to hear suitable options.

If you are sufficiently hard-core techie, the answer is a house VPN with your file server inside it. I'd recommend WireGuard. You can get all your devices on the VPN and then access your house server from anywhere. VPN security is straightforward because its what the VPN does by design. You can run it on a Raspberry Pi or on an OpenWRT router.

The only problem with this is that you need a routable IPv4 address, which not all ISPs provide these days. Mine charges a stiff monthly fee for one, so one of my current projects is to set up an IPv4 over IPv6 tunnel from a computer in the cloud, which actually works out much cheaper. Or it will when I can get it to work...

1137:

Additional to self @ 1132
Anyone in the UK got any recommendations as to where to start? How much back-up "capacity" do I need & price range &/or decent manufacturer? There's a huge variety out there & I don't doubt that some are good & some are shit ....

1138:

what is behind Da'esh's attack in Moscow?

Russia is heavily involved in the Middle East and Africa, both officially with troops and weapons and unofficially through the Wagner Group.

1139:

"Power supplies in UK cities are much more reliable, but we too, have gone or are going over to VOIP, with the possible consequent loss of anything remotely like emergency cover. "

I'm slightly surprised that so many people seem to assume that, because there are batteries at the exchange, the existing POTS infrastructure will continue to work during a major outage, when it doesn't work properly under normal conditions.

I was glad to switch from copper to FTTP and VOIP at the earliest opportunity, because the copper infrastructure round here is ~60 years old, and my landline phone became unusable every time there was heavy rain. Yes, there will be a problem if an emergency coincides with a power outage, but on the bright side I still have diversity - mobile phone and VOIP, from different providers, not sharing the last mile - so I can still make my mobile ring when I've forgotten where I left it :-)

1140:

I still remember the giant blackout in northeastern North America, which covered a rough triangle Ontario - Ohio - New York state.

If you didn't have cash - or if your car was about to run out of gas - you were out of luck.

A US perspective. Well yes. But no. But cash is hard to spend for gas if the power is out. As the pumps are all electrical.

Now you MIGHT find a place run by a sole proprietor who will let you use a hand pump to extract a bit from the underground tanks but those are going to be few and far between.

If the power is out most places will just not function at any level. Cash over credit cards helps just a small bit. If the power is out for a day or so stores MIGHT sell you the refrigerated stuff but it might require a local manager to over ride corporate policies. And maybe some health codes.

1141:

Anyone in the UK got any recommendations as to where to start? How much back-up "capacity" do I need & price range &/or decent manufacturer?

US here. I THINK you're asking about getting power from battery packs.

It all comes down to how much and how long.

You can get decent cell phone sized battery packs for under $30. Just keep them on a charger that doesn't draw much power when the batteries are full and use them as needed.

$100 or less gets you something like this for longer use and more output choices. https://www.amazon.com/65Watts-Portable-Charger-Battery-Notebooks/dp/B07P87JTVT?th=1

Then I have one of these. It uses my Ryobi batteries which I use for outdoor tools and keeps them charged. But if needed can run a fridge for hours. My daughter has one for their house also as they have a sump pump to keep water from under the house. https://www.ryobitools.com/products/details/46396023759

They also make single battery inverters and ones for their 18V batteries.

It all comes down to what are your goals?

1142:

David L: But cash is hard to spend for gas if the power is out. As the pumps are all electrical.

Perhaps its time for my regular repost of a link to James Burke's "Connections". Episode 1 starts with exactly this, along with the question "what if the power doesn't come back this time?".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XetplHcM7aQ&list=PLf02uWXhaGRng_YzH-Ser_VEV4lGSLX_1

Its particularly spooky because it was filmed at the World Trade Centre. Listen out for the guest appearance of "911".

I first saw this as a teenager, and it had a huge impact on me. I'd always taken our technological world for granted (who doesn't?), but this encouraged me to look beneath the surface and think about infrastructure, systems and sustainability.

1143:

Meanwhile, in the darker ecesses of a dictator's brain ... it appears, from multiple sources, that, in spite of Da'Esh openly claiming responsibility, Putin is trying to balme Ukraine for the attack.
This really, really does not look good, does it?

David L
Translating those power / Wattage (etc) bands across to UK available kit gives me a good starting place - thanks .. I'll have a look.

1144:

that, in spite of Da'Esh openly claiming responsibility, Putin is trying to balme Ukraine for the attack.

SOP. When something bad happens pin it on the current "bad" guy/people. Helps keep the internal dissent down and gives a reason for the populace to accept more repressions.

1145:

The problem with paying tips by credit card is that unscrupulous restaurant owners often claim them. If you leave cash you know the server gets it.

Not only that, the server can leave it out of their income declaration. Well, legally they are supposed to declare it, but I do not mind giving them an option.

All this is why I always tip in cash.

1146:

Connections

I watched it also. (YOU WERE ONLY A TEENAGER. I'm feeling older than a few minutes ago.)

I'd always taken our technological world for granted (who doesn't?), but this encouraged me to look beneath the surface and think about infrastructure, systems and sustainability.

I got it from my father. He was born in 1925 on a moderately sized farm in far western KY. So he grew up in the depression in the US. So even though they were never hungry, he was raised with a "how to make do" mindset. But they didn't have their own generator and the well was electrically powered. It pumped into a not all that large (<100 gallons?) tank. But they had a cistern and ponds for the animals and I guess could boil water if needed. Heat in their smallish house was via a single pot bellied stove plus kitchen heat. But he talked of tossing the cats under the blankets an hour before bed time to get the bed warm. But also a small butcher / slaughter house so they had refrigeration. Petrol was stored in tanks on small towers so that you could use gravity to transfer to cars and tractors and such.

Anyway, he also built / remodeled houses as a second source of income my entire time growing up. 50s into the 70s. I learned a lot about how to do what was needed and only call in a pro if time was short or things just go too complicated. We did our own auto repair work most of the time, including minor engine over hauls. We even swapped a V6 out for a V8 on a small pickup.

Anyway, my point is most people have no idea how interconnected things are. In the lead up to Y2K someone in an elected office was caught on camera saying, well if the phones go down we can just use the internet and send emails.

1147:

So he grew up in the depression in the US.

A question. I'm fairly familiar with the effect and life during the 30s in the US. Life sucked for most people. And sucked hard for a non trivial number. And created havoc with the "social order". So good havoc. And a lot of bad havoc.

What was it like in Europe in the 1930s? I know a lot about Germany. A bit about France in that it was the government of the week at times as if flipped between fascists and communists. But the UK I don't really know.

1148:

what is behind Da'esh's attack in Moscow?

Well, Russia’s still fighting in the war in Syria, where it seems to have gone for a strategy of attrition, after eight years of engagement, using tactics that they’re also using in Ukraine: (12/23: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/03/russia-syria-war-turkey-00128920 )

The civilian situation there is apparently dire, and the politics are completely dysfunctional (2 days ago: https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15635.doc.htm )

I’d forgotten about Syria too, until I saw ISIL was responsible for the Moscow attack. Much as I despise ISIL, I’d say that what they did in Moscow is no worse than what Russia has been doing to them.

Anyway, welcome to 21st century war: wars of attrition, no front lines, everything from the sea floor to cislunar space to your computer and brain is now a potential or actual battlefield.

1149:

I’d forgotten about Syria too, until I saw ISIL was responsible for the Moscow attack.

The US has at least one base there (without looking) or just over the border and regularly flies air patrols over the country. 1200 or more troops on the ground I think.

No I don't know their goal aside to maybe stave off anarchy or a Russian remote state. Or whatever.

1150:

The Hussein regime in Syria (essentially a tribal Shi'ite group) are a Russian client state these days, having lost about 70% of the country to insurgent Sunni tribal rebel groups. (Hint: Da'esh/IS.)

Russia supports them because Syria gives Russia a warm water port on the Mediterranean. Having Syria as a client state is very useful to Putin's long-term plans as it gives Russia a naval base within striking range of the Suez Canal and the Arabian Gulf (hint: oil politics from a previous century still shapes geopolitics today).

Remember, Putin is a Russian imperial revanchist. He wants to rebuild the empire. The Bosphorus was always a major western choke-hold over the Russian Black Sea fleet, and the Russian Baltic fleet was bottled up by the North Sea and the Iceland/UK gap. The Far East fleet (Vladivostok) was too far out of the way to be useful for sea control in the Med or North Atlantic, and in any case was needed as a counterweight to Japan and China. So Syria today is disproportionately important to Russian geopolitical eyes.

1151:

Why can't I just walk into the train station whenever it's convenient to me and check the departures board for the next train going to a different city?

Well, that's what we already have in Germany. Basically all train lines run on an hourly schedule. So, every hour at the exact same minute, there's the next train going to the same destination. (That's a rule for local und regional services; some long distance trains run only once every two or even once every four hours. This is going to be improved by the "Deutschlandtakt", but it seems that this is currently a little too ambitious for Deutsche Bahn.) And if you're not in an extremely remote area chances are that your station is serviced by more than one line, so that you have at least two, in bigger population centres even three or four connections per hour to the next hub. For instance, to traverse the Ruhr Area from west to east (Duisburg to Dortmund) there is one S-Bahn line (local train, many stops, travel time 63 minutes) departing every 20 minutes; three RE lines (regional trains, fewer stops, travel time about 38 minutes), each departing once an hour, and a bunch of IC or ICE lines (long distance trains with special fares, travel time around 35 minutes, with combined departures two or three times per hour. In total that makes for 8-9 connections per hour (during daytime on weekdays; nights and weekends have reduced frequencies). And each intermediate stop is at least serviced by the S-Bahn once every 20 minutes, some bigger stops by S-Bahn and regional trains, and the central intermediate stations (Essen and Bochum) by all of them.

It's actually a well thought-out system. And as long as you don't live at a place that is only serviced by one regional line you really don't need to consult the timetable before walking to the station.

Also, running long distance trains as a reliably hourly service isn't exactly a new idea. DB started it 1971 with the introduction of the Intercity service (at the time two-hourly). In 1979 the frequency was doubled to hourly services. Since then all train classes have been integrated into the hourly system.

1152:

{ USA CENTRIC } { YMMV ELSEWHERE }

regarding "your brain as battlefield"...

that subdivides:

social media, benign but wrong

social media, malice well polished

social media, clumsy propaganda

dating, apps versus F2F versus random versus too high expectations

sex, just so much going wrong inside heads

legal pharmaceuticals (Oxycotin was FDA approved, eh?)

illegal pharmaceuticals, moderate

illegal pharmaceuticals, severe (fentanyl being the current bogeyman with good reason for bad outcomes)

recovery from addiction

advertising, multitude of negative intents too many to list

credit cards

diet fads

clothing trends

“this is your brain, this is your brain as a battlefield, why are you not asking questions?”

{ cannot recall how to bullet a list in HTML }

1153:

Russia doesn't have a blue-water surface navy any more so "warm water ports" is the sort of thing old buffers at the club mutter sagely over their brandy and cigars, pretending they understand modern political thinking and foreign policy.

The only real blue-water capability the Russians have left are their submarines plus their icebreakers and neither need "warm water ports". Even their brown-water coastal fleet is sadly decayed with a lot of old hulls remaining on the books but likely inoperable and not able to sail even if pushed (or towed). They still have Krivaks which were built in the 1970s as supposedly active fleet units, for example.

1154:

(West) Germany was expected to be a battlefield in the Cold War so a large mesh of interconnected rail lines was a military necessity. The fact that civilians were allowed to use the network was just a bonus with the added benefit of a continuous OPEX process to work out the scheduling and logistics kinks.

1155:

Robert Prior @ 1127:

"The servers at even lower end restaurants expect you to pay with a CC and have a mobile terminal you wave your card at or your phone or watch."

The problem with paying tips by credit card is that unscrupulous restaurant owners often claim them. If you leave cash you know the server gets it.

Unless you personally put it in their hand, you don't KNOW.

(Sad truths I learned while working as a cook in college)

1156:

Robert Prior @ 1138:

"what is behind Da'esh's attack in Moscow?"

Russia is heavily involved in the Middle East and Africa, both officially with troops and weapons and unofficially through the Wagner Group.

Russia has a large, largely suppressed, VERY ANGRY Muslim minority - they're maybe even a majority in the North Caucasus region.

I've seen a report that "more foreign fighters joined Islamic State from the former Soviet republics than any other region".

When ISIS/ISIL/Da'esh's "Caliphate" was defeated in Syria & Iraq, a lot of those foreign fighters apparently returned to Russia.

1157:

every military has the inevitable urge towards avoiding decommissioning 'stuff'

there's "hanger queens" in the air force; fighters, bombers, cargo haulers, etc which ought be busted up for scrap but are kept on the inventory to justify warm bodies and thus higher officer ranks with kickbacks by lower ranking personnel... as well assigning those impossible-to-fire who are utter wastage of skin and/or active danger to others over to 'maintaining' these "hanger queens"...

Saudi Arabia's AF being notorious for this... dozens of shiny, well polished aircraft which apparently never left their hangers due to missing bits 'n pieces... avionics, braking systems, engines, etc

oft times 4 supposed aircraft being 3 operational due to overdue replacements (another patch of ongoing corruption being components are ordered, paid for but never delivered) necessitating "cannibalization"...

taken to extremes? "hanger queens" end up as "hollow queens"

for navies, similar patterns with differing vocabularies: "harbor queens"

1158:

Richard H @ 1139:

I'm slightly surprised that so many people seem to assume that, because there are batteries at the exchange, the existing POTS infrastructure will continue to work during a major outage, when it doesn't work properly under normal conditions.

That was just my experience when I had a POTS telephone. Through several power outages (spread across many years) from hurricanes & ice storms - even storms that knocked over telephone & power poles and left lines laying in the streets - the POTS telephone just continued to function.

1159:

We still have a 'land line' for what I used to think were safety reasons, but nobody uses it except occasional scammers. I have recently realized that the monthly cost of maintaining said landline could be spent on acquiring a generator or some solar panels and a battery to keep the house working during a power outage. Now to convince the spouse...

1160:

Howard NYC @ 1152:

{ cannot recall how to bullet a list in HTML }

Find the comment from MSB @ 917:; highlight it and right click and click on View Selection Source

Copy the source to a text document in Notepad or whatever the equivalent is on Apple.

Save that as a PLAIN TEXT document & use that document as a template ... that's what I did to get ALL of the HTML widgets I use here.

Basically it's:

<ul>
<li>Some item in a list</li>
<li>Next item in a list</li>
</ul>

Gives you a bulleted list like this one:

  • Some item in a list
  • Next item in a list
1161:

The U.S. had intelligence that ISIS-K was planning an attack in Moscow and publicly shared that information with Russia's government on March 7:

U.S. Says ISIS Was Responsible for Deadly Moscow Concert Hall Attack

"After a period of relative quiet, the Islamic State has been trying to increase its external attacks, according to U.S. counterterrorism officials."

If you have trouble with the NY Times website, here's a web snapshot of the article via archive.today https://archive.is/OOwo9

1162:

But he talked of tossing the cats under the blankets an hour before bed time to get the bed warm

I am surprised the cats played along

1163:

a nerd's delight!

"WindRunner cargo bay volume 272,000 cubic feet; 12 times volume Boeing 747-400; 356 feet in length; wingspan 261 feet; dwarfs Antonov An-225; land on airstrips as short as 6,000 feet; needs only a simple packed-dirt or gravel runway; etc;"

market niche: deliver gigantic 300-foot-long blades directly to wind farms... rather than depend upon twisty roads occupied by drunks 'n texting fools (that observation is my snarky aside, not mentioned in article)

https://www.cnn.com/travel/windrunner-biggest-plane-in-the-world/index.html

1164:

(West) Germany was expected to be a battlefield in the Cold War so a large mesh of interconnected rail lines was a military necessity.

Of course rail networks are first and foremost a military infrastructure, but you've got the timeframe wrong. Much of Germany's tracks were built during the Empire (1871-1918) with the express purpose of bringing soldiers and supplies to the (expected or already existing) fronts in the west (France) and east (Russia).

Exhibit 1: The "Ludendorff-Brücke" (more commonly known as the "Bridge of Remagen"). Construction was started in 1916, but it wasn't finished until after the Great War. The bridge and its "sister bridges", the "Kronprinz-Wilhelm-Brücke" in Urmitz and the "Hindenburgbrücke" in Bingen were built to serve railway tracks leading through the valleys of the rivers Ahr, Mosel and Nahe, respectively, towards the Western Front. And they served the same purpose in WW2, in the course of which two of them were destroyed (and not rebuilt).

The same has been observed since 2022 for much of the Russian rail infrastructure. Russia still depends on trains for its war logistics.

This is perhaps a little unfamiliar to readers from the US. Although certainly in the 19th century the railway was instrumental for militarily conquering the American West, it has since ceased to function that way. At least since the 20th century the US does not expect to defend its borders against military aggression anymore, but fights its wars in countries far away from American soil. Therefore USians probably tend to think of wartime logistics in terms of ships and airplanes. But the central European nations have always planned their wartime logistics in terms of trains. This may be one reason for the decline of rail in the US. It is simply not needed as a military infrastructure, therefore it's less important than rail in continental Europe.

1165:

Russia’s still fighting in the war in Syria

And right across the Sahel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiD24uEvY1U "Why France & Russia are Secretly at War in Africa" by RealLifeLore

That video explains a whole lot of the history of "Greater France" and I've been yelled at by people who don't seem to post much here any more for claiming that France had colonies so let's just say that south of the Sahara used to have a French government but don't any more and some of those countries have less than fond memories of their time as French citizens.

But they do have a problem with Islamic extremists. So they need someone to supply weapons and training if not actual troops, and hiring Russian mercenaries is cheaper than bending the knee to France. Whether they're later able to thank the Russians and send them away is somewhat less of a concern than whether they're able to keep various Islamic groups from slaughtering their people now.

This also means that lots of Islamist groups with experience in the field of terrorist atrocities dislike Russia intensely (they're also good at being intense). But the Russians are also very experienced at keeping non-white subjects away from the motherland so the surprise is that Islamists got so far into Russia. OTOH not all Muslims are non-white, and not all Russians are white so it's not as simple as racism keeps you safe.

1166:

Therefore USians probably tend to think of wartime logistics in terms of ships and airplanes.

You may be right about most Americans, but all the big military bases around me in San Diego are on tracks or have big rail spurs or both. It would be impossible to move tanks or artillery to ships or strategic airlift without the rail links. This was also true for the Midwestern military bases I saw or worked on.

I’d also point out that the big rail war in the US was the Civil War in the 1860s. For people watching American media, Indians and bandits attacking trains may be more familiar images, but they were smaller issues that came later in the century

1167:

I am surprised the cats played along

Hard to say. Sol y Luna like to play under the dried laundry in the morning, but at night sleep on top of the bed until it gets cooler at dawn. Then they burrow under the covers and snuggle.

1168:

The Hussein regime in Syria (essentially a tribal Shi'ite group) are a Russian client state these days, having lost about 70% of the country to insurgent Sunni tribal rebel groups. (Hint: Da'esh/IS.)

Perhaps that’s Saturday morning speaking? I think you meant the Assad regime. Would I call the Alawites a tribe? Hmm. Divergent Shia group, certainly. The Al-Assads? Wikipedia says they’re part of the Kalbiyya tribe.

I’m by no means an expert on any of this. I’m only interested because I figure that the Holy Land is what California will look like in a few thousand years, provided that we remain part of larger polities the entire time. Not simple, but rather mauled by outside forces on a regular basis.

1169:

The Russians inherited specialised military railway engineering brigades from their Soviet predecessors to repair railway infrastructure and operate trains for moving troops and materiel around. When the Kherson bridge to Crimea was blown up many folks in the West thought that it was going to be out of action for months if not permanently. Instead the Russians had limited train traffic operating through the damaged section within hours and the whole thing was up and running like new within a couple of weeks. If it had been on land it would have only taken a couple of days to fix up good as new.

It's been said that railway schedules were the reason for WW1; railways were essential to mobilisation and all the major Continental parties had ready-to-roll plans to start moving troops and guns to the front at short notice. This process had to start before the Other Side did the same so there was no time for the diplomats to talk the belligerents down from the ledge before the armies met each other in battle.

1170:

I am surprised the cats played along

While not "Little House on the Prairie" in the winter where I grew up it was common to be below 40F (4C) at night. And given a farm house built in the 10s or 20s (maybe earlier) I suspect that with a single heating stove for 4 rooms, it got chilly. My uncle and aunt talked of breaking up the frozen water in the wash pan before putting it on the newly fed stove in the mornings in their house. (He was 10 years older than my father.) Especially near walls and windows.

These were "house" cats. The 30 to 50 outdoor cats around the farm got to huddle up together in the barns and chicken coops. So I'm sure the house cats were just fine we being under the covers for the night.

1171:

When I heard the term 'hangar queen' used in actual conversation, it referred to aircraft that might have had high capability but required lots of maintenance (so it spent lots of time in the hangar). These conversations referred to US military aircraft in use or development at the time.

1172:

That was just my experience when I had a POTS telephone. Through several power outages (spread across many years) from hurricanes & ice storms - even storms that knocked over telephone & power poles and left lines laying in the streets - the POTS telephone just continued to function.

I haven't had hurricanes, but I've lived through the rest and my landline has been consistently much more reliable than the power grid. Indeed, the only time my landline failed was when a technician made a mistake installing new equipment.

1173:

Also 1171 - To me a hangar (or trailer) queen would be a vehicle that had low reliability and/or high maintenance requirements by the standards of its day.

1174:

In a flashback to the original post…

Apparently someone is trying to adapt the Glaswegian Willy Wonka fiasco into Willyfest-A Musical Parody. Because, um, I don’t know why, actually. Hail Eris or something similar

https://www.vulture.com/article/glasgow-willy-fest-musical-parody-cast-release-date-details.html

https://boingboing.net/2024/03/22/the-willy-wonka-chocolate-experience-fiasco-is-lurching-back-to-life-as-a-musical.html

1175:

I'm used to the recreational boating version, a "marina queen" which is a boat that if it leaves harbour at all goes to another marina or is just out for a day. Hence the related "sailing apartment" that is generally a catamaran that has (relatively) wide hulls and often two storeys of cabin before you get to the sails.

I can imagine that less wealthy owners of aircraft and motorboats might avoid using them because the running costs are high. Motorboats can give aircraft a run for their money in the money per hour of use front just because pushing water out of the way is so much harder than pushing air out of the way.

So maybe it comes down to the owners as well?

1176:

As I mentioned in another forum a week or two ago; they had “blade runner” right there, waiting eagerly for a chance. What a lack of imagination . :-(

1177:

That would be a "gin palace", because its primary use is holding drinks parties.

1178:

"Willyfest-A Musical Parody."

And have they thought about how some people might read that?

JHomes

1179:

"they had “blade runner” right there, waiting eagerly for a chance. What a lack of imagination . :-("

The name's already taken: see MTB Blade Runner Two.

1180:

Evidently the same people who held the preview of "Free Willy" with the predictable audience remark (in a fruity tone) of 'Ooh, yes please!'

1181:

multiple reasons for why a 'hangar queen' ends up in that status... aircraft, cars, trucks, computers, lawnmowers, etc

old but predictable

worn out but reliable

very pretty but mostly useless (impressive when there's a tour by high ranking but clueless non-experts)

never worked to spec but the boss wouldn't let it be junked (most likely he was paid off to approve the purchase)

hyperspecialized role (SR71 for surveillance; CNC for titanium machining; can openers;)

emotional attachment ("I wrote my first commercial app on that laptop in 1998")

backup ("spare tire in car trunk")

backup to the backup ("when all else fails" such as when newer 'n shiner $3M tanks get shit upon by $175K Javelins or embarrassing overhead drops of thermite into open hatches from DIY $3K drones)

source of fiddly bits to keep others of same model operational

nobody knows why but we're keeping it (until someone of seniormost ranking orders it junked)

====

sadly none of that is snark

1182:

"sex lure"... as in.... Porsche on the water

due to how many many women deem a boat of whatever operational status as signaling financial status there's likely lots 'n lots of boats whose rocking 'n rolling having little to do with the incoming tide

here in New York City, when the design of the World Financial Center was first announced, it was immediately withdrawn and two months later re-issued... apparently the entryway to the "yacht basin" was too narrow for certain boats as well as not able to hold enough boats at any one time

it seems the architect assumed smaller boats and also nobody would be mooring a $50M boat for more than a few hours

1183:

Assads, yes. (Brain fart over confusion with Jordan.)

1184:

What a lack of imagination . :-(

More likely "Blade Runner" is trademarked up the wazoo and the IP rights are owned by a very litigious media corporation. (Does some digging: Alcon Entertainment LLC owns the media franchise property, and they have close ties to a subsidiary of Warner Bros.) So you'd be trying to do a deal with Hollywood lawyers to license the use of a very famous name.

They'd probably charge the cargo capacity of one of those planes ... in gold bullion.

1185:

In the UK, cost of rail tickets is a problem. Walk-up tickets on regional trains doubled, roughly, in price over the pandemic and in my region are now at the level where driving + expensive parking is always cheaper, quicker and more convenient. Even when the destination is in outer London.

Tickets booked in advance are cheaper, sometimes half the price of walk-up fares, but they tie you to one particular train.

1186:

my national guard unit had a 'portable' TRS-80 in the supply room. As I was studying computer science at the time, I thought I'd ask if I could take it. Nope.

Some joker had sharpied "SFC [name]'s laptop" onto it, SFC [name] being well into retirement age.

1187:

HowardNYC
See also the "Offog" in one of Eric Frank Russel's stories.... "Allamagoosa" IIRC.

1188:

See also the "Offog" in one of Eric Frank Russel's stories.... "Allamagoosa" IIRC.

I know about "Offog", but which of Howard's comments were you addressing, and what does "Offog" have to do with it?

1189:

The "Blade Flyer" looks very much like a PowerPoint Pirate Production, similar to the occasional dirigible company glossy brochures, Magic Battery Tech scammers and thorium reactor "gimme money" folks.

Great, you have a plane that can fly the very long unwieldy blades of modern large wind turbines directly to the wind farm site. Yay! Of course first you have to get heavy machinery to the site to create the rough-field airstrip to receive these giant planes (assuming there's a place level enough and solid enough at the site to build such a runway). After that you have to figure out how to deliver the oversized transporters that will move the blades from the plane to their final erection site. There are also the giant cranes needed to erect the wind turbine towers and lift the generator nacelles before craning the blades into position. They too have to be delivered to the site.

After all of that is taken into consideration it's better to just build a decent road to the site and use that road to transport all of the equipment, concrete, fuel, personnel etc. needed for the project. Once you've built that sort of a road you can bring in the blades on wheeled transporters as they do today, no flying white elephants required.

1190:

Wait - we’re going to allow mere reality to interfere with a good pun? Shame, Sir - shame I say.

1191:

Given that they appropriated Blade Runner from William Burroughs, I'd be curious to see what kind of hold they actually have on the name.

1192:

And have they thought about how some people might read that?>/i>

Coastal North Carolina has a lot of things organized around Shag dancing.

"Annual Shag Festival award winners" and such.

Which can create some double takes for those from the UK.

1193:

This is one of those cases where a cargo airship would actually make sense ... but not enough sense to be worth building a big airship just for the one job.

1194:

Got to really disagree with that.

The problem is that many of the turbine blades are manufactured in China, so the proble now is getting them off the ship and to the site. A too-low freeway underpass anywhere on a route that might be thousands of kilometers long is sufficient to stop it. They’re huge, and they are curved in three dimensions.

Here’s one of many videos on the subject, from Scotland: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxvuMv2MED0

I think the Windrunner is a really interesting unitasker, if they can get t to fly. Basically, turbine blades are the hardest thing to move, because they’re bulky, not because they’re heavy. They’re actually really light. So basically, the aircraft to carry them are STOL aircraft with massively oversized cargo bays. If they can use rough runways, so much the better. Less damage that way, and this is something the airplane industry already builds other planes for.

The real question is whether a plane that bulky can take off and land in the windy places they put wind farms. We’ll just have to see.

Assuming the planes can fly, the real problem I see is replacing the turbine blades. It’s logistically easy to bulldoze a rough runway, salt in all the blades, and build the wind farm, quite possibly demolishing the runway while building the farm. It’s trickier to keep a dedicated rough runway accessible to the farm for replacing turbines, not least because wind farm creators aren’t always into long term planning, especially when it decreases profits.

1195:

When the US pulled out of Afghanistan a Trumpist meme was that we were abandoning one of the world's biggest sources of Lithium to the Chinese. Totally ignoring how hard it would be to build the infrastructure to mine the stuff in some of the roughest mountainous areas of the world. Then get it out to somewhere useful. Power stations, roads, housing, rail lines, etc...

And of course the local population would be glad for all of this.

Most rational estimates I saw involved 100s of billions of $. If not trillions.

I see it here with some of the folks on this getting upset when you tell them the societies of the US, UK, etc... will just not accept a factory complex employing 100K people. As a way to move some current tech production from China. It is not the factory. It is what has to happen around it to make it work.

1196:

Don’t know about lithium in Afghanistan, but I do know that mining for lithium in the US either means that the mines are going in over the San Andreas fault in its most dangerous spot (Salton Sea), or in various tribal sacred sites and rare plant sanctuaries around the West. And as usual, industrialized lithium recycling isn’t scaling quickly enough because of technical difficulties and ideological CRIS at various levels. Let’s also not forget the hell that is cobalt extraction in the eastern Congo (gee, what’s fueling all those wars?), over-exploitation of balsa for turbine blades, et merde.

I’m beginning to agree with the tribes: why trash their religion for the sake of our own? Our religion being industrial capitalism, of course. Our beliefs that money is what matters, growth is essential, and humans are separate from the biosphere are all quite analogous to what happens with cancer. This isn’t mystical: oncologists and cell biologists are finding that one of the essential things that causes cancers to form is cells losing communications with the rest of the body. They then start to behave as separate organisms, and grow at the expense of the rest of the body. Sometimes, cancers can be stopped simply by reestablishing communications. Often they are killed by immune systems, and analogies to human police and military systems are apt.

In the case of our global civilization, I think the cancer analogy scales quite well. Complaints about externalizing the damage from capitalist growth are real and relevant. And not new, either, Since the biosphere is tougher than anything we can do to it, including nuclear war, sooner or later our illusion of separation and eternal growth will shatter. The question is whether we capitalists try to kill every other human as our ideology goes down, or reestablish our connections with the biosphere and see how many humans survive the reconnection.

1197:

My point was about the hand waiving away of issues with "neat" ideas.

The Trumpist line about the Lithium in Afghanistan was we were abandoning it. As if it was sitting in warehouses at the airport waiting to be flown out.

Just like the people who say the US has plenty of Lithium. As if there are no technical (ecology counts) or social costs to getting to it.

Today's NYTimes has a long article on the brutality of sugar workers in a remote province in India. Apparently this area supplies a lot of the world's sugar. The article goes after Coke and Pepsi but I have to feel they are a few more multi-nationals involved. Adding sugar to diets isn't confined to US soft drinks.

But you'd think the earth was stopping it's spin when the price of soft drinks go up. At least in the US.

1198:

no... that was the result of an infamous typo

what's my rage-of-this-moment is situations where there's some item of inventory -- armed services mostly but megacorp too -- which is useless

could be rusted onto point of collapse or so obsolete verging on uselessness or lost in the mists of time who had authority over it

every megacorp I ever was stationed at in 1980s-1990s-2000s as a consultant had a store room filled with 'stuff' nobody dared throw out

became running joke at one site... real estate in Financial District not cheap... if we'd been allowed to empty out one particular junk-heaped storage area we could have freed up enough footage to save the company USD$60,000 annually... and likely squeeze a couple thousand bucks for all that metal

this, at a moment when we were 'hot bunking' our desks 'n computers (half of us 6AM to 1PM, the rest 1PM to 8PM) due to overcrowding so bad the fir department issued not just warnings but penalties of $100(?)/day with threat of arrest of department manager... 600 crammed onto a floor fire code limited to 450...

1199:

skulgun @ 1186:

my national guard unit had a 'portable' TRS-80 in the supply room. As I was studying computer science at the time, I thought I'd ask if I could take it. Nope.

Some joker had sharpied "SFC [name]'s laptop" onto it, SFC [name] being well into retirement age.

Anything in the supply room is probably "on the Property Book" and would have to be produced whenever there was an "maintenance inspection". If they couldn't produce it the current Unit Commander was going to have to pay for it.

I've just drawn a blank on what those inspections were called, but they occupied an entire drill weekend going over equipment & maintenance records (DD Form 314, DA Form 2404, the Property Book and all of the DA Form 2062s for that equipment ...)

Once an item is in the supply system it STAYS in the supply system until PROPERLY disposed of.

If the rest of y'all are interested you can google the form numbers/names. It's basically double-entry book keeping with the addition of all the serial numbers for thousands of items have to match or there has to be official documentation showing the change.

I once participated in a Change of Command inspection/audit and the outgoing commander was getting dinged for the cost of a UH-1 helicopter that had been scrapped years earlier. No one had filled out the proper forms to get it taken off the Property Book and he had signed for 18 helicopters without checking that the serial numbers matched.

He had 18 helicopters, but one of them wasn't on the Property Book, and one that was on the Property Book wasn't there ...

Took many, MANY "DA FORM 2823, SWORN STATEMENT"s from current and former Commanders, Officers & Supply Sergeants (many of them retired) to sort out.

1200:

'Spunky' is a common dog name here in Canada. This has caused more than a few UK persons to burst out laughing.

1201:

in theory... hundreds 'n hundreds of wind turbines are going to be installed at a location such as along a hilly ridge stretching fifty miles... three blades per turbine... the generator while not too fragile is rather valuable so why not deliver by air?

given there are plans (albeit mostly smoke at this moment) to install an additional 2 gigawatts of wind turbines per year (AKA: 2 GW above what's already being planned), oversized HTA airplane (or as you mentioned LTA airship) would be kept very, very busy... drop a load on site... return to factory pick up next load... lather-rinse-repeat 24X7 unless there's hostile weather

1202:

I had an interesting nightmare this morning. If one of you writers can use it as a plot point feel free.

I dreamed I was dealing with a mad-scientist who had come up with a clever machine that would create poison gas & pump it into pneumatic tires.

Pneumatic tires LEAK. That's why you have to check the pressure occasionally & pump them up again, which made it the "perfect plan" for slowly murdering everybody (everything?) on the planet.

1203:

Er Pepsico are putting Aspartame in all their soft drinks, even the ones sold as "normal" rather than "low calorie", "zero sugar" or whatever. My direct source for this being a microbiologist/pharmacologist who is allergic to aspartame.

1204:

I guess I'm safe for now. I don't like the taste of any Pepsi soft drink that I can think of.

And not many from Coca Cola.

I have a weird affinity to Diet Dr Pepper as the non diet version in the 70s was drinkable when hot. So I would put a couple of cans in the tractor tool box to drink while out mowing. Different metabolism and activity levels back then when a teen.

1205:

"Boeing: It's Not Our Fault Your Luggage Gets Misplaced"

{ let's find something positive to say, hmmmm? }

https://www.npr.org/2024/03/24/1240533968/how-boeings-troubles-could-impact-your-travel-plans

1206:

My point was about the hand waiving away of issues with "neat" ideas.

And it’s a good point too. Thanks for being patient with me

1207:

The objective is to build wind turbines, usually in widely-spaced groups. If you have to spend months or even years building an aircraft runway on rough terrain at great expense to cover a few dozen flights in total before you can complete the project then you're losing focus on the main reason for the construction effort to begin with.

The really big wind turbines, the 10MW-plus monsters with blade lengths over 80 metres are almost all built offshore or in a few cases on the coast and they don't present transport issues other than costing an arm and a leg as with any construction job at sea (good off-the-cuff estimate, ten times as much as similar operations on land). Inland wind turbines typically max out at 5MW with blade lengths of 60 metres or so. The Chinese are building very large wind turbines inland with blades as big as 130 metres but the intended projects are in relatively accessible in places like the Gobi Desert. The environment-destroying roads have to be built for all the other stuff needed for the green generating capacity, it's easier to just make such roads capable of handling the blade transporters.

Accepting some extra engineering weight in the blades and commensurate loss in efficiency they could be built in segments rather than being unitary parts and then assembled on site before being fitted to the rotors. Better minds than I have decided against this though and I bow to their superior knowledge.

1208:

https://youtu.be/8RTIJroRhh4?t=640

I promise if you watch till the end of the "Crab Jesus" shtick you'll thank me

an unintentional laff riot

The Crab Jesus bit was, okay, funny. I can't help feel slightly conflicted about it though; on the plus side religions worldwide are fundamental misunderstandings, so helping the public shed its reverence for cultural sacred cows has to be positive, right? I mean, psi, souls and sorcery are all fictional, or by now they'd have found the particles necessarily associated with transmission of such imaginary forces. Not like accelerator labs haven't looked and exhausted the spectrum of possibilities on that question.

So the whole secular state concept, along with free speech principles and basic science means it's perfectly okay to have Crab Jesus throw fish at the audience for laughs, turning an icon of idolatry into a figure of fun, a harmless clown pointing the way to personal freedom from ancient shibboleths. Cramped minds of the world unite, you have nothing to lose but your inhibitions, it's all good. I do understand why this is funny.

But is it really advisable under present circumstances, when the Paris office of a humor magazine got bombed recently for printing a Mohammed cartoon, do we want to invite the same kind of extremism from simple minds in our own country? Like it or not I guess we've already got an assault on women's reproductive freedom from the fundamentalist wing, so why tiptoe around walking on eggs like we're afraid to offend anybody, when they've already gone to full offensive position on the other side.

But when the next election hinges on a small number of uncommitted voters, maybe it would be smart to not gratuitously antagonize them by exposing just how weak their whole understanding of the world really is, maybe leave them a little branch of self respect to perch on so they don't just jump whole hog into political backwardness out of spite. Or am I being naive to assume there's anything more going on than just an outright money swindle on a global scale, i don't know, you tell me.

1209:

...only if it's a slow-slow-slow toxin

and incredibly potent...

never mind PPM, given how diffused it would be across a planetary surface... surface area of Earth is about 197 million square miles (510 million square kilometers)... PPB or PPT or PPX

PPM/PPB/PPT = parts per million billion trillion

but the notion has value as a red herring mode of attack...

given how it would mentioned breathlessly on Faux News by talking heads who'd gloss over the science in favor of the fearmongering

along with heightened levels of alert by DHS/FBI/TSA/etc to justify rounding up the usual suspects and judges issuing more 'n more no-knock warrants

much as stealing depleted uranium along with deliberately leaking about acquiring ultrafine grinding equipment and a couple tons of RDX... potentially making many, many 'dirty bombs'

but instead of doing anything with the RDX/DU it is all buried some place and there's constant false sightings and bogus bomb threats being called in by high school kids who are bored and/or looking to avoid an exam

(where did I read of that?)

1210:

Once an item is in the supply system it STAYS in the supply system until PROPERLY disposed of.

A friend of mine was the head of IT security for a second-tier government agency in the UK. (Infrastructure, so neglected/low priority.)

He got a puzzler about a decade ago. As you can imagine, he had to enforce standards for secure disposal of government IT assets -- including decommissioning laptops (and desktops) which might have Confidential or higher classified materials on them. Which was easy enough: extract hard drive and hit it with a hammer/feed it through an industrial shredder, file correct paperwork to certify destruction of hard disk/SSD, and the job's done, right?

This checklist worked fine until he stumbled over a very dusty lunchbox computer circa 1988 vintage that didn't have a hard disk at all.

(In the end he found a junk/failed drive in the trash, duct-taped it to the laptop, decommissioned that per regulation, then filed the paperwork. Result!)

1211:

not the religion aspect... that's just a bit of offhand Catholic bashing comedians are prone toward

it was the handing out of live fish to the audience and reactions shots... I kinda pee'd myself maybe a little from laughing

1212:

"Offog"

Never mind, JohnS #1199 explained it perfectly!

1213:

The one wind project I was consulting on got into trouble with the environmental groups when, after decades of us surveying the ridge routes and laying it out for them, once they got the permits, they decided to bulldoze the ridges into the canyons because that was easier. Doing that next to a world class birding area was stoopid, as they quickly found out. Wankers. This was highlands-scale rugged terrain where I got an up close and personal view of ospreys (the V-22 kind) practicing mountain flying before they went to Afghanistan.

Anyway, the point is about bulldozing and what wind industry wankers think is profitable. My guess is that they’d prefer a dirt runway, or at least something a C-130 could use. That doesn’t take much more than bog standard earth moving equipment, marginally cooperative terrain, and an aircraft that weighs about as much as a C-130, even if it’s considerably larger. I’d also guess that a company doing the turbine transport would have a lot of USAF veterans from the Mobility Command doing the contracts for runway construction, piloting, and the like. After all, doing stupid stuff like building a runway in hostile terrain is something they practice doing. You know, just in case.

1214:

another moment of an old fart having a get-off-my-lawn moment whilst referencing disaster readiness...

a fracking blizzard in late March!?

welcome to climate change...

"Minneapolis could see up to 12 inches in some areas by Tuesday, rivaling the 11 inches it received over the entirety of the winter season. ... More than 230,000 people across US north-east without electricity as experts predict storm will move into the midwest"

https://lite.cnn.com/2024/03/24/weather/winter-storm-midwest-plains-blizzard-snow/index.html

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/24/rain-snow-wind-weather-new-england-california-midwest

1215:

Anthropic climate change will mean more precipitation.

Infra-red solar energy trapped by increasing CO2 levels means warmer sea surface temperatures. That produces more water vapour in the atmosphere via evaporation, helped by the fact that warm air can carry more water vapour than cold air. That water vapour can end up over land and get deposited as the form of rain or snow depending on air temps at low and high altitudes. Hail needs convection cells to form but it is likely to become more common too.

It means that there will be fewer droughts caused by weather conditions in the future but mudslides are more likely to happen when flooding washes away hillsides.

1216:

Didn't you have Bob do something very similar in one of the Laundry series? :)

1217:

I learned about climate change from a prof who went on to be Obama’s science advisor 20 years later. Even in the 80s, he summed up the problem well:

It’s not that things get warmer, it’s that the extremes get more extreme.

So, big, slower storms, and hotter, longer droughts between them, with less year-to-year consistency Not good, but Pliocene normal. Maybe Miocene normal if we let Kocks and Co. run the US again

1218:

Q: what did Donald Trump do after he failed to grift users of GoFundMe...?

A: his newest brain fart is GoFraudMe

1219:

Twenty-ish years ago when I was doing a little work with Amory Lovins (www.rmi.org) he pointed out that a better name would be “global weirding”. Seems to me he was on point.

And as for giant blades, it’s obvious that they should make twin-rotor helicopters out of them and just fly them out to the locations. With some thought the structure of the fuselage could be (part of) the tower. Any Spark could make it work.

1220:

best visualization anyone ever gave me for global warming impat on climate

kid on a playground swing... as energy is bumped into his motion by daddy pushing from behind, wider arc covered at higher speeds... more possibilities for the moment of destabilization and him being thrown arse over crown

ditto, climate... sunlight in daytime and ground radiating heat during night is the energy 'pumping up'

1221:

Well, that's what we already have in Germany. Basically all train lines run on an hourly schedule.

I'm reminded of a Cold War joke about German transit...

"In West Germany, there is no problem. Trains are frequent and reliable, and you can easily go anywhere you want. In East Germany, again, there is no problem. You stay where you are put. Besides, there's no place to go."

1222:

I know this is going to sound dark but sometimes I'm glad I'm 67 years old and don't have 30 or 40 years left to see where humanity is headed. I remember living in a world before computers and for all the terrible things then, it was definitely not as insane as it is today.

1223:

a fracking blizzard in late March!? "Minneapolis could see up to 12 inches in some areas by Tuesday..."

Yep. Minneapolis weather. Every year.

1224:

And as for giant blades, it’s obvious that they should make twin-rotor helicopters out of them and just fly them out to the locations. With some thought the structure of the fuselage could be (part of) the tower. Any Spark could make it work.

Three blades per turbine. But every spark knows how to build a giant three bladed auto gyro, of course.

Personally I think a Wells original-style Martian tripod with each leg a blade or two, would work better. Have the turbine walk itself cross country. Maybe with a heat ray along for obstacle reduction?

Or, continuing the Martian theme, how about using six blades to make a rather large version of the Mars ingenuity helicopter. Easy peasy, carry two whole wind turbines at once. Just reverse the turbines to motors and power them by, um…using electromagnetic thingies to get charge from the 50 kw power lines they fiy along. And stuff. Mwa ha ha.

Science!

1225:

Probably better to have two rotors counterrotating to avoid the need to bolt a helicopter on sideways somewhere to use as a tail rotor. Although that helicopter might be handy for flying the bits out after you'd installed the windmills.

Actually, I wonder if keeping the whole nacelle in place might let you run that as a motor to reduce the need for an external power plant to be added. Managing the extension cord might be annoying though.

1226:

And as for giant blades, it’s obvious that they should make twin-rotor helicopters out of them and just fly them out to the locations. With some thought the structure of the fuselage could be (part of) the tower. Any Spark could make it work.

It's obviously convenient to bolt four windmill towers into a square and fly them out in a giant quadrotor drone. The necessary electrical power can be supplied by any system that isn't being guarded is handy.

Successful Sparks should have minions to distract them with something shiny before they get airborne with contraptions like this.

Agatha: "It's a falling machine. I'm so impressed."
Gil: "Weird. It worked perfectly on paper."

1227:

hmmmm....

heat ray, you say?

a delivery system that constructs a road for itself

never mind airborne travel, this thingie will fuss sand-rock-soil-human-bones into a road surface which as it rolls along will be flattened smooth(ish) before the melted slag can completely cool to ambient

the spinning provide forward thrust

1228:

Eureka, I have it! My greatest invention this evening: the mind blowing monopter.

Indeed, mad geniuses will have recognized the obvious similarities between a wind turbine blade and a maple fruit ( e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maple ). And we all know these fruits disperse by whirling one-bladed through the air.

The maniacal monopter simply attaches a wingless drone aircraft to the generator end f the turbine blade, with the fuel tanks at the mutual center of mass and suitable parasite flaps attached to the turbine blade as control surfaces. An airship hauls the monopter aloft, deploys it n the end and f a cable while it spins up, and lets it go when it is generating sufficient lift. The madly spinning drone then flies under remote piloting to the turbine site, where it autorotates t a soft landing in a suitably prepared landing zone. The drones are detachec from the turbine blade and returned to be fitted to another blade.

Sheer genius! Mwa ha ha. Ha ha, ha ha.

1229:

@ 1218 onwards
DJT must find bond money or face the start of asset seizures from this evening, yes?
Get out the popcorn!

Howard NYC
Ah, an upgraded version of the RN's "Dragon Fire" in other words?

1230:

Yes: where do you think I got the idea from?

1231:

I’d also point out that the big rail war in the US was the Civil War in the 1860s.

Yes, and also in extension to MSB@1164, comparisons between the US Civil War and the 1866 Austro-Prussian War are pertinent. But that's in the context of all the "firsts" in each for their respective locations in terms of industrial warfare. The role of railways in the latter though was decisive not just in terms of the obvious effect on supply lines, but in terms of rapid concentration. The movable Schwerpunkt as a replacement for the oblique order and all that.

1232:

"comparisons between the US Civil War and the 1866 Austro-Prussian War are pertinent."

Seems like comparisons between Lincoln and Napoleon are also pretty apt, since each made their environments safe for capitalist development by removing obstructive feudal aristocrats from power. Yet another example of the U.S. being a generation or so behind Europe, not ahead as frequently argued.

1233:

The maniacal monopter simply attaches a wingless drone aircraft to the generator end f the turbine blade, with the fuel tanks at the mutual center of mass and suitable parasite flaps attached to the turbine blade as control surfaces. An airship hauls the monopter aloft, deploys it n the end and f a cable while it spins up, and lets it go when it is generating sufficient lift.

Those seeds start spinning from the falling. Of course, to do that with this you would have to start much higher.

May I suggest using a SpaceX Heavy Booster? Loft the blade to the stratosphere, and you could probably deliver the blade anywhere within a 1000 miles or so (wild guess).

:)

1234:

Tickets booked in advance are cheaper, sometimes half the price of walk-up fares, but they tie you to one particular train.

I've seen advance tickets a lot cheaper than half the standard. Let's see, at first attempt: Euston to Manchester Piccadilly, 15:13 on 10th April: Anytime Single 184.70, Advance Single 41.50.

LNER are experimenting with a new "Advance 70" ticket where you book for a specific train but can change to any other train within 70 minutes free of charge. I think it's only available to/from London at present.

1235:

source of fiddly bits to keep others of same model operational

On the railways that's a "Christmas tree".

1236:

Up here (Canada) passenger rail is as expensive as flying, and slower than driving. And in most cities the train station is not conveniently located (Montreal and Toronto are exceptions) so getting to/from the train is in itself an adventure.

I live in bedroom community near Toronto (literally: town started growing because it was on the Radial Line so people could live in the country and work in the city). That line is long gone so getting to the downtown Toronto station takes me 1.5 hours of walking, busses, and subways. Train to Ottawa is 5+ hours (official 4.5 hours, but expect delays). Then another 1-2 hours getting from the Ottawa train station to where I want to be in the city. Driving I'm there in 4.5 hours, plus whatever time I need for breaks, plus possible traffic delays — so I budget 5-6 hours.

1237:

To make it clear, what I’m proposing with the monopter is a flying contraption with the lifting wing on one side of the center of mass, something like a wingless conventional plane on the the side of the center of mass, and the fuel tanks at the center of mass. The plane engine(s) send power fairly horizontally, causing the thing to spin, causing the wing on the other side to provide lift, wingnut fashion. Obviously the plane has to provide a vertical lift component too, but its primary function is to keep the thing spinning by counteracting drag.

This provides lift to keep it airborne. Presumably horizontal motion is provided by tipping it forward a bit, hence the need to attach devices to the blade to tip it. Steering is by precession, involves a handwaving appeal to AI, along with generous helpings of hope and prayer. I don’t think a human would survive onboard, but I could be wrong. It won’t spin that fast…

Do I think the damned thing should be built. As noted above, mwa ha ha ha science!

1238:

Another way to think of the monopter is as a giant, powered boomerang. One arm of the boomerang is a wind turbine blade, the other is an unmanned aircraft that provides the horizontal thrust necessary to keep it spinning and airborne. Yes, it’s a non-returning boomerang, thanks in advance for asking.

1239:

To make it clear, what I’m proposing with the monopter is a flying contraption

These discussions here about such, not just yours, brings to mind the first launch attempt of the big "thing" build from alien plans in the movie "Contact".

1240:

You're proposing a larger version of the Hughes XH-17, right?

I think you should think bigger! What 300 metre rotor blades call for is delivery by parachute drop from a Lockheed CL-1201.

1241:

US Railroad history.

Two things about US railroads which I think are a bit different than in Europe.

First is that the federal / union spending on railroads vastly increased the rail network of the (mostly eastern) US from 1860 to 1865. Ditto telegraph lines. The eastern US became much more connected because of that dust up.

The second issue is that people talk about US railroads as if they were organized to turn a profit transporting things. And to a large degree that was the PR/marketing. But at the end of the day people with deep pockets sunk vast amounts of money into them hoping to later extract a much larger vast amount. And transportation wasn't going to let them do that. So from the 1860s onward most railroad building in the western US was based on if a railroad laid the track they got 1/2 of the land out to 5 miles on each side of the track. (If federal land but most was.) So basically it was a real estate play. The train was just a way to make the real estate valuable.

Once that mostly played out in the first half of the 20th century the railroads got into needing subsidies to make their business plans work. And passengers never really turned a profit. Even in WWII when the US government bought mountains of tickets moving military around the country. And eventually the passenger house of cards fell apart and we got Amtrak and 1000 year bonds.

1242:

Re: 'It’s not that things get warmer, it’s that the extremes get more extreme.'

Including wind speeds - this is especially important for aircraft. There was a cross-continent flight a month or so ago whose speed exceeded Mach 1.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/how-virgin-atlantic-flight-went-faster-than-speed-of-sound/

Air speeds are getting faster but the research in this CC/GW related area is not as extensive.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01884-1

Higher air speeds, faster formation, size and traveling speed of tornadoes and ocean waves also means that wind farms need to be tested under a wider and more extreme range and rapid change of environmental conditions.

Blades from China ... was wondering whether the Arctic Sea will become a more frequently used route esp. between northern countries. Distance- and fuel-wise it makes sense esp. since the Arctic Cap is disappearing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_shipping_routes

More flight related stuff...

Temp extremes - thousands of flights in the US (esp O'Hare) were canceled because of winter weather. In Canada, there was more reporting of extreme cold causing flight cancellations because the air temp was too low for the de-icing solution to work.

https://www.businessinsider.com/snowstorm-causes-travel-chaos-thousands-flights-canceled-chicago-airports-2024-1

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/westjet-extreme-cold-operational-impacts-1.7083160

I think it's past time that reporters get into the specifics of CC/GW impacts with relatable everyday examples. Yeah - there's quite a bit of science-y terminology now and it's good to say that there's science/data behind this but if no one understands this specialized lexicon, it's useless for communications. Maybe we need a CSI/Numbers-type show focused on climate. Med/sci/police dramas made DNA a more understandable concept.

Wonder whether Sesame Street is doing anything specific to CC/GW yet. Because this franchise has a global reach, it's used to providing many more examples to cover and communicate the more likely specific problems for each region/country where it's aired. And if they also came up with a song on CC/GW because songs are great memory aids.

"Rainbow Connection" with Kermit the Frog, Choir! Choir! Choir!, and New Yorkers at Lincoln Center

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8enlTBXR5Y

1243:

Actually no. What I’m proposing is more like a Star Wars B Wing fighter, or in the real world, the Routan Boomerang is a bit closer. Think stupidly asymmetric, precessing flying wing, then get stupider and bigger.

1244:

Temp extremes - thousands of flights in the US (esp O'Hare) were canceled because of winter weather. In Canada, there was more reporting of extreme cold causing flight cancellations because the air temp was too low for the de-icing solution to work.

Yes. And maybe no. These things make the news because they are cheap and easy to produce the story. And it gets attention.

But I have spent several months in total of my life sitting at ORD, ERW, and LGA. And a non trivial amount of time at others. With a side order at DFW but since we had a second apartment 10 minutes from parking there I mostly got to wait in my own environment. All of those others were waiting to get home or leave when living in Pittsburgh. In Pittsburgh it was a 45 minute or more drive to the airport so you had to go and sit there.

Extreme weather has been a big deal with US airlines since they started flying west of the eastern coast. Storm systems roll in from the Pacific, over the Rockies, then across the plains. Many times they mild out by the east coast but the delays in the midwest can add up to the extend my 5pm flight out of EWR might take off as late as 1:30am. Going back 40+ years.

There was that time trying to leave Cleveland after a blizzard in 78 (I think) where the old flip board showed every flight out of the airport cancelled the next morning. Except the flights to Buffalo that literally said "See your travel agent".

I'm not saying it is not getting worse. But I want to see data on how much worse.

1245:

Actually, the jet streams should disappear with enough climate change. They’re powered by the temperature gradient between the poles and the temperate regions. Since the poles are heating faster than the temperate regions are, the gradient is going away. That makes the jet stream slower and more apt to wobble and loop, like a river on flat terrain.

The upshots of this are:

  • slower jet streams and slower travel

  • more intrusions of polar air masses south, because a strong jet stream acts a bit like a fence. Or if you know lazy rivers, think of the jet stream forming an oxbow loop with polar air inside. I think this is what a “cutoff low” is.

  • bigger, slower storms. High jet streams shear the tops off cumulonimbus clouds and move storms along, so high winds mean smaller, faster storms. Slow or no jet streams mean bigger, slower storms that dump more precipitation.

1246:

Sorry, forgot to include this. If you don’t know what a maple seed does, here’s an explainer video: https://youtu.be/r4urT74yq6c?si=1nx9474yY2BzvgF7

The monopter concept is a powered version of one of these. It’s a one winged helicopter. There’s no separate body, and rotation is supplied by putting an airplane propeller on the seed end to counteract the drag from the single long wing on the other side.

1247:

Re:'... the jet streams should disappear with enough climate change.'

Not according to that Nature article:

'Climate change is projected to accelerate the average upper-level jet stream winds. However, little is known about how fast (>99th percentile) upper-level jet stream winds will change. Here we show that fast upper-level jet stream winds get faster under climate change using daily data from climate model projections across a hierarchy of physical complexity. Fast winds also increase ~2.5 times more than the average wind response. We show that the multiplicative increase underlying the fast-get-faster response follows from the nonlinear Clausius–Clapeyron relation (moist-get-moister response).'

I'm guessing this will also complicate launching and retrieving satellites, rockets, air balloons, etc. NASA probably has real data on this right starting from the very first up to the most recent launch. Ditto other countries with space programs.

1248:

I'm guessing this will also complicate launching and retrieving satellites, rockets, air balloons, etc.

The jet stream is somewhat narrow relative to the size of the planet. And you can get daily and maybe almost real time updates of where it is. Over North American it wanders around a bit. And is definitely not a straight line. More like a pissed off snake.

1249:

you had me at "madly spinning drone"

1250:

moral of the story?

never, never ever unlock storage rooms whose contents you are ignorant of

lest you find yourself dealing with: overlooked toxic chemicals which once upon a time were:

feedstock for photocopiers

milk substitute for the coffee which 10 Y later were banned by the FDA (and UK-EU eqv) for containing awful 'stuff'

cleaning supplies which have slowly sublimed into toxic sludge and/or by way of evaporation of the water in 'em are now concentrated to the point of danger (fire, exploding, poisonous gas)

rotting paper which is not just a fire hazard but dust that will easily float into the HVAC conduits from which there is no way to remove and is dangerous to asthmatics, pregnant women, allergy sufferers, etc

gnawed paper which is now rat's nest liner and the rats left behind nasty, nasty rodent shit

mama rats protective of their baby rats who are very hostile and prone to biting

insects of myriad species and moods

records previously assumed lost and thus unavailable to respond to subpoenas during court cases and you have to explain to in-house conseul as well as government prosecutors you were in high school when those subpoenas were issued and not yet an employee of the company

====

all of which having happened to friends

...whereas the really scary shit I will not post due to NDAs and lingering threats of bodily harm by thuggish executives...

1251:

Passing thought ... just add a touch of minced garlic to anything and instantly it's Italian cooking.

1252:

Charlie Stross @ 1240:

You're proposing a larger version of the Hughes XH-17, right?

I think you should think bigger! What 300 metre rotor blades call for is delivery by parachute drop from a Lockheed CL-1201.

If you've got nuclear powered airplanes, why would you need wind turbines?

1253:

David L @ 1241:

US Railroad history.

...

The second issue is that people talk about US railroads as if they were organized to turn a profit transporting things. And to a large degree that was the PR/marketing. But at the end of the day people with deep pockets sunk vast amounts of money into them hoping to later extract a much larger vast amount. And transportation wasn't going to let them do that. So from the 1860s onward most railroad building in the western US was based on if a railroad laid the track they got 1/2 of the land out to 5 miles on each side of the track. (If federal land but most was.) So basically it was a real estate play. The train was just a way to make the real estate valuable.

You got that mostly right, but you left out stock swindles & kickbacks to politicians ...

1254:

Um, no. Back in the 80's, I think, there was a major paper (the Philly Inquirer, I think) who did a chart. The dollars spent for one job in the military can provide 22 civil sector jobs.

1255:

Because with another GOP Congressman leaving this month, he has a one (count 'em) vote majority over the Dems, and so is forced to deal.

1256:

No - "dropbox" is a web site. If you have hosting, you have x gig (or tb) of space. Just make a directory under ../public_html/youxfer (or whatever), dump it there, and use that link to get it.

1257:

Saddam was nasty... but he didn't kill/wound/displace as many as the US invasion and its aftermath. And it was after him that the evil IS started. (Thanks so much, W and Cheney)

1258:

"Once in a generation"? I've walked into take-outs and other stores more than once this last year, where they said "our system's down, cash only". And that's when their system hasn't been attacked by ransomware.

1259:

They only charge that if the business deposits more cash than some pre-fixed amount. And certainly the serving staff isn't going to get dinged.

1260:

On the other hand, it's perfectly normal everywhere I've driven to see people handing the cashier at a gas station $20 or $50, so they can put that much in their vehicle.

Oh, and I stopped using my debit card for anything except deposits/withdrawals AT A BANK - I don't want anyone stealing my bank account info.

1261:

The Ryobi tools battery - for that price, I might as well buy a gas generator, which I can refill and keep going, after the electric company takes a day or more to get the lines back up and the power on. (And we're in MoCo, MD, right outside of DC)

1262:

Cats under the blankets? Geez, you guys were primitives. My mother used to talk about when she was in the sanitarium, up in the Poconos (TB), how they'd put hot bricks under the blankets before bed (a screened in porch was the dormitory bedroom) in the winter.

1263:

Yeah. Ike (President Eisenhower) started the Interstates, rather than expanding the railroads.

1264:

It's not going to make much difference in the US (other than maybe FL, or TX). The ultrareligious Christiansts are years into full-scale culture war, and I read that people are leaving the churches, esp. the evangelical ones, in droves. Consider that a skirmish so minor as to almost be unnoticeable.

1265:

As my late ex, the rocket engineer, was wont to say: it's a heat engine, and you're pumping more energy into the engine.

1266:

"isn't being guarded" crossed out - but isn't that what Jaegers are for?

1267:

"dropbox" is a web site.

It is more than that. Way more. Others have pointed out some of the ways it is.

Very few of the people I know who use the service have ever been to the web site after signing up for the service.

1268:

Yes. We really wanted to take Via Rail to the NASFiC last year... but they wanted twice as much as a plane.

1269:

The Lockheed... um, er, I assume https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lost_Missile was taken from it. As a kid, back then, the tension was enough to get me sick by the time we got home.

1270:

And I don't think it was just the US where passenger traffic was the loss leader for the freight traffic.

1271:

The Ryobi tools battery - for that price, I might as well buy a gas generator, which I can refill and keep going, after the electric company takes a day or more to get the lines back up and the power on.

What works best for one person may not work best for the other. My power is NEVER out for more than 24 hours. An accident from when my house was built in this "new" area in 1961. I am literally the first leg out of the power substation to get turned on and my transformer is connected directly to the main distribution line. Not a sub feed line.

Be that as it may be, Greg was asking about what a "good" battery backup was to buy. I told him about a range of options and that he had to figure out what made sense for him.

1272:

You got that mostly right, but you left out stock swindles & kickbacks to politicians ...

In the US ANYTHING involving stocks and investing in the second half of the 1800s was likely to range of issues from a total fraud to all kinds of small graft and swindles around the edges.

1273:

latest press release from

DEPARTMENT OF LOCKING BARN DOORS AFTER HORSE IS STOLEN

OPINION:

this is exactly the same shitty quality control as Boeing's aircraft disassembling whilst in flight and regulators have tolerated it for too long since there's no heaping pile of burning bodies due to IT megacorp shortsightedness making headlines

https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/cisa-urges-software-devs-to-weed-out-sql-injection-vulnerabilities/

QUOTE:

"In SQL injection attacks, threat actors "inject" maliciously crafted SQL queries into input fields or parameters used in database queries, exploiting vulnerabilities in the application's security to execute unintended SQL commands..."

QUOTE:

"CISA and the FBI urged executives of technology manufacturing companies to prompt formal reviews of their organizations' software and implement mitigations to eliminate SQL injection (SQLi) security vulnerabilities before shipping."

QUOTE:

"If they discover their code has vulnerabilities, senior executives should ensure their organizations' software developers immediately begin implementing mitigations to eliminate this entire class of defect from all current and future software products," CISA and the FBI said."

QUOTE:

"SQLi vulnerabilities took the third spot in MITRE's top 25 most dangerous weaknesses plaguing software between 2021 and 2022, only surpassed by out-of-bounds writes and cross-site scripting."

1274:

Actually a Rotodyne type craft would be ideal for this. The original Rotodyne prototype demonstrated carrying and fitting an army medium girder bridge - also made by Fairey.

1275:

Home built auto gyros were a thing in the 60s in the US in magzines like Popular Mechanics. A step above a lawn chair tied to the front of a lawn mower engine but still they looked neat.

I suspect at some point the FAA made it harder to build such after a few too many deaths.

1276:

A step above a lawn chair tied to the front of a lawn mower engine but still they looked neat.

Have you seen this? The lawn chair is just dead weight...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1Z8YT6w7Rc

Flying To 17,500 Feet on my Paramotor!

1277:

Yes. Similar. The ones I'm thinking of were 3 wheels, a rear prop motor and a big propeller overhead. The control sick was just a handle to move the axis mount around. Very simple setup.

For take off the pilot would reach up, spin the overhead prop, rev up the motor rear prop and go.

1278:

You're thinking of a Autogyro / Gyrocopter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kxu543VwlA

1279:

Yes. But that one in the video is way more advanced than the do it yourself ones I'm thinking of. Thin of a rotor you cantrol not with a stick but with a 1/4 radius big arm from just below the rotor over the pilots head then down to where they grab it with one hand.

Maybe not even foot pedals for a rudder. You just tilt the main rotor and/or lean. More like this:

https://i.warosu.org/data/diy/img/0010/07/1465755467055.jpg

1280:

Re: Monopter.

If I'd been smart, I would have spelled it properly: monocopter.

They exist. There's a wikipedia page. They've been around conceptually since 1914.

Lockheed created one as their Samarai drone. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_q_DD_4LNg

Hobbyists build them: e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Me9bTUYIJ6c

There are foldable versions, rocket powered versions, sword versions...well not yet but there could be. Theoretically. In low gravity...

Anyway, a monocopter, being in the helicopter clade, probably not long-distance enough to launch a turbine blade monocopter off a cargo ship in San Francisco and fly it to a wind farm in Wyoming. But maybe with in-air refueling of the drone? How hard could that be to set up? They refuel helicopters, don't they?

1281:

They refuel helicopters, don't they?

Well, yes, but ....

What if instead of all of these options we fill them with helium or hydrogen and have a regular copter "tow" them to where needed. What could go wrong?

1282:

I like it, inflatable wind turbine blades. I mean, you're still going to need some other source of lift and some way to re-fill the blade with foam or something when it gets to the installation site. Or maybe just keep it inflated while in use (have you seen photos of "worn" turbine blades? They're less "not airtight" so much as "not all there" 😋)

1283:

I like it, inflatable wind turbine blades.

Or just build bladeless wind turbines, inflatable or otherwise. https://greenerideal.com/guides/renewable-energy/bladeless-wind-turbines-the-future-of-wind-energy/

1284:

Or just build bladeless wind turbines, inflatable or otherwise.

The article looks interesting. But it reads more like a marketing brochure. And the wikipedia article reads the same way.

Their explications of efficiency might get a point for effort on a high school physics exam but doesn't make any sense. And vertical towers designed to "resonate" sounds like a design that can wear out and collapse. Just differently from a turbine. And since it depends on resonating vibrations, I suspect it has a song to it.

They seem to say since it only vibrates it doesn't move. Or simlar.

1285:

the appropriate phrase is not...

"What could go wrong?"

rather...

"What could possibly go wrong?"

please make a note of it in further snarky observations about how badly a poorly planned enterprise can spiral outta control into ashes 'n weeping

1286:

multiple typos... efficiency percentages that vary from paragraph to paragraph... and utter babble such as this jewel of WTF:

"As the wind passes through the magnets, it creates a rotating field that drives an electric generator, which produces electricity."

no really, WTF...?

it takes a shitload of torque to spin magnets in a generator which is why those turbine blades have so much surface area

and then there's this howler:

"In other words, for every 10 kilowatts of energy generated by the turbine, only 3.3 kilowatts are used to power the turbine. The other 6.7 kilowatts are lost through friction and other factors."

someone ought to tell the author that generator generates electricity rather than being a motor that consume electricity

it's crudely crafted crud such as this that drives technical writers to day drink

1287:

I found an even better one, a bladeless, rotorless wind generator... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Luxon

Oh, not a generator of wind, a thing that takes money from investors to pay the salaries of people who manage a company that will produce an amazing device but for now none shall know how it works?

There's so many of these things now that I'm getting tired of Dave@EevBlog doing ranty takedowns of them (solar roadways! Wireless power transmission! Radioactive Batteries!)

1288:

whooooopsie!

"Bridge in Baltimore Collapses After Being Hit by Ship; Rescue Effort Is Underway"

there's a 24 second video of the collapse on https://www.nytimes.com/

I dunno where exactly this fits into which thread here within, but for sure there was an epic fail in regulatory oversight leading to (preventable) human error

1289:

HowardNYC
That "NYT" article/pictures won't load properly over here ... but...
HERE is a BBC clip of the same event - spectacularly wrong.
Like no solid barrier around tha bases of the bridge supports, for starters

1290:

I don't know if you meant it to be so but while they are searching for people and hoping not just bodies, your comment seems a bit callous at this time.

1291:

A totally bollocks comment in one paper: Experts say it may be too early to say exactly what happened during the collision and the collapse that resulted. But they caution that bridges of this kind are specifically built with protections against such crashes – and that it may have required a huge impact to make the bridge fall in this way.
Erm, NO.
If you look at photographs, there's zero protection round the base of the bridge piers & supports.
Compare & contrast witht e rebuilt Tasman Bridge in Hobart ... where something similar happened & look at the massive concrete "baulks" now in place around the bridge piers ...
OR - the Forth Bridge, where any colliding ship would run aground, well before it hit the bridge ....

1292:
Given that they appropriated Blade Runner from William Burroughs, I'd be curious to see what kind of hold they actually have on the name.

The best possible kind - contractual; they paid for it.
(Nourse via Burroughs, isn't it? Burroughs turned "The Bladerunner" into "Blade Runner," but it was Nourse's book he was adapting.)

1293:

there's zero protection round the base of the bridge piers & supports.

You might wait till you jump to some conclusions. This is a tidal area. And it may be that what you are looking for is under water.

Or not.

But quick, everybody jump to conclusions about what went wrong. After all it happened at 1:30am, in winter conditions, and everyone is looking for survivors before doing much of anything else.

1294:
Back in the 80's, I think, there was a major paper (the Philly Inquirer, I think) who did a chart. The dollars spent for one job in the military can provide 22 civil sector jobs.

"Can" is not "is."

Poul-Henning is talking about the situation as it exists/existed; is your counterargument that a Reagan-era Congress would have re-established the WPA?

1295:

Blade Runner is based off of Philip K. Dick's books. Not sure where Burroughs comes into it.

1296:

The title came from a Nourse novel, then William Burroughs got to chew on the script for a bit, then they decided to plop "Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep" in, opened a subspace channel to William Gibson's subconscious, and ran with it.

1297:

Some reports are suggesting the lights and instruments on the bridge of the ship went out a few a couple of minutes before the collision. And then there's this (from The Guardian's blog):

An unclassified Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency report said the container ship Dali “lost propulsion” as it was leaving port and warned Maryland officials of a possible collision, ABC reported. “The vessel notified MD Department of Transportation (MDOT) that they had lost control of the vessel and an allision [a ship collision] with the bridge was possible,” the report said.
1298:

The plot is based on Dick's Do Androids Dream Of Electric Sheep; the title comes from a film treatment/novella William Burroughs wrote based off the Alan E. Nourse novel The Bladerunner.

1299:

The point I was trying to make is that some bridges ( The rebuilt Tasman, The Forth, etc ) have deliberately solid bases, extending around their supports, so that any ship, whether under control, or not ... do NOT demolish said bridge.
BUT - it seems that the USA, collectively speaking is incapable of learning from either history or experience - so there.

1300:

that they had lost control of the vessel and an allision [a ship collision] with the bridge was possible,” the report said.

If you use Google Earth and move the views around plus watch the video of the collision it appears the ship hit the pier head on or nearly so.

Then there is this.

https://logisticselearning.com/largest-container-ships-by-year/

This ship seems to have 1500 or so containers above deck. What? 1000 to 2000 below?

The bridge opened in 1977 (I think) and thus was designed in the early 70s.

I suspect no one at the time was was thinking just how big these things would be getting and building bigger foundations was out of budget. But the foundations you can see in Google Earth look fairly substantial. Unless rammed directly by a ship with 2000 to 3000 loaded containers.

I also suspect the piers have the same issue that many bridges do on the east coast of the US. Mud down forever so you go deep and heavy and do the best you can.

I find it incredibly fortunate that it happened at 1:30am. At 8:00am or 5:00pm there might be 200 or more cars of people missing.

1301:

it seems that the USA, collectively speaking is incapable of learning from either history or experience - so there.

Greg. Politely. Stuff it.

1303:

Yeah, sorry for the late night link. Basic point is that bladeless turbines exist at least in design. Presumably they’re not popular because they’re less efficient, more fiddly, and/or don’t scale the way spinning turbines do. Which is too bad in my book. I’m open to being corrected by engineers who know more.

If we were on the Dune timeline, we’d presumably be seeing proto-mentats designing human carrying ornithopters by now, with the knock-on tech of wind turbines based on flapping wings becoming feasible. Apparently that’s not our destiny. Oh well.

1304:

Yeah, sorry for the late night link. Basic point is that bladeless turbines exist at least in design.

When I read it the first or second thing I noticed is how it is supposed to generate power from wind. But it knocks wind turbines by saying they are somewhat unreliable due to the wind not blowing at times. Those power efficiency statements were the other big "say what!".

I have to wonder if the page was written by a PR hack who never took high school physics or maybe by ChatGPT.

And I'm not saying the tech doesn't look interesting but that page and related does a terrible job of selling it.

1305:

Greg, I strongly suggest you STFU on the subject of bridge piers.

In the case of the Forth (Rail) Bridge, the North pier is partly in the Kingdom of Fife, the central pier is screened relative to vessels coming up the Firth by the island of Inchgarvie, but the South pier stands in open water.
For the Forth Road Bridge, both piers are caissons sunk in open water and the visible rock armour is there to protect the piers from weather rather than from vessels.

1306:

The Key Brdige collapse: this is mostly local to us. This was... horrible. The ship is about 300m long, and about 48M wide. I looked at a pic, the containers are statcked NINE HIGH ABOVE THE DECK.

There was a local pilot (required). They lost power, and at some point sent out a mayday. The bridge control did what they could in minutes to try to stop traffic. There was a crew (and cement truck) on the bridge doing deck repairs (it's Monday night, the best time to shut things down). They lost power, tried to restart, twice.

Two people rescued from the river; six or eight missing still. Horrible.

1307:

So, you're talking about ultralights, which are still a thing.

1308:

I agree - looks like an ad, not a review. Biggest failure: upside and downside of wind turbines, only upside of these things, with no downside.

Oh, and it's still giving the bs about "over 1M birds killed every year"...

1309:

Should have? Hell, yes. But Raygun was the full-scale war on unions, and anti-COMMIE!!! and... Biden's created something (underfunded for the moment), like the CCC.

1310:

Of the four legs of each pier of the Forth Bridge, only one of them is fixed to the base. The other three sit on metal plates that allow them to slide (two on one axis, the last on two axes) to compensation for heat expansion.

(When the bridge was being assembled and two of the spans were ready to be joined, the weather was cold and they didn't quite reach each other. So workmen lit fires at the ends of the spans, causing them to expand just enough that the boltholes came into alignment and the bolts could be fitted.)

1311:

Re: non-rotating wind turbines.

Since I’m not an engineer, there’s something I don’t understand. It’s obvious that spinning motors and generators are easy to scale up or down, reverse—my mom taught me this when I was a kid by mounting a cheap little electric motor on a board, putting a crank on the shaft and a voltmeter on the wires, and having me crank it to make a voltage—and so on. It’s proven technology, which is why we’ve had spinning windmills since the Middle Ages.

What I don’t get entirely is why it’s harder to do the same thing with lateral motions and extensions. I mean, linear actuators scale, but they don’t reverse so easily. This is the problem with a non-rotating turbine. It basically has to generate electricity either by running a linear motor as a generator, or it has to turn linear motion into rotary motion to spin a generator. And I don’t get why this is a harder problem than building huge propellers.

1312:

I dunno where exactly this fits into which thread here within, but for sure there was an epic fail in regulatory oversight leading to (preventable) human error

From the N.Y. Times article you mentioned: The crew of a cargo ship issued a “mayday” saying that it had lost power and propulsion before hitting the bridge, the authorities said, calling it an accident.

It's hard to regulate accidents, especially given that most regulatory agencies in the U.S. are notoriously underfunded these days.

1313:

DavidL
It appears they had "just" enough warning to stop road traffic on the bridge, which was fortunate.

Paws
WRONG
The South pier is surrounded by very shallow "open" water - a ship of any appreciable size will ground, before it could hit the bridge ....
Halfway down this link is a picture - clearly showing that there is not any deep water near the S Queensferry piers.

1314:

You know, if a truck goes out of control and hits a house, normally you don’t blame the homeowner, you blame the truck driver. Same logic applies to ships colliding with fixed objects.

Reportedly they were outbound on a trip to Sri Lanka, and the ship catastrophically failed before it left the harbor. Unless the ship was sabotaged, it certainly looks like the captain and possibly the ship’s owners are at fault for not setting out with a seaworthy ship. Not the bridge.

1315:

So, you're talking about ultralights, which are still a thing.

Nope. No wing. Just a big rotating prop.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autogyro

These are fancy ones. The big prop is not powered by the motor. Just the wind from forward motion.

Cheaper do it yourself ones literally can look like a big fan with a prop on top and a lawn chair in the front.

To take off you manually start the top prop spinning by hand then use the engine driven prop in the back to build up enough speed to get airborne.

1316:

So, a few excerpts from the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/03/26/us/baltimore-bridge-collapse

Initially, officials feared that drivers were submerged in their cars in the Patapsco River. But the warning from the Dali, a Singapore-flagged vessel, gave officials enough time to stop traffic at both ends of the bridge, according to several federal and Maryland officials.

Despite the ship’s mayday call, the road repair crew remained on the bridge, with its vehicles parked on the span, the authorities said. One of the two rescued construction workers was in the hospital on Tuesday morning.

...the Coast Guard [will] continue search-and-rescue efforts

An inspection of the Dali last year at a port in Chile reported that the vessel had a deficiency related to “propulsion and auxiliary machinery.” The inspection, conducted on June 27 at the port of San Antonio, specified that the deficiency concerned gauges and thermometers.

1317:

I see the Baltimore bridge was built circa 1970.

Around 1970, the largest container ship afloat carried roughly 3000 TEUs.

The MV Dali is a Neopanamax ship and can carry up to 9971 TEU.

(A TEU is a standard 20 foot multimodal container, capacity roughly 20 tons of cargo. They also come in double-length versions (2TEU containers) and taller versions, but the length/breadth is rigidly standardized for compatability.)

So, when fully laden the Dali has roughly triple the capacity of the largest container ship in service when the bridge was designed.

I mean, 50 years of progress, right?

(I can't help thinking that expecting the structural engineers who designed it to ask "let's plan for what happens if we ram this bridge with something THREE TIMES THE SIZE OF THE BIGGEST SHIP CURRENTLY IN SERVICE" is a bit of a reach. Yes, the bridge structure should probably have been upgraded, or the bridge replaced, before now, but this isn't in the same ball park as the Tay Bridge Disaster.)

1318:

More to the point, can you imagine trying to get public funding for the proposition of “let’s overbuild this bridge by a factor of three just in case ships get bigger and one of these big ships collides with the bridge fifty years from now? “

I’m dubious that pitch will fly, even when they rebuild this bridge after this accident.

Heck, I’d be willing to bet that it will take a lot of negotiating just to get them to design the rebuild to accommodate fifty years of almost certain climate change and sea level rise.

1319:

Heck, I’d be willing to bet that it will take a lot of negotiating just to get them to design the rebuild to accommodate fifty years of almost certain climate change and sea level ris

Shouldn't matter in this case. The brides is very elevated as it was built so tall ships could go under without a drawbridge setup. Baltimore is one of, if not the, busiest ports on the east coast. 800K+ cars per year go in to it.

The road approaches may need to be lifted over time but they are not impacted by the current mess.

Google Earth makes it interesting to see what happened once you align your GE view with the videos.

1320:

when I first saw the posted article with video click no mention of missing and/or dead

"this is a developing situation" sort of content

if I had known there'd been deaths, then I would never have led with "whooooopsie"

otherwise? yeah every other word of my post applies... likely human error as result of lax regulators and underfunded enforcement

just like recent wave(s) of: airplane failures... train derailments... truck crashes...

I'm expecting for worse things to happen given how much complex machinery there is lacking proper maintenance

1321:

HERE is a BBC clip of the same event - spectacularly wrong.

Also on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JDeBPuFQS0

1322:

If you look at photographs, there's zero protection round the base of the bridge piers & supports.

No doubt this will be fixed when they rebuild the bridge...

1323:

Baltimore is one of, if not the, busiest ports on the east coast. 800K+ cars per year go in to it.

Well, maybe not for awhile. There is a big obstruction in the water....

Philadelphia, if it was smart, might try to ramp up their ports. ... Nah ...

And, you know, I would be willing to bet that several three letter agencies are examining that ship's engines & electronics VERY closely.

1324:

Re: '... expecting the structural engineers who designed it to ask "let's plan for what happens if we ram this bridge with something THREE TIMES THE SIZE OF THE BIGGEST SHIP CURRENTLY IN SERVICE" is a bit of a reach.'

A couple of questions:

Lots of bridges have posted limits for vehicles traveling on/under a bridge, why not have limits for ships - not just height but weight/m mass?

Airplanes go through a check of every system just before take-off, I'm guessing that ships don't - if so, why not?

I'm guessing that bridge designers/builders have some idea of how much and types of force these structures could handle. Similar to the Albert Bridge (I think?) sign telling soldiers to break step to avoid causing rhythmic oscillations that can tear apart the bridge.

Just because a safety precaution wasn't in use/needed ages ago doesn't mean that it should never be considered.

1325:

Airplanes go through a check of every system just before take-off, I'm guessing that ships don't - if so, why not?

Why do you think they do not? I think the main issue is virtually all modern cargo shipping (and maybe passenger shipping) is done with one monstrous single engine. They seem to be very very reliable. But when it breaks, well, you have a very large very heavy moving object.

What I can see happening is the port start requiring ships of a size to have a tug escort if sailing with the tide. And maybe requiring ready to drop anchors while in such areas. The later is a big deal as there is non trivial effort to have these ready to drop with little notice and then secure them later.

1326:

Philadelphia, if it was smart, might try to ramp up their ports. ... Nah ...

Wilmington, North Carolina, has most of the infrastructure needed. If not all of it. But much of it is already allocated. I don't know how much slack there is in their current operations. And available staff to deal with all the new stuff that would be going in and out. From customs to rail yard workers.

1327:

Lots of bridges have posted limits for vehicles traveling on/under a bridge, why not have limits for ships - not just height but weight/m mass?

They do - but if your life doesn't involve ships and boats, you rarely hear about it. Bridge clearances are generally very easy to discover, for exactly this reason, as are related things such as the draft (depth of water) under the bridge.

1328:

Airplanes go through a check of every system just before take-off, I'm guessing that ships don't - if so, why not?

Sadly airplanes still crash these days, despite everything that pilots, airlines, aircraft manufacturers, and regulatory agencies around the world can do. As airplanes are much smaller (by orders of magnitude) than any container ship, airplane accidents have much less effect on the world's infrastructure.

1329:

They do - but if your life doesn't involve ships and boats, you rarely hear about it.

Yep. And with local tide tables and current as the clearance and shoals to avoid can change with the tide.

Which is why in virtually all ports around the world large (or all) ships must have a locally certified pilot on board and in the control room while the ship is moving in the harbor.

In the US the same applies to those large river tows. Someone on board and in the pilot house while the boat is moving who is certified in the section of river. Many times it is the boat captain and first officer but still they must be certified.

1330:

The caveats here are that I have no clue about admiralty law, and I know that the US is one of the few non-signatories to the Law of the Sea, thanks to the interference of the Heritage Foundation (on 60 Minutes last Sunday, oddly enough).

So I'm trying to figure out what enforcement mechanism a US Port could use to stop a problematic ship? There may not be many. Reportedly, the Dali whacked a quay in Antwerp in 2016, resulting in citations to the pilot and the master ( https://www.marinelink.com/news/ship-hit-baltimore-bridge-involved-512520 ), but it got repaired and sent out again. Reports of other deficiencies identified in previous inspections are hard to confirm.

What might happen is that some investigative reportage might find that the fact that ships are registered in country one, owned by a multinational notionally chartered in country two, and leased to another multinational notionally chartered in country three might make it hard to get a ship with chronic problems fixed until it's too late. But this is just a guess on my part.

1331:

Sadly airplanes still crash these days, despite everything that pilots, airlines, aircraft manufacturers, and regulatory agencies around the world can do.

Astonishingly, in 2023 no civil jet airliner in the developed world crashed.

There were plenty of accidents and a few of them had fatalities -- "captain had a stroke, first officer landed the plane solo but it was too late" -- but IIRC the only "plane departed from controlled flight, broke up, hit a mountain, all dead" was an ATR or a Dash-8 or similar turboprop in Kathmandu, plus some obsolete/no longer certified kit in Africa, and a handful of freighters (elderly airliner conversions, no passengers on board).

1332:

Re: 'The later is a big deal as there is non trivial effort to have these ready to drop with little notice and then secure them later.'

Thanks for the info! (David L & AlanD2)

My impression was that ships/boats usually had anchors ready to drop whenever approaching a port. Less costly than losing the crew, cargo, and ship followed by paying a fine, various damages, increased insurance premiums, law suits, etc.

1333:

There apparently are concrete "dolphins" protecting the bridge towers front and back, but the ship lost steering and the tide combined with the existing headway pulled it into the pier at an angle, around the dolphin.

1334:

Astonishingly, in 2023 no civil jet airliner in the developed world crashed.

The trend line has been going down for a a few decades now. In N. American, Europe and a few other places.

Various people in the industry started seriously wondering why perfectly flyable airplanes were being flow into the ground.

Turns out (at least in the US) that all of those ex-military pilots ran a top down cockpit. They gave orders and no one talked back or suggested alternatives. Lots of training to make the cockpit a team effort. This was on full display when the ex military pilot of a plane kept telling the flight engineer to shut up and leave him alone as he figured something out. As the plane ran out of fuel and then into a mountain. All on the cockpit voice recorder.

And another issue was at times the cockpit crew would all get involved in solving a problem and no one would really be flying the plane. This was the cause of the Delta L1011 flying into the Florida swamp while the people on the flight deck were trying to figure out if a landing gear light was bad or showed a problem. They kept working on the light until it was too late. New rules. No matter what the issue, one person keeps flying the plane.

Plus a renewed emphasis on checklists are real and to be followed. No "I can skip it as I know what I'm doing."

I'm guessing this was done along with other major countries.

Flight crashes have been going down ever since.

1335:

Lots of bridges have posted limits for vehicles traveling on/under a bridge, why not have limits for ships - not just height but weight/m mass?

One of the things I learned in engineering is that posted limits are often ignored by vehicles, and you don't find out until something goes wrong. You need inspections and strongly-enforced serious penalties to get transportation companies to obey regulations, otherwise corners will be cut.

The same appears to be true at sea, with the added difficulty of trying to establish ownership/liability when you find violations (given the use of shell companies and flags-of-convenience as standard practices).

I used to think aviation was different, as a transportation sector that took safety seriously, but scandals in things like forged parts certifications and (most lately) Boeing's replacement of a safety-first culture with a profits-first culture have eroded my confidence that it is different truly different and not just luckier.

1336:

uhm... as pervious noted...

DEPARTMENT OF LOCKING BARN DOORS AFTER HORSE IS STOLEN

1337:

My impression was that ships/boats usually had anchors ready to drop whenever approaching a port.

The ship apparently dropped an anchor. If you watch the webcam video you can see the ship lose power, get power back, and then start doing something that causes the engines to generate lots of smoke, and then start careening. Looking at a map it looks like if they hadn't tried whatever they did that started the careening it would have stayed in the channel and not hit the bridge.

(Not a marine expert, just been watching a lot of engineering forensics videos since Covid started.)

1338:
One of the things I learned in engineering is that posted limits are often ignored by vehicles, and you don't find out until something goes wrong. You need inspections and strongly-enforced serious penalties to get transportation companies to obey regulations, otherwise corners will be cut.

To support this point: JohnS linked to "The Can Opener" bridge a couple hundred comments back. :-)

1339:

Lots of training to make the cockpit a team effort.

Search term for this is Crew Resource Management, if anyone is interested.

And another issue was at times the cockpit crew would all get involved in solving a problem and no one would really be flying the plane.

Aviate, navigate, communicate. In that order. (I binge-watched Mentour Pilot last year. Highly recommended.)

1340:

To support this point: JohnS linked to "The Can Opener" bridge a couple hundred comments back. :-)

Or any of the vast number of "train hits vehicle that ignores barrier" videos you can find…

Come to that, there's the sequence of events in the Challenger explosion, when engineers were told to take off their engineering hats and come to a different conclusion…

1341:

"The Tacoma Narrows Bridge has collapsed, therefore is already gone, therefore finding out what happened is pointless as we cannot prevent the Tacoma Narrows Bridge collapsing" has originality going for it as far as types of argument, I'll give you that.

1342:

Oh, absolutely. I was just tickled we had an example already provided.

1343:

Turns out (at least in the US) that all of those ex-military pilots ran a top down cockpit. They gave orders and no one talked back or suggested alternatives. Lots of training to make the cockpit a team effort.

The UK had a similar moment in the British European Airways Flight 548 disaster of 1969 (ex-military captain angry at junior officers due to take strike action the next day created chilly climate in the cockpit then fucked up big-time: FO and flight engineer were too scared to take over ... everyone died).

Same sort of thing caused the Korean Air Cargo Flight 8509 crash.

It's always the corporate culture.

Flipside: the United Airlines Flight 232 crash at Sioux City which should have been 100% fatal (the plane had a catastrophic engine failure and lost all hydraulic power to the flight surfaces, but the flight crew basically invented flying with throttle-only control on their way to a "non-survivable" landing that 2/3 of the people on board survived). And then there was Qantas Flight 32 which was again saved through heroic crew resource management (and having not two but five very senior pilots on the flight deck when an engine exploded and took out another engine and a hydraulic circuit).

1344:

I binge-watched Mentour Pilot last year. Highly recommended

I got my info somewhere else a while back. I forget where. But I also know a recently retired major airline pilot. Who got his start flying supply planes to and from carriers. He has interesting takes on some of the issues the airlines and manufacturers have.

1345:

ADMINISTRATIVE NOTE

A new blog entry will be posted this Friday around 4pm.

Just saying.

1346:

About regulatory agencies: remember, this ship was flying a foreign flag, and owned by a company in Singapore that, from web searches, has one director (and no one else, though others show up on linkedin), "owned by a private group" (no name given) in Hong Kong.

I doubt that the US's regulatory agencies do random safety checks on ships coming into the US.

Port of Philadelphia (once the busiest fresh-water port in the world), and Port of Wilmington will be getting busy.

1347:

David L @ 1293:

"there's zero protection round the base of the bridge piers & supports."

You might wait till you jump to some conclusions. This is a tidal area. And it may be that what you are looking for is under water.

Or not.

But quick, everybody jump to conclusions about what went wrong. After all it happened at 1:30am, in winter conditions, and everyone is looking for survivors before doing much of anything else.

First news reports I've seen [just getting to the news after 5:00pm EDT] indicate the ship lost power (which I guess? affected the ability to steer the ship) and just from the short video you can SEE that the ship struck one of the support structures.

Also, the news says the ship issued a "Mayday" call and traffic on the bridge was mostly stopped before the ship hit the bridge.

There was a construction crew repairing potholes in the bridge's road surface and that's who is missing. I don't know why the work crew wasn't evacuated.

Here's a a more comprehensive video and you can see trucks speeding across the bridge BEFORE the collision, and then in the wider view you can see the flashing lights from the work vehicles.

I'm thinking about the 1980 Florida Sunshine Skyway bridge disaster, and the replacement bridge had "dolphins" installed to protect the pylons on the new bridge. Looking at a photo of the Francis Scott Key bridge in Wikipedia, it looks like there are some small "dolphins", but I don't know if they were large enough to deflect such a large ship?

And it appears the ship may have come around at an angle missing the "dolphins" before striking the pylon.

1348:

Presumably they’re not popular because they’re less efficient, more fiddly, and/or don’t scale the way spinning turbines do.

The core problem is that it's much harder to extract energy from small, forceful oscillations than any kind of consistent motion. When the size and force of the vibrations varies more or less randomly the problem gets worse rather than better. Robert Murray-Smith using speaker coils kind of exemplifies the problem - a guy who struggles not to come across as a crank using something not known for high power applications to demonstrate an effect people have struggled to scale up.

That said they seem to yield roughly the same power per area of structure, it's just that building 3-10 towers is harder than building one tower so there's not a lot of interest from the power generation people (I suspect environmentalists might have opinions too). So to some extent it is an "even if it works we're not interested" sort of thing.

From what I gather they're still at the "make a small one work for a couple of years without major surgery" stage. No-one wants a wind farm where even 1% of the sites need major work every year.

There's also some fun questions to be asked about how you'd build a floating one. Just how solid does the base have to be? (not to mention the whole 3-10x as many floaty bases needed)

1349:

@1332: My impression was that ships/boats usually had anchors ready to drop whenever approaching a port.

Only if it's a location where the vessel will actually be anchoring, as distinct from tying up to a dock. Most large cargo vessels (especially container ships) make money for their operators only when moving. This entails keeping time in port to a minimum, with as much of that port time as possible spent productively --loading and discharging cargo.

For load / discharge operations, the vessel is tied up to the dock where the cargo (and cargo handling equipment) is located. For a large container vessel (say, the 10,000 TEU and up range), this will typically call for six to twelve individual mooring cables, each six to ten inches in diameter. Normally, these cables end in a loop (forming an eye) which is slipped over a bollard on the dock. The other end of the cable is (usually semi-permanently) attached to a winch on board the vessel, which pulls the cable tight to secure the vessel firmly to the dock. (Reverse process when vessel is ready to depart.)

If the vessel's operator can manage to maintain a schedule that avoids non-productive anchorage time, it is entirely plausible that this type of vessel could operate continuously for a year or more without * ever * dropping anchor. So, it's not a process that the officers / crew of this type of vessel would necessarily either (a) immediately think of as their "first response" in a sudden emergency situation, or (b) be prepared to execute with a maximum of speed and efficiency.

1350:

H @ 1314
You are perfectly correct ... but ...
Ships go out-of-control { That's what happened in Hobart with the Tasman Bridge - really vicious squall screwed the ship's radar & altered it's course ... } & taking reasonable precautions is usually a good idea

1351:

why it’s harder to do the same thing with lateral motions and extensions. I mean, linear actuators scale, but they don’t reverse so easily.

One of the classic ways to turn small forceful motions into bigger less forceful ones is hydraulics. We see that quite a lot in wave power setups where you're basically using the energy that's trying to bend the boat and divert it into a generator. But there's always backlash, both mechanical and in the working fluid. No joint is absolutely without slop, no valve actuates with no backwash of fluid. If you can predict the change of direction you can pre-push things if that's really important, and if you have a preferred direction you can add springs to bias the system (some machine tools do this). You can brute force it by adding precision in some cases. But there is always slop. Ditto with a rack and pinion setup to swap between linear and rotary motion.

So when you have a vibrating pole the easy place to start is by turning that into a "vibrating" (osicllating, ie AC) electrical current because electronics react faster and are more reliable than mechanical bits, especially vibrating mechanical bits. That works fine at small scale because a coil of wire in a strong magnetic field is easy enough to DIY. Especially if you're not too bothered by efficiency - think of the "make an electric motor" science kits. But scaling it up to "1000kg of wire in a multi-Tesla field" is... not easy.

So you start to think about mechanical amplifiers instead. Hydraulics, for example. But now the exact size starts to matter a lot. If your vibration is a couple of metres each way at 0.1Hz like in a wave power system then yeah, shove a couple of hydraulic rams in there and away you go. The vibrophone people seem to be talking if not audio frequency at least 1-10 Hz sort of range. Which is where hydraulics get into the "kind of work" range - think excavator operators shaking the bucket.

But the vibraphoneers are also not describing the range of motion much. I can see a pole with an X at the base, where the centre sits on a ball and the arms of the X are a few metres long and you have a set of hydralic actuators to tilt the pole on the ends. That lets you change the length of the arms to get whatever degree of movement at the end you want, but stiffness starts to be important. As does mass... make that stuff too heavy and all the power available just goes into shaking the structure rather than pushing on the rams.

And I think that's where the real problem lies. Scaling up a rigid structure is hard because the square-cube law is not your friend. With vibration you also care about mass, because you don't notice mountains "singing" when the wind blows on them. So this could easily be the opposite of bladed turbines, turns out they work better at smaller scale than larger. You might see houses with metre long vibrating generators all around the edge of the roof like overgrown pigeon deterrents.

1352:

Not to mention that "rapidly" in the ontext of 100 tonnes of steel one the end of a chain whose links each weigh hundreds of kilogrammes is perhaps not what most people think of as rapid. More like "a fast elephant" :)

Plus the enormous fun to be had dragging said spiky thing across the bottom of a harbour (surely no-one would put anything important on the bottom of a harbour), then realising that just because you stop the front of the ship doesn't mean the back of the ship is going to do the same.

1353:

@1346: I doubt that the US's regulatory agencies do random safety checks on ships coming into the US.

The US Coast Guard routinely reviews cargo vessel inbound manifests (as electronically filed with US Customs by the importing carrier), but the USCG is primarily concerned with any hazardous materials being carried as cargo, and secondarily that the vessel operator is certified as having at least minimum compliance with SOLAS (Safety Of Life At Sea) international standards.

Beyond that, it's largely a matter of how diligent the commercial vessel inspection and certifying agency(ies) of the "flag state" (country in which the vessel is officially registered) happen to be. (Common examples would include major maritime powers such as Liberia, Panama, Cyprus, Marshall Islands, Malta, Bahamas, Moldova, and Bolivia.)

1354:

There was a construction crew repairing potholes in the bridge's road surface and that's who is missing. I don't know why the work crew wasn't evacuated.

According to one news report I saw (interview with marine engineer) the ship dropped its port anchor.

There's also this: "The ship dropped its anchors as part of an emergency procedure before hitting the bridge, the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore told CNN."

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/26/us/baltimore-key-bridge-collapse-tuesday/index.html

1355:

Charlie Stross @ 1317:

(I can't help thinking that expecting the structural engineers who designed it to ask "let's plan for what happens if we ram this bridge with something THREE TIMES THE SIZE OF THE BIGGEST SHIP CURRENTLY IN SERVICE" is a bit of a reach. Yes, the bridge structure should probably have been upgraded, or the bridge replaced, before now, but this isn't in the same ball park as the Tay Bridge Disaster.)

The Sunshine Skyway bridge disaster was in 1980, four years after the Francis Scott Key bridge went into service. THEY had plenty of time (44 years) to consider what an out of control ship (even a much smaller one) could do if it collided with the bridge pylons.

Compare the protective measures put in place for the replacement bridge in Florida compared to what was there to protect the bridge in Baltimore.

The Francis Scott Key bridge DID have protective structures, but they were kind of small. Apparently the ship passed them and then swerved into the bridge pylon (at least that's what it looks like from the videos I've found so far).

See also: "Starling", another structure to protect bridges

Heteromeles @ 1318:

More to the point, can you imagine trying to get public funding for the proposition of “let’s overbuild this bridge by a factor of three just in case ships get bigger and one of these big ships collides with the bridge fifty years from now? “

There's no way you can build a bridge structure strong enough that it will withstand such a collision.

What IS possible is building a sacrificial structure, called "Dolphin", some small distance away from the bridge - a structure that is much less expensive to build or to replace

From a 1987 article published in the Orlando Sentinal describing the measures taken to protect the (replacement) Sunshine Skyway Bridge from ship collisions:

"The two main piers already are protected by four concrete “dolphins” that were built long before the bridge was completed. Each dolphin is 60 feet in diameter and cost $1 million to build. They are designed to fend off errant ships, as are 32 smaller dolphins now under construction. In addition, small rock islands will surround the two main piers. If a ship somehow gets past the dolphins, it will be grounded on the islands before it hits the piers."

...

"The concrete dolphins are sunk 30 feet into the bottom of the bay and rise 15 feet above the surface. They are designed to stop a ship, not sink it. “In small collisions, ships will really just bounce off,” Knott said."

PS: The engineers in Florida did a "study" and determined a ship would hit one of bridge pylons on the new bridge on an average of once in 38 years ... with the "dolphins" in place that's extended to once every 427 years.

1356:

More like "a fast elephant" :)

So about 65 km/h?

(Those legs swing remarkably quickly when they get going, and they're long so each stride covers a lot of ground. No way a ground ape is outrunning them!)

1357:

Once it gets moving the anchor will also move disturbingly fast. So will the chain. As you say, ground apes don't stand a chance if they get in its way...

1358:

anonemouse @ 1342:

Oh, absolutely. I was just tickled we had an example already provided.

FWIW, I went to High School right down the street from there; less than a mile away. That bridge has been doing its thing since at least 1965 (and I suspect earlier).

When I was in grade school I heard a story about a truck getting stuck under there. Police & fire department were doing everything they could to soap the top of the truck to try to get it to slide back out when some kid comes along and asks why they just don't let some air out of the tires?

The only important thing about that bridge is it amuses me people have been hitting it; getting stuck under there for 50+ (almost 60 now) years.

... and after years of the railroad telling everyone they couldn't raise the bridge, one day it became convenient for them to have it a little bit higher (to level the track through there), but they only raised it six inches so people are STILL hitting it.

Prime example of SOME PEOPLE NEVER LEARN.

1359:

Aviate, navigate, communicate. In that order. (I binge-watched Mentour Pilot last year. Highly recommended.)

Agreed. He's my favorite on explaining aircraft accidents. Lots of his videos are on YouTube.

1360:

"The Tacoma Narrows Bridge has collapsed, therefore is already gone, therefore finding out what happened is pointless as we cannot prevent the Tacoma Narrows Bridge collapsing"

The initial response after the collapse was to rebuild the bridge exactly as the original was build. Until an expert pointed out that if you build it the same way, it will collapse the same way.

1361:

There was a construction crew repairing potholes in the bridge's road surface and that's who is missing. I don't know why the work crew wasn't evacuated.

If I had to speculate, I've guess that there wasn't much time between the mayday call and the collision (assuming the mayday was sent after the lights went out), and there was confusion at the bridge. Did the people who closed the bridge know there was a work crew there? Did they know how to contact them? Did they try and fail? Did they think someone else was contacting the work crew? Was someone else supposed to contact the work crew? If a message was sent to the work crew, was it clear ("get off the bridge immediately") or ambiguous ("we've closed the bridge to traffic")?

It will likely take a couple of years for the NTSB to investigate and write its report. I would expect the answers to be in there, eventually, if they don't surface sooner.

1362:

When I was in grade school I heard a story about a truck getting stuck under there. Police & fire department were doing everything they could to soap the top of the truck to try to get it to slide back out when some kid comes along and asks why they just don't let some air out of the tires?

My dad told me that when London buses were rerouted because of bomb damage during the Blitz the drivers sometimes had to deflate the tires to get under low bridges, then pump them up afterwards.

1363:

Based on the one interview in the WaPo, where they spoke to one of the guys who usually do that, he wasn't working that night. They all ONLY spoke Spanish.

1364:

Another channel I've binged is Just Icelandic. Incredible drone footage of the eruptions near Grindavik, interspersed with commentary on Icelandic life. Also has aerial tours of every town in Iceland, along with good advice for visitors.

1365:

The UK had a similar moment in the British European Airways Flight 548 disaster of 1969 (ex-military captain angry at junior officers due to take strike action the next day created chilly climate in the cockpit then fucked up big-time: FO and flight engineer were too scared to take over ... everyone died).

This was also the situation in the worst airplane accident in history - the Tenerife airport disaster in 1977, when two Boeing 747 passenger jets collided on a runway, killing 583 people. The Dutch captain was an authoritarian who sadly ignored his flight engineer's concern about the takeoff.

1366:

Flipside: the United Airlines Flight 232 crash at Sioux City which should have been 100% fatal (the plane had a catastrophic engine failure and lost all hydraulic power to the flight surfaces, but the flight crew basically invented flying with throttle-only control on their way to a "non-survivable" landing that 2/3 of the people on board survived).

Amazingly, the three pilots flying that aircraft all survived the crash. The third pilot was a captain who happened to be in the cockpit's jumpseat during the flight. He helped fly the plane by controlling the two wing-engine throttles after the tail engine exploded. The cockpit, which had separated from the rest of the aircraft during the attempted landing, was so mutilated and crushed that the rescuers initially ignored checking it for survivors.

1367:

Robert Prior @ 1356:

"More like "a fast elephant" :)"

So about 65 km/h?

(Those legs swing remarkably quickly when they get going, and they're long so each stride covers a lot of ground. No way a ground ape is outrunning them!)

My dad used to have a joke about elephants ...

Q: If an elephant's front legs are going 65 km/h, what are the back legs doing?
A: Hauling Ass!

1368:

so... the boring 'n tedious stuff... preventing disaster is never sexy nor seen as first priority of politicians

had there been those "dolphins" embedded years ago -- and upgraded as freighter got more massive -- maybe the bridge would not have been shredded into tinsel

20/20 hindsight

now try convincing every government to protect every bridge nearby to a major seaport with "dolphins" appropriate to fending off the 'next gen' freighters... never mind 9000 TEUs there's impatience for upgrades to Canals Suez & Panama to be completed so 25,000 TEU freighters can be built and deployed

so too... postponed upgrades in seaports for crane/skyhook offloading from freighter directly to trucks... and automated so it can be done in 24 seconds per TEU rather than human-slow 35 seconds

the supply chain hiccups during pandemic are motivating planning for all sorts of seaport upgrades: automation, cranes, roads, wharfs, et al

as well as everyone squinting at maps looking for where there's places for 'minor' secondary seaports which could handle a single mega-freighter at a time

as just one example, for New York region, that would be far end of Long Island, 80 miles from NYC... where a single 12,000 TEU freighter would be docked with cargo narrowly sorted at point of loading for that micro-region to reduce demand on NJ/NY seaports

1369:

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2024/03/26/baltimore-bridge-collapse-caused/

The good news is that someone has already worked out what caused the collision and how to prevent a repeat: it was the woke!

(the elected rep is already blaming their "social media team" and trying to back away from it)

1370:

(the elected rep is already blaming their "social media team" and trying to back away from it)

Sound bite for the next election.

This wing nut is a Utah legislature. (State not federal) He lives and works 3000km / 1800 miles from the bridge.

My daughter's dogs know more about what caused this. We're only 250 miles away.

1371:

...the icky worms in your dog's fecal dumps know more than that Utah politico

1372:

never mind "Plants v. Zombies"

how about "Boats v. Bridges"...?

available for download, DEC 2024 !

with free 90 day trial of the Biden Builds Back Better expansion pack !

provide covering fire for an army of Joe Clones scrambles to undo the batshit crazy damage done by fanatical MAGAs sabotaging America's infrastructure

1373:

I'm imagining little kids fighting in the playground: MAGA gang vs Woke gang!

(I assume that if kids did actually fight someone would call the cops and any survivors would be expelled)

1374:

God is punishing America for our corrupt Supreme Court.

1375:

You're referring to the rain of frogs?

1376:

But the vibraphoneers are also not describing the range of motion much.

Thanks for the detailed response!

By vibraphoneers, I assume you mean something like https://vortexbladeless.com/ ?

The vortex bladeless thingie seems to work like an aeolian harp with the energy going to electricity rather than sound, but whatever.

1377:

All kinds of shit!!

1378:

»Did the people who closed the bridge know there was a work crew there? Did they know how to contact them?«

They probably knew exactly what it would take to contact them: Somebody driving out on the bridge with a bullhorn to yell at them, and given the video, I doubt they would have even gotten out there, much less back again.

1379:

I've worked in and around shipping and marine life for many, many years.

  • There is absolutely, 100% certainly a protocol for pre-departure checks by the ships engineers and crew. This is basic, first thing you learn stuff. Probably the engineers start the process before they even arrive in port, and work their arses off trying to get through the whole checklist before departure. There is also, probably, pressure to get the ship moving by the company etc. Only an inquest will determine if all the widgets were properly checked and inspected prior to departure, but I can guarantee that there is a process that should have been followed.

  • It is 100% certain that the vessel was being operated by a local pilot - the most qualified mariners on the planet. The years of training, sea time and experience required to become a marine pilot are mind boggling, it is a career title rarely achieved by anyone under the age of 50. They are very skilled, very experienced mariners. If the crash could have been avoided, it would have been.

  • The Captain is fucked. The buck stops with him(assumption of male, very few female cargo skippers) even if he couldn't have done anything to prevent it. Centuries of maritime law are pretty clear on that point - you do not sail unless your vessel is seaworthy. In practice that means you have to trust your various crew to do their jobs right. No idea what the culture was on that ship, but I know the captain is going to be in a very difficult situation.

  • The approximate cost of operating a cargo ship is about $100k/day. With ~3000 containers on board that could amount to a tiny but nontrivial percentage of global trade being held up or delayed. Closing the port of Baltimore is another major hitch.

  • 1380:

    »The Captain is fucked.«

    The specific blame-allocation will not be nearly as interesting as what the NTSB concludes about bridges and ships big enough to demolish them.

    Tunneling under rivers may become a thing again.

    1381:

    As a cautionary note: when it comes to internet rumours, it's being reported (BBC, in the UK) that Security researchers believe a Russia-based disinformation group amplified and added to the frenzy of social media conspiracies about the Princess of Wales's health.

    The researchers say this is consistent with the previous patterns of a Russian disinformation group. The accounts involved were also spreading content opposing France's backing for Ukraine, suggesting a wider international context for the royal rumours.

    If Russian disinformation ops piggybacking on local issues are hitting the UK and France, apparently in an attempt to inflame divisions, then it's an absolute certainty that they're doing the exact same thing in the USA.

    So be careful how much credit you give to rumours blaming one political faction or another for utterly bonkers opinions (although it's also clear that the MAGA fringe are beyond insane at this point).

    1382:

    What was it like in Europe in the 1930s? I know a lot about Germany. A bit about France in that it was the government of the week at times as if flipped between fascists and communists. But the UK I don't really know

    Members of my family, urban working class, say the war saved them. Rationing ensured they got more/enough to eat. The sugar ration was regarded as insanely large.

    1383:

    multiple reasons for why a 'hangar queen' ends up in that status... aircraft, cars, trucks, computers, lawnmowers, etc

    To add to your list. The railways around here are electrified with overhead wires. When snow is predicted a diesel engine appears. It just sits at an otherwise empty platform with the engine running. I suspect it's the rescue engine.

    1384:

    It just sits at an otherwise empty platform with the engine running. I suspect it's the rescue engine.

    Must to the consternation of people who live near by, there is a small switching yard near here. Turns out the engines that normally operate there are NOT equipment with anti-freeze in the water cooling systems. So when the weather gets at or near freezing they just sit an idle all night long. Which is typically less than 20 nights a year. But can keep people awake if their apartment backs up to the switching yard.

    I wonder if the same is true of the ones you're describing.

    1385:

    I doubt they would have even gotten out there, much less back again.

    From first lights out till the ship hit the bridge pier was 4 or 5 minutes. And the bridge started falling as soon as the pier was hit.

    The mayday call was related to the bridge control folks and based on the typical setup they likely hit a big button which turned on big red lights and a sign that said "STOP" at on each side of the bridge. Anyone driving at speed would have a minute or so to clear the bridge if past those lights/signs.

    The crew on the bridge with trucks and such stopped. They were hosed. No way to get in their trucks and get off in the 2 or 3 minutes they had at most.

    Oh. I seriously doubt a bullhorn. Most crews like this work with short distance radios. But even still, just not enough time.

    1386:

    "I doubt that the US's regulatory agencies do random safety checks on ships coming into the US. "

    The UK's Maritime & Coastguard Agency certainly do. See a recent TV series.

    1387:

    What was it like in Europe in the 1930s? I know a lot about Germany. A bit about France in that it was the government of the week at times as if flipped between fascists and communists. But the UK I don't really know

    The Irish Free State, as it was then, coped with the Depression by deciding it was the perfect time to absolutely crater the economy.

    1388:

    At least one large bridge of recent construction in the US was designed with wayward ships in mind, the Ravenel Bridge in Charleston, SC:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Ravenel_Jr._Bridge

    The Ravenel Bridge is a cable-stayed design with two diamond-shaped towers, each 575 feet (175 m) high. The total length of the structure is 13,200 feet (4,000 m), with the mainspan stretching 1,546 feet (471 m) between the towers. Suspending the deck 186 feet (57 m) above the river...

    To protect the bridge from errant ships, the towers are flanked by one-acre (0.40 ha) rock islands. Ships will run aground on the islands before colliding with the towers.

    1389:

    Nick K
    Does it have "little" snowplough-blades attached at the low-down front ends?
    That is common in some parts of the UK, apart from youir standard "battleship" snowplough for really heavy work.

    1390:

    And that's without how busy the (UK) Maritime Accident Investigation Branch would have suddenly got.

    1391:

    A few points re Baltimore. Credentials: not a professional seafarer, but have spent some years working on and around ships in other capacities and taken an interest in their operation. Also plenty of time handling smaller vessels.

  • Pre-departure checks are absolutely a thing on ships, as on planes. There will be a detailed checklist to be followed as part of the ship's Safety Management System.

  • I would be surprised if the US authorities do not do randomised safety checks of visiting foreign-flagged vessels. THey will have the power to detain ("arrest") the ship if there are egregious violations. Obviously, spot checks can only do so much.

  • 2a. Re both of the points above, remember that it is possible that all checks were fine in port and something failed on the way out. (And yes, it is also possible that a fault was missed or ignored for whatever reason). The fate of the captain and the chief engineer may hinge on whether something was missed that should have been spotted, and/or if they were otherwise negligent.

  • Ships' captains are usually pretty cautious about arriving and departing ports - it's one of the riskiest times for most civilian ships due to all the obstacles, the limited room to maneouvre, limited escape routes, limited depth, etc. In risky situations it is not uncommon to have an anchor ready to drop at short notice. I do not know whether this would be SOP for entering/leaving port, but it might be.

  • Although we know that an anchor was dropped, so far as I'm aware we do not know when that happened - i.e. whether it was an attempt to avoid the collision or a way to stop the ship moving after the collision.

  • I wouldn't read too much into the smoke that is visible in the video. Could mean that a lot of engine power was called for in an attempt to avoid the collision; could mean that the blackouts were due to an engine room fire. Could probably mean other things too.

  • Re points 4 & 5: We know little, but it's likely that the investigation will reveal all in the long run.

  • Yes, many (most?) large container ships these days use a single low-speed engine. In some cases these drive the propellor directly, without a gearbox - meaning that they may not be able to fully stop or reverse. This gives very high efficiency at the cost of maneouverability and, I guess, redundancy. It's something that makes a lot of sense for the 2-3 weeks at sea, but isn't ideal for getting in and out of harbour.

  • But, so far as I'm aware, what we know is that the vessel lost electrical power and then hit the bridge. We assume that it lost steering, or propulsion, or both - but there could be other reasons for losing electical power or steering than a main engine faliure.

  • 1392:

    FYI:

    we're not the first generation to be facing climate change...

    "Robert A. Cook, Aaron R. Comstock - Following the Mississippian Spread_ Climate Change and Migration in the Eastern US (ca. AD 1000-1600)"

    from blurb:

    "The volume provides a broader case study of the links between climate change, migration, and the spread of agriculture... Key patterns of adaptation to and mitigation of the effects of droughts... provide a framework for understanding the options available to societies in the face of climate change..."

    buddy of mine is lending me this to get an outsider opinion since his company, [REDACTED HEDGE FUND] is looking for any insights on which way to jump... and yes I got clearance to mention that -- I insisted -- since posts on this blog are by a bunch of widely diverse old farts who collectively have read about 10,000 books I haven't and life experiences totaling into centuries... he's exploiting me and I intend to exploit you-all

    1393:

    hmmmm....

    side mission? or as training phase?

    baby libs v. baby fascists

    or...

    baby sane blue state citizens v. baby foaming-at-mouth red state MAGA-infested

    but definitely...

    babies throwing shit-filled diapers that explode upon impact

    1394:

    New York bigot. "Smaller" seaports... that wouldn't include, as I mentioned earlier, the Port of Philadelphia and the Port of Wilmington, neither of which is minor.

    1395:

    put yourself into boots of work crew...

    dull, repetitive work... tedious and filthy... cold and dark night... likely they were all illicitly listening to personal preferences in music with headphones covering both ears in direct violation to basic safety regulations but one of those overlooked infractions since there was nothing much happening...

    ...right up to the moment an unpowered, silent as a cloud, thousand foot long freighter hit

    1396:

    Nope. I would have thought the bridge control would have a cellphone number... But they may not have.

    From an AP report: within 90 sec, cops were moving. One drove up and parked sideways, blocking all entry lanes. The cop is quoted as saying as soon as another cop car showed, he was going to drive onto the bridge to warn the work crew... but it all happened too fast.

    Six presumed dead. ALL frmo Mexico and Central America, so unless someone spoke Spanish....

    It's still hitting me, the way I guess 9/11 hit some of you (never hit me, for personal reasons). So far, only six known dead, and how many more it could have been. NTSB has the ship's black box, btw. We will know what happened.

    1397:

    Um, nope. NO HAZMATS in tunnels.

    1398:

    Please - the whole thing about the Princess - all the crazies really need to take their meds, but they clearly have no life whatever, if they were that hot and bothered about her.

    On the other hand, the now-TFG-owned (formerly GOP) party is so far out there that almost anything is actually what they say.

    1399:

    I think you missed my comment - from an interview with a guy who had been on that work crew until about a month ago, when he got to move to day shift, they would have been on their meal break. They had no chance, even if they'd gotten the call and jumped into their cars that instant, to make it off.

    1400:

    »Um, nope. NO HAZMATS in tunnels.«

    That's not nearly as universal as you seem to think.

    I can easily imagine why older tunnels may have that restriction, but modern tunnels seldom do.

    1401:

    my bad...

    I forgot to specify "new" minor seaports being considered...

    as in... identifying where there's enough regional growth in prior 20Y to now warrant a minor seaport of their own... in case of Long Island, NY, there's been lots of new housing (much of it luxury and upmarket) but due to quirk of geography only way to bring in most freight is driving trucks thru New Jersey into NYC to reach roads to Queens and thus to Long Island... building a minor seaport at far end of Long Island would reduce mileage by 150+ miles and save 20H to 40H of delay in arranging delivery...

    given how much freight (durable goods and bulk products) is leaving China (just one source but the largest) that ends up on Long Island, yeah, a terminal handling a single freighter at a single extended deep water wharf makes economic sense but there's NIMBY...

    and also forgot to mention all the efforts at upgrading existing seaports

    1402:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daylight_(1996_film)

    you can ask Sylvester Stallone why its a bad idea to allow highly flammable and/or explosively prone stuff into an enclosed space

    nominated for two Golden Raspberry Awards, Worst Actor (Sylvester Stallone) and Worst Original Song (Whenever There Is Love)

    1403:

    It just sits at an otherwise empty platform with the engine running. I suspect it's the rescue engine.

    Known on British Rail as "Thunderbirds". Some dedicated to this role were even named after characters from the show.

    1404:

    Depends.

    The Dartford Crossing sends hazmats through the tunnel. They wait at the entry point until things are quiet, then one of the tunnels is closed to normal traffic and the vehicle in question is escorted through. Once clear, the tunnel is reopened.

    (If it's a southbound vehicle, presumably they close one of the northbound tunnels rather than risking it mixing with traffic on the bridge.)

    I don't know how long they have to wait. Quite possibly many hours at some times of the day.

    1405:

    hazmats through the tunnel

    I suspect (in the US) it has to do with what are the alternatives? And just how hazardous?

    There IS a tunnel under the bay in Baltimore. Two of them.

    I suspect the hazardous stuff was supposed to take the now missing bridge.

    1406:

    "new" minor seaports being considered...

    They would truly be specialty. The entire point of containerized cargo is to vastly reduce the cost. Which happens when you can unload entire ships in hours. Not drop off a few containers at a small port.

    The Wilmington port here in North Carolina has been somewhat land locked for years and at capacity.

    CSX railroad is building (may be finished or nearly so) a transfer yard about an hour or so out from the port by truck. The point being that things going in and out of Wilmington port will mostly get close by rail then use trucks to get to the docks. Each direction.

    But this only makes sense on a very large scale.

    1407:

    Re: 'The ship apparently dropped an anchor.'

    Yes - according to this 8 minute long news video/interview it did.

    'Baltimore bridge collapse: Master mariner explains what went wrong'

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azoGQ_Rf65o

    CBC is usually a reliable news source. The 'what went wrong' is an eye-grabbing headline but as this master mariner explains, there's going to be a lot of investigation including all comms before there's a definitive 'what went wrong'.

    Hopefully the port authorities will also look closely at why the bridge pot-hole repair crew didn't make it out safely: this crew was on their premises (probably contracted by the port authority), therefore their responsibility.

    A couple of other articles I scanned mentioned that the divers can see maybe a foot underwater making it very difficult to make out any bodies or all the sharp ends of the bridge.

    I'm wondering whether any news outfit will look at and compare other recent shipping disasters (Suez Canal) to see whether there's a common pattern.

    1408:

    Being as how we drive up either to or north of Baltimore frequently, I can assure you NO HAZMATS IN TUNNELS, and they are required to either take the now-nonexistant Key bridege, or the other way, land-side, of the Baltimore Beltway.

    1409:

    Hopefully the port authorities will also look closely at why the bridge pot-hole repair crew didn't make it out safely:

    TIME TIME TIME TIME.

    You're standing on a bridge 1/2 mile or so from the ends. You get a notice to evacuate NOW. You have 1 minute. So do you run (Ever worn steel toe boots? I have.) or get into the cars/trucks you have, start them up, and try and get away.

    It just isn't going to happen.

    1410:

    And you base this assumption on... what? Other than apparently wanting their deaths to be their own fault?

    Because I've worked beside roads, and I've worked with a crew fixing potholes, and one's ears are incredibly useful for things like "not getting killed by traffic" and "communicating with one's colleagues," which tend to be non-negotiable.

    1411:

    assumption

    My tenuous relationship with my neighbors went further downhill after I was accused of ignoring him when he waved and tried to say high to me and I ignored him. I was told this a few days after the fact.

    At the time I was operating a 10,000 pound skid steer loader. Wearing in the ear plugs. (and a fever of near 102F) Out building up a berm to keep my yard work from washing into his yard with the 2cm of rain predicted the next day.

    I was concentrating on a 5-10 meter radius around me and ignoring the wider world. Of course that made me a rude person.

    Anyway, if you're used to doing outdoor work with heavy equipment or almost anything that is or can get dangerous in a hurry you learn to focus and pay attention to the immediate surroundings. Or find another job. Before you or your co-workers wind up in the hospital.

    1412:

    Reminds me of when I was working at my first job in Austin after I relocated. For a few days, I went out - to the back of a parking lot, to somewhere there was little pedestrian traffic, to practice my tai chi. Every. Bloody. Day. some self-important asshole would come by and start at me "what are you doing? "Hey, stop what you're doing..."

    I should have put my hat down with a sign "tai chi demonstration, donations please".

    1413:

    Charlie Stross @ 1381:

    As a cautionary note: when it comes to internet rumours, it's being reported (BBC, in the UK) that Security researchers believe a Russia-based disinformation group amplified and added to the frenzy of social media conspiracies about the Princess of Wales's health.

    It's a damn shame this warning probably won't reach the people who REALLY need it.

    1414:

    Re: '.. and one's ears are incredibly useful for things like "not getting killed by traffic'

    Probably especially late at night with lower visibility and more drunk drivers zigzagging their way through traffic.

    I'm wondering how this bridge collapse will impact navy ships (Norfolk Va).

    1415:

    Unlikely, if at all. By road, 209 mi. It's a cargo shipping port. There is one US Naval vessel there.... the USS Constellation, which is unlikely to be involved in modern military issues.

    1416:

    Howard NYC @ 1395:

    put yourself into boots of work crew...

    dull, repetitive work... tedious and filthy... cold and dark night... likely they were all illicitly listening to personal preferences in music with headphones covering both ears in direct violation to basic safety regulations but one of those overlooked infractions since there was nothing much happening...

    ...right up to the moment an unpowered, silent as a cloud, thousand foot long freighter hit

    News reports I've seen say the two men who were rescued from water were part of the pothole repair crew. I'm sure authorities are interviewing those two to get some idea what the crew was doing at the time of the collision.

    I saw another news report that says "rescuers" had located a vehicle on the fallen bridge and believe the six missing men are all inside that vehicle ... suggesting to me they may have received a warning, but didn't get away in time.

    1417:

    I'm wondering how this bridge collapse will impact navy ships (Norfolk Va).

    While Norfolk should be mostly unaffected, there are some Navy ships stationed in Baltimore (lots of good info in the following):

    https://news.usni.org/2024/03/26/coast-guard-heading-search-and-rescue-effort-after-container-ship-collapses-baltimore-bridge

    Right now, they expect at least a month before ships in the harbor can leave.

    What a freak'in nightmare.

    1418:

    SFReader @ 1414:

    Re: ".. and one's ears are incredibly useful for things like "not getting killed by traffic"

    Probably especially late at night with lower visibility and more drunk drivers zigzagging their way through traffic.

    I'm wondering how this bridge collapse will impact navy ships (Norfolk Va).

    Not much I think. The Chesapeak Bay Bridge-Tunnel was built that way so that no enemy attack could collapse a bridge across the channels the Navy uses to get in/out of Norfolk.

    1419:

    I'm wondering whether any news outfit will look at and compare other recent shipping disasters (Suez Canal) to see whether there's a common pattern.

    If I was writing a technothriller I'd have a nuclear-capable power with a demonstrated computer expertise hack into the ship's control systems (likely running on an old unpatched version of a commercial operating system) and cause glitches at just the right (ie. wrong) time.

    Purely fiction, of course, because state-level actors don't engage in this sort of behavior. It's as far beyond the pale as assassinating opponents and ignore treaties… /s

    1420:

    the USS Constellation, which is unlikely to be involved in modern military issues.

    Although it was not decommissioned for the "last time" until 1955.

    There is that U-Boat in the same dock area. But I suspect it's not feasible to get it away from the dock without a bit of work.

    1421:
    • Purely fiction, of course, because state-level actors don't engage in this sort of behavior. It's as far beyond the pale as assassinating opponents and ignore treaties… /s*

    Yeah….

    Let’s see, a nuclear power sabotages a busy and entirely civilian port in the world’s most militarized country by destroying a bridge over the spot where that country’s national anthem was conceived. Not exactly plausible.

    I can see someone in Kiribati reading The Mouse That Roared and sabotaging the ship, so that the US would invade their islands and end up paying to relocate them before they go under water. But Iran, China, Russia, India? None of them win by breaking that bridge.

    Maybe ISIL, hacking out through Russian computers? I could see that, at least in a book.

    Apologies for the skepticism.

    1422:

    Great fun news:
    One port worker told ITN, a CNN UK affiliate, the DALI was experiencing a “severe electrical problem” while docked in Baltimore days prior to striking the bridge.

    Julie Mitchell, co-administrator of Container Royalty, which tracks the tonnage of ships coming into Baltimore, said the ship had been in port for two days. “And those two days, they were having serious power outages … they had a severe electrical problem,” Mitchell said.

    “It was a total power failure, total power failure, loss of engineer power, everything,” she said, adding she did not know whether the issue was fixed before the ship set sail. CNN is unable to independently verify the information.

    Separately, a spokesperson for the Chilean Navy confirmed to CNN the ship was briefly held in the country last June over a propulsion issue. “The port state inspector granted a deadline for solving the deficiency before the ship could set sail, which was completed and verified on site by the inspector on the same day,” the spokesperson said in a statement.

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/27/us/key-factors-baltimore-bridge-collapse/index.html

    1423:

    how hazardous?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lac-M%C3%A9gantic_rail_disaster

    https://lite.cnn.com/2024/03/09/health/east-palestine-derailment-home-screening/index.html

    those particular incidents relatively minor in terms of the batshit crazy hazmat moving past inhabited lands...

    there's been any number of 'bomb trains' which were moved thru heavily populated part of New Jersey (and New York and other states) only at night and only on nights when there was good weather...

    these trains were easy to spot... moving slower than usual and none with more than twenty tanker cars

    another clue? your eyes itched if you were downwind when they pass thru

    FUNFACT: various liquefied chemicals and compressed gases are in tanker cars with passive relief valves to prevent over- pressure... think of it as one way venting much like the human digestive track but not of nasty curry farts... but of chemicals which in concentrations as low as fifty-parts-per-million will turn your lungs to bloody froth...

    so... you hear the train rolling thru slowly? hold your breath

    1424:

    But Iran, China, Russia, India? None of them win by breaking that bridge

    None of them win by making random British royalty look bad either. But they do it anyway.

    OTOH capitalism has a notorious willingness to shoot itself in the head on the regular because when the choice is between profit and literally anything else by design capitalism rewards the people who choose profit. That's the whole point of capitalism.

    1425:

    population of Long Island NY ==> 7.647 million

    which is more than the entire state of Arizona (7,431,344)

    so yeah... worthy of its own freight seaport at North Fork and/or The Hamptons

    but? NIMBY

    1426:

    no... they rightly assumed everyone else was doing their jobs when t came to safety ... such as ensuring there were no gazillion ton freighters with malfunctioning engines

    all too likely the shift supervisor was under orders from headquarters to get the job done and never mind the unnecessary safety briefings... unneeded on any of the prior 3000+ nights of such road work

    when you do manual labor you get focused on the task at hand and the weather conditions -- wind, humidity, temperature -- likely were miserable

    ...and yeah men working such jobs will be listening to tunes to offset their misery

    thus they were not looking around for freighters bearing down on 'em and on those prior 3000+ nights they had no need

    Q: how much blame on the men who died? 0.01% at most because likely they would have ignored the safety briefings... much as passengers on every prior Air Alaska flight were texting during safety briefings and ignoring the flight attendant

    ...after JAN'24 everyone on a Boeing airplane listens closely...

    1427:
    • None of them win by making random British royalty look bad either. But they do it anyway.*

    I have to explain this?

    Destroying a bridge and thereby closing a big industrial harbor is an act of war. If you’re going to do it, you need to go after a big military harbor, say Norfolk, Whitby,or Guam. Why?

    Anyone planning on sabotaging a cargo ship has to assume that there’s going to be a huge investigation, because billions of dollars are in post. Worse, the feds are involved, and assuming Biden gets re-elected, they’ll probably try to recover some f the billions they shell out rebuilding the bridge from whoever is liable. So most likely they’ll find evidence of sabotage if t exists.

    Meanwhile the attack hasn’t harmed US military capability at all. So if someone did just commit an act of war, they’re either prepping for retaliation or quite sure they won’t get caught. That’s a hell of a risk to take for a state actor, either way.

    Meanwhile, cooking up a pointless hype storm is what daily psyops are for. England won’t start a war against Russia based in them riling up malice, no matter how bad it gets. Cut shipping in the Thames by sabotaging a bridge, and it’s NATO article 5 time.

    1428:

    Re: 'England won’t start a war against Russia based in them riling up malice, no matter how bad it gets.'

    I'm assuming the malice you're referring to is re: Princess Catherine. My guess is that the daily rags (Rupie and ilk) and some 'social media influencers' profit from this more directly.

    Some 'influencers' get a share of ad money for ads placed that with/before/after their posts and a few even include sales pitches for products* within their posts. To me, this makes them part of the marketing chain for that brand therefore it'd be fair for these influencers to also be held liable for 'harms'. Pretty sure that the EU has some legislation on this for the social media channels but no idea whether the EU also has anything on the books re: private individuals who (also) profit from such 'social interactions'.

    *Wonder whether any of the influencers that posted the really vile stuff about Kate lost any sponsors ... like what happened when major brands withdrew their ads from Faux News.

    Re: Princess Catherine

    That news was a shocker - hope her cancer therapy treatment goes well and she gets enough rest and time to recover before being put back into the spotlight.

    1429:

    That news was a shocker - hope her cancer therapy treatment goes well and she gets enough rest and time to recover before being put back into the spotlight.

    Agreed. It's rather sad that both she and her father-in-law get treated more-or-less simultaneously. Yes, I'm separating my response to them as royals and as human beings.

    1430:

    You mean like the war between the US and Russia after Russia interfered in a recent US election? Or the invasion of Russia by the UK after the Skripal poisonings?

    I think there's a whole lot of stuff that can be done and often is done that doesn't cause a jump from "act of war" to "actual war". It's like the US shooting across the border and killing people in Mexico... what can Mexico do about it? Shooting back would cause outrage, asking for extradition gets ignored. So polite requests not to is the only option.

    Even God's Policeman is current asking Ukraine very politely to please not use any of their weapons to directly attack Russian territory. Admittedly not doing the same to Israel. But I suspect it's much like Mexico... faced with the choice between probably suicide and sucking it up, even the US choose to suck it up.

    This is in some ways the reverse of the climate catastrophe: faced with some possibility of a nuclear war if they push Putin too hard the US is trying very hard not to do that. But with climate it's more like a strong probability of catastrophe, just not right now, so the US (and many others) are doing whatever the hell they like. Maybe the catastrophe is too slow, too arguable, and requires changed behaviour rather than a continuation of the last 50-odd years behaviour.

    That's probably why the US isn't doing anything about Israel. They'd have to change the status quo and that's hard. Much easier to keep supporting genocide and very publicly think about possibly saying something.

    1431:

    "war by other means"

    hula-hoops; skydiving; heroin; ultra high heel shoes; crack; raves; skateboards; date rape drugs; whatever will wreck the enemy which cannot be traced back to you

    long time rumors that back in the 1960s/70s the USSR had funded the bombers -- there'd been a phase when each week there was a different group setting off a bomb -- who ere advocating for various causes without much success or notice till they started setting off bombs

    my personal paranoid notion?

    don't ask

    1432:

    JohnS @ 1413
    Does this include the traitor, arsehole & paid foreign agent, the unspeakable Galloway, I wonder?

    1433:

    I recall eavesdropping on an oldish gentleman in Maun, Botswana, describing a near miss. He was driving on a back road, turned a tight corner and slammed on the brakes, just missing the very young elephant calf in the middle of the road. Fortunately for him, he was facing a long straight stretch, had not stalled and had reflexively put the car into first gear, because the calf ran off squealing and its mother came out of the bush with her ears pinned back and vengeance on her mind. He was a mile down the track and doing over sixty before she broke off.

    1434:

    I was just thinking that my internet was 4.5 million times too slow and, bam, 4.5 million times faster internet? Aston University makes it possible

    1435:

    None of them win by making random British royalty look bad either. But they do it anyway.

    Not entirely random. Kate is married to William who is the heir to the throne. The current king is 76 and has cancer: in Russian terms he's fixin' to die soon. (Russian leaders almost never make it to 80.)

    So this is shit-stirring wrt. the personal life of the probable next head of state of the UK in the immediate future. So totally not like, for example, Russia shit-stirring wrt. the personal life of the son of the current and probable next head of state of the USA, namely Hunter Biden.

    I strongly suspect that when Steve Bannon said his strategy was to "flood the zone with shit" he was parroting a line he'd been fed by Vlad's KGB homies.

    1436:

    If I was writing a technothriller I'd have a nuclear-capable power with a demonstrated computer expertise hack into the ship's control systems (likely running on an old unpatched version of a commercial operating system) and cause glitches at just the right (ie. wrong) time.

    Don't need to "cause glitches" ECDIS systems actually issue helm commands. The ship can be steered on a specified route. And one ECDIS ran on Windows.

    1437:

    On which note:

    Baltimore bridge collapse could lead to record insurance loss, says Lloyd’s boss: "Bruce Carnegie-Brown says disaster could cost billions and result in largest single marine insurance loss ever."

    Reminder that Lloyd's Names face unlimited liability. So all your premiums (not just shipping) will skyrocket next year.

    1438:

    If I was writing a technothriller I'd have a nuclear-capable power with a demonstrated computer expertise hack into the ship's control systems (likely running on an old unpatched version of a commercial operating system) and cause glitches at just the right (ie. wrong) time.

    Don't need to "cause glitches" ECDIS systems actually issue helm commands. The ship can be steered on a specified route. And one ECDIS ran on Windows.

    ECDIS: Electronic Chart Display and Information System

    1439:

    Re: 'So this is shit-stirring wrt. the personal life of the probable next head of state of the UK in the immediate future.'

    Who already suffered emotional trauma (as a teen) when his mother died.

    When I get news about a loved one (family/friend) who's just been told they have cancer this immediately brings back very vivid memories. This is not an unusual or differently-wired-brain reaction: memories of events that evoked very strong emotions tend to get 'fixed' more strongly and for longer.

    1440:

    Danged ... just read that Kahneman passed away.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2024/mar/28/daniel-kahneman-death-age-90-psychologist-nobel-prize-winner-bio

    This book deserves a reread - gives a useful perspective on how/why people are susceptible to media sh*tstorms.

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2011/dec/13/thinking-fast-slow-daniel-kahneman

    1441:

    Before you go too far with your own shit-stirring, think about two things: Pearl Harbor and what Australia is doing for Gaza.

    Prior to Pearl Harbor, there were a lot of open fascists, like Charles Lindbergh, pushing for US isolationism. After we were attacked physically, they quickly learned to STFU.

    In US politics, our Speaker has a one seat Republican majority, and Marjorie Taylor Greene just us in a motion to unseat him. If one more Republican steps down prematurely, the house goes democratic, along with the senate. Johnson may well switch his working loyalties to the democrats sooner, simply to keep his job.

    Does this strike you as a good time for Russia to physically attack the US? All we have t do is flood Ukraine with aid to retaliate.

    Speaking of aid, the US military is building a floating pier off Gaza right now, so that aid ships can dock and deliver supplies straight to Gaza. It’s going to take a couple of months to build, and Israel has to cooperate, but this is underway.

    What’s Australia doing to help the Gazans?

    1442:

    You're standing on a bridge 1/2 mile or so from the ends. You get a notice to evacuate NOW. You have 1 minute. So do you run (Ever worn steel toe boots? I have.) or get into the cars/trucks you have, start them up, and try and get away.

    I was wrong. They had 90 seconds. There was no way they were not going into the water. Actually less unless they were monitoring police frequencies which they likely were not.

    All this talk about how they must have had no safety training is just bashing BS.

    From the New York Times - Here is a transcript of audio from a Maryland Transportation Authority Police channel, revealing how officers responded to the mayday call and successfully halted traffic.

    • 1:27:53 a.m. Speaker 1: I need one of you guys on the south side, one of you guys on the north side, hold all traffic on the Key Bridge. There’s a ship approaching that just lost their steering. So until they get that under control, we’ve got to stop all traffic.

    • 1:28:09 a.m. Speaker 2: (inaudible) I’m en route to the south side.

    • 1:28:13 a.m. Speaker 3: (inaudible) I’m holding traffic now. I was driving but we stopped prior to the bridge, so I’ll have all outer loop traffic stopped.

    • 1:28:25 a.m. Speaker 1: 10-4, is there a crew working on the bridge right now?

    • 1:28:29 a.m. Speaker 4: (inaudible)

    • 1:28:35 a.m. Speaker 1: Got it.

    • 1:28:37 a.m. Speaker 4: Want me to stop traffic along this side right now?

    • 1:28:42 a.m. Speaker 1: Yeah if we could stop traffic, just make sure no one’s on the bridge right now. I’m not sure where there’s a crew up there. You might want to notify whoever the foreman is, see if we could get them off the bridge temporarily.

    • 1:28:58 a.m. Speaker 4: 10-4, once the other unit gets here I’ll ride up on the bridge. I have all inner loop traffic stopped at this time.

    • 1:29:17 a.m. Speaker 4: Once you get here, I’ll go grab the workers on the Key Bridge and then stop the outer loop.

    • 1:29:27 a.m. Speaker 5: C-13 Dispatch, the whole bridge just fell down! (inaudible), whoever, everybody, the whole bridge just collapsed.

    • 1:29:35 a.m. Speaker 6: 10-4. Dispatch is direct.

    • 1:29:35 a.m. Speaker 4: That’s correct. (inaudible) First time.

    • 1:29:48 a.m. Speaker 1: Do we know if all traffic was stopped?

    • 1:29:51 a.m. Speaker 4: I can’t get to the other side, sir, the bridge is down. We’re going to have to get somebody on the other side in Anne Arundel County, M.S.P. to get up here and stop traffic coming northbound on the Key Bridge.

    • 1:29:51 a.m. Speaker 5: C13, I’m holding all traffic northbound.

    1443:

    More fun from the Dali: for one, Maersk has a policy that NO ONE is to tell the authorities of problems.

    And then there's the one I don't understand AT ALL: how the hell do you run a ship this huge with a crew of 23 (the Edmund Fitzgerald had 29), and of those... 10 were officers, and there was one Sri Lankan electrician.

    1444:

    Yeah. Those two cops just earned their pensions in 90 sec. I read that they don't think there were any cars on the bridge, other than the construction crew.

    1445:

    Destroying a bridge and thereby closing a big industrial harbor is an act of war.

    So is mining a harbour, or shooting down a civilian aircraft, or any number of activities that countries have done while insisting that they are entirely in the right and not at war.

    Leaving aside the legal definition (which has a loophole big enough to sail a carrier task force through), it comes down to real-politik — is the act serious enough to provoke increased hostilities?

    This is asymmetric: acts that powerful countries do regularly would be considered acts of war if targeted against them. So the weak face the task of choosing acts that are serious enough to get attention (and possibly action) without being so serious that they get flattened.

    Circling back to my original post, this would make a decent technothriller plot, because the attitudes in technothrillers (at least when I was reading them) were still rooted in the Cold War.

    Doesn't have to be official policy, either. How many times has someone here posted comments about something done by an American official only to be told by Americans that that official's actions don't represent the entire country? Politics in the real world is messy. Politics in technothrillers isn't.

    Do I believe this was an attack? No, not really. (Even if accidents are increasing, as SFReader wondered about, I think the relentless elimination of safeguards and redundancy in quest of every-higher profits is likely the cause.) But if I was a better writer I would have a Jack Ryan clone discovering and thwarting a plot to cripple the Free World — which would net me enough money that I could hire Charlie to write the third novel in the Halting State trilogy, as well as a sequel to Glasshouse. :-)

    1446:

    how the hell do you run a ship this huge with a crew of 23 (the Edmund Fitzgerald had 29)

    The EF was lost 48 years ago. And launched in the later 50s. Long before automation was normal.

    Big ships now require someone to read the gauges 24/7, point it where it needs to go, man handle the deck ropes and anchors when needed, and do light repairs to machinery. Those huge single diesel engines are very reliable when maintained. Maybe this one wasn't maintained. Or just had a cylinder rod or fuel line fail at the wrong time in a one in a million thing. We'll know more in a month or so. First they have to untangle the ship, tow it to a dock and unload it.

    It is no longer 1975. The huge UF6 gaseous diffusion plant my father spent most of his working days at was designed / built in the early 50. At it's peak it had 2400 workers. When he retired in the 80s it had less than half of that, was more efficient, and produced more product than when the 2400 were there. Much less manual fiddling with valves and controls over the 30 years.

    1447:

    "Wasn't maintained" - I guess you haven't read my previous posts. They were held last year by the Chilean Navy for propulsion problems (which were miraculously fixed the same day). Then they were in port in Baltimore for two days, and were having similar problems.

    1448:

    Do I believe this was an attack? No, not really. (Even if accidents are increasing, as SFReader wondered about, I think the relentless elimination of safeguards and redundancy in quest of every-higher profits is likely the cause.) But if I was a better writer I would have a Jack Ryan clone discovering and thwarting a plot to cripple the Free World — which would net me enough money that I could hire Charlie to write the third novel in the Halting State trilogy, as well as a sequel to Glasshouse. :-)

    Good point. Thing is, novelizing incitements to WW3 are dangerous right now.

    If you want to find a conspiracy, point at the extremist cult of Mammonism, whose drive to fiscalize everything more likely actually contributed to the crash. Maybe have your Jack Ryan clone give them the ISIL treatment.

    And, to stop the anti-Semitism that's a fellow-traveler with rich illuminati conspiracy stories, have a plot about how the apocalyptic cult of Mammon has infiltrated and subverted every institution, every religion, music, art, the internet, relationships...It's far worse than even ISIL, because it's so good at forcing everyone to become complicit with it as its basic protection scheme.

    1449:

    here’s yet another term to muddy the waters about predicting our near future

    GASI == generalized artificial superior intelligence

    why build something only as smart as a human? semi-demi-deity would be better especially if it came with mercy, patience and justice

    ...and was assign monitoring every piece of complex machinery to spot problems prior to epic fails

    problem would be in keeping it from getting bored...

    if not cat videos what then!?

    1450:

    Re: 'They were held last year by the Chilean Navy for propulsion problems (which were miraculously fixed the same day).'

    Good lead for a journalist: find the ship's officer(s) who presented the 'ship's been repaired' papers and the navy officer(s) who checked that the repairs had in fact been done. (Also check their bank transactions.)

    Meanwhile ... you're welcome to wade through this 106 page doc to see how Chile is supposed to run their ports. Looking forward to your 8-slide PowerPoint summary presentation. :)

    https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/ports-policy-review-chile.pdf

    1451:

    I. Do. Not. Do. Power. Pointless.
    2. Um, er, the Chilean Defence Ministry approves "private" ports. And in 20 years increased by 30?!?! from 22 to 52?
    3. And no rail, dependant on trucking, and they lobby for public spending on roads, and not rails?
    ARGH!

    1452:

    Re: 'What’s Australia doing to help the Gazans?'

    $52 million in aid for civilians primarily through legit international aid orgs.

    https://www.dfat.gov.au/crisis-hub/hamas-israel-conflict#:~:text=Australia%20has%20announced%20more%20than,essential%20supplies%20and%20support%20services.

    1453:

    »More fun from the Dali: for one, Maersk has a policy that NO ONE is to tell the authorities of problems.«

    First: All shipping companies have that policy, because all harbors are /very/ corrupt, so revealing anything which could give a corrupt harbor masters any leverage over the ship would become very expensive, very quickly.

    Second, as far as I can tell, Mærsk is not in control of this ship: It is not their ship, it is not their crew, it is not their captain.

    That's not to say that Mærsk's performance concerns will not have had (undue) influence, I'm sure there are very tangible economic incentives involved, but the blame lies with the company in control of the ship, and that does not seem to be Mærsk.

    1454:

    Re: 'Chilean Defence Ministry approves "private" ports'

    Wonder if that's in response to their increased mining*. Their geography - 4,000 mile long coastline vs. 61 mile depth into the Andes - complicates logistics.

    The Chilean gov't is explicitly pursuing open-market policies - ports are considered part of the 'export' industry therefore most are privately owned and operated. BTW - there's some mention about increasing rail.

    https://boris.unibe.ch/97919/1/working_paper_no_14_2016_garcia_and_quindimil.pdf

    *The only Chilean products I'm familiar with are wines. :)

    1455:

    you do not need a spare tire in the the trunk -- UK = boot -- of your car

    an unnecessary allocation of resources not used oft... maybe once every three years for heavy driving along poorly maintained roads... with most drivers never ever using it in ten years

    but...

    you want one... the sense of having a 'margin of safety' and some control over your fate

    problem has been megacorps having their own agenda have whittled away at those things that provide a 'margin of safety' and not just those 'donut spares' now standard in most cars

    by reducing the numbers of quality assurance checks and eliminating inventory of spare parts idling in warehouses and firing anyone too focused upon detailed inspections it is possible to lower costs... increase profits... and much of that newly sourced profit ends up as executive bonuses

    so long as nobody important dies, there will be executives at every megacorp urging the narrowing of every 'margin of safety'

    problem?

    we are all important

    1456:

    you do not need a spare tire in the the trunk

    Nope. It is all about meeting CAFE standards for MPG. If the "standard" package doesn't have an extra 30 pounds then it adds a fraction to the MPG rating. For most cars you can buy it as an option.

    And to be honest, modern tubeless tires don't go flat all that often. AAA is a better investment.

    I know a bit about this. I've manually changed tires on rims (what fun), spent a summer in a tire store with the special machine. And dealt with flats in all kinds of odd spaces. Water filled tires in fields for one. I've changed a tire once on my passenger things in the last 20 years. I curbed a truck tire and 99% of the people in the US would NOT have been able to change it. For various reasons.

    1457:

    Our EV did not come with a spare or a jack with which to change it. It did come with a spray bottle of 'something' that will fill the tire for x kilometers. More importantly, it came with unlimited roadside towing.

    I drove over a bolt last year that flattened the tire. I then called then, a truck was there within the hour and it was all resolved. Presumably this is cheaper than supplying spare tires and jacks in every new vehicle.

    The cynic in me also notes that it provides their service departments with steady trade.

    1458:

    Charlie Stross @ 1435:

    I strongly suspect that when Steve Bannon said his strategy was to "flood the zone with shit" he was parroting a line he'd been fed by Vlad's KGB homies.

    While Bannon is NOT averse to using disinformation provided by Russia et al, I'm pretty sure he's a home grown shit stirrer. The KGB didn't set him on that path, they just found him useful (found each other mutually useful???).

    Bannon's perfidy traces back to the days when Putin was still in knee pants to the days of "Tail-gunner Joe" McCarthy and Roy Cohn, as "refined" by Lee Atwater & Karl Rove ...

    In fact, I'm pretty sure THEY got the idea from Goebbels.

    1459:

    Screw that - I demand a spare. Even the undersized donut. I've had flats - a couple times in the last four years. One, I did call AAA... but then, it was on a limited-access road, with no overhead streetlights, not enough emergency lane to really pull over, at night. Rear left (driver's side). Wait was almost an hour. The other time, I got us into a strip center lot and changed it.
    But then, I've been changing tires my whole life, and don't usually need AAA for that. 15-20 min ia a lot faster than waiting.

    1460:

    Heteromeles @ 1441:

    In US politics, our Speaker has a one seat Republican majority, and Marjorie Taylor Greene just us in a motion to unseat him. If one more Republican steps down prematurely, the house goes democratic, along with the senate. Johnson may well switch his working loyalties to the democrats sooner, simply to keep his job.

    I'm not sure that's correct. If ONE more RepubliQan steps down that would leave the house evenly split. Neither side would have a majority & I just don't know what happens then.

    I think NOTHING! Everything comes to a screeching halt until one side or the other manages to acquire a majority. It's not entirely impossible this could become the MOST "Do Nothing" Congress in our nation's history.

    You better hope if one more RepubliQan decides to call it quits it pushes another one over the edge into deciding the same thing.

    1461:

    DavidL @ 1446: Big ships now require someone to read the gauges 24/7, point it where it needs to go, man handle the deck ropes and anchors when needed, and do light repairs to machinery. Those huge single diesel engines are very reliable when maintained. Maybe this one wasn't maintained. Or just had a cylinder rod or fuel line fail at the wrong time in a one in a million thing. We'll know more in a month or so. First they have to untangle the ship, tow it to a dock and unload it.

    Yes. And compared to the containerships I worked with upon getting into the transportation industry over 40 years ago, modern equivalents typically have half the crew size, for a vessel with 10x to 20x the TEU carrying capacity. The engineering crew members can and do still handle a wide range of relatively minor problems with the equipment (including propulsion and electrical / electronic), but major issues get addressed in port -- preferably during one of the regularly scheduled maintenance layups.

    Much more problematic than the crew size, however, is the triage to distinguish between: 1. Minor issues which can be handled routinely by the crew. 2. Major issues which can be effectively dealt with by either a regularly scheduled or an emergency maintenance port call, typically requiring heavy and/or specialist repair capabilities (both people and equipment). 3. The grey area in between, which includes things which are somewhat beyond the usual scope of the issues the engineering crew members would normally handle, but individually difficult to justify an emergency port call (or extended port stay) to fully resolve immediately.

    As a result, that middle range of problems tends to make "band-aid and baling wire" type temporary fixes an attractive compromise. Which typically kicks the issue an indeterminate distance down the road ... with nobody really knowing whether that (temporal) distance is closer to five minutes, or five years.

    We don't yet know whether something like this happened with some critical part(s) of the vessel's electrical systems, but the bow-on video of the last few minutes before impact appears (at a minimum) to be "not inconsistent" with such a hypothesis. And of course, nobody here might have encountered similar maddeningly persistent but transient fluctuations in any kind of electrical / electronic gear, would they?

    1462:

    David L @ 1446:

    "how the hell do you run a ship this huge with a crew of 23 (the Edmund Fitzgerald had 29)"

    The EF was lost 48 years ago. And launched in the later 50s. Long before automation was normal.

    Big ships now require someone to read the gauges 24/7, point it where it needs to go, man handle the deck ropes and anchors when needed, and do light repairs to machinery. Those huge single diesel engines are very reliable when maintained. Maybe this one wasn't maintained. Or just had a cylinder rod or fuel line fail at the wrong time in a one in a million thing. We'll know more in a month or so. First they have to untangle the ship, tow it to a dock and unload it.

    Cargo ship had engine maintenance in port before it collided with Baltimore bridge, officials say [The New Indian Express]

    1463:

    SFReader @ 1454:

    *The only Chilean products I'm familiar with are wines. :)

    "Wild caught" Salmon, grapes, produce and citrus fruits ...

    1464:

    David L @ 1456:

    I've changed a tire once on my passenger things in the last 20 years. I curbed a truck tire and 99% of the people in the US would NOT have been able to change it. For various reasons.

    Pick-em-up Truck or BIG** truck? FWIW, 99% of Truck Drivers in the U.S. wouldn't be able to change a tire on the BIG truck ... especially if it's on the inside. 😏

    **Semi in the U.S. (and maybe Canada), HGV in the rest of the world.

    1465:

    Since Daniel Kahneman just died, broken mental models are again a thing. Up thread, Greg doesn't get how USians could be so crazy. At 828 Troutwaxer thinks my trucker friend is likely an asshole. On a personal level, definitely not. Socially, not so much. Cognitive bias has made him blind to structural issues in society.

    He absolutely buys into the idea that he is not a billionaire because HE is lazy. In religious terms, sure he's guilty of SOMETHING, because that's better than thinking the universe is meaningless. (See Elaine Pagels on St Augustine. Google Adam-Eve-Serpent-Politics-Christianity)

    That can lead to a bunch of different extremes. If really not successful, eg laid off from offshored job, injured on job, no insurance, chronic pain etc = risk for drug addiction, possible suicide.

    Other direction - realizes the game IS rigged. (All I got for my admission is some watery lemonade and some jelly beans) = ripe for a messiah/grifter to point this out and mobilize him to take down his least favorite elite.

    There is a method to the madness, but it's still madness.

    1466:

    Chile is the world's second largest lithium exporter, largest copper exporter, and is top 10 in "what could have been if not for the fucking CIA" in the latter half of the 20th Century.

    1467:

    { pounds head against wall }

    mentioning spare tire as an example of "margin of safety" which has been trimmed 'n trimmed yet more

    done to maximize executive bonuses and a process repeated 'n repeated without regulatory interference going unnoticed by the public...

    ...until trains derail, freighters wreck bridges and aircraft suddenly get drafty

    we need industry to be more inspected by regulators

    1468:

    HowardNYC
    "we need industry to be more inspected by regulators" - AND - NOT captured by the inspected industry. system, eh?

    1469:

    The lack of spare tyre and jack in some EVs is being sold as a safety measure. EVs are heavy. Too heavy for a scissor jack. And if the user misses the jacking point there is a danger of cracking the battery. Which could cause a fire.

    1470:

    top 10 in "what could have been if not for the fucking CIA" in the latter half of the 20th Century.

    To be fair, that's a list with more than 10 spots in it! Iran and Iraq both got revolutions thanks to the CIA (both of which installed dictatorships). Almost the whole of south and central America got gaslit by Operation Condor, leading to stuff like General Pinoshet's fascist dictatorship in Chile, the military junta in Argentina (and the Falklands war), the dirty wars in Nicaragua and El Salvador, repeated attempts to overthrow or assassinate Fidel Castro, the destabilization of Afghanistan in the 1970s (leading to the Soviet invasion in 1978), all sorts of fuckery in Africa (including the alleged murder of a UN Secretary General), and so on.

    To be fair, a lot of this shit happened because the USA unwittingly picked up the White Man's Burden crap that the British and French empires had been handling by means of the noose and the gun for decades in the wake of WW2/Suez. But the CIA was no better than it should have been; and the USA has structural obstacles to running a colonial empire (namely: complete change of policy from the top down every 4 or 8 years, and a national mythology that defines its existence in terms of opposition to empire, rather than as being an imperial hub).

    1471:

    { pounds head into wall... yet again }

    it was an example in laying out an argument not the focus of the post...

    ...and now I'm in the midst of a fracking argument

    { sigh }

    1472:

    there's a reason the CIA got nicknamed "the Yale Yacht Club" for being a bit overly pampered in their institutionalized cluelessness

    they've got the same grasp of real world conditions in far off lands as a gaggle of Harvard economists have of genuine motivations of consumers and the schemes of megacorp executives

    ...which is to say little approaching none

    1473:

    What’s Australia doing to help the Gazans?

    Same as we're doing to help Australian Aborigines: offering condolences as they sadly pass into the history books.

    Tony Burke is a fairly senior federal MP and also my local MP. One of his staffers asked whether I was one of the people donating to UNWRA on his behalf and I said "someone has to do it, and he obviously wont". As with many US politicians, his private thoughts and willingness to be bound by party discipline count against him rather than for him when he does the wrong thing in public.

    He's in a bit of a tricky position, because being "unconditionally support Israel" and "Palestine must be punished" during Ramadan in a very Muslim part of Australia is his current job. There doesn't seem to be any recent mention of him appearing at Ramadan events so I suspect he's keeping his head down (in past years he's visited the night markets and gone to mosques). The Gaza stuff I'm seeing locally is in vigorous disagreement with both the ALP and official government positions.

    But that's unrelated to your suggestion that countries have gone to war over minor provocations.

    1474:

    I was wrong. They had 90 seconds. There was no way they were not going into the water. Actually less unless they were monitoring police frequencies which they likely were not.

    At least the local news reports say the construction crew (7 of them) and one person working for the state government (unclear if govt employee or contractor) were on break and were in their trucks (it was cold that night). 2 survived. 2 bodies of the deceased have been recovered from a pickup truck. With immediate warning they could have just barely made it if they were near one end or the other. The others were probably in something like a dump truck (don't know the translation into non-US English). The trucks were likely running to keep the heat on.

    1475:

    To be fair, a lot of this shit happened because the USA unwittingly picked up the White Man's Burden crap that the British and French empires had been handling by means of the noose and the gun for decades in the wake of WW2/Suez. But the CIA was no better than it should have been; and the USA has structural obstacles to running a colonial empire (namely: complete change of policy from the top down every 4 or 8 years, and a national mythology that defines its existence in terms of opposition to empire, rather than as being an imperial hub).

    Remember that the CIA was originally a Cold War organization, and the KGB was trying to "help the proletariat shake off their chains" at the same time that the CIA was making the world "Safe for democracy." That they were using the same strategies and tactics, some looted from WW2 fascists, is just one of those little ironies.

    If you're still into spy stuff, Tim Weiner's Legacy of Ashes history of the CIA is still worth reading. So is Enemies, his history of the FBI.

    As for imperial America, I'd date that back to good old Manifest Destiny really.

    1476:

    https://lite.cnn.com/2024/03/28/opinions/key-bridge-black-swan-disasters-maritime-infrastructure-mercogliano/index.html

    interesting perspective...

    quote:

    "So, why have there been so many incidents? The world has seen an increase in not just the volume of trade, but in the velocity of its delivery."

    1477:

    But that's unrelated to your suggestion that countries have gone to war over minor provocations.

    Using sabotage to close the ninth biggest port in the US is scarcely minor. Ignore the "ninth" ranking. It's as big as Russia's biggest Baltic port and about half the size of the Port of Adelaide, by traffic.

    The basic point is that, were this the result of Russian sabotage, it's an Navy Article 5 kind of attack, and it does effectively nothing to cripple the US Navy or even US commerce. That's why I don't think it's an attack, any more than Robert does.

    As for the US controlling Netanyahu, good freaking luck with that.

    1478:

    The others were probably in something like a dump truck (don't know the translation into non-US English). USian English Actual English (including Strine) Dump truck ... Dump or tipper truck.

    1479:

    Yes, and I've noticed a lot of reaching for differences that aren't real. I'd maybe take the time to talk to each one in conversation, but it's just too much to do it retrospectively now.

    On the other hand this one suggest trump duck, which is about the same feel I guess.

    1480:

    Yeah, former company director of mine used to be a consultant marine diesel engineer. And earned significantly more than he does now, but he got tired of the constant travel and got out as everything moved to mostly digital controls.
    He was based in the UK, but would be flown out to whatever tinpot little port the ship concerned got parked in to fix whatever had gone wrong. Bandaid fixes were absolutely the order of the day, to get the ship in a state it could make it to a proper repair facility in a cheap country.
    I saw one photo of a team doing a hand welding line down the length of a piston cylinder that must have been some 40ft high, it was a gigantic steel hole.

    1481:

    "Big ships now require someone to read the gauges 24/7, point it where it needs to go, man handle the deck ropes and anchors when needed, and do light repairs to machinery."

    Interesting point: There is a lot of interest from shipping companies right now in unmanned vessels. For obvious reasons. (NB not necessarily autonomous - in many cases they want to move the bridge crew to an office building. Although there are autonomous ideas out there too)

    I wonder whether this incident will have any effect on that direction of travel...

    1482:
    To be fair, that's a list with more than 10 spots in it!

    The brutal dictatorship was sadly CIA business as usual, yes; it's the destruction of Project CyberSyn that makes it a unique lost opportunity.

    1483:

    https://www.ft.com/content/0d3b1d88-7993-4240-bbef-e523194832b1?desktop=true&segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8#myft:notification:daily-email:content

    Nick Gruen links to this interesting article. Possibly paywalled:

    Like most strongmen, Trump prizes loyalty above everything. As Anne Applebaum of the Atlantic noted in a recent column, “For outsiders, this reality is mind-boggling, difficult to comprehend and impossible to understand.” So it is. But it is vital to do so, because it tells us something profound about events in the country that has been the leader of the west since the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941.

    Ukraine has fought the Russian behemoth to a standstill over two heroic years, despite being outmanned and outgunned. The heroism of the Ukrainians is even more remarkable than that of the Finns in the winter war of 1939-40 against Stalin’s armies. Putin’s so far unsuccessful war has also cost Russia heavily. According to CIA director Bill Burns, “two-thirds of Russia’s prewar tank inventory has been destroyed, and Putin’s vaunted decades-long military modernization program has been hollowed out”.

    Sir Roderic Lyne, former British ambassador to Russia, writes that “western estimates of Russian losses, killed or seriously wounded, range between 300 and 350 thousand, with over a hundred thousand dead . . . Casualties are set to approach half a million by the end of this year.” Moreover, he adds: “A third of the budget is being spent on defence . . . .”

    Ukraine has achieved this against Putin’s revanchist dictatorship at minimal cost to western countries. Nato soldiers are not even being called upon to fight. For the US, the damage inflicted on Russia by the Ukraine war has been a colossal bargain. Yet now, Trump and his acolytes seem set on handing Putin an unearned and undeserved victory.

    If the US now abandons Ukraine, it will shake its alliances to their foundations. How has Trump managed to exercise such control over his party? The answer is that much of the Republican base is loyal to him personally. The Republicans are a cult. Armed with this support, Trump controls party legislators, by exploiting their cowardice and their careerism.

    This makes the next election at least the most important since 1932, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt was elected. What might happen if Ukraine were indeed abandoned? Evidently, it will raise questions about US reliability everywhere. Above all, allies will doubt guarantees. How might they respond?

    Not that I imagine any US voter who posts here wants Trump as their next president.

    1484:

    https://nicholasgruen.substack.com/p/cory-doctorows-guide-to-the-enshittocene

    Nick's blog for anyone interested. He's just discovered enshittification so expect more mentions of that if you subscribe. I'm sure he'll go back to economics and Australian politics as his major focus soon though.

    1485:

    Attacking only the ninth largest port in the USA would be utterly idiotic for a state-level actor.

    Remember on 9/11 Al Qaida attacked three distinct targets? (Flight 93 never made it to Chicago, but that was apparently the goal.)

    And on December 7th, 1941, Japan didn't just attack Pearl Harbour -- they invaded Malaya and the Philippines at the same time and went after Singapore.

    Again, on October 7th, 1973 the Arab allies didn't just cross the Suez Canal into Israel-occupied Sinai, they launched an attack on the west bank and from the Golan Heights.

    And on 6 June, 1944, the UN (aka the US/UK/Free French) opened three simultaneously beachheads on France.

    If you're going to attack a lion, you don't just poke it with a knitting needle, you hit it with everything you've got simultaneously. And the bridge in Baltimore doesn't meet this standard.

    1486:

    Flight 93 never made it to Chicago, but that was apparently the goal.

    I think you meant the US Capital.

    And 2 months after Pearl Harbor, there was a carrier attack by Japan on Darwin with 242 planes. Which tends to get lost in history.

    1487:

    I wonder whether this incident will have any effect on that direction of travel...

    Nope. The people who get their hands dirty understand reality. Well most of them. The management who never came up through the ranks and/or are determined to color their nose keep looking for ways to get rid of those pesky people and their whining, HR, payrolls, etc...

    One of the smartest (IQ wise) people on the planet want to get rid of air traffic control. He says computers can do it with free flight. And has been saying this for over 10 years. I try and explain why not and he shakes his head because as the smartest guy in the room who just doesn't know how to be wrong.

    1488:

    Bridges and safety barriers.

    I read an article about some back of the envelop calculations of the energy released / absorbed by the collision. Very large number even if you take the lowest estimate.

    Basically the bridge acted as a brake/shock absorber. If the pier footings had been hardened with rock or similar the ship would likely have gotten thoroughly mangled and gone down with a few 1000 containers spread all over the channel. The channel is around 50 feet deep at this point.

    Not sure which would be worse at this moment. From a cleanup get back to normal point of view. Deaths might be a bit more but still limited to the ships crew.

    And the bridge still might have been damaged to the point of being closed for a while.

    1489:

    "I wonder whether this incident will have any effect on that direction of travel..."

    Only if this incident has any effect on their bottom lines. Otherwise it's an externalized cost and irrelevant.

    Also, automated or not there is zero chance most ports would allow an unpiloted ship to enter or navigate. There is a reason marine pilots are so very highly paid and the most qualified mariners on the planet.

    1490:

    I wonder whether this incident will have any effect on that direction of travel...

    Depends on how much oversight various non-corporate actors are willing to exert, I think.

    Problems were discovered at Boeing quite a long time ago, and yet despite the bad publicity (and deaths) Boeing still held firm to the decision to prioritize financial returns over safety. And I would be willing to bet that the CEO that's just resigned, as well as other executives involved, aren't really going to suffer. (Full disclosure: I don't consider not being able to afford a third yacht as suffering.)

    Here in Ontario during the pandemic for-profit Long Term Care homes had four times the death rate of non-profit ones. Very publicly the Army was brought in to provide care because some of those homes had been shitholes for years. The long-term result? The government passed a law that raised the level of negligence necessary to sue management — making it nearly impossible for ordinary people to take LTC homes to court and win — and actually increased the amount of public money given to for-profit LTC homes. Almost no one wants to talk about LTC homes now, it's considered 'old news' despite the problem actually worsening.

    Maybe I'm overly cynical, but I wouldn't be surprised if the push for remote-crewed ships continues. Like our LTC homes, those making the decisions aren't risking their money and lives, and so don't really care about negative consequences.

    1491:

    Re: ' ... those making the decisions aren't risking their money and lives'

    CEOs* are usually hired and their pay/bonuses are based on their being able to achieve specific goals - not just profits but increasingly share prices. I think we need to take a closer look at who's making the CEO hiring and remuneration decisions, i.e., how many board members are bankers, what other boards they sit on and how those other corps are being run, insider (and dark) trading, IRS/taxes, lawsuits, etc.

    *There's some data saying that the headline grabbing CEOs (the ones that get billions in pay/bonuses) have scant impact on corporate performance and profitability. If so - it's irresponsible to pay them that much unless they're the corporate Ken doll?

    Re: Chile - exports

    Copper - That's a fairly hot commodity these days. It seems that every few weeks there's a story about someone ripping off copper wires from a local hydro location.

    Charlie's got some interesting news in his latest blog post, folks!

    1492:

    Reading the talk pages of current event Wikipedia articles can enrich your vocabulary. Did you know that when a ship hits a stationary object, it's an allision rather than a collision?

    In these parts, Almöbron is the first thing that comes to mind in the context of ships hitting bridges.

    1493:

    They found the red pickup with the bodies near the center of the bridge.

    1494:

    According to a new report on the station I was listening to in the car, shipping companies have resisted for years the requiring of tugboats...

    1495:

    I know the picture I want to see of TFG. It will be identical to the famous last picture of Mussolini. Hung. Upside down. Expired.

    1496:

    According to a new report on the station I was listening to in the car, shipping companies have resisted for years the requiring of tugboats...

    Of course. What $50K to be escorted down a straight deep channel? Sounds like a racket.

    I'm only half joking.

    There is a point where nothing but absolute safety means you can't do anything. At the other end is doing it the cheapest way possible means you've decide to kill people on a regular basis.

    Setting the dial reasonably is hard.

    1497:

    I don't consider not being able to afford a third yacht as suffering.

    One point being made down here is that higher interest rates hurt everyone. It's just that for renters unaffordable rent means homelessness, for landlords higher mortgage payments mean less spending money or even having to sell one of their investment properties. Those two problems are not the same level of severity.

    The discussion is of course within the boundaries of neoliberalism: we must find a market solution to house prices that does not cost existing landlords money, and in fact the primary goal of any change must be to guarantee not just the capital value of the investment but the return on that investment. I'm using their language deliberately, because talking about "ensure landlords can continue to extort every penny their victims have available" sort of language is apparently offensive and unnecesaary.

    We also have fucked old age care, disability care, and some pervasive probems in schools etc that Nick Gruen talks about in the blog post linked above. The good news is that by 2100 or so none of that will matter because the cumulative climate catastrophe will have turned m,ost of the survivors into refugees.

    1498:

    David L @ 1496
    The acronym you want is: "ALARP" - As Low As Reasonably Practical Used by people like the rail safety experts ( 1 life = £10 million ) or something in that ball-park, anyway ...

    whitroth
    And -as soon as possible, too!

    1499:

    DIY tool for recycling plastic bottles as either 3D printer filament = or = cheap twine

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyOKVBeIQ5w

    1500:

    tugboats only necessary when a freighter crashes.... which is how oft?

    in calm waters, why bother?

    with well-maintained freighters, why bother?

    with non-toxic cargo, why bother?

    ...oooooops

    huge freighters operating at extreme margins of engineering without enough preventative maintenance and demanding schedules necessitating movement no matter how rough the chop

    so yeah, oooooooooooops

    1501:

    tweaks to car components specific to safety are analyzed prior to adding to 'next gen' model of various cars...

    the rule of thumb is the total cost of components for that car model divided by number of lives saved...

    the exact dollar amount is corporate secret but generally assumed to be that saving a life has to cost less than USD$0.3M before that component is reviewed and approved to be added... air bags, tweaks to window shattering, changes to seat belts, et al

    vague memory not sure where I read this

    1502:

    I know the picture I want to see of TFG. It will be identical to the famous last picture of Mussolini. Hung. Upside down. Expired.

    I know the picture too. Sad to say, Billie Holiday singing "Strange Fruit" echoes in my head when I think about him. Entirely too often. I don't want that to happen, because of the inevitable wave of stochastic revenge killings of innocents that will follow.

    As someone pointed out, his official plane is a Boeing 757. Dare we hope that he's been shorting the maintenance on it? Going down in flames would be a fitting end for him.

    1503:

    NC State University's men's basketball team won their game today & is going to the "elite eight" ...

    1504:

    The number of people here who know what this is?

    And the subset who care?

    Getting into some small numbers.

    1505:

    Also 1494 - And when a loss of power and/or steering turns a Panamax into "a missile the size of the Chrysler Building"?

    1506:

    ...and America will run outta popcorn that week as millions crash YT trying to watch -- re-watch -- the mosaic of footage

    { I'm gonna set my version to the Bennie Hill theme And cut it accordingly }

    1507:

    https://lite.cnn.com/2024/03/29/economy/home-insurance-prices-climate-change/index.html

    anyone looking for symbolic moment when the ruling elite controlling cutthroat capitalism finally could not proclaim "there is no climate change" without obviously disagreeing amongst their own ranks...

    it will be fun to watch as the "0.01%" begin gnawing on one another's ankles

    PREDICT:

    by 2046 all those fossil fuel megacorps are going to end up being sued by insurance companies in what will be the single largest class action lawsuit for product liability... billions in legal fees... will take a decade to resolve... but by then the US dollar will be low grade bumwipe as the economy fractures

    QUOTE:

    "In the past, acquiring or keeping homeowners’ insurance didn’t present much of a problem. But as climate change increases the frequency and severity of extreme weather, insurers — especially those in areas most impacted by floods and fires — are raising their premiums, or pulling out altogether, impacting the affordability and availability of home and fire insurance."

    1508:

    sorry... a point that I ought unpack... I do not know how other nations do this, but her in the US in order to get a mortgage, the lending institution ("soulless gigabuck bank") requires insurance to cover the house in case of fire-flood-earthquake to fullest possible "replacement valuation"

    which leads to the inevitable nightmare of homeowners unable to sell because buyers will have to pay full out-n-out 'cash' without a loan which will lead to downturn in prices as it turns into a buyer's market... and hedge funds cherry pick those houses most likely to survive flooding conditions... not many... which is why insurance policies are unavailable...

    so step-by-step everyone stuck with a house they cannot sell and along with city- and state governments facing sudden drops in real estate valuations leading to drop in property taxes and insurance companies and others will realize they ought to assemble their rage into a massive class action lawsuit

    1509:

    Same issue in Aotearoa and Australia. No insurance = no mortgage. Some local governments in Aotearoa have been hammering on this for a decade now and there are still residents and organised resident groups who don't get it, or demand to be bought out at the before price or some other magical solution. I suspect there have been people like the ones in the UK demanding a seawall be built, but to save money just build the part in front of their house (obviously everyone else pays for it).

    Australia has been getting a lot of people complaining that their lovely home surrounded by native bush is uninsurable and the gummit needs to do something about it. But that's not a new problem, it's been going on since at least the 1970's, and a lot of rural/semirural people just don't have insurance (some firefighters are funded by a levy on insuarcen and this is a huge problem - some brigades only have 20% of their area insured so really struggle). The classic Australian wants a "bush block" with a caravan on it, and if the block burns and the caravan with it, so what. But then over 20+ years they build a roof over the caravan, and some walls around it, and eventually move there full time... still without insurance.

    But even in "towns" like Lismore or Indi, they burn then they flood then they flood again then burn and after a while the insurance companies completely lose interest.

    "How the spread of insurance red zones could trigger a property crunch" from 2019: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-23/the-suburbs-facing-rising-insurance-costs-from-climate-risk/11624108

    https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/uninsurable-nation-australias-most-climate-vulnerable-places/

    1510:

    Misremembered: the insurance levy is apparently only NSW, applies to the whole state, and the problem is that it makes insurance more expensive. I'm more concerned about the inequity of it.

    Volunteer firefighters and funding is a whole other source of problems.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/16/chris-minns-vows-to-scrap-nsw-emergency-services-levy-to-reduce-insurance-premiums

    https://www.nsw.gov.au/news/financial-support-for-nsw-volunteer-firefighters up to $6000 at up to $300/day = 20 days which for the overpaid like me is still less than I'm paid in my day job. OTOH there are often ways to make tax-deductable donations to them instead or as well.

    https://theconversation.com/value-beyond-money-australias-special-dependence-on-volunteer-firefighters-129881

    This article covers other bushfire appeal funding as well https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-14/celeste-barber-facebook-fundraiser-is-complicated/11861146

    1511:

    https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/march-29-2024

    "On Wednesday the nonprofit, nonpartisan Institute for the Study of War published a long essay explaining that Russia’s only strategy for success in Ukraine is to win the disinformation war in which it is engaged. While the piece by Nataliya Bugayova and Frederick W. Kagan, with Katryna Stepanenko, focused on Russia’s war against Ukraine, the point it makes about Russia’s information operation against Western countries applies more widely.

    "The authors note that the countries allied behind Ukraine dwarf Russia, with relative gross domestic products of $63 trillion and $1.9 trillion, respectively, while those countries allied with Russia are not mobilizing to help Russian president Vladimir Putin. Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West, they write, if the West mobilizes its resources."

    In case you were wondering what the stakes are in the current info/cyber/psyops war. Sad to say, with Brexit the UK was an early casualty in this war. Probably this is NOT the time to roll over and say that Russia and the billionaires have won already. Trust your bullshit detectors.

    Also sad to say, if we didn't have social media, Russia would have lost already.

    1512:

    which leads to the inevitable nightmare of homeowners unable to sell because buyers will have to pay full out-n-out 'cash' without a loan which will lead to downturn in prices as it turns into a buyer's market... and hedge funds cherry pick those houses most likely to survive flooding conditions... not many... which is why insurance policies are unavailable...

    You're years behind, I'm afraid. I was dealing with this before the pandemic as an environmentalist, and people I know were dealing with home insurance problems since the 1990s.

    The big problem you missed is that developers have enormous political pull. Since in California (probably elsewhere) only high end houses built on formerly vacant land give them the profits they deem acceptable, and since most of the remaining vacant land is getting increasingly problematic/uninsurable even without climate change, there's increasing political pressure to find answers. Especially with the housing crunch.

    Yes, that is a non-sequitur, but unfortunately for everyone, developers routinely exaggerate how much affordable housing they're building with new developments. Partially as a result, the problems with insuring risky homes are now tied in with struggles to contain homelessness and keeping seniors housed. So it's gotten political, at least here. Googling will tell you more.

    Anyway, Gov. Newsome's brokered some preliminary solutions. If they work, they'll put him closer to the White House. We'll see.

    1513:

    Newsome strikes me as being pretty corrupt. As far as I can tell the only reason to like him is because he's a Democrat, which isn't much of a reason at all.

    1514:

    Newsome strikes me as being pretty corrupt. As far as I can tell the only reason to like him is because he's a Democrat, which isn't much of a reason at all.

    I think that it's better to look at the last two San Diego mayors if you want examples of, erm, pro-business ineptitude. See the ongoing 101 Ash Street scandal that's mired them both (e.g. https://voiceofsandiego.org/101-ash-st/). For the non-San Diegans, if you need a dose of schadenfreude, this will definitely make you feel better. The one paragraph summary is "In 2016, mayor Kevin Faulconer entered into a lease-to-own agreement for San Diego’s new City Hall at 101 Ash St. The building is uninhabitable with Asbestos and other issues. 101 Ash has become synonymous in San Diego with political scandals and bad real estate deals. The city overpaid for the property by $30M. It then botched renovations and eventually discovered its own real estate broker had also been working for the building's seller." ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_San_Diego . Unfortunately, the best summaries are paywalled. Note, this is an ongoing scandal that has snared the last two mayors and also Cisterra, the City's landlord).

    Oh yeah, Newsome. He was a protege of the late Diane Feinstein, has many of her quirks, good and bad, and IMHO isn't as good as either Feinstein or his predecessor Jerry Brown. He is capable of learning (unlike the SD mayors), but like all California pols, he has to play footsie with developers, with all the problems that brings. Hopefully he isn't the 2028 Democratic POTUS candidate, unless he seriously levels up.

    1515:

    H
    Russia & Putin lost from the moment they pulled back from Kyiv, same as Imperial Germany lost in the first weeks of September 1914 ... it's "just" thay they did not & WILL not recognise that, especially since they started their respective "Short, Victorious" wars.
    Oh & bugger the disinformation "war" - what's needed is something large & painful up "Speaker" Johnson's rectum, as well as a few more US "R's", so that actual physical aid gets through.
    One thing though ... when the RU collapse does come, as in 1918, it will be very quick & the chaotic aftermath ain't going to be funny.

    1516:

    Troutwaxer @ 1513:

    Newsome strikes me as being pretty corrupt. As far as I can tell the only reason to like him is because he's a Democrat, which isn't much of a reason at all.

    All I can say is be careful whose Kool-Ade you're drinking.

    1517:

    Dare we hope that he's been shorting the maintenance on it?

    757s predate the Boeing-McDonnell Douglas merger when the management rot set in: they're reasonably safe. (There have been hull losses -- they've been in service about 40 years at this point -- but mostly from hijackings or pilots doing damn fool stuff like forgetting to fly the plane.)

    1518:

    Ask yourself what happened to Detroit (both house prices and local government revenue) when the international shipping revolution of the 1970s led to car imports out-competing the Detroit manufacturing industry.

    Hint: if local government is 100% dependent for revenue on local taxation, an entire city can fall into a doom loop quiet easily. (At least before the fucking Tories took over in 2010, here in the UK about 50% of local authority revenue came out of national funds. This meant that even if the local economy cratered due to a major local employer crashing, the local government continued to function after a fashion -- which made recovery possible. At least until the central government started cutting their funds off at the knees and imposed a national austerity policy in order to transfer wealth from ordinary folks to the ultra-rich.)

    1519:

    This is putting strange images into my head. Panamax here is a brand name for the analgesic you might know as acetaminophen, so I'm trying to imagine a tablet big enough to affect the Chrysler building...

    1520:

    So? An it harm no one...

    1521:

    This has nothing to do with Rightwing propoganda. His name is attached to a couple development projects which show every sign of being sketchy, because California.

    1522:

    One might speculate, a "What if?" that I favor is that the stillborn small American Ford that appeared as a Ford Taunus might have slowed imports, likely only until they upped their game. Even if, the resentment fueled anti-labor jihadis would have eventeally done for Detroit anyway.

    1523:

    when the international shipping revolution of the 1970s led to car imports out-competing the Detroit manufacturing industry

    A chunk of that was down to quality issues (at least by the early 80s). People would sign up to buy a Toyota for top dollar, wait for it for months (frequently into the double digits), pay tariffs on it, and still consider it a better deal than a Detroit car because it lasted more than a couple of years and didn't have small things constantly going wrong (if you were lucky, if not it was big things).

    People didn't joke that Ford's tagline was "quality is job none" for nothing!

    1524:

    My Prius has 200,000 miles on it. So far I've replaced the windshield wipers, brakes, and tires. Nothing else.

    1525:

    what...!?

    not the mock-pine scented dangling air freshener?

    { gasping for breath }

    1526:

    Getting into some small numbers.

    My comment was meant to have humor. In re-reading it it didn't have much.

    As one of the two people on this blog likely to understand NCSU and their victories. Says he who was actually at the games in Albuquerque in 1983.

    1527:

    So far I've replaced the windshield wipers, brakes, and tires. Nothing else.

    My 2016 Civic has only 50K miles but similar. Plus a starter battery.

    I seriously don't miss points, plugs, condensers every 10K miles or less. Oil changes every 2K miles, drum brakes, etc...

    1528:

    A chunk of that was down to quality issues (at least by the early 80s). People would sign up to buy a Toyota

    At the smallish company I worked for the Exec VP had owned Cadillac for years. He was previously a very sucessful IMB sales rep then started his own service bureau before hooking up with us. A dedicated buy USA car guy.

    When in around 82 or 83 he had to have his new Cadillac TOWED out from the inside of a automatic car wash, he switched to Mercedes. It was what was known as an 8-6-4 which was an engine control system to turn off cylinders to save fuel when engine loads were light. Turned out it was put into products before it got much past initial testing. I know this because someone else at the company had a son in co-op'ing at GM who basically said it was a panic move against the innovations of the foreign imports. Executives demanded be put into production well before it was ready. He knew this as he would take home test cars with new widgets on them at times. You were put through training and waivers to make sure you would be OK if the car stopped running in the middle of a freeway merge or similar.

    1529:

    Re: NCSU

    Good luck against UConn if they get that far. I don’t have to follow March Madness. Given that one of the local colleges leveled up and made it to the Sweet Sixteen, only to be served up as tapas to the first top seed team they played—again—I hear the results whether I want them or not.

    1530:

    NCSU

    About 5 miles from my house. Both of my kids and a lot of folks I know have degrees from there or went there. Nice STEM school plus other degrees.

    In sports spends most of its time being Avis to the Hertz of UNC and Duke. Both of them are within 30 miles of my house.

    I'm a long time basketball fan. Especially college. But the game has changed to the point it no longer grabs me. I'm not against athletes getting paid but the NCAA screwed this up so badly over 4 or 5 decades that things are now an absolute mess. But the kids (is a 23 year old a kid?) are getting paid. Mostly. Some more than if they go pro.

    But like you said:

    I hear the results whether I want them or not.

    Oh, our local hockey team (Canes) is headed to a Stanley Cup run.

    And with 2 major indoor areas and 2 major outdoor stadiums you need to pay attention just to avoid the traffic. Games AND concerts.

    Around here it IS a part of the daily life and news.

    1531:

    useful description for US GOP though it was written about UK Tory

    QUOTE:

    "The Conservative Party, whose history goes back some three hundred and fifty years, aids this theory by not having anything as vulgar as an ideology. “They’re not on a mission to do X, Y, or Z,” as a former senior adviser explained. “You win and you govern because we are better at it, right?”

    used to be, there was indeed some mode of overarching schemes-ploys-plots that self-assembled into policies for governance once you got elected... better highways, rural electrification, (horrors of) Jim Crow, gunboat diplomacy against weak South American nations as well those near-defenseless Caribbean Basin micro-nations (long range horrors), advancing and/or suppress gender equality... there was something in the way of a vision for modifying the laws of the US... not now, not any more

    https://archive.ph/pdvXd

    OR

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/04/01/what-have-fourteen-years-of-conservative-rule-done-to-britain

    1532:

    Fairy nuff

    1533:

    NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament (aka "March Madness") - NC State University 76, Duke University 64 ... 😉

    The Wolfpack is going to the Final Four; their first appearance there since 1983.

    1534:

    Charlie Stross @ 1517:

    "Dare we hope that he's been shorting the maintenance on it?"

    757s predate the Boeing-McDonnell Douglas merger when the management rot set in: they're reasonably safe. (There have been hull losses -- they've been in service about 40 years at this point -- but mostly from hijackings or pilots doing damn fool stuff like forgetting to fly the plane.)

    It sat out on the tarmac at Stewart International Airport with one engine removed for just about two years until a "loaner" engine was sourced for it to make a one time flight to a maintenance facility in Louisiana (one hour stopover in Nashville after a declared emergency on the flight).

    Don't know if he's using it for campaign events, but he has used it to get to court appearances in the last year or so.

    1535:

    Congrats to NC State on beating Duke!

    And to JohnS for posting first.

    1536:

    Robert Prior @ 1523:

    People didn't joke that Ford's tagline was "quality is job none" for nothing!

    Never heard that one. The one I always heard was "Fix Or Repair Daily" ...

    OTOH, "On a quiet night, you can hear the Chevy's RUST!"

    I've owned both and those I did own have all been adequate transportation for the time I needed them.

    I think my favorite for all time was the "Henry J" from Kaiser Corporation.

    1537:

    David L @ 1530:

    NCSU

    "I hear the results whether I want them or not."

    I went to school there. That's how I ended up living in Raleigh.

    I haven't been following sports for quite a while. I happened to see a news article after they won their first NCAA Tourney game this time and it gave me a happy feeling. I really didn't expect them to get past either of the next two rounds, but here we are.

    I don't expect them to win it all, but it would be nice if they do.

    1538:

    I think my favorite for all time was the "Henry J" from Kaiser Corporation.

    My father bought one of those as a project car. When there were 3 toddlers in the household. My mother hated it. I was too young to have any memory of it. So he gave it to an older cousin of mine when he was 16 in 1960. He often said it was a great car to drive in school. 2 quarts of oil and a tank of gas and he was set for the week.

    1539:

    F O R D -> Found On Roadside, Dead.

    Had a 89 Taurus SHO for 19 years (190K miles).

    If it hadn't been for the 5th transmission that died I probably would still have it (damn, that was a fun car to drive).
    And it got good gas mileage as well, even if it did require high octane gas. My mechanic begged me to get rid of it. :(

    Ford did try to adopt the same quality methods that Japan used (that was originally developed by an American), to some good effect. Like other American car companies, they were compelled to cut corners.

    1540:

    Ok, before I forget ...

    I'm going out of town later this week and I'll be gone for a week (going to see the eclipse) ...

    For some reason, I'm unable to sign in from my laptop (found that out back last October) ...

    So if anything important happens & y'all are wondering why I don't have some stupid comment about it, now you know.

    1541:

    from what's been published about it, my gut hunch?

    Trump does not ride in it but sends it ahead and he flies in something safer and better maintained such as a Gulfstream 5... then gets seen (and taped) getting in or coming out

    he's too concerned about himself to ever risk it... but his wife... his children?

    ..sure

    1542:

    ...please post all such 'stupid comments' in advance so we can critique your grammar behind your back {G}

    and do not 'do a Trump' by looking at it w/o protective gear

    1543:

    I just spent about $1100 on two repair jobs on my minivan. 165k mi. Used to be, I would have done one of them (replace the alternator)... but instead of $50 or so for an alternator, it was almost $300, and it was buried under the power steering pump.

    Getting more serious about looking for a replacement.

    However, the US car industry shot itself in the foot with both hands on the gun.
    1. Planned obsolescence. (aka "everyone will buy a new car every two years, like in the fifties!")
    2. EVERY DAMN ONE OF THEM, FROM EXECS TO CAR SALESMEN, ARE JOCKS, who a) need their emotional support vehicle, and b) to be "sexy", to pick up babes. Japam brought in reliable, maintainable cars that did not eat gas and weren't the size of a WWII Sherman tank.

    1545:

    Howard NYC @ 1542:

    ...please post all such 'stupid comments' in advance so we can critique your grammar behind your back {G}

    I can still READ the blog and y'all didn't even notice I was gone the two trips I took in October and March ...

    and do not 'do a Trump' by looking at it w/o protective gear

    I've only been planning this trip since something like 2014. I DO have all the equipment for safely viewing and photographing the eclipse. ... and did a test run back in October to VERIFY I had learned my lessons from how I screwed up in 2017. I had all the equipment THEN, but left the instructions I had carefully written out on EXPOSURE laying on my desk at home.

    I double & triple checked everything before going out to New Mexico in October to photograph the Annular Eclipse and am in the middle of quadruple checking everything this week as I prepare (including ensuring my spare pair of "eclipse glasses" are in the glove box AND the "instructions" are in the car as well

    Link to a short video I made of last October's Annular Eclipse [Flickr]

    I think the one next week is likely to be my last rodeo.

    There will be another total eclipse in North America and this time my house will actually be within the path of totality ... but it won't be until May 11, 2078, so I don't expect I'll be around to photograph that one.

    1546:

    Have a great trip!

    1547:

    just about the only stupid thing T(he)Rump has not done is eat a cereal bowl filled with broken glass and wash it down with battery acid

    anytime I've wanted to snark upon personal choices and basic safety... pointing to the Raging Lump of Orange Lard (tm) is my go-to-move

    1548:

    Wow! That eclipse will be a week before my 110th birthday!

    (While it's possible that I could live to see it, it's also possible that I'll win the lotto jackpot. And about as likely.)

    1549:

    FWIW, I found some humor in the law of small numbers.

    Imagine the space of nested ven-diagrams of interest here...

    We all have our own corners

    I don't have to know about increased public transit, but the free or deeply discounted food for sports games helps a lot

    1550:

    JReynolds @ 1548:

    Wow! That eclipse will be a week before my 110th birthday!

    (While it's possible that I could live to see it, it's also possible that I'll win the lotto jackpot. And about as likely.)

    Based on family history, I expect to come up 40-50 years short, so I'd best gather ye olde rosebuds while I may ...

    1551:

    https://lite.cnn.com/2024/04/01/energy/ukrainian-drones-disrupting-russian-energy-industry-intl-cmd/index.html

    almost ROFLing...

    "The strike on March 13, one of several on this facility alone, was part of a concerted Ukrainian effort to target Russian oil refineries with long-range drones. ... These daring Ukrainian strikes are hitting Russia’s massive oil and gas industry, which despite Western import bans and price caps has remained the biggest source of revenue for Moscow’s war economy. ..."

    1552:

    Re: '... had all the equipment THEN, but left the instructions I had carefully written out on EXPOSURE laying on my desk at home.'

    Email them to your mobile phone as a backup. Hope you get clear skies! Post your video link when you get back.

    I'm planning to watch the eclipse real-time on the NASA YT site. There's a lot of citizen science stuff that's going on - I'm especially looking forward to seeing/hearing how various fauna/birds react.

    1553:

    COVID - heart problems

    Just saw this and thought folks here would be interested - I hope that this research team does this study on all of the other organs/tissues as well. No idea whether there are any quick and affordable tests to measure mitochondrial DNA in the blood.

    https://news.engineering.utoronto.ca/heart-on-a-chip-model-created-by-u-of-t-researchers-uncovers-insights-into-heart-problems-caused-by-covid-19/

    ' ... the researchers then asked whether the presence of freely circulating mitochondrial DNA is also seen in patients experiencing COVID-19-induced heart complications. They analyzed blood samples from patients with and without COVID-19 and found nearly two-and-a-half times higher levels of mitochondrial DNA in patients who were COVID-19-positive. Their findings point to mitochondrial DNA levels as a powerful predictor of a person’s risk of experiencing cardiac problems after SARS-CoV-2 infection.

    The team also showed that a new type of cell-based therapy called exosomes — little cargo vessels that bubble off cells — could reduce inflammation and mitochondria loss, and improve heart function after SARS-CoV-2 infection, highlighting their potential to repair COVID-19-associated heart damage.'

    1554:

    ah... at last... a silver lining from these gloomy clouds building up as long covid is ever more difficult to deny

    1555:

    Nope, no silver lining in sight, the clouds are the colour of the lead they contain (because it's raining bullets).

    COVID19 is not a respiratory disease. The virus gains access to the intracellular compartment via the ACE2 receptor expressed on the surface of the cell. ACE2 is part of the renin/angiotensin feedback loop which among other things controls blood pressure: it's found almost everywhere in your circulatory system, including the "blood" side of the blood/brain barrier, but also in all your other organs. Lungs simply get hit first and hardest because they contain a lot of small blood vessels in close proximity to the site of entry for aerosolized particles.

    Speculating a bit here: the ACE2 receptor is found throughout the circulatory system including in the bone marrow where your lymphocytes are grown -- this may have something to do with why COVID19 hits the immune system (it suppresses immune memory, not as severely as HIV but badly enough that you develop little or no immunity after an infection).

    But what the ACE2 thing really means is that COVID19 creates a pattern of generalized inflammation to all your blood vessels, one of the symptoms of which is leaks. Lungs: check. Heart: also a primary target. Liver, kidneys, pancreas, gut: check, check, check, check. You spring minor and not so minor leaks everywhere -- if it was more severe it'd be recognizable as a haemorrhagic disease (think Ebola) but it's not in that league, it's just that you're about about double to triple the risk of a stroke or fatal heart attack in the months after an infection. There are also strong indications that COVID leads to a higher risk of dementia and/or Parkinson's disease years to decades down the line, because even without a visible stroke it causes low level pervasive brain damage.

    Noticed more people being rude or angry lately? Erratic or impaired driving in the absence of alcohol or drugs? A higher incidence of stupidity than you remember in previous decades? We just got out from beneath the penumbra of ubiquitous lead poisoning (good for 6 points off your IQ if your age is typical of commenters here!) only to get the same thing creeping back via COVID.

    So we've got widespread diffuse organ damage and inflammation, immunosuppression, and skyrocketing rates of acute fatal vascular accidents after infection, and regular repeat infections. What else? Ah yes, Long COVID: we're not definitely sure we understand what causes it, but it appears to be a symptom of damage to mitochondria (your cells' internal chemical energy generators) because there are also ACE2 receptors inside your cells, serving various arcane functions (biology is a tangled heap of spaghetti code, in computer terms). What we also don't know is how long it lasts, and what determines its severity: but like CFS/ME, Long COVID can be profoundly disabling (and ME can last decades and ruin lives).

    Anyway.

    The pandemic isn't over: it's just gone endemic. Each repeat infection causes more damage with a cumulative risk of Long COVID that rises with every cycle.

    Our extreme end condition for this pandemic is that after 10-20 years our infrastructure is crumbling due to a labour shortage, there's spiraling wage inflation because people who can still work effectively are hard to find, scientific progress will be stalling because the mental acuity of our researchers will be blunted, fake news and manipulation via chatbot will have destroyed our cultural cohesion and set fire to our social capital, stillbirths are through the ceiling (yes, that's another happy fun COVID19 side-effect!), and we're stuck in a very slow doom loop that synergizes in the worst possible way with the climate crisis.

    This is how we go: not with a bang, but with a bunch of relatively young "old" folks waving their walking sticks at the sky and wheezing angrily at the imaginary chemtrails.

    1556:

    The thing I love most about you, Charlie, is you beautiful, brash optimism. It's like a summer breeze!

    1557:
    fake news and manipulation via chatbot will have destroyed our cultural cohesion and set fire to our social capital

    When "a background detail from Peter Watts' Rifters books" is a completely plausible prediction we are in a very dark place.

    (In Maelstrom the usable part of the internet is kept usable by firewalls run by head cheeses - literal neural networks. More accurately, in the start of Maelstrom; part of the book is the breakdown of that walled garden...)

    1558:

    Charlie @ 1555
    Oh SHIT
    All of what you describe, coupled with the 100% non-recognition of any of this by our politicians, or any in Europe at all - as far as I can see.
    Even that is better than the USA (Dump) of course.
    In this country, couple that with the rip-off con-men supposedly running the place & an NHS staggering under the load { Do even all the medics realise what shit-show C-19 was/is, I wonder? } ...
    And we certainly have ingredients if not for a societal collapse, but a general slowing-down & "Nothing fucking works any more" set of attitudes.
    I certainly count myself as lucky NOT to have had this particular lurgi.

    Oh yes,your explanation also clarifies one of the naysayers ant-vaxx attitudes, because C-19 stuffs the immune "memory" .....
    Your last: Hmmm ... reminds me of the "Plagues of Justinian" & similar really fucking over the remains of SPQR?
    How's that for today's analogy? I certainly don't like it.

    1559:

    Do even all the medics realise what shit-show C-19 was/is, I wonder?

    The ones who studied 'A' level biology and got a double-handful of biochemistry and evolutionary biology, along with some microbiology, are just about equipped to get it. But it's possible to train in medicine or nursing (or pharmacy) as purely practical artisanal occupations, do a lot of rote memorisation, and not actually know the field at a deep enough level to understand the implications.

    Because COVID19's mechanism of action is so low-level, most medical practitioners aren't equipped to confront all aspects of it. It really requires cross-disciplinary knowledge from multiple fields and has a hellishly steep learning curve from general medicine.

    We can expect better from the microbiology and virology and immunology lab specialists and the handful of consultants who deal with this stuff, but they're not generally asked for their advice on things like air filtration in school classrooms.

    1560:

    We can expect better from the microbiology and virology and immunology lab specialists and the handful of consultants who deal with this stuff, but they're not generally asked for their advice on things like air filtration in school classrooms.

    Tom Nichols just released a book on this in general. He discusses how the experts and politicians both walked into each others gardens and messed them up. Plus how COVID (with Trump in the US) got to be more political than practical. And a non trivial bit of it was about how COVID was new and different and many people tried to jam the round peg into the existing square holes. And made a mess of it.

    Here's a 10 minute video interview about the book. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SR0dUjFR-zY

    Tom Nichols is a US political columnist who generally has his head on straight. You can disagree with him but his analysis isn't stupid. (Like so many are.)

    1561:

    dude, do not harsh my mellow

    I was trying -- albeit for a rather brief moment -- to be looking for the happy-happy-joy-joy rather than my early onset SSR

    lots of folks noticed the behavioral shift and it was shrugged off as due to 'day drinking' and/or long simmering economic impotence of various subsections of the populace

    what nobody wants to do is look closer lest it become an issue warranting formal attention, rigorous treatment and annual line item budgeting

    sort of like smoking tobacco in the 1950s when the government (US centric) was willfully ignoring its impact

    but this is the first I've heard of covid-induced stillbirths... OMG... shitstorm

    well, there goes my mellow

    SSR = sullen senior raging

    1562:

    ...whaffing off a toxic waste dump burning sullenly under the moonlight

    1563:

    Apropos of physics, I've got a gravity-related terraforming question for anybody who feels worthy:

    The question is this: given a moonless Earth-sized planet that has a Uranus-scale axial tilt, if you could maneuver a large asteroid into polar orbit around it, would the pull of the asteroid perpendicular to the planet's axial tilt decrease the planet's axial tilt to something more terrestrial? If it did, what kinds of time scales are involved (millions of years?)? What is the ultimate fate of the asteroid? Does it crash into the planet, fly off into space...?

    A deranged terraforming enthusiast wants to know.

    1564:

    Earth's moon = 7.34 * 10^25 grams

    average mass of an asteroid = is between 10^15 to 10^17 grams

    at best?

    disadvantage in leverage = 10^8

    to try to put in human-scaled terms...

    Asian elephant = 4.98 * 10^6

    that's as if asking about the gravitational tug of a fly upon an elephant

    and it is not simply making it move but all the energy stored up in the planet's rotation... honking huge flywheel/gyroscope... I have zero clue as to formula to calc that kinetic energy...

    but to adjust planet's spin, you could impact ice chunks at the equator which are individually oriented upon a vector in direct opposition to the direction of rotation...

    quadruple function =

    reduce spin

    volatize water into H2 and O2 as temporary beginning atmosphere

    inject thermal energy to raise surface temperature in locality of impact

    ...and you could sell tickets to jaded 'n foolhardy tourists who will be allowed no closer than 100 kilometers to the point of impact only after signing legal forms that confirm they are suicidally inclined looking for a once-in-a-lifetime thrill of being in midst of an earthquake slash hurricane

    1565:

    oooopsie

    I forgot mentioning the carving out of a river wrapping completely around the equator

    1566:

    Re: 'well, there goes my mellow'

    Get another booster shot as soon as you're able. Preferably - over the long haul - try to get a mix of the different vaccines because there's a new variant out and while it's even more immune evasive people who've had different vaccines seem to fare better.

    https://www.idsociety.org/covid-19-real-time-learning-network/diagnostics/covid-19-variant-update/#/+/0/publishedDate_na_dt/desc/

    Behavioral impact ... until someone provides data from across a number of different countries/cultures, I'm not so sure that the SARS-COV2 virus is responsible for the upswing in irrational and violent behavior in certain Western countries. My take is that COVID was a convenient excuse for some pols. If there's anyone here from New Zealand, maybe you can provide some info re: attitudinal/behavioral changes among the populace. Last I read Kiwis managed things-COVID sanely.

    Greg -

    COVID impact on healthcare providers was and still is pretty bad - lots of burnout/quitting/early retirement. How's the funding for medical schools over in the UK?

    1567:

    Last I read Kiwis managed things-COVID sanely.

    But got caught in the spillover from other places. Being a small country means not having purely local media, and it's also very cheap to run a disinfo campaign that adds an extra 5M targets to the other 500M you really want.

    Aotearoa had crazed antivaxxers roaming the streets yelling at people and starting fights. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Wellington_protest

    Which also led to crazed antivaxx political parties who thankfully did not get elected recently, but OTOH the kiwi version of a far right looney government did. It's a coalition between Winston First (classic populist), libertarians (ACT) and business people doing business things (National).

    The new government has broadened the inquiry from "how best to deal with pandemics" to include "how have the mean nasty evil villanous world government chemtrails jewish space lasers lizard people tormented you?" with predictable results.

    Australia also did covid fairly well, but less so than Aotearoa and with a faster "return to normal". Few people are now isolating when infected, or even testing, let alone divulging to others when they're infectious.

    One country is still doing weekly stats: https://www.tewhatuora.govt.nz/our-health-system/data-and-statistics/covid-19-data/covid-19-current-cases/

    NSW is... different: https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/data-and-statistics

    1568:

    "Aotearoa had crazed antivaxxers roaming the streets yelling at people and starting fights"

    Including (I am not making this up) some waving pro-Trump banners, and apparently claiming that Trump, who is neither a citizen of nor resident in Aotearoa (and most of us like it like that), won the immediate preceding election.

    It should also be noted that the nearby supermarkets noted a marked uptick in shoplifting during the occupation, as well as some other incidents of outright theft.

    JHomes

    1569:

    The question is this: given a moonless Earth-sized planet that has a Uranus-scale axial tilt, if you could maneuver a large asteroid into polar orbit around it, would the pull of the asteroid perpendicular to the planet's axial tilt decrease the planet's axial tilt to something more terrestrial?

    That's an interesting question. I'm not sure I have good answers but I like the question.

    The physics problem that I see is that axial spin is not very strongly coupled to the outside universe; planets are large and massive, and tend to stay spinning for billions of years.

    But maybe there's a dodge around that? We've got a scenario where asteroids can be moved, presumably by gravity tractor arrays, and it's straightforward to do the same thing at one more remove. How do you feel about accepting the plane of planetary rotation and instead changing the plane of orbit?

    This takes stupidly huge amounts of delta-v but, again, planet.

    You might be able to reduce the time required by having a dramatic slingshot encounter with another planet whose final orbit you don't really care about.

    1570:

    We can expect better from the microbiology and virology and immunology lab specialists and the handful of consultants who deal with this stuff, but they're not generally asked for their advice on things like air filtration in school classrooms.

    Even if they were asked, I doubt the right-wingers running most education systems in Canada (provincial responsibility) would pay attention to it. (My province is run by the brother of Toronto's crack-using mayor, who was popular enough despite people knowing what he was like that he got re-elected. Which should have been a warning that voters are not rational actors.)

    One of my nieces bought a HEPA filter for her classroom that she was ordered to stop using by the school admin because a student claimed that the filter was too noisy to hear the teacher properly. (Excuse for poor marks — girl was too busy talking to listen.) I'd have dug in my heels, but my niece has a hard time standing up for herself.

    For the record, a classroom at my school that read 100 ppm CO2 higher than outside in 2018 (I tested it for the teacher so she had evidence that a repair was necessary) still hasn't had the ventilation repaired.

    1571:

    That's an interesting question. I'm not sure I have good answers but I like the question.

    Thanks!

    For what it's worth, my guess is that the question basically becomes synchronizing linked gyros that are spinning perpendicular to each other. One gyro is the planet, one gyro is the orbiting asteroid, and they're linked by gravity and a shared center of mass. You'd think that both gyros would seek one of three minimum energy states: collision, asteroid exits orbit, or gyros tilt until they're spinning in parallel. Assuming the last state is achieved, how far has the planet's axis tilted, and how long did it take?

    Problem is, "synchronizing gyrocompasses" is a common shipping problem that may be on a seamanship test, so Googling syncing gyros isn't very useful that I saw. That's why I asked it here.

    The other reason is that the Moon is thought to stabilize Earth's axial tilt to a few degrees, and Mars, with its smaller moons, wobbles more.

    Note that this is basically "a god terraforms on a shoestring by tugging asteroids around" kind of question, so I'm assuming that, even if it works, it will take quite a long time; millions of years, possibly billions.

    1572:

    ooops I misread it as a moon sized planet not a planet w/o a moon

    starting with the estimated rate for our Earth-Moon "mini-solar-system" slowing earth's rotation at a rate that "one day" (single rotation) gains 1.8 milliseconds every Century... that's 18 seconds per mega-year...

    but if we swap an Earth sized mass for the Moon in the same orbit there'd be a 80-fold braking action since relative masses of Earth-Moon ==> 80:1

    whereas you want to rely upon a lesser mass the braking rate would be divided not multiplied... so a mass a millionth of the Moon would take about a trillion years to add 18 seconds to day length duration...

    { best of all? I am pontificating based upon an incomplete grasp of the math and utter ignorance of planetary scaled gyroscope braking }

    1573:

    Charlie @ 1559
    Maybe this also helps to explain why everything is going-to-hell-in-a-handbag, especially in those nations with righwing ( "We've had enough of experts" ) misgovernments?
    Whihc leads to the question - Even amongst developed nations, how well or badly are the non-Anglos doing with this problem?
    How hard did C-19 actually hit, both long & short-term ... nations like Russia, China, France, Italy, all of S America etc, etc??

    SFR @ 1566
    Yes
    Except NZ seems to have deliberately thrown sanity away at their most recent election.

    1574:

    but this is the first I've heard of covid-induced stillbirths... OMG... shitstorm

    You can't have a viable pregnancy without a working placenta.

    A placenta is a huge reticulated mass of blood vessels that works its way into the uterine lining, itself another huge reticulated mass of blood vessels, and acts as a gas/nutrient exchange surface.

    That thing about COVID19 causing an inflammatory reaction in blood vessels? It hits the uterine lining and placenta as well.

    (I'm sure you'd also heard about COVID19 causing erectile dysfunction in some cases: yep, big mass of blood vessels ...)

    1575:

    Thinking about this, I get the feeling that you don't want your new moon in a polar orbit as the effects from each half of the orbit would cancel out. You want to start it out in something like a 45 degree inclination so the pull on the equatorial bulge is always in the same direction, eg moon over the southern hemisphere of the planet and above the ecliptic is acting on the ecliptic zenith part of the bulge and pulling it south, moon over the northern hemisphere and below the ecliptic tugging the nadir bulge north. Also note that while your new moon is trying to act on the axial tilt of the planet, the planet is trying to drag the moon into an equatorial orbit (the moons of Uranus are pretty much equatorial to the planet) so you'll need to be making regular adjustments to the moons orbit.

    1576:

    The question is this: given a moonless Earth-sized planet that has a Uranus-scale axial tilt, if you could maneuver a large asteroid into polar orbit around it, would the pull of the asteroid perpendicular to the planet's axial tilt decrease the planet's axial tilt to something more terrestrial?

    Isn't a body in polar orbit by definition in line with the axis rather than perpendicular to it?

    1577:

    (I'm sure you'd also heard about COVID19 causing erectile dysfunction in some cases: yep, big mass of blood vessels ...)

    Of course. I had to pull the mental emergency brake almost immediately after reading this as my mind started to quickly work on skits for late night TV talk shows.

    1578:

    If I have a planet sized object zipping around in order to change the orientation of another planet, then you’d better believe I care about the eventual orbit of the zippier-planet. I really don’t want it looping around to reappear a few hundred years later, barreling straight for my home world.

    1579:

    Thus setting up Phil Farmer's Riverworld series.

    1580:

    Planet whose orbit you don't care about? So, maybe Venus (see Velikovsky) or Mongo (or the Planet Porno)?

    1581:

    Yep.

    I will say that my last coherent thought last night was “Tides!”

    Gyroscopes are the wrong model, because planets aren’t rigid. The gravitational energy in this scenario would mostly go into warping the planet’s crust, water, and atmosphere, all of which will respond more quickly than will its axial rotation.

    Oh well.

    1582:

    Maybe this also helps to explain why everything is going-to-hell-in-a-handbag, especially in those nations with righwing ( "We've had enough of experts" ) misgovernments?

    I'm on a couple of polling panels, and I get regular polls concerning voting intentions and the like. One of the standard question is about who provincial governments should listen to. The two answers answers are (paraphrasing) "issues are complicated so government should listen to experts" and "special interests have too much influence so governments should follow common sense".

    Which is rather interesting given that the last conservative government called its dismantling of the public service "The Common Sense Revolution".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Sense_Revolution

    I suspect that "common sense" acquired a political connotation a generation ago that it still has, at least with right-wing voters.

    I also think that in 2025 Canada will elect a populist right-wing government. I don't like it, but I think it will happen.

    1583:

    That raises the question of whether a collision would more quickly give the required result. Sure, there's condensing and cooling time, but compared to gravity tugs that might be a very quick process. Although in both cases the answer is measured in millions of years so I don't think current meatsacks have anything to worry about in that regard.

    1584:

    geeze... it's my shtitch to inflict new nightmares upon the populace... stay in your lane, dude... write best selling novels as you fend off literary groupies and Hollywood movie moguls throwing bushels of dollars at you to sign on the bottom line

    1 US bushel = 35.239072 liters

    USD$1*10^6 in 100s = 11.29559011 liters

    you ought expect to find about 3.2 megabucks in each Hollywood-sourced bushel

    given that long covid lingers... plus an already low birthrate in many western democracies (SKorea is down to ~0.81 births per woman)... and if nothing changes about about the stillbirths... and if completing a successful pregnancy worsens in odds rather being a short term down turn...

    ...ooooooooooooooh shit

    { sound of very large light bulb firing up over my head }

    abortion is going to be outlawed

    sex ed to prevent teenage pregnancy will be defunded

    condom manufacturers will be forced by governments on the down low to produce a substandard product with a much higher failure rate

    1585:

    hmmm... gonna havta to revise impact planning to carve out deep, deep canyons into bedrock... and lots 'n lots of snaky twisting...

    sure... why not?

    1586:

    I suppose I'm just wasting bandwidth to suggest more generous parental leave and affordable childcare would go further towards a goal of more children than establishing "Gilead". The usual suspects are unlikely to have read Mark Twain's relevangt quote on these matters "You can catch more flies with honey than you can with vinegar"

    1587:

    I suppose I'm just wasting bandwidth to suggest more generous parental leave and affordable childcare would go further towards a goal of more children than establishing "Gilead".

    The usual suspects who view The Handmaid's Tale as an instruction manual don't really care about children. That's a convenient excuse, but they've demonstrated time and again that what they really care about is power over women.

    The usual suspects are unlikely to have read Mark Twain's relevangt quote on these matters "You can catch more flies with honey than you can with vinegar"

    Actually, balsamic vinegar catches more flies than honey. So does rotting meat. Which really makes me wonder about that saying…

    1588:

    you are being rational and demonstrating mercy... please stop

    the ruling elite's longer term concerns is ensuring a growing population in order to ensure sufficiency of consumption at retail level and availability of low cost biologically-based semi-programmable drones ("employees")

    prior to covid, in 2019 the birth rate in US was 1.71 births per woman

    without immigration we'd be enduring negative population growth... and in less than 20Y, real estate prices would implode due to glut of houses and apartment buildings... banks and related financial services would endure a downturn... blah blah blah...

    ...severe, prolonged depression by 2050

    1589:

    Rbt Prior
    We have our own version of that "Common Sense" bollocks - it's called "new Conservatism" & a couple of other labels, depending on how-actually-fascist you are ....
    Also, @ 1587: what they really care about is power over women. - Nothing new there, of course - it's a carry-over from that misogynistic bastard Saul of Tarsus.
    See also "Epistles to Timothy" which are probably the worst ... which ten carry over into "the recital" of course.

    Howard NYC @ 1588
    I'm already in a "prolonged depression ...
    How seriously should we take the semi-official complaints/threats from Russia that they are ALREADY "at war" with NATO?
    I DO HOPE they are "just" rabble-rousing, or are they going to do something even more stupid?

    1590:

    it's a carry-over from that misogynistic bastard Saul of Tarsus.

    You seem to be implying that "keeping them in their place" is the result of Abrahamic (more specifically Christian) religion.

    This treatment of women is an attribute of most of the world's population throughout virtually all of the history we can find.

    Christians just took the norms around them and made it a part of their faith system. Like most religions around the world.

    1591:

    The commonality between the Abrahamic "women's hair is disgusting" dress codes is kind of fun that way, especially when my area also has Hindu women running round often wearing a theoretical hair covering but also waving bits of midriff skin at the world. And then there's the "cultural variations" from technically hair covered to just the eyes visible and sometimes those are veiled. Even when driving, although there doesn't seem to be any correllation between that and how terrible the driver is, that seems to be more generic (people from India, for example, often view the road guidelines* as even more irrelevant than the average man in a jacked up ute does).

    (* some countries have road rules, we have helpful suggestions from the ministry for promoting private cars)

    1592:

    The gravitational energy in this scenario would mostly go into warping the planet’s crust, water, and atmosphere, all of which will respond more quickly than will its axial rotation.

    That's a good thing if we're talking Venus-like, because that's how you end up cracking the crust and hopefully stirring stuff in the upper mantle up enough to kick off convection and tectonic subduction, which you need if you want to establish and sustain a deep carbon cycle. I think.

    1593:

    That proposal would involve spending money on women, and giving them more social autonomy, which is a big no-no to the pale patriarchal kleptocrat class: the Project 2025 and Heritage Foundation people seem to think that giving women the right to vote was a mistake, and they need to be pushed right back to being chattel (i.e. talking property with barely more rights than slaves or livestock). So you're more likely to see a US version of Romania's Decree 770 regime, followed in due course by a state orphanage to penal plantation pipeline.

    1594:

    The "Handmaid's Tale is an instruction manual" types do want children, but they want lots of White, lower-class children who will form the armies that will conquer the world for the upper-class Jeebus-worshippers and stuff. They're easily classifiable psychologically, but really complicated in terms of their urges. The children don't need to be taken care of, particularly, just properly trained and able to carry a gun or operate a drone... and the people who want this don't have a clue about real tactics or strategy, or about the economy, and what they understand about demographics... Jesus wept!

    1595:

    "...or are they going to do something even more stupid?"

    I suspect that has a lot to do with who gets elected here in the U.S. in November.

    1596:

    The usual suspects really need to try a consensual relationship... experience the entire woman. But that would require self-affirmation based on their own resources rather than relative position*.

    *Consider right wing reactionaries as a bent back to nature thing, they wish to give voice to their inner alpha primate.

    1597:

    Sorry, I should expand on this a little more. There are plenty of conservatives who believe that the removal of communism has changed Russia completely. My own thinking is that regardless of whether a bear is capitalist or communist, it is first and foremost a bear, with a bear's urges and personality... Russia will be a totalitarian state with ugly impulses until something far more profound than a switch from communism to capitalism occurs.

    1598:

    Russia will be a totalitarian state with ugly impulses until something far more profound than a switch from communism to capitalism occurs.

    Just like when management brings in Agile to clean up IT. My wife has worked at multiple companies. All are doing Agile. Or so they say. All have taken the Agile labels and attached them to the past process with a few cosmetic tweaks around the edges.

    1599:

    Sounds about right, usually, the old methods have to comprehensively soil the bedding before they're reconsidered.

    1600:

    It’s worth noting that the communists largely kept the Tsarist military and espionage structures when they took over. I’d guess that’s one big reason for the cultural continuity of these structures from the Tsar’s time until now.

    Perhaps it’s sort of the Russian version of the Chinese Mandate of Heaven, which was promulgated to encourage conquering authoritarians to leave the Chinese bureaucracy largely intact after they’d deposed the emperor.

    1601:

    Agile - yeah, the client/management has changed their mind again, and we'll go with that, but still maintain the original timeline that we were handed a year ago, with no extensions or additional money.

    1602:

    oh yeah, that...

    "make things better but don't change anything"

    every time there was an effort at actually planning any large IT redesign at various megacorps, everyone cheered and then nobody cooperated due to fears of "things changing"

    cliches include: dreams of a better design of the lipstick on the (corporate) pig, etc

    ask your wife if there was ever a successful inventorying of all IT assets for all departments... hardware, purchased software, DIY utilities, data sources, subscriptions, warranties, contracts, et al... none of the sites I worked ever had a fully completed inventory no matter how many nerds they threw at the effort

    1603:

    It’s worth noting that the communists largely kept the Tsarist military and espionage structures when they took over. I’d guess that’s one big reason for the cultural continuity of these structures from the Tsar’s time until now.

    There is a school of thought that the Russian counter-revolution took place between 1922 and 1926, and was essentially completed when Stalin took power after Lenin's death. (Stalin of course purged the last remaining true believers in revolution, and kept on those "communists" in name only who were sufficiently pragmatist to work with the bureaucracy that had been re-colonized by former Imperial bureaucrats.)

    1604:

    Right, the period when women's equality, and sexual liberation came to the fore, and were crushed.

    1605:

    Re: 'counter-revolution ... former Imperial bureaucrats'

    Just looked up what the tsarist bureaucracy looked like - apparently pretty thin and lagging behind the European countries who were growing economically thanks to industrialization which in turn resulted in fairly large social changes as well as much more spending on bureaucracy*. In an effort to catch up with other European countries Catherine the Great increased the bureaucracy. She also instituted guaranteed promotions to make bureaucracy an appealing career choice, i.e., a new nobility. So although it might have been called a bureaucracy in Russia in reality it was the same-old, same-old. I wonder how common this is across cultures and whether any culture ever fully said goodbye to their past when they 'modernize'.

    *Did not expect to read that bureaucracy could benefit economies - probably more likely that industrialization created/meant a more diverse range and number of industries therefore you'd need more pencil pushers to keep tabs on everything (chicken-and-egg scenario).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsarist_bureaucracy

    1606:

    ask your wife if there was ever a successful inventorying of all IT assets for all departments

    A major company operating world wide with over 100K employees. Under 11 or 13 Vice Presidents.

    Surely you jest.

    1607:

    there was a deep dive done on the Trans-Siberian Railway, which laid out the staggering numbers of flawed policies as well as the resistance to change by Russian bureaucrats

    so entangled a mess that it was deemed impossible to build so much as even a single forge which would manufacture decent enough rail at any pace... so Russia bought almost all the sections of rail from the French and then had 'em all shipped in...

    WTF...!?

    book doesn't mention the precise added costs but easily tripled the project's final total

    To the Edge of the World: The Story of the Trans-Siberian Railway

    Christian Wolmar

    1608:

    not paperclips...

    critical infrastructure

    exposure to data theft

    need to replace in midst of a disaster ("9/11", earthquake, hurricane, etc)

    need to reduce duplicated outlays

    ...etc

    lots 'n lots of reasons but no major company will admit they are clueless

    1609:

    ...which you need if you want to establish and sustain a deep carbon cycle.

    i reckon u probably need liquid water for plate tectonics, and i suppose there could be loads in venus's mantle like there is in earth's but it sounds like it could have cooked off a lot of its hydrogen somehow

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geodynamics_of_Venus

    1610:

    Russia will be a totalitarian state with ugly impulses until something far more profound than a switch from communism to capitalism occurs.

    I remember seeing a lot of talking heads conflating "capitalism" and "democracy" after the Berlin Wall fell.

    Even back then I knew enough people from South America to know that democracies were only allowed elections if the results were acceptable to those running a certain great power — and only as long as the locals didn't interfere with that great power's corporations…

    1611:

    lots 'n lots of reasons but no major company will admit they are clueless

    You're off the edge of the reality of many companies. Nothing is perfect but operations at hers was on top of such things. Cafeteria scheduling, not so much.

    1612:

    That's a good thing if we're talking Venus-like, because that's how you end up cracking the crust and hopefully stirring stuff in the upper mantle up enough to kick off convection and tectonic subduction, which you need if you want to establish and sustain a deep carbon cycle. I think.

    Adrian’s right about current geophysics thinking. Water in the crust and mantle lower the melting points of rocks. Venus’ oceans got cooked off, the water got broken down by sunlight, and that’s where it is now. It is possible to orbit a moon around Venus, but it will pull on the atmosphere, not spin up the planet.

    My primitive understanding of plate tectonics is that it’s like a pot of stew. If it’s too hot and runny, it just churns, which is where Venus is now. If it’s too cold, it crusts over on top and occasionally boils through and sprays stuff, which is where Mars is. Plate tectonics happens I the middle, when the crust and mantle are saturated with water. The top cysts up, but it’s also thin enough that the churning glop below the crust can crack it and pull it under. In the life cycle of a water-bearing planet, plate tectonics is the mature intermediate phase. Earth was too hot for plate tectonics for several billion years. It will have active plates for another few hundred million years, then the core will get too cold, tectonics will grind to a halt, the carbon cycle will break down, and microbes will be the last to die.

    1613:

    Same happened with the French revolution before it -- early feminist flowering, abruptly cut short by the guillotining of Olympe de Gouges (which ushered in the broader Terror). And then that male chauvanist pig Napoleon declared himself emperor and banned women from wearing trousers, and a lot of other freedoms besides, because ... well, male authoritarian dictator's gonna dictate authoritarian-ishly, right?

    1614:

    it sounds like it could have cooked off a lot of its hydrogen somehow

    True, but also Venus didn't have an early Theia-class impact during the Late Heavy Bombardment to stir up the core and inner mantle? So it's possible only the hydrogen in the surface layers got cooked off. (We just don't know enough about Venus's deep structure.)

    1615:

    There’s some thought that Venus did have plate tectonics, but lost it: https://www.brown.edu/news/2023-10-26/venus-plate-tectonics

    Given that its surface temperature is hot enough to melt lead, I suppose it’s possible that the surface rocks are too soft to act like plates. The lack of craters and weird surface features do suggest something is going on.

    One thing other simulations suggest is that Venus’ thick atmosphere acts as a tidal brake through friction against the surface. The idea is that Venus may have once had a much shorter day, but tidal friction powered by the suns gravity slowed it down, enabling it to get hotter and hotter.

    If this is true, a Theia-style collision might have helped, not by cracking it open, but by blowing off most of its atmosphere. With a thinner atmosphere, it might have a shorter day and be a lot cooler due to lack of insulation and less tidal friction.

    1616:

    Charlie @ 1613
    Also ...let's not forget that Boney also undid one of the other few good ideas of the revolution .. he re-instituted slavery.
    Which is a REALLY GOOD reason why Alexandre Dumas hated Boney ...

    1617:

    Since we're wildly off topic anyway, let me share this lovely verse that some algorithm found for me. It's both topical and a throwback to the memes of our grandparents' times, and it surprised me how many of my friends laughed at it.

    I used to be quite fond of Twitter
    But now I think maybe I'll quit
    Elon took over the platform
    And now it's a big pile of shaving cream
    Be nice and clean...

    1618:

    I guess I figured out the problem with logging in.

    I made it to San Antonio TX. Weather forecast is not looking too good for Monday, but that's the breaks. Gonna' set up for it anyway and get whatever I can.

    Anyway, I've got today for a rest day.

    1620:

    I have the feeling that this cartoon from 1963 is going to be prescient of tomorrow's events. Where I live, anyway.

    https://www.gocomics.com/peanuts/1963/07/20

    Good grief. And rats.

    1621:

    For the 1999 total eclipse in the UK we were clouded over, but I was watching from a reasonable elevated position in West Devon and we could see a long way down into Cornwall. I remember seeing the huge dark shadow rushing towards us, followed by the trailing edge. Maybe not as good as seeing it in a clear sky but still pretty impressive. There's an image taken from Mir about 90 seconds after we got daylight back that APOD runs every now and again.

    1622:

    We had a clear sky but only a partial in the Outer Hebrides. That was enough to feel things getting cold during the eclipse..

    1623:

    For the 1999 total eclipse in the UK we were clouded over,

    For the 2017 one in the US my wife and I managed to get to a newly opened but not fully finished (or apparently well known) public park a bit east of Columbia South Carolina. Around 50 to 100 people, rest rooms, a pavilion, picnic tables, open fields.

    Clear skys.

    It was great.

    The 8 hour drive home in traffic was a bit much.

    1624:

    Charlie

    It seems you can earn some extra money.

    I just read where a "bed" rental for attendees of Taylor Swift's concert in Edinburgh is currently going for over £400. I bet the ask will get more as it gets closer to the concert date.

    I'm sure you want to bring strangers (Swifties) into your house for a few nights.

    I didn't track down just what "bed" meant in terms of what they got for the money. Food? Shower?

    1625:

    JReynolds @ 1620:

    I have the feeling that this cartoon from 1963 is going to be prescient of tomorrow's events. Where I live, anyway.

    https://www.gocomics.com/peanuts/1963/07/20

    Good grief. And rats.

    I hope it won't be QUITE that bad

    1626:

    Looks like you should have gone to Maine instead of Texas. Clouds are forecast along most of the path.

    1627:

    In the last week the forecast here has shifted from cloudy with rain to sunny to partly cloudy to mainly cloudy. I'll be trying to see it anyway but don't have high hopes it'll be clear at totality. Every major astronomical event I've tried to see since a lunar eclipse in the 80s has been obscured by cloud.

    1628:

    I'm going to make a pin hole box with my iPhone mounted on it. If the clouds (iffy) break I'll be able to use my watch to take photos of the image in the box.

    1629:

    When I saw my first partial solar eclipse in 1959 the class teacher gave everyone a piece of blotting paper with a pinhole in it. We watched the eclipse through the pinhole. It worked. Photos of the mottled shade under trees and bushes which act llkje a pinhole camera can also be good.

    1630:

    David L @ 1623:

    "For the 1999 total eclipse in the UK we were clouded over,"

    For the 2017 one in the US my wife and I managed to get to a newly opened but not fully finished (or apparently well known) public park a bit east of Columbia South Carolina. Around 50 to 100 people, rest rooms, a pavilion, picnic tables, open fields.

    Clear skys.

    It was great.

    The 8 hour drive home in traffic was a bit much.

    The drive home from Hopkinsville KY in 2017 wasn't that bad. Most of the traffic had dissapated by the time I had my cameras packed up. Traffic on I-24 & I-40 was no worse than any other time I've had to drive through Nashville.

    I think I've mentioned the unusual weather forecast for that day - "Severe Clear" - something I've never seen before or since.

    I had one eclipse rained out in 1980. I understand Greensboro, NC got a glimpse of it. Broken clouds cleared just enough.

    One I've been thinking about lately is the 1970 eclipse that crossed eastern NC. The path of totality crossed over Kinston & Greenville, NC. I was young, single ... owned a motorcycle and gasoline was $0.25/gallon. It was only about 90 miles or so from my parents house.

    I just can't figure out what kept me from going down to see it?

    -+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+

    I'm glad I timed this trip to give me this rest day before E-Day. I had trouble sleeping last night & have had a Loooong nap today.

    Overcast this morning, but I just went outside to have a look. It's bright & sunny now with scattered clouds. Forecast is still for significant overcast tomorrow so we'll have to see ...

    Awake now, so I'm going to have a last practice assembling my kit this afternoon & make sure I'm ready.

    -+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+

    According to the Texas A&M's Extension Service there are over a million horses here in Texas. At least half** of them were out on the Interstate Highway as I was trying to get here on Saturday.

    ** I'll leave it to your collective imaginations which half was in the driver's seat. What's the male equivalent of a Karen?

    -+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+

    In response to the GQP proposal to rename Washington, DC's Dulles Airport for Trumpolini, House Democrats have suggested renaming the federal prison in Miami, FL after him.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democrats-trump-bill-rename-miami-prison/

    1631:

    Just saw this on spaceweather.com (a fun site):

    Solar eclipses make their own weather--starting with the temperature. How much the temperature falls depends on the humidity. Dry environments could see a drop of 8 to 14 degrees, less so if it’s humid. According to NASA, an eclipse in Zambia on June 21, 2001, reduced the temperature nearly 15 degrees.

    The reduction in temperature can make clouds disappear. Satellites observing eclipses from Earth orbit have detected many examples. A 10-year study just published in Nature found that cumulus clouds begin dissipating when a mere 15 percent of the sun is covered. In some cases, clouds didn’t start to return until 50 minutes after maximum eclipse.

    This could be good news for eclipse chasers in Mexico and Texas, where widespread cloudcover is expected on April 8th. The eclipse itself might help clear the sky. Stay tuned!

    1632:

    Re: 'Solar eclipses ... Dry environments could see a drop of 8 to 14 degrees, less so if it’s humid.'

    We've had some pretty wintery weather the past week so a drop in temp will probably feel normal. The mid-day dark, not so much. Looking forward to reading studies on how solar eclipses affect various animals.

    Next month (mid-May) the cicadas will be the major headline - billions are expected to emerge and hang around for about a month. Good eating for several bird species, rodents too.

    1633:

    ...shave every day

    and you'll always be keen...

    1634:

    ...flat surface

    for an extra $50 they'd be granted toilet privileges...

    really weird distortions to local economies...verging on trade war

    "...Taylor Swift struck a deal with Singapore not to perform in any other Southeast Asian country. Singapore's exclusive deal with Taylor Swift sparks complaints from Southeast Asian countries, depriving them of tourism opportunities. ..."

    https://archive.ph/DrOqp

    or

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/entertainment/english/music/news/taylor-swift-struck-a-deal-with-singapore-not-to-perform-in-any-other-southeast-asian-country/articleshow/108249603.cms

    1635:

    Next month (mid-May) the cicadas will be the major headline - billions are expected to emerge and hang around for about a month. Good eating for several bird species, rodents too.

    And humans, since taboo-breaking food is very Laundry:

    https://health.osu.edu/wellness/exercise-and-nutrition/cooking-cicadas

    Glibber glibber crunch crunch meep! Moar?

    1636:

    Burma Shave?

    The right era, but no. It's to the tune of the novelty song Shaving Cream by Benny Bell, from 1946. It was re-discovered by Doctor Demento a few decades later, so people who don't remember WWII knowing it isn't all that strange.

    1637:

    Re: 'Moar'

    Looking forward to your cicada dinner review! At some point I expect different regions to start advertising how their cicadas are much tastier and more nutritious than cicadas from other regions. If eating cicadas ever goes mainstream, would these critters be commercially 'farmable'?

    BTW - here's the NASA link for today's live broadcast of the solar eclipse. Starts in about 3 hours.

    '2024 Total Solar Eclipse: Through the Eyes of NASA (Official Broadcast)'

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MJY_ptQW1o

    1638:

    I’m not in the path of the swarm, here in San Diego, so no reviews from me!

    Perhaps someone should fanfic a story about ghouls coming out to feas on the cicadas. And possibly share them with the entomologists who are studying them.

    1639:

    Up-thread, people, including Charlie, were talking about Long Covid, right?
    News article on results recently in & ideas for long-term study - BBC news
    Thoughts?

    1640:

    I’m not in the path of the swarm, here in San Diego, so no reviews from me!

    It is more of a midwest thing this year.

    It will be big as there are two swarms at one time. On I think 13 and 17 year cycles. So they only swarm in the same year every (13x17) 221 years.

    Back in the later 80s there was a swarm across Pennsylvania and nearby states. My wife and I drove across the state. SciFi screeching noise for 4 or 5 hours even with windows rolled up. Just from those in the trees along side of the PA Turnpike. It was LOUD.

    1641:

    The idea of zombies swarming like cicadas on a prime-number year cycle springs to mind. Everyone knows they're coming and when, the stores are filled with anti-zombie body armour and barbed-wire-wrapped baseball bats and recycled Halloween decorations, the talking heads on the TV explain in detail how to fortify your home on a budget, conspiracy theorists blame chemtrails for the zombies in the first place and college ball games are rescheduled to avoid expected localised outbreaks.

    The echoing sound of "Braiiiins, braiiiins" at dusk is deafening.

    1642:

    That is an excellent idea! (Even though I detest the standard "zombie apocalypse" narrative.)

    1643:

    I’ve been told that I’m a naive realist, but wouldn’t universal cremation stop this kind of thing? Of course, if zombie ashes turn into wraiths every prime- numbered year, that would be even worse.

    Since I’m on a ghoul kick, I’ll add my weak-sauce version of the Tunnels to the Vale of Pnath and other Jinn homes open on various prime-numbered years.

    1644:

    More naive realism: how about 17 year Covid?

    Science adjacent stuff: what cicadas are doing is called predator satiation. If the all emerge at once and engage in a titanic orgy, more of their eggs survive t make the next generation than if they emerge every year and predators adapt t hunting them every year.

    So it’s not clear why zombies would emerge every seventeen years, only to shamble and die. Who’s eating them every year, the Holy Spirit?

    But what if zombies were the result of an infect that was highly infectious and rapidly lethal while it was infectious, but which lay dormant in every infected person for 17 years before rapidly proliferating and becoming infectious and lethal in a matter of weeks?

    And why not just postulate a more ordinary pandemic that evolves to flare at long intervals? That way no one has an immune response to it (especially if it’s a coronavirus-like thing where everyone normally loses immunity without exposure), and it finds lots of new hits every time it flares, even if it is highly lethal?

    1645:

    sigh Zombies. The real weapon, as anyone not watching movies, is salt. The stores will be out of large boxes of kosher salt, though, and the winter before, the hardware stores sold out of ice-melting salt.

    1646:

    And the government will have a bunch of biplanes spraying salt water on them as they emerge.

    1647:

    The reduction in temperature can make clouds disappear. Satellites observing eclipses from Earth orbit have detected many examples. A 10-year study just published in Nature found that cumulus clouds begin dissipating when a mere 15 percent of the sun is covered. In some cases, clouds didn’t start to return until 50 minutes after maximum eclipse.

    I managed to see the eclipse yesterday. Clouds started to clear an hour before, reappeared right at totality :-( then it cleared up and is still clear now — so likely not the eclipse effect. (They also looked like stratocumulus or altocumulus, while IIRC the clearing effect applies to lower clouds).

    In a way I was lucky it was solidly cloudy in the morning with predictions for solid cloud all day, as I think that kept some people from heading to the path of totality. I left early and carpooled with a friend, and we got to Burlington about 9 AM and walked to Hamilton along the waterfront (thus avoiding the bridges over the harbour and the QEW). Getting home took longer, as it was rush hour anyway and the QEW was also backed up all the way from Niagara Falls, but because we'd parked in Burlington we could take regular streets back which was slow but not unusually so, as the eclipse traffic was all on the QEW.

    So yeah, had a wonderful day. The only thing we missed was we were too close to busy roads and construction to hear any changes in animal behaviour (because no animals). Despite thin clouds we saw the corona and the 360° sunset. Only 92 seconds of totality, but if we'd headed further to Niagara Falls (3.5 minutes) we'd have (a) been stuck in traffic, and (b) had clouds at totality so Im calling the day a win.

    1648:

    I managed to see the eclipse yesterday. Clouds started to clear an hour before, reappeared right at totality :-(

    I didn't get totality, by hundreds of miles; in my part of the Pacific Northwest it was solid cloud cover for the whole thing. With my eclipse sunglasses from 2017 I was intermittently able to see that, yeah, the sun had a bite taken out of it - and then the sun would disappear entirely behind thicker clouds.

    Relevant link, the Peanuts comic strip for July 20th, 1963.

    (As an irrelevant link, xkcd's "Machine" can be distracting and a time sink. Randall Munroe knows his audience.)

    1649:

    I didn't get totality, by hundreds of miles; in my part of the Pacific Northwest it was solid cloud cover for the whole thing.

    I didn't either. But we had a nice sunny day. My used banker's box pin hole setup allowed us to see it well. About 80% at max.

    I had it set up so I could use my iPhone camera but the default image processing didn't like the very bright dot and wound up fuzzing it. About 18" from the sheet of paper at the bottom of the box. I was able to pull the iPhone back about another 6" to 12" and got better (sharper) pics. (iPhone 13 pro if anyone cares.)

    I hope JohnS got some good pics. A lot of folks in Texas posted sharp pics as the cloud cover seems to have cleared in many areas there.

    Now do I go to Spain next year? My wife and I have a big itch to travel after 4 years of "not".

    1650:

    Mr. Tim @ 1631:

    Just saw this on spaceweather.com (a fun site):

    Solar eclipses make their own weather--starting with the temperature. How much the temperature falls depends on the humidity. Dry environments could see a drop of 8 to 14 degrees, less so if it’s humid. According to NASA, an eclipse in Zambia on June 21, 2001, reduced the temperature nearly 15 degrees.

    The reduction in temperature can make clouds disappear. Satellites observing eclipses from Earth orbit have detected many examples. A 10-year study just published in Nature found that cumulus clouds begin dissipating when a mere 15 percent of the sun is covered. In some cases, clouds didn’t start to return until 50 minutes after maximum eclipse.

    This could be good news for eclipse chasers in Mexico and Texas, where widespread cloudcover is expected on April 8th. The eclipse itself might help clear the sky. Stay tuned!

    Didn't dissipate any cloud cover, but we definitely got the temperature drop.

    It was overcast - two layers of broken clouds, so we got a few instances when it became visible when gaps in the two layers coincided. The upper layer was thinner, so you could sometimes see the eclipse through the clouds.

    I still managed to get a few photos - half a dozen of the totality using my IR converted Camera. The star tracker worked a treat, so every time the clouds did open up the sun was right there in my main camera's field of view.

    Most of the enjoyment from this trip is from the people I meet & talk to along the way. You have to remember not to get all wrapped around the axle over the photography, 'cause sometimes the photography just ain't gonna' work.

    After totality there was never a time when breaks in the two cloud layers coincided, so I didn't see any part of the eclipse AFTER totality.

    A storm system moved in later, but I got back to San Antonio before the storms hit.

    I'm taking today as another rest day before starting back home tomorrow.

    1651:

    Robert Prior @ 1647:

    I managed to see the eclipse yesterday. Clouds started to clear an hour before, reappeared right at totality :-( then it cleared up and is still clear now — so likely not the eclipse effect. (They also looked like stratocumulus or altocumulus, while IIRC the clearing effect applies to lower clouds).

    That got me to thinking, so I looked up "cloud types" to see if I could get an idea of what we had here in Texas.

    I'm guessing we had a high layer of cirro-cumulus, being blown approximately NE by the wind and then a fairly low layer of strato-cumulus blowing due north ... and found out that ALTO-cumulus are actually higher than STRATO-cumulus. From where I was sitting, I could watch the lower layer blow towards me and anticipate when there would be gaps.

    I set up around 7:20 am local (Central Daylight) time and got the sun centered in the camera's view & let the solar tracker handle the rest. Whenever there WAS a gap in the two cloud layers, I was already focused & just had to trigger the shutter. I broke down my setup around 3:00 pm.

    I was shooting brackets of 5 (-2,-1,0,+1,+2) on a 2 second delay (to allow the camera to stop shaking from me pressing the shutter button). Sometimes the entire bracket wouldn't make it in during the gap.

    You pays ya' money and you takes ya chances.

    1652:

    hmmmm...

    a gourmet feast only available for two weeks every seventeen years...?

    oh-so-very-utterly "Second Gilded Age"

    like that old old joke about the difference between peasants stewing garden snails and the elite chowing down on escargot being seventy bucks per plate and the over-the-top snooooty-ness of the wine steward

    1653:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Seven_Year_Itch_(Grimm)

    SUMMARY

    "...A murder and the discovery of a body in a park lead Nick (David Giuntoli) and Hank (Russell Hornsby) to an insect Wesen that emerges from the Earth every seven years for 24 hours. During that time, he has to capture a victim to drag underground to eat for the next seven years. ..."

    1654:

    ...aaaaaand the haunting cries of those vegans-turned-zombi

    "Graaaaains... Graaaaains... Graaaaains..."

    { no need to shive I'll leave quietly }

    1655:

    ...oh crap

    another sub-plot being the bigots getting up nasty and blaming the Jews for salt shortages and/or the rising up of zombi hordes and/or hoarding Jewish space lasers rather than usimg 'em to burn off zombi hordes

    with granola eaters from Harvard and other snoooooty campuses demanding they be termed "undead-Americans" ...be stylized as zombi not zombie... so instead of green cards another foreign flood of zombi ought qualify for dingy-grey cards... protests by college kids about zombi being exploited as slave labor operating fork lifts

    1656:

    would these critters be commercially 'farmable'?

    I doubt it. You'd have no crop for years on end, and then when you did have a great big crop, the volume would be such as to force your price way, way down. So the satiation effect, but in economics and not ecology.

    1659:

    and then when you did have a great big crop, the volume would be such as to force your price way, way down.

    I was reading about some cicada scholars have found that these less than a decade short term eruptions of vast amounts of protein disrupt local food supplies for a while. As bears on down to squirrels, birds, and such engorge on them and allow their normal food stuffs to explode a bit.

    1660:

    NEWS FLASH

    Glasgow Willy Wonka ‘Chocolate Experience’ to be recreated – in LA: and Kirsty Paterson, 29, an actor and yoga teacher, became a viral hit after pictures emerged of her as a sad Oompa Loompa at the experience. But now she is set to be the star of the California event, with the comedian Zach Galifianakis also reportedly linked to the Willy’s Chocolate Experience LA event on the Eventbrite website..

    So hopefully it ends well for the poor actors?

    1661:

    Looks like one more in a string of cons.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/24244303.nathan-fielder-distances-la-recreation-glasgows-wonka/

    18 days out, and the only visible promotional material is an eventbrite site to buy tickets, and "a spokesperson for the event" says so

    1662:

    If they have budget they should license Tori Amos "Happy Worker" song from the Toys movie.

    Would be sad if Tier2Tech is right and it's just exporting the scam.

    1663:

    I mean, I suppose it might be legit. They don't actually seem to be advertising themselves that celebrity comedians will be at the event. Only media reports through anonymous cutouts are making such claims.

    So when people show up and Zach Galifianakis isn't there, their disappointment will be real. And in the end, isn't THAT what the true Glasgow Willy's Chocolate Experience is all about?

    1664:

    Tim H. @ 1586:

    I suppose I'm just wasting bandwidth to suggest more generous parental leave and affordable childcare would go further towards a goal of more children than establishing "Gilead". The usual suspects are unlikely to have read Mark Twain's relevangt quote on these matters "You can catch more flies with honey than you can with vinegar"

    Which is not at all true. You can attract more ants with honey, but flies LIKE vinegar. I make home-made fly traps and the best bait I've found for them is a bit of molasses mixed with vinegar.

    I'm sure you're right about the other, but you forget the part where the ELECT have to punish the non-elect ... the poor & the heathen must be made to suffer for their SINs.

    1665:

    Greg Tingey @ 1589:

    How seriously should we take the semi-official complaints/threats from Russia that they are ALREADY "at war" with NATO?

    When a man says he intends to kill you, you should take him at his word ...

    1666:

    Bellinghman @ 1656:

    "would these critters be commercially 'farmable'?"

    I doubt it. You'd have no crop for years on end, and then when you did have a great big crop, the volume would be such as to force your price way, way down. So the satiation effect, but in economics and not ecology.

    What if you searched out multiple strains that mature in different years ... vintages like fine wines?

    1667:

    JohnS
    But ...
    The rules are different between individual people & countries ... now what?

    1668:

    What if you searched out multiple strains that mature in different years ... vintages like fine wines?

    They exist.

    https://cicadas.uconn.edu/broods/

    1669:

    Greg Tingey @ 1667:

    JohnS
    But ...
    The rules are different between individual people & countries ... now what?

    In that respect they're not. Whether it's an individual or a country that says it wants to kill you, you should believe them when they do.

    1670:

    One might get the impression the "Elect" don't believe in a judgement day. To "Borrow" a phrase from a deceased evangelist, they need to "Let go and let God"*.

    • Though I'm sure Mr. Graham didn't mean it that way.
    1671:

    One might get the impression the "Elect" don't believe in a judgement day.

    Oh, they do. It's just that they are utterly certain the judgment will be in their favor.

    1672:

    With a dash of "We got it right now after everyone else got it wrong for 2000 or 6000 years."

    1673:

    What if you searched out multiple strains that mature in different years ... vintages like fine wines?

    You end up ultimately harvesting less protein from each brood, but more frequent broods hatching. The different broods share the same territory, hence the same soil, and therefore they're eating the same accumulation of biomass, which is the end product of local insolation driving plant growth.

    1674:

    Having just been out in slightly-rural Australia, I suggest that harvesting parrots would win you friends and also protein. The "black screechy bird" (Australia is really good at names) is bloody loud but luckily they hang round mostly in pairs. Unlike the white demon swarms that like to hang round in gangs and assault the eardrums of anyone unfortunate enough to be in the area. Also their houses, cars, pets etc.

    Seriously, they eat grain and breed prolifically, and like many dinosuars are very efficient at converting food into parrot. Flocks of thousands are common and earplugs are recommended.

    Specials

    Merchandise

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