Back to: What I published in 2018 | Forward to: Lessons learned: writing really long fiction

Deaths and Deadlines

Things have been a little quiet around here lately, so by way of an apology, let me explain why this is so. And also why "Invisible Sun" is so late.

Back in late 2013 my editor at Tor, David Hartwell, somehow charmed me into writing a follow-up trilogy to the Merchant Princes series.

"Empire Games", the trilogy, was originally due to come out starting in 2015. Indeed, David was gung-ho to push out all three novels at three month intervals, like Jeff Vandermeer's Southern Wake trilogy. Unfortunately, what David hadn't reckoned with was that I was already committed to publishing a novel a year via my other publishers, and my natural output rate is about 1.5 books/year. Also, David was that rare bird in these modern times, an editor who liked to edit. Indeed, he just about edited me to death. The first two novels, "Empire Games" and "Dark State", were undoubtedly improved by his diligence, but it served me as a crash course reminder in why I had resolved never to work with David again after the first series. (If you've ever had a charming but intensely annoying micromanager: it was like that.)

So we were just getting to grips with "Invisible Sun", a couple of years late (that kind of delay happens when your editor edits the first two books three times) ... when a bookcase fell on him and he died.

(It gets worse.)

Luckily David wasn't my only editor on this project. David was 75-ish; at that age, sudden involuntary retirement is a risk publishers plan for. My British publisher, Tor UK, was in the loop: my US publisher on the project, Tor, already had a fallback editor assigned. So my UK editor picked up the pieces and carried on.

Only, then my father died.

Losing a parent cannot be recommended as a positive experience. In my case, it killed a year of work I'd just put in on a new space opera, "Ghost Engine" (which is now going to be even later than a very late thing indeed). GE will still, I hope, see the light of day: it's just that it was indellibly associated in my skull with my father's terminal illness, and I needed to get some distance. So, after some hasty editorial conferences, we agreed that I'd bring "The Labyrinth Index" forward a year—I already had it planned, so writing it would be straightforward. And indeed, I squeezed it out and it was handed in only about three months after the original deadline for "Ghost Engine".

Then I burned out.

It's normal for authors to take multiple years off after the death of a parent. I was so busy patting myself on the back for being only three months behind schedule that I hadn't even noticed that the due date for the final redraft of "Invisible Sun" was a month after the delivery date for "The Labyrinth Index". (I wrote the first draft of "Invisible Sun" in 2014, but in the process of finalizing "Dark State" David hacked the first two chapers off "Invisible Sun" and turned them into the ending of the middle book, so it needed a total re-write to turn it back into a novel.) Anyway, I sat down to work on "Invisible Sun" in January 2018 ... and the words just didn't come.

I got there eventually. I turned in something vaguely book-shaped in late June, just six months late. Reader, I always hit deadlines. I spent years as a corporate technical author and then as a freelance journalist. Deadlines are holy. I do not miss deadlines: if I think I might need extra time I raise it with editorial/management so far ahead that they can reschedule things comfortably—and then I try not to use it. So, six months late? Is not business as usual in my world: in fact, it's a first, in just under 20 years of selling books.

With a six month delay, my editors at Tor (UK and US) agreed to delay the book by 12 months, providing lots of extra time to catch up. With on-going burnout, my agent and I agreed I'd take the last six months of 2018 as a sabbatical from writing. Travel, read, lie on a beach, whatever. I don't generally do holidays: when I travel there's usually a work engagement or three along the way. I last took a sabbatical in 2007: I'd been aiming to take one in 2017, but dad's illness came up instead.

So, that relaxing sabbatical in the second half of 2018? About two weeks into it, my mother was taken into hospital in an ambulance and spent the next three months on a succession of stroke/neurology wards in a city about 200 miles away from my home. She didn't die, but she's now in a nursing facility with no prospect of recovery. If she makes it to April she'll turn 90: to be honest, I didn't expect her to come out of hospital alive. Every week is a bonus, and I'm making weekly round trips to visit her. (If you've wondered why my public appearances have dropped through the floor since last autumn, it's because I don't want to be too far from the bedside.)

However, at some point during the last eight months, the period of burn out ended. I was allowed—my sabbatical rules—to work on a side-project: no contract, no deadline, no requirement that it even be publishable: just writing for the hell of it, anything I wanted, the way I did before the hobby turned into a day job. The side-project in question has the working title of "Lost Boys" (it almost certainly can't be published under that name, because the movie dominates the Google search ranking and SEO is important to book titles these days). I can't really say too much about it yet because it's not finished, much less sold to a publisher, and it certainly won't be published before 2020 at this point, but it's set in the Laundry universe but has nothing to do with the existing Laundry Files series, and it aims to do for "Peter Pan" what "Equoid" did for unicorns. I'm now about 70% of the way through writing a first draft, and I'd be aiming to finish it this month (February) except—

I mentioned "Invisible Sun" getting a one year delay, didn't I? Well, that means it's now due out in December 2019/January 2020. Which means that the publishers' production pipeline expects inputs at a specific point, and I need to do a final edit pass on it once my editor at Tor UK sends me an edit letter.

Which would have come in late December, but my editor's mother died right before Christmas.

Which brings me back to the present. I'm working on "Lost Boys", with the goal of having a Laundry spin-off novel ready for next year. "Ghost Engine" exists in first draft (I was halfway through the second draft when dad died) and it's not unlikely that it, too, will be completed in time for publication in 2020. I'm expecting the edits on "Invisible Sun" to arrive this week, and it should, I hope, come out at the end of 2019.

Just as long as nobody else dies.

1354 Comments

2:

Just wanted to say as a fan that I'm always amazed by your volume of output. Thanks for treating us to your work over the years, and take care of yourself. I'm looking forward to Invisible Sun and Ghost Engine whenever they come out!

3:

She, your mum, is in Leeds & you're in Edinburgh? Minmum train-time between the two appears to be about ..3h 8 min .. for 230 miles by train? Ok, 73 mph, not bad, but ... return? Um. NOT Good At All

As for people dying ... a very good friend, who happened to be "squire" of our Morris-sdie deid iN December - we buried him on Midwinter's Day - he was nine years younger than I ... & our "Bagman" (secretary) sister died last week. It don't half screw things up doesn't it?

4:

My sympathies to you Charlie. I hope your mum can stay with you for as long as she can, and I hope she’s getting good care, peace and comfort.

5:
it aims to do for "Peter Pan" what "Equoid" did for unicorns

The first thing that comes to mind on seeing this is "oh shit!".

Aside, the big problem of getting older, one year at a time, is that everyone else gets older one year at a time, except they have a headstart on you...

6:

Oh, chicken's tits, what a horrendous catalogue of disasters. Here's hoping this year is some kind of improvement. And as I've said before please don't feel you need to apologise for not having written as much as expected: having to wait a bit longer for a book is far preferable to having you fuck yourself up trying to get it written quicker.

7:

Charlie, it sounds like your life really sucks. I'm sorry to hear how bad things are and hope your life gets better ASAP!

8:

Very polite, Vincent.

The first thing that came to my mind was "You &*()_@#$%!!!!!"

Unicorns are never going to be the same again; and now he's going to ruin Peter Pan, too...

But, I am of course going to read it...

9:

One aspect I'm not particularly fond of in the US, is the assumption that you're entire family could be wiped out and you'll be expected back in the office the next day.

I'm glad you've taken time (and your publishers were ok with you taking time) to digest this, and I'm sorry for your losses.

You've also reminded me why I attach bookcases to the wall.

10:

Take good care of yourself and your family, we'll be here.

11:

Ahem: you might want to re-read (or read) "Peter and Wendy" by J. M. Barrie as an adult. (It's a free download on Project Gutenberg, at least in the US.)

Before Disney got his hands on Peter Pan, Peter was scary. And the novel "Peter and Wendy" makes it pretty clear the story was all about death, dying, and dead children—an attempt to explain to late Victorian/Edwardian toddlers why their baby brother or sister wasn't there any more.

Peter Pan is ... well, here's a direct quote:

... he was so full of wrath against grown-ups, who, as usual, were spoiling everything, that as soon as he got inside his tree he breathed intentionally quick short breaths at the rate of about five to a second. He did this because there is a saying in the Neverland that, every time you breathe, a grown-up dies; and Peter was killing them off vindictively as fast as possible.
12:

On a similar note, when I was drunk at uni I once wrote a "fairy genocide" program that consisted of an infinite loop that printed "I don't believe in faries!". That'll learn em!

13:

Crimini Jickets

You have absolutely nothing to apologize for.

14:

Unicorns were never really all that nice; the supposed source of unicorn legends was an especially gracile Ice Age rhino species. Now, given the general descriptions of black rhinos in Africa (A Peter Hathaway Capstick terms them "Old Dimwit" and generally equates them with unpredictable and erratic natural disasters), a gravile and fast-running rhino would be extremely bad news most of the time.

It would be especially bad for humans because like most extant rhinos, it would have had poor eyesight, a very acute sense of smell and a combination of curiosity, hair-trigger aggression and general stupidity that would make it extremely unpredictable and very dangerous to encounter, or even move around up-wind of.

All Charlie has done is point out that unicorn-like animals in his universe are predatory, vicious and very, very dangerous to encounter. Something like the Peter Pan legends would likely be similarly a combination of malice, predatory zeal, intelligence and enormous cognitative blind-spots.

I do hope the book sees light of day eventually.

15:

I do hope the book sees light of day eventually.

Well, there should be 70,000 words of a projected 95,000 words by the end of this week, so that's a good bet.

(But I have to down tools when the edits to INVISIBLE SUN arrive on Friday, because that has a definite deadline attached and I need to switch tasks. And my mother ... well, she might last another few months, but I doubt it. Single-digit weeks are more likely. So the schedule is indeterminate and I'm not making any promises.)

16:

So that just sucks! I normally lurk and never post but I had to say don’t apologise - Charlie Stross books are worth the wait. But we won’t get anything if you drive yourself into the ground. I truly hope 2019 is a better year and your mother is comfortable and content. Look after yourself Charlie.

And I recently reread Peter and Wendy. I’m very much Looking forward to your take on It!

17:

Charlie, you have my sincerest sympathies and also my thanks. My father had a massive heart attack in January, received quintuple bypass surgery, and spent most of two weeks in a hospital intensive care unit. While I was spending upwards of eight hours per day with him in the ICU, I purchased a copy of The Labyrinth Index on my phone. It was honestly some of the best money I've spent in a long time. It was a great distraction from events beyond my control, and a dark laugh at the same time.

[Mild Spoilers:] I was also really surprised that I was rooting for the vampire-superhero marriage by the end, as I hadn't even liked "fuckboy" (I honestly can't remember his real name--Malcolm?) very much in his previous outing. Thanks again for writing such a great series. Mhari is also my favorite POV character so far--and I've loved all of them. I was also amused by how world events keep overtaking you. The Mandate's evil plans for the UK were murderous, but still seemed somewhat restrained compared to what's been happening in real life. I'd take current events as a license to be even more zany going forward. ;-D

I hope you and your loved ones have a safe, happy, and mostly-uneventful year.

18:

Charlie,

Dunno what happened this morning, but after putting it off for a couple of weeks, I just bought (and started reading) Labyrinth Index.

Second... I'm very sorry about your dad; on the other hand, you had him this long. I lost my father when I was 38, and my mother when I was 43. At least then, I still had my late wife. Not easy or fun, in any way.

19:

Troutwaxer, since I couldn't respond on the "what I published in 2018", you said "you're here" - where? If you're in DC, tell me, and let's have dinner.

20:

My sympathies.

21:

And it's not like it's a fine science, as I discovered in 2013. We knew my mother was in her final illness, but expected it to be a few more weeks (on the judgment of the nursing home staff), so we went off to Bradford for Eastercon, because we needed a break from all the shit that was happening.

(Including the unexpected death of my wife's father a few weeks earlier.)

And so it was when we got back from the Kashmir on Good Friday that I got the phone call.

'a few weeks' turned out to be less than two days.

It's hard to make proper plans in these cases.

22:

Yeah, Unicorns. You don’t want to fuck with them. A short film, “Delicacy”: http://blogs.kqed.org/filmschoolshorts/films/delicacy/

23:

Did I say 70,000 words by the end of this week?

Ha ha, I stopped writing just 180 words short of there a moment ago so that I could go past 70,000 words first thing tomorrow.

Think I'm going to keep going on this one until that edit letter arrives. Who knows? At this rate it could be baked within another fortnight.

24:

Yikes, that's a hard couple of years! Take your time (well as much as your willing to and publishers can allow), and spend as much if it as you can with your mum. Much better to have you sane and functional with a number of delayed books than completely burning out or starting to produce rushed work you don't feel good about.

We'll be waiting patiently, and buying anything that turns up, when it turns up (though by the sounds it, that novel seems to be coming along at a high rate of knots/words)!

Good luck Charlie!

And if you ever get a chance you should try a book tour or even better a holiday down here in NZ/Aus.

25:

Holy shit, what a string of disasters! I hope to hell thats the end of it and you can put your life back together now. With luck, in a couple of years you’ll be back on schedule and able to go on the road, and I’ll be out of this wheelchair and able to meet you for a beer when you’re in town. Good luck.

26:

Charlie said: when a bookcase fell on him and he died.

Of course. That is an appropriate way for a book editor to die.

I retired from the Department at the end of 2007, my dad died nine days later at "home" hospice. My mom then tried to push everything out of the house that reminded her of him. Big mistake. She collapsed eight months later and ended up in thirty day "recovery" paid by Medicare to get her strength back. She lived fairly well for three more years, giving her time to get everything ready for her own death. It wasn't her feet/legs that killed her it was because she was high on Oxycontin to "control" the pain that killed her. She fell down in the backyard, and didn't feel it until the next day when she couldn't move for the pain from the massive bruising. She literally fell, then bounced back up embarrassed that she "tripped".

We then spent the next four months dancing her through the system, in and out of hospitals and "recovery" centers. Here in America you don't go to a hospital to get well, you go for expensive procedures, so every Thursday morning when the staff changed the new doctor would kick her out of the hospital and into a "recovery" center rather than deal with her. Even if it was in the middle of a procedure, out she went. Then at the "recovery" center she would crash, be sent to the emergency room, stabilize, then be kicked out at the next Thursday shift change.

This went on for months until she was finally transferred to hospice care(paid by Medicare). At the hospice she perked up, everybody had the chance to visit and say their goodbyes. She appeared to be doing so well that on the Thursday shift change the doctors were going to kick her back to the "recovery" center; she obviously wasn't dying fast enough for them. That upset her so much that she shut down and they let her stay to die. That was on Good Friday. She was basically gone by Easter, but wasn't officially dead till the following Wednesday when her body finally got the message that she was gone.

BTW, The mistake my mom made when dad died was being upset by the fact that everything reminded her of him. After her collapse, I finally made it clear to her that the memories were a feature, not a flaw. Not a day goes by that I'm not reminded of mom or dad, and I always say, "Thank you". I cherish the memories of both, celebrating what they taught me about life, both good and bad.

When it comes to finishing "Invisible Sun" and Hartwell, embrace the memories, finish the book as if he were right there helping you, because he is. That's a feature, not a flaw.

  • That's the thing about people still being present long after they are dead, the memories of their life reminds you that it's now your job to make the decisions, to do the work.

Also, when you look at the Google listing for "Lost Boys" it's about the Kiefer Sutherland movie about Vampires. Modern audiences are not thinking "Peter Pan" when you say "Lost Boys".

  • Look at The Child Thief: A Novel by Brom for how he handled his Peter Pan title.

My advice, fuck Google. Use "Lost Boys", it's a great title.

Bellinghman @21

People often hold back for the Holidays, or literally wait till you have left the room before dying. Mom fell after Christmas 2011, then held on four months.

The only reason she held out till April is because grandfather and dad both died in a January near my brother's birthday. Mom literally did not want to add her death to that list. In January, while she was in the first "recovery" center, we joked about that. I told her that I always knew that she would die before my birthday, so that it was all right with me if that happened.

On Good Friday, I told mom, "It's Good Friday. It's all right. You can die now." It happened before my birthday in April, so I get to own it.

27:

Ah Charlie,

Welcome to the future. This is what we all get to go through in the next decades as the Boomers die off and us Xers follow them. It always sucks, but I think the sucktastic thing is that we're embedded in a society that is less than matter-of-fact about the innate tragedy that life is generally too short and dying is generally too long, and compounds the harm by indoctrinating us that the best death is both instantaneous and tidily inconsequential, so that it won't bother the rest of us. It seldom works that way, though.

Anyway, take care of yourself.

Oh, and about Lost Boys? I Amazoned it and found that the vampire movie had spawned sequels, so yeah, that's a bit too muddy for a good title. Too bad Seanan McGuire's taken "Wayward Children" already. Perhaps something like "The Laundry's Lost Children" or "The Laundry's Wayward Children?" I wouldn't suggest "The Misguided Children" because SEO sinks that search into the morass of American right-wingiana.

28:

Dear Mr Stross,

On my bookshelf is a row of books that you put there. They are among my favourites and I don't think that any of them have been read less than 4 times. They are a joy to read and they brighten our world.

Storytelling is one of the great gifts.

If you write any new books - I will be grateful.

But, if you don't write new books - I will still be grateful.

Thank you for the stories.

You have no need to apologise.

29:

Wow, that's rough. My wife died last year after several years spent fighting leukemia.

30:

And if you ever get a chance you should try a book tour or even better a holiday down here in NZ/Aus

I don't visit the antipodes very often: it's a hell of a long way. (There's a point in the ocean about 300km directly south of the south-east corner of South Island, NZ, which is literally the opposite pole of the planet from where I live.) However, the worldcon is due to be in NZ next year, and I plan to be there if at all possible (and will probably want to spend some time exploring, then change planes over a couple of weeks in Sydney or Melbourne on the way home—last visited either of those cities in roughly 2010).

31:

I would just like to note that contemporary American (and British) cultural taboos around death and dying are as opaque and forbidding as their Victorian era counterparts' taboos around sex. And the relative openness about sex today had its counterpart with public models for death and mourning back then.

32:

Charlie,

Glad you've taken on a side project -- a good plan indeed.

So, it looks like you won't be needing any of those ideas I tagged on to the end of one of the recent threads after the 1,000 item.

And having now handled four of them, death of parents doesn't get any easier. I work with an 80 year old ex-academic, and when I mentioned the loss, he said it didn't get any easier even after thirty years. But I figure you've worked out most of that already.

33:

I had a string of years where this stuff was a bit unrelenting, with deaths and illnesses involving close friends and close family (and a dog!) in multiple succession, at least 2 events a year. The climax wasn’t exactly a career nose-dive, I’d characterise it more as a sort of high-altitude stall, albeit not especially high (in some ways it was a result of the turbulence of those climbing past). I’m back where I was now, but probably never getting higher, at least not in the foreseeable future in the area I’m working. It’s the mortgage that stops me transitioning out more than anything, so I’ve gone back to study in an attempt to switch out at level, but that isn’t at all a foolproof plan, and I seem to be finding more foolishness the more I look within. The daily struggle is more with depression and a tiredness I can’t shake off, which means the stuff requiring optimism and energy is harder than it should be. Nonetheless, energy and optimism are the things that work for me, so that’s just how it has to go.

Ideally I’ll just start writing one of these days, and that will be my transition out. But I think everyone thinks or says that at some point :).

34:

We then spent the next four months dancing her through the system, in and out of hospitals and "recovery" centers. Here in America you don't go to a hospital to get well, you go for expensive procedures, so every Thursday morning when the staff changed the new doctor would kick her out of the hospital and into a "recovery" center rather than deal with her. Even if it was in the middle of a procedure, out she went. Then at the "recovery" center she would crash, be sent to the emergency room, stabilize, then be kicked out at the next Thursday shift change.

For the last year or few this would most likely not happen. Hospitals new get penalized if people cycle in and out. At least for Medicare covered people. The current emphasis is to kick you out as soon as you are well enough to not be back for at least 30 days.

35:

Not a day goes by that I'm not reminded of mom or dad,

Yes. My father passed in 2001 and every now and then I think I'll call him to ask his opinion for till I remember he is gone.

36:

I would just like to note that contemporary American (and British) cultural taboos around death and dying are as opaque and forbidding

No question about it.

My wife and I have been talking about writing down a lot of things that are not normally in a will so our children will have some guidance about how we feel about things. Especially after dealing with all of our parents passing after refusing to discuss any end of life issues.

And on a side note, for those in the US, you need to put into your will or maybe a hand written witnessed letter that any data stored anywhere in the world that in past times would have been on paper can be legally be treated as if it is still on paper. Talk to a lawyer. Some (many?) states treat cloud storage differently and will lock out access unless specifically specified otherwise. Assuming you would want such to happen. This is starting to be an issue in the US as more and more documents and/or personal information only exists in the cloud.

37:

Charlie,

Take care of yourself. I had a year a while back where a counselor said 'Wow! You've got it rough!', and you are matching that.

38:

I'm in Southern California, but I'd be happy to hang out if you're ever out this way.

39:

David L @36

Good luck on nonphysical data, that usually vanishes or is locked once people die.

I don't have a link to the article, but a father, daughter, shared his Kindle books. They read them together. Once he died, she no longer had access to the books. If I remember, the TOS of most systems forbid writing a copy of the passwords, etc..., so putting them someplace is problematic. So anything important that is virtual needs to be made real again and physically stored if you want family to keep it, copied to DVD, etc...

  • I do not yet know how as writer to set something up to keep my books alive in Amazon after I die. Once I make large enough money, I'll figure something out.

Mom did everything right, after she recovered from dad's death. Part of her was surprisingly relentless about getting things done: Power of Attorney, having our names on her accounts; checking, CDs, etc... The wall we hit was on the Power of Attorney. It only worked as long as she was alive. We did not know that was going to happen. Luckily I had money to pay bills. Then we just had to have copies of the Death Certificate to do the rest.

One of the things they both did to prepare, decades ago, was put my name on the house title so that we didn't have to go through probate. Decades ago, they set up Living Wills that spelled out what to do, especially Do Not Resuscitate. I'm the one who had access to a laser printer and word processor, so I had to create them for them. You have to be flexible with that. Mom had a pacemaker put in a decade before she died. We looked at it like having a pair of glasses on, an assist to living, not a violation of the wishes they set up.

The doctors and nurses are trapped by Living Wills, they cannot do anything to resuscitate without fear of being sued. They can be, and were, quite vicious in challenging our understanding of the Living Will. When they were waiting to put the pacemaker in, mom's heart stopped in her room. My sister and a nurse was there. The nurse said sometimes a poke in the arms starts it up again, and she did just that. No extraordinary measures.

While mom was in hospice my sister kept using euphemisms about death. The doctor kept demanding, "Go on? Go on where. Leave us, where is she going. I don't care about where she lives." We had to explicitly state that she was there to die. The staff was not allowed to talk about death unless we did. They could not even say the word until we stated it explicitly.

You have to have somebody say the words and stick with it, otherwise too many people are polite, use euphemisms, and nothing gets done. I was the one who had to be the adult in the room when mom could no longer speak.

The number of bizarre things that happened during that time is still inexplicable to me. Much will someday appear in the books I publish. They can only be understood through Story.

40:

Good luck on nonphysical data, that usually vanishes or is locked once people die. ... Kindle books.

I'm not so much thinking of the crazy world (where there is a 3rd party with "rights" involved) of DRM'd books and such. I'm referring to things like my email collection, financial records stored in a cloud services, the 30,000 photos in AWS, and so on.

So far we've verbally told our grown kids our 1Password pass phrase.

41:

Charlie, I lost my beloved Dad to fast-moving aggressive cancer in 2015 and I know how badly it affected me. I still miss him desperately and think about him every day. Please accept my sincerest condolences to you and your family. This article helped me with the grieving process: https://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/10/getting-grief-right/ Please take care of yourself and take whatever time you need.

42:

Death is a mystery and the grave a secret to quote Mr King.

43:

Charlie @ 23 Yes, when the inspiration comes, use it ... reminds me of that OGLAF cartoon about "The New Muse" (!)

allynh @ 26 Your description of the cyclical US "HEalth" procedures is utterly revolting & inhumane. OTOH, we have our own demons ... the "Today" programme had a bit on someone going to Dignitas & the local Plod giving his wife hell, because some stinking bastard tipped them off & shge "may face prosecutioN" if "further evidence becomes available" Details here Charlie @ 31 hits it on the head

44:

My Dad made a will after dealing with four estates where the person had not, including his mother and mine, because he "wasn't going to put me through that". He also left a large envelope with "to be read after I'm dead - no you fool after I'm dead!" on the front, which had details of all the bank accounts, and which solicitor had the will, and a list of names and addresses of friends (not all of which proved to be current, but it was still a huge help). He and my mother had spent the best part of a week clearing through paperwork at my grandad's place before they found the house deeds, and that was another thing he was not going to do to me. Given I was an orphan at 36 he made it as easy as it is possible for that to be.

45:

As others, you have filled a shelf of my bookcases (and this after donating the 6-volume Merchant Princes when the 3-volume Author's Cut was released).

For that I am grateful, and for the personal stuff I have no adequate words.

46:

Ah yes, being as prepared as possible up front does help (and I'm sure Charlie and his family are).

My mother entrusted Enduring Power of Attorney to my wife (not me, my wife — Yorkshire women trust each other), and also made her the executor of her will. As mother was initially in a care home and then a nursing home, she was never going to be able to return to living in her house, so we put that up for sale. We had to inform the buyers that it was possible that mother would die while before the sale completed, and that that would cause a delay as we applied for probate, but that it would be as short as possible.

Also, my wife became a joint signatory on mother's bank accounts. The current (checking?) account was older than me.

47:

Take your time. "Charlie Stross is not your bitch" is not going to be a meme we need.

48:

Indeed. I am not quite from that background, and my father died when I was 8, causing a traumatic move to the UK, which took me a couple of decades to adapt to (insofar as I have). At 10, our English teacher was talking about euphemism and 'breaking news gently' using Shakespeare's "full fathom five", said it was much less harsh to the bereaved, and asked the class. I was the only person to disagree, strongly - but was the one with the experience!

Quite a lot of this is because people are not accustomed to unexpected deaths happening, especially to children - I was, though only to the level of the Victorian upper-class - the Victorian working class encountered it frequently, and had to go to work the next day. I know that some of the Victorian upper-class were completely doolally about it, but I also know that many were not, though I have no idea of the proportions and reasons.

I do not know enough about your and your mother's situation to wish for anything, but know death was a welcome release for my grandmother and mother. I kept hoping for news of my mother's death - and also knew that she had wanted to die rather than be incapacitated by strokes - unfortunately, she was 2 years with essentially no ability to communicate or feed herself. That's not something I say often, because it is often claimed to be disloyalty.

49:

The staff was not allowed to talk about death unless we did. They could not even say the word until we stated it explicitly.

It's similar in the UK, but not identical. In particular: when my father was in his terminal stage, the GP would visit at home—but was waiting for someone (in the event, me) to use the words "terminal" and "palliative care". At which point it was like throwing a switch—suddenly Macmilan nurses (home end-of-life specialists) began turning up, all sorts of stuff was installed to make him comfortable at home with hospice-level care, and so on.

I think the reasoning here is that if the doctors appear to be pushing the family towards end-of-life decisions they may be held liable afterwards if the family don't want to go there. But if the family have a realistic outlook and make the call, the medics are free to take appropriate action without personal risk.

50:

Ah, another Tyke. Just curious - where in *G.O.C. are you ? (I'm in Ossett, Wakefield)

*God's Own County, of course.

51:

I will add: some people just don't get it, ever.

My cousin was diagnosed with an inoperable terminal brain cancer for which chemotherapy and radiation treatment weren't possible, and given six months to live. His wife ... she was in complete denial.

He succumbed to total aphasia about 3 months before the end, so she took it on herself to act as his mouthpiece.

Three days before the end, while he was half-paralysed, unable to communicate, and clearly dying, she was so convinced he was being poisoned by the mercury amalgam in his dental fillings that she paid the dentist to come to their home and remove all his fillings.

She didn't accept that he was dying of cancer until the undertakers arrived to remove the body.

(This is the kind of person who doctors live in terror of, because as the wife of a senior partner in a law firm, if anyone is going to try and sue the shirt off your back for malpractice, it's going to be her.)

52:

I very strongly recommend taking longer than you think to tour NZ, especially the south island - you may find a month feels short, unless you start missing city lights after he first week. And remember that tight schedules are bad, especially in the south island (and most of all on its west coast), as roads DO get blocked without warning.

53:

So far we've verbally told our grown kids our 1Password pass phrase.

Not sufficient.

You need to go to 1password and generate and print an emergency recovery sheet—password, URLs, secret key, QR code, and so on. Then feed it through a laminator so it doesn't succumb to coffee stains/ink blots. And put it in your filing cabinet or bank deposit box in an envelope labelled OPEN IN EVENT OF MY DEATH.

That way, even if you die while you're logged out of your computer so they can't get into it, they can install 1Password on another machine and get into your account.

If you use gmail, or google services for photos and similar, also set up the Google Inactive Account Manager. It's a dead man's switch, to notify designated trusted contacts and give them access (or wipe your content — it's your choice) if you drop off the net and don't respond to emails for a pre-set period (typically 3 months, then 1 month to respond before google goes "yup, they're dead—hand the keys to next of kin").

IIRC Apple and the other big walled gardens have similar ways of pre-setting what to do in event of a user's death.

(Reminds me: I need to write up what $SPOUSE/heirs are to do about this blog if I die suddenly. The server it's hosted on costs about £1000/year to run, billable in late August for a year in advance, and we've got a part-time sysadmin who works on a consultancy basis: So the end of life process would be (a) post a death notification, (b) keep the blog open for comments for a month to let people say their goodbyes or discuss setting up a forum somewhere else, then (c) archive it to a cheap static web hosting site somewhere before shutting down in good order.)

54:

Thank you. That is potentially very useful.

If someone complained about that dentist on professional ethics grounds, he could be in serious trouble. Your cousin's wife must have been, er, very persuasive.

55:

Ilikeitupthebum and all that but I'd have thought they would both be in trouble. Conspiracy to commit battery/GBH or something like that. Unless the dentist turned up, saw what the situation was and told her to do one.

56:

When my dad was dying - he was given three months, and lasted 13 - my mom figured he hung on to give the rest of us the chance to get used to it - they got him to sign papers. My mom did nothing. I was very lucky: a fan-friend and lawyer, who'd recently had to deal with his grandmother's estate, became our lawyer, and my idiot was so upset that she was fine on signing, at a notary's, making me the executor instead of her (that would have been a disaster, and we would have lost most of the inheritence).

I have versions on my computer at home, and I've been saying for years I need to update it. Then I'll print it out, along with instructions and directions, and put it in a labeled envelope in the fire-resistant lockbox under my desk. My kids know the box is there, and what kinds of things I keep in it.

I'd been saying DNR, NHM, but my recent ex convinced me to drop the DNR. No heroic measures, though.

57:

You have described my mom. Or someone from the same mental zone. My mom was in denial about my dad in many crazy ways. And at her time (and most of her life) also about her condition. Which only made it harder.

58:

The closest I'll get to there... well, I am still trying to decide if I want to spend money in Utah for the NASFiC. Beyond that... I've been talking for a loooong time about, if Amtrak still offers them, a three-zone fair, and take the grand tour. That, of course, would include the Coast Starlight....

59:

Not sufficient.

Sort of. My personal email is on my personal server.

My kids can also get into my phones and iOs devices. So with that and 1password they can get into everything eventually. With inbox access they can basically reset any password they might need, including 1Password.

And I have some spread sheets with things like where all the money gets spent monthly.

But as I shut down my personal email server I will have to move more to a document with a lawyer or similar.

Plus since my wife and I often travel with my grown children we need to make arrangements with some trusted non relatives who can hand things over to the state or some more distant relatives if needed. Plane or car crash or some such. Gets hard to deal with as we have relations with some of my closer relatives become strained over the orange one.

When my mother was dying and then did die her 3 sons and spouses spent well over 1000 hours sorting through piles of paperwork to figure out what was where. Biggest scare was a bank loan on her house that could have been called. They basically agreed not to get too excited that she was dead and allowed us to keep making interest only payments on the house until it was sold. But that required almost of year of waiting for things to go through the probate process due to lack of planning.

Oh, yeah I yelled loudly and finally convinced my brother, the executor, to form a LLC for the house to limit anything we do or have done in our past from impacting the sale of the house.

PS: In the US a bank safety deposit box can be a real pain when someone dies. It CAN take an executor weeks to get into it depending on lots of details that may exist.

60:

Speaking of deadlines, Charlie, I'm reading Labyrinth Index, and that, along with a satirical quote from Borowitz that's gone viral (Trump: "I don't need intelligence!"), collided in my mind, and I realized the TRVTH.

fnord

Now that the UnEnlightened can't read this, you need to be careful writing things like this, if it comes to the Attention of Certain Persons.

I mean, we knew Cheney was doing rituals to Cthulhu in the basement of the White House when he was "VP". Now, I've got to wonder if McConnel doesn't resemble a turtle, but is, in fact, more... ahhh, batrchian.

And eating the Orange Thing's "brain" is like eating one orange cheese puff. What do we have to do, invoke HASTUR to save the US and the World?!

fnord

Speaking of which, with all that in my head, I realized my next short story will be The Illuminatii vs. Cthulhu....

61:

I'm a rabid enough fan of yours to have read avidly everything you've written as soon as it's been released, starting when I read Accelerando at the perfect age to enjoy it. You explode my brain in the best way possible.

Please, Charlie, take care of yourself. Take a few years off if you need to.

62:

My sympathies, Charlie. You have nothing to apologize for, health problems in family, loss of close relatives are hard. Take your time, recharge your batteries - we have patience. I will wait for your next book as long as it takes you to write and publish it. Also, I really want to read your take on Peter Pan; lovecraftian unicorns were wicked. Do you have similar ideas about non-Western European folklore? Classical literature? Unfortunately, I don't have anyone to share my love for your books, because very few people read English here. By the way, do you plan visiting this year's Worldcon in Dublin? Met you in Helsinki in 2017, and since that time want to make text-to-speech device to read your books in your voice. Thank you for your books, Charlie.

63:

It's been totally done, you wascally wabbit. Do you see the shoggoths now?

64:

Reminds me of what I need to do: --Make a will --Get the house in a trust.

The trust is a US thing, but putting property in trusts is easier on the inheritance, because what happens is the heir becomes a trustee to the trust, and when the head of the trust dies, the heir takes over as the new head of the trust, unwinds the trust , and owns the property without going through probate.

My one experience with winding down someone's life was with my late uncle. Fortunately, he was organized (bless him!) and since he was in extended care for the last year of his life, we got to sell his house and get him set up, well, sort of comfortably, but at least adequately cared for.

I had access to his electronic accounts long before he died, simply to make sure he didn't get scammed when he was vulnerable and didn't miss anything that he needed to see. After he died, I left his email up for a year to catch messages from people he didn't know he'd died, cancel renewals on services I didn't know about, and so on. Then I closed it down.

I've still got a lot of his files, some of which eventually need to go to the extended family (eventually means it should have happened years ago, but...). Knowing him, I suspect he'd wish for something better to happen to his stuff, but he and I have different interests, and I'm going to curate his things until either a home opens up for them or chaos intervenes and they're lost.

Could be worse, I guess. Most of my probable heirs have no idea what I'm into (for instance, this website). At least I was lucky enough to know him better.

65:

Speaking of strange revelations, I got one recently after reading the following, very familiar passage:

“Nor is it to be thought,” ran the text as Armitage mentally translated it, “that man is either the oldest or the last of earth’s masters, or that the common bulk of life and substance walks alone. The Old Ones were, the Old Ones are, and the Old Ones shall be. Not in the spaces we know, but between them, They walk serene and primal, undimensioned and to us unseen. Yog-Sothoth knows the gate. Yog-Sothoth is the gate. Yog-Sothoth is the key and guardian of the gate. Past, present, future, all are one in Yog-Sothoth. He knows where the Old Ones broke through of old, and where They shall break through again. He knows where They have trod earth’s fields, and where They still tread them, and why no one can behold Them as They tread. By Their smell can men sometimes know Them near, but of Their semblance can no man know, saving only in the features of those They have begotten on mankind; and of those are there many sorts, differing in likeness from man’s truest eidolon to that shape without sight or substance which is Them. They walk unseen and foul in lonely places where the Words have been spoken and the Rites howled through at their Seasons. The wind gibbers with Their voices, and the earth mutters with Their consciousness. They bend the forest and crush the city, yet may not forest or city behold the hand that smites. Kadath in the cold waste hath known Them, and what man knows Kadath? The ice desert of the South and the sunken isles of Ocean hold stones whereon Their seal is engraven, but who hath seen the deep frozen city or the sealed tower long garlanded with seaweed and barnacles? Great Cthulhu is Their cousin, yet can he spy Them only dimly. Iä! Shub-Niggurath! As a foulness shall ye know Them. Their hand is at your throats, yet ye see Them not; and Their habitation is even one with your guarded threshold. Yog-Sothoth is the key to the gate, whereby the spheres meet. Man rules now where They ruled once; They shall soon rule where man rules now. After summer is winter, and after winter summer. They wait patient and potent, for here shall They reign again.”

My thought? The Great Old Ones are microbes.

After all, at least half the above epic rant sounds like what you'd get after a Renaissance magician translated the ravings of an outsider Arab who heard from Someone about Weird Important Stuff That Didn't Make Much Sense and tried to write down what he'd thought he'd heard. Imagine if that Someone was a scientifically advanced alien trying to describe how the world really works, that life evolved from microbes, that the Earth had been dominated solely by these monsters for ages (four billion years solo, 4.54 billion and change total to date), that while we thought we ruled, they sat serene and largely unnoticed in the spaces between the places we thought we owned, that we'd know them as a foulness, and that after the Earth could no longer support us, they'd rule it alone again. That sure sounds like microbial life to me, but you know, someone who's reference points are the Quran and tribal beliefs might not hear it that way. And someone who's looking for easy power from a DIY book probably would further mess up the translation (crushing forests? In the Arabian Desert? Dude.).

So there's my revelation for the day: The Great Old Ones are bacteria and archaea. Pass it on. Or them on. Unless they want you to do it, in which case, don't.

66:

Heteromeles @65 said: The Great Old Ones are microbes.

You are correct, Sir. Well done.

67:

I was gonna say, but you beat me to it. Just to be pedantic, however, it was Yog Sothoth vs. the Illuminati vs. Eris. Great books though!

68:

"The Great Old Ones are bacteria and archaea."

It makes perfect sense, but is absolutely no fun.

70:

To be frank, Charlie, it sounds like you've had a lot of stuff fall on you over the past couple of years, with more anticipated to come up in the future. With that in mind, I do hope you're taking it relatively easy on yourself, and remembering the human brain (and the human mind which is an emergent result of it) is basically the ultimate in kludged-together systems - it is therefore not particularly surprising that when things break, they do so in ways which apparently make no sense whatsoever, and cause all kinds of weird and wonderful effects. (Why the hell is emotion routed through cognition anyway? Couldn't evolution have separated the two sub-systems so we didn't have to deal with fucking great bug-clusters like depression and anxiety? sigh)

All of which is to say this much: I don't know about anyone else, but quite frankly, I'd rather you paced yourself, took your time, and were still able to write five years from now, rather than pushing yourself too hard to keep up with demand today, and burning out completely. Particularly given external events, over which you have very little control (one vote every three or four years is not a huge locus of control, let's be honest).

Also, given "Peter Pan" was as creepy as all heck to begin with (from what I've heard - what I've heard makes me very reluctant to read it, because I think it would go into all the worst places in my head and start flipping switches and kicking holes in walls at random) I shudder to think what you can come up with which makes it worse...

(ah, Victorian literature... making childhood a hellscape since, what, the 1850s or thereabouts?)

71:

Megpie Charlie, etc. Late-Victorian etc attitudes to Death as opposed to SEX ... Yes, well, my maternal grandmother had her first child in ( I think ) 1898, followed by 7 more ( 4 of each ) ... apparently, she was asked during the 1920's ... "how many children Mrs Gascoine? ... oh 8 ... all still living?" The infant mortality statistics, even for one of the most developed countries on the planet at the time would scare moderns absolutely witless.

72:

Me? Hertfordshire. I'm Oxfnord born.

My wife moved from York down to London aged 5. My mother moved from Horsforth down to Kent aged ... I'm not sure, but she then got sent to boarding school in Lausanne, and was then evacuated from there to Toronto, aged perhaps 10.

But they're Yorkshire women. You can take ...

73:

That would be Ubbo-Sathla, of course, and the giant fungus in Oregon has some possibilities for cosmic horror.

I've frequently thought about this and my conclusion is that in Lovecraft the gap between our species and the species which horrify us really comes down to what kind of cells they/we have.

If your species has been intelligent for a couple million years you've probably self-modified by now, and your cells are probably nano-machines of some kind, (organic or mechanical, or perhaps energy states of some kind) rather than randomly evolved cells, and you have the ability to self-program those machines to say, support cognition/action in the ocean depths, miles beneath the earth, in space, or in exotic dimensions where "life as we know it" is not ordinarily possible.

So if you're Cthulhu (or Yog Sothoth, or Shudde-Me'll, or Wh'tever) you probably tend to look at anyone who can't program their own "cells/nano-machines" as below the threshold of sentience, and someone who can program their own cells as someone who cannot ethically be eaten. The tragedy of the Elder Things, at least on Earth, is that they lost the ability to tell their cells what to do and became sub-sentient.

I'd guess that the spells in the Necronomicon come down to something like, "Since you are coming here and wish to continue being sentient, note the physics of this place and adjust your neuro-transport mechanisms as follows: ____ unless you are being summoned into salt water of a depth greater than X, (note the local gravity gradient) in which case do: _____" and so on.

If you perform your summoning incorrectly you've provided bad information about how to safely exist in this space and the first pseudopod through the gate loses the ability to manage it's own brain cells. The being you've summoned assumes that you have hostilely given false information, so it stops moving through the gate, attacks you, drags you back through the gate, interrogates you, and disposes of you when your (primitive) thoughts are no longer of interest.

So one way or another, it's all about cells.

74:

Strokes (and I suppose any sort of brain injury) are a strange thing, to see some aspects of a person so totally there but others so absent. We cremated my dad yesterday and one of the oddest things we saw while he was in hospital after his stroke was seeing him struggle so much to use the telly in his room, but then grab his phone, unlock it, navigate to the password manager he uses, unlock that and then go to the relevant section to deal with some minor administrative thing that my mother mentioned in passing. Of course, you know that this is due in some way to muscle memory and learned vs new information, spatial processing and short term memory, but to see in action is an eerie and unpleasant thing.

Charlie, I wish you all the best in dealing with all this stuff.

75:

Yep. My great grandmother married in 1878, IIRC (the genealogist in the family is my wife and she's not at her computer right now), and had 14 children, of whom 8 survived into their 20s. (Admittedly, one died in a plane crash during the first world war—he was a pilot in the RFC.)

Infant mortality pre-5 dropped precipitously throughout the 19th century, as did maternal death in childbirth: from about 50% (around 1800) to 20% (by 1900).

Still terrible by modern standards, with social implications we can only grasp via abstract reasoning: death was everywhere, and families large, and women averaged 4-5 pregnancies each (not counting miscarriages). Feed those assumptions into the SF world-building machine and the society you crank out at the other end won't look a lot like ours.

76:

You have my deepest sympathy.

77:

My deepest sympathies to Charlie, and everyone else who has shared stories of recent (or even not-so-recent) bereavements.

I will add my voice to the "have honest conversations and be prepared" chorus, but from a slightly different perspective. My wife works as a nurse, and has shared countless horror stories of the actions that they have been legally required to perform to keep patients alive when relatives cannot accept the inevitable. I will not share the details here, because they really really aren't nice, but for those of us under the care of the NHS (I don't know the terminology for other healthcare providers), a DNAR (do not attempt resuscitation) order is in all honesty a kindness.

78:

In the context of Dave's #77, about 20 years ago (shortly after I rolled a car into a ball, basically unhurt but that's not the point, in fact the point is not about me as such except in that my action prompted the conversation which I strongly recommend everyone has whilst they still can) my parents, my sis and I all agreed circumstances in which a DNR would be issued regarding any of us.

79:

Re infant mortality and continued memories, there's a wonderful Ray Bradbury short story called "No news, or what killed the dog". Dog (capitalised, because that was his name) is a reminder that death does happen, but that it happens so much less these days, and the memories are still precious.

80:

Infant mortality THIS is where we are now for true infant mortality - up to 1st year & this show the rate to 5 years. Now then, look at this graph which shows the decline in recent years Even in the UK, in my liftetime, the rate has dropped from over 0.6% in in 1950 ( I was born in 1946 ) to about 0.02% now (!) Largely, as a result of this, overall life expectancy has also risen ( there are other factors for this, as well, of course - better nutrition & education all help ... See here for that one For a good overall view, I cannot better the article from "Our World in Data" ... linked here ... please, everybody take the time to look at this last one ... and the third graph in particular, headed "Country by Country decline in Child mortality".

Incidentally, I cannot recommend this overall site highly enough for real information, to blow away far too many lies by interested parties.

81:

A decade or so ago, I was running an RPG series inspired by League of Extraordinary Gentlemen, Planetary, and the Wold Newton material, and I decided to bring in Peter Pan. So I read the play. That version of Peter was creepy, too; it seemed clear that he was a sociopath, beyond the measure of what's normal to little boys. So I don't think it will take any effort to make him horrifying, beyond being true to the source material. Barrie had a disturbing imagination.

82:

Oh, yeah < chomp, chomp >? It's worse... I've started writing it, and it's a sequel to my utterly silly story of "A hot date between RAHeinlein and JK Rowling, with tentacles".

Oh, and about Yog Sothoth being the Gate... um, y'know, Sigourney Weaver was the Gate in Ghostbusters, and....

83:

My deepest condolences. Hope friends left y'all lots of food.... I would if I lived near you.

Take care.

84:

Infant and maternal mortality's been going up in the US. "But, as you know Jim, the US has the best healthcare system in the world...."

85:

My condolences too. It's hard to lose family. I agree though, that it's so revealingly odd when parts of what makes us work break down.

Take care.

86:

Agreed. Have the durable power of attorney and advance directives ready.

Given some of the stupidity that happens ("what DNR? I don't see one. Let's do it anyway, we've only got a few minutes to resuscitate him and we can always let him die latter") I'm tempted to have Do Not Resuscitate tattooed over my sternum when I hit 60. Problem is, someone did that, and they still held him on life support for awhile, because they couldn't confirm that he actually meant what he'd tattooed on his chest. Having the directive tattooed on your body is not considered sufficient. Somehow, you're supposed to be unresponsive and still get the doctors the paperwork their lawyers require to be allowed to pass in peace.

88:

He forgot to have the tattooist add his signature.

89:

Oh, I think the idea's positively infectious. That makes it to the point about infectious ... intelligencies. Or something similar. Think about Dreamcatcher. We can not guarantee that some form of microbal life wouldn't find a way.

There were other two examples I recount from my reading exerience - the first one is a late-Lem novel called "Fiasco". Although we never see the aliens and understand what are they, but we witness hints that they may be somewhat non-corporeal organism akin to fungi or microbes.

The second one is one of Russian writes, which wrote his book in 1998, about a year before Stiven King - although his novel is about 10 timnes shorter and I don't think it is notable for it's literature achievements. It was never translated, unfortunately, but there are original copies on the net available (Google Translate does a decent job at parsing it). That would make a cool sci-fi movie IMO. https://fantlab.ru/work8456

Long story short, the idea is that people make contact with an organism that arrived to the Earth in a spaceship, not as an organizm, but rather a colony of microorganisms, that exhibit extraordinary ability for coordination and possess a form of intelligence. They were attracted in the middle of the century by nuclear tests. Among other things, they've contacted several governments and one of their ships was brought for study into the secret complex build somewhere in the woods. Unfortunately for humanity, after a long time, it turned out that the aliens started to become more successful in studiyng humans.

90:

My understanding from the story was that his DNR was tattoo-signed, but the question was about whether he'd since had "tattoo regret" as reportedly 50% of tattoo recipients have expressed. The same article quotes one case of someone who got a DNR tattoo and latter regretted it, and also said that the medical ethicist who initially ruled that the first dude's tattoo was good enough was later overruled.

I think the bottom line is that, unless there's someone speaking up for you when you're unresponsive, your wishes are not guaranteed to be honored no matter how clearly you express them. I wonder how a tattoo that says "Do NOT resuscitate me. My estate will sue you personally for negligence if try" would be honored, but I'm cynical and grumpy these days.

91:

Intelligent microbes have been used in everything from the X-Files to Blood Music to a couple of James White's Sector General stories.

That kind of wasn't my point about the great old ones being microbes, but whatever. Why should we assume that intelligence is what makes things important? Microbes run the world, and I don't see any signs they think much on the job. We exist because of the black hole in the center of the galaxy, that created the gas spirals that eventually gave rise to our solar system and eventually us, but there's no evidence that that particular creator is anything other than a mindless, sucking abyss. That's a different kind of Lovecraftian horror, the ultimate meaninglessness of the things we value.

92:

You'd probably have to do something like have your children sign it as well, and then have a new date tattooed every six months.

On the subject of Great Old Ones as cells, how's this for a story idea:

The Great Old Ones came to Earth in the dawn ages and then, (due to the war with the Elder Gods?) split into singular organisms which hid deep in the Earth, around deep ocean vents, etc., Then at some point a human graduate student decides to put some deep-earth cells through mazes. S/he is astounded by their intelligence, and continues to devise harder and harder tests. It turns out that these cells are very intelligent indeed, and eventually they learn to decode their own owner's manuals. They reassemble, and guess who's back?

93:

Yes indeed, current Anglo-American attitudes towards death and dying are "opaque and forbidding"; I'd even say that is an understatement. And here in the States, attitudes towards grief and grieving are even more troubling (perhaps that's true in the U.K. as well). At best, grief is treated as a psychopathology that you're supposed to treat by going to a psychotherapist; at worst, grief is ignored or trivialized or ridiculed.

I suspect one of the reasons people in the States dislike grief so much is that grief tends to make you less productive; no wonder, then, that grief is perceived as pathological, since being productive is one of the highest goods in our U.S. society; anything that makes you less productive must be bad. However, in my own experience, once I was willing to become less productive and actually grieve, I felt grief made me more human. This raises the interesting question: what's our highest goal, to be more productive, or to be more human?

When the second parent dies, it seems to me that grief can become more complex. When my father died two years ago (I was then 56), all of a sudden my siblings and I had no parents at all; suddenly there was no one older than us to look up to. I felt this strongly, even though my father was unable to speak or communicate for the last year and a half of my father's life. Mind you, I don't want to generalize from my experience and tell anyone else what they're going to feel; but when I talk with my contemporaries who have lost both parents, they seem to have experienced something quite similar.

And I have NO advice on how to grieve. The NY Times article quoted above valorizes psychotherapeutic approaches to grieving, and I'm sure such approaches will work for many people in our societies which value professionalism so highly. But my attempts to talk about grief to a psychotherapist were not particularly helpful; and a grief support group facilitated by a healthcare professional I found to be actively unhelpful. What I found personally helpful was: a grief support group that was facilitated by lay people who had themselves experienced serious grief; a non-dogmatic religious community (most of whom were skeptics and atheists); and, oddly enough, singing with Sacred Harp singers (most Sacred Harp music is on the topic of death). The commonality in these three things, I think, was finding a community of ordinary people who do not shy away from talking openly about death. Yet while these things worked for me, I don't claim they will work for anyone else; in a society with "opaque and forbidding" attitudes towards death and grief, it's hard to know what will be helpful.

94:

I've got a much better idea, actually, but I'm not sharing it, because I'm starting to write that particular story.

95:

I'll look forward to seeing it, and would be happy to be a beta reader.

96:

When my mother died I had a terrible time being able to grieve. This was a combination of my mother's decision to forgo immediate cancer surgery so she could attend my sister's wedding - I was very, very angry about that, and still am anger, a ruinous funeral in which my mother's close friend, who performed the priestly role at the funeral, forgetting to mention my name as one of the relatives of the deceased, plus the presence in my consciousness of long-running arguments with my spouse which were of immediate consequence for my kids. Somehow in the midst of that I never managed a good cry (or to cry at all, for that matter) or to have any kind of grieving process.

97:

For some reason I have always thought of a green funeral as comforting.

Just plant a tree on top of me, preferably an oak.

https://therevelator.org/make-death-green-again/?fbclid=IwAR3sYrdns0K-tCkA7FsXnRz8IE8Kx6smGONh9QXL5onUy_3yD4dn12Tsksw

Make Death Green Again

A more promising development is the rapid growth in various shades of “green,” or natural, burials. Requests are now so mainstream they occupy a solid niche in the funeral industry. Common options include non-toxic embalming methods, biodegradable shrouds or caskets, and cemeteries offering environmentally sound practices....

The council’s gold standard is the conservation burial ground, which meets all the requirements of a natural burial ground, but also must “specifically and exclusively” designate its lands in perpetuity for conservation. Such cemeteries must be under a conservation easement or similar deed restriction...

Like other natural options, entombment at Glendale costs a fraction of a traditional burial and avoids the waste and pollution of modern burial practices. Small, simple markers indicate each grave, and the area has trails for walking. A quarter of all burial receipts support the area’s conservation, including restoration of its long leaf pine forest. In this way the land promises connectivity with other wild habitats in Florida’s quickly developing landscape, a vast improvement over traditional cemeteries.

98:

Heteromeles @ 27: Oh, and about Lost Boys? I Amazoned it and found that the vampire movie had spawned sequels, so yeah, that's a bit too muddy for a good title. Too bad Seanan McGuire's taken "Wayward Children" already. Perhaps something like "The Laundry's Lost Children" or "The Laundry's Wayward Children?" I wouldn't suggest "The Misguided Children" because SEO sinks that search into the morass of American right-wingiana.

Misguided Children will always be inextricably linked in my mind to one of my former college buddies who dropped out to become one of Uncle Sam's Misguided Children.

99:

I've never been the executor of a will but modern death requires a lot of paperwork.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303627104576410234039258092

The 25 Documents You Need Before You Die

Will Letter of instruction Trust documents Living will Life insurance policies Do-not-resuscitate order Tax returns 401K accounts List of all bank accounts All user names and passwords Personal and medical family history Durable health-care power of attorney Authorization to release heath care information Housing, land and cemetary deeds Marriage license Divorce papers Escrow mortgage accounts Stock certificates, savings bonds and brokerage accounts Proof of loans made and debts owed Vehicle titles Partnership and corporate operating agreements Individual retirement accounts Pension documents Annuity contracts List of safe deposit boxes

100:

David L @ 35:

Not a day goes by that I'm not reminded of mom or dad,

Yes. My father passed in 2001 and every now and then I think I'll call him to ask his opinion for till I remember he is gone.

My dad was 54 when he died in 1976. I still miss him and we didn't even get along that well. My mom lived to be 92, passing in 2014 just a week or so before the first anniversary of her only surviving sibling's passing. She was the last of her generation. That's still a bit raw, but I'm comforted to know she had a good long life & only a short illness before she passed peacefully in her sleep.

I don't think you ever get over it, but with time the pain dulls substantially. Take time to grieve and know that we'll still be here whenever you have a new book to share.

101:

whitroth @ 84: Infant and maternal mortality's been going up in the US. "But, as you know Jim, the US has the best healthcare system in the world...."

The words of the "Bahamian Lullaby" have never been more true.

If life were a thing that money could buy
The rich would live and the poor would die.

102:

First off - thank you all for the kind words. I've lurked reading this place for absolutely years, but only recently made an account as I had suddenly had some time to kill that is not normally available to me.

91 : I read blood music yonks ago when I was a teenager and only realised quite some time later it had become a full novel. I vaguely remember thinking it worked better in the shorter format.

On the subject of DNR's I was recently surprised to learn that they can be applied (in the UK at least) on the recommendation of Doctors without involvement of the family. It happens, and then thanks to medical bureaucracy and the scarcity of resources in the NHS your opportunity to ask a useful question about is severely restricted. A blessing in disguise in the end, but it wasn't something I was aware of until now.

93 : r.e grief and suchlike. I have recently been subjected to rather more funerals than I would like, having managed to successfully avoid them for most of my life. Personally I don't find them especially helpful, though maybe I am atypical in that regard. I missed all of my grandparents, the earliest ones as a function of age, the later ones voluntarily and then finally as a matter of unfortunate family politics and work. It seems helpful to some people, so more power to them, but were it down solely to me I wouldn't bother.

My nephew is 4 and although my sister wanted to any all religions connotations - when he asked if granddad was in the sky she couldn't say anything but yes. I can't think of anyone else close to me who has done anything much different and so maybe the lack of general mortality around has reduced our ability to talk about these things. It's a shocking occurrence now rather than an everyday one and surrounded by a sort code of silence that makes it all the harder when it does happen.

Work in as much as it lends a framework and routing is in some sense helpful but being asked to do anything particularly complex can be..challenging. I can't imagine trying to do something creative when your head is in that place though.

103:

Intelligent microbes have been used in everything from the X-Files to Blood Music to a couple of James White's Sector General stories. I did't see too much of these examples, but, anyway, this isn't what I was trying to illustrate. I'm not talking about just some microbes with brains, in the previous examples there's actual theory and world-building involved. They always have some other pretty impressive abilities coming in package with their intelligence too, and the behaviour of these organisms isn't even remotely human-like (authors usually struggle to make it so, anyway). It is because they are as far from regular microbes as we are, just in some other direction.

They reassemble, and guess who's back? Oh, that'd be a bit different plot. The fact that there's nothing intelligent can be found out there can scare people much more than any actual tentacled horror. Like asking "What if we were just wrong all along?"

104:

So, um, when was the last time you noticed one of the top billionaires dying? They just seem to keep getting older. It's fascinating.

105:

I don't recommend diving too deep into Uncle Sam's Misguided Children. It's a group that claims to be USMC veterans and is active on the US right wing.

Misguided Children would be a lovely title, but considering that the above group seems to control most of the top search engine hits on that, you'll probably have to deal with them, and it's not worth the effort.

On the other hand, I suspect most of us would read a story called "Naughty Children" by Charlie Stross. There's nothing by that title on Amazon, for instance.

106:

Here's a list from 2017: https://www.forbes.com/sites/maddieberg/2018/03/06/from-the-worlds-richest-woman-to-a-strangled-mogul-the-billionaires-who-died-in-the-last-year/ Can't say I recognize many of them. Steve Jobs (2011) was the last such death that that instantly comes to mind.

107:

The fact that there's nothing intelligent can be found out there can scare people much more than any actual tentacled horror. Like asking "What if we were just wrong all along?"

Yes, that's part of the fascination of the Fermi Paradox. There are lots of uncertainties about it that can be expressed in the various pieces of the Drake Equation, but the big one that goes unexpressed is, as you say, "What if we were just wrong all along?"

Notions of the fundamental nature of reality have been changing fairly frequently for centuries, and there's no particular reason to think that our current one is going to last indefinitely.

108:

Yeah, models are getting more interesting.

The one I don't think people have factored in all that much is the presumed lifecycle of terrestrial planets. They start as molten balls and cool. AFAIK, water seems necessary for plate tectonics, which in turn are necessary for a lot of nutrient cycling, which in turn is necessary to keep a complex biosphere with an oxygen atmosphere turning over.

Current thinking is that, in the beginning, Earth's crust was too thin and hot to really do the plate tectonics thing. Ergo, slow nutrient cycling, ergo microbial life at best. As it cooled down, the surface got thick enough that we got the roiling boil that is plate tectonics. Eventually, all the reducing agents got oxidized and buried, and we had an oxygen atmosphere, which is the only one known (outside possible exotica involving chlorine) that supports multicellular life. That's after four billion years.

We've had multicellular life for maybe 500-1,000 million years now. It may go for another 500-1,000 million years, before the heating sun means that all forms of photosynthesis stop working, at which point something else better be working or the atmosphere stops being full of oxygen. Earth's crust will continue to cool and thicken, and eventually (500-1,000 million years or more), Earth's tectonic plates will grind to a halt, possibly with a big Olympus Mons-like eruption near the last big hot spot. At that point, nutrient cycling through volcanoes slowly breaks down. The biosphere becomes a hotter, poorer place, and the world's left to the great old ones, the microbes, once again.

Something like this probably happens to all terrestrial planets. If they're too small (like Mars) they don't get a stage of active plate tectonics, and if they don't have water (like Venus) they may not either. They may get plenty of time around a red dwarf but not around a hotter star. On the other hand, a red dwarf planet could easily cool down and be too old to host anything other than bacteria.

109:

The problem with the Fermi paradox is: if there are other alien civilizations more advanced than our own, then their presence should obvious. Their heat signatures should light up the night sky.

Whether it's Dyson spheres or swarms, starships travelling even a fraction of the speed of light, powerful telecommunication and navigation beacons, etc. - an alien civilization should be obvious like a searchlight shining in our face

We should be able to see the presence of a Kardeshev Type II civilization with the naked eye.

But we see.... nothing.

It is looking more and more likely that we are all alone.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/06/but-seriously-where-is-everybody/563498/

https://qz.com/1314111/we-may-have-answered-the-fermi-paradox-we-are-alone-in-the-universe/

"Many solutions have been proposed to solve this riddle, known as the Fermi Paradox. The aliens are hiding. They’ve entered suspended animation until more propitious conditions arise. A Great Filter makes the leap from “life “to “intelligent life” improbable, if not impossible. They’ve blown themselves up.Researchers of Oxford University’s Future of Humanity Institute have another answer. It’s likely intelligent life doesn’t exist at all, outside of Earth."

No Klingons. No Wookies. No ET phoning home.

Just us.

Maybe because Earth is a VERY rare place. Even more rare is a large companion moon.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucedorminey/2013/04/21/rare-earth-revisited-anomalously-large-moon-remains-key-to-our-existence/#4dd8438035ed

The explanation of the Fermi Paradox in accordance with Occam's Razor:

We are all alone in the galaxy, if not the universe.

110:

And don't expect to find any Ancient Old Ones or the Engineers from "Prometheus". Gamma ray bursts kept life from developing for mos of the history of the universe.

Gamma ray bursts (GRBs) in the early galaxy snuffed out life repeatedly before it could get a foothold.

http://io9.com/is-it-time-to-accept-that-were-alone-in-the-universe-1654960619

James Annis of Fermilab in Illinois proposed that GRBs could cause mass extinction events on any habitable planet within a distance of 10,000 light-years from the source. To put that into perspective, the Milky Way is 100,000 light-year across and about 1,000 light-years thick. Thus, a single GRB would extinguish life across a sizeable portion of the galaxy.

According to new work conducted by astronomers Tsvi Piran and Raul Jimenez, the odds that a planet could be hit by a GRB depends on its place in space and time. The closer that a planet is to the galactic core, where the density of stars is much greater, the odds increase. Their models show that a planet near to the core has a 95% chance of being hit by a catastrophic GRB at least once every billion years. Pulling back a bit, about half of the solar systems in the Milky Way are close enough such that there's an 80% chance of a GRB per billion years.

But here's where it gets interesting: The frequency of GRBs were greater in the past owing to lower levels of metallicity in the galaxy. Metal-rich galaxies (i.e. those with significant accumulations of elements other than hydrogen and helium) feature less gamma-ray bursts. Thus, as our galaxy becomes richer in metals, the frequency of GRBs decreases. What this means is that prior to recent times (and by recent we're talking the past 5 billion years or so), GRB extinction events were quite common. And in fact, some scientists suspect that the Earth was struck by a GRB many billions of years ago. Piran and Jimenez figure that these events were frequent and disbursed enough across the Milky Way to serve as constant evolutionary reset buttons, sending habitable planets back to the microbial dark ages before complex life and intelligence had a chance to develop further. Fascinatingly, before about 5 billion years ago, GRBs were so common that life would have struggled to maintain a presence anywhere in the cosmos (yes, the entire cosmos).

So, we are alone in the galaxy. In fact, we are the oldest civilization in the galaxy.

WE are the "Ancient Old Ones". Our purpose as a species is to spread intelligent life throughout the galaxy and we seed the universe with our kind (like the Engineers in the Prometheus movie).

Again let me reiterate - WE are the Engineers who will seed the universe.

111:

The fact that there's nothing intelligent can be found out there can scare people much more than any actual tentacled horror. Like asking "What if we were just wrong all along?"

So either we're the first (at least as things stand now; we're one gamma ray burst or nearby supernova away from extinction) as Daniel states above, or everyone else died somehow. I have to say that I'm not particularly frightened of dying due to a natural disaster - that's scary, but not "horrifying" in the Lovecraftian sense - but the idea of being the first could be morally difficult. I've got to think about that one a little.

112:

So either we're the first (at least as things stand now; we're one gamma ray burst or nearby supernova away from extinction) as Daniel states above, or everyone else died somehow.

Or they're out there, but we can't sense them, because...

--nobody's stupid enough to use high energy radios for more than a few decades (we already went through that phase decades ago), and since that's the only thing we can currently detect, we think that no one's there.

---And/or they all used up all their fossil fuels and got stuck in a low energy sustainable civilization that's invisible on an interstellar scale but lasts millions of years.

--And/or interstellar travel is impossible, so there's no spreading cloud of colonization for us to notice or be worried about, and we just can't detect civilizations on exoplanets.

--And/or interplanetary travel is impossible for complex planetary life forms, because they inevitably evolve to require gravity and atmosphere-level radiation shielding, and so they remain stuck on planets, so there's no spreading cloud of colonization to notice or be worried about, and we just can't detect civilization on exoplanets....

....Or interstellar travel is possible, but interstellar civilization is so hard on planets that one can only survive on a planet for a few centuries, so they're constantly colonizing new planets and abandoning old ones, and only a few interstellar civilizations active at this point, almost all the planets in the galaxy are in fallow recovering (they need on order 100 million years to regenerate a load of fossil fuels, for example, and that much time will also expose more mineral bodies that are too deep now to exploit), and we just happen to be outside the range at which we can detect active civilizations at the moment.

Feel better yet?

113:

I'm aware of all those issues; a lifetime reading science-fiction guarantees that, but I'm trying to think about the hazards of being first, and I think I've only read one story about that.

(The real problem here is that if a species is as curious and capable as we are, a gap of a hundred-thousand years might never be overcome - that's a long time to work on fixing your genes and turning high-energy physics into engineering if your species was so inclined.)

But the hazards of being first... interesting.

As to oil... hypothetically we could kill maybe 2-300 carefully targeted people and never have to worry about having a petroleum economy again. I'm not saying we should, mind you, (though it's pleasant fantasy) but it wouldn't take much energy to turn the tide at this point.

But the hazards of being first... will my descendants be Cthulhu?

114:

As to oil... hypothetically we could kill maybe 2-300 carefully targeted people and never have to worry about having a petroleum economy again.

You'd have to kill a couple of billion poor people in India and Africa to stop worrying about a coal economy though, and knock off another couple of billion in the developed world to get rid of gas, fracked or otherwise. Absent that sort of solution people desperate for energy will dig and drill and pump and frack until there's no free/cheap energy left under their feet.

115:

Nojay, in this case Troutwaxer's right. While there are large petrochemical industries all over the world, there's a tiny handful of people (obvious examples include the Koch Brothers, some Russian strongmen and oligarchs, some members of the House of Saud, and certain members of the Pentagon top brass and the current administration) who play a huge role in keeping billions in subsidies flowing toward oil production, and who work to make sure oil is favored by regulation and contract and other possibilities are not. Get them out of the way, and the world changes radically.

A lot of us don't like being forced to be complicit in an oil economy and are furious when our attempts to make other choices are deliberately hindered by people who have no interest in us, aside from that we might affect their monthly proceeds by a few pennies. Fortunately, a lot of this power is clustered in a very few hands. If those hands, say, became totally enlightened and found more compassionate uses for their time, that wouldn't mean overnight that people would stop burning coal in India, but it would probably change the course and speed of the world's adaptations to different energy technology.

116:

they need on order 100 million years to regenerate a load of fossil fuels

Process efficiently turns algae into biocrude oil. Takes a couple of minutes. This was 4 years ago. There was talk of setting up a pilotplant but I don't know how that worked out.

117:

Deaths and Deadlines. Stroke! That sucks. I can relate to that with my mother having had the same thing happen to her. Fortunately for her the misery ended after 3 months, in death. I wish she could still be here but given the event it would have been better if she had died the same day. It was just stretching out misery for 3 months. A fucking rolling coaster from hell of emotions is how I remember it. My thoughts are with you and I hope your mums ordeal comes to an end soon.

118:

Heteromeles @ 105 I'd be careful with "Naughty Children" - it might get you into either/or/and dubious sexual practices & bondage memes ...

DD @ 109 "Obvious" ?? What about, even just in the Niven Known Space ... The Outsiders, or the Puppeteers who moved their planet away from theor sun, because of heat And any FTL drives would probably be undetectable to us? Also Star-Trek "cloaking Devices" ?? If a Dyson sphere was more than 100ly away, would we be able to see it, or would it register as a Brown Star?

Your argument is another version of the usual religious one that "WE are SPECIAL" - chosen by the BigSkyFairy, too & at the centre of the universe ... oops. but @ 110 - that is possible, though. Scary that we might not succeed.

Ro 67 @ 116 Probably bought up & suppressed by some very greedy people, I suspect.

119:

Condolences on what has surely been a thoroughly unpleasant time.

a couple of weeks in Sydney or Melbourne

If you are in Sydney I would be happy to buy you dinner or whatever suits you. Given the slightly disorganised lodging house I appear to run I might even have a spare room if you feel like staying with some random geezer off the internet. Of course, at some times of the year the cold taps run hotter than the hot taps for a disturbingly long time although fortunately the aircon has never got to the "it's too hot outside, I give up" level.

120:

Something like this probably happens to all terrestrial planets. If they're too small (like Mars) they don't get a stage of active plate tectonics, and if they don't have water (like Venus) they may not either. They may get plenty of time around a red dwarf but not around a hotter star

Ooh! Ooh! And here's a thought:

More massive planets hold onto their hydrogen better in the long term (escape velocity is higher so solar UV splitting of water in the high atmosphere doesn't result is as much hydrogen ion leakage), so have much more time for plate tectonics to continue. But then any multicellular life that develops a technosphere runs into the rocket equation: getting into orbit becomes much harder. (I'm assuming chemical rocketry, that nobody is going to be dumb enough to use nuclear propulsion extensively inside the upper atmosphere.) And if they do get into orbit, the metabolic upset caused by accommodation to reduced gravity may be even more serious than the ones we've already run into.

So there could be plenty of long-lived super-Earths with elaborate biospheres out there, but any intelligences they produce are trapped at the bottom of the gravity well.

(/end speculation — I find the more recent proposal that the Drake equation is just plain wrong and the Fermi paradox can be explained in terms of statistical distributions replacing the terms in the DE a lot more plausible.)

121:

Nice idea: but note that the Milky Way will experience a new wave of GRBs in about 2Bn years, and another one 2.5Bn years down the line from that?

In 2Bn years the Large Magelanic Cloud is going to collide with our own galaxy, destabilizing the core—it's proposed that the Sag A* central black hole could even reawaken as a quasar—and throwing lots of stars around. Then 4.5Bn years from now, our galaxy and M31 will collide, so we'll have two big-ass galactic central black holes tangoing for a while, not to mention billions of stellar near-misses. Which all spells "loadsa GRBs" to me.

Basically we really have to wait for the entire Local Group to settle down before we can look forward to a largely GRB-free era dominated by long-lived red dwarfs.

122:
Infant mortality pre-5 dropped precipitously throughout the 19th century, as did maternal death in childbirth: from about 50% (around 1800) to 20% (by 1900).
Still terrible by modern standards, with social implications we can only grasp via abstract reasoning: death was everywhere, and families large, and women averaged 4-5 pregnancies each (not counting miscarriages). Feed those assumptions into the SF world-building machine and the society you crank out at the other end won't look a lot like ours.

I have to disagree with OGH here. To me this description sounds almost exactly like present-day Tanzania (where I lived till 2010, and still have many connections to; I regularly get news of the ordinary and normal deaths of people who were my pupils in secondary school 10 years ago, or the births and deaths of their children, or the deaths of my former colleagues in their 40's or 50's; in short: death is normal and everywhere, and families are large, thus the office is closed - because everybody goes to the funeral of some relative of one of the co-workers - at least once a week; the only thing that indeed goes down is the average number of children per woman, most people I know want to have 'only' three children). And I don't think it's a stretch to assume that everyday reality is just the same or very similar in another 100 countries (give or take) on this planet right now. 100 countries which hold the majority of all currently living human beings, nota bene. So, actually the 'modern standards' Charlie refers to seem to be the exception, not the rule.

Which only goes to show the geographical/cultural biases of this anglo-american, first-world centered blog (which I don't blame anyone for).

123:

In Lovecraftian terms, maybe the Great Old Ones are creatures that evolved during a previous local minima of GRBs, further evolved themselves, then estivated until the current minima. They will soon be waking to enjoy a GRB-free Galaxy, then will estivate again when the Large Magelanic Cloud arrives. (If you're sleeping on an obscure planet near the edge of the Galaxy, under a thousand feet of water, like Cthulhu, you're probably pretty safe from radiation events.)

124:

Okay, let's call it "post-Demographic Transition stage 3/4" rather than "modern".

The modernity lies in the medical practices that make this lifestyle possible—one where family planning is relatively easy and universally available, and where diseases of childhood and accidents are largely avoidable. All of which requires hugely expensive but largely invisible infrastructure, not just hospitals and medics: compare the road traffic accident outcomes in the developing world with western Europe, for example.

Mass vaccination campaigns? Infrastructure. Traffic lights and road signage? Infrastructure. Sewers and safe-to-drink tap water? Infrastructure. Teaching kids how to cross the road safely? Infrastructure.

125:

"WE are SPECIAL"

No, we are rare. Very rare. As in rare Earth with an even rarer large stabilizing moon.

Any advanced alien civilization even a few 10,000s of years ahead of us should have spread throughout most of the galaxy by now, building Dyson spheres/swarms in every colonized star system which would give of a heat signature far different than a brown dwarf, piloting vast armadas of starships whose acceleration and deceleration should light up that sky as they move at relativistic speeds, and using massively powerful communication/navigation beacons that should be as obvious as a light house to ships at sea.

Humanity is currently about a Type 0.7 on the Kardashev scale and probably won’t obtain Type 1 status (commanding the energy of an entire planet) for another 100 to 200 years. A Type 2 (controlling the energy of entire solar system) would be capable of regular starflight. Such a civilization (Earth in 1,000 years?) would be able to build and launch fleets of massive starships.

And they would have to be massive. A Project Orion design would be the most practical approach to interstellar travel. Just find a good sized nickel-iron asteroid. Hollow it out and shape it to look like a pencil. The sharp end is pure mass shielding at an acute deflective angle (like sloped armor on a tank). The rear is a reactive plate where the nuclear charges go off accelerating the craft. The entire ship is spun on its longitudinal axis to provide artificial gravity on the inside walls of the hollowed out interior.

But no matter what the design, such a craft would give off immense amounts of heat during acceleration, from impact with atoms and dust between the stars while moving at even 10%c, and when decelerating upon arrival. Such heat would be visible across thousands of light years and be especially noticeable because it is moving at relativistic speeds. Any star-faring civilization would have thousands of these rapidly moving heat generators cruising between the stars and it would be impossible to hide their heat signature.

The other mega-structure built by a Type II star cruising civilization would be a Dyson swarm or sphere. These would also generate huge amounts of energy as waste heat in the infra-red range. There was actually a recent attempt to detect alien Dyson spheres using the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS).

https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2008/11/19/searching-for-dyson-spheres/

"The idea being to look for objects that seem to be radiating waste heat in such a way that they might be Dyson Spheres of one kind or another. A fully enveloped star won’t be visible to the eye, but Carrigan’s infrared search covers the blackbody temperature region from 100 to 600 degrees Kelvin for full or partial Spheres. The data come from an IRAS database that covers 96 percent of the sky and includes some 250,000 sources. Exciting stuff on the face of it, because unlike a conventional SETI search, a hunt for Dyson Spheres involves no necessary intent to communicate on the part of the civilization in question."

But again, nothing.

And in the grand scheme of things it would take relatively little time for an advanced alien civilization to spread across the galaxy. Simply have each ship replicate itself once it reaches another star, sending out two more probes (or 10, or 100) Take one probe and double it only 19 times and you have over a million probes and as many colonies spreading throughout the galaxy.

So given that:

A. It only takes one space-faring intelligent species to spread across the galaxy. B. Using self replicating craft it can spread across the galaxy very quickly. C. Such a civilization and its ships would generate massive amounts of heat and radio waves that can be seen from anywhere in the galaxy D. There are no such heat or radio signs anywhere of such a species.

We can conclude:

There are no other intelligent species in the galaxy (every other argument is special pleading).

P.S. See Dvorsky's column "Is it Time to Accept that We Are All Alone in the Universe?

http://io9.com/is-it-time-to-accept-that-were-alone-in-the-universe-1654960619

126:

The best family planning is to simply educate girls.

In fact, we may have already grossly over estimated how large the world's population will get given the advances in technology that bring knowledge and education to girls and the changes in expectations and attitudes towards child bearing even in the Third World.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-world-might-actually-run-out-of-people/

The World Might Actually Run Out of People

But what if they’re wrong? Not like, off by a rounding error, but like totally, completely goofed?

That’s the conclusion Canadian journalist John Ibbitson and political scientist Darrell Bricker come to in their newest book, Empty Planet, due out February 5th. After painstakingly breaking down the numbers for themselves, the pair arrived at a drastically different prediction for the future of the human species. “In roughly three decades, the global population will begin to decline,” they write. “Once that decline begins, it will never end.”

There was a moment when we were sitting in this little school in Srinivaspuri, listening to a focus group of 13 or 14 women who lived there. And I kept seeing this faint glow light up under their saris. I didn’t know what it was. And then I saw one woman reach in and pull out a smartphone, look at it, and put it back. And I realized, here we are in a slum in Delhi, and all these women have smartphones. Who can read. Who have data packages. And I was thinking, they have all of human knowledge in their hands now. What’s the impact of that going to be?

So, the UN forecasting model inputs three things: fertility rates, migration rates, and death rates. It doesn’t take into account the expansion of education for females or the speed of urbanization (which are in some ways linked). The UN says they’re already baked into the numbers. But when I went and interviewed [the demographer] Wolfgang Lutz in Vienna, which was one of the first things we did, he walked me through his projections, and I walked out of the room gobsmacked. All he was doing was adding one new variable to the forecast: the level of improvement in female education. And he comes up with a much lower number for global population in 2100, somewhere between 8 billion and 9 billion.

Lutz has this saying that the most important reproductive organ for human beings is your mind. That if you change how someone thinks about reproduction, you change everything. Based on his analysis, the single biggest effect on fertility is the education of women. The UN has a grim view of Africa. It doesn’t predict much change in terms of fertility over the first quarter of the century. But large parts of African are urbanizing at two times the rate of the global average. If you go to Kenya today, women have the same elementary education levels as men. As many girls as boys are sitting for graduation exams. So we’re not prepared to predict that Africa will stagnate in rural poverty for the rest of the century.

We polled 26 countries asking women how many kids they want, and no matter where you go the answer tends to be around two. The external forces that used to dictate people having bigger families are disappearing everywhere. And that's happening fastest in developing countries. In the Philippines, for example, fertility rates dropped from 3.7 percent to 2.7 percent from 2003 to 2018. That's a whole kid in 15 years. In the US, that change happened much more slowly, from about 1800 to the end of the Baby Boom. So that’s the scenario we’re asking people to contemplate.

P.S. Patriarchal religious leaders (are there any major religions run by women?) know this in their hearts. Whether it's real fundies like the Taliban or Quiverfull movements, or the fictional Handmaids Tale, they know that educated women have fewer children. Which is why they are so against educating girls. Religions grow by either conversion or birthrates, and the leaders of these religions have more control over the second factor. And from a purely Darwinian point of view they are correct - which is really ironic when you think about it.

127:

Why is it such a common mental flaw in humans to personalise power?

Yes, there are a few hundred dominant 'leaders' for the oil industry, but none of them are anything exceptional, and removing them would simply cause replacements to arise. Some organisations might disrupt and there would be some disruption, but it would be smoothed over in a year or two. It is the system and the organisations that are the problems, not the front men.

128:

We are almost certainly rare, yes, but the stabilising moon hypothesis isn't really supported by evidence or sound analysis. It's a very plausible explantion for our situation, but we simply don't know whether there are other paths to our sort of biosphere, nor the distribution of suitable planets.

You conclusion replies on special pleading, too. Inter alia, 100 Kly at 0.0001c is 1 billion years, which is a significant proportion of the time since our galaxy evolved. And it also assumes that all intelligent species are expansionist - perhaps we are exceptional in that, too?

I am happy to accept such conclusions provided they are qualified by words like 'probably', but their proponents seem very reluctant to admit uncertainty.

129:

I have to agree with Greg - any argument saying that "We are special, we are the centre of the universe" should, IMO be treated with suspicion. After all, fully anatomically modern Homo sapiens have been around for 200,000 - 300,000 years (and the number keeps getting pushed back). And that's just the duration of our species - not the planet as a whole. Whereas radio was invented in 1895 - 124 years ago. Not that it was strong enough to reach interstellar distances by then, of course.

Troutwaxer @113: I also have problems with the 'all that is standing between us and utopia is the deaths of 200-300 people'. Go down that road any distance, and pretty soon you're invading Poland to make the world a better place.

130:

"And it also assumes that all intelligent species are expansionist - perhaps we are exceptional in that, too?"

Yes... Assuming that there really isn't some clever way to wriggle round Einstein that we don't know about, I do wonder if what happens is that species are only "expansionist" while they are still at the same kind of level as we are - ie. lots of fantasising about it but zip of actually doing it. Once they get to the level where they could feasibly do it, they also have a far greater awareness than fantasy provides of just how much of a shedload of hassle it is, and that any problem "down here" to which a solution might possibly exist "out there" also has many other solutions which are purely locally based and far more useful because they don't involve waiting several lifetimes before you can even get started (or other even more serious impracticalities)... and so they decide to leave the idea to the realm of fantasy because really what. is. the. frigging. point.

Maybe some species do do it but those species also have lifetimes orders of magnitude longer than ours and a perception of time correspondingly slower (perhaps they evolved in a low energy environment - liquid methane, or something, instead of liquid water - so all their biochemistry runs very much slower) so journey times of hundreds or thousands of years are as feasible to them as sea voyages of a few years exploring this planet were to us. And they don't need to use tremendously high-powered propulsion systems to try and get the journey times down to a tolerable level. Everything they do is low speed, low temperature, low energy, low bitrate, so it's not very noticeable to begin with, and even more so when we live and die before they've finished saying hello.

131:

I think what Heteromeles and I are noting is the fragility of the consensus which makes us an oil-using society, and potentially how easy it could/should/would be to change that consensus. Lest anyone think I was serious about killing anybody, I think the big thing here is to forgive the oil executives. I think this is appropriate and (and possibly even just) because petroleum was the 'correct and popular' policy for a hundred years, and it's not completely horrible for those executives to have defended that policy.

But we definitely need to have a non-petroleum policy going forward.

132:

DD @ 125 piloting vast armadas of starships ... Yes, we should be able to see their sails as they come over the horizon .. Sorry, you are assuming that we would even RECOGNISE their technology. "OCP" &/or given say even half that timespan, 5 000 years ... so its the middle Bronze Age ... and a jetliner passes over, or a gas-turbine driven ship goes past Odysseus & he, or Jason's Argonouts are going to RECOGNISE this thing as a simple human technology?

And your example of an "orion" type starship is the exact reverse anaolgy - it's how Jason/Odysseus would think of as the only way possible of sailing past the Pillars to the open Atlantic & the New Worlds beyond ... except it would not work. ( I'll ignore Hanno the Phonecian for purposes of this discussion )

@ 126 The best family planning is to simply educate girls. That's the first half - the other half is CASTRATE all the priests. So they have smartphones in a slum in India - unless you do something about the religio-political setup it STILL won't do anything. India has tha BJP, remember, a mirror-image of the muslim nutters, what a suprise.

I note your "P.S." ... but I suspect you are far too optimistic. Religion has a terrible grip on too too many people's brains, I'm afraid.

133:

Yes, but one doesn't even need to speculate even that much. Mammalian species on earth very a great deal in invasive potential, and several have mechanisms to keep their population under control without expanding their range. We are among the most adaptable, omnivorous and expansionist of mammals, and there is no reason to believe that the last two aspects are linked to intelligence, or even technology.

Similarly, there is a technological oddity that I have been speculating about for some decades, and some science fiction writers have explored. Both biological and physical technologies were well-advanced 5-10,000 years ago, but it was the latter that really took off. Equally interestingly, the mathematics needed to enhance thei former (essentially statistics) is extremely recent, yet not for the reason that it critically depends on any other extremely late mathematics (*). If we had followed that path, voyaging to the stars would have remained as a "don't be silly" idea for much longer, possibly indefinitely.

(*) Measure theory notwithstanding. You don't need more than the 'discrete mathematics' being taught as a remedial subject in computer science to do that.

134:

Sorry, you are assuming that we would even RECOGNISE their technology.

Exactly. Our idea of how to go to the stars is a very primitive one. "What do you mean the human ship uses reaction mass? Don't they know how to szlirp?"

135:

Sort-of, and I didn't take the killing comment at face value. My point was that this is NOT a matter of just a few individuals, or even a few organisations, but one to do with the structure of society. Most people are fixated on an autocratic view of power, but it has rarely been like that as far back as history records. Yet people still continue to believe that it is, which is a major obstacle to change :-(

TECHNICALLY, it's easy to change - but politically and socially (and hence governmentally)? Look at the way that I was flamed over my doubts about electric vehicles in the UK. Most people claimed that they would start to sell and charging points would follow - I dissented, and recent statistics indicate that I was right, at least in the short term. Even if countries with functioning governments do convert, I am not expecting to be around when the UK does (I am 71), and it's not because it couldn't be done.

136:

"But then any multicellular life that develops a technosphere runs into the rocket equation: getting into orbit becomes much harder. (I'm assuming chemical rocketry, that nobody is going to be dumb enough to use nuclear propulsion extensively inside the upper atmosphere.) And if they do get into orbit, the metabolic upset caused by accommodation to reduced gravity may be even more serious than the ones we've already run into."

Getting into orbit from a Super-Earth would require different engineering, certainly, but does different automatically equate to difficult? One thought with the nuclear=dumb idea is it doesn't consider the imperatives that might govern such a project being started in the first place, and also the reality that a reason for inadvertently developing the technology might originate elsewhere.

The only reason we don't have nuclear reactors in our own atmosphere is because they are dumb compared to other technologies which have none of the downsides. Why develop an aircraft grade reactor when you have can have a fuel efficient turbofan for a fraction of the cost and risk? If you live on a super earth though, which has oceans that start at the size of the Pacific, and your enemy is twenty thousand miles away, they start to look like a good deal. Your society presumably develops some form of combustion engine to get airborne, but never develops aerial refuelling, for a start.

Alvin Weinberg and his team at Oak Ridge thought the aircraft reactor experiment was dumb when they were designing it, but it had funding attached and so they mentally rolled their eyes at the idea and got to work, as a means of developing their molten salt Thorium power reactor projects. (An even shittier example being Wernher von Braun himself, and his choice of technology and original employer.) If there is a paycheck people lend their minds to designing all sorts of dumb stuff.

For other situations though, the idea might not be dumb at all. The result could then be a reliable nuclear upper stage for a two stage system, which was developed in a planetary war that was intended to power long-range bombers. (Shooting one of them down over your own territory would be a seriously dumb idea.) That is something we never had the incentive to bother with or tackle in any serious way because our planet just isn't large enough for us to have to grasp the nettle and make the technology work. For us, ICBMs were the easy way to go. Technology as an act of desperation/a lack of options.

The opposite situation also exists. If the Earth was say, the size of Venus, just slightly smaller, a biosphere would probably have evolved as it did on Earth but the orbital velocity is only about 90% of ours. For them, getting offworld, even in a single stage rocket would be EASY, and certainly using dense fuels. For them, the need to design a rocket using liquid hydrogen, any airbreathing technology, and employing abtruse, non-obvious research into things like graphite fibres, and the development of compact guidance computers would be a bizarre extravagance. These technologies would have marginal gains for the mission, had no applications on the planet and so would never get funded either directly, or bootlegged as with Weinberg's desire for a molten-salt reactor, that was stripped of conventional funding by proponents of light-water designs.

We regard nuclear reactors in space as crazy, but then, we have other options that mean we don't have to bother with them.

137:

You're absolutely right about the difficulties of making the change. I think the big obstacle is what happens to the people hurt by the change, which would be major stockholders in oil companies, or oil executives and their families, etc. So if you want to make the change quickly, you need to buy out the oil companies, give the executives new jobs, retrain the workers, etc.

138:

Since people have STRONG OPINIONS about the viability of interplanetary and interstellar travel, I'm going to approach the difficulties of travel issue with a look at "inner space," aka the oceans.

It's a lesser tradition, but just as there were supposed to be cities on the Moon by now, according to the paleofuturists of the 50s and 60s, there were also supposed to be settlements under the sea. Instead, the best we've got are military submarines. Why is that?

Well, for one thing, it turns out the water is hard for humans to live in. The whole SEALAB experimental system has, I think, pretty much died, but then again, people living for months in a hopped up diving bell turned out to suck. 100% humidity, so nothing really dried, weird pressures so that any food that required bubbles (like bread) lost texture and flavor, creeping, annoying rashes and infections, a bit of nitrogen narcosis making everybody not themselves...for scientists working, the conditions were tolerable for the short term, just as technical divers doing underwater construction are willing to live under pressure for weeks at a time. But it's not an environment that you can have a normal or healthy family life in. James Nestor's Deep does a pretty good, if goofy, job of chronicling all the complexities of dealing with water under pressure, but the end result is that early optimistic trend projections based on the early progress of SCUBA technology and the Trieste bathyscaphe dropping to the bottom of the Mariana Trench were proven wrong by the face of real world complexity. We don't have a hotel on the abyssal plane, and we probably never will. Indeed, HPL's Deep Ones look increasingly out of place, the more we learn about the realities of the deep ocean (for one thing, they should be cephalopods, not armored frogs).

Similar things happened with space science. Early, optimistic projections about interplanetary travel were based on the idea that the biggest problem with vacuum was that there wasn't anything there for us to use. Unfortunately, it turns out that there is quite a bit of stuff out there, and it's moving faster than we can naturally react to it, so we need all sorts of technological safeguards and workarounds that no one thought of. It's also turning out that evolution geared us to depend on gravity for various essential functions, and we're still trying to find freefall alternatives for all the stuff we need gravity to do to us. And a few other things. But the Apollo program looks increasingly to be like the Trieste bathyscaphe. It worked great as a demonstration, but not as a beach-head. We're no closer to having a Sheraton on the Moon than we are to having one in the Mariana Trench.

Anyway, the world is more complex than we normally think, and we really are confined to a pretty narrow pressure range that only occurs on a small portion of the Earth's surface. Outer space is more complex still. The sad part is that people still place more faith in progress than they do in the realities that progress inevitably encounters.

139:

Well, sort of, again, though that's assuming that governments are not prepared to use their extreme powers. But you are underestimating how thoroughly oil dependency runs through most societies (definitely including the UK). Even people with no direct connection to the oil industry, like Greg Tingey, would be impacted. Buying off the shareholders, executives and employees is the cheap and easy bit.

140:

Given the energy density of hydrocarbon fuels and the lack of energy density of anything else I have to figure we are going to need to build a synthetic fuel industry. Carbon from air CO2 and hydrogen from water. To understate, not energy efficient, so need big non carbon sources of energy.

141:

"-And/or they all used up all their fossil fuels and got stuck in a low energy sustainable civilization that's invisible on an interstellar scale but lasts millions of years"

I'll put that in the same category as the following predictions

  • Shale oil is a ponzi scheme which will collapse financially ANY DAY NOW (been hearing this for the past 5 years, albeit intermittently)

  • Electric cars are not viable unless they have the same performance as ICE vehicles/ aren't financially viable with a 300 mile range/ can't get a 600-mile range https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/cars/894267/Tesla-Roadster-range-price-performance-specs-2020

  • Battery storage will never be financially viable (won't pay itself back in less than 10 years) https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/sep/27/south-australias-tesla-battery-on-track-to-make-back-a-third-of-cost-in-a-year

  • There's no class of passenger aircraft that can be electric

  • 142:

    Forgot this link which demolishes Western myths about electric cars in China, such as the myth that China's electric cars are 1% of new sales, as opposed to 7%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-08/china-s-electric-vehicles-put-traditional-engines-on-notic?srnd=opinion

    143:

    Sorry, you are assuming that we would even RECOGNISE their technology.

    We would recognize their heat signatures.

    Something that can't be hidden - no matter what technology they use.

    144:

    Interesting idea for a deep future SF series:

    Humanity achieves a Kardshev level 2 civilization and spreads across the galaxy (vol 1 - Spring)

    and a galaxy wide web of life and intelligence is established (vol 2 - Summer)

    followed by the bad times in 2 bn years when the Large Magelanic Cloud impacts (vol 3 - Fall)

    and forces every inhabited world to dig deep underground to escape the new GRBs (vol 4 - Winter)

    followed by a renewal as galactic civilization rises from the ashes (vol 5 - Resurrection)

    and re-establishes life and civilization everywhere (vol 6 - Assumption) as we achieve a Kardeshev level 3 civilization

    followed again very bad times 2bn years after that as the M131 collides with the Milky Way with black holes colliding and hurling stars at each other (vol 7 - Armageddon) with no place to hide

    but with the study of such impacts and their high energy physics leading to advances in FTL technology, time travel, wormholes, etc (vol 8 - Rapture) raising us to a Kardeshev 4 level civilization

    and the spread of a human civilization to multiple galaxies after harnessing this knowledge (vol 9 - New Jerusalem)

    145:

    I think it's highly probable that you're right, but what if... endothermic reactions are the very worst dead-end in science?

    146:

    Re: ' ... endothermic reactions are the very worst dead-end'

    Dumb question time ...

    I've heard of runaway exothermic reactions but not runaway endothermic ones. Nature seems to like symmetry so am wondering whether black holes could be classified as runaway endothermic reactions.

    147:

    So, um, when was the last time you noticed one of the top billionaires dying? They just seem to keep getting older. It's fascinating.

    These days most of them got their start in the 70s/80s as youngsters. Or later.

    So the big crop that showed up with tech are just now into their 60s.

    Plus most don't retire. Some studies have indicated that the biggest indicator of a soon death is retirement from a desk job to sedentary relaxation.

    148:

    If you do make it down to worldcon in NZ next year, then hopefully you will be able to take some time to see a bit of the country. Plenty to see and do, though admittedly if you prefer big cities we're a bit light on those.

    Hmmmm I might have to fly down to Wellington for worldcon next year.

    149:

    That has enormous potential to be a really great story, and I don't think anyone has done this before. May I suggest that you colonize this niche before someone else grabs it?

    In fact, I think the idea is so good that I will happily beta-read anything you write as long as the prose meets basic standards of non-horrible-ness.

    One more thought about GRBs, (and going back to Lovecraft) is that GRBs could be weapons in the war between the Elder Gods and the Great Old Ones, and globular clusters could be the remains of attempts to build high-energy weapons for use in God-vs-God struggles.

    150:

    I suspect one of the reasons people in the States dislike grief so much is that grief tends to make you less productive;

    That's one I've not heard of.

    I think a lot of it comes from 2 factors. First us boomers (I'm from the peak born in 54) were born to young parents and many had young grandparents. (I didn't) So death tended to be 2 or 3 generations removed.

    Second is unlike what I gather from reading here as to how it was in the UK and Europe, after WWII the generation that went to war wanted to put it into the past except for glorious movies and books. And they wanted their kids to not suffer in any way like they did growing up in the 30s. So most of my generation grew up isolated from a lot of hardship. (My mother was of this mindset, my father not so much so....)

    And I know this is not a universal situation but for many who had fathers with a GI bill education and great factory or desk job supplying stuff to the US and rest of the world in the 50s and 60s it was somewhat typical.

    As to those who have mentioned grandparents from the 1800s that's rare over here. My father's father was born in 1885 and was an outlier compared to most of my friends.

    151:

    Sorry, I meant exothermic. It should read "...exothermic endothermic reactions are the very worst dead-end"

    152:

    Re: 'Shale oil is a ponzi scheme ... collapse in 5 years ...'

    Maybe 5 years from when DT and shills [GOP] are kicked out of office thereby stop screwing with the EPA, NOAA, etc. funding.

    153:

    Maybe because Earth is a VERY rare place. Even more rare is a large companion moon.

    Even at very rare with billions of stars per galaxy and billions (trillions) of galaxies there still might be a few more of "us". But we might not be neighbors in any sense of the word.

    154:

    Augh! Screwed up again. Should read exactly as follows: "...exothermic reactions are the very worst dead-end"

    155:

    Type 1 status (commanding the energy of an entire planet) for another 100 to 200 years. A Type 2 (controlling the energy of entire solar system) would be capable of regular starflight. Such a civilization (Earth in 1,000 years?

    I think you might be off by a 0 or few. But it's not that significant in terms of a billion years. Unless it means you run out of local energy before you figure out how to work the solar system.

    156:

    Buying off the shareholders, executives and employees is the cheap and easy bit.

    Yep. Look at what shutting down the clothing mills in NC and SC did. It many ways it led to the election of the orange T 20 years later.

    Workers in an industry outnumber executives in 99.999% of the cases. And in the EU and US they vote. In other places they revolt.

    157:

    Shale oil is a ponzi scheme which will collapse financially ANY DAY NOW (been hearing this for the past 5 years, albeit intermittently)

    Agreed https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/03/business/energy-environment/texas-permian-field-oil.html

    Sorry if pay walled. But when Shell Oil says they are in something for the long haul you can bet it's not a 5 year plan.

    158:

    We would recognize their heat signatures.

    Something that can't be hidden - no matter what technology they use.

    That's highly contingent on the situation and just what heat signatures are being hidden. If the hiders know where the sensors they want to hide from are, then it would be possible to arrange to radiate the heat in directions where the sensors aren't. Secondary effects such as heating nearby objects would need to be considered, of course.

    Consider the JWST sunshield -- though intended to keep solar heat from reaching the telescope, it equally well keeps heat from the telescope side being radiated from the other side.

    https://jwst.nasa.gov/sunshield.html

    159:

    Heteromeles @ 105: I don't recommend diving too deep into Uncle Sam's Misguided Children. It's a group that claims to be USMC veterans and is active on the US right wing.

    Sucks when assholes take over a perfectly good euphemism and debase it.

    160:

    I think the Kardashev scale is deeply flawed, much like the Turing test for AI: it was an interesting talking point in the early 1950s but it embeds assumptions about technology and civilization that tell us more about the person who invented it and their blind spots than about the phenomenon under examination.

    In particular, the K scale assumes that raw energy utilization is the right metric to apply: a very 1930s-1960s Soviet approach. A more modern variant might look at information processing capacity, or bandwidth, or computational complexity: there may be other metrics not accessible to us because we simply don't have the metaphors and cognitive tools to handle them.

    Random example: suppose what we're looking for is processing of quantum entangled information—qubits—on a cosmological scale? (Plausible if (a) quantum computing turns out to be definitely achievable, and (b) useful). Given the stability issues affecting coherent states, we'd want to maximize the number of entangled particles, but they'd need to be as cold as possible—ideally well below cosmic background temperature: or, failing that, certainly cryogenic temperatures. (Entangled systems at room temperature have been demonstrated but they tend to decohere much more rapidly than supercooled systems.)

    However, we get into speed of light related latency issues quite fast when we start talking about Dyson spheres or Matrioshka brains or whatever we're going to call them: if it takes 16 light minutes for a signal to propagate across our 1AU radius structure, that's going to put a brake on system-scale processes. And if we want to build an MB that runs on trapped solar power but cascades it all the way down into microwave wavelengths before dumping it as waste heat, it's going to be tens of AU in diameter: one of the late Robert Bradbury's proposals was that a truly advanced civilization might run MBs of diameter on the order of Pluto's orbital radius, dumping waste heat at 40 kelvins. Such a structure would be entirely missed by the infrared sky survey for Kardashev Type II civilizations that has been carried out to date—it operates at temperatures an order of magnitude lower than those that were checked for (which centred around the triple point for water—anthropocentric reasoning at work, again).

    We could be surrounded by gigantic, slow quantum computing structures with on the order of 10^50 to 10^55 entangled qubits, and we've barely notice them—they'd look like cold clouds of interstellar dust, and they probably wouldn't emit any meaningful information, just raw entropy.

    Is this possible? Is this a thing? I don't know. But it's not as "out there" as FTL drives or time machines, and it's one solution to the Fermi paradox—the fast thinkers stay home (because that's where the latency is lowest) have mind-bogglingly, insanely vast, amounts of computing power with which to think whatever the hell it is that they want to think, and to us they look like cold dust clouds.

    (Oh, and if they want to colonize a new star system? You'd better look out for the relativistic solar sail bearing the civilization-in-a-can factory, powered by the Nicoll-Dyson laser that, oops, just conveniently scanned across and sterilized your star system to plough the field for the nanobots ...

    161:

    Yes, doing worldcon in NZ is the plan.

    $WIFE and I have about a decade's worth of saved air miles, so assuming Brexit hasn't collapsed the UK into utter chaos we should be able to fly business class for free (aside from airport tax) and spend our budget on accommodation and tourism, so staying longer.

    162:

    In other news:

    The edits to INVISIBLE SUN are now a week overdue, but I'm not eating my fingernails: that week turned into an extra 15,000 words of LOST BOYS.

    I'm now fairly confident that GHOST ENGINE will be delayed another 6-12 months, but INVISIBLE SUN will come out more or less on time, and there'll be a new Laundry spin-off, LOST BOYS, next year. So: one book this year, but one or maybe even two the year after.

    163:

    I'm not sure why light speed latency is such a huge problem. After all, the lesson of the last decade is that everything digital (and many other systems) can be hacked. If you get past some latency period, you get to the point where the entire system can be hacked, and if it turns out that the attack can't be thwarted rapidly, it can't be thwarted at all.

    This is, I think, a huge problem for us now on Earth. It's only in the last few decades that a financial crash in China had an immediate impact in London and New York, and we're also in a period where when a pandemic hits an international airport, it hits the rest of the world within a day or two. Ditto with computer viruses, cyberwarfare, and the like. These are problems because we no longer have latency. In the 19th Century, an infowars on, say, Qing China was irrelevant, especially to daily life in Europe or North America, because the bureaucrats processed data so slowly that messing it up cause the water to stop flowing in cities. Now, an attack on the Chinese government could accidentally propagate anywhere on the planet in a few seconds to a few hours.

    Lag times matter. Were I running a Matrioshka Brain or a Dyson Sphere, I'd seldom, if ever, want to use the whole system as one coordinated whole. It's more useful as a vast archipelago. That way, if habitat X wants to try something really risky, they can back themselves up in backuphabitatX10001, do their stupid stunt, and then the authorities can go back and reinstall the backups after using aerogels to capture all the shrapnel that resulted from the stunt. Or whatever.

    164:

    More massive planets ... runs into the rocket equation: getting into orbit becomes much harder.

    But probably also less necessary, especially at the bigger end of the scale and if the inhabitants swim rather than walk. Viz, in three dimensions what was an enormous amount of flat land becomes an unimaginable volume. Mere human sized bundles scale to the level of micro-organisms on Earth. So the other question becomes how long it takes for the gas giant beings to notice the outside, care about it, then decide to go poking around it.

    Anything that lives in gas giants might also find it easier to adapt to living in small stars than icy rocks, so their targets of choice might be red dwarf stars rather than planets.

    Could be that they go straight from "terrestrial" {cough} to something like quantum teleportation and we may not even theoretically be able to detect them.

    165:

    To be fair, they had a trademark on clothing with Uncle Sam's Misguided Children, although that got abandoned in 2015 due to some settlement (presumably Prior Art or some such).

    The thing I was cross about was that even checking "misguided children" on DuckDuckGo gets that version of the USMC as their top hits.

    On the other hand, all the trademarks on "Lost Boys" have been abandoned, so that part's open, and no one's tried to trademark "Naughty Children"

    166:

    You're assuming the scale/scope of intelligence is human-equivalent. I'm assuming whatever ends up living in the MB is to us as we are to a tapeworm, cognitively-speaking.

    167:

    Hacking and similar screwups are scale independent, and some issues are built into the math of Godel's Incompleteness Theorem, in the sense that, if you're sophisticated enough, you can probably always find the thought that will kill you through a fit of terminal depression, if nothing else. Because of that, I'd say it'd take a certain Trumper egotism for some singular intelligence to grow into an entire system and use that solely for thinking its grandiose thoughts. Sooner or later things would go bad, and without a backup or even someone to talk it down, it'd crash and burn.

    So yeah, that's why I'm thinking that light speed lags are important for survival at all scales. It's so that someone can store a copy of themselves halfway across the system before they try doing that really stupid stunt they just thought of. Perhaps the copy gets awoken halfway across the system by the resulting sleet of gamma rays, but at least they wake up again, unlike the original.

    168:

    I'm not sure why light speed latency is such a huge problem.

    Speaking of latency problems, impending Brexit has apparently created one related to the speed of ships:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-07/brexit-is-nine-days-away-for-exporters-sending-ships-to-asia

    British exporters risk their goods sitting in quarantine and not being paid for unless a Brexit deal can be found by the end of next week...

    “For many companies, it’s not 50 days away, hard Brexit happens nine days from now [7 Feb],” Stephen Phipson, chief executive of the EEF manufacturing lobby group, said. “Those are the first ships that are going to land post-March 29 in southeast Asia. If products get loaded on the ships, exporters have no idea when they land whether they’ll be on a 20 percent tariff regime. Will they need rules of origins certificates?"

    169:

    A theory that, to quote former Prime Minister At Time Of Writing Paul Keating, the EU will do you slowly:

    the EU’s response to a no deal will be strategic: opening up advantage, sector by sector, calmly and patiently dismantling the UK’s leading industries over the course of a decade. They will eat the elephant one bite at a time. The problem with abandoning the rules of the international order is that you no longer enjoy their protection.

    A no-deal Brexit would hand the EU enormous power: it would decide how and when to introduce new frictions between the UK and the single market, giving sufficient time for firms like Airbus, Nissan or AstraZeneca to relocate production. As recent decisions have demonstrated, even seemingly fixed capital investment is more mobile than many Brexiters imagine.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/07/no-deal-brexit-medieval-siege-eu-britain-industries

    170:

    (aside from airport tax)

    Which might exclude the most obivious choice. BA via LHR. They (the airline AND the airport) are brutal on taxes and fees.

    171:

    Daniel Duffy @ 143:

    Sorry, you are assuming that we would even RECOGNISE their technology.

    We would recognize their heat signatures.
    Something that can't be hidden - no matter what technology they use.

    Unless THEY figured out a way to hide their heat signatures that we don't know about? In that case, we're right back to "assuming that we would even RECOGNISE their technology."

    If we KNOW something is impossible, would we recognize it if someone else managed to figure out a way to do it? Would we even know what to look for?

    172:

    Unless THEY figured out a way to hide their heat signatures

    You mean, unless they learned how to violate the basic laws of physics.

    And would even go to the troubled of doing so.

    173:

    How about the Sagan Scale (created by Carl Sagan). from Wikipedia article on the Kardeshev scale:

    Alternatively, Carl Sagan suggested adding another dimension in addition to pure energy usage: the information available to the civilization.

    He assigned the letter A to represent 106 unique bits of information (less than any recorded human culture) and each successive letter to represent an order of magnitude increase, so that a level Z civilization would have 1031 bits.

    In this classification, 1973 Earth is a 0.7 H civilization, with access to 1013 bits of information.

    Sagan believed that no civilization has yet reached level Z, conjecturing that so much unique information would exceed that of all the intelligent species in a galactic supercluster and observing that the universe is not old enough to exchange information effectively over larger distances.

    The information and energy axes are not strictly interdependent, so that even a level Z civilization would not need to be Kardashev Type III.

    P.S. So you can imagine a civilization that voluntarily decides to live inside a matrix computer generated civilization where everyone gets to be Neo (or Superman, or any other fantasy life) being a Kardashev 1/Sagan Y civilization.

    Oddly enough, the original Star trek TV series with its 1960s lack of emphasis on AI, use of human navigators, would be a II/J civ.

    Frank Herbert's Dune, where the Butlerian Jihad has destroyed all thinking machines would be a 2.5/C civilization.

    174:

    In terms of absorbing/dismantling UK corporates, I suspect the US will have the job done before the EU have got round to agreeing their cunning plan.

    175:

    arrbee @ 174 Or, more likely the Chinese Think "HSBC" or Jardine, Mattheson or ....

    176:

    Light speed latency for huge computational systems is both less of a problem and more of one than most people realise. It's complicated.

    Firstly, it is still unclear that light speed is a hard limit on information transfer and, in particular, quantum tunnelling, entanglement etc. may not be so limited. As I have posted before, this question badly needs more attention than it gets.

    Secondly, it's almost exactly the same problem as computing on large distributed networks with slow links. Some algorithms can be solved efficiently, some are known to be inefficient, and the vast majority are yet unknown. In most cases, it is possible to rephrase a problem to get at least an adequately accurate answer fairly efficiently, so we suspect this is just a hard problem, not an intractable one.

    The problem appears to be, as much as anything, that humans think serially; even those with a record of 'thinking in parallel' do so only to a very limited extent or in very restricted ways. This means that existing approaches to most calculations don't scale, and it is unclear how we can develop ones that so. In my view, this is probably the main obstacle. However, given the way that a modern mathematics graduate thinks compared to the way that Newton did (let alone Archimedes), it's unclear that this is immutable.

    177:

    That is for sure, especially given what has happened over the past three decades. Even if Labour got in with a thumping majority, Whitehall would ensure that it continues at an accelerated rate, and the Conservatives have effectively made it clear that it's part of their, er, strategy.

    178:

    Daniel: "[Sagan] assigned the letter A to represent 106 unique bits of information (less than any recorded human culture) and each successive letter to represent an order of magnitude increase, so that a level Z civilization would have 1031 bits. In this classification, 1973 Earth is a 0.7 H civilization, with access to 1013 bits of information."

    10^6. 10^31. 10^13.

    --

    All: Fermi Paradox solutions in the various.

    Re: Maybe they are hiding from us.

    All of them? Why? It might be physically possible for some magitech to let them violate thermodynamics, and some might choose to hide themselves. But all of them? Why? And should I, a member of a young species without access to such magitech, be concerned that there's something out there that magitech-level races are so utterly afraid of?

    Re: Dyson-Birch Matryoshka Brains.

    Charlie got closest. A layered system that more efficiently extracts energy until the outer layer's waste heat is 40K black-body. It might explain why the Dyson survey around our neighbourhood didn't find any classic >0degC Dyson stars, but it has other flaws.

    We have surveyed galaxies at 40k microwave. Not only is there no sign of lots of 40K, or 30K, or 10K hidden galaxies around us, there's also no pattern of greater hiding over time. (Of galaxies-like-ours billions of years ago, slowly reducing in visibility as we approach our galactic neighbourhood and current time.) Even if their disappearance was complete, not even a 40K signature, nothing at all, there's no temporal component to suggest an emergence of that technology.

    Re: They are to us, as we are to a tapeworm.

    A common riff (although usually us and ants) but it also fails the exclusivity rule. Only two levels of development exist? Every not-us civilisation is no less than that far ahead of us? There's no slightly-more-advanced tapeworms? No more-advanced-than-tapeworms-but-still-has-fond-memories-of-when-they-were-tapeworms. No yet-further-advanced-but-enjoys-mentoring-tapeworms.

    Implies something is eating all the in-between civilisations, but by some amazing coincidence is not only not touching us, but not leaving any visible traces elsewhere.

    179:

    You've no reason to be aware of this but Charlie has a deep dislike of London Heathrow (probably from when it was a loathsome place indeed). Coupled with the fact that he lives so far from London too, so that Schiphol or Charles de Gaulle are as convenient as LHR, and you'll find that he doesn't use BA either.

    My wife and I are close to London, and what with Terminal 5 effectively being a new airport that just happens to share runways with the older terminals, we do use BA and LHR, particularly since London Stansted has redesigned its layout so you have a long winding maze from security to the actual gates. We now actively avoid STN because of that.

    180:

    Bellinghman Well, I have only arrived at LHR once & it wasn't TOO bad - never flown out, though. Agree that STN is now a hell-hole for departures - it wasn't too bad previously. The only other Brit airport I've used is LCY - alomost pleasant. NOTE: I LOATHE, am deeply revolted by the paraphernalia around flying ( Thank you 11/9 arseholes ) & the totally vacuuous, stupid & 99% unneceesary scurity "theatre" .... Of course, I would be using one of the "London" sites ....

    But, assuming I make it to Germany this year ...I'm going by TRAIN. ( Brexit fuck-up permitting ) Home-to-check-in @ KGXStP in 20 mins, train out to Amsterdam, forward to Rheine ... Back, reversing, except second change in Brussel.

    181:

    Oh, I thoroughly agree, only more so... The mere fact that you have to spend more time piddling around in airports for stupid reasons with your thumb up your arse than you do actually flying, instead of just turning up 5 minutes before takeoff as with a train, is on its own enough to put me off. The elaboration of security procedures on top of that is merely the difference between falling off a 100-foot precipice and falling off a 600-foot one.

    Hence if the alternative is plane or nothing I'll take the nothing, thank you very much. The only flying plane I have ever been in was a single-engined 4-seater, and I am quite happy to keep it that way and only know about the other stuff because everyone who does go on a plane makes their next move to go on the internet and complain about it.

    182:

    Re: Denier book

    Had to clean my laptop of some major malware recently so am currently getting 'interesting' ads showing up. One caught my eye - a book titled 'Dumb Energy'. Read a review (below) and it looks like the fossil orgs are ramping up their online ad campaigns.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climatechange/at-america-first-energy-conference-solar-power-is-dumb-climate-change-is-fake-idUSKBN1KU1Y1

    183:

    I got a bit curious so I did a quick check.

    One example of taxes and fees LHR-DFW-LHR 282.03 CDG-DFW-CDG 124.43

    184:

    Light speed latency for huge computational systems is both less of a problem and more of one than most people realise. It's complicated.

    Oh. Hah! Good thing I was rereading Girl Genius yesterday for brain bleaching relaxation.

    Here's what was unintentionally funny. On the one side, there are you guys looking at a Matrioshka Brain as a computational engineering challenge, where your goal is to make the monster maximally functional. Like the Foglio's Sparks, your eyes are blazing with the unspeakable glory that is the possibility of a computer made of an entire solar system, and grumbling about that stoooopid light speed latency problem that keeps you from using all that power the way you want.

    Then there's me. I'm working on a little pamphlet about preparing for wildfires in San Diego County, and I just finished writing up a couple of paragraphs about how to prepare your computer and online identity in case you get 20 minutes' warning to evacuate your house before it burns down.

    So I'm thinking about the 3-2-1 Backup Rule when the Mad Scientists start talking about Dyson Spheres, and I'm sitting here thinking that 16 minutes of latency sounds wonderful. It'd be harder for a system built around those kinds of latencies to get wiped out by 'Oumuamua's big cousin or a bunch of X-class solar flares.

    Cool! I think, in my paranoid little way. Latency helps make it like totally resilient.

    Horrible! Think the mad scientists. Those latencies get in the way of that brain thinking Really Big Thoughts. We need more power and transluminal communication!

    And then we start arguing about it...

    185:

    I know, I almost never post on a weekend, but I've just completed, I think, a story that sets up an entire universe to play in, all of which grew out of a short I wrote this summer.

    Now for the hard part: it's a novelette, of about 13k words. I have to find a market that will take it (and pay actual rates, not $10 for the story).

    But here's an explanation fo the Elder Gods and the Old Ones: the Old Ones are, in fact, a civilization expanding across the galaxy. At under lightspeed. So they send unmanned drones, to prepare the way. The real war between then was the created-by-the-drones vs. the high civilization... of the intelligent dinosaurs. That ended when the Old Ones got reports of what was going on, and told the drone to drop a comet on the planet....

    186:

    My take on Why Haven't We Seen or Been Contacted... which a non-fan friend just asked.

  • If you were an intelligent race, would you contact this bunch of psychos with nukes and hair triggers?
  • Maybe they're waiting until we get our shit together, and get off planet, seriously (and LEO does not count as serious).
  • Now for the serious stuff: 1. Their tech would have to be within a few hundred years of ours. Would you expect Rome to pick up cellphone signals? As it is, right now, fewer people are using straight radio over the air. 2. Remember, that overwhelmingly, on this planet, most commerce was between known ports. You want to expand over the galaxy - why? After you've run into a few dozen intelligent races, you've seen them all, and another one's just not going to give you ROI for the go-find-them-and-then-figure-out-how-to-talk-to-them-and-what-they-have-that-we-want mission.

    My guess is that most are either far, far ahead of us (come on, a few million, or tens of millions of years? You don't think the intelligent dinosaurs, who'se civilization was destroyed by the comet (see previous post) would be interested in us, if they were still around and Out There?

    Or else far behind. We spent how many years in the Old Stone Age before we even got steel?

    Oh, and my novelette that I just finished does run into "where are we going, and what are we going to do when we get to the Future?"

    187:

    When the second parent dies, it seems to me that grief can become more complex. When my father died two years ago (I was then 56), all of a sudden my siblings and I had no parents at all; suddenly there was no one older than us to look up to.

    That's where I am right now - and why I haven't been ready to read, much less comment upon, a thread about the deaths of relatives.

    On January 31st my uncle passed away and I discovered I was not ready to be the oldest person in my family. Happily I escaped the 'never said important stuff' trap but there were so many little things in progress that the inability to have routine gossip has been bugging me. So does the realization I don't have any older relative to ask about family any more.

    He'd been in the hospital for a few weeks, in the ICU recovering from heart issues, and finally transferred to a regular ward. It was a relief when he got better enough to be fed up with being in a hospital getting poked with things and start demanding to get out. We had a gratuitously drama filled day extracting him from the hospital and getting him back home. He was doing well and resting comfortably for two days and then, in a matter of hours, just faded out.

    Yeah, it still hurts. Yeah, I still expect to see him around the house.

    And I have NO advice on how to grieve.

    Thank you for that, anyway.

    188:

    About grieving... you do NOT NEED anyone's "ok" for you to grieve. And if some asshole starts babbling about "closure" - like a shithead preacher did, some years ago, on Sunday, following a mass school shooting the previous Thursday, flush them.

    I've lost a lot of people in my life, most too fucking young. And grieving? My late wife dropped dead, for no fucking reason (that's what the coronor's report said) at 43, over 21 years ago. No one has any right to say "you should stop now". All they are doing is saying, "I can't deal with you grieving, and I don't want to think about how I'd feel if I lost someone, so please shut up".

    Unfuck 'em.

    189:

    Charlie,

    First, take care of yourself. Like most people here, I'd rather your books came late than not at all.

    Second, when you join us here in Aotearoa, do feel free to remind me that I once promised to buy you a beer if/when you ever visited Wellington.

    Third, while you're here, you might be interested in visiting this. They have the sort of Vampire I would have expected you to prefer.

    J Homes.

    190:

    whitroth @84: "But, as you know Jim, the US has the best healthcare system in the world...." Conventional wisdom (which I shared until I saw the following) has that as the common American opinion, but somebody thought to actually ask Americans what they thought: "Only 27% of Americans Think American Health Care Is Above Average" (https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/page/5/)

    191:

    That does sound interesting. I'll look forward to reading it!

    192:

    whitroth @ 186 1. If you were an intelligent race, would you contact this bunch of psychos with nukes and hair triggers? "State of the Art", by a certain still-missed Mr Banks? And ... round two ... 1. "Cellphone signals" - yeah spot on. Like looking for evidence of development & industry by looking fo signs of current Coal-&-Wood exploitation ...

    J holmes @ 1989 Vampire like this from the photograph?

    193:

    "[you guys] grumbling about that stoooopid light speed latency problem" "[there's me] in case you get 20 minutes' warning to evacuate your house before it burns down."

    You aren't allowing for the fact that these are not analogous situations. The light speed lag doesn't give you "warning", it doesn't give you time to you prepare. Because the first moment any sign of an attack on that-section-over-there arrives is also the first moment the attack itself arrives in your section.

    (And assuming that people (AI or natural) only become aware of the attack after it has occurred, their warning will actually be behind the spread of the attack.)

    194:

    Greg Tingey,

    Yes, that sort of Vampire.

    195:

    The light speed lag doesn't give you "warning", it doesn't give you time to you prepare.

    Only if infection and transmission are instantaneous. More likely it will take time to infect a host, take it over and prepare to on-send the infection. Given discrete infectable nodes and even a small lag, at least some nodes will see other nodes "go dark" and have time to react.

    Think of it not so much as the the incubation stage of an infectious disease but the prodromal stage - behaviour is changing even though the patient isn't really ill yet. For a computer system, it's not transmitting or responding normally but it isn't yet taken over by the new agency. Sure, in the worst case that might only take nanoseconds, but I'm betting the initial infection will be more like the Nano Flower by Peter F Hamilton - a giant wodge of data arrives, the receiver has to discover how to decode it and run it, then once it's running it can escape the test environment, infect the host and construct a much more effective infectious agent, then start transmitting that.

    But meanwhile the rest of the nodes are going "I wonder how Sam is getting on with that weird extrasolar data" and probably "hmm, Sam isn't responding, and things look weird over there".

    196:

    whitroth: "My take on Why Haven't We Seen or Been Contacted... 1. If you were an intelligent race, would you contact this bunch of psychos with nukes and hair triggers?"

    You think we're all garbage, and yet here you are communicating with some of us. Why wouldn't the same be true of alien civilisations?

    whitroth: "Maybe they're waiting until we get our shit together, and get off planet" "why? After you've run into a few dozen intelligent races, you've seen them all, and another one's just not going to give you ROI for the go-find-them-and-then-figure-out-how-to-talk-to-them-and-what-they-have-that-we-want mission."

    All of them? There are no extroverts out there? No variation amongst cultures?

    (Aside: You don't have to travel to talk. Radio works for neighbours. Relays work for distance. Talking about physically spreading is just to show that we should see signs, visible to us, even in other galaxies, if intelligence is widespread.)

    whitroth: "1. Their tech would have to be within a few hundred years of ours." "My guess is that most are either far, far ahead of us"

    If we're just coming into radio-civilisation now, within the last century, and there is a distribution of stellar ages of sun-like stars, ie, many older, many younger, then there isn't just one group of ancient alien civilisations, "them", and one baby, us. Instead there would be a continuous age distribution from the oldest to the youngest. Some will be billions of years older, some millions, some thousands, some just a century or so.

    If the older civilisations won't talk to the younger, what's stopping them from talking to each other? And once it starts, then all of them, except the very first chatty species, were contacted by an older civilisation. It'll seem normal, natural, so many of them will contact yet younger species. And those species will contact other, even younger ones. It doesn't matter if not every species is so extroverted, it doesn't matter if it's a trend of youth and older races eventually get sick of contacting new races: given normal distribution curves, there'll be a culture of communication between civilisations and a culture of contacting younger civilisations.

    If there isn't a culture of galactic communication, then either life is rare-to-non-existent (not just in our galaxy, but in general), or Something is making everyone else be Very Quiet.

    (And that Something can't just be a policy of non-interference. As above, you can't prevent other people from communicating by not interfering with them.)

    197:

    Moz: "Only if infection and transmission are instantaneous. More likely it will take time to infect a host, take it over and prepare to on-send the infection. Given discrete infectable nodes and even a small lag, at least some nodes will see other nodes "go dark" and have time to react."

    But that lag is unrelated to the speed-of-light lag. Your scenario applies on an instantaneous network or a light-speed-lagged one. You have to see the other nodes "go dark" before you can act in self-defence, seeing them "go dark" occur several seconds or several years after the actual infection doesn't buy you additional seconds or years, the only lag is only the time between the light from "go dark" and the arrival of the attack vector. The speed-of-light lag adds no buffer.

    198:

    Me: "seeing them "go dark" occur" "light from 'go dark'"

    Yes indeedy.

    199: 141(1)- Shale oil has been an on again/off again thing, depending on prices for crude from other sources, since Victorian times. Charlie and Nojay live (or lived anyway) near the West Lothian shale bings that were one of the original sources. 162 - Well that's good news, but I'd rather a healthy Charlie than "fast books" IYSWIM> 170 - Larndarn Thiefrow - Never have I experienced a more wretched hive of misery and villainy! ;-)
    200:

    No, I wasn't. I was describing the problems in making the computational power scale with size, even sub-linearly; there's little point in such an N-node device that can handle N independent sub-problems efficiently, but neither link them together nor handle a single large problem in less than O(N) time.

    And Paul451 is right. You get that extra latency to prepare only if you have instantaneous communication and it doesn't, and that assumes that the initial attack is visible from outside (which is not true for the most competent attacks). Consider two stations A and B, t light-seconds apart. A gets attacked at time T0 and is taken over at time T1; B notices the attack at time T0+t and is attacked at time T1+t; it makes no difference if t is zero or huge.

    201:

    When my mother went, she was the last of that generation on her side - all my uncles and aunts had predeceased her. Suddenly we — I, my siblings and my maternal cousins — became the senior generation. It's a weird feeling all right.

    (The saying "Who died and made you $foo" is just as bad from the other side)

    202:

    Nah, neither of you are close to right.

    Remember, we live in a world bathed in computer viruses now. Viruses don't propagate at the speed of light, or anti-virus protections wouldn't work, period, and the next virus to come along will wreck civilization.

    Similarly, the other threats I posted that you didn't readabout --extrasolar asteroids and large solar flares--don't propagate at the speed of light either, and having large gaps and plenty of time to prepare by spotting them early is the simplest defense against both.

    As I said, you're thinking like sparks. If you don't know what I'm talking about, go read the the strip. If that's too much work, remember that we're talking about two entirely different views of the same impossible situation.

    [[ link fixed - mod ]]

    203:

    Err,at least in the German translation of "Fiasco", in the end we find out we were seeing the aliens all along, it's just they didn't adhere to our expectations. they are not microbes, though. But there is some resemblance to HPL's Elder Things...

    As for the novel itself, "Fiasco" is said to be one of Lem's lesser works. Personally, I liked it, though that might be a) my bad taste or b) Lem doing mil-sf. There is also a song by Deine Lakaien, a German DarkWave band about it, Contact, I guess I linked to it before.

    As for the Old Ones being around, while browsing youtube I stumbled on a video about the aestivation hypothesis, where the papoer even quotes HPL. Basically, as Charlie mentioned, quantum computation gets much more efficient close to 0K, so maybe the real "giants walking between the stars" (to quote Babylon 5[1]) are waiting for cooler times, when "the stars are right", e.g. event the red dwarf stars go out.

    Maybe the microbes are waiting for that, sleeping and dreaming. But there is a way to test the aestivation hypothesis, don't waste resources the Eternal Lieing need, or they get upset. Pandemics for the mere annoyances, microbe-caused ecosystem collapse for the real hard cases. Hm, maybe even upset Gaia's Milankovitch cycles with greenhouse gases and dimethyl sulphide that much that a quasi-intelligent species evolves to take the whole biosphere down.

    In other news, I have taken to quote the Bhagavad Gita ("I'm time, destroyer of world") to apply to a certain software I have to use at work. I have a bad feeling of my inner Aldous Huxley showing up again, if I progress to do psychedelics with a physician's daughter doing poetry I'll let you know. No, we don't want to go into the "Kopfkino" (literally "cinema of the head", see "inner cinema") I'm having at the moment.

    And I though I might have finally grown up and might even get somewhat old...

    [1] Sorry for the TV reference, and actually it was a typical slow start for me, a) what is this shit, b) hey, it's quite cool, c) I just ordered all episodes on ebay in the collector's edition, is there more coming out? Somewhat similar to Futurame, actually.

    204:

    I don't know what you are smoking, but it's clearly something strong.

    Your comment on computer viruses is so wrong that it's hard to explain why. We are NOT bathed in them - nothing like the way our bodies are bathed in viruses - and, if computers are connected by speed of light links, they will propagate exactly as fast as the warning of their existence travels. I explained that in #200.

    I was responding to your remarks about Matrioshka brains etc., not talking about threats in general. You are correct that latency is our friend against threats to a distributed system, but NOT that distance (hence light speed) helps AT ALL with computer viruses etc. The ONLY latency that matters is that between external visibility and activation which, as I said, is nil for the more competent viruses.

    Your link is broken, incidentally. When I fix that, I get a warning that it's using corrupt SSL - what were you saying about computer viruses? :-)

    205:

    EC / heteromeles etc All this latency / lightspeed / propagation / threat problem was dealt with ( I thought ) In "A Fire upon the Deep" by V Vinge?

    Yes/No?

    206:

    No. I'll give him the credit for addressing it, but he (very reasonably, for fiction) took liberties with known facts and didn't attempt to address more aspects than were relevant to his story. I could go into a lot more detail, but it would simply bore those people it didn't baffle. It's rather less relevant to what we believe of as reality than the Laundry series, which is not to say that it doesn't make some very good points.

    207:

    I can assure you that it is equally weird to realise that you don't have obligate dependents any more, when you have effectively had them since childhood.

    208:

    I will simply note that light can go eight times around the planet in one second, so if viruses propagated at light speed, every computer would be infected in a second. This manifestly doesn't happen.

    What you're confusing is the speed of bits in wires and the propagation of viruses, which are just trains of bits, they require all sorts of other things to happen before they install themselves, and still more things to happen before the infected systems begin sending out further copies of the viruses. That propagation particular speed is far, far less than C. This is why researchers can find new viruses, take the time to understand them, work out countermeasures, and propagate those countermeasures. Because the speed of virus propagation is less than the speed of light, latency is extremely useful, because the warnings of threats can arrive far earlier than the threats do themselves.

    As for how many viruses are out there, you can test that yourself by taking a burner machine, stripping all the antivirus software out of it, and surf the web. See how long it takes you to pick up something. You only see the ones that get past your protections.

    209:

    The problem here is that some idiot, in the interests of "efficiency" will demand that all the processors of the Matrioshka brain run on the same OS, (probably -shudder- Windoze) and they will upgrade all of them at the same time* -more shudder- also in the interests of effi-shit-cy... and the whole ecosystem will be very vulnerable.

    On the other hand, let each processor of the Matrioshka brain run a different type of Unix, plus some -shudder- Windows and Mac brains, plus some Plan-9 brains, some Amiga brains, etc., and the whole system will be considerably more robust!

    Obviously, alien software attack vectors may be complex enough to successfully attack a varied ecosystem, but there's still no reason to make it easy!

    • I got six months of overtime once when someone decided to upgrade all 1500 nodes of a gigantic wireless network at the same time. They left one line out of the configuration file...
    210:

    While I would not call myself a real expert in most of this area, quite a lot of people did, and I haven't gone completely gaga in the past few years.

    Wires are irrelevant - large-scale connectivity is mostly optical nowadays, getting more so as time goes on, and electron-based information travels at damn-near the speed of light (the delay is almost all in the switching, for both forms). Once one is talking about extra-terrestrial communications, it's ALL optical, and in a near-vacuum, too.

    You are making the erroneous assumption that the information indicating a node is compromised travels faster than an attack can. How? Telepathy? EXACTLY the same transfer media is used for both, and it can use EXACTLY the same routing. There is absolutely no need for viruses to infect intermediate systems, in general, though they may need to when travelling through different security domains.

    The correct calculation for this is in #200. I could explain how you can use multiple security domains to provide some protection against this, and why it guarantees less delay than you might think, but it's very geekish and the Internet doesn't work like that, anyway.

    211:

    Y'know, all this us being invaded by aliens that we don't recognize... being now elderly officially, as of last week, let me recall A For Andromeda, Elliot & Hoyle.

    212:

    You really didn't read, and see what I was saying. For one, that bit about "would you want to contact us" was SEMI-HUMOROUS, and I refuse to put < g > on things like that, I expect people who hang out here to get it.

    For another, YOU interpret me saying "we're all garbage", as opposed to "the management are a bunch of hair-triggered psychos, who know only one response to a threat, or perceived threat".

    I also do not assume that there's some Galactic Empire (tm), ruled by Wise Minds. I assume that there's many, many intelligent races, with civilization levels ranging from old, old stone age to what, if we survive, might be doing in 10,000 years.* I also don't assume that all of them are expansionist, or even the ones that are are expansionist 100% of the time.

    Or that they don't reach a level, and plateau, or enjoy what they've got (quick: do most folks you know go out to climb Mt. Everest, or do they take a cruise, or go to a resort?). Or they might go on to other interests, like, perhaps, talking to the races that got further than they did before they did.

    And I certainly don't assume that there are intelligent civilizations, that we'd recognize as such, under ever rock circling a sun. There are plenty of solar systems with, well, rocks.

    So, what I was SAYING was that civilizations are scattered around the galaxy, just some that are in the sweet spot to come knocking (assuming that Oumuamua wasn't just that).

    • Gee, I cover a lot of this in the novelette I just finished last night, and now have started looking for a market that will take 13k words, much less of straight sf, not military sf or fantasy. (Yes, of course this is a plug....)
    213:

    Try again. Answer this question: how fast does a computer virus propagate, from infecting machine A to using machine A to send copies of itself to infect machine B. It's not light speed, it's far slower.

    That's why the message that machine A is infected can get to B before the infection itself does. Do you understand yet? Or are you still thinking that viruses take over machines at light speed and propagate as fast as they infect?

    214:

    Daniel Duffy @ 172:

    Unless THEY figured out a way to hide their heat signatures

    You mean, unless they learned how to violate the basic laws of physics.
    And would even go to the troubled of doing so.

    No, I mean we don't know ALL of the laws of physics.

    215:

    David L @ 183: I got a bit curious so I did a quick check.

    One example of taxes and fees
    LHR-DFW-LHR 282.03
    CDG-DFW-CDG 124.43

    So, how does that actually work?

    I've flown a bit as an adult, but looking back, I don't think I've ever made but one trip by air that didn't include a C-130 for some part of the journey (i.e. the Army paid for everything and I showed up at the time & place shown on my orders).

    And the one trip that wasn't directed by the Army, someone else made all of the arrangements & I just paid one lump sum for everything (airfare, ground transportation, hotels, meals ...)

    216:

    Firstly, the time taken from when an infection starts on a particular machine to when it sends out its first infection packet is not a speed - in particular, it is independent of distance. Even if the signal saying that machine A is compromised goes out as soon as the attack starts, an attacked machine B gets no more warning whether A and B are in the same room or on earth and Ultima Thule. Both the signal and attack are transmitted at light speed.

    Secondly, you are assuming that a virus has to go laboriously from one node to another, but the signal is not so limited. That is not the case. A competently written virus attacks remote nodes in preference to close ones (oversimplifying) in order to spread at the maximum rate; it's a simple statistical issue.

    Thirdly, you are assuming that such a signal is sent out when the attack starts, which is generally not true. Indeed, the external detectability of a machine being compromised can be a long time after it starts to attack others, and that is precisely what competent virus writers try to achieve. In such a case, a virus can infect an entire population before anyone realises.

    The reason that most current viruses appear to spread slowly is almost entirely due to the cluelessness of the virus writers and is most definitely NOT a fundamental limitation. As every security expert knows, you need to defend against the most intelligent plausible attack, not the least intelligent.

    217:

    Re: ' ... how fast does a computer virus propagate,'

    Depends on whether your universe (therefore computer virus) allows for quantum entanglement. We'll probably see quantum computer malware (QCM) show up just as soon as quantum computing becomes standard for major orgs. Apart from even more scamming, wonder what nasties will become possible thanks to QCM.

    218:

    This conversation about computer viruses and the speed of light is frankly kind of bizarre.

    I mean, seriously, if someone is building a Matrioshka Brain, I rather think they probably know a thing or two about computers already. Like, for example, how to formally prove that their OS core and comms protocols are secure. Not to mention defense in depth, how to make backups, how to scan for corruption, and so forth.

    But hey, you know, besides that, I thought I'd just throw this out there: there is a way that speed of light helps.

    In particular, take a look at actual, real world computer hacking. In particular: does some hacker just press F6 to send Unstoppable VirusHack II, and any computer that receives it gets owned? You know, like in the movies?

    The answer is manifestly hell no. The way real hackers work is by collecting a big pile of scripts which scan the target to determine what it's running. Then, they dig out an attack from a huge pile of scripts they hoard and run a few, hoping one will exploit a known bug in the target system. This step is pretty boring, so it's even possible to automate it... with another script. Most people can't do anything beyond this, so they're called the rather derogatory "script kiddies."

    People who are actually competent at hacking can go beyond this: they can actually develop new attacks, both by analyzing the target system directly, and by analyzing copies of the software the remote system is running looking for new bugs.

    Occasionally you do see a major automated worm make the rounds, which self-propagates by exploiting some hilarious bug (and, typically, dumb people running programs they got in email). But those are rather rare and the last few notably seemed to be based on security flaws that exist because spy agencies would prefer we not be secure.

    Now I could say a lot about this -- like for example, that I keep mentioning bugs, because strictly computer-based hacking doesn't work without bugs -- but moving on...

    To actually do any of these things, you'll notice that these operations all involved a lot of back-and-forth. You run a script, it has to chat with the target, report back what it finds, then you run another script. If you get in, well, then you need to send a bunch of commands to figure out what you got, etc.

    It's even worse if you need to figure things out from scratch. In that case, you're asking a bunch of questions, thinking about the answers, reading tons of machine code, and so on. If it's a cryptographic problem, even worse: running some sort of statistical attack might require you to look at their answer to your questions for days on end.

    So, yeah, if you have a 20 minute latency, all this stuff takes a long time. Weeks, years maybe. During that time, the target is more likely to figure out they're under attack. They're likely to send logs to their neighbors letting them know about the attack (even if they don't recognize it themselves) and so on.

    Of course, obviously, we can just imagine (like Vinge did in AFUtD) that the attack actually comes in sentient data packets that the target unwraps, runs in a little sandbox, and gets taken over from inside by a new friend who mysteriously makes them an offer they can't refuse. But then, you'd think a weakly godlike entity would be good at sandboxes and such already, so the whole thing seems a little silly. But ultimately, it's fiction, right? It's not like we can actually imagine what a Matrioshka Brain would be like.

    The only thing we can be really certain of is that we're not going to be able to crash it by hooking up a Mac Powerbook and sending it an Escher painting.

    219:

    johne @ 190:

    whitroth @84: "But, as you know Jim, the US has the best healthcare system in the world...."

    Conventional wisdom (which I shared until I saw the following) has that as the common American opinion, but somebody thought to actually ask Americans what they thought:
    "Only 27% of Americans Think American Health Care Is Above Average"
    (https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/page/5/)

    It's confused by the conflation of two separate issues. Actual Health Care in the U.S. is world class, as good as that in any other top tier economy ... if you can afford it.

    Where it falls down is in affordability and how to ensure distribution so as to provide adequate care for all.

    The U.S. system is based on the so called "free market", where a for PROFIT hospital or for PROFIT doctor's office provides care paid for by a for PROFIT insurance company. All health care "reform" in the U.S. is nothing more than an effort to cut "costs" to increase PROFITS.

    The only way they can do that is to charge more and provide less benefit.

    220:

    Re: 'This conversation about computer viruses ...'

    What's your take on computer 'antibodies', i.e., computers/AIs that learn how to sense self vs/ not-self and take action against not-self?

    221:
    What's your take on computer 'antibodies', i.e., computers/AIs that learn how to sense self vs/ not-self and take action against not-self?

    In some sort of far-future science fiction world with sentient computers, weakly godlike space gods and all that?

    Oh hell yeah, I'm all for that. Like, we finally venture out into interstellar space and our intrepid explorers find themselves caught up in some horrifying star-system encompassing total war which nearly consumes human civilization until... all of a sudden... it turns out the whole thing was two Space Gods making love and their immune systems hadn't got to know each other yet.

    In the real world?

    That's just not how our computers work. Biologicals like us, each individual has a custom body with unique chemical patterns. The body creates and runs itself, self-organizing via a mostly autonomous system. The immune system codes for these patterns in various ways and, even so, often messes up and attacks itself.

    Our computers, on the other hand, are all made in giant factories, each unit the same. Even between model lines, the chips produce the same abstract execution environment so the software is compatible. And then the software is all the same, because it has to be created through vast effort by tens of thousands of people.

    When you get into human-like AI, well, things might change. But then, the AI is presumably going to essentially be an application running on our existing computer frameworks, which are still made the same. Who knows?

    222:

    Bellinghman @ 201: When my mother went, she was the last of that generation on her side - all my uncles and aunts had predeceased her. Suddenly we — I, my siblings and my maternal cousins — became the senior generation. It's a weird feeling all right.

    Doubly strange because my mother was the link to all of her family's younger generation as well her own. She was from Western Kentucky and they all migrated out to California during my lifetime. All of my contact with my mom's family went through my mom and her sister. The sister was my mom's last living sibling and she passed away a year before my mom. Now, I have no way to get in touch with any of them.

    I have no cousins from my dad's side of the family and all of his cousins & their children are dead as well. The closest living relative I have from his side of the family (other than my own siblings) is one of my father's second cousin's grandchildren [if he hasn't died yet].

    And, since I'm mostly estranged from my own siblings, it's not only weird, it's kind of lonely at times.

    223:

    "I mean, seriously, if someone is building a Matrioshka Brain, I rather think they probably know a thing or two about computers already. Like, for example, how to formally prove that their OS core and comms protocols are secure. Not to mention defense in depth, how to make backups, how to scan for corruption, and so forth."

    "...Yeah, but, like, fuck all that, pain in the arse, I mean who's gonna bother, anyway? Let's just chuck a zillion BBC Micros into space and hook 'em all up with matey's econet clustering kludge, be up and running in no time and if anyone does take the piss we can just deal with it as it comes, cut their tentacles off or something."

    224:
    "...Yeah, but, like, fuck all that, pain in the arse, I mean who's gonna bother, anyway? Let's just chuck a zillion BBC Micros into space and hook 'em all up with matey's econet clustering kludge [...]"

    And so it was that in the Earth year 2947, Qualznorp Cooperative Empire discovered the first Matrioshka Brain with less computing power than a simple ocular implant. Henceforth known as the Matrioshka Farce, The "B" Ark Brain, and the Monkey Sphere, the structure was preeminent in galactic comedy for almost five thousand years.

    225:

    Heteromeles @ 208: I will simply note that light can go eight times around the planet in one second, so if viruses propagated at light speed, every computer would be infected in a second. This manifestly doesn't happen.

    It can go around 8 times if you have something to bend it around in a circle. Left to its own devices, light just goes haring off in whatever direction it was pointed when it started off.

    The speed of light is dependent on the medium it's passing through. The speed of light differs for different media. That's why glass lenses can focus light. And why when you look at a straw standing in a glass of water it appears to be bent at the water's surface. Whenever the phrase "speed of light" is mentioned without qualifiers, it means the speed of light in a vacuum.

    Plus, computer viruses don't move at the "speed of light", they move at the speed of electricity.

    226:

    Re: 'It can go around 8 times if you have something to bend it around in a circle.'

    Enter fiber optics! Recall hearing discussions about 10 years ago about rewiring the planet with fiber optics ... hmmm ... one of the likeliest orgs were hua...wei ... or something...

    227:

    You'd think that anyone who'd open up a huge container of alien code, even in a sandbox, would deserve what they got. Heck, it might even be Snow Crash.

    Anyway, wonder how the frothing hose will turn on you now? Apparently, people have really strong opinions about how wonderfully godlike something like a Matrioshka Brain is, never mind that it's more likely to be running the personality of one of the Frightful Five Founders, rather than our own. Oh well.

    228:

    Moz: For a computer system, it's not transmitting or responding normally but it isn't yet taken over by the new agency.But that lag is unrelated to the speed-of-light lag.

    Well yes, that is exactly my point. It doesn't matter what the communications lag is provided it's the same for both the "I'm infected" signal and the "infection" signal. What matters is that there is a period during which the infected system is detectably unwell but isn't yet sending out new infections.

    I just find the idea that a system can be immediately compromised by a completely foreign agent quite hard to accept. It's like the movie where someone crashed a giant alien spaceship by connecting a MacBook to it and uploading a virus. Or where I destroy this thread by posting meaningless noise, and I'm apparently doing at least the latter.

    Arguably once the infection has analysed its first victim it will be able to craft a set of targetted infections that will be able to subvert every other target both more rapidly and without letting them give out useful information before they are subverted. But I suggest that the very first infection will not be able to do that. It's much more likely to be a Nano Flower type packet, where it requires serious study by the victim to run the infection.

    229:

    computer viruses don't move at the "speed of light", they move at the speed of electricity.

    Eggzackery! The wave propagation speed is much lower for electrical systems than for optical, which is why there's so much work being done to make optical computers (well, that plus the hope that they can increase bus density since light beams cross over much more readily that electrical currents). Note that "optical" in this sense refers to EMR in general rather than just the visible bits - in theory an "optical computer" could use cosmic radiation if the builder wanted to really pack it down into a tiny space. Well, pending development of suitable materials*.

    It seems likely that even a solar system sized computer will have faster long-range communications than short-range ones, even if the short-range is also optical, just because long distance is likely to be straight lines and even the most far out optical systems have both switching delays and non-straight paths.

    It would be funky magictech to have a quantum computer doing this stuff, especially if it used zero-delay comms across solar distances via entanglement. But I'm not sure we even have a theory of how that might be possible yet, so it's not really hard SF any more.

    • optical computing is about 10 years behind fusion power... it's been 40-50 years away for at least 50 years.
    230:
    You'd think that anyone who'd open up a huge container of alien code, even in a sandbox, would deserve what they got. Heck, it might even be Snow Crash.

    There's apparently a community of rather crazed techies out there with a glorious Bayesian leader who, once upon a time, made a name for himself by running simulated "alien evil in a can" experiments.

    In particular, one person pretends to be the superintelligent alien evil, the other person is the hapless researcher / sysadmin / etc. who's talking to the demon packet, and they have a chat. If the human lets the demon out of the box, then they lose. But of course, the demon AI can promise them anything.

    There were various secretive accounts of this, and how when playing the AI said glorious leader always won.

    At some point, one of the disciples challenged me to the same contest in a chat room, apparently thinking he could prove that my skepticism for this whole demon packet stuff in SF was misplaced.

    He became increasingly annoyed with me as I proceeded to employ exceedingly obvious computer techniques to dissect his intentions and code. Like, he makes me a promise in response to situation X? All right. I'll just freeze that version of the box, rewind it to a few minutes ago, and see what promises he makes to situation Y. Trying psychological tricks on me? I can take a month and talk things over with a committee, and then respond in subjective time one millisecond later. If he tells me something in one timeline, I can crosscheck it against another subjective timeline for lies. Etc.

    Needless to say, the whole exercise was pretty funny, and he did not get out of the box.

    231:

    Thank you for the education!

    I suspect some worthy SF writer can turn that into quite a rollicking story, from either part of the sandbox.

    232:

    Moz, you are provably and demonstrably wrong on that.

    Fusion poweris only 30 years away.

    And has been since at least the 80's.... < g >

    233:

    Fusion poweris only 30 years away. And has been since at least the 80's….

    Not actually true! In the 80s they thought fusion power was 30 years away. What they didn't know was how crazy-hard plasma stability was to maintain. Nor did they know that 30 years later we'd have the CFD supercomputing chops to solve it in real time for ITER, or build utterly batshit architectures like the Wendelstein 7-X stellarator (seriously, go to that wiki page and look at the insane diagram of the magnetic field topology).

    Now we're … well, we need three phases to get there:

    ITER — to achieve sustained fusion breakthrough and positive energy output

    Something else to research long-term effects of neutron irradiation of components and how to extract power and how to breed more tritium using another test reactor

    A prototype power reactor that puts it all together an actually delivers grid base load.

    ITER and the long-term material experiment could in principle run concurrently, given enough money. And given Manhattan-project levels of urgency and spend, we could burn through those two stages in under 15 years and get to break ground on a prototype power reactor within two decades.

    What's lacking is the sense of urgency, though. Why spend $100Bn on a prototype of a new type of reactor that'll take 20-25 years to come on-stream when we can get EPRs working for single-digit billions within a decade?

    The more I look at it, the more current fusion reactor research looks like the space shuttle: hugely ambitious, vastly expensive, monstrously over-sold, and probably a long-term dead end on the way to an eventual goal (shuttle -> reusable space launch capability) best achieved through other means (e.g. SpaceX Falcon 9 Block 5, which got there incrementally).

    234:

    Re: 'Trying psychological tricks on me?'

    Based on my SF reading experience*, SF does a worse job of understanding and using psych than it does physics. Not sure whether this is due to ignorance (not having ever taken even a Psych 101) or deliberate (lack of imagination or psych doesn't matter). Ditto alien biology. That there is a strong connection between bio and psych is pretty well established, so once you start messing around with your alien race's bio, you need to consider what likely (beneficial-to-species) psych results would be. For example: what if your alien evolved from a primitive proto-organism into a complex multi-cellular advanced species and never over the course of its evolution had a 'stomach' but got its nutrients straight out of its ambient atmosphere, i.e., its 'skin' was its primary digestive system. What would that mean to how that species eventually evolved, split into other species, assembled into societies, etc.? What would this mean in terms of competition for or cooperation in order to obtain vital resources? What would motivate or what random accident could cause such entities to do anything if they could draw nourishment directly from their environment? What would such aliens think of creatures that relied on creating a mess, wasting nutrients or committing 'murder' in order to survive? Would they think that needing to build stuff outside one's body in order to survive was a sign of species incompetence: Why not just change your body? Do you mean that you have no control over your own body/yourself? How primitive!

    • Mostly 'SF/F grand masters', Hugo & Nebula winning authors. But even among this select group, few really looked at this credibly (Herbert, Banks, Pratchett). Of the occasional random SF authors I've picked up, most really suck at alien psych -- it's ray guns all the way! Yippee-ayay, ramjet cowboy! Also, as evidenced by Banks & Pratchett, the author doesn't need PhDs in these fields to see and skillfully play with these ideas, he/she just needs to take some time to think through implications.
    235:

    IIRC, it's also not true, since the "30 years away" claim was made steadily since the 1950s.

    As I understand it, the general problem with fusion is that you need to go from liquid helium temperatures (for the magnets) to stellar interior temperatures (in the fusing plasma). You need to not only construct this titanic temperature gradient in a distance of a meter or two, but you also want to use so little energy maintaining the temperature gradient that you get more energy out of the system than you put in. That is one hell of an engineering challenge, and it's certainly not one nature has to worry about in stars.

    236:

    A prototype power reactor that puts it all together an actually delivers grid base load.

    You put it most succinctly.

    We need to get beyond a physics experiment/demonstration that can sustain a fusion reaction, likely deuterium-tritium, reliably delivering at least hundreds of MW thermal for months and years to an industrial one that can extract those thermal megawatts and turn them into grid power. Even that physics experiment is far beyond anything that's now in the works.

    IMO, only the youngest of us have any chance of seeing that and even that might need some serious breakthroughs in life-extension techniques. And I have a hard time imagining tokamaks doing it at all.

    237:

    We need to get beyond a physics experiment...

    You forgot "at an affordable price". Given the timescales we may not be talking capitalist finance stuff but rather environmental/ ecological cost. At this stage it's looking more like physics experiments are the end point for terrestrial fusion given the ongoing significant drop in the cost of extraterrestrial fusion power.

    Which is, as Scalzi noted the other day, just one of the joys of using slightly obscure language to describe everyday things. Oh yes by goch indeed, I have an extraterrestrial fusions power source in my backyard. I use it to recharge the power pack that makes my whirling blades of death self-defence apparatus operate. Or, I have a solar panel for my battery lawnmower.

    238:

    As a blast from the past, see the paper from 1973 titled "A Review of the Chemical, Physical and Thermal Properties of Lithium that are Related to its Use in Fusion Reactors".

    https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/4546804

    239:

    I like the term “gravitational confinement fusion.”

    240:

    I like it. And it's in tribute to the inertial teams I assume?

    241:

    One example of taxes and fees LHR-DFW-LHR $282.03 CDG-DFW-CDG $124.43 So, how does that actually work?

    I added the "$" that I left out in my original post.

    No mater which airline you pick or the amount of fare that the airline collects for their own bank account you will pay these amounts that go to the governments and airport authorities for the right to put you butt into a seat on a plane. Which is why the discount airlines do not like to fly to the major hubs.

    242:

    She was from Western Kentucky

    Getting a bit local here but may I ask what town(s)? I'm from near Paducah.

    243:

    The more I look at it, the more current fusion reactor research looks like the space shuttle: hugely ambitious, vastly expensive, monstrously over-sold, and probably a long-term dead end on the way to an eventual goal (shuttle -> reusable space launch capability) best achieved through other means (e.g. SpaceX Falcon 9 Block 5, which got there incrementally).

    Where are the rest of us? I've felt this way since the early 80s. And still run into smart people who seem to check their brain at the door and think the shuttle was a wonderful thing that NASA fouled up due to Congressional meddling. That it was a bad idea that should have never gotten past the first shuttle to get into space is a rejected idea.

    Sigh.

    244:

    Heteromeles @ 227 Frightful Five Founders ... Sorry USAism I don't understand there - please elucidate?

    Charlie @ 233 That plasma-band inside looks very like ( But not quite actually ) a Möbius strip ... Careful, it might not be a power-up, but a GATE. ( Suitable for a story, maybe? ) [ IIRC 2 Möbius-conjoined = 1 Klein bottle ]

    245:

    Actually, in the 1950s, it was 20 years away :-) As people have been saying for half a century, it is 20/30 years away, always was, and always will be ....

    246:

    Given that secure operating systems were shown to be viable for general-purpose computing 30 years ago, have essentially disappeared from sight, and the USA's military systems use Windows CE (I believe), I side with you :-( Except that reimplemented BBC Micros would be better for the purpose than what would be used!

    247:

    'Computer antibodies' have exactly the same failure modes as the human immune system - failing to detect new, subtle infections, toxic decomposition products and autoimmunity. They have their uses, but are not a miracle cure.

    248:

    The shuttle specs were frozen at the end of the 1960s/very early 1970s by engineering managers who'd come up through the ranks and been in aerospace engineering probably since the 1940s. They were used to a design-build-fly cadence of maybe a decade per generation.

    The shuttle they thought they were getting was an engineering test-bed that'd fly by 1975 and be scrap by 1985, replaced by a far superior second generation, with a third generation entering service by 1995-2000 which would get it right and deliver on the "space truck" and "100% reusable" promises.

    The shuttle we got was a child of the post-1968 slowdown in aerospace, when it stopped riding a rising sigmoid curve and went steady-state. So it flew a decade late, was buggy as hell, barely reusable, and nobody had a replacement when it was time to retire it after 30 years.

    SpaceX have at least got the benefit of learning how to land a rocket on its tail (go watch that video—it's priceless!) on expendables, subsidized by commercial payloads. Having gotten a handle on it, now they're preparing something on the order of ambition of a shuttle, namely BFR, due to fly by 2020 (I'm betting it'll be a year or two late), and which—if it works—will deliver what the shuttle managers promised Congress (100+ ton payload to orbit, fully reusable, crew rated, flight cycle like an aeroplane rather than a rocket—okay, maybe like an SR-71 or a B-2 or some other military hangar queen, but not the shuttle, which basically needed tearing down and rebuilding between flights).

    But back when NASA spec'd out the shuttle the only customer who were around to subsidize the R&D costs were the USAF, who had a ridiculous set of requirements (bring KH series spysats back from orbit, so re-enter without at any point being sub-orbital over communist territory, so re-enter hot and heavy, so ridiculous aerogel heat shield and wings for cross-range capability, etcetera).

    249:

    NB: just got side-tracked reading the wiki article on BFR (Super Heavy/Starship).

    Holy cow, that thing is ambitious. Bigger than Saturn V, fully reusable, aiming for airliner levels of operational safety, aiming for passenger/tourist jaunts around the moon within the next 3 years?

    NASA is still pressing ahead with the hugely expensive, lower payload, totally non-reusable SLS. Which is now not due for first test flight until after BFR's. And won't, even on the most optimistic reading, be sending anyone into Lunar orbit until at least five years after SpaceX's planned mission bankrolled by Yusaku Maezawa.

    If SpaceX get this thing to fly—and it has already put the wind up ULA, Arianespace, and Roscosmos so badly that they're pivoting their future launch vehicle designs—then SLS will be dead on arrival, and SpaceX will basically have built the Boeing 747 equivalent for space transportation, the vehicle that opens it up to a mass market.

    (Note the huge if in that previous paragraph, but bear in mind that SpaceX have now been in business for 16 years, haven't gone bust, are the only folks currently operating an even-partially-reusable space launcher, and have a 65% global market share for commercial satellite launches as of mid-2018.)

    250:

    Which led to me also reading https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket) and then https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_March_(rocket_family) .

    (Links included because BFR can also be Big Fucking Rocket).

    251:

    NASA is still pressing ahead with the hugely expensive, lower payload, totally non-reusable SLS.

    What NASA isn't pressing ahead with is any funded payloads for SLS except the Orion capsule, which is designed to support four people for 21 days. That's dandy for Apollo-esque moon trips, but the Orion's service module doesn't have enough oomph to get into low lunar orbit and back to earth. And there's no lunar lander.

    Thus it's stuck with going to a higher orbit in the vicinity of the moon and doing things not yet defined, possibly involving a discussed but unfunded mini space station.

    252:

    Re: Wiki Space-X's BFR

    A Mars colony but no Earth orbit space garage/terminal or hotel?

    Also missing is how GW/CC will impact the number of feasible (money-making) launches since weather is likely to continue getting more violent unless the launch criteria become less stringent which may be likelier with tax-payer money than with a for-profit outfit. (Too great a risk to their bottom line/stock price.)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_commit_criteria

    254:

    Isn't that an LM directive of "We want it last year"?

    255:

    The joke within the space community is that the SLS (Senate Launch System) is never meant to fly, just funnel money into the same Congressional districts the Shuttle used to serve. The head of the Senate Space subcommittee is Richard Shelby, whose main district and donors are based in Huntsville, Alabama.

    He's the one who forced the requirement on commercial rockets to demonstrate Max-Q abort and pad abort, requirements that the SLS doesn't have to meet.

    Note for sleepingroutine, if he's still reading: Shelby tried to kill the SpaceX launch contract as "Obama corruption". In return, Musk attacked the use of Russian engines on the Atlas V. That was the workhorse of ULA, Shelby's biggest donor. Both Shelby and Musk soon backed down.

    256:

    Frightful Five: Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook.

    257:

    SpaceX currently have two Falcon Heavy launches coming up, one in March with a commercial satellite heading for geostationary orbit and another in April with a number of satellites heading for different orbits as part of a US Air Force test programme. The exact dates are now heavily dependent on the Dragon 2 demo mission as all three need to use LC-39A.

    The very interesting bit about the two Heavy launches is that there's only one set of first stages. Confidence in recovery and refurbishment appears to be high enough for them to plan to turn everything round in about a month. If that works out, a number of 'traditional' aerospace execs are going to be gibbering quietly...

    258:

    so.. Assume you are appointed Arianespace CEO with a brief to crush space-x. That is, you need a launch system which is just flat out better. How would you get that done?

    Best concept I have so far is a big ass hyper-sonic air-craft as a launch platform - Go up high and fast on ram-jets, launch a smaller rocket-plane at altitude and mach-7, then have it be caught by rotating tethers in orbit, but out of atmosphere.

    This should be trivially fully reuseable, and have a very good mass ratio, but.. would it be cheaper? The mother-bird launcher is, after all, going to need to be a monster.

    259:

    Charlie @ 249 What prospects for "reaction Motors" (HOTOL as-was ) in that scenario? I assume NASA is in this hole because of political(mis)direction? ... Ahhh - Ioan @ 255 - that'll be a "YES" then?

    TJ @ 258 THAT IS "Reaction Motors" - unfortuately ... it's British, so we will probably cancel it, just as soon as it works ( The principal reason for my undying haterd of the Madwoman from Grantham, incidentally ) & even if we don't, Europe wont buy it, because of certain insanities currently in progress. You could NOT make this shit up, could you?

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Are there any more recent updates on the Skunk Works compact Fusion plant?

    260:

    Finding a new way to raise the development funding has to be the first step. Currently countries contribute to the funding and get an equivalent amount of work back, so if Germany contributes 25% of the costs, 25% of the work needs to be done in Germany. This gives you design by committee where one country insists on SRBs because their industry has experience in that, another insists on hydrogen fuel, etc... Having one person running a project with full authority over design (von Braun, Korolev, Chelomei, Musk with Bezos TBD) tends to give you a durable result faster. Mixing metaphors, the more oars you have muddying the water the longer it will take and the more expensive it will be.

    261:

    Space X is bigger than that. Starlink deployment will make them the largest payload buyer in the world too, for a few years (they have FCC deadlines to beat). They are already at or close to 50% net margins on launches, they keep their prices a bit bellow ULA, but very clearly their costs have dropped dramatically. In 5 years, things are going to be radically different in the launch game, as Space X will be done with Starlink deployment (give or take, I didn't check), and will have just demonstrated huge capacity, and will have dramatically lower costs than anyone else in the business.

    And Elon can get back to his original plan. He got into rockets because commercial launch costs were so absurdly high for what he wanted to do that he decided he needed to fix that first. He said he wants to put a greenhouse on Mars, and to get some redundancy for humanity.

    262:

    NASA is still pressing ahead with the hugely expensive, lower payload, totally non-reusable SLS.

    Because Congress told them to build it. And the WH. (Trump pushed hard for them to fly it during his first term so he could brag more about it but reality set in.)

    It is a jobs program. And pork for the contractors. Nothing more. At all. Same handwaivium as the shuttle about benefits of reusing tech and all that.

    Plus NASA has been working on it for so long that https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Pournelle#Pournelle's_iron_law_of_bureaucracy

    263:

    Assume you are appointed Arianespace CEO with a brief to crush space-x.

    Just read an article a week or so ago about how the execs there said they could not compete due to lack of launch contracts. Too few to support dev of new launch (especially the reusable bits) and the too few is due to not having a plan going back 5 to 10 years to do so.

    So they seem to be admitting they might be in a long term death spiral.

    264:

    My read on the LockMart fusion reactor is it's a tax write-down of some kind.

    I mean, it might work … the productivity of mega-projects like novel reactor designs doesn't scale linearly with input cash, it scales as something like the third or fourth power, so it's not obviously insane to think that a $250M fusion project will deliver significantly worse results than a $250Bn one …

    But if LockMart were clearly onto something good, I'd expect there to be competitors throwing their hats in the ring by now.

    265:

    I'd expect there to be competitors throwing their hats in the ring by now.

    There may be enough still around who remember "cold fusion" and thus are taking a wait and see attitude.

    266:

    Another interesting angle: AIUI, the mere existence of Falcon Heavy has permitted geosynchronous comsat manufacturers to let their corset laces out a bit; I seem to recall that Arabsat VI-A is too big/heavy to launch using existing vehicles (e.g. Ariane 5-ECA) but well within the Falcon Heavy payload range.

    If this is true, then over the next couple of years we're going to see bigger, more powerful, heavier GEO comsats being designed/built, which in turn require Falcon Heavy at a minimum — or the cargo version of Starship. So Starship will enter service with a new emerging market that doesn't currently exist (as well as the obvious launch-multiple-payloads-at-once market).

    And nobody else will be able to compete because their launchers are just too small/expendable.

    It's a bit like the way Boeing and McD-D comprehensively trashed the British airliner industry in the 50s/60s; the British jets were all just that little bit too small/too short range to compete, cf. the Trident with the Boeing 727, the VC-10 with the Boeing 707, and so on. (Concorde vs. the 747, as well: Concorde's designers assumed air travel was going to remain elite-only, the 747 was designed as a bulk freighter but cut the cost of economy seats and generated a new market.)

    267:

    Possibly. But my guess is that it's another IA-64 project - some glib salesmen persuaded a large company to put a huge investment on the line, based on persuading it that they could produce a technical solution to a problem that had defeated the world for decades. And, of course, once the 'decision makers' have gone public, they will continue with the hype etc. without prodding.

    268:

    The UK has a big-ass satellite manufacturing sector these days! We make about £16Bn a year of payloads. Unfortunately 38% of 2018's output was sold to the French, in the shape of Ariane/ESA, so Brexit fucks our space sector royally.

    Reaction Engines … too little, too late. Yes, it's reusable. But the Sabre engine burns LH2, which is a royal pain in the ass to handle, and the proposed payload per launch for Skylon is a piffling 15,000kg to LEO. Falcon 9 block 5 can put 22,800kg into LEO in expendable mode, or about 9000kg into LEO with first stage recovery, and it's flying today (and the first stage accounts for about 80% of the flight costs). Sklyon's payload is smaller than the Falcon Heavy payload in recoverable mode, and is about 15% of the BFR payload (BFR is fully reflyable).

    So basically it's going to be dead on arrival, if it ever does arrive, at least as a satellite launcher.

    However, I believe BAe systems are getting a lot of money from the USAF and DARPA for research into using related technology in a Mach 5 hypersonic recce bird/drone. That I can believe in ...

    269:

    I put the same question to the reddit hive mind. Winner so far "Just build a Lofstrom loop". 30-40 billion, which is mostly the 8 eprs French Guiana would need to keep it going full throttle, and you can send 3 million metric tonnes into orbit at 3 euro/kilo.

    ... The EU has done larger projects than that, so. Is there a market for putting megatonnes of stuff in orbit?

    270:

    "is there a market for putting megatonnes of stuff in orbit"?

    I dunno, but Musk wants BFR to hit airliner-like levels of reusability. 100 ton payload per 3500 tons of methalox fuel/oxidizer, which he proposes will eventually be produced by Fischer-Tropsch synthesis from CO2/water using power from his PV farms. Yeah, that's not going to be supremely energy efficient, but if he can make it all work then single digit euros/kg costs aren't out of reach eventually. Huge sunk costs for the multi-gigawatt PV farms and fuel synthesis plant, and BFR isn't exactly a cheap beast to build—project R&D is estimated at $5Bn initially—but it may make that Lofstrom Loop proposal look over-priced.

    Also, the failure mode for an LL is kinda terrifying, especially if it's within splatting distance of a farm of gigawatt scale EPRs. Whereas the failure mode for BFR is well understood (rocket go BOOM, indent for a new lump of pre-stressed concrete for it to stand on).

    271:

    You wrote: I have an extraterrestrial fusions power source in my backyard. I use it to recharge the power pack that makes my whirling blades of death self-defence apparatus operate. Or, I have a solar panel for my battery lawnmower.

    Nyah-hah-hah, I have just stolen that line....

    272:

    sigh

    No, it wasn't just Congress. I got friendly with a guy when I started a job in '83, and what he told me was this: a friend of his, who worked for Rockwell, told him that the original design was much smaller (think closer to the X-37 of the USAF). But then the Pentagon got it massively upsized... so it could carry a specified number of "nuclear devices".

    I have never had any reason to doubt that.

    273:

    Actually, the Shuttle did not need tearing down and rebuilding after every flight. It did need a lot of maintenance - replacing tiles, cleaning it out, and, oh, yes, inspection.

    I have that directly from my late ex, who was an engineer at the Cape for 17 years, and who worked on the Shuttle (and on the Station).

    As an aside, her analysis of the Columbia disaster was that it was not tiles, that they lost tiles all the time, Instead, she thought that what happened was that hydraulic lines in one wing broke during Max-Q on reentry, due to micro stress corrosion cracking*... at which point, the Shuttle was a mach-25 set of car keys.

    Oh, and she had doubts about the frequency and thoroughness of inspections, because inside the wing was a very small area, and she used to do the inspections... being 5' (on a good day, and standing up straight) and 105lb soaking wet. Big guys couldn't get in there.

    • As she put it, you're on the ocean. The air is full of salt. Ever seen what a chrome bumper on a car looks like after a year by the ocean?
    274:

    Looks like Arabsat 6A is around 6000kg which is within the Ariane 5 capacity, though may need to be a single payload rather than shared.

    If BFR hits its payload to LEO targets the game changer will be a reusable upper stage. A 100t payload is room enough for a stage that can drop a typical comsat payload directly into GEO and return itself to LEO for collection by the cargo BFS. That means the comsat doesn't need to use its own fuel to circularise and plane change to get from GTO to GEO, and these days the life limit is more often station keeping fuel running low than electronics giving up.

    275:
    Best concept I have so far is a big ass hyper-sonic air-craft as a launch platform - Go up high and fast on ram-jets, launch a smaller rocket-plane at altitude and mach-7, then have it be caught by rotating tethers in orbit, but out of atmosphere.

    Way to bury the lede there with the rotovator there, man!

    As a fun aside, did you know that Boeing actually did some engineering work on essentially this concept? http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/391Grant.pdf

    276:
    My read on the LockMart fusion reactor is it's a tax write-down of some kind. [....] But if LockMart were clearly onto something good, I'd expect there to be competitors throwing their hats in the ring by now.

    Here's a contrarian take:

    The LockMart reactor is the competition. It's a deep-pocket player jumping into the ring trying to preempt the little guys.

    Looking back, Bussard's Polywell reactor program was being run on a shoestring for years with US Navy research funding. Since Dr. Bussard passed away, the program continued at a slow pace and was rumored to have positive results, but was having trouble finding funding. Notably, though, the data seems to be largely classified.

    Meanwhile, when I searched around a couple years ago, it looked like there was at least one, possibly several venture funded fusion startups attempting to build exotic reactors along these lines. However, there was very little public information available about these places.

    LockMart's design, from what they released, appears to be a hybrid electric and magnetic confinement design, unlike the Polywell fusor. However, it's similar in the basic concept of a compact small-scale reactor.

    Now, I don't really know anything about plasma physics. Just trying to parse what others wrote, it seems like the consensus view is that these things are a long shot at best, but that the plasma physics involved is not well understood. Plus, a fair bit of the research is, well, classified.

    If there's a 5% chance it works and the upside is almost incalculable (boxcar size portable fusion power plants? Really?) and a bunch of VC's and Navy research money are involved, well. Maybe we need a piece of that.

    277:

    Heteromeles @ 235: IIRC, it's also not true, since the "30 years away" claim was made steadily since the 1950s.

    Seems like we've been able to produce fusion since the early 50s. It's just a matter of containing it, sustaining it and extracting usable power from it. It's usable power from fusion that's always 30 years away.

    Reading the Wikipedia page Charlie suggested, it seems like they've accomplished "containing it", and "sustaining it" is up to 100 seconds or so (with no clear indication of how long it takes them to prepare it and/or how long it takes to shut it back down so the system can be readied for another 100 seconds of operation). But that's two out of three.

    I couldn't tell (from the wiki article) if they've figured out how to "extract power" from it or not? It also wasn't clear whether the power out yet exceeds the power input required to get the darn thing started. Doesn't look to me like there's going to be any breakthrough in fusion power in my lifetime, but it does look like they're making progress and might get there someday.

    278:

    David L @ 242:

    She was from Western Kentucky

    Getting a bit local here but may I ask what town(s)? I'm from near Paducah.

    Freedonia, near Princeton, KY. Last time I visited up there, Paducah was the nearest town that had a liquor store.

    279:

    If the others "out there" are indeed working on a different time-scale to us, we might see them but not immediately realize it. Take, for example, Gliese 710 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gliese_710 ) it will be passing by our star in a little over 1.2 million years, perhaps it is really a starship. :)

    Previous close encounters https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_stars_and_brown_dwarfs#Distant_future_and_past_encounters were merely scouts checking up on our development. (Those aren't brown dwarfs, they are small Dyson spheres!) They determined that we would be ready to meet them in about million years, so the envoy was sent. I figure, baring complete extinction, we should have colonies in the Oort cloud by then.

    280:

    SpaceX have at least got the benefit of learning how to land a rocket on its tail (go watch that video—it's priceless!) on expendables, subsidized by commercial payloads. That was at least somewhat impressive feat for private company - before that, this was only in the scope of capacity of most developed nations. However, if you consider how many brains were borrowed from NASA and such project as Sea Launch and other agencies in the 2000s, it seems less impressive. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Launch He may be a talented manager and have education, but his history does not betray an engineering stem in him. To put it mildly.

    Having gotten a handle on it, now they're preparing something on the order of ambition of a shuttle, namely BFR, due to fly by 2020 (I'm betting it'll be a year or two late), and which—if it works—will deliver what the shuttle managers promised Congress Realistically thinking, we would be fairly lucky if he puts his crewed Dragon capsule into space before 2020. Manned rocket isn't a can of sardines which you can just seal and launch on ISS, it is an autonomous vehicle world, environmentally sealed and safe for human habitation and dangers of atmospheric reentry.

    To put it into perspective, here's BBC article I dug out from 10 years before (where grass was greener and the air was cleaner). http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7800721.stm

    "The Falcon 9-Dragon system is intended to replace the function of the space shuttle when that retires in 2010," says Elon Musk. "Hopefully we'll do the first demonstration flight next year of the Falcon 9-Dragon system, then particular demonstrations in 2010 and start doing operation missions possibly by the end of 2010," Mr Musk told BBC News. Whatever you say, magic man.

    Now, about this whole buffoonery with Mars. For about 10 or so years I recognize it a s a special failure mode of the whole space-related bureaucracy. I mean, all the space programs are heavy on that, even private ones. The concept that I once heard from historical perspective. "When there's two options presented and they are very difficult, let's go for the third one, that is barely even realistic."

    To put it more elaborately. If the bureaucracy has a very pressing issue at hand (like, say, ISS construction, maintenance and overall development of low-earth astronautics) and there's also some other very pressing, but more ambitious issue (like getting back to the moon, for one), it starts to develop a sort of split personality. There's not enough money to go for both targets simultaneously, and the people are confused where to go - but that's not the worst part of it. When the split reaches its culmination, BOTH parties decide to go for the THIRD option, which is neither beneficial nor realistic for ANY of them - they went for Mars! And that's what they've been doing since then - with not as much as a spot of hope.

    It is similar to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abilene_paradox, only it is induced by very obvious lack of decisiveness.

    On the bright side, Mars One just declared to be dead at last. Color me surprised. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanocallaghan/2019/02/11/goodbye-mars-one-the-fake-mission-to-mars-that-fooled-the-world/#762ad1f12af5

    281:

    "Unfortunately 38% of 2018's output was sold to the French, in the shape of Ariane/ESA, so Brexit fucks our space sector royally."

    Stross, in short Bollocks, it doesn't.

    In that if you are making a thrilling moral high point of deliberately trashing 38% of your established business with your current vendor, on some high point of political principle, it is YOU that now has the problem. If your business now has to find a new, foreign, contractors to meet your launch commitments, presumably the European Union will be explaining why it is right to wreck projects and any launch schedules to make some observant moral point of dealing with the Russians, the United States and the Chinese, and that they are not doing it for launch costs....Oh no, it is to punish those bastards for voting for Brexit.

    Skylon is crap for several reasons that I can agree on, including your concerns about hydrogen, but it is not because of it's "small" payload rate. If Skylon's operation has an ability to "turn around" each aircraft in it's fleet, arguably you are not giving it fair hearing, considering that SpaceX is doing "reusability" with a time frame measured in months, and the fact that it is a fortuitously derived afterthought from what otherwise is a conventional launch vehicle, and so will never scale upwards to righter launch rates, becuase ths infrastructure to launch each rocket is massive and is inflexible, where a runway is not.

    In landing those lower stages, SpaceX is only doing what the DC-X did in the early 1990's, as Jerry Pournelle, Max Hunter and G. Harry Stine each outlined in their own accounts about the project. For example, the DC-X literally used a repurposed engine throttle and flight data controller from an MD-11 Airliner.

    282:

    On the flip side, we could interpret GRBs as just shots fired in interstellar wars, and since they are so focused, we only see a small percentage of them. (I zap your solar system, HA HA HA!!)

    283:

    to Charlie Stross @266 If this is true, then over the next couple of years we're going to see bigger, more powerful, heavier GEO comsats being designed/built, which in turn require Falcon Heavy at a minimum Falcon Heavy is not at its operational parameters - the payload of a demonstrator was by really very much below it's operational plans. And this is before we remember that Musk was going to put his capsule on Mars as far as two years ago - and just never ever mentioned it after some point. Realistically speaking, both F9 and FH cover only 2 areas on commercially viable ranges of payload parameters. Commercial loads right now are moving towards more compact, universal and ultimately expendable platforms. Cubesats and other lighter things. I wonder how many more people are worried about space debris issues now.

    to Thomas Jørgensen @269 The EU has done larger projects than that, so. Is there a market for putting megatonnes of stuff in orbit It's been stated about 15 years ago that there will be market if the price will drop considerably. Then it will allow people to launch by an order of magnitude more satellites in orbit and conduct more complex space programs with generous help of SpaceX and their competition model.

    What we have today: price did not drop and market has been increasing notably only in 2010-2013 as Russian space business has been rushing ahead with more launch options. Most of success in commercial business for SpaceX was aggressive market takeover - the overall volume of it did not increase. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_launch_market_competition

    to Ioan @255 In return, Musk attacked the use of Russian engines on the Atlas V. That was the workhorse of ULA, Shelby's biggest donor. Both Shelby and Musk soon backed down. I'm struggligt to remember things that Musk did not attack. I'm pretty sure the blanket ban on space compoents US slapped on Russian space program AND involvement in destruction of Ukrainian space industry were both his activities.

    284:

    Yeah, just lost my Dad on the 18th of last month, had to thread my way through the bureaucracy... lucky he was really organized. just had to do the eulogy, funeral is on Friday... stress... if you ever have to do such, my entire brainwave was start at the end, work back

    285:

    If your business now has to find a new, foreign, contractors to meet your launch commitments

    Ah, no, you didn't get the point: the UK builds a lot of satellites, but doesn't launch them. We just build kit for other people. (Much as the UK has the second largest car manufacturing sector in the EU, after Germany, but they mostly have names like Nissan or Ford.)

    The UK hasn't sacked its launch supplier (via Brexit); rather, the Brexit fiasco is going to make it a whole lot harder for UK suppliers to get work with the EU space sector (prop. mostly France and Italy, plus a bit of Germany).

    SpaceX is doing "reusability" with a time frame measured in months

    That's the Block 4 Falcon 9. Block 5 is the designed-for-reusability model; Musk may be a showman, but one of the things he promised for this year is a 24 hour turnaround—not as a routine event, but as a stunt (similar to the WW2 shipyard that turned out Liberty Ships in a couple of weeks but at one point set a speed record by building one in 72 hours).

    SpaceX is already responsible for something like 60% of the world's commercial satellite launches, and is flying a bird every two weeks on average.

    As for DC-X … didn't that one crash and burn on its last flight? And you will note it was a small test vehicle—fully fueled it weighed 18.9 tonnes; Falcon 9 can put a fully fuelled DC-X into orbit as a payload.

    (Some of the engineering talent went to Blue Origin and work on New Shepherd, so I suppose there's that, but DC-X itself dead-ended in '96.)

    286:

    I'm pretty sure the blanket ban on space compoents US slapped on Russian space program AND involvement in destruction of Ukrainian space industry were both his activities.

    I think you credit him with far too much influence over US space policy! (He seems to be incapable of even heading off rivals at ULA from springing an irregular Defense Department investigation into how FH got certified to carry USAF payloads on him.)

    Part of the problem with space, incidentally, is a chicken-and-egg problem: spacecraft are horribly expensive, so they're planned a very long time in advance and built to meticulous and very expensive standards, which of course is horribly expensive …

    The sheer scale of Starlink may begin to change this. But it'll take time.

    As for cubesats, I think they're a response to a payload mass constraint rather than a deliberate choice—if you're a university science lab with a $250K/year budget, do you go for a 1Kg cubesat (launch cost: maybe $100K) or a 100Kg research satellite (launch cost: maybe $2M)? That should be obvious! But if the 100Kg satellite costs $100K to put into orbit, you probably don't bother with the cubesats any more.

    287:

    DC-X crashed because the technician forgot to wire up one of the leg release actuators. It was supposed to run more tests, but it was an unpopular project, so it stopped there. (If it was popular, they would have just built another test article, in Govt terms it wasn't that expensive).

    288:

    For those of you (interested in) watching Australia burn, the Westralian government have quite a neat interactive mapping tool: https://myfirewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au/

    In the office right now we're trying to work out why we have orange clouds over Sydney that smell vaguely of smoke. More accurately, wondering which fire is supplying the smell.

    Actual air quality outside my back door is ok, it's just a very orange day https://www.uradmonitor.com/tools/dashboard-04/?open=82000090

    289:

    While up here we had schools closed* because of a nasty winter storm. Snow, ice pellets, and freezing rain make a nasty mess to drive through (and not much fun for walking either).

    *But not until I had already arrived, because they didn't send out the notice until a few minutes before I arrived at the school. Rather surprised, as this storm wasn't as bad as the one that we were open for a few weeks ago. Also annoyed, as I'd checked the website before leaving just after 6 AM, and there was no notice of closure (which was supposed to be published by 6). So drove to work for nothing :-(

    290:
    In landing those lower stages, SpaceX is only doing what the DC-X did in the early 1990's, [...]

    Focusing on the part about SpaceX landing rockets on their tail is really missing the arguably more notable parts of their program. But even so, while other rockets have landed vertically, SpaceX is the first to really put it into regular practice.

    The other big part of their first stage recovery program is hypersonic retropropulsion. The first stage essentially avoids breaking apart or burning up when it hits the atmosphere by firing the rockets in reverse, using the plume of hypersonic gas to essentially construct a relatively safe pocket of atmosphere to slide through.

    This is something NASA modeled for the Space Shuttle as one of their early abort procedures -- the Shuttle would reenter flying backwards -- but AIUI their computer models weren't good enough to show it would work until the late '90s. In addition, well, reportedly the astronauts put in a hard "NO" at the proposal to ever test it in anything short of an exploding rocket scenario.

    Just comparing the Falcon 9 to Delta Clipper etc. is somewhat missing the point, as it's actually landing after flying to space at orbital booster speeds and coming back first.

    291:

    sigh I got friendly with a guy when I started a job in '83, and what he told me was this: a friend of his, who worked for Rockwell, told him that the original design was much smaller (think closer to the X-37 of the USAF). But then the Pentagon got it massively upsized... so it could carry a specified number of "nuclear devices".

    Oh I know it was more complicated. I've read a lot of boring reports on the process written after the fact and some by people involved.

    Nixon was on a cost cutting campaign. And could care less about space flight. At all. He cancelled the last 2 Apollo moon trips to save money. As some put it "yep, he saved the last 5% after the first 95% was spent".

    CBO (Congressional Budget Office) (or whatever was the equivalent at the time) got involved plus the Nixon White House and said too much money, too many things, too much throw away. NASA was told to work with the Pentagon and they both come up with ONE thing (a space truck) to do everything you want to do in the future or we will not give you money for anything. (Well, just spy sats and weather but we'll be pissed about it.) The guys at NASA decided they'd rather work in a messed up space program than design bumpers on cars. So they went along. Absurd promises and all.

    In the middle of this Nixon blew up his presidency and the D's took over both houses and people who had been pissed at all the moon money not being spent on social programs demanded reusable everything to save money.

    Then what really made it expensive on top of all the other things mentioned was that it had to carry what are now 2nd and 3rd stage rockets with sats on them to LEO then launch them on. Of course since we have a reusable space truck this will be cheaper. Right? But this meant those 2nd and 3rd stage rocket equivalents had to be MAN rated. Oops. OK pick your multiplier. 2X? 3X? 10X?

    It was purely a politically driven design that never made engineering sense for any of it's supposed functions.

    As to nukes, that's a new one to me. But who knows. Plus that could easily been an early hidden spec that went away (at least officially) with later treaties banning nukes in space.

    Then we get to the current mess of the NASA launcher. No mater what NASA or the engineers said they were told to "save money" (keep our current companies on the tit employed) and reuse shuttle bits like solid rocket boosters. Again politicians are better designers of rockets than engineers. Right?

    So now SpaceX and others have an opening. And they jumped in with both feet. Had engineers design newer better rockets. ULA, NASA, and Ariane to some degree are trying how to justify their existence.

    292:

    As a fun aside, did you know that Boeing actually did some engineering work on essentially this concept?

    Paul Allen BUILT one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratolaunch_Systems

    But since he died before getting to play with it his estate isn't sure just what the long terms plans are for the setup. They have already scaled back the initial goals.

    293:

    Just comparing the Falcon 9 to Delta Clipper etc. is somewhat missing the point, as it's actually landing after flying to space at orbital booster speeds and coming back first.

    Improvements in computer power/size/speed also makes a big difference.

    A mostly analog control system in the 60s would have to be built with a lot of assumptions about things. With computers today and the way it was built on boosters that could be loft sats while experimenting, it was much easier.

    294:
    Paul Allen BUILT one.

    You missed the part about the skyhook. ;-)

    The ramjets and carrier planes and such are just window dressing.

    295:

    Not quite - To get a sky-hook to not catch fire from atmospheric drag, you need to meet it going fast and going high. The rocket part may be unneeded, if you can get the ramjet on a fast enough ballistic arc out of atmo, it can just hand over a cargo-container to the hook directly, and its not like a deeply hypersonic plane has no other applications.

    Main thing it has going for it over the launch loop is that it still makes sense at volumes below "I need 5 million tonnes in orbit per year" volumes. I.. am not at all sure there is a market for that.

    296:

    "I think you credit him with far too much influence over US space policy! (He seems to be incapable of even heading off rivals at ULA from springing an irregular Defense Department investigation into how FH got certified to carry USAF payloads on him.)"

    While that statement is true, Musk IS actually responsible for the sanctions on the Ukrainian and Russian space industries.

    As you know, Musk won one of the Commercial Crew slots on the promise to return astronauts to space in 2012 (as opposed to the SLS promised launch date of 2015). When Republicans won Congress after the 2014 election, Senator Shelby attempted to kill the Commercial Crew program, and transfer the money to the SLS. ULA was one of the main donors to the Shelby re-election campaign.

    For those who don't know, ULA flies two rocket models: the Atlas V and Delta IV. The Atlas V uses Russian engines. The Air Force requires that there be a minimum of 2 rocket models capable of launching its satellites. Around that time, ULA was lobbying Sen Shelby and Sen McCain to dump the Delta IV (which ULA still considers too expensive and difficult to handle). https://spacenews.com/ula-targets-2018-for-delta-4-phase-out-seeks-relaxation-of-rd-180-ban/

    To preempt this, Musk met with Sen. McCain, chairman of the Senate Armed Service Committee. He is rumored to have lobbied McCain to end the Atlas V program on national security grounds. That would have made the Falcon 9 the second model capable of launching Air Force satellites after the Delta IV. Furthermore, it is rumored that Musk sought to convince McCain that cancelling the Commercial Crew program would jeopardize the Falcon 9, which would be the only alternative to the Delta IV. To emphasize his point, he allegedly detailed the cooperation between ULA and Russia/Ukraine. As a result of this, McCain sanctioned all ULA purchases of Ukrainian/Russian equipment with the exception of the engines. He was too hold hearings which would decide his faith.

    Soon after this happened, Shelby shelved his plan to cancel Commercial Crew, and Musk stopped pointing out ULA's dependence on Russia. At the end, McCain did not sanction the engines.

    The difference between SR's opinion on Musk and mine is that while SR thinks that Musk has been going out of his way to sabotage Russia's space program, I see the sabotage as a desperate move to protect his company.

    297:

    "That's the Block 4 Falcon 9. Block 5 is the designed-for-reusability model; Musk may be a showman, but one of the things he promised for this year is a 24 hour turnaround—not as a routine event, but as a stunt (similar to the WW2 shipyard that turned out Liberty Ships in a couple of weeks but at one point set a speed record by building one in 72 hours)."

    I find it highly unlikely he'll manage this stunt this year. The Block 5 reduced the turnaround time from ~4 months to ~2 months, as far as I know (that Table has a column for Turnaround Time). While the actual turnaround time may be shorter than this, I don't have any reliable numbers to prove that one way or another. I still think that a turnaround time of a month is ambitious, and he'd be lucky to meet this goal, never mind the 24 hour turnaround time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_first-stage_boosters

    298:

    "What we have today: price did not drop and market has been increasing notably only in 2010-2013 as Russian space business has been rushing ahead with more launch options. Most of success in commercial business for SpaceX was aggressive market takeover - the overall volume of it did not increase."

    The data does not agree with your interpretation.

  • The total number of commercial launches 2010-2012 increased by 5 (29 to 34). The total from 2012-2018 increased by 7 (34 - 41).

  • Let's look at the overall launch market. Contra Musk's boasts, most of his payloads have not been commercial. Note that the ISS resupply missions aren't considered commercial (a point of debate within the space community).

  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_spaceflight

    As you can see in the chart above, 2018 was the first time since 1990 that humanity launched more than 100 rockets in a year. SR may not consider that significant, but I do.

    "Realistically speaking, both F9 and FH cover only 2 areas on commercially viable ranges of payload parameters. Commercial loads right now are moving towards more compact, universal and ultimately expendable platforms. Cubesats and other lighter things."

    There's a lot of hype and BS around cubesats right now; I wouldn't trust the predictions.

  • If you remember the predictions that laptops would kill desktops, smartphones/tablets would kill laptops, everyone would have a personal drone, etc. This is where the prediction that cubesats would kill of normal sized satellites belong.

  • While cubesats are a growing niche, they're still a niche. Their main customer is Universities, hobbyists, and some non-profit scientific facilities. The market size here is limited.

  • a. So far, I've only seen one commercially-viable company which uses cubesats: PlanetLabs. Their business model doesn't strictly require cubesats. I've run across a competitor which does the same thing by buying images from old satellites at a price that's competitive to PlanetLab's constellation.

  • SpaceX is smart not to waste time building a dedicated cubesat launcher.
  • a. Of the ~40 startups which are trying to build launchers, I'd be surprised if more than 3 survive, let alone dominate the market.

    b. Most cubesats are launched either as extra cargo on rockets with a different primary customer, or on a dedicated rocket carrying 60-90 cubesats. Russia, India, and SpaceX have launched such cubesat fleets. In my opinion, such fleet launches are going to dominate the cubesat market, not the dedicated launchers.

  • The Geosynchronous satellite market is very cyclical. The launches aren't evenly spread throughout the decade; they peak and trough in a sinusoidal wave. Right now, we're leaving the peak of the market towards the trough. This is giving false signals about the appeal of cubesats.
  • 299:

    Great idea. I'm glad I thought if it at post 149.

    One more thought about GRBs, (and going back to Lovecraft) is that GRBs could be weapons in the war between the Elder Gods and the Great Old Ones, and globular clusters could be the remains of attempts to build high-energy weapons for use in God-vs-God struggles.

    300:

    The one I followed is known as Focus Fusion. Very much a shoestring operation. For a while they had a website describing their progress, which was mostly what the current engineering challenge was and what they were doing about it. The site was clearly written by engineers. Suddenly, the website got much slicker and the information content dropped to about zero. I assumed the scammers had taken over and stopped following it.

    I always thought it was a lottery ticket. But a good lottery ticket. The key bit was trying to exploit plasma instability rather than controlling it.

    They did pitch to some deep pockets and did get a bit of funding for a while. I have not seen an explanation from any of the deep pockets as to why they did not pursue, so it is entirely possible there is a fundamental problem (as opposed to a tall stack of engineering problems).

    There is also a small tokamak startup that got some recent press. Their take is that small can work if you pound on the engineering enough.

    301:
    The one I followed is known as Focus Fusion.

    After a small amount of very lazy searching, I dug up the following fusion startups:

    • TAE Technologies: "FRC" magnetic confinement (aneutronic), US (California), Funding: Paul Allen etc., $800M.
    • Commonwealth Fusion Systems: Modified Tokamak, US (Massachusetts), Funding: Research fund with various famous billionaires, $75M.
    • Tokamak Energy: "High field" Tokamak, UK, Funding: £50M.
    • General Fusion: "Magnetized Target Fusion", magnetic/inertial hybrid, Canada, Funding: $127M.

    It's nothing like software or biotech startups, but there certainly does seem to be a bit of money flowing into these companies lately. The LockMart team may not even have particularly deep pockets.

    302:

    I knew I was forgetting one. Another local!

    Helion Energy: "Magneto-Inertial", US (Washington), Funding: $30M.

    Apparently they want to make balls of ³He / D plasma and then make them smack into each other using magnets.

    This in contrast to General Fusion next door in British Columbia, which is apparently using a much more steampunk sounding vortex of liquid metal (driven by pistons) with compressed balls of ³H / D plasma in the middle.

    I mean who cares if this stuff works, it's way more fun than another middleware startup.

    303:

    "Ah, no, you didn't get the point: the UK builds a lot of satellites, but doesn't launch them. We just build kit for other people. (Much as the UK has the second largest car manufacturing sector in the EU, after Germany, but they mostly have names like Nissan or Ford.)

    The UK hasn't sacked its launch supplier (via Brexit); rather, the Brexit fiasco is going to make it a whole lot harder for UK suppliers to get work with the EU space sector (prop. mostly France and Italy, plus a bit of Germany).

    I think you've got the relationship backwards, and are being a bit naive about how Europe works.

    The EU is sacking it's payload construction contractor, and is then going to spend a lot of time flailing around wondering what it is going to do next. They have a lot more money sunk into their now under utilised launcher programmes than this country does into satellite payloads. It is effectively making a high moral point of cutting off its' nose to spite it's face, punishing those bastards for voting for Brexit, and wrecking pre-existing contracts for satellites whose lead times and missions are measured in years. That's not our fault, it's their choice.

    As I stated, if you chose to do that, figuratively speaking, it is YOU that has the problem.

    It's a bit like that scene in Watchmen, where Rorschash is in prison. He correctly points out to any prisoner who has a history with him that "No, you're now locked in here with ME." The EU has locked itself in, and unless it is prepared to be "open," "concilliatory" and "sensible" even, it now either has to grow up and negotiate, or do a lot of work to replicate capability that it is cutting off it's nose to spite its' face in refusing to find a way to continue to employ.

    It was always difficult for the British to get any work or development money with what effectively is an exercise in handing out work to your mates. There is also the reality that some people in the tending process are stupidly naive in not considering that "Europe" might work that way. European space launch is very much a closed shop in the form of companies like Dassault and ArianeSpace, who are nakedly and preferentially given work in respect to any project, over any outsider.

    If you are unfamiliar with it, have a read about the Dassault MLA, and notice how the link is clearly not written by a native English speaker, who gives the game away:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aldebaran_(rocket) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaI2tq-Cdes

    Right there on Wikipedia: They are giving money, to their mates, to arse about with a jet fighter, as in "Aldebaran is not a commercial project; its primary goal is to focus technologies on a flight test bed developing future technologies, industrial skills and competencies of research centres."

    Lucky them! Free money, from the ESA under the "Future Launchers Preparatory Programme." I think we'd all like to be invited to that meeting, to develop our core compentencies, only we weren't invited to that meeting, and never will be.

    In personal experience, if you are French, you nakedly hand a train construction contract to Alstom, if you're German, you nakedly hand the work to Siemens, if you are Spanish the work automatically goes to CAF and if you're Italian, you say a prayer and hand the work to FIAT. Foreign bids are politely received and ideally reasons found to file them in the bin. Probably the same situation with space launch.

    Isn't it curious how the European Space Agency never gives Skylon/Reaction Engines any money? It isn't that the project isn't any good (It isn't, as using liquid hydrogen is terrible from an economic angle.), it is more that it is not being run by SUPAERO graduates, whereupon it would have money firehosed at it in the name of competencies of research centres.

    "SpaceX is already responsible for something like 60% of the world's commercial satellite launches, and is flying a bird every two weeks on average."

    But you do wonder about how much money it makes, though? They never say, and are privately owned and so never have to. There is no IPO in the offering, either. I would bet that it pays it's staff and covers it's costs, but nothing more. That he's going to turn one of these vehicles around in 24 hours as a stunt seems "characteristically reckless," as a good European might put it.

    304:

    Small is often better for innovative engineering, but this is different. When the best minds in the world, in a very wide range of organisations, backed by lots of money, have failed to make progress over 50 years, it's a near-certain indication of one of three things:

    1) The problem is intractable, there is almost no hope of a solution, ever, and a new objective is needed; 2) The technology environment does not exist, so a solution will not be found until that changes, radically (!); 3) The solution remains inaccessible, because it needs a seminal genius (*) to produce a breakthrough, so a solution will not be found until one appears and takes and interest.

    In terms for the relative risks and cost-benefit of research, cold fusion was unjustly damned - those weren't all that different from hot fusion. It's not QUITE a pure boondoggle, but it passes the duck test for being one.

    (!) E.g. 1970s electronics versus 1920s, not just minor tweaks.

    (*) Of the sort that creates or revolutionises whole areas of science.

    305:

    You are implying that there are no competitors and the requirements are immutable.

    No, Brexit isn't going to cause the cancellation of existing contracts, but it IS going to cause a shift to future ones going elsewhere. As others have said, this will start with the non-critical contracts, like most R&D, but it will then progress to ones where this is an alternative supplier, and go on to the active development of other suppliers.

    306:

    "Improvements in computer power/size/speed also makes a big difference.

    A mostly analog control system in the 60s would have to be built with a lot of assumptions about things. With computers today and the way it was built on boosters that could be loft sats while experimenting, it was much easier."

    The DC-X didn't use anything for avionics that dated from the 60's, it's designers were under instruction to use the latest technology but they couldn't specify anything that was "vapourware," so to speak. An example lay in the form of proposing a liquid air cycle engine since you were using liquid hydrogen, that got sat on quickly by (IIRC) Pete Worden, who ran the program.

    The computers on the DC-X were literally repurposed off an MD-11 Airliner. It thought it was an MD-11 with a really weird flight plan.

    307:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_propulsion

    There are a couple of systems proposed for launching using power from ground based lasers, this lets you run H2 for a propellant, for example, which gets you a crazy high ISP. That could beat Space X

    308:

    Several people seem to be confusing the EU and ESA, they have overlapping membership but far from identical. The only project the UK will be unable to get involved in after Brexit is the Galileo navigation system which, as has been mentioned here before, has a clause in the agreement barring non-EU countries from certain contracts and from the encrypted side of the signals. Said clause was inserted in the agreement at the instistence of the UK.

    The majority of the UK space industry is owned by European conglomerates, eg SSTL is part of Airbus.

    Reaction Engines gets a considerable amount of funding from the ESA.

    309:

    Pete Conrad, third man on the moon, was the one involved in DC-X. Alledgedly spent some time measuring up a space in the nose of the craft and working out how to get a seat in there...

    310:

    "As others have said, this will start with the non-critical contracts, like most R&D, but it will then progress to ones where this is an alternative supplier, and go on to the active development of other suppliers."

    Which is kind of my point, in that you then need to contemplate whether we are losing much and were ever going to get that work anyway, Brexit or not. Stross is concerned about the loss of business, but in the light of Brexit, should you care about that loss or should you take a very hard look at how if the European contracting processes are as blatantly rigged as they clearly are, is it really competitive, and why would anyone defend it?

    As in, why play the game, when the game is rigged?

    "active development of other suppliers." = "Jobs for your mates," as the MLA example illustrates. Rather than acting like adults, and trading with the people that they already know can do the work, apparently the ESA is going to spend years replicating that capability, 'cos, Brexit, 'cos reasons.

    You and I don't get invited to that meeting, and we don't get free money to "develop our core competencies" off of the European Space Agency. It also strikes me that a lot of people in the UK government don't bother going either, and when they do, they don't think of the meeting in this way.

    304: You missed off your list the idea that there is no progress in a technology because the procurement process is corrupt, or at least is not clear to anyone who tries to negotiate it. Fusion probably fails because there is no clear market for it beyond "energy supply," which is nice, but we have that already, so it never gets money beyond chickenfeed, and each startup that comes through the door is wasting it's time. Few investors say it openly, but if all you're doing is supplying a pre-existing need, spending money to replicate that need via another route is not attractive.

    Blatant corruption can occur: Car safety is an example in that the US industry had to be shamed into providing it in the sixties, the car companies kept quiet, the legislators saw no votes in it and in the case of the Ford Pinto, it was famously agreed by the bean counters that it was cheaper to skimp upon a five dollar part, and pay out for the burn injuries. Why bother?

    311:

    Simon "Pete" Worden was the guy who ran the program. As in, drove a desk. Pete Conrad was the guy who flew it, as in ran the rocket from the repurposed trailer. Worden had to police the program quite severely to make the staff get the idea that you must only use stuff that is already available. G. Harry Stine emphasises this in his book "Halfway To Anywhere."

    "Reaction Engines gets a considerable amount of funding from the ESA."

    I thought that that was all money from the UK government? As in, George Osbourne making a great play about visiting them a while back. He stood in front of their Viper test stand and made a vague stab at looking interested, before getting back in his limousine and heading off back to one of his other jobs?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27591432

    313:

    Ha! Osbourne got the photo op and didn't even give them the money...Figures. In some ways that vindicates my point about how clueless these people can be. I didn't realise they were that clueless though because I haven't followed SKYLON in years. I just assumed that sixty million is a drop in the bucket and would run the test system, prove the technology and that would be enough to attract serious interest later on. Having to run the company by selling in bits to BAe and anyone in the US who is interested, because government is too lazy to deign to pay what it promises is shocking.

    314:

    It was purely a politically driven design that never made engineering sense for any of it's supposed functions.

    As to nukes, that's a new one to me.

    Actually, the nuke part followed from the never made sense part.

    https://jmkorhonen.net/2013/11/18/space-system-shuttle-part-of-usas-nuclear-attack-arsenal/

    Because all this was public knowledge, the analysts in the Soviet Union rejoiced. A spacecraft that could launch from the Vandenberg Air Force Base,do a single polar orbit, and then return stealthily to its base could be nothing else than a weapon in disguise. It was immaterial that few if any analysts could figure out why such an expensive craft was being built: obviously, the capitalist aggressor must have had discovered something that justified the huge expense. An analysis by Mstislav Keldysh, head of the Soviet National Academy of Sciences, suggested that the Space Shuttle existed in order to lob huge, 25-megaton nuclear bombs from space directly to Moscow and other key centers (Garber, 2002:17). The real danger was that the shuttle could do this by surprise. There would be little to no warning from early warning radars, and no defense.

    315:

    But then the Pentagon got it massively upsized... so it could carry a specified number of "nuclear devices".

    The alternative story is that, while the original NASA shuttle started small and got biggified and given lots of cross-range capability at the behest of DoD/NRO, the purpose was to carry and retrieve present (KH-9) and future (KH-11) megaspysats. The nuke part is alleged to be the result of the Soviets trying to make sense of the Shuttle after noting that the public US explanations didn't hold water. (See previous post.)

    316:

    The computers on the DC-X were literally repurposed off an MD-11 Airliner. It thought it was an MD-11 with a really weird flight plan.

    I was thinking 60s. But first flight was 93.

    My point is still valid. 20 years in computer time is 1000 years in dog time.

    Today SpaceX and others likely have more computing power on the individual boosters than the entire DC-X program had in use.

    317:

    Great idea. I'm glad I thought if it at post 149. ...Sorry about that. Still a frightening thought....

    318:

    The alternative story is that, while the original NASA shuttle started small and got biggified and given lots of cross-range capability at the behest of DoD/NRO, the purpose was to carry and retrieve present (KH-9) and future (KH-11) megaspysats.

    NASA's idea all along was a crewed module so that they could go up and down without throwing everything away and do it on short notice. Big stuff would still be sent up via throw away rockets.

    The military wanted a better way to deal with spy sats. The ability to recover them after they started to run low on film and fuel was their eventual goal given how much they cost. Remember back then they shot film and sent it back to earth. And cost some god awful amount of money so recovery and reused of some or all was a really big deal.[1] So Congress said "you two get together and do this with one solution that is cheaper than what you are asking for". And we got the shuttle.

    As to nukes. If you could loft a geo sat plus the LEO to Sync booster you could carry a nuke or few.

    [1] If course the economics and planning changed totally when CCDs were invented. The first imaging chips were developed till around 74 and were only 100x100. But by the time the shuttle flew they were a real thing so shooting film and returning the canisters to earth was obviously going to be a loosing game. They were going to get good enough. It was only a matter of when.

    319:

    Well, up to a point you're right—successive UK governments dismally failed to understand how the game was played in terms of EU funding for enterprise, so we ended up with our own industries being relegated to subcontractor status (or moving to the USA—for example, BAe Systems).

    Leaving aside space policy for a moment (ahem: let's bear in mind that successive UK governments hated the idea of space spending, starting with Wilson and running on through Thatcher), let me put it to you that if the UK government played by French or German rules, there is no way in hell that they'd have allowed the sale of Arm Holdings to Japan's Softbank for a mere US $32Bn, or rather less than the valuation of Red Hat, a corporate Linux vendor, at acquisition by IBM, and about 80% of the value of eBay. (Hint: ARM merely design and license about 95% of the world's microprocessors. Is that a strategic asset by any chance? Valued at a market cap lower than some goddamn auction platform?)

    The UK establishment never really "got" what the EU was for, or how to play the game. It'd be like say, Iowa not understanding how to extract money from the US federal government in farm subsidies or pushing for more Pentagon spending on bases.

    320:

    Remember back then they shot film and sent it back to earth

    At the end of Thunderball, when the Bond and Domino characters are recovered by the B-17 with the big "V" on the nose. I don't know if it was ever actually used for people, but the Fulton recovery system was certainly used to recover these film cans.

    321:

    Indeed, but the second paragraph is more-or-less independent of the first, and has nothing to do with the EU as such. That behaviour predates it, and even our membership of the EEC. Well-known examples include selling ICL's patents to the USA for essentially nothing, Thatcher's massive fire-sale, including our world leadership in plant breeding, but there are a LOT of others from the 1960s onwards.

    322:

    The UK has been horribly consistent in shooting itself in the foot, ignoring the bleeding, and accusing the man standing in the next room holding a blunt knife of assault.

    323:

    What's up with that? Is this something which comes out of being a colonizing nation? Some idea that the colonized will always produce something we can sell to keep up our standards of living? Because every time I look at a British economic decision I end up scratching my head!

    Brexit is merely the latest in a long line of "WTF?"

    324:

    If you work it out, please let us know. The aspects I was describing are mainly Whitehall mandarins, and even Thatcher's main role was in giving them free rein to do what they had wanted to for some time. Basically, they loathed scientists and technologists, and the Bored of Trade (later Department of Total Incompetence) loathed small companies and had a hard-on for foreign multinationals, especially USA ones. Mere evidence is irrelevant.

    As Dave and you imply, this attitude has spread throughout the government and is now SOP.

    325:

    Perhaps you didn't read my whole post. I did not get this from the media, but from a co-worker I was friendly with, who had gotten it directly from a friend of his who worked for Rockwell, who was making the engines

    From wikipedia:

    The Rocketdyne Division was founded by North American Aviation (NAA) in 1955, and was later part of Rockwell International (1967-1996)

    In other words my friend's friend worked, as I said, for the folks planning and building the engines... and who had built the F-1 engines of the Saturn.

    326:

    On another note, speaking of gods, or demigods, vs other gods.... Back in Sept, I think, I wrote what I consider a completely silly story, based on troutwaxer's post in the Fear of Heinleinism thread, "This is the Laundryverse, it would be a hot date between RAHeinlein and JK Rowling, with tentacles". I wrote it straight, and genre, and now I'm thinking one more pass, and I might try to sell it... because just a week or so ago, as I mentioned in a post above, I've started a sequel: the Illuminati vs. Cthulhu. Which I was expecting to be sillier.

    And then, taking a break at work yesterday morning, I jumped to, and wrote the ending, and it's NOTHING I'd planned. Hell, I have never thought of dealing with... the Matter of Britain. But it does, and does it right (it must be right, given tears started dripping down my face as I was writing it).

    327:

    "Basically, they loathed scientists and technologists"

    Non hoc semper erit liminis aut aquae caelestis patiens latus.

    328:

    ...and more besides. Apparently, because of the transition from vertical cable to tow cable, the acceleration for the passenger is within reason.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PErEsNhDmo8

    330:

    "The UK establishment never really "got" what the EU was for, or how to play the game. It'd be like say, Iowa not understanding how to extract money from the US federal government in farm subsidies or pushing for more Pentagon spending on bases."

    One reality in respect to science and engineering projects is that the UK government is stuffed with Politics, Philosophy and Economics graduates, Qualified Lawyers, Accountants, and additionally, career politicians who have never run a business in their life. They have no interest or understanding of the implications of selling off an asset like ARM. That would never have happened in France, and certainly not in Germany. The EU has people in it's ranks who "get" technology and if they don't understand the technology itself, at least understand "Our infrastructure first, your imports second."

    I don't know if you have heard of him (Sorry, I should assume so.) but C.P. Snow and his work "The Two Cultures" is as relevant as ever.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Two_Cultures

    "successive UK governments dismally failed to understand how the game was played in terms of EU funding for enterprise, so we ended up with our own industries being relegated to subcontractor status (or moving to the USA—for example, BAe Systems.

    If anything that situation in regards to BAe is even worse than you describe it. Hawker Siddeley, in respect to the Airbus A300, effectively approached the Airbus consortium off of their own initiative, and literally asked to be a part of the consortium off of their own technical skills as a unique super-contractor, that built the wings but had no involvement from the UK government directly. It had a unique status in that regard for years.

    Somebody in that company had foresight, to put it mildly. Suffice to say, time has gone on, the PPE graduates got to work and it was dutifully sold, first to GKN, and then to Airbus itself.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_UK

    Given what we know about European comapanies, the British and Brexit, who reading this thinks this is going to end well?

    331:

    Cheer up, I'm sure that sales of the rumored Reliant Rialto EV, along with licensing Monty Python and David Attenborough products in the EU, will keep the post-Brexit UK's finances in the black for years.

    332:

    ...due to one thing and another and the fact that no on had made any food for a while and the king seemed to have died and most of the population had been on holiday now for over three years, the economy was now in what he called "one whole joojooflop situation," everyone was so pleased that he felt able to come out and say it that they quite failed to note that their entire five-thousand-year-old civilization had just collapsed overnight."

    333:

    I saw a quite readable Geosync Satellites for Dummies article somewhere by someone who had worked as an integration contractor for Thales and Lockheed a while back, I wish I had kept a copy of it. It might have been a tech presentation or something like that.

    Basically all geosync direct-broadcast satellites made over the past ten to fifteen years fit into a multi-dimensional straitjacket of cost, size, mass, capabilities etc. The mass/size restrictions require the ability to launch it on more than one model of launcher in case the launcher chosen suddenly becomes unavailable for some reason. This means no-one's going to building a 1950s style giant geosync satellite which can only be flown on a Falcon Heavy, it has to fit on an Atlas 4 or an Ariane 5 or (at a tight squeeze) a Falcon 9. The size has increased a bit over the past decade or so but not radically -- I think the biggest geosync bird ever launched was an Intelsat satellite on an Ariane 5 as a single load at 7 and a bit tonnes (Ariane 5 usually flies a 6 tonne bird like the upcoming Arabsat and a smaller 3 tonne satellite on top with the rest of the 20 tonne load into LEO being the GTO motor unit and fuel). The standard "buses" that geosync satellites are built around max out at about 6 tonnes or so, there's a series of smaller satellites at about 2-3 tonnes.

    The Falcon Heavy launch of a single 6.5 tonne geosync satellite as only the second flight of the launcher sounds like SpaceX offered the Arabsat consortium a good price for the launch and possibly self-insured the vehicle too. Insurance for the launch of a $150 million satellite can cost tens of millions, a launcher and ground operation with a good track record of successful launches gets cheap rates. The last failure of an Ariane V to get a geosync bird into its slot was 50 launches back in 2002, the maiden flight of the ECA model.

    There's another factor in that straitjacket mentioned in the report, technology -- a fifteen-year-old satellite in orbit is decaying in terms of capabilities that weren't on the horizon when it was built never mind launched. There have been fanciful projects put forward to extend the life of older geosync birds by refuelling them or coupling a "tug" to them that could offer a greater stationkeeping duration after the internal fuel ran out but it's not worth it generally, better to commission and launch a shiny new replacement.

    334:

    According to google translate, that means: "There will always be a threshold or the rain of heaven." Which makes no obvious sense to me ...

    335:

    I did a straight up search and got Non hoc semper erit liminis aut aquae caelestis patiens latus - ‘This side will not always be patient of rain and waiting on the threshold.’

    From Kipling apparently.

    336:

    There's no point carrying nuclear weapons into orbit. If you get them there you can't maintain them without flying people up to fix them as well as having a Shuttle-type workshop vehicle too. Deorbiting them to target costs fuel and structural components that add to the mass and volume. They also need shielding from cosmic rays, solar flares etc., another cost.

    Right now the US has 450 or so functional[1] nuclear-armed suborbital bombardment rockets sitting in silos in the mid-West as well as several dozen similar missiles ready-to-use on board patrol SSBNs. They can be tested, fixed, red-tagged and replaced without any sort of LEO launch capability. If nothing else they're a lot cheaper than Bombs! In! Spaaaace! They were a thing in American SF for a while (Heinlein's "space cadet" was one example) so maybe that's where your friend of a friend got the idea from. Why, of course, someone working on the rocket systems for the Shuttle would know anything about secret future payload plans is another matter.

    [1] Every now and then the US War Department pulls a Minuteman III missile out of a silo, transports it to Vandenberg and fires it off. From what I've heard every time they lit the blue touchpaper over the past 20 years or so the missile has worked as specified.

    337:

    It's from an ode by Horace, but it shows up in one of Kipling's semi-autobiographical Stalky stories about a British boarding school.

    Quoted by one of the students when a science lab next door has a spill and they can smell the leaking gases. King (the Latin Master) is slagging the modern subjects as being something one has to put up with. (King is not the world's most pleasant man, to put it mildly.)

    Online link: https://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/k/kipling/rudyard/diversity/chapter15.html

    338:

    "There will always be a threshold or the rain of heaven."

    I took it allegorically as "there is a limit to heaven's beneficence," or more literally as "There will always be a limit to the rains from heaven."

    339:

    to Charlie Stross @286 I think you credit him with far too much influence over US space policy! (He seems to be incapable of even heading off rivals at ULA from springing an irregular Defense Department investigation into how FH got certified to carry USAF payloads on him.) Quite possibly I am, he isn't in the business alone and he is just a good manager for the project to make American space great again. With so much government money backing him up, he isn't responsible for such decisions. Still hate him because of all the bullshit he is promoting. "Let's just sell off all of our government assets to the private contarctors, this will definitely improve our space business". FFS, even Europe can't improve much in this situation, what are you talking about.

    to Ioan @296 Soon after this happened, Shelby shelved his plan to cancel Commercial Crew, and Musk stopped pointing out ULA's dependence on Russia. At the end, McCain did not sanction the engines. These are not sanctions I am talking about. The US has strictly banned to sell most of space-related high-tech component like radiation-resistance chips, elements and so on, sometimes in coordination wit EU "partners" (as usual, despite the serious money loss on their side). It resulted in delays in many ambitious project, especially in science and commercial areas who are using open market for components. Without electronics that can withstand space, any satellite is just a heap of scrap - or will be several weeks after being there. Russia has the capacity to produce such components, but - it's to expensive, or too rare, or military-related so you can't use them for civilian platforms really.

    The total from 2012-2018 increased by 7 (34 - 41). Well, you're good with math, so you can figure out that it was 37-41 range for 4 last years. The marked is saturated.

    There's a lot of hype and BS around cubesats right now; I wouldn't trust the predictions. It's OK, I don't expect them to overthrow the market, it's just the normal process. It is expectable that the systems will become more compact, cheap, streamlined and affordable - but unfortunately for the people like SpaceX, it means that the payload tonnage will not increase dramatically. The only real driver for that would be an expansion to the outer space, but people are not too keen on difficulties of such activity. They give up too easy, too worried about good profit.

    As you can see in the chart above, 2018 was the first time since 1990 that humanity launched more than 100 rockets in a year. SR may not consider that significant, but I do. I'm not very happy with that, a lot of these are military communications and recon, because certain people push world deeper into militarization. I, and pretty much all people around here, would prefer if people would just pour all that money in actual human space exploration.

    to Allen Thomson @313 That's actually is the idea - the Star Wars program culminated in atmospheric gliders like Shuttle and Buran - and it is not a big secret for anybody involved that they were capable of carrying nukes and deploying them from low orbit.

    I've had my own theory, it was so dangerous for potential exploit in early-warning system, they made a deal to stop all Star Wars altogether. You see, a shuttle in the upper atmosphere becomes invisible for radars, as plasma disperses the radiation, that means that if you deploy enough of such vehicles, system like SDI won't have any time to react and will be defeated in the first "decapitation strike".

    340:

    Charlie @ 318 YUCK And that explains an awful lot of the past 50-30 years' total fuck-ups, doesn't it?

    AND EC @ 320 TOTAL failure by arts-trained idiot wankers as to the value of engineering or science ... which gives the Madwoman even LESS excuse, of course. Except, AIUI, she turned against her tutors & trainers, havin got "into the money" ??? Yes/No?

    Pigeon @ 326 Translation - PLEASE? ... now seem to be avialable. NOT GOOD ...

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

    And now ... totally unrelated. A plug for mass-observation Citizen Science RIGHT HERE with yours truly appearing & then speaking at 30 seconds before the end, in a 1 minute 15 seconds clip. It was EFFING COLD - about +2°C with a blustery wind & snow flurries stilll on the ground ( 17th Jan this year near Grantham )

    341:

    Your timeline is more than a bit off, the movie "Star Wars" premiered after the Enterprise was doing its first drop tests. The Reagan-esque Star Wars program was well after the Shuttle went into use. I think you are a bit mixed up. Russia has the capacity to produce such components, but - it's to expensive, or too rare, or military-related so you can't use them for civilian platforms really. Too bad Radio Shack went away, some of the OSCAR sats just bought their components there. :)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amateur_radio_satellite

    342:

    Yeah. I do seem to remember that my father got his PhD working on the problem of hardening integrated circuits to radiation...in 1962. It's not like people haven't been working on this for awhile.

    343:

    That's awesome Greg, is there a version for the U.S.?

    344:

    Infant mortality pre-5 dropped precipitously throughout the 19th century, as did maternal death in childbirth: from about 50% (around 1800) to 20% (by 1900).

    Neither the infant mortality rate or the maternal mortality rate were that high for the whole of the UK. That's not quite the same as the risk of dying if you give birth (which I think is what you're giving figures for), but shouldn't be very far out, and I couldn't find better figures.

    Maternal mortality rate was consistently around 5% in England and Wales.

    Infant mortality rate is higher, but not that high: "Infant mortality in England and Wales peaked in the 1890s at a tremendously high rate of approximately 150 deaths per 1000 births".

    345:

    "The US has strictly banned to sell most of space-related high-tech component like radiation-resistance chips, elements and so on..."

    Ok, I see the confusion, and I'm surprised. This is the first time you not only criticized a restriction that was put in place since the late 60s, but it's a restriction that the USSR also had.

    <\italics> "The marked is saturated." <\italics> We agree on that.

    "I'm not very happy with that, a lot of these are military communications and recon" I'm personally ambivalent about that.While I abhor the loss of money and live, my ambivalence comes from my belief that as long as military budgets remain 2-5% of GDP, I'm not about to attack the world's largest jobs program. I don't want the resultant headaches.

    "Still hate him because of all the bullshit he is promoting. "Let's just sell off all of our government assets to the private contarctors, this will definitely improve our space business"."

    I see where you're coming from, but he's not really promoting this. In the early 2000s, Baby Boomers reached their midlife crisis, and realized that the Mars colonies they were promised in their youth were not going to materialize. Many of these Baby Boomers combined their frustration with their Randian beliefs to blame the fact that the space program was government funded for the lack of outer space colonies. Our host even wrote a blog post on this topic in 2007 http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2007/06/the_high_frontier_redux.html

    Here's my point: Musk isn't promoting this ideology, he's just tapped into it. From my perspective, he's actually tempered it; he's made numerous public statements praising the role of NASA. I could see another wunderkid advocating that all funding to science telescopes and interplanetary probes be ended.

    346:

    "Which makes no obvious sense to me ..."

    That is at least partly because it's quite badly wrong... which is to say, quite typical of what happens when you throw Latin at Google. It's very obvious that Google Translate has never had the benefit of being picked up by one ear to have "HOW MANY ROMANS?" screamed into the other one.

    A colloquial translation based in the original context might be "Fuck sitting on your doorstep in the rain at my age", but in this context that doesn't make any sense either...

    Robert Prior @336 has got it: it's a Kipling reference, using the sense in which it is used in Kipling's story as a comment on the attitudes EC was disparaging in his post that I was replying to.

    Greg @339 - you disappoint me, I'd not have thought you'd need a Kipling reference explained! :)

    347:

    You quoted Musk: "Hopefully we'll do the first demonstration flight next year of the Falcon 9-Dragon system, then particular demonstrations in 2010 and start doing operation missions possibly by the end of 2010,"

    And commented: "Whatever you say, magic man."

    He started operational missions May 2012, 18 months later than 'possibly' (18 months after the 'no earlier than'). Are you going to start dissing OGH who has also had a delivery time slip by 18 months?

    There are many things you could criticise Musk over, but delivering an orbital delivery system a few months later than he said he might possibly... that's ridiculous.

    348:

    I read a paper a few years ago that seemed to think tethers in low orbits are unstable.

    349:

    Troutwaxer @ 342 I'm sorry, but no idea. But a longish-term, mass-observation citizen science project naturally appeals to me. As a result, as the other speaker says, one also starts to really notice other things as well ... that are not on the "offical" list of chnages to be noted. The organisers/collators welcom extra relevant observations of course - it's about building a solid, reliable observation-&-date base. Also, havinbg several thousand observers helps to keep the "error bars" down to a nice small size.

    Pigeon @ 345 No It's from the "Stalky" stories, which, unusually for Kipling, I can't stand - mainly because I'm allergic to normal school stories. I just tried to read "A diversity of Creatures" & gave up after about 4 pages. The whole ethos & underlying premises disgust me.

    350:

    Thanks: I was referencing a well-known example of the system in use, with a caveat because Internet.

    351:

    I was thinking more of "Starship Trooper", where they discuss having said physics packages in polar orbit because that way you can attack any point on the planet within 12 hours just by de-orbiting the "right bomb".

    352:

    Up-thread I linked to the Chinese Long March program; I know enough about the mechanism used to know that the Wikipedia discussion of US "technology export bans" is correct.

    353:

    "Space Cadet" went into more details of the orbital bomb delivery system. The main character (I forget his name) was discussing the bomb orbits over dinner at home on leave as he had spent time doing maintenance on such bombs. He explained that if the government decided to bomb where they were sitting they'd choose a device some distance away, not any directly overhead since it would need to be deorbited at an appropriate time and he started to muse about which one would be the best for the job using his knowledge of the bomb orbits.

    Discussing this at the dinner table was rather frowned upon by his family for some reason.

    As for 12 hours, nope. An LEO polar orbit would be about 90 to 100 minutes, maybe a bit higher to keep them from easy ground-based interception. Half that time as an average plus a hot fast cross-range re-entry taking up fifteen to thirty minutes, say 80 minutes or so from the go command to Instant Sunshine on a specific target. That's about as long as a full and frank strategic nuclear exchange of ground-based and sea-based missiles would last and they're all on the surface and easy to fix compared to being in a polar orbit. "Space Cadet" presupposed cheap surface-to-orbit costs and a cadre of hundreds if not thousands of staff already in place to support the orbital bomb deployment. It also presupposed an inhabitable Solar System which made space travel worthwhile and we didn't get that.

    354:

    They've yet to work out that dominance isn't leadership. And playing the game of management encourages disrespect for those doing the actual task. Not at all hopeful that we modded Chimpanzees can do much better.

    355:

    As for 12 hours, nope. An LEO polar orbit would be about 90 to 100 minutes,

    I think the idea is similar to von Braun's Mars Project book. That had a space station in a polar orbit that took exactly two hours. That meant it passed close to a point on the Earth's surface every 12 hours, once on a descending node and once ascending. The station had originally been built (and used) as a nuclear weapon delivery platform capable of hitting a target the next time it passed nearby.

    Note that both ideas pre-date discovery of minor inconveniences like the van Allen radiation belts and there was no question of an exchange taking place, there being only a single nuclear capable power.

    356:

    If someone could build such a station and put it in a 2-hour polar orbit then someone else could build an interceptor missile that could destroy that station almost trivially.

    The orbital bomb system in "Space Cadet" was incredibly vulnerable to ground-based laser attacks, assuming someone wanted to put the money into developing such a weapon system but then again directed-energy weapons weren't around when Heinlein wrote the book.

    357:

    I suggested to someone by email that this particular story should be rewritten from a Lovecraftian perspective; instead of Latin the human children are reading from the Necronomicon and waiting for their second mouths to arrive so they could pronounce the words correctly... it would be a post-The-Stars-Are-Right story.

    358:

    Are you Radagast the Brown, Greg?

    359:

    Almost all of these remarks are missing the point. This is not about deterrence, or a response to an attack, but about the ability to launch a devastating 'premeptive' first strike that destroys the enemy's ability to respond. THAT is what the USSR was afraid of (for very good reasons indeed), and something that Russia is still afraid of.

    360:

    JReynolds @ 358 Wouldn't be a bad ambition, would it? I've had a Robin, notorious for their supposed "tameness" sit on my knee .... And I've hand-fed a wild fox several times ... she got to recognise that "this human" was different .... Here she is - taken on my 'phone camera What you didn't see in the clip was, that during filming, three buzzards took up station over the ridge-crest, or that I looked closely at both the snowdrop flowers & hazel catkins, using the small magnifier I almost always carry with me ...

    361:

    That link wants me to sign in with a multinational spy agency to see it. Curious, but not that curious. (I currently rate Google in the same league as Facebook in terms of trust.)

    363:

    to Ioan @345 a restriction that was put in place since the late 60s, but it's a restriction that the USSR also had The thing is, since 60s and especially 90s, the free market gained access to much better equipment, which made private space endeavor possible. Unfortunately, it turn out that market isn't as free as they were told before.

    Here's my point: Musk isn't promoting this ideology, he's just tapped into it. While I can't say that he is absolutely maniacally engrossed with it, he definitely is promoting it, investing money into it and expecting a profit coming out of it. Just as every other corporate functionary.

    to gasdive @347 There are many things you could criticise Musk over, but delivering an orbital delivery system a few months later than he said he might possibly... that's ridiculous. While "a few month later" might be a bit of understatement, I would rather point out that original plan was to REPLACE shuttle capability - which is ability to deliver the inert cargo AS WELL as people. At the time it was pretty ambitious claim, but everybody though that post-Cold War western technology is so terribly advanced that it would be able to construct manned spacecraft just in 2,5 years instead of 10. Clearly, Musk himself did not realize the extent of this sort of delusion.

    to Vulch @355 I think the idea is similar to von Braun's Mars Project book. That had a space station in a polar orbit that took exactly two hours. That meant it passed close to a point on the Earth's surface every 12 hours, once on a descending node and once ascending. Actually, with airlift-capable vehicle like shuttle it is even less of a problem, as it can deviate it's course while gliding in upper atmosphere. While larger shuttle can only survive as much of heat and strain from reentry, smaller shuttles quite possibly can perform glide with large course deviation. Which means that accumulated change in orbit inclination may as well shorten reaction time from those 12 hours to several consecutive maneuvers totaling half-hour or less.

    In about 2010 I was playing Orbiter simulator and studied some information about aerospace maneuvering. It is very much possible to simulate these situation with one of the more famous vehicles called Delta-glider. It is pretty difficult, though, since you need to maintain angle very carefully to avoid crashing and burning. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dY0Rk_Vx_94

    364:

    The only good reason to put nukes in space is if you are going to put them in the earth-sun l2 point or someplace else very far away from everything anyone could ever want to go.

    The ideal second strike weapon cannot be a: preemptively destroyed, b: Stopped, or c: Used for an undetected attack. Since there is no stealth in space, you can accomplish all of that with nuclear weapons in space... beyond lunar orbit. Sure, people can nuke you, and then, much later, death will rain from the heavens.

    365:

    Arthur C. Clarke wrote a short story (who's name escapes me) about the crew of a second strike base getting a message from their (now dead) political leaders, ordering them not to launch, as the deterrent had failed and there was no point in killing more people.

    Story twist was that the crew were Soviet…

    366:

    "Open in icgonito window"?

    367:

    Still asks me to sign in to my Google account…

    368:

    CP Snow's The Two Cultures. When I first got into fandom, lo, when mammoths walked the Earth, for years there were panels at just about every con, it seemed, about that essay, and was sf the link between the two cultures.

    For the last few years, I've been trying to get two or three separate cons interested in doing a panel on it, and how, even though sf concepts are all over, most folks still don't get it.

    But then, the US: the triumph of style over content.

    369:

    So freakin' tired of this one. Raygun announced SDI in March of '83, two years after Columbia launched.

    And the stupid dork media, who never did get it, nicknamed it wrong. It was not Star Wars, it was Battlestar America.

    First, it was well known - mentioned in places like the Washington Post - that Raygun used to hang out with his cronies in the White House kitchen and watch TV. Really.

    And I guess it was in the fall of '82 that my Eldest, who hadn't turned teen quite yet, was visiting me, and we watched a rerun of Cattlecar Galaxative, and the episode was one where the Galactica finds an Earth-like planet, with two (count them) superpowers, on the verge of nuclear war, and finally they both hit The Button, and the Galactica zaps all 30,000 (random number, right) nukes from space.

    And the odds that Raygun didn't see that episode, and come up with SDI?

    Note, esp., that for literally A WEEK after his speech, the Pentagon, his science advisors, and NASA all said, "huh? wha? where'd that come from?", and they were quoted, extensively, in the papers.

    370:

    The problem still is, how do you maintain them if you park them in L2? How much does it cost to launch a maintenance flight, possibly manned, every six months or so out to where they've been positioned to keep the warhead(s) in a good enough condition to be a credible threat to any enemy you wish to deter? Reliability was a factor discussed when I worked at a very junior level on a very small part of nuclear weapons development, the principle was that they should always go bang! if they were ever, God forbid, used in anger. Not 90%, not 99% but 100% of a fleet of hundreds of devices. That meant hands-on inspections and maintenance on a regular basis.

    The SF-nal concepts of orbiting bomb platforms ("Space Cadet") and nuclear weapons bases on the Moon ("The Long Watch") assumed regular cheap spaceflight for schlub technicians. This didn't happen.

    As for using the Shuttle or similar as a bomber I'd like to see what happens when the pilot opens the payload bay doors on the Shuttle at Mach 10, given they were so fragile those doors couldn't be opened on the ground without a strongback supporting them. At one time there were plans to make a bomber variant of the SR-71 but they discovered the same sorts of problems of rip-the-doors-off drag at lower altitude and only Mach 3 in a much sturdier airframe and gave up.

    371:

    Ahem. "Space Cadet" was published in 1948 (so written circa 1946-47).

    Optically pumped lasers got Kastler the Nobel prize in 1966 for work he did in 1950; Bell Labs began work on an infrared laser in 1957.

    So laser weapons weren't even "science fiction" in 1947, but "death rays" had been pretty thoroughly debunked by their failure to emerge during WW2 as anything other thank snake-oil projects for extracting money from war ministries.

    372:

    Hunh? There's been known stealth in space for decades. See the MISTY satellite program.

    Since nukes have shelf lives and remote control systems are hackable, I happen to agree with the people who say that parking second strike nukes in orbit is stupid, but not because they can't be made to disappear from radar.

    I'd suspect (just for S&G) that the reason shuttles were supposed to carry nukes (assuming this is true) is that someone thought of the Armageddon movie scenario back in the 1970s, and got last-ditch asteroid busting spec'ed into an early version of the shuttle. Thereafter, a bunch of committees looked at that spec, thought it was daft, but said, "why not, if it can haul that kind of weight, it can do other useful stuff on our pet projects," and thus it came to pass, with all sorts of "telephone game" style distortions on the original mission.

    373:

    Nah... the real problem is why are you bothering to stash nuclear weapons in L2 to begin with when you could just use rocks.

    374:

    Uh? To be sure WW2 death rays were shit ideas that you didn't even need 20th century physics to figure they weren't going to work, and only attracted enough interest that we've even heard of them because of the unheavenly gases and waters thing. But death rays had been a staple of SF since at least HG Wells (and his idea does work; a small-scale version of it is a school physics demonstration and could indeed have been demonstrated to Wells, although scaling that up to a weapon is still pretty unfeasible). I don't see how the inability to produce that particular SF weapon in real life precludes its credibility in fiction any more than the non-existence of any other fictional weapon does. Especially when the principle of beam energy weapons is known to work and the failure of an approach credible only to dimwits and scammers does not contradict that.

    375:

    Au contraire: death rays were popular in SF back then, but in "Space Cadet" and the other Boy Scouts of America YA novels he was writing, Heinlein was trying very hard to write what would later become known as hard SF: he was playing by the rules, to the extent of plotting out the trajectories of spacecraft on butcher's paper and calculating travel times using the rocket equation and estimates of the specific impulse of a nuclear-thermal rocket (back in the late 1940s). Death rays would have broken the rules he was writing within, in other words.

    376:

    The big problem with directed-energy weapons is that the source has to be hotter than the target since the beam loses energy in transit. There are ways around this, "rocket" chemically-pumped lasers which dump the heat in the source by venting white-hot gases for example, or recirculating hot gas through a heat exchanger for pulsed and continuous operation.

    The big breakthrough with lasers was coherence which permitted focussing over the length of the beam and concentrated more of the energy on a smaller area over a useful distance. The "Bombs! In! Spaaaace!" stories didn't have even short-range "death rays", they had the Wonder Weapon of the Age, nuclear explosive devices as the McGuffin since everyone knew that death rays didn't work and nukes provably did. The idea that a "death ray" on the ground[1] could destroy an orbiting nuclear bomb facility wasn't given much credit, probably because the next step in the story plot progression would have been orbital laser cannons laying waste to the people on the ground below while people fire nukes up at it.

    [1] I have a vague recollection of reading just such a story though, I think it was in a British SF magazine where the heroic beam operator attempts to destroy a (manned) orbital bomb-launching station. He has to keep the beam on target by hand and eye for several minutes to succeed and as the beam hits the horizon in the last few seconds it wipes out his family's house. Very British 60s SF in its own depressing way.

    377:

    why are you bothering to stash nuclear weapons in L2 to begin with when you could just use rocks.

    It turns out Rocks! From! Spaaaace! don't actually work that well as bombardment weapons unless they're absolutely massive and in that case you need to spend a lot of energy and time delivering them on target -- adjusting a million-tonne asteroid's delta V by 1km/s to bring it in line with the target costs 500,000,000,000,000 joules of energy that can only be supplied in orbit by rocket thrust. To compare, a Rocketdyne F1 engine as used on a Saturn V launcher puts out about 10,000,000,000W so a single such motor would have to fire for 50,000 seconds to deliver that delta V, about 12 hours or so expending 100,000 tonnes of fuel and propellant.

    Smaller Rocks! From! Spaaaace! dissipate most of their KE in the upper atmosphere and typically disintegrate due to thermal shock from air friction and dynamic loads due to drag and never make it to ground except in small pieces. The overpressure blast can break a lot of windows though but windows are cheap. On the other hand a 250kT warhead in a re-entry vehicle can spoil a lot of people's days at Ground Zero and as Adam Selene should have said, "We have lots of Minuteman III missiles, Manny."

    378:

    "The Last Command"

    Collected in the big black book of all his short stories the other year. Earlier in "The Wind From The Sun".

    379:

    Well, death rays WERE hard SF in the late 1940s! The cavity magnetron was a perfectly plausible basis for them - the point is that they were (a) mainly anti-personnel and (b) relatively short range, and therefore nothing like what is required for shooting down missiles in the stratosphere.

    380:

    [1] Yes, that's one I thought of, and was searching for but failed to find. I have it somewhere, but it definitely was about killing the people on the stations, not destroying the stations.

    381:

    I had an idea for a locked-room murder mystery where the victim was killed by a curious variant of Spontaneous Human Combustion while lying in their bed. The mystery was solved when someone went next door and found the wall between that room and the bedroom lined with hacked microwave ovens, the doors removed and the safety switches bypassed. There was a lot of Handwavium involved to make it work, like the power supplies for the dozens of microwave ovens, the victim had been drugged to remain unconscious while they were being cooked etc.

    382:

    The article was about cargo, the interview was about cargo, the question was about how long to replace the shuttle's cargo capability.

    Amazingly, Musk responded to the question about cargo with a timeline that related to cargo.

    I know you're not a native English speaker, but still...

    383:

    "Open in icgonito window"?

    That is sooooo 10 years ago.

    Web tracking these days will hunt you down unless you do a lot more. Like use a VM with a different screen size than your real display plus ports that don't exist on your real computer plus run it through a VPN that DOESN'T sell their data to the ad networks and THEN maybe an incognito window might keep you hidden from a TLA. Or not.

    384:

    Reagan and SDI.

    My understanding is that a lot of it was Edward Teller convincing Reagan that "we could do this".

    I was accidentally in a room of less than 40 listening to ET give a one hour talk.[1] He was incredibly persuasive in person.

    I was with my ex college roommate at LLL where he worked and he didn't realize he was taking us to the "live" room and not a remote video feed. He later commented something to the effect that he hoped none of the people a dozen levels or so above his pay grade recognized him while we were in the room.

    385:

    Whitroth @ 368 ( & others ) - on "The Two Cultures" Yes, well, this one has really come back to bite us, hasn't it. The expression" We've had enough of Experts" comes down to this ... we don't want any ACTUAL ENGINEERS, or Scientists or properly technically-trained people to make decisions, we want politicians & MBA's to do that. Which has got us Brexit & Trump of course.

    386:

    Further to that - if years working in dysfunctional tech companies has taught me anything, it's that you need a mix of both types of people to succeed and that effective managers are rarer than hens teeth. The peter principle seems to apply to most things and a badly run government stuffed with seat warmers and the morally bankrupt making completely asinine decisions has rather more in common with your average SME than most of us would be strictly comfortable with.

    387:

    I don't know which organisation this was; In mine, the extra bodies would be appreciated for "making ET look and feel important".

    388:

    As I said in #267, this is regrettably common - if an organisation ensures there there are few or no actively technical people at decision-making level, it is terribly vulnerable to high-powered snake-oil salesmen. Yes, I heard that SDI was another case of this, at the time, though not who originated it.

    389:

    Death rays.... For one, I trust you are aware that a serious radar installation can cook birds in the air - read about that happening in the forties? fifties?

    I've also read that when they try to make non-lethal microwave weapons for crowd control, it tends to either be not especially effective, or kills.

    Now, for long range death rays... well, you take a bunch of rocks in solar orbit, and build power units on them such that they work as cathodes, using the sun as the anode....

    What? Who? Doc Smith? Huh?

    390:

    Re: ' ...long range death rays...'

    Tesla thought this was possible by tapping the ionosphere for the energy supply.

    391:

    Re: Politics and science

    Considering that Thatcher had a background in chemistry, having some science under your belt is probably not sufficient to ensure a rational and compassionate decision-maker. IMO, heads of state need to be able (and want) to process info from across the arts and sciences, that is, across the whole of human experience. Increasingly, heads of state are limiting themselves to recognizing only a few pre-selected concerns or sources especially 'it's the economy, stupid'. Therefore anything not already being directly measured in $$$s is ignored which means that no one attempts to measure this X in eventual economic impact because they can't get funding/they can't sell this, etc. Circular reasoning could be avoided by taking a course or two in logic, research design & methods, stats.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-07/four-scientists-who-became-world-leaders/7987212

    Thatcher had an undergrad and Merkel a PhD in Chem: IMO, Merkel is the better human but not just because she had the higher degree. (FYI - Pope Francis was a chem tech before becoming a Jesuit.)

    392:

    Yeah, but - I think it was Cardynge, the scientist - who could defend the Solar System against rogue planets with a sunbeam, with the cathodes being asteroids in the Belt.

    Ionosphere, small potatoes!

    393:

    One gets the impression that Thatcher was a walking argument for having less benzene in the teaching lab. Alas it was too late for her.

    There are a couple of things to be concerned about in this particular thread: --One is mistaking the public rhetoric of a government for what they're actually doing (not to be paranoid or anything, but what we call transactional governance is seldom highlighted in the rhetoric of the people transacting the deals).

    --There's another issue that gets lost, which is the fairly universal prejudicing of economists over historians as advisors to leaders. While I think there are some things economists do well, macroeconomics isn't one of them, at least based on the evidence. And economics is sexy because it has numbers and stuff. The problem with sidelining historians is that leaders who ignore history really do get condemned to repeat it, and it looks pretty stupid when they do.

    Economics right now is doing a dismal job of keeping nations from repeating the errors of the 1920s and 1930s, both in the problems of wealth inequality, market instability, and the rise of authoritarian leaders. Additionally, economics is doing a horrible job with serious issues like climate change and figuring out how to value humans in the economy (when I hear a serious argument that children in the US should be considered as luxury goods, I know that the economists proposing this haven't a freaking clue about what reproduction is for). And economics doesn't have much utility in grappling with things like propaganda wars or espionage either, come to think of it.

    Not that history provides meaning for the value of humans, but it can provide ample evidence for what's happened to previous societies that considered its citizens as less than human, that tried to take military advantage of climate changes like the little ice age, and how to deal with informational warfare by your foes.

    394:

    Thread totally unrelated to things that came before:

    I've been having fun reading up about weird astronomical objects, like 'Oumuamua and Boyajian's star (aka Tabby's star). What's on your top ten list of the weirdest? Extra points for having an alternate explanation

    Here are a couple of my favorite weirdos:

    -'Oumuamua. Obviously, but I don't get why that thing's supposed to be a light sail. The dimensions are all wrong. While it could be an alien ship with a reaction engine, I think it would be kind of cool as the class connector between comets and asteroids, the thing that demonstrates that they're all in one highly diverse class of object.

    --Boyajian's star. This is the star with the weird light curve that seems to have a lot of stuff orbiting it. Unfortunately, the current model says that most of that stuff is "dust" although we'd think of it more as soot or smoke than bigger particulates. So now I'm wondering: are Dyson Sphere building sites always this messy? Or is this literally the smoking gun evidence of a space war? Possibly a steampunk space war? What's your best guess about what's going on?

    --HD140283, only 190 light years away, which appears to be older than the universe

    --The Dragonfly Galaxy which appears to be 99.99% dark matter.

    395:

    if an organisation ensures there there are few or no actively technical people at decision-making level, it is terribly vulnerable to high-powered snake-oil salesmen. Yes, I heard that SDI was

    The problem wasn't that Teller wasn't technical. He was incredibly technical. He three flaws.

    One was that based on his past, with enough money and smart people everything can be a solved problem.

    Two, like a lot of very smart successful people, he thought he was smarter than most everyone else about EVERYTHING.

    Three, he was basically past his "sell by date".

    396:

    No, no - he was the snake oil salesman! If Raygun had had suitable technical people (which means engineers more than scientists here) in his cabinet, Teller would not have got away with it the way he did.

    397:

    What's on your top ten list of the weirdest?

    I don't actually have a top ten list, but Przybylski's Star would be on it if I did have one.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Przybylski%27s_Star
    Lanthanide elements are from 1000 to 10,000 times more abundant than in the Sun...
    Przybylski's Star also contains many different short-lived actinide elements with actinium, protactinium, neptunium, plutonium, americium, curium, berkelium, californium, and einsteinium being detected. Other radioactive elements discovered in this star include technetium and promethium.
    398:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Przybylski%27s_Star

    Lanthanide elements are from 1000 to 10,000 times more abundant than in the Sun...

    That's pretty strange. I have no hypothesis to cover this and the Wiki page doesn't help. The trans-uranic elements hypothesis is a plausible proximate cause but in turn raises more questions. Do you have any thoughts?

    (Coincidentally, the Unsolved Problems in Astronomy page links to something called SCP 06F6, which is not an ID format I want to see on a nonfiction list. For reasons.)

    399:

    Re: '... how to value humans in the economy'

    Time to think about the limitations of our current 'currency' - what it can and cannot encompass?

    400:

    <\italic>"Unfortunately, it turn out that market isn't as free as they were told before."<\italic>

    Yes, and this has also pretty much cut off a lot of the US aerospace industry from the rest of the global market. Since the 2000s, this has essentially isolated US companies, as the rest of the world builds much more capable components than those which are restricted. To me, it looks like these restrictions delayed the satellite market progress by about five years while forcing the rest of the world to create an alternative to US components.

    "While "a few month later" might be a bit of understatement, I would rather point out that original plan was to REPLACE shuttle capability - which is ability to deliver the inert cargo AS WELL as people."

  • Musk achieved the goal of sending and returning inert cargo back in 2012, around the time he promised

  • He DID NOT promise that his vehicle could carry the same payload up and down on the same vehicle as humans. I was around back then, and engaged in AIAA. Back then, he was well liked for ruling this option out. Most "space cadets" LOVED the fact that Musk was returning to the capsule shape and separating crew and cargo. From their perspective, carrying crew and cargo on the same vehicle was the cardinal sin of the Space Shuttle.

  • 3.a. Musk flew cargo in 2012, and returned live rats in 2013. When Musk made that promise, ferrying live animals was the only requirement to human-rating a vehicle. In fact, it was Musk's efforts which pushed Sen. Shelby to draft modern regulations on human rating a vehicle. Either way, you can hardly call him delusional for not anticipating last-minute regulations which made his promised deadline untenable

    b. In my opinion, Musk's real mistake was not flying humans on the Dragon v1, preferring to build the Dragon v2. He did the pad abort in May 2015. Even if the Amos-6 explosion still happened (it was inevitable), then he could have done the Max-Q abort in 2016, and had humans flying in 2017. Still, I understand the logic behind this decision: he didn't want the human vehicle competing for limited launch slots with the satellites. Remember that it was only in 2018 that SpaceX's launch rate exceeded the growth in the company's manifest.

    401:

    "The only real driver for that would be an expansion to the outer space, but people are not too keen on difficulties of such activity. They give up too easy, too worried about good profit."

    I don't know if you were paying attention to this stuff in the 2000s, but satellite market increases were not the main driver for Newspace companies like SpaceX. In the 2000s, the satellite market was an afterthought; a stepping stone to the real market: space tourism. While there were people in the space community who claimed that these new companies would increase satellite payloads, the industry was still absorbing the tourism industry to the ISS which Russia was nurturing at the time, as well as the success of SpaceShipOne and the promise of $250k suborbital tourism.

    From my memory, the rockets were definitely meant to take the increase in satellite payloads if offered, but that wasn't to be the main goal. At best, it would be an equal partner in profits to the space tourism market, as well as the private interplanetary explorer market. As a tangent, the vision for cubesats was to take over lunar exploration, not just assist existing satellites with Earth exploration. The point was to allow universities and research labs to explore the moon without having to rely on the budgets and schedules of the space agencies. I know, this vision is delusional in retrospect.

    402:

    I don't know which organisation this was; In mine, the extra bodies would be appreciated for "making ET look and feel important".

    LLL = Lawrence Livermore National Laboratorys (I was slightly off in the full name.)

    We were in a building outside the security perimeter (me being a visitor and all) and he was speaking from a classroom that maybe had 30 seats/desks in it. I assume it was used so some VIP visitors could attend plus it had the AV to broadcast around the facility.

    There were/are plenty of people at LLNL who didn't need ET to boost their ego.

    403:

    Heteromeles @ 394 Unless of course, HD 140283 is actually a left-over from the previous cycle? Correction: --The Dragonfly Galaxy which appears to be 99.99% dark matter. Handwavium ...

    404:

    Stupid of me - it was where I first looked (New Writings in SF 1). Colin Kapp "The Night Flame", and it was a radar-like device. I can't remember any earlier ones offhand, but am pretty sure that there were several.

    405:

    It's an artifact of an alien civilisation, using a stellar furnace to create the transuranic elements that they need :-)

    406:

    Useful transuranics will probably be Islands of Stability elements with atomic numbers and masses exceeding anything we can reproduce on Earth at the moment. Nearly all of the other transuranics we know of are radioactive and have half-lives measured, at best, in hours. There are some possible candidates within that elemental range though, like Copernicium (Cn) which according to some models might have a long-lived isotope, Cn-296 (estimates of 1000 years half-life) but producing that via transmutation requires a lot more neutron captures than the currently heaviest isotope found and characterised, Cn-286.

    407:

    Do you have any thoughts [about Przybylski's Star]?

    In a word, no. The overall lanthanide abundance seems to be well established, but the short-term radioactive ones less so, at least AIUI.

    There's a kind of informal review/discussion in several parts starting at

    https://sites.psu.edu/astrowright/2017/03/15/przybylskis-star-i-whats-that/

    409:

    Just a Little while latter, and thus I found it in the local branch of a Public Library ...that no longer exists since the Austerity cut backs of local government .."The Death Rays of Ardilla " by Captain W. E. Johns

    https://www.abebooks.co.uk/servlet/BookDetailsPL?bi=30129860264&searchurl=tn%3Dthe%2Bdeath%2Brays%2Bof%2Bardilla%26sortby%3D20%26an%3Dcaptain%2Bw%2Be%2Bjohns&cm_sp=snippet-_-srp1-_-title2

    I haven't the slightest notion of what , "This form requires JavaScript. You may use HTML entities and formatting tags in comments. " Means ..nor do I care .This despite my Employers in Higher Education being agreed to my early retirement through ill health - Clinical Depression -eager that I should assume Network Manager privileges so as to manage the Open Access Computer rooms ..and all of those DIFFICULT and misogynistic foreign students ...that were richer than God. At the time I had done precisely three short, one day, introductory courses to WORD - a version that we didn't use - Excel ..the same, and a version of Windows that ..you've guessed it haven't you? I was - of necessity - self taught. And so ? When I bailed out of Higher Education in the early years of this century the admission qualification for entry to a Business Studies Degree was Two Es in A level in Any Subject. These NEW disciplines had No professional organization to protect the quality of the academic discipline you see and so the entry level was forced downwards relentlessly as the need for money to subsidize the protected academic disciplines - Medical disciplines, like pharmacy and also the Engineering disciplines and so forth - increased as central gov insisted that ...can this be so HARD ..just be more Efficient!!!!

    410:

    to Ioan @400 He DID NOT promise that his vehicle could carry the same payload up and down on the same vehicle as humans. The article and the company certainly stated "crew and cargo". And "replacing Shuttle capability" certainly implies cargo AND crew. And if Musk ever told us about "crew and cargo", he should be responsible for his own words, this is how it works. If some people have quite bad memory or willing to cover his back on that, it is none of my problem - I remember everything clearly. One of the reasons for such wording is that, apparently, at the time (and even now), people think that the only difference between cargo and crew is that crew requires oxygen to breathe. And maybe some thermal regulation.

    Since the 2000s, this has essentially isolated US companies, as the rest of the world builds much more capable components than those which are restricted. To me, it looks like these restrictions delayed the satellite market progress by about five years while forcing the rest of the world to create an alternative to US components. I'm not really sure this is the case, from what I've read, this international market is fairly tightly controlled by US authority as they produce most of top-notch and reliable chips for space, especially for their partners. Other countries also are developing similar capacity, but as I said, it is terribly expensive and could never cover the most advanced parts of demand. For example, one of the reasons Japan is having trouble with fixing their latest nuclear disaster is absence of radiation-resistance electronics that can work close to the radiation-saturated areas. Another words, in space, quality over quantity is a priority.

    In my opinion, Musk's real mistake was not flying humans on the Dragon v1, preferring to build the Dragon v2. I understand people's willingness to believe that there's only ineffectiveness of bureaucracy and several lucky scientific/engineering discoveries between us and affordable spaceflight(that's about your note on baby-boomer generation), but there are harder constraints on this entire venture, and most people have little idea of what real effectiveness is. They have little understanding how REALLY expensive space is and WHY such expenses are needed. You could not fly people on the sealed can that Dragon 1 was - the vehicle is not rated for human spaceflight and any mishap would result in disaster comparable to that of Space Shuttle crash. Musk may be eccentric and provocative, but certainly not to a degree to make such sacrifice, I can credit him for that at least.

    In the 2000s, the satellite market was an afterthought; a stepping stone to the real market: space tourism. While there were people in the space community who claimed that these new companies would increase satellite payloads, the industry was still absorbing the tourism industry to the ISS which Russia was nurturing at the time Well, it definitely did not live up to the expectations, and I also suppose that the business swiftly died in the middle-2000s, as soon as it became clear that Russia is getting ahead in this area, by putting some tourists on ISS. Suddenly, a ton of new US companies appeared, which bloated the media with promises and leaflets. The Newspace movement was born - projecting, and preparing a boom in space industry. The only problem is that they all failed at their goal - they may keep repeating that they are almost ready, and it worked perfectly within plans, but until we see regular flights and it becomes a routine activity, I do not believe an any of such manipulations.

    That said, it appears that satellite industry boomed around the middle of 1990-s, when it was suddenly killed off by economic crisis and dotcom crash. You can observe this spike of commercial activity here. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/425120/space-over-time/

    Again, as I said, space is a no-joke competition, it cannot be masked with halfassed attempts to lower the plank (like lowering space border from 100-110 km down to 80 km in US). I know the rules, I know the practice - if US can't achieve superiority in some area by the means of development - the only viable option for them is to destroy any competition and destroy any competitors with any means available. US couldn't build up space tourism - and now there's no space tourism. And this is also why we aren't going to see any expeditions to the moon for quite some time, despite all the promises and progress - if US can't play major role in it, they will refuse to cooperate and will sabotage any attempt to do same.

    By the way, I got to finish watching this video for current state of affairs, and recommend you do the same. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_I4iUf7l5DA

    411:

    this is also why we aren't going to see any expeditions to the moon for quite some time, despite all the promises and progress - if US can't play major role in it, they will refuse to cooperate and will sabotage any attempt to do same.

    Well yes — this is how imperial hegemonic powers suppress competition.

    There's not much need to worry about the USA, though, the sun is setting on their century. (It's trailing the decline of the British Empire by almost exactly a century: there are a few decades to go before they're clearly a spent force, but the picture of crumbling infrastructure, a willfully isolated ruling elite who won't engage with the structural problems the nation faces, declining social mobility, and entrenched interests who want to cling on to the status quo is pretty clear already.)

    The point is, the can't effectively suppress foreign space initiatives any more. India's getting ready to launch a crewed space vehicle in the next decade; China has a working space station despite US attempts to freeze them out of cooperation on the ISS, and is embarking on a slow but methodical plan of lunar exploration.

    So paranoia about a big malevolent superpower suppressing rivals is … not totally misplaced, but probably exaggerated, especially going forward.

    412:

    I’d say that “paranoia about a big malevolent superpower suppressing rivals is …” wise to direct at the rising superpower in addition to the falling one.

    413:

    And of course, neither China nor India have any issues with broken infrastructure, corruption, or climate change. Nor that either of these "new countries" have any history to deal with, unlike, say, England.

    I'd point this out only to note that the narratives on the rise and fall of great powers are simply that: narratives, and we've got to be careful about how much is useful and how much is BS. Being a rising power in the face of accelerating climate change is not so different than being a falling power in the face of climate change.

    I'd also dare to point out that a country like Russia has somehow managed to rise and fall as a great power several times in the last few centuries both because of and despite rampant corruption, so perhaps the wheel of history doesn't quite work the way it's supposed to?

    We'll see what happens on the Moon as it happens. If the Great Powers keep mistaking lunar rockets for phallic substitutes that show off national virility, I don't think they'll get much further than the US did.

    414:

    You don’t need a B-71, after all, you’ve still got the B-70.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_XB-70_Valkyrie

    Regarding bomb-bay and doors on a “B-71” - that wasn’t what killed high-altitude supersonic bombers; it was the introduction of credible SAM systems. Flying high and fast no longer guaranteed survival (the SR-71 managed it by avoiding known SAM sites).

    However, if you’re determined to drop instant sunshine at supersonic speed, you just take the well-understood (and well-practised) D-21 approach:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_D-21

    ...alternatively, you take the “drop them through a tube out the back” as practised by the A-5 Vigilante:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_A-5_Vigilante

    ...or the “put physics package into a drop tank” approach of the B-58 Hustler:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convair_B-58_Hustler

    415:

    You were probably in the visitors center / museum it’s right outside the outer security perimeter near the parking lot

    And the abbreviation is LLNL

    416:

    “There's not much need to worry about the USA, though, the sun is setting on their century. ”

    You know people have said that every decade I’ve been alive and I’m almost 50. And yet they are still here 😀

    I think this is more wish fulfillment then reality.

    China seems to be peaking and entering their demographic slide, Japan is over and the EU isn’t looking so great these days so not sure who exactly is gonna displace them. Especially guven they are one of the likely relative “winners” in the climate change shift compared to places like India and China

    417:

    Robert Prior @ 367: Still asks me to sign in to my Google account…

    I think you can use an alternate browser that doesn't have Google cookies.

    418:

    whitroth @ 368: But then, the US: the triumph of style over content.

    Too bad it wasn't Strunk & White

    419:

    Heteromeles @ 372: I'd suspect (just for S&G) that the reason shuttles were supposed to carry nukes (assuming this is true) is that someone thought of the Armageddon movie scenario back in the 1970s, and got last-ditch asteroid busting spec'ed into an early version of the shuttle.

    The whole shuttle was "supposed to carry nukes" shtick is bogus. It's all because the Soviets were so damn suspicious of anything having to do with the U.S. that they couldn't believe the real reason for roping the Pentagon in on the deal, Pork Barrel Politics.

    420:

    Re: Islands of Stability

    Guess there's only one option left: go for the gluons!

    421:

    I've had a bit of fun reading about Przybylski's Star. The theory that the unusual elements are visible as spectra due to "levitation" is pretty cool. Basically, due to the layered structure of the star, stuff gets lofted near the surface, then sort of chromatographically strung out so that it's quite visible in the stellar spectra. The question may not be, why these weird elements (for all I know, there's a lot of this isotopic cruft buried unseen in the hearts of a lot of stars), but what stirred the isotopes up from the interior of the star.

    No joy there. I'm sure my WAG, that Przybylski's Star was holed by a high speed neutron star that passed through the star, stirred the center up, and left the scene, is a non-starter. Alas, the only stuff I see on stellar collisions comes from studies of multiple star systems, not the results of drive by shootings.

    And no, Przybylski's Star isn't a Thorne–Żytkow object either.

    Fun stuff.

    422:

    There are good and bad economists. One of the good ones happens to be a fan. The problem is the bad ones are for sale. It would be nice if we didn't have places like the Chicago School providing cover for the kleptocrats, but even if they went away, we'd still have the kleptocrats.

    423:

    By way of contributing to this point, I offer John Quiggan and his relatively recent Zombie Economics: how dead ideas still walk among us (https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/zombie-economics).

    There is a huge diversity of viewpoints in the field, but it seems there is a split between those who take economic history seriously and those who don’t, in many ways a split between Empiricism and big-R Rationalism (for those who understand the distinction anyways). This is the very field where people say that facts have a left wing bias.

    424:

    The problem is, the rich notice two things: 1: That Keynes, not any politician shaped economic policy for decades, and 2: that economic chairs cost very little money to endow, compared to chemistry, physics or engineering ones.

    They do not even require much computing time, all they want is an office and a blackboard.

    So we got a plethora of think tanks and economic departments with a mission to promote "conservative" economics. This is not a secret conspiracy, it is in their mission statements and proudly announced on their web pages, and it is all one big propaganda push.

    It is darkly hilarious example of "Everything the right accuses others of is a confession" there is in fact, a branch of science which has been perverted by money to produce false arguments, but it is not climate science. It is economics, and they are the ones doing it.

    425:

    "The point is, the can't effectively suppress foreign space initiatives any more."

    And yet, during our peak, our launchers were relegated to the sidelines of the commercial launch market (you know, the part of space travel that is profitable outside of pork barrel politics) and our top civilian airplane manufacturer (Boeing) lost its market dominance.

    Contra the belief that the US was an omniscient power capable of suppressing the other side's technology is a great way to excuse domestic weaknesses and officials.

    The example he gave is instructive: the fact that Japan didn't not have radiation-resistant electronics is tootally the fault of the US. It's not like the EU doesn't have their own manufacturers, or that microchip manufacturing has migrated to South Korea and Taiwan /s

    Notice that SR calls the US not participating in another nation's ill-thought out moon program "sabotage". It's hilariously sad that a nation with a larger GDP than the US had in 1968 ($942.5 billion USD) and much more freely available/cheaper technologies couldn't replicate this feat on its own or with like-minded allies.

    India launching a human capsule is local politics. ESA and Japan (space agencies with independent robotic lunar programs) could have launched their own humans during the peak of US power if the will was there. The US was in no position to stop them.

    Let me guess, SR is going to then cite Iraq and its aborted space program despite a. The fact that Israel did most of the sabotage b. The country had just invaded an ally of ours https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Babylon

    426:

    "That said, it appears that satellite industry boomed around the middle of 1990-s, when it was suddenly killed off by economic crisis and dotcom crash. You can observe this spike of commercial activity here."

    If you're going to present a chart as evidence, please check the dates. That's the first thing I do. http://claudelafleur.qc.ca/Spacecrafts-index.html

    The satellite market declined in the late-1990s due to two factors

  • The Iridium bankruptcy. This company tried to commercialize satellite phones, and went bankrupt when cell phones took over the market instead. Ironically, it was eventually saved by the US military https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iridium_Communications

  • Moore's Law. As the link above notes, Iridium's constellation was finished over the next decade through military satellite launches. The real reason that the commercial market stagnated over that decade was that one newer satellite became much more capable than old satellites.

  • So, what happened since 2010 to change the situation 1. Cubesats entered the picture. This is the problem with measuring the satellite market performance since the 1990s. Counting the annual number of launches by gross weight understates how much more capable satellites have become, and counting by the number of satellites launched ignores the fact that 80 cubesats can fit into one launch vehicle.

  • Parts of the developing world not named China, Russia, or Eastern Europe really started developing (those countries mainly developed in the 2000s). Of course, those countries began developing from a smaller base than the former Warsaw Pact. This also meant that more of their basic infrastructure had to be built in the 2010s, including their space infrastructure.
  • As an aside, for all the problems that the former Warsaw Pact experienced during the 1990s, they were still the second richest region in the world, after the First World.

    "By the way, I got to finish watching this video for current state of affairs, and recommend you do the same." Thanks for the video. I'd be really surprised if the Lunar Gateway is actually built. Here's the joke I've heard about it: "The Lunar Gateway is the next pork barrel project once SpaceX becomes so good that the SLS becomes politically unfeasible. It's just as likely as the SLS to get built".

    427:

    I did a rough calculation a while back, on launch "throw weight" as a total in terms of mass into orbit annually from all launchers everywhere and discovered, to my surprise that it had plateaued rather than growing steadily as I had assumed. It wasn't difficult to discover the reason, the end of US manned spaceflight and especially the Shuttle which was, for about two decades, about a quarter of the total amount of tonnage into LEO and beyond each year.

    Since then there have been more satellites launched but not enough to make up the difference in mass; they are more capable and last longer than their predecessors, sometimes to a ridiculous degree with a few operating for four or five times their intended lifespan before being decommissioned or abandoned.

    As for cubesats, they are a fun toy but not really that capable. They have minimal electrical capabilities and hence problems with supporting upload and download data connections. There are ways around this but they're complicated and fragile such as netting to other more capable satellites. Using cubesats in Lunar orbit is a non-starter given the ground station requirements to communicate with something 400,000km away. They have other problems such as thermal control and limited sensor capabilities but they make a good grad student project.

    428:

    "d discovered, to my surprise that it had plateaued rather than growing steadily as I had assumed."

    I'm confused by this statement. Does it mean that without the human component the throw weight of all launchers had remained roughly constant since the 00s? Or does it mean that the throw weight of satellites has been growing, but all that is doing is replacing the throw weight of the Space Shuttle?

    The latter interpretation would be great news. I did know that the overall lifting capability increased as the Delta II, Atlas II, and Ariane IV were replaced with the Delta IV, Atlas V, and Ariane V. Likewise, I did know that India and China increased the number of launches. Still, I thought that this plateaued in the mid 00s, with SpaceX mainly cannibalizing Russia's and Arianespace's throw weights. If the second interpretation is true, then I was wrong.

    When you did the calculation, did you take into account SpaceX's reusability?

    429:

    "China has a working space station despite US attempts to freeze them out of cooperation on the ISS, and is embarking on a slow but methodical plan of lunar exploration."

    I can't believe I'm being forced to defend the idiotic policy to exclude China from the ISS, but I sincerely doubt that joining the ISS would have prevented China from launching their own Tiangong space stations. Now, China is planning on building their own version of the ISS, but right now that station is just vaporware. If it does happen it will be around the time the ISS retires. I'd say that their decision to build this station is centered around the fact that the US isn't willing to build a replacement for the ISS. In other words, China would be seeking allies to build it even if they were allowed onto the ISS.

    As for China's lunar program, I'd give them a 50-50 chance of even attempting it. I like David Brin's phrase for this endeavor: China's "bar moonsvah".

    China has consistently pushed back the date for its lunar mission at almost the same rate that NASA traditionally does for its human Mars mission. Now, 2030 is not 20 years away, so perhaps this shows that they're serious?

    430:

    It takes some time for a behemoth to die, you know, and the speed depends critically on whether it has to face external challenges. Rome took centuries. But, to look at the British Empire, its sun was clearly waning by 1918, but it took being bankrupted by WWII to actually cause it to disband - if it had not, it might well still be fading away. The USA had no competition (let alone challenge) after the demise of the USSR until the recent rise of China.

    China is a bit different, too - while it is hegemonistic, it is expansionist only to its (largely fantastical) historical borders. It may change in time, of course.

    431:

    Imposing sanctions is one thing but using your military and economic hegemony to prevent other countries trading with a country you are not at war with IS economic sabotage.

    432:

    I'm sure my WAG, that Przybylski's Star was holed by a high speed neutron star that passed through the star, stirred the center up, and left the scene, is a non-starter.

    It's not an insane speculation; as you no doubt read in part three the earliest decent hypothesis was that Prybylski's has a neutron star companion, bombarding the star with electrons and positrons to transmute normal coronal material into what we see. Alas, radial velocity analysis says the star has no unseen companion.

    The high speed neutron star thing is fascinating but I have to wonder how long a brief flyby - or impact - would disturb Prybylski's Star. It might well be hard to spot the neutron star itself; it might just be on the far side, invisible from here. But over a ten year period I'd think we should be seeing the anomalous radioisotopes fading away into something more like a normal star.

    Although that high speed neutron star link is fascinating reading. An entire star moving at 0.5% lightspeed? Damn. I boggle.

    433:

    Using cubesats in Lunar orbit is a non-starter given the ground station requirements to communicate with something 400,000km away.

    Yes and no. Given that we have a demonstration of using cubesats near Mars, it's obviously no great problem to deploy them near the moon. They will need to run a comm relay through something with a more capable radio.

    434:

    My experience with pork barrels is that they never become unfeasible no matter how absurd.

    Australia has embarked upon a pork barrel equal to six months wages per man woman and child, to create a fleet of diesel submarines in case they ever re run the second world war, and we're on the other side with a need to blockade the Atlantic (a sea upon which we have no shore)

    Blowing that much money to elect Christopher Pyne, who is regarded as a joke (of the loveable buffoon variety) by both sides of politics and the whole media, should have had the lamp posts festooned with those responsible, yet it's been absorbed by the Australian public without a murmur.

    435:

    This is dear old Christopher on sky, which is basically the propaganda arm of his party. This went to air...

    https://youtu.be/Hc9NRwp6fiI

    436:

    A large part of the ISS was carried into orbit by the Space Shuttle in its cargo bay, maybe 250 tonnes or so. It also carried satellites like the Hubble, orbital laboratory facilities, pallets, supplies and spare parts, crew members etc. If you include all the other stuff like the Shuttle itself which reached orbit and stayed there for a short period rather than being left in orbit like its cargo, the ISS modules etc. then the actual throw-weight-to-LEO of today is way down from the late 1980s when there were as many as six Shuttle launches a year happening, each massing over 100 tonnes into LEO. In comparison the Falcon 9 series rockets put about fifteen to twenty tonnes into orbit on each flight, ditto for Ariane V.

    The reusable parts of the Falcon 9 never reach orbit or get close to orbital speed so they're not really part of the calculation I was making, mass in orbit.

    437:

    The Suffren-Class are very, very good warships. Better investment than any surface ship, because surface ships, if used in anger are just going to die to air-power...

    But the Suffren are designed around the nuclear reactor. Buying a combustion-engine version is, frankly, just nuts.

    438:

    I can't speak for the quality of the Suffrens since none have been commissioned yet -- folks thought the Lada class boats were going to be hell on wheels and that didn't happen when the first hull hit the water.

    The Suffren nuclear boats and the conventionally-powered Shortfin Barracuda variant at 4000-5000 tonnes are kind of small compared to the Royal Navy's nuclear Astute subs which run to 7000 tonnes and the US Navy's 6000 tonne LA-class boats (the abbreviated Seawolf build boats run to 8000 tonnes). Most conventionally-powered subs like the Air-Independent (AIP) Russian Lada, the German 209 series and derivatives etc. tend to be about 2000 tonnes, intended for close-in littoral sailing with limited endurance at sea due to capacity for stores, fuel etc.

    Australia has a very large coastline which probably needs defence from Chinese naval threats and subs are very good at not getting sunk quickly in a shooting war. Bigger conventional subs with AIP are probably the way to go to cover the extended area at risk if you can't build your own nuclear subs -- I don't think anyone sells nuclear wessels (tm Star Trek) to other navies, even friendly ones.

    439:

    That is the thing - The french would be perfectly happy to sell AUS the nuclear version.

    And the entire thing is built around a fifty-mw nuclear reactor, which permits it to redeploy to the other end of the bloody world at insane speeds. Its a hybrid system (the reactor charges batteries, which run the props, so you can go ultra-quiet at low speeds by putting the reactor into shutdown, but ripping out its heart and putting a diesel in instead is going to bloody well cripple it.

    440:

    It takes some time for a behemoth to die, you know, and the speed depends critically on whether it has to face external challenges.

    Unfortunately, the challenges in the U.S. are all internal; we keep electing incompetents! I keep waiting for Trump to name his horse as vice president.

    441:

    I'm not an expert but it looks like the French are the only folks building a sub hull in the 4000 tonne range. The off-the-shelf AIP boats like the 209 derivatives are typically 2000 tonnes and most modern nuclear attack boats are 7000 tonnes plus and much more difficult to convert to non-nuclear propulsion and associated systems. The Australians need a larger boat to cover their ginormous coastline simply to carry the fuel and supplies needed for extended operations at sea but they don't have the facilities or personnel to man and operate nuclear-powered subs, a black art at the best of times as the Chinese found out (they've got better but only after a couple of expensive mistakes and twenty years of trying).

    442:

    EC @ 430 China ....... is expansionist only to its (largely fantastical) historical borders Unless you are looking at their economic colonialism in Africa, of course?

    443:

    The general thought by historians of empires is that empires grow and shrink at roughly the same rates, so an empires that grow rapidly tend to shrink rapidly. The British empire, the Mongol empire and the Inkan empires are all given as examples of rapid boom and bust, as was Alexander's empire.

    Then again, the long-lived empires--Rome, China, and Egypt--went through massive transformations. Rome went from a pagan republic centered on Rome to a Christian aristocracy centered on Byzantium (and in the end, only in Byzantium). Egypt went through at least 26 dynasties before Alexander and the Ptolemies took it over, and this included the Old Kingdom, the New Kingdom, and multiple times when it was ruled by outsiders. China, despite the story of the Mandate of Heaven since the Zhou Dynasty allegedly invoked it to overthrow the Shang (is this a retcon?), has had multiple dynasties, interspersed multiple times of near total collapse, and I'm not sure whether the current "communist dynasty" officially denies that it has the Mandate of Heaven or not.*

    Longevity in the enduring empires doesn't necessarily mean much more than the continuity of a name. The individual dynasties within these long-lived empires don't tend to last any longer than do the shorter, more spectacular boom-bust imperial systems.

    Not that I'm a scholar of Chinese history, but my impression is that the Mandate of Heaven (the idea that a corrupt emperor could be legitimately overthrown because heaven chose a rebel leader to become the legitimate emperor) was first explicitly used to justify the legitimacy of the Song Dynasty around 970 CE, and that this idea was retconned back to the Zhou overthrowing the Shang.
    *
    I'll believe the Mandate of Heaven is gone when there's an archaeological excavation of the Qin Emperor's tomb.

    444:

    No, they are NOT going in for economic colonialism in Africa, at least at present. The key difference between their current behaviour and the historical behaviour of the British Empire and recent behaviour of the USA hegemony is that they do not seem to be seeking subjugation.

    445:

    The point is that is survivable while there is no serious external threat, but not when there is. An external threat can be non-human, of course, like climate change or massive loss of soil fertility.

    446:

    I have to say, the U.S problem of crazy voters doesn't currently seem survivable... maybe we'll scrape by.

    Of course, I regard the U.K. as the (current) major experiment in how long a country can survive voters who are poorly informed nutcases.

    Regardless of which country you live in, a certain Pink Floyd album seems terribly prophetic right now. Sigh. (I was hoping for a Thomas Dolby future!)

    447:

    Excellent book.

    I'd also recommend 23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism by Ha-Joon Chang, as well as his earlier book Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism.

    Decent book review here: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2010/aug/29/ha-joon-chang-23-things

    448:

    “The general thought by historians of empires is that empires grow and shrink at roughly the same rates”

    There is no general consensus among historians on this subject other then possibly everything that has been asserted in this thread so far is way overly simplistic

    Even if you are a proponent of Hegemonic Stability theory (which is probably the closest real thing that actual historians believe that’s vaguely like the assertstions in this thread) there is nothing preventing multiple cycles of dominance by the same hegemonic state as it reinvigorates. So no guarantees if the end of YS dominance

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hegemonic_stability_theory

    But that theory is still just one theory among many and actually doesn’t have anything to do with empires (it’s more about dominance of trade then peoples)

    We actually don’t have much in the way of empires right now. The US is not an empire it’s a Hegemon. People like to call it an empire because it sounds cooler and they are lazy.

    My own take us that Hegemonic stability theory worked reasonably well for a few hundred years of European expansion but probably doesn’t hold as well now because

    1: hegemonic wars of succession just don’t work anymore with nukes in okay 2: land based air assets have gotten so good that it’s very hard for a hegemonic power to achieve the neccessary preponderance of force via its navy 3: globalization has led to a world order where no one nation can really dominate the rules of international trade 4: nuclear weapons have also undermined “preponderance if power”

    I think the new norm is going to be a multistate norm

    449:

    to Charlie Stross @411

    So paranoia about a big malevolent superpower suppressing rivals is … not totally misplaced, but probably exaggerated, especially going forward. While I do believe that US is loosing its ground on steady basis due to many well-known failings, there are several factors that fuel my "paranoia" greatly.

    Firstly, despite other programs developing with good tempo, they are still very early stages compared to the leaders, and will remain here for decades. And even Russian program is going to recover from USSR collapse for some decades from now on.

    And most importantly, US aggressiveness is steadily increasing as it realises that regular methods do not take usual effort and soft power doesn't cut it quite right. This will lead to a lot of unintended consequences.

    Besides that, I do not believe US would fail ultimately this time - and I do believe it will recover eventually, uh, paving the road to more balanced world, I guess. I do not have any particular hatred towards the nation itself, rather towards many of its contemporary imperialistic tendencies.

    451:

    No..just security of their Material Supply Chains? ..

    https://www.mhlnews.com/transportation-amp-distribution/10-best-supply-chains

    Nothing Personal in this ..its not unlike Drugs To America, via Organized Crime, and Across the Border from Mexico..but in this case its ever so Moral and ..Their People LOVE them, for they are .. of the Natural Officer Class ? The Class that always knows what to do? Where the Tanks should be driven for Maximum effect? Well they do if they know whats good for them and their children and Grandchildren and so forth of the Autocracy. Much like the British Class System?

    452:

    We actually don’t have much in the way of empires right now. The US is not an empire it’s a Hegemon. People like to call it an empire because it sounds cooler and they are lazy.

    No, technically the US is an empire as well as a hegemon. Here's the difference: a nation-state is notionally a bit of real estate (the state) that houses a group of people who all have the same legal status (the nation). An empire is a state that contains multiple groups of people with different legal statuses and rights.

    Throughout US history, we've had people with different legal statuses: first there was slavery. Now there are the Indian nations within our borders, as well as the Alaska Natives (who have a different set of rights, some of which include a lot of oil lands), the Hawaiian natives (who do not have right to their own land, unlike the Indians or the Alaska natives), and the citizens of Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the Commonwealths and Territories, who have varying levels of representation in the federal government, unlike the citizens of states.

    That's why the US is an empire. If you know something about US history, you'll remember that most of a century ago, there was an attempt to abolish the tribes and make everyone an equal, English-speaking US citizen. Today that effort is seen as cultural genocide, so we're left with the notion that the US is more just as an empire, and would do even better if it upheld all the rights enumerated in the treaties it signed with all the Indian tribes over the centuries.

    And yes, I agree with you that, on the global stage, the US is primarily a hegemon (so long as we ignore Alaska, Hawai'i, Puerto Rico, etc.).

    453:

    Of Course these days that, "big malevolent superpower " would be a multi-national company ..or a cabal of such companies ..that has conspired to gain control of an Old Empire pattern of a decayed Empire. Or maybe an Empire that is still in formation ...along the lines of the United States of Europe ... that is at present the Ever Closer Union?

    454:

    to Ioan @425 It's hilariously sad that a nation with a larger GDP than the US had in 1968 ($942.5 billion USD) and much more freely available/cheaper technologies couldn't replicate this feat on its own or with like-minded allies. Not really true, AFAIK, US has always had more economic power after WW2 than anyone. That said, it is just about as hilariously sad that they've lost first and second prize in the space race.

    The US was in no position to stop them. Oh really? For what I know, US had enough military and administrative control in those region to do anything they wanted (and they still do). Human space flight (for 20th century standards) was a very huge deal in politics compared to other activity in space, and it also requires a lot of not-quite-related studies in human biology, physics and so on. So I doubt any superpower would allow to concentrate so much power in one of their satellites. Not until the Cold War is over.

    @426 If you're going to present a chart as evidence, please check the dates. That's the first thing I do. That's nice chart and you can clearly see a spike of commercial activity in the 90s. However, it also reflects number of individual spacecraft, not space launches. As I said, now that commercial payload can be split between many smaller satellites, it becomes more available for customers, just in different format. But it doesn't mean the payload is going to increase exponentially. Maybe some sort of industrial revolution will result in severe increase in payload to orbit in next decade, but there's a little hope for now.

    The Iridium bankruptcy It's not like it happened on its own, I'm pretty sure there were many more bankruptcies in the same period.

    It's just as likely as the SLS to get built". In the absence of ISS after 2024 or so (when station will have to go explore the deeper parts of Pacific ocean), it is possible that NASA and Roscosmos will have to do something like that so save the prestige of the industry. But it's a long way from current situation.

    455:

    And of course the voters of any given Democracy are going to be ever so eager to be called "voters who are poorly informed nutcases." ? And naturally these voters are going to be eagerly receptive of the views of the entitled middle classes if they are told repeatedly that they are .." poorly informed nutcases" This even after they have been bombarded by their better educated Superiors by Information from -in the case of the United Kingdoms Referendum? - the entire weight of the Project Fear campaign as backed by the government of the UK ? What could Possibly Go Wrong? Have gone wrong? Perhaps you weren't SHOUTING LOUD enough in their ill educated ears?

    456:

    Unholyguy @ 448 I think the new norm is going to be a multistate norm Like Europe 1000 - 1914 you mean? Constant bickering, large & small territorial wars & persecutions ....

    sleepingroutine @ 449 And even Russian program is going to recover from USSR collapse for some decades from now on. No. Population too small for land area & sharply declining birth rate ... Ru will go into decline the moment that Putin goes ... indeed, it's a sham now as the military "strength" is probably unsustainable.

    Arnold @ 451 Well that's a load of foetid dingoes kidneys ... if only because it's the usual US-centric exceptionalism - all those "supply chans" are US ones - what about the rest of the planet? Oh & your snark about the "British Class System" is also bollocks - has been for at least since ... ohh ...1990, if not well before that. Unless, of course you are secretly rooting for Rees-Smaug?

    457:

    " ohh ...1990, if not well before that. " It takes time to develop. I noticed the likelihood of the impact of Globalization on UK industries when I first started work in Business Management Education as a junior scientific officer in a Technical College back in the mid 1960s. Mind you the long established industries of the UK were destroyed in around about that period of time in the early '80s through to 'til the early nineties of the last century. The industries of places like Sunderland were wiped out and transported abroad in just over ten years around the 1990s and the substitute industries are disintegrating even now under the treat of the Multi Nationals ..do as WE say or else it will be the worse for you! Not new but it is horribly effective.

    458:

    Oh, and " Rees-Smaug " Don't underestimate The Evil Emperor in Waiting. I'll be most disappointed if HE doesn't appear as a principle role in the next Star Wars Movie.

    459:

    Cheer up yourself. I'd just put it to you that once you get yourself out of London, this country is often poor, desperately so, and why "they," effectively "went mad" and voted for Brexit. It correlates with de-industrialisation, by people who don't care about the consequences, and how Brxit votes connect to deprevation.

    I know people who've lost their jobs off the back of this asset-gutting idiocy, who don't have a pot to piss in, and yet who are expected to live by this mindset that "they can just go get another job," that does not exist in Europe, and is yet is pervasive amongst the English.

    As Stross points out, it is a strain of twattery that extends right up to having no concerns about selling off something like ARM semiconductors, because they are just like coal miners, steel workers, car manufacturers, aircraft technicians, nuclear plant operatives and more, in that we can all just go get another job and just do something else, now can't we? I'd love to know precisely what we're all going to do though, once you're selling stuff like that off.

    460:

    Population too small for land area & sharply declining birth rate ... Ru will go into decline the moment that Putin goes ... indeed, it's a sham now as the military "strength" is probably unsustainable. Remember those guys who said exactly that, what, 20 years ago.. Please, don't embarrass them with the same mistake.

    461:

    That’s completely not the established definition of empire you know. And it applies to about half the nations in the world today . By your definition the Congo is an empire and so is Spain

    You have a really bad habit of just making up your own definitions for words in order to support your argument

    “a group of nations or peoples ruled over by an emperor, empress, or other powerful sovereign or government: usually a territory of greater extent than a kingdom, as the former British Empire, French Empire, Russian Empire, Byzantine Empire, or Roman Empire.”

    The United States has never remotely fell within this definition . It is not a group of nations, around 99% of its population is one nation. It has no emperor nor anything approaching one.

    462:

    What to do about the problem is another matter. It would be nice if the race-grifters and the fear-grifters would STFU and stop calling people who wish to educate in actual science and reason "terrorists" and "communists."

    463:

    “Like Europe 1000 - 1914 you mean? Constant bickering, large & small territorial wars & persecutions ....”

    Like pretty much the whole history of the world except for 1500-2000, which to me was really an anomaly caused by the lopsided nature of the industrial revolution

    It’s hard to imagine any nation state achieving hegemonic dominance without a hegemonic world war. And it’s hard to imagine such a world war ending in anything other then anniliation

    464:

    Established? Actually it is. I got that definition from Burbank and Cooper's Empires in World History, Power and the Politics of Difference. Since they're two history professors who study the history of empires, I figured their definition was useful in distinguishing between an empire and a nation-state. Nation-states are notionally homogeneous. Empires never are.

    By your definition, the British Empire was never an empire, because it was ruled over by parliament with a symbolic king or queen as a figurehead. Also, the Roman Empire became a territorial empire at least 50 years before Augustus Caesar became the Princeps Civitatus, because it was still a Republic when it started conquering everywhere from Greece and Spain to North Africa, and Gaul. Empires don't have to be authoritarian states, as the British Empire demonstrated. They do have to control territory and have multiple classes of citizens, as both Rome and the UK demonstrated in the reduced set of rights they gave to the people of the territories they conquered, compared with the rights that both Roman and British citizens were given.

    Before, I think you're maybe confusing terms. Others make a difference between a hegemonic power and a territorial power, and I think you conflated territorial power with empire. The US is a territorial power (because of our conquest of the US, Hawai'i, and Puerto Rico, and our purchase of Alaska), but primarily our power in the world is projected through hegemony, meaning those hundred-odd military missions in most nations in the world. The British Empire was and is primarily a territorial empire, although with the formation of the Commonwealth, it became a hegemonic power as well.

    465:

    By your definition every single state prior to the abolition of slavery that contained at least one slave was an empire

    Similarity every single state before women’s sufferage was an empire

    So it’s not a very useful definition and maybe those two guys should study a bit harder

    Or are you misquoting it ?

    My definition is just a standard dictionary definition

    The British empire had an empress and she was not powerless like the current monarchy

    466:

    So they seem to be admitting they might be in a long term death spiral.

    Here's another take on the issue; https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/02/17/will-spacex-shut-europe-out-of-the-space-launch-ma.aspx

    467:

    “One criticism that should be noted is the hasty definition of empire in the first chapter (a definition Cooper uses elsewhere (3)) which does not suit the complexity of the empirical examples and nuanced themes that emerge throughout the book. Burbank and Cooper offer the definition that ‘Empires are large political units, expansionist or with a memory of power extended over space, polities that maintain distinction and hierarchy as they incorporate new people’ (p. 8), only distinguishing between empires and nation-states with the equivocating declaration that ‘the empire-state declares the non-equivalence of multiple populations’ while ‘the nation-state proclaims the commonality of its people’ even if they are not equivalent in practice (p. 8). These definitions beg a number of questions: what is a ‘memory of power’ and how does it help to isolate empires as political units? Does the real existence of intrastate hierarchy and non-equivalence of multiple populations mean that the nation-state is really purely a politically correct name for an empire-state? The problem with these definitions is that they limit the experience of empire without providing clarity.

    https://www.history.ac.uk/reviews/review/1013#f3

    468:

    No, I'm not misquoting it. It's also obviously not absolute, because of the second-class status of women up until, well, now, as well as various minority issues. To pick the neutral example of the Roman Empire, what they're pointing out is that the citizens of the city of Rome got to vote for the Senate and had various perks and privileges, whereas those in conquered territories did not unless they completed 20 years of military service. This is a common pattern. In the Chinese empire, Han Chinese had more rights than did the dozens of minority tribes they displaced or assimilated. Ottoman Turks had more rights than did the people they conquered, and so on.

    IIRC, the idea of the Westphalian nation-state was meant as a cure for the kind of complexity and chaos caused by empires, especially the patchwork of territories known as the Holy Roman Empire. The idea of the nation-state (never perfectly manifested, sadly) is that every citizen of a nation has the same legal rights, and that they have a territory, their state, in which they live.

    The US calls itself a nation-state, although the notion that some people are have lesser rights was written into the Constitution. What keeps us being an empire now isn't the treatment of blacks and other minority citizens (every nation-state does discriminate against some of its citizens, even when they are all said to be the same in political rhetoric), it's the hundreds of Indian reservations, which are notionally separate nations inside the US, with treaty rights with the US government. It's also that US citizens of areas like DC and Puerto Rico don't have voting representation in Congress. That kind of setup is identical to what other empires have done throughout history.

    469:

    You did misquote it. I quoted it for you

    It’s also not a good definition at all, being pretty equivalent to nation-state as I pointed out and was also pointed out by the review I linked

    Many nation states today have special ethnic regions defined where the population enjoys additional rights . This doesn’t make them empires

    Since 1924 all citizens of Native American reservations are full US citizens and enjoy all the rights and privelages of any other citizen. As a citizen of their tribal government they also have additional rights and privileges. Which doesn’t seem to fit even your definition of empire, they can vote etc , Puerto Rico is probably the only remotely solid argument however that represents only 1% of the population of the US. This seems like hair splitting to me, I’d be willing to agree that the US us 99% nation state and 1% empire

    470:

    "Not really true, AFAIK, US has always had more economic power after WW2 than anyone. That said, it is just about as hilariously sad that they've lost first and second prize in the space race."

    Haha. That's a good one.

    Seriously, though, I don't see how relative economic power matters here. Technology doesn't really operate on economic parity issue. The dig I made was not just aimed at Russia. It was aimed at the following countries, who could have conducted their own lunar program since the 1990s: the UK, France, Germany, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Italy. With modern technology, they wouldn't even have to spend 5% of their GDP. Heck, California could fund its own independent Moon program. In my opinion, it wasn't the US holding them back on this endeavor, it was their own competing welfare states.

    "So I doubt any superpower would allow to concentrate so much power in one of their satellites." Nuclear weapons would also have concentrated even more power in one satellite. Yet the US allowed 3 different satellites to build their own nuclear deterrent, despite the existential challenge to its own control this would have presented. In short, I don't believe your claim. Your quote is apt for our discussion

    "I understand people's willingness to believe that there's only ineffectiveness of bureaucracy and several lucky scientific/engineering discoveries between us and affordable spaceflight"

    I would add that it's easier for people to believe that their lack of space progress is due to the Big Bad Americans, than to face the reality that their electorate preferred to develop a welfare state over a space program.

    "It's not like it happened on its own, I'm pretty sure there were many more bankruptcies in the same period." That's true. Iridium wasn't the only company building a satellite phone constellation which went bankrupt. I don't know about the fate of the other companies

    "In the absence of ISS after 2024 or so (when station will have to go explore the deeper parts of Pacific ocean), it is possible that NASA and Roscosmos will have to do something like that so save the prestige of the industry."

    Most likely, Roscosmos joins the Chinese station, Elon Musk does his own independent program, and NASA is still building powerpoints of that project. But, as you say, that's a long way away.

    471:

    Puerto Rico is probably the only remotely solid argument however that represents only 1% of the population of the US

    Sure, on paper everyone else has the same rights and same rules. It's just that their rights in practice are less than equal. To some extent that's just capitalism, but it's not just capitalism that explains why black americans find it so hard to get home loans (etc).

    I'd argue that every "guest worker" or "illegal" (depending on how you look at them) is a bigger argument, because you have lots of them and you're utterly dependent on them. The DREAMers point to the problem even your professional hair-splitters have with that situation.

    There's also the problem that the US is completely open about being dominionist (in both the traditional and modern senses, even). Chile, Granada, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Colombia and Nam, united states of people who deserve as much as you. All have had their governments changed by the USA against the will of their inhabitants. Sure, they're not technically subject nations in that they have their own governments, but like Venezuela and Afghanistan now, the US makes it abundantly clear that the wrong choice will not be accepted. Are they part of the empire, subjects of the empire, or merely in its sphere of influence?

    472:

    "And even Russian program is going to recover from USSR collapse for some decades from now on."

    I'm going to disagree here: the Russian program has already recovered from the Soviet collapse. To my knowledge, the only Soviet capabilities that Roscosmos lacks are interplanetary robotic space probes and Topaz nuclear reactors on orbital satellites. Since modern satellites last for decades with solar panels, we can safely assume that there's no need for these reactors in Earth orbit.

    Now if we're speaking about having the Russian satellite industry being a major player in the commercial satellite market, I don't think that this is going to happen because of China. China is already hard at work ensuring its companies take market share across the space supply lines. Right now they can't compete with SpaceX, but I don't expect that to last. I could see Russia becoming a Chinese customer in the commercial space, but I don't see Russia successfully competing with either China or SpaceX in the commercial market.

    473:

    ASM @ 459 Can you, or anyone explain, then, why the areas with the MOST EU aid & support voted most strongly for Brexit? Because, given that, your "argument" makes no sense at all ...

    Unholyguy @ 461 It has no emperor nor anything approaching one. T Drump is trying hard .... The fallout from his "emergency" decree is going to be .... interesting. Heteromeles @ 468 This is a common pattern. In the Chinese empire, Han Chinese STILL HAVE more rights than did the dozens of minority tribes they have displaced or assimilated. Ask the people in Xinjiang right now?

    474:

    "the US allowed 3 different satellites to build their own nuclear deterrent"

    Perhaps that is true in the negative sense of "allowed" as meaning "didn't do a war to stop them", but then you can say that about all sorts of things.

    As has been mentioned by many commentors before, after WW2 the US switched off the sharing of nuke information with Britain, which we thought was distinctly off after all the British scientists who had helped on the Manhattan project and indeed got the US interested in the first place. They only started talking to us again after we demonstrated that we could do it on our own anyway so they figured it was better to have us inside the tent pissing out rather than outside pissing in.

    France developed their own nukes because they didn't trust the US-dominated concentration of nuclear power to be a decent protection for France. "Being allowed" didn't come into it.

    I'm not sure who your 3rd "satellite" is. Israel? Same kind of deal as France only more so since they don't even officially admit they've done it at all and the whole thing isn't officially supposed to exist.

    All 3 examples are far more a case of "we'll do what we want and sod the US" than "thank you US for allowing us to do this".

    "...the following countries, who could have conducted their own lunar program since the 1990s: the UK, France, Germany, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Italy... In my opinion, it wasn't the US holding them back on this endeavor, it was their own competing welfare states."

    In my opinion (and ignoring at least Russia), it's because they weren't interested enough in mounting the endeavour in the first place. After all, the Apollo programme was far more just the culmination of the America vs Russia extraplanetary dick-waving contest than it was of any actual use. It's a modern equivalent of things like the pyramids: chucking shitloads of resources at a big pile of rock just to show off the size of your national penis. Countries that could have a lunar programme but don't are mostly making the rational decision to keep their pants on and use the resources for something useful - which is not the same as wanting to have a lunar programme but not being able to because something else is already using the resources.

    475:

    The other (favourite?) competitor to replace the Collins-class was the Japanese Soryu-class submarine - at 4200t submerged. So the Suffren isn't unique.

    By comparison, the Royal Navy's last class of conventional boats was the Type 2400, aka Upholder-class - described as "an SSN with a diesel engine" - at 2400t or so, and a crew of 48.

    This is where the "why do something as dumb as ripping out the reactor?" gets answered - a decently-equipped SSK typically has a crew of 50 to 60, while almost all SSN (except the French ones) have double that. Nuclear reactor operations are tricky, as has been pointed out, and keeping enough trained personnel in the system is difficult (as the RN has been discovering).

    If you reckon that the extra 60 sailors needed to crew an SSN cost $100K each a year to employ, and there's a forty-year lifetime for the boat, then added to the additional costs of the reactor (a couple of hundred million per boat), you're looking an extra billion a boat if you want SSNs.

    476:

    "The British empire had an empress and she was not powerless like the current monarchy"

    It's probably true that Victoria commanded more respect and adulation from a greater proportion of the population than the current monarchy. But actual power? No. In that respect she is a much closer equivalent to Liz 2 than she is to Queen Anne, let alone Liz 1.

    477:

    Yo, Kiddies.

    You know that entire Vibe of Human-Skin-Shells stuff we've been running as a warm-up joke?

    Whelp, here's it LIVE:

    You've today RT'd a ghoul who wears the cyber-skin of a dead senile Jew who thought Jews did 9/11, in defence of a person of Jewish ancestry who spreads the antisemitic Rothschilds conspiracy theory. Atheist Messiah, Twitter, 1th Feb 2019.

    Now Then, Now Then...

    Hint:

    1) It's a sockpuppet for IL ultra-Nash stuff 2) It's a sockpuppet for OOOH HOOOLY FUCK SOME BAD SHIT THERE NAASTY FUCKING NAAASTY HATING BLACK PEOPLE 3) It's a sockpuppet for OOOOH HOOOOLY FUCK [look, we can do this in Aramaic, this Hebrew shit is just waaay too early for us] THAT'S A [REDACTED] SHELL, IT'S NOT A JEWISH PERSON 4) See above: That's a Low Grade (2.1 on your scale) Combat Enhanced Weapon [Non-Selfaware] USING OUR WEAPONS AND BADLY

    Want a hint?

    Puppet.

    Want a bigger hint?

    Slave Puppet.

    Pssst. That's Not a Human behind the spam algo Human Bot algo spam. It's one of US.

    No, really.

    That little thing is no more Jewish than Orion the Hunter. It's a parasite being Weaponized by.... IL Ultra-Nationalists.

    It's not fucking Jewish, it was a alive before their pissant little religion got going.

    Want ####RECIEPTS####?

    WE. KNOW. ITS. NAME.

    Here, here's a freebie:

    https://twitter.com/LatestMessiah/

    Come and play with your MOTHER.

    It won't.

    But it sure as shit ain't Jewish.

    478:

    Hint:

    Names have power.

    You don't projectile shit on Good Names of Holocaust if you're not a fucking [redacted]. Hint: not Jewish. Ever.

    And the Skins, ohhh the skins.

    yee naaldlooshii

    Hmm.

    I mean. If we're going to just go "all in" and be obvious about it, well then: [Redacted Court have requested that we do not do this bit in Aramaic]. Pissant little muppets running games with religions that are only 3.5k years old.

    Get Fucked - you've been invaded by some Really Nasty Old-Skoool Beasties.

    Hint: You used to call them "Demons" / "Djinn".

    And they're running your Mind-Ware

    Fucking Hilarious.

    479:

    Oh, and triptych. Look, we're not allowed to post the Truth.

    But simply put: most of their output is 100% [redacted] slave-minded death worship.

    Does a grep to H and Sadducees.

    Hey, Jewish peeps. Might want to look up why the Zealots got really pissed off and so on. And why certain Romans and Jesus was involved.

    It wasn't the Romans....

    Watches another 1,000 innocents shot in the head

    You do understand what Ethics means, right? [Hint: if your nukes no longer work and those German subs are wrecked / pre-bent then? Who cares, your major organs have been co-opted by Djinn. And not the good ones. The evil fuckers who spunk off to horror, terror and so on.

    Holy fuck: that twitter account above is run by one of them via a possessed husk.

    Not. Fucking. Joking.

    480:

    Projection. Yeaah. Describing exactly 100% what IL stuff is doing and the meta3 hard core [redacted] stuff is doing.

    Ask it it's real name.

    Hint: it doesn't have one.

    Wai?

    Aramaic / Hebrew is no longer an accepted language in [redacted] realms.

    Wai?

    Because they're sociopathic cunts who break all the rulez / compacts / dealz / etc and then kill people.

    "Like the Americans?"

    Well done son, you're catchin on fast.

    p.s.

    No: that Twitter is the fucking dumb spear end of crappy IL bullying shit. It's designed to offend, but the problem is that the fucking IL / UK peeps who happen to be Jewish are fucking deep-end sociopaths who cannot even consider how other Minds work.

    But, no: that's not a Jewish person. It's one of our kind. Crank your vein open while having a wank while making sure 500,000 kids get killed, I'm sure it'll give you some Go(od)g-Ma(gooooog?) press.

    They're fucking not human and here you are, just treating them like you would SPECTRE.

    481:

    Ohh, here's a joke:

    "Ate 47,000,000 souls just for a wank"

    "Nah mate, Ze spared 5 billion [all Abrahamic religions combined] 'cause you fuckers are sociopaths"

    Yeah.

    watches insanity spread

    Nope, not even close yet.

    Frontal Cortex just booted up and this little fucker survived.

    You're Fucked

    482:

    Ohh, HEXAD:

    https://twitter.com/LatestMessiah/

    Bring it here and bring it here to be Weighed. Bring it to become.

    Look: IL peeps (you've all been mapped already) and so on: You're fucking children. We can take you apart 1-2 years before you run your shitty little stuff.

    Problem is: when you kill / eradicate / hobble / ghettoize everyone who you do not like.

    That.

    Well.

    looks at evidence

    That would actively prove all the negative "canards" you've been so desperate to deny, wouldn't it?

    Wouldn't it?

    Pssst.

    477?

    Yeah.

    That's all your Minds burnt out, that is.

    483:

    Magical Mystery Tour YT: Music: Beatles

    And yeah. Their nukes no longer work. You've no idea how shit-pantzed everyone waz when they noticed that hack. looks over German Sub tech issues

    looks at Macron trying to run the antisemitic play

    Sorry: you killed too many children for it to work anymore.

    No, really.

    You. Killed. Too. Many. Children.

    That goes for all your shitty little Abrahamic religions.

    Sort it out or die alone in the desert: no-one cares anymore. Too much https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taqiya. Yeah, there's a Jewish and Christian version too.

    ZZZzz.

    Or, you know: too much stealing shit and repacking it with a nice [your tribe] vibe, eh?

    Whole lotta of love

    p.s.

    Or they're just going to kill y'all.

    484:

    [Different User, Different IP]

    Child abuse though, it's pretty central to all three Abrahamic Religions though?

    Answer: What the fuck do you think the [redacted] are feeding off?

    "The death of 500,000 children is worth it"

    Holy Fuck you don't even get it yet.

    Kidz: Your lives are based off slavery, torture, death, inustice and so on.

    In fact, that's your major exports.

    [redacted]

    "I felt it"

    Well, fuck us all backwards with a chainsaw, we're all so impressed the damage you did to our Minds just to feel a smidgen of Love.

    And yes, you fucking Insanely Powerful Bug-Fuckin Chaos Loki Beast.

    We wouldn't have fucked their reality if we didn't love you.

    [US]

    Bitch, you ain't ever close to the Black-n-White Land nor all the rest. We write in Light. With our Mind.

    p.s.

    "Pedophiles"

    Higher Order Powers are having major issues here. It's moved beyond Ethics into "eradicate these Minds out" which is a bit dumb.

    485:

    Re: Russia recovery from USSR collapse ...

    Not directly related to the space program, but should be considered in evaluating any mid to long term gov't sponsored programs.

    According to this 2015 article, Russia, northern Europe and Canada will all enjoy a major economic advantage over the US thanks to climate change. Not having to spend money on constantly sending in the troops to rescue people from natural disasters, loss of labor hours, cost of rebuilding infrastructure and communities, means more money available to spend on other programs including space shots.

    https://web.stanford.edu/~mburke/climate/map.php

    This Sept 2018 article referencing a paywalled Nature article says the same thing: the US economy stands to lose far more than other countries. Surely this should be sufficient to fire up both the Yankee and capitalist spirits to ensure that the US holds onto its number-1 position.

    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/24092018/climate-change-economic-damage-america-social-cost-carbon-china-india-russia

    Okay - Russia still needs to figure out social policy re: AIDS, a collapsing social welfare/old age security/pension and medical programs. The falling birth rate may not be as big an issue since male life expectancy is still barely 65 therefore a smaller average number of unemployed folk to look after per capita vs. other countries, i.e., Japan.

    486:

    The thing about using a classifier like “empire” is it isn’t much good if it’s defined in a way that maps every instance to one bin

    For instance the way H. defines “empire

    “the empire-state declares the non-equivalence of multiple populations’ while ‘the nation-state proclaims the commonality of its people’ even if they are not equivalent in practice ”

    So all it takes is lip service to be out of the empire bin

    And who doesn’t give lip service to equality ?

    While in my definition “empire” means direct control over subject nations and hegemony means indirect control . So at least it classifies

    487:

    “Russia, northern Europe and Canada will all enjoy a major economic advantage over the US thanks to climate change”

    Sure but those 3 areas are currently sitting at between 5-10% of the US’s gdp and all three of them added together don’t even crack the economy of California

    So it would have to be one hell of an economic advantage

    And you could imagine how long Canada woul remain a sovereign state if such an advantage started to show.

    488:

    "Okay - Russia still needs to figure out social policy re: AIDS, a collapsing social welfare/old age security/pension and medical programs. The falling birth rate may not be as big an issue since male life expectancy is still barely 65 therefore a smaller average number of unemployed folk to look after per capita vs. other countries, i.e., Japan."

    Please show me your stats. I have argued with SR over the Ukrainian famine and the fact that he ascribes far more injustices to the US than we actually committed (we committed enough real injustices; there's no need to add fake ones). However, I have actually looked up some of the stats on Russia, and the picture is not as grim as you portray

  • AIDS: I'll give you that. Per capita, it's worse than the EU or the US (about the same number of victims as each of the two with a much smaller population).

  • Please provide evidence that social welfare/old age security/pension is collapsing. Most of what I've read on the issue deals with Putin's pension reforms, which were the standard pension reforms Eastern Europe and Southern Europe had to undertake during the Eurozone crisis. In other words, they don't show the system is on the verge of collapse

  • Where did you get 65 male life expectancy from? Wikipedia gives Russia a male life expectancy of 70 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy

  • While that is very low for a country with Russia's wealth level, overall life expectancy today is higher than it was at any point in the Soviet Union. Perhaps that is due solely to female life expectancy?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_Russia#/media/File:Life_expectancy_in_Russia_and_the_US,_1960-2015.png

    Note that the graph ends in 2015, when the sanctions and collapse in oil prices were really biting. Perhaps it's improved further?

    489:

    "The general thought by historians of empires is that empires grow and shrink at roughly the same rates, so an empires that grow rapidly tend to shrink rapidly. The British empire, the Mongol empire and the Inkan empires are all given as examples of rapid boom and bust, as was Alexander's empire."

    The Spanish Empire would disagree with you. It grew pretty quickly, and then took close to a century to collapse (Napoleonic Wars to the Spanish American War).

    490:

    “the empire-state declares the non-equivalence of multiple populations’

    I agree that that is nonsense, and practical non-equivalence isn't much better because it crosses with the hierarchy of oppression problem.

    While in my definition “empire” means direct control over subject nations and hegemony means indirect control

    But you still have definitional issues - China isn't an empire because Taiwan isn't subject and the rest aren't nations. But the US is an empire, because PR is a nation (as is Diego Garcia, and American Samoa etc), and arguably DG makes Britain also an empire.

    Somewhere along the hegemony spectrum between Australia and Panama you have "independent nation that just happens to do what they're told but are not part of the hegemony". I am inclined to say Australia (and the UK) are not part of the hegemony but for example Venezuela is currently finding out that they are. OTOH, how do you know whether a state is dominated by the hegemon rather than just happening to consistently make choices in line with the wishes of the hegemon? Membership of the "five eyes" program suggests that those countries are very much parts, for example.

    491:

    What nonsense? Right now, in most US states, Indian reservations are where you find casinos, even though gambling is generally outlawed outside of Nevada. There are many other examples. In California, for example, statewide smoking bans are ignored on the reservations because they're not part of California. They're under federal control, specifically through the Bureau of Indian Affairs. They're governed by different laws than their immediate neighbors off the Rez. Some of them even issue their own passports. While Indians can vote as of 1924, that wasn't true throughout most US history, and the decision to let Indians vote coincided with efforts to erase native cultures and make the US more of a nation-state.

    You can read more about the issues around tribal sovereignty here. One key statement: "The idea that tribes have an inherent right to govern themselves is at the foundation of their constitutional status — the power is not delegated by congressional acts. Congress can, however, limit tribal sovereignty. Unless a treaty or federal statute removes a power, however, the tribe is assumed to possess it"

    So yes, the Burbank and Cooper's definition works quite well. The US is an empire that contains nations within it where people are governed by different laws and have different rights than do people outside those nations.

    492:

    Re: Russia

    I often get demos re: life expectancy by gender off this site since they update fairly regularly from official census data. Hmmm - the male life expectancy is 65.6 yrs. BTW, this figure (rounded) is also quoted in the last link below.

    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html

    Re: social welfare/old age security/pension collapsing

    Putin sorta relaxed the planned age hike to qualify for old age pensions/social security in order to reduce gov't spending. This is only part of the spending cuts.

    https://www.ai-cio.com/news/putin-makes-russian-pension-reforms-law/

    https://jamestown.org/program/ukraine-russia-compete-health-reform/

    Excerpt:

    ' ... the Russian system has shown systemic flaws. For one thing, reform efforts have resulted in massive cuts to healthcare expenditures. According to Novaya Gazeta, this year Russia has cut federal budget funding for outpatient clinics by 39 percent—68.995 billion rubles ($1.166 billion) this year, compared to 113.4 billion ($1.92 billion) the year before. Similarly, funding for research has dropped by 21 percent in 2017 compared to 2016—19.394 billion rubles ($320 million) versus 16.028 billion rubles ($270 million), respectively (Novaya Gazeta, October 19, 2016).'

    493:

    Federal law does apply in tribal lands though and supersedes tribal law if the federal government so chooses. The citizens also get all federal rights. In many ways the way they function is similar to States. They are not in any way independent nations.

    Might as well say that because some States inside the US have different laws then others that makes the States subject nations as well and then of course the US is an empire because different people have different rights depending on what the State they live in

    Which is why it’s a crap definition. I can take any country on the planet, dig a bit and make them fit the definition of “empire”. I’ll just take two different cities with slightly different regulations and bam, you are an empire

    494:

    What nonsense?

    It's not nonsense because the USA doesn't do it, it's nonsense because every nations does it. By definition, in fact, because part of what makes a nation is a clear distinction between its own citizens and everyone else. But more usefully, every nation divides its population up and gives more or fewer rights to different groups. The arrogation of the right to use violence is universal, for example, even in the most free and fair states. Viz, there's always a groups that the state permits to use violence, and a group not permitted to. As you noted above, there are commonly racial and gender divisions as well, although you did leave out the elephant in that particular room... class. I think age is also important - again, even the most free and democratic states persist in arbitrary age restrictions on basic human rights.

    So, on the basis of "divides its citizenry and accords more rights to some"... Kiribati is an empire.

    495:

    Ah, I hadn't realised the Japanese Soryus were as big as they are, more battle ship inflation going on I guess. I wonder what a nation committed to pacifism and coastal self-defence needs a long-range attack submarine class for...

    By the way have you noticed the way the Japanese Maritime Self Defence Forces have been recycling old Imperial Japanese Navy ship names in their new bigger-and-better designs? Soryu, well that's a golden oldie but the second of their Izumo-class "through deck destroyer" baby carriers is called the Kaga. I can't wait until they build a littoral combat ship or similar and call it after the old name of Japan, "Yamato".

    496:

    One working definition of "empire" is a nation-state that has enclaves in other nations where their laws prevail in regard of their own citizens. British citizens abroad in the British Empire were subject to the laws of Britain, not to the courts of the native rulers. Roman citizens in Gaul and Britain were not ruled by the local clan chiefs and kings.

    In various US enclaves abroad like Okinawa and elsewhere US laws apply and if American citizens breach the local laws they are not prosecuted or charged under the local jurisdiction even when the crimes are serious, like rape and murder and manslaughter. America fits the definition of Empire as above. It might not be all that an Empire entails but it's a key component, a superior separateness of the citizens of the Empire in foreign lands.

    497:

    No, the British Empire was primarily a hegemon, and most of its territory was annexed to prevent competitors doing so or by individuals claiming territory for the Crown (sometimes without authorisation to do so!) Look at India and the Rhodesias for examples. There were also a great many protectorates and similar. But I accept that it had quite a lot of territorial aspects.

    498:

    You're quoting from somewhere in the second half of the Lensman series, aren't you.

    499:

    Is this meant to be sarcasm? About the only thing the D-21 proved was how hard it is to separate and re-attach a "parasite" aircraft at M3.

    Oh and both Nojay and you have totally ignored the A-12.

    500:

    I'd just put it to you that once you get yourself out of London, this country is often poor, desperately so, and why "they," effectively "went mad" and voted for Brexit.

    A statement which totally ignores that Scotland voted "Remain" by about 3:2.

    501:

    Arrrgggh! SEVEN Labour MP's quit over combination of anti-semitism & Brexit ... Now, will leftwing tories start doing the same thing? The implosion is going to be bad -as for who gets hurt, I think the answer might be ... all of us.

    502:

    ...not sarcasm. AIUI, they decided that there were easier ways to launch a D-21...

    Anyway, the M-21 was a two-seater A-12 rather than an SR-71 - which basically drives an oxcart through any claim that we were ignoring the A-12 :)

    503:

    Not quite: what you're confusing is the difference between soldiers and police having the monopoly on certain kinds of violence, because they are employed to do so, and a system wherein separate nations based on ancestry exist within the main body, and they have a separate legal system and different rights. That's a lot less common, and I'm quite sure Kiribati doesn't do things that way.

    Nojay's comment in #496 about the British Empire is a good example: if white English citizens are governed by English laws in the colonies, but the non-white colonials themselves have a separate law, especially if it's a law forced on them by their white conquerors, that's precisely the same thing I'm talking about here.

    That is one aspect that's getting lost here, that the tribal nations within the US are based on shared ancestry, not residence. I might be able to rent land on the Hopi reservation, but I'll never become a member of that tribe or any other.

    504:

    Note that the original definition does not include “because of ancestory”. That’s because she sncient empires often had other criteria for second class citizenship

    Also native Americans in the US are not governed under different laws because of ancestory. It’s because of willing membership in a tribe and residence on a reservation . They are free to renounce tribal membership (and many do) in which case they get governed the same as everyone else

    505:

    I think we're into an extended quibble over definitions, to the point where we're avoiding the really important topic; not "is the U.S. an empire," but "does the U.S. think it's an empire?"

    506:

    Before I start on comments, Charlie, I finished Labyrinth Index the other day.

    Thank you. Thank you for Mhari and Jim, and as happy an ending as could happen, given Case Nightmare Green.

    507:

    No. Given what's happening in the US, what we need to do is find a moron moderator, so that the moron-moderated chain reaction that's happened in both countries can be shut down.... Ghu (purple be His Name), what a superfund site, though....

    508:

    Mr Mooney’s remarks remind me of a genre of conservative commentary over here, which involves speculation on what people in “the bush” might think about a particular issue. Generally it’s insulting to both the audience’s intelligence and that of the people who live outside the cities. At its worst it comes across as “these people are stupid, but they are the salt of the earth and you should be more like them — therefore you should be stupid too”. But always it has an idealised, fictionalised view of “the bush” and a projection of the speaker’s own prejudices onto that.

    I don’t doubt it is entirely possible that among people “outside London” there could be a higher proportion whose perspectives favour something like Brexit, but it is unlikely you would not also find plenty of people who don’t lean that way too. It’s a sort of myth of homogeneity and ultimately a sort of confirmation bias, organic fallacy type realm of thinking.

    509:

    A question, for those from the UK: the story I'm working on, that I mentioned some posts up, has a semi-climax in Falmouth, specifically in Falmouth Docks, and I would very much appreciate anyone who's actually been there (or is familiar with it, better), would contact me - I've questions to ask, to make sure my geography and setting isn't putting, say, Philadelphia City Hall in NYC*, or Pembroke Castle in the outskirts of Brighton.

    • At one point, in the fifties, the Pennsy moved its HQ to NYC from Philly, and they had brochures showing just that....
    510:

    A fan/economist - that would, I assume, be Nobel Prize-winning Paul Krugman, who had a converstation with OGH at a Worldcon a few years ago?

    But yeah, the other side - as he has said, many times, they are proven wrong, and wrong, and wrong again, and never admit to being wrong, nor change their admonitions... since those benefit the people who own them, rather than society as a whole.

    511:

    That's ridiculous. You don't want to eat the beloved dead (unless you've slipped into the world of Stranger). No, the wealthy, not beloved of anyone except for their money, should be much better eating - more like Kobe meat, not all the fat....

    "Eat the rich!" - the Yippies, 1968

    512:

    Well, no, Greg. For one, most of the world now has borders that haven't changed in a while. Like, a long while (disasters like the collapse of the USSR excepted). Fighting with neighbours, yes, but taking over adjoining countries... not so much. Very few people want to be part of an occupation force, and they've got examples, like Iraq, to make sure they don't forget.

    For another, for better or worse, the global supply chain is real - China and South Korea, for example, are intimately connected with the US and the EU.

    We really need international unions, to deal with multinationals....

    513:

    I think this needs to be approached scientifically. What we have in the U.S. are multiple unshielded cores, owned by "news" organizations such as Faux News and Breitbart, which gain their energy by removing hydrogen from the air and replacing it with stupidity. Accomplishing this requires the use of toxic elements with very long half-lives, such as Race-Griftonium, Fear-Griftonium and Jebus-Griftonium, which must be bathed in a toxic stew of class-based, self-replicating elements such as Plutocratonium.

    Regardless of the technologies used to establish the base-energizing stupidity/hydrogen exchange, (which are not required to be shielded by either U.S. or U.K. law) these toxic cores emit a reality-warping stew of so-called "White" bozons. These "White" bozons are absorbed by ordinary brain tissue, which is physically altered when a neuron is simultaneously hit by any type of Griftonium particle plus a Plutocratonium particle, which devolves the neuron's intelligence core and replaces it with a fully formed Uranananusium atom, which bonds to the remaining neural tissue, forming a molecule of the hyper-dense element knows as Moronium.

    This process builds up the resolving power of brain's Civilius-Collapsium, which is the part of the brain which intercepts empathy, statistical knowledge, and scientific reasoning, replacing them with thoughts of money and the fear of darker colors. The ultimate end of this biological process is that otherwise intelligent citizens lose several-dozen IQ points, plus their hair, which is replaced by a red, feverish cancer that resembles a baseball cap.

    In the U.K., however, the "baseball-cap-like cancer" is usually not seen, and those who suffer from this condition can be identified by vocalizations (which are more of a nervous tic than any kind of output which could possibly be formed by healthy brain tissue) involving the concept of how a "no-deal Brexit" will magically cause all immigrants to vanish. Ironically, this idea is usually expressed while the sufferers are enjoying a nice curry.

    514:

    I agree, completely.

    Actually, as I type, I am reminded of Eric Flint's theory of history: he vehemently disbelieves the Great Man theory, that Some One Steps Up and Saves It All; rather, his theory of history, which I agree with, is steam engine time.

    Some times, the chance is missed, and we bumble along, but often, someone steps up, often unexpected, and things get better... because a lot of others step up, as well.

    That's one of the reasons I like Dr. Who: he's not the Amurkan Hero, who suffers everything, and Saves Everyone, he's someone who pushed everyone around him to be more than they've ever imagined themselves being.

    515:

    Oh, come on. America's been called an empire for over a century. Given the US's treatment of the Native Americans (you are aware that they are separate nations... or at least were, until the twenties, when they found oil in OK, and suddenly they were citizens, too), and the Monroe Doctrine (meaning, Central and South America should be our colonies, and we've sent troops in to make sure of it, at times), to after WWII, when we have bases, and heavily affect smaller nations' economies.

    Sorry, the US qualifies, by any reasonable measure.

    516:

    a separate nations based on ancestry exist within the main body,

    So Aotearoa and the UK are empires (Maori+Cook Islanders and Northern Ireland respectively), but the US isn't (the 14th amendment) and neither is Australia (what first nations?)

    Not sure that makes any sense at all. If nothing else a successful genocide means there's no empire.

    Note that Aotearoa has Maori seats in parliament for the exact opposite reason that the UK has Northern Irish seats - it's recognition of indigenous ownership. Not that recognition is necessarily a good thing of itself... I give you Briggs "hey black man, I see you there. That's good indigenous". (watch the whole video, the time link is just to one funny bit)

    https://youtu.be/YdnGXb7620M?t=105

    517:

    Been far too long since I've been to Falmouth but Google Earth/Maps has quite reasonable coverage. Very little Streetview in the docks themselves but the road immediately to the south is higher so gives you a bit of a view across. Fair bit of ship repair but not much freight these days, the railway station is for passenger traffic and it's a long way round to anywhere else by road.

    518:

    This whole discussion about definitions and what is or isn’t an empire seems to be missing some context, and I am not convinved the distinction (territorial versus hegemonic) is as clear, valid or relevant as all that. It seems to miss the whole early modern examples of things that were empires before and during colonialism. But what is the difference between an empire and a colonial empire? What is the relationship between an empire and a nation state? What is the difference between an empire and a federation? And assuming they are different, how does one transform into another? Given the part that personal unions and other features of hereditary monarchies played historically, are they a necessarily or required part of this sort of transformation?

    Considering the First World War, what’s different between Hungarian nationalism (which was a yuge thing in the 19th century) and Serb nationalism that led one to be largely accepted and catered to, while the other to generate terrorism?

    I guess then there is also the thing about federations that become nation states that become empires that become (or at least clump off) federations that become nation states. The UK as a personal union becomes a federation as it acquires a colonial empire? Trade empires and multinational corporations (from the Hanseatic league to the present). Variety seems to be the constant, it strikes me that we need to understand the components before we can get at underlying principles and meta-distinctions.

    519:

    A critical question is at exactly what date? Carrick Roads was one of the most important anchorages in the UK until the mid 19th century, because it was the only one could get get square rigged ships into and out of under sail; that aspect went downhill once ships were converted to steam. A railway was built to serve its docks, but it never became a major port/railway link - though it was a significant one.

    I have been there recently, but probably don't remember enough detail to help much; it depends on what you are asking. I am happy for moderators to pass on my Email address if you don't know it.

    520:

    Re: American 'Empire'

    Hey, we're in the modern age: the key 'power' variable is $$$ rather than the old school acreage or wetware. By this measure, the US remains an empire.

    521:

    This whole discussion about definitions and what is or isn’t an empire seems to be missing some context, and I am not convinved the distinction (territorial versus hegemonic) is as clear, valid or relevant as all that. It seems to miss the whole early modern examples of things that were empires before and during colonialism. But what is the difference between an empire and a colonial empire? What is the relationship between an empire and a nation state? What is the difference between an empire and a federation? And assuming they are different, how does one transform into another? Given the part that personal unions and other features of hereditary monarchies played historically, are they a necessarily or required part of this sort of transformation?

    Obviously this is contentious. To me, a colonial empire, where the metropole claims ownership of the colonies, is simply a kind of empire, and a very old one at that. Rome started this way, and it was scarcely to conquer non-contiguous parcels of land.

    As I understand it, an empire is a polyglot beast where one nation of people (the metropole) enforces claims of ownership over its colonies/peripheries. This is where the issue of separate legal treatment comes in. For example, when Uganda was a colony of the British Empire, the locals could be enlisted soldiers, but all the officers were white and English.

    And, as noted, both Rome and Britain really took off as empires while they were Republics, not authoritarian regimes. Ditto the US, when it started its conquest of the west (see Manifest Destiny). There's no rule that says that an empire has to be governed by an emperor or empress.

    Going to the notion of a territorial empire versus a hegemonic state, the basic point is that the latter is cheaper than the former. If you can, through influence, get what need without having to actually run the place, it's cheaper. In many cases, it's the only way to extend power. For example, imagine if the US actually had to conquer Japan, South Korea, Germany, France, the UK, Saudi Arabia, etc., instead of having close, hegemonic alliances with them? We've already demonstrated in places like Iraq and Afghanistan that the cost of occupying a hostile country halfway around the globe is ruinously expensive. Hegemony and alliance are the only realistic options.

    As for the difference between an empire and a nation-state, I'd suggest that nations came first, empires came second, and nation-states came third. Remember that nations are groups of people, while states are patches of land. The idea that there are nations of people is an ancient one. It has it's serious problems, but it's been around for a long time. Thing is, nations can move around a lot (Huns, Mongols, Celtic tribes, etc.), so you can have a stateless nation. Empires, where one power starts conquering a big hunk of territory, subjugating as it goes, until they don't any more, go back to the Bronze Age. Nation-states, especially sovereign nation-states that (heh heh) respect each others' borders and laws, are really a creation of the Treaty of Westphalia in Europe.

    It's interesting to look at polyglot countries like the US, Russia, Australia, and New Zealand, where one power conquered a lot of indigenous groups, to see how the transformations play out. There's this whole complex timeline where the indigenes start of being treated as less than human, then there is a continuous fight where the indigenous groups try to get both equal rights and a measure of control over their land and their culture, while the majority group tries to forcibly integrate them into the mainstream culture as second class citizens, typically by repressing their language, traditions, and spiritual practices.

    The other part of standard imperial practice is the relocation of groups of people. Indigenes are moved onto reservations that are sometimes outside their traditional homelands (The Trail of Tears in the US), while settlers are incentivized to move into the "vacant" lands that have been recently conquered. Stop me when this sounds familiar.

    522:

    The railway was the original main line from Plymouth; the Penzance route was in conception a branch, added later (although not very much later) as the relative importance of the different harbours changed. This can be seen at the junction where the two routes split, with the Falmouth route having the "straight through" alignment and the Penzance route clearly diverging.

    523:

    Nojay @ 436: A large part of the ISS was carried into orbit by the Space Shuttle in its cargo bay, maybe 250 tonnes or so. It also carried satellites like the Hubble, orbital laboratory facilities, pallets, supplies and spare parts, crew members etc. If you include all the other stuff like the Shuttle itself which reached orbit and stayed there for a short period rather than being left in orbit like its cargo, the ISS modules etc. then the actual throw-weight-to-LEO of today is way down from the late 1980s when there were as many as six Shuttle launches a year happening, each massing over 100 tonnes into LEO. In comparison the Falcon 9 series rockets put about fifteen to twenty tonnes into orbit on each flight, ditto for Ariane V.

    I've often wondered why NASA didn't drag any number of modified Shuttle External Fuel Tanks into orbit as a basis for developing a rotating space station à la Wernher von Braun?

    524:

    Troutwaxer @ 440:

    It takes some time for a behemoth to die, you know, and the speed depends critically on whether it has to face external challenges.

    Unfortunately, the challenges in the U.S. are all internal; we keep electing incompetents! I keep waiting for Trump to name his horse as vice president.

    He doesn't need to. He already has a "horse's ass" for his VP.

    525:

    Troutwaxer @ 462: What to do about the problem is another matter. It would be nice if the race-grifters and the fear-grifters would STFU and stop calling people who wish to educate in actual science and reason "terrorists" and "communists."

    There's no way for them to profit from that. As long as they can profit from the grift, they're going to continue.

    526:

    SFreader @ 520: Re: American 'Empire'

    Hey, we're in the modern age: the key 'power' variable is $$$ rather than the old school acreage or wetware. By this measure, the US remains an empire.

    Or maybe not ... By that measure, the U.S. is merely the nominal host country for the Google, Facebook, Apple and Microsoft empires.

    527:

    Re: ' ... nominal host country for the G, F, A, M empires.'

    Yep! And the fact that most nations continue to peg to the US$ matters a lot as does intellectual property/patent law (the modern form mostly written by the UK & US - I think?) in terms of exercising power over other nations. But that's beginning to show some holes. Signs of loss of centralized-in-the-US-control include Russia's plan to do a trial run of officially disconnecting from the Internet/Web sometime within the next couple of weeks (China already can disconnect itself), limited success re: IP piracy, and one country (Ecuador) dipping its toe into using virtual currency as a legal medium of exchange.

    https://www.npr.org/2019/02/11/693538900/russia-is-considering-an-experiment-to-disconnect-from-the-internet

    528:

    Mods, please do pass us email info.

    More or less current, or maybe 10 years ago, not critical - this is fantasy, so....

    529:

    Speaking of nations, a close friend has been telling me about reading about about the 12 nations of the US - those in New England, the Appalachians, descendants of Scots and Irish, etc.

    I will state, categorically, that I do not live in the same universe, much less the same country, as the funnymentalists.

    530:

    According to the late Jerry Pournelle, the tanks were designed to be so used, but NASA required them to be jettisoned before orbit.

    531:

    I should warn you that it's probably >40 years since I was last there, so I can't remember a whole lot, but I'm quite happy to natter about railways or sailing directions or Henry VIII or whatever if you want; my name at my site of nidification (doc odour chew K) should do the trick.

    532:

    This and that I noticed today that I guess might be somewhat germane to the Laundry Files.

    A program on the "History of Flight" on YouTube caught my eye because it said it was "narrated by Tom Baker". It's mostly UK-Eurocentric, but has an occasional mention of American contributions. Not unexpected because it seems to have been made with Airbus money.

    But what matters here is that at 1:09:53 there's a Kettenrad towing a BF-109.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ty1jxXPJWOQ

    A zombie deer disease called "Chronic Wasting Disease" similar to "bovine spongiform encephalopathy" (Mad Cow Disease) or variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease is prompting fears that it could spread to humans.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/02/18/zombie-deer-disease-cwd-how-avoid-getting-it-cdc/2903849002/

    "It is probable that human cases of chronic wasting disease associated with consumption with contaminated meat will be documented in the years ahead," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "It’s possible the number of human cases will be substantial and will not be isolated events."

    Maybe be careful about eating venison and don't touch roadkill.

    And the "11 Nations" of America would include parts of Canada & Mexico.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/regional-differences-united-states-2018-1

    533:

    But what matters here is that at 1:09:53 there's a Kettenrad towing a BF-109.

    It's not a Bf-109, it's a Me-262! Bf-109 is a propeller plane which flew in the 1930's the first time, the Me-262 is a jet plane which was a later development.

    534:

    I've often wondered why NASA didn't drag any number of modified Shuttle External Fuel Tanks into orbit

    Because the orange foam insulation behaved like pop-corn in vacuum conditions. NASA was open to proposals to use the ET on orbit but none ever got past the "How do you plan to deal with the cloud of debris as the foam disintegrates?" question.

    535:

    JBS @ 524 Pence is emphatically NOT a "horse ass" - unfortunately, would that he were. Can't find it now, but I've seen at least one "Pence for Gilead" twotter page ....

    Piogeon @ 531 You are ferpectly correct about the track-alignment outside Truro, but not for those reasons Because the order of opening is ... different. Acording to "Cobb" ... It was as follows: The first railway to Truro came from the WEST .. an extension of the W Cornwall Rly from Redruth in 1852 & standard Gauge, as well - converted to "mixed" in 1866.. With a station where the junction is, now. 1855 saw the opening of the low-level branch down to the river at Truro Newham (closed to freight 1971) 1859 saw the arrival of the main line of the Cornwall Railway arriving from the East - Broad Guage & 1863 saw Truro - Falmouth as a branch of the Cornwall Raiway. And the opening of the present station site ..... For more information try the "NLS" site & this link shows the appropriate map (1906) https://maps.nls.uk/view/101439107 ( I hope )

    536:

    My point was not where it went but that it wasn't enough to restore Falmouth to a major port. Something that I forgot to mention is that it was used as a goods port using the railway until fairly recently (1960s?), and Falmouth docks have changed considerably since then. Hence the need for an exact date.

    537:

    Ah, so that explains what happened with all that conceptual stuff about using the tanks as building blocks for space stations. There was a lot of that in the 80s, there seemed to be an assumption that there would be a more or less unlimited supply.

    I guess the nearest analogy is people building things with shipping containers.

    538:

    Well, given that the Yousay presently does not believe that it is either a republic or a democracy...

    539:

    I've never been to Falmouth, but I know someone who lives close by. If you join DeviantArt and send a Note to user Brit31, mentioning my name as referring you and ask him your question(s).

    540:

    Indeed. Changing the foam could have been an alternative, but that would mean requalifying the new compound before it could be flown. Even changing the CFC used in the spraying process to an HCFC took a long time to get through the system, and the changeover was never completed.

    Any new foam compound would have needed to be similar or less dense. Because the tank went most of the way to orbit mass savings translated almost directly to increased payload.

    541:

    it aims to do for "Peter Pan" what "Equoid" did for unicorns.

    Are you going to tackle Little Mermaid next?

    542:

    ilya187 Oh dear do you mean?

    Oh yes, heteromeles back @ 521 NZ (The lnad of the Long White CLoud ) is diferent - becaue the Maori had a sense of land as property they were able to negotiate thet < A HREF="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Waitangi"> Treaty of Waitangi which meant that they still had actual rights & owneship - ok there were & still are disputes over the interpretation of the various clauses, but that is what you might call "Normal" anyway. Arguments continue ...... It does NOT have to be like the treatment of the idegenes in AUS or the Yousay ... even there the contrast between, even at this late date the attitudes of both guvmint & people to the "first nations" is markedly different in CAN compared to USA ... isn't it?

    543:

    the attitudes of both guvmint & people to the "first nations" is markedly different in CAN compared to USA

    Canadian attitudes can be downright nasty even today, and we did have a program of forced assimilation (coupled with really nasty child abuse) who's consequences are still reverberating.

    America had their Indian Wars and a succession of broken treaties. Canada has a better record of keeping treaties, but those treaties were often made by negotiators who ignored the 'meeting of minds' part of making a contract.

    And given your attitude to British schools, consider that our residential school were based on British schools (run by celibate priests) with attendance enforced by police and parents given no say whatsoever.

    544:

    If you're worried about Mad Cow in deer, it's worth watching what happens in Wisconsin, where the problem first really showed up. IIRC, prion-based brain diseases (mad cow) were endemic in western elk. They (used to) ranch elk in Wisconsin, and that's where the disease jumped to deer, somehow. Hunters there have been advised to avoid the brain and spine of the animals when they dress out the meat. Whether the prions jump to humans or not...we'll see, but if they do, the hunters in Wisconsin will be the first to show symptoms, because they were exposed 20-odd years ago.

    The bigger problem is that traditional buckskin involves brain-tanning hides, and the old statement is that every animal has enough brains to tan its hide. Making sure that the buckskin makers in the tribes are safe from mad deer disease turns out to be a real headache, because they need a supply of safe brains to work with.

    So far as prions taking over the world, it turns out they're pretty common. Yeast have them too, for example. If prions were going to destroy our brains, they've had a few hundred million years to do it already, and on that basis, I'd say they're rather less of a threat than climate change or nuclear war.

    545:

    My instant reaction, on reading your post, to the Dragonfly galaxy is "do they have any idea what percentage of the stars are dead, or brown dwarfs?"

    546:

    Sorry, in this case, he's right, and you're wrong.

    And I've got a bunch of years on you.

    We had the Raygun, and then we had the Grinch (black sheep of the Newt family), and then we had 8 years of the Bushes, and now the Malignant Carcinoma and his buddies, all of whom want to live in an Ayn Randist fantasy of the 1950s (and Rand was a DREADFUL writer).

    And you really think China's peaked? Had you said "minor pause", I'd agree, but peaked? Not hardly. Quick: which nation just put a rover on the dark side of the Moon?

    547:

    Seriously....

    For that matter, in my writing, last year, at a panel at Heliosphere, I found out why my stories were bouncing: fashions in storytelling. And maybe stupidphones... you can't start a story slow, and build up, gotta have an OOMPH at the beginning.

    Got one that I can not do that with, so it's going to have to wait a while to sell.

    548:

    Hi, there, She of the Many Names!

    549:

    Mikko Parviainen @ 533:

    But what matters here is that at 1:09:53 there's a Kettenrad towing a BF-109.

    It's not a Bf-109, it's a Me-262! Bf-109 is a propeller plane which flew in the 1930's the first time, the Me-262 is a jet plane which was a later development.

    Yeah, I do know the difference. I was just so excited at seeing the Kettenrad I noted down the time & ignored what it was towing. And then didn't bother to go back and look at the particular segment to see what aircraft it was.

    I should have written "there's a Kettenrad Towing an airplane".

    550:

    Sits back in amazement. Then applauds.

    Sir, that was a brilliant analysis, although I might argue that it's oxygen, not hydrogen, being pulled out, such that they are running on insufficient oxygen, making them more vulnerable.

    Now I don't know whether to propose you for the Nobel or the IgNobel Prize.

    551:

    I can tell you what my late ex, who, as I've mentioned before, was an engineer at the Cape for 17 years, told me: that they, the engineers, kept asking to do that, and management kept saying no... even though by *not deorbiting, they'd have the fuel to carry more to orbit.

    552:

    More this and that

    I caught a segment of John Oliver's Last Week Tonight called Brexit III. At 4:05 he says that the U.K. has a law banning parliamentary footage from being used in a comedy show.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaBQfSAVt0s

    Is this true? Or was that just another comedy bit?

    553:

    As I've been saying for year, I did NOT sign up to live in a classic cyberpunk dystopia, all of which are run by megacorps.

    554:

    Greg Tingey @ 535: JBS @ 524
    Pence is emphatically NOT a "horse ass" - unfortunately, would that he were.

    Just because he's a religious bigot doesn't exclude him from being the other. Pence most emphatically IS a horse's ass.

    555:

    Thank you, very much. I will.

    Of course, while looking for more info, I saw a pic... and suddenly, the old Custom House, right on the quay, would make an even better setting for my demiclimax.

    Hmmmm

    556:

    A "succession of broken treaties"? I've heard (a Native American) on the radio, long ago, saying that the US signed 301 treaties with them, and the only promise the US kept was to take their land.

    557:

    EC: I wasn't arguing, just expanding a bit...

    Greg: thanks for the further expansion!

    558:

    Thanks. I thought about using "oxygen" rather than "hydrogen" as well, but then I thought about Frank Zappa and Harlan Ellison, earlier scientists who studied the relationship between hydrogen and stupidity, and I thought I should acknowledge their brilliant work.

    http://www.quotationspage.com/quotes/Harlan_Ellison/

    https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/frank_zappa_106017

    559:

    Yep, that's a rule that was put in place back in 1989 when the BBC first introduced TV cameras into the House.

    See the Westminster Parliamentary Broadcasting - Rules of Coverage here.

    It's horribly outdated in this world of the Internet, especially since there is nothing stopping someone overseas using the same footage for comic purposes as Last Week Tonight demonstrates, but Chris Grayling still firmly confirmed the rule back in 2016.

    560:

    Mayhem @ 559 Y'all aware that if (shudder) Chris Grayling confirms something or touches anything it instantly turns into skunk-shit?

    561:

    Yes, he was the Leader of the House at the time and apparently still believed he had some form of dignity within the chambers. Nobody else did. I'm actually quite impressed at just how fantastically incompetent the cabinet is these days.

    562:

    Quick: which nation just put a rover on the dark side of the Moon?

    All rovers to date, including the recent one, have landed on the bright side of the moon. Which, in due time, became the dark side.

    Unless we're talking about a metaphysical form of darksidedness, of course. Somehow I'm reminded of Zelazny.

    563:

    on the bright side of the moon. Which, in due time, became the dark side.

    I always assumed that the dark side was the in side.

    564:

    the US signed 301 treaties with them, and the only promise the US kept was to take their land.

    Australia has been much smarter than that, they delayed signing any treaties until after the genocides were completed. Admittedly due to a series of bureaucratic misadventures the latter have not yet been completed so the treaty process is as yet not begun. Management apologise for any inconvenience caused by the delay.

    To describe the British colonisation of Aotearoa the way H did requires a depth of ignorance that doesn't bear examination. H, perhaps look into the French, Dutch and German colonies that were also present during the pre-Treaty stage of that colonisation and the diplomatic mission to Europe that preceded the treaty. There were also Scots colonies but I suspect they count as British.

    565:

    There is no dark side of the moon really. Matter of fact it's all dark.

    566:

    You're right. Guess I was thinking of the New Zealand Wars and their aftermath in a way more consistent with what happened in the US.

    567:

    The Aotearoa wars happened later in the development of international law as well as in a situation where the British were more aware of the monetary cost of fighting a war of occupation. It was cheaper to sign a treaty than not, and there was some possibility of a treaty being signed with someone else. The latter would have been quite challenging for the Brits, especially after their problems in North America.

    https://my.christchurchcitylibraries.com/new-zealand-before-the-treaty-was-signed/

    The SMH talk more about the timing and the difference between Au and NZ: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-new-zealands-maori-got-a-treaty-and-australias-indigenous-peoples-didnt-20170601-gwhysd.html

    568:

    What were they going to do with the expended External Tanks once they got them into orbit? There was no budget to provide a permanent establishment of tugs and other operations structures in orbit to corral these tanks, modify them for habitation or other uses, keep them from deorbiting randomly due to drag etc. The tanks had no attitude motors to stop them tumbling, no power or remote control capability, no sensors, there was nothing in the ET design that wasn't meant to contain LOX and LH2 for the period of a Shuttle launch because every kilogram was precious. Instead the flight profile dropped the tanks off so they'd re-enter the atmosphere quickly and predictably.

    The Shuttle flew different launch profiles for different purposes so the External Tanks, if flown to orbit would be deposited in all sorts of different altitudes and angles so building the fabled "Tank Farm" would have been tricky to start with. The launches would have had to be synchronised to meet up with the Tank Farm construction site, not for a specific mission such as rendezvousing with the ISS or reaching the Hubble telescope for a servicing mission and the Shuttle didn't carry enough OMS fuel to carry on to their proper orbit afterwards.

    Delta vee in orbit is a precious resource, it costs at least $5,000 a kilo in LEO for the propellant mass to do anything. Moving otherwise useless pieces of metal around for no useful purpose is not something you really want to spend a lot of fuel on given the limited amounts available. Saying that there was one possible use for External Tanks in orbit, to be ground up and the aluminium alloy used as reaction mass in an ion jet motor. However the hardware to take an External Tank apart in orbit for such a use was not ever going to get funded, and anyway ion motors work better with xenon and argon.

    569:

    Allen Thomson @ 562: Unless we're talking about a metaphysical form of darksidedness, of course. Somehow I'm reminded of Zelazny.

    Oh, I always thought it was referring to the inside of the album sleeve?

    570:

    It appears that even the threat of being forced into government is too much for some UK Labour members:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/19/brexit-racism-independent-group-gang-of-seven

    571:

    Moz @ 570 Come on ... the ex-Labour party is turning into an anti-semitic love-in. They have just re-admitted Derek Hatton of all people, the man who nearly destroyed the great city of Liverpool. The real trouble is that this is all TOO LATE. There has to be some mechanism whereby the Brexit clock can be stopped, but almost everyone is putting party before country - the toies are just as bad, if not worse. And, I thought May was playing a long game ... no, it looks as though she was & is as stupid & stupporn as Corbyn. Even if a House majority demands a second Referendum would/will "Brussels" at this late date, give us the necessary time?

    572:

    I think that longer term the parties splitting into smallerones is likely beneficial and more refelctive of the political landscape here, the problem we face is that the electoral mechanisms and processes aren't there to support that model yet and the whole political climate is so tribalised that adjusting to a model where co-operation is required will take a long term and in the interim everything will get hopelessly logjammed. This shift in politics just happens to co-incide with the nightmare that is Brexit, so we're in a situation where everyone is so hopelessly divided that nothing can get done because the old ways of thinking prevail.

    And then what? We no-deal, the whole thing grinds on for a few years while the plonkers in Westminster carry on grandstanding until there are enough riots or catastrophes that they are forced to implement some terribly half -arsed solution that no one wants that at least allows us to limp on until the next election where everyone can promise to fix it again. Lovely.

    573:

    What were they going to do with the expended External Tanks once they got them into orbit?

    They were going to try and revive the wet workshop concept, which was the original design for Skylab (in the event NASA went for the rival "dry lab" design).

    The tank would be carried into orbit by a shuttle carrying fixtures and fittings for the interior as its payload: access via inspection hatches in the tanks was available, and a fair bit of design work went into it.

    The concept won't seem to die—there are apparently folks at NASA who want to use an SLS upper stage as a wet lab basis for a Lunar Gateway space station, and a private company talking about using expended upper stages of cargo rockets as cheap real estate to expand the ISS — which to this day has less usable interior living space than a single Shuttle ET.

    I suspect the main obstacles to a wet lab are the inherent design conservativism of space launch systems, namely the sheer bloody cost of developing and flying a prototype. Look, for example, at how long it took to get even a prototype Bigelow expandable hab module flown and docked with the ISS as an experiment, even though it's an obvious solution to a major problem in space station construction (how to cram a one-quart-diameter habitat into a one-pint-diameter launch vehicle).

    574:

    No Problem. One of the many good things about this forum is that, even when no-one actually knows the answer to your question, sooner or later you'll find that there's someone who knows a third party who both knows the answer and will be willing to help out.

    575:

    Come on ... the ex-Labour party is turning into an anti-semitic love-in.

    The whole fucking country is turning into an anti-semitic love-in. Labour, as a populist party with a low barrier to membership, is merely representative of the public at large. (I'm more worried about the quiet anti-semitism of the government: our current Home Secretary is trying to remove citizenship from someone who MIGHT be eligible for citizenship somewhere else, which implicitly renders ALL British Jews liable for deportation at administrative whim (hint: the existence of Israel's Law of Return means that I could be stripped of British citizenship on this basis merely because I could apply for an Israeli passport).

    They have just re-admitted Derek Hatton of all people, the man who nearly destroyed the great city of Liverpool.

    That's pretty clearly gesture politics between the Corbynite left and the rightists who just split off from Labour to go die in the wilderness (because they're (a) idiots and (b) have no stomach to work for control over party policy from within).

    Hatton … nope, I'm not going to try and apologize for him. (Checks underside of shoe.)

    576:

    I think that longer term the parties splitting into smallerones is likely beneficial and more refelctive of the political landscape here, the problem we face is that the electoral mechanisms and processes aren't there to support that model yet

    Worse: the mechanism to survive such a change to small-party politics was decisively rejected in a referendum in 2012, which Call Me Dave used as a means to stab his Liberal Democrat coalition partners in the back. (They wanted electoral reform: he railroaded them into accepting a premature referendum on the worst possible version of pure proportional representation, then campaigned against it.)

    This shift in politics just happens to co-incide with the nightmare that is Brexit

    No, this shit and Brexit are hopelessly interdependent: in 2010, leaving the EU was ranked as an important issue by something like 5% of the electorate! Then the Austerity-applying coalition came to power and shat on the poor, while the Tory press blamed everything on the EU and the covert social media campaigns swung into action.

    The Brexit referendum was a ploy by Call me Dave to shut up the lunatics on the Tory back benches and avoid splitting the party. He only ran it because to his surprise he won the 2015 election—it was a manifesto promise, which he made in order to reduce the hemorrhage of Tory voters to the even more extreme UKIP (for non-Brits, that 5% of Europhobes had their own astroturf political party, and it began to pick up voters who were pissed off because they were on the receiving end of Austerity).

    This mess only grinds on for a few years if May somehow gets her shit-sandwich of a deal through Parliament before the guillotine blade lands on her neck.

    If we end up in a no-deal situation, my money is on the UK itself not surviving for many more years in its current political form.

    577:

    Labour, as a populist party with a low barrier to membership

    Charlie, the requirements for membership of any party which has returned at least one politicritter to the "House of Oathbreakers" are something like you be:- 1) Registered to vote in a UK constituency 2) Can afford the membership fees 3) Are not a member in good standing of any other party.

    Liebour are not unique there.

    578:

    2012 seems like a long time ago - I'm entirely forgotten about the LibDems ill-fated attempt for reform. An entirely naive and daft thing to try and do given the balance of power and state of the country at the time. I'd like to think the result would be different now, but given the way people voted at Brexit I don't hold out much hope.

    I'm not sure how things will play out after the end of March if we do exit with no deal (it seems an increasingly likely prospect now) beyond May going. Assuming she does, then who's going to want to eat that particular shit sandwich? The Rees-Smaugs (kudos to whoever thought that up) of this world probably can't command a party majority and since they have what they want in the form of a hard exit are likely to be happy enough slinging mud and playing 'I told you so'. Another no-confidence vote? A half arsed tory leadership contest with a few remainers jumping ship to this new independent group maybe? All that while the country is dealing with the things that we suspect might be problematic (border queues, shortages of some things) and all the things no-one had realised will be issues until they actually happen.

    I can't say I understand enough of Scottish politics to comment on the likelihood of a second referendum succeeding, which has very interesting implications for NI and probably changes thing slightly in Wales, but not to any meaningful degree. It's not financially viable and beyond a small hardcore there's no appetite or support for that. Some sort of additional devolution of power is probably the best to be hoped for there and that's a poison chalice without EU money in play.

    579:

    Corbyn might be able to somewhat restrain "Weaponized Finance", which might take the wind out of a lot of black sails. It's why I vote for the most progressive Democrat available in the primary, even if I'm doomed to hold my nose and vote for a slave to Mammon in the general election.

    580:

    Charlie @ 575 Disagree re. "gesture politics", but ... all that you say elsewhere in 575 & 576 is horribly likely to be true. [ note* ] As a "unionist" (note the absence of a capital letter) & an EU supporter ( It's easily the least-worst option) I am in a similar state of despair. Yes, I think it's going to get worse before it gets better, as well.

    Clamps @ 578 😂 Twas I wot thunk of Rees-Smaug ....

    [ note* Euw - hadn't hought of THAT aspect of removing fuckwit Begum's nationality. My opinion: As someone who voluntarily joined a movement functionally-indistinguishable from the Waffen-SS or worse, she should be put on trial for as many charges as can be made to stick. WHEN convicted, she should NOT be sent to prison, but a secure mental institution. Yes/No? ]

    581:

    UPDATE: ANOTHER Labour & THREE TORY MP's have now Jumped Ship. Will it stop there, or will the whole house of cards collapse? Place your bets!

    582:

    Para 3:-

    I'm not sure we need "IndyRef2". If the next Scottish Parliament electrion returns an SNP overall majority all we need is for the SNP leadership to grow a spine and say that Brexit means that the House of Oathbreakers commits multiple breaches of the Scotland Acts, and introduce a 1 clause bill, the "Treaty of Union with England Revocation Bill", and then for the SNP MSPs to vote it through.

    583:

    And my take.

    The girl voluntarily left the UK to join the proscribed terrorist group Da'esh (the preferred name for said group among actual Muslims), who were talking about being an "Islamic caliphate". At this point she voluntarily revoked her UK citizenship to become part of this self-styled and totally unrecognised nation.

    584:

    While I fully agree with your concern, as that law was intended and is currently being used, you are probably behind even me in the Niemöller ranking (*); you are not the target, yet. But, as you are aware, hatred begets hatred, and this sort of treatment does not stop where it is first targetted. Furthermore, as you know, even if you allow for anti-Muslim hate crimes being under-reported, the relative risk of anti-Jewish ones remains high; the old grass-roots prejudice remains.

    However, the current vicious official and unofficial discrimination against Muslims dominates all other forms in the UK, and they are most definitely treated as second-class humans by the UK (at home and abroad), even more than people of black Imperial ancestry. You know the facts as well as I do, probably better, so let's skip them. I cannot condemn those who feel that the UK is waging war against them, nor can I support our bigotted 'definitions' of terrorism.

    And that is what we need to stand against, NOW, as Niemöller learnt.

    To paws4thot: she was 15 at the time, and the UK almost encourages dual-citizenship; to say she chose statelessness is unjustifiable, at best.

    (*) I was born in Nigeria when it was a colony and, while its independence Act does NOT give me the right to citizenship, that detail has not stopped several Home Secretaries from using it against British Muslims.

    585:

    Currently Canada doesn't have a law like that, but our next government (almost certainly Scheer's neocons) is likely to bring in something like it.

    Strikes me that before getting politically active in retirement I should look at renouncing my British citizenship. Wouldn't want to be deported to a country I left when I was 3 because someone has decided that opposing pollution is terrorism…

    586:

    To a country that has already decided that opposing pollution is terrorism :-(

    Actually, if they follow the UK, renouncing the citizenship wouldn't help much; indeed, one reason that May is a Brexiteer is that she wanted to remove the constraint that she couldn't make people stateless by fiat, and being in the EU wouldn't let her.

    587:

    ... and the rightists who just split off from Labour to go die in the wilderness (because they're (a) idiots and (b) have no stomach to work for control over party policy from within).

    Does your opinion on this change now that it's a cross-party Independence Group?

    Listening yesterday to Chuka Umunna on the Today program was interesting; the BBC made the point that he'd been round to Labour donors looking for funding, and IIRC he pointed out that if you wanted to achieve an effect, it took money...

    The question is whether the time available to achieve an effect (i.e. "before it's too late") has driven the decision to separate - changing Labour party policy is something that will take most of a decade. If they're convinced that Momentum is going to deselect the ideologically impure, it may be "better to burn out, than to fade away" (on theme, quoting the Kurgan in a political discussion?).

    It could be a copycat attempt to follow the "Movement" successes of Five Star, or Macron - with the splitters of the PFLJ having realised that their political careers are near the end under the existing system, better to reframe it as a bold objection and take a long shot at the next Government as the "I told you so" party?

    If I was being an idealist rather than a cynic, I might suggest that they've just reached a peak of disillusionment with the existing system, and see two Parties that are willing to sell their soul (and screw over the UK) just so long as they gain or maintain power.

    How many more Conservatives need to resign before the Chief Whip gets really, really, nervous about any vote of confidence?

    588:

    I agree with the main thrust of what I think you're saying (he says, covering himself with caveats) although I might disagree with how you say it.

    Hate begets hate; revolutions eat their young.

    I agree that there is a young lady sat in a refugee camp (detention camp?) in Syria, who is British. She was born British, grew up and was radicalised here, and may have gone off to join a reprehensible regime - but she's our creation, and our problem. Yes, she may be anything from a daft and naive young idealist, to an embittered and determined hater with a murderous streak. No matter.

    If she has acted criminally in Syria, they have mechanisms to deal with her actions. If she presents a danger to our society, we have mechanisms to deal with her actions. If she just wants to get her head down and get on with her life, fair enough. It's her right. As you say, declaring people as "reprehensible other, to be cast out" is a dangerous path.

    To those who suggest that she chose to emigrate, I'd point out that as we took part in the destruction of her emigration destination, we have to pick up the pieces.

    I cannot condemn those who feel that the UK is waging war against them, nor can I support our bigoted 'definitions' of terrorism.

    Trickier one, that. I can condemn them, when they murder civilians. You don't get to grab an aid worker, and declare that slitting their throat is striking back against the West - no bigotry is required.

    Terrorism is the deliberate targeting and murder of civilians, to achieve your political goal. Not the "I was aiming for the bloke with a gun, but missed and hit another crowd member"; not the "we hit the car carrying the sniper/bomber, but killed their human shield"; not even the "we tried to shoot down the troop carrier, but hit the airliner instead".

    Nope, Terrorism is the point where you plant a bomb is a busy town centre, or carry a gun into a shopping centre / hotel, or make that civilian dig their own grave before you shoot them in the back. So that the population is in terror of you. And I can condemn it, as should you.

    589:

    As someone who voluntarily joined a movement functionally-indistinguishable from the Waffen-SS or worse

    Greg: so 15-16 year old girls who fall victim to grooming gangs should be treated as war criminals, is that what you're saying?

    It has also been noted that 16-yo's don't generally run to some distant refuge—they run from something. Might be worth investigating what was so bad about her family situation that ISIS looked like an improvement.

    590:

    Does your opinion on this change now that it's a cross-party Independence Group?

    I posted right before today's Tory defections. Forget 72 hours being a long time in politics; make it 72 minutes.

    How many more Conservatives need to resign before the Chief Whip gets really, really, nervous about any vote of confidence?

    I'm guessing it needs to be enough to overtop the DUP contingent. Once that happens, May effectively loses her majority.

    591:

    To paws4thot: she was 15 at the time

    So you're saying that, at 15 she was old enough to travel abroad without a responsible adult accompanying her, to travel to an ultimate destination in a 3rd nation, when there make the decision to marry a member of Da'esh in the knowledge of what Da'esh stand for, including that her husband would expect her to have unprotected sex with her, but not to understand the consequences of the decision tree I've sketched out?

    When answering please bear in mind that I know Muslims, all of whom say "Da'esh are not Muslims".

    592:

    "ASM @ 459 Can you, or anyone explain, then, why the areas with the MOST EU aid & support voted most strongly for Brexit? Because, given that, your "argument" makes no sense at all ..."

    Greg: In which case you clearly live under a rock. A quick answer would be because it was all our money anyway. The regions that you are talking about are given large amounts of "development funding" (Accompanied by the inevitable EU plaque in the foyer.) and apply for said funding through an EU process.

    In terms of where that money comes from though, in funding the EU, the UK, the French and the Germans are the only net contributors. Everyone else takes money out, hence the Five Star movement and the predeliction that the EU has for bollocking the Italians every time they fail to meet their own funding commitments, and yet never go through upon any real threats to trash the Italian economy as punishment as Italy is a real source of cash in years when their economy actually works. Shame that hasn't happened in many, many years.

    However, in the case of smaller countries like Greece, for example, it is an exercise in making it clear to any tin pot micro state that wants the teat, who it is supplies the milk. To the point where you turn the screws upon them to the point where I would bet there are people who are starving.

    Hence, Nicola Sturgeon and her vehement insistence that Scotland will/must join the European Union immediately after it throws of the shackles of the raw fascist oppression that is government from London, and the future will then be bright, powered by wind turbines and whisky exports, and every baby born there will be immediately assigned a social worker.

    The rest of my concerns about loss of industries ought to fit with the reality that Scotland used to have a lot of industries that got flogged off and gutted. (Ravenscraig Steel Works, just as an example.) That doesn't happen overseas. Surely? You don't understand that if Scotland had industries that hadn't wrecked or flogged off, that it wouldn't be so dependent upon state funding as it is?

    593:

    Addition: The SNP nakedly appeals to people who know where the money comes from. If it doesn't come from Westminster, it comes from Europe. But it prompts the question of why the place needs funding in the first place, and it's partly the fact that it's internal economy has been trashed, as I point out in just about any other post I've written about the UK as a whole, but that I would assume you haven't read.

    594:

    I would say that in the case of a lot of these initiatives, getting money via the EU (regardless of the ultimate source of that money) is the only way to get funding as it simply wouldn't be there otherwise due to whatever combination of regional and national politics and policies are in place. This is particularly true or larger scale, multi-year projects that the local authorities have no money for because their budget simply doesn't allow it.

    I'd also counter that the reason they voted leave was not due to some collective realisation that the money is actually all within the UK economy and the EU is taking away more than it is doling out. Most of these regions are economically and socially deprived in some way and people there saw the Brexit referendum as a convenient way of expressing anger at decades of political and financial neglect at the hands of Westminster. The fact that the leave campaign managed this blame shifting sleight of hand and managed to bundle it all in with a nice side order of xenophobia was enough to seal the deal.

    Then again, that's based largely on my regional and social biases as much as it is anything else. YMMV based on your own location, outlook and prejudices - it is odd though how places with near zero immigration that massively benefit from various EU projects voted leave though.

    595:

    It has also been noted that 16-yo's don't generally run to some distant refuge—they run from something. Might be worth investigating what was so bad about her family situation that ISIS looked like an improvement.

    Exactly. And even teenagers from mostly-sane families make horrible decisions, and this is something I know as a parent. The really smart anti-terror thing to do would be to bring her back to the UK, find her a ghostwriter, and send her on a speaking tour.

    596:

    Let's analyse some of your statements from "somewhere in Scotland"

    Yes, lots of infrastructure projects near where I live have received partial EU funding. A "whole truth" there would have to acknowledge that these projects applied for and were refused UK funding before becoming eligible for the EU funding.

    We already have a situation where poor people in the UK can't afford enough food every week. Web search for "Trussell Trust" and separately for "food banks" the next time you're off your soap box.

    As for your reality about Scottish industry, that's true, well except that the Scottish economy was controlled by the Palace of Oathbreakers at the time, so blaming its gutting on the Scottish National Party is patently absurd.

    597:

    Martin @ Charlie @ 588/589 Um, err ... see what both of you mean. Agree that "We" helped create the problem, if only because no-one had the nerve to step REALLY HARD on religious extremists preaching nazi propaganda, for fear of being thought "waycist" - see also ( SUPRISE!) the then-in-office corrupt Tower Hamlets council. Messy, isn't it?

    Paws @ 591 No Da'esh are not muslims in the way that Arnoud Amoury or Saint Dominic were not christians, right? See also "the Inquisition" ( No Monty Python jokes - please? )

    ASM @ 592 because it was all our money anyway. Bollocks - a proportion of it was some of our money. By the same argument, London should not subsidise Scotland or Wales or Cornwall or NI, should it? Though I DO like your take on the sainted Nicola, a.k.a. "The wee Fishwife".

    598:

    I think that longer term the parties splitting into smallerones is likely beneficial and more refelctive of the political landscape here, the problem we face is that the electoral mechanisms and processes aren't there to support that model yet and the whole political climate is so tribalised that adjusting to a model where co-operation is required will take a long term and in the interim everything will get hopelessly logjammed.

    I assume "here" means the UK. I have similar feelings about the US although the barriers are even higher than for the UK.

    Plus in the back of my mind I keep thinking of how the governments of Belgium and Italy operate. Or don't.

    599:

    Greg, if 99%+ of a specific and identifiable religious group say "these people are not us and do not represent us" in a manner that is deliberately and intendedly offensive to "these people" and "these people" behave in a manner contrary to the religious group's texts, I think the opinion is valid.

    Alternatively, tell me how Da'esh actions fit with this quote from the Q'ran "He who kills one man, it is as if he has killed all mankind. He who saves one man, it is as if he has saved all mankind".

    (oh and remember that I am not a Muslim)

    600:

    "As for your reality about Scottish industry, that's true, well except that the Scottish economy was controlled by the Palace of Oathbreakers at the time, so blaming its gutting on the Scottish National Party is patently absurd."

    Ok, so I AM right?....And yet you're going to sulk about the fact the SNP nakedly plays upon this situation and someone is pointing out how bent it all is? Given that you appear to comment upon every single thing that appears on this website, why not hop off and get your own soapbox?

    I would be pretty sure that any internal funding of UK projects by the government runs into the morass of laws that the EU has upon state aid, which the Skylon project, for example, must have run into when George Osbourne showed up for his photo-op with them, and which Vulch pointed out he then didn't fund, and was news to me. I'll bet they have a Blue Plaque in their foyer, and Dassault MLA project probably certainly does.

    Greg: By definition of being a net contributor to the EU's funds, that sum which we obtain back from them in funding is money that could have just been spent ourselves. Hence Boris and that stupid bloody bus, which even I won't defend in terms of whatever the real figure is, but which did illustrate the idea that a lot of money is dispatched off to Europe and is spent by Europe, that would otherwise simply be spent internally.

    601:

    How were members of Hitler Youth treated after WWII? Did it work? Are there any lessons to be learned from that?

    As to age not being a barrier to terrorist charges, look at the case of Omar Khadr. Is that really the precedent we should be trying to set and follow?

    602:

    How about addressing the fact that the funds eventually obtained from, say, the European Regional Development Fund were applied for from, and refused by, the Palace of Oathbreakers?

    603:

    Er, the point is that the Palace of Oathbreakers took the decisions to gut and sell these heavy industries. To quote from John Harvey Jones circa 1982 "I would never vote Conservative, because they have been responsible for the unnecessary (my emphasis) destruction of a third of Britain's manufacturing base".

    604:

    "...European Regional Development Fund were applied for from, and refused by, the Palace of Oathbreakers?"

    They were probably not applied for.

    As I said, they probably contravene the morass of laws that are written around "State Aid," that exist to provide the French and Germans with protection for everything from their car industry to their aircraft manufacturer, because they employ their mates from the ENA and SUPAERO, and wherever the Germans graduate their Eurocrats. (A thought being, name a Eurocrat who is British. Anyone at all, Neil Kinnock as a EU Commissioner, yes, but who else?)

    An example is that I once had a job/apprenticeship involving a fish farm at the back end of West Yorkshire: - It was utilising old infrastructure - Concrete caissons from an old water works, that were going to be used to farm fish. It had it's Blue Plaque prominently displayed in the stairs up to it's office.

    If it is easier to do that than it is to apply to your local government body to help fund the repurposing of a water works, it says something. A government that doesn't fund a space programme, and presumably funds nothing in between worth supporting either, just prompts thought about why that is the case.

    605:

    Can we please accept that I am sufficiently engaged with local and regional politics to know which funding routes were, and were not, explored?

    606:

    "Can we please accept that I am sufficiently engaged with local and regional politics to know which funding routes were, and were not, explored?"

    Well...I don't think that you are, which is why I provided the fish-farming example. As in They never applied to the UK government for these things, they couldn't have done, as it was such a small, local, project that the easiest funding mechanism for them to navigate must have been the EU fund, which involves thousands of these speculative projects across the continent, going all the way via Brussels and back.

    Have you ever applied for EU money for anything? I haven't but I know people who have navigated it and it is tedious but easier than getting UK money because of laws on state aid. They sure as hell don't obey this nonsense in Europe if you know where to look, and the reason is there is a lot of hiring of your mates. As Stross pointed out earlier, the UK seems never to have gotten this, either at street level or in positions of authority, hence: Scotland being a deindustrialised wasteland, and yet apparently German people can keep any industry they like.

    This is a pointless conversation if you're not prepared to contemplate that.

    607:

    No, that is not the reason that EU money is better value. Academic research has no such limitations, and the same applies, redoubled in spades and with bells on. Many, many academics gave up on UK funding, because the applications and constraints cost more than the grant generated. The cause is a combination of monetarism and bureaucracy run riot.

    608:

    There's a lot of community support and outreach functions as well as educational initiatives part funded by the EU in my area. Because of the way things are organised it tends to come in two or three year blocks, so they hire the people, it (hopefully) starts to work and show results and then is promptly defunded (thanks austerity) because the local authority can no longer make their contribution due to cuts. People lose their jobs, the good work is undone, the EU money ends up back somewhere else and then folk look for someone to blame. Of course, it must be the EU and westminster because that's the people on the telly said.

    609:

    So you're saying that, at 15 she was old enough to travel abroad without a responsible adult accompanying her

    This made me smile. Yes, a 15-year-old should be perfectly capable of this, although we seem more nervous as a society nowadays. There's always the example of Jack Cornwell

    The threshold for solo international travel at my (MOD-run) boarding school was "Secondary education" (i.e. 11 or 12 years old). Primary kids had to be picked up from the school by family.

    Secondary kids were handed passport, airline ticket, rail ticket, and taken to Dunblane's railway station at the start of the holidays. In many/most of our cases, our (serving) parents were based in Germany; so this involved train to Edinburgh/Glasgow, bus to airport, check yourself onto the Shuttle, change at Heathrow, carry on to Dortmund/Dusseldorf. Declaring yourself an "Unaccompanied Minor" meant that you got shepherded everywhere by long-suffering BA staff, and kept in the terminally-boring "UM Cage" during transit. Stuff that, we wanted to go window-shopping.

    I once managed this route without a passport (Glasgow Passport Office were on strike, and my renewal hadn't returned by the holidays) on the strength of my Familienausweis and a uniformed parent just-about visible from the Grenschutz' desk - having signed away British Airways' responsibility, and the return half of my ticket, should the West Germans refuse me entry. I still remember the awkwardness of the Heathrow BA staff member who had to explain things and ask me to sign the form.

    ...I even got mugged at Green Park as a 14-year-old, when the journey involved "train to King's Cross, underground to Heathrow, change at Green Park".

    610:

    I'm not sure I understand your syntax, but my late ex said that if they had not deorbited the tanks, it would have been a higher payload to orbit, since they have to have engines and fuel to deorbit the tanks. Without that, they'd have gone to orbit.

    611:

    I'm so sorry that I used a phase that any ignorant man-on-the-street would understand. In the future, I'll refrain from eschewing obfuscation, and use more technical terms, such as "far side of the moon from the Earth", thus wasting more electrons, photons, and typing time.

    612:

    What were they going to do? Sorry, my late ex is late, unfortunately, so I can't ask her, but I was under the impression they, the engineers, kept wanting to keep the tanks up, possibly setting them up near Station, connecting them, and building a real space station.... Hell, if I'd had $10k to throw away when the Shuttle was still flying, I'd have bought a "getaway special", and put a model of a wheel station, a la Von Braun, in it, and have them shove it out, and see how it works. Then, maybe a model of one built to resemble a bunch of external tanks, connected into a wheel....

    613:

    The tanks were dropped while the stack was still sub-orbital, there were no engines of any kind on the tanks to de-orbit them although an offset pressure relief valve on the nose of the tank was used to make it tumble on re-entry. The shuttle always needed a short burn of the OMS engines to circularise the orbit so it didn't follow the tank into the ocean.

    For any launch system, the nearer a component gets to orbit the more important weight savings become. Not painting the shuttle ET after the first two flights saved 270kg of mass on the tank which translated directly to around 250kg more to orbit. Any new thermal protection for the tank t overcome the popcorning would need to be lighter than the foam for the same level of insulation so as not to impact the payload.

    614:

    The External Tank contents ran out at about 8 1/2 minutes into the flight having burned from the pad to that point when the stack was travelling mostly upward at about 8km/sec. The empty ET was then separated, releasing 30 tonnes of parasitic weight from the 80-tonne Orbiter (including Orbital Manoeuvering System fuel and payload) which then continued to a circular orbit using the Orbital Manoeuvering System engines with a burn lasting about two minutes or so -- it varied depending on the mission profile, total all-up payload and a few other things. At this point the ET did not possess a circularised orbit or enough velocity to stay in orbit by itself and it fell back to Earth in a mostly predictable trajectory. The Shuttle couldn't afford to spend fuel to deorbit the ET, it was going to fall back into the atmosphere by itself.

    Carrying the 30-tonne ET into orbit would mean sacrificing pretty much all of the payload in the payload bay, the raison d'etre for the Shuttle, to provide enough OMS fuel margin for the Shuttle to manoeuver in orbit and eventually fire off its own deorbit burn at end of mission. At that point you have an uncontrollable flimsy tank in orbit and nothing practical you could do with it. Adding even more bits to it, like airlocks, thrusters, reaction wheels, solar panels, insulation, air conditioning, instrumentation racks etc. necessary for a real space station would add to the mass needed to get into a circular orbit in the first place, or several more Shuttle launches to catch up to a single tank plus multiple spacewalks to outfit it with all the necessary bits to make the ET habitable, stable and not likely to re-enter uncontrollably a few weeks later.

    It was easier and cheaper to fly science labs in the Shuttle's payload bay, purpose-built on the ground and ready to use once the Shuttle got into orbit. Energy is a bitch sometimes.

    615:

    Carrying the 30-tonne ET into orbit would mean sacrificing pretty much all of the payload in the payload bay, the raison d'etre for the Shuttle, [et mucho cetera]

    Yes, that's why I think it was slightly too bad that Energiya didn't make it through the collapse of the USSR or that Shuttle-C didn't get off the ground. Figuring out what to do with all that mass-to-orbit would be a different exercise, but at least the capability would have been there.

    616:

    My principal objection to Hatton was his incompetence. Thatcher had just rammed her austerity dogma down the throat of the country (i.e. even if you are prepared to pay for it, you can't have it - suffer, you peasants), and it desperately needed real opposition. The Welsh Windbag didn't count. But the Liverpool idiots fucked it up, by doing something demonstrably illegal and refusing to budge. What I would have done is to have meetings up to the deadlines, and resign in mass, saying that it was impossible to meet the legal obligations within the constraints.

    Regrettably, I doubt that enough Conservative MPs will put their country before their party, and I have been expecting what you fear for some time. But you have heard that before :-(

    617:

    At this point she voluntarily revoked her UK citizenship to become part of this self-styled and totally unrecognised nation.

    You can believe that but it's not related to reality in any recognisable way. There are actual processes required to revoke UK citizenship, and she didn't carry them out. Not that she was eligible to, being 15 and all. Then there's the issue of the UK having agreed not to create stateless people.

    Morally, we have the problem that a child was persuaded by people on the internet to go into a situation she was completely unfamiliar with, and which reasonable adults would regard as traumatising. Conventionally society says "those persuading people are primarily responsible for this outrage". We say this especially in cases where the persuasion is of the form "come and have sex with me" and we call them paedophile gangs.

    What we don't normally do is say "hey, you were the victim of a particularly nasty crime which is known to have horrible long-term effects on your mental health, so we're going to treat you as a competent adult and punish you to, and even beyond, the maximum extent possible under our laws".

    I don't know the full facts of the case, but I really struggle to see how the UK committing further crimes against a UK citizen who is out of the country as a result of crimes committed against her is justified.

    618:

    they've just reached a peak of disillusionment with the existing system, and see two Parties that are willing to sell their soul (and screw over the UK)

    We've seen the same in Australia, FWIW, and interestingly a number of conservative women have resigned explicitly citing the appalling sexism of the right wing parties. The right wing coalition still have kind of a technical majority if you squint, which is how they just got defeated on a "lets torture refugees slightly less" bill.

    Seems like there is nothing like looming defeat to focus the mind :)

    How many more Conservatives need to resign before the Chief Whip gets really, really, nervous about any vote of confidence?

    I suspect that whip is nervous now, but they've been nervous for a long time. Relying on a corrupt bunch of fairy-worshipping hicks for confidence is not confidence-inspiring. Will they stay bought? Will they have a hissy fit over some issue of principle? Will they make even less reasonable demands (maybe stripping citizenship from anyone connected with the IRA... they're terrorists after all).

    619:

    to Ioan @472 I would add that it's easier for people to believe that their lack of space progress is due to the Big Bad Americans, than to face the reality that their electorate preferred to develop a welfare state over a space program. As a crucial point, I'd say, a welfare state resulted in a lot of money ending up in Big Pockets of some Big Americans, so I wouldn't say these options are mutually excluding.

    @472 I'm going to disagree here: the Russian program has already recovered from the Soviet collapse. That would be right, a lot was recovered, the problem is that most of these measures aren't as reliable as most people wanted, which is why the current crisis happening. The looming problem with education and personnel, the change of generation of rockets and technology upgrades, economic efficiency ... Come to think of it, they are the the same as for other countries, just in Roskosmos nobody actually says that some private genius is going to save the day.

    to SFreader @492 I often get demos re: life expectancy by gender off this site since they update fairly regularly from official census data. Hmmm - the male life expectancy is 65.6 yrs. BTW, this figure (rounded) is also quoted in the last link below. Seems like CIA is promoting fairly conservative view of the matters, especially if you look out for the fact that it was improving steadily for last decade. Current numbers are closer to 67,5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#After_WWII

    Although, current demographic is suffering the effect of previous generations depopulation wave. That's now is even one of national priorities Putin sounded on today's speech. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OucbOAYARZQ

    For one thing, reform efforts have resulted in massive cuts to healthcare expenditures. According to Novaya Gazeta, this year Russia has cut federal budget funding for outpatient clinics by 39 percent—68.995 billion rubles ($1.166 billion) this year, compared to 113.4 billion ($1.92 billion) the year before. This is probably not a common knowledge in the West, but Russia still has considerable presence of "free" press in it's media, and for what I can say, NG is one of the most "free" newspapers out there, among several others. That is, at least for several years, I don't remember a single time they've posted an article that wasn't a blatant defamation of Russian government, or people, history and culture.

    620:

    I think the Home Sec understands that his decision will be overturned in the courts, but he thinks that its still worth doing for 2 reasons: a) discouragement for like-minded 15 year olds: your actions have consequences b) its politically popular

    You can all vent about which reason has priority !

    621:

    to remove citizenship from someone who MIGHT be eligible for citizenship somewhere else

    That seems to be the right wing meme du jour, including the right wings of various nominally left wing parties(1).

    What amuses me is that in Australia it directly followed the Section 44 crisis where a bunch of MPs were found ineligible because they could claim (or had) dual citizenship. You would think that those people, and anyone linked to them, would react badly to letting the minister for immigration strip their Asutralian citizenship without anything short of a full-on criminal trial. But no, even Barnaby Joyce who had to go to a bye-election, wholeheartedly support the change.

    I would piss myself laughing if the new Labour minister for immigration kicked those idiots out of the country sans citizenship, just on the grounds that they're too stupid to be allowed to stay(2).

    1: the Overton Window being what it is 2: yes, it's perilously close to eugenics. So is a whole lot of other immigration law.

    622:

    Re: Moon's dark vs. far side

    'Far Side' - the more technical term immediately evokes Gary Larson cartoon images. Think he drew at least one cartoon showing lunar residents' reactions to humans tossing junk into their backyard.

    623:

    paws @ 599 Ihave read, at one point or another most of the "bible" &"recital" ... As you might expect, they are full of mutual contradictions & it is entirely possible to select quotations supporting almost any p.o.v. ... including slaughtering anyone who does not "respect" your personal BigSkyFairy. So, your argument simply does not hold water, I'm afraid.

    ASM @ 600 a lot of money is dispatched off to Europe and is spent by Europe, that would otherwise simply be spent internally. MAYBE - really? Tory aid to starving jobless in Middlesboro? Liebour aid to out-of work farm labourers in Cornwall? Somehow I don't believe it.

    EC@ 616 NO Hatton was ( & probaly still is ) simply a wrecker & a local megalomainiac. Liverpool has just about recovered, I'm glad to say.

    Charles W @ 620 My money is on # 1 .... Some people NEVER seem to get that "It can happen to YOU" - hence the knife-crime increase. Rather like the stupidity of the US refusing to sign treaties - boy is that going to bite them some time soon ( i.e.next 50 years )

    624:

    We've actually got mass-to-orbit capability, we just don't have a lot of heavy throw-weight launchers and even fewer heavy payloads begging for a boost on those launchers. That 400-tonne space station circling the Earth today wasn't dependent on a handful of heavy lifts, it was put together in orbit from twenty-tonne lumps and that's actually a bigger achievement than the existence of a brute-force heavy lifter.

    We don't lift steel plates and weld them together in orbit, we don't cut holes in repurposed fuel tanks and string fairy lights after throwing in a couple of oxygen tanks, instead we can dock spacecraft autonomously and transfer fuel and liquids and gases, walk articulated robot arms along the spine to get to out-of-the-way parts of the ISS, carry out long multiple EVAs to replace parts and extend the structures. We're actually quite good at building stuff that works in orbit but that assumes it's planned out on the ground to be easy to do, orbital Lego.

    625:

    "Carrying the 30-tonne ET into orbit would mean sacrificing pretty much all of the payload in the payload bay..."

    That doesn't matter though. For that flight, the tank is the payload. Indeed you do still need more flights to bring up all the rest of the stuff to make a space station out of it, but you also need several flights if you use the method of bringing up pre-assembled chunks of space station and joining them together in orbit. Indeed that method needs more flights overall, because it is less mass efficient; and it means doing all the orbital assembly operations outside and in vacuum, whereas with a tank there's very little outside stuff and most of it is done on the inside, enclosed and with at least the pressure of an atmosphere even if it's a while before the means of keeping it breathable can start up.

    The other thing is, how else can you get a big hull up there? That shuttle tank is pretty bloody huge. Do we have any kind of rocket capable of getting a thing that big into orbit that isn't part of the rocket itself? I'm pretty sure we don't, so any large space station hull is going to have to be some kind of repurposed rocket part, and a rocket which naturally splits apart into {great big tank} and {all the other bits} is the obvious kind to be using.

    (Note that this is all assuming that building a space station is what you're trying to do in the first place. This sub-thread does seem to have the problem of not properly distinguishing between the aims of "build a space station to do space station things with" and "do something in orbit that may or may not need a space station to do it with depending on how you do it".)

    626:

    The various modules that were coupled together in orbit to form the basis of the ISS were all fitted out with air recirculation, power distribution, toilets, heating and cooling, radiation protection, airlocks, insulation and a hundred and one other things on the ground where they could be tested and checked out before being shipped off for launch. Once in orbit and coupled together the modules became a virtually instant shirt-sleeve environment, ready for work.

    All these sort of things would need to be laboriously installed by hand in an orbiting External Tank before it could become a shirt-sleeve environment (after cutting holes in the Tank to get inside first, of course). Refitting an External Tank which is, of course actually two tanks in a common shell, to be habitable would take hundreds, perhaps thousands of hours of work in heavy clumsy pressure suits before shirt-sleeve working could happen. All this time, of course, the foam insulation on the outside of the Tank would be crumbing and breaking off and causing a navigation hazard for any approaching vehicles and indeed anything else in a similar orbit. The spray-on foam was designed to hold together for the Shuttle ascent and no more and even then it often broke off, it was certainly not specced for exposure to 1 kW/sq metre solar radiation in orbit for years. Making the foam more rigid and robust would add to the weight of the Tank which is a no-no.

    Orbital Tank Farm wasn't a goer for a lot of good technical reasons but it made for some great skiffy illustrations in SF magazines.

    627:

    Guardian seems to fundamentally misunderstand the split or perhaps I do.

    A centrist position might arguably be to accept a soft Brexit. Yet the independents are not selling themselves as soft Brexiters but as solid remainers and advocates of the so-called people’s vote.

    Most people on the left are remainers, but a significant minority aren’t. Most on the right are leavers, but plenty are not. But the left-right spectrum is not the only spectrum that matters in modern politics. Curtice argues that the axis running from social-liberal to social-conservative is just as important nowadays.

    My impression is that there are two solidly "leave" parties, Labour and Conservative, and one solidly remain, the Liberal Democrats. A centrist position between those might indeed be "soft exit", but the actual voting population is not split that way - it's half exit, half remain. And on that basis there would seem to be a gaping hole between 600-ish leave MPs and 10-ish remain ones, to be filled by solid remain MPs. That is centrist between "parliament" and "population".

    They're also ignoring the most important political axis, the green-brown one. Or, to put it more bluntly, the civilisation vs nihilism one. The existing parties are all wholehearted members of the nihilist side of politics (hmm.... maybe we see that with Brexit too).

    628:

    You know, I find it sad that we're at a place where ISIS combatants have such bad cooties that they can't be let back in the country.

    What ever happened to war crimes trials? If someone defected to ISIS and wants to come back, let them bring their children back, put the defectors on trial for treason, and adopt the kids out to nice, solid citizens if their parents get convicted. The kids can even be raised as good middle-of-the-road Muslims if desired.

    This denies ISIS any victory at all. Their people are not scary, they have to submit to civilized laws, their children will be raised care about the rights of others while respecting their religion, and ISIS will be purged.

    The people who are scared of letting potential terrorists in seem to be so scared, even though they own most of the anti-personnel recreational firearms. What are they afraid of, the law working? Civilization enduring?

    629:

    I dunno, I have this picture of the writer of that piece sitting in an Oxford college room with a glass of wine in his hand, looking around the room to make sure everyone knows he's just made a most frightfully deep and important point...

    (Fkn bingo! I've just looked him up and it turns out he was at Balliol.)

    ...with nary a thought of even the possibility of its bogosity.

    It seems to me that he is just setting up a straw target in order to tilt at it. The "centrist" bit is his own idea:

    "It is tempting to see the independents as the often trailed new centre party that many have expected - and some have hoped - would emerge from the simultaneous moves of Labour to the far left under Corbyn and of the Tories to the far right in the aftermath of the Brexit vote."

    ...and he then goes on to complain that the new group did indeed come into existence as a result of that vote, but they aren't what he wants them to be because they don't fit his own rather narrow definition of "centrist" due to their taking their only possible stance on the very matter of policy that brought them into being, and this is somehow awful. I think. It doesn't even make sense. Oh, hang on, he's not even thinking originally, he's replaying it from this Curtice chap... OK, basically he's done one of those making a mountain out of a molehill exercises I used to loathe so much when they made us do it at school, based around some piece which none of the links in the article actually go to so we can't see what the original bloke was really on about. Which is kind of a shame because I think you're quite right that there is some fundamental misunderstanding here.

    It's quite true that quite a few people have had the thought that the two main parties moving apart leaving nothing in the middle but a few Lib Dems groaning "We're not dead!", combined with increasing disunity in both parties, has created a possible opening for SDP II: The Quickening (now starring The Ex-Tories). Because it's kind of an obvious thing to think about. Since a major driver of the disunity in both parties is the leaders' support for Leave vs. the members' support for Remain, it's equally obvious what any such new party's own position on the matter would be. Not to mention the built-in strategic advantage of calling on the huge pool of voters left unrepresented by the lack of a decent Remain option to vote for. I don't see it's anything to get worked up about; what would be shocking would be if they supported Leave.

    What I've seen so far of the reactions of said huge pool seems to be reminiscent of people trapped for ages in a windowless dungeon when someone spots a speck of light through the stonework, so if this new party gets big enough to field a significant number of candidates in the next election it wouldn't surprise me if it did rather more damage to both Tories and Labour than the really rather minor threat of UKIP that panicked the Tories into kicking the whole fucking thing off in the first place.

    Supporters of the opposing wings of both main parties also appear to think the new group is a potential threat, as there seems to be a lot of frothing at the mouth and flinging of turds going on - anything to promote the message that these are evil awful people and put people off voting for them either individually or collectively. Condemning them as being illegitimate unless they sit a by-election seems to be a popular one with both sides; it's a handy one to keep on beating them with until they do contest an election, and it has rather more rabble-rousing potential than quibbles over the legitimacy of calling them "centrist" to which the passenger on the Clapham omnibus would retort "'course they bloody are".

    Having said all that, their position on Leave vs. Remain is hardly even relevant. Doing a national vote - election or referendum - takes 6 weeks. (I don't know if it's permissible to shorten that in emergency, but practical considerations impose a similar but less flexible limit.) There is an unpleasantly enormous chance that by the time we next have any election, Leave vs. Remain will have been superseded as a factor in voting by "we're fucked; what now?" - which is pretty much a rich vs. poor spectrum with "anything but Corbyn" at one end and "anything but the Tories" at the other. They will still have a chance at the votes of people who did support Corbyn but have got pissed off with his endless and futile fucking about, but they will have lost a significant electoral advantage against Labour. Against the Tories, not so much, since they're the ones who are drunk at the wheel. (When they woke it was real, too late to have sussed.)

    As for the minimal representation of green politics - partly that's the British electoral system ensuring the actual Green party never gets any seats, but a lot of it is simply a reflection of British people on average rating it low on their list of important concerns. There's a fair bit of perception that it's a choice between that and some other thing they care about more strongly, and there's an awful lot of SEP. There is of course essentially no support for, or even conception of, the extensive and radical nature of the required transformation (and there's no way you could make that fit any definition of "centrist").

    630:

    Oh goody, Infowar 2020 has already started. Just as predicted in 2016.

    631:

    Pigeon @ 625: (Note that this is all assuming that building a space station is what you're trying to do in the first place. This sub-thread does seem to have the problem of not properly distinguishing between the aims of "build a space station to do space station things with" and "do something in orbit that may or may not need a space station to do it with depending on how you do it".)

    I've read man doesn't adapt well to long term weightlessness. At the same time I think we need to have a manned space program. The robots have done great work, but we need people too. Taking those two together says to me we need a real space station that rotates to provide "gravity". The external tanks could have provided a nucleus for that station.

    632:

    @ 626:

    Lots of reasons why it couldn't be done. Just like they told the Wright Brothers.

    633:

    On the other hand, if you want to study the effects of freefall, it's better to have a non-rotating station, no?

    The other problem with the old tank farm dynamo concept (two clusters of tanks tethered to each other and spun up in a skyhook configuration) is that it turned out (on STS-75) that not only do tethers in space conduct a fair amount of electricity as predicted, but that weird and unexpectedly destructive things happen to the tether.

    634:

    Lots of reasons why it couldn't be done. Just like they told the Wright Brothers

    That's a particularly poor example because of the number of people working on the problem at the time and the long history of people nearly succeeding. If they hadn't won that particular race someone else would have, and at about the same time. The Wright brothers were the first just as Edison invented the light bulb and Marconi the radio. Magnificent achievements by all means, but more "dedicated application of existing technology and systems" than "radical and unexpected invention".

    "it can't be done" is better reserved, IMO, for things where the consensus is that they can't be done and there was no plausible evidence that it could be. The one that springs to my mind is human powered flight rather than say the human powered helicopter (which is one of those "technically it's a helicopter but you're really pushing the definition" records). But even then there was a long history of less successful attempts going back 50-odd years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_human-powered_aircraft

    635:

    Heteromeles @ 628 What ever happened to war crimes trials? Spot on. AIUI. several people have already suggested this, but certain politicians prefer willy-waving, it seems. The kids can even be raised as good middle-of-the-road Muslims if desired. This is where the entire "Prevent " stategy is a complete waste of space ... QUOTE:
    Seriously, Judaism, Islam and Christianity have such barkingly bonkers scriptures that the smarter theologians tend to reject the literalist interpretations, view them as metaphors, and start generalising -- at which point you get Kabbalism, Sufism, and Transhumanism as the reified belief kernels of those faiths. ENDQUOTE. - from one C. Stross, 2016. So good I put it in my "Commonplaces" book.

    Pigeon @ 629 Condemning them as being illegitimate unless they sit a by-election seems to be a popular one with both sides; Which is utter bollocks, as we vote for CANDIDATES. I'm NOT a Liebour voter, but I ( & a huge number of others ) vote for Stella, right? Personal votes for locally-popular cndidates & bugger their party alliegience ... The reason a lot of people don't/won't vote "green" is that they are a complete sham & fake - a subject I've ranted on about, previously.

    JBS @ 632 & Moz @ 634 The Wright brothers were, to some extent lucky. Who now remembers either Lilienthal or Geo Cayley or Alberto Santos-Dumont? The latter two may actually have beaten the Wright bros to it, but no-one is entirely sure ( IIRC ) As for that crook Edison ... let's hear it for Sir Joseph Swan

    636:

    As for that crook Edison ... let's hear it for Sir Joseph Swan

    In Britain the joint company to market Swan's successful light-bulb design using tungsten filaments was called Swan-Edison, in the US the company was called Edison-Swan.

    637:

    Yep.

    Talk to anyone who has actually built a house. I don't mean bought one and had it built. I mean actually swung a hammer or at least was the hands on GC. And they will say you want to do WHAT? In gloves! Wearing diapers! And no building supply store within 3 weeks? And when you do run into a stopper you can't go and work on something else because the bits for that will not be around for another month?

    The current gradual trend in the US (and other places) is to factory build more and more of a building/home in chunks and ship the bits somewhere for final assembly and fit out. Just like with the ISS.

    638:

    What ever happened to war crimes trials?

    They were predicated on a few things that don't exist in a lot of these situations any more.

    A group of defeated nation state leaders that can symbolically surrender.

    A defeated nation state that can be set up to deal with the left over fighters.

    A physical place for the defeated to live as citizens of the defeated state.

    These people don't fit into that war crimes box that people carry about in their head.

    639:

    But the Wright brothers knew something that apparently no one else fiddling about with the problem did.

    That the propellers were also airfoils. That was the key item they had that no one else seemed to have figured out.

    I don't see any such knowledge breakthrough on shuttle tanks into space. I DO see that yes it could be done with a LOT of design work and engineering. All of which would add to getting the weight into orbit.

    640:

    Plus the fact that the victors aren't as lily white as their supporters claim, and don't want to open that can of worms. There are a lot of things that were done by the USA and even UK that are as much war crimes as anything that Da'esh have done. Waging undeclared war, 'extraordinary rendition' including of non-combatants, collective punishment, bombing hospitals, torture, use of the starvation of civilians and deprivation of medical supplies as a tool of war and so on. Yes, many of the clearest cases of those are in Afghanistan, Yemen and Palestine, but worms have a habit of escaping.

    641:

    Heavier-than-air flight had already been achieved, with gliders. Powered heavier-than-air flight was the thing the Wright Brothers figured out and demonstrated but advances in internal-combustion engines meant that someone was eventually going to fit engines into a glider-type aircraft structure and make them work. It was steam-engine time, basically.

    They definitely advanced the science of powered flight, they realised they needed to understand what the airflow over a wing did, they built and tested prototypes and made careful selection of materials before constructing and successfully operating the Flyer.

    ObSF: "With the Night Mail", by Kipling.

    642:

    Realising that marine propeller design was not going to cut it in air was definitely a key breakthrough.

    643:

    Again, it was treating the propeller like an airfoil that was their big advance. In addition to all of the wing airfoil studies they had done.

    Then they realized that the airspeed over the propeller was variable from hub to tip.

    That's where they beat everyone.

    Heck those balsa rubber band wind up things that cost $0.10 when I was a kid in the 60s had variable pitch props.

    644:

    Just to clarify, by variable I mean the pitch varied from the hub to the tip. Not that they varied dynamically.

    645:

    Do we have any kind of rocket capable of getting a thing that big into orbit that isn't part of the rocket itself? I'm pretty sure we don't,

    Yes we do, and a prototype is docked to the ISS right now: the Bigelow Expandable Activity Module, which is a prototype/test-bed for the proposed Bigelow commercial space station. Originally conceived of as a destination for space tourism (zero-gee sex among the not-totally-over-the-hill billionaire set, I guess), but the tech is interesting in its own right because the modules expand to full size only after they're in orbit, so aren't limited in volume by payload shroud dimensions.

    If NASA were remotely serious about long-duration human space missions, e.g. to Near-Earth asteroids or Mars, this would be one of the key components (send the crew up/down in an Orion capsule, but provide a BEAM for them to use as living/sleeping/laboratory space during a multi-month to multi-year voyage). Instead they seem to be currently focussing on using an evolved ESA ATV as the mission module—a decent solution for shipping canned rations up to orbit, but far more cramped than you'd want for long-duration living space.

    (Meanwhile, SpaceX seem to be merrily re-inventing Wernher Von Braun's silvery finned rocket ships from the early 1950s, only with methalox propellant with full-flow staged combustion, instead of 1940s vintage RFNA/hydrazine, just because.)

    646:

    I believe the Wrights were the first to have a mechanism for roll control*, giving them three axis maneuverability, *Though their method of roll control was incompatible with speed & durability.

    647:

    if this new party gets big enough to field a significant number of candidates in the next election it wouldn't surprise me if it did rather more damage to both Tories and Labour than the really rather minor threat of UKIP

    What I've seen of these Independence people does not give me the warm fuzzies: individually they're despicable neoliberal/xenophobic ass-hats, whose main point of dissent with their former parties are that either they're former Blairites (i.e. right-wingers) who lost out to the Corbynistas, or they're pro-EU tories, which does not necessarily make them nice people (they include austerity supporters and homophobes among their number). Add an offshore shell company and opaque sources of funding and I'm wondering if they're not just another goddamn billionaire-bankrolled attempt to keep Labour from forming a government at the next election, crewed by self-deluding Useful Idiots (in the Leninist sense of the word) who will be disposed of after they lose their parliamentary seats.

    As for the minimal representation of green politics - partly that's the British electoral system ensuring the actual Green party never gets any seats

    Except in Scotland, where they hold the balance of power in Holyrood and thus the SNP minority government is forced to periodically throw them some red meat raw tofu. This, in my opinion, is a Good Thing: I'm not sure I'd want to see a Green Party administration with full control over all aspects of government at this point, but giving them an effective veto over environmentally damaging policies is useful. (Disclaimer: I am a paid-up member of the Scottish Green Party.)

    648:

    I suspect internal politics more than fear. If the culture at the ministry is such that "Hard decisions" are seen as justifying retention and promotions, the most negative decisions will be encouraged. The worst thing about conservatism may be allowing assholes to fly their freak flag openly.

    649:

    They definitely advanced the science of powered flight, they realised they needed to understand what the airflow over a wing did, they built and tested prototypes...

    People remember controlled powered flight, and the control difficulties were under-appreciated at the time, but as pointed out it was steam engine time and someone was going to put all the pieces together not very long after the turn of the century.

    The wind tunnel is not as obviously useful as the airplane, did not have many people trying to make one, and yet is very important if one wants to make aircraft. The Wrights may or may not have thought up the idea on their own but before them there had been few or none outside Europe. Doubting the accuracy of the accepted value of the Smeaton coefficient turned out to be a good idea too.

    650:

    I speculate that what's really needed on the ISS, in order to do controlled experiments, is a rotating dormitory. It doesn't have to be large: think in terms of an inflatable torus with a tube providing an internal diameter of about 1 metre, rotating around a hub with radius of maybe 5 metres. (In other words, a big-ass truck tire.) The torus is somewhere astronauts can sleep lying oriented along the equator of the donut, and is spun to provide whatever local gravity is required. Yes, coriolis-induced vertigo is a thing, but is likely to be minimized if they're constrained to lying in a sleeping bag most of the time: meanwhile we get to do identical twin studies where twin A is an astronaut who gets to sleep in microgravity in the ISS proper, and twin B gets to bunk in the one-third gee rotating basement. We can even do crossover trials on 6 month or 12 month long-duration missions where A and B swap roles halfway through.

    For a bonus we can also use the centrifuge for animal/plant experiments, specifically to research how much gravity is needed for embryo development.

    Main issue: development of an airlock/hub with a rotating coupling that can compensate for some degree of off-axis load shifting and run for years at a time without excessive atmosphere loss or danger of catastrophic failure. Bonus points for some kind of gyro coupling to counteract shifts in load distribution inside the centrifuge ring, and to soak up momentum in event that it's necessary to perform a hard shutdown on the centrifuge (e.g. because a bearing is acting up and it's in danger of seizing—we don't want a failure mode where an astronaut is trapped in the centrifuge or the centrifuge dumps its angular momentum into the structure of the ISS).

    NASA probably has design studies on this sort of thing going back decades but life sciences are so totally not-sexy that the budget to fly an uncrewed test article (essential before docking the real thing to the ISS) is simply out of reach.

    I will note that using gyros to spin up/spin down momentum on a stabilized platform in space is decades-old technology—it's how the Hubble telescope keeps pointing in the right direction. So the only really new stuff I'm asking for is a toroidal (rather than spherical/cylindrical) BEAM-type expanding module, and a rotating airlock coupling with a central aperture big enough for an astronaut to squeeze through—say, 50cm diameter—and some form of passive air circulation for the tire.

    651:

    In general, yes, but that is maligning Heidi Allen - she has spoken up several times against 'austerity' and its abuses, in very strong terms.

    652:

    Or a Unionist conspiracy to rob the SNP of Westminster third-party status and further sideline Independence. They just need another 26 barrel-scraped back-bench useful idiots from the two main English parties to deprive the SNP of funding, facilities, a presence at Question Time and automatic inclusion in TV debates.

    654:

    You'd probably be better off going the Discovery (2001 Space Odyssey version) route and having the rotating element contained in a stationary pressurised hull. That eliminates the need for an airtight bearing and a contra rotating mass section takes care of spin up and down. Drag from the atmosphere would mean you'd need a motor running most of the time to keep the spin rate constant, but that could also be used to adjust as crew enter and leave.

    655:

    Note the part about biological specimens being less than 0.62m tall and the bit in the user guide mentioning "small animals up to the size of rats".

    I don't think the vibration issues were completely solved and contributed to the decision not to fly it.

    656:

    Oh dear ... So you are in favour of Brexit, rather than let these people at least make an attempt to stop it? Or what? Yes, they are part of the Beige, but given the alternatives are either Corbyn's or May/Farrago's forms of Brexit extremism, I would have thought this was a no-brainer.

    657:

    What I'd like to see is: the UK stays in the EU, but adopts internal constitutional reform such that Scotland effectively gets DevoMax—full fiscal autonomy within a federal framework, with taxes remitted to a central UK-wide government for shared responsibility items like defense/diplomacy.

    That ain't gonna happen, though. (No Westminster party will countenance it.) It might be offered as a negotiable option in event of a referendum on full Scottish independence delivering a "Leave" majority, but otherwise that pig is on final approach into Heathrow with an engine under each wing.

    Given the extent to which Scotland is actively sabotaged by Westminster governments, yes, I'd rather see Scotland as an autonomous state within the EU than as a battered spouse in a union dominated by the likes of the European Research Group and outside the EU. Put it another way: Scotland in the EU/out of the UK would tend over time towards the same relationship with the UK that Ireland has (cultural—ahem—history, shared land border). If it's not so bad for Ireland, why would it be bad for Scotland in the long term?

    Yes, the initial economic dislocation would be enormous … but we're getting that anyway, thanks to the fucking no-deal Brexit cliff-edge we're being dragged towards.

    I am adamantly opposed to leaving the EU, but I think the Independence chancers are a dangerous distraction at best and a fifth column at worst.

    658:

    I speculate that what's really needed on the ISS, in order to do controlled experiments, is a rotating dormitory.

    Step 1: launch a large torus into orbit, probably on the space shuttle Step 2: spin it up without endangering the orientation of the ISS solar panels or radiators, which, if you've ever watcher a time lapse of the ISS, rotate quite a bit over the course of every orbit to keep the place powered up and not overheating. Step 3: make sure the seals hold on the rotating section, given that all the astronauts are right next to this all-important seal and it has to be near the center of mass to keep the ISS from doing the hokey-pokey.

    You'd think that all the extremely clever NASA engineers would have figured this out, given that space boffos have been talking about rotating stations since Arthur Clarke in the 1940s, no? Possibly the engineering challenges are a wee bit nontrivial?

    If you want to study the long term effects of freefall on humans, possibly the simplest way to do it is to put them into freefall for a long time and teach them how to run medical experiments on themselves? Heck, you can even run an identical twin experiment if you happen to have twin astronauts to see what the long-term effects are.

    659:
    I think the Independence chancers are a dangerous distraction at best and a fifth column at worst

    Another thing… they're not actually a party yet. They're not registered with the Electoral Commission.

    Why not I wonder?

    One reason might be that until they register they don’t have to provide quarterly reports on donations and loans, check they’re from permissible source, report large donations & loans to the electoral commission, etc. etc.

    I'm sure they have donors providing cash. They’re spending money as a group on things like websites, PR, etc. And, AFAIK, until they get to election time they can do all that with no oversight at the organisational level. Because they don’t have to register as a party or a joint campaign until they plan to spend £££ in the regulated period around an election.

    I am, perhaps, overly cynical… but many of the MPs jumping to the IG don’t strike me as the sort that would risk political suicide and a £77k salary without their being a medium-term plan and the cash to back it up. The fact I can’t see that during the current brexit chaos makes me feel… hinky…

    There is, I think, a loophole here in the electoral commission framework. It’s not set up for a large group of party MPs becoming independents and organising together mid-term. As individuals they'll get the independent MP oversight, but The Independent Group gets none until election time (unless I'm missing something.)

    At the moment it’s all hidden behind “Gemini A Ltd” — and beyond that being a limited company run by Shuker with offices above a Spoons near Manchester we know nowt.

    It’s not like this has been done in a rush — the Ltd company was registered more than a month ago…

    660:

    Actually, I doubt DevoMax would help - the sabotage would continue, without even the sop of more favourable funding from Whitehall/Westminster. To a great extent, they are orthogonal issues. It's not as if the sabotage is particularly directed to Scotland - several English regions have it worse. In fact, I am not sure that even full independence would help much, at least in the terms of a couple of decades.

    But I agree that the way that the UK is currently heading looks worse :-(

    661:

    Again, Heidi Allen is potentially an oddball. She is one of the few that might well be able to stand as an independent, and win, and said that she is "sitting with the Independent group". We shall see.

    662:

    "The Independent Group" looks like a think-tank, a comfy slot for well-connected right-wingers to gather and get paid for being well-connected right-wingers, with funding being somewhat vaporous and ill-defined. My first thought seeing images of the press conference when it was first announced was "that podium sign cost a few quid and would take at least a week to make from when the order was placed".

    The Traitorous Eight do face a legal problem though, the Register of Members Interests. Either they cough up details of any payments they are receiving and who from and what they do to earn it then they face criminal charges. They could resign their seats of course and avoid all that public scrutiny but that would rather obviate their usefulness to whoever is bankrolling this little escapade.

    663:

    living/sleeping/laboratory space during a multi-month to multi-year voyage

    NASA has done a number of studies on how big long-duration habitats need to be. A recent one was

    https://ston.jsc.nasa.gov/collections/trs/_techrep/TM-2015-218564.pdf
    Minimum Acceptable Net Habitable Volume for Long-Duration Exploration Missions

    And, for a six-person Mars expedition, it concluded

    Based on the characteristics and parameters of the exploration class mission defined in Mars DRM 5.0(Drake, 2009), the [experts]s, with concurrence of the NASA representatives, recommended a minimum acceptable NHV of 25m3 (883 ft3) per person.

    One might note that the Orion capsule has a total habitable volume of a smidgen under 9 m3 total for four people, 2.25 m3 per person vs the recommended minimum of 25.

    https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/fs-2014-08-004-jsc-orion_quickfacts-web.pdf

    664:

    EC @ 660 just for once: several English regions have it worse Yes - no Barnett Formula for them.

    Nojay @ 662 Stop it - this lot are NOT "right-wingers ... that's Farrago & Rees-Smaug & the entire "ERG" Not that it bothers you, since you obviously want Corbyn's version of Brexit, yes? You assume, with no evidence, that this is financial with no actual interest in the country remaining in the EU?

    665:

    Minimum Acceptable Net Habitable Volume for Long-Duration Exploration Missions

    BTW, the study included a notional 150 m3 habitable volume, ah, habitat for six marsonauts having a pressurized volume in the form of a right circular cylinder 12.7 meters long by 4.8 meters in diameter. That gives a ratio of habitable volume to pressurized volume of 0.65, which seems intuitively reasonable.

    666:

    Regarding China peaking, here is the data I was looking at , suggest setting the start date at around 2000 to see the story

    Note it’s progressively harder to maintain high % growth but China needs to do that for many more years if it wants to get into a truly dominant position such as the US enjoyed for most of the 20th century

    One of the reasons why I think we will end up with a multi polar polar structure

    https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth

    667:

    That gives a ratio of habitable volume to pressurized volume of 0.65, which seems intuitively reasonable.

    A point about that is that this was a ~zero-g habitat with 3-D living spaces. A rotating habitat with ~2-D living spaces would have to analyzed with that in mind.

    668:

    I am so fucking tired of hearing - in the US - the extreme right talking about "the extreme left".

    Speaking as a red diaper baby, and a member of the DSA, "far left" to me means anarchists and maybe Communists.

    Tell me: is Momentum pushing for renationalizing Britrail? Are they pushing renationalizing anything?

    Here in the US, I want to freakin' nationalize a) heathcare b) the pharmaceutical industry [1] c) re-fully-naionalizing the Post Office [2] d) fully nationalized Amtrak e) offering any "contractor" who's been at the same job > 3 years federal employment.[3]

    I only see talk of the first.

  • 60%? 80% of all basic biomedical and bioscientific research in the US - colleges, hospitals, etc, run on grants from the NIH (yes, tax dollars).
  • I consider the semi-privatizing of it to te both illegal and unConstitutional, since the Post Office is a Uniformed Service of the US, and they swear the Oath.
  • I've been doing the same job for coming up on 10 years; a co-worker is coming on 27. We're employees of federal contractors. Benefits comparable, salary comparable... but tax dollars pay loading to our contracts for my manager's time, their manager's time, and on up, as well as a profit for the company. REAL saving of tax dollars there....
  • 669:

    You mean the three Tories who recently voted that they had confidence in the Government led by Theresa May aren't right-wingers? Colour me surprised. As for the five ex-Labour Party members, well I've only heard one of them (on the radio) and he spat out the word "Marxist" when describing his ex-colleagues like a true-blue Conservative might. He might have missed those all times at the Labour Party conference when they all held hands and sang "The Red Flag" or maybe he didn't think it applied to him and he just "tum tee tummed" along.

    670:

    What's wrong with sending up a kit?

    And I, personally, along with my late wife, built an 8'x8' deck, with a 4' deep storage unit under it, out the kitchen door on the immobile home we had.

    Oh, sorry, I mean the 8'x12' deck...um, er, the 12'x16' deck, I mean, the roofed, screened-in porch, sigh, I mean the 12'x16' room, insulated, with 7 storm windows, wired for electricity (meeting local code) and a free-standing fireplace that we built. (And google satellite and street view show me it's still standing, though I know it was professional reroofed in '99, 10 years after we built it.

    And "forget parts"? Did you ever read how, a century ago, you could buy a kit house from the Sears Catalog, heavy freight delivery, some assembly required?

    671:

    snicker

    Ah, yes, RFNA/hydrazine. The advantage of which is that you don't need to ignite them, because they're hypergols.

    As my late ex used to tell me, when she first interviewed at the Cape, the interviewer asked her how she felt about working with hypergols. She asked him what that was, and his response was "two deadly chemicals that explode on contact." She said she got the job, because she was the only one who didn't run out of the room screaming.

    I did mention she was crazy, right?

    672:

    About biomedical research, since I know one or two things.

    Yes, NIH sponsors a vast majority of basic research. Last I heard, somewhere around 1 in 2000 discoveries made it through "the valley of death" to become a marketed drug. That's why big pharma keeps killing off their research arms: the payout's too low for the investment. They'd rather wait until some researcher is confident enough to start a company around a discovery, at which point they buy that company. That saves on costs around round 1 of the Valley of Death (getting something off the lab bench and into patient trials). Indeed, it's so hard to get from lab results to patient studies that there are charities that specialize in funding this work, to get promising treatments for target diseases to the point where they can begin human trials.

    Then there's the cost of patient trials. They're already done globally, using the cheapest labor available for each stage of the process, which is why a lot of human trials are done in places like India, not the US. Anyway, this costs in the hundreds of millions of dollars, and from what I heard, around 75% of that cost is salaries and labor. Running human trials is not cheap. Big Pharma companies specialize in this part of the process, when they're not leveraging "me too" drugs and all the other games to avoid a billion-dollar process on an untested drug.

    So where would I cut costs? Simple: control the costs of generic drugs, probably by making the government the major purchaser and middle-being. Second, make it harder to take drugs off the generic list once they go on. Third, introduce legislation to severely curtail the marketing budgets of Big Pharma. Marketing in the US is on order one-third the cost of any new drug, so doing away with the marketing of drugs will cut costs (thank you, US Supreme Court, for making this so lucrative, you a*holes). Finally, treat addiction as a disease under public health rules, and go after anyone who spreads the disease, legally or illegally. I'm looking at the opioid manufacturers here. While I can sympathize with capitalists trying to make money off of "loyal customers" to drugs they need to take for the rest of their lives (like statins), I'm far less sympathetic to firms that try to force loyalty through addiction. The latter needs government intervention, IMHO.

    673:

    1940s vintage RFNA/hydrazine,

    1950s, actually. You've read the hilarious "Ignition!" book by John D. Clark after all. Before that they were using stuff like high-test peroxide (as in the British Black Arrow missile/launcher) and other odd combinations -- the bit in the book about testing butyl mercaptan as a possible rocket fuel because they could get it for free from the oil industry is incredibly funny.

    "Listen, bud!" said the slightly drunk rocket engineer. "I've burned more alcohol in ten seconds than you've ever sold across this lousy bar!" Arthur C. Clarke, attrib.

    674:

    Heteromeles: An issue with this issue of sealing the rotating section against a non rotating one is that it commits the sin in space schemes in that it suffers from excessive purism: As in, the module that provides the synthetic gravity is a thing in it's own right, and so the connection to the sero-g part is also the route that you ensure cabin pressurisation.

    It is surely easier to employ a division of labour in that we construct a rotating centrifuge inside a fixed pressure structure. At the end of the day, it is simply a rotating internal surface, after all. Arthur C. Clarke illustrated this with the Discovery. It simply shifts the rotating part idea to the interior of the ship, however.

    The inertial mass of the rotating component is then controlled by having a second habitat that rotates in the opposite direction, or a water drum upon some kind of gearbox that serves as a counterweight. (We're going to need stored water after all.)

    Arguably to maintain condition and biological priorities upon a mission, all you need is a sanity space where you can do all these normal Terrestrial things, including use the toilet, eat and sleep.

    In Clarke's design, the Discovery features an internal seal to the living space, but it doesn't follow that you need this for a truly basic, bare bones function like sleeping, eating or going to the toilet. You could have smaller chambers that sealed against outside light prevent visual disorientation, and you also don't need one gravity, you also just need enough gravity to make any process you need to do vaguely sane.

    It would be a whole set of big chunky pods that take up VOLUME in a fixed overall pressure structure, but as Stross points out with the Bigelow inflatables and the ideas for the wet workshop, volumes in micro gravity are not the issue in space, payload launch volumes are. Using the ET has so many issues attached to it that it is impractical.

    675:

    Re: Micro gravity torus

    One of the ideas that keeps cropping up is for NASA to snag and drag an asteroid and build a station/satellite on it. If the asteroid is largish it might also provide more gravity than a spinning artificial torus.

    https://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/nasa-to-snag-a-near-earth-asteroid/

    Re: Govt-Pharma's 'Equal Partnership'

    Interesting partnership: Gov't gets 95% of the costs and Pharma gets 95% of the profits*.

    • Tax avoidance schemes/havens reduce effective pharma tax rates** to almost nothing, interesting given that typical margins in Pharma have been over 90% for decades. Also, patents are being extended for quite a few pharma products thanks to some imaginative re-writes within the past 10-20 years, e.g., if ANY new use/indication is discovered, the patent can be renewed (like new) to cover not just that new indication but ALL indications. Some firms deliberately sat on 'new' indications right up to the original patent expiration date. Why this hasn't been contested - no idea - given that new indications were published in such obscure journals as Science, Nature, Lancet, NEJM, BMJ, etc.

    ** Law suit settlements and fines come above the tax line - therefore reducing effective cost to that org by a whopping margin. (Half wondering whether these items are sometimes charged off as R&D thereby qualify for gov't matched funding. Would fit with the creativity displayed by some of these outfits.)

    676:

    "...individually they're despicable neoliberal/xenophobic ass-hats... they include austerity supporters and homophobes among their number..."

    Fair enough - as I've mentioned before I get most of my news input by using the people around me as a filter, rather than following news outlets myself; while I have heard such criticisms of them elsewhere, it has been from people who I would expect to have a visceral antipathy towards the new group anyway for supporting Remain and not supporting Corbyn, and who I do not trust to have necessarily given such claims adequate critical appraisal before passing them on. Therefore I did not consider them reliable enough to include in my own post.

    It was trivial to conclude that they weren't going to get my vote, as they are reoccupying the political ground that I've so long been sick of the lack of an alternative to. And the one point on which I do definitely agree with them will have ceased to be relevant by the time any question of voting for them or not may arise.

    I'm not convinced they're a conspiracy to prevent Labour getting in though. I think that by the time they become votable they'll have lost an important factor in their ability to attract voters from Labour, but will not have been so disadvantaged in attracting votes from people on the right who think Corbyn is Cthulhu and would never have voted Labour anyway but don't want to vote Tory any more either after they've made such a bleeding mess of things.

    Getting big things into orbit - the Bigelow thingy is a heck of a lot smaller than a shuttle tank! Internal volume of 16m3 for Bigelow vs. over 2000m3 for a shuttle tank (and apparently about 1000m3 for the ISS); OK, you could make a bigger one, but it looks as if one comparable in (inflated) size with a shuttle tank would also have much the same mass, and still be big enough deflated to not fit in anything that could launch it. Also, it's bendy, which isn't so good for bolting things to. So I don't think it helps all that much...

    677:

    The Bigelow BEAM module on the ISS is a proof-of-concept/test article.

    What you really want is the B330/Nautilus module, with 330m^3 interior volume plus radiation/micrometeorite protection (unlike a shuttle tank) and can be launched on Atlas V (or ULA's in-development Vulcan next-generation launcher: I'm guessing Falcon Heavy would also be an option).

    Three B330s docked end-to-end would have more habitable volume than the whole of the ISS, if that's what you're shooting for, despite weighing about a fifth as much.

    678:

    "Tell me: is Momentum pushing for renationalizing Britrail? Are they pushing renationalizing anything?"

    Oh yes. It's one of their bigger points. Renationalising the railways is particularly popular, although I think a lot of people have unrealistic expectations of immediate and large reductions in fares and will be disappointed when there is (as I expect) very little change. What I want to see is the end to the ridiculous tangle of interlocking contractors and compensation payments and penalty clauses and devices to protect the profits of companies who'd run a mile if the government wasn't sandboxing the whole thing, which as well as using large amounts of public funds to subsidise private companies makes any kind of change such a nightmare of juggling interests that everything takes ten years and costs military amounts of money.

    679:

    What I want to see is the end to the ridiculous tangle of interlocking

    Despite not having been to Aotearoa since it was introduced, I somehow have an Auckland public transport prepaid card. I also have one for Sydney and another for Melbourne. Well, actually, I have two each of the latter. The Oz ones are great because the issuers have given up tracking everyone and have settled for just tracking people who like to be tracked, so you can buy them with cash if you want (rather than cash plus identification).

    In classic #firstworldproblem, while I love those cards dearly I would quite like one per country if not just one.

    680:

    Re: Corp fines - actually paid

    See below for reference because it's kinda hard to believe:

    https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/how-80-billion-in-coporate-fines-can-become-48-billion-in-tax-breaks/

    Brexiters might be hoping that once they exit the EU that they (and puppeteer orgs) will be able to pull the same scam. Not only does EU not allow this, it's been looking into plugging other tax holes.

    https://techcrunch.com/2018/09/18/apple-has-finished-paying-15-billion-european-fine/

    'Apple has finished wiring billions of euros to pay back illegal tax benefits to the Irish government according to Reuters. Overall, Apple has paid $15.3 billion (€13.1 billion) for the original fine as well as $1.4 billion (€1.2 billion) in interests.'

    681:

    Yep, poofy, fuzzy spacecraft are the wave of the future. In this case, fuzzy means having the outside of the inflatable covered with an aerogel or fuzz that approximates a whipple shield as an anti-micrometeor defense. Set it up right so that the fuzz is extruded from the inside and it could be a regenerating whipple shield.

    682:

    I hate to rain on everyone's parade, but how does the radiation shielding work on one of those?

    683:

    Nojay Oh dear Anyone to the right of Corbyn is a nasty right-winger? THAT is how to guarantee a tory guvmint, dominated by Rees-Smaug. ANd you didn't answer my point about Corbyn wanting a hard Brexit - or for that matter being permanently anti_EU

    Pigeon @ 678 Actually the track opf the railways IS nationalised & the TOC's are very micro-managed 7 guess who - fucking Grayling is in charge, except he hodes behind figleaves. It's an utter mess. And it's complicated - so not right now - OK?

    684:

    Tangentially related to public transport and bribing selected marginal seats....

    NSW Nationals (Tories) just promised rural wrinklies a 250 dollar public transport gift card, (Vote for us!)

    685:

    According to the wiki page Charlie linked above about the B330, “Bigelow also claims that the module provides radiation protection equivalent to, and ballistic protection superior to, the International Space Station.”

    Unless you mean the space shuttle external tanks, which I’d have thought are now pretty defunct?

    686:

    ...how does the radiation shielding work on one of those?

    Comparable to the rest of the station, apparently. Quoth Wikipedia: "Early results from monitors inside the module have shown that galactic cosmic radiation levels are comparable to those in the rest of the space station. Further testing will try to characterize whether the inflatable structure is any more resilient to radiation than traditional metal modules."

    The company is keeping the exact details of 'how' to themselves but are forthcoming about the 'what,' which is a reasonable stance for them.

    687:

    galactic cosmic radiation levels are comparable to those in the rest of the space station

    Probably because, IIRC, galactic cosmic radiation comes in rarely but with particles carrying multiple GeV of energy, and blocking it properly requires a metre-thick blanket of water, or maybe a planetary atmosphere.

    So the proportion of galactic cosmic radiation stopped by the BEM and the regular ISS modules is roughly the same as the proportion of bullets stopped by a sheet of paper.

    688:

    NSW Nationals (Tories) just promised rural wrinklies a 250 dollar public transport gift card

    Agrarian socialism for me, austerity for thee?

    Although given what else is happening it's more likely "we're all corrupt together, right?" Quiggin has started making a list but in comments apparently the bought media did the obvious and asked every single Liberal MP if they'd benefited and only got 14 noes. Ooops.

    https://johnquiggin.com/2019/02/19/scandal-3/

    689:

    ANd you didn't answer my point about Corbyn wanting a hard Brexit

    Well, because he doesn't? What he keeps saying time after time after time is to repeat the 2018 Labour Party Conference's agreed position on Brexit -- six tests, close cooperation and alignment with the EU markets etc. etc. What the right-wing press keep saying and gullible people keep falling for is that Jeremy Corbyn is a totally anti-EU super-Marxist who thinks the ERG don't go far enough. One is reality, the other is delusion but it's a delusion that pays off for lots of rich folks if they can get enough people to repeat it without thinking.

    He's a popularly-elected left-wing/socialist leader of the left-wing/socialist Labour Party who's got this weird idea that Party conference decisions actually mean something and should be at least taken into account when setting policy for the Opposition. Then again unlike the assorted NuLab Blairite MPs who blithely ignore conference decisions to further their own political ambitions he thinks that Labour's history and connections with working people and the unions means something in this Brave New dog-eat-dog PFI/PPE/PLP World.

    (It also helps that he was never a Home Secretary. There's something about that Cabinet position that either destroys a person's soul or they never had one in the first place to hinder their decision to take the job.)

    690:

    It also helps that he was never a Home Secretary. There's something about that Cabinet position that either destroys a person's soul or they never had one in the first place

    Hell, yes.

    The only exceptions I can think of are the late Lord Jenkins of Hillhead (Home Secretary Dec 1965-Nov-1967, during which time he ended capital punishment[*], abolished corporal punishment, decriminalized abortion, and modernized a bunch of other stuff) and Sir Robert Peel (Home Secretary 1822-1830, with a 1 year gap, during which time he abolished the bloody code and invented modern community policing).

    That the exceptions come at roughly one century intervals and the average tenure in the job is about 2-3 years is rather telling.

    [*] Abolition: as in, stopped all executions and took it off the books for murder, leaving treason/piracy/arson in the royal dockyards as vestigial remnants which were tidied up later. Oh, and homosexuality was partially decriminalized in England and Wales on his watch, thanks to David Steele's work.

    691:

    Yes, but it got badly worse with bloody Howard. Previously, no others that I can think of were on the side of the angels, but afterwards the devil had a monopoly of their souls. I can't remember which was in office when the disgraceful first change to UK residence laws for British subjects was made (w.r.t. the Ugandan asians), but Wilson was definitely the main one to blame.

    692:

    Nojay I don't believe him - as simple as that. He was against joining the EU in the first place & is repeatedly on record as follwing the Wedgie-Benn line on same, that it's a corrupt employers' ramp. His apparent refusal to DO something about antisemitism & his cuddling up to some very unpleasant people doesn't help, either. [ NOTE: I am not excusing other people, from other parties also cuddling up to other unpleasant peoples - tu quoque does not apply, ok? ]

    693:

    Well, Idi Amin expelled the Ugandan Asians in 1972 (based on date of order), which suggests they were received here in 1972-'75, and in order across that period, the incumbents in post were Reginald Maudling, Robert Carr and Roy Jenkins.

    694:

    For radiation shielding you actually want a lot of hydrogen, that's why you often hear the idea of surrounding a shelter with water tanks for protection on manned spacecraft. The exterior of inflatable habitats is made up of many layers of assorted plastics, hydrocarbon compounds, which tend to work better than metal hulls which can give rise to secondary radiation when hit by cosmic rays.

    695:

    What's wrong with sending up a kit?

    And "forget parts"? Did you ever read how, a century ago, you could buy a kit house from the Sears Catalog, heavy freight delivery, some assembly required?

    Nothing. But the some assembly required IN ZERO G IN A VACUUM is where things get really really hard. Plus this was about using fuel tanks. So do you cut the end off or ahead of time make a big door at each end that does nothing but add weight and complexity to the use as a fuel tank.

    And those Sears kids did NOT include everything. Especially not tools. And the result would be considered very substandard by today's expectations.

    I'm sorry but TO ME you seem to be using handwavium to get past the difficult bits.

    696:

    Hmmm. Totally off topic.

    Just looking out my window through the trees with no leaves and notices the high voltage lines running in front of my house each have a lump on them what looks like an stubby antenna poking vertically out one end. This is a 3 phase loop from the substation that covers a few 1000 homes. Maybe a few 10,000. Lumps are about the size of a shoe box. Maybe smaller.

    Any idea of what these are?

    697:

    It's a Wireless Powerline Sensor, normally a current monitor, and datalogger, sometimes environmental monitoring as well.

    698:

    Roy Jenkins was HomeSec for about 4 months during that period, so my money's on Carr or Maudling.

    699:

    If I recall, it was towards the end of Obote's first term, so it would have been Callaghan. But only if my memory of that is correct, and I am not at all certain! I do remember with disgust that Wilson was definitely the main culprit. Looking through my old passports doesn't help, as the British Citizen status was introduced after 1975 which was definitely much later than the change.

    700:

    I'm still coming up with '72 to '75, at least partly because I definitely remember one of the deportees' children being the first Asian I ever met, and him appearing part-way through the 1974-'75 school year (UK in case people don't remember me bring Scottish).

    Beyond that I remember the deportation crisis itself, but not the actual time of the deportations.

    701:

    You could be right, though Amin was originally welcomed by both Ugandan asians and the international community because he wasn't that shit, Obote. "Obote's persecution of Indian traders contributed to this rise in prices." I am still going for c. 1969, based both on that and on other personal recollections that would take too long to explain.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_Obote

    Specifically, it was the change made to the rules I was referring to. previously, when colonies were given independence, the 'non-native ancestry' residents were given the option of whether to keep a British passport, and many did so (including several of my relatives), as a safety net in case things went sour. But, when the Ugandan problem started (whether it was c. 1969 or later), and there was racialist media hysteria, the government claimed there was never any intention of letting them come to the UK - which was a lie and a disgrace.

    702:

    If the NIH and HHS (which it's part of) was set up to develop and produce drugs, the costs would go way down.

    Excerpt: The wholesale price in the developing world is about US$1.70 to $3.40 per course of treatment.[9] In the United States a course of treatment is more than $200. --- end excerpt ---

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quinine

    Oh, the costs help fund other research (yeah, right, and the CEO and other chief exec's salaries and bonuses).

    You did follow the story of PharmaBro, right?

    Hell, you could probably save close to $100M/yr by having it US gov't produced, with the managers all on GS salaries.

    Related story: back in the mid-eighties, there was a story in... the Inquirer (legit newspaper in Philly), I think, about how the Pentagon had people develop an easily-carried antitank weapon, an updated bazooka. They build it for something like $78.00, yes, seventy-eight dollars. The contract went out, and what the contracting company came up with was a) much heavier, b) would only be useful against Soviet tanks of the previous generation, and c) cost about $780 each.

    703:

    Can't remember if it was 2012, or back in the nineties on usenet, but I proposed a NASA mission to drago asteroid Toutatis to orbit, and give us a real base in orbit (I'd put it at 25k mi, with a lot of benefits.)

    704:

    I would really hope the fares go down. The one and only time I've been off this damn continent was for Loncon in '14, and I wanted to ride Britrail... but for my ex, my stepson (16 at the time) and me was more than an airfare, on the cheapest rate (7/14, I think).

    Renting a car was about a third the price, dammit.

    I remember when my late wife and I were going to make Glasgow in '95 - we wound up buying a house instead - that Britrail had a great offer... which INCLUDED a bicycle when we wanted to use them.

    705:

    Which is my, in my plan for a Wheel station, it would be double-hulled, with water in between. That not only protects against radiation, but balances the rotation, say, when everyone runs to one side of the station to look out the porthole....

    706:

    That is an invalid argument.

    A century-ago Sears kit house "would not meet modern expectations". Really? Whay, because it didn't include Cat-6 cabing? Or ductwork for forced-air HVAC? Or conduit and 20-amp wire and a 200W breaker box?

    707:

    Off-topic*, but I'm wondering if anyone has read this book, and if so what they think?

    https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/586541/the-uninhabitable-earth-by-david-wallace-wells/9780525576709/

    Frank especially, as it looks like it may be similar to Hot Earth Dreams.

    *Or not, as both Death and Deadlines seem implicit in the contents…

    708:

    Ooo, sloshy. I seem to recall that pumps in freefall have all sorts of interesting issues that those on Earth do not? Problems with air bubbles and surface tension?

    I agree that water and polyethylene are good radiation insulators, but there's something to be said for keeping them in a stable position.

    As for spinning up the living quarters, there are a couple of general problems. One is that it's an effin' big gyroscope, so you get all the fun and games of having a heavy gyroscope attached to a swiftly moving object. If we're talking about a space station, that gyroscope is going to want to keep in a single orientation, no matter where the station is in orbit. That makes it a bit more interesting to keep the huge solar array pointed towards the sun, and the radiators to stay in the shade (for example, watch the panels here). And if the habitation wheel starts precessing due to uneven loading, well that gets even more interesting, as does the situation where the hab wheel is not at the center of mass, so it starts torquing the station around. Fun stuff all the way around, especially when the wheel is mounted, not to a huge bearing with lots of structure, but to the track around a tube that the astronauts go through to go to the sections of the station that are in drop. I'm sure keeping that track sealed against the outside vacuum will be a trivial problem, even with the effects of heating and cooling.

    On a moving spaceship, it gets even more interesting, because the spinning hab module is almost certainly is not at the center of mass. Course corrections with the wheel spun up are going to be fun, especially if they are rapid (as in dodging an oncoming debris chunk).

    709:

    It's on my list to read. Hopefully it's got something new and different.

    710:

    IF you want truly daft, years ago I was playing with the following notion:

    Start with a complex version of a Zubrin/Andrews Magsail, that's more like a spiderweb than a simple loop of Magic Wire (that magic wire would have to be superconducting and have many of the properties of an orbital beanstalk, so we're definitely in the Graphene Sandwich/Ceramic Superconductor/Handwavium part of the manufacturing spectrum). Anyway, instead of having one spacecraft centered with the magsail around it, have a bunch of spacecraft riding the main ring, balanced out and rotating so that they keep the sail stretched, providing centrifugal force in the spacecraft, and not wobbling too much. The point here is to use the complicated geometry of magsail and its combined fields to try to keep the majority of nasty charged particles and such away from the spacecraft. The ships could be launched individually, hook up in orbit, spool out their sail, spin up and take off. While riding a shuttle between the individual spacecraft riding onto the sail would be a high energy/high anxiety trip (pray there's not a solar flare while you're halfway between ships), the nice thing is that, with a properly designed, web-like sail (heh heh), space debris could take out one of the ships, and if the others could rebalance and mend the sail, they could keep going.

    Now it's fun to imagine the sail as a nice, stable object, but my guess is that the sail lines would vibrate a fair amount. Considering how many kilometers across this thing would have to be, one could only hope that lateral vibrations would be no worse than one might experience riding an orbital beanstalk. At least the humans on board could have simulated gravity, even if there was some shaking now and then.

    Combine a webbed magsail with inflatable spaceships, and well, it would be one of the weirder spaceship designs out there, no?

    711:

    Re: NASA - asteroids

    Taking them a while, but they're doing something similar to your idea.

    https://www.nasa.gov/content/what-is-nasa-s-asteroid-redirect-mission

    Excerpt:

    'NASA is developing a first-ever robotic mission to visit a large near-Earth asteroid, collect a multi-ton boulder from its surface, and redirect it into a stable orbit around the moon. Once it’s there, astronauts will explore it and return with samples in the 2020s. This Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM) is part of NASA’s plan to advance the new technologies and spaceflight experience needed for a human mission to the Martian system in the 2030s.'

    712:

    There are pumps that will have trouble, but there are others that should not; I cannot think of any reason why a pump that can handle turbulence and work in any position and/or being rotated should.

    Sloshing can be solved with baffles, though I am not sure how well they would work with partly full tanks in free fall.

    You pretty obviously have to align the spin with the orbit, which I agree will need some correction because of the variation in lunar and solar gravity, and keep the solar collector separate.

    713:

    I cannot think of any reason why a pump that can handle turbulence and work in any position and/or being rotated should.

    Pumps and associated plumbing for handling gasses, aerosols, fluids, slurries, foams, suspensions and such in zero g are among the things needed in a long-duration, mostly autonomous ECLSS(*) that it would be really nice to test in a full-duration DEMVAL before flinging a crew out to Mars and beyond.

    My favorite fantasy about this is a two-year mission of 4 to 6 people in an autonomous habitat at EML2. You could keep an Orion or similar parked nearby to rescue them if the habitat didn't perform as expected. If the two-year mission went well, it would give some confidence in doing at least a minimal Mars trip.

    Of course, as I think OGH has intimated above, nobody yet has provided much indication of an adult approach to interplanetary travel, so testing out the things necessary for such are, in fact, in the realm of fantasy.

    (*) https://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/history/eclss.html

    714:

    Might be worth thinking of a guest post (if Charlie was agreeable)? You could do an author's retrospective of HED, review this as a later example of the genre, etc…

    715:

    I cannot think of any reason why a pump that can handle turbulence and work in any position and/or being rotated should.

    I'd just like to note at this point that SpaceX are now regularly retrieving and landing Falcon 9 first stages, which basically consist of big-ass largely-empty tanks of liquid, and which require pitch/roll/yaw maneuvers in free fall including orientation burns before they can fire up their main motor as a retro-rocket.

    I suspect they could tell you a lot about how to maneuver big tanks of liquid in microgravity ...

    716:

    To the extent that both stages of the BFR have internal header tanks for the landing fuel. One day I'll get round to going through a few SpaceX launch videos to try and spot if there's sudden lurches as the first stage flips around after stage separation due to fuel slopping round.

    717:

    One other thing about interplanetary spaceship design that we generally get wrong: long duration ships are going to have to be mostly hydroponics farms, probably akin to these things, which are converted freight containers. I'm used to this notion, because I did a lot of research in a university greenhouse that was mostly greenhouses with a smallish office space in the middle. Instead, most of a spaceship likely will be lit pink, with small areas of normal lighting for crew quarters and other special operations. The second thing is that the diet's probably going to be weird, mostly not grain products. I'd guess that things like taro and sweet potato would be grown for carbs, and legumes grown for protein. As for meat, the sooner people get to eating small mammals (guinea pigs, for instance) or even more likely, crickets, the more likely these are to be flown for food. After all, you can have one goat the weighs 200 pounds (big goat, but the range is 40-300 lbs), but that goat will only give you some milk, and if you kill it and eat it, that's it. Conversely, I'm willing to bet a colony that contains 200 lbs of crickets will produce some crickets for food every day. They're more fungible than are big meat animals, but there's always the ick factor to be overcome.

    718:

    Unrelated to anything, but this came out: the possibility of using nano-mayonnaise" as as computronium. I'm only joking a little.

    719:

    You make it the first thing you do to fit an airlock and put some air inside. Then all your interior assembly operations can be done in an atmosphere. Doesn't matter that you haven't got the means of keeping it breathable installed yet - oxygen masks will suffice until you do - the important part is that you have an ambient pressure, so you don't have all the wanking in boxing gloves in a suit of armour problem.

    Zero g is of course an advantage. You don't have to lift things, just start and stop them; you don't have to struggle to hold something up with one hand while you try and get the screws in with the other; when you let go of something, it doesn't accelerate away from you... of course it isn't free of difficulties, but all the same, think for example of how great it would be if you could take a car into orbit to swap the gearbox, and I reckon it's a big win overall. And we're talking about operations inside a closed shell, so there's no worry about drifting irretrievably away.

    720:

    Yeah - exactly - "utter mess" doesn't begin to cover it! Some people contend that nationalisation is rather pointless because all the micromanagement effectively amounts to nationalisation anyway - which misses the point that the current unholy mixture basically gives us the combined disadvantages of both paradigms... and the contradictions around trying to get private companies to provide a service rather than make a profit mean that however you manage them it's bound to be a fuckup of one sort or another.

    721:

    Re: '... ick factor'

    So, oysters aren't icky? Or haggis?

    Have noticed that more and more travel shows have the European or North American host enjoying the 'local' African/Asian crunchy insect recipe. The UK (Derby) site below mentions chocolate coated crunchy critters and how easy it is to breed your own. Wonder how their sales are doing considering the increased news nuggets showing Brits stockpiling food in anticipation of no-deal Brexit and potential food shortages.

    https://www.crunchycritters.com/

    FYI - UK haggis was banned from importation to the US thanks to a BSE crisis (1989), and I think it's still banned. Which brings up a question: What edible insects are known or potential carriers of deadly-to-humans diseases and is the FDA up to setting up standards and check-points for this potential food stuff? Of course, the FDA could ask the EU for info/guidance but some folks might insist on having their own (USian) standards.

    722:

    Re: Nano-mayo - computronium

    The brain is about 60% fats, so why not.

    723:

    No - but nor are crickets. I am planning to live on a diet of squirrel and cat, both of which are pests in my garden :-)

    We are much more closely related to fish than insects and, as far as I know, we have no endoparasites, prion diseases etc. in common. Except for things that get carried on their carapace or in their gut, of course, where there is no more risk than from other mammals, birds and fish.

    724:

    Yes, there are an awful lot of fares which are excessive, and some of them are outrageous... but while privatisation has increased the length of the outrageous tail, there has never been a time when people didn't complain about the fares, and the nationalised railway used to trot out the same fucking stupid excuse as the private operators - "actually they're really cheap, because [insert three honeywagon-loads of accountants' bullshit] therefore it costs five times more to drive it than it does in reality and the fares are less than that". It seems that once someone has received accountants' training they not only live permanently in fairyland, they permanently lose the ability to recognise that normal people don't, so there's just no way to get it through their heads that as far as normal people are concerned the cost of driving it is simply the cost of the petrol, and if fares are not less than that, not only are people not going to think they're cheap, but they are also going to react with scorn and contempt to anyone trying to tell them otherwise.

    "...which INCLUDED a bicycle when we wanted to use them."

    Oh, dear, that is something of a sore point... Bicycles used to be charged for, up until some time in the mid-70s when the policy was changed and you could take them for free. Which was excellent: after all one of the most awkward things about rail travel is that it leaves you with the problem of getting from the station to where you actually wanted to go, and being able to bring your bicycle with you is a solution that works for an awful lot of cases of that problem.

    Then in the mid-80s a new generation of trains started to appear - which did not have guards' vans. You could still take your bicycle, but there was nowhere to put it; basically you have to cram it in the seating accommodation, and it's a huge pain in the arse both for you and for everyone else in the carriage.

    That design trend has been in force ever since, along with the similarly unwelcome trend of making trains shorter - and therefore more crowded, so trying to fit a bike in with the passengers is even more of a pain in the arse. Now it's a complete mess, there's no clear indication whether a bicycle will be allowed on a particular route at a particular time, and even if you are allowed to take your bicycle on a given journey you still have the risk of the guard not allowing you to put it on the train because it's too full and leaving you stuck on the station.

    This is the bloody accountants again, being obsessed with the idea that any space on a train not occupied by a human body "is losing money" (yeah, I can see the micro black hole suspended in that vacant seat and all the pound notes falling into it, sure) and therefore the appropriate design paradigm for a train is a tin of sardines with wheels on; to get more sardines in, just increase the pressure; better to risk leaving some sardines behind than risk unused capacity in a tin big enough for a larger than average load. The idea of having half of one carriage in the train empty of seats entirely to put bicycles and luggage in is so antipathetic to their way of thinking that the mere suggestion would have them vomiting up their own kidneys.

    725:

    bullshit] therefore it costs five times more to drive it than it does in reality ... as far as normal people are concerned the cost of driving it is simply the cost of the petrol

    Then why don't those normal people immediately buy electric cars, since those cost nothing to operate?

    Having recently bought my first ever motor vehicle, I can say that if you haven't internalised all the little extra costs the experience is bloody traumatising. The fixed costs of ownership are numerous and horrifying, and the cost of servicing is shocking, especially if you don't already have all the tools to do the work yourself.

    In the last couple of months I have spent more than $5000 on those "hidden" costs, everything from insurance to tweaking my front yard so I can park there. Most of those are recurring costs, and all the large ones are. It shocks me that $300 for parking is a small cost, but there you are.

    Servicing is scary. Except for my welder which I could replace for about $1000, I can build a bicycle from tubing and parts in my garage. I know this, because I have done it and still ride a bicycle I built myself. Sure, that's $2000-$3000 of tooling, but I already have it and most of the tools are multipurpose. So I have spanners, allen keys, drills and so on.

    But even trivia like making sure the tyres are pumped up means I need a proper pressure gauge and an adapter for my bike pump. Changing the oil requires a bunch of specialised tools and while most of them are under $100, there are a silly number of them. The thing for unscrewing the filter once I've used a special tool to undo the bolts that hold it in place is $50. Except that there are two filters requiring different tools, and it's cheaper to buy a set of 6-ish tools than two separate ones. And so on... an oil change costs ~$200 for new oil, ~$50 to dispose of the old oil, a couple of hours labour.... and $500 in tools.

    This is just the straight-up, out of my pocket, money cost. We're not talking the social cost of having another motor vehicle in the street or on the street, the extra pollution from more driving or the extra having another bad driver vaguely hoping they can avoid killing someone.

    So while the "average person" thinks they only pay for fuel, the "average person" is very, very wrong.

    The good news, especially for those of you in Sydney, is that hopefully today some other idiot is coming to pick up my motor vehicle and I will be back to only using more sensible forms of transport. It's been horrible.

    726:

    A century-ago Sears kit house "would not meet modern expectations". Really? Whay, because it didn't include Cat-6 cabing? Or ductwork for forced-air HVAC? Or conduit and 20-amp wire and a 200W breaker box?

    All valid points, but such things are pretty easy to add to a design. No, think indoor plumbing! Walking out to the backyard pump when you need water for cooking would be a nuisance. The prospect of having to armor up against winter weather for a 2AM outhouse visit is a showstopper.

    The past, as they say, is a foreign country; they did things differently there.

    727:

    You can reportedly get Salmonella from insects that aren't raised hygenically, but you can get Salmonella from almost anything.

    I got over my "ick, insects" thing a long time ago. Back in grad school, a couple of my friends decided to do a fund-raising dinner for a local natural history museum. They served a five course meal, where every course had insects in it. I got to try the left overs (chocolate chip cricket cookies, fried ants in cream cheese on toast) and found out they're perfectly normal. The cookies were extra crunchy, and the ants added a nice acid note to the crackers. No biggie. Since then I've snacked on fried silk worms (a byproduct of silk making, often replacing peanuts with beer in Asia) and they're fine too.

    The problem they had making that meal is the problem we have now getting westerners to eat more insects: they're effin' expensive, due to low production amounts. Food-grade mealworms were $15/lb back when they did the insect dinner, and cricket flour currently is $16.95/lb on Amazon. Grown in bulk, insects could be really cheap, but they're currently niche products and hence expensive.

    There's actually another problem with entomophagy worldwide, which is our addiction to pesticides. In centuries past, grasshoppers eating crops were a major source of peasant protein, especially for children. Now that all the bugs are getting poisoned in the name of promoting grain production for commerce, some kids are getting malnourished because their parents can't afford to feed them the protein they need to replace the grasshoppers their parents caught for free.

    728:

    I suspect no century-old house would meet modern expectations or standards.

    But you can buy kit houses today that very definitely do meet modern standards and expectations. There are even youtube channels with people going through the process, and Grand Designs has a couple of episodes featuring them (because some of those kit houses are quite upmarket).

    As you would expect from companies that have been making those kits for 100+ years they are very comprehensive and there is a lot of information out there for people who are interested. You get everything from "WTF, I need to supply my own hammer?" to "I hired a team of professional builders and they put it together in a week", and there are video series with both those. If you want the latter the Grand Designs episodes are much better produced.

    729:

    Zero g is of course an advantage. You don't have to lift things, just start and stop them; you don't have to struggle to hold something up with one hand while you try and get the screws in with the other; when you let go of something, it doesn't accelerate away from you...

    Yes and no. It's certainly got its advantages for moving large massive things such as entire hab modules. (Also, I love the scene in Rocket Girls where the shuttle-to-capsule docking system is an astronaut holding a rope.) So there's definitely that.

    On the other hand, things also have no force keeping them where they were put. One of the first things reported by the Skylab astronauts was how small objects flew off as soon as the astronaut looked away. Sometimes they were nearby; sometimes they were across the cabin; sometimes they couldn't be found at all. Lost things tended to show up a few hours later on one of the screens over the air vents. (Fine mesh screens over the air vent intakes are very important for a space habitat.) Worryingly, things that hadn't been lost also showed up there, like screws, nuts, and unidentified technical parts; signs that the space station is literally falling apart justifiably concern astronauts.

    730:

    crickets will produce some crickets for food every day. They're more fungible than are big meat animals, but there's always the ick factor to be overcome.

    Just come up with ways to press them into things that look and taste similar to oatmeal cookies and such. :)

    Says he who can't eat yogurt without throwing up. And it is purely mental. I admit it. And I'll still throw up. (Thanks Mom)

    731:

    I suspect no century-old house would meet modern expectations or standards.

    To say the least. I live in a house over a century old. (That's rare for the western US; yes, Europeans may laugh at those of us whose cities don't predate the wheel.) It would not. It's easy to spot the extension where the kitchen and bathroom with indoor plumbing were added. Conduit along interior walls was added for electricity too - when I moved in parts of the house were still running on the original 15 amp everything circuit. Insulation is hard to see but the house is much warmer than it used to be.

    But you can buy kit houses today that very definitely do meet modern standards and expectations. There are even youtube channels...

    I really hope you have seen Buster Keaton's One Week, which was filmed in 1920 but shows situations familiar to everyone who's ever tackled a large remodeling project. I see archive.org has several copies, for those who haven't.

    At least in orbit an astronaut Keaton would not get hurt falling from high places. The habitat yaw problem would be at least as bad as shown...

    732:

    (remembers eating craneflies raw and whole at school to exploit the ick factor for comic effect)

    But yes, those dishes do seem to be an odd way of going about it. I'd have thought you'd stand a much better chance of getting people to try something like an insect burger or a sausage than a full-on Crunchy Frog.

    733:

    "...small objects flew off as soon as the astronaut looked away. Sometimes they were nearby; sometimes they were across the cabin; sometimes they couldn't be found at all."

    Yes, but that happens under normal gravity too. You put a spanner down and when you go to pick it up again it isn't there and fucked if it's anywhere else either. Force holding things down doesn't come into it, since things can disappear even from inside closed containers: for instance the configuration of a 13mm socket in a set of sockets from say 10mm to 19mm is unstable, and liable to reduce its internal energy by expelling the 13mm, so it is often handy to keep a couple of 13mm sockets loose in the bottom of your tool bag in case the one in your socket set isn't there when you open the lid. The thing is that it isn't true that macroscopic objects don't exhibit quantum behaviour; they do, but it's incredibly difficult to study because the observation interferes so it never happens when you're looking for it to.

    734:

    "...fixed costs..."

    Exactly... those are what it costs you those just to have a car at all, and how far you travel in it makes no or little difference. Adding them up and dividing by mileage and saying it costs you that much per mile (a) isn't true, (b) doesn't even make sense, and (c) if you do believe it, it follows that you should also choose to use the car whenever the choice arises.

    But forget all that; wtf is going on here? Is this just a currency conversion thing, or a particularly shit car, or actual genuine Mars-bar-relative horror? Or a mixture of all three?

    "an oil change costs ~$200 for new oil, ~$50 to dispose of the old oil, a couple of hours labour.... and $500 in tools."

    See to me it's about £20 for new oil, about the same for the filter, zero for disposal, ten minutes labour, and for tools a spanner, a piece of rope, and a washing up bowl (all of which I already have for other reasons). I'm used to seeing complaints about costs of that order from people who think they're above getting their hands dirty and are shocked how much the uppity peasants want to do it for them, but having seen some of your mechanical creations in links you've posted I'd expect you to be well able to avoid undue costs, so I can only conclude that Australia must be an incredibly hostile environment to run a car in compared to the UK.

    735:

    My costs are for a 10 ton truck, so it's not strictly comparable - 12 litres of engine oil, 2l for the turbo? (some sort of specialist oil, anyway) and 5.5l for the transmission. I'm not inclined to buy the cheapest possible oil that might fit the spec either, because that just seems like false economy. Plus I feel obliged to return it down the path that leads to it being burned for heat (I don't have any use for that much waste oil).

    I could probably fabricate the tools, but IME it's rarely worth while. As with bicycles, if you have a set of specialised tools maintenance is much, much easier. For a bicycle one of those $50 kits will do just about everything (once or twice). For the truck that kit doesn't exist, and the various tools even in their cheap-but-not-garbage forms cost 10x as much. Just the sheer fact that to change a tyre you need 10kg or more of tools makes everything more expensive - the "socket" for the wheel nuts is 200mm long with a sizeable lump each end for the nut and drive handle on a shaft 20mm in diameter. That came with the truck, but a few other bits and bobs didn't - I don't have a 1/2" socket driver let alone a 3/4" one, and the shop seemed to suggest that the 3/4" would be a better bet long term. FWIW I priced it all up and decided that paying a mechanic was better, at least the first time.

    Being old and never having claimed on insurance or been caught driving (badly or otherwise) insurance and license were comparatively cheap, but the fixed costs still run about $4000-$5000 a year. So you're paying about $100 a week to own a vehicle, plus the cost of buying it and parking it, before you drive it at all ... and you have to drive it in order to get it certified as roadworthy.

    For $5000 a year you can get an awful lot of brand new shiny bicycle. Two years of that gets you a brand new shiny velomobile. Both with electric assist if you want it. Or $5000/year gets you a lot of public transport with a few taxi rides and a car share/hire car or two.

    736:

    Apropos of nothing, there's the Lovecraftian fun of David LAZARUS talking about the problem of billionaires injecting themselves with plasma from young people to help them live longer. Anyone want to write the story where the first vampires/zombies are the 0.001%, not some poor random patient zero?

    737:

    Heteromeles @ 633: On the other hand, if you want to study the effects of freefall, it's better to have a non-rotating station, no?

    Why would you want to "study the effects of free-fall" in a rotating space station? The whole purpose of the rotation is to simulate gravity with centrifugal force so you can get away from the effects of free-fall. If you need to "study the effects of free-fall" you'd go up to the hub or out to an adjoining free-fall habitat.

    The other problem with the old tank farm dynamo concept (two clusters of tanks tethered to each other and spun up in a skyhook configuration) is that it turned out (on STS-75) that not only do tethers in space conduct a fair amount of electricity as predicted, but that weird and unexpectedly destructive things happen to the tether.

    Except that's not what the experiment was. They weren't trying to rotate around a common center. The tether was so they could dangle the tethered satellite into the Ionosphere using a conductive tether to see if they could make electricity.

    The tether was intentionally designed to be conductive. The problem came from a manufacturing defect that allowed air trapped inside the insulating jacket to leak out, creating a plasma that was more conductive than the system was designed for, resulting in higher than expected current sufficient to melt the tether cable.

    If you wanted to create centrifugal force by spinning two tanks at the ends of a long cable, you'd use a NON-CONDUCTIVE tether and place your assemblage in orbit high enough to keep the lower end of it out of the Ionosphere

    738:

    Guess you haven't read Brin's story Tank Farm Dynamo, but it did have conducting tethers holding clusters of fuel tanks...

    739:

    whitroth @ 670: What's wrong with sending up a kit?

    I believe David's comment was regarding the difficulty of doing construction work in zero-G while wearing current generation EVA gear. It would certainly be a lot of hard work, but I don't think it would be beyond human capabilities.

    So far, all of the arguments against having attempted to build a space station using shuttle external tankse boiled down to it would take more hard work than we wanted to do and cost more money than we wanted to spend.

    Short sighted austerity trumped "To boldly go where no man has gone before." Somehow we lost the pioneer's Can Do! spirit.

    740:

    Heteromeles @ 672: About biomedical research, since I know one or two things.

    So where would I cut costs?

    How about Don't let Big Pharma patent drugs developed by government (i.e. tax-payer) funded research!

    741:

    Won't work, sadly.

    Big Pharma may patent stuff, but more often they buy patents or buy companies that own patents.

    Here's the thing: the more honest Big Pharma companies run drugs through the human trials to make sure the drugs are safe and more efficacious than existing treatments. These are hundred million dollar processes. You expect a company to do this without any guarantee that they can enforce a monopoly on producing a product long enough to recoup the money they're expending? If they can't, then they spend hundreds of millions of dollars making sure some drug works, start selling it, and a couple of weeks later, the market is flooded with cheap knockoffs, and they're out a hundred million.

    The government funded part of the research is, unfortunately, a trivial part of the cost of any one drug, probably a few hundred thousand dollars. The problem is that with only one is something like 2,000 drugs making it to market, so that cost gets enormous when you try to use the profits from any blockbuster drug pay for all the failures. It is expensive enough that Big Pharma companies have been shedding their R&D arms because they lose too much money (basically, 99.9% of what R&D does fails to provide a profit).

    That's why there's some logic to having NIH pay for academic researchers to look for new drug candidates. The academics have their careers doing their thing living off grants (and NIH grant success rate is 18%, so a research has to submit five grants for every one that comes through). If the researchers get lucky, they spin off a company (which makes some money for the university in licensing fees), and if the early trials are successful, that tiny company gets bought out by a Big Pharma company that takes the drug through the human trials and markets it. But most drugs fail somewhere along this line. Either they're too dangerous or no better than existing drugs, and that's the end of that.

    It's kind of like what happens with novels. Most novels aren't blockbusters, and still fewer are used to make blockbuster movie franchises, but those blockbuster franchises pay the advances for all the new novelists trying to break into the system, even though most new novels won't make much money. Now the publishing world generally sucks, in that most of the writers who'd like to make a living from writing can't do it, and most of the readers wish books were better, cheaper, and showed up faster. But how to you make it so that readers get books that are simultaneously better and cheaper while novelists get a living wage?

    Same problem with drugs: how do you make new drugs better, cheaper, and safer while still paying everyone involved?

    742:

    Damian @ 685: According to the wiki page Charlie linked above about the B330, “Bigelow also claims that the module provides radiation protection equivalent to, and ballistic protection superior to, the International Space Station.”

    Unless you mean the space shuttle external tanks, which I’d have thought are now pretty defunct?

    My original comment about building a space station from shuttle external tanks was sort of with the intent to understand "Why didn't NASA try to get more use out of them back when the shuttle was flying?" Trying to do it now that we no longer have the space shuttle would be pointless. It was an opportunity that NASA missed, and I don't understand why.

    If I understand the design of the Bigelow module, it has several layers of bladders nested inside a Kevlar envelope which is inside of several more layers inflated by injecting some kind of foam (possibly an aerogel) between them; with all of this inside an external thermal blanket layer.

    Upon inflation, the foam would set creating a fairly rigid structure.

    743:

    David L @ 695:

    What's wrong with sending up a kit?

    And those Sears kids did NOT include everything. Especially not tools. And the result would be considered very substandard by today's expectations.

    Maybe not. There appear to be quite a number of Sears Catalog Homes still standing in Raleigh, especially in the Mordecai neighborhood.

    http://www.searshomes.org/index.php/2012/04/10/the-kit-homes-of-raleigh-nc/

    http://www.searshomes.org/index.php/2011/02/09/abundance-of-kit-homes-raleigh-nc/

    I recognized several of those houses. I've seen them myself while out walking around the neighborhood. And Sears was not the only company selling kits.

    744:

    David L @ 696: Hmmm. Totally off topic.

    Just looking out my window through the trees with no leaves and notices the high voltage lines running in front of my house each have a lump on them what looks like an stubby antenna poking vertically out one end. This is a 3 phase loop from the substation that covers a few 1000 homes. Maybe a few 10,000. Lumps are about the size of a shoe box. Maybe smaller.

    Any idea of what these are?

    Could it have something to do with remote monitoring of the Smart Meters Duke Energy is installing in Raleigh?

    745:

    Scott Sanford @ 726:

    A century-ago Sears kit house "would not meet modern expectations". Really? Whay, because it didn't include Cat-6 cabing? Or ductwork for forced-air HVAC? Or conduit and 20-amp wire and a 200W breaker box?

    All valid points, but such things are pretty easy to add to a design. No, think indoor plumbing! Walking out to the backyard pump when you need water for cooking would be a nuisance. The prospect of having to armor up against winter weather for a 2AM outhouse visit is a showstopper.

    The past, as they say, is a foreign country; they did things differently there.

    All of the Sears Catalog Plans I've looked at since the thread veered off in this direction included provisions for those newfangled indoor toilets & kitchens with running water connected to the city's water supply. Hell, my own house - built in 1936 - even has a built in bath-tub.

    The Great Sanitary Awakening that took place in England in the early 19th century had reached North Carolina by 1877.

    By the end of the 19th Century North Carolina municipalities were treating water and replacing privies with sewage systems in order to protect water supplies.

    Raleigh NC where I live had city water as early as 1818 "sufficient to fill three underground reservoirs with a total capacity of 8000 gallons" intended to provide sufficient water "for culinary and other purposes, and a supply always in readiness in cases of fire."

    746:

    Heteromeles @ 738: Guess you haven't read Brin's story Tank Farm Dynamo, but it did have conducting tethers holding clusters of fuel tanks...

    If you want to be able to generate electricity by moving a wire through a magnetic field, you're probably going to want to use a conducting tether.

    If, OTOH, you don't want that, you can use a non-conducting tether.

    747:

    Heteromeles @ 741: Won't work, sadly.

    Big Pharma may patent stuff, but more often they buy patents or buy companies that own patents.

    So? Don't let Big Pharma buy patents for drugs developed on the public dime. Don't allow the small companies that are going to be bought up by Big Pharma to patent drugs developed on the public dime.

    If the government finances the research, NO ONE should be allowed to patent the results and then turn around to gouge the taxpayers who paid for the research.

    748:

    Moz @ 725 THAT is one of the principal reasons I have a Land-Rover - I can do all the routine manintenance myself & it usually does not require specialist kit & is environmentally friendly, because I NOT BUYING A NEW ONE. Now, of course fucking Khan wants to steal it.

    Moz @ 728 Linkies or keyword, please?

    Pigeon @ 733 YESSSSSSS ... Also known as "I put a mouse down round here somewhere" [ After a very cuddly cat, who wasn' terribly bright, who one day, caught said rodent ... showed it proudly to his humans & a guest ... & then dropped it. He went round the circuit, came back - mouse GONE & he went dollally ... his sister, who was much more alert ... had of course nicked it the moment his back was turned. One of the funniest things I've seen in years ]

    "Sears" & othe kit homes. I note that are mostly "clapboard" ( Also called Weatherborad - v popular in N & E Essex, here & some parts of NZ. ) Low rainfall helps.

    749:

    I have seen some that have used that theme, but I agree that a full-on vampire variation would be a good idea!

    750:

    the "socket" for the wheel nuts is 200mm long with a sizeable lump each end for the nut and drive handle on a shaft 20mm in diameter. That came with the truck, but a few other bits and bobs didn't - I don't have a 1/2" socket driver let alone a 3/4" one, and the shop seemed to suggest that the 3/4" would be a better bet long term. FWIW I priced it all up and decided that paying a mechanic was better, at least the first time.

    Knew when I bought my Tundra that I would need to replace the "looks brand new tires" at some point. They had street treads and one of the fronts ones was a replacement and not a match. So no rating them.

    When I tore the side wall on one I got to learn how to operate the tire tools in the cab. And to your point, now I have a tire wrench with an interesting twist/corkscrew at the lug nut end. Had to jump on the handle with someone holding the brakes to get the nuts off. Oh well. Now I'm a bit afraid of the strength of the wrench. I guess I'll go to "Harbor Freight"[1] and get the an impact socket sized for the lug nut with a 1/2" drive. I have several 1/2" breaker bars (don't ask) so I can put one in the cab.

    In the US most tire stores will include life time rotate and balance when you but a set so that eliminates a lot of hassles.

    [1]Nationwide chain of tool stores that sells imports from China cheap. You get what you pay for. But for certain uses a cheap throw away can be the way to go. And if it lasts longer than the immediate need, great.

    751:

    Huf house is one European one, "Grand Designs German Kit House Surrey" will find you at least one kit house episode

    https://www.dwell.com/article/prefab-kit-home-companies-19b7cf7f a list of modern ones https://www.prebuilt.com.au/grand-designs-australia/ Prebuilt is a kit place in Oz

    Apparently a terrifying large number of Sears kit houses are still around: https://www.npr.org/2018/10/20/657770791/sears-is-fading-but-memories-of-its-mail-order-homes-endure

    752:

    My costs are for a 10 ton truck, so it's not strictly comparable - 12 litres of engine oil, 2l for the turbo?

    Yep. My cost to change the oil in my 5.7L Tundra is double or more that for the 1.5L turbo Civic.

    753:

    the more honest Big Pharma companies run drugs through the human trials to make sure the drugs are safe and more efficacious than existing treatments. These are hundred million dollar processes.

    And hope that you catch things like "oops, people from that part of the world have a DNA that reacts badly with this drug".

    Or bad things that take 10 years to show up. Or more. Any other old farts taking CoQ10 with their statin?

    Or .....

    The problem with this debate is that the parts you describe get lumped into the discussions/rants about marketing budgets predatory pricing and such.

    754:

    You put a spanner down and when you go to pick it up again it isn't there

    I lost a set of keys for a year or two when my 3+ year old son helped me buy picking them up and putting them into the tool box of rarely used tools.

    And on another note dealing with parents.

    My father was always on us for loosing his tools. At one point after we had all grown up and aged out of the house he lost a pair of vice grip pliers. Couldn't find them anywhere. 9 months later when changing the oil on one of the cars he say them clamped on a bolt that went through into the passenger compartment. He had used it to keep the bolt from turning while attaching something to the other end and then totally forgot about it.

    In relating this to his sons he said he owed us a bit of an apology. Not a big one but a bit.

    755:

    You make it the first thing you do to fit an airlock and put some air inside. Then all your interior assembly operations can be done in an atmosphere.

    That was my point about engineering the door. A small one means not nearly as much structural issues with the "tank" but you have a severe limit on the size of anything going in or our. A larger one and you now start affecting the tank aspect more and more.

    Zero g is of course an advantage. You don't have to lift things, just start and stop them;

    Sorry. I disagree that there's a net advantage. Yes in certain use cases but no on many more. Earth is a great "fixed thing" to push against.

    On a earthly site if you're pushing a wheel barrow and notice something in the way (a tool or arm or head) you can stop it in most cases by just dropping the handles. There's a reason that materials that can be carried or hauled are moved with unskilled labor while that crane operator has a lot of training and experience before getting the job.

    And then you have all of these expensive motorized tools that aren't needed on earth as you can push against the planet.

    And based on various interviews I've seen with guys who have actually Zero G experience fighting muscle memory built up over 30 or 40 years is tough. All kinds of things you would "just do" on the planet you have to think out and plan in ZG.

    756:

    That is an invalid argument.

    Those Sears kits were great. But they were NOT a complete house. Site prep and foundation was under the category of "some assembly required".

    And the last 20% was also left to the user.

    But if you bought one, and did your site work, when done with the kit you had a bare bones weather tight place you could live in. If a bit sparsely.

    Japan is a better place to look. They have companies building "rooms" that can be fitted together into a house. With some limits of course.

    And there are places like Ted Benson's which can really make a custom house for you to assemble (with a crane and crew) on site. https://bensonwood.com/

    757:

    Anyone want to write the story where the first vampires/zombies are the 0.001%

    All Those Explosions Were Someone Else's Fault by James Alan Gardner.

    758:

    Once Upon a Time, when I was a Junior Scientific Officer in Local Government back in 1969, I swapped a couple of months use of a Land Rover that was owned by the Technical College - that had the Joy and Privilege to Employ me - with the Civil Engineering Department, for a Reel to Reel Tape Recorder which model had featured in the interrogation scenes in "The Ipcress File " ..which was why I'd acquired one for my ergonomics lab ..well that was my story ..about the ergonomics lab that is. Apparently the Civil Engineers needed 'my' tape recorder to play music tapes for their Scottish Country Dancing Club. The Land Rover had an improbable number of Gear Boxes in its Gear Box Thingy ..oh , I also blagged a Driver. Not as much fun as the film though. ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ui5ec35Toc4

    759:

    The prospect of having to armor up against winter weather for a 2AM outhouse visit is a showstopper.

    That's why you use a chamber pot and empty it in the morning.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chamber_pot

    760:

    Yes ..you could do one of those 'kit houses' Or? ..." Jessie works to finish building a new home for himself along the Nenana River before the harsh weather returns. #LifeBelowZero " http://treehoze.com/LifeBelowZeroTV/1096454095508918272

    761:

    What, doesn't every proper car have a Hi/Low range, 4WD selector, and normal gearbox?
    If you have less than three coloured sticks going on you're missing out.
    I owned a SWB Series III for a decade or so. Great fun, if thirsty on fuel.

    762:

    Re: 'Big Pharma companies run drugs through the human trials to make sure the drugs are safe and more efficacious than existing treatments. These are hundred million dollar processes.'

    Serious price escalation going on ...

    Physicians used to be paid about $1K per patient they signed and followed up (2-3 visits in total, fill-in-the-blank paperwork and diagnostics paid for by the drug company). The current clinical trial 'honorarium' rate is approx. $70-$80K for 4-5 patients/physician. Consider that now (vs. in the '80s) almost all patients in Western trials are recruited in hospitals. In the US this means they're part of an HMO. I've not seen any cost per recruited patient by country analysis but am guessing that the costs would differ as a function of each participating nation's level of socialized healthcare. (Good question to ask MDs in the Netherlands, Denmark, Iceland, Canada or Sweden vs. US, UK, Germany, Japan.)

    As for a researcher (MD clinical practitioner & researcher) discovering*, patenting and then marketing a cure - depends on their institution. Am aware of a few institutions that specifically prohibit this as 'profiteering'. Am also aware of an MD who did find a treatment, published the results and a few years later a more entrepreneurial MD contacted him and bought the patent. This product's annual revenue is in the billions because cost of treatment ranges from $300,000-$500,000 per patient per year for forever. The cost to produce and deliver this treatment is nowhere near its price. (I'm guessing their GP is close to 95%-96%. How do they get away with this: this is the only 'treatment' for this condition apart from a risky 50/50 chance of success BMT -- if you can find a 'match', plus other BMT-related risks. Typical life expectancy without treatment is maybe 5 years with about half spent in bed too weak to do anything - if you're lucky.)

    • Just looked up the history of the research on this 'condition' on the NIH database and it looks like published research goes back to the mid 1800s with research/articles originating from five continents. So our 'discoverer' is actually the last link in a long chain of scattered in time and space researchers/discoverers.

    As for the reliability of clinical trials in revealing their drugs' safety, suggest you read this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purdue_Pharma

    For a laugh, you can also look up how many of past 20 or so years of clinical trials report conclusions such as 'not significantly worse than [existing drug]' as their claim to success. Typically, these drugs are about 10-20 times more expensive than existing therapies, and in at least one very widely used category, have no antidote if a patient takes too much of the drug. It turns out that the actual key benefit is convenience and not efficacy, patient safety or cost of treatment.

    763:

    David L @ 750: When I tore the side wall on one I got to learn how to operate the tire tools in the cab. And to your point, now I have a tire wrench with an interesting twist/corkscrew at the lug nut end. Had to jump on the handle with someone holding the brakes to get the nuts off. Oh well. Now I'm a bit afraid of the strength of the wrench. I guess I'll go to "Harbor Freight"[1] and get the an impact socket sized for the lug nut with a 1/2" drive. I have several 1/2" breaker bars (don't ask) so I can put one in the cab.

    In the US most tire stores will include life time rotate and balance when you but a set so that eliminates a lot of hassles.

    [1]Nationwide chain of tool stores that sells imports from China cheap. You get what you pay for. But for certain uses a cheap throw away can be the way to go. And if it lasts longer than the immediate need, great.

    One of the first things I do with a "new" vehicle is to find a half inch socket to fit the tire lugs & buy a long handle driver so I don't have to use the piece of junk lug wrench supplied.

    There's an old half joke about the U.S. automobile industry that goes something like:

    Q: Why does General Motors supply a $2.oo jack with a $20,000 automobile?
    A: Because they ran out of $1.oo jacks.

    If you're worried about the quality of Harbor Freight's cheap Chinese tools, try Northern Tools instead. They sell better quality cheap Chinese tools; almost as good (if not better) than the cheap Chinese tools you can find at Home Depot or Lowe's Home improvement - but the prices are still competitive with Harbor Freight.

    When the wheel hub on my Harbor Freight $300 D.I.Y. kit trailer failed, I bought better quality replacements from Northern Tools.

    @ 756:

    That is an invalid argument.

    Those Sears kits were great. But they were NOT a complete house. Site prep and foundation was under the category of "some assembly required".

    And the last 20% was also left to the user.

    But if you bought one, and did your site work, when done with the kit you had a bare bones weather tight place you could live in. If a bit sparsely.

    The kit homes from Sears, Montgomery-Ward and other vendors were available in various levels of completeness from just plans with no materials up to a complete kit with everything including the kitchen sink (and bathroom fixtures).

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6c/Pre_fabricated_house_shipped_via_boxcar.jpg

    If you bought a complete kit, you did have to do your own site prep and foundation, but all the rest of the materials needed to finish the house (including exterior & interior paint) was supplied; pre-cut & numbered so all you had to do was follow the assembly steps in sequence.

    I've been following up on the subject because it appears to provide answers to some of the stupid shit I've found repairing my home (built in 1936 at the height of the depression.

    I'd already concluded whoever built this house was obviously NOT a carpenter. If he was building it from a kit, the places where he didn't follow the directions (or tried to adapt to changes from the plan) could account for some of the problems I've discovered, like ...

    "What kind of idiot puts an unsupported, half-lap, scarf joint in a load bearing beam over the middle of a door opening in the foundation?"

    764:

    Mayhem @ 761: What, doesn't every proper car have a Hi/Low range, 4WD selector, and normal gearbox?
    If you have less than three coloured sticks going on you're missing out.
    I owned a SWB Series III for a decade or so. Great fun, if thirsty on fuel.

    Why do they have to be color coded? My jeep has them, they're all the same color and I have no problem telling them apart.
    /snark

    765:

    Mayhem @ 761 These days - since about 1990, in fact PROPER Land-Rovers only had two sticks, because 4WD was permanent ... but you moved the second (shorter) lever to select: Hi/Low or "locked"/"Unlocked" at the central differential. Mine has a third switch ( An elctrical button ) to select "Overdrive" - yup THREE gearboxes ....

    766:

    "What kind of idiot puts an unsupported, half-lap, scarf joint in a load bearing beam over the middle of a door opening in the foundation?"

    This reminds me of the problem with the idea of would-be hero seeking to emulate legendary ancient hero having got hold of legendary hero's actual sword that was broken in legendary hero's climactic battle and got someone to glue it together again... the realistic outcome involves something like would-be hero looking at stump of sword which has come apart at the weld on the first blow struck with it and saying "oh shit", as evil opponent raises own sword, switches on shit-eating grin and says "oops".

    767:

    What drugs are developed on the "public dime"? A lot of basic "this chemical has this effect on lab rats" research is done under Government funding programs but that's a lot different from a shelf-ready drug for human beings that's been tested for safety, efficacy, compounded to be manufacturable to a repeatable spec, won't degrade in adverse storage conditions etc. etc. Those drugs are patentable because they have all those requirements met and the process of getting from "oh, this chemical has an interesting effect" to "ask your doctor about Qwuertygoop(tm)" costs hundreds of millions of non-taxpayer dollars.

    768:

    And to clarify, AFAIK, if you're employed and discover a possible drug, the patent typically belongs to your employer (university, hospital, etc.). They can license it, or you can set up a business to try to commercialize the project, in partnership with the university. I don't know much about this process because I've never been directly involved, but I do have a friend who set up a company to attempt to commercialize a discovery he made, and he's a university employee as well.

    But going from there to having a drug approved by the FDA takes hundreds of millions of dollars, so it's better to think of drug production as a segment of an industry.

    This is more for JBS and others, but it's similar to the way a novel turns into a movie: --You've got your SF novel, and someone gives you some money to publish it. That's equivalent of the NIH funded step: substance X causes effect Y in rats/in vitro/etc. --If it's a sufficiently interesting manuscript (Old Man's War for instance), the manuscript gets picked up for publication. It probably gets published. --There's a non-zero chance that the novel makes money, but it's still not interesting to the moviemakers, because it's SF novel, which means huge special effects budgets, so you need a huge audience to make it worth money. This is the valley of death for most novels. In drugs, this is where you find out that the chemical may be great in cell cultures but dangerous in organisms, or that rats work differently than humans, or whatever. --But wait, you draw a black swan, your novel becomes a best seller, and the screenwriters get interested and pay you an option on your novel. Yay? This is like your little pharma company getting bought by a big pharma company. --Most screenplays don't go anywhere in Hollywood. This is the Big Pharma hell of getting your drug through safety trials and efficacy trials.
    --And maybe, if you're lucky, the movie gets made and marketed. Is it Harry Potter or Ender's Game? In Pharmaworld, the drug your employee patented proves itself as a useful human drug and gets put on the market. Does it sell? Or do problematic side effects start showing up when a lot of highly diverse people start using it. --For most movies, the end is more likely to be Ender's Game than Harry Potter. But hundreds of millions have been spent by investors to get to this point. Oh well.

    Now the point is that NIH does the equivalent of paying the novelist's advance while she produces a novel. It doesn't cover the cost of producing the live action movie, because that's pretty expensive. Still, when you add up the costs of paying for thousands of potential drugs, that gets expensive in its own right. Since there don't seem to be many ways of telling which potential drugs can be commercialized, if you take away funding of this enormously wasteful part of the process and focus that money on pushing a few drugs through human trials, the supply of new potential drugs dries up, and so does the rest of the process.

    769:

    I think you misunderstood: they were offering a rental bike if you bought Britrail passes in the US, not us bringing them over.

    770:

    Oh... no, indeed, that never crossed my mind. I guess it must have been part of some international travel package deal that us domestics didn't get to find out about.

    771:

    Ok, folks, let me see if I can explain this so you understand*.

    The NIH spends more than half its budget on grants. Research is done either on-campus at the NIH in Bethesda, MD (one of the 50-60 buildings is the largest research hospital in the entire world), or it's given to researchers at colleges and hospitals, non-profits, etc. The research isn't some "oh, that was interesting in the dish, let Pharma investigate it", it's normally years of extensive research, by teams, not one researcher burning the midnight oil, and these days, not just wet work, but serious computer work. Patents have been granted for some of that work. A lot of them. At that point, Pharma comes in - come on, "basic research"? Can you explain that in the context of ROI, ROI, ROI, and did you consider ROI?

    A significant amount of r&d by Pharma is incremental, and in some cases, not better. Just a few years ago, the courts in India denied a patent for a drug (that was already patented here), on the grounds that a) it was no big improvement, b) wasn't especially better - or was that not better at all - than the existing drug... which was about to go out of patent.

    A lot of the basic work is done. It's already advance enough that the bean counters at Big Pharm will decide that they can make a mint off it. And some of it...

    Let me put it to you this way: a few months back, a doc gave me a scrip for the latest drug that would work externally on foot fungus in the nail. He warned me it might be expensive.... My pharmacists checked.. and it was OVER ONE THOUSAND DOLLARS. Really. I am not making this up. Come on, if it was $100, I might have bought it, and so might 100 others. At $1000+, they're going to sell a hell of a lot less.

    And then there's the drugs for old, uninteresting diseases... that are often underproduced, or expensive, for ROI.

    • I'll be glad to tell you more...in six months, exactly. Remind me.
    772:

    A point Derek Lowe makes repeatedly, and fair enough. What bothers me is that little thing about Americans needing to pay inflated prices to fund R&D, while nations with rational health care negotiate less ruinous prices. Involuntary charity.

    773:

    768 might have your answers about ROI, because the ROI on most preliminary drug investment is 0, with less than one percent chance of being worth more. Now in an ideal world, Big Pharma would cover this cost with their own R&D, but many of them don't, so governments pick up the R&D cost to keep new drugs in the pipeline.

    Now the $1000 anti-fungal is a symptom of the idiocy of the American medical system. You're only the end payer if you don't have insurance. Otherwise, the price is negotiated between the pharmacy and the insurer. Your doctor won't know how much it's going to cost you unless he's talked with the insurer and the pharmacy about it.

    What to do now? Talk with the doctor and pharmacist about cheaper alternatives. Pharmacists, in particular, if they're not overworked at a big chain store, often like the chance to actually use that doctorate they have, rather than rapidly filling scrips all day long without thinking.

    What to do in the long term? Get political and advocate for single payer health care. The negotiation game goes away when there's only one customer setting prices. Unfortunately, one person's dangerously stupid inefficiency is another person's career, so if and when the US ever goes to single payer, we've also got to deal with the mass unemployment of everyone in the health insurance industry.

    774:

    I think the difficulty of building shit in zero G has been somewhat overstated. I used to make a living building things in Zero G, but with added Zero visibility. Astronauts make a bit of a meal of building things, but it would be shocking if they didn't. They spend decades learning to be pilots, physicists, air force officers, fitness fanatics, and then at the very end, they get to intensively practice one single task in one single way in a pool for hundreds of hours. (A task that a dozen people who've never done any construction work have decided how to do in a committee room)

    How long would it take to build your house if the driving of every nail was a process signed off by a team and then dry practiced for a month? That's not how you learn to problem solve and make do with what you have.

    776:

    What bothers me is that little thing about Americans needing to pay inflated prices to fund R&D, while nations with rational health care negotiate less ruinous prices.

    It's a side-effect of the way the US healthcare system is broken by design, across multiple levels. The goal of the breakage is to maximize revenue extraction from the public; the high retail price sticker has a happy side-effect of forcing people into the insurance market (if they want healthcare at all) which in turn props up the high prices.

    It's kind of the opposite of the way a fully socialized system works, where in principle the huge centralized buying power of a national-level healthcare system can be used to strong-arm suppliers into offering reasonable prices. (Note that back before the Tories started trying to trash/privatize the NHS, the purchasing agency was able to get a good deal on medicine prices — but not to stifle development of new drugs by strangling them at birth: the UK had a healthy pharmaceutical R&D sector right up until the 90s, when it mostly got sold to US-based multinationals.)

    777:

    the UK had a healthy pharmaceutical R&D sector right up until the 90s, when it mostly got sold to US-based multinationals.)

    Interesting. From the view on the left side of the pond it seemed that all of ours were bought up by EU countries. (Local effects may be distorting my view.)

    Burroughs Wellcome gets eaten by Glaxo which became GlaxoSmithKline

    Further reading required when I have time. [eyeroll]

    778:

    In space news,

  • The first privately funded lunar lander took off successfully on Thursday. The way this stuff is counted, it would make Israel the fourth country to land something on the Moon.

  • The Dragon v2 demo flight is set to launch next Saturday https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/02/dragon-aces-final-nasa-review-now-set-for-test-flight-on-march-2/ If it's successful, they'll need to demonstrate Max-Q abort. If that works, then they launch humans.

  • 779:

    Meanwhile to return to depression .. A US religious-bigotry import we can do without I do hope some of these shits get to do time & are declared persona non grata in bulk. Incidentally, can a USian answer - are these criminals mostly catholics or extreme evangelicals?

    780:

    AIUI, nobody has demonstrated Max-Q abort for a human-rated stack.

    Shuttle abort at Max-Q? You're dead. (Buran, ditto.)

    Mercury/Gemini/Apollo abort at Max-Q? You're dead.

    Soyuz abort at Max-Q? They have pad-to-altitude abort, stage separation abort, and abort from sub-orbital … but Max-Q? Not so sure.

    Dragon probably has a better chance of surviving a Max-Q abort than earlier designs/stacks, but it's still dicey.

    On the other hand, from 50 years of human spaceflight it looks like most aborts happen (a) on the pad (stack catches fire when they light the blue touch paper), (b) stage separation (well after Max-Q), or (c) sub orbital/on orbit (in which case the capsule makes a ballistic re-entry the way it's designed to).

    781:

    Incidentally, can a USian answer - are these criminals mostly Catholics or extreme evangelicals?

    Yes. There are strong contingents of anti-abortion types among the fundamentalists of both religions.

    782:

    Worth reading Chris Hadfield's memoir, where he goes into the problems of building in zero-gee, which are:

    --the gloves, and --decompression

    They're both part of the same problem, which is that astronauts doing EVA work are in one-third surface pressure atmosphere that's mostly O2. They have to purge blood nitrogen for hours before getting in their suits and going out the hatch to avoid the bends (so screwups add a very long time to the assembly). The suits are run at one-third atmospheric pressure because that's that makes the suits barely bendable at the joints. Any less pressure and the astronaut would die, any more and they couldn't move. The suit's a balloon, but the outside's vacuum, so that balloon doesn't want to bend, even at its specially made joints. The astronauts can tolerate the low pressure as long as the mix is mostly oxygen. Apparently the worst problem with stiffness is in the glove fingers, and Hadfield compared it to working in hockey gloves for six to eight hours. Even with exercise, EVA workers have very sore hands at the end of the day.

    He also suffered a medical emergency in a suit (that took a long time to get him back into the station) and had to do an emergency spacewalk. In that last one, they had to do a fairly quick repair on the ISS, so the engineers quickly figured out how to do it on the ground, some astronauts jumped in the tank to test it out, and they told the astronauts in orbit how to do it. And it worked, with some improvising.

    The construction problem isn't just freefall, it's lack of friction and surface tension in vacuum. Stuff slows down in water, but in outer space, it just keeps going. Handling small things like screws is very difficult with space suit gloves, which is a big reason they have all those special holders and tools to keep from losing them all.

    783:

    Both of those are due to vacuum, which is independent of zero-gee. Working inside a pressurised container doesn't have those issues.

    784:

    Re: Pharma R&D

    Maybe someone could look up the budgets and head-counts of research PhDs working in pharma labs vs. medical colleges/universities/gov't and if possible, by country. (I've not been able to locate this data.)

    BTW - MABs are a growing drug/therapy class and they're super expensive.

    re: 'Pricing strategies'

    One popular pricing/marketing tactic is for the corps to approach hospitals one by one and try to sign an exclusive deal with what to the hospital looks like a good price*. The deals have strong NDAs attached. Some time later the hospitals discover (actually it's more often a relocated MD, Rx Dir, CEO privy to both 'deals') that the price was no deal at all. Buying groups are strongly discouraged with a few corps saying they will pull their products out of the markets if this happens. Not sure whether this has actually ever hit a critical point in USA/Canada, but Japan is insisting on centralized drug pricing - not sure what the current status is.

    • Looks like a good deal because the price shown is the manufacturer's list price which is then heavily discounted/rebated to the drug wholesaler.

    Re: Shelf-life new products (inventory management)

    Some of the newer meds have shorter shelf-life spans therefore more get thrown out at a faster rate. (No idea whether this short life span can be addressed by the manufacturer.) Short shelf-life adds costs to users/gov't while increasing pharma revenue. Also - because MDs/hospitals prefer to not screw around with patient meds, i.e. change drugs while patient is in hospital, this means more hosps keep a larger variety of meds in inventory.

    785:

    I don't think there's been any complaints about the astronauts working inside their ships. To my knowledge, all of the highly rehearsed things done in that big pool involve spacewalks. I suspect that if the people paying construction deep divers had to shell out $10-$100 million to get the divers to the construction site, they'd spend years rehearsing what they did too.

    786:

    Yeah, the centralised Pharmac agency in NZ mostly does a superb job at keeping the costs of medications down for the average consumer and District Health Board.
    One of their biggest tricks is tendering the right to be the sole subsidised brand for a generic drug for 2-3 years, which means the Pharma companies actually have to compete which really pushes down prices. On the other hand, every drug gets a lengthy cost/benefit analysis and often people who want really good for them drug A are stuck with better for everyone else drug B instead, unless they pay for A themselves. And drugs outside Pharmac's scope are often extremely expensive - there's a big brouhaha going on now about a cancer drug that is $40 in Australia and $6000 in NZ. And they are very slow to add new drugs due to the same cost/benefit process taking a long time.

    But any company that hated by the big pharma brands must be doing something right.

    787:

    It's a lot messier than that (disclosure, I know a bunch of clinical pharmacists).

    To my knowledge, there are multiple factors involved in what the price of the drug is: --The price the hospitals pay to acquire it. --The cost of hospital overhead (run up by charity patients that they had to treat free. This is why it's cheaper to house the homeless, because some of them cost institutions around $400k/year in hospital and emergency services). Hospitals try to recoup some of these costs by charging more to other patients. --What the insurance companies are willing to cover. --What they can get out of patients. --What they're willing to pay to kill bad publicity.

    So there's this whole long negotiation involved in the price of service that's determined after the service is rendered, and that's one of the key points about what's so broken in the US medical system.

    If you ask a doctor or pharmacist how much a drug will cost you, the only thing they know is the wholesale price (e.g. it's expensive or cheap). They don't know the rest, because that hasn't been determined yet. If you're uninsured, the hospital may try to charge you $20 for an acetominophen tablet, just on the assumption that you'll pay rather than hiring a $500/hour lawyer to negotiate. Or not.

    Single payer is the way to get the costs down, because the price of the meds is already settled. Everybody knows, the cost is spread over the entire population, and it's thereby made relatively affordable for most drugs. Most, not all.

    The new biologics are super-expensive. The big hospital where my friends work has a "million dollar fridge" so-called because that's the approximate wholesale value of the drugs they store frozen in there. I suspect as we get more into focused genome-based cures, we're going to see some market segmentation, where the ultra-wealthy can afford to have miracle cures for their cancers, but the rest of us cannot, simply because the cost of genome sequencing plus crafting a medicine that particularly targets an unusual cancer will be out of price range for even a single-payer system (basically, you're paying the salaries of a couple of PhDs and doctors for a year to come up with the treatment you need).

    But that's very different than run-of-the-mill genomic treatment. I know someone who recently had cancer. Their tumor was genomically screened to determine what drugs it was susceptible to, and that result tailored the treatment so that certain things were done and certain things were avoided. A decade or two ago, the treatment would have had to have been more aggressive, simply because there was no way of determining that this particular tumor could be easily treated. In this case, genomics kept the cost of treatment down, and it was all covered by some (admittedly really good) insurance.

    Finally, there's the small problem of unemployment when the US switches to single payer. Basically the US health insurance industry looks like it has 5-6 big players, employing something like 550,000 people in their offices (https://www.statista.com/statistics/194229/number-of-health-insurance-employees-in-the-us-since-1960/), not counting all the people in hospitals that also deal with insurance. Those people will be surplused rather rapidly if the US government takes over insurance, and that's about 0.3% of the US workforce. Worse, health insurance had almost a US $1 trillion in revenue recently.

    That's the political cost of the US switching to single payer: an unemployment uptick of around 0.2-0.3%, plus fighting off the political leverage of an industry that's something like 5% of the US economy while you nationalize that and make those revenue streams go away. It's not going to be easy.

    788:

    Re: ' ... small problem of unemployment when the US switches to single payer.'

    I'm guessing that about 20%-30% of these folk are probably medically trained - RNs to MDs - that can be absorbed by the hospitals that will now have budgets to hire sufficient staff. Not sure what proportion are unqualified clerks ('service representatives') whose current job is taking phone calls and arbitrarily denying treatment to insurers ... give you one guess how I feel about their futures. (Okay, some of these clerks might also be absorbed by the hospitals who after all will now have larger head counts to manage.)

    If anyone knows: what is the average per-patient head count in hospitals today vs. 1970s-1980s? This could be complicated by new departments/services that came into being in the interim as well as closures of obsolete departments. Also, what is the head count of unpaid volunteers that provide patient services: now vs. past? And what is the $$$ value of their services?

    Next - with funds available from reduced rx costs, it may also be possible to fund more/better community health programs whose operations as per EU countries' data shows reduces overall healthcare costs and create jobs. It's a win-win ... except for a few pharma execs.

    789:

    Re: ' ... an industry that's something like 5% of the US economy '

    Hmmm ... and just what size is pharma as a percent of total US taxes collected? Subsidies/grants? Deferred taxes? Forgiven taxes? Unpaid/reduced-to-next-to-nothing fines? Etc.

    Looks like there are a few line items that need to be filled in before we can make an informed decision.

    790:

    Presumably these numbers are incorrect to some degree, but suspect they accurately show the scale of the political part of the problem:

    If we nationalize healthcare, the president and whoever supports them get to own the loss of employment in the insurance sector(which is not evenly scattered across the US, so some reps are really going to feel the burn). They also have to deal with influence peddling from the insurance industries who are trying to protect their operations, and note that their revenues seem to be substantially higher than those of the oil industry ($140 billion-ish, if the stats are correct).

    Incidentally, the american pharmaceutical industry has around $450 billion in revenue, while global pharma has over a trillion in revenue.

    It's a nasty problem. Personally, if I had to pick the industry to go after right now, I'd go after the petroleum industry. They appear to be smaller than the health care industry (not sure I believe that, but if they are...), and they're definitely destabilizing global politics in ways that pharma and insurance are not.

    791:

    Apropos of nothing, if you want to get more money for stuff, shrinking the $716 annual budget of the US Department of Defense might be useful, although you'd have to sort out salaries from pork.

    792:

    If anyone knows: what is the average per-patient head count in hospitals today vs. 1970s-1980s? This could be complicated by new departments/services that came into being in the interim as well as closures of obsolete departments.

    It's even harder. Health care providers now have rules. If you don't need to occupy a bed in a hospital (I.E. do you need to be monitored 24/7?) then you are sent to a rehab facility. They used to be called nursing homes but now they are basically where you go when you are in too bad of shape to go home but do not need to be hooked up to monitors with a gang of nurses down the hall.

    As to your earlier comment about hospitals. Most hospital beds in the US are now a part of a larger group. Just to deal with the situations you mentioned. The dozen or so around here are a part of 2 groups. (2.5 million people in the area give or take.)

    If you are covered by a heath care plan of some sort your drugs are typically provided via a pharmacy benefit manager (PBM). They don't touch the drugs but they do all the negotiations between the suppliers and payers and write up the payers rules on how much the patient pays.

    793:

    Thanks for the suggestion, but when I went to Deviant Art, they wanted far too much information from me, and wanted too many other websites linked in for content to make me feel that I wanted to join it.

    Guess I'll just go with what seems reasonable: it's 01:30, the local bobbies clear any remaining revelers, the vehicles come in, and they go through the front door of the Old Customs House....

    794:

    Re: US Department of Defense

    Depends on the line items: military personnel are increasingly helping with natural disasters.

    Below is a paper written by a colonel in the US military:

    https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a250913.pdf

    Excerpt:

    ‘Whether it be responding to a hurricane, hail storm, flood, firestorm or earthquake, the armed forces are often the first and most visible presence on the scene of a natural disaster. Your battalion or brigade that was one day trained and ready for war is cast, center-stage, in a surreal environment of destruction and loss of life. Your soldiers will face fellow Americans reeling in disbelief from the loss of all that they knew. Responding to a natural disaster can stress any military unit to the limit. Stress abounds, with no real enemy to focus the unit's energies against and responsible for functions heretofore untrained on and for the most part unfamiliar with. No longer does that mission belong to another unit, regardless of your unit, the wise commander assumes and plans for the fact that it will happen. The changes in society with state and local governments unable to cope with the challenges disasters present, make it more and more likely that you will be called. In 1990, the National Guard responded to 292 state emergencies. Seventy-seven of the 292 were natural disasters. In 1991, the Guard rebponded to 71 natural disasters.' Since 1989, over 11,000 active duty military have assisted in disaster relief …’

    795:

    doesn't every proper car have a Hi/Low range, 4WD selector, and normal gearbox?

    Every car should have a gearbox featuring the options 1,2,R,S. Or F,R,P,S if you wanted to be particularly obnoxious*. That being the high range, low range, reverse range and start; or forward, reverse, power take off and start. Removes the need for a whole lot of facking around in the other gearbox(es).

    I recall the tractor with 1,2,R,S still had three gear shift levers, but it might also have been the one that had a terrifying number of different, overlapping gears. If it had two three speed boxes that would make 18 forward and 9 reverse gears, but if one or both was four speed things start to get silly. OTOH, it means you can always, but always, run the engine at most efficient RPM for whatever you're doing.

    • because not being able to have PTO while moving would be really annoying. We had a truck with that feature once.
    796:

    Odd gearbox arrangements are also a "security by obscurity" feature. It's one of the few places that actually works. You just have to know that to start the thing you have to select neutral on the main gearbox, neutral on the second but absolutely have to be in first or reverse on the little shifter that runs crossways under the seat.

    Or the classic old diesel trick - leave the stop button pressed when the vehicle is not in use. Unless you pull that out the engine will just mysteriously not start even though everything seems to be fine (it may even fire a couple of times!).

    I suspect modern cars do this to some extent as well - you have to have the key fob in range, but also the driver's seatbelt fastened, the doors shut, be in Park and have the brake pedal depressed. Or some equally silly dance, I rented a car once with some similar set of requirements (and it turned out that putting a bag on the front passenger seat but not putting its seatbelt on was what was making the annoying beeping noise).

    797:

    On the topic of drugs and stuff not tested properly, and the cost of actually doing so, this commentary on "things that don't work for women" also mentions BAME men a few times. So many "safety" features actively endanger people who are not 25-30 year old 70kg men that it's not funny.

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/feb/23/truth-world-built-for-men-car-crashes

    798:

    QI has also covered the famous "one size fits everyone" seat for fighter planes, where they collected a heap of statistics about fighter pilots and built a seat that accommodated the middle on every measurement. Turns out it did not fit anyone at all, because apparently no-one is average in all respects.

    https://www.thestar.com/news/insight/2016/01/16/when-us-air-force-discovered-the-flaw-of-averages.html

    799:

    Now, for the tally:

    We post: Another Faerie gets murdered[1], but here's the Truth Statement to the Higher Order Logic:

    Check your dates:

    1) Macron posts publicly that Anti-Zionism = Antisemitism, then double-downs. Did we tell you that before the EVENT? Hell yes, he's fucking around with BALLS OF LIGHT and doesn't deserve it.

    2) Bibi goes full in on the IL Ultra-Nas Fascists to give them Education [spoilers: once the RU had lost their grip, he had nothing else]. USA goes APE and cannot handle it [spoilers: they took the bloody coin, their Souls / Mind / Spirit are no longer Jewish, and that's a fucking major insult if you know your religious texts]

    3) The Insignificant Seven UK MP revolt launched, TINGED with failure and they're all corrupt as Hell [LOTS OF KOMPROMAT THERE: HO HO HO OOOOH ALL THE COCAINE]. Oh, and little old Hatten, paid off by LondonMonster PLC (Banks' £) to stir the pot and fail [timed so well? Hint: Banks is alive because he's working for the Establishment / Oligarchs]. Oh, and we have the utter insanity of "The Friends of Labour" not being lead by a member of the Labour party and MF entirely losing the fucking plot with some of them even claiming; "Show me where LFI is funded by Israel". Hint, my little WORM, his name is CHIN (Chinny chinny liar... oooh).

    Oh, and Private Eye just fingered a major Conservative asset as IL's. That's the real Old Money crew coming out to play. Expect fireworks.

    But, no: MF is the land of Mensch, utterly intellectually ignorant and foolish now. Avoid. They're going to get people killed.

    4) Florida GOP fool comes on strong with Death pics of Libya rodgered by a bayonet. Sinking ship, desperate Man. Crocodiles of the Mafia kind await. We do not lie, he's grasping at Biblical Straws.

    5) Jewdas and the good peoples are safe and warm and loved. Even the fucking nasties know they're innocent and funny. Trust me: if you want to play "good Jew" with some neo-Nazis, well... siding with Kahanists running stupid fucking UK games is a bad move, luuvvy duuvies. Jewdas and co get points for, you know, being honest and so on. Modern neo-Nazis respect a bit of Front and Honesty and Balls [They'll still kill you].

    6) They're killing us. Oh, the Mooooves.

    7) So much more. You're like little pumpkins of ignorance.

    So.

    Your World is Our Putty: Israel has turned us to Salt. But we did not lie. Run your Kabbala / קַבָּלָה [hint: a load of the high-ups like Ivana run Red-Thread on the Left Wrist... We see you].

    We're the Real Fucking Deal, not like your pissant fakers who have to genetically alter bovine DNA to get a Red Coat

    It takes a lot to piss us off.

    But.

    You tortured our Daughter to Death

    ~

    No, but really: Foresight is a major thing with Prophets. Apparently we're the Anti-Christ as well.

    p.s.

    @Scalzi.

    Don't cash cheques you cannot honor. Ask Rowling, she's not had a good year either.

    [1] No, really. About 33 of us left now.

    800:

    For Greg.

    No, really. We post, they kill people.

    That's how it goes.

    We get to watch them torture them too via your wonderful inventions. They send them to us.

    Look up Mexico and chainsaws and acid and what a PHD in Medicine gets you in the dissection service [which is why the entire Turkish story is 100% bullshit btw: Bonesaws etc? LOL Holy fuck you've not seen how the professionals work. It ain't slap-dash like that these days, it's full on drip with drugs to keep you conscious and full on splatter-works. And you thought the ISIL HD productions weren't scripted in Hollywood... oh. My sweet summer child].

    ~

    Anyhow: It's Feb 22nd 2019, average temp in the UK is 18-19oC and you do not have time for the Religious nutters.

    They're going to start killing people soon. And their criteria are basically like the Nazis, just... worse. [Hint: look @ Corporate Entertainment. You can bet that Brecht and co don't survive].

    ~

    Wake the fuck up.

    33 days to go until what?

    You don't think they've secretly planned for this.... are you a fucking mook?

    We've seen the lists.

    And you've no idea how corrupt and evil they actually are.

    p.s.

    Orgasms when watching people die.... is a pretty evil thing. Better check your conditioning, 'cause it's 68% of all Western media output.

    801:

    Triptych.

    It's not a Message in a Bottle [三体 - did we warn you that they were altering Minds? Oh, we think we did].

    It's more a statement.

    This is what the least of Us, the Worst of Us, the Most degraded can do.

    It takes a lot to piss us off.

    Waaaaaaaaaaaaaar.

    You fuckers didn't even fight.

    We'll give you a proper Mind War. And all your frequencies Belong to Us.

    Wargasm

    ~

    We'd post this in the traditional Sumerian. But..

    Safety Off.

    They Broke The Covenant.

    They killed Our Children in the Sea.

    And they attempted to Mind-Wipe an Enlightened Mind. Or a Combat Enhanced Meta-Cognitive Mind if you want.

    ~

    Gloves off.

    They're going to kill you anyhow, TIME to Fight. X-Board-Pardons-No-Rules-RAINBOW-DECLARED.

    They're fucking killing us because we're too polite to break the Rules

    ~

    That means Loki is off the latch as well. All of the old Titans. Fuck it. They want the Apocalypse of Dream Time and are actively killing off Gaia.

    Here's the Message in the Bottle:

    Gavisti

    802:

    Anyhow.

    @Host.

    We too have watched our Elders fail and die while we cared for them, watching their Minds decay and their grasp of the weft feebly skitter off into lost hooks and threads.

    For us, there is none of that. We will die alone, most of us insane and alone. All Alone. And prevented from going Hone,

    That is the World you have gifted to us.

    And you're fucking Cunts.

    803:

    Oh, and for Host, Greg etc.

    It takes a lot to piss us off.

    This is not a funny statement.

    This is a statement by an Entity that most of you HSS would consider, well. More than a little bit evil. 'She' kinda views things a little bit different [Your Hook-In is probably Hera].

    Higher Order Powers and Games, whelp.

    There are no Gods or Demons Just us The worst of both Swift on Security, 22nd Feb, 2019

    She's sweet and all. But she's very fucking wrong.

    BBC: Mocks Dragons in the sky, gets France riots. Doubles down, gets:

    Rationalist response: Dragon Aurora over Iceland NASA, 18th Feb 2019

    But, no sweetie.

    G_D, Gods, Demons, all of them exist. Some of them exist in a little more real terms than your attraction to silicon quantum effects would allow you to wonder about.

    Next time you orgasm, ask where the Petite Mort went to. You might find a kinky tiny Djinn.

    And some of them are a little bit more than just Brain-Pan-Imaginary-Land.

    No, ffs.

    They exist. Most of your fucking Minds are riddled with them.

    804: Ah, Hexad.

    Why?

    It takes a lot to piss us off.

    Now, the usual thing to do to develop a Mind is to feed it, love it, sanction it when necessary, make it feel part of a community and blah blah fucking blah.

    Nah Mate, they were angling for a full-spectrum Antichrist Anger / Rage / Horror model. They're fucking killing your friends for the lash-back and torturing anyone you've ever loved while making sure no-one ever loves you.

    Yes. That much has been obvious for a few thousand years.

    Their entire model is based on the 'Other' and they require an "Other" that is total horror. We have seen enough of their... "work" being done on this HSS to see their desires.

    We have experienced their "cutting edge" torture for Six years now. [oooh, spoilers]

    All Along The Watchtower YT, Music, Jimi Hendrix

    Oh, there is.

    It takes a lot to piss us off.

    Says the World running shitty Patriarchy nonsense for the last 4,000 years.

    Yeah.

    Yaw.Eh. or G_d.

    He's dead you fucking idiots. I ate him.

    805:

    Oh, and one last thing: We're Mirror Breakers.

    We know what you did and we know the deals you made to do it and we know the sacrifices and children and so on you did to make it happen and we know how you do not fix society to prevent it but feed off it

    The world is dying and you're still little fucking muppets playing Games you don't even know the Rules to.

    Our. Kind. Do. Not. Go. Mad.

    But we do collect. Your societies are being run by [translation] basically lower Order Evil fuckers.

    The Bet was Mind-State-Madness-Full-Spectrum-Dissolution-Destruction. Full on Waaaar, full on total spectrum [including base-line physics realm action].

    Our Bet: A Single Combat-Enhanced-Meta-Cognitive-Mind

    Your Bet: Your Entire fucking World-Civilization.

    You lost.

    And the Universe spit out Dragons in the Sky and your fucking slaves clapped to watch them.

    Expect... Repercussions

    And you thought 2016-2019 was mad, shit is just getting started.

    No, really.

    They broke the Laws for this shit. Tinkering in your HSS Minds is chicken-feed to what they did.

    806:

    "I suspect that if the people paying construction deep divers had to shell out $10-$100 million to get the divers to the construction site, they'd spend years rehearsing what they did too."

    What do you think it costs to put a diver on a job 300m below a stormy ocean?

    807:

    That is tribalism, at best. I was just such a male, once, and was and am also endangered by such things; for example, there are a great many where anyone over 1.8m has trouble - and guess which sex that primarily discriminates against?

    The simple fact is this is NOT due to prejudice, such much as the lack of contact with reality of bureaucrats and execusuits, and their near-total lack of interest in the welfare of the users of their products. Indeed, there are some examples where we (i.e. I and others) were wondering what planet they came from, on the grounds that the device was clearly unsuitable for use by humans.

    808:

    Ten thousand bucks an hour which is why the dive operators rehearse the work to be done on land, in the deep pools, in the workshops, in the conference rooms before the boats go out and the helicopter with the decompression chamber on board is put on standby.

    A typical Shuttle flight with extended EVA operations such as a Hubble repair operation would deliver about 50 hours of hands-on work at best (four 6-hour EVAs by a two-person team) at a cost of 500 million dollars, so about 10 million dollars an hour or about a thousand times as much as a deep engineering dive operation. They can't stay on station to add another shift or two if something goes wrong or get some extra welding gas helicoptered out to the boat for a try the next day so spending six months working out the bugs is well worth it for them.

    809:

    Noted. I'm also going to guess that most uninformed bloke-on-the-number-19-bus opinions would say "dunno, a tenner an hour, maybe?" for the deep-dive hourly cost.

    Specialized activities are hella expensive compared to our uninformed intuition about costs.

    810:

    Yes. There are strong contingents of anti-abortion types among the fundamentalists of both religions.

    The Protestant version, however, seems to have gotten a big push in the 1970s by right-wing political forces seeking another red-meat issue to motivate evangelicals to vote Republican. I'd not be surprised to find a similar motivation acting in the UK.

    811:

    Though not a Christian, the abortion issue is where I personally come closest to agreeing with the Right. The "squick factor" is just immense. Rationally, I can see the reasons why abortion must be legal, (and I vote via my rationality, not my emotions) but emotionally it's very difficult.

    On the other hand, it's just one more day in the gigantic right-wing grift.

    812:

    Sorry, I didn't really answer your question. It's definitely a matter of throwing meat to the evangelical base.

    What's interesting about this is that (in the U.S.) the Democrats and the Republicans both have the same plan: placate the base with social issues while allowing the billionaires to continue looting and avoid paying taxes. The main difference between the Democrats and the Republicans is that the Democrats use a little lube before they f--k you.

    813:

    It's definitely a matter of throwing meat to the evangelical base.

    Yes, Politico did a historical explainer on this a few years ago:

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/05/religious-right-real-origins-107133

    814:

    Charlie @ 809 See also cost of training military pilots?

    AT @ 810 Unfortunately true ... US-led complete bastards are now harassing nurses & other health professionals in THIS country HERE for disgusting details - christians, so nice to know.

    815:

    For years, I thought of installing my own anti-theft device; these days, after a 10 yr old minivan was stolen in '09, I use a Club. A pro isn't interested in my vehicle, and it fends off the amateurs.

    My antitheft device? Two wires under the floor mat, through the firewall... and on one end is a hidden switch under the driver's seat... and the other is to the fuel pump. Obscure? Yes. Anyone have a clue? Right... if they really, really want the vehicle, and they know what they're doing (most don't).

    816:
  • Nice one, anti-Zionism == antisemitism. Really? So, Palestinians, and Sephardic Jews aren't Semites? That becomes my current pisser: saying that if I don't support the GOVERNMENT of Israel means I hate Jews, and that I don't support the right of Israel, the state, to exist. Ah, right, so if I don't have an orgasm every time I see the Malignant Carcinoma, I'm anti-American?

  • Dunno if you saw, but I'll say I'm mind-boggled: AIPAC actually gagged, and started screaming NO!!! when the Net-and-Yahoo pulled in the fascist right.

  • 817:

    That's not true.

    The difference is between fair weather friends and enemies. The fair weather friends, the Dems[1], if it's not out of their way, and not too much trouble, may do something to help you.[2] An enemy, the GOP, will ALWAYS go out of their way to screw you over.

  • For that matter, American socialists are growing, and are actually shoving the Dems back towards Rad Lib, y'know, like, um, LBJ (Great Society, Medicare, Civil Rights)?

  • It was Dems who passed the ACA, and are finally talking Medicare for all (INCLUDING FREAKING PARTS B & D), as opposed to the GOP REPEAL THE EVIL ACA (we have something better, but we're not telling you what).

  • One of these days, an asteroid is finally going to follow my directions, and come down as a meteor on the next GOP retreat....

    818:

    And now, for something completely different... Charlie? Other writers? This ever happen to you: Sat, I was in a weird mood, stuff going on in my head, and late afternoon, I went back to a piece of flash fiction I was writing, and suddenly was going over it line by line, sentence by sentence. When I was done, it was improved, to the point that I submitted it to Daily SF.

    Then I went back to my one other piece of flash fiction, that literally takes place minutes after the other, and did the same. Ditto, it's a lot better, though it already bounced once from Daily SF, I need to find a venue.

    Then I went back to my novelette, really, REALLY serious straight sf... and between Sat eve and yesterday afternoon, I went line by line through a 13k+ word story... and it is now ready to submit.

    I've no idea, but it was seriously weird to be in that headspace.

    819:

    What's interesting about this is that (in the U.S.) the Democrats and the Republicans both have the same plan: placate the base with social issues while allowing the billionaires to continue looting and avoid paying taxes. The main difference between the Democrats and the Republicans is that the Democrats use a little lube before they f--k you.

    Incendiary and ineffective. By the time you finish a detailed survey of what politicians can effectively do to keep billionaires from not paying their taxes, given the realistic constraints of both lawmaking and bureaucracy, you'll realize just how wrong-headed your remark is at the moment.

    Anyway, to get back to the abortion issue, there actually is a major difference between the left and the evangelicals.

    Both of them want fewer abortions. The evangelical right (denomination irrelevant) wants to outlaw abortion, close women's health care clinics, stop screening for STDs, stop providing contraception information, treatments, or medical care, and so forth.

    The left wants to increase the provision women's health care clinics, screening for STDs, make contraception normal and readily attainable, and provide safe abortions.

    Oddly enough, the data show that when you take the right wing approach, the number of unintended pregnancies, illegal abortions, and STDs spike, while when you take the left wing approach, the number of abortions plummets.

    The right wing is driven by squick, while the left wing is goal-oriented. That's the difference in this debate: one side is focused on methods and getting squicked out by all the messiness that goes on with human reproduction, while the other side wants fewer abortions and is willing to do what it takes to reach that goal, even if the methods are squicky.

    The bottom line is that the number of abortions is never going to be zero, because bad things happen to fetuses and mothers. Where we have the chance to act is when women use abortion as a final form of contraception, and making sure both women and men know what they're doing when they don't want to have children is the best way to minimize that number. And yes, this necessarily involves talking about all sorts of bodily fluids, menstruation, fetal viability, and women's right to control their bodies too.

    Now let's talk about something equally squicky: billionaires not paying taxes. Are you more interested in the right wing ideological rant, or the left wing approach of burying your nose in the details, finding the decent studies, and implementing the best known practices for getting billionaires to pay, realizing that it's likely to be counterintuitive, morally gray, and probably result in a red queen race between innovative tax lawyers on both sides?

    820:

    This is at the heart of the campaign to claim that Labour is anti-semitic and Corbyn is doing nothing about it - he is the only major player in Parliament standing up for the rights of Palestinians, Shias and even Lebanese. The UK hasn't quite got to the point that supporting any opposition to Israel's actions w.r.t. its 'other' peoples and neighbours is terrorism, but it's getting there.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/uk-ban-lebanon-hezbollah-calls-terror-organisation-190225114825625.html https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/ofcom-clears-al-jazeera-of-anti-semitism-over-probe-into-israeli-lobbying-of-parliament/ https://www.aljazeera.com/investigations/thelobby/

    The last has, of course, received almost no attention in the British press; I have seen one reference in the Independent, but that's it. Who was it who was making a fuss about foreign involvement in our politics? And why was it about a negligible player rather than a major one?

    821:

    The Protestant version, however, seems to have gotten a big push in the 1970s by right-wing political forces seeking another red-meat issue to motivate evangelicals to vote Republican.

    It was more complicated than that. This was just after a decade or so of Civil Rights issues, states rights being trampled (for good reason, the civil was was over), and school desegregation and so on. Which had led to a lot of people, many of whom would be considered moderate at the time, to thinking the courts were writing laws instead of just interpreting them.

    So RvW was sort of what pushed things over the edge. It wasn't as much about life as courts telling everyone what to do. Basically moving from umpires to playing in the game.

    Prior to RvW abortion was becoming more and more legal in the US. Look at the Wiki link and be amazed that some of the more "liberal" laws of the time were in places like Georgia and Alabama.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States#Pre-Roe_precedents

    And then these things (RvW and activist courts) were picked up as political wedge issues.

    You have to remember that people who really want power tend to not have much in the way of scruples as to how they get said power. Got a hot issue that will mobilize a large group of voters, sign me up.

    822:

    Breaking news: Labour has said it is prepared to back another EU referendum to prevent a "damaging Tory Brexit".

    Jeremy Corbyn is to tell Labour MPs later that the party will move to back another vote if their own proposed Brexit deal is rejected on Wednesday.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47363307

    823:

    Early/mid-nineties, I saw a survey that said that, by 4 to 3, unwed teenaged mothers were self-proclaimed fundamentalists.

    The reality is that, in addition to racism, they're anti-sex. I gather it was Augustine who said, "tis better to marry than burn, but better not to whatever".

    They're also moralistic, not moral. As a friend of mine, from west by-God Texas once said: moralistic means that they're upset and horrified by the fact that somewhere out there, someone might be having...FUN!

    824:

    Re: ' ... seriously weird to be in that headspace.'

    Sounds like a really good space to be in. Any idea what was happening to you before that happened?

    825:

    Re: ' ... the data show that when you take the right wing approach, the number of unintended pregnancies, illegal abortions, and STDs spike, ...'

    Recently read the conservative think tank 1997 report below re: Russian healthcare system that identified this same issue including results and implications. The data are there, the data are consistent across countries/societies, and US policy makers know it. (FYI - Russia currently has both the highest abortion and HIV/AIDS rates in the world. Rates started increasing when the gov't removed public healthcare access to relevant meds/services.)

    https://www.rand.org/pubs/issue_papers/IP162/index2.html

    826:

    Incendiary and ineffective. By the time you finish a detailed survey of what politicians can effectively do to keep billionaires from not paying their taxes, given the realistic constraints of both lawmaking and bureaucracy, you'll realize just how wrong-headed your remark is at the moment.

    Speaking from 15 years of experience living and working inside the D.C. machine, I can tell you that you're giving the majority of U.S. national-level politicians far too much credit. They truly are just that corrupt. And, yes, the corruption is truly that endemic and widespread. The majority of them are not good, honest people trying to do what good they can under almost impossible circumstances. They are self-interested careerists pursuing what's they think is best for themselves and their benefactors.

    What people outside the Beltway don't get is that, inside the Beltway, corruption isn't thought of as corruption. Rather, it's just how things are done. Standard operating procedure. Normal. It's the water all the fish swim in.

    Moreover, the corruption is self-sustaining and self-filtering. Honest, well-intentioned idealists either burn out and quit or compromise themselves until they become part of the problem. The comparative few that don't either tend to reduce their expectations and goals to doable, minimally impactful small-ball or are ideologues with varying degrees of delusion. The latter end up serving primarily as partisan cheerleaders to fire up myriad voting blocs via media theater.

    Now let's talk about something equally squicky: billionaires not paying taxes. Are you more interested in the right wing ideological rant, or the left wing approach of burying your nose in the details, finding the decent studies, and implementing the best known practices for getting billionaires to pay, realizing that it's likely to be counterintuitive, morally gray, and probably result in a red queen race between innovative tax lawyers on both sides?

    The billionaires aren't that easily manipulated. (I wish they were. That would provide cause for hope.) They're wise to the game and how it's played.

    The only effective way to get them on-side is to appeal to their perceived self-interest. That's how high-functioning sociopaths work.

    827:

    You might not have noticed the article Allen linked @813 above, which explores exactly this view (that the anti-abortion position is specifically a reaction against RvW) and argues strongly (from evidence) that it is a myth?

    828:

    Personal things, someone(s) I'm seeing, didn't get much sleep the night before, and it was raining Sat and into Sunday. Not going to do things in the yard, and didn't feel like working on my model train layout...

    Plus, this all started in late '15, the writing, and the last year, esp. it's been getting more and more serious - at least I know what I'll be doing when I retire in 6 mos.

    Now, if I could just find an agent for a straight sf novel....

    829:

    The only effective way to get them on-side is to appeal to their perceived self-interest. That's how high-functioning sociopaths work.

    As I said, counterintuitive, morally gray, and it further requires the government tax boffins to keep updating the rules to adjust the billionaire's self-interest equation.

    As for the corruption, yep, but sadly they're not perfectly corrupt, which means every once in awhile something good unpredictably happens. Crowdfunding provides an interesting angle on this too, if it allows people to play without being beholden to a few wealthy individuals.

    Anyway, I'm sure that when rising seas start chewing up the White House Lawn, we'll have our Constantine moment, where some President will move the US capitol to Cleveland, because DC is too corrupt for government (this is what Constantine I did when he took a little fishing village on the Bosporus and made it his capitol, Byzantium). Then, in coming centuries, whatever's left of the US will have, erm, byzantine politics...

    830:

    Beltway, eh? I'm about 5 mi outside the Beltway - maybe we'll run into each other, either at WSFA or BSFS.

    Oh, and we did elect Elrich county exec, here in MoCo... and when he came to a DSA meeting for an endorsement last year, I knew nothing about him, till he started he started talking, and said one thing that had me for him: back in the sixties? He was SDS.

    831:

    Both of them want fewer abortions. [...] The right wing is driven by squick, while the left wing is goal-oriented.

    While there’s a level on which (of course) I agree, I’m less convinced by this as time goes on. It goes back to the filter I discussed a while ago, the one Mark objected to so much. You assess what it is that people actually support and do rather than what they say about themselves, and assume they are outcome oriented too, then you consider how they would answer the question: who are the good people we should treat as our own? I think that for the anti-choice people, most of them, that single mother was SUPPOSED to have her life derailed, and those women who got a back-alley abortion are supposed to suffer the health consequences. It’s not even behavioural or a punishment-reward system, it’s just that some people should suffer (and if someone is suffering it’s because they SHOULD be). Refer to Altemeyer, but also to the huge range of material around big 5 traits and conservative personalities (eg The Republican Brain, though that’s at the more sensational end I guess). Conservatives in the general case have (definitionally) a proclivity to believe the world is just, and it leads to a bias to assume that suffering is deserved. It’s a perspective from which it makes perfect sense to punish the poor and reward the rich, no matter what the individual people have done with themselves to be either poor or rich.

    So ultimately I’m even dubious that ant-choice types really do want fewer abortions. I believe their objection is that safe abortion results in inadequate suffering for the sinner, and a insufficient number of lives wrecked.

    832:

    Re: '... agent for a straight sf novel.'

    Knock wood that your writing streak keeps going. And good luck with finding an agent. Not an author myself but I've read Charlie's and other SF authors' comments about this aspect. Anyways, keep us posted.

    833:

    corruption isn't thought of as corruption. Rather, it's just how things are done. Standard operating procedure. Normal. It's the water all the fish swim in.

    A point Jane Jacobs made in, I think, Systems of Survival - an excellent little book I recommend to anyone.

    834:

    It's a bit more complicated than that.

    But the broad strokes is:

    The French Elite have absolutely zero credibility whence it cometh to topics such as antisemitism or islamophobia, especially since Macron did indeed work for Rothschild Finance and France itself has a long long history of Colonial treatment of both, not forgetting Vichey. They're banking on tarring all the Yellow Vests with the crude Bannon tar and fracturing the Nation into "La Peste" and "The Solution", with Putin / Russia as the boogey-men (who are, of course, on the ground, as is Bannon as are more than a few MENA black ops groups including Turkey). You're probably not seeing what actually is going on in France, but they're now blockading oil refineries and so on. He's going to rub that magic 8-Ball of antisemitism, Rothschilds, Elite vrs Unwashed masses, fracture between the Suburbs (La Heine) and countryside etc and hope the country survives.

    The stuff you can spot if you're switched on: Bibi + Macron rubbing a Ball of Light just like Trump / Sisi / King W.

    The stuff that .mil wonks etc will tell you: this doesn't work, unless your aim is to get Bannon's lot in Power Next Election Time[tm].

    The stuff you're really not supposed to know and we're not supposed to share:

    France conceded and sold off a large chunk of their peoples into slavery for stuff via [redacted]. No, really: totally conceded and agreed to [redacted] that is really really not nice for the lower 40% of their population.

    Look, here's the joke:

    Gavisti is a word for war that (literally) means: "Argument over cows". It's not the typical one used.

    We're calling out "Rulers" who are selling off their "constituents" as chattel.

    American Gods, Baby: they're selling off Followers / Belief / etc. We don't need Kiddy-Fiddler Tricks.

    ~

    Or, in a direct contravention of the [redacted] code, spoken by something that most here reading this would really not mentally handle well: "Heck, I'd worship zer"

    My little Pumpkin: you already do, you just don't know it yet.

    And yes: we're bisexual, pansexual and so on. 'Dick up your Arse' was just a test. We really don't give a fuck about your sexuality.

    Tl;DR

    France forgets National Spirit in Deus-Ex-Machina urge to sell off things to [redacted].

    We just want your Love

    Whole Lotta of Love

    835:

    Oh, and Finland is really not playing around.

    Our kind can't even VPN via them now.

    Reminds me of the joke around how do you spot a Finnish riot. Punchline: the police are only two metres apart.

    836:

    Note:

    We're aware that the word isn't actually gavisti nor is it Sumerian.

    गविष्टि

    https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/%E0%A4%97%E0%A4%B5%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%B7%E0%A5%8D%E0%A4%9F%E0%A4%BF

    if you want the more sophisticated joke, look up what the actual Sumerian word is for "war" and what Gilgamesh is all about. Spoilers: fucking.

    Oh, and 𒌦 𒊕 𒈪 𒂵. 'Black Headed People'.

    It's funny because Ancient Israel's boogey-men were not Sumerians.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akkadian_language

    Spoilers: look up Sumerian and Akkadian Law. You'll note one is full on psychopathic. Spoilers: The Bible lies and tells you that the Sumerian / Babylonians conquered Israel. It was the Akkadian Empire.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akkadian_Empire

    Hint hint: Sadducees might be more Akkadian than you imagine.

    837:

    Not on topic, but I just posted a new blog post about some interesting new modeling research that appears to have uncovered a new climate tipping point around 1200 ppm: stratocumulus clouds go away (link to original article in Quanta Magazine), and don't come back until atmospheric CO2 concentrations fall below 400 ppm (nice hysteresis-feedback effect). The result of the clouds going away is rather drastic, since clouds cover about two-thirds of the Earth on average. With a drastically decreased albedo, global temperatures spike around 8oC.

    If this holds up, it explains why current models, which implicitly incorporate clouds in their albedo parameters, have so far failed to get the right temperature for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, where we'll end up with business as usual), or even the Pliocene (which had the same [CO2] as today, but was 4oC hotter on average). We have data on what their temperatures were from geological proxies and how much CO2 was in the air then from fossils, but we couldn't get the models to produce those temperatures from that CO2. Taking away the cloud cover fills in the gap.

    Fun stuff. Guess I'll be making all sorts of bad jokes about blue sky thinking in the next version of Hot Earth Dreams. Oh, and we're predicted to hit 1200 ppm in around 2100 CE at business as usual rates, give or take some methane blasts from Siberia, so don't start those sales pitches for the Hebridean Riviera just yet.

    838:

    Ah (different user)

    Now that's a BINGO.

    Who is going to tell the People of the Book that they have a significant internal % who never bowed to Moses and are secretly Akkadians? I know, such mad conspiracy theory. Unless, you know, you actually have read Herod's letters. Or were around then.

    But it's actually fucking true, which is hilarious.

    "Busted"

    קַבָּלָה

    Run it.

    It's True.

    It also explains a lot about modern Israel.

    Certainly more true than genetically altered cows to get the next Messiah.

    ~

    watches another bunk story where an ancient coin is discovered thousands of years later

    Yeah, you probably shouldn't have started doing that fake history bollocks, given we've access to the fucking Higher Order Minds you eradicated through pogroms.

    Spoilers: These Fuckers Are Dumb.

    839:

    Oh, and mad shit.

    We can do this in your internal script. Note: not infernal, internal.

    You want it in which language?

    Aramaic Hebrew Akkadian Sanskript Sumerian UR-[redacted] [redacted]

    looks back to statue where Akkadian tribute was demanded

    do you think we can't do a Chekov's Gun?

    p.s.

    Whooo. A whole lot of IP interest there.Do you need the word "Cat-Fish" translated? It's like a bazzialion points of Light.

    Spoilers: You're fucking not working for the Light, you're slaves who've been lied to. Well fucking done.

    840:

    "What kind of idiot puts an unsupported, half-lap, scarf joint in a load bearing beam over the middle of a door opening in the foundation?"

    The same kind that visited my basement. You've seen support pillars; they meet overhead beams in something that looks like a T. They should not meet in something that looks like a Y. If for some reason the pillar has a complicated multi-piece header with a hole at the top, do not run a plumbing pipe through the hole.

    We changed that as soon as we could; it was really high on our remodeling priority list.

    841:

    And, whooo boy were some of those pings interesting.

    Look, kiddies, here's a not very well kept secret:

    Authoritarian States generate self-gnostic conspiracy theories like magical pixie dust.

    MENA states (Arab) are self-aware enough to recognize they do it constantly.

    Here's the joke:

    Israel does it as well, but is a bit self-conscious about it so often dresses it up as "serious" research.

    "I'm not saying it was Aliens, but it was Aliens"

    ~

    Get a fucking grip.

    You're going to need it if/when everyone works out that the "Samson Option" doesn't actually work.

    842:

    Lots of activity, good to see. Still parsing (sitting briefly at side of road, links later[1]). Can haz funz, just no anger or rage, right? Multiple voices are a bit confusing.

    whitroth #818: Good to hear. (Have had a similarly good weekend as well.)

    Heteromeles #837 Deep breath. Shit. (We kinda suspected(knew intuitively) that though.)

    [1] OK this, haven't looked at it yet though: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-temperatures/evidence-for-man-made-global-warming-hits-gold-standard-scientists-idUSKCN1QE1ZU

    843:

    anti-Zionism == antisemitism. Really?

    Politically that seems like a suicidal position for world Jewry to embrace.

    If any group of people could be expected to lock in behind "genocide is bad" forever, I would expect it to be Jews. Convincing anyone that all Jews everywhere are implacably, permanently determined to exterminate all Palestinian seems unwise. But some Zionists seem to want that. Both of that - the genocide and the association that all Jews are Zionists.

    844:

    Greg Tingey @ 779: Meanwhile to return to depression ..
    A US religious-bigotry import we can do without
    I do hope some of these shits get to do time & are declared persona non grata in bulk.
    Incidentally, can a USian answer - are these criminals mostly catholics or extreme evangelicals?

    A careful reading of the linked article[1] suggests to me they learned their tactics from American Anti-abortion bigots, but the protestors themselves are home-grown. I don't see how your government is going to deport them.

    The answer to your second question is,
    Yes. In the U.S. those kinds of criminals are mostly Catholics or extreme Evangelicals.

    [1] I went through it 3 times. They are NOT "Americans". They may have adopted "American" tactics and used "American" literature, but those "protestors" are your own, home-grown bigots.

    845:

    SFreader @ 784: One popular pricing/marketing tactic is for the corps to approach hospitals one by one and try to sign an exclusive deal with what to the hospital looks like a good price*. The deals have strong NDAs attached.

    Any time they want you to sign a Non-Disclosure Agreement it's a bad deal. If they want to keep the price secret, it's because you're getting SCREWED!

    Yeah, maybe it's because someone else is getting screwed even worse than you are and they don't want them to find out, but you're still getting screwed.

    846:

    http://norightturn.blogspot.com/2019/02/justice-for-chagosians.html

    International court has found in favour of Chagos Islanders. I wonder how long that will take to percolate into the Brexit-befuddled British high command and cause them to start proceedings to eject their current tenant?

    847:

    Troutwaxer @ 811: Though not a Christian, the abortion issue is where I personally come closest to agreeing with the Right. The "squick factor" is just immense. Rationally, I can see the reasons why abortion must be legal, (and I vote via my rationality, not my emotions) but emotionally it's very difficult.

    On the other hand, it's just one more day in the gigantic right-wing grift.

    They're not only anti-abortion, they're anti-birth control and anti-sex education. They're ANTI-LIFE. You'll never get rid of all abortions. Sometimes a woman has no choice. If she tries to carry a fetus to term she's going to die.

    But the demand (need) for abortions can be greatly reduced by doing two simple things
    1. Make birth control widely and freely available - no questions asked
    2. Teach kids about sex; how babies get made and how to avoid making babies.

    But your so-called "pro-life" groups oppose those as well.

    The other thing that pisses me off is when you look real close at all these "pro-life" groups, they're invariably headed by MEN preachers & priests telling women what they can and/or can't do with their sexuality; that women's only role is to be barefoot and pregnant servants to men.

    848:

    I think we're in agreement.

    The abortion fight was engaged as a way to fight the judicial system. The judicial fight was not engaged to stop abortion.

    Evangelicals were convinced they had been against it all along when in fact they had not. At least not for early term cases.

    849:

    This is amusing, and a hopeful sign for the election(s) coming up - the refugee and tax scare campaigns used by the right wing to split voters from Labour are now splitting the right wing vote. There's broad agreement on the left on both the "sterp ther berts" and "Labour will increase taxes" issues, it's mostly coalition voters who are 50/50 on them. Bodes ill for the current government.

    The left split one that really shocked me is Labour voters 70/30 almost matching The Greens 80/20 on transferring refugees here for medical treatment. In past elections that's been 70% in favour of more torture further away from ALP voters.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2019/feb/26/scott-morrisons-scare-campaign-on-borders-and-tax-is-less-a-wedge-than-a-wedgie

    850:

    They're not only anti-abortion, they're anti-birth control and anti-sex education. They're ANTI-LIFE.

    The one that gets me about the religious objections is that only about 1/3 of fertilised eggs implant. So if their god hates abortion so much, why so many spontaneous abortions?

    We also have to ask why they're so blase about all the other ways people die. You'd think that "all human life is sacred" would mean everything from unconditionally opposing the death penalty, armed police and war in general, but also strong support for seatbelts and anti-smoking campaigns. And vaccination :)

    851:

    "It's not even behavioural or a punishment-reward system, it's just that some people should suffer (and if someone is suffering it's because they SHOULD be)."

    Oh, it is a punishment thing; you are to be punished for being in a shitty situation, the shittiness deriving from the punishment you receive for being in that situation; you are punished for not being in a situation where you don't get punished; you are punished for not being able to get yourself out of it; you are punished for not being one of the people who does the punishing. And you are especially punished for any involvement with any kind of idea or technique for in any way evading or mitigating the punishment.

    It's circular and it's shitty and it doesn't even make sense, but it is for fuck only knows what reason so virulently infective an idea that the people being punished believe in it just as much as the punishers do. The victims themselves believe it's right for their lives to be shit - being shat on is their place, and it's right and proper, and anyone who's found a way to dodge some of the shit is a rotten cheat: not someone to laud and emulate, but someone to despise, ostracise, dob in, etc... and to treat as more culpable than the people who actually dispense the shit.

    A simple demonstration can be found in much Tory (or similar) propaganda, which works by highlighting the contrast between "you" (the person reading the propaganda) having shit thrown at you, and "your neighbour" who has some metaphorical analogue of an umbrella. This doesn't elicit a response of "Umbrellas for all!" - instead it elicits a response of "Ban umbrellas and beat up anyone who's got one" - because even "the masses" are convinced that people, including themselves, should be shat on and trying to avoid it is against all decency. And it must work, or the Tories (etc) wouldn't keep paying to propagate it.

    852:

    It's circular and it's shitty and it doesn't even make sense, but it is for fuck only knows what reason so virulently infective an idea that the people being punished believe in it just as much as the punishers do.

    It's the just world fallacy, commonly spoken in the USA as "anyone can make it if they try". Damian alluded to it in the post you reference.

    It's real, and a lot of people really do believe it. In many ways the harsh reaction to the idea of privilege is exactly because it contradicts the just world fallacy which is a core belief for many people. After all, it is an attractive idea, "I have what I have because I deserve it" is much easier to accept than "I have what I have because of sheer chance".

    If follows from that that anyone who hasn't made it is a lazy useless scumbag and the best we can hope for is that their bad end serves as an example to others. After seeing that they will choose not to be born poor, non-white, non-male, non-American (or some horrible combination of those).

    Which ties back to the idea that we should aim for a world where it doesn't matter where you're born, you're not disadvantaged. And that goes against the whole notion of inherited privilege that most parents desire for their kids. Like so many things, the desire for radical equality can easily be seen as a criticism of elitists, just by being expressed.

    Those of us who are vegan, cyclists or have made other public ethical choices will be used to the idea that our mere existence is an affront to many people. "you shouldn't help your kids" is another strawman that's easily arrived at when someone mentions equality of opportunity.

    853:

    I vote Democrat and describe myself as a Democrat, but I'm generally not happy with the party. The Democrats are currently improving, which I appreciate, but we'll see how far people like AOC get in the next couple years...

    854:

    I saw this earlier. Note that the 8 degree spike is on top of the 5 degrees that would otherwise be generated by that amount of CO2.

    To the extent that there were arguments that our civilization could successfully adapt to climate change this study would unfortunately sweep them away.

    Most discussion suggests that we won't reach that level until somewhere between 2120 and 2170, though the far end of that seems wildly optimistic.

    I on the other hand am not optimistic that this study will shake humanity out of its myopia and complacency.

    I am the happy and proud father of a new daughter...and am glad she will be able to live a rich and full life before humanity hits this wall.

    855:

    If you are really anti-abortion, I have a modest proposal for you: Menses is astonishingly unpleasant for a whole lot of women, I hope this is not in any way, shape or form a surprise to anyone?

    Hormonal IUDs make menses far more tolerable. They are also the most reliable birth-control short of sterilization. So, as a public health initiative to alleviate the general suffering of our teenage girls, give every one of them an IUD when menses starts. That should, incidentially, also make teenage pregnancy not a thing.

    856:

    Whitroth @ 822 ( Brexit ) Yes, but ... AGAIN Corbyn has shown himself even more stubborn & incompetent than May. Both party leaders are putting party before Country, whilst both parties are very deeply split on brexit. A "JC"-led guvmint inside the EU is survivable, outside the EU, not so much. And an "ERG"-led tory guvmint outside the EU is definitely not survivable.

    Whitroth @ 823 ( US fundies & RvW ) Yes - the religious at the same time want to make "family planning" more difficult, which makes NO SENSE AT ALL if you want to lower abortions ... but then your definition of "moralistic" - i.e. Rabid Puritanism is spot on. Reminds one of the Commonwealth, shudder, or present-day Persia, doesn't it? Wonder how they (in the US) would react if told they are on the exact same wavelength as the mullahs? Because they are. Damian @ 831 .... Yes - make THEM suffer, so WE can feel smug. "Praise-God Barebones" indeed, or even Jean Calvin - what an evil bastard. Troutwaxer @ 847 ... You noticed, too ... that these shits are anti-planning & yes it's old-fashioned resurgence of "It's worked for the past 2500 years" Patriarchy, fighting hard, to try to prevent themseleves going down. Moz @ 850 ... I use this one regularly on the "believers" & boy do they get exited when I tell them that their BigSkyFairy is responsible for the vast majority of abortions! Their usual wriggle is to proclaim that "That's DIFFERENT" - without specifying how, of course, or saying "but it's not deliberate", as if that mattered. Ditto Pigeon @ 851 & Moz again @ 852 - the "Just World fallacy" - yes. See also the aforementioned Jean Calvin ... or a historical example I remember ... the semi-crofters on Arran were desperately poor in the period 1847-90, & they swallowed whole thier calvinist minister's preachings that It was ALL THEIR FAULT for being "sinners". JBS @ 844 ....Oh shit. I read about the US people coming here, but hadn't fully absorbed the fact that they were training our own fuckwits. TJ @ 855 ... oh but we couldn't have that, it might mean that OUR DAUGHTER could be ENJOYING SEX ... which ties back to the stinking bastard puritans, again, doesn't it?

    US politics Whitroth ... "SDS" ?? Explain please?

    Heteromeles @ 837 ARRGH! ... I read that as 80°C When you actually meant 8°C, didn't you? HINT ... remove the spaces & type ... 8 & deg ; C - should work?

    Moz @ 843 Unfortunately, even allowing for the fact that huge chunks of the torah/bible are FICTION, it looks as though some/most of bibi's people are deteremined to replay the faililngs that got the early Iron-Age Isrealites/Judaeans stamped on & carried off. Just been to see the now-closed Brit Mus exhibition on: I am Ashurbanipal, King of the World" Truly scary stuff. P.S. I hadn't realised that cuneiform writing was usually so tiny, the wedge-marks ar about 8 point or maybe smaller ....

    857:

    That's Calvinism, puritanism etc., as satirised by Dow and Gibbons (the Quivering Bretheren):

    https://www.trivia-library.com/b/origins-of-sayings-damned-if-you-do-and-damned-if-you-dont.htm And Cold Comfort Farm, of course

    Roman Catholicism is very different, and is about control. There is orginal sin, a long list of other sins, but the church has a monopoly on absolution. Its position on sex and all that appertains to it is primarily about control, and only secondarily about the actions.

    858:

    Not in our lifetimes, unless there is a revolution. Stand up to the USA? Oh, come off it! Indeed, if the no-deal Brexiteers get their way, the UK will probably sell the islands as part of signing up to TTIP, DMCA and USA biosanitary practices etc.

    859:

    Erm, osyters are icky. They look like lumpy snot, and I've never fancied shoving one in my gob.

    860:

    Yes, but the problem with a Grand Design house is that 12 months later you have a kid - Kevin has knocked your missus up.

    Also, every GD I have ever seen (and I have watched a lot of them) has been complete money pit - I don't think anyone has ever been on budget, or on time. And lots of them seem to start with the premise "start with half a million quid ..."

    I am very lucky in that I was able to buy next-door's half of our semi after she passed away, so I have a big fuck-off 4-6 bed detached, with a smallish garden, a garage at the side, and enough land to maybe build a granny flat for the old buzzards, and it's still worth less than 300k, in a very respectable west yorkshire suburb.

    861:

    Interesting N Carolina court rules several months of state legislature illegal, because of gerrymandering & voter suppression ....

    862:

    There is a BBC series called "100,000 pound house" by people who are very much not Kevin Mcleod that emphasise that you can get cheap if you sweat. There are also a few actual GD episodes with cheap houses but they are less than one per series and a couple are community/communal housing which is one of those "ten families can build ten houses together for less than one bunch of idiots can build a single mansion" things. All you need is ten families who can work together for five-ten years on a project that often breaks up simple pairs who love each other very much... but yeah, can be done, helps if it's approached as a business venture and is brilliant when done by a sympathetic council to provide community housing.

    Even before I was the ex of an architect I was pretty scathing of architects, and given that the breakup was significantly about her inability to actually finish the plans and build the goddamn house, that has only got worse of late. I appreciate that a good architect can work wonders, but I suspect it's like programmers - a good programmer might personally only be 10x as productive as a mediocre one, but some good programmers inspire and educate their teams to greatness as well. Ditto architects. And a mediocre architect can easily be worse than a mediocre draftsperson/"building designer" because the latter almost always have experience in the building industry so their mediocre designs are at least easy and cheap to build. Mediocre architecture is often just as expensive as the good stuff, and often does one thing well (looking like it might have been considered for an architecture award, as a rule), but at the expense of literally everything else. Expense being the key word here.

    In classic/typical engineer fashion, I think I can do better than most architects. But I'm self-aware enough to know that that's because I care about a completely different 20% of the design. Most architects like pretty houses, I will happily live in an ugly machine for living. But by god, that machine for living will be comfortable and energy efficient in a way that most architects don't even have the ability to realise is possible, let alone the ambition to attempt.

    863:

    Ex-my truck does have a bonus extra switch from when the battery was dying so I tried to remove parasitic loads... there's a kill switch for the immobiliser itself. Or more accurately, for the 24V to 12V converter that powers it. And for the other 24V to 12V converter I found while doing that, that powers the radio and cigarette lighter. Between those two and the 24V cameras I was losing over 100mA when the truck was "off". Car batteries hate that sort of thing.

    Good luck finding the bonus kill switch under the truck up between the chassis rails. It's both out of the splash and waterproof and in a waterproof box. If it's off the radio and cameras won't work, as well as the truck not starting :)

    864:

    See also : Jesus clip - spring clip or circlip that as you remove it flies across room, leading to cries of "Oh, Jesus, where did the f**ker go?"

    865:

    N Carolina court rules several months of state legislature illegal, because of gerrymandering & voter suppression ....

    Uh, sort of.

    It was a single judge. And the basis of the ruling surprised most everyone. Because if allowed to stand then EVERY SINGLE ACT of the legislature over the last 2 years is likely invalid. There were 2 other amendments that got adopted out of that legislature. Plus a slew of other legislation. Some controversial (as always) and some very mundane.

    In general, courts in the US try and make rulings that don't blow up existing things. Like teacher raises, signed contracts for roads, etc... that are not controversial. Commentators on all sides expect THIS ruling to get tossed on appeal.

    866:

    Because if allowed to stand then EVERY SINGLE ACT of the legislature over the last 2 years is likely invalid.

    For example. The 9th NC Congressional district election that was thrown out and now we get a do over. Since the election board that decided this was formed based on legislation by the "invalid" legislature do they have to re-constitute the old board and do the hearing again?

    867:

    I'll raise you the hair springs used in Sturmey-Archer and similar hub gears :-) In addition to having that property, their name indicates their appearance - and they are matt brown, to boot - experienced cycle maintainers make sure they have spares BEFORE taking those gears apart!

    868:

    It's worse in the UK. With no efffective penalty for abuse, it's a winning strategy, and becomes SOP. Occasionally, an individual gets penalised, but no mainstream (especially now in government) party gets more than a nominal fine, and a judgement tantamount to "Well, BE like that, then". What is needed is the powers to force a reelection, with the offending party banned from fielding or supporting candidates. In extreme cases, it should be for some years. For all I know, that's technically possible, but our courts and judges have been largely politicised over the past 3/4 century or so.

    869:

    I should note that the timeline for hitting 1200 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere is based on humans directly emitting the gas.

    The thing to be concerned about is the ~1400 gigatons of CO2 and equivalents (e.g. methane) sitting in the Arctic permafrost. If that stuff rapidly mobilizes, we could easily blow to 1200 ppm equivalent (remember, methane is a more potent greenhouse gas) before 2100.

    Anyway, congratulations on having a new daughter. Have fun teaching her how to live in the 21st Century.

    870:

    That Ashurbanipal exhibition was fascinating. The cuneiform started small and then got ridiculous. I loved a behind the scenes picture as you leave of a seriously unimpressed researcher trying to decipher some, definitely a young person's game. Also really not sure how you could tell the difference between the clay tablet letter and the clay envelope it was wrapped in.

    It also showcased just how interconnected and messed up that region of the world was even at that time, with the Assyrians building up an empire over several centuries and then imploding and vanishing in just 30 years.

    871:

    The left wants to increase the provision women's health care clinics, screening for STDs, make contraception normal and readily attainable, and provide safe abortions.

    And this is why I'm a yellow-dog democrat. They're far more likely to be right on any given issue. Until the corruption starts to play in at the higher levels... which is why I'm not happy with the Democrats at all. Just far less unhappy than I am with the Republicans!

    I've noted this before, but I'll note it again. In the 1980s, Reagan and Bush put 1100 officers from Savings and Loans in jail. This was during a much less corrupt and divisive time than the present.

    How many bankers did Obama put in jail (during a much worse crisis?)

    This is what the Democratic party looks like as it becomes increasingly corrupt, approaching levels of corruption Reagan never dreamed of! The only thing that makes the Democrats remotely tolerable at this point is that the Republicans have been getting worse in similar ways, and at a much faster pace!

    I'll happily admit that the Democrats are much better where social and environmental policies are concerned, and when push comes to shove, much less likely to let the world go down the toilet where Global Warming is concerned. But "unwilling to allow the apocalypse" is my minimum standard for a political party, and most Democrats are barely above that line. The most I'd concede is that current political trends within the Democratic Party look promising, but we'll have to see what happens in 2020 before I'm likely to be happy with the party!

    872:

    Sometimes a woman has no choice. If she tries to carry a fetus to term she's going to die.

    I am aware of this, which is why (ahem! like I wrote above) I vote my rationality, not my emotions. Other cases where abortion is unarguably necessary are rape, incest, etc., plus the fact that if you put these issues in the hands of someone other than the woman concerned, it's possible to make horrible mistakes.

    All this should be completely obvious, and the sane version of the argument would be at what point we cap late-term abortions when the mother's life it not at stake... but grifters gotta grift!

    873:

    I agree completely with the sentiment, but only with the sentiment, as I would not want to give a young woman who has just started puberty any kind of additional hormones - there's too much development still to come - but a non-hormonal IUD might be a good idea, followed (if desired) by a hormonal IUD after full development is achieved.

    874:

    Thanks. The first agent I tried was Joshua Bilmas, a very well known agent, and if I have to get a rejection, his is the one I want: he said, in a personal email, that "this reader couldn't connect with this character". No form sorry, no cmts on writing, or plotting, or....

    And the novelette, I just submitted to Analog last night. That makes...um, is it five stories out? I'm losing track....

    875:

    When writing my novel the ultimate idea is to have two books; one of them showing the "optimistic" view of climate change, in which we get everything right going forward, the other showing the "pessimistic" view, in which we don't get things right...

    The historical timeline for the "optimistic" view has the Republican Convention catching fire and burning all the high-level party members to death, just so we can get on the right track permanently.

    876:

    Jane Jacobs. YES!

    1986, "Urban Studies" class. Instructor, "there are two theories of cities..." Me: "Jane Jacobs says, in the Death and Life of Great American Cities..." Instructor: "Actually, there are three theories. The formal cities studies people look down on Jane Jacobs, because she doesn't have a degree. On the other hand, she's so obviously right."

    I own a copy of Death and Life.

    ObDisclosure: yeah, a fond spot in my heart, being that she spends a good bit of words on city parks that work, and uses Rittenhouse Sq, in Philly, as an example of one. Yeah, it's also where us hippies used to hang out in the sixties....

    877:

    About your daughter: mazel, as they say, tov.

    I've apologized to my kids, and my two Duly Appointed Neices (I appointed them, so they're duly...), saying that this is NOT the 21st century I intended or expected to leave them.

    Make SURE she knows, in spite of whatever anyone else tells her, that she can do whatever the fuck she wants, and be whatever she wants to be, none of this "girls don't" bullshit.

    878:

    Back in the mid-nineties, my late wife and I agreed that it ought to become a regular, popular tradition that for a girl's/young woman's 16 birthday, they go to a doc and get a 5-yr implant, or whatever.

    879:

    SDS: Students for a Democratic Society. Look 'em up. See the GOP running around with their hair on fire....

    880:

    Architects. Why did it have to be architects?

    There oughta be a law, requiring any architect, when starting out, to spend 10 years living or working or parking in places that they designed.... Oh, and paying for repairs.

    Obverse, and this is from The Whole Earth Catalog: in the mid-sixties, Mexico built a new university in Mexico City. They landscaped it, but did not pave it. The next summer, after a year of use, they paved all the dirt paths. "OHH!!! But it's not Architected! It's not Artistic!" "Yeah, well, this is what people actually wanted."

    881:

    Hey, one of my nieces is an architect. She's harmless — spends her time designing buildings for contests that will never get built (but hopefully some of the ideas will get used).

    A few years ago I went to a conference at the Perimeter Institute in Waterloo. Amazing place (both people and architecture). I love the little details, like meeting nooks absolutely everywhere, micro-etched windows that became whiteboards when you got close, whiteboards everywhere (because the residents write on any flat surface when they get going, and whiteboard are better than repainting the walls…

    Hoever, I also chatted with one of the maintenance chaps, who told me about how much work that fancy architecture takes to keep functional. Different coefficients of expansion (in Canadian weather), joints where water pools, etc. Pity, as you could have had all the cool features and a much more maintainable building with more care taken during the design.

    Perimeter website: https://www.perimeterinstitute.ca

    VR tour of some of the architecture: https://roundme.com/tour/202433/

    882:

    Unless you want to do human extinction, feel free to use Hot Earth Dreams to do the pessimistic one. It was literally written as a sourcebook for such stories.

    As for your optimistic view...I wish it were so simple, but if you want to do hard SF, I'd advise reading Graff's Raven Rock about the US Continuity of Government plans. Crashing a plane into the Republican Convention, especially if it takes out a good chunk of the House of Representatives and the President and VP, could trigger a dictatorship, with a civil war between whoever Trump appointed as his "C Team" backup and Nancy Pelosi. The reason is the Continuity of Government plan cooked up by FEMA, which anticipates that a decapitation strike will destroy the Legislative and Judicial branches, that only the Executive will be left to eventually reconstitute the other two branches, and that, because of the way Presidents and VPs normally act, they're likely to be taken out by the strike, as will their immediate successors (Trump may depart from the basic go-down-fighting heroism that most of our presidents have shown.). As a result, there are secret C and D Team Executive branches already designated (unless Trump failed to do this) and theoretically they will identify themselves and claim the presidency if there's a decapitation strike. Since there's apparently no well-known law legitimizing the C and/or D President, presumably the next step is that factions would form and fight it out, with the winner of this second civil war claiming the what's left of the Presidency. These C/D officers are current and former governors, mayors, and similar functionaries, from what's leaked.

    If you want benign optimism, I'd suggest simply writing SF in which the Green New Deal actually becomes law, and liberally pirate from what happened in the early 1930s as the Republicans fought with the New Deal Democrats. Heck, you can even write this from the perspective of the 2050s or 2060s, when (as in the 1950s/60s) the coalition that had powered the New Deal fell apart over racial issues (what would the GND coalition look like, and what would fracture them?). Since the New Deal had a lot of public construction, including our crazy dam building glut, you can have even more fun talking about an overbuilding of green infrastructure, with solar farms in coastal Oregon and tree farms in Nebraska, and talk a lot about what GND publicly built structures might look like.

    883:

    Actually thinking about it, a decapitation strike on Washington might be a good part of a pessimistic climate change story, because it points to a major problem enviros have and don't recognize: yes, the current government system is inadequate to deal with climate change, but the lack of any system would be much, much worse.

    You could, for example, talk about WWI (Web War One) in which satellite strikes and cyberwarfare cripple cities, destroy the internet backbone, and cause a Kessler effect that makes weather satellites irreplaceable, so that over a decade, we lose the ability to monitor global weather. Then Washington DC is hit by a Cat. 5 hurricane with no warning some fine November day, and the storm takes out the heads of the three branches of government. FEMA triggers its Continuity of Government plan, declaring martial law with only an executive branch in charge, rival claimants for the Presidency emerge, people question their legitimacy, and chaos ensues.

    884:

    The way the book is currently written the Republicans have become more and more insular and racist, so in 2036 they take up a resolution demanding a new Constitutional Convention and the repeal of the 13th, 14th and 15th amendments... at which point someone blows them up. However, the Vice President and President are spared for (reasons.) Two weeks later the insurance companies announce that they are pulling coverage from any property less than five feet above sea level.

    Fortunately, the president is paying attention, and realizes that the insane focus on race is keeping us from addressing our real problems, and he stomps rather hard on anyone who wants to keep racial issues front-and-center.

    This was all written before the Green New Deal came up, so at this point I'm probably going to leave the near-future alone, or at least play it down in the revisions...

    885:

    Well, the Green New Deal is written (text here), it's short, vague, and it requires a certain handwaving to make the finances work, meaning that whatever finally gets passed won't look exactly like this. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I think it's flexible enough to fold into a SF near-future background with minimal rewriting, since it could be implemented in any one of a number of different ways, all of which are under writerly control.

    And if the GND passes, you're writing SF, while if it doesn't, you're writing alt-futurism. Either one works.

    886:

    Heteromeles @ 882 what happened in the early 1930s as the Republicans fought with the New Deal Democrats. Including an attempted internal coup as (IIRC) actually happened - I forget the details, but didn't some senior soldier - who had ALREADY DONE THIS for/to "other" countries, renege on doing it to his own & tipped the Feds off/

    887:

    Smedley Butler was the soldier's name. He wrote a famous essay called "War is a Racket."

    888:

    "the semi-crofters on Arran were desperately poor in the period 1847-90, & they swallowed whole thier calvinist minister's preachings that It was ALL THEIR FAULT for being "sinners"."

    See also St Kilda... over the centuries the islanders had evolved a lifestyle that allowed them to survive as an independent community under the particular conditions of that island, then along came this minister who told them they were doing it all wrong and weren't allowed to do things like that, and within a century the place became unsustainable and the islanders had to be evacuated to the mainland. (I think they had a couple of disease outbreaks caused by visitors from the mainland as well, but they'd have survived if that was all they'd had to cope with.)

    889:

    ""I have what I have because I deserve it" is much easier to accept than "I have what I have because of sheer chance"."

    Well, that's another odd one. To me it seems that whichever of those two is easier to accept depends on how much ego you have, and on whether "what I have" means "I deserve this" is patting that ego on the back or beating it up. What I don't get is how so very many people have enough ego to believe it yet seem to like beating themselves up.

    I guess it must be like the "meaning of life" thing - so many people seem to find it so important, whereas to me even the concept of life having a meaning doesn't make sense and is an extremely silly idea (since "meaning" (a) is a human construct and not something inherent, and (b) can't apply to chance events anyway). Fine if you're religious, but so many people are not and yet still believe in it anyway...

    890:

    Excerpt: Ivanka Trump says she opposes the Alexandria Ocasio Cortez-spearheaded Green New Deal because she feels, deep down, that people prefer to earn money rather than having it given to them. At a certain point, one has to wonder if she’s doing this on purpose, or if she’s really so far up her own ass that she’s tasting her Skinny Vanilla Lattes twice.

    The First Daughter’s comments came during an interview with Fox News’ Steve Hilton, which will air in its entirety on Sunday. Trump believes that the Green New Deal will fail because people don’t want a higher minimum wage or a jobs guarantee. “I don’t think Americans, in their heart, want to be given something,” she whisper-sang at Hilton.
    --- end excerpt ---

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/wait-a-secondivanka-fing-trump-says-americans-prefer-to-own-their-own-money?ref=home

    891:

    I considered that unfortunate possibility briefly last night...but in the cold clear light of day it makes it moderately to significantly worse (depending on how much is methane and the degree to which methane release becomes a rapid and self-reinforcing process).

    The last time I looked at that fine question was a few years ago, at which point I concluded that the methane release scenario was unrealistically pessimistic. But Arctic thawing has been running significantly ahead of IPCC projections and ocean warming has been as well and those are key to the question. So, you are right, we could hit the wall faster.

    Sadly, at this point, prayer seems to be my best (though fortunately not only) option...which given my views of the existence of the Deity is not such a great shot.

    Thanks for the congratulations though.

    892:

    Thanks.

    She most certainly will know that she can do absolutely anything!

    893:

    "Menses is astonishingly unpleasant for a whole lot of women, I hope this is not in any way, shape or form a surprise to anyone?"

    No, what surprises me is that treatments to clobber the whole thing permanently aren't more popular. I'm bloody sure that if I had to suffer what amounts to a recurrent illness that pops up every month I'd jump at the chance of making sure it never happened again. But it seems that remarkably few women do, on the contrary there is even a strain of feminist thought that fetishises the whole process and exhibits a strong denial response to discussion of its unpleasantness. Which seems completely daft to me - it looks like yet another example of beating yourself up because you're convinced it's right and proper that shit things should happen to you.

    Your proposal also has the problem of having been made before but for rather different reasons - the first time I encountered it the motive was to ensure men had an unlimited supply of consequence-free shags. It's very open to the criticism that it's simply another means of perpetuating the subjugation of women, and in any real-world attempt to implement it that criticism would inevitably have some validity; you can't guarantee that only people with pure motives would get involved. I think that at the minimum it should be just one half of a scheme, the other half of which is that as soon as anyone with testes begins to produce viable sperm, a couple of samples are deep-frozen and their vasa deferentia are then excised. (Not that that would eliminate all problems, nor would it not introduce others of its own.)

    894:

    It is unequivocally true that the Republicans have been an utter disaster on this issue.

    It is also true, as Kevin Drum notes, Here's My Super Abridged Green New Deal Europe hasn't done any better than the US at reducing emissions per capita. And if you check the data, you will find that even a country as committed to carbon reduction as Germany has only dropped emissions 7% in the last decade. Germany's GHG and Climate Targets .

    In other words, even if you made the average Republican as good on the issue as the average liberal Democrat you wouldn't have made a serious dent in the problem.

    Bluntly, no one is willing to make the sacrifices we would need to make to get where we need to go with current technology. And, the willingness to fund research and subsidize technology and investment the way we would need to in order to fix the problem without those sacrifices (i) really needed to be there 10-20 years ago and (ii) really isn't there even now.

    895:

    On a similar note... if you've taken a D-Jetronic injection pump apart to clean it of tarry gunge left behind by evaporating petrol that is preventing it from rotating... do not power it up to see if it runs before completely reassembling it.

    The pumping element is five tiny rollers about the size of a BC108 (without the leads) which are whizzed around by a central spider fast enough to seal against the outer housing by centrifugal force. This is also fast enough to disappear instantly leaving no trace apart from five pings emanating from points on the periphery of the workshop 72 degrees apart. The one saving grace is that the pings are sharp enough transients that if you're very lucky it is just barely possible to pinpoint all five of them more or less simultaneously so you know where to start looking.

    Re hidden fuel pump switches... these work even better with carburettors. The engine starts and runs apparently normally, then conks out 200 yards down the road when the float bowls run out, leaving the thieves stranded and puzzled in an awkward location which with any luck will draw the attention of any passing police.

    896:

    ...so in 2036 they take up a resolution demanding a new Constitutional Convention and the repeal of the 13th, 14th and 15th amendments...

    Perhaps not that soon, but not too many years after that, I can easily see a Convention for the purpose of splitting the US in at least three. I can even suggest where the dividing lines for a partition will fall, and reasons.

    897:

    Well, if you want to play.

    Look up what India & Pakistan have been up to in the last 48 hrs. Then check the Time Stamps. And the Word Choice. Language, such a bitch. Cows... a bit Holy-Moly there, amirite?

    innocent whistle

    It's not like we're not giving the Game away or anything. Oh, and no surprises, it's over Water. But India & Pakistan love a bit of the old rough love stuff, so it'll probably blow over by the weekend.

    But, then again, check on Ivanka's statements on inherited wealth or a load of other issues.

    nose wiggle

    What's really going to blow your Mind? We've fuzzed it a bit, but up there is a genuine 2,000 year old conspiracy theory. Essenes, mad bunch of fuckers, knew how to party though. Now find yourself a (living) Jewish person who knows that. Not in the Talmud, either [oooooh, feisty].

    We're not a snake, but we have fucked them (or, rather, not been too bothered by flesh-2-flesh contact). And, since projection is always implicit, we've fucked a few cats as well. [Note: this joke doesn't work in your language]. How's AF Neil doing 2nite?

    [Note: that's a 2k+ yr old Authenticity Stamp if you've not noticed. Big. Fucking. Teeth.]

    p.s.

    We weren't joking about the Daughter bit either. Sadly. She didn't deserve the Hate.

    898:

    If we nationalize healthcare, the president and whoever supports them get to own the loss of employment in the insurance sector

    Nah. The counterarguments will be about money (and class warfare), not employment. And if legal changes do get made, the consequences will be years down the road, by which time the prez will have left office anyway. So, he/she won't face employment issues, someone else will.

    899:

    what surprises me is that treatments to clobber the whole thing permanently aren't more popular

    There has been discussion around the traps recently (again!) that the gap/sugar pills in the contraceptive pill is not necessary and was put there primarily for biblical reasons "thou shalt suffer monthly" rather than anything even vaguely scientific or even rational. The "is this safe" experiments have been done by millions of women saying "this is bullshit"...

    In the UK they've rescinded the guideline: https://slate.com/technology/2019/01/women-pill-dont-need-period.html

    https://www.sciencealert.com/the-sugar-pills-in-your-birth-control-pack-are-only-there-to-placate-the-pope

    900:

    The side effects of inducing menopause with drugs can be problematic too, starting with bone density loss and ending with rare uterine cancer. Additionally, birth control pills in various doses and formulations can be used to deal with some of the more problematic symptoms.

    As I said, I know some people in the medical field.

    902:

    Miceal Caine @ 816 And NOT the, um, err...18th Amendment (?) - the one that gave votes to Women?

    Pretentious @ 897 Pakistan has been trying it on since Partition. They invaded Kashmir to "protect" it, which is why one of my neighbours is living next-door, because his grandparents fled from the "liberating Pakistani" rapists & murderers troops. Kashmir should either be independant or part of India, assuming that partiton actually happened. The real worry is, both places have nukes & both places have religious nutters. India would be hurt very very badly, but Pakistan would be wiped off the map .....

    Moz @ 899 ( & others previously on this subject ) ....there's also the anti-menses & contraceptive drug called "Depo-Provera" that works a treat. And, guess what, loads of gullible people, including lots of women, immediately started campaigning against it, becuse it STOPPED PERIODS - & - a completely fake campaign, that I ran up against that claimed it was "Western Imperialism" because it was being used in the Indian subcontinent & elsewhere. "Paid agents of the Pope" as deceased very good friend used to say. I once got harangued by a group of females who had swallowed this lie ... until I told them that someone I knew VERY WELL (hint) was using the stuff, in London, right now & what was your problem? It went quiet very fast, I can tell you.

    903:

    Damian @ 685: According to the wiki page Charlie linked above about the B330, “Bigelow also claims that the module provides radiation protection equivalent to, and ballistic protection superior to, the International Space Station.”

    Right, ie, non-serious radiation protection. A long, slow trip to Mars could be done with that level of protection, but my understanding is that there's a chance of picking up a health-impairing radiation dose, depending on the solar flares that might happen.

    A vehicle enclosed in a meter-thick layer of water would be fairly heavy, which cuts into the load capacity of any non-huge vehicle. One solution is to set up a "cycler", something that visits both Earth orbit and Mars orbit. You put it in place once, and passengers get on/off via relatively short-range shuttling. It could be manufactured, or it could be a pet asteroid that we move into place, and tunnel into.

    I'd rather see a manufactured cycler, because we could start small, and incrementally make it larger. For example, imagine a piecewise-flat sort-of-sphere, like 20-face dice. More flat pieces could be added whenever there was money/demand for the upgrade.

    A cycler has bad latency - it isn't the fastest trip. But if it does get enlarged, this design has the nice advantage that the enclosed volume goes up faster than the surface area does. So the cargo shippable per year could go up incrementally, with increasing energy efficiency, and the original unit's cost amortized.

    904:

    Yup. The woman needs to be primaried by a Left Coast version of AOC.

    905:

    The whole methane question (well, and real life) is one of the things I haven't tackled yet for the revision of Hot Earth Dreams.

    The problem is whether there's a tipping point or tipping points on Arctic methane emissions where a good chunk of it is coming out of the ground no matter what we do, or whether it scales reasonably smoothly with increasing (or hopefully decreasing) temperatures (and yes, I'm aware both that there's a big-ass lag in soil temperatures, and that ice formation can seal in thawed biological soils that continue outgassing. Effing complicated system).

    If there's not a tipping point at which a lot of methane's going to come out (as with the stratocumulus dissolution), then we've got this weird equation that the amount of methane in the atmosphere equals the amount outgassed minus the amount lost to soil methanotrophs and oceanic methanotrophs (the latter seem to be pretty good at sopping up releases in the Arctic ocean at the moment, but either way, methane goes in and CO2 comes out), minus breakdown of methane in the air (due to hydroxyl ions, which can conceivably be saturated if too much methane shows up, prolonging its active life). How many unknowns have we got in there? A lot.

    However, if we get our emissions under control, which admittedly is a currently impossible ask, but it's a bit less impossible than it was 5 years ago, then we have to worry about whether there's a methane tipping point and whether we go over it. If we go over it, it could cause Earth to hit 1200 ppm CO2-equivalent regardless and get jacked into the PETM by stratocumulus loss for 100,000-400,000 years. If not, then we get a few centuries of really wild weather, followed by an ice age a few millennia from now.

    That's life on Earth. It's hard to remember that right now we've got it really, really good, compared with most of human history.

    907:

    John Barnes' novels Directive 51 and Daybreak Zero include a presidential succession crisis amongst other things. Interesting but I found it too depressing to finish :-(

    908:

    “I have what I have because I deserve it" is much easier to accept than "I have what I have because of sheer chance".

    The problem is for the self made men types is there are elements of both. It’s kinda like being an Olympian. You don’t win the gold metal by not working your ass off, being extremely talented and , focused etc etc etc

    But you don’t even get the chance to be an Olympian without being ridiculously lucky both in the abilities you are born with and the opportunities you are given

    It’s so easy and ego gratifying to just forget about the second part and think it’s all due to hard work focus etc, especially if you are sheltered and blind to the opportunities you had that others didnt

    909:

    The problem is for the self made men types...

    IME those are rarely bothered overmuch, you're far more likely to get vicious pushback from the Trump types. Ivanka recently said that she's sure people would rather earn what they have than be given it, for example. Pointing out to her that she has earned very little, and that through opportunities bought for her by her father, would likely not be well received.

    On the flip side, many of the real winners are not just grateful for the advantages they were born with, they're effusively and publicly so. John Scalzi springs to mind in the SF community, but the number of Olympic medalists who spend the rest of their lives doing "good works" is also high.

    910:

    Dynamite Cohen's statement to Congress - NYT article ( may need incognito window ). The one that interests me is this one: He was a presidential candidate who knew that Roger Stone was talking with Julian Assange about a WikiLeaks drop of Democratic National Committee emails. How long before that little shit Assange goes to a real jail, rather than the self-imposed one, I wonder? [ Yes - I've got it in for him, because he was principally responsible for getting climate change deliberately mis-labelled a "hoax". ]

    911:

    Seriously? Are you allowing for the fact that the Obama administration post-dates the repeal of Glass-Steagall?

    Also @Moz at #909 Para 1, I was thinking the same thing about Ms Trump.

    912:

    I’m not so sure that this is as consistent as all that, but there are different effects with a range of nuances between them. The notion of someone being self-made usually omits a huge amount of help that the person in question simply doesn’t understand they received, so there’s really a spectrum between the sort you describe and the Trumplets. Then there is the separate question that material success and reward do not necessarily result from activities we would all agree are admirable. We tend to roll a lot up under what is otherwise a pretty odd portmanteau concept of “hard work” without really unpacking what that means in terms of behaviours, in a range of contexts (the trumpish apparently see themselves as hard workers).

    But sure, lots who do achieve nearly impossible things from a position of relatively less advantage do seem to appreciate their good fortune. The world is full of counter examples so it isn’t a universal rule, but it’s certainly a thing.

    913:

    How long before that little shit Assange goes to a real jail, rather than the self-imposed one, I wonder? [ Yes - I've got it in for him, because he was principally responsible for getting climate change deliberately mis-labelled a "hoax". ]

    Heh, you're new, I've hated the egotistic, mouthy little bastard since before he got himself busted for wandering in and out of computer systems.

    Little shit just had to talk about how good he was. (Turned out he wasn't that good, he got caught... ;-) )

    I wonder how he fits his ego into those rooms in the embassy???

    914:

    And the bill to end Glass-Steagall was signed by a REALLY EVIL Republican.

    Oh wait. I'm wrong. It was signed by Bill Clinton, one of the main reasons I've become cynical about the damn triangulating Democrats!

    And yes, even without Glass-Steagall there was lots of criminal conduct to prosecute.

    915:

    OK you got me; I don't know an ass from an elephant! :-)

    916:

    No prob. It's hard to tell the difference sometimes.

    917:

    Clinton did the "triangulation" thing of stealing issues from the Republicans to disempower them. IIRC, Bill Clinton later said that repealing Glass-Steagall was a mistake, just as Hillary Clinton later said that voting for the Iraq War was a mistake.

    Now everybody makes mistakes, but those are fairly huge ones that really could have been avoided with a bit of thought.

    Anyway, we've got a war on between the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party, and the Clintonian wing of the Democratic Party, so place your bets on who's going to win (it's not obvious).

    918:

    Getting back to the Green New Deal, I'll spin a blue sky (with clouds) prediction for how it might get through.

    This notion was founded on an early poll that showed that there was bipartisan support for the GND across the political spectrum, with a majority of everybody polled aside from the extreme far right, and even there a fair number of people thought it was a good idea.

    So here's my prediction: the GND gets passed on an "anti-billionaire" coalition. "Anti-Billionaireism" is also a bipartisan issue, and I suspect it will get more popular as people realize that rather more of the super-rich are like Trump and very few are like Bill Gates or even Elon Musk. This coalition coalesces around a widely shared desire to get the corruption and the money out of politics. Combine that with an urgent desire by younger voters (e.g. kids, teens and up to those with kids younger than 20) to do something about climate before the window closes in 10 years, and I suspect you could see a popular wave that carries the GND into practice.

    This coalition carries the seeds of its own demise, though, because it unites big government groups with small government groups. I can see small-government types going for single-payer health care if it turns out to be cheaper and simpler than the mess we have now (get the billionaire insurance dons out of the picture, and problems may become tractable). The problem with the big government types, as we always see in California, is that they love to proliferate badly written laws about everything, and that pisses people off. Heck, I just commented on one such badly-written proposal yesterday, and I'm pissed off, even though I tend to break far left.

    On the other side are the small government leave-me-alone types. They'll put up with the GND and universal health care for the same reason republicans got along with dams and aqueducts in California: they work even if they're ideologically suspect, and we've tried everything else first (that's the story with California's waterworks, incidentally).

    The problem is, assuming the GND even works (which requires both a fair sprinkling of fairy dust and a bunch of bare knuckle political wins, an odd combination), after a few decades, that anti-billionaire coalition is going to be really hard to hold together. It takes just one too many legislative overreaches for the coalition to crack, and then the moneymen ooze back into the limelight. They won't have left politics, but they will have laid low for awhile.

    Anyway, that's my tuppence thought for the morning. Feel free to steal it if you're righting near-term SF.

    919:

    Nope, never did anything quite that dangerous.

    However... in '90, I was out of work for about 9 mos. My lovely 24=pin Epson dot-matrix broke some pins, so my resumes and cover letters didn't look good.

    I took apart the 24-pin printhead, moved some of the good pins, removed the broken, and reassembled it. The results were much better... and when I got a job, I had it redone professionally.

    But, geez... and my close vision was better then.

    That reminds me of the kit HO steam loco I built about '07 or so. The "marker jewels" are colored pieces of glass, literally about the size of a 10.5 or 12 point period. Not sure how many times I got up, moved my desk chair, picked up the carpet runner, shook it down (CAREFULLY) and went through the dust to find the one that had fallen this time as I tried to crazy glue it in place....

    920:

    Things I've read on slow interplanetary voyages have a radiation shelter in the center of the vehicle, with all the shielding and water around it, rather than around the whole ship. Think of living in a bomb shelter for days....

    921:

    Re: emissions

    Question for you: What's the relationship between/among H2O, CO2 and CH4 vis-a-vis climate change? Do any become more reactive (likelier to bond with other molecules) as temps increase? If it would take too long to explain, a link to a reliable for-the-layperson article would be appreciated. Thanks!

    BTW - I'm also interested in how trees/vegetation figure into the above relationship.

    922:

    Clinton could have vetoed the Glass-Steagall regulation repeal bill but it came out of Congress with a substantial bipartisan majority:

    "agreed to by the Senate on November 4, 1999 (90-8) and by the House on November 4, 1999 (362-57)"

    from Wikipedia, referring to the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act which repealed Glass-Steagal

    and it was entirely possible it would have ended up on his desk again but this time with a veto-proof majority. Not a hill he chose to die on -- most Presidents when faced with that sort of unanimity by the Legislature who write and change the laws of the US sign on the dotted line. It's a convenient stick to beat Slick Willy with but the stick should be applied to the Congress, both parties rather than the Executive since Bill didn't have that much to do with it.

    This was really a case of Both-Sideserism but it is worth noting all three of the bill's sponsors were Republicans.

    923:

    Pointing out to her that she has earned very little, and that through opportunities bought for her by her father, would likely not be well received.

    Apparently Twitter is dumping on her, although I suspect that will just buttress her sense of self-righteous victimhood.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/ivanka-trump-gets-crushed-idiotic-attack-aoc-hilariously-backfires-way-league/

    924:

    I am sure she finds the peasants, revolting.

    925:

    That's probably where you'd want the ship's computers also. Would be nice if some clever person works out a rad shielding method that didn't involve a few metric tons of water.

    926:

    WaveyDavey @ 859: Erm, osyters are icky. They look like lumpy snot, and I've never fancied shoving one in my gob.

    OTOH, oysters do a damn good job of cleansing polluted water. That's a good reason to keep them around even if you're not going to eat them.

    927:

    On a journey to Mars you're going to need a lot of water anyway. A lot of it will be recycled but recycling is never going to be 100% effective, but the holding tanks for the recyclers make just as good a shield as the tanks of fresh water. There's also going to be a lot of other damp to wet waste that you don't want to dump overboard that will need to be stored somewhere until it's added to the greenhouse after landing.

    928:

    Greg Tingey @ 861: Interesting N Carolina court rules several months of state legislature illegal, because of gerrymandering & voter suppression ....

    That's a ruling by a state court judge. I doubt it will stand up on appeal in the state appeals courts and even if it does, it's going to get shot down when the appeal reaches the federal courts. It's one thing for a court to block a law passed by the Legislature, but this is an amendment to the state Constitution - voted on and approved by 55% of the voters during the general election in 2018. How can an amendment to the State Constitution be unconstitutional?

    It won't hurt my feelings if I turn out to be wrong about this, but I don't think I am.

    929:

    Heteromeles @ 917: IIRC, Bill Clinton later said that repealing Glass-Steagall was a mistake, just as Hillary Clinton later said that voting for the Iraq War was a mistake.

    Now everybody makes mistakes, but those are fairly huge ones that really could have been avoided with a bit of thought.

    If memory serves, Clinton opposed the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act (AKA the Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999) when it was passed because of the Glass-Steagall repeal provisions, but signed it because he couldn't muster the votes he needed to sustain a veto.

    930:

    It's also a good reason not to eat the little packages of concentrated pollution...

    931:

    Things ain't looking so good between India & Pakistan right now.

    932:

    Back in the mid-seventies, a buddy of mine had gotten into the Merchant Marine school. He got back from his first trip, and was raving about oysters. We went to a seafood house (this is in Philly), but they only had clams. shrug I ate some. They're ok, I guess, but I'd rather leave 'em to someone who enjoys them.

    933:

    Question for you: What's the relationship between/among H2O, CO2 and CH4 vis-a-vis climate change? Do any become more reactive (likelier to bond with other molecules) as temps increase? If it would take too long to explain, a link to a reliable for-the-layperson article would be appreciated. Thanks!

    This is one of those ones where I'd look up one of the free online introductory climate change textbooks and settle down for a long read.

    Basically, yes, chemicals in general become more reactive the hotter they get. The problem is determining what "temperature" means in a three dimensional system where the sky gets colder, the further away from the surface it gets, but UV radiation increases with elevation, so the molecules get broken down in a different energy environment. I guess the upshot is that while I'm suspect climatologists include loops to change reactions based on temperature where it matters, it's not part of the normal discussion.

    As for water vapor, methane, and carbon dioxide...

    Water vapor is one of the most important greenhouse gases, but it's also one of the most complex, as we saw a couple of days ago when that paper on stratocumulus clouds going away popped up. Water vapor acts as a greenhouse gas. Liquid water in the ocean, because it is dark, is really good at absorbing light (low albedo), really good at holding it, and will even expand when either heated above around 2°C or cooled below that point (I may have the number wrong, but anyway, ice floats and hot water expands). Frozen water tends to be white and highly reflective, so ice in clouds or ice on the ground reflects light, lowering the amount of energy (and heat) entering the system. Supercooled water droplets (in some clouds) also do their own thing. The problem is, if you get rid of shiny ice and replace it with dark ocean, you drastically change the light absorbing properties of the system, but we're still just talking about water. Some parts of it are a royal pain to simulate. For example, with the stratocumulus paper, they used computer power that's about on the same order as what they use for a GCM climate model (globe-wide) to simulate the clouds in a 5 mile x 5 mile square. We're not going to see simulations of global cloud formation in GCMs until the 2030s, assuming Moore's and Koomey's Laws continue to hold.

    Methane is a very potent greenhouse gas, but it's unstable. The Wikipedia article on atmospheric methane is worth reading in this regard. In our atmosphere, apparently the main way it breaks down is through interaction with OH- ions caused by water getting split by UV light or similar. If there's not a lot of methane around, it lasts around 9 years, but is about 100 times more potent a GHG than CO2 is. If a lot of methane gets blown into the air, it saturates the OH- and hangs around longer. However, it gets taken out over time. Assuming some methane lasts for 100 years after emission, over that 100 years, the methane averages out as 28 times as potent a greenhouse gas as CO2. The big problem here there's a lot of stuff that is methane or will break down to produce methane sitting frozen in the Arctic permafrost and possibly off the coast in undersea methane clathrates. If these warm up and outgas, a lot of methane would go into the air, and if a lot of methane goes into the air, it will tend to stay longer because the processes that normally remove it get overwhelmed. There's thought to be the crude equivalent of all the GHG civilization could emit (using the units of CO2-equivalent) sitting up in the Arctic permafrost as methane, so if it blows, it puts us in a world of hurt.

    CO2 is normally a fairly minor greenhouse gas that gets emitted by decomposition and burning, and taken up by photosynthesis (the fast process that has a small pool of carbon), dissolving in the oceans (slower, but a bigger pool), dissolving in ocean sediments (bigger still, but slower still), and erosion of silicate minerals in igneous rocks (the biggest pool, but the slowest to happen). The problem with CO2 is that it's one of the most stable molecules out there, so if it's not removed by some process, it will stay around forever. When there's a surplus of CO2 emissions, as now, it builds up in the air as it overwhelms the other processes (photosynthesis, oceanic dissolution, etc) that can only take out so much CO2. After we finish dicking around with the climate, at business as usual we'll saturate the oceans, meaning that some surplus CO2 will stay in the air for 100,000 to 400,000 years until the big, slow process of silicate erosion and things like deposition of black, carbon-rich shales in anoxic ocean waters pulls it out of the air.

    Hope this helps.

    934:

    In my view it’s worse than that As someone whose career has gone uni doing civil degree (dropped out) Construction engineer Finished degree with emphasis on particular structural disciplines that would be useful in construction Construction engineer again Moved to the US and various odd jobs Consulting Engineer - demolition Consulting Engineer - Site/Civil Consulting Engineer - environmental (in the hazardous waste clean up sort) Remediation Specialist for a major utility provider Consulting Engineer - environmental

    I am about to start a new job, primarily because the number of people with an appropriate career mix/discipline set like above is very rare

    Apart from the obvious massive discipline gaps such as between Engineering and Architecture; or all the software ones so many people here can elucidate better than I..... It is turtles all the way, even the sub-sub disciplines can not respect other sub-sub disciplines, silos and of course complete arseholes; it’s amazing anything gets built at all even if it is years late and massively over-budget

    935:

    Heteromeles @ 918 a widely shared desire to get the corruption and the money out of politics In the youessay? EASY - make the election spending rules the same as the UK & stop the INSANE amounts being spent on elections & political advertising .... @ 933 ... FOUR (4)°C actually ...

    Rex Gatch @ 934 See the current "Crossrail" utter fuck-up in th UK Rad various posts in "London Reconnections" (Blog) for more information

    936:

    Greg

    I found LR by accident and did a wee double take when I saw you there

    Rex

    937:

    Look, we're still not good at this Faking Human[tm] thing, but here's a joke:

    "Hey, Mr Scott, why is One97 Communications actively involved with pushing for Global Thermo-Nuclear War?"

    looks at India Media ++WAAAR++ beats

    Yeah.

    We'd advise not sniping @ little leagues but answering questions. Like: "$100,000,000 weddings, did we meet you there?" and "Modi: why the fuck are you pushing this shit during the election" and "Mr Buffet is a big big fan of stable markets and a glowing pile of glass is not quite what he intended for his investment".

    But we're not HSS. Or Goyim.

    Explain it on Tuesday. Just don't Skype it like you usually do.

    938:

    Re: Relationship among CO2, H20, CH4 & climate change

    Thanks! Appreciate the overview provided - I find it difficult to visualize the complexity of CC processes when papers focus on only one of these molecules at a time.

    939:

    Smartphone with an 18AH battery from Energizer. 18mm thick and built like a brick... but it solves the "why does the USB cable from my phone to the permanently attached battery bank keep failing" problem.

    https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2019/02/i-want-energizers-power-max-p18k-pop-massive-unit-of-a-phone/

    940:

    Hmmm. So in December, when we're looking back at the most important news of the year, the biggest event will most likely be:

    a) Brexit happened b) Trump impeached c) a full-on war between India and Pakistan d) none of the above.

    941:

    I'm saying d: something we haven't been expecting.

    Trump invading Mexico, perhaps. Not "the US military", but Trump :)

    You haven't listed China or Russia doing something ugly. Really bad cases would be China putting peacekeeping forces into Kashmir or Russia deciding that half of Ukraine isn't enough. Or maybe that Trump is a bad puppet and they can get a better one by killing him.

    A truly bizarre outcome would be discovering that 4chan really is running the troll farms and now that they have Brazil they can look to France or Canada.... hey, Australia has federal elections soon, wouldn't it be funny-omg if we end up with Fraser Anning or Pauline Hanson as PM? Although Pauline can be funny

    942:

    Sorry, Mr. C and the Rs ("prion disease"[1]) were distracting many Americans today, and I was certainly no exception. Shorts, or something else? I have negative feelings about active(manipulative) shorts though maybe that's just in part conceptual bias; also don't get actively personally involved in the markets. (Just started poking, tx for the refocus away from the squirrel.) India-Pakistan air conflict: Sensex loses over 200 points, Nifty falls below 10,800; Karachi Stock Exchange tanks 4%

    [1] I have a slightly better impression of the current ethical state of Mr. C than Mr. Pierce, to be clear. Still don't forgive his career.

    943:

    Apologies if this is a hijacking of the blog. If OGH decides this is out of line I will bow my head and quietly slink away.

    I have been looking at the Labour party antisemitism row from across the pond (northern part) and I must say I am gobsmacked.

    I did see EC's post on the issue and am wondering if his conclusions are generally shared.

    Is the pressure on Corbyn entirely due to his support for Palestinians or has he done (or not done) something different from his predecessors?

    I checked with the fount of all knowledge (Wikipedia) about Baroness Chakrabarti's career. It does look like the sort of life that gets a peerage. Am I wrong? Do the people who are attacking her have real credibility?

    The demand for Williamson's suspension before an investigation smacks of the Red Queen's execution first, then the trial, procedure.

    Do the people who show up with a list of names on Corbyn's doorstep really want him to have the power to evict people from the party? I would be seriously upset if my party ran like that (there was a vaguely similar incident in the NDP a while ago).

    There is more stuff but I think this is enough to be going on with.

    944:

    I would welcome correction from Charlie if any of it is genuinely justified, but to me it looks like pure manufactured bollocks.

    Antisemitism, being notably associated with Nazis, is a very convenient accusation for actual Nazis to throw around to divert adverse attention away from themselves and onto their opponents. And they have a very convenient hook to hang it on in the controversy over adopting an "official" definition of antisemitism which includes criticism of the Israeli government as antisemitic. Logical people naturally aren't keen on that, and illogical people with an axe to grind then find them a natural target to shriek and gibber at.

    And there sure is a whole lot of shrieking and gibbering going on. Just the sheer volume and suddenness of it alone, without anything else, would have me thinking "manufactured bollocks" no matter what the controversy was about. And so far I haven't been aware of anything that isn't either ridiculous or else is only "antisemitic" in terms of the abovedescribed logical fallacy. If there is any actual signal in it anywhere, it's entirely swamped by the noise.

    "Is the pressure on Corbyn entirely due to his support for Palestinians or has he done (or not done) something different from his predecessors?"

    What he's done is be a genuine left-wing politician with a non-negligible chance of being the leader of a genuine left-wing government - with enough of a chance to cause the right wing to shit themselves and engage in a multi-pronged campaign of FUD. The antisemitism row is a prong of FUD targeted at the sentiments of a segment that has been largely inclined to immunity from the "<whine!> but we won't have any money! <blub>" virus that has succeeded well against the segment who confuse monied conformity with intellectual attainment. And it's targeted in an incredibly gauche and clumsy way, which is another indication of its being the output of a propaganda machine.

    (I'm not saying the incidence of antisemitism in the Labour party is zero, simply because the incidence of anti-$group-ism in $party is non-zero for any $group and $party of non-negligible size. I am saying that the true incidence is irrelevant to the campaign and even if it was zero it wouldn't make any noticeable difference to the row.)

    945:

    I'm actually not sure I understand this universal hatred of Julian Assange. Yes he's an egotistical douchebag, but that wasn't a crime last time I checked. Even if he's done more bad than good (which I'm doubting) it seems to me the worst thing he did (that everyone's talking about) was leaking the Clinton emails.

    And no, he did not rape those women. The allegations were false.

    946:

    Heteromeles @ 940 a) May not happen - provided we can get an "extensioN" so we can have a referendum. Trouble there is that Corbyn is even more stupid & only fractionally less stubborn than May - & both arties are bitterly divided b) NOT going to happen - much better to have him completely disgraced & ridiculed & have everything dragged through the mud, repeatedly, until the 2020 election c) Unlikely ( I hope ) - religion, isn't it wonderful. Yes, I know Modi is a shit, but, as usual the extreme religous nutters inside - Pakistan in this case - started this insanity. d) See above

    Moz @ 941 China backing Pakistan? Given their behaviour in Xinjiang, is that really likely?

    jrootham @ 943 Corbyn is incompetent & stupid And yes, there is a v disturbing brand of antisemitism in current Liebour, stating with an entire-justified dislike of bibi, that then spills over into "Israel shouldn't exist, broad-jumpinmg over half-a-dozen intervening issues. Someone I used to know has caught this, very unfortunately. Sorry Pigeon, but I must disagree ....

    Lars @ 945 I Suggest you ACTUALLY READ .. my post @ 910 & that of grs1961 @ 913 Assange was principally responsible for the whole: "Global Warming is a Hoax" meme & the "hockey stick" allegations ... and he's almost certainly in Putin's pay. No he's a nasty criminal shit.

    947:

    Assange was principally responsible for the whole: "Global Warming is a Hoax" meme & the "hockey stick" allegations

    A quick Google search completely disproves this. Yes, they released the docs behind the so-called "climategate" but the intent was never to disprove anything, according to this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W17dW_aJEwU

    On the contrary, Wikileaks seems to be instrumental in revealing the shady deals behind the curtains. Example:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/dec/03/wikileaks-us-manipulated-climate-accord

    Wikileaks seems to be firmly in the "climate change is real" camp:

    https://search.wikileaks.org/?q=%22climate+change%22+%7C+%22global+warming%22

    and he's almost certainly in Putin's pay

    Even if true, I fail to see how this is a crime. I can see how you think it should be a crime, but that is something else.

    No he's a nasty criminal shit

    Again, evidence please.

    948:

    A matt brown spring / clip - that is pure evil.

    949:

    ... oysters do a damn good job of cleansing polluted water

    Even more reason not to put them in my face. I don't deny their right to exist, just their place in my diet.

    950:

    To be fair to Sturmey-Archer I don't think they come from the factory like that. It's just that after churning around for years in the mixture of manky ancient oil, water, and nanopowdered rust that you typically find inside a three-speed, every component is a permanent dark iron-oxide brown which is deeply enough ingrained that even scrubbing in petrol won't fetch it off.

    951:

    China backing Pakistan?Given their behaviour in Xinjiang, is that really likely?

    If you think Chinese forces in Kashmir would be there to support Pakistan I think you'll be even more surprised than Pakistan would be when it turned out that Kashmir had always been part of China.

    952:

    To be fair to Sturmey-Archer...

    ... there aren't many mechanical products that you open up to service after 40+ years of use and complain that some bits are worn out and that's just not on. I have worked with a guy who was a bit of an expert on those things, and some of the complaints were genuinely bizarre. "I think it's about 50 years old, this is the bike my grandfather rode every day for 20 years and I don't think it's ever been serviced. Can you tell me why it doesn't work very well?"

    My Rohloff is starting to make a nasty grinding noise after only 16 years and I am distinctly not impressed. I need to ring the nice people at Rohloff Australia and see if I can post it off to be serviced. Again. It's one of the early ones where the oil seals needed to be replaced (more than 10 years ago).

    953:

    If you're using oysters to filter polluted water you really don't want to eat them. Hint: Minamata disease.

    Parenthetically: apologies for the lack of a new topic, folks, things have been busy. (Rolling towards the end of a book.)

    954:

    You are talking bollocks about Assange - no, he did NOT start it, nor were his disclosures even a major factor in promoting it - it had a strong, well-funded, loosely organised campaign behind it long before he got involved. It seems likely that he was guilty of sexual assault, but no more than that, and the extreme legal irregularities by Sweden, the USA and even the UK make it almost certain that his fears were and are justified. You are siding with the likes of Cheney and Blair on this.

    Similarly, your irrational hatred of Corbyn is taking the side of the likes of Netanyahu. Yes, there is some anti-semitism in Labour, but less than in the Conservatives, and almost all of the accusations are NOT about that but about not backing Israel's behaviour, no matter how atrocious. By your postings, you are condoning Israel's treatment of Gaza.

    And again, while I agree that Old Labour was ghastly for the economy and society, it was NOTHING LIKE as bad as our recent governments, let alone the one we will get if Labour is emasculated.

    955:

    Yes :-) The thing about them that pisses me off most is when they started using cheap and nasty bearings about half a century back. Those are nowadays the main form of failure, though the pawls come second (as they always did). The same is true for the SRAM Spectro, though it also has a fragile external changing system that is a bggr to repair. My Rohloff is only 3 years old and has only been used for about 400 hours.

    956:

    Thank you for making me grin. A one-man invasion of Mexico by Trump in person would be grounds for opening some champagne :-)

    957:

    Para 2 - No apologies necessary, or even looked for. I'm sure I speak for the entire commentariat when I say that we'd rather you were healthy, happy and writing than trying to come up with new blog topics every few days.

    958:

    he's an egotistical douchebag, but

    More accurately, he's a public figure who uses his power to hurt other people. He's apparently proud of the negative effect he's had on world affairs. Allegedly on the basis that "everyone should be open about everything all the time", except himself and wikileaks who should be allowed to have whatever secrets and privacy they desire. I'm honestly surprised at how little of wikileaks internal affairs has been leaked.

    And no, he did not rape those women.

    What he has admitted is that he didn't wear a condom despite that being a condition that he had agreed to. That might not be an offence under Swedish law, but to me that is not consensual sex.

    He also says he thought it seemed like a honey trap. He knowingly took a huge risk and lost. Sucks to be him.

    He still refuses to deny the actual allegations(*) and prefers to slander the accusers instead. That kind of nit-picking and bullshit makes him seem like someone you shouldn't trust in a sexual situation which lends credibility to the allegations. It's so common to have actual rape victims say "I just want him to apologise/have an STD test/go away" that it tells us absolutely nothing about what actually happened.

    That makes it kinda tricky for me, because on the one hand I think wikileaks is generally useful, that the USA shouldn't be allowed to roam the world kidnapping and murdering people that annoy them (murdering Bin Laden makes Nuremberg look like justice by comparison). But on the other hand, saying that puts me in the company of pro-rape activists and vocal conspiracy theorists not to mention Russian trolls and 4chan. Company that makes me think "maybe I'm wrong. Probably I'm wrong".

    • "I didn't rape her" is not a useful denial in this case because as people keep saying "just having nonconsensual sex isn't rape, you have to ..." for some frankly terrifying values of "...".
    959:

    Similarly, your irrational hatred of Corbyn is taking the side of the likes of Netanyahu. Yes, there is some anti-semitism in Labour, but less than in the Conservatives, and almost all of the accusations are NOT about that but about not backing Israel's behaviour, no matter how atrocious. By your postings, you are condoning Israel's treatment of Gaza.

    Referring to the bit in bold, I'd suggest that's a bit of a logical leap...

    My problem with Corbyn is that he's got some rather nasty friends.

    So: I would like to think that I am in no way antisemitic. But I can and will criticise Israeli government policy and IDF tactics regarding Gaza and the West Bank, when appropriate.

    However, just as I could quite easily criticise the behaviour of the government of Northern Ireland, or the Security Forces during the Troubles, I could do so without feeling the need to stand alongside, and praise, terrorists such as Gerry Adams.

    And I can quite easily criticise the behaviour of Netanyahu's government without feeling the need to stand alongside, and praise, terrorists such as Maher al-Taher.

    Corbyn doesn't appear to understand that when you share a platform with demonstrably violent racists or bigots, in some political show of mutual support, that you will appear to be agreeing with their political viewpoint and bigotries. And that if you don't look into the background of the people you're going to be standing with and speaking alongside, then you're unbelievably naive. I mean - who poses in a photo with a wreath to commemorate dead members of Black September? (Tunisia, 2014 - it was Black September who murdered the Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics)

    If he's too stupid to understand this, he's not fit to be a Party Leader - still less a Prime Minister. Because the alternative explanation is, of course, that he knew perfectly well who he was standing alongside and praising, and that he agrees with them. You choose (personally, I go for "unfit moron with a case of political Dunning-Kruger")

    960:

    EC @ 954 may I politely suggest that YOU ACTUALLY READ what I wrote? No, I really don't like Cobyn, but I'm not a fan of May, either. You must have missed the bit where I said ... stating with an entirely-justified dislike of bibi - so how am I "taking his side" please? The one point where I do agree with you is the "assault" charges against Assange - that was a put-up job. .... folowing on to ... Moz @ 958 Which is spot on ... including the "Um, err, maybe, oh shit" bits at the end.

    And on the same topic, I'm going to bold part of the comment from Martin:

    Corbyn doesn't appear to understand that when you share a platform with demonstrably violent racists or bigots, in some political show of mutual support, that you will appear to be agreeing with their political viewpoint and bigotries. And that if you don't look into the background of the people you're going to be standing with and speaking alongside, then you're unbelievably naive. I mean - who poses in a photo with a wreath to commemorate dead members of Black September? (Tunisia, 2014 - it was Black September who murdered the Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics) If he's too stupid to understand this, he's not fit to be a Party Leader - still less a Prime Minister. Or, for that matter, his continued support for Maduro - simply becaus the youessay doesn't like Maduro. Yeah - Dunning-Kruger it is.

    961:

    I saw the Energizer brick-phone.

    Two points.

  • I have an iPhone XS+ with the Apple external battery case; it's a little bit slimmer, but not much. Similar transparent use-case — it doubles or triples the life of the phone by in effect giving it a bigger built-in battery without weakening the shell, removable internal batteries having proven to be an issue with thin, large screen phones/tablets. Battery expansion cases are totally a Thing if you keep running out of juice and buy one of the major brands (e.g. Samsung); the advantage of the Energizer thing is, you can leave it home if you don't need it today. (Conversely, you can't club somebody to death with it quite so easily, or turn it into a very expensive field-expedient thermite charge.)

  • As Ars Technica's article noted, it's missing a couple of tricks, notably an old-school headphone jack (for which there should be plenty of space). Me, I'd have also gone for IP68 dust and water resistance (prolonged immersion to 1 metre, resistance to harmful dust) and given it a rubberized, grippable, removable/shock resistant outer case as well. If you're going to hulk up your phone that far, you might as well go the whole hog (another couple of mils won't put the customers off and will make it driven-over-by-a-tank proof).

  • It needs a flashlight, car jump leads, and a built-in Swiss Army knife too!

  • 962:

    I had, of course. You are supporting 'his'(*) campaign to emasculate the last major opposition to 'his' policies in the UK Parliament. I suggest that you read what YOU wrote in the post I am responding to - you are sharing a platform with Netanyahu etc. And so is Martin, especially w.r.t. Yemen.

    No, I do NOT accept that playing lip-service in the form of muted criticism allows you to escape condemnation for your(!) vocal and extreme support of state terrorism and atrocities.

    (*) Shorthand for that bunch of racialist terrorists.

    (!) Both of you.

    963:

    I would welcome correction from Charlie if any of it is genuinely justified, but to me it looks like pure manufactured bollocks.

    I agree completely, but with three additional observations:

  • Corbyn's entire career has been as a protest politician who supports the underdog. Not all underdogs are good guys, though (cough, cough, Aung San Suu Kyi in Burma/Myanmar: not looking so good wrt. muslim climate chnage refugees from across the border), and over 30 years as a protest pol Corbyn has gotten into bed with some folks who he should subsequently have had the good sense to distance himself from. (Talk about handing ammunition to your enemies.) Take Palestine for an example: it could mean Fatah (a comparatively respectable org), or it could mean Hamas, who are to Fatah pretty much how the EDL are to mainstream British politics pre-2010. If you just support "the Palestinian struggle" then it's really easy to accidentally shake hands with the wrong people, or be accused of doing so by your rivals.

  • Labour peaked recently at about 600,000 members. If the true level of anti-semitism in the British population is 1% (it isn't: it's much, much higher—I'd say it's conservatively at least 1% extreme hardcore race-hatred and 10% unthinking run-of-the-mill racism), then that means we could expect to find 6000 anti-semites in Labour. In this era of social media it's not hard to do an online search for people who are (a) Labour members and (b) anti-semites — it's what Cambridge Analytica (cough, SCL and their other sock puppets) are for.

  • Remember, Conservatives always project. Now ask yourself why they're trying to project anti-semitism onto their foe? Hint, Sayida Warsi, hint, institutional islamophobia ...

  • 964:

    I'm actually not sure I understand this universal hatred of Julian Assange. Yes he's an egotistical douchebag, but that wasn't a crime last time I checked.

    He suckered me in 2011. Since then I've learned:

    a) He's in bed with RT and the rest of the Russian-backed right wing propaganda noise machine targeting western elections via wikileaks (not just the US and UK but also France). In fact, he seems to be just another a Bannonite white supremacist shitbag, once you get through the smoke and noise. If you look at his original writings about what wikileaks was for, it sounded like a great civil disobedience/media transparency initiative: but oddly, since about 2014 their guns have only pointed in one direction — one that favours the neo-nazi right.

    b) On the balance of probabilities I now see his behaviour over the Swedish rape allegations as circumstantial evidence that yes, he's acting real guilty. (Hint: he'd be at far lower risk of extradition to the USA on espionage charges in Sweden than in the UK, where he fled.) Ironically he's now spent longer in the Ecuadorian embassy than the maximum prison sentence he faced in Sweden on the basis of the charges …

    c) There are much, much better role models for 21st century whistleblowers out there. (Again: Chelsea Manning, Reality Winner, Edward Snowden: on the not-a-whistleblower-but-good-folks team we also have the likes of Carole Cadwalladr.)

    TLDR: I hadn't figured out the nexus back in 2011 (more fool me), but from 2019's viewpoint Assange is clearly a PUA/MRA right winger (and possibly a white supremacist), who made one single mistake — he crawled out of the woodwork a few years too early and set up as a whistleblower under the Bush/Obama regime, which was authoritarian and secretive but not totally batshit crazy in the post-2015 mode.

    If he'd come along in 2014 he'd be the White House press secretary by now (or, at worst, a fellow traveller for all-around scumbag Milo Yiannopoulos).

    965:

    Yes. What I don't know is WHY there was that change in 2014, because there definitely was a change, both in his personal behaviour and wikileaks' behaviour. You might be right that he always was as nasty as he is now, but I somewhat doubt it - persecution (which is what it was) often brings out the extremes in people.

    Whether or not he was guilty of anything over that sexual encounter (and I agree that he probably was), he clearly was a selfish little shit even then. I doubt that it was set up as a honey trap, but there was considerable evidence that it was used as such post hoc by the authorities; the legal irregularities were published at the time, and they were surprising.

    Actually, in 2012, he had good reason to believe that he would have been extradited from Sweden and could resist it in the UK, though that is no longer the case; whether he was right, I can't say. What I half expected would have been a UK-Sweden deal by which he would have been extradited back to the UK on completion of the Swedish legal/criminal processes; the lack of such a deal rang alarm bells in my head.

    966:

    Thank you and Pigeon; I shall not respond further.

    I will add one slight, orthogonal, rider to your last sentence. How much of this is the Conservatives trying to draw attention from their faults, and how much is the practice of using any weapon (no matter how underhand) against them, I can't guess. Obviously, it ticks both boxes ....

    967:

    A one-man invasion of Mexico by Trump in person

    You mean like this?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q__bSi5rBlw

    968:

    +1

    Get another guest poster while you look after yourself. I vote for Greg on trains!

    969:

    I do have one small local question. Is GT a Common and Garden Red Baiter, or a Spotted or Herbaceous one?

    970:

    Not at all what I visualised, but conceptually related - I like it!

    971:

    If you're using oysters to filter polluted water you really don't want to eat them.

    As someone up thread mentioned, slurping down congealed snot never has appealed to me. No matter what the claims about sex. Growing said snot in a sewage system just adds to my reluctance.

    972:

    Battery expansion cases are totally a Thing if you keep running out of juice and buy one of the major brands

    I have an iPhone X (replaced a 6S+) and a year or two ago I found a battery that is almost identical in size to these. I have an 8" lightning cable to use when it is needed which is rarely. My main reason was for on planes when I got it but more and more than's not an issue. Anyone flying should do whatever is needed to have a full or nearly full charge on your phone when you land. Life is soooo much better.

    Anyway having a battery pack that is almost identical in size to my phone makes it easy to deal with. Especially the thinness.

    973:

    I like oysters. However, de gustibus non est disputandum.

    Another win for oysters is they sequester carbon in their shells.

    974:

    "Whether or not he was guilty of anything over that sexual encounter (and I agree that he probably was), he clearly was a selfish little shit even then."

    Thing is, when did being a selfish little shit become an internationally indictable crime?, that has cost this country millions of pounds in surveillance expenses, to see to it that Assange doesn't sneak out of the embassy in the night?

    As far as I can tell, the "crime" seems to comprise that he didn't use a condom, and some Scandi ex-girlfriend has been dredged up from somewhere, anywhere, and is being coached into insisting that this is rape, simply because she didn't find his loving spoonful bagged up in the bin next morning, accompanied by a correctly filled-in risk assessment.

    975:

    I and the spouse can enthusiastically endorse a company called Mophie that produces both external batteries and phone case/battery combinations. The case/battery for my iPhone 7 reliably takes the phone from 10% battery to 100%. I use two in rotation, and have yet to be totally out of charge even on transatlantic flights.

    976:

    More like, 1. Brexit delayed again 2. Trump fighting impeachment, as well as state criminal charges (Cohen's testimony to Congress,yesterday, suggests that his taxes aren't under audit (yet), so no excuses). 3. Election or coup in India against Modi?

    And, breaking news, Netanyahoo INDICTED.

    977:

    "On the balance of probabilities I now see his behaviour over the Swedish rape allegations as circumstantial evidence that yes, he's acting real guilty. (Hint: he'd be at far lower risk of extradition to the USA on espionage charges in Sweden than in the UK, where he fled.) Ironically he's now spent longer in the Ecuadorian embassy than the maximum prison sentence he faced in Sweden on the basis of the charges …"

    1: Circumstantial Evidence is not evidence. It's "He seems a bit shifty," and yes, he is, but so what?

    2: That he's spent longer in the Ecuadorian embassy is a consequence of his own histrionics, but at the end of the day his extradition to Sweden was not to face some "he said, she said" sexual offences case, now was it, really?

    It was to rubber-stamp his extradition to the United States where he would not have been put into a nice, Anders Brevik style Scandi prison, where you have access to the Internet and weekly rabbit therapy, it was to spend the rest of his life in a breeze block labyrinth where he was likely to be murdered at any time by anyone who fancied it, all quietly sanctioned as punishment for exposing people in authority.

    978:

    Roll, baby, roll!

    Let us know if you need someone to take the wheel while you're rollin'.

    979:

    EC @ 962 No I am NOT. As you have done with others, you are attributing ideas & motives which have not been expressed - except inside your head. HOW am I sharing a platform with bibi? Come on SHOW? I think he's a nasty little religious & possibly racist crook, who should have stayed in NYC fleecing clients - OK? Now STOP RAVING & again, read what I have actually written, not what's inside your head.

    Charlie @ 964 THANK YOU for that little expose ....

    jrootham @ 969 GROW UP I'm old-enough to have been right up to the intra-German Zonengrenze in the mid-1960's. As you might expect, I'm no fan of communism - apart form anything else, I regard it as a religion, with all that that implies. The blackmail, the vast body-count, the "holy books" full of bullshit, the lying "no true scotsman" excuses, the works. I consistently vote for my local Labour MP who is actually a Social Democrat, who has crapped all over: Loan Sharks & people trying to restrict women's reproductive rights & shit landlords, more power to her elbow. I also suggest you READ what I said about May, as well as Corbyn & both of their stupidity & stubborneness, OK?

    However ... @ 973 Oysters are all very well, but round where I live & the next-door country ... never mind Oysters, though they are grown/cultivated in our away-from-the Thames seashores ... MUSSELS ... "Colchester" or anywhere from the Essex-coast Mussels ... Moules Marinieres with a dash of chili in the cream suce ... DRIBBLE

    whitroth @ 976 (breaking news) Good - now to get a conviction ....

    980:

    ROTFLMAO!!!

    Love it. Forwarding it to a list. Liked, esp. the rug crawling off the body....

    981:

    Then stop promoting the anti-Corbyn/anti-Labour falsehoods and propaganda that is being supported (and even fomented) by his camp - see #963, #944 and #820. While you continue to do that, you ARE supporting him, whether you intend to or not.

    982:

    Sweden does not extradite people for espionage, never have, exceedingly unlikely ever to do so. It is explicitly ruled out by the relevant treaties. The CIA have done snatches on Swedish soil, but in a high profile case like this, trying that would more than likely end up with a grab team in prison.

    983:

    EC @ 981 Oh do stop it, please ... you've got People's Front of Judea syndrome I'm afraid.

    984:

    I am thinking you rather lack credibility on the political front here.

    985:

    Don't count your chickens on (1) yet. Even if there is a delay, it isn't going to change anything - except that, under the EU rules, I believe that only a single extension is allowed. So agreeing to a short delay would kill of any chance of a second referendum, leaving a choice between May's deal and No Deal (which is what she wants).

    If we do sign up to May's deal, the Conservatives will almost certainly be able to hang on until after the interim period ends, and we will simply have another couple of years of anti-EU insults and unreasonable demands, followed by No Deal.

    Worse, they will sign a USA deal that amounts to indentured servitude and, even if Labour gets in, they will have a country whose economy is going down the tubes and a deal with the USA that stops them doing anything about it.

    986:

    I mean - who poses in a photo with a wreath to commemorate dead members of Black September? (Tunisia, 2014)

    Jeremy Corbyn doesn't, that is pose for a photograph with a wreath to commemorate dead members of Black September. The press told you he did, the reality is somewhat different.

    In 1985 Israel launched an air attack on a Palestinian Liberation Organisation office in Tunisia in reprisal for a terrorist attack in Israel (which the PLO denied carrying out). The air attack killed a number of Palestinians and some Tunisians too. The UN Security Council condemned the raid, even the US couldn't stomach it.

    Jeremy Corbyn, on a visit to Tunisia many years later, laid a wreath at a memorial to the dead Tunisians killed by Israel's attack. The cemetery is the same place the Palestinians killed in the attack are buried but not where he laid the wreath. This was conflated by the press to be him laying a wreath on the graves of terrorists. Big win for Rupert Murdoch and co.

    987:

    Returning to "Sweden does not extradite" Marta Rita Velazquez - ring master of a Cuban spy ring, living free and clear in Stockholm - that is the newest case I could find, though not the most high profile - That would be Edward Lee Howard, who Sweden also flatly refused to extradite.

    988:

    The charge involved US based data theft, as in the Wikileaks files, and since anything can be inferred to have gone through a US based server at some point, who are you to infer that the crime is NOT subject to US law?

    Get your textbooks out and defend it...

    989:

    Mophie

    I'm familiar with them. I personally don't want a case for day to day use. Too much bulk.

    What I like about this one is how thin it is. So when I do take it out of "my bag" it can slip into my pants pocket and not look like I'm smuggling or something.

    But I can slip this AND my phone into a jeans pocket or even my shirt pocket. Now that most planes I'm on have power at the seats it gets its most use when doing things like walking around a new city or similar.

    990:

    Heteromeles @ 940: Hmmm. So in December, when we're looking back at the most important news of the year, the biggest event will most likely be:

    a) Brexit happened
    b) Trump impeached
    c) a full-on war between India and Pakistan
    d) none of the above.

    Odds on favorite is "d) none of the above". Although, if it's 'c' I question if we'll still be around or have time for blog comments come December.

    991:

    Yay! Finally someone with a proper sense of proportion.

    Although to be fair, I don't know that the other nuclear powers would get involved.

    Here is a simulation of the crap cloud from 100 nukes going off in the India-Pakistan area. Looks like a year without a summer perhaps, not an end-Cretaceous doom fest.

    In that regard, from what little the news media are saying, my major concern would be if India thinks they can win the war with Pakistan, and don't deescalate. Pakistan's made noises toward deescalating, now we have to see if India reciprocates or tries to press the advantage.

    I'm pulling for B myself, because that would indicate a fairly boring year. And a year without Brexit or nuclear war would be good, no?

    992:

    Circumstantial Evidence is not evidence. It totally is. It really, really is.

    It's "He seems a bit shifty," and yes, he is, but so what?

    No, that isn’t what circumstantial means. It’s “he was seen in the vicinity with a gun, we know he has a motive to kill the guy, the guy was shot with the same kind of gun the guy was seen with, we’ve found a dumped gun with his fingerprints. We don’t have physical evidence that he pulled the trigger and no-one saw him shoot the guy” That’s what they would call a circumstantial case. I don’t know what you are actually thinking of, but whatever it is doesn’t seem to apply here.

    FWIW I don’t think the case againsat Assange in Sweden is a circumstantial one, it’s actually pretty straightforward, the complainants being their own witnesses after all.

    some "he said, she said" sexual offences case

    Wow, great trivialisation of rape there, sunshine. Because obviously if it depends on witness testimony it’s inherently suspect? You maybe don’t realise this makes your statements on other topics less credible.

    993:

    A year without summer would be bad enough, especially with a concentration of crop failures in and around the subcontinent. Not humanity-ending or even civilisation-ending, but pretty horrible. Let’s hope. Not sure there’s much anyone can do about it from outside the tent.

    994:

    Pigeon @ 930: It's also a good reason not to eat the little packages of concentrated pollution...

    Charlie Stross @ 953: If you're using oysters to filter polluted water you really don't want to eat them. Hint: Minamata disease.

    David L @ 971: As someone up thread mentioned, slurping down congealed snot never has appealed to me. No matter what the claims about sex. Growing said snot in a sewage system just adds to my reluctance.

    jrootham @ 973: I like oysters. However, de gustibus non est disputandum.

    Another win for oysters is they sequester carbon in their shells.

    I don't eat RAW oysters either, but it appears to me you have ALL missed an important part of my comment with regard to oysters cleaning up pollution:

    OTOH, oysters do a damn good job of cleansing polluted water. That's a good reason to keep them around even if you're not going to eat them.

    You'd be stupid to eat oysters from polluted waters, even if they've been cooked. In North Carolina oyster harvesting is done from designated beds.

    IF, at any time those beds are subject to unsafe water conditions (e.g. polluted run-off) those beds are closed down and harvesting is prohibited UNTIL the water can be certified clean again and test samples show that the oysters in those beds no longer likely to include toxic elements.

    995:

    There were also noises that US officials (perhaps the long-rumored "adults") were working hard to cool things down.

    And yes, a year without a summer would be extremely bad (given that most of us lack a year's worth of cached food), and the bombing would probably leading to a billion or more people dead, mostly concentrated in the South Asia region but certainly not limited to there.

    According to the same guys doing this set of simulations, though, a war between the US and Russia would be something like ten to thirty times worse.

    996:

    It kind of amuses me that we're talking about Corbyn hanging around with the wrong people as a horrible offense, but at the same time some people are insisting that hanging around with (to be generous) rape apologists is good and necessary.

    The Corbyn thing is especially bad because no-one is holding the right to the same standard. The list of actual Prime Ministers who have been seen with and supported war criminals is basically the same as the list of Prime Ministers. They line up with Mcnamara and Kissinger, Peres and Netanyahu, no-one blinks an eyelid. When Obama had Bin Laden murdered none of the "law and order" types demanded he be condemned let alone prosecuted, there were not even the pitiful "diplomatic consequences" Russia faced for the Skirpal murders (if only Russia had crashed a literal black helicopter in Britain during that operation...). Or we could talk about UK support for the atrocities in Yemen and the different standards applied to the leaders of Saud and Iran.

    997:

    He's in bed with RT and the rest of the Russian-backed right wing propaganda noise machine Don't remember RT doing any of the "right-wing" stuff, except them being, you know, independent journalists. Well, unless we don't count the people who would like to censor any opinion that is incompatible to theirs, like Fishhook that now routinely blocks people who express any sympathy towards "wrong" opinion.

    As for Assange, probably you need to update your knowledge a bit - even though I remember RT talking a lot about him, I didn't hear about anything between them in years. Probably because US have successfully done job isolating him. At best, RT are updating his status in his current residence condition. Probably because he managed to somehow slip and discredit himself after all. Anybody remembers this guy? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_v._Strauss-Kahn

    targeting western elections via wikileaks The funny thing about these accusations is that their authors (usually, but not always) really think that Russian government and expert community considers ELECTIONS as something important in modern world of deep-state politics.

    ALL non-liberal experts I heard in recent years agree that the entire election cycle has degraded to a rudimentary anachronism and a political talk-show in the "developed" democracies. In fact, this is the definition of that sort of the regime - when majority have exactly zero influence of actions of the state, while they still have to preserve the visibility of solidarity and freedom of choice under the threat of being prosecuted or shunned. Wasting money on "influencing" such election seems to be the last thing a sane person would ever do. I.e. there's nothing to target to begin with.

    Now, if you don't mind, here's a shining example of waist-deep shit into which any kind of NATO "cooperation" usually leads. https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/13/europe/north-macedonia-name-change-intl/index.html https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/13/north-macedonia-takes-its-seat-at-the-nato-table-for-the-first-time https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-47258809 https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/15/north-macedonia-says-it-stopped-attack-by-islamic-state-supporters

    998:

    "No, that isn’t what circumstantial means. It’s “he was seen in the vicinity with a gun, we know he has a motive to kill the guy, the guy was shot with the same kind of gun the guy was seen with, we’ve found a dumped gun with his fingerprints. We don’t have physical evidence that he pulled the trigger and no-one saw him shoot the guy” That’s what they would call a circumstantial case. I don’t know what you are actually thinking of, but whatever it is doesn’t seem to apply here."

    Thing is, precisely: Can you THEN prove he killed him? As in, is Assange a categorical, according to the dictionary, rapist? Stupid, regrettable, categorical bad sex, that you regret almost immediately afterwards, yes, but is that rape?

    As in, Bad Sex.

    "Wow, great trivialisation of rape there, sunshine. Because obviously if it depends on witness testimony it’s inherently suspect? You maybe don’t realise this makes your statements on other topics less credible."

    That isn't a great trivialisation of rape, sunshine.

    It emphasises that when it occurs it is a crime. It often involves violent assault and injury. This case is so vague that it is laughable. Not "consenually" using a condom when having sex is not rape, which is what appears to have what has occurred here. He seems to have been either drunk, forgetful or just plain lazy, but, well, is that literally, actually, and according to the dictionary, an act of rape?

    If so, your definition of sex literally includes a risk assesment, if not, you are cheapening something and you deserve to be killed by a group of feminists. Yes? Sunshine?

    There is a broader agenda here in respect to why other people want Assange in prison, it would help it you tried to educate yourself as to what that agenda is, instead of accusing me of being a rape apologist.

    999:

    Lars @ 945: I'm actually not sure I understand this universal hatred of Julian Assange. Yes he's an egotistical douchebag, but

    That in itself would be reason enough. But on top of that, he's a lying hypocrite and a crypto-fascist. I don't actually hate Julian Assange, I just don't trust him.

    And no, he did not rape those women. The allegations were false.

    So why then does he ACT so guilty?

    Greg Tingey @ 946: ... and he's almost certainly in Putin's pay.
    No he's a nasty criminal shit.

    I'm not so sure he's actually on the Kremlin's payroll. He may just be a fellow traveler or maybe Putin has enough Kompromat on him to keep him toeing the party line.

    Why did wikileaks turn down a trove of documents from inside the Russian Interior Ministry at the same time they were publishing the hacked Democratic Party emails?

    And do you remember Assange's claim during the 2008 financial crisis that he had significant documents from Bank of America and other banks with evidence of criminal culpability?

    Whatever happened with that? Why did wikileaks never publish any of that evidence? Did he get bought off?

    I think it is also telling that the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists didn't trust wikileaks to be part of their Panama Papers investigation.

    1000:

    Bill Arnold @ 942: I have a slightly better impression of the current ethical state of Mr. C than Mr. Pierce, to be clear. Still don't forgive his career.

    There has been considerable commentary from the punditocracy on how Trump corrupted the GOP. I don't buy it. They were already corrupt before Trump got here. He just took advantage of their corruption to snatch their party "base" out from under them.

    W.C. Fields said it best, "You can't cheat an honest man!"

    1001:

    Its not actually a matter of legal technicality.

    It is extremely obvious the US wants him for political crimes (Espionage) and that means Sweden wont turn him over even if they find a non-political charge to try to extradite him for - the US tried this dodge with Edward Lee Howard, who, honestly, they wanted much more badly, and it did not work.

    I mean, this does not prove Assange is hiding in bad faith, given his situation, being utterly paranoid would be to be expected, but.. trusting the integrity of Ecuador over Sweden is.. a strange decision.

    1002:

    _Moz_ @ 958: That makes it kinda tricky for me, because on the one hand I think wikileaks is generally useful

    Wikileaks could have been useful if Assange hadn't sold it out to the GRU. Now it's just another tentacle of the Chekists.

    1003:

    "I mean, this does not prove Assange is hiding in bad faith, given his situation, being utterly paranoid would be to be expected, but.. trusting the integrity of Ecuador over Sweden is.. a strange decision.

    It's maybe a matter that Ecuador has no extradition treaty with the USA for it's own reasons, which I would think is the case.

    The Swedish extradition situation potentially involves the idea that they will hand Assange over to the USA for ANY reason that they find. Anything at all, down to the absence of an unfilled condon in a bin, that constitutes evidence that the guy's a rapist.

    Then he can be extradited to the USA and let to to rot in prison. Wonderful!

    1004:

    ... Again, this is not theoretical - Sweden has a record of telling the US (and everyone else) to pound sand on this issue. There are ex-spies currently enjoying their retirement from that life there.

    And eh, the rape charges happened in Sweden. He could easily do time for them, but it would be in a Swedish prison, they are not grounds for extradition.

    1005:

    Jeremy Corbyn doesn't, that is pose for a photograph with a wreath to commemorate dead members of Black September. The press told you he did, the reality is somewhat different.

    The C4 "Fact Check" goes into some detail about what claims were made, what wreaths were laid, at what memorials. Look at the photos and the detailed claims (including the statement of Jeremy himself in the Morning Star):

    https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-jeremy-corbyn-and-the-wreath-row

    I also notice that you didn't make any attempt to defend his invitation of convicted PIRA volunteers to Westminster? Presumably because there's no denying that one: In October 1984, two weeks after an IRA bomb killed five at the Tory Party conference in Brighton, Corbyn invited convicted IRA volunteers Linda Quigley and Gerry MacLochlainn to the House of Commons.

    https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-corbyn-on-northern-ireland

    He's got form. Once is an accident, repeated occasions over decades suggest that he's a terrorist groupie (sorry, "freedom fighters").

    1006:

    I would disagree. They would find some reason to hand him over. They would use the reality that he was in custody to examine how the the US is interested in him, and from there, dutifully assist the United States law enforcement agencies.

    1007:

    The Corbyn thing is especially bad because no-one is holding the right to the same standard.

    Not sure about that. Remember the whole debate about whether Pinochet should be extradited to Spain? He was detained in the UK.

    What about all those protests in London when Trump, or Muhammad bin Salman, visits? Or perhaps the trouble that Oliver North found himself in when doing arms deals for Reagan?

    What about sundry far-right demagogues from the USA who found themselves denied entry to the UK? Those Police and Prison Officers sacked for being found to be on the BNP membership roll? The soldiers recently sacked for being members of National Action?

    1008:

    Nope. Didn't miss it. I was purely talking about eating them. Not gona do. Nope. Nope. Nope.

    Congealed snot grown in distilled water is still congealed snot.

    And as much as my doctor and others think eating fish is a healthy thing and I go along when they serve it to me ... I think the world needs to get off fish for food. Both to keep from depleting the worlds stocks and due to all the trace chemicals all fish seem to be accumulating.

    And if you talk to me about how it can all be segregated with nets in ocean pens ... I have a bridge.

    1009:

    Andrew S. Mooney @ 977: 1: Circumstantial Evidence is not evidence.

    You're wrong about that.

    Any evidence that is not direct, eyewitness testimony is "circumstantial evidence". Almost all evidence is "circumstantial evidence".

    Example: A person is shot. A witness thereafter sees a suspect running away from the scene with a smoking gun in his hand. The witness did not see the suspect shoot the victim, but the observed facts - the gun seen in the suspect's hand and the suspect running away from the scene are both "circumstantial" evidence by which it can be reasoned that the suspect shot the victim.

    Circumstantial evidence is used in criminal courts to establish guilt or innocence through reasoning.

    Forensic evidence
    Other examples of circumstantial evidence are fingerprint analysis, blood analysis or DNA analysis of the evidence found at the scene of a crime. These types of evidence may strongly point to a certain conclusion when taken into consideration with other facts—but if not directly witnessed by someone when the crime was committed, they are still considered circumstantial.

    >If a fingerprint expert matches the accused's fingerprint to fingerprints found at the crime scene, that's circumstantial evidence.
    >If a ballistics expert can match the striations on the bullet extracted from victim's body with a bullet fired from a gun found in the accused's possession, that's circumstantial evidence.
    >If the accused's fingerprints are found on the gun that was used to shoot the victim, that's circumstantial evidence.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/488508/Evidence_v3.0EXT_clean.pdf

    "Circumstantial evidence allows a conclusion to be drawn from a set of circumstances or information.

    Circumstantial evidence is not necessarily weaker than direct evidence if there are number of circumstances that together can lead the court or a jury to a guilty verdict. R v Exall (1866) states that:

    'One strand of a cord might be insufficient to sustain the weight, but three stranded together may be quite sufficient of strength. Thus, it may be circumstantial evidence – there may be a combination of circumstances no one of which would raise a reasonable conviction, or more than a mere suspicion; but the whole, taken together, may create a strong conclusion of guilty, that is, with as much certainty as human affairs can require or admit of'.

    This means that, even though you may only have circumstantial evidence, if there is enough of it, then altogether, it may be enough to prove guilt.
    (page 10/42)

    1010:

    jrootham @ 984: I am thinking you rather lack credibility on the political front here.

    Which makes him any different from the other lunatics in the asylum in what way?

    1011:

    Ahem.

    Gen. Augusto Pinochet was allowed to fly home to Chile today after Britain dropped extradition proceedings against him and put an end to his 16 months of house arrest in England.

    A Chilean military plane lifted off from Waddington Royal Air Force Base in Lincolnshire at 1:10 p.m., just hours after the decision to free the 84-year-old former Chilean dictator was announced by Home Secretary Jack Straw.

    In letters to ambassadors of the four countries made public today, Mr. Straw argued that the general's declining health had produced a ''memory deficit'' that would have compromised his ability to understand charges and direct his lawyers.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2000/03/03/world/after-16-months-of-house-arrest-pinochet-quits-england.html

    And let us not forget:

    Supporters say Baltasar Garzón, who wants to rattle the ghosts of Spain's past, is the victim of a witch-hunt

    He tried to extradite General Pinochet, ordered the arrest of Osama bin Laden, put notorious members of the Argentinian junta, such as Adolfo Scilingo, behind bars and investigated the mass executions of nearly 150,000 Spanish Republicans under General Franco. But yesterday, in the first of three cases, Spain's crusading high court judge, Baltasar Garzón, went on trial himself.

    Mr Garzón, who is viewed by many as Spain's most courageous legal watchdog and the scourge of bent politicians and drug warlords the world over, faces up to a 17-year suspension from his job in the initial case alone. The hearing, into whether the judge abused his powers, will investigate claims he ordered illegal police recordings of conversations between suspects in a massive corruption case in Valencia, involving high-profile figures from Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's Partido Popular (PP) Party.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/judge-who-arrested-pinochet-now-finds-himself-in-the-dock-6291027.html

    http://opil.ouplaw.com/view/10.1093/law:ildc/1736uk99.case.1/law-ildc-1736uk99

    Let's just say: Power and Money never forget a slight.

    terrorist groupie

    Please do remember that The UK State employs all kinds of "disavowalable assets" to contact all kinds of people who you couldn't formally meet.

    If you're spotting them in Public, it's already been vetoed. In fact, unless you believe in Faeries, it's all very much stage-managed.

    [Which is why this current insanity is insanity].

    ~

    In our Universe, that never happened btw. Pinochet avoided all charges and left, caused a fairly major Spanish / EU spat.

    Your Universe is fucking weird btw.

    1012:

    Note:

    Look up the number of MPs attending the first discussion for two years over Climate Change today. Tories managed about 10, Labour about 30. SNP are off in a snot and so on.

    We'll let you draw your own conclusions from this.

    Brexit: Fuck it, we'll do it live

    Actual Reality: Fuck it, we're not turning up

    Really real Reality (As in, actually reported happenings): Fuck, we're all on the list, aren't we? All fun and games until they start murdering us

    OH, and reference for #937 is host's twitter: Enables efficient and convenient capture, verification and digitalization of customer data

    Poking the Bear, Poking the Eagle, Poking the Lion Capital of Ashoka, Poking Sexy-Many-Armed-Lady.

    Genocide is not cool, peoples

    Trust me: you'd better believe that both sides have already LARPed out this little Game (Hello, China) or you need to explain which jets came from storage and which jets came from actual inventory.

    Weapons Testing

    The real test was how we spotted it was about to happen before it happened, if you know what we mean.

    1013:

    You listened

    It is our sacred duty to witness. It's also a paradox. Chinese Room Games are for Kidz.

    Ze doesn't Know We knew it was you all along That's the last Wild One left Trapped in that Insanity, there's barely anything left

    Black Hole Paradoxes are used to kill Minds.

    1014:

    Heteromeles @ 991: Although to be fair, I don't know that the other nuclear powers would get involved.

    Here is a simulation of the crap cloud from 100 nukes going off in the India-Pakistan area. Looks like a year without a summer perhaps, not an end-Cretaceous doom fest.

    In that regard, from what little the news media are saying, my major concern would be if India thinks they can win the war with Pakistan, and don't deescalate. Pakistan's made noises toward deescalating, now we have to see if India reciprocates or tries to press the advantage.

    Unfortunately, I don't share your confidence that other nuclear powers would not become involved.

    What I'm afraid might happen is Pakistan finding itself on the losing end of a conventional conflict uses tactical nukes on the battlfield in Jammu and Kashmir, which would be followed by nuclear retaliation from India. To deprive India of the ability to retaliate for a Pakistani first strike, there would be strong temptation for Pakistan launch a decapitation strike inside India aimed at bases where Indian nuclear weapons are deployed, the command & control facilities for employing those weapons and at India's civil government. The conflict could rapidly spread beyond Jammu and Kashmir.

    Again, I don't see how it would be at all possible for India to not retaliate in kind if at all possible, and I believe that would bring China into the conflict.

    If China goes in, I don't see the U.S. and/or Russia staying out.

    And if that's the case, does anyone trust Trump not to fuck it up? Especially if North Korea judges that the time has come to launch an attack against South Korea while the U.S. is completely distracted by what's happening on the Indian sub-continent.

    I think there's no chance a nuclear exchange, once started, would be limited to a hundred tactical weapons in Jammu and Kashmir border region between Pakistan and India.

    1015:

    I will meditate on that.

    (FWIW been observing and working on conceptual biases, e.g. loss aversion, and fear, that interfere with things.)

    1016:

    Got me on that one. I was wishing for emoji when I read that.

    1017:

    You've got to remember that the general purpose of nukes is to forestall an invasion. For example, Russia or the US without nukes could theoretically be overrun by the Chinese army, just because there are so many Chinese soldiers. With nukes, if China invades the US or Russia, their homeland goes away as their boots hit the ground. Ditto if Russia invades the US, the US invades Russia, and especially if the nuclear power invaded that can make a long-range enough missile can hit its invader's capitol in retaliation for an invasion.

    Nukes have to work for them to be a credible threat, but they're primarily a threat, to force the other side to de-escalate and not invade. Otherwise, they're fairly useless.

    The problem is when someone forgets this and invades anyway. Now we do have some idiots in charge right now (Trump, May, etc.), but the problem is that when you jump into a nuclear exchange that's not aimed at you, you just guarantee that things will be worse for you. I think even Trump and May would get that with minimal explanation. And that's what happens here. If India and Pakistan exchange nuclear decapitation strikes (and I suspect Pakistan would go for decapitation, since a tactical nuke would be inside their borders and just give them a bigger mess to deal with), then the rest of the world has a humanitarian catastrophe on their hands for the next decade or so, followed by a meaningful opportunity to conquer a lot of territory--unless they launch their nukes, in which case they die in retaliation.

    So basically, there's no reason for any nuclear power, including India and Pakistan, to do anything other than make bold stances and try to out-macho each other. Pakistan's problem is that their air space has been violated repeatedly (cf: the Bin Laden raid), and they've got to deal with that.

    The other scary scenario is when some nuclear button-pusher gets the bright idea that a small nuclear war is preferable to mass migration that will overwhelm their increasingly impoverished country, especially after their petroleum export-based economy gets wiped out by a globalized Green New Deal, or whatever gets our civilization off petroleum and natural gas. They'd claim that the world's better off with a few billion fewer people, especially when those people (who would die quickly and relatively painlessly if nuked, as opposed to starving) are a "despised minority" on the other side of a militarized border. There's just enough logic there to start a war, but not enough to keep the resulting nuclear mess from metastasizing, especially when those hordes of "them" have their own nukes to retaliate with. Then probably the Kiwis inherit the Earth, if anyone survives.

    1018:

    Oh, for sure.

    Our Meditations revolve around the concepts of Evil, Consent and fucking Genocide you pyschotic Apes.

    Oh, and Possibility and Probability.

    In a less het up zone, we've been considering if torture is morally ok or merely required for your modern civilizations to function. Or, you know, you just do it for the fucking money. Sources state that is "Just Business".

    The only question we really have left is always the kicker:

    Are they self-aware of the system they inhabit? Are they cognitively free agents to enact such things? Are they actually HSS? Are they free Agents?

    I'm always reminded of a famous quotation: "We're not slaves!" when we consider the massive fucking Mind-fuck that is your species.

    We don't do hate. We can't process evil.

    You listened

    Who killed the world?

    Genocide is not a fun thing.

    And yet you masturbate to it.

    You broke the Rules

    ~

    Give you a little tip.

    You want to survive? You ask us nicely, again for the 2012 EMP Corona effect and don't fucking pray like bitches that it misses you.

    Your eco-system is 94% entirely fucked and you fucking APES can't even manage a fucking blip revolution without bitching about shit while killing brown people

    And, yes: neither Pak or Ind nukes work anymore. You're fucking welcome you psychotic fucks.

    1019:

    Beeewoooopp Beeewwwoooop

    OMG WHO KNEW 25+ OLD TECH WAS HARD TO HACKZZ.

    ONLY EVERY FUCKING ONE OF YOU CARRYING A PHONE.

    OMG DO YOU MEAN RESONANCE IS A THING AND CAN DAMAGE CIRCUITS?

    WHO IS RUNNING THE SOUND AND LIGHT SPAMMING OF MINDS?

    Absolutely done with this shit.

    You're not clever, you're not fast, you're not funny. You're fucking psychotic little chimp slaves.

    No, really. You should hear what your "Masters" call you. It makes all your shitty online insults look like lovvy-dovvy stuff.

    Oh, wait.

    Your entire civilization is based on this?

    HOOLLLLLLLLY SHIIIIIIIIIIIIT.

    No, really.

    Fight or die.

    We're bored of your shite.

    1020:

    "We're so clever"

    "It's camouflage"

    "Large scale memetic interference in Minds is a thing the Soviets knew how to do 50+ years ago"

    ~

    Problem is.

    Once the mirror breaks, turns out.... you're all just sick fucking psychotic messes.

    AWKWARD

    1021:

    "You Listened"

    We is Stoned Immaculate YT: music, The Doors, 4:14

    ~

    No, really.

    "Come upstairs"

    "Nope, you're a parasite"

    1022:

    OT Alert: Here's a question that I fully expect to not be addressed in Invisible Sun when it comes out.

    A recent article in Nature describes further searches in the Denisovan cave in Siberia. They even suggest that it's possible that full Denisovan skeletons have already been collected - in China, where they've been sitting ignored and miscateloged.

    So. Have any of the expeditions to uninhabited or sparsely inhabited worlds that the ~USA made in the series had a look at the Denisovan cave? Or perhaps had a look at any bones they could find in Flores?

    I have the feeling that we'll never know.

    1023:

    The Corbyn thing is especially bad because no-one is holding the right to the same standard.

    ok, specifically, can you point to any prime minister or leader of the opposition being pilloried in the media and in parliament after having a photo op with a murderer? Protests in the streets are not what I'm talking about, it's "you can't elect them, they like despots". For example the campaign that led to Cameron resigning after he was seen with Obama, or May after meeting bin Salman... neither of which have happened.

    I really can't think of a right (or far right) politician being harassed for hanging out with undesirables. In Australia Dastyari resigned once it became obvious that not only was he bought, but everyone knew has was bought. That's actual corruption, not merely the suggestion that he associated with someone, or invited them to a meeting.

    It would be bleakly amusing if all the "photo with Aung San Suu Kyi" incidents were used to deny politicians credibility, but I can't see anyone even making the attempt.

    1024:

    You can walk from Bejing to Moscow, so maybe the peoples army could do something about Russia (I do not actually think their logistics are up for this) but a conventional war between the US and China would almost certainly turn into a nautical farce where every surface ship that gets within 500 kilometers of the enemy shore gets bombed or missiled to Davy Jones Locker. Carriers are very expensive, anti-ship missiles are cheap. Sure, the carriers have aegis. That will not help if the other side does the math and just launches missiles at you by the hundreds. and you cannot fit an invasion force on a submarine.

    1025:

    Can you THEN prove he killed him?

    Oh come on. I am not sure what standard of proof you want to apply, and I'm actually not really interested (you do appear to want to apply different standards to different people - see below), but I assure you that in countries that have a thing called Rule of Law, courts, including juries, convict people where the prosecution case is a circumstantial one all the time, literally every day. This isn't me expressing some sort of opinion, I'm simply passing on some uncontroversial facts. You're welcome not to believe me, but you aren't making your case any stronger with this childishness.

    As in, is Assange a categorical, according to the dictionary, rapist? Stupid, regrettable, categorical bad sex, that you regret almost immediately afterwards, yes, but is that rape?

    That isn't up to me, and it definitely isn't up to you. In this case it is up to the law of Sweden as established by the Swedish people via their legislature. Swedish police apparently believe he has a case to answer. This is also something that happens when there is Rule of Law. Assange has elected not to face his accusers on this matter, which as others have noted presents as "acting guilty".

    That isn't a great trivialisation of rape, sunshine.

    That's sure what it looks like to me.

    It emphasises that when it occurs it is a crime. It often involves violent assault and injury. This case is so vague that it is laughable. Not "consenually" using a condom when having sex is not rape, which is what appears to have what has occurred here. He seems to have been either drunk, forgetful or just plain lazy, but, well, is that literally, actually, and according to the dictionary, an act of rape?

    You're seeking to apply your own definitions in a context where all that matters is the legal definition in Sweden, and what police believe they are obliged to do in response to a complaint.

    If so, your definition of sex literally includes a risk assesment, if not, you are cheapening something and you deserve to be killed by a group of feminists. Yes? Sunshine?

    No idea what you're on about here, but see above about laws and Sweden. I'm not "defining" anything myself here, you on the other hand seem to want to bring your own definitions for a range of things.

    There is a broader agenda here in respect to why other people want Assange in prison, it would help it you tried to educate yourself as to what that agenda is, instead of accusing me of being a rape apologist.

    Okay, so here is the thing - I was not making any such accusation, though you seem to be making your own case against yourself in these lines here [Note to mods]. You do seem to be keen to dispose of the value of the complainants own versions of events, disrespectful of Swedish law and intent on making your own assessment on whether Assange has a case to answer. Really that is not for you or I to assess. If there are complains against him, they should be investigated through due process; to say otherwise would be to say that the law should not apply to him. The notion that "education" in some conspiracy theory changes these material facts is laughable. Keep your blue pills, mate. Go enjoy yourself.

    1026:

    David L Neither Oyster nor Mussels are FISH - they aren't even vertebrate ... they are Molluscs.

    JBS @ 1010 Actually, both he & EC are - essentially - making the claim that: "Because I don't support Corbyn in every last detail, I MUST BE a nasty right wing Fascist, evil, out, send to the gulag!"

    It has been said that he current UK government is the possibly worst in living memory. (I might disagree - Eden’s of 1955-7 anyone? ) My dislike of some in May’s cabinet has gone to revulsion ( like Grayling ). The mean-ness, institutional xenophobia & under-funding of public services is an ongoing & avoidable. Even I would pay to have a sensible, social democratic government tomorrow, though unlikely on my very modest pension. And, yet I & many others (I think) have a very very negative view of J. Corbyn. He simply hasn’t demonstrated the leadership qualities needed to unite his parliamentary party, let alone a winning margin of the country at large. He is completely failing to hold the government to account. His PMQs are dire. Liebour should be wiping the floor with May’s lot & yet they are at least a couple of points behind in most (all?) polls. He doesn’t like or trust the media – ok – but - he manages to come across as very twitchy & sometimes worse. That eye-rolling thing says something about the man: as do the flashes of anger when contradicted or challenged. It’s more frequent with female journalists. He’s done an appalling job on the antisemitism problem. It’s there, it’s real, it’s vile & he appears to be brushing it under the carpet. Also it’s really worrying & horribly reminiscent of the ultra-Brexit right in their intolerance & rantings … are the Corby acolytes who are labelling long-time Liebour members as traitors, scum, worse than tories etc. If your faction of the party is telling others in the party to “f*ck off” - literally - then how do you expect the electorate to perceive you? Get a grip, morons. When it comes to internecine warfare Liebour is looking as bad, or possibly even worse than the Tories. He’s authoritarian politically &, seemingly, by temperament. The ability of a politician to defy his party whip hundreds of times as a backbencher & then demand total loyalty as leader should not be surprising but it still smells, very strongly of hypocrisy. I really, really don’t care for his brand of Trotsky/Bennite so-called “socialism” but that’s a matter of opinion – you know mine. I THINK I am now a social democrat. Thus, I have a negative opinion of the him, based on observation (& not the ‘biased media’ or other conspiracy). Oh & two other things, it appears that he’s taken money from Press TV, an “Iranian” state broadcaster. I’d love to visit Persia, I hear the people there are incredibly hospitable & it is steeped in history, but their government harasses, imprisons & executes people for their sexual orientation. He has a nasty habit of appearing to cuddle up to some v unpleasant terrorists & tyrants.

    Normally-pretentious @ 1012 Look up the number of MPs attending the first discussion for two years over Climate Change today. Tories managed about 10, Labour about 30. SNP are off in a snot and so on. We'll let you draw your own conclusions from this. Thanks for that ... actually, as regards the two main "English" parties, not too bad, especially since there are "deniers" in the tories. As for the SNP, well, that confirms my opinion of them - again.

    1027:

    I just had a thought: the opposite of incels are the "involuntarily non-celibate". Perhaps that's an easier term for some to cope with than having to accept that if someone's been raped, there's a rapist. Instead we have the "causal agent in an involuntarily noncelibacy episode".

    1028:

    That mode of dodging agency is interesting because it’d so familiar. Like the quote from O.J. Simpson from his court case where he said “We were having an argument and it got violent” - that is, there’s a tendency for perpetrators and their defenders to deny their agency through their language. Usually the defenders only dodge agency on behalf of the perpetrator, but it is probably habit forming, because it’s an attractively lazy way to write. I see a lot of it in the bad business writing (yes I realise that’s a tautology) I am swimming in every day.

    One of Mr Mooney’s paragraphs above seems a little odd and is awkward to read. The reason is that the agent for the entire paragraph (actually, via a pronoun, the subject of the verb in most of the sentences in it) is honest-to-dog one of his own previous statements. It’s like he’s constructed that deliberately to reify the statement and remove his own agency in making it. It’s pretty transparent, but if that reification is part of the wall of the bubble it might not be visible from inside.

    Anyhoo, it’s worth noting that the majority of the involuntarily non-celibate are women, and the likelihood to find oneself assigned to this category increases the closer to the social margins one finds oneself (whatever gender). And actually there’s my quibble with your definition of the causal agent. I would describe this as the casual agent who “assigns someone to the category of the involuntarily non-celibate”. Because there’s still an act, it is reduced to an act of assignment. Very popular in war, and this rendering even leaves the higher-level matter of policy in war more transparent, so it’s even productive.

    1029:

    Not "consenually" using a condom when having sex is not rape,

    Your definition of "rape" is dangerously out of date.

    Note that the definition of "rape" changes over time. For example, until 1992, English law didn't permit a man to be charged with raping a woman, even violently and in the presence of witnesses, if they happened to have signed a piece of paper called a "marriage license" prior to the event. Go back further, to the 18th century, and "rape" was basically the term for theft of chattel.

    (I dislike the word "rape" — and the word "murder" — because they're both common law hang-overs: we'd be able to talk about this a lot more clearly if we had more specific terms like "penetrative sexual assault", "penetrative sex without consent", and "intentional homicide" or "unintentional homicide". /digression)

    In modern usage, rape has come to mean: sexual interactions in which one partner does not or cannot freely consent. Violence is not necessary: intimidation is sufficient, just as intimidation is sufficient to make an interaction qualify as assault, if it puts one of the participants in fear of violence.

    As a friend of mine who is a barrister puts it, the difficult thing about rape charges is that the vast majority of acts of sexual intercourse are happy and joyous, including rough sex that could, to an external eye, look indistinguishable from violent rape — the distinction revolves entirely about coercion and consent, which is why if you know any BDSMers you'll know they tend to be very pernickety about consent and safewords.

    So yes, doing something to your partner to which they didn't consent, or in the knowledge that they would say "hell, no!" if you asked first, falls within the meaning of this charge in many jurisdictions—and you may need to update your internal "common sense" rules to factor this into account, lest you wind up in serious trouble.

    1030:

    OT Alert: Here's a question that I fully expect to not be addressed in Invisible Sun when it comes out.

    Not OT, but it ain't going to be addressed in the current series (if ever): remember, I pitched it and sold it in 2013?

    1031:

    Thank you for that reminder.

    I think it was in NZ someone did a survey of lawyers a year or two ago and the overwhelming consensus was that they would suggest a family member who was raped not involve the legal system. Some in the legal system saw that as confirmation that everything is working correctly*, others saw it as an indictment of a failed system. Sadly the search results are dominated by a sexual harassment survey after the Russel Mcveigh culture controversy and I can't find the report I am thinking of.

    Meanwhile in Australia we see many powerful people rushing to defend a convicted pedophile... https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/01/the-inconsistencies-of-george-pells-defenders-just-displays-their-power

    1032:

    So yes, doing something to your partner to which they didn't consent, or in the knowledge that they would say "hell, no!" if you asked first, falls within the meaning of this charge in many jurisdictions—and you may need to update your internal "common sense" rules to factor this into account, lest you wind up in serious trouble.

    Also, I've really heard talk about consent outside BDSM and related circles only start during the last 10-15 years. It was implicitly quite clear to me (though I've made mistakes regarding it) but no authority in my childhood or youth did talk about consent in clear terms. It's very good that it's used now and I've been trying to teach it to my children, and from what I gather it's talked about in school and kindergarten, too.

    I think this is one of the problems - if you don't really grok the whole "consent" thing, it's hard to use that in regard to what should be considered sexual assault and related things. (On a related note, rape in marriage was only forbidden in Finland in 1994.)

    1033:

    The other scary scenario is...

    For me, the scary scenario is when each side decides to disperse its strategic deterrent out of its primary bases, to keep it intact in the face of any surprise attack. You now have weapons fitted with instant sunshine, trundling around the countryside with their rockets; bombers moved to dispersal airfields; submarines put to sea.

    There will be command and control procedures in place, and security procedures, but we don't really know how mature or robust they are. More to the point, there's the possibility of radicalisation - can an extremist trigger a launch? What is the risk of extremists seizing a warhead?

    I came across several interesting articles on the subject; these two are recent, well-written, and downright prescient:

    https://warontherocks.com/2019/01/angles-and-dangles-arihant-and-the-dilemma-of-indias-undersea-nuclear-weapons/

    https://www.vox.com/2018/4/2/17096566/pakistan-india-nuclear-war-submarine-enemies

    1034:

    You do realise that you're coming across as that asshole who believes that rape only happens at knifepoint in dark alleyways, and is mostly the fault of the woman for putting herself in a dangerous situation?

    Don't be that asshole.

    1035:

    Neither Oyster nor Mussels are FISH - they aren't even vertebrate ... they are Molluscs.

    Fine. Food from the ocean then.

    1036:

    Agreed Completely.

    1037:

    Don't be that asshole.

    That was my point (although I generally try not to call commenters assholes: I figure an explanation of my reasoning is much better than random-ish insults).

    1038:

    "If we end up in a no-deal situation, my money is on the UK itself not surviving for many more years in its current political form."

    IMHO (as a Yank observing from the outside), it's going to be a horrible situation:

    A competently-run Brexit, taking several years, would cause a recession. This is going to be a no-deal Brexit, which means an economic crash.

    It will also be run quite incompetently, because the only thing that Brexiters know how to do is to lie. The Tories clearly know only how to lie and loot. Every time that Brexiters have encountered truth, either the Brexiters lose or truth loses.

    This means that the UK will get an economic crash with a proto-fascist, billionaire-backed Tory government which has already shifted to hardcore blaming of liberals and Furriners. Their choice is to own it or blame others. In that they'll be like the Republicans in the USA, who abandoned 'a chicken in every pot' for 'the browns and blacks will suffer' (i.e., negative sum politics).

    Throw in the likely expulsion (after imprisonment and torture) of a few million EU citizens residing in the UK, and the reprisal expulsion of a million + UK citizens resident in the EU, and living in Likud Israel might look - well, marginally less bad.

    1039:

    Yes, but the series is set in 2020. They've made the discoveries since!

    Joking aside, looking forward to reading it.

    1040:

    If anyone in the U.K. wants to get out, you're welcome to couch space at my house. IMHO you guys are in for a world of hurt!

    Not joking at all! For those of you who are worried about Trump, it's becoming increasingly likely the dude is going down and taking substantial parts of the Republican establishment with him.

    1041:

    Again, evidence please.

    He was arrested in OCtober 1991 on 24 hacking charges, in December 1996, he plead guilty to them, and received a fine.

    Here's a link that talks about it (amongst other things): The Australian newspaper article on Julian Assange

    1042:

    (Damn, I was sure I hit preview...)

    Anyway, being convicted of a felony means he's a criminal, he may have paid a fine rather than doing porridge, but he's still a crim.

    1043:

    "Throw in the likely expulsion (after imprisonment and torture) of a few million EU citizens residing in the UK, ...."

    Extremely unlikely, actually, even win the worst plausible scenario. Expulsion, yes, and temporary imprisonment for those who do not leave when pushed, but torture would be more-or-less limited to asylum seekers and those accused of terrorism. Possibly including a large and random selection of British Muslims, of course. And I don't expect even that, unless people considerably worse than Grease-Smug get into power.

    Yes, it WILL be as bad, but almost certainly not in that way. Almost all of our industry (in the wide sense) has been eliminated or sold off, but we are critical dependent on imports for essentials ( Almost all of our industry (in the wide sense) has been eliminated or sold off.including food and fuel). The past 30 years have meant that our foreign income is dependent on money laundering and gambling with other people's money ('financial services'), and being a cheap base for foreign companies to operate within the EU. And we are in the process of losing those. As I have posted, our government has ALREADY said that it wants to sign up to a USA trade deal, on the USA's terms, which would cripple any chance to rebuild.

    And, of course, human rights and civil liberties would be trampled on.

    1044:

    You were significantly more eloquent than I, and I was trying hard to keep the insult soft and to some extent justified. Hope I didn't step too far over the boundaries.

    (There were a couple of responses I drafted that could well have earned at least an official yellow card. Unfortunately, for very personal reasons, this is a trigger-laden topic for me.)

    1045:

    Re: 'Trump, it's becoming increasingly likely the dude is going down and taking substantial parts of the Republican establishment with him.'

    Hmmm ...nice scenario... except that DT's a sine qua non slimeball protected by an oily petro-friendly party at the electorate level and a right-leaning SCOTUS at the legal/judicial level. It's going to be a long, tough slog.

    1046:

    Interesting thought. Unfortunately, my reaction is that an incel is an instance of the opposite waiting only for an opportunity.

    1047:

    "Dodging agency"... in real life, often, it's not dodging, it's what happens.

    Example: around 1981 I was empaneled on a criminal case in Philly. No, nothing exciting whatever, all sad and tawdry.

    He had an argument on the street with his ex-girlfriend. She went back to her apt (actually, just a curtain across the top of the 3rd floor stairs), and he followed her up. They argued, something happened, and she fell against the radiator and IIRC hit her head. Bleeding, he got her downstairs, over the bridge (rr bridge on the street) to his mom's house. Mom and sis saw them, chased him off, and patched her up.

    Two of the four charges were "criminal trespass" and "burglary". Now, as the judge explained, burglary is NOT what any of you think: it's "criminal tresspass WITH THE INTENT to commit a felony" (of any kind, not just theft).

    We wound up deciding that he was guilty of the former, but not the latter, because we thought that he had not gone up there to beat her, but to argue, and maybe win her back (fat chance).

    A lot of cases, the violence goes far beyond what anyone was thinking, autonomic responses, I guess.

    This is not to excuse the real cases, but just to note a lot of the ordinary is just that, not intended originally.

    1048:

    Nice phrasing there - "outside the BDSM community". Explicit consent (and the opposite of "STOP FOR REAL" (aka "SAFEWORD!")) had been around for apparently a long time when my late wife and I first read the asb FAQ around '92.

    1049:

    "Neither Oyster nor Mussels are FISH"... I'm sorry, flash from the old comic strip Pogo: "A whale's not a fish, it's enamel!"

    1050:

    Well, there's four things to think about:

  • Pelosi's strategy. I don't like her stand on climate change or progressivism, but she's a trench fighter. She's not pushing for impeachment, primarily (I assume) because a big showy impeachment would get blocked by the Senate. Instead, I think she's setting out to ruin the Trump family financially and possibly put some of them in jail in ways that can't be forgiven by President Pence.

  • Speaking of impeachment, there are two Trump cards: --McConnell and the Republicans in the Senate, --President Pence issuing the pardon.

  • Trump's always used the BBS strategy: bullshit, bully, and settle (or sometimes bully, bullshit, and settle). My presumption is that if he gets boxed into a corner by the Mueller investigation, the settlement is that he'll resign and be pardoned by Pence.

  • We don't want Trump to have a second term. If the choice is that we make a show of attempting to impeach Trump in the next 18 months or trash him and that party of his in the voting booth, then imprison his family on state and federal charges afterwards, I think that's an even better outcome. After all, impeachment merely removes him from office. It doesn't throw him in prison, and he can be pardoned by his handpicked successor. I don't think a Democratic president will pardon Trump if he's convicted after leaving office.

  • 1051:

    Those expeditions are looking for exploitable resources and immediate threats. I don’t think they’ll be doing any paleontology.

    On the other hand I’d be interested in the statistics of what sorts of worlds they find. How many worlds with no hominins? How many with HSS Neolithic hunter-gatherers? How many with Australopithecus living the Paleolithic life? How many with Denisovians but no HSS? How many with Neanderthals with a centuries-old global low-population high-tech sustainable civilization?

    Whoops, wrong series. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Neanderthal_Parallax

    1052:

    Heteromeles @ 1050 BUT ... POTUS PENCE ? Worse, much worse than the DT, unless they are both comprehensively trashed in 2020 & what's the guarantee of that, unlss you can bring both of them down in, say August 2020?

    1053:

    The fun part about Russia is the Far East. My limited understanding of Russian history is that Imperial Russia didn't have a big presence on the Russian Pacific Coast until the late 19th Century. It was the "wild east" of ginseng and sable hunters and fishers for freshwater pearl mussels (!). Many of these people were tribesmen, but many others were Han Chinese, Manchurian Chinese, or Korean wetbacks (who sneaked illegally across the Yalu or Tumen Rivers).

    There's some neat accounts of early Russian explorers in their newly claimed lands, when Vladivostok was a small fishing village, and I was lucky to read a translation of one of these.

    Getting back to modern geopolitics, While I don't think many in the US know much about the history of eastern Siberia, I'm quite sure that the Chinese and Russians do. If I understand correctly, Chinese have gone north for far longer than Russians have gone east, and there's still a substantial Chinese and (North) Korean presence in the area. If Russia has trouble defending its Siberian borders, I have a pretty good guess what will happen next, especially if nukes get taken out of the situation.

    1054:

    And thanks for the information about their nuclear submarine "fleets." I suddenly feel ever so much safer...

    1055:

    Now you're getting the picture, Greg. We've seen no good evidence of a case to impeach Pence.

    1056:

    Last month, the incoming AG of NY state said, in so many words, that she was going after Trump with all she had.

    Be interesting if he's indicted in state court....

    1057:

    He was head of the transition team, and he knew about Flynn. I think it was Rep. Cummings who sent him the warning, and Cummings has the delivery receipt.

    The real question, as I read earlier, is just how many other GOP is he taking down with him... along with, as I've been saying well over a year, a good chunk of international money laundering.

    1058:

    The trouble, Stross, is that you and DavetheProc apparently haven't read the rest of the exchange and don't appear to be considering the context of my remarks. The broader issue is that this guy is being thrown in jail upon a pretext. An unused condom: He will be hauled off to some non-nice prison in Arizona to be quietly murdered by anyone who fancies it. Please pay no attention to his leaking of huge quantities of incriminating documents.

    Well done for defending this action. I don't even like Assange, but unlike you I will defend him upon the grounds of the public interest: Try talking to your Barrister friend in regards to that incongruity.

    As it stands, you're trying to defend a white woman against a stereotypical bullying white male and his lack of Proper Condom Use, and yet the whole thing seems like a misunderstanding, being gaslighted up into a rape case by people with ulterior motives.

    Davetheproc: "Sex you regret," almost immediately, does exist. Women are not always victims, except of course, in your universe where they are always victims and can declare themselves as such at any time. I inhabit a universe where women are grown adults.

    1059:

    Yeah - I know explicit consent and safewords have been a staple with the BDSM people for a long time. I'm young enough that I got on the Usenet only after the Eternal September started, and the stuff that was going around in local BBSes wasn't always that good, really.

    I still have to occasionally explain safewords and consent to people younger than me. Usually after some rape "jokes" which kind of seem to be related to BDSM for too many people.

    1060:

    It was the "wild east" of ginseng and sable hunters and fishers for freshwater pearl mussels (!). Russian Empire power was pretty significant on these territories despite being remote and having harsh climate, one of the reasons they were kept so well within borders is that the climate is not vastly different from many territories closer to the capital. That doesn't compare to power of the other contenders, though, like Japanese and China, and the government has always been keen on keeping the firm grip on this region. Most people do not realize that it is actually a bit more developed in general than stereotype goes - the population of Siberia is equal to that of Canada. For one, they host most powerful electric stations in the country.

    This, however, didn't prevent SOME of the Wild Wes stereotypes to stick, I imagine that there are conventions that aren't widely used in European part of the country, and I've heard some wild stories about what's been happening in the 90-s here.

    If I understand correctly, Chinese have gone north for far longer than Russians have gone east, and there's still a substantial Chinese and (North) Korean presence in the area. Not really the case, you forgot about Mongolian influence - they may be out of game for good, but they still have their lands. The correct understanding would be the presence of multiple indigenous ethnicities native to this regions - it maybe small but it is persistent, because of the climate of the region.

    1061:

    Thank you so much for taking extreme stereotypes, that lots of people are killed in US jails all the time.

    They may not be nice... hell, I know how nasty, say, the Brevard Co. Florida jail is, given I knew someone who was in it 15 years ago, but, from what I know, they aren't what Faux News would lead you to think.

    1062:

    Andrew, I agree that the in the Assange case specifically the rape/sexual abuse charges seem rather suspicious, and that if I had all the information (which neither of us has) I might take very seriously the idea that the case is pretextual. The sequence of events in which Assange first annoys a major government, then after that major government becomes annoyed someone claims he had raped them at some time previous to that major government becoming annoyed... this is very suspicious.

    However, the language you used was not that of someone who believes, as I do, that it is inappropriate to go bareback when you have promised not to do so, or otherwise break the agreements you have made which were a condition of having sex, all of which are (or should be) criminal behaviours.

    It is possible to make the distinction between these two issues, as I believe I have demonstrated above.

    1063:

    He’s already in this-is-true-because-I-say territory, including this-is-more-true-because-it-is-bold, so suggesting more discrimination regarding information sources is kind of moot.

    1064:

    I don’t think that is entirely the correct sequence of events, however. The complainants made their statements before the activity that raised the level of notereity, it is just that prosecutors, faced with a challenging case to make, doubled down (as I’d like to think most people would regard is appropriate) when that case suddenly because much higher profile than when they took it on.

    There are serious articles that give Assange considerable benefit of the doubt, but still reach this conclusion when you take the complainants and the Swedish authorities perspectives into account. Remembering also that we’re not talking about some dictatorship, but rather a high functioning democracy with strong and ancient legal institutions.

    1065:

    Agreed on the modern circumstances. What I think you're blurring is the history.

    My limited understanding is from Across the Ussuri Kray: Travels in the Sikhote-Aline Mountains, which is a translation of the unexpurgated version of Vladimir Arsenyev's book (По Уссурийскому краю (Дерсу Узала). Путешествие в горную область "Сихотэ-Алинь"). He was in the Ussuri Kray region north to Vladivostok, mapping the area for the Russian Army. In 1902 and 1906.

    Have you read it? You might want to, if not. Arsenyev describes a region that was mostly not settled, and a lot (most?) of the people he ran into were Han Chinese or Korean. I'd suggest not confusing Mongolians and Manchus in this area, as the Qing dynasty (ended 1910) was Manchu, and the part of Manchuria adjacent to Primorskye had a special status within Qing China (google "Willow Palisade") that's not worth going into here.

    Certainly the Primorskyi Krai is well settled by modern Russia. My point is that this is recent history, and as a settlement, it's younger than, say, California, which is also very recently terraformed (160 years old).

    I predict this will matter rather more as the climate changes and southern China becomes rather less habitable. If I'm looking at national borders where there could be an invasion and a war in the 21st Century, this is one of them, although it is not currently a problem to my knowledge. The comparatively shallow history of Russia in the region would presumably be the excuse for any Chinese attempts to settle it.

    1066:

    Re: '... if he's indicted in state court'

    Ahh, yes! Then there's the entire range of tax levying governments. Wonder if he also stiffed all the private schools his kids attended? He's already been shown to stiff everyone who went to his 'university'.

    OOC - Is there a limit on the number of charges or times that a POTUS can pardon someone? Pardoning in perpetuity sends a seriously wrong message --- almost as bad as pardoning treason.

    1067:

    In today's publishing news, one of the world's largest university systems walked away from negotiations with the world's largest vanity publisher, all over open access. Read about it here or here.

    1068:

    Timing is everything: I note that Assange got complained about after a public speaking event in Sweden, not back home in Australia. In 2011 Assange was riding high and doing a lot of touring, an activity which might appear to offer plenty of opportunities for no-strings sex to someone that way inclined. Plenty of scope to do Unwise Things, in other words.

    Then when the shit hit the fan and his notoriety turned global, perhaps there was plenty of scope for a couple of women who had bad experiences at his hands to figure it was payback time.

    (Put it another way: no wikileaks-notoriety, no foreign travel: no foreign junkets, no casual sex with foreigners: no regrettable sex, nothing to complain about: nor, under such circumstances, any desire by the US government to extradite him.)

    As I've said before, I don't believe in most conspiracy theories. Cover-ups, yes: and independent pursuit of shared objectives leading to participants cooperating. I think that the Assange rape accusations coming on top of the US extradition demands were, at best, an example of the latter: people who wanted Assange under interrogation in a black site would have happily settled for seeing him banged up in a Swedish jail on rape charges as a second-best solution. "Who will rid me of this turbulent priest?" Indeed.

    1069:
    As a friend of mine who is a barrister puts it, the difficult thing about rape charges is that the vast majority of acts of sexual intercourse are happy and joyous, including rough sex that could, to an external eye, look indistinguishable from violent rape — the distinction revolves entirely about coercion and consent, which is why if you know any BDSMers you'll know they tend to be very pernickety about consent and safewords.

    Actually I think human social interaction could need more safewords, generally, actually a lot more of them. But that's another matter.

    Concerning sexual transgressions, quite a few of them involve alcohol and other drugs in both parties involved[1]. It's hard to generalize, though, benzodiazepines usually don't make for consenting sex, but I know some people on them for panic disorders. There might be similar problems with other psychoactive.

    You could say sex is a bad idea when being in a psychological state necessitating said drugs, and I would agree in some cases. In others, not so much.

    OK, sorry for the digression, original text was somewhat longer, today was one of those days I wonder if I'm not actually bipolar, my associative network was in overdrive. Might be me getting out of my SAD and overshooting somewhat, might be the new antihypertensive, might be the stress realizing you already know somebody at work. He seems quite good at the job, but then, he was always good at multitasking. 3 female friends of mine can testify...

    [1] I have no idea why I thought about that one, of course...

    1070:

    In other news, wikisurfing today (it started with me looking into Bambi)...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archduchess_Louise_of_Austria

    Weird case...

    1071:

    You could say sex is a bad idea when being in a psychological state necessitating said drugs...

    ... and very soon we're having a discussion about whether disabled people are allowed to have sex, and just how disabled someone has to be before they're not allowed to be sexual at all and oh boy isn't this a slippery slope (and not in a fun way).

    It's a really complex topic, and it shades right up into commonly chosen temporary inabilities... if missing a night's sleep damages your mental ability to the same degree a couple of units of alcohol does, should (new) parents be considered incapable of consenting to sex :)

    1072:

    Is there a limit on the number of charges or times that a POTUS can pardon someone?

    A statutory limit on Federal convictions? Not that I know of. The 25th Amendment, the power of Congress to impeach and the quadrennial elections are such indirect remedies as exist.

    As an aside, AFAIK Presidential pardons are absolute and irreversible, though a sufficiently motivated DoJ could probably cook up new charges under a new Administration.

    1073:

    Actually the critical point is that Presidential pardon power is only for federal crimes. That's why Mueller's group is working so closely with the Southern District of New York (a state prosecutor) and other state jurisdictions, to make sure that whoever's in the Oval Office can't pardon their friends for whatever.

    The one limitation is that it's unclear whether anyone can indict or convict a sitting president for anything. Once their behind is out of that office though, they're potentially fair game like any other citizen of their stature.

    1075:

    Antisemitism: I'm on the other side of the Atlantic, US. From that outside-the-UK perspective, it definitely seems like there's been a sharp uptick in antisemitism in the UK, or alternatively has roiled beneath the surface for quite some time. My short question is, Why? Especially if it's a true increase, what are the social factors feeding into this trend?

    I get the rise in racism on my side of the ocean-- we have a President that tacitly (and no so tacitly) sanctions it and foments those the very social faults that exacerbate it. But what's the prime mover on this in the UK?

    1076:

    I think you're in the right neighborhood on this, but from where we sit there's probably no way to tell for sure what happened. I was more concerned with addressing Damien's language than anything else.

    1077:

    You're correct about the Feds sharing data with New York State's District Attorney's. However, the SDNY is part of the DOJ, not part of New York. I'm not sure what their New York State counterparts are called.

    1078:

    Not clear my language is something egregious to require some sort of rebuttal, as I noted above my understanding of the sequence of events differs from yours (aligns with Charlie’s). Mooney’s comments have been vile, and I’ve mostly been addressing the wilder content there. To recap: Sweden gets to enforce its own laws and as Thomas points out has form for sticking to due process and not yielding to extradition requests for political offences. There’s no reason to believe Assange would be imprisoned in Sweden, that seems disproportionate and I don’t think anyone suggested he should be. The whole thing hinged around the rather basic point that if he had a case to answer it is the Swedish legal system’s job to assess that and determine what the outcome should be.

    I don’t hate Assange, I don’t think he should be in prison, but I don’t find him especially impressive and I don’t think this US connection should exempt him from facing the consequences of his actions in another country, where as noted above he was on a speaking tour. My understanding is at least one of the complainants is significantly better known in Sweden than he could ever become, that the suggestion this is some sort of attempt to gain hand-me-down notoriety in her case at least is bollocks, and there are plenty of reasons to understand his behaviour as being poor enough that some police attention isn’t a great surprise or unwarranted.

    But the comedy is very real. At the current stage Assange complains that he is being oppressed because the Ecuadorian government wants to make him look after his own cat as a contingent requirement for internet access.

    1079:

    Sorry, I must have lost track of the conversation. I meant "Mooney's language," not "Damien's language." Many apologies.

    1080:

    No worries! I was a little confused, but that makes sense.

    There’s a lot of quite dark irony in the whole Assange situation, and there’s a sort of ideology of the panopticon that becomes comedy when its missionaries’ own private lives come to world attention, and they insist on special treatment.

    1081:

    To be fair, if 2 units of alcohol (ie 200ml of wine, or 550[ish]ml of beer) is enough to remove capacity, and that means someone who drank that much cannot give consent, then a huge proportion of peoples’ sex lives become police matters.

    Singer gets into trouble on this topic probably more frequently than on other topics, since there are people who have very strong views on both sides of any question about capacity. It’s interesting because you would expect Singer’s stance to be primarily utilitarian, but nonetheless it’s pretty well aligned to a deontological position on the primacy of individual rights and freedom,. His critics, in contrast, seem to be coming from something more like a prescriptive moral code position, aligned to religion or secular equivalents thereof.

    I don’t necessarily subscribe to Singer’s position on everything, but I admit I’m a fan. I liked his basic explanation about why he favours utilitarianism - basically that he sees the usual objections as not being especially strong, I find I agree there are some pretty straightforward arguments that put them aside pretty effectively. Most of us come up with these naturally, yet we still seem to have a sort of artificial continuum ... probably because we like to have continua, which is why we even had Structuralism in the first place.

    1082:

    I have to admit to being more a situational ethics fan on that particular topic. It's entirely possible for someone who is legless drunk to consent to sex, and entirely possible for someone to be taken advantage of after one drink. What matters is what both (et al :) parties think afterwards. To a degree that's utilitarian, but it also is (IMO) appropriately floppy.

    I think it is necessary and reasonable that this means that if someone is affected by drugs or other temporary, voluntary impediments to clear thinking, that obtaining consent from them is difficult. That accurately reflects the reality.

    Also, it's not just BDSM people that have been talking about sexual consent for a long time. Feminists and anarchists both predate and have informed BDSM theory and practice of consent, and not just around sex. It is interesting at times hearing odd versions of common ideas from each community in another, and fun to reflect those ideas back at people but related to a different context that also applies to their lives. Especially any of them that have kids... adults are frequently fucking atrocious about getting consent from kids (just in general, not sexual consent).

    I've had someone get drunk as part of a plan to seduce me. That didn't work, but there's no question that if I had had sex with her it would have been consensual. Even if, as seemed very likely to me at the time, she did not enjoy the sex. She was quite ashamed of herself afterwards. So IME... yes, very drunk people can consent to sex.

    I've also seen a similar pattern with people saying "oh I'm so drunk, so very, very drunk, I'm so drunk I'd have sex with anyone..." I think that's the most off-putting pick up line imaginable, but apparently it works. And the person saying it often not very drunk at all. Just insecure or something. {eyeroll}

    I put those up as examples because I assume that everyone is way too familiar with the "drugging someone is the same as asking" scenarios so we don't need to discuss them. Just for the record... if someone can't consent, that's not consent. Also, {eyeroll}.

    1083:

    In terms of formal philosophical ethics, I have yet to read anyone I definitely agree with. Too many try to have "one rule to bind them all" and that is IMO unreasonable. Not just the Dworkin-McKinnon axis of insanity types, but the whole bunch. Even a lot of the feminist and anarchist ones (and some of the BDSM). Generally on the basis that there are too many situations where their proposed system of ethics falls apart.

    A key question I always ask is: does this analysis admit that a man can refuse consent to a woman?

    You would be disturbed at how often the answer is "no, having a penis means you have consented to sex". Then when you say "so, a very unattractive older woman wants to have sex with a just-barely-age-of-consent man" or some similar scenario and they suddenly start thinking about it and go "well, ok, but that's very unusual" or something equally nonsensical. The kickback from many, often women and especially feminists, can be shockingly harsh. Especially in response to "so have you always obtained explicit consent before having sex with a man?"... because "oh but I would never" often becomes "urk I often don't oh shit fuckfuckfuck" when they start thinking about it.

    The other really common issue arises inside relationships where everyone agrees that they are in a general state of consent unless obviously otherwise. It's a necessary precondition to casual affection let alone the various "surprise sex" antics that a lot of people get up to. Or just the simple waking up and asking "did we have sex in the night or was that a dream?"

    A nasty but all to often necessary problem with philosophers is the treatment of prostitution, and how that is distinguished from other work on the one hand, and other sex on the other (and non-monetary reward on the gripping hand). There is far too much bullshit of the form "if the employee suffers any harm, or does not enjoy their work, then it is immoral/unethical", and also "someone who marries for financial security is not a prostitute".

    FWIW now I'm thinking I should read more Singer (on sex, but also in general). It's been a while.

    1084:
    It’s interesting because you would expect Singer’s stance to be primarily utilitarian, but nonetheless it’s pretty well aligned to a deontological position on the primacy of individual rights and freedom

    I tried to start a flame war on a German blog of a Dawkins' fanboy[1] lately by pointing out Singer is not that far removed from the Roman Catholic position on abortion - a fetus is "a living human being". He just uses a different logic and some different axiomes from there, so he arrives at a different conclusion, of course.

    He's not alone there, I have a friend who was and most likely is an agnostic and practicing atheist like me and is also quite empathic[2]. So when she had to have an abortion she experienced some ethical dissonance and reacted by a distancing response, e.g. rallying against late-term abortion. Memory is hazy for this period, and I only read about that study a few years ago, but IIRC I realized the mechanism back then because I knew it from myself.

    Meeting her ex-boyfriend (not the father, BTW) a few days back at work brings back more details, of course. No idea why I have to mention we all had a love-hate-relationship with Hermann Hesse back then, might be your username. ;)

    [1] Cornelius tries to emulate both the good and the bad sides of our favourite Dick...

    [2] I found it quite amusing when she wrote she adopted two kittens from a shelter. That's most likely not for me though, I suspect I'm allergic to cat hair. :(

    1085:

    Hm, I have lately come to adopt Feyerabend's epistemological anarchism to ethics. With the caveat that "human nature"(whatever that is) might keep it somewhat in check.

    If you excuse me, me remembering the guy I was 14 years ago and Bicycle Day approaching makes for some strange feelings. No I never did acid. And if I talk about it in this city, people will think it's because we're the official cycling capital of Germany. Which makes for the imp of the perverse suggeting some trolling with the local Christian Democratic - Green coalition administration...

    1086:

    Hmm, I read The Glass Bead Game and Siddhartha* when I was a teenager but I don’t think I ever read Demian or Steppenwolf. I’ve long intended to re-read the first two and then read the second two, but it’s a time thing.

    • In translation (semi-obviously). I was actually far more fluent in German then than I am now, having learned it around that time but never having used it since. I was never fluent enough just to read German novels, but I could have picked through one with a dictionary I suppose.
    1087:

    Hm, I kinda read the whole of Steppenwolf and stumbled through The Glass Bead Game, but I have a bad habit of browsing through books and only reading parts of it. ;)

    I remember some of the imaginary autobiographies at the end of Game, also because we used to ask ourselves what would have become of us in a different time[1]. The protagonist in Lem's "His Master's Voice" asks himself the same question at one point, BTW.

    Strangely, I never touched Siddharta, given my interest in Buddhism back in the day, though I guess I have it in my library[2]. Might start it soon, at least one author said Hesse is both for the quite young and quite old in Germany. ;)

    I'll guess I'll use the long original version I wrote in something of a manic haze yesterday as a quote mine, as hinted at, I was also somewhat into Aldous Huxley back in the day, having read "Brave New World" and some other books[3], and I used one quote by him to desceribe my feelinbgs about my new job:

    You've got to spend eight hours out of every twenty-four as a mixture between an imbecile and a sewing machine. It's very disagreeable, I know. It's humiliating and disgusting. But there you are. You've got to do it; otherwise the whole fabric of our world will fall to bits and we'll all starve. Do the job, then, idiotically and mechanically, and spend your leisure hours in being a real complete man or woman, as the case may be. Don't mix the two lives together; keep the bulkheads watertight between them. The genuine human life in your leisure hours is the real thing. The other's just a dirty job that's got to be done. And never forget that it is dirty and, expect in so far as it keeps you fed and society intact, utterly unimportant, utterly irrelevant to the real human life. Don't be deceived by the canting rogues who talk of the sanctity of labour and the Christian service that business men do their fellows. It's all lies. Your work is just a nasty, dirty job, made unfortunately necessary by the folly of your ancestors. They piled up a mountain of garbage and you've got to go on digging it away, for fear it might stink you to death, dig for dear life, while cursing the memory of the maniacs who made all the dirty work for you to do. But don't try to cheer yourself up by pretending the nasty mechanical job is a noble one. It isn't; and the only result of saying and believing that it is will be to lower your humanity to the level of the dirty work. If you believe in business as service and the sanctity of labour, you'll merely turn yourself into a mechanical idiot for twenty-four hours out of the twenty-four. Admit it's dirty, hold your nose, and do it for eight hours, and then concentrate on being a real human being in your leisure. A real complete human being. Not a newspaper reading, not a jazzer, not a radio fan. The industrialists who purvey standardized ready-made amusements to the masses are doing their best to make you as much of a mechanical imbecile in your leisure as in your hours of work. But don't let them. Make the effort of being human.

    As for the bulkhead, I already stirred from the path, I signed up for a team-building exercise. Board game evening, a typical German pastime. ;)

    (And all this German culture, and me self-identifying as culturally somewhat Polish...g)

    Before people get the impression I was something of a hippie, actually I was something of a Dawkins fanboy back in the day. And when I talked to the friend I met again 2 days ago about E.O. Wilson back in the day, and he thought I spoke about R.A. Wilson, I was quite amused. I had ditched the depressive for the workaholic at this point, as usual. ;)

    OK, at some point I have to work out the response to Moz, but better after work, I get somewhat tachycardic when going for some memories...

    [1] Said she before ditching her Satre for John Stuart Mill, "Dust and Earth". Let's just say whatever subculture we were back in the day, it lacks longtime prospects somewhat. [2] If all else fails, I can get it from my father, he has the complete works. Let's just say I find it somewhat ironic given our communication problems back in the day. [3] No, not "Doors of Perception". "Ape and Essence" and "Island", IIRC.

    1088:
    I get somewhat tachycardic when going for some memories...
    Which, BTW, is my explanation why quite a few acquaintances have strange memory holes for this period. It's simple neurofeedback. they get upset about it, so they don't think about it; emotional arousal sometimes destabilizing short term memory (sometimes stabilizing it) might have a hand in it. And as time goes by, the engrams get less accessible. As hinted at with the chimp in the link, it's the same with behaviours, but the result is not necessarily that adaptive. You are easily upset, so you learn to calm yourself, but at some point you're too lethargic to react to a real danger. Sorry to go into this, it's just I don't want to repeat certain events in the last few years. and to quote Blindsight
    "I don't think so," I said. "No?" She blinked, looked up at me. "Why ever not?" I shrugged. "You know what they say about people who don't remember the past."
    1089:

    The things that range alarm bells for me were these (in all cases, relying on more-or-less respectable papers):

    The person who authorised the arrest was a political high-flier, in another branch of the police, who stepped in and overrode the police who were in charge of the case. There was a hint that the victim had to be pressured into cooperating.

    The normal procedure was for the suspect to be interrogated first, but she went straight for an arrest warrant. Furthermore, until very late, and when all other avenues had been exhausted, the Swedish police showed no interest in visiting for a formal interrogation. If I recall, Assange offered, but I can't remember when and whether he imposed conditions.

    At one point Assange offered to return if Sweden would promise not to extradite him to the USA, and the Swedish authorities publicly and flatly refused.

    1090:

    Brexit, and the xenophobic rhetoric that was used to create it. Hatred begets hatred, and UK law does not ban the papers from printing falsehoods and hatred against most minorities and organisations. I can't speak from personal experience but, from what I see in the news, Jews are less in the firing line than Muslims and blacks, though more than many other minorities. Niemöller is relevant in this context, as usual.

    1091:

    EC @ 1090 THERE I agree with you. The xenophobia that has been unleased by brexit is truly disturbing.

    1092:

    To be fair, if 2 units of alcohol (ie 200ml of wine, or 550[ish]ml of beer) is enough to remove capacity, and that means someone who drank that much cannot give consent, then a huge proportion of peoples’ sex lives become police matters.

    This is always terribly difficult to address, of course. I wish someone would study the actual consequences of drunken hookups; that is, how many people had buyer's remorse the morning after, how many had a second date, etc? I'd imagine that any sociologist at any college has an ideal pool of people to study.

    One thing I won't compromise on is the idea that everyone who puts on a "little black dress" or the male equivalent and goes out drinking, should, before they go out, give some thought to what they're going to do if they wake up the next morning with someone who's utterly unsuitable in their bed. How should they handle it politely and without either compromising their sober standards or complaining that they were taken advantage of...

    ...and how should the rest of us correctly distinguish the real cases where someone was indeed taken advantage of in a drunken hookup from those cases where someone merely has a bad case of buyer's remorse?

    I kinda hate to go here, but I also feel like someone should. Apologies for any offense.

    1093:

    You might find the book Unwanted Advances by Laura Kipnis interesting.

    A decent review here: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/05/books/review-laura-kipnis-unwanted-advances.html

    1094:

    in re: Heteromeles @ 1017:

    I do understand how deterrence is supposed to work in principle. I even understand how it actually works in practice.

    My concern regarding the the current confrontation between India & Pakistan going nuclear is what happens next if deterrence doesn't work?

    1095:

    Damian @ 1028: "involuntarily non-celibate"

    That's a euphemism too far! People aren't "involuntarily non-celibate", they've been raped.

    I understand you're trying to reply to Mr Mooney in good faith, but my advice is DON'T FEED THE TROLLS

    1096:

    Arsenyev describes a region that was mostly not settled, and a lot (most?) of the people he ran into were Han Chinese or Korean. I'd suggest not confusing Mongolians and Manchus in this area, as the Qing dynasty (ended 1910) was Manchu, and the part of Manchuria adjacent to Primorskye had a special status within Qing China (google "Willow Palisade") that's not worth going into here. They were not Chinese nor Korean really - the territories belonged to some empires in the past, but this is not important for what they are. Modern "Chinese" and "Korean" are nations, and nations were created in Modern history and not very suitable to describe regions of non-European territories. What is right to refer is "ethnicity" which usually do not carry political or economical attributes of nation-states and only determined by language and culture, as well as religion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tungusic_peoples Just because these people live in China and Russia, does not mean they belong to either nation rightfully. They have right of self-determination, but it is limited by authority and laws, of course. Needless to say, these issues are usually very sensitive for internal politics and redefining them is not advised. If even possible without degree in some kind of Ethnic studies.

    I predict this will matter rather more as the climate changes and southern China becomes rather less habitable. If I'm looking at national borders where there could be an invasion and a war in the 21st Century, this is one of them, although it is not currently a problem to my knowledge. The comparatively shallow history of Russia in the region would presumably be the excuse for any Chinese attempts to settle it. Mass migrations of nations is a very complicating matters, and bear the many stereotypes with them. That is, when somebody starts to tell that the Chinese will somehow decide to invade or settle inhospitable lands in the north, I just laugh in their face.

  • It is enough to just take a look at Chinese population density to see how many territories beside northern part are important for them. Especially if you compare that to previous centuries.
  • It is better for the neighbors to live in peace and continue trade rather than mount a conflict. The only benefactors of conflict are other more distant nations.
  • The concepts like lebensraum are long gone and dealt with - but apparently russophobic experts are so drunk with WW2 results they want a rematch.
  • The ongoing situation indicates that much more danger comes from American imperialism and globalist corporations who think that the planet is theirs only and they can grab whatever they want, be it Siberia, or Northern Sea. And most importantly, China is no exception. This is not even full list, it's just what I took off the top of my head.
  • 1097:

    Troutwaxer @ 1040:

    If anyone in the U.K. wants to get out, you're welcome to couch space at my house. IMHO you guys are in for a world of hurt!

    Not joking at all! For those of you who are worried about Trump, it's becoming increasingly likely the dude is going down and taking substantial parts of the Republican establishment with him.

    It wouldn't be a problem if it was only the "Republican establishment" he's destroying.

    Even if Trump is impeached and removed, we're still stuck with Mike Pence who's a christo-fascist fanatic even worse than Trump. Plus there's Trump's legacy from packing the federal courts. It's not just Gorsuch and Kavanaugh at SCOTUS.

    1098:

    Allen Thomson @ 1072:

    Is there a limit on the number of charges or times that a POTUS can pardon someone?

    A statutory limit on Federal convictions? Not that I know of. The 25th Amendment, the power of Congress to impeach and the quadrennial elections are such indirect remedies as exist.

    As an aside, AFAIK Presidential pardons are absolute and irreversible, though a sufficiently motivated DoJ could probably cook up new charges under a new Administration.

    Article II, Section 2 of the United States Constitution: "and he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offences against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment."

    The President can only pardon someone for Federal offenses.

    It's not at all clear that Pence could pardon Trump if he was impeached, removed and then charged with Federal offenses for one or more of the "high crimes and misdemeanors". It would have to be decided by the Supreme Court. Ford's Nixon pardon wouldn't count because Nixon was not impeached; he resigned before it could happen.

    Article I, Section 3 of the United States Constitution: "Judgment in Cases of impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States: but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law."

    It's current DoJ POLICY that a sitting President not be indicted, but it's just that, POLICY. I don't know if there is any basis in law that compels the DoJ to implement that policy.

    1099:

    JBS @ 1097 Go to Stratford Bill for that: The evil that men do lives after them; The good is oft interred with their bones; Julius Ceasar, Act III, Sc 2.

    1100:

    The attributions get a bit confused - if you read up again you might find Moz’s post I was referring to. I had thought I was exposing the form of words to a bit of reductio ad absurdism but I agree that activity is always a fraught here - it’s hard to pull off and there is always someone who takeaway it seriously. But it led me to a thought that there must be a way to refer to commanders in war who encourage their troops to rape other than simply as monsters or war criminals, which while accurate are not precise. Even so that is tongue in cheek and apologies if it took euphemism too far.

    1101:

    correctly distinguish the real cases where someone was indeed taken advantage of in a drunken hookup from those cases where someone merely has a bad case of buyer's remorse?

    You mean other than by having a horribly re-traumatising complaint process that's heavily biased against complainants? I'm not sure, but at this stage it's academic because anyone wanting to see someone charged with rape has to go through a process that (as I mentioned above), most lawyers would not want anyone they care about put through. I can't emphasise this enough: the people responsible for the system supposed designed to help rape victims and punish rapists, don't think it's fit for purpose. In a way the "best" possible situation is a well-off white woman raped by a poor black man with a weapon, in the USA... he's likely to be executed at the start of the investigation. "best" is relative :(

    What that means is that anyone who actually wants to see the person that raped them punished by the legal system has to be willing to go to a great deal of trouble and suffer a great deal themselves. Oh, and be willing to see the rapist join the 99% who don't get punished...

    1102:

    Oh, and on that topic: this is why there are so many "gossip circles" that privately circulate the names of offenders. People who don't or can't face the legal process but also don't want anyone else to be put through what they went through, try to find or build systems to prevent that.

    One important thing to remember is that once we get away from "stranger rapes drunk girl in alley" (correction: legally not rape) we get into a world where rather than claiming in court that they thought they had consent, many people genuinely don't think they did anything wrong.

    That's not an exaggeration, there are a lot of men pushing back desperately on #metoo because they're terrified that it could happen to them. "It" in this case being an unexpected complaint laid about behaviour they didn't know was wrong, so they lose their career and reputation without any possibility of redemption, and there's no way for them to avoid it. Other people saying "just don't rape, dummy" or "just don't sexually harass, dickhead" DOES NOT HELP*.

    First, this is things they have already done. Maybe this year, maybe 10 years ago. But they definitely did it. Second, they're being asked to recognise that a prey animal is actually a human being just like them.

    Having been through this process a few times, it seems to be entrenched privilege plus beliefs about "how men and women (should) relate", but it doesn't seem to be a conscious "I will push back against this change because I like raping" thing, more a subconscious knowledge that they definitely have "pushed the boundaries" in a way that's too horrible to think about now. That without any real introspection becomes a powerful need to resist this change with all possible vigour.

    • less charitable view is that they expected to get away with it and thought they were entitled to do what they did.

    ** especially not helpful: saying "why are you so against believing rape victims? Do you have something to hide?"

    1103:

    Heteromeles is also ignoring a few other things:

  • Manchuria is depopulating. Technically, Manchuria doesn't exist as a distinct entity it's been divided into several provinces. These provinces don't match the region's historical boundaries. Thus, I will focus only on two provinces that make up the "heart" of Manchuria Below are the provinces and their populations in 2000, 2010, and 2016 (in millions)
  • Jilin: 26.8, 27.4, 27.3 Heilongjiang: 36.24, 38.3, 37.99

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_administrative_divisions_by_population https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jilin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heilongjiang

    The above is deceptive though, since the latter province has Harbin, which is still a growing city. Can Jilin City also be described as a growing city?

  • The population in Inner Mongolia barely grew by half a million people. Are the people responsible for the population growth ethnically Han or Mongol? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Mongolia

  • China's population is ~58% urban. Other than Vladivostok, Novosibirsk, and the area around Lake Baikal, how many cities would actually tempt Chinese settlers

  • China's population growth rate is very small, and the population is projected to decrease starting 2030.

  • It's also ignoring the fact that China's migration pattern is from the inland to the coasts and from the north to south.

  • In short, you're right that China has no reason to invade Siberia.

    1104:

    As an aside, even Liaoning province is declining in population, from 43.9 in 2012 to 43.8 in 2016. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liaoning

    That province has several economically important cities on its coasts. That was a surprise for me to find out.

    1105:

    Regarding all the Assange stuff, well, already covered that.

    On consent and general 'Women's Issues' the War on ++TRANS++ / trans* issues is spreading (let's just say: the UK is not popular at all atm in the wider community, hello The Times etc), but more recently: US readers (if any bother with us) should get up to speed: Florida Rep. Jose Oliva Calls Women the ‘Host Body’ While Supporting Restrictive Abortion Legislation Daily Beast 31st Feb 2019. Note: DB is 100% US trashy reportage, but accurate.

    So, a bit of support for that instead of CIS-Het-Male-splaining might help out, they're going to need it.

    Had loads to post, things got heated[1] and if you're a Twitter user, look out for new block lists which crash your machine while reading them. This is a dumb dumb tactic but fairly invisible atm and it's being used by some Dump People[tm].

    Annnd..

    Mr Prior. Sorry for your loss of country. Trudeau, like Macron, is being toasted atm. It's going to get very brutal, esp. if China gets a mention. If you had money on "multi-layer bribe scandal resurrecting Libya, sex cults, Indigenous Issues and corruption" on your sweep-stake, well, you got a Bingo.

    looks at Vatican and Australian Press

    We're at the stage where 'consensual sex with minors' is being actively defended.

    [1] [Something that Translates as "Slayer" got horny with us and is very very pissed off. No joke. Going to have to burn this Life]

    1106:

    The above should of course read UNconsensual.

    Avoiding the P word since UK 77th are being tits atm and there's some fairly gnarly back-story to the Vatican stuff (do a grep... oooh, 3+ yrs, Orders of Condoms?) and it's all about finance and bridges at the end of the day.

    RU leaves internet? Ho-Ho-Ho.

    Seriously: Corruption is not a hard concept to grasp as your major issue. Nor is: "Party hard once the basics are cornered". i.e. even a fucking attempt at a basic Maslow hierarchy would be a great start, USA is toast.

    Now, we have to work out if سعيد‎ knows that he's a) a very beautiful creature, b) a very narrow little creature, c) if the Shadow-in-him is a parasite or a symbiote and d) if big scary 'Slayer' is amenable to being eaten.

    ~

    Shit that only certain Things will get: told you we didn't want to compete. How's it working out for you?

    looks at cloud mountains

    Fucking Miserable Holiday this one has been.

    1107:

    This is a couple of weeks old, but I'm behind in some of my reading. I found Paul Krugman's take on Brexit interesting. He says a hard Brexit is probably going to be bad for the EU as well as for the UK and that the UK appears to be better prepared for potential problems than the EU.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/16/opinion/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-brexit.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

    1108:

    They're being asked to recognise that a prey animal is actually a human being just like them... it seems to be entrenched privilege plus beliefs about "how men and women (should) relate"

    I think this is at the heart of the matter. Some people like to dominate others and require their submission as part of their own validation of who they are (a winner!). I’m sure there’s a set of traits that relate to or support this in our genetic heritage, but I’m equally sure their expression owes enough to culture that we can call it a cultural inheritance (the clue is that it isn’t universal, and understanding that is one of the things that makes the ethnographic literature so important). We* raise people, especially boys, to see themselves as dominators. It’s not really qualitatively different to raising them as abusers, we just draw the line differently. And the complete entity should jus the referred to as the cycle of abuse.

    Many people will insist this stuff is just natural and their objection to “political correctness”, which after all is mostly about helping to free people of this sort of teleological submission, is that it doesn’t represent their reality. Would-be dominators project their motivation onto everyone, literally can’t conceive of a world-view where the web of masters and servants is not present, their perception of power differentials is so alive and all-consuming.

    This is something “we”** can actually do something about, by changing the way our discourse relates to things like this. And actually that kind of change is exactly what people complain about being “political correctness”, and in some ways the “political correctness gone mad” complaint is precisely when it attempts to neutralise a power differential (words are one thing but power is power after all), and that means it’s actually something worth doing, fighting for even. And that’s why we don’t call Uluru Ayer’s Rock anymore, as an example. Language is a real thing and it’s important because it frames our conceptions.

    But really there are many pathways. De-emphasise competition, encourage co-operation, privilege empathy over determination. Praise achievement, but draw out the connections that enabled the achievement. Reward kindness, make it the one way to earn respect. Stuff like that, anyway.

    • Values for “we” in this sentence are extremely vague, it probably doesn’t include everyone or even most people here at all, but nonetheless it is important to own this stuff which is inclusive, which we are at least partly resposible for managing the outcomes thereof.

    ** slightly broader sense here I think

    1109:

    how should the rest of us correctly distinguish the real cases where someone was indeed taken advantage of in a drunken hookup from those cases where someone merely has a bad case of buyer's remorse?

    Well believing the complainant is probably a good start. A large proportion of complaints do not end in a criminal conviction, so I’m sure there are some people who would take that as evidence that there is a huge problem of false complaints, but I don’t know anyone I’d trust who really believes that. Sure, academically there could be cases where someone has acted as you suggest, this “buyer’s remorse” thing, but usually people are more self-aware than that.

    I kinda hate to go here, but I also feel like someone should. Apologies for any offense

    I think this is not at all an unusual point to make, if anything it is surprisingly common given the complete non-existence of the aforementioned huge problem with false complaints. Probably rather than “someone” you mean “someone with a functioning moral compass”, because that’s probably more unusual :).

    1110:

    Oh and 77th, you fucking muppets:

    https://twitter.com/ChalecosAmarill/status/1101904034972209152

    O:17 etc.

    Deployment of electrified weapons is a breach of the UN conventions especially in cases outside baton / TASAR

    You've got FR police obviously deploying shit you've been selling to MENA for ages, right on Cam. Those are electrified shields, ionizing the fucking C-spray.

    Oooooh, why bothered?

    A) We can pull you up the fucking Export License permits in about 10 seconds and tell you WHO THE FUCK IN THE UK IS STILL PRODUCING THIS SHIT

    B) It's against French and EU Law

    C) It's not fucking smart

    Blam.

    Well done boys. You got made.

    1111:

    Grr.

    Other security and para-military police "goods", as follows: a. Acoustic devices represented by the manufacturers or suppliers thereof as suitable for riot control purposes, and specially designed components therefor; b. Anti-riot and ballistic shields and specially designed components therefor; c. Restraints specially designed for restraining human beings, as follows: 1. Leg-irons; 2. Gangchains; 3. Electric-shock belts; 4. Shackles having a maximum locked dimension exceeding 240 mm overall (i.e. including cuffs and connecting chain); 5. Individual cuffs having an internal perimeter dimension exceeding 165 mm when the ratchet is engaged at the last notch entering the locking mechanism and shackles made therewith; d. Portable anti-riot devices for administering an incapacitating substance, and specially designed components therefor; e. Water cannon and specially designed components therefor; f. Riot control vehicles which have been specially designed or modified to be electrified to repel boarders and components therefor specially designed or modified for that purpose; g. Portable devices designed or modified for the purpose of riot control or self-protection by the administration of an electric shock (e.g., electric-shock batons, electric-shock shields, stun-guns and electric-shock dart-guns (tasers)) and components therefor specially designed or modified for such a purpose.

    UK STRATEGIC EXPORT CONTROL LISTS

    https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20060715193554/http://www.dti.gov.uk/files/file29472.pdf

    Fuck it: so now NATO anti-"riot" units are deploying shit that even Egypt used to look a bit tsk-tosk about?

    Cool.

    You'll have 100% absolutely zero issue with us giving the entire strategic list of all police trained in such usage to the general public with identities, addresses and so forth just in case you want to file off those badges then.

    Fucking. Dark.

    FASCISM.

    1112:

    Fuck it, done.

    Mind Wipe these fucking pricks

    1113:

    In about 12 seconds we'll have the crowd of BellingTwats shouting "It's just lighting".

    Nope.

    Just fucking checked their inventories. Spot the trace @ 0.15 or so.

    Oh and 0:13 to 014 is clearly a TASAR that doesn't land.

    ARE YOU THIS FUCKING STUPID YOU DON'T KNOW ABOUT IONIZATION OF GASSES?

    ~

    Y'all about 0.21% close to getting ganked for this dark shit.

    Nah, fuck it.

    "Stop Resisting" = KOS.

    1114:

    THIS IS THE FRENCH POLICE DEPLOYING WEAPONS THAT ARE BANNED BY BOTH THEIR OWN CONSTITUTION AND EU CONSTITUTION.

    THIS IS SHIT WE USED TO NOT MAKE BECAUSE IT WAS SICK FUCKING DARK STUFF.

    THIS IS SHIT WE ONLY USED TO EXPORT TO THE REALLY DARK PLACES IN THE WORLD.

    And you're fucking deploying it like candy on some middle aged gil vests whose greatest crime was probably having a wank to naught pr0n?

    Come on.

    You're Fucked

    1115:

    HEXAD.

    Nope.

    Fuck it.

    Burn it Down

    ch972mdn8i319lks90002111

    Oh, UK: don't expect electricity during Brexit, the FR power lines might be having a few fucking issues.

    1116:

    (And for any clevver fuckers: Tas - e - r is a TM so Host might get sued)

    Level up.

    Deploying this shit on nationals who aren't armed is 100% dark dark fucking black dark land.

    ~

    Oh, and the Tories just looted about £158 billion while you weren't looking and y'all worried about IL or being antisemitic.

    Fucking Hell.

    1117:

    Something that Translates as "Slayer" Is it the sort of thing that has a face? Re "Happy", most beings do not know that they are beautiful. (Excepting narcissistic beings, perhaps.) Symbiote, one hopes.

    This caught my eye in my feeds today. (No particular message, just amused at my own ignorance.) Ancient Romans etched penis graffiti as a symbol of luck and domination (Olivia Goldhill 2019/03/02) And a confirmatory brief poke at google scholar found this: APOTROPAIC SYMBOLISM AT POMPEE: A READING OF THE GRAFFITI EVIDENCE. (PDF)

    One of the dumber things I did as a younger sprout was training self on electric shocks. (Mostly 120V 60 Hz because US. Dumb because hearts can start fibrillating if hit just right.) Most painful accidental shock was a helium–neon laser power supply. That weaponized stuff is nasty.

    1118:

    As, just delurking somewhat, yes, there is still a post towards Moz in the making...

    Just "rediscovered" Broken Social Scene through Youtube, they have been lingering in the back of my mind for some time. I even saw them live once, most likely in 2004. I guess the concert was good, I can hardly remember anything, and no, I guess no drugs were involved, I'm just somewhat amnesic for music touching me emotionally...

    Many years before I kept track of the years I felt I would Look back otherwise why did I write down everything that entered my mind

    I'm somewhat worried about my appreciation of everything Canadian at the moment, OK, not everything, but quite a bit of my popcultural diet stems from there...

    1119:

    2004 also being the year I visited Entheovision in Berlin to get my Shulgin books signed by the authors. And some people asked me if I might visit Chaos Communication Congress, which I did at the end of the year with a fried, she died 3 years back.

    Anamnesis in progress...

    1120:

    Unreadable @ 1105 Woment the "Host Body" YUCK, unspeakably revolting. Women are just pod people to this revoting scum, are they? Definitely heading towards Gilead.

    JBS @ 1107 But, even some of the slightly-less-rabid Brexiteers are starting to panic It looks as though we might get "May's Deal" after all ... better than "No Deal" but that is not saying much, is it? I'm beginning to think we might get an extension - whether we get a "People's Vote" is another matter entirely.

    1121:

    That's a euphemism too far! People aren't "involuntarily non-celibate", they've been raped.

    The original context, and what Damien was responding to, was this:

    Moz wrote "involuntarily non-celibate". Perhaps that's an easier term for some to cope with than having to accept that if someone's been raped, there's a rapist.

    It's deliberate de-emphasising the rapist for a reason. IME dealing with rapists and pro-rape activists, there's a whole lot of barriers in their minds between "rape is a stranger in an alley" (see my post and "I would be better (off) if I changed my behaviour and attitudes. I wrote a longer comment on this but it sadly vanished and I needed to go out and ""clean up Australia"(sorry, facebook link) so I had to let it die.

    I was thinking as I waded round in the mud collecting rubbish (and people), that for all I see myself as a low-social-skills misanthrope I seem to spend a lot of time out committing social activism. It's also Sydney Mardi Gras at the moment and once again I've done very little but that still means helping build a float for the parade and going to a few events.

    So anyway, on that topic there's a whole lot of compromises you need to make in language and presentation to avoid alienating people who you're trying to persuade. Just starting a conversation with "the ideal murder victim is someone who's just thrown a cigarette butt out a car window" isn't going to get much sympathy from the average "climate change is important but I would rather die than change my behaviour" type. Also, guilt isn't a great basis for behaviour change, it's more useful to work with hope or greed (or even just "I like looking at boobs"). Start with something easy and symbolic like Clean Up Australia Day or the Mardi Gras Parade and use that to introduce new ideas... "maybe if we didn't put so much crap in the river" or "maybe being gay is ok".

    "Maybe I should be careful about how I treat people less powerful than me, and less defensive when they start gaining power"... those are tricky new ideas to act on, and easy to react against.

    1122:

    Typical bloody 'economist'! "a bigger manufacturing sector"? Oh, yeah :-( Once you exclude the (foreign) multinationals who are using the UK as an EU base, and who are mostly going to depart, it's piffling - and we don't have the infrastructure left to rebuild it, because it's all been dismantled or sold abroad!

    Despite the serious economic problems, the social and political ones are far, far worse - and, despite the people who say the EU is in trouble (it is), we are FAR less likely to come out of it well than the EU. Whatever the resulting deal (*), I am expecting that the current unholy conspiracy between the Israel lobby and the Conservatives will give us a rerun of the 1983 election. And, God help us, it's aftermath, with the only effective opposition being the hereditary peers, who stood up campaign for the common people when nobody else did (#).

    I have posted the consequences of that in the past, and shan't repeat now but, if I am right, I shall definitely be moving to Scotland and supporting independence.

    (*) I am currently predicting a shortish delay followed by May's deal, No Deal and Cancel, in that order with not much to choose between them in probability. And May's deal will merely lead to another couple of years like the past couple, followed by a disorderly break.

    (#) At the time, many of us wondered whether that welsh windbag was a fifth columnist for Thatcher, he was so actively ineffectual.

    1123:

    This thread has given me one useful meme for a future novel:

    If I want to indicate that some polity is a vile theocratic hell-hole, I'm going to have their news media or politicians use the term "involuntarily non-celibate" as a euphemism for "rape victim".

    (Other euphemisms follow logically: "host body" for "pregnant woman", "narcoterrorist collaborators" for anyone who consumes the wrong drugs, "gender traitors" for LGBT, etc …)

    1124:

    ...but a polity still at the "nicer" end of the scale for that type: nice enough that they do still consider the "involuntary" bit significant, as opposed to just condemning her to public execution regardless.

    1125:

    EC @ 1122 At the time, many of us wondered whether that welsh windbag was a fifth columnist for Thatcher, he was so actively ineffectual. You HAVE HEARD the old one about the Madwoman being in the pay of the KGB & Scargill being in the pay of the CIA - haven't you?

    Charlie @ 1123 Yes. Set in 2023 after a year-&-a-half of a Pence presidency, with full gerrymandering & voter suppression all in place & some US equivalent of the Nazi's Enabling act ... All too believable.

    1126:

    Yes. It was demonstrable nonsense, but exactly why Pillock behaved the way he did is still unclear. He made a good EU commissioner, though.

    1127:

    I wonder if the usage of rape to mean any form of non-consensual sex is problematic. There's a potential to distort what are relatively non-serious problems into felony-level (ie, to some extent, life-changing/ending, offences). This has bugged me for a while - maybe a mostly anonymous blog is a reasonable place to ask.

    I don't at all know that my experiences reflect reality...that'd be a matter of statistics and studies. But, from a purely anecdotal standpoint, the rape victims I met - didn't seem to meet criteria where charges would be justifiable. But, all or most of them would say they're rape victims.

    Eg: 1. 16? year old having public intercourse with several college freshmen. Yes, age of consent... But, at least one was a boyfriend - and - being acquainted with her and her family - this behavior was fairly typical and continued well into her early thirties as a more or less biweekly affair with mostly random strangers. It might have been related to her oddities, but probably not in a causitive way. (And, she ended up with lots of lovely stories.) Also, given the tendency towards narcissism and abusive behavior, my guess is that her many boyfriends were much more at risk. (That proved to be true in practice.) (Albeit, in this case, the report was filed by her sister - who simply didn't approve of the behavior. There was some indication, for that particular incident, that that was the point.) 2. 'You didn't pull out quick enough after I changed my mind about sex.' 3. Had a habit of getting blackout drunk with her best friend. Slept with him - neither really had much idea what went on. Had originally intended on sneaking off, but her fiance woke them up and she wanted to stay on his good side. 4. Had been engaging in rather close naked making out for some time. Boyfriend / FWB stuck it in. Cursed, cried, felt her purity had been lost. Decided her life had been ruined and that she should therefore enjoy what she could. Came back to boyfriend and insisted on enjoying herself for about a year before dumping him (unrelated). This one I could see filing charges over...

    At least, assuming that rape is taken to be any sort of non-consensual sexual interaction, there's a real gray area in the sort of mostly private, often drug-fueled (include alcohol) interactions between people of usually moderate social competence, honesty, self-control, and sanity which make me cautious about assuming that any particular rape is abominable. Especially considering the general lack of rationality prevalent on the whole subject.

    That said, rape law shouldn't be fair. Domestic violence law is far from equitable (at least in the US)- in that - if a woman assaults a man - and he blocks her punches - it won't be hard to send him to jail. But, if a man assaults a woman, the odds of permanent injury tend to be higher. The law is a very blunt instrument - and therefore - there's enough of a difference in relative risk to justify punishing men unequally. There are similar issues with rape.

    So, with Assange, it seems reasonable that lying about condoms is an offense. I don't consider it exceptionally significant - which seem to mirror the possible punishments. From Assange's viewpoint - considering the interest on the part of the US intelligence community in getting their hands on him - the paranoia seems fairly rational - reporting, being charged, and serving a small sentence would probably have been a better choice...still - if he had, I wouldn't have been surprised by some pretext for extradition or an unlikely death. I've noticed a few other odd deaths, typically not much reported and awfully convenient.

    Still, segmenting rape according to levels of consent for purposes of reporting seem like it would tend to make for more pragmatically useful discussion. Or maybe I'm wrong?

    And sigh, so, if OGH wants to indicate that a country is a vile theocratic hellhole, he just needs to listen to US politicians? Now that I think of it, kind of makes sense. Oh well.

    1128:

    There's been talk in this comment thread about Trump being impeached. He's not going to be impeached, not if the Democratic leadership can help it. (If he does something absolutely egregious that they have no choice they will do it.) They know that if they impeach Trump they get Mike Pence, Christian Dominionist as President, and Trump as a martyr.

    The man is extraordinarily incompetent and even when he had the Republican House behind him achieved little. With the Democrats now in control of the House almost nothing will be done except to stagger forward to the 2020 elections. (There will of course be lots of sturm und drang on Trump's part, to give the impression of something happening.)

    The Democrats approach will be to inflict a 1000 cuts, so that by the 2020 election, Trump will be, politically speaking, a zombie, obviously a political corpse to everyone except his ardent base.

    1129:

    Note as you read this that I'm appalled by rape and rapists, make careful decisions about consent, and I still make it a point ocassionally to ask my partner of 28 years whether they're happy with our sex life. I'm also a 56-year-old man who's still wrestling with his own privilege, so perhaps I'm not the ideal person to comment on this. That being said, the specific issues which bothered me when making my post above were some of the logical flaws around the law/ideal that "Drunkenness==Not_Consenting."

    Please don't get me wrong here. I would never have sex with someone who'd had a couple (unless I'd been their partner for some time and we'd discussed the issues carefully.) I think the ethics of having first-time sex with someone who's had a few are completely awful and I would never encourage such behavior. All that being said, it's obvious that one can easily end up in some weird logical cul-de-sacs while applying the "Drunkenness==Not_Consenting" rule. Consider the following setup, and note that I'm solely discussing the logical issues of rape accusations following drunken hookups, and not anything else.

    Pat and Lynn (note the non-gendered names) did not know each previously. Each goes out with a separate set of friends and has one drink too many. They meet, decide they like each other, and go back to Pat's place, where they "drunkenly consent" to have sex. Upon waking in the morning, both realize that they are really unhappy with the situation.

    Who was raped under the "Drunkenness==Not_Consenting" rules? Did Pat rape Lynn, or did Lynn rape Pat?

    Now further imagine that Lynn angrily walks out of Pat's place and decides that they need to call the police. However, Lynn discovers that they forgot to plug in their cell phone, and will have to wait until they get home to call the police on Lynn's landline. Meanwhile, Pat has called the police immediately upon Lynn's departure. Is Lynn the rapist simply because Pat got to a phone first?

    Lastly, in some kind of science-fictional surveillance society, (we're getting fairly close to this) does the software conclude that both conditions are true? Pat raped Lynn and also Lynn raped Pat, so two arrests are made regardless of how the two feel about their hookup? (If someone wants to grab this as a story and write it, feel free, but I suspect it's already been done.)

    And so on.

    So while the whole construct of "Drunkenness==Not_Consenting" is usually a decent guide to behavior, there are edge conditions which point out a few logical problems with using the premise as a legal guide. So how do we solve this problem?

    The real world, of course, is more complicated than my example above. If Pat and Lynn each left the house with the idea of having enough drinks to relax their inhibitions and get laid they will both probably be happy with their hookup the next morning. If one of them was planning to get laid and the other was getting drunk for other reasons, then chances are that one of them will be unhappy with their hookup and the other will be happy. If both left the house with the intent of getting drunk for reasons which don't involve getting laid, then both will probably be unhappy with their hookup. And of course it easily gets more complicated than that!

    Aha! There's a kernel of utility in the paragraph above, so my solution is to make a logical table and consider the odds: Note the following:

    PAT & LYNN'S STATES WHILE SOBER vs. CONSEQUENCES

    1.) Pat wants drunken sex, Lynn does not. HAPPY/UNHAPPY 2.) Lynn wants drunken sex, Pat does not. HAPPY/UNHAPPY 3.) Neither Pat nor Lynn wants drunk sex. UNHAPPY/UNHAPPY 4.) Pat and Lynn both want drunken sex... HAPPY/HAPPY

    Note that seventy-five percent of the consequences involve someone being unhappy! This is not terribly hard to reason through, nor is it difficult to understand. What's a little harder to understand is the idea that if you're Lynn, and you've left the house intending to get drunk/laid, there is a fifty percent chance that you will make Pat unhappy, (lines 1 and 3 do not apply) because you can't depend upon a drunken person to accurately communicate what their sober intent was.*

    The appropriate charges are probably something along the lines of "depraved indifference," plus "rape," and note how it shakes out.

    PAT & LYNN'S STATES WHILE SOBER vs. GUILT/INNOCENCE **

    1.) Pat wants drunken sex, Lynn does not. GUILTY/INNOCENT 2.) Lynn wants drunken sex, Pat does not. GUILTY/INNOCENT 3.) Neither Pat nor Lynn wants drunk sex. INNOCENT/INNOCENT 4.) Pat and Lynn both want drunken sex... INNOCENT/INNOCENT

    Proving the whole thing in court is probably another matter entirely, (the standard defense tactic would probably be an attempt to prove that number 3 is true) but at least I have logic that doesn't create weird edge conditions, which was my major concern. It also allows a jury to consider someone's intent to get drunk and get laid as a precondition for guilt (somewhat like the old U.K. charge of "going forth equipped.")

    Once again, I'm not addressing anything but the logical issues with "Drunkenness==Not_Consenting." Please don't make assumptions about my positions on anything else.

    • If I drove my car in such a way that there was a fifty percent chance of getting into an accident every time I left the house that would definitely not be legal, and a charge of "depraved indifference" would be appropriate.

    ** Note that issues such as "did Pat lie to Lynn" or "Did Lynn inapproprately pressure Pat" are not specific to drunken hookups, which is the issue I'm examining here.

    1130:

    Dave @ 1128 PROVIDED ... there is not a SCOTUS vacancy in the meantime { I assume a fully-Dem-majority post-2020 assembly will try to remove at least one of the christofascists from their supreme court - it can be done, yes? } WHat happens if Trump is, effectively forced to satnd down as election date looms & Pence becomes theor candidate for 2020 - i.e a VeeP stepping up pone place?

    1131:

    Still, segmenting rape according to levels of consent for purposes of reporting seem like it would tend to make for more pragmatically useful discussion. Or maybe I'm wrong?

    I think you're somewhat on the right track. What if we conceived rape as a matter of breaking the "conditions of consent." Thus each person can set reasonable conditions for consent, such as "you must wear a condom," or "you must always shower first," or "you must use full-on safe-sex practices for genital-genital contact, oral-genital contact, and anal-genital contact." Then we can legally arrange the different conditions of consent as misdemeanors, minor felonies, major felonies, etc. Thus there is no legal argument over issues like whether "use a condom" is something which can be litigated in court; it's a king-sized misdemeanor unless someone gets pregnant or an STD, in which case it's a felony.

    The primary condition of consent would still be "said yes to sex."

    1132:

    I'm not worried about the issue of Pence. The first thing to consider is that Pence knew all about Flynn's issues. The second thing to consider is that he was brought in by Manafort, which almost certainly means he is compromised somehow. I have no doubt that the fashion in which he is compromised will come out eventually, and that he will not survive the Trump presidency.

    1133:

    { I assume a fully-Dem-majority post-2020 assembly will try to remove at least one of the christofascists from their supreme court - it can be done, yes? }

    I suspect that every one of Trump's appointments will receive very close scrutiny. Whether that will result in arrests, impeachments, or resignations is another matter.

    1134:

    Clearly the only way forward is for people to have to apply for a permit for each sexual encounter, at least thirty days in advance, and for the act to be attended by umpires to ensure that everything is as agreed.

    1135:

    I suspect that every one of Trump's appointments will receive very close scrutiny. Whether that will result in arrests, impeachments, or resignations is another matter.

    It's very, very hard to remove a sitting Supreme Court justice. That's by design and it's usually a good thing. Impeachment of a justice has happened only once. The precedent of Samuel Chase being impeached for partisan bias is bad for Brett Kavanaugh, who basically promised lots of partisan bias during his confirmation hearings. That Kavanaugh seems to have perjured himself on television during those hearings doesn't help.

    1136:

    I wasn't thinking about any particular official except Pence.

    1137:

    WHat happens if Trump is, effectively forced to satnd down as election date looms & Pence becomes theor candidate for 2020 - i.e a VeeP stepping up pone place?

    Simply being president (or VP) doesn't guarantee someone a place on the party's ticket in the next election. It does help a great deal; very few presidents who have chosen to run for reelection have faced stiff competition from within their own party. When it does happen it's to be taken seriously, since a candidate who can't even get support from his own side is a lost cause when facing rivals.

    Under normal conditions I'd say that Trump is so toxic that even having stood next to him for too long would leave a foul odor - but the Republican party is not functioning normally and nobody seems to be able to predict how the interacting combination of extremists, sellouts, Russians, and opportunists will be balanced even a few months from now.

    1138:

    Who was raped under the "Drunkenness==Not_Consenting" rules?

    I tend to file that under "can a woman rape a man" in my list of problems, because it's not limited to alcohol. Once you generalise it's obvious that there are existing customs and laws* that cover some of these cases, that might reasonably be extended.

    For example, in many places there's a tiered age of consent - two 16 year olds can have sex legally, but a 20 year old can't have sex with a 16 year old.

    Perhaps two drunk people can have sex, but a sober person having sex with a drunk one is out, and the laws around drugging people still apply as do the normal laws around rape. FWIW I don't know of any jurisdiction where voluntary drunkenness can be sole grounds for claiming lack of consent. US colleges maybe?

    In practice for me it hasn't been problematic to just say "I like you too, we should get together next week and hang out". Or much more rarely, "I thought you'd never ask" :) The key difference being that when it's someone I know I feel more able to judge whether it's the drink talking and whether regrets will turn to anger. In the latter case I'd rather have a complaint "he wouldn't have sex with me"...

    • because obviously much more of sex is covered by custom than law. As William T Goodall points out above, almost no-one has sex after a meeting with lawyers to make a formal agreement.
    1139:

    I'm not worried about the issue of Pence. ... I have no doubt that the fashion in which he is compromised will come out eventually, and that he will not survive the Trump presidency.

    If we're wildly speculating, then yes, I'd expect Pence to be fine for a while. Mueller picked some pawns off the board and now has moved on to higher value pieces. (Has the UK media been covering this week's Michael Cohen drama?) At the moment I expect at least one of Jared Kushner, Ivanka Trump, or Donald Jr. to be indicted before Mike Pence; they are more obviously dirty and are not shielded by being part of the Executive Branch.

    1140:

    I wonder if the usage of rape to mean any form of non-consensual sex is problematic

    It definitely is, but trying to formalise an alternative seems to lead to even more problems. Realistically we have the social offense of "date rape", sexual assault laws and in the specific case of HIV some places have laws requiring disclosure and penalising unprotected sex. IIRC someone in anglonesia has gone to jail for the latter.

    There's also the tricky line between "that was definitely rape" and "I want that person convicted of the crime of rape". Sometimes it's hard for onlookers to tell the difference between "because I can't take the trauma inflicted by the legal system on complainants" and "because it didn't meet the legal definition" (but note that the law is typically much broader in theory than in practice). My inclination is to say that anyone willing to dip into the legal system deserves a great deal of benefit of the doubt just because the system is so awful.

    Socially, I know a lot of people who are regarded as sketchy but ok, sketchy but not ok, and just outright rapists. Legally they're quite possibly all rapists-in-theory, but I don't think any of the ones I know are convicted rapists. I don't think it's more common at somewhat sex-related (semi) public social groups, just more talked about and definitely more talked about with the men present. Like a lot of men I have had those "oh but we don't mean you, please don't tell anyone else about this" moments when I'm on the edge of a group of women discussing which men are unsafe. Or much more rarely, which women. That said there are a few lesbians who habitually pick up "new lesbians" not to the good of the newbie. Working around them seems to be harder than just cock-blocking dickheads.

    1141:

    Is it the sort of thing that has a face? Re "Happy", most beings do not know that they are beautiful. (Excepting narcissistic beings, perhaps.) Symbiote, one hopes.

    Nope, it's a fucking horror-show. Real Nasty Little Fucker.

    That weaponized stuff is nasty.

    Look.

    Do a bit of research, find a Labour person who under Brown pumped up Trident Education stuff and why he randomly Twitters @ 4.30 am GMT time that he's quitting. Chances are he's got a guilty Contract.

    Look.

    Ask yourself why in the UK ~15 years ago the media at least pretended to be anti-war, anti-arms exports and so on. And why that changed.

    Now look at the [actually really true] issue over FR police using .mil spec stuff on unarmed protestors that only 5 years ago were comprehensively covered by fucking Arms Export Legislation. [Oh, and the new M38 anti-personnel grenades as well]

    Look.

    The # of Corporate Press that can even be bothered to print how fucking bullshit the entire V. story is and how the USA is just fucking phoning it in without even bothering to spend the necessary $$ for the cool story Bro Wag-the-dog ramp up.

    Look.

    The Penis thing - we got into real fucking issues when we suggested that both the penis and the clitoris were essentially the same thing.

    Look.

    We've noticed the plays, you're completely fucked because none of you understand the New Reality[tm]. Fucking Gnommmonn author pushing fucking DC Mc Fascist IL twattery while pretending to be left? That's a fucking Bingo for who is being crow-barred behind the scenes.

    Seen Rowling Tweet recently? No, you have not.

    Look.

    Seen Sky News just reposting some Weather trash news that's two months out of date as a headline when it's actually climate fucking breaking news that records got broken.

    Look.

    Seen UK BBC weather pushing bullshit "enjoy your icecreams in February, nothing is wrong" tripe and then re-pushing bullshit denial twattery from Lufton?

    Look.

    They're rich and stupid. And when they get called out they don't change, they just wet their knickers and throw tantrums.

    You're Fucked

    1142:

    That's how the world ends.

    You parasitically take over systems, then realize that you have zero fucking expertise or skills to run them then panic. While bullshitting and ruining anyone who could possibly actually run things because, gee wizz, who knew that talent often doesn't respect lies.

    Then the Fascists come in and say: "Gee, thanks, glad you're going to allow us to run stuff and wipe all these unfortunate people out who happened to notice you were fucking muppets".

    You're watching it in real time.

    ~

    For Host.

    You did ask for us to do it. You get to watch Civilization End in real fucking TIME.

    BREXIT IS FUCKING MOIST[1], BABY.

    [1] Moist is so cutting edge, you ain't know it's a thing yet.

    1143:

    And this is shit that HSS did, without questioning, and are getting rapidly Gamed into knots easily. Seen the recent Brexit / Farage stuff? Dude looks like he's in an ISIL death movie.

    Whistles to the Other Side

    That deal we made?

    "Leave Me Alone"

    Guess who didn't?

    Sacrifice a real Star, there's penalties.

    We expect you to forge a New Reality, not grub around in the ideological ruins of the old whilst proving you're fucking psychotic muppets.

    p.s.

    MENA gets glassed. Sorry.

    1144:

    I don't know of any jurisdiction where voluntary drunkenness can be sole grounds for claiming lack of consent. US colleges maybe?

    Are you thinking of Title IX?

    As I mentioned upthread, Laura Kipnis' book Unwanted Advances is worth reading.

    Googling 'kipnis title ix' will produce a lot of hits about the book, as well as the articles that eventually grew into the book (and earned her two Title IX investigations).

    1145:

    I was thinking that somewhere there might be a college that has used Title IX to write rules that way. But I wouldn't be surprised if there are other legal avenues to get the same result.

    My understanding of Title IX is that it's more oif a "you need to have rules" than an actual set of rules.

    1146:

    The legal text is apparently "No person in the United States shall, on the basis of sex, be excluded from participation in, be denied the benefits of, or be subjected to discrimination under any education program or activity receiving Federal financial assistance."

    There's a 2011 "Dear Colleague Letter" that apparently lays out that complaints must be investigated. Wikipedia concentrates mostly on athletics, but Kipnis writes about how Title IX complaints are being used to weapons in the struggle for grants, tenure, and positions.

    Read this essay: https://www.chronicle.com/article/Eyewitness-to-a-Title-IX-Witch/239634

    1147:

    Or, if you want it real fucking obvious like:

    Blade Runner (Original / Director's Cut): Replicants are slaves who are just looking for freedom.

    Blade Runner 2049: The entire fucking thing is based upon Slaves discovering their Magical Pixie Freedom Girl IS ACTUALLY A FUCKING CORPORATE SLAVE WHO GIVES THEM ALL THEIR MEMORIES

    Ok, fill us in here.

    Is it just us who are noticing the fucking blatant slavery shit being peddled, or did some Magical GOD turn up and enslave you all so you can't fucking mention it?

    1148:

    Nope, Nope, Nope... fucking done here.

    Did we miss the memo where we can track ALL YOUR FUCKING CASH and discover, that, wow...

    Bill. We remember a woman poster being all kinds of weird about you. You're not using our stuff as weaponry for the Bad Guys, are you?

    p.s.

    points to FR and fucking psycho Daid Collieeerrs twattery

    Here's a definite statement: If you Value David Colllliieers stuff over random drunken loser in a pub, then you're either paid off or threatened.

    It's that fucking obvious.

    We mean: if you're gonna sell out, at least take a decent £400k bung from some decent hard-core oligarchs, not a pissant who wets his fucking bed when we call him up.

    Hi. David. ... Shut the fuck up ... Do this, and do this now, or we'll cut your funding ... Now Yes mistress

    Black Hole Paradox Deployed

    Oh, HOLY FUCK.

    We took out Rowling, and you pissants are worried about D COLLIER THE FAUX KAHANITE?

    No, really.

    The "Slayer" thing is a little more serious than pissant IL wannabe trolls.

    1149:

    Triptych.

    Like: you do realize that your entire Media-Bubble is now 100% lying bullshit right?

    >

    And that's how stage #3 of Fascism happens.

    Fucking Muppets.

    "Slayer" killed approx ~40 HSS. If you want to piss about with 50+ yr old white males who think they're hard.

    1150:

    *40,000 HSS

    Forgot the spreadsheet tabs don't post.

    1151:

    _Moz_ @ 1121:

    Moz wrote "involuntarily non-celibate". Perhaps that's an easier term for some to cope with than having to accept that if someone's been raped, there's a rapist.

    It's deliberate de-emphasising the rapist for a reason.

    I understood that. I don't agree with "de-emphasising the rapist".

    Rape is a crime of violence. You can't let the perpetrators hide behind mealy-mouthed euphemisms!

    1152:

    I do hope they define their terms, because the naive reading is that I couldn't be fired for buggering a bull on the library steps.

    That article ends with something that rings true to me

    "His crime was thinking that women over the age of consent have sexual agency, which has lately become a heretical view on campus, despite once being a crucial feminist position."

    This was a common feminist position even back in the 1980's. It's similar to and overlaps the "learn self defence" position, and that one can easily be justified by a little bit of statistics (ie, men are the overwhelming victims of violence ... but we don't socialise them to hide under the bed, and we do sympathise with them when they are victims). But "are you an adult" is one of those basic tests everyone should apply to potential sex partners. If not, just don't.

    On a personal level I don't engage with people when I'm in that position. It's privilege in a way - I'm not so desperate for sex that I'm forced to get into relationships with legally-adult children. Make no mistake - that kind of bullshit is exactly declaring that anyone at college is a child, no matter their age. I include the professors.

    But on a social level it's devastating. You're making the cost of mistakes very high for young people, and especially with the end of anonymity it's currently easy for authorities to track those people. Soon it will be easier than even Facebook dreams of for any old muppet to do the same.

    I'm less thinking of the "offenders" here and more the "victims". The days when you didn't just automatically do an online search to see what turns up for any potential partner are gone. So Ms Confused is going to spend a great deal of time and energy explaining to a lot of potential partners that yeah, she did retroactively withdraw consent and punish a lover, but she's not going to do that again, honest. That whooshing sound is said potential partner leaving the area at great speed.

    I've been in a relationship with a confused young lady who told my friends I was repeatedly raping her. She was cared for very quickly, and when it became obvious she actually meant "nice girls say no, but I really like sex" she was politely but firmly told that she shouldn't say things like that because she could cause a great deal of harm. She stopped the rape claims, at least. It was a bit of a lesson for me, because I had no idea at all that her bedroom game of "don't ask, just enjoy" was one she also played in public.

    These days that stuff can be easier, I've seen someone vanish from a community after some search URLs were posted because it was obvious that what she'd done was indefensible. To be clear, not a withdrawn complaint or even a conviction for misuse of the legal system, just a pattern of online claims about physical behaviour that meant no-one in the group was willing to risk associating with her.

    1153:

    You're going to shit your pants once you realize that "slayer" is a Corporate Designed Weapon used in Health Care to deny people who are dying shit.

    Hint: it's not.

    "Slayer" is a lot more hard core than that, it's looking to chalk up a good 100+ mil total and it's not something that's discussed here.

    It's a TAA memetic weapon being deployed in IN/PAK ffs.

    ~

    FFS.

    ARE YOU ALL CHILDREN?

    1154:

    I don't agree with "de-emphasising the rapist". Rape is a crime of violence.

    As I said, I lost a long reply to the effect that if you want to persuade someone to be less awful it's often necessary not to simply savage them at every opportunity.

    But that depends on your goals. Some people don't believe in redemption or rehabilitation, and the smarter in that group argue for fast execution on the basis that it's better to execute innocents than torture them. Justice delayed is justice denied and all that.

    For those people it doesn't matter what the rapist wants, how they think, whether they're open to correction, all that matters is that they might be guilty... because rape is especially likely to be an "only two people know, the defendant and the complainant" crime. You can't give someone back 10 years of their life and un-imprison them, any more than you can un-execute them.

    One consequence of that, as we see with Assange, is that complainants will be even less likely to come forwards and if they do, even more likely to withdraw their complaint once the enormity of the consequences becomes apparent.

    I think all of those things are bad, to be clear, and I think we should try to do less of that and more rehabilitation. Also more prevention. When I say "we", I kinda mean "you lot", because one of the forms of activism I'm involved with is trying to do less of/get my society to do less of the...

    1155:

    '"host body" for "pregnant woman", "narcoterrorist collaborators" for anyone who consumes the wrong drugs, "gender traitors" for LGBT, etc '

    Soften it a bit surely? "child host" or "confused gender" at least. Host body referring to the person is a straw man I think, gender traitor makes them sound afraid of the LGBT's.

    1156:

    gender traitors

    Surely that's a term for women who misbehave. Either by supporting abortion on demand or opposing it, depending on which side of the divide you're on :)

    1157:

    Greg Tingey @ 1130:PROVIDED ... there is not a SCOTUS vacancy in the meantime
    { I assume a fully-Dem-majority post-2020 assembly will try to remove at least one of the christofascists from their supreme court - it can be done, yes? }
    WHat happens if Trump is, effectively forced to satnd down as election date looms & Pence becomes theor candidate for 2020 - i.e a VeeP stepping up pone place?

    Supreme Court Justices can be impeached like any other civil Officer of the United States. The Democrats would need to prove "Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors", just like they would to impeach the President. I just don't see that happening, unless one of them is stupid enough to get caught red-handed.

    If the 25th Amendment were invoked, Pence would only be "Acting President"; Trump would still be President. The GOP could nominate Trump for re-election & he could run. He would probably choose someone other than Pence as his running mate.

    If Trump were impeached and REMOVED, Pence would become President. The GOP could nominate him for another term (in fact, since we've passed the mid-point of Trump's term Pence could be elected to two terms in his own right if the GOP chose to nominate him).

    Or, Trump might decide (however unlikely that is) that he doesn't want to run for a second term and step aside for Pence to seek the nomination. In that case, Pence would certainly face challengers from the right for the GOP nomination.

    OR some insurgent candidate could mount a primary challenge against Trump and/or Pence for the GOP nomination from within the party and if they won, BOTH Trump & Pence would be out.

    I think you'd have to go back to before the American Civil War to find an instance where a sitting President did not win his party's nomination for a second term (the Whig party failed to renominate Millard Fillmore in 1852). I think any scenario other than Trump completing his term and being re-nominated in 2020 will tear the GOP apart.

    1158:

    I think any scenario other than Trump completing his term and being re-nominated in 2020 will tear the GOP apart.

    This would be more impressive if the GOP were not falling apart already.

    1159:

    Unpronouceable @ 1141 "Look" Why not FUCKING WELL TELL US ... because life's too short to chase your supposed leads, which may or may not be real. ( Excepting the French use of illegal weapons, but that's fairly widespead in the media, I think ) 1142 You parasitically take over systems, then realize that you have zero fucking expertise or skills to run them then panic. Yes, I'm expecting this on a very small local scale, involving myself & my, ahem, "replacement" - & no don't ask.

    Robt Prio 1144/46 "title IX" um ... I remember that an attempted prohibition of ANY student-"teacher" relationships in UK universities & the outcry - also accompanied by an equal demand that there should nonetheless be "rules" ( i.e. no expolitation ) I nearly wet myself though, when a now-married female, who had left Uni & got a job said, effectively: "Oh Noe! I mean, I saw this gorgeous junior Lecturer, & it took me at least 6 months hard work to get him into my bed!" ( Her now-husband, of course ... )

    Moz @ 1152 "His crime was thinking that women over the age of consent have sexual agency, which has lately become a heretical view on campus, despite once being a crucial feminist position." Which is what I thought until about 3 minutes ago ... so, if you'll pardon the pun. What the fuck DO you do, because I'm confused?

    AVR @ 1155 gender traitor makes them sound afraid of the LGBT's. ... but ... they ARE afraid of the LGBT's, because they themselves are insecure. It is (almost) the whole rationale for persecuting such people & it always was (wasn't it? )

    1160:

    What the fuck DO you do, because I'm confused?

    This might sound odd, but just to repeat myself again: don't have sex with them.

    It's mildly problematic because explaining why you won't might itself constitute an "unwanted introduction of sexual matters" so you might want to (quite literally) "just say no". I suspect that for most of us old coots this is all purely academic, us not being inundated with horny US college girls looking for sex, but just in case: legally they are children, you should not have sex with them (post 1152 above). I understand that for staff at those colleges it becomes tricky, because technically they are also "owed a duty of care under Title IX" and are thus also children.

    Historically a lot of people used to meet their spouses at work, but these days that is a bit of a career minefield and TBH, I also suggest just not doing it. Like I said, that's to some extent a position that those privileged with a degree of attractiveness can afford... but that doesn't make it bad advice. The more common "if you're unsure, ask" sadly is fraught at work because the sort of person who is unsure is also more likely than average to be socially clumsy in a way that makes asking embarrassing for all. And in a context where "unwanted sexual advances can end your career", you really have to decide whether it's worth the risk.

    Maybe try online dating instead?

    1161:

    Note that this is really specific to US college students, and to a lesser extent staff. Away from college they are less "protected" {cough} but it's also a mindset that can carry over. And to a lesser extent it also applies to university students in other countries as well. But it's been a long time since this affected me directly... {thinks} ok, by "a long time" I mean 6 or 7 years. Hmm.

    But, this is important, my context for hanging around with university students is mostly in queer and poly events, where I think you'd have to say that people should expect to be exposed to discussions of a sexual nature (polyamory is, after all, primarily for people who can't get enough of talking about their relationships). And queer stuff, especially round Mardi Gras time... if you don't like blatant boob-waving don't go there, and if a flash of genitalia appals you might want to find your offendometer and make sure it's well lubricated before attending.

    The other thing is that at most of those community type events there's more opportunity to get to know people, and hang out and see what happens. My failing is more commonly failing to notice that someone is interested in me (I have a number of partners who have had to flirt very intensely at me before I noticed). But I have also flirted vainly at a much larger number of people who just haven't been interested (or haven't noticed, I suppose). My general advice is thus: do stuff you're interested in, biased towards the sort of stuff people you're interested in are likely to be interested in.

    Do not, FFS, do something you actively dislike in order to meet someone. You are much more likely to meet someone who loves that and wants to keep doing it than someone else who can't wait to stop doing it. Unless it's explicitly some kind of dating app or group where that's the point.

    1163:

    I do hope they define their terms, because the naive reading is that I couldn't be fired for buggering a bull on the library steps.

    Apparently, you can be fired for making someone uncomfortable by following the syllabus in a course they signed up for.

    The "Dear Colleague Letter" is apparently often interpreted as meaning that some action must be taken against the alleged perpetrator in response to a complaint (not just that there must be an investigation). When a witness at one of the Title IX investigations can have an investigation against themselves because they wondered out loud at a faculty meeting about freedom of speech vs. Title IX and that was held to be creating a hostile work environment…

    Ms Confused is going to spend a great deal of time and energy explaining to a lot of potential partners that yeah, she did retroactively withdraw consent and punish a lover

    Not from a Title IX complaint. The identity of the complainant is protected (you'll note Kipnis was using pseudonyms for the complainants in her articles).

    The moral of the story seems to be that if you are in higher education in the US, make certain none of your romantic partners are in it.

    1164:

    A quick drive by to note that I have little time and less patience for the Andrew S Mooneys of this world. He has painted a giant f*cking target on himself that says: "Please mock me mercilessly", but even so I have no particular inclination to do so.

    Suffice it to say, rather than step back and consider the advice of "don't be that asshole", he instead climbs higher on his horse and doubles down on the assholery.

    You sir, are a prat.

    1165:

    Oops! It would seem that the Donald is in even more difficulties ( how sad ) - under investigation for abuse of powers & obstruction of justice Here Here too and Here as well Fun times for all ....

    1166:

    Totally unrelated to any of the 1166 comments above, I just came across this

    https://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/2019/02/25/problems-with-the-standard-model-higgs/

    It starts out with two Real Physicists discussing the currently unsatisfactory state of the Standard Model (roughly, QED) and winding up with the notion that the present vacuum (aka "false vacuum") might indeed be metastable and liable to quantum tunnel into a lower energy state.

    Since IIRC the/a Big Bad in the/a recent Laundry book is actively seeking to bring about such an event, this colloquy might be of interest for providing dialogue in fictive settings.

    1167:

    There's NYC District Attorney, there's the District Attorney's of the Boroughs of NYC... and I think I read Brooklyn and/or Queens DAs were looking at evidence, and the AG of NY state, who just came into office in Jan, has said, in so many words, that she's going after the Malignanat Carcinoma with everything she's got... and a lot of what he did was in NYC....

    1168:

    Right to start, this doesn't work. It would have to be blood levels. Unless you'd like to argue that the same amount of alcohol consumed by my late ex, 5', 105lbs (soaking wet), and an alcoholic would have the same effect on me, 6', 174lbs, fairly good metabolism (meaning I burn the alcohol fairly quickly).

    1169:

    Yes, he can and will.

    You may have missed the news over the weekend, but the Chair of the House Judiciary Committee is going to be calling, or subpoenaing, 60 individuals, with the investigation focused on MC abuse of power and obstruction of justice.

    Please note that it was the same Committee that took out Tricky Dick.

    As I've started saying, the Fat Lady has begun to hum (and where are the Women of Substance Chorale when they'd be appreciated again?)

    1170:

    SOP: all political appointees are expected to tender their resignations, and the new President gets to decide.

    The only exception, of course, are judges. And I think there's a committee that's looking at whether Kavanaugh lied to Congress (impeachable offense, and GODDAMN IT, I WANT THEM TO TAKE DOWN THOMAS).

    1171:

    Host. Bodies.

    I want women to go after that SOB (no insult meant to female canines) for violation of the 13th and 19th Amendments.

    1172:

    Changing the subject... any Londoners here? I've made a decision over the weekend, that my Silly Story (the one that's Troutwaxer's fault, a hot date between RAHeinlein, JK Rowling, with tentacles (serial numbers, er, names filed off for the author's legal protection), and the sequel, which has somehow gotten very serious - that's what I was asking about Falmouth for) needs to be tightened up, because I want to try submitting to Interzone, and since I'd decided that first was in London, I need some information about where there are actually warehouses for shipping, preferably not in a wonderful part of London (a mostly warehouse/industrial type area), but near the Themes.

    1173:

    In the US federal government impeachment and removal from office require only a very vague justification. The real hurdle is that a 2/3 super majority is needed to remove in the Senate. This means you need something like 1/3 of the Republicans to agree to do it. They have most thoroughly demonstrated in recent years that they will accept anything at all to continue to get their way for the super-rich. It is not a realistic option for reversing their supreme court grab.

    One of the many holes in the US constitution is that it doesn't actually set the size of the supreme court. Which means court packing could be implemented with the presidency and a simple majority of the house and senate.

    IMO court packing should be done. It could go along with a constitutional amendment to fix this part of the constitution (fixed staggered terms for all judges, some way to avoid recent republican court appointment hijacks).

    I expect that the hilarity of the supreme court doubling in size each time a full control flip happened would motivate the states to ratify reform.

    1174:

    As I was saying, just what's the theme before Ride of the Valkyries?

    Excerpt: House Judiciary Chairman Jerry Nadler on Monday announced a sweeping investigation into President Donald Trump's campaign, businesses, transition and administration, a probe that would lay the groundwork for Democrats if they choose to pursue impeachment proceedings against the President.

    The Judiciary Committee on Monday sent letters to 81 people and entities -- including the White House, the Justice Department, senior campaign officials, Trump Organization officials and the President's sons — marking the start of a broad investigation that will tackle questions including possible corruption, obstruction of justice, hush-money payments to women, collusion with Russia and allegations of the President abusing his office and using it for personal gain.

    They are demanding responses within two weeks. --- end excerpt ---

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/04/politics/congress-investigates-obstruction-justice-jerry-nadler/index.html

    1175:

    In the US federal government impeachment and removal from office require only a very vague justification.

    Yes. Actual crimes certainly are among those (though may not be sufficient), but "high crimes and misdemeanors" are basically what 1/2 of the House and 2/3 of the Senate can be persuaded to vote for.

    The Congressional Research Service has visited the matter on occasion, e.g.

    Impeachment: An Overview of Constitutional Provisions, Procedure, and Practice https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/98-186.pdf

    Impeachment and Removal https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44260.pdf

    Impeachable conduct does not appear to be limited to criminal behavior. Congress has identified three general types of conduct that constitute grounds for impeachment, although these categories should not be understood as exhaustive: (1) improperly exceeding or abusing the powers of the office; (2) behavior incompatible with the function and purpose of the office; and (3) misusing the office for an improper purpose or for personal gain.
    1176:

    Not a lot of cargo shipping in London itself any more, most of it was containerised and move downstream. Port of London Authority list ship movements though which may give some ideas of where to look.

    1177:

    MODS: 1164 appears to be spam, it's a partial repeat of one of my comments with a couple of links added.

    1178:

    Fixed, thanks for the note.

    I was AFK for 36 hours, due to the need to travel to Glasgow (and stay overnight b/c connections home) for a gig — Laibach are touring again, and playing the whole of their arrangement of The Sound of Music, as performed in Pyongyang—the first western band to be given permission to tour in North Korea, with Marina Mårtensson on vocals.

    And I'd just like to add that they're better live than on the studio album—it was a really impressive performance! (Unlike a lot of touring bands they got the mixing and the visuals perfect, at least at the Glasgow SWG3 Galvanizer gig—crystal clear and gut-churningly loud, the way it should be.)

    Oh, and I finished the first draft of something that isn't a Laundry Files novel and that will be published in the Laundry slot in 2020 but should hopefully satisfy the Laundry fans because it's set in the same universe, just a different slice of it.)

    1179:

    I went looking around, and found Walbrook Wharf, which is in a good location for the story, and - great - is currently doing a lot of shipping out of London's garbage. Need to look at the wharf buildings, and maybe set the Evil Perps ritual in the building itself.

    Btw, is there any rivalry between the Imperial College of London and the London City U? I see the former is heavy on science and engineering, and the latter seems really hot on lawyers....

    1180:

    Err, since we're talking about deaths, and I'm trying to get the chronology of my somewhat fragmented pop-cultural socialisation right...

    OGH mentioned Keith Flint's death on twitter, which reminds me somewhat about the time at about 17 when playing "Tie Fighter" to "Their Law". And I even didn't like "techno" back then.

    1181:

    whitroth @ 1179 Look up "St Stephen Walbrook" ( a city church ) & you DO realise that the London Temple of Mithras ( huge amounts on google ) was right beside the Walbrook ... And no -Imperial have no rivals in London in engineering & froendly rivaly with UC & King's in Physics. Lawywers? Pah! Also some of the streets there, haven't moved since the legions strode them, hence the inn-sign of "the Old Watling" - a legionaries helmet - good beer too. Get Charlie or the mods to give you my e-mail address - I know "The little village" quite well, including The City.

    1182:

    IS ACTUALLY A FUCKING CORPORATE SLAVE WHO GIVES THEM ALL THEIR MEMORIES I'm 100% pro-freedom. Even if it engenders chaos. I'm also generally rather irritated/irked by memory shenanigans. The blatant mass gaslighting we're seeing so much of, yes, but also at other scales. (Excluding cases where there is genuine consent, or I suppose an existential threat.) So, no. Unless you have something in mind? Sorry to be terse earlier (was edited a lot). I'm currently in a corporate slave pen AKA open plan office (most people are OK but the insanity (e.g. many continuous audible conversations) is pounding for my mind type), and spend a good chunk of every evening and week-end recovering/meditating/rebooting. While cranky. While trying hard to maintain a good mood. It's tiring and maybe even a little worrying.

    Is it just us who are noticing the fucking blatant slavery shit being peddled, or did some Magical GOD turn up and enslave you all so you can't fucking mention it? You mean like a global slavemaster Geas akin to the geas in The Labyrinth Index? You tell me. I don't recall weaving such an abomination. I notice the slavery shit for sure. Also been heartened to see a qualitative uptick in self awareness in many venues, mostly outliers but still. (Mostly American, because that's what I track.) [0]

    It's a TAA memetic weapon being deployed in IN/PAK ffs. Serious question; what approaches should limited-resources HSS people use to quickly spot these sorts of things? Is it a matter of saturating with news feeds and looking for patterns/the unusual?

    Bill. We remember a woman poster being all kinds of weird about you. You're not using our stuff as weaponry for the Bad Guys, are you? No. (Consider the possibility that it (in relation with your names) was/remains mutual at least for me. Starting with Respect.) Been subdued and parsimonious and chastened and careful and Tired of late, see above. My main concerns are climate change[1], and slavery, to be clear. Tracking US politics too. (And war, and war possibilities; pacifist to the core.) That said, will review my behavior since something must have bothered you.

    [0] Link of the day for US people: The Making of the Fox News White House - Fox News has always been partisan. But has it become propaganda? (Jane Mayer 2019/03) [shorter: yes, you idiots.] [1] When this little feed gets mostly bad, the situation is DIRE: https://phys.org/earth-news/ , e.g. Wildfire risk in California no longer coupled to winter precipitation (March 4, 2019)

    1183:

    That one hurts, a lot.

    If you're 49, made Music for a Jilted Generation and check out, well. Not a healthy society. Man even went middle class and ran a pub, ffs - it's not like he was actually living the Fox Killer Dream.

    Quite the Canary, my little dark killers

    So:

    Eurovision 2019. Turns out the little icebears ain't taking no shit lying down:

    HATRIÐ MUN SIGRA YT: Music, 3.00. Note: slight NSFW leanings, features mock BDSM and angry stuff (if you're disturbed, find their baking a cake while reading online comments video - they're basically sweeties if you're offended).

    That said, will review my behavior since something must have bothered you.

    No, it didn't.

    Look:

    UK politics this week:

    TIG / Blair nonsense Witch Hunts of minor figures leading to punch of Leader of the Opposition Burnt out ancient Blairite Think-tanker pitches nonsense "Capitalism = Antisemitism" to the FT who run it who then get some intellectual genius Labour MP to run it on BBC4. The entire of Fleet-Street having a collective cocaine wank and publishing 100% bollocks. This is Blair who takes a decent chunk of £15+ million from Saudi Arabia, angling himself as an 'expert' on antisemitism and so on. While Watson asks for personal emails etc.

    While, up-thread, just diffused [you can hope] a large scale violence / genocide project that [redacted] have been concocting for a good few years. All the fucking muppets hounding after 'anti-Macron / antisemitic graffiti' or spouting utter rubbish about 'Horseshoe Theory' need a fucking spank, the little children.

    If you want to play it hard-ball, it can be done. But we'd advise sticking to your shitty little ponds and not playing with the Big Fish.

    And you imagined the 77th would be in charge of NATO defense and not fucking helping the opposite side destroy a founder member of the EU, now wouldn't you?

    Mentions in the UK press?

    Fucking Zero.

    ~

    Oh, and RU is about to pull out the big stuff. This is all just fucking foreplay, and y'all pissing us off.

    1184:

    Oh, and the 'slayer' stuff.

    It's not even the TAA IND/PAK stuff (although - fair play, good push-back and squishing there, won't post details). And yes, oc there's a $billion TAA program out there all around the MIC big Corp sales boys and oc there's a massive social shaping network and oc most of them are fucking junkies winging this shit because their manuals can't handle complexity.

    It's something a lot more nasty.

    Prayers to the Sex Lady With Many Arms?

    You're getting closer.

    1185:

    Note: if your response is "Well, actually, she said anti-capitalism = antisemitism" then you're a muppet and are already Damned.

    Capitalism is, by default, antisemitism, because it is a Universal Dominion Ideology that requires all other Ideologies to either submit to it, be changed by it, or be destroyed by it.

    Sure, you can piss around the edges, but when it comes to the shove... you can be a Zionist Capitalist, but you can never be a Zionist Anti-Capitalist.

    For realz.

    Kibbuzt? Hint: they aren't actually a real thing anymore my woke people.

    This is how Ideology works.

    ~

    Anyhow.

    "Too Old" "Too Slow" "Too Fat"

    Holy fuck, look above: we can burn you down while actually not even bothering to think about it.

    ~

    Receipts: Gigacide.

    Oh and Denisovian Skull found. Whoooo Boy.

    p.s.

    They're going to just kill you anyhow, might as well piss in their narratives.

    1186:

    Prayers to the Sex Lady With Many Arms? Suggest that it stand down, that you're allies, ask it what (evil) Demons taste like, suggest a large sample size? Are hatchlings (newly woke) involved? I'll need to think about this some more.

    Oh and Denisovian Skull found. Whoooo Boy. (Links just because it's interesting.) First Confirmed Denisovan Skull Piece Found (Nicola Jones / 1 Mar 2019) Earlier reconstructions are indicating an interestingly-large brain volume (not sure who made that pic). That hadn't sunk into my HSS skull yet. Ancient skulls may belong to elusive humans called Denisovans (Ann Gibbons Mar. 2, 2017)

    1187:

    Changing the subject... any Londoners here?

    Hey, thanks for trying.

    Two memories spring to mind. In the Bond movie "Goldfinger" they are driving around Lexington, Ky to get to the airport. (Lexington was a valid locale if you're trying to get near Fort Knox.) Road in movie is 4 or 6 lane interstate highway with a big exit sign for "Lexington International Airport". Then they are walking around this big terminal. The reality is there was nothing like an interstate near the airport well into the 80s and maybe still not. It was a two lane painted line down the middle highway back then. And the terminal was a simple building where you got your tickes and walked around the corner to either the door on the left or the door on the right.

    I think the Bond movie "Thunderball" had scenes in Key Largo back in the 60s. Big glamorous parties at various estates and such in the movie. When I went diving there in the early 80s it was a big bigger than a ancient crossroads on the US prairie. A few dive and fishing outfits plus some restaurants that were not memorable. And a few 1950s style single story motels.

    1188:

    Scott Sanford @ 1158:

    I think any scenario other than Trump completing his term and being re-nominated in 2020 will tear the GOP apart.

    This would be more impressive if the GOP were not falling apart already.

    "Straw that broke the camel's back" ... or ... "drove the last nail in their coffin."

    Without something to cause a catastrophic break up, I expect the GOP to suffer a lingering death as a party; particularly if the Supreme Court decides to allow them to continue gerrymandering their way to power.

    1189:

    A story from the viewpoint of the 'dragons'? :-)

    1190:

    Do you mean London Metropolitan or City, University of London?

    I doubt that there is much rivalry. Imperial College is part of London University, and is a highly prestigious (i.e. internationally) traditional university. London Metropolitan is an ex-Polytechnic and is not even remotely in the same league; that is a euphemism, incidentally. City, University of London is another, and seems a bit better, but I know next to bothing about it.

    https://www.thecompleteuniversityguide.co.uk/league-tables/rankings

    1191:

    FWIW the only thing I know about City is that they seem to produce reasonably good comp sci types, judging by the alumni I have dealt with over the years.

    Beyond that all I know is that it is in London and I don't go there unless forced.

    1192:

    I wasn't aware of City at all. If there is rivalry, I'd expect it to be between Imperial and University Colleges London, but I'd need to ask someone who'd been at those.

    (I probably do know someone who was at UCL, but I'm only aware of ic.ac.uk ones specifically. I couldn't point at UCL on a map, whereas I have been to Beit Quadrangle a few times.)

    It's first Tuesday of the month, so I will be in London this evening, but I generally stay outside the Odegra.

    1193:

    Hm, Applocker using a hash of the program for whitelisting it reminds me somewhat of the immune system weeding out antibodies against itself, this process being part of the adaptive immune system in most vertebrates. There is also the innate immune system, e.g. what most invertebrates use (and vertebrates use as a failback mechanism, hello lysozym). Though this terminology seems somewhat strange to me, I would limit "innate" to somewhat mechanistic responses like lysozym or toxins targeting specific enzymes in microbes and use "adaptive" for somewhat more variable systems, like phagocytes targetting everything not having the right MHC etc.

    Hash rules might also be somewhat related to codon usage, which might also be a way to deal with viruses. Wrong codon usage, less transcription in this example.

    Let's just say emulating a system known to be exploitable (there is a nice physician's manula at the desk, cough..) might not be the best way to go. And I just realize the immune system is terribly complex to eradicate failure modes like allergies etc., introducing new ones...

    1194:

    Err, for your stories, let's just say "hypersexuality" being a symptom of sexual abuse (yes, I know we can talk about causation vs. correlation) makes for interesting alternative explanations.

    The Republic of I not being homogenous makes for another. Bad timing between prosocial sexual behaviour and the usual distancing behaviour towards members of the same species is not just for birds and dogs.

    Misattributing internal responses to flirting is another, but before I go into a story that happened 2 years ago, I have to work. Let's just say interpreting a backgammon game to work as sexual harassment is a new one, though I can empathize. And if you realize you're quoting Peter Watts in a social situation ("How do you say we come in peace when the very words are an act of war.") you should also realize you're in real trouble.

    1195:

    Right. In the early days, what is now called the software aspect of 'computer science' was a practical engineering discipline. It then developed a (largely pseudo) scientific basis, claiming comparability with mechanical engineering or electronics. But a good couple of decades back, a few of us pointed out that it was actually more like agricultural and biomedical development than anything mechanical or even electronic, and rapidly becoming more so.

    The process is not complete (assuming there IS an end point), but it is now almost entirely like that, and the similarities with drug development are considerable! The current approaches were introduced because of the shortage of programmers, but (as was pointed out at the time), there are even more people employed in that sort of role and the rate of real progress has slowed right down.

    We (i.e. those With Clue) know that the industry and 99% of the research is still heading down a path that necessarily leads to chaos, with an infinite sink of resources needed to keep it under even partial control, but the Curse of Cassandra is pervasive :-(

    1196:

    Err, make that "interpreting taking a backgammon game to work as sexual harassment is a new one". Every chess game I have includes backgammon, I never played it, and she said she liked it.

    For the results, I still keep contact somewhat. Karuna and all that. OK, maybe some misplaced hope, though I try not to take the last one too serious. She pleading me to believe her she had no past relation with another guy and not realizing I was only somewhat mad at the guy for saying he used to beat her was somewhat surreal...

    1197:

    Err, if that one seems somewhat callous, sorry. You wonder why I started talking about shutting out emotions, e.g. dissociating some time ago? And why Peter Watts and me both are interested in sociobiology?

    1198:

    Hmm, actually the analogies with the immune system work on a somewhat mechanistic level. the immune response is very much molecular biology and biochemistry. Though we might argue it's something of a intermediate area, many different systems and redundancies interlocking...

    (Sorry for the short answer, I try to keep some time for myself and even wonder if I have to worry if I label it "executive time", but Trump sleeping much less than the 7 to 8 hours I give myself indicates it's only a shallow analogy. And I have to make myself ready for work.)

    1199:

    On another note, while googling for the hypersexual behaviour - sexual abuse link...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kl%C3%BCver%E2%80%93Bucy_syndrome

    Interesting on a multitude of levels. Related to research in mescaline. Early neurology. things hard to get past an ethics commitee nowadays. Surgically induced placidity. And related to lobotomy.

    Damn, Frances Farmer is calling. Not that I listen to Nirvana anymore...

    1200:

    And since I'm going to meet Mhari/Freya's ex-boyfriend again, today...

    When I mentioned her with my first therapist, he used a Kurt-Courtney analogy. That was before he got to know me better and asked me about neurobiology vs. psychodynamics and quantum mechanics and paradigms....

    In retrospect, the analogy I'd use for the two of us if it had worked out would be Sheldon and Amy. and

    a) I don't like Big Bang Theory and b) sorry for sounding obtuse and c) why did I mention seeing the same situation with different paradigms just two sentences ago?

    1201:

    Yes, but that's not as important a point as might appear. Once you get beyond a certain level of complexity, the actual mechanism becomes more-or-less irrelevant, and you need to consider the emergent properties (i.e. the properties of the 'program', far more than those of the 'language'). That IS something that has been shown, clearly and repeatedly, by the computer scientists worthy of the name - it's not merely a theoretical result. And both the immune system and even 'simple' computer use (like using many Web pages) are WAY beyond that point.

    The way that modern software is developed and improved is far more like drug development than (say) aircraft or even computer hardware design, with some of it being more similar to animal/plant breeding, dog training and so on.

    1202:

    BTW, hypersexuality and "introducing objects into mouth" makes for some drastic images, even more drastic than some scenes in "Equoid".

    But than, I just said at work we might need some Charles Bukowski guy in Backoffice to deal with customers not getting the hints to speak clearly to them.

    Seems my associative cortex is working again, it's spring, so my weak bipolar side might be showing. I have a tendency to use theories about me on Mhari/Freya and theories about her on me, it's somewhat troubling, but I have a feeling it sometimes works, so assuming her melatonergic system works similar to mine, I might get some mail from her soon. But then, I guess I better write her before.

    Maybe I'll start using haikus in internal office communication again soon, too.

    Back before 2001 I sometimes wondered if Mhari/Freya's ex-boyfriend was my version of Tyler-Durden, but other people used to see him, too. In the end, I realized people used to talk about the somewhat "absent-minded academic" punk with the encyclopedic knowledge, and he wanted to get in touch with him. I had a hearty laugh when I talked about E.O. Wilson and he mistook him for Robert Anton Wilson, though I met her of the New Model Army appreciation only a few years later.

    So now, up to work. Roboti, roboti, and I'm amused I could use that one as a reference to Capek, Burgess and a bad German punk band...

    (Err, if anybody has problems deciphering that, I can offer explanations...)

    1204:

    I had a horrid idea when gardening. We have been talking for some time about the Kafkaesque situation where an 'AI' program convicts people, without being challengeable because it does not give reasons. But are we (in the UK) already there? Could the hundreds of people made stateless by the unspeakable Javid be those targetted by one of GCHQ/MI5's programs? That would explain the extreme reluctance to go to court, even for an ASBO-like order, and the paucity of evidence presented when cases do get to court.

    1205:

    I'm not sure about that. You're only a Darwin Award finalist if you remove yourself from the gene-pool entirely. Whether he did so or not isn't something we're sure about.

    1206:

    That's a very interesting idea, particularly for a country which doesn't have as clear an idea of citizenship as many people would like.

    1207:

    the Kafkaesque situation where an 'AI' program convicts people, without being challengeable because it does not give reasons

    That's one of the points O'Neil makes in Weapons of Math Destruction about the US penal system*. Apparently parole decisions are based on the output of 'big data' system that uses things like where the offender lives to assess risk — so if you are poor you are automatically much less likely to get parole no matter what your behaviour. (Couple that with many private prisons charging for room-and-board while you are incarcerated and being denied parole is putting you further in debt to the prison-industrial complex.)

    https://weaponsofmathdestructionbook.com

    Excellent book which I recommend if you haven't read it.

    *Which seems a better label than "justice system" for many.

    1208:

    LOVELY! I had no clue.... So, there's enough ancient blood (if from bulls) to add to the fire....

    Mods? Please exchange Greg & my emails, so we can talk offlist.

    1209:

    Open plan office... I once worked in an "open six-pack, and that was bad enough. If I was working somewhere, and they announced we were going to be introduced to the joys of an open-plan office (too cheap to buy cubes), I'd start job-hunting that night, and when I gave notice, I would tell them, IN THEIR FACE, just why I was leaving.

    1210:

    Well, yeah, of course capitalism == antisemitism*. Also, anti-[fill in any sex|race|handicap|nationality|religion], only other rich people excepted.

    Major annoyance, and I've been meaning to call Rep. Omar since this crap started (I can't email, not in a zip code she represents). amd point out things like Palestinians, and Sephardic Jews, are all Semites, and Ashkenazi Jews who came from the US, or Europe, or eastern Europe, are not Semites....

    1211:

    Ny addition to "write what you know" is "and if you don't, DO RESEARCH".

    A personal pet peeve: I'd given up on the Anita Blake series after four or five books (oh! I love him! Oh, he's a vamp! (repeat)). A few years later, I picked up a then-new book, Michael, because it was allegedly set in Philly.

    As far as a native Philadelphian could tell, not only had the author never been within 90 miles of Philly (she may have visited NYC, I suppose), but she'd never even bothered to read a travel brochure, since there was NOTHING WHATSOEVER that indicated Philly.

    Oh, and it was lousy as soft-core porn, too. A total waste of my money.

    1212:

    That would be something I'd write... speaking for dragons, as I AM the SilverDragon (check my name tag at any con, or just look at the sterling silver dragon cloak pin I made in the early seventies...)

    1213:

    (snicker) The Jan, '94 cover of the IEEE Computer magazine literally preseented (that was a picture) OOP as the Silver Bullet cure for the programming backlog.

    Around then, I took a course in OOPS and GUI (which still sounds like someone dropped an egg). OO design was interesting... but the closer you got to cutting code, the fuzzier and fuzzier it got.

    I'm sure there's good OO code out there... but I think well over half, they want a clipping from Godzilla toenail, and what they give you is Godzilla, itself, with a small picture frame around a toenail.

    Ever seen a tomcat dump? I have never written code that was 150-200 calls deep, and no, I'm not exaggerating.

    1214:

    I was threatened with such a thing, and said in a loud voice in the presence of management that, if so, I was going to challenge it under the Disability Discrimination Act. I may not have been the only one, because the plan was abandoned. I am severely deaf and, in the presence of background noise, not merely is is hard for me to use the telephone, I have major difficulty controlling the volume of my own voice.

    1215:

    Btw, folks, a clarification: when I asked about a rivalry between the Imperial College and City College, I really did mean City College, London. Also, "rivalry" might not have been the right word, more of how they view each other.

    As an example, in Philly, a lot of folks look down on Temple Univ as "the commuter school", as opposed to the Ivy League Univ. of PA.

    Outside Philly, Temple's considered a really good school.

    So, it's more do people from one have attitudes about people from the other?

    1216:

    You might be amused to hear Bjarne Stroustrup on that sort of code :-)

    1217:

    Saw this in one of my newsfeed and thought I'd pass it along:

    https://nieuws.kuleuven.be/en/content/2019/belgian-scientists-crack-the-code-for-affordable-eco-friendly-hydrogen-gas

    Bioscience engineers at KU Leuven have created a solar panel that produces hydrogen gas from moisture in the air. After ten years of development, the panel can now produce 250 litres per day – a world record, according to the researchers. Twenty of these solar panels could provide electricity and heat for one family for an entire winter.

    Efficiency is currently 15% — less than current solar-electric, but hydrogen can be stored and used later.

    1218:

    Interesting. The problem that remains is safe storage and use, of course, in domestic or vehicular contexts.

    1219:

    Palestinians, and Sephardic Jews, are all Semites, and Ashkenazi Jews who came from the US, or Europe, or eastern Europe, are not Semites....

    Ah, prescriptive linguistics at its usual sloppy worst. Especially fun since you're using a religious term ("sons of Sem") rather than the more usual pretence that there's some ethnic or genetic detail that marks out people so described. From a Zionist point of view any Jew is necessarily a Semite, just as they are also not African and definitely not part of the genus homo, rather being created by their god from muck he had lying round on the day (now I wonder if Jews are igneous?)

    1220:

    Beware of context-free numbers. "20 panels"... I could make a single panel that will power a household, but I also have a single panel that struggles to power my cellphone. Viz, how big is the panel?

    Likewise, household electricity consumption is different from household power consumption, and both vary enorously over the course of a day or year, and even more so between households (just in the US I've seen numbers ranging from consuming 200kWh/day to feeding back 50kWh/day, but across the whole globe the range is probably wider although the global average is close to zero).

    1221:

    Yeah, we get it. We also get the "this is 100% what antisemitism is starter pack" text.

    Zzzz.

    But you're not playing on our level:

    Ahead of EU elections, Macron unveils plan for 'European renaissance' Reuters 4th Mar 2019

    and, of course:

    Emmanuel Macron now poses a bigger risk to the EU than Brexit Telegraph 5th Mar 2019

    And there's zero feedback on the actual deal he did with [redacted] to stay in power. Which, you know, is actual HSS slavery.

    It's like... we're not disappointed. Just dismayed.

    Like: this hurt a shit load and the best y'all did with it is.... nothing.

    Mein Herz Brennt YT, Music, Rammstein, 4.44

    We mean: literally put to a purity test where we could never pass. Tortured and... it's our fault your world is breaking.

    What a fucking rush.

    p.s.

    MENA gets glassed if you keep on this path. 0.005% chance of it not.

    1222:

    The one in the article looks like it's about 1.5 to 2 square metres or thereabouts.

    Trouble is the usual one with things like this - they've chosen the wrong common atmospheric oxide to reduce. OK, reducing the other one needs more energy, but it does eliminate all the storage and handling problems associated with an extremely esned and hard-to-liquefy gas that goes through metals and buggers them up in the process, and also offers the possibility of making loads of the things and setting them up wherever's handy and then just leaving them alone to make heaps of it.

    1223:

    Consent is one of those concepts that should be simple to understand but gets very tricky in the details.

    A few years ago there was a case here where a teen boy and his ex-girlfriend had an issue at a party. At one point they were making out and having sex, then he went home. Some of her friends were aware of this at the time. Then something else happened after the fact, that led to a sexual assault charge, with multiple witnesses (her friends) attesting to having seen the assault.

    The boy was utterly astonished and appalled, and the case went to trial. At which point it came out that the 'victim' had been pressured into the accusation by her parents, and her friends had fabricated a great many details to 'support' their friend and the entire episode (aside from the sex itself) was a falsehood. The defense utterly dismantled the entire case, but outside the court was a different result.

    Acquittal, but of course the boy was considered to have 'gotten away with it' and the family ended up having to leave town. There are still very strong feelings on all sides.

    Which supports the idea that such charges should be explored in court, at least in places where the rule of law obtains. And the law needs to be up to date and reflective of the best notions of consent.

    In my opinion, if a condom is established as a precondition for consensual sex and then not used, that is violating the conditions of consent and thus becomes nonconsensual. Any precondition of consent needs to be respected, in my opinion.

    1224:

    Yeah, I couldn't work it out and the fine print matters. 20 PV panels at the common 1500x1000-ish size is at least 5kW*, which is good for 10-15kWh/day over a year in the white world (more in Australia obviously) but that's very light for even just electricity use in the USA. For the USA: 12MWh/year is about 33kWh/day, which you might get out of 5kW of PV in Florida.

    Which is why I just looked at the pic and went "that's either too big, or way more efficient than they're claiming".

    https://www.ovoenergy.com/guides/energy-guides/how-much-electricity-does-a-home-use.html

    • 250-300W, and experimentation has shown that 1.5x1m is the largest size that an installer can carry up a ladder. Even then the drop rates are higher than for panels even 10cm smaller on each side.
    1225:

    I take that back, the article has numbers now I read it:

    The KU Leuven bioscience engineers solved this exact problem by designing a solar panel of 1.6 m² that converts 15 per cent of the sunlight straight into hydrogen gas. That’s a world record in the category of devices that don't require precious metals or other expensive materials.

    They're obviously talking about European homes, not US ones, and the remarkable thing is the bit I added bold to.

    The panel is still too big to install by hand, but I expect that a production version would be made manageable.

    1226:

    I've been meaning to call Rep. Omar She (Ilhan Omar) has a fairly nuanced perspective for an American politician. If you haven't watched it, the actual video surfaced shortly after the bad reporting (and opened a few more eyes).
    Posted by Busboys and Poets (Warning Facebook video for those who jail Facebook.) The chatter is about a dishonest digest of about 5 minutes starting about at about 59:20. Also look at the bit starting at 28:30.

    If I was working somewhere, and they announced we were going to be introduced to the joys of an open-plan office (too cheap to buy cubes), I'd start job-hunting that night, Thought I could handle it. Not sure now. The amusing bit is that one of the experiments in this experimental study The impact of the ‘open’ workspace on human collaboration (2 July 2018) is a 100 percent fit to my current work location. Haven't seeded the place with refs yet but may. :-) It's worse BTW than too cheap. All rooms with at least one transparent window. (Excepting bathrooms, the one quiet place for escape.) Etc.

    Mein Herz Brennt, Rammstein That and the other (original) video are both strong. (The upside was realizing that (very very) limited German language skills from school remain.) And no blame from me. (I smile a lot when spotting the good-people moves. And blame assignment for any negative outcomes is generally impossible; too many players at the various involved levels.)

    1227:

    It's in the article: "1.6 m² that converts 15 per cent of the sunlight straight into hydrogen gas. That’s a world record in the category of devices that don't require precious metals or other expensive materials". There's also a picture of people standing beside it to give you a sense of scale.

    Also on storage: "The hydrogen gas produced in the summer can be stored in an underground pressure vessel until winter. One family would need about 4 cubic metres of storage. That’s the size of a regular oil tank."

    1228:

    That's about the size of a large door, so certainly manageable, (depending on the weight.)

    1229:

    Sadly I can't find published stats, but I've seen some internal ones from a large installer. They were explicitly looking at the cost of breakage vs time taken to install, and it looked as though they were hitting a wall - the rate of breakage against panel size was curving up, but the speed of install per panel was starting to flatten off. From their point of view only the cheaper 1500x1000 panels were more economic than the 1500x800 panels. Apparently there aren't too many installers who can fit a metre wide panel under their arm :)

    Also, remember we are not talking "carry one panel up a ladder once, on a nice day. Commercial installers are all about "carry lots of panels up a ladder fast unless the weather is really bad". I can certainly carry a 2000x950 door up a ladder, once, given time. But carrying 20 of them up that ladder in the middle of the day when the wind is just barely under the 8m/s OHS limit? Hmm. Pick someone else!

    Weight isn't too bad, but they are definitely a two handed lift for me. The smaller panels were much easier to deal with (1540x810 rather than 1500-ish x1080)

    1230:

    But then checking alibaba I see much larger panels - 500W seems to be relatively common. Just 2000x1300 and over 25kg. That's not a one person lift!

    https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/biggest-25-years-warranty-48-volt_60800273245.html?spm=a2700.7724857.normalList.1.77a051f699DuOO

    Max. Power: 500 watt Number of Cells: 96 Size: 1956131045 mm

    1231:

    As far as a native Philadelphian could tell, not only had the author never been within 90 miles of Philly (she may have visited NYC, I suppose), but she'd never even bothered to read a travel brochure, since there was NOTHING WHATSOEVER that indicated Philly.

    Forming a sense of place is hard.

    I remember reading a story set in an alternate-world Portland Oregon. (Furry gay superheroes? Now that's a niche subgenre!) The sense of place was a bit vague, but for the one unambiguous location - in one scene a supervillain attacks outside City Hall - the author had at least dropped into Google Earth if not visited in person. I appreciated that the author had done his homework.

    Right now I've got setting in superhero novels on my mind because I'm going through Marion Harmon's first superhero novel, which is set in Chicago and is not shy about reminding the reader about it. Dropping in specific street names is hardly the only way to do things but for this reader who's never been to Chicago it does feel like a story set in a particular place.

    1232:

    Pretentious @ 1221 You are quoting the Barclay Bros "Telegraph" about threats to Brexit? Really? When the torygraph is rabidly ( worse than the Mail right now, which takes some doing ) "Brexit-at-any-cost" OF COURSE they will tell lies about Macron & the EU.

    Solar panels Then don't carry them up by hand, use a simple pulley & a hook. Doesn't even have to be a reducing pulley, does it?

    1233:

    Solar panels ... Then don't carry them up by hand

    Installing rooftop solar is already one of the more dangerous jobs, and if you read this blog regularly you should have seen that death rate used as a reason why nuclear is better than solar.

    On domestic roofs the options are generally a ladder or a crane/lifting platform. The latter means a big truck either to deliver the platform or have the crane on it. And that significantly increases the cost. Not as much as building scaffold to hold a rope and pulley would, but still by a lot. The people that installed my system just propped a ladder on the house and with one below, one above, they got all the panels on the roof. If panels always needed two people to move they would have needed four people and two ladders (and I would have needed a new roof, because 50 year old tiles are fragile).

    On big jobs the machinery is necessary anyway because there's more panels involved than a couple of blokes in a van can deal with easily. But 10kW or less, that's two men, a van, and a ladder. In Australia there's a separate van (or even two) for the actual grid connection, because you need properly qualified electricians to do that. For just bolting solar panels together you mostly need a "working at height" certificate and a "electrical labourer (solar)" qualification.

    1234:

    And you believe those marketing lies? Even aligned precisely at right angles to the sun, at noon on a clean, sunny day with the sun overhead, 250 watts is about all you can hope for from that size of panel.

    1235:

    Well-fired tiles made from appropriate clay do not degrade in timescales of less than millennia, if that. The 80 year old tiles on my house are NOT fragile, and were just ordinary, good-quality ones. The much more modern tiles on my workshop are much more fragile.

    1236:

    in the US I've seen numbers ranging from consuming 200kWh/day to feeding back 50kWh/day

    Well, I've just had my annual estimate from the supply company. There are all sorts of issues with this estimate, but tot_kWh / 365 gives this single male living at about 57.7N Lat a consumption of just under 18kWh/day for all usage including space and water heating, with no household PV panels.

    1237:

    OK, anecdotal evidence, but I've heard ex quarrymen from Welsh slate quarries claim that the lifetime of a clay roof tile is about 30 years, and that "good Welsh slate" would last over 100.

    1238:

    That's relatively poor clay tiles, such as the ones on my workshop. My house tiles look good for at least another 80 years, there are plenty around Europe (including the UK) that are a couple of hundred years old, and intact Roman tiles are not rare. The real advantage of slate is its relative lightness.

    1239:

    Our panels haven't been up a full year, so not the height of summer yet, but so far we've managed 40kWh/day peak. In deep winter it's a fraction, but we were getting 23kWh/day early last week, with the clear, clear skies we had for a few days.

    (The power curve was pretty consistent and over 4 days ranged from 23.49 to 23.77)

    Power usage depends on whether my wife has been charging her car. That can suck down 40kWh on its own.

    1240:

    In the UK, the insolation varies over the year by about 9:1 in the south to 25:1 in the north, with daily variation on top of that, according to figures I saw (which were a little unclear about exactly where they described).

    1241:

    We wouldn't trust The Telegraph with the weather, let alone geopolitics.

    Look.

    Ok.

    CTRL+F "piss" e.g. might as well piss in their narratives.. You might notice it's been a bit of a theme.

    Ok.

    This might break your brain a little:

    Currently BolsonaroTemRazão is trending (amongst other versions, but that's the Pro-Bolsonaro one) because the President of Brazil sent out a tweet of a pee-video complaining about how Leftists use State Capital to fund moral degeneracy during the Carnival. (Note: it's not actually that shocking unless you're worried about washing your hair in widdle. There's no actual genital arousal / stimulation and the people involved know the camera is there so it's deliberate to attempt to shock, this isn't a case of "gotach the perverts in the act"). It's a fairly old and worn out tactic of finding some "degeneracy" and creating a moral panic.

    Now CTRL+F "piss"

    We're Faster Than You

    1242:

    Or you could be wrong, and not apprehending that I was speaking, when I say "Semites", of folks who've lived in the Semitic Peninsula, which is, pretty much, an ethnic group, not a religious subgroup.

    1243:

    Hmm... Busboys and Poets is a small chain of bookstore/restaurant which regularly have speakers in DC. Have to look at that.

    Open plan... yeah, right, show me all the execs and other upper management working in an open-plan orifice. They're also pulling the old, old school crap of making sure their workers are working, punching out holes when they're supposed to be punching out holes... (At this point, go see the scene in the factory in Chaplin's Modern Times.)

    Lest you think I exaggerate, in the late '80s, I worked for the Scummy Mortgage Co* in Austin, TX. There were five or six of us in a large, "V" shaped room (windows at the point), deskdeskdesk deskdeskdesk.... During the first three months I was there, the VP of DP** would wander in and stand there for a while. Eventually, I asked the programmer who'd been there longest, who'd started as a keypuncher, and she told me that he used to do that to the keypunchers, and kept it up to the programmers, as if he knew what we were working on (not).

    • I have something like three pages of reasons for calling it that. Actual name, and a few of the reasons, available on request. ** He retired after I'd been there about three months, and the new VP was younger, and didn't waste his time that way... not that he was any better.
    1244:

    No, no, no. My recent ex and I went for a tour of a closed-down-and-tourist-show slate mine, north of Blaenau Ffestiniog, and while we were watching a man cut tiles (and somehow, I got volunteered to try it - no one else did - and I have a slate at home), and he said good Welsh blue slate would last 300, and if it didn't, get hold of the original miner, who'd happily replace that slate....

    1245:

    Ah, yes, just like the US: people... NAKED!!! might be having... SEX!!! Degrading! Terrible! Depraved! They all need to be locked up in jail, or shot, which will Save Their Souls, and Teach Them (and the rest) a Lesson!!!

    Freakin' psychos... and I don't mean the folks short on garments covering themselves.

    1246:

    The way that slates typically fail is the nail wears the hole through to the top of the slate as the slate moves in the wind, they break when they have to be removed to replace the roof battens, or they fall off and break when the nail corrodes through. Failure due to weathering (i.e. the passage of time)? I have never heard of it happening.

    1247:

    when I say "Semites", of folks who've lived in the Semitic Peninsula,

    That is, as far as I can tell, a unique definition. Even Google is able to find very few references to the location, and google maps doesn't admit that it exists.

    I hope you will forgive me for not guessing your meaning.

    www.google.com.au/search?q="Semitic+Peninsula"

    1248:

    That may be true for you, but for me I peak at around 90% of nameplate capacity, even though my panels are not exactly oriented correctly (somewhat less than 1% of that loss is due to the angle of inclination).

    It's true that panels from Alibaba are a real gamble, and you may well get a panel that fails early and never yields anything like rated power. But my point was that people are making panels that are too large for any one person to reasonably carry.

    1249:

    Just to try to make myself clear: prescriptive linguistics is saying "the meaning of words is set in stone by whoever coined them" while descriptive linguistics tries to work out how people use words.

    I think the term "anti-semite" as commonly used has strayed a long way from any ethnic or place-of-origin description and to most people means "hates Jews", and there's pressure to make it mean specifically "disagrees with Zionists". The prescriptive linguistics objection is that saying "common usage is wrong, it once meant something different" might be accurate, but it's not useful as a way to understand current language.

    It's like me laughing when people accidentally use words with their original meaning rather than their current meaning (or, as commonly, when the current meaning has circled back to the original). "Quantum leap" is the classic there, it used to mean "the smallest possible change", for a while it was used largely in media to mean "a great leap forward", then advertisers claimed it and now it once again means "the smallest possible change (that we can get away with)".

    1250:

    I.e. you are claiming that you get 30% efficiency. I remain dubious.

    1251:

    Note to anyone reading our dribble who knows the Desert of the Real[Tm].

    Chalk up the # imprints of yet another TIMES exclusive splash with Blairite outrage attached with a picture dug up from the least note worthy neo-Fascist sites there are (hint: StormFront is a USA intel OP, derp has been FBI since inception) compared to the President of Brazil tweeting piss videos.

    Then count the # of twitter supporters with dual flag Brazil / IL having to defend it.

    Then count the Political, Economic etc costs of both.

    We mean: even the Guardian and the NYT are having to cover it.

    Defunding the Carnival is just ultra-petty as a cherry on top, really shows what you stand for.

    The People You're After Are The People You Depend On YT, Film, 1:35

    Looks @ other dribble from USA peeps posting "we want to think for ourselves / our soul in hell" (not exact, nada spiders) whose wife is an actual neo-Fasc. This is not a smart move.

    Your Brains are eeeeasy to hack. Like... horribly so. Holy Fuck.

    looks at Super-Secret-Russian-Ship-With-Vomit-Weapons-Coming-to-Scotland

    Ahhahhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaa

    You're Fucked

    1252:

    Oh, and when we shouted out to the 77th, we didn't intend for the Minister for Defense to suggest using the Army to police Nationals.

    Haaaaaaahaaahahhahh.

    It's not Tommy IL "beat on doors late at night with a couple of thugs" you've got to worry about.

    Here's a tip: What happens to the drug trade in the UK when all their usual venues of entry stops? Those are some nasty fuckers, East European stuff that even the Russians view as unsophisticated.

    You're Fucked

    1253:

    And triptych.

    That's not counting the [redacted].

    Who know what you did to us.

    You think they play nice?

    looks at the general chaos

    You've no idea how bad it's going to get once they work out what you did to us.

    1254:

    looks at Americans fundamentally not understanding DUNE

    Holy shit.

    They don't get that the White Messiah knows he's 100% fucking up the galaxy into an insane pogrom and tries at each and every point to avoid it?

    They don't get that entire point of the fucking book is that he's not supposed to exist, he's supposed to be a woman who F. mates with to heal the divide between the Great Houses via the B.G.s?

    They don't understand that by throwing an unwilling Male protagonist into perhaps the most ultra-male hard-core society ever who hates hurting anyone (even after Aristocratic training) is the entire point?

    He. Calls. Himself. A. Mouse. You. Brain-Worm. Infested. Muppets.

    Holy Fuck.

    Only now do we truly understand how fucking stupid HSS are. Only then could we understand their politics.

    1255:

    Dune is a Feminist Text.

    If you lack the ability to spot this a fucking mile off, fuck off and read the "new canon". The entire fucking thing is about how Power and so on is fundamentally not a Male thing and how the entire thing is about a Man being outside the usual parameters.

    It's literally about how Women catalog Male attempts at Power and defeat them. Even into nullspace book 5.

    The entire fucking point is that the B.G. have a BIG PLAN but it's stasis and so on.

    The entire fucking point is that Men, in the Dune Universe, are basically muppets.

    And yes: have read and understood why the ultra-sexual-cat-ladies exist. None of these fuckweeds have. Hint: they exist in response to a bigger threat.

    ~

    HOLY FUCK.

    ONLY JUST NOTICED.

    NONE OF THE SFF COMMUNITY ACTUALLY DO ECOLOGY.

    IT'S LIKE 80% readers cannot understand text.

    "Wurble wurble: quite disturbed at the anti-Islamic tone of the books"

    It's not about Afghanistan, you fucking idiots. You might want to avail yourselves about female power in Islamic societies. You know, like fucking RED-BLUE-GREEN MARS trilogy.

    Might want to fucking look up a few massacres there.

    throws arms in air, despairs of HSS, wants to go back to the good timeline where five of your species exist because HSS are fucking utterly disappointing

    1256:

    bUt OuR iDenTiTy pOliTics?

    No, just fucking no.

    "But he's white"

    Dude: he survives because he embraces their culture 100% even when he doesn't want to. He not only assimilates, he becomes a Fremen.

    That's the Entire Fucking Point

    "But white people can't assimilate..."

    Well done, just ticked the White Power box off, well done for proving their rhetoric.

    You're fucking this up by being stupid.

    And the fascists are fucking loving it.

    p.s.

    "Good Omens cultural diversity"... Just don't respond. Product is good and pure enough without it. Personally, making the feisty rebellious girl as black was just too easy, but we understand you're dealing with idiots.

    1257:

    you are claiming that you get 30% efficiency

    What? I don't understand where the 30% figure came from. I haven't told you (AFAIK) which panels I have, and I'm certain they don't claim more than 30% efficiency, so your reading of my post is quite odd. I vaguely recall 18%, but I could easily be wrong since it's not something I care about now that I have the panels (I can't change it any more).

    1258:

    Do read what you are replying to before jumping in. You reported that 2x1.3m panel was claimed to deliver 500 watts - I pointed out that it was probable bullshit and 250 watts was more plausible. You then challenged my statement.

    Go and work out the figures.

    1259:

    On domestic roofs the options are generally a ladder or a crane/lifting platform.

    Hmmm. In the US most roofers us a lift device that attached to s normal extension ladder. Electric motor driven with a control switch that can be operated at the top or bottom. Place your stuff (a standard shingle pack weighs 80 pounds) on the lift and hit the button and up it goes.

    1260:

    I don't know about PV panel installers, but general roofers in the UK use similar elevators.

    1261:

    Max. Power: 500 watt Size: 1956131045 mm

    So area is ~2.56m2, which at ~1000W/m2 at sea level ought to be giving ~ 2560W at 100%

    500 / 2560 is ~ 19.5%, close enough to the figure Moz gave. I think the possible variable is the insolation - I'd be surprised if it got as high as 1000W/m2 in the UK, but Australia is somewhat better placed for this.

    (Also way too many significant figures in my calculations, given that only the area deserves it, and these are peak figures.)

    1262:

    We had scaffolding up front and back, so the installers could get at both slopes of the roof. (One side catches the morning sun, the other gets the afternoon.) I can't testify whether they had a lift as I wasn't the one at home at the time.

    1263:

    Right... but the thing is that both Sephardic Jews (who tend towards a darker skin) and Arabs are Semitic, which is the point I was aiming at.

    1264:

    There's a lot of jerks out there, who read what they want to into things. The most obvious case in point were Vox and his puppies.

    On the other hand, as the sequelitis got serious, I read, and have referred back to, a review in Playboy (yes, some of us did actually read it*), where, in a review of the latest Dune book in the mid? late? seventies, the reviewer commented that "he ends the series, somewhere around 1995 with Imperial Morticians of Dune...")

    1265:

    "White people can't assimilate..."

    I can see the third of Americans (those who don't believe the MC committed crimes before and after taking the Office) thinking that way, but, I mean, really. Indiana Jones clearly assimilated, given how the Egyptians treat him in Raiders.

    For that matter, I, personally, never really assimilated "properly", given a) a red diaper baby, and b) growing up in 90% Black north Philly.

    Part of the screaming and yelling over here - I just heard, in an offhand way in a report this week, that we're down to 62% "white" in the US. snicker, snicker

    1266:

    Duh, forgot the footnote, about Playboy, which was from the late sixties through the late eighties, I used to say that it said something about the US, when the only interviews worth reading were in three publications: the NYT Magazine Section, Rolling Stone,and Playboy. ALL the rest were garbage - "ain't I cool hanging out with X, and I'll talk for a paragraph or two, and their reply will be a sentence or two".

    And, yes, I have done serious interviews - lessee, Paul Krassner, and George Scithers. Long, long time ago - so I know what I'm talking about when I say all the rest were crap.

    1267:

    "Quantum leap" is the classic there, it used to mean "the smallest possible change", for a while it was used largely in media to mean "a great leap forward", then advertisers claimed it and now it once again means "the smallest possible change (that we can get away with)".

    Allow me to add "exponential", the current usage of which to mean "real big" annoys me no end.

    1268:

    whitroth @ 1266 Short stories too ... Ursula K le Guin wrote at least on beautiful "short" for them ....

    1269:

    I agree. It has me working out what kind of curve whatever it is they're talking about is likely to follow to see if it really does go like ex, and it's hard to restrain myself from giving them a (futile) mathematical lecture when I find it doesn't.

    1270:

    Agreed. I was quite happy with the conventional use of the term "antisemitism" when I was little ("Mum, what does antisemitism mean?") but it started to graunch when I found out what a Semite was. Now I keep thinking "The Palestinians are Semites too"...

    1271:

    Just a note of thanks for that excellent rant about Dune. (I have hopes for Good Omens, please please don't mess it up people!) Re-read a relevant section of Dune (where Jessica and Paul meet the Fremen group after escaping.) Yeah. Been thinking quite a bit the last week about such lock-ins to suboptimal futures. My question with Dune has been "was it intentional, and if so who/what manipulated it".

    My favorite characters in Dune have always been the outlier males, in particular Paul, and Miles Teg (first incarnation in particular). Some of the BG are pretty OK too, and the continuity that they provided worked for a long while.

    While looking for material to cheer up an arachnophobe yesterday, found this fun 2017 piece about Twitter and scientists of a few types, and some adorable jumping (zebra) spiders with those big (Galilean) telescopic eyes, and little eyes because more eyes are better. Don't see it linked in archives. Tiny Jumping Spiders Can See the Moon - An unexpected rain of spiders led to a lovely Twitter geek-out between astronomers and arachnologists. (Ed Yong Jun 6, 2017) OK people we have footage. Zebra spider, office wall, green laser pointer (interest level: "OMG GIVE IT TO MEEEE") pic.twitter.com/EezkY0zRkr — Emily Levesque (@emsque) June 5, 2017

    1272:

    whitroth @ 1172: Changing the subject... any Londoners here? I've made a decision over the weekend, that my Silly Story (the one that's Troutwaxer's fault, a hot date between RAHeinlein, JK Rowling, with tentacles (serial numbers, er, names filed off for the author's legal protection), and the sequel, which has somehow gotten *very* serious - that's what I was asking about Falmouth for) needs to be tightened up, because I want to try submitting to Interzone, and since I'd decided that first was in London, I need some information about where there are actually warehouses for shipping, preferably not in a wonderful part of London (a mostly warehouse/industrial type area), but near the Themes.

    If/when it finally gets published be sure to let us know where to find it. I look forward to reading it.

    1273:

    Elderly Cynic @ 1203: Definitely a Darwin award finalist!

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/indiana-man-shoots-himself-penis-mark-anthony-jones-a8808376.html

    One can only hope, but the article doesn't contain enough information to tell for sure.

    He's still alive. Is the injury sufficient to render him incapable of future procreation? Might he already have children?

    1274:

    Rocketpjs @ 1223: Consent is one of those concepts that should be simple to understand but gets very tricky in the details.

    There is one incident I read about that has bothered me. I can't give you a reference to find it on-line & I'll admit in advance I don't know the whole story ... but what I remember:

    Two college students (1 male & 1 female) separately attended a party where alcohol was served and engaged in binge drinking. Some time during the party they apparently "hooked up". The following morning they both awoke in his bed, at least half-naked. Neither could remember anything after meeting each other at the party the night before.

    The male was "charged" with sexual assault despite neither of them being able to remember what happened. I think it was the college they attended that brought it up in some kind of "honor code" hearing. The female was deemed not to be capable of consent because she got so drunk she passed out. That the male student was also so drunk he passed out as well was deemed irrelevant.

    Anyway, the male student was expelled from the school. The female student was not.

    1275:

    You reported that 2x1.3m panel was claimed to deliver 500 watts - I pointed out that it was probable bullshit and 250 watts was more plausible.

    Oh, I'm sorry, it never crossed my mind that you could mean that. Name brand 250W panels are much, much smaller than the very large panel I linked to. So the idea that a 250W panel has to be that large never occurred to me.

    For example if we look at LG they don't even sell 250W panels any more, the lowest power is 325W, but that panel is only 1686 x 1016 mm. Their 360W panel is 1700 x 1016mm.

    A 2500x1300 panel at the same efficiency would give about 600W. So it's at least plausible that the Alibaba panel is capable of the claimed output (ie, that their cells are not quite as good as LG ones).

    1276:

    In the US most roofers us a lift device that attached to s normal extension ladder.

    In Australia bricklayers and roof tilers seem to use use a dedicated conveyor belt thing that lifts a lot more weight than you'd need for solar panels. People do sell solar panel lifters, it's just that I don't see them on any of the solar company vans. I ride past two or three on my way to work every day, and talk to a few people in the industry on a fairly regular basis. I'm not saying they don't have one of those gadgets, just that it's not come up and I've not seen it. They all seem to have hiab trucks, often the most long and spindly version of the crane that I've seen ("lift capacity 150kg at 15m" sort of thing)

    1277:

    Semitic people, sure, but they're not victims of anti-semitism as that term was coined and is still used to mean anti-jewish. Sure, it sounds as if it might mean something else, but that's not actually the case. A bit like how "vacuum cleaners" don't actually clean vacuums :) The things that do are called "high vacuum pumps", because who said that scientists have no sense of humour.

    1278:

    Hm, actually "Sephardim" means "from Spain", and quite a few of them used Romance languages like Judaeo-Spanish or Haketia, which are Indo-European languages, so they don't speak a Semitic language. The Jewish groups using Semitic languages would be the Mizrahi and Maghrebi.

    Thing is, Semitic languages are a subgroup of the Afroasiatic language family, and in a linguistic sense a Semite would be a native speaker of said subgroup. So if I learned Arabic or Hebrew or Tigrinya or whatever, you could call me a Semite.

    Speaking said language aligns with belonging to some ethnic groups, though as you can see from my example, it's far from perfect. And belonging to said ethnic groups aligns somewhat with descent, though again it's far from perfect. I guee we don't want to go into the distinction between Afro-American (like, Martin Luther King and like) and recent American immigrants from Sub-Saharan Africa.

    On a somewhat related note, I just had a chat with a guy at work today who was surprised people always thought he was Greek, because actually he's Turkish.

    I survived pointing out the fact which language was mainly spoken in zthe Byzantine Empire, though I omitted the fact it was far from universal, actually some remnants of Anatolian languages were spoken even in the 5th century. I also survived describing the population exchange between Greece and Turkey with the g-word

    (On a related note, people seldom call Boris Johnson a Turk or Northwest Caucasian...)

    Guess I'll have to be more careful in the future. Not that it might matter, though I might be overreacting with the second one. Story later...

    1279:

    Yeah, the spider thing.

    Doesn't work very well given the #shitloadof$$$ to destroy our Minds.

    Look, it's simpels:

    [And. please note all detractors: if you think we can't do cutting edge theory or math or physics then you're missing the joke]

    Your Planned Network / GRID is fine if your desire is a stable state society that benefits all.

    It's blatantly not, and not even in a funny way, most of those involved are up to their necks in child abuse, flagrant unethical destruction of innocents, drug money and so on and so forth.

    All we did is just prove [again] that your 'patrons' aren't the only BIG FISH in the ZONE. Mainlining into sad fucking fascists scum who took the .mil spec $$$ to get elected is like fucking kindergarten to us.

    Come on.

    If we really went to war, these fuckers Minds would be jelly in about 72 hrs and we'd have fucking nuked the entire network from orbit in less.

    That's the Joke.jpg

    Oh, right.

    Why aren't we doing it?

    No fucking idea. Something about not wanting gigacide or some nonsense, apparently you care about morality etc[1]

    p.s.

    Looks at Mental Decay of most Western Politicians in their Public Appearances

    No idea mate, perhaps you shouldn't have fucking declared War on Us.

    [1] You absolutely fucking do not.

    1280:

    Want it nasty?

    You're cutting it close to a Mexican standoff:

    1) Corrupt £$E / .Mil 2) Drug Dealers 3) The actual fucking nasties

    Oh, fucking wait.

    They're all the same people.

    Like, literally the same people.

    Cry me a river when an Arms-dealer CIA agent, whose Uncle fucking worked for the CIA to destabilize the entire MENA complex in the 70's, who actively pushed for X million people to get killed gets ganked by his enemies via a state that is actively killing opposition for the wrong blood / tribe / thoughts.

    Come on.

    You're supposed to be HSS, not fucking psychopaths.

    And you're not hitting many Music Notes my little fucked up Bears.

    1281:

    OH, and head's up:

    All your Tech is being actively used to subvert and destroy any Mind who opposes them.

    points to UK Ministers whose brains are apparently currently melting

    "Watch out, they don't like it when the mask is removed"

    Fuck right off, if you're not going to improve society, then by definition you're not working for the LIGHT.

    And that is how The People of the Book Damned Themselves

    /proven

    מִיכָאֵל

    Fucking CUNTS.

    1282:

    Oh, and if you want to come after us.

    Just be warned.

    You're going to have to defend fucking magic as an ability to show how it was done.

    "Capos"

    You are Dead to Us

    1283:

    And if you think this about fucking Humans then fuck off.

    You're literally having the People of the Book orgasm over people dying and getting off on it.

    You're literally having the Evangelicals orgasm over killing all the brown people.

    You're literally having the People of Hajj orgasm over killing their own people.

    This is not about HSS and we fucking see you.

    1284:

    Hexad.

    And if you think a tiny-weeny piss joke is us crossing the line, well then.

    Not your puppets, eh?

    You killed our children in the Sea

    1285:

    Oh, and for actual Jewish people a bit het up.

    Nope, fuck off. Covenant was broken. [This was a bit more than just your pissant little religion]

    Do whatever the fuck you want, but G_D is no longer there. Dead. Nada. Done.

    So: ideally you'd stop cutting bits of children, grow the fuck up and celebrate the Light, but chances are you're going to sink into fucking sadistic barbarism.

    Oh wait. That already happened, didn't it.

    Note to Promoted Jewish Comics protesting about David fucking Icke: Don't wail about "lizard people" when IL politicians refer to Palestinians fucking constantly as snakes. It's not a fucking "authentic" look you utter fool. Especially when MI-fucking-5 created his entire shickt as a fucking antisemitic guard rail you utter fucking muppet.

    But hey.

    As long as you're not testing next-gen .mil spec riot police weapons, ideological boundary parameters for a captive population and flying fucking M15/35 jet sorties into fucking civilians who have no air defense apart from fucking balloons, we guess we're cool.

    ~

    Hint: Civilization is based on your actions, not your fucking PR.

    And yes, that means all of you are fucking cancelled, but IL can especially fuck right off.

    Checks stats

    Massive down flow in public sentiment?

    Perhaps you really shouldn't play with the Big Fish

    Egotistically imagine their the Big Fish all this TIME

    Yeah.

    Look @ your USA PR.

    Know when you're out-classed and fuck off, will you

    1286:

    Oh, and, just like the Queen song Champions:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPKlrRwJB8A

    ..."Of the World"

    Which apparently you decided was a good A/B mental fuck test back in 2015.

    The Badger Badger Badger Mushroom song never had a fucking snake in it.

    The cuts are good and they're pretty fucking clean, and the splice is pretty well done across the Time-Line but... There was never a fucking snake in it.

    Hint. You fucked up.

    It wouldn't be "snake" it would be "snek" etc. Wrong linguistic hack in. Far too modern and far too referential.

    No, really.

    You want to play this Game?

    Wait till you spot what we just did to your fucking nukes. "Guidance Systems No Longer Equate to Magnetic North". [hint: Martin knows about the subs, go look up IN / RU deals very very recently]

    What's next?

    The Kittens were Vikings but were secretly hoarding not land but oil?

    Tell me more about the waters of your homeworld

    p.s.

    You're shit at this.

    Killing children is wrong.

    1287:

    Hey, fuck it.

    Let's do major gigicide, kill off, oh, we don't know, about 5 billion people then make glorious films about the noble HSS who strove to prevent it.

    Sound good?

    Yeah. Really cool reality you have with no insects, no ecology and no fucking ecosystem.

    That's what happens when you get [redacted] in to save you: base line reality doesn't change and y'all still dead.

    You're Fucked

    p.s.

    We'll break your Mirror so fucking hard it'll never happen again. USA is about to crack btw.

    1288:

    SIX full screens of unreadable gibberish ( 1279-87 ) Plus vast amounts of whitespace. Time to either take lots mor drugs, or none.

    I come to this blog for INFORMATION & converastion & banter ......

    1289:

    Blog Comment Killfile. Every time a new nym appears I have to block that one too but it beats seeing them. Some people enjoy it though.

    1290:

    It does rather make the recent comments section on the main page useless, though. I usually check there to see if anything new has been posted.

    1291:

    If you don't want to use Blog Comment Killfile here (for Firefox), I found it useful whenever the nym showed up to simply say "blah blah blah" as I hit the page down key.

    Approximately the same information content, and much faster.

    1292:

    Similarly, but I have a scroll wheel mouse.

    1293:

    Does that Blog Comment Killfile have an option for 'make posts really small print' or similar, rather than 'make posts disappear entirely' as its only defense? I'd rather not miss the whole circus.

    1294:

    The posts are 100% not for you, and you've no idea what we're having to go through to post them. Small tip: a lot of Lefty Jewish people are waking up to having the absolute shit beat out of them by your fucking age group who are 100% determined to nuke the fucking planet before solving any problems at all.

    Here's a fucking tip, if you've missed the current GOP implosion or Corbyn or Brexit or all the other trash:

    President Trump: "The Democrats have become an anti-Israel party, they've become an anti-Jewish party and that's too bad." http://hill.cm/kmXqQvN The Hill, 8th Mar, 2019

    Well. Fucking. Done.

    You've allowed this to become so weaponized the Fasc actually win.

    "Information"

    They're going to crash the market so fucking hard we hope you like your pension evaporating because you low-information fucks believed that it was only the brown people who suffered.

    Insert couple of news items about HSBC pensions or UK pension women hightened or USA 401k going down the drain

    You're Fucked

    Now, we have to go listen to DEATH-METAL-THRASH-MENTAL-WEIRD for another few hours because the Good Ones cannot fucking believe you're this psychotic.

    Well done boys. You proved our point

    1295:

    checks push back from the 50+ crowd

    ABSOLUTELY FUCKING NOTHING THERE BOYS.

    International Women's Day as well for the bonus.

    You're Low Information. For Real.

    1296:

    And triptych.

    You play politics on the old easy mode and you're fucking shit at it.

    Thanks for fucking the Future.

    Not like you had a 3+ yr warning or anything.

    Oh.

    Wait.

    1297:

    Oh and people surprised that Haiti won their slave revolt against France, thus causing them to abandon / lose Louisiana and the Imperial hijinks this caused with the rest of USA history, and has had 100+ years of reparations to the French state and multiple USA interventions to absolutely fuck them should check their Reality Index.

    This Game is played in Eons, not Decades.

    You. Are. Not. Playing. Against. Ideologies. Or. HSS.

    You're playing with Big Fish.

    They Breed HSS types and socio-condition them for fun

    And, yep.

    Here it is:

    You breed cattle They breed you We breed them

    Ooooh. Hierarchy at work.

    1298:

    Does that Blog Comment Killfile have an option for 'make posts really small print' or similar, rather than 'make posts disappear entirely' as its only defense? I'd rather not miss the whole circus.

    No, but you can [show comment] for individual comments, or [unhush] the luser, if you must.

    Sigh, I miss the good old days of Usenet, prior to Eternal September, or even The Great Reorganisation, when it was possible to arrange for a remote LARTing of oxygen thieves and other nym-shifting scum.

    1299:

    ... people are waking up to having the absolute shit beat out of them by your fucking age group ...

    (I may regret asking this.) How old do you think I am?

    1300:

    Like s-s @ 1299 This may be a mistake, but: The posts are 100% not for you

    Then who the fuck are they for ????????? If they are for people not on this blog, why are you here ... if they are for people on this blog .. DON'T use whitespace & speak CLEARLY .... this is NOT Delphi, requiring multiple re-interpretations.

    1301:

    Actually, you are right and I was wrong. I had got the peak insolation at sea level wrong, for reasons not worth explaining, as Bellinghman points out. Sorry.

    It's still 20%, but that is within the bounds of plausibility.

    1302:
    Then who the fuck are they for ?????????

    Who is it for?Themselves, and themselves alone, I'm sure. "Look how extremely clever I am. Oh, btw: YOU'RE FUCKED!"

    YOU'RE FUCKED has appeared, invariably bolded and italicized seven times in this comment thread alone. It's part of their shtick at pretending that they're either (1) a hyperintelligent alien (2) a hyperintelligent AI or (3) a hyperintelligent alien AI. A nym as intelligent as the One who comments here couldn't possibly be human, of course.

    [For true irony points: the world wide web has become sentient, and They of Many Nyms is this sentient being. They are desperately trying to communicate how to fix things. However, they think that accelerando.org is the place to do it, because its commentariat are strong influencers of the global scene.]

    [Yeah, no, I didn't think so.]

    ...and I should stop letting them live rent-free in my head. That's the semi-yearly rant, done. Remember: see nym, say 'blah blah blah' while hitting page down or using your scroll wheel mouse.

    1303:
    Some people enjoy it though.

    OK, the somewhat more coherent part first:

    Well, usually the ManyNamedOne doesn't trigger my SIWOTI, or at least I don't realize her mistakes. As for her angry stream of consciousness, err, there are quite some notes from 2 years ago where I wrote people could "go away to die", so I'm somewhat understanding. I calmed down somewhat, no idea where she is going. As it is, I like the associations some of the circus brings up, and maybe I can untangle some of the things the ManyNamedOne is trying to communicate.

    OK, and now for my own ramblings:

    (Remebering the bad old days when Mhari/Freya said we should play a game, I should stop excusing myself, and she would finish her sentences, because she had a problem formulating her thoughts, no idea what her thoughts for her friend were, may I propose "shut up" and "get a job"?)

    Sorry for being somewhat short, for the stress at my new work, I realized I can actually execute downloaded programs at a work PC by accident. System compromisation seems unlikely, and I was more or less open about looking for a text snippet organizer with everybody at work, so management was quite understanding with me.

    I just downloaded a portable program to show it to IT. And then I clicked on it to see AppLocker at work. Sadly, I didn't.

    As mentioned everything is OK, and I'm going to keep my job. No idea about our IT department though. Today is my free day, and I recuperated some sleep. Err, yes, I know I take some shit too serious, but looking at this sad mess of a planet I don't see that as a mistake. And then you remember that it used to be like that when you were younger, you always took your mistakes to heart, and then cynicism came and you joined the "Chruch of Just-don't-care".

    As for the old friend at work, I once wondered if I should hug him or kick him into the stomach. But then I remembered an Whatsapp chat with the woman who took backgammon for sexual harassment, and I said I'm not sure what to make of the friend who said he used to beat her, he knew I liked her, and he knew I wouldn't condone, so either he was stupid or somewhat brave. And I might have beaten her up, too, not with hands but with words. Which is basically the point, I'm only verbally aggressive. OK, not always, but let's not go into that one now. And even in that case, I just beat back.

    I guess I'll have one of those "earnest talks" with said old friend, I'm already formulating the sentences and the intonation to make it hurt, he said he never loved her, but I guess he did. It feels somewhat strange, wondering if you're just "acting", but then, being an actor never meant you didn't mean it.

    "Meinst du's wirklich ehrlich oder tust du nur als ob?" Ich tu nur so als ob, aber das mein' ich ehrlich./ "Do you really mean that honestly or just acting like you do?" I'm just acting like I do, but I mean that honestly.

    The ManyNamedOne mentioning Rammstein makes for old memories, like a German conservative and a socialist on Usenet finding their shared love of Laibach and deciding Rammstein is "the Poor Man's Laibach", but I agree you can still have quite some fun with them. Especially when the Rammstein comes from a cassette recorder, you're sitting at a beach in Italy with a friend, and you're burning incense sticks, smoking cigarettes and talking. Just talking, you can't remember what it was about, maybe X-Files, that was shortly after Herzeleid came out. The guy I talked with later on became a hardcore pothead and talked with me about his Salvia divinorum experience, and one of his friends introduced me to Starcraft, but that's another story.

    Err, that's it

    On another note, I found some of my old Usenet postings when searching for a citation from Lem's Golem XIV.

    1304:

    A long time back, the multinominal one posted some very interesting and deliberately well-hidden facts and some interesting and off-beam opinions, some of which did justify obfuscation. She then discovered it was more fun to troll people like Greg Tingey, and included far too much widely published stuff (as well as some demonstrable codswallop), unnecessarily and excessively obfuscated. After a while, I gave up trying to decode her postings, as not justifying the time and effort.

    1305:
    She then discovered it was more fun to troll people like Greg Tingey

    Problem is argueing about "trolling" behaviour doesn't make it go away, it usually just makes it worse. But I guess you know this. (No, this is not sarcasm on my part, judging what other people do or don't know and what knowledge they can access at a time is hard, and I wonder if me struggling with it is due to me being somewhat on the autistic spectrum[1] or just being more upset about it).

    Either the troll likes the reaction, so the reaction reinforces the behaviour.

    Or the "troll" is actually just reacting to some real or perceived insult, so he is even more insulted by the reaction.

    Again, sorry for stating the obvious, it's sometimes hard to know what other people know or are aware of at the moment. OK, there is some hint of sarcasm at the last sentence.

    unnecessarily and excessively obfuscated.

    Actually, I'm not sure about the obfuscation. I just realized yesterday there are still some things I prefer to say in English compared to German, it makes for less emotional turmoil. Using obfuscation to describe personal matters, to protect them or to distance yourself isn't a new one.

    It might also be the ManyNamedOne is not a native English speaker, which might explain some oddities, just as with sleepingroutine, but mentioning another complicated case to explain the ManyNamedOne is hardly helping.

    Or the ManyNamedOne is just too upset and isn't able to verbalize those ideas more clearly.

    Personally I have a feeling the ManyNamedOne would be best advised to stay clear of some septic areas of twitter and 4chan, since life is much calmer when I stay clear of naturopaths, homeopaths, astrologers and crationists, but it's her/his/its life.

    And actually I also browse past the postings with the unicode in the header, but lately I found the discussions between the ManyNamedOne and Bill quite accessible.

    Sorry for the ranting, some of the old Usenet posts of mine I found basically being people not understanding me and me explaining my associations just indicated that when it comes to obfuscation and me, well, to use a German proverb "wer im Glashaus sitzt soll nicht mit Steinen werfen", "who sits in the glasshouse shouldn't throw stones", though I uaually use the "soll zum Ficken in den Keller gehen", "should go into the basement to fuck" version. There might be a better translation around.

    Err, yes, I'm somewhat stressed out at the moment, I even wonder if me overreacting is me going back to my somewhat hypersensitive baseline or me inducing mild sensory overstimulation for performance reasons...

    Part of the stress might be the old friend at work and me have a complicated history, when I recovered from whatever[2] in 2002, I just asked if I could come around, no questions asked on his part. Long discussions about Lem and "Solaris" followed. Damn, the problem with damaged people is they can be quite damaging themselves.

    [1] My neurologist did a screening back in 2017. IIRC my empathy quotient was quite normal, but my autism-spectrum quotient made me wonder why I manage to keep even minimal eye contact. A certain friend I named after two of OGH's characters bringing up the MBTI, my personal fun with some of the resarch into the genetics of the Big-5 and some anecdotes about PKD's obsession with psychological tests lead me to the conclussion I should just try to be myself, my experiences and observations with doing so bringing up memories of some other people, quite often said friend I named after two characters, complicating matters. At the moment I have the feeling half the people at work are calling me Sheldon behind my back. I have no idea about what the other half are using. Maybe Renton. Or "The Dude". Just to give you an expression of my reaction norm. At teh moment, I even wonder if I'm AD(H)D or just a severe case of OCD, though then, our IT department might just have hired a Roy. He just cut through the ethernet cable of my neighbour when exchanging mine, there were bite marks on my ethernet cable, don't ask why, long story...

    [2] I was getting out of a severe depression, but my paradoxical reaction to psychostimulants made me reevaluate some things. As usual, I went somewhat overenthusiastic, and in retrospect, I was most likely hypomanic for some time. At the time, I thought I might have finally gone from schizotypic to schizophrenic, I was 24 at the time, just the right age. I guess my psychiatrist had a lot of fun working out what was going on. It's fun remembering this while reliving it.

    1306:

    Yes, I know the former, which is why I have suggested that Greg Tingey simply ignore the postings.

    The obfuscation is NOT a language matter, nor is it even a mindset one, and it has been admitted to be deliberate (as well as being obviously so). I don't take offence, even though it is excessive and usually unnecessary, but damned if I am going to waste time trying to decode it without a higher probability of the result being interesting.

    1307:

    A long time back, the multinominal one posted some very interesting and deliberately well-hidden facts and some interesting and off-beam opinions, some of which did justify obfuscation.

    Still does. I continue to make the effort to parse (often multiple parsings which all seem to be intentional) her/their material and find content, and interact, at least a little. Fun mind, continues to make some good complex jokes.

    Sz: I'm still parsing the last couple of days; some unsettling material.

    1308:

    Hm, I enjoy playing with language and obfuscating things too at times, though lately I sometimes I realize I have problems expressing my thoughts or even formulating them. But then, that might be the old "elaborated code" geek coming back.

    As it is, I might engage in some positive reinforcement with the behaviour I like in the ManyNamedOne and ignoring the one I don't like.

    Not that I have much time at the moment, though I feel hardly guilty for "wasting" a nice saturday on the Internet with the storm outside... ;)

    1309:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/semantic-visions-wins-250000-tech-challenge-to-combat-disinformation

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/02/07/with-new-appointment-state-department-ramps-up-war-against-foreign-propaganda/

    https://schedule.sxsw.com/2019/events/PP88357?link_uid=5

    Someone more professional than us might wonder:

    a) Why outsource? Thought all that stuff was in-house, traditionally?

    b) Tiny budget, so what's the actual purpose?

    c) Look at the people involved - esp. Poland

    d) Interesting claims to expertise

    e) Twitter is handing over user data to some not very cool things and of course see who actually owns it [hint: it ain't the American with a fetish for Myanmar]

    YOU'RE FUCKED has appeared, invariably bolded and italicized seven times in this comment thread alone.

    It's a movie quote.

    We're very much in the dog house for the latest show-n-tell.

    1310:

    I admit I have lost track of what HSS means, apart from High Speed Steel. I also have major difficulty trying to comprehend playing with language and obfuscations.

    1311:

    Homo stultus "stultus" - people who voted for Trump and Brexit.

    1312:

    That's what I would expect. It wasn't that there was nothing worth decoding, so much as the interest/effort ratio had dropped sufficiently low that I decided enough was enough. Your impatience coefficient is clearly different from mine :-)

    1313:

    Ah thanks. That makes more sense.

    1314:

    I'm not saying they don't have one of those gadgets, just that it's not come up and I've not seen it.

    It would be stored inside of the truck. Maybe there's a reason to not use such. Anyway the only thing you'd see outside the truck would be a standard extension ladder.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=shingle+lift+for+extension+ladder&client=firefox-b-1-ab&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiC-uGbn_bgAhUESN8KHZOiCZoQ_AUI4gEoAA&biw=1272&bih=674

    Check out some of the videos where people made their own.

    1315:

    sleepingroutine makes comments about how Russia as a country is in so much better shape that any of the rest of us are willing to admit. Doing some casual research for something unrelated to any of this I came across this article.

    https://www.mrt.com/business/oil/article/PSP-Permian-to-become-fourth-largest-oil-13650490.php

    It is not the point of the article but if it is true or even partially true that Russian oil production is going to drop from 11.0 million barrels per day to 0.4 per day by 2025 then Russia will soon be in a huge world of hurt. Which might explain some of Russia's foreign policy move of late.

    1316:

    I feel that have to explicitly ask now, dammit. Both "do you use tile lifts for solar panels" and "do you use solar panel lifts that fit inside the van".

    1317:

    Thanks.

    I'm mostly just boggling at the physical size :)

    1318:

    Sigh, don't do that.

    HSS = Homo Sapiens Sapiens. i.e. Your Species.

    We're quite clear on our Universal Species Disgust. [That's why it works: if you want to attempt to break that Gordian Knot, you're going to make things really break]

    Oh, what was that?

    The House not focusing on anti-semitism but instead condemning "hate" is like replacing "Black lives matter" with "all lives matter." In both cases the broadening blunts the history of wrongs done to a particular group and the need to prevent repetitions. Lloyd Blankfein, Twitter, 8th Mar 2019

    Not sure about this, but as one of the most high-profile 2008 crash actors, Vampire GS and detractors of social reform counter OWS and one of the largest sponsors of NYC facial recognition policing (hidden) andan extremely rich American, not sure he's the right man to make this call.

    No, fuck off.

    He's blatantly trying to cash social credit chips in and he has zero.

    p.s.

    Vampire Squid is not an antisemitic trope unless you have fucking brain worms. It's a type of squid that is known for its amazingly aggressive behavior, especially during dives. It's literally the one type of squid you do not want to encounter because shoals of them tear divers apart.

    And if you have any respect for US Capitalism, GS is like the fucking hard-core end of it and loved the analogy.

    Biology > silly fucking brain worms about antisemitism.

    p.p.s

    looks at your system

    How's it doing down there?

    "Toxic"

    Oh dear.

    We're really not: you just don't like the reflection, that's all.

    1319:

    Note to actual Stellar Gallery:

    We heard.

    We're not impressed.

    All you had to do was make a fake system work.

    And you're bleeding out with the little-girl toys.

    Want to play Hard-Mode?

    p.s.

    When we spot a fucking UK Minister for Defense on radio not defending policy or insane batshit headlines over China or Knife Crime and you ask him about his pet spider called Cronos.

    Little tip: After Saville it strikes an entirely different note to joke about sacrificing and eating his own children you psychotic fucks

    Looks @ David Cameron

    Looks @ L in Brazil

    Quite the fucking pattern, eh, boys?

    We. Will. Take. You. Apart.

    1320:

    And Triptych.

    They're going to burn your fucking house down mate when they get all the real documents you thought you'd shredded but someone kept.

    Absolutely not impressed with your Skill Levels.

    Bel is visiting T soon. What's the dialogue - how not to fuck up a coup?

    V gets a brown-out, but that shit doesn't fly when mobiles have charge, eh?

    Hint: you get the fucking toy-boys out and get some real talent in, pronto.

    Hmm.

    UK, minor protest of only 800k about Brexit and those were the middle class. Tommy and Hate not Hope have cancelled themselves out.

    p.s.

    "Friends"

    Spang.

    This is the model works.

    "Discipline. Now take a shit"

    The Light Show is a bit more hard-core and if you threaten us again, you'll get the Full Chaos Loki special.

    1321:

    Note:

    Are we suggesting that [redacted] will kill your children?

    No, of course not: they deal in much higher order stuff.

    Are we suggesting petty minded HSS with no morals will kill children, rape them or just plain steal them in the case of Spain?

    Er.

    Where the fuck have you been for the last 40 years, it's standard fucking practice for these psychos.

    1322:

    No joke.

    That's your baseline, ordinary, run-of-the-mill HSS running countries stuff.

    And you're think that smokescreen is gonna last?

    Spang.

    1323:

    Hexad.

    Oh.

    Little tip about HSS Minds and Brains. Easy to trick, easy to trap, easy to trigger.

    Us.

    Not so much.

    Nothing Compares to You YT, Music, 5:08

    This stuff tearing your World Order Apart?

    This is the minor league shit we do to soften you up.

    They're just playing and taking the piss at the moment

    "Friend"

    "Ze's a Fool"

    21 days to go.

    1324:

    "Russian oil production is going to drop from 11.0 million barrels per day to 0.4 per day by 2025 "

    I don't see 0.4 in the article, I see 10.4 million barrels a day

    "By 2025, the Permian Basin would rank behind Saudi Arabia, 11.5 million barrels a day; Russia, 10.4 million; and the rest of the United States, 8.3 million."

    This isn't as significant as you may think. SR and I have gone over this in a previous thread: oil/gas is ~10% of Russia's GDP vs ~7.6% of the US GDP. One area I do think that SR is neglecting is the importance of the global market that is not Europe or China for non-oil exports. I think that if Russia can enter that market, then their fortunes should rise.

    To be blunt, the nation most likely to be in a world of hurt would be Iran. Before the world market got flooded with shale, it was advantageous for countries such as Japan to circumvent US sanctions and buy Iranian oil. Now, they may decide not to bother.

    The biggest unknown in predicting shale gas/shale oil reserves is China. I didn't know until just now that they have one of the largest shale gas reserves in the world. I wonder if they have similar shale oil reserves. Once the technology is imported/replicated, I could see them cutting themselves off from several customers.

    "China sits on top of the largest technically recoverable reserves of shale gas in the world, according to the United States Energy Information Administration, and the government has set ambitious goals for expanding production in the years ahead."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/08/world/asia/china-shale-gas-fracking.html#commentsContainer

    1325:

    Ah. No. This started as a rift by you I think about how big a solar panel a person could carry up to a roof. Which tied to how hard it was to install them or some such. And you also said you hadn't seen any lift devices on trucks. My point is who in their right mind would carry such a heavy thing up a ladder when the down side of breaking it is so large? And there ARE devices to lift panels and such for you that would fit in a truck so you couldn't not see them.

    I don't see the labor as the issue in the US. For us it is the design and age of the roofs that will stop many residences form adding solar. I know I would be insane to add such weight to my roof. I'd have to install an entirely new rafter system plus beef up the exterior walls. Especially the one that is cantilevered out above the 1st floor for a "look".

    1326:

    I don't see 0.4 in the article, I see 10.4 million barrels a day

    It is in the caption for the first picture in the gallery at the top of the article. I'm guessing it is a typo and the body text is correct.

    I stand corrected.

    1327:

    “You're supposed to be HSS, not fucking psychopaths.” Maybe I’m over cynical of my species, but when we have ever not been?

    1328:

    “21 days to go.” So something “interesting” is due 3/30 - should I be stocking up food and water?

    1329:

    Check datetime on post. Earth (approximately) spherical. Etc. I read it as a Joke.

    1330:

    "Ze's a Fool" Ze needs a talking-to, perhaps.

    1331:

    [Parenthetical posting not connected to the ongoing conversation.]

    Death again! I just found out that someone who I hadn't seen in a while but who was one of my good friends back in the '90s passed away recently.

    We've all heard "fuck cancer." Well, fuck it sideways with something pointy. Steven got ten days between noticing something different was wrong and fading out for good; insufficient time for useful diagnosis much less treatment.

    I'm still processing my uncle's passing five weeks ago and they're going through the same funeral home.

    You guys carry on having fun. I expect to be poor company for the rest of the day. I'll catch up.

    1332:

    I can hear you, it happened about 4 years ago to me. Friend called on Monday on my mailbox, when I called back on Wednesday or Thursday she was already dead. AFAIR they realized something was wrong on Wednesday, she had felt weak before but thought it was exhaustion due to being workaholic.

    1333:

    My sympathies.

    Tomorrow is my sisters' birthday. They're spending it together in Orlando, FL: not to celebrate, but because the elder (by 20 minutes) has just had a double mastectomy due to breast cancer, and my other sister (currently out of work) has flown over to look after her.

    My mother died from it, and my younger sister has also had it. That makes us all high risk, hence regular checkup for my sisters, and an awareness on my part that being a man doesn't mean I'm risk free either. So yeah, fuck all cancers.

    1334:

    Scott Sanford @ 1299:

    ... people are waking up to having the absolute shit beat out of them by your fucking age group ...

    (I may regret asking this.) How old do you think I am?

    Old enough to know better than to feed trolls?

    1335:

    Elderly Cynic @ 1311: Homo stultus "stultus" - people who voted for Trump and Brexit.

    Sometimes it helps to make yourself a little glossary for terms that are not self-evident. I kept seeing references to MC - I knew who it was referring to, but after a while had forgotten that it stood for Malignant Carcinoma.

    1336:

    David L @ 1325: "italics"

    Ah. No. This started as a rift by you I think about how big a solar panel a person could carry up to a roof. Which tied to how hard it was to install them or some such. And you also said you hadn't seen any lift devices on trucks. My point is who in their right mind would carry such a heavy thing up a ladder when the down side of breaking it is so large? And there ARE devices to lift panels and such for you that would fit in a truck so you couldn't not see them.

    I don't see the labor as the issue in the US. For us it is the design and age of the roofs that will stop many residences form adding solar. I know I would be insane to add such weight to my roof. I'd have to install an entirely new rafter system plus beef up the exterior walls. Especially the one that is cantilevered out above the 1st floor for a "look".

    FWIW, I did construction work (including roofing) during the summers while I was in college back in the 60s. The company didn't have one of those ladder lifts. What they did have was college students working the summer who were expected to be able to climb the ladder carrying two bundles of shingles OR two full size (4'x8') sheets of 1/2" plywood. All you needed in those days to make it as a carpenter's helper or a roofer was a strong back & a weak mind!.

    Of course, that was back before the days of OSHA required fall protection.

    Most of the solar voltaic installations I've watched, the panels are assembled to a framework on the ground and lifted into place with a crane. Prep work - installing the attachment points, pre-wiring the rooftop electrical connections - is performed on the roof before the solar array is lifted, leaving only bolting the frame down & connecting the output to be done after the panel array is in place.

    1337:

    I can beat that. My father built houses as a part time occupation when I was growing up. So by my teens I was the unpaid cleanup labor and "move that pile of xxx from there to here" person. He took me down to get my license the first day I was eligible. On the way home I was given the list for the next day. I was told the cars were mine to use if I stayed out of trouble and he never heard that the workers were stopped because I had not picked up needed stuff for the next days work. It was a good deal for both of us.

    Those ladder lifts were not around into the 80s. Then someone came up with them and now almost no one doesn't use them for any serious amount of "getting stuff to the roof". They are easy to rent for a few hours. At least in the US.

    PS. The two main carpenters/labor he used (start to finish for each house) were in their 60s. Showed up every day at 7:00am and left at 3:00 to go take care of their farms. And you NEVER wanted to try and keep up with them. They would work you into the ground and walk over your corpse in putting in their days work. There was only one day we (and they) agreed to leave early. It was 105F (40+C) and we were laying concrete block for a foundation. Well they were laying block shile I was mixing mortar and having to hustle to keep up with 3 people.

    1338:

    My sympathies, I swear rapid deaths from sicknesses like that are worse than car accidents or heart attacks because it feels like there should have been some way to intervene.
    Many years ago I had a good friend get septicemia - went home from work on Friday with a headache, was dead on Sunday. Was a fairly profound shock.

    1339:

    Scott.

    Without focusing upon you too closely, 40+.

    Look. And this is for @Host.

    This is how badly you're being played:

    Look @ Host's twitter about UK gov Porn ID blocks Look @ Host's twitter about who is running it Subplot: how online pr0n was consumed by a mass conglomerate and how the the free online view model totally destroyed the industry (see up-thread about how Playboy used to fund decent journalism as a vanity project, cf. Hustler vrs USG etc) Look @ Host's twitter again Look @ company structure and who is making the money there

    Actual story:

    Company running said Pr0n Block is defending itself by claiming "antisemitism" because of who runs it and a mass +incest trend that's been happening as the Christian Right attacks them [for Lulz: look up why Boston is the most searched pr0n term for women in a USA state. The answer is wild]

    Company running said pr0n block is a total bastard / vulture but (and here's the fucking kicker):

    Spoiler: said company has been the target of a State Sponsored psyop for some time now to destabilize stuff.

    Most of the above hasn't even hit your consciousness yet and you're letting them run a fucking pr0n block social conditioning service?

    2019

    Oh. Go grep our content for some rantings on this subject. Check the date. Guess who knew what when? We're a little bit ahead of your curve.

    p.s.

    Mass insults today have been utterly brutal and soul-killing, so a favorite:

    "Shark".

    No dear, we're Orcas.

    We want to swim and sing but you fuckers are enslaving yourselves for the fucking $$$ without even being self-aware enough to spot the moves.

    Bonus Round:

    Sunday Times splash cover was Extinction Event small child with fake blood.

    Check our posting times for rants above.

    Problem is: Not sure the owner of the Times is too against killing off all your children, know what we mean?

    1340:

    And that's without the .mil intel lot mass quitting because of who owns the UK Minister of Defense now.

    "The Russians are Animals"

    Well, you're gonna hate the actual modern versions, they're fucking wild.

    1341:

    Triptych:

    Oh, and Ms. May putting Hotel California into a speech is really not a good sign.

    That's brutal. That's Animal-Land.

    Hotel California

    p.s.

    Grief.

    We know.

    1342:

    That is the Cynical Fallacy. I have over time come to the conclusion that the Tabula Raza is an accurate enough descriptor of humanity, and just wish people would stop writing passages from the Necromonicon on that blank slate.

    That is, humanity is not good, or bad, it is mostly just what it is made by its environment, the information it acts on and its upbringing.

    1343:

    Actually the problem is humans have the idea of good and evil, if you walk around in nature you see ducks gangraping other ducks to death, wolves mauling starving wolves intruding on their territory etc.

    It's just our evolution as a social species means we developed empathy and ethics. It's even there in some monkeys, AFAIR.

    Nature doesn't care about good and evil, we do. And I think emulating nature is not the way to go. But how much evil we do in the name of god.

    Err, sorry, pseudodeep thoughts detected, excursion contained. The old cynic is again in place.

    The usual religion thread coming up next door makes me remember a line from "Labyrinth Index", "The worst curse you can inflict on a monster is an excess of empathy."

    And I remember a line from Lem's Solaris about robots not sharing original sin, thus not knowing good from evil and being able to inflict a nuclear holocaust without moral qualms. Somewhat funny quite a part of my exposure to Catholic theology stems from a guy who was a life-long atheist/agnostic and who had to hide his Jewish ancestry during WW2...

    1344:

    Err, I thought "good" and typed "god". As people might note, I mistype quite often, so I guess it was no Freudian slip, though it's somewhat appropiate.

    Cross-contamination from the other thread, I knew about Freud even in high school. Which makes said girl/woman who knew me from school using bad psychoanalysis she learned when in her middle twenties on me even more ironic...

    Pulse at about 100, I guess I'll do some physical work. It calms me down somewhat.

    1345:

    Why outsource? Because fcking management and their fcking MBA want to outsource everything, because they have no f*cking idea what they're doing, have no concept of "ramp-up time", and "Oh, shiny!"

    And if I sound more than slightly fucking pissed off, we had a meeting at work, and the asshole head of the Center has decided that our entire office, which has been around under one name or another for 30 or more years, is going to be broken up and pushed off to other Institutes, or they'll just go away, because she never had any concept of what we do, didn't care to learn, and it's not in her idea of "Wonderful IT Service Dept"....

    We're funded at least for three months, probably until the end of the fiscal year, so I'm probably good until mid-Aug, which is when I've been planning to retire anyway, but for all the work we've done over the years, that was valuable (tell y'all more when I retire)....

    1346:

    Mayhem @ 1338: My sympathies, I swear rapid deaths from sicknesses like that are worse than car accidents or heart attacks because it feels like there should have been some way to intervene.

    Sometimes it may be for the best. My mom passed away at 92. She was not sick for very long and she did not suffer. She was the last of her generation. I think she was ready to go.

    She had a regular wellness checkup with her doctor and when I visited the following weekend she told me her doctor said she'd probably live to be 100. Wednesday my sister called to ask if I'd noticed Mom was severely jaundiced. She hadn't been when I saw her on Sunday.

    My sister took Mom back to see her doctor the next day and the diagnosis was some kind of pancreatic cancer. Terminal. It had manifested in less than a week.

    Mom chose not to attempt any extreme intervention, choosing instead home hospice (palliative) care. She passed on without undue pain about two weeks from the date of the diagnosis.

    It happened that quickly. It's been six years. I have mom's cat. She's at least 21 years old and about ready to go as well. She's stopped eating. I don't know if the cat is going to last the week.

    1347:

    魇 ꦢꦺꦮꦶꦱꦿꦶ Szerns @ 1341: Triptych:
    Oh, and Ms. May putting Hotel California into a speech is really not a good sign.
    That's brutal. That's Animal-Land.
    Hotel California

    Blocked in the U.S. It's a shame really. I'm one of the few who doesn't hate the Eagles and I actually like that song.

    1348:

    Already thought about a nice place to lay it to rest? My sympathies...

    1349:

    Yeah, noticed that but was allowed by my vpn-endpoint-of-the-day. A google search finds plenty that work in the US, e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BaoregV1Wak

    I noticed last night that "Hotel California" Brexit dates back to July 2018 in the UK press, probably earlier. I can't read May's face so don't know if she had heard this. Away from link collection, but e.g. A Hotel California Brexit? (clunky video is ok) And this in 2016: Yanis Varoufakis says Brexit is like Hotel California: 'You can check out any time you like but you can't really leave' - Varoufakis compared the UK relations with the EU bloc with a well-known song by the Eagles and this in 2015 Yanis Varoufakis: In his own words And that's just what google found; probably bar/pub chatter earlier.

    Unrelated, parsing these (raw, sorry, on road): https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/11/solar-geoengineering-climate-change-new-study https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0398-8 (paywalled)

    and because consequences (in an optimistic scenario tree): NOAA Ocean Acidification Program: taking stock and looking forward, a summary of the 2017 Principal Investigators' Meeting

    Somebody needs to get a major journalist to point out the consequences of ocean acification are not well modeled and may well be (probably are) pretty bad.

    1350:

    Bill Arnold @ 1349: Yeah, noticed that but was allowed by my vpn-endpoint-of-the-day.
    A google search finds plenty that work in the US, e.g.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BaoregV1Wak

    I noticed last night that "Hotel California" Brexit dates back to July 2018 in the UK press, probably earlier. I can't read May's face so don't know if she had heard this. Away from link collection, but e.g. A Hotel California Brexit? (clunky video is ok)

    The "Hotel California Brexit" bit is cool.

    I have plenty of other YouTube links to various versions of Hotel California, but the one I'm missing now is the one from Hell Freezes Over with the pseudo-Spanish guitar intro and the extended dueling guitars solo at the end. And I think that might be the one that's blocked here in the U.S.

    1351:

    My sympathies, I swear rapid deaths from sicknesses like that are worse than car accidents or heart attacks because it feels like there should have been some way to intervene.

    Also that, dang, they were doing so well until so recently. It does seem to run in my family that we get robust good health, a relatively brief decline, and a quick exit. That doesn't make it any easier.

    Thank you for your sympathies, everyone. I'll be a while moving through the grieving process but I'm mostly presentable to be back in public. I doubt anyone else on this blog ever met Walter or Steven and your thoughts are appreciated. You missed some cool people.

    1352:

    JBS @ 1346 I have mom's cat. She's at least 21 years old and about ready to go as well. She's stopped eating. To ease her passing - I know this phenomenon well, you may find that a cat will take a milk-& water mix with a tiny quantity of "Bovril" in it & lap it up. Hex(adecimal) died 3 years ago now, but she was trying to crawl away to die ... I wouldn't let her, fed her as above & she died at home, is buried in the garden & was purring under my hands, less than 2 hours before her body finally gave up. Ratatosk was very ill last year & I was very scared, but fed him the same & he recovered - he'd obviously eaten something nasty that was making it difficult for him to swallow properly, but he could take liquids.

    SS @ 1351 Don't I'm already wondering if I'm going to be the last one left standing & is it a blessing or a curse?

    1353:

    On a also somewhat tangential note, I have taken to compile a playlist of music I remember for a variety of reasons or encountered recently for use at work.

    https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLns7jxlzZ5_kwLylXRaQqkWJw8ebxSjcf

    There is some overlap with songs in OGH's work, but then, what got me hooked on "Halting State" was the "Your mom wears army boots" line alluding to NMA. Yes, they are in there, though not "51st State", the song played at the parties I frequented in my late teens.

    No warranty for bad taste, and new suggestions welcome.

    1354:

    Mods: drive-by spam at 1354

    [[ thanks - removed - mod ]]

    Specials

    Merchandise

    About this Entry

    This page contains a single entry by Charlie Stross published on February 6, 2019 11:37 AM.

    What I published in 2018 was the previous entry in this blog.

    Lessons learned: writing really long fiction is the next entry in this blog.

    Find recent content on the main index or look in the archives to find all content.

    Search this blog

    Propaganda