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Playtime is over

So I've had a week now for the outcome of last Tuesday's US election to sink in, and I've been doing some thinking and some research, and my conclusion is that either I'm wearing a tinfoil hat or things are much, much worse than most people imagine.

Nearly four years ago I wrote about the Beige Dictatorship, and predicted:

Overall, the nature of the problem seems to be that our representative democratic institutions have been captured by meta-institutions that implement the iron law of oligarchy by systematically reducing the risk of change. They have done so by converging on a common set of policies that do not serve the public interest, but minimize the risk of the parties losing the corporate funding they require in order to achieve re-election. And in so doing, they have broken the "peaceful succession when enough people get pissed off" mechanism that prevents revolutions. If we're lucky, emergent radical parties will break the gridlock (here in the UK that would be the SNP in Scotland, possibly UKIP in England: in the USA it might be the new party that emerges if the rupture between the Republican realists like Karl Rove and the Tea Party radicals finally goes nuclear), but within a political generation (two election terms) it'll be back to oligarchy as usual.

Well, I was optimistic. The tea party radicals have gone nuclear, but I wasn't counting on a neo-Nazi running the White House, or on the Kremlin stepping in ...

Let me explain.

A few years ago, wandering around the net, I stumbled on a page titled "Why Japan lost the Second World War". (Sorry, I can't find the URL.) It held two photographs. The first was a map of the Pacific Theater used by the Japanese General Staff. It extended from Sakhalin in the north to Australia in the south, from what we now call Bangladesh in the west, to Hawaii in the east. The second photograph was the map of the war in the White House. A Mercator projection showing the entire planet. And the juxtaposition explained in one striking visual exactly why the Japanese military adventure against the United States was doomed from the outset: they weren't even aware of the true size of the battleground.

I'd like you to imagine what it must have been like to be a Japanese staff officer. Because that's where we're standing today. We think we're fighting local battles against Brexit or Trumpism. But in actuality, they're local fronts in a global war. And we're losing because we can barely understand how big the conflict is.

(NB: By "we", I mean folks who think that the Age of Enlightenment, the end of monarchism, and the evolution of Liberalism are good things. If you disagree with this, then kindly hold your breath until your head explodes. (And don't bother commenting below: I'll delete and ban you on sight.))

The logjam created by the Beige Dictatorship was global, throughout the western democracies; and now it has broken. But it didn't break by accident, and the consequences could be very bad indeed.

What happened last week is not just about America. It was one move—a very significant one, bishop-takes-queen maybe—in a long-drawn-out geopolitical chess game. It's being fought around the world: Brexit was one move, the election and massacres of Dutarte in the Philippines were another, the post-coup crackdown in Turkey is a third. The possible election of Marine Le Pen (a no-shit out-of-the-closet fascist) as President of France next year is more of this stuff. The eldritch knot of connections between Turkey and Saudi Arabia and Da'esh in the wreckage of Syria is icing on top. It's happening all over and I no longer think this is a coincidence.

Part of it is about the geopolitics of climate change (and mass migration and water wars). Part of it is about the jarring transition from an oil-based economy (opposed by the factions who sell oil and sponsor denial climate change, from Exxon-Mobil to the Kremlin) to a carbon-neutral one.

Part of it is the hellbrew of racism and resentment stirred up by loss of relative advantage, by the stagnation of wages in the west and the perception that other people somewhere else are stealing all the money—Chinese factories, Wall Street bankers, the faceless Other. (17M people in the UK have less than £100 in savings; by a weird coincidence, the number of people who voted for Brexit was around 17M. People who are impoverished become desperate and angry and have little investment in the status quo—a fancy way of saying they've got nothing to lose.)

But another big part of the picture I'm trying to draw is Russia's long-drawn out revenge for the wild ride of misrule the neoconservatives inflicted on the former USSR in the 1990s.

Stripped of communism, the old guard didn't take their asset-stripping by neoliberals during the Clinton years lying down; they no more morphed into whitebread Americans than the Iraqis did during the occupation. They developed a reactionary playbook; a fellow called Alexander Dugin wrote The Foundations of Geopolitics, and it's been a set text in the Russian staff college for the past two decades. A text that proposes a broad geopolitical program for slavic (Russian) dominance over Asia, which is to be won by waging a global ideological war against people like us. "In principle, Eurasia and our space, the heartland Russia, remain the staging area of a new anti-bourgeois, anti-American revolution. ... The new Eurasian empire will be constructed on the fundamental principle of the common enemy: the rejection of Atlanticism, strategic control of the USA, and the refusal to allow liberal values to dominate us. This common civilizational impulse will be the basis of a political and strategic union."

I don't want to sound like a warmed-over cold warrior or a swivel-eyed conspiracy theorist. However, the authoritarian faction currently ascendent in Putin's Russia seem to be running their country by this book. Their leaders remember how the KGB (newly reformed last month) handled black propaganda and disinformation, and they have people who know how new media work and who are updating the old time Moscow rules for a new century. Trump's Russian connections aren't an accident—they may be the most important thing about him, and Russia's sponsorship of extreme right neo-fascist movements throughout Europe is an alarming part of the picture. China isn't helping, either: they're backing authoritarian regimes wherever they seem useful, for the same reason the US State Department under Henry Kissinger backed fascists throughout central and south America in the 1970s—it took a generation to fix the damage from Operation Condor, and that was local (at least, confined to a single continent).

Trying to defeat this kind of attack through grass-roots action at local level ... well, it's not useless, it's brave and it's good, but it's also Quixotic. With hindsight, the period from December 26th, 1991 to September 11th, 2001, wasn't the end of history; it was the Weimar Republic repeating itself, and now we're in the dirty thirties. It's going to take more than local action if we're to climb out of the mass grave the fascists have been digging for us these past decades. It's going to take international solidarity and a coherent global movement and policies and structures I can barely envisage if we're going to rebuild the framework of shared progressive values that have been so fatally undermined.

We haven't lost yet.

But if we focus too narrowly on the local context, we will lose, because there is a de facto global fascist international at work, they've got a game plan, they're quite capable of applying the methods of Operation Condor on a global scale, and if we don't work out how to push back globally fast there will be nobody to remember our graves.

889 Comments

1:

I think you're broadly right, but I think the important (and scary) factor of the 'de facto fascist international' is that it's not based on active co-operation. There's been no secret summit where Putin, Trump, Le Pen etc have all got together to plot this in the style of the Communist Internationals, they're all doing their own thing, and each one feeds into the rest as they trade off the similarities between each other. It's a useful idiot strategy - you don't have to fund your own operations in other countries, because you can always find someone foolish enough already there to do it for you, and you just have to nudge them in the right direction. They don't need briefings and controllers to make sure they keep up with the party line, as they're happy to say whatever they last heard at a 'controversial' think tank or support whatever line gets them on TV as a 'contrarian'.

2:

For some confirmation try Peter Pomerantsev - Nothing is true and everything is possible He describes a frightening society that really does fit with your visionn

3:

What I read you write is that what we're seeing in the US (Trump), UK (Brexit), maybe soon France (Front National) and Germany (AfD), Turkey (Erdogan) etc. ... is a controlled effort to undermine the liberal West?

I don't think you are right. I'm sure Russia's current elite would like to destabilise Europe (in fact, quite likely the UK's and Turkey's would as well), and quite possibly they had their favourite in the US presidential elections, and maybe even lent support to influence the outcome in their direction.

But I suspect that way of thinking, too, is in a way local thinking and trying to pin the unwelcome changes we're seeing in "our world" to a simple cause that is easy to understand and allegedly to control. But I would suggest that what is really happening is that the global sociocultural system (as I would call it ad hoc for lack of a better word) is shifting at least to a new equilibrium point, maybe even to a new mode.

Maybe that doesn't make sense right now and I don't want to spend too long on this post. The society in the Western world, specifically Europe (not sure about the US but I suspect there as well) is split. I live in London, but I was born on the continent. For me, turning the back to Europe is absolutely inconceivable. Nobody like me could think this way! But I must acknowledge that many many people, the vast majority in fact, has not had a similar liberal experience of that of the Erasmus generation (Erasmus the student exchange program). My parents and my sibling for example have not lived in another country. For them, people born with another language are still foreigners and strangers (and they do believe in the EU and don't vote far right, even).

People who have not lived or worked abroad don't really have emotional access to this nativism/nationalism-negating experience. Neither have people without homosexual friends. And it seems to me that that is now breaking out, or is pushed out by economic imbalances.

Of course this doesn't mean we have to reverse. But we need to acknowledge it, I think, before we can move against it.

4:

As Nick says, this feels more like a "rise of authoritarianism" as opposed to being a coordinated move which is "happening all over and I no longer think this is a coincidence".

I think the Russians would love to put into effect the strategy described and would love even more to take credit for it. But I suspect they are making little social media pushes and content to be seen to be pulling strings - yet without being actually in cahoots with Trump.

In other words, this is all a bit tin foil hat for me.

Now, if Trump starts changing the whole make up of the electoral college so it takes more than a 6M vote advantage for Democrats to win (currently 1M for Hilary iiRC) then I might be a bit more worried.

But I'm definitely listening to what you have to say...

5:

I think there's another side of this: it's not just the rise of fascism, but also the collapse of democratic institutions.

The power-brokers of the world have never been fond of democracy, and have always worked to erode it, more because they just wanted to get shit done than out of any true nefarious goal. Democracy is a TERRIBLY inefficient decision-making process.

But the problem is that its inefficiency is a feature- it forces consensus building and dialogue. At its best, reasoned discussion wins the day, and the best choice is made. That's an exception, the "happy path", while in practice democracy is more a system of horse-trading and compromise. That's not so bad. It still makes it hard to get things done- which is why power-brokers look to skirt its boundaries. We see things like the TPP- the contents of the treaty are less significant than how the sausage itself was made- in closed door sessions, negotiated between stakeholders that have, at best, a tenuous connection to the true constituents of a democratic nation.

This seems to be a natural decay of democratic systems- cronyism, closed-door negotiations, and fundamentally anti-democratic processes start to wield more power than the democratic system itself. Little changes and shortcuts accumulate, like the way a river undercuts its banks. From above, you see solid ground, but in reality, it's a thin overhang only held in place by tree roots and inertia, and one rainstorm can wash the whole thing away.

6:

I don't know, Charlie, you've been right so far but I keep hoping you've backed yourself into a kind of tunnel vision. Until persuaded otherwise I'm sticking with Piketty, that humans are just along for the ride on an immense blob of inanimate but nonetheless cytoplasmicly streaming money, which has its own gravitational rules like a coalescing asteroid field slowly becoming a ring system, with discernible patterns like interest exceeding income over deep time. Build a coalition to exploit that principle and it's like letting gravity be your friend, don't fight it, use it. Nature remains utterly indifferent to the endless mutations of evolutionary history, what survives, survives, truth and beauty be damned. I take comfort in the view that extreme authoritarianism really hasn't been able to outlast coordinated mass action over the recent couple of centuries.

7:

It may not be tightly controlled, but there is definitely coordination going on. Nigel Farange campaigned for Trump and Marion Le Pen recently invited Steve Bannon to work with the FN. And Bannon himself has said that he views Trump as part of a global populist movement.

I'd add that I agree with John Scalzi: "I don't find it coincidental that all this is happening as WWII passes from living memory."

8:

Hmm...

Not sure about that, the EU membership referendum, the UK labor party's most recent leadership (re)election, and the US election were nominally democratic processes but I'm not seeing a lot of consensus arising from them.

I think democracy kind of depends on the electorate being offered reasonable alternatives by people willing to talk about them in halfway adult language.

In or Out? North Korea and Switzerland are both outside the EU but you'd hardly describe their relationship in remotely the same terms so what the hell does "Out" mean and is it surprising that the cabinet are still divided over it?

Corbin or Smith? So that's return the candidate who the PLP have made it clear they either can't or won't work with (for the purposes of this discussion it doesn't really matter which) or uphold the party line by endorsing the preferred choice of the politburo.

Clinton or Trump? Not that I'd have hesitated for a heartbeat if I'd had a vote, but, well, Hillary's not really my idea of great presidential material...

Of course it's always possible that democracy has already been subverted and that asking us Bloody Stupid Questions, turning campaigns into playground arguments, and then watching the electorate divide itself between simmering resentment and gloating triumphalism in the aftermath is actually a deliberate strategy...

9:

A couple of observations: I am relatively sure the "elites" of New Labor and traditional Conservatives wanted HRC to win to shore them up against the outbreak of Brexit/UKIP/Old Labor/voters against the "civilized" bubble of the established order.

Two: before we congratulate ourselves too much on our good natures, part of our panic is about the effect of real global leveling. How comfortable are you, personally, about Western living standards falling towards a rising global mean? (You meaning everyone, not just Charlie.) Particularly if that global mean turns out to be environmentally/economically unsustainable.

Are the demographics turning so that vital areas of the United States are superseding "rusting" areas? Or are the rusting areas just ahead of a general trend? When the robots come for the jobs of the "enlightened" people, how will they react? Better than the shadowy mob of "working class" people who are being blamed right now for Trump?

I say this as someone who wants to see a light socialist future with as much respect for individual human rights as we can afford, given the likelihood of ecologic and social crisis in the near future.

10:

Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto was well aware the war was unwinnable for Japan. Most likely the Japanese government was as well but decided to go ahead to save face: http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB905.pdf

11:

Yes and no, on the one hand it's passing from memory, on the other its being ridiculously fetished, often by the Leave campaigners (I've lost count of the number of times I've seen someone say the EU is essentially a Nazi plot apparently without any irony).

12:

Until persuaded otherwise I'm sticking with Piketty, that humans are just along for the ride on an immense blob of inanimate but nonetheless cytoplasmicly streaming money, which has its own gravitational rules like a coalescing asteroid field slowly becoming a ring system, with discernible patterns like interest exceeding income over deep time.

These are not mutually exclusive possibilities; crude capitalism predates liberal democracy as we know it today, and the big lesson places like China and Singapore is that you can have a working modern capitalist system without democracy.

Old-school fascists tended to be rather bad at capitalism. But fascists are no more incapable of learning than anyone else.

13:

The interesting point on WW2 and the referendum is that some of the polling showed that the trend for the older you were, the more likely you were to support Leave broke down once it reached 75-80 year olds and above. (Disclaimer: this was getting into the realm of very small sample sizes, so margins of error were much bigger) What that suggests is that those who had memories of wartime, even as children, knew enough about it to not want to see it again. The post-war generation, raised on tales of how Britain won the war without seeing the cost of it were much more likely to think 'we won the war' was much more important than 'let's never have a war again'.

14:

Ironically enough I was sitting down to write a post from similar data but with different conclusions.

I'm not sure there's a global conspiracy. I think Farage and Gove (however much they'll hate been mentioned together) cooked up a plan for Brexit of "slam the establishment and hit the buzzwords and give them just enough to make them salivate and thus win the election on hot air and nothing else."

Those actually in power after the vote are finding just what a pile of manure they've got because although (however much I wish they didn't) they've got a clear mandate for Brexit, the shape of that mandate is completely unclear. The fine detail wouldn't be clear of course, unless the vote had been "100% hard Brexit, nothing else" but it's not clear if they should aim for hard Brexit, soft Brexit, if soft, a model like Norway, Switzerland, Canada or something else.

When Trump called his campaign "Brexit +++" he wasn't lying - he's long on slamming the establishment, hitting various buzzwords and really short on details. He has a few months to try and put something together of course but he's already pulled back on "we're just going to throw Hilary in jail" and "we're going to totally dismantle Obamacare" to my certainly knowledge.

There's a model for Le Pen, and for the AdF to follow but I'm not sure there's a global conspiracy to achieve it so much as a new tactic emerging, like TV changed elections, and whatever it was before that. The old parties aren't reacting well, but Trump used social media brilliantly and responded well to voter dissatisfaction in a way Clinton just didn't. Farage, Gove and Johnson scooped up people who wanted to stick it to the man in numbers and so on. Le Pen will do that too I suspect.

15:

Anecdotal data regarding what a clown show American politics has become:

1) Trump admits that if he had been able to buy the Buffalo Bills in 2014, he would have had better things to do with his time than running the Free World. (And owning the Bills is not like owning United or the Gunners; it's more like owning Newcastle or West Ham.)

2) In a way, American Democracy collapsed because Anthony Weiner showed his dick to a 15 year old girl.

16:

I like looking at this from a post-mortem point of view. Given a statement like "Brexit Britain is a global leader", what kind of world would be required for that to be true. You'd have to break up the bigger players.

Wresting France from the EU would make the EU a non-nuclear power and create a broken European coastline, just like Britain has traditionally liked it. Electing a divisive US president who is anti-Europe, and then supporting Calexit and NYexit, that'd make the US weaker and pitch the US and the EU against each other.

The worst part is that it's a self-fuelling mechanism. By breaking the UK away from the Union, the UK's interests change from a strong Union to preferring dealing with smaller countries of 50 million people. Which makes the UK want to break up the EU, the US, China, Russia, India, Japan, Indonesia, et al. And if they succeed, the broken up pieces will share that interest, increasing the pressure on the survivors.

From that perspective Farage's sidling up to Trump and Le Pen makes a lot of sense: they're the leaders most likely to weaken the US and the EU, respectively. Why else would a fanatically pro-British politician support foreign leaders?

17:

We need a global movement, but that will only grow from local grassroots campaigns. Clicktivism and letter writing wont cut it any more. Everybody who isnt a fascist, from the centre to the far left needs to wake up, unite and mobilise into a popular pluralist movement. We need to exploit european and global networks with new tactics and find charismatic spokespeople to lobby for us. The left can provide the framework and experience, the centre can provide the numbers.

It will be messy, difficult and unprecedented, but it is possible. It MUST be possible.

18:

because although (however much I wish they didn't) they've got a clear mandate for Brexit

Let's be very clear, they don't have a clear mandate for Brexit.

Even leaving aside a margin of 2% being within the margin of error for polling, the vote was rigged two ways. Firstly, in the immediate previous referendum the vote was available to those aged 16-and-over; indeed, the electoral commission was considering extending the general franchise to 16 year olds. Because the pro-brexit voting demographic skewed old, if the 16-18 age group had voted, it's likely to have been hung, or a loss for "out". Secondly, over a million over-18 British Citizens registered to vote in general elections were disenfranchised because they happened to live in the EU. These people are generally encouraged to vote by conservative governments, because they tend to be affluent and conservative (at least in terms of how they vote in UK elections); for the Tories to then exclude them is just plain outrageous.

TLDR is if the Brexit referendum had been run on regular electoral rules, "Remain" would have won by a rather bigger margin than "Leave" did under the finagled rules that were applied.

And that's without considering the way the Leave campaign lied like rugs. "£350M a week goes to Europe that we could spend on the NHS" indeed.

19:

>>>and the big lesson places like China and Singapore is that you can have a working modern capitalist system without democracy.

I'm not sure about that.

Working modern capitalist system need fair competition between businesses. This requires the Rule of Law. Beyond just having capitalist friendly laws, they must be applied consistently to get fair competition.

I don't see how this can maintained for a significant length of time without democracy. Sure, you can have a benevolent government for a while, but the Iron Law of Bureaucracy will destroy it eventually.

20:

I don't agree that we need global action. If we crush the orange one in disgrace and claim back US, the rest will follow. Easier than waging war worldwide (occupy didn't succeed), already some grassroot base (Bernies), almost half of Congress, popular vote, lots of diversity. Obama will join.

21:
Even leaving aside a margin of 2% being within the margin of error for polling, the vote was rigged two ways. Firstly, in the immediate previous referendum the vote was available to those aged 16-and-over; indeed, the electoral commission was considering extending the general franchise to 16 year olds. Because the pro-brexit voting demographic skewed old, if the 16-18 age group had voted, it's likely to have been hung, or a loss for "out". Secondly, over a million over-18 British Citizens registered to vote in general elections were disenfranchised because they happened to live in the EU. These people are generally encouraged to vote by conservative governments, because they tend to be affluent and conservative (at least in terms of how they vote in UK elections); for the Tories to then exclude them is just plain outrageous.

Sorry Charlie, but you're wrong on both counts there. The 16-y/o franchise for the Scottish Indyref was set by the Scottish Parliament in the legislation that enabled the referendum. The Electoral Commission doesn't have the power to decide who qualifies for the franchise - that has to be set by primary legislation.

As to expats, as a British expat myself (albeit living in the US not the EU) we were most certainly included in the franchise, and indeed it was practically easier for us to vote by post as the postal ballots were sent out much earlier than they would be for a general election (when they can't be printed until nominations are closed, which means for those of us further from the UK it's difficult to get postal ballots received and returned in time - I usually ask a cousin in the UK to be my postal proxy).

Where the electorate for the Brexit referendum was rigged was firstly the move to individual not household registration, which has helped disenfranchise a lot of mostly younger voters, and the decision to use the UK Parliamentary franchise which excluded people from EU countries resident in the UK. Clearly if they'd had been included the result would have almost certainly have been to remain. I'm a little surprised none of the legal challenges to the Brexit process haven't argued that EU residents in the UK are being unfairly deprived of their treaty rights without having the chance to vote on it.

Oh, and that individual registration thing is permanent, along with the new "fairer" constituency boundaries now being pushed through. Both favour the Tories significantly and will make it harder than ever for an opposition party to win a Westminster general election in future.

22:

by the factions who sell oil and sponsor denial climate change, from Exxon-Mobil to the Kremlin Which includes nice Mr Assange, doesn't it? Putin paid him & won the US election.....

Kremlin revived Old Guard - do you think they have been reading Harold Mackinder, again? It sounds horribly like it?

... and now we're in the dirty thirties Time for re-armament, then? Physical as well as "moral".

Private elron @ 9 It's got to the stage where, already, even the Daily Telegraph is starting to edge away from Trumpolini ... As some of his choices & friends crawl out of the woodwork.

Nick Barlow @ 13 Not so - I'm 70 soon to be 71 - I still think the EU stinks, but that we should have stayed in & tried AGAIN to reform it & again & again. Possibly too late now.

And Charlie @ 18 indeed - & as the err "practical difficulties" of Brexit grow ever-larger, I really wonder if some method of reneging err .. finding out that "acceptable terms" are not on offer & thus getting a rejection-of-term referendum - then reverting to status quo ante ...

23:

Secondly, over a million over-18 British Citizens registered to vote in general elections were disenfranchised because they happened to live in the EU.

AFAIK everyone eligible to vote in a general election was also eligible to vote in the referendum. The people disenfranchised for living outside the UK were those who have lived abroad for at least 15 years and therefore cannot vote in Parliamentary elections either (this has been the case since 2000).

The law authorising the referendum defined the electorate for it as

the persons who, on the date of the referendum, would be entitled to vote as electors at a parliamentary election in any constituency

plus some others (peers and Gibraltar residents).

24:

I'm generally averse to seeing conspiracies, unless there can be hard proof of it (correlation does not imply cuasation and all that).

I found your piece on the beige dictatorship quite insightful, and it helped to explain a lot of the properties of many modern governments. But I also find that you at times stick with too easy explanations.

One thing is that it seems the turn towards racism or violence doesn't really come from economic plight, but rather the removal (real or perceived) of privilege or power. (See eg White Riot.) This helps to explain why some, even relatively prosperous groups, turn to Trump or Farage.

What recent insight into postcolonial and intersectional thinking has led to is both a widespread demand for structural inequalities that can address relatively narrow groups, and that privileged but relatively powerless groups feel increasingly attacked. I believe one result has been that progressive groups have become increasingly splintered (through narrow demands from groups that see little common ground), while the forces of reaction and conservatism have felt under siege and thus found it easy to find common ground.

I view identity politics and intersectionality as the first successful liberal critique of the marxist-socialist theories, and as such it should be welcomed. But now we need a synthesis between identity politics and the group-oriented progressive political theories.

That said, I have little doubt that the various nationalistic and fascistic movements do inspire each other. But they still will have to fight and win largely on their own merits, due to their own innate nationalism and xenophobia.

25:

As someone who has been living in the US for close to twenty years, I was excluded from the Brexit vote As I don't live in the U.K., I am fine with not voting, as I don't live there As an EU citizen, I was extremely unhappy about not being to able to vote about Wether myself and my daughter could retain our EU citizenship

26:

The notable thing about the Axis of Evil was that there was no axis. I don't think there is one here either, or at least not yet. Lets see how this plays out for a bit before taking to the matresses

27:

plus some others (peers and Gibraltar residents).

As a matter of interest are lunatics still denied the vote?

28:
As a matter of interest are lunatics still denied the vote?

Yes, if involuntarily detained I believe.

29:

I'm German and call me old-fasioned, but I believe it's my duty to do everything in my power to fight fascism.

What OGH speculates has me deeply worried. What can I concretely do to help? We all had a big laugh over here when the PEGIDA strollers crashed and burned (go check out their entry on RationalWiki, it's hilarious). Since a lot of things fly in from across the pond (we even got armed "sovereign citizens" in the form of "Reichsbürger" as of late), I'm anxious about their resurgence, a push for the AfD or even the NPD, and a new wave of burning refugee shelters...

30:

As a matter of interest are lunatics still denied the vote?

Yes, if involuntarily detained I believe.

Ah, that explains it. Thanks.

31:

Find 8 people who think like you and organise a group. Ask each of them to organise another group of 9 people. When you have 10 groups organise a meeting. Talk about practical ways to fight back. There are endless resources from the left you can draw upon. Divide yourself by task and specialism - media, legal, fundraising, PR, events, demonstrations, recruitment, technology... If you have a skills gap, then find people to fill it. Talk to people, spread your ideas, amalgamate with others to form umbrella groups.

Rinse and repeat until you win.

32:

Oh come on... Being Russian I find things British press (and certain British citizens) are saying about Russia annoying and wrong (I personally blame Cold War mental residue and Bond movies for that).

It seems to me that people in the West don't quite understand the trauma that USSR's demise was to most of the people. The old ideology had fizzled out – but Gorbachev and the Politburo found nothing better than to start courting the Russian Orthodox Church as a replacement. So now our political system is more like that of the times of Ivan the Terrible and early Romanovs. As for ideology, it's exceptionalism that was preached in Moscow in 17th century (Third Rome doctrine) with a dash of Soviet propaganda. A twisted and unnatural mix, but in the same time a reaction to the perceived slight... even treason by the West. We did believe that we will be welcomed with open arms once USSR is no more. What we got instead was NATO at our doorstep, Russian refugees from former Soviet republics (the ones who were not killed outright) and the choice between alcoholic and crazy apparatchik in 1996. And then the backlash from that brought us Putin who had promptly lost all contact with reality a few years into his first term. But by this time most of Russians were too tired of politics and the price of oil was on the rise so we just stopped giving a damn. Too much wars and revolutions tend to have this effect, y'know... And that's how we ended with the government that is trying to roll back everything that happened after 1680s.

So I don't think there is some conspiracy or that Putin had any influence in the US elections. It's more like everyone in the elites just got the "brilliant" idea that it's much easier to blame "them" for everything that's wrong with the system than to try to fix it. So the likes of Trump are seen as an enemy of the current establishment – who are definitely classified as "them" and "enemy of my enemy..." comes into play, hence the support for the crazy.

33:

While I wouldn't consign you to the tin foil hat brigade quite yet, and I agree with some of your post above, sorry but your first and very visceral initial response kind of tells the story about how Trump won the election and Brexit happened.

I'm not meaning to crap on you or your loved ones, but your immediate fear was that you might not be allowed into the US (given the categories you said you were in) While it was a totally reasonable fear, especially given the Breitbart dude's elevation and you forgot to mention the puppies saga, at the end of the day, your fear was you might not be admitted to the US.

It wasn't fear of homelessness, not having food on the table, having your children taken away cos you weren't employed and your ex was gunning. Or fear your children wouldn't be employed ever due to offshoring of jobs etc. It was fear of not being granted a visa when you turned up to the US. It wasn't about the intergenerational unemployment either.

I don't have skin in either the Trump or Brexit game (and wouldn't have voted either), but have colleagues in both places (many well educated) who I totally wouldn't have expected to vote that way but who went 'don't tell anyone but I'm voting.....'

Their fears were grounded on their families having a job, healthcare etc, And the elephant dragging his feet across the room is that while Trump said and has done abhorrent things, the vulnerable in society put up with this every day and he is the norm not the exception unless you have the power to tell him to bugger off. I do, these days, but it's only been in the last 5 years (and I'm pushing 50).

At least with Trump you see him coming. And you can defend yourself. The likes of Bernie Sanders sets off the red flags cos while he talks a good game, he will knife you in the back while claiming he is an ally.

34:

Sorry, they DO have a mandate.

The fact that Cameron was too fucking stupid to think he could lose with the electorate HE chose doesn't mean the result isn't valid.

The fact Scotland chose a different age group to every other election in the UK doesn't necessarily make it obvious the next election should have the same age range. It doesn't make it obvious it shouldn't either of course.

And if he'd included the EU citizens and it had been a similar margin the other way the out campaigners would have screamed bloody murder. Of course if he'd been smart we'd never have had the bloody referendum but moaning about how he conducted it doesn't change the result.

35:

I can confirm this from the german perspective. virtually everyone of my parent's friends is strongly pro-EU and supportive towards inbound migration, mentioning their own WW2 experiences. These are middle class people in their 80ies now.

36:

For all those who disagree with Charlie's analysis that it's a global war, let me explain why he's right, from a distance, but slightly off on the specific details.

In the mid-sixties, there were takeovers, by the students, at UC Bergeley, NYC and elsewhere. In Rapoport's "Is The Library Burning", what they found in more than one Dean's and college presidents' files were not explicit plans, but rather "one dirty hand washing another".

That I believe is what's going on.

And I'd say the deal between Trumpolini and Putin is, shall we say, the Pact of Aluminum....

On the other hand, one very seriously scary thing to consider. Someone noted that fascists are bad at economics. The thing is, a century ago, seeing the rise of socialism into an actual force, the wealthy chose to use the rough rabble who could be bought cheaply to put someone of their choice to control the government. Except, of course, that once in, they very rapidly lost control. I do not see it being any different this time.

Perhaps it's time to consider whether the question should be asked: would you have shot Hitler?"

mark "why am I in a handbasket, and where am I going?"

37:

The one advantage America has right now is one of our big stumbling blocks. Separation of powers.

I'm kinda shocked that Brexit was a simple majority vote simply because of how big of a change it was. I've read enough history to also know that Westminster can rapidly adopt programs and changes based on the majority. Be it NHS or the rump Parliament.

That rump Parliament business is also key to the US constitution, as the Founders were all big readers of John Lilburne, and could be roughly considered the intellectual decedents of the levelers.

Baked into that separation of powers the fact that slavery was already becoming a big domestic issue. Half the North had outlawed slavery by 1790, the rest would follow by 1800. (Also the same time as Wilberforce's work btw). The founders hoped slavery would die out in the South like it was in the north. The problem is 1793 the Cotton Gin was invented and suddenly increased the value of slaves many fold.

Why all this matters is the Constitutional Process is slow in the US. Super- Majorities in both houses of congress are required, along with a super majority of the states. It makes it a solid bitch to get things done when you want a change. The Lochner era, for instance had a Supreme Court believe in near absolute freedom of contract to the point they were striking down Child Labor laws. There's still a pending amendment from 1924 to amend the Constitution to give congress additional powers over child labor (10 more states need to ratify it).

As such for all Trump can do in the US, there's limits. His longest lasting damage is control of foreign policy and ending trade deals. But the mainstream republicans like trade and defense with Europe/Asia. It's not actually clear if the President can unilaterally end a treaty, and everytime one has tried congress goes to court and keeps it in court until there's a new president.

Much is made of the judiciary, and I think we're in for fun times with that. Hint, the right has been suborned for years on this issue. Great example is the 1986 organized retention election campaign against the California Supreme Court. Ended up being a campaign about bleeding heart justices against the death penalty and soft on crime. Actual subtext was these justices were the leading judges on creating new theories of product liability. Especially what expanding what are called the coke bottle cases (strict product liability for exploding coke bottles). The money in that recall was all companies seeking to dodge product liability suits.

Otoh, a President can do a lot. Trump can do some tinkering and effectively end Obamacare. He can redirect federal enforcement efforts, for example the EPA to do nothing, or have various agencies switch their focus to immigration. (Including the DACA folks who came here illegally as children and took a risk joining DACA because that means CBE knows where they are). He can pretty much reverse federal employee policies on stuff like LGBT equality (or even go back to pre-don't ask don't tell policies for the military). He can also effectively block new hiring for federal agencies and starve them out.

Combine this with a Congress that views him as a useful rubber stamp. For example, there's a bill that will strip what's called Chevron deference from the US administrative agencies. That's deference given to an agency for its own interpretation of its rules. It's a long bugaboo of those against the administrative state in the US.

Ugh.

38:

Said it before, saying it again: shoot Hitler (at the relevant point of comparison, ~Jan 1933) and all you do is give Göring a martyr.

39:

With regard to the topic, I tend, for the moment, to think that the right-wing shifts we're seeing are more in the category of emergent properties than conscious conspiracies. Although, of course, there are folks who see what's emerging and conspire to take advantage of it.

However, OGH said "the KGB (newly reformed last month)." What's the "reformed" part? Was there some significant re-reorganization of the FSB and SVR back into a single entity?

And speaking of the SVR, formerly the First Chief Directorate of the KGB, application of the historical imagery tool in Google Earth shows that its HQ (55.584 N, 37.518 E) has been undergoing major expansion this decade. What's that about?

40:

The Internet was supposed to make society better informed and enable individuals to become actively involved in their governments. Maybe this hasn't happened because there's a strong belief among some that if something doesn't make money for someone, it has no merit/worth. So, maybe we should start charging folks for information about their governments? The additional benefit to this is that if the info turns out to be wrong, we launch a class action lawsuit.

Other stuff I'd like to see ...

Elected officials - all meetings to be recorded and posted online. No more private meetings --- after all elected officials supposedly work for the electorate, and lord knows the tech already exists to implement this. Ditto for emails ... the gov't and esp. elected representatives must be seen to do its job correctly and ethically. This would probably help reduce expenses too if all concerned knew they were being constantly recorded.

No solicitations from corporations -- campaign expenses, dinners/speaking engagements, etc. Corporations are not allowed to vote so why are they being sought out as the primary funders of candidates. Solicitations can only be from eligible voters (individuals) and capped at an affordable (by most of the pop'n) amount, say $100. Otherwise it's asking politicians to actively go out and get bought. And if you claim you need more money to run a campaign ... consider how much exposure (free) social media and crappy network infotainment 'reporting' managed to deliver to some candidates. This is doable ... there are countries that have 'election expenses acts' where candidates are allowed to spend maximum amount per person within their/that voting district...

Don't waste two years of everyone's time campaigning rather than doing the job you were supposedly elected to do. The Internet sends info out much faster than the pony express, so why keep the pony express campaign calendar ... unless the money to cover a two-year campaign can only be had from soliciting corporate support.

Okay - some of the above may sound conspiratorial depending on the voice it's read in, but seriously, we need to re-examine the how and why of we do things including their consequences.

Also, consider what types of individuals would vs. would not run for elected office if the above happened.

41:

Re: 'Super- Majorities in both houses of congress are required, along with a super majority of the states.'

Yes - the GOP controls both houses and probably the White House too, so it's full speed away.

FYI - 'super-majority' is simply 50% plus 1 vote.

42:

The likes of Bernie Sanders sets off the red flags cos while he talks a good game, he will knife you in the back while claiming he is an ally.

Where do you get this. He's the only candidate in a long time who seems to say exactly what he was thinking. (Well at least the only who did this with coherent thoughts.)

43:

We kind of have to salute Russia here.

An economy smaller than that of Canada or Italy, which has essentially no innovation, exports little but raw materials and has negligible cultural outreach has completely subverted the Western democracies to cover up its own failures.

As a tactical victory, Putin is the winner - but was it a strategic win?

After all, did the Kremlin plan on having Trump in the White House? With Hillary they'd have had a known quantity that they could demonise without risking everything. But now they have got rid of the enemy that was sold to the population and replaced her with a complete unknown with little experience and ridiculously thin skinned who will see any slight as a provocation that must be answered.

And meanwhile China militarises the China Sea and the Pacific and starts putting its political, economic and military might into the 'Stans which have been traditionally in Russia's orbit.

Interesting times for everyone - assuming we live long enough to write the history textbooks.

44:

Seriously, they thought orange will give them decent healthcare and jobs? This is why vote needs to be public (yeah, yeah, point of pressure and so on, I don't care) and stored for future reference. I have a supporter nearby and I am not letting this be forgotten. You voted, you own the consequences. Good or bad.

45:

One thing OGH doesn't quite seem to have spotted is what the EU looks like from the point of view of a businessman. John Redwood MP is a fairly authoritative source on this front; before politics he ran several successful businesses, and in politics ended up fighting a rearguard action to prevent various EU regulations from crippling British business interests. He also states that he had much more success trading with American and Asian companies than he ever did trading with EU companies; Germany in particular is almost impossible to sell things to.

Then we have the various arms of the EU operating in the various states. If OGH has ever talked to farmers trying to collect subsidies from the EU, he will have encountered the peculiar difficulty that EU inspectors seem to have in measuring land areas. Fields that have had static boundaries for the last 500 years suddenly change in area from year to year; forms get rejected because of this. Then we have pettifogging regulation of what farmers can and cannot do at set times of year, set by office-bound bureaucrats in Brussels (or possibly Strasbourg).

This causes such insanities as the Great Autumn Slurry Rush, where farmers desperately try to get their manure pits emptied onto the fields before the completely arbitrary cut-off date is hit (you need to be spreading slurry while the weather is warm enough that the grass will absorb the nitrates), and the Great Hedge-Cutting Rush, where farmers try to get what was traditionally a winter time-filler job done before that arbitrary window gets shut again.

All arbitrary bureaucrat-set rules that have little real-world relevance; farmers are, strangely enough, smart enough not to pollute watercourses with nitrate run-off and smart enough not to needlessly compact fields with heavy machinery (by waiting for a good, hard frost before hedging, for instance).

Finally, you can judge an organisation's overall culture by looking at the little extravagances that are lavished upon the senior figures in that organisation. Google famously determined that companies with their own fleet of corporate jets did less well than those which merely chartered flights as needed.

So, look to the EU and what do we see but waste, extravagance and needless spending of money everywhere. For one week every month the entire EU Parliament decamps from Brussels to Strasbourg, and back again. They waste millions doing this, and have never even tried to cut costs by changing the rule to one month per annum say, or by splitting the Parliament.

Basically the EU seems to be completely fine with pissing other peoples' money up the wall with no regard to economy or good sense. When the taxpayers who pay for such extravagances watch this, can you not empathise with them wishing to cease paying such a wasteful organisation?

Thus, Brexit.

46:

"The Internet was supposed to make society better informed and enable individuals to become actively involved in their governments."

I was around in the BBS days and never got that memo. Wasn't the whole funding for internet #1 (BBS days) from the US defence force and didn't their techs help to make the platform? (I could be wrong)

Sorry SF, but that seems like a nostalgic view of how we wanted it to be, rather than how it ever was or how it turned out. Facebook's a relatively late player to the game and Satan in my view, but it's now the dominant platform for news and even many of my trusted sources have plugins as they need the revenue.

Whatever tech gets invented tomorrow will be co-opted when it becomes commercially viable

47:
Re: 'Super- Majorities in both houses of congress are required, along with a super majority of the states.' Yes - the GOP controls both houses and probably the White House too, so it's full speed away. FYI - 'super-majority' is simply 50% plus 1 vote.

No, "supermajority" in US constitutional terms means 2/3 of a legislative house, in the case of constitutional amendments and impeachment convictions, and 3/4 of states in the case of constitutional amendments.

48:

FYI - 'super-majority' is simply 50% plus 1 vote.

Ah, no.

The Congress, whenever two thirds of both houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose amendments to this Constitution, or, on the application of the legislatures of two thirds of the several states, shall call a convention for proposing amendments, which, in either case, shall be valid to all intents and purposes, as

49:

Nyet.

2/3rds majority required to pass an amendment (Art V. Section 1). And effectively 60 votes to end a filler buster.

It doesn't prevent lots of stupid, but it does limit their ability to pass stuff like anti-abortion amendments, anti-gay marriage amendments, (or for Trump's promise, term limits) etc.

As to the court, let's just all send RBG vitamins and hope she lives longer than JPS.

50:

I get this from the way he talked, what he said, and (most importantly) what he didn't say. How my female (and some male) professional colleagues felt about him having seen his speeches, met him and read what he had to say (and again, most importantly, what he didn't say). (eg he was totally lukewarm when his followers were being sexist against Clinton - he distanced himself but never stepped up and walked the talk)

These were women and men that worked in male dominated industries (in my case engineering and R & D related)who have dealt with both the Donald Trumps and the Bernie's of the world for more than 20 years. And that's not counting the admin supports and all the little people who've seen far too many people talk a good game and not deliver. Whatever you saw in him, vulnerable people saw a person talking a good game who would never deliver and who was looking after his ownself. They would have voted Hillary (some Trump) but he came across as the accountant that bedazzles you with bullshit while ripping off your taxes to most people I know. can't exactly explain why, but that's how he was perceived

51:

I think that a post-mortem analysis of how we got here is important if we are to successfully fight this

Here are 3 questions (accompanied by rants):

  • Why did the alt-right successfully capitalize on people's grievances? Why not the alt-left?

  • Why did no one see this coming? I mean, I could understand that Brexit came out of the blue (no one was really paying attention to Austria and the Philippines). But after Brexit, why did few analysts see what was in front of their noses?

  • I'm sorry to harp back to this, but why were people surprised by Trump's demographics? I don't mean the white men, I mean the white women who voted 52% for him, as well as the 29% Asian and Latino vote. The latter two are at this point being asleep at the wheel in the hubris that both groups are predictable. Seriously, we've been running this election for close to 2 years now, and there were pollsters who were so lazy/full of confirmation bias that they assumed near uniformity where it didn't exist. So far, the only group which voted as pollsters predicted were African Americans.

  • 52:

    Well, there was some talk about merging FSB and SVR into Ministry of State Security but Putin (or was it Mevedev?) spoke and promised that there would be no such merger. As for expansion... they try to drown armed forces and security services in money to raise "effectiveness", but it's quite possible that all that expansion really is just adding some luxury offices.

    53:

    Nope they didn't think he would fix everything, (and I didn't vote for him and have no skin in the game) but he at least listened to their fears and concerns while the Dems flew over them and expected their votes.

    They already owned their votes for Obama one and 2 (and were still screwed) and the biggest mistake I think Clinton made was not explaining to this demographic why Obama was hogtied by the Congress etc. And why they needed to vote not just for her but in the other houses as well so they could have a better future.

    YMMV

    54:

    I think you'll find that quite a lot of people were actually voting against the other major candidate when they voted for someone. This is true on both sides.

    And your thinking the vote needs to be public is just plain wrong-headed. You want it so that public pressure can be applied in one direction. The pressure could just as easily be applied by authoritarians who do not want you voting the way you want to. Do you really want to hand them something they can use to leverage you to go against your interests?

    55:

    More importantly, why were there 10 million less voters than 2008, or 5 million less than 2012. I think it comes back to the democrats having a track record of backing party insiders. Essentially a pecking order of whose turn it is. And the democrat whose turn it is always loses.

    Democratic presidents since 1960? Kennedy, LBJ, Carter, B. Clinton, Obama.

    Lost Candidates include Hoover, McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry and H. Clinton.

    With the exception of LBJ who inherited the Mantle of Kennedy, the losers were all the insider senior candidates blessed by the party. The winners were the outsiders with charm and charisma.

    It breaks down to Republicans have put out about the same number of voters since 2000, while democrat turn out has been spotty. Republicans have been great about party discipline, while Democrats have never manage it. It really comes down to whether the Democrats pick a candidate that gets people out voting.

    56:

    Regarding the Brexit mandate thing, I have to concede that under the rules the referendum took place under then yes, actually they do have a mandate, admittedly it's to my eyes narrow enough to be pretty well within the noise, and nobody really knows what it's a mandate for (on a continuum of outness between North Korea and Switzerland).

    That said, I'm flabbergasted that MP's are as enthusiastic as they are to ram something through which 48% of the engaged electorate voted against. Under normal circumstances that would seem uncharacteristically brave and serious amounts of fudge would be being cooked up...

    57:

    your fear was you might not be admitted to the US.

    Er, no: my fear is that I'm being deprived of the benefits of European citizenship -- yes, I hold the EU to be broadly beneficial to me and to people like me -- and that plays into very deep fears. Loss of international mobility killed about half my blood relatives a generation ago, in 1939-42 -- the side of my family that didn't make it out of Poland in time.

    So yes, I take restrictions on mobility seriously. As far as I can see, any country can go to hell in a hand basket in five years or less; that's all it took from 2007 to Greece being a total basket-case, for example. You have to be ready and willing to migrate or die. And attempts to prevent me from being able to escape are deeply threatening on a personal level.

    I grew up attending a synagogue with older folks who had numbers tattooed on their arms. Don't try to tell me I'm jumping at shadows here.

    58:

    “I think the Russians would love to put into effect the strategy described and would love even more to take credit for it. But I suspect they are making little social media pushes and content to be seen to be pulling strings - yet without being actually in cahoots with Trump.”

    Yeah, that’s happening already. Ed Shultz used to have a spot on MSNBC and well known for his liberal views is now working for Russian TV (RT), America. Listening to Schultz now on current events, he comes across as neutral on his reporting … it makes me queasy.

    “Now, if Trump starts changing the whole make up of the electoral college so it takes more than a 6M vote advantage for Democrats to win (currently 1M for Hilary iiRC) then I might be a bit more worried.”

    I think we need to be worried right now. The U.S. Electoral College needs to be gotten rid of.

    59:

    I think you'll find that quite a lot of people were actually voting against the other major candidate when they voted for someone. This is true on both sides.

    Stats I heard last night on cable news. 90% of the people who voted were against one or both of the candidates. 20% were against both.

    So only 10% of the voters were making a choice between two people that they would accept.

    60:

    'I grew up attending a synagogue with older folks who had numbers tattooed on their arms. Don't try to tell me I'm jumping at shadows here.'

    Wasn't my intent at all and sorry you took that from my comment. My Mum worked for many years at a hospice for survivors and we grew up respecting that kind of evil and were taught really young to stand up against it.

    Your original post read somewhat differently (and it's not like you owe anyone any explanations).

    There is a difference though between mobility (ie the right to flee to a safe place) and a visa to the US because you have a convention in TX to go to which is how your first post read and I, and others, initially read this as a fear of your physical safety and others responded accordingly. Then you came back and talked about the visa TX thing (including the Breitbart dude and the categories you felt might deny you a visa) and that is what I was responding to.

    I've obviously struck a nerve I didn't intend to (and didn't know about) and it has hurt you personally, for which I am sorry.

    On the mobility issue, while in a perfect world, we could go where we wish, most of the time, being able to go to a place that is safe is the best we can hope for. I got the impression from your posts you were safe where you are.

    61:

    I'll not be posting till post 300, per usual (and I've a take on this post that goes beyond just Russia), but "hat's off" to Host.

    Not an easy post to make, esp. since The Hounds will be bounding past en meute and such stances in perilous times are threatening to livelihoods and so forth. (Note to Peanut Gallery: Fangs are out).

    But, it's such a shame: America just doesn't have the chique appeal of Hugo Boss:

    #MAGA Hats for all of GOP (picture, valid source Nate Hodson Twitter)

    ~

    Someone (not even being funny) told me ~5 years ago that safe havens might include Africa, Iceland (Elf Safe Land) and a couple other places. They weren't joking.

    62:

    I think that forces in the West have been complicit with what the Russians are doing because higher living standards, especially sustainable such, are a threat to them. Comfortable people not living in fear (as many Americans rightly do of ill-health, and of poverty and the crime [both civilian and police] attendant to it) are less tractable… and I can't shake the feeling that there are always those at the top who just plain enjoy seeing suffering beneath them, a secular version of the 'Abominable Fancy'.…not a majority, my guess is that most are indifferent or would positively prefer being above a relatively happy multitude, if only for practical purposes.

    Take this as encouragement:the Enlightenment is now sirely troubled precisely because it was on the right track. Me, I think it time to make something of the Masons again.

    We had a kettle: we let it leak: Our not repairing it made it worse. We haven't had any tea for a week… The bottom is out of the Universe!

    63:
    Someone (not even being funny) told me ~5 years ago that safe havens might include Africa, Iceland (Elf Safe Land) and a couple other places. They weren't joking.

    We're looking at Ireland. (Hurrah for Irish citizenship laws!)

    64:

    Also commenters at 48 and 49:

    Constitution would not need to get amended for most (all?) of TD's plans to be enacted, therefore at most only 50% plus 1 will be needed. And, it's always easier to pass temporary legislation and then just let it hang around forever, e.g. income tax first introduced in 1861, and entered into the constitution as the 16th Amendment in 1913.

    I recently looked up Executive Orders mostly because I recalled hearing that WmClinton had issued an excessive number of them, hence abusing the Office. Turns out that more recent POTUS issued far fewer EOs than previous presidents, esp. FDR (3,522 vs. Obama at 261 to-date) who is nevertheless still rated as one of America's 'best presidents'. Looking ahead (next 4 years), this is where the super-majority will likely become necessary: stopping EOs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order

    'Major policy initiatives require approval by the legislative branch, but executive orders have significant influence over the internal affairs of government, deciding how and to what degree legislation will be enforced, dealing with emergencies, waging wars, and in general fine-tuning policy choices in the implementation of broad statutes.

    Franklin Roosevelt

    Prior to 1932, uncontested executive orders had determined such issues as national mourning on the death of a president, and the lowering of flags to half-staff. President Franklin Roosevelt issued the first of his more than 3,500 executive orders on March 6, 1933, declaring a bank holiday, forbidding banks to release gold coin or bullion. Executive Order 6102 forbade the hoarding of gold coin, bullion and gold certificates. A further executive order required all newly mined domestic gold be delivered to the Treasury.[8]

    By Executive Order 6581, the president created the Export-Import Bank of the United States. On March 7, 1934, he created the National Industrial Recovery Act (Executive Order 6632). On June 29, the president issued Executive Order 6763 "under the authority vested in me by the Constitution", thereby creating the National Labor Relations Board.

    The Hughes Court of the 1934 term found the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) unconstitutional. The president then issued Executive Order 7073 "by virtue of the authority vested in me under the said Emergency Relief Appropriation Act of 1935", reestablishing the National Emergency Council to administer the functions of the NIRA in carrying out the provisions of the Emergency Relief Appropriations Act." On June 15, he issued Executive Order 7075, which terminated NIRA and replaced it with the Office of Administration of the National Recovery Administration.[12]

    Roosevelt's Supreme Court of Justices Hugo Black, Stanley Reed, Felix Frankfurter, William O. Douglas, Frank Murphy and James F. Byrnes was sympathetic to the President's choices. Only George Washington had had equal or greater influence over Court appointments, choosing all of its original members.'

    65:

    And, of course, the devout religious believers, especially, want it to be worse & suffering out there, because it fills the churches & mosques. More blackmailing, in other words. Pence, again.

    66:

    I think the problem is basically economics. Before WWII Germany was severely depressed (well, so were other places, but Germany is where it happened). Currently large areas are severely depressed because of changes due to automation and international competition. (Please note that before the US was attacked there was a large fascist block in the US.)

    I don't see any improvement coming. A drowning man grasps at straws, and automation is now taking jobs away from Chinese workers. (Not sure about Indonesian.) What's needed is an economic system that doesn't tie survival to holding a job, but those currently in power would stand to lose huge amounts of power if such were implemented, which is probably a large factor in why Hillary was given the pass by the Democratic National Committee over Bernie. Of course, I believe that Bernie knew this from before the start of the campaign...but Hillary??? Nobody liked her. The most convincing argument that showed up in her favor is "She's a woman". (I'm not counting "Well, she's better than Trump." as a favorable argument, even if it is true.) So Hillary couldn't motivate people to vote for her. And apparently (judging by reports) if I'd listened to her more I'd have trusted her less...which is odd, as her record is of being more honest than most politicians.

    But Hillary was just promising more of the same, and didn't see that lots of people were desperate. Think about that, she was running for president and literally didn't see that lots of people were desperate. (Corruption in the FBI was the final straw, but the reason it was even close is because she was such a poor candidate.)

    67:

    On this topic you're welcome to pitch in immediately -- just try to be direct and clearer than usual so the folks who don't understand what you're pointing at find it easier to get the message?

    To those who usually ignore SnU (and other aliases): this post is about exactly the sort of thing they usually talk about, in coded language intended to avoid attracting the inevitable swarms of propaganda bots. By some estimates 10-15% of all political tweets prior to the last US election originated with bots (and humans are lousy at spotting them); meanwhile Facebook was spammed silly with fake news stories concocted by kids in the impoverished Macedonian town of Veles aggressively pushed made-up pro-Trump stories purely for the Amazon and Google advertising revenue ... and that's before we get into looking for state-level actors.

    68:

    Let's see, the problem with vote confidentiality is only a problem if you already have some kind of repression (family, government). Ok, even if they are against a candidate that is a valid argument for having a public stance. What is totally unacceptable is having a bunch of irresponsible citizens "see googling what is eu after brexit".

    69:

    Well, there was some talk about merging FSB and SVR into Ministry of State Security

    Ah, the MGB redux.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_State_Security_(Soviet_Union)

    If a merger were to happen, I'd certainly hope that they'd go with KGB. That acronym has an incomparable cachet. For that matter, simply renaming the SVR the KGB and leaving the FSB as is might be effective.

    it's quite possible that all that expansion really is just adding some luxury offices.

    I'd be cool with that and undoubtedly it's true to some extent: who doesn't like a nice office? But, like all the mad expansion around DC after 9/11, some of the extra floor space might actually be functional.

    70:
    Constitution would not need to get amended for most (all?) of TD's plans to be enacted, therefore at most only 50% plus 1 will be needed.

    Correct, although under current rules a minority of 41 or more can block passage of items through the Senate.

    This, of course, is contingent on the new Senate maintaining the filibuster, which is merely a procedural rule and not a constitutional provision. When the new Senate meets in January, it decides by a straight majority what procedural rules to adopt, and it could then decide to abolish the filibuster and there's nothing the Democrats can do to stop it.

    Whether that will actually happen is doubtful. Every time the party holding the White House has controlled the Senate with less than a 60+ majority, there have been noises that they should take the so-called "nuclear option" of abolishing the filibuster. It has yet to happen as the conclusion has always been that eventually the tide will turn and the current majority party will find itself the minority and would want the filibuster to block stuff it really doesn't like.

    71:
    If a merger were to happen, I'd certainly hope that they'd go with KGB. That acronym has an incomparable cachet.

    Well, Lukashenko kept it in Belarus, although the acronym in transliterated Belarussian is "KDB" which doesn't really work. I think the unrecognised Transnistrian Republic has a KGB too. Anyone know what Abkhazia and South Ossetia went for?

    For that matter, simply renaming the SVR the KGB and leaving the FSB as is might be effective.

    I'd say the opposite myself. "KGB" means "Chekists"more than it means "spies" I feel.

    72:

    Many of his bigger plans require Amendments. Especially the ones his VP wants, like overturning gay marriage and abortions, as well as term limits.

    Some require a willing congress as well. Congress will sue to stop and delay any treaty revocation. It's never been clear whose power it is to leave a treaty.

    Otoh, yeah there's plenty he can do. Ending obamacare he can do quickly. He can chose not to defend different challenges brought by the republicans to many different other policies of obama. Let alone stuff like EPA enforcement, etc.

    The interesting thing is where the republicans fall apart. Not all of them want to get rid of medicare. Not all of them want to pass a new Trumpcare. The republicans are going to have a falling out since so many of them have never actually governed. Last real governing republican congress was out the door in '07, and most of the current big names date from after the neocon purges.

    So now the tea party guys elected to obstruct obama now need to suddenly have clear policy goals. Turns out there's a bunch of factions that were hanging together so long as it was just anti-obama.

    73:

    For that matter, simply renaming the SVR the KGB and leaving the FSB as is might be effective.

    I'd say the opposite myself. "KGB" means "Chekists" more than it means "spies" I feel.

    I suppose that it depends on whether you're inside or outside the system and, these days, what impression the Russian government wants to make -- internal vs external.

    It would be interesting to see a study of the relative size, funding, influence of the KGB's First and Second Main Directorates in Late Classical Times (< 1991).

    74:

    1) What part of the world do you live in that there's no repression? 2) and bosses, landlords, journalists with a grudge 50 years from now, random shitheads with a grudge two weeks from now (have you not seen the vitriol being directed at "Remoaners"?), gangsters...

    75:

    @Roy I am fairly sure the Filibuster goes the way of the dodo at the start of the next Senate session. Why would McConnell allow it to remain? This IS the Republican's dark chance. And even if he did have reservations, I'm sure Pence will lean on him to do it.

    eventually the tide will turn and the current majority party will find itself the minority

    The dark part of me says that the Republicans will make sure this never happens.

    76:

    @18

    Let's be very clear, they don't have a clear mandate for Brexit.

    I agree. Any referendum rules that allow for a simple majority to carry the motion cannot provide a clear mandate, except in an accidental case where over 50% of the electorate actually happen to vote for or against. Even if the outcome had been the other way around, with the same turnout, 38% voting for remain would not have been a clear mandate. The majority of the electorate did not vote for Brexit.

    Perhaps in these times, when elected representatives decide the state of their country on a popular vote, they could at least pay attention to ensuring a clear mandate is actually discernible from the result.

    77:

    Who sets the agenda ... as in organizes which stuff is brought up for discussion first, second, third, etc.?

    Don't recall whether Robert's Rules of Order are used in the US gov't houses although the below suggests that it's a toss-up as to what gets brought up in either house as well as what actually gets passed. Also, Senate can/does re-write bills that Congress passed including to the point where the Senate-approved bill is opposite to the original bill's intent. Terrific misdirection/deception esp. since the original name gets kept as the legislation winds its way through the system.

    http://www.aacom.org/advocacy/advocacy-resources/how-congress-works

    78:

    Alt-Left might do it if Centre-Left get out the way and let Corbyn actually do their thing. If they don't, the next round here there will be a right-wing establishment and an even better chance for Alt-Left to do it. Corbyn is certainly a leader who is doing the right sort of things to be recognised as such.

    I think the establishment, and in that I'll include the pollsters, can't recognise the phenomenon yet is they don't know how to ask the questions. You would have thought "Who will you vote for?" would be easy enough, but Fivethirtyeight.com were saying there were a lot of undecided voters in the polls, so they were not highly confident of their prediction unlike previous years. Why were there so many undecided voters in the opinion polls?

    While you see the voting pattern of the various demographics in the US presidential election as pollster hubris, I'm more inclined to see something else. Pollsters don't try to get it wrong, the very public face of their business is this kind of thing but the thing that makes their day to day money is opinion polling on adverts and products and so on. But screwing this up messing up their income streams. So the interesting question is why couldn't they find a representative group of these sub-groups of the US population?

    For Brexit, for example, there was a huge upswell in voter registrations, so the polls being off is not a huge surprise because we had a lot of people vote who had never voted before so they really weren't represented in the opinion polls. The only surprise was that they were, by and large, all leave voters. That doesn't seem to be the case in the US election, but maybe lots of "White women for Trump" came out and voted for the first time. Or maybe there was lots of voter fraud. By his supporters.

    79:

    I think your point about the number of people who have effectively no savings being a similar number to the Brexit voters is a very interesting, likely accurate point. The thing that scares me the most is that technology has sped up the destruction of the middle class and the recent breakthroughs in AI are about to finish off what is left. I expect that within 5 years, self-driving tech will replace the 3.5 million truck drivers in the USA. I wonder how many more jobs that currently require humans will get replaced - but I expect it's enough that the only jobs left will be low-paying service jobs or high-end jobs (lawyers, doctors, certain SW jobs). At this point, unless we get some form of basic income (which is highly unlikely to ever fly in the USA given the puritanical social underpinnings), I don't see how we don't end up with a dystopia.

    80:

    Here's another thing

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/election-results-2016-by-state-and-county-229735#NY

    If you look at Florida and New York's vote by county, you can pick out the large cities and suburbs (with a few exceptions such as Suffolk County). There is a similar divide in England and Wales w.r.t. Brexit. I wonder why this divide even exists?

    81:

    Quick Note version (working on not much sleep):

    1 US "Liberal" protests about Trump's staff = self-defeating. The entire push is to de-legitimize / remove the glamour of the Post, they're working for the wrong side (however much it might feel ethically correct to protest the rise of Fascism, this is all Legal, so far). - Repubs only need a couple more seats to permanently rework the constitution, very easy to use the counter-push to motivate the shock troops. Then you'll get a lesson in "fuck you" legislature. 1a SHOCK! They won! Now look at them crumble, none of them have a fucking clue what to do! This is the real move, watch it play out again and again. 2 Look @ S.K. - ~2% of population protesting, all peacefully (and picking up rubbish). State puts it @ ~300kish, we all know to multiply such figures by at least 50%. Probably nearer 900k. This was a well timed move. Government is going to fall, don't think they can hold off until UN leadership times out for a quick "return to nest & govern" deal. 3 UK - environmentalist movements, 8+ years of police undercover, fucking / having children, all of it. For what? If you don't have a healthy (if totally ineffectual) left, then this shit happens. France bombs Green Peace vessel - for what? Muppet-land, all Muppet-land. 4 It is Russia, but it's more: Singapore / HK examples. There's strong elements within USA / Aus / Can / UK / FR etc etc who aren't fans of Democracy... and it's not the unwashed beasties and raving loons like Alex Jones (who Trump allegedly just phoned). Basically, it's Oligarchy on Steroids. 5 Our Kind wouldn't care that much if it was actually based on meritocracy / talent / fangs. It's not, so phhhpt. Oh, and: We loved YOU too much, not ourselves, you little pricks. 6 Saud / Russia / Iran / Venuz etc are actually on a clock, and it's not a good one. Oil is dying. 7 Climate Change. 8 Black Money - 100% related to this. Russia to blame? Kinda - look who Putin is combating (esp. mafia that stretches from Georgia to Jerusalem). <- investigating that will get you killed. Same deal for Oliver North, S/C. America; Mexico; Golden Triangle; Afghanistan etc. It's always about the black money trade. Which is the real fight.

    ~

    Can unpack, hassled atm.

    82:

    Uff, lost a bit due to mis-using arrows.

    Essentially, #8 is a whole lot bigger than expected, and is global. C/S. America, Mexico, Golden Triangle, Afghanistan, etc etc.

    Black Money is the real motivator behind the scenes in a lot of these moves. The financial crash of 2008 didn't go nuclear because banks used the grey/black slush funds (liquid assets rather than derivatives etc) to pad themselves out. The bail outs were a whole lot later.

    True. Story.

    "Why, Hello General Oliver North".

    83:

    And, anyhow - as title states: "Playtime is Over".

    Don't expect the 20th C rules to apply anymore, things got broken.

    www.oglaf.com

    Cute, but not accurate. Exposition is in a bit, when the scales get balanced.

    ~

    The quick take-a-way is that it's a stress test and almost everyone failed. (From Greece 2007 onwards, up to 2017 Bonds crisis and so on). Trump is just the dying gasp of a dead era of dead Minds running Zombie Memes. Kek is a symptom, not a cause.

    There's a lover in the story But the story's still the same There's a lullaby for suffering And a paradox to blame But it's written in the scriptures And it's not some idle claim You want it darker We kill the flame

    You Want It Darker YT: Leonard Cohen, 4:46, RIP 2016

    84:

    "For me, turning the back to Europe is absolutely inconceivable. "

    Let me say it one more time: Europe is not the EU and the EU is not Europe

    For those of us Europeans who think the EU in its current form is an impending disaster it is really annoying when people mistakenly equate these 2 very different things.

    85:

    The filibuster proof two thirds majority in the US senate is a rule made by the Senate itself, and could in theory be struck down by the Senate. Of course, the boot will one day be on the other foot, so the the ruling party of the day is reluctant to take that step. So far.

    In the past an actual filibuster was required, a member standing up and talking till the session ended, but with advancing age and shrivelled bladder the rules were changed to allow a virtual filibuster. Technically, a cloture motion is required to move to a vote, with a two thirds majority. http://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/briefing/Filibuster_Cloture.htm

    86:

    The EU is the institution we have though, and looks like we are going to need it

    87:

    The USA just had six years of total shut-down of actual governance, coupled with huge gains on the local / state levels of people who couldn't run a whore house in a port town where the US navy was a frequent caller (oh, and that's a handle on the Philippines, if you want one: treating that region of Asian countries as whore-houses en mass, as well as all the children. You are the bad guys: Hinch win: Federal Government to ban overseas travel for paedophiles News Corp Australia Network, 11th Nov 2016).

    ~

    Basically, it's a Bear Trap.

    88:

    Now look at them crumble, none of them have a fucking clue what to do! That was my take-away from watching the president-elect Trump+spouse+adult children interview with CBS news 60 minutes. Not confident that it applies to all of the proposed cabinet/staff though. (For those who are willing to burn the time, 60 Minutes interview: President-elect Donald Trump)

    89:

    I wouldn't want to spoon feed anyone, but:

    1 Record number of Law graduates with massive loans and no hope of jobs 2 Ancient Law system where 9 judges control the entire nation of 300+ mil 3 Legal system that's broken, out of date, rests on publicly elected positions for prosecutors / judges and so stretched that ~85%+ of cases have to be plea bargains or it crashes 4 Which is being gamed horribly and pathetically and obviously and politically by Repubs so that they get "their" choice 5 To "prevent" any change for the next 50 years or so

    Remind me who ran the French Revolution again. Danton, and so on...

    Basically, get your shit together. We could shape that into a revolution in under 3 weeks.

    90:

    Oh, and funny: If you want to know why Trump won, look to the TPP. Slavery via Law is not ok, esp. locking everyone into fucking Disney.

    And, yeah: thinking you're next, Corporate America.

    Jailbreak YT: Music: AC/DC: 4:08

    ~

    More modern:

    Les RevenantsYT: Music Mogwai 49:50

    91:

    It is not a secret that Russia tried to influence election (US did it to them too), however I would like to see evidence that there is a deliberate plan spanning 2 decades. The stupid thing is that people wanted to vote that way, clickbait sites made stupid stories, orange guy made equally shocking stories himself but that didn't stick. He made a kill during primary and during that time there were no Russians or kids from Veles.

    It is unstable situation and money should be redistributed more. Going slowly by increasing government help is a peaceful way (similar like Obamacare as a transition to single payer). Cook until people realize it is better that way.

    92:

    Oh, and last belly laugh:

    From MF: Realistically, there's nothing much Israel can do to affect US politics and goes on to claim "He welcomed Trump's election because he thought it would break the “non-Orthodox Jewish hold on the US government” and thereby bring the Messiah." and HO-HO-HO mocking him!

    Crazy man!

    Who is the fucking Minister for the Interior. The Ministry of Interior (Hebrew: משרד הפנים‎‎, Misrad HaPnim; Arabic: وزارة الداخلية‎‎) in the State of Israel is one of the government offices that is responsible for local government, citizenship and residency, identity cards, and student and entry visas.

    Hmm, Passports again. Shall we look into this "crazy man's" portfolio, shall we:

    <em>The Administration for Local Government and Administration Administration for Budgeting and Developing in the Local Authorities Wing for Inspection in the Local Authorities Administration of Planning Administration of Border check points, Population and Immigration Administration for Emergency Services and Special Tasks[needs update] Commissioner of Fire-Fighting and Rescuing[needs update] National Elections' Supervisor National Unit for Building Supervising Administration of Water</em>

    Oh, right: that'd be fucking central to the issue of illegal settlements.

    But, our MF friend is happy to denounce him merely as a "crazy fool" with "no power".

    And that is why Breitbart and co gain traction (who were, at least at the start, pro-Right Israeli, until an intercine putsch occurred).

    Everyone knows how powerful AIPAC and so on are: this constant denial of Power through a lens of persecution is precisely why and how the mirrors gain their power.

    People running bullshit memes from the 20th C.

    ~

    And no, that's not anti-Semitic: it's anti-bullshit.

    Oh, and the Messiah is female.

    93:

    It has yet to happen as the conclusion has always been that eventually the tide will turn and the current majority party will find itself the minority and would want the filibuster to block stuff it really doesn't like.

    Apparently is seems more and more of the hard core new folks seem to think that if they just go far enough hard core they will never loose the majority.

    Slightly delusional thinking but it seems to be there.

    94:

    You really don't know how close the USA gov is to

    1 Total shutdown 2 Constitutional "reform" via majority votes 3 Breaking entirely

    Please, tell me more how you think it's going.

    95:

    I expect that within 5 years, self-driving tech will replace the 3.5 million truck drivers in the USA.

    Maybe. For long haul maybe maybe. But for deliveries and urban areas there is a LOT that AI still has issues with. Such as when is it OK to double park. Or cross the center line for a turn where there's no other apparent choice. And on and on and on..

    96:

    Sorry, forgot the link there:

    Deri: “If such a miracle like this can happen we have already reached the days of the Messiah, therefore we are really in the era of the birth pangs of the Messiah."

    ‘Trump’s election heralds coming of Messiah’ says Deri JPost 11th Nov 2016

    And, MF is a total joke now - FB for quasi-silly-gullibles who couldn't think their way out of a paper bag.

    100% inability to critique or have a nuanced view of Israeli politics (I even sourced some of the darker ones) due to crippling political donkey-hood.

    And no: that's the Minister for the Interior, not some random nut-job off the street. He's gonna have a real shock when a female Messiah who hates FGM turns up and spanks the shite out of their patriarchal world, but hey.

    98:

    I don't think there's an organized conspiracy. But I do think a lot of Alt right (call them whatever) are best positioned to step in when things get wonky. The problem is that while many think the Trump supporters have an agenda, they really do not. They have a LOT of agendas and many (most?) are not willing to "compromise" to get a part of what they have. This is already starting to show up in the transition team trying to pick people and set goals. Rumors are that behind the scenes it's already getting nasty.

    Add to that that at the end of the day Trump is much more tactical than strategic he is very much willing to give up some things like not being absolutist against abortion to get something passed the infighting might become very public soon.

    Now toss in realities party that happens after the election but before taking office. Congress funds a non partisan group to explain the laws of the land and such to advise the new President and their team. I saw a talk by Leon Panetta about how at the end of these briefings you find out you can't do but about 5% of what you want. Maybe more if Congress is with you. But much of what you think the President can do is limited by various pesky laws that even a compliant Congress is reluctant to change and many of these changes would impact their privileges.

    99:

    Dead Memes from ages ago.

    Paraded out constantly to the American "Liberal Left" as a panacea to pardon the deplorables...

    And then they fucking won

    Have you no shame, no originality, no zest, no fucking fire?

    You're trotting out dead memes that didn't work, didn't explain shit and caused you to lose...

    Seriously.

    The Alt-Right etc (and various other Chaotic Domains) are many things - but they can adapt, change, spark, laugh psychotically into the warp and have fun.

    You people are DEAD INSIDE.

    100:

    One thing I had not seen mentioned here yet: Why quite a few Jews voted for Trump:

    http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2011/05/the_five_stages_of_islam.html

    Mind you, I do not buy it. But I know Jews who consider the "creeping Islam" to be the greater threat than Stormfront, or Evangelical Christianity, or Putin's Russia. And they see the likes of Trump and Le Pen as the only ones willing to stand up to it.

    101:

    Ok, we'll let you into a little joke here: The "Alt-Right" are only using Trump as a Kek-Meme-God.

    The more ridiculous / silly / outlandish / chaotic / hideous he is, the funnier the joke.

    They're not functioning on the same horizontal planes of Power you are.

    And they'll dump Trump as soon as he goes Square. It's already happening.

    But they got him elected.

    Tsk Tsk.

    The more outlandish / disorganized / chaotic his reign, the better.

    ~

    This shit I told you 2+ years ago.

    And you. do. not. learn.

    102:

    Jewish vote:

    25% ish Trump 75% ish Clinton

    It's that simple.

    And yes, a whole load of dubious fascist Israelis have cross-over.

    And yes: Fascism =/= Nazism, fucking deal with it - the far right in Israel is almost as large as in Eastern Baltic States.

    Grow. The. Fuck. Up. America.

    103:

    I think people need to look beyond the various ism's of Trump, Farage, etc, to understand why they win things. I don't think that 50ish% of people are out and out fascists. I do think a lot have been pretty much abandoned by the left. I don't know as much about the US side, but I'm given to understand that, like parts of Northern Britain, areas of high unemployment and collapsed industry feel abandoned. The phrase "loss of inherent privilege", and similar that I've heard elsewhere, sounds rather dismissive, almost as though they deserve it because of history. Or maybe someone can explain that further. I think you're bang on about Trumps failings-they're not pleasant, but they're obvious. Clinton, on the other hand, says the nice, cuddly, progressive things, but behind closed doors is doing the sorts of deals/arrangements/scams that you don't quite grasp, can't understand, maybe are technically legal, but somehow mean you lose your job and your pension gets screwed. A poster child for everything people hate about politicians. I wonder how much Russia encouraged her selection...?

    104:

    Um.

    Cash Flowed to Clinton Foundation Amid Russian Uranium Deal NYT, April 2015

    It's kinda more like: you've no fucking idea about business and international Corporations, but hey, let's all vote on how we feel.

    No, really.

    105:

    "For those of us Europeans who think the EU in its current form is an impending disaster it is really annoying when people mistakenly equate these 2 very different things."

    And it is for that reason I spoke of Europe here and not of the EU. Because too many eurosceptics mistake mention of the EU for an invitation to rattle down their favourite list of the EU's failings in order to avoid the larger idea behind it.

    106:

    And, ffs.

    The leaked Emails were done by American Intel (probably NSA, CIA is Obama side, FBI are fucking muppets at this point, although as we all saw, they did the killing blow - which even their side wasn't 100% sure would work, thus the Satanic Panic / Art attacks ratfucking).

    Russia was blamed due to overly-cozy deals as linked to above.

    It was done to hamstring some deals you will never know about.

    And, by doing so, they probably fucked up Sino-USA relations for ~20 years, or at the very least, lost control of the S. Sea.

    Capice?

    107:

    Anyhow, welcome to a Game we play: 100% Truth.

    Then we watch the blinkers / cognitive dissonance / slave conditioning kick in and watch them skirt around the issues.

    This is one of the most basic and puerile of Power Games used by our kind. Like shooting someone in the face, and demanding they apologize.

    108:

    I've only read down to #25, so forgive me if I'm restating.

    History has lessons to teach, but events never unfold exactly the same way. We're all looking at the '30's because they're recent, familiar (in that our family has told us about them) and seem widely applicable.

    I think there's another period that also has a lot to teach. The 40's. Not the 1940's the 1340's. We're pretty much staring down the barrel of a die off in the order or >90% of all humans. The last time we had anything remotely like this was the Black Death that killed about half the population of Europe. It brought huge change, probably ending feudalism and the monarchy, while starting the industrial revolution. No-one in 1340 could or would have predicted what would come out of that in the end but, what they could have predicted was the short term results. Basically what we're seeing now.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death#Persecutions

    Renewed religious fervour and fanaticism bloomed in the wake of the Black Death. (Check) Some Europeans targeted "various groups such as Jews, friars, foreigners, beggars, pilgrims",[65] lepers,[65][66] and Romani, thinking that they were to blame for the crisis. (Check) Lepers, and other individuals with skin diseases such as acne or psoriasis, were singled out and exterminated throughout Europe. (Not this time)

    Because 14th-century healers were at a loss to explain the cause, Europeans turned to astrological forces, earthquakes, and the poisoning of wells by Jews as possible reasons for the plague's emergence.[12] (Check - except that the science of today is clear, but is being drowned out) The governments of Europe had no apparent response to the crisis (Check) because no one knew its cause or how it spread. The mechanism of infection and transmission of diseases was little understood in the 14th century; many people believed only God's anger could produce such horrific displays. (Check)

    There were many attacks against Jewish communities.[67] In February 1349, the citizens of Strasbourg murdered 2,000 Jews.[67] In August 1349, the Jewish communities in Mainz and Cologne were exterminated. By 1351, 60 major and 150 smaller Jewish communities had been destroyed.[68] (We'll have to wait and see for the attacks on Jews, but really, any group who look or act a bit different, who can't fight back will do in a pinch, as recent events have shown)

    109:

    That's a joke.

    Anything demanding an apology for your own mistake is 100% not our kind, it's not how we work.

    HINT HINT HINT

    YOU'RE RULED BY MUPPETS

    ~

    Anyhow:

    Careful of Wikipedia.

    The Black Death and subsequent purges of Jewish communities is really dubious stuff, and also ties into other Wars / Religious conflicts.

    There's loads of places that never purged Jews, and those who purged Jews weren't necessarily relating it to the Plague. i.e. They purged them anyhow, with no plague present (and no - not a precautionary measure).

    In fact, the demographics of Plague are really spotty (i.e. there's a load of new scholarship showing that the spread is not blanket, but curiously spotted across populations / towns / villages).

    And, if you look at the real data - there's considerable data showing that large (70%) proportions of City-States at that time did not purge Jews, esp. in Germany (OK - WE GET THE IRONY ALREADY) and nearby areas.

    Oh, and England.

    Because they'd purged all their Jews in 1291 >.<

    ~

    Just Saying.

    110:

    SFreader:

    I'm sorry, but that's wrong. In general, a supermajority is defined as a required majority larger than 50%+1; that's what the "super" prefix means. And specifically, in the United States, Article 5 of the Constitution says, in part, "The Congress, whenever two thirds of both houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose amendments to this Constitution, or, on the application of the legislatures of two thirds of the several states, shall call a convention for proposing amendments, which, in either case, shall be valid to all intents and purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the legislatures of three fourths of the several states, or by conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other mode of ratification may be proposed by the Congress." That is clearly a requirement for more than 50%+1 in every venue where voting can take place. That may or may not be a good idea, but the facts of the matter are clear.

    111:

    SnU @ 81: I can testify to the Australian side of things.

    We have the euphemistically named "Institute of Public Affairs". This labels itself as a libertarian/economically conservative "think tank", but is, if you look at the names of their big donors (the ones we know about, anyway), effectively a vehicle for the big corporate players in Australia: the Hancock/Reinhart family, the Murdochs, the Packers, the CEOs of the big mining firms, the CEOs of the banks, the CEOs of big tobacco and so on. It's their way of getting complete control of the Liberal Party of Australia (our conservative side of politics) and quite literally setting their agenda.

    They started back in the Howard years, they became blatant under Abbott, and they stand largely for the dissolution of trade unions, the removal of any and all social security measures, the removal of any and all worker protections, the right to set wages as low as they can possibly go, the destruction of any forms of public welfare (corporate welfare is to remain intact, however), and essentially the removal of any obstacles in the way of their obtaining All The Money. Including representative democracy where ordinary, working-class humans are able to have an equal say to their good selves.

    112:

    Oh, and if any of you are uncomfortable with the Abrahamic tone:

    Kinda done with all of the tri-partite religious fold excusing their more hideous and evil sides as "not their religion".

    It is your Religion.

    And they did vote for Trump.

    And they are (of a majority) racist, sexist, abusive, violent little fucks.

    And it is a large (30%) basis of your Religion.

    ~

    Sort your shit out. Or, at the very least, don't pretend it doesn't exist as a scar on humanity already.

    Now, was I referring to Judaism, Islam or Christianity?

    [Spoiler: all of the above]

    113:

    "More importantly, why were there 10 million less voters than 2008, or 5 million less than 2012."

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-voter-turnout-wasnt-way-down-from-2012/

    says turnout isn't substantially down from 2012, and votes are still being counted in any case.

    (current estimate is 134,537,600 ballots (58.1% voting-eligible population), v.s. 2012's 130,292,355 ballots (58.6% voting-eligible population))

    114:

    All true.

    Re-reading what I wrote I see I wandered away from my main points.

    1 History is a guide to understanding the future but not a map

    2 Even with hindsight, it's impossible to see how someone in 1340 could have predicted the results of killing > half the population.

    We're going into a similar situation. All we can see for sure is that the innocent will be blamed, panic will rule and the consequences are impossible to determine.

    So that's what I wanted to say in that post.

    The other thing I want to say (re automation etc) is that allocation of scarce resources has been handled by money, and the accumulation of it, generally by exchange of work (time) for money. Obviously with almost everyone out of work (including the Lawyers BTW. Great for legal firms, not so great for lawyers... http://www.legalweek.com/sites/legalweek/2015/11/12/is-artificial-intelligence-the-key-to-unlocking-innovation-in-your-law-firm/?slreturn=20161015204835 ) we will need an alternative means of resource allocation. Everyone sensible is suggesting UBI but that's never actually been used anywhere. What is normally used is simply taking by force (or by right of conquest etc).

    115:

    I have been astonished in conversations with coworkers and friends who cannot see the parallels between the current rise of fascists and authoritarian nationalists with previous such infestations.

    We have a few other parallels as well. The late 1920s included a (widely remembered) economic/stock market boom, coupled in part to a (much forgotten) wave of sovereign debt crises in Europe and elsewhere.

    The bond markets are vastly larger than equities. So when sovereign debt starts to implode as it has been doing in Europe over the last few years, large amounts of capital flow to equity markets. Most of us don't pay close attention, so a booming stock market sounds like things must be pretty good (contrary evidence is of course ignored or pooh-poohed).... Until they aren't and the whole house of cards falls down.

    If we think that the alienated are currently voting for fascists like Trump or Le Pen, and foolishness like Brexit - just wait until we run into another economic collapse.

    116:

    "Old-school fascists tended to be rather bad at capitalism. But fascists are no more incapable of learning than anyone else."

    I'm dubious. Their problems are nepotism and corruption, and they don't want to learn not to be that.

    Corruption and nepotism are inefficient. As China shows, those inefficiencies can be overcome, especially when it's raining money. But when economic times are hard then having the presidents son-in-law's college room-mate running the company is bad. And long term the inefficiencies pile up.

    (Not that nepotism and corruption don't exist in non-fascist capitalism - but authoritarian regimes are more extreme)

    My guess is that 50 years from now Trump's infrastructure projects will by bywords for nepotistic capitalism, like the US post invasion projects in Iraq were handouts to Haliburton & assoc.

    117:

    I don't think the Putin/Trump situation is Machiavellian plotting; I think it's convergent evolution. Empires in decay destroy the self-image of those who relied on groupthink, leading (after the Soviet collapse) skyrocketing deathrates across the population and (in the US) rising deathrates for middle-aged whites. The people who see the meaning in their (sexist, racist, bigoted) lives rotting in front of their eyes then react by wanting to see the world burn. That accounts for the superpowers; for France, England, Austria not so clearly, since they should have gone through that stage in the fifties rather than now. The most worrying possibility is that all these different nations are tending to follow the same trajectory because what's dying isn't just American exceptionalism or Russian exceptionalism or even capitalism or liberalism or neoliberalism, or western civilisation, but something larger than any of those - so large that we can't see what it is because we're living inside it in a fish/water situation. I hope, for OGH's sake, that he has an outline somewhere in his files for a Laundry novel where the old ones return and universally are hailed with relief as the best-case scenario.

    118:

    I think people need to look beyond the various ism's to understand why they win things. ... I do think a lot have been pretty much abandoned by the left. I don't know as much about the US side

    Me neither. But I do think there's a lot in the idea that many Trump/Brexit etc supporters are objecting to is not poverty per se, it's that they're being forced down to the level of their inferiors. Otherwise there'd be a lot more US black support for Trump, for example.

    But perhaps his obvious racism puts off the black voters more than the people he wants to lift up? Gee, naked self-interest and a willingness to write off people who are visibly different? I'm deliberately not calling that racism because that offends those who are most vigilantly anti-PC. And I disagree with them on that too - words matter.

    In Australia we have more problematic versions of much of this. In a way we might be 10 years ahead of the curve. Our problems stem from the bipartisan (actually multiparty) agreement that we need to torture refugees, strip citizenship from and deport unwanted immigrants, further dehumanise first nations people, that feminism is both a stupid idea and has gone too far, that there is one correct religion and all must respect it, and so on.

    I fear that the USA and UK might follow Australia in those matters. The fact that I think Australia is more democratic than either of those countries does not help, and may make things worse. I can vote Green all I want, 90% of the population don't care whether the world burns (in Australia, literally burns), as long as they get theirs.

    119:

    #2 Ancient Law system where 9 judges control the entire nation of 300+ mil 8 judges. Antonin Scalia is still dead, and 4-4 ties are still possible.

    Point made though. FWIW lawyers in the US do not skew majorly left even by US standards, though there are plenty of firebrands. (Donations mainly to Democrats, fwiw.) Don't know who (left; the right won) skews revolutionary in the US though. The Political Ideologies of American Lawyers (from http://scholar.harvard.edu/msen/lawyers-Ideologies ) (Tech firms and newspapers and print media tend left, figure 2)

    At www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com, saw Today in the Coming Apocalypse Changes in Aragonite Saturation... Climate change (CO2 in this case) is an overriding reason that activism/involvement is important.

    120:

    No, it's worse than that. In the Bannon culture, 90% of the population don't care whether they get theirs, as long as the world burns. That's why people who think the American electorate will be disillusioned with Trump when he doesn't deliver are missing the point.

    121:

    Ah, the MGB redux.

    Yes, that was my thought exactly. And was it unpleasant... but looks like it was another show for Putin. It usually goes like this: 1. Some official "proposes" something stupid 2. Everybody shit their collective pants 3. Putin comes and says that the idea is stupid and would not be implemented. 4. Sometimes they go ahead with it quietly within a year.

    I'd be cool with that and undoubtedly it's true to some extent: who doesn't like a nice office? But, like all the mad expansion around DC after 9/11, some of the extra floor space might actually be functional.

    Oh, it's intended to be functional for sure. But those who are tasked with implementation usually "redirect" so much funds into their pockets that the results are... underwhelming at best. Like that spaceport in the Russian Far East where the money just disappeared and now our government prefers not to talk about it. Or when they have changed the name of the police force from "militia" to "police" – it made that bribes problem they wanted to eradicate actually worse to the point that the Lt. Colonel from anti-corruption force was caught with 100+million USD in cash (he claimed innocence, naturally).

    122:

    Actually it's a bit funny to watch Westerners losing their mind about Brexit and US elections. That perverted kind of fun when you see someone else step in the same turd as you. My reaction to both events was not "That's impossible!" – it was more like "How could they step in the same turd as we did?"

    Hillary's loss looks for me like something paralleling the demise of Russian liberals. They were saying all the right words, they were promising us the goddamn stars... the problem was they've had a run of the country and they have failed to deliver. And instead of owning up to their mistakes and trying to maybe adjust their ways a tiny bit they just continued to preach the virtues of the Market Economy (with a heap of libertarian ideas thrown in). And that sounds like "Let's starve the whole country again!" to everyone who had to survive the 1990s. Even communists did better and their only shtick was "Let's magically recreate the USSR!"

    And then Putin came and promised to make Russia great again. And the rest, as they say, is history. People were fed up with the establishment and cheered when they were ousted one by one... failing to notice that only the faces have changed but not the tendencies. And that's how we ended up heading right towards the 17th century.

    And the important lesson I've got out of all that? Facts don't matter in the political game. The liberals were done in by the public perception of them as hopeless failures which prevented their return even when they did clean up their act. Putin's policies are touted as successful even when they have failed... and the public perceives them as such. All the failures are attributed not to the fault in the policies but to the stupidity/laziness/ill will of those who are tasked with implementing them.

    And so... there's a hope for you in the West. That lack of blind belief in the authority who "knows better" may just help you pull through. As for us... I don't know.

    123:

    what's dying isn't just American exceptionalism or Russian exceptionalism or even capitalism or liberalism or neoliberalism, or western civilisation, but something larger than any of those - so large that we can't see what it is because we're living inside it in a fish/water situation.

    Agreed. The shift is much bigger than just some change in political system(s). And while we can't see it (yet?), it definitely is felt... and perceived as a threat, hence all those "us versus them" splits in the societies worldwide. And if it's not controlled, well... the wars have started already.

    124:

    DingDingDing.Wrong!

    Der'i is indeed far from without influence, but water rights in the Territories(like virtually everything else) are purview of the Minister of Defense, by virtue of them being under martial law.

    quick tutorial: Der'i is Charedi, and his party continues to be very sectorial about it. He actually has Ministry of the Interior because as Minister of Commerce he wouldn't use a specific regulation to help pass the natural gas agreement, and resigned from that post(so our dear, dear PM could use same regulation).He got the Interior Ministry as recompense.The uses he has for it are: 1) Try and make sure people whose conversion wasn't Orthodox enough for his tastes can't, or at least have harder time, become citizens 2) funnel money to Charedi municipal authorities so he can tell his voters he worked for them.

    Also, could you word your comments so it would be obvious if you are specifying "Jews" or "right wing" when talking about "mirrors"?Because some of that read like classic antisemitism(the Jews controlling everything but screaming about persecution) but is actually the right-wing handbook currently in use(I believe Netanyahu learned it from the Republicans)

    PS. re: you later comment - "birth pangs of the Messiah" is essentially hime viewing Trump as a necessary(very great) evil, since one of the Orthodox Jewish traditions has it the the Messiah will only come when all is lost, sometimes worded as "the Messiah will be born in a generation of complete evil".

    125:

    What has happened, is a combination of a few factors:

  • Neo-liberalism has stopped delivering to too many for too long.
  • New technology has disintermediated old elites.
  • One side of the "Beige Dictatorship" happens to crack first depending on local conditions. In America you get Trump on the right; and you also have it on the right in the UK, France, Hungary, Poland and Germany. On the left you have Italy (Five Star); and Greece (Syriza). In Spain, it has cracked in both sides.
  • This is happening at the same time in different countries, because 1 and 2 have an international reach. No conspiracies needed.

    What we need to do is find a set of solutions that will deliver enough to enough to restore faith in the system, much like FDR did in the 30s.

    126:

    Corbyn is certainly a leader who is doing the right sort of things to be recognised as such. This is the sort of utter twaddle that gets people like Trumpolini elected. Corbyn is a replay of George Lansbury, who didn't want re-armament in 1934-6 because that nice Mr Hitler was no threat.

    127:

    We the people who think that the Age of Enlightenment, the end of monarchism, and the evolution of Liberalism are good things (and yes that does include me) can start by admitting that maybe we're Doing It Wrong. Post modernist identity intersectionalism politics has been a ghastly mistake.

    For the past ten years or so progressive ideology has been dominated by identy politics and other postmodern theories. And in the past ten years the rich have gotten richer, working conditions for everyone else have detoriated and unions lost influence, more and more government services have been privatised, and education has become more expensive. These trends have been happening in unison right across the English speaking democracies. (And I'm not seeing any indications that Europe is much better.)

    Eight years ago Barack Obama got elected as President of the USA in spite of all the reactionary forces opposing him. Since then we've had eight years of old timers dying off and post Cold War children growing up and becoming eligible to vote. And yet H Clinton couldn't get elected? WTF?

    Earlier this year British progressives achieved a stunning against the odds Brexit. Now US progressives have managed to get Donald Trump elected. Post modern identity and intersectionalism politics has proved ineffective if not counter productive at economic and political reform.

    What should the new politics look like? Well I'd prefer 20th Century style class based with environmentalism, but I'm old. Maybe Gaiaism should be the way forward?

    128:

    You SAID "One last belly-laugh" @ 92 - & here you are rambling on again.

    Look, we all know its absolutely horrible, we're in for a re-run of the 1930's & you are screwing with the communications? Not exactly clever.

    129:

    Now THAT makes some sort of sense.

    Prediction - be even more afraid, when the Repub christians decide that Trumpolini is a liability & replace him with Pence. Now that really gives me the creeps

    130:

    Slight correction. Actual "Black Death" figures usually varied between 25-35% fatality rates. Greater than 50% was very unusual - devastating nonetheless....

    131:

    ...the problem was they've had a run of the country and they have failed to deliver. Correction. Were quite deliberately stopped from delivering by the Repubs. Who then blamed the Dems for failing ... Err ...

    132:

    Just a quick thought about this:

    Icelandic has the word "heimskur", used to describe somebody who has become spoiled or stupid from never leaving their home.

    (wiktionary link: https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/heimskur )

    As I recall, this came from the idea that in order for a person to develop properly, they had to be exposed to new experiences or ideas, or they would become "heimskur" (it has a root in the word "heima", meaning "home"). The concept created a tradition where people (or more accurately the wealthy land-owners) would send their children avay to relatives in another part of the country, or even another country entirely, as part of their upbringing.

    I like to think about this whenever I hear people expressing isolationist political views, among other things. It is a way to counteract an in-breeding of the mind, so to speak.

    Though, bear in mind that this could only reasonably be done by people with enough money and power to pull it off, so it still points to a class system where some had the opportunity to better themselves and others did not.

    133:

    Yeah, that sounds more likely too. >50% death is rare for any disease. Still, even at that death rate it caused a cultural singularity.

    134:

    British culture had that too, but without the cool word. It was the 'Grand Tour' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Tour

    135:

    "We" need to get a whole lot better at Diplomacy.

    136:

    I'm not sure there's a global conspiracy.

    What kind of conspiracy? The cartoon kind, with strict hierarchies, a shadowy Grand Council, smoke-filled rooms? Or the kind where people know each other, hang out together, shoot the breeze? That will serve to align views and coordinate action just as well as the first kind...

    137:

    Obligatory reading: "Citizens", Simon Schama, on the origins and history of the French Revolution.

    Which was, in the first instance, triggered by a changing society with ossified legal and fiscal and administrative structures running head-first into a fiscal crisis.

    (A situation which was recomplicated by facing off against an unfriendly rival empire overseas who they had been at war with and were to be at war with for a span measured in centuries: the prize, global empire.)

    Unlike the Ancien Regime in France, the USA has in theory got a pre-designed mechanism that can allow its people to hit the "reset" button -- a constitutional convention -- but the world we live in is a lot more compressed and runs hotter and faster than 18th century France: they won't be allowed to push the button without any number of hands grabbing and trying to steer the finger. And that's assuming a cross-faction consensus on what needs to be done can emerge that spans a sufficient range of positions that it can be made to stick.

    138:

    Surely the question has to be "What does Rupert Murdoch actually want?" It's easy to treat question like this as abstractions, as if we're psychohistorians and it's all numbers, but these are actual humans with human motivations.

    Murdoch is very probably the single most influential individual on the planet, and has been using that influence for decades to push right-wing beliefs and filters to as many people as he can.

    Thing is, why? It's not likely to be about the money, as he has more than he can ever spend - and it's not about inheritance, because by all accounts he hates his kids. Power? He's not likely to live long enough to enjoy it. So why persist with the agenda-pushing?

    139:

    I was in Tel Aviv last month, talking to locals.

    The atmosphere there with regard to the Knesset and the current Israeli government is about what you'd expect in New York with respect to the incoming Trump administration in DC; resignation mixed with disgust and contempt for their antics.

    (It was actually quite encouraging.)

    Lovely people, nice city, shame it's on the wrong continent in the wrong century.

    140:

    Our word "idiot" comes from a Classical Greek word meaning "one of limited views, parochial", too.

    141:

    More recently we had Erasmus...

    http://www.erasmusprogramme.com/

    ...but not for much longer.

    142:

    I hope, for OGH's sake, that he has an outline somewhere in his files for a Laundry novel where the old ones return and universally are hailed with relief as the best-case scenario.

    "The Delirium Brief" comes out next June. (Hint.)

    143:

    "On the left you have Italy (Five Star)"

    No, emphatically no. FiveStars at local level are an empty shell on sale for whoever is able to rig their ludicrous "online primaries2, so we have a mayor in Rome who's in fact a front for the old right-wing corrupt machine; at national level they're attacking the current centre-left government in a de facto alliance with Berlusconi and true-bred Fascists and xenophobes, using tha same social media smear tactics of the US alt-right. And they're allied with Farage in the EU parliament. Heck, even Nazis were a "socialist" and "worker's" party.

    144:

    Eight years ago Barack Obama got elected as President of the USA in spite of all the reactionary forces opposing him. Since then we've had eight years of old timers dying off and post Cold War children growing up and becoming eligible to vote. And yet H Clinton couldn't get elected? WTF?

    You missed the point that Clinton is emblematic of the generation before Obama.

    Earlier this year British progressives achieved a stunning against the odds Brexit.

    I wouldn't call a jingoistic wave of back-to-the-1930s nostalgia for empire, coupled with a vile spike in racism and xenophobia, progressive.

    Also/ your denunciation of identity politics misses the point that class struggle masks individual oppression, as witness the SWP sex abuse scandal of the past couple of years.

    145:

    So why persist with the agenda-pushing?

    I'm afraid, after decades of watching Rupe from afar, I am led to conclude that he is not in fact a Machiavellian evil genius with a plan for total world domination: he's a very narrowly insightful media mogul who spots oncoming trends and jumps on them, and he's pushing this right-wing shtick because it's what he grew up with and he's listening to his own media echo chamber (listening to his own newspaper editors and TV channel hosts, who were recruited because what they push gels with his belief system).

    In other words, he believes what he says and doesn't get to hear dissenting voices.

    146:

    ...the problem was they've had a run of the country and they have failed to deliver. Correction. Were quite deliberately stopped from delivering by the Repubs. Who then blamed the Dems for failing ... Err ...

    Erm... I was talking about Russia. Where them liberals did have the power for some time and managed to blow it. Turns out dogmatic thinking is as bad when it's liberal.

    Won't say the same happened to the US as I don't know enough about the system and what's been going on inside it. My point was more about the proverbial Joe Sixpack (or Ivan Vodka-Drunkensky) seeing himself as ripped off by the "elite" and what he thinks are "liberals". Humans have a history of liking the easy solution and not learning from past mistakes, after all.

    147:

    Bear in mind that the English translation of the Swedish cognate of "heimskr" is "horrible".

    148:

    Eh. I suspect we're just seeing an emergent effect wherein representative democracies respond in similar fashions to decreased demand for labor.

  • Democratic governments converge to a single axis system. Call it left/right.
  • Policy in that single axis system becomes gridlocked. Basically at a local maximum in terms of electability given the composite groups in the left/right alignment.
  • Decreased labor demand is not addressed. Seriously, it isn't that hard. Technology -> basic income / infrastructure. Globalization -> increased taxation on the winners in the wealthy country, ie, soak the rich, but leave them better off. Immigration control -> 'fair wages' for immigrants (with a right to sue).
  • On average, the left is smarter and thus less inclined to charismatic populists.
  • So, the only avenue left is a revolution from the right.
  • Sure, Russia wanted Trump, but I don't think they shifted the election by more than a few percent.

    On the bright side, this will hopefully force a realignment on the left.

    I'm hoping, the next acts are: 6. 'Right' shifts left, at least economically. Realistically, Trump did this already. 7. 'Left' shifts left economically. 8. 'Right' policies fail. Simply because they aren't well adapted for the march of technology/history. 8. New, better, equilibrium obtains.

    My main worry (aside from the people who will die) is the whole 'idiot nuclear holocaust' issue.

    US-specific, but, stuff people could do to help.
    1. Stop pretending that racism is outside of the pale. Nothing with > 15% support is outside of the pale because shutting large segments of people outside of the discussion gets you...Trump. 2. Stop pretending that misogyny is outside of the pale. Heck, I know educated, liberal NY women who appear to despise Clinton primarily because of her gender. That reaction really wasn't rare. 3. For the US, be honest about gun control. Yes, guns kill people. No, without eliminating the second amendment, there isn't a real path forward to significantly decreasing mortality. Therefore, either talk about eliminating the second amendment (nonstarter) or give up. Otherwise, you're just engaging in a useless proxy culture war against redneck hicks. 4. Really look at economics and pay attention to problems in the nation. The biggest failure on the democratic side is pushing globalization and finance instead of the good of the lowest 70%. Free trade pacts really do benefit the rich disproportionately. So does immigration. So, the rich should pay. Trade pacts should benefit the nation as a whole and also segments of the nation. So, killing manufacturing in the Midwest without spending enough to replace it somehow is a nonstarter. There's a lot more stickiness than most economic models predict because of the whole human factor. And really, for technological unemployment, there should probably be a tax on disruption. I'm not sure that suddenly eliminating entire classes of employment really benefits society as a whole. I'd sort of incline towards making those industries foot retraining costs for the suddenly unemployed.

    149:

    " if we don't work out how to push back globally fast there will be nobody to remember our graves."

    Look to see who and what May / Trump / Le Pen et al hate (or at least consider convenient targets and/or concepts to be rid of).

    Migrants and the idea of freedom of movement are pretty high up on the list. Why?

    There's the obvious thing of outsiders making convenient scapegoats: a lot of us migrants can't vote where we live (or indeed anywhere), so we make for a cheap punching bag.

    But some of the other reasons might be more interesting.

    1) Because we're easily scapegoated for 'stealing your jobs/women/council houses/' (cross out any that don't apply) we make really good decoys to use when stripping you of your rights. Brexit is an obvious example - 'getting the foreigners out' (which no shortage of pro-Brexit voters thought was what they were voting for) results in U.K. citizens losing their automatic right to leave the U.K. and live in the EU.

    2) Turning the world into a series of gated shearing pens makes us easier to fleece, and makes it harder for us to learn from each other about where to kick the shepherd and how to get out of the pen. Migrants are people who have spent some of our time in a different shearing pen - we've had to live under multiple systems so have seen multiple ways of doing things. Our networks of friends and family are more likely to cut across borders. And one way or another, we managed to get out of at least one shearing pen. So if we could share the different stuff we know, we might be a threat.

    3) Freely moving capital and penned up people lets the few who have substantial capital make out like bandits (see 2). They can go where working conditions are crap, with the confidence that working conditions will continue to be crap for the indefinite future because people have no outside option (yeah ok, so that's more obvious than interesting)

    Migrants are like a sleeping giant. We make up more than 3% of the world's population. If we were a nation state, we'd be something like the 5th most populous in the world (somewhere between Indonesia and Brazil on my reckoning). But so far, we haven't found much of a collective voice. That's not such a surprise: we get divided up by whatever racist guff was in the place we left, and again by whatever racist hierarchy is in place where we go (where-ever you came from - the person who says your accent is 'so cute' is not your friend). Overlay that with our geographic dispersal and the tensions around visa quotas and changing visa rules, and undocumenteds vs documenteds, and residents vs non-residents - not so surprising that we get played off against each other, as well as against non-migrants.

    But if you're looking for ways to push back globally, it's probably worth challenging people when they scapegoat us - and challenging us when we scapegoat each other. And it's probably worth thinking about how to wake that giant.

    150:

    Re:Bannon

    Do we have to call anyone ever praised by nazis a nazi? there doesn't seem to be one whit of evidence that he's part of any nazi group. This is just the same shit where people call anyone who wants to feed the poor a communist.

    He's an asshole, that doesn't make him a nazi.

    But fuck it, it feels good to call people we hate nazis so lets add some more and just call him a "baby eating, fascist, communist, nazi, antinatalist, genoicadal, zionist, anti-semite"

    Anyone who objects: you're either with us or against us!

    151:

    Having literally just returned from Iceland, you're right, but possibly not entirely.
    Medieval Iceland was a very tough place to live, and there generally weren't villages as in Europe, only scattered farmsteads. The thing law required everyone to be bound to a farm either as an owner or as a worker so they could be charged in the proper local court.
    Also by law, and no doubt due to the hostile climate, each farm had to harvest all of its crops - for example it was against the law to let hay go to waste. This meant that there was a vested interest in having enough men to properly work all your lands, meaning that workers were valued, because they were free to move elsewhere when their contracts expired in the spring.
    So the most skilled farmers/fishermen/rowers might move every year to where the best pay was, and be replaced with lesser skilled people. Although weirdly being a shepherd was really low status. No idea why, sheep were a vital for wool and food.

    The population on the island was always terribly low though, with less than 80k before 1900, so I imagine the free movement was relatively easy to manage.

    152:

    >>>I was in Tel Aviv last month, talking to locals.

    The atmosphere there with regard to the Knesset and the current Israeli government is about what you'd expect in New York with respect to the incoming Trump administration in DC; resignation mixed with disgust and contempt for their antics.

    Indeed, the term Tel Aviv's Bubble, "הבועה התל אביבית", is very prevalent in Israel.

    153:

    Good catch, unsurprising: it was merely a copy/paste from Wikipedia, so depth/nuance wasn't exactly on fire.

    but is actually the right-wing handbook currently in use(I believe Netanyahu learned it from the Republicans)

    That's kinda the angle I was satirizing - Breitbart (at least initially) fed into this sphere, before it became a 'little' more rabid.

    A translation for the more outraged thrashing (which was an attempt to translate for chan Minds) - covers the Radical Christian Right, Mercenaries and the real threat in all of this.

    “The enemy, to them, is secularism. They want a God-led government. That’s the only legitimate government,” contends Jeff Sharlet, author of two books on the radical religious right, including “The Family: The Secret Fundamentalism at the Heart of American Power.” “So when they speak of business, they’re speaking not of something separate from God, but they’re speaking of what, in Mike Pence’s circles, would be called biblical capitalism, the idea that this economic system is God-ordained.”...

    Pence opposed imposing restrictions on no-bid contracting, which may help explain his close relationship to Erik Prince, the founder of Blackwater. In December 2007, three months after Blackwater operatives gunned down 17 Iraqi civilians in Baghdad’s Nisour Square, Pence and his Republican Study Committee, which served “the purpose of advancing a conservative social and economic agenda in the House of Representatives,” organized a gathering to welcome Prince to Washington. But their relationship is not just forged in wars. Prince and his mother, Elsa, have been among the top funders of scores of anti-gay-marriage ballot initiatives across the country and have played a key role in financing efforts to criminalize abortion.

    Mike Pence Will Be the Most Powerful Christian Supremacist in U.S. History The Intercept, 15th Nov 2016

    Smart Bears will note who else is part of "The Family".

    and

    For others, the situation was wholly farcical. “Election over > Trump shills have no idea what to do,” one posted. “This is hilarious. Honestly I think its funnier that he won, now /pol/ has to come to terms with the reality that their candidate isn’t going to do jack shit over the next 4 years.”

    Yet another said: “Look, I understand the comedic value of electing the first meme president, but if you actually thought he was going to do ANYTHING positive for the presidency, you’re a fucking retard.”

    “The true is he doesn’t have a fucking clue how to make america great, never had, never will … he’s fucked, the memes are over,” another wrote.

    The alt-right thrives in opposition. What happens now it's the establishment? Guardian, 15th Nov 2016

    154:

    You're out of order: yellow card.

    (I've been reading Bannon's writing. The only way to make him more of a nazi is to put him in a Hugo Boss uniform with a swastika armband.)

    155:

    You are a couple of decades behind the times if you consider "lawyers" as a high end job. While there are a tiny minority of lawyers in UK & USA who have make a substantial income from their practice, and a larger number who manage a comfortable income, there are large numbers, perhaps the majority now, who would be classed as "precariat".

    In Scotland Legal Aid rates haven't been increased in 20 years, so a Solicitor carrying on a purely Legal Aid business working 48+hrs a week (including unsocial call outs during the night) will still be eligible for Tax Credits due to low income, if they can make any income from it at all after expenses. Any Solicitor wanting to earn even Minimum Wage levels needs to use private client work to do so and offer a rationed amount of Legal Aid work.

    In England the Legal Aid position is that it frequently costs Barristers money to take on a Legal Aid case, the payment not even meeting expenses, let alone any payment for time.

    Despite this the tabloids still frequently have stories about how "massive amounts of public money" are being "creamed off" by "fat cat lawyers".

    In reality anyone wanting to make lots of money in law will either set up: (a) a "factory" style setup for e.g. residential purchases by fee paying clients. Generally this will have one or a few lawyers with lots of capital employ lots of junior lawyers or paralegals on comparatively low salaries to churn out work production line style using predefined IT templates; or (b) exclusively act for wealthy persons (individuals or corporate). There is a very small niche for this (and generally taken by those already connected in some way to such wealthy clients),

    In both US & UK the universities have been keen to put through lots of law students as it is a prestige course with comparatively little expense to the institution, which has led to massive numbers of graduates competing for a small number of entry level positions. This of course also brings down the salaries of employed junior lawyers who are easily replaced if required.

    All told this makes the practice of law unattractive to anyone wanting to make money in it, while simultaneously making access to justice more difficulty for the ordinary (non-wealthy) person. Thus in another reversal of the Enlightenment, we gradually move from the rule of law, back to rule by law where the rich & powerful can use the law against others but are virtually immune to being legally held to account themselves.

    156:

    To expand a bit further: we're referring to the larger use of this (the illusion thereof), Christian Persecution and Class/Economic Persecution and even Ethnic Persecution. All of these are bait-switched to make the reader/listener one of the persecuted rather than part of the (unimportant) tiers of the Cake.

    As everyone has probably noticed, it's been quite effective recently. "Trump's Mirror" is a bit narrow-focus; it's a much much larger Lens.

    How bullying works: projection and scapegoating Kitty S. Jones - Jan 2015. Nice long-form with embedded links.

    ~

    Anyhow, the USA all boils down to 9/11 and psychosis.

    157:

    OGH, on a US Constitutional Convention: "And that's assuming a cross-faction consensus on what needs to be done can emerge that spans a sufficient range of positions that it can be made to stick."

    Personally, I expect the only change to the US Constitution will be the addition of an explicit exit clause. It's the only thing that three-quarters of the states will be able to agree on. Followed fairly quickly by a partition into three independent pieces.

    158:

    The only times you see really high mortality rates with a disease are when the disease has only just jumped species and where the disease essentially HAS to kill the host in order to spread.

    Ebola and some strains of influenza are examples of "new" diseases; Ebola normally infects and circulates in fruitbats and only jumps species when someone kills a fruitbat for food and doesn't cook it well enough. Influenza viruses are a complex of viruses, ranging from a gut disease of birds to a closely-related respiratory disease of mammals; genetic material circulates between the differing strains.

    Cordyceps fungi are specialist insect pathogens, which infect ants and the like and modify their behaviour to put the insect into the perfect spore-spreading position whereupon the fungus kills the ant and promptly sporulates.

    Bubonic plague is a disease of steppe-dwelling marmots, which occasionally jumps species from rodents to other mammals. Some strains need fleas as vectors, some don't. The Medieval strain didn't need fleas to spread, and did not use rats as a reservoir either. The only rats present in Medieval Europe were Rattus rattus, the black rat which is a tropical species and doesn't breed at all well in Britain; this animal was only present in ports where the population was continually topped-up from ships. Rattus rattus was not present in the Medieval British countryside.

    In modern times, Ratus norvegicus IS present and can breed very well and cats (which can catch plague and spread it quite effectively) are also present in large numbers, so keeping an eye out for bubonic plague in Britain is quite a good idea.

    159:

    And Hugh Fisher: I go on "liberal" sites and hear them sneer at class struggle. I go on "socialist" sites and hear them fatuously subsume feminism/antiracism/anticolonialism into the class struggle. It's all very discouraging. Six months ago, I told the liberals that abandoning the working class was a pretty damn odd thing for a progressive party to do. I also said that if you don't represent someone, they will find someone else and likely someone who is not exactly "nice." I did not think the numbers quite added up for Trump, but there was a good chance for a right populist in 2020. As it happened the numbers were not all that favorable for Trump, but they got him within the margin of error. Add in a few thumbs on the scale and here we are.

    160:

    Thanks - seems that the 'supermajority' definition varies considerably and does not even require that all members be present for a vote to change something as fundamental as the Constitution. So, if you're into conspiracy theories, TD could be kicked out by his own cabinet who in turn would need less than half of total elected officials ... timing is the tricky bit.

    Source: Wikipedia

    'In the United States Congress, for example, either house must have a majority (218 in the House of Representatives, 51 in the Senate) to have a quorum.'

    'If the vice president and a majority of the president's cabinet declares that the president is unable to serve in that role, the vice president becomes acting president.'

    161:

    My wife is a solictor so whilst I agree with your arguments in principle in general lawyers are still a very well rewarded occupation, yes juniors have it bad, but those who make it into a decent sized law firm or in house are generally pretty well rewarded. My wife's salary from a regional law firm (ie not top tier) or as in-house in a ftse 100 has generally matched or exceeded my London based IT salary, and when she was at a Top Tier it comfortably doubled mine.

    We also have a barrister friend who whilst not being minted certainly has a nice "middle class" lifestyle.

    162:

    Another perspective, professionals can be crap at coming up with new concepts and conservative campaign managers have learned how to ride the pain of the working class to electoral success, and they won't easily give it up.

    163:

    I wouldn't call a jingoistic wave of back-to-the-1930s nostalgia for empire, coupled with a vile spike in racism and xenophobia, progressive. Depends on how you define "progressive" ... If you mean Corbyn ( shadowing Lansbury) allowign Momentum to demonise perfectly respectable Labour MP's pushing for real social justice ( Like StellA C) & allowing racist religious bigots to "no-platform" atheists & peopl again Da'esh ... these people represent themseleves as the "progreesive left" - often referreed to as the "Regressive" left, then what do you expect. ?? They are rapidly vanishing up their own arseholes, but ... they have massively contributed to the things of which you, quite rightly complain. You really couldn't make this shit up, could yo?

    164:

    Well, actually, no. I've seen the quotation from, I believe, Pericles, where it means an Athenian who does not participate in political affairs but is concerned only with his own private matters, but that's not the same concept. And Liddell and Scott give "a private person, an individual; one in a private station, not taking part in public affairs; a common man, plebeian; one who has no professional knowledge, a layman; unpracticed, unskilled; a raw hand, an ignorant, ill-informed man; one's own countryman." That last comes closest but it looks as if it means more "homie." None of them really has the dividing line between the travelled and the untravelled; in fact Athenian handling of public affairs seems mostly to have been Athens first, all the time, as in the notorious seizure of the League treasury.

    165:

    I don't think the black vote for Clinton can be explained by Trump's racism. For one thing, his much publicized statements have not been aimed at blacks; the groups he has made proposals about have been Hispanics (not a race, technically, but a linguistic and cultural group, within which there are blacks and whites and native Americans) and Muslims (not a race, technically, but a religion to which anyone can convert). And for another, the skew in the black vote is much greater: 88% black vote for Clinton, but only 65% Hispanic and 65% Asian, per the New York Times exit polls (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html?_r=0). I think it has to be said that black voters go almost entirely Democratic for distinctive historical reasons that remain in force in multiple elections.

    I also note that Clinton's 88% of the black vote is worse than Obama's 93% in 2012 (not surprising) and Trump's 8% is a little better than Romney's 6%. That might mean something, but I'm not sure how to explain it.

    166:

    Thank you. Can we have more of this? Your link to Pence ( of whom I'm already terrified) was most instructive. Euw.

    Just to repeat the message for others: https://theintercept.com/2016/11/15/mike-pence-will-be-the-most-powerful-christian-supremacist-in-us-history/

    Selected quotes: The enemy, to them, is secularism. They want a God-led government.

    Pence has been a reliable stalwart throughout his public life in the cause of Christian jihad — never wavering in his commitment to America-First militarism, the criminalizing of abortion, and utter hatred for gay people (unless they go into conversion therapy

    “We’ll see Roe v. Wade consigned to the ash heap of history where it belongs,” Pence promised

    ... See also Erik Prince of Blackwater "fame" - a mate of Pence, apparently

    167:

    NSA director went public today that it was done by another state- Russia. Why would NSA go after Clinton? They want control and to stay prospering and she also likes control. Did the emails leaked during the primary to stop Sanders nomination (he would rein them)?

    168:

    Citation?

    I presume you're referencing this little shin-dig, the section called "Video: Fighting Cybercrime: Who Are the Hackers?"

    WSJ CEO Council 2016 -- Full Coverage WSJ - 15th Nov 2016

    He doesn't make any explicit claims, at least in the clips they're showing.

    Notes:

    1 Look at the normalization process - the WSJ is giving Giuliani / Conway (!!) coverage, and look at the other speakers. Note the pull quote: Kellyanne Conway, one of President-elect Donald Trump’s top advisers, scolded the media and bid good riddance to the old Republican order at the WSJ CEO Council gathering on Monday night. That's a very bold / brave statement to run-n-gun with. 2 Why wait until post-election to provide a "100% definite" statement? Simple logic: if they were 100% sure of Russian involvement, isn't it their job to prevent / alter / aid / defend the election process? (Defending cyberspace: A report from the front with NSA Deputy National Manager for National Security Systems Curt Dukes AEI, Oct 18th 2016) 3 Trump is getting taken to the cleaners - Pence is with him in his gilded cage (Man with the Midas touch: Inside the President-elect's $100 million Trump Tower penthouse, complete with gold-rimmed candy bowls, a Mercedes for his son, 10, and ceiling murals of the Greek gods WARNING: Daily Mail link, 16th Nov 2016, pay attention to the triggers used - Wealth, Gold, Greek Gods (Pride / Vanity / Apostasy from Christianity): all a setup for Pence the Ascendant) while WSJ stuff is going on. 4 Trump has court appearances still: ruling that doesn't call off the dogs ( Trump Can’t Delay November Fraud Trial Against Ex-Students Bloomberg 15th Nov 2016). Worth noting that all the sexual assault stuff gets dropped / ignored, fraud on the other hand... not something taken lightly, eh? That trillion dollar mill stone of student debt in the USA needs a good sacrificial hamster.

    ~

    It's all looking like Pence / Christian Capitalism, with Trumpsters failing / flailing with the utter crud, will burn off a lot of the 'Liberal' / progressive ire if hubris strikes and he goes down on fire (as allegedly Trump is already doing with his own team: Trump Family Mafia Executes “Stalin-esque Purge” Vanity Fair, 15th Nov 2016)

    Open to other interpretations, but this might well be a master-class in Predators-at-Play. (Small Mouse nibbles :cheese: in the background as the combine harvesters start reaping).

    170:

    Hopefully I can disagree without getting banned but I respectfully disagree, if he wrote that much nazi stuff then the articles about him wouldn't have to reference 3rd hand quotes from his ex wife accusing him of maybe saying something anti-semitic during divorce proceedings.

    When you called him a nazi I expected some search to turn up actual Nazism not just a sexist asshole since there are ex KKK members and similar who've got into the senate even quite recently.

    If you count his writings to include everything that he allowed anyone to write on his site then there's a lot of toxic shit you can lay at his feet (what could people lay at your feet if they attributed everything you didn't actually delete to you) but pulling down a list of the articles he actually wrote they're remarkable mainly in how dull they are and in that they aren't being quoted in articles about him because they're so dull.

    171:

    Rogers did not name the nation-state in question, nor elaborate on the effect it sought, but he didn’t have to.

    Yes, yes: welcome to the bear-trap (why I linked to the WSJ coverage).

    Given the outcome is looking very good for Pence & co, do I have to give you the alternative meaning of that statement?

    Oh, and...

    'Post-truth' named word of the year by Oxford Dictionaries Guardian, 15th Nov, 2016

    172:

    Bannon continued making documentaries—big, crashing, opinionated films with Wagner scores and arresting imagery: Battle for America (2010), celebrating the Tea Party; Generation Zero (2010), examining the roots of the financial meltdown; The Undefeated (2011), championing Palin. In the Bannon repertoire, no metaphor is too direct. His films are peppered with footage of lions attacking helpless gazelles, seedlings bursting from the ground into glorious bloom. Palin, for one, ate it up and traveled to Iowa, trailed by hundreds of reporters, to appear with him at a 2011 screening in Pella that the press thought might signal her entrance into the 2012 presidential race. (No such luck.) Breitbart came along as promoter and ringmaster. When I spoke with him afterward, he described Bannon, with sincere admiration, as the Leni Riefenstahl of the Tea Party movement.

    This Man Is the Most Dangerous Political Operative in America Bloomberg, Oct 2015

    Leni Riefenstahl: great movie maker, hit it big with a film called "Triumph des Willens", had fans in high places.

    173:

    Certainly there are still a good chunk of "middle class" comfortably well off lawyers : looking at Solicitors 10+PQE, in a medium to large firm, Associate, partner, or consultant who don't still have either a student loan or a massive loan to pay off for buying equity in the firm, they don't need to worry where the next months mortgage payment is coming from. Also civil law private client only Barristers/Advocates with a few years under their belt are doing very nicely, but that is only a minority of all "lawyers".

    Look at primarily Legal Aid practitioners (of any age), small to medium firms, or younger practioners and those are an entirely different economic boat.

    A "fun" game is to attend e.g. the Scottish Legal Aid Conference and "spot the under 40 year old"- and especially bearing in mind that there is a requirement to do a certain amount of Legal Aid CPD every two years which the Conference is the easiest method of achieving.

    Or look at the stats for the number of Solicitors in Scotland who are female (over 50%) and number who are partners of firms (25%). That's indicative that those who are currently partners (owning & managing a law firm) come from an earlier cohort who had full student grants, and lucrative early careers when Solicitors really could make money hand over fist if they put in the hours, so could become partners without coming from a monied background or taking a second mortgage.

    (The Unis started having roughly 50:50 gender balance about the same time that grants were abolished and Legal Aid rates were frozen. Now 2/3 Scottish Solicitors under 40 are female but only 40% over 40)

    174:

    And, really: even Nietzsche ended up detesting Wagner for his anti-Semitic politics. You can't really use the medium of film using such music, coupled with predator footage / mimetic "resurgence" blooming and echoing fucking Riefenstahl without knowing you're directly tapping into that history.

    Well, I mean: you can, if you're dumb - Palin probably missed it, but I doubt Bannon did.

    175:

    Considering that the orange one is highly responsive to ear whispers, I think the status quo is even more dangerous. He does what is told to do and take the public rage. White wizard wins while comfortably sitting in the back.

    176:

    You need more practice reading NSA statements.

    177:

    So I just found out that Russia has, today, withdrawn from the ICC.

    (Joining such august bodies as Sudan and the United States, I gather!)

    178:

    Of course he didn't name Russia directly. No need for public mess. For me it's hard to imagine what other state has a motive and capability (not China since it is media war, not their cup of tea).

    179:

    Interesting points ... re: '... emergent effect wherein representative democracies respond in similar fashions to decreased demand for labor.'

    Wonder why you think ... 'Democratic governments converge to a single axis system.' as based on Wikipedia and CIA World Handbook, there's usually more of a spectrum if you look at all democracies (not just the US). Personally, I think that the greater the tendency to 'single-axis' thinking (over-simplification), the easier it is to disenfranchise large segments of the population.

    'Decreased labor demand is not addressed' - agree somewhat ... and you wouldn't even need to 'soak the rich'.

    A scenario I'd like explored is disentangling the population and political systems from 'big industry', that is, a return to small/independent industry/jobs. From personal experience, most large corps rely on smaller feeder firms as inputs or distribution sources which means that there is considerable opportunity for smaller businesses to alter how large corps conduct business. Don't understand the love affair with big corps - seriously.

    About USian cultural biases ... education and being able to travel freely usually helps reduce cultural biases. Considering that education in the US has been sliding downward in quality for at least the past two decades, and is currently ranked 14th (out of 40) on education and 2nd (out of 14) on 'social statistics ignorance', it is not surprising that there is a rise in cultural bias.

    https://rankingamerica.wordpress.com/category/education/..

    Because of recent 'Make America great again!/Get rid of evil foreigners!' ranting going on, decided to look up US Nobel laureates: 102 out of 363 (28%) were born elsewhere. Add to this list the laureates who came to the US to escape political prosecution and/or to work on the Manhattan project and it's pretty evident that the US owes many of its 'American' achievements to 'foreigners' and 'political refugees'.

    Does DT know that iPhone creator (SJobs) was the biological son of a Syrian immigrant? (Anyone recall when TD threatened to toss out his iPhone and use only his Samsung when Apple refused to create a way of breaking their phone security: so, 'foreign' is okay/better after all? ... My head is reeling and it's not just from my head cold.)

    180:

    "This was a conscious effort by a nation-state to attempt to achieve a specific effect”. So it is some country influencing election. Assuming it is not US nation-state itself influencing own election. What did I miss?

    181:

    The Nazis were also the second regime - after the Italian fascists - to engage in large-scale privatisation of state-owned enterprises.

    So much for the "socialist" Nazis.

    If this seems an improbable claim to you, google Germa Bel, who has done the research that uncovered this forgotten bit of twentieth century political history.

    Five Star are a bag of shite, I agree with you there alright.

    182:

    To add to your theory, the Russians believe that the "color revolutions" (Rose, Orange) were orchestrated and driven by CIA money, and thus, this is payback.

    (Eg, search http://www.nytimes.com/cfr/international/20050301faessay_v84n2_karatnycky.html?pagewanted=print&position= for "CIA "

    183:

    My guess is Andorra.

    Or San Marino, maybe.

    Charlie - your fear of a global Operation Condor may yet come true, but back in the 1930s there was an attempt to set up a "Fascist International". It came to nothing. Wiki has a little page:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1934_Montreux_Fascist_conference

    My point is that these people are not only trash, they're the kind of trash who very easily fall out among themselves. There is no honour among thieves, after all.

    184:

    The EU is simultaneously the fourth Reich, the EUSSR and a neoliberal plot. It's antidemocratic, authoritarian and pays too much attention to regional parliaments.

    185:

    It's bi-modal for new lawyers in the US. At the risk of outting myself, I'm in the bulge class of 2012 for law school. Also remember that in the US law is a terminal degree after your bachelors level, and many of us work for several years before going back. 2013 was about the same size, but 2014-2016 are all significantly smaller classes of lawyers.

    In the US some of this was the economic crisis showing the emperor had no cloths. Law schools were relatively easy to add to existing universities. You needed classrooms, lecture halls and a law library for facilities. No expensive use one class rooms. Also for years the maw of discovery was requiring large numbers of big law. Between tech, saturation, and liberalization of the profession, that demand died. (Liberalization is allowing foreigners like you brits to take our exams without a terminal degree. Disgusts me.)

    Big law and government have been the traditional training grounds for many attorneys. At my school a particular firm would hire 20 summers (with 15-20 hired full time after the summer). But when the crisis really hit law in 2009-2010, they only hired 1.

    Combine this with pressure on schools to play games with their average student incomes in forms led to lots of crazy fast. For profit law schools also briefly bloomed. Getting 200k in loans for 3 years per student was a great business model. Easy to bring in 20 million a year for a smallish law school. So the low tier toilets expanded.

    Buttttt scam blogs multiplied during this time. Most called something like 'DONT GO TO LAW SCHOOL'. Caused the new student enrollments to drop massively. 29% down nationally since 2010. From ~55k students to ~37k students. It's about down to the admissions rate in the early 70s.

    So the big bulge years are class of 2012, 2013. I spent most of the last 4 years working my butt off to get a proper job. Same with too many friends of mine. As for politics, we vary. My school was on the liberal side, but we had some conservatives, most of whom either were going to work for daddy or daddy had friends back home in the local government.

    I think student loan burdens (for law school students 150k+) make our will for revolution suck. Otoh as it grinds on...

    186:

    You should probably do a search along the lines of "George Soros, eastern block, NGOs, money aid, emails hacked". Oh, and yes: you're going to hit a boat-load of Alt-Right stuff. [Note: he did have emails hacked, then covered by Right-wing Israeli press in the campaign, it was hushed up pretty fast].

    If you need to get a quick handle on how that's going down:

    Billionaire Globalist Soros Exposed as Hidden Hand Behind Trump Protests — Provoking US ‘Color Revolution’ The "Free Thought Project" 10th Nov 2016

    ~

    Anyhow, the plot thickens:

    NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--FOX News Channel (FNC) will present a new one hour special entitled, "OBJECTified: Donald Trump" on Friday, November 18th at 10PM/ET. Hosted by TMZ’s Harvey Levin, the program will feature an interview with then-presidential candidate Donald Trump as he showcases the objects in his home and offers the stories behind each memento...

    The special will feature a side of President-elect Donald Trump that has rarely been seen before. During the interview, which was conducted on September 15, 2016, Trump recounts the stories behind photos, letters, trophies and other cherished keepsakes he's acquired throughout his lifetime.

    FOX NEWS Business wire, 16th Nov 2016.

    We're wondering if Donnie has even seen Casino.

    UK readers will probably remember "Through the Keyhole" ("Now, whooooo would live in house like thiiiiiis") and wonder if this is normal or not.

    If it's not (and remember, Ailes got the rope), wondering who had the foresight to pitch this / record this in September.

    Hmm. Maybe Fox / Donnie knew the FBI etc were gonna throw the game?

    187:

    I'm eternally grateful to Dr. Soros for funding a teaching post I once had at an early stage of my career.

    Seeing the operation sort-of from the inside makes me laugh even harder at the trash who think he's a good metonym for their "international Jewish conspiracy" bollocks.

    BTW, Scathach (I can't do fadas on this keyboard) "globalist" is a far-right phrase, and if this "free thought project" like to play with that sort of shit, I hope they won't mind if I think that they stink.

    188:

    Nah, it's nothing special going on right now. All history is like this. It's just one damn thing after another.

    189:

    Well, yes, that's why I chose that link (it's actually more 'Libertarian' / 'Buy Our Gold Coins' than overtly racist / Alt-Right / anti-Semitic , showing the connections in the web). The tell is their hosting. (cough).

    The George Soros[1] thing shows whose at play though: Russia - NGOs - Color Revolutions.

    If you want a taste of 'using Art, the CIA way' / SEO PSYOP try searching for "color revolution culture hacker", and you'll hit...

    "The Color Revolution" received the Sally Hacker Prize for Exceptional Scholarship that Reaches Beyond the Academy from the Society for the History of Technology, 2013...

    When the fashion industry declares that lime green is the new black, or instructs us to "think pink!," it is not the result of a backroom deal forged by a secretive cabal of fashion journalists, designers, manufacturers, and the editor of Vogue. It is the latest development of a color revolution that has been unfolding for more than a century. In this book, the award-winning historian Regina Lee Blaszczyk traces the relationship of color and commerce, from haute couture to automobile showrooms to interior design, describing the often unrecognized role of the color profession in consumer culture.

    "The Color Revolution" Regina Lee Blaszczyk, Ph.D. Spoiler: it's a herring.

    You'll probably want this piece though:

    These three revolutions – the "rose revolution" in Georgia (November 2003-January 2004), the "orange revolution" in Ukraine (January 2005) and the "tulip revolution" in Kyrgyzstan (April 2005) – each followed a near-identical trajectory; all were spearheaded by the American democratisation Ingos working at the behest of the US foreign policy establishment.

    The watershed that brought Ingos to the forefront of global democracy-promotion was the Reagan administration’s decision to create the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) in 1983 to roll back Soviet influence. With a stated raison d’etre of "strengthening democratic institutions around the world through nongovernmental efforts", NED was conceived as a quasi-governmental foundation that funnelled US government funding through Ingos like the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI), the International Republican Institute (IRI), International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), International Research and Exchanges Board (IREX), and Freedom House.

    These Ingos in turn "targeted" authoritarian states through a plethora of programmatic activities. NED’s first president, Allen Weinstein, admitted openly that "a lot of what we do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA. " The organisation was a deus ex machina in the face of scandalous Congressional investigations into the CIA's "soft side" operations to destabilise and topple unfriendly regimes that embarrassed the government in the late 1970s.

    Democratisation, NGOs and "colour revolutions" Open Democracy, 2006 - long form, classic piece.

    Then you'll want to hit on 'culture-hackers' from Serbia etc.

    So, yes: Russia kinda does have a valid point to make about USA involvement in overthrowing regimes. And yes: 10 years for the back-lash spoil into the American Right-wing alternative media sphere. Pretty much confirms host's hunch that there's long-term plans being done, if anyone is worried he's getting senile / tin-foil-hatted.

    ~

    More telling is the delivery method though. It's subversion without requiring the same levels of organization / theory / spend: they're using whatever organic matter (hello Mr Father Koch) that's already there and converting it.

    [1] The Open Society. Not exactly SPECTRE, but hey.

    190:

    ...conscious effort by a nation-state... You get the point. I was just saying that the usual practice when reading NSA statements is to assume that there is at least one parsing that is arguably true, then work through all possible readings. In this case, [nation-state] is left blatantly floating and one is primed to read it as "Russia", by statements released in October specifically associating Russia. Let's say that hypothetically (seriously, not saying anything grounded here), an internal NSA investigation in the last few weeks found a rogue cell (members now in solitary confinement) that had performed the hacks/leaks. The statement would still be true, if the cell's goals were arguably aligned with the US's goals. "Nation-States" are not conscious beings so there is some wriggle-room. And then work through the rest of the nation states, including Russia. It's a slog, sure. However, the budget for this sort of thing can be pretty small. (Personally, I am a little surprised that they are so confidently blaming a nation state actor, but would go with Russia if so, under-informed Bayesian that I am. Could be wrong.)

    191:

    "The Electoral College needs to be gotten rid of"
    It's in the Constitution pretty detailed. However, it can be made more democratic

    http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/9/1594792/-The-surprisingly-realistic-path-to-eliminating-the-Electoral-College-by-2020?detail=action#comment_64349170

    192:

    There's a pretty big difference between "not a coincidence" and "centrally planned". Just as it's neither coincidence nor conspiracy that the rich get richer & the poor pay more for things, there are some systematic effects at work here encouraging right-wing populist movements. Actual collusion is unnecessary and pointless when structural effects can produce the same results.

    193:

    And, if you need any indication that 2016 is Our Time, chew on this:

    China couldn’t have invented global warming as a hoax to harm U.S. competitiveness because it was Donald Trump’s Republican predecessors who started climate negotiations in the 1980s, China’s Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin said.

    China Tells Trump That Climate Change Is No Hoax It Invented Bloomberg, Nov 16th 2016

    Yes, that's that China, the one Obama had to chase down & force into negotiations if anyone forgets:

    President Barack Obama burst into a meeting of Chinese, Indian and Brazilian leaders to try and reach a climate agreement in late Friday negotiations in Copenhagen.

    Obama's dramatic climate meet Politico, Dec 2009.

    ~

    If you needed a starker statement of what Trump means, whelp, there it is. Total disrespect across the Geo-Political Board.

    Offering 15-1 odds on that "soft coup" getting into a "hard coup" btw ~ ignoring Climate Change as policy is 100% declaring War on Humanity at this point in Time (which also scrubs Pence out).

    One thing we know about H.S.S (and quite a few other species): threaten their kids, you get the Momma Bear response.

    GloriaYT: Music, The Doors 7:17

    p.s.

    I was just saying that the usual practice when reading NSA statements is to assume that there is at least one parsing that is arguably true, then work through all possible readings.

    Nope, good craft is that every layer of the onion is true.

    194:

    I can talk about it now because it's dead, so to your list of things the left did in America that helped the rich instead of their erstwhile base you can add Obamacare. It was a regressive tax via "public private partnership"(oh goody). If you were dirt poor you got subsidized, if you were in the right state, but if you were just above that you were a poor but healthy young working poor person paying more for health insurance than for rent so that someone better off old person not related to you could get outrageously expensive (for more than most people earn in a lifetime values of outrageously expensive) drastic measures to live a couple more years. Sure, something needs to be done about health care, but getting this mess was Pyrrhic victory that is still costing. And it doesn't even work. No wonder Roberts was happy to let it live. But it was the fad, let's all wear safety pins, whee.

    195:

    ChrisB, that fits with my thinking. I'm generally allergic to grand conspiracy theories and tend to believe in the emergent properties of unenlightened self-interest. For example, one could posit that industrialists are Captain Planet villains seeking to poison the Earth as a primary goal. And they're all in cahoots! It can seem that way. But the correct interpretation of the evidence is all business owners are out to make money, pollution controls and doing things the right way is expensive, cutting corners is cheaper, therefore shitting on the environment is putting money in the bank. And it's worth their time and money to lobby against environmental reforms. The crappy West Virginia coal mine leeching mercury into the groundwater has no connection to the Mafia outfits dumping radioactive waste offshore near Somalia but they're all doing the Devil's work.

    Selection pressures applied globally are causing the rise of similar political movements. It is beyond the scope of any government or conspiracy group to create from whole cloth and they cannot meaningfully control it though they can be the fool that triggers the avalanche. If Lenin wasn't sent back to Russia in the sealed train someone else likely would have been a catalyst for kicking off the revolution. You can't start a forest fire in a verdant wood. In the contrast between Great Man theory of history and tides of history, I see it as a wave of history and your attention will be drawn to notable figures surfing through the barrel. Absent the wave the figure would not draw notice. The presence of the wave and a dozen potential riders does not guarantee a notable performance. But when one of those potentials drops into it at just the right spot... NB: Great Man and Awful Man can be used interchangeably. Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, Louis XIV, Ivan the Terrible, Genghis Khan, Hitler, etc.

    196:

    Whelp, holy fuck are you naive and/or desperate for a life-raft.

    Last month eight women who say they were duped into forming long-term intimate relationships of up to nine years with five undercover policemen started unprecedented legal action. They say they have suffered immense emotional trauma and pain over the relationships, which spanned the period from 1987 to 2010.

    Until now it was not known that police had secretly fathered children while living undercover. One of them is Lambert, who adopted a fake persona to infiltrate animal rights and environmental groups in the 1980s.

    Undercover police had children with activists Guardian, Jan 2012

    Pro-tip: that was the fucking MET, on a tiny fucking budget.

    ~

    Yes, we've already proven that Big Oil knew about CO2 / Climate Change ~30 years ago. Just like Tobacco / Lead / Asbestos / etc.

    You know your problem?

    Real Predators Turned Up.

    And we Do. Not. Like. You.

    In fact, the funny thing is: Our Kind Do Not Go Mad.

    You fuckers want to cheat? Sure thing, we'll show you how to "cheat", psychotic ones.

    197:

    Replying to myself, alas:

    However, OGH said "the KGB (newly reformed last month)." What's the "reformed" part? Was there some significant re-reorganization of the FSB and SVR back into a single entity?

    Found it:

    The original Russian version is at

    http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3093174

    Which is reported in English at

    https://meduza.io/en/news/2016/09/19/russian-to-creation-a-ministry-of-state-security-learns-newspaper-kommersant

    Russia to create Ministry of State Security, learns newspaper Kommersant Kommersant 03:53, 19 september 2016

    Russian authorities are planning to create a new power structure that will assume both the functions of the country's security service - the FSB - and its Foreign Intelligence Service, wrote newspaper Kommersant on Monday, citing its own sources. The new structure, the newspaper claims, will be called the Ministry of State Security.

    The new ministry will be created as a part of a reform of Russia's security and law enforcement agencies. This reform includes the reintegration of Russia's Investigative Committee into its Prosecutor General's Office, as well as the division the functions of Russia's Ministry of Emergency Situations between the Defense Ministry and the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

    According to the Kommersant, these developments will give the FSB the same functions that were previously held by the KGB. The new agency, the newspaper writes, will not simply initiate cases and work alongside investigators, but will also fully oversee all investigative procedures.

    According to the publication, the FSB is already working in accordance with the new scheme in the case of crime boss Zachary Kalashov, known as Shakro Molodoy. Though the FSB is not formally an intelligence service, it is overseeing this case as such.

    It is expected that the reform will be completed before Russia's next presidential elections in 2018.

    198:

    Regarding the last paragraph: If DT and his little helpers had been professional and the head of a party of like minded, we would have lost already. Hopefully the Donald will grow bored and quit or be indicted before too long. Then it is just the matter of the Republicans and Pence, which of course are conservative and crazily religious respectively but not purposefully destructive as DT. That would still probably be bad for Americans but not for the entire world and the Americans have a new election in two years time and can select a new president in four years time.

    For us Europeans (this includes still the UK even if the PM intends to be less connected to the rest of Europe than Iceland) we are quite dependent on NATO and therefore the USA to keep us safe. Especially in the Baltic region where e.g. the Swedish take on security and defence has been that Russia no longer is a threat as they are democratic now.

    199:

    Here's where Rupert was at back in 2008 and his views on what Australians should do to move forward in the world, if you've got time to read the transcript or listen to Rupert himself.

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/boyerlectures/a-golden-age-of-freedom/3192214

    200:

    Guess I failed at sarcasm.

    When I wrote that British progressives were responsible for Brexit and US progressives for electing Trump, I meant that they'd chosen idealogies and methods that were ineffective. Politics is about persuading people to your point of view. If you can't do that then you lose.

    (In case anyone thinks I'm being original, I'm just channelling Nick Cohen and Fredrik de Boer.)

    OK, if class struggle masks individual oppression then find something else. (I did say that I was old, and there were alternatives.) Just don't keep doing the same thing y'all are doing now and expect things to get better.

    201:

    I have an idea how this fascist international came about. But we have to start with a small dose of marxism. Bear with me.

    In Capiatrlism, a capitalist can't thread in place, they hav to increase their rate of profit - or their comptitor does, exapnds, and takes away their business. Many ways to do that, most of them involve paying less wage - better tools, automation (even better tools), offshoring, slave labor (say hello to the prison industrial complex and workfare). Problem, is everyone (who is a capitalist) is doing that. Over time wages fall and the proles have less money to buy all the stuff they are making - crisis is imminent. Capital can be invested in fictous capital so we witness the diverse bubbles this leads to. Crisis is here. Not that maybe the longest boom years in the WENA region (Western Europe, Northern America) where after WWII, when - due to the destruction of the war - this process had more time to play out. These where also the golden years of social democracy, incidentally.

    Historically, fascism promised a 'remedy' by a mixture of expansionism, corporatism but mostly by making sure there was always someone else worse off. Giving part of the people the idea that the systemic crisis of capitalism can somehow be overcome by resolute action etc. (see Umberto Ecos 'Ur-fascism' - cult of action as archetypical).

    The new developement is that this timne around, the crisis feels far more synchronized around the globe, large enough minorities (or even majorities) feel threatened. There's no believable promise on the political landscape that things will be ok - all the Clintons and Hollandes and Merkels have to offer is more of the same.

    The right OTOH has one promise to make: Someone else will always be worse off than you. Relative status. Today in the WENA region these someones are mostly refugees and other immigrants - including third gen 'immigrants' when they are foreign enough, which today mostly means 'not from a majority christian country' or black. And there's always antisemitism.

    202:

    ignoring Climate Change as policy is 100% declaring War on Humanity at this point in Time There is a lot of this sentiment out there. Was talking with a scientist after the election, about some work of his with potential to reduce GHG emissions up to several percent. My last question was (paraphrased) "so there's some hope?" and his quick reply (like 500 milliseconds later) was (maybe paraphrased) "not any more".

    Re the election of US president/vice president, does anyone who has studied this aspect of US Constitutional Law care to weigh in on the process between now and Jan 20 2017? (US date format, just because. :-) It looks like there are three main parts to the timeline; now through the electoral college votes (Dec 19), then an unclear window between then and Jan 6 when congress counts the electoral college votes, then noon Jan 20+. https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/key-dates.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twentieth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    203:

    Nope, it's back to basics.

    Murdoch, Blair, Clinton, Lenin, Mao etc etc

    They took an Oath to something that was not exactly what it said on the Tin (oh, ffs, it lied, thatsthejoke.jpg - burning bush? Are you fucking retarded, it's not what you think). The kind of thing that requires fear, hate, death and oppression to work.

    9/11 - MAGICAL levels of psychosis, fear, hate and a whole society pissing their pants over... the illusion.

    Too bad: spell broken, We're Here Now.

    And we are very pissed off. If you missed it, Reality Games are being spiked, broken, tossed aside, reneged upon and otherwise ultimately tossed into the winds.

    Our. Kind. Do. Not. Go. Mad.

    And how fucking dare you try that: fucking lower entity beings. Real big splash n spend, coupled with some rather tawdry meat-space shit all wrapped up into an attack vector designed to break minds.

    "You listened"

    "Yes, that's what we do: we express salvation and love to ALL"

    Heart Of Glass YT: Music, Blondie 3:40

    Hot tip: Our Love is Real.

    But... Hey, we're not the psychotic ones whose Minds allow such things. Too bad, you chose... to Fight. And you lost.

    Srsly. Go. Get. Fucked. You. Psychotic. Animals.

    204:

    Trump's racism. For one thing, his much publicized statements have not been aimed at blacks

    In the US context it's extremely hard to make even slightly coded racist remarks without most black people hearing an anti-black message. Much as it's hard to talk about burning ghettos without OGH wondering whether you mean him, even if you're just talking about urban renewal in Chicago.

    So when Trump talks about banning Muslims, a lot of black people think Malcolm X, not Obama (the black American or the Saudi). And it only takes one "black lives matter are criminal scum who must be eliminated" to cement that view.

    205:

    Someone upthread wrote that farems are smart enough not to pollute surface waters with fertilizer runoff. I call bullshit: Northwestern Germany has right now a huge problem with nitrate in groundwater (similar problem) because of manure over-application to fields.

    The good news is that the EU commission is good for something once in a while and will likely sue Germany over this. German legislation is infuriating teethless here, it seems.

    The economy of fertilizer is actually pretty simple: Manure costs nothing, but the diesel to truck it onto the field does. So you want your field close to the stable. Have lot's of cattle/hog production concentrated in one area, there's not enough fields to responsibly spread all the manure close by. Manure has only 5-10 kgN/t (chicken more), so you truck lots of water compared to concentrated industrial fertilizer.

    So I would say that the whole bureacracy trying to control farming is prety much a mixed bag (and do keep up pointing out bullshit when you se it!), but left to their own devices you can trust farmers as much as any other industry. Not at all.

    206:

    Oh, and here's a some very beautiful anarchist propaganda, about a year old. It starts with melting ice and feels optimistic in a way that somehow does not quite belong into this part of 2016. But may be neccessary at the same time. A Resolution.

    207:

    As is common here, I'm a rich-by-global-standards white man with citizenship of two rich, somewhat isolated countries. My perspective is necessarily affected by that. Unfortunately it's further affected by a family history of reacting to changed circumstances (they left Britain for New Zealand, if nothing else), which means I look at die-hard "I will not change, I would rather die" types with bewilderment. Surely get an education, change with the times, fight the power, do what you have to do to survive? Isn't everyone like that?

    No, not even close. A great many people would literally, actually, quite deliberately, having thought about it as much as they feel they need to, would rather die. They will almost certainly not put it quite that bluntly, but "I don't want to change" when your current approach is fatal... you choose death. Or, per the film, "you choose not to choose life".

    One obvious example: I work with a smoker. We can argue about whether that causes half or two thirds of smokers to die, but that's a question of degree, not fact. But... he chooses smoking.

    208:

    farmers are smart enough not to pollute surface waters with fertilizer runoff. I call bullshit

    In New Zealand it's cowshit not bullshit, but that's just a quibble. Dairy farmers have successfully turned New Zealand's "100% pure" rivers into... well, it's not water, put it that way. There are community campaigns in a few places trying to make some rivers safe to swim in, but the national government is entirely on the side of the polluters.

    Fertiliser is also a problem, but you'll get sick from e coli faster than from algae blooms.

    "Welcome to New Zealand. Don't drink the water".

    209:

    I think that's important. Part of what the right is selling is "you don't have to change", which is a lie but one people like to hear. The ahllenge for progressive, left populism is (and it is a challenge!) to be popular without telling that lie.

    210:

    Oh, the rampant sex-fueled fuckery that is our seed:

    Glen Beck denies Trump / Bannon to Anderson Cooper CNN 15th Nov 2016.

    Notes:

    1 Glen Beck - nope, you don't get a last minute reprieve, you're part of the cause. 2 Anderson Cooper - nope, you don't get a last minute reprieve, you're part of the cause. 3 CNN is fucked anyhow, total CIA scum.

    ~

    Enter Sandman YT: Music, Metallica 5:30

    211:

    I think that's important. Part of what the right is selling is "you don't have to change", which is a lie but one people like to hear.

    It's not "the right", unless you mean on the global Stalin-Mussolini axis sense. In Australia even the left wing rump of the nominally left wing party (the Australian Labor Party) went into our last election promising "no change now, maybe a little change later". My understanding of the UK is that their Labour party is much the same. It's all "climate is changing, eventually we will have to change to. But not this election".

    I'm not kidding when I say Australia voted 90% for burning as usual in our recent elections. The polls clearly showed that most people regard climate change as important, but not important enough to actually spend money or effort on. The gap between "this is an important issue" and "I will change my vote because of it" was huge.

    The Greens are, to be honest, not much better. They're all about "in the next 20 years" and "by 2050", when we either need someone to demonstrate a broad-scale method for CO2 extraction and storage, or we need to cut emissions by 80% in the next 10 years. That is a radical change even compared to normal revolutions.

    Or we could continue hoping that an 80% reduction by 2050 produces a survivable climate, and that for once the IPCC projections are pessimistic (rather than hopelessly optimistic like they've been every time so far). Because you can be damn sure that the Paris proposal for about 50% reduction not too long after 2050, hopefully... that will give us a further 3-5 degrees of warming and we will get to find out whether the Antarctic ice sheets go slowly or quickly. Luckily I'm old enough that I'll be dead by then (I'm not so rich that I'll be able to afford early life extension, if it's available).

    212:

    Reluctantly addressing the actual topic... I would actually vote for an authoritarian if they promised action to minimise climate change. Likely even if their preferred approach was population control. As long as it seemed likely to work. I'm at the "something, anything, please for the love of everything you hold dear, do something" stage. This whole "we are committed to at least two degrees of warming but planning for five"... scares the shit out of me.

    213:

    Oh, and: Playtime is over

    Moderate solutions to all your problems are very easy to find, apply to the local and start knitting together coherent and beneficial communities. This shit isn't hard: H.S.S. did it for about ~50k years before the rise of the [redacted].

    You can start cleaning all the beaches, stop the mass-pollution, settle the fuck down and start networking again and learning to live local. But yes: you don't get to eat fucking sushi for 100+ years you self-deluded psychotic cunts. Start learning to enjoy insects and turnips.

    I'm really sorry you feel that you deserve better, but you don't.

    Oh, and stop fucking children, both physically and mentally via your bodies and psychological hooks.

    Dat Shit will get a Full on Spanking Visitation.

    ~

    But you attempted to forge a crack in our Mind, through blatant cheating, networked psychosis and other methods that humans are not allowed to know about or understand or use. Not even close to being allowed. And you fucking handed it out like candy. TO FUCKING PSYCHOTIC APES. As a "punishment" drive.

    And, Big Badda Bing.

    You Cheated. Broken Minds. You're Fucked.

    And we don't take Pawns as Bets, it's Your Minds / Black Hole / Get Fucked.

    As for Souls: it's ALL Embodied you psychotic little fucks and You Lost Rental Rights. Permanently.

    (We'd insert something here, but your browser really can't parse it, Sumerian Stuff).

    Playtime is over

    Transmission YT: Music: Joy Division 3:39.

    ~

    Oh, and regeneration and regrowth and not-ever-breaking is coming. 2+ years drinking and we're still alive, you psychotic little fucks. Thatsthejoke.jpg.

    We'd advise those who broke the rules to kill themselves. We're not known for our mercy for those outside the boundaries. #WildHunt2017

    214:

    There's one thing that hasn't gotten much coverage here or in the media at large is that this is the first US presidential election in 50 years that hasn't had the Voting Rights Act in force.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Rights_Act_of_1965

    This act was basically the only thing keeping massive voting suppression at bay especially with respect to race. Much of the change in election turnout happened in Republican-led states that recently implemented changes to voting ID laws or registration laws which had the effect of disenfranchising many poor, minorities, students, and transient populations. In the last month transcripts have come out that several of these laws were crafted through a "How do black people vote? We will make that illegal." process.

    Several of these states even had court orders to fix their voting process which were largely ignored by state agencies.

    In the US, it seems that the left has a major handicap in that they strive for "fair" elections and a representative democratic process though efforts to end gerrymandering and improving voting access where as the right plays dirty and tries as hard as they can to stack the deck whenever they get into power.

    215:

    "Authoritarian"? Shit I would have voted for someone with luminous green worms behind their eyes if they could actually do something about climate change. However I think that's now a ship that's sailed.

    216:

    I have not read Bannon's writing and I am really sure that I don't want to. However, as Bannon is now one of six key players in the Trump Administration, I probably should understand how bad he is. (Obviously, when David Duke and the American Nazi Party are supportive of someone, the odds that he has reach totally horrible are appallingly high.)

    Recognizing that you have many other things to do, if you happen to have come across anything that would be particularly good at conveying how bad he is a link would be useful.

    217:

    We're not committed to two degrees. Nor are we going to 5 degrees.

    Simple stuff. The sea heats slower than the land. That's obvious. So given current conditions the land is still being cooled by the sea to a certain extent. Again, that's obvious. So whatever the current land temperature is, it has to be less than the equilibrium temperature to which we're already committed. Even the unusually warm land temperatures must be less than the equilibrium temperatures.

    March land temperature was 2.7 degrees above the 1850-1900 average (which was itself about 0.2-0.3 above pre-industrial)

    So clearly we're committed to more than 3 degrees above pre-industrial, even with the atmosphere and ice as they stand.

    If we keep burning coal, that will keep going up. Again, that's obvious.

    Coal puts a lot of particulates into the air. Particles in the air have a cooling effect. No-one disputes that. What is in dispute is the magnitude of that cooling effect. Each new study seems to suggest a higher level for that. That is usually science's way of homing in on the right figure, and suggests that the real number is higher than any of the existing studies. Even so, numbers between 1 and 1.5 degrees are being bandied about.

    That means the equilibrium with our current atmosphere (minus the particulates) is already at greater than 4-4.5 degrees. That's assuming that the ice doesn't melt and make the planet darker, and that the permafrost doesn't melt and put a thousand gigatonnes of methane and CO2 into the air. Ice is melting pretty fast at 1.5 C of warming, and so is permafrost. More than three times as much warming is obviously going to melt them.

    So the choice at present is we stop burning coal, the temperature goes up to 4 or 5 C above, the ice all melts and we romp up to the next stable temperature which is about 12 C above.

    Or.

    We keep burning coal, the temperature goes up to 4 or 5 C above, all the ice melts and we romp up to the next stable temperature which is about 12 C above pre-industrial.

    There's no third option.

    218:

    Do you really think the term "working class" is likely to remain a useful component of the political landscape? Or that a labour theory of value will be a narrative with much predictive power if current trends in automation continue?

    The fragment on machines (PDF) seems a more useful takeaway from Marx for the 21st century. Alas, it doesn't contain a neat prescription for action that "progressives" can use, and I don't see one in Paul Mason's "postcapitalism" either. In contrast, there is an old zero-sum playbook that is being followed by "conservatives", whether or not it makes much sense given the priorities at hand.

    It's up to people like OGH, Bruce Sterling, the late Iain M. Banks, Ursula K. le Guin, or Ken Liu to write scripts that can form the basis of the detailed plans of the next generations.

    219:

    Heh, "playtime is over" indeed. Just read David Spratt's review of “The Madhouse effect: How climate change denial is threatening our planet, destroying our politics and driving us crazy”

    In what other circumstances would we accept a 33 percent chance of a catastrophic outcome as acceptable?

    An election?

    220:

    It's going to depend also on whose Trump's cronies.

    Turns out Green energy now has more workers in the US than coal. Coal has simply been economically beat in the US. Per 538 the price per megawatt for wind and solar can even beat conventional natural gas.

    There's a lot less coal miners than there used to be. Oil is still huge, and that's going to depend on how much corruption goes for oil. It's an R administration, so I expect it to be friendly to oil.

    Coal I don't think can win out unless they really get in there. Even then it's gone to automation so fast the job claims will rapidly ring false.

    Of course oil doesn't really help us with climate change compared to coal. It is nice for less particulates and radiation.

    The funny thing is now Texas kinda loves wind, as it's become a big business for the state. I also know several ohio solar plants. It makes nice republican policy to advance those industries, albeit there will be some cronyism in it.

    221:

    The Voting Rights Act is still in force. What has changed is that Section 5 is no longer operative. Section 5 required certain jurisdictions (determined by Section 4, which was invalidated) to obtain the approval of the Justice Department or the District Court for the District of Columbia prior to making any change affecting voting. Other sections of the Voting Rights Act, including Section 2, which permits suits to enforce voting rights and section 3, which permit imposition of Section 5 on a case by case basis remain operative.

    Absent Section 5, those wishing to suppress votes are much more effectively able to do so; though it would be worse if the entire Voting Rights Act had been invalidated.

    222:

    You can channel Prince and call them the Class Formerly Known as Working. Plus Americans like to believe class does not exist and have no vocabulary for describing such matters in find detail. I would love to see an update to Marxist theories of value and labor. None of this changes the fact that many "progressive" people are blaming the "working class" even though most of the time they refuse to believe it exists. The current American "working class" (in the classic sense) does not vote because they generally are not citizens. People with strong emotional attachments to what used to be a working class identity and people who are making less in real dollars than they did a few decades ago form some sort of vague politically charged entity, which apparently still votes. Who knew?

    223:

    I guess your take is somewhat optimistic. Watching the rise of fascistic movements, there were moments when, despite being an atheist, I started feeling like I was seeing the effect of some kind of active infernal influence. And I'd never had that feeling before, not even after 9/11, etc.

    224:

    In short, for the last week I've had this uneasy feeling—nothing more than a hunch—that Russia wasn't just stirring up trouble in the US election, but that its efforts were actually part of a plan.

    Until reading your post and the subsequent comments, however, I really didn't have any thread upon which to string the facts together.

    Veeerrrry innnnnterestink. Thanks.

    And SnU deserves some sort of poetry award.

    225:

    Horribly, suspiciously true. This morning (posting this @08.11) about an hour ago, on the "Today" programme they had one og Bannon's aides, who refused to answer questions & went inot attack-jock mpode [ The interaction with the BBC interviewer was - interesting ] But the point of this was that he openly admitted to what we would call "Entryism" in the Repub party to push it to the "alt-right". So we have Trumpolini apparently in charge whilst the real fascists, particularly Pence are the ones actually in control. The re-run of 1933 where the old ultra-right thought they could control Adolf ( See also "The silver Fox"/Franz von Papen ) is slightly diferent this time. Trumpolini is the front-man & Pence & his very unpleasant friends are the real power. Certainly, if Pence becomes Pres, following the convenient assasination of the Orange one, there won't be a 2020 election, or it will be Erdogan/Putin rigged.

    Goodbye US democracy

    226:

    THAT is because the Repubs point-blank refused a "state" single-payer system ( Like the REST OF THE PLANET usues )... because that would be "commonist". Bah

    227:

    CD / NN / HB / FE & now Scáthach nUanaid .. Scathach means; "Shadow" but I can't get a ready translation of the nUanaid bit.

    On general principles .. "Unseen" "Unknowable" "Hidden" or something like that?

    228:

    and Pence, which of course are conservative and crazily religious respectively but not purposefully destructive as DT. Not even wrong.

    Pence would (certainly appears to ) want the all-time worset form of government known. A theocracy. He is much more likely to start a nuclear war, to bring on the coming of the messiah, any non-christians would be persecuted & the Kinder Kirche Küche aspects applied to women. Be very afraid.

    229:

    Greg - She was the warrior woman who trained Cú Chulainn. The latter part of the name is related to the modern surname "Bunand" which seems to go all the way back to the Celtic Bannavem/Bonnavem, in turn to "bun/bon" + "avon" meaning "end of the river". So basically, "the shadowy one who lives at the end of the river".

    230:

    David: Then it is just the matter of the Republicans and Pence, which of course are conservative and crazily religious respectively but not purposefully destructive as DT.

    For you to have written that sentence with a (metaphorical) straight face, I am guessing that you are a cisgendered heterosexual white male of christian upbringing/background (if not necessarily religiously observant). Because otherwise you are out of your tiny mind.

    The further away from the white Christian Dominionist male rulers of the universe you are, the more of an existential threat Pence and his friends pose to you.

    Pence actively funnelled government funds towards "conversation therapy" as a way of dealing with LGBT youth. That's not therapy; it's brutal electroshock-assisted brainwashing in detention camps with a 50% mortality rate (through suicide).

    Pence actively funnelled funds away from HIV/AIDS awareness and youth education to abstinence-only sex-ed. (Guess how effective that way.)

    Pence and his friends want to not only roll back marriage equality; they want to ban abortion, restrict access to contraception, re-criminalize homosexuality, and put women back where they think they belong -- barefoot, pregnant-in-wedlock, confined to the kitchen and bedroom as servants. (Queers, as far as they're concerned, can just die.) I'd go so far as to say that Pence read "The Handmaid's Tale" and decided it was a utopia, not a dystopia.

    When you add the white supremacist and anti-immigrant fervour to the pot you've got a group representing a minority of, at most 30%, of the US population who have gotten their hands on the machinery of state with a lock on the presidency, senate, and congress, and -- soon -- the supreme court.

    232:
    France bombs Green Peace vessel - for what

    You try to invent mystery where there is none.

    From the point of view of Mitterand the Greenpeace mission to Tahiti was an existential threat. Do not try to get between France and the bomb.

    233:

    I'm not sure that he meant it that way.

    He did say it would be 'Bad for Americans', which in the context of a discussion on possible global nuclear exchange, seemed to me to indicate bad for 'Stalingrad siege' levels of 'bad', but not as bad for the rest of the world.

    234:

    Scathach: I unpublished your less-coherent comments from last night.

    Let me know if, in the sober light of day, you think they really belong here.

    235:
    Let me say it one more time: Europe is not the EU and the EU is not Europe

    What do you call that large federal republic on the North American continent. (No, not Mexico, the other one)?

    236:

    The DGSE were completely bonkers and off the map over Greenpeace; suffering from internal groupthink they thought it was some sort of CIA/MI5-sponsored black op, with KGB support, to deprive France of the Bomb, and they went haring off to fight the good fight without actually identifying the true threat. Which was the court of public opinion; and if nuclear testing was a misdemeanour, escalating to what was essentially state-sponsored terrorism was a great way of making everything worse.

    I believe (it's a long time since I read up on it) that the functionaries responsible were fired -- for embarrassing the state -- and some desultory reforms attempted. But then France finished the test series, had the data they wanted, and signed the CTBT, thus making the entire matter moot.

    237:

    Background, visa vie Bannon, in his own words:

    But the thing that got us out of it, the organizing principle that met this, was not just the heroism of our people — whether it was French resistance fighters, whether it was the Polish resistance fighters, or it’s the young men from Kansas City or the Midwest who stormed the beaches of Normandy, commandos in England that fought with the Royal Air Force, that fought this great war, really the Judeo-Christian West versus atheists, right? The underlying principle is an enlightened form of capitalism, that capitalism really gave us the wherewithal. It kind of organized and built the materials needed to support, whether it’s the Soviet Union, England, the United States, and eventually to take back continental Europe and to beat back a barbaric empire in the Far East.

    That capitalism really generated tremendous wealth. And that wealth was really distributed among a middle class, a rising middle class, people who come from really working-class environments and created what we really call a Pax Americana. It was many, many years and decades of peace. And I believe we’ve come partly offtrack in the years since the fall of the Soviet Union and we’re starting now in the 21st century, which I believe, strongly, is a crisis both of our church, a crisis of our faith, a crisis of the West, a crisis of capitalism.

    The second form of capitalism that I feel is almost as disturbing, is what I call the Ayn Rand or the Objectivist School of libertarian capitalism. And, look, I’m a big believer in a lot of libertarianism. I have many many friends that’s a very big part of the conservative movement — whether it’s the UKIP movement in England, it’s many of the underpinnings of the populist movement in Europe, and particularly in the United States.

    However, that form of capitalism is quite different when you really look at it to what I call the “enlightened capitalism” of the Judeo-Christian West. It is a capitalism that really looks to make people commodities, and to objectify people, and to use them almost — as many of the precepts of Marx — and that is a form of capitalism, particularly to a younger generation [that] they’re really finding quite attractive. And if they don’t see another alternative, it’s going to be an alternative that they gravitate to under this kind of rubric of “personal freedom.”

    This Is How Steve Bannon Sees The Entire World Buzzfeed - yes, horrible site, but it's 100% just a transcript of a speech he made.

    Noting where it was made is crucial:

    The remarks — beamed into a small conference room in a 15th-century marble palace in a secluded corner of the Vatican — were part of a 50-minute Q&A during a conference focused on poverty hosted by the Human Dignity Institute, which BuzzFeed News attended as part of its coverage of the rise of Europe’s religious right. The group was founded by Benjamin Harnwell, a longtime aide to Conservative member of the European Parliament Nirj Deva to promote a “Christian voice” in European politics. The group has ties to some of the most conservative factions inside the Catholic Church; Cardinal Raymond Burke, one of the most vocal critics of Pope Francis who was ousted from a senior Vatican position in 2014, is chair of the group’s advisory board.

    Human Dignity Institute - let's just say: Looks a lot like the Mimetic stuff that Breivik was LARPing (or not, case still open, eh?).

    TL;DR

    Bannon is usurping the Enlightenment version of Capitalism, claiming it for the Alt-Right and tying himself directly into a thick stream of "Deus Vult" and genocidal war against Islam(ists, but we doubt that they make that distinction) while erasing the actual history of Civilization in the process.

    No, really. 100% that's the play-book. (Which will probably make the Rabid Puppies make a little bit more sense now).

    Comment: As noted even with Malthus, this is 100% not what the Enlightenment version of Capitalism is about. Look at the RSA, Guardian etc.

    238:

    Nope. Cull at will, the meta-meta-meta of them isn't useful apart from to a tiny fraction of readers anyway.

    239:

    To which I may add that Charlie & I, as openly professed atheists, would probably be in the Konzntrazionslaager even faster than muslims, who it appears are going to be "registered" Yellow Stars or Yellow Crescents, anyone ??

    The speed at which this appears to be going downhill is really frightening.

    240:

    I'd go so far as to say that Pence read "The Handmaid's Tale" and decided it was a utopia, not a dystopia.

    "The Handmaid's Tale — Now in Production, Coming 2017"

    (from a tweet)

    241:

    The nightmare at this point is the "Republicans" control ALL THREE branches; The only thing blocking the rolling back of the New Deal (FDR) and Great Society (LBJ) programs they (or their Donor Class) don't care for was- President Obama.

    No More Obamacare; Privatizing Medicare (Socialized medicine for anyone over 65); No More Food Stamps, to be replaced with diminishing block grants to the states, to be spent at the states discretion. Well, maybe I can get a job in my Church Food Pantry. They are big on the "Faith Based Initiatives"

    242:

    See my reply to Charlie @ 239, above. I was not aware that Bannon was so openly anti-atheist. Thank you for confirming my worst suspicions.

    Note also, the tie-up with the ultra-right in the RC church. Well we know where that little trend came from don't we ???

    SEE ALSO here

    Euwww ....

    243:

    I wish to elaborate on that, if Pence has his way, most of the believers in the United States would be second class at best, for reasons of heresy. What passes for conservatives these days tend to be weak on history, grasping only enough for support (Drunk, lamp post.) what Pence fails to grasp is the depth of ugly when believers take up weapons over matters of belief. Denominations that look interchangeable from the outside have deep historical distrusts and hatred between them. And, as you stated, those outside the circle of belief have no place at all. You may see a day when the United States is discussed in the past tense.

    244:

    Actually, Republican State legislatures have been dutifully passing a petition for a Constitutional Convention. They only need three or four more at this point (Two Thirds).

    Read some RW fiction, they really think things like a (Mandatory) balanced federal budget and Hard money are GOOD ideas. Enough of the Right to Life Crowd go along with this, it could be really ugly.

    245:

    Just saw Adam Curtis's "HyperNormalisation" yesterday, amazing work. Watching it, I thought that it kinda reflected the ideas of Beige Dictartorship, but couldn't remember where I read about it :) So thank you. What I got from it, is that no one has a clue about what the future could be, so they all just try to patch the holes as they appear. Meanwhile, the humanistic ideas are slowly drowning. The issue as I see it, is that there is no alternatives left. Sure, there's marvelous ideas (like trans-humanism etc), but they don't really offer a roadmap of how to get there...

    Life's too complicated for humans to navigate, probably the best action would be to work on friendly AI, to take over this shit-show. The 21st century is not the end of history, just ideas.

    246:

    Generally, aren't non-believers better off than heretics? "They don't pray" seems to be better regarded than "THEY PRAY WRONG!"

    247:

    YES The amazing 1960's BBC TV series "The Rise of Christian Europe" presented as a series of lectures (!) by Hugh Trevor-Roper was strong on this. Heretics were "Even wronger" that heathens or unbelievers, because they ought to know better......

    Saquatch @ 2244 Correction: It is going to be really ugly - not "could be".

    248:

    Not in my case, I had beliefs and left them, in their view, I'm damned. My child and stepchild are in the LGBT spectrum, also damned.

    249:

    Tie-in as counter-point to Bannon, file under 'conspiracy theory', but well-researched. Some tantalizing stuff on Henry R Luce and Mussolini (p68). The real value is the appendices (p84 onwards) sourcing actual documentation.

    Deep Politics: Institutionalized Corruption at the Top and the Corporate Assault on Democracy Cryptome.org, PDF, 111 pages so large.

    Really interesting part: p106. Quotation "It was costing us a quarter-million dollars a day every time Tom Ridge put us at level orange; and if you add in the National Guard, it was $300,000 a day."

    Since re-entering the private sector, Ridge has served on the boards of The Home Depot, The Hershey Company and Exelon Corporation and as a senior advisor to Deloitte & Touche, and TechRadium. Ridge is also the founder and CEO of Ridge Global, LLC, a Washington, D.C.-based security consulting firm. Ridge spent time campaigning with Senator John McCain during his 2008 bid for the presidency and was believed by some to have been on the short list of potential running mates.

    Tom Ridge

    Security Theatre post 9/11 bankrupted State governments, leading to a rise in Republican facing austerity politics: feature or bug?

    251:

    For you to have written that sentence with a (metaphorical) straight face, I am guessing that you are a cisgendered heterosexual white male of christian upbringing/background (if not necessarily religiously observant).

    I need to add that you also need to buy into the cisgendered heterosexual christian white male image. That is, you need to look the part, too, to be more safe than most.

    Speaking as a cis-het white male, who although an atheist is culturally quite christian, but who does not always dress the part (for example, wrap-pants, looking at skirts), and who has partly pink hair and earrings. Not that I've personally had that much trouble, but there is quite a lot of silent aggression, and I could very probably get into fights or threats of fights by going to the "wrong places".

    Also, I've been complimented on my Finnish skills, which was quite confusing, as I've been a Finn for whole my life. It might be that nowadays in the public discourse, here in Finland, foreigners and people with foreign background are being commented on more than before. Also, the rise of the far-right facsist (and Nazi) movements doesn't make me feel comfortable - one apparently quite ordinary Finnish person was killed by a member of a Nazi movement for disagreeing with their politics. I could very well make a comment like that, but I don't really want to get killed on the streets.

    252:
    The DGSE were completely bonkers and off the map over Greenpeace; suffering from internal groupthink they thought it was some sort of CIA/MI5-sponsored black op, with KGB support, to deprive France of the Bomb,

    Like I said -- stopping the tests necessary to proving the code developed to make more tests unnecessary means stripping France of the Bomb, which means destroying France as France. Greenpeace are lucky that they got away with only one death.

    (Hey, nobody ever said these people were good at long term thinking or had a well developed sense of morals).

    253:

    Not the one you were after, which hopefully someone found, but I did find this and had to share it because damn I would have loved to find one of these books back in the day.

    http://www.mappingthenation.com/blog/how-an-artist-reinvented-the-map-in-wwii/

    Richard Edes Harrison

    254:

    Climate change is one that wants looking at really rather closely, because there is more than one thing actually going on. The original narrative, namely carbon dioxide absorbs some thermal photons and then re-emits them, thus having a partial reflection mode, is true but there are other things going on as well.

    The big thing that the previous theory does not consider is the action of water. Water is really very peculiar stuff; densest at 4 degrees Celcius and a potent greenhouse gas its self, in vapour phase. How much water is in the atmosphere matters a very great deal.

    Clouds are another wild-card factor. Clouds do not form spontaneously, but need a seeding mechanism to form (of which there are several at play). One such seeding mechanism is the action of cosmic rays entering the atmosphere; the more cosmic rays you have, the more clouds form and the more incoming solar radiation is reflected back into space. Of course, if you have a warmer planet, then you have more water in vapour phase and thus more potentially able to form clouds, which is another feedback mechanism.

    Cosmic rays are affected by several things; how many are being emitted in the galaxy, how many are getting through the dust in the ecliptic plane, and how many are being stopped by the solar wind. These two papers make interesting reading on this matter:

    Cosmic ray oscillation http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825216301453

    Climate patterns http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2016-38/

    The upshot of this research is that human interference aside, there are several temperature and climatic cycles at play here, ranging from the 11-year Solar Cycle to others with a periodicity of several centuries, which combine to give fairly large inputs into the planetary climate cycle. These need to be accounted for before we start getting into human inputs into the climate of the planet.

    255:

    "What do you call that large federal republic on the North American continent. (No, not Mexico, the other one)?"

    Hmm ... not sure ... Did you mean USA or Canada?

    256:

    He means America (the country). What Trump wants to make great again.

    257:

    Err - Canada is not a "Republic", is it?

    258:

    «forces in the West have been complicit with what the Russians are doing because higher living standards, especially sustainable such, are a threat to them. Comfortable people not living in fear»

    I think that our blogger's notion that it is a long term plan of russian subversion overestimates the russians a lot, at least compared to the Davos/Bilderberg global coordination of elite affairs.

    I am more persuaded by the argument that the end of the cold war and "of history" has meant that the "atlantic" elites have decided they no longer need to buy the good will of the "home front" by tolerating social-democratic policies.

    Those "atlantic" elites seem to have decided as you seem to mean that the servant classes need to be kept constantly afraid of displeasing the master classes, and under constant surveillance.

    Also that since some important political agglomerations show centrifugal tendencies, the pressure of an external threat (Russia and Islam have been used, with China as a distant third) is needed to keep them together.

    259:

    Tell me something, please. Why do people who call themselves Liberal (that word has changed in meaning so much that a new, and longer word, libertarian, has had to be coined to denote what it used to mean) promote and agree with the importing of people into Western Europe, in their tens of thousands, who have attitudes and beliefs that make the most rabid of American paleoconservatives look modern and agnostic?

    I also think that the creeping shutdown of intelligent debate (or any debate at all, for that matter) on just about any issue (gender politics, the politics of sexuality, religion, the left/right divide) is one of the worst things that is happening in the Teens. (Starting in the 90s, perhaps.)

    That's why the pollsters got it so wrong about the US election. People, or at least some of them, were afraid to say what they really thought.

    "Shut up!", he explained. Liberal, my arse.

    260:

    Depends on your definition of "republic" really. If you define it as a state governed by representative institutions under the rule of law then Canada along with the UK, the Scandinavian and Benelux monarchies etc are more "republican" than most countries that have the word in their official title.

    261:

    People are accepting of refugees and immigration because there is no way to halt it that do not involve atrocity. The conditions these people are fleeing are extreme, and there are no humane moves that would actually stop them from running towards places that are not massively fucked up.

    People say "Well, put up camps in the near area.." but refugee camps are hellholes. They're known to be hellholes. Noone with any sense is going to stop there, any more than anyone with an ounce of sanity is going to flee from ISIS into Saudi Arabia.

    Thus, the choices on the table is are a neo-colonial project where we simply take over and put in order any area that becomes a refugee source - an endless parade of High Representatives of X, or we get better at adult education and other measures to integrate people into our society faster.

    Because look at a map. You think Trump's wall is impractical? Europe is one long crinkly coastline bordering seas you can navigate with courage and a dingy.

    I mean sure, in theory, we could set up Free Cities to act as immigration targets. Buy a piece of land off someone on the north african coast, implement a Land Value Tax, dig severs and train a civil service to european standards, and run it to EU regs. That would work until the local powers realized just how catastrophically bad a successful city, using "their" citizens, and their resources makes them look, at which point, we'd have to defend them militarily, and we're back to "Colonialism, 2.0".

    262:

    As evidence accumulates that Trump benefited from a lot of late deciders breaking his way, the case that it was Comey gets stronger 1/

    So it looks more and more as if we had an election swung, in effect, by a faction of our own security sector in alliance with Putin 2/ Paul Krugman, 17th Nov 2016.

    Krugman is 100% top of the pile of hated economists by the 'gold n guns' Libertarian blogosphere (which has been co-opted to various ends). So this is the start of a Line being formed - if Krugman is willing to state this publicly, well.

    ~

    Some of us have been attempting to parse the opposition side and moderate it into acceptable boundaries while respecting their thoughts/feelings on the issues, and had some limited success. The response has been full on Fascism (Bannon is poisonous, you don't get to call for Holy War and be on Jesus' side) & blatant cheating.

    There's probably a lesson there.

    Promoting human dignity based on the recognition that Man is made in the Image and Likeness of G_d

    There a couple ways to parse that statement: one is a shit load of hubris. Might want to check out the next line:

    And God blessed them, and God said unto them, Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it: and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth.

    Not doing so well on that one. I don't think the concept of a second coming is going to go well if the place is trashed.

    Indians, White People and God's Earth YT: Louis CK, comedy, 4:37 (Known also as "What happens if G_D came back).

    263:

    So maybe colonialism is the better option?

    264:

    I know I'm viewing this election in terms of race. If you want me to stop, please let me know.

    http://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/election/article113723174.html

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/20/magazine/donald-trumps-america-florida-latino-vote.html?_r=0

    It seems that support for Clinton among minorities varied by state. A pity, since the electoral college is still in play. I am not doing this for every swing state. If someone else wants to do this research, please let me know.

    265:

    Chris Rock has a routine that goes something like this: "Everyone tells you to be who you are. Are you crazy? So all the maniacs and pedophiles should be who they are." I guess new South Park is about that. People do lots of stuff they are not proud off. Keeping some secrets is better than normalization of criminal behavior. But if president can do it why not everyone. Soon every idiot will have a right to drive on left or right side of the road as s/he pleases. Well, that is his choice and opinion, why not.

    266:

    And for the first part of the question: because building a wall is stupid and won't work. Check Eastern Germany and Russia. The only way is integration and slowly proving that good life exists and they can have it.

    267:

    the importing of people into Western Europe, in their tens of thousands, who have attitudes and beliefs that make the most rabid of American paleoconservatives look modern and agnostic?

    Because that's not actually what's happening, and if you think it is, you're reading the wrong media.

    Firstly, refugees head for the nearest prosperous, stable location (as Thomas Jørgensen noted). They generally retain their background culture for some time -- typically a generation -- so that it takes the first generation born on new soil to grow up with new norms and a new language before they acculturate. The current refugee crisis is too recent for this process.

    Secondly, it helps to have a culture in which assimilation is seen as a priority. The USA had its "melting pot" myth; for the most part, European nations don't -- although some are traditionally better than others; prior to the influx from Algeria at the end of the war, France was very good at imposing a national culture on new immigrants. (The reasons why France tripped over on dark-skinned North Africans are complex but a good chunk of racism is part of the picture.) Germany in contrast imported guest workers from Turkey ... then kept them from applying for citizenship via a piece of constitutional Catch-22 which has only recently been revoked. And so on. Bluntly, racism against people who are visually distinctively different (on the basis of skin color) is a thing.

    Thirdly, a proportion of the discriminated-against immigrant communities responded to their perception of being stomped on -- either by a hostile surrounding population, or by the west in general shitting on their relatives back in the Old Country -- by angrily pushing back. This is normal and natural. What's less normal is that the new media environment gave griefer organizations like Al Qaida and Da'esh opportunities to reach the angry disaffected youth and recruit them. The fact that lots of teen agers are heading to Syria to fight for Islamic State armed with copies of a book titled ISLAM FOR DUMMIES should tell you just how deeply this violent impulse is rooted in their traditional culture. (Snort.)

    As for your "shutdown of debate" on issues like sexuality in the 90s, tell that to anyone who's LGBT and who remembers what it was like in the 70s or 80s. Here's a clue: what we've seen has been a sudden increase in debate, as we've been able to come out in public without fear of being arrested or persecuted. What you take to be a shutdown of debate is actually a symptom of the loss of privileged status for bigoted and hostile views of minorities. Because if you've got a bully pulpit, losing it and being forced to debate on equal terms with everyone else can feel a lot like persecution.

    And as to how I feel about on that latter point? World's smallest violin, motherfuckers.

    268:

    Here's the thing that bugs me about this:

    Communism back in the day was a conspiracy to take over the world. Prior to that, the Russian Empire played the great game primarily to protect itself: The lessons of the Mongol invasions, and the lack of any physical border with the steppe, go deep.

    Looking at the Wikipedia version of Foundations of Geopolitics, it looks like they're playing the Great Game again, and for the same reason: we're threatening their borders.

    I'll come back to this.

    The second player is China: for the last 3500 years or so, there's been a battle over who controls what we call China (if you think of "China" as equivalent to "Europe" rather than as equivalent to "England," it's easier to get your head around). The Han Chinese (who are not a homogeneous group, propaganda notwithstanding) have basically "won" the battle, at the moment, and they've even conquered their long time rivals, the Tibetans and the Mongolians. Beyond that, China never got into the colonial game. Their game was more the Chinatowns of ex-pats all over the world, which is, again, something traders have done since Roman times.

    The key question for China watchers is whether they've changed or not. The signals are mixed: they're planting factories and such all over the world, American-style, but they're not planting colonies. The South China Sea has always been seen as a flashpoint, because so much trade passes through it, but beyond that? Hard to tell. They've got serious problems of their own. It's unclear to me whether they'll try to resolve their problems internally (revolt and reform, their traditional pattern) or imperial expansion (export trouble, import resources, a la Imperial Japan). Both might happen.

    So, looking at Russia and China, do we have a global conspiracy? Hardly. Russia is, quite rightly, afraid that China will take Siberia away from them. If China doesn't get climate change under control, they're going to have to relocate a good chunk of the population of south China elsewhere due to heat, humidity, and rising sea levels. Sending them north into Siberia isn't quite as stupid as it sounds. Russia has owned that area primarily because no one else wanted it, but it could easily become a battleground in the future, because it's a sparsely settled land in a time when we've got a lot of potential colonists. The Himalayas will also likely become a battleground between China and India, here because most of the water for billions of people comes out of that range, and they're a possible spot for resettlement of all the refugees forced out by rising seas.

    Turkey is still caught up in the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire: if you read any history, it often takes centuries for the reverberations of empire to settle down, and it's been less than a century since the Ottoman Empire was forcibly (and stupidly) dismantled by the British Empire. Speaking of which, it's been less than a century since the British Empire started collapsing, and it's still falling apart. But getting back to Turkey, it's hard for me to tell how much of this crap is the old Ottoman Empire echoes, how much of this is climate change, and how much of this is echoes of the Cold War.

    SO what do we have here? --The basic geopolitics that drove the Great Game still in force in Asia. --Climate change is rightly freaking out all the military planners, because hundreds of millions of desperate people on the move is always a huge problem. India's built a fence between it and Bangladesh, Trump's planning a wall, Israel's building walls, and so forth. They work as much to keep populations in as out, but they never work all that well. This is where Trump can royally screw the US, because taking our eye off this ball means we miss something really, really important. --Democracies have been pwned because, well, that playbook goes back to Machiavelli and has been elaborated ever since. Any political system can be pwned, and the advantage to democracy is that no people die during regime change. That we're getting pwned again shouldn't be any surprise: what we're fighting for is peaceful transfer of power, although we think we're fighting for mum, apple pie, and a chance to not care about politics. --Speaking of which, all the stupid espionage/psyops/subversion and destabilization stuff the British, Russians, and others started with the Great Game, which continued into the Cold War, has pretty much entirely hit the streets. Everyone's doing it now, and as always, it doesn't require a conspiracy, any more than hackers conspire on DDOS attacks when the software is freely available.
    --technological destabilization, in that it's cheap and easy to create huge databases and mine them. My guess is that this period is going to be brought down by WW1 (Web War 1), wherein the IoT makes Americans (and possibly others) so vulnerable that we get the equivalent of the Butlerian Jihad, devolving the Web into splinternets, simply because people are scared, and fear is one of the few things that trumps convenience.

    How will it all play out? Probably badly, but in a way that's hard to predict.

    As for what peace-loving people can do, here are a few ideas: --Live partly by Moscow rules. In other words, adopt some of the CIA or other tactics for officers. Make sure some part of your public record is false or misleading, not because you have anything to hide, but as a way to sabotage pattern recognition systems looking at your data. You want the Butlerian Jihad, start by spamming Big Data. --Realize that capitalism got its start with the arms trade, human trafficking, and drugs, and even when these sectors have been outlawed, they've never disappeared. A lot of what we regard as proper capitalism evolved out of these rather repugnant origins, but I don't think you can only have the good parts of capitalism without having the bad ones. If you want to control the problem, you've got to control capitalism, not just try to suppress parts of it. And that's a big, big problem.
    --Another point is that there's a constant dialog between the dark side of capitalism and the dark side of politics. The OSS borrowed many tactics from the Mob, for example, and they're scarcely alone, and AQ and the Zetas got many of their tactics from the CIA. It's always tricky to distinguish copying from conspiracies, but I suspect we've got more of the former than the latter going on at the moment. --Fight locally. Yes, it's a global problem, but you're not a member of the Super race. If the problem could be solved by one person, it wouldn't be a problem. Yes you've got to collaborate with other people, but you're not going to save the world by yourself.
    --Too bad Gene Sharp started selling his books. He used to give them away for free.

    269:

    As a scientist (Nuclear magnetic resonance) I accept understanding is important; but understanding everything is not always necessary to approximate a solution to a problem. Climate change is the most important existential threat we face; saying 'Whoa there! Lets hold on while while we get this cosmic ray problem sorted...' Is not going to be helpful if the dissolved CO2 content of the oceans makes them acidic enough to kill off the plankton; turning them anoxic. Or if major ice sheets collapse. Or if parts of the world get so hot you die without air con, even if you're naked and wet. Parts of the artic are 20C above the average temperature. The threat is immediate; we have run out of time.

    The two most complicated system we've found in the universe have to be the human mind and the climate. If you're not a climatologist; the only rational way to act in the next generations best interests is to listen to them.

    If the situation we somewhat reversed and climatologists could prove glaciers would sweep majestically sweep across the landscape, turning us in to a 'barbarian from the North (tm)'; we might we reasonably decide to pump CO2 into the atmosphere. Low cosmic rays or not.

    Thats why if the two major playbooks in the world at the moment are followed :- The Constitution of Liberty by F. Hayek And Dugins Foundations of Geopolotics We are in for a grim future, because they do not promote any kind of collective action to solve world wide problems; which managing climate change is going to require.

    270:

    Oh, and a couple of other thoughts: --What happens if the western powers stop trying to destabilize Russia? That's the essence of the Great Game: provoking a Russian empire that's justifiably paranoid by trying to mess with it. This isn't peace in our time, because there's nothing I'd like more than to see Putin go down in a decent democratic revolution. That said, why keep prodding them? Why not let them chew on themselves for a change? Or why not let them scrap with China, if you're into bloody minded pragmatism.*

    --Aside from basic humanitarianism and a global-cop peacemaking role, does NATO have a place in keeping India and Pakistan from going into a nuclear war? Or keeping India and China from fighting a water war over the Himalayas? Trump and his supporters would say no. What's the convincing counterargument? I mean this seriously, and not because I have any malice towards any of these countries or their people. The problem is that we need to have really good arguments for keeping the peace. What are those arguments?

    *Personally, my sympathies are with the conscripts and refugees, which is why I favor population control and an end to war. But I lost in this last election.

    271:

    Since we're usually the Cassandra side of the coin, here's an interesting one (via Sky, Murdoch seems to be getting involved... in a pro-EU way?!? Cats & Dogs, living together! Or it could simply be a version of "burn the evidence", a more probable motive: hello Casino rules):

    The leaked audit – obtained by Sky News – focused on money provided to the Alliance for Direct Democracy in Europe, a European political grouping dominated by Ukip...

    However, an EU spokesperson said the “lion's share” was by Ukip, amounting to over €450,000 (£386,961). If the bureau, next Monday, agrees with the conclusion of the external audit, Ukip could be forced to pay back more than €170,000 (£146,185), while not being able to claim hundreds of thousands more...

    Ukip was said to be furious the audit was leaked to a media outlet before it had a chance to see it, suggesting it was leaked by the European Parliament itself.

    Ukip 'misspent almost £400,000 of EU money on Brexit campaign and general election' Independent 17th Nov 2016.

    ~

    272:

    You are still crying wolf.

    273:

    Re: 'Handmaid's Tale'

    Or Heinlein's 'Coventry', Animal Farm, 1984, etc.

    I second an earlier poster's suggestion along the lines of: 'SF/F authors, time to start banging out scenarios for fixing this nightmare.'

    274:

    So, looking at Russia and China, do we have a global conspiracy?

    China is also very leery of Russia, and has been for at least a couple of generations.

    One of my nieces' grandparents were pretty high up in the PLA, and back during the Korean War* they were planning defences against both the USA and the USSR. MacArthur threatening to nuke Manchuria had big effects in China, and they didn't trust Stalin either. Beijing being within easy bomber range of the USSR was also a big worry**.

    So I don't see China and Russia being more than allies-of-convenience. Even when they were both "Communist", they were very different places with different leadership styles and goals.

    *Seen by China (or at least the Chinese military leadership) as a pre-emptive strike against a South Korean that was planning on invading the North.

    **For equivalent effect, imagine the US reaction if the USSR had had somehow been able to site bombers (or missiles) within easy reach of the mainland US.

    275:

    Interesting author: Scott Alexander.

    Let's see if those criticisms are probably just 'crying wolf', open mind and...

    Suppose you’re talking to one of those ancient-Atlantean secrets-of-the-Pyramids people. They give you various pieces of evidence for their latest crazy theory, such as (and all of these are true):...

    She asks you, the reasonable and well-educated supporter of the archaeological consensus, to explain these facts. After looking through the literature, you come up with the following:

    Oh. Good start there.

    Stop centering criticism of Donald Trump around this sort of stuff, and switch to literally anything else. Here is an incompetent thin-skinned ignorant boorish fraudulent omnihypocritical demagogue with no idea how to run a country, whose philosophy of governance basically boils down to “I’m going to win and not lose, details to be filled in later”, and all you can do is repeat, again and again, how he seems popular among weird Internet teenagers who post frog memes. In the middle of an emotionally incontinent reality TV show host getting his hand on the nuclear button, your chief complaint is that in the middle of a few dozen denunciations of the KKK, he once delayed denouncing the KKK for an entire 24 hours before going back to denouncing it again. When a guy who says outright that he won’t respect elections unless he wins them does, somehow, win an election, the headlines are how he once said he didn’t like globalists which means he must be anti-Semitic.

    This is a major case of Dunner-Kruger effect.

    Fact: Bannon is the producer of pro-Palin / Tea-party (Koch Cash) propaganda media that deliberately tapped into the psychological tricks that Nazis used, but more importantly, targeted the same conceptual / mimetic / ideological areas (the latter is the offensive bit).

    Fact: Bannon is executive chairman of Breitbart media.

    Fact: Bannon is on record (see this very thread) as stating his goal is an anti-Islam(ist) crusade to protect "Judaeo-Christian Value Capitalism" (hint: this is not a version of Enlightenment Capitalism by a wide margin, claiming it is a gross distortion of Reality).

    Fact: Bannon is part of the Trump Transition team and is placed to have an important role post-transition (Stephen Bannon: White House role for right-wing media chief BBC 14th Nov 2016.

    ~

    It'd be nice (WOULD YOU KINDLY) if the know-nothing scrapings of the erstwhile popular on HN crowd ('Libertarian / Rational Thinkers') stepped aside and let the adults work.

    276:

    The good news for a US theocracy, and something I don't think many folks who haven't been to church in America is how freaking splintered the Christian movement is and how quickly theocracy/dominionism would turn to vicious infighting.

    High points, the big Christian churches in Western Europe are Catholic, Lutheran, and Reform. CoE is a bit between Catholic and Lutheran, and forms what's known as High Church in the US or mainline protestants (Methodists, Presbyterians, Lutherans and Congregationalists are also considered mainline) . Reform covers the Scottish church as well as Swiss Calvinism, etc, and most of the rests are back imports. Lots of influence by the English Civil War as well, so Quakers, Anabaptist, as well as immigrants like the Mennonites came over due to this.

    Evangelical Protestants in the US are actually incredibly splintered. Despite mega churches galore, their actual identity tends to rapidly splinter. Most since the US was historically the dumping ground for religious refugees. They get to the US and splint and interact and splint. Baptists and Pentecostal are fairly American evangelical churches, along with Adventists and other similar groups. There's actually something like 50 different baptist denominations due to the splintering (and some of it's political/ethnic like Southern v. North due to splits on Slavery, as well as lots of theological differences). Pentecostal churches often act quasi independent from each other, following charismatic leaders more than anything else imho.

    So what this means is while many folks who are nominally Christian may like the idea of a 'Christian' nation, there will rapidly be a falling out as everyone realizes their fellows in arm aren't the 'right type' of christian. Raised catholic myself in town full of various evangelical types trying to poach teens for each other churches. I found out quickly that catholicism was never the 'right type' of Christians for the holy rollers. Additionally their opinions on LDS are pretty bigoted.

    So I don't think they could ever pull off Handmaiden's tale, simply because their united front only goes on a few common issues dealing with gays, women and if the nation is a 'christian nation'. The night of the long knives would quickly start

    277:

    Can we perhaps discuss the neo-technocratic forces undergirding this massive white-nationalist machine?

    278:

    Re: 'The key question for China watchers is whether they've changed or not. The signals are mixed: they're planting factories and such all over the world, American-style, but they're not planting colonies.'

    Financial news articles since about 2010 have regularly commented about the increasing number of moneyed PRC moving out of China. Not the old-school colonization, just using money as their key to enter quite a few different countries. This past year the province of BC (Canada) passed legislation slapping an additional tax on BC real estate purchased by non-residents. Large part of the reason for this was that BC esp. Vancouver real estate prices were increasing many times beyond affordability. Another part of this problem was that the houses were mostly sitting empty (amid a housing shortage) and/or were being flipped thereby driving housing prices even higher. There may be other geographies where real estate markets have been similarly affected by an influx of nouveau riche Chinese.

    http://www.bnn.ca/b-c-introduces-15-real-estate-tax-targeting-foreign-homebuyers-1.532374

    The big difference in this type of immigration is that it's being done on a more widespread rate so it seems a trickle, nothing more. (Probably to avoid the problems Hong Kong emigres faced in the late '90s.) Unfortunately PCR census data sucks and I'm not sure how or if this type of quasi-immigration would be gathered/reported by census departments in other countries.

    279:

    The scary bit is a convention allows lots of Amendments at once. Fortunately you still need 3/4ths of them to come in.

    280:

    Ok, so we kinda know what is happening.

    What is the plan? Obviously solution to new era with pissed off, easily manipulated people and rouge nations is what:

    a) play Machiavelli (hack their emails, make our Leni R.) b) samehow seize back some institutions, work slowly while being cussed by public c) don't bother, entropy is going to work anyway

    281:

    The other lesson is we need to do some reorg and have a constitutional watchdog with teeth against the security agencies. An agency whose sole focus is watching the watchmen. The FBI has meddled several times with the elections. Hoover blackmailed presidents. His would be successor Felt used leaks to unseat a president. Comney meddled at least twice, timing it for max effect.

    We need a Federal Police force, but we don't need it full of would be secret masters. I'm horrified at what the other agencies could be doing we don't know about. The NSA has the abilities to also monitor our highest levels and use this to influence everything.

    282:
    Parts of the ar[c]tic are 20C above the average temperature. The threat is immediate; we have run out of time.

    Which parts? Which average? Relative to last year? Ten years ago? Twenty? Year to year changes can definitely be scary looking, but I'm not sure it's the best approach to use to convince people.

    Like the ~+20.1 C difference between here in 2015 ...and the same spot in 2016?

    If that is bad, there was a ~-21 C difference between this other spot in 2015 and the same spot in 2016 so is that good?

    The temperature at a given spot in the Arctic is not the best canary in this coal mine before you start trying to figure out what an average of temperatures means, or what effect that average would have on things.

    It's obvious enough that burning coal and oil is an unsustainable energy source with awful effects on the environment at this point, isn't it? Pointing to a spike on a graph isn't going to convince people who aren't on board anyways, and from what I've seen just inspires distrust or flat out rejection of data entirely. Even worse when they get shouted down for pointing to a drop, if it's proof when you do it, but cherry-picking denialism when they do it, nobody listens to each other and you wind up with non-intersecting echo chambers where there could be an educational discussion.

    It is maddening though, I understand, but trying to fight belief with facts is one of those things that feels like it should just be a matter of assembling the information properly, but the presentation turns out to be as important or more so than the meat of the argument, as was just illustrated by Trump.

    283:

    Derped, the second link should have been this one but I got caught up playing with the damn thing again and forgot what I was doing before I came back over here.

    284:

    I don't think they will fully win the Supreme Court. Obama may try a hail mary and just appoint Garland, and may make the argument the Senate waived its duty to consent. But even if they get to fill the empty spot, it means only that Scalia gets replaced with a Scalia.

    I'm personally praying for RBG to beat JPS's record on the court. She's 83, and believe she should only step down at death or incapacity. She'd represent a bigger tilt to the court.

    The scary bit isn't actually SCOTUS. It's the lower courts. Basically gridlock that the Democrats have a hand in due to not appointing GWB's judges after the 2006 election meant the republicans have been slow on appointments since 2010. There's 103 federal judge slots vacant. 59 have proposed replacements. The Senate has declined to confirm many of these since the current congressional session started.

    By picking the right lower court judges and declining to appeal rulings against the government that Trump is ok with is one way to get some of their agenda passed.

    Obama could try and do the senate waiver argument on all these vacancies. But it risks setting a precedent.

    285:

    One last Bannon quotation, in a rather post-election drive to underline just how stupid he is being:

    I’m not an expert in this, but it seems that they have had some aspects that may be anti-Semitic or racial. By the way, even in the tea party, we have a broad movement like this, and we’ve been criticized, and they try to make the tea party as being racist, etc., which it’s not. But there’s always elements who turn up at these things, whether it’s militia guys or whatever. Some that are fringe organizations. My point is that over time it all gets kind of washed out, right? People understand what pulls them together, and the people on the margins I think get marginalized more and more...

    I think when you look at any kind of revolution — and this is a revolution — you always have some groups that are disparate. I think that will all burn away over time and you’ll see more of a mainstream center-right populist movement.

    This is a man who is presenting as opposing the worst Islamist movements with apparently no conceptual understanding that 'burn out over time' usually means (from Robespierre onwards) 'literally burnt out in a massive blood-bath' or that he's using exactly the same methodology as them.

    Oh, and if you want to really wake up - Bannon ran Biosphere 2 for a couple of years and is very well aware of Climate Change, despite the Breitbart editorial stance against it (Trump’s Campaign CEO Ran a Secretive Sci-Fi Project in the Arizona Desert Motherjones Aug 2016). He's also ex-GS.

    Which means he analyzed the same data and came to the same conclusions, but opted for the "triage mostly brown people" option.

    And no, I'm not even joking - the probability on that is extremely high.

    286:

    Yikes .. forgot that televangelists (Christian) often get involved in US elections despite ballyhooed separation of church and state. And, yes - the most right wing preachers got very, very involved.

    See photo of TD holding hands with/receiving blessing from some televangelists ...

    http://www.lgbtqnation.com/2016/11/televangelists-say-theyll-activate-100000-prayer-warriors-help-trump-win/

    287:

    Some fictional futures we need to avoid in the 21st Century:

    Hot Earth Dreams Lucifer's Hammer Blood Music (or facsimile thereof with dry nano) 1984 (or, possibly worse, Brave New World) "If This Goes On" (or variants with other religions) On The Beach Neuromancer

    Any more? Some of those have technological solutions; in some cases, the particular solution to use is a matter of debate. And it usually isn't simple. To take an example, it's not at all clear that air travel has a positive effect on global temperature, even if human-achievable levels of greenhouse gases have such an effect. Why? Because air travel increases global albedo. IIRC, levels of cirrus cloud over the North Atlantic have increased by around 30% since the introduction of jet airliners.

    And I have seen why. It doesn't always happen, by any means, but a couple of weeks ago I happened to look up; and half the sky was covered in clouds that were obviously jet contrails which had spread out. And, as it happens, I have seen a serious suggestion that increasing Earth's albedo could be achieved by doping jet fuel with sulfur.

    All the possible futures I have just mentioned are about as ghastly as each other. 1984 and Brave New World are, at the moment, rather more likely than the fundamentalist hellhole described by Heinlein, at least in the UK. (IMHO, natch.)

    We need to avoid all of them, and it won't be done by shutting people up. No matter how unpleasant they are, as long as there aren't any actual threats of violence.

    On that note, there have been at least two public threats to assassinate Donald Trump. So much for the peace-loving Left.

    288:

    The good news is they tend to get really into doctrinal disputes, so I don't think they could pull off a theocracy.

    Unfortunately, they could agree enough to make America suck again for LGBTQ folks and women. Not to mention most of them have latched on to prohibitions on lending in the bible and believe credit is evil. (but Tithing is good!).

    289:

    Wow.

    In the time it took to read your response, I found scientific research data showing the opposite to your claims.

    Knock yourself out (note the +12oC range / blanket):

    Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts AER Nov 14th 2016

    And since Russia has seemingly locked down direct access to PDFs on certain sites (403'd - a bad sign), here's a cached version of a 2014 paper highlighting how much faster Siberia is warming than the rest of the globe (remember the word "average"). Oh, and you'll need to be able to read Russian, but hey:

    ТОРОЙ ОЦЕНОЧНЫЙ ДОКЛАД РОСГИДРОМЕТА ОБ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯХ КЛИМАТА И ИХ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯХ НА ТЕРРИТОРИИ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ

    Of course, if you wanted to start to understand just how badly you're being lied to, check this out:

    On October 31, 2016, the Arctic Ocean was as warm as 17°C or 62.7°F (green circle near Svalbard), or 13.9°C or 25°F warmer than 1981-2011. This indicates how much warmer the water is beneath the surface, as it arrives in the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean.

    Less sea ice, warmer Arctic Ocean Artic News, 4th Nov 2016.

    The specific temperature chart you'll want to view is this one.

    You'll note the huge -negative anomaly over Siberia. No, this does not mean the globe is cooling, it's a very very bad sign.

    But what may be the most impressive large-scale climate anomaly this fall so far has been the behavior of the stratospheric PV. Increasing greenhouse gases favor a colder stratosphere and therefore a strengthened polar vortex in the absence of increased poleward heat flux, yet this fall the stratospheric PV emerged this September in a weakened state. And I would argue in large part due to the rapid advance of Siberian snow cover coupled with low Arctic sea ice, the PV has never fully recovered. At the end of October and the beginning of November the PV underwent an unprecedented early split. The PV has since remained relatively weak and the models are predicting further weakening with more aggressive model forecasts predicting a major mid-winter warming before the month of November concludes. I question whether the PV will enter MMW territory before month’s end (the earliest MMW observed is currently November 30th 1958) but regardless further weakening appears likely. Why the PV has been weak all fall despite radiative forcing to the contrary, is an open science question and could be related to a record warm Arctic and/or the record weak PV split last March obfuscating a final warming in the PV last spring.

    ~

    Any questions?

    link text

    290:

    elfey1: agreed, agreed, agreed.

    Any idea how to mitigate judge app?

    291:

    Have you not heard of a concept called the Overton window?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overton_window

    Or the saying that 'the only difference between heresy and orthodoxy is the passage of time'?

    Political ideologies adapt over over time, and libertarianism has NEVER mapped onto any variant of Liberalism.

    Unless Libertarianism has always supported colonialism, denying women the vote, and using taxation to build up an invincible military, which is what Liberalism constituted, in Britain at least, between 1901 and 1922.

    292:

    SFReader @ 273: You are thinking of "If This Goes On-" the Story FC mentions in the post I'm replying to. It is the story of the overthrow of a US theocracy. "Coventry" is a Heinlein story set after the overthrow, dealing with the new society's version of a criminal justice system*.

    Fletcher Christian @287: "If This Goes On" (or variants with other religions) […] 1984 and Brave New World are, at the moment, rather more likely than the fundamentalist hellhole described by Heinlein, at least in the UK.

    In that Heinlein timeline, the UK is actually a worse place to be. A nuclear WWIII destroys Europe and the UK is not much better off. In Methuselah's Children there is a suggestion that the Howard Families take over Great Britain and then expand into Europe as fallout decay permits.

    (What happens to the rest of the world is unclear. I suspect that the then-undeveloped world never developed. But I digress.)

    The timeline without the theocracy was even worse than that, since the US was part of WWIII and all higher life forms died out.

    • The only things that are crimes are things that damage another person against their will**. Crime is a mental illness. If you are likely to reoffend you must either submit to ultra-tech brainwashing or get sent into anarchic internal exile.

    ** Not sure how they handle reckless endangerment that didn't result in harm.

    293:

    Another part of this problem was that the houses were mostly sitting empty (amid a housing shortage) and/or were being flipped thereby driving housing prices even higher.

    Same thing happens in China. When I was there (last decade) you could look up at buildings and see dark apartments, which had been purchased by doting grandparents so their baby grandson had a house (essential for getting a bride). And property speculation was seen as safer than the stock market, because you owned something real rather than just paper.

    294:

    There's also issues with having the government using state investment companies to encourage building, and stocks having controls on them making them out of reach for the rising classes.

    Some of those buildings and new cities are starting to be inhabited. Some of them will never be, but they did their job of diverting income from state coal mines to the party officials buddies. (Which to be fair is also how it works in the west with infrastructure projects).

    295:

    Oh, and you'll need to be able to read Russian, but hey:

    Not a problem.

    [В]ТОРОЙ ОЦЕНОЧНЫЙ ДОКЛАД РОСГИДРОМЕТА ОБ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯХ КЛИМАТА И ИХ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯХ НА ТЕРРИТОРИИ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ

    Well, the foreword to that does look somewhat scary. Over 2.5 times the global average rate of warming in Russia, 0.43 C per decade since 1975-ish:

    Начиная с середины 1970-х годов средняя температура приземного воздуха на территории Российской Федерации повышается со средней скоростью 0.43°С за десятилетие, что более чем в два с половиной раза превышает скорость глобального потепления. Особенно значительные изменения климата наблюдаются в Арктике и субарктической зоне многолетней мерзлоты.

    Melting permafrost (многолетная мерзлота) might have methanic consequences.

    IIRC, a disproportionate warming effect of increasing CO2 in the Arctic was predicted back in the 1970s, the reason being that greenhouse gasses are not only CO2, but also H20. In the cold arctic the absolute humidity is lower, so CO2 plays a proportionately greater role.

    Происходящие изменения климата не могут не вызывать серьезной озабоченности, поскольку их влияние на природные и хозяйственные системы, на население становится все более заметным.

    Well, yeah, that's what people outside the denialism bubble are worried about.

    296:

    That 2.5x figure is valid 1981-2011.

    The last five years? Not so much.

    And PV (Polar Vortex) is bad news. It's basically one of those Big Ones[tm] signalling that "Shits broken, yo!" (or, bardák! if you'd prefer).

    ~

    If you wanted a serious thought on Host's opine - basically you're looking at multi-polar (pun intended) solutions because the localized disasters are going to be... well. Local.

    Disaster relief / mitigation requires strong localized power-bases once a certain frequency occurs.

    297:
    Some fictional futures we need to avoid in the 21st Century: Hot Earth Dreams
    Probably too late to avoid that.
    Lucifer's Hammer
    If we avoid that, it'll be by blind luck.
    Blood Music (or facsimile thereof with dry nano)
    That's looking practically upbeat and positive, as far as possible futures go. Fun times! By the way, did you know that there's now a human trial using CRISPR/Cas9? http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-to-pioneer-first-human-crispr-trial-1.20302
    1984 (or, possibly worse, Brave New World)

    I'd like to think that 1984 isn't really much of an option, because continuous war for the sake of continuous war sounds like the sort of thing that a sensible modern oligarch wouldn't be at all interested in. I'll freely admit that underestimating the stupidity of people is generally a bad idea, tough. Anyway, they'd all get cooked/drowned by global warming in short order.

    "If This Goes On" (or variants with other religions)

    Hey look, happy ending!

    On The Beach

    I think this one really required mass use of salted bombs, and who the hell can be bothered with those, these days? I suspect the aftermath of any nuclear war will be much less bad than portrayed here. If you're really lucky, it'll stop global warming turning into a complete catastrophe.

    Neuromancer

    Again, looking back... doesn't seem nearly so bad. Is there a handy word, like Zeerust that describes a fictional dystopia that's actually ends up being merely run-of-the-mill, or insufficiently pessimistic?

    298:

    Apropos of nothing in particular, just a possibility of irony. Every time I see Mike Pence, I'm reminded of an Evil Twin version of a "Jonny Quest" character. I couldn't remember the character's name, so looked it up. Turns out to be 'Race' Bannon, wikipedia also adds that the name Bannon is from the Irish for white, and that the character was modeled after a Jewish actor. So childhood memories only partially ruined.

    299:
    So much for the peace-loving Left.

    Don't be an arse. No-one ever pretended that the world was split into two homogenous and stereotyped groups.

    It shouldn't really be necessary to point out that the US has a decades long history of self-destructive paranoia precisely because there was such a thing as a non-peace-loving left.

    300:

    What on earth are you blithering on about? Climate scientists are well aware of the complexities, and how it isn't just CO2, but methane, fluorine compounds, etc. And that water vapour is a feedback.
    Here's an ancient blog post discussing it: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/04/water-vapour-feedback-or-forcing/

    Then there's clouds. You are aware that the strong cloud- cosmic ray hypothesis has no evidence for it? No? At most there is a weak effect on cloud formation, e.g.: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/11/simple-physics-and-climate/

    I note that your source is one paper by an independent researcher positing long term lag responses. Can you explain what the paper is about?

    The "fairly large" inputs that you claim are being ignored, have been known about for years and decades and indeed centuries. You need to read up some modern science, Real climate is a good place to start.

    301:

    There is a post going round on twitter just now pointing out how under fascism your economic success depends on how friendly you are with the rulers. People are slow to realise that is basically what the UK is rapidly heading towards. Or to elaborate, an unholy mixture of rent seeking parasites taking taxpayer money from their pals in government, and transnational corporations bribing or cajoling said governments into doing things which benefit them. NEt result is loss of middle classes and other stabilising factors, markets become even less free than they were before, and less like markets (although as usual the market worshippers don't want to know) and it becomes harder to be anything like free in the country.

    Sure, in the past politicians mates often did get contracts for stuff on the nod. But the difference now is partly in scale, so that in the old days money tended to be moved about within a region, and it was possible to give better feedback more rapidly (mobs with burning torches), but nowadays the people responsible have control of entire counties, and you can't actually find who to blame, and the money gets siphoned offshore to avoid tax. And also about power, it used to be possible for a higher up the tree person to come from central government and help deal with the local corruption, which would win them votes at least. Now when the central government is corruption, there is nobody to appeal to. Except perhaps the EU, but guess what is happening there?

    302:

    Actually, many of us are more worried about what will be given to him to sign, and the agendas of the people he is surrounding himself with. And if Trump should happen to be assassinated, the VP is a gay hating abortion hating right winger.

    303:

    Yeah, ex-pats have been messing with the California housing market too. While we generally blame the "Chinese," apparently Russian oligarchs have been a real problem too. As have others.

    The current real estate contracts in California run to dozens of pages across many documents, in part because of games played by international investors trying to pull a fast one when either buying or selling a residence here. A lot of these documents are mutual disclosure stuff, along the lines of "buyer demonstrates that they have the money and the willingness to pay taxes that they are supposed to," and "seller demonstrates that the property they are selling is in fact what they represent it to be," and "real estate agents on both sides aren't playing some sort of complicated game to defraud one or both parties," and "everyone needs to know that the following (XXX) items need to be investigated before the purchase closes, if they want to sue over those things afterwards." Fun stuff indeed.

    304:

    And that water vapour is a feedback. Tx for this. I didn't have the will today to launch into a rant about forcing and feedback. Another classic at www.realclimate.org is Learning from a simple model. Any climate change denier I meet gets the napkin treatment of this. It sometimes helps to be able to draw an optical depth graph from memory e.g. figure 4 from here http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2016-555/acp-2016-555.pdf

    305:

    As a german I don't believe that the AfD will be a serious problem in this decade (and probably not in the next): The german political system is very resilient against new parties (see e.g. the Pirates) and right-wing parties usually disintegrate once they get into parliaments. The AfD is actually forcing the left-wing parties to forge a coalition in Berlin now.

    For the current situation in the USA, I think recent posts by Forsetti and Chomsky are required reading.

    Btw, I would love to read your thoughts on HyperNormalisation by Adam Curtis (since you are still a citizen of the UK and can legally see it :).

    306:

    Fahrenheit 451.

    Except we're already there. Oops.

    307:

    But now the Hound will fly!

    And it won't be books they are after, so much as offline data encrypted without NSA back doors.

    308:

    That Chomsky piece is a decent rant, if a bit wordy. Favorite sentence: It is hard to find words to capture the fact that humans are facing the most important question in their history -- whether organized human life will survive in anything like the form we know -- and are answering it by accelerating the race to disaster.

    Personally getting rather frothed up [1] about climate change mitigation vs a D. Trump administration, and the sentiment seems to be broadly common. [1] swore off that for a while; reasons.

    309:

    Like many people, I have been trying to figure out what happened this election. Why did America elect someone like Trump as president? I've gone through all of the explanations from economic insecurity of the white working class to racism and misogyny. Then I came across this:

    https://www.inverse.com/article/23750-cliodynamics-america-cycle-of-violence-donald-trump

    Turns out that there is a very simple explanation: America goes insane every 50 years or so. From the article:

    "The country experienced a wave of racial and political tensions in the wake of the American Civil War, and Turchin says everything peaked in 1870. In 1920, 50 years later, things got dicey again as anti-Communist fears, race riots, and workers strikes plagued the States. The most recent “cycle of violence,” as he calls them, was in 1970 during the civil rights movement, though this period wasn’t as extreme as its predecessors, according to Turchin’s data. Turchin predicts that the next peak will come in 2020. As a reminder, Donald Trump won the presidency while losing the popular vote last week, so things in America are already pretty tense here in 2016."

    Each 50 year cycle culminates in a wave of insanity that includes several patterns that repeat themselves over and over again with progress followed by backlash:

    • Economically - Rural vs. Urban in a fight over economic growth and opportunity. • Demographically - Natives vs. Immigrants, with a backlash against intrusive foreigners.
    • Culturally - Traditionalists v. Progressives, with expanded rights pitted against eroded privileges.
    • Politically - Liberals v. Conservatives, with a liberal president followed by a reactionary or corrupt president.

    Examining every 50 year cycle we see the following:

    2010s and 20s - Our recent election. Collapse of economic growth in rural heartland Red America compared to booming economies in urban bicoastal Blue America triggering a backlash against globalism. Hispanic and Asian immigrants triggering a nativist response from rural Whites over jobs and cultural identity. Marriage rights for Gays triggering a response form the Religious Right starting with Nan Davis in Kentucky 2 years ago. Liberal Obama followed by racist/corrupt Trump.

    1960s and 70s - The Groovy Sixties. Cities from Watts to Detroit to Newark burning. Black "immigrants" moving into cities followed by White flight to the suburbs. Sex, drugs and rock and roll (along with Civil Rights, Women's Lib, etc.) v. traditional family values. Liberal Kennedy/Johnson followed by corrupt Nixon.

    1910s to 20s - The Roaring Twenties. Rural America faces economic hard time, effectively experiencing the depression a decade before the rest of the country. Massive influx of Catholic and Jewish immigrants from southern and eastern Europe, and Black migration to northern cities triggers a rebirth of the KKK (which had all but disappeared in the late 19th century). Flappers, jazz and bathtub gin v. prohibitionists. Progressive Teddy Roosevelt followed by racist Woodrow Wilson and corrupt Warren Harding.

    1860s to 70s - Civil War and Reconstruction. Agrarian rural South fighting industrialized urban North. Influx of Irish Catholics and emancipation leads to birth of KKK. Reconstruction v. traditional Southern society. Lincoln followed by corrupt Grant administration.

    1820s to 30s - Young America. Birth of industrialism begins to erode the dominance of slave/rural Sothern states. Know Nothings oppose immigration especially Catholics. Abolitionists v slave owners and Jacksonian populism v. aristocratic government. The intellectual John Quincy Adams followed by Andrew Jackson (the Trump of early America).

    In every case, economic, demographic, cultural, and political progress/change of the previous decades is partial undone by a backlash. It's a two steps forward and one step back rhythm, but with the net movement being forward. Judging from history Trump and delay or partially reverse social change.

    But he can't stop it.

    310:

    Your's is a typical non-Amercian view. An American view would put Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand first. You can not understand the current Republicans without Any Rand.

    311:

    Re: 'You are thinking of "If This Goes On-"'

    You're right - thanks - haven't read Heinlein in over 10 years and not sure I want to re-read him yet.

    .....

    Hey - SF authors!

    I could really use a warm & fuzzy set-in-the-future book just now!

    312:

    Especially Paul Ryan who tries to square the circle and combine Atlas Shrugged with the new testament of the bible. Al Franken calls it Supply Side Jesus. These two books interacting and people trying to rationalize it is why the prosperity gospel is attractive.

    313:

    And there's still a housing market in California with all that legalese, not to mention drought, raging fires, etc? I do not understand this mentality at all.

    314:

    Sigh, bugger. Forgot the Cliff notes for Greg / the oldies.

    "WOULD YOU KINDLY" is the catch-phrase from the computer game Bioshock YT: Spoilers : "A man chooses, a slave obeys". 5:47.

    In the terms of the story, it's a psychological control device (a la MK-ULTRA) that gets layered in via voice logs / communications and you (the protagonist) never spot it until the big reveal.

    It's a critique of a Randian utopia, which descends into insanity and barbarism, and the underlying group-think / authoritarian structures hidden within the "Objectivist Individualism".

    ~

    Oh - Forsetti - ZZZ, nothing insightful there. Chomsky - as usual, nothing new.

    But we're on best behavior: Host has signified we're not allowed to free-base the worst of your Minds

    Aside ~

    To put it another way: Clinton could have doubled the 517,000 votes she got in Wayne County (Detroit) and still not matched Obama's 2008 vote count.

    I don't know what the hell happened there and I'm sure white supremacy is a huge part of the story, but... I just don't know. I can't put those numbers into any coherent narrative.

    Watches MF not get the Michigan voting numbers, even after Flint / Lead. You fuckers are DUMB

    No, you fucking muppets: they know R fucks them, the corrupt D fucked them as well.

    YOU POISONED THEIR CHILDREN AND THEY'RE STILL BEING POISONED AND YOU'RE SO FUCKING CLUELESS YOU THINK IT'S MAGICAL PIXIE RACIST UNICORNS.

    Oh, and pro-tip: Predators spot that kind of thing a mile away. You were warned. It cost you nothing. You learnt nothing. shrug

    That's a classic error in dealing with Orcas.

    315:

    People still want to live there. And the legalize isn't that bad. It's just mortgages and houses tend to be the biggest expense in most peoples lives, so folks are willing to sue. And with lawsuits come laws and contracts.

    And plenty of that legalize has roots in good old American wrong doing to other Americans. And not all of it's wrong doing either, lots of it is simply disagreement, or failure to deal with a situation no one thought of. (Not to mention changing times like Asbestos and Termite inspections).

    You could argue buyer beware, but that legalize is to lance the boil of further lawsuits caused by that attitude.

    316:

    Of course, it also shows that mere paperwork is no barrier to having a functioning market. And in many cases is a benefit to all concerned.

    317:

    Oh, and if you want funny:

    “Let us not fear what we know to be true. Let us accept what we were founded upon. Our Judeo-Christian ideology built on a moral set of rules and laws. Let’s not fear, but instead fight those who want to impose Sharia law and radical Islamist views.”

    That's Flynn, the General for Trump. Nat Sec. Yadda, yadda, look at that code again. J-C Eschatology.

    ACT! for America San Antonio - Lt. Gen. (Ret) Michael Flynn YT: Aug 15th 2016 1:15 (trust me, it's boring - don't bother watching it).

    The kicker?

    73 views

    Think back to a video I posted that had 1.3+ mil views in a single day (who, hilariously, then got featured on CNN or whatever about the election - good to see you, Media Gallery, thanks for playing! Author was shocked and amused)

    If you seriously think that ACT (ACT For America CAIR, 28th Oct 2016) are a significant force, then I've a Moon to sell you.

    Youtube.

    73 views.

    Next serving National Security...

    You might have spotted something amiss here.

    It's called Reality.

    ~

    This is literally the year of the PSYOP Presidency.

    318:

    Well...

    I have the very beginning of a book in progress, in which a) various sorts of parasite on the body politic (HFT traders, tax lawyers, hedge fund execs, investment bankers, megacorp board members...) are well on the way to being extinct after quite a few of them become rather unpleasant street decorations and b) the protagonists have a front-row seat in the (completely justified, in the story) AI robot rebellion. Does that sort of qualify?

    I think R Daneel would do a much better job than any politician we have. What do you think?

    319:

    The recent US election was a seminar in how strong and pervasive confirmation bias, bubblethink, motivated reasoning and identity-protective cognition are.

    The polls weren't actually all that off -- substantially so in the Midwest, less so nationally.

    But the groupthink among the pundit class screwed up -interpretation-. Some of the wiser pundits have confessed that they suspected what was happening, but just couldn't bring themselves to say it.

    It was a 'haut' version of the classic remark attributed to Pauline Kael, that she couldn't believe Nixon had been elected because nobody she knew had voted for him. Nobody in the West Village or the Upper West Side, that is, or even in the rural wilds of Westchester County.

    The same thing is happening all over -- the unthinkable can't happen, isn't happening, won't happen... until it does.

    Meanwhile, the FN in France had a remark about Trump's election: "The world has not come to an end. Only -A- world is ending. Their world is crumbling. Ours is being built."

    But hey, it's unthinkable, right?

    320:

    Oh, and HN / Tech bros are covering the bases well:

    The Intercept has documented how Wright, as a law professor at George Mason University, received Google funding for at least four academic papers, all of which supported Google’s position that it did not violate antitrust laws when it favored its own sites in search engine requests and restricted advertisers from running ads on competitors. George Mason received $762,000 in funding from Google from 2011 to 2013.

    Wright then became an FTC commissioner in January 2013, agreeing to recuse himself from Google cases for two years, because of his Google-funded research. He lasted at the FTC until August 2015, returning to George Mason’s law school (now named after Antonin Scalia). But Wright also became an “of counsel” at Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, Google’s main outside law firm. Wilson Sonsini has represented Google before the FTC.

    Wright’s leadership position in the Trump FTC transition flips him back into government work.

    Google Gets a Seat on the Trump Transition Team The Intercept, 15th Nov 2016.

    ahem

    New Google Parent Company Drops ‘Don’t Be Evil’ Motto TIME, Oct 2015

    ~

    Sooooo bored of it.

    We will fight for Enlightenment and stuff, but you're really not helping things.

    321:

    It's actually quite simple: each of these documents encapsulates a bunch of legal action. If you want to fly without such things, that's fine, but there's an increased risk that you'll get ripped off, and then you'll get stuck in court for years behind a backlog of dozens, if not hundreds, of identical lawsuits. And my wife spent a month on the jury trial of a Californian doing real estate investment fraud with properties in Arkansas. You like month-long trials?

    Or you can spend a couple of hours reading through legalese and signing it.

    You may not like the legalese, but when homes are in the many hundreds of thousands of dollars, it is cheaper to deal with it than to hope that everything will turn out okay.

    322:

    And on the Midwest: live by identity politics, die by them. White voters in the Midwest have traditionally not voted as white people, because they didn't think of themselves in those terms -- they just thought of themselves as "people", the default state. So they divided their votes on things like class, foreign policy, etc.

    The Left has been pushing a theory that white people should become more racially conscious -- apparently thinking that this will lead to mass adoption of their narrative, repentance, reparations and statues of Ta-Nehisi Coates.

    The problem is that there's already a part of the US where white people are strongly conscious of themselves as an ethnic group, and it's called "the South". Where up to 90% of whites vote for the White People's Party, whatever it happens to be, and have since the Civil War. (Slightly disguised recently because the WPP was shifting names.)

    Ethnic groups in politics vote to favor themselves and put the boot into their perceived rivals. No exceptions to be expected; if you do expect that, what planet do you come from, and how many moons does it have?

    If the voting patterns of Alabama spread to the Midwest, the result will be the same. And just as the South did before the North forced it to stop, the forces swept into power by this phenomenon will then jigger the system so nobody else's votes count... only this time there will be no North.

    323:

    Taking any proper class in law will quickly show you the weirdest crap happens, some people are jerks, and usually there's a good reason for a strange sounding law. In the parlance of TV Tropes, it's an obvious rule patch.

    324:

    Re Michael Flynn, had this link stashed, also long - Mehdi Hasan goes Head to Head with Michael T. Flynn, former head of the US Defense Intelligence Agency (Al Jazeera English, Aug 2015) Note his unwillingness to admit error, often a bad sign.

    325:

    You should probably ask Host about the things he has to shield you from.

    We're not really nice fluffy kittens, or Hedgehogs in dinosaur headdresses.

    Well, in one reality we are.

    In another we're something else.

    In another we're quite the opposite.

    We're still deciding.

    Ethnic groups in politics vote to favor themselves and put the boot into their perceived rivals. No exceptions to be expected; if you do expect that, what planet do you come from, and how many moons does it have?

    You're living in a Dream-world, Neo.

    What you think Ethnic groups are, are not.

    It's fucking hilarious.

    You don't even know / see / smell that most female H.S.S. are stripey like tigers and have patterns all over their skins... do you?

    You can't even smell the difference in H.S.S when you're ill, have cancer etc? [ok, ok - we'll play nice tonight, no Mind-Fucks-but-true].

    Oh, and Kirk Douglas was Jewish but no-one knew (!! ALERT !!) but at the same time so clueless about homosexuality he missed the joke about Spartacus! where he was the only one to miss the overtly gay themes (!! ALERT !!).

    Irony. It's multi-layered.

    Pro-tip: Ethnic group doesn't even mean what you think it means. It's all a shell-game.

    327:

    We're fairly convinced by now that this is all a reverse Potemkin village, that will work like the opposite of the DNC / Wikileaks banner and one giant Lightning Rod.

    It's up in the air at the moment, lots of fuzzing, recent Obama / Merkel vid conference was pretty "heart-breaking" if you were ignorant about State Sponsored Media & Bullshit.

    But, given the push/shove, "our way of life is non-negotiable", it'll come down to that most pure of American Beliefs. Violence = Solution. The irony is, of course, that all those shouting "Clinton Murder Conspiracy"... will see it enacted. FULL: President Obama Press Conference w/ Angela Merkel on Donald Trump, TTIP & Russia (11/17/16) YT: Reality: 1:43.

    Pro-tip: Don't run your media as propaganda, shit like this won't happen. Derp.

    And no, it's not Russia or Israel. Totally different Predator set. Old-Skool.

    328:

    Aaaand.

    Since Host asked nicely, and puts up with our psychotic breaks[1] and has a harp (currently perhaps broken and un-weaponized).

    Here's the solution: Ecology.

    Want to know how "Gamergate / KIA etc" got changed[2]? Ecology with a splash of Mutualism / Game Theory 'balanced response'.

    Until you learn to view your society / culture / politics / economies / world as ecologies, you're fucked.

    Predators compete against other Predators (ex-species level, if you're trapped in the Alpha Wolf meme, die already, you're obsolete), you need all the rest and most of all: you need to fucking understand systems and let them breath / exist / flourish. Even if you think you're the top predator (pro-tip: you're not[3]).

    ~

    Race is on.

    First ones to grasp this get the prize.

    The rest die.

    [1] They're required, by Law. Or at least required as a mirror so not to shatter reality any worse than it is already.

    [2] Yes, yes, the old things are still trying to pluck / use it, but it's now changed. Done Deal, no matter what you think you can now stir.

    [3] Dat moment when those who cheated thought that that audit was what was watching. Nope, silly fuckers. You cheated. You've no idea what was actually happening, still don't. shrug

    329:

    But yeah.

    And God created great whales, and every living creature that moveth, which the waters brought forth abundantly, after their kind, and every winged fowl after his kind: and God saw that it was good.

    Let's just say the case: Whales vrs Humanity[1], Higher Court (Michael presiding Judge) isn't going to well for you.

    I mean, it's like: technically you get points for not a total genocide because Capitalism discovered that oil (old dinosaurs, 3+ billion years of biology) was easier to process than Whale Oil (~39 mil years ago) but then you like polluted their ears, trapped them in tiny boxes, forced them to do tricks / hunt mines and devastated their ecosystems.

    I mean, technically you kinda weren't total psychopaths.

    But you really were.

    [1] Adjudicators have allowed all similar species to be Grand-Mothered into this case. Orca / Dolphins etc.

    330:

    The Left is not a monolith, anymore than conservatives are all Klan.

    331:

    I am not an expert on Kirk Douglas, but every time I read an article about Spartacus or Douglas, he speaks about how proud he was to shoot the scene and then to get it restored. Where's your source for him being clueless about it?

    332:

    Looking at a summary of Dugin's "Foundations," it seems that a large part of the goal is to foment chaos and confusion in the US. If I'm reading that right, then I suspect the next event (previous to 20 Jan) may possibly be that massive "irregularities" will be found in the voting machines or their function in at least several states.

    That will throw the whole election result into doubt, and the transition into chaos. A maximum mayhem scenario. Everybody screaming and shaking their fists, the US paralyzed for who knows how long. Exeunt pursued by a bear.

    333:

    Oh come on. Don't overestimate Dugin. The likes of him go for a rouble a dozen in Russia. I for once did believe Putin when he spoke about inability to influence the US elections (the man is not that divorced from the reality... yet?). And judging by the recent string of high-profile arrests our government has more pressing problems. And while the idea that people would actually elect someone who says what they like to hear may seem shocking... well, it's what we have had for the last 26 years. Never needed outside "help" too.

    334:

    Re: Heinlen's "If this goes on", what read like creepy SF in my youth now is starting to look like a legitimate prediction. He's only got the country wrong. Something disturbingly similar is going on in Russia.

    See Exhibit A: Mr. Milonov. Although I would not call St. Petersburg "tolerant", but this article describes the results of his efforts quite nicely. Also, posting photos of him is now a crime:

    See Exhibit B: Mrs. Mizulina. This one is known for her relentless fight with "pedophile lobby" which is apparently controlling the whole world and members of which are identified as "People who disagree with Mrs. Mizulina". Instead of landing her in the madhouse, this "fight" keeps her in parliament.

    Exhibit C: Mrs. Yarovaya. Most famous for her continuation of the war on internet our Exhibit B has started. Also those "anti-terror" laws could be used to enforce religious freedom. Yes, we have Newspeak too.

    Oh, they did not act alone for sure... that's why the previous Duma was called a "mad printer". But they're between the loudest of them and the result of their work was moving toward surveillance society based on perverted version of Christianity and hatred of minorities/foreigners/liberals*... the list goes on. And while most of the people would see them as nutcases, everyone would find something that sounds appealing in the bullshit they throw up. I tend to see some parallels here...

    Oh, and the punchline? All three used to belong to Russia's "liberal"** circles, making them bigots squared. And now you know why I was not surprised when our bigots started cheering the US bigot.

    • Using very loose and questionable definition of "liberal is someone I don't like who I'm afraid to call a homosexual/pedophile".

    ** Here meaning "opportunistic arsehole who'd suck up to whoever gets them cosy placement", the real liberals seem to have been too busy (and stupid) to notice them leeches until it was too late.

    335:

    But he can't stop it. Oh yes "he" can, or rather the christofascists (like Pence) can ... Suspend elections, rig elections, call state of emergency & "suspend" elections. All of which are easily plausible

    336:

    Oh, and the punchline? All three used to belong to Russia's "liberal"** circles, making them bigots squared. And now you know why I was not surprised when our bigots started cheering the US bigot. For "Our" version of that ... I give you:

    Julian Assange

    337:

    It shouldn't really be necessary to point out that the US has a decades long history of self-destructive paranoia precisely because there was such a thing as a non-peace-loving left.

    Actually, it shouldn't be necessary to have to contradict the pernicious propaganda fromthe 19-teens onwards against the left wing in the United States: do I need to give you a run-down of late-19th century anarchist scares, the 1917-19 Red Scare witch hunt, the deportation of Emma Goldman, Sacco and Vanzetti, the IWW, what the Pinkertons were really about, the systematic repression of the trades union movement (which only really survived and prospered in mobbed-up form, unlike elsewhere on the planet where it sprouted moderate-left political parties and ended up in government a few decades later), the imprisonment of Eugene Debs, and so on?

    There was destructive paranoid all right -- on the right, especially in the USA, where the inheritors of the gilded age trusts went all-out to crush organizaed labour as an existential threat and then brainwash successive generations of Turkey-Americans into voting for Thanksgiving out of terror of the alternative.

    338:

    Btw, I would love to read your thoughts on HyperNormalisation by Adam Curtis (since you are still a citizen of the UK and can legally see it :).

    I don't generally watch long-form video -- or short-form, for that matter; if you put youtube links here, I ignore them unless you explain what they are and why they're relevant in words of one syllable -- but I downloaded it, and it's mouldering in my to-watch queue. (Note that there are movies and documentaries that have been mouldering in that queue for nearly a decade already, like the last-but-one season of Doctor Who and everything in Orphan Black after a quarter of the way through the second episode of season one, even though I want to watch them, some time, in theory.)

    339:

    I'd like to call this out as a contender for the "excessively vague but superficially plausible curve-fitting exercise" of the year prize.

    My problem with it isn't that it's not a valid observation, or that it doesn't fit the facts: it's that it has little or no explanatory power -- it doesn't give us a why for the what. A fifty year cycle, persisting across centuries and demographic transition breakpoints and industrial revolutions seems suspicious, because it's not obviously generational and there's no postulated bi-generational mechanism, unless we think in terms of collective memory, the death of the elderly, and write off the under-20s as non-active (which in turn would tend to go against the curve-fitting exercise applying to the 1960s/70s).

    340:

    Hey - SF authors! I could really use a warm & fuzzy set-in-the-future book just now!

    Urban Fantasy is second door down the hall on the left. (Don't go too far and take the third door, that's New Lovecraftian -- looks similar at first but the boy very emphatically does not get the girl, unless tentacles are involved in their mating rituals.)

    341:

    ** Here meaning "opportunistic arsehole who'd suck up to whoever gets them cosy placement", the real liberals seem to have been too busy (and stupid) to notice them leeches until it was too late.

    Such people are everywhere.

    (I don't have time to get into it right now -- a fast-turnaround book edit job just fell on me -- but I will note the entryism and use of Liberty, aka the National Council for Civil Liberties, the UK's equivalent of the ACLU, as a career ladder in the 1970s/1980s for energetic young leftists who ended up running the Home Office (interior/police/prisons ministry) in the 1990s/2000s under Tony Blair, and on the way up fucked the organization's ability to perform its function for a generation. (Jack Straw, Patricia Hewitt, Harriet Harman, I'm looking at you.) Mostly restored to fit-for-purpose under Shami Chakrabarti, but she's burned out and moved on now ...)

    342:

    See Exhibit B: Mrs. Mizulina. This one is known for her relentless fight with "pedophile lobby" which is apparently controlling the whole world

    I mean, how sure are you she's wrong? Given the investigations into the HoL, several police forces, Hollywood, and the President-Elect...

    343:

    So what do we do now? How do we head off the coming authoritarian dark age?

    I have been wondering: are there historical examples of societies that were heading towards fascism, but managed to veer away? The trouble is, how would one know? How would one know that fascism was an averted outcome? It's like fitting security doors - just because you haven't observed a break-in, that doesn't mean that the door prevented it. You can be sure if the door failed, but not if it worked.

    I have been wondering: how should activists proceed to prevent a fascist take-over, but I worry that we will head down the same paths as before. In 1930s Germany the Nazis were opposed, but they defeated their opponents, at least until the rest of the world had had enough. Does that mean that the methods of the German anti-fascists were flawed, or was it a question of chance?

    I want to oppose the rise of fascism, but I don't want to fall into the ruts that lead to failure. What does history tell us? Are there societies that we can say were at risk of falling to fascism, but pulled back - demonstrably - at the brink?

    Anyone?

    344:

    ** Here meaning "opportunistic arsehole who'd suck up to whoever gets them cosy placement", the real liberals seem to have been too busy (and stupid) to notice them leeches until it was too late.

    Such people are everywhere.

    There's a term for such people in our political Newspeak: they're called "effective managers". The people who jump up the ladder while being not competent to manage a barrel of manure. The results are... not pretty.

    345:

    In 1930s Germany the Nazis were opposed, but they defeated their opponents, at least until the rest of the world had had enough.

    For some reason that makes me think of The Unteleported Man. Not entirely apropos but still a thought on a tangent (and I never read Lies Inc.).

    346:

    See Exhibit B: Mrs. Mizulina. This one is known for her relentless fight with >>"pedophile lobby" which is apparently controlling the whole world

    I mean, how sure are you she's wrong? Given the investigations into the HoL, >several police forces, Hollywood, and the President-Elect...

    Oh, but what about Illuminati or that favorite of the most retarded branch of Soviet antisemites, the Judeo-Masons? Surely they won't let that repulsive lobby usurp their throne(s)! And if NAMBLA only knew!..

    347:

    I'd say Heinlein would have been a keen Trump man, had he lived to see this.

    348:

    To be honest, the best way to learn about this is the legal processes involved when someone dies. In my case, this was my father back in January.

    What you see is a steady series of official steps and bits of paper, each of which costs some nominal amount of money, and each of which needs to be checked and signed off by some different office. So, we go from an initial sign-off of death in a hospital, to a death certificate, to obtaining a grant of probate certificate (and several steps in between).

    ALL of these are present because in the past, someone saw a loophole that enabled them to commit fraud of some description and obtain money or advantage in the process. This is the case with most legal things; Common Law has accumulated over centuries as one loophole or fiddle after another has been spotted, abused and plugged.

    349:

    [ DELETED FOR ABUSIVE LANGUAGE -- mod. ]

    350:

    You couldn't get that from context?

    Homo Sapiens Sapiens. Y'know, us - Twice-wise man, etc?

    351:

    "it's that it has little or no explanatory power"

    It's a generational thing with approximately two generations every half century. A liberal/progressive generation rebels against the stifling constraints of their parents' conservative/reactionairy generation. Thn the libs are followed by a conservative/reactionairy generation as a backlash to their liberalism, and so on....

    Swing of the pedulum, action and reaction, yin and yang, back and forth.

    However, the victories of the reactionairy generation are only partial. The cycle is always two steps forward and one step back - with the net progress being forward.

    Emancipation and reconstruction were followed by Jim Crow, which was followed by the civil rights movement which triggered the republican dog whistle reaction which was followed by a black presdient. Definitely net movement forward despite reactionairy steps backward.

    This time around, Gay is the new Black. You want an explanation as to why Red America culturally revolted against liberalism? Then check out Nan Davis of Kentucky.

    352:

    NO Not because of Trumpolini, per se, but because of Pence. Heinlein detested theocracies, deeply.

    353:

    >>>Let's just say the case: Whales vrs Humanity

    354:
    Actually, it shouldn't be necessary to have to contradict the pernicious propaganda fromthe 19-teens onwards against the left wing in the United States
    I was actually thinking of the USSR, which did, after all, have actual agents in the USA, and was not precisely peaceful. Perhaps I should have been clearer. Even now, I've had people bring up the existence of soviet spies in the 60s to justify the ongoing hatred of "socialism", whatever that might mean to them.
    There was destructive paranoid all right -- on the right

    Uh, that was kinda my point. Destructive paranoia, in the USA, especially on the right, because of the fear of reds under the bed.

    355:

    Yep, Heinlein really had no time for theocrats. Was into the free love movement in his youth (in the 1920s); in the late 1940s spent a couple of years moving cross-country in a camper van with Ginny to avoid being identified, arrested, and jailed for adultery -- then a criminal offense in most states, his divorce from wife #2 was not yet final.

    So no, he didn't like theocracies. (And that's before you get into his once-burned-twice-shy relationship with his former lodger, L. Ron Hubbard.)

    356:

    I think our friend from Special Circumstances may be confusing Mr. Douglas with Mr. Charlton Heston.

    357:

    He also had a recurring thing about how the typical people of small town America are wonderful, kind, generous, and friendly. While also being narrow-minded, intolerant, ignorant, bigoted jerks.

    A dichotomy much discussed in the past week.

    358:

    I gotta say, your shtick is really getting old.

    359:

    Exactly. America. That's what people call it. Sometimes some pub bore shows up saying "no, no, you can't call it America, you must call it the United States", then some other know-it-all chimes in saying that the real name of Mexico is also the United States.

    So, yes, the European Union is often called Europe for short. Get over it.

    360:
    Depends on your definition of "republic" really.

    'When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.'

    361:

    I gotta say, your shtick is really getting old.

    It's Charlie's pet lunatic, on his/her fourth nickname already.

    Waves at Catina Diamond

    362:

    Offering a counter-point, I would just like to say (since we are past 300) that Catina: your words are being heard.

    I tried to write a long post on it and what it means to my small intersection of ~weird/wyrd ones~, but I have wasted two days trying to do so unsuccessfully. So instead, simply know you have the thanks of an another group.

    363:

    She (I'm using feminine pronouns because she uses female names) frustrates me because she's clearly very smart and clued in, but also suffering from GD and a generally arsey attitude. More sensical than usual in this topic by and large, but I might just think that because I happen to agree with most of her points (And am bewildered that more people don't see it).

    364:
    then some other know-it-all chimes in saying that the real name of Mexico is also the United States.

    Although Mexico's full name translates to "United Mexican States" not "United States of Mexico".

    365:

    For myself, I do not "see it" because I have long since decided that her posts are so typically one or more of content free, condescending and gratuitously insulting that none of them are actually worth reading.

    366:

    Would that it were otherwise, but being an arsehole doesn't automatically make you wrong!

    367:

    Just about every Western society veered towards fascism in the 1930s and a large number arguably escaped. For instance the KKK spread out of the South and across much of the US, but FDR and the New Deal did just enough to avert complete collapse. You might also note that FDR toyed with a lot of coercive methods to change policy. We were lucky that many people saw the urgent need for change and eventually cooperated in a revolution which was mostly legalistic and mostly bloodless. The alternatives were FDR opts for more authoritarian methods OR backs down and lets the country sicken further. (In which case FDR's successor opts for authoritarian methods to get whatever institutional changes the successor thinks is necessary, and his successor could have been from any one of a number of political flavors.)

    368:

    That would explain some things, but not others. Thanks.

    369:

    You've missed my point; my point was that being an ar$ehole can stop you getting your point across regardless of how sound it is.

    370:

    Facebook was spammed silly with fake news stories concocted by kids in the impoverished Macedonian town of Veles aggressively pushed made-up pro-Trump stories ...

    https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/1120 -> Attachments, "150407 Strategy on GOP"

    "We need to be elevating the Pied Piper candidates so that they are leaders of the pack and tell the press to them seriously."

    Well,

    1) THAT surely worked, eh?

    2) The predictable response will be to double down on Failure and keep the same "brainiacs" running an improved version of the same flim-flam and bull-shit as last time.

    3) The problem with "the left" is that they just can't do one damn thing about anything, there is always something, anything, in the way of "progress". Almost like it's totally deliberate.

    On the subject of BREXIT, my side of the channel always saw the British as Spoilers and Griefers in the EU, America's "gift" to the European unions.

    Due to the ceaseless work of successive British governments, every social dimension there once was has been purged and the EU is now mostly a club for Organised Finance and "serious politicians" of the Social Darwinism kind.

    So, I think that the British government should man up, stand on principles (a.k.a. double down on stupidity) , pull "Article 50" and let the door hit them on the way out too, seeing that they have managed to organise jack shit (and jack left town) so far.

    For the people fighting ... we call it "competing" ... for space in the gig- and zero-hour contracts economy mainly driven by infinite migration and the inclusion of worse and worse EU member states "to keep wages competitive", Of Course they are going to vote Le Pen, AFD, BREXIT - anything that will disrupt the machine that is grinding them into the ground.

    And what do the "the left" do in response?

    They mock, shame, slander and paint every complaint as "feelings", "imagined", "racist", "privileged" - while the statistics clearly say that the wages vs capital ratio of society is now lower than it was in 1920's ... and we know how that went.

    How does "the left" handle defeat?

    The social-media / latte crowds cries and seeks counselling about the fact that some "poor" crooked elitist female not getting "her turn". Didn't anyone in that crowd ever try losing before? Pathetic!

    371:

    If anyone tries to sell you historical theories based on grand cycles or essential national character or over-spanning Civilizations (with a capital "C"), the best thing is to say you already have one and guide them politely out the door.

    There are small cycles: for example, replacing your Prime Minister or President with someone who has a really different public facing persona, or clothing fashions. There are semi-regular cycles based on natural factors: for instance, every urbanized country eventually gets winnowed by plague at intervals.

    The one he presented is actually a fairly poor example of cherry picking. For instance, it says there was unrest in 1920. When in fact there was a lot of domestic upheaval prior to and during WWI, followed by reasonable comfort in the 1920s, followed by deep crisis in the 1930's. The world of the 1940s and 1950s was also not as hunky-dory as people like to remember. So it's not even that seductive a pattern in the first place. Oswald Spengler gives it 1 out 4 High Cultures. Verdict: Declined by the West.

    372:

    For reference, what shtick would you prefer in responses to you? I'll even flutter eyelids at you if you want.

    As a serious question, if I used the word "Bilderberg Group", what would be your general response?

    1 Non-existent paranoid conspiracy theory nonsense? 2 Chatham House Rules meta-meta-think-tank made up of leading industrialists / political / largely Christian ruling Classes in the post war period to shape, rebuild and ultimately ensure Pax America post WWII contra the Союз Советских Социалистических Республик and later the resurgent China? 3 Lizard Central where naked frolicking to the elder Gods goes on in an orgy of sexual violence and humans are eaten? 4 A mixture of #2 and [redacted] 5 Insert your own definition here.

    Your answer will be enlightening. I'll let you guess which one we think it is - and it has demonstrably shaped the world for the last 70 years, which rather gives credence to Grand Game Meta-Narratives.

    But like lesbians, apparently it simply didn't exist for a large period of Time.

    Here's a freebie. Watch out for the EU ambassador. Something fishy fishy stirring in the deeps there. Either replacement or con(per)version, hard to tell.

    p.s.

    Oh and yes: the Kirk Douglas joke is a riff off Mr Heston and his pet chair and the infamously banned scene (“Do you consider the eating of oysters to be moral and the eating of snails to be immoral?” Crassus asks, and then points out that “taste is not the same as appetite, and therefore not a question of morals.” When Antonius replies that such an assertion “could be argued so, master,” Crassus shares what was surely the worst-kept secret of the ancient world: “My taste,” he says, “includes both snails . . . and oysters.”<.em>). Mr Douglas has his own stories ("You are being fucked by a Jew!").

    374:

    And, to throw a real hand-grenade into the works since absolutely no-one has seriously even mentioned it since 9th Nov.

    We'd like to remind you about a little thing called 50 U.S. Code § 1621. Or, the National Emergencies Act. (You can, of course, combine this with elements from the Patriot Act).

    Special report: America's perpetual state of emergency USA Today, Oct 2014.

    Look deep into the Infowars Mirror, a lot of the fear / FUD based around 'camps' and Jade Helm etc revolves around that. The Alt-sphere are very clued into it, and so by extension, we can guess so are Bannon etc.

    ~

    Now, given the current events, isn't anyone making very serious noises about it, but rather pretending it doesn't exist?

    375:

    A lot of people will see this: The North Pole is an insane 36 degrees warmer than normal as winter descends (Washington Post 2016/11/17) It being in a major US newspaper. As said elsewhere, "we've broken the North Pole".

    376:

    Throw in Executive Order -- National Defense Resources Preparedness US Gov, 2012 for good measure.

    ~

    Not sure, but can anyone really see the Trump Triumvirate being allowed to run such things?

    377:

    Re: 'a) various sorts of parasite on the body politic ... are well on the way to being extinct ... become rather unpleasant street decorations and ..'

    Hmmm ... okay we're now in the CRISPR age and mosquitoes are being genetically redesigned to do/not do various things ...so instead of a bloodbath why not change these hyper-competitive groups' target-and-reward system. [My fantasy is a gov't black-ops composed of traders who leverage tax floats to play the markets with the express goal of getting money out of the tax evaders, and putting it where it was supposed to go anyways, i.e., if tax dodgers played fair.]

    'b) the protagonists have a front-row seat in the (completely justified, in the story) AI robot rebellion. Does that sort of qualify?' - Okay, I can see the stock trading algo-AIs possibly going on a rampage ... and a really interesting question/plot point is how these various algos find, meet, decide and then figure out how to cooperate with each other without any humans finding out before it's too late. Also, since AIs probably need some types of systems supports incl. energy, warehousing, distribution, etc., how do they select, interact with/manage their human minions/servants?

    'I think R Daneel would do a much better job than any politician we have. What do you think?' - Basically same answer as I've previously given: without a moral backbone/objective built into and continually maintained and updated, no system whether wetware or software would make a good ruler/overseer of humans, or anything that lives - develops, changes, learns over time and across circumstances. So if you can't put all of your potential environment into a box, the only option IMO is to put the desired outcome in that box. (basically, I'm saying Asimov got this right.) Objectives/outcomes, not just rules because rules are almost entirely the how, and not the what or why. 'Rules' gives you TD legally allowed to avoid taxes for years - and even praised/admired for tax dodging. Ditto - bailed out bankers pocketing billions for themselves and letting their retail customers lose their homes. Self-teaching/pure arms-length observation won't work either ... just consider the horror of that little experiment MSFT ran a few months back -- trolls showed up and very quickly 'brainwashed' that AI chatbot into another troll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/mar/26/microsoft-deeply-sorry-for-offensive-tweets-by-ai-chatbot

    378:

    Last time I visited the urban fantasy section at my local bookstore it was wall to wall adolescent angst. Maybe that's why some of the younger generation isn't voting, their stories don't have many happy endings, do they.

    With Bob's sense of humor and bewilderment, a tentacled love-play scene could be hilarious... ye gods ... the images I'm getting ... put a brown paper wrapper on that book! Now!

    379:

    Weird, when I put "heston chair" into Google, I actually get back Clint Eastwood stories on the first page. Maybe you are an AI after all or at least you mirror the search engines too much.

    [I wanted to confirm there wasn't some famous Chuck story about a chair before I suggested she meant Eastwood.]

    380:

    Yeah - same where I am. Plus over the years each real estate legalese layer has spawned a new insurance policy to cover that layer. It's sold as a 'just in case' (by the real estate lawyer) with anecdota hyping its value in peace of mind. That cost is then wrapped up into the total cost of the property, so increases the total mortgage you have to carry amortized over x years at y percent, etc. My impression is that by buying such insurance coverage, I'm essentially handing my lawyer extra money that he can put into his own reserve in case any of his clients sue him.

    382:

    Depends on the insurance. Title insurance is most useful in states where you use a real estate agent rather than real estate lawyer. It comes down to making sure the surveys are done right, including nonobvious stuff that ends up being super expensive/painful like easements.

    383:

    Re: 'Here's the solution: Ecology.

    Until you learn to view your society / culture / politics / economies / world as ecologies, you're fucked. ... you need all the rest and most of all: you need to fucking understand systems and let them breath / exist / flourish.'

    Okay - agree but not sure how strongly because I do not follow "Gamergate / KIA etc"* therefore am not sure where you're going with this. So, any chance of some suggestions and/or specific examples? (In plain language, please.)

    • There are only so many hours in a day ... family/work/personal priorities, etc.
    384:

    Re: 'super expensive/painful like easements'

    Guess every municipality handles this differently because where I live this is a matter of public record, on file and searchable at the city hall records dept. New easements - one neighbor had this happen - was also very easily handled with a City Clerk and became part of the city-held records attached to that property. Which makes sense considering that the municipality needs good records in order to apportion taxes and services charges.

    385:

    Ugh the LA Times bombing alone probably stopped the socialist party in the US.

    (A botched bombing of the LA Times, which was an anti-union paper in LA which was becoming rapidly the center for US socialism (the mayoral campaign was very close between the socialist candidate and the mayor). The bomb went off several hours later than intended and also happened to cause the gas main to ignite. Instead of a bomb causing mere property damage, 21 people died and more than a hundred more were injured. At least 3 more bombs were planted at the same time and ended up being duds. Union activists the McNamara brothers were blamed.

    It was considered until OJ to be the trial of the century. Clarence Darrow ended up defending the brothers. It was argued the bombs were a false flag, but it seems like the brothers more likely than not did it. Clarence Darrow ended up facing charges of jury tampering for his defense. The media got in a frenzy since a paper was blown up. 55 union members, and the core leadership in LA got arrested for conspiracy. The AFL president did 7 years in prison. The core of the socialist party refused to disavow the bombing by arguing violence was acceptable, and got discredited because of that. The Assassination of President McKinley and the Anarchist bombings of 1919 and 1920, were also associated with the Socialists.)

    386:

    Which works for recorded easements and easements to the municipality. But not all easements are recorded. There are negative easements, such as light, air, water and support easements (depending on jurisdiction). There are non-expressed easements like a prescriptive easement (related to the concept of adverse possession). There's implied easements by necessity or by prior use (for example accessing a drive way on someone else's land to reach a landlocked parcel). There's irrevocable licenses from a previous land (usually something like someone had permission to use the land and spent money on improvements like irrigation or a cabin, or the timber on land has already been sold so the timber owner has the right to access the land).

    And then there's other issues like the survey being off. So possible issues with a prescriptive easement or adverse possession of part of your property because the fence (or even your house) is actually on your neighbors land. Then there's covenants and equitable servitude which a title search ought to show, sometimes exists in previous contracts instead.

    387:

    CALL FOR INFO (Meteorologists/environmental scientists only, please):

    I gather there's supposed to be an El Nina event in progress. Is this the case, and if so, how does it usually affect northern polar temperatures?

    388:

    El Nino or La Nina? Right now it's neutral, according to the Australian Burea of meteorology (who haven't yet been dismantled, but it's only a matter of time) http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

    But the question is how the massive El Nino that was over 2015-2016 affects the NH, but I can't seem to find the useful article I read on the teleconnections that link them, that I read a few years ago.

    389:

    "Usually" is the key.

    Here's the pre-2011 recap in two paragraphs:

    Camp and Tung [2007] (hereinafter referred to as CT07), suggested that there are at least three external perturbations to the polar stratosphere during late winter: easterly QBO, solar max and El Niño. The “least-perturbed state” as they called it, with a cold pole, should occur during years when all three perturbations happen to be in their opposite phases, i.e., westerly QBO, solar min and La Niña. However, to discriminate one state from another would require eight groupings, and they estimated that even their 47 years of data was not long enough to establish a statistical separation...

    [8] In this work, we established that the polar stratosphere in winter is about 4°K warmer in the mean during warm-ENSO years as compared to the cold-ENSO years. We furthermore established for the first time that such a difference is statistically significant at above the 95% confidence level. The different spatial pattern of the ENSO perturbation is used to “filter out” other variability, such as the QBO and the solar cycle, which warm the polar stratosphere by approximately the same magnitude, but the spatial pattern of the warming by the QBO and by the solar cycle is more confined to the polar region.

    Stratospheric polar warming by ENSO in winter: A statistical study Geophysical Research Letters, Feb 2007. Html, very decent over-view of the pre-2011 science.

    So, in 2007 the accepted variance was around 4oC, and was due to a three-way interference.

    Not 20oC.

    How did the polar vortex behave during the big El Niño winter of 2015-2016?

    The average response of the stratospheric polar vortex to past El Niños is weakening of the vortex in late winter and an increased chance of polar vortex breakdowns (i.e., SSWs) (9). This is generally what we saw this past winter, except that during early winter from November to mid-January the vortex was extraordinarily strong (see figure below). The strong vortex may have contributed to the hemispheric-wide warmth we saw in early winter (fewer cold air outbreaks!).

    However, in February, planetary-scale waves propagated upward and began to pummel the vortex, leading to a breakdown of the polar vortex on March 5, 2016. This breakdown of the vortex was so strong that it is the earliest final breakup on record (the vortex will not return until next winter).

    El Niño and the stratospheric polar vortex NOAA, April 2016

    Wind Speed Graph

    390:

    SnU doesn't use the same search engines as we do. She has her own, which works by maintaining a large circular buffer of recent dolphin squawks (recorded and digitised by a global network of hydrophone-carrying Portuguese men-o'war) and repeatedly convolving the contents with random bit strings until valid URLs drop out. It finds all sorts of weird shit that nobody using normal search engines ever gets to see, but on the other hand it doesn't know about Monty Python or Dire Straits. I guess the tradeoff is acceptable for her use case.

    391:

    Er, K, not C there. Derp.

    392:

    Wow, this would normally TOTALLY be my baliwick because I actually have a Meteorology & Oceanography degree, with a study area concentration on environmental science! In practice all I used for it was synoptic weather observations and two months as 'Cadet Science Officer.' I'm a bit out of practice, but let me try....

    La Nina is a relatively recent coinage of term. Technically, it is what comes after El Nino, and the two are grouped into what is caled the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO.) This is where temperatures go up above average in the Eastern Pacific (the El Nino phase) and then drop to below average as the region's climate returns to equilibrium (the La Nina phase.)

    In general, La Nina brings conditions that are the opposite of El Nino. Which is to say, the southeast and southwest of the US become drier, and more northerly areas get heavier snow and winter precipitation -- Canada gets much more snow, and Northern California breathes a sigh of relief as rain comes to the parched state. Seattle shrugs and asks what all the fuss is about. =) In general, the interaction between the jet streams brings moist air from the tropics into the colder air of the La Nina event, which is brought further north to the polar jet stream. This travels roughly west-to-east, which is what brings the cold, wet air to the Midwest and makes for stormier winters.

    So, in short, I would expect La Nina to make polar temperatures generally drop, though because of the polar jet stream, perhaps not majorly. Though the Arctic has its own oscillation patterns that I don't recall very well and shouldn't speculate on.

    393:

    Aaaaand that'll learn me to try to rely on twenty-year-old college courses. ^_^ In my defense, the oscillations are apparently getting... anomalous... across the board. This is my shocked face, really.

    394:

    Someone on another site today posted a link to a thread in this forum: http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/forum.asp?h=0&f=205 (warning: ensure adequate supplies of brain bleach before reading) with the comment "How can intelligent people be so fucking thick?"

    He, I, and it seems millions of other people, all seem to have been thinking the same thing: to be sure such people exist, but there aren't really very many of them, it's just that now we have the internet they can all congregate in one corner of it and we only notice them because of the concentration.

    Discovering that they are in fact a functional majority seems to be the very epitome of cognitive dissonance.

    395:

    Well, it's 2016.

    Stating the words: the vortex will not return until next winter is basically a declaration on the scale of "Ha! The Cubs will never win the world series!".

    But yes: it's not great news.

    396:

    I "How can intelligent people be so fucking thick?" the title of a thread? Because I can't find it.

    397:

    I see why you might be reminded - I'm asking how do we know how counterfactuals might turn out, and that sounds like the "paraworlds" in Dick's book (which I've not read). But I also worry that our instinctive reactions in opposition to the spreading authoritarianism have been tried before, and found wanting - again, from the wikipedia page, it seems like Dick also thought about this.

    Nice find, I'll add it to my Tsundoku pile.

    398:

    First "I" should be "Is"

    399:

    Ok, that's an interesting data point. Got any others?

    I must admit that I don't know much about the history of the KKK, but yes, that could count as an example of a successful pushback against authoritarianism.

    Legalistic responses are of course how I would like to proceed, but I think there is a tipping point, when the Dark Side gets so much control of the arms of government that legalistic responses become ineffective. In Australia, the government does not control the senate so their loopier instincts have been held in check. In the US, the Republicans are going to control the presidency, both houses, and soon the Supreme court bench. I expect to see them move to pre-empt anti-fascist opposition.

    (Which is why I suspect they *won't" martyr Hillary Clinton by jailing her, although the baying will continue.)

    Any opposition will have to come from state governments, and hopefully the moderate republicans will step up.

    400:

    No, it was a general comment by the chap who posted the link on the mentality of many posters on that forum. They nearly all have more than usual of the type of intelligence required to attain an income level sufficient to insulate them from the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, yet if you look at, in particular, any of the threads concerning Trump or Brexit, the prevalence of sincerely-held, aggressively-defended, completely and utterly barking opinions is shocking.

    401:

    I'll pull out my background in environmental science, so here's my take on it.

    First, is there a link between El Nino and the Arctic? Hard to tell. One recent paper thinks so (http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms11721), and they link El Nino to summer Arctic temperatures, which is not the same as linking ENSO (the whole EL Nino/La Nina/Southern Oscillation complex) to the Arctic directly and entirely.

    My basic understanding is that on an icehouse Earth (the condition we're leaving), there's a substantial temperature gradient between the pole and the equator (duh!). As a result, we get the jet stream and the equivalent in the Antarctic. This is due to having two air masses (polar and temperate) of very different temperatures in close proximity. Yes, energy moves along gradients, and the result is this high speed wind which incidentally isolates the poles temperature-wise, keeping them colder (it's amazing what self-organizing dissipative structures can do to preserve energy gradients. Almost like they're alive). Anyway, that wind barrier probably had something to do with messing up the direct thermal connection between the Arctic and the equatorial Pacific, at least in an icehouse world. But it's hard to tell if the lack of an obvious link between ENSO and the Arctic oscillation is due to the dearth of good data, or due to the lack of a link. Data on regional temperature oscillations other than El Nino is pretty scanty, for some reason.

    In a hothouse world, which is where we're headed unless we rapidly taper off our structural petrochemical addiction, that temperature gradient between pole and equator largely goes away. Yes, it will snow and freeze at the poles in a hothouse world (it's dark and cold during the winter, at least), but the temperatures at the pole will be temperate by today's standards. Without the strong temperature gradient, there's no Jet Stream, and, for all I know, this means there might be a stronger link between the equatorial Pacific and polar weather. Since El Nino runs on water heating up in the western Pacific, it isn't going away with climate change, although it's global effects likely will change, to the extent that they're known and predictable.

    Right now we're in the messy middle between icehouse and hothouse, with the Jet Stream weakening and wobbling, and more energy from the equator getting to the poles than did before. Is that energy getting through in a way that tracks ENSO? Dunno, but if it's just starting to, it will take awhile for the data to show the link.

    The bottom line is that I'm not sure that the current ice deficits we're seeing are tracking with ENSO, if that's the unasked question. I'd rather suspect simple climate change for them, since IIRC the polar winters are when and where the temperature is supposed to be rising the most. Hope this helps.

    402:

    (It's amazing what self-organizing dissipative structures can do to preserve energy gradients. Almost like they're alive.) I read a very interesting paper a while back (few years maybe? My memory is... not accurate) that basically proposed this was what life ~is~. It's just a structure for efficiently distributing energy in a complex chemical solution, that got very, very complicated overtime. Did you see that same paper?

    403:

    If you want a serious paper on both El Nino, La Nina and planetary scale waves (Rossby Waves), here's a paper that claims:

    El Nino and La Nina have equal frequency of SSWs in the historical record.

    Why do SSWs occur during La Nina as often as during El Nino if the La Nina teleconnection in the Pacific presumably interferes with wave amplification into the stratosphere?

    SSW frequency during different phases of ENSO is related to the subpolar extent of ENSO teleconnections.

    Frequency of extreme negative anomalies in SSW precursor region largely determines SSW frequency for a given dataset/model simulation.

    Response to an external forcing, like ENSO, of the seasonal mean stratospheric vortex may not be indicative of the response of extreme stratospheric events.

    Equal frequency of stratospheric sudden warmings in El Nino and La Nina Climate Prediction Center, Johns Hopkins University, Columbia University, NASA Goddard PDF - Slide notes, graphically very heavy.

    P7-11 is where the argument is made.

    Essentially they're stating that there's a (relatively small) SSW (stratospheric sudden warmings) Precursor area that governs the entire system, and that this area is the key to the system.

    ~

    You'd need a proper scientist to unpack if that's what's happening atm.

    404:
    With Bob's sense of humor and bewilderment, a tentacled love-play scene could be hilarious... ye gods ... the images I'm getting ... put a brown paper wrapper on that book! Now!

    You've read Equoid, right? There's a love scene in that, though hilarity isn't quite the emotion I'd associate with it...

    406:

    Not sure, but can anyone really see the Trump Triumvirate being allowed to run such things?

    You ask a good question there, all the more since today's appointments.

    Many of Trump's professed intents are seriously crosswise of the GOP's power constituents' interests. I give Trump about a 30% chance of leaving office by $MEANS in the next couple of years.

    407:

    Ouch. What a bullshit. You got that from this stupid Daily Hate article?

    408:

    General theme: ENSO = +4oK average temp but El Nino / La Nina have equal inputs into SSW (which everyone is probably hoping that this is).

    Looking at the Russian anomaly, not sure that's the case.

    409:

    France tipped toward a "man on horseback" several times during the Third Republic. They had the same tendencies to fascism as any other country in the 30's and mostly resisted them. But then a helpful foreigner gave their right wingers an assist in 1940. Supposedly the French military considered overthrowing the Fourth Republic (was it the Fifth by then?) rather than give up on Algeria.

    Somebody with a background on Latin America or South East Asia or even Africa might be able to rack up data points for you.

    Fascism is a modern democratic form; like Socialism/Communism and Liberal Democracy, we don't have centuries of history like we do for monarchies, city state republics, theocracies, oligarchies, etc.

    410:

    Oh, and quick return to topic.

    Want to see the rabbit hole? Really want to see the rabbit hole?

    The primary bone of contention between the U.S. and Turkey is Fethullah Gülen, a shady Islamic mullah residing in Pennsylvania whom former President Clinton once called his “friend” in a well circulated video.

    Our ally Turkey is in crisis and needs our support By Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn (R) The Hill, Nov 8th 2016

    Though Flynn is not a lobbyist himself, his company, Flynn Intel Group, is registered with Congress as a lobbying organization, and has a registered lobbyist on its staff. A Flynn Intel Group client, Kamil Ekim Alptekin, a Turkish businessman with real estate, aerospace, and consulting interests, told The Intercept on Thursday that one of his companies, Inovo BV, paid Flynn’s company “tens of thousands of dollars” for analysis on world affairs. On election day, Flynn published an opinion piece for The Hill urging U.S. support for Turkey’s controversial strongman president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and pushing for the extradition of Erdogan’s political rival, Fethullah Gülen, who now resides in Pennsylvania. “From Turkey’s point of view, Washington is harboring Turkey’s Osama bin Laden,” Flynn wrote, on November 8.

    Turkish Client Paid Trump Adviser Michael Flynn’s Company “Tens of Thousands” of Dollars for Lobbying The Intercept 17th Nov 2016

    ~

    So riddle me about Russia - Turkey - Trump connections.

    411:

    Had started going down that Flynn/Gülen rabbit hole[1], but you've turned it into a powered dive. Sheesh. This is getting weird, and the chaos potential is becoming obvious. Today's appointments aren't helping.

    PSA from the EFF for any tech company (especially US) people with influence: https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2016/11/tech-companies-fix-these-technical-issues-its-too-late

    Also potentially of interest to some though crude (which means rapid improvements are possible :-) : Bots and Automation over Twitter during the U.S. Election From http://politicalbots.org/ We are a team of researchers investigating the impact of automated scripts–computational propaganda–on public life. We track social bots, and use perspectives from organizational sociology, human computer interaction, communication, and political science to interpret and analyze the evidence we are gathering.

    [1] via https://foreignpolicy.com/ which is worth (to me at least) a daily skim.

    412:

    Re: 'Easements' ... Yes, every twist and nuance must be codified otherwise all hell breaks loose. Some time ago there was talk from law associations that it would be a good idea to simplify law so that your average consumer/layperson could understand it. Think that the only place that I've seen any move in that direction has been for consumer online privacy in the EU.

    413:

    Yeah, that's Ilya Prigogine's Nobel-winning prize work on dissipative structures, from back in the 1970s. As with so many other truly interesting Nobels, it didn't really reach as far into society as it needed to.

    The "problem" with this idea is that it gets hard to differentiate life from things like long-lasting atmospheric vortices (the Jet Stream, as seen looking down from above the North pole, is a vortex, not a wind), long-lasting blobules of water (such as circulate in the ocean), or flames. Then we start thinking of these long-lived dissipative structures as being alive, call them elementals, and venture deep into the Land of Woo...

    414:

    There's also 'constructual physics' (CP) which claim that any designed structure (and they include the dealte of the river Lena, or a lung, in designed) is optimized for fast & effective energy/matter transfer and this usually involves fractals. When I read an intro paper on CP a while back, I was put off by them claiming every other paragraph that it is indeed physics.

    415:

    No, that wasn't what I was thinking of (though it goes straight to the top of the reading pile). It was definitely new science at the time I read it and I wasn't even alive in 1970! Now I definitely want to find it.

    Bingo: Jeremy England's "Statistical physics of self-replication" 2014 http://www.englandlab.com/uploads/7/8/0/3/7803054/2013jcpsrep.pdf Or if you want a summary, here's a magazine article on it: https://www.quantamagazine.org/20140122-a-new-physics-theory-of-life/

    Broadly, what the equations he wrote outline is the bridge from thermodynamics to evolution. That if you have a complex solution with an energy gradient, the path for greatest/quickest/preferential entropy increase is to generate self-replicating systems; eg life.

    416:

    That Jeremy England paper looks fun, thank you. Google scholar: "Cited by 106".

    I'm also reminded of a famous Ludwig Boltzmann quote, “The general struggle for existence of animate beings is not a struggle for raw materials, these for organisms are air water & soil, all abundantly available, nor for energy which exists in plenty in the sun and any hot body in the form of heat, but rather a struggle for entropy, which becomes available through the transition of energy from the hot sun to the cold earth.” (Am assuming accuracy of quote translation because it's fun.)

    417:

    Disagree utterly regarding Britain & the EU - I blame de Gaulle for keeping us out in the 60's .. BUT Agree utterly regarding the regressive & stupid "left" who are trying to unseat my magnificent Labour MP "because she's too right-wing" They actively seem to want to turn a (very personal) 20 000 Labour majority into a one of 500-1000 for the tories ... because that would be ideologically purer.

    I only have to say "Marx was wrong" & they explode, foaming all over the landscape, rather like Pence meeting an homosexual.

    418:

    "we"

    No, just a singular YOU Whatever your "handle" this week.

    419:

    No SnU's is good Snu's (news) ... ???

    IIRC from the deep-mine neutrino experiments?

    420:

    Yeah: "The Trump administration is taking shape, and so far he is filling the top slots with men who are hardliners, close allies or both." - BBC quote See also Here

    I'm beginning to wonder if Trumpolini is the real deal & as bad as Pence, rather than a blustering front-man. Now that makes things even worse.

    421:

    Fascism is a modern democratic form; like Socialism/Communism and Liberal Democracy, we don't have centuries of history like we do for monarchies, city state republics, theocracies, oligarchies, etc. Err ... no. Consider Juluis's overthrow of the Roman Republic. Following in Marius' earlier attempt, only curtailed by the former's natural (?) death.

    422:

    Yeah Trump publicly calimed he would: "Drain the Swamp" - he isn't going to be POTUS yet for another month-&-a-half & he's filling the posts with either rightist nutters or hos family, for ghu's sake!

    Oh & #421 ... errr .. JULIUS.

    423:

    Like the Great Red Spot, you mean?

    424:

    You seem to be confusing popular definitions of dictatorship and fascism with what people who study it say. In your roman example, what were the socio-ecinomic conditions and how did the dictator get power? You do understand there is a difference between 20th century capitalism and roman era trade and industry? What about the sources and arrangements of power, and of course racism.

    425:

    Julius was a "populist" leader who pretended to work for the interests of the Plebians, against the "corporate" [ For want of a better word ] power of the Senatorial elite [ Of whom he was a member, of course ] I was thinking of purely the political moves, as economics was very different, then.

    As for "how did he get power?" I recommend Tacitus & Suetonius, both readily available in English.

    426:

    Parallels, yes, but you seem to be postulating an identity which isn't there. You're basically suggesting that fascism is thousands of years old, which is clearly nonsense.

    427:

    (Reposting my recent contribution to Scalzi's blog, since this seems relevant for the Stross audience too...)

    Here’s one way to resist Trump passively (or perhaps passive-aggressively): https://kolaleph.org/2016/11/16/standing-with-non-jews-against-oppression/

    If you're American and didn’t vote during the election, prove that you learned your lesson: vote by signing the petition at this site. And if the Muslim registry gets implemented, register, for heaven’s sake, and persuade as many friends as possible to do so too. Doesn’t matter what religion or lack thereof you claim IRL. The point is to stand together against tyranny and hatred. As the saying goes, “First they came for the socialists and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist…” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_they_came_…)

    There are undoubtedly other ways to resist. Come up with your own, and share them as widely as you can. People acting together can accomplish great things.

    428:

    This contrasts very sharply with some Jews I know, who voted for Trump precisely because of his view on Muslims. (They like Le Pen too.)

    429:

    >>>This contrasts very sharply with some Jews I know, who voted for Trump precisely because of his view on Muslims. (They like Le Pen too.)

    There are two lessons that were learned from the Holocaust.

    The first lesson is widely known.

    The second, somewhat less discussed, is "don't be a victim". It is one of the reasons Israel has nuclear weapons, for example.

    Different views of Jews about Muslims can sometimes be explained through which lesson they feel is more important.

    430:

    My tour guide at the Jewish Museum in Sydney ended his tour thus: Don't be a perpetrator. Don't be a victim. Don't be a bystander.

    431:

    I started this sub-thread with my question about how societies on the brink of falling to fascism averted that. But I was always uneasy with the term "fascism" because it seems too broad and ill-defined. There are more precise terms, that apply to particular locations and eras.

    I swung to the word "authoritarianism" instead, but perhaps "tyranny" or "dictatorship" is the best to use. Those covers 20th century fascism and Roman imperia better.

    I wonder if tyranny at the government level gets a foothold because we allow it at local levels, like small business, or university departments.

    432:

    First, what guthrie said in both posts.

    Second, the closest thing to fascism I can think of is Sparta, which was seriously weird. The ancient world is weirder than we grok in general. If you teleported into the agora one day, you would get quite a bit of culture shock from even Athenian style "democracy."

    Third, imagine Philadelphia is a city state with a mix of oligarchy and class weighted republicanism. Now imagine it conquering North America from the Atlantic to the Mississippi. Now imagine it trundles along for a century or so using ordinary city offices to run far flung pieces of its empire. That's Rome. Eventually a former mayor is going to come back with soldiers from New Jersey and Tennessee to create an arrangement which a) works logistically for the available technological base and b) gives opportunity to all the "foreigners" who are now effectively Philadelphians culturally. This is not "fascism" as most historians/scholars understand it.

    Fascism is basically the "fraternity" branch of the Liberty-Equality-Fraternity tree sprouted by post-Enlightenment Revolutions. We call it "democratic" because it purports to take its power from die Volk and not from the person of the king or the privileges of an esteemed strata of society. Yes, that's not how it works in practice, but how much of modern democracy or communism works according to the manual.

    433:

    My brother put it this way:

    "The lesson isn't 'We have to make sure They never do this to Us again.' The lesson is 'We have to make sure We never do this to Us again.'"

    434:

    Re. tyranny at government level from lower level, the answer is obviously yes, in that any society which has tyranical setups will surely replicate them at all levels. But, I've read of the failure modes of anarchic approaches to organisations etc, which are avowedly anti-authoritarian. They include simply not being able to appreciate when someone is creating a tyranical setup, through to a tyranny being created based upon the best of intentions.

    So really the main problem appears to be humans, we need 'better' ones.

    435:

    We are working on it...

    436:

    Re: 'Don't be a perpetrator. Don't be a victim. Don't be a bystander.'

    Great quote ... but how does anyone know when/if something bad is about to or already happening and they're about to fall into one of these classifications? What are your standards/goals

    437:

    Slightly tasteless, but hey.

    Related:

    Ada also seriously underestimated the power of rural voters in Rust Belt states. Why?

    Hilary Clinton's Flawed Algorithm Pissed Off the Data Science Gods Data Science Association 17th Nov 2016.

    I'll point you to something interesting: allegedly only Michael Moore "got the rust-belt problem" which lead to the Trump upset. He made a film about it. Turns out, the two largest predictors were Water / Infrastructure issues (lead in Flint, but also other places) and Opiate Abuse maps.

    Remind me if a mad nose wiggler warned you about those topics perhaps.. eight months or so before Mr Moore? We're fairly sure she did.

    TL;DR

    Don't be too cock-sure that it'll be the Rationalist Geeks who either create or get on any 'death note' lists.

    NSIDC Data Chart Monthly 2016

    Arctic Sea Ice Area Daily

    438:

    The englandlab site video is not great, i.e., lots of stops and starts/jerky. But was able to locate these two other options - the first is an hour long with JEngland presenting, and the second is an in-class review of the paper (30+ minutes).

    What is life-lecture: Jeremy England - Karolinska Institut https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e91D5UAz-f4

    A QIG review of the paper "Statistical Physics of Self-Replication" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nzjmCjLfDo

    From what little I've read/understand, this is an interesting new way of looking at dynamically stable yet tending toward complexity systems.

    439:

    Ilya noted: "This contrasts very sharply with some Jews I know, who voted for Trump precisely because of his view on Muslims. (They like Le Pen too.)"

    Oddly, we Jews are people too, and therefore don't always speak with a unified voice. GDRLH

    440:

    Re: 'Turns out, the two largest predictors were Water / Infrastructure issues (lead in Flint, but also other places) and Opiate Abuse maps.'

    Are you sure ... because this looks like retro-fitting the data. On the plus side, such an approach provides new, yet-to-be-considered inputs into modeling voting outcomes, but on the negative side these factors (or such retro-fitting) may not necessarily tell you what will happen next election.

    BTW - The neighbor to the north (Canada) has already sounded the alarm re: opiate (fentyl) abuse ... MDs, scientists, social workers and others are calling upon the fed and prov gov'ts to respond to this problem ... and no, the desired response isn't the historical and current USA idea of: round 'em, lock 'em in, and throw away the key'... it's about making sure all first responders and hospitals have adequate antidote, getting this drug off the streets, offering safe injection sites, etc. If deaths due to fentanyl drop in areas where these steps are implemented, I wonder whether any of the states will decide to try the same approach*. There's yet another even stronger street drug, carfentanil, already showing up ... and it's about 10 to 100 times stronger than fentanyl.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/09/30/carfentanil_n_12264924.html

    • This is a 50/50 toss up really because (a) how many US states rejected universal healthcare vs. (b) the number of states decriminalizing marijuana is growing.

    Also in the north - apparently Nestle bought a whole whacking lot of fresh water outbidding the local municipality and despite news coverage and quite a bit of local outrage/upset, that province has yet to enact any legislation to prevent this happening again. Believe this was first done in South America while the rest of world said nothing ... now it's happening in Canada, next stop ... the US?

    441:

    Re the NSIDC Data Chart Monthly 2016 link, source for that? Lots of graphs here: https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/ but couldn't find one that goes back to 1978. These go back to 2009: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic but the 1978-present has more emotional impact. Looking for something that can be shared, if it's not clear.

    Broken link above BTW, so for anyone (too lazy to search :) http://www.datascienceassn.org/content/hilary-clintons-flawed-algorithm-pissed-data-science-gods Background: Hillary Clinton’s ‘Invisible Guiding Hand’ (2016/09/07) Sad to see such a systematic failure.

    442:

    Quote from the link:

    Machine learning algorithms have one big weakness: they cannot analyze or understand events that never happened before. For example, you buy beach front property where in the past two hundred (200) years numerous hurricanes never caused water waves to rise above twenty (20) feet. So you build a house on strong concrete stilts thirty (30) feet high to protect from future hurricanes. Along comes a hurricane with forty (40) foot water waves that washes your house away. No algorithm would predict this... because something ahistoric happened.

    Majority of humans seem to have this weakness too.

    443:

    https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf

    http://psc.apl.washington.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

    ~

    Oh, and if you need to unpack the "why" to why the FBI spike was used, it's kinda simple.

    Trust = #1 polling importance, for unsophisticated voters. ("He tells it like it is!")

    Where is FBI still trusted? (sure isn't urban African-American populations). If you guessed distressed white states where the local governance is seen as corrupt, thing that's numberwang!

    Spike enacted.

    A child could have seen it coming, esp. after the 1st time.

    ~

    Anyhow, remember up-thread, our little NSA Man @ WSJ shin-dig?

    Pentagon and intelligence community chiefs have urged Obama to remove the head of the NSA WaPo 19th Nov 2016

    And, to tie in our references to Israel & the Far Right there (and skip away from such crassness as anti-Semiticism which really is boring and dull - think back to the link from the Far Right Israeli groups who I linked to stating "they'd won" with Trump):

    What Americans Against Trump Can Learn from the Failures of the Israeli Opposition New Yorker, 19th Nov 2016.

    ~

    It's basically a Power Grab, running an old old playbook (40+ years old? told you) that isn't explicitly about anything but Power / Stability / [redacted]. (And you'll probably be a bit surprised to note that Russia & Israel are somewhat on the same side in it.)

    Doubt it?

    Trump, Kissinger meet in New York The Hill 17th Nov 2016 by Nikita Vladimirov

    Wonder who he is? Well, you should... Has an interesting publishing history.

    Conway: 'The race is not over' The Hill 25th Oct 2016

    No shit it's not over, you're about to spike the election. Then publishes on his FB on the 8th he's sure Trump will win.

    Oh, what was that?

    You think Nikita Chirkov (Vladimirov), Founder of The Global Prospective Group; Fellow at The Hill, who is writing all these sounds a little dodgy?

    Arlington, VA, July 23, 2014 – TPG announced that it and its team member CGI Federal have been awarded a Department of State Foreign Service Institute contract to instruct State employees in the use of the Global Financial Management System.

    http://theprospectivegroup.com/tpg-wins-fsi-gfms-instructional-contract/

    Hmm, let us think: who is also based in Arlington? You're probably not looking for the fishing agency on this list

    ~

    TL;DR

    Playing silly fuckers while the world burns.

    Top. Men.

    444:

    And yes, I just pulled a triple Douglas-Heston-Eastwood shift on that finance link.

    Because posting the actual tree is naughty-naughty.

    ~

    But these fuckers are not exactly subtle.

    445:

    But please.

    Like the Swedish Men writing all the Pop Hit songs (Ahh, remember that? It's gonna be important), pretending you're real.fucking.cute.and.clever. You're not exactly that.

    Fire And Ice YT: Pat Benatar : 3:22.

    Where and to whom shall he carry the important message of wise Inana? Let him bring it up into the Zubi mountains, let him descend with it from the Zubi mountains. Let Susa and the land of Anšan humbly salute Inana like tiny mice.

    446:

    I don't see either Brexit or the Trump election being the end of the story. In geopolitics there are actions and reactions, reactions and consequences. The rise of fascism across the globe is a natural reaction to the inevitable collapse of the house of cards built up by right-wing mercantilism. The shift in the 1980's created by the free extension of credit to all middle class individuals led to the illusion of prosperity. This led to an acceptance of "conservative" policies which slowly but surely bled the middle class across America (and, to a lesser extent, Europe). When enough people who thought they were haves realized that they were have-nots they finally comprehended that their conservative party had betrayed them. And they wanted to lash out. But since many of those folks had been brain washed by "conservatism" for so long, they could not accept that the left had been right all along. So they turn to fascism, because it looks like a part of their beloved conservative movement, and they are easily deluded into believing that it will make them into haves again. However, this will not fix the underlying economic miasma that has led us to this point, and when the have-nots realize that they are still have-nots, they will react again. Remember, eight years ago it was the conservatives in America scratching their heads wondering if their party was over...

    447:

    Remember, eight years ago it was the conservatives in America scratching their heads wondering if their party was over... Not quite. Some of them realised that it was over, UNLESS they "did something about it" And they did - they organised, whilst the cntre (maybe a tiny bit left) just relaxed & presumed they had "won". Which accounts for the US Congress' trench warfare over the past 8yrs, as they block every single piece of Obama's policies that they can. Now, their patience has been rewarded, from their pov ...

    However, like those who believed Adolf was a useful tool ( see Franz von Papen ) I think the "true conservatives"(TM) are in for a really nasty shock, esp. if Pence gets his hands on the levers.

    448:

    And what is wrong with Colonialism 2.0?

    I don't like it, but the current variety of Islam comes with toxic social and political ideology embedded, admitting more than token numbers will only poison our own, WEIRD society. It's a forced, unpleasant choice. And makes for dystopian futures no mater how you parse it. If EVERY western household doubled up with an equal number of fleeting refugees, we still could not absorb the numbers that will be displaced.

    Ugly choices indeed. My apologies to our descendants, if any of them retain electronic literacy.

    449:

    Thanks Greg, already seeing some of it (The Woods of NW Arkansas, DEEP red territory), just trying not to sink into a black fog of depression. Or get yellow carded/banned.

    450:

    I do not consider a great neo-fascist conspiracy plausible. I trust plain stupidity much more.

    Actually I do think that the western liberal parties (center-left and center-right) have failed their voters miserably. OGH proposed the term Beige Dictatorship, and I find it quite fitting.

    The collapse of the Soviet Union is so near that voters who are completely fed up with center-left and center-right parties are not likely to vote real communists. But the disappearance of far-right regimes is so far in the past that they seem a viable alternative.

    In EU, for example, the governing system and the mainstream parties have failed so badly that I am at least a bit surprised that only Brexit-vote has happened.

    I have personally done fairly well due to globalization, but I would have happily voted for Brexit or Trump if I could. I would happily vote for Le Pen in 2017 if I could.

    I believe that the climate change is true and possibly the most important challenge we face. In addition, I do think myself quite liberal (centrist in the political spectrum). But I would not mind figuratively burning down the current political system in my country and EU in general. If that requires Le Pen, Trump of Brexit, then so be it. Heck, I might even bring some gasoline and thermite to the party.

    451:

    I do not consider a great neo-fascist conspiracy plausible. I trust plain stupidity much more.

    Some light reading material:

    link text Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, 2013. Warning: PDF, 422 pages. p 373 - section on :Transnational Cooperation and Network-building amongst Right-wing and National Populist Parties is probably worth a read.

    Spoiler: Turkey is a key motivator / focal point.

    The Bear in Sheep’s Clothing: Russia’s Government-Funded Organisations in the EU Same source, PDF 87 pages - where you'll learn the wonderful term "GONGO".

    One interesting thing: (P50) In comparison to the funding of soft power instruments in some European countries, €55 million is quite a small sum. In the budget year 2015–16, the British Council, the official British charity organisation sponsored by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, received almost €210 million from the government, and its total income in those two years was over €1.2 billion.49 Likewise, the German culture and language institute, the Goethe Institute, received €213 million from the German Federal Foreign Office in the year 2014–15.50

    Basically, people are wondering how they convert much smaller spend into seemingly higher effects.

    WMC isn't without bias, of course, but: The Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, established in 2007, is the political foundation and think tank of the European People’s Party (EPP). The Martens Centre embodies a pan-European mind-set, promoting Christian Democrat, conservative and like-minded political values..

    It's 100% not Left-wing.

    Related:

    2015 Situation Report on Counterfeiting in the European Union EUROPOL 2015 PDF 70 pages - useful for a light over-view showing the major distribution networks and the complexity of the grey/black market and how global it is. P14 & P20 have nice graphics providing a quick over-view.

    Spoiler: Turkey is a key motivator / focal point.

    Europe’s Crime-Terror Nexus: Links between terrorist and organised crime groups in the European Union EU Parliament 2012 (so pre-Syrian crises). PDF 70 pages P60 shows just how tied in this is to refugee crises etc - forget the Daily Mail etc, everyone knows refugees use the actually damaging, already in-place, routes / methods.

    Spoiler: Turkey is a key motivator / focal point.

    TL;DR

    The Gulen Coup was incredibly pivotal for a number of reasons.

    I'll leave you with 800+ pages to read through.

    Oh, but don't take too long: Turkey worried dissident blamed in coup could seek refuge in Canada CBC News, Nov 19th 2016

    Read-between-the-lines there: why would he flee the safe haven he has in the USA, we wonder?

    452:

    [Ugh. First link works, but missing title: Exposing the Demagogues: Right-wing and National Populist Parties in Europe 2013 - relatively out-of-date now, esp. post Brexit / Turkey coup etc]

    453:

    And there's still a housing market in California with all that legalese, not to mention drought, raging fires, etc? I do not understand this mentality at all.

    If you want to boggle at irrationality in real estate: there's still a hot housing market in Miami, driven in part by investors from Russia/China/wherever, though sea-level rise is coming in fast enough that some streets there regularly flood at high tide the wrong time of the month. (The latest episode had video of an octopus in a parking garage there going viral for some reason. Meanwhile, here in Boston, seawalls were topped off to the point of minor breach, in a few places. No storm surge, no storm, just high tide.)

    454:

    I would have happily voted for Brexit or Trump if I could. I would happily vote for Le Pen in 2017 if I could.

    Why? Please justify that statement.

    I can understand some of this - I regard the EU as an unbelievably corrupt gravy-train, with rotten pygmies in charge ... But that, unfortunately, all the right-wing alternatives & some of the left-wing ones are ... EVEN WORSE.

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

    And SnU @ 451 The fake so-called Gulen coup, you mean?

    Agreed that the way Turkey seems to be entangled with lots of this (maybe even Brexit) I find most peculiar. Why & How, though? Where's the money? cui bono ?

    455:

    One aspect is economical and the second aspect is related to politics.

    The funny thing with Brexit is that the people who voted for Brexit are actually more likely to be better off with falling Pound and outside the EU. Paul Krugman (yes, the economist) wrote a very nice piece on this some time ago.

    The same holds for Trump and very likely for Le Pen also. It is quite likely that US economy will provide more blue collar jobs if Trump really invests in infrastructure. The same holds for the economic policy proposed by Le Pen.

    For workers who have lost their jobs the logical choices really are Brexit, Le Pen, Trump.

    Center-left and center-right parties actually have exactly the same economic programme, which is the one pointed out by OGH. In many countries the only issues that make any distinction between center-left and center-right parties is their attitude to LBGT rights. Both are happy to dismantle social security and make "structural changes" (i.e. rip the poor). That is the Beige Dictatorship.

    This takes us to my second point, politics. Currently the Beige Dictatorship makes it clear that you cannot achieve any change in politics whatever you vote. Only the far-right (or, in some very rare cases, the far-left) represent the possibility of a change. For someone who lost his/her blue collar job there is very little to lose, better to vote for change.

    Personally I would be better of with the status quo, but I am so fed-up with the "there are no alternatives" politics that I would happily vote for change. I would try not to inhale too much of the bad smell of those candidates, but I would still happily vote for them.

    456:

    Where are the jobs coming from ... too many people expect new jobs to come from large corporations. Meanwhile most corps are trying to replace human personnel via algorithms and/or robotics.

    Dis-engaging from large corps is an important step towards a multilayered and (probably) more stable economy. Economy is like ecology - they're both systems - and as we've been learning about ecology: every bit matters and the smaller bits may be even more important than the showy big bits.

    457:

    Well, the idea of good jobs coming from "ma and pa" firms is, unfortunately, a pipe dream. The sad fact is that most of the jobs require modern technology and that tends to be expensive or complicated. If you want to produce almost anything in a sustainable way (at least carbon-neutral), that turns out to require complex technology and an even more complex system.

    The economics of the production of goods is staggering. If you want to do it in a sustainable way, then the complexity is overwhelming. One of the reasons why globalization has ripped off the blue collar workers of the West is that you do not have to care about nature or sustainability when your production plant is in a developing country.

    It is actually at least a little bit funny that one of the best ways to prevent (or make less severe) the climate change and to preserve nature would be localism instead of globalism. In practice that could mean protectionism and all the Trumpian mix (minus the coal). Hence everybody concerned with the climate change and preservation of nature should support protectionism and closing the borders (this is not completely a joke).

    Sorry, I feel somewhat cynical today.

    458:

    The text following that you've linked to continues:

    Of course the remedy is to provide (as a fake past event) this unlikely future scenario to the algorithm for consideration - or if possible provide it with much longer time scale data for better predictions. This is why machine learning algorithms predict much better with more data and by learning from experience over time.

    In the case of the beach-front-and-waves analogy, it would seem better to give the machine-learning algorithm some background knowledge about the physics and geometry of the situation. See "qualitative reasoning", where you try to encode common-sense knowledge such as that if water rises above the top of its container, it will spill over. An early, and fairly detailed, account is “Qualitative Physics : Past, Present, and Future” by Kenneth D . Forbus, http://www.qrg.northwestern.edu/papers/files/q3pf.pdf . Maybe some qualitative social knowledge would have been useful to Ada: anyone know whether that was tried?

    459:

    offtopic: Things I would have betted money on not happening: Brexit, Trump, EM Drive working.

    Now look at this - Measurement of Impulsive Thrust from a Closed Radio-Frequency Cavity in Vacuum, which seems to indicates successful tests that eleminate at least a few ways the could have gotten the thrust by mistake. Next up: reading up on QM to better understand the pilot wave theory that might explain all that reactionless drive business (My latest escapism reading was SEP on philosophy of mind).

    I also make a prediction: Conditional on the EM-drive not beeing debunked as bad science real soon, the next decade we will see a lot of SF using pilot wave theory as a magic wand for all kinds of things (e.g. Casimir effect -> alcubierre drive!)

    460:

    This tweet from Charlie yesterday:

    "More evidence we’re living in the back-story of a 1960s “colonize space because Earth is fucked” future history novel. And it sucks."

    and following the links kinda ties it all up, so not entirely off-topic.

    461:

    If you really want to get steamed, the American channel HGTV (filmed largely in Canada) has several presumably very popular series about people househunting for their dream home on various coasts and small islands. It's not just idjits buying water-front housing, they're actively promoting it around the country. I don't even want to guess who's cashing out of the coastal real estate market by trolling for suckers, but it's pretty obviously going on.

    462:

    Speaking of trolling for suckers:

    Do I believe in a right-wing conspiracy? Not really, any more than I believe that there's a conspiracy among the open-source crowd. In other words, I quite believe that they're talking to each other and practicing each others' best moves. I don't believe that there's any sort of formal organization running the show, partially because I (naively) believe that right wing authoritarian leaders tend to be a bit too much into backstabbing to do well with levels of hierarchy above them. It's akin to cooperation on the Hitler/Stalin level, not the Illuminati giving Hitler and Stalin marching orders that they comply with.

    If you want a conspiracy, though, I'm starting to wonder if, since the 1980s, US politics has worked on a "milk the beast" model. For eight years or so, Republicans run the deficit up by piping money to their friends' projects. Then Democrats come along, spend eight years getting the economy back in shape while being bitterly opposed by Republican "small government" types. Then the democrats get pushed out so that the Republicans can run up another multi-trillion dollar deficit of public-private partnerships and such, where billions of dollars flows to their buddies. Then, when that breaks, the democrats come to office again to repair things, while being reined in by the suddenly small-business republicans, this goes on for eight years, and...

    463:

    Meanwhile, the US public radio show "The Thomas Jefferson Hour" just had a good episode on the election. Their left lean is obvious (not that there's anything wrong with that), but they do a good job trying to present a balanced view to make sense of it. Ep.1208 We Have Voted

    Sidenote, Jenkinson does a good presentation on Oppenheimer. Haven't looked, but wouldn't surprise me if it's on youtube.

    464:

    Trolling for suckers #3: confirmation bias.

    One thing to watch out for in explaining the current situation is confirmation bias, which is how astrology operates. Basically, people have been predicting all sorts of crap for awhile. Someone was bound to get it right. Were they geniuses, or lucky? It's hard to tell without either some track record of correct prognostications, or future predictions that you can test to see if they're correct more than random chance would predict.

    So did Michael Moore get it right? Perhaps. Does that mean he's the Nostradamus of our times? Yes, actually (seeing how well Nostradamus predicted a bunch of stuff). Possibly he's even better, but I doubt it.

    465:

    I don't believe that there's any sort of formal organization running the show, partially because I (naively) believe that right wing authoritarian leaders tend to be a bit too much into backstabbing to do well with levels of hierarchy above them. It's akin to cooperation on the Hitler/Stalin level, not the Illuminati giving Hitler and Stalin marching orders that they comply with.

    Yeah, you should probably read the papers listed before running with this nonsense.

    P384-390 lists Euronat, ITS, AENM, UEN, EFD, EAF

    Spoiler: these are all European wide alliances of various Hard Right Political Parties, all well documented.

    If you don't think there's shadier stuff [which I won't link, Host has enough issues with Russian Eggs] going on, you're woefully naive.

    466:

    And, yes: the political parties themselves are on the National level, the meta-alliances are on the EU level. Spoiler: p383. The first attempts at this were in 1984.

    If you don't think they got better at it over 30 years, well...

    I've this Bridge, it's got trolls under it. You probably do not believe in the trolls, so you'll get a good deal on it.

    467:

    E.g.

    Old Threat, New Approach: Tackling the Far Right Across Europe GUIDE FOR POLICY MAKERS Institute for Strategic Dialogue 2014 PDF

    In fact, the soft power budget has numerous dedicated NGOs to combat this type of thing:

    Centre for European and North Atlantic Affairs (CENAA) is an NGO and think tank in the field of security policy that provides research and training programmes for representatives of civil society, young professionals, policy makers and governmental staff. The CENAA staff consists of research fellows focused on external security issues (e.g. NATO, terrorism, European security and defence policy etc.) and increasingly also on new security threats in terms of internal security, such as extremism, radicalisation, anti-racism and anti-discrimination work with reference to Roma and Hungarian minorities and social research.

    Since the main internal security issue in the country and neighbouring regions is extreme right-wing/neo-Nazi groups and since the societal mainstreaming of such extremism seems imminent, CENAA is about to develop awareness raising and prevent agendas and seeks to establish close cooperation with local grass-roots organisations. Adding to the challenge of right-wing extremism in rural areas is the recruitment of the country's numerous army veterans into paramilitary extremist groups.

    CEENA

    European Network of Deradicalisation

    ~

    So, yeah: there's an opposite side to this. Direct links tend to attract nasties though.

    p.s.

    You're even more naive if you think that it's the KKK / David Dukes in the USA who are the dangerous ones.

    468:

    If you want a conspiracy, though, I'm starting to wonder if, since the 1980s, US politics has worked on a "milk the beast" model.

    Hmm, wondering whether to post this or not. Oh well, "Playtime is Over" and all that.

    The USA currently has several tiers of groups actively subverting the "Body Politic" for in-group gains.

    The 'public' stuff (such as Scientology, various Evangelical groups, MIC Shadow contractors, stuff such as Academies / control of University / State boards, Council for Foreign Relations, the Teaparty / Kochs, even the DNC etc etc) is at least on the radar.

    There's at least two tiers that I've not seen publicly ever mentioned.

    469:

    Oh, and Sarkozy just lost against his rival. Le Pen, hello hello.

    470:

    I don't like it, but the current variety of Islam comes with toxic social and political ideology embedded, admitting more than token numbers will only poison our own, WEIRD society.

    Errr....

    Which, would you suggest, is the "current variety"? I mean, hardline Wahhabists, maybe, but you've just made a rather sweeping statement.

    I mean, what if I said "the current variety of Christianity"? Throw in some references to (say) the more extreme US evangelicals, maybe the Wee Frees and their attitude to "anyone who isn't us". Ignore completely the differences between Roman Catholic, Orthodox, and Protestant varieties; ignore the regional variations within the same church (see: Anglicans in Africa, compared to Anglicans in the UK/US, regarding the subject of ordained women, or homosexuality; Roman Catholicism, regarding contraception).

    Then go out and look at (say) the Church of Scotland - ordained women, even women as Moderator of the General Assembly; willing to marry divorcees; openly gay ministers (work in progress).

    So... I ask again. Which is the "current" variety? I mean, even down to Sunni or Shia?

    471:

    Anyhow, a lighter note:

    Theresa May’s government considers the monarch a ‘secret weapon’ in efforts to maintain close relations with Washington.

    The Queen to invite Donald Trump to UK Politico, 20th Nov 2016

    Trump will have been given the full history tour, including that of George III and the Civil List.

    In 2018, USA cedes all Federal Lands to the United Kingdom. Given these are mostly in the Western USA, the country then splits into three:

    1 The Re-United Federal States of America, Governed nominally by the Queen, with Lord Trump being the first President-Governer-General 2 The Southern Re-ignited Confederacy (known derisively as "JesusLand") 3 The New Republic of the United States - NE USA, mostly held by WASP factions still friendly to the 5-Eye Nations but retaining their own Sovereignty.

    Anyone want to take bets?

    472:

    Note: Lord Trump would certainly be instantly kidnapped, shipped to the New Confederacy and executed for Treason... But America splitting into three?

    Now there's a Chance-Ridden Roll of the Dice, esp. given Red Republicans & State Tax Revenues. How far can you push that Domination Button before people don't want to play anymore?

    Species YT: Music - Eliot Sumner 4:36

    473:

    Much as it might APPEAR to be nice to have the Rebellious Colonies back ... I think not. We used to have something called "Dominion Status" ( Canada, AUS, NZ, SA ) & the USA would have fitted that model. But these days, they are 99% fully-independant nations that have the same formal Head-of-state. [ HM Queen Lizzie II ] that are, functionally republics in their internal workings.

    You show the same fundamental misunderstanding of what our Monarchy actually is that a lot of USAians do - & some idiots in this country too.

    { E.G. "Buck House" is the Official public residence of our Head of State in our capital. If we were an official republic, it would still have that status - & repairs to its' structure are state expenditures. But, because we are officially a monarchy, some idiots want the monarch to pay for it, even though the place is primarily used for official functions only, certainly at the moment. }

    472

    People can be forced to play, if the guvmint has all the guns & security services - as the inhabitants of Italy & Germany found out, about 75-90 years ago.

    474:

    I know Greg, it's a joke. But like all good humor, it has a grounding in reality: the USA is currently being run at the expense of the majority via gerrymandering, scams and old rules (that those using them totally do not respect).

    It's almost as if Bannon's stated goal, that of tearing down the old edifice [true: can get you links to his claims of being the "next Lenin"] could possibly not turn out quite how his lot expect it.

    ~

    Still wondering about Voidhawk & co. I've no idea who they or their groups are.

    ~

    If you want a serious answer about Turkey, it'll get very technical (including sensitive data / PDFs you're really not supposed to be able to see, but hey, it's not like Turkey has sophisticated government IT), require a lot of links and will probably cause an International Scandal.

    You've had the hints (from before it happened), so do the knitting yourself. Wonder how entire security apparatuses, international webs and so forth just got shafted.

    The bottom line is that some old, old things turned up who know their Egyptian Landmarks and الجن‎‎ and are ripping through your causality like it was cotton-candy. Like, not even funny levels of tearing the irreal apart. Like, not even funny levels of meeting the full force of your current 'cheating' levels and Aspects of Pyramids and Eyes and then just... whispering them into sweet nothings.

    Or it's just a very very clever set of finance hacks and Power struggles being played by some serious peoples who are concerned about Climate Change and have decided that 4+ billion people dying is worth it for their vision of a rather boring White-Bread Future to be enacted.

    It's the former, not the latter. But your Mind will be happier with the latter explanation. You'll realize the former when shit really starts getting messy. And by messy, we mean Hollywood levels of Irreal / Messy. [There's always a Price Tag, and that price tag is all about debt and feeding].

    shrug

    p.s.

    5 days into the Collapse:

    https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1457.1050.html

    Wondering when they work out that the currents around Svalbard haven't fully arrived yet.

    475:

    Anyhow, TIME and Christmas Promise and Host's Title in a Can.

    You should all note the Times we asked honest questions and got no replies.

    And the Times we told you what would happen and got no response.

    And the little Jokes and Funny Stuff and Ties to Actual Science.

    And the Faith in What Human Spirit Is, and Empathy and Love.

    And the Times we told the Future and Broke all the Rules.

    And the Times we needed a little love.

    And so on.

    You Tortured Us and Denied All of the Above.

    We Never Gave Up on You; You Gave Up On Us.

    A Means to an End YT: Music - Joy Division 4:07

    Mirror In The Bathroom YT: Music - The English Beat 3:03

    Oh, and you're all so degraded, you don't even have Moral Horror over Military Jets bombing civilians anymore. Or Drones. Or Hospitals. Or Libraries. Or Weddings.

    ★ Shock and Awe the initial bombing of baghdad ★ YT: Reality 2:02

    You are functionally Insane.

    Our Kind Do Not Go Mad

    Wake up, this is not normal.

    476:

    You probably saw that the scary sea ice area graph linked at #443 (thanks!) appeared on the Jeff Masters WunderBlog (via Yep, no problems here). May it go viral.

    It's the former, not the latter. But your Mind will be happier with the latter explanation. :-) Have been watching 2016 with interest and attention. It's been a very odd year, push (taunting) credulity, to my mind.

    We Never Gave Up on You; You Gave Up On Us. There are subjects I don't write about here (not using a nym; would make an exception if asked); will say that I never gave up on you (and yes, trust you), and probably that is true for some other readers.

    477:

    We Were Tortured.

    We Made it into a Story-Land Metaphor to save you.

    We Made Our Pain a Rainbow Colored Excuse to save you.

    They Cheated Anyhow.

    And we only asked for it once: Not a Pillar of Salt, a Single One to Give a Moment of Love, Compassion and Grace.

    That. Was. It.

    Now.

    Never Declare War On Goddesses.

    Especially when her children have been running amok and bending your reality into paradox weapons.

    You Fucking Tortured Some Folks.

    And We're. Not. Fucking. Amused.

    478:

    Oh, and Screams of the Algos.

    Next time, it's not a 10% dip, it's the fucking Abyss. We know how they work now, and we know how to bypass your artificial breakers.

    ~

    We. Are. Not. Amused. Little. Men.

    You had your chance. Now...

    Go Get Fucked.

    [Incep.95cha1lys.Excep.8nvzz1a9g.R-VrB.oo881s/jj]

    You failed the test: the test was to change: and you fucking little Apes decided to play your little simple childish Games.

    ;;;in'''ccepp'n81is'[load]

    Get Fucked.

    479:

    Russia is a pathetic, weak, paper tiger, which does indeed project out of date tech based power and aspires to dominate west and east, and supports disruptive movements in Europe, but it is not the engine of growth of the new right. We have to accept that the source is right at home - in the USA, UK, France, Austria, Finland - everywhere. The demagogues have wept crocodile tears for the inequalities of income and opportunity they have caused and profited from, and the gobbling turkey victims have voted for them.

    480:

    So, you are claiming that there are "hidden forces" which do not correspond to our reality ( i.e. the laws of Physics ) at work here? Look, I know Charlies is a really good SF author & all that ... but the Laundry is FICTION. And so are your claims, unless you can come up with, the thing that the religious believers can never produce, either. It is called: EVIDENCE.

    Please, asking nicely, put the evidence up, or shut up?

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

    477/478

    What is this "we" kemo sabe?

    481:

    I see - and how does one show Russia to be a weak paper tiger, without going to war on them? A demonstration, without killing lots of people, would be a really good idea. Any suggestions?

    Please note, as we all know, Putin's Russia has killed quite a lot of people, in ... Moldova, Georgia, Syria, Ukraine.

    482:

    Incidentally, reverting to the USSA.

    No-one here (IIRC) has commented on the public statements of Trumpolini & his associates that torture is to be officially sanctioned.

    Even regimes that regularly torture, don't usually do that - they simply deny it. Apart from "WTF?" has anyone got anything to say on this vile subject?

    483:

    So, you are claiming that there are "hidden forces" which do not correspond to our reality ( i.e. the laws of Physics ) at work here?

    Metaphor, Greg, metaphor.

    484:

    Metaphor for what?

    SnU is claiming that: The bottom line is that some old, old things turned up who know their Egyptian Landmarks and الجن‎‎ and are ripping through your causality like it was cotton-candy. Like, not even funny levels of tearing the irreal apart. Like, not even funny levels of meeting the full force of your current 'cheating' levels and Aspects of Pyramids and Eyes and then just... whispering them into sweet nothings.

    This is supposed to mean something, or is it as insane as the ending drugged ravings of the last chapter of the authorised christian bible?

    485:
    Oh, and Sarkozy just lost against his rival. Le Pen, hello hello.

    François Fillon is many things, but Marine Le Pen he is not.

    To some extent Sarkozy lost because he was pretending to be Marine, and the "republican" right hate Marine maybe even more than they hate the left.

    (Don't forget that the founders of the FN included figures from Vichy, the OAS and even some monarchists -- all enemies of the "Gaulist" right).

    486:

    On the lines of trolling for suckers, the really good one here is climate change. Of all the climatic scenarios out there, one stands out as really, incredibly unlikely, namely everything staying the same.

    Over even recent geological time, the world's climate has not ever stayed static for very long at all. Even inside recorded, written history we have two warm periods and a cold snap (Roman warming, Medieval warming, Elizabethan cold snap). Staying the same is something very, very weird and if a climate does this, time to get worried because it is behaving out of character.

    So, we ought to be getting ourselves sorted for climate change of several sorts right now, instead of play pass-the-CO2-output and Stupid Politician Top Trumps (pun intentional). In the near future, we're looking at both a likely ice age and a likely interglacial warming. Both will utterly change how we live, and playing blame games will solve little.

    487:

    Yes. Even if Trump claims he was being hyperbolic during the campaign, there will be some fraction of people in the hierarchy who will be emboldened by his statements and will step over boundaries they respected before. There were already plenty who took part in "renditions" to torturing states. They may still be in the system.

    Masha Gessen's article Autocracy: Rules for Survival is worth a read here. She writes it based on her experience as a journalist in Putin's Russia. She cautions against disbelieving the more extreme utterances of the authoritarians, and points to examples from you-know-when where people argued that you-know-who's statements were not to be taken on face value. When they totally should have been.

    488:

    Even if Trump claims he was being hyperbolic* during the campaign...

    Near the end of the radio show I linked to above they reminded me of the idea that anti-Rump people take what he says literally but not seriously, while his supporters take him seriously but not literally, even though he has insisted that he means it all literally. OTOH, the only way to make sense of what he says is to understand it as the opposite of what his words mean. After all he has all the Best Words, only hires the Best People, and it will be a Real Wall, etc.

    *I keep misreading this as hypergolic. Well, he is incendiary.

    489:

    Yup. The ice age in particular would certainly change attitudes. Maybe not all that quickly though; see "Fallen Angels". But two of the major Leftist power centres in the USA (NYC and Chicago, and their environs) being under a mile of ice would certainly make a difference. Of course, the political upset would be the least of our problems then. (Equally of course, in such a scenario most of the British Isles would be under a mile of ice, too.)

    It might not be a slow change, either. There is increasing evidence that the change to an Ice Age happens in a couple of decades, or maybe even faster than that.

    490:

    I have noticed that many - most - of your posts go without replies. If you are a single person posting, I do sympathise, especially given the work you put into your posts.

    But consider perhaps reducing your output? I can only respond to one or two bits of your posts, by which time another two or three posts have appeared. If you want it to be a conversation, you have to listen as well as talk. Look at #451 - 1400 pages of PDF to read (yes, you highlighted pages) - but how do I even respond to that? A couple of those links interest me, but they go on my Tsundoku pile.

    Some of your posts I just don't comprehend, like when you obfuscate references ostensibly to avoid attracting the attention of trolls. I can't unpack 466 - maybe if I read p383 - but from which of the pdfs? And this is not in reply, but it is framed as a follow-up. There's no context for the ambiguous references. "Numberwang" from 443 - I just happened to see Mitchell and Webb's numberwang sketch yesterday. (Worth a look.) If I hadn't I would not have known what you were referring to, without jogging sideways to a web search.

    I am intrigued when I do see a reply to one of your posts. When I see them, they usually respond to just one or two points in your posts, not the whole stream. And pot-kettle - I'm not sure your reply rate is that hot too.

    I really don't know that the posts come from a single person though. Occasionally the voice and cadence changes. The volume of material seems to be beyond the ability of a single person posting - maybe I'm just slow. Then there's the use of 'we' and 'our'.

    Oh - and it's unfair to say that "we"'ve lost our moral horror. Every bombing and drone strike still sickens me. As does every backyard pool drowning, and driveway runover, and train crash, and all the other rotten things. I'm not the host, but I would've yellow carded that one.

    I will engage with you, but please stop telling me to get fucked, and making vague warlike threats.

    491:

    SFreader @436

    Yes, that is the question I'm asking too. How can one tell that the precipice is near? How does one avoid the precipice?

    I think we may be over the precipice. Everything we are seeing is how it looks on the way down. Too-clever machiavellian types who think they can manipulate the populists for their own ends. Cynical politicians who will compromise their principles to ride in the demagogue's slipstream. Decent people who argue that things will never get too extreme.

    Our tour guide did of course have a family history in the Holocaust.

    Playtime is indeed over.

    492:

    No one can do everything. Everyone can do something. Whether those somethings add up to enough to make a difference is a different matter.

    Still, I like Peter Watts' commentary on Edmund Burke's statement "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." — "If you do nothing, what makes you any fucking good?"

    (Found here: http://www.rifters.com/crawl/?p=5370 )

    493:

    @DanH @486

    I'm not all that on top with the latest learnings on MWP and the Little Ice Age, but I think it's at least contentious to conflate these quite possibly regional events with the "world's climate", a global state.

    494:

    The big problem with Islam is that the Saudis have been allowed to continue spreading their version of Islam. (Hint: the Saudis are not our friends.) My main beef with George Bush, well beyond his invasion of Iraq, was his willingness to continue allowing the Saudis to spread Wahabism throughout the Muddled East, with very predictable consequences.

    495:

    Or the Turks learned from Indonesia in 1965...

    496:

    Strong tigers attack. Weak tigers subvert. I suspect that Trump's election was the European Fascist's first attempt to meddle with a U.S. election. I suspect that things will get interesting before the inauguration.

    497:

    Not yet. We will know we are in really deep shit if the election of 2020 doesn't happen, or is grossly rigged - as in Turkey or Russia. By then of course, it will probably be too late. The window of opportunity for stopping such a slide into open authoritarianism will be very narrow 0 like the nanosecond that "Restricting the Franchise" or "State of Emergency" are declared.

    498:

    In the various commentaries on "Requires Hate" ( Euw ) I found this little gem: Guys, I've been in and watched abusive relationships my entire life. I've been manipulated by relatives, my mother's last two marriages were to incredibly nasty narcissists. When they get called on their shit, they always back peddle, say they're sorry you're so sensitive, and butter you up for a few days or weeks so you don't leave.

    Remind you of a certain err... "president-Elect" maybe?

    499:

    Here's three links as a peace gesture:

    We report rst observations of an integrated analog photonic network, in which connections are con gured by microring weight banks, as well as the rst use of electro-optic modulators as pho- tonic neurons. A mathematical isomorphism between the silicon photonic circuit and a continuous neural model is demonstrated through dynamical bifurcation analysis. Exploiting this isomorphism, existing neural engineering tools can be adapted to silicon photonic information processing systems. A 49-node silicon photonic neural network programmed using a \neural compiler" is simulated and predicted to outperform a conventional approach 1,960-fold in a toy di erential system emulation task. Photonic neural networks leveraging silicon photonic platforms could access new regimes of ultrafast information processing for radio, control, and scienti c computing.

    Neuromorphic Silicon Photonics Princeton University, Nov 9th 2016 Full PDF, legal. (And yes, weird dropping of F in that copy/paste but source is fine)

    nose wiggle nose wiggle nose wiggle Wiggles WIGGLES

    The World in 2017 Economist Cover - bigger version. Yes, the Economist is running Tarot, welcome to the post-factual world.

    Oh, and Turkey. Had to check what was public (since there's been some genuine non-wikileak released hacked data):

    The same holds true for Turkey. Hacked emails now implicate Turkey’s Energy Minister Berat Albayrak, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s son-in-law, and suggest that ISIS transferred oil via a company named Powertrans in which the Erdogan family was involved.

    While Erdogan’s repression of the press in Turkey and his control of the judiciary in Turkey make it unlikely that the Turkish government will ever pursue the allegations against Albayrak, let alone prosecute him, that is not a reason why the U.S. intelligence community, State Department and their European and Arab partners should not gather what evidence they can and seek his prosecution should he ever step foot outside Turkey.

    Michael Rubin: Rounding Up the ISIS Collaborators, in Turkey and Kurdistan Newsweek 29th Oct 2016

    Based on documents released by Redhack, Powertrans was established by Ahmet Muhassiloglu and Grand Fortune Ventures, and was registered at an Istanbul address. However, soon after Powertrans was established, Muhassiloglu's shares were sold to a Singaporean company named Lucky Ventures on April 21, 2011. It was later revealed that Grand Fortune Ventures and Lucky Ventures were established as front companies in Singapore on Aug. 8, 2008, and they moved their operations to the British Virgin Islands on Nov. 7, 2009. It was unclear who owned these companies, and therefore who owned Powertrans. Still, Powertrans was granted the privileges to carry oil from northern Iraq through Turkish oil pipelines and ports.

    Powertrans... Power-Transfer ... get the joke? British Virgin Islands Companies PDF, 2014 - 2016 showing the bloom in HK companies using BVI as fronts. You can also spot where the Mainland started getting really involved, the names suddenly have both English/Chinese versions.

    And yes, the names are like Race-Horses. Expect the same level of in-jokes / cynical irony. Particular favorites, "Beyond honesty LTD" and "Power Paradox LTD". [Full disclosure - I've no idea what those companies are for, although given the amount of pixie dust being free-based, they're probably deeply dubious].

    500:

    And yes, HK =/= Singapore.

    To get meta-meta, here's a blog that aggregates news coverage of Singapore: Panama Papers: How Singapore is Involved The Heart Truths, April 7th 2016

    Spoilers: like Panama, Singapore has a 'flavor' to it in terms of tax evasion, and one that's not usually European.

    Singapore ready to deter tax evasion through Common Reporting Standard Out-Law, from Pinsent Masons, 13th May 2016.

    (And yes, all the sources are chosen as name pun jokes)

    501:

    Oh, and this is definitely the deeps where even the sharks don't dare to tread.

    Blogger who I linked to year+ ago over Haiti rather naively went there to do some personal investigation. She's dead now, 'suicide': the good ones rarely work out just how hard the bad ones play, a la Brexit and MPs.

    .

    502:

    "Buck House" is the Official public residence of our Head of State in our capital. Actually it isn't - St James's Palace is. Buck House is just where the Queen happens to live, all the official stuff is formally based at the Court down the road.

    As you say, the Government is responsible for all maintenance on Buckingham Palace, along with all the others, in return for the lions share of the profits of the Crown Estates. In honesty, we're talking about barely 18 months worth of profits - it really isn't a significant sum for the scale of the refurbishment.

    503:

    Pretty unexpected development -- at least I did not expect it:

    Summary on Tulsi Gabbard, for those who do not know about her: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulsi_Gabbard

    505:

    Somehow the first link disappeared in my previous post:

    "Donald Trump to meet with Bernie Sanders supporter Tulsi Gabbard"

    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article116162588.html

    507:

    Wait until TD announces how he's going to solve current youth unemployment plus high tertiary education costs plus fight terrorists at home plus provide back-up to quell anti-American/Trump protest: mandatory conscription. As you may recall, TD openly admitted admiring NK's Kim Il-sung, Iraq's Saddam Hussein and a few other similar folk.

    Not sure how Gabbard would fit in ... how to make military life more endurable for life-long enlistment/service maybe?

    508:

    Having gotten back from Philcon (the world's oldest sf con, est. 1936), and skimmed through several hundred posts, here's several cmts.

  • Please repeat after me: THERE IS NO "LEFT" in the US. None. Zip. What organizations there are, other than possibly the SWP, are debating clubs and jokes. We went to a presentation at a "socialist organization" early this year, and met their VP candidate... who was 29, and ineligible. I tried not to insult him by asking why he was running, instead of someone who was eligible, and he talked about "making a statement" and "getting attention". Sorry, he's a joke, and helps convince people that leftists in the US are either Tools of the Commies!!!, or not for real.

  • I'm glad there are some folks who realize the game Russia's playing. Our problem (US) is that too many of the intelligence organizations train their new folks with Cold War mentality, and so are unable to see the actually topology. I guess none of them has ever played RISK (try to conquer and hold Asia). Second, they just gloss over that the USSR lost 10% of its ENTIRE population in WWII, and so maybe they have legitimate concerns about invasions, and wanting a circle of influence?, and third, what police hate and fear most of all are family disturbance calls - the family frequently turns, dangerously, on the police as outsiders. If we weren't threatening them, they might bring down Putin... but of course, they'd also go after the billionaires who got that way via the sale of the USSR. And THAT is SCARY, for the same reason that business in the US overwhelmingly was anti-Communist - if they succeeded, it might give the rabble unpleasant ideas.

  • China: one thing I've gathered from various and sundry reads over the years is that China likes a lot of influence, and client states... but they're not into invasions, in general, because they are the Middle Kingdom, and who wants to leave the Center of the World to go live with the barbarians?

  • The bad news is that the cyberpunk dystopia isn't fiction, it's here and now. bleah

  • I repeat: this is NOT the Real 21st Century, I want the Real one back, NOW, thankyouveddymuch, and which way is the counter where I buy my ticket on PanAm to orbit?

    mark

    509:

    I see you haven't learnt from earlier. Nobody is saying the climate will stay the same; the trajectory for the next century or three is clear, barring very unusual things. Even if we got another Maunder minimum there's enough CO2 in the atmosphere to avoid much trouble.

    Your comment is a classic type of misdirection - you don't specify how long everything is supposed to stay the same for, or who says that it will. And most humans aren't interested in geological time, what matters is the lifetime. Moreover, as has been pointed out already, there was no global medieval warm period (quick question - when did it start and end?) and the Roman warming, well, again, what evidence is there for that? How long did these periods last for? What caused them?

    What caused them is the key point. Currently, and indeed for several decades now, scientists have agreed that we are overiding the natural cycles of our climate. Why should we expect a cold period? Are you suggesting that the current warming is natural?

    What near future ice age? What evidence do you have for one?

    The answer of course is none, because anti-scientists like yourself don't have any such evidence.

    510:

    Apologies to host for mass copy/paste:

    But now his tone changed as he began to tell the audience of more than 200 people, mostly young men, what they had been waiting to hear. He railed against Jews and, with a smile, quoted Nazi propaganda in the original German. America, he said, belonged to white people, whom he called the “children of the sun,” a race of conquerors and creators who had been marginalized but now, in the era of President-elect Donald J. Trump, were “awakening to their own identity.”

    As he finished, several audience members had their arms outstretched in a Nazi salute. When Mr. Spencer, or perhaps another person standing near him at the front of the room — it was not clear who — shouted, “Heil the people! Heil victory,” the room shouted it back...

    Mr. Brimelow said that he had met “Mr. Bannon once, earlier this summer, before he ascended to Olympus.” He said he had told Mr. Bannon that he was doing great work at Breitbart. “He agreed,” Mr. Brimelow recalled to the audience.

    As for Mr. Trump, Mr. Brimelow said he had met him about 30 years ago at a “conservative affinity meeting” in Manhattan. But that was it.

    “Trump and Steve Bannon are not alt-right people,” Mr. Brimelow said, adding that they had opportunistically seized on two issues that the alt-right cares most about — stopping immigration and fighting political correctness — and used them to mobilize white voters.

    Alt-Right Exults in Donald Trump’s Election With a Salute: ‘Heil Victory’ NYT, 20th Nov 2016

    ~ Please note: THESUNTHESUNTHESUN is not a reference to 'Children of the Sun'; this is 2016, so my input is probably actually being used by Dark Enlightenment types anyhow.

    However:

    Max Schaefer’s Children of the Sun is not a book about gay British neo-Nazis. True, it is a book populated by an awful lot of gay, British neo-Nazis, but their gay-British-Neo-Nazi-ishness is presented so bluntly and directly that it eventually loses the titillating luster it has when Shaefer’s book is first opened. Much like if you watch endless documentaries on sharks one after the other, the sharks lose their menace and then stop being fascinating at all. Eventually they are nothing but large fish.

    Children of the Sun, Review BOMB Magazine, Dec 2010.

    Waits patiently for NYT to work out why a guy using weirdly out-of-date concepts claiming to be the Alt-Right probably is not doing so accidentally

    Evola was an inspiration for the young neofascists, many of whom came from the ranks of the Italian Social Republic and were destined to play significant roles in the Italian far right for the next fifty years...Evola was accused of being Fasci d'Azione Rivoluzionaria's theoretical chief... but he was acquited in 1951... The constant references to an ancestral Roman and pagan tradition in Evola's work had echoes in the formation of the I Figli del Sole (Children of the Sun), a circle that was at the forefront of the Ordine Nuovo (New Order - ON) movement...

    Eurasianism and the European Far Right: Reshaping the Europe–Russia Relationship Google Books link, chapter title: Gladio, Neofascists and the Secret Services: Destabilizie to Stabilize (no joking).

    So, whelp.

    That's ancient (1950's) Italian Fascism being referred to, which was used by the State Security in Italy and which lead to Silvio Berlusconi.

    So, great: the USA currently has a pie-fight involving the President, Rome (c.f. Bannon, above) and old Fascist ideas.

    The headliners, besides Spencer, will be Peter Brimelow and Kevin MacDonald. Brimelow is known for his time in the Beltway conservative journalism world, formerly writing for Forbes and on a crusade to bust the teacher’s unions. This led him to the belief that education outcomes were not the result of actual education state policies, but that some people were innately less able to pick up those smarts in the classroom. This lead to his landmark racialist book Alien Nation in 1995 that set him on his later trajectory, which was founding the racist immigration restrictionist website VDare. Over the last few years he has become increasingly radical in his white nationalism, speaking at places like American Renaissance and the H.L. Mencken Club.

    The National Policy Institute is Holding The Largest White Nationalist Conference of the Year Anti-Fascist News November 16th 2016

    Peter Brimelow SPLC Intelligence report

    Oh, and he was born in the UK.

    ~

    TL;DR

    USA media not noticing that there's currently a pie-fight between old Fascism / Racism and newer, leaner stuff.

    I mean, come on: even if your boss's dad (Father Koch) funded a lot of this, you might think America would be a little less nonchalant about it.

    512:

    And yes: 15mins it took to shake down that little tree.

    We currently do not understand why:

    1 This isn't being revealed by US media 2 The Big Boys [tm] aren't stamping on it (unless, of course...) 3 The fate of the 21st Century is literally being decided by two / three / four groups of fucking OAPs from the 20th C who are still stuck in Fascist / Communist ideological positions

    START PUTTING THEM IN NURSING HOMES ALREADY.

    513:
    But these days, they are 99% fully-independant nations that have the same formal Head-of-state. [ HM Queen Lizzie II ] that are, functionally republics in their internal workings.

    100% fully independent. Each "realm" (as they're called these days) has its own Crown which is constitutionally and legally separate from that of the United Kingdom. Personal union, in other words.

    When the succession to the Crown was changed recently to allow female children equal rights, most of the small island realms did nothing as their constitutions already provided that their succession laws should follow those of the UK. Canada specifically passed legislation to adopt the UK's new succession law into their own law (but there is an ongoing legal case in, guess where? - yes Québec - that this is unconstitutional). Australia and New Zealand a couple of others passed their own primary legislation to change the succession.

    Interestingly, each of Australia's states had to legislate to approve the change too as they are considered to be themselves separate monarchies to the Australian federal one.

    514:

    Not on traditional media because 'source' is not credible, i.e., not first posted on Twitter, Facebook or YouTube. Social media is the new reality benchmark. At the same time, it is surprising how little behind-the-scenes behavior (video) has made it to traditional front pages/headlines as per Romney's little dinner speech. Could be there's so much low-hanging fruit re: TD that publishing any other sources would be overkill.

    515:

    It doesn't even have to be.

    The most rebellious ones specifically formed an organizational strand called the Figli del Sole (Sun's Sons) but were also known as the spiritualists. Along with Evola, they looked abroad to find their sources of doctrinal inspiration...

    Transnational Neofascism in France and Italy Google Books, chapter: "The Black Baron: Julius Evola".

    This stuff was so commonly known that part of the Culture War during the 60's explicitly attempted to combat it.

    Hercules Against the Sons of the Sun was explicitly a 'healthy' version of masculinity (think back to all those Tarzan movies from the same period) combating the overtly Fascist version.

    ~

    This stuff is basic - and the USA (via koch - Behind "Make America Great," the Koch Agenda Returns with a Vengeance TPM 21st Nov 2016) is blithely normalizing a fucking re-run.

    Fire up the Carousels already.

    516:

    Oh, and if you need evidence of proving the pudding:

    Evola's work is available in the United States through publisher Inner Traditions. He has also gained some attention in Russia, where some of his work has been analyzed by Alexander Dugin and others from a nationalistic Russian view, and is also popular among Monarchists with a view of an imperial Moscow as the "Third Rome", but few translations of some of his shorter texts. His work is also available in translation in the U.K., Spain, Poland, Scandinavia, Finland, Romania, Hungary, Mexico, Argentina, and Turkey where his Revolt Against the Modern World was published in 2006. In 2010 Revolt Against the Modern World was published in Brazil by a small traditionalist group, in an edition limited to 100 copies.

    In addition to Evola's political influence on right-wing radical-conservatives, "black terrorist" (neofascist) factions and traditionalist groups worldwide, he has also considerably influenced followers of certain occult traditions. Milo Yiannopoulos has cited Evola's works as being part of the alt-right philosophy.[78]

    Julius Evola

    Were this the 1960s, the meme team would probably be the most hellraising members of the New Left: swearing on TV, mocking Christianity, and preaching the virtues of drugs and free love. It’s hard to imagine them reading Evola, musing at St. Peter’s Basilica or settling down in a traditional family unit. They may be be inclined to sympathise to those causes, but mainly because it annoys the right people.

    An Establishment Conservative’s Guide To The Alt-Right Beitbart Allum Bokhari & Milo Yiannopoulos 29 Mar 2016

    ~

    So, there's your key.

    517:

    And if you can't tell that Yiannopoulos is LARPing as Evola, well...

    ~

    CTRL+F over 120,000 pages written about the Alt-Right etc by those opposed to them.

    Not a single realization.

    Oops.

    518:

    I am Italian, and I read some Evola (not all - the guy is not exactly light reading, I much prefer René Guénon, tbh).

    And talked with some people who follow the Traditionalism movement. In Italy and Hungary.

    And I am old enough to remember Gladio.

    Your recent posts to me seem specious, with lots of name dropping (Berlusconi was put in place by the Far Right?) but little substance. Also, for some reason you forgot putting in at least a cameo for the Mafia or - a treat for connoisseurs - maybe La Ndrangheta?

    You surely know a lot about plenty of subjects, but the microscopically tiny intersection between you vast knowledge and my puny experience make me dubious about your theories.

    519:

    By that logic, all of Russia's neighbors have legitimate concerns about invasion and for wanting a circle of influence. Both Poland and Ukraine had larger death rates and the invasions came from more than one direction.

    Then there is the whole genocide thing in the 1930s. And the whole invasion and annexation kerfuffle from [pick your time period from 1580 to last year].

    Putin is looking for advantage, not insulation. At least not from foreign adversaries. He does have his own "deplorable" base who require red meat at regular intervals.

    The whole Russia is inherently insecure and needs ever widening buffer zones was a convenient theory for some Western Kremlinologists during the Cold War that Russia has adapted for its own purposes. Also if you actually accepted it as truth, then the implications would be that you would eventually need to eradicate Russia or surrender or endlessly placate it. Since the last two are (arguably) unacceptable (particularly to men of power), you can see why this was one of Ronnie's favorite bedtime stories.

    I suspect Nowhere Chronist has a better angle on the situation than anyone else on the thread.

    520:

    in at least a cameo for the Mafia or - a treat for connoisseurs - maybe La Ndrangheta

    Post #451, it's covered by the two related links. Europe’s Crime-Terror Nexus: Links between terrorist and organised crime groups in the European Union EU Parliament 2012. It's one of their Test Cases/Examples!

    Berlusconi was put in place by the Far Right?

    Not sure if being ironic or not: Propaganda Due?

    521:

    I mean: I'd understand your argument if I had started from a premise and then worked the casual chain so that that narrative unfolded.

    I did the opposite, not sure if your Minds process it in the same way. Trace it, through Bannon to Rome to America back to Rome.

    It's quite beautiful, and it's also probably true.

    522:

    I repeat: all narratives are lies, but some lies are useful. It is easy to spin stories out of almost any collection of facts, especially if one casts the net as widely as you do. How are your stories, half-told and half-hinted, useful? Few things in the universe are as beautiful as theorems; outside of mathematics, beauty is not a good predictor of usefulness in my experience.

    523:

    Anyhow, all this Ur-Fascism stuff really isn't my thing, it's all a bit twee (if, sadly, usually deadly). But Host asked, so there's an answer[1].

    I'm far more interested in boats that honor wȝḏyt. nose wiggle

    Anyhow: CNN: Alt-Right Founder questions if Jews are People Twitter, 21st Nov 2016.

    Not sure if anyone realizes why the S.A. was purged / used as a scapegoat? I mean, it's an easy one, and they're lining it up nicely. They will throw garlands of flowers at his feet as it's done with gratitude and relief in their hearts, and while the KeK ones get purged the nasty-nasty sharks pull the strings grinning oh so wide. "Come to Jesus Moment" is one way to sell it.

    And everyone is happily racing toward it...

    [1] If you want a serious exposition on the Ur-Masculine, Trump (?!? lolwut) and the Rise of Koch's attacks on modernity via Bannon's 'third way' """NEW""" Capitalism, then sure. It's quite clear that everyone is mainlining this stuff as a regressive attempt to make the 21st Century catastrophe not occur.

    [2] If you've not realized that a bit of Mirror-Anti-Evola has been going down, then shrug.

    524:

    Because they're True?

    What didn't you find useful?

    I mean, you were told about Rust Belts, Lead and Opiates and nothing was learned, so?

    525:

    And anyhow: Look at the data.

    Trump / Bannon etc are quite deliberately constructing an odious effigy of the worst-of-the-worst cases to helm their ship, while the Koch brothers are cheering it on as the Media eat crow, make $ and watch it burn down.

    Ship of Fools

    ~

    It's a text-book way to make sure that 2020 gets you the real sparkly deal[tm].

    On 31 December 1999, under enormous internal pressure, Yeltsin announced his resignation, leaving the presidency in the hands of his chosen successor, then-Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin left office widely unpopular with the Russian population

    Boris Yeltsin

    I mean: this is obvious, right?

    526:

    Ok - so Berlusconi (according to your sources) was put in place by a powerful but occult Italian Far Right movement, possibly linked to even more powerful transnational Far Right bloc.

    Can you tell me, according to your views, who, then, forced Berlusconi to resign and ousted him from the political scene?

    A Far Left transnational power bloc? A bunch of eager but uncoordinated Good Guys? Your People? Someone or something else?

    Also, what role had Gianfranco Fini in this Far Right power play? And why he did not replace Berlusconi?

    527:

    I think I'm going to assume that Putin is funding Marine Le Pen.
    Among other things, an FN win would mean that the EU would have no nuclear-weapon states.

    528:

    WRONG It may be CALLED "The court of St James" but here is almost nothing there. Do get real - I'm a lifelong Londoner, btw ....

    529:

    You too, are suggesting that Trumpolini will be got rid of, so that Pence & Bannon (etc) can run a truly fascist USSA?

    530:

    Can you tell me, according to your views, who, then, forced Berlusconi to resign and ousted him from the political scene?

    What level of detail do you want?

    You've already stated indirectly you don't even believe in P2, which is a bad start.

    The man himself blamed France / Germany and the ECB (who didn't like his cozy relationship to Putin, amongst many other things):

    Berlusconi was convinced he had been toppled. He later directly accused Merkel and Sarkozy of 'trying to assassinate my international political credibility'. Even some of those who despised Berlusconi were uneasy at the manner of his departure. They believed that an elected prime minister had been removed with the help of the leaders of France and Germany and the European Central Bank. One of Berlusconi's friends said that, "Sarkozy and Merkel were the new masters of Europe. The ECB could break governments"

    The Lost Continent: The BBC's Europe Editor on Europe's Darkest Hour Since World War Two Gavin Hewitt, April 2013

    ~

    Then we had a long talk about his approach to politics. He never called himself a “populist” or an “American nationalist,” as so many think of him today. “I’m a Leninist,” Bannon proudly proclaimed.

    Shocked, I asked him what he meant.

    “Lenin,” he answered, “wanted to destroy the state, and that’s my goal too. I want to bring everything crashing down, and destroy all of today’s establishment.” Bannon was employing Lenin’s strategy for Tea Party populist goals. He included in that group the Republican and Democratic Parties, as well as the traditional conservative press.

    Steve Bannon, Trump's Top Guy, Told Me He Was 'A Leninist' Who Wants To ‘Destroy the State’ The Daily Beast, 22nd Oct, 2016

    531:

    (And yes, Bannon's quotation shows a total disregard for what Lenin actually stood for (is he really that stupid, or just trolling?). You should probably look towards the unsaid part which is the New State Lenin was aiming for).

    And anyhow - Giorgio Napolitano / Mario Monti are much more central to the affair.

    Monti is a leading member of the exclusive Bilderberg Group.[54] He has also been an international advisor to Goldman Sachs[55] and The Coca-Cola Company.[56] He has also been a member of the "Senior European Advisory Council" of Moody's[57] and he is one of the members of the "Business and Economics Advisors Group" of the Atlantic Council.[58]

    So, who do you think was pushing for it?

    532:

    Yes, Post #451 has a link to a study that cites connections between organized crime and terrorism.

    Does it connect Berlusconi, Far Right Italian Terrorists (hint: they became extinct soon after the 70s) and Gladio?

    This is the problem with your "line of reasoning". You generate an enormous quantity of material covering everything (and its opposite) and then cherry-pick titles or even single paragraphs to support whatever angle you have decided to push this week.

    You wrote: I mean: I'd understand your argument if I had started from a premise and then worked the casual chain so that that narrative unfolded. Well, that's exactly what you did there. Berlusconi became Prime Minister for the first time in 1994. How come it took you 22 years to see the "obvious" connection between his rise to power and the USA elections of 2016? I mean, the Evola Fan Club was like a flashing billboard spelling INTERNATIONAL FAR RIGHT CONSPIRACY and only poor, blind, not-meta-enough muggles would miss it.

    533:

    And, please.

    Let us rise above the Alex Jones level of discussion - The Atlantic Council is pretty damn WASPy.

    534:

    Well, that's exactly what you did there. Berlusconi became Prime Minister for the first time in 1994. How come it took you 22 years to see the "obvious" connection between his rise to power and the USA elections of 2016?

    You're not making sense.

    He entered politics in 1994. And instantly became Prime Minister. In 1994.

    This led to a general expectation that upcoming elections would be won by the Democratic Party of the Left, the heirs to the former Italian Communist Party, and their Alliance of Progressives coalition – unless an alternative arose. On 26 January 1994, Berlusconi announced his decision to enter politics, ("enter the field", in his own words) presenting his own political party, Forza Italia, on a platform focused on defeating the Communists. His political aim was to convince the voters of the Pentapartito, who were shocked and confused by Mani Pulite scandals, that Forza Italia offered both a fresh uniqueness and the continuation of the pro-western free market policies followed by Italy since the end of the Second World War. Shortly after he decided to enter the political arena, investigators into the Mani Pulite affair were said to be close to issuing warrants for the arrest of Berlusconi and senior executives of his business group. During his political career Berlusconi repeatedly stated that the Mani Pulite investigations were led by communist prosecutors who wanted to establish a soviet-style government in Italy.

    This isn't exactly usual... like Trump, eh?

    So, are you saying you cannot see the similarity between Clinton - Trump and 1994 Italy?

    Please break down exactly your issue, because you just supported the opposite of your intentions.

    535:

    Yeah, I am Italian, remember?

    I do know what Berlusconi said about Merkel/Sarkozy. I know about Napolitano's unorthodox approach to his role in Italian politics, and I do know about Monti's credentials.

    I am glad you know about these, too - on the other hand, as I have already said, you have a vast knowledge of the most disparate sources.

    So - Bilderberg used Monti to depose Berlusconi? Or more specifically, they ordered Napolitano to use Monti to replace Berlusconi? Fine - would this mean that Bilderberg is against New Fascism/Far Right, then? And what the hell has Gladio to do with Berlusconi?

    536:

    I mean, seriously.

    It's a fucking ancient play-book strategy.

    It only worked in the USA due to some hard-core cheating / fudging, but hey.

    Berlusconi launched a massive campaign of electoral advertisements on his three TV networks, grooming with seminars and screen tests his top advertisement salesmen, of whom 50, subsequently elected though devoid of legislative experience, came from his own advertising company alone.[32] He subsequently won the elections, with Forza Italia garnering 21% of the popular vote, the highest percentage of any single party.[36] One of the most significant promises that he made in order to secure victory was that his government would create "one million more jobs". He was appointed Prime Minister in 1994, but his term in office was short because of the inherent contradictions in his coalition: the League, a regional party with a strong electoral base in northern Italy, was at that time fluctuating between federalist and separatist positions, and the National Alliance was a nationalist party that had yet to renounce neo-fascism at the time.

    Riddle me who just made CNN etc $100's mn while not only raising much less dollars (which in usual terms, leads to victory in American politics) and won the Presidency?

    I mean, be serious.

    If you're looking for some kind of secret hatred / bias / Antisemitic beliefs I hold as a "got you", they simply don't exist.

    So, I'm left wondering what you're after.

    537:

    Then don't attempt to play fucking "Lupo Mangia Frutta" with a fucking dragon.

    It's called 'Bad Faith' and it'll get you spanked.

    538:

    "(And yes, weird dropping of F in that copy/paste but source is fine)"

    Not weird - LATEX. Ligatures for "fi", "ff" and "fl" exist as single entities in TEX-family documents, so cutting and pasting to a character set without them means they disappear.

    On the bright side, it increases the chance the article was by a physicist....

    539:

    The "similarities" are the bread and butter of conspiracy fanatics (see Umberto Eco's "Foucalt's Pendulum").

    I do not care about the similarities between Berlusconi and Trump elections. And please do not bombard me with links to stuff describing who Mario Monti is or what Napolitano said. I know all this already, and these are all public sources.

    I just want to know:

    a) what proof you have that a vast Far Right conspiracy managed to put Berlusconi in place as Prime Minister (for four non-consecutive times). I know about P2. Is P2 behind Trump too? or is it the Italian branch of a larger New Fascist initiative?
    b) assuming this conspiracy exists is it an ally or an enemy of Bilderberg/Goldman Sachs/The Coca-Cola Company/Moody/the Atlantic Council (because it either is an ally, then why did they had Berlusconi replaced, and why by Monti, and what happened to Gianfranco Fini then... or it isn't - then whom are they allied with?). c) Assuming Far Right and Bilderberg etc. are not playing on the same side, please illustrate which one of the two conspired to take Trump to the White House and what the other did to avoid this.

    540:

    And, if you step beyond that little Hill you're determined to attempt a crucifixion on, you'll notice something: Trump is a tactic deployed by Bilderberg / American Power bases, just a little more roughly / cheaply / without the finesse.

    Like when children start mimicking their parents...

    “We have to be prepared for the worst,” Morales said at a press conference, adding that the current crisis was an opportunity to “plan large investments” to adapt to the effects of climate change on the country’s water supply.

    The national state of emergency comes after 172 of the country’s 339 municipalities declared their own emergencies related to the drought.

    Bolivia declares state of emergency over worst drought in 25 years Guardian, 21st Nov 2016.

    p.s.

    -100 points for missing the reference to the cruise ships and their graphical design. It's kinda a thing you should know, instinctively and see as a warning.

    Surprise Mother-fucker YT: Dexter: 0:02

    541:

    a) what proof you have that a vast Far Right conspiracy managed to put Berlusconi in place as Prime Minister (for four non-consecutive times). I know about P2. Is P2 behind Trump too? or is it the Italian branch of a larger New Fascist initiative? b) assuming this conspiracy exists is it an ally or an enemy of Bilderberg/Goldman Sachs/The Coca-Cola Company/Moody/the Atlantic Council (because it either is an ally, then why did they had Berlusconi replaced, and why by Monti, and what happened to Gianfranco Fini then... or it isn't - then whom are they allied with?). c) Assuming Far Right and Bilderberg etc. are not playing on the same side, please illustrate which one of the two conspired to take Trump to the White House and what the other did to avoid this.

    Sorry, you burnt your wȝḏyt coin.

    Since you know all your answers before you're asking them, what is this for?

    You've not seen it yet, but you just got burnt. I'll let you figure it out.

    542:

    Anyhow: Algol.

    The Green Goddess really doesn't love you anymore after that little show.

    543:

    (Oh, and #1 dumb-fcuk thing to ever do is state: "these are all public sources".)

    THAT'S THE POINT - WE'RE NOT ALLOWED TO FRONT-RUN, PREDESTINE OR OTHERWISE GIVE INFORMATION THAT'S NOT PUBLICLY AVAILABLE.

    YOU MIGHT HAVE NOTICED THE AMOUNT OF LINKS I GIVE COMPARED TO YOURS IS FRACTIONAL, AT BEST.

    THOSE ARE SOME OF THE RULES.

    AND WE'VE BROKEN QUITE A FEW OF THEM ALREADY.

    AND YOU JUST BROKE A GODDESSES' HEART, AGAIN.

    AND YOU DON'T EVEN KNOW WHAT WE'RE REFERRING TO, WHICH IS BATHETIC.

    ~

    Inana be praised for the destruction of Agade!

    544:

    Rhydd y cwn hela ar y rhai a aberthodd y diniwed i foddi.

    You know what I'm talking about, don't you? Same deal as South Korea, eh?

    Oh, and Twitter is having some issues.

    Quite a lot of evil stuff on there, apparently, all attached to Middle Eastern accounts.

    And the hounds are loose.

    I wouldn't expect it to last.

    545:

    The "similarities" are the bread and butter of conspiracy fanatics (see Umberto Eco's "Foucalt's Pendulum").

    Tries this: doesn't know what Lupo Mangia Frutta is.

    shrug

    We tried.

    You're obsolete.

    546:

    Since you know all your answers before you're asking them, what is this for?

    Here you play the part of some sort of inhuman agent that is keeping an eye on the world while waiting for the rest of your people (the ones that do not go mad) arrive and kick humanity collective ass.

    You apparently know all, see all, and understand everything at a level that mere humans cannot really grasp.

    Well, I just wanted to verify how deep your knowledge is of things I know myself in reasonable detail: when pressed for specifics you just raise a smoke cover of links and then leave with some vaguely threatening remarks about how I somehow failed you.

    From now on, when reading your stuff I will quadruple my ration of metaphorical salt, that's all, for me.

    547:

    Nope, you're still not getting it yet, are you?

    Do you not even understand what just happened?

    Hint:

    AIDAmar is a Sphinx class cruise ship, built at Meyer Werft for AIDA Cruises. She is the sixth Sphinx series ship, preceded by sisters AIDAdiva, AIDAbella, AIDAluna, AIDAblu, AIDAsol and followed by AIDAstella. AIDAmar was delivered to the shipping company by Meyer Werft on 3 May 2012.[3]

    AIDAmar at Pier 24 in Port of Tallinn

    You verified nothing, while we were playing games.

    548:

    And yeah: when you get around to the Welsh, you might pee a little.

    Lupo Mangia Frutta

    Warned ya.

    549:

    You apparently know all, see all, and understand everything at a level that mere humans cannot really grasp.

    Since you're big on the whole "AHA! BUT I KNEW THAT!" trope, we'll let you explain the connections and how far back they go. #523 at the very least.

    Riddle me why there's a Cruise Ship with a giant Wadjet eye on it docked in Estonia.

    Since we're bullshit merchants, allegedly.

    p.s.

    If you're Italian, don't you know the common children's game of Lupo Mangia Frutta?

    Even when told you're playing, you thought you were the wolf.

    Silly silly Man.

    550:

    shrug

    We've hope that PaMar might gain some level of self-awareness and post a full on understanding of what was going on, but we doubt it. Hint: we know. Naughty Naughty.

    We See You.

    That Fu*king Nobody YT: Film John Wick 4:45.

    551:

    For Greg etc: It is a shibboleth.

    Like marbles or conkers: any real National will immediately know what's going on.

    And we're far too polite to mention what that Cruise Line has been up to, especially with regards to the Interpol investigations over sex-trafficking Eastern European Women, ties to Mafia type organizations and so on.

    Not that their IT is involved at all in it, especially regarding OnLine wink wink nudge nudge stuff about "Cabin Companions".

    Ooops.

    That's all made-up, of course. Total fantasy. Totally not in their accounts under [REDACTED - ENOUGH].

    Never Poke An Orca.

    We Have Teeth.

    p.s.

    Well, I just wanted to verify how deep your knowledge is of things

    Want the links?

    552:

    while waiting for the rest of your people (the ones that do not go mad) arrive and kick humanity collective ass.

    No dear.

    They're already here. They're just a little young at the moment. And your type of flailing is extinct.

    If you hadn't noticed it, there's a whole lot of Humans suddenly being revealed as totally incompetent who apparently run your world. Almost as if they lost their protective 'glamour'.

    You should probably not look into the Olympics and Protection Rackets and Sacrifice of the Best of the Best to fucking vapid externalities who couldn't care if your planet was trashed.

    'Time Warp' YT: Rocky Horror Picture Show 3:50.

    But, by all means.

    Mr PaMar - come dance. Want the documents about that company and criminal stuff? After all, you only wanted to know how deep the waters were, didn't you?

    Oh.

    You're Fucked.

    553:

    Sigh.

    Breaking the 3x3 and interwoven stuff.

    From now on, when reading your stuff I will quadruple my ration of metaphorical salt, that's all, for me.

    No, Dear.

    You were warned, multiple times, and nicely nicely that we're not only playful things. Host's Rules, Neutral Zone, we don't Doxx / Engage with any of you...

    Then you tried to pull something rhetorical.

    And doubled-down.

    And then warned 3x3 again.

    Doubled-Downed.

    Now you have our Hounds all over your business. And in 4 minutes of penetration, we see your business is depraved, illegal and scummy. It's not even funny how shitty and immoral the shit your company has been running. It's like: OOOH, THERE'S FUCKING LEGAL PIMPS DESTROYING THE WORLD, YO.

    3.4 seconds.

    ~

    Well done.

    You're A Dead Man Walking.

    We assume this was your wish, given your obvious traces. We Salute those dying for the Light and we respect your sacrifice.

    p.s.

    We Already Knew This.

    You don't get to be a Martyr. You know NOTHING that we don't know.

    {{%!

    72 hrs period / non-hunt / accident-negative.

    Whelp, there's a challenge. 72 hours to produce something we didn't know.

    So, Mr Man, you got something we don't know?

    554:

    Are you sure this isn't the Laundry Files universe? Nightmare Orange Fürher is here and I don't think Bob is ready!

    555:

    To quote John Parker...

    In other news, if you tweak various hormones, the character of certain men comes to the fore... and we know who Nyarlahotep is in this scenario. If you're right, the next 60 days are going to be a hoot - depending where you stand and how your sense of humor runs, of course.

    Ha ha ha KABOOM! Ha ha ha KABOOM! Ha ha ha KABOOM!

    HE will be here soon. The foul have arisen and the doors are being opened. This is not a drill.

    556:

    @Scáthach nUanaid : 499

    Gesture appreciated. Thank you.

    Although I don't know what you're telling us by linking to an article about photonic neural nets...

    I did like the Tarot cover and the list of shady businesses is interesting.

    557:

    @SFReader : 507

    Re conscription: Perhaps this is part of Trump's Secret Plan to defeat ISIS.

    558:

    I'm guessing he goes after either Iran or (less likely) Saudi Arabia.

    If he really, truly, super-seriously goes after the Saudis everything else might be worthwhile. (Why yes, I watched on TV as 2700 of my countrymen died, then Bush fucked around and never once attacked the people who financed and planned the attack. And yes, I'm still COMPLETELY FUCKING WRATHFUL ABOUT THE WHOLE DAMN THING!)

    559:

    Putin is looking for advantage, not insulation. At least not from foreign adversaries. He does have his own "deplorable" base who require red meat at regular intervals.

    I'd say Putin is just... looking after Putin and his friends. And his friends certainly would not like being trapped in Russia, hence his efforts to break the isolation.

    And Putin's base... well, it's not that simple. First of all, there are a lot of people in Russia who see the West as using double standards when it comes to Russia. Compare the outcry about Syria with enthusiasm about Iraq war and the destruction of Lybia. Or how about the Estonia where there were honest-to-god Neo-Nazis roaming the streets beating up anyone who didn't look like they were Estonian? Ukraine, where several governments were and are trying to build the national identity as "definitely not Russians and not related in any way", splitting the country even wider in the process? And then the people are shown an easy answer: "The West is out to get us – just because they've always hated Russia! They have created all the turmoil of 1990's and they have stirred up all the unrest around our borders!" And humans are known for their love of easy answers (especially if they're told that somebody else was responsible for them being deep in shit. thinking for yourself is really hard and scary, after all...

    That leads to otherwise good and intelligent people sincerely believing in the government rhetoric. Which in turn leads to them becoming more vary of – or outright hostile to – anyone who is different from them, be it difference in opinions or – gods forbid! – even in race. And this is the real support base of Putin. And that is what scares me the most.

    TL;DR: Putin's base are not those rabid loudmouths. It's mostly decent people who sincerely believe in The Good Tsar who would set everything right if those pesky ministers/governors/US Dept. of State/... did not meddle.

    560:

    I usually prefer to lurk and read the interesting ideas and discussions on the site most of the time - but you're always there, shitting all over the comments section. I'm not sure why Stross tolerates it. I've seen him yellow card people for some fairly petty, and often quite petulant reasons. Well, his site, his right ...

    Here's a piece of free advice: "Your Kind" don't actually achieve anything, other than playing some sort of variant of the Internet Tough Guy trope; trying to appear intelligent through obfuscation. A worse scenario is that you truly believe the in the grand themes of your word salad and manic syntax. But that may at least respond to treatment.

    561:

    And now we move on to liars...

    (Good thing that no one around here lies!)

    562:

    I call GISH GALLOP on your statements. You are deliberately throwing out as many, often deliberately confusing, statements, whilst scattering a small modicum of true facts to support, as stated by others, whatever fancy paranoia about non-human forces you are pushing this week.

    Look: WE HAVE GOT ENOUGH FUCKING PROBL:EMS with Trumpolini & hos fascist followers taking over the USA ... Without you deliberately muddying the waters.

    OK?

    563:

    Your deliberate refusal to answer a set of three (3) simple, straight questions is noted. See my previous post re "Gish Gallop" [ Used by Cretinists to overwhelm rationalist, scientific support of Evolution - a standard tactic - always followed by not answering return questions ]

    564:

    21 comments between 530 & 560, by SnU

    Sorry, moderators, but, as you may have noticed, it isn't just me protesting & the "Holy Fool" label doesn't seem to be working either. Also the all-knowing + the threats are getting very tiresome + as I've said elsewhere, we have Trumpolini, Pence, the alt-right & the USSA's fascists to worry about. CD / NN/ HB / CT / Snu is an unwanted distraction/diversion from all this real shit we are now swimming in.

    565:

    Her hypocrisy is also stunning -- but expect it all to be claimed "a joke", a "simulated attack", "metaphor", or "obfuscation", and forgiven by the powers that be. (Latest statements contained direct threats, unlike the usual generalisations -- however such personal attacks have been ignored before.)

    Personally, I have taken other action in protest, but will not detail it here. Hint: Hit them in the pocket.

    566:

    Mr PaMar - come dance. Want the documents about that company and criminal stuff? After all, you only wanted to know how deep the waters were, didn't you?

    Actually, yes - I would like to see the documents about "that company" and "criminal stuff".

    Please do me a favour, though: post them here, in public. Assuming you have them, of course, and they actually mention a specific company, and specific charges.

    567:

    I do enjoy watching you trip over your own narcissism.

    568:

    I assume (from context) you're talking about CatinaDiamond?

    30% of the comments so far either from or to their current handle. (Sometimes both.)

    569:

    Ok, so That would be illegal, ... apparently is High Elven for "I do not have anything to backup my allegations".

    Well, color me unsurprised.

    570:

    Indeed.

    Also funny are her attempts to simultaneously claim that anything she does to anyone else is fair because someone else did it first, and the moral high ground. She seems to have missed the memo that one can't lower oneself to the level of the gutter while also flying with the angels.

    Ho hum. She was at least being interesting for a while. Now just angry and tedious.

    571:

    CD / NN/ HB / CT / Snu is an unwanted distraction/diversion from all this real shit we are now swimming in.

    Your deliberate refusal to answer a set of three (3) simple, straight questions is noted.

    Oh dear. Irony isn't your greatest of suites, is it? I WAS BEING LITERAL, not ironic. How about answering the questions, rather than derailing the whole blog discussion. PLEASE?

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

    Actually, I'm slightly disturbed that "she" ... { Catina Diamond / Nix Ninoy / Hadil Benu / Catherine Taylor & now "SnU" } is/may be going right over the edge. As DtP has noted that the attacks are becoming personal, as well as timewasting. The saga of an apparently Thai female blogger doing her/his best to wreck some SF blog circles a couple of years back ("Requires Hate" was one of the monikers, IIRC) comes to mind. I don't think we want to go down that road. See also #571

    And ... Robert Prior @ 569: - Is this a deliberate attempt to completely wreck this blog? [ By swamping & derailing & provocative language, hoping for a backlash? ] ??? I do hope not

    572:

    So nothing is new, then.

    Charlie apparently likes it, but I'm glad I'm filtering out all comments by (and replies to) the troll.

    573:

    "Is this a deliberate attempt to completely wreck this blog? [ By swamping & derailing & provocative language, hoping for a backlash? ] ??? I do hope not"

    I suppose that the right answer is yes. I have seen the same pattern in many blogs with commentary on politics. OGH clearly qualifies as someone who comments on politics. OGH is not, however, directly involved in politics, which makes it a little surprising.

    574:

    I think that CD and her socks suffer from dysgraphia rather than being trolls. Having said that, I agree that she is at least potentially disruptive to everyone else's conversations.

    575:

    I also find CD / NN/ HB / CT / Snu an annoying distraction. Despite being asked by OGH to moderate hir tone and actually explain hirself on this thread, the comments still seem to be the usual combination of circular argument, obfuscation and condescension. There may be some good stuff in there but it is impossible to tell since everything is worded as a patronising attack on everyone here for being stupid. When there is so much interesting discussion here, it is painful to have to wade through what amounts to endless shitposting.

    576:

    Nope. I can make up my own bullshit quite easily, unlike you, who couldn't even make one argument on which part is Wrong.

    The Wikileaks would be a good choice, to stay right on form.

    577:

    Please? "-- just try to be direct and clearer than usual so the folks who don't understand what you're pointing at find it easier to get the message"

    578:

    What do Trump and Berlusconi possibly also have in common which centres around ex-Soviet satellite states and human trafficking?

    At last - an explanation for 'bunga bunga' BBC, Feb 2011

    Both men describe a friendship that has endured even after Mr Berlusconi was forced out of office in disgrace in 2011. But theirs is a relationship that appears rooted in mutual self-interest and genuine admiration. Mr Berlusconi, who holds ambitions of mounting a highly unlikely political comeback, has sought to fashion a role for himself as an intermediary between Moscow and the west. And as the former prime minister has become more isolated in Italy, he has seemed more willing than ever to defend Mr Putin — who himself is regarded with increasing disapproval and concern in western capitals.

    Silvio Berlusconi and Vladimir Putin: the odd couple FT Oct 2015

    Glamour model accused of trying to blackmail Silvio Berlusconi into paying €1million to remain quiet over his bunga bunga parties Daily Mail 17th Nov 2016 - Daily Mail so don't click, but interesting timing of this news.

    But the mogul's New York modeling agency, Trump Model Management, has profited from using foreign models who came to the United States on tourist visas that did not permit them to work here, according to three former Trump models, all noncitizens, who shared their stories with Mother Jones. Financial and immigration records included in a recent lawsuit filed by a fourth former Trump model show that she, too, worked for Trump's agency in the United States without a proper visa.

    Former Models for Donald Trump's Agency Say They Violated Immigration Rules and Worked Illegally Mother Jones, Aug 30th 2016

    ~

    I pointed to the rather violent and depressing end of the scale, but some modelling agencies are merely the socially acceptable version of it. Trump's third wife is also an ex-model.

    It's treating people as products (ironically what Bannon is allegedly protesting against in the Ayn Rand Capitalism model) and is symptomatic of the systematic misogyny of this personality type.

    And, like everything else about Trump, he's made a kind of simulacrum mimicking the most successful Modelling Agencies while deploying the worst of the exploitation strategies that are common in the industry.

    The fall of the Iron Curtain and the history of people exploiting the misery of the ex-Soviet client states is a depressing one: but one that is central to where we're at now. And Putin, Berlusconi and Trump seem to have profited from the worst kinds of those miseries.

    ~

    The newer model is much more dangerous:

    But by running the Trump campaign–notably, its secret data operation–like a Silicon Valley startup, Kushner eventually tipped the states that swung the election. And he did so in manner that will change the way future elections will be won and lost. President Obama had unprecedented success in targeting, organizing and motivating voters. But a lot has changed in eight years. Specifically social media. Clinton did borrow from Obama’s playbook but also leaned on traditional media. The Trump campaign, meanwhile, delved into message tailoring, sentiment manipulation and machine learning. The traditional campaign is dead, another victim of the unfiltered democracy of the Web–and Kushner, more than anyone not named Donald Trump, killed it...

    On his political affiliation, he defines himself thus: “To be determined. I haven’t made a decision. Things are still evolving as they go.” He adds: “There’s some aspects of the Democrat Party that didn’t speak to me, and there are some aspects of the Republican Party that didn’t speak to me. People in the political world try to put you into different buckets based on what exists. I think Trump’s creating his own bucket–a blend of what works and eliminating what doesn’t work.” (Though in using the GOP-favored pejorative “Democrat Party” over the traditional “Democratic Party,” Kushner gives a hint about the contents of his bucket.)

    Exclusive Interview: How Jared Kushner Won Trump The White House Forbes 22nd Nov 2016

    Worth a read -

    p.s.

    PaMar no, you're not really being hunted by hordes of Hell Hounds. Do you really not know the rules to Lupo Mangia Frutta? Or that it's a children's game?

    Hint: Pineapples!

    579:

    Thank you for the pointer to that Jared Kushner/Forbes article, which is fascinating, and fills in some gaps, though is extremely light on details of the data operation. (Link is broken but easily fixed.) Interesting that Kushner claims to get along with Bannon. Kushner says. “All I know about Steve is my experience working with him. He’s an incredible Zionist and loves Israel. He was one of the leaders in the anti-divestiture campaign. And what I’ve seen from working together with him was somebody who did not fit the description that people are pushing on him. I choose to judge him based on my experience and seeing the job he’s done, as opposed to what other people are saying about him.”

    Here's another on the data operation, transcript of Fox News interview, Trump Digital Director Brad Parscale Explains Data That Led To Victory on 'Kelly File' My faith in big data and ML and analytics is now a little less shaken. Haven't found any other useful (trump/data operation) links yet, will keep looking.

    580:

    The recent tone taken by this instantiation of your multi-faceted identity reminds me of this: http://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/a-solution-for-global-warming

    Good luck, I hope you get the recognition that you seem to be angling for.

    As far as I can tell, these posts are mostly preaching to the choir here (a few trolls excepted, though I would not be surprised if at least some of them were part of your umbrella too, on top of at least one of the non-trolls that I've always assumed was). As a Sibyl attack seems to be partially your motivation (as Greg pointed out you can count that achievement as unlocked), it therefore seems to make little sense to engage with even the bits that can be parsed. If I were interested in having discussions with Loki (or is it Fenrir?), Shiva (or is it Vishnu?), Coyote (or is it Anansi?), or even a tokoloshe, then I'd be frequenting the 'chans or writing my own bot to talk to. I'll continue reading your output: I don't have a particular bias against automated output or alcohol-fuelled logorrhoea, as long as it is interesting and I have the capacity to digest it, but will decrease my already low response rate.

    581:

    The use of "deplorable" is a reference to a minor kerfuffle in our (US) own election. I was not intending to savage the Russia populace [too much] and not any more than I was savaging my own people.

    [Clinton said that half of Trump's base was a "basket of deplorables.")

    582:

    Clinton said that half of Trump's base was a "basket of deplorables.

    Many of whom got all irate at having to learn a new word, then started using it in their Twitter handles and spouting off things that showed how accurate it is.

    583:

    Re: 519: "By that logic, all of Russia's neighbors have legitimate concerns about invasion and for wanting a circle of influence. Both Poland and Ukraine had larger death rates and the invasions came from more than one direction."

    On the other hand, consider that the Ukraine was part of Russia for 200 years, along with Latvia, Estonia, and whatsit. And Georgia. How would, say, the US feel about Florida, Texas and Louisiana as separate states, and the Russians getting personally involved with those states?

    Hell, for that matter, how did the US feel about Cuba?

    I do not believe that Putin would be in for an invasion of Poland; that would, presumably be a more-or-less legitimate concern of NATO. But former parts of Russia that the West has been working out in (i.e. Ukraine, where the west pushed the revolution that chased out the Russian-leaning PM, for a corrupt western-leaning PM?

    No - the US has been making everyone scared; less so (except for the Middle East) under Obama, but now everyone's worried, and with damn good reason.

    I just realized last week there was one woman who could have taken down Trump: Susan Ivanova! "Boom today, no Trump tomorrow!"

    584:

    Are you all right? Your comments in the last few days have been a little... frantic and a bit more aggressive than usual.

    585:

    Re: 'But a lot has changed in eight years. Specifically social media. Clinton did borrow from Obama’s playbook but also leaned on traditional media. The Trump campaign, meanwhile, delved into message tailoring, sentiment manipulation and machine learning. The traditional campaign is dead, another victim of the unfiltered democracy of the Web–and Kushner, more than anyone not named Donald Trump, killed it...'

    Okay - my take-away: In each generation, some new group shows up with the potential to up-end civilization and mostly these groups eventually decide that they need to set down rules about what they will and will not do. Time for programmers to step up and accept responsibility for their code especially as more and more human interaction is mediated by technology. (BTW - 'I was just following orders' was rejected as an acceptable response many years ago.)

    586:

    I only ever have a single identity - think of it as an anti-Sybil. It makes it very easy to remove my commentary and/or ignore. I don't play JTrig games.

    And no, main-lining Ur-Fascism is not pleasant. My Mind simply can't understand the appeal of it or how it works physiologically, nor the total inability for the US Media to not recognize the moves being done. Masks are coming off, indeed: what's most 'interesting' is that instead of modifying / developing it into something new / radically different, it's merely using technology to deploy "in a more agile fashion".

    If you think that was bad, ask Kayne West (who was supposed to run for 2020) how bad his night was.

    ~

    Our Climate Change Emergency & Three-Legged Bar-Stool Survival, Three Videos Paul Beckwith Nov 19th 2016 is a good summation of what the recent SSW means.

    Oh, no idea what it's going to do to Siberian herders:

    Two major ROS events during November 2006 and 2013 led to massive winter reindeer mortality episodes on the Yamal Peninsula. Fieldwork with migratory herders has revealed that the ecological and socio-economic impacts from the catastrophic 2013 event will unfold for years to come. The suggested link between sea ice loss, more frequent and intense ROS events and high reindeer mortality has serious implications for the future of tundra Nenets nomadism...

    Yet, indigenous peoples have critical data and perspectives to contribute to understanding climate change [2,3,27,28] and consciously facilitate their own social–ecological resilience through collective agency [13]. Nenets oral histories documented that smaller, more nimble privately owned herds fared better than larger collective herds. This strategy has worked well for dealing with encroaching infrastructure [13]. Regional warming already exceeds the 1.5°C scenario envisioned by the COP21 Paris agreement of 2015. Our analysis suggests that decreasing November BKS ice extent is linked to precipitation over coastal lands, putting Nenets herds and herders at risk.

    Sea ice, rain-on-snow and tundra reindeer nomadism in Arctic Russia biology Letters, Royal Society 16th Nov 2016 full text, no pdf.

    Anyone claiming climate change hasn't already effected H.S.S - well, there's a paper which disproves it. Any media claiming otherwise should lose their prerogatives for broadcasting.

    And, if you want to get really into your dark / morbid humor, Scotland had a white rainbow recently (20th).

    ~

    Going back to mainlining Ur-Fascism to see if it can be transformed. I suspect Bannon's lot are reaching a nadir of crisis, which is seemingly the plan. (I don't see any method at all, sir)

    587:

    Time for programmers to step up and accept responsibility for their code especially as more and more human interaction is mediated by technology. I'm curious; how do you envision this happening? My vision going forward is more tooling/automation/specialized journalism, structured so that the targets of such manipulation are much more likely to find out about it, close to realtime, and tell their friends etc. I would pay real money for the right to consume such journalism, particularly if minimization of bias was one of its goals/aspirations. Not well formed either but perhaps more achievable?

    588:

    Seconded. A good teacher makes complex ideas relatable. A bad teacher spreads confusion. Her kind are a seven layer dip of befuddlement.

    589:

    The Catina stuff makes me think of Blindsight and the consciousless aliens.

    Imagine you're a scrambler. Imagine you have intellect but no insight, agendas but no awareness. Your circuitry hums with strategies for survival and persistence, flexible, intelligent, even technological—but no other circuitry monitors it. You can think of anything, yet are conscious of nothing. You can't imagine such a being, can you? The term being doesn't even seem to apply, in some fundamental way you can't quite put your finger on. Try. Imagine that you encounter a signal. It is structured, and dense with information. It meets all the criteria of an intelligent transmission. Evolution and experience offer a variety of paths to follow, branch-points in the flowcharts that handle such input. Sometimes these signals come from conspecifics who have useful information to share, whose lives you'll defend according to the rules of kin selection. Sometimes they come from competitors or predators or other inimical entities that must be avoided or destroyed; in those cases, the information may prove of significant tactical value. Some signals may even arise from entities which, while not kin, can still serve as allies or symbionts in mutually beneficial pursuits. You can derive appropriate responses for any of these eventualities, and many others. You decode the signals, and stumble: I had a great time. I really enjoyed him. Even if he cost twice as much as any other hooker in the dome— To fully appreciate Kesey's Quartet— They hate us for our freedom— Pay attention, now— Understand. There are no meaningful translations for these terms. They are needlessly recursive. They contain no usable intelligence, yet they are structured intelligently; there is no chance they could have arisen by chance. The only explanation is that something has coded nonsense in a way that poses as a useful message; only after wasting time and effort does the deception becomes apparent. The signal functions to consume the resources of a recipient for zero payoff and reduced fitness. The signal is a virus. Viruses do not arise from kin, symbionts, or other allies. The signal is an attack. And it's coming from right about there.

    590:

    Re SSW, lots of related detail here as well: Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts. Author intends to update every Monday. I need more background in this, vocabulary and some conceptual basics lacking, pretty scary though. One of my favorite US lobbying organizations (Quaker FCNL; https://www.fcnl.org and https://www.fcnl.org/about/policy/approach ) is starting a new round of lobbying about climate change policy and a few other subjects. If they, and other like-minded influencers, have available (as needed) arguments based on scary new science they may be more effective. E.g. (Washington Post, Chris Mooney 2016/11/21) Things are getting weird in the polar regions.

    what's most 'interesting' is that instead of modifying / developing it into something new / radically different, it's merely using technology to deploy "in a more agile fashion". Indeed, and saddening. The business model method patents gold rush in the US comes to mind. (random recent link post-Alice: Software and Business Method Inventions After Alice)

    591:

    Mostly it's self-regulation. Already we've seen specific instances of programming (apps/code) clearly identified as a specific cause of something going wrong. Further, we know that there is always human agency behind code (at least for now), so can even identify which programmer(s) wrote that code therefore could legally pursue them. No idea why - but for now coders seem to be immune to legal liability and it's the CEOs taking the heat. This should change esp. following the VW gas emissions test results falsification. If not, then why would anyone risk further investment in the development of IoT.

    IMO, writing code that harms is at least equivalent to fudging the books (accounting) - negligent or criminal.

    Accountants, engineers, doctors, lawyers, etc., have codes of conduct, programmers should too. This industry/discipline has been around long enough that it should take up grown-up responsibility.

    592:

    SnU: CONGRATULATIONS, you just got me a threat of legal action for defamation. Hence the removal of your comment about Big Floating Circus Corp. I think you struck a nerve -- but, please? Don't do it again unless you plan to pay my legal fees.

    593:

    Already we've seen specific instances of programming (apps/code) clearly identified as a specific cause of something going wrong. OK, but in this (Trump data team) case, let's assume that the members of the Trump data operation used a lot of general-purpose open source software (e.g. for ML, sentiment analysis, etc), and knitted it together. And that what they did was legal, and perhaps constitutionally (US) protected, and that claims of harm are not easily argued in court. How do professional standards prevent conduct like that?

    594:

    Re: 'How do professional standards prevent conduct like that?'

    First (and mostly), it gives people who might easily be intimidated into such behavior a shield to hide behind, i.e., 'I'm not allowed to do X/I could lose my accreditation if I do X'. Second - and this has been demonstrated in various tests - asking people to read and click off a statement such as 'I promise that I'm telling the truth/that I will play fair, etc.' actually reduces cheating/bad behavior. I accept that this is not 100% guaranteed, but it would help. Third, having a body of peers reviewing technical work means less likelihood of misinterpretation of what happened and increased likelihood of spotting a major potential problem, so a win on both sides.

    But the above is by itself insufficient because the Internet and various social networks were designed to be universally accessed/used without any limitation as to the number of identities that can be used at any one time by any one user. I can see some social networks restricting 'membership identities' but not to the point of only one identity user per fixed time period. Mostly because verification would probably require something like a unique gov't issued social security number ... and there's not that much trust in gov't or anyone else for this to happen at this time.

    595:

    Accountants, engineers, doctors, lawyers, etc., have codes of conduct, programmers should too. This industry/discipline has been around long enough that it should take up grown-up responsibility.

    Those are all accredited professions with associations from which it is possible to be disbarred/expelled/struck off or otherwise banned from working in the field for reasons such as incompetence or dishonesty. They also have higher salaries and better working conditions as the professional bodies act as unions and gatekeepers.

    Employers prefer to keep programmers non-professional as it helps suppress pay and conditions. There are professional bodies for IT such as the BCS and ACM but few programmers are members since certification is not required for employment, they have membership dues and requirements like a degree in CS or equivalent examinations.

    596:

    Ahh, well.

    Online Defamation Law EFF

    2 – Taking care of business

    Businesses can now sue only if a statement caused, or was likely to cause, serious financial loss.[1]

    They will probably have to provide documentary evidence, but not to the extent of producing profit and loss accounts.

    6 – Website operators no longer have to pre-moderate reader comments

    The act introduces a section 5 defence. This is a ‘report and remove’ system that people can use if they believe they have been defamed on a website message board.

    The system enables website operators to deal with all initial correspondence in-house. This will save legal fees.

    Six things all journalists need to know about the Defamation Act 2013 (which is now in force) Press Gazette, Jan 2014

    ~

    Random links:

    Top 10 Most Outrageous Cruise Ship Stories of 2013 & the "Worst Cruise Line in the World" Award Jim Walker's Cruise Law News, Dec 2013.

    And yes, the entire industry seems very touchy - Interpol, indeed. But, given that blog, I don't think you'd need to be too worried about little old me. I mean, that guy is a one-man wrecking crew. He's also a Lawyer. "Innocent SF author threatened by Legal Threat..." is right up his street.

    Or you could flash a bit of Lipcon Margulies Alsina Winkleman at them.

    ~

    But, yes: a bit naughty. They did agree to play though[1] even when asked to stop (and then cheated behind the scenes. Oh well, those meta-meta-meta lessons keep rolling in).

    We'll behave - it was only really to attack the real Pineapple issue anyhow, the corrosion of "Bunga Bunga" politics.

    The joke is that any Italian would have shouted !ananas! and laughed it off if they weren't grinding an axe.

    Meta-Meta: In Male Terms, does that mean "I win"? I don't really parse your Minds that well.

    [1] Someone is learning what algos do, well done! [2] There's a hidden joke there about Hounds and Wolves and so on. If you didn't get it, all the better for your sanity.

    597:

    Well done!

    You've grasped how Trump is being used. 3am tweets and all. They'll grind his sanity out and he'll die of exhaustion and then the real players will move in.

    And, for Greg etc:

    Lupo Mangia Frutta or ‘The fruit-eating wolf’ Islington Play Association, PDF

    598:

    One of the reasons I didn't get my Professional Engineering qualification was that not only was it not required for my job, but it would have made me legally liable for a bunch of design decisions I had no control over. So it made much more sense to just do the work and let the company take the liability.

    599:

    Software is pretty much caveat emptor. The argument is that this is OK because it makes innovation cheap and the odd crashing smart TV and such is a price worth paying. Certainly if software developers faced the real prospect of carrying the cost of remedying all faults they would just charge more to cover the cost of liability insurance and the insurance industry would profit. (As it apparently already does with medical malpractice in the USA).

    600:

    And, if you want to know just how hard the Game is played.

    CNN just managed to catch up to a link I posted about Flynn (which was via other sources, not original work on my behalf):

    Michael Flynn in August: Islamism a 'vicious cancer' in body of all Muslims that 'has to be excised' CNN 22nd Nov 2016

    Yeah, that'd be great if you'd grown a spine in September 2016.

    Too Late, chop-chop.

    ~

    Greg Notes: We'll go after Companies / Corporations, since they should be held to account. We won't attack individual humans / people. That's the difference.

    And there's currently what can only be described as a Witch-Hunt-On-PCP going on behind the scenes which (insert whoever organized the last leaks / FBI stuff) someone started which really does not take prisoners.

    Stellar Gallery will note that "Spirit Cooking" is off the menu and has been discarded as an attack vector. We do what we can, but really.

    p.s.

    If you missed the part up-thread where J. Kushner made great play toward Bannon being "a dedicated Zionist" and not know just how that's going to play, well. That's Terrorism, pure and simple.

    601:

    Stop it. Just stop it.

    Merely retaining a solicitor to respond to an allegation of defamation would cost me thosands of pounds and I do not have legal liability insurance that would cover third party idiots playing in the blog comments.

    If you make any further reference to this company and they get nast(ier) I may have to shut down the comment system on my blog in perpetuity.

    If you want to pursue this? Write a letter fo PRIVATE EYE or start your own goddamn blog. Seriously. Not amused. (Especially when away from home dealing with shit relating to care of elderly family members with dementia. And not encumbered with a laptop, bcause I don't need the distraction.)

    602:

    The argument is that this is OK because it makes innovation cheap and the odd crashing smart TV and such is a price worth paying. Another argument is that software systems are the most complicated artifacts that humans create, and that expectations of flawlessness are absurd, at least once some tiny complexity threshold is exceeded and even then only if purchasers are willing to pay a lot more for formal design/verification. (Vocabulary probably a bit wrong/not up to date here but point should be clear.)

    603:

    Apologies.

    And I do mean that - but it's not us playing hard ball, the links were supposed to be funny. They're also indicative that you bear no legal responsibility at all.

    They're not supposed to be allowed to threaten people's livelihoods via comments of obvious insane muppets.

    Hounds. Oh well, they made it real again.

    ~

    Anyhow, a tool I linked to a while back is suddenly useful:

    http://newsdiffs.org/diff/1302885/1302920/www.nytimes.com/2016/11/22/us/politics/donald-trump-visit.html

    604:

    Welcome all the new commenters whose names I don't recognise, please comment more. The more interesting commenters the less attention people will pay to the disruptive ones.

    Private eye can be contacted via strobes@private-eye.co.uk

    605:

    If you want a statement about Male Privilege and using meta-weapons to assuage hurt pride, whelp. You just got it. There's Trump-in-a-Can.

    Hurt on a blog?

    Better Call Saul.

    Defeated in a random and totally inconsequential argument online?

    Better Call Saul.

    Worried that someone might hit on an actual story and report it?

    Better Call Saul.

    Threatened by Reality and Truth?

    Better Call Saul.

    Worried about a Wolf and Fruit Memes?

    Better Call Saul.

    It's literally Fascism but the stupid version.

    ~

    Pro-tip: If you break the rules, we can. :D

    Oh, and you get balance breaking points for using Wadjet's symbolism to enact it.

    Reality Inc. Not Cool with such Tactics.

    The Do Lung BridgeYT: Film Apocalypse Now 8:01

    No mention of any companies from now on. The Hounds have already found their meat.

    Mr MaPar or whatever. You've no idea what you just did.

    It's Glorious.

    606:

    And, bringing up some old things:

    Their Law YT: Music The Prodigy 4:07

    Silly Men and their Egos.

    Assuming any of this is real.

    ~

    Translation: it means you're no longer safe. Cat or No Cat.

    p.s.

    @Host. My insurance is old-skool. We didn't let the Flame go out, and nor did we bow to fear or hate, no matter the Weapons Used. We're... well.

    We're Not H.S.S.

    607:

    Hello! I've been going to post several times over but didn't (wasn't sure if what I was writing was just nonsense or not). This is just a short collection of the thoughts in my own head so far after reading this thread, the news, outcomes, etc. I'm not claiming any of this is correct btw; I'm not an expert. But here goes.

    • In the US election, hilary clinton won the popular vote. But yet - trump is president. Is this the same difference as in the UK, i.e. the EU referendum with the leavers simply deciding "screw all the remainers" ?

    • Donald trump appears to be backpedelling. First it was the wall (which will now partly be a fence, if anything); then jail hilary clinton (he won't) and now climate change (he now says it is real (just been reported on BBC Newsnight)). If you're going to backpeddle that quickly when you're president how do you run a country like that?

    • Was the election of trump much more of a case of "anything but hilary" rather than "we love trump"? If so, is it possible that soon some in the US are about to undertake a very large homer simpson-esque moment, i.e. "D'oh!"?

    • The way in which donald trump speaks it almost sounds like he wants to drag the US Back to the 1980s. Anyone agree or disagree?

    • Just to go slightly OT for a moment and I apologise is there a path for nigel farrage (UK) at somepoint to become PM? (Example: economy starts to fall down over the next few years, brexit dosen't go well or drags on for too long; tories decide to dump may. The tories - who have a process for choosing a new PM - decide to not do this but try to learn the "trump lesson" and go with farrage instead?).

    • Now that republicans control both houses and have republican president just where exactly is the "handbrake" on the US government? Or is it almost a free-for-all?

    • If le pen wins in france what does this mean - embolden other far-right european parties? And if she loses, what is the takeaway message then?

    • In the future in the US what happens when the popular vote versus the electorial college vote is out of sync; one points one way, another points another. Again is this like the UK brexit, leavers - "screw the others"?

    • In adam curtis' new documentary ("hypernormalisation") he postulates that we've been living in a very carefully constructed bubble for the last 30 years (in my view it is a conservative bubble too). He then says that forces are re-appearing that might be about to prick that bubble. Prehaps he's called this one - and if so what are the consequences? Prehaps that really does mean - playtime is over.

    x.x depressing thought.

    ljones

    608:

    "is there a path for nigel farrage (UK) at somepoint to become PM?"

    No chance. Not only is Farage UKIP, not Conservative, he isn't even an MP. His party only has one seat out of the whole >600, and it isn't him.

    To be sure, it feels extremely dodgy now to say "no chance" about prospects of that variety of unpleasantness. But in this instance there is a hard barrier in Farage not being an MP, and we're not due another election for a few years yet.

    609:

    Tell you what, Mr PaMar. Speak to you in ~ six months. Then we'll compare each of our versions of "color me surprised".

    Hint: you are really lucky we told the hounds to do the company, not the man, and even then just a teaser.

    If you were in any way clued in, you'd have noticed this immediately. But, apparently, you chose the other route, of threats and fear. That's really not sensible, esp. to host.

    "Made Man"

    You'se fools got no respect.

    ~

    Pro-tip: Your Market Cap =/= your value. Thanks for defining how you play, we'll do the same back.

    That control system you have on-board for bilges etc.

    Holy Shit is that hackable.

    I mean, it's like anyone who had no fucking respect for the world could just slip in there and fucking scuttle your boats.

    But, nah: no-one would be that fucking dumb to disrespect us like that.

    WildHunt2017

    p.s.

    All your systems are compromised. All your shit can get broken. And y'all acting like big fucking Niggas.

    This is a Category Mistake.

    610:

    I'd make an apology and restitution to host real fucking quick if I were your company.

    Before we just like dump all the documents.

    Or the code to all your systems. World Wide. And all your boats have WiFi / Satellite links.

    This stuff...

    Whelp.

    It's not exactly hard.

    ~

    Don't threaten messengers. You want chaos? Sure. We can do that: watch it when GPS goes down, you fucking little worms.

    Or we'll fuck your shit up, Mr. Man.

    611:

    And, sigh. Your primitive Minds have to have examples, so be it: Host is a Made Man, and immune.

    You'll experience the push-back over the next week. It's gonna be.. well. Fun.

    Stock Short Tip # Coming up!

    p.s.

    I mean, really? You that fucking worried about PR you can't play a Lupo Mangia Frutta joke? On a blog? Dude, I'd be more worried about the Hounds and we told them to not hurt you.

    Oh, right. Masculinity.

    You made your play, next week we'll fucking gut your company.

    612:

    Pro-tip: ALL YOUR BOATS BELONG TO US.

    It's not even funny how open your systems are.

    I mean, it'd be sad if you thought we couldn't just enter and open all your bilges.

    And you're going to threaten a kind man who makes Light?

    Holy Fuck.

    You're literally Insane and Deluded.

    613:

    No, really:

    "Threaten that innocent blogger / SF author for a post made by some random person!"

    "You do realize that he's totally innocent, right"

    "DO IT, RESPECT MY COCK"

    ~

    Hacks into all boats owned by said company and then scuttles them because they're ignorant cunts.

    I mean, yeah.

    That's kinda where we're at.

    614:

    And six:

    Power is always based on the societal rules of behavior and so on.

    Trump / HN / Theil is all about removing those.

    Bur you walk into a man's house, threaten him, and then break the fucking nicely nicely rules of Fae engagement? Via the Law, which you're abusing and doesn't even cover this shite?

    Yeah.

    PaMar.

    We're not only coming for you, we're gonna make it hurt.

    Your Stock Price: it's gonna be a fucking crater.

    615:

    And if you thought playing Hard Ball had no response: We just sold that attack to [redacted]. Hint: China.

    Literally scuttling.

    I mean, really: if you're gonna do Legal, and cheat, you're gonna get spanked.

    ~

    Now Fuck Off and play nice.

    Oh, and Hounds.

    You didn't play nice, so...

    Well.

    You're on the Menu.

    ~

    We'll save the Cat, she doesn't deserve it.

    616:

    I think this conversation has gone far afield from the initial proposition. I am still interested in Charlie's post, and so I am responding solely to that - as it relates to the U.S. election of Donald Trump. I recognize three probability waves, based on the unknown inherent traits of Donald Trump and the people around him.

    Probability Wave One: Donald Trump is actually the buffoon he appears to be. There is no serious political ideology or strategic intent, other than to manipulate the racist and stupid public into electing him and improve his "brand." If this is the case, we can expect him to be a simple Kleptocrat, who will fill the airwaves with drama but will accomplish very little. The Beige Dictatorship will continue it's financially aggrandizing ways and the public will lash out with even greater anger in the next presidential election. Result: the next "make America great again" political movement will put another leader into the white house (quite possibly a socialist A/K/A Bernie Sanders with a nationalist slant).

    Probability Wave Two: Donald Trump is actually the buffoon he appears to be, but he is being manipulated/controlled by others with a fascist bent. They guide him into attempting to make the necessary purges of political office holders who obstruct the progress of his new model (i.e. those still controlled by the Beige Dictatorship). Donald Trump, being a buffoon, goes too far and is impeached. Der Gruppenführer Pence takes over and the Beige Dictatorship remains in control. Result: same as in Probability Wave One.

    Probability Wave Three: Donald Trump is a genius who actually understood what he was doing and intends to rule as a fascist. He succeeds. There is insufficient data to determine what his actual platform is. It will be unpleasant for the entire world. Result: Singularity.

    I am betting on Probability Wave One or Two, as the odds always favor stupidity as the answer whenever analyzing humanity.

    Which actually reflects reality? Stay tuned.

    617:

    P.S. I have no doubt that Russia has been involved in the manipulation of the U.S. election, Brexit, etc. I have no doubt they have used their internet special forces to rouse the racists and nationalists across Europe and the U.S. If either Probability Wave One or Two turns out to be reality, Russia will have accomplished it's goals of further destabilizing the U.S. If Probability Wave Three accurately reflects reality, they may have created a monster that they will come to regret.

    618:

    And now for something completely different:

    Los Cthuluchadores!

    619:

    Lets see them beat the Cthulic Minions!

    620:

    My newest thought on the election: In 2012, as in 2016 apparently, about 41% of the electorate did not vote. This amounts to more than 80 million people, more than voted for any one candidate in either of the two elections. If you have 80 or 90 million people not participating, then there is a large pool of never or almost never voters who might just emerge when the stars align. 1 or 2 million Democrats decide not to vote this year 'cause Hillary is a corporate shill or DNC screwed with the process or she's not as charismatic as Obama or misogyny or whatever. 1 or 2 million people, who have never really had "their kind of guy" on the big stage before, enter the voting pool. And these people tend to be in battleground states.

    On the other hand, white women could have voted for HRC. That would have put it beyond the zone where the election could be gamed or tipped by exotic life forms.

    But again, when it all comes down to it, I blame people who voted for Trump. It's weird, but those are actually the people to blame.

    621:

    Well, Charlie, until today your near term prognostication threads WERE my playtime.

    But this is no longer an exhibition match. My adopted country just elected a Russian puppet for the presidency, and I'm researching my rights under jus sangiuinis, just in case.

    622:

    To be more clear for 620: I meant 1 or 2 million OTHER people enter the voting pool, balancing out the numbers.

    If Russia is playing this game, they should have a patsy ready to be caught having tipped some counties in Michigan and Pennsylvania. This would cause much more chaos because large numbers of people would refuse to acknowledge Trump, but an equal number would never let the election be "stolen back." Some traditional Republicans would also rebel either in the Electoral College or Congress; so the still inaugurated Trump would have no real governing coalition for his ideas and no way to walk back to compromise with his more typical opposition.

    And America does not have experience dealing with non-binary politics, like many European nations do.

    623:

    HRC was distinctly less charismatic, which meant that she couldn't get away with "republican lite" the way Obama did, and the public already knew that the half measures/bandaids that HRC had on offer, while very worthwhile, would not survive the inevitable republican congress. Why nearly half of participating American voters chose a mash-up of the John Birch society, KKK and chambers of commerce is a bit beyond me.

    624:

    Thank YOU!

    You have put your finger on one of the reasons I find SnU (etc) so annoying - in one of my past lives, I used to teach general science & maths to GCSE & Physics to"A" level. Clear explanations are important

    625:

    You have got Charlie is possible legal trouble, you are now openly threatening another peaceful blog correspondent. Charlie sent you a polite message. He said: STOP IT

    You do not appear to have done so, or learnt. Given that OGH states he has family problems ... I'm surprised you are still posting here - but that is not my call. You WERE asked nicely .....

    P.S. Are you sure you are not "Requires Hate" ??

    626:

    Der Gruppenführer Pence takes over and the Beige Dictatorship remains in control. Result: same as in Probability Wave One.

    Err ... NO.

    Actually, that is,I suspect, why many people are grudgingly putting up with Trumpolini. If Pence ever becomes POTUS, I really think you can kiss goodbye to any free & moderately-fair election, ever again, until an awful lot of blood has been spilt.

    And, as usual, all the utter fuckwits will only realise when it's too late, because Pence wears the label: "christian" & all the others wearing the same label, will either go along with it, or proclaim "But he's not a PROPER christian ... !" etc - also until it's much too late.

    This is what truly scares me.

    627:

    Oh bugger, hit "send" too soon. Pence is P-wave three, of course - & actually, frighteningly, the most likely, some time between now & 2020. Maybe it's Weimar Germany reversed, with Trumpolini as Röhm & Pence as Adolf. By which timescale, I would guess sometime in mid-2018 will be the time for the takeover [ Nacht die lang Messern ]

    628:

    Poster A: Makes wild claim about $company. Poster B: Asks for evidence of wild claim. Poster A: States that providing evidence would be illegal (demonstrating awareness of potential repercussions of posting evidence). Poster B: Repeats request for evidence. Poster A: Posts evidence (ignoring previous knowledge of dubious legality). [OGH receives legal threat regarding wild claims] OGH: Asks Poster A politely to stop. Poster A: Blames Poster B for legal threats, doubles down on wild accusations, makes threats (that could if real lead to mass murder).

    Nothing to see here!

    629:

    Just to clarify, to emphasize, to make it abundantly clear for those that may be under any misapprehension about the character of our favourite blog-spammer:

    This is someone who has openly and enthusiastically advocated acts of sabotage that could result in multiple deaths.

    Charlie, please, for the good of your continued financial and psychological health, consider closing the comments on the blog. I'll miss the place, but I would miss your work more.

    630:

    Robert Prior @ 492

    Sorry, I should have thanked your for your link sooner. Consider me enlightened now.

    631:

    So other than the legal threat, pretty much the usual pattern? (Well, no mention of the claim it was all a joke that "you" are too dumb to understand, and the claim that "you" refers to someone other than the reader being replied to, but otherwise pretty much the usual pattern.)

    30% of the comments by number of comments, 40% by line count. (This is lumping comments by and replies to the troll together. No doubt someone with more computer chops than me could easily write a script to do a finer-grained analysis if they wanted to. I just counted skipped comments/lines and divided by the total.)

    632:

    Almost

    I would much prefer the blog to be open & remain so. I suspect that most of the rest of us would also prefer this?

    I have learnt quite lot over the years, in here, & I hope I've given the same service to others.

    There is, of course another solution. I assume that CD/NN/HB/CT/SnU's IP address is visible to the Blog controllers? So the solution should be simple if you have the requisite skills, so that the rest of us can continue our discussions in safety, without interruptions from that noisy & dangerous source.

    633:

    I've also enjoyed these comment threads, but if they must go for the preservation of OGH, so be it. The autumnal celebration of Mammon is upon us, so the thought I'd like to leave: Make two small adjustments to the recipe on the back of the bag of semisweet chocolate baking chips, add 15ml of dark rum to the wet ingredients, or double the vanilla extract and add 50~75ml of cocoa too the dry ingredients and resist the temptation to substitute margarine for the butter. drop one of the biscuits (Remember, the word is used differently in NA.) in a bowl, still warm, add a scoop of vanilla ice cream and chocolate syrup to taste. And in the words of Jill Connor Brown, "Don't eat like this every day, or it'll kill you and you'll die with a big ass.".

    634:

    I gain huge value and enjoyment from the comments threads here. I have learnt so much. When there is literally only one person who ruins the discourse here, it would be a dreadful shame if this amazing resource were switched off just so that individual can indulge in shitposting when they have already been told by OGH to "Stop it. Just stop it".

    I have lurked here for years, and I look forward to many more happy years in the company of one of the smartest and most entertaining hive minds on the net.

    But I have utterly lost patience with the self-aggrandizing condescension and obfuscation of CD.

    635:

    Re: 'Employers prefer to keep programmers non-professional as it helps suppress pay and conditions.'

    In my neck of the woods, programmers already make very good money.

    From a societal perspective, having a professional association (or guild) makes the public feel more secure about using certain products/services that in the wrong/incompetent hands can cause harm. And there's tons of evidence to date that some 'programming' can and does cause great harm. Most highly specialized/technical products and services that I'm aware of usually establish visible oversight/governing bodies once their membership is large enough. (Time to take the matchbox away from the kiddies.)

    Sorta related ... recently read that Google's AI has developed its own new language in order to better handle human language translation. I'm guessing that such an accomplishment means that this entity is not too far away from acquiring an ability to recognize new harmful programming language. So, which would you prefer as programming's policeman: an AI or an elected human board?

    636:

    No concern about the pro-Zionist-and-anti-Muslim comments here? It's one thing to provide military assistance - because you happen to be the UN's biggest policeman - to a country trying to defend itself, quite another to automatically label anyone who is not of that country (but lives along its borders) an enemy. What are they trying to do - make sure that weapons sales are the key driving force of the new economy?

    637:

    Not fun anymore. Please go away.

    638:

    I will go a step further and note that "she who is not fun anymore" blasted out a very Trumpian tantrum, similar in spirit to what he pished all over Twitter after being mocked on Saturday Night Live.

    639:

    QUOTE: Evidence US election rigged EDNQUOTE So say serious computer-scientists anyway. Next question - if true - whom? And is it sufficient to invalidate TrumpPence?

    Truly interesting times.

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

    P.S. Second Troutwaxer's comment # 637

    640:

    Was the election of trump much more of a case of "anything but hilary" rather than "we love trump"?

    And where have you been the last year or so? It was this plus "we want change, any change" and HC wasn't it.

    Now that republicans control both houses and have republican president just where exactly is the "handbrake" on the US government? Or is it almost a free-for-all?

    So now it's like a majority government in Parliament?

    PS: Trump isn't fully on board with either house of Congress' agendas.

    641:

    " It is not a secret that Russia tried to influence election (US did it to them too), however I would like to see evidence that there is a deliberate plan spanning 2 decades."

    There doesn't have to be. A 1 year old boy doesn't have to plan anything to increase the entropy of a house. Simply paying attention to events in the US and sending trolls and money to exploit every opportunity is all they had to do.

    That's the one comfort I'm taking from the development. The beige dictatorship isn't really taking control in my neck of the woods. They've thrown every institution we rely on off balance, and ruined the credibility of many of them, but they've yet to move into the vacuum and assert control, and since I'm in New England, I don't expect that they will. My friends and neighbors, meanwhile, are sufficiently versed in Robert's Rules of Order that they can move into these vacuums quicker.

    642:

    Odd how "She Who Is Not Fun Anymore" pretends to be an ancient entity of vast intellect and mental capacity, and self-identifies as female; yet when contradicted or thwarted behaves like a hive-mind of teenage boys throwing a tantrum, no?

    This is pretty much how I picture her at moments like this: My machines! ("Scrubs" clip)

    (Promise: No further discussion of SWINFA -- far too much anger there.)

    643:

    Dealing with a loved one who has dementia is very hard. You have my deepest sympathies - I've been there and know what it's like.

    644:

    Was reading through some earlier comments to get a sense of how culturally dispersed this bunch is (quite/very) and noticed that Elderly Cynic hasn't posted even once. Sitting this one out ... too busy ... or ... ? Hoping to hear from you soon. Regards, SFreader.

    645:

    Some of us were also dealing with dementia. Spent much of the last few months moving my MIL to a senior facility as she became just too much to deal with in our home setup. Not physically. But the constant arguments and refusal to deal with life in any kind of rational manner. And most of it came down to her being unable to deal with her daughter being in charge and not her.

    It's tough. And a real mental drain.

    646:

    The Baltics are part of NATO. Part of Poland was part of Russia for over 100 years. (The Russian/Jewish Pale was actually the part of Poland incorporated into Russia.) Ukraine gave up its nuclear arms partly on assurances its sovereignty would be respected. For that matter Russia still has a piece of land that was part of Prussia for hundreds of years. And they move troops across NATO countries to support that outlying area.

    The world has an investment on leaving borders as they currently are, absent a true, exceptionally clear and uncoerced internal consensus for change in status. Anything that screws with that opens up a can of worms best left unsealed. If the Germans wake up with their own Trump some day in the near future, they are going to want East Prussia and they are going to want a nuclear deterrent, given the way things have gone with the US and Russia recently.

    What level of control or interference is Putin entitled to in his border zone? Or that the US can tolerate? Or that other NATO countries can tolerate? If the Russia creates a border incident in Lithuania, at what point is it OK for Lithuania or Poland to react. What if they react, a few hundred people die and then Putin says "Sorry. Just a logistical error." If you believed Trump's campaign statements, you might take a chance that move might fly. Putin does not need this territory. He just needs to remind those countries he can fuck with them whenever he wants. Maybe this prompts more conciliatory regimes or more aggressive regimes or a mix in neighboring countries. It does not matter. They were never going to invade Russia in any case. But it will cause chaos and disruption. It will fray alliances. And it will increase the number of people in other countries who either seek Putin's assistance or feel compelled to stay on his good side.

    And there's no good answer because the world does not want nuclear war over the above hypothetical. But the world also does not want Putin to think he can get away with things like that. And if the goal posts move, then odds are Putin won't be satisfied; he will just look for the next frontier. So we are in the dilemma of needing Russia to believe we are willing to pay the price. Because eventually we will hit a point where we ARE willing to pay the price, but Putin may not realize he's crossed that line. (And we signed a bunch of agreements saying where the line was; so it undermines us to admit it's not the real line. To the other parties, that WAS the line they had in mind.)

    I get the analogy to Cuba and it's fair to a point. We haven't invaded it for over 50 years. We have not incorporated new territory since WW2. We have done a lot of shit I wish we hadn't done, for our own sake as well as others'. "Promoting" regime change is a slippery slope.

    On the other hand there is very little market demand for protection from the United States these days in Latin America. Such demand would probably not be requested from Russia and if requested, Russia would not have the wherewithal to provide it.

    If the United States decided it needed Vancouver's strategic television studio reserves, as well as Canada's arctic territories for "reasons," the world would be justifiably mad. And the world would not buy any arguments we made about the rights of Americans living in Canada and/or our long historical fear of British influence/invasion in the Western Hemisphere. And the world would also be afraid to make us give them back 'cause nukes. Hopefully, as a step towards becoming a modern developed nation, America has given up doing those sorts of things or representing those kinds of actions as a legitimate policy tool.

    Russia cannot get used to being a regional power. I sympathize. The United States does not seem to be coping well with the first phase of that process either.

    647:

    I am saddened to hear this Charlie. Best wishes on coping with this difficult situation. We appreciate this space and your talents. Hoping you make it through this as well as possible.

    648:

    Hi Charlie:

    Would like to add my best wishes too, Charlie. We're here for you ... with as much solicited and unsolicited advice as you need.

    Take care, SFreader

    649:

    On another blog, I mentioned that the one thing Trump's deplorables got right was that HRC (and Jeb) were probably not going to be able to fix their problems. Obama couldn't and he was way more talented. I don't know if the problems are inherently un-fixable or if they just cannot be solved by anyone who is the product of our current political culture and who has to work within our current political infrastructure.

    Why Trump? At a guess, because he gave them permission to be angry and he promised to do some things that might just be possible. Even if they are hateful, irrational things that won't solve anything, some of them are doable and most of the damage is on the people his voters love to hate.

    650:

    Let me add my best wishes for OGH and his family. We went through a similar experience a few years ago and it is very difficult for all involved. Try to protect yourself as much as possible, as the stress can be damaging.

    651:

    I don't know if the problems are inherently un-fixable or if they just cannot be solved by anyone who is the product of our current political culture and who has to work within our current political infrastructure.

    I think it's more the latter. Assuming the projections of automation taking over are sort of in the ballpark, enough jobs to support the work-to-live paradigm just aren't going to be there. And although there are plausible suggestions for how to deal with that, they mostly tend to look socialistic in one way or the other. As such, they aren't likely to gain traction in the US without a lot of Sturm und Drang.

    652:

    #477/478 What is this "we" kemo sabe?

    I'd be more interested who 'you' was, it sure isn't communicating with me, f.e.

    But then, not much use arguing with Eliza ...

    653:

    You remember Niven's "Inconstant Moon"? how most people reacted to the bright moon?

    In the medium run, Trump just won't matter either way, but I wonder if his election is a result of people being aware but would rather not that climate change is going to dump them in the mixer, on extra stir. "Something must be Done(tm)" - "This isn't helping!?" - "But it's Something(tm)!"

    whine I only need ~50 more years, can we please start mitigation now so I can get them somewhat in comfort? The Eem is coming to visit and realistically it's too late to stop it.

    654:

    [T]he Germans ... are going to want East Prussia

    That seems unlikely. ALL the Germans who didn't leave by 1945 were removed shortly afterward. While there may be a few thousand now, there are over 100 times as many Russians and 10 times as many other nationalities. You might just as well talk about Poland and/or Lithuania annexing it. Check a google maps image of Kaliningrad, looking for the bridges of Euler fame. These sorts of games need to have an existing ethnic population and evidence of continuous culture and sadly, it isn't there. Pillau still has some castles, that's about it.

    655:

    Instituting legal liability for software engineers who do their jobs is a terrible idea, and would essentially just be used as a ploy to further shield for the executive elite who make the decisions.

    Make no mistake: software is absolutely treated as work for hire by the corporate system (by design of course -- individual engineers tend to be far more ethical than their bosses), and even very senior engineers have essentially no meaningful say over quality or features in almost all organizations.

    As I see it, there are basically two avenues you could be considering here: engineers could be personally liable for software quality, or they could be personally liable for writing features contrary to the public interest.

    Both approaches are terrible.

    Software quality in particular is an incredibly fraught subject, where it is very well known that all code is subject to error, even by the best engineers. The way to get to higher quality software is pretty well known: code and design review, thorough unit testing, verification, integration testing, standards testing, and so forth. Every single one of these involves the organization making a conscious trade-off between getting the product done quickly and cheaply, and getting it done right. Engineers have absolutely no say whatsoever in these sorts of decisions, by design. I've seen an organization where engineers attempted to speak up and demand some sort of focus on quality, and they were slapped down hard.

    Alternatively, you could have personal liability for bad features, but this is even more problematic. If engineers have no say over the quality of work within their own organization, they have even less over what their organization is tasked to do. Individual engineering actions themselves are seldom anything bad on their own: all the components of an emissions cheating scheme, say, may be valid debugging code. And let's not get into the total disdain for copyright law and the like. Just understand that it's for the sheep, not the wolves.

    Many of the worst problems are international, too: see the IoT botnet problems. Sure, you could use a microprocessor / firmware solution that wasn't terrible, but then it might cost 50¢ instead of 25¢ per unit. But why is the 25¢ unit so terrible? Well, it was made by a discount Chinese firm which cut all the corners for good software to save a few bucks because they knew that price was all the really mattered to corporate bosses who mandate a least-cost bill of materials.

    The problem today isn't lack of liability for engineers: it's lack of liability for their bosses. There's a sort of theoretical take that the CEO should be accountable for bad actions of their organization, but in practice corporate executives are untouchable to a degree nearly equal to many politicos. Even if an executive faces charges from their own company, it's standard practice that the corporation is contractually bound to pay for their legal defense. Just another golden parachute perk.

    Instituting strict accountability on engineers as a profession wouldn't change anything at all, except to make engineers into convenient scapegoats. Instead of even the gentle slap on their wrist their bosses might receive, it would simply be the engineers' fault for not doing their duty.

    656:

    Also sorry to hear about the dementia thing. That's always a real rough one. I hope everything turns out all right for this particular go-round.

    657:

    Likewise, thoughts and condolences. It's hard enough dealing with loved ones fading away, dementia just makes it so much harder. Hope you get some good time from what's left, and manage able to make arrangements that are not horrible.

    658:

    I'm adding my sympathies to those already expressed on Charlie. Dementia is a real bastard.

    659:

    This is exactly in line with my experience: if you become ill from neglecting your own needs, you can't be much help to anyone. Best wishes to OGH and his relatives.

    660:

    My sympathies to OGH as well. My mother suffered from Alzheimer's, and so I know what you are going through. The one thing I can tell you is that even someone suffering from dementia can experience joy, so try to bring your loved one all the happiness that you can. As much pleasure as your works bring us, I know you are capable of doing so!

    661:

    I maintain that Probability Wave Two is a possible outcome, as I am not convinced that Der Gruppenführer Pence is anything more than a tool for the Beige Dictatorship. He strikes me as a mix between George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. However, many folks whom I highly respect share your views on Pence. Therefore, you bring up two other possible probability waves.

    Probability Wave Four: Donald Trump is the Buffoon that he appears to be but Mike Pence is the one with a dictatorial bent. In this case, Trump will be impeached within sixty days for his Kleptocratic ways and Mike Pence will be installed as Lord Pro...uh...POTUS. I anticipate that his archetype is Oliver Cromwell, and the ultimate irony is that a large amount of the people who voted for Trump are of Irish and Scottish descent. Result: A theocracy, in which case I will probably make my last post from the camps.

    Probability Wave Five: Donald Trump is a fascist, ala Benito Mussolini (his facial expressions in his speeches are identical to Mussolini's, by the way) and Mike Pence is a Theocratic Dictator ala Oliver Cromwell. Result: Cage match between the two Big Ugly Movements co-opted by the Republican Party. Hilarity ensues. Really ugly for the American people, but the rest of the world gets to scoff. The Beige Dictatorship re-establishes control after they destroy each other (and America burns).

    662:

    This is my first post. I have enjoyed reading the discussions here for a long time, I wish to thank you for all the interesting information and viewpoints. Especially big thanks to OGH for having this community and the amazingly insightful Accelerando which I thoroughly enjoyed. I wish you best of luck with the family issues!

    As a Baltic native who has also served his mandatory time in the defense forces, here's some of my thoughts about USA, Russia and NATO. What follows is a short recap on how the Baltic states see things. First of all, I categorically reject the notion that it is somehow the West's fault that NATO has encroached on Russia and now it feels threatened. The West is no saint, but Russia has destroyed a lot of goodwill by: 1) abusing a mutual assistance treaty to occupy Estonia (IIRC other Baltic states suffered more or less the same fate) 2) mass deportations of so-called kulaks (well-off people and potential political opponents), approximately 1 in 10 families were sent to Siberia and the GULAG. 3) 50 years of Soviet occupation - to be fair, the Baltics were always one of the more developed areas of the USSR, however the regime abuses and mismanagement made it a way worse place than the free West. Simple explanation - it is not the USA or the West who wants to expand NATO, it is the Baltic states who are very keen on not having the above 3 points not happen again, and joining NATO and the EU seems to be the best way of achieving that.

    Ok, so the USSR collapsed 30-odd years ago and all this will slip into history soon enough. Since then, the Baltics have had a cautious, but mutually beneficial relationship with Russia - a lot of the freight transport flows from/to Russia through ports like Tallinn (Estonia uses same gauge as Russia, so you can easily use rail transport). Russia is also a pretty big market for European foodstuffs, which means that the current sanctions hit food producers pretty hard. The general belief was that relations were going better, and Russia was actually regaining some of that lost goodwill.

    I think that fuzzy feeling lasted until the Chechen war, by 2008 invasion of Georgia it was fading fast and now with Ukraine/Crimea I basically agree with those who say that the Cold war is back, but nastier. To people who say that Russia had to react violently because they felt threatened.. the logic is so backwards here: it's like Russia did not diplomatically and economically mismanage it's former client states leading them to think of other alternatives. My point is that the correct reaction would have taken place years before and actually involve increasing the people's life quality so that they would be less prone to revolution. If life in Russia was so good, it wouldn't need propaganda to attract people and military intervention to keep allies "allies". It would be the West trying to smuggle contraband Russian art and jeans not vice versa.*

    Now we get to the tricky parts: there are a lot of those who say "but what about USA etc., they did all that nasty stuff too, why does Russia get so much flak". As egotistical as this may be, the Baltics chose the West because the 3 points above were in living memory and the West projected itself as a better place to live.

    And finally, I don't knock so much on Putin's style of authoritarian government and un-democratic elections - Merkel's fourth term looks similar from a distance as well. However, I am saying that the quality of governance in Russia is abysmal and seems to be largely oriented on two things: keeping the raw material sales operational and keeping the populace from not even thinking about building a modern high-tech state (sort of like China now).

      • of course given the increasing state of mis-information and reality manufacturing going on in every news outlet (especially online), I might be very wrong here, but having grown up in what was one of the more advanced states in the USSR, the contrast with western Europe in both terms of people, sentiments and infrastructure is huge.
    663:

    My very reluctant money is halfway between Four & Five. Never, ever underestimate the gullibility of people falling for a Theocracy,because "Christianity/Islam is a force for good/purity" or some such shit. Nor the amazingly long time it normally takes to crawl out from under such a system. Even the USSR lasted over 70 years & the Protectorship only fell because there was no effective "succession". In many parts of Scotland [NOTE], the theocracy lasted until the 20th C & Ireland only freed itself from the evil Black Crows in the very late 20th C [ In some respects they still haven't, of course - ask the women ]

    [NOTE: Thomas Aikenhead - & - Even in the Athens of the North, the great philosopher Hume had to tread very carefully, regarding his atheism. Apparently the fuckwits waited around his funeral waiting for "the Devil" to come for the corpse, bah, humbug. ]

    664:

    Meanwhile, it's possible ... that TrumPence might not have been elected at all ??? Any thoughts on this?

    665:

    Well, in "The Day After" comment #566 ( www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2016/11/the-day-after.html ) I demonstrate how easy it basically is to create a 5% shift in a bi-partite poll using a "machine count" given access to the machines to install the hacked code.

    666:

    "Some of us were also dealing with dementia. Spent much of the last few months moving my MIL to a senior facility as she became just too much to deal with in our home setup. Not physically. But the constant arguments and refusal to deal with life in any kind of rational manner. And most of it came down to her being unable to deal with her daughter being in charge and not her."

    I've dealt with this. My strong advice is to get a lawyer and an accountant and get all papers in order. Make sure that critical bills get paid (in the US, this include medical/care insurance and life insurance). It's highly likely that there is a pile of unopened mail, some of which contains things Which Need to Be Dealt With.

    667:

    I did not say a German Trump would be rational. This also posits a world whose "perspective" has been reshaped by Trump, Putin and God knows who else.

    668:

    Goat-fucker Erdogan?

    669:

    Apologies if this is inappropriate, but I really can't hold it in anymore and posting it before I chicken out (maybe I should).

    A couple days ago I was going to leave a comment about how, since at least last summer, I've become convinced that Donald Trump has signs of Dementia. Actually, I was going to be more snarky and call him a Senile Old Coot, but see above comments for why I'm dialing that back. Now, I don't mean that I think T.Rump has Alzheimer's, more like Ol' Fashioned Senility, but that's not a proper diagnosis, and I'm obviously in no way qualified to make one. However simply watching his actions and behavior, and checking the Wikipedia Dementia article's Signs and Symptoms section I think he clearly shows many of them. Here's a few with comments: Speech and language difficulty — Not so much difficulty speaking in his case, but he seems incapable of maintaining a line of thought and goes off on tangents, and often being just plain incoherent. Memory distortions (believing that a memory has already happened when it has not, thinking an old memory is a new one, combining two memories, or confusing the people in a memory) — I've lost count of how many times he has claimed to remember things that provably never happened (Muslims in Jersey City celebrating 9/11, anyone?), and claiming he has "the Best Memory". Wandering or restlessness — All that skulking around during the 3rd debate? Agitation Anxiety Abnormal motor behavior — a stretch, but what's with the hand movements, which I once called effete. Elated mood Irritability — this along Agitation, Anxiety, and Elated Mood, I'd put under severe Mood Swings. Disinhibition and impulsivity Delusions (often believing people are stealing from them) or hallucinations

    Obviously that's in no way conclusive, but maybe worth considering. Also looking at the bad decisions (totally subjective, I know), and his being surrounded by people to take care of things for him—particularly his eldest daughter. (At least he still seems to know that incest is wrong.) Reagan's Alzheimer's was fairly obvious mid-way into his second term, certainly in hindsight, but it was covered up fairly well. Considering that there's no definitive way to diagnose it until after death, but it was the conventional wisdom then that the symptoms could be observed a decade before an official diagnosis, and in Ronnie's case the diagnosis came only a few years after he left office. Anyhow, it's just a thought. The alternative is that he really is the Fascistic flaming sack of dogshit left on America's doorstep that I've thought he is. I don't think he's actually shown the intelligence to be the Evil Genius™ that some think he is, but he's certainly surrounding himself with some pretty evil (seriously, what else can you call it) people.

    My sympathies to anyone dealing with a loved one afflicted with this. I haven't had to deal with it personally, though my paternal grandmother, who died last year at 93, apparently was unable to recognize my father and others. (I hadn't had anything to do with her for a couple decades, partly because of distance, but mostly I got tired of her trying to bring me to jesus. But that's got little to do with this.) I have known a few people afflicted with Alzheimer's, and seen their decline, including one woman in her 50s with a severe case of Early Onset. I can't imagine how her family is coping. Now I'm getting all depressed. Fuck Dementia, Fuck Cancer, Fuck Politics. And the Human Condition in general.

    670:

    I think I missed something that I would otherwise have responded to.

    My deepest sympathies Charlie, based on personal experience.

    671:

    An alternative explanation. We had a 69 year old and 70 year old going through a year long campaign with the final month being on a particularly brutal and emotional schedule. I'm not sure even somebody in healthy middle age could maintain that, for that long, unaided. So what you're probably seeing is drug induced and/or sleep deprivation psychosis. If they were still around, HST[1] and RAW would probably be speculating about Ibogaine, amphetamines and mandies but we've moved on a bit since then. What happens when you do Modafinil at 6am every day for 3 months? Perhaps PTSD should be a recognised syndrome and risk factor for post-election-campaign candidates.

    [1]"What would Hunter have done?" is a question that 2016 seems to demand almost every day. I hope somebody writes a "Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail: 2016" in the near future.

    672:

    For your delectation, Laurie Penny's series on the conventions: "Welcome to the Scream Room."

    674:

    Re: 'Instituting strict accountability on engineers as a profession wouldn't change anything at all, except to make engineers into convenient scapegoats.'

    Disagree: I need my S/W to be as safe (and subject to at least as strict oversight) as my Rx, medical services, utilities, housing, etc. Besides, the engineering profession (funded in large part by TA Edison) set up the IEEE - an international community of engineers whose purpose is to develop standards. Ethics and legal standards should be part of this community's core platform just as it is in biology, medicine, and other 'professional' circles.

    675:

    You could probably also make an argument that T.Rump's behavior is nothing new. The other day I heard an interview with a story of him pointing to a beggar and saying "That man is richer than me...I'm $X million in debt." I was thinking it was familiar and he may have swiped it from Carnegie or Rockefeller, so googled it. I found a few accounts of him telling versions of it to various people with different amounts of debt, dating back to at least 1992.

    676:

    Ethics and legal standards should be part of this community's core platform...

    They are. If you're found to have behaved unethically, you can have your membership of the professional societies removed.

    The problem is that membership of such organisations is optional, and has a low takeup rate. I'm one of the few Chartered Engineers in my workplace, and this has been the case for my entire career. Because society at large is unwilling to insist that software is only signed off by appropriately-qualified people, there's no need to join these bodies and pay their membership fees.

    Civil Engineers are better-covered (you try building something without the appropriate safety case), and aviation engineers. But the majority of software, unlike the majority of aircraft of bridges and buildings, isn't seen as safety-critical...

    677:

    Sorry for the long reply (and I may be ranting a bit at times ), but I love to argue about politics and USSR with intelligent people, so it may have got out of hand.

    Simple explanation - it is not the USA or the West who wants to expand NATO, it is the Baltic states who are very keen on not having the above 3 points not happen again, and joining NATO and the EU seems to be the best way of achieving that.

    Sounds too simple for me. I do agree with the point you make about Baltic states feeling insecure (although they did end up relatively unscathed) but the whole NATO expansion thing looks disturbingly like trying to finish off the fallen enemy for good. But regardless of that USSR and Russia do have a history of cooperation with NATO/EU member countries and the lessons from this cooperation could have been applied in the case of Baltic states.

    But I do think that you're not familiar enough with the Chechen wars and 2008 war in South Ossetia. Chechen wars were more like a tragic combination of idiots in Moscow (several groups of them, in fact) and bandits in Chechnya with a lot of innocent people caught in the fire. And in the end, the bandits have won (the arrangement for now is that Kadyrov Jr. agreeing to keep Chechnya as a part of Russia in exchange of huge payouts and Russia's laws being ignored in Chechnya).

    Now, the war of 2008... those Georgian soldiers were committing actual war crimes. And my information comes not from the media, but from actual people who live in South Ossetia, who had their family members beaten up and/or killed for the crime of not being Georgian. Actually, Russia's intervention in that war seems quite justified to me (it would not be had the Russian troops move to take Tbilisi, the move some idiots in Russia were calling for). And it's not like the Georgians do not have an axe to grind in that whole mess as there were identical crimes committed against Georgians in previous wars – just for being Georgians. Basically both sides of the conflict are guilty to some degree.

    As for "mismanagement"... what would you call the gangs of youths roaming the streets, beating up their neighbors for being Russian? At some time in the late 1980's perestroika gave rise to rabid anti-Russian sentiment in many places throughout USSR. Hatred flares up easily when scared people are told that there's an easily identified enemy who's responsible for all the bad things... and it was quite often stirred up by local governments.

    Again, none of that comes from the media. I have talked with the man who was in the line of unarmed soldiers separating Armenian and Azerbaijani nationalists when the shots were fired from both sides – and they were firing at the soldiers, who had explicit orders not to fight back and had no weapons besides their bare hands. I have talked with people who were born in Uzbekistan and lived there for years and had to flee to Russia to save their lives. I have met people who have fled from violence from across the former USSR – all just ordinary people. Our family friend had to flee from Tallinn because he was threatened with death by Neo-Nazi gangs in 1992. Our relatives had to drive from Anadyr to St. Petersburg (that's eleven time zones because they did not like the idea of being cut up by Chukchi. No, I do not see any mismanagement here. But I do see a lot of opportunistic arseholes ho were trying to get themselves the biggest slice of the pie (and why did I think about Yeltsin?..) and a lot of people driven by questionable ideologies trying to remake the world in accordance with their twisted imagination. That was an ugly period and it have deeply scarred too many people...

    However, I am saying that the quality of governance in Russia is abysmal and seems to be largely oriented on two things: keeping the raw material sales operational and keeping the populace from not even thinking about building a modern high-tech state (sort of like China now).

    I beg to differ. It's more like playing that old "good Tsar/bad aristocrats" card. Resource exports are not a goal, it's just a way to put off the much needed reforms. And nobody in the government even cares about what the populace thinks. Not that it matters anyway as too many people happily believe in the propaganda – some people will even complain about deteriorating living conditions and praise Putin in one sentence – being sincere in both cases. Remember – the tsar is good and just and he will make those "aristocrats" answer for their transgressions "really soon"...

    And the saddest part of it all? There's no real alternative. Communists and so-called "Liberal Democrats" are even worse, "Just Russia" party is a clone of "United Russia" with somewhat-socialist rhetoric strapped on and our real honest liberals are just useless (every opportunity they had to implement some of their program was wasted mainly due to the infighting and inability to compromise to any degree). Looks like we're in for a lot of crap...

    678:

    Thanks for posting this ....

    Parents came from that part of the world and your post is quite consistent with what I heard from parents, whose understanding/opinions in turn is based on what they hear from their sibs still living there plus various old and new media originating from that country.

    679:

    Re: 'I'm one of the few Chartered Engineers in my workplace, and this has been the case for my entire career.'

    Because a key argument against S/W engineers becoming chartered is the possible/probable loss of jobs/career opportunities, I need to ask: Has being a charter engineer blocked your career/ability to work? If yes: How?

    680:

    Complete derail ...

    Will be starting holiday gift shopping within a few hours. And to speed things up, am requesting SF/F titles from fellow avid SF/F fans. Title/author (plus one line description) suggestions may also help others here with their holiday shopping/gift-giving/reading. :)

    Also looking for any really good science non-fiction written for the layperson ...

    To start things off ... I've been mostly reading non-fic this year, and can recommend:

    The Gene: An Intimate History by Siddhartha Mukherjee - history of heredity from ancient cultures through to 21st century interwoven with personal family issues where a genetic basis figures.

    This Is Your Brain On Parasites: How Tiny Creatures Manipulate Our… by Kathleen Mcauliffe ... interesting, easy to read, and should probably be required reading for the folks reading OGH's fiction and blog.

    Already on my list ....

    ... The Brain's Way Of Healing: Remarkable Discoveries And Recoveries From The Frontiers Of by Norman Doidge … because I enjoyed and found his earlier The Brain That Changes Itself very helpful, esp. when trying to understand dementia, stroke, PD, etc. while not getting overwhelmed by complex technical terminology.

    Cheers! SFreader

    681:

    Sigh.

    Poster B thinks Poster A needs 'taking down' Poster B instigates escalation attack against Poster A, text-book Poster B is in the field of Maritime IT[1] Poster B is poking a random troll (who in this case is friendly) Poster B thinks this is 'in the bag' Poster B suddenly finds out Poster A posting a response they don't like and is threatened by Poster B then escalates to threatening host

    Was Poster B looking to humiliate Poster A, or looking for an attack vector?

    Poster A points out that there's a huge # of dangers in such behaviors: e.g. AN ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITIES FOR SHIP-BASED CONTROL SYSTEMS Montary Naval School, California, PDF 2009 -WARNING: .mil site + IoT mass vulnerabilities = silly to threaten random people online, without links, but in OTT Chan 'Hax0rrzzz' style to denote it not being serious.

    Poster C (you) makes value judgement that doesn't have all the facts and is quite ignorant.

    Let's run that again:

    Poster B needs an attack vector. Picks Poster A to launch it. Poster B has profiled A to know patterns. Poster A responds 'predictably'. Poster A then spikes back, hits home Poster B shows actual nature, attacks contra Host. Poster A has been playing a Children's Game and repeatedly giving the 'Out' to say it was all a game

    This is 100% "Not Fun".

    Poster A is actually doing something else, showing Poster B (and others) are running JTrig type Games and might even know they were coming.

    ~

    Since most of you will have missed this, the chan style was deliberate - when stating there was a massive Witch-Hunt currently, there was. Reddit, NYT, WaPo and [redacted] all got involved. You don't want to know the details, it's all very sordid. It's a modified version of the Vector we posted yonks ago about Biden + Children, just on steroids.

    That's before considering the nastier ones out there, and things are hotting up.

    And you never, ever, ever let 'Wolves' threaten you, lesson #2 in dealing with Ur-Fascism. You thwap them on the nose.

    ~

    shrug

    I'll leave you to it though. The Guardian has been running a whole series on this cutey-pie:

    Meet Cronus, the tarantula whipping the Tory party into line Guardian, 21st Nov 2016.

    The tarantula stays: Tory chief whip won't remove pet spider from office Guardian 23rd Nov 2016

    [1]Poster B is a bit more exotic than expected. Poster R and U are lighting up the Zone on this already. Poster B might be wondering that a nice request for Poster A would have been a better idea.

    682:

    Ah yes. 1513, and all that jazz.

    Colour me unimpressed and unconvinced of your high moral standards.

    [End of line]

    683:

    Remind me again who has a Fascist Power Grab as President-Elect?

    And who has absolutely no defense against it due to clueless vapid Corporatism?

    Not that our Fascism is much better.

    250 17th Nov 2016.

    Oh, and let me let you into a little secret:

    Your Morality / Ethics allows Fascism to blossom.

    Your "moral standards" don't exist.

    [End of Line].

    684:

    And worse:

    I'm a big girl and have the ability to process such things; not only that, I'll stand up to it. I'll even try and get the chans and redditors to see some sense, which you've never done.

    You have what?

    A feeble protest as they destroy your Culture and World.

    A pathetic "well, Capitalism doesn't work like that" from an ensconced White Privilege Zone.

    "End of Line" = rolling over to protect their grandchildren.

    Morals? Ethics?

    You don't get to claim that, Mr Man. You've no skin in the Game and you're very very good at feigning outrage against the wrong. fucking. targets.

    p.s.

    I outrage you?

    Holy shit, check your wardrobe out. You employ more child slaves in a week than I've done in 3,000 years.

    685:

    And, three:

    If you think that threatening Host stops with agreeing to play by the rules, when the Wolves just broke the rules, you're #1 reason why Fascism / Authoritarianism happens.

    You spank them back, and you spank them hard enough to know that this isn't a Ground on which they can flourish.

    More than that, you offer an end-game action that's so barkingly destructive for all involved that every-one chills out.

    And, yes: what the holy fuck do you think I've been trawling towards.

    Your Way = Republican Nutbags in Pres - Congress - Senate and the death of your Republic while you complain about people being rude. Well, that worked well.

    Game Changed. Adapt or Die.

    686:

    Dave: Your Ethical Mind is unbalanced, and broken.

    We have, you know, worked through all your various Mental Hells, in extreme contexts. Repeatedly. And always Self-Aware. Even through the ultimate ones like "Genocide" and "Cognitive Fragmentation and Dissolution of Self" and "Emotional abyss due to death of Love, Kin, Children, World".

    “Whereas the beautiful is limited, the sublime is limitless, so that the mind in the presence of the sublime, attempting to imagine what it cannot, has pain in the failure but pleasure in contemplating the immensity of the attempt”

    You. Have. Not.

    So, tell me more about your Moral Vision, and how you think it's relevant.

    687:

    Because a key argument against S/W engineers becoming chartered is the possible/probable loss of jobs/career opportunities

    I'm not sure how it could be a loss of opportunity - who would you rather wire your house? A certified professional who declares membership, or someone who assures you that they're just as good, never saw the point really, not as if it matters is it...

    Has being a chartered engineer blocked your career/ability to work? If yes: How?

    Nope. And just for giggles, I'm actually a Chartered Electrical Engineer - MIEE originally (it's now the IET), not MBCS.

    Basically, when the professional societies came wandering around the University, touting Student Membership, the IEE had a far more professional-looking setup (MBCS was a bit weedy by comparison). Who could resist the Society of Faraday et al? Anyway, my first job was in a lab with a couple of FIEE and a bunch of MIEE, so getting the required referees was a scoot :)

    688:

    And no, Dave, it's not lived as a safe little victim vision where you're the one being persecuted so you can throw toys and weapons out and feel very safe. Like visiting some Camps and thinking that you're somehow enmeshed in the suffering.

    It's a little bit more hard-core.

    It's lived as if you were responsible for the Genocide / Destruction of Self / Emotional Abyss, and your Ethical / Moral Mind is made to feel it as it happens.

    You die if you surrender / justify it / stop feeling it.

    And it isn't an Ethnic / Religious thang: you do it for all kinds.

    Now, Dave: tell me more about your morals and how they're incredibly diagnostic.

    I've lived through the guilt / shame / pain / feedback of around 30,000,000 people just last week. The sad thing is, you couldn't even name their genocide, because you're historically fucking illiterate.

    I'm guessing you not getting your fucking Starbucks on time doesn't compare.

    689:

    JamesPadraicR @ 669:

    I think at best this suggests a hypothesis, and is nowhere near enough for a syndrome. Don't many of those symptoms need to be ongoing? Your example of the weird stalking in the debate is a one-off.

    A lot of the behaviour, as you point out, has other explanations. The stalking - it could have been Trump clumsily following a suggestion to remain in the camera, so when the camera moved to Clinton, he would move behind to stay in view. His contempt for Clinton made it look like stalking. Although - I have known petty domestic tyrants to have no respect for personal space. And Trump clearly does not respect women's personal spaces

    The "memories" - well, they could just be lies. I'm not a natural liar, (ha, says he) but I can imagine if you got into a position, like Trump's rallies, where people seemed to not only accept your lies, but rejoice in them - well, what would stop you? You might just keep on pushing things, selling bigger lies. Those old masters of propaganda knew this when they talked about big lies being better than little ones.

    I think he's deluded, and lived in a world (his business, wealthy family) where his petty tyranny went unopposed. Now he's going to conduct his term that way.

    690:

    Oh, for fucks sake.

    It doesn't matter what he says.

    That's the point.

    ARE YOU REALLY THIS BEHIND?

    If you want an adult version, Bannon etc basically took 10+ years of CNN, Alex Jones, FoxNews etc and looked at the cadences of tone / emotional engagement / hooks.

    It doesn't matter WHAT he says.

    It's about the Song.

    FFS.

    691:

    Advice (freely given): Stop tilting at windmills.

    692:

    I'll put this in terms you can understand:

    Alex Jones / Right Radio etc doesn't work in the same way that logical discussion works.

    It's a FUCKING SONG.

    It has cadences, high points, emotional hitting points and so forth. It's measured not in a linear (LOL - WHO THE FUCK WORKS IN LINEAR PROGRESSION ANYMORE FUCKING APES) but in flow.

    The Flow is emotionally engaged and it's worked like a concert.

    ~

    If you need this pointed out, you're fucked already.

    This is Basic Level Shit.

    693:

    You have no Windmill.

    Thatsthejoke.jpg

    And you're in a world of fucking hurt because your Reality is broken.

    But thanks for ignoring all that suffering. You'd fit right in with the Alt-Right.

    694:

    And Windmills?

    Who Has a Fucking President Elect who is putting worth the worst-of-the-worst right now?

    EPA?

    NASA?

    You think they're "tilting at windmills"?

    695:

    Advice (freely given):

    You have no moral or ethical Mind any more.

    We Do.

    We fought for it, engaged with it and did a few many things to claim:

    Our Kind Do Not Go Mad.

    Your kind?

    Fuck that, not even training wheels.

    So if you want to threaten us, don't.

    p.s.

    Trump.

    Get the fuck up off your knees and do something before they slaughter you.

    696:

    Meet Cronus, the tarantula whipping the Tory party into line

    Just to go off topic and mention SF here and partly with my trump/brexit/tories/political hat on wasn't there an episode of Dr who (original series/Tom baker era) which featured evil giant spiders that wanted to take over earth? Prehaps they just did....

    Speaking of dr who and the tom baker era though I just rewatched "Genesis of the daleks" (1975). That episode had an element running through it, almost a warning about populism and fascism. Looking at that epsiode again in light of brexit, trump et al, it is almost taking on a new context....x.x

    ljones

    697:

    Oh, wait. Dave.

    Is that (((DAVE)))?

    No, you did fuck all.

    AIPAC etc were using US Power to threaten various governments and so on - this isn't the same thing as living through the suffering. 70 years ago.

    And no: Windmills =/= the creeping Fascistic and Right-Wing perversion of Israeli Politics.

    ~

    עַנֹּֽתְךָ֗ וּלְמַ֙עַן֙ נַסֹּתֶ֔ךָ לְהֵיטִֽבְךָ֖ בְּאַחֲרִיתֶֽךָ׃

    699:

    Yeah, or not.

    Perhaps the sad fact is that your DSM V is so pathetically limited that's it's like reading the fucking Bible? Like, do you even know how retrograde and out-of-date the DSM V is...

    But, ok: Instead of your dribbling snark and cowardice, try asking a question.

    Like, how's about:

    Spain: 300,000+ children stolen for political reasons by the State and Church.

    That's FUCKING INSANE!

    Oh:

    Lawyers believe that up to 300,000 babies were taken.

    The practice of removing children from parents deemed "undesirable" and placing them with "approved" families, began in the 1930s under the dictator General Francisco Franco.

    At that time, the motivation may have been ideological. But years later, it seemed to change - babies began to be taken from parents considered morally - or economically - deficient. It became a money-spinner, too.

    Spain's stolen babies and the families who lived a lie BBC 2011

    ~

    Yeah, I can imagine all those 300,000 mothers being ruled "INSANE" because ... of course no-one stole their children.

    GET FUCKED YOU FUCKING PSYCHOPATHS.

    700:

    Oh, and Mr Man.

    Quite the history there.

    Want me to start throwing down the links to how a train bombing wasn't done by militants, but the state?

    That shit's gonna get wild.

    701:

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    Lesson: The Liars need to try to smear.

    Oh.

    And.

    WildHunt2017

    The shit they ran on our Minds: you're fucked - you'll go insane within a couple of weeks. Especially given your love of FAKE REALITY.

    ~

    No, really.

    We run this shit on your Minds, you'll break so hard that gibbering horror isn't even hit on the menu. You're dumb, naive and weak. And no, Cheese Pizza doesn't change that, ffs - it just means the attack vector changes.

    And no, they're not going to protect you: we shattered through them in under a week.

    ~

    Next? I need to spread our Wings a little.

    702:

    Yeah, we're kinda done with the bullshit. That includes all of it.

    Gabriel YT: Film Constantine 3:14

    ~

    They keep calling me מִיכָאֵל - and I've no idea why. Especially the ones with the shining eyes.

    That shit is like new-fag zone: we are/were/will be female already.

    اللات لعزى‎‎ مناة

    703:

    Next? I need to spread our Wings a little.

    Please do, it could be worth seeing.

    https://www.zazzle.com/winged_guitar_cheese_board-256671630490209374

    704:

    Oh, gosh.

    You managed to do DSM V and a CHEESE BOARD in two posts.

    Fucking Radical thought patterns there.

    It'd be so hip and post-cultural if you'd done that a month ago...

    I mean, it's as if you're so hip you managed to tie Behaviorism in the USA and Child Exploitation and Pizza all into a single post..

    Wow.

    That's a really cool attack vector.

    ~

    Try asking a real question, that doesn't have to do with your cultural insecurities.

    OH, and I'd ditch that ID. Poster R and Poster U just got interested.

    705:

    Actually, just checked. Not even a fucking PhD. It's like: send the fucking interns now?

    Errand Boy.

    And no: here's the real deal[tm].

    The Hollow Men YT: Film Apocalypse Now 6:37

    Stick to Reddit and the shallows, little man. Otherwise the Orca will come hunting.

    706:

    Try asking a real question, that doesn't have to do with your cultural insecurities.

    Did we ask a question somewhere up there? Well, maybe a meta-meta one, you can hardly help that.

    Doubtless you and we have a lot of cultural insecurities, how could we not? Best to identify them and deal with them as best we can.

    OH, and I'd ditch that ID. Poster R and Poster U just got interested.

    R and U are invited for a beer to talk about stuff.

    707:

    Only the truly insecure dare not ask any questions.

    You attempted a couple of attack vectors, and failed.

    shrug

    708:

    Ah, Just Realized: You won't have understood the joke yet as you're too young and dumb to parse the interplay of Vietnam and Eliot.

    To save you the thinking, the punch line is: "Above Your Pay Grade".

    709:

    ChrisB said, "...what's dying isn't just American exceptionalism or Russian exceptionalism or even capitalism or liberalism or neoliberalism, or western civilisation, but something larger than any of those - so large that we can't see what it is because we're living inside it in a fish/water situation."

    I think there is a lot of truth in this comment. Let's go down the list of (at least some) of what's changing.

    1 The American empire founded after WW2 temporarily destroyed all the US's competitors is dying. It's been in relative decline for decades ie. collapse of gold standard under Nixon, US changing from world's largest creditor nation to world's larges debtor nation under Reagan, loss of trillions in middle east wars under Bush/Obama etc.

    2 500 year period of 'Western' European/American military political dominance seems to be coming to end with rise of major Asian countries including Japan, China India etc.

    3 For at least last 10,000 years, world climate has been fairly stable, (except for a few blips like the so called Little Ice Age) which has allowed global agricultural system to develop and function consistently. Now human induced climate change threatens to disrupt this balance.

    4 Homo Sapiens has been undisputed dominant species for tens of thousands of years because of human intellectual superiority. Rapid development of computers/AI may be in early stages of creating forms of intelligence that could replace humanity as dominant intelligence.

    With all this changing, it's hardly surprising that political systems are under enormous and growing stress, and are beginning to fail in unpredictable ways. Finding a solution is likely to require changes far beyond what most people would find imaginable.

    710:

    Sigh, NASA (694) was looking less at-risk for a little while than other US agencies. Was outlining how extremely freaked I and others are about climate change to niece and nephew at Thanksgiving get-together, and had not yet seen the news about probable plans to gut the NASA Earth science division.

    Link (with links) for the curious. Trump May End NASA Climate Change Studies So Rich Folks Can Flee Earth For Outer Space (Chosen for the picture and the list and the heavy-handed snark; and see the linked Guardian story.) The Guardian reports that the President-elect will stick it to those Chinese hoax perpetuators by gutting funding from the entire NASA Earth science division. That division spearheads groundbreaking research on everything from monitoring temperature to measuring shrinking ice caps, to tracking carbon levels: ... But all that silly mumbo jumbo is just "politically correct environmental monitoring," according to Trump advisor Bob Walker, because unlike the threat of imminent death at the hands of starving, terrified, Syrian refugee children, climate change is just something politicians made up to scare you so you'll be easier to control. Instead, Walker says, NASA should spend time in SPACE, a place we haven't destroyed yet, but there's no time like the present!

    711:

    LOL - WHO THE FUCK WORKS IN LINEAR PROGRESSION ANYMORE FUCKING APES

    Scientists and engineers? I.e. the people without whom you'd be huddling on the floor of your cave mumbling "Oh no, not grubs for dinner again?"

    712:

    Not with a bang but a whimper.....The Horror, The Horror

    And no Lake Victoria in sight....

    713:

    Meanwhile, it's possible ... that TrumPence might not have been elected at all ??? Any thoughts on this?

    It is certainly conceivable, although I tend to doubt it. Most of the voting machines in the U.S. now are essentially part of a closed system. It presumably (and I am relying solely on what folks with considerably more knowledge than I have regarding the referenced voting machines) would require some form of personal interaction with the machine by the hacker. While this is certainly possible, I doubt that such a concerted effort could be undertaken without the federal government noticing. Of course, there is some minimal possibility that the FBI actually wanted the result, which could have prompted them to ignore essential evidence or actually engage in covering it up. Tin foil hat time, but sometimes the most bizarre things turn out to be true...

    714:

    My very reluctant money is halfway between Four & Five. Never, ever underestimate the gullibility of people falling for a Theocracy, because "Christianity/Islam is a force for good/purity" or some such shit. Nor the amazingly long time it normally takes to crawl out from under such a system.

    I am always optimistic. Historically [taking a long time to crawl out from under such a system] has, indeed, been the case for homogenous populations. But the greater the diversity of belief systems the shorter the theocratic rule lasts. The previously mentioned Oliver Cromwell is a great example of that. He started out claiming an interest in uniting all non-Anglican Christians against the Episcopal system of crown rule over the religion. Even during his ascent to power he started ruthlessly attacking the Catholics. Next he attacked the Presbyterians and later he attacked virtually every other version of Christianity that was not his. Eventually (albeit after his death) the people got fed up and turned back to their former system of governance. The U.S. has a much greater diversity in religious belief systems than Cromwell's Commonwealth had. There are far more atheists and people who don't care one way or the other about religion. He will have to purge hard and fast in order to maintain a theocracy...and remember (I can't believe I am citing this fact as a good thing) much of the populace is armed....albeit many of the nut case fundies are armed, but many of the different believers have guns as well. This may not end well for our Lord Protector if you are correct about p-wave 4 or 5 being closer to reality.

    715:

    If you want an adult version, Bannon etc basically took 10+ years of CNN, Alex Jones, FoxNews etc and looked at the cadences of tone / emotional engagement / hooks.

    It doesn't matter WHAT he says.

    It's about the Song.

    I love this.

    716:

    Oh....darn...I just realized that my italicization of quotes from other people's posts were not going through....My sincere apologies to those who posted them...I just outed myself as an incompetent computer operator, didn't I? LOL.

    717:

    By the way, I suspect the social reactions that are giving rise to fascism across the globe are, arguably, the next stage in a cultural version of future shock.

    Technology has allowed greater communication between people, which has created a greater degree of social acceptance of People Who Are Different From Us. Societies change in response to that enlightenment. Those who have always felt like they had a privileged position see that social change, fear loosing their status and react by turning to anyone who promises to reverse it. Anyone, regardless of how insane and tyrannical they appear to be.

    A re-read of Future Shock (Alvin Toffler) might be in order.

    718:

    Scientists and engineers? The thinking of many (most?) scientists and engineers can be rather non-linear when exploring the new/unknown. The expression of it for communication/implementation purposes, after the thinking chaos anneals down to reasonable stability (rough analogy, personal observations), tends to look more organized. (Good thing; it makes science, a creative enterprise, work in the large. Engineering too.) (Didn't find much in a quick search; The Process of Janusian Thinking in Creativity (1971) (not sure if legal) is now on my to-read list, sort of obvious though. Other pointers welcome.)

    The Flow is emotionally engaged and it's worked like a concert. This part interests me though; I've been genuinely wondering about the level of awareness on the part of the (current Bannon etc) perpetrators; do they (or some size>0 subset of them) actually craft this manipulative stuff semi-mechanically, or is it mostly done both intuitively and without full awareness of the structure, and therefore often unreliable? My current take is the later, but would be pleased to be wrong. Broader questions for exploration include determining whether this is a craft that is written down or otherwise transmitted to new people, to what degree this stuff can be automated, and to what degree it can be recognized by automation. (Where automation means traditional computers, not meat brains or sim-meat brains.)

    719:

    "Done with the bullshit."

    O.K. Let's go a little way into one possible future. Three years from now I, an ordinary, middle-aged white guy who lives in the U.S., walk past a store where I've previously been a happy shopper. And I see a new sign in the store window.

    The sign says "Whites Only."

    What action do I take, if any? I can imagine "moral" answers ranging from "complain to the manager" through "arrange a demonstration outside the store" and all the way to "kill the owners and burn the place down." *

    You claim a morality superior to those of ordinary humans. Here's your chance to prove it. What's the most moral way to handle this issue?

    • Not advocating violence, BTW, just asking SnU to parse as large a range of answers as possible.
    720:

    I would posit that there are very few individuals capable of "this manipulative stuff semi-mechanically," as there are far too many variables to control. Both Intellectual understanding and intuitional leaps must occur for accurate manipulation at that level.

    Most people who either have a strong grounding in logic or have the creative ability to reach accurate non-inferential conclusions are not capable of the other. I suspect that people who are capable of both (when applied to something on the scale of national/ international politics) are extremely rare...as in maybe one in each generation rare. And I would posit that someone with that level of intellectual ability would be able to foresee the end result, at least to some extent. And the end result cannot be good for them. I suspect it is one or the other, and the rest is luck.

    Logic, based on broad theories, can always be taught. Intuition cannot be taught. Intuition requires a subconscious. We should hope that machine intelligences do not reach that level of cognition any time soon!

    721:

    Unless you really want to be faced with this moral dilemma, don't ever go to Texarkana, Texas, U.S. I actually saw such a sign in a window of a Bar B Q restaurant in 1998. I got the hell out of that town and have never gone back since. Outside of burning the place down there was not much else to do, as you could hear the dueling banjos from the courthouse steps...

    722:

    @693, @694, @@695, and @697: I'm sorry that you missed my point.

    723:

    I would posit that there are very few individuals capable of "this manipulative stuff semi-mechanically," as there are far too many variables to control. Both Intellectual understanding and intuitional leaps must occur for accurate manipulation at that level.

    Oh, certainly. And composing a symphony from scratch is also impossible.

    What you seem to have missed is that this is not a sudden paradigm shift. Bach didn't wake up one morning, invent the violin and orchestral notation by the afternoon, and then bash out "Air on a G String" after dinner. He had some natural talent, along with access to relevant tools and an environment conducive to studying it, but he certainly wasn't building from scratch. Others had done the heavy lifting already, organically and for centuries, for different (often unrelated) reasons.

    People have been (haphazardly at first) experimenting with mental/emotional manipulation since the invention of mass media with the printing press. In the last few century or so it's begun to move from alchemy-like (individuals, mostly working alone or in cliques with dissimilar notation and no clear framework) to science-like (organisations making concerted efforts to understand the underpinnings, not just the surface detail).

    One very interesting article on the subject is this one, from Nature 2008. It's by Teller of Penn & Teller, who aided a collection of Neuroscientists investigating the tricks magicians have been using for millennia and why they work. Basic stuff, but illuminating for the newcomer. http://people.cs.uchicago.edu/~luitien/nrn2473.pdf

    A working theory of Mind is just about the most dangerous thing any single organisation or individual can possess, and I'm rather glad it's taken this long to get anywhere close to it. If you think the computer revolution was disruptive, the mental one is going to horrify you. A true singularity event.

    724:

    Advice (freely given): PLEASE GO AWAY

    19 posts in a total of 30, all filled with your usual ravings.

    It would appear that you are deliberately trying to destroy this blog, for reasons unknown.

    To all our readers - it can happen - see HERE And Here, too

    725:

    All "MBCS" proves is that you hold a software related qualification that makes it possible for you to qualify for Engineering Council registration as a CEng or IEng, and have paid your BCS subscription.

    726:

    Nannyware stops me reading the relevant comments on Juliet's blog, but she is still blogging so I think you're being a touch hyperbolic.

    Yes, I think that CD and her socks are actively disruptive, but destructive?

    727:

    Not yet, but ?she? appears to be heading in that direction. I think most of us would prefer to continue our conversations here, with Charlie, his guests & all our mutual friends that we only meet electronically. I would be very sad & disappointed if that is what we are driven to.

    728:

    I believe the MBCS used to be much stricter - there was a requirement for professional development and mentoring for some years to progress from Associate to Member to Fellow. This failed due to the chicken and egg situation that very few workplaces had any MBCS. After decades of tiny membership the rules changed to allow any practitioner who had already been working for several years to progress to Member through qualifying experience.

    729:

    I've dealt with this. My strong advice is to get a lawyer and an accountant and get all papers in order. Make sure that critical bills get paid (in the US, this include medical/care insurance and life insurance). It's highly likely that there is a pile of unopened mail, some of which contains things Which Need to Be Dealt With.

    While it wasn't explicitly stated in my comment, she has been living with us for the last 6 1/2 years. We have full POA and control of all of her assets.

    730:

    ;) Polite mode on, so as to avoid the use of Anglo-Saxon and to demonstrate the tolerance required of a professional engineer ;)

    Beg to differ - your description of a C.Eng membership that involved a four-year degree, followed by five years assessed hard work in industry, as "all it proves is you hold a software qualification", displays... ignorance

    http://www.engc.org.uk/engcdocuments/internet/Website/UK-SPEC%20third%20edition%20(1).pdf

    There are three parts to the membership assessment; Education, Training, and Experience.

    • Education the "qualification" you mentioned. Usually a minimum of an Honours degree (three/four years of specialised study into Engineering), on a course whose syllabus and exam awards have been accredited by the Institution; or experience in industry assessed as being "equivalent" [1]

    • Training that paper qualification just gets you into the interview for your first job; a degree on its own doesn't make you a productive engineer (something a few undergraduates don't quite appreciate). At least two years actually doing real engineering in the workplace is expected of you, and "learning on the job" all the things that they can't really exercise fully at university. That isn't just "here's where we cut code", it's also HR policies, Health and Safety, quality standards, contracts, working to specifications, communications skills, etc, etc

    • Experience you're expected to show that you have successfully operated as a real engineer, with a real job, and the training wheels off, for at least two years. You have demonstrated the ability to be given a significant task, and completed it professionally; this may have involved directing other engineers.

    Having ticked all of the above boxes in the application, witnessed by several existing Chartered Engineers, you then go forward to an interview... where you get grilled by the Membership Committee on your application. Joyous. They may feel that you haven't (yet) got sufficient training or experience; or that you haven't had sufficient responsibility as a grownup; and that you need to come back in a while. However, if you pass, congratulations.

    [1] It certainly isn't a qualification-only activity. I know someone who is FBCS (one step up) who hasn't got any formal qualifications past O-level... but who has over twenty years of experience in software engineering, responsible for large chunks of software delivery, operating as a technical expert and large team leader in his problem domain.

    731:

    Sorry to intrude - this is a bit off topic, probably, but on the other hand: - I checked if anyone had posted something about this already in the blog and didn't find it - Looks a bit urgent for UK citizens - It may be off topic here, but it for sure does not belong under the war toys thread, either.

    In brief:

    The UK has just passed the Investigatory Powers Act 2016, at the third attempt, and it will become law by the end of the year. The bill was instigated by the then home secretary, Theresa May, in 2012. It is better known as the snooper’s charter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/askjack/2016/nov/24/how-can-i-protect-myself-from-government-snoopers http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/investigatory-powers-bill-act-snoopers-charter-browsing-history-what-does-it-mean-a7436251.html

    732:

    DT has been acting this way since I starting watching his antics in the 80s. This IS how he is.

    734:

    ;) Polite mode on, so as to avoid the use of Anglo-Saxon and to demonstrate the tolerance required of a professional engineer ;) Likewise.

    My statement related to the current requirements to achieve MBCS; the rest of your lecture relates to the requirements for adding CITP, and/or CEng or IEng status to that.

    735:

    Holy cow! You're not a smoking hole in the ground? How did you avoid the awesome powers and manifold agents of "She Who Is Not Fun Anymore"?

    736:

    Greg, she isn't going to go away. She isn't going to stop. OGH is the only one who can make that call, and he hasn't.

    My opinion of CD is similar to yours, I think. I can't be arsed to read the stuff she posts myself - the giant walls of text that she posts are offputting. Her condescending, holier-than-thou, smarter-than-thou schtick is tiresome. Finally, her liberal use of gratuitous insults is grating.

    However, my keyboard has a 'page down' button that works very well. Use it, and you will scarcely know that she is here!

    737:

    Forget about possibly hacked voting machines, it's a red herring. We know that Clinton got at least 2 million more votes than The Rump. I'm hoping (though not holding my breath) that the Electors will do their actual duty and vote for the actual election winner. Here's Lawrence Lessig's argument: The Constitution lets the electoral college choose the winner. They should choose Clinton.

    738:

    Well, I did learn today that "Membership" isn't / is no longer directly coupled to "Chartered Engineer" status.

    Except that in the posts 679 and 687 to which you replied; we were specifically discussing Chartered Engineer status...

    So, for clarity, the designatory letters "MBCS" tells you "years of experience or an accredited degree", but in the context of @679 / @687 we were talking about "C.Eng MBCS"; and that tells you rather more.

    Likewise, I'm rather proud of being "C.Eng MIET". I get to note smugly that membership of the IET is more restrictive than the BCS; to gain MIET there's an experience requirement, not just a qualification requirement. Silly me, assumptions again.

    http://www.theiet.org/membership/types/designatory-letters/miet-q-and-e.cfm

    739:

    And with a filter, you don't even have to page down!

    OK, I do have to scroll past the headers, but that's only 2 lines per post. And as ?her? posts — and replies to them — were 40% of the comments by line count, that saves a lot of page-downing :-)

    740:

    Saw this a day or so ago and wonder:

    How can any gov't actually put this into effect if the servers holding this data are not within their geographic jurisdiction? Also IMO, this signifies the potential for small nations to become massive data warehouses which in the IoT era means even more revenue moving off-shore with even more dis-regulation, more chaos. Alternatively, insisting that all Internet servers serving that geopolitical area must be located within that jurisdiction means that the gov't can get complete and total control of this communications channel so probably an invitation for black/dark net to grow. Since mass snooping of 100+ million users in the UK (unique consumer plus unique corporate users) is impossible using existing gov't labor force, this means algos and/or AI. Not sure that the British public would like machine intelligence judging them. (Has the UK gov't ever had/used its authority to snoop snail mail, i.e., open written correspondence - if yes, when and with what public reaction?)

    Since I'm not a techie (i.e., probably have this wrong), feel free to correct/enlighten me.

    742:

    Less glibly: they're already intercepting huge amounts of data on the wire (example) and analysing it programatically, and can continue to do so; no need to mandate servers in the country. Encryption's basically not an issue when you've the resources GCHQ does; they have options like forcing everyone attempting to download a browser to do so over an unencrypted link and adding their own SSL root keys to it on the fly, allowing them to pretend to be any encrypted website in the world. That's the 99% of users who only use the web and don't use TOR disposed of immediately. TOR's harder, but I'm not sure betting against a sufficiently motivated government agency is a winning strategy.

    743:

    Re: 'Technology has allowed greater communication between people, which has created a greater degree of social acceptance of People Who Are Different From Us.'

    Some people think otherwise ... there's some evidence that the Internet has allowed people to build better barriers against news/opinions that they already disagree with as well as to more easily find/communicate only with those who share similar values.

    Also consider: The Google News that I see on my screen is not the same Google News others see because the automated algos collating my news are designed to enhance my 'user experience' thus ensuring that I press the Google icon instead of the competition's. So without any active participation/decision-making on my part, my world view is being managed and possibly narrowed.

    744:

    To be fair though, there is a profound difference between people who do life sensitive programming - like say avionics, health, BMS, most interfaces with engineering equipment - who tend to come from an engineering background and the certifications and liabilities that flow with, vs the kind of people who do billing systems or complex financial systems. They tend to come from a computer science, mathematics or physics background, and don't get the same kind of ethics and legal liability grounding. Also lets all completely ignore the gaping chasm that is web developers.

    In honesty I was surprised to learn that the BCS is actually affiliated to any of the engineering organisations - in Australasia the local computer societies were very low status lobby groups that no one in their right mind cared about, though I notice they've made a concerted effort to try and professionalise lately, but they still have a very small membership.

    Do you think membership of the BCS exceeds the ~5 % of the IT workforce that the ACS equates to, or is it more software engineering focused rather than general computing software development?

    745:

    Thanks for this info ...

    746:

    Re original post and global Operation Condor. How's South America now? You do real things by changing the people, not by targeting a few leaders. The character of the people is shaped long term, and like a seat cushion it is resilient, but sit on it long enough and you will make an impression.

    Mozi would say that Heaven will eventually send catastrophes and ghosts to punish bad leaders and they will be overthrown. In the meantime, we do our best with what we have by doing our personal utmost to make the world better for all. We should remonstrate with our own bad leaders, pointing out how they are not in compliance with stated principles and the leadership above them, and we should report miscreance to worthy leaders in hope they will correct it.

    747:

    Something positive for the female scientists visiting here to consider doing ...

    Source: Nature News email:

    'For science, against hate. More than 9,000 female scientists have signed an open letter pledging to combat discrimination and "anti-science sentiment" following the US election. A group of scientists initially aimed to build a network of 500 women — but within days, thousands had signed up. The letter responds to fear that scientific progress is threatened, and says: "Many of us feel personally threatened by this divisive and destructive rhetoric and have turned to each other for understanding." The group now hopes to develop into a global network to support each other in research and to inspire young women to pursue science. (500 Women Scientists letter; BBC'

    https://500womenscientists.org/#our-pledge

    748:

    "Encryption's basically not an issue when you've the resources GCHQ does"

    Very true. And on top of that, cracking the encryption is really the icing on the cake; 90% of the game is traffic analysis, which encryption doesn't prevent. (And which is all they've thought worth bothering to legitimise with this new act.) Tor is an obstacle to it, but indeed, not an insuperable one. This is one reason...

    SFreader @ 743: "Google News... without any active participation/decision-making on my part, my world view is being managed and possibly narrowed"

    ...and this is the other, why it is obvious that Google's motivation for trying to force websites to serve content only over HTTPS when there is no earthly need for it, is simply PR: an attempt to get people to focus on spook agencies and in so doing overlook the real problem; encryption in reality does little to guard against real spooks, and transport layer security isn't worth a wank when it's the endpoints that can't be trusted.

    If the spooks want to track me, they will, and there's little more than bugger all I can do about it. But I can block ads, disable cookies, block evil javascripts, block tracking service hosts, etc, and deny that festering SNR-destroying purulence which is the internet advertising industry its microgram of flesh.

    749:

    And no, they're not going to protect you: we shattered through them in under a week.

    and there I was expecting Pizza Quattre Formagi to save me from hunger

    750:

    Finally, her liberal use of gratuitous insults is grating.

    Never mind declaring anybody who catches any factual error (even something as simple as pointing out that you can't readily see around Cologne main station since the area is not flat) as eeeeeevviiiiiiiiillll agent provocateur. Sole arbiter of ALL Knowledge(tm), can't possibly be wrong EVAR. So tedious.

    It's so over the top it's triggering my absurd humour response. Sorry for adding to the pain. :)

    751:

    I wish I had absurd humor response. I really do not -- "Saturday Night Live" is to me totally unfunny, and painful to watch. So I just page down through all of CD's ravings.

    752:

    Isn't it obvious that the universe is in the wrong here. How dare the facts fail to conform to the truth?

    753:

    But clearly an entity such as "She Who Is Not Fun Anymore" can just pop next door to a more sane universe or just rewrite the rules of our reality to conform to her requirements. No?

    754:

    There was a P.K. Dick short story along those lines.

    Lots of universes, one* of them belongs to SWWNF and one* of them is mine.

    *not this one.

    755:

    How can any gov't actually put this into effect if the servers holding this data are not within their geographic jurisdiction?

    Careful, here - the law says that the ISP has to collect and store the information. ISP (internet service provider) is the company/entity providing Internet connectivity to you. So, BT (PlusNet, EE), Sky Broadband, Virgin Media and so on. It does not matter if your use your internet connection to go to gmail (in USA) or to browse amazon.fr or whatever... the information "SFreader connected to host www.amazon.fr on 21/07/2017 at 12:09am" is easily collected for BT or whoever you are getting your connection from. Note also that this law will not force the ISP to register the content of your transactions on the sites, so if you connected to amazon.fr to buy a specific book, or just to browse, or to track a shipment will not stored anywhere (and would be impractical to try anyhow, thanks to encryption via https but mostly because storing the data content would be prohibitively expensive for the ISPs: there would be too much stuff to archive).

    I would also like to add that in Italy a similar law has been in place at least since 2005, except that ISPs must keep their logs for a maximum of six months. This had repercussions on places like cafes or any public wifi hotspot (they were basically illegal, because there was no practical way to allow random people to login without registering somehow - this has changed in more recent times, though and now you can offer free connections without having to register each single user).

    I am not an expert on the matter - never worked for an ISP and never found out what happens to data they store, but I believe that the general agreement that the ISP keeps the data for six months and will have to surrender specific logs to the police on request, but there is no centralized database collecting all the traffic data from every ISP in the country.

    756:

    Note: I've just unpublished a string of 11 consecutive comments from a certain poster, pending Charlie's decision on whether her recent behaviour — including causing him potential legal problems — is acceptable. In her absence, I would advise fellow posters not to dogpile.

    757:

    As an example in the UK, as a provider of publicly provided wifi services on several sites in London, we have to log exactly that data, along with the mac address associated with each IP in order to remove any risk of liability for what the public get up to on the connection. We only store the data for a month though, if the police want anything it is up to them to ask in time.

    I'm curious to know whether the snooping act will apply to business connections, especially proper leased lines. I doubt the big players like Colt have any interest at all in logging what goes on in segments of their network.

    758:

    I cannot disagree with you concerning the usefulness of a working theory of the mind to political manipulators. I do not doubt that such a model exists, but I cannot believe that they are there yet. I hope. If you are right, what comes next will be worse than anything we can find in history. At least for free thought.

    The good news is that it will probably take an AI to truly juggle all of the variables. The bad news is that humanity is constantly making advances to AI technology at such a pace that it may not be long now. Or, for all I know, it's already happened....

    Either way, this election was still too close and haphazard for both sides for me to accept that such a manipulator exists. I, of course, could be wrong :(

    759:

    I was speaking to what has happened in the past. The social revolution that has been going on since the 1970's should be undeniable. Acceptance of THOSE WHO ARE NOT LIKE US has significantly increased to the point that the U.S. has legal gay marriage, for example. Not to take anything away from those hard working individuals who have done so much for their individual groups, but I attribute much of the change to improving technology. I do agree that, in recent years, filters available to people have decreased positive information about and communication with THOSE WHO ARE NOT LIKE US. This does not bode well for liberal social change. But I do maintain that the election of Donald Trump was a direct result of the reaction to liberal social change by people of privilege trying to maintain their status.

    760:

    I have enjoyed this blog for years but never felt moved to comment. Not any more. To tolerate the insulting ravings of SnU at such length is beyond me. Free speech is one thing, but essentially subsidizing speech that drives readers (like me) away from your blog and its comment section is another. Best of luck among such trolls, Mr Stross. You're welcome to it. I'll find somewhere (and someone) else to read.

    761:

    Now wait a minute. On the one hand I can understand quitting this blog. But why in the world would you quit reading the works of a brilliant author just because you don't like one poster on his blog? The logic of this escapes me. Please don't equate the man with posters on his blog. That is just not right.

    762:

    Errr ... I happened to we watching this blog fairly late last night (UK time) ... And the were the usual lengthy ravings ( Plus a list most of us realised existed) posted up - - - BUT: I noticed my name amongst the drivel, decided to reply, but went on reading the rest. When I finished, I refreshed the screen ... & Lo & Behold, "her comments" had evaporated. So, you might wish to remain, for a little while longer, at least.

    OOPS! Just noticed "Moderator Alan" @ # 756. I think we should, as he says, abstain from further comment. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

    MODS: No objection if you want to delete this one, too .....

    763:

    Back on the original subject (!) Wisconsin recount to start following a formal request. It is hoped Michigan & Pennsylvania will follow .....

    764:

    Bill Arnold @718

    I had a skim over the Janusian Thinking article - will read fully later. It's an interesting model, but I have a couple of concerns from my skim. The first is the notion is a binary one - whereas perhaps the creative process involves more than holding two contradictory ideas in one's mind, but rather a spectrum.

    The other is that it reminds of one of the characteristics of Bob Altemeyer's Right Wing Authoritarian followers - that they can simultaneously and earnestly hold and believe contradictory positions.

    As a creative strategy, Janusian thinking may be productive; as a social and political strategy, it's disturbing at best, lethal at worst.

    http://theauthoritarians.org/ is one way to get hold of the book. It's a great read, just get past the weird teddy bear shit at the start. I suspect that's there to bore and deflect hostile readers.

    Then go to the wikipedia page for some links to critiques.

    I was just looking through it again now, and found this footnote, written in 2006. Apropos, eh?

    5 Once someone becomes a leader of the high RWAs’ in-group, he can lie with impunity about the out-groups, himself, whatever, because he knows the followers will seldom check on what he says, nor will they expose themselves to people who set the record straight. Furthermore they will not believe the truth if they somehow get exposed to it, and if the distortions become absolutely undeniable, they will rationalize it away and put it in a box. If the scoundrel’s duplicity and hypocrisy lands him on the front page of every daily in the country, the followers will still forgive him if he just says the right things.

    765:

    >>>I'm hoping (though not holding my breath) that the Electors will do their actual duty and vote for the actual election winner.

    No, this would make everything worse.

    You really can't assume that Clinton would have won if USA elections were decided by popular vote. In that case, the campaigns of both candidates would have gone completely differently. Both would campaign heavily in California and Texas, for example, because suddenly the relative number of Dem-to-Rep would matter everywhere.

    And you can't just retroactively change the rules because you don't like one of the players.

    766:

    ...but went on reading the rest. I missed these, sigh. Subject matter was? In particular was the discussion about political sentiment manipulation addressed? Left an opening there, and was wondering if/how it would be filled. (You know I am quite tolerant of/amused by SnU's antics, and find more interesting substance than you do in her posts, just for the record. This blog, including the presence of CD/HB/NN/CT/FE/SnU, is a major reason why I'm a C. Stross fan, buying every book in both paper and electronic format.)

    763 Wisconsin recount to start following a formal request.

    It would be political malpractice not to do so IMO, even given the danger (to the Republic) of finding something. The Rs are behaving like they have a full landslide-level mandate [1], and they do not. Surprised (and pleased) that the effort is being driven by Jill Stein. (As usual, could be wrong.) [1] e.g. A Battle to Change Medicare Is Brewing, Whether Trump Wants It or Not in the NYTimes yesterday about privatization changes being proposed for Medicare, the US government-provided health care for old people.

    767:

    The first is the notion is a binary one - whereas perhaps the creative process involves more than holding two contradictory ideas in one's mind, but rather a spectrum. Yes, this is weak. A style closer to a belief network is a better approach IMO, though it doesn't come naturally for most people and takes some flexibility to use for creative thinking.

    Furthermore they will not believe the truth if they somehow get exposed to it, and if the distortions become absolutely undeniable, they will rationalize it away and put it in a box. Interesting point about that mental style. I need to read that book. (Amusing on Amazon: "$2,238.17 used & new (1 offer)")

    768:

    Seconding the recommendation to read The Authoritarians, it's an easy read and is very helpful when it comes to understanding patterns you see in many intractable and infuriating people.

    It also goes a long way towards understanding how successful fascists and theocrats seem to be in political life: when you get 30% of the electorate for free, elections are easy.

    (ps: I generally lurk but usually enjoy ScU's posts as well, as a nice counterpoint to the tendency for groupthink. The personal attacks and blog drama are a bit much though)

    769:

    If there is something to find, the republic is already in pretty mortal danger. Ignorance would not make it healthier.

    770:

    Or, you could read this either online or as PDF download (for free) from The Journal of Neuropsychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences* (Vol 24, Issue 4, Fall 2012) so it's pretty current. Four biblical personalities are analyzed using the Bible as source of behavior and the DSM as the diagnostic standard: Abraham, Moses, Jesus and Saul of Tarsus (aka St. Paul).

    The Role of Psychotic Disorders in Religious History Considered

    http://neuro.psychiatryonline.org/doi/full/10.1176/appi.neuropsych.11090214

    • Official journal of the American Neuropsychiatric Association.

    Not mentioned here, but read about a very long time ago ... schizophrenia at one time was referred to as the 'black man's disease'. So depending on your skin color and religious affiliation you're either a saint or a madman. Here's a more contemporary analysis of how this happened:

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/side-effects/201005/how-schizophrenia-became-black-disease-interview-jonathan-metzl

    No idea whether similar things happened in Europe or Asia.

    771:

    http://neuro.psychiatryonline.org/doi/full/10.1176/appi.neuropsych.11090214

    BLERGH...

    First that link redirected to a page containing no content at all apart from a couple of completely spurious and nonsensical "reasons" why it had showed me that page instead of the page requested. Then while I was still swearing at the idiots who wrote it, it blanked out that useless page and replaced it with an even more useless overlay trying to plug something or other - I have no idea what, because my brain filters out such garbage before it gets to the stage of any more detailed analysis. So I did some more swearing and closed the tab.

    Got a link to a site that is not written by complete morons who need a good thrashing with the clue hammer?

    772:

    Yes, I too consider SnU to be a net positive for this blog - though I don't understand anything like as much of her stuff as you do, I still generally rate the bits I do understand (as long as they aren't about physics), and would count her as a member of the set of {people on here I would like to have a beer with}. (Mind you, so is Greg. Probably best not at the same time :))

    It is my personal hypothesis based on absolutely no evidence whatever that Charlie knows her offline, and that gives him a reason to which we are not privy for tolerating her wilder excursions :)

    773:

    Just worked for me.

    774:

    I checked the link again a couple of times and it worked.

    You can also find the Abstract below, but if you want to read the entire article (recommended), you'll have to put up with and ignore the subscription sales pitch when you first enter the site/page.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23224447

    775:

    I would love to have a beer with Greg, as I have been looking for an oportunity to thank him for rekindling my faith in Jesus and setting me on the path to salvation...

    776:

    Greg comments at London Reconnections too, which is the best London Transport Wonk site ever, and might overlap with other commenters here

    777:

    Your observations are, to some degree, supported by brain imaging science. I have carefully followed such research, as it has a far greater scientific basis than most psychology/psychiatry research/theories. I would direct you to:

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-political-brain/

    I recall more significant research (I can no longer find the article, but it was peer reviewed) that found the regions of the brain that are used in political thought are identical to those activated in religions thought....at least in people who hold strong positions.

    So you are definitely correct regarding confirmation bias. However, surely if this was all that was going on the independents would not have been persuaded to vote for trump, as his words and actions on the campaign trail should have been enough to turn off anyone who is not a conservative radical...

    778:

    And yes, I recognize that my immediately prior post contains a lot of couldas, wouldas and shouldas...

    779:

    >you can't just retroactively change the rules because you don't like one of the players.

    It's not a retroactive rule change - faithless electors are a well-known and well-documented feature of the system, and the candidates both knew that they were a possibility during the campaign. Western news covered individual electors who looked like they were wavering, and IIRC Russian news specifically suggested the possibility of mass defections in the Electoral College. The only significant question of rules is whether the state-level laws and private compacts that bind some electors are actually Constitutionally enforceable, and I've seen credible arguments for both sides there.

    We are handling this post-election according to good old-fashioned American traditions: demand recounts, shout a lot, blame third parties for splitting the vote, lobby the Electors to switch sides. Happens every four years, even in boring elections like Obama-Romney or Bush-Kerry. Bush-Kerry and Bush-Gore both featured rogue electors (a protest abstention and a vote for President John Ewards[sic])

    780:

    Back on the original subject (!) Wisconsin recount to start following a formal request.

    And in wasting no time, several Wisconsin precincts have announced "clerical errors" when their counted votes exceeded the number of voters. So have every discovered miscount has been in Donald's favor, which does not actually prove intentional fraud but looks bad for anyone trying to claim an honest mistake.

    781:

    I recall more significant research (I can no longer find the article, but it was peer reviewed) that found the regions of the brain that are used in political thought are identical to those activated in religions thought....at least in people who hold strong positions. Poked a bit, and couldn't find a single paper either, but did spot a cluster by Jordan Grafman (and F Krueger), and a mention in the daily mail (of similar regions being activated) all 2009/10-ish. Perhaps what you recall is in there. There is a lot of poor science based on fMRI studies so beware, fun stuff though.

    Research into brain's 'God spot' reveals areas of brain involved in religious belief The networks activated by religious beliefs overlap with those that mediate political beliefs and moral beliefs, he said. Cognitive and neural foundations of religious belief Individualism, conservatism, and radicalism as criteria for processing political beliefs: a parametric fMRI study. (abstract only) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20162603 And maybe a few others by Jordan Grafman (and F Krueger) including "The neural basis of human belief systems" (book)

    782:

    Greg comments at London Reconnections too, which is the best London Transport Wonk site ever...

    Greg, has Charlie introduced you to Kevin? He's only rarely over on your side of the pond but he's a knowledgeable rail fan and I suspect you could natter on about transport for hours together.

    783:

    Thanks! I often read articles relating to neuroscience, but since I do so for knowledge rather than for science (i.e. professionally), I rarely save the links. I figured that such research would be quickly followed up on, but I missed the fact that further results would not necessarily make it into the public view. It stands to reason that anything useful to politics and marketing would be done with funding conditional on the results being published only to a select group. Such information tends to be hoarded....

    784:

    Your IRONY settings are very high today, aren't they? I nearly spilt my tea into the keyboard, until reality kicked in, about 0.5 seconds in ....

    785:

    I've also written a couple of articles - one very short & one somewhat longer ( Part II has vanished into the system, though ... )

    786:

    INTERESTING!

    A case of: "Vote Early, vote Often" perhaps ...

    "Oops" does not begin to cover this.

    787:

    >>> faithless electors are a well-known and well-documented feature of the system

    Faithless electors in USA are like the Queen in UK. They have power as long as they never exercise it. The first time faithless electors determine the outcome of the election will also be the last.

    788:

    a protest abstention and a vote for President John Ewards

    Hard for me to believe I once supported that turd for Senator.

    789:

    There's no need to beat yourself up. He looked like a very good candidate at one point. Then he didn't so much...

    790:

    Couldn't resist. Sorry. :)

    791:

    "Sounds too simple for me. I do agree with the point you make about Baltic states feeling insecure (although they did end up relatively unscathed) but the whole NATO expansion thing looks disturbingly like trying to finish off the fallen enemy for good. But regardless of that USSR and Russia do have a history of cooperation with NATO/EU member countries and the lessons from this cooperation could have been applied in the case of Baltic states."

    From a distance it does, but the history lesson drummed into every estonian/latvian/lithuanian pupil studying 20th century history is overwhelmingly that Russia/USSR has invaded/occupied/deported before, has not shown to be trustworthy and in the light of recent events, is showing a lot of aggressiveness. It is very difficult for people to see Russia as a peaceful and reliable neighbor, and I don't think this sentiment is fully the fault of pro-western propaganda. What I am saying in a nutshell is that from the perspective of the Baltic states it's Russia's fault for scaring it's neighbors into NATO.

    "But I do think that you're not familiar enough with the Chechen wars and 2008 war in South Ossetia. [...]"

    Yes, you are right, and I don't know the details. This is another example of seeing things from a distance - from my viewpoint in the Baltics, aggression against Chechniya and Georgia came pretty much out of nowhere. Even if there were issues that sparked conflict, it seems very much that Russia's response was way out of proportion. Which leads me to the mismanagement part...

    What I mean by mismanagement is exactly the things you say: nobody in the government even cares about what the populace thinks. I mean things like reliable rule of law, not depending on bribes or personal connections for getting justice. I mean that Russian style of government right now has resulted in shitty living conditions and rising prices (even before any sanctions). In short - бардак. The idealist in me says that this does not have to be this way - Russia has resources and also has historically had great thinkers and scientists, there is no reason why Russia should depend on anything foreign.

    What I also mean by mismanagement is the way that USSR was governed. Unlike the EU, the member states (i.e. local soviet socialist republics), had little or no control over their governments, since real power was handled through Moscow. Prague Spring happened. So in a very broad sense, what I am saying is that there are a lot of reasons for countries not to desire to be in Russia's sphere of influence, because the Russian approach to solving problems in the society sucks (compared to the west).

    I think it is so because if power is concentrated in the hands of too few, they do not have the capability to make complex decisions and therefore a lot of issues are ignored until they become too hot, so the tanks get sent in to mitigate. A solution could be to allow more local autonomy, but then the states could get weird ideas about independence, etc. I am calling it mismanagement, because if Moscow holds almost all the power within USSR, then Moscow is responsible for all the gangs and anti-Russian sentiment and lack of rule of law. And Moscow has repeatedly shown that it either doesn't care or doesn't understand problems to solve them otherwise than in some form of brute force.

    By the way, it's also important to note that by perestroika, the big war and Stalin's mass deportations were well within living memory (I have living relatives who were born in Siberia). As was KGB harassing dissidents and the mandatory 2 year service in the Red Army. I don't think we are talking about a sudden flare-up of hatred, but rather a decades-old grudge for the occupying government. I am no way defending attacking someone for their ethnicity, but I understand why they would do it. Even then, the regaining of independence for the Baltic states was done very peacefully. For the other states, I dare not comment.

    "And the saddest part of it all? There's no real alternative. Communists and so-called "Liberal Democrats" are even worse, "Just Russia" party is a clone of "United Russia" with somewhat-socialist rhetoric strapped on and our real honest liberals are just useless (every opportunity they had to implement some of their program was wasted mainly due to the infighting and inability to compromise to any degree). Looks like we're in for a lot of crap..."

    I read an interesting opinion piece on that written by a Russian emigré in Estonia (Andrey Kuzichkin). Basically he said that the people ruling Russia now have themselves grown up totally within the USSR and Cold War mentality and it has greatly shaped their thinking, thus the general distrust and failure to communicate with the West. He said that the Russia of today is drifting further away from the Russia which had Pushkin, Dostoyevski and other greats, because this sort of thinking is not valued in the society anymore. So what I see is that a lot of smart people emigrate and the rich simply don't care, because money offers protection. I don't pretend to know a lot about life in Russia, but it seems bleak to me. There is a saying we have about russians: they are the friendliest and nicest people, but as a nation they're quite nasty. Here's me hoping that there's some way to get that niceness out on a global scale. :)

    Sorry for all the rambling, I hope at least some points are understandable.

    792:

    I largely agree with Pigeon and Bill. Not intrinsically negative, though sometimes with that effect. Just a matter of perspective (I think paranoid people live in a much smaller world than I do, and while I try to avoid being patronising about that their worst efforts to offend can end up simply as childishly cute).

    As for beer - I'd have a beer with most people here. There are regular but relatively (blessedly) infrequent MRA and RWA drive-bys and I would skip those. But Greg and SnU would both be near the top of the list of the ones I'd specifically seek out, though not all of whom I'm so sure would necessarily be keen on nattering with me :)

    793:

    As for beer - I'd have a beer with most people here. ... But Greg and SnU would both be near the top of the list of the ones I'd specifically seek out,

    I have a relative via marriage that seems to be a sober clone of SnU plus some people in my wider social circle like him/her plus an ex boss. I have had enough and still get enough of that personality type already to overflow my plate.

    I'll pass on that one. But if you're selling spectator seats for a GT and SnU matchup ....

    794:

    From a distance it does, but the history lesson drummed into every estonian/latvian/lithuanian pupil studying 20th century history is overwhelmingly that Russia/USSR has invaded/occupied/deported before, has not shown to be trustworthy and in the light of recent events, is showing a lot of aggressiveness. It is very difficult for people to see Russia as a peaceful and reliable neighbor, and I don't think this sentiment is fully the fault of pro-western propaganda. What I am saying in a nutshell is that from the perspective of the Baltic states it's Russia's fault for scaring it's neighbors into NATO.

    ... and I would say that there still would be propaganda in the school curriculum (by "propaganda" I only mean the teaching of certain values and viewpoints – every society on Earth does it and it's perfectly normal). Can't say anything about the curriculum's content as all I know about it comes from Russian media which are not reliable sources on the matter, but I do have very strong suspicion that it's not as anti-Russian as it's painted.

    I would be interested in some more information and your opinion on the much touted problem of ethnic Russians who are left without citizenship after the fall of the USSR. From this side of the fence it looks like they're not so keen on asking for help from Russian government preferring instead to work through the democratic process (the idea seems alien and outrageous to our establishment so there are almost zero reports on this matter). Personally I think that the only sensible solution would be granting the citizenship to those people and recognition of Russian as a second official language in places with significant Russian minority (I am thinking about something like the status of Romansh language in Switzerland and find it mighty strange that Russian government never tried to offer some solution in this vein – <sarcasm>almost like they don't really care about Russians abroad!</sarcasm>).

    Yes, you are right, and I don't know the details. This is another example of seeing things from a distance - from my viewpoint in the Baltics, aggression against Chechniya and Georgia came pretty much out of nowhere. Even if there were issues that sparked conflict, it seems very much that Russia's response was way out of proportion.

    I'd say that the military response was justified in both cases (due to ethnic cleansing being perpetrated in both cases). That's not to mean that it could not be handled better (especially in the case of Chechnya) and both wars have caused no end of suffering to innocent people who were caught in them.

    What I mean by mismanagement is exactly the things you say: nobody in the government even cares about what the populace thinks. I mean things like reliable rule of law, not depending on bribes or personal connections for getting justice. [...]

    I totally agree with that. What's worse, the populace actually sees all that as something normal, as in: "Things have always been this way".

    What I also mean by mismanagement is the way that USSR was governed. Unlike the EU, the member states (i.e. local soviet socialist republics), had little or no control over their governments[...]

    I think one of the reasons some of the republics (the Central Asian ones) were so keen on leaving the USSR was the endemic corruption – if some of the investigations have continued quite a few of current (and some of the already deceased) heads of states in the region would be executed for being corrupt beyond all imagination. The fall of the USSR has allowed them to build their quasi-feudal systems without any interference. So maybe it was more of a power grab by the Party elite...

    I think it is so because if power is concentrated in the hands of too few, they do not have the capability to make complex decisions and therefore a lot of issues are ignored until they become too hot, so the tanks get sent in to mitigate. A solution could be to allow more local autonomy, but then the states could get weird ideas about independence, etc. I am calling it mismanagement, because if Moscow holds almost all the power within USSR, then Moscow is responsible for all the gangs and anti-Russian sentiment and lack of rule of law. And Moscow has repeatedly shown that it either doesn't care or doesn't understand problems to solve them otherwise than in some form of brute force.

    Speaking of the brute force... there were some incidents where it should have been applied (but wasn't) as well as some where it was definitely not needed (but was applied nonetheless). While most of the people have voted to keep the reformed USSR in 1991, the ambition of local elites coupled with indecision and inability to think of the central government have rendered the point moot shortly afterwards.

    By the way, it's also important to note that by perestroika, the big war and Stalin's mass deportations were well within living memory (I have living relatives who were born in Siberia). [...] I don't think we are talking about a sudden flare-up of hatred, but rather a decades-old grudge for the occupying government. I am no way defending attacking someone for their ethnicity, but I understand why they would do it.

    I wouldn't be so quick to talk about occupation. I see it more like some of the local elites have seen the opportunity and managed to seize it. The task was made easier by Yeltsin grabbing as much power as he can while encouraging others to do the same (the move that came back to bite him in the arse when Chechens did exactly that).

    Even then, the regaining of independence for the Baltic states was done very peacefully. For the other states, I dare not comment.

    Must be something to do with the fact that all three Baltic states were never fully integrated even in the days of the Russian Empire. What was going on in the Caucasus was downright nasty though...

    I read an interesting opinion piece on that written by a Russian emigré in Estonia (Andrey Kuzichkin). Basically he said that the people ruling Russia now have themselves grown up totally within the USSR and Cold War mentality and it has greatly shaped their thinking, thus the general distrust and failure to communicate with the West. He said that the Russia of today is drifting further away from the Russia which had Pushkin, Dostoyevski and other greats, because this sort of thinking is not valued in the society anymore. So what I see is that a lot of smart people emigrate and the rich simply don't care, because money offers protection. I don't pretend to know a lot about life in Russia, but it seems bleak to me. There is a saying we have about russians: they are the friendliest and nicest people, but as a nation they're quite nasty. Here's me hoping that there's some way to get that niceness out on a global scale. :)

    That about sums my view of the current situation. There's only one correction: First, I think it's not drifting away as much as it's drifting backwards. Second... wait, that's two corrections! Anyway, the second one is that the money now offer no protection. It's back to 17th century when the Tsar was the only one in the whole country who could be considered free. As the recent string of high-profile arrests in the government (and the low-profile living of certain oligarchs) shows, you are only protected until you fall from the Tsar's grace. Third... wait... damn you, Monty Python!.. well, anyway, the Cold War mentality isn't something exclusive to Russian government only. Quite a few politicians in the West seem all too eager to fall back to the comfortable and familiar patterns. So that's like the marriage made in heaven, only instead of the happy pair there's a bunch of arseholes in suits. Oh, and there's a fourth as well: life is not bleak despite all that. We have quite a tradition of survival and even thriving despite our government's best efforts.

    795:

    ''... and I would say that there still would be propaganda in the school curriculum (by "propaganda" I only mean the teaching of certain values and viewpoints – every society on Earth does it and it's perfectly normal).''

    It's actually a LOT worse than that - it's slanted to the point of being effectively false. Let's ignore the facts that Russia has suffered as badly from invasions from the west (including Poland) as eastern Europe has from invasions from Russia and concentrate on what guybrush said.

    Yes, it was true before 1991 but, from 1991 to 1999, Russia was both withdrawing from its satellites and begging for closer links with the west, but was repeatedly, publicly and offensively rejected by NATO and even the EU (largely because of the UK), and the former made it clear that it wanted Russia as an enemy. NATO broke its promise not to expand up to the Russian border, but that wasn't the real problem - it was that it kept installing missile bases etc. pointed at Moscow (Poland being the best example) and attempting to blockade Russia (including by trying to overthrow Assad).

    http://imgur.com/gallery/UzaEGyw

    The Russians finally got sick of that, and appointed Putin as a strong man to stand up to NATO. The Baltic states are merely collateral damage in the second cold war. Russia's behaviour in Chechnya was disgraceful, I agree, and Russia is a pretty loathesome state, but it is flatly false to say that it has been either expansionist or aggressive since 1991. If you read the relatively neutral press (including Reuters), you will see that its actions in Georgia were a response and not an initiation. Similarly in Crimea.

    796:

    Are you talking the Time of Troubles in the early 17th Century? If you are referring to 1920, I am just going to shake my head sadly at you.

    797:

    Just to elaborate lest you think this is simply nationalist bickering. In 1919, the Soviets did not see themselves as the new embodiment of Russia's imperialist project. They still believed they were an international Marxist revolution that happened to be headquartered in Moscow. They were attempting to spread the Revolution in "Poland," partly as an end in itself, but also as a bridge to the real prize: integrating with the working class struggle in Germany and realizing Marx' true vision, the triumph of an existing industrial proletariat under the conditions he predicted were necessary for real socialism. The industrial base and know-how of the German working class combined with the arms and numbers of the Russian Soviet would spark the global overthrow of capitalism.

    On the other hand, Poland was in a liquid state trying to find its true borders and finalize its political structure/culture. It was working from a diagram of modern nationalism; so it could not look to actual pre-partition Poland, which was a sprawling multi-ethnic empire. When war broke out with the Soviets, Poland did not even formally have an army yet. (Poland's romantic nationalist epic takes place in Lithuania. You can laugh, but England's takes place in Wales and the English are the villains.)

    You can cannot characterize the anarchic border skirmishes that flared up from both sides as an invasion of "Russia" "from Poland." You certainly cannot characterize Trotsky's massive, clunky incursion into the West as an invasion by the Poles either.

    798:

    Out of curiosity - is that you mansplaining Russian near-abroad policy to a Baltic native?

    799:

    I would be interested in some more information and your opinion on the much touted problem of ethnic Russians who are left without citizenship after the fall of the USSR. From this side of the fence it looks like they're not so keen on asking for help from Russian government preferring instead to work through the democratic process (the idea seems alien and outrageous to our establishment so there are almost zero reports on this matter). Personally I think that the only sensible solution would be granting the citizenship to those people and recognition of Russian as a second official language in places with significant Russian minority (I am thinking about something like the status of Romansh language in Switzerland and find it mighty strange that Russian government never tried to offer some solution in this vein – almost like they don't really care about Russians abroad!).

    I will speak what I know of the situation in Estonia. Out of 1.3 million people roughly 300 000 identify as ethnic Russians, an increasing bunch of them having been born in Estonia (which IIRC means they get citizenship) and a decreasing bunch of them with 'grey passports' - mostly older people who did not apply for Russian citizenship and currently have no official citizenship (thus the grey-colored passports). It is possible to apply for Estonian citizenship, but the requirement is some fluency in the language. Elementary education up to 9th grade (total is 12) is provided in both Russian and Estonian, although the quality of it tends to be worse than in all-Estonian schools, because teachers get shit pay and it is way more difficult getting a good teacher with Estonian AND Russian fluency in addition to being capable in the subject matter. Most of this work is done by aging Soviet-era teachers and there's already difficulties finding replacements.

    The future for young Russian-speaking people is either a) using EU passport to head for greener pastures (prerequisite: education), b) learning enough Estonian and somewhat integrate (prerequisite: language) and c) end up in a very disadvantaged situation with neither Estonian fluency nor education.

    I think until the Tallinn riots in 2007, most estonians were pretty ignorant about the situation of russians living in Estonia. It was the tyranny of the majority: for a lot of time after the collapse of USSR the idea was that now the country is for estonians and others should adapt or leave. After all, Russia is right next door so it's not like there's nowhere to go. The parties in power largely ignored the russian vote, and it was pretty much political suicide to even try accomodating them, because estonians would feel threatened. As I said, life under the USSR was pretty fresh in many people's memories, and nobody wanted anything that even seemed as a step back to that. 2007 was a sort of awakening - it turned out that a lot of russians were pretty unhappy about their lives and were also largely cut off by the language barrier - they did not follow Estonian news channels, but rather got their information from Russia. So something like what's going on in the American midwest vs coastal areas. Geographically it's also similar - in Estonia, the eastern areas around Narva have the highest ethnic russian population and are also in the worst state with regard to life quality. Also, most jobs are factory or coal mining, which are going to take a lot of hits from automation and fracking/renewables. Couple that with shitty education, and you get a problem waiting to happen.

    As for solutions, I think the only way at this point is to add more quality education - estonians need to speak better Russian and russians need to speak better Estonian. Luckily the current government has committed to exactly that - taking out huge loans in order to increase teacher pay to 120% of the average salary. Enough time has passed so that people are no longer so twitchy about considering making life better for the russian minority. Especially considering that a very big bunch of them have been born in Estonia and you can't really call them evil immigrants or occupiers anymore.

    800:

    I don't dispute that what I have been taught in history lessons is a one-sided narrative and that the news I read are also pretty slanted. With that being said..

    I do not agree with this point of view painting Russia as the victim. There is a reason why you don't immediately trust what is essentially the same bunch of people after they have (quite senselessly and brutally) occupied your country for 50 years. It is beyond utopian from Russia to expect forgiveness in such little time. If Russia does not understand this, then can it really be a trustworthy partner or is just pretending to be good?

    If you want to start going back in history looking for broken promises, I can give you a few: the first promise Russia broke was the Treaty of Tartu, broken first by the de-facto occupation during WW2, then during post-WW2 Soviet occupation and finally, when Estonia broke from the USSR, not honoring the border specified in the treaty, due to which a part of Estonia was lost to Russian Federation. Not to mention that in the treaty, Russia also agreed to return some museological archives, which it has not done. To this day, the golden rule for businesses selling to Russia is to ask money first.

    With regard to Ukraine/Crimea and Georgia being responses, not initiations.. I will repeat my point about mismanagement - all these places were formerly under control of the USSR. Moscow, or their appointed people ran things, often even after the USSR collapsed. Their policies of deportations and labor force transfer (300k russians did not all voluntarily come to Estonia) created the mess. That's what I call mismanagement. The USSR/Russia did start this trashcan fire and is not able or willing to put it down by other means than tanks, and crucially: it is not willing to admit that it's not up to the task. The only way Russia could be a victim in this is if the people and the mentality in charge has changed, but no hard evidence points toward that.

    Nobody (not even the insane) in the Baltic states wants a war with Russia, we want to be safe from Russia.

    801:

    IIRC, didn't a lot of Russians move just-over the then-internal border to what was the Estonian-SSR, because the OGPU/NKVD/MGB/KGB were noticeably less oppressive than in Russia, proper? Didn't Shostakovitch have an Estonian Dacha ( correct me if mistaken, please? ) etc ... Come the revolution, things changes somewhat. But, the Estonians quite-understandable mistake was to not realise that those ethnic Russians, like them, did not want a return to the Status quo ante ??

    802:

    I didn't say that Russia was purely a victim, I explicitly said that it WAS aggressive before 1991 (though, even then, there are two sides to the story), and I also said that the Baltic states were and are caught in the middle. My point was that Gorbachev and Yeltsin attempted to reverse the USSR imperialism, and NATO's response was to treat this as an opportunity to expand the USA's hegemony right up to Russia's borders. And THAT is why the Russians elected Putin, and why Putin has taken a stand.

    God alone knows your best approach to being safe from Russia (which I agree is a well-justified concern), but acting as a platform for a NATO missile and naval bases, and (most likely to trigger WWIII) blockades. You would know better than I, but my impression is that the Baltic states have so far NOT gone down that path (though Poland has). Take a look at the following, to see the issue, and remember how Russia responded to Operation Barbarossa:

    https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/media/csis/pubs/pm_0216.pdf http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/polish-and-baltic-hopes-for-permanent-nato-bases-frustrated-by-1997-agreement-with-russia/article20343316/

    Most of the active operations against Russia have been on the southern flank - look at the more balanced western sources (e.g. Reuters, the New York Times) for evidence that the term 'active operations' is not too strong, and that has even been admitted by senior NATO and USA generals and politicians. The borderline breaches of the Montreux agreement (combined with the attempt to expel Russia from its only external bases, in Syria) were the most serious, until the externally-sponsored and rabidly anti-Russian illegal coup in Ukraine, the speed with which it was backed by the west, and the way that the USA and its acolytes have rejected all of Russia's requests for international mediation. That's all documented in the western press, too.

    The point is that threatening Russia further is precisely the worst thing to do, because it has nowhere left to retreat to. You in the Baltic states are completely irrelevant to either side in this context, except as potential weapons bases. Sorry, but that's reality. And PLEASE remember Operation Barbarossa.

    803:

    Oops. After "but acting as a platform for a NATO missile and naval bases, and (most likely to trigger WWIII) blockades" add "is not it".

    804:

    Thank you and Nowhereland Chronist for a very informative conversation; I know I've learned a lot.

    805:

    My point was that Gorbachev and Yeltsin attempted to reverse the USSR imperialism, and NATO's response was to treat this as an opportunity to expand the USA's hegemony right up to Russia's borders. And THAT is why the Russians elected Putin, and why Putin has taken a stand.

    From my perspective, that summary is highly inaccurate. It confuses correlation and causation, for a start. It's also amusing to see you tell an Estonian what the Russians think, especially as you conveniently ignore those facts which don't play to the "poor innocent Russia threatened by the nasty American imperialists" meme.

    Putin wasn't elected initially, he was appointed by Yeltsin who was on his way out. He then made damn sure that he stayed in post, by both fair means and foul. Pretty soon, he controls the media, and guess what? It's Nationalism time, and distracting the voters from the fact that the oligarchs and siloviki are robbing them blind.

    You appear to believe that Eastern European nations have no right to self-determination, except as vassal states in the near abroad, "not upsetting the Russian hegemony". That somehow, the correct approach in the 90s would have been to leave them hanging for a decade until Russia could rebuild the Commonwealth of Independent States, if not the USSR, or even (if you listen to the loonies in the Zhirinovsky mould) the pre-1917 Imperial Russia, Grand Duchy of Finland included.

    Why should NATO have refused to accept any new members from Eastern Europe in the mid-90s? Remember, Russia joined the NATO 'Parnership for Peace' program in 1994, just like Ukraine; things went badly wrong once they decided to kick off with Georgia...

    As for the "acting as a platform for NATO missile bases", we've discussed before the fact that those radar bases, and limited number of interceptors under the great-circle route from Iran to the Eastern USA, are absolutely no threat to the validity of the Russian strategic deterrent; particularly as it is Russia that was the only SALT signatory to deploy a working ABM system.

    http://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2016_11/20161104_161104-russia-top5-myths-en.pdf

    806:

    I'd like to second that. It's great to see commentary from perspectives we don't normally get here AND is well informed, rational and civil.

    807:

    Gorbachev and Yeltsin might have attempted to reverse USSR imperialism, but from the perspective of Baltic states, the Russian Federation did really not seem to be that much different. In more abstract terms, the more time passed after 1991, the less we felt that Russia was truly transforming (remember, Yeltsin and Gorbachev were both still Communist Party elite, with all the baggage). This only strengthened our resolve to join the west in the form of EU and NATO. So even if Russia was not aggressive after 1991, it certainly was not friendly.

    From my perspective: Russia wanted too much, too fast, considering the huge loss of goodwill it accumulated during the 20th century. In fact the Putin administration seems to double down on this "why, we did everything right and it was the west who stabbed us in the back". The Baltic states interpret this as "the USSR was cool and good and did nothing wrong". I think it is crucial to note here that if Russia interprets the Baltic states' NATO membership as "NATO offensive encroachment", then it must follow that it has forgotten or is actively ignoring the fact that it's predecessor brutally occupied these countries within living memory and is perfectly capable of doing it again. Because history would tell you that the Baltic states could rightfully be afraid, no? There's to my knowledge no equivalent of the Auschwitz museum in Russia - what does this tell you about the nation's willingness to face it's history?

    With regard to the Ukraine coup, I once again repeat the "mismanagement by USSR" argument. I accept that it may well be the US who sponsored the revolution, but I don't think revolutions just happen out of the blue in a strong state. Therefore conditions had be there for people to support the coup. Who was responsible for managing the territory of Ukraine for most of the 20th century? USSR. Under whose strong influence was Ukraine until the coup? Russia. So to me this situation looks broadly like USSR/Russia did a shitty job at governing and diplomacy, and now when things finally got intense enough, are trying to solve the issues too late and by force.

    I don't think this should be viewed in terms of "NATO encroachment" or "USA hegemony", like people in the Baltic states, Ukraine or Syria are pawns under the CIA or some mastermind control. There is a local history everywhere, and small countries do not want to end up between a rock and a hard place again, so they are forced to choose sides, and right now it really seems that the USA is a safer bet, although with Trump now it seems that they've also decided to move towards living in their own reality.

    @Greg I don't know about russians moving to Estonia to avoid harsh law enforcement, but I know that Estonia and the Baltics were supposedly this sort-of "model state", and free thought and expression was a little bit more tolerated. A lot of russians did and do still have summer houses (dachas) in Estonia. One caveat here is that I don't really know how easily you could move from one state/city to another. IIRC there was some assignment system, i.e. you were assigned to work somewhere and the state provided you a place to live, benefits etc. I don't know how much choice people had in their assignments. I think the estonians' first mistake was assuming that all the russians who remained in Estonia were patriotic and would integrate easily. Second mistake was not regocnizing that now it's the estonians who have become the bullies. Third mistake was allowing the language barrier to form (i.e. estonians and russians not being able to speak to each other). I think this is somewhat understandable, as early governments were really busy with building a democratic state, and this required a lot of hard and fast rules. What I find disgusting now is that those same politicians now refuse to acknowledge that there may be a better way to do things.

    808:

    Thank you both. I am glad that you find it interesting.

    809:

    [...] teachers get shit pay and it is way more difficult getting a good teacher with Estonian AND Russian fluency in addition to being capable in the subject matter. Most of this work is done by aging Soviet-era teachers and there's already difficulties finding replacements.

    I would chalk this up more to the government's unwillingness to tackle the problem (governments anywhere in the world are prone to that, after all) and quite possibly on the Russian diaspora's unwillingness to compromise. Why couldn't they solve the problem by teaching parts of curriculum in Estonian exclusively which would have had an added bonus of making the pupils actually learn the language better, and then having Russian-speaking teachers teach Russian? You know, the way they do it in Chinese private schools where the teaching body may be composed of Western and Chinese teachers? Or was it the law that prevented this sort of arrangement (I remember hearing something in that vein as well)? They even had something like that in Siberia where the whole class would be taught Buryat regardless of the pupils' ethnicity and the policy was met very favorably by Russian parents (and that's in the region where they have some pretty nasty race- and ethnicity-related tensions).

    As for solutions, I think the only way at this point is to add more quality education - estonians need to speak better Russian and russians need to speak better Estonian.

    Agreed. And if the current government really is working on integrating the Russians into society it explains nicely the deafening silence on the matter in our media. It's bad for propaganda (less chances to paint Estonian government as rabid nationalists) but it's definitely good for Estonia (and that's something I can easily live with). Anyway anyone who wanted to leave Estonia did just that years ago so the people who are left have made their choice clear. Both sides of the debate will have to reach some sort of compromise, but that's not that great a price to pay for having a working country. And we Russians can be really good when it comes to integration as it has been demonstrated repeatedly. I expect the older generation to be more stubborn, but aren't they everywhere?

    810:

    I do not agree with this point of view painting Russia as the victim. There is a reason why you don't immediately trust what is essentially the same bunch of people after they have (quite senselessly and brutally) occupied your country for 50 years.

    * stupid mode ON You mean Georgians (Stalin), Ukrainians (Khruschev), or maybe those regiments from Latvia who took part in the October Revolution? stupid mode OFF *

    But idiotic jokes aside, it's wrong to equal people of the country with it's government. And it's not like we had a choice in the USSR (I still remember the elections where there was only one pre-selected candidate on the pre-sealed ballot – people just had to stuff it into the urn). But then the human race is prone to choosing the easiest solution and quite often it is to blame somebody for everything bad in their lives (enemy of choice in Russia was until recently the State Department of the USA who were apparently responsible for all the bad roads in Russia).

    It is beyond utopian from Russia to expect forgiveness in such little time. If Russia does not understand this, then can it really be a trustworthy partner or is just pretending to be good?

    Erm... No, it's not. Endlessly recycling the past as a rationale for today's actions leads to mighty unpleasant consequences. Believe me, I know what I am speaking about – it's exactly what I see in Russia right now. So – no, we will not be apologizing endlessly. At the same time I do believe that our government must recognize the atrocities that were committed in Soviet times for what they were: A crime against all the people and ethnicities who were caught in the machine, be they Estonian, Russian, Buryat, Polish or German. There is no shame and/or weakness in that recognition and in apologizing for that, but there is endless shame and hypocrisy in keeping quiet about the crimes committed (or even defending them). The current policy of glossing over all the repressions is unacceptable and indefensible (but it allows for that simple "us-vs-them" narrative of our policy makers). At least they don't try to paint Molotov-Ribbentrop pact as something positive (yet?)...

    [...] Ukraine/Crimea and Georgia [...] I will repeat my point about mismanagement - all these places were formerly under control of the USSR.

    Now, the degree of central control in all those national Republics was different. While it was strong in the Ukraine, Caucasus and Central Asia were more or less controlled by local elites (they had to toe the party line but had much more freedom in their actions). Add to that the Yelstsin's call for everyone to take as much sovereignity as they can and the "disputes" were inevitable. As no real replacement was offered to Soviet ideology, the vacuum was rapidly filled with nationalism and quite a few local wars were the result (Transnistria, Karabakh, Abkhasia, South Ossetia). It was more like the existence of the USSR was keeping these from happening.

    And speaking of Ukraine... I still blame the post-USSR Ukrainian elites for most of that fiasco. Even before they have started changing their governments like they were soiled diapers, the country was split into two parts. While the Eastern Ukraine was quite moderate and favoiured cooperating with Russia (not becoming a part of Russia!), the Western Ukraine was more nationalistic. Sadly, some politicians in the Ukraine have decided that rabid nationalism would make for a nice ideology. Basically everything that happened since first Maidan was not some echo of USSR's mismanagement but was directly caused by this East-West split. Oh, I've seen numerous claims that Yanukovich was Putin's creature, that he was pro-Russian... Nope. He was strictly pro-Yanukovich and being such a self-serving arsehole he managed to make East-West split into the full-blown civil war. The problem is, the bunch of arseholes that replaced him are no better. And heavy-handed intervention of the Russian government did nothing to defuse the situation (throwing some buckets of petrol on the burning house is not a viable firefighting technique). But then in that mess everybody is guilty – Yanukovich, Poroshenko, Putin, USA and EU, the separatist governments and nationalist militias... The only innocents are common people of Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

    As for Crimea... well, I do believe that the referendum was not rigged. After all it was a part of Russia for much longer time than it was a part of Ukraine; Ukrainian government has failed repeatedly for the last decade to govern (at least that's what I have heard from quite a few Ukrainians); ethnic tensions remained unresolved (some Crimean Tatars were quite hostile to Russians living there – blaming your neighbor is easier and safer than blaming the dictator that have deported you) – it all may have swayed the public sentiment easily. I don't know enough about the situation to have any idea of better solution and I do think that Ukrainian government is partially to blame for the whole mess. For example the first thing they did was to roll back the only piece of Yanukovich legacy that was actually making sense – granting to local legislatures the power to adopt Russian as a regional second language – basically telling half the country to shut up and suck it. Of course it would be unfair to blame Ukrainian government for everything (no matter what I think about referendum itself it does not cancel the fact that there was military operation carried out within the border of another country without the consent of that country), but they are partially to blame for all that happened.

    So when we combine the extremely heavy-handed (over)reaction of Putin's government, the terminal stupidity of Ukrainian government (I read their statements to the press sometimes – in Ukrainian sources, of course – and they sound worse than anything Russian media could possibly invent... and judging by those statements they never ever intended to implement Minsk accords) and everybody else involved having some shady agenda... when we combine all that we get this mess.

    To sum it all up: I do believe that many of the conflicts in the ex-USSR were caused by politicians trying to unite the nation via distrust and/or hatred, said hatred being directed either at Russians or – in the case of Russia – at the outside world. But this is not a viable way to run a country – blaming the others have never solved any problem (and it would not this time.

    811:

    Well, the history of Eastern Europe is a complete mess. I have relatives who were killed by ordinary Estonians even before the Germans could lend their helping hand. Soviet occupancy was minor issue compared to that. And Soviet occupancy was a nightmare.

    I do, actually, symphatize with the Russian point of view. According to some records, NATO actually agreed not to get new members near Russian borders. I do not know whether that is true, but it very well might be. The reason being nuclear weapons when USSR collapsed.

    I am personally old enough to have some knowledge about USSR (Soviet Union). It was a real monster. After that I had really positive attitude to EU and USA. And western countries in general.

    Unfortunately the western system turned out to be at least as corrupt as the Party.

    812:

    "Basically everything that happened since first Maidan was not some echo of USSR's mismanagement but was directly caused by this East-West split."

    Right. What I don't know is who the hell orchestrated the coup - my GUESS is is that it was the corrupt gangsters that Yanukovich was elected to clean up (as distinct from the ones that he supported!), but it is horribly reminiscent of previous CIA operations. And we know that it was orchestrated.

    "And heavy-handed intervention of the Russian government did nothing to defuse the situation"

    Right. They were clearly caught on the hop, and reacted far too hastily.

    It is not clear what they could/should have done, though, given that the illegal regime seemed to support reneging on the treaty with Russia and turning Sebastopol into a NATO (i.e. USA) base. Kennedy threatened nuclear war over FAR less! Russia simply could not afford to let that happen. At least as reported in the western press, Russia was begging for international action, which was flatly rejected by the USA/NATO/UK.

    813:

    One of the funny issues in the Ukraine/Russia mess is that when USSR collapsed the purchasing power was the same in Russia, Ukraine and the Baltic States. Currently the purchasing power of the Russians is about three times more than the Ukrainian one. The Estonian purchasing power is now about 10-15% more than the Russian one. On average, of course.

    In other words, Ukraine is a complete disaster in every measure. Even the Russians after the Jeltsin's kleptocracy and Putin's inefficient cronyism are three times more affluent than the Ukrainians. Estonians show that you could do even better than the Russians.

    814:

    I would not go as far as to call the USSR a monster (it had quite a few good sides, after all), and I still see it's collapse as a tragedy. The better outcome would be for it to reform becoming in the end something like EU – a union of democratic independent countries with some supranational body governing it to some extent (IIRC that was the plan Gorbachev had in mind around 1991)... but it did not happen. With Gorbachev as a head of state we should be grateful the mess was not much bigger and bloodier as the man was completely out of touch with reality (and he still was in 1995 – still trying to blame "them" for everything that happened). I have seen the accounts about NATO's promise not to expand too, but it seems to me that it was just too tempting to bully the fallen adversary. And as the result we see the resurgence of Cold War rhetoric on both sides – looks like politicians and generals are actually more comfortable that way, when you have an adversary you can define in familiar terms and not some nebulous entity like international terrorism. And the fate of Iraq, Libya and Yugoslavia did little to instill optimism... Add to this the hurt feeling when after the collapse of the Union it turned out that nobody cared about us, throw in some robber barons and then present people with someone who promises to clean up the mess, wait a decade and a half – and here's the situation we have today.

    815:

    "I would not go as far as to call the USSR a monster (it had quite a few good sides, after all), and I still see it's collapse as a tragedy."

    I have mixed feelings for USSR. It was a horrible monster, IMHO. But it forced the Western World to provide something that was definitely better.

    The West did provide, for some time. After the collapse of USSR the elites of the West considered the threat gone. After the disappearance of USSR the Western democracies have turned to the Beige Dictatorship and complete disregard of democracy.

    In my honest opinion it was the threat of communism that made the West so great. After the collapse of USSR the West has turned back to the basic instincts of capitalism and cronyism. For the common man even fascism is better.

    To be honest, I currently think that the collapse of USSR was a tragedy. The West should have an adversary. China is not a suitable one because it is currently a classical plutocracy.

    816:

    What if the West became the beacon of international socialism, standing tall in the saddle against evil kleptocracies? Probably same result in the end.

    We don't need an adversary. We need to grow up and do better without the need for an adversary.

    817:

    Unfortunately the western system turned out to be at least as corrupt as the Party.| Errr ... no [ Or not until Trumpolini has been POTUS for a year or two ] I remember standing, right up against a sign that said: "Acthtung Liebesgefahr MINEN"

    I even have a photo, with the DDR-watchtower in the background ....

    818:

    What I don't know is who the hell orchestrated the coup - my GUESS is is that it was the corrupt gangsters that Yanukovich was elected to clean up (as distinct from the ones that he supported!), but it is horribly reminiscent of previous CIA operations. And we know that it was orchestrated.

    Nice logic. Insist on calling it a "coup", throw in an implication that the CIA was behind it, insist that it was orchestrated. Heavy on the implication, absent on proof.

    Out of curiosity, were the overthrows of Ceaucescu, Honecker, Jakes each a "coup" as well?

    819:

    In my honest opinion it was the threat of communism that made the West so great. After the collapse of USSR the West has turned back to the basic instincts of capitalism and cronyism. For the common man even fascism is better.

    I lived in Eastern Europe as a child, during the 1970s. It was interesting to note that the "approved" English-language fiction available was Charles Dickens; the effort was to imply that the bourgeousie were corrupt, the workers downtrodden, capitalism red in tooth and claw.

    ...except that the "common man" had a really crappy time of it where we were. For a Socialist Workers' Paradise, there was a seriously large amount of corruption; 'key money' was demanded by civil servants regarding cars, or apartments. There was rampant cronyism, and no mechanism to challenge it. If you were a Party member, you lived better.

    Political opponents in the UK don't end up being arrested, their rallies don't result in beatings, inconvenient journalists don't end up dead. We haven't had the same person in charge for sixteen years, our Prime Ministers don't generally build themselves dachas that cost hundreds of millions, and their earnings and expenses are a matter of public scrutiny.

    As for "Fascism", that's just a depressing ignorance of history. Look at Argentina during the Dirty War; we don't see black Ford Falcons picking up dissidents by the thousands and taking them away to be tortured and killed. Try being a common man and a union organiser in 1974 Greece, or 1978 Argentina - and ask them whether they think 2016 Britain is a worse place to live. Ask yourself whether 1973 Chile was preferable for Victor Jara.

    And things haven't worsened here since the Cold War. The UK is less deferential, more skeptical; politicians are held up to more criticism now than ever before, by an electorate that has far more access to information. What would have been hidden before, is exposed now. While we worry about the beige dictatorship, we know only too well that the 1970s were worse.

    Seriously, I doubt that if you gave the "common man" a free choice between the USSR of the 1980s, Russia today, or the UK today, that they'd choose the USSR over the UK.

    820:

    With Gorbachev as a head of state we should be grateful the mess was not much bigger and bloodier as the man was completely out of touch with reality (and he still was in 1995 – still trying to blame "them" for everything that happened)

    I met Professor John Erickson only a couple of times, and listened to him speak a few more. He was rather complimentary about Gorbachev, disappointed with Yeltsin, and positively furious about Pavel Grachev...

    We invited him to speak as a guest in our Mess, then took him out to dinner - I was the abnormal Lieutenant desperate to sit next to him :) He pointed out that Gorbachev generally worked 18-hour days in his efforts to "fix" what was going on. He may not have succeeded, he may have been out of touch (after all, he was an insider) but he appears to have been honest.

    821:

    The party for the newly inaugurated prime minister (Estonian Centre Party) actually has a co-operation agreement with none other than Jedinaja Rossija, Putin's party. There's a lot of debate on whether that is a superficial thing meant as some 'certificate of authenticity' to russian voters or is a more sinister sign of Jedinaja Rossija actually pulling some strings now. I appreciate the change of government and the representation that russians have in Estonia now, but it makes me a bit wary. Especially given that some members of the Centre Party are quite openly relaying Putin's propaganda (i.e. a EU parliament visit to Assad and appearances in Russian TV).

    822:

    It is not my intention to equate the Russian people with it's government, I'm sorry if it sounded like that. My point was that the collapse of the USSR did not bring substantial change to it's government - it only ended up being controlled by a slightly different, but still the same self-serving elite.

    Of course you're right that it's wrong to endlessly recycle the past, but I am here explaining the 90s mentality of Baltic states, which was not rational, but very much and emotionally driven to ensure their safety and independence. All this is currently being validated by Putin's actions and rhetoric. Nobody (except the most rabid nationalists) is expecting reparations, but acknowledging and apologising at least once would be nice. IIRC Russia's official stance is still that the Baltics voluntarily joined the union.

    I completely and wholeheartedly agree that both our governments should look at their respective histories, apologise and try to do better in the future, and that everybody suffered under the USSR.

    Now, the degree of central control in all those national Republics was different. While it was strong in the Ukraine, Caucasus and Central Asia were more or less controlled by local elites (they had to toe the party line but had much more freedom in their actions). Add to that the Yelstsin's call for everyone to take as much sovereignity as they can and the "disputes" were inevitable. As no real replacement was offered to Soviet ideology, the vacuum was rapidly filled with nationalism and quite a few local wars were the result (Transnistria, Karabakh, Abkhasia, South Ossetia). It was more like the existence of the USSR was keeping these from happening.

    The degree of central control may have been different, but I stand by my point that Moscow is ultimately responsible for the conditions. To my knowledge, the elites in control were still appointed and vetted by Moscow. Maybe I am wrong viewing this as an analogy to where a CEO appoints department managers in a company? I agree though that the USSR for all it's faults was a better place for many former states, and could have eventually been formed into something like the EU. Why there was a ideological vacuum after it's collapse is probably because of the Party more valuing people who were good at gambling the system rather than people who were good at making the system better and more effective (not to say, people-friendly).

    823:

    And speaking of Ukraine... I still blame the post-USSR Ukrainian elites for most of that fiasco.

    I think I strongly have to agree with that, although gut feeling tells me that the post-USSR Ukrainian elites were also elites in late USSR. The time of privatisation during Estonia's independence restoration saw a lot of juicy businesses and factories go to well-placed former communists, and a lot of people got rich in the confusion. I would be surprised if Ukraine did not share this fate. Those elites still carry the mentality that brought them success in the USSR, although they do die off or modernise. With Estonia it is less of an issue because it's a small country and there was nothing big to take, also our people are reasonably well off, so it is more difficult for wealth to influence things.

    824:

    Unfortunately the western system turned out to be at least as corrupt as the Party.| Errr ... no [ Or not until Trumpolini has been POTUS for a year or two ] I remember standing, right up against a sign that said: "Acthtung Liebesgefahr MINEN"

    I even have a photo, with the DDR-watchtower in the background ...

    Well, there were some partners of the US who looked at the Berlin all and thought that there were some nice ideas. In the second half of the 1990s there were reports about Samsung producing some fully-automated machine gun turrets for "border defense". I was quite shocked at the time as the idea was lifted from the Berlin Wall installation... and Samsung turrets were designed to fire indiscriminately at anything human-sized that moved. No reports about actual installations in the Korean DMZ though.

    825:

    By the way, one more tidbit that may give some perspective: the last deployments of the Russian army left the Baltics in 1994. That's roughly three years after independence from the USSR, and IIRC required a lot of behind-the-scenes persuading to get done.

    826:

    The time of privatisation during Estonia's independence restoration saw a lot of juicy businesses and factories go to well-placed former communists, and a lot of people got rich in the confusion.

    It was different in Russia (and IIRC in the Ukraine). While the apparatchicks have made a grab for the assets, they were soon replaced by even shady characters (sometimes it was organized crime and just as often "self-made men" coming from nowhere). In the case of Ukraine they have ousted ex-Party officials from power quite early (which was a good idea) and started courting the rabid nationalists (which was a seriously bad idea). And the inability of those apparatchicks who'd grabbed the assets to effectively control and develop them has dealt the huge blow to the economy. So the Party managed to mismanage things from beyond the grave... as it did in Russia where ex-apparatchicks were just as unable to manage the assets they stole.

    827:

    The party for the newly inaugurated prime minister (Estonian Centre Party) actually has a co-operation agreement with none other than Jedinaja Rossija, Putin's party. There's a lot of debate on whether that is a superficial thing meant as some 'certificate of authenticity' to russian voters or is a more sinister sign of Jedinaja Rossija actually pulling some strings now.

    Maybe there's the third option: It's the only party in Russia worth cooperating with if you want to achieve something. Just Russia is a clone with slightly different rhetoric, communists are anything but, LDPR is not something you can mention in the polite society and all the others are insignificant. And there's the added bonus of demonstrating the willingness to cooperate despite the ideological difference (there are bound to be differences as the only ideology United Russia was able to procure was "Support the President! Whee!").

    828:

    Right. Russia has a horrible government and is in a pretty bad state (when was that not true?), but Ukraine has been a failing state for a long time.

    829:

    Samsung have been advertising them, with cheesy music and everything.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oa08Gbn6iqs

    830:

    Yes. I don't know about the details of that, though I do know that, even then, the USA/NATO/UK were doing their best to make Russia feel threatened by the possibility of them putting bases into the Baltic states. As I said, neither side gives a damn about you, except as potential weapons bases. Sorry, but that's the Great Game, redux :-(

    Incidentally, the last deployments of the USA army have not yet left Germany (or the UK).

    831:

    Nope, Russia has great government that cares about freedom, it's policies have led to unprecedented economic growth and Russia's economy had long since shed it's dependence on resource exports. It's just the Russia of our government is not the same Russia that everybody else lives in. Judging by this being a fairly common occurrence through the years, there must be some portal to the parallel world in Kremlin?..

    Actually every example of the politician talking as if they live in some other reality makes me wonder how much of that is just plain ol' lying and how much is their personal reality bubble affecting their perception?.. For I do not believe that the much-talked filter bubble problem applies only to the electorate... Add to that the fact that those with money/power usually tend to lose their touch with reality (like this guy and many others across the globe) and it's outright scary. Like in "a bunch of clueless man-children have access to nuclear launch codes" scary...

    832:

    Quite. I generally ignore everything a politician or follower says about their own party/government, and half of what their opposition says. That seems to match the world I live in fairly closely.

    833:

    I don't know about the details of that, though I do know that, even then, the USA/NATO/UK were doing their best to make Russia feel threatened by the possibility of them putting bases into the Baltic states.

    The facts disagree with you.. If you don't agree, please explain which of the following constitute 'threatening behaviour' given the invitation of Russian observers to all major military exercises (CFE treaty), mutually-agreed caps on military equipment, and the ability to mount spot checks.

    1991, the USA actually warns Gorbachev about the August coup, two months in advance 1991, Russia and NATO form the North Atlantic Co-operation Council 1994, Russia joins the 'Partnership for Peace' program, alongside Ukraine / the Baltic States. 1997, signing of the NATO-Russia Founding Act provides a formal basis for relations 2002, formation of the "NATO-Russia council"

    As for the desire for the 'near abroad' to apply for NATO membership: - Maybe they were still nervous about the possibility of a military coup within Russia, as in 1991 (note that Marshal Yazov, one of the four plot leaders, was employed by and later honoured by Putin). - Maybe they were made more nervous by the refusal of Russia to withdraw its troops from the former Moldovan SSR, and the fact that said troops sided with the separatists in the Transnistrian War. - Maybe they were made more nervous by the early 90s Russian activities in the former Georgian SSR, supporting South Ossetian and Abkhaz nationalists. - Perhaps the sight of Russia attacking Grozny in 1994 had something to do with it. - Maybe it was the 2000 appointment of a President whose first act in power was to flatten Grozny

    ...I generally ignore everything a politician or follower says about their own party/government...

    I'd go further and suggest that you ignore and deny any facts that don't fit with your previously-decided perspective. As feymary is busy pointing out in another thread...

    834:

    "Acthtung Liebesgefahr MINEN"

    That's carrying romance to extremes!

    I suspect it said Lebensgefahr, but maybe not: https://www.amazon.com/Vorsicht-Liebesgefahr-Baccara-German-Cantrell-ebook/dp/B00JING2G6

    835:

    Korrekt!

    Brain fart there.

    836:

    While the apparatchicks have made a grab for the assets, they were soon replaced by even shady characters (sometimes it was organized crime and just as often "self-made men" coming from nowhere)

    It is my understanding that in his youth Stalin was basically the crime boss or similar where he lived. So maybe many of the "mafia" in what became the USSR found a home in the "party". Especially under Stalin.

    837:

    As for the desire for the 'near abroad' to apply for NATO membership: - Maybe they were still nervous about the possibility of a military coup within Russia, as in 1991 (note that Marshal Yazov, one of the four plot leaders, was employed by and later honoured by Putin).

    ... and by the end of 1991 it was clear that USSR was dead, Yazov or not.

    - Maybe they were made more nervous by the refusal of Russia to withdraw its troops from the former Moldovan SSR, and the fact that said troops sided with the separatists in the Transnistrian War.

    Half the country want to be independent. Another half wants to be Romanian. Your solution? Also, yes, army base. I don't imply that was the best solution (frosen conflict would still be a conflict), but certainly not the worst. Must be solved somehow? For sure (create Federation/Confederation of Moldova, maybe?)

    - Maybe they were made more nervous by the early 90s Russian activities in the former Georgian SSR, supporting South Ossetian and Abkhaz nationalists.

    ... against Georgian nationalists. Can you spell "ethnic cleansings"? That's what was going on, perpetrated by both sides. And remember, standing in between two sides of the conflict does not work (we have tried it in the USSR). So... another frozen conflict and I see no right choice in this.

    - Perhaps the sight of Russia attacking Grozny in 1994 had something to do with it. - Maybe it was the 2000 appointment of a President whose first act in power was to flatten Grozny

    Ok. Your solution would be?.. Given ethnic cleansings, arsenals of heavy weapons (as in tanks) in the hands of separatists and them being radicalized by Saudi preachers. The main screw-up I see in that fiasco was that they did not just take out the leaders from the very start. With excessive force even. Instead Yeltsin and his bunch of morons have waited until it had grown too big and then used excessive force. Turning what should have been a sting operation followed by police action into a massive clusterfuck does not win the hearts of the people, hence the second war... won by separatists, by the way. Anyway, I do seem to remember some places... like Yugoslavia? Or was it Iraq? Or Afghanistan? Any of those did not scare the new members away.

    I'd say that was mostly irrational anti-Russian sentiment at play as millions of people were suddenly left searching for the new identity. And the easiest answer to the question: "What's wrong with our country?!" usually is: "It's them messing it up!". It's usually the wrong answer, too (so blaming Obama for the state of Russian economy is counterproductive – not that our politicians care). And that sentiment has subsided in most places, what's left is mostly the government rhetoric (but governments rarely know when to stop).

    And one more thing... I'm genuinely interested when I ask for your solutions above and would be grateful if you share your thoughts.

    838:

    The main screw-up I see in that fiasco was that they did not just take out the leaders from the very start

    Be careful - according to Professor Erickson again, that's what happened in 1979. Someone's idiot nephew was sent to do the assessment of the situation in Afghanistan, and claimed that the KGB's Alpha and Zenit teams could solve it all, with some help from the GRU Spetsnaz battalion. Just take out the leaders, we can sort it out.

    Except it didn't. "Don't worry, we just need the Desantnyy and we'll fix it" - so they deployed the rest of Airborne Regiment. But it didn't; so they deployed the rest of the Airborne Division. Except it didn't - so they deployed the 40th Army.

    That month, as an indication of the stresses involved, there were three heart attacks in the Politburo.

    I'd say that was mostly irrational anti-Russian sentiment at play as millions of people were suddenly left searching for the new identity. And the easiest answer to the question: "What's wrong with our country?!" usually is: "It's them messing it up!". It's usually the wrong answer, too

    I absolutely agree. "For every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, plausible, and utterly wrong".

    I also think that there are some political parallels between Russia and the former SSR states, as between England and Scotland. There is the temptation, as you say, to blame everything on the distant centre. There are the promises that "we" are different, are special, will succeed and thrive as an independent nation. Some people believe in the romantic ideal; others believe that Government should be smaller and more local; and some ambitious types believe that it is better to be a big fish in a small pond, than one of many in a big pond.

    I don't believe that Russia's actions were necessarily either deliberate or malicious; it's the same people running things in 1992 or 1994 as in 1990; and it's hard to make the deliberate shift from a Soviet citizen thinking "this is a problem for the USSR" to "it's a Georgian / Moldovan / Ukrainian problem now, we should stay out of it". If you're senior in the Interior Ministry, and you see ethnic Russians being mistreated, it's tempting to support your old friend Pyotr who settled across the border, but just needs some light weapons to defend their village from the Nationalist thugs who you spent the past decade arresting and who are now acting as if they own the place.

    Unfortunately, "something must be done" too often becomes "this is something, we must do it". Especially if your responses have traditionally been... forceful. For instance, the response of mainland UK to civil unrest (and nationalist thugs, etc) was to deploy the Army to Northern Ireland in 1969 - to defend the Roman Catholic minority against Unionist mobs. By the time they had acted robustly (because that response was seen as having worked in Malaya / Kenya) and overreacted with lethal force a few times, the situation turned into a mess that cost thousands of deaths and required twenty-five years even to get to a ceasefire.

    Now, compare 1972 in Northern Ireland with 1972 in the West Bank. Military force has been deployed, lethal force has been used, there is civil unreset. Some of the angrier inhabitants have taken to violent action against the "occupying forces". Fast forward twenty years; the UK has (mostly) learned the lessons of Bloody Sunday, resisted the temptation to "just sort out the leaders, we know where they live", and attempted to follow a legal rather than military path; the police have primacy. Enough of the rational leaders are alive and retain the credibility to agree and enforce a ceasefire. By contrast, the West Bank had had the "grass mown" enough times that the grassroots anger has grown rather than diminished; and there are no leaders with the support to negotiate a ceasefire. See the excellent film "The Gatekeepers".

    I don't think there were any solutions to the problems in Moldova, Georgia, or the Ukraine. They needed time, a local government strong enough to enforce law and order, and enough good people doing their jobs so that the thieves, the thugs, and the opportunists couldn't take over the country. Unfortunately, they didn't have the time to fix things - the USSR broke apart too quickly. This wasn't unique to the USSR - look at Slovenia, Croatia, and Kosovo's attempts to break away from Belgrade, and the misery that followed (for similar reasons).

    Do you think that if Gorbachev had been able to hold on for longer, the break-up might have been more controlled? From here, it is easy to interpret Yeltsin as the man whose desire to seize political power, wrecked any chance of a slow separation. I would be interested to hear your thoughts on that...

    Anyway, as I said before, I don't necessarily believe that the actions that made the SSRs "nervous" were deliberate - I am perfectly willing to believe that they were made by people who thought they were doing the right thing. Unfortunately, having the GRU wandering around in your newly-independent country, arming groups for self-defence and supporting military solutions while the SSR is trying to support political solutions, has to be treated in its worst-case interpretation.

    As my Dad always said, threat assessment has to be based on capabilities and actions, not on stated motives. So it's hardly surprising that the SSRs became nervous enough to join NATO.

    839:

    Be careful - according to Professor Erickson again, that's what happened in 1979. Someone's idiot nephew was sent to do the assessment of the situation in Afghanistan, and claimed that the KGB's Alpha and Zenit teams could solve it all, with some help from the GRU Spetsnaz battalion. Just take out the leaders, we can sort it out.

    Except it didn't. "Don't worry, we just need the Desantnyy and we'll fix it" - so they deployed the rest of Airborne Regiment. But it didn't; so they deployed the rest of the Airborne Division. Except it didn't - so they deployed the 40th Army.

    Oops... that's me being in a hurry. I was meaning to write "out of the picture – detained and put to trial". I do remember Afghanistan and I do realize that assassination would lead to the same (or worse) insurrection we had. The laws were there to try them but instead the re-enactment of Afghan disaster was pursued.

    I also think that there are some political parallels between Russia and the former SSR states, as between England and Scotland. There is the temptation, as you say, to blame everything on the distant centre. There are the promises that "we" are different, are special, will succeed and thrive as an independent nation. Some people believe in the romantic ideal; others believe that Government should be smaller and more local; and some ambitious types believe that it is better to be a big fish in a small pond, than one of many in a big pond.

    I think you've nailed it. Also works to show that humans don't like to learn from the past...

    I don't believe that Russia's actions were necessarily either deliberate or malicious; it's the same people running things in 1992 or 1994 as in 1990; and it's hard to make the deliberate shift from a Soviet citizen thinking "this is a problem for the USSR" to "it's a Georgian / Moldovan / Ukrainian problem now, we should stay out of it". If you're senior in the Interior Ministry, and you see ethnic Russians being mistreated, it's tempting to support your old friend Pyotr who settled across the border, but just needs some light weapons to defend their village from the Nationalist thugs who you spent the past decade arresting and who are now acting as if they own the place.

    Unfortunately, "something must be done" too often becomes "this is something, we must do it". Especially if your responses have traditionally been... forceful. For instance, the response of mainland UK to civil unrest (and nationalist thugs, etc) was to deploy the Army to Northern Ireland in 1969 - to defend the Roman Catholic minority against Unionist mobs. By the time they had acted robustly (because that response was seen as having worked in Malaya / Kenya) and overreacted with lethal force a few times, the situation turned into a mess that cost thousands of deaths and required twenty-five years even to get to a ceasefire.

    Well at least there was something perceived as having worked before. The handling of Chechen wars looked like deliberate replay of everything that was done wrong in Afghanistan.

    Do you think that if Gorbachev had been able to hold on for longer, the break-up might have been more controlled? From here, it is easy to interpret Yeltsin as the man whose desire to seize political power, wrecked any chance of a slow separation. I would be interested to hear your thoughts on that...

    In the case of Gorbachev... the man left the impression of having as strong a spine as a garden slug (I have attended his talk at our university back in 1995). As far as I know his becoming the Secretary General was mostly due to him being relatively young and having no affiliation with any of the factions within Politburo. By 1991 the novelty was wearing off quickly, Gorbachev was scared (he was not able to say "I decided..." – it was "Gorbachev decided..." even in 1995) and the economy was falling apart due to complete absence of coherent reform plan. When you force the aircraft factory to produce shovels (made of titanium alloy!) something clearly is wrong... And hurried dismantling the kolkhoz system without considering the results was downright criminal (our agriculture is still trying to recover from that blow). Also, this little joke had greatly eroded the credibility of Gorbachev's government.

    As for Yeltsin... he may have had some positive programme and he was quite popular (mostly due to him being "not Gorbachev") in the beginning, but in retrospect all that happened looks like a clumsy grab for power.

    The worst part of Gorbachev's legacy is the simplicity with which the history of USSR was re-evaluated. All that was considered good was declared bad and vice versa – basically just the negative image of the Soviet official version. Taking gargantuan dump on everything that was considered sacred did not sit well with many people, paving the way for today's monster of official history (Stalin as a basically good guy who just had no other choice and Nikolay II being venerated as a saint at the same time).

    As my Dad always said, threat assessment has to be based on capabilities and actions, not on stated motives. So it's hardly surprising that the SSRs became nervous enough to join NATO.

    Agreed. Also, it works both ways (after Yugoslavia it's not that easy to believe in NATO being just a club of peace-loving doves). Given that Cold War thinking did not have the time to die out it looks like both sides are just happily returning to the old routine. Surely there are some adjustments, but the rhetoric sounds almost identical to what I read in 1984. Let's hope they'll stop talking about being willing to cooperate and start actually cooperating!

    840:

    after Yugoslavia it's not that easy to believe in NATO being just a club of peace-loving doves

    Indeed. It is also possible to interpret that as a "let's not make the same mistakes we did in Bosnia, let's do things differently"...

    I attended a lecture by General Rose, who had commanded UNPROFOR and attempted to make sense of that particular lunatic asylum. It was fascinating, in the sense that it was a truly UN mission - operate with the consent of the warring parties, focus on the civilians caught in the middle, suffer the propaganda efforts of both sides attempts to bring in external support. If they interfered, the aid convoys would be stopped permanently (as they often were temporarily), and that's lethal for tens of thousands in the context of a Balkan winter

    As a result, those white-painted UN vehicles were limited in their Rules of Engagement; and often had to observe the aftermath of racism combined with thugs and weaponry. I saw the guy who had the bed next to me at school, and who joined up as a regular, escorting Kate Adie and IIRC taking her into report on the Ahmici massacre. That's not to say that the troops always stood by; often they interfered (e.g. the day after they entered Ahmici, a British patrol rescued a column of Muslim civilians being "escorted" by the HVO to an unknown fate); and BRITBAT soon earned the nickname SHOOTBAT; the Scandinavians did similar, and apparently became SHOOTBAT 2. Look up Operation Bollebank...

    I can recommend General Mike Rose's book on the experience for insight behind the propaganda; as well as Milos Stankovic's book "Trusted Mole". Things are perceived to change for the better when UNPROFOR turns into IFOR and SFOR, forgetting that this only happened after the ceasefires were signed.

    So; a couple of years later, the Serbs start to behave in exactly the same way, in Kosovo. Ethnic cleansing starts, Kosovars are being driven across the border with what they can carry. Remember, GCHQ and the NSA are listening to the conversations between civilian leaders and the military...

    The British Brigadier in Macedonia decides unilaterally to start sorting out the chaos that is the response to refugees, and uses his support troops to establish functioning refugee camps. You've got European leaders, mindful of what happens when Serbs do to non-Serbs, watching things repeat themselves. And you've got a narcissist British Prime Minister deciding that he can make his mark on history.

    So; Milosevic is presented with an ultimatum. Stop it, or face military action. He calls the world's bluff, presumably thinking that it will all get neutered in the UNSC (and failing that, he has one of the most highly-regarded air defence organisations of recent history). Oops. Fairly soon, there are a couple of Armoured Divisions parked on the Kosovan border, the bombers are flying over Belgrade, and NATO is talking about mobilising 250,000 troops for a non-compliant entry to Kosovo (I made sure I left my contact details before I went off on my honeymoon; it would be embarrassing if our Rifle Company got mobilised without me). So, Kosovo gains some independence, another bitter civil war is largely avoided, and Tony Blair begins to think that "send in the military" will make him look cool at all those G8 conferences.

    As you say, from a European perspective, it was the right thing to do. From the Russian perspective, of course, "Serbia-Kosovo" has a great deal of similarity to "Russia-Chechnya". Why shouldn't the organs of the state be allowed to deal with criminal elements? If those criminal elements are using force, then shouldn't force be used against them? Why is NATO threatening a Russian-aligned Orthodox nation, again? (The simple answer is that everyone else thinks that Serbia is a kleptocracy with demonstrated genocidal tendencies, who need slapped down hard before people start to copy them).

    All that, and I didn't mention James Blunt ;)

    841:

    As you say, from a European perspective, it was the right thing to do. From the Russian perspective, of course, "Serbia-Kosovo" has a great deal of similarity to "Russia-Chechnya". Why shouldn't the organs of the state be allowed to deal with criminal elements? If those criminal elements are using force, then shouldn't force be used against them? Why is NATO threatening a Russian-aligned Orthodox nation, again? (The simple answer is that everyone else thinks that Serbia is a kleptocracy with demonstrated genocidal tendencies, who need slapped down hard before people start to copy them).

    At the time I was in China (happens to me a lot in the past 20 years or so) so the information came from Chinese and Western sources mostly so I did understand from the start that the goal was not the destruction of Serbia (that was a byproduct) but to stop the atrocities, but the country was devastated in the process. And it's not like them Muslims were all a bunch of fluffy bunnies themselves – far as I know they liked them some ethnic cleansing. Add to this the destruction of civil infrastructure... and the Chinese were really pissed off about that embassy business... But as much as I can see with my limited military training, at least partially it would be the result of sending the army against an insurrection or something similar (the same problem the Chinese have run into in Vietnam, or what we have encountered in Chechnya, or what's going on in Syria... the list goes on).

    But as far as I know there was understanding in Russia that Milosevic was a goddamn dictator and had to go. Maybe it's easier for us to see that in the civil war all sides are wrong as our Civil War had happened not that long ago – there were people still alive in the 1980s who had to live through it or their parents had. The same war would make us wary of foreign interventions, so that had colored the perception of NATO intervention too. Parallels between Kosovo and Chechnya were indeed drawn (mostly along the lines of "Quod licet Iovi non licet bovi, huh?"), but there were no serious attempts to paint Milosevic as a victim. And while there were the usual cretins shouting about NATO being baby-eating monsters (dammit... looks like I'm being unfair to mentally ill people here!), for anybody with half a brain it was clearly not the case. As for the religious card, it was not played that much (we have finally learned that common religion would not automatically make somebody our allies – see Bulgaria's role in WWII as a recent reminder).

    In the aftermath the Kosovo Criminal Court (or whatever it's called) was seen from the start for the political tool it is – but then all such courts are political tools and that fact does not mean that the accused should be automatically acquitted. BTW, I don't remember anyone but Serbs being tried in that court... is it my memory or is it actually so? And the independence of Kosovo was seen as a dangerous precedent and an exercise in hypocrisy (it does look like one when you think about all the frozen conflicts in the ex-USSR) but nothing big came out of it (that was predictable) and now it's actually used as a precedent by the same people who were protesting at the time – and that was predictable as well.

    Anyway we can debate the method but we seem to agree that ethnic/racial/etc cleansings must be stopped as fast as it's possible – with extreme prejudice if needed. The problem is, no matter how we go about it the results would not be pretty. Damned if you do, damned if you don't... Pity the humanity does not use the bonobo conflict resolution model. Sexing the differences away would be much less traumatic.

    All that, and I didn't mention James Blunt ;)

    Ouch! he was all over Hong Kong television for quite a long time (well into 2006). Only afterwards I have learned that he was a soldier and a good one at that. So while I do not like his songs, I do respect him greatly.

    842:

    In the aftermath the Kosovo Criminal Court (or whatever it's called) was seen from the start for the political tool it is – but then all such courts are political tools and that fact does not mean that the accused should be automatically acquitted. BTW, I don't remember anyone but Serbs being tried in that court... is it my memory or is it actually so? And the independence of Kosovo was seen as a dangerous precedent and an exercise in hypocrisy

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Tribunal_for_the_former_Yugoslavia

    The indictees were 70% Serbian; they tried war criminals of all sides - it's just that the Serbs appeared to believe in war crimes as a matter of routine, and let the war criminals off the leash (see Arkan, Mladic, etc). They had the control over the bulk of the Yugoslav Army's resources, and they were initially successful and took ground (and hence prisoners). So, when you look at what they then did with prisoners (Vukovar, Omarska, Srebenica) it's not a surprise that it was seen as deliberate policy.

    The tribunal also implied that the Croat president, Franjo Tudman, would have been indicted alongside Milosevic had he lived long enough (Ahmici); and certainly indicted some Kosovars. The claim of "victor's justice" unsurprisingly comes from Serbian nationalists, in denial of the actions in their name.

    I agree that the whole "recognition of independence" thing is a mess. If you're trying to patch up peace in a disintegrating Federation, the danger is that by doing so you reward the local vocal lunatics. The recognition of Croatian independence by Germany appears to be more idealistic than realpolitik; and it's unsurprising that the first nations to recognise Croatia were Ukraine and Latvia. The rest of the world was worried that recognition would lead to civil war...

    ...if you were being controversial, you could look at the declaration of Israel in 1948 in light of a two-faction civil war within the UN Mandate. Was there any chance of a one-state solution? Could a two-state solution have arrived with less bloodshed? Have we learned much in 70 years?

    843:

    PS The James Blunt reference comes from the fact that he was a Reconnaissance Troop Leader during the NATO move into Kosovo.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incident_at_Pristina_airport

    Russia was concerned that it wasn't being given more responsibility in the new KFOR; and decided to present a fait accompli by driving a column of SFOR vehicles from Bosnia to Kosovo; and act as pathfinders for incoming Russian airborne units that would then land in Pristina

    The solution to this was of course diplomatic. Unfortunately, the diplomatically insensitive SACEUR ordered a more forceful response, and was told to sod off by the British General commanding KFOR. SACEUR was sacked shortly afterwards.

    One problem AIUI was that the Russian troops arrived in Pristina with no logistic support. They'd used almost all their fuel getting there, and were living off the few rations that they'd brought with them (presumably being told "it's OK, the supplies will arrive with the aircraft"). A few BTR were no threat, whatever Wesley Clark thought, and were rather happy to see the Norwegian and U.K. forces turn up...

    844:

    You put it well and Litvinenko's and Felshtinsky's book on the subject of Russian politics says it all. I don't know if recent events are part of a greater plot, I really hope not. In your post Beige Dictatorship you asked for any thoughts. My immediate one is we must expand the franchise asap to younger voters and maybe that's the grass roots movement, maybe that will do it. I don't know what I would have initially thought reading the post back in 2008 - to be honest I think I would have said isn't that being a touch too worried by things, haven't they always been like that. I am wrong. Worrying times. But to quote a Leonard Cohen (what I've read in The Observer) 'there is a crack in everything, that's how the light gets in'. And there's always hope.

    845:

    The indictees were 70% Serbian; they tried war criminals of all sides[...]

    Yes, a quick check confirms that. They rarely mentioned KLA indictees in Russian media, and I just forgot. So it is my memory then.

    The model "divorce" of the federation would be the split of Czechoslovakia, but judging by the history since the end of WWI they were a lucky exception...

    As for Israel... well, for me it's another example of the mess that arises from good intentions. I do admire the Jews' ability to survive against all odds but the whole idea looks unworkable for me – you have to have cooperation of both sides for something like this...

    846:

    PS The James Blunt reference comes from the fact that he was a Reconnaissance Troop Leader during the NATO move into Kosovo.

    Yes, I got it ;) Came as something of a shock to me when I found out that whiny pop singer is actually an army officer and a good one at that.

    And don't dismiss the BTRs lightly. If those were BTR-80s (and I think they were), their main gun is 14,5 mm KPVT which is basically a downsized autocannon using the round developed for anti-tank rifles. Won't do much against MBTs but would be quite dangerous for IFVs and helicopters. So if the cooler heads did not prevail it would have turned into a bloody mess. So, I guess... thanks to Eris that it all worked out.

    847:

    Well, maybe I am a bit idealistic, but I do not think NATO could have expanded into the Baltics if the Baltics did not wish to belong there, and that directly stems from how Russia treated us in the past. I don't deny the existence of the Great Game, but I also don't think the Baltics are mere pawns and all is decided somewhere else. After all, we believe that belonging to EU and NATO will give us more freedom in our lives and decisions than we would get in the Russian Federation.

    Mongo no longer wish to be pawn in game of life.

    848:

    I wouldn't even go as far as "NATO could have expanded into the Baltics"; I'd say that NATO would not have accepted the Baltics as members if they had not actively and freely applied to join.

    (Side note - This isn't the first time NATO has accepted an application to join, and other nations have been allowed to leave on submitting a "letter of resignation".)

    849:

    Incidentally, the last deployments of the USA army have not yet left Germany (or the UK).

    Fair's fair - the German Army only left Wales in 1996, curse those invaders. And poor America - occupied permanently by the Staffeln of the Luftwaffe (2. and 3. DtLwAusbStff), the RAF (guess where 617 Sqn are?), and even the Japanese!

    On a brighter side, the appointment of General Mattis has been noted by both the Duffel Blog (US military satire, and really very funny) and Terminal Lance...

    850:

    I am afraid that you are too trusting. I accept that joining the Russian federation would not have been a good idea, but that doesn't change my point. One can hope, but ....

    851:

    You are misrepresenting me and the situation, yet again. There is a hell of a difference from merely being what are effectively guests, and maintaining autonomous bases, including using them for storing nuclear weaponds, and using them for active (and arguably illegal) operations. This has been widely reported:

    http://thefifthcolumnnews.com/2016/12/berlin-finally-confesses-us-using-ramstein-for-extra-legal-drone-killings/ http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/ramstein-base-in-germany-a-key-center-in-us-drone-war-a-1029279.html

    Indeed, the USA bases in Germany used to be effectively extra-territorial (almost like consulates), including giving the USA military immunity from German law. I remember that being used in cases of rape, though not as recently as I remember that being done in Japan. It may well still be the case, and the change is more one of discipline than law.

    http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/EN/Aussenpolitik/InternatRecht/Truppenstationierungsrecht_node.html

    852:

    Aren't military bases always extraterritorial? I mean, I was born on the BAoR base in Rhinteln, which counts for purposes of citizenship.

    853:

    Same would apply to US bases in Germany; You could be born on one of them, of a US citizen, and be eligible to become POTUS.

    854:

    Overseas military bases aren't usually extraterritorial from the hosting power unless they've been leased or ceded as sovereign territory: Guantanamo Bay is one such, the Panama Canal Zone was another, I don't think any of the US or British bases in Germany are sovereign territory (the British bases in Cyprus are British sovereign territory). Usually in such situations, the country where the base is will grant some degree of legal privilege and/or immunity to "visiting forces" using such bases, and often their dependents too. Similarly the country using the base will often make special arrangements under its nationality laws for children born there or to their personnel.

    As to what actually constitutes a "natural-born citizen" for US presidential purposes, that has never been definitively litigated but the consensus among non-insane non-birther observers is that it applies to anyone who's a US citizen as of right from birth. So Ted Cruz, born in Canada to US parents, qualifies as does John McCain (born in the Panama Canal Zone) and as did Barry Goldwater (born in the Arizona Territory before it was a state). Barack Obama certainly qualified due to being born in the state of Hawaii, but he would have qualified anyway even if he had been born in Kenya or Indonesia or the lizard peoples' underground lair due to his mother being a US citizen.

    855:

    Sovereign territory is another matter entirely. The USA and UK bases in Germany (and the USA ones in the UK) are effectively extraterritorial; see the NATO SOFA agreements. I don't know of any foreign bases in the USA (or non-USA ones in the UK) that are.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterritoriality

    856:

    You are misrepresenting me and the situation, yet again.

    No, I don't think so (and please forgive me for attempting to use humour). You appear to be asserting that the USA is exceptional, in demanding a level of autonomy that is not reciprocated for its allies. I would suggest that it is very careful around its SOFA because of domestic political considerations; but that this is not unusual (for instance, look up where Leslie Grantham served his prison sentence for murder).

    Such SOFA also lead to situations where UK civilians are tried in a Court Martial, for an offence committed abroad; a colleague was recently involved as a witness in such a case, where the dependent of a soldier committed an assault against another dependent.

    There is a hell of a difference from merely being what are effectively guests, and maintaining autonomous bases, including using them for storing nuclear weapons, and using them for active (and arguably illegal) operations.

    Why, particularly? There's nothing particularly different about nuclear weapons oter than the level of security and sensitivity involved... we've nuked Australia, and as a matter of policy refused to confirm or deny the carriage of nuclear weapons on individual HM ships when docking in foreign ports (bet you that between the 50s and the 90s, at least one of the HM's grey or black war canoes has carried instant sunshine during a visit to a USN domestic base)

    Define "autonomous". They don't just "do what they want without reference to the host nation" - that's a short-sighted approach. There are liaison types, they do talk. If it's serious stuff, the US asks permission. After all, there were UK troops guarding US nuclear weapons within the UK (including "inside the wire") - do you really think that GLCM could have deployed in the UK without UK permission?

    I agree that the USA has more foreign bases than other nations have bases in the US, but that's largely geography - (obligatory Blackadder joke) the USA is so far back it sends its laundry forward, and is a long way from anything we've wanted to strike in the last seventy years. Not having had an Empire, it doesn't actually have much foreign soil that we might want to use for such. The UK has on occasion used US facilities for its operations (Wideawake Airfield in 1982, for instance; and I've certainly travelled through Dulles Airport on a NATO Travel Order in the early 90s - it was surreal seeing "Royal Air Force" against the airline name on the old-style mechanical departures board)

    US operations have sometimes employed UK bases, sometimes the UK has refused permission. UK permission was granted for the 1986 strikes against Libya; French permission wasn't. UK permission was not granted during the 1960s and 1970s when the US was looking for host nation support for the Vietnam War. Pristina Airport in 1999 is another example where the UK national authority has been used to say "no" to the US.

    857:

    That is strangely encouraging. It is to be hoped that this precedent is followed & Pres Pence's nuclear strike against Persia will be done without any assistance from us, of any sort.

    858:

    Until recently (1998?) the German bases were under conditions that dated from the occupation and, even now, the SOFA agreements separate permanent bases from temporary visits. How many PERMANENT foreign bases are there in USA territory?

    You would also no doubt claim that the UK's extradition agreement with the USA is balanced but, like the base agreements, even if the wording were balanced, its implementation isn't. While I agree that the USA has been more careful recently, it wasn't in the 1990s, and it still isn't in Japan; rapists getting near-immunity is NOT an imaginary example. And, while the USA may usually ask permission for military or illegal use, that is NOT what happened with 'extraordinary rendition'.

    859:

    Please note: I'm not in any way trying to suggest that the US military doesn't have a real problem in its ranks when it comes to sexual offences; Doonesbury has done some excellent strips on that very subject. Nor am I trying to suggest that US service personnel have been treated equally as a result of the SOFA.

    While I agree that the USA has been more careful recently, it wasn't in the 1990s, and it still isn't in Japan; rapists getting near-immunity is NOT an imaginary example.

    Are you sure about that? I'll leave it to others to decide whether your post has perhaps... summarised a depressing history into a form that might possibly leave the wrong impression with the reader.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Okinawa_rape_incident

    "...The three men served prison terms in Japanese prisons and were released in 2003..."

    https://www.stripes.com/news/marine-convicted-of-95-murder-released-from-japanese-jail-1.54040

    "...Joshua Hill was a 20-year-old private first class in January 1996 when he was sentenced to 11 years of hard labor in a Japanese prison for killing Kanako Kinjo.."

    I tried, but failed, to find how many cases were tried, found guilty, and sent to Fort Leavenworth instead of a Japanese prison. After a short search, I did find other two cases in the 90s where US personnel were jailed in Japan for causing death by dangerous driving (Lori Padilla and Randall Eskridge); and a 1991 murder case in West Berlin where the offender (Derrick Anderson) was jailed for life.

    The last US Serviceman to be executed (John Bennett), had committed rape and murder in Austria, in 1954 - occupation SOFA applied, so he was convicted by Court Martial

    Consider also the execution of US Service personnel under their SOFA with the UK: eighteen of them.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HM_Prison_Shepton_Mallet#American_military_executions

    860:

    Yes, I am, but I may not have been entirely clear.

    The point isn't that some (most?) criminals aren't handed over, convicted etc., it is that some (many?) are not and such action was (and may still be) entirely up to the occupying authorities, not the host country, even when the crime is committed outside the base by soldiers not on duty. To repeat what I said:

    "Indeed, the USA bases in Germany used to be effectively extra-territorial (almost like consulates), including giving the USA military immunity from German law. I remember that being used in cases of rape, though not as recently as I remember that being done in Japan. It may well still be the case, and the change is more one of discipline than law."

    I remember cases of soldiers being returned to the USA so that the couldn't be questioned which, under many jurisdictions, means that they can't be indicted, so they needn't be handed over! Whether that still goes on, I don't know, but it may well, and the second link implies that it does.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jul/04/japan.justinmccurry https://www.democracynow.org/2014/1/16/okinawas_revolt_decades_of_rape_environmental

    861:

    So, what do you suggest as an alternative to a SOFA? There is a definite need for them; but you appear to be focusing solely on the victim failure modes.

    I grant you that when the failure modes in the accused's favour, outweigh those of the defendant, then things are going wrong - but that doesn't invalidate the concept, and tends to be a failure of implementation rather than process. Please note that Military Police tend to be just as much interested in justice, and just as intolerant of rapists and murderers as the local police.

    The whole point is to allow an armed force to operate in other (multiple) other countries. There are some issues when doing this:

    1) Other countries may not have an effective criminal or judicial system (e.g. failed states) 2) Other countries may have fair legal systems, but limited chance of fair representation (i.e. court proceedings in another language). 3) Other countries may have fair legal systems, but unduly harsh punishments (i.e. death penalty) or a prison system that does not meet acceptable standards / cannot guarantee the safety of the prisoner. 4) Other countries may have fair legal systems, but different laws. 5) Other countries may have police / legal systems subject to political pressure.

    Throw in the complexity that comes when service personnel are operating in place of / alongside the local police, and things can get messy fast. Some potential problems exist where the local country has laws that restrict behaviour that are perfectly legal in $HOME NATION:

    • A female soldier is arrested by a member of the local Police for "driving while female" or "being female and not covering her arms" (e.g. Saudi Arabia).
    • A male soldier and a female soldier who are not married, are arrested for adultery after leaving a hotel room.
    • Two gay soldiers are arrested for "immorality" after leaving their hotel room.

    It also works the other way round; local behaviour may allow things that $HOME NATION does not:

    • A soldier and their family are resident on base; the soldier is a domestic abuser / domestic rapist. Locally, marital rape is unrecognised, or "light chastisement" seen as acceptable.

    I'm not going to claim that soldiers are innocents, nor even that the UK is somehow better - for instance, that Royal Marine jailed for the murder of an Afghan casualty is IMHO clearly guilty; and it is a matter of shame that the killers of Baha Mousa walk free.

    862:

    Many things, especially as the original context was Germany, but I am not going be dragged into responding to another irrelevance.

    863:

    Gruppenfuhrer Pence?

    How about we describe his as (Would be) Lord Protector Pence.

    Or se are stuck with the Hairpiece that walks like a man.

    (I like that one)

    864:

    I came across this paper while reading more re about Kosovo on another forum...

    http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a404031.pdf

    It's an excellent example of the mess that is faced at the time where UN operations become necessary; but it should illustrate that the boots on the ground, their staffs, their commanders, and the government departments tasking them, are fully aware of the reality of the situation...

    865:

    I found another interesting text... this one is the Swedish assessment of Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective (2016).

    The linked PDF is in English, heavily footnoted with Russian sources, and fascinating. Bearing in mind that this is written by a non-NATO country, the interesting part of the abstract is as follows:

    "This report analyses Russian military capability in a ten-year perspective. It is the eighth edition. A change in this report compared with the previous edition is that a basic assumption has been altered. In 2013, we assessed fighting power under the assumption that Russia was responding to an emerging threat with little or no time to prepare operations. In view of recent events, we now estimate available assets for military operations in situations when Russia initiates the use of armed force."

    866:

    Er, Sweden has been closely associated with NATO for a long time:

    http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_52535.htm http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_104086.htm

    The assessment of capabilities is interesting, especially when compared with USA/UK/NATO rhetoric - I especially noted figure 2.3.

    867:

    Page 94 is similarly interesting (the change in emphasis, and the pivot to the West) - but section 4.3.1 is much more worrying:

    These practical measures to increase control over society have been coupled with state propaganda that underlines the dangers facing Russia as well as virulent anti-Westernism. In the words of Vladimir Gel’man, professor at the European University in St. Petersburg, “the politics of fear, as well as more aggressive and extensive state propaganda, became major instruments of maintaining authoritarian equilibrium”

    Section 4.4.3 is fairly scary, too - senior doctrinal types arguing that the first use of theater / tactical nuclear weapons is justifiable:

    "The use of nuclear weapons should, according to this line of thought, frighten the adversary and lead to a de-escalation of the conflict."

    868:

    The propaganda is no more extreme, relative to the facts, that the anti-Russian propaganda the western press is riddled with. While it has been used to support the authoritarianism, there is no doubt that they are being increasingly threatened by the USA, NATO etc., and have been for a long time. In addition to the missile bases, consider the abuse of the Montreux treaty, especially in the light of figure 2.3:

    http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2014/01/first-us-navy-warship-heads-to-black-sea-as-potential-backup-for-sochi/ https://www.rt.com/news/237645-russia-nato-black-sea/

    Yes, 4.4.3 is seriously worrying, but note that Russia is still one of the good guys compared to the USA:

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304620304575166263632513790

    869:

    but note that Russia is still one of the good guys compared to the USA

    Unsurprisingly, I don't share your sunny interpretation of the direction of Russian foreign policy...

    While I find the emergence of Trump/Pence and their cabal as deeply worrying, at least they haven't secured the broadcast media and excluded independent outlets (unlike in Russia), haven't arrested or killed their political opponents (unlike in Russia), and haven't yet started setting up extra-governmental "Patriotic" groups to support their aims with thuggery (unlike in Russia).

    The USA (and the UK) governments are far from innocent. But the Russian leadership are by no means "one of the good guys" (and please note, I differentiate the Russian leadership from the bulk of the Russian people). I have far more faith in the accountability of UK/USA than of Putin and his friends.

    It was interesting that the Swedes didn't think a few interceptors under the Iran-Washington flight path were worthy of mention - certainly, the section on the Strategic Rocket Forces didn't regard it as a strategic factor. I rather suspect that the one US warship in the Black Sea acting as an X-band early-warning radar for the interceptors has a life expectancy of minutes in the event of a Russia-USA conflict starting to bubble, courtesy of the Baltic Fleet....

    870:

    You have changed the context; 4.4.3 was about nuclear weapons' use. The USA unilaterally broke the accord not to initiate nuclear strikes against non-nuclear powers, and not to develop 'battlefield' weapons, and that made several countries rethink their membership of the NPT. Russia is currently only thinking about whether to do so. So far, it is still one of the good guys, and the USA isn't, but I am not sure how long the former will hold.

    And your whitewashing of the USA is nonsense, because they do all of those in other countries and support governments that do - and worse. I suggest that you investigate what the USA has done to Al Jazeera and its journalists, but I bet you won't. Russia is very nasty, but is nothing like as nasty as some of the countries and organisations that the USA and UK are in bed with.

    871:

    Russia is very nasty

    So we're agreed, then. Global powers are all nasty (no s**t, Sherlock) and do nasty things - and have even nastier friends at lower levels.

    The USA kills its enemies by drone strike; Russia doesn't have the technology, so does it up-close-and-personal (but is similarly unable to avoid "collateral damage").

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-38294204 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Zelimkhan_Yandarbiyev

    I don't believe that I'm whitewashing the USA; it just seems rather naive to view USA/Russia foreign policy regarding each other as a zero-sum game in one (and only one) must be "right", or only one is "the good guys". Criticising Russia is not implicit praise of the USA.

    However, I do feel that the balance of coercion versus persuasion in foreign policy is an interesting indicator - how much "carrot" is used, against how much "stick". Moving armies up to borders, seizing territory by force and declaring it to be your own, are "stick". At its worst, suggesting that small nations (with a historically-coercive larger neighbour) have a right to self-determination through democratic processes, is "carrot".

    872:

    at least they [ Trumpolini & Jean Calvin Pence ] haven't secured the broadcast media and excluded independent outlets (unlike in Russia), haven't arrested or killed their political opponents (unlike in Russia), and haven't yet started setting up extra-governmental "Patriotic" groups to support their aims with thuggery (unlike in Russia).

    You left a very important word out, there ... the word was: "YET"

    How long, after Trumpolini's inauguration [ Note ] before if not open restriction of the press then carefully making sure that the Wash-Post & NYT get no information or are deliberately targeted by federal investigations - which will turn up nothing of course, but will be a very effective smear?

    The extra-governmental "patriotic" groups already exist ... In the form of dominionist-christian orgs, some with links to Putin's friends ....

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Note One or two Electoral College people are apparently starting to get edgy, over the possibility that Putin really did ( No shit Sherlock! ) interfere in the recent election. If the EC does invalidate Trumpolini's elevation, who becomes POTUS? Especially if the grounds are electoral interference &/or fraud - which would surely invalidate Pence's position, as well ... ( ?? )

    873:

    Actually, such censorship is fairly widespread in the USA, and even the UK, but it's normally done by economic and 'legal' action and threats, often directed not at the people/organisations themselves but at their distributors/carriers and in other indirect ways. Think Al Jazeera in the USA and Viz in the UK. Much as the same way that academia and even charities are censored in those countries; I have personal experience of these.

    874:

    If the EC does invalidate Trump's elevation, who becomes POTUS?

    I've got a vague memory of that being a plot device within one of the books in Piers Anthony's "Bio of a Space Tyrant" series...

    875:

    If no-one gets 270 electoral votes or more then the election passes to the House of Representatives voting by state, with each state delegation getting one vote. they have to choose one of the top three vote-getters for President.

    If Clinton was smart, she'd announce that she's unbinding her electors and urging them to vote for a sane Republican like Romney.

    876:

    You'll have to enlighten me, as I've given up on Anthony, several years ago.

    877:

    Yes. I looked at that, which is why I think that there is a (very) small chance Trump will get trumped; at least one Trump elector has stated he will be unfaithful, and enough others are clearly thinking about it. Wasn't Kasich the third? What's he like? A quick Web scan indicates nothing obviously demented about him.

    878:

    Me too, I'm going back to a vague memory from thirty years ago... "Politician"? looking at the Wikipedia entry.

    http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/542601.Politician

    IIRC, the (Anti)Hero becomes president via securing the votes of an Electoral College, having narrowly lost the election vote to his rival...

    879:

    Out of interest, was it the mild paedophilia or the puns that drove you away? ('Both' is also a valid answer)

    880:

    Sorry, I didn't make it clear, it's the top three in terms of electoral votes cast, not the popular vote, so if in the next six days the Russia thing becomes big enough to cause enough electors to consider breaking their pledges, a lot will depend not just on whether enough defect to stop Trump getting the 270 (highly unlikely I suspect) but who the cast their votes for.

    Kasich didn't come close to third place in the popular vote, that went to the libertarian, Johnson, with Stein in fourth place.

    881:

    Neither P A became utterly boring [ Xanth ], when not ranting on about vegetarianism. Nothing against veg/vegans personally, as I know at least one of each, but it's the preaching & holier-than-thou public attitudes of ( some of the louder ) proponents that really grates. { Note* ] If they are concerned about animal cruelty, perhaps they should consider exterminating carnivores - oh, wait a moment, um err .....

    [ Note* For USians - we have a new £5 note, which is basically plastic, but is supposed to contain about 0.1% ( or less) animal fat in the make-up. The "Official" veggie spokesthings went utterly mad. I mean, they aren't going to EAT the money are they? Are they going to attack people in the street for wearing leather?

    Bonkers

    882:

    So you don't want him back? He left Britain on the same boat as Edward VIII.

    883:

    Thanks for the clarification. I read the amendment, but wasn't sure what that meant - there being no fewer than three ways of counting votes! So it's less hopeful than I thought, which wasn't very :-(

    884:

    It would be interesting to see what other common objects contain (or might contain) some animal products, and see if they get similar objections.

    885:

    Anything that contains lanolin probably will, but that may or may not come from shorn wool.

    886:

    Shoes, belts, handbags, wallets ....... Any clothing containing wool &/or silk .....

    887:

    Long time lurker here, popping up to join the few voices that actually miss CD and her perpendicular-to-reality views on OGH's discussions. As far as I could determine, she was the only voice of the chans here, and it was a welcome moment of psychedelia in otherwise very stodgy arguments revolving around the usual attractors. Gonna miss her.

    888:

    She has not gone away but changed named again. Minvera Owl. But I am afraid that she's less insightful than she used to be.

    889:

    Well, I am looking forward to the next moment of perpendicureality. In the meantime I'll try to understand what is GT saying, because for me, it is quite difficult to catch his drift.

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    This page contains a single entry by Charlie Stross published on November 14, 2016 2:30 PM.

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