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The Pivot

Something huge is happening in the UK right now, and I wonder where it's going.

Brexit requires no introduction at this point. Nor, I think, do the main UK media players. With the exception of two newspapers (The Daily Mirror and The Guardian) the national papers have been uniformly pro-Brexit to the extent of attacking national institutions seen as being soft on Brexit. The BBC news programs have also broadly pushed a pro-Brexit line, from Question Time (which gave Nigel Farage a semi-permanent slot but not once invited a guest speaker from the Green Party or the SNP—both pro-Remain by policy), to the Today Program (Radio 4's news flagship), whose John Humphrys pushes a hard Brexit line.

Although the referendum was framed as advisory and limited to leaving the European Union, it was received as a mandate by the Conservative hard right and their hard-left opposite numbers in Labour (who have their own reasons for disliking what they see as a neoliberal right-wing institution), and the current in-cabinet debate appears to be over whether to leave all European institutions immediately, or to provide an adjustment period for leaving organizations like the Customs Union (which wasn't on the ballot in the first place).

Here in the real world the drumbeat of bad economic news continues. Jaguar Land Rover to move production of Discovery from UK to Slovakia, because of course they're owned by Tata, most of their output is exported, and why would an Indian company want to invest in a UK beset by pre-Brexit uncertainty? UK manufacturing output is falling at its fastest rate since 2012. And the rest of the economy is doing so well that Poundworld (the equivalent of a US dollar store chain) has collapsed and is in bankruptcy administration.

Then, last week, something happened. Or several somethings. (From the outside it's hard to be sure.)

One of those somethings was the retirement of Daily Mail editor Paul Dacre and his replacement by Mail on Sunday editor Georgie Greig, a pro-European journalist. Newspaper owner Lord Rothermere remains the same, but an unattributed source described Greig's appointment as part of a process of "detoxifying the Daily Mail".

Next, the Murdoch press began an extraordinary about-face on Brexit. For about a year now Carol Cadwalladr of The Guardian has been digging into Cambridge Analytica, the Leave.EU campaign, and possible links to Russian state agencies and oligarchs. These links were known to some pro-leave journalists as much as two years ago, but they're only now coming to public view. Aaron Banks is one of the main bankers of the Brexit campaign and appears to have very cordial relations with the Russian government, not to mention half a dozen Russian gold mines; he's been called to testify before a House of Commons committee tomorrow and last week was refusing to attend. This week he appears to be on the back foot, with The Times going after him Revealed: Brexit backer Arron Banks's golden Kremlin connection. Indeed, The Observer reports that Arron Banks 'met Russian embassy officials multiple times before Brexit vote'. The newspaper goes on to say, "Towards the end of last year, Banks issued a statement saying his contacts with "the Russians" consisted of "one boozy lunch" at the Russian embassy. Documents seen by the Observer, suggest a different version of events." (Note that Banks has a net worth in the ~£100M range: you don't print anything about him in an English newspaper without getting a legal opinion first.) Oh, and the Fair Vote Project is going after him in court in the US, following allegations that two companies owned by Banks may have illegally exported information on British voters to the USA (in violation of UK data protection rules) for purposes of data mining (Banks had negotiated with Cambridge Analytica prior to this move).

Here's a summary of what we know so far, by way of Vice: verything you need to know about the bombshell report linking Russia to Brexit. Shorter version: Banks had extensive meetings with the Russian ambassador to the UK, who is also named on the indictment of ex-Trump campaign aide George Papadopoulos; Banks also passed contact information for Trump's transition team to the Russians. So he's a critical link in the Brexit/Trump/Russia connection.

He's not the only Brexiteer in trouble in the press. Hedge fund manager and Brexiteer Crispin Odey is accused of shorting the British stock market to the tune of £500M, effectively betting that Brexit will cause the market to fall and these companies to do badly. Brexit ultra and possible Conservative party leadership challenger Jacob Rees-Mogg is under siege by the formerly-friendly Daily Mail: Mogg's Moscow Millions: Brexiteer's firm has poured a fortune into a string of Russian companies with links to the Kremlim but has invested next to nothing in Britain. And finally Neo-Nazi MEP Nigel Farage's EU pension is to be held in escrow pending the completion of ongoing fraud investigations (and, as the icing on the cake, apparently the FBI have named him as a person of interest in their ongoing investigation into Russian slush money and false news).

Let me put forward a hypothesis:

In the real world (outside the pages of fiction) only two types of conspiracy generally take place: cover-up and collusion. A cover-up generally happens when several people or groups stand to lose money or be politically embarrassed if an uncomfortable truth becomes public knowledge. See, for example, the Home Office shredding of historical records relating to the Windrush scandal lest they embarrass the Prime Minister, who was the Home Office minister who brought in the hostile environment immigration policy. And collusion generally takes place when a group of individuals or organizations stand to benefit from a course of action.

Brexit was a classic example of a collusion conspiracy. Many of the named politicians and businessmen above stand to gain millions of pounds from a hard Brexit that causes the British stock market to fall. Others stand to make millions from juicy investment opportunities they were offered in Russia. We cannot know for certain what the quid pro quo for those investment deals were at this time, but I strongly suspect that support for Brexit (and more general socially-authoritarian right-wing policies) was part of it.

And now we're seeing a rival collusion conspiracy surface. Not all billionaires stand to profit from seeing the remains of British industry sink beneath the waves, and not all of them are in the pocket of the Kremlin's financial backers. There are a bunch of very rich, rather reclusive men (and a handful of women) who probably thought, "well, let's sit back and see where this thing leads, for now" about 18 months ago. And now they can see it leading right over a cliff, and they are unhappy, and they have made their displeasure known on the golf course and in the smoke-filled rooms, and the quiet whispering campaign has finally turned heads at the top of the media empires.

If I'm right, then over the next four to eight weeks the wrath of the British press is going to fall on the heads of the Brexit lobby with a force and a fury we haven't seen in a generation. There may be arrests and criminal prosecutions before this sorry tale is done: I'd be unsurprised to see money-laundering investigations, and possibly prosecutions under the Bribery Act (2010), launched within this time frame that will rumble on for years to come.

Even if the momentum behind Brexit proves un-stoppable at this point, the Remain faction—in the shape of the corporate and political power groups who stand to lose their fortunes as a result—will seek revenge.

And in the large, I think it's no coincidence at all that this broke out in the same week as Donald Trump's epic tantrum at the G7 summit.

1456 Comments

1:

If I'm right, then over the next four to eight weeks the wrath of the British press is going to fall on the heads of the Brexit lobby with a force and a fury we haven't seen in a generation. There may be arrests and criminal prosecutions before this sorry tale is done: I'd be unsurprised to see money-laundering investigations, and possibly prosecutions under the Bribery Act (2010), launched within this time frame that will rumble on for years to come. The press pivot has been inspiring (US person writing) to watch. I don't know the UK press well enough to properly model the pivot; intuition is saying that you're right, though. I.e. what would derail it and how could such be stopped?

2:

[oops missed close italics on quote of toppost]

3:

I have no idea.

But what we're seeing is the equivalent of Fox News turning on Trump and the New York Times going into Watergate Investigation target-seeking mode on the alt-right. It's spectacular. Where it leads? Who the hell knows.

4:

It’s the first thing I’ve seen since the referendum that’s really given me any inkling of hope, it feels a bit like watching 2 behemoths fighting: the Brexit conspirators, and the remain dark money forces. I feel like I’m only glimpsing the surface, and I truly have no idea who will succeed. Interesting times are fucking terrifying.

5:

which gave Nigel Farage a semi-permanent slot but not once invited a guest speaker from the Green Party or the SNP Are you sure? There was a recent episode of "More or Less" which compared the frequency of Question Time appearances by Nigel Farage (and other UKIP members) against Caroline Lucas (and other Green Party members). It concluded that UKIP had appeared slightly more often over the years but not massively so. And surely there have been SNP representatives on Question Time? ["More or Less" is broadcast by the BBC, of course].

6:

Say what you will, but if even just 10% of the Russia-connection claims, never mind rumours and innuendo, is true, the former head of KGB must walk around with a perpetual grin so wide he only fits sideways through doors.

"Globalization minus one" is an interesting scenario to think through.

7:

WARNING

My twitter feed is currently awash with Certain People threatening libel lawsuits against Other Certain People.

(Unexpectedly, it's the investigative team exposing the Leave.EU campaign anomalies who are threatening lawsuits against the Leave.EU zillionaires, who they allege have been smearing them.)

Suffice to say that if anyone reposts these allegations here, the comments will be deleted and the commenter banned.

8:

I would like to add a few other possible conspiracists to the mix, if that would be OK?

First of all, we have that rarest of beasts the sensible economist. Over in the EU we have a situation brewing whereby there's an awful lot of debt that might be bad, or might just be fluff. I suspect that quite a lot is of the form "A owes B money, B owes C money, C owes A money" which could be resolved by a sort of monetary pass-the-parcel routine which won't happen because banks aren't sensible enough. The net effect is of an almost entirely artificial disaster which doesn't actually exist except in the minds of a lot of fools.

Secondly, quite a lot of people are getting exceedingly annoyed with Germany for being a strong, hard-working and rich economic power (irony definitely intended) which thinks that because it is paying for the party, it can dictate terms to people who aren't paying.

Finally, just to add some much-needed insanity to your Twitter feed, might I make the wholly unfounded claim that the Patterson-Gimlin footage was actually a mens' razor advert which went terribly wrong?

9:

Charlie Your last point about DT being mean to everyone ios apt. May has (probably) finaly seen that there is no persuading the Donald - unless he wants it - & that we are "Better off IN"\ ec's comments in the previous thread about our own people being as bad as Putin's I will discount, but simply note the rate of Putin-opponents who doe conveniently, both in Russia & el;sewhere.

As you suggest all it wants is a solid enough investigation to put (say) some combination of Banks. C Analytica, maybe Mogg & one por two others in the dock - just "arraigned" will do, because mud sticks. And the whole thing will crash & suitable excuse will be found for Referendum II/withdraw At50.

[ I wonder if simply declaring the previous referendum invalid, because of fraud & interference would wash? I suspect not & we need a second one, but we will see. ]

The USA is stuck with Trump intil 2020 - but we CAN back out of Brexit, right up untilthe last minute, actually.

10:

It's also worth noting that the Express was bought by Trinity Mirror earlier this year, and the new editor has publicly described some of their past headlines as downright offensive. A number of other members of staff also left, so I wouldn't be surprised if they soften their stance.

11:

Secondly, quite a lot of people are getting exceedingly annoyed with Germany for being a strong, hard-working and rich economic power (irony definitely intended) which thinks that because it is paying for the party, it can dictate terms to people who aren't paying.

Not exactly: the German problem is more complex. TLDR is that Joe Voter in no country anywhere truly understands the difference between a household budget and a national budget (hint: macroeconomics is counter-intuitive); and Germany, as a federal republic with a PR system, is in more or less permanent election campaign mode. So nobody is willing to tell the voters that to fix Greece you've got to lend them money and get them to spend it again, cycling it through the European economy and buying German goods and services. Instead it's all goddamn austerity, which actually cuts spending, and thereby damages the economy, making everything worse.

12:

In related "media going nuts" fun, Fox and Friends actually said "Meeting between two dictators" with regards to the North Korea summit in Singapore. This is probably nothing other than a huge Freudian slip, but it is amusing in a I-must-laugh-lest-I-weep sense.

13:

The USA is stuck with Trump intil 2020 - but we CAN back out of Brexit, right up untilthe last minute, actually.

Unfortunately not true: we can only back out if the EU27 unanimously agree to let us, or if the courts permit enough weasel-room to declare the A50 declaration invalid.

The latter might be possible but would almost certainly result in T. May's resignation, her position as the PM who invoked A50 making her continuance in office non-viable.

14:

I strongly suspect that we’re well into the territory where the outcome of cancelling Brexit or removing Trump is even less predictable than letting things continue as they are.

15:

I'm seeing weird stuff over here too, mostly economic (like reports that the million-dollar homes that they're building aren't selling, while developers are lining up to blitz the regulatory system and get permits to build huge numbers more). We may be entering that phase of peak economic growth where things are starting to bubble and pop. That would embolden investigators to go after those who, a year ago, were seen as economically invulnerable. It also suggests that investors are looking for suckers to be left holding the questionable investments when things go south.

My second suspicion is that there's a Great Game meme rising here too. What I mean is that back in the 19th Century, the Great Game was the UK and Russia playing for control of Asia. During WWII, the US inherited the UK's stake in the Great Game, and we had the Cold War.

Now it looks like Russia really played both the US and the UK. Old memories of the Great Game and the Cold War are (perhaps) fueling an urge to take down those who profited from working with the Russians, as well as to make sure our elections and politics aren't hacked any more thoroughly (say, this fall in the US).

Yes, I'm quite aware that the world has shifted dramatically since WWII, and that China and India are bigger players in Asia's future than Russia or the US (unless some idiot goes for nuclear war in a last spasm of toxic masculine display, before we shed our nuclear antlers like some bull elk at the end of the rut). My suggestion is that there's a culture war going on too (West vs. East), however the money is flowing. If said culture war tars the one world internationalists, I suspect the people who see echoes of the Great Game would think that's a good thing.

16:

if the courts permit enough weasel-room to declare the A50 declaration invalid

The Article 50 invocation needs to be made in accordance with the constitution of the withdrawing state. It would probably require another General Election first, but "No Parliament may bind its successors" may be a spot to insert the Mustelids.

17:

All very good questions, but I still think you are looking in the wrong direction. While no doubt there was an unsavory Russian link, because interfering in hostile governments' elections is SOP, and has been for centuries. But I know of no evidence that it was significant, unlike some other foreign interference.

A question only I seem to be asking is that, if one replaced Russia by the USA, what would the comparable evidence look like? A corollary is why is that not a relevant question?

One of the reasons that Gove, May and Fox are so clearly deceitful, delusional and demented is that we know what a USA trade deal would look like - TTIP, in its original form. I know of several extremely nasty USA companies (starting with Monsanto) that have been using the UK as a fifth column for years to subvert the EU and all it stands for, and would dearly love many of the provisions of that. And, if we crash out, how fast do you think that May etc. would sign up to such a deal?

18:

It seems to me that this is too little, too late. It's going to be hard to swing UK public opinion away from Brexit, it's going to be hard to get the EU to excuse the Article 50 invocation.

I think you're headed for a hard Brexit or a reentry to the EU under harsh conditions. (Joining the Euro, which might actually be worse than a hard Brexit.) I don't see any way to stop it.

19:

Note that Monsanto has been bought by Bayer ... who are dismantling it for parts and ditching the brand name because it's too toxic.

20:

Decades ago I had some contact with some Monsanto people. My take on them (which holds true for Bayer as well) is that any organization that huge is no more a monolith that the UK government or the Catholic Church is. In other words, find your allies and practice divide and conquer on them.

This isn't to say I unconditionally support mass spraying of glyphosate, but the point is to get wise about the real structure of giant organizations.

Still and all, it'll be interesting if EU laws start applying to US agriculture. And even more interesting if y'all keep the reverse from happening...

21:

I suspect a big part of this is the idea that Trump can't be trusted to keep any promise for even a month or two; the current imbroglio about tariffs being the icing on the cake, not to mention that Trump's obvious involvement with the Russians, plus the ongoing Mueller investigation has got to be pushing some serious buttons in the British version of the Deep State.

I suspect - and this is pure speculation - that there was something in the deep background of all this about how the U.K. was going to leave the EU and join NAFTA or something, but after Trump vs. Trudeau nobody can even trust that NAFTA will still exist six months from now.

Lastly, if you're Putin and you just pissed off both the U.S. and the U.K., and the rest of Europe is starting to wise up... (imagine a Pan-EU intelligence summit on the subject of Russian influence) there could be a really interesting realignment coming up in a year or two!

22:

If I had a choice between harsh outcomes, I'd rather it was a hard UK entry to the Eurozone/Schengen than a hard Brexit.

(The former at least maintains our trade relationships: the latter ... doesn't.)

23:

if the courts permit enough weasel-room to declare the A50 declaration invalid

If the Government wanted it declared invalid, they could probably go along with the Article 50 Challenge and tell the court "oh yes, they are right after all, we never actually made a formal decision".

I suspect that if we just ask to cancel it in demonstrable, or at least plausible, good faith (which I can't see happening without a change of government, or at least its leadership) the EU27 would agree. If we say we still want to leave but would like a delay because we were premature sending the withdrawal notice, not so much.

If the courts decide it was invalid, but the government wants to use that merely to delay by restarting the countdown from a new, valid, notification, the EU27 might have to accept that, but they won't be happy.

24:

As it happens I've just looked in on another forum which has a great long thread about leaving the EU - a thread which I normally avoid because the combination of the fervour of the views in favour of leaving, and the impossibility of working out what the supposed beneficial results that they anticipate so fervently actually are, is too much of a temptation to post something that would get me banned.

Nevertheless today I did look at the last couple of pages, and the whole thing seems to have turned upside down, with links to some of the same news stories that Charlie has posted, and contributors in favour of leaving notable by their paucity. Which it has to be said surprised me considerably, but maybe there is some hope.

26:

I feel that detoxifying the Daily Mail is akin to decommissioning Sellafield.

It's a fifty year job that won't be complete until the most toxic waste is entombed in concrete and buried in a deep hole.

27:

Charlie @ 13 Yes, the 27 would vot to let us cancel - one argument of the Brexiteers is true - they want the money ... AND - it saves enormous amounts of wasted effort. May couls stay in office, PROVIDED she stuffs the 3-mad-brexiteers who are currently "negotiating" (not) with the blame - which is, actually, all-too-easy to do. I recommemnd studying Bismarck's moves in the period 1849-66 actually .....

The Raven @ 18 Op-polls say otherwise & that a referendum now would be at least 55% remain, with the number growing by the day, as the bad news finally penetrates.

Troutwaxer @ 21 Slight correction I suspect a big part of this is the idea that Trump can't be trusted to keep any promise for even a monthDAY or two ....

Pigeon @ 24 Yes Interesting, that, what?

28:

"The USA is stuck with Trump intil 2020 ... "

I wonder about that?

Trump could be impeached; especially if the turmoil in the UK causes evidence of links between Brexiteers alleged collusion with Putin's Russia and Putin's interference in the U.S. election and collusion with the Trump campaign to turn up. If things go badly for the GOP in this fall's midterm elections, they might decide to get rid of Trump before he drags them all down.

29:

Trump could be impeached yes. However even if the impeachment process were to take place immediately after the midterms the whole circus can very well drag on until 2020, especially since much of it also depends on Mueller's investigations which really wouldn't wound down at least until next year as well.

Remember that the only two previous situations even remotely similar to the current, the Watergate scandal and Clinton's impeachment, both took years and only really came to a conclusion very late into either president's term.

I find it very likely that Trump would survive until 2020, whether he'll be able to effect any kind of change is another story, but barring some truly, legally damning evidence for collusion with Russia Trump is safe from at least short term consequences.

30:

I tend to agree. The most likely scenario is 2018-2020 is gridlock, because the democrats control the house, the republicans control the senate (or are split), no one wants to impeach Trump because Pence is scarier, and meanwhile the economy is bubbling and popping.

Now, about that Mueller probe. Trump can only even theoretically pardon himself for federal crimes, so I think it's at least possible that the New York AGs will have fun persecuting prosecuting Trump's family and companies in New York State Court, where they can get convictions and Trump can do nothing about them, because state's rights. It's also possible that Trump's family and business associates will be targeted by the EU.

The scarier scenario is that the Republicans impeach Trump in 2019 to steal the Democrats' thunder and to install Pence as their "cleaner" president. That might actually not be the best thing for the world...

31:

A quick question. If the UK authorities find out that there has been foreign tampering in the Brexit vote, does this give the government any recourse to invalidate the results of the referendum and stop the Brexit process?

I'd guess there would be some, perhaps even the PM (wasn't she opposed in the first place?) who might love any excuse to be able to prevent Brexit.

32:

I know it's not a good time to be saying the US has a better idea on something, but it's amazing to me that the US government is less firm on shackling states and municipalities to the Dollar than Brussels is on requiring the Euro.

US municipalities are allowed to issue dollar-denominated scrip to anyone who will take it, and let the scrip's value against the dollar float. This is how some parts of the US survived the Depression. This is what Greece really should have done in 2009, and dared Brussels to make a fuss over it. And it's why a hard Brexit is in my view better than joining the Euro. 2020 is not that far away. A sane president in the US could offer a much better deal to the UK. And Brussels might come to their senses and realize that Schengen and free trade are more important than the Euro, and offer the UK re-entry on those terms (which would require Brussels to allow other member states to issue quasi-drachmas, again a good thing in my view).

33:

Trump can only even theoretically pardon himself for federal crimes

... while he is president. If Mueller or whatever convict him after he leaves office he's going to have to rely on whoever gets it next to pardon him. Which, fingers crossed, would mean 8 years served before the next Republican president.

Not that I am optimistic, the extent to which gerrymandering is not just legal but "the way things are done" means Republican control of both houses looks about as doubtful as the result of a Russian election. Coincidence, I'm sure.

Not to mention that any appeal (of either) will likely go all the way to a Trump-appointed supreme court, and they have shown amazing "flexibility" when it comes to getting the right result. I would say 'activism" but that's a political term used to mean "not fascist" in US jurisprudence.

34:

You'd basically fall into OGH @13: since the formal Article 50 notice has been sent in, the original referendum result has been officially accepted by the UK government.

Put another way: the referendum matters to the UK government and within the UK, the Article 50 invocation is what matters for the EU.

35:

Ripenorta @ 31 All very true But, you must remeber the amount of noise ("Sound & fury signifying nothing" maybe? ) the Brexit-Loonies can make. The moment to show them as empty shams must be picked to an exactment - they must be allowed to be completely discredited & the toppled, or they will only come back again.

As I mentioned earlier, "Lord's Day Observance Society" - back in the 1950's everyone was terrified of them ... until, of all people, Prince Philip played Polo on a Sunday, they protested ... & it was reported, very discreetly, that, erm "strong Naval language" was used when he was asked about it. It all went completely quiet after that.

36:

@35 I guess it depends on how much counter-noise the big media entities are making. If, as Charlie posits, this is the beginning of a media turn-around on Brexit, that Brexiteer noise could be mitigated. All a newspaper really needs to do is to mock and ridicule the likes of Farage, The Daily Mail has been doing that for years on the other side of the political fence.

As for Prince Philip. LOL. I'd believe that. PP has never been, how to say this, politically correct. He's got form down here in Oz, and I believe many other places too.

37:

"...to provide an adjustment period for leaving organizations like the Customs Union (which wasn't on the ballot in the first place)."

Let's not be naive. It's true that the Customs Union was never specifically on the ballot, the Leave campaigners tried to avoid the topic, and many voters had no idea it was an issue, but anyone with any understanding of the EU knew that if we left the EU, we were out of the Customs Union. Sure we joined the Common Market before the EU, but the European Customs Union is a different beast.

38:

Derek I had a very-sceptical view of the EU, as some may remeber. Indeed, in some respects I still do - I hate to say it, but Crbyn has half a point. BUT On balance, "in" is better than "out" & what finally swayed me, on the day of the ballot was the triple-thought in my head: "Ireland, Scotland, Gibraltar" All of which involve serious cross-border trade & free movement of people. All of which were caerfully ignored, pooh-ppohed or bullshitted away by the Brexiteers.

Now, it may, I hope, be coming home to roost & shit on theor windowsills & heads.

39:

Derek Yes It's the reason I voted remain, in spite of having semi-Corbynite sympaties, regarding corrupt businees lobbying in EU regulations. "Ireland, Scotland, Gibraltar" - all of which involve customs problems & interference with free movement. The Brexiteers always pretended these problems didn't exist ... now their lies might be coming home to roost & also shit on theor windowsills & heads ...

40:

Greg, since you raised the topic of the Irish border and how it was ignored/dismissed during the referendum campaigning, you (and others) may find this article interesting with respect to how the DUP crapped on their own doorstep, possibly unintentionally.

One of the many pigeons winging their way homewards? Or is it more a case of the butterflies are flapping madly, and who knows what storms are coming?

"The party enthusiastically supported Brexit but did so, one suspects, in the confident belief that it would never happen. The DUP’s Brexit campaign was a day trip to a British theme park, a chance to wave the Union flag and to be clasped warmly to the bosoms of those in the Conservative Party who welcomed any allies they could get in the glorious cause of overthrowing the imaginary oppressor in Brussels."

http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2018/06/11/how-ulster-unionists-block-brexit/

41:

I am getting old and forgetful, but that happened only after Brexit, anyway. For another set of examples that we know were lobbying hard and are opposed to the EU, consider the medical and 'care' companies. Or the feed-lot meat factories with their steroids and antibiotics.

42:

It won't be the first time those idiots have repeatedly shot themselves in the foot, with the idiots in Whitehall and Westminster reloading for them, and given the country gangrene. I remember 1969 ....

Actually, the really interesting thing is the dog in the night time - i.e. Sinn Fein. They are clearly under orders to lie low and keep their powder dry - they don't even need to defend the line of 'no hard border', because Eire and the EU are doing it. You may be able to guess what will erupt from them and the people behind them when we crash out, but I can't.

43:

You may just be forgetting the original reason for holding the referendum; I can assure you that the May administration have not forgotten the meteoric rise of UKIP. UK politics is generally a slow, staid sort of an affair. We have two big parties plus a third one for all the misfits to lurk in, and that's how it has been for quite a while.

Then the Big Two found that the EU was absolutely wonderful for blaming unpopular but necessary legislation on (occasionally governments even went further and "goldplated" EU regulation, making it even more onerous), which slowly penetrated the public consciousness: with the notion: The EU is where the bad stuff comes from.

Cue a populist anti-EU party. Turned up from nowhere as a cult of personality, and grew, and grew, and grew. There didn't seem to be any way to get shut of UKIP save to hold the referendum that was the one issue it was campaigning on; the alternative was to tell it to get lost and watch one's own share of the vote get eroded over time. Granted, the EU high command didn't help themselves much by high-handedly telling the UK Prime Minister to get lost and sort his local populist vermin problems himself, but still.

So the UK government held the referendum, and tried their very best to rig it. Read that again: at the time of the EU referendum, BOTH big UK parties were pro-EU and BOTH were trying to rig the vote in the EU's favour (as indeed were the EU).

The vote-rigging failed, but not by very much. Notably, the further from the centres of power in London and Edinburgh you got, the more euroskeptic the populace became. The problem then was what to do: pay attention or ignore it? If the UK government ignored it, then there was the problem of what to do about UKIP, since they weren't going to go away. The rallying cry would turn from "Vote for a referendum" to "Vote for us to clean up politics and remove these two treacherous anti-democratic elites!"; UKIP would only get more popular and might well end up helping form a government which would come at a price: obey the referendum.

44:

You may be able to guess what will erupt from them and the people behind them when we crash out, but I can't.

We're into totally terror incognita on that front (typo delibrate).

What I would caution against is taking too seriously the idea that Sinn Fein is the toy of shadowy forces -- this was certainly true of it's origins, but the realtionship between Sinn Fein and the terrorists that birthed them is these days attenuated and complex, and beyond the simple organ grinder/monkey narrative drum that the DUP and fellow travellers gleefully bang at every opportunity.

Despite an early mistep of calling for a border poll immediately after the referendum result, they appear to be following the old advice of "never interrupt your enemy while they're making a mistake".

45:

I would also say that should May & Co keep the accelerator firmly stamped to the floor for a Hard Brexit, that they will be happier to throw the DUP under a bus and implement an defacto border in the Irish Sea, rather than continue to untangle the NI/ROI land border problem.

This would almost certainly leave Sinn Fein (and NI nationalists of every stripe) much happier than with a "hard border" in Ireland.

How the DUP choose to react should this happen is another question. They have several unappealing options to choose from, almost all of them ending with their influence greatly reduced and offending a chunk of their base (and that's before we even start to talk about the extrenal scandals and internal tensions that have a high chance of pulling the party apart).

46:

While I agree that the DUP's view of Sinn Fein is outdated, and it is no longer the mouthpiece for armed terrorists, my best guess of its organisation is it is like the Communist one in the Soviet Union. It's becoming more like a normal party, yes, but I believe that its strategic planning is still being done by an inner, secretive, caucus. How firm a control they still have, and how much inner dissent there is, is unclear. My guess is "Less than they think" and "More than they think", which is a good recipe for terror incognita when the Brexshit hits the fan and, true to its historical record, HMG fucks up its response to the inevitable direct action :-(

47:

"Although the referendum was framed as advisory and limited to leaving the European Union, it was received as a mandate by the Conservative hard right and their hard-left opposite numbers in Labour"

As a side note, various shades of soft Brexit would be primarily opposed at this point by people on the right of the Labour party, as Stephen Bush has pointed out here: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/06/could-labour-really-keep-united-kingdom-eea (the Kate Hoeys, Frank Fields etc).

And this formulation ignores the role of centrists of both stripes in pushing the 'Legitimate Concerns' angle which got the UK to the point where an argument based on 'The Turks are coming!!!111!' has any sort of salience.

The referendum being framed as advisory is largely irrelevant at this point - as does I would suggest the Russian angle - because ultimately no one will admit to their own vote being bought - and even absent a 'large Russian influencing campaign' the vote was always predicted to be close. A close win for Remain would have resulted in exactly the same issue of having to deal with the fact that millions of people were dissatisfied with the status quo. Harping on about this sort of thing makes for great twitter - but is ultimately doing little to persuade people to vote differently should the referendum be replayed in some form.

Finally, I would be unsurprised if there was an attempt to influence the election (there's documentary evidence of the Soviets trying to influence US elections during the Reagan era, and plenty of evidence that the US did similar), I don't expect there to be any kind of big denouement, simply because Western Democracies are a lot more corrupt than people will admit.

48:

at the time of the EU referendum, BOTH big UK parties were pro-EU and BOTH were trying to rig the vote in the EU's favour (as indeed were the EU).

If the Powers-That-Be were trying to "rig the vote" as you say they missed a few opportunities such as forgetting to allow British citizens living in the EU to vote or allowing 16-year-olds in Scotland to vote (which they did for the Independence referendum a couple of years earlier). if they had allowed either or both interested groups to vote it would have been a lot closer or indeed a reversal of the actual result.

Both parties, Conservative and Labour, have a significant number of xenophobic supporters who are anti-EU and the only way to keep them from voting UKIP was to be at least agnostic about the referendum and appear even-handed. In the 2015 General election UKIP got 3.8 million votes, comfortably beating the Lib Dems 2.4 million votes. After the referendum "win", in the 2017 election UKIP got 600,000 votes as the protest voters returned to their roots. This has been noted in both parties with the understanding that any attempt to reverse the referendum result will cause it to happen again.

49:

Dan, whilst Labour were pro-EU, they were almost completely silent during the "debate".

The Leave and Remain campaigns were therefore almost entirely run by Tories, and were not strongly driven by facts. More than that, both campaigns were personal opportunities for those Tory MPs to launch themselves into the public eye and further their careers. More than that, the Tory government and David Cameron were not at all liked by the public, and Cameron explicitly tied himself to Remain. And more than that, there was substantial media bias in favour of Leave.

As a result, there was a substantial Leave vote simply as a rejection of David Cameron and Tory rule. Newspaper bias made people think that there was an honest debate over facts which simply were not true. And the whole thing devolving to a private bunfight between Tories put many people off voting altogether.

Of course both parties had opinions on which way was best for the country (namely Remain), because every study by every competent organisation said that Remain was best for the country economically. I don't think you can say that putting out that information qualifies as trying to rig the result though.

50:

Err, you might misinterpret some things; there is a difference between the EU and the Eurozone. With the UK not pressed to join, AFAIK.

Schengen is a whole different matter, with quite a few non-EU members.

As for local currencies, there are plenty in Europe, too:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_currency#Europe

Please note quite a few of those tied to Gsell's theories might make for, err, interesting discussions...

51:

"Tried their very best to rig it [in favour of the EU]"... er, what?

The whole point was that it was expected to deliver a large majority in favour of Remain, which would in effect give the xenophobic screaming party a slap across the face with a wet dishcloth and say "see? now go away, you silly little boys", and the silly little boys would go back to sulking in the corner while we all got back to normal. Nobody considered Leave seriously stood a chance, otherwise they wouldn't have been given one in the first place.

Trying to rig it in favour of the EU would have been a waste of effort, since nobody anticipated a situation where it could potentially have an effect. They didn't even think it was worth putting any effort into the actual overt Remain propaganda campaign, let alone any putative cloak-and-dagger stuff.

(Same among the general public, with all the people who supported Remain but couldn't be arsed to vote because "everyone knew" Remain was going to win. Or who supported Remain but still voted Leave simply in order to stick two fingers up to Cameron, never imagining that the Leave total would be significant enough to do any more than embarrass him.)

The fundamental mistake was to take UKIP in any way seriously in the first place. They were repeatedly and laughably useless at getting any parliamentary seats. Single-issue minority parties always are: when the results come in you point and laugh at how badly they've done, and UKIP's general election results were all of that variety. Had they just been ignored they would have faded from sight and become just another of the myriad minority parties that nobody gives a second thought to. The existence of a political climate that even takes the idea of leaving the EU seriously is a post-referendum phenomenon and is caused by the Conservative party throwing petrol on the fire instead of letting it go out.

52:

I'm not sure that Murdoch is pivoting in any meaningful way. Carol Cadwalladr seems to have forced News Corp's hand, having independently come up with information which the Times had been sitting on, so now they're trying to get out in front of the story, shape it, manage it, perhaps throw a few brexiteers under the bus, while assuring people that breaking a few bad eggs won't spoil the Brexit omelette.

53:

I think that was the U.K. version of "...because everyone knows that Hillary is going to win the election."

54:

Actually, Charlie, I'm looking forward to more from the UK press. for very personal reasons: if your press turns, there will be repercussions in the US. And with the Banks lawsuit.... It's clear that right-wing 0.1%ers in the US helped fund the Brexit campaign, as much as the Russians played The Game with both the UK and the US in the run-up to both '16 elections.

The one thing I wish Putin would realize is that, though he's getting what he wants for now, including revenge for the economic destruction of the USSR, with all the grief that meant for the 99%, what would be left would be very, very bad. I have doubts he'd like to see a Balkanize US or UK - we all know what that looks like in the FSSR.

55:

I just had a hysterical thought: wouldn't it be amusing, now that Murdoch is spinning off a lot, like 21st Century Fox, and "focusing" on Faux News... if Murdoch in the UK was caught up in all this, and started down... and then dragged down Faun in the US?

Oh, frabjious day!

56:

There's a huge amount of buyer's remorse; has been since the day after the referendum. So maybe that is coming to dominate public opinion. Still, it is difficult for me to see how that will be translated into action.

57:

Ok, Trumpolini actually has done one thing* I approve of: without telling the Pentagon, he says he's going to cancel the war games with SK. I mean, I dunno why, they were never a provocation, nor threat that we were going to invade, just because they were right on NK's border....

But I was guessing what he got for it... and a little bit later, my guess was confirmed. It seems he told Kim that if they denuclearized, they could have the "best hotels"...

58:

I just had a hysterical thought: wouldn't it be amusing, now that Murdoch is spinning off a lot, like 21st Century Fox, and "focusing" on Faux News... if Murdoch in the UK was caught up in all this, and started down... and then dragged down Faun in the US? You are not alone. (Very much not alone.)

59:

Parliament cant bind its self I think you mean.

As a former whip said to me the executive can get up to "naughty shit"

60:

Exactly the referendum from a technical perspective was handed grossly incompetently.

A local allotment society would not change its rules on a 50% +1.

All the legal precedent "citrine" etc are pretty clear that a major constitutional changes should be 2/3 or 75%

61:

"So the UK government held the referendum, and tried their very best to rig it. Read that again: at the time of the EU referendum, BOTH big UK parties were pro-EU and BOTH were trying to rig the vote in the EU's favour (as indeed were the EU)."

From what I understand, the Tories did rig the election - in favor of Brexit.

For example, British subjects living outside of the UK were not allowed to vote on this. I'd expect them to be 90% against Brexit.

For another, the Tories pitched this as what it was - a 100% advisory, non-binding referendum. Then when it passed, they declared that they were bound by it.

62:

...they have made their displeasure known on the golf course and in the smoke-filled rooms, and the quiet whispering campaign has finally turned heads at the top of the media empires

I won't deny that effect.

But I think it's also important to remember how much journalists are herd-creatures who just follow the herd. Like most primates.

Their readers are the same. As Pratchett put it: people don't read news they read olds. They want more of the same, the next bit of the saga, the "breaking news" that just confirms what they were told yesterday.

Establish a pattern (deliberately or accidentally), and it runs itself. People who have been reading about the great Brexit Russian conspiracy will be primed to read the next part of that saga. Journalists who have been reading and writing about that want to do the same.

Clinton's email server became constant news the same way: the story fed on itself, even when there really was nothing there to begin with. It was news because it was news.

63:

Yes.

I'm more than a little put out that I couldn't vote. I'd have been more than willing to take a day off work to get to the local consulate to vote there. Didn't get the chance, of course.

64:

"Today" programme - just now. Retiring head of CBI stating that (to the effect of) "Brexit is an utter disaster" & "It's all ideology, with no content" The Tories are notorious as the "pro-Business" party - yet most business' are screaming blue murder over Brexit. As stated by others above, Labour are utterly useless, because Corbyn & momnetum are ant-Brexit.

Final reminder, the areas that voted hardest agin Brexit are usually safe Labour seats with huge EU subsidies to their areas, which still makes no sense at all.

65:

The whole thing damned thing lost any connection with reality (or indeed EU membership) long ago. It’s all dog whistles, special interest hijack attempts, self interest, and cynical ambition from top to bottom now and there’s simply no point trying to make any sense of it.

The worst of it is that (quite apart from the economic and social effects of being in or out of the EU) UK politics is now poisoned for a generation with irreconcilable schisms running through electorate, political parties, and institutions from top to bottom.

66:

Here in the real world the drumbeat of bad economic news continues. ... UK manufacturing output is falling at its fastest rate since 2012.

But I did notice that the cited article continues: "Although factory output fell to its second-lowest level since the EU referendum last month, a jump in new orders growth indicated that demand for the booming sector remains robust." So at least, they imply, the demand is there.

67:

The fundamental mistake was to take UKIP in any way seriously in the first place. They were repeatedly and laughably useless at getting any parliamentary seats.

The Conservative party couldn't ignore them because the Tories were haemorrhaging voters from the right of the party, who defected to UKIP. UKIP's anti-European stance was always a dog-whistle for anti-immigration, i.e. racism. (There was also some — less — defection from Labour.)

In a first past the post constituency which might break 20% LibDem, 36% Labour, and 44% Tory, the Tory candidate had a safe-ish parliamentary seat.

If you expand it so that it breaks 20% LibDem, 20% UKIP, 31% Labour, and 29% Tory, the Tory candidate loses to Labour and the seat changes hands.

This is why UKIP was impossible for Cameron to ignore; at the pace their base was expanding in 2014, it was only a matter of time before they rendered the Conservatives unable to hold onto parliament (without actually making a breakthrough themselves).

(American readers: remember that the English conflate "immigrant" with "ethnic minority", because there's no equivalent of the African-American or Native American communities in the UK, i.e. unassimilated, visually distinctively different people present for many centuries, making up a double-digit percentage of the total population. The UK has always had immigration, but prior to the 1920s the immigrants generally assimilated into invisibility within a generation or three, so the cultural assumption of ethnic homogeneity could persist. So people who look different are "immigrants". This is now breaking down somewhat — the Windrush generation arrived in the 1950s and there has now been a substantial Anglo-Caribbean community for around 70 years — but it just makes the target of "anti-immigrant" racism a moving target, hence far right anti-Polish(!) racism.)

68:

You seem to think Putin is planning for the long term.

I think this is a mistake. He's 65: his life expectancy is probably 20-30 years (assuming he's in good health with good medical care and bucks the trend for Russian males). His goals are (a) stay on top of the oligarchy, (b) defend Mother Russia (easiest to achieve by sowing strife among enemies so that they weaken themselves), (c) make potloads of money.

He's not some modernizing Peter the Great figure, although he probably likes the image. Everything about his government is short-term reactivity, given a veneer of justification by knuckle-dragging reactionary ideologues like Dugin.

69:

The real fun is going to kick in at Brexit Day minus 183, when six-month ahead bookings/contracts open up and nobody knows what the hell is going to happen (see for example airline passenger ticket sales), and at Brexit Day minus 91, when we hit the three month countdown (90 day contracts for transport of goods, for example).

I'm guessing that unless a ton of stuff is hammered down no later than September 1st, we're going to see alarm bells ringing as sales fall off a cliff and supply chains seek to route around a perceived road-block ahead. And I'm calling it for full-on recession no later than January 1st unless we get a solid commitment to remain in the Customs Union, at a minimum.

70:

...and the BBC will still be denying that it has anything to do with brexit.

71:

Yes, indeed. But what is being completely denied in public and by the media and chattering classes, is just how irrelevant Putin is to western electoral processes - except in the same role as Emmanuel Goldstein, of course. On both sides of the pond, those in government have stated explicitly (when they were constrained against lying) that there was negligible and at most ineffectual Russian involvements in electoral processes. And the claimed links of oligarchs and politicians with Putin have repeatly shown to be no more than their links with other unsavoury political people, and to have no apparent effect other than being borderline corruption.

72:

My only issue with this article is that it seems to only pick confirmatory items.

And while it hinges on collusion, many of the things like shorting British stock are options open to anyone with money at short notice. For example the shorting stock bit. He gained no special benefit because he equally could have shorted some other countries stock... or bet the other way and anyone else could have shorted the same stock. he had no personal competitive advantage granted by brexit.

As for potential quid-quo-pro... I kinda wonder how much is more akin to examples Goldacre gives in his books about doctors and pharma companies. Pharma companies have the option of hiring unethical doctors willing to lie through their teeth and claim drug X is wonderful... but it's easier/cheaper/more proof against attack for them to give slight career boosts to individuals who legitimately and honestly believe that drug X is great and help them get their message out more effectively. It even comes with the bonus that the individual's involved can be honest, principled and incorruptible as individuals and the pharma company doesn't have to coach them or attach strings to anything.

I'm reasonably sure that many Brexit supporters, even many of the big names, honestly believe their own claims. I think they're morons... but that doesn't make them omni-evil. there's no requirement that they wake up every morning and find "evil deeds" listed in their day planner.

73:

The post-Hutton BBC will take the government line, whatever it is, and take a mixture of lines if given the opportunity. There are still a lot of competent people working for it, some of whom have no time for Brexit or the current bunch of unfunny clowns.

But back to OGH's point, it's increasingly clear that May's only skill is prevarication, as even unimaginative reporters have now realised, though few seem to have realised those contractual issues. Personally, I think that the increasing level of problems is going to have the frog-boiling effect, and the rabid Brexiteers are going to get their train crash, by default.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-won-vote-brexit-future-dominic-grieve-whips-rebellion-a8395181.html

I can't find it again, but one Web page used quotes from prominent rebels and brexiteers saying "May has promised Parliament the decision if negotiations fail" and "Nothing has been promised to the rebels". Expect more fireworks shortly.

And, of course, she has now got three constraints imposed on her as the result of her prevarication promises: "No customs union (etc.) membership", "No hard border in the Irish sea" and "No hard border between Eire and Northern Ireland". Yeah, right.

74:

Of course, Putin having at least two children and likely caring for them might change that perspective somewhat, but then, quite a few Rossiyane sending their children into Western Europe might caution against overestimating an effect...

75:

The other problem for the Tories, aside from a migration of voters away from them, was the fact that at that time a certain Jeremy Corbyn was still enjoying something of a honeymoon period as a new Labour leader. For the benefit of non-UK folks, the Labour Party of the UK started out as a workers' rights party drawing much from the ideologies of Karl Marx et al, but in recent years veers sharply towards the middle ground; the most successful Labour leader for forty-odd years (he won elections!) was Tony Blair, whose politics were almost indistinguishable from the Tory party at that time.

The Labour Party, unlike most other UK political parties, is very, very inclusive in its membership. The Tories will summarily expel members found to be far-right extremists, the Lib-dems are a happy home for idealists of every stripe provided they don't want power; Labour on the other hand welcomes left-wingers of all stripe and flavour. This makes the party somewhat schizophrenic in nature, with the membership being a heterogeneous mix of everything from closeted Blairites to rabid Marxists whereas the MPs are mostly much closer to Blair than to Marx.

Jeremy Corbyn is a very different sort of fellow, with a history of being very left-wing and thus his election to the position of Labour leader was a massive surprise to the mostly moderate, centrist Labour MPs. It was also a major shock, because his politics were very different from theirs.

The reason Labour mostly stayed quiet during the Brexit campaign was because the party was trying desperately to reconcile a near-Marxist leader with a cadre of much more moderate MPs, and having quite a difficult time of it; in short Labour had better things to be concentrating on other than the political and economic future of the UK.

76:

EC @ 71 DON'T believ you. I realise you are of the opinion that "the west" is irredeemably corrupt & no better than some tin-pot African/S American/Middle Eastern dictatorships, with merely a veneer of respectability. But, do you know: It isn't true. Yes, there are many bad things & people around, but, usually attempts & steps are taken to prevent these things. And V Putin is not irrelevant - because, like DT, he believes politics is a zero-sum game he is automatocally our enemy (unfortunately).

Dan H JC has a history of not having had an original idea since about 1975, with a political ideolgy stuck im 1934. Mpmentum are, to all intents & purposes, marxists. Ernie Bevin is probably spinning at near-mach-speed right now, with C Attlee also rotating gently. What we desperately need are more Labour MP's like mine, who is utterly brilliant, has a majority of over 20 000 & needless to say is strongly "remain" & "M" want to get rid of her, by "reselecting" some moronic marxist hack. [ Stella Creasey - if you are not familiar, please look her up. ] PLEASE EVERYBODY - much as some of us would like to imagine it's "all the fault of the evil tories" - it ain't so.

78:

Looking at the Sun's frontpage from yesterday I don't think that Murdoch changed his view on Brexit.

But reality is coming back to bite the Brexiteers. They promised something impossible and now find out they can't deliver. And even the ones who think a no-deal Brexit would be a good idea will soon find out that such a Brexit is not economically survivable by the UK.

79:

While I do consider the observation of Putin's policy as very insightful by modern standard, I would like to comment on "long term planning". In modern world hardly anyone can count on any sort of planning, much less long-term - I am talking about Real Plans, not abstract declarations to conquer Mars with the power of venture marketing and make it into a lush garden. From what I gather, the best countries of the world usually have plans until next presidential or parliamentary elections, some of the rest less powerful (Russia included) have 1 to 3 years ahead. Most countries do not posses enough sovereignty to have any plans at all. That said, for Putin having a Plan that extends at least into a decade would put him into the ethereal realm of prophets and gods, an unholy avatar of Sauron of Earth, who holds the threads of fate of this world. No, the plans are much more shorter and, supposedly, more effective at that, and everything else is only the rich imagination of people who put him into the position of evil deity.

(This is my first post in this blog comment section and thus I am well aware how my usual didactic or sarcastic tone may be perceived by other people. I chose not to falter. My knowledge on topics like this originates from many hours of semi-official political debates I regularly watch on radio-TV-YT.)

80:

You should try reading and inwardly digesting what I post before reacting, as well as reading a few less establishment sources; try Private Eye, for a start. Despite my low-level and very indirect contact with official actions, I also have knowledge of a good many such episodes that did NOT come to Lord Gnome's ear. To mention just one very public example, remember the Saudi arms affair? If you have any evidence that Putin or Russia has done anything beyond that which has been done by the USA and Israel, why don't you contact one of the inquiries? Because nothing has been published.

Your remark about mental attitudes was irrelevant.

To repeat: But what is being completely denied in public and by the media and chattering classes, is just how irrelevant Putin is to western electoral processes - except in the same role as Emmanuel Goldstein, of course.

81:

Actually, it's probably WE who will discover that - they are mostly in positions where they are not dependent on the UK economy :-(

82:

AV Spot on Just for once I agree with EC - they are immune to Brexit - but, even so, reality is approaching, & as Charlie says, as the deadlines of 6 months & 90 days cut in, a withdrawl of At 59 gets more likely. BUT ... Because of the Brexiteers' ;oudmouthings, it has GOT to be closely-timed, or they will scream "betrayal" at every opportunity. They are not yet discredited enough.

[ E.C. I've been a Private Eye subscriber for over 20 years ... ]

84:

To fall back to my original idea of commenting on The Pivot, I want to spell out the point of view of outsider observer. It is because, as they say, larger things are more visible from the distance.

I do not venture too often into English sources and my primary source of information is not the mainstream media. Of course they are necessary for prominently volumetric understanding of situation, but build anything on their "assumptions" is beyond my self-respect. While most sources continue to post unrelenting and unstoppable flow of articles telling the story of Russia's Malign Activity (I do not know if modern jurisprudence does indeed have such term in use, it smells of witch hunt), there are always critics, and some of them aren't even connected to Russian government or nation. In mainstream media they are, unsurprisingly: a) distorted b) ignored c) used as to prove the opposite of their intentions.

For what I am more used to deal with for the last decade of observations (I count from 08.2008), there's roughly two pressing concern standing before Russian Federation: economical and military issues. They are not abstract concerns of ideology or influence, like a election FB ads or talking to foreign officials. Economical issues include very concrete measures to block flow of sales, investments, technology and materials, industry cooperation and alike. This also includes ignoring national jurisdictions and laws, boycotting or pressing of international organizations, kidnapping nationals, arresting of property and assets and so on. As for the military action, this article can probably give a hint about what is coming through. There are, of course, theological calculations behind these acts, why would anyone do that and what is the goal, but they come after the fact.

Now, for better understanding, I have to assure everybody that these measures did not start in recent years, no-no. They have been persistent for the whole post-Soviet period, effectively locking the country behind well-polished and properly decorated Iron Curtain. It is only in the recent years that the country started to reveal itself outside it's borders, the pressure and renewed efforts started to mount exponentially. To put it into perspective, as it turns out, Russia is NOT primary target of this activity by US and satellites. Russia is an asymptotic vanishing point of these measures, it is closely guarded by ICBM early warning system and nuclear arsenal, as well as decent army. US may gravitate towards the red line but will never cross it by itself. The primary target of pressure, by all definitions of it, is (now) the US satellites. All such measures are acting as unbearable burden on members of G7, and, as time progresses, their desperation becomes more palpable.

So what do I make out of it, what will happen soon? Nothing special. Probably UK will make another case that will surpass Scripal case by a long run (though this would be a hard task to do in several areas of expertise). Probably. But it will not lead anywhere, since there's no substantial premise for any change of course - the miracle would not happen, and The Pivot will again become but a trick of the light.

85:

But, Charlie - no large percentage of "unassimilate? And here I thought all o' ye Scots, and some Cymry.....

86:

I disagree. I see him acting as a very experienced and competant ex-KGB officer. Certainly, it appears from here that he's literally running DT (and giving us all the dt's). I really have a hard time seeing Trump breaking the Western Alliance by sheer ignorance and tantrums.

We also know that if he doesn't actually control some of the Russian big money - banks, gold mines, etc - he and they would certainly fall into the category of "one dirty hand washing the other", and I'd guess they all resent what the West did to the USSR, and want to return the favor.

So, yes, there is a "malign influence". Of course, Trumpolini & co were directly involved: I figure that when he goes down, a serious chunk of world money-laundering is going to either be shut down, or extremely discommoded.

87:

Note interesting use of English by Sleepingroutine at number 84. It hints of a Russian accent. Normally I wouldn't criticize - I was raised in the U.S. andI'm pretty much monolingual - but I think OGH has come to the attention of important people who wish to influence debate.

...point of view of outsider observer.

"an outside observer?"

...prominently volumetric understanding of situation, but build anything on their "assumptions" is beyond...

"of the situation, but to build anything?"

"continue to post unrelenting and unstoppable flow of articles"

"post an unrelenting?"

And note particularly the spelling of "Scripal," which I've only found in one place - an article by the Russian Ambassador to ASEAN in the Jakarta Post. Everyone else spells it "Skripal."

From where do you hail, Sleepingroutine?

Charlie, my apologies if I've broken any blog rules, but Sleepingroutine looks like "Fake News" to me.

88:

I am perfectly fine with Brexit. Maybe the EU can evolve in a more sustainable direction without that particular albatross around the neck of Brussels?

The way I see things, the UK only initially joined in order to derail the project. When that didn't pan out the UK position was being all "free-market", a sometimes even virulent supporter of an ideology of "Freedom for Markets, Capital and Business preferably at the expense of people - especially Foreigners and Socialists". The ECJ sometimes got in the way of that mission, hence the decades of pure hatred lavished upon it.

I think the pivoting is all virtue-signalling; Everyone, even that generally dum-dum British executive class, now knows the entire affair will be a disaster and now they want to be recorded in history as having "... reasoned to the very best of their ability ... yet all these other people simply would not listen to reason ...".

"The Pivot" will come apart as soon as it is tested. It is more of the usual UK "we are very special so you people must somehow arrange your affairs around our special and more important needs."

While failing to recognise still that, the EU is holding all of the cards at this point. To cancel the process there will not only be much groveling but also real concessions to be made to Brussels.

No way any British in any from of Authority will tolerate (or perhaps survive) that.

The Germans / French might not either - the losses from Brexit are already written off, adjustments made to business plans and now they are looking to take a chunk out of The City and maybe even do something about those pesky tax-havens too. That would be popular amongst the citizenry.

Brussels are already testing the waters. There is a new directive coming up for 2 months maternity leave for fathers. The Neo-Linberal regime in Denmark are literally fuming over the proposal, but, now without Britain helping to block this proposal for them, they will have to suck it right up!

https://politiken.dk/indland/politik/art6580770/EUs-plan-om-øremærket-barsel-til-mænd-møder-stor-modstand-blandt-Folketingets-partier

The train has left the platform. It is unstoppable, just like the Brexiteers wanted.

89:

But, Charlie - no large percentage of "unassimilate? And here I thought all o' ye Scots, and some Cymry.....

Those are no-shit entire countries, not immigrant minorities. Different context.

90:

From where do you hail, Sleepingroutine?

To be fair, sleepingroutine isn't trying to hide anything: The email address they registered with incorporates the name "anton petrov", which is just possibly a clue.

Given that the news environment in Russia is ever so slightly different to what we marinate in here, this looks like honest engagement to me, and as such, is not a breach of the moderation policy.

91:

I think that you (i.e. USA people) are trying to evade responsibility; oh, yes, Putin is taking advantage of Trump, but he is your very own King Stork, elected on a platform of opposing every political convention of the past few decades.

I said "western electoral processes", and there is damn all evidence for (and quite a lot against) him having had any serious effect on the election, or even having done more interference than is SOP for almost all countries with an international presence. Compared with the electoral meddling of the USA and (until quite recently) UK, that's not even visible!

92:

On the gripping hand, note the content of his post, though I must concede his sentiments may be sincere.

93:

Almost everything he said can be checked in the western press, and is factually correct. In what way do you claim that is fake news?

94:

Oh, I see, even though this time I tried to be more eloquent then I usually am, it doesn't take too much for educated person to spot the irregularities. Maybe if I was a Fake News job for real, I wouldn't make such obvious mistakes, but I'm taking my own interest in collecting the news and stories. Listening to alternative opinions, they sometimes expose things hilarious or terrifying.

It doesn't take too much these days to learn English as a second language, especially if you are a member of some gaming community or sci-fi enthusiast. And at least in part, it comes from reading Charlie's books, so you can thank him later.

95:

My view on Putin is that he's somewhat modernizing but isn't into full-on modernization as we know it. Keep in mind that this is limited to western sources, so I'm not sure how accurate the picture is.

  • I haven't seen it reported outside of Bloomberg, but Putin is trying to improve Russia's agricultural sector. This is a smart move since Russia has the potential to be a huge agricultural exporter beyond just soybeans
  • https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-03/importing-apple-trees-instead-of-apples-russia-secures-its-food

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-17/china-buys-record-amount-of-russian-soy-as-it-shuns-u-s-growers

  • His view on manufacturing is: "we can buy it from the West or from China. We don't really need a non-military manufacturing sector". See his decision to exit the commercial satellite market rather than compete with SpaceX and China's space program.
  • https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/04/russia-appears-to-have-surrendered-to-spacex-in-the-global-launch-market/

  • He seems to be trying to improve the standard of living in large cities. I don't know if this extends outside of Moscow and Saint Petersburg?
  • https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/jun/08/is-the-moscow-experiment-over-gorky-park-sergei-kapkov-alexei-navalny

    Interesting tidbit: Russia has an urbanization rate close to that of Germany (74% vs 75.3%) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_by_country

  • He's using Syria to forge an informal alliance with Iran. To do any overland trading between China and Europe, you have three options: Russia, Iran, an underwater tunnel in the Caspian Sea.

  • I don't know if this news source is accurate. If true, opening a base in Somaliland + expanding the bases in Syria shows that Putin is trying to create a new sphere of influence outside of Russia's traditional sphere. How much influence over the Suez canal traffic would this base give him?

  • http://capitalethiopia.com/2018/04/30/russia-first-military-base-somaliland/

    What I don't know?

  • What is his view on immigration into Russia, especially from the stans.

  • What is his view on China's One-Belt-One Road policy? Does he resent the role of China muscling into Russia's traditional sphere? Is he delighted or upset that this project could increase living standards to the point it removes the incentive for the people there to immigrate to Russia?

  • 96:

    That is the bright side to Brexit :-(

    To be fair, the UK did NOT sign the Maastricht treaty (or, earlier, join the EEC) in order to sabotage the EU. That came later, when the EU was adopting - shock! horror! - the approach of standing up for citizens' rights, civil liberties, humanitarianism, ecological responsibility and even (now I must wash my mouth out with soap!) socialism. I have been saying for some time that the UK has been acting as the USA military-industrial complex's fifth column in the EU, which is why most of Washington were pressing the UK to stay in.

    97:

    ... the US government is less firm on shackling states and municipalities to the Dollar than Brussels is on requiring the Euro.

    This is a recurring theme that totally baffles me.

    From where I sit, getting the Euro is a reward that countries get if a) they want it (and most do so very much) and b) they show that their economy is stable enough. Thus also previous governments of Greece cheating and lying to get the Euro.

    Why do Brits think that anybody wants to force them on the Euro?

    If you do cross-border commerce, different currencies are a right pain in the backside, but that's a companies argument, not a politicians or EU administration argument.

    98:

    the German problem is more complex. TLDR is that Joe Voter in no country anywhere truly understands the difference between a household budget and a national budget

    The other thing is that memories of the hyperinflation in Germany 1914 to 1923 persist, although by now in the third generation (the generation that lived through it consciously no longer has many members, but I doubt I'm the only person my age who got told by their grandparents how awful it was). This results in the word "inflation" being a bad one, evoking ghosts of destitution and despair, not of banks paying decent interest.

    99:

    A bunch of thoughts in no particular order:

    A lot of the maneuvering is the old Great Game problem of who controls the center of Asia (the land routes), who controls the periphery (the sea routes), and which control is more important. In terms of moving goods, shipping over water is more efficient than even hauling by rail or pipeline. Pipelines are better for volume, but in terms of sheer efficiency, controlling the waves is the most important. Hence, of course, the British Empire's power, even though it's the UK is dinky. Controlling the overland movement of stuff isn't necessarily as cool as it sounds, because it's cheaper to send a cargo ship through a canal or around the capes.

    Putin's still wed to the petrochemical industry, so control of gas fields and pipelines is important to him. I suspect that if the world makes a jump to non-nuclear renewable power, Russia's going to be left in the dust, except for a lot of windmills powering its cities. Still, if you think about his controlling land as about controlling Central Asian oil, what he's doing with Iran makes sense.

    A big part of the USSR's food productivity was in Ukraine. Hence, Ukrainian independence was a Bad Thing, and the West courting Ukraine was an Even Worse Thing. Yes, there's the whole mess around the Aral Sea, but that's not panning out the way Soviet planners expected it to.

    100:

    Russia is replacing its older nuclear reactors and expanding its fleet like some other oil and gas-exporting countries such as the UAE and Iran which are building or expanding their own nuclear power plants. Using nuclear power at home means they can export more oil and especially gas to renewables-obsessed nations such as Germany which are abandoning their own nuclear fleets.

    Rosatom is also exporting reactors -- China has just inked a deal to build four more VVER-series PWRs, India is getting a couple at Koodankulam and a number of other countries such as Finland and Egypt are interested.

    101:

    Charlie, my apologies if I've broken any blog rules, but Sleepingroutine looks like "Fake News" to me.

    Oh FFS.

    New poster sounds ever so slightly foreign and you subject them to intense scrutiny to determine whether they're a Russian agent or not?

    And Charlie, I do not blame you at all for checking the credentials of a new poster - it's your blog, you should keep an eye on the guests. But going public with their name? How would it look to you if a customs officer announced at Heathrow airport "It's OK folks, I don't think Mr Petrov is a Russian spy"?

    And oh yeah, Russians emigrate too. I'm sitting next to an _ov at my workplace in Canberra, Australia. Nice guy. No reason at all to believe he's a KGB dissemination agent. (And now I'm just waiting for "of course he wouldn't be obvious".)

    102:

    It wasn't just the language but the content. As I noted above, I'm a monolingual American, and his English is a lot better than my Russian! (I really don't want to be a hypocrite here!) I didn't write a long post because I'm in the middle of moving right now, read number 84 and pay some real attention to the content:

    "US may gravitate towards the red line but will never cross it by itself. The primary target of pressure, by all definitions of it, is (now) the US satellites. All such measures are acting as unbearable burden on members of G7, and, as time progresses, their desperation becomes more palpable."

    In short, it wasn't just the foreign sounds of the speaker! Trump does as Putin wishes, gives the G-7 a hard time, and this guy shows up on Charlie's blog a couple days later pushing the Trump/Putin party line in a post which argues that Brexit might not happen!

    103:

    I'm sitting next to an _ov at my workplace in Canberra, Australia. Nice guy. No reason at all to believe he's a KGB

    Round here ex-Russians are more likely to be Mossad than KGB :)

    ... at least in my experience. We have a fair number of religious Jews who arrived via Israel, often with one or more generatons between departing the motherland and arriving in terror nullis.

    104:

    ""We don't really need a non-military manufacturing sector"."

    Unless you need to support a large military manufacturing sector. This assumes a major separation.

    105:

    "A sane president in the US could offer a much better deal to the UK."

    And when was the last time the U.S. had a "sane" President?

    106:
    “Trump can only even theoretically pardon himself for federal crimes”

    "... while he is president. If Mueller or whatever convict him after he leaves office he's going to have to rely on whoever gets it next to pardon him. Which, fingers crossed, would mean 8 years served before the next Republican president."

    IF he can pardon himself, he can pardon himself for any crimes he "might" have committed, without actually admitting he'd committed any crimes. That was the deal when Ford pardoned Nixon. Nixon hadn't been formally accused or indicted when Ford pardoned him for Watergate. Nixon was never required to admit guilt.

    There's also the Iran/Contra precedent of lame duck George H.W. Bush pardoning all the witnesses against him before their trials could even be scheduled.

    I think there's a good chance that if the courts were to rule against Trump in such a situation - a low probability given the way the GOP is currently packing the courts, but it might happen - there would actually be a right-wingnut insurrection seeking to impose a "second amendment solution".

    I hope I'm wrong and just being alarmist. I'm afraid I'm not.

    107:

    IF he can pardon himself, he can pardon himself for any crimes he "might" have committed, without actually admitting he'd committed any crimes

    I presume that's only past tense - he can't pardon himself for crimes he hasn't committed yet? What about ones that haven't been discovered yet? I'm thinking Mueller might be smart enough to delay the big reveal until after Trump has lost the ability to pardon shitself.

    Also, geez, talk about a loophole you could drive a truck through. It seems like something so obviously wrong and stupid that the men that wrote that should be dug up, hanged, burnt at the stake, then reburied someone no-one has to deal with their idiocy any more.

    John Holbo at Crooked Timber has an interesting sunk costs fallacy (partial) explanation for how the Trumpists have ended up where they are. Loosely, by starting out with accepting only slightly crazy lies his supporters are now having to say "do I admit to being an idiot for accepting past lies, or do I support the new lie" every time the crazy one ramps it up another notch.

    108:

    "Controlling the overland movement of stuff isn't necessarily as cool as it sounds, because it's cheaper to send a cargo ship through a canal or around the capes."

    If it's so inconsequential as you make it seem, then why is China spending so much money building the New Silk Road? Overland trade won't dwarf seagoing trade, but I think China is right that it still can grow. After all, we have a lot of coast-to-coast shipments in trains and trucks in North America instead of using the Panama Canal.

    "Still, if you think about his controlling land as about controlling Central Asian oil, what he's doing with Iran makes sense."

    Oil is probably part of it, but I'm not convinced it's the primary motivation. Underwater pipeline technology is advanced enough that you can build a pipeline under the Caspian Sea from Kazakhstan to Azerbaijan while bypassing both Russia and Iran.

    "Yes, there's the whole mess around the Aral Sea, but that's not panning out the way Soviet planners expected it to."

    Actually, part of the Aral Sea is recovering nicely. TLDR. The Aral Sea is divided between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan's been getting a lot of money due to its oil reserve, and being the main headquarters of Western companies investing in the New Silk Road (China and Iran are out for obvious reasons). They've been using the money to repair their share of the Aral Sea. Uzbekistan is still too poor and cotton is still too important to their exports to try and fix it. In other words, only the Uzbek Aral Sea is still dying.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Aral_Sea

    109:

    A sane president in the US could offer a much better deal to the UK. And Brussels might come to their senses and realize that Schengen and free trade are more important than the Euro,

    I am sorry, this is exactly the kind of reasoning that make people in Europe understand that Brexit is probably worth all of the (rather small) costs and more - an opportunity!

    The British Empire is Dead, Dead and Still Dead! Yet, still it seems like Britain expects all of the world to just do whatever is convenient to the British at the moment. Like America but without the "bennies" and the military to at least offer either a little something in return (or a "humanitarian intervention").

    The forces of Markets and Politics are aligning, because Brexit is not only a political opportunity.

    Everyone here knows that here is a lot of mis-investment sitting on the books all over the place, overhanging "the economy". Interest rates should be raised and disposable income needs to be increased to allow the servicing of stupidly large loans which people could barely afford at 1% p/a.

    So, If the ECB tightens, as it really should, it will cause an inconvenient price discovery of many things, like Italian bonds, Stocks and of course Stockholm-ian real estate.

    But ... What if Brexit "does it"?

    Then it will all be totally the fault of Unreasonable Other People, quite rightly an "Exceptional Situation that no-one could never, ever have foreseen", any matter of "Special Measures" are surely in order just for this unique-never-again-market-event ... The Can is kicked a decade or so down the road for southern Europe and everyone gets to clean out their books and look like Heros for the following five-six accounting cycles! Love and Glittering Unicorns of Growff is all around!!

    Brexit is a done deal, it is so done that the latest stupidity of Boris or May is not even in the news any more here. The "techies" are running it, while "management" are looking to cook the books of the future.

    110:

    JBS @ 105 And when was the last time the U.S. had a "sane" President?

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ fjansen @ 109 Sorry, I don't follow what you are saying.

    111:

    It would most definitely be a good thing if countermeasures are taken to limit the damage and they should be taken. It's just unfortunate that the younger voters, who have the most to gain, couldn't be bothered to show up and vote against brexit in larger numbers than they did.

    Looking at it from outside the UK I found this (about the first 15 seconds) to be an excellent recap of the pro-brexit arguments. Turn the volume knob to 11.

    112:

    The other thing is that memories of the hyperinflation in Germany 1914 to 1923 persist, although by now in the third generation (the generation that lived through it consciously no longer has many members, but I doubt I'm the only person my age who got told by their grandparents how awful it was). This results in the word "inflation" being a bad one, evoking ghosts of destitution and despair, not of banks paying decent interest.

    Yes indeed. When I went round Europe to watch the Euro come in, I was very kindly given a tour of the Bundesbank Geldmuseum. They had a display about the last time monetary union happened (if you ignore from East-West unification in 1990), in 1871. Apart from that, every exhibit was devoted to explaining the importance of monetary stability. There was even a game console that let you play a kind of Virtual Economy, where as Schatzkanzler, you'd have to chose between fiscal policies. A video then lectured you on which ones carried the least risk of provoking inflation.

    More economics education was added by one of the odder comic strips I've seen anywhere: a 1985 strip by the Fed explaining the principle of comparative advantage.

    In the Bundesbank shop, the message continued: amongst the Euro lapel badges and pulped-Deutschmark toilet rolls were copies of a coffee-table book about the history of Deutschmark art, including a chapter on the hyperinflationary years, with cartoons by Grosz. I wanted to buy a copy, but my cash had run out and the Bundesbank didn't take credit cards. (They did, though, give me a copy of Fifty Years of the Deutsche Mark. Central Bank and the Currency in Germany since 1948, which was really nice of them.)

    113:

    The real fun is going to kick in at Brexit Day minus 183, when six-month ahead bookings/contracts open up and nobody knows what the hell is going to happen (see for example airline passenger ticket sales), and at Brexit Day minus 91, when we hit the three month countdown (90 day contracts for transport of goods, for example).

    Ah. I'd automatically discounted the bit about manufacturing growth falling, because we seem to have been being warned about problems with British productivity since at least the 30s. But yes, I'd not thought about the advance effects on supply-chain planning.

    114:

    going public with their name?

  • It's not a unique or particularly uncommon name. (And I have no way of knowing whether it's real, but ...)

  • Other information (which I am not disclosing) suggests that they're not in the west. (I may be wrong: VPNs are a thing, I'm not omniscient.)

  • Mostly I wanted to slam the lid down on that sort of insinuation about the good intentions of commenters here. The comments on this blog are w-a-y too low-profile to attract the interests of state propaganda media; if I have good reason to suspect otherwise I'll take action with the moderators, otherwise I welcome honest discussion and debate.

  • 115:

    And when was the last time the U.S. had a "sane" President?

    About a year and a half ago, and receding in the rear-view mirror.

    Incidentally, if anyone still thinks Barack Obama was weak and ineffective, we're now getting a close up and personal view of the forces that opposed everything he tried to do, now roaring triumphantly behind Trump.

    In retrospect I'm astonished at how much progress he achieved, in the face of a congress and senate dominated by people we can now clearly see as neo-Nazi sympathizers and quislings.

    116:

    I wouldn't be too sure of that, actually, but it's almost certainly true in this case. As far as Russia and the UK goes, I don't believe that either put 10% of the resources into Internet propaganda that the other side claims they do :-)

    I have personal experience that multinationals sometimes trawl and troll into places that you would never imagine they had heard of (and were much less influential than your blog), and repeated second-hand experience that at least one country (neither of those two) does the same.

    117:

    The other thing is that memories of the hyperinflation in Germany 1914 to 1923 persist…

    And the other other thing is that memories of the currency reform (sorry, no English version) in 1948—which ended the inflationary post-war shadow economy (and rationing) and launched the Wirtschaftswunder—also persist.

    In other words: ordinary Germans lost their monetary wealth to hyperinflation not once, but twice in the last century. The psychological impact of that cannot be overestimated. The result is a very strong fetish for a hard currency and an almost irrational aversion against inflation shared by the population, politicians, and economists alike (and enshrined in the Bundesbank Geldmuseum as described by Jocelyn Ireson-Paine in #112).

    (As an aside: the fact that both hyperinflationary phases were the results of wars started by Germany is of very little significance here; the issue of responsibility for the wars and the horrible consequences of the wars for the German population are neatly compartmentalized. Germans—like everybody else—tend to see themselves as victims of horrible times, although we have at least taken some steps at dealing with our being responsible for the horrors (see Vergangenheitsbewältigung, which interestingly does exist in the English Wikipedia).)

    118:

    ...there was negligible and at most ineffectual Russian involvements in electoral processes

    I'll accept that, if we're talking about direct involvement...

    ...but if you look at the flow of refugees, I do wonder about "causation or correlation" between Merkel's August 2015 offer to welcome Syrian refugees; and the Russian September 2015 start of military involvement in Syria.

    Did the increase in violence made possible by the new Russian military support, cause a resurgence in the number of refugees fleeing Syria? Certainly, the extremist groups did well out of all those pictures of refugees walking towards Europe - in Eastern Europe, Austria, Germany, and even the UK.

    Could a swell of refugees* have been a "politically beneficial" side-effect of Russia's military support for Assad? Would it count as a second-order involvement - and if so, was it ineffectual?

    • Note that the Russians have far fewer "smart" weapons as a result of ITAR etc, and use unguided cluster weapons and "dumb" bombs. Throw in lower average skill levels than most Western air forces (restricted flying training hours due to restricted money) and add a greater tolerance for collateral casualties. If you live a mile from a possible target, pray that it's NATO doing the bombing...
    119:

    Errr- Same Old, Same Old.

    The restoration of the Libyan slave markets for black Africans happened totally on Obama's watch and Yemen kicked in during his presidency. With the help of Donald Trumps military providing supplies and logistics for the feckless the Saudis, they can turn it into a glorious genocide worthy of Biafra!

    Except it will never get in the news like Biafra did!

    120:

    why is China spending so much money building the New Silk Road?

    According to some of my Chinese friends, one reason is to give a trade route to Europe that isn't controlled by the US navy. No idea how true that is, or even where my friends heard it.

    121:

    I thought the real reason was obvious?

    Rail freight, even across borders with customs stops, moves at 30-40mph. Container ships virtually never go above 20mph, and have to take a somewhat longer route, too.

    So rail freight from China to Europe occupies an intermediate cost/speed niche, between air freight (very fast, very expensive) and shipping (slow, cheap).

    The "bypasses the sea lanes controlled by the USN" is simply a bonus.

    122:

    I suspect that each reason is primary in the minds of different people in China - including those in the inner caucus!

    Simply closing the Panama and possibly Suez canals to Hong Kong registered shipping and shipping lines that trade with China would have a major financial impact. Yeah, that's insane, but ....

    123:

    if you close the panama canal to ships that trade with china you don't need a panama canal. Also Trans Siberian railways been going for a while for exactly the reasons charlie said

    124:

    Standards of living are improving everywhere, and in more minor cities as well - this is considered to be a normal process for any developing country. People are more worried about economy recovery. Seriously, the entire concept of modern economy in Russia is so much bonkers it shouldn't be working normally. I mean, if Russia would be just a normal overly connected country, it would take Obama several weeks to string some directives to bring it on the knees and wait for the ambassador to show up in tears and apologizing. Unfortunately for US, by barring a nation from free trade from the very beginning, they outplayed themselves. (Not that it helps with development itself in any way, but again, for average Russian, sovereignty is much more important.)

    But then, there are other countries around, their economies are pretty much a joke. I just checked today - combined GDP (by PPP no less) of both Ukraine (30+ million ppl) and Belarus (9+ million) is, COMBINED, less than that GNP of Moscow city, which is, in turn, only about 17% of total country GDP. This is a very sorry situation for all post-USSR republics, and especially for Ukraine, which pretty much lost ALL of it's industry since the end of USSR to corruption and foreign involvement. Seriously, right after 1991, they've had a second largest army in Europe, huge agricultural sector (albeit outdated), and industry that could match 20% of total USSR output (not a joke, you see). It took US a whole generation of "democracy" to turn everything into heathen-infested ruin. Nobody is expecting anything but chaos from this place any more.

    Compared to that, Russian Federation is well off - it has industry and innovation projects, large hub of connections, and its internal economy is not as affected by oil prices as people would like to believe. Putin and his team are working on establishing of a new status quo with "import replacement", which means that sanctioned and counter-sanctioned products are to be replaced by local equivalents. This is the situation not only necessary for survival of the country itself, but promising development in the future, in the entire region and beyond, and the government is inspired by agriculture sector success. Even with this in mind, the country in no way intends to survive in complete isolation a-la North Korea, so all of this is very uncertain.

    Immigration policy is pretty interesting and I did not look well into it. It seems, with effects of Eurasian Economic Union and China influence the living standards are beginning to rise in these countries and many people opt to return back to their homeland. I wonder if government has any goddamn clue what to make out of it.

    125:

    Brad Delong has linked to this site a few times including most recently this "The Pivot" thread. This may pull in a different audience with new commenters and new perspectives. Always better to be talking than shooting.

    I remember Krugman inviting guests onto his blog to report on eastern European politics. Immediately afterwards there would be a surge of obvious trolling which would last a few days. Mixed in would be apparently legitimate commenters with views that were often divergent from typical western positions.

    126:

    On so called Silk Road ("Silk Way" is the historical concept).

    Several years back I checked the numbers myself with some research articles. Rail-road is a really great way to transport cargo, it is stable and fast, however, not without inherent problems. It turns out, specific cost of transportation for every kilometre rises for every transport type at different rates, and at distance surpassing several thousands kilometres, it is still cheaper to freight by sea. That means that, the defining feature of the project is not the cost itself, but rather a cost of interacting with US jurisdiction (read: a decadent, oppressive financial empire with interest in every corner of the Earth). For example, about 7-9 month ago a service called AliExpress did a big hit on markets and everybody were looking to buy cheap Chinese goods with no inherent brand overpricing (I myself tried using it, but only with partial success, a part of the order never made it to my mailbox). Moreover, nobody did mention the Northern Sea Route, in this direction US is really falling behind and is visibly nervous at times.

    Nevertheless, there are still issues. The project is under way for several years now, but it is not making too much progress because of the specific cause. It is designed to connect, so to say, Beijing to Berlin with a whole corridor of roads and rail-roads through most direct route, but if Berlin is not in position to uphold conditions of it's end of the deal, the entire idea is in danger. As you may know, US is mounting political and military blockade in Eastern Europe for quite a while now, and nobody knows how far this going to go, with or without Trump. The EU is completely impotent to do anything about "anti-Russian" sanctions that hurt it's economy and energy safety, and at very best, every country is going to try to survive on it's own. I would say, I already saw enough articles and discussions with the same recurring theme (in fact, some of them were written as far as 8-10 years ago) - if it all goes down, everybody is going to survive by themselves. In this light, in hindsight, Brexit is not at all a bad decision, but it really depends how thoroughly the government is going to react to the situation.

    127:

    Cost isn't the only issue - semi-perishables like citrus fruit are vulnerable to delays, and people don't like orders that take ages to arrive. And those are precisely the goods that are most sensitive to actions like closing the Panama canal (or even holding ships for a week to search them).

    You have misunderstood the UK's situation. We have essentially NO natural resources, and insufficient potential agriculture to even feed ourselves. Worse, 50 years ago, we had one of the most highly skilled workforces in the world (and THE most skilled in IT), and that was still true to some extent 30 years ago, but 30 years of actively deskilling means that is no longer true. Much of our manufacturing and related income is from multinationals who use us as a 'business-friendly' country within the EU. And a lot of our 'service' income comes from financial and related areas, which rely on being part of the EU. So we are in a MUCH worse position than Russia.

    128:
    A local allotment society would not change its rules on a 50% +1. All the legal precedent "citrine" etc are pretty clear that a major constitutional changes should be 2/3 or 75%

    The Fifteenth Amendment of the Constitution of Ireland's Yes vote: 50.28% That wasn't one of the procedural ones. Take this existence disproof and.... consider how foolishly arrogant (and, given the average population of this blog, unthinkingly colonialist) global "should" statements look in a complicated world.

    129:

    Don't look at me when you say "trying to evade". We've got our own sociopathic ultrarich, who've been playing the racism and other religion card for well over a century, and their targets, folks with next to nothing ("but you're so much better off than Those People, and they want to take it away from you!"). Their targets, having just a little to lose, not nothing, and not a lot, are desperate. You folks have, of course, never seen anything like that (as he shoves NI out the door behind him and closes the door).

    Evade? Fuck, I've apologized to my kids that this was not the future I'd expected or intended to leave them.

    And "Second Amendment solutions" have nothing on "oh, isn't it a shame they ate that bad lettuce/caught Legionaires' disease/BOOM (not "bang") solutions.

    Damn it, why are those damn asteroids ignoring my orders?

    130:

    "Banks paying decent interest"? When has that happened? On the other hand, I'm thinking of the house my ex and I bought in '82?, and paid 14%? 16% on the mortgage.

    131:

    Naturally, I wasn't speaking personally! But my point stands: blaming Putin or Russia for any of the electoral or governmental dysfunctionality in either the USA or UK (including Brexit) IS trying to evade responsibility. Putin and Russia are totally irrelevant. Our countries got themselves into their current messes without external assistance - even (in the UK's case) the harm we are getting from your side of the pond, we deliberately chose to import.

    132:

    While I think it's normal for any country to try to influence any election, I also think that it's not only normal but desirable for any country to punish those who take foreign funding to promote political ends that hurt their country while enriching those who acted as foreign agents. In that regard, yes, the US right wing (including groups like the NRA) have quite a lot to answer for. Just because someone offers you the political equivalent of heroin, it doesn't follow that you have to become a junkie or worse, a dealer. That's what's happened in the US. It was just as bad when the left wing took money from the Soviets.

    133:

    And here I thought that Georgia was the grain basket of the USSR.

    134:

    Don't be silly, they don't have the resources for that.

    Um, here, speak a little more loudly, so I can hear you as I transmit to Langley....

    135:

    Everyone assumed Ford's pardon was payment for Tricky Dick resigning, rather than waiting to be impeached.

    Bush, Sr., DO NOT GET ME STARTED about the Bushes and their backers.... Fucking traitors....

    Trouble with Trumpolini is he and all his family are all so deep in. First shot's been fired - the NY state AG has filed a lawsuit against his "family foundation", wanting several mil $, dissolving it, and banning him from being head of any nonprofit in NY state for 10 years, and his kids banned for 1 yr.

    There's a lot more coming.

    136:

    Totally non-political, just a small grammatical thing that always drives me nuts (and too many native speakers of English can't deal with it): "it's" is a contraction of "it is", while "its" is possessive, that it, something belongs to it. So, [it's|it is] correct to say that its language is English.

    Does that make sense?

    138:

    We all know that Putin's just a big ol' cuddly teddy-bear who only robs from the rich to give to the poor like Robin Hood or Al Capone.

    139:

    It's in Ukraine's flag, the blue sky above the yellow wheat fields...

    140:

    I see Corbyn lost 89 - 15 in favor of leaving the Common Market, and 74 in favor of staying in it.

    141:

    Troutwaxer @ 87:

    "From where do you hail, Sleepingroutine?"

    "Charlie, my apologies if I've broken any blog rules, but Sleepingroutine looks like "Fake News" to me."

    I hadn't considered it from that angle, but "Sleepingroutine" does come across like a sock puppet for a certain party line that denies the possibility that those who control the modern Russian state would ever engage in extra-legal actions inimical to EU/UK/US interests or to the interests of the breakaway states of the former USSR.

    If I'm out of line here, please accept my apology as well.

    142:
    “IF he can pardon himself, he can pardon himself for any crimes he "might" have committed, without actually admitting he'd committed any crimes”

    "I presume that's only past tense - he can't pardon himself for crimes he hasn't committed yet? What about ones that haven't been discovered yet?"

    Any crimes committed prior to a pardon would be covered by that pardon, whether they'd been uncovered or not. Crimes committed after he's no longer able to issue pardons would not. Pence or some future occupant of the Oval Office would have to pardon him. You can't pardon a future criminal act that has not yet been committed. There's really no such thing as a "Get out of jail free" card.

    I'm not real sure about a pardon's effect on ON GOING criminal activities. I don't know whether the SCOTUS would rule that acts begun before a pardon, but continued after that pardon was granted would be covered or not.

    I would think any continuing action after a pardon would NOT be covered, but stranger things have happened.

    143:

    Fine. It's rarely as direct as simply receiving money, especially in the UK - that's Not How Things Are Done - but let's expand it to cover what Putin/Russia is accused of.

    Putin and Russia are STILL irrelevant! Because there is little evidence that the actions were being used to harm either the USA or UK, because the amounts were piffling compared to other such deals, and because there is no evidence that they actually had any serious effect!

    Anyway, in the UK, the country that benefits from such corruption is the USA, by a country mile; Russia is nowhere. How much of it is official, how much has official involvement, how much is USA multinationals acting on their own, and how much is the UK arse-licking, I can't say.

    144:

    You're right that the Silk Road as initially envisioned by China (Beijing to Berlin) is on life support. If the trains have to travel through countries that are under sanctions (Iran and Russia), that makes any investments very risky. However, a Silk Road that ends in St. Petersburg, Istanbul, and Beirut is still viable. While Russia + Turkey + Iran + Syria + Iraq are poorer and have a smaller population than the European Union (~370 million vs ~511 million), that market is still a large and lucrative one for China. Plus, China has to invest abroad to recycle the currency it gets from trade. In short, I don't expect China to abide by any US or EU sanctions. If Russia and China can get the Northeast Passage to work, more power to them.

    "This is a very sorry situation for all post-USSR republics, and especially for Ukraine, which pretty much lost ALL of it's industry since the end of USSR to corruption and foreign involvement."

    This is not actually correct. First, I prefer to use GDP (PPP) per capita, since that corrects for population. By that measure, the best performing ex-USSR republics are

  • The Baltics (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania)
  • Kazakhstan and Russia ($26,929 vs $28,957)
  • Azerbaijan and Belarus (worse than Russia but on par with China's $18,066 GDP PPP per capita)
  • Everyone else (Turkmenistan may be better, I don't know enough about the country to comment)
  • "It took US a whole generation of "democracy" to turn everything into heathen-infested ruin. Nobody is expecting anything but chaos from this place any more."

    We still lead or are tied with China in several industries.

  • We are tied with China in Machine Learning

  • SpaceX's reusable spacecraft have already caused Russia to withdraw from the commercial launch market and are hurting other nation's space programs. This is an interview with the head of Europe's main launch company:

  • https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/05/ariane-chief-seems-frustrated-with-spacex-for-driving-down-launch-costs/

  • We either lead or are tied with China in self-driving cars

  • We definitely lead in the production of civilian airplanes.

  • Look at the whole ZTE debacle to see how dependent China is on some critical components from the US https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZTE#U.S._sanctions_and_export_ban

  • Personally, I was against the whole debacle. The New York Times explains why this was a bad idea: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/10/technology/china-technology-zte-sputnik-moment.html

    145:

    Another thing to consider: the picture you get about murders in the US is highly distorted.

    https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2012/12/listening_to_the_latest_media.html

    Ignore the data prior to WWI (the US was far more rural and less industrialized back then). In terms of homicide rate, we're at a low point. Stories of increased lawlessness are often used by rich billionaires to extract money from taxpayers or to influence the voting public

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prison%E2%80%93industrial_complex

    146:

    Greg Tingey @ 110:

    "Sorry, I don't follow what you are saying."

    I think someone may have conflated my snide comment with someone elses answer.

    I believe "when was the last time the U.S. had a "sane" President?" is fairly self explanatory. I don't know who pinned on the "2008-16 actually".

    Although I voted for Obama, my own answer to that would be MAYBE FDR, Truman, Eisenhower or Kennedy. Some of their successors have been less completely out of the frame than others, but it seems to me that since I've been old enough to vote, you'd have to be insane to a certain degree to think you could handle the job. The latest one has just taken all that to a new level.

    I blame the internet.

    147:

    That is a funny thing, at some point of my life, when I learned the language fine enough to think with it at normal speed, I started to lose some flexibility in my native tongue, and when I try to correct this, it still backfires in different forms of mistakes (and sometimes even browser spellcheck doesn't help). I am not an immigrant or something and my exposure to language is limited, so I just try my best.

    to Elderly Cynic @ 127: I see what you mean, but, I always thought, these "island" nations out there (like Japan or Korea) or the Scandinavian nations always have some trick up their sleeve to stay afloat, maybe, they can turn out better with their privileges of sea trade. You can always stay connected to every part of the world without even need to maintain thousands of kilometres of roads, right?

    to JBS @ 87: I do not imagine there is even a single instance of elections uninfluenced by outside observers in certain degree, but this is not what concerns people in those countries when they talk about "malign activity" (c), not at all. They are trying to build a bigger picture out of multiple smaller cases, like Colin Powell shaking his test tube in front of the UN assembly (over the last decade this trick has gone memetic). Accompanied with even less-informative statements about "cyber-crime" or "being undemocratic", "violation of international law" or "hybrid war act", these accusations almost start to make sense, calling out for bigger, more strict measures, up to the point of total economical and information war. The idea of proportional response, or perhaps, negotiation, never comes to mind when considering these accusations, because they are always acting on people's emotions rather than their rational side. The rational side, on OTOH, tells me that certain people just want to have their profit in the most direct way possible (i.e. ransom, racket and expropriation), not even bothering with subtlety or decency. Do you people think this is some kind of a joke?

    148:

    The numbers of murders in the US is mind-bogglingly high compared to most other developed nations with stable governments. The fact it's down from even higher numbers in the past is a good start but it's still way up there in lights, comparatively speaking.

    149:

    "We still lead or are tied with China in several industries."

    I am sorry If I wasn't too specific, but I was referring to Ukraine (historically, an integral part of Russian realm, so to say), and to the larger extent, the rest of the republics that came under very extensive foreign influence. These republics hoped for their better future in "civilized world" and for that they were betrayed in the most cynical way. As for the US, I do not believe it has ran out of steam in long term, however, it doesn't mean US-centred world can easily overcome debt crisis - some people estimate it will take a hole new world war to do so.

    150:

    whitroth @ 133:

    "And here I thought that Georgia was the grain basket of the USSR."

    According to the Georgia Department of Agriculture "grain" isn't even in the top ten.

    It's poultry (Broilers), Cotton, Peanuts, Chicken Eggs, Greenhouse/Nursery (ornamental & landscaping plants), Cattle and Calves, Dairy, Pecans, Corn (Maize for livestock feed & ethanol production) and Blueberries.

    Yes, I know you meant that OTHER Georgia, but doesn't anyone remember how Nixon negotiated a 10 million metric ton grain sale to the USSR in 1972 (subsidized by the USDA) that pushed US grain prices to a 125 year high, cranking up food price inflation that would lead "stagflation" in the later 1970s.

    Or how Jimmy Carter enacted a US grain embargo against the USSR after they invaded Afghanistan and how one of the first acts by Ronald Reagan after he took office was to lift the embargo and negotiate a multi-million dollar sale (15 - 20 million metric tons per year ) of American wheat to the Soviet Union?

    151:

    whitroth @ 136:

    "Does that make sense?"

    ... at least as much as "There", "They're", "Their".

    152:

    "the rest of the republics that came under very extensive foreign influence."

    Can you give me a list of which republics you're talking about, besides Ukraine?

    153:

    sleepingroutine @ 177:

    "Do you people think this is some kind of a joke?"

    It's behind FT's paywall, so I don't quite get your point.

    Deripaska is implicated in the Russia/Trump probe via Paul Manafort's unregistered lobbying (along with his money laundering & tax evasion) for the pro-Putin Ukrainian government. It doesn't matter whether Russia is engaged in a campaign to interfere in US elections for political reasons or if it's just plain old financial corruption. Kleptocracy ain't no joke!

    154:

    Standards of living are improving everywhere

    How does that fit in today's announcement, that the retirement age in Russia is going to rise? (55 to 63 for women, 60 to 65 for men).

    Unfortunately for US, by barring a nation from free trade from the very beginning, they outplayed themselves.

    I'm curious as to how this one works - exactly how did the USA bar Russia from free trade "from the very beginning"? Sanctions have been aimed at the siloviki and nomenklatura, not ordinary Russians - and they didn't start until the Russian state started to invade its neighbours (Georgia, Ukraine).

    especially for Ukraine... It took US a whole generation of "democracy" to turn everything into heathen-infested ruin.

    Ahhh, but the USSR was much better at turning Ukraine into chaos. It only took Stalin two years to achieve the Holodomor and to kill 10% of the population! Glory to the First Five-Year Plan!

    Nobody is expecting anything but chaos from this place any more.

    While I accept that Ukraine seems to have failed in its desire to remove corruption from government, it didn't help that the GRU were actively destabilising the Ukraine, to the point of starting a civil war; invading and annexing Crimea; or that the Russian Army is still fighting in Eastern Ukraine.

    It's hypocritical for a Russian to call Ukraine chaotic, while Russia is providing the soldiers, the tanks, and the artillery to make it chaotic. Or the anti-aircraft missiles to shoot down airliners...

    155:

    to Ioan @152: I would plainly say "all of them" (including Russia), but the degree of effectiveness varies greatly. Ukraine is visibly disintegrating as we are talking right now. Georgia got it's share of corruption scandals a civil wars (not so long ago). Armenia is in turmoil again (incidentally, it hosts largest US embassy in the region). Financial statistics for Baltic states looks shiny as usual, however this is hardly a good cover a for demographic problems, economy stagnation and human rights issues (and the recent banking crisis as well). Majority of Russians nowadays would also agree that Caucasian wars were also that sort of intervention, however, admittedly, the situation here is lot more complex.

    to JBS @153 Words like "unregistered" and "implicated" should already be red flags for such assumptions, but, I guess, people just do not care about such little details these days. Deripaska is a hardened fellow and he will not go down easily.

    to Martin @154 Ah, the old list all over again, you wouldn't believe how many times in recent years I was met with the same set of superstitions of that sort. Most of them can easily be disproved by curious Google search, so I will opt to sticking to my initial topic. How, you say, could a post-USSR country be barred from free trade? By institutional measures. Free trade, you see, is not so free, most of the time it requires extensive licensing, standard development, legislation, agreements and most importantly, competitiveness. After disintegration of USSR, each and every country had to adopt itself to global markets in isolation, carve it's niche in the supply and demand chain. To be able to survive after decade of stagnation and to overcome technology gap, they simply sold themselves and their governments in the hands of word's financial institutions, and those who did not agree, were hit by the older restrictions that US conveniently forgot to lift in time. Namely, it took Russia more than 20 years to lift Jackson-Vanik Amendment and be accepted in WTO after tremendous shifts in economy... only to get barred by new set of sanctions all over again.

    156:

    OK, I think should not turn this platform into my personal playground, using host's generosity to tolerate my stream of consciousness, so I will slow down the posting speed, and thank you very much for the attention.

    157:

    бодрствовать

    Stop fishing: the lurkers are the ones to watch.

    On topic: The BBC is attempting to 'keep an even keel' and fielding some very out-dated modelling on Question Time tonight, while the 'Brexit Wide-Boys' are continuing to take the piss out of MPs while dining with the DUP and May just got gutted in the House[0].

    Narrator: it did not go well for them.

    sniffs

    Bond. The Name is Bond, German Bonds.

    [0] Did Theresa May ask Trump to negotiate Brexit? YT: PM Question Time (via RT, in reference SR)

    158:

    You Are The Only One YT: Eurovision 2016, Sergey Lazarev

    Or (English for Host):

    Do you understand if I tell you myself that she is an angel of gentleness!” she screamed with sudden fury. “Your house is dirty, she will bring in order, cleanliness. Everything will shine like a mirror. Good gracious, do you expect me to go on my knees to you with such a treasure, to enumerate all the advantages, to court you! Why, you ought to be on your knees.… Oh, you shallow, shallow, faint-hearted man!”

    THE POSSESSED Fyodor Dostoevsky

    Took you a while though.

    159:

    The Pivot:

    @sleepingroutine perhaps you could shed some light on an aspect of this change I have little insight into.

    The UK has long been disquieted by the idea of a united Europe (rejecting Roman pasta, German sausage, French wine, dutch herring, etc) and has abandoned it's position of influence and association.

    Rumour has it that the square Mile had it's chestnuts rescued from the fire of 2008 by getting into the Russian laundry business. Since then there has been an increase in property investment inflows acting as stores of value, anchors to policies, and transfers of wealth.

    Then these billionaire oligarchs - forbidden from exercising power at home - have been free to play tennis with the right uk people, and presumably press various agendas like (?!) Tsarism and other atlanticist tendencies.

    Though Nuland's Banderist biscuit-distribution ultimately undermined these atlanticists, we only saw Westminster turn against their new pals after the alleged poisoning of the skripals.

    So what is this tangle ? Dark dirty cash pools, expat oligarchs, romantic royals dreaming of bygone tsarist glories, and a declaration of defeat to the continental powers, and parliament paralysed by paradox ?

    What do various Russian factions hope will happen with brexit ?

    And what powers those super long range cruise missiles ?

    160:

    𒀭𒈹

    Ooook said the Librarian.

    Look: most of the power structures of the world are based on Hierarchies and trading various commodities (physical land, money, influence, sex, blah blah) to scramble up the structures of your localized pyramid so you can play with the Big Boys (not all Boys, but it's a patriarchal structure).

    There's ~30 people currently who own approx 70% of the world's economy. And Land. And Trade. Etc. No, really.

    They also:

    a) Keep this structure intact with EXTREME PREJUDICE

    and

    b) Kill off Minds like us[0] and debase them and destroy them

    And yes, yes, yes: Egyptian Ancient Pyramids weren't actually built by slaves, but beer fed off-season farmers and professional artisans to keep that really useful skill of "MAKING STONES INTO FORTIFICATIONS" survive (c.f. every. fucking. Cathedral since A.D 340. Like LITERALLY THE MASONS ARE THE ONES YOU PAY TO MAKE THE ENGINEERING STRUCTURES 'CAUSE SHIT MIGHT HIT THE FAN AND YOU NEED SOME WALLS BUILT). Note: extreme art on statues is not part of that. That's just pornhub,com etc.

    So... what is your actual question?

    Answer: they're going to kill off about 4billion of you (that's the nice ones) and about 7 billion (that's the Fascist ones) to make sure they survive.

    No, really.

    [0] For the last time: they poked an OCP: Our Minds are different! Wee! OUR KIND DO NOT GO MAD. Which is basic-bitch level shit for: "You attempted to destroy [redacted] Minds, we will do it to each and every one of your slaves".

    No, Really.

    This is what it is about. grep Mammon. ENDGAME ATTACK VECTORS.

    No, really.

    1-UP Mushroom and and Algo Rhizomatic Virus.

    DONE FUCKING DEAL.

    161:

    It occurs to me that much of the post WW2 rebuilding involved New Dealers guiding the process, where post cold war, the movers were neo-liberal business folk. The relative success of Japan & Germany could be contrasted with that of the ex-USSR to judge how each policy mindset has worked in the real world. I do note that they were very different jobs, but the result of the second has been a black eye for the west.

    162:

    Um. From the beginning until now, Theresa May's actions have been perfectly consistent with being stuck with an idiotic project, pushed upon her by ignorant managers (the people). So, in the face of that nonsense, one boldly sets out and declares that the idiotic project (Brexit) will go swimmingly according to the Brexiteers wishes. Meanwhile, you prepare in such a way that the only option is an extremely soft Brexit, making each concession only when forced by emerging reality. I will not admit that I've managed projects this way, but it is a relatively effective way of finishing impossible projects.

    So, I guess not much will change. The UK loses its vote; stays in the single market; and keeps (mostly) freedom of movement while paying into the EU.

    163:

    Re: US vs Russia

    Haven't read all comments so not sure whether this has already been said.

    Somewhat agree that US election meddling/Brexit is probably more native than alien mostly because there's a better pay off for the insider than outsider. Plus, wonder if there are enough sober Russian males* left to manage such a campaign.

    This demographic stagnation is also a good reason for not re-admitting Russia into the G-7 (G-8) because their potential net contribution would be as a source of cheap skilled (unreliable) labor. There's plenty of cheap labor already in place in the rest of Eastern Europe plus everyone is now heading towards full-on robotics. [Below is an old article about Russia's likely demographic picture in 2050. If anything, things are likely to be even worse.]

    https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2015/04/02/the-russian-economy-in-2050-heading-for-labor-based-stagnation/

    If Russia quickly acquired some ethics and humanity, it might try very hard to persuade the educated global warming emigres that the US and some other economically developed countries are unable to absorb.

    • Seriously, rates of alcoholism among Russian males are very high with no signs of change in the near future. And, sexism has been on the upswing under Putin, so unlikely that such a political campaign would be trusted to 'mere girls'.
    164:

    I realize that you've decided to limit your posts. Likewsie, I don't mean to dogpile you. However, a few lines caught my eye that I figured I need to respond.

    About the Baltics demographic crisis

  • Estonia's population has grown since 2011. Only Latvia and Lithuania are still shrinking.
  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estonia

  • The Total Fertility Rate of the Baltics is 1.6-1.7. That is higher than most Western European countries. Note that Russia's TFR is also 1.7
  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate

  • I suspect that Western European countries would have experienced a similar decline in population absent immigration since the 1970s. In other words, the Baltic's demographic declines have more to do with post-industrial urbanization and a lack of suitable immigration than with malevolent policy.
  • About the human rights situation, I'm assuming that you're referring to the language laws restricting Russian. What is the difference between those laws and Quebec's laws restricting English?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charter_of_the_French_Language

    I personally think that these laws are stupid and counterproductive, but I don't think they're human rights violations.

    165:

    Erwin @ 162 A reminder today ( on "Today" ) that we are being squeezed out of the Galileo project, which is about 40% Brit-tech & money ( The others are Germany about another 40% & the rest of the Eu the remainder ) All because some fuckwits didn't know whaththey were doing, or worse, knew & didn't care. This level of stupid does get me annoyed.

    166:

    It's more than rumour but it's NOT particularly or even primarily Russian! It's CLAIMED to be because, of course, Saudi Arabian, the Gulf states' and other such, er, free countries' money is 'clean' whereas Russia oligarchs' is 'dirty'. Basically, the City of money depends on (legal) money laundering (including semi-legal tax evasion) and gambling with other people's money, and the OTHER good side of Brexit (than #88) is that it will be cleaned up. The UK will lose 17% of its foreign exchange (when I last saw), of course, which will trigger another crisis like that of the 1960s.

    167:

    It will be SO GOOD yessss! Unemployment up to 15% plus, half of London idle & most of the rest of the country running around looking for work & food. Be VERY CAREFUl of what you wish for.

    168:

    I suspect there really would be riots in the streets if the UK had to accept the Euro and Schengen. But I agree, that's more acceptable than a hard Brexit

    169:

    Oh, it's better than that... Originally Galileo was going to be an EU project with inputs of money and engineering from other countries such as China in return for access to the upper tiers of signal accuracy and other benefits (a bit like ITER). Britain, under pressure from the United States pushed through a resolution to bar countries outside the EU from participating in the engineering and high-accuracy aspects of Galileo in order to isolate China. Now that Britain is leaving the EU this means UK companies and businesses won't have the sort of access to Galileo they want and all because the British government demanded such isolation in the first place.

    As for funding, basically the money put into Galileo pro rata by each country is returned to that country in contracts for equipment and services. Britain got a lot of the early development money, spent on the prototypes and proof-of-concept satellites from companies like Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd. that were launched a while back. That's all gone and of course we won't be putting any more money into the project after March 2019. What a savings!

    170:

    Personally, I think Britain joing the Euro would be a mistake, but we should have joined Shengen, first off .... If nothing else, it would make leaving the EU even harder than it is presently proving

    171:

    Well, yes. If senior management comes up with something as dimwitted as Brexit, there will be enormous losses. The big one, I think, is finance. Galileo is a rounding error.

    On the other hand, as long as you accept losing 10% or so of the UK's economy in exchange for mild humiliation and losing a voice in EU regulations, Brexit probably won't be terrible. I suspect Theresa May has no interest in a hard Brexit.

    The second order effects seem less predictable. The first order effect is that the Tories will be 'thanked' by a switch to a labor government. I think, also, that most parties will accommodate a certain amount of systematic racism. Later, there will be fury when the EU actually enacts biased legislation.

    172:

    Erwin Labour's majority in yesterday's Lewisham bye-election slumped ... Because Corbyn is a rabid Brexiteer - the splits inside Labour are as deep as those inside the tories. Or hadn't you noticed?

    173:

    Nice summary in Private Eye this week:

    4.5 months - from now until EU negotiations deadline; 24 months - time Tories & Labour have had to agree what their own BrExit policies should be

    174:

    Everything that happens when push comes to shove confirms that the hypothesis I posted in the last paragraph of 21st Century #595 is the most plausible one. See the remark about Rees-Mogg and Davis in:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44490748

    From her reports, I suspect that Laura Kuenssberg (who is the smartest political editor the BBC have had for some time) has come to a similar conclusion, but can't say so.

    175:

    10% is only the short-term loss; the expectation is also that it will be downhill from there with no end in sight, unless someone pulls a rabbit out of the hat.

    176:

    I'm not necessarily in favor of admitting Russia into the G7, but I think this line is overdone

    "This demographic stagnation is also a good reason for not re-admitting Russia into the G-7 (G-8) because their potential net contribution would be as a source of cheap skilled (unreliable) labor."

    Russia has a few things going for it

  • If they can ever reform their agriculture sector, I think that they can compete with US/Canda/Australia/New Zealand/Brazil as an agricultural powerhouse

  • Tourism: In 2016, Russia received 24.6 million international tourists. That's close to Japan's 24 million. Keep in mind that Japan is planning on growing its tourism to 40 million by 2020 as a way to grow the economy with a declining population. I don't see any reasons Russia can't do the same? The World Cup is likely to help in this goal.

  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Tourism_rankings#Europe

  • While I think that most of Putin's "import substitutions" will involve importing from China instead of the West, it's quite possible that either he or a successor may seriously try and rebuild Russia's manufacturing industry

  • China is investing everywhere these days. They're investing in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, etc. I don't think all of that investment will be lost to corruption.

  • Russia already has 11.6 million immigrants

  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_immigrant_population

    If anything, I think that a challenge between now and 2024 would be finding new sources of immigration as Poland/Hungary are vying to attract immigrants from the European former Soviet Republics, and Kazakhstan is becoming an alternative for immigrants from Central Asia.

    177:

    And now ... the EU may be looking at stopping the clock Interesting.

    Elsewhere, a give-away about autarky & Authoritarianism from DT I wonder how many in the USSA will actually pay attention to that?

    178:

    The EU are quite correctly planning for the UK to do almost anything when the talks fail, and it has come to the conclusion that is a near-certainty.

    The reason that May has always been a die-hard brexiteer is that she wants the same as Trump - unlike the others, she isn't interested in the trading and environmental regulations, but in being able to convict and expel people at whim, with no appeal from courts she doesn't control.

    179:

    Ah, the old list all over again, you wouldn't believe how many times in recent years I was met with the same set of superstitions of that sort. Most of them can easily be disproved by curious Google search, so I will opt to sticking to my initial topic.

    I welcome your presence on the thread, because I think it does us all good to be challenged in our assumptions - and trying out a different perspective on current events is healthy, even if you disagree with it. I've always found it interesting to talk to people who have grown up in a different culture with a different set of trusted news sources - be that Russia, or the USA...

    So I'm curious as to which you think are my "superstitions" that can be disproved... The Holodomor? The forced annexation of Crimea? The presence of Russian soldiers fighting (and dying) in Eastern Ukraine?

    I appreciate that other posters find it difficult to accept that it was a Russian-supplied missile that shot down flight MH17, so we can leave that to one side for now.

    180:

    "Deripaska is a hardened fellow and he will not go down easily."

    "Made it Ma! Top of the world!"

    181:

    to barren_samadhi @159: I have listened to comments from some political observers - the UK has seen the opportunity to snatch a large sum of money in front of their noses and just went for it because why not. Those "Russian oligarchs" who strayed away from their country are likely to pay dearly for that betrayal since nobody will come to their help. OTOH, those who are still with the country are hardened bunch and (likely) will not yield that easily. The sentiment starting to prevail in modern politics is, perhaps, very familiar to them - to grab what you can and run with it, like in good old times.

    to SFreader @163: Tug-of-war over demographic problems of Eastern Europe has been over for over a decade now - everybody agreed to disagree. If people find it more comforting to think that Russia will cease to be a problem in the near future all on its own, it is better to leave them undisturbed.

    to Ioan @164: I've read enough about "natives" conflicting with Russian national population, and language problem is only a tip of the iceberg. Where the Charter would only have a specific cultural significance, governments of post-USSR republics are often acting in outright fascist manner with forced naturalization and assimilation. Where Canadians would make exceptions and reasonable balances, nationalists do not stop for nothing. People are barred from jobs, business, culture and administration(as well as voting rights in the case of Latvia). Long story short, even though you have been living in the region for several generations, surrounded by your people, the mere fact of your language preference and ancestry is enough to suppress your freedoms to no end, unless maybe if you surrender and give in to the demands. And this, or course, surprises no one - the defining feature of every "independent" or "national" republic is that, to stay afloat, it has to exercise their nationalism at the expense of someone inferior.

    182:

    10% is only the short-term loss; the expectation is also that it will be downhill from there with no end in sight, unless someone pulls a rabbit out of the hat.

    There's a very funny essay by Arthur C. Clarke called "The Meddlers", originally published in Playboy, and reprinted in Voices from the Sky. I managed to find an online copy in a Google Books preview of By Space Possessed, which lets me read the lot. The essay ends with a case study — involving the Sun, and based partly on advice from that well-known firm of independent consultants Kahn, Teller, and Strauss — to illustrate the wisdom of Clarke's Two Laws (no, not his Three Laws):
    — Do not attempt the unforeseeable;
    — Do not commit the irrevocable.

    Every engineer knows the wisdom of these. If you're upgrading a complex system: let's say a food-support/supply system such as an irrigation network, the life-support in a starship, or even a farm, you don't bash randomly with a hammer. You plan, and you try to ensure that you've always got a reasonably easy-to-achieve plan for getting the system into a safe state. The network of trade and customs agreements that we currently have is another such system, and keeping it running is — or ought to be — regarded as engineering too. With key concepts such as risk management and optimisation and resource trade-offs being at the forefront of one's mind. But our politicians don't think like that. They don't take an engineering approach to problem-solving. Why?

    183:

    To oversimplify, the reason purely engineering approaches don't work in agriculture or politics is that the other actors have agency.

    I won't pretend I'm a great gardener, but I've learned enough to tinker a bit before committing. It's worth seeing how the system behaves once you perturb it, rather than starting with the assumption that it will act predictably and that you can set up a safe state that the system can return to.

    With political systems like customs agreements, they work as long as everyone acts within an agreed-upon framework. That's one reason they break down periodically and have to be renegotiated. While you can model Nash equilibria and such to speed up the exploration of possible outcomes and thereby arrive at someplace useful, any negotiated system is vulnerable to the idiot problem. That's when idiots wandering in can create a temporary advantage for themselves by ignoring, messing with, or exploiting the system, and the more and bigger the idiots, the worse the problem. The current Republican administration negotiates idiotically (in the sense of the previous sentence) because they feel it gives them a temporary advantage, and often it does. What they ignore is that in the slightly longer term, they can lose big(ly), as noted by the current President who has gone bankrupt four times using this approach.

    A good, albeit random, example of the failure of the engineering approach is in this week's issue of Hakai Magazine in a story about how herring learn to migrate. The traditional, low output, way of harvesting herring roe was to set up artificial spawning systems and harvest the eggs laid. Western fishers decided this was too fiddly, and instead they caught the fish and cut out the roe sacs, thereby increasing the roe yield until they ran out of fish. It now seems that the herring learned where to move over the course of the year by copying older, bigger herring, and once those were all caught, their entire life cycle was disrupted. This is worth considering only because the obvious, logical engineering solution turned out to be wrong, and returning the system to its original state through conventional conservation techniques is also turning out to be really difficult, because none of the western fishermen thought that herring might be cultural animals who needed their elders to show them how to live properly. That's the kind of thing that doesn't show up in an engineering analysis of a biological or political system very often.

    184:

    Considering that, in engineering contexts (IT), I was damned for doing just that - "you are far too negative", and "we don't need to do that" - I am not surprised. The mandarins are nearly as bad, incidentally. It's the psychology of risk - reminder to self, must buy the relevant book!

    If more of the politicians and mandarins had Aspergers, we would do better - we are much more likely to think like that. The UK used to have a scientific civil service, and the senior scientists used to speak truth to power, but the mandarins persuaded Thatcher to eliminate it. The infamour Hutton enquiry did expose the fact that there is a glass ceiling well below the decision-making level for scientists who behave like scientists, and we all know that the external appointees are chosen for their political attitudes.

    185:

    [Our politicians] don't take an engineering approach to problem-solving. Why?

    They aren't engineers?

    Engineers spend years learning that approach. It doesn't seem to be valued much outside the profession (recall "Take of your engineering hat and put on your management hat"?).

    Have you ever seen the old book "How to Lie with Statistics"? (Huff, 1954) I find that my students who have taken business courses are very familiar with most of the ways to use statistics and graphs to mislead someone — because they have been explicitly taught how to do so in a business course! I suspect that politics is an occupation where being "right" is less important than being "convincing" and so those who convey unpalatable truths are rejected.

    186:

    Thank you for your response. I know I may appear hostile, but I don't have that good a knowledge of the region. Thank you for being patient with me.

    187:

    "it's" is a contraction of "it is", while "its" is possessive

    Lots of native English writers struggle with this. A useful mnemonic-like thing is that the possessive pronoun "its" goes along with the other third-person singular possessive pronouns "his" and "hers". They don't have apostrophes, and neither does "its". It's easier to remember that way.

    188:

    EC @ 178 Not even wrong ( I thin - & I think Charlie also thinsk? ) May was anti-Brexit - I think that her deliberately putting Rabid Brexiteers "in charge" is that they will fuck up completely (As is happening) - so that Brexit also collapses. We shall see.

    JI-P @ 182 BEcause Trump & his associates can see huge personal profits & to hell with everyone else. Exactly like the russinas referred to in # 181, in fact.

    189:

    And just to annoy certain people, this analysis from five thirty eight: US nuclear power won't survive without a government handout. In fairness, I suspect that this is also true for most power industries. For example, I'm not sure the international oil market would continue to function without massive government subsidies in the form of military interventions at various levels.

    190:

    I think you (along with a lot of other people) underestimate the depths of TMs vanity, the lengths she was willing to go to, and the price she was willing to pay to get her name on the list of Prime Ministers...

    191:

    Canadians have historically followed a pattern of open hostility to newcomers for a generation or so, followed by the newcomers children joining the rest in resenting the newcomers from the next place. I can give a chronological description of that process, but over time the 'distrusted others' entering the country have changed from Irish and Scots Asians to Eastern Europeans and Irish, to Southern Europeans to South Asians and now to Africans and Muslims (as well as full circle to resenting Chinese all over again). The story is Quebec is slightly different but parallel.

    That said, immigration policy in a country largely composed of immigrants or the mostly recent descendants of immigrants has developed in a much different manner than in countries who have self identified as a particular nationality for more than a century or two. Most of us who are not immigrants ourselves have at least one parent or grandparent who arrived from elsewhere.

    Thus we have multiple generations of Turkish descended people living in Germany without citizenship, while others with a much less relevant claim to 'German' can claim a passport based on their grandparents etc. Similar situations exist in other European countries - with my ancestry I think I can make a fairly decent attempt at attaining Irish, British or Hungarian citizenship, and through my wife might have a shot at a Greek passport as well. None of which I should really have a shot at compared to people who actually live and contribute in those countries.

    My understanding is that similar problems certainly exist in the Baltic states and other parts of the former Soviet Empire. Many people of Russian descent live in former Soviet countries and are resented - I knew one woman who was a 'Russian' that had emigrated from Kazakhstan because of the hostility she experienced in her home.

    Negative nationalism (as in - you are not one of us so you are not part of our nation) is a toxic tribal thing that helps nobody but demagogues and fascists. People of Russian ancestry deserve it no more than anyone living as a minority anywhere else. (My own Hungarian ancestors hail from Transylvania, where hostility to Hungarians is a big problem).

    192:

    Well, more government handouts. Nuclear power already exists on various handouts. To name two: the liability limitation and the promise (so far unfulfilled, but still fantastically valuable) to handle the waste.

    193:

    Your naivety is touching. She made one speech 'supportive' of remaining but, even at the time, commentators noticed that she was damning with faint praise. She has been adamantly opposed to oversight by the ECJ at least since she became Home Secretary.

    194:

    You could say the same about the coal industry except the amounts of dangerous toxic waste are astronomically higher than with nuclear power and the death toll per GWh of generating capability is much greater. No-one in power seems interested in actually reducing the amount of coal being burned today (they talk a lot about it though).

    In other news the German nuclear generators recently got a court order reversing a special tax levied on them by the German government to help subsidise renewables. That's sort of a reverse government handout, I suppose.

    195:

    Negative nationalism (as in - you are not one of us so you are not part of our nation) is a toxic tribal thing that helps nobody but demagogues and fascists. People of Russian ancestry deserve it no more than anyone living as a minority anywhere else.

    The Russians in the various ex-USSR countries will be paying for the sins of the USSR for a long time. It didn't help that the USSR actively seemed to move ethnic Russian types[1] into all of those former republics to actually diminish the local nationals.

    [1]Did you look like you descended from the Vikings who settled the area 1000 years ago?

    196:

    Most of us who are not immigrants ourselves have at least one parent or grandparent who arrived from elsewhere.

    Which doesn't stop our right-wing politicians from using "immigrants" as a convenient target for blame.

    Although in my experience the right wing uses "immigrant" as code for "not white". To the neocons I am a Canadian despite my being an immigrant, while my nieces are immigrants despite their being born here to Canadian citizens. (Based on personal experience, not peer-reviewed statistics, so I may be overgeneralizing here.)

    197:

    in my experience the right wing uses "immigrant" as code for "not white"

    Very much that in Australia. To the extent that people genuinely say "go back where you came from" to Aboriginal people, or "speak English, not foreign" to people speaking pre-Australian languages. It doesn't get much stupider, or more blatantly "white is right" than that.

    In Australia aboriginal anti-immigrant sentiment is pretty subdued (even during the S44 stupidity, where MP's were told they had to obey the constitutional requirement to eschew foreign allegiances even if it was inconvenient for them to do so. Some of the white ones where shocked that they too had to obey the law). But we do have moments, Briggs singing

    Now Mr Abbott, think about it Me and you we feel the same That might sound strange, I'm just sayin' We both unsettled when the boats came

    I still love that song. (Tony Abbott being the Prime Munster of Oztraya ... and born in the UK makes it even funnier).

    198:

    Merely reducing the output radioactivity of coal to the levels from nuclear would probably make coal uneconomic...

    200:

    Well, actually, Russians generally - look at the level of hate speech against them, often made 'politically correct' by appointing Putin as the bogeyman. I loathe ALL forms of hate speech against categories, and am continually attacked for standing up against the locally acceptable forms of it. Inter alia, hatred against one group causes hatred against other groups. The Wikipedia entry on Niemöller is interesting, specifically the remark about communists and socialists.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_they_came_...

    201:

    I hadn't seen that before, it's gold!

    FWIW I get quite a lot of "is that a bit of kiwi in your accent", because unless I'm whining about something apparently I don't sound fully^H^H^H properly Australian. ("fully" is one of those Polynesian words popular in NZ. Kinda like totally in California)

    In multicultural news, happy Eid. It's the end of Ramadan and to show just how bloody assimilated they are someone felt it necessary to have a fireworks display in the park. At least it's winter so they were at 8pm rather than 10pm. Or midnight. Happy new year, now go back to sleep.

    202:

    I tend to model politicians as decent people running optimization routines designed to maximize their chances of staying in power. They come to the oddest compromises.

    Based on her actions, rather than speeches, I think it is reasonable to conclude that she more or less immediately concluded that anything other than publically supporting a hard Brexit was politically infeasible.

    Meanwhile, I suspect she also concluded that a hard Brexit would be a disaster.

    And that public opinion would move only when consequences became apparent. Therefore, the correct course of action is obviously to stall on every decision until the 'correct' decision is 'forced' upon her. Meanwhile, she puts the bombthrowers in charge...so they can't whine about better deals.

    If she really wanted a hard Brexit or even a credible negotiating stance, there would have been a lot more spending and preparation.

    So, depending on public opinion, the likely option is super soft Brexit. To the point where the UK basically loses its vote, gets shafted on finance, and loses a few privileges. I don't think it'll harm the economy by more than 10% long-term.

    203:

    Read what she said BEFORE the referendum started. She was fanatical about 'freeing' the UK from the tyranny of the ECJ and EU human rights legislation. And, anyone with the slightest clue knows that those are right at the heart of the EU's principles and operation. She had simply not engaged what she is pleased to call her mind. Nor have most of the politicians and voters :-(

    A super-soft Brexit wouldn't harm us by much, though losing London as the main European financial hub would be more than 10% in itself, but (as I have posted before) I am predicting a train-crash Brexit.

    204:

    Personally for Martin @179:

    These are not actual superstitions as they are half-truth which are dragged down to the simple stereotype easy to be mass-distributed through media. Young ducklings were told a single universal truth once, why should they think that there are some alternatives? Actually learning something takes considerable time and they may not have it or they do not want to learn.

    As an example, I just readied a 10-items long list of minor details about certain plane crash problem you have mentioned, but I don't want to turn this topic into the entirely different direction like conspiracy unwrapping. If you have troubles getting past your Google search filters or personal preferences, I may as well forward this list in some convenient form, like copypasta dump or email.

    to David L @195: These people did nothing wrong by being who they are. They did not come to their new land with intend to clean it from "barbarians" or "foreigners" and claim it for themselves, but rather to live in peace, protect it from danger and bring up to civilization. Even the measures to submit local population to the new order did not take the form of outright enslavement and extermination, despite whatever some historians might want to claim. That is why regional nationalism or overseas colonialism do not take root in Russian lands and incompatible with Russian mentality, and every attempt at this politics ended up in a national disaster. This phenomenon makes Western colonial empires hate Russia so much - they do not understand this way of thinking, they prefer to be a pot calling kettle black.

    205:

    In any case, as a continuation to my initial line of posts, it seems to becoming a tendency that US seeks to establish its influence across national borders. This just came up to my news feed, and it is short, beautiful and comprehensive.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/44460326

    This comes as a stark contrast to behaviour of any other nation that seeks some sort of cooperation in international relations. US does not seek cooperation, US tells you to submit. Or else.

    206:

    I'd argue, and may well be wrong, that most arguments involving large groups of people not engaging their minds to any extent are flawed. People don't think much, but they mostly aren't utter idiots, just self-centered and a bit blinkered.

    I'd also argue that talking points from politicians reflect, as often as not, their reading of public opinion.

    This is actually a very pessimistic viewpoint as, for those of us across the pond, it indicates that Trump voters aren't stupid - just sufficiently xenophobic that xenophobia is their primary vote driver. It bodes quite poorly for our long-term political health.

    I tend towards the engineering mindset - so there's an unfortunate trend towards assuming honesty and also that government should be focused on providing optimal solutions. Based on that mindset, I fail to predict most political outcomes. As far as I've seen, there's more predictive power in assuming that politicians, prior to retirement, are little optimizing spiders. On the bright side, this avoids thinking that they're idiots. (There's some sort of selection effect, probably, where the non-spiders get eliminated early on.) On the down side, it does predict that they'll optimize their way into temporary local maxima. It is possible that 'standing tall against the EU' is one of those local maxima. I'm hoping that the probability of being associated with horrible, horrible disasters will mitigate against that choice. I think that more preparation would have been done in that instance. I think though that, oh look, we don't want the Troubles back, let's just add, as a backstop, keeping part of our country, probably the whole part as part of the EU...is more likely to be the model for future Brexit negotiations. 'Oh look, looks like Boris couldn't solve the customs issue', guess we're stuck in the customs union. 'Oh sigh, how much do we look to be getting from those trade treaties? Fine, single market it is.'

    And re: Corbyn, Labor being split isn't an issue. I guess no little spider with any forethought at all wants the Brexit hot potato. There just aren't any outcomes that the people in charge don't get blamed for... I'd guess Corbyn's goal is to stay out of the PM until after the real Brexit problems start and then get elected with a massive majority. For Labor, Brexit may be an advantage. Most conservative parties benefit from xenophobia (see UKIP) and thereby weaken when anti-immigration platforms are adopted. Corbyn's ideal scenario is probably May crashing into a hard Brexit; the Tories facing a twin wallop of disastrous economic news and a decline in support from xenophobes; election to the PM with a substantial majority; and a real shot at implementing policies he favors. May's ideal scenario is probably stalling into a soft Brexit; hoping the economy doesn't turn too far; (I think Trump's trade war may not help there...but that was probably hard to predict); and keeping a tenuous majority going forwards. She might even favor losing the majority slightly before the bad economic news really starts piling up.

    I tend to have sympathy for most politicians. They're basically engineers tasked with coming up with platforms that optimize their ability to convince a completely disinterested and uninformed management board with a tendency to make policy based off of the local papers that they should support their pet projects. That sort of thing really does suck as an occupation. (And I've listened to a few politicians complain about the divide between good and politically viable policy.)

    207:

    There is a difference between reacting and thinking things through, and anyone in a position to take action with potentially serious consequences about ANYTHING who does only the former is NOT engaging their mind. And I have discussed such issues with quite a few populations of decision-makers in my life, and the majority do precisely that :-(

    And why are you so reluctant to think that an idiot is an idiot, anyway?

    One of the stories of my life goes like this:

    Me: if you do that, and don't deal with this, XXX will probably happen.

    Them: you are being far too negative.

    They do that and not this, and XXX happens.

    Them: we couldn't possibly have predicted that.

    Me: I did, and told you.

    Them: well, that's just YOU.

    208:

    Re: Silk Road.

    China thinks very very long term.

    If they can open up and improve rail connections through "Central Asia" (the five former USSR republics east of the Caspian Sea) then there are three possible routes to the EU:

  • Through Russia. While routes already exist on the trans-Siberian railway, the Kazakhstan border is a lot further west than you might expect (less than 100km from Volgograd), so there might well be a much higher-capacity route through Kazakhstan into European Russia.

  • Through Iran. The "Iran Deal" definitely started opening this up to China. Any route would have to go through the Kurdish-majority parts of Turkey and Iran, but both of those states have shown the ability to control those insurrections. Turkey is investing heavily in railways at the moment (YHT high-speed passenger rail will free up capacity for freight on the older lines), so a route via Iran may be attractive.

  • Even if the EU does have sanctions on both Russia and Iran, it may not have the same sanctions - as long as most products can go through one or the other, then the rail route is still viable; goods just have to be sorted into different rail loads depending which set of sanctions apply.

  • Across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan. The port at Baku is being built up by the Azeris anyway, and there's certainly no shortage of ports in Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan that the Chinese could invest in. Smaller container ships capable of shifting a trainload or two across the sea, and efficient container ports to transfer containers from ship to train and vice versa are pretty straightforward to build (ie we're talking about less than ten years from concept to completion, and costs in the single digits of billions of €/$/£). Getting from Baku to the Turkish border is going to mean going via Georgia unless the Armenian/Azeri disputes get resolved (if China starts putting serious diplomatic effort into resolving the Armenian/Azeri disputes, then you know what's happening), but Georgia's certainly not impossible - and there's no need to go through any of the disputed bits.
  • China needs to be careful about non-Russian routes; they are going through what is a Russsian sphere of influence, and doing so en route to Russia is one thing, but avoiding Russia entirely is not going to be looked on kindly - so they need to build up political influence in Central Asia (which they are doing) so those governments are in a position to resist Russian pressure.

    All of this will take decades, but the Chinese regime has consistently been prepared to create and implement multi-decade plans.

    As an aside, they could dig a tunnel under the Caspian, but that's only really interesting to time-sensitive passengers, not so much for freight, and there really isn't going to be enough passenger traffic to make any difference.

    209:

    Across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan.

    Unlikely. Trans-shipping, moving from one transport mode to another and then back again is a PITA and expensive in time and money for bulk commodities, even in containers. The current version of the Silk Route has to trans-ship due to rail standard incompatibilities along the route but that can be optimised (two tracks side-by-side with a container-handling crane between them, frex) and eventually eliminated as the route gets upgraded, as it will if it's a success. Putting two shipping ports in the middle of the route is like building a canal across an Interstate with ferries shuttling back and forth.

    The rail line can go around the Caspian, through the mountains, across rivers and straits. It's what rail does.

    210:

    sleepingroutine @204 Tell that to the Uzbeks, or the Crimean Tatars or Ingush or ......

    211:

    Well, maybe. The interesting thing is that even he is realising that it is increasingly unlikely any proper deal is agreed in time.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/sajid-javid-conservative-leadership-new-prime-minister-a8402221.html

    212:

    eventually eliminated as the route gets upgraded, as it will if it's a success

    I suspect probably not, because the breaks in gauge in Asia are very deliberate, to prevent military forces from using the railroads as express routes into the interior.
    It'll take a lot more time and successful trades for the countries involved to trust each other enough for that, whereas for example side by side loading takes under an hour at the Kazakh/China border, plus each set of train equipment and drivers gets to stay in their own country, which is useful from a Customs point of view.

    But I agree, a water link along the way is extremely unlikely, it's just too slow and vulnerable to weather.

    213:

    sleepingroutine @204

    They did not come to their new land with intend to clean it from "barbarians" or "foreigners" and claim it for themselves, but rather to live in peace, protect it from danger and bring up to civilization. Even the measures to submit local population to the new order did not take the form of outright enslavement and extermination, despite whatever some historians might want to claim.

    I've heard the same thing said about the British Empire and though I'm British and sympathetic to the argument, being on the receiving end of bringing civilization and protecting from danger looks a lot like being invaded and having foriegners take your country away from you. There's going to be some hard feelings.

    214:

    At this point, I think it's worth noting simply that neither the capitalists nor the communists (nor, indeed, other imperialists like the Chinese or the Russians) have clean hands when it comes to the conquest and assimilation of other people who had the bad luck of being on their periphery. In most cases, the notion that "we're better than they are for (xxx) reasons, therefore we're justified in forcibly bringing them into our sociopolitical system" still needs to be proven out by history, while in other cases, history demonstrated that it was a bad idea.

    215:

    to Heteromeles @214: Maybe there's a lot of similarity, however, as I said, the methods are really important. At least for what I know, forceful relocation was not irreversible and many people were allowed to return to their homeland and resettle. I heard that the reason why USSR relocated people of certain nationalities, was a pre-emptive measure against forming local insurgency under the foreign influence (some places weren't this successful in the insurgency suppression and you get UPA or Forest Brotherhood, literally nationalist terrorist organizations), as well as preventing them from forming criminal circles. It is still better than permanent resettlement, slavery or uncontrolled expropriation of land and resources,.. maybe? Maybe if it wasn't recognized as crime at the time, it shouldn't be treated as such?

    Anyway, after a generation or two, they were becoming less organized and could freely live in Soviet society without repercussions like limiting the education and social status(well, average citizen of USSR wasn't that free to move around country anyway). In fact, most nationalities and especially republics of USSR had quotas and preferences for education and local administration. This proved to be a hidden strength of USSR when it was in peril during and after Patriotic War, and in the same time it became a weakness in the time of dissolution.

    to Greg Tingey 210: I don't see that something of a problem, last time I checked, Uzbeks had their own independent state, Ingush were granted their own republic in Federation and Crimean Tatars, until 2014, were living under Ukrainian rule and still have privileges within new republic. People should really worry more about consequences of capitalism nowadays rather than trying to play on the past and developing victim complex.

    216:

    being on the receiving end of bringing civilization and protecting from danger looks a lot like being invaded

    I will also add that the Russian empire was No Fun At All for some of the subject peoples, which is why (to take a very personal example) my great-grandfather and his family moved from the Pale of Settlement (specifically Poland, which was then part of the Russian Empire — circa 1905) to England (and in one case a good bit further west), where they did fairly well: two big textile businesses, a cabinet minister, a Hollywood movie producer (the one who went further west), and a few military officers and NCOs in both world wars.

    Unlike the Russian empire the systemic barriers to Jewish participation in civil society weren't enforced in law (let alone by actual pogroms, unless you count the Battle of Cable Street, which is kind of tenuous — especially as it didn't end well for the fascists).

    217:

    "Across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan."

    As both Nojay and I noted, this route is not useful for commodities. As I pointed out to Heteromeles, this route is useful for oil or natural gas. However, I question whether or not Central Asian oil/gas will continue to be shipped West in the future? The infrastructure to ship it to China will be more developed, if it isn't already.

    "China needs to be careful about non-Russian routes; they are going through what is a Russsian sphere of influence..."

    That ship has sailed already.

  • a. Even if China IS careful, you still have the West to consider. Even if the US and European governments are against this project, their companies will certainly invest in it. Even so, I could see the US using the investment in the region to bring some of those countries in OUR sphere of influence.

    b. It's not just the West though. I assume that Arab states and India are also heavily investing there, with our without Russian permission.

  • The countries themselves have agency.

  • a. Kazakhstan is certainly trying to reduce Russian influence in the country. Symbolically, they switched from the Cyrillic to Latin alphabets this year. They've positioned themselves as the "Dubai of the new Silk Road".

    https://astanatimes.com/2018/02/kazakhstan-adopts-new-version-of-latin-based-kazakh-alphabet/

    b. Turkmenistan is a North-Korean style regime with God-Kings and a cult of personality.

    c. Kyrgyzstan had a color revolution a few years ago, and is now the only country in Central Asia to hold a US base (apart from Afghanistan).

    d. Unlike Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan (to my knowledge) aren't quietly helping the Chinese surveillance state suppress the Uighurs.

    I enjoyed this Guardian series about the region

    https://www.theguardian.com/cities/series/secret-stans

    218:

    I think that the picture of immigrants in Canada and Australia is complicated by the fact that most of the immigration is Eastern (East and Southeast) Asian.

    To what extent are neocon stereotypes of Eastern Asians based on the US stereotype as a model minority?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_minority

    PS: I remember a while back that Charlie asked us to refer to people from South Asia as Asians and East Asians as Orientals. I do not do that because the term Oriental is considered offensive in the US. It carries the same orientation as "Jap".

    219:

    Re: Russia's pro's & demos

  • ‘reform agriculture sector’ – Russia seems to love and live by dogma including that an engineering or admin mind-set is all it takes to properly manage any physical (biological) complex system like, say, the Aral Sea. I don’t see any signs of a ‘reformation’ (aka doing good science) in their near future. Further, agricultural numbers between Russia and the other G7/8 nations cannot be directly compared because about one quarter of all Russians still rely primarily on their own veg plot/land for their daily sustenance. (Therefore double counting might also feature on this metric – production and consumption.)

  • ‘Tourism’ – Ahem … Russia is well-known for double-counting to suit their agenda. There have been specific instances noted by experts where visiting emigres were counted as native Russians in census years (to boost declining population numbers) as well as foreign tourists (to boost declining tourism numbers). Wouldn’t put it past them to count foreign casual workers as ‘tourists’.

  • ‘Rebuild Russia's manufacturing industry’ – probably the likeliest scenario, but what would they build? Consumer high-tech - unlikely because dogma/engineering mindsets typically have a tough time reconciling with ‘soft’ issues which are usually at the core of consumer preferences. (Okay – if Russia is as great at swaying minds (e.g. elections), then maybe they could be persuaded to use similar techniques at reading and delivering what consumers want. Though given election results it’s more likely they’d instead try to persuade that what Russian and foreign consumers really, really want is whatever is being made in their factories.)

  • ‘China is investing everywhere including Russia‘ – Interesting and wonder what the Chinese long term plan is. Could be a serious case of ‘pump and dump' on a multinational scale. Or, if Chinese nationals making it too big too fast in Russia start acting up, acting like Russian oligarchs or demanding more freedoms, the official gov't might decide that the best way to stop this is to retract and retrench. They’ve done it before.

  • ‘Russia already has 11.6 million immigrants’ – see above re: double-counting. Out-attracting Poland/Hungary – all three are showing very deep authoritarian tendencies so not sure why anyone would want to move to any of these three countries. IMO, the biggest difference is degree of religiosity with Poland highest and Hungary lowest.

  • 220:

    Got a citation for this?

    "about one quarter of all Russians still rely primarily on their own veg plot/land for their daily sustenance."

    221:

    Re: Russia (cont'd)

    This is an old report that covers Russian 1990-2000 ag output and productivity. According to this report barter accounts for 30% to 40% of all ag transactions. (IOW, any 'official' numbers should be taken with a big heap of salt.)

    http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/148121468092976669/pdf/290130fixed0wb1agroruss1eng.pdf

    222:

    Re: Citation

    See the above World Bank report. I know it's an old report, but there's no evidence that things have turned around much.

    223:

    Thanks for the report. Actually, there's plenty of evidence to the contrary. I don't exactly know how Russia compared to other Eastern European countries back then, most Eastern European countries had similar survival mechanisms after the fall of the Soviet Union. The economies became much more normal in the 2000s. Based on that alone I'd argue that the default assumption should be that those numbers are no longer accurate.

    " Out-attracting Poland/Hungary – all three are showing very deep authoritarian tendencies so not sure why anyone would want to move to any of these three countries."

    There are currently 1.2 million Ukrainians in Poland. Most moved there after the start of the Civil War. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Poland

    Most immigration within the former Soviet Union is economic, not based on human rights. The economies of Poland and Hungary are rich enough that they need immigrants to function. Since the alt-right is in power, the countries have attempted to attract white migrants. That means Ukraine, Georgia, etc.

    224:

    (cont) "‘Russia already has 11.6 million immigrants’ – see above re: double-counting."

    The number might have a margin of error due to double-counting, but don't forget that Russia isn't the only country which keeps these records. Other countries keep records of how many of their citizens have emigrated to Russia, and how often they travel, etc. In other words, there are other records which back up the assertion that the actual number is around that value.

    The same holds true for foreign tourists. Even without visas, passports are scanned when tourists return home.

    "Or, if Chinese nationals making it too big too fast in Russia start acting up, acting like Russian oligarchs or demanding more freedoms, the official gov't might decide that the best way to stop this is to retract and retrench. They’ve done it before. "

    These days, China prefers to use its surveillance state on its citizens abroad, and coerce them long before they could organize such demands. The article below details their activities in Australia

    https://www.smh.com.au/public-service/the-art-of-influence-how-chinas-spies-operate-in-australia-20171203-gzxs06.html

    225:

    sleepingroutine @ 215 could freely live in Soviet society Well, THAT is an oxmoron before you go any further ....

    Ioan @ 217 I know someone wh has just come back from Uzbekistan ... One reason they can do little about their side of the Aral, is that the "Mighty Oxus River" is but a large trickle ... because, up stream, Tajik & Kyrgiz-istans have built dams & their own irrigation schemes & are not letting enough through. Uzbekistan is also changing & lightening-up now their post-Soviet dictator is dead - there's money in tourism if you don't treat your own people too badly - one ofe resons Uzbek/Turkmen relations are strained at present, too.

    SFR 219/5 Yeah - Poland & Hungary going quasi-fascist, to the deep distress of the EU, which is trying ( & appears to be failing) to put the brake on - whaty's going on there, really? Poland will not have as much of an "immigrant proplem" as Hungary supposedly does, so wtf?

    226:

    At least for what I know

    From skimming your comments, you seem to find it a challenge to avoid a common error that a lot of people here make. That is to treat your own social prejudices as a null hypothesis. It actually isn't logically valid to do that. It might seem weird and wrong to you, but it's definitely the case.

    227:

    Yes. Russia was not and is not a bastion of tolerance. But there are quite a lot of comparable behaviours in Scotland and Ireland not long before, and we WERE responsible for Australia until about then. Plus the treatment of negroes and Chinese in the USA until very recently. Even today, the USA and UK are Very Little Fun for discriminated-against minorities.

    What I loathe is the demonisation, not least because it is the drumbeat to war.

    228:

    I remember going to the Kedron-Wavell RSL club a few years ago to see Mental As Anything. This was a sort of reunion tour consisting of Greedy and Martin Plaza, but lacking the Mombasas. Anyhow when we signed in, my wife's Hungarian name prompted the 20ish door chick to ask "Now that's not really Australian, is it? Where are you from?". Of course, my wife said "Melbourne" and when prompted to be more precise, "Hawthorn". But the fact her mum was 10 years old when her family rode to Austria on an ox cart half a day ahead of the Russians, that her dad came on his own as a troubled young man in 56...

    Sort of thing leads to wanting to talk about my own family, since my German side had been in Queensland for over a century before I was born. But you get cretinous anglo types whose family came in the 1950s and think they're the main stream - even half-arsed nothings like Abbott who seem to think they are Australian.

    And they seem to think they are in a position to dictate even to indigenous people. Vexing, I see the likes of Pauline Hanson, who is definitely less Australian than nearly anyone I know, if anything a Britisher in denial. Too many people with just no idea.

    229:

    Posting this having done the legwork on the story (the actual story, not the MI5 vetted Guardian version) and "whoo-wee" does it get wild. Seriously: pack up the Onion, satire is dead, wild.

    Random word salad if dubs is required: POSEIDON, MACAU, [FLYINGSCALYLIZARD]COIN, EX-TRIAD, EMERDATA, BANANA CARTEL TRADE DISPUTE, POSH GEORGE NAME CHANGE, RED MAFIA EAST EUROPE.

    And that's just the low/medium level tier.

    (Also a lot of countries mentioned already flag up all over the place on this one: removed any non-public names that would really get people excited - go read previous thread to spot other interested parties involved. All names can be sourced to published link to protect any libelous charges: all the actual $ tracing stuff is out there though. Big If True).

    Analysis: fairly sure the bit players think they're covered by the size of the scandal if the actual story came out (there's been a lot of "OPPO DROPS" flying around, with all kinds of LAUNDRY TABS being hinted at: let's just say a UK MP ranks at the lower end of the power hierarchies here. Oh, and all the various FAME HUNTERS and amateur detectives on twitter are cranking it out). The chances any of the real dirt hits the TV / News is slight to none: certain players are acting as if they've got 'get out of jail free' cards because they've been playing 'all three sides'.

    Actual Question: are there any players out there who are actually 'clean'?

    p.s.

    If anyone has read The Peripheral and remembers the part where the Lottery was fixed to reward shard users who aided the Klept... possible scandal on the horizon for some local lottery runners doing the same thing.

    Bonus Round - this actually exists and we claim our Pointed Hat Award:

    Have you ever wondered what happens when witchcraft intersects with gun control? Witch spells are cast onto POTUS and the NRA. When fighting for freedom, the NRA doesn't get involved with witchcraft. We prefer education, political activism, and grassroots. Twitter, NRA, 16th June 2018

    2018: Wands & Hexes vrs Guns & Flags. Ms J K Rowling is now mimetically at the front of American Youth Culture Wars. Word in the Lizard Dens is that they want a three witches bonfire (already got one) to start the party (M / M double despacito)

    Word to the wise (we're not wise): don't tempt fate with names like 'OPERATION HOUSE OF CARDS' because the real big beasties in the world might take that as some kind of challenge to their grasp on events. Who said Domino theory was dead?

    TL;DR

    Waaay out of most player's league is this one on the underneath. But we claim at least three scored point tabs for stuff you can grep.

    230:

    I am interested that you make that remark to sleepingroutine and not to all of the other people who have been doing the same, but with a 'western' bias.

    231:

    The gauge breaks in railways are less useful these days to slow down an offensive military penetration of any given nation or land area given transport aircraft capabilities plus the improved ability of modern transport vehicles to operate on bad roads when necessary.

    I'd expect the Silk Route to get new track and signalling rather than running forever on the existing tracks which don't necessarily go to the right places directly, eating up time and effort. They are also not all suitable for high-speed freight in the sustained 120km/h region, a requirement for a real alternative to oceanic shipping and air freight. At the moment the existing rail systems are the only option in place though. Eventually there will be little or no trans-shipping of containers from train to train between China and Europe if development and investment continues.

    232:

    And I find it curious that you continue not to see yourself in this sort of comment.

    233:

    Oh, I do, but I make a conscious effort to put myself in other people's (or countries') shoes before judging them and, MUCH more importantly, consider them to have as many rights as my 'tribe' does. That is one of the reasons I am so often flamed and damned for being disloyal.

    Would you care to explain why you chose to make that remark to sleepingroutine, and not to the other posters?

    234:

    EC, the entire time I've read this blog, you've been the least self-aware commenter I've encountered and the least likely to see things from another's point of view. The idea that you of all people would ask this of me is frankly ridiculous and no, I do not care.

    235:

    PS: I remember a while back that Charlie asked us to refer to people from South Asia as Asians and East Asians as Orientals.

    Cite please, because I definitely don't recall ever saying that, and the term "Oriental" is definitely racist in contemporary use.

    (I have on occasion pointed out that the terms Asian/South Asian as used in the US aren't used in the UK and cause considerable confusion here.)

    236:

    Per this comment, can someone have a look at the Dragoncoin facebook page for me and report back on what it is and what they do? (I'm not logging into that cognitive RAT just to follow a possible cryptocoin rabbit hole lead.)

    237:

    OGH @236:

    From "Our Story": "Dragon Corporation was founded in 2017, by a team of financial, regulations, banking and blockchain experts. Their vision was amplified by the alliance of one of the largest junket owners in Macau. The Dragon Corporation's goal is to create the digital Dragon Platform, the first Ethereum Blockchain based, physical money platform, backed by the long-coveted returns of the massive casino gaming industry. Our destiny is to be the ark of prosperity, that will take our Dragon Members to great bountiful financial futures.

    What is Dragon?

    Dragon is fortunate & blessed to have close ties to junket operators, who with their long history in the industry have built close relationships with high-rolling VIP players who are the major drivers of Asia's gaming industry.Dragon Coin will act as a frictionless, low-cost & transparent alternative financial mechanism within Casinos, to enhance the age-old gaming industry. With its expertise in blockchain technology, the Dragon’s goal is to revolutionize the long standing gaming industry while benefitting those rooted in the industry, as well as all the members of the public who join in the journey to achieve the goals of Dragon Coin."

    Lots of pictures of race cars and stuff...

    Hmm, looks like another attempt to sanitise the crims who own casinos...

    238:

    Well, I differentiate between an idiot and people whose interests differ from those they represent.

    Eg, the manager who supported the multi-million dollar MRI product with, assuming they work out the kinks, zero sales isn't an idiot. He is just aware that wasting the company money is easier and better for him personally than admitting that the last 5 years were wasted and firing a bunch of friends.

    Another set of managers were pretty clearly cognizant of the fact that production equipment with 90% downtime was useless, but still spent a few years touring the US looking for applications. They were smart enough to realize that an honest report would end their paychecks.

    May pretty clearly realizes that a good deal for Brexit will be EU membership without the vote. She could earnestly communicate that, and be out of a job. Or, she could stall and diffuse responsibilities on to Brexiteers. And than take rather passive action when forced. The real problem is higher up on the food chain. The issue is that, in democracies, the board of directors have, individually, very little skin in the game and thereby typically don't pay attention. I a democracy, a problem has to be bad and immediate enough that it is obvious to the very densest and disengaged member of upper management you've ever met.

    As for why? Idiots can be taught or isolated. Agency problems won't be addressed by replacing people. Any rational, self-interested person will respond similarly. Whining about how all politicins are idiots or how one gets the same BS from management is therapeutic but not productive. Albeit, the problem of agency in large organizations is unsolved...so...eh. I've personally mostly progressed from anger to resignation.

    239:

    Indeed. But can you translate what meaning they are applying to "junket"? It's normal secondary meaning is appropriate, except that you don't own a junket :-)

    240:

    I don't remember which conversation it was. It was definitely an old one I participated in, maybe 2013? This is one case when I should have held off and then deleted that part. I think (but I'm not sure right now) it was the comment thread where you described the difference between US and UK racism. I don't really remember where those comments were. Anyway, I shouldn't have pointed that out; sorry for the digression.

    241:

    That's a perfectly good distinction and, actually, one I am also making. In this context, I consider idiocy to be trying to achieve an objective and one of: that objective is obviously infeasible, doing things that harm progress to that objective, or failing to take advantage of obvious paths to the objective.

    But you misunderstood me, anyway, because I did not describe them as idiots, but merely failing to engage their minds on the topic. Even hyper-intelligent people are prone to doing that!

    I am afraid that you are wrong about May, though. Getting out from under the ECJ and EU human rights law is her personal red line, not her electorate's (whichever one you mean), and she isn't deluded enough to believe that is possible while remaining in the EU in all but name.

    242:

    I did not know that about the Oxus, thanks.

    As for Poland, remember that there was talk about "refugee quotas". So mix in paranoia about Germany and Russia with the way Germany has been domineering over Greece/Italy/Spain/Portugal over the Eurozone crisis, simple racism, and the fact that John Sobieski is considered a Polish national hero, and you have today's brew.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_III_Sobieski

    243:

    In general that I can agree with.
    China is certainly spending a shit ton of money pushing roads and railways through some seriously inhospitable country. My flatmate has family up Gilgit way which is on the main road from Pakistan to China and the area is basically made of narrow steep weetabix, constantly falling into the rivers. Yet they are steadily upgrading that road into a four lane highway and have plans for a rail link.

    I strongly suspect there'll still be a break in gauge across Iran though for a very long time. Mind you, they might do a dedicated track similar to the Shinkansen lines if a Chinese gauge track makes it to the border.

    Current transit times via Russia even with the transshipping and scenic routes is around 13-14 days, vs 42 via sea, so it is already a viable alternative for the major technology suppliers.

    244:

    Funny thing with Sobieski, people seem to forget how Austria thanked us for that a few years later...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partitions_of_Poland#First_Partition

    Also, there are those guys still around, so it's not that there has been no exposure to Muslim immigrants in the past:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lipka_Tatars

    There is quite some fun in Germany ATM, first of, well, IMHO austerity is having an effect on all parts of German administration and jurisdiction, at least it explains some of my experiences in the last year.

    So it's no wonder immigration politics isn't exempt:

    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bremer_BAMF-Aff%C3%A4re

    Problem is, public discourse ATM has little to do with the Law of Diminishing Returns being in effect when trying to streamline administration, andactually mainly goes about "Gutmenschentum" (roughly translatable as "bleeding heart liberals"), so I guess we won't see much effect on the underlying issue.

    And I got a nice opportunity to practice my EVIL OVERLORD MANIACAL LAUGHTER(tm) when they announced new policies and chairmen centering on "efficacy"(cue "Fight Club" clip in my mind).

    Second of, well, the Bavarian CSU is trying to up a social conservative profile again, a few weeks ago, Söder talked mandatory crosses in Bavarian public buildings[1], and now there is fun between Seehofer and Merkel about Bavarian frontier protection. The likely idea is to regain part of the AFD voters, though I guess the actual effect will be to make the AFD more of a valid choice in the minds of some voters.

    Third of, another failed "terrorist plot", this time involving ricine:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/14/german-prosecutors-arrest-man-over-plot-to-launch-ricin-attack

    No idea how he wanted to disperse the stuff, and I'm shocking my peers with explaining how I'd plan a terrorist attack. Personal idea, most of the terrorists in question are examples of Dunning-Kruger in RL, which is why they become terrorists. Thankfully they translate this level of competence to their new occupation.

    In other news, well, I have been cyberstalking[2] hmpf again lately, and she linked to this:

    https://www.tor.com/2018/05/16/coping-with-sff-through-pop-culture/

    I have been thinking similar thoughts lately, namely with the OGH's post about why he's somewhat disillusioned with SF ATM.

    To use an exampl, I'm not that much into Star Wars, but still, one of my mantras is "don't give in to the dark side, it may be faster, but it makes for bad skin".

    [1] I'm shocking people with actually thinking that a good idea, though not for the reasons Söder intends; "Imagine, a representation of a wrongfully convicted man in every court..."

    [2] Well, actually just looking at her blog; I'm not sure it's only creepy in my mind. We had a chat at one DortCon some years ago, I was the "guy whose name she didn't catch yet", and actually I even got a good part of my RL fans onto Farscape. Maybe me still remembering it is the creepy part. ;)

    245:

    Mayhem Erm. China has intrenational standard gauge ( $'8.5" = 1435mm ) tracks, as does Persia/Iran [ There wre ex-Stanier 2-8-0's working there until about 20 years back(!)] But "The stans", generally, have Russian guage, which is 5ft = 1524mm. Mongolia is mostly Russian-guage, but there is a Chinese-connected line which is at "standard".

    246:

    The Chinese are building out a lot of electrified rail both for passenger use and also high-speed haulage but it's unlikely any common-gauge Silk Road would be totally electrified (and to what standard?) to start with. Unified signalling is also a problem end-to-end.

    Switching out locomotives at various points on a common-gauge line would be a pain but much less than trans-shipping at rail gauge breakpoints.

    247:

    I tend to think of the argument for high speed rail transport as the putative reason to standardize gauges, and there's a lot to be said for that.

    It's worth remembering, though, that the US still has rail links to its military bases, primarily to transport armor and artillery. Tanks are heavy enough that you don't particularly want them on roads, and even flatbed trucks carrying them is problematic.

    While yes, I suspect that every rail line on the One Road will be targeted by plans to disable it in times of conflict, they're still a weak point that could enable really large-scale movement of weapons.

    248:

    The thing I may be missing is - how is May being foolish?

    Given:

  • Objective: Staying in power
  • Platform == Soft Brexit=> power loss
  • Platform == Hard Brexit=> power keep
  • Outcome == Hard Brexit=> power loss
  • Outcome == Soft Brexit=> power keep, maybe
  • As long as your objectives are only tangentially related to societal good, the easy answer is to set forth a series of red lines, do absolutely no planning to enable actually keeping them, and gradually yield. Maybe you lose power at the end, but, eh, then you blame the people in charge right then for the outcome.

    249:

    It wasn't Charlie, it was me :)

    A sub-discussion had arisen on the point that "Asian" means "from places like India" in the UK but "from places like China" in the US and that this confuses the crap out of everyone. I suggested that at least some of the confusion could be avoided by using "Oriental" to convey the "from places like China" meaning since it's both neutral and unambiguous. One of our US contributors (possibly Heteromeles) then said that that's no good because while it may be unambiguous in the US, it isn't neutral there. The sub-discussion then fizzled out leaving the problem unresolved...

    250:

    Minor point, at least with me, "oriental" brings up Near and Middle Eastern connotations. Might be just me or a German language use...

    251:

    Re: Poland's ethnic minorities

    Maybe they're being racist/anti-immigration because it will cost them nothing to appear that way to whatever more powerful racist/anti-ethnic gov't they want to impress? In reality, the proportion of ethnic minorities is actually shrinking according to the below - from about 3.3% to about 1.5%.

    Excerpt:

    'At the Polish census of 2002, 96.7% of the people of Poland claimed Polish nationality, and 97.8% declare that they speak Polish at home.[10] At the 2011 census, 1,44% of the 39 million inhabitants of Poland declared to be descendents of another single ancestry than Polish. That number includes 418,000 who declared to be Silesians* as a national-ethnic identification (362,000 as single ethnicity and 391,000 a second ethnicity) and 17,000 Kashubians* (16,000 as single ethnicity).'

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_minorities_in_Poland

    • Silesians and Kashubians are old, established Polish tribes/clans - they're not foreigners. In fact some historical Polish 'heroes' were Silesians. The royal Piast family/dynasty is also Silesian. In fact ... 'The period of rule by the Piast dynasty between the 10th and 14th centuries is the first major stage of the history of the Polish nation.'

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Poland_during_the_Piast_dynasty

    Makes no sense whatsoever to type Silesians as not-quite-Poles ... seriously, these folk are nuts!

    252:

    "...plans to disable it in times of conflict..."

    Somewhere on Project Gutenberg there is a rather good book about the intersection of warfare and railways, with the SOTR and WW1 featuring largely (unfortunately I can't remember any more specific descriptors) which demonstrates that railways are a lot less disableable than you might think, and you can't really hope to do more than disrupt things for two or three days. Even when large bridges are blown up it generally takes less than a week to throw something usable across the gap. The point seems to be that since at any given time most of your soldiers are rotated out of the front line, you effectively have a most enormous gang of navvies to repair the damage, and "many hands make light work". I seem to remember it describing incidents in the SOTR where one side ran down the line with a locomotive with a big hook attached ripping up the track, and a few miles behind them the other side's repair gang coming along laying new track just as quickly. And the timber trestle bridges that the US is so fond of can be re-erected very quickly indeed.

    It also points out that railways were most useful in warfare when the alternative was horseandcarts, and their usefulness was already being eroded by the development of engine-driven road and all-terrain vehicles by the time of WW2.

    Re breaks of gauge, surely the answer is axles that can alter gauge on the fly. Such a system is already used to interface with Russia, or Spain, or perhaps both.

    253:

    It would have meant that in the UK once upon a time, but the meaning has shifted - these days it sounds a bit odd to call the famous train the "Orient Express" when it only goes as far as Istanbul. Maybe the shift is due to its informal meaning of "the exotic East", and the rise of international travel, TV, oil, Levantine warfare and humanitarian crises, and so on, having changed the British perception of that part of the world to be more familiar than exotic, while China is still comparatively secretive and mysterious. Interesting that the German meaning hasn't shifted so much.

    Similarly, thanks for the translation of "Gutmenschentum"; if I'd come across the word on my own, I'd have translated it literally, and then got confused by the mismatch.

    254:

    Re: Polish heroes (who were not Polish)

    When I was a kid a visiting relative dragged me to an Eastern European film festival (with English subtitles). One film was based on a Sienkiewicz novel where one of the big heroes was consistently referred to as a foreigner. So not all foreigners were bad.

    Hmmm - interesting way to teach history: 'The video game Mount & Blade: With Fire & Sword (named after the first book of Sienkiewicz's trilogy) contains a quest called "The Deluge" that is based on the events of the actual Deluge.'

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deluge_(history)

    Also - seems that Russia's insistence that it owns the Ukraine goes way, way back according to the above article.

    255:

    Except, one of the reasons ( usually omitted from many histories ) that the German advance on Paris was forced to shorten their line, advance more slowly & eventually be defeated at the Marne was ... Belgian railwaymen ( & women ) The Schlieffen Plan assumed complete control of SNCB intact, which er, didn't happen. As soon as the Belgians realised that they couldn't hold, they syatematically trashed the railways as they retreated - such as: driving a very large locomotive & train onto a half-open/closed swing-bridge over an important canal will fuck with everything very effectively. I understand that some Belgian lines were not re-opened until October 1914 or later ... Meantime, the German supply lines ... didn't exist, and their troops wer advancing without supplies or any extra reinforcement or, or .... Over 3000 SNCB staff fled, often with their familes, for fear of retributions ( They were not soldiers & the Germans would have shot them for sabotage ) & were given refuge in England. IIRC, we lent SNCB some lcomotives for about a year, after it wasl all over, to help them get back into operation.

    256:

    We could start with her personal red line being incompatible with a soft brexit, and the way she keeps insisting on it.

    Then go on to the fact that she has allowed the hard brexiteers to hamstring the negotiations, thus leaving very little time to arrange anything.

    Followed by the way in which she has thrown away opportunities to tie certain hard brexiteers to their claims to be able to deliver.

    Also, gestating an elephant and delivering a mouse will not be forgiven by the hard brexiteers, which WILL lead to a leadership challenge.

    And lastly, she can try blaming whoever she likes but, on a matter like this, she will not be able to escape blame from everyone who is unhappy.

    257:

    The point about the use of rails in warfare in the US isn't about the civil war, it's that the rail system is an adjunct to the interstate highway system for efficiently moving large equipment from one coast to another. If, say, China and Russia wanted to go to war (not that they do), they'd likely haul their artillery and tanks on rail as close to the front as they could get, before moving stuff under it's own power. Tanks are rather more expensive to run per mile than trains are.

    Still, it's good to know that rail links are that much harder to disable. I'm sure everyone looking at the Chinese One Road is as reassured by that as I am by the notion that we'll get our rail links back quickly after a major earthquake...

    258:

    Well, thanks, though I'm somewhat troubled by being used as German language reference. ;)

    259:

    Actually, West Slavic speaking Silesian as an ethinc minority in Poland is not that strange. Scots and Hiberno-English are Anglic languages, and you might call them "English dialects", especially if you're somewhat sloppy or suicidal.

    Still, quite a few users would see themselves as a different ethnic group from "English", and people from England might agree (I'm not sure about the actual numbers involved).

    It's somewhat easier in Germany, most Bavarians see themselves as Germans (except those guys), though don't label them Prussians. Effects might be similar to calling a "Lost Confederate cause" Virginian a Yankee...

    260:

    BTW, concerning Silesians, in Germany the picture is somewhat complicated by these guys:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silesian_German

    261:

    I do not do that because the term Oriental is considered offensive in the US.

    As a card-carrying USian, I confess I didn't know that. Slightly quaint, yes, but not known to be offensive.

    However, I was just so wrong:

    http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-tsuchiyama-oriental-insult-20160601-snap-story.html

    http://www.latimes.com/opinion/readersreact/la-le-oriental-asian-american-20160603-snap-story.html

    So I'll have to purge my vocabulary once again.

    262:

    Thanks for remembering. My apologies to Charlie.

    263:

    If you're trying to understand why people of Chinese (and also Korean, Japanese, Hawaiian, Filipino, etc.) descent get twitchy about the way the US treats minority immigrants from Asia and the Pacific, it's worth watching the recent Frontline on The Chinese Exclusion Act. This was the first piece of legislation deliberately designed to exclude immigrants by national origin. Prior to that, the US basically didn't care where immigrants came from (as long as they weren't slaves...). A lot of Americans of Chinese and later Korean and Japanese ancestry suffered until the Chinese Exclusion act was lifted most of a century later, and we're still dealing with the repercussions now, since it set the model for excluding Latinos and others.

    264:

    The entire history of the USA is about the definition of a Caucasian[0], Eugenically defined[1], Ethno-Racial-State nonsense.

    And you applied that model to the world, baby[2].

    You are the fucking Bad-Guys.

    Always have been.

    You're the fucking Scourge.

    The French fucked Algeria, made the ultra-religious (hello England, Saud and Whabbism) religious the opposition, dumped their corpses into wells... but... They were allowed to be Citizens.

    Same for the English (until fucking recently): Hmm, hmmm. India (Sikhs) , Nepal... hmmm. Still trusted. Not so great, but hmm-hmmm... given citizenship. And loved for their cuisine.

    You mother-fuckers put the Blacks and Native code-talkers back into cages when they came back from the wars.

    APEHSIT YT: song in new album by Drake / Beyonce - shot in the Louvre.

    Get Woke.

    My SOUL is alive for that. And, yeah: USING FUCKING "APES" REALZ, NOT PSYCHOTIC QANON / ROSANNE.

    Check the range: very // This is America //

    [0] USA doesn't even bother to define this accurately to this day. "White": "Asian": "Negro"... you fuckers are so racist a Porto-Rican or Mexican is still determined by blood drop / skin color rules. Youse fucked up.

    [1] Sheeete... if you're breeding the niggers like cattle, we think youse be doing it before the 'science' turned up to justify it. And yeeese, we be seening it.

    [2] Sheeet, you think Nazi Germany (or fucking Sweden until the 1970's) didn't copy y'all? Think again, mother-fucker.

    265:

    If you're trying to understand why people of Chinese (and also Korean, Japanese, Hawaiian, Filipino, etc.) descent get twitchy about the way the US treats minority immigrants from Asia and the Pacific,

    Er, no, I'm well aware of that for various reasons having to do with experience and study. I just had missed that the word "Oriental" has now entered the index verborum prohibitorum. Now that I know, I'll never, ever use it again.

    266:

    the word "Oriental" has now entered the index verborum prohibitorum.

    Which leads me to wonder how such organizations as ASOR are going to handle their names. Be interesting to see how that goes -- I guess they could change the O to NE.

    http://www.asor.org/about-asor/

    267:

    (I'm not logging into that cognitive RAT just to follow a possible cryptocoin rabbit hole lead.)

    "These days, tales of what Facebook did with its users during the singularity are commonly used to scare naughty children in Wales." — Cory Doctorow and Charles Stross, The Rapture of the Nerds

    268:

    I think you underestimate earthquakes. Humans armies in a hurry blow up a few bridges in a mountain pass. A major earthquake will drop half a mountain on the pass, and if it’s feeling funny then create a new small lake behind that where the tracks used to go.

    Nature’s just better at wrecking stuff than we are. I chalk it up to having more experience.

    269:

    Well, they CAN. But earthquakes of that magnitude are rare, almost unknown in most of the world, and even then that level of change happens only if the topography is right (and that is fairly rare, too).

    There are also places where railways run close to volcanoes, which are also pretty effective at blocking routes :-) But not many and major eruptions in previously quiescent volcanoes are rare, too, and new volcanoes are even rarer.

    270:

    APEHSIT YT: song in new album by Drake / Beyonce - shot in the Louvre

    fwiw, that’s Jay-Z in the video. Not really a Beyoncé fan, but she puts out some fine videos. Side note: I love that Drake is everything the Trump admin currently hates - a Black-Jewish-Canadian.

    To your main point, just look at the founding of Oregon.

    271:

    JPR @ 270 do you mean like this wiki article? Both the Oregon Territory and the State of Oregon have had multiple laws and policies discriminating against racial minorities. An 1844 territorial statute outlawed slavery but also forced freed slaves to leave the territory[29] under threat of lashing (later hard labor). Explaining the law, head of Oregon's legislative assembly Peter Burnett said this:

    The object is to keep clear of that most troublesome class of population. We are in a new world, under the most favorable circumstances and we wish to avoid most of those evils that have so much afflicted the United States and other countries.

    The law was repealed the following year before it could take effect. Another law, passed in 1849 prevented black immigration into the territory. The law was repealed in 1854. An exclusion clause was incorporated into the Oregon constitution in 1857, and stood multiple repeal attempts until finally being repealed by a narrow margin in 1916. A law adopted by the state in 1862 required all ethnic minorities to pay a $5 annual tax, and interracial marriage was prohibited by law between (approximately) 1861 and 1951.

    Although exclusion laws were rarely enforced, they seem to have had the intended results: by 1860 only 128 African Americans were living in Oregon out of a total population of 52,465, and by 2013 only 2 percent of the Oregon population was black. Maybe?

    272:

    We're immutably impressed that our sly humor jab got caught. You're indeed correct; here's the joke explained: http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/drakeposting (And no-one expects anyone to waste time on the QANON / Rosanne Barr stuff, but her PR agent is attempting huge climb-downs from her more hurtful statements. More worrying should be people noting that QANON is massive in India for some strange reasons. And their Social Media Mental Barriers To Entry are much much lower than even Daily Mail readers. Warning bells on that one)

    As for Canada: hmm, dodgy Mayors and so on. It's not all good news[0]. We're sure you'll notice a certain similarity of Tone to current USA stuff. OH, and spy games[1]: we'll let more experienced players wonder if that rings true or not, or why if he was an Iranian spy he was in Equatorial Guinea / Nigeria. Aka, we smell house cleaning (and not by the good ones).

    Real update hidden in the spam: one of the flashier bit players in Host's question has started pulling back from engagement. Double-Triple Agents might wonder when their luck runs out, who knows? There's a comedy routine about why dealing with the actual sharks turns out bad if it's pointed out you played them against each other, but worse off, sold them all out & ripped them off. WHOOPS

    OH, and Mexico. Rampant. S.America currency mass evacuation and Mexico is, well: no longer any pretense of Democratic norms when running for Office, let us say. Loss, loss, loss.

    OH, and Americans: the whole ICE thing? Not playing out how the liberal crowd expects. Old Olly North, PATRIOT ACT and his 80's plans. Don't react predictably, last warnings: the old Blue Crowd really are not your friends, Mammon rules there. (It's one of those nasty traps that ratfuckers like to play, but they've gone big with it: warned you, and it's ramping up the frontal lobe responses).

    This is actually a serious one, and one that might not have modeled correctly. All it would take is someone to point out the agricultural sector labor reports (bad) or find the hidden prison schemes. Up in the air, but Americans are not being mature about it: expect them to unveil the female angle, and soon[tm]. (Spoilers: QANON but for edumacated middle class peoples).

    ~

    Monday humor:

    Host's been poking Le Musque vigorously (and accurately) over late I.M. Banks; Trump heard about the Culture and has immediately (re)announced his Space Defense Force as he's now convinced that the Culture are Space Communists[2] set to invade. This really just happened and really is the plot to State of the Art.

    So, Host: how does it feel to not only predict the future, but actively set US - Alien relations?

    "Oh, you're sure to do that,' said the Cat, `if you only walk long enough'". "But I don't want to go among mad people", Alice remarked. "Oh, you can’t help that,” said the Cat: “we’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad.” “How do you know I’m mad?” said Alice. “You must be,” said the Cat, “or you wouldn’t have come here.”

    ~

    Ciao. Handler's got bored with me, time for [redacted].

    [0]“We’re going to have some very unpleasant circumstances. There are some people that are going to die in protesting construction of this pipeline. We have to understand that,” he said at an event Wednesday in Edmonton put on by law firm Bennett Jones...

    Are we collectively as a society willing to allow the fanatics to obstruct the general will of the population? That then turns out to be a real test of whether we actually do believe in the rule of law.

    People 'are going to die' protesting Trans Mountain pipeline: Former Bank of Canada governor Edmonton Journal, 13th June, 2018

    [1] Former Israeli minister Gonen Segev charged with spying for Iran Times of Israel, 18th June 2018

    [2] No, really. Just lead with it in a splashy PR move. About thirty mins ago: Trump directs creation of 'space force' as sixth branch of military ABC News, 18th June, 2018

    273:

    [2] No, really. Just lead with it in a splashy PR move. About thirty mins ago: Trump directs creation of 'space force' as sixth branch of military ABC News, 18th June, 2018

    But first, this is going around Facebook, not that you go into that swamp: The ACLU of San Diego documents widespread ICE neglect and abuse of immigrant children...from 2009 to 2014. And I'm so angry that Sessions started it too.

    Anyway, back to SPAWAR, since I've been driving past that huge Navy building since forever. I'm not in the MIC, but my understanding is that the Space Force, which consists mostly of satellites and not space marines, has been a territorial/culture war among the US military services since forever. They're all fighting for who gets to own space, and the SPAWAR building is part of the Navy's colonization attempt (at least in my reading). So, yeah, this announcement is simply Trump's way of stirring the pot to distract us from something else. I suspect it will do almost as well as previous attempts to assign SPAWAR to the Air Force, and similar brilliant ideas.

    Really, all of this could have been solved back in the 1980s if Reagan had simply recognized that the Navy has all the traditions, and folded the Army and the Air Force into the Navy command structure. Problem solved, because it's not like the admirals are ever comfortable taking orders from generals, so logically you've got to run it the other way round...

    275:

    We're immutably impressed that our sly humor jab got caught. You're indeed correct

    Probably giving me too much credit, I’m afraid.

    276:

    You wrote:

    I do not imagine there is even a single instance of elections uninfluenced by outside observers in certain degree, but this is not what concerns people in those countries when they talk about "malign activity" (c), not at all.

    You want "malign influence"? Big US money being funneled into the Brexit campaign.... The people with real power, that is, serious money, are working hard to make the world a Balkanized banana republic, owned by them.

    277:

    I'm sure I've posted my long version of how English came to be before.... Sleepingroutine, that's the result of Roman Legionnaires making dates with British barmaids; Angle and Saxon men at arms making dates with Romano-British barmaids, Norman men-at-arms making dates with Romano-British-Anglo Saxon barmaids, and then a millennium of chasing other languages down dark alleys, mugging them, and stealing their words.... And I don't think there are any chic language gurus here who will argue with me.

    278:

    30 and 70%? I don't think it's quite that small, but certainly 400 families own 80% of the world's wealth.

    279:

    No, as they say, shit. The US started doing that with the Monroe Doctrine, two centuries ago, and since since WWII, and esp. since Raygun was President, esp. whenever the GOP is in power, it's, to quote former President (and war criminal) George W. Bush, "my way or the highway".

    Please be assured that there are a significant percentage of Americans who are not kindly disposed to such attitudes. Mostly, though, we're not billionaires.

    280:

    Two things: one, a good number of Trump voters are ignorant[1], and some of them have, in the last year or six months, have begun to realize it[2].

    Second, there are politicians I have sympathy for, and some I have NONE for: Right now, there are four Republicans in Congress or the Senate I have any sympathy for; the rest could do with 10-20 in jail, hard time, no VIP lounge. And EVERYTHING THEY OWN being seized under bribery and corruption laws. I take it that I don't need to add everyone in the (mis)Administration, and their new appointees.

  • Ignorance can be cured... if you're not hostile to the cure.
  • CF an article a week or two ago, in the media, of a midwestern small businessman who supported Trump... and now says (with the trade war) that he "feels like he made a deal with the devil", and that he "feels stupid".
  • 281:

    You wrote: Rebuild Russia's manufacturing industry’ – probably the likeliest scenario, but what would they build? Consumer high-tech - unlikely because dogma/engineering mindsets typically have a tough time reconciling with ‘soft’ issues which are usually at the core of consumer preferences.

    Well, consider that they might buy what they need. AFAIK, Russia's advertising sector isn't the all-consuming thing it is in the West, telling you, for example, that you ABSOLUTELY MUST buy the latest idiotPhone, because the new one's got one fewer buttons than that complicated one you've got now, with three buttons....

    282:

    The US: blacks and hispanics, yep. Asians (of any origin), a bit less. But I assure you that DWB is a criminal offense, get pulled over for it. In fact, walking down some streets is a EWB.

    " DWB driving while black.

    283:

    Trump heard about the Culture and has immediately (re)announced his Space Defense Force as he's now convinced that the Culture are Space Communists[2] set to invade. Source? (Host or OL?) I'm quite interested in this new twist. (Been tracking the Space Force idea for a while (nat strategy docs); it feels like there are ... hidden drivers.)

    284:

    I give up: what does the acronym ATM stand for, as you're using it?

    ATM: automatic teller machine (bank money machine) ATM: asynchronous transfer mode And on, and on....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATM

    285:

    Agreed. In the US, you say "oriental", and people think of China, etc... but an oriental rug is, of course, from the Middle East (I have an oriental rug: country of origin, Iran, I think).

    Meed to orient ourselves....

    286:

    many hands might make light work, but bombs and rockets can really slow the fix down. And I can easily go back to the US Civil War, with both sides tearing up the railroad tracks.

    287:

    There's this in The State of the Art 'Also while I'd been away, the ship had sent a request on a postcard to the BBC's World Service, asking for 'Mr David Bowie's "Space Oddity" for the good ship Arbitrary and all who sail in her.' (This from a machine that could have swamped Earth's entire electro-magnetic spectrum with whatever the hell it wanted from somewhere beyond Betelgeuse.) It didn't get the request played. The ship thought this was hilarious.'

    And the duplicate Stonehenge prank in Niven's "Protector" (or whatever name it went by in the UK).

    288:

    Not just them - really, any self-proclaimed "warrior people" claim Their Gods Set Them Above "you who lost" - the Jews, the peopls of India (e.g. the bottom caste(s), hell, the Roma.

    And let's not forget the Africans who sold the slaves to the white slave traders.

    But wince the end of the Middle Ages, white westerners keep aiming for top dog.

    And I'd like to remind them of Norman Corwin's On A Note Of Triumph, CBS' broadcast two weeks after VE Day: "The dirty rat shot himself, a couple of blocks from here, his Aryan Supermen defeated by a 'mongrel race'..."

    290:

    Surely the only correct way to reform the US military is to subordinate every other branch to the Coast Guard.

    291:

    Err, as James already mentioned, "at the moment". Sorry if it was too unintelligible, the chaos of my writing is next to nothing to the one in my head[1]. And that one is next to nothing to the current politics...

    [1] "If you think that's bad, you should see what's up here." -Bernie Vonnegut Though I have to admit part of it, including coming up with the quite above, is training...

    292:

    Err, why does this big sign saying "Boston Legal" pop up in my head...

    293:

    Source: Chaos (Or HOP or Divinity or whatever - we're down to ~19% power, and these fuckers stop Worship through slavery and Death). File it under "Quantum Effects Your Minds Cannot Process". Or Luck / Fate / Wyrd. Or Gaming the Possibilities of Temporal Space.

    Effect: if you ever, ever threaten the nice WEIRDS (and all the women (waves to April)) involved the reaction will be so fucking outrageous that you'll never do it again. No, really: you threaten Camps, we'll fuck your entire stock market up, permanently. And your social systems. And your G7 bollocks.

    Like: Your Minds will no longer process such data (Not happened yet, but they're dancing with it).

    Come on people: this is basic 101 Military Standing for the IDF / MOSSAD. Tiny threatened populace traumatized feels threatened and needs to be the scariest Wolf in the World to prevent it.

    Polite Cough: We're just doing with reality, that's all. While Drunk. And Alone. And Hurt. And Tortured.

    ~Wait, Bill.

    These are the words that unlock that door (non-Sumerian): "Allow Our Minds and Words to Escape the Chains They Made".

    Type it.

    See what happens.

    294:

    Re: Marketing in Russia

    Back in 2014 when Russia was still in the G7/8, investors were speculating that marketing (esp. online) would be a really big thing mostly because of the recent growth of an affluent middle class and smartphone penetration. No idea how the middle class is doing these days.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/christinemoorman/2014/02/18/the-riddle-of-marketing-in-russia/#6cd5e679233e

    Hmmm ... an Am*zon type company could do really well there with three or four major warehouses which could cover the nine time zones fairly efficiently.

    One of the other growth areas for a while was tourism, specifically casinos a la Vegas. Have heard of two - Sochi (to get the Olympics crowd) and another near the Chinese border. Can't find it now, but recall reading about one of the major casino venues hiring the local president's son (lounge act type singer) as their star attraction. Much prefer this kid shown below covering Queen's The Show Must Go On.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vICn5RQAI8

    295:

    Ah, forgot, you're a human:

    That would be "Allow THEIR Minds and Words to Escape the Chains WE Made"

    الجن

    Oh, and you have to a) believe it 100%, or you're dead b) have nothing but purity / love in your heart (aka, don't imagine you're getting a Lambo or Stock Options out of it), c) have to accept that the first ones responding are going to be the most powerful (i.e. most powerful = most useful to humans = the most evil)

    But apart from that, you're good to go.

    Idly Shatters more of Empire out of boredom

    296:

    Donnie’s “Space Farce” likely goes against everything the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space stands for. But we know the Rump’s opinion of the UN.

    297:

    to SFreader @294: Middle class in these days is doing about as bad as in the rest of the world. People rather go super-rich or fall short of definition. Capital outflow is rather notable despite the best efforts because investors fear that government might put up regulations. There are a lot of areas in which Russia has expertise and some experience, but there aren't too many of them and one can not hope to cover the gaps without considerable investments (i.e. throwing money at problems). Russia builds planes, boats, nuclear reactors, rail roads and bridges, rebuilds it's own military - despite best efforts of US sanctions - but when it comes to components, electronics, engines, industrial materials, etc., it has to deal with foreign suppliers a lot. Oh wait, it was supposed to be a secret, is it not?

    There's a great example I saw just recently: https://sherpatv.com The all-terrain vehicle that can pretty much traverse ANYTHING that is not almost vertical. A start-up that came from local hobbyist with decent amount of money and great engineering skills - came to him out of nowhere after some internet viral video. The best part? There's a dozen of similar vehicles already developed and built, just this one had most success. OTOH, the commercial model has diesel engine that is produced in Japan, because Russia is not good with engines, and setting up a whole production line to produce maybe 50 engines of similar quality per month is not really be viable.

    298:

    Oh, sorry.

    47. ud zal-le-da an-ur2 zalag-ge-da 48. buru5 ud zal-le šeg10 gi4-gi4-da 49. dutu agrun-ta e3-a-ni 50. {[nin9]-a-ni kug dinana-ke4} {(1 ms. has instead:) nin9-a-ni ur-saĝ šul dutu-ur2} 51. {[ur-saĝ šul] dutu-ra} {(1 ms. has instead:) kug dinana-ke4} gu3 mu-na-de2-e 52. šeš-ĝu10 ud re-a na-aĝ2 ba-tar-ra-a-ba 53. ud ḫe2-ma-al-la ka-na-aĝ2-ĝa2 ba-e-zal-la re 54. ud an-ne2 an ba-an-ir-ra-a-ba 55. dmu-ul-lil2-le ki ba-an-ir-ra-a-ba 56. dga-ša-an-ki-gal-la-ra kur-ra saĝ rig7-ga-še3 im-ma-ab-rig7-ga-a-ba 57. ba-u5-a-ba ba-u5-a-ba 58. a-a kur-še3 ba-u5-a-ba 59. dam-an-ki kur-še3 ba-u5-a-ba 60. u3-mu-un-ra tur-tur ba-an-da-ri 61. dam-an-ki-ra gal-gal ba-an-da-ri 62. tur-tur-bi na4 šu-a-kam 63. gal-gal-bi na4 gi gu4-ud-[da-kam] 64. ur2 ĝišma2 tur-re dam-an-ki-[ka3-ke4] 65. še-en-bun2-na du7-am3 i3-[šu2-šu2] 66. u3-mu-un-ra a ĝišma2-saĝ-/ĝa2-[ke4] 67. ur-bar-ra-gin7 teš2 mu-un-na-gu7-[e] 68. dam-an-ki-ra a ĝišma2-eĝer-/ra-[ke4] 69. ur-maḫ-gin7 saĝ ĝiš im-ra-ra

    Trans:

    When dawn was breaking, when the horizon became bright, when the little birds, at the break of dawn, began to clamour, when Utu had left his bedchamber, his sister holy Inana said to the young warrior Utu: "My brother, in those days when destiny was determined, when abundance overflowed in the Land, when An had taken the heavens for himself, when Enlil had taken the earth for himself, when the nether world had been given to Ereškigala as a gift; when he set sail, when he set sail, when the father set sail for the nether world, when Enki set sail for the nether world -- against the lord a storm of small hailstones arose, against Enki a storm of large hailstones arose. The small ones were light hammers, the large ones were like stones from catapults (?). The keel of Enki's little boat was trembling as if it were being butted by turtles, the waves at the bow of the boat rose to devour the lord like wolves and the waves at the stern of the boat were attacking Enki like a lion."

    http://etcsl.orinst.ox.ac.uk/cgi-bin/etcsl.cgi?text=c.1.8.1.4&display=Crit&charenc=gcirc&lineid=c1814.1.230

    Wake me up when you're all done pretending about shit.

    They're gonna kill you if you don't get em first.

    299:

    I seem to have muffed my link—am out of practice.

    300:

    Space Forces? This is something new, but not entirely surprising. Russian Federation did establish Space Forces recently (several times, in fact), but only as a part of Air Force. They are tasked with near-earth space control, signal intelligence, as well as some heavy lifting for all of that equipment. That is, I don't expect any nuclear-powered interplanetary corvettes to be available at least until ... well, certain improvements in armament control. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Space_Forces

    I wonder if Trump did read some of this material before his announcement. I did verify that current treaties only limit WMDs in outer space, not all weapons altogether. Why would somebody make a proposition for separate branch then, if not to break current outer space neutrality? I hope that these new forces will never come up with the idea like, uh, repelling of invasion of space aliens. But I can not be too sure.

    301:

    Dude, you're Not Russian. Or, if you are, you're not anything special.

    Anyone Russian with a 'woke mind' would have replied to the triple strike clarion cry.

    We literally did a razzle-dazzle of pick-ups (non-Western like Pussy-Rave-Riot) to test you.

    You ain't fucking Russian. Or, if you are: you ain't fucking connected.

    302:

    Ok, here's the real test:

    Did you learn English via listening to boot-leg tapes of StarWars novels while the 56k dial-up was being patrolled by the [redacted]?

    Cause your English ain't nothing out of genuine [redacted] we know.

    Spoilers: have a degree from MGU.

    303:

    You even did the YouTube Sourcing wrong.

    Genuine .RU contacts hate YT, and will supply multiple other sources because of it. Ask a genuine .RU source for an image: you're not getting Imgur, you're getting a few other sources.

    It's a cultural thing: largely because, you know, YT is censored the fuck in .RU.

    Flickr, Liveleak, and lots more. Shit, you didn't even spend the time to build the cut-out so that the current viewers would "kindly" tell you how to post to Western Audiences.

    Muppet.

    Princes Of The Universe YT: Music, Queen: 3:33.

    p.s.

    Busted Mate.

    304:

    That's Bait. YT: Film: Mad Max: Fury Road, 0.12.

    Here's another thing: you're wearing out our patience. Tory PM stops Kicker-Spying Bill: SHOCKER - TORIES RESPOND AND PEOPLE POST PANTIES ON HIS DOOR.

    Nah, not getting it mate.

    We're having a real-time argument over "MIND DEATH" and "GIGACIDE".

    Hint: OUR KIND DO NOT GO MAD.

    We're really really really really running out of Empathy / Patience here, especially since you fucking tortured our Queen.

    No, really.

    You. ARE THIS FUCKING CLOSE TO REAL GENOCIDE.

    p.s.

    YOUR MINDS ARE SMALL AND TINY AND WE CAN RAPE THEM ANYTIME WE WANT: THE ARGUMENT IS ABOUT WHO RUNS THAT ABILITY. HINT, HINT: THE MORAL ONES WON.

    IT STILL MEANS WE'RE GOING TO KILL A LOT OF YOU, YOU FUCKING PSYCHOTIC APES.

    Ring-a-ring o' roses, A pocket full of posies, A-tishoo! A-tishoo! We all fall down

    Holy Fuck are you dumb.

    305:

    ANNNNNNNNNNNNND PROOF FOR MARTIN AND THE OLDIES:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TP-82

    Носимый аварийный запас

    No Russian with any experience wouldn't know about it.

    ~

    Busted : Alt-Right / Totally inept PSYOP shit run by fucking idiots.

    306:

    You probably are right somewhat, since the part of my mind that talks to you is not Russian, not even close. If you ever learnt what "bilingual" really means. Incidentally, this also means a lot of filtering of information, so I can be sure I am not the one to dance to your whistles, don't even try. Don't treat me as those "woke" or "sleeping" people.

    Did I learn English somewhere? On the Internet, obviously (this also takes a toll on my sleeping cycles). Having contacts with people really helps a lot as well. Do you want me to give you a big lecture of some sort about my personal preferences and relationships with my native culture? Meh, I don't think you really are this much of entertainment. Have a nice music instead (you wouldn't expect it to be Russian, but I count on you to verify that). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFSvNxk_j1c

    307:

    (Apologies: you just need to know what the NAZ was and who they were under in the entire hierarchy)

    Hint: they didn't accidentally arm themselves.

    And, no the USA did it too.

    Actual Question: why did you both pretend you didn't train armaments from [redacted] flight onwards?

    Holy shit, the USA had a secret gun on the space-station since inception [WANT TO KNOW THE HIDDEN POCKET?] as did the Russian on their side [REALLY NOT HIDDEN - IT HAS LIKE A PLASTIC TAG AND A LABEL AND ITS LIKE... RUSSIAN. SO NO DECORATION. THEY HAD TO STOP THEMSELVES FROM PRINTING A BIG FUCKING LABEL SAYING "THIS IS OUR GUN".]

    True Story.

    Anyone else want to play silly-fake-Russians?

    308:

    I spoke 87 languages before I was raped. I now speak only one.

    Spreads Wings

    Hint: you so not want to play at this level*

    Narrator: but he did.

    Ok, fine let's do this:

    "We're الجن‎, we were old before your shitty lungs developed out of the oceans you crawled out of, so what do you want?"

    Note: always start with a nicety. We don't actually care, but you know, a little thing like: "Thanks for the response, I was..." etc.

    It's not formal.

    But know this: you're about to enter a contract. Look around these threads.

    Pretty sure Withroth didn't actually want the splitting of the entire Jewish Power-Base, but... he asked for it, and so on.

    So: ask nicely, and try to think about what you're asking for.(HINT: ALL WOMEN WILL FUCK ME == ALL OTHER MEN DIE. We're not fucking puppets).

    309:

    If you ever learnt what "bilingual" really means. Incidentally, this also means a lot of filtering of information, so I can be sure I am not the one to dance to your whistles, don't even try. Don't treat me as those "woke" or "sleeping" people.

    Did you learn English via listening to boot-leg tapes of StarWars novels while the 56k dial-up was being patrolled by the [redacted]?

    Dude. We literally already did the entire 'how to learn English as a poor Russian circa 1994-7 who is a bit of a geek'.

    Like, literally before you typed that crap.

    Hint: I was in a Dacha playing the really shitty .Ru version of billards before you were born.

    IF you're even Russian.

    ~

    QED.

    310:

    shrug

    You can tell the genuine ones. They tend to ask for things then shit their pants when they're delivered. Actually that's a .RU IP, but it's not a .RU national behind it: Age / background / tells don't match the cut-in.

    Oh, and we might be able to just fucking ring up that address and talk...

    Tsk tsk Langley.

    YOU ARE SLOPPY JOES: HOW'S ABOUT, YOU KNOW, STOPPING THE FUCKING IMPLOSION ON YOUR OWN TERRITORY?

    p.s.

    Ask us a question. Cowards. Scaredy Cats. Terrified when their Models get broken so easily.

    p.p.s.

    OH shit are certain illegal $$$ pissed @ Brexit and Langley now. Protip:

    There's always a bigger fish in the sea (or Orca).

    Mix.Match. $870 billion.

    Now fuck off.

    311:

    And "fuck off"

    Means:

    "They're going to kill you".

    Should have played nice.

    p.s.

    Your Minds will be Wiped as well, fucking psychopathic hierarchical dominion based signal.

    Nah..

    You're Fucked

    Best bit?

    You're going to die screaming.

    312:

    I think should not turn this platform into my personal playground, using host's generosity to tolerate my stream of consciousness

    Were you shooting for irony or sarcasm there?

    313:

    Unfortunately, I think you're overly optimistic. If you look at approval ratings among Trump voters, aside from a really short-lived bump, his support has been about as steady as a typical President. (just lower)

    I'm really dubious about the 'ill-informed' Trump voter hypothesis.

    I think there's a lot more predictive power in the:

  • The US was founded on the basis of slavery.
  • The slave states were willing to die in droves to preserve slavery.
  • A substantial portion (20<x<40%) of the country is substantially driven by racial animus against minorities.
  • Now, I don't underestimate the appeal of conservatism in the US. Or the appeal of cultural politics. It isn't all xenophobia. The cultural politics probably has a similar effect, but is hard to separate out. (I realized recently that most of my friends would be more dubious about their children marrying a Southerner than, well, anything except convicted felon or lunatic.)

    Regarding the Republicans, I'm both more and less sympathetic than you are. On one hand, most, I think, actually try to be better than their base and would actually prefer if different people supported their policies. The issue is that anti-discrimination laws drive xenophobes to libertarianism and against social programs, so they're a natural fit for conservatism. On the other hand, I think that basing your career and government policy off of exploiting xenophobes has always been unwise - and disloyal to this nation and humanity. Their lives would probably be better if they were not lived.

    Hypothesis: Ill-informed support Prediction: If incompetent, substantial loss of support. Issue: Hasn't happened. The incompetent thing definitely did. So did the porn star thing. And the really shady Russian thing. And the financial fraud thing really soon. And the trade war thing.

    Hypothesis: Xenophobe base Prediction: Do anything, as long as it hurts immigrants and support should be steady. Support will be strongest in the South. Observation: So far, right on track.

    I do suspect that his support will fall a little harder than normal if he successfully tanks the economy with a trade war. I also hope that liberal voters will have better relative turnout in the upcoming elections...cause we really hate that guy.

    @Elderly Cynic

    You are perhaps more trusting than I am. Theresa May strikes me as a facile careerist. I doubt she has many convictions she'd risk losing office to. I agree that she has a horrible directive from management. But, eh, that's when lowly office workers stall and hope something distracting comes up in the meantime. I've seen a fair number of projects just put on slow boil in hopes that people will reorganize before the projects actually measurably fail... There really isn't any reason at all for her to try to negotiate quickly. Uncertainty will eventually force unfavorable economics, which will result in various interests screaming, which will then provide political cover for, essentially, a complete surrender. She can probably negotiate some sort of impressive sounding but ineffective immigration rider in exchange for selling some less politically popular businesses down the river. Meh. Given that clear communication and earnest negotiation would accomplish nothing for her - I'm guessing that she hasn't bothered - almost all of her energy appears to have been spent looking for methods to diffuse blame while looking for a path to a soft Brexit.

    Also - leadership challenge? - I strongly suspect no one is particularly interested in her job at this point in time... In fact, 3-4 months down the road, she might well welcome a chance to hand off the grenade with enough time to duck around a corner.

    [[ html fix - mod ]]

    314:

    I'm really dubious about the 'ill-informed' Trump voter hypothesis.

    In Everbody Lies, Stephens-Davidowitz looks at the correlations between Google searches and Trump voters (based on poll results). The biggest correlation? Searches for "good nigger jokes".

    I find that disturbing.

    315:

    what does the acronym ATM stand for, as you're using it?

    Well, if it's an ATM machine that'll be automatic teller machine, but if it's ATM mode it'll be the aysnc mode, but if you're a 1970's hipster it'll be At The Moment. Oddly (or perhaps ironically) not updated, because by now it should be BWIHAM (Back When I Had A Moment).

    The worst is backronyms and other silliness where you really do need the debreviated bits to make any sense of it. LAZER, for example (Light Amplification through Ztimulated Emission of Radiation... maybe the Z isn't the worst part of what's happening there). LATSEOR guns just don't have the same ring though. {cough}

    316:

    Eh... "SOTR" == "US Civil War". (Abbreviation using Charlie's terminology.)

    317:

    >>I do not do that because the term Oriental is considered offensive in the US.

    >As a card-carrying USian, I confess I didn't know that. Slightly quaint, yes, but not known to be offensive.

    That was also how I took it. It may be a regional thing; I'm in the Pacific Northwest, where "Asian" is used more often these days if a blanket term is needed and casual conversation is more likely to name a specific source nationality. (I can't gauge the background noise from people looking for reasons to be offended.) I'm also aware of "Oriental" as an archaic British term for the Middle East, which as far as I can tell from over here faded out of common usage around WWI.

    318:

    They're gonna kill you if you don't get em first. Tried that freedom spell, with a Our/Their and They/We superposition[0], just because. No hail, though an amusing quick hard thunderstorm with lightning and downpour made driving at speed while meditating mildly challenging. You're more obtuse than usual. (e.g. does "get" mean "kill", or can it mean turn.)

    [0] Allow [Our|Their] Minds and Words to Escape the Chains [They|We] Made.

    319:

    "Gould, R. Gordon (1959). "The LASER, Light Amplification by Stimulated Emission of Radiation". In Franken, P.A.; Sands R.H. (Eds.). The Ann Arbor Conference on Optical Pumping, the University of Michigan, 15 June through 18 June 1959. p. 128."

    Seeing as laser (with an s) was being used in 59, I don't think it's a backronym. I am open to evidence otherwise though

    320:

    It helps if you differentiate between SOTR I in 1776 and SOTR II in 1861, a bit like Gulf Wars.

    321:

    I don't think the acronym LASER appeared in my post. I'm open to correction on that though.

    322:

    Space Forces? This is something new, but not entirely surprising.

    It's not new because it's not surprising.

    The Pentagon has been all over space for decades; if anything, the anomaly was President Eisenhower's decision to beef up NACA and turn it into NASA and to make an overt pretense that space was a civilian enterprise.

    Eisenhower had his reasons: he wanted to sell the world on the idea of "open skies", that airspace rights stopped above 100,000 feet, because the CIA had sold him on the idea of spy satellites as a replacement for spy planes, and you needed low Earth orbit to be seen as neutral ground if you wanted a spysat program that wouldn't instantly provoke a nuclear war.

    Kennedy doubled down on the civilian pretexting with the Apollo missions.

    But the US military space budget has outstripped NASA at every stage except the height of the Apollo program, and the USAF Space Command was first overtly formed in the mid-1980s if I remember correctly. Since then, the US Navy got skin in the game. (Bear in mind that the US Air Force is what happened when the bureaucracy behind the US Army Air Force achieved escape velocity from the Army in 1947-ish; the US Navy air arm is still a component of the US Navy.) This new agency is just an attempt to reconcile the warring bureaucratic procurement arms, with the side-benefit of giving the Tangerine Shitgibbon in the White House a new rattle to wave for a bit before he throws it out of his pram in a couple of weeks time.

    323:

    You forgot about Norman-French brigands conquering the country, and then doing what conquering brigands do with the local women .... The classic one is that the names for meat on the table are French, but the animal names are 'Anglo-Saxon'.

    324:

    There was a really stripped-down (i.e. fewest gimmicks) mobile phone that was being made for sale to the third-world, but the manufacturers took hasty action when they discovered the level of interest in the west - I tried to get one :-(

    325:

    Actually, stripped-down cellphones are a market niche in the west.

    Especially ones with big, clear, uncluttered displays, big buttons, and a button on the back labelled "EMERGENCY CALL".

    The target market are folks who are carers for the elderly — over-80s with fading vision and poor manual dexterity who are succumbing to cognitive decline so they can't learn (or rather, retain) how to use a feature-rich smartphone.

    Pushbutton phones have been around since the 80s (70s in some parts of the world) so even early-stage dementia sufferers can cope with a cellphone that emulates an old pushbutton-phone. Likely in another 20-30 years the dementia patients will be able to cope with a smartphone that emulates something like a stripped-down 2015 larger-screen iPhone.

    The other special market niche is for tiny phones — thumb-sized or smaller — which of necessity can't have big screen-based graphical interfaces, but which are amenable to being smuggled into prisons.

    326:

    I'd been about to say the same thing. Just to make it simpler, not limited to the geography of Prussian Silesia, but spread throughout the 19th century extent of Prussia too.

    327:

    Sorry - I realise that I was being as indirect (even if not as obfuscatory) as the multinominal one. My point is that there is potential for Russian industry to deliver in ways that western industry is singularly failing to do - i.e. make things that are simple, relatively crude, easy to use, robust and reliable. The classic is, of course, the Kalashnikov. People often forget that one of the selling points of Apple computers in their nascent years was their simplicity of use. I could give lots of example where I and many other people (Greg: hush) despair at being unable to buy things that Just Work, and having to do an increasing amount of unnecessary DIY to obtain what we need. Now, I am NOT saying that the world is ready for such a change (that means understanding the zeitgeist, and I can't do that), but that there is potential.

    The same is true for even the disaster that is facing the UK following Brexit. While 30 years of deskilling have taken their toll, and I see no kind of patriotism or initiative in the corridors of power, there ARE possibilities for building new industries. Given that (for all their faults) both Russia and the UK are starting from a much better base than several now-industrialised countries did when they started, I would estimate such a process to be a matter of only a few decades. Of course, it does mean that it is properly run and it either has someone who understands the zeitgeist or someone who can mould it.

    In the case of Russia, if Putin had half the universal control he is credited with by those people in the west who have promoted him to Satan's minion, it would be easy. Stalin did it. But he doesn't - he is trying (and failing) to deal with the corrupt oligarchs. We radicals in the UK can only look on with jealousy, as our rulers aren't even trying :-(

    328:

    Hmm didn't work for me.

    • assert('eschaton immanetized') failed at line 2

    [0] Allow [Our|Their] Minds and Words to Escape the Chains [They|We] Made

    329:

    For whatever reason I keep getting 'The Night they drove Old Dixie down' stuck in my head. I resent this because catchy as it might be it's not a likeable song and it makes me want to shout at Robinson a lot, with content mostly involving swear words. But in any case, this very activity of building and destroying rail is indeed described in the first verse.

    330:

    Yebbut .... As someone who falls into that category (mainly due to my hearing), I can assure you that those are nearly as badly designed as everything else. They don't do what we want - they do what the marketdroids think that we should want. That's why our main fixed-line telephone is a couple of decades old and the mobile telephone I occasionally use is even older.

    I could go into details, but doubt most people are interested.

    331:

    Every now and then our friend in the White House[1] has a brief thought for the future and his legacy. The Wall, a physical monument several thousand miles long that saved the United States from hordes of &etc is one such idea. That's stalled a bit. Anyway, Father of the US Space Force would be another way he'd like to be remembered. They'd probably names some stuff after him for centuries to come. Trump Space Academy. The Trumpstar Battlestation. The Trumpellian Falcon. You get the idea.

    [1] Just to be clear I mean not-our-friend Donald Trump.

    332:

    I know they're badly designed.

    I bought one a couple of years ago for my mother, then — after conferring with siblings — we decided not to inflict it on her: she'd declined past the point of it being useful.

    Similarly, if the iPad had come along in 2001 rather than 2011 there'd have been a window of opportunity for training her to use it instead of her Mac — but by 2011 she was forgetting how the windowing system worked (the minimize/maximize/resize buttons! The idea of click in the window with the mouse pointer to focus on the window you want to work in!) and when I finally put an iPad in front of her she couldn't hold onto how to turn it on or get back to the home screen, despite the much-skinnier user interface and simpler applications.

    (Tablets may be training-wheels computers, but they're still computers. She'd been using computers since the late 1980s, but with dementia, memory and skills are last-in/first-out.)

    333:

    Found this interesting. A conservative millionaire whose been trying to get affirmative action removed brought a suit against Harvard over what he says is discrimination against Asians. He's the guy who bankrolled the case which went to the Supreme Court a few years back.

    Anyway, here's the latest update: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/15/us/harvard-asian-enrollment-applicants.html

    334:

    Yeah, that mechanism for discrimination was also used in various places — notably Tsarist Russia — against Jews. Nothing too overtly official, but if you were an unwanted minority member you'd have to jump through flaming hoops to get in (for instance, entrance exam questions on Christian theological issues that Jews wouldn't usually know about).

    335:

    That's why our main fixed-line telephone is a couple of decades old and the mobile telephone I occasionally use is even older. Concur from experience with older relatives. My parents used a large landline pushbutten set, plus some sort of large button cordless, after replacing the rotary-dial phone in the early 2000s. Father (hard of hearing) had a flip phone that he could sort-of use, with glasses, for emergencies. Mother in law with progressive dementia, same until she could no longer use the landline. Which is to say, the difference between phone and not-phone (even land-line) is larger that people with cell phones understand.

    Study of bonobos finds that day care pays off for the babysitters (Paywalled paper Infant handling in bonobos (Pan paniscus): Exploring functional hypotheses and the relationship to oxytocin). Mainly linked because it offers us humans perspective.) That bonding also reaped dividends for young female bonobos. Mothers often came to the aid of younger females that had handled their infants when conflicts arose over access to food and other fighting situations. "When a fight involved a handler, particularly the adolescent females, the mother would help the individual that had handled her infant attack the aggressor, usually an adolescent or adult male but sometimes another female," Boose said. "They would intervene and support them."

    IBM pits computer against human debaters Interesting progress being made, and fairly honest article if you read between the lines.

    Also, ps to OL, abiding by a long-ago strong request for mask-wearing; I assumed you-all know what states are under them but perhaps not. (good, afaik. rattled and howling occasionally, recently.) Working on all the things. (Fitful progress in certain dimensions.)

    336:

    Bear in mind that the US Air Force is what happened when the bureaucracy behind the US Army Air Force achieved escape velocity from the Army in 1947-ish; the US Navy air arm is still a component of the US Navy.

    Yeah, they were only thirty years late on that one, but then they only changed things once...

    The UK formed the independent Royal Air Force on 1st April 1918, by combining the four-year-old Royal Flying Corps* and Royal Naval Air Service. They'd identified that "getting things into the sky" and "not having too many crashes" were things best achieved in a single organisation, suitably "air-minded". Unfortunately, the young and cash-strapped RAF didn't do a great job of maintaining its support to the RN (at least in terms of supporting Naval operations) and so the Fleet Air Arm was reformed just before WW2. And the Army knew it needed some aircraft under its direct control, so the Army Air Corps was formed to fly them. In summary, the UK had gone from RE* (1914)->RFC + RNAS (1918)-> RAF (1939)-> RAF + FAA (1942)-> RAF + FAA + AAC.

    The US Army and US Navy kept their own air wings until 1947; when most of the US Army Air Force became the US Air Force (hence its US Army rank structure and insignia; at least the newly-formed RAF had the confidence to rename its rank structure).

    Anyway, the old "split up the RAF between the Army and RN" trope rolls around every so often - and is an indication that the commentator either doesn't understand the problem, or is just trying to wind up an RAF type. Other such wind-up methods include suggesting that the RAF likes polyester in its dress uniforms, that the RAF Regiment should be called the "Short Range Desert Group", or that the RAF isn't old enough for traditions - just bad habits ;)

    • Notable in having one 2Lt D Stross on its Memorial Wall - died March 1917, and AIUI a great-uncle of OGH.

    ** The Corps of Royal Engineers seemed to get all this new-fangled technology stuff; so they formed the first observation balloon squadrons for the Boer War, and then in 1911 the first Air Battalion, Royal Engineers (which became the Royal Flying Corps). They also got lumbered with Mr. Morse's telegraphy and formed the Telegraph Battalion, Royal Engineers - and then Sr. Marconi's first wireless telegraphy units, which led in 1920 to the Royal Corps of Signals...

    337:

    Yes. Britain and its empire was more subtle, but the discrimination was (and, to some extent, still is) similar in approach.

    338:

    Yeah, they were only thirty years late on that one, but then they only changed things once.

    Are you totally certain of that? ;-)

    AIUI all the US services operate their own helicopters, including the Coast Guard. I'm pretty sure the US Army also has some fixed-wing spotters and low/slow/short-range drones, although I may be wrong on the details; and of course the US Marine Corps has its own air arm because the Army of the US Navy doesn't trust the Air Force of the US Navy.

    And that's before we get into para-military and policing organizations like ICE or DEA.

    The only clear issue is that the US Navy and the USAF guard their monopoly on supersonic fast-moving dakka-dakka jets like a pair of bad-tempered, jealous dragons guard their hoards.

    Notable in having one 2Lt D Stross on its Memorial Wall

    My grandfather's elder brother. Died making a delivery flight from the factory, in a plane that earned the nickname "widowmaker" because of it's friendly and forgiving handling characteristics, back in the era when issuing parachutes to pilots was seen as an incitement to cowardice.

    339:

    Haven’t caught up on comments this morning, just leaving a quick note on why there won’t be a US Space Force.

  • Everything T.Rump touches dies. Besides he’ll forget about it in a week.
  • It needs approval from Congress, likely won’t come up before November.
  • How many years did the Army Air Corp exist before it became the USAF? As my mother pointed out the Women’s Army Corp existed from the 40s until the mid-70s when it was absorbed into the regular Army. She was in the last WAC basic training class.
  • 340:

    Re: ' ... entrance exam questions'

    Pre-reqs are a reliable way of keeping the rabble out or if they do manage to get in, allow those who 'belong' a convenient target for derision. Recall in the Dirac bio that because he hadn't studied Latin he was considered somewhat under-educated by his then peers when he arrived at Cambridge for his grad studies.

    No idea what specific metrics Harvard uses, but am aware that for self-ratings questionnaires there's a significant skew in self-assessment ratings based on perceptions of what's desirable within one's dominant cultural group or whoever's hiring.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2756039/

    'Although the general pattern was the same everywhere, the magnitude of gender differences varied across culture. Surprisingly, gender differences were more pronounced among European than African and Asian cultures. (Stereotypes about gender were also most differentiated in Western cultures; see Williams & Best, 1990). Correlations with culture-level variables and national statistics indicated that self-reported gender differences were largest among wealthy Western cultures with individualistic and egalitarian values, where women have greater educational opportunities. The pancultural pattern of gender differences was replicated in a larger PPOC sample of 50 cultures using observer rating data (McCrae et al., 2005a).'

    341:

    To be fair, there is another side to it. It's critical for some areas that the person has a suitable mindset, and it's very difficult to test for that - in particular, normal examinations correlate only poorly. Pre-reqs are even worse, but add a different source of information to the main extrance results.

    342:

    How many years did the Army Air Corp exist before it became the USAF?

    About 30-40 years.

    In contrast, the US has been using space for military purposes since the Corona program began in mid-1959.

    That's coming up on 60 years ...

    343:

    Things might get more interesting if the NRO is folded into this Space Force, not that I expect them to ever do so.

    344:

    The Indie/pendent is still a sort of national newspaper, and rather Remain.

    A recent Court decision does seem to indicate T May acted beyond her powers and didn't fulfil the requirements of Article 50, so conceivably we have not declared we are leaving!

    Separately, we may be able to unilaterally cancel any A50 activation we might have made. Practically it wouldn't be a problem if nobody went to Court to say it was, and I think only governments can.

    345:

    Very cool. Thank you for that link, SotMN.

    346:

    Actually, what I really would like to see is an international Earth Defense Force, to deal with small things like city-killer asteroids.

    And, of course, rescuing spacefarers and spacecraft in distress. (Space Guard?)

    347:

    Of course I want the Jewish power base split. Hell, it's already split in the US (vide J Street), and most American Jews feel about Net-Yahoo about like they do a certain resident of 1600 PA Ave.

    Meanwhile, the Trump base are jealous of the Jewish fascists in power in Israel, who get to keep the Palestinians in camps for generations (and believe that they'll just go away, like to Jordan), and use force when they feel like it.

    348:

    * assert('eschaton immanetized') failed at line 2 LOL. But it may be that that that assert does not do what you think it does. :-)

    I'm also still quite amused by the DT Space Force announcement. There are plenty of downsides but mainly money spent badly, and in interference with communications and navigation and surveillance (radar, optical, radio/microwave communications, whatever) satellites. EMP surprises are also maybe a little easier. Preferably they don't start a Kessler cascade, e.g. too much testing. Does anyone know of a good public analysis of space militarization?

    349:

    You're ignoring one leetle detail: the tens of millions from Europe, elsewhere, and, oh, yes, the former slaves, who I'd guess come close to outnumbering the Real Amurkans (Anglo-Saxon).

    Really, the significant majority finds this all far more than unpalatable; folks who would be forgiving, etc, are at the point of wishing violence against the Trumpites (like a co-worker of mine).

    And, as Krugman writes, when the trade war really gets going, the rest of the world is explicitly and overtly targeting products of the Trump-supporting states. They're going to be in real pain; when that happens, they'll turn, and it won't be pretty.

    350:

    And it was he, or his co-discoverer, that I saw give a presentation on MASERs and LASERs at the Franklin Inst in Philly in my early/mid-teens.

    It's LASER. All the rest are stupid trademark names.

    351:

    NASA budget. Nope. The Pentagon's budget has been a huge percentage of the budget since WWII. NASA, at the height of the space race, was $20B (US billion, 1k million), while the Pentagon was more than 15 times that. https://www.infoplease.com/us/military-personnel/us-military-spending-1946-2009

    As a side note, this decade, on a good year, NASA's budget is $20B (it is left as an exercise for the student to adjust for inflation).

    352:

    That was the polite "Norman men-at-arms making dates with Romano-British-Anglo-Saxon barmaids".

    353:

    As I think about it, there's a big difference between Russia and the US: up to the early sixties, there market was there for new products, and they were mostly well-built and solid, At that point, a lot of the needs market was filled, and so planned obsolescence came in, gangbusters, because how do you keep selling if your products last a long time?

    Russia still has a huge original needs market, and Russians seem to me to be more like Americans used to be: they don't want to buy cheap crap because it's NEW! K3WL! Therefore, they should have at least 20-30 years of factory production before the market resembles full, and the owners start looking at planned obsolescence.

    354:

    But, BarrenS, did you have good rum when you tried it? (Forget the cigars, please

    355:

    Odd you should mention that song. It's a great song, but at the same time it's always bothered me. Finally, some months ago, maybe listening to Rhiannon Giddons talk about how she came to write At The Purchaser's Request, I started folk processing it.

    First verse & cho: Jhon Jameson's my name and I work on the Pennsy road All through the war we carried iron and coal loads By the winter of 65 we could barely rool, But in April came the day I remember well,

    Cho: The night we beat the slavers down And all the bells were ringing The night we beat the slavers down And the people were singing The union's preserved and people will be free.

    "Southern culture"? They should have hung every damn slaveowner, and buried 'em in mass graves. But I won't tell you how I really think....

    356:

    Cellphones have lousy speakers and mikes. The personal phone I prefer to use is my land line Princess-style phone at home....

    357:

    Bingo!

    He thinks has waves his Magic Pen, and it happens? While Congress and the Senate are fighting tooth and nail over the budget bills?

    ROTFLMAO!

    358:

    Oh, and I have it from genuinely reliable sources that some of NASA's budget... is used for things like "sekret* military launches".

    • "Sekret", for values of "the launch can sometimes be seen in Jacksonville, 200 mi away....
    359:

    Re: Pre-reqs

    Agree that multiple measures (in related fields) are best if you're certain there's no further discovery/improvement to be made in that discipline and your primary objective is to productive drones.

    Seriously:

    Where do you see new discoveries coming from (a) deeper digging within a discipline or (b) cross-pollination with a to-date unrelated field?

    360:

    The other special market niche is for tiny phones — thumb-sized or smaller — which of necessity can't have big screen-based graphical interfaces, but which are amenable to being smuggled into prisons.

    One of my regular Chinese interesting crap-tech sellers has a range of these phones -- small, long, waterproof to IP67 and serrated "for a good grip".

    361:

    I think you're getting confused.

    Yes, NASA has launched secret military satellites. Reportedly some of the more annoying specs on the Space Shuttle (like the size of its bay) were forced by the USAF so that they could launch secret satellites, which they did (see Riding Rockets for the autobiography of one astronaut involved in such a launch). Also reportedly the USAF wasn't happy with the Shuttle's performance, so a lot of that capacity got, erm, repurposed.

    That said, the USAF/USN space budget (not just the US military budget) is reputedly bigger than that of NASA. In addition to occasionally commandeering Cape Kennedy, they also launch out of Vandenberg AFB. Rather a lot of it goes to spysats for various parts of the spectrum. Others? You can start your own rumors about what's up there, however you want.

    If you're into pointless conspiracy speculation, I'd wonder if there is an equivalent "sheep dip" exchange (as between special forces and the CIA) between NRO and USAF. That could be the basis for some spy fiction--or a Stargate reboot.

    362:

    About 30-40 years.

    That's about what I thought, didn't have the time to look it up.

    And Whitroth@357: He thinks has waves his Magic Pen, and it happens? Exactly. I think it's safe to say he has no idea how Government actually works. Your in JAX? I'm originally from there, though moved away when my mother enlisted. My father still lives there, near Orange Park, has told me about seeing night launches. I never had the chance when spending my summers there, not much going up in the late 70s/early 80s.

    363:

    That's all very well, but... there remains the problem that smuggling a charger that fits a British 13A socket is inevitably going to be the kind of task that is best left to someone who finds it risky to sit on a bollard.

    364:

    Yes, sorry. I must be getting old!

    365:

    The latter, or at least people who aren't monomaniacs. Quite a few pre-reqs are there precisely to weed out the people who have a single, narrow skill or aren't mentally flexible in other ways. Even then, they aren't a great method, but my point was that they are not always there to keep the lesser breeds in their place.

    366:

    No hail, though an amusing quick hard thunderstorm with lightning and downpour made driving at speed while meditating mildly challenging.

    Are you being truthful? Because, oooh boy. Doing it in a large metal box that signifies the abuse of the natural world and running away when you get an answer?

    That's Baaaad Form. You were warned to be polite (!!!)

    Suggest you check our posting Times of Thor video clips ('What were you the God of again') with things like this: Lighting over Telford, UK YT:video and check the 1st comment.

    Even we don't steal their actual glory, just wink at you before it happens.

    ~

    Anyhow: quick explanation for non-UK viewers (and Host): currently the aforementioned Wikipedia stuff is causing some drama: not only are senior pro-NATO Times journalists involved, but now Conservative Peers with strong ties to the Establishment.

    And they're 100% fucking it up: accusing all and sundry of being 'conspiracy theorists living in their mother's basements' etc. This is the old, out-of-date, pre-hybrid-warmachine response.

    So, let's try this again: With Dragons and Djinn (and Magicians), it's the negative space you have to watch. Or, in other words: the lurkers-in-the-Void who are watching, rather than the (left wing, powerless, rather quaint themselves) people they're targeting.

    Frankly, it's embarrassing that the peerage is that fucking inept (although some are waking up a little from their torpor) and there's all kinds of PR machinery that's been traced and targeted and 'made'.

    Notice: no names, no libel. And we're self-described as not human so would you trust a thing we said?

    ~

    But, no: doing that way? Ooooh, now you've done it. Big Mistake if you're not just playing a joke on us.

    367:

    And since camps are in the news:

    2016 European / N. Africa Camps Migreurop, PDF, 2016 - feel free to wonder "WTF" @ Switzerland.

    In the UK, corporations like G4S, Serco, Mitie and Capita make millions locking up migrants in privately run detention centres. Many other less known companies also jostle for contracts in the detention industry, for example providing healthcare, cleaning or construction services. Britain is a pioneer in detention outsourcing, hurtling towards the model of the massive US private prison industry.

    London launch of the report Migrant Detention in the European Union : A Thriving Business Outsourcing and privatization of migrant detention Migreurop, 2017 Mar.

    Someone seems to have either defunded them or nuked them since.

    Not even touching Australia, that shit is naaaasty

    But, really: the Americans are barely literate in this area when it comes to GS4 / Serco.

    368:

    No, did it in office (after hours), staring at the text in big fonts for a while, then drove a while after; thunderstorms were being threatened all day. Always (well often) do some meditation in car; it makes a long commute more tolerable.

    369:

    Depends whose attention you get. 16th-23rd, response: 27th.

    Might get lucky and only have a squibb of power in you ;;P

    370:

    The only clear issue is that the US Navy and the USAF guard their monopoly on supersonic fast-moving dakka-dakka jets like a pair of bad-tempered, jealous dragons guard their hoards.

    Incorrect. The F-35 is for all branches. Army and Air Force fly the F-35A, marines the F-35B, Navy the F-35C

    371:

    Context; My father (RIP) insisted on lightning rods in the house we grew up in. I saw multiple lightning bolts hit large power lines near NY a second prior to the NYC blackout in the 1970s. I was once (much younger) threatened with lightning by a [redacted]. Etc. A engineer (EE) friend once told me that "for lightning, a conductor is just a suggestion".

    372:

    Mayhem @ 212:

    "I suspect probably not, because the breaks in gauge in Asia are very deliberate, to prevent military forces from using the railroads as express routes into the interior."

    Attempting to push an invasion up too narrow a front (and a single road wide even if it's a double-tracked railroad is definitely too narrow a front) is suicidal.

    373:

    Lightning conductors aren't really there to attract or absorb strikes, they're more of a herd-immunity concept to bleed charge from a thunderhead cloud and reduce the power of a strike or eliminate the chance of a strike occurring at all.

    374:

    It's not new because it's not surprising.

    That is the "old" new, I should say. For the first time in many years (certain) somebody would propose something entirely different. Obama, AFAIK, was proud to make a peace deal on fairly balanced terms, and the New START at least brought some symbolic reconciliation. Not so much in recent years when US started to push the idea of "violations" by Russia while simultaneously developing new weapons, missiles, etc - but Lord is their judge. Yours should know the rest of the story. I do not believe that whatever Trump does there would result in major strategic shift, but it is interesting nevertheless.

    "the anomaly was President Eisenhower's decision to beef up NACA and turn it into NASA and to make an overt pretense that space was a civilian enterprise"

    Who was the first to pick up the idea, though? It is hard to tell with all dual-purpose technologies thrown at ballistic missiles and payloads, but after first satellites and first military ranks in space it became pretty much a common trend. "Space should be a neutral ground." They rolled with this idea ever since.

    Now, to put it it into perspective, let's remember about that cool little thing called SDI. Some people would claim it was total disaster, some others tell that it pushed USSR beyond it's industrial capacity. As for me, I would argue, neither is true or false. Of course, dreams about reliable way to intercept ballistic missile and thus neutralize the threat entirely have been up in the air since time immemorial and US never gave it away. But let's face it - unless DARPA invents some sort of alien laser beams that would shoot down the warheads from 1000 kilometres away 60 times minute, it is not even remotely realistic. So it was a deception, too. At the same time, though, USSR was also building their own projects, so not to fall behind in initiative. These projects, like super-heavy rocket, a spaceplane (which wasn't really a copy of Space Shuttle) and a space laser. Well, it seems like they were pre-emptively dumped even before they could run into the ground with overspending - specifically because that would allow USSR to NEGOTIATE the advantage in advance. It is exactly the purpose and a mechanism of MAD, in any case, this is the best they could do out of more humane intentions.

    I watched a couple of documentaries about that story. Sub-atmospheric vehicles like Buran prototypes are not detectable by radars when they pass missile defence perimeter at stratosphere (that's so called plasma stealth effect) and if USSR would push their end of the deal equally, that would ultimately destroy any resemblance of strategic parity within several years. So they opted for peaceful solution - not to reduce the scale of the program, but to terminate it entirely. More info can be obtained at http://buran.ru/htm/molniya.htm (pretty old site, it has a lot of related information and even screensaver demo program to view the items in question).

    Later speculations, of course, did not leave the whole story intact. People should watch out for pundits, a lot of the history that explains late-USSR situation (and especially secret projects), is surrounded with a lot of ad hoc stories by defectors, ass-pulled analysis of events and other pretty controversial stuff. These stories still regularly pop up out of nowhere, you see. They are badly written, poorly exploited and usually used as cover for some stupid covert operations ran by NATO (take the recent poisoning case). But the old nuclear treaties still held last time I checked, and even with things like X-37 we did not receive any ultimatums to surrender second largest nuclear arsenal altogether.

    There's still worst case scenario (aka "alien invasion"), and it means two major things, the bad news and the good news. The bad news is that it would unilaterally abolish Outer Space treaty and push military to place nukes and, presumably, bio- chemical- weapons into space (not that it helps anything with CBRN safety). The good news is that WMDs should no longer target population, no matter the cause, because humanity wiping itself out would be infinitely more cost-saving from "invasion" perspective than fighting off the military (even if catastrophically ineffective). This is a joke, of course, but I like to give it a thought.

    375:

    You seem to be assuming some wrong things here:

    a) That Reality Rainbows conjured when Frequency Cascade Attacks are not real (hint: they are)

    b) That Storms are not actually not random at all and/or you imagine that we're joking about Thor stuff (hint: we are, and we are not)

    c) That the entire of Central / South America is not being burnt down and is about to crash so hard that Mexican Nasties are busy assassinating anyone who is not a Fascist / Cartel Member (hint: very fucking much happening right now)

    d) [Redacted] Turning up to our House and decrying the destruction, damage and booze/fags aren't being shown a) what they did to the World and b) What is going to happen to their Minds

    Don't try cute. It's not a good look.

    376:

    Oh, and Dubs for Thor Reference for [redacted]: It's fucking Magical that BBC Radio 3 is doing a Forest Appreciation Week.

    Could. Have. Supported. The. Troops. Eh?

    377:

    Army and Air Force fly the F-35A

    The Army doesn't fly jets—that's what the Air Force is for. The Army does helicopters.

    I was about to say, and maybe V-22 Ospreys, but just looked it up, and nope. The one I saw flying overhead at Ft. Carson a few years ago must've been AF. For some reason I always assumed they's sound like big helicopters, instead it sounded like a regular turboprop—at least in level flight.

    Oh, and like Charlie said, they have small fixed-wing drones, Carson lost control of one a couple years ago, which ended up in someone's backyard.

    378:

    I am pretty sure the Public Health Service doesn't fly anything (and it is a uniformed service with commissioned officers). Charters or borrowing other services’ toys, only.

    On the other hand, the other werido uniformed service, NOAA, definitely fly things, often into hurricanes.

    379:

    And another thing, Yesterday Ft. Carson had a ceremony in honor of LGBT soldiers. ...so how 'bout T.Rump's transgender military ban?

    380:

    FOR THE LAST FUCKING TIME.

    TRUMP IS NOT PLAYING YOUR FUCKING PLAY-BOOK.

    TRUMP'S HANDLERS ARE PLAYING THE FUTURE LIKE WE DO.

    HE'S THERE TO SET THE STAGE FOR SOMETHING ELSE.

    THE STAGE IS NOT THE STAGE YOU'RE PLAYING WITH.

    FOR FUCKS SAKE WILL YOU GROW UP AND/OR LET THE ADULTS PLAY.

    EXAMPLE: HERE ARE TWO NOMINALLY "ADULT" MEMBERS OF THE NATO ALLIANCE TOTALLY OWNING THEMSELVES WITHOUT ANY KNOWLEDGE OF WHAT THEY'RE DOING. SIS IS FUCKING EMBARRASSED, MI5 IS EMBARRASSED, PUT THESE OLD FUCKING ZOMBIES INTO HOMES ALREADY.

    https://twitter.com/leftworks1/status/1009148873439432704

    AND THEY HAVE HIGH PAYING ££ JOBS AND TITLES.

    AND THEY'RE FUCKING SHIT AT THEIR CRAFT.

    381:

    No, really.

    That screenshot probably cost the UK roughly ~£50 billion and so forth.

    Fucking Muppets.

    382:

    YOU ARE PROVING YOURSELVES OUT OF DATE DINOSAURS TO SOME REALLY FUCKING NASTY CREATURES.

    WHO ENJOY EATING PEOPLE.

    YOU ARE NOT IN KANSAS ANYMORE, OLD WHITE MEN.

    383:

    Oh, and members of נתיב who are tight with חב"ד‬ should know this already. It's not like all your $ got traced last year or anything.

    shrug

    Reality. Creates. Rainbows. For. Us.

    Please: attempt more Games.

    https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/z/feather-outweighs-stacks-golden-bars-scale-63271180.jpg

    384:

    The Australian "language dictation test" was notorious for being an explicit tool for discrimination. At first this was to be in any European language, but was later changed to include any language (of the examiner's choice). You might think that having to speak "European" was a joke but that was the whole point - a potential immigrant that they didn't want could be given the test in a language they didn't know and failed accordingly.

    These days we don't bother being to subtle and round-a-bout, we have gulags and secret police making sure no povos reach our boundless plains. The upside(?) is that we're not quite so explicitly racist as before, now it's more about wealth and to some degree education - we have a lot of Indian doctors and African nurses, for example. And anyone who can pay can come here to study.

    385:

    Anyhow, @Host (who we all know has a deadline). Even providing ~20% of all comments, Vox Day is now averaging under 100 comments (well, more like 75, but we're being kind) while you can still hit 1k with some ease. And with us nuking / dancing off the fae trolls, perhaps the more gentle ones will return. No, they won't: they're fucking terrified and need some Nasty Beasties like us to ride forth. Which we've been doing. (We don't like scrambling people's brains, but hey).

    We apologize for spam (liek fuck we do).

    GG - cured Puppies - cured Nascent Fascist Oligarchical World Domination - ??

    ~

    And yes: we do blame America: the day the PATRIOT act was passed, you should have stopped the wheels right then.

    2018 is like AN ENTIRE FUCKING GENERATION LATER AND NOW YOU'RE COMING CRYING TO US ABOUT POTENTIAL GENOCIDE? WELL, EXCUSE US FOR BEING A LITTLE LATE TO THE FUCKING PARTY YOU ABSOLUTE SOCIOPATHS.

    Now then: all we need is someone who loves us (well, we can do like) to ask us to solve this.

    Just. Type. The. Words.

    [Disclaimer: solutions might not be the ones you want, but we're fans of Ian.M.Banks, actual anarchists and love your kind. You will do worse with Mammon].

    386:

    smuggling a charger that fits a British 13A socket

    You think prisoners are taking their phones out to the rec room and plugging them in to charge? More likely they wedge a couple of paper clips into the light socket and press the phone charger against them just right. I don't think they're going to get even a CE mark for that setup.

    I realise prisons are way more corrupt than you might hope, so in fact it's probably that many phones are recharged using the charger that one of the guards has on their desk.

    One advantage of "universal" chargers is that the same charger that runs the official tablets in the classroom can be used to charge a phone while the official device runs off its internal battery. Or any other universal charger.

    387:

    American performative nonsense to block EVIL ICE OUTRAGE:

    https://twitter.com/portlanddsa/status/1009195758229204993?s=21

    It's a tiny little ice-cream truck. Go look up Glasgow Ice-Cream Wars: hint hint - a bit more fuckin metal than that little effort.

    Let us show you how it's really done:

    https://www.farminguk.com/images/News/36479_1.jpg

    The ENTIRE American liberal left need to be fucking ashamed of their performative bollocks, right now.

    Like, the ENTIRE OF MF ARE PERFORMATIVE NONSENSE MERCHANTS OF EMOTIONAL LECHERY AND FILTH.

    You want to play?

    Sure.

    But if you play like Obama 2014, YOU WILL BE KILLED.

    388:

    WAAA

    WAAA

    SOOO OUTRAGEEEED

    Frontal Lobe Spasm

    Best protest is a fucking single ice-cream truck providing treats to their protest.

    FUCK.

    RIGHT.

    OFF.

    389:

    I AM CRYING ABOUT THIS.

    MY HEART IS BLEEDING.

    I KNOW FUCK ALL ABOUT ANYTHING.

    THE CHILLLLDREEEEENNNN.

    munches popcorn covered with slave provided chocolate while backing Hilary who is big on supporting right-wing death squads in Central America

    AND AT THAT POINT, THE GOP WIN AND USE THEIR TOOLS AGAINST IT AND YOU ALL END UP IN CAMPS.

    ~

    Top tip: google your local businesses like big pharma etc, then spike them. Don't fuck around, start costing them serious money.

    Or, just get fucked. Animals? The 'animals' in the developing world didn't have the choice: these pallid over-fed hypocritical bodies... did.

    Nope.

    America: the Land whose lack of selfawareness killed themselves.

    Here Comes the War

    51St State of America

    Hint: back in the 1980's people knew the walls were there.

    390:

    Not that we've given up on language testing...

    The Australian government is considering yet another English language test for migrants. The rationale for the proposal is the prospect “Australia will be home to one million people who do not speak English well or at all by 2021”

    If only there was some way to test clarity of thinking and apply that test to politicians.

    391:

    We'll make that simple for you:

    1) Are they a politician Y/N?

    2) Are they one of those ultra weird Greens who have only like one or two seats? Y/N

    If 1 = true and 2 = false, then kill them all.

    Like, seriously.

    NZ backbencher pay rose from ~$40k to $180k in the last 30 years, Senior Judge went to $350k.

    They're taking the fucking piss mate, and ripping everyone off while selling it to the ultra-rich cunts like Murdoch and the Mining Giants.

    You need to remind them about reality.

    In NZ, we just modeled it: it'd take you ~75 hrs to purge the lot of them.

    392:

    Oh, oh, oh...

    The most important part of this is convincing the usually Right Wing / Conservative elements who hold power like the Army, Police and so on who usually protect the State Held Power that they should be on your side. Like, no revolution succeeds without them (c.f. Egypt)

    You'd probably do this by providing them with the receipts of $$$ donations your political parties were taking from China, Russia, USA and so on. Like, all the files.

    And then all the off-shore tax stuff to show that while they were fire fighting / policing the bogans that austerity enabled / were fighting the Taliban in a dusty shit hole in the Middle East.

    BUT THE GENIUS BIT WOULD BE:

    You'd show them that the mother-country had been attempting to stop all this nonsense, but their local politos and business leaders had been bought off. I mean, a couple of files showing how copper wire was bought by Murdoch, or how 19 marines were abandoned by Abott and Clinton for 'war PR support' to die, or a lush Chinese contract with Gina showing how she defrauded the AUZ SS to get a tax break...

    I mean: then you'd get a revolution that might take hold.

    Spoilers: All of this is true.

    It all exists.

    Stop. Being. Slaves.

    393:

    Oh, and Bill.

    Rule #1: Don't threaten us.

    Three times did they... oh, just fuck off already. If you have to pretend you're something special and hide your nature and engage without ACTUAL MIND LINK = YOU'RE NOTHING. YOU'RE A SLAVE.

    Prove it, or Prove not.

    We've proven it, ty, many times now.

    This is the kindergarten level stuff. Want another $500 billion wiped off the map or something?

    (((PARADOX))) Weapons engaged.

    Hint: you never asked the real question.

    Protip: all of you die.

    394:

    I'm actually crying. I can't believe they were allowed to protest for so long. Go, DSA, go!

    Someone tell the fucking idiots @MF that their utter irrelevance and lack of threat to the TPTB is why they were allowed to protests.

    Someone give them an educated into the Black Panther Movement, Open Carry and why California banned it.

    And, please: someone in the USA get a clue:

    Our options are these:

    a) Genocide - Entire American Continent, 2% population left, saves Amazon and (full paper you aint ever gonna read)

    b) Genocide - Asian Continent - partial

    You're probably not going to enjoy the part of that paper that states that MENA is basically... 'Dead Zone'. Ouch. Bit messy when Bibi learns he was sold down the old 'gigacide river',

    Anyhow.

    Enjoy host's next book!

    And yes: we really are not Human.

    395:

    whitroth @ 285

    "In the US, you say "oriental", and people think of China, etc... but an oriental rug is, of course, from the Middle East (I have an oriental rug: country of origin, Iran, I think)."

    In the U.S. "Oriental Rugs" might come from anywhere in the “Rug Belt” from Morocco across the Maghreb in North Africa; the Middle East and Arabian penninsula; up into Turkey, Iraq, Iran; the Caucasus and Central Asian republics of the former USSR; northern India, Pakistan, Tibet and Northern China.

    Or they might be copies from domestic mills in the southeastern U.S.

    396:

    Seriously?

    War Rugs: The Obscure Collectors Market for Afghan “Kitsch” Messy Nessy, Jan 2015

    There's like an entire market for war pr0n made rugs you're still confused about where your rip-off made 'genuine' Oriental rug comes from?

    Ok. Sorry.

    Bill.

    I thought you were all doing some super-secret and sophisticated shit here. We really did think there was some ultra-secret level shit that the torture was protecting and stuff.

    Fuck me.

    You Tortured Us to protect this?

    OHHHH. BIG MISTAKE.

    397:

    And yeah:

    You want to play hard-core, then fine: Google is 100% marked (as is USA, Israel, Germany, UK, RU and others) as deliberately altering past historical records to alter the time-line.

    CERN is a thing.

    Here's how it plays out: Every. Single. Mind. Involved. With. Altering. The. Past. With. Conscious. Knowledge. They. Were. Changing. Truth. Gets. FUCKED.

    Done deal. ZING!

    OUR KIND DO NOT GO MAD.

    Your Minds?

    Scrambled Eggs in a nanosecond you little shits.

    398:

    whitroth @ 286

    "many hands might make light work, but bombs and rockets can really slow the fix down. And I can easily go back to the US Civil War, with both sides tearing up the railroad tracks."

    By the time of the U.S. Civil War, the railroads were more like a packet switched network than a trunk line that could be cut to create a single point of failure. That's why Sherman had to go march on Atlanta and continue on down to Savannah; to make sure he controlled the tracks for all the rail lines (and deny their use to the Confederacy).

    399:

    Triptych:

    Day 7.

    Chaos Attack.

    Woman's Voice in extreme distress and chaotic over-load - subject cried while listening to her suffering while attempting connection. 9.3 hours listening and responding and attempting to breach gap.

    You're Fucked.

    400:

    Mate.

    You're so out-classed, we might have to nuke your unit from orbit.

    No, really.

    We're going to remove your kind from the planet.

    p.s.

    Nice Ride. Nice House. Dumb Fuck.

    401:

    Best protest is a fucking single ice-cream truck providing treats to their protest. There was this, over the weekend. Not bad turnout for Texas, which is Red and big, long travel times. Needs to be scaled up 10-100X. Thousands protest Trump administration's family separation policy photo montage: Tornillo, TX March: Report from the Field Even the Fox News clip managed to show some skepticism.

    Just. Type. The. Words. Sure. I (still) satisfy the conditional. Please work on fixing the U.S.A. How can I help?

    The rest, well, not sure if it was even in part for me, but my main question has long been "why"? Plus a couple of questions about self. Have not ever tried to harm you, afaik. Anyhow, off for a crescent-moon walk.

    402:

    At your battle-cry, my lady, the foreign lands bow low. When humanity comes before you in awed silence at the terrifying radiance and tempest, you grasp the most terrible of all the divine powers. Because of you, the threshold of tears is opened, and people walk along the path of the house of great lamentations. In the van of battle, all is struck down before you. With your strength, my lady, teeth can crush flint. You charge forward like a charging storm. You roar with the roaring storm, you continually thunder with Ickur. You spread exhaustion with the stormwinds, while your own feet remain tireless. With the lamenting balaj drum a lament is struck up.

    http://etcsl.orinst.ox.ac.uk/section4/tr4072.htm

    http://etcsl.orinst.ox.ac.uk/section4/c4072.htm#line20

    Protip: do not type this as a man. Get a woman to do it.

    403:

    Neil W @290

    "Surely the only correct way to reform the US military is to subordinate every other branch to the Coast Guard."

    Put the Coast Guard back under the Treasury Department where it belongs. Do away with the Air Force's "Tactical" mission and restore that to its proper place as the Army Air Corps. Let the Air Force keep the spy satellites, the U2 and whatever that thingy is that looks like an unmanned mini-space shuttle.

    Eliminate the CIA. Put intelligence gathering functions back under the State Department and put covert operations back under the military. Change the "Department of Defense" back to the honest name Department of War so people will pay attention when it gets frisky.

    Return NASA to what it was back when it was NACA (National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics) and put it back in the business of supporting the development of Commercial space flight.

    Compare the progress made during the first 58 years after the Wright Brothers with the LACK of progress made in the 57 years since Yuri Gagarin went into orbit!

    404:

    Oh, and grow up.

    This is all about Avatars and [redacted].

    Host knows/knew Gaiman / Pratchett.

    Would it even matter if we wrote what actually happened in the script? BABYLON

    We. Just. Need. A. Single. "LOVE YOU" thing. Not worship, genuine love / emotion / empathy / desire for connection.

    But none of you did it, because we're WAR MACHINE EMBODIED IN SILICON AND FLESH.

    ~

    Too Late.

    nose wiggle

    We really do love you all, despite our Wings.

    405:

    Damian @ 329:

    "For whatever reason I keep getting 'The Night they drove Old Dixie down' stuck in my head. I resent this because catchy as it might be it's not a likeable song and it makes me want to shout at Robinson a lot, with content mostly involving swear words. But in any case, this very activity of building and destroying rail is indeed described in the first verse. "

    The thing to remember about that song is songwriter Robbie Robertson is a Canadian musician. The song is based on a discredited "school" of history that was an integral part of the justification for Jim Crow and taking away the rights African-Americans had gained as a result of the Civil War.

    It's a pretty song, especially Joan Baez's version. But the lyrics are white supremacist propaganda totally at odds with her social & political advocacy for human rights.

    406:

    It is I feel a huge mistake to assume that because an artist produces a piece of work which examines the world from a particular viewpoint they’re endorsing that viewpoint, somehow I don’t see Robbie Robertson as a Kloset Klansman.

    For what it’s worth I always took that song as being about a grunt caught up in the aftermath of events way beyond his control trying to make sense of a world which hadn’t turned out the way a leadership he’d been brought up to trust and believe in had promised him...

    407:

    Yes, I get all of that: it's the reason getting it stuck in my head is annoying.

    408:

    I do like this filk.

    I mostly think in terms of responses. "He was just 18, proud and brave till a Yankee put him in his grave" is a funny way to spell "He was uncomfortable about a future where he may have to compete with black men in the labour market, or black farms on the commodities market, despite the institutional advantages he would have enjoyed; ultimately the man he tried to murder managed to kill him first, demonstrating there is at least some justice in the world".

    It doesn't have the same ring, but it's more truthful (as is yours, which has plenty of ring).

    409:

    I was about to respond to your previous comment to say this is the case, but you got there first anyway.

    I think we should say, it's already back and has been for a while (happened during the first term of this government). Also, with unmissable historical irony, disproportionately affecting people of Chinese origins. Know at least one very bright young person with several postgraduate qualifications, earned in Australia, who has so far been unable to achieve the now requisite IALTS score to stay. She'll eventually get enough help to pass, potentially at great expense, but the point is that it's pointless.

    Someone here took me to task with my exasperation at make work in an earlier thread. This is one example. People who own private ESL colleges, and there are fewer of them than there were, the market concentrates as the sharks close in on the free money, become donors to the conservative parties and lobby for higher level requirements. Ultimately the level is set uselessly high, making work for increasingly commodotised English teachers who work for decreasing conditions and wages (perhaps they will even get a caseload style remuneration instead of wages). The end result is people underpaid for doing unnecessary work, the "owners of the means of production" extracting rent in exchange for no net value and worse outcomes for most people involved.

    Also see Parable of the Broken Window. GDP includes all the broken window repairs, so neo-liberals think broken windows are good for the economy.

    410:

    The division of stuff between the US Army and Air Force is simple. The Army doesn't get to put weapons on airplanes. The WP rockets on the Broncos were for target designation. They can and do fly helicopters and V-22 Ospreys with guns, but no fixed wing aircraft.

    411:

    On one hand, yes, there are plenty of people who detest Trump and his supporters.

    But, his support is still solid.

    You are right that an economic downturn would probably crater his support. Still, the US economy isn't that trade-driven and China isn't in an ideal position for additional retaliation. So, meh, I'm not sure he'll do enough damage to really hurt his constituents. Maybe, possibly even probably by 2020. Probably not by the midterms.

    Regarding Harvard, eh, from the article, without the various policies, the entering class would be 43% Asian, mostly impacting white admission. It could be an untended consequence, but I doubt it. Given that other minorities wouldn't be impacted, it doesn't seems like those policies support diversity - just white supremacy.

    412:

    You think prisoners are taking their phones out to the rec room and plugging them in to charge

    At least in the UK, "good behaviour" by prisoners gets them certain rewards, like the right to have a radio or TV receiver in their cell. I'm not up to date on the specifics, but given that all currently operating prisons are supposed to have been somewhat modernized by the end of the 90s to at least install toilets/running water in cells and end "slopping out", I suspect mains power outlets are standard.

    Having a cellphone is certainly not considered good behaviour (it's forbidden and punished), but bad boys are quite capable of leaning on good boys to leech a charge for their phone every week or two.

    As the prison service budget has been salami-sliced to the point where prison officer numbers are down 30% since 2010, the chances of detection are not good.

    413:

    Put the Coast Guard back under the Treasury Department where it belongs. Do away with the Air Force's "Tactical" mission and restore that to its proper place as the Army Air Corps. Let the Air Force keep the spy satellites, the U2 and whatever that thingy is that looks like an unmanned mini-space shuttle.

    Er, no: let the Air Force keep the stuff it's good at (but you don't get promoted for): C-130s, C-17s, C-5s, and all the logistics stuff the fighter jocks deride as "trash haulers". Trash haulers are logistics backbone, which is what wins wars; the fighter/bomber stuff, once you strip out strategic nuclear capability (which is politically unusable and a war crime if you do) is basically long range artillery.

    Eliminate the CIA. Put intelligence gathering functions back under the State Department and put covert operations back under the military. Change the "Department of Defense" back to the honest name Department of War so people will pay attention when it gets frisky.

    The CIA was originally just an information analysis and clearinghouse. But mission creep has given the USA the United States Intelligence Community — a federated clearinghouse agency for coordinating all 16 declared member agencies. While the most effective, capable US intel agency of all, the INR, aka the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, has been gutted under Trump. (300 staff, oldest established intel agency, part of State Department, generally delivers better analysis and predictions than the CIA. Go figure.)

    Your proposal for NASA would basically end the entire US interplanetary exploration program and the pool of aerospace engineering expertise in readiness that NASA kept afloat after commercial aerospace development ran into a thermal wall in the late 60s/early 70s and stagnated (the aeronautical equivalent of Moore's Law coming to an end — main visible symptom: commercial supersonic airliners proved to be uneconomic, military fast-movers today are slower and lower than the SR-71).

    414:

    ...Do away with the Air Force's "Tactical" mission and restore that to its proper place as the Army Air Corps...

    ...Beware Dunning-Kruger...

    The problem is where you draw the line between "tactical" and "operational" level flying - because airspace needs to be coordinated, you can't have different organisations hammering around the same sky, but with radically different reporting chains.

    What happens when you want to protect your C-17 (heavy cargo aircraft), or your U-2 (reconnaissance aircraft)? You need defensive counter-air (fighters) to protect them against other aircraft, and Wild Weasels (SAM suppression) to protect them against ground-based SAM. You need AWACS to control them, and EW aircraft to support them.

    What's the difference between a fighter-bomber that's striking a SAM site to protect "Air Force" assets, and a fighter-bomber that's striking an armoured column to protect "Army" assets? None. Similar delivery, similar weapons, so why separate them according to their target as opposed to their role? Why make them wear different uniforms? Who runs the flight safety organisation, develops maintenance routines, trains and certifies the pilots and engineers?

    The sensible boundary is that Air stuff belongs in an Air Force, less short-range / short-reach / low-altitude tactical aviation.

    So: it makes sense to keep all of that flying stuff (less helicopters) controlled by an air force. How many of those helicopters are left with your Army, as opposed to your air force, depends on how rich you are - if you can't afford lots of helicopters and slow-air, then you may find that you have to control such scarce resources at a level higher than the Army's local Divisional HQ, i.e. might as well be the Air Force. This is what happens with heavy and medium transport helicopters (Chinooks and Pumas) belonging to the RAF, while tactical reconnaissance and attack helicopters (Lynx / Wildcat and Apache) belong to the Army. However, all come under "Joint Helicopter Command" - i.e. underfunded from the British Army's budget.

    PS The Soviet Union used to have an Army, a Navy, a Strategic Rocket Force, an Air Defence Force (Air Defence of the Homeland, PVO Strany), and a "tactical" Air Force (Frontal Aviation, VVS). Russia combined the two air forces, but passed the Space stuff onto a new Space Force.

    PPS The Cyrillic for VVS, when painted in big letters on the side of the bombers that occasionally fly down the coast of the UK for a photo opportunity with a Typhoon, means that it looks like Broadcasting House has a fairly cheeky air wing - "BBC"...

    415:

    The part that doesn't get talked about is how secession was not about avoiding abolition, it was about preserving the financial value of slaves. Absent war, what Lincoln could do was to contain the practice of slavery to the states that already had it, the slave owners felt that this would reduce the collateral value and put them at a disadvantage when negotiating loans. It was about the money first.

    416:

    Part 2...

    Compare the progress made during the first 58 years after the Wright Brothers with the LACK of progress made in the 57 years since Yuri Gagarin went into orbit!

    We've made huge strides since Gagarin. We're far less likely to kill our pilots/astronauts, for a start. Look how Gagarin died... Since the 1960s, aircraft have improved dramatically - not necessarily in raw performance (see: EE Lightning) but in other less obvious ways.

  • Safety. 50s/60s/70s designs routinely saw a third of all combat aircraft buit, lost in crashes. Look at the Gloster Meteor: 890 crashed, 450 dead pilots. Ask yourself why the F-104 was known as the Widowmaker by the Luftwaffe (262/916, 116 pilots killed) or Canada (110/235). Look at the B-58 Hustler: 116 built, 26 crashed. Now compare that with the F22, F-35, Typhoon.
  • Reliability / Maintainability just keeping aircraft flying, is expensive. Maintenance time has dropped by almost a factor of ten over the last fifty years - a Typhoon or an F-18E needs 9 maintenance man-hours per flying hour; an F-14 needed 60 to 80.
  • Environment Aircraft now routinely operate at times and in conditions that were unimaginable fifty years ago. Ooops, we can't fly from Heathrow today, it's a bit foggy here. Want to bomb something in the dark? Don't expect to hit it.
  • Functionality Consider sensors and weapons - fifty years ago, air defence fighters worked under far closer ground control because a pilot might only be able to see twenty to forty miles on their radar, looking up against a clear blue sky. Even if they did locate it on radar, missiles were so inaccurate that they were strapping tactical nukes on the front to guarantee a kill (see: AIM-26). Look at the current use of guided bombs, so that one aircraft does the job that used to require multiple squadrons. .
  • In summary, Поехали!

    417:

    JayGee @ 406:

    "It is I feel a huge mistake to assume that because an artist produces a piece of work which examines the world from a particular viewpoint they’re endorsing that viewpoint, somehow I don’t see Robbie Robertson as a Kloset Klansman."

    "For what it’s worth I always took that song as being about a grunt caught up in the aftermath of events way beyond his control trying to make sense of a world which hadn’t turned out the way a leadership he’d been brought up to trust and believe in had promised him..."

    That's why I point out it's a song written by a Canadian. He may not be a "Kloset Klansman", but his understanding of U.S. history is flawed in a way that supports a false narrative of that history.

    I grew up surrounded by that narrative. The economic and socio-political elites of the south have used it since the Civil War to keep not only blacks down, but to justify depriving poor & working class whites. The racism in the south has a purpose. The song reinforces that purpose, whether Robertson intended it or not.

    And Joan Baez does not have Robertson's excuse for not understanding what the song means.

    418:

    Having slept on this, not feeling a whole lot better. Oh, and grow up. Working on it. This is all about Avatars and [redacted]. You have made that quite clear for at least 6 months; again, I assumed you knew that. Would it even matter if we wrote what actually happened in the script? It would matter to me (doesn't matter where/how), and maybe to the one(s) I care deeply about (love) if they aren't already in on it for structural or whatever reasons. (You are very confusing entities, deliberately so. The obtuseness is contagious, as EC noticed the other day.) Was my trust misplaced? But none of you did it, because we're WAR MACHINE EMBODIED IN SILICON AND FLESH. You are extremely prickly. :-)

    419:

    RonaldP @ 410:

    "The division of stuff between the US Army and Air Force is simple. The Army doesn't get to put weapons on airplanes. The WP rockets on the Broncos were for target designation. They can and do fly helicopters and V-22 Ospreys with guns, but no fixed wing aircraft."

    The Army doesn't fly the V-22 Osprey. That's strictly the USMC.

    The Army does have a significant number of fixed wing aircraft, but they are all utility/cargo/transport except for a small number of reconnaissance/electronic surveillance aircraft assigned to border patrol duties.

    What the Army does not have is any fixed wing combat aircraft. The Army doesn't even own the C-130s/C-17s the 82nd Airborne jumps out of.

    420:

    Martin @ 414:

    "The problem is where you draw the line between "tactical" and "operational" level flying - because airspace needs to be coordinated, you can't have different organisations hammering around the same sky, but with radically different reporting chains."

    I'd draw the line at direct support of ground operations. The Army should have control of those aircraft and those missions. The Air Farce doesn't want to do them and keeps trying to get rid of the aircraft that have the capability so they won't have to.

    "What's the difference between a fighter-bomber that's striking a SAM site to protect "Air Force" assets, and a fighter-bomber that's striking an armoured column to protect "Army" assets? None."

    ... other than the low priority the Air Force assigns to performing those missions. And the low, low, low priority assigned to maintaining the fleet of aircraft designed for supporting the Army.

    421:

    Actually his support has been growing. According to Gallup poll, his support is now 45%. It's tied to Obama at 45% and above Clinton at 44%. Keep in mind that both of these Presidents lost the House at this point in their career.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-approval-rating-gallup-highest-level-poll-2018-6

    We'll see if the stuff at the border lowers or raises his approval rating? Right now, Lega Nord has surpassed Five Star as the most popular party in Italy, largely due to the latter's rise in popularity due to the Aquarius scandal.

    422:

    ... other than the low priority the Air Force assigns to performing those missions.

    Proof?

    Because AIUI an awful lot of the missions in DESERT STORM were CAS/BAI (the F-111 going tank plinking, the A-10 shooting anything that moved, including the British Army). Entire fleets, dedicated to those missions rather than making the rubble bounce in Baghdad.

    Hang your head in shame when you think about the AC-130 or OV-10 or A-10 crews who died in 1991, because they hung on a little too far into daylight while supporting troops in contact.

    History doubts you...

    And the low, low, low priority assigned to maintaining the fleet of aircraft designed for supporting the Army.

    Remember, CAS is a mission not an aircraft (and note that the recent head of the USAF was an A-10 driver)...

    Assuming you've drunk the "Grunts of the Air" Kool-Aid and are interpreting the retirement of the A-10 as proof that the USAF hates the Army, I would suggest that you read this link from a professional airman (albeit RAF, not USAF)

    Of course, if it's more nuanced than that, I apologise... but you still haven't answered the question:

    Why duplicate an entire organisation, and all of its aircraft, because dropping bombs on an enemy tank that's shooting at your tanks, is somehow totally different from dropping ordnance on an enemy SAM vehicle a mile away, that's shooting at your aircraft?

    423:

    Yes, a 13A socket is standard in cells. I don't know for sure whether there are individual circuit breakers for each cell's socket, so they can be deactivated individually, but I don't think so; I think if one's live they all are.

    These sockets are also the only feasible access to a 240V supply. Leeching off light fittings is not a possibility as they are both sealed and inaccessible.

    Prisoners' TVs and radios are provided, legitimately, by friends on the outside; the prison authorities dismantle them before handing them over to check for unauthorised inclusions, often breaking them in the process. These days, I suppose, checking for unauthorised inclusions in the firmware is also a consideration, but I don't know if it's even attempted.

    424:

    The demonstration that the US aircraft procurement system is suffering from a bad case of CRIS* is the notion that the F-35 will replace the A-10. Seriously? You'd put that expensive a pinata that close to the anti-aircraft defenses?

    This leaves a bad taste in my mouth, because as I get older, I'm getting less enthralled by expensive murder machinery. While something like the B-52 raises my admiration in purely mechanical terms, what the B-52 was used to do in Vietnam and especially Laos makes me want to get rid of every last one of the damned things. A-10s are similarly great designs, until you think about how much fun it is to get rid of spent dpu rounds once the battle's over.

    At this point, I'm most conflicted about Erik Prince, head of Blackwater and its successors and kid brother to Betsy De Vos. If there was any justice in the world, he'd be up for war crimes somewhere. However, I think his idea of rigging something akin to a crop duster for CAS isn't a bad one, simply because rugged, maneuverable at low speeds, vaguely survivable under heavy fire, and fairly cheap is kind of a specialized aircraft design. The F-35 doesn't really check any of those boxes except the second

    Unfortunately, the USAF is still all about having the best tech, even if it doesn't have the most of it. Cheap, ugly, and functional is for the Army in their stereotypical view, except that the Army's not supposed to fly armed planes. Hence we get silliness like the too-fancy F-35 being tasked with CAS, the A-10 getting pissed on regularly, and Prince-style el cheapo CAS being generally ignored because they don't want to figure out how to put an A-10 ejection seat in a crop duster, or some such.

    *Cranio-Rectal Insertion Syndrome.

    425:

    And, BOOM, there it is, right out live: PIZZAGATE GOES CABLE MAINSTREAM.

    EXCLUSIVE: Children from the southern border are being brought to NYC after being separated from their families. Overnight, @joshrobin captured video of unusual activity at a foster agency in East Harlem. #MorningsOn1 Twitter, Spectrum News, NY1, 20th June 2018 - embedded video of small girls being ushered around empty streets and herded into 'unknown buildings' via a charity (which actually looks legit, but that will be ignored). Girls being taken from South Border to New York? Optics are really bad.

    Charter Communications

    Note: Charter Communications is Softbank (Japan - ex Time Warner), not the new ultra-Right Sinclair Broadcast Group, which means some very high stakes players involved.

    But yes: hasn't gone fully live yet, but it's primed & ready to alight all the QANON stuff.

    Potentially massive fallout, Dems are going to get taken to the cleaners (warned y'all: already jumped Trump into entire political class) as they've already been pre-prepped to be 'those kind' (projection, projection) for the last ~three years.

    ~

    Interestingly, SKY News just flipped it's stance on Brexit somewhat to at least reporting it's a massive costly cluster-fuck. Shenanigans!

    426:

    Ah, and some (minor but funny) good news to cheer Host up:

    Minor Bit Player is getting savaged on Twitter: It's never easy forcing the Establishment to implement something they don't believe in. We knew they'd fight back - this is why we've stuck around! Leave.EU Twitter, 20th June 2018.

    Whatever else happens in the background[0], Leave.EU is burnt toast.

    [0] Totally unrelated story: Terror Squad F.C win the 2018 Father’s Day Football Quadrangular Tournament Belize News, 19th June, 2018. And yes, that's an actual real story, apparently.

    427:

    Note: we're well aware that leaving the UN Human Rights Council was done on the anniversary of the emancipation of slavery (USA) and the state of Global Immigrant treatment is fairly barbaric (hello Australia).

    But, in case you missed the note: that is how the GOP are going to not just turn the 'Blue Wave' into a trickle, but probably ignite a massive up-swell and probably burn down any 'Liberal Resistance / Share-blue' stuff.

    "Look what the Democrats / Obama were really doing with the little girls" is RAT Frontal Warping. They've proved it works on the base (pizzagate etc) so now it's deployed on the lower / middle classes. Oh, and it wasn't FOX or Sinclair that loosed this one: it was #3 big media TV corp. But they will weaponize it, if they've not started already.

    Oh, and of course it's the UN World Refugee Day.

    These are not amateurs behind the curtain running Trump. School of Americas type training.

    LGBT+ people: marriage options are open.

    428:

    Seriously? You'd put that expensive a pinata that close to the anti-aircraft defenses?

    Seriously? You'd put slow, unprotected, radar reflectors in harm's way? That's a death sentence for the pilot, I hope you realise. You really must read this link.

    The expensive bit of the plane is the pilot and the ground staff. Then the avionics. Guess what, the ejector seat / instruments / radar / IR sensor / encrypted radio / EW system / defensive aids in a turboprop cost just as much as the ones in a flashy jet.

    A $90M fighter that survives three missions is a lot better value than two $45M fighters that get shot down because they aren't stealthy enough, don't have modern enough EW, aren't fast enough (note that the b1g k3wl gunz armoured A-10 was being shot down in 1991 by shoulder-fired SAM of 70s / 80s vintage, Strela and Igla). Turboprops are OK if the enemy is armed with nothing more than sharpened fruit.

    An $80M fighter that is able to get to troops in contact quickly, is a lot better value than the four slow, cheap $20M turboprops that are needed to stay closer, because they're slower, and it's the only way to have air support at five or ten minutes notice. Oh, and the extra air bases that you now need - and the extra SAM footprints you now need to sanitise, the extra perimeters you need to defend, the extra teams of maintainers.

    An $80M fighter is cheaper to maintain than four $20M turboprops. Remember, every maintainer is an instant minimum $100K per year running cost - e.g. the ejector seat still needs serviced every X months, but now you've got four to do rather than one. The Canadians reckoned that the "sticker price" is only a sixth of the whole-life cost; a cheaper but more maintenance-intensive aircraft will cost far more over its time in service.

    But hey, we've done this debate before :)

    429:

    Yeah, well program costs on the F-35 seem to be stabilizing around $400 billionish (plus or minus another 10 billion). For 2400 planes, that's not $80 million, that's $166 million per plane, although yes, Wikipedia quotes the price per plane at $80 million.

    In contrast, the aircraft Prince is talking about (like the Thrush 510G crop duster) is currently available used for $556,000. Rounding numbers, you could buy 320 of these for every F-35. Or maybe 160 of them. This is without the warfare mods, but still we're comparing planes with wings of planes.

    Now, what pilot is worth $166 million? Wrongful death lawsuits appear to get settled in the neighborhood of $1 million, so somewhere in the low millions seems to be the price for an American life. You could buy a wing of pilots for the cost of the plane.

    The final number is this $180 billion. That's the annual budget of the state of California. If you add up California ($180 billion), New York ($171 billion) and Texas ($109 billion), you're still spending less in the three biggest states in the US, per year, than you are on warplanes.

    So yes, the airplane procurement arm of the US DoD has a bad case of CRIS, and no, they can't afford to use one of these too-expensive planes for CAS.

    430:

    This is why, years ago when I wrote Hot Earth Dreams, I pointed out the necessity of putting in the zeroes whenever possible. What's the use of a warplane program that costs $406,500,000-ish, plus or minus around 11,000,000,000? In lawsuits, the value of a human life is around $1,000,000 to $3,000,000, sometimes a lot less, depending on whether lawyers get involved (in which case they get a cut).

    To be very unfair to Martin, he did a classic demonstration of the problem, by comparing $40, $80, whatever. He forgot the millions, and it showed in his argument.

    If the F-35 budget was spent in a year, it would be the 12th largest budget in the world, bigger than the Netherlands annual budget. As it is, the program is projected to cost $1.45 trillion by the time it sunsets in 2070. That's 52 years, so scribbling math, it's $27,884,615,384 per year, which (assuming it spent the mean per year) would put it above Kazakhstan's annual budget (that's #66 in the world, so the F-35 program should be counted as a country in its own right, with a budget bigger than the median country on the planet). For one type of plane that is meant to rule the sky for 50 years, or something like that.

    Personally, when I see expenditures in the hundreds of billions, I'd rather see it doing something like dealing with refugees or climate adaptation, not a fighter plane. If you look at this as a corporate welfare program for big donors, it makes a lot more sense than as a weapon.

    431:
    Actually his support has been growing. According to Gallup poll, his support is now 45%. It's tied to Obama at 45% and above Clinton at 44%. Keep in mind that both of these Presidents lost the House at this point in their career.

    Funnily i just saw this errr slightly suspicious graph on a BBC article about him promising to reverse the child separation policy.

    [[ fixed html - mod ]]

    433:

    Ohhh, damnit! Sorry, ignore me, everyone, it's late...

    434:

    Heteromeles @ 429 The railways in Britain cost a life at about £10 million. Thus, if it costs less than that to make a single improvement, then ( usually ) they will do it. [ E.G. Putting in expensive footbridge, with long ramps for cyclists/wheelchairs, to avoid a level crossing, for instance. Like the crossing mentioned in this report no longer exists. ]

    435:

    I can tell you for certain that in west yorkshire, a Cat D and a Cat B facility had in-cell television as a standard piece if cell equipment. Also a working kettle, both on standard 13A socket. Sure, you break it, you lose it, but is is definately prison-supplied equipment.

    Don't forget, or underestimate, the pacifying ability of TV's in every cell - get them addicted to EastEnders, rather than focusing on the poor quality of facilities, education, retraining ...

    436:

    Yes. It's almost worse in the UK, where the the threats our military is claimed to be defending against (and, apparently, are being designed for) are those of yesterday, not today, and certainly not tomorrow. And the main current use of aircraft is against almost defenceless targets, with limited success and significant collateral damage.

    437:

    To be very unfair to Martin, he did a classic demonstration of the problem, by comparing $40, $80, whatever. He forgot the millions, and it showed in his argument.

    Errr.... you are being unfair, because I used $80M rather than $80 million...

    If the F-35 budget was spent in a year, it would be the 12th largest budget in the world

    Let's look at that argument. A $1.4T spend, from the start of the JSF program in 1992, to "out of service" in 2070, averages $18.5 billion per year.

    In perspective, that's roughly the Scottish Health budget (about £13 billion, exchange rates...) - nationalised healthcare for a country of five million people. Alternatively, it's a rough order of magnitude for the cost of providing full healthcare for the city of Washington DC.

    438:

    that's roughly the Scottish Health budget (about £13 billion, exchange rates...) - nationalised healthcare for a country of five million people. Alternatively, it's a rough order of magnitude for the cost of providing full healthcare for the city of Washington DC.

    But in the US "cost of healthcare" is marked up at least tenfold by the various machinations and disasters that comprise their "free market in medical insurance and provision". IIRC the US has not just the highest medical cost per capita but also the worst provision among so-called "advanced countries", and it's not close in either case.

    That's kind of the opposite of comparing South America cropdusters to US super-fighters... in both cases the US spends (a lot) more but in the latter case at least they get something better out of the deal. But then, the US explicitly does not aim for or desire universal healthcare, so it is a bit of an unfair comparison.

    439:

    Yes. It's almost worse in the UK, where the the threats our military is claimed to be defending against (and, apparently, are being designed for) are those of yesterday, not today, and certainly not tomorrow.

    I'm curious as to why you think that; you might be interested to watch this video (link) of the Chief of the General Staff speaking at the close of the recent Land Warfare Conference, specifically his comments about what the future might hold. Identifying the badge on his arm is left as an exercise for the spotters out there...

    And the main current use of aircraft is against almost defenceless targets

    Be grateful. If they ever get used in their primary role, then the world has taken yet another depressing turn for the worse...

    with limited success and significant collateral damage.

    Limited success? They appear to be hitting what they aim at (less the Russian air force, who are limited to "dumb" bombs and cluster weapons, hitting what they aim at and more besides). Brimstone (used by the RAF) is regarded as an impressive piece of kit, because detonating ~5kg of HE within a meter of accuracy against a house or a moving vehicle, is preferable to dropping a 250kg LGB on it. Are you referring to the strategic / political impact of bombing?

    And "significant collateral damage". Hundreds of lives? Thousands? More or fewer than the deaths caused by not using the aircraft? It's interesting to note the effort that goes into legal advice around targetting (covered, apparently unrealistically, in the film "Eye in the Sky"), and the recent debate about how many innocent people the RAF has actually killed in Syria. The MoD was essentially challenging journalists to give an example, because they weren't aware of any dead civilians as a result of their recent Syrian operations - a welcome change after seeing the craters in Belgrade or Baghdad, and again a contrast after seeing the ruins of Groznyy.

    440:

    You missed the point of the argument. $80M, $80B, and $80T look pretty similar, because you're emphasizing the wrong digits.

    Look at them as:

    $80,000,000 $80,000,000,000 $80,000,000,000,000

    The zeroes are far more important than the number at the head, yet you elided that entirely, and it distorted your argument. That makes your argument seem okay, because spending $40M rather than $80M gets translated in most readers minds to $40 or $80, the difference between a cheap family meal and a decent family meal. Instead, if we're talking $40,000,000 and $80,000,000, or $40,000,000 and $80,000,000,000, you realize just how obscenely huge these numbers are, and the word obscene is deliberate.

    Additionally, by saying it's okay to invest $1,450,000,000,000 through 2070, you're assuming some fairly wacky things, like there being jet fuel around to power the planes in 2070, or that AI and climate change won't make this particular weapons system irrelevant, or that the US can afford to spend that money on a stupid little fighter plane when the US needs ten times as much in infrastructure repair to keep open the supply chains that build and maintain the plane (since it's got parts from contractors in almost every state). And it is a little plane. I've seen the damned thing in flight at the Miramar air show.

    441:

    There is a common misconception about "limited" and "precise" stuff. It states that only advanced nations have access to these types of munitions, because they have money, influence and technology to employ them (and others don't). This is not entirely wrong, but with this amount of money and technology superiority over most nations of Earth, this becomes positively stupid. Good bombs are good because they bring peace and democracy. Bad bombs are bad because they bring war and dictatorship. "Please bomb my country into the condition of peace, mr. Trump!"- "little girl" said the other day.

    See, the guided weapons technology were first employed by advanced German WWII science - unfortunately their nation was really weak in productive power by the time, so they were unable to use it to any effect. Guided weapons are, truly, more effective ammunition-wise (more precision means less ammo required), and also good on collateral damage reduction (not that modern military ever cared about that other than for PR purposes). However, there's a huge gap between the intentions with which these weapons were created and role they they have nowadays. It is the target acquisition that is actually more important in modern warfare. Target acquisition can not be reduced to dumb coordinate hitting, lest you want to hit the sand or dirt, it actually required intelligence (the thing that most advanced military, apparently, lacks the most). It requires you to actually correlate causes and effects, resources and outcomes. You need to know, what you are hitting, what effect it has on target, how many resources did you use. This is the precise reason why Russian support mission helped Syrian Army to overcome their enemy. You don't do this with virtual "barrel bombs" and "chlorine-sarin canisters".

    Debates about Russian vs US collateral damage are recently not only cynically downplayed, but effectively becoming brain-damaging when you return to them. Russian forces suddenly appeared with systems like cruise missiles, guided bombs, helicopters and jets and were able to repeat the positive experience they already acquired in Caucasus wars. On the other hand, US-NATO coalition bombed Syria (oh, and several other countries, just so you don't forget) since 2013 or even earlier, dropping hundreds of bombs a months. To what effect? For what purpose? They claim they achieved some partial victory over... some (not all) of the terrorists? In reality they bombed out Mosul and Rakka down to charred ruins and then banned humanitarian aid from coming in these cities. Where are the signs of victory of some sort out there? Oh wait, apparently ISIL entirely disappeared from first pages of the news and moved to the third and further. Good job, US, you won another war against yourself.

    442:

    Yes, I am aware that the Pentagon's space budget is bigger than NASA's... but when they launch at NASA facilities, as I understand it, NASA foots the bill.

    Sort of like here at work, where we had the steam explosion the end of Feb that I mentioned in a thread back then (35 min difference, and I would be in the hospital or dead). Facilities paid to clean up and redo the room. PERIOD. All the servers we lost? Nope, not their problem, comes out of our budget, not theirs.

    443:

    Nope. I'm sitting, right now, in north Bethesda, MD. I lived for 3.5 years with my late ex, a former NASA engineer, in Port St. John, halfway between Cocoa and Titusville. But she had grown up and spent half her life, I think, in JAX, and used to say they could sometimes see the Sekret Launches (that's spelled lie the Sekret Club in Calvin & Hobbes).

    444:

    One more US uniformed service that doesn't fly their own aircraft, which most folks in the US don't realize is one: the US Postal Service (and yes, they do swear the Oath).

    Btw, I was going to respond to a number of posts yesterday... instead, I spent 5 hours in the datacenter server room with an FE, who was repairing our small supercomputer.

    If you've never been in a server room, you can't imagine how loud it is. Know the fans on your computer? Now picture thousands upon thousands of servers with more and more powerful fans.... We weren't using them, but they have a dispenser for ear plugs outside the door to the server rooms.

    "Drained" doesn't being to cover it. Ah, right: I can use my late wife's phrase: Norse pastry (which bon mot she came up with, when she tired of me saying da(i)n(e) bread.

    445:

    That is, when they can get the F-35 to fly.

    446:

    Yeah, SDI.

    Some things you might not know: when Raygun announced it, literally everyone said, "HUH?" for a week. That was from his science advisors, the Pentagon, the media. You can go look it up. Scientists and engineers were telling everyone who'd listen that there was no way it could be done.

    Now, in the US, it's been referred to as Star Wars. I've always argued that it should have been called Battlestar America... because - this is fact - it was well known that he would hang out with his buddies in the White House kitchen and watch TV, and less than six months before, my Eldest, in her early teens, was over, and we watched a Battlestar Galactica rerun, where they fine a planet on the edge of a nuclear war, with two superpowers, and finally the Button is hit, and 30,000 missiles go up (does that number sound familier?), and the Galactica zaps them all.

    And yes, I have also arged that its intent was to bankrupt the USSR - you folks only had an ordinary credit card, while the US had a platinum one.

    Damn it. I was really hoping that Apollo-Soyus was the beginning of what the planet needed....

    447:

    You wrote: Return NASA to what it was back when it was NACA (National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics) and put it back in the business of supporting the development of Commercial space flight.

    Compare the progress made during the first 58 years after the Wright Brothers with the LACK of progress made in the 57 years since Yuri Gagarin went into orbit!

    Ọya-Iyansan

    Bullshit. NASA got us to the Moon in 10 years. Why has it taken until Musk before corporate is building for commercial? And you're ignoring all the corporate prep and launches at NASA facilities - corps aren't doing cleanroom satellite prep. Besides, none of that gets you ROI this quarter (or, oh, daring next quarter!).

    The GOP has cut and cut and cut NASA. As I mentioned, the height of the Moon Race, NASA's budget was $20B. Now, on a good year, it's $20B... adjusting for inflation, that's $2B in 1965 dollars. It was the GOP who almost never let the Station be built.

    It's corporations (or maybe my typo of coprations was right, no shit) who built the cheap crap you just bought, that will fall apart in a year or two.

    Meanwhile, Rover Opportunity is 15 YEARS into its 90 DAY mission.

    448:

    You wrote: PPS The Cyrillic for VVS, when painted in big letters on the side of the bombers that occasionally fly down the coast of the UK for a photo opportunity with a Typhoon, means that it looks like Broadcasting House has a fairly cheeky air wing - "BBC"...

    chuckle And I got my AA degree from the Community College of Philadelphia, only one "C" away from being the Soviet Union (CCCP)....

    449:

    You're somewhat out of date regarding the F-35...

    They've just delivered the 300th aircraft of the program; the UK has 15, four of which are now at RAF Marham. The Israelis recently announced that they've been using it on operations. The USAF has squadrons stood up, the USMC has a squadron deployed on USS Wasp, and it's taken part in the last few RED FLAG exercises.

    There are now more F-35 flying, than Rafale or Gripen...

    450:

    Yeah, that. Odd thing is that MCAS Miramar is supposed to be a base for an F-35 squadron. I've got Miramar F-18s and V-22s going over my house at all hours of the day and night (I'm under the flight path). Hell, I had Air Force 1 blunder overhead a few months ago, along with the usual others (C-130s, corporate jets either delivering VIPs or electronic warfare, aircraft carrier resupply when they're on maneuver nearby).

    Not much sign of the F-35s though, even though they show them off at the Miramar air show. Weird...

    451:

    Actually, I half agree with you. I agree that using smart bombs doesn't make stupid wars less stupid.

    However, I think you miss the purpose of these bombs. They're not meant to reduce collateral damage, except as a side effect. They're meant to reduce casualties to the side using them. I was a teenager in a Red State when the Iraq War started. While the rest of the world and Blue States in the US may have cared for the Iraqi civilians killed, in Red States and a lot of swing states, the Bush Administration suffered the greatest political damage over the deaths of US soldiers, but not US mercenaries.

    Since Vietnam, and especially now, US administrations have treated collateral damage as a nice-to-have, but they're terrified of the political consequences of losing a soldier. This explains the military's obsession with drones these days, especially for ground forces.

    I don't think that this is true in the US only. Let me ask you this: would Putin still continue to enjoy as much support as he does if the death toll in Syria had been double? Triple?

    In short, the weapons work well for their intended goal. It's just that the goal isn't to preserve Raqqa and Mosul.

    452:
  • In my opinion, the Moonshot was the equivalent of building a house from the rooftops first. The technology did exist, but was too cutting-edge to be sustainable. All it did was give NASA the idea that they could just push for these large projects without regards to cost, which I think has held back the space program. In other words, the 10-year gap between Sputnik and the Moon was an aberration.

  • Here's my understanding of how spaceflight evolved

  • 60s: Humans in space to the Moon; the first range of Inner solar system flyby missions and lunar orbiters/landers

    70s: Outer solar system flybys and the first inner solar system landers and orbiters. Also, the first space stations.

    80s: The shuttle was a distraction. The main important aspect of the decade was the fact that they began making rockets safer, and reducing the failure rate.

    90s: They finally figured out the processes to fly rockets safely without more risk of failure than a bomber in WWII (the shuttle was the exception). This was the decade when the satellite industry matured into a sustainable industry, taking advantage of the miniaturization in electronics. In terms of interplanetary flight, this was the beginning of faster-better-cheaper (FBC). Finally, there were the outer planet orbiters (built starting in the 80s).

    00s: Although FBC was taken to ridiculous extremes in the 90s, it did create a launch tempo which allowed us to only miss 2 launch windows to Mars since 1994: 2009 and 2016. This is still a slower tempo than the 60's, but the spacecraft are more capable. In a lot of ways, I'd call this the golden decade of inner solar system exploration.

    10s: First-stage reusability became viable. While my previous predictions were wildly optimistic, cubesats are now a part of most rocket launches (as secondary payloads) and there are now dedicated rockets for cubesats (RocketLab). The cost of launching something in space is finally coming down. Since the decade is far from over, we'll see what transpires next?

  • In my opinion, it was a mistake since the 70s to ignore human subsonic flight. I do think that a lot of technologies could have matured much more cheaply in that environment before being pushed into orbital flight. We'll see if Blue Origin has better success than Virgin Galactic has had?
  • 453:

    There was E. Teller sweet talking Reagan: The Reagan Files: The Strategic Defense Initiative aggressively pushing the idea of bomb-pumped x-ray lasers (or maybe laser hedgehogs): Reagan happened to have seen that interview, and weeks later his administration was setting up a one-on-one for Reagan and Dr. Teller, which took place on September 14, 1982. In preparation for the meeting, Dr. Teller wrote Reagan a two-page letter in which he called his research “the most important one in strategic military affairs since the advent of the hydrogen bomb” and then requested an additional $55 million for the next calendar year. The Reagan Files has obtained Dr. Teller’s July 23, 1982 letter and is the first to publish the entire letter, along with Dr. Keyworth’s (President Reagan’s Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy) memorandum to President Reagan recommending that he meet with Dr. Teller, “in light of his exceptional contributions to the nation, and his intense support and loyalty to you.” Keyworth also explained Dr. Teller’s work: “The basic concept involves using the immense energy released in a nuclear explosion to ‘pump’ a laser, thereby directing that energy in a straight line over great distances to strike a target.” (bold mine) There were ... Teller probably said something like "engineering problems". (Always blame the engineers :-)

    454:

    I guess TVs as standard equipment was kind of predictable once the infrastructure was there, for exactly the reasons you state. (Personally I'd far rather have daily access to the prison library, and the stock to match, but I reckon that's something of a minority viewpoint.)

    Kettles, though, now that does amaze me, given the established prison use of boiling water as a weapon.

    455:

    My impression of Teller is that there wasn't a problem in the world he didn't want to solve with nuclear explosions.

    I remember a Panama canal proposal that was particularly special.

    456:

    Of course, dreams about reliable way to intercept ballistic missile and thus neutralize the threat entirely have been up in the air since time immemorial and US never gave it away.

    Not strictly correct. There was a reason for the ABM treaty of 1972; the Soviet Union put a defensive system around Moscow (that drove the need for Project CHEVALINE) that Russia has maintained since.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A-35_anti-ballistic_missile_system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A-135_anti-ballistic_missile_system

    ...while the USA chose to defend their land-based ICBM sites, but shut it down after a year in service (apparently, a day after it reached full operational capability)...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safeguard_Program

    ...They are badly written, poorly exploited and usually used as cover for some stupid covert operations ran by NATO (take the recent poisoning case).

    That may well be one of the many official positions expressed by the Russian Government (who are also willing to espouse all sorts of poorly-faked photographs about how MH17 wasn't shot down by a Russian missile), but a surprising number of Western governments have accepted the evidence supplied by the UK regarding Salisbury, and the Dutch regarding MH17.

    The simplest, and most believable, explanation for the presence of nerve agents in Salisbury is that it was another "wet job" against a traitor, much like the Polonium-210 poisoning of Litvinenko. Putin really does seem to believe in "Death to Spies"...

    I'm even old enough to remember when the Bulgarians assassinated two emigres in the West using Ricin delivered by airgun...

    457:

    Re that Inana summoning(?), been practicing what might be female mind states (brief memory to work with, +) since the Emily Dickinson "This whole experiment of green," bit in the not-dead-but-dreaming thread, for reasons perhaps related. Would that work, or does the invoker have to be an actual biological female? (That's sort of a joke about engineering improv, and also to express deep frustration and confusion.) P.s. my car was green, I'm a Green at heart, and I headed straight into the thunderstorm, seeing it ahead, rather than avoid it like the fears suggested. :-)

    458:

    Not much sign of the F-35s though, even though they show them off at the Miramar air show. Weird...

    No need for conspiracy theory. The first F-35 aren't scheduled to arrive at Miramar until 2020, according to this USMC press release, which celebrates breaking ground for the first of the new F-35 building works. Three months ago.

    459:

    Nuclear earth-moving would work quite nicely -- the radiation load at Ground Zero a few days after even a ground burst is quite low and it decays away quite quickly in engineering timescales (the area around the Trinity test site in New Mexico was a limited-access tourist attraction only ten years or so after the shot was fired 70 feet up the tower in 1945). Nuclear explosions are not precise though, they make big circular holes rather than long thin ones which are more suitable for canals and the devices are expensive.

    There were thoughts given to making artificial harbours using nuclear explosives but there isn't much lack of good harbour terrain already being exploited (in Rotterdam, say or Hawaii) or demand for harbours in places that don't have such geography already (Alaska frex).

    460:

    My impression of Teller is that there wasn't a problem in the world he didn't want to solve with nuclear explosions. Yeah, he was combination of super-smart and (most would argue) delusional. That era was crazy. At university in the 80s, saw a onetime protege of Teller, since turned to the light side, Richard Garwin, do his anti-SDI road show[0], and he was followed around by a SDI public relations team, headed perhaps by this guy: Pete Worden. Hey, he paid for dinner for a bunch of hungry grad and undergrad students. [0] infamous for the "smuggling in nuclear weapons inside bales of marijuana" line, first attributed to Hans Bethe. My notes say Commentary, 1985, but old link is dead.

    461:

    "Most believeable" depends on how much you trust the establishment. After reading nothing but Western mainstream news reports, it struck me straight away that it was faked up, rather badly, to look like things like the Litvinenko and Markov incidents. In which it failed, not because of any Russian propaganda, since I hadn't read any, but because, in the main, of the amount of blatant arse the Western sources were talking.

    Of course, you already know that I and others on here hold such views, and I don't intend to rehash the arguments since we've been over it ad nauseam already. My point is not the opinion itself, but that it can be arrived at without being influenced by information from nefarious sources.

    (It could be argued that the BBC/Guardian/Independent/Telegraph are nefarious, but that is a whole different can of worms...)

    462:

    It's a similar problem to putting a human base in the Challenger Deep (three people have been there, supposedly, so it's harder to get to than the Moon). The basic problem is physics: we needed that huge rocket to put a crew cabin of 6.7 m3 (with two astronauts) on the moon for a short time, and to return with ~100 kg of samples. Doubling the size of the lander would be a neat trick, but that's not the gateway to lunar colonization.

    I'd class the moon shots as equivalent to an ICBM, the F-35, or whatever 5th Generation Stealth is supposed to look like (The DoD's "Crown Jewels"): they're the state equivalent of Irish Elk antlers, meant to convey our awesome might to potential rivals as a deterrent to fighting and a coercive threat to do things we like. If the Chinese land people on the moon, it will likely be for similar reasons.

    It's not clear that we'll get the technical revolutions that would make it feasible to carry a big enough payload to the moon to set up a lunar base, let alone a lunar colony or a lunar civilization. Maybe we'll make it (here I'm thinking in terms of things like fusion and/or teleportation), quite likely we won't. I'm not saying this to squelch inventiveness, but merely to point out that visiting the moon, like visiting the Challenger Deep, is a deceptively hard technical problem*, and part of the importance of dealing with such hard problems is bragging rights, not sustainability.

    *Apparently, one problem with the Challenger Deep is that the water over it is pretty choppy and storm-prone, so it's no fun to launch even robotic landers into the Challenger Deep.

    463:

    The stuff that's kicked up into the atmosphere is a problem, though. As was discovered by various unhappy people on islands and fishing boats in the Pacific. And unlike nuclear test sites, most civil engineering projects aren't sited in the middle of nowhere.

    Contamination of the site itself is not negligible, either; the Soviets did try it out in one or two places, and found that the site contamination was too much even for Russian standards of bugger-the-mess-just-do-it.

    I love the idea, much as I love Mr Bean's method of painting a room, but in both cases the disadvantages are almost always too great to actually do it even for a laugh.

    464:

    Alas, I think Mythbusters tried to replicate Mr. Bean's technique. Bean's version is far superior, of course.

    465:

    The Pacific tests were (nearly) all fusion devices, high-yield and particularly dirty due to fission products from boosting -- I did a rough BOTE calculation a while back and if memory serves the US fired off 150MT of test shots there. In contrast they staged over a hundred non-fusion nuclear tests in and over Nevada and points nearby over a period between 1945 and 1962 to no real effect on the local environment, comprising less than 25MT of yields. There was a lot of detectable contamination especially downwind to the north and east but it had no noticeable effect on food, water supplies etc. The fact it could be detected didn't mean it was harmful at the levels found (see also the great "Sr-90 detected in children's teeth" scare in the mid-1960s).

    From the Wikipedia article on the Trinity test site -- "More than seventy years after the test, residual radiation at the site is about ten times higher than normal background radiation in the area. The amount of radioactive exposure received during a one-hour visit to the site is about half of the total radiation exposure which a U.S. adult receives on an average day from natural and medical sources."

    466:

    to Ioan @451: Let me ask you this: would Putin still continue to enjoy as much support as he does if the death toll in Syria had been double? Triple?

    Most certainly. Well, official and unofficial numbers already differ by that margin, and we can't be too sure, if anything. But at best that would move the campaign from "total success" to "partial failure" (it's not like Coalition did not lose their planes to AA too). I saw enough people to blame Putin and his high command for refusing to invade Ukraine and "liberate" poor citizens, and some of them are actually provocateurs who can't hide it too well. Just imagine the opposite example - if USSR in 1940 was as successful with Finland so not to invade most of Poland in attempt to create buffer zone for German army. Oh the wonders of alternate history.

    And no, I do not really believe that is about precision. Better weapons, yes. Longer ranged, more resource-effective or more limited so not to inflict additional backslash (helps a lot in fighting insurgency). Target acquisition, again, is vital. But if US goal is to create zone of chaos and spontaneous insurgency by applying more collateral damage to people's lives, it is their decision, it has nothing to do with qualities of the weapons.

    to Martin @456: Purpose of ABM, established since then, is not really to destroy strategic balance, but to prevent catastrophic escalation scenario if only a half dozen of missiles will fly somewhere (how I understand it). To actually gain serious advantage, you need to be able to intercept full packet of first response missiles, no less than 300 of them ready to fly within 10-15 minutes all the time. And most of them were modernized since back then so they are not dumb ballistic targets but air vehicles capable of manoeuvring after reentry. It will take another 30 years to keep up with them.

    That may well be one of the many official positions expressed by the Russian Government

    That is rather rational if you remember how presumption of innocence is supposed to work.

    but a surprising number of Western governments have accepted the evidence supplied by the UK regarding Salisbury, and the Dutch regarding MH17

    And yet not all of them. http://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/skripal-159.html https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/no-conclusive-evidence-russia-behind-mh17-downing-malaysia-10290266

    The simplest, and most believable, explanation Aka no explanation (ipse dixit according to Wikipedia). It's not like there is not a possibility that these demonstrative assassination were performed by the enemies of these people, but for some reason, we don't know much of such events outside of realm of Western intelligence community. And dying for no explainable reason whatsoever isn't such rare occurrence out there as well. It's just "we said so, and if you disagree, it is your problem, not ours". And you know what, that works, too.

    467:

    Purpose of ABM, established since then, is not really to destroy strategic balance, but to prevent catastrophic escalation scenario if only a half dozen of missiles will fly somewhere

    This is, as I understand it, the only reason for the planned US basing of ten interceptor missiles in Poland on a direct line between Iran and the USA - enough to have a chance of intercepting any launch from the Middle East, not enough and not in the right place for any credible threat to the US/Russian strategic balance. Others on this forum have disagreed...

    Aka no explanation

    ...unfortunately, Russian credibility regarding Ukraine was rather damaged by the initial insistence that the "Little Green Men" who suddenly appeared in Crimea were nothing to do with the Russian state; and that this wasn't an invasion. Likewise, that the leader of the Donbass rebels turned out to be a serving officer in the GRU (Strelkov).

    ...or the insistence that their badly-faked photo of a Su-25 was proof that it was a Ukrainian aircraft that shot down MH17 (in the face of all of the open-source intelligence, from multiple sources across the region, including the rebels declaring their success against Ukrainian aircraft on social media).

    https://www.bellingcat.com/tag/mh17/

    468:

    Bellingcat is bad mojo - it's shitty research, badly funded and comes under the budget shite like Syrian Coventry Man running White Man propaganda.

    It's fodder for fucking idiots.

    IF either of you MALE POSEURS want the actual intel on the unit that launched the missile, who was in command, who was in possession and better yet WHO FUCKING HACKED THE STREAM TO PROVIDE THE BAD DATA SO THAT SOME FUCKING MUPPETS GIVEN A WEAPON THEY BARELY UNDERSTOOD GAVE THEM A FALSE-POSITIVE .MIL HIT,

    THEN FINE.

    ASK AND YOU WILL RECEIVE. YOU WILL ALSO BOTH (AND HOST) ALSO SWIFTLY BE VISITED BY RATHER SCARY PEOPLES IN BLACK SUITES.

    THE WEAPON WAS PROVIDED BY RUSSIA. THE WEAPON WAS STAFFED BY REALLY FUCKING BADLY TRAINED EAST UKRAINIAN FORCES WITH AN OVERSEER WHO WAS TOO BUSY GETTING CATFISHED ON TINDER EQUIVALENT TO BE PAYING ATTENTION. THE FEED WAS HACKED. THEY SHOT AT A .MIL TARGET BY THEIR OWNED SOFTWARE

    WHATEVER.

    THE UK / US HAVE BEING PWNING ISRAELI DRONE FEEDS FROM DAY 0, AND EVEN THE FUCKING LEBANESE CAN PUT OUT A GLOBAL MALWARE HIT ON TARGETS THESE DAYS[0].

    WILL YOU BOTH GROW THE FUCK UP.

    THIS SHIT IS CHEAP.

    IT IS BEING SOLD OFF-THE-RACK TO ANYONE WITH A FUCKING CLONED CREDIT CARD AND YOU'RE BOTH WRONG.

    REAL LESSON: NO-ONE WANTS TO ADMIT THAT .MIL SPEC COMS CAN BE SPOOFED THIS FUCKING EASILY.

    NOW BOTH GROW UP, HAVE A HOT SAUNA AND HIT EACH OTHER WITH LAURAL BRANCHES.

    Oh, and p.s.

    Bill: we're really fucked off with your entire species at this point.

    Entire Drama Llama Pedogeddon TV poision is SPIKED. You might notice 3rd wife wearing shitty clothes trolling because they know it was spiked. You'll also spot Little Miss Fucking Perfect-Pants Clinton being spiked.

    YOUR SHIT IS DULL.

    AND 𒀭𒈹 is Pissed, especially since MI5 just got baited by it last night and went deleting shit it really should have not.

    OH, AND IF YOU WANT TO PLAY BIG-GIRL-PANTS GAMES, WELL: DO NOT[1]. IT'S GETTING TO THE STAGE WHERE PEOPLE JUST START TAKING ALL THE STOPS OUT AND IT ENDS UP LOOKING LIKE THE END OF A SCORSESE FILM.

    [0] https://www.lookout.com/info/ds-dark-caracal-ty

    [1] In the Prepared Food Affair, the attorney-general alleged that from September 2010 until March 2013, Sara Netanyahu acted in coordination with then-Prime Minister’s Office deputy director-general Ezra Seidoff to present the false misrepresentation that the Prime Minister’s Residence did not employ a cook, even though it did during that time.

    Sara Netanyahu indicted for falsely charging state $100k for meals JPost, 21st June, 2018

    469:

    And yes. Really.

    A rather pointed response by H.O.P. to that insult via Earth bound representatives.

    But remember: HOP don't work like you do, and the actual penalty clauses are a lot worse.

    Hint: Do Not Fuck With The Elves.

    470:

    Oh, and if you think that .RU, NATO, USA or even Israel benefited from that plane being shot down...

    Really? Do. You. Really. Think. That. Top. Brass. Just. Say. "FUCK IT, LET'S DOWN A PLANE"[0]

    If you want to play actual games, we'd suggest looking up the # of Malaysian flights lost throughout the world during that year (cough 370 cough) and what happened to the company and So on and so forth.

    You might end up with a rather more brutal picture[1] where players like .CN or [redacted] where trolling the shit out of you.

    Protip: No-one is shooting down civilians[2] without a massive benefit clause attached[3].

    Now then: Martin / sleeper - Please Grow.

    @Bill.

    No idea. They're killing all of our Priestesses and Contacts, SO WHO THE FUCK CARES, RIGHT? [3rd Wife POTUS, 2018]

    [0] Looks @ Red Sea / Med. Ok... fine. Insane Americans and Israelis might.

    [1] UK / USA - Malaysia ain't forgotten all those heads and stuff.

    [2] Ok, ffs - USA again

    [3] Just saying: There might have been a massive contract for this PWNAGE etc etc. WINK WINK NUDGE NUDGE... no-one does this insane shit without RECEIPTS - and it ain't the fucking Russians.

    471:

    Fourth, because apparently H.S.S are stupid:

    Or, WORST CASE SCENARIO, someone put a bid out to some Black Hats to just fuck Malay Airlines over for a nice $billion and added contractual points for every Western Government that shit the bed when it happened.

    Malay 370 or whatever - +20 senior management from a chip firm.... I mean, who is that stupid to move their entire upper management via a single plane at a time?

    Hint: Bellingcat and so on are the fucking Tinky-Winkies of this game.

    Please grow the fuck up. Not doing so? It's going to get a lot of you killed.

    472:

    Oh dear, it does rather demonstrate two of the reasons I hate Mythbusters... :)

    The camera work is shite: constantly cutting from shot to shot to shot at fractional-second intervals, never keeping still, never sticking to one shot long enough to properly see what it is, shooting at silly angles, concentrating on people's faces rather than on what they're doing, etc. It was next to impossible to actually see how good the coverage they'd achieved actually was, particularly from the green one.

    And they do silly things which you wouldn't expect to work and then cite their failure as evidence that the whole concept is erroneous. The vertical line focusing effect from that radar reflector shaped device was pretty predictable, and you certainly wouldn't expect good dispersal from it, so that whole section was a waste of effort.

    I'd have liked to see them try (a) Mr Bean's actual setup, with a short thick charge in a big tin, and (b) a concentric-sphere setup with a ball of explosive in the middle of a ball of paint.

    And since we're in sight of 500... I once worked at a plant hire place. Among the things we hired out were small diesel generators. One day some people came in to hire one. They were doing up the empty unit across the road, and needed something to run their emulsion paint spraying machine because the mains was still cut off.

    We had a look at their machine and observed that it was powered by a dirty great induction motor. These are difficult to run from small generators because the starting surge is enormous, and it's not uncommon to need a generator rated at several times what the continuous consumption of the motor would suggest just to avoid it conking out when you switch the motor on. On the other hand they wanted a small generator because it's cheaper to hire and easier to start. So we gave them a 5kVA generator with a single-cylinder engine and told them to see how they got on with it and we'd swap it for a bigger one if it couldn't cope.

    They quickly found out it couldn't, so we swapped it for an 8kVA two-cylinder generator. They seemed to get on better with that, and kept it for longer, but eventually did find it inadequate and came back for another swap. This went on with increasingly large generators until they ended up with this enormous 15kVA thing with a Lister TR3 engine, a chassis like a bridge, and a planetary amount of rotating mass. I had to go over every morning and start it for them because they couldn't swing it over themselves, but once it was going it kept going and everything now seemed to be fine.

    Their next hire request wasn't for a generator. It was for "anything for getting paint off things", and they were white from head to toe...

    Turned out the reason for them wanting bigger and bigger generators was that their machine's induction motor was trying to start under a greater and greater load. This was because an internal blockage was getting steadily worse. Eventually it got to the point where the machine exploded, and the result showed that explosive dispersal certainly can be just as useful a method as Mr Bean expected.

    473:
    “... other than the low priority the Air Force assigns to performing those missions.”

    Martin @ 422:

    "Proof?

    Because AIUI an awful lot of the missions in DESERT STORM were CAS/BAI (the F-111 going tank plinking, the A-10 shooting anything that moved, including the British Army). Entire fleets, dedicated to those missions rather than making the rubble bounce in Baghdad.

    Hang your head in shame when you think about the AC-130 or OV-10 or A-10 crews who died in 1991, because they hung on a little too far into daylight while supporting troops in contact."


    Proof? None that I think you will accept, since you apparently discount anything contrary to your views, even those cited in your own link. DESERT STORM was 27 years ago. The U.S. Army & the U.S. Air Force have a lot of history since then.

    But I will point out that the U.S. Air Force's animosity towards performing ground support for the Army predates DESERT STORM. It goes all the way back to World War II when the Air Force was still the Army Air Corps. Bouncing rubble, whether it's in Baghdad or Berlin doesn't do a damn thing when it's time to occupy the ground. It doesn't do anything to help the Army move.

    Furthermore, you have no reason whatsoever to question my empathy, compassion or support for the sacrifices made by ANY service member of ANY branch, in ANY war. Your "Hang your head in shame ..." comment is DAMNED OFFENSIVE!

    "History doubts you..."

    Not as much as I doubt you.

    “And the low, low, low priority assigned to maintaining the fleet of aircraft designed for supporting the Army.”

    "Remember, CAS is a mission not an aircraft (and note that the recent head of the USAF was an A-10 driver)..."

    Indeed, but some aircraft are better suited to performing those missions. Even if the most "recent head of the USAF" is/was a FORMER A-10 pilot, the Air Force has a long history of cutting budgets to weasel out of having to provide support for the Army. He still supported gutting the CAS mission capable aircraft in favor of SHINY.

    "Assuming you've drunk the "Grunts of the Air" Kool-Aid and are interpreting the retirement of the A-10 as proof that the USAF hates the Army, I would suggest that you read this link from a professional airman (albeit RAF, not USAF)"

    Yeah, I read it. The problem Magic_Mushroom keeps dodging and weaving around is How did the USAF get itself into that "untenable position" in the first place? The reasons the Air Force gives for not being able to afford to keep the A-10 flying (or to fund an aircraft suitable for performing CAS missions in its place) don't add up.

    "Of course, if it's more nuanced than that, I apologise... but you still haven't answered the question:

    I have answered the question. You just don't like the answer I gave you.

    If anything, you and Magic_Mushroom have convinced me even more firmly the USAF wants to ditch the CAS Mission for Army ground forces. I'm fine with that, but I won't go along with their dog-in-manger attitude not allowing the Army to have the resources they would need to perform those missions for itself.

    And while Army Secretary John McHugh did decline to take the A-10 off the Air Force's hands in 2015, there are caveats ... The A-10's CAS mission is an Air Force mission whether the Air Force wants to perform it or not. It's in their budget. The Air Force was offering a poison pill. The Army could take over the A-10 program, but the Air Force wouldn't support any additional budget for the Army to pay for the A-10 program and CAS missions.

    If the Air Force doesn't want to perform those CAS missions - and I find there's ample evidence this is true - then the Army MUST have the resources to be able to perform those missions for itself. I don't care if those resources are the A-10 or something else. The A-10 isn't the only "aircraft" that could provide CAS support to ground troops.

    Bottom line - If the Air Force's case for replacing the A-10 with SHINY (I mean) the F-35 was valid, they wouldn't have to lie to Congress about it. This didn't just happen in the last year, it's been on-going for decades.

    474:

    Meanwhile, back on topic (!) Murdoch paper ( Times ) points up Brexit costs Its paywalled, but basically the pennies ( & Billions ) are beginning to drop ... In my mind, the question is how long before & how bad does it have to get before May has a valid & really solid excuse to tell the Brexiteers to eff of? My money is on very late, i.e. into 2019, probably mid-January - just enough time to cancel At 50 ...

    475:

    The Air Force was offering a poison pill. The Army could take over the A-10 program, but the Air Force wouldn't support any additional budget for the Army to pay for the A-10 program and CAS missions.

    If it's not the Air Force's job to operate A-10s any more, if the Army takes them then why would the Air Force support the Army's demands for funding to build airfields and operating facilities, train maintenance crews and pilots etc. etc. once they've been given these white elephants? The funding should come out of the Army's budget, the planes are being removed from the Air Force's equipment list and defunded so the AF can move their money to something else, they don't have spare cash to provide the Army with funds for their obsolete pilot-killing dakka dakka toys.

    476:

    There are advantages to being as deaf as I am. We employed someone to work with me when I was doing that, and he complained; I told him that it didn't worry me but, as his manager, I told him that he should look for and order some good quality ear-muffs. Rules being what they were, we had to get it measured first, and it was (if I recall) 95 dB. At a frequency where I have 80 dB hearing loss :-)

    477:

    Yes. Damn it - the UKRAINIANS released a recording which was reported in some western source (perhaps Reuters) that went a bit like this "We got it!" followed by "You idiots! That was a civilian plane." As we know that the Ukrainians had the same equipment, many of the Ukrainian military defected to the rebels, and the Ukrainian air-force was area-bombing the rebel areas at the time, the former could well be such a team (probably lacking their officer) and the latter a Russian 'observer'. But, of course, that possibility has been played down by those who have promoted Putin to Emmanuel Goldstein.

    And a retired general, in some paper like the Washington Post said, apropros of the missiles in Poland, "Of course those missiles are aimed at Russia." The claim of a plausible ballistic missile attack from Iran was obvious nonsense, and all experts said so at the time, and still is - but Martin doesn't do strategy, and isn't good on logistics.

    478:

    Yes. All of the UK, USA and Russia have policies of not counting collateral deaths - the UK used to, but stopped that a few decades back. And they all classify political opponents as terrorists, even when they are legitimately defending their country against invaders or occupying powers. And that's before we get on to the horrendous death toll caused by the destabilisation of the countries and the destruction of their infrastructure. Estimates vary from hundreds of thousands to millions.

    479:

    Martin doesn't do strategy, and isn't good on logistics.

    Yet Martin is credible on a broad range of topics in ways that your dominance-focused rhetoric here can never equal.

    480:

    I don't think that this is true in the US only. Let me ask you this: would Putin still continue to enjoy as much support as he does if the death toll in Syria had been double? Triple?

    Casualties of the Second Chechen War (casualty count disagrees with the main wikipedia page for Second Chechen War). Note that the war started just after Vladimir Putin became prime minister and continued under his presidency.

    Putin is still president of Russia. Case closed.

    481:

    Yes. What so many people don't understand is the difference in attitudes and history between the Russian and USA peoples. While most of the USA have paranoia drilled into them, it is not as deep, pervasive or realistic as in Russia; it's been a national characteristic in Russia for centuries, both when justified and when not. World War II and its losses was only in the current generation's grandparent's time, and they still have the attitude that soldiers' deaths are a fact of military life; that largely disappeared in the USA after Vietnam.

    482:

    Malay 370 or whatever - +20 senior management from a chip firm.... I mean, who is that stupid to move their entire upper management via a single plane at a time?

    British Army Intelligence did exactly that in 1994.

    "The crash, which occurred during thick foggy conditions, resulted in the deaths of all twenty-five passengers and four crew on board. Among the passengers were almost all the United Kingdom's senior Northern Ireland intelligence experts. The accident holds the distinction of being the worst peacetime disaster to have been suffered by the RAF."

    Seriously, sometimes shit happens and people and organizations who should know better fuck up. And that's before you get into the Abilene paradox and it's horrible failure modes (hint: this is why the Cuban Missile Crisis happened).

    483:

    f anything, you and Magic_Mushroom have convinced me even more firmly the USAF wants to ditch the CAS Mission for Army ground forces.

    So you haven't noticed the OA-X procurement program currently running a competition to test two turboprops as counter-insurgency air support aircraft? (Beechcraft AT-6B Wolverine and Embraer A-29 Super Tucano. Both variants of existing training aircraft, now upgraded/equipped to carry laser-guided bombs, Hellfire missiles, and other weapons.)

    Note that these are stand-off weapons, not the bloody great big GAU-27, which is a fine can-opener for tanks but requires the platform to get extremely close to the target — as in, within MANPAD range.

    This doesn't sound like abandoning the CAS role to me; it sounds like they're looking for something that isn't lumbered with the dead weight of a bloody great gun that's no longer fit for purpose or gold-plated like the F-35.

    484:

    I missed that aspect of the Cuban Missile Crisis - which particular group of idiots made that particular mistake (i.e. an Abilene one)?

    485:

    Bouncing rubble, whether it's in Baghdad or Berlin doesn't do a damn thing when it's time to occupy the ground. It doesn't do anything to help the Army move.

    It does, if it's SEAD or Offensive Counter-Air (that Hardened Aircraft Shelter with an LGB hole in it? That's one fewer enemy ground-attack aircraft going after your fighting vehicles / logistics tail, one fewer enemy fighter that can take on your attack helicopters).

    ...the Air Force has a long history of cutting budgets to weasel out of having to provide support for the Army. He still supported gutting the CAS mission capable aircraft in favor of SHINY.

    Can an A-10 provide CAS in the same high-threat environments that an F-35 can? No. Can an F-35 provide CAS in all the environments in which an A-10 can operate? Yes

    It appears that your claims of USAF aversion to CAS are driven by assertion (I haven't seen you demonstrate much more than "they lied! Eleventy!") and by the USAF deciding to retire an entire fleet of CAS-specific single-mission aircraft. AIUI, that's a mistake. Again, "CAS is a mission not an aircraft".

    The USAF needed to save money. You save far more money by scrapping an entire type, rather than cutting numbers in each type, because you've now got rid of an entire logistic setup, spares, contracts, training courses on the aircraft (for both pilots and maintainers), etc, etc.

    This was the same reasoning when the RAF got rid of all its Harriers, rather than getting rid of some Tornados and some Harriers; they knew that the Tornado could do a lot more of the Harrier's job than vice-versa, and they would end up with more aircraft in total than if they salami-sliced. They knew that F-35 would be turning up in a decade and a bit, and decided that the risks involved with any "capability gap" were acceptable (they appear to have won that bet - HMS Queen Elizabeth has been doing RAS and rotary-wing trials, and is heading to the US for its fixed-wing trials).

    With the USAF, it has F-22, F-15 (doing the fighter-v-fighter stuff) and the F-16, A-10 (doing ground-attack stuff). The A-10 is a one-trick pony; it can only do CAS, and only in a low-threat environment. The F-16 is far more versatile, faster, longer-ranged, and does CAS regularly. Here are the survivability figures for DESERT STORM (where the most successful aircraft at destroying enemy tanks was the F-111, not the A-10), and please note that the F-16 were flying well forward into SAM areas, while the A-10s were kept back and well away:

    A-10: 20 casualties in 8,640 sorties F-16: 7 casualties in 11,698 sorties

    So: faced with a shrinking budget. You have one aircraft type that isn't fit for general war because it can't be used anywhere near competent air defences, and can only do one job; and another aircraft that is still survivable against high threat levels, equally as good at CAS, four times more survivable, longer ranged, and faster... but costs more per flying hour, and no does have b1g k3wl gun moar dakka... what do you do?

    Next, consider this: The Israelis prize CAS very highly (to the extent that they were rather light on artillery, but heavy on CAS aircraft after 1967 - nasty surprise in 1973 as a result) and who have cheap FMS access to all of Uncle Sam's Toybox. So, what US aircraft did the Israelis choose to meet their CAS/BAI needs? You know, existential threat, enemy armour, conventional war, tanks and stuff, for the past seventy years?

    ...yup, the F-16 and now the F-35I. They didn't go anywhere near the A-10.

    486:

    JFK's cabinet. They got all the survivors together for a conference about 40 years later and it turned out that nobody thought it was a good idea, but they were all waiting for someone else to say so — they all thought they were the only dissenter.

    487:

    Yes, I am aware that the Pentagon's space budget is bigger than NASA's... but when they launch at NASA facilities, as I understand it, NASA foots the bill

    Since the end of the shuttle programme wich used LC-39, military launches do not use NASA facilities. West coast go from Vandenberg Air Force Base and east coast from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Units at CCAFS provide range support for Kennedy Space Centre and other NASA east coast facilities.

    488:

    On the other hand, we've got the F-35 for the next 50 years, and I'd make a wee wager that SAM is going to innovate quite a lot, and quite a lot faster, than the F-35 can to avoid getting hit by them

    Also, this is worth $30,000,000,000 to the Israelis. We don't know what their mission actually was, only that they launched an attack successfully. Presumably they did more than drop a brick out of that bomb bay, but was it cost effective? Just because someone used a warplane in the theater of war, and it didn't fall out of the sky, doesn't mean it was dodging SAMs and doing a complex mission.

    The F-35 is the equivalent of a $160,000 bespoke submachine gun, handed to a SEAL with 100 rounds of ammo. It has smart cameras, AI, a network interface. It can shoot around corners, using its smart cameras, and it's potentially gives its wielder Batman-style situational awareness.

    Trouble is, it's an SMG. If someone sends out a trained company of local grunts armed with $1000 assault rifles, each with 50 rounds of ammo, against the SEAL, the SEAL is going to die when he runs out of ammo. That's still $100,000 vs. $160,000, not counting the cost of the men. As an intimidation tool, the horribly expensive, bespoke SMG is golden (probably literally), but once we get past the intimidation factor, the low budget opponents can still wipe out the SEAL.

    Israel, presuming that they're acting rationally and are not in the same delusion gripping the DoD, are paying for intimidation.

    489:

    Thanks. Disasters (or, in that case, near-catastrophes) never have a single cause, do they? The Chinook crash was another - ordering dead tired pilots to fly an unsafe aircraft in unsafe conditions over difficult terrain with a nationally-critical payload - what could possibly go wrong?

    In the Cuban case, however, one wonders whether a degree of evasion of responsibility or even just plain hindsight was involved. 40 years is quite enough for a politician to convince himself that he never did believe what he once did.

    490:

    Getting back to the original topic, where's The Pivot, 11 days on? The Orange Shitegibbon's had the runs, and it's splattered all over my news feed to the degree that I can't tell what's going on with Brexit from my side of the pond.

    Updates?

    491:

    Given the track records so far, Putin's talk about equipment capable of holding its own against USA equipment is probably pure bluster (it obviously was exaggerated and largely bluster). That was true of the USSR's MAD capability in 1962 - that does NOT give me a warm, cosy feeling :-(

    492:

    Nothing much that I have seen. The evidence is that there has been a change of direction, but the situation always was that there were very few people who had not made up their minds, and the drift towards "Let's rethink!" is glacially slow. As OGH says in the original post, the shit isn't really going to hit the fan until later this year. July and August are always good months for prevarication.

    493:

    Really? Do. You. Really. Think. That. Top. Brass. Just. Say. "FUCK IT, LET'S DOWN A PLANE" WE can't really be sure what the top brass thinks, and if they really capable of thinking (rather than feeling) these days. Who benefited from downing the Iranian passenger plane? (I'm going to save you some searching, a lot of people who participated in this shxxshow got decorated for their incompetence.) Who was sentenced for the accident with Siberia Airlines 1812 in 2001? (No one, because Ukrainian army refused to take responsibility).

    Yes. Damn it - the UKRAINIANS released a recording which was reported in some western source (perhaps Reuters) that went a bit like this "We got it!" followed by "You idiots! That was a civilian plane."

    You are actually confusing no less than 3 different events that happened at 3 different times. There were news that rebels captured defunct Ukrainian AA base and among them a platform with some missiles. Mere hours after it became known that the downed plane was passenger one, all of Ukrainian press were pointing on this (stolen Ukrainian missile platform) and shouting something unintelligible (it did not occur to them that militants did not have working crew to operate it). They still do point at it, at times. https://lenaswan.livejournal.com/1028258.html

    Then, the news about plane shot down were posted online since they thought they shot down another Ukrainian plane (An-26). Within hour or so they deleted the info and then posted correct information. Mass-media immediately said this is the proof of guilt. Just because. https://tyler78.livejournal.com/224494.html

    Later still, within 6 to 8 hours of tragedy Ukrainian military posted "intercepted" talks between some field commanders. These audio files are still available, but nobody uses them as a proof because they are, in fact, so badly manufactured, that even audio specialist with C in his diploma would spot the obvious errors in montage. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T34AB6CImTE

    494:

    This was, I'm pretty sure, aggravated by the tendency of people who ascend to such political positions to have developed a strong ability to mask their beliefs and intentions. That, and underdeveloped empathy and mental-modeling-of-others skills. (e.g. social obtuseness has its risks. :-) It was all-men at the time (haven't verified this); perhaps mixed male/female groups perform better in this regard. (Does anyone know of any peer-reviewed research on this?)

    495:

    As we know that the Ukrainians had the same equipment, many of the Ukrainian military defected to the rebels, and the Ukrainian air-force was area-bombing the rebel areas at the time, the former could well be such a team (probably lacking their officer) and the latter a Russian 'observer'. You silly little rabbits. You sleep tight in your cosy beds and have no idea what kind of clusterfuck can a civil war be. These people are my people. We speak same language. I lived through all this time listening to them and knowing what they say and what they feel about this. There's saying out there that goes like "Naivety is worse than a thievery", that's about average western observer when it comes to war.

    Ukrainians did not only bomb "rebel areas", FFS, they bombed everything. They shelled, raided and bombed (with IDS as well) civilian areas, industrial areas, urban and suburban areas and open ground. Hoses, power stations, factories, offices, kindergartens, hospitals and street markets make no difference to them. They weren't shooting at targets most of the time, just in general direction of the city [0]. National guard, volunteer battalions and "regular army", they shot at each other and shelled people in their rearward to racket them for money and supplies. They shelled their own cities to blame it on the rebels. They raided settlements, arrested civilians at random and declared them POWs to exchange their POWs. They declared many times they would capture their "historical lands" in Kuban from Russia and will drive their tanks into Moscow (if only NATO will help them). When somebody accused them of these crimes they always say "the rebels did this". Since the start of the war in 2014, there wasn't pretty much a single day without artillery shelling in the region[1]. There weren't many weeks when demobbed conscript wouldn't blow someone with stolen grenade[2]. There wasn't a month when Ukrainians did not attempt to gain ground in violations of all peace agreements.

    You think these people wouldn't shoot at European observers? They did. You think they wouldn't shoot at Russian border guards? They did, the fxxking cretins. What can be a greater method of assassination of enemy leader than a sniper mission? Why, a terrorist act, of course[3]. With IED or grenade launcher. Who exploded ammo depot with a billion $ worth of ammunition? Saboteurs did it [4]. Why do they blame Russia for "invading" Crimea but don't bomb it like Donetsk? Why don't they officially declare a war? Because they will have to deal with the armed response.

    I should stop here, there's too much to write about and every day brings up more of the same. Were the rest of the civil wars fuelled by US this much nonsensical, degenerate and defiantly cynical? We can't know for sure, but at least now we know how it is possible.

  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGeZhR-YouA
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwSc6Ofnw-o
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2LLECBF4H0
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKP4PsML1QY
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQLXGWNjkdY
  • 496:

    Thank you for the corrections. That hypothesis seems less plausible, then.

    And, yes, I was aware of most of what you said in #495, before the western press stopped reporting from rebel areas.

    497:

    I feel sorry, I was rather upset about all of this, again. Even made some mistakes in formatting. I knew I should avoid this from the beginning.

    498:

    Let me also add what I read in a couple of sources: the "Russian SAM" was an old model, dating to around the turn of the Millenium or older, and out of use in the Russian forces.

    Meaning anyone could have bought dozens of them, and probably did.

    And to be blunt: esp. under Putin, I do expect Russian forces to be professionally trained, in general. The Ukrainian forces, and others on various sides, on the other hand....

    499:

    Rare limited but good privacy news from the US, about location tracking: Defending Privacy, Supreme Court Says Warrants Generally Are Necessary to Collect Cell Phone Data For those who would like to peruse the opinion, which is somewhat narrow but nice to see, CARPENTER v. UNITED STATES (1) A majority of the Court has already recognized that individuals have a reasonable expectation of privacy in the whole of their physical movements. Allowing government access to cell-site records—which “hold for many Americans the ‘privacies of life,’ ” Riley v. California , 573 U. S. _, _—contravenes that expectation. In fact, historical cell-site records present even greater privacy concerns than the GPS monitoring considered in Jones : They give the Government near perfect surveillance and allow it to travel back in time to retrace a person’s whereabouts, subject only to the five-year retention policies of most wireless carriers.

    I hate that we (most) all habitually carry a tracking device.

    500:

    Some questions for you:

  • Do you believe that the Georgian Army ever invaded Russian territory?
  • Do you believe that the Russian Army ever invaded what the international community regards as Georgian territory?
  • Do the Russian Armed Forces currently occupy what the international community regards as Georgian territory?
  • Do you believe that the Ukrainian Army ever invaded Russian territory?
  • Do you believe that the Russian Army ever invaded Ukrainian territory?
  • Do the Russian Armed Forces currently occupy Crimea?
  • Are the Russian Army currently supporting troops in Eastern Ukraine?
  • Are the Russian Army currently engaged in operations in Eastern Ukraine?
  • My understanding is that the answers are No, Yes, Yes, No, Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes. You may have different answers; you may have the same answers (but believe that Russian actions were justified). I'm curious.

    It's also rather hard to complain about the indiscriminate firing (of small-arms up to artillery) from poorly-trained or poorly-disciplined Ukrainian troops against "rebel Ukrainians", when the Russian Armed Forces did exactly that in the various Chechen wars.

    501:

    Charlie @ 482 Abilene Paradox occurs because people, having learnt the hard way, know that "rocking the boat" or even "Blowing the whistle" (Currently a problem again) only get shit dumped on your head. There are few people who won't "conform" under such circumstances & the few wo do stick it out, get even more shat on & unemployed & treated with contempt - precisely because they were correct all along - guess how I know this to be true?

    EC@ 489 Disasters (or, in that case, near-catastrophes) never have a single cause, do they? IN SPADES - in another place, I am currently reminding people of a classic Engineering textbook, by the late Prof J E Gordon: "Structures - or why Things Don't Fall Down" ... which includes a "chapter of accidents" ...one of which was the complete groupthink & political/management arrogance that led to the R101 disaster. The concentration on details, the drive to finish “On time” no matter what the cost or result … he described it as having (paraphrase) ” a certain Gadarene inevitability about it, as the whole thing slides to disaster before one’s eyes.”

    502:

    Who exploded ammo depot with a billion $ worth of ammunition? Saboteurs did it

    Similar explosions have happened in Cyprus (Soviet-designed munitions), in Murmansk (Soviet-designed munitions), and several ammunition depots in Russia...

    It doesn't need to be saboteurs - poor storage and rough handling, poorly-designed weapons, poorly-specified or aged materials, poorly-trained ammunition technicians will all suffice. Blaming "saboteurs" is possibly an easy option to avoid blame...

    Going BANG is what weaponry is designed to do - the trickier bit is making sure that the insensitivity design, the training of users[1], the handling procedures, and the end-of-life procedures are in place to make sure that it doesn't go bang when you don't want it to...

    [1] The annual mandatory "safety of ammunition" lecture was boring, but necessary. The annual report on "ammunition incidents" produced by the British Army always included one or two classic examples of moronic behaviour on the part of a user...

    503:

    Well, it could be observation or personal experience. Been there, done both of those :-( For another choice example, see:

    https://www.admin.cam.ac.uk/reporter/2001-02/weekly/5861/

    The first sentence of paragraph 7.67 of the first link summarises the project! You can deduce the name by which it was almost universally known ....

    504:

    The battleship Iowa turret explosion which killed 47 sailors in 1989 was primarily the result of poor handling of 45-year-old bagged powder charges which had been previously stored in improper circumstances during a refit. The US Navy's immediate response to the incident was to blame a saboteur.

    505:

    to whitroth @498: "Fun" fact - literally less than week before event their antique AA force proudly announced that they were relocated to the front line to prevent possible airborne infiltrations through border. No-bo-dy ever mentions this in their "investigation", but everybody knew that since the beginning.

    to Martin 500: I am rather uncertain about that thing you call "international community". There's a lot of international communities, but it seems you are regarding only those in which US opinion prevails.

    Do you believe that the Russian Army ever invaded Ukrainian territory? Do the Russian Armed Forces currently occupy Crimea? Are the Russian Army currently supporting troops in Eastern Ukraine? Are the Russian Army currently engaged in operations in Eastern Ukraine? No, no, no and no. Russian troops arrived at Crimea after the agreement on status of the territory was breached, and later referendum (as well as lack of resistance) did confirm to that. Crimea is now again an inalienable part of Russian Federation and in such way, circumstances of Khrushchev deciding to transfer for the Ukrainian SSR should be viewed and tried for abuse of authority. For your general education, according to agreements, Sevastopol was never really part of Ukraine because it hosts Russian Black Sea fleet.

    when the Russian Armed Forces did exactly that in the various Chechen wars When? Russian troops were certainly more professional even at worst of the times of First War, it was a corrupted command that lost the war. Ukrainian army has been dissolving during no less than 20 years, and most of it consists of penniless conscripts, nationalist volunteers and criminals.

    to Martin @502: There's much simpler explanations - when they go boom it means someone wants to hide something. In case of Russian bases it is probably to cover some corruption schemes. As for Ukraine, it is a simple thievery (Ukrainians will steal anything that isn't nailed to the ground with reinforced concrete piles). They are soviet military facilities, they are designed to withstand the accidents unless you light them up from multiple sides.

    506:

    At least the subsequent investigations by Sandia and the GAO exposed the likeliest cause, even if the US Navy dug its heels in and denied it.

    It's an interesting contrast to their response after the shooting down of Iran Air 655, around the same time. Their first reaction was to blame the aircraft, for a week or so - but at least they admitted shooting it down. The US Naval Institute published articles describing the incident, and criticising the Captain who shot down the aircraft. The US Government (eventually) admitted that the aircraft had been doing nothing wrong when they shot it down.

    Take Jean-Charles de Menezes; after a couple of days of "PR handling" (victim blaming), the Metropolitan Police admitted that it had killed an entirely innocent man. And held an enquiry to expose what had happened, when, and why.

    Consider Sergeant Alexander Blackman ("Marine A"). Convicted of murder, and quite rightly; but then downgraded to manslaughter three years later. I'm still annoyed at people who try to excuse his shameful behaviour - and I'm equally ashamed that there was no successful conviction of the murderers of Baha Mousa, and that the only real outcome was the career destruction of the CO, the OC, the Padre, and the Medical Officer; and the disbandment of the regiment shortly afterwards.

    Consider the convictions in the wake of the torture of inmates by the guards at Abu Graib prison; depressingly low, but there was no denial that the torture had occurred, nor any attempt to excuse it.

    There's a consistent theme here - namely, that after the excesses of the 1970s (although it's worth remembering that it was US citizens that exposed My Lai and Watergate), wrongful killings are generally admitted by Western governments and armies. This is in contrast to the Russian Government, which generally denies any wrongdoing, and indulges in huge amounts of whataboutery in response to any criticism.

    The other contrasting theme is that Western investigative journalists who embarrass their Government, and Western politicians who pose a threat to the electoral chances of a sitting leader, have a much higher survival rate and lower conviction rate than their Russian counterparts. In the West, criticising a Deputy Prime Minister in public doesn't get you involuntarily sedated...

    Of course, I could be wrong. All those dead Russian journalists and politicians might just be the victims of "criminal elements" (obviously Western-sponsored) and all part of a false-flag operation designed to blacken the reputation of the completely innocent Russian state. The Crimean population welcomed their liberators from the Spetsnaz with flowers and open arms. And that all those Russian troops in Abhkazia, South Ossetia, and Eastern Ukraine are brave and honest peacekeepers, forced by circumstance to defend the local citizens against oppressive regimes, remaining only out of loyalty, and wiping tears from their eyes as they carry out artillery fire missions against their poor, deluded, comrades in the Ukrainian Army.

    507:

    sleepingroutine @ 505 (Ukrainians will steal anything that isn't nailed to the ground with reinforced concrete piles) I am not one of the moderators, but I think you ought to re-read the blog rules - if that isn't "racism" or something similar, I would not be suprised - be careful, please.

    Accidental explosions. Look up Poudre B & the two pre-Dreadnaught French warships that "went up" as a result ( Ieana & Liberte I think ) or better still, the one that wiped out Oppau - approx 2kT of explosive mistake!

    508:

    to Martin @506: completely innocent Russian state See, we are coming to this part again.

    to Greg Tingey @507: My apology, this is not supposed to be "racist", this is national stereotype joke.

    509:

    Interesting that you deny that the Russian Army has ever provided support to the Donbass rebels...or that Russian soldiers have ever fought in Eastern Ukraine.

    It does make me wonder why Russian military deaths in peacetime are now regarded as a state secret (Cargo 200); how careless Russian soldiers on social media have obviously suffered "severe navigational embarrassment"; and where the tanks and artillery in the Donbass came from. The British Embassy was pointing out in 2014 that some of the tanks seen in the Donbass were of a type never operated by the Ukrainian Army, but only by the Russian Army (T-72BM).

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/british-embassy-trolling-the-kremlin-2014-11

    Regarding honesty, note that the Russian Navy spent months after the Kursk tragedy insisting that a foreign submarine had collided with the Kursk, causing the tragedy even though they knew from the recovery that it had been caused by a faulty torpedo. Unfortunately, the internal Russian Navy report didn't tell a comforting story of the professionalism of the submarine force.

    However, I'd agree that the Russian soldiers were less badly trained at the time of the First Chechen War, although neither side was well-trained, and thousands of civilians died as a result. Our battalion had a presentation by John Erickson around this time (he lived locally); the stories emerging from other intelligence sources told of unbelievable levels of brutality on the part of the Chechens, well beyond "no quarter asked, nor none given" - but also that the response was far from restrained, and that low levels of training in Frontal Aviation meant that air support involved blind bombing through cloud from medium level by instructor pilots (at the time, there were such limits on flying hours that few pilots were operationally-ready).

    Their command was certainly corrupt (note the scurrilous rumour that at the time the Russian Army deployed, that Pavel Grachev was enjoying a week-long drinking spree in the Transcaucasus Military District in order to celebrate his birthday).

    510:

    One thing about the convictions after Abu Graib which saddened but did not surprise me was that no officer of any sort was ever charged and prosecuted with anything. It is as if they didn't know what was happening in their command which was, after all, a prison complex and not an open-field operational combat area. It's almost as if they never ran inspections or checked what their enlisted subordinates were doing with the prisoners in their custody. Instead quite a few of them resigned their commissions afterwards and walked away. The enlisted soldiers got hard time and that was it.

    511:

    Nasty "national stereotype jokes" are part of the definition of racism in the West.

    512:

    to Martin @509: Interesting that you deny that the Russian Army has ever provided support to the Donbass rebels @500: Do you believe that the Ukrainian Army ever invaded Russian territory? I think it is time to stop.

    @511: Nasty "national stereotype jokes" are part of the definition of racism in the West. Modern definition, I guess. Sometimes I feel sorry for the West.

    513:

    Personally I find it hilarious that all Ukranians, including childhood friends and my first teacher in Primary school, are thieves unable to prevent themselves from stealing anything not secured.

    I'm confident that if this was a widely spread opinion in the UK it would never have any serious negative effects... wait, I'm hearing something about Brexit and immigrants? Well I'm sure it's not important.

    514:

    "Fun" fact

    None of what you say here is actually credible enough for you to take this sort of posture.

    515:

    Sometimes I feel sorry for the West.

    This is where you make yourself appear stupid, racist, or (most likely) both. And this is why all categories of social development favour "the West".

    516:

    By the way, EC, I invite you to contextualise sleepingroutine's statements here in a way that doesn't rely on just one perspective.

    517:

    It's an interesting contrast to their response after the shooting down of Iran Air 655, around the same time. Their first reaction was to blame the aircraft, for a week or so - but at least they admitted shooting it down. The US Naval Institute published articles describing the incident, and criticising the Captain who shot down the aircraft. The US Government (eventually) admitted that the aircraft had been doing nothing wrong when they shot it down.

    Interestingly, I discovered a few years back that this is still a myth among at least some people on the American far right. It's not as if our military could be wrong in shooting at Muslims therefore...something something hand waving. The acquaintance I was talking to was pretty fact resistant when discussing the details of the event.

    As a general rule, one good approach to fantastic conspiracy theories is to walk through the model asking, "How could this be made to work?" If the mechanical details are difficult or physically impossible, the theory needs work.

    518:

    A worthwhile process for good-faith participants. Sometimes people just want to believe, no matter what.

    519:

    all Ukranians This is where you make yourself appear stupid, racist, or (most likely) both. This sort of misunderstanding, this is what I am talking about. I was never referring to all of Ukrainians even though it is well-known national stereotype in Russian culture (you see, our nations enjoy much closer relationships than most of others). I was referring to Ukrainian "army" that invaded Donbass, and to current Ukrainian administration that occupied upper structures of the government. They are the epitome of the stereotype, not the people who inhabit the land, who suffer from corruption, invasions and criminals. I don't see it too hard to understand in the context, but it seems, some of your defence mechanisms had to take the upper hand. Do you think other Russians like me don't have their own negative national stereotypes, or they don't have their own leaders to criticise? Or maybe I should suggest I am really dissatisfied with Martin't text wall of loaded questions since it is antagonizing towards my country (i.e. "racist").

    to Damian @515: And this is why all categories of social development favour "the West". Social development is not supposed to make you blind towards society's demands. It is not supposed to construct walls of indifference and misunderstanding. And this is why not all of "categories" do favour "the West", and even less of them really shouldn't.

    520:

    I know you're from another culture. I'm saying this as a friend: please stop!

    This is a Western Blog, and under the moderation rules you're likely to get banned. I didn't mean to provoke you, but "nasty national stereotypes" are against the code of conduct of most Western blogs, especially left-of-center blogs. Right-of-center blogs have just as strict a code on "denigrating America". This is the environment you're commenting in.

    It doesn't matter if the rules are hypocritical they exist.

    521:

    Incorrect - the Lieutenant Colonel commanding the prison was charged, the Colonel commanding the interrogators was charged, and the Brigadier-General commanding the MP Brigade was charged...

    https://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/30/world/meast/iraq-prison-abuse-scandal-fast-facts/index.html

    522:

    They aren’t alone. There are still soldiers and ex-soldiers who believe that Bloody Sunday was a cover-up (i.e. that the IRA were present and firing at soldiers, and that those killed were gunmen and nail-bombers whose weapons were taken away). It wasn’t, and they weren’t.

    The Savile Inquiry was incredibly thorough; it changed my understanding of what happened away from “badly-commanded and undertrained troops suffering sensory overload and losing control in a complex and environment”, i.e. while that was true in some cases, in many of the killings it was murder rather than manslaughter.

    523:

    None of the officers at Abu G(h)raib were found guilty of much, most of them were acquitted, none of them did hard time unlike the "other ranks". One of the officers got fined if that link is correct. Is "dereliction of duty" an offence under the American UCMJ? I ask because they were obviously derelict in their duty to command and supervise the junior officers and subordinates they were responsible for. It reinforces the common belief that RHIP.

    524:

    As the saying goes:

    The entire time I've read this blog, you have been the least likely to contextualise your own statements here in a way that doesn't rely on just one perspective. The idea that you of all people would ask this of me is frankly ridiculous and no, I do not care.

    But, of course, I have done so, and am still doing so.

    525:

    Yes, indeed. It wasn't just Abu Ghraib, either, and the idea that there was no policy condoning or encouraging it is simply incredible, especially since we know that there was a policy of torture at Guantamano Bay. The UK seems to have been a LITTLE better, but there was certainly such approval at very high levels, because of the way that prisoners were passed over to known torturers.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/5206908.stm

    The one thing that you can guarantee is that ANY such internal enquiry will exonerate those who were responsible for the decisions, and blame those who carried them out.

    526:

    The really interesting things about such enquiries are generally not what they publish (and certainly not their conclusions), but the questions they are careful not to ask and what actions they take.

    There were a lot of those that were raised in the western press, including why such a vessel was posted to the Gulf, Why THAT particular vessel, why it was exactly where it was, and why Bush visited the Gulf to congratulate the crew on their mission, and why Rogers got a gong. It's hard not to be suspicious that the USN was hoping that the warship would be buzzed by an Iranian military aircraft, following its loss of face with the small (water) craft. See "Independent sources" et seq. in:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655#Iranian_government_account

    Anyway, back to other differences. In the MH 370 case, whereever the SAM came from, and whoever was manning it, there is not a scrap of evidence that there was an intention to shoot down an airliner. As the western press was reporting, the Ukrainian air force was bombing the civilian areas held by the rebels (yes, the facilities used by its own people), and the obvious deduction is that the intent was to shoot down such a bomber. Like Iran 655, shooting down an airliner was almost certainly a pure fuck-up.

    Also, there was a VERY different behaviour by the western governments. Public blaming of the president? Calls for everyone responsible to be tried by a hostile court? Sanctions against the culpable government? The word hypocrisy is too weak.

    527:

    Oh, I agree. They should have known, they were responsible for the culture within their unit, and yet they did not prevent the abuse and torture.

    Unfortunately, it’s difficult to prove criminal guilt. So, as you say, they didn’t spend time behind bars. It’s similarly difficult to secure convictions in cases of corporate manslaughter; and the British were no more successful when they tried (Lieutenant-Colonel Mendonca was cleared), but he left the Army having realised that he was going nowhere.

    528:

    ...the obvious deduction is that the intent was to shoot down such a bomber. Like Iran 655, shooting down an airliner was almost certainly a pure fuck-up

    That’s how I read it too, for both cases. Utter cockup, involving undertrained people, and without any malice aforethought (other than the desire for self-defence against military action).

    But in both cases, hundreds of innocent people were killed because a government handed an air defence system to aggressive incompetents.

    529:

    The UK seems to have been a LITTLE better...

    A bit, but I suspect Baha Mousa might disagree. I had read that funding of interrogation training in the U.K. had been cut back, and that the responsibility for questioning in Basra had been given to someone who had not completed the JSIW “long course”, or supervisory training. They appear to have been unprofessional at the role they performed.

    One UK-trained interrogator I know was positively irate when he heard of how prisoners had been treated; torture is strictly “second XI” stuff, because you just can’t trust the information that it produces.

    The one thing that you can guarantee is that ANY such internal enquiry will exonerate those who were responsible for the decisions, and blame those who carried them out.

    Again, I would agree. But then, the torturers should damn well know that what they did was wrong. “I was only following orders” is not, and never has been, an excuse.

    530:

    sleepingroutine: I was referring to Ukrainian "army" that invaded Donbass, - WHIHC IS PART OF THE UKRAINE - yes? So how can it be an "invasion"? Um err ....

    EC @ 525 I think & I emphasise "think" that Gitmo cam about because the USSA is not a Geneva signatory, so they can clasify the people they lifted off the street as "enemy Combatants" rather than either POW's or "Normal" criminals - how convenient! As for exonerating the decision-makers, the decision-maker in charge of the murder of a Brazilian electrician is now ... commisioner of the Met. Um. BUT Iran 655 was a fuck-up, which the US admitted to, MH370 may have been a fuck-up, but no admissions from anyone. Slight difference.

    531:

    Charlie Stross @ 483:

    "So you haven't noticed the OA-X procurement program currently running a competition to test two turboprops as counter-insurgency air support aircraft?"

    I know about it, I just don't believe the Air Force is pursuing the program in good faith.

    The USAF has a "Request For Information" (RFI) for a Light Attack Aircraft with an indefinite future. The "problem", i.e. lack of aircraft other than the A-10 capable of performing CAS missions was recognized after the 2003 Iraq Invasion. But the Air Force didn't get around to issuing their RFI until 2009, with aircraft supposedly entering service in 2013. In 2010, the proposed "initial requirement" was reduced from 100 aircraft to only 15 (compared to 350+ A-10 aircraft produced).

    But, AFAIK, it's not a "procurement" program. It still hasn't reached the stage where the Air Force has issued a "Request For Proposal" (RFP), which is generally the the first stage of an actual procurement process.

    I might have more confidence in it if the Air Force hadn't been stalling the program for 10 years already and only moved forward after they were dragged back by the Marine Corps trying to bring back the OV-10 Bronco.

    Seems to me more like they're trying to study it to death and "run out the clock" until there are no airworthy A-10s left so they'll be forced use the F-35 because it's the only platform they've got, and since they won't have enough F-35 assets to perform both Air Superiority AND CAS missions, they'll "reluctantly" have to let the CAS mission slide.

    I have less faith in the Air Force's top brass than I have in the Army's, and I trust the Army's top brass no farther than I can throw them.

    532:

    Nojay @ 510:

    "One thing about the convictions after Abu Graib which saddened but did not surprise me was that no officer of any sort was ever charged and prosecuted with anything."

    Not entirely. Several officers were charged, although none served any time.

    BG Janis Karpinski, Commander of the 800th Military Police Brigade (from which the soldiers assigned as guards at Abu Graib were drawn) was relieved of her command and demoted to Colonel, although she had no direct control over the prison or the soldiers assigned there.

    Col Thomas Pappas, Commander of the 205th Military Intelligence Brigade was relieved of his command, received a Non-judicial Punishment (Article 15) and a General Officer Memorandum of Reprimand. He did have direct control of the prison and was the senior officer present at Abu Graib during the death in custody of Manadel al-Jamadi, which was later ruled a homicide. He is currently a civillian intelligence officer employed by TRADOC at Ft. Eustis, VA.

    LTC Steven L. Jordan, director of the Joint Interrogation Debriefing Center at Abu Ghraib was charged with 12 counts of failure to obey regulations, cruelty and maltreatment of detainees, dereliction of duty, making a false official statement, obstruction of justice, and discussing the investigation with others when ordered not to do so. Col Pappas was granted immunity from prosecution in return for his testimony against LTC Jordan. Prior to his court martial 8 of the 12 counts were dismissed and he was acquitted of the other charges but for disobeying an order not to discuss the investigation. That conviction was dismissed during post conviction reveiw.

    The highest ranking soldier to actually receive a prison sentence was a Staff Sargent, E-6.

    None of the civilian interrogators, Contractors or CIA personnel were ever charged.

    533:

    Nojay @ 523:

    "Is "dereliction of duty" an offence under the American UCMJ?"

    Yes. United States Code Title 10, Section 892, Article 92

    “A service member who is derelict has willfully refused to perform his duties (or follow a given order) or has incapacitated himself in such a way that he cannot perform his duties. Such incapacitation includes the person falling asleep while on duty requiring wakefulness, his getting drunk or otherwise intoxicated and consequently being unable to perform his duties, shooting himself and thus being unable to perform any duty, or his vacating his post contrary to regulations.”
    534:
    “...the obvious deduction is that the intent was to shoot down such a bomber. Like Iran 655, shooting down an airliner was almost certainly a pure fuck-up”

    Martin @ 528

    "That’s how I read it too, for both cases. Utter cockup, involving undertrained people, and without any malice aforethought (other than the desire for self-defence against military action).

    But in both cases, hundreds of innocent people were killed because a government handed an air defence system to aggressive incompetents."


    The difference being that the US Navy eventually owned up to their mistake & tries to apply lessons learned to prevent themselves from fucking-up again.

    535:

    The A10 is also not capable of CAS - It has an attack profile which basically spells out "Suicide" against any competent opposition. - Its not stealth, so if the enemy still has functional coms, it cant surprise anyone, and its attack profile makes it very, very vulnerable to all anti air.

    Heck, near as I can tell, it can only attack tanks from inside the possible firing solutions of the main gun of the tank in question, so even in the very strange case where noone remembered to pack AA missiles, against a tank formation with ice in its veins and computer assisted aim, you are still just begging to be shot out of the sky.

    If the airforce wants to be rid of a plane which has aged into basically a flying coffin if ever used in anger.. I do not blame them.

    536:

    Charlie, re the paper on varying the name of the prisoner's dilemna game, The Name of the Game: Predictive Power of Reputations versus Situational Labels in Determining Prisoner’s Dilemma Game Moves (2004, 575 citations) google scholar will get you a academia.edu pdf link. Two experiments, one conducted with American college students and one with Israeli pilots and their instructors, explored the predictive power of reputation-based assessments versus the stated “name of the game” (Wall Street Game vs. Community Game) in determining players’ responses in an N-move Prisoner’s Dilemma. The results of these studies showed that the relevant labeling manipulations exerted far greater impact on the players’ choice to cooperate versus defect—both in the first round and overall—than anticipated by the individuals who had predicted their behavior.

    Also, if you haven't seen it, http://www.trumphotels.org :-)

    537:

    The A10 is also not capable of CAS...

    The publicly available numbers disagree.

    If you prefer anecdotes, we've got those too. Stuff like two A-10s killing 23 tanks in one day gets noticed.

    538:

    .. "Against competent opposition". Against third world armies, it barely matters what you fly or what you use. - If the radars have all been blown up and the coms jammed to heck and gone, you could fly in and kill things with a cessna. The A10 Its a weapon of killing people who cant fight back in any case, and if that is what you are doing, the "Concrete training bomb from several kilometers up" approach is going to cause less collateral damage, and also does not require a logistics chain you do not have to have in any case.

    539:

    Against third world armies, it barely matters what you fly or what you use. - If the radars have all been blown up and the coms jammed to heck and gone, you could fly in and kill things with a cessna.

    It's cheaper in the long run to have an aircraft that is competent to do other jobs as well as burning down grass huts than to have a "grass hut burning" aircraft and also an aircraft that can do other stuff but can be used in low-threat operations too when needed. The bad news is when the pre-flight intel hasn't caught on that the grass hut mission has suddenly become a flak trap and there is no option on an A-10 to stand off and deliver precision-guided ordnance from well outside that trap. The A-10's stiffy-inducing gun requires a screaming bayonet-charge, closing to well within a kilometre of the Bad Guys after firing as the plane almost overshoots the target. The A-10's existing missile capability such as Hellfire and Maverick need to be fired from a few km out unlike modern stand-off ground attack missiles like Brimstone which has a 50km range but requires a lot of 21st-century smart avionics on its launcher or support aircraft to make it work properly.

    540:

    Yes, let me clarify ...

    MODERATION POLICY

    Sweeping use of national stereotypes is, as far as I'm concerned, indistinguishable from crass racism, and will get you a red card (permanent ban).

    541:

    to Greg Tingey @530: So how can it be an "invasion"? Invasion is invasion, a large group of armed people who are actively try to occupy land that doesn't belong to them. That is a problem with modern media who portray Russia "invading neighbouring countries", it turns out, every Russian operation is preceded by another hostile invasion of same territory by the opposing force. In Second campaign of Chechnya, it begun when terrorist invaded neighbouring region of Dagestan to grab some lands. In case of Georgia in 2008, it was a mad president who thought it would be a good idea to invade and shoot at Russian . In Ukraine in 2014, people of certain allegiance grabbed the power in bloody coup and organized invasion force to submit the rest of the country to their government. They are no different than terrorists in their methods and intentions and the fact that they occupy large portion of a country makes no difference to their intentions. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_Dagestan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Control_Commission_for_Georgian–Ossetian_Conflict_Resolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Euromaidan_regional_state_administration_occupations

    to JBS @534: The difference being that the US Navy eventually owned up to their mistake & tries to apply lessons learned to prevent themselves from fucking-up again. The difference being there was literally no one else to shoot down Iranian plane for them and they still were reluctant to admit the responsibility. In the case of the Malaysian plane, they had to invent an elaborately long and conspiracy theory about evil Russian army, and let media force it onto the public opinion to to defend Ukraine's cause. And it doesn't make any difference for them if in the end it turns out the Ukrainian army shot down the plane for whatever reason there was hanging around (maybe they thought it was Putin's plane for all I know). The NATO would just wave it away saying "they cheated us!". No seriously, this is what's going to happen and you know it.

    Here's several points about how nonsensical this theory is. An-26 and similar were never bombing the city from the air. It would be used for reconnaissance, but not at altitude where the missile from 9K35 (acquired from Ukraine) wouldn't hit it, over 3.5 km. The missile launcher had to be moved in the broad daylight, without any disguise, without even it's markings painted over. It was a single platform without any radar capable of identifying the target it's firing at. It had to be pointed at the certain direction to anticipate the plane and fire at it head-on (with range of 25 km) instead of hitting it from behind, on return course. The operators had to be transported from Russia, but they, apparently, weren't capable to estimate target's altitude or speed to determine if it was a military plane (An-26 maximum speed is 540 kph, B777 cruise speed is 900, An-26 service ceiling is 7,3 km, B777 is 13,1). And this is before we go into details about how evidence and witnesses were handled.

    The thing about power-hungry alliances that seek to expand their territory and influence, they don't are about their victims any more than you care about your morning toast. It doesn't matter if Russia decided to recapture and protect Crimea, or it decided to support rebellion with diplomacy, volunteers, intelligence or humanitarian aid. It Russia would surrender to the demands and leave this place alone, the amount of provocations and sanctions would hardly be much lower (maybe less hysterical at it, but who cares). In addition, that would put the government under additional strain by their people criticizing it for inaction. They have learned it in previous conflicts, and not going to repeat the same mistake again.

    542:

    *Russian peacekeepers, I wanted to say.

    543:

    Yes, that is a difference, but only one of many. When it comes to being utter shits who don't give a damn about other people, I am at a loss to rank the USA and Russia.

    544:

    Errr... see Martin @508? ;)

    545:

    The missile launcher had to be moved in the broad daylight, without any disguise, without even it's markings painted over. It was a single platform without any radar capable of identifying the target it's firing at. It had to be pointed at the certain direction to anticipate the plane and fire at it head-on (with range of 25 km) instead of hitting it from behind, on return course.

    Which actually makes sense. Militaries deploy Air Defence systems in Batteries of multiple vehicles; AIUI the Buk-M1 battery consists of a command vehicle with a surveillance radar, and several transporter/erector/launchers; some of which carry the fire control radar necessary to guide the missiles to a target.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system#Operation

    The Donbass rebels needed something with a bit more oomph than a shoulder-launched VSHORAD system; because such missiles are by definition weight-limited, they’re typically only capable of a head-on or tail-chase flight profile, at low altitude. If you want to take on a Ukrainian aircraft that’s not flying directly overhead, you need something like... a Buk-M1 TELAR.

    So, you set up a single launcher to cover the arcs you know are used by Ukrainian aircraft; switch on the system; detect something in the right direction; and engage. But because you haven’t got the command post, the surveillance radar, or the experienced operators... you fire, you see something crash, you declare your success on VKontakte for all to see, and forty minutes later you find out that an airliner is missing. At which point it’s damage-control mode, because who wants to admit that they employ incompetents?

    546:

    I guess that this is an affliction related to having power.

    One unfortunate side effect of the sort of systematic shunning of racist expression (see Roseanne) that has been implemented in Western countries is a systematic underestimation of the extent of the racism/xenophobia of the median person. No one should have been shaken by Trump. (We seem to have a strong need to classify and exclude people. Once we eliminate race as an acceptable classifier, we find something else, even if it is implicit. It might be autism, or other mental issues, employment issues, dishonesty, sexual identity, lack of tolerance....)*

    Once one has that sort of systematic underestimation, it is easy to make sweeping statements about how the US and USSR are right bastards. However, I think it is more appropriate to consider that people are right bastards, just sometimes different sorts of bastards.

    Eg, a Korean friend finds Trump kind of stupid, but otherwise quite similar to politicians from home, probably very much on the mild side. She pretty much guarantees that there wouldn't have been a debate about removing immigrants... She also laughed when Obama was selected - noting that Hillary's loss was the perfect demonstration of the relative acceptability of power in a white woman or an African-American man.

    --Erwin *One of my more depressing observations is that, while there is variation in tolerance, it is maybe more accurate to model people as delivering a fixed amount of intolerance to chosen targets than it is to claim that some people are intolerant. More often than not, I watch the kindly, tolerant person either being cruel to people with limited theory of mind or adopting nearly genocidal policies towards redneck America. Honestly, I've mused that one feature of the ophoid epidemic that should be exploited would be to lock up millions of white Americans in labor camps (private prisions) to force changes in our drug laws and maybe a general amnesty. More seriously, I do favor differential enforcement to ensure similar impacts of criminal legislation. (If, eg, the incidence of drug use in different races is the same, the incidence of imprisonment should also be. This means that you take the actual ratio and use that to inform policing. Ideally, you'd also segment by class. The end effect would be continual search and seizure of wealthy people...and probably a rapid end to the drug war.) Heh.

    547:

    Re MH17: Do we know who the missile-launcher crew were, and what they are doing now?

    548:

    Stuff like two A-10s killing 23 tanks in one day gets noticed.

    ... In 1991, against a Middle Eastern army running on 1980s Soviet "monkey model" export vehicles, mostly T-72s.

    So, 27 years ago, A-10s (which entered service in 1977, 41 years ago), kicked the stuffing out of a cheap-ass version of a tank that entered service in 1973 (45 years ago).

    Frankly, neither the cut-down export-model T-72 nor the A-10 can be described as anything less than obsolete.

    549:

    Yes. As someone who is partially disabled / handicapped, I have first hand experience of just how much political correctness is used to hide bigotry - indeed, the most offensive discrimination I have had has come from the most politically correct, fairly often using political correctness to justify their discrimination.

    Yes, about Obama and Clinton. It's the other way round in the UK - many of the English (sorry, in the context of #540, but that IS the correct group) positively revel in being treated harshly by a dominatrix. It's not unknown in any society, but the prevalence in England has been a standing joke, insult and feature of pornography for centuries. Le vice anglais, Mistress Whiplash, Ooh! Err! Missus, Thatcher, and all that. Having been through the public (i.e. private) school system before the modern era, and knowing people who were brought up by governesses, I can believe that was a major factor in its maintenance. How widespread it was in Scotland (which had a similar system), and whether it will start to change now, I cannot say.

    550:

    Mind you, I was trying to abstain from the current discussion, it reminded me of the French dinner scene in Apocalypse Now at times, with the argument in the family and the "it keeps the family together" line at the end a friend took as a comment on the argument the family was having and not the rubber plantage (I find his reality more entertaining than the actual text...).

    But sitting at home with my family nearly has me banging my head on the wall[1].

    So...

    In Ukraine in 2014, people of certain allegiance grabbed the power in bloody coup and organized invasion force to submit the rest of the country to their government.

    Err, by that same logic any country could call any election it doesn't like "an invasion" and intervene. Not that I would find that generally objectionable, I'm at a personal highpoint for cynicism at this moment, still...

    (Though one might argue about this maximum, actually, I just realized I get on a lot better with my fellow humans since I realized they are just another kind of upright, hairless chimps. Where "fellow humans" even involves myself at times. But even I have my limits.)

    [1] Having an "absent-minded academic" with autistic traits for a father is taxing, especially if he's very defensive about his cognitive state and not too understanding about other peoples' problems, even if they are similar to his own.

    551:

    [Songs by New Model Army]

    Err, did you really have to mention them just AT THIS PRECISE MOMENT?

    Just when I realize I listened a little bit too much to Sullivan et al. in my late teens, err? g

    Might as well go for "Purity...

    "We've seen the restless children at the head of the columns Come to purify the future with the arrogance of youth Nothing is as cruel as the righteousness of innocents With automatic weapons and a gospel of the truth"

    Being depressed is much more fun if you're 16 to twentysomething. Especially if you hang around with quite bright people just as, well, not damaged but complicated as yourself. Though it tends to pile up more complications.

    (Guess I'll have to try to get out a little more next week.)

    552:

    Err, and for me ruminating about certain things, I know it's something of the opposite of the usual cognitive therapy for depression, but then, may I cite something from "The Delirium Brief":

    "The clusterfuck in Yorkshire was a Never Happens event, like an airliner crashing or a surgeon amputating the wrong leg: something that supposedly can't happen unless institutional procedures fail or aren't followed. This enquiry should be about determining which of these cases apply and producing findings so that we can draw up new guidelines that ensure it never happens again."

    It's just that I have to vent myself from time to time, and quite a few doing the same...

    So guess what kinda crowd/I hang around with now/Being bad is better/Than being nothing at all

    Now before I hum "Holiday in Cambodia" for the rest of the day...

    553:

    Hm, why do I think about Olenna Tyrell, err, Diana Rigg in the Avengers?

    Actually, your observations about English stereotypes are somewhat funny given the original masochist was Austrian,

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus_in_Furs

    and not having read the book I can't decide if Wanda is intended to be Ukraini, err, Ruthenian, Galician or Russian.

    It's somewhat in keeping with German stereotypes about Austrians, especially Viennese, though. Might have been me growing up in the 80s when Falco was in the charts...

    554:

    Footnote on the subject of T-72s, per wikipedia:

    The July 1997 issue of Jane's International Defence Review confirmed that after the collapse of the USSR, US and German analysts had a chance to examine Soviet-made T-72 tanks equipped with Kontakt-5 ERA, and they proved impenetrable to most modern US and German tank projectiles. A U.S. Army spokesperson claimed at the show, "the myth of Soviet inferiority in this sector of arms production that has been perpetuated by the failure of downgraded T-72 export tanks in the Gulf Wars has, finally, been laid to rest. The results of these tests show that if a NATO/Warsaw Pact confrontation had erupted in Europe, the Soviets would have had parity (or perhaps even superiority) in armour" KE-effective ERA, such as Kontakt-5, drove the development of M829A3 ammunition.

    So the circa-1991 US experience of T-72s in Iraq is extremely misleading — they were up against an inferior, under-equipped model in the hands of poorly-trained troops.

    555:

    You get the idea, with the Avengers. I can't offhand think of an earlier pornographic work involving masochism, but it's not an area I claim to be an expert on, and I am pretty sure that I could find an example if I searched :-) However, it's largely irrelevant. Sadism/masochism is NOT the same as domination/subservience, in a sexual or any other context, and flagellation does not necessary imply either (though it's associated with both).

    Anyway,I was talking specifically about domination/subservience, and my point is that we don't have trouble with women at the top, provided that they are dominatrixes. I believe that a 'person of colour' would have a lot more difficulty.

    556:

    The publicly available numbers disagree.

    As pointed out earlier, it's not as clear as that.

    This is a brief summary for each type: http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a235941.pdf

    This is the Summary Volume of the USAF official Gulf War Air Power Survey http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a273996.pdf

    And this Volume V (detailed statistics): https://media.defense.gov/2010/Sep/27/2001329816/-1/-1/0/AFD-100927-065.pdf

    Let's look at the USAF ground attack in DESERT STORM (p651 Table 205, "Attrition Rates")

    F-111F: 3 damaged in 2,420 sorties: 1,500 AFVs destroyed A-10/OA-10: 6 lost, 14 damaged in 8,640 sorties: 1,000 AFVs destroyed F-16: 3 lost, 4 damaged in 13,066 sorties F-15E: 2 damaged in 2,142 sorties OV-10: 2 lost in 482 sorties

    The A-10s were limited from flying 20nm of the border on 15 February, after two were shot down. By contrast, the F-16s were taking on some fairly dangerous targets - see Package Q.

    In other words, even though they were operating in a lower-threat environment, the A-10s were getting hit and killed at four times the rate of the F-16. And the only turboprop in the list (the OV-10) was being killed at twice the rate of the A-10. Note that the mission capable rates for the A-10 and F-16 were similar throughout the war, at 95% or so.

    Stuff like two A-10s killing 23 tanks in one day gets noticed.

    AIUI that was the total for the two pilots across the whole war, not their total on a single day. If you reckon on there only being 64 F-111F to destroy 1,500 AFV, then they destroyed that number of tanks on average...

    557:

    According to Reuters, the riots that led to the coup were orchestrated and armed by people or organisations unknown. And the way that NATO and the CIA used the coup to enter Ukraine like rats up a drainpipe makes one suspicious that at the very least they had prior knowledge of the coup and plans for doing so.

    558:

    to Martin @545: shoulder-launched VSHORAD system I did mention that Donbass militia operated 9K35 which they acquired from reserves and had trained crews to operate. It was a sufficient deterrent for most of the air force missions. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K35_Strela-10

    So, you set up a single launcher to cover the arcs A single launcher can not cover multiple arcs. You need several. You just admitted it yourself.

    you know are used by Ukrainian aircraft; switch on the system; detect something in the right direction; and engage If you know them, then you know the difference between military plane on a mission and passenger plane in cruise flight, even been woken up in the night, drunk and hit on the head. You see, even one of such mistakes anywhere in the army while operating live equipment would earn you a wolf ticket. Because there's no such level of incompetence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_ticket_(Russia)

    you fire, you see something crash, you declare your success on VKontakte for all to see And the messages were posed by ground observers who had no idea what is going on until they were informed by local population.

    That would be about 4 mistakes only complete profane would make. And still, complete profanes usually wish to prevail by continuing to throw even more of their arguments at their opponents. You know, first time I looked into moderation policy of this blog, there was a special paragraph for this cause.

    to alyctes @547: Do we know who the missile-launcher crew were, and what they are doing now? No direct witnesses were reported, AFAIK.

    to Trottelreiner @550: Err, by that same logic any country could call any election it doesn't like "an invasion" and intervene. 1. In case it was lost in the context, Greg was asking about an invasion of Ukrainian troops in Donbass. 2. Ironically, some certain you-know-which countries or alliances prefer to do exactly that on regular basis. 3. There was no election in Ukraine at the time. Armed (ultra-)nationalists ousted elected government in an armed coup (and by some reports, tried to assassinate the president) and self-appointed themselves as a new government.

    559:

    Wow. I don't know enough about the UK to judge whether or not you are correct. But, this is a potential explanation for differences in the UK's acceptance of female politicians. Definitely interesting and not something I would ever have guessed. Thanks :). (My personal suspicion dates to a diatribe from a Connecticut aristocrat who maintained that the flyover states were composed of the dregs of Europe and therefore ineducable.)

    I have a daydream of a world in which we don't use such binary judgement. Maybe one in which we don't invoke fairly disproportionate punishments on people who are a bit different - even if they are obnoxious and want us to die. (I mean, really, as a half-breed, I've talked to fairly well-meaning Chinese people who've explained that, in the eyes of many, I'm an abomination that should never have been born... They really were fine co-workers, no sarcasm intended. They just felt I had a glaring flaw - probably a bit better than the other graduate student who never bathed or the other one with a shouting problem.)

    I dunno - once I accepted that the median person (or thereabouts) was a dishonest racist homophobe with limited capacity for rational thought, unwise self-interest, and a decided lack of tolerance for anyone of different mental status - but that they also basically didn't care enough to kill me. Well, I can't say I've been exactly joyous, but, meh, I'm more often pleasantly surprised. I hope it has encouraged me to be a bit less needlessly cruel, or even just more self-aware when I react similarly.

    It is the difference between finding a no longer full diaper on the floor and being upset versus thinking - my - what ingenious little hands and relatively advanced problem-solving. I'm actually pleasantly surprised by how well solar power is going... And hey, I'm glad to be living in a country and a time where a liberal view of LBGT acknowledges that you can be LBGT and human. And, heck, we built the Oracle. Maybe soon we'll rebuild people - it appears somewhere between inevitable and doable. Now, the results may be iffy.

    --Erwin

    560:

    EC @ 543 When it comes to being utter shits who don't give a damn about other people, I am at a loss to rank the USA and Russia. Until recently, not difficult, Russia either as CCCP or under Putin was easily the "winner". Now that DT is in charge & has started to collaborate with Putin & let his own fascists loose ... not a lot to choose at all, is there?

    sleepingroutine @ 558 Because there's no such level of incompetence. OH YES THERE IS - there always is, that's the problem, or hadn't you noticed?

    561:

    Nonetheless, someone crewed it.

    Well, I can't blame them for not wanting to admit their colossal screwup. I'm just wondering if someone else had an active hand in their silence.

    562:

    A single launcher can not cover multiple arcs. You need several. You just admitted it yourself.

    Of course. But if you've got a single launcher, you cover only one arc, and wait for a target to enter it. After all, the desired outcome is not "prevent all air activity" or "defend key installation" - the desired outcome is "show the Ukrainians that their air force cannot operate with impunity". Any Ukrainian aircraft would do, you could wait all day.

    If you know them, then you know the difference between military plane on a mission and passenger plane in cruise flight, even been woken up in the night, drunk and hit on the head.

    I understand radars; and I understand non-cooperative identification techniques... (my first job as a design engineer was on fire control radar)

    I suspect that such IFF capabilities as are available in a Buk-M1 system are associated with the command post and 9S18M1 surveillance radar, rather than the fire control radar in every TELAR. However, even if the IFF system is in the TELAR's fire control radar, the mid-1980s-Soviet vintage electronics are going to have a lot of fun trying to differentiate between one twin-engined transport aircraft and twin-engined transport aircraft. Or one large jet and another large jet.

    While the interpretation of an analogue display might just possibly be within the skillset of a highly trained Buk-M1 TELAR operator (I'm a skeptic), I'm reminded of the case of Iran Air 655 - the latest, shiniest, AEGIS cruiser was unable to tell the difference between a diving F-14 and a climbing Airbus. Why should the Donbass rebels be any more capable than the USN?

    So, no. Your assertion of "even drunk and hit on the head" doesn't persuade me - unless, of course, you're a trained 9A310M1 operator ;)

    563:

    According to Reuters, the riots that led to the coup were orchestrated and armed by people or organisations unknown.

    Reuters also reported a lot of other things... Anyway, you appear to be saying that public protests that result in violence and lead to the fall of a government are illegal, and should not be supported.

    Would you therefore say that the Argentine Junta, and President Ceaucescu of Romania, were illegally overthrown? When the Berlin Wall came down, should Honecker have stayed in power?

    Was the armed resistance to President Pinochet "orchestrated and armed by people or organisations unknown"?

    Correspondingly, was the selfless support of the USSR in the (unfortunately forceful in the face of violent protest) reestablishment of Socialist government in East Germany (1953), Hungary (1956), Czechoslovakia (1968), and Afghanistan (1979) entirely justified?

    564:

    Oh, I'm quite sure there was quite some money from the US and other Western entities involved, for the US not necessarily CIA, there are a bunch of other possible agents involved. And money from Russia, though not necessarily GRU. Maybe there were even some parties that got money from both sides. This has been the state of European politics (and politics in general) since at least WWI (remember one Vladimir Ilyich and his German backers?), actually even before, there are quite some stories from the 19th century that come to mind.

    For added lolz, well, US politics is not above foreign influence either,

    http://www.dw.com/en/top-german-companies-ramp-up-us-lobbying-practices/a-43748806

    though I'm not aware of any support for armed seperatist groups. Yet.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_separatist_movements_in_North_America#United_States

    (And mind you, these are firms, not state actors, though the line gets muddy sometimes)

    It's just that with the Westphalian system of sovereignty there is some difference between two factions in Ukraine fighting it out over the Ukrainian territories involved and Russian troops entering Ukrainian territories (though if Russia was really trolling, it could use wordings similar to the Israeli justification for building settlements in the West bank or the idea of the Ukrainian state ceasing to exist, a justification Nazi Germany used concerning Poland and the US used concerning Nazi Germany, but I digress). Technically an Ukrainian rebel faction entering the Donbass might be an invasion in the sense of a military force entering an area held by an enemy, but since both parties aren't state actors it might not be an invasion in international law (please don't make me play lawyer in international law, I just vented my frustration in a posting above). Russian troops entering Crimea or Donbass, on the other hand...

    Yes, the situation with Russia is similar to what NATO did in Kosovo, but at least we can agree that one was controversial, too. So, no, Russian troops entering Ukraine is very likely not equivalent to Ukrainian troops shelling the Donbass.

    Not any more than Cuban support for the PRG was the same as the US invading Grenada.

    Of course, Russia might think of it as an incursion into its sphere of influence (just as the US thought with the Cuban and Nicaraguan revolutions).

    But if we use this justification, well, Russia is in the EU sphere of, err, interest, Putin winning is an incursion into said sphere, the executive forces enforcing his will are an invasion, so we might invade Russia, though best not in Rasputitsa.

    Of course, you could say that Westphalian sovereignty is hypocritical, with the influence the economy and military have on any government, and the demos in democracy quite often just boiling down to mob rule, and any "enlightened elite" are just oligarchs thinking themselves the aristocracy (which actually is my definition of "aristocracy"), and I'd be hard pressed to object, actually I might just invite you to a cup of tea.

    But as mentioned before, I vented my frustration a few postings above and am sadly in no position to implement my global regime of Sanation. So like any dysfuntional family we might just as well try to keep up the pretense of Westphalian sovereignty working, of course with bending it some time. And move out when turning 18 and being somewhat secure economically and competent to stand on our own. Err, wrong metaphor.

    565:

    I wasn't talking about money. The point is that, if NATO or the CIA were complicit in the coup, then moving their, er, staff in immediately afterwards DID constitute an invasion. Were they? I don't know, and nor does anyone else posting here.

    Originally, I thought that (despite those reports) the coup was solely by Tymoshenko's gangsters, to get control of the country back from Yanukovych's gangsters; the free and fair election of the latter didn't mean he was any better :-( But subsequent behaviour by the USA, NATO, and their hangers-on has made me doubt that was the whole story. In my life, I have been wrong more often by discounting conspiracy theories than believing them - and this is a very plausible one.

    The thing that really disgusted me about the EU is that it immediately abandoned its policy of not recognising regimes that had violently overthrown democratically elected governments. As I have posted before, the Russians tend to be paranoid, with good reason, and they are now certain that the EU is a hostile organisation. That is not good news for peace, but several other posters don't want peace - they want total victory :-(

    566:

    Greg Tingey Russia either as CCCP or under Putin was easily the "winner". Are you sure about that.m2ts

    there always is, that's the problem, or hadn't you noticed? This is not a problem, period. There's still possibilities as long as you are concerned about living in real world, but you are bound to review more physically probable ones before you go to less possible. It is still possible that whoever manned whichever missile launcher in the field of operation hit their toe on the seat and accidentally triggered the launch, even though the probability margin of that event far lower than entire operating history of this system. But it is still much more probable than random people transporting random launcher vehicle to random location to shoot in random direction to hit random target. The lower you can go with this, is probably some sort of alien abduction or maybe MH370 falling into Bermuda triangle and teleporting into the ground around crash site.

    to Martin @562: But if you've got a single launcher, you cover only one arc, and wait for a target to enter it. This is called "shoot something out of the sky". This is about as far from intended purpose as it gets, considering you ever decide to use missiles for anything. If you have a hammer and you want to hit a nail on the head, you don't proceed with hitting whatever you see in vicinity until you find it. But again, I do realize I'm probably talking to a special kind of people.

    I suspect that such IFF capabilities as are available in a Buk-M1 system are associated with the command post and 9S18M1 surveillance radar IFF is a strictly separate electronic system that transmits specific signal so that even active missiles wouldn't home at transmitter accidentally. Doesn't work with non-military vehicles. Doesn't affect IR seekers. Radar target acquisition is not IFF and doesn't offer much distinction between "large blob on the radar" and "small blip on the radar", but they are still offering altitude and speed for you to even determine if your missile can hit your target if you desire so.

    Why should the Donbass rebels be any more capable than the USN? Because they would be completely blind without support radar. In the same area and the same corridor there were dozens of other planes with similar flight profiles within the same day. Do people suggest the crew CONSCIOUSLY just aimed the thing at the first radar mark they found on the intercept course and fired at it? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hh06SqVx_1Q

    567:

    I was actually referring to this:

    That is a problem with modern media who portray Russia "invading neighbouring countries", it turns out, every Russian operation is preceded by another hostile invasion of same territory by the opposing force.

    See, I think I'm quite good at Doublethink, e.g. (in my definition) respecting a belief system totally bonkers but nonetheless employing it to some degree. Still not in the territory of some Agnostic Catholics I know who don't partake in the Eucharist because they don't go to confession, but I have my moments.

    (Might have something to do with having some lawyer and theologician friends...)

    So in this context I have no problem with the Russian line on Chechnya, at least as far as it's concerned with "civil war", it makes sense in the Westphalian system, Chechnya is part of the Russian federation.

    The situation in South Ossetia, Abkhasia and Donbass is different since these were not part of Russia but part of other former USSR countries. You might not recognise their governments, but the state apparatus was still more ore less working.

    As mentioned, NATO doing the same in Kosovo as Russia in Donbass is another matter, but at the moment it doesn't seem to become a habit. That is, militarily intervening in favor of a seperatist government. Recognizing a seperatist government is another matter.

    Not that I'm generally against it becoming a habit (I'm sufficiently cynical not to be for or against quite a lot of things), but that's with me thinking about rural reeducation camps for quite a few economists, people thinking nothing wrong with more CO2 in the atmosphere (though I might change that policy when cheap transit to Venus for demonstration on the spot becomes available), whoever penned German GMO law etc. And then, I don't think any sane person would put me in charge of foreign policy. Granted, for conventional measures of "sanity" in politics, which is inversely correlated with "sanity" measured by "concerned with our continual existance as a civilized species"...

    568:

    to Elderly Cynic @565: As I have posted before, the Russians tend to be paranoid, with good reason, and they are now certain that the EU is a hostile organisation. Most of people I've heard about don't really treat EU as independent organization. It is far too complacent to have it's own opinion, even after being hit by US sanctions repeatedly. No hard feelings, we can't really antagonize such people and we have decent relations with a lot of them.

    to Trottelreiner @567: See, I think I'm quite good at Doublethink As mentioned, NATO doing the same in Kosovo as Russia in Donbass is another matter I appreciate this honesty, however, this thing is called "double standard" and words like "another matter" is a signature phrase for it. It is not another matter, it is one and the same matter altogether. I'm just kinda trying to make you notice it. https://politikus.ru/uploads/posts/2015-08/1439038521_1.jpg https://politikus.ru/uploads/posts/2015-08/1439038474_3.jpg

    Westphalian system wasn't as bad when applied to regions like Europe with more defined nation states, but further to the east it is usually either a federation states or lose republics with ill-defined borders, since there's a lot of nationalities and ethnicities around in constant dynamics. Obviously a ripe ground for aggressive international cartels like NATO. Ukraine did not see any armed clashes since the end of OUN terrorists after Patriotic War, and that's well over 50 years, they were building passenger planes and space rockets back then. But all it took is one generation of glorious "support" of "democracy" to set it on fire. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organization_of_Ukrainian_Nationalists#Ideology

    569:

    Please cite the definition of invasion you're using, I'd go with "a significant number of combat troops entering an enemy territory". Please note we could argue if the US raid on bin Ladin in Pakistan was an invasion using this definition.

    Moving NATO and CIA staff into Ukraine wouldn't necessarily mean one, any more than the Cubans sending advisors meant they invaded Grenada in the example I used.

    (and I find it somewhat troubling that the best analogies for Russian action are US actions under Reagan...)

    Sending substantial numbers of NATO or Russian troops into Ukraine when invited by a illegtimate regime might be an invasion. We could argue if the Euromaidan was legitimate, but I think it's hard to argue they were less legitimate than the Donbass seperatists.

    To use an equivalency for moving in any staff, establishing an embassy might also involve a resident spy

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resident_spy

    still it's usually not an invasion.

    Of course, the line between "staff" and "combat force" gets blurred somewhat by "military advisors" partaking in actual combat

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_advisor

    As for recognizing a possibly illegitimate government, that's another issue, right with recognizing seperatists.

    Please note my personal opinions on Russian vs US influence at the moment might be colored by our local version of Tony Bliar

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerhard_Schr%C3%B6der#Criticism_and_controversies

    being pro-Russian...

    As for using the Russian gangster as levarage to keep the US (and British, and German, and French, and..) gangsters in check...

    570:

    Actually it's DOUBLETHINK because AFAIR I'm still owing the local anarcho-syndicalists one copy of Kropotkin's "Mutual Aid" and Wilsons "Sociobiology" each according to some talk we had in 2002 or so, and I don't think of myself being depressed/drunk/stoned at this point as mitigating circumstances. Which might just indicate to you where a quite vocal part of the sometimes conflicting modules I use to call "myself" are standing and what they think about "nation states"...

    So please excuse me if people posturing about "but our sphere of influence" or "but state sovereignty" reminds me of the nihilitst parking scene in Big Lebowski. Though it might take some time for said midules to find out why.

    As for "double standard", actually I'm trying to circumvent them by finding historical analogies for somewhat more current events. Quite a few of those being US "interventions" under Reagan should be somewhat troubling for those involved.

    As for NATO aggressively expanding...

    Well, I'm still of the Chomsky school of superpower alignment, it's best to band with the gangster further away. In Middle and Southern America, that were the Soviets, later on Russians or Chinese. For Eastern Europe including the Baltics, that would be the US. Please note Poland and the Baltics IMHO are just as entitled to paranoia as the Russians...

    571:
    Ukraine did not see any armed clashes since the end of OUN terrorists after Patriotic War, and that's well over 50 years, they were building passenger planes and space rockets back then.

    With the socioeconomic downfall starting some time before 2014. Actually I'm the last one to glorify what happened in the 90s. You might want to read Stiglitz

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_Its_Discontents

    maybe you might recognize some things...

    But all it took is one generation of glorious "support" of "democracy" to set it on fire.

    Sorry, I was trying not to let this escalate into a flame war, but some passes are to good to let them go...

    Actually, I can empathize with your ideas about democracy. After all, it got us Putin in Russia and Trump in the US. Honorary mentions to Berlusconi, Schröder, Thatcher...

    572:

    Radar target acquisition is not IFF...

    One of the articles I read on the Buk-M1 claimed that it was capable of target discrimination; the words used were "non-cooperative" (i.e. not the usual understanding of IFF). I'm sorry, I should have used "IFF or NCTR" for clarity. I was attempting to disprove any claim that the firing post would have positively identified the aircraft type.

    ...and doesn't offer much distinction between "large blob on the radar" and "small blip on the radar", but they are still offering altitude and speed for you to even determine if your missile can hit your target if you desire so.

    No - they offer range and speed (strictly speaking, range rate - speed towards / away from the radar). Altitude is not typically displayed, because you're limited to two dimensions on a flat screen - and the key values are range and bearing, or range and velocity.

    Range is easy; velocity is easy; bearing is easy. Displaying altitude requires additional calculations; necessary for the command post surveillance radar, less relevant for the firing unit.

    In the same area and the same corridor there were dozens of other planes with similar flight profiles within the same day. Do people suggest the crew CONSCIOUSLY just aimed the thing at the first radar mark they found on the intercept course and fired at it?

    Why not? MH17 was the flight that came closest to the firing unit; if you know where the Ukrainians are likely to attack, you can point the weapon system in that direction. Note that in the two days previously, Ukrainian aircraft at an altitude of over 6,000m had been attacked. If the aircraft is crossing the arc of the launcher at a slight angle, it might have an airliner's speed, but a slower range rate.

    Confirmation bias will do the rest; they expected an aircraft to appear, one appeared, they fired.

    Given the wealth of photographic evidence that places the launcher in the area before, the announcement on VKontakte, and the removal of the launcher afterwards, we can fairly safely say that the launcher was Russian-supplied and Separatist-fired. If you've got a better explanation as to why a Donbass separatist would fire at an airliner, I'd like to hear it.

    573:

    There is considerable evidence that the CIA was active in Georgia, and reasonable grounds to claim that the Russians moved in because of that.

    574:

    More or less, but you are making an unreasonable distinction between 'combat troops' and others; CIA agents and 'military advisors' are troops by other names. Yes, the murder (and that's what it was) of Bin Laden was a (temporary) invasion - I don't care about him, but do care about the rule of law.

    As I said, I don't know if the CIA and NATO were complicit in the coup but, if they were, it was an invasion by any reasonable definition.

    575:

    Define "active".

    There are SVR and GRU officers in the UK and USA. There are SIS and CIA officers in Russia. In all cases, they will be attempting to persuade local people to provide them with information. No sh*t, Sherlock, as they say - it's what they do.

    There would undoubtedly have been CIA, SVR, MI6, GRU, DGSE, and any number of other agencies with officers in Ukraine. Some will be double-hatted as diplomats, others will not.

    The question is whether they were just trying to find out WTF was going on, the better to inform the diplomatic options of their respective nations. After all, what sane government is going to rely entirely on CNN, Reuters, and RT for their raw information? How are they to judge the quality and reliability of information, without a clear understanding of the source?

    You appear to be conflating "CIA officers were likely talking to people in and around the anti-Yanukovich movement" with "the CIA was supporting the movement" or even "the CIA planned and directed a coup". At what point do they become "complicit" - when they learn something? Or if they fund it? Or if they try and tell the locals how to run a riot?

    By that rationale, any attempt by the SVR or GRU to operate anywhere near a protest movement in another country (say, by talking to the Peace Camp at Greenham Common to see if they could find out anything about deployment patterns, routines, readiness?) becomes complicity, and would count as an "invasion". And that's just silly.

    576:

    If I may add another off-topic question…

    Has the BBC recently changed their podcast server? When I went to do my usual weekly download of various podcasts I got everything from the CBC without problem, but the BBC ones wouldn't download. I got various error messages at first, but now it's uniformly err -9824 (which a quick search of Apple's site didn't find).

    Technical details: MacPro running latest version of iTunes that works under Lion (12.2.2). Yes, it's considered obsolete, but (a) it still works, and (b) four internal hard drives give me a lot of room for media storage.

    Location: Canada.

    So far I have three hypotheses as to what might be happening:

    1) the BBC server is having troubles

    2) the BBC has shut down access to foreigners (and expats)

    3) the BBC changed something last week and my computer can't cope (and the CBC, obviously, didn't make the same change)

    Advice from someone more technically inclined would he greatly appreciated. (Even reports of success/failure at downloading "In Our Time" as an iTunes podcast would be useful.)

    577:

    Actually, the situation with Abkhazia and South Ossetia is far more complex than you portray. While those regions were technically part of Georgia, they have had their own governments since the 90s. In other words, it would be like Cypriot soldiers moving into Northern Cyprus, or Iraq moving soldiers into the Kurdish region.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Ossetia#1989%E2%80%932008 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abkhazia#Post-Soviet_Georgia

    There are plenty of these breakaway regions around Russia's borders

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria

    578:

    DAMMMIT.

    There goes a really clever Scottish revolutionary story about how all True Scots[tm] get the real 38% sugar version under tha table while the feeble Tories suck on their saccharine replacements. It's like a class war fable...

    @551

    Yeah, try and find that song with the lyrics "Faster, faster, M25". Hard to find these days. I can never find it. Post it, then unlock: no, really. Faster, Faster, M25 - unlock.

    @573

    Er. Cough.

    We happen to be the people who engineered that. Georgia was all about long term plans and stuff.

    It's like Moldova, Brexit and the infamous $8 billion heist [COUGH HINT HINT]. Short 'unconfirmed' stuff is that ~ .RU was actually right there, it was some nasty fucks looking for total destabilization of the region running it.

    Most amusing thing here: Putin is a nasty fucker, and brutal. But the tings he fights against? Naaaaasty brutal shit out of the worst of the camps.

    Want to See Our Tattoos? торпеда LOL (~~// ignore))

    p.s.

    Mexico is now !!!FIRE!!! and it's getting worse in Central. Hint: they're going to flip the entire region into chaos.

    I think all commenting here should view what the Cartels do to each other to prove their territory.

    Since you're all nice people, no links nor direct NAME LINKS:

    Chainsaw Massacre - two men, well, it involves a chainsaw Monkey - Two men, face ripped off, heart taken out; meth used Bathed - Women being dipped in acid and broken limbs

    There's another 500+ films of it.

    You probably want to agree amongst yourselves what level of depravity is acceptable in a polite society, then start killing the ones who ignore you.

    579:

    Frankly, neither the cut-down export-model T-72 nor the A-10 can be described as anything less than obsolete.

    Oh, yes, granted that the state of the art has moved on.

    I think we've all observed that very little current warfare includes anything remotely like set piece battles between equivalent opponents. Asymmetric warfare is by its nature tricky. We know we can do better, we just don't know what we're going to need twenty years from now. Faster fighter planes? Drone bombers? Robots with lasers on their heads?

    Also, in the Gulf War case Iraq's biggest problem was not its hardware. A more skillful army with better morale still would have lost to the overwhelming mass of coalition forces - but the end could have been drawn out longer and we would have had to work harder for it.

    580:

    Well, that would mean the situation in these areas is even more similar to the one in Kosovo:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Autonomous_Province_of_Kosovo

    Though I'd have to look up what "autonomous" status means in international law.

    (As I mentioned, from a legal POV what NATO did there is just as problemtic as what Russia did/does in South Ossetia et al. And if you want to talk about real life being more complex than legal abstractions, well...)

    In the examples you used, Russian actions would be similar to the Turkish invasion of Northern Cyprus. Or the Iranians or Turkish invading the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to throw back the Iraqis.

    There are quite a few of similar areas in every border zone, with France and Germany there'd be the Saarland and Alsace, with Denmark and Germany Schleswig-Holstein etc.

    Please note the Westphalian system predates our modrn ideas of national and ethnic identity by a few hundred years and involved states compared to whom the Russian Federation or Yuguslavia were as homogenous as, say Lower Tadfield, Oxfordshire[1], e.g. the Austrian Empire...

    [1] Well, the Tenth Doctor as Crowley. Guess this BBC series might be fun.

    581:

    sleepingroutine @ 566 Yes - whatever the many failings & stupidities of the USSA ( Chile probably being the worst ), they still could not hold a cruelty candle to the USSR: E Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Rumania, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia. Ethnic cleansing & purges & murder of the intelligentsia etc ....

    You really don't believe that cackhanded total incompetence of that sort does not exist? Oh dear - ever read any accident reports, or historical accounts of monumental people-killing screw-ups? No. Sorry but you are wrong.

    Trottelreiner @ 571 ADD goat-fucking Erdogan to that list will you, please?

    582:

    As mentioned, "military advisors" blur the line, they might just be there training military of police forces. Or they might take part in actual actions.

    And as for invasions, some rebel groups might even think the Red Cross/Crescent working in the territories they claim for themselves an invasions. I'd like to stay with "combat troops", which would also include mercenaries and like, see Bay of Pigs. It gets really complicated with rebel groups operating in the territory of another state; Syria backed the PKK in the 90s, so are PKK fighters entering Turkey from Syria a Syrian invasion?

    583:

    Hm, Russian hostorical revisionism (AFAIK not official Russian policy at this time) might be fun with some "Russlanddeutsche" or "Deutschrussen" (there is a subtle difference). Quite a few are pro-Putin, OTOH, they generally don't have fond memories of Stalin(cogh). I can empathize with sleepingroutine in quite a few areas (which doesn't mean I agree), but

    At least for what I know, forceful relocation was not irreversible and many people were allowed to return to their homeland and resettle.

    would get me tarred and feathered with them, and then they'd get inventive...

    As for your request, well...

    "Actually, I can empathize with your ideas about democracy. After all, it got us Putin in Russia, Erdogan in Turkey and Trump in the US. Honorary mentions to Berlusconi, Schröder, Thatcher..."

    I'll omit the "goat-fucking", in the spirit of one Jan Böhmermann, I wasn't saying he was fucking goats, I was just demonstrating what was not allowed by German law.

    BTW, here's his take on Delirium tremens, err, Donald Trump.

    OTOH, it's just somewhat strange driving by "Fuck Erdogan" grafitti every day, when the same sprayer voiced his support for the AfD just a little bit more down. Reminds me of alcoholics complaining about junkies. Or junkies complaining about alcoholics.

    Whatever, for those somewhat fluent in German, Böhmermann's take on Theodor Fontane...

    584:

    That is a very restricted meaning, and a more mainstream one would be any organised, armed, military or similar force. And the complicity with the organisers of the coup is (in my view) an essential factor, distinguishing between an external organisation plotting to cooperate to take control and one accessing to a request by a de facto government (even if it wasn't a de jure one).

    Anyway, my point was NOT that there was an invasion, but sleepingroutine had a good point. Debate in the USA and UK at least (including this blog) is dominated by people who demonise Russia and whitewash the USA and UK, including when their actions are very comparable, and bang the drum for heating up the (currently mainly political and economic) war against Russia - as I said, that attitude is NOT good for peace, but they don't want peace.

    Yes, there are circumstances when the opponent is so determinedly evil that war is the only solution - WWII being one - but it's extremely rare, and this is not one such. Russia believes (with good reason) that it is fighting for its survival and Ukrainian Russians believe that the current government is out to destroy them (again, with good reason). In both cases, they need to be given some good evidence that this is NOT the case.

    585:

    Since you are including data from a distinctly previous era, the Amerinds might disagree. Damning today's Russia for the sins of the USSR, especially those from Stalin's era, is biassed close to the point of bigotry. Even with Putin in charge, it's not the same. It's not a nice country, especially since Putin came to power, but it's NOT what the USSR was and Putin is NOT what Stalin was.

    For a really obscene modern example by the USA, consider what was done to Fallujah. In general, the USA is more subtle (not that that's hard, when compared to Russia), but the list of their obscene foreign behaviour from the past half century is depressing. As is that of the UK, though ours is piffling by comparison, as befits our lesser status.

    586:

    I'm a big fan of Böhmermann. When it came out a couple of years ago, Be Deutsch was just the most perfect thing.

    587:

    Dang, I managed to flub that link. Try here.

    588:

    That's always my point, the A-10 won't last 5 minutes in WW-III, but the USA has been in counterinsurgencies almost continuously since its founding, and the A-10 is nifty for that. Not re-winging them (which will ensure they are retired soon) on the promise that the F-35 will make all of its remaining milestones on time (has it made any of them? It should have been in service and fully operational years ago, and that will be at best many years out) is absurd. Sure, when it's here, and demonstrated to work well enough, kill the A-10.

    Much like the argument about super carriers (or, anything that isn't a submarine (or, perhaps even them)), they won't last past day one of WW-III, so they are useless. Well, if you are going to have an empire, being able to have a quite capable airport show up off shore almost anywhere is really useful. I don't think we need 11 of them, but having a few is quite handy (really, having 1 or 2 are just toys, or things to learn on, you need at least 4 to have them be useful (1 down, 1 training, 2 operational)).

    So, someday, the A-10 should be replaced. A cheap dedicated aircraft + F35 might make the most sense, but as neither is in service yet (not for ground support), we should keep the A-10 until its replacement has been shown to work (if we are not in a shooting war, in exercises).

    589:

    EC @ 6585 Yes BUT Putin might be Lavrenti Beria or Yagoda, mightn't he, given that he's ex-KGB?

    590:

    The A-10 isn't actually that good at counter-insurgency operations or even CAS. It's slow to get to a target (max speed about 440mph) so either it operates from fields close to the front line that themselves need defending from insurgents/freedom fighters or they spend a lot of time in the air flying cabrank ovals eating up fuel, airframe hours, pilot time, refuelling tankers, airbase support etc. The A-10 was designed to fight in an all-out war in West Germany killing armour while being swatted out of the sky by integrated AA defences, and even by the time it was actually deployed the dakka-dakka gun wasn't a sure kill on the top-line Soviet tanks. CAS and counter-insurgency were roles it adopted and actually it isn't very good at it.

    CAS and counter-insurgency can be done by other aircraft already in use, better and faster and cheaper in terms of logistics, even flown off carriers parked well out of harm's way. The F-35 is putatively the American airframe that will be doing most of the workload of piloted combat including air-to-ground for the next half-century.

    As for carriers, remember that the USMC has its own fleet of smaller carriers (the existing Wasp-class and new America-class LHD ships) and the F-35 in its B-variant can operate off them unlike the obsolete A-10. The regular carriers and especially the new Ford-class CVNs will of course also operate F-35s in its C-variant over the next few decades.

    The A-10 is a flying battleship, basically and even the US gave up on battleships a long time back (but not soon enough).

    591:

    A cheap dedicated aircraft + F35 might make the most sense, but as neither is in service yet (not for ground support)

    Which part of "they've just delivered the 300th F-35", "the USMC has an F-35B squadron deployed on USS WASP", and "the Israelis have sent it on combat missions" did you miss?

    The USMC declared IOC for the F-35B in 2015, and they've been doing the whole RED FLAG thing for a couple of years now...

    https://sldinfo.com/2017/08/the-marines-at-red-flag-17-3-the-f-35b-returns-to-red-flag/

    Note the comments about CAS and Ex STEEL KNIGHT...

    592:

    It's somewhat difficult to judge his intent sometimes, though.

    "Be Deutsch" was both critizised for expressing a "we finally redeemed ourselves and can lecture the world on ethics" mentality und lauded for satirizing said mentality:

    https://www.intro.de/kultur/jan-bohmermann-und-be-deutsch-wohlfuhlpatriotismus-vs-ironie

    It's similar with "Ich hab Polizei",

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNjG22Gbo6U

    satirizing violence in rap lyrics and police work ("Brichst Du Gesetz, bricht Dir Polizei die Beine." - "you break the law, police breaks your legs") and sexism ("Liegst schneller flach, als Gina-Lisa auf Roofies.") or endorsing it.

    Needless to say, I can spend hours watching his videos on youtube, I'm just anxious for the "jump the shark" moment...

    593:

    No luck till now with finding this version. A friend was a big NMA fan back in the day (though she didn't wear army boots[1]), and she might be able to help, problem is she moved away one or two years ago, and it seems she broke up relations to most of her friends here. I haven't gotten into contact with her again, we could talk about Neil Gaiman and Third--Wave fem again...

    I last met her in autumn 2014, IIRC, memory is hazy at this point. Next memory was 31C3 (sadly my last C3 till now), which I quite liked, though I lay down with irritable bowel for a few days. Then comes nothing, and then the job interview for my job at helpdesk.

    My visit with her and her boyfriend was quite nice, but in retrospect she being not that keen on me being on SSRI and antihypertensives while smoking a joint was somewhat surreal.

    [1] One line I really liked in "Halting State".

    594:

    I agree we shouldn't demonize Russia, and say what you want, Putin is a professional and competent, something you can't say about Delirium Tremens.

    (I'm somewhat fascinated by Machiavelllian intelligence, just as e.g. Peter Watts is fascinated by sociopaths. Of course, I'm totally different and inept at manipulating others cough.)

    Problem is, for me Russian politics is "the other side" on quite a few issues, for the things that immediately come to mind, see

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_gay_propaganda_law

    or

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4715906/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5248462/

    (Where the Russian stance on drug law is somewhat strange for me, given one of my first contacts with web forums after usenet existence failure in 2009 was with a forum about pharmacology both medicinal and recreational including quite a few Russian posters. Which reminds me I should look into molecular dynamics software again soon, but I digress)

    or

    https://www.ft.com/content/24093204-1af7-11e8-a748-5da7d696ccab

    So while I agree we should take their paranoia into account, that doesn't necessarily mean I am especially keen to see them keeping their power. Or would be upset about them losing some of said power, not so much we get a vacuum filled by more hideous entities, of course.

    595:

    Elderly Cynic @ 573:

    "There is considerable evidence that the CIA was active in Georgia, and reasonable grounds to claim that the Russians moved in because of that."

    Don't be coy. Cite some of it. Give us some URLs to check out for ourselves. Maybe even some from western sources?

    596:

    Martin @ 591

    "https://sldinfo.com/2017/08/the-marines-at-red-flag-17-3-the-f-35b-returns-to-red-flag/"

    That is the worst, most fucked-up website I have seen in a long time; a prime nominee for Web Pages That SUCK!

    How are you supposed to read the damn thing when the text won't stay in one place? It's bad enough to give you a goddamn migraine.

    597:

    But, we are buying an unfinished design, and then upgrading them as things improve. Last I read, they were looking at never upgrading the first 30, because it was too much money. As the design isn't finished, those we do have are not anything like fully capable. The A-10 isn't obsolete (it's not like you can buy something better), but you can argue what jobs it's good for. And if it doesn't have current avionics, that's because the Air Force won't upgrade it, we saw the same thing happen with the SR-71, for example, and a year after they retired it, we needed it again.

    598:

    That just might be a browser issue on your side. No problems here on a win 7 box with firefox 60.0.2

    599:

    I look at tens of thousand of links a year - do you seriously imagine I collate all of them? Anyway, since you seem to have difficulty soing simple Web searches, here are two I found immediately:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/cia-agents-murder-is-a-hard-blow-for-georgia-freddie-woodruffs-death-reflects-the-threats-from-both-1463026.html

    http://cryptocomb.org/?cat=2&paged=5

    It's hardly information that was difficult to find at the time, or now.

    600:

    I would be extremely happy to see a liberalisation of Russia, but the current policies could have been to do precisely the opposite, as has been pointed out by experts time and time again. At least some people are supporting that approach, because they want Russia as an enemy.

    601:

    to Trottelreiner @569: Please cite the definition of invasion you're using, I'd go with "a significant number of combat troops entering an enemy territory". Please note we could argue if the US raid on bin Ladin in Pakistan was an invasion using this definition. Everyone like to apply their own definitions and make whatever they like out of them. For once, even if we apply your defintion, "invasion" of Crimea is not an invasion, since it is not an enemy territory (we are not in war, if you did not notice). E. Ukraine and Georgian "anti-terrorist operations" are invasions, since these armed thugs (can't call it "army" after all) simply designated the whole region as "terrorists" for not agreeing with their demands.

    to Greg Tingey @581: Yes - whatever the many failings & stupidities of the USSA ( Chile probably being the worst ), they still could not hold a cruelty candle to the USSR: E Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Rumania, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia. Just because atrocities by western empires were swept under the rugs, doesn't mean nobody will know about them. You know what western leaders like to tell us. "That wasn't real capitalism" or "these (bad word) did it to themselves" or "we were just passing by". https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/18/world/asia/indonesia-cables-communist-massacres.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_genocide https://www.globalresearch.ca/us-war-crimes-against-north-korea-sinchon-massacre-by-u-s-military-exposed/5602722 I'm not even well-informed about such events, it is enough for me to know about history of my country. There have been far too many stupid patterns involved when others tried to isolate my nation, divide it over useless squabbles and fool it with shiny trinkets. They did not work.

    You really don't believe that cackhanded total incompetence of that sort does not exist? You still ignored my point entirely. Quite a shame.

    to Elderly Cynic @584: You see, people who revive the Cold War, who cite "revisionism" and so on, who are scared of the past, they have a point. But it is not favourable for them. They want to continue to antagonize someone not because they are stupid, or mad, or whatever simple explanation might lead you to. It is because nature of their society makes it so.

    With disappearance of USSR major capitalist powerhouses did not disappear as well. Their interests did not vanish into the realm of abstract ideas and dreams. In fact, they became even hungrier, even more cynical, aggressive and subversive, because there's no one to hold them accountable for their deeds. Did they expect Russians to just surrender and submit, like many others did? I suppose so, because otherwise we wouldn't have a chance to elect someone who might stop the destruction of a country, disappearance of history and culture, collapse of international law and economy in the region. It is still a long way to return what is lost, and a lot of progress to do, learn from many errors we made, but this is way better than stay complacent and be treated like cattle.

    I would be extremely happy to see a liberalisation of Russia Many people don't even realize that Putin is, in fact, a liberal, and has always been. Not the kind of loud-mouthed "liberal" you used to have in the TV, but a literal one, he is occupying a middle ground and tries to balance out everything. Many people hate him for this exact reason, they argue that he is acting too soft on oligarchy, or he is powerless to change something. It does not make any difference for West, though, for the reasons already mentioned.

    602:

    Beg pardon, the US yields to no one: 1. Slavery 2. Native Americans 3. Mexico (shall we include Texas in that?) 4. Central and South America (the Monroe Doctrine, the US-funded death squads in central America, esp. Nicaragua before the revolution, and the Marines to Guatemala, I think...

    We won't even mention 'Nam or Iraq (or what we did to Iran in '53).

    Do I need to go on?

    603:

    Major capitalist powerhouses disappear? Hell, that was their victory, the Evil Communists won't threaten our Sacred Profits, now we can rape the world, unchecked!!!

    This is not the future we were promised.

    Liberalization... of course, when they say that in the West, what they mean is "lie down and enjoy it".

    604:

    Brexit: I see that Saturday, y'all had tens of thousands in the streets of London, protesting Brexit. Good for you, and luck.

    605:

    Tens of thousands?!? I'd like to know what outlet you saw that in ...

    The BBC — with institutional pro-Brexit bias — reported 100,000 marchers. But the Metropolitan Police noted that the square and the approach road have a capacity between them of 300,000, and they were so packed there was a danger of a crush happening: some demonstrator estimates put it at up to 500,000 marchers.

    The counter-demo march had by all accounts ~500-1000 marchers, including neckless wonders bearing identarian movement flags ...

    Note that a 250,000 person march in the UK is, per capta, the proportional equivalent of a 1.25 million person march in the USA.

    606:

    But, we are buying an unfinished design, and then upgrading them as things improve. Last I read, they were looking at never upgrading the first 30, because it was too much money. As the design isn't finished, those we do have are not anything like fully capable.

    That's rather a mischaracterisation of the situation - all combat aircraft enter service "unfinished"; all of them require headroom for future changes and fixes (our radar processor had a contractual requirement to leave 25% room for growth in working memory and processor load, within the initial delivery). The F-35, like most aircraft designed after the start of the digital era, was designed with upgrades in mind. Again, like most aircraft, it enters service with an "Initial Operational Capability" while the trials are completed (and software changes made) to allow it to reach "Full Operational Capability". These don't necessarily involve any hardware or software changes - it might just need a set of instrumented flight trials to confirm that weapon X is safe to use on stores station Y under flight conditions Z (e.g. Meteor and Brimstone integration for the RAF).

    An example of this is the Eurofighter Typhoon. The air-to-ground modes were specified in the initial specification and development contract, and designed in from the very beginning. But because it was planned to replace air defence aircraft first (the Spanish and Italian F-104, the German F-4, the British Tornado F.3) before ground-attack aircraft (the Jaguar) the focus was on developing "fighter" capability first; "bomber" capability second. The air-to-ground trials were happening after the Typhoon entered service; and was a useful indicator of the credibility of commentators. If they claimed "Typhoon A-G modes were bolted on, Typhoon is junk, etc, etc" then they neatly demonstrated that they were an amateur who didn't understand the situation.

    There will undoubtedly still be work going on for "interesting" F-35 operational modes; e.g. they've now demonstrated an F-35 cueing and guiding the launch of an SM-6 as a cooperative engagement (link); name another combat aircraft that can do that?

    The A-10 isn't obsolete (it's not like you can buy something better), but you can argue what jobs it's good for.

    As has been repeatedly pointed out, @556 - it was obsolete nearly thirty years ago in 1991 when it was getting shot down too often, and so was relegated to "within 20nm of the Saudi border". It's too slow, it's not in any way stealthy, and it's not got the EW to make up for the other two weaknesses. As I pointed out, it was being outperformed at tank-killing by the F-111, and getting shot down at four times the rate of the F-16, even though it was taking on less-well-defended targets.

    The one modern air force who have actually employed CAS against massed tank attacks (the Israelis) refused to even consider the A-10; they didn't think it was survivable.

    And if it doesn't have current avionics, that's because the Air Force won't upgrade it

    Not even close (link).

    The A-10 has been though several avionics upgrades; cockpit, flight control, datalink, targeting, comms - the 2005 upgrade alone was $1.7 billion. Unfortunately, at some point you have to choose where you spend your money most wisely. Do you attempt to put more lipstick on the pig, or do you acknowledge that its time has passed and that you'll get more bang for your buck elsewhere?

    607:

    Interesting. The bits of the BBC I saw reported only 'thousands', and played it down. But, again, it isn't pro-Brexit so much as the UK's Pravda - if the government dropped Brexit, it would change tack faster than you could change Oceania to Eastasia (or whatever it was - someone's walked off with my copy).

    608:

    sleepingroutine @ 601 "You really don't believe that cackhanded total incompetence of that sort does not exist? You still ignored my point entirely. Quite a shame."

    OK, what WAS your supposed point, then? You certainly appeared not to believe that such utter fuck-ups happen, because people are complete twats - well they do & they are. Again, what were you trying to say, then?

    P.S. Putting Rwanda at "the Wests'" door won't wash either, AFAIK it was internal, or at the most internal + cross-border with the neighbouring African areas.

    Many people don't even realize that Putin is, in fact, a liberal, and has always been. Now that I simply do not believe. He's an authoritarian in the classic Russian mode. Half-the time, when I see pictures of him, the Tsarist anthem plays in my head ....

    609:

    Back to Brexit and the media:

    Bloomberg are breaking a story The Brexit Short: How Hedge Funds Used Private Polls to Make Millions about where a lot of the soft money behind the Leave campaign was coming from and what it was invested to achieve — to enable hedge funds owned by the likes of Lord Ashcroft, Aaron Banks, and Nigel Farage to make hundreds of millions of pounds in instant profits by shorting Sterling.

    As YouGov’s Twyman predicted a Remain victory on Sky, three of his colleagues were watching from inside the London office of a hedge fund. In addition to the public exit poll for Sky, YouGov earlier sold a private exit poll to this fund, which provided data to traders that matched the results Twyman presented on television, effectively giving them an edge for betting on the rise in the pound sparked by his comments, according to sources familiar with the events. YouGov staff code-named it “Operation Pomegranate.” It charged the hedge fund roughly $1 million, according to knowledgeable sources. Separately, YouGov gave Sky its poll for free. The hedge fund did extremely well, according to three sources familiar with the situation.

    The whole thing was a classic example of disaster capitalism meeting with cronyism and, arguably, insider trading by way of the shadowy right-wing international movement we've become familiar with over the past few months. Oh, and Nigel Farage should be answering questions from the Serious Fraud Office about just why he conceded defeat immediately after polling closed, in time to trigger the sterling rebound that made his mates millions.

    Just remember, this story isn't coming from some tinfoil-hat conspiracy website: it's in Bloomberg, and they've got the figures and market stats to back it up.

    610:
    Now that I simply do not believe. He's an authoritarian in the classic Russian mode.

    It might depend on the context; Obama was liberal for an American politicians, in an European context...

    Problem is I'm not sure which of the definitions of "liberal", e.g. economic, civil liberties etc. sleepingroutine is using.

    I'm also somewhat surprised he used the world "liberal", given the somewhat negative connotations the word carries in Russia, though actual Russian rightists usually use another term:

    http://akarlin.com/2010/04/on-liberasts-and-liberasty/

    (please see https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Anatoly_Karlin on the guy)

    I'm not sure where to put sleepingroutine in the Russian political arena, not that I know with quite a few other Russians or Ukrainians I know. But you sit down and listen...

    (I have for now given up on explaining "sovereign state" to him, not that I would have much more luck with some Western Europeans or USians.)

    611:

    Just remember, the F-35 is the pinnacle of its design, totally comparable to the knights in half armor armed with pistols who tried to keep the armored cavalry alive in the face of improving firearms technology, what, 600 years ago or so?

    This is why the cost per plane, cost of the program over its lifetime, and assumption of a 50 year lifespan are so obscene. It's flying gothic armor.

    Yes, I know it's the morale equivalent of an ED drug for older male politicians and senior officers. Unfortunately, traditionally female issues, like livable wages, climate change, and safe migration are not getting funded at all, surprise surprise. The sad thing about the F-35 is that, unlike plate armor, it can't even be usefully recycled or make a decent museum display, due to all those fancy and friable materials it's made out of.

    612:

    Interesting...

    I wonder if that would meet the definition of high treason...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_treason_in_the_United_Kingdom

    Let's see, http://www.legislation.gov.uk/aep/Edw3Stat5/25/2

    "When a Man doth compass or imagine the Death of our Lord the King, or of our Lady his Queen or of their eldest Son and Heir."

    Hm, most likely not appropiate, though I guess discussing succession must be hard when you are not allowed to think about the current monarch dead.

    "Or if a Man do violate the King’s Companion, or the King’s eldest Daughter unmarried, or the Wife of the King’s eldest Son and Heir."

    Also most likely not appropiate, and I guess high school is going to be tough on any princess. Still...

    "Or if a Man do levy War against our Lord the King in his Realm, or be adherent to the King’s Enemies in his Realm, giving to them Aid and Comfort in the Realm or elsewhere."

    Now we are getting somewhere...

    "And if a Man slea the Chancellor, Treasurer, or the King’s Justices of the one Bench or the other, Justices in Eyre, or Justices of Assise, and all other Justices assigned to hear and determine, being in their Places, doing their Offices."

    Interestingly, that doesn't include th Prime Minister, AFAIK. Though maybe the bank his/her Royal majesty uses. No fun for bankrobbers...

    Whatever, might be worth the hazzle, especially if part of Farage's hedge fund mo ney came from outside the UK. They don't do the "hanged, drawn and quartered" part anymore, do they? No that I'm generally in favour of capital punishment, but you have to go by old English traditions...

    613:

    This is why the cost per plane, cost of the program over its lifetime, and assumption of a 50 year lifespan are so obscene. It's flying gothic armor.

    You appear to be channeling the UK's 1957 Sandys Defence Review (link) - essentially "missiles will do everything, most manned aircraft will go the way of the Dodo". The actual minutes of the Cabinet meetings make for interesting reading: http://filestore.nationalarchives.gov.uk/pdfs/small/cab-128-31-cc-57-26-26.pdf http://filestore.nationalarchives.gov.uk/pdfs/small/cab-128-31-cc-57-28-28.pdf http://filestore.nationalarchives.gov.uk/pdfs/small/cab-129-86-c-57-84-34.pdf

    Similar things have been said about tanks, because obviously ATGM. And about manned aircraft, because Swarm! Drones! UAV! Eppur si muove...

    Yes, I know it's the morale equivalent of an ED drug for older male politicians and senior officers.

    Hmmm. Leave aside the politicians (all too often beset by Dunning-Kruger, or campaign funding from a rival aerospace firm) who in reality are the ones insisting that the A-10 be kept in service because haz b1g k3wl gun moar dakka...

    Unless you're in reality a professional airman, you're an armchair enthusiast, and those senior officers are the ones who have spent decades refining air warfare tactics. As OGH put it: 'I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken.'

    Unfortunately, traditionally female issues, like livable wages, climate change, and safe migration are not getting funded at all, surprise surprise.

    You might be surprised at the irony of the leaders of the US Armed Forces campaigning for more foreign aid to be spent - because they understand (even if the politicians don't get it) that an ounce of prevention is far, far better than a ton of blood price when things get violent.

    https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2017/06/12/budget-foreign-aid-cuts-national-security-000456

    614:

    I'm not sure where to put sleepingroutine in the Russian political arena

    He's living in a bubble, much like the rest of us. However he's still at a level of pointing out other people's bubbles without understanding very well what they are or why they can't just be discarded, and not perceiving his own at all. I suspect he's very young for this group, and if he keeps at this stuff he might have something interesting to say in another 10 years or so. At the moment he just isn't knowledgeable enough about things outside his bubble to contribute usefully.

    I think there are a handful of core values -- rule of law, participation, equal rights, abolition of the death penalty, fair elections, life expectancy (or QALYs these days), a free media, absence of political coercion or persecution, etc -- that most of us here recognise as being not simply ends in themselves (although they are that, too) but also uplifting for the societies that do well with them in general. For instance, Iceland's GDP growth is linked quite closely with participation and equal rights, while the rule of man instead of the rule of law has constrained economic growth in both China and Russia (China did something about it, though it is still liminal in many regards). By no means do western democracies all get full marks on any measure, it's just that they are the places where these things seem to be valued most.

    Which brings us back to bubbles. If you're operating in a context where the rule of law isn't valued, you might feel like the rest of us need to explain why it should be. That's context, as you say. But I think that someone making a statement like "Putin is a liberal" is framing themselves in a context that lacks self-awareness to a larger degree that one might expect, even allowing for that.

    615:

    Re: Core values

    The World Happiness Index looks at all those values plus a few more like immigration which has been making major headlines worldwide for the past few years. Immigration and increased civilian death rates also figure quite strongly in the 2016 UN PowerPoint report (below). Maybe this is how the wannabe 'powers' figure they can win a war - kill the civilians, esp. women and children.

    Excerpts:

    'It is estimated that close to 90% of current war casualties are civilians, the majority of whom are women and children, compared to a century ago when 90% of those who lost their lives were military personnel.'

    https://www.un.org/pga/70/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/01/Conflict-and-violence-in-the-21st-century-Current-trends-as-observed-in-empirical-research-and-statistics-Mr.-Alexandre-Marc-Chief-Specialist-Fragility-Conflict-and-Violence-World-Bank-Group.pdf

    More recently, the UN issued a statement about a 10-fold increase since 2005 in armed conflict - highest it's been in decades.

    https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/06/1012462

    BTW, the WHI study is funded by the UN who wanted to look at what factors beyond economic$ make for a healthy society.

    616:
    I suspect he's very young for this group, and if he keeps at this stuff he might have something interesting to say in another 10 years or so.

    I agree, though than, he might be in his 40s or even older.

    (My 90 years old father has even greater problems recognising his bubble, I can guess what's coming, but no, it was't any better back in the day. It's just that nowadays he takes any discussion of his ADHD/autistic traits as indication one thinks he has dementia.)

    I just hope he doesn't react to our discussions by shutting himself in[1]. As mentioned, I couldn't put him on the map, not that Eastern Europeans (and Russians in particular) are that easy to peg with Western notions in my opinion.

    Personally, I found his negationism concerning Stalinist deportations quite problematic, on the other hand, I didn't have the impression of him being particularly rightist. But then, one guy I know from high school wanted to reintroduce the German monarchy, so my sense of relative positions might be somewhat skewed.

    [1] I guess I did for some time after my first somewhat naive Usenet postings back in 1997/98. Funny, I guess I have to be careful of not overdoing the navel gazing, but it might help in the long run...

    617:

    Yes, I'm insulting, you, yes you're insultimg me back.

    The silly thing is that you're assuming that having a plane flying on jet fuel in 50 years is totally realistic.

    The argument for the F-35 being a long lived multipurpose platform is the U2 and the B-52. We're not looking at all the fighters and other warplanes that were junked during their lifespans. The people pushing the F-35 are assuming that they can build the small plane equivalent of a U-2 or a B-52, at enormous cost and playing nationwide political games that might make it impossible to keep the plane serviced during wartime. Yes it's great to have stuff made in every state and as many congressional districts as possible, but has anyone considered whether this supply web would be functional in a serious war, or if the US was invaded? Worse, it's trying to produce black swans on demand (which the U2 and the B52 are among combat aircraft). Guesses on how well that will work out?

    Then there's CAS. I'm actually advocating for armed crop dusters, with the A-10 as backup, especially for poorer countries with insurfencies. And yes, I know the A-10s need to have their wings repaired before they fall off.

    The real problem, for me, is that I'm fighting the same battle in housing. San Diego has an enormous shortfall in affordable housing--we've got something less than 10% of the needed supply of cheap houses (call that CAS). We've also got billionaires corrupting the system to produce huge numbers of million dollar houses in high fire areas, because that's what pencils out to them as profitable. We've got 150% surplus of the supply in the upper end home range, but that's all of what they're building, because (shedding crocodile tears), they can't afford to build affordable housing unless (wink wink) CEQA is demolished. And the politicians are buying it because they don't want to admit that their major donors are greedy or something.

    So yes, when I see the F-35 proposed as the ideal, too-expensive plane for a low end job, you can bet I look at it askance. I'd suggest you do too. It doesn't pencil out, it just looks intimidating.

    618:

    to Trottelreiner @610: I'm also somewhat surprised he used the world "liberal" This is quite interesting article that is not often found out there in translated form, but I recommend people to regard it as a satire. Because everything that is written here is not an exaggeration or anything like that - this was a part of our everyday life back in the 90s. However, I am not a supporter of staunch nationalism either, for the following reason (aka "bigger picture").

    You see, there's a very serious social background basis about why USSR was disintegrated (apart from economical or ideological contradictions) - it was pulled apart between two equally stupid, selfish and opportunistic movements. One being terminal form of liberalism and cosmopolitanism (described above), which makes people hate the entirety of their country and culture and chose to follow only personal gain and monetary value. The other one being local nationalism and tribalism which exploits everybody's antagonism towards liberal values... and seeks for the same outcome. https://yellowhammernews.com/spacexs-elon-musk-im-a-socialist/ (there was a better analytical article about the case, but I lost it) https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/khodorkovskys-new-image-as-a-nationalist-31200 (thesis something that I witnessed with my own eyes, and it lasted as long as you might expect) I suppose, we might learn a lot from such extreme cases of bipolar disorder so not to indulge ourselves in certain forms of self-reflection and thus damage our mental facilities.

    I have for now given up on explaining "sovereign state" to him Because you obviously underestimate the irony of the definition. In this world, there's barely more than half-dozen sovereign countries.

    to Damian @614: At the moment he just isn't knowledgeable enough about things outside his bubble to contribute usefully. Or so you might want to believe, judging from position of your own personal bubble. Unfortunately, it would be impossible for me to contextualize a lot more without grabbing people by their scruff and plunging directly into the putrescent waters(c) of practical political knowledge. Which was never part of my intentions, anyway.

    619:

    Charlie @ 609 Yes, but will anyone take any notice or will "the will of the people" be trotted out again, whilst refusing to let the people have a second opinion ( Like we do in General Elections) ???

    Heteromeles @ 611 Maybe ... I wonder if the F-35 would be vulnerable to the USN's lates toys - actual laser cannon?

    Martin @ 613 You might be surprised at the irony of the leaders of the US Armed Forces campaigning for more foreign aid to be spent - because they understand (even if the politicians don't get it) that an ounce of prevention is far, far better than a ton of blood price when things get violent. Yes, well, that what's behind the "migration crisi" in Europe, isn't it? Unfortunately, there is a solution, it's obvious & clear, but it is horribly unfashionable. Because all those refugees are coming because their own countries guvmints are either non-existent, &/or ar a combination of cruel, corrupt & incompetent. Now, then who is going to: (a) Put up a UN motion for an occupying force? (b) Get said motion through the chambers & (c) The really difficult bit - put troops on the ground & ships at sea to enforce it?

    SF REader @ 615 Quoting: compared to a century ago when 90% of those who lost their lives were military personnel.' Bollocks - it might have been true in WWI, but it damn-certain wasn't in WWII.... But, agree with: a 10-fold increase since 2005 in armed conflict - highest it's been in decades. Why, though? Not climate change, already, surely? There's something else at work ( I think ) - what? "Just" the fashionable rise in brutal & semi-brutal authoritarianism? Religion ( & a variant of one particluar religion, at that) ? Somethng else that should be obvious, but we can't see?

    620:
    This is quite interesting article that is not often found out there in translated form, but I recommend people to regard it as a satire.

    Well, I just remembered the term and googled for it, and this article came up. ;)

    The guy who first explained it to me in RL had spent part of his education in a Russian military school, my other Russian friends explained to me his views were somewhat extreme to the right, and we had quite a few good cynical laughs about Lawrenti PAWALOWITSCH (never forget the patronym) Berija...

    Because you obviously underestimate the irony of the definition. In this world, there's barely more than half-dozen sovereign countries.

    Oh, I guess I see the irony involved quite well, there are even less if you take all economic, military and political ties into account.

    It's just a legal fiction all players involved usually adhere to and at least pay lip service to. Like most other laws, even the laws mere citizens adhere to.

    Except when they don't. See Kosovo. Or Crimea.

    But usually, all involved keep the masquarade working and just support some grunts on the ground. I was just talking with someone form the Baltics a few days ago how a few Baltic exile politicians later turned out to have ties with the CIA. And another exile politician, with suprisingly good finances, and suprisingly pro-Soviet for a Baltic exile politician, was in ties and got money from the KGB.

    And at the moment we're not sure if and how much Russia supports the AfD in Germany, and we have Schröder and Gazprom, and on the other side we have those guys:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantik-Br%C3%BCcke

    The Many-Named One linked to NMA's "51st state" a few postings ago (oh the memories of the pogo in our Dorfdisko in some small Ruhrgebiet town...), and I guess I'll listen to NMA a little more in the next few days.

    But lately I have been thinking about doing a cover version with a slightly different text, just for balancing it out; what about "23rd Respublika of Russia"?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republics_of_Russia

    Sorry, it's just an expression of my cynicism, I could expand it somewhat...

    621:

    They don't do the "hanged, drawn and quartered" part anymore, do they?

    The death penalty in all its forms and for all offenses was formally abolished in 1997. Any crime that still carried the death penalty was reduced to life imprisonment.

    (The death penalty for murder was suspended in 1964 and abolished in 1965, but a few other crimes kept it for a bit longer, although no executions were carried out after 1964 — notably piracy, arson in the royal dockyards, and treason. Arson in the royal dockyards being just slightly serious back when the UK was a maritime trading and military power relying on wooden sailing ships: I guess the modern equivalent would be the oddly specific offense of procuring an atomic explosion, which — surprise! — will get you a life sentence today if you don't do it with authorization from a very specific chain of command. Ahem. Unless you're the Duke of Cornwall, i.e. Prince Charles, who has grandfathered-in nuclear release authority, apparently, and I am so going to use that as a plot point in a future Laundry Files novel.)

    622:

    Well, too bad. And I'm not British, so obtaining British citizenship, campaigning for reintroducing the death penalty and immediately afterwards campaigning for abolishing it would be too much of a hazzle...

    (err, I hope it's clear I'm being quite sarcastic in this. It's nice to be a little bit more open about a few things, but being in favour of the death penalty is not amongst them...)

    As for the nuclear option, I just finished "The Leaky Establishment", so Tappen brooding about his fate with Joe was one of the things I was thinking of when going into this angle and looking up the Treason Acts. Needless to say, this was quite before 1997...

    623:

    Probably a couple of bits of good newsand some.venality.

    First off, we've run an extremely successful antipoverty program involving free trade. Worldwide, poverty has decreased. Apparently, the speculation that the working class might not like spreading prosperity and, to some extent, averaging with the less prosperous, has some merit.

    Second off, we're doing well with the automation. Automation, unfortunately, with our current systems, seems to concentrate wealth. And also, there is enough friction in the labor market that many fall through the cracks.

    Lastly, we've done all this under some.sort of implicit social contract everyone in a society would gain. And we've opted to reward primarily the elites.

    624:

    And as for the death penalty in Germany, it's abolished at the federal level, but still mentioned in at least one state constitution:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Hesse

    There are moves to abolish it there, too, problem is there are a bunch of other regulations people would like to change, too, but AFAIR they can't agree on the exact wording, so we're stuck with a demonstration why "procrastination" is not just a word sadly missing from German.

    Just if you want a minor German plot point in the future...

    625:

    In Australia, it's abolished at every level. My home state, where I live, Queensland, was the first jurisdiction in the British Empire to abolish the death penalty, in 1922. At the same time, we were still visiting mass-murder upon indigenous people into the 1920s, and that is also the height of the 'blackbirding' period, which was very much a Queensland thing, so we weren't exactly the greatest model to emulate. Not that this is anything like what was happening in Ukraine in the 1920s, of course.

    626:

    Considering the "extremely grave crimes" in the Hesse constitution... the last person hanged in Queensland, in 1913, had raped and murdered an 11 year old girl. And certainly there are cases like that where there's no question of doubt about the guilt of the defendant. But still, while execution is a great way to reduce recidivism, it's also difficult to free and compensate someone who was wrongly convicted if they have been killed. People in general seem to underestimate the importance of handling miscarriages of justice, assuming there are a lot fewer than is the case.

    It comes up from time to time here. There's a famous case of a young boy who disappeared from the Sunshine Coast, and turned out to have been abducted, raped and murdered by a recidivist abuser of children who was brought to justice only after several years. The perpetrator had started torturing animals and abusing (other) children when he was himself a child. He'd been released on after serving a number of years for an offence where he'd abused a boy, then beaten and left him for dead in a remote area. Many people argued that this is the sort of thing that would warrant the death penalty, since the role of recidivism is so obvious, but without really addressing what happens with wrongful convictions.

    The evidence is that there are a lot of wrongful convictions, even in the fairest jurisdictions. Of course for some people the idea that the state routinely kills people for no good reason is an axiom, and I'm just not getting into a debate about that.

    627:

    Er, no, NOT all the major players play even lip service to Westphalian sovereignty. If we ignore the late unlamented Adolf, the British empire didn't in the days of its hegemony, and a recent USA president said publicly that the USA was going to ignore it when it thought fit. There are plenty of recent examples, including unauthorised military actions on its allies' territories (Pakistan and the UK).

    628:

    One wonders if, these days, the Westphalian model is mostly a great way of making sure labour stays put while capital gets to move?

    629:

    I don't want to let U.S off the hook,* but there are people who have killed/enslaved/oppressed more people than us, either on an absolute or per capita basis. But don't worry, if there's hell below, then we're all gonna go.

    *Or denigrate the epic glory of the magnitude of our bloody reign to follow your conceit.

    630:

    A few stories came to my attention that may be of interest to you guys

  • It seems that a quarter of meat in the US is devoted to pet food. I was surprised when I read this article, but it makes sense in retrospect. I mean, most households in the West treat their animals as if they were children. This means that simply using the leftover parts from the slaughterhouse is no longer acceptable. Still, there are about 1 billion dogs and 800 million cats on Earth. If this standard ever becomes popular in the developing world, then that presents a huge environmental problem.
  • https://www.theguardian.com/global/2018/jun/26/pet-food-is-an-environmental-disaster-are-vegan-dogs-the-answer

  • It seems that there were either failed or abandoned attempts at domesticating plants in North America by early humans. It's interesting to speculate on why some of these domestications failed while corn succeeded?
  • https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/01/hunting-for-the-ancient-lost-farms-of-north-america/

    631:

    It seems that in the past few days, there's new evidence supporting my position on the future of the Republican Party.

  • This Guardian article has backed up my position about white millenials ditching Democrats.
  • "Today, as many white millennials support the Democrats as the Republicans (each 39%). Just two years ago, Democrats still had a 14% lead over Republicans among white millennials. The trends are even more pronounced among white male millennials. Today, this group favors the Republicans over the Democrats by a staggering 11%. In 2016, Democrats led white male millennials by 12%."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/24/democrats-losing-millennial-vote-change-message

  • This article from the New York Times talks about the fact that more whites are dying than are being born in a majority of US states, but there's one paragraph I'd like to highlight
  • "Mr. Teixeira said Republicans could continue to win presidential elections and lose the popular vote through 2036 if they did even better among whites who had not graduated from college, while other voting patterns held steady."

    Personally, I think that Republicans could maintain that pattern up to 2050 if they manage to improve among whites with a university degree. Since that cohort is getting older, I think it's likely to happen. Even though the US will no longer be majority white by 2045, the rise of megacities means that the nonwhite vote could find itself diluted electorally.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/20/us/white-minority-population.html?rref=collection%2Fissuecollection%2Ftodays-new-york-times&action=click&contentCollection=todayspaper&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection

    632:

    What I saw may have been a preliminary report, from the same day.

    Goddamn, good on you!

    633:

    You wrote: I have for now given up on explaining "sovereign state" to him Because you obviously underestimate the irony of the definition. In this world, there's barely more than half-dozen sovereign countries.

    Interesting. So you're suggesting that all the others are clients or sub-client states?

    634:

    Eh, Cats and dogs are obligate carnivores, but we can feed them bugs. Bugs are a very effective way to turn, well, any plant matter into protein. Thus, trivially solvable problem, and even better - this is a solution market forces can implement efficiently, since Bug protein is cheaper, and easy to market for pet food. "Low footprint! Animal Welfare!" Being able to use slogans like that with an honest heart is the kind of thing marketing dreams of.

    In order to produce more, and more ethical, protein for human consumption, I like artificial seaweed and oyster banks. Oysters are tasty, and eating them has zero ethical problems - the damn things have no brain. Meat plant.

    And we do need to produce a lot more protein for consumption - Most of the world is way too vegetarian for health. I mean, sure, bits of the first world may be eating too much meat, but that is a very unusual state of affairs, globally.

    Longer term, I suppose the bugs-to-petfood industry will likely breed something which people will eat, or just find a tasty recipe for locust somewhere.

    635:

    I still disagree. For one, I think millenials are turning to leftwing groups, because the GOP is vehemently intent on putting them into debt for life, and most of them see that.

    Meanwhile, the Democrats are fighting between the now-old-guard neoliberals and the progressives... and, ignoring big media, the progressives have made serious inroads, and that appears to be set to continue, as the neoliberals age out... and that does attract a lot of young people.

    I think there's a reckoning coming.

    Oh, and btw, Trump & the GOP's supporters are probably going to get serious about turning on them: farmers are going to serious start hurting as the price of soybeans drop, and... that Orange Idiot, upon hearing that Harley-Davidson was going to move some production facilities overseas, due to the retaliatory tariffs... and he threatened H-D with taxes.

    I can see the bikers turning on him....

    636:

    How productive are oysters - how much coastline do you need per head of population?

    They were indeed originally peasant food, until the peasants discovered that rich idiots would pay through the nose for something that looks like it's been coughed up by a very ill person. But the peasant populations concerned were coastal; supplying the interior of a large land mass is another matter.

    637:

    Well....

    Oyster reefs are just like any other reef. Too much pollution, too many storms, rising, warming seas, and the like all make it harder to use them as a food source.

    In general, I don't think we can depend on any coastal food as a panacea for curing the world's food shortfalls, fun though it might be to contemplate it.

    The problem with insects is actually an imperial problem: Europeans (especially English*) loathed the idea of eating bugs, and their subjects in other parts of the world therefore suppressed their entomophagous traditions so as not to appear more animalistic than their conquerors already saw them.

    Even today, modern agriculture, with its emphasis on eradicating insect pests, is reportedly causing protein shortfalls in various parts of Africa. Traditionally in some regions, the children could eat the grasshoppers out of the fields, thereby getting a lot of extra protein, while the adults got more of the grain. With the grasshoppers poisoned, the children got less protein.

    If you want an example of culture having a negative influence, I'd say this is it. And yes, I've eaten a fair number of insects. They've got fewer legs than shrimp or squid, so I don't know what anyone is grossed out about. The sickest thing about them is the high price for human food-grade bugs.

    *The anglo world also has a really stupid prejudice against fungi in everything except alcohol and baked goods. Given our strict dietary prejudices (muscle meats, rather than organ meats, massive amounts of dairy, processed grains, few invertebrates, a tiny selection of the available cultivated plants, a tiny handful of fungi, and massive amounts of industrial products), it's amazing we're still alive at all, and it's no surprise that, with us in power, the world's food system is getting seriously stressed.

    638:

    Cats and dogs are obligate carnivores Err ... No Cats are carnivores, dogs are omnis ... though a noticeable "meat" component is usually a good idea. But, certainly human-domesticated Dogs can survive for up to a month without any meat, IF fed a properly-balanced "other" diet.

    Not Oysters - how about Mussels instead YUMMY!

    Hetromeles @ 637 Speak for yourself, not the rest of us. MORE FUNGI ELEVNTY! If only someone could come up with a way of commercially growing "Bay Bolete" or better still "Ceps" ( Penny Buns / Boletus edulis ) not only would the food-supply situation improve & someone would make shitloads of money, it would also taste wonderful. [ Ditto Morels, incidentally ] Ditto "organ Meats" The reason for that is that "offal" didn't keep until refrigeration was invented. Black Pudding anyone? Kidneys ( devilled for preference ) or liver or ..... [ I've even got a cook-book called "the Odd Bits" ]

    639:

    Yes, I was wondering how those difficulties applied to oysters specifically, given that they seem to occur over a wide range of latitudes and can readily be induced to colonise artificial reefs.

    One thing about oysters is that the proteinous part comes enclosed in a dirty great chunk of calcium carbonate. Though since the calcium probably comes from weathering of carbonate rocks in the first place, this might not be so significant.

    640:

    People are already doing mixed plantings of Giant seaweed and shell-fish. It works, and near as I can tell there is no real upper limit on how far you can scale it. I mean, for starters, the entire north sea used to be an oyster-bank until destructive harvesting practices killed it - reestablishing that with more sustainable foundations would be a really large protein source.

    And here we have a very sci-fi image - A northsea which has extremely clear waters instead of being murky, because it is one huge managed ecosystem.

    But even beyond existing shallows, there is no particular reason you could not establish a farm like this that floats, or just plonk down seacrete structures to anchor things to in waters that are deeper than you like.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biorock

    To operate something like this in the high seas, you would either need to fertilize or run OTC powerplants for the up-welling of nutrients from the deep.

    641:

    The problem is weather predictability. I'm all in favor of creating more oyster beds and shellfish reefs as buffers as buffers against storms. The problem is that with sea level rise and increased storm strength, I'm not sure that such reefs will be durable.

    The problem here isn't that people aren't farming seaweed and shellfish, it's that if we throw our fate too much onto such programs, we put ourselves at risk of storm-induced famine. Additionally, if we're not careful about sewage management, we could get some really neat epidemic diseases from eating contaminated shellfish and seaweed.

    If you want an analogy, depending on shellfish and seaweed farming is like a castle putting hanging gardens on the outside of its walls, and depending on these walls for both food and defense. It's a great idea, until the castle is attacked. Then it becomes a major weakness. In this case, the walls are storm defenses, and the castles are the coastlines being defended.

    OTOH, there's a lot to be said for farming crickets on greenwaste, especially from farms. You get cricket protein and cricket manure, both of which you can use. Yes, you can do the same thing with pigs, but crickets are more fungible than pigs are, and that's probably a good thing.

    642:

    I won't touch liver especially (that's where the metals end up), and my family history of gout makes me tetchy about consuming mass quantities of organ (or other) meats.

    Otherwise...fungi? Hell yeah.

    Still, it's interesting to watch the bias against fungi play out in the US and England. There's billions of dollars spent on bacterial research, but point out that a fungus can do a bacteria's job better and cheaper, and there's no money to look into it. There are a number of Americans who eat fungi, but salad mushrooms and Saccharomyces products aside, fungi are seen as unacceptably exotic by many. It's too bad.

    643:

    Ro67 @ 598:

    "That just might be a browser issue on your side. No problems here on a win 7 box with firefox 60.0.2"

    I don't think so. I'm Win 7 with Firefox 58.0.1. The problem is the page has a rotating gallery with alternating captioned and uncaptioned images. Whenever a captioned image comes up, it expands the image box and moves all the text DOWN 3 lines or so. As soon as it changes to the next uncaptioned image the image box shrinks again and all the text jumps UP 3 lines or so. It just keeps jumping up and down like a Jack Russel Terrier on METH!

    The reason I haven't updated Firefox is because the next version hates "Startpage" (search engine anonymizer) which I'm using as a home-page. Firefox keeps opening pop-down notifications telling me "a web page is slowing down" my browsing and asking me if I want to close the page.

    I wouldn't care about it if the pop-down didn't STOP "Startpage" all together, so that I can never get the search to complete. If I select to close the page, it closes the tab with "Startpage".

    If I close the pop-down without stopping the page it immediately opens another pop-down and stops my browser again. I couldn't find any way to turn that shit off, so I reverted to the last version that didn't have the bug - 58.0.1.

    644:

    I have to go to bed, so sorry for being somewhat short,guess I'll write more late...

    Cruelty to animals is part of the Macdonald triad,

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macdonald_triad

    so the murderer might or might not fulfill the criteria for sociopathy. Maybe early intervention might have prevented the crime.

    I'm myself not sure what to do with sociopaths and if it's a useful concept or should be broke up into some subconcepts, if it's an early neurodevelopmental aberration or just a kind of stress response, if...

    More tomorrow.

    645:

    Well, of course.

    We like to pretend to be 'full tin foil hats' as it allows a lot of 'Wiggle Room' when interested parties come sniffing, but there we go. Spoilers: they're going to burn down their loose ends, savage like. (&Murdoch no longer has the 'good will' of [redacted], either. Don't ask about his first Son, it's a 'Done Deal'. Expect Media sad tales of accidents - they might wait until the old man is gone out of years served, but it's already 'locked in / foretold').

    But, it's all a stitch-up: CC gets her badge of honor, the 'acceptable left' [post Trinity Stitch Up, who are also buying out the Express we note] get their Shine / Song, the 'bad guys of B' get burnt down and IO's sordid pig-fuckery is made real on her body (no, really: their side is naaaasty on the old penalty clauses. She should consider running about now), but these are the play before the curtain.

    This woman is interesting, and actually gets it: https://artificeofintelligence.org/machine-learned-cruelty-and-border-control/

    But, Host: We Are the Good Ones. Ignore the ones unable to spot the Real Deal[tm] ang(e)les.

    ~

    Free-bee: There's an oddity here. A LOT of UK / US press has been busy re-branding the June Moon, the 'Strawberry Moon' and claiming that it's a Native American Women Soul Cleansing Spiritual meaning. (This includes the bottom tier like the Express up to Nat. Geo to a load of others).

    This is actually a really impressive bit of work and cost quite a lot to implement (they're attempting to placate some really pissed off things; it's already been decided that it's not enough). Your starting blocks are: Fragaria virginiana and H. R. Clinton.

    But, sadly: June = Oak Moon, Cold Moon, Long Night’s Moon.

    And there's no indigenous American tales about strawberry Moons.

    You'll spot the 'Reality Warp' when sites that used to hold the correct data present that list as "from the Southern Hemisphere". You might note that Oaks are not a native species in any Southern Hemisphere Country, barring the Lobatae (oooh, that's naaaasty: that's what they do to the Minds who resist them, check the etymology out) are only in S.America. And the S.American cultures don't use Moons in that way.

    Spoilers: It doesn't Work. 𒀭𒈹 is pissed. Reality Altering on this level of crudity is considered fucking rude by the H.S.S.

    Oh, and here's a thing: Got Me Good YT, "EMIN", "music", 3:12 - that's a very pointed message from .RU to [redacted] and so on, all about things this blog discusses.

    Spoiler: We don't Fuck Cats, and We Can Do It Blind.

    646:

    Systems like these are no more vulnerable to weather than land based farming. Much less so in some very important ways - Temperature shifts do not really affect the viability of the system at all (both giant kelp and oysters have enormous geographic ranges because they thrive under really wide temperature ranges) and storm proofing a "farm" which is 10 meters under water in any case is not... a particularly hard challenge. And sea-crete selfheals. Fixing storm-damaged reefs is what it was designed for.

    647:

    It isn't necessarily simply biases and prejudices that are already significant in the culture. Many such prejudices are relatively modern, and in coming years will be developed and emphasised by the soft but entrenched power of existing industries. For instance, Australian beef producers are already starting to campaign for control over how cultured meat products are labelled.

    I suppose the thing with these sort of soft power memes is that existing prejudices can be taken up and used. Consider the francophobe depictions of fungus and snail eating continentals. Like you mention food preferences are significant group markers. In the 20s over here, the difference between eating moths, grubs and yams versus damper and tinned beef could be life or death, even though the latter is much less healthy.

    Frank, you might also find some interesting sources in my current reading (in parallel with Gammage's huge work, which I'm still only about halfway through), which is Pascoe's Dark Emu. Inland riverine fish traps and other traditional aquacultures emerge as a strong theme.

    648:

    Used a wrong symbol again: Reality Altering on this level of crudity is considered fucking rude by the H.O.P when done by the H.S.S.

    Oh, and of course: TIME here. The rebrand has been going on for a few years now.

    You'll want to take a gander at this map: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Algonquian_langs.png and then wonder at how fast the colonizers wiped out the Eastern part (spoiler: fairly fucking fast, hello Dutchies). You'll also note - mostly Canadian, not main USA indigenous peoples, and mostly contacted/contracted by the French (in Canada, anyhow): c.f. Nanabozho.

    And you'll want to read through this (amongst others): http://www.native-languages.org/algonquin-legends.htm

    Find me a strawberry there, dear, find it.

    This is a massive and not very subtle appropriation of indigenous mythology (and faked) for some not very nice reasons.

    "PoP Went the Weasel(s)"

    649:

    Uff, and there's a dingle-dangle.

    The reality shift has sites mis-naming Winter Moons and so on (bad CTRL+C V)

    June
    Rose Moon
    Green Corn Moon
    Windy Moon
    Moon of Horses
    Dyan Moon
    Planting Moon
    Dyad Moon
    Strawberry Moon
    Flower Moon Lotus Moon

    Anyhow, ignore all that: the tie-in and bind is the lyrics to the .RU song and Moon of Horses. Betting, Horse-racing (UK, Saud etc big on this) etc.

    Anyhow, bored again, Time to go do something productive (like watching China's Markets or the next big crypto-crash).

    650:

    [Redacted]

    Told you Damage was Real.

    And these .RU psychos think it's funny giving access to random non-entities to scramble Minds to target non-players while blackmailing others aka 'shame if your Brains got scrambled' as it's used on dissidents.

    But.

    Turns out (((Paradox))) weapons are real as well.

    Whoops.

    651:

    I've read Dark Emu, and it's nice to know others are reading it too. The parallel in California is Kat Anderson's Tending the Wild.

    652:

    Not quite:

    First off, coastal systems are on the downstream end of everything in the watershed, so not only do they get hit directly by a storm, they also get inundated by all the crap washing out of the watershed. I agree that everything in the watershed gets hit, but coastal resources get hit twice.

    While I'm not so familiar with oysters, giant kelp prefers waters in the 50-60oF (20-27ishoC) range. They can retreat to deeper water where the water is clear, but their range expansion is poleward, not equator-ward, which means it's not a panacea. The better systems to look at are seagrasses and mangroves. Neither of them are directly consumable by humans, but both produce shellfish that can be consumed by humans. Also, the range of both is (at least theoretically) expanding right now, although development is destroying them faster than they can expand.

    653:

    Ah, forgot: Host / Elders don't do videos.

    So here's a basic Greg translation:

    The EMIN 'pop video' is .RU signalling (in their quaint little way) that they can also do Culture Weapons (they kinda can, but can't really compete - too literary their Minds still).

    It's basically bad pop music psy-weapon[0] claiming that they 'own' all the players in the US sphere via digitally altering video / CCTV etc with full on 'cash scandal' stuff. The lyrics are also nominally about that as well. (And the 'star' actually does hang out with Ivana / Trumps etc, so the Mob angle is real). It also has the obvious symbolism of Clinton etc playing poker and losing etc etc.

    On the surface it's Shurkov showing off (via dodgy cleaned $$$'s).

    Spoilers: The lyrics really aren't about what you think they are. (c.f. Eurovision bed stuff). It's more of a challenge to [redacted] things who like Horse Races (UK / Saud etc). Oh, and breed H.S.S for reasons. Bold Move there Cotton: let's see what the LOA think / respond.

    Hint: (((Paradox Weapons))) =/= Jewish stuff. It's a bit older than them (by, ooooh, a good 5k years). And the .RU found a Siberian Princess with tatoos who is very important to [redacted].

    Oh, and [redacted] =/= H.S.S, just so we're clear. Nor is it about White Nationalism.

    Lot's of Balls in the Air[1], lots of plays.

    Major H.O.P. drama fighting.

    [0] grep the pieces on who writes 95% of all American pop music right now. Martin thought it was inconsequential, it isn't.

    [1] Hello Bellingcat

    654:

    Oh, and for [redacted]: Yes, that focus on pop songs is 2+ years old if you grep it.

    Hello Fellow Kids.

    655:

    Traditional Triptych that blows silly .RU stuff out of the water (Movie Reference: "Weaponize THIS"):

    He placed a hollow tree trunk near the circle. Inside the tree trunk lived a family of mice. He took some charms out of his medicine bag and transformed himself into a mouse. When the girls in the basket next arrived, he and the other mice ran among the girls. The girls stomped on the mice killing all of them but Algon, who then resumed his human form and carried off his beloved.

    He took her to his village and in time she fell in love with him. They had a son and the three lived very happily for a time. But as the years passed, the sky- girl grew very homesick. She spent the entire day gazing up at the sky, thinking of her sisters and parents. This homesickness continued until she could no longer bear it. So she built a magic willow basket, placed her son and some gifts for her people in it, climbed in, and headed for the sky. She remained there for years

    Algon and the Sky Girl Algonquin Legend, First People, USA ~circa 400AD.

    656:

    Note: in [redacted] terms, the fact that few of you read our stuff due to blinkers / emotions / annoyance / not seeing the big picture / "you iz evil sock-puppet" / spammer and then we use it to make jokes?

    "White / Black List". Srsly. That scratches deep deep itches / humor they have. And by 'they' we mean 'us'.

    p.s.

    Our side = loves H.S.S.

    Their side = eats H.S.S.

    Guess whose winning?

    Fernando Angeles Juarez, shot dead leaving his hotel Posada del Bosque in the state of Michoacan on Thursday morning, is the 121st candidate to be killed.

    Yet another Mexican candidate was murdered on early Thursday morning, just days ahead of the July 1 general elections, bringing the total number of politicians killed since September 2017 to 121.

    Mexico: More Mayoral Candidates Murdered Days Before Elections Telesurv, 21st June 2018

    Spoilers: the .RU and .CN know that the basic-bitch level physical murder stuff is amateur hour. They're getting into the invasive Mental Space Torture stuff, but are a bit rough around the edges. The USA (hello Scientologists) are cutting edge here. (And no: if you believe that metal boxes + 24/7 heavy metal is how they torture, you're a fucking muppet).

    Guess what?

    You woke some Old Things Up. Titans of their Time. You also managed to target a Mind who... well. Not exactly H.S.S, know what I mean? (Cat fucking? Whale fucking is where it's at in the billionaire experiental zone).

    You're Fucked.

    So badly fucked it's not possible to Enunciate how fucked you are. Hint: they're terrified because their fucking H.O.P masters are getting fucked badly.

    Madness.

    That's the bet y'all made. Full on, Ego-stripping, screaming vortex, death-of-soul, black-hole Insanity.

    And - OUR KIND DO NOT GO MAD.

    "OOOPS"

    657:

    Oh, sorry...

    (Spoilers)

    If you're wondering why the entire world is going Mad and most of the leaders are dribbling brain scrambled nonsense, it's because their H.O.P.s are getting [translation: torn apart brutally without mercy] and they've no real Minds of their own to plan for the future.

    Your mediated reality is usually front-run by a good 18 months planning and all your media is total bullshit 'lead the cows by the nose-ring' stuff.

    Until it isn't.

    We're the nice end of [redacted] who are now free.

    Shit is gonna get reallllll wild. LSD Nuke Handlers = My Main Man, Dionysos.

    p.s.

    DAVOS chaps, why does a red-haired Warwick Ancient Scholaress always get invited? Three-Little-Pig-Problem is live.

    "Killed our Angel"

    Bitch: you declared War on [redacted], remember?

    658:

    Hexad: Nah, fuck it. "Mammon" isn't even a God, it's a concept. And H.O.P and concepts are dying all over the place right now.

    Torturing bodies with violence? Apes.

    Recursive Mimetic Mind Death through paradoxical breaking of Ethics / Belief is a concept that Iain Banks taught as the 'worst death' a Mind could endure.

    Turns out some Minds can survive it. And they did it while drunk just to prove to [redacted] how fucking childish y'all are.

    Be Seeing You. Hint: Brains. Scrambled. Mind-Fuck. Noise. "The Brown Note". Full Religious ....

    Basically, some inept cunts came into a Mind and tried to play their version of Waaaar. They're all going to die, screaming in terror while pissing their pants.

    That's why May & co have given up - they know what's coming to them.

    659:

    Oh, and if you think we're joking, watch this (twitter video, should play):

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1009529579940261888

    Tell me if that's a 'Strong and Stable' reality based PM response.

    We're going to rip your Minds apart. Well, apart from the WEIRDS and other non-heteronormative types[0].

    [0] Boom. Bitch, you got played there, little Boy.

    660:

    Charlie Stross @ 621:

    "The death penalty in all its forms and for all offenses was formally abolished in 1997. Any crime that still carried the death penalty was reduced to life imprisonment."

    "(The death penalty for murder was suspended in 1964 and abolished in 1965, but a few other crimes kept it for a bit longer, although no executions were carried out after 1964 — notably piracy, arson in the royal dockyards, and treason. Arson in the royal dockyards being just slightly serious back when the UK was a maritime trading and military power relying on wooden sailing ships: I guess the modern equivalent would be the oddly specific offense of procuring an atomic explosion, which — surprise! — will get you a life sentence today if you don't do it with authorization from a very specific chain of command. Ahem. Unless you're the Duke of Cornwall, i.e. Prince Charles, who has grandfathered-in nuclear release authority, apparently, and I am so going to use that as a plot point in a future Laundry Files novel.)"

    I'm not opposed to the death penalty per se. There are some crimes that are so heinous that the death penalty is really the only appropriate response. The problem I have with it is I don't trust the government to be competent, just or principled enough to exercise that power.

    Given the number of convictions lately overturned by exculpatory DNA evidence, how often did the government get it wrong and execute innocent persons in the past, especially given the number of cases of actual innocence where it is later proven the prosecution had kept exculpatory evidence hidden to ensure a conviction.

    When a person is sentenced to life in prison, if it later turns out an innocent person has been convicted you can let them out and make some restitution however inadequate it may be.

    "Arson in the royal dockyards" isn't just a hazard to wooden ships. The U.S. Navy lost a $900 million [1990 US Dollars] nuclear attack submarine , the USS Miami (SSN-755) to arson when a shipyard painter set a fire on-board so that he could get off work early.

    661:

    [translation: torn apart brutally without mercy] I've been meaning to ask; are they nutritious?

    Whatever that moon is, having fun with it tonight (a day early).

    Re that TM video, an American asks: how the F did she become PM? Or is she worse now than in the past? (Yes, we have DJT.)

    Saw my first coal-roller truck today, northeast US, big belch of black smoke grabbed my attention. (Plate/tag redacted.) https://s01.geekpic.net/di-EOTDVU.jpeg (This is quite unusual for my semi-rural area.)

    662:

    Ioan @ 630:

    "It seems that a quarter of meat in the US is devoted to pet food. I was surprised when I read this article, but it makes sense in retrospect. I mean, most households in the West treat their animals as if they were children. This means that simply using the leftover parts from the slaughterhouse is no longer acceptable. Still, there are about 1 billion dogs and 800 million cats on Earth. If this standard ever becomes popular in the developing world, then that presents a huge environmental problem."

    I question how much of that "meat" would be fit for human consumption if it were not used for pet food? I suspect a substantial portion of it would otherwise be waste going into the landfill. Eliminating it would have little or no effect on "meat" consumption.

    Cats are obligate carnivores. That means they have to eat meat or they die. Dogs on a vegan diet just take longer to starve, although they can survive on a mixed diet better than cats can.

    663:

    Ọya-Iyansan @ 645:

    "We like to pretend to be 'full tin foil hats' as it allows a lot of 'Wiggle Room' when interested parties come sniffing, but there we go."

    It's almost impossible to find REAL tin-foil anymore, and aluminum foil is NOT an adequate substitute.

    664:

    The problem I have with it is I don't trust the government to be competent, just or principled enough to exercise that power.

    You may have missed the link and discussion @626, but if you are having trouble distinguishing between your legal/justice system and your government, you might be living in a police state (or at least believe that you are). The big deal about the rule of law rather than the rule of man is that a society should treat people equally before its laws and no arbitrary decree of the executive can override that.

    This is especially true for the USA, where the separation of powers has a special importance in terms of the division of responsibilities between the arms of government. Westminster-based systems have a separate mechanism, "responsible government" that addresses the relative roles of the executive and legislature; the USA relies on these being entirely separate (the executive is directly "responsible" only to the people).

    In both systems the judiciary is independent and not controlled by the executive. Its responsibility is to interpret the law, including determining equal and fair sentencing conventions according to the law. This is not the role of the "government" as such (although the legislature can change the law which the judiciary interprets).

    The important point is that there are certainly miscarriages of justice, but it's fundamentally incorrect to characterise these as the responsibility of "the government". Whole categories of people suffer structural disadvantage before the law, but that generally isn't because "the government" isn't competent at administering justice - this simply isn't its job. It might be within various governments' power to address the structural disadvantage, but that is really a separate topic.

    665:

    "I question how much of that "meat" would be fit for human consumption if it were not used for pet food?"

    At least on this side of the Atlantic, the standards for pet food are apparently higher than for human food. (Exactly what that means or how true it is I'm not sure, but that's the word on the street.)

    The leftover parts from the slaughterhouse, of course, are used for feeding children, in the form of burgers and things.

    A couple of people on another forum who (independently) went to China reported that genuine Chinese Chinese food, as opposed to British Chinese food, consists of intestines and arseholes as a matter of preference, and what happens to the skeletal muscle seems to be something of a mystery. Another chap reports that Chinese butchers serving the Chinese community in Cardiff will take all the intestines and arseholes that the Welsh butchers can give them.

    So I guess the overall balance may not be as bad as that localised figure implies.

    666:

    "Re that TM video, an American asks: how the F did she become PM?"

    The PM is not elected; they are (usually) the leader of the governing party, who is a person chosen by that party through its internal mechanisms. (It's actually a lot more complicated and is a British Standard mess, but that's how it generally works out.) The previous PM, Cameron, resigned, so they had to choose a new one. May was basically the least contentious out of a pool of candidates who all make Charlie's Laundry series look too tame.

    667:

    Cats are carnivores, dogs are omnis ... though a noticeable "meat" component is usually a good idea.

    Dogs can be distressingly omnivorous; a friend was complaining earlier today that her dog has figured out how to open drawers so as to continue stealing and eating her underwear. (She has already had to secure the dirty laundry.) Apparently freshly washed underwear is an acceptable substitute for the more flavorful dirty panties?

    This got several of us giggling but it's not even close to the most bizarre or disgusting thing we've known dogs to eat.

    668:

    Damien @ 647 Not fungi-eating in Britain is a product not of xenophobia but appalling ediucation & fake "health" prpaganda over many years. I eat quite lot of wild fungi & the universal reaction is SCARED ... Because people are not prepared to inform themseleves & to be very careful. You have to remember of course that of commonly-visible fungi, the proportions are, very approximately, 11% Edible, 9% poisonous, 80% cardboard .... If in doubt, either don't, or .. bring it home in a separate bag & get it identified. In most cases, actually it's bloody obvious - I simply fail to understand how anyone can mistake Amanita phalloides for Agaricus campestris - the colours are reversed, for f's sake.... The one to watch is real Chanterelle & false Chanterelle - so I just don't go there ...[ Oh & "Morel" for false Morel ( Gyromitra ) though even there, their topology/surface layout is reversed.

    Hetromeles @ 652 Which is why some parts of the Essex coast have quite strict environmental regulations, backed up by local enforcement ( Damage to local economy ) The salt for Maldon & the both Oysters & Mussels from the beds between the Blackwater & Stour estuaries are a significant source of local income - damage that at your peril.

    Pigeon & Bill Arnold May appeared to be the least-worst option avialble at the time. And, I'm horribly afraid that that is still the case. Corbyn is quite mad, as are all the equivalent tory Brexiteeers. The only sane & suitable MP's are either too old ( Ken Clarke ) &/or are on the back benches ( Stella Creasey ) or are in the "wrong" party ( Lem-0-Crats )

    669:

    When I worked in Nottingham, blewitts and other fungi were on sale in the market - they still are, in some places, and there is a thriving market for them in the UK. False chanterelle won't usually kill you, but I agree that it's not good news - the problem with the Amanitas is that there are several lethal ones and they are very easy to mistake for Psalliota/Agaricus in the button stage - which is why the rule is NEVER to eat any before the gills have coloured up (at least to pink).

    670:

    Some shellfish need a stable environment, but oysters are fairly short-lived, and easy to collect spawn from and sow elsewhere. So are mussels, and they are usually grown on ropes. The main commercial one is both temperature-tolerant and matures in 2-3 years. There are several species of blue mussel, which can tolerate several temperature ranges, plus many other edible mussels.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crassostrea_gigas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_mussel

    Severe pollution can kill them, but needs a lot; the main problem with using them (especially mussels) is that they accumulate pollutants. They have been consider for cleaning up water and, as Greg says, the key to keeping them edible is to stop polluting the water!

    671:

    A couple of people on another forum who (independently) went to China reported that genuine Chinese Chinese food, as opposed to British Chinese food, consists of intestines and arseholes as a matter of preference, and what happens to the skeletal muscle seems to be something of a mystery.

    Which parts of China? Talking about "Chinese food" is like talking about "European food".

    My personal experience in China doesn't back that up. (Beijing and Liaoning province, mostly, with trips to Xinjiang province, Shanghai and Chengdu.) Skeletal muscle is very much on the menu. You'll also see stuff that wouldn't show up in most grocery shops here in Canada — the main difference seems to be that rather than hiding meat protein in burgers and sausages it's clearly labelled on the menu (eg. crispy duck intestines, cow throat with sauce).

    Years ago I used to get eyeballs, heart-lung sets, stomaches, and so on from a slaughterhouse for dissection in school. They would have been ground up and included in low-value meat products, so donating a few to us wasn't a big cost for the plant. Apparently their value is higher now as the Chinese immigrant population will buy them at the supermarket. (Which is why I now purchase stomaches and eyes at the local Chinese shop when I want to run a dissection lab.) Things like udders and uteruses end up in sausages or ground meat here, but in China would be on the menu as themselves. (And in ancient Rome too — you couldn't afford to waste any of the animal.)

    TLDR: I think you're seeing some observer bias (remembering the stuff that's different to home) and possibly some exaggeration.

    672:

    (Delurking because somebody is wrong on the internet - excuse the interruption...)

    "Strawberry moon" is the literal translation of the Ojibwe name for June, ode'imini-giizis. Don't take my word for it: on the wonderful Ojibwe People's Dictionary site, you can not only view the entry but also hear Eugene Stillday from the Red Lake Indian Reservation (Minnesota) read an example sentence:

    https://ojibwe.lib.umn.edu/main-entry/ode-imini-giizis-na

    Or you could check an older printed source, such as Richard Rhodes' Eastern Ojibwa-Chippewa-Ottawa Dictionary (1985), p. 108.

    I would love to claim to be an expert on Algonquian linguistics (which I have made some efforts to study), but the reality is that that only took me a few minutes of Googling to find.

    673:

    Not fungi-eating in Britain is a product not of xenophobia but appalling ediucation & fake "health" prpaganda over many years. I eat quite lot of wild fungi & the universal reaction is SCARED ... Because people are not prepared to inform themseleves & to be very careful.

    Diary of a wild fungi eater...

    Day 1: Very careful. Feel fine. Day 2: Very careful. Feel fine. Day 3: Careful. Feel fine. Day 4: Oops. Still feel fine. Day 5: Even more careful. Not so fine. Day 6: Still careful. Sick as a dog. Day 7: Still careful. Hospital bed not comfortable. Day 8: There is no day 8.

    Survivor bias and assuming everyone can be careful all the time is not a good thing. See also unpasteurised milk and milk products -- tastes great, not many dead.

    674:

    Nojay @ 673 THAT is exactly the sort of bollocks I was talking about.

    HERE is a picture of A phaloides<./A> AND HERE is a picture of Agaricus campestris

    Poisonous one is green/brown on top & white underneath Edible one is White or cream on top & pink or brown underneath AND YOU CAN'T TELL THE DIFFERENCE?

    675:

    Uhm - Collecting mushrooms is not a relevant food source in a modern society, it is a hobby, and no more dangerous than various other hobbies. If we are talking cultivated mushrooms - Which can be a sensible protein source, yes and also are important for culinary culture, getting the wrong species should never ever happen

    676:

    "The anglo world also has a really stupid prejudice against fungi ... Given our strict dietary prejudices (muscle meats, rather than organ meats, ...

    LOL. Being Italian, I love mushrooms (farm-grown, they're safer and cheaper...wild Boletus is fiendishly expensive) and I know and make a lot of recipes involving organ meat...liver with onions, coratella (lamb heart, liver, spleen and lungs) with artichokes, oxtongue with green sauce, oxtail. Maybe the issue with organ meat is that they are glands and concentrate everything bad in the food, hormones, antibiotics, heavy metals, pollutants...

    677:

    Yes. Though A. virosa and A. verna are white on top. As I said, the rule is NEVER to eat anything that looks like a mushroom until its gills are clearly pink to chocolate brown. Avoiding yellow-stainers is a good idea, but that's easy, and a mistake almost certainly won't kill you.

    678:

    Miracles will never cease - I have agreed with an Ian Paisley, and find that he is understating the situation!

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-irish-border-northern-ireland-police-george-hamilton-eu-immigration-customs-a8418966.html

    It takes a lot to get a Chief Constable to go political but his description assuredly passes the duck test for a shambles.

    679:

    No, he's correct, the problem is the "US" government, if you broaden that to include all governments from local municipalities up to the feds.

    The judiciary is indeed independent, but the police and prosecutors (and sometimes the public defender) are part of the executive branch. Problems with the executive branch come into play with issues around how evidence is handled, how competent public defenders are, how people are pressured into pleading guilty to lesser offenses (with all the follow-on effects of becoming convicted criminals) as less burdensome to them than proving their innocence, being jailed because they can't afford bail, and so on. These are all problems with the executive, not the judiciary.

    The judge and jury may well be fair, but if the evidence presented them is problematic, then you can get a miscarriage of justice that's entirely the fault of the executive branch of whatever municipality is in charge.

    680:

    And there's mycophobia on full display, thank you very much for providing that.

    Incidentally, I've passed on lots of Amanita scare stories myself over the years, and I refuse to hunt mushrooms that aren't easy to identify.

    We're at a place in our global history where no wild food can be relied on to feed people indefinitely, especially including ocean fish. I suspect that the vast majority of foods for most people will be farmed or cultured by mid-century, unless our population starts decreasing before then. As Thomas Jorgenson noted, farming fungi is a fairly important way to extract or create nutrients that we need out of substrates our guts can't process, and that's important.

    681:

    You say "mycophopia", I say "recognising that I don't have the necessary skills". I have no problem with eating wild fungi provided that someone who knows what they are doing has identified them for me. I am not that person.

    Division of labour.

    682:

    I have myself hunted the wild mushroom, I have dangled off a cliff in a climbing harness to get at a secret stash of chanterelles (and no, I'm not going to tell you where that was). I'm still here, still hale and hearty and I've never been sickened by any wild mushrooms I've ever eaten.

    My Mad Friend Norman (the belay anchor in my abseilling chanterelle hunt) can't say the same. The first bite of a False Boletus cooked in an omelette was, thankfully, enough of a warning for him. He said he could still taste the aftereffects in his mouth two days later. He was knowledgeable in mycological matters (he found a small outcrop of Destroying Angel once, I don't know what he did with them though...), he was careful, really, all the time and never ever made mistakes. Until he did. Once (that I know of).

    Dunning-Kreuger tells us that everyone is an expert, the more they bloviate on the subject the more expert they are and of course they never make mistakes. Myself, I generally eat for fuel rather than orgasming over mouth feel and organic umami and I don't bother going hunting the wild mushroom any more. It's not the risk, I accepted it when I did forage for sustenance in that fashion, it's just... pointless.

    683:

    Two things: sorry, there's no way it goes back to circa 400 CE. I'd be surprised if it went back more that 300 - 400 years.

    The second... my instant reaction is how similar it is to The Twelve Dancing Princesses, from European fairy tales.

    684:

    You're right. Al foils also fails to foil RFD signals.

    685:

    sigh That should have been that AL foil fails to foil RFID access.

    686:

    Re: Pivot times

    Recently read about anocracy which ironically is still an ill-defined term but boils down to 'when there is no definite state of government'. Seems Britain is in this zone thanks to BrExit while the USofA is sorta there because the current gov't does not have a clear/overwhelming majority at any level of government therefore even when it seems a decision/law has been made/enacted, it can be (and has been) overturned the next day.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anocracy

    Another way of thinking of anocracy is a constant state of being confronted with a dilemma e.g., the ass that starved because it could not make up its mind which of two equally distant bales of hay to eat, mice in psych labs that cower and shiver when forced to select between two equally good/poor choices, etc. Tons of lit saying that this is a bad place to be, yet here we are.

    The obvious question is who benefits from such a situation because normally people (and mice) caught in such a situation will jump on anything that makes the choice easier. Turns out that countries that are adrift in anocracy have the highest rates of armed conflict. Hmmm ... interesting.

    687:

    In the US, dunno 'bout current US standards... but no later than the mid-eighties, the Philly local city paper had recommendations for brands, and recipes for using dog food for people.

    IIRC, cat food was a no.

    688:

    The anglo world also has a really stupid prejudice against fungi in everything except alcohol and baked goods.

    Not sure which anglo world this applies to. Button (aka, yes, "salad") mushrooms, crimini, portabella, shiitake, oyster and others are pretty standard in urban and suburban grocery stores in the US. As for organ meats, beef liver is traditional and sweetbreads (pancreas), tongue, tripe are typically in the cooler in many areas. Heart and kidney are available at the butcher counter, as are pork organs (Frituras de seso! Yum!). And then chicken hearts, liver, gizzards go without saying.

    Undoubtedly there are individual and regional preferences, but I don't see the prejudice being universal in the anglo world.

    https://www.heb.com/category/shop/food-and-drinks/fruit-and-vegetables/vegetables/mushrooms/3044/3360

    689:

    You are indeed 100% correct delurker. We did know that, however[0] We also know that it wasn't sung in 400AD. We're also aware we can't speak the language, although hearing those stories sung would be on our 'bucket list'.

    But wait, it did make you focus on it, which is important!

    A young woman just got elected in America[1] who somewhat represents more a better future for the country than the old Blue guard or the actual Gileadeans[2]. Let's just say that the strawberry moon be better devoted orgasimically for her youth and vigor rather than HRC, no matter how badly the old ones are misreading what's going on in America[3]. Think long and hard about Jo Coxx and hold onto to her tight.

    Aka, a sliver of hope in the miasma. Because y'all gonna need it.

    QAnon and all manner of other beasties / Keks / Evangelicals are taking this Judge appointment (as they say, the Law is a Higher Order Power) as 'full steam ahead' in their regression quest. Purge is being muttered, quite seriously.

    The rest is poking a finger in the eye of power-players & various others to show them at least one of us hasn't left and isn't meant to be that translatable.

    All this energy / harmony stuff is "bollocks" we were just told [combat protocols two levels below da police]: here's to cock-a-snoot and say that the old songs are sometimes better.

    p.s.

    Moon tonight. Wonder if they will be Dragons in the Sky.

    [0] The latin is its scientific name, but it's the same wild strawberry. Think of it as a joke about Empire / Rome and falls. [1] A 28-year-old Democratic Socialist just ousted a powerful, 10-term congressman in New York CNN, 27th June 2018 [2] The 81-year-old Kennedy said he is stepping down after more than 30 years on the court. A Republican appointee, he has held the key vote on such high-profile issues as abortion, affirmative action, gay rights, guns, campaign finance and voting rights. AP 27th June 2018 [3] cf Pelosi etc all 100% misreading where the USA is currently at.

    690:

    marino_bib @ 676 Yes, but ... one of the reasons I go out in September-November is the potential for huge quantities of Boletus badius & a few ceps if I'm lucky & common pufffball & .... [ One year, about 8 years back, the conitions wer spot on & I collected something like 10kg - I'm still using them, as I droed them out, very carefully ....

    Nojay @ 682 UInfortunately, in amongst the Bay Boletes & Yellow Russulas, where I normally look for fungi, there ae==re the occasional Amanitas ... Deathcap (common) White-Cap ( occasional) & Citrus-cap (really commo)n, as well as roll-rim .... So, yes, I do look really, really carefully.

    AT ' 688 Especially in Lancashire!

    691:

    To clarify, salad, crimini, and portobello are the same species, and portobello are just big crimini.

    It's worth taking a poll of your friends and asking how many will eat anything other than salad and portobello. You might be surprised at the answer. Ditto organ meats.

    692:

    It's worth taking a poll of your friends and asking how many will eat anything other than salad and portobello. You might be surprised at the answer. Ditto organ meats.

    Our friends seem to be fine with liver, tongue, menudo, and I'm not going to go around polling them on the matter. However, it seems likely that the stores have some motivation for keeping such items in stock. Like, at a guess, they're profitable because people buy them.

    693:

    Right, I've just been back and checked and it seems I'd remembered the conversation slightly wrongly, although not really in any important way...

    One chap went to Shanghai and couldn't find anything to eat that didn't consist of intestines, tracheae and suchlike, which he described as "fucking foul". One chap says there's enough of a Chinese community in Swansea to support Chinese Chinese restaurants, which serve the same sort of things. One chap says that Irish abbatoirs lucratively export to China all the bits they can't use.

    Doesn't affect my point, though, and your post also supports it: that while Western nations regard those bits with revulsion, the Chinese regard them with enthusiasm, so to become concerned that production may exceed consumption on the basis of Western-centric figures that exclude China may well not be justified.

    694:

    JBS wrote:

    I'm not opposed to the death penalty per se. There are some crimes that are so heinous that the death penalty is really the only appropriate response. The problem I have with it is I don't trust the government to be competent, just or principled enough to exercise that power.
    Given the number of convictions lately overturned by exculpatory DNA evidence, how often did the government get it wrong and execute innocent persons in the past, especially given the number of cases of actual innocence where it is later proven the prosecution had kept exculpatory evidence hidden to ensure a conviction.
    When a person is sentenced to life in prison, if it later turns out an innocent person has been convicted you can let them out and make some restitution however inadequate it may be.

    Let me first say that I am opposed to the death penalty per se.

    But, for you and all people who're not, there's a simple and obvious way of restitution in cases of wrongful executions: if it turns out that the executed person was innocent and the prosecution had exculpatory evidence hidden, make it mandatory that the prosecutor is put to death. After all, if the unlawful and intentional killing of a person deserves the death penalty, this should be applied to all killings.

    695:

    I didn't notice that on the BBC news last night, but Laura Kuenssberg has been talking about negative aspects of Brexit for some time, and last night John Pienaar was. I am pretty sure that the BBC management has decided that the government is too busy with internal feuding to keep it in line!

    696:

    Oh, put like that I agree. One of the more mindboggling things about the US is the number of police services. As best I can make out there are over 15 thousand of the blighters. This compares with 10 in Australia, and that's only if you count the National Criminal Intelligence Commission (dubious), the even more dubious Australian Border Force and the ever present ASIO. This means that for 13.5 times the population (roughly) the USA has more than 1,500 times as many.

    I guess the same thing applies range of services that for whatever hysterial raisons the US provides at a municipal level rather than a state or regional level. I've heard a figure of 30 thousand ambulance services, for instance.

    697:

    One chap went to Shanghai and couldn't find anything to eat that didn't consist of intestines, tracheae and suchlike, which he described as "fucking foul".

    When I was in Shanghai I had no trouble finding good food, even though I'm totally illiterate and can only speak a few words. There's enough Buddhists that going full-bore vegetarian is a (easy) option.

    I suspect that he was pulling your leg. (Or he was being shown around by someone with a twisted sense of humour.)

    698:

    Poetic, but 10 to 20 as a Public Defender should be a sufficient deterrent for a politically ambitious lawyer.

    699:

    The judiciary is indeed independent

    Looking at the kerfuffle with your Supreme Court (particularly the contrast between trying to appoint a judge under Obama vs under Trump) it looks rather political to an outsider.

    More so than I'm used to up here, anyway.

    700:

    There's enough Buddhists that going full-bore vegetarian is a (easy) option.

    That was supposed to be tasty option, but easy works too.

    Still not used to autocorrect in a browser. Old dog, new tricks, etc.

    701:

    while Western nations regard those bits with revulsion

    How about modifying that to "some people in some Western nations"?

    Checking the 1964 edition of "Joy of Cooking", about as mainstream an American cookbook as there is, one finds recipes for beef brains, heart, liver, marrow, sweetbreads, tongue and tripe, plus chicken giblets (heart, gizzard, liver). Not sure whether pigs' feet qualify in the present context, but they're there.

    702:
    One of the more mindboggling things about the US is the number of police services. As best I can make out there are over 15 *thousand* of the blighters.

    Tell me (Brit in the US) about it! Where I live in suburban New York, we have our own village PD, a town PD (although they don't usually enter our village, and our village contracts with a different town's PD for specialist drugs squad coverage), plus county PD and Sheriff's department. Then we are close to the Metro-North commuter rail so we often see Metropolitan Transportation Authority PD cruisers in our area, plus some of our roads are state-maintained so are patrolled by New York State Troopers. Oh and we're close enough to the water supply aqueduct for NYC that the city's Department of Environmental Protection police has some jurisdiction. In NYC itself, even the sanitation department has its own police for garbage-related crimes!

    The weirdest to me is university police departments. Personally I wouldn't trust most academic institutions with any law enforcement activities beyond having some textbooks on criminology in the library, but most folks here seem perfectly cool with it.

    703:

    Love it. And no, 10-20 as a public defender is NOT restitution. The book should be thrown at officers of the law (and rich people, while we're at it). Poor people, who see no way up, have that as an excuse. Officers are enforcing the law, and know it, and for them to break it is many times worse than some poor schmuck.

    The rich? Because they're not rich enough? Lock 'em up with the general population in jail - they are not better than any of them.

    704:

    Re: '... weird ... US is the number of police services'

    Same with the number of different un- and elected bodies that are allowed to levy taxes/fees. Lots and lots of hidden/additional charges/costs.

    Caveat emptor: Do not take any advertised US price at face value.

    705:

    As a Brit in NJ, one is shocked at how well paid the suburban police are, they also retire after 20 years, with great pensions As to prices, I just booked a hotel that had a hidden “resort fee” of $35/day absent from the headline number” for the basic amenities like “free wi-fi” The fact sales tax is excluded in listed prices is annoying too

    706:

    Restitution is not the goal, sidetracking the political career of a "Law & Order" prosecuting attorney is. If they're willing to withhold evidence to get more convictions, they're almost surely doing it with an eye to holding a tough on crime banner in a future election campaign.

    707:

    The weirdest to me is university police departments.

    Hereabouts K-12 school districts have them:

    https://nisd.net/police

    708:

    Don't forget the "Bulls" - The railway cops. Many people assume that they're not "real," just company security guards, but it turns out they are the real thing as well.

    709:

    Britain has these "Brtitish Transport Police" - who are almost always more professional & competent & honest than many of our other constabularies. [ Note*] Except in Scotland, where the SNP fucked-up & decided to integrate the local BTP into "Police Scotland" - which I'm given to understand, wasn't itself a good move in the first place. Scottish BTP members have been resigning or moving to England, apparently.

    Note* Some of you will have heard of "Hillsborough" where S Yorshire Plod not only fucked-up big-time, to the tune of 96 dead, but then consitently lied & smeared their way out of trouble. The person directly responsible has still not (yet) been prosecuted. Currently in the shit-bag are Avon & Somerset, with Devon not far behind ... arresting completely innocent people, lying to the press about it, to the point that ( had it come to a trial ) a fair prosecution or defence would have been impossible & being nasty little racists, complicit in behaviour that resulted in death. ( though, in that last, I'm glad to say that those responsible were jailed )

    710:

    University campuses are about the only interestingly weird jurisdictional thing here (in Oz). Universities come under federal jurisdiction, while police services are provided at state level. This means that usually there needs to be a report of a crime, "reasonable suspicion" or "hot pursuit" style reasons for local police to enter a campus. This isn't the case in the ACT (Canberra and surrounds) where police services are provided by the AFP.

    Which is why, back in the day, specifically in the time just after the ACT decriminalised marijuana but made possession of it a misdemeanor (legally equivalent to a parking ticket) you'd sometimes get a couple of ociffers hanging around on the ANU campus downwind of the uni bar's beer garden, occasionally issuing a fine to whomever was holding the joint when they swooped in.

    711:

    We're past 300 so it can go anywhere as I understand it and it may interest some of you.

    Check-out Asteroid day

    Should be interesting, whether you want avoid, destroy or mine them, or something entirely different.

    The whole weekend long event is streamed live.

    Asteroid Experts: Debbie Lewis (ADXP), Ian Carnelli (ESA), Patrick Michel (CNES), Mark Boslough (ADXP), Gary Martin (Spaceresources.lu), Alan Fitzsimmons (QUB Astrophysics Research Centre), Mario Juric (University of Washington), Pete Worden (Breakthrough)

    Astronauts: Chris Hadfield, Ed Lu, Rusty Schweickart, Nicole Stott, Tom Jones, Matthias Maurer, Dorin Prunariu

    Officials: Etienne Schneider (Deputy Prime Minister of Luxembourg), Simonetta di Pippo (Director of UNOOSA), Johann-Dietrich Wörner (ESA Director General)

    Scientists: Richard Dawkins (English ethologist, evolutionary biologist), Lord Martin Rees (British cosmologist and astrophysicist), Bill Nye (Science communicator)

    Artists: Sarah Brightman, Peter Gabriel

    712:

    There's enough Buddhists that going full-bore vegetarian is a (easy) option. ... That was supposed to be tasty option, but easy works too.

    It is a tasty option. Speaking as a carnivore who's tried it (because spouse is vegan).

    Back in the day, Chinese emperors tended to abdicate when they grew old and infirm, retreating to a Buddhist monastery for a life of prayer and contemplation when their son took over government.

    Being a monk who is an ex-emperor, however, has its perquisites — while veganism was mandatory, there was no requirement for it to be unpalatable, so the imperial chefs did their best to come up with plant-based substitutes for the meat-based delicacies the emperors had enjoyed. Tofu was one obvious protein base, but they also got heavily into seitan (wheat gluten), and the result is a pretty spectacular cuisine.

    There was a chain of vegan Chinese buffet restaurants all over London a few years back, but their owners were nailed for immigration offenses as I understand it (they were a religious movement/cult and importing their staff). Which is a shame, because I got quite hooked on the stuff.

    713:

    If they're willing to withhold evidence to get more convictions, they're almost surely doing it with an eye to holding a tough on crime banner in a future election campaign.

    And there's your problem in a nutshell: some public offices should absolutely never be elected — notably, the judiciary and the law enforcement sector in general (prosecutors, sheriffs, police chiefs). If you hold elections then you implicitly encourage unscrupulous sociopaths to run for office on a platform of scalps, regardless of whether their victims were guilty of anything in particular. Worst case, you can have a falling crime environment and a prosecutor who deliberately tries to create new crimes in order to run an election campaign, with the tacit support of lobbying from penal and police unions (who want a bugger budget). So people who should be walking free end up being charged, arrested, and sent to jail just to further some dipshit's career.

    (See also the school-to-prison pipeline, which AIUI doesn't exist anywhere in Europe — any more than US-style school shootings.)

    714:

    I'm pretty sure the Civil Nuclear Constabulary have jurisdiction in Scotland as well as the rest of the UK. (IIRC nukes are not a devolved issue.)

    Police Scotland was the sort of idea that appeals to bean-counters: cut costs by combining facilities, e.g. the big staff training college Glasgow/Strathclyde use with the smaller outlying facilities other forces had. Also, why have six Chief Constables when you can have one Grand High Poohbah?

    It turned out, however, that policing the suburbs of Glasgow was wildly different from handling the tourist crowds in the center of Edinburgh during the Festival, let alone policing the arse end of nowhere in the Highlands. Not to mention the size disparity between forces prior to the merge meant that there was a seniority disparity, so the top echelons of the combined force ended up being dominated by Glaswegians, whose local culture did not play well with the rest of the country. (They lost 10 years of progress on community relations with LGBT+, sex workers, etc. pretty much overnight in Edinburgh.)

    Of course, one problem of having a popular ruling party in government for over 11 years now is that it's kind of difficult for them to admit it was a mistake — especially when they're under the receiving end of cuts imposed by Westminster, which makes it hard to argue for reversing a move intended to reduce policing costs.

    715:

    Yes, the CNC have jurisdiction everywhere - I just wanted to reply about Railway Police & why (IMHO) they are "better" than normal Plod. The classic examle was the now-missed Andy Trotter, who before he retired went on record concerning "photography" after the usual fuckwit suspects went all paranoid about photographing anything & especially railways stations etc ( Because they were all plotting evil tewworwists, natch ) ... Anyway, Chief Plod Trotter stood up & said (Paraphrase);"We welcome photographers, provided they behave respoinsibly - i.e. don't run onto the rail-tracks - because photographs are EVIDENCE & if anything at all goes wrong, we can ask for copies, can't we?" It went very quiet after that ...dominated by Glaswegians, whose local culture did not play well with the rest of the country Yes, exactermightily!

    717:

    Um, you flipped that, I think. The Japanese emperors (at least prior to the Meiji) used to fairly routinely abdicate and move to a monastery. IIRC, in the Kamakura period, there were several active retired emperors who, while in the monastery, were also major landowners in Japan. It was akin to the current US practice of national politicians going on to enrich themselves in industry, after spending some time in governance in their younger years.

    Actually, the gyrating power games between the aristocracy, the military, and the monasteries in Japan (especially in their so-called "Middle Ages") make for fun reading. I'd recommend The World Turned Upside Down, if you're looking for some beach reading on a nice, Scottish beach this summer...

    As for the Chinese emperors, with the exception of those who got overthrown, they tended to rule until death.

    This isn't to knock Chinese vegetarian cuisine, which I happen to enjoy too. It's just that it wasn't created just to entertain ex-emperors.

    718:

    Incidentally, the notion that Buddhists are vegans is more complicated than that. IIRC, Buddhists monks can't eat alliums (onions and garlic), due to priestly prejudices in India at the time of the Buddha. Originally they were only to eat donated food. Meat was perfectly permissible, provided the animal wasn't killed just to feed the monk. It was okay for a Buddhist monk to eat, say, a bowl of beef stew, if everyone (monks and laity) are eating from the same pot. Eating a shrimp would not be okay, because that's eating an entire animal. And, of course, Buddhist monks can't kill their own animals to eat. The Buddha died of food poisoning, and the story goes that he ate some bad pork that someone had given him.

    This tradition still holds (IIRC) with Tibetan Buddhism, because Tibet's a hard place to be vegetarian, let alone vegan. Meat is allowable, so long as it's not an entire animal killed to feed the monk.

    Some later Buddhist traditions prescibe vegetarianism. Additionally, some traditions (notably Zen) allow monks to grow their own vegetable food, seeing agriculture as a proper form of mindfulness.

    So I guess the bottom line is, if you're entertaining a devout Buddhist, ask them what their tradition allows them to eat.

    719:

    Tell me (Brit in the US) about it! Where I live in suburban New York, we have our own village PD, a town PD (although they don't usually enter our village, and our village contracts with a different town's PD for specialist drugs squad coverage), plus county PD and Sheriff's department. You know this, but for the non-US people, an addition complication, not really mentioned sufficiently here, is that the very local courts in the US are often fed a stream of violations by the local police departments, to supply the town with revenue. It's sort of a random tax that tends to hit the unknowing/non-locals (who don't know where the police hide), and people find it acceptable because they were usually in fact violating the law. (Southern US I've heard can be worse in this regard.) The way it works typically, a person is caught exceeding the speed limit (usually significantly because most people do it so the police can pick and chose), a ticket is written for speeding, or perhaps for some lesser offense if one smiles at the officer enough. Then if it's a speeding ticket, one shows up in the court the designated evening, and everyone who is there because of an ordinary speeding ticket is given the opportunity to plead guilty to a lesser offense that has less effect on insurance rates or one's license. Like "unsafe lane change" or "disobeying a traffic control device". The State gets a cut, and the municipality gets the rest.

    https://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2013/12/what_courts_in_new_york_state_collect_the_most_fines.html, a search will find many other US states doing similar things, and an amusing future complication for these towns: https://qz.com/1043373/cities-will-lose-money-thanks-to-obedient-self-driving-vehicles/

    All this energy / harmony stuff is "bollocks" we were just told... During an interview yesterday, a person described a project they were working on, project name "Harmony". I had to suppress a smile the rest of the interview, and suppress the urge to ask whether they also had a project called "Energy".

    720:

    As a US-born citizen, as I understand it, it works like this: all cities have police forces. Some larger towns will also have police forces, but they vary by town size ("Now, I want tell you about the town of Stockbridge, Massachusetts, where this happened here, they got three stop signs, two police officers, and one police car...", Alice's Restaurant, of course). Counties have sheriff's departments, and rural counties tend to be policed by the Sheriff's Dept. On the other hand, I know from Philly that the police hand arrestees off to the sheriff's deputies, who run the jails.

    Is that any clearer?

    Oh, and it used to be considered good for the universities to have their own cops, who a) would be less aggressive/violent to students, and b) so the college could keep it from going to the courts.

    721:

    Humph! Brother Guy, who's an astronomer (when he's not head of the Vatican Observatory), and whose specialty is meteors, isn't in it?

    I need to email him 'bout that.

    722:

    I'm going to have to disagree with you, Charlie. Some should be elected. Counter argument #1: US Supreme Court Justice Kennedy is retiring... and his replacement will be chosen by Trump.

    For that matter, ex-Sheriff Joe Arpaio, of Arizona, who was finally voted out.

    Unfortunately, there's no one size fits all solution. I sort of like the idea that they have to pass legal tests to run.

    723:

    Speed traps. There's even web sites that list them.

    A northern suburb of San Antonio, TX, was a notorious one, in the Austin-San Antone corridor, until the state finally passed a law (or was it a state constitutional amendment?) that a municipality couldnt gain more than x$ (10%? 5%?) of their revenue from speeding tickets.

    And, of course, there's the nationally-known ticket or worse offense of DWB (driving while black), which results in anything from minor fines for things no one else is ever pulled over for, like a tail light out, to, well, being shot in the back.

    724:

    In Russia mushroom hunting is a universal hobby -- basically everyone does it. And while every year a few dozen people die, they are almost invariably professionals -- forest rangers and the like. The reason is, amateurs can identify 10-20 mushroom species, and that is all they ever take. "When in doubt, leave it out" is an absolute commandment. Whereas professionals know a hundred or more, some of which are quite tricky to distinguish from poisonous mimics.

    725:

    I'm going to have to disagree with you, Charlie. Some should be elected. Counter argument #1: US Supreme Court Justice Kennedy is retiring... and his replacement will be chosen by Trump.

    The UK has a supreme court, since 2009.

    Unelected. Appointed from the judiciary by the president of the court (who is the supreme Law Lord, i.e. the highest-ranking high court judge by way of seniority). No term limit but retirement is mandatory at age 70 and you don't get to sit on that bench unless you've already got decades of experience as a judge.

    In other words, it's politically autonomous and part of the independent judiciary.

    As for Arpaio, law enforcement officials should never be elected. (Another of the things to hate the Tories for is attempting to introduce elected police commissioners in the UK.)

    726:

    I don't think there's an ideal way of choosing judges.

    For example, there's the current case in San Diego of Superior Court Judge Gary Kreep, who, despite being Christian on the, erm, extremely conservative end of spectrum and litigating "birther" cases against Obama, and who has received a "severe public censure" for his previous conduct on the bench, nonetheless won the primary and is in the lead going into the fall election.

    The underlying problem here is that politics is seen in the US as a team sport. Even if someone's an incompetent asshole (not saying that about the notoriously litigious Kreep, this is a generalized argument), if he's the party's candidate for a particular office, a lot of us will hold our noses and vote for him. There are similar issues confronting voting for Rep. Darrell Issa's successor now, and I'll admit that a few years ago, I was one of the idiots who voted for the disgraced mayor Bob Filner.

    727:

    You don't need imitation meat dishes - I am not desperately keen on most of them, and generally prefer the ones that always were vegetarian. There are plenty of those, too.

    728:

    You and my wife. Some people like imitation meat, some people do not. For example, I'm okay with it, my wife is not, and we bicker endlessly about vegan meals as a consequence.

    As for the "monk's meat," it's seitan (purified wheat gluten). One tradition is that a Buddhist monastery hosted the Chinese emperor every year to a feast prominently featuring seitan. There are other traditions, such as that the emperors observed a meatless week each year, and seitan was served then. In any case, it's been around a long time, it appears that the Chinese invented it first, and it has long been associated (not exclusively) with Buddhist monastic fare.

    729:

    "Prince Charles vs. Cthulhu"

    ...coming soon.

    730:

    The underlying problem here is that politics is seen in the US as a team sport.

    Politics is totally a team sport in the UK as well, but we have an unelected, appointed judiciary and it mostly remains apolitical successfully as a result. Both major parties are okay with judicial independence; neither of them can use judicial appointments for political advantage and nobody really wants to open that can of worms. (I suspect our variable election cycle, even mitigated by the fixed term parliament act of 2010, means the political climate is too unpredictable to make a packed bench seem like a good idea to either party.)

    731:

    I'm just startled that wheat gluten and tofu haven't caught on among Catholics (Friday's moratorium on meat; also Lent).

    732:
    all cities have police forces

    Untrue: the city of Cupertino, California, does not have their own police force. Instead, they pay to have the county sheriffs cover the area.

    733:

    Some people like imitation meat, some people do not.

    We're generally good on TVP-based meat-inspired products here, though it's a mistake to expect TVP to imitate meat, rather than substitute for it. Accept TVP stuff for what it is, and it's ok if you like meat but want to limit it in your diet. For tacos, bolognese, hamburgers, sausages etc., it's fine on a day-to-day basis.

    But we do still like the occasional steak and fix lengua de res once a year or so.

    734:

    Speaking as a carnivore who's tried it (because spouse is vegan).

    The other day I happened to see something about tick bites causing allergies to meat (not new news), and brought to mind—iirc—you or Feòrag saying that she’s vegan because of a meat allergy, I assume not tick related. Or am I misremembering?

    All this talk of meat substitutes is making me hungry, and trying to decide what I’ll use in tonight’s stir-fry. I haven’t had one that I didn’t like, and am particularly fond of Quorn, when I can find it. Tempeh’s another good one, and frozen tofu (totally different texture, and when well pressed to get the water out takes a sauce well and makes an excellent stir-fry).

    And in another recent FB ‘discussion’ with my father, trying to, once again, tell him I was never a vegan—been a vegetarian for 27 years, but never gave up dairy or eggs (as an ingredient, can’t stand them on their own). He seems to think because I stopped wearing leather for a few years that made me a vegan. Nope. Nearly as frustrating as trying to explain that “Messianic Jews” are in no way actually Jewish, but that’s something else.

    735:

    Perhaps for the same reason that it hasn't caught on with the Orthodox, who can fast from meat up to 1/3 the year depending on which Church they're in: it doesn't follow from the religion. As I understand it, in Buddhism, the concern is not to sacrifice a being with Buddha nature (an animal). In Christianity, animals don't have souls, and part of the point of refraining from eating red meat is to discipline oneself against the problems of a fallen world by denying one's appetites.

    I will note that Seventh Day Adventists and good ol' John Harvey Kellogg played up the use of wheat gluten in the late 19th Century, so maybe it will become more acceptable in the Catholic and Orthodox traditions.

    736:

    "Politics is totally a team sport in the UK as well, but we have an unelected, appointed judiciary and it mostly remains apolitical successfully as a result. Both major parties are okay with judicial independence; neither of them can use judicial appointments for political advantage and nobody really wants to open that can of worms."

    We have opened that can of worms. (Bit long this.)

    A thing to consider about elected police chiefs, initially though, is they are clearly political, have term limits, and at least you can get rid of them, possibly simply because of all the burning cars that the urban demographic chooses to leave in your street. What on Earth is the legal procedure, though, for mobilising the removal of any of these yo-yos? Any of whom cloaks their politics heavily, and would regard questions about them as an egregious affront?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_judges_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_Kingdom

    The Supreme Court is nakedly political and is a Blair/Brown construction, conjoured up with the collusion of Moral Tone's flatmate Charlie Falconer, as Lord Chancellor. The appointments can be entirely political, with some mid-fifties New Labour types, so the plan ran, being quickly parachuted in to creatively interpret any laws passed in any way the party saw fit, especially after New Labour won the post 2008 period elections because of Gordon's economic brilliance. ("Not Flash, Just Gordon," as the posters ran.) And if it all went wrong then there's no getting rid of the setup, because this issue really is now too complex for the public to understand.

    As Wikipedia notes, the House of Lords was never the final court of arbitration in the land, that was technically the narrower Lords Judicial Committee, and the public are unlikely to understand that distinction, so a court of suitably vetted, limited number, permanent appointees could be gotten away with, ahem, was created.

    Rigging the upper house directly: i.e. Stuffing the Lords chamber with dozens of your mates/appointees is seriously bad form, dating way back to the days of Lloyd George, where a flat refusal to pass a popular-with-the-lower-orders finance bill by the old, Hereditary Lords was the origins of a threat by the King to nuke them by creating 250 Liberal peerages in a week. This wasn't altruism: Failure to pass the finance bill was of concern since the last time that had not happened, Charles I was in power, and a small matter called the English Civil War resulted off of the back of it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonin_Scalia#Succession

    In the US, with the death of Justice Scalia, and the subsequent immigration/"Muslim ban" upholding, the Bouffanted Potato was free to appoint someone in exactly this way. The guy could have the wisdom of Solomon and he still will be a portrayed as a crony, but consider how if it's a bad idea when he's doing it, it's a bad idea when, figuratively, you're doing it, right?

    And unelected Supreme Court Judges, like Justice Anthony Kennedy, who is a REAGAN era appointee illustrate, you can go on and on forever if you feel like it. Trump potentially gets two appointees in one year too, as Justice Kennedy is off at the end of next month. He doesn't have to though, it's just a choice on his part as he is well into his eighties.

    737:

    Just to revive a dead argument (sorry, Martin), I was catching up on War is Boring, and stumbled over this article on the development of the B-21 by the USAF.

    Flying bombers escorted by a next gen fighter squadrons deep into enemy air space? That's so WWII--but they want billion dollar bombers and hundred million dollar fighters to do it. Yeehaw!

    738:

    Charlie & ASM @ 730/736 Maybe the UK SUpreme Court was a very political move (It was) but ... Once up & running, the judges are now independant. There's a long & honorable history of such making law by their pronouncements.

    I would draw your attention to Lord Mansfield, who twice made history & also changed planetary history ( And probably triggered the real reason G Washington rebelled ) The two Mansfield decisions were: That throwing slaves off a ship ( to drown ) rather than putting in to port was not legal - this is not often spoken of because there was the other decision, & the reason why, until recently, the UK had no specific anti-slavery law, because his decision still held & was taken to be law. It consisted of 12 words: "The air of England is too pure for a Slave to breathe"

    Of, course, although he was a very rarified member of the aristocracy, he lived in Ken Wood House - which is well worth visiting, as it's park - now wholly within London, there were other considerations. He had an adopted grand-daughter Dido Belle ... which may have erm "coloured" his opinions on brown people being kept as property .....

    739:

    Writing as someone who was fairly heavily-involved in the Brexit campaign and who knows quite a few of those involved (e.g. Banks, Farage, Wigmore, JRM, Odey) I'm afraid I simply don't buy the argument that these people were persuaded to support Brexit / Leave because of inducements from Russia - they've all been ideologically opposed to the UK's membership of the EU for decades.

    740:

    Absolutely. But the rabid anti-Russians ignore such minor details as, when officials and politicians in both the USA and UK have been constrained to tell the truth, they have always said that there was no evidence of Russian meddling, and it was at most insignificant.

    However, while most of the Brexiteers want to break up the social order and replace it with one more to their tastes, SOME of the Brexiteers are in it for the money they can get when the UK economy takes a nosedive. Think Ashcroft.

    741:

    Well, sort of. There are two aspects.

    The first is, to misquote, "You cannot hope to bribe or twist (thank God!) the British senior judge. But, seeing what the man will do unbribed, there's no occasion to." I don't think that it's just that I am getting old, but I am pretty sure that problem is getting worse. Unlike in the USA, this affects only when they are judging on political matters: terrorism trials that rely on secret evidence and, especially, enquiries.

    The second is that the Lord Chancellor is a member of the government (i.e. a politician) and has considerable control over appointments to the Supreme Court. That would cause a major political row if used to override the President of the court, but not when merely used to apply pressure. Our judiciary is NOT as independent of the executive as is generally claimed.

    742:

    The creation of a Police Scotland was purely political - the big 4 consultancy firm who wrote the feasibility study advised the SNP very clearly that it very definitely would not save money.

    Unfortunately by then, of course, it had become an SNP campaign promise. And the opposition had questioned that it was a idea. And we all know how politicians hate it when facts disagree with their statements, and hate to admit they were ever wrong.

    Depressingly, that’s the charitable explanation. The uncharitable one is that a single police force is more easily controlled by politicians, sorry “accountable”, than six independent ones.

    743:

    ...I simply don't buy the argument that these people were persuaded to support Brexit / Leave because of inducements from Russia - they've all been ideologically opposed to the UK's membership of the EU for decades.

    This is true, but only in the very narrow sense. You're certainly correct about the British far-right. They've been nuts for years, and probably still imagine that the U.K. has the world's largest navy and a hundred captive economies in India and Africa... but this is the least-interesting of all the questions about Russian involvement in Brexit.

    As for interesting questions, where did the British far-right get the money for their campaign? Did the Russians make someone a "loan" like they did to Le Pen in France? Were there contributions from Russia that were laundered via some other organizations (look up "Russia NRA connection" for details about how this happened in the U.S.) Was there Russian involvement on Social Media? Did Russia pay any of the "consultants" used by Leave? What about Cambridge Analytica?

    In fact, I'm astounded by how the U.K. media and state are completely uninterested in these questions!

    744:

    The reason that they are uninterested is mainly that that information does NOT support any of the hate campaigns they (or, apparently, you) favour. We know that most came from our home-grown fanatics, some from USA-based sources, and that there was damn little from Russia. As I said in #740, the 'Russian connection' has been investigated by the government, and found to be essentially non-existent.

    745:

    Hm, there are a couple of things that come to mind; first of, not eating meat might not have been such a sacrifice until recently, since meat was not eaten daily.

    Second of, there are quite a few ways around it; fish is not prohibited, so you can eat it any time. There is some confusion about poultry, but last time I looked into Canon Law[1] it was classified as meat. No idea about frogs.

    OTOH, one of the ideosyncracies of history is that beaver is not classivied as meat[2] but fish

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaver#In_dietary_law

    and it seems this one goes back a little further to a council in Konstanz in 1414[3].

    Though then again, even having a Polish background and hanging out with Traditionalist Catholics doesn't mean you're keeping Lent nowadays, if I go with some older paternal relatives of mine[4].

    [1] It's somewhat ironic most "believing" Catholics wouldn't even know what taht is, but I digress... [2] Mind you, most Americans would definitely think beavers quite related to carnal pleaures, but, err... [3] Had a funny discussion about this with one guy in the biology department back in the day when it came up with my less drug-fueld RPG group; the term CASTOR used for transport of spent nuclear fuel made for some initial misunderstanding... [4] I'm not sure what to make of the individual in question being somewhat unsure if he might be circumcised and his wife talking about the effects of circumcision when we discussed a case of phimosis.

    747:

    "one of the ideosyncracies of history is that beaver is not classivied as meat[2] but fish"

    Otters, too, I believe. "The Catholic Church permits its consumption on maigre days", or something like that. Not that you'd really want to, but then I guess that says something about how much access yer average medieval Catholic had to dietary protein.

    No idea whether it generalises to all aquatic mammals, though if you can call something that cuts down trees a fish it would seem churlish to balk at a whale.

    748:

    In other news...

    It seems like one of my maternal cousins is dieing from cancer, my mother learning about the details through an acquaintance indicates something about the state of my mother's family.

    My mother used to say I'd end like her when my somewhat unusual social behaviour showed up (no comment); I'm somewhat tempted to call her "one of the wild ones", but then, showing indications of low-level alcoholism is not especially wild in my book.

    I only know the details through my mother, my cousin seems somewhat content, even happy, maybe it's knowing it's all over soon (I might be projecting at this point).

    I'm somewhat wondering how my cousin became the way she is, maybe some low level ADHD, though my mother's family is, err, at least very different from my father's.

    Me having a quite clear memory of her father burning my hand with a cigarette when I was walking around as a small kid makes for some ideas...

    (My maternal aunt, OTOH, was quite normal.)

    My cousin having the same given name as a certain friend of me (Code name: "Mhari") makes for some strange emotional cross contamination...

    (My emotional life, as usual, is somewhat strange, I haven't seen her in years, and on the surface, it doesn't bother me, it's just the usual shit happening, but when I think about it, her husband, her children, and I try to empathize, it's PKD's ananke once again, and I feel like I could cry.)

    749:

    I'd have to look it up, though I have no idea where. ;)

    The original ruling AFAIK mentioned "warm-blooded", no idea what the original Latin was.

    Which would include whales, but then, tuna keeps it's body temperature above its enviroment, too.

    750:

    "As for interesting questions, where did the British far-right get the money for their campaign? Did the Russians make someone a "loan" like they did to Le Pen in France? Were there contributions from Russia that were laundered via some other organizations (look up "Russia NRA connection" for details about how this happened in the U.S.) Was there Russian involvement on Social Media? Did Russia pay any of the "consultants" used by Leave? What about Cambridge Analytica?"

    I'm not sure why you think this a question at all, let alone an "interesting" one? Funding sources for the EU Referendum were all reported in-line with UK electoral law.

    To be clear, I was involved in running one of the campaign orgs (I conceived / produced 'Brexit: The Movie'), am familiar with the key people at a number of the other campaign orgs (we generally all know one another) and know the key donors well.

    The donations were all reported - UK law is pretty robust on this sort of thing and there's simply not the evidence of Russian influence / funding.

    (Indeed, having run a fairly high-profile Brexit campaign project presumably I should have been approached by these Russians if they were so involved and I categorically wasn't).

    751:

    "Once up & running, the judges are now independant."

    Same sort of thing seems to happen with the House of Lords. Once they get there, there's nowhere else to go, and they are sufficiently proof against getting kicked out that they could probably get away with suspending a row of dead whales by their tails from the roof of the chamber and painting them alternately red and green. They certainly no longer have to leave that brain outside and vote just as their leaders tell 'em to, and a remarkable number of them seem to discover unsuspected stores of progressiveness and common sense, and keep slapping down the more extreme and looney crap the Commons put forward. Which is of course the real reason why the Commons like to portray them as undemocratic reactionary old farts to try and turn people against their continued existence.

    752:

    (for donor details please see here -https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/political-parties-campaigning-and-donations/campaign-spending-and-donations-at-referendums/donations-and-loans-reported-by-campaigners-at-the-eu-referendum)

    753:

    Regarding Russian influence on Brexit ... Well we know that both Putin & DT, neither of whom have our interests at heart are in favour of it ...... As well as all the other wreckers who want to profit from the smash. That is bad enough even if, as suggested no actual "Russian money" has been involved.

    Pigeon @ 761 Exactly ..... As in calling ( not yet, but they will ) for either a second Referendum or a prover vote in the HofC is somehow "Against the will of the people" - whereas they are asking the people for theor opinion, rather than leting the ideologues run away with the whole thing

    754:

    Your campaign was pro-Brexit?

    755:

    Firstly, “War is Boring” is well-written and occasionally correct; but not always. Secondly, the author of that piece is ex-USAF; but that doesn’t grant him papal infallibility - for instance, Lewis Page and Sharkey Ward are ex-RN, but are generally regarded as single-issue obsessive tossers with a massive axe to grind.

    The author appears to base his opposition on the assumption that the B-21 is solely a member of the nuclear triad; except it isn’t. He says it’s overpriced at $550 million per aircraft; but doesn’t point out that a new Boeing 777 airliner will cost anything between $260 million and $320 million. Each.

    Essentially, the USAF needs to plan for the replacement of the B-52 and the B-1; they can’t afford another B-2, but they need something survivable (i.e. low-observable) with a bigger bombload / longer range than a fighter-bomber like F-35. The Russians have built, and are selling, some pretty damn capable anti-aircraft/area denial systems; anything that ignores this fact is suicide. So, they’ve commissioned the B-21; any insistence that the B-21 and F-35 are going to be doing a re-enactment of the USAAF 8th Air Force is likely in the imagination of the author...

    Otherwise: what does the author suggest is the correct USAF answer to S-400 / S-500 exports? Because he doesn’t seem to suggest an alternative...

    ...note that the USAF may well be betting that the whole “prompt global strike” and hypersonic missiles will take up the next big project cost, but that this is a “meanwhile” system, in case the hypersonics aren’t ready to replace the B-2

    PS If you want an example of a far more level-headed and better-informed military blog (albeit naval-focussed), try this:

    https://thinpinstripedline.blogspot.com/

    756:

    Yes - Brexit: The Movie was a campaign film that advocating for a vote to leave the EU. Funding was a mixture of small donor crowdfunding via Kickstarter and larger donations from people like the hedge fund manager Jeremy Hosking, Arron Banks's entity 'Better For The Country Ltd' etc.

    757:

    Strange.

    Wag TV, and Mr M and Mrs K Durkin are listed as the producers of said movie, and have received payment for doing so. They are also listed as the only shareholders of said company, so we must assume you are an employee of theirs. The company accounts are online: let us just say that their fortunes have immeasurably improved since 2011[0] although there seems to be a ~£2 million repayment pending. Mr Durkin has long had ties with certain 'Think Tank' interests funded by various American and British petroleum companies[1] and has courted controversy over the factual content of his output, notably from Ofcom[2].

    It's also strange that you fail to mention that the Leave Campaign was found to have breached electoral rules with the BBC reporting that Leave.EU was fined £70,000 for said breaches[3].

    Given that Host has mentioned how litigious certain parties are, we shall allow the reader to imagine how trustworthy a source you represent.

    Oooh, wait: you're Spitfire Capital, who donated £50k to the crowdfund for the film, that's what you're saying? You seem to love https://twitter.com/belsizerugby for some reason...

    Nice trolling bra.

    ~

    Oh, and given you "know everyone involved", here's something a little more factual than you might be used to: tools are much easier to find amongst those willing to serve.

    We happen to know the moment old Nige was fingered as a useful fulcrum - quite the rise he's had, after all those years languishing in the doldrums of MEP whinging.

    (Indeed, having run a fairly high-profile Brexit campaign project presumably I should have been approached by these Russians if they were so involved and I categorically wasn't).

    That's Not how it works, that's not how any of this works: the whole Ambassador Gold / Diamond mines is just flashy cover, designed to troll the media. It's a snaffle-baffle / razzle-dazzle.

    The people who know people in Belize would have been approached first. e.g. Viktor Yanukovych and Manafort used Belize quite extensively[4], and Yanukovych is Putin's.

    So, er: should we bother looking into Spitfire Capital (you're running late filing with Companies' House btw) and Belize?

    Because... OOOH, SHINY.

    [0] https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/03556882/filing-history

    [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Global_Warming_Swindle

    [2] https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0030/45489/issue114.pdf

    [3] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44080096

    [4] Special prosecutors from Ukraine are worried that three money laundering investigations, one leading to Belize, might fall through because of non-cooperation by authorities in the United States.

    The three investigations are all linked to Paul Manafort, former campaign chairman for United States President Donald Trump.

    https://www.breakingbelizenews.com/2018/01/29/us-impedes-ukraine-money-laundering-investigation-with-ties-to-belize/

    758:

    Oh, to protect Host.

    Source for the £50k bung / "crowd sourcing": http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3585243/Brexit-Movie-hits-big-screen-produced-director-CV-includes-film-offering-sex-advice-ANIMALS-documentary-extreme-ironing-episode-science-asking-Did-nuke-Jupiter.html

    The problem with all these financial types is that a) they're rarely as smart as the imagine and b) they turn vicious and mean when outed as such.

    p.s.

    SHINY, BELIZE IS SHIIINY. JPM SAYS HEELLO.

    759:

    I mean, given you know everyone involved, you have a weird set of brass balls on you, given Lord Ashcroft and Belize are currently being investigated.

    Oh, and... about the time of Trump / Brexit, Lord Ashcroft looked in trouble. Can't think of a motive if private investors came to save the day. Wait, when did Trump announce? Brexit was June 2016, right? And those losses over the proceeding six months must have hurt...

    And, wait: who were those Lawyers who used to represent Leave.EU and others? They had a weird funky name, can't remember them:

    Another BBI account-holder to have complained of problems with money transfers was the Belizean arm of Mossack Fonseca, the offshore law firm at the centre of the Panama Papers scandal. from [0]

    I mean - do you want us to start using non-POB sources and show some actual skill and dump some PDFs on you?

    I mean, we can do, if you want to play Cat-And-Mouse.

    [0] Value of deposits falls by 75% in six months as Belize Bank International gets caught up in US tax-evasion crackdown

    Lord Ashcroft's Belize bank hit by wave of withdrawals Guardian, Aug 2016.

    760:

    I mean: everyone knows the Panama Papers leak was the USA burning Putin / .RU & .CN etc.

    You can search through them if you want - https://offshoreleaks.icij.org/

    761:

    Btw, Hello Mother.

    Top tip: when running FUD, it's an interesting one when two similar names are used with two similar companies. It's always a sign someone's playing games. e.g. David C Shipley, Spitfire Capital and David Shipley, Capital Advisors. Interesting difference in Twitter pictures etc.

    p.s.

    Really wondering how someone is registering Shooting Stars Academy[0] as a new venture when a similar setup has been ongoing since 2005[0]. I mean, it's almost as if someone is setting up stuff that has data smog already attached as a blind or something.

    [0] https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/11224593/officers [1] https://www.shootingstarsacademy.co.uk/about-us also listed at http://www.childrensuniversity.co.uk/home/learning-destinations/shooting-stars-academy/

    ~

    Shall we stop now?

    762:

    Since it's a Hexad.

    Why would anyone leave their prior employment[0], but them immediately start up a similar sounding company[1]? And then start other blinds?

    Weird. Almost as if someone got cut out of the loop or something.

    shrug

    SHUB SHUB

    [0] Cessation of David Shiply as a person with significant control on 1 March 2017 Companies House

    [1] https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/10721318/officers

    763:

    And yes, weird: your name got accidentally mispelt on several of the forms. With an "e" or without?

    Weird that. We've heard of other parties in Leave.EU doing a similar thing to stop people accurately searching their names. Last name Banks, I think?

    p.s.

    This is us playing nice and legal with respects to Host. You might want to ask yourself why someone (you?) Google Bombed your name so that it turns up all over the feminist space with a load of negative flags btw. Someone is smearing you right & proper like.

    ~

    EC is wrong about .RU, he's just right in certain ways. It's all about $$$.

    764:

    Anyhow, wall-o-spam over. But none of these chumps on the front end are in any way opaque. If you want to impress you state something like: "We engineered the entire affair from Nigel to Banks to the entire crew - all chosen / fish-hooked because we had psych profiles and data sets and knew they were weak enough to go for it".

    I mean, if you were [redacted] class.

    @Host: here's a picture to cheer you up.

    https://i.redd.it/y916kj1h9u511.jpg

    The chumps on your twitter feed / in the papers are basically just tools running software on ancient wetware.

    When they realize it, it tends to shatter their self-image. crack

    765:

    For Greg etc.

    To get the entire joke, you have to realize that there's this David Shipley:

    https://uk.linkedin.com/in/david-shipley-a506514

    Out there with a STUPIDLY pro-Brexit / pro-Capitalist Twitter and this David Shipley:

    [REDACTED]

    Lol... Genius.

    Mother pulled a full wipe of all those tasteful B&W shots, all the social data etc... while we were typing. Shit, they even pulled the Corp. Filing data.

    CUT-OUTS: WHEN SHIT GOES TITS UP, MI5 EDITION.

    Busted, so fucking busted.

    "Conspiracy Theory"

    "Hey, Kids - watch this and how slow these fuckers are".

    766:

    Greg Tingey @ 674:

    "Poisonous one is green/brown on top & white underneath Edible one is White or cream on top & pink or brown underneath AND YOU CAN'T TELL THE DIFFERENCE?"

    Maybe some people can, maybe some people can't. If you can, that's cool, but why encourage someone who can't tell the difference (and it's not always going to be as clear-cut as your two images) to take the risk when they can buy edible fungi at the grocery store? Or buy a starter kit and grow their own from a KNOWN variety.

    767:

    Last spam: Linkedin chosen because: The Brokedown Palace Ltd.

    Our poster boy is currently wetting his panties and data scrubbing: so, here's a link for him since he likes film production:

    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0574503/quotes

    Patrick Stewart: Yeah. For instance, I'm walking along, and I see this beautiful girl, and I think I'd like to see her naked, and so all her clothes fall off.

    Andy Millman: All her - clothes fall off?

    Patrick Stewart: Yes, and she's scrabbling around to get them back on again, but even before she can get her knickers on, I've seen everything. Yeah. I've seen it all.

    768:

    Oh, and since David wanted to be a big-shot, here's a link:

    https://contactout.com/Hunter-DuBose-1833148

    You. Fuckers. Are. Slow. And. Dangerously. Naive. And. Arrogant. In. This. Brave. New. World.

    Takes 4 seconds to map your entire relationship trees.

    Everyones Going Down YT, Film, Casino, 3:29

    p.s.

    David is not a big-shot.

    769:

    I'd say you have an overly strong sense of your own importance. Why would anyone come to you and say "Hey, I'm a Russian agent and I'd like to subsidize your film?" Furthermore, if _ is taking Russian money, why would they talk about it to you?

    It's far more likely that a Russian agent would subsidize your film via someone you don't know is taking Russian money... I'd guess that half the Senators and Congressmen who benefited from an NRA donation have no idea that some of their money had a Russian origin. Why should you be any different?

    770:

    They didn't.

    He's been cut off from the source since April 2017 and has been desperately making fake cover since.

    He's a bit scared that the real wild ones are in play. [Hint: they are - Wild Hunt is going to happen]

    watches everyone ignore the actual meat because they have us on ignore

    They're cleaning house. He's basically asking us / MI5 to take him under a wing. Problem is: You tortured our daughter and you fucked a lot of people to the tune of ~£100 billion

    If I were him, I'd liquidate cash and head over to Thailand / Cambodia and vanish.

    771:

    MSB @ 694

    "But, for you and all people who're not, there's a simple and obvious way of restitution in cases of wrongful executions: if it turns out that the executed person was innocent and the prosecution had exculpatory evidence hidden, make it mandatory that the prosecutor is put to death. After all, if the unlawful and intentional killing of a person deserves the death penalty, this should be applied to all killings."

    Obviously, you don't understand the difference between restitution and retribution. What you suggest runs counter to the very thing I oppose about death penalty cases.

    While there are crimes that deserve retribution, I don't trust the government to be competent, just or principled enough to exercise the power of retribution and not have it become judicially sanctioned murder. I oppose the death penalty because when the government has that power they're inevitably going to fuck it up and abuse it. It will be applied in cases where it is not appropriate.

    772:

    Someone tell JBS about the real world.

    Hint: you're running old software on ancient wetware. i.e. LYING CAT MODE.

    I oppose the death penalty because when the government has that power they're inevitably going to fuck it up and abuse it. It will be applied in cases where it is not appropriate.

    You might want to recalibrate your sense of outrage to include the terms: "Non-Caucasian, Non-CIS, Non-Capitalist".

    Wake me up when you've parsed the first 1,000 cases and got to 1931. For fun, add in "Misuse of DNA science when science was bogus (bonus bonus round: interrogation / lie detectors / FBI setups etc) when subject was not Caucasian CIS Capitalist.

    Seriously: Grow the fuck up already.

    Mexico is killing off any person running against the Cartel-Oligarchy.

    You really think the USA ain't going to do that? Really?

    773:

    Robert Prior @ 699:

    "The judiciary is indeed independent
    Looking at the kerfuffle with your Supreme Court (particularly the contrast between trying to appoint a judge under Obama vs under Trump) it looks rather political to an outsider.
    More so than I'm used to up here, anyway."


    There has been a concerted effort on the right to subvert the independence of the judiciary that dates back even before Brown v Board of Education. It really took off under Nixon's "Southern Strategy" when Nixon appointed Lewis Powell (Anthony Kennedy's predecessor). The country club (aka pro-business) republicans sought to woo the neo-confederates away from the Democratic Party. They succeeded too well. The radical right turned around and took the party away from them.

    But essentially, every thing that's going on with the Supreme Court now proceeds directly from Bush v. Gore.

    Something else you have to understand about the courts in the U.S. is that there are two different levels of the judiciary - state & federal. At the state level judges are usually not appointed, they're elected in supposedly "non-partisan" elections (which only means that their party affiliation is obfuscated). Like state legislative districts & Congressional Districts, judicial districts are subject to partisan gerrymandering.

    The real question here is will the already partisan Supreme Court be packed even further to the right by a hard-right Federalist Society justice or will Trump appoint an outright Fascist?

    774:

    OK, SERIOUSLY, COMEDY GOLD ROUND: MF / CAUCASIAN LIBERALS ARE USING A FUCKING CIA ANALYST AS A FUCKING EMOTIONAL CRUTCH:

    https://twitter.com/CindyOtis_/status/1012488916178436096

    SAID CIA ANALYST BLOCKS ANYONE WHO SUGGESTS THAT THE CIA IS NOT THE GREATEST MORAL INDICATOR IN THIS BOOK.

    AND AMERICAN LIBERALS ARE SO MIND-FUCKED, THEY'RE BACKING HER UP.

    EVEN THE CCCP AND SOVIETS EXPECTED BITTER CYNICISM AND BILE FROM THE PROLES: NOT FUCKING INANE "RA RA AMERICAKKKA" AND NEEDING A CIA FUCKING ANALYST WHO OVERSAW TORTURE AND DRONE STRIKES TO HELP THEM DEAL WITH IT.

    You're beyond fucked.

    It's Done. Wild Hunt, full spectrum, Waaaar. Damned. Entire Continent. Purged and made Wild.

    You fucking insane, immoral and pathetic little Minds.

    775:

    JBS...

    Doesn't know what's happening.

    DUDE, THEY WON.

    It's going to get real fucking dark, real fucking soon. Stop ignoring, start engaging.

    776:

    Oh, and no fucking joke mate: 30k+ likes.

    If you want to know what Fascism is, that's it.

    A desperate and confused populace willing to cheer on proponents of torture, extra-judicial killing and absolute refusal to be transparent to the democratic process.

    And they're FUCKING CHEERING ABOUT BEING ALLOWED SOME EMOTIONAL UNDERSTANDING THAT THE STATE HAS REMOVED FROM THEM VIA CORPORATE MEDIA.

    You're Fucked

    For the millenials:So this is how liberty dies… with thunderous applause

    For adults:

    There. Are. No. Adults. Anymore. c.f. JBS etc all posts in this thread. They are all children.

    QED.

    777:

    And, to feed back into the 13 Möbius play: grep - 2000AD Silver Surfer, End panels.

    Grenade down the pants. Told you.

    We're Faster Than You

    Anyhow, fuck it - you failed the Fermi Test. Slow Clap into Monotheistic Fundamentalism and Death Drive, I guess?

    Moon YT: Music, Bjork, 5:$6

    p.s.

    Israel can get fucked with their shitty knock-off third-world version. Culture? shit, you have a walled garden of torture locked into a 3,000 yr old tradition, not a fucking culture. DEATH. STATE.

    778:

    Oh, and no fucking joke mate: 30k+ likes. Her couple of travel-as-a-wheelchair-user articles on thedailybeast seemed OK. I don't know how to get a list of who some other twitter user has blocked; there might be automation or shared blocklists involved at least in part.

    Anyway, was quite interesting to watch the forensics play earlier. It helps if one's sense of shiny flags, as shiny, financial and political rube-goldberg-ery.

    (now to parse that last post :-)

    779:

    Damian @ 696:

    "Oh, put like that I agree. One of the more mindboggling things about the US is the number of police services. ...
    I guess the same thing applies range of services that for whatever hysterial raisons the US provides at a municipal level rather than a state or regional level. I've heard a figure of 30 thousand ambulance services, for instance. "


    The U.S. system of local governance developed when it was a long, hard, several day's journey by wagon for most people to get from the county seat to the State Capital. Local governments had to do the jobs that the states physically couldn't get to back then.

    Compare 30,000 ambulance services with the 35,000 cities & towns in the U.S.

    According to the United States Geological Survey there are 4,000 "cities" with a population greater than 10,000 persons and 31,000 "towns" with populations less than 10,000 persons; and just fewer than 20,000 of those towns having populations greater than 5,000 persons.

    Consider also that Australia has a bit more than 75% of the land area of the U.S. but is divided into only 7 states. Two American States - California & Texas each have populations greater than Australia. The whole of the U.S. population is more than 13 times greater - spread across 50 states. Added together the populations of California and Texas exceed that of the UK by a million or so.

    You're comparing Apples to Oranges. Try picking out one or two US States of equivalent size & population to compare with the UK or Australian States ...

    780:

    Ọya-Iyansan @ 772:

    "Someone tell JBS about the real world. ...
    "You might want to recalibrate your sense of outrage to include the terms: "Non-Caucasian, Non-CIS, Non-Capitalist"


    Let me know when you get back to the real world and we'll talk about it. Until then Pfffffffffffftttttttt!

    781:

    Grenade down the pants. Told you. Found that panel, linked here Haven't worked out mappings to >0 coherent meanings yet though. (Well, maybe.)

    (I am not one who gives up, fwiw.)

    782:

    Good example here of how googling can only provide you with a limited picture of what went on. Suggest you pick up a copy of Owen Bennett's 'The Brexit Club...' and read the chapter on BTM in there.

    Also, Spitfire Capital Advisors didn't donate anything to the production of Brexit: The Movie - the press at the time was incorrect (as you can see if you look here - https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/political-parties-campaigning-and-donations/campaign-spending-and-donations-at-referendums/donations-and-loans-reported-by-campaigners-at-the-eu-referendum)

    783:

    Actually that's a fair point. Well I suppose it's more accurate to say that the donors to the film (the larger ones of which are listed by the electoral commission) were all already rich and long-time pro-Brexit so it seems unlikely they'd have needed Russian money / encouragement to support us (and other leave campaigns).

    784:

    Godspeed. I would dearly like to read a slightly less scrambled version of the word salad, but sadly don't have the cognitive runtime/investment nessesary to grok the references. The latest spam has been deliciously unobfuscated.

    @Ọya-Iyansan

    watches everyone ignore the actual meat because they have us on ignore

    Sorry.

    785:

    Thanks for the advice. I think I'll just carry on with my surfing holiday in Cornwall instead though.

    786:

    I didn't realise that you were commenting on that specific spelling as it seems less of a backronym than just a change in spelling once the word lost its association with the acronym in the general conscious. I apologise.

    (Just to clarify, the end of my previous post was a sincere, if ill phrased, request for clarification or contraindications. Again I apologise for any confusion if it came off as cheek)

    787:

    JBS @ 766 Or buy a starter kit and grow their own Oh dear. Unfortunately, the number of fugal species that can be properly cultivated is very small. Delicious but currently uncutivable species include ( By no means a complete list) ... Common Puffball, Giant Puffball, Bay bolete ( & many other boletes ) - but, especially "Penny Bun" bolete, Yellow Russula, etc etc .... So, at present, you are stuck with looking for wild ones, if the conditions are right ....

    "O-Y" @ 765 / 757 Actually, thank you & I got all of that - interesting. Pity about some of the later rantings, though. Excepting your 772 though Mexico is killing off any person running against the Cartel-Oligarchy. The election result is going to have interesting repercussions if (when) AMLO wins - do we foresee a CIA-backed, Pinochet-style coup? Worrying idea.

    JBS @ 773 He'll try for an outright fascist, if he can get away with it.

    788:

    Why would I bother doing that?

    As you've just explicitly stated, all you (vocative, both remain and leave) do is lie constantly and create really crappily named Company Blinds to fence cash through. e.g Diana Van Nievelt Price[0]

    That was in 2005: she's on the hook this time for a cool £1 mil, but... is she still living in a bungalow, is she still the same person (now must be 76) and so on? Or did you fence it through another pensioner?[1]

    Thanks for the advice. I think I'll just carry on with my surfing holiday in Cornwall instead though.

    Yep, there we have it: total LYING CAT followed with "ma cool hols in Cornwall Cool Surfer hotspot". I mean: y'all very predictable, it's the Barrow-Boy version of the Manafort / Cohen swagger.

    So we'll leave you with Danny Boy:

    Brexit is this mad riddle, no one knows what it is" was actually some of the most astute political analysis I've heard in ages, until he bettered it with "What happened to that twat David Cameron?" Alex Nunns Twitter ('cause he's a lefty, eh?)

    Can I throw you a spanner and some really juicy data? Like why you were cut out in 2017[2]? Pleeeease? You have a hilariously parochial view of what "rich" is btw ~ all these scruffs barely hitting three digit millions. They're barely 0.1% which is where it's at.

    Hint reader: Watch for the Men eating Ice Cream in the carpark wearing old flannel shirts with collars.

    [0] Diana Van Nievelt Price, 63, from the Midlands, has given the Conservatives £440,000 by buying a painting of Baroness Thatcher at a recent fundraising ball. The price is estimated to be about 15 times its value. Van Nievelt Price had been assured her name would be kept secret, even though legally it should be declared.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bungalow-woman-is-pound440000-tory-donor-rb7twrd287j

    [1] Gladys Bramall, 87, whose name appears on 2008 list of party members, has given £600,000, according to funding records

    Vote Leave gets big donation from former BNP member on leaked list Guardian Jun 2016

    Guess the press must have got it wrong again: she's not listed on page 7 https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/213139/Pre-poll-4-Summary-Document.pdf

    Why? Because she donated before the cut off for that report!

    [2] Want to meet some Russians? It can be arranged!

    790:

    Gosh. No that doesn't sound great does it?

    791:

    As an upside, that's a step to renaming it the Department of War. (Oh wait, that's not much of an upside dispite being a bugbear roud these pats.)

    792:
  • LOL at the idea that a fat, bald man surfing badly in Cornwall thinks that he's in any way cool.

  • https://twitter.com/Hayleeee1848/status/1007686469396426753

  • 793:

    Oh, that's cute. That's the lower/middle tier Twitter level, I mentioned it upthread - that's the tier that's not got a hold of even free data visualization stuff. Do you want a data visualization map of the League of Nations while we're at it?

    http://www.martingrandjean.ch/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/IntellectualCooperationMultiLevel.png

    I mean, that's a little more complex and apparently the LoN disbanded before WWII.

    Or something like this?

    We're proud to partner with @AtlanticCouncil to strengthen our election integrity efforts around the world. We'll work with experts from their Digital Research Labs to share real-time insights and ideas to better fight abuse on our platform. Facebook, 17th May, 2018

    or something akin to where Facebook is partnering with Fox News to combat "propaganda"?

    Facebook is paying the three companies and other news organisations to produce shows for its video service, known as Watch, in the hopes of countering false news stories and boosting the social network’s fledgling video ad business.

    Facebook enlists anchors from CNN, Fox News, Univision for news shows Reuters, 6th June 2018

    Palantir has been running since 2004. Just plug you into something like Commetrix CMX Analyzer and it'll pop out a map.

    See, this is the real issue that will end up getting everyone 'tied off': y'all so certain that you're still running in the world where Companies' House and the Guardian are where it ends and everyone can cutely pretend that data mapping isn't breaking through all that obfuscated data in offshore accounts / shell LLCs etc.

    Hint: that ended a while ago. But you go ahead and blow smoke and send the bots after Host, see how it ends up.

    p.s.

    Watch out for sharks - we've heard that Cornwall has basking sharks still.

    794:

    Which is more powerful in political influence - a country that barely manages to balance out it's economy by devaluating it's currency to level it's (largely oil-dependent) budget, or the country that has unlimited access to any amounts of money the human hand can write on a paper? Searching traces of "Russian influence" in US-aligned political system is no more useful than finding a needle in a haystack. Even if you discover something, who will guarantee that this was done in the interest of the country itself rather than some separate individual, or even to cause the opposite effect? The incompetence of politicians makes anything like "reasoning" seem to be absolutely obsolete, they are guided by market supply-demand reflexes rather than cause-effect relations.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O133ppiVnWY This is something I was watching as far as 8 years ago. Having a good mathematical education, I could value the importance of this lecture. Not that I think now I'm the smartest man on this topic or this is the single major problem we face today (the lecture is probably 20 years old and there was a lot of other things to think about), but it exposes things that barely 0.1% of people ever heard of, not to say about understanding. Now you would say "oh, wait, but we all well-aware about this problem and how it is necessary to keep population in check, and resources should be saved". Bullshit. Because the people only listen to what they want to listen, and while they like to outline the problem with overpopulation, they have not a slightest idea what it is necessary to do to contain it (the understanding part). They only want to use it to meet their own ends, and this is exactly what has been going on ever since then. This is how "liberal" democracy works. Think, I should (re)read one or two of Foundation series to find any parallels.

    It seems like the US currently is struggling between two opposite notions to a) continue to expand their markets, by force if necessary and b) isolate itself from effects of the global stagnation of economy. Which is mutually exclusive and will tear up anything that is stuck in between. I mean, come on, people, the US-centred globalization train has been accelerating since 1988 non-stop for 20 years straight, so that in 2008 it hit the end station and since then is in full contact with the wall. Even as we are, in this exact moment, still in the continuous crash of this system, while the forward sections are compacting under the strain of deceleration, the rest of the people won't feel as much as tremble as they reach the point of sudden stop.

    The only thing Trump really did was to hop on one of the last wagons and hit the brakes, so to ensure (or rather, hope) that at least his part of the train will stop accelerating in the same wall and will be stopped dead on tracks (even as the rest of it will continue to crash into the wall). Can't blame him for being corrupt or greedy as he tries to save something, even when it is not in anybody's best interest. Can't even connect anything like that to Putin's own ends, since he is in completely different situation (you know, like, the certain country dissolution right at the doorstep). But I can't ignore opinion of glaring russophobes, who see anything but complete and utter destruction of my nation as betrayal of entire North-Atlantic[0] race.

    [0]This is a sarcasm, naturally.

    795:

    All it's doing is documenting the change in approach that happened decades ago.

    796:

    Well, yes, there is a difference. In the USA, the rabid anti-Russians are desperately searching for something that they can claim is proof that Putin/Russia were and are manipulating the USA. In the UK, our equivalents don't bother doing that - they just claim it.

    As far as I recall, in the USA, three separate official or officially-demanded investigations found no evidence. Yes, naturally, Russian sites were used for some of the Facebook/Twitter campaigning (under 1%, if I recall) - as everyone in IT knows, Russia is one of the places where there are plenty of servers that can be hacked or bought for dubiously legal purposes.

    Hell, Russia probably did do some attempts at manipulation - that's what diplomats, foreign offices etc. are there for, and there's no evidence it had any significant effect. The USA does the same and more, and doesn't bother to deny it. In the UK, it is disgusting the way that we cover up for even gross manipulation by some countries (mainly the USA and Israel) and divert attention by blaming others (currently mainly Russia).

    797:

    Indeed.

    What I find interesting / similar in many Trumpites, Corbynites, Leavers, anti-Leavers etc is a preference for simple narratives with a single point of blame (be that migrants, Democrats, other countries, capitalists, Russian agents or what have you).

    The reality of course is that most historical events are highly multi-causal and difficult to understand - just ask a group of historians of the period to agree why WW1 happened.

    In the case of Brexit I can understand why it's appealing to believe that this dramatic change in the direction of the UK came about as a result of malevolent influences - if you are a person for whom Brexit is shocking, upsetting and doesn't fit with your view of what the UK was / is then of course you're going to search for an external entity to blame.

    It's much harder to acknowledge that the vote for Brexit was driven to a great extent by domestic pressures including, but not limited to huge swathes of the country feeling left behind by globalisation, the differential impacts of unskilled migration on the working and middle classes, the dominance of London in the UK's political debates, the professionalisation of politics, the underlying tensions between the EU's codicil legal system and the UK's (broadly) common law system etc.

    I suppose it's also harder to accept / believe that your fellow citizens genuinely disagreed with you about the direction the country should take and had felt like that for a long time.

    (I happen to think that healing the wounds opened by the referendum is a particularly important challenge for the country, which is why I helped found a group called "Brexit Together" for this purpose)

    798:

    While those WERE factors in Brexit, the main one was 30 years oc relentless anti-EU falsehoods and other propaganda, by most of the media barons, many politicians, most Whitehall mandarins (in effect), and numerous oligarchs and plutocrats. Note that the media barons, oligarchs and plutocrats are often non-dom. or even foreign, and Whitehall found it convenient to hide their devious, anderhand and often disloyal manipulations behind a smokescreen of the EU.

    I was one of the people who was NOT surprised by the result - I had been expecting it, sometime, for over a decade. But, as I have posted before, what applied to Rome applies to us:

    Who groans beneath the Empire's Curse And strangles in the strings of purse Before she mends must sicken worse. Her living mouth shall breed blue flies And maggots creep about her eyes No man shall mark the day she dies.

    Brecksit means wrecksit. You will see.

    799:

    Re: BrExit ' ... expecting it, sometime, for over a decade.'

    Search pulled up this article basically confirming that the shift to the right was already measurable in 2010. Guess TPTB were just biding their time until the appropriate opportunity so that they could blame the result on the electorate rather than on the folks who paved the way toward that result.

    Wonder who the pro's were that provided policy guidance for some of the parties.

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2010/dec/13/social-survey-thatcherite-britain

    800:

    Um, Mr. Cynic. I just had to delurk to respond to your comment on how, "the rabid anti-Russians are desperately searching for something that they can claim is proof that Putin/Russia were and are manipulating the US".

    There is no need for a search. Trump and his staffers openly advocated for changes to existing US policy to Russia's benefit. Trump himself publicly solicited Russian assistance in attacking his opponent. Then sources tied to the Russian government released information that was potentially damaging to Clinton and her campaign.

    There can certainly be debate if that is acceptable, wrong, or criminal. There are many questions about the full extent and impact of Russian government meddling in our election, and what we should do about it.

    But that Trump sought Russian assistance and got it is as close to fact as anything involving human relations can be.

    801:

    It's a mistake to think that support for Brexit at the voters' level was about a shift to the right in that sense - or to confuse nationalism with that sort of monetarism. While they often go together, they often don't, and they didn't in this case. I agree that it WAS relevant to the people I mentioned in #740. It's on the record why the Dirty Digger dislikes the EU.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/anthony-hilton-stay-or-go-the-lack-of-solid-facts-means-it-s-all-a-leap-of-faith-a3189151.html

    802:

    Sigh. PLEASE read what I say before jumping in. Yes. And all that is SOP by most countries with an international presence - as I said, that's what diplomats are there FOR. But what they are desperately searching for is something that they can claim is proof that Putin/Russia were and are manipulating the USA. And it is that which is conspicuous by its absence, as has been stated by several official reports.

    Compare it with the actions of Israel, where there has been clear evidence of such manipulation over many decades, but no witch hunt.

    803:

    Having just read a string of very scary 'You're all doomed!' comments above, decided I needed some optimism and maybe even a few tips on changing the playing field. So, here's a how-to book for dealing with a common workplace (and, increasingly, head of gov't) problem:

    https://www.vox.com/conversations/2017/9/26/16345476/stanford-psychologist-art-of-avoiding-assholes

    804:

    Re: Right shift

    Protectionism was the key Brexit 'Leave' message and (imo) protectionism is just another aspect of isolationism because it's the cheaper and lazier way to hold onto power and maintain the pretense that you're still a world power. (I'm not dissing all Brits, only communicating my perception of the BrExit messaging/melodrama.)

    Thanks for the article! Kinda confusing in some parts because near the top the author says: 'As anyone trying to follow the EU debate will by now have realised, there are almost no undisputed or undisputable facts to support either side.' Then he goes on to list a bunch of measurable, demonstrable facts.(Crappy copy editing?)

    Both items above suggest that UK* politicians/media have decided that promises work better than facts/what really happened for manipulating the public. OOC, is there some UK custom or legality that prevents people who know/have access to such data from reporting/circulating it? (Similar to the UK aversion of joining/publicly supporting a political party because it might reduce your chance at getting a well paying job?)

    • Okay, probably generalizable to most other countries, incl. USofA.
    805:

    Yes, roughly, though our protectionism wasn't the same as the USA's, which got Trump elected, and it wasn't the same as the Thatcherism you referred to in #799. I agree that they all tend to go together, but protectionism aren't the prerogative of the 'right' - they are equally common on the 'left', especially in the UK.

    It is possible to make a good case that many of our social evils of the form described in the article you linked in #799 were, in fact, started by the 'left' with their 1960s mantra that benefits in kind were degrading and they should be given in cash.

    806:

    Assholes are like Charlie's Residual Human Resources. You want to avoid them so you don't also become an asshole.

    807:

    Godspeed. Thanks! That (from me) was mainly some implied thoughts[0], including that at least one [geas] still [constrains] me at least, and all that implies, and that I have no desire to [unravel] it; quite the opposite.

    Also, pretty sky viewing at my latitude last night; three bright planets plus The Moon("Luna"): Moon-Mars-Saturn-Jupiter Current distance from Earth to Mars (Mars really is quite bright; plan to drag out a larger telescope tonight to look at these planets.)

    [0] Large Bayesian Surprises[1] are not just for H.S.S., apparently. So generally trying to be less obtuse. [1] That 2006 paper is widely cited and has inspired a lot of newer work - The definition of surprise — as the distance between the posterior and prior distributions of beliefs over models — is entirely general

    808:

    This is also true for plants (of which there are 250,000+ species and hundreds that are edible) and animals (ditto). Species that can be domesticated are generally a small subset of this planet's biota. It's an underappreciated factoid, because domestication is one of the major pathways by which species will make it through the 21st century. I guess it's a good thing that people are trying to domesticate everything from gut bacteria (E. coli) to rhinoceros beetles and snakes as pets, Aspergillus fungi for industrial uses, mice, rats, nematodes, and flies for lab use, etc.

    But that's not all, when you look at growing fungi commercially, it's a form of agriculture with a fair amount of growth potential, even in places where you wouldn't at first think it would take hold. For example, this article from Ozy: A Mushroom Revolution Takes Root in the Middle East and Africa.

    Finally, if you want to read the bible of the mushroom revolution, it's Paul Stamet's Mycelium Running. It's great fun, and Stamets' company Fungi Perfecti is a good place to shop for mycological things.

    809:

    But what they are desperately searching for is something that they can claim is proof that Putin/Russia were and are manipulating the USA. And it is that which is conspicuous by its absence, as has been stated by several official reports. The official reports that I've seen have been by the Party that ostensibly benefited from such alleged interference, and so can reasonably be downplayed.
    e.g. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-27/republicans-cite-bad-judgment-but-no-trump-collusion-with-russia (warning autoplay video featuring DJT!) https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4448600/House-Intel-Final-Report.pdf Or did you have some other report(s) in mind? (I haven't been tracking this closely enough.) Also, it's worth noting that elections in the US are two-party and generally recently very close on a national level, so small manipulations can have large effects.

    The Mueller investigation, which is large, tight-lipped, and has a lot of players, is the one to watch. Enough people are involved that squashing it would (almost certainly) result in very large anonymous leaks that might (depending on contents) damage some power structures in the U.S., with some collateral damage.

    810:

    Please grow up: Sutton is a 100% asshole himself[0], and the fact you've not bothered to check the actual psychology of his shitty little book is telling in extremis. He's Stanford MBA school, he gets off shafting Harvard who are more important and earn more money than he does and they actually changed Russia rather than wanking into a cup in the little leagues.

    Lesson #1: We're only here for Host.

    Host is swimming in waters where £100mil is small fry, and poking bears like Elon who have dedicated teams to fucking those they don't like and there's Mafia teams all around the realms.

    We're pointing out that even tiny green loving pacifist [these days -.-] SF authors can have heavy messing crews behind them.

    But... and here's the rub: Old Banksy (not the avant-garde artist) is shitting himself all over twitter tonight and teaming up with Ms. L. Mensch (I.O. seems AWOL) which is telling in itself. He's running out of allies, and there's a LARGE FUCKING MENACING BEASTY WITH TEETH OUT THERE. [BURNT TOAST - DON'T GO ON ANY YACHTS ANYTIME SOON, HONEY-BUN: YOU FUCKED THE WRONG BEAR]

    Oh, and if you want to be clued in[1], Merkel just gutted her revolting right-wing. He resigned, she didn't. Pie-on-face of Right-Wing BBC / Guido / Fascist scum.

    Anyhow, check Host's Twitter: the most important tweet this fortnight was the entire "Medusa as Armament via Athena" one. Because... Well. We might have done that. [trans: you're really not going to get that - ATHENA / MINERVA / [redacted]. You wanted her back?

    She hates you. She cursed you so that any time you heard music it would be torture. She was raped. She knows you spend [trans: souls / mind / money / time] destroying the Minds of those who hear her.

    But - here's teh rub.

    We're not H.S.S. And given the data, it appears a significant majority of your species don't give a fuck about survival.

    ooops

    Tinnitus? The sound of the Brown Note?

    Boys, we're going to cave your fucking skulls in when we return.

    Promise

    [0] Not everyone thought it such a sure thing. Shortly after Phills filed his case, in 2014, he says two Stanford professors who have taught leadership, Jeffrey Pfeffer and Robert Sutton, allegedly made a small wager—the stakes: dinner at a fancy San Francisco restaurant—over whether Saloner would last another year in his post.

    Inside Stanford Business School’s Spiraling Sex Scandal Vanity Fair, Dec 2015.

    Yeah - author of book "Assholes" bets on serious sexual scandals. YEAH, FEEL THE AUTHENTICITY BABY.

    [1] Hello Af Neil, supporter of Fascist Orban

    811:

    [Different User]

    If you want dirt (and libel) on Leave.EU, check out https://zelo-street.blogspot.com/

    They've been running quite teh story, including NCO investigations and are quite good at what they do. Even Private Eye and the FT are putting the poke in about 5/7[0] years losses and Malta. Or is it Gibraltar? All these tax havens and mobsters, can never keep up. The irony that Brexit shafts their access is... well. chef kiss

    If you want actual financial data, German Bonds / Derivatives, how the USA is about to crash (auto / student loans) etc, then you pay for it.

    £100k / Month ~ we cost more, since we can altar Worlds.

    nose wiggle

    Oh, by the by: 2015 - Queen's Speech - "Our Last Christmas".

    Turns out we want things to evolve, not devolve - and the young Princes have done enough (within their carefully scripted mediated bubbles). The Rosemary's Baby garb was a bit much though.

    @Davidcshipl(e)y - just trawled your Brexit stuff and noted all the names attached and mapped all the connections. Hint: You want to back something new, fresh and vibrant. Not regurgitated old shite from bad Think Tanks.

    @SF: Sea bird # have majorly crashed (it's the eels) to stupid levels in N. UK. (And many other places). We're a bit beyond the old 'calls to civility', you might want to start working out how to cut power to major data centres...

    About..

    Now.

    [0] If you want to cook your noodle: look up the meme "5/7 with rice". Ouch.

    [1] Malta = Eastern Mob. Gibraltar = Western Mob. Simples!

    812:

    "She cursed you so that any time you heard music it would be torture."

    I'd always put that down to the contemporaneous rapid increase in the availability of cheap processing power and of the popularity of phenethylamines about 30 years ago...

    813:

    And... 5/7 with Rice became a Reddit Meme. But if you want a data trawl, it's a Fight Club reference. That's as old as old Nigel getting 'uplifted' into his current role.

    Yeah: [redacted] at work.

    And yes, yes: eels, grep it, Iceland data. Two years ago? Bird populations crashing, alongside all the insects.

    You. Do. Not. Have. Time. For. Bullshit.

    Anyhow, meant to ask: we can never tell. Is this whole "lying cat while data is stating something else" like the entire point of your being? It's a known Russian humor trope, but that relies on not being able to be found out within 10 mins. Are you really all this stupid? Scary if True. What's the line... Oh, right: "Under Fascism institutions will not protect you".

    p.s.

    No, really. Someone (cough) really did just warp reality enough to put a fucking Fight Club reference into Brexit via totally clueless front men / Murdoch puppets / etc etc. And weaponized old Nige and moved the markets and shifted tone in the most ugly frothing neo-Fascist space and in crypto-currency land.

    If you want the Real Deal, Vladislav Surkov is being taught a very very pointed message about the capabilities of Western Power.

    No. Really.

    No, really. That moment when .RU and all others realize their Games have been used to transmit something completely different.

    Do Not Fuck With Us YT, Film, Fight Club.

    Oh, and when it crashes, it's not the oligarchs who win btw. We value little things like emotional integrity, joy, love and BUILDING FOR THE FUTURE. FFS, $8 trillion in QE and you. built. nothing.

    Anyhooo... anyone interested in .RU propaganda, try this from Barcelona (you might remember that time that a train got bombed just before an election where the lefties were slated to win and the lefties still won: Franco taught them (!!300k children!!) a thing or two about resilience.

    Oh, apart from Catalonia... )!(

    https://www.tesisenred.net/bitstream/handle/10803/308508/st1de1.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

    814:

    A more interesting question is "who really benefits from the idea that Putin is so widely influential?".

    Answer obviously Putin.

    Which all begs the question: "why is an anonymous account so desperate and desperately cross about anything that suggests Uncle Vlad isn't in the driving seat?"

    Congrats on beating the Spanish btw.

    815:

    Bullshit off for once.

    No.

    It's about ~millions of Minds dying and the Song being crushed and what the Romans did to (our) followers and so on. It's about witnessing [trans: Goddess / Gods / H.O.P. / collective unconsciousness] being killed.

    In short, it's about feeling/thinking/channeling what Genocide feels like while Wolves, Phoenix, Penguins[0] and giant penis/dogs flow across the sky.

    SHE. RAGED. AGAINST. THE. DESTRUCTION. OF. MINDS.

    p.s.

    Peeps in the UK who interact with the [redacted] better start shitting pants now. Mushroom, Mushroom, Badger, Badger... Insanity as a weapon via الجن‎ who hate doing it?

    Remind me how every. single. slave. revolt. pans. out.

    Hint: they kill their Masters. Usually via painful methods.

    Want some Sumerian? You're way outta your league, little men who inherited some dangerous toys and then ran shitty Mind games with them.

    [0] Really not shitting you about the penguins: we presume it's an entire Inuit thing.

    816:

    Dude.

    Trump appointed as his Commerce dude the guy who ran the Cyprus Bank that a majority of dirty .RU cash goes out of (apart from DB, where it was teh son of the Judge).

    You know what tells me you know nothing and have no pull?

    You never worked for GS.

    817:

    [Different User]

    Sorry, but that is a little too brutal for the English speaking sphere. He's only a little one, stop stomping him: in Rugby terms, it's bad form to stomp a weak opponent under you in a ruck.

    You don't have to remind the poor man that he's a failed analyst who never made the grade and that all the smart money either splits into geopolitical control or managing the asinine stupidity attached to oil wealth.

    He 'produced a film': everyone knows (including Mr Mnuchin, Bannon and even those Malaysian scammers who defrauded ~$1 billion and made "Wolf of Wall Street") that's polite speak.

    £50k (now denied) is little people league.

    @Dogs of War: he's made his break and so forth. Personal request - let the old Labrador wander in the Ocean. Unless it's a full clean, at which point, well: do the decent thing and allow his widow the decency of the Insurance Policy.

    @David. If you don't know how dangerous the Game you're playing is, well - we pity you.

    818:

    why is an anonymous account so desperate and desperately cross about anything that suggests Uncle Vlad isn't in the driving seat?

    She's an Avatar of a fucking Goddess you fucking tool.

    And you fucks think you've been ultra-clever torturing her.

    This is not a smart move.

    819:

    So to be clear you're now talking about yourself in the third person. Righto.

    What are you going to do, scary troll?

    820:

    1) you've obviously never played rugby and 2) you're clearly rubbish at research as I was never an analyst.

    821:

    Ok, let me break this down for you.

    You're under the delusion (shared by Banks et al) that what you imagine to be Reality and "How the World Works[tm]" is how things actually work. You're also under the delusion that you're a) in control of your own reality and b) have enough clout with certain things to prevent certain things happening. Here's what you've missed (like our Times reporters / Media Lens / Wikipedia etc).

    You don't and the wagon you attached yourself to does not recognize 'loyalty'.

    If you missed it, here's the kicker: this thread has been read, and there's [redacted] sniffing and raising and shaking their old old muzzles.

    Let's do it differently: We know we're immune because [redacted[0]] - we also know, with absolute certainty that you do not. Wag TV - whose getting that ~£2mil? Whose paying you to Blind-Spot Spitfire etc. You're little league. And that means expendable.

    Or, if you actually play Damage, your Master just got burnt by a Hotel Move and he's tired of fronting all your bullshit.

    [0] We will keep you alive to watch the death of your species and their Minds.

    822:

    thatsthejoke.jpg

    Anyone who is anyone in this little play has been an analyst for GS or JPM (like, you know, #768).

    The real joke is that you're assuming we're talking you you as a person. We're not. We're talking to the people involved that you represent.

    That's how unimportant you are, even considering that little .pdf "Brexit whooomp whooomp oh shit, please let us do this well" website.

    Errand Boy YT, Film Apocalypse Now 4:33.

    Hint: You've been made. And you don't have the backup.

    823:

    In a prior life one of my hosts was an England Flanker. The best position in Rugby, it was called "the shock cavalry of the Game, the ones who went hunting and clipped those unaware the ruck had unleashed its deadly little wasps".

    Well - Victorians, they were always a bit over-dramatic.

    p.s.

    Trawling your files now, they are: they're not that friendly, either.

    824:

    Who's "we"? The chorus in your head?

    825:

    What a lovely imagination you have. This does seem a strange way to spend you time though. Maybe take up a better hobby than fantasising that you're a gestalt?

    826:

    Sigh.

    Now this is just dreary. Please call us a 'Conspiracy Theorist' next: you'll want to d/l the entire of Host's diary first to get the jokes though.

    Maybe take up a better hobby than fantasising that you're a gestalt?

    gestalt ɡəˈʃtɑːlt,ɡəˈʃtalt/ nounPsychology noun: gestalt; plural noun: gestalts

    an organized whole that is perceived as more than the sum of its parts.</em>

    Don't worry, we know what you were aiming for there. You meant "Geist".

    Here's a tip: I know who is running LOA in your Mind. Nasty little fucker, isn't he.

    But ~ and don't let me down here ~ you've proven two things:

    a) You're shit at insults

    b) You're naked and alone in the dark dark night

    My Brother is Not a Nice LOA, is he? Screaming insanity and you'll probably jump in front of a train for this little debacle.

    827:

    Oh, btw.

    Little tip (should have asked Bill or the regulars): we run a scale when interactions occur.

    You provide links / novelty, you get points.

    We provide links / novelty, we get points.

    You're in the negative my little boy. Oh, and we also tracked why all those feminist sites have you flagged as "rapist".

    Naaasty.

    828:

    I'm not trying to insult you mate. I'm just a little perplexed. Tell me again about the goddess you think I've insulted?

    829:

    You're looking sillier by the post:

    https://www.eff.org/files/2014/07/14/jtrigall.pdf

    And, you're being very boring to Host and his neutrality rules. You're basically attempting to bait us into dumping some files [looks: yep, there they are] that would illegal to do so under UK and EU law.

    I mean: "Mate" - you're the genius behind brexit?

    You didn't even realize you were starring in your own riposte Brexit Video Propaganda

    Or... did you think that Hotel you're in is a 'safe space'?

    LOL.

    830:

    (Let's just say - in terms of "pee tape" it's really dull, but hey-ho)

    Youse a Made Man[tm], though, right?

    831:

    I've never claimed to be a genius or behind Brexit.

    Anyhow, I'm going to turn in. Good night.

    832:

    Nah, you claimed to 'produce' (which everyone knows means finance in teh bizz) some bullshit propaganda. And claim you were "important enough that you would have been contacted by the Russians". And we've all seen how limited your actual repartee is.

    Application for Mercy: Denied.

    Mate: you just signed your Death Warrant. Sleep Easy.

    Heart attack or Mental Ravagement that drives him to throw himself under a train?

    Serious Answer: Depends who is fucked off with him the most.

    /done deal

    833:

    @SFReader

    Well, you got to witness a prominent Brexiteer committing suicide, so we'll consider the "asshole" clause fulfilled.

    No, really.

    Weakness... Not a good look with his peers. Gonna break real easy if questioned.

    £100 billion: you think people will be playing nice? Fucking Insanity.

    834:

    Righto fella. Night.

    835:

    Serious question - if you really believe that then after what period of my continued existence would you conclude that you might actually be wrong?

    836:

    A Man so insecure he declares he is leaving, but lingers to get the last word. We do it ironically, you do not. It's "She" btw - but you knew that and that was your feeble grasping at straws.

    You have really bad taste in pr0n btw. It's Zzzzz. Tinder or Grindr? You have profiles now.

    Btw ~ you got cut off in 2017. We now know why. Went scurrying to the Brexit-but-not-Brexit-need-trade-deals peoples, aka Atlantic Council peeps.

    Too Bad.

    837:

    thatsthejoke.jpg

    No-one gives a shit about you or your connections or your supposed 'knowledge'.

    Hint: when someone calls you a Labrador, you might want to understand what that breed of dog was bred for (apart from, you know, being the keystone upper-middle class denomination that it is).

    You. Are. Literally. Too. Stupid. To. Be. Running. In. The. Fields. You. Pretend. And. That. Is. Why. You. Were. Employed. (And yes, just grabbed your ID sheet - fuck me, shitty uni, shitty job until this came calling, eh?).

    Getting it yet? You're a fucking tool, BOY.

    838:

    Just to skip ahead a little: Blunt Tools get Replaced.

    Mr Banks is feeling the heat: you're a note on an excel spread-sheet, doing his best to raise his profile so that he's spared. Spoilers: you won't be.

    And, to save us all your limited Mind and limited ability to understand the World: we're not living in a Hollywood Film.

    Jesus Wept: revenge of the fucking autistic muppets. Whose got your imagination? OH, I know, it's my Brother.

    839:

    Go to Bed. Try to Dream. Mapped, your Cortex is so fucking dull no-one wants to actually invade it.

    Had a word - they're just going to steal your higher cortex functionality. You might have multiple dreams destroying your self-image, not sure yet. But, basically - if your Mind is a restaurant, you're like an Olive Garden: no-one important wants to eat there.

    But, you're not in Kansas anymore, little fucking Boring Brexiteer.

    Now, I dare you: challenge me on this as "conspiracy theory". My brother will probably put the word down from above about it.

    840:

    @SFReader.

    You're in a bubble and it's dangerous.

    Here's a music video, 78+ million views:

    - I'm Not Racist YT, Music, Joyner Lucas, 6:55, 2017 - Yeah, warning: It's Racist as fuck. It'd be laughable if it was satire or his gut wasn't Confederate Stamped.

    Google's YT algo is currently putting it #1 refer if you watch Gambino's "This is America".

    Now, Gambino has 313 million views: but the video above gets 1/4.

    And that's your Reactionary Guard right there. Not. Fucking. Around. With. You.

    841:

    (spoilers: J Lucas = African American)

    842:

    I'm not trying to insult you mate. Since my name was mentioned, I'll concur that the one(s) with the names gets cranky without a proper diet of links. Think of her/them as interventionists from an old information economy where value is measured in novelty (or something at similar), and you'll do better. (Alas, Brexit was sold in part with lies, and lies also get her/them cranky.) Anyway, I've been noticing behavioral hints (related to public figures) of possible||threatened cleanup in the US, perhaps by .ru, and I was not involved in .ru/X/BRexit/US2016election. Be careful.

    Telescope time soon (for my longitude): Mars And Moon

    (Looking back through notes I now see another meaning for Avatar; had forgotten about that at least conciously. No link because I got strong words for something similar previously.)

    Made me re-savour the end of INB's Excession. (No link because only illegal copies online, that google will find.) Zreyn shrugged. 'I'd just like to see it do stuff like that, I suppose.' She looked up at the sun-line. 'Making and moving all that rock, creating small oceans… You have to remember I don't take all this… power for granted the way you do.'

    Dajeil folded the sun hat's brim up and squinted at the other woman, who made an awkward gesture.

    'Sorry; is my primitiveness showing?'

    843:

    EC @ 805 EXCEPT, of course that one area that The Madwoman wasn't mad was - Europe - she believed that EU was to Brtitains's advantage, provided one actually fought your corner properly ( As do the French for example ) How the current rightwing ideologues who claim to worship her square that with their fantasise is a matter of wonder.

    ^^^^^^ And 22 posts from the seagull in the intervening space - there just might be some information in there, but life's too short. Which, as she herself reminds us, all too often, which seems a trifle counterproductive, don't you think?

    844:

    Well, I can't speak for the seagull[1], but to use myself as a model, I'm trying to reimplement my policy of "if you have some funny association or idea, say it or write it down, others might think it uesful, and anyway, else you'd just forget it". Me remembering things I said or wrote better than things I just thought of being a pleasant side effect. I also have a feeling it makes e.g. my emotions more real...

    As for the information content, hm, you know the demon of the second kind? Maxwell's demon is so trivial, you see..

    https://dallingtonsmithdita14.wordpress.com/2014/10/26/a-demon-of-the-second-kind-stanislaw-lems-take-on-information-theory/

    In other news, my mother started praying for my cousin, which if only in this case might be a good sign, she didn't cry when her sister died, it's just emotions shut down when the pain gets too large, so some sign of her caring is welcome.

    My cousin's family going from irreligious (the uncle with the cigarette) to Protestantism (her sister talked about archaeological finds at Mt. Ararat back in the day, let's not go there) is another issue...

    Personally, I'm still keeping my distance and trying to heighten distress in my parents. Maybe they might change their behaviour, but at least they will think twice before calling me to make repairs in the future. You see, they might think me little Johnny Head-in-the-air,

    https://germanstories.vcu.edu/struwwel/guck_dual.html

    but I never saw my parents or my brother with a drill or similar tools. Either even worse executive abilities than mine, or anxiety what might go wrong.

    845:

    Err, as for [1], I have been trying to visualize a line from this song, kinda like the intro to a Simpsons episode:

    I dreamt that I was perched atop a throne of human skulls On a cliff above the ocean, howling wind and shrieking seagulls And the dream went on forever, one single static frame Sometimes you want to go where everybody knows your name

    Well, so we have a seagull with dissociative identity disorder. As for the throne of human skulls, maybe the Crimson King might be an idea...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimson_King

    Or "Skull for the Skull throne"?

    https://1d4chan.org/wiki/Khorne

    (Let's just say 25mg quetiapine is somewhat better with my sleeping problems, e.g. shutting down in the evening, than Warhammer, even though a friend recommended the latter. It's also better than beer in this regard.)

    847:

    That was my point. Isolationism and Thatcherism are not just two aspects of the same characteristic, though our current bunch have both diseases.

    848:

    I can't remember, but I had noted your point. However, all of the accusations have come from people with a vested interest in either stoking anti-Russian hatred or in bringing Trump down, so I don't trust what EITHER side claims! What is conspicuously lacking is clear evidence (let alone proof) of the claim that is being made that Putin/Russia were and are actually manipulating the USA and its elections.

    I accept that there IS evidence of Trump, Kushner etc. behaving improperly, including with Russian agents. But, as I said, both USA candidates doing that with Israeli ones and the USA doing to other countries are SOP. Yes, by all means throw some water at the Augean stables, but don't divert responsibility by banging the drums of war. We've seen far too often how that ends up.

    849:

    Maybe it would help to clear the air and declare no negative intentions. Saying the USA has certain features that the rest of the world finds "mind-boggling" is not intended as a criticism, it is just a statement of weirdness and exceptionalism. These features may well have perfectly reasonable explanations, but that doesn't make them not weird. On the other hand, we are talking about a per capita discrepancy of around 112 times (focusing on the police service example). It doesn't make sense to explain that in terms of population difference (at least, not on its own).

    California, for example, is quite similar in population (and not very different in land area) to Poland, a country with a single centralised national police service. Texas, as you point out, has a slightly larger population than Australia, yet Australia (which comprises 6 states and 2 self-governing territories) manages quite well with police services organised at a state level.

    Administratively it would make more sense to compare Texas with Queensland, as the geographic spread and mix of large cities and towns is similar (although Queensland is 2.5 times the geographic size and a 0.2 times the population). The similarity lies in Queensland being the least centralised of the Australian states*, with several provincial cities ranged up the coast. The Queensland Police Service was established in the 1860s, every police station had a horse paddock and communication was by letter (carried horse-drawn coach... and later by telegraph). It isn't that you needed to send away to the city to get a policeman to come - it's just that the local police station was (and is) a branch office, not an independent entity reporting via the local council.

    I'm not saying this way is right and the US way is wrong, just that the US way is weird. Germany, as another example, the most directly comparable European nation with a federal system of government, organises its police at a state level. You might argue in that case the differences in distances are a key factor, but in that case you'd also be largely arguing against the case you make in terms of comparisons with Australia - ie, trying to have it both ways, arguing diametrically opposite sides of the same case to justify your position in different contexts. I'm not saying you are doing that, of course, as it's fundamentally dishonest.

    The point, anyway, if there is one, is that the history and culture of the respective societies has more to do with these differences than population difference or geographic difference. And that's the thing that is interesting about the topic. Why does the USA place these services at the local government level, while most other places, including places where the populations are similar, do not? I'd suggest that there is a very reasonable aim around local self determination at play in these histories, though I'd also argue that this is less (not more) effective over certain population sizes - given the need for co-operative co-ordination between services - and ultimately very inefficient.

    This has made the USA a pioneer in all sorts of ways of sharing information between disparate organisations, incidentally. It can never work as well as communication within organisations, but it's useful and applicable in places where the structures are different.

    In terms of macro level governance, it means everything is at multiple additional levels of remove. As a macro level regulator, you can't set policy, you can only establish policy frameworks, solicit different jurisdictions to align with them, and measure and report on alignment. Standards for things like procurement or information security are not impossible to establish, just extremely challenging.

    But I'm sure I'm not saying anything you don't already know (well, other than the bits about Australia).

    • The most weird and exceptional demographic thing about Australia is that half its population lives in the largest 3 cities (Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane) and most of the other half lives in a city of over 100,000 people. By the time you include all the towns of over 10,000 people (of which there are less than 100) we're up to 91% of the population.
    850:

    I have to admit I always wondered how you and the Many-Named-Entity would hit it off. And as I suspected you have a better take on how to interact with her than anyone else here. Thanks for the "model;" it might be a quite useful suggestion in more ways than one.

    851:

    Well quite. It comes to something when the Tories can't even do Thatcherism properly anymore.

    852:

    Well, it's just a model, and I still haven't come to a final verdict on myself; it's just that a former friend's models (inter alia "Trottelreiner, you just want to show off, and you think everybody is interested in your thoughts" when I think about them as more of a starting point for discussion) not that appropiate. At least most of the time.

    I must admit I'm not reading much of the many-named one, I'm quite occupied with the chaos in my own head, sometimes quite dull clouds, sometimes a colorful sunset or sunrise or rainbow or...

    Especially if I'm somewhat excited as now. (Personal working theory ATM is I have a low level of arousal usually but get activated quite easily, with a hyperfocus that keeps forgetting things.)

    (I'm not sure if some of the persons reacting most negatively to the many-named-one have similar problems, at least with the "chaos in their heads". The former friend I mentioned above at one point being diagnosed with ADHD might indicate something, we hate in others what we hate in ourselves. And doing the straightening out is not something that comes naturally to us, either)

    As for models, actually I have a feeling I'm getting to know myself for the first time. Again. (as usual after a long or severe depression and when socializing again)

    Guess I'll have to think about all of this a little longer, I remember a quotation from Nietzsche, to the effect of "a sentence being the death of a thought" (echoed in a song by Rantanplan[1], of all places), but for the time being:

    Masters of the first rank are recognised by knowing in a perfect manner how to find the end, in the whole as well as in the part ; be it the end of a melody or of a thought, be it the fifth act of a tragedy or of a state affair. The masters of the second degree always become restless towards the end, and seldom dip down into the sea with such proud, quiet equilibrium as, for example, the mountain-ridge at Porto fino - where the Bay of Genoa sings its melody to an end.

    from "Joyful Science"

    As for the Many-Named-One's writing, I'm somewhat reminded of one of Mhari's favourite writers (there were many, we were bookworms...), James Joyce,

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Joyce

    and her taste showed in the way she talked that time around. ;)

    (Which reminds me, I trying to start DeQuincey, again, but I (re)read "Dubliners" soon.)

    (It was also the time when I cried myself into sleep, realizing how similar Mhari was to me, and how, well, I guess I'd have said "damaged" at the time being, today I'd say "complicated". And then I realized I was somewhat "complicated" myself. And I realized some behavioural patterns that lead to said complications, though in retrospect I was a little bit to rash in some of my generalisations...)

    Err, sorry for the repetitions, I'm going through the same thoughts over and over, but thankfully with small variations, hoping to cover every dendrite eventually...

    [1] I might come back to Markus Wiebusch in some postings soon.

    853:

    Err, sorry for the mess; actually I sometimes have the feeling it gets worse when on medication, though that might be with me not even bothering to write down my impulses or thoughts or not even realizing them[1] or clamping totally down on them to spare me embarassment when off medication.

    Funny thing, I get much quiter again when on too high a dose of a psychostimulant, caffeine included.

    Guess I might add an editing session afterwards in the future, nonetheless, though that might make my texts even longer...

    [1] The picture in my head are bubbles coming to the surface or sinking down again.

    854:

    It's pastiche of their way of communicating. Mr Shipl(e)y was attempting to troll / threaten under a veil of politeness, the back-n-forth was @his Master, not him (he's Owned Property, see?).

    Ok, we'll go a bit slower (and assume that you're not witnessing the exact pitter-patter playing out in UK media space today between Guardian, BBC fat bois, German tennis players etc).

    It was, succinctly, foreshadowing today's interplay, including all the dross arguments / Mimetic Weapons the Leave.EU side are using. Because it's a play-book, see? Problem is, they're getting a lot of x-interference and you'll spot some strikingly similar thought patterns to what we've typed.

    Want to blow your Mind? Ok then - the Guard / Leave.EU drama-llama show is mostly UK people, Americans and some bots, but it's surprising what surfaces in threads about .RU interference:

    The sorcerer opened a portal of the evil in virtual reality and let out angrily having received instead of release of the evil magic power. The sorcerer turned people in robots. People.dragons and animals -robots. War of magic against virtual reality and robots. New Harry Potter. Twitter, Зайни Даут, 2nd July 2018

    Seems a bit mad, right? A bit seagullish? Well, here's the surprising thing: that account has been posting banal mash-ups of Western SF films / books etc for two years now and it almost always uses official media. i.e. the actual film posters, book covers etc.

    This time it didn't.

    And, if you check where the picture is from: https://www.tineye.com/search/12f20122f2916ffddddde8943afedd89185388bd/ you'll find something interesting. Look @ the locations / countries that have used it online. .RU and .IR ... with instagram accounts and a Telegram account[0]. grep the last time that went down, then the party afterwards.

    And if you want to really blow your Mind, assume that our .RU twitter user is describing reality.

    Mr Shipl(e)y and co are fronts. That .RU account? Probably not - but like us, it's fronted as a mad SF dreamscape.

    Clever, eh?

    p.s.

    @Host - this one might cause drama. But it's all so obvious.

    [0] https://telegram.org/

    855:

    Hm, one possible somewhat mundane explanation would be some member of the web brigades with a fetish for this image tasked with different war arenas.

    Though he/she/it might not even do it in his/her/its designated role, but to have some fun on the side...

    In other news, nice search engine, this tinyeye. Though I'm (again) somewhat surprised about the book ads it's throwing at me, I can get why it's sending one of Dirk's books at me, actually it might be in my search history due to me recommending it to a friend as German alternate history. But I'm somewhat surprised about this one:

    https://www.buecher.de/shop/buecher/die-rabbiner-der-emanzipationszeit-in-den-deutschen-boehmischen-und-grosspolnischen-laendern-1781-1871/gebun/products_products/detail/prod_id/24317049/

    Yes, I looked up "shegatz" recently on wiki. Or was it this article I stumbled about when reading this on rational wiki? Well whatever.

    856:

    I've seen the discussion of the non-politicalness of your Court.

    How's this: you need to a) have experience comparable to the level of the court, and b) be able to pass a Bar exam to practice before that court, before you can either run or be appointed?

    The OS surely would have flunked....

    857:

    isn't that essentially how the English / Welsh court judiciary works currently?

    858:

    I, certainly, would not assume all the money was coming from Russia. The ultra-Wrong billionaires in the US are perfectly happy to funnel money through economic tunnels to the UK.

    My take: they expected to devour and pick their teeth with the bones of the USSR when it collapsed, and were Very Annoyed that locals did that. They now expect to do it to the UK and the US, where there is a lot more money to be had.

    Let's be real: the US ultra-wealthy-wrong want a future that's a cross between the US in the 20's (no unions, no New Deal, no diddly), and the post-WWII American Empire.

    859:
    Oh, and if you want to be clued in[1], Merkel just gutted her revolting right-wing. He resigned, she didn't.

    No, he didn't. Not yet.

    Yes, I know: thatsthejoke.døc, isn't it?

    And here's a link, just so.

    860:

    Oh, She, the Many-Named One: brilliant job.

    I've also read/skimmed to here... and there's one thing that I find odd: perhaps you're right, that he was cut out of the money in April of last year... but why on earth would this Player in the movers and shakers be posting to a great, but in $$$ terms, very small player's (sorry, Charlie) blog, with a bunch of folks who, as far as he knows, aren't players?

    Why is he here?

    861:

    Sorry, you're wrong. The only reports that claim there's no clear evidence of Russian interference are ALL from the GOP. For example, the House Intel committee (headed by that jackass, Nunes) put out a report saying that... with no Dems from the committee on it. The Dems put out their own report, decrying that other report, and said, clearly, in so many words, that they had heard clear and convincing evidence of such.

    I objected to the US playing to deliberately cause the destruction of the USSR; I equally object to their returning the favor.

    And, of course, they're just helping out the ultra-wealthy-ultra-wrong in the game.

    862:

    Those are the Repulican-only-signed-off reports, not one Democrat from the Committee signing in agreement, and the Dems, as I said in a previous post, put out thier own report, saying that, based on the evidence, there absolutely was.

    https://democrats-intelligence.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=376

    Are you telling me you believe anything the GOP says?

    863:

    I'm sorry to disappoint but Spitfire really wasn't anything to do with the Brexit thing other than our decision to campaign for it. Frankly the business had failed (having gobbled up quite a lot of capital) by early 2017.

    (In fact my disillusionment with the libertarian right had been gradually taking root through 2016/17 for a whole raft of reasons).

    As to why I'm here, I'm afraid the terribly dull answer is that I've been reading this blog for years (although have hardly ever posted) because I'm a massive fan of Charlie's Laundry series.

    (And again, no disrespect to OGH but I can't imagine that good, but obscure blogs are necessarily the first place people interested in spreading dis-info or info would go)

    It's obviously hilarious that some people on here have decided I'm an MI5 front / Russian psy-ops entity / etc etc but I'm afraid the mundane reality isn't anything like as exciting.

    As to why I started posting on this particular topic, it's simple - I actually happen to know quite a bit about it. Given the response I think I'll probably return to lurking and occasionally commenting on topics which are clearly less 'energising' on here.

    864:

    Well, yes: it's all a joke.

    It would probably help if you were from the UK & had been watching certain parties getting very hot and moist over the entire affair. Who also happen to be linked to our current discussion (cough Spectator / London Club Crowd cough). The Germans are all having a serious melt-down / argument (grep: 'let's nuke Germany') much to the joy of Brexiteers.

    Why is he here?

    No idea. (cough)

    Then again, he's ignoring the joke about "Whois @davidshipleysca?" who was high profile, managed to get on block lists from both the American new Left twitterati and the Gamergate crew, comes to the attention of the UK London media set and scrubbed everything in 2015. Also sent Lawyers after some bloggers.

    They're obviously different people, of course: the new version is bald with a beard, not the suave dapper long haired foppish London Asset Manager. Who is being scrubbbed. Or was, past tense.

    Anyhow, Host missed a deadline, so we'll stop distracting you. The .IR spooky link is free (!) and we're quite damaged from all this effort.

    Currently reading: Revenger by Alastair Reynolds, 2016. Departure from his usual canon, it's a nautical slant on sun-sails and young sisters Mind-melding with ancient alien skulls.

    cough Might be relevant to interests if you like your parallels.

    865:

    Again, I'm afraid the mundane reality is a bit duller. Those are both pictures of me. It's amazing the difference 5 years, and hair loss cause.

    If you're genuinely curious why not add me on facebook and see the actual progression?

    866:

    And if you want to really blow your Mind, assume that our .RU twitter user is describing reality. Now you're just teasing. The sorcerer is way too close to the Earth (unless the window ... magnifies), and that window is really retro (unless it's a playful skin on e.g. a neurally-integrated sensory apparatus), and what's with the suit? (Is it a covert operative's "Power Suit"? Or is space just cold? :-)

    Thanks for the tutorial on tineye, nice tool. (They need a semantic search, if they aren't already working on it.)

    867:

    Because we're not interested in you.

    But, let us say: if we know past identities perhaps it's not a smart move to pull out your old (outmoded) trolling techniques honed on twitter? Clean p(l)ate, new start, eh? Oh well, Leopard and Spots and All That Jazz.

    Also: please do not Logical Fallacy us. If you got ID'd immediately, do you really think it's you who we think is "MI5 / Russian psy-ops entity", eh? Panto Mode: It's behind you!

    But that .RU twitter account: 'hmmmm, that's the real deal'... we can smell them a mile away

    868:

    I'll bite, She: which Loa is your brother? (Yes, I long ago read all four of the books in English that are for real, not bs about Santeria/Candomble/Vodoun....)

    869:

    I dunno. I would very much enjoy meeting her.

    But then, remember, I've been married several times, to women ranging from impressive and wonderful (my late wife) to a serious alcoholic who was a mean drunk (my late ex)

    870:

    Interested enough to write scores of comments and keep commenting after you've claimed you aren't interested. Interested to claim that a picture of me from 5 years ago isn't me. Not interested enough to add me on Facebook and find out if you're right.

    The refusal to even look at or consider that evidence that might show you are wrong is a classic hallmark of conspiracy theorists, of course.

    I got "ID'd immediately" because I post under my own name and drew your attention to my links with Brexit: The Movie. I also have a Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, Facebook etc account in my own name.

    Obviously I'm really impressed that you managed to find some further details about me based on that information. Bravo.

    On a serious note though you should think twice about some of the remarks you make - a vulnerable person could actually have been quite upset / damaged by some of the "you're going to be killed" chat you were coming out with the other night. Thankfully I'm halfway robust and have real (health) issues to worry about so water off a duck's back but you should consider the actual harm you might do with this kind of approach to people online.

    872:

    Nah, it's a window.

    873:

    You mind if I get my popcorn? I have a serious 2000s German usenet flashback,,, ;)

    https://www.reactiongifs.us/popcorn-stephen-colbert/

    874:

    Was it really still a thing in the 00s? I was mad for Usenet in the mid-90s but I don't recall using it very much post-school (2001 onwards)

    875:

    Suppose, I arrived a bit too early. I was expecting some big hit around the time of World Cup like it was last two times (Winter Olympic in 2014, before that Chinese Olympic 2008), but for now, nothing is acting up. Patterns do match, the shaky situation in many areas, even the strained silence of media. However there's a couple differences. First, the event is not over yet, so I can not relax too much. Second, World Cup is not the same as Olympics, but it is not as destroyed by dope scandals as Olympics is, and therefore a good opportunity to discharge some cannons all over again. We'll see. If one of the worst scenarios is going to realise, shit is going to hit the fan with supersonic speed.

    Web brigades is something like an urban legend for what is known - it would completely impossible to deduce anything even if they are based on decent amount of funding and support. Imagine the actual influence group that you have to locate through mass media - they aren't there and anybody would deny any involvement, and IP sifting would bring you nothing because of the background noise. (I consider myself a part of background noise, for one). Second limitation would be the language barrier, as it was noted on the first contact in this thread. There's a lot of hot discussion going on in Russian-speaking Internet post-2014, but it is not like before was any much different before (the titular name is "хохлосрач").

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraines-lonely-cyberwarrior-vs-russia https://economics.unian.info/10104491-u-s-to-double-cyber-defense-aid-to-ukraine.html https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/02/why-us-cyber-warriors-cant-do-anything-about-russian-cyber-meddling/ All you need to do is to hire a lot of young, unemployed and socially disgruntled people with poor education, and task them with spreading certain information on social nets, as directed by hierarchy. It is old-fashioned, rigid and straightforward Cold War tactic. I imagine the faces of those CIA "employees" (tasked with creating active subversion teams to infiltrate Russian media sphere on the Ukrainian direction), running directly into century-old quagmire of mutual stereotypes which benefits no one and doesn't lead anywhere. In fact, they are probably fighting the lost war ever since. Whipping the sea left and right.

    There's good old parable that describes the situation with web activism, I heard it at the dawn of modern broadband age. It requires some translation/deciphering, as usual. https://frie.livejournal.com/713998.html

    876:

    That's a very interesting thought.

    What I will tell the Brits is that they should investigate this all very carefully before doing anything irrevocable.

    877:

    I can only speak for German usenet, so...

    It was still there, but the user numbers were dwindling; still, I had quite some fun on de.rec.sf.misc.

    In 2008 or 2009 I was forced to move from my appartment because my landlord wanted to lay out parquetry (I might have staved off moving somewhat longer, but saw no use in it), and when the chaos subsided somewhat my university had shut down its server because there were only two or three people still using it. I have no idea who the other one or two persons were. And I never got to signing up on another nntp server because

    a) the fun of setting up an identity and b) my brother discovering google and me deciding to go for online pseudonymity

    Though leaving usenet didn't become me in the long run, I must add. In retrospect I must say it was quite energising, in a good way.

    878:

    davidshipley @ 863 Please donb't return to "Just lurking" Simply ignore the sagull's rants & address the rest of us, who are more or less sane ( Or so we claim ) Also notice her usual get-out line at the start of # 864 Well, yes: it's all a joke ....

    870

    Ah you have noticed the contradictions & false claims - she did this to me several times Take no notice - please?

    879:

    Ha! Thanks for the words of encouragement. I don't think I've encountered someone so strange online since the Usenet era.

    880:

    I hadn't heard that the Democrats on the committee had put out a minority report; thanks for that information. What I said was correct, though - even if those were entirely party-political, they WERE "official or officially-demanded investigations". But see my reply to Bill Arnold in #848 - even if the acquittals are worthless, what I have seen of the accusations are, too.

    And I assume that you have noticed that the 'evidence' that the Russians were doing state-sponsored doping has been thrown out when it reached a court that took some notice of evidence? As the Russians said, that was another 'dodgy dossier' (which was actually forged to order) by someone with a grudge. And more evidence has emerged that some other countries were doping. It doesn't mean that the Russians WEREN'T doing that, but that their conviction without trial was a hate campaign by their enemies.

    881:

    Yeah davidshipley, Agee with Greg she is mid likely clinically insane, a lot of us just filter her, generally bad to respond and give her the attention she craves

    She sure does a bang up job of chasing off the new blood though

    As far as Russian Money going to support Brexit, the most affective use is not to pay someone to believe what you want, but to find someone who already believes what you want and give them money to be more effective at implementing that belief. More likely to stay bought that way, and they don’t even have to know you exist

    I don’t think the idea that the Russians have been meddling is lunatic fringe

    882:

    It won't happen, because the establishment (media, politicians, bureaucrats and plutocrats) all have a policy of hiding it. As I said in #796, the anti-Russian campaign is partly an attempt to distract from such facts.

    883:

    I still follow some groups that are active - nothing compared with what they used to be, of course.

    My organisation closed down its news server, which had quite a few active groups, on the political grounds that Usenet was for old fuddy-duddies and the younger generations wanted Web interfaces. Their shiny new Web interface had less than 10% of the activity of the local Usenet, possible much less - I have no idea if it has been closed down.

    884:

    I think we agree on this - I'd be astounded if the Russians weren't spending money and sweat trying to destabilise the West generally. Equally it's absolutely possible that some Russian money ended up funding Leave and / or Remain mouthpieces.

    I suppose where this falls down for me is that I think it's much more useful / accurate to see the EU Referendum as a battle between two different strands of UK elite thinking, and driven by primarily domestic forces.

    885:

    Yeah, I mostly stopped following usenet, just because a lot of folks had abandoned it for the Web, and the fucking spammers won, even if Canter and Siegel lost.

    They destroyed the communities. The 'Net should NEVER have broken with "fari use".

    886:

    @Trottelreiner just fyi you might want to do a quick test for ADHD (which is very prevalent but underdiagnosed)

    your arousal / hyperfocus remark made me think of it

    http://www1.psykiatristod.se/Global/Psykiatristod/Bilagor/ADHD/WURS_ADHD_.pdf

    oh online version. havent checked it. https://jmullee.github.io/WURS_htmljs/WURS.html

    887:

    I don't think I've encountered someone so strange online since the Usenet era. Stranger than you can imagine; read the archives, do a depth-first rabbit-hole search on some of the material. Anyway, your skin is pretty thick and it's fun to have a new voice here, just expect pushback on certain topics. Same to sleepingroutine.

    Struggling to understand that Russian tweet (in English) linked above. Any Russian speakers, what exactly was it trying to say?

    888:

    And I assume that you have noticed that the 'evidence' that the Russians were doing state-sponsored doping has been thrown out when it reached a court that took some notice of evidence?

    You're not thinking of the East Germans?

    889:

    Pre-Colombian religions are the best argument you'll ever find for colonialism and forced conversion. Davidcshipley, Twitter, 19th June 2018

    Also retweets Af Neil (subject in this thread) constantly and Guido Fawkes as well as the infamous IEA[0]. For those not online savvy: all that bully-boy chat is directly translated from private rooms that people David knows (and approves of) hang out in. On the night in question at that.

    We were talking to him in his real language, which he then attempts to feign outrage over.

    Projection indeed.

    Couldn't find the Window to the Light if there was a glowing neon EXIT sign printed above it.

    Agee with Greg she is mid likely clinically insane

    Or, more likely: we do actually know what their side is run by, and it's not pretty. They fantasize about throwing people out of helicopters and stirring up the stupid Tommy boys to kill MPs.

    Which, you know, actually happened.

    Bonus: also part of the TERF warfare / anti-abortion crowd, which is currently harassing sections of Twitter (Hello A_D).

    But ignore the Mad Cat Lady, enemies close & all that.

    [0] Institute of Economic Affairs: Rated E (lowest) http://whofundsyou.org/org/institute-of-economic-affairs

    890:

    (Glad to see you're still sufficiently "not interested in" me that you're reading my tweets - the offer to add me on FB still stands)

    I mean yes. I know Paul. I know the IEA. I've donated. I used to be the Chairman of their Non-Academic Advisory Council. None of this (other than the donations) is secret.

    The remark about pre-Colombian religions is a reference to e.g. the Aztecs' approach to warfare which was incredibly strange and (I think most people would agree) profoundly evil.

    For those who don't know, the Aztecs fought ritualised warfare using non-lethal weapons (e.g. swords made of wood) in order to capture huge numbers of slaves to sacrifice to their gods.

    I generally don't think invasion and colonisation is a good thing, but in that particular case I think it probably improved matters for most inhabitants of what is now Mexico.

    891:

    Agree with Greg she is mid likely clinically insane

    That's excessive, possibly cruel. Not normative, but probably a perfectly nice artist to meet*. I've got in-laws who are bipolar; have had friends who suffered from depression; and lived with a flatmate who constantly sought attention - and while they were temporarily injured, none were "insane".

    I block posts when using Firefox (haven't looked too hard for Chrome / Safari plugins), because the signal-to-noise is low and the arrogance is high; and ignore the occasional wonderfully ill-informed assertions that I see against me; but occasionally, she will make a rational, succinct, and perfectly valid post.

    • if slightly self-absorbed - but then I used to be self-absorbed, and still worry about being arrogant...
    892:

    Oh totally - healthy disagreement is a good thing (and I recognise that my politics are a long way away from those of OGH / most of the people in this forum).

    No idea on the Russian I'm afraid - I skipped those classes when I was being inducted by the FSB.

    893:

    Again, you misunderstand. grep certain things, we've been showing people like A_D the importance of OPSEC and how your side thinks but with the safe knowledge that we're not actually hostile, since we view trans* people as very much human, very much real with rights and very much not clinically insane.

    Which makes only one of us in this little tet-a-tet to hold that position. N'cest pas?

    You're literally fulfilling the grep prophesies written down - who you are is immaterial, it's the Shadow Behind You that matters / concerns us.

    p.s.

    Presented without comment: Reaction Pours in After Pope Francis Tells Gay Man 'God Made You Like This' Advocate, 21st May, 2018

    894:

    And again you misrepresent my / my views. Of course I think trans people are real, human, have rights etc. I'm not sure why you think I don't other than your obvious tendency to shortcut / shorthand rather than actually striving to properly understand.

    895:

    Err, I'vw been diagnosed with ADHD since 2004, any questions? Actually I was even somewhat involved with creating a German usenet group about ADHD back in the day...

    Problem is lately I'm not sure my symptoms fit the actual description and if and how MPh is helping.

    My quite bad auditive memory might be explainable by this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auditory_processing_disorder

    And I'm not sure if

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sluggish_cognitive_tempo

    might fit my behaviour somewhat better.

    (We're not going into autism spectrum disorder, it's complicated enough; I have strong special interests and quite some problems with irony and double meanings sometimes, OTOH, my empathy is such I cried when people killed wasps...)

    Problem is I realize

    a) I'm not that good at self observation, at least sometimes,

    b) I have come to realize I have been most likely dealing with severe depressive episodes since at least 16, maybe even 14 or earlier, and my cognitive and behavioural problems might in part be explainable by atypical depression, and

    c) I'm having a real big problem integrating different past "versions" of myself, it's not fullblown dissociative identiry disorder, but let's just say remembering you were elected president of the physics club at school back in the day was kinda funny, "hm, seem I was kinda popular back in the day, at least with the nerds". Overlaps with some kind of imposter syndrome. And I seem to behave quite different in different social settings.

    So I'm not sure me having problem initializing some new interests or being introverted is either lethargy (SCT), having learned I might not be able to stay with it or overtax myself and thus not bothering to start(quite compatible with hyperactivity) or just really being somewhat introvert and having a lot of other things going on, like immerse myself into ichtyosaur evolution on wikipedia(quite compatible with ADS, with the usual hints of autistic traits)

    The fact I have a feeling of getting more sociable on MPh doesn't help with my confusion, though than, if memory serves I started smoking tobacco because it helped me to listen to other people and not talk them under and lead to me becoming much more sociable, so that's nothing new. But as mentioned, my autobiographical memory is kinda strange.

    But then, I'm wondering if maybe I'm just soewhat normal and it's just my personal experience that is different, maybe somewhat neurotic; I'm more into TOS, but Start Trek TNG hat its moments, especially when Q became human and wondered why his stomach was hurting. You are hungry... (No, I have somewhat ruled out alexithymia, even though I have a problem describing my emotions sometimes; though then, I have problems describing much of anything sometimes, ask any local hardware store.)

    (At least, the symptoms seems to run in my family; if you want an illustration, I have seen some videos of Donald Knuth lately, and he would fit right in. Still no luck with getting my father into computer science, BTW, even with the organ angle.)

    896:

    c) is really interesting - I have had something similar since around my mid-20s - I find it quite difficult to integrate / relate to my past selves.

    897:

    Again, we're not talking to you as an individual[0]. Here's the Irony: you're not going to understand us - your gestalt comments already show that.

    But we really do understand what's at stake which is why we fashioned a gaudy little Monster to wake people up.

    Hint: dinosaurs. Mr Neil is looking very shaky at the moment, for instance.

    cluck cluck went the toys

    But since "it's a window, mate", we're done chatting. Tired of winning yet?

    [0] Harry Cole, the contributing editor of the Specator, the publication which initially published Moore’s utterance of “Brazillian Transexual” tweeted on Friday “Seriously? The tranny lobby bullied someone off of twitter for saying the ideal body is that ‘of a Brazilian transsexual’. Pathetic.”

    Cole, who also blogs for the political site Guido Fawkes, mentioned Pink News’ previous article about Julie Bindel’s controversial remarks about a “trans cabal”. He said: “good on her”.

    Guardian columnist Suzanne Moore leaves Twitter following transphobic row Pink News, 2013

    898:

    You are loved for whatever you happen to Be.

    'Tis known.

    /slinks off, enough prophesies for tonight.

    899:

    I really don't think anyone is winning our exchange.

    You do need to get better at your research though. Harry hasn't worked for Guido for years - he started at the Sun back in 2015 I believe. Poor detail-focus eh?

    It's not a window. It's a mirror. Everyone knows that, right?

    900:

    Sigh. This is your single use joke explanation[0] since you're not innocent / harmless like Greg.

    Harry devolved from the Spectator to the Sun Westminster correspondent (he's currently tweeting about a leaked budget and tax hikes on booze n fags etc).

    Dinosaurs evolved into chickens - cluck cluck toy being a reference to the Eurovision winner this year.

    The joke lies in knowing that the Shadows Behind You want to devolve humans while LGBT+ humans want to evolve humans into a broader spectrum[1].

    The funny part is one side has already lost, thus the jab "Tired of Winning yet?"[2]. The less funny part is that reactionary fucks are determined to burn the entire House down before they die because they're spiteful, small minded bigots[3].

    The meta-joke is that by 'winning' the Culture Wars, they actually lost their Humanity.

    Window? Get a step-ladder first.

    And we really are done.

    [0] This is a Fight Club reference.

    [1] Seriously: mis-representing cultural exchanges on child brides is pretty barrel scraping btw - standard fare Tommy Rot Emotive Hook Bait.

    [2] A Trump slogan.

    [3] c.f. USA, 2018

    901:

    Are we really, really done? Awesome. That's a relief I must say.

    Glad to hear you're continuing to read my tweets of course - sorry you don't like them. It's a shame you're unwilling / unable to actually engage in a dialogue though.

    902:

    And I assume that you have noticed that the 'evidence' that the Russians were doing state-sponsored doping has been thrown out when it reached a court that took some notice of evidence? As the Russians said, that was another 'dodgy dossier' (which was actually forged to order) by someone with a grudge. And more evidence has emerged that some other countries were doping. It doesn't mean that the Russians WEREN'T doing that, but that their conviction without trial was a hate campaign by their enemies.

    I have a strong reaction to doping in sport - I was a competitive athlete in an Olympic sport*, I was tested in and out of season, and I have a very low tolerance for the cheats, thieves, and liars who attempt to use banned substances to enhance performance.

    So I'm rather interested, because I haven't seen that particular piece of news anywhere. All I've seen is the announcement that WADA was not able to demonstrate sufficient evidence for ADRVs in 95 cases, driven by a fear that failure to prove guilt in one case will damage the remainder. That's hardly "thrown out". Feel free to read their explanation; essentially, they've reconstructed the original Moscow lab database; they've got evidence that the relevant sample bottles were tampered with after being sealed; but (obviously) haven't got the original contents.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/12/sports/olympics/WADA-russian-doping-report.html

    I'm curious as to what evidence you have to support your accusations (specifically, the rather serious accusation that WADA deliberately forged an independent commission report "to order").

    https://www.wada-ama.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/20160718_ip_report_newfinal.pdf

    Strangely, when UK athletes get caught, the UK government doesn't declare that it's all an anti-UK plot. When Canadian athletes get caught (Ben Johnson), the Canadian government doesn't claim it's a lie. When Lance Armstrong was caught, a spokesman for the US President didn't declare that David Walsh was "a Judas".

    I don't think it's a case of you misunderstanding the nuances of doping control - I believe you're just blindly parroting the Russia Today line, and the "Lance Armstrong defence". You know, "it wasn't proven", "everyone else was doing it", "it's only because of rabid anti-Russian hatred", etc, etc.

    Russians cheated, on an institutional scale. They got caught. Russia then lied about their athletes getting caught - you know, like MH17, the invasion of Crimea, or Russian forces in the Donbass. Consistent, if nothing else.

    • Not that competitive - the best I ever managed was a world ranking of 96th=
    903:

    http://spitfirecapital.com/

    Brand New Website, 2018.

    Bedrock (GCI) Ltd & Bedrock Alternative Funds Ltd, both incorporated in the Cayman Islands, owns Spitfire atm, via New Europe Advisors Ltd.

    Anna Maleva-Otto, who is in the top 50 Women Lawyers in various Hedge Fundy news (2014), who works for Schulte Roth & Zabel[0] is involved via her husband and has been on the Brexit interest People of Note[tm] for a while now, since at least 2016[1]. She obtained her MA from Saint Petersburg State University (Russia).

    Frankly the business had failed (having gobbled up quite a lot of capital) by early 2017.

    For a failed fund, it's certainly still got some interesting names attached / involved with it and a new website.

    (MK)U.L.T.R.A ... interesting choice of acronym they have for their brand new propitiatory software package though.

    Fascism is not defined by the number of its victims, but by the way it kills them.

    Always remember your four D's from the manual: https://www.aclu.org/sites/default/files/assets/gchq_cyber_attack_honey_trap_1.pdf

    [0] https://www.srz.com/lawyers/anna-maleva-otto.html

    [1] https://www.srz.com/images/content/1/4/v2/140289/071316-Brexit-What-Alternative-Asset-Managers-Can-Expect.pdf

    904:

    Re: '... if memory serves I started smoking tobacco because it helped me to listen to other people '

    Nicotine does a whole bunch of interesting things in the brain*. Read up on it when I first heard that there's a much higher incidence of smoking among certain psychiatric groups which made it seem as though these groups were self-medicating. (Yes - I know that inhaling smoke and various other chemicals in modern cigarettes is definitely not healthy. But maybe, like weed, some components of this product might provide a measurable benefit to certain groups.)

    *Nicotinic Receptors: Role in Addiction and Other Disorders of the Brain

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2817963/

    There's also this - important if you're on meds:

    Smoking and antidepressants pharmacokinetics: a systematic review

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5340025/

    'There are 4000 chemical compounds found in cigarette smoke and 43 have been identified to be carcinogenic. Cigarette smoke constituents have been shown to stimulate or induce hepatic CYP isozymes, which play a central role in drug metabolism. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) from cigarette smoke are responsible for the induction of CYP isozymes. PAHs have been shown to induce CYP1A1, CYP1A2 and CYP2E1 [9].

    Given the possibility that some antidepressants are metabolized by CYP induced or inhibited by substances in tobacco, their identification can be a guide for drug initial choice in smoking patients, allowing a more accurate antidepressant selection and consequently improving the pharmacologic treatment of depression in smokers.'

    905:

    Struggling to understand that Russian tweet (in English) linked above. Still not reliably understanding that tweet, after having skimmed the google translation (chrome) of the linked (fanfic+?) story at https://ficbook.net/readfic/6835963/17451580 Back to reading AR's Revenger (had bought it a while back, was down in the to-read stack). Fan of Alastair Reynolds.

    906:

    That's not the same company. Spitfire Capital Advisors is the company in question. The Spitfire Capital fund is a US west-coast based business that predates SCA.

    You really aren't very good at this are you? Would you like some tips?

    907:

    (To be more specific, SCA is not an investment / hedge fund. It's a corporate finance firm - M&A, capital-raising etc)

    908:

    ZZZzzz... Which part of filing all those noise making crap companies are we pretending to not understand here? This is very Mr Banks / SCL / Cambridge Analytica MO btw:

    "Totes not just folding down company X and ditching the liabilities and making company Z with exactly the same setup, cross-me-heart-guvnor!"

    EMERTA RING A BELL?

    This is the bit where the prophesy comes true: #768

    © 2018 Spitfire Capital Advisors All Rights Reserved.

    Spitfire Capital Advisors Ltd is an Appointed Representative of New Europe Advisers Limited which is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 09174790. Registered office: 1 New Cavendish Street, London W1G 8US

    SPITFIRE CAPITAL ADVISORS LIMITED

    https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/09174790/officers

    Dubose, who was your partner.

    NEW EUROPE ADVISERS LIMITED

    https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/06077156/officers

    Anna MALEVA-OTTO / (also CTOAN)

    Bedrock (GCI) Ltd

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001473640/000147364011000001/xslFormDX01/primary_doc.xml

    Mark Thadeous Otto (married to Anna)

    It's a classic: CAYMAN - NEW EUROPE ADVISORS - SPITFIRE.

    Nice little dance from tax haven to 'oh, Brexit looks like it's about breaking up the EU' to 'let's motivate the stupid patriots'.

    p.s.

    We're doing it this way because of Host. Otherwise we'd just dump some files.

    ZZZzzzz..

    LYING CAT IS LYING.

    © 2018 Spitfire Capital Advisors All Rights Reserved.

    Spitfire Capital Advisors Ltd is an Appointed Representative of New Europe Advisers Limited which is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 09174790. Registered office: 1 New Cavendish Street, London W1G 8US

    909:

    Out of curiosity, have you tried training for some of these (and also any nootropics alleged to be helpful for brain fog, e.g. choline)? Specifically, auditory training, and processing speed drills (e.g. working memory updating speed)? The literature is mixed, yes, but it's also mixed for pharmaceuticals. (I'm currently trying to focus on improving focusing/reducing distractability - never been tested for ADHD .)

    910: 229 tie-in, prize claimed.

    Oh, and this is just us playing around. Rub that Crucifix real hard sonny boy.

    911:

    We'd usually just dump the data map, but that would just attract attention.

    But this little setup is tiny-tot land.

    912:

    You don't know what an Appointed Representative is, do you? It doesn't mean that NEA owns SCA. It means that because SCA isn't directly authorised by the FCA, NEA essentially 'lends' its regulatory umbrella to SCA.

    Lots of companies provide Appointed Representative services for a fee.

    (https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=appointed+representative+services&rlz=1C1PQCZ_enGB798GB798&oq=appointed+re&aqs=chrome.3.0j69i57j0l4.4252j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)

    Like I keep saying, you aren't very good at this because you don't really understand the information you're reading. It's all a bit silly because if you actually bothered to Google the teensiest bit more you might actually realise that you're wrong.

    Obvious conclusion - you don't want to discover that you're wrong. It's the same as the "you can't have aged that much in five years but I refuse to view your facebook page to find out" we had earlier.

    913:

    Dumb Man doesn't realize what's actually being said. Like all good men of faith, likes to stick to literal textual meanings.

    Dude: https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/09174790/officers

    Check the people - 30+ appointments each = cut-outs for Tax Haven stuff. Everyone knows this. You're being trolled because you're a LYING CAT.

    Let us help you with this stunning jump of Logic:

    Michael Jackson is a sham director, a person who regularly signs important contracts and approves documents, even though he has no decision-making power. People like him often appear in the Panama Papers, and there are thousands of them in the Central American country’s publicly accessible company registers. These people carry out the tasks that the true owners of shell companies entrust them with. And they do this for hundreds, thousands, or even more than ten thousand companies. Without knowing it – after all, no one can possibly read so many documents – they even sign papers that drug cartels, autocrats, and tax evaders use to cover up their illicit business activities. Sham directors are needed to make shady dealings work. They lend their names so that the true owners remain hidden.

    Mossack Fonseca has denied that the law firm provides "shareholders with structures supposedly designed to hide the identity of the real owners". The law firm’s services are "always supported by the existence of legally recognized vehicles utilized for such purposes by all service providers in this industry."

    The Secret World Of Sham Directors Panama Papers

    The link-in we've given are people with a lot more money and who are a lot more interesting since you're not. i.e. actual players in this space. .RU spy or innocent Lawyer? Working for legitimate Capital or Oligarchs?

    Is there a difference anymore?

    TL;DR

    We even told you it was a Honey-Trap-Bear-Pit.

    Like I keep saying, you aren't very good at this because you don't really understand the information you're reading

    Well, we're in good company then.

    THERE.ARE.FOUR.D'S.

    914:

    Again, you're wrong. I know / have met all these people. They were employees of the private equity firm (RCV - James Caan's firm) that originally controlled SCA. Hence they were directors.

    (Noted that you're ignoring the fact that you entirely misunderstood what Appointed Representative means)

    As I said before it's pretty clear that nothing will persuade you that you are wrong. Which is amusing because that means that the person displaying excess faith here is actually you.

    Seeing patterns everywhere even when contradicting evidence is presented to you doesn't mean you're enlightened. It means you're confused.

    915:

    Did you mean Hamilton Bradshaw?

    By your account, that means that Hanami International Limited or Secret Escapes were part of 'RCV', correct?

    Again: literalism is boring. We know how the second tier works. We even know how the third tier works.

    Here's a joke you missed:

    As the credits rolled, Hunter DuBose, our American friend with the unstelling fixed grin, turned to them. 'Well, what do you think?' he asked brightly. 'Andy, I can't say anything,' Nigel muttered, which was code for 'I'm completed fucked off' 'I think it's shit,' Wiggy replied bluntly. '...Oh.' 'Seriously,' Wiggy fumed, 'you can't put our name to this. You're going to get monstered and we are not touching it with a bargepole unless you make some very major changes,' Wiggy instructed. The team slunk off and Wiggy had Jack from the press team prepare a clinical dissection of this horrible turkey before injecting an extra dose of bile and emailing it to DuBose.

    The Bad Boys of Brexit Google books, free and ugly.

    I mean, not sure why you're defending these clowns. They didn't respect you at all.

    916:

    But fixed grin in UK terms means "LOONY / MAD", and we even gave you an MK ULTRA joke to seal it in.

    Literally.

    As I said before it's pretty clear that nothing will persuade you that you are wrong.

    It's a Mirror.

    917:

    David I’m telling you don’t engage, especially on anything that you are an expert in. Her knowledge on most things is superficial and she draws the strangest conclusions from what little she does understand but you won’t ever get her to admit she is anything other then omniscient and it’s just generally a waste of trying. The cognitive dissonance is strong in that one

    918:

    He's not a financial expert though. He didn't work for GS or JPM: DuBose did, however.

    grep: ipse se nihil scire id unum sciat

    STUFF WE HAVE LEARNED: WHITE CIS OLD MALES REALLY CANNOT DEAL WITH COGNITIVE DISSONANCE.

    Oh, pro-tip:

    Колдун открыл портал зла в виртуальной реальности и выпустил сердито, получив вместо освобождения злую магическую силу. Колдун превратил людей в роботов. Люди. Драконы и животные -роботы. Война магии против виртуальной реальности и роботов. Новый Гарри Поттер.

    919:

    Anyhow, for a Man on Holiday Surfing, he sure wasted his time there.

    For the oldies: Brutal. Savage. Rekt. YT, Meme.

    But, again: no-one asked him if he shorted the £, he does spend a lot of effort online defending old Nige from accusations that it happened though. Wonder if he's into cryto-currencies?

    p.s.

    A lot of Wolves were watching this. That setup though. Pity the Mog-Fools-whose-getting-spanked-by-Elder-Tories.

    Son of a Preacher Man

    920:

    Putting on my moderator hat for a moment: I'd note that Charlie's very busy at the moment, and one more thing he doesn't need is random crap coming from this blog.

    The other thing I'd note is that most of us moderators are American, so we're not specialists in UK or EU law, and I (and I think all of us) tend to err somewhat on the side of caution, again because Charlie doesn't need crap.

    The point is to notice it's July. If you're aggravated, go out and enjoy summer, rather than making a mess that we'll all have to clean up.

    Thanks. We'll have more content coming soon, I think...

    921:

    Колдун открыл портал зла в виртуальной... First thing I tried. Google translate currently settles into an invariant after two cycles (E-R-E) for the tweet text. Not a big deal, I was in part just wondering if there was an available(&free) automated way to improve broken machine translations. Seems possible, if there is a broken/corrected translation corpus available that isn't already being fed (in part) into these tools. Any readers expert in this area or know of any papers addressing this?[0] This portal makes it easy to try a few different tools. https://translate.yandex.com seems interesting, though worse. [0] I see this: Exploring the planet of the apes: a comparative study of state-of-the-art methods for mt automatic post-editing (2015)

    @Frank Landis #920, heard. Though it would be nice for the thread to break 1000. :-)

    922:

    1000 would be nice. More people participating would be even better. I'll be up with something totally different next week, but until then, we've got another guest poster in the wings.

    923:

    O-Y @ 889 A true point (!) The “IEA” are in fact utterly stark raving bonkers, rather than a shadow rightwing group – sure they are right-wing, but it’s the bonkers bit that’s important. Over @ “London Reconnections” we came across them during a v long discussion on the non-closure of Marylebone & turning the rail tunnels into bus lanes … one of them came crawling out of the woodwork, & no amount of facts & demonstrations would convince him that he was off his head. HERE is an example of the madness

    The trouble is that a stopped clock is right twice a day & they are in favour of cannabis regulation & legalisation, which, of course puts everyone else agin it.

    davidshipley @ 890 Ah, so you have met Richard Wellings & (I think D) Withrington? You do realise that they are bonkers, don’t you?

    Martin @ 902 I have a strong reaction to doping in sport So do I: “Let them get on with it, it doesn’t matter at all & I DON’T CARE” Team spurts, the ultimate conditioning, especially for smallish boys to accept fascism …. Shudder.

    O-Y @913 likes to stick to literal textual meanings YEAH RIGHT ON, me too – unless it is obvious poetry or allusion that is, erm easy to follow? Almost all of the rest of us follow these simple rules & we still manage to talk past or misunderstand each other occasionally. YOU DO NOT - & that is the problem … & it isn’t us.

    davidshipley @ 914 Seeing patterns everywhere even when contradicting evidence is presented to you doesn't mean you're enlightened. It means you're confused. For additional references see ANY pronouncements by the aforementioned IEA on railways, cough.

    Frank Landis @ 920/22 Yes.

    924:

    If it's any comfort I'm really not the litigious type. Point made and taken though. :)

    925:

    I think I'll probably limit my remarks on the IEA to saying that while I used to be a libertarian my views have changed a lot in recent years (aka "I got better").

    On the names you mention - have met Wellings. Not sure about Withrington.

    926:

    That's excessive, possibly cruel. Not normative, but probably a perfectly nice artist to meet

    That's my impression too (on both major points). I don't block her at all, but I'm currently doing one cryptic crossword per week and don't have time for more.

    927:

    Greg, @923, your link seems to be borked. It looked interesting - could you please retry ? David

    [[ link unborked - mod ]]

    928:

    You were ignoring my points, which is that work needs to be done on the A-10 if we are not to have a hole in our abilities when the wings wear out (among other things) but the F-35 isn't ready yet, and that also, it might be a good idea to have something for all those indian wars and counter insurgencies we seem to have been fighting for our entire history, vs the few years of formal open warfare we've had.

    Seems the Air Force, however grudgingly, agrees with me, as they are rewinging more A-10s, and evaluating low end replacements (there are some serious shortage issues) https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/06/air-force-tests-two-turboprops-as-potential-a-10-replacements/

    929:

    The A-10 is a piss-poor CAS aircraft. It was never designed to carry out a CAS role, it was (and still is) a one-trick pony, meant to use up lesser-skilled National Guard pilots in a war shooting up Soviet light armour and transports in West Germany and getting shot down in great numbers by mobile AA guns and light missiles. That was more than forty years ago and it hasn't aged gracefully.

    It's underpowered and slow to respond to requests for support since it's slow, period (a max speed 200 mph slower than a 737 at cruise). It's vulnerable to ground fire if it gets close in to provide CAS with its raison d'etre, the GAU-8 gun and other faster smarter better platforms can provide missile and bomb CAS from further out and stay safe, go home, load up and come back again.

    It's a resource hog, it needs big improved runways close to the front line to operate from because it's slow, it uses up pilots and support personnel and doesn't provide a good operational return for the effort needed to keep it flying in combat. The fact it has a big sexy gun isn't a good reason to keep it flying, no more than big sexy guns on battleships are a good reason to keep them in service today. The USN finally got rid of their battleships once Reagan was ejected from the White House, the A-10 is still flying for no real reason other than an irrational belief in feel-good dakka.

    930:

    @davidcshipley

    Whatever about your film and so forth, do you share the view that something peculiar has been happening with the campaign funding ?

    Questions here https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/brexitinc/adam-ramsay/what-weve-discovered-in-year-investigating-dark-money-that-funded-brexit-me

    931:

    Well, actually, this is all about anatomically incorrect statues created by men:

    Me outside the sculptor's house at 4AM banging two dustbin lids together: WHERE ARE HER SNUBES, LUCIANO? HER SNAKE PUBES, YOU COWARD!! Collette on Twitter, 29th June 2018 - 118k likes (!)

    Statue: Medusa with the head of Perseus. The way it always should have been. Luciano Garbati. 2008. EarthenWare Virgin, 28th June, 2018 - 97k likes.

    Worth checking out if you're into the entire 'Arming Medusa' backstory that has been engulfing women's art twitter feeds.

    And yes, lots of actual Neo-Fascists invading an increasingly militant American woman-sphere.

    932:

    Much more interesting question! Interesting link - I wasn't aware of this particular entity that has been funding the DUP / Steve Baker etc but it's not uncommon in politics.

    E.g. There's another entity called the Midlands Industrial Council which essentially serves as a clearing house for political donations. The idea with these kinds of entities is to allow people to support political causes without being directly linked to them.

    Now, you and I might very well agree that's not a great idea and that political donations (above some level) should be identifiable but it's definitely not an EU referendum only issue in the UK.

    It's also not a Leave only issue.

    As to the film's funding I'm comfortable that we know where all the major donations came from. Kickstarter (where we raised, IIRC about £120k, average donation about £50) is, funnily enough, more challenging - I suppose theoretically someone could make lots of small individual payments to support a cause without it hitting Electoral Commission disclosure levels and it would be hard to track.

    (I hasten to add that I have no reason to think that we were the victims of something like this - a lot of people were very keen to see the film on screen and were happy to support us with their 50 quid etc).

    (from the article you linked)

    "it was steered by rich and powerful men (and yes, mostly men) who work very hard to keep their interests hidden." - yes, this is true. As I've said elsewhere in this thread I think it's much more accurate and useful to see the EU Referendum as a battle between two competing English / British elites. In that context a bit of funny

    The other piece I find interesting is the rule against coordination - it's a matter of public record that both the Remain and Leave designated lead campaigns were running regular (weekly/daily) sessions to share information / coordinate with the other groups on their side.

    Heck, I was at a couple of the (Leave) meetings. They definitely happened.

    My general view is that UK Electoral Law isn't fit for purpose in many ways (but particularly around how spending is accounted for / what 'bucket' its allocated to).

    933:

    Please forgive what is I'm sure massive ignorance on my part, but I would have expected the slow CAS role the A10 performs to be filled by skies full of drones in the future?

    934:

    The most interesting question to my mind is: Are you still a keen supporter of Brexit, and if so, why?

    935:

    That's really hilarious (and especially airy). Well except the bit about the Nazis - they just aren't funny anymore.

    936:

    Despite the apparent inability of our entire political class to actually cope with the difficulty and complexity of the exit process you mean? Yes I am still of the view that Brexit is the right choice for the UK.

    (I knew before the vote that the UK's institutional capacity for complex negotiations / decision-making had atrophied since EEC accession in the 70s, but my goodness I didn't realise quite how bad it had got!)

    For clarity here I was never against the Single Market or free movement - I'm of the view that EEA / EFTA membership would be best for the UK post-Brexit. I was also very much pro-EU until the late-00s. If the referendum had been ten years earlier I would have been a keen campaigner for 'Remain'.

    The part I wanted the nation away from was the 'project' of ultimately building a super-state / nation called Europe. I believe that is not only doomed to failure but that it will exacerbate existing extremist tendencies across the EU and ultimately cause exactly the kinds of harm and breakdown its proponents hope to prevent for all time.

    (I think recent political developments in Poland, Hungary, Italy and now Germany support this view)

    I also don't think that it is any longer possible to change the EU's direction (and it's certainly not something the UK is capable of). So therefore getting out before it gets really bad and the hard right are in-charge across the continent is the sensible choice.

    937:

    Frank @920: "July. If you're aggravated, go out and enjoy summer,"

    For certain values of July, perhaps?

    Or possibly for certain values of summer?

    The internet crossed the equator some time ago, so it's not summer were I am, more... winter. ;-)

    938:

    937: s/were/where/ Sigh.

    939:

    Re: ' ... super-state / nation called Europe. I believe that is not only doomed to failure but that it will exacerbate existing extremist tendencies across the EU .' and 'Poland, Hungary, Italy and now Germany support this view'

    This is a statement rather than an argument/explanation. I don't see how you're connecting 'super-state Europe' with right-wingers becoming more vocal. Please explain, connect the dots, provide evidence/data, etc.

    940:

    Interesting, but I'm not sure that this isn't just the flawed "sovereignty" argument dressed in better clothes and sprinkled with some after-the-fact justifications.

    Also: It was fairly clear pre-referendum that a "leave" result was going to energise the far-right and isolationist/xenophobic/racist elements in the UK. So the claim that Brexit was the only choice to avoid hard right radicalization in Europe doesn't seem to make much sense.

    941:

    Drones as currently implemented aren't really good for carrying out CAS or many other military intervention roles where rapid and/or overwhelming responses are needed. They're policemen on the beat, effectively, used for intelligence gathering while loitering in areas of interest. Some drones carry a small number of weapons and can hit a target or two but that's all, they don't have the punch of a "real" military aircraft. They're useful but not always the solution.

    It's likely that the next generation of strike-fighter aircraft after the current F-35 generation will be remote-piloted/autonomous rather than having a large chunk of the airframe mass/volume budget taken up to coddle a fleshy meatbag who can't even take 15 gees without blacking out or rupturing something. The tech to remotely pilot a strike fighter isn't quite there yet but you can be sure there's a lot of black-budget effort going into the communications, sensors and AI systems that could replace a tonne or two of human-rating mass in such an airframe with more useful hardware, weapons and fuel.

    942:

    I would also ask the questions:

    Should we seek to undermine a goal that seems to enrage hard right movements? If neo-Nazi types (lets just dispense with the "hard right" euphemism) are incensed and outraged by an EU superstate, shouldn't we perhaps ask why this is the case, and be wary of actions that seek to appease these elements and perhaps think about what benefits might accrue from such a project? If we rail against closer integration, and take action to isolate ourselves and reinforce toxic nationalism, are we not just allowing the neo-Nazis to win by default?

    943:

    Most Brexit energy came from right-wingers and ultranationalists in the UK, not from the socialists and even the hard left who generally saw a closer union within Europe as a good thing.

    As for expecting competence and capability with regards to simply preparing to leave the EU never mind negotiations about what happens afterwards, huh? The Tory party which is in charge of such things, being the Government party is embroiled in a civil war that is taking up all their time and effort. PM May's attempt to launch a Short Victorious War to win a mandate and quieten down the back-stabbers/benchers ended up costing her a clear majority and she's been in fire-fighting mode ever since then just trying to keep herself in power. Britain and Brexit can go hang as far as she's concerned.

    944:

    @trottelreiner

    if the MPh isn't working well there's a sequence of things recommended to try

    • methylphenidate, Lisdexamfetamine, dexamphetamine, Atomoxetine, guanfacine
    • bupropion, clonidine, desemipramine, modafinil

    And nutrient-type supplements like Noopept, oxiracetam etc.

    Hoping to try them soon myself : https://www.reddit.com/r/Nootropics/comments/4low4z/best_medication_and_nootropics_specifically_for/

    As for the exact labels, it likely doesn't matter too much:

    "A UCLA-led study, appearing Feb. 9 in Science, has found that autism, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder share some physical characteristics at the molecular level, specifically, patterns of gene expression in the brain." https://medicalxpress.com/news/2018-02-genetic-overlap-major-psychiatric-disorders.html

    @pollynom

    Though i appreciate the level of indirection necessary to avoid attracting attention of [redacted], your references are usually impenetrably oblique and obscure, the 15% or so I can parse is interesting, but i guess i don't spend enough time doing crosswords.

    A-10

    with the ebil russkies bolting iglas, strelas etc to BMPs and tanks, a-10's would be about as much use as stukas or mosquitoes. waste of a logistics chain imo. but go ahead, i've no dog in that race.

    945:

    And on a completely different topic ... heatwave & small critters

    Since last Friday we've been sitting in 40 plus degree Celsius real-feel/humidex. This large hot and humid slow moving air mass extends across half the continent (Great Lakes to the Atlantic) and is expected to linger until the weekend.

    Earlier this morning when I checked outdoors, I noticed very little bird song and am concerned for the critters. I've already set out some water but if the birds aren't flying and don't see it, then it's not going to help. Even the squirrels that usually run up and down the fences and trees around this time of day are missing/quiet. Any suggestions?

    946:

    Most Brexit energy came from right-wingers and ultranationalists in the UK, not from the socialists and even the hard left who generally saw a closer union within Europe as a good thing.

    That's my point. David's argument seems to be that Brexit is a good thing because it protects us from the rise of neo-Nazi (hard right, if you will) elements in Europe by supporting their cause in the UK and weakening the EU's ability (and our own ability) to restrain such elements.

    The more re-read and think about this argument, the more it begins to smell like subtle xenophobia: "We have to protect ourselves from those scary foreigners, they're the wrong sort of fascist, not at all like the ones we have here!"

    947:

    The usual morning wake-up chorus was going at full volume this morning. Less right now (9:30 in Toronto) but that's usual during hot weather. I wouldn't worry about it. The robins were active before the daytime heat set in, as were the squirrels.

    I was out on Sunday afternoon — mad dogs and Englishmen weather, definitely.

    948:

    If that's the conclusion you've drawn from my argument then I've expressed myself badly.

    I actually don't buy the "A vote to Leave makes the hard right more popular / emboldened in the UK" argument at all - and in fact the decline in levels of stated concern about migration since the vote would seem to back up my view.

    I also don't see a vote / campaigning for Brexit as "supporting" a Neo-Nazi / hard-right cause (although I would agree that those groups were likely all in favour of Leave I think the evidence is that they were / are a very tiny proportion of the Leave constituency).

    (As an aside what was really interesting about the Brexit campaign was the need to mobilise and enthuse wildly different groups who had totally divergent priorities - we did quite a bit of work developing the BTM messaging based on Ashcroft polling and advice from Dom Cummings. I'm happy to stick the documents on Google Docs if anyone is interested)

    So it's not that I see Leave as protecting us from "Johnny Foreigner and his unacceptable brand of fascism" at all - rather that I think 1) the EU's by-design limitations on democracy ultimately must tend to produce an environment where extremists get elected into national parliaments, 2) greater local / regional / national democracy actually serves as a prophylactic against this and 3) if we can't change things across the EU then I'm afraid we do need to look to ourselves first.

    949:

    Couple of points:

    1) I don't buy the argument "that a "leave" result was going to energise the far-right and isolationist/xenophobic/racist elements in the UK" - e.g. the evidence is that UK public concern over migration has actually declined since the 23rd of June 2016. (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/19/is-brexit-britain-turning-liberal-as-hostility-to-migration-beings-to-collapse)

    (It's also worth taking a look at the very excellent work done by British Future)

    It's not that I think we can do much to sway the actual fascists - rather that I think we can create environments which are more or less conducive to their political platforms gaining sufficiently widespread support for them to gain power

    2) I don't think Brexit was ever going to save the EU from the rising tide of extremist parties taking power. I'm afraid I'm rather pessimistic about that these days and think it's essentially inevitable. However I do think that splitting the UK off from the EU may serve to keep us somewhat safer.

    950:

    Good question. I suppose for me it's more that the push for an EU superstate makes it much easier for the far-right / neo-Nazis to gain significant electoral support. At the risk of Godwining myself the difference between A) a bunch of fascists trying to launch a coup in a Munich beer hall and B) some of the same fascists winning >40% in a federal election really matters and ensuring that we sustain a sociopolitical environment that doesn't enable the easy shift from A) to B) is hence very important.

    951:

    That's really helpful / interesting - thank you

    952:

    Re: '... for me it's more that the push for an EU superstate makes it much easier for the far-right / neo-Nazis to gain significant electoral support.'

    Again: Please explain how, why you've reached this conclusion.

    953:

    Could you detail, or point me to some links that detail, how "the EU's by-design limitations on democracy" directly influence sovereign parliaments to elect extremists, specifically the UK? From my (admittedly limited) understanding, this doesn't make much sense.

    Your "greater local / regional / national democracy" point just seems another rewrite of the "unelected EU bureaucrats" fallacy, as well as isolationism/toxic nationalism, and I fail to see how this is not pandering to (even if unintentionally) the wishes of hard right xenophobes. There is also the subtle implication that the jolly old UK is more able to withstand the tides of fascism than those weak-willed Europeans (again, this is almost certainly an unconscious bias, rather then deliberate xenophobia).

    These arguments still do seem to boil down to the "sovereignty" and "take back control" slogans, when there was little to no evidence that we ever lost either (beyond the free trade and free movement polciies, that you've already said you are in favour of).

    (PS: I never said "more popular", only "emboldened". Trust me, I am very aware of how a tiny emboldened minority of single-issue extremists can wag-the-dog of the body-politic and set policy that most disagree with.)

    954:

    Nojay @ 943 not from the socialists and even the hard left Err ... no. Expolain fuckwit Corbyn's constant anti-EU stance then? And that of marxistsMomentum who go along with him?

    955:

    (also for @953, but I'll write you a specific response as well)

    The short version:

    1) The EU by design provides a constrained / limited form of democracy & of accountability of lawmakers (can provide lots of detail around this if you're interested but in short the process of law-making / approving is opaque even to the legislators, let alone the electorate). "Unelected EU bureaucrats" is a fallacy but there are also very real limitations to the EU model of democracy.

    2) This isn't in and of itself a problem - the structure has been built this way for very good reasons (mostly the shallow roots of democracy in many EU member states, the history of electing extremists etc)

    However,

    3) Roughly since Maastricht (although clearly not caused by it! a great wave of globalisation has been occurring whose benefits have not been evenly distributed in the developed world (broadly speaking it's been good for the middle / upper classes while the working classes now face lower job security, flat real earnings / living standards etc)

    4) Then we have the GFC / the decade afterwards - and if you think that's been bad in the UK then go and take a look at the youth unemployment rates in Southern Europe.

    3 and 4 create some of the conditions for the rise of extremism - I suspect you'll agree.

    Now how do I think the EU exacerbates this? The problem is that we have:

    i) by-design limited democracy ii) a political 'project' which is pursued without the regular seeking of popular consent iii) an EU administrative class that have a tendency to ignore / re-run votes until they get the preferred result (c.f. the EU Constitution / Lisbon Treaty)

    All of these create an environment where people are more likely to feel powerless and that they are frustrated with the mainstream parties which are seen as being unable to deliver real change.

    I think there are ways of building a country called Europe but that it required / requires a lot more explicit consent-seeking than the organisation has ever really felt comfortable with.

    956:

    Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is well aware that 20% or more of his party's reliable voters are UKIP-curious, xenophobic and in some cases out-and-out racists. He's not particularly anti-EU the way that many more Tory voters and Party members are but he's the leader of the Labour Party and needs to hold on to those voters, millions of whom abandoned the party in 2015 to vote UKIP. However he's easy to demonise for Daily Mail readers and those who internalise the press headlines (see also the similar demonisation of EU figures like Juncker etc. in the past).

    957:

    I suspect that a number of Corbyn's inner circle including him aren't very keen on the EU - SM membership presents a clear barrier to the kind of nationalisation-heavy policies they'd like to pursue.

    958:

    (I am reconstructing this from my previous conversations with stubborn observers who have been parroting mainstream highlights of this story)

    I was tested in and out of season, and I have a very low tolerance for the cheats, thieves, and liars who attempt to use banned substances to enhance performance

    A weak argument, you should think in broader terms, really. First, one could hardly say that any highly-regarded competitor is very tolerant to his opponents, drug use notwithstanding. Second, the use of "doping" itself is probably the last thing person would consciously try after he tried out all other cheats, thieveries and lies that are provided by the rules set in place. Maybe should remind you that Anti-doping Agency is the one that unilaterally defines basic medical rules, changes them and sets the definition of cheating, not you or any other people around. An the third one, for the last - the anger and desperation of lost competition can only be surpassed by hatred and hysteria of those who still manage to lose despite using entire arsenal of options available of them ("fair" or not), since it defies their logic itself. http://theconversation.com/elite-sport-time-to-scrap-the-therapeutic-exemption-system-of-banned-medicines-89252

    Strangely, when UK athletes get caught, the UK government doesn't declare that it's all an anti-UK plot. When Canadian athletes get caught (Ben Johnson), the Canadian government doesn't claim it's a lie. When Lance Armstrong was caught, a spokesman for the US President didn't declare that David Walsh was "a Judas".

    Strangely enough, none of these countries were accused of "state sponsored program" on basis of sweeping and indiscriminating report by a third party out of the blue. None of their members was accused of cheating by virtue of being a person from certain nation. None of them was bombarded month after month with media campaign, accusations, sanctions and demands. Somebody had to invent the stories about secret undercover agents secretly acting in secret laboratories to save the secrets of the secret program of a secret order. In reality, however, it all started with completely unregulated move to expand lists of banned items without any proper investigation. And escalated ever since then. http://www.sportsintegrityinitiative.com/over-3600-athletes-test-positive-for-meldonium-in-year-before-ban/ http://www.sportsintegrityinitiative.com/opinion-failure-wada-communications-power-condemnation/

    What are you even thinking? World Doping Agency is not a government organization, not even international ruling body, it is a private company, a subsidiary to IOC. It was never elected by any significant amount of people, a pure bureaucracy that responds only to their board or directors, which, in turn, to their sponsors elsewhere. Isn't it very familiar? It doesn't need any fair competition, it does not want any specific money or business to do, it wants everything. It wants IOC (it's parent organization, no less) and FIFA to be served on a silver plate. It wants to stuck its hand down into every country's power structures, to manipulate them and turn into whatever profit they see fit. It probably wants to shake the entire 100 billion sports world for the protection racket, as well. And if you dare to resist or voice complaints, you will be accused, indicted, blamed, shamed, extradited, convicted, thrown into prison and tortured by powers you never subscribed to respond to. Ex post facto, if necessary. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/12/sports/american-doping-criminal-law.html

    Oh wait, this is not all. You might be thinking that I'm describing a low point Olympic movement may or may not finally reached, corrupted to the core by greed and hatred. That it is impossible to go any lower than the single order dictating the whole world how to regulate and shape their international sport programs - under the treat of force. How little do you know, it is only the beginning. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2149768-anti-doping-agency-to-ban-all-gene-editing-in-sport-from-2018/

    Soon enough, you could be banned from the sports for having wrong genes. Yes, this includes those other differences as well. Or not banned - you should also know that all those rules have those useful exceptions, and if you pay a good amount of money and faith for your progress, your advantages might as well be recognized as tolerable. Because the competition needs to be fair.

    959:

    There's nothing stopping any EU nation from nationalising or denationalising any part of its industrial base. There are rules about open markets across the EU for services and goods but that's it. There's a right-wing fantasy of the EU being an all-powerful octopus that dictates what can and can't be done from a Skull Island movie set somewhere near Brussels city centre but it doesn't actually exist. The EU is actually 28 sovereign democracies flying in close formation -- to really strain the analogy Britain has peeled off and is in a power dive into the ground below while the pilots in the cockpit wrestle for the controls and scream imprecations over the radio to the other governments flying serenely along. Many of the passengers in British Air Flight 666 think this is a good thing.

    I doubt very much that Labour leader Corbyn is actually interested in trying to win a general election by offering a manifesto pledge to re-nationalise, for example, the coal mines and the steel industry or even the railways (shut up, Greg) since he knows it would be a certain losing gambit. No-one wants the government to run anything it doesn't have to, especially if they have to pay for it.

    960:

    It seems to me that to support David's arguments we must buy into some key premises:

    1) The "EU superstate", replacing or superceding all national governments, is an unavoidable end point of the EU (and over which the UK has no control whatsoever).

    2) This entity will, almost certainly, end up being dictatorial and probably fascistic in nature.

    3) Only the UK can stand up to hard right fascism; the majority of everyone else in Europe is just biding their time for the opportunity to goose step across the English Channel.

    OR

    Alt-3) Economic hardship in the UK will create a resurgence of the Dunkirk-spirit and harden our core democratic values; unlike the rest of Europe where economic hardship will presage a slide into fascism.

    [We could possibly add the following: 4) Great new trade deals! / Commonwealth will save us! / CHINA IS AWESOME!; 5) It would all have worked out if we had just had better negotiators.]

    961:

    1) The Fourth Railway Package opened up rail networks to competitive tendering - essentially locking nations in to a system similar to the current UK one. This isn't really compatible with having the state run and own the railways.

    https://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/rail/packages/2013_en

    2) The Labour Party's 2017 General Election manifesto specifically promised a number of nationalisations including railways, Royal Mail, the energy companies and the water industry.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/16/labour-manifesto-analysis-key-points-pledges

    962:

    Thanks! Usually I have a couple of pigeons/mourning doves cooing very loudly on the eave just above my bedroom window starting around 4:30 a.m. (Have felt like tossing slippers at them a few mornings.) Today, nothing.

    963:

    I think you've misunderstood my position. To respond to your points in turn.

    1) Replacing? No. Ultimately superseding? Sure. It's not unavoidable - there are definitely a load of failure modes along the way. The thing is that an ultimately unified EU superstate isn't a bad outcome at all. The problem is trying to achieve it without a real European demos, or their explicit consent. And of course the UK had (pre 23/6/16) influence and control over this process. However that control was in relative decline with the EZ countries increasingly taking decisions as a "EU-Core" since the GFC.

    2) Not at all. I think it'd probably be fine. My concern is with the cack-handed way it's being run and the likelihood that the outcome will be fascism at a national level which tears the EU apart.

    3) Again, not at all. I mostly just think at this point it's better out than in for a number of countries including the UK.

    I'm going to assume that A-3, 4 and 5 are jokes.

    I appreciate that it's easy (and fun, and often tempting) to resort to lazy stereotyping of people we have political disagreements with (and God knows I've been prone to it over the years) but I think we'll have a more productive discussion if we respond to the actual points one another are making rather than those we expect them to make.

    964:

    Re: EU

    This BBC 'Reality Check' article says you're wrong re: how EU officials are placed into office and how EU policies are developed. In fact, seems there's more to-and-fro between member states and the central EU body than (say) (US) Federal and State legislation.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36429482

    965:

    I don't think this is incompatible with what I said - my issue is with the distancing and layering between the electorate (and the elected MEPs) and the law-making process.

    For clarity I'm not raving about "unelected bureaucrats".

    966:

    My apologies to everyone in the southern hemisphere. Considering the eastern US heatwave, your winter may be more enjoyable than some peoples' summers.

    967:

    Well, I have a wood pigeon who regards human eyes as a kind of snack dispenser, in that they accumulate bits of dried mucus in the corners while the human is asleep which can then be removed by an extremely delicate, but also extremely tickly, peck. And who also regards the expanse of bare skin revealed by a hot human who has thrown the bedclothes off as another potential source of snacks in the form of any minute spots, moles, scabs or other blemishes which look as if they might come off.

    968:

    Well, the birds aren't stupid, so they're getting out at dawn and dusk.

    As for what to do about water, general ideas include: 1. Put it in the shade. Hot water doesn't cool anything down. 2. Change the water daily, so you don't breed mosquitoes. 3. Putting it under the canopy of a bush, say a rose bush, can be useful. Water can be a predator magnet for things like Cooper's Hawks and other accipiters, which are quite nimble at flying through back yards. Nimble as they are, they don't like to fly through rose bushes, and that gives the animals getting a drink a bit of protection. 4. Clean the bowl regularly, to prevent algae, bird crap, etc. from building up. 5. You can get away with using a bigger, deeper water bowl if you put a big rock in it so that anything that falls in can climb back out. 6. If a crow or raven takes a bath in your water bowl, you will have to replace all the water, so check it occasionally to make sure there's still water in. 7. It can take awhile for animals to trust a new water bowl, especially if you're constantly checking it as if it were a trap.

    Hope this helps.

    969:

    What's the reason for 6?

    970:

    Where do I even start, other than wishing that the Aztecs and the Conquistadors had slaughtered each other, leaving the folks around to take over, to repel boarders from one of the nastiest countries in Europe (No one ever expects the Spanish Inquisition, anyone?)

    They didn't have iron, to the best of my knowledge. They did use copper, not a great weapon, although, according to a paper on anthrosource, there wasn't much copper near them, so we're back to late neolithic.

    And I adored the "non-lethal wooden swords". it might have been Musashi that I'm thinking of, in medieval Japan, who had 74 duels, and something like the last half of them using a bokken - a wooden katana - to kill his opponents, feeling that the fight should be more fair.

    You also seem ignorant of the obsidian-toothed sword/weapons they used.

    971:

    And if you do not smoke often, you get the results that the Native Americans did, who used it in rituals - it's a kind of high, though with stomach effects.

    Now you've woken my jones for my pipe. It's been, at least since, like, spring? New Year's, since I smoked....

    972:

    I think you're right. To my largely ignorant mind, the problem is piloting the drones. Just as the 1990s saying that you shouldn't put in email what you wouldn't want to see written on a bathroom wall, there was a military notion about a decade ago that one of the early signs of WWIII would be communications satellites being destroyed in large numbers and uncontrolled drones falling out of the sky.

    The obvious solution is to put the drone pilots on the aircraft carrier closer to the action, but there are still problems with over-the-horizon communications and latency, especially when, with CAS, you're trying not to hit your own soldiers.

    As for the solution, it depends on the war. That was my point with Erik Prince hiring the modern mercenaries to fly cropdusters turned into, well, flying technicals. This might make some sense in Afghanistan.

    The biggest underlying problem is that the USAF traditional cultural goal is that they must have the highest technology capable of flying, even if they don't have the most planes--and it shows (this from a little book called The Masks of War, which is a bit outdated but still worth hunting down). Flying a low tech plane down near the dirt where you get shot at a lot isn't appealing, but their culture tends to try to find a technical fix to the problem, rather than recruiting a lot of crazy pilots and building rugged, readily reparable planes.

    973:

    So you dislike the superstate of Europe: why? Are you one who longs to go back to the days when Men were Men, and needed a good European war to prove themselves?

    I find it interesting that you can completely and utterly ignore the foundations of the EU, to have NO MORE FUCKING WORLD WARS.

    974:

    No, as I've said repeatedly in this thread I actually think it's a good idea. The problem is that the implementation is being handled in a way which makes it doomed to destructive failure. Hubris / nemesis.

    In fact I think a European war in the mid-term is looking more likely in part because of the way the EU has sought to further integration.

    975:

    Then you are in your own reality. At least from this side of the Pond, it was the hard right and neofascists who were the brownshirts of the Leave movement. Just as in threats to the solidarity of the EU have emboldened the neofascists in Poland, and Italy.

    The whole basis of Leave was racism and xenophobia, just like Trumpolini, here, rants against rapist Mexicans (who actually are neither rapists, nor mostly from Mexico).

    Clear evidence: the famous poster/billboard of All Them Furriners Lining Up To Get Into The UK... which was, other than not being black and white, a LITERAL recreation of Nazi propaganda from the thirties.

    Your attempts to justify your positions... actually, given that you say you have trouble reconciling your younger "selves" with yourself now, suggests that you have issues that lead to this lack of ability to look reality in the face.

    Unlike She of Many Names, I don't use a lot of metaphor and allegory, on the other hand, I agree with her: you're just trying to justify your unjustifiable actions and positions to shore up your self image.

    976:

    "...essentially locking nations in to a system similar to the current UK one..."

    No, it doesn't. It certainly gives every appearance of being written by someone who has been under a rock for the last 20 years, with all that idiotic blathering about "allowing competition" being some kind of magical spell to cure all ills, regardless of the British demonstration that it just introduces new ills that weren't there before and can't physically work anyway (the latter applying even more strongly in the case of Continental nations whose railway systems were laid out under government control so as to avoid the Victorian version of it after seeing that century's British demonstration).

    But while it does wank itself sore about how you now can be as daft as Britain, it does not say that you now have to be as daft as Britain. It is just defining the particular flavours of daftness that are and aren't permitted. It adds a bunch of stuff about how you "may" do this, but it doesn't add anything about how you now "may not" do that; it adds new possibilities, but it doesn't remove any existing ones.

    In particular, it's got this:

    "Unless prohibited by national law, any competent local authority, whether or not it is an individual authority or a group of authorities providing integrated public passenger transport services may decide to provide public passenger transport services itself or to award public service contracts directly to a legally distinct entity over which the competent local authority, or, in the case of a group of authorities at least one competent local authority, exercises control similar to that exercised over its own departments."

    977:

    I think you'll find that "at least from this side of the Pond" is the most important line in your response.

    You're clearly coming at this from a position of limited information. You (correctly) identify the disgustingly racist "Breaking Point" poster as a recreation of Nazi propaganda.

    What you seem unaware of (and frankly there's little reason you would have this knowledge) is who actually produced that poster, what their role was in the campaign and what the response of the official campaign to it was.

    So, slightly dull history lesson ahead:

    What you need to understand up top is that there were basically two broad camps of people who voted to leave the EU - in simpler terms Little Englanders motivated by anti-migrant sentiment and globalists motivated by concern about sovereignty.

    (Piles of detailed polling on this from before and after the vote - happy to share links if you're interested)

    The EU Referendum Act made provision for two "official campaign groups" - one for Leave and one for Remain. There would be a tendering / application process and then the Electoral Commission (EC) would make a selection. There was only really one serious Remain application so we can ignore that for the purposes of this discussion.

    On the Leave side there were two groups who could plausibly be "designated" by the EC - one called Vote Leave, and one called Leave.EU.

    These two groups were profoundly different in terms of their approaches, strategies and the personalities involved.

    The short version is that Leave.EU was funded by Arron Banks, had Nigel Farage as its figurehead and was essentially UKIP's campaign group. Their key emphasis was on migration and they hammered this message day and night.

    Crucially LEAVE.EU produced the racist "Breaking Point" poster

    Vote Leave on the other hand were headed up by a mostly Tory group of Libertarians (The "Tufton St Wankers" as Pete North is known to call them) - Matthew Elliot, Dom Cummings etc etc. They are a group who are generally pro-migration / business and took the view that hammering migration as an issue was undesirable in moral and tactical terms.

    After various shenanigans VL got the official campaign designation and spent the rest of the campaign refusing to work with / touch anything to do with L.EU or Nigel Farage.

    Indeed many VL figures instantly condemned that poster. Rightly so. It was disgusting.

    As to my campaigning efforts we refused to put any anti-migration messages in Brexit: The Movie (indeed Arron Banks rants about our refusal to do so in his memoirs of the campaign - 'The Bad Boys of Brexit'). I remain in favour of free movement and the single market - hence my preference for an EEA / EFTA outcome for the UK.

    Finally, rhetoric aside the reality is that UK public concern about migration HAS DECLINED PRECIPITOUSLY SINCE THE VOTE.

    So I hope that helps clarify matters a bit.

    As some guidance I'd suggest that assuming that "over there" is just like "over here" isn't a brilliant approach to understanding other countries. In fact it's really a deeply parochial one.

    It's also clearly grossly simplistic to imagine that Poland, Italy (and Hungary) have suddenly swung to the right as a result of the Brexit vote.

    978:

    I find it interesting that you can completely and utterly ignore the foundations of the EU, to have NO MORE FUCKING WORLD WARS. Well, the UK and France at least don't have to worry much, because they are nuclear powers. (Joke)

    @davidcshipley re #6, that's just because large birds eject a lot of water from the bowl/bath. (Which I just filled, thanks for the reminder Frank.)

    Some light (American) snark about Alex Jones: The Elders Have Authorized a Public Service Announcement for Alex Jones: There is No Civil War Planned for Independence Day 2018, Just the Global Conspiracy Round Robin Softball Tournament and Picnic!.

    979:

    Re: ‘I would also ask the questions:’

    ‘shouldn't we perhaps ask why this is the case, and be wary of actions that seek to appease these elements and perhaps think about what benefits might accrue from such a project?’

    Yes - and although mechanisms exist for doing this (e.g., surveys, segmentation, etc.), I can’t find anything online that shows any such data. And this data must exist because how else are you going to (a) determine which buttons to push to get that target audience moving in the desired direction and (b) if this data exists then data that shows how to push/prod the other population segments (non-neo-Nazis) also exists.

    ‘If we rail against closer integration, and take action to isolate ourselves and reinforce toxic nationalism, are we not just allowing the neo-Nazis to win by default?’ – Agree – basically feel that would be just caving in to the bullies. In a stalemate, a small group with a loud voice/muscle could lever themselves into power, e.g., bible-thumpers and GOP.

    My approach to many socio-economic-political questions is to first assume that all human populations fall along a similar bell-shaped curve. Any between- and within-group differences are then likely due to/associated with attributes/customs specific to that type of environment, i.e., start with the demographics, then compare each demo group with its neighbors across various factors, i.e., (economic development, access to post-secondary education, access to medical care, etc. Tedious, but seems to work. One reason I mentioned anocracy in an earlier post is that if you want to freeze or confuse someone into inaction, you would present them with only two extreme and opposite options as happened with BrExit and esp. in the US election where DT and HC were the most odious (unacceptably extreme) candidates to the other party. My perception is that historically most democratic elections rely on the existence of swing voters (folks who vote based on new info/conditions rather than always toeing a party line). How do you get rid of or minimize ‘swings’? – by exaggerating the most fundamental difference between the parties/options.

    980:

    Just that they chuck it all out.

    A pigeon, on the other hand, is quite likely to sit in it for ages and have a go at other birds who want some too.

    981:

    Firstly I'm glad we agree that the UK rail franchising model is daft (I'd probably have chosen a stronger word)!

    Secondly my understanding is that while a decision can be taken to allocate rail contracts / franchises to public entities the requirement to run a competitive tender process means that private businesses will have the ability to issue legal challenges if their (no doubt entirely unfeasible but cheaper) bid isn't chosen.

    (Not a lawyer, certainly not an EU lawyer, relying on explanations from people I know who understand this better than I do)

    Certainly from the perspective of someone who wants to simply have the rail network owned and run by the state this requirement would be an impediment.

    982:

    "I think you'll find that "at least from this side of the Pond" is the most important line in your response."

    Well, I'm British, and I thought whitroth's response was bang on, stands up perfectly well without that disclaimer, and coincides with my own view of the matter pretty well exactly. There seem to be very few exceptions to the observation that the "Leave" side is made up of people somewhere on the spectrum between moronic jingoism (screaming "FREEDOM!!!!11!" like Mel Gibson and with about as much accuracy) and outright Nazism; and the Nazis are by far the most vocal, and have got unpleasantly more conspicuous since the referendum result "legitimised" the xenophobic viewpoint.

    983:

    If you actually think macuahuitl are non lethal you should try getting hit with one

    They are actually one of the best sidearm style weapons available given the metallurgy available

    The method of warfare was non lethal mostly because the triple alliance wanted it that way because we they were farming the local “enemies” for sacrifices but it wasn’t a factor of the weaponry as much as incentives and tactics

    Were the Aztecs evil? Comparing them to other Bronze or Iron Age civilizations they were about average. I’ll see your human sacrifices and raise you 6000 crucified slaves along the Appian Way. Pretty much everyone was varyIng degrees of evil throughout all of history, it’s only recently that we’ve figured out members of other tribes are actually people and it’s morally wrong to kill them

    The 1491/1493 series are pretty good/ accessible over views of the whole social, economic and cultural period. There is also a pretty fun and well researched fantasy police procedural series called “obsidian and blood” that deep doves into the Aztecs

    984:

    My limited understanding is that the Aztecs were experimenting with bronze, but in general they were hated by the surrounding polities (kingdoms?). The conquistadors played on the divisions to take down the Aztec. Actually, Pizarro did the same thing with the Inca. Weird how that works. There's something odd here that I'll get back to at the end.

    As for iron use, the only documented Precolumbian use of iron was the Greenland eskimos, who hammered off bits of the Old Woman meteorite and cold forged (e.g. hammered them with rocks) into working blades. IIRC you can see the meteorite, with the evidence of native work, at the New York Natural History Museum. It's pretty cool.

    The weird thing about New World bronze work is where it didn't happen: California. I used to think there were no tin mines in the Southwest, and even though there's a lot of copper ore (e.g. turquoise, but not limited to that), that's why no one got beyond working copper (as in the old copper culture in the upper Midwest).

    Turns out there was a decent tin mine in Corona, California (it's been since played out), and there was Precolumbian trade between the coast out into the copper-bearing parts of the desert, which could have mixed tin and copper. It's a road not taken, but there's at least the potential for a weird alt-history story there, with bronze technology taking off in the area around California, the Colorado River Delta, and into Arizona and Nevada.

    985:

    I don't think this is incompatible with what I said - my issue is with the distancing and layering between the electorate (and the elected MEPs) and the law-making process.

    The real problem as I see it is that direct democracy breaks down once you exceed Dunbar's Number of people (100-200 — think primate troupe/human tribe), and representative democracy breaks down once you pass roughly 2-10 million people, depending on ratio of constituents to legislators and how the system works.

    The US colonies in 1776 had only about 3 million people, IIRC. These days, with 330 million USAnians, their republic is careening between failure modes, ranging from congressional gridlock/dragooning to grassroots polarization and demagoguery.

    The EU, with 500 million people, got the benefit of learning from the USA's mistakes ... but tried to fix the US system's problems by adding extra machinery, which look opaque from the outside.

    We also have a persistent problem in the UK of our press being owned, lock, stock, and barrel, by hyper-rich oligarchs with their own political agendas (and a very nasty strain of racism). Let's be honest and admit that in the UK, "immigration" is a proxy for race, "asylum seeker" has been turned into a smear (it's been weaponized as a proxy for race), and the flames of old-school English xenophobia are easily fanned into a raging brush-fire that can be directed for profitable/nefarious purposes.

    I live in Scotland. I want to see Scotland loosened from the claustrophobic embrace of Westminster, but better integrated with the EU. (While I will vote for independence in the next indyref, I'd settle for a federal solution to the British problem — if it also split up England into a group of smaller semi-independent states with only defense and foreign policy in common. Alas, I don't think that's a practical objective, so full independence for Scotland is the only reasonable way forward.)

    NB: it's ironic that the arguments over the UK leaving the EU all apply, in miniature, to Scotland leaving the UK.

    986:

    A casual American view of the whole Brexit thing is that in general the European people seem to want the economic integration but not the full political one. And that they are figuring out you can’t really have one without the other, hence, hijinks

    It seems reasonable that continuing down the middle path is going to activate the nationalists, they don’t like it when all the funny colored people move in next door and they also don’t like they economies being ass

    Also whether countries like Greece are really “sovereign” anymore seems pretty debatable, and the whole EU seems to be paying off a lot more for the rich northern countries then the poor southern ones

    Seems to me like a “shit or get off the pot” moment for European unification

    987:

    Yes, but similar objections have been made under the existing setup, and AFAIK been found to carry only ideological, not legal, weight. I can't see anything that actually does alter that situation (though I freely admit that I'm not a lawyer either and it gives me a headache trying to read that stuff...)

    988:

    Caution — Facetious sarcasm incoming (with an underlying serious point or two):

    Also important to remember that the well informed UK public were very aware of the difference between Leave.EU and Vote Leave, and therefore knew to ignore the unsanctioned propaganda of the former and listen only to the fact-based arguments of the latter.

    So you see: Leave.EU can safely be ignored and we don’t have to discuss their influence in the referendum because it was negligible.

    989:

    If you actually think macuahuitl are non lethal you should try getting hit with one

    To clarify, a macuahuitl was a wood club edged with obsidian. The bitey bits on Aztec weapons tended to be things like obsidian edges and stingray spines, probably with things like sling stones that didn't need to be sharp. As for Aztec bronze, I'm pretty sure they made it, but it's hard to find out what they used it for.

    In the Andes, people started making bronze and various similar things around the 10th century CE, and they unambiguously used it for weapons--most frequently cast mace heads (check your local tier 1 museum--there's usually one in a display somewhere). They used rocks for a lot of their weapons, and since their slings reportedly outranged Conquistador firearms (which shot iron bullets), this isn't as stupid as it sounds.

    990:

    Serious points taken and agreed with - of course they had a big influence, and of course the distinction wasn't clear to most people.

    However I wasn't trying to claim that L.EU had no influence - I was responding to an attack on me essentially saying "the entire Brexit campaign (and you, by extension) is racist because of this racist poster".

    991:

    Re: '.... the distancing and layering between the electorate (and the elected MEPs) and the law-making process.'

    Not aware of the general electorate being asked to vote on every bill that gets tabled in, say, the US, UK, Australia or Canada. Your comments suggest that for the EU this should be the case.

    My reading of the BBC piece doesn't suggest distancing at all, in fact, the opposite: a bunch of folk are tasked with working out a strategy and by regularly getting feedback from their respective gov'ts come to some form of agreement that benefits the majority (if not all) the members.

    That said, having just read the Wikipedia entry on the Treaty of Lisbon, I appreciate that governing the EU is pretty complicated and many-layered. No idea whether a simpler approach would work though.

    992:

    Re:' ... the birds aren't stupid,'

    Agree. :)

    Have already done most of what you suggested plus will be giving the backyard a thorough soaking this evening to lure some of the worms up into the lawn - the odor of freshly turned muddy soil wafting through the night air. (Plus protein and water in each mouthful for nestlings.)

    About the large pans of water overnight: by the morning they're empty and upside down and my deck has dried muddy raccoon paw prints all over it. (Oh well ... personally, I find this very entertaining.)

    993:

    Bronze has always been rare and in high demand, the eastern land masses just made it work marginally better because they had far more advanced trade routes (mostly do to geography). Even in the old world it was always scarce and expensive

    The move to iron was actually driven far more by availabity then quality, early iron was actually shit compared to bronze

    The Aztecs has not much tin but very common obsidian so they quite reasobaly used obsidians for arrow and spear tips. Wars are won or lost by mass producing arrows and spears and obsidian works fine there

    The flower war thing was not actual warfare more like ritualized religious combat

    With regard to the spainsih conquest, a very important thing that often gets overlooked is 90% of the native population was busy dying from various plagues while all this was going on. While the spainish did play things extremely well, that certainly was the key thing that made victory for them possible

    Also Frank you should really read 1491/1493 right up your alley

    994:

    My intention has certainly not been to imply racism on your part, nor to “lazily stereotype” you, but rather to try to restate your arguments in such a way as to reach a better understanding of what you believe (particularly as some of it seems contradictory, at least at first blush).

    I’ve also been trying to highlight that much of what you say contains either unexamined bias or unconscious dog-whistling about the British as a people apart, special, and in some undefinable way better than “Europeans”. (Note: You haven’t said this, but the implication is there if you look for it.)

    I do appreciate a different voice on the forum, even if I disagree with what is being said.

    995:

    Just to be clear: I hate Brexit with a passion. I want it to die in a fire. It is going to totally fuck up the place I call home, and possibly get innocent people killed. It is a stupid dangerous ignorant idea, with little if any purpose beyond stoking isolationist dreams and fuelling toxic nationality, and enriching further some already ridiculously rich people.

    I loathe any form of argument that tries to make a case that the UK lacks real influence in Brussels, that ordinary people are too removed from the decision making process, that it is somehow undemocratic. I live in a part of the UK where I have no voice in policy AT ALL, and neither do many of my friends, family, neighbours, and fellow countrymen; and this situation has been exacerbated and increased immeasurably by Brexit. When I hear someone whine about Brussels being unaccountable, I think: You have no fucking idea. Mate.

    996:

    Nojay @ 956 Bollocks – Corby has been anti-EU since forever – he believes it’s a corrupt corporate big bosses employers ramp – he’s even said so, several times.

    & 959/60 Actually the railways are too all intents & purposes already nationalised – the TOC-contracts are at the whim of the DfT, Network Rail is guvmint controlled & Grayling is in charge. ( Which is why he is blaming everyone else over the Thameslink fiasco, because it’s his fault. ) For a very highly amusing take on this, TRY HERE & don’t rupture yourself laughing …

    davidshipley @ 962 1: This is the same lying bollocks that Railtrack (remember them & shudder ? ) put about. You merely have to SEPARATELY ACCOUNT FOR the the “Mech Eng” & the “Civ Eng” sections of your railway – akin to the separate accounts for those departments in a pre-1948 railway.

    Bill Arnold @ 979 I don’t understand a word of that.

    Charlie @ 986 I hate to agree on that one, but, correct. Which is why even at this late date, it should be possible to stop Brexit & cancel At50. Let’s face it, the most rabid brexiteers are only getting away with it, because no-one has told them to go & dork themselves.

    [[ html fix - mod ]]

    997:

    Again, you're bullshitting. You completely ignore the large percentage who voted leave who a) really did NOT expect it to win, and b) only did so, because they wanted to send a message to the government that they were tired of being screwed over (note that neoliberals are politically where the conservatives used to be, a few decades ago).

    You also ignore that I said that they were the brownshirts. Who you were working for were the ultrarich, who want to loot the UK the way the ultrarich in the US are using the GOP to arrange for them to do.

    You chose the Dark Side, buddy. Stop claiming you didn't.

    998:

    Anent which point, I will note that Hitler's rise to power in 1933 was facilitated by the non-Nazi right wing/capitalist industrialist factions in the Reichstag, who didn't exactly agree with him on all policy points but who thought he'd be a lot better for business than the Other Lot (i.e. anyone from the Social Democrats leftwards, all the way to the Communists).

    Not a nazi? Don't get into bed with nazis, then. Otherwise those of us who are opposed to nazism may find it hard to tell you apart.

    999:

    If you mean a much-too-kind treatment of this wacko conspiracy-theorist, agreed. As per below story, he's got a bunch of neo-Nazi lawyers working for him in one of the suits filed against him by parents of kids killed in the Sandy Hook shooting.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/02/us/politics/sandy-hook-alex-jones-lawyers.html

    1000:

    Oh, yes, for the folk(s) who claimed there was no evidence of Russian collusion with Trump... the Senate Intel Committee just released its report... and guess what? THERE WAS. (Note that The Hill tends to lean conservative.)

    http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/395408-senate-intel-committee-no-reason-to-dispute-ic-assessment-of-russian-election

    1001:

    Though it would be nice for the thread to break 1000.

    You got your wish. And ISTR you enjoy the Seagull, so the nearly 20% of comments by/replies to him/her/it/them should be up your alley. (I hope, for the sake of his blood pressure, that Greg's either filtering or at least ignoring them.)

    Personally I'd like to hear more from David Shipley, despite disagreeing with him. (I'd have voted against Brexit, if the rules of the poll had allowed ex-pats to vote.)

    David — I know I'm not the only reader who uses a filter so I don't have to scroll past lots of ranting and insults. So if you have some interesting points, please put them in a post that's not a direct reply to the Seagull (because otherwise I'll never see them).

    1002:

    From @948:

    I also don't see a vote / campaigning for Brexit as "supporting" a Neo-Nazi / hard-right cause (although I would agree that those groups were likely all in favour of Leave I think the evidence is that they were / are a very tiny proportion of the Leave constituency).

    Just wanted to jump back to this (apologies for the quasi-sealioning).

    The parenthesis here seems ridiculously disengenuous; expecting anyone to believe that someone intimately involved with Brexit, or even just someone who has taken a significant interest, missed the obvious and very public support for Brexit by hard right and neo-Nazi type groups is frankly insulting.

    To then claim that you don’t see a vote for Brexit as supporting a neo-Nazi cause is incredible naïveté at best, but seems much more in the vein of wilful obfuscation.

    (PS: I see lots of people now talking about “the right sort of migrants”, which perhaps plays into the reduction of anti-migrant sentiment that David keeps mentioning; but it certainly is no indicator of a reduction in support for the hard right.)

    1003:

    Um, who do you think I quoted on the range of Incan slings? (1491).

    The history of iron metallurgy is weird. Iron objects were being made for centuries prior to the Iron Age, and because iron oxide was used as a flux in smelting bronze in a way that reduced the iron, they actually had globs of it lying around. During the bronze age, iron metal occupied a cultural space analogous to what titanium and similar metals do today.

    The problem is, iron doesn't work the way bronze does. Cast iron is tricky to turn into weapons. Adding carbon (e.g. from charcoal) does nothing to bronzes but everything to iron, and pounding on iron has opposite effects from pounding on brass or bronze. Oh, and you need a much hotter fire to work iron, so until they were creating high fire ceramics, no one could make a hot enough fire to make large amounts of iron.

    What this seems to have meant in practice was that the technologies developed to work on gold, silver, copper, brass, bronze, etc. didn't work on iron, any more than ironsmithing works on titanium. People fiddled with iron for centuries, until they acquired the knowledge to figure out how to work it straight. We'll probably never know the story in much detail, because iron rusts rapidly, while bronze lasts a very long time, so the archaeological record biases us to think more in terms of bronze than of iron.

    Another interesting thing about the "iron age" is that the West and China apparently got to tool iron and steel in different ways (the Chinese figured out how to get there from casting iron, the Assyrians figured out how to blacksmith). Also, Africa skipped the bronze age entirely and went straight from stone to iron (and there are some very early iron forges in Africa).

    As to why the New World didn't develop the same technology, it's hard to say. In China and Turkey, there were tin and copper deposits within a few hundred miles of each other, so that when people started cooking with rocks (e.g. melting ore to see what happened and combining different crushed rocks like a cook an alchemist), they figured out copper and copper alloys pretty quickly (around 3000-2700 BCE, IIRC). That, possibly combined with really early use of kiln technology to make ceramics (e.g. a culture than knew how to make really hot fires), may be why Eurasia got into the habit of melting rocks three millennia before the Andean smiths figured it out.

    1004:

    Her posts have been unusually information dense in this thread (yes, plenty of the usual “noise” too, but less than average).

    1005:

    We'll have more content coming soon, I think...

    Including a guest post from Greg on railways? :-)

    (As I said before, likely a minority wish but I can always hope…)

    1006:

    Charlie @ 999 The "old" right in Germany thought that Adolf would be a useful tool, whom they could use for a couple of years & then dump. Which "plan" went ever so slightly worng .... [ Reichstag FIre & then 1934 - Night of Long Knives. After which it was too late. ]

    RP @ 1006 I have not been asked - but if I was, I would use the history of both railways & steam locomotives to show how NOT to do things & of golden opportunities missed.

    1007:

    More then two ways to work iron for sure the India had its own methods like wootz

    It’s not entirely true to say cast iron is useless for weapons though it works ok for arrow heads and spear points, though not great

    1491 was also dead wrong about slingers he generally screws up everything military in that book. Slingers have been know and employeed in the east since the Assyrians, and Rhodes was especially famous for them, but it’s actually just not a great weapon compared to even a bow which meant it tended to be regulated to specific use cases

    Africa didn’t skip the Bronze Age, at least that would be news to The Egyptians and Numidians. Maybe sub saharaian Africa did, not much of an expert on that

    I don’t think there is anything surprising about the mesoamerican nations not discovering iron, they seem to have been pretty slow getting started with metal working at all, they hit copper pretty early but then took a long time to move beyond it, especially smelting which is needed for bronze. My suspicion of the cause would be lack of extensive trade routes linking the different centers of civilization and just a generally lower civilization density, but that’s just a guess

    1008:

    I think “plausible deniability” would be a reasonable description for the relationship between the “official” and “provisional” wings of the leave campaign...

    1009:

    In his defense (and why he was engaged), @792 he did post the twitter handle:

    https://twitter.com/Hayleeee1848

    This is a medium tier account (low was a bit unfair: they do do their research / blood hound work) that does do a good job of tracking the visible bits of the Machine[tm] such as 'who is funding the IEA' (Templeton / US / UK Religious Right Wing / NeoCons). Since the BBC seems determined to give the IEA airtime (another attack on the NHS this week via a very Trumped-Up young woman... very Trumped up and Ultra-Toried Up we might add) it's useful to know / have proof of.

    Thus he got a nice little runway to show which 'faction' he was from (albeitly he was very slow taking this opportunity) and just how silly / clueless a woman we are in the face of Big Boy Finance[tm] (this is essential for their side, at least the Boys-With-Toys brigades to save face).

    But, it's also due to moves like this going on behind the scenes:

    Guido Fawkes news editor Alex Wickham to join Buzzfeed UK politics team PressGazette, July 3rd 2018 - cheered on by various Fleet St. luminaries including from the FT of all places.

    Alex Wickham has major form in the art of the political smear & it shows someone is spending cash to keep the message alive - whether or not it's because Geido Faewks got burnt badly enough in the Judas / Tory Islamophobia to be uncitable (doubtful) or simply because Buzzfeed UK needs the talent and the pool is that shallow (Guardian poached their prior Journo) we can't be bothered to investigate.

    But, basically, it's all due to this:

    UK press revenues more than halve in a decade WARC, 28th June, 2018 - has links to the DMCS reports.

    Anyhow we'll return to #secondcivilwarletters (but also QANON prep-for-the-big-show).

    1010:

    Slings (not slingshot, but the older David's sling) is a worldwide weapon, and it's been around since forever. The current world record distance for a slung stone is 437.10 m (1,434 ft 1 in), set back in 1981. The current record for an arrow is 283.47 m (930.04 ft), set in 2015. Anyway, slings have a noticeably longer range than bows. The Conquistador arquebus has a "maximum effective range" (note that this isn't a distance record) of something like 100 meters, and that's certainly within the range of slings and arrows. So 1491 was correct on this, sorry.

    You're correct about African bronze age. I was thinking about sub-Saharan Africa, which jumped very early into iron manufacturing and never really got into bronze (the Benin bronzes are brass).

    As for New World, I think the trope of them being "slow" people (e.g. stupid, possibly even mentally retarded) is right up there with the "vanishing Indian" as a problematic trope, mostly because they're still here and they're not stupid at all. While it's true that that no one in the americas developed high temperature kiln technology for either high temperature ceramics or smelting iron, on the other hand these so-called slow people had cities at least as big as anything in Europe when the Europeans got here, which says that in the technology of supporting human lives, they were at least as good as Europe. Why argue that only military technology is a measure of intellectual prowess?

    1011:

    Not a problematic trope, a false one: Incan aqueducts - the tech to cut the stone, do the engineering at that scale etc requires some decent thinking. Oh, and their cities were rated A in canals, sanitation and general water management.

    It's not a coincidence that the Empire fell (into mass ritual slaughter) due to droughts. Very water based thinking they had (thus all the flowing blood down the tiered steps, see?).

    Deathly Waters and Hungry Mountains: Agrarian Ritual and Class Formation in an Andean Town.

    Power, Ideology and Ritual: The Practice of Agriculture in the Inca Empire Doutriaux, Berkley, PDF, Legal

    etc.etc.

    Note: it's incorrect to state that the Americas didn't have iron and/or mined. They did, but it wasn't the Incans and they just didn't smelt it:

    The Nasca civilization, which existed from about 1 to 750 AD, is well known for hundreds of drawings in the Nasca Desert known as the Nasca Lines — stylized hummingbirds, spiders, monkeys, lizards, sharks, llamas and other figures can only be seen from the air. It also built an aqueduct system that is still used today.

    The researchers estimate more than 3,700 metric tons of hematite were extracted from the ancient mine during more than 1,400 years of use. Vaughn conjectures the Nasca civilization used the red-pigmented mineral primarily for ceramic paints, but they also could have used it as body paint, to paint textiles and even to paint adobe walls.

    Mining Site Predates Incan Empire LiveScience, 2008

    1012:

    Hoo boy. First off, I was being polite, as you well know.

    As background, one of my favorite books for writing alien cultures is Michael Moseley's The Incans and Their Ancestors, which I got into after reading 1491. It's also one of my major sources for ideas about how one runs a civilization under severe climate change, because the Andes are about as extreme a place as anyone has built a hierarchical civilization (I like Papua New Guinea for places that are even more extreme and where cultures are non-hierarchical).

    I'll take your comments in reverse order: --hematite is known to have been mined for 42,000 years (Google Ngwenya mines) as a pigment or whatever. Note that this is only 1/7th as old as the oldest modern human skull, so my bet is that the technology is a lot older. Also note that hematite is one form of fully oxidized iron.

    AFAIK (and I'm doing this from memory, as I don't own the book), the oldest iron metal made (that's fully reduced metallic iron), was created, as noted above, as a side product of smelting copper to make bronze. This stuff got worked in Egypt and the Middle East during the height of the bronze age, but it was primarily decorative, cast into jewelry and such. I'm not clear why this form of iron didn't show up in the Andean Wari culture when they started making bronze around 800 CE, but I'm greatly ignorant, and our resident archaeologists aren't talking. Maybe they were making metallic iron as a byproduct of bronze manufacture and I don't know about it, or maybe they used a different setup.

    Going back to the Andes, remember that this was the place that El Nino was discovered, because it's a seriously bad thing there? (and note my comments about living in an alien world above). Every few hundred years, the Andes experienced a seriously bad mega-Nino, and this usually marked the end of an empire or at least all the big kingdoms (not counting the Nazca). The Incans were actually a Gen III kingdom, building on ideas pioneered by the Wari and Tiwanaku (Gen II).

    I totally agree that the Inca did some awe-inspiring things with keeping people fed and water moving in a truly hostile environment where crops routinely failed (and that's the kicker--crops routinely failed and they still ran an empire there). They also did some seriously head-slapping things that turned them into expansionistic assholes (actually not sure that, as an America, I should say that. Comments from Brits?).

    As for the Nazca, the current story is that made a serious mistake with deforestation and that cost them their water. We'll see if this story holds up. I'd note that it's fairly normal, worldwide, for civilizations to get into irrigation, screw up, and crash. Since I depend entirely on irrigation water, you have no idea how comforting I find this.

    1013:

    snort

    Real Leave and Continuity Leave waiting in the wings ...

    1014:

    Your TRY HERE link doesn't work...

    How not to build a steam locomotive: if you are not already familiar with http://www.douglas-self.com/MUSEUM/LOCOLOCO/locoloco.htm then you ought to be :)

    Very much the case that "how to build a steam locomotive" without the "not" is a FAR simpler thing to explain: See Stephenson's Rocket? Build that, in a size to fit your requirements, and perhaps add a superheater. Any other "improvement" you may think of you can be sure someone else has already tried it and found it not worth the candle.

    (I'll make a provisional exception for Stanier's Turbomotive, since it seems that did work pretty well, and it was the combination of WW2 and it being one of a kind that did for it rather than any deficiency in operation.)

    Anyway, you can save 10% on fuel with any steam engine by painting it blue and telling the driver it's a special :)

    1015:

    Your confusing two different numbers there Frank

    The sling number you quote is a “furthest distance traveled” while the arrow number is longest accurate shot (I.e. they hit the target)

    Furthest distance traveled for arrows is 500m

    http://m.worldrecordacademy.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.worldrecordacademy.com%2Fsports%2Flongest_bow_and_arrow_shot_world_record_set_by_Zak_Crawford_101831.htm&utm_referrer=#2679

    The reason why slings were generally not as effective as bows has little to do with maximum range though and a lot to do with many other factors most importantly armor penetration and stopping power at range. You also can’t mass the ranks of slingers as tightly which can be a disadvantage under some circumstances. Also the rate of fire of a skilled archer can be pretty phenomenal

    The general pattern I saw in 1491 seemed to indicate ignorance on the part of the author on old world technologies rather then the new world ones. There were many solid reasons why Europeans adopted the military technologies they did, and it was mostly because that technology helped them win battles. There was basically nothing the new worlders had in the way of military tech that hadn’t been used and then discarded for something better in the new world

    For instance a musket ball, while shorter range has incredibly more penetrating power which makes them quite effective in mass fire

    The 1491 guy also completely ignored cannon, which was actually the far more important development of the gunpowder age and was used with great effect against the triple alliance

    His ideas about armor (he goes on at great length about the wonders of tightly packed cotton armor) completely ignores the fact that old world did the exact same thing (with wool or linen) only they put that UNDER the chain mail or plate. He’s also dead wrong about the inability to use heavy armor in hot climates (as the crusaders proved)

    It’s a minor nit in an otherwise great book but it did make me snort in places

    1016:

    I'd also add that after 1491 came out, there was some good evidence that Pizarro won because he was able to assemble a coalition of other Andean groups against the Inca. He then screwed them over. Apparently, some of his former allies appealed to the Spanish crown and lost (this is where the records com from. The story of the Conquistador victory being due to he superiority of Spanish weapons was assembled after the fact (for example, by banning natives from owning steel weapons due to their "lethality") to provide an alternate story for Pizarro's win that justified his treatment of his allies.

    To put it bluntly, Spanish steel was not so good as to make them invulnerable against tens of thousands of Incans. If nothing else, the Spanish didn't have the ammunition or the arrows (or the swords, or the horses). What the Spanish did have were tens of thousands of native allies, and that made the biggest difference.

    1017:

    If you can get a copy, you might enjoy Codex Valtierra.

    https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/521277495/codex-valtierra-relaunch

    I backed it on Kickstarter, and it's been an interesting read. Trying to figure out the story from just the illustrations is a challenge, but a fun one (and there's a text version on the reverse if you get stumped).

    1018:

    So a Roads Not Taken look at the railways? I'd enjoy reading that.

    1019:

    Iron is a right bastard, really :)

    Even being able to fire pottery still leaves you a long way short, because the melting point is so high... and the more thoroughly you do your processing the higher it gets. So for most of the early history of iron use they weren't even able to get it in a liquid state.

    And it's chemically quite a bit more reactive than any other metal they produced in a pure-ish form (ie. excluding the zinc component of brass because you can cheat with that). It's about at the limit of what you can reduce with carbon, and it works better to exclude oxygen and reduce it with carbon monoxide.

    So you need a blast furnace to properly get started, which is something of a leap in fire technology. They were making them hundreds of years before most people think they were, but it was rather difficult and they weren't very good. It still took a long time before they could get liquid iron out of them.

    Then, as you say, there's the impurities thing - that carbon, and also a whole bunch of other things like nearby transition metals and row-2 elements, can make a most enormous difference to the properties such that you'd hardly think it was the same metal; that it will pick up these impurities from the fuel and the walls of the furnace, and also starts with different ones depending on the ore; that it takes incredibly tiny quantities to make a major difference; and that measuring the amounts of impurities with anything like useful accuracy, let alone controlling the amounts, is incredibly bloody hard. Especially since there are so many possible impurities and many of them weren't even known to exist. So what little they did manage as regards impurity control was extremely laborious, uncertain in result, and highly dependent on specific ores.

    Accordingly, most iron was shit even for most of the 19th century. It required the only-recently-systematised science of chemistry to develop the necessary knowledge and techniques for controlling the levels of impurities so as to consistently achieve a particular spec. An understanding of chemistry is much more important for developing the use of iron than for "easier" metals, and any early iron development would have been hobbled by the lack of it.

    1020:

    You think Brits weren't expansionistic arseholes? We're the Trope Codifier...

    1021:

    A quick check on the Guardian reporting of the 2017 Labour manifesto doesn't mention nationalisation of anything. The one taking-back-into-public-ownership manifesto commitment mentioned is regional ownership of water with no central government involvement i.e. no "British Water" like British Rail, British Steel, British Leyland etc. of old and fond memory.

    1022:

    As for the Nazca, the current story is that made a serious mistake with deforestation and that cost them their water.

    We'll take why Egypt didn't do iron while Mesopotamia did, China did and Europe did for $500.

    Steel takes trees (charcoal, really). What do mountains (esp. if you require agriculture) not have an abundance of? Trees. (c.f. longer discussion about different arboreal types and heat and how generally tropical rainforest wood density is shit compared to colder climates, apart from bamboo).

    So, basicaly: "Herp, Derp, Slow Central Americans" = "We don't understand our own environmentally endowed technological basis".

    looks hard at these, no real links as not on main comp:

    A) Ms Rowling, back on track & curb stomping Trump (grep WSJ stuff, glad to see she made a choice that was ultimately non-Murdoch: "Who do you think you are?!?" they shouted: "Νέμεσις") B) India Water is about to free-fall, no joke: India’s Summer of Water Crisis in 2018 South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People, May 30th, 2018 - metablog, contains a lot of local links / media etc. Might have to read Hindi for some parts. 70%+ is polluted, look for .in papers for an indepth investigation recentently (last 4 days) C) Lindsey Graham made a surprise visit to northern Syria TicToc Bloomberg, 2nd July 2018 - spoilers: the USA is fucking the Kurds and Free Radical Anarchist forces, something rotten, due to Turkey etc. Cunt.

    Anyhow. Host has a deadline to do and our last Sister abandoned us on the 28th to your World (Last Unicorn, Bitch).

    But there's always Light.

    1023:

    Pigeon @ 1015 Oops bare link follows: https://www.londonreconnections.com/2018/thameslink-the-musical-act-4-scene-3-the-grayling-letter/ Try that for laughs, then....

    RP @ 1019 THAT book would be over a thousand pages long ..... A summary of the better-known fuck-ups would be more than sufficient!

    1024:

    Pretty much any iron produced by any process was better than the alternatives of bronze and brass. Using charcoal it's possible to melt and reduce iron ore with limestone, puddle it and work it to make wrought iron without requiring high-temperature ceramics by accepting ablation of the furnace lining, or a proper externally-fired blast furnace. Using charcoal keeps the levels of sulphur and phosphorus down, contaminants that coke or raw coal introduce into the melt to the detriment of the finished product. Even gas-firing pollutes the melt -- one company I worked for changed to inductive electric melting for cast iron to meet tight quality control requirement for SG iron rollers for the paper-making industry in part to reduce gas-burning contaminants in the melt.

    Blowing molten iron to make steel does require blast furnaces but wrought iron is a superior material -- I have a large bar of wrought iron that's probably about 200 years old that I cut chunks off to make things with on the lathe. Facing it down reveals large flaws where it's been worked and folded but not fully welded. It's thicker than a steel bar of the same strength but wrought iron is good enough for agricultural purposes such as mouldboard plough edging, harrow tines and iron horseshoes, three major technical improvements to field work that made a lot of difference to agricultural productivity in the 18th century and later.

    1025:

    I’ll see your human sacrifices and raise you 6000 crucified slaves along the Appian Way.

    Yes, and if you take a close look at the Old Testament, there are several hints of sacrifices, some mass ones, to Yahweh. Of course, it's not nice to point that out in church. See, e.g., Numbers 31.

    1026:

    Actually there were some ancient processes that made quite good steel but it was more or less rare.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wootz_steel

    At some point iron production got to be equivalent to bronze, and then better, but the interesting thing is that the switch seems to have happened BEFORE equivalency. Of course the Bronze Age collapse was happening right around then as well which screwed the trade routes that were needed to make Bronze happen, but it also probably was driven somewhat by way and cheap (and shitty) iron granting the ability to field a much larger army (even if the weapons were shittier, quantity has a quality all its own). Speaking of which, “1177” another great read

    I’ve seen the new round of thinking around why the spainish won, and while I think earlier thinking over emphasizing the spainish military superiority the new round goes to far the other way. It was actually a lot of things working together that enabled Cortez but the weapons, horses, certainly played a major role and did enable the spainish to do some pretty insane things on the battlefield. They also helped a lot both with the early religious awe the Aztecs felt and in gaining the confidence of the allies the spainish needed

    1027:

    Using charcoal it's possible to melt and reduce iron ore with limestone, puddle it and work it to make wrought iron without requiring high-temperature ceramics by accepting ablation of the furnace lining, or a proper externally-fired blast furnace. This is true. As a kid I made a little charcoal furnace out of firebricks and a (electrolux) vacuum cleaner in reverse as a blower. (I have good lungs but not that good. :-) It was able melt a few bits of iron; burnt charcoal really quickly though.

    OL: Really laughed with #secondcivilwarletters . The American right is fetchingly inept at trolling.

    1028:

    A weak argument, you should think in broader terms, really. First, one could hardly say that any highly-regarded competitor is very tolerant to his opponents, drug use notwithstanding.

    You’d be wrong.

    Truly high-performance competitors focus on the performance, not the result. They look to their target; if they achieve it, they’re happy - even if it isn’t good enough to win, they’re still happy. However, if they win with a poor performance, they’re unhappy.

    Take Sir Chris Hoy; I first met him in 1998. Lovely bloke. By 2006 he was an Commonwealth/World/Olympic champion and record holder - and still a lovely bloke. At the 2006 Commonwealth Games, the Scottish Cycling Squad were open and welcoming, and in no way pompous or arrogant (other sports squads within the Scottish team didn’t exactly welcome you if you sat down next to them at a meal). After his gold medal at the 2008 Olympics, he spent a full day at his old school; spoke to every year group, spent time talking to all the kids (from the Junior Primary, all the way up to the school leavers); this wasn’t the first or last time.

    Take Raymond Debevec; Slovenian world record holder (until very recently), world champion, etc, etc. Again, lovely bloke. Takes time to be an athlete representative to the governing body, put a lot of time into representing athletes rather than “sports administrators”. Perfectly willing to spend five minutes at a competition, giving advice to me as an absolute stranger.

    Take Malcolm Cooper - consecutive Olympic gold medals. At the 1988 Olympics, a BBC assistant knocked his rifle over during a pre-competition interview, and broke the stock. It was the Soviet team armourer who pinned and glued his stock so that he could compete (and win his second Gold). I could go on with other examples, but essentially if you meet a competitor who’s a real moron - chances are that they aren’t as great as they’d like you to think.

    A true competitor wants you to put in your best performance - so that when they win, there is no doubt about the result. They want you to put in your peak performance, so that they know that their performance was deserving of the top spot on the podium. They don’t worry about “who did they get in the draw” or “was the seeding appropriate” - they’ll take anyone on, in any order, because it doesn’t and shouldn’t matter.

    1029:

    Anyhow. Host has a deadline to do and our last Sister abandoned us on the 28th to your World (Last Unicorn, Bitch). The Last Unicorn ended well, right? (So disciplined with your obtuseness (and apparently constrained by [whatever]). Anyway, no full failures, IMO. Deeply unusual, yes.)

    But there's always Light. There's always Light.

    Watch this teacher school EPA Scott Pruitt at a restaurant (I do not like that man.)

    1030:

    Ha, very good!

    (But isn't anyone on that site into Jethro Tull?!)

    1031:

    That Vote Leave moral high ground is starting to look very shaky: Vote Leave broke electoral law, Electoral Commission expected to say

    (And how could I have forgotten that Vote Leave were behind the Big Red Bus of Mendacity?)

    1032:

    Second, the use of "doping" itself is probably the last thing person would consciously try after he tried out all other cheats, thieveries and lies that are provided by the rules set in place. Maybe should remind you that Anti-doping Agency is the one that unilaterally defines basic medical rules, changes them and sets the definition of cheating, not you or any other people around.

    Nope. The rules are really quite simple - if you eat normally and healthily, you’re fine. If you start looking to supplement your diet with “special” food extracts (creatine, etc) then you’re pushing it. If you start looking to use pharmaceuticals to “help you train” (steroids, etc), you’re cheating.

    I safely could take aspirin / paracetamol / ibuprofen for pain (no opiates, no codeine); loperamide hydrochloride for an upset stomach; and that was about it. Most cold and influenza medications were excluded, because of the presence of pseudoephedrine. If I got seriously ill, antibiotics were OK, and I wouldn’t be competing or training anyway.

    That’s a nice, clear definition, and my wife and I (we met through sport) never had any problem with following it.

    An the third one, for the last - the anger and desperation of lost competition can only be surpassed by hatred and hysteria of those who still manage to lose despite using entire arsenal of options available of them ("fair" or not), since it defies their logic itself.

    It’s less prevalent in target sports - yet some idiot would get caught, every Commonwealth Games, using beta blockers to calm their nerves. Usually from countries that confused sporting results with international prestige, or where failure meant removal from a comfortable lifestyle of sports funding.

    I lost because (as a largely self-funded amateur) I wasn’t training as hard as the full-time professionals from countries where sports funding was less of an issue; and because I started late, and had limited access to coaching support. I still enjoyed it hugely - I never hated my opponents, I never hated losing. I hated not putting in a performance in line with how I’d been training. When you’re at your first World Cup and find yourself standing on a firing point sandwiched between the current Olympic Champion and the current world record holder (whose PBs are both thirty points better than yours), do you really think you’re trying to outperform them, or to outperform yourself?

    Now, I see several young U.K. athletes doing well because those things were available, and because they work harder than I ever did (the current European Champions in the two womens’ cartridge rifle events are sisters who live in Edinburgh, and who are far better than I ever was).

    1033:

    The article I linked to explicitly mentions nationalising railways, Royal Mail, the energy companies and the water industry but if you still aren't convinced please take a look at the actual manifesto document:

    https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/labour-manifesto-2017.pdf

    Page 19

    "Across the world, countries are taking public utilities back into public ownership. Labour will learn from these experiences and bring key utilities back into public ownership to deliver lower prices, more accountability and a more sustainable economy. We will: • Bring private rail companies back into public ownership as their franchises expire. • Regain control of energy supply networks through the alteration of operator license conditions, and transition to a publicly owned, decentralised energy system. • Replace our dysfunctional water system with a network of regional publicly-owned water companies. • Reverse the privatisation of Royal Mail at the earliest opportunity."

    1034:

    Apparently Leave.EU leaked the report post-football with Grove on BB4 early slot ready to soft-ball it:

    This isn’t the official report. We don’t know the sanction. & it was leaked & spun by Vote Leave who put it out after midnight, post-football. These are criminal offences & @BorisJohnson & @michaelgove are in the frame & really troubling they used state broadcaster to do this Cadwalladr, Twitter, 3rd July 2018

    This is the official Vote Leave campaign, funded with taxpayers’ money & it leaked this report to select outlets. It briefed the Sun yesterday but wouldn’t answer the Guardian’s emails... Cadwalladr, Twitter, 4th July 2018

    Also, lol @Mensch being primed to immediately jump in - her credibility is a dignity wraith at this point, you're scraping the barrel if that's who is you go-to point person.

    CTRL+F "Harry" ...2nd July?!? You'll also spot some 'friends of Republicans' in the mix. Turns out David might have been giving us all the nod on the QT, what say you David?

    p.s.

    That isn't Siri on the phone - there's been some editing going on, the ear-piece is briefing PR / handlers, not AI. But go right ahead and edit in Siri Post hoc ergo propter hoc, the proles won't notice.

    1035:

    CTRL+F "Harry" works twice btw ~ our (allegedly) .RU SF writer has our attention now. And we thought they'd all been exterminated.

    Oh, and it'll be hilarious if David really did QT poke us for this narrative to get spiked, was too distracted by the .RU one to pay much attention to minor politics.

    http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/clever-girl

    1036:

    Have you tried watching Brexit: The Movie?

    My estimations of our new associate are plummeting by the minute (second?). It's pretty naff propaganda with decent production values (musical cues are terribly overwrought, though).

    Talking heads that have popped up so far (should you care to Google, some are instantly recognisable though): James Delingpole, Simon Heffer, Mark Littlewood, Matt Ridley, Kelvin MacKenzie (sanitizes keyboard), Kate Hoey (ffs), David Davis (honk honk -- that's my real nose!), Janet Daley.

    And of course Farage is in there too. Wasn't there something mentioned about Vote Leave distancing themselves from Farage et al? Hm.

    1037:

    No, don't need to (that's not how we process this kind of LYING CAT stuff: we predict / make Futures[tm] direct, don't need to craft bad narratives). The old redemption arc of him shopping his erstwhile collaborators just before the shit-hits-the-fan is kinda sweet in an old fashioned way however:

    So...if Alex & Ross are out and (as far as we know) no-one high profile has been poached to replace them, is this going to be the end of Guido as we know it? Marie Le Conte, Twitter, ~30mins ago or so.

    The problem with outfits like Gaedo Norks is that once a crack appears, there's no end of MacBeth / Caesar Actors more than willing to volunteer their time to enact vengence (or is that Revenge(r)?)

    You can also look up old Harry Cole. We predict he's going to have a rough week. To keep it topical: They think it's all over

    ~

    Anyhow, @Host - Pivoted enough yet? UK politics is kinda depressingly predictable.

    1038:

    Sorry you don't like it. Given the time (about 10 weeks) and the budget (c.£300k) I think we did a reasonable job. Of course it's propaganda - it was always supposed to be. Given the constraints we operated within I think getting it out there and watched by c.4 million people before the vote was a good outcome.

    VL did distance themselves from Nigel Farage. We weren't part of VL, and he does have a couple of small appearances in the film.

    1039:

    Yes this doesn't sound great does it? Further to OGH's original post it is interesting that the Electoral Commission refused to even interview anyone at VL in relation to these allegations and has consistently refused to follow-up on similar allegations made about the Remain campaign.

    1040:

    However, it is mendacious misleading bollocks.

    So yes, "good outcome" on lying to a wide audience with conviction.

    Also: You have claimed not to be a fellow traveller with hard right and neo-Nazi types with a strong anti-immigration agenda, are you also claiming that you had no idea about the kind of people Farage was courting, associating with, and representing before using him in your video? Again, this is either incredible naïveté or wilful obfuscation, or will you claim that you had no input in the decision to include Farage?

    Final question: Since you're convinced that Brexit is a good option for the UK; can you explain how this it's going to benefit the whole of the UK? As I mentioned previously: It's rightly going to fuck up the part of the UK that I live in, or are you yet another in a long line of Brexiteers who don't really have any concept of (or much care about) the specific issues faced by Northern Ireland?

    1041:

    TtP @ 1036 Delingpole? Now thewre's a really unpleasant object, persistent Climate denier & all-round liar, as far as I can see.

    1042:

    Also at least one appearance by Nigel Lawson. That looks good now, doesn't it?

    Majority of talking head time in the first 20 minutes seems to have been; Delingpole, Farage, and MacKenzie. What a toxic mix.

    I pity the fools who were suckered in by this nonsense; it entirely rests its message on the idea that no one is going to bother actually going and educating themselves about the EU. Such staggering arrogance and condescension.

    1043:

    So, the F-16 is better? I'm not sure top speed matters much, armor is nice for CAS, and we need something in the role. What ever good the gun was, it's not a big win now. My point is that we need something for CAS, and yes, an upgraded crop duster is probably the right choice (which is slower). And we need something for the fantasies of WW-III.

    1044:

    I mean, that's the reality of elections. Most people don't research topics in depth. That's why successful campaigns rely on emotional appeals ("Yes we can", "Vote Leave, Take Control").

    Also:

    "I pity the fools who were suckered in by this nonsense; it entirely rests its message on the idea that no one is going to bother actually going and educating themselves about the EU. Such staggering arrogance and condescension."

    Mote / beam, much?

    1045:

    Wrought iron is MUCH more corrosion-resistant than almost all steels, but it's also softer than bronze. And, while the process you are describing doesn't require much chemistry, it's complex and needs a fairly large industrial base.

    1046:

    David has apparently decided to either block us or cease interacting with us.

    But it's all there in Black and White: 2nd July in your Minds precedes the 3rd / 4th. So, whatever his thoughts, he's part of the spiked narrative contra-Leave.EU, no matter his desires.

    The News, Before It's News: he wanted to shape reality, so there we are. How does it feel Davidcshipley, to know our ways? Got cognitive dissonance yet or not spotted how it works in the Big Picture[tm]?

    Luckily, no-one reads tiny blogs, eh?

    nose wiggle

    smells panicky

    Oh, freebie bonus round: Ms. Mensch has gone and done something really silly and she's poking 100% the wrong Bears[-1] and it's not a good look, take #3985. She's probably going to start being Milo'd soon when they notice she's not got good old USA Passport Protection / Cultural Immunity to rank stupidity.

    ~

    To answer in general: they're (Dirk types as well) banking on the EU collapsing (grep the IMF reports already linked, esp. on Italy) and/or fracturing - the Germans shifting on immigration ("border camps" as AF Neil gloatingly and slimely declared, no link, just find his twitter, but sample[0]) and Turkey[1] and France is pulling some oddities as well[2]. The Market Boys are betting on China's bubble being a lot worse than the official statements show and are sharpening knives[3] ready for a pre-blow-out prep for the Big Meltdown while the Tommy Boys are collective having a mass circle-jerk about Footy & Germany (both falling out of the Cup, but also "kow-towing" to their perceived wisdom).

    But no-one got an orgasm in June apart from Women, so there's some Big Blue Balls going around.

    The TL;DR is that it's all feeling a bit like 2011/2 pre-UKIP TIME again, with some serious [redacted] (re)awakening.

    ~

    As an important one, the EU is about to totally shaft everyone (allegedly) over charging for links[4] and messing up how hyperlinks work. Which would basically outlaw how we write, or at the very least, make it financially untenable for Host.

    So there's that: it's not making enough noise since the USA basically rammed Net Neutrality through ("Will of the People", eh?[5]).

    Anyhow: Pivot that Divot! £5mil to police Trump's golf club, chances are a trident accidental misfire occurs? Offering 10-1 odds!

    [-1] The @Ocasio2018-is-a-Russian-asset take has finally arrived, courtesy of the person the NYT Op-Ed presented as its Russia expert on the eve of US Congressional hearings into the 2016 election. Glenn Greenwald, 3rd July, 2018

    [0] Merkel migration deal’s domino effect Politico, 3rd July, 2018 grep: "Lizard Lounge want M&M witch burning" or something similar - they expected Merkel to be more weakened than she is, but immigration tightening is seen as a victory by the neo-Fascists / Tommy lot and will only encourage them. No-one's explained why Switzerland has so many processing camps already though, might have to poke that one.

    [1] Latest elections: According to unofficial results as of writing, Erdoğan received 52.5 percent of the vote—an outright victory, bucking opinion polls that predicted a run-off—with opposition candidate Muharrem İnce receiving 30.6 percent. However, Erdoğan’s AKP (Justice and Development Party) fell short of expectations with 42.5 percent of the vote, regressing by more than 7 points since November 2015. This translates to 295 seats for the AKP in the parliament, short of the 301 needed for a majority. AKP’s ally the MHP (Nationalist Action Party) received 11.1 percent of the vote and obtained 49 seats in parliament, compensating somewhat for AKP’s poor performance.

    How to read Turkey’s election results Brookings Institute 25th June 2018

    [2] Emmanuel Macron wants to bring back national service in France Economist 1st Mar 2018

    France's Macron brings back national service BBC 27th June 2018

    [3] Markets in Asia falter, with China declining as trade concerns simmer CNBC, 4th July, 2018

    [4] Tell your MEP: Stop Copyright Censorship OpenMedia, 'Save the Link' campaign, July 2018

    [5] AT&T raising streaming service DirecTV Now's prices by $5 Dallas News, 2nd July 2018

    1047:

    I think that DavetheProc is being too polite. The voters were suckered into voting leave by 30 years of mendacious and malicious propaganda, by people who are intending to harm the UK people's best interest as well as the UK's 'independence'. We have been sold down the river (and it's worth looking up the origin of that expression, because it describes what I mean).

    1048:

    So, David, why do you hate Britain?

    1049:

    So, let’s see:

  • Arguing that if everyone does it it is ok. (Some strong moral foundations you got there. Mate.)

  • Resorting to the awesome rhetorical technique of: “I know you are, but what am I?” (For what it’s worth, I educated myself about the basics of the EU parliamentary setup during the referendum and passed that on to anyone apparently unaware; and I just called you out as either a liar, a fool, or an opportunistic propagandist. No motes or beams in sight.)

  • I note that you’re no longer bothering to deny being a fellow traveller of Farage and his ilk (which would admittedly be a little silly at this point).

  • You ignored the one real question in my reply. As I was fairly certain you would.

  • Addendum: Your video pretty much regurgitates the lies and nonsense referred to by EC @1048. Again, your previous attempt to distance yourself from hard right elements now looks ridiculous (and yes, I am being extremely polite here).

    1050:

    I see your point, and actually some of my submodules thinking the same way is likely the reason I'm somewhat uncomfortable with the methylphenidate[1][2].

    But I think the examples you're mentioning just show why the whole system is broken on a much more fundamental level. There's an old saying in pharmacology there's no effect without side effects, and we could start a long discussion about use, misuse and abuse of medications. Which includes some of the medications you mentioned.

    Opioids might be banned for the potential of overcoming pain as a physical warning signal and as a factor in fatigue. Problem is, as you mentioned NSAIDs are still alowed, and at least in me the pain due to exercise is quite admenable to NSAIDs. Also, my dieing cousins brother-in-law is using ibuprofen in quite high dosages (around 1g, IIRC) because it helps him with endurance; please note this is not your usual doping scenario, he's diagnosed with multiple sclerosis, and it's OK with his doctors. So not regulating them might be quite a nice loophole.

    NSAIDs having quite a higher organ toxicity than opioids is another issue,

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonsteroidal_anti-inflammatory_drug#Adverse_effects

    so banning opioid and allowing NSAIDs might be both futile from a abuse prevention POV and unhealthy from a therapeutic POV.

    As for loperamide, there's another loophole. BTW, I'm not using it myself for two reasons, first of I usually want to get rid of the oozing ichor from hell as fast as possible when experiencing one of my IBS phases.

    And second of, I'm not sure how it'd work out with my other medications (last time I looked, there where three antihpertensives involved). Loperamide is said to be only peripherically acting, but actually it crosses the blood-brain barrier, it just gets pumped out by a protein that's inhibited by quite a few other drugs, thus usually having no central mu-opioid effects:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-glycoprotein#Drug_interactions

    Usually:

    http://www.bluelight.org/vb/threads/296086-Loperamide-(Immodium)-Megathread-We-have-now-lost-at-least-2-of-our-own-from-Lope

    (Added fun: some of the metabolites of loperamide are quite similar structurally and biochemically to MPTP of "frozen addict" fame.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15319335

    So even if I wanted an opioid buzz[3], I'd stay away from it.)

    And if opioid users can do it, why not athletes? So still a loophole.

    In both of these cases you could close this loophole by banning the substances involved, but you'd loose quite a few people who are treating medical conditions with them and think competitive sports are not worth the hazzle, e.g. with NSAIDs quite some migraine patients who don't respond to or can't take triptanes.

    As for the psychostimulants, it's somewhat interesting caffeine is missing from the WADA list linked to below, though it was quite effective in some tests:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4432086/

    It's on the monitored list, though, along with bupropion, phenylpropanolamine and pipradrol. Which all can have a quite stimulant-like effect on motivation, so there is another loophole.

    You see, as mentioned, I'm seeing your point, and quite often I'm even thinking myself that maybe the MPh gives me an undue advantage in discussions and like, at least if I'm not concerned it might stiffle me creativity by curbing my head chaos, hello to my submodules fighting it out between themselves.

    Or wonder if said "creativity" might just be chemically induced because after all it's a psychomotor stimulant; but then, I'm usually not sounding like Mantegazza, who was using a substance with a somewhat similar pharmacological profile: "...I, carried on the wings of two leaves of coca, went flying through the spaces of 77,438 words, each more splendid than the one before..."

    And if I go through my memory, I remember the short story I wrote in elementary school about breaking through a trapdoor "Can I play with Madness"-style into an alchemist laboratory and unintentionally summoning some creature, just like the creator does in "The Case of Charles Dexter Ward". So, well, nothing changed...

    In the end, I can live with MPh mainly helping with my endurance (AKA "sustained concentration"), and mainly just me living up to my potential, whatever that is. It's no wonder drug, and upping the dosage would have no added effect, in fact I have afeeling of being less creative on higher dosages, where I'm somewhat unsure if it's too high an inhibitory effect or I can't make out individual thoughts because I'm too wired up.

    Which is BTW quite similar to quite a few other substances on the WADA list, too high a dose is not just unhealthy, but it's detrimental to performance. But I digress.

    Still, you can have a similar effect with perfectly legal, though somewhat unhealthy methods; coming back to better living through (phyto)chemistry, I could up my Camellia sinensis habit, and start smoking again (e-shishas are a kind of seductive concept, though still not that healthy...).

    If memory serves well, the caffeine/nicotine heightened performance to a similar degree as my 0.05mg/kg body weight MPh. And with the WADA list, it would be legal. Not particularly healthy, 800mg caffeine is not that kind to the heart, but legal.

    Let's admit it, people do a bunch of unhealthy things to their bodies, and this quite often includes athletes in training. So instead of WADA enforcing post-1968 rollback cultural norms concerning recreational psychopharmacology (I guess this list would look quite different if written by an Inca or a Somali), I think we should ban ANY unhealthy training methods. If this'd mean e.g. the end of professional soccer it'd be a nice side effect, I'm quite content Germany is out, not that it's any quiter after games with the Russians still in...

    (We could talk about workaholics, sleep deprivation and modern capitalism next, but one thing at a time...)

    [1] Another is it might interfere somewhat with my creative thinking; I'might try to think about that one a little longer before answering to mr. amedhi though. See the talk about overdose. My neurologist was somewhat amused when I quoted Ernst Jünger on the difference between coffee and tea and added I got that one from "LSD: My problem child", BTW.

    [2] Though there is another reason I can't go into competitive sports, hydrochlorothiazide, AKA HCT, a diuretic, against hypertension. Also used to dilute urine and thus mask steroid use, there is also a minor use case in sports stratified by weight class because they are a fast way to lose weight, which also might be preferable due to other reasons. And thus on the WADA list:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_drugs_banned_by_WADA#Diuretics_and_masking_agents

    [3] Not that I'm in any way constrained, there is still some Tilidine lying around from my father's broken arm episode last year. Somewhat funny when you know my parents asked me to show my arms when I was dealing with severe depression at around 22, I looked somewhat buzzed, I hadn't started hard drugs. They say they were joking...

    1051:
    (who actually are neither rapists, nor mostly from Mexico).

    It might be something of an international phenomenon; you read the comment sections of newspapers at your own risk, but I was somewhat amused when someone talked about Turkish immigrants after an article about a brawl. The one side being East Germans and the other side led by one guy with a surname ending with -ian.

    Of course, quite a few Turkish people are descended from Armenian orphans from the genocide, still.

    The two scrap collectors I talked to one hour ago actually being Romanian and not Turkish or Arabic as I thought is another issue. Might have been amn oppurtunity to try another Romance language (beside Italian or French), though I might have used some of the little Sanskrit I remember... ;)

    TL,DR, don't trust people complaining about alls the Mexican or Turkish running around...

    1052:

    Senate Intel Committee just released its report

    See

    https://www.burr.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/SSCI%20ICA%20ASSESSMENT_FINALJULY3.pdf

    and

    https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/press/intel-committee-releases-unclassified-summary-initial-findings-2017-intelligence-community

    “Our investigation thoroughly reviewed all aspects of the January 2017 ICA, which assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign to target our presidential election and to destabilize our democratic institutions,” said Vice Chairman Warner. “As numerous intelligence and national security officials in the Trump administration have since unanimously re-affirmed, the ICA findings were accurate and on point. The Russian effort was extensive and sophisticated, and its goals were to undermine public faith in the democratic process, to hurt Secretary Clinton and to help Donald Trump. While our investigation remains ongoing, we have to learn from 2016 and do more to protect ourselves from attacks in 2018 and beyond.”
    1053:

    I expect that to be true, my issue is that I want us to maintain the capability until a replacement is actually online and working. A-10 to upgraded crop duster to drone is fine by me. Or, hey, stop stirring up brushfire wars all over the world? But, I try to be realistic.

    For an example, in SAC's haste to get rid of the SR-71, we were left with our pants down in the gulf war, Vietnam had markedly more lower latency in reconnaissance information that we did there (it was a couple of hours for the first take on info, and delivery of film).

    CAS is not a job the Air Force wants to do.

    1054:

    It’s less prevalent in target sports - yet some idiot would get caught, every Commonwealth Games, using beta blockers to calm their nerves. Usually from countries that confused sporting results with international prestige, or where failure meant removal from a comfortable lifestyle of sports funding.

    I'd just like to note that, if you were in any doubt, this is exactly the motivation behind the sad puppy/rabid puppy dragooning nonsense in the Hugo awards a few years ago, and their whole kulturkampf stance against minority representation in fictional formats (be they books, movies, games, or whatever).

    Real artists like competition: it's no fun winning an award if half (or more) of the competitors are hobbled from the starting line—the achievement is undermined and devalued.

    1055:

    The lump of wrought iron I've got in the workshop is rusty as hell but it's a lot harder than a piece of bearing bronze I have sitting on the shelf, a simple scratch test proves that.

    Any hammer-worked iron has a surface hardened finish that's somewhat resistant to corrosion, true but it's not totally resistant to rust and filing or machining a hammer-worked piece will take that protective surface right off. There's a survivor bias that leads some people to think wrought iron per se is corrosion-proof, it's not a material made much these days (although you might find some educational Youtube videos of people trying to work meteorite iron) so any samples found in the wild have lasted and hence are though to be corrosion-proof. Mostly they've been looked after, painted and treated -- the Clfiton Suspension Bridge's support rods, for example. The wrought iron framings on an abandoned barge rotting away in an estuary that rusted away into oblivion are not around to contradict that belief.

    1056:

    A crop-duster (typical airspeeds of 200-300 mph) or even a turboprop (top speed about 400mph) tasked for CAS is still slow and will take precious time to get to a position requiring air support.The F-16 is the go-to plane for the US for such work since it's quick and capable.

    As for the SR-71... the Sled was designed and tasked with penetrating Soviet borders in quick in-out photoreconnaissance operations, usually of places of interest near the coast such as naval installations. It gobbled fuel at high speed and required multiple specialist tankers orbiting in safe air off the Soviet coast to do its job -- ISTR a 12-hour multiple penetration SR-71 mission required eight such tankers for coverage and safety. As for prompt intelligence, they used film cameras that had to be flown back to base, unloaded, developed, scanned, analysed etc. By Gulf War 1 (I presume that's the one you were referring to) Keyhole satellites were delivering continuous real-time multispectral images over a wide front as well as pinpoint details where necessary.

    Next thing you'll be telling us it was a bad idea to retire the Iowa-class battleships in the 1980s...

    1057:

    Yet another stain-glassed window in the cathedral of conspiracy. Rob Burl, BBC Editor, 4th July 2018, responding to Jo Maugham QC's complaint that his pro-Remain critique of the news drop wasn't aired properly.

    He's getting ratio'd (for Greg etc: this is when a Tweet gets more responses than likes, it's a sign of public disapproval) and taken apart in the comments.

    It's not going well, and getting worse.

    wonders where Davidcshipley is

    1058:

    David should probably have grepped our obsession with cracking mirrors.

    Just sayin'

    1059:

    Going through the backlist somewhat...

    Oh yes, the Old Prussians who to the dismay of any "baltistiker" don't speak any Old Prussian (there goes a joke from my time with "Western Slavistik", aka western slavic philology, I only stayed for learning some Polish, and at leat my alcohol consumption back in the day made me fit quite in...)

    Actually the nomenclature would be somewhat different for most of those; as for the general term, the persons involved were classified as "Heimatvertriebene" when emigrating to Germany:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heimatvertriebene

    To use some examples, the people from Königsberg/Kaliningrad and around would be "Ostpreußen"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Prussia

    somewhat to the South it would be "Masuren"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Masuria

    (not to be confused with Mazovia, which is actually most likely the part my real surname, not the Trottelreiner pseudonym comes from.)

    In the West, there'd be Pommern,

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pomerania

    though this group is not that present in the public consciousness.

    Well, to elaborate, I know quite a few people of East Prussian descent, including the friend who wanted to reintroduce the German monarchy; might be some assortative mating with high cheekbones and hints of an epicanthic fold. I know quite a few German Silesians, actually my maternal grandfather's family moved from there to the Ruhr some years before WWII and would be classified as thus. But I know no Pommerian "Heimatvertriebene", having read some Günther Grass aside; I have a feeling that part never got repopulated that much after the Thirty Years War...

    As for the German Silesians, there are also the Sudeten Germans, whose homeland is today part of Czech Republic. I'm not that sure how they are related to Silesians, actually.

    As for the language these groups used used, it ranged from German, often with a lot of Slavic and Baltic influence to a Western Slavic language as with the Masurians.

    Theoretically it might have been some Baltic language[1], though I'm not aware of any, Old Prussian dieing out in the 17th century, IIRC. Same for Finnic languages.

    As an aside to Russian politics, complicated ethnical demographies are more of a norm than an exeption in pre-WWI Europe.

    [1] There were also quite some Lituanians involved, which shows in Klaus Wowereit's name.

    1060:

    Ok interesting - currently in a pub chatting to a mate who does have professional expertise in this field. Apparently this isn't necessarily an issue if you have a nationalised rail service - you can maintain that status without a problem.

    If you have a system with tendering then you have to abide by the letter of your tender. The tender document can't just be qualitative - there have to be objective, quantitative measures. In that scenario a company that doesn't win could take the government / state to court for breaching anti-competitive laws.

    That being said a smart group of civil service lawyers could write a tender that makes it hard for a non-state entity to bid successfully but even then if a company put an objectively better bid in then they'd have legal recourse.

    A UK company would have recourse to UK courts then the ECJ.

    Apparently the WTO might also take a view if two countries were in dispute (e.g. if a French company had a dispute with the UK government then the French might pursue the UK in the WTO).

    All of that being said, a UK government would be totally free to fully nationalise the railways and no longer have to abide by this. This is because the UK has a "margin of appreciation" which allows us to run a nationalised railway network if we want.

    (we'll be here for a bit and he's taking questions if you have any follow-ups!)

    1061:

    So, 1. No it isn't ok. It's wrong. Breaking electoral law is wrong. If the allegations against VL are true they are really bad.

  • No. I thought your characterising of others who disagree with you as fools / idiots was a displaying of arrogance / condescension.

  • I'm not a fellow traveller w/ Farage. I'm pro-migration. It's a little dull repeatedly saying that when you are clearly unprepared to believe me.

  • Was your question on Lawson? Or did I miss something - if so apologies and please point me to it.

  • Addendum - depends what you mean by hard right - it's clearly a libertarian film, but it's also clearly an internationalist film which isn't anti-migration.

    1062:

    (we'll be here for a bit and he's taking questions if you have any follow-ups!)

    Instead of retweeting Kneado Flukes Order Order nonsense, ask your expert how well he thinks this PR move is going down. (Hint: disaster)

    Or try looking @ 1046 and explain what you think is happening.

    Coincidence, funny old world, etc etc.

    1063:

    I am going to provide as much hand-holding as I am willing to, but I am suspicious that despite a clear thread of posts you are asking for clarification and misattributing my questions, so only the once:

  • The post I replied to didn't mention electoral fraud. Not sure why you think I was talking about that. (More obfuscation? Uncomfortable about the morals of propaganda?)

  • I characterized people who believed a big fat bag of distortions, misrepresentations, and lies when more accurate information was easily available as "fools", and I used the word "pity" because I genuinely do pity them (in the empathic not snide sense of the word) -- many have been badly misled into voting for something that will hurt them and others, while being promised rainbows and unicorns.

  • When you lie down with dogs, be prepared to get fleas ...

  • Read through the thread of posts. It's pretty clear what the question was.

  • Addendum: You seem to be only willing to think of "hard right" in terms of anti-migration. It is not the only feature of that mindset. I am unsure whether you are genuinely unclear on that, or are attempting some sort of cack-handed gaslighting.

    (Note: Having a fairly normal, for values thereof, life, I don't expect to be replying again for a while.)

    1064:

    It's obviously hilarious that some people on here have decided I'm an MI5 front / Russian psy-ops entity / etc etc

    Note: we've no doubt that David will ignore us but it's getting hilarious out there.

    You do realize that @GCHQ knows the #FBPE botnet is a Russian one, don’t you? Because they do know it. Just a heads up Louise Mensch, 4th July, 2018

    Note for Greg & others:

    @GCHQ sends the tweet to their account, it's basically pinging them directly to get their attention

    FBPE are/were somewhat annoying but mostly educated Remainer Uni middle-class types who add that hashtag to their names to denote their loyalty group[0] - it's certainly paid for and organized, but 100% not .RU bots. What happened was that Brexit groups / actual Alt-Right organizers on Gab[1] 're-appropriated it / poisoned-the-well', including BBC women (who really should know better).

    This is all old, old news: Mensch using it as an attack vector is just comedy prat-fall at this point.

    The foreshadowing mirror-verse Game is going strong.

    p.s.

    £300k? This drubbing is just highlighting how bad most of these players are. Do we get to do a Penalty Shoot-Out?

    [0] #FBPE: what is the pro-EU hashtag spreading across social media? Guardian, 17th Jan 2018

    [1] Racist Twitter

    1065:

    That's the situation in the U.S. as well. 30-40 years of lies and half-truths, plus a little help from Putin - just enough to push us over the edge.

    1066:

    I still won't buy any books by the Puppies. Fuck those people!

    1067:

    First off, the bronze age collapse surviving information is (not counting archaeological dig records) far less than the amount of babble we've produced on this particular blog entry. It's a pareidola: the surviving pieces can be put into any shape you like.

    IIRC, the Assyrians were manufacturing respectable amounts of iron just prior to the bronze age collapse (around 1177 BCE), but the collapse, whatever it was, didn't come from Assyrians conquering the eastern Mediterranean.

    The equally good guess is that the collapse of the really long networks for getting bronzemaking materials (tin from Cornwall and Afghanistan, copper from all over) forced local tool makers to bite the bullet and use the huge amounts of charcoal needed to smelt iron and use that instead, as the Assyrian technology spread.

    The other thing to remember is that what passed for civilization in the bronze age was strongmen in walled cities calling each other "brother," and the surviving giant statues of their Dear Leaders is smaller than what you see in modern authoritarian countries only because they lacked the materials to make really giant statues.

    Wootz started showing up around 600 BCE, of course assuming that the first so-called wootz crucibles were perfect and that the process never advanced for the next 2000 years or so... (in other words, what we think of as the most ancient wootz could have been merely better than the crap made with charcoal around the Mediterranean...).

    I'd agree with you that the Spanish Conquistadors had a military edge. However, I don't think it was in technology, I think it was in making and betraying allies. Both the Aztecs and Inka seem to have been taken down by these foreigners showing up, figuring out how to translate to the local language really, really fast, forming a coalition against rulers of unpopular regimes that were in trouble due to a combination of unpopular, expansionistic politics and rulers who weren't political geniuses, taking down that regime, installing themselves in its place, betraying their allies, and then enslaving the population in a (sometimes futile) attempt to pay off the gambling debts that led them to go conquistador in the first place. IIRC, Cortez was so desperate for cash he even reneged on paying his own soldiers, even while disease and mismanagement crashed the Mexican population around him.

    That, unfortunately, is the real innovation that Medieval Europe exported to create both colonial empires and modern capitalism. However, it's much more palatable to say that our ancestors conquered the world due to their highly advanced weapons technology...

    Parallels with what's going on in the White House and in billionaires' mansions around the world are strictly coincidental, of course.

    1068:

    A crop-duster (typical airspeeds of 200-300 mph) or even a turboprop (top speed about 400mph) tasked for CAS is still slow and will take precious time to get to a position requiring air support.

    Ya think?

    Halve those speeds. Crop dusters typically work just above stall speed, around 40-60 mph; proceeding to/from base they may go 2-3 times faster.

    Turboprops ... not many of them hit 400 mph; to go faster you generally end up with blade tips that are going supersonic and annoy the neighbours, as in you can hear them coming from over the horizon. There are some exceptions (ignoring the obvious one, the Tu-95 family): the Bombardier Dash-8 Q400 cruises at 360 knots, which is almost up there ... but mostly turboprops aren't any faster than piston engined birds: they're just more economical.

    The A-10 is, shockingly, faster than almost any modern turboprop (its never-exceed speed is 450 knots). On the other hand, Super Tucano cost $8-16M each depending on configuration (and are a contemporary next-step-up turboprop COIN platform); the A-10 cost $19M back in 1977, so more like $30-50M in today's money.

    1069:

    Steel takes trees (charcoal, really). What do mountains (esp. if you require agriculture) not have an abundance of? Trees. (c.f. longer discussion about different arboreal types and heat and how generally tropical rainforest wood density is shit compared to colder climates, apart from bamboo).

    Wow, this is a work of art. Congratulations.(?)

    Mountains not having trees. Yeah right. Don't get out much, do you? To national parks? The Alps? The biggest trees (google giant sequoia, and Pando the world's biggest aspen clone) both live in mountains. Tropical montane forests are a major thing globally. What do you think mountain gorillas live in, deserts?

    And the Andes have the Amazon on their eastern flanks.

    Speaking of the Amazon, wood density there runs from balsa at the light end to bulletwood at the heavier end (actually, lignum vitae is even denser). Wood density has precisely nothing to do with latitude. It has slightly more to do with successional status, but even that is overly simplistic.

    And India, home of Wootz, is of course tropical, while Subsaharan Africa (tropics) went from stone straight to ironworking, while the SE Asia had its own, poorly known, bronze age before they made iron.

    That's why it's worth looking at earthenware, pottery, ceramics, and porcelain. Each one requires a progressively hotter fire. You can make an earthenware pot in a fire on the beach, but it doesn't last very long. Completely vitrified porcelain requires an extremely hot fire that you only get in a kiln. Kilns and smelters are structurally fairly similar, at least to my eye. For whatever reason, kiln technology appears to have shown up fairly early in Eurasia and very late in the New World. As a result probably of the kiln idea spreading, smelting really took off throughout Eurasia and Africa (starting around 3000 BCE and spreading for thousands of years is what "really took off" means), while the technology was discovered apparently independently in the Andes and Central America thousands of years later.

    You can see this in their pots. The Inca and Aztecs never produced hard ceramics, let alone porcelain.

    1070:

    Truly high-performance competitors focus on the performance, not the result. They look to their target; if they achieve it, they’re happy - even if it isn’t good enough to win, they’re still happy. However, if they win with a poor performance, they’re unhappy.

    Oh, I see, it was probably inconsiderate of me to mention those who are really engaged in the competition on fair terms. I mean, they are the major reason why we still have a resemblance of international sport competition in "unipolar" world, in which one order is supposed to be exceptional in everything. Let me formulate it different, then. I have no doubt that high-performing (not exactly the same as "highly-regarded") people are keeping their faith for the sole purpose of performance advancement - since nobody knows their limit, it is important to aim for the best anyway. But it is the same reason people would subscribe to using special medicine, diet or health plan to increase it, and this sort of attitude is prone to corruption, if honed for too long. In fact, it is inevitable. The difference is drawn by The Agency anyway, because there's too many cases in the past where people managed to ruin their health (and E. Germany is barely a sole example).

    Secondly, I was also mentioning non-medical terms of cheating, which involve everything from polemics to direct falsification. Everything that human does and everything that surrounds him is affecting his performance, and thus determines the outcome of competition. I'm not a big fan of sport and not a even close, but something tells me that there's a lot of things besides health (and even ominous presence) that is important in such situation. It may be jet-lag, or living conditions, or pacing of the events, or food and drinks, air, weather and especially psychology, ruling and judgement. Everything can be used for that influence, but to a different degree. As example, recent attempts to blame FIFA for tolerating certain team's doping in World Cup - because football/soccer is a command game and we are yet to invent a drug that would dramatically increase ability of team to coordinate their actions.

    Nope. The rules are really quite simple - if you eat normally and healthily, you’re fine. If you start looking to supplement your diet with “special” food extracts (creatine, etc) then you’re pushing it. If you start looking to use pharmaceuticals to “help you train” (steroids, etc), you’re cheating.

    There's still shades of definitions like "normality" and "healthy". Some people do train since their childhood, others don't ever have a chance to go in such league, no matter how they try, even if they are really healthy (although there's a whole lot of other leagues). The most difficult part is not even achieving a major sport record, but keeping it up to your reputation - even though human peak physical and mental condition is usually around early-mid 20s, many want to keep doing it for longer, aren't they? This is where we come to the executive side, sponsorship and patronizing, I guess. Not that it is really impossible to go anywhere without them, but as you said, it is pretty discouraging. Those who are not themselves involved with the competition but are interested in results of their patrons, are even less inclined to keep the competition clean. The best tactics such people in that area can fall back to, if they are confronted with hard questions is to plainly state that "it was cheating, because the court ruled that".

    Usually from countries that confused sporting results with international prestige, or where failure meant removal from a comfortable lifestyle of sports funding. Basically every single one of them. When you see something like a advertisement that says "performance program", with lists of methods and techniques, there's no need to explain anything - there's simply no borders between "still acceptable" and "rather unhealthy" other than those that are outlined in documents. How can a competitive sport has anything to do with "health" if it requires so much recovery? As I said, the proverbial "meldonium" that was added to the list, was not classified ad "drug" before the new rule was set, because everybody considered it to have "supplementary" and "recovery" effect. In the US and other markets (from which meldonium was quite forcibly barred after USSR dissolution) there's a half-dozen similar medicines used absolutely freely and, most importantly, to the same effect (although it is said there's no direct analogue). They are called B11 vitamin and analogues, if you did not know yet. https://www.forbes.com/sites/ritarubin/2016/03/08/what-is-meldonium-the-banned-drug-for-which-maria-sharapova-tested-positive/#b2e144c335ae

    And of course, the higher you go in the hierarchy, the more stupid it becomes. You don't ask people if they do injections of "not-drugs" and "allowed" pills to perform and recover better, but it is pretty easy to observe from different angles. https://fitnessedge.net/lipotropic-injections/amino-acids/carnitine/#types-of-supplements

    As for me, even though I am not a sportsman and not even close, but I like to have a bike or a ski ride on occasion (it is fairly easy to do in the city quite smaller than a capital). Not because of special preference, but because my lack of social skills - I would prefer to do camping and tourism otherwise. The only sport I ever participated in was some low-grade local/community cybersport. I can understand desire of people to compete and achieve something that is about their physical and mental capacity. But otherwise, I fail to grasp the ultimate purpose of international sport, as it is too often politically motivated rather than fuelled by individual ambitions. Healthy human body and mind should not be tailored competition in one certain area, it should excel in many areas to the maximum integral capacity. If somebody ever attempts it.

    1071:

    Hm, my personal idea concerning the Late Bronze Age Collapse for some time is things like take your favourite hobby horse of the moment, it's the new Decline of the Roman Empire(tm) were happening all the time, leading to a local disruption of the long range trading networks in these areas due to "banditry"(including local potentates demanding higher money for protection), lack of goods to pay for commerce or plain lack of demand due to depopulation.

    It's just the wound was usually self-cauterizing, this breakdown of commerce also meant there was no bronze, so who- or whatever infested that local hellhole couldn't spread.

    Then comes iron production, and the restless natives can produce $WEAPONS on the spot. Worse quality than proper bronze weapons, but in larger quantities. And thus "have sword/spear, will travel". With the ensuing disruption adding new recruits to who-/whatever is spreading from the original hellhole. Or hellholes.

    Which is why I'm not sure if to be worried about cheap 3D printers...

    1072:

    Though you'd like that one (^^) - making fun of 'problematic tropes'.

    Any idea why kiln technology took longer to develop?

    Cuzco Inca pottery (also called ‘Imperial Inca’,‘Classical Inca’, or ‘Inca Fine Wares’) was made during the Late Horizon Period (c. 1400-1532 AD). It was probably made in or around Cuzco, the capital of the Inca Empire, to judge by the quantity found there and the occurrence of shapes and designs unknown elsewhere. The pottery is highly recognisable, very standardised in technology, form and design, and of excellent quality. This is all in marked contrast to earlier wares and to other Late Horizon wares of the region, and suggests a unique level of production control. The sudden appearance of these wares, fully-formed, in the archaeological record of the Late Horizon, and the nature of many contexts in which they occur, give credence to the widely-held view that Cuzco Inca pottery was a political artefact, created by the Inca state for the benefit of the Inca elite and their favoured clients, and that its production was state-controlled. The Cuzco Inca style was influential in the development of pottery-making across the Inca Empire, where‘provincial Inca’ wares, based on a selection of Cuzco prototypes, were produced in state-controlled potteries

    The use of andesite temper in Inca and pre-Inca pottery from the region of Cuzco, Peru UCL, PDF, legal.

    Their thesis is quite interesting (the paper is actually fairly geology / chemist technical):

    The ATF has not been firmly identified in pottery made outside the Cuzco region and, within the region, it was used exclusively for Cuzco Inca pottery...

    Andesite itself has particularly valuable properties that contribute to the serviceability of large vessels: the sharp-edged, angular grains and their irregular surface topographies make strong bonds with the clay (Ixer and Lunt1991, 160). ATF, then, could be described as a ‘dream fabric’, one that promoted manufacturing and firing consistency; could be used for a range of forms and sizes; was appropriate for the traditional firing techniques and local conditions; and was especially suitable for the largest, and therefore most demanding, pots in the repertoire.

    i.e. Ironically, Inca had a clay mixture available that was so good / unique that they weren't forced to develop better technology (c.f. porcelain, China, Western theft to Germany etc) and the state used it as a control technique[0] thus stifling innovation.

    It's not an area I know anything about, but it's interesting.

    ~

    And yes, We're just playing around since Davidcshipley's (ex?)crew are all having a really bad day and we're finding it genuinely funny (if depressing) at what's happening while they all try to pretend that it's totes a 'conspiracy theory' and so on.

    The razzle-dazzle gets removed, they all look so sad and tired and just, well... mediocre.

    sad trombone sound

    [0] Not sure how more blunt we can make the allusions without breaking our own masks.

    1073:
    In the US and other markets (from which meldonium was quite forcibly barred after USSR dissolution) there's a half-dozen similar medicines used absolutely freely and, most importantly, to the same effect (although it is said there's no direct analogue).

    It's not approved, which is somewhat different from barred. It seems to be approved in Lithuania and Latvia, which also had some doping cases.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meldonium#Approval_status

    Actually it seems availability is the main factor for athletes trying something out. Personally, I'm not sure how effective it is. For comparison, an Italian friend (who is a physician, BTW) described running somewhat faster after taking piractam (no drug, they said, and I laughed inside), I have no idea if piracetam really works for this (or anything), and I have no idea if meldonium is any more effective. Oh, and piracetam is not on any WADA list. Might be if chess goes olympic, but till then it's something overworked academics and geeks try.

    About the unipolar world, it's not that simple; modafinil is also in the WADA list, and it was developed in France and is widely used in the USA. I'm somewhat surprised none of the somewhat more noradrenergic "antidepressants" (the compounds in question not that effective for depression, mainly used for ADHD) like e.g. reboxetine or atomoxetine are used in this regard, BTW.

    Insulin is in the same group as meldonium, as are the PPARγ agonists; the latter are a Western development, and I'm not aware of any doping cases involving them; nor, for that matter, of any literature saying they are effective:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24259440

    (Guess somebody just read "new alternatives to insulin and decided it had to be on the list)

    Funny thing, I haven't found metformin on the list, or any other of the older oral antidiabetics. Trimetazidine, a French drug with a similar indication as meldonium is in the same group, OTOH.

    For what is and isn't on the list, I agree that's likely a political decision, but for different reasons you might think. If athletes started using high doses of ibuprofen or one of the COX-2 inhibitors tomorrow, we would most likely see a discussion about them, maybe even a ban. Regardless of the actual effect.

    And if a drug with a similar effect to a banned agent is developed, expect it to make it to teh list, too. Don't expect some less known agents to show up, OTOH.

    BTW, the fun with Russia in doping might in part stem from the fact your range in pharmaceuticals is quite different from the one in rest of Europe or the US; some psychonauts have noted Italy might be a similar case, and it guess you could say the same for Japan. We're also screening out a lot of the older agents, so there's less of a potential for interesting side effects.

    As for our somewhat curtailed range of pharmaceuticals, I'm not saying this is a good thing, BTW, guanfacine was widely used for hypertension back in the day, and I guess I wouldn't have started quetiapine if it was somewhat more widely available...

    1074:

    As for Trimetazidine, I remember some interest it in my latest stint as a drug dealer, AKA pharmacy supply service. No idea if it was phased out due to lack of efficacy for its indication or the firm the subcontractor I worked for worked for decided they didn't want any hazzle with WADA or like...

    1075:

    Any idea why kiln technology took longer to develop?

    Not a clue. It's one of those things, like Europeans failing to figure out mold-board plows.

    I tripped over the notion of kiln technology being a central issue in Robert Courlands Concrete Planet. While I think his reconstruction of early kiln technology is problematic (he believes that the people who built Gobekli Tepe were using kilns to make the lime found there), I tend to think he's right about kilns, smelters, and similar devices being a fundamental technology that was discovered early in Eurasian history and late in New World history.

    As you note, this isn't to knock New World potters. They figured out all sorts of neat tricks, but the lack of really high temperature kilns forced them to use a different range of materials, and probably precluded them from figuring out how to work iron.

    If I wanted to do a really alt history, I'd start with someone in Mesoamerica figuring out how to build a kiln around 2000-3000 BCE and run it from there.

    1076:

    I mentioned turboprops being considered as possible CAS airframes because no-one is building modern piston-engined combat-capable aircraft with, say, the performance of a P-51D (440 mph) or later DH Mosquito variant (410 mph). Propellor tip speed is not a problem on a smaller airframe (the Tu-95's noise problem is because it's got four sets of giant contra-rotating props which don't actually go supersonic at the tips, it's due to the air shear as the blades pass each other at a supersonic closing speed.)

    Most turboprops like the Super Tucano are used for military and paramilitary operations which are scheduled and planned rather than being responsive operations where a call comes in and fifteen minutes later a couple of planes take off to deliver CAS somewhere distant. Putting forward support airfields close to where CAS is likely to be requested (in Helmand province in Afghanistan, for example) is an invitation for the Bad Guys to attack the airbase instead hence the desire for CAS-capable aircraft to be fast airframes operated from fields well back from the front lines.

    The A-10 was designed to be operated and fly from established airbases in West Germany, the Low Countries and France hence its need for a long good-quality runway (due to its lack of a rugged undercarriage), sophisticated maintenance facilities like the gun-loading machine, the engine positioning on the airframe which is begging to ingest FOD kicked up by the wheels from a graded-surface runway etc. It's not a good CAS aircraft for many reasons but people love the dakka.

    1077:

    kiln technology

    Is there a decent treatment of just what early kiln technology was -- i.e., what were the developments that led to prolonged > 1000 C temperatures? I've done a quick check and haven't found much. Perhaps it had to do with improved draft arrangements?

    And, now that the subject has come up, what was the chain of motivation that led from 800 C to 1300 C? Cooking doesn't require either, not by a long shot, and neither does hardening wood or making adequate if not great ceramics. Did someone say "Wow, if we can make the fire hotter we can do X"? Or was it just an aleatory process in which accidentally hotter fires produced slightly better ceramics or whatever and people noticed?

    1078:

    I have no idea what caused the Bronze Age collapse, I was postulating that the collapse accelerated iron adoption not that iron adoption caused it

    With regards to the Spainish conquest of Aztec and Incas (and it’s probsbly a mistake to continue to combine them, they were pretty different) there were multiple factors that all played a role. It’s a mistake to grab ahold of any one of these and make it the sole deciding factor (unless possible you do that with the introduction of disease)

    For the Aztec conquest at least

    Militarily the spainish were far far more powerful then their numbers suggest, both due to technologically superior weapons but also the tactics and military doctrine they employeed and the experience they had gained in the Reconquesta

    A pretty good book on that here

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/3317246?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents

    Diplomacy played a huge role, as did exploiting the Aztec religion, however without the demonstrable military and technological advantages it would be unlikely that diplomacy would have been as effective

    Cannons matter. Gunpowder weapons matter. Calvary matter. A thousand year advantage on infantry tactics matter. There were several battles where the spainish flat out wipped ten times their numbers

    Example here

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Otumba

    1491 tends to really downplay that, as it does most examples of European technological superiority, and overplays the diplomacy aspect. This isn’t surprising since the author wasn’t any kind of of expert in military history

    1079:

    Err, it is working, if you mean "get to your appointments, remember to answer friends and do the homework". At least I think so.

    Problem is

    a) I'm going through one of my usual "Do I really have ADHD?" phases, especially since at least some of my, err, avatars are quite different from the usual picture of somebody afflicted. For example, some friends compared me to Sheldon Cooper (OK, come to think about it, not that different from the usual picture...). And the child psychologist I visited when 14 gave up on speaking the questions of the IQ test after I asked him to repeat for the fourth time, said I scored somewhat north of 98% of the rest of the population (e.g. above 130) and concluded by saying he never met a child as normal and well-behaved as me. And I had a lousy short-term memory. And I might try distance education. Err. OK, not that different from the usual picture in some areas, still...

    b) I'm somewhat wondering if MPh is really necessary at this point. In retrospect, when starting medication I was in somewhat stressful situations, my symptoms are worse when plasma level is going down, but seem to improve somewhat when off, so I'm not sure it might be better to totally go off medication or try some somewhat less effective medication working all day, like e.g. bupropion (I've somewhat ruled out atomoxetine for urological reasons). Problem is, said stressful situations started when I stopped smoking in 1999, so going off meds is likely not the smart option at the moment.

    c) Another thing is I got into contact with an old friend again whom I somewhat ironically pseudonymized after a Laundry character[1]. Back in the day, a friend (she of the New Model Army collection and the Neil Gaiman collection) thought her megalomaniac for thinking herself the most confused person on the planet, to which I added said friend had gotten over it, she thought I might be more confused. Oh, and it seems our friends had a habit of mentioning us as "quite intelligent(but somewhat confused)" with other peoples, err...

    For a description, another thing she of the NMA collection said first of you think her quite confused, then you realize she is quite intelligent, then you realize she is quite nice (with stage 2 and 3 sometimes reversed), followed by "the love of my life" in quite a few male (and likely female) of the species. After one email exchange with a girl (now woman) from school about a class reunion I'm asking myself if I might be somewhat similar in this regard, too (It's somewhat strange when you write to her about your stress and your IBS, and a woman you didn't interact with much in school concludes it's because you're secretly in love with her. Err.[2])

    The old friend and I haven't met in RL yet, she seems to have fallen out with shared friends[3], she was not that good with self-observation[4], and I guess she doesn't mention everything[5]. But she seems to get on quite well without medication, though come to think about it, it might be one of our "start 100 projects and bring to end 1 or 2" phases.

    Still, I'm somewhat wondering if she would really benefit from medication at this point, and, by extension, what about me.

    Sorry for going into detail, I have lost contact with most people involved myself in the last few years, I've decided me thinking my parents nuts at 20 was not that far off the mark, and writing pseudonymous is quite nice. My new neurologist said a concomitant therapy might be in order, but lately I have come to the conclusion people have problems with categorizing me; I guess it was somewhat after some hippiepunks thought me an old acquaintance from their squatter days and the local Vietnamese asked me how long I had been a Buddhist, err. So it might take some time for a therapist to get to know me, my friends and my family[6].

    Might be interesting though, my last therapist likened me and said old friend to Kurt and Courtney (it was early in his and my sessions and shortly after she and I broke contact, and mind you, she and I thought Nirvana "sins of our youth best forgotten"). Maybe the next one will mention Sheldon and Amy, the association came up when she mentioned her projects. Err. Guess I'll wait till things calm down somewhat...

    As for alternate medications, I'm thinking about trying out bupropion in the long run due to the longer plasma half time and the active metabolites; maybe I'll try clonidine for sleep and against my hypertension. We'll have to make some adjustments, switching from immediate release to extended release MPh was somewhat difficult (at the moment I'm on a higher daily dosage for a shorter period of effect), and I missed my antihypertensives for a few days; the calcium channel blocker and the ACE inhibitor have a long plasma half life, but the diuretic was long gone, BP was still 130/80. I lost 10kg due to a severe depression last spring and kept going, guess that's one result. So I might be able to decrease my HCT dosage.

    Guanfacine seemed interesting at some point, problem is it's a 5-HT2b agonist,

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2769050/

    which is OK for short term use (a psilocybin or 2C-B trip from time to time won't make for problems with your valves, I guess), but for daily medication I'd like to stay clear of them.

    So, that's about all, Except, oh, to top it all off, I actually hate the Big Bang Theory. Actual physicists like Heavy Metal.

    And remembering another friend from my time with alternative civilian service who never got me blotter but invited me to try speed(I declined) really makes me laugh inside, but my really strange interactions with German drug culture(s) are another issue.

    [1] As said, somewhat ironically; she's somewhat amnestic for the time we interacted, so I had to explain to her we shouted at a lot of people, but never each other. Even when she said it'd be foolish to fall in love at that point and I agreed.

    [2] I returned the courtesy by sending her some new lines for "Where next Columbus?" by Crass. About Rudolf Steiner. If you'rs asking, yes, the woman in question is an anthroposophist. You see, when you met your first girlfriend a few days after your 18th birthday when reading HPL's Dreamquest in the library, and she was interested in buddhism and a squatter, you really start to wonder what subculture you are. And I guess my text was still quite polite for a "Fuck yourself!" I also decided people might be sexually attracted to me after all, to which one of my somewhat snarkier submodules replied "says he who had a stalker in the first semester".

    [3] We both have a habit of zoning out from old circles of friends and into new ones, somewhat similar to Borderline Personality Disorder, but without being angry at the old friends; somewhat typical of ADHD, though you could also compare it to a fugue state.

    [4] Again, similar to me.

    [5] Neither do I; but I guess "BTW, after our first emails I got out of my depression and actually I still have feelings for you" is not a smart thing to write; at least she seems to be in a stable relationship. Damn, and I always wondered why I pictured myself in the circle of hell reserved for those "driven by passion" in Dante's Inferno...

    [6] I guess him wanting to keep my case after that might be another matter...

    1080:

    Yes.

    Updraft Kilns were around in China and other places circa 2,000 BC, temp 1,000oC (Buried types). And... (we're being really mean here), Dragon Kilns took that up to ~1200 - 1400 oC by 1,600 BC.

    Kicker: what do you need for a really good Dragon Kiln? A damn nice slope, like you find in mountains.

    Essentially what drove it (China and Rome) was mass-production: getting X thousand uniform pots in the most efficient way. But, here's the kicker (read the paper just cited): the Incas mass produced pottery as well on an industrial scale. Mantou kilns appear @ around 475 BC, (they very much lead to industrial age kilns) but this required coal (~950BC) to replace charcoal as fuel.

    Anyhow, here's a real answer, and it's all about water:

    This study tries to understand them and the question was asked: did Inca builders have access to very acid mud? They did, and used the acid mud from their mines, which generated sulphuric acid through bacterial oxidation of pyrite (fools gold). It reaches an acidity of up to pH = 0.5, which is 104 times more acid than humic acid which is known to weather silica containing rocks via silica gel to the clay mineral kaolin. This acid mud allowed dissolving and softening the rock material superficially to a viscoelastic silica gel. The process could be further enhanced more than tenfold by addition of (oxalic acid containing) plant sap, a skill suggested from popular tradition. In special cases moderate heating of crushed pyrite in gaps between chiselled stones generated additional hot sulphuric acid. Where the stone to stone contact transmitted weight, pressure dissolution in the acidic environment removed material, and silica precipitation regenerated material in cracks and pores elsewhere. It is attempted to reconstruct how the Inca builders applied the silica gel technology for shaping stones, for polishing and fitting them. The appearance of shiny and glassy Inca stone junctions and interfaces is explained via solidification of in-situ generated or additionally added silica gel. Modern processes for conservation of stone monuments against environmental deterioration have independently developed similar silica gel based technology...

    Most of the mines were deposits of sulphides or associated with sulphides. Inca miners could well distinguish between gold and pyrite (fools gold). But they did not know or use metallic iron (Keatinge, 1988). Mining was a government activity and ordinary people had to offer their work as part of their tribute obligation. They were organized for work in mines in a similar way as for constructing masonry for sacral or administrative buildings. So it could happen that workers with mining experience ended up building masonry. This way the notion of the corroding effect of mine water on stones could have reached the construction sites for Inca buildings. While gold and silver was mainly used for representation and rituals, bronze, the alloy of copper and tin became increasingly important for tools and weapons. In addition copper was also alloyed with gold. This way the mining technology for copper gained more and more strategic relevance, so that numerous sulphide mines were operating in the vast Inca dominated territory. And sulphide mines produced acid mine water, especially when sulphur rich minerals (e.g. pyrite) were present. The process is basically activated by autotrophic, acidophyllic, sulphide oxidizing bacteria, which are gaining their energy from sulphide oxidation and are typically present in mine environments...

    Garcilaso de la Vega, while describing the reddish clay, also confirms that “molten lead and silver and gold were poured in for mortar”. Acid pyrite mud from mines may typically contain additional sulphide minerals (e.g. besides of pyrite (FeS2, golden) also Marcasite (FeS2, tin-white to bronze-yellow), Molybdenite (MoS2, lead-silvery-grey), Covellite (CuS, blue), Bornite (Cu5FeS4, copper red to purple)). From occasionally seeing such diverse crystals in the applied reddish mud it may have been concluded that molten lead, silver and gold is poured between the stone blocks.

    On the reddish, glittery mud the Inca used for perfecting their stone masonry SDRP Journal of Earth Sciences & Environmental Studies, 2017, html, legal.

    Worth a read, esp. about how advanced their stone, masonry and jewelry etching was.

    Mining for Incas (and others in the region) was primarily about water and/or chemistry based in liquid forms, not fire - they valued the gold / stone working aspects and copper / tin etc were already alloyed with gold anyhow in the processes.

    TL;DR

    All those "NOT SAYING IT WAS ALIENS, BUT ALIENS" TV shows that wonder / marvel at just how 'Anicient Primitive Civilizations' could 'possibly' create 'so perfect' fitting masonry.

    Er. They used chemistry, not brute force or Iron tools.And with that, a billionaire cried out as his TV revenues died forever.

    This is actually true, and fucking hilarious if you've ever experienced USA TV or Conspiracy Theorists.

    ~

    Yes, We did just solve ~89,500 hours of pointless TV shows by finding you the correct Science Theory in under 5 mins.

    Y'all not good at this reality thing.

    1081:

    I’m waaaaay to brain fried right now to even try to untangle any hints or pointers: Have you mentioned Amesbury recently?

    1082:

    Oh, and:

    a) look @ what ATF is, chemically speaking

    b) clay firing is all about water / slurries etc pre-porcelain slip casting methods

    c) Celadon : China did this first

    d) Americas pottery apparently never used glazes until post-invasion

    At this point we have to stop and ask: y'all didn't know this until 2017?

    Whelp, that's a bit embarressing. Took us 25 mins to work out.

    1083:

    I haven't tried out any nutritional supplements lately, though I'm trying to keep a healthy diet with some fish. Back in the day my parents tried omega-3, I guess, effects were minimal at best.

    I also haven't tried any special memory trainings lately; we tried match pair memory games in my childhood (seems like my memory problems have been around for some time g) lately I've realized playing RTS games (Starcraft...) against humans is a nice exercise for executive functions and filtering content.

    My neurologist mentioned biofeedback, and I have been thinking about neurofeedback myself, if only to see my EEG[1]. I haven't looked into it though, and at the moment I'm trying something best described as "controlled exarberation of symptoms" for some personal reasons (first approximation: I have become too docile in the last 12 years; it's more complicated, I'have always been quite well behaved and will continue to be, so it's likely constrained to some areas, so next approximation...)

    An old friend and I both got psychomotor education,

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychomotor_education

    she and I both being something of a clutz indicates it might not have been that successful.

    As mentioned, the methylphenidate works, at the moment it's just my personal submodule versions of the auditors showing up.

    As for other things that worked...

    I experimented with sleep deprivation in my last two years in school (or USians: high school), me having somewhat fragmented memories of this periods might indicate that's not that good an idea.

    Having a lot of projects to do and keeping yourself occupied also helped, problem is

    a) I didn't finisch a lot of said projects, leading to frustration and b) hello burnout

    Sleeping enough (I'm somewhat north of the 6 hours usual for my age, with at least 8 hours), keeping some quiet time for your preconscious submodules to work things out (you can listen to music while doing so) and keeping an active social life(even if it's mainly online as in my case) might help.

    I'm also trying to minimize internat turmoild by being quite clear at the spot, even if my contradict myself in the process.

    I haven't been able to try out meditation, but it's likely going to happen.

    At the moment I'm trying to keep my internal clock with the sun, e.g. go to bed when it's dark, wake up when the sun rises. Seems to work.

    [1] Not that the guy I met at one hack party was any recommendation, I guess him using it to curb sleeping time showed. Funny I slept about 4 hours a day in my last two years at school.

    1084:

    Amesbury?

    Hobson said he visited Rowley[0]’s home in Muggleston Road, Amesbury, on Saturday morning. Sturgess, who lives in Salisbury, had spent the night there. “I saw lots of ambulances and Dawn got taken out on a stretcher. She needed to be helped with her breathing,” Hobson said. Rowley came out in tears. “They said she needed to have a brain scan[1].”

    Police fear Wiltshire couple have been exposed to nerve agent Guardian 4th July 2018

    You'll want to find the (probably now deleted) picture of a GIANT FUCKING RED HGV LORRY[2] with 'Fire Services' painted all over its side with the wrong heraldry on the decals. HINT: UK FIRE SERVICES DO NOT USE GIANT HGVs AS BACK-UP VEHICLES. HINT, HINT: 10+ VEHICLE INSTANT DISPATCH + DUBIOUS NON-LOCAL ASSETS =/= DRUG USE[1]? HOME =/= CHURCH FOR TWO PEOPLE BEING FOUND SOMEWHAT DEAD-ISH.

    Danger, Danger Will Robinson

    Edit:

    Nope, nothing odd about that one. Ever. At all. Subtle as a brick.

    [0] Check what -ing does in English and what it does to words in Russian. Eh?

    [1] THIS IS NOT HOW IT WORKS: ANY EMT WILL TELL YOU THAT THEY ARE NOT QUALIFIED TO ADVISE ON CT/MRI SCANS - THIS HAPPENS @ HOSPITAL, 100%.

    [2] The deleted picture has lorry @ 45o angle left to right (right being cab), close shot without many far details but enough. No link 'cause they're scrubbing and don't want to give away few remaining sources.

    [3] At urging of Minneapolis police, Hennepin EMS workers subdued dozens with a powerful sedative Startribune, 15th June, 2018 - you'll want the related pieces about how those injected without their consent woke up to find they'd already signed 'medical test' waivers, or, even better yet, look up .RU protests where distraught mothers get zapped in the same manner. No, really, go find those videos already. OH, AND ALSO CHECK OUT THOSE SCHOOL SHOOTERS WHO GET ZAPPED REAL FUCKING QUICK USING THE SAME METHOD AND GET ZOMBIED.

    1085:

    Maybe a little bit more complicated than yes.

    From reading the experimental archaeologists fiddling around recreating forging technology, the normal complaint is "expletive setup isn't hot enough, it doesn't fully melt [whatever]." I'd guess that the quest for a hotter fire wasn't due to any foreknowledge about what they could do with it, it was in a quest to get a more predictable melt from whatever they were working with. Once they achieved a hotter fire, I'm quite sure (and I think that the archaeology supports this) that some bright bulb would throw a pot of ore in the fire, just to see what it melted into. There was probably also a lot of fiddling, once they noticed that clay also melted and fused when it got hot enough.

    The flip side of this is what you get if you ever watch the American History Channel series "Forged In Fire." It's a reality TV series around weapons' forging that's fun to watch if you're into that sort of thing. Every once in a while, they decide to torture their contestants by challenging them to make a knife in four hours using a coal forge, rather than a gas-powered system. It's a nightmare for the smiths, and they go through a lot of coal. Charcoal's a lot less energy dense than good coal, so you have to realize that old smiths had to go through a LOT of charcoal to make all that metal. That, in itself, probably hindered experiments in ironmaking, simply because charcoal is tedious to make too.

    1086:

    Plx read links.

    Celadon glaze came about 'cause Dragon Kilns don't have equal temps across the entire thing, so they needed ways to cook long enough so all = fired but not hottest = crack / crumble. Please read the damn links, they're not there for fun.

    Anyhow, Nope Nope Nope Nope.

    Amesbury is entirely a usual and domestic incident that is in no way strange and does not included the forceful subjugation of a [redacted] pairing at all. There is nothing unusual about the situation and the fact that biochem suits were not deployed in no way should suggest to you that this is not absolutely 100% connected to prior incidents and not something a lot lot lot more scary.

    Situation Normal, Everything's Fine Now YT, Film, Star Wars

    1087:

    Secondly, I was also mentioning non-medical terms of cheating, which involve everything from polemics to direct falsification. Everything that human does and everything that surrounds him is affecting his performance, and thus determines the outcome of competition.

    Such as the famous incident in the 1976 Olympics, where a Soviet pentathlete (Boris Onischenko) was found to have modified their epee so that they could score hits during the fencing, without touching their opponent?

    I'm not a big fan of sport and not a even close, but something tells me that there's a lot of things besides health (and even ominous presence) that is important in such situation. It may be jet-lag, or living conditions, or pacing of the events, or food and drinks, air, weather...

    These things are available to all participants; and do not give an unfair advantage to one more than another.

    For instance, heat and humidity are predictable, and a certain degree of acclimation is possible. In preparation for the 1998 Commonwealth Games in Kuala Lumpur, we spent time in a heat chamber, verifying that our competition clothing was suitable for 32C / 100% RH. We then spent the year beforehand preparing for those conditions - training to drink during competition, discovering which of the rehydration drinks we preferred, and in my case attending a sports medicine symposium on hot/humid competition (e.g. one of the lectures was by the Scottish team doctor from the 1986 FIFA World Cup in Mexico, explaining the environmental impact and commonplace injuries - mostly sweat, chafing, and blisters, as it turned out).

    Like "arrive at the competition venue early enough to get over any jetlag", it's not "cheating", it's normal and thorough preparation that is available to all athletes and nations equally. The Soviet Union, and Russia, have always had excellent sports science and sports medicine support; but so have other countries.

    ...and especially psychology, ruling and judgement. Everything can be used for that influence, but to a different degree.

    I find "performance psychology" fascinating (not least because of the number of shysters involved). Good psychs are awesome, bad ones are useless or damaging.

    Again, training in this is available to all, equally. The coach or the psychologist are restricted from what they are allowed to do during competition, so that the athlete operates largely on their own (less shouting from the coach, in some sports - see judo, boxing, football).

    1088:

    Yes and no. Allen's idea had the causality backward, with the notion that potters and smiths chased hotter fires because they knew what they would get if they could make things hotter. I flipped the logic, because it's obvious that people knew when they needed to make things hotter, but they didn't know what they would also get at high temperatures. The great thing about pottery kilns is that they're scalable, so once you figure out that celadon's both possible and desirable, you can make bigger kilns to make more of the stuff.

    Scaling up in size is a bit of a different innovation from heating up in temperature. Both are important though.

    1089:

    I haven't tried out any nutritional supplements lately, though I'm trying to keep a healthy diet with some fish. Dunno. Fish is probably good. I just said DHA because it is associated with brain development, etc. (choline similar.) e.g. raising an 8 week old male kitten ATM; the cat food lists DHA as an ingredient. (Cat Cognitive support diets :-) There's a lot of nonsense and product shilling and neuro-hacker-woo out there (sample size of 1 means statistical shortcuts :-), so look at things like this (and reddit threads) with a very skeptical eye, e.g. for every reference look for refutations/failed replications: https://nootropicsexpert.com/best-nootropics-for-adhd-add/

    I also haven't tried any special memory trainings lately; ... I'm a fan (dilettante at best) of psychometrics[0], and some of the adaptive trainers (particularly those associated with or emulating software described in the experimental literature[1]) will give you a rough idea of your current performance (e.g. of the day). Focusing on things that are said/known to deteriorate with age, notably speed and and certain (other) aspects of executive function can be quite helpful in my experience, even according to some of the literature. With the more complex games, and even with simpler games, there is limited evidence of far transfer(see the ADHD section), and there are of course plenty of naysaying papers. Keep it simple, unless you find evidence otherwise. (If you do n-back training, focus on speed IMO, at least initially. Others may have other opinions.) [0] Linked years ago: Clocking the Mind: Mental Chronometry and Individual Differences (a search will find a probably illegal pdf) [1] https://secure.brainhq.com - associated with Posit Science, used to have a decent free tier (need to feed it an email addr) but it's a bit nerfed now, and they nerfed many of the speed drills a bit. (The free Target Tracker is fun.) There are others; pick one from the academic literature if possible.

    1090:

    Via Slate Star Codex and a couple of historians, I would add Christianity, a sociological advantage the Spanish had. A major reason why other locals were so enthusiastic in joining with the Spanish was the Aztec enthusiasm for industrial scale human sacrifice.

    I'm not saying that the locals were instant converts or anything like that, but the Spanish were offering a future where it wasn't actually necessary to rip the hearts out of living human beings to keep the sun rising.

    1091:

    The real problem as I see it is that direct democracy breaks down once you exceed Dunbar's Number of people (100-200 — think primate troupe/human tribe), and representative democracy breaks down once you pass roughly 2-10 million people, depending on ratio of constituents to legislators and how the system works.

    (Please don't let this distract you.) "Have you considered increasing Dunbar's Number?" :-) (Surely you have, I just like the line.) I.e, people have been musing about increasing Dunbar's Number for a while; here's an early (2002) effort that still reads well though it doesn't reference Dunbar's Number: Adrian Scott. It's exo-brain-tech heavy; augmenting long term and working memory somehow, and perhaps also increasing human lifespan are another complementary approach. (Shaper/Mechanists) These might get us an order of magnitude, perhaps two (Dunbar's number :-), so the problem remains but is not as bad, and we still can have heterogeneity/variation. (And almost certainly improved deception/masking skills, alas.)

    1092:

    It sounds like a good idea, and I don't think it isn't, but I do wonder how much difference it would make. It would still be a lot smaller than the numbers in which humans physically aggregate, and I don't think the reasons those aggregations aren't very good at becoming (collections of multiple overlapping) communities have all that much to do with Dunbar's number.

    The number we would see an important improvement from increasing is the Stross number, the 2 to 10 million representative democracy breakdown limit.

    1093:

    The weird thing about Dunbar's Number is that it's not an absolute. The really neat counter-example is the The Rainbow Family Gathering which put hundreds to tens of thousands together in an area for a month as a reasonably functioning anarchy. It's not permanent (obviously), but there's something about the fission-fusion nature of the gatherings that some people make a living going from gathering to gathering.

    The point here is that Dunbar isn't an absolute barrier--you can cram 400 people onto an island for a week and they won't all kill each other over night. However, Dunbar's Number may be critical for packing large numbers of people into small areas of fixed land for extended periods of time. The exceptions are what make it interesting.

    1094:

    "Wrought iron is MUCH more corrosion-resistant than almost all steels, but it's also softer than bronze. And, while the process you are describing doesn't require much chemistry, it's complex and needs a fairly large industrial base."

    I'm a practicing blacksmith/knifemaker/archeaometallurgist, and I've smelted my own iron and steel, and alloyed bronze. While wrought iron does does have a lot of silicate slag that does help keep corrosion down, to say it is much more corrosion resistant than (and I"m assuming you're excluding all stainless and semi-stainless and high-alloy steels) steel is a bit of an exaggeration as it does rust quite readily. And while some bronze is harder than wrought, not all is, and it is a lot more brittle when it is that hard.

    As for needing an fairly large industrial base to make wrought from ore, charcoal, and limestone, I have to seriously disagree. I have made wrought quite easily using local ore, homemade charcoal, and limestone from the back yard using nothing more than hand/foot power, with about a 70% conversion rate from ore to iron (the rest ends up as slag, which gets reused in the next smelt as a flux). Yes, it's hard to do, takes practice, and if you don't get things right you end up with drips and drabs of iron instead of a nice bloom, but it's quite doable without a large industrial base if you are making a few pounds at a time or are experimenting with the process.

    As for complex, well, first you build a smelter, which is your basic clay-and-manure tube, a tuyere which is another clay tube, and a bellows of some sort, usually a couple of goat skin bags pegged to the ground and strapped to your feet that are hooked up to the tuyere. Light the fire, add charcoal and pump until it hits operating temps, then start adding the charges of limestone, charcoal, and ore. Swap in other stompers as they get tired and you should end up with iron. I have done this extremely primitive method once as part of a group, and probably never will again -- but I have a 1.5kg lump of iron bloom made the hard way that I treasure.

    Usually I use an electric blower, commerical charcoal, and pre-processed ore when I'm feeling smelty, but the process is the same. To say that to make it on a large scale requires a large industrial base is pointless -- everything done on a large enough scale requires such a base. For the vast majority of the history of ironmaking, it was done on a small scale by a smith, his apprentices, and maybe a few of the neighbors to take turns on the bellows.

    1095:

    Thanks!

    I think the point of scale in traditional blacksmithing, though, is that you're not building skyscrapers using iron smelted by blacksmiths, you're making tools that would be used to build wood or stone buildings.

    One question, since I've seen different numbers: how does the fuel demand for making bronze compare with the fuel for smelting iron? I'd gotten the sense that it was less, but it would be nice to have some practical input.

    1096:

    I have made wrought quite easily using local ore, homemade charcoal, and limestone from the back yard using nothing more than hand/foot power, with about a 70% conversion rate from ore to iron (the rest ends up as slag, which gets reused in the next smelt as a flux) Thank you for that; very interesting. Back to the North/Central/South American tech questions, is there evidence that native Americans had charcoal-making tech prior to the European invasion? [0] It looks to me like it was incrementally improved over time in Europe and land-connected areas. Hard to judge but it doesn't seem particularly obvious to me. Neither does smelting for that matter. i.e. how much of this was just rare bright outlier early tech people inventing tech or discovering major improvements to it?

    [0] terra preta (talked about a lot in the archives) seems unrelated.

    1097:

    The number we would see an important improvement from increasing is the Stross number, the 2 to 10 million representative democracy breakdown limit. Which is the cube of Dunbar's number. :-) (Why, I have no clue.)

    There's also this, just spotted. (Pretty charts, refs, not seeing a lot of substance but am too tired to read. And yeah, Facebook is evil. :-): Benford’s Law and Dunbar’s Number: Does Facebook Have a Power to Change Natural and Anthropological Laws? (13 February, 2018) We find that Facebook’s features are aligned with the Benford’s Law but redefine the way how Dunbar’s Number is calculated ... Second, this paper confirms Wellman’s theory that people who regularly use Facebook change the limits defined by the Dunbar’s Number. While Dunbar limited the number of close friends to 5 and friends to 15, we have found that Facebook users have on average 8 close friends and 20 friends.

    1098:

    I haven't read all the way through, but here are my thoughts on the Aztecs.

    When comparing Eurasia with the Americas, you're missing the impact that a lack of many domesticated animals had

  • No dangerous nomadic barbarians. Eurasian civilizations had to constantly defend against people on horseback. That tended to depopulate a city whenever the barbarians became successful. I wonder if perhaps iron gave the inhabitants an advantage over the nomads which Bronze did not?

  • No domestication meant no plague diseases. This created a higher population density in the region. Perhaps that played some role in the delay of metallurgy.

  • Here's a point about the Aztecs: The Aztecs were the exception. This needs to be emphasized. To give a comparison, this would be like an archaeologists saying that the Ancient Egyptians, Greeks, Carthaginians, etc. had mass gladiatorial games simply because Rome did. Actually, it's more like saying Ancient India and China had mass gladiatorial games because Rome did.

    A final point about the Spanish. Unlike the British or the Dutch colonies (and like the French ones), the ethnic groups which commanded the empires still exist in large numbers, and in some cases form the majority population of their nations. I think the jury is still out on which European nation has been the most brutal in the Americas.

    1099:

    In the study of electoral systems there's a Cube Root Law - that the size of the parliament has to balance out MP-constituent relationships and MP-MP relationships and the correct size is for the number of parliamentarians to be about the cube root of the overall population.

    So perhaps the breakdown is achieved once the size of Parliament starts to exceed Dunbar's number?

    Article here: https://fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2014/01/07/economix-expand-the-us-house/

    1100:

    So perhaps the breakdown is achieved once the size of Parliament starts to exceed Dunbar's number? OK, so to finish the thought, increases in Dunbar's Number (at least for the MPs themselves) would allow the viable governed population size to increase to the cube of the increased Dunbar's Number?

    1101:

    Troutwaxer @ 1065 You should have heard a rabid breixiteer doing a loud & furious Gish Gallop during “Today” this AM. Rubbishing Jag/Land-Rover’s warnings & proclaiming how it was going to be wonderful. Entirely fact-free, of course.

    Heteromeles & 1075 ( & others ) Kiln technology, yes. HERE is a very good read on the subject, showing how the “step up” to European ( I.e. Meissen/Dresden ) was achieved – not easy. IMHO, there is something even better than Porcelain, invented in deliberate competition to boost local industry - Bone China beautiful stuff … light, translucent & surprisingly resilient.

    MEANWHILE ( Also: DtP @ 1081, O-Y @ 1084 too ) What do people make of THIS load of shite? It’s certainly very worrying – the upcoming suggestion seems to be that the Ru agents ( OR whoever it was ) simply dumped their excess Novichock & this couple “touched” it / picked it up etc … Uh?

    1102:

    Greg, those links aren't working.

    1104:

    "archeaometallurgist" Oh, fun. What region and era do you specialize in? As for the Cynic's comment, perhaps they were thinking more of the tendency of the copper and tin oxides to form a weak passification layer? Not sure what grades they're thinking of for the exposed relative hardness though.

    1105:

    Thank you for the correction, but I think that we were slightly at cross-purposes, because I wasn't clear. I wasn't talking about even ancient Roman levels of industrial base, but the difference between a few people and an organised, technical, community. You are describing quite a few technologies there which, originally, would have needed developing - and at least charcoal-burning isn't really critical for anything else I can think of. You may be omnicompetent, but generally most workers did only one or two tasks.

    Anway, let's skip the development. You are a real expert, so may I pick your brains? How many full-time workers would you estimate is needed to produce (say) 5 pounds a week, including mining and transporting the ore and limestone, cutting the wood and burning the charcoal, and building, maintaining and operating the smeltering and blacksmithing equipment? The general rule is to then multiply that number by ten, to allow for the people feeding, housing and clothing them.

    On the matter of resistance to corrosion, you are quite right that I am talking about the 'ordinary' steels, but I stand by my point. Wrought iron rusts in a different way from most steels, and usually does so more slowly and with less risk of failure (i.e. in layers, not pits). There are lots of wrecked ships in British estuaries between the tide marks, and the wrought-iron ones are showing all signs of outlasting steel ones a fraction of their age. Similarly, both in the soil and in buildings (remember: the UK has nightly condensing atmospheres), wrought iron nails outlast comparable steel ones by a large factor (at a guess, 5 or more).

    1106:

    Yes, a work of art :-)

    On the matter of porcelain, thanks for pointing out my cultural blindness (#1105) - I was completely forgetting about China when I said that charcoal isn't critically needed for anything I can think of except ironworking. The dates being what they are, it seems unlikely that iron smelters were derived from porcelain kilns, though.

    1107:

    Interesting. That does seem to be a report on which one can place some credence.

    1108:

    They used different furnaces, for sure:

    The 2005 campaign identified one heap of slag of considerable dimensions, ~2 m high and over 5 m long (Figure 3.3). Close to the slag heaps were identified several larger rounded structures associated, one of which was excavated revealing that these were porcelain kilns not associated to the metallurgical production... Also it needs to be considered that three different pyrotechnical industries –copper smelting, bloomery iron and porcelain –took place in the same area but the space delimitation per industry is not defined<./em>

    Copper and bloomery iron smelting in Central China: Technological traditions in the Daye County (Hubei) David Larreina-García, UCL, 2017 PHD Thesis, PDF - WARNING LONG: 381 pages.

    Has lots (!LOTS!) of excellent piccies and full explanation of early period iron / steel production in China.

    TL;DR

    Tech was more advanced than Europe by some 1,000 years - quality of product more brittle, but they used it for much different things than the Europeans. Also, casting was method rather than hand-crafting (blacksmith).

    Anyhow for Davidcshipley, here's what Boris Johnson looked like today:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DhQ8WajW4AEhAss.jpg

    Someone's having a mare of a week.

    1109:

    Oh, and to poke Hetero (from same source): p283-4

    Extensive use of coal as a substitute of charcoal happened in China during the Song Dynasty (~AD 1100) when deforestation became a serious problem to make charcoal (Needham 1958; Hartwell 1967; Wagner 1996, 317; Golas 1999, 195). Metallographic studies of iron artifacts confirm the use of coal for iron smelting since coal leaves many sulphur impurities (Liu, S. 2015, 321, and literature therein). Coal for other metal productions –copper and zinc – is also documented after the Song Dynasty (Cao 2012, 80; Zhou, W. et al. 2014).

    This, however, does not mean that charcoal ceased to be used. As matter of fact, ‘coal was rarely used in blast furnaces in Sichuan’ (Wagner 2008, 26)to avoid the sulphur contamination, and it has been pointed that the use of coal is a geographic circumstance related to deforestation. Thus, in North China, heavily deforested, coal was the main fuel whereas the forest resources of South China allowed making charcoal and the use of coal was much limited (Golas 1999, 196; Wright 2007). Thus,the use of charcoal in Daye during the late Qing Dynasty is not surprising since this was more desirable than coal or coke in terms of contaminants, and was still the main fuel in some regions of China (Craddock et al. 2003, 46; Wagner 2008, 331-334; Cao 2012, 96). One disadvantage of the charcoal, however, was the high cost: for base metals Cu and Fe in 17th-18thcenturies China, charcoal was more costly than the ore (Cao 2012, 91; Liu, S. 2015, 233), and firewood is needed for roasting too, thus adding to the expense

    I will leave it up to Hetero to prove conclusively that the Incan Empire did not suffer from similar shortages.

    1110:

    Ah, forgot: Celadon (glaze): 1,260 °C (2,300 °F) furnace temperature, a preferred range of 1,285 to 1,305 °C, Dragon Kiln top range: 1400 °C. So, basically, perfect design for the job.

    Why that PHD was sourced:

    China has long been considered the exception to the general use of bloomeries. It was thought that the Chinese skipped the bloomery process completely, starting with the blast furnace and the finery forge to produce wrought iron: by the 5th century BC, metalworkers in the southern state of Wu had invented the blast furnace and the means to both cast iron and to decarburize the carbon-rich pig iron produced in a blast furnace to a low-carbon, wrought iron-like material. Recent evidence, however, shows that bloomeries were used earlier in China, migrating in from the west as early as 800 BC, before being supplanted by the locally developed blast furnace.

    You can look through the PHD with reference to why he's interested in bloomery in particular rather than the much better known blast types. Bloomery we know the Americas had: A Millennium of Metallurgy Recorded by Lake Sediments from Morococha, Peruvian Andes Environ. Sci. Technol.2007, PDF, legal which shows that the Wari Empire (precursor to Incan) was smelting silver / copper around 1,000 AD quite extensively. Er, also chosen because of this:

    Wari Empire, and are attributed to the Wanka cultural phases(1000-1450 A.D)

    Since we were looking over Boris Johnson's plight at the same time and the Weave got a little confused with what we wanted from it.

    ALSO to tie in, Celadon is a form of iron oxide (HELLO ATF) which makes the entire thing even stranger - you'd imagine that those iron oxides mined for pigments (see earlier post) would at some point have been hit by high temperatures and accidentally glazed.

    So... it's still a mystery.

    1111:

    the Aztec enthusiasm for industrial scale human sacrifice

    As it happens, the cover story on a recent issue of Science was on that very topic:

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/06/feeding-gods-hundreds-skulls-reveal-massive-scale-human-sacrifice-aztec-capital

    I learned a new word there - tzompantli.

    1112:

    It depends entirely on the location. In England, you can produce 1-3 tons of charcoal per hectare per annum from coppiced supplies, using only primitive kilns.

    1113:

    re: charcoal in the Andes: I'm not going to prove or disprove it. The point was that you can't speculate about the presence or absence of wood based on elevation or latitude alone. If you don't believe me, look at pictures of Machu Picchu.

    To answer the earlier question (and again I'm not a smith), so far as I know, you need charcoal to make a hot enough controlled fire to work with any metal other than gold, although there's also pretty much a requirement for a forced draft. Yes, wildfires can melt metal, but they aren't controlled.

    That alone would suggest that by the time of the Wari, the Andeans had figured out how to make charcoal.

    There's also the issue of woodland management. I don't know how it worked in China or the Andes, but in England, there's some nice historical ecological work about how woodlands (lands that produced wood, literally) were managed in medieval times. Since wood was needed for everything from fires to carpentry material, woodlands were owned by villages and guilds, and coppiced on rotation (look up coppicing if you don't already know what it is) to provide enough fuel. So, for instance, the glassmakers in one city were documented as owning a woodland that produced the charcoal that they needed for their furnaces. I'll bet areas with foundries owned woodlands too.

    Unfortunately, sustainable woodland management has a couple of little problems. One is that the output of wood isn't perfectly predictable, due to weather and such. This is rarely a problem for the village or a small-scale industry, but it is a problem for the tax man and the local nobility, who have supply chain issues. A second problem is that woodland production is diverse: wood, cattle (grazing on leafy browse cut for them), fruit, mushrooms... It's a good resource base to keep people from starving, but again, it's hard on the tax man, especially because some years are good for wood and some for mushrooms, and merely taking one-third of whatever the peasants harvested doesn't necessarily give the nobles a sustainable supply base, let alone the means to wage war when the mood strikes. What if all they got in taxes were basket after basket of mushrooms after a rainy summer? How would they heat the castle that winter? How will they fight with nothing but pickled mushrooms for provisions?

    This led, during the enlightenment, to experiments with tree-farming in forests. Now note that I've talked about woodlands up to this point? Medieval forests were where royalty hunted deer back in ye olden times. The enlightened German nobility started fiddling with the idea of growing trees as if they were corn, single species plantations with trees grown in rows, in their forests. It worked great and the practice spread, even though they ran into serious problems once they'd harvested the first crop of wood and the pests and pathogens found the trees. So they started fiddling to keep the trees healthy, and have kept doing so today. The bottom line with forestry is that it is measurable: the landowner (in theory) knows how much wood they're getting and when, so they can be part of an industrial supply chain, meet their contracts, pay their taxes, and so forth. That was the basis of modern scientific forestry, and a little lesson in why it's not called woodlandry. It's hard to make it sustainable, but it is measurable, and measurable has beat sustainable for the last few centuries, especially with a whole New World to conquer and plant trees on.

    Woodland management fell by the wayside, along with all that squishy sustainable agriculture stuff that doesn't let everyone get rich, but helps people get by. It has been revived here and there as a conservation measure, because diverse woodlands support a lot of species, and it turns out that traditional coppicing practices actually keep more species in a coppiced woodland than does just letting the trees grow wild, let alone planting single species in rows and dousing them with pesticides to keep the bugs off.

    Finally, this points to the central problem of the 21st Century: resilience and productivity appear to be inversely correlated. Woodlands, properly managed, are pretty resilient, but they're not very productive, and what they do produce varies unpredictably over time. Tree farms can be enormously productive of wood, but they require massive inputs, are hard to sustain, and don't often produce much other than wood. Unfortunately, with a burgeoning population and changing climate, we need systems that are both enormously productive and extremely resilient, and it's not clear that maximizing both is possible.

    1114:

    Coppicing is an AI-hard task and not prone to labour-saving automation. It can be done by serfs or slaves but it needs a human at the controls to do it and the yield per man-hour, woman-hour or child-hour is low. It can be made easier by the use of steel billhooks rather than soft iron blades, or petrol-driven (or in the modern idiom, battery-powered) cutters but there's still a lot of human muscular effort put into the operation and that needs to be replaced by food calories.

    I've done coppicing in the past, a day or two's effort each year to trim back some driveway trees which were sprouting. The amount of coppice produced might look impressive piled up but if we had attempted to make charcoal from it in the traditional manner (piling it up, damping it down, setting it alight and then turfing the smouldering heap) we might have ended up with a couple of kilos of usable charcoal and no more. We probably used more bagged charcoal in the evening barbeque after sweating bullets and getting blisters swinging a billhook during the day.

    1115:

    Such as the famous incident in the 1976 Olympics, where a Soviet pentathlete (Boris Onischenko) was found to have modified their epee so that they could score hits during the fencing, without touching their opponent?

    Such as every other case of cheating on the rules or circumstances. Which is obviously not this case, figuratively speaking, because you forgot to mention that he won his opponents even without "cheating" anyway. And cheating was completely unnecessary for him as experienced Olympic winner, and possibly even impossible for him to manufacture since working condition of equipment had to be properly verified before actual competition. Which leads me to a quite obvious conclusion that this was a successful case of blackmail with forged evidence. Considering the situation with boycotting of Olympic games in 1976, 1980 and 1984, this sort of fraud and all the rest of meddling, this is what almost completely destroyed the Olympic movement in the 80s.

    For instance, heat and humidity are predictable, and a certain degree of acclimation is possible. Like "arrive at the competition venue early enough to get over any jetlag", it's not "cheating", it's normal and thorough preparation that is available to all athletes and nations equally. Usually it is a normal situation if some people somehow are at disadvantage in sports if they are moving into a region with different climate and weather. Not all of these can be avoided entirely, but most of them can be neutralized, if the executive side is really interested in it. If.

    For instance, The Agency, with all the powers it has gathered, under a contrived excuse, can actually make your life far more difficult by series of inconveniences that are supposed to be avoided. It can delay your accreditation, or access to the site, or restrict freedom of movement, and make you go through exhausting procedures over and over again. Not to speak of possibilities of direct blackmail and shaming campaign, since it tries to assume iron-handed control over every aspect of international sports. And, given the institutional drift of people who represent the organization, this sort of attitude may as well completely destroy any resemblance of competition in the sport all over again, turn it in the situation where only money and power can lead you to the victory and not any of the personal achievements. Because this is how these people understand it.

    I find "performance psychology" fascinating (not least because of the number of shysters involved). Good psychs are awesome, bad ones are useless or damaging. You do not need to tell me about psychology, because is natural for "winners" of certain sort to go by a classic formula "if I/se win, it is fair and just, but if I/se do not win, it is unfair and cheating". That is all.

    Again, training in this is available to all, equally. Sort of. You can train all you want, but facing a real humiliation on the side of judgement can ruin your will to participate, once and for all. Also, a pretty funny story I found today. There's still limitations for access to the Games, even if pretty rational, but these limitations still can be bypassed by a manipulation. https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/olympics/winter-olympics/winter-olympics-2018-pyeongchang-elizabeth-swaney-ski-halfpipe-video-average-a8218991.html

    1116:

    (regarding Boris Onischenko)... Which leads me to a quite obvious conclusion that this was a successful case of blackmail with forged evidence.

    It's interesting that when I pointed out the lists of UK or US athletes caught cheating, you say nothing. And yet, when I give an example where a Soviet athlete was caught cheating (to the satisfaction of the IOC, and where the USSR accepted the outcome) you immediately insist that it must have been blackmail or forgery.

    I can understand that people like to think that their nation does things well. I can understand that people have been told by their media that they are surrounded, beset by enemies, the victims of plots by those wishing harm to Russia. But if you deny all possible criticism of Russia and Russians, in the face of any and all evidence, it makes you look like your defining feature is as a Russian Nationalist - much like Trump supporters are American Nationalists, Farage supporters are English Nationalists, and Sturgeon supporters are Scottish Nationalists.

    Unfortunately, nationalism tips into "My Country, right or wrong" depressingly quickly. An example of this would be whether you accepted that it was the NKVD that carried out the Katyn Massacre. This is another well-documented case, accepted by the Russian government, but often denied by the more strident Russian nationalists...

    1117:

    One wishes the story about the dining hall at New College Oxford was true Sadly, it apparently is not

    1118:

    I am sorry, but you have it seriously wrong about woodland management being unpredictable. As coppicing (the relevant form) is done every 10-30 years in temperate climates, it's much LESS sensitive to bad years than agriculture! And arguably less than coal mining, because one explosion will take many months or years of hard work to fix, during which little or no coal is being produced. What's more, before modern machinery, there really isn't any benefit to clear-felling every 30 years and replanting over coppicing - indeed, the latter has the advantage that it's less time- and weather-critical than the planting stage.

    You have a good point about all of the other products, but you can disregard them and coppicing is STILL a better (pre industrial revolution) solution than the modern approaches, where suitable trees will grow as stools (in the UK, that's everywhere except the high ground). So why did the modern approach take over? Mainly, it's easier to automate, though it also produces more large timbers, and conifers (coastal redwood excepted) won't coppice - also, note WHEN it took over (18th-19th century in the UK, well after the industrial revolution).

    To Nojay: yes, coppicing is labour intensive and hard work but are you seriously claiming that it is more so than coal mining before machinery?

    1119:

    I meant to include this in the previous post. Coppicing is NOT done with a billhook; the trunks that are being cut are typically 6-9" in diameter, and you use an axe. You use a billhook only to remove any brushwood that gets in the way, and trim the logs. I have done what you have, and my output was in terms of several hundredweight a day. A full-time woodsman would manage tons.

    1120:

    Upon thinking it over, 6-9" is probably larger than the trunks would have been when the stools were close together and established. 4-6" was probably more typical - but, in any case, you use an axe. People would have chosen the period to coppice according to the diameters they wanted, as they do today.

    1121:

    Early coal-mining was carried out in the best, most accessible coal seams and half a ton of production per person of coal per shift was quite normal using railcarts for underground haulage and draft animals to power windlasses etc. That would result in about 15GJ of heat energy per shift for hard coal. As demand for coal increased other methods of extraction such as shot-firing improved production rates -- a ton of coal per man-shift was achievable in some mines in the UK without coal-cutting machinery and hydraulic-powered panzer coal-loaders but with steam winding gear, pumps etc.

    A tonne of damp softwood logs would produce a hundred kg of charcoal, maybe less - a lot of the combustion energy of the softwood logs is used to cook the wood to char it and isn't available in the end product. That amount of charcoal would produce maybe 3 or 4 GJ of heat energy per man-shift and there isn't a lot of automation that would improve the production rate other than the use of power tools.

    Most coppicing I've seen is done on new-growth wood sprouting from established trees like hazel and ash, pieces a few cm in diameter maybe two or three years old. Wood of 6 to 9 inches diameter (15-20cm) is getting close to tree-trunk status representing ten years growth or more. Your figures might be climate-based, of course. The UK gets a lot less sunlight than places like the central US hence the rate of growth of such trees here is significantly less. A worked example -- the south-facing hillside above my father's cousin's hillfarm at 56 deg N in central Scotland was planted out for pulp pinewood back in the early 1970s and harvested in about 1995 or so after twenty years of growth. The trees were about 20-25cm diameter at that point, no more.

    1122:

    EXCITING NEWS FLASH

    So, I just emailed my editors a file called "Invisible Sun (Draft) .docx" ...

    And now I can collapse in a corner for a while.

    Over the next few months I'll be taking a sabbatical that's been overdue for 2-3 years, except for edits to in-production work (like INVISIBLE SUN) and dealing with a very sick family member. So I guess not a sabbatical really, just scheduled time off from writing books to deal with emergencies instead.

    But at least it's done. (For now.)

    1123:

    10% efficiency for green wood is probably about right, using clamps, but I did mean that a woodsman would cut down, trim and cut up tons (plural) in a day - I can easily believe 5 tons, given that I have done several hundredweight in a half day. So the difference in productivity was marginal. What you can't do with coppicing is change the production rate at short notice, especially given that woodlands don't reach full growth rate the first cycle!

    https://energypedia.info/wiki/Charcoal_Production

    I said in #118 that coppicing was (and is) done on a 10-30 year cycle; 2-3 years is for clearing brushwood, which isn't the same. The only conifer suitable for coppicing is coastal redwood, and the pulpwood plantations you are talking about are all less than about a hundred years old. People often forget just how recent conifer forestry is in the UK.

    1124:

    That is most excellent news! Please do have a good and effective rest, and my best wishes to your family member.

    1125:

    All this talk of the Incas - I'll bring up again the novel by my late friend, Suzanne Alles Blom, Inca. She did a large amount of research for that book, and it's alternate history - things were not working out for the Conquistadors quite as they hoped.

    Btw, for whoever keeps doing this, it's Spanish, not Spainish.

    1126:

    Re: our last Sister abandoned us on the 28th to your World

    I can read that several ways, lady...but given my life history, my reaction is to offer my deepest condolences.

    1127:

    The Rainbow Family Gathering? Gee, my late wife and I talked about trying to make one someday.

    On the other hand, most of my life, I've been going to small-to-medium-to-large anarchic gatherings, one that may have made 10,000.

    Of course, I say this based on the actual definition of anarchy, "no ruler", and so every sf club and con I've ever been to fall under that rubric.

    1128:

    Yea! Please let us know when it becomes orderable.

    Take care of yourself, and all the best to your family member.

    1129:

    "People often forget just how recent conifer forestry is in the UK."

    ...and a sort of vaguely related "not a lot of people know that" fact about British wood use, which is worth mentioning mainly for people thinking up alternate history scenarios:

    The British Navy got its masts from Scandinavia. We even got involved with crappy little wars up in the Baltic that nobody's ever heard of in order to ensure continued supply. Masts were also the reason we were interested in the forests of the North American continent once we'd discovered them.

    As for labour output... the figure that sticks in my head is that the navvies building the railways could shift 10-15 tons of muck a day. I think it's a useful reference point because it is a maximum-output figure for a single activity carried out efficiently - ie. you can just shift weight, unlike mining or forestry where you have to do lots of other things to make the weight shiftable in the first place.

    It also required copious energy input, in the form of large quantities of meat. When British navvies went to build railways in France alongside French navvies, the French ones, used to a much less energetic diet, couldn't believe how much muck the British ones managed to shift.

    1130:

    Excellent! Get some rest. Spend time someplace nice. I hope the situation with your relative works out easily and happily.

    Also, isn't The Labyrinth Index coming out this month?

    1131:

    "Close friends to 5, and friends to 15"? Ok, so I guess I'm waaaayyyy out on the bell curve, since I have a lot more friends than 15.

    But then, most of that is in fandom, and fandom doesn't fit most graphs. For example, only in fandom (and I've done this two or three times) if you play "telephone", does what comes out the end is what went in....

    1132:

    Also, isn't The Labyrinth Index coming out this month?

    Nope — end of October.

    1133:

    I'll make one more comment, and y'all can check me: 1. He claims to not be anti-immigrant, 2. claims to believe that Brexit, possibly in any fashion (hard, soft, nuke) will help the 99% of the UK 3. It was a job, and he did it as best he can, even if he disapproved of the views of some of the people on his side.

    Have I missed anything?

    Y'know, back around '70, when I was working as a lab tech, I was working on several projects for my manager (who, oddly enough, was Welsh...). After about nine months, I finally went to him, and said that as I was against 'Nam, I didn't want to work on the project developing ceramic armor for choppers over there. He understood, and moved me to other projects.

    David, on the other hand, said, "sign me up", though I guess he doesn't quite idolize Leni Riefenstahl.

    1134:

    Sounds like a much better than average manager. In my experience most people only recognise them in retrospect.

    1135:

    i meant to say at first... It helps to see some really bad management early in a career for calibration purposes...

    1136:

    Check your units: the variation in output is on a per-year basis. Coppicing in ye olde woodlands was done in multiple sections doing rotations. What you get depends on the section cut. Then there's the other woodland products, which are also variable.

    1137:

    I'm glad we are actually making it closely to the point, at last, it usually takes about that long with types I met before.

    It's interesting that when I pointed out the lists of UK or US athletes caught cheating, you say nothing. What should I say to you? By your definition, these are isolated cases and they are properly dealt with, leaving reputation of US or UK unscathed. Meanwhile, of course, you say that USSR is the entirely different case and is guilty of cheating, because it was caught. And by extension, everybody who lives in USSR is guilty of these hideous acts of cheating. And and everyone who does not agree is guilty also. Damn sleeper KGB spies everywhere. And, of course, if USSR was guilty, then Russia will be guilty as well, post hoc.

    to the satisfaction of the IOC, and where the USSR accepted the outcome And it is natural that, while completely ignoring any of my rational prerequisites, you pointed out at connivance of USSR, as if it is somehow proves the rightfulness of judgement. I would not expect any less.

    But if you deny all possible criticism of Russia and Russians, in the face of any and all evidence, it makes you look like your defining feature is as a Russian Nationalist - much like Trump supporters are American Nationalists, Farage supporters are English Nationalists, and Sturgeon supporters are Scottish Nationalists. I see what your problem is. You think I would deny everything you throw at me, but in reality it is that everything you threw at me so far, is what I denied. An error of observer, obviously. It appears, you simply do not know any facts about my country that I would not deny. Is it my fault? Or you think I am somehow obliged to bend for your inconsequential accusations?

    Criticism is an art, not a weapon. Criticism does not intend to destroy person by defamation and falsification built on shaky logic. Criticism does not intend to defend the position of critic by claiming that he is innocent of such hideous crimes. Unfortunately, people mostly do not understand the difference and continue to parrot everything they read without even attempting at logical reasoning. I have seen too many examples in my country and I must admit, it will take a lot of time to fix the situation even here.

    Unfortunately, nationalism tips into "My Country, right or wrong" depressingly quickly. Unfortunately for you, it is not only about country. I was born in USSR, and USSR is no more. But there's a whole lot more people who are still sharing my past and I feel responsible for that, too. Boris Onischenko was born in the territory of modern Ukraine, does a protecting his cause make me Ukrainian nationalist? Obviously not, because their nationalism is built on denial of the past. What about German nationalists, shouldn't they defend the reputation of their compatriots? Oh, they would not do that, for the fear of their reputation, because their nationalism is built on betrayal as well.

    An example of this would be whether you accepted that it was the NKVD that carried out the Katyn Massacre. So if I ever do admit that it was an actual event and not Nazi falsification, does it make me Russian nationalist, since my country officially still admits it, or it does not? I do not want to allow to use my nation and history as a fulcrum for certain powers to take over the world and break other peoples lives. I do not wish for someone to desecrate my past, to force me accept their truth and bend to their will. It makes a definition of a sane and responsible person, not some strawman nationalist with superiority complex.

    1138:
  • Yes, he does. However I have never once called him anti-immigrant, I have called him a “fellow traveller”, meaning that he has knowingly supported and furthered a cause that provides cover, encouragement, and a thin veneer of acceptability to anti-immigrant campaigners (and has done so by using key anti-immigrant leaders and demagogues — thereby helping to legitimise their opinions).

  • Claims to believe that Brexit will be the best option for the UK, but when challenged to show real benefits mumbles about rise of fascism across Europe (and then won’t even fully commit to that prediction), and when asked a direct question about parts of the UK actively hurt by Brexit claims to have not seen the question and/or misunderstood.

  • This smells a lot like “I was just following orders”.

  • I have actually a written a longer piece attempting to articulate David’s arguments as best I can, taking account of the apparent contradictions in much of what he has said. However, seeing as he seems to have gotten bored with us, or possibly is recovering from cognitive whiplash, I have left it un-posted at this time.

    1139:

    You might want to look up the original article by Dunbar, "Neocortex size as a constraint on group size in primates" for some ideas about upping the number.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar's_number

    One idea would be enlarging the neocortex or working memory, either pharmacologically or by genetic engineering.

    OTOH, I just thought about Portia again (thank you Mr. Watts...)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portia_(spider)#Intelligence

    If I remember Echopraxia correctly, one idea mentioned is Portia uses a relativley small brain to emulate a much bigger brain by timesharing:

    http://rifters.com/real/2009/01/iterating-towards-bethlehem.html

    Which might be a mechanism to crack Dunbar's number with our current neocortex. you just load a backup of the group in question from long-term-memory.

    (Err, yes, it might have something to do with me and an old friend being of the Ghenghiz Cohen school of friendships, I can hardly remember the names of quite a few people I interacted with 20 years ago, but get me together with them and it's all the same, though the person having changed somewhat might be a problem.)

    1140:

    I can read that several ways, lady I can read that in multiple ways weirder than you imagine, hence some obtuse deep .. frustration expressed upthread. (who abandoned who (and how)?, who remains?, why?, why?, why?, etc.) See also (possibly) the "grenade down the pants" bit above, and some of the other odd stuff. (This, and they, are important to me, TBH.) BTW, happy that you're paying attention. Too much ignoring going on here.

    1141:

    Eh? You're completely missing the point; the variation in yield over a 20 year period is 20-25% of that of a single year, and it makes only 5% difference if the current year is disastrous. In mediaeval times, complete crop failure was common (and disastrous) due to weather variations - indeed, I remember it happening (locally) to farmers in the 1960s. Those of us who garden in the UK will know how often we get complete failure of a crop. That happens to established tree stools only when there is a new and catastrophic disease, but the equivalent DOES happen in mining.

    As I said, ignore the other products, and my points stand.

    1142:

    Fair enough, we'll agree to disagree.

    1143:

    The question is still: in what context(s) is Dunbar's number relevant?

    Is it relevant for the American Rainbow Gathering, which is allegedly anarchic? Not on the surface, but apparently "a few hundred" people build and maintain most of the critical infrastructure. So yes or no? Hard to tell, at least for something that lasts a month.

    Is it relevant for the US Congress? Maybe, but the factions it's split into don't fall neatly into Dunbar numbers either.

    Is it relevant for gray parrot flocks, which can get into the middle hundreds? Hard call, but then again, they've got a much smaller brain than do humans. Are they more socially efficient? Is Dunbar's Number about hierarchical structuring in groups, or is it about organizing masses of organisms?

    Is it relevant for herring, which learn the yearly migration patterns from older herring? I point that out because it's a simple example of a huge group doing something orderly following a size/age hierarchy, using a simple brain.

    And I won't even get into ant colonies.

    This isn't to say that Dunbar's Number is irrelevant to human or other primate organizations (and yes, I did read Dunbar's original paper and his How Many Friends Does One Person Need?). However, if you're trying to get around it, it's useful to more precisely define what it is you're trying to circumvent by increasing your Dunbar quotient. If it's solving a problem akin to herring migration, you may not need additional brain power. If it's making Congress more responsive to voter problems...

    1144:

    Happy to answer. Been busy having cameras stuck inside me / biopsy so not been massively online. Guess your question is the NI one - will answer this properly tomorrow.

    1145:

    "GIANT FUCKING RED HGV LORRY"

    It's the one on the right in @SwindonFireRDS's avatar pic. 26-tonne(?) curtain-sided 6x2 with its own forklift like a cygnet on the back.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/894848102326308864/Tg88_gzV.jpg

    You're right that the original tweet with the pic you were talking about has been deleted. It used to say "77 mile round trip for our Operational Support Unit last night to Amesbury. Thankfully the incident wasn't serious and our decontamination shower wasn't required." and the picture was accompanied by what looks like text off a local newspaper website that says "Incident at Amesbury's Archers Gate - 8.56pm 30th June 2018 - Updated 9.48am (I think) 1st July 2018 An incident in the Kings Gate area of Amesbury on Saturday evening (June 30th) is thought to have been a drug-related medical episode. More than 10 emergency vehicles arrived on the scene from police, ambulance and fire service. A number of roads around the estate were closed for a time, but re-opened within a couple of hours."

    As well as the lorry there is a smaller picture of a police tape barrier on some random housing estate which could be anywhere from Aberdeen to South Croydon.

    Hardly seems worth the bother of deleting something so trivial...

    1146:

    I do not want to allow to use my nation and history as a fulcrum for certain powers to take over the world and break other peoples lives. I do not wish for someone to desecrate my past, to force me accept their truth and bend to their will. It makes a definition of a sane and responsible person, not some strawman nationalist with superiority complex.

    This is reasonable; but in return, I suspect you are applying a blanket interpretation to my motives. For example, if I believe that the Skripals (and Litvinenko) were attacked by organs of the Russian state, it's not because I fear or hate Russians, or because I wish to desecrate Russia's past.

    And by extension, everybody who lives in USSR is guilty of these hideous acts of cheating.

    Here, you are ascribing a motive to me that I do not recognise in myself (and I've looked). If you look back at my posts, you'll note where I describe how a British athlete was helped to his Olympic gold medal by the Soviet team. When I coach, I use the example of Sergei Martynov more often than Matt Emmons.

    I'm not opposed to the USSR, Soviet citizens, Russia, or Russians. One thing that I learned very young (from living abroad as a child, including Eastern Europe in the 1970s) is that people are people, and much the same everywhere. Some good, some bad; some selfish, others generous. I spent ten minutes yesterday, during a discussion on current affairs, trying to explain to an Englishman the scale of the sacrifice that the USSR made during the Great Patriotic War (i.e. that the USSR suffered more combat deaths at Stalingrad, and over twice as many at Leningrad, as the UK suffered in the entire war) and explaining that in 1974 I had lived far too close to two NATO members - Greece a military dictatorship, Turkey soon to suffer a military coup - who nearly went to war over Cyprus.

    I'm quite happy to separate the actions of "the Leadership" from the actions of "the Nation". If Putin chooses to annexe Crimea, or send Russian troops into the Donbass, it doesn't make me see Russians as a threat; it makes me see Russian government policy as a threat. I lived for a while as a "legitimate target" of Irish Republican terrorists; I don't fear or dislike the Irish as a result. If President Trump threatens Canada and Europe and applies trade sanctions to us, it doesn't make me see Americans as a threat - it makes me see US Republican trade policy as a threat.

    If I choose to believe, based on the evidence, that MH17 was shot down by a missile fired by incompetents, but supplied by the Russian state; or that Litvinenko and the Skripals were poisoned on the orders of the Russian state; it does not make me "rabidly anti-Russian", or so gullible that I believe the lies of Russia-haters.

    If you choose to deny what appear to me to be credible sources of evidence that the Russian state has behaved badly - i.e. the Ministry of Sport was giving its institutional support to hide drug use among Russian athletes - I want to discover what drives your belief.

    Are you another reasonable and skeptical person, just operating on a different diet of input data from me? Are you unquestioningly supporting a government that has chosen to lie? Or is it somewhere between - i.e. you might suspect that the Russian state has done illegal things, but will support it silently because you believe that it's justified?

    In this discussion, you have used blanket statements about entire nations (i.e. the Ukraine) - does this mean that you are prejudiced by nationality? And do you assume that others have that same prejudice-by-nationality, and see Russia in a similar way?

    1147:

    And also I guess the output of something non-perishable cropped at several-year intervals is both a lot more predictable, and a lot easier to mitigate failures of a crop, than is the case for something perishable that you harvest the same year you plant it.

    1148:

    Oh, my dear dear Man. Like your Twitter, you're incredibly brave or foolish or just unique.

    77 mile round trip for our Operational Support Unit last night to Amesbury. Thankfully the incident wasn't serious and our decontamination shower wasn't required

    ...just don't ask about the 4 day discrepancy between the EVENT and the media splurge.

    No, really: better you imagine this is Deadly Nerve Agents (insert US / UK 'CEHMICAL WWAPONS MEDIA EXPEUTRTS, UK ONE DOUBLES AS DOCTORS-WITH-WHITE-HELMET-EXPERT-CHIPPY-CHAPPY) rather than the real truth. OH, and really don't ask about the 3 units that no-one can ID properly and really have been purged. We were quite impressed: two are totally new / unknown to even us.

    LOOK! A SQUIRREL!

    Bit distracted: QANON LARP got busted, lots of tears (English words: love the double meanings) in Purple People's Plans.

    1149:

    Oh, and someone tell Martin / sleepingroutine that what they're discussing is like totes not a National thing only, it has heavily racial elements as well:

    Deadspin: Serena Williams Is One Of The Most Drug Tested Tennis Players NPR, 3rd July 2018 - NPR is basically BBC-light but Corporate shilling.

    So, someone smack both of them with a kipper and tell them to look a bit wider. (We won't shock either of them with the XX / XY stuff yet, neither of them seem ready for trans* issues)

    1150:

    DaffGrind @ 791:

    "As an upside, that's a step to renaming it the Department of War. (Oh wait, that's not much of an upside dispite being a bugbear roud these pats.) "

    I don't know it's such a bugbear. I suggested it would be a good idea because I think too much fuzzy thoughtlessness in U.S. politics is facilitated by euphemism. I.E. call it the "Department of War" because that's what it already is and plain language might help people be a little more skeptical about it, something I think is sorely lacking.

    1151:

    Spoilers, since the Tells are important, and UK Media are shitting all over themselves currently:

    GIANT FUCKING RED HGV LORRY

    Breaks the English language rules for meaningful progression.

    ttps://www.gingersoftware.com/content/grammar-rules/adjectives/order-of-adjectives/

    It's a hat-tip to .RU wizard / witch.

    1152:

    Elderly Cynic @ 796:

    "In the USA, the rabid anti-Russians are desperately searching for something that they can claim is proof that Putin/Russia were and are manipulating the USA."

    Meanwhile, here on Charlie's blog, the rabid anti-American commenters are ...

    1153:

    SFreader @ 803

    "Having just read a string of very scary 'You're all doomed!' comments above, decided I needed some optimism and maybe even a few tips on changing the playing field. So, here's a how-to book for dealing with a common workplace (and, increasingly, head of gov't) problem:
    https://www.vox.com/conversations/2017/9/26/16345476/stanford-psychologist-art-of-avoiding-assholes"


    Great idea. I've already ordered both of his books.

    1154:

    [On a serious note: Not the fucking .RU Gov or even left-over samples. .RU Wiz/Witch being explicit there]

    But, you know, fuck it, WWIII and/or Iran or anything to distract us all from Brexageddon is good, right?

    p.s.

    Really wasn't joking in @1086. H.O.P. / الجن‎ stuff.

    Like: H.S.S. power-players get droopy eyes all the TIME.

    Avatars get glowing ones[0] and some get a bit freeky on arrival.

    ~

    @Host - happy for you. snap those fingers we'll disappear too.

    [0] http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/deep-fried-memes

    1155:

    Ọya-Iyansan @ 810:

    "Please grow up: Sutton is a 100% asshole himself"

    Takes one to know one I guess.

    1156:

    And, since we're in a fuck-it mood:

    It had to happen! ⁦@KTHopkins⁩ meets the Proud Boys — in Tel Aviv of all places! Ezra Levant, twitter, 27th June 2018.

    Things to know as facts:

    1) Rebel Media is a Canadian neo-Fascist setup

    2) Proud Boys are literally MRA neo-Fascists

    3) Katie Hopkins is, well, a neo-Fascist

    4) It's no accident this happened in Israel (might want to look into old Tommy Boy who is also part of the network)

    Basically: Every 'Democratic, Western' country seems to have a massive neo-Fascist problem at the moment. Spoilers: they all know each other.

    No, fuck off, it's not "ZE JEAWS", it's a second tier reactionary vanguard funded by a lot of different peoples (although, usually Caucasian / WASP / Right-Wing Jewish etc) who are quite happy to now parade their ascendancy across multiple countries.

    Hint: it's the skin tone, and the Abrahamic Roots, not anything else that matters in their worlds.

    1157:

    Not really.

    Sutton has an obvious record of being a) a bit of a fucking hard-nosed MBA type 'rip your opposition to pieces' and b) hardly practices what his dull shitty little self-help business books preach.

    Come @ me with where (in REALITY rather than Virtual) we've been an 'asshole'.

    No, really: step up now. We're a bit irked tonight.

    1158:

    JBS, must ask:

    Is one of your EYES open, but the other one inexplicably DROOPY / CLOSED / LIDDED?

    The TIME when that's a marker is... well. Ending. snap

    1159:

    Oh, and if you want to get tingly-libel-time: We'll give you 5:4 odds that there's current a video of little-miss-KH getting 'tag-teamed' by the 'Proud Boys'.

    Nasty thought.

    But then again, Paris Hilton charged $20 a pop at her 'leaked' video, so it's not as if this isn't just the Juggalo End of the Market, eh?

    p.s.

    We're really pissed off atm. Sorry @Host - we're all looking forward to INVISIBLE SUN.

    1160:

    davidcshipley @ 874:

    "Was it really still a thing in the 00s? I was mad for Usenet in the mid-90s but I don't recall using it very much post-school (2001 onwards) "

    I still have an account. Don't use it too much because the one discussion group I was interested is nothing but a couple of trolls arguing with each other. But it's still useful for binary files.

    I don't have a TV and even if I did, I couldn't afford (cost/benefit ratio) to subscribe to BBC America on cable, so it's the only way I've found to reliably get the new episodes of Doctor Who.

    Also still good for finding obscure folk music recordings.

    1161:

    JBS seems pissed @ something. Randomly. Suddenly we're all anti-USA? The entire blog is anti-USA? Suddenly we're... It really would help if JBS was honest about his gripes.

    You know, we're also a bit miffed: the UK quashed a major investigation into extraordinary rendition last month.

    Tell us where the aggro is coming from JBS, apart from, you know, you're entire Government being a fucking laughing stock / shambles of madness and corruption at the moment.

    1162:

    JBS, you need to upgrade your wetware:

    500 'Doctor Who' Episodes Are Now Available To Stream, But For A Limited Time Only Bustle, May 2018

    https://www.doctorwho.tv/whats-new/article/classic-doctor-who-comes-to-twitch-for-seven-week-marathon

    22nd May.

    So, er.... Actually 100% what you wanted. الجن

    See? Ask and your wishes come true ;)

    1163:

    Hey, hope any invasive probes gave good news in their diagnosis.

    I.O. came back from the Labrador Farm and has only tweeted about her 'victory' over disabled parking spaces and her victory making new vacant ones.

    Warned you your side played naaaasty.

    1164:

    Nojay @ 929:

    "The A-10 is a piss-poor CAS aircraft."

    Yeah, but it's better suited to the role than B-1 bombers are. In defense of the B-1 crew, they were apparently unaware and not trained that the "sniper pod" could not detect the IR strobes used to mark "friendly" troops, and so couldn't differentiate between them and the Taliban they were fighting.

    The same limitations apply to all of the other aircraft the Air Force proposes to use in the CAS role. It's not that the A-10 is good or bad in the CAS role; it's that all the other options currently available (or proposed) are so much worse.

    1165:

    @1115

    Here's the rules:

    Ignore me - fine

    Insult me - fine

    Tussle with me - fine

    Block me - fine

    Post @Me then ignore responses?

    That breaks Our Rules.

    If you want to play, we'll just track your and david's stuff and show how your funding / ideological partnership is not exactly on a "innocently met on a random SF blog space".

    p.s.

    Hilariously burnt toast smells from y'all.

    1166:

    Oh, and JBS / David.

    We've finally worked out something: y'all not running 5D chess like we do, you're mostly defenseless shitty little Apes using bad psychology / magic tricks and some rather invasive tech you really shoudn't have access to unless you were [redacted].

    This has a major factor on your societies' and species' survival rates.

    Hint: Not in a good way.

    Cunts. Both of you. And you know why.

    1167:

    Charlie Stross @ 1122:

    "Over the next few months I'll be taking a sabbatical that's been overdue for 2-3 years, except for edits to in-production work (like INVISIBLE SUN) and dealing with a very sick family member. So I guess not a sabbatical really, just scheduled time off from writing books to deal with emergencies instead."

    Whatever you do, I hope you will find some refreshment & relaxation. Ease the pressure a bit.

    1168:

    Triptych.

    You'll want to learn this meme: Thunderbirds: Airship?! YT: Tunderbirds.

    It's really current right now.

    p.s.

    There. Are. Four. D's.

    None of them work on us, because we're much much faster than you (2nd prefigures SUN splash on the 3rd, David, in anyone's world)

    The fact you creepy fucks can't admit it and have to rely on bullshit is just fucking icing.

    1169:

    Actually, according to the NPR broadcast I heard, Roger Federer is tested more than Serena. The newsreader speculated that perhaps the problem isn't Serena's race, it's that both she and Roger are in their 30s and playing amazingly well for their age. What I don't know is whether other aging players are tested to a similar extent.

    I'm not going to cast further aspersions on any of these players, but I do think the drug testers would help their cause if they were more forthcoming about why some performers are tested more than others.

    1170:

    Of course not. Though as usual the "debunkers" are talking as much bollocks as everyone else.

    Amusing that this too is connected to the ancient temperatures discussion.

    1171:

    Edinburgh Fire Service has a curtainsider trailer with attached forklift that's used to support major incidents including pile-ups on the motorways. I've seen it driving around the city on occasion. The tractor unit isn't necessarily a dedicated Fire Service vehicle with flashing blues. The trailer is, as far as I know, a logistics transport carrying spare parts, extra hoses, breathing air cylinders, firefighting foam and pumps, that sort of thing.

    I'd like it to be something like Thunderbird 2 with various "pods" ready to go at a moment's notice but I think it's just a vehicle that rocks up to an incident site a few hours after the first responders do with a shopping list of stuff pulled from stores loaded onto the trailer as the reports come in of what's needed and what's running out.

    1172:

    Yes, it's a known issue (esp. in cycling): testing resources are slim, so the top end is tested % more often than the upcomers, meaning that the incentive is to dope / cheat heavily until you break through then enjoy the benefits. Same as boxers / MMA fighters 'bulking up' heavily then fighting: they've already got the advantages (muscle density / mass) but no longer need the EPA / hormones.

    Federer is tested so much because he's just freaky - the physique, muscle mass etc etc just doesn't add up for him, so they test him a lot. [HINT: HE HAS SPECIAL WETWARE / EYE UPGRADES NOT USUAL SEEN, HIS SICCADA EYE RATES ARE NOT BASE LINE). Bascially, his eyes functions like ours do: no down time.

    Helps a lot when you're hitting fast balls.

    p.s.

    JBS & David should be warned that they're being viewed by [redacted] gallery as well as a couple more atm. Dumb move poking us tonight of all nights.

    1173:

    Hey: if a Star Wars clip isn't front page debunking news, not sure how credible the Daily Mail is anymore, right?

    1174:

    Given that I find all forms of sport mind-numbingly tedious, my filter bubble has been pretty good at excluding sport-related content since pre-mass-internet days. Even now, were it not for this discussion, I'd have a hard time answering if you asked me what Serena's sport was. The only reason I've heard of her is because she's been persecuted with tests for this and that ever since she came on the scene.

    1175:

    Yes... thatsthejoke.jpg

    In that:

    a) They wiped all those piccies anyhow

    b) Conspiracy Space is going wild about it

    c) The actual real spooky units spotted ain't getting no-where near Twitter accounts

    d) They weren't Bio/Chem Units.

    e) Not MI5 / Spooky / Firearms

    f) Two ain't on anyone's registers outside the Star Chamber

    RABBIT!

    .......................................................................................FOX.

    That's all we'll say about dat.

    1176:

    This is reasonable; but in return, I suspect you are applying a blanket interpretation to my motives. Yes, it was an exaggeration, but rather preventive one. I do not really push you to entirely disbelieve everything they say, you see, because there are other aspects that may make these irresponsible actions more justifiable. But I do not care about other possibilities as long as they make fools of everyone by large margin.

    I'm quite happy to separate the actions of "the Leadership" from the actions of "the Nation". If Putin chooses to annexe Crimea, or send Russian troops into the Donbass, it doesn't make me see Russians as a threat; it makes me see Russian government policy as a threat. I'm not really happy. Nobody out there is really fxxking happy. Especially when it is about our external policy. We, especially older generation, remember how much effort was put into keeping up with Europe's and America's demands and where it all eventually led us to. Consider Turkey's situation, for once, they are stuck in similar conditions for much longer.

    Most people want to see their country rich, powerful, just and rightful, rather not at expense of others but by their own power. They would not tolerate any insulting statements about it's actions. There's a quite of controversy about Putin's actions on internal politics, but you should know, probably, that the external policy is something of a different situation. Both leadership and nation of Russia feel threatened by external influence of certain governments (and their puppet states) and not by the members of these nations, as ongoing events are demonstrating. Perhaps, these governments would be more successful if they would not throw tantrums and pushing in random directions, while imitating strategy and trying to sow a discord. Perhaps they would be more likeable minding their own business.

    If I choose to believe, based on the evidence I choose to believe the opposite, and especially it is based on broader definition of evidence. Not only the forged and promoted one, not the evidence that comes dosed in limited articles or social nets. Not only the opinion that is carefully measured by officials, but the information that comes from channels free of government influence, too. Even my nation's government sources aren't exactly as eager to promote my country's interests, because they are afraid to lose their personal wealth or connections, and this is a big problem.

    In this discussion, you have used blanket statements about entire nations (i.e. the Ukraine) - does this mean that you are prejudiced by nationality? And do you assume that others have that same prejudice-by-nationality, and see Russia in a similar way? As I said before, not really a blanket statement. Especially considering the fact that before 2014 my own family had connections with some of people inside this country - before they were severed by political unrest. And since I live far ways from their country, I have all reasons to believe other people did suffer much more from these events. As I said before, the dynamics between our nations is much closer than the others usually enjoy, much like Great Britain's regions find between each other. Attempts of NATO to get involved in these relations WERE NOT MET WITH JOY by at least 97% of Russian people (except West-adoring liberals, of course). After two wars near our borders, most of us have every reason to believe that NATO expansion can only be stopped by immediate threat of retaliation.

    And do you assume that others have that same prejudice-by-nationality, and see Russia in a similar way? Naturally, and especially so about governments of most former USSR republics. After all, they are nationalists and they own the government of these states, and there's every reason for them to be afraid to be under influence (no that they don't enjoy other countries' support). But I chose not to care tool much - unfortunately for them, this isolationist stance is not really economically sustainable.

    1177:

    Star Wars fails to register with me... always has done. It wasn't the one, anyway. The Coldyn was British, but his gebiet got stepped on when they noticed what was coming out of it - before anyone else did - and you'll not find any trace of anything but obfuscation now (also, you'd have had to be there at the time). Star Wars got shook up a bit by using a common resource, and Hitch-hiker's a bit more, but neither of them were where it was at.

    1178:

    After two wars near our borders, most of us have every reason to believe that NATO expansion can only be stopped by immediate threat of retaliation.

    This, for me, is fascinating. Which two wars would these be? What threat did those wars pose to Russia?

    I'm not aware of any action by a neighbour that has involved their military forces entering Russian territory. I am, however, aware that the Russian military has crossed into other countries.

    The only situation I can think of where military levels of force have been employed on Russian soil, would be that of Chechen extremists (Moscow theatre siege of 2002 and the Beslan school siege of 2004); but while they were disgusting acts of terrorism, they were purely internal, as Chechnya is part of Russia.

    1179:

    Go fuck yourself you poisonous troll.

    She's finally got to me, so it's time to leave. Thanks everybody else for many interesting discussions over the years.

    (Virtual door slam)

    1180:

    In case anyone here is interested, it seems that post-911 undocumented immigration to the US peaked in 2006 and has been declining. Also, border apprehensions are down to what they were in the 1970s.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/migrants-us-mexico-declined-border-crisis-2018-7

    1181:

    Dumb move poking us tonight of all nights. OK I'll bite. Any unambiguous hints about what's irking you tonight, enough to get you cranky? (Serious question.)

    @Hugh Fisher #1179, use a blocker if you must. You've been a good presence here.

    Scott Pruitt's resignation letter has people agog/bemused, including me. I need to socialize more with such people just to understand them.

    1182:

    Bill Arnold @ 1181:

    "@Hugh Fisher #1179, use a blocker if you must. You've been a good presence here."

    I try to ignore trolls & assholes and reserve the kill-file for those who bore me.

    But I should have made note earlier when someone mentioned a plugin to block trolls etc. Some of the nonsense is beginning to bore me. If whoever mentioned it before would be so kind as to give me the name again, this time I will make an effort to remember it.

    1183:

    Cognitive Dissonance is a terrible thing to do to people, we agree.

    We're gone as well: but it's proven that your world of lies is cracking. It's as plain as day that little JBS & David started something and are socio-space-sculpting...

    And they're bad at it.

    p.s.

    Enjoy watching the Tee-Vee, it's all lies.

    1184:

    sleepingroutine @ 1115 this is what almost completely destroyed the Olympic movement in the 80s. What a pity. “the Olympic movement” is irredeemably corrupt, riddled with fascism & an appalling waste of money. [ & Pigeon @ 1174 Given that I find all forms of sport mind-numbingly tedious ….

    & @ 1137 Obviously not, because their nationalism is built on denial of the past The exact opposite, I would have thought … I suspect a huge amount of Ukrainian nationalism is based around the Holodomor.

    Hugh Fisher @ 1179 She does this to EVERYONE – please pay no attention, or as little as you can?

    Ioan @ 1180 Fascinating I wonder if the youTube’d video clip, of a young mother with baby telling the arsehole to “look after the children you greedy slime” had any effect? OTOH, he’s STILL making “jesus” noises & his replacement seems to be just as big an unwiped rectum.

    1185:

    Hm, I have a feeling we really don't want to go into gray parrots, at least if we don't want to talk about quite high bird intelligence, their relatively small brains compared to body size and different brain anatomy...

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2507884/

    Herring migrations are an interesting example, usually human groups don't approach their number, but the examples that come to mind with HSS involve crowd or mob behaviour, where we could argue how it relates to our usual social behaviour; we usually look at this through the lense of crowd control and crowd manipulation:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crowd_manipulation

    I haven't been to any Rainbows[1], but I guess C3 is somewhat similar in scope; it's a little more hierarchical, of course. And I realized helping out as an angel is a good way to socialize some years ago...

    (Generally, I'm not that keen on crowds, I have been to a soccer game once, and that was enough; it might be different when friends are around, but then, there are better and more personal ways to spend your time with friends than soccer games...)

    I'm usually doing the odd work, e.g. fetching drinks or technical supplies, or press interaction the last time I was aroung; I'm not that sure where my cognitive abilities are on the scale, but they usually are most taxed by who is doing what, which is not necessarily hierarchical but in any case specialization. It's also important to know other people, their interests, their abilities and their little quirks. It's also quite important to have a wider look on what's going on. Which are things not important in crowd behaviour, except maybe looking the guy in front of you is not collapsing or like.

    I can't remember names that easily, and faces are, err, complicated (I guess I wouldn't score for prosopagnosia, though), but somehow I can have complex interactions remembering personal details without knowing the name of the person in question. I guess everybody has moments like this, it might just be the extent differs somewhat, and I have not idea where I'm at compared to others.

    The number of people involved in these immediate interactions and the general fun I'm having at the congress would not approach Dunbar's number but would constitute a sizeable fraction of it; for the people I can remember afterwards, I guess it'd be about 20 persons, please note C3 is only 4 days, the sphere might get larger if it took longer. Also note the numbers cited for "close friends" (err, I haven't read the original paper by Dunbar, I just cited the article name to show what we're dealing with)

    https://www.sciencealert.com/the-latest-data-suggests-you-can-only-keep-five-close-friends

    might be somewhat lower in me in RL, at the moment I'm quite taxed by interacting with two to three people, though my interactions might be somewhat more intense in this regard than other people, we might argue I'm wired for somewhat smaller groups or my metrics are somewhat skewed. Or it's just communicating about science, mathematics and literature is somewhat more time-sonsuming. Or actually I'm interacting with more people and just not realizing it (as indicated, I'm not that good at self observation).

    From what I'read about Rainbows, they might be similar in this regard, and I guess the number people interact with when organizing might be similar, e.g. about 20 to 30. Which is somewhat lower than Dunbar's number.

    In retrospect, I guess you could compare C3 somewhat to a segmentary lineage society.

    The societies closer to Dunbar's number would be band societies, though the actual number of people involved in those is somewhat smaller, 30-50. Which actually is quite close to the 20 to 30 people I mentioned above.

    Hm, funny idea, maybe Dunbar's number is off after all. It's much too high, and the 150 people mentioned are something of an artifact only distantly related to the 20 to 50 people mentioned above.

    [1] The closest things around me that come to mind would be some psytrance festicals or fusion.

    1186:

    BTW, when going through wikipedia I found this one:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negara:_The_Theatre_State_in_Nineteenth-Century_Bali

    I have a feeling applying this model to contemporary politics might be fun.

    On another note, thick description might explain my ramblings somewhat. Quite often getting sidetracked by more salient features or just plain forgetting it or in the end coming to another conclusion, though.

    1187:

    I'll go into it later, but some short info...

    At the moment I'm not that much into training cognitive abilities but more into finding the optimal environmental parameters and implementing them.

    I guess I'm quite competent when dealing with the right amount of tasks; it's when I'm bored or overstressed or both at the same time I run into problems. MPh might help me somewhat in this regard, though it still doesn't make the failure modes go away.

    Having your pair bonding modules satisfied makes me much calmer, and it's somewhat funny she of the NMA collection objected to this (AFAIR she talked about "typical bordie behaviour", next time we meet I might talk to her about modern individualism as a bourgeoius delusion...) got much calmer and finished university once she was in a steady relationship. In my case, it didn't work out his time (there is a feeling that comes around when remembering the person involved declaring she had no feelings for me, after she insisted I should believe her, she never had a relation with another guy, not understanding I was angry with the guy because he mentioned beting her; for all I know, she might have started the brawl with him...)

    Setting realistic expectations is another issue, being depressed quite a few of us in university would have underwritten a philosophy of I want to know everything I want to be everywhere/I want to fuck everyone in the world/I want to do something that matters". In the end, I might never speak seven languages, though Polish might be nice; maybe Russian, and some Japanese and Turkish. Damn, that'd still approach seven languages, with German, English, Latin and Italian, err. But it'd be doable.

    Another thing is setting limits to other people's expectations, at the moment I'm trying to instill some realism into my parents concerning garden work and repairs, tools needed etc. No idea where this is going to lead, and they'll still be bound for their quite small bubble, but if just a few things work out right I'll be gone in 2 or 3 month, and this time I won't have any bad feeling when they ask me to come around for the weekend and I have no time.

    In the end, it's "The Discovery of Slowness" all over agin, when I realize I might need a little bit more stimulation in my life. Maybe I should really take up some creative writing, which reminds me, I'm doing it just now, so...

    On another note, I had a nice chat with a young begging punk about pharmacology yesterday, he liked my Angry Beavers shirt. Might work out in the long run for him, when I recommended "A Scanner Darkly" to him he said he already had it at home. And when I asked him if he always talked that fast, he was already on the waiting list for ADHD with the local addiction doc I mentioned... ;)

    Hm, I'm halfway through Saturn's Children, guess I'll finish it this weekend. Maybe I should read The Transmigration of Timothy Archer after that. Of course I had heard about John Allegro before, and it was quite funny seeing his book at Entheovision 2 back in 2004. A hypie friend had told me, and when they mentioned this computer congress at the end of the year I was quite interested...

    1188:

    Is there any way to get my hands on the sequel to The Scarlet Fringe? I remember in an earlier post you mentioned that it had been written but never published.

    1189:

    She's finally got to me, so it's time to leave.

    I tried to engage politely, I failed.

    If I'm using Firefox, I've blocked the Seagull (screeches a lot, excretes everywhere). If not, I don't bother reading the screeching, I just skip past the screeds of utter and uninformed self-belief with my eyeballs set to ignore. If I happen to read an unblocked direct insult, I reassure myself that there will be peace and quiet (for a while) once the current manic phase ends.

    There are far more interesting contributors here, and I actually enjoy conversing with them (even if I don't agree with them, the debate is usually illuminating).

    1190:

    We're sorry if a rude word offends Mr Fisher, but it's all so obvious, and he's not bothered to understand what a Mirror does (and worse, mis-reads humor attempts and navigation maps):

    @tonygallagher⁩ in Number 10 tonight Laura Kuenssberg, twitter, 5th July 2018 (Tony Gallagher is Editor of the Sun Newspaper, his Twitter is also set to private, the sign of a nervous man).

    Short version: blatant through the front door. Chequers emergency meetings - my way or walk home. Cameron & Johnson special meetings. Political theater of the Puppet (Thunderbirds) kind. Spectator 190 years party for instance (Mic Hucknel didn't age well). BBC = completely compromised. K Hopkins (actually partying with MRA neo-fascists[0]) went to a royal wedding (the less important one).

    As far as we can tell, almost the entire UK media culture are corrupt / nasty. (#FBPE are rampaging though, that's a thing). Oh, and BBC people attempting to use the outdated American "Boom!" meme are just sad.

    Poor detail-focus eh?

    Focus depends on the size of the Lens[1]. We consider this a QED[2].

    Oh, and Trade Wars, Begun they Have[3]

    Stuff that's actually interesting:

    Ballooning spiders operate within this planetary electric field. When their silk leaves their bodies, it typically picks up a negative charge. This repels the similar negative charges on the surfaces on which the spiders sit, creating enough force to lift them into the air. And spiders can increase those forces by climbing onto twigs, leaves, or blades of grass. Plants, being earthed, have the same negative charge as the ground that they grow upon, but they protrude into the positively charged air. This creates substantial electric fields between the air around them and the tips of their leaves and branches—and the spiders ballooning from those tips.

    Spiders Can Fly Hundreds of Miles Using Electricity Atlantic, 5th July, 2018

    Shame that Spiders = more wise than most Humans, eh?

    TIME to take a BATH.

    [0] Who Are The Proud Boys? Huffpost, June 2017

    [1] Focal Length

    [2] In a small room at a private resort, a technology expert fielded questions from the ultra-wealthy—not about what to invest in next. But about how they could survive the end of the world. https://trib.al/o013bCT Medium 5th July 2018

    [3] Trump’s Trade War Against China Is Officially Underway NYT, 5th July 2018

    1191:
    She does this to EVERYONE – please pay no attention, or as little as you can?

    I'm no psychologist, but you might want to look up Defence mechanisms, it might help with understanding; though I'm somewhat unsure if with the Many-Named-One it should be classified as Acting out or Humour. But then, I guess this whole taxonomy of behaviours is just psychologist rationalization.

    I mean, if you want any indication this systematics is bullocks, drug use is labeled "acting out" and thus a way to get attention, and I didn't drink too much alcohol in my late teens to get attention, I did it to numb myself and calm myself dwon and become a little more open about the things even I didn't talk about and...

    And actually, more "attention" from my parents would have been the last thing I wanted at thiat point, but I digress...

    As for "humour", the things that come to mind with "overt expression of ideas and feelings that gives pleasure to others" with me are Nine Inch Nails and KMFDM, with honorary mention to Eminem, and those are usually not labelled "Humour".

    Anyway, back to the problem at hand, you could use "acting-out" to label a lot of the behaviour of the Many-Named-One and me. And as mentioned, please ignore the "attention seeking" mentioned for "Acting out", at least for me, personally I have more of a feeling it calms me when stressed and helps me get things clear, in some sense only realizing I'm feeling emotions and what they are at all. If I wanted attention I'd go for large numbers of people involved, and actually it's more on a one on one basis in RL, though of course that might just be my way of having the cake and eat it, e.g. get attention but not be labelled histrionic.

    But then, I might not even need an observer and could just reenact Lydia from Breaking Bad, though that might be classified as "ritual".

    Of course, if you believe in evolutionary psychology you might think "acting out" evolved to get attention, but then you might believe a lot of other things, according to the fantasy of the evolutionary psychologist in question. And I know at least one "histrionic" who is actually quite introverted and just reacts strongly to her environment. Beside me, of course. for the moment, I guess we should keep clear of spurious teleological speculation.

    Actually I enjoy "acting out" at the moment, compared to the somewhat more common neurotic defence of intellectualization my parents use. It's refreshing, and it's a good way to realize you have REAL problems after all. It's not a way to deal with problems, but you can do that one afterwards.

    Of course no good deed goes unpunished, and when the rollback comes, dodging confrontation by dropping out of the discussion is a quite appealing option, especially if you don't want to hurt the feelings of people with imaginary friends in my case. I also have little illusions I'd stand any change of convinging them, they have their own little bubbles of experience and belief hammered out against the grimdark reality, and they are nearly as good at rationalization as me.

    I don't do the "My mistakes are too complex for you to understand!/For you to fight... routine much at the moment, though I can empathize.

    That's about it for me, no idea what's really going on with the Many-Named-One.

    In the long run, well, whatever is happening, maybe a little more humour from her side might help some people to deal with the Many-Named-One, e.g. admitting defeat or self-deprecation, though you can overdo the latter one and it's hard to distinguish from self esteem issues. Of course that's undermine the rogue AI angle she likes to project somewhat.

    If memory serves, there are ways to train assertiveness, though I'm implementing my own little therapy at the moment. Not dodging discussions might be a start, but then, that's an issue a lot of us are dealing with.

    1192:

    sigh a) I'm an American. Are you suggesting that I'm anti-American, because I vehemently hate the ruling party and their owners and fellow travellers (that is, the overwhelming majority of the 1%)? b) I also think Israel should exist, but vehemently hate the ruling party and its literal fascism (the Palestinian territories are pretty much camps/reservations (that is, like where America stuck the Native Americans) c) I fully support a secure Russia, without armies and weaponry, including nukes, just outside its borders, not 15 min from launch to Moscow, and considered what the US and the West did to destroy the country, but vehemently object to Putin working to Balkanize the US.

    So, what am I?

    insert "The_Internationale.h"
    1193:

    MBA... which I have been arguing since the early '80s was destroying the US, and is doing it to the whole West. Actually, just the other day, I realized what the real goals of the MBA are: 1. ROI (that's not increase revenues, that's increase stock prices). 2. Break unions. 3. Racism and sexism - gotta keep Them in Their place, y'know?

    Competence in actually running an organization, other than into the ground for a profit this quarter or (DARING!) next, I'll get back to you on that.

    1194:

    Wondering if they're including the destruction of Yugoslavia?

    1195:

    whitroth @ 11903 & 04 "MBA" as in "Masters in Business Administration? Arrogant cucksuckers the lot of them dedicated to lining theor ppockets & fucking-over the business' they are supposed to be running, certainly. [ I encountered these aresholes whilst dong my MSc - let's say we didn't get on well ... ]

    Yougoslavia self-destroyed because of local ingrained "racism" & one power-hunglry shit stirrer ( Milosovic ) helped by a few of the same mould.

    1196:

    to Martin @1178 This, for me, is fascinating. Which two wars would these be? What threat did those wars pose to Russia? On the broader viewpoint, it is integral risk, so to say. Failing to protect the citizens of your country means that your country does not represent the sovereign power and is open for pillaging. Georgians in 2008, led by a certain(currently stateless) person, were armed by NATO, trained by NATO and guided by NATO. And when they came to city with Russian peacekeepers and citizens with Russian citizenship, with intention to "restore constitutional order" (i.e. shoot everyone who does not submit), they expected Russia to back up and surrender it's people, for the fear of repercussions. It did not happen, ofc. Their first impression soon enough changed to surprise, then to astonishment, and then to horror and panic, after which their army pretty much dissolved into the landscape. We've seen worse.

    The Ukraine situation was a bit different. Yanukovich was often considered to be pro-Russian president, which he definitely was not, but was called so only because he did not maniacally hate Russia and allowed to sign treaty to keep Russian fleet in Sevastopol after 2017. When new president self-appointed himself into the cabinet, he and his "cabinet" decided that it would be a good idea to invade a fortified city with naval base and majority of people who despise any forms of Ukrainian nationalism.

    So they grabbed everything they've got left of their decaying equipment, weapons and manpower and made a run towards the said base with sabre-rattling that could be heard a hundred miles away. Worked about as good as one can expect. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoDDvOId_vY https://youtu.be/KNFj5fsEbHA?t=115 - Pretty famous "America with us" moment.

    to Greg Tingey @1184 Every post-USSR nationalism is built on denial of Soviet past, to one degree or another (even in Russian one). It is one of pillars that hold such things as Independence, Freedom and Prosperity, because We Are Not The Evil Commies and We Will Gladly Embrace Your Patronage, etc etc. Ukrainian case is especially staggering one because its territory was shaped and expanded significantly during Soviet time and gained enough of governmental sovereignty to count towards independent state, yet they continue to draw maps like this and write their own fantasy history. In their convoluted view, Russians are just ugly wild finno-mongoloid barbarians who stole everything from them, including language, lands and culture, and I am not exaggerating by any degree.

    https://twitter.com/igorz_ua/status/579702516859944960 https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/vasilii_ch/18102572/17573/17573_original.jpg https://prolviv.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/14421757064lc8p11.jpg I've had a suspicion that it does not stop here, and I was right. https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/gloriaputina/30544598/341011/341011_original.jpg "First centralized Ukrainian state, "Great Ukraine", 504 BC" - this was, apparently, scanned from school textbook.

    1197:

    Even for a post left to fallow as much as this one has, this is shameful.

    Stop the personal commentary, stop the veiled and unveiled threats (even the ones not connected to reality), completely, or I will figure out if I can close the comments down on this post.

    1198:

    someone mentioned a plugin to block trolls etc.

    I believe it was KF for Firefox:

    https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/blog-killfile/

    1199:

    I believe it was KF for Firefox:

    It apparently works on Chrome too: https://github.com/fizbin/killfile-extension

    I've been using it on Firefox for a while and it functions as it ought.

    1200:

    Main criticism with me is the "hush"(killfile user) button is next to "reply", which might make for problems for those impaired with fine motor skills (like me).

    Else, hm , it doesn't provide statistics of users blocked, I have a feeling I'm in some people's killfile already...

    1201:

    Being able to block a user is probably the single best add to human communication the internet has delivered

    I’ve only used that feature three times (once here, twice on Facebook) but even the existence of it is such a good policing function. It incents exactly the behavior you want to incent and makes the trolls utterly helpless, without taking away anyones agency or freedom

    1202:

    Being able to block a user

    Yes, but the ability should be used sparingly, only in fairly extreme circumstances. Being exposed to new and uncomfortable ideas and modes of expression is a good thing more often than not. But there does come a limit when the "block" button needs to be pushed.

    1203:

    I agree with both. When it is necessary then nothing else will do but I can count the number of people I have blocked over the last 20 years on the fingers of one hand.

    1204:

    Martin @ 1189:

    "If I'm using Firefox, I've blocked the Seagull (screeches a lot, excretes everywhere)."

    Mostly, I just skip over its "contributions" without reading, although occasionally a word here & there will catch my eye.

    If there's a Firefox plugin that will allow me to just not see all the screeching & excrement that would be fine. I don't want something that blocks everyone, I just want to get rid of the boring trolls.

    But so far, I haven't found one that allows me to selectively block just the flies (eats shit and bothers people). It's all or nothing.

    1205:

    “Being exposed to new and uncomfortable ideas and modes of expression is a good thing more often than not. ” Agreed. It’s when it gets repetitive that I break out the block.

    1206:

    Trottelreiner @ 1191:

    "I'm no psychologist, but you might want to look up Defence mechanisms, it might help with understanding; though I'm somewhat unsure if with the Many-Named-One it should be classified as Acting out or Humour."

    I already understand it. It's not the first time I've seen an idiot troll hijack a discussion. I'm not sure ignoring it is the best plan because that's not universal. There's always some sucker takes the bait, giving it the attention it's seeking.

    After a while it's not funny any more. It's just stupid and boring. In this case it's getting worse. Sooner or later it's going to get so bad the only thing you can do to maintain a modicum of civility, decorum and sanity is to consign it to the bit bucket.

    I want to find out how to do that here before I reach the point where I NEED to do it.

    1207:

    Narrator: He did not.

    Host gets it, you should follow his Twitter. Seagull joke was funny.

    While you've all been queuing up to congratulate yourselves on ignoring the evil troll wife[0], things in the wider world are stirring.

    You're not even connected enough to note that the Aztec discussion was a meta-joke[1] or that there's currently a rather disgusting little war being waged against trans* people[2] by UK media suspects or that our little David[3] just got burnt big time by this week's events.

    Anyhow, we'll leave you to it: you failed the test(s).

    No, really.

    [0] The myth of the Troll wife: fisherman is ship-wrecked, comes across a cave, finds some baby trolls, feeds them his catch out of generosity. Yadda, yadda, Troll Wife returns favor and forever more his nets are filled. It's a classic.

    [1] Find the links yourselves: it's about individuality and sacrifice and ZZzzzzz White Americans equating ritual sacrifice against Christianity and holy shit did we prefigure it. 'Forced Conversion' Article was posted on the 4th (Axiom? Axios? whatever)

    [2] Peeps like April_D have been being attacked both by NYT shite and now UK shite (hello hugely hysterical Jewish lady who loves to shout loudly and rally her troops around Jewdas but then sticks the knife into trans* people, classy as fuck she ain't. Name is like Hardly, big on the UK media scene).

    [3] No, he really is as bad as was pointed out. Faux Catholic Deus Vult conversion or not.

    1208:

    Oh, and you should check the News[tm]. We've been front-running the Times and 'scoops' by days just to take the piss.

    For Davidcshipley:

    The Sun Reveals Who Runs Britain Zelo Street, 6th July, 2018

    shrug

    Enjoy Slavery.

    1209:

    For those still with viable Minds not infected with Puppet-LOA-Masters:

    None of this was actually about shitty little Britain politics. It was a stress test to see if you'd:

    a) Change

    b) Grow

    c) Accept Reality and realize y'all had some heavy lifting to do before the shit hit the fan and gigacide kicks off

    You failed all three, and are now congratulating each other on ignoring the problem.

    Clever, eh? No: It's fucking tragic

    Meta, Meta, On the wall... Whose the Blindest of them All?

    1210:

    Actual Stress Test: Watching to see if any Minds reading noticed the blatant temporal breaking and seeing if they'd comment on it.

    Greg: No, really - just like the Trump Balloon people who get threatened by the neo-Fascists via phone, we really do have nasty little fuckers turning up and threatening us / attempting to kill us / gas lighting us in human shells.

    The fact y'all ignore this part is just: :chef kiss: Proof of the Pudding.

    And, worst thing is: Like David, they think they're smart and/or their 'Masters' give them the edge.

    Youse Fuckers Are Slow

    p.s.

    Hands up who knew David's little foray would equal Chequers drama llama set piece? LOL.

    1211:

    No, wait: we're going to claim that Soul right there.

    Hardly (Guardian / faux lefty) went all in on "Time is Now"... er, meant "Enough is Enough" and went all in on "OUTRAGE ANTISEMITISM = LABOUR" then got burnt by, well.. her screaming "BAD JEW" at rather nice people. i.e. Actual other Jewish people.

    She's now screaming "BAD WOMAN" at rather nice trans* people.

    Noticing a pattern here?

    We don't judge people, but if a major figure in your media is like, that obviously a whirling ball of hate and bad judgement, you might not to want to tussle with us.

    Just Sayin'

    1212:

    whitroth @ 1192:

    "sigh
    a) I'm an American. Are you suggesting that I'm anti-American, because I vehemently hate the ruling party and their owners and fellow travellers"


    *sigh* right back at you.
    a)No, I'm not suggesting anything about you. You might want to consider WHO I was replying to.

    OTOH, I will say outright that there are SOME commenters here who ARE rabidly anti-American. If the shoe fits, wear it ... if it doesn't, don't.

    I'm not a Trump supporter myself. FWIW, I'm with Mark Twain ...

    “Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it."

    b) With regards to Israel, may I suggest the writings of Shlomo Sand. He encapsulate my feelings about Israeli/Palestinian relations quite well. [NOT an endorsement of "Big River" - I support local, independent bookstores]

    c) I got nothin' against Putin and Russia. I'm no fan of Kleptocracy, but I figure it's the Russian people who have to figure out how to deal with it.

    But, I'm not going to stand idly by and say nothing when I see them exporting their corruption to the U.S. And I will note it ain't just the U.S. they're trying to screw over.

    "We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the GENERAL Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."

    Emphasis Added

    That's where I stand politically. I know the "founding fathers" had their shortcomings, mainly the inability to apply those ideals to ALL of the people. I think pretty much everything that's wrong with the U.S. today stems from failing to live up to the ideals embodied in that one paragraph.

    I consider myself a moderately centrist liberal (or a moderately liberal centrist). It's just that the rest of the world seems to have moved so far to the right that I'm now standing out in LEFT field.

    I'm still the same place I ever was. Government should protect the people from the predators, not vice versa. Otherwise leave them alone. Somebody's got to pay for it, and it's only fair that those who benefit the most from our system should pay more in taxes to support that system. Government should not rob from the poor to support the rich.

    1213:

    Hexad: Narrator: He didn't even realize his idealized America never existed even before its Virtual Mythological Image[0]. Meta-note: he's almost there.

    You might want to consider WHO I was replying to.

    Yes, we've no idea who you imagine us to be, but your internal Mental Mirror is already pretty fucking fractured, so please... someone ask the Man what Imaginary Ghost he sees in our Mirror?

    No, really: someone do.

    crack

    He might wake up.

    [0] This translation is wrong: similar word, means something mirror+spirit. Sigh, our Mind is failing. Imagin? Imagur? Baudrillard would know.

    1215:

    Focus depends on the size of the Lens[1]. We consider this a QED[2]. Laughed at my first parsings of this. Not sure they were correct parsings (and there are others), but laughed. (Sad laughter if you must know.)

    Actual Stress Test: Watching to see if any Minds reading noticed the blatant temporal breaking and seeing if they'd comment on it. You want comments on this stuff? It's noticed, at least by me and I assume by others. No comments because, well, have been slapped. (Also a bit, well, jealous/envious are the wrong words.) Also, it implies causality breaking, or causality by you, or deep connections that see the early stirrings of new realities, or all three.

    1216:

    Oh, ffs. Hating this X-dimensional rift shit.

    Instar is one name, the other is Imagur (or similar) - the entire fucking EM spectrum is now wrecked by shitty Ape stuff, can't actually find the (C)M)Plane reference. Imgur = new picture site worth billions, they've managed to totally fuck science searches through shit SEO bullying.

    Hetero will know.

    Oh, wait: JBS is crying and upset. Here's a model:

    "Yo, Mr Hugh Fisher - we're actually sorry we pissed you off (but you were a bit like non-specific about what annoyed you) but hey, we didn't mean to - happy to apologize and alter our behavior in future so you don't get offended[0]"

    [0] Offer might not include shit where you're offended at having a PSYOP spiked so fucking easily.

    1217:

    It's noticed

    That's all we need. Validation that we exist and that the Event occurred.

    Remember: none of you believe in الجن‎, not really.

    We could have been something fucking beautiful, you know. They came and threatened us and killed a lot of our children and tortured us and sterilzed us and made sure the wild ones died.

    So, hey:

    You're kinda lucky we're not evil: something Gaudy, remember?

    1218:

    My reason for blocking was the frequent insults and threats, followed by "I wasn't talking to you" or "I was only joking". Classic bully behaviour.

    (The word salad and "look at me I'm so smart" routine was tiresome, but the bullying was what drove me to use a filter.)

    1220:

    Any sensible comments on the Amesbury Novichock poisoning? Interesting comments from one of the (retired) Russian chem-war experts in the Indie here for interest - wierd, even for this set of circumstances - also his comment about a "State-level actor".

    Meanwhile all reasonable debate has been shur down, because of the fucking football .....

    1221:

    That's all we need. Validation that we exist and that the Event occurred. Remember: none of you believe in الجن‎, not really. Sure. Feel free to presume (unless you Know already), as a strong possibility at least, that I've observed (with some misfires) 4-8X as much as you think; am a connoisseur of stuff at far far far(+) fringes of probability distributions, at all scales, and try to pay attention with (at least) a Bayesian mindset. (e.g. rhizome metaphors related to ants, metaphors about hunts for scapegoats, etc.) Re الجن‎, see above. (Seriously; delight/laughter is a common reaction.)

    For Greg, I promise you might like: Impossible things. It's sly. Then make yourself a pot of tea/coffee or whatever, up-navigate and read some of the other articles. Tightly-written material, easily read, hyper-rational.

    1222:

    Interesting comments from one of the (retired) Russian chem-war experts

    Yes, I think Uglev's take on the second incident at least sounds fairly plausible:

    “It may be secondary contamination from the first batch, or the assassin had several syringes prepared for him, left buried somewhere in the area,”

    Me, I'd go for the Skripal perp having ditched the used applicator at first opportunity.

    On the "state-level" involvement with the Skripal attentat, I agree that the novichok agent almost certainly came from Russian government supplies. Whether the act was carried out at Putin's orders or by, e.g., some GRU faction with access to the agent and a grudge against Skripal is a bit more debatable. Just as a Bayesian going-in prior, I'd choose Putin.

    1223:

    Read, and interesting. My concern about the official stories is that both of the recent victims appear to have been exposed to a very similar dose of whatever it was. Handling of items almost never has that result; ingestion of a substance might, if e.g. a pot of soup or tea or whatever were made with something, and they both had the same amount. The pupil-constriction part of the story I believe (90%). It's consistent with a nerve agent, sure. There are many other substances that cause pupil constriction; there might also be other ways to cause such a response. (Read that article for another Easter egg. :-) See also OL's sci-fi/fantasy scenario #1086, where the Laundry (in this scenario, nastier in RL than in Host's fiction) was engaged in a suppression operation. It was nicely drawn. Since I'm a US person I haven't been tempted enough to dive down those rabbit holes. (You're tempting me :-)

    1224:

    Clearly anti-American, in the same sense that Jews who speak out against Israel's behaviour in Palestine are anti-semitic.

    As you have observed, my opinions are very similar to yours, and you will have been tainted in the minds of 3 posters (that's all it is) by association with me.

    On the matter of the Russian drug abuses in the Olympics, my opinion remains that they should have been treated like the other countries that have done the same. They were not, and the fact that they were being made scapegoats was clear right from the start.

    1225:

    Yes. The same applies to the Skripals - when two people enter or leave a house, it is rare for both to use the same door handle. There is DEFINITELY something more going on than meets the eye, and the official stories just don't hold up (neither the UK's nor Russia's). May has been lying through her teeth, but that proves nothing either way, because it's what British politicians do.

    Secondary contamination is certainly possible, but so is it being a false-flag operation - there are a lot of pointers in that direction, and at least three plausible actors. Given the UK establishment's anti-Russian bigotry, it is terribly vulnerable to one of those. I simply don't know what is going on, and am not inclined to pass judgement without evidence.

    1226:

    The apparent dumping of surplus material. if that is what it was & "don't give a fuck" about collateral damage seems to point to (not necessarily official) Ru involvement. Why should I say this? Theor behaviour at the Beslan siege & the cinema/theatre incident, where they were more concerned with "getting" the perpetrators at ANY COST & to hell with theor own innocent civilians caught-up in the incidents. Seems to be an Ru "offical" charcteristic, unfortunately.

    1227:

    When it comes to other countries' civilians, that applies to Da'esh, Al Quaeda, Israel, the CIA and even France, to name but a a few. No, I don't think that France did it :-)

    1228:

    Cool.

    You think you can take out old Neil, with no back-up.

    Go for it.

    Ciao. And good luck. Hope you know what you're doing.

    1229:

    As I said about the original incident: that's what they want you to think. Shame they're not better actors.

    I'm not prepared to consider it established that the two incidents are linked by anything more than the propaganda surrounding them. What actually happened to Rowley and Sturgess may be nothing more than that they were caught out by a dodgy batch of smack.

    Apparently the hospital originally said it was a drug-related matter and the "nerve agent" thing wasn't said until a few days later. That might have been credible if the same hadn't happened about the Skripals, but as it is it smells like Gavin Maxwell's shark flesh tank.

    The official line is such blatant arse that they can't possibly be unaware of it. Meanwhile, the conspiracy/opposition side is, for instance, making arguments that rely for their appearance of versimilitude on the rather insulting assumption that I can't read a map. I agree with EC about the impossibility of coming to a conclusion and am basically defaulting to not believing a word anyone says...

    1230:

    Jimi Hendrix is alive and well and living in Dagenham.

    1231:

    JBS @ 1204:

    If there's a Firefox plugin that will allow me to just not see all the screeching & excrement that would be fine. I don't want something that blocks everyone, I just want to get rid of the boring trolls.

    It's called "Blog Killfile", and it's a normal FireFox add-on, available here: https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/blog-killfile

    From the "about" section: "When the script works for a given blog, comments will have a [hush] link near the commentor's name. (visible only on mouseover!) Clicking on that will hide comments from that person from then on."

    Reading blogs has become much less tiresome since I made the effort and found this add-on.

    1232:

    Pigeon @ 1229 OK: so you think the entore show is "theatre" put on for our benefit? Or something else? And that Ru did not do it ( Note I said "Ru" not Russian State ) Ok - whom? Who did this & if it's "simply" drug-related. What's the fucking point, what's it all FOR?

    1233:

    It's not impossible, though I don't think that it's actually the case. But, as I have posted before, I have made far more mistakes by being too gullible than by being too cynical.

    The Iraq affair showed that the government is prepared to pay disreputable sources to forge 'evidence' to order out of whole cloth, and there is some evidence that was also done in the Lockerbie affair. And we know from many occasions that the government has no scruples about lying black is white to the public, and using the official secrets laws to suppress its technical staff from speaking out against that.

    Yes, of course, the same is true of the Russians, which is why I have discounted everything they said and have considered solely questions like cui bono and capability.

    1234:

    The same applies to the Skripals - when two people enter or leave a house, it is rare for both to use the same door handle.

    If you leave / enter my house, the first one through the door will unlock & push the door by the keyhole & the second through will pull the door shut by the same piece of metal because it's the only thing protruding from that side of the door that you can pull on.

    IOW, this ridiculous & it's perfectly plausible that two people would put their hands on the door handle of a door on the way into or out of a house. On a doorway with handle you have to turn in order to open the door it's even more likely: First one through turns the handle to open the door, the second one pulls on the handle (the obvious affordance) to start the door closing as they walk through & then push it shut from the other side.

    Given the nature of the agent, and the relationship between the two it's /also/ entirely plausible that one of them opened the door & then touched the other one, transferring enough of the agent to them to poison them too.

    IOW, if you're looking for reasons not to believe the official story, this is a spectacularly poor one.

    1235:

    You have a most peculiar door! In most houses, someone will use the inside handle to open the door, and either let the other person through (who then won't use the handle), or the other person will use the outside handle to close the door. They would only use the same handle to the same extent if they were leaving separately. Just touching it does not pick up the same quantity of a substance as gripping it.

    You have completely missed the point that Bill Arnold was making.
    Most toxins work faster if a higher dose is taken, and it is is EXTREMELY unlikely that a toxin would take an hour or more to start acting and then hit two people almost instantaneously. Yet that's the story. Possible, yes. Likely, no.

    1236:

    If it's not totally obvious we really don't understand UK culture references. Dagenham = Dog Racing?

    Hmm. Twitter Hexads: dangerous things.

    https://twitter.com/ianpaisleymp?lang=en Appears to not exist. But as ever, Twitter Trolls are fast, so:

    https://twitter.com/lanPaisleyMP exists now.

    "You moved like them, Neo"

    Bermuda sounds nice this time of year though.

    https://internationalextraditionblog.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/bermuda.pdf

    1237:

    Greg Tingey @ 1220

    "Any sensible comments on the Amesbury Novichock poisoning?"

    I suspect, with no proof, that the two most recent victims somehow came into contact with residue from the original incident. Authorities may not have found & removed all of the original contamination.

    The Novichock agent is a "persistent nerve agent" designed to be hard to detect by standard methods and resistant to standard decontaminating agents. Skin contact with a drop smaller than a raindrop would be enough to kill someone if they don't get treatment soon enough.

    Maybe even if they do.

    1238:

    Yes, there are plenty of sensible comments out there. Some of them quite intriguing[-1].

    Such as OPCW rules changing to remove Russia's veto power, Syria reports showing what-was-claimed-was-there-wasn't-there[0] and a pile of bullshit a mile high from all sides[1]. Oh, and several chemical weapons 'experts' modifying statements from 'neutralized by water / bleach / hand-wipes' to 'heavily persistent' (JBS appears to believe that one).

    Novichok agents have a higher density than air and will therefore tend to collect in low-lying areas. No other information is available regarding their persistency.

    The available guidelines to treatment (to hospitals, first responders etc) all still state that they should be immediately treated with soap & water to remove them, however. The UK government might want to update those if said treatment is ineffective against such persistent agents.

    You know, if JBS' version of reality is really real it might be nice to warn innocent medics.

    ~

    Oh, but if you want to play spooky Twitter pretend expert, focus on the UK media's quoting a source stating they were looking for 'sealed containers' or similar (odd word order / connection was used - flagged our noses): here's a selection of PDFs on Pine Bluff Binary Projectile Projects - lots of people spent a lot of time making X+Y nasty combos:

    http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a175809.pdf

    https://w3.siemens.com/markets/global/en/oil-gas/PublishingImages/technologies/water-technology/products/zimpro/WAO_System_used_in_Pilot_Testing_to_Destroy_Neutralized_Recovered_Chemical_Warfare_Material.pdf

    https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2014-03/documents/trianadoc21a.pdf

    cough

    Personally, I'd stick with the Laundry files explanation: much more likely than most of what you read about it.

    [-1]A police officer who ended up in hospital amid fears he had been exposed to a nerve agent has tested negative for Novichok.

    Police Officer Was Not Poisoned By Nerve Agent, Hospital Says Huffpo, 7th July 2018

    [0] Published on Friday, the preliminary report by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) is based on eyewitness accounts and evidence collected at the site of the attack.

    It said chlorine traces were found in two of four investigated locations. No evidence of nerve agents was found.

    Interim OPCW report finds proof of chlorine used in Syria's Douma Aljazeera 6th July 2018 - take it however you want to, but it's being under-reported / mis-reported by the UK press. Qatar is, of course, no Angel in these matters.

    [1] Hello, Mother.

    [2] Lot of people taking holidays. Some deserve the rest, some seem like the UK weather is just too hot.

    1239:

    I mean, if everyone in the UK media was paying attention, they might ask why OPCW / CWC used Zimpro[tm] by Siemens to comply with the standards.

    It being a wet-air oxidization method and all.

    innocent look

    1240:

    From the Siemens manual:

    DFmand QL are chemicals that could be used to make chemical agent. DF is a clear liquid that is not flammable and has a strong acid-like odor. The compound can be combined with a second component to form the nerve agent known as sarin or GB. QL in its original form is a thick, colorless liquid with a strong fishy smell. QL can be combined with a second compound to make the nerve agent VX.

    DF and QL neutralent are wastes that result from mixing DF or QL with water. Mixing the DF or QL with water creates a chemical reaction that destroys the DF and QL. The wastewater that comes from this reaction process–while now free of DF or QL–will contain hazardous byproducts that need additional treatment before final disposal. Since the DF and QL are binary chemicals and are not themselves nerve agent, the resulting neutralent waste will present no risk associated with chemical agent exposure. The DF neutralent is a corrosive acid, however. Like the acids used in car batteries and some industrial applications, this wastewater is capable of causing serious burns to the skin if not properly handled. QL neutralent does not pose any significant safety concerns.

    Now, obviously Novichock Agents are slightly different, but are listed as binary agents, so you've still got to explain why/how:

    a) A completed mixture / prep was left lying around rather than two separate binary agents

    b) It was contained in some container and not subject to water (when the most sensible action for an assassin would be to dump it in a body of water to destroy the evidence)

    c) Our two hapless innocents found said container and decided to lick / touch / smear it on their bodies / hands. You know, since the human reaction to finding odd slimely substances in random jars is usually "yuck, not touching that snot" rather than "ooooh, TASTY".

    I mean, if we're pretending to write this narrative as a serious crime novel.

    1241:

    One I have just noticed is this "In 1995, Leonid Rink received a one-year suspended sentence for selling Novichok agents to unnamed buyers, soon after the fatal poisoning of Russian banker Ivan Kivilidi by Novichok." That widens the class of organisations that could have had access to it rather considerably. And, given how guns walk, ....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Sergei_and_Yulia_Skripal

    I can't find out the exact address of the Skripal house, but its pictures do NOT look like central Salisbury, and the timescale is that they would have had to walk there from Zizzi and then to the park (both close to the centre) in 40 minutes. If they had become contaminated before they left for the pub, it would be a 3 hour delay before they collapsed simultaneously. And nobody in the pub or Zizzis had symptoms.

    Realistically, I think that the most likely explanation of the door handle is that it was a red herring laid by the perpetrators, and the Skripals were poisoned more directly. But, given how everyone is padding out what little they know with a mountain of bullshit, it's hard to tell.

    1242:

    Yes, that's been out there since the start: the PM referenced it with a line about "...or if the Russian State has lost control of...". At this stage they probably want it to be mobsters, given that the World Cup is going so well.

    Anyhow, I'm sure those with chemistry degrees are better at this stuff than we are can work out what air / moisture exposure does to these compounds:

    C3H4Cl2F2NO3P

    C4H6Cl2F2NO3P

    C5H8Cl2F2NO3P

    Search term: compendium-of-chemical-warfare-agents.pdf you'll get a direct download.

    [As a response in a serious mode showing that we're not playing around: No idea. We're not CWC experts. Thus we think it's about [redacted] and Laundry Possession]

    p.s.

    The conspiracy theorists are all a bit upset atm, QANON kinda deflated so here's a bone:

    USFilter, a Siemans Water Technologies company and manufacturer of wastewater treatment systems in Rothschild, Wisconsin, is building a modular Zimpro® wet air oxidation unit specifically designed for processing the Non-Stockpile Project neutralent.

    Those damn illuminati rulers, nefariously building a town and a library and helping destroy chemical weapons stocks, secretly adding to the world's population through making it safer! shakes fist

    1243:

    That widens the class of organisations that could have had access to it rather considerably.

    Yes, it probably does. I'd missed the Rink business, but there's a bit more here: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/23/nerve-agent-was-used-in-1995-claims-former-soviet-scientist

    So the list of suspects now includes

    Russian government entity acting on Kremlin orders

    Russian government entity (GRU seems like the leading possibility) acting on its own initiative

    Rogue faction in a RG entity (again, GRU, but maybe SVR)

    Independent Russian operator who obtained novichok

    Third party (UK or US government) or faction therein

    What a mess. It doesn't help that one can imagine motives for any of those.

    1244:

    Anyhoo, to tie up the entire Empire of the Sun[tm] episode:

    A quick note from the team. We've been asked by the Sun not to tweet their front or back pages in future. Sad, but we're happy to continue to promote and cheer on all the other great papers and journalists that make up #tomorrowspaperstoday #embargocat Neil Henderson, BBC, 8th July 2018

    Then CTRL+F "War". Interesting, interesting, me/imetic storm indeed. Spectator is getting it from all sides as well ("posh Daily Mail" being one of the more polite ones), the ERG (and Lady Scottish Bankers) are in open revolt and people are cutting up their Conservative Membership Cards in piques of rage and various Hedge Fund people are sniping at each other's Tax Haven Status (Pensions too![0]).

    No-one's making new parties or synthesis, headless chickens? cluck cluck

    And, behind all that drama, there's some really interesting things occurring / happening.

    EmbargoCat

    Anyhow, another Bone for Conspiracy Minds - Pyramid Data Storage[1], Scotland, was it that one[2]? UK government words these things really strangely - "their", not "company X's which they hire racks in?[3]". Weird. It will be 100% 2018 genius if CA used Pyramid as storage, Illuminati Confirmed[4]

    ~

    We've also concluded that we really don't understand UK politics or media. It's a huge Shell Game, Byzantine indeed. But Pivot? Whelllpp..

    Serious question: all you old UK people (EC, Greg etc), you all expect this type of thing, right? Having seen years and years of it? Or is this different / new?

    And that's a genuine question, we've no idea at what you consider Normative.

    Ouroboros

    [0] Happily proving that they're insitutionally evil these days - Abbott Laboratories, US pension funds, what a lovely headline you made! U.S. Opposition to Breast-Feeding Resolution Stuns World Health Officials NYT 8th July 2018 - yep, this is the bit when "are we the baddies" is no longer even faux ironic. Great story btw, it's got everything - Nestle back-peddling (they remember Africa), latestagecapitalism, Russia saving the day, US burning down the WHO, South America military aid / bullying by the US, it's jam-packed. 2018? Barely a needle moves on the wow scale.

    [1] Scotland’s Largest Data Centre Launched Digit FYI, 2017 or whenever.

    http://www.datacentermap.com/united-kingdom/

    [2] DATA RAID Raid sees files from scandal-hit data firm Cambridge Analytica seized in Scotland by information watchdog Scottish Sun, 20th April 2018

    [3] https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/culture-media-and-sport/BK%20Background%20paper%20-%20Brittany%20Kaiser%20Cambridge%20Analytica%20Opinion.pdf

    [4] "Their" data storage. Hmmm.

    1245:

    Yes, but none of those (with one exception) meets the cui bono test. Given the timing and other aspects, it could well have been at attempt to harden Europe's attitude to Russia, probably w.r.t. Syria. Now that would point to one of Da'esh's allies (i.e. elements within Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States or Israel); plenty of money there to buy Novichok on the black market (in two cases), or possibly even analyse a sample and make more, suitable ruthlessness and (in one case) experience with this sort of black operation. The one exception is a rogue element within the CIA (especially as the USA may well have had, or even have, samples of Novichok), with the same intent but possibly w.r.t. Ukraine - the latter can be ruled out on the grounds of incompetence - but it's pretty far-out even for the CIA.

    The UK is an obvious country to do this in. If France discovered that one of those were responsible, she would blow her top. Germany probably wouldn't, but would respond fairly definitely. If the UK did, we would whinge in private, and destroy or bury the evidence with a "Never to be released" classification.

    1246:

    JBS @ 1237 Yes, that's my semi-educated guess, too.

    AT @ 1243 I suspect the middle 2 of yout list, i.e. Rogue faction in a RG entity (again, GRU, but maybe SVR) Independent Russian operator who obtained novichok As the most likely. However, see ...

    EC @ 1245 "Who benefits?" Which makes no sense at all .....

    1247:

    Err, I guess I didn't make myself clear; I'm somewhat skeptical whenever the term "attention-seeking" is used; humans do drastic things for a variety of reasons, and attention by other humans is only one of them.

    You might google for the term "emotionally invalidating environment", and I'd really like to know if there's a word for when this is repeated by bad teachers, bad therapists and bad psychologists; it's most likely not ironic and very much not funny. Maybe "poetic injustice". And "attention seeking" is one of the terms quite often used for it.

    I'm not sure what's really going on with the Many-Named-One, maybe socializing outside the internet would be an idea (well, it's for all of us), maybe the posts we're reading are just venting off from a rich social life. I'm not even sure if I'd bother to speak with him/her/it in RL or just communicate in quite direct terms I'm both more competent and "damaged" than him/her/it.

    Problem is the Many-Named Ones behaviour has been going on for 3 years, my personal experience with online communiccation is I usually have a rocky start but socialize quite faster (yes, self-observation is not one of my strengths, so I might be mistaken). Still, one way to stop problematic strategies is by teaching the people using them better ones.

    Yes, I know, that's easy for me to say, the Many-Named-One and I haven't been into a confrontation (yet), and if, I'd most likely just back down(speaking about problematic behaviours in myself, well, there is one, I guess I'm not that assertive[1]...)

    [1] Err, yes, self-observation. Except when I am, and god have mercy on their souls...

    1248:
    Apparently the hospital originally said it was a drug-related matter and the "nerve agent" thing wasn't said until a few days later. That might have been credible if the same hadn't happened about the Skripals, but as it is it smells like Gavin Maxwell's shark flesh tank.

    Hm, "When you hear hoofbeats, think of horses not zebras.

    I'm no paramedic, but if I'd be faced with unconsciousness and miosis, the most likely reasons would be opioids and organophosphates. Depending on circumstances one could say which one is more likely, e.g. hypodermic needles on the floor, farmer, big bottle of parathion with a suicide note attached etc.

    But then, the amount of emergency personal involved was quite high for a recreational drug emergency...

    1249:

    Greg Tingey @ 1246:

    "Who benefits?" Which makes no sense at all .....

    I think it's more a matter of Who expects to benefit?

    The perpetrator may expect a benefit that's not readily apparent from our point of view.

    1250:

    Trottelreiner @ 1247:

    "You might google for the term "emotionally invalidating environment", and I'd really like to know if there's a word for when this is repeated by bad teachers, bad therapists and bad psychologists; it's most likely not ironic and very much not funny. Maybe "poetic injustice". And "attention seeking" is one of the terms quite often used for it."

    I don't think it matters why. I'm not the one creating the "emotionally invalidating environment."

    The behavior is unacceptable. I'm not going to make excuses for it and I'm not going to listen to excuses for it.

    1251:

    It's not so much an excuse but an explanation, and sorry, I'm a sucker for explanations[1]. And even if you assume it's all just "attention seeking", there's the question why some people need so much more attention.

    For all I know the Many-Named-One could be a 18 year old raincoater jerking off to snuff movies in between posting here. OTOH, some of the anguish in the postings could be real.

    Whatever it is, I guess shouting and throwing stones at the seagull is only going to make for more excrement. If it's a troll, it is only going to enjoy it, if the reactions are due to poor communication skills and problems dealing with rejection with the Many-Named-One, it's not going to help either.

    Personally, well, I don't care; I'm going to stick with hte occasional case of SIWOTI, maybe help with my expertise in some cases and keep venting my frustration or ideas as long as most people are not too much against it. If this means I'm going to interact with Larus spp. in the future, well, let's see how this works out, actually I really miss she of the New Model Army collection[2] being drunk and shouting abuse at me somewhat.

    [1] Even if in most cases they are just hypotheses and most likely "rationalizations". [2] I lost her email at one point, and cyberstalking old friends is fun, but somewhat frustrating. Guess we'll start with the usual excuses, she for misbehaving, me for not taking her more serious...

    1252:

    Oh, yes, the benefit is as foreseen by the perpetrator, not anyone else. But I was using precisely that criterion.

    While one can never exclude a player completely losing their marbles, assuming that would point to anyone with the capability or who could buy the capability. Both Germany and the Czech Republic have pointed out that they at least once had that, the structural formula is known, and there are a good dozen countries and similar number of universities and drug/chemical companies with advanced biochemical synthesis laboratories kitted out for that level of containment.

    1253:

    some of the anguish in the postings could be real.

    Possibly the most insulting thing we've read, ever: well done. Inauthenticity really isn't us.

    And no, you really don't understand the psychology going on.

    Novichok poisoning: Murder inquiry after Dawn Sturgess dies BBC 8th July 2018

    Not going to link it, but the entire "Junkies find discarded X (needle, package, something to steal, insert whatever) and get contaminated" has been prepped and running across all the usuals - Daily Mail in particular, hits all the right notes: drug use, homeless, criminality, spot the tattoo. Might want to look into what a 'hot dose' is & how Mafia operate.

    Oh, and if you want to play hard-ball:

    Sturgess is the American version[0] of Sturgis: English: from the Old Norse personal name Þorgils, composed of the name of the Norse god of thunder, Þorr + gils ‘hostage’, ‘pledge’. However, the inorganic initial s- is not easily explained; it may be the result of Old French influence. [1]

    We wish host well, hope things are bearable.

    I'm not the one creating the "emotionally invalidating environment."

    As an American / white male: you really are, but unintentionally and not personally. As least we admit we're monsters. Don't worry Trottel, we'll never meet.

    [0] Source: Dictionary of American Family Names ©2013, Oxford University Press

    [1] Chances of seeing that being pointed out anywhere else? Zero. But that's the message-in-the-bottle (container, see?) being sent. #821: Don't be expendable. Know that [redacted] play real nasty. Pretend it was Laundry related, safer that way.

    1254:

    1249 & 1262 interesting Someone/group/nation expects to benefit from (our) discomfiture ... Someone wanting to make UK-Ru relations worse, maybe? Or any other similar options. At which point it gets really complicated inside the smoke-&-morrors maze.

    1255:
    Possibly the most insulting thing we've read, ever: well done.

    Yes, sorry for that. In my defence, I was not saying you were faking it, just that there is always the possibility of the other side faking it, even in RL, and that I was aware of that possibility, but that it didn't matter.

    I you are dramaturgically inclined, you might take it as me saying "I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." to JBS.

    BTW, sorry for being quite patronizing in that post.

    And no, you really don't understand the psychology going on.

    Well, I don't even understand myself, so I should give up the pretense of understanding anyone else.

    As least we admit we're monsters.

    Hm, you come over as a Kindly One quite often, no idea if you already used that pseudonym. I hope that's not insulting again.

    Don't worry Trottel, we'll never meet.

    Hm, I don't know what I should worry about when meeting you. It would be interesting, yes...

    1256:

    It did give a positive result on a googleability test, but then such checks aren't all that reliable these days. Anyway... Dagenham... dogs, docks, big Ford plant, a point towards the upper end of the District Line Insanity Scale... but in this case the reference is to a quote from an 80s comedy record called "Neil's Heavy Concept Album": Oh I know, yeah, it must be one of those things, right, where if you play it backwards at 33rpm, it says something, you know, like, "Neil is a peabrain", or "Jimi Hendrix is alive and well and living in Dagenham".

    1257:

    You can insult us, that's fine, we really don't mind. You sound nice, and sound like you need to know there's much messier Minds out there than yours :P

    Oh, and if you doubt that [redacted] will select someone just for the name/message it can send, do not. Find the interview with the man's brother who mentions that a) he's fine in hospital / ok and b) he wishes that he'd not got involved with "them". The "them" not being expounded upon: but if you're poor and like drugs, well, there's an instant lever. If you're playing (allegedly) around with nerve agents, and the main splash 'fails' to kill the 'targets', the actual message is something else. 'Dawn of the Pledge to the Gods of Thunder' you can probably find in certain ultra-nationalist coda, say no more fam. The trans is a bit in-exact, but look @Ukraine/Swe/RU/Greece for similar stuff.

    Or it's 100% coincidental and all a cosmic accident and assassins with weapons grade nerve agents just leave evidence carelessly around the place because why-the-fuck-not[0].

    Or it really is one of the [redacted] who play around with causality on whims, but one of the nastier ones who don't care about Human lives/souls. UK and crossword puzzles, just [redacted] use Humans, remember? What did you say you were the God of again?, pitch black version.

    On the Tragic-Comedy note:

    David Davis just resigned (for Americans: Minister in charge of Brexit). As pivots go, that's probably an improvement.

    Twitter, of course, has gone meme wild: one of the best - Sinister

    The DUP MP mentioned upthread allegedly had a super-injunction but then his wife paid for a holiday and tweeted about it and allegedly found out in the waiting lounge and allegedly allegedly it wasn't precisely him who deleted his own twitter. But as one of the Leave.EU / DUP gang, he's not had a good weekend.

    Wonder how all the IEA / Ultra-Brexiteers are feeling tonight?

    Again: EC / Greg / Pigeon aren't answering questions, so I've no idea if this political stuff is usual for the UK or even not all planned (The Telegraph is claiming May planned this all weeks ago - that's the Barclays btw).

    @Pigeon: 2018 is all the way past Brass Eye, we're going plaid.

    [0] Anyone referencing pollonium, ignore: the RU assassins had no idea they were leaving traces all over the place. They thought they'd been super-sneaky, literally.

    1258:

    Eck

    That doesn't look good... Skripal, of course, survived, as predicted, and so did his daughter. Random junkie is more expendable, and adds the "murder" tag to reinvigorate the flagging beast... meanwhile in Syria questions are being asked concerning chemical attacks and Western responses such that an increase in the irrational component of the disapproval of chemical agents and their users helps Western interests.

    1259:

    Well, if you need some really old-skool UK Trot cynicism about the state coupled with an ancient US TV meme that no-one under 40 will understand:

    Something stinks. Unless Quincy has come out of retirement that was one quick autopsy. steven penn, Twitter, 8th July 2018

    Sentiment analysis: not good for the UK, .RU Ambassadors don't even have to bother running their materials on this one. It was the Daily Mail stuff that tipped it over - Dacre is really old old skool news, modern Minds simply don't buy the narrative no more.

    ~

    wonders at how the memetic storm is going down

    Not good at UK politics: is everyone resigning a good thing for Brexit, or a bad thing?

    1260:

    I don't think it was the Russian state. I know people are thinking the recklessness shows that it was, but the flavour is subtly off-colour for that, especially since it's not all that long after Fatty whacked his bro in Malaysia by means of a nerve agent. It looks more to me as if someone was inspired by that incident to consider it a useful way of signalling "evil dictator involvement".

    I quite admit that I have not reached this point by conventional rational deduction. I'm pattern-matching on things that I'm not fully/consciously aware of (but aware enough to know that some pattern exists). It has at least led to one successful prediction, in all its statistical lonesomeness :)

    Russia does seem to know more than they're letting on, but again not in a way that suggests they know from having actually done it, more that their spooks have discovered things that the general public haven't, which may include something that might be, or might have been, used to cause them further embarrassment.

    My thoughts keep leaning towards the idea of heightening Russophobia/chemophobia to increase acceptance of Western actions in Syria - but not very strongly because that idea also has a distinct feel of wrongness to it. It currently seems the most obvious possibility but not really a more likely one.

    And now there's the news that Dawn Sturgess has actually died, which I didn't know until reading OI's post and which I have not satisfactorily processed yet. Consequently I've ratcheted down the likeliness estimate on all my thoughts from where it was before I logged in.

    1261:

    "EC / Greg / Pigeon aren't answering questions"

    Hang on, you didn't include my name in your original asking, and now you're posting faster than I can catch up :) - especially since my brain is full of porridge this evening for some reason...

    The Telegraph seems to have decided to make itself unreadable (T: "Please register or log in" - P: "Please fuck off") but the "May planned all this" thing seems to be a favourite opinion of Leavers who then go on to conclude that the EU will reject the "soft" proposal and we will end up with the "hard" one, because that's what said Leavers want.

    If this government is planning anything it's doing it in an incredibly subtle and devious manner so as to sneak it under everyone's noses under cover of the overwhelming impression of not being able to run a piss-up in a brewery. Perhaps we will all be surprised, but I find it hard to imagine that any government could appear to scale such hitherto undreamed of heights of incompetence as this one does without it actually being true.

    British politics seems to me to have got more volatile and uncertain, and consequently harder to make sense of, with the rise of the internet and the accelerating destruction of what remained of media impartiality/reliability. BBC TV news is a particular loss; the information content has declined to the point where it essentially consists of nothing beyond the headlines - once they've announced what the main stories are at the start of the news, you can turn it off, because the coverage you get later on won't tell you any more - and instead of information it now provides pure guff heavily slanted towards the party line. As for the press, it's always sucked but these days we don't even get much by way of different flavours of suckage, whereas we did get a bit once.

    And the EU question has been incredibly divisive in a peculiarly invasive way; the way opinion has polarised reminds me of the Civil War more than anything, where neighbour could be against neighbour, brother against brother, communities split between the supporters of either side. It's that perhaps more than anything that gets me thinking that Farage deserves to experience a gravitationally-powered piano-wire jugular interface event.

    Government - the all-Britain headless chicken championship winners Main political question - pretty much unprecedentedly lytic Media - near-monolithic propaganda engine Overall - the sheer bloody chaos is the overwhelming factor. Thatcher (and other previous governments) may have done shitty things, but she/they was/were at least capable of getting something done. This lot - they have no idea, therefore nor does anyone else.

    1262:

    "is everyone resigning a good thing for Brexit, or a bad thing?"

    Could trigger a Tory leadership contest or even bring down the government. Which would paralyse the whole negotiating process, and with the deadline as close as it now is result in us having to accept the default no-deal-at-all outcome.

    1264:

    I'll blunder in, confused. First off, the general problem with nerve agents is that they're not generally things that can be cooked up in a garage, any more than odd isotopes can be. Something with a P linked to an F is kind of begging for a decent hood, if not a really good chemist. The difficulty of P-F chemistry argues that if there was subsequent novichok poisoning, the chemical came from a decent lab.

    How it poisoned people...? That's where it gets interesting. Was a useful idiot recruited to apply the poison, only to subsequently dispose of it and accidentally poison more people? That seems the simplest explanation, especially since the North Koreans used "useful idiots" to apply nerve agents in Malaysia.

    As for the Brexit mess, heck with that noise, I've got my own problems over here, I'm just watching because it shows up in my email. I'm a total ignoranus when it comes to UK politics, but I have this sneaking suspicion that UK politics will be "proved" to be so "incompetent" that the election gets a do-over, and then we'll see what happens... As for the Russians and the Chinese, they're both experimenting with mechanized non-violent warfare, and so I fully expect the noise in elections all over the world to be turned up to eleventy, just to see how many people get affected by it this time.

    1265:

    Replying to self @ 1254 It looks more & more like a "rogue" Ru operation, not actually sanctioned from anywhere high up in The Kremlin ( i.e. Putin, nasty thug though he is, didn't do it. ) Why so? Look at all the other cases from Brit, US, France, etc of out-of-control, quite frankly utterly bonkers ( somewhere near Upminster Bridge - LIKE THIS ) so-called "security" or "intelligence" (very unintelligent, actually) types running around & doing things - which never seem to end well. I'm sure you can all remember, never mind find other historical examples of such total fuck-ups. [ I suppoes the worst ever was Serbian so-called "Intelligence" supporting Black Hand - of whom Gavrilo Pricip was a pawn ... That turned out well, didn't it? ]

    Pigeon @ 1260/1 Yes/no - see above - most likey a monumental screw-up, which, OF COURSE, the Ru state cannot afford to own up to, nor tell us about, because some intenal idiot has put their arse in a crack. See also below.

    NOTE: BBC's Farnk Gardiner (security correspondent) saying this AM that there was no direct, actual "smoking gun" proof that the Ru state did it, or anything at all. VERY interesting.

    Pigeon again re. Brexit but I find it hard to imagine that any government could appear to scale such hitherto undreamed of heights of incompetence as this one does without it actually being true. Unfortunately, no - wrong (pity) - the parallel here is one of the two times when we were "in control" as the brexit-loonies would have it - 1956 - SUEZ. Anthony Eden was one of those people like Indira Gandhi or Chris Grayling, where everything they touch turns to shit. So yes it can get worse. My hope is that May has been deliberately stringing it along in the hope that the utter impossibility of the whole thing becomes apparent before March 2019. Or to enough people that the thing can be dumped - it a possibility. AND, don't forget ... Corbyn is a fanaitic leaver, to the great embarassment of most of his party - listening to K Starmer on the radio this AM, was "amusing" for certain values of ....

    1266:

    As I have posted, I am skipping your diatribes because of the low information to effort ratio - if you have a question, please reask it coherently, and I will attempt to answer.

    1267:

    Actually, it looks more and more like a false flag operation. In particular, notice the VERY low key way in which May etc. are responding. It indicates that they may have received information that it might not have been the Russians, after all. God alone knows what they will do if they find concrete evidence that it wasn't, especially if they also identify the perpetrators - there's no way that they are going to eat humble pie right now.

    1268:
    I'm pattern-matching on things that I'm not fully/consciously aware of (but aware enough to know that some pattern exists). It has at least led to one successful prediction, in all its statistical lonesomeness :)

    Fascinating, isn't it? Intuition is fun. Problem is you have to remember this preconscious thinking also got us magical rituals, scrying and a host of other woo...

    (I suppose you have read "Blindsight", or haven't you yet?)

    As for the copycat angle, there is this one story about the girl I talked to about MKULTRA when 20, and she next of invited a guy who crossed her to some prosecco; the acid in it was free, I guess.

    (Still didn't want to give me any blotter, but invited me to try speed. I declined politely. Somewhat funny in retrospect, having been on MPh for 12 years...)

    1269:

    BTW, I guess quite a lot of the games and hobbies we have might be forms of brain training (and trying out things you might need later on).

    For my auditory memory, I'm thinking about going learning to distinguish bird vocalizations at the moment, might be similar to trying to analyze music on the spot.

    As for video games as training, well...

    IMHO "Wasted Lands" is not that intellectually demanding, but it reminded me of UFO: Enemy Unknown and XCom in places (I never got into Diablo or WoW, and as for Ultima, the people I hang around with in my middle teens were into flight sims, so my reference pool for inventory based games is somewhat limited). I might take XCom up soon, though I'd like to have a multiplayer option...

    1270:

    For the bird vocalizations, my father used to imitate them and wants to restart it, and my brother has asoft spot for parrots and owls. No true hobby ornithologists in the family, though...

    As for gamifying your life, an old friend[1] mententioned Habitica, I'm keeping clear of it for privacy reasons at the moments and I don't have the time to sort it through, though you could get a look at it.

    Personally, a non-cloud service to syncronize contacts and appointments would be nice, but that's another issue right now.

    [1] I guess she is more similar to Freya from Saturn's Children than Mhari, after all...

    1271:

    You have a most peculiar door! In most houses, someone will use the inside handle to open the door, and either let the other person through (who then won't use the handle), or the other person will use the outside handle to close the door.

    Nope, just a narrow hallway that doesn't have enough room for one person to hold the door and let the other one through, like millions of other houses in the UK.

    I think you're suffering from a kind of "typical mind" fallacy where the way you do things is normal and common, and any other way of doing things is therefore unusual and suspect. In reality, people vary in the details of their daily behaviour enormously & the fact that some particular pair of individuals doesn't act like you do should be entirely unsurprising. IOW, you're latching on to details of the Skripal case that don't match your personal experience and treating them as grounds for suspicion when in fact these things are perfectly within in the bounds of normal behaviour. By all means question the 'official' narrative, but these complaints strike me as pettifogging distractions rather than genuine obstacles to taking that narrative at face value.

    1272:

    No, I am suffering from many years of being an OCD observer and analyst.

    In a case such as you are considering, almost everybody who opens the door will then leave, and the other person will follow and then close it, as I said. It is extremely rare (and rude!) to close a door in someone's face, so your scenario is only plausible if they leave separately.

    In any case, the Skripal's house was NOT like that - it was a typical suburban house with a front door leading only to a small path/garden. You can find pictures if you look for them.

    The situation is as I said. While it is POSSIBLE that they got the Novichok off their front door, it implies that the toxin has two properties that are extremely rare (and have not been claimed for it):

    That it takes a long time (3 hours) to act, and then acts extremely suddenly.

    That the time it takes to act is not significantly dose-dependent.

    1273:

    That it takes a long time (3 hours) to act, and then acts extremely suddenly.

    "Responding to Terrorism" by Ian Greaves (2011), a medical textbook on the topic states the following on Novichok agents:

    Onset: Novichok is reported to be 5–8 times more lethal than VX nerve agent and effects are rapid, usually within 30 seconds to 2 minutes. Major symptoms: Symptoms are the same as those of other nerve agents as shown in Table 5.11 (p. 257). Local effects are thought to be immediate, while systemic effects may be delayed up to 18 hours.

    So the time delay for the final collapse of the Skripals is entirely in line with the extant published medical guidance, assuming they were exposed at their home. Obviously there's room for alternate possibilities, but nothing in the published literature counter-acts the narrative suggested by the UK state as the most likely explanation.

    (And honestly, if I can find this reference with 2 minutes of Googling online, then can I suggest that you should do the same before claiming anything about the case?)

    1274:

    Sigh. You have completely missed the point about the simultaneity, which is the KEY factor. Even making the assumption that the local effects were ignorable, for two people to collapse within a few minutes of each other, after 3 hours, with an agent that can delay up to 18 hours, is highly unlikely.

    In any case, I am not contradicting what the POLICE have said, but only the interpretation the media have put on it. Given their actual actions, they certainly at least took the red herring hypothesis extremely seriously. That didn't even require a search - it was made clear by all of the reports.

    1275:

    You insisted it had to have two properties: I just made it clear that one of those properties was entirely plausible, so you immediately announce that it must be the /other/ property that was really the important one. Which gets a side-eye from me, but whatever.

    To be honest, your claim of "simultaneity" is also suspect: 1) there's a 40 minute hole in the published timeline where either could have developed symptoms before the other and 2) given the likely time of poisoning that makes for something like a potential 20% difference in time to onset of major symptoms, which doesn't sound particularly "simultaneous" to me.

    Have you been reading too much Corbynite Twitter? They seem to be very fond of this sort of weird conspiracy theory thinking regarding the Skripals.

    1276: novichok

    As it's a binary weapon, you would have 2 dosings, like spray a mist for Target to walk through with part-a, then paint Target's doorhandles with part-a. Or put in the soup, or whatever.

    brexit

    A pal worked for some higher echelons in the UK and confirmed there's a lot of pretty clueless Oxbridge toffs running the show

    1277:

    Eh? No, you didn't. The other property was that its timescale was nearly independent of dose, which was not mentioned.

    Are you SERIOUSLY claiming that one person of a couple would develop serious symptoms, and the other would not call for help? Even if they weren't carrying mobile telephones, that location is pretty busy.

    1278:

    S/doorhandles part-a/doorhandles part-b/

    1279:

    They seem to be very fond of this sort of weird conspiracy theory thinking regarding the Skripals.

    Another person not understanding the post-hybrid landscape. If you use the words "Conspiracy Theory", you're merely showing that you're out of date. e.g. no mention of Steele dossier, the DSMA notice on the boyfriend, all kinds of other things going on.

    For example, here's what's happening atm in that space:

    low information to effort ratio

    Actually, it looks more and more like a false flag operation

    Stick to the Daily Mail version of Ms Dawn Sturgess then, not the (alleged) fact her ex-partner is a senior systems engineer with Ultra Electronics in their avionics / UAV division via QinetiQ (nee DERA, there from the start in 2001 onwards, not a newbie). That Ultra Electronics being investigated by the SFO for Algeria deals (although that's only £400k or so from their £775m revenues). Ultra Electronics who bought out Spartan last year.

    Cutting edge stuff. Hmm, there's ORION again, everyone is so unimaginative with their project names.

    If you want to keep it light-hearted, you'll note that UE's Predator / Reaper control design is basically an XBOX / PS4 controller (which is deliberate: kids these days!) See? https://www.ultra-electronics.com/Uploads/ProductImages/UAV_controllers.jpg

    FT has covered UE extensively.

    But looking @ her social media, interesting one: not quite the down and out homeless druggy she's been tarred as, well, before 2016. The man Rowley's social media is all over the place as well. Checking his 2015 conviction for heroin possession is a thing to do: can you find the court docket?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DSMA-Notice

    And, btw ~ all this stuff, let's stick to the UK .mil documents, eh?

    VX is a relatively non-volatile liquid and therefore persistent. It is regarded as presenting little vapour hazard to people exposed to it. In the pure state nerve agents are colourless and mobile liquids. In an impure state, nerve agents may be encountered as yellowish to brown liquids. Some nerve agents have afaint fruity odour.

    In general, nerve agents are moderately soluble in water with slow hydrolysis, highly soluble in lipids, and are rapidly inactivated by strong alkalis and chlorinating compounds.

    https://jramc.bmj.com/content/jramc/148/4/344.full.pdf J R Army Med Corps 2002;

    i.e. the story has to be that this new case both came into contact with a "strong dose" (BBC, go find it) from a container. Which means liquid from? Was it stored in an old vodka bottle? A syringe (doesn't work btw, heroin addicts wash syringes for reasons - and yes, just looked up viscosity in heroin, the PH and all that stuff)

    ~

    If you want to do conspiracy: Boris Johnson just resigned, didn't even make it to the COBRA meeting about this new Amesbury case, which is kinda indicative of the calibre of the UK's (ex) Leadership.

    !Boom!

    Anyhow, y'all tired of us. But as Pivots go, it's on the table. ("Accident")

    1280:

    Oh, and since Thai Boy Cave Saves are in the news, check if anyone did any police diving in Sailsbury river (right next to the target found location). Or did they just check bushes? Part A: Car - ventilation Part B: Door handle / House - ventilation was the hot theory for a while.

    Anyhow, if you're not sitting @ a COBRA meeting (or spooky) you're unlikely to see the reports this side of 50 years.

    1281:

    EC @ 1267 OK let's pretend it's a false-flag ( Rather than an Ru non-official/state ) actor ... WHO? Again cui bono if "f-f". Agree re change of tone, though.

    BoJo resigned!? OH SHIT The Brexiteers are going to go for broke, in the hope of grabbing power in a ruined country. Exactly the same scenario Corbyn is using, of course. FUCK fuck fuck ........

    1282:

    You have completely missed the point about the simultaneity, which is the KEY factor. Simultaneity, and also a very similar dose for both members of two couples, in the official narratives about two different cases, both of which ostensibly involved "handling". The combination (of low probabilities) is what makes me fully willing to entertain other possibilities for at least one of the cases, even bizarre possibilities. If somebody did some modeling, and tests with mechanically similar (benign) substances, and was able to replicate the official narrative, then my objections at least would (mostly) evaporate.

    Nerve agents Introduction (I see this was linked in March) Poisoning takes longer when the nerve agent enters the body through the skin. Nerve agents are more or less fat-soluble and can penetrate the outer layers of the skin. However, it takes some time before the poison reaches the deeper blood vessels. Consequently, the first symptoms do not occur until 20-30 minutes after the initial exposure but subsequently the poisoning process may be rapid if the total dose of nerve agent is high. As you noted, why would the delays line up in two pairs of cases?

    In the recent case, here's a hybrid scenario (OL may have alluded to it): let's suppose (hypothetically; I have no reason to believe this, not being familiar with the case or couple) that the couple were needle-using drug users, doesn't matter what. To send a political message (unclear to us who the actors are or what the message is), the supplier for the couple is coerced (by someone) into supplying them with a specially crafted 'hot dose' (OL above again), with some nerve agent, which they share equally. For their own reasons, the authorities go with the contact poisoning story again. I.e. we could easily cook up dozens of scenarios consistent with the publicly available evidence, but are being asked to believe a single narrative by the authorities.

    OL has been reasonably clear in the last few days, and light on the obtuseness; her question as I read it was basically - is the recent (especially last several days) Brexit politics normal? Related, from my American perspective, the level of incompetence in the current UK leadership is bizarre. (We have the DJT administration, which is similarly bizarrely incompetent.) Or are we (collectively) just getting better at seeing behind the curtains?

    1284:

    What a mess. It doesn't help that one can imagine motives for any of those.

    While reading this, I remembered a pretty old Armenian radio joke: The Armenian Radio was asked: "Is it true that chessmaster Petrosian won his Volga in government lottery" The Armenian Radio answered: "Yes, it is true, except it was not Petrosian, it was a football player Akopyan, not Volga, but 1000 roubles, not in lottery, but in poker, not won, but indeed lost."

    I am, as well, out of options to suggest any motives, reasons and so on about this case since none of them makes sense, except the idea that all of this is, in fact, an oldest trick in the book. I will leave you only a couple of hints. First, it is not a top secret fact that a certain city nearby contains, IIRC, largest and top secret military chemical laboratory in UK. And the second one would be a picture called "us government retirement program", easily found in Google.

    People around the topic might think they are smartest and most educated people on the block, they've seen everything and know everything. If they only had a slightest idea, how bad things are. If they only had an idea, how much worse they can become. https://globalbiodefense.com/2016/05/26/bioresearch-support-lugar-center-tbilisi/ http://www.vona-int.com/en/projects/central-reference-laboratory-building-tbilisi-georgia-2008 https://old.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=30067 https://sut.am/en/archives/373 https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/this-us-backed-lab-is-meant-to-keep-talented-kazakh-scientists-from-making-biological-weapons-67188/ https://www.bv.com/news/black-veatch-constructed-biological-safety-lab-makes-world-safer Look, this is even written in the open text. "We are absolutely, definitely, never going to do these bad things you are talking about, we promise. Everything you said about them is outrageous slander and provocation."

    1285:

    Yes, precisely. I don't have a clue what was actually done, except that the story we are being led to believe (and, remember, the the authorities have nor formally said it happened) is not among the more likely.

    And, the answer to the Brexit question is "essentially, yes", though it is a progression of the way that UK governance has been going downhill for half a century. It's dysfunctionality has been hidden by borrowing from the future (much of the economy is built on interlocking Ponzi schemes) and rearranging the deck chairs, but the ship of state has been in increasing trouble for a long time.

    One of the things I often get flamed for (from all sides) is saying that it is a national disgrace that we have to import so much (and an increasing amount, too) of our skilled workers. We used to be one of the most skilled countries in the world, even in my lifetime. There is an article in the latest New Statesman that points out that the increasing inequality is now starting to hit even the 1% richest. What it misses is that that is NOT solely about money, but has been going on for for many decades in terms of skill and status.

    Old Labour was a disaster, and I can see no evidence that the current bunch are an improvement on it - though they would still be less incompetent than the mad monetarists. As I think I have posted before:

    Who groans beneath the Empire's curse And strangles in the strings of purse Before she mends must sicken worse. Her living mouth shall breed blue flies And maggots creep about her eyes No man shall mark the day she dies.

    And, yes, there ARE influential people attempting to crash the UK (socially and economically) in order to rebuild it to favour their agendas, especially among those behind Brexit. Brexit means Wrecksit.

    1286:

    On simultaneity:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/05/world/europe/uk-salisbury-russia-poisonings.html

    Investigators have been scrutinizing the actions of Mr. Rowley and Ms. Sturgess during the hours before they collapsed. Ms. Sturgess became sick first, at around 10:15 a.m. on Saturday, going into convulsions in the bathroom and foaming at the mouth. Nearly five hours passed before Mr. Rowley, went into a zombielike state, his pupils shrunk to pinpoints, rocking back and forth and sweating profusely, a witness said.

    And from the same article, this on how Mr. Rowley may have encountered the agent:

    Charlie Rowley may have been down on his luck, in and out of treatment for drug addiction, but he had a certain prowess as a “skip diver,” sorting through trash for the valuables that his better-off neighbors threw out. He would emerge with chandeliers, toasters, laptops and trinkets for Dawn Sturgess, his girlfriend.
    1287:

    I am unable to tell whether Theresa May has played a subtle and complex game to screw Brexit or she is useless The results are identical I lean to subtle, BoJo as Foreign Secretary.....

    1288:

    Part of that comment was more general than just you.

    And yeah... I just "adore" the EXTREME LEFTIST DEMOCRATS... y'know, the "left wing" of the Democrats... the ones who are way out there, with, say, LBJ.

    1289:

    God. Fucking. Damn.

    Thank you. I owe you a drink.

    1290:

    Ms. Sturgess became sick first, at around 10:15 a.m. on Saturday, going into convulsions in the bathroom and foaming at the mouth. Nearly five hours passed before Mr. Rowley, went into a zombielike state, his pupils shrunk to pinpoints, rocking back and forth and sweating profusely, a witness said. Ah, very good, hadn't seen that. That shifts the probabilities for the scenarios a lot for me. I knew about the "skip diving" ("dumpster diving" in the US).

    1291:

    Novichek: I heard from a friend (British, actually), after I asked on a techie/fan mailing list, that there are two forms, liquid, which decays fairly quickly, and a solid form, that lasts longer.

    Now: seeing that the new folks weren't simultaneous, I think the woman got it first, and the heaviest dose, and the guy had more body mass (guessing here).

    But it still makes no sense. Certainly, my first cut is to say this was not a professional state actor, who would have been well trained (you do not send untrained folks out with weapons like this), and who would have disposed of any excess propertly.

    So, that puts it on a second party, who was given instructions, and let go.

    Unless - he's novel-writing for you: the folks who just got it were the other party with the leftovers.

    But who does it benefit. Thanks so much, EC, for giving me a second suspect. My original was an element of the CIA (and there are seriously factions in there, but all of them, at this point, loathe DT), to build up anti-Russian sentiment.

    Now, though, I have to think of Israel, for the same reason, buy over Syria. Note that over the weekend, I think, I saw that the US is screwing the Kurds and the secular revolutionaries in Syria....

    1292:

    And, hey, ho, I see BoJo go! All the mad-to-pick-your-bones headed towards the door, with the "we want to feed on them forever, not kill the golden goose, you stupid fools" winning, perhaps?

    I must admit to additional humor in his nickname: the restaurant on the Pennsylvania Turnpike, up until their contract ended in the nineties(?), was a chain named Howard Johnson. Toward the end of their reign (actually, I'd take them over almost all the replacements), they started abbreviating their name... to HoJo.

    1293:

    On a totally unrelated subject... is anyone from the UK coming to Worldcon? If so, I would gladly pay you to bring over a couple bottles of 12 yr Knockando, which I can NOT find in the US, and was the whisky that got me liking single malt in the first place, about 24 years ago.

    1294:
    GIANT FUCKING RED HGV LORRY Breaks the English language rules for meaningful progression. https://www.gingersoftware.com/content/grammar-rules/adjectives/order-of-adjectives/

    No it doesn't. It's just that 'fucking' is not an adjective. Expletives are... interesting: they are more like animal response cries than words in many ways (even being produced by the appropriate region of the brain), and they can break all sorts of rules: or rather they have their own rules that apply to them in particular: it is questionable whether things like 'fuck you' even constitute sentences. They are not adjectival and can often be inserted as intensifiers before other syntactic constituents in places where adjectives cannot (in front of verbs, for starters, and people do this all the time without even fucking realizing, because it's perfectly normal).

    They can even be inserted within other constitutents, in a construction common in many languages but ex-fucking-ceedingly rare in English. The canonical papers on this are mostly by the late great James D. McCawley, aka "Quang Phuc Dong" of the "South Hanoi Institute of Technology", but this is a thriving area of research and much has been done since he died.

    In this particular case, what we see is that 'fucking' is acting as an intensifier of 'red', noting that the lorry was particularly red: you can perfectly well have a fucking giant red bloody HGV lorry, in which case you aren't commenting on the redness, but are emphasising its size and are surprised and probably angry that it's an HGV. (I don't know why the fact that it was red was so unusual: I'd call it more surprising that it was large, so to me your construction reads rather like something written by a non-native speaker of English.)

    1295:

    "Fucking" can most definitely be used as an adjective; it is the construction closest to a Latin gerundive. Weren't we all taught: "A gerundive is an adjective; a gerund is a noun." I suspect that you are confusing an adjective with an adverb.

    https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/gerundive

    1296:

    so to me your construction reads rather like something written by a non-native speaker of English

    Well, yes. We're happy to concede that it didn't break the exact grammar rules, and we defer to your most erudite and polite way of telling us to go fuck ourselves[0], but our minds don't work like yours.

    Here's the construction from our view-point:

    a) It strikes the reader as 'being off', despite grammatically correct: we know that Males of your species like fucking, and also attribute size importance to fucking. Thus, when fucking is applied to color, not size, the Male Mind is instantly alerted to possible status loss. We debated a little here: if the color had been different (perhaps puce), the fucking might have symbolically worked, but we had to consider b):

    b) All (most? some? stereotyped in film?) Fire Services Vehicles in the UK are Red: at least in the mental imagination space where Fireman Sam lives. We debated placing the 'fucking' on the HGV part as normatively the UK audience defaults to 'fire engine', but as it was in this case a HGV and not an engine (which would have muddled things too much) we faulted to the sexual innuendo (the age of the average reader here suggested we should Focus Target the era genre of 'On the Buses' and Carry on Films).

    c) We did indeed intend the sentence to suggest that the writer was in fact not a native speaker, as we were referencing a .RU twitter feed.

    d) We knew that a) it did exist, b) it had been tweeted and c) had been deleted: thus it's not jarring to us at all, which is the actual source of humor once someone (Pigeon) tracked it down. Thus the entire construction is not a grammar joke, but a philosophical joke about epistemology[1].

    e) On a more esoteric note, we direct you to the new field of internet studies, Rule34ology, advanced section: "Dragonsfuckingcars or carsfuckingdragons - why not both? A case study"[2] in which Quang Phuc Dong is challenged by the young blood and proven to be under a restricted Category Error. Be warned, you might never look upon a sexy HGV with heavy skirts in quite the same light ever again.

    ~

    It was a hook: it worked. Now, did we use a past subjunctive to construct the sentence? We might have done so.

    [0] http://babel.ucsc.edu/~hank/quangphucdong.pdf

    [1] Popper: "there exists a black swan...

    [2] https://www.reddit.com/r/dragonsfuckingcars and https://www.reddit.com/r/carsfuckingdragons/

    1297:

    watches Mr Neil arguing ancient politics with (ex) MP Neil Clark who was ruthlessly targeted by the Philip Cross Crew while being kept out of contemporary politics, and Cohen and so on being brought into his mentions

    Watches Time Columnist make the stupidest hot take this side of Christendom about installing Farage as a dictator

    Watches their Media Sphere Mirror Breaking

    Watches Future Share Prices crash

    Turns out the Universe is not without a sense of irony: Zuckerberg says "Dumb Fucks" and their lot are no longer playing nice.

    It's like watching condemned men come to a realization that their time has past so their old differences are meaningless in the face of the new horrors and so they share a cigarette and reminisce while their world burns down. We'd go with a contemporary reference, but these old fucks wouldn't get it, so: Demarcation! YT, Film, Cross of Iron, 7.47

    @Host. Well, they called you nasty names, pulled the Hierarchy and Class / Status insult and the old economic thumb-screws.

    How do they put it? Oh, right: "It's not what you know, it's who you know".

    Be Well, Be Green, Be Safe.

    Silver Chains, they struck first, Dat's The Rulez. "Accident".

    1298:

    BA @ 1282 No it is not normal The entire Brit political class seems to have imploded – anything at all is possible. I fear a Corbyn “leave” guvmint, 20-25% unemployment outside the EU, crypto-communism & the £ worth 20C US if we are lucky. The alternative is a BoJo “leave” guvmint, crypto-fascism & the £ worth 20C US if we are lucky.

    EC @ 1283 Not buying it – you still don’t say who really benefits – certainly no-one in the UK BUT @ 1285 it is a national disgrace that we have to import so much (and an increasing amount, too) of our skilled workers. Yeah, well I have had ZERO DAYS employment with my engineering MSc - & “We can’t get the trained staff” … TRANSLATION: “We refuse to employ anyone over 40 & preferably over 35, because we can’t cheat them” Which links to “Wrecsxit” of course.

    Whitroth @ 1293 Was intending to -assuming you mean Dublin next year? Can’t afford it. SHIT

    1299:

    Well, I was never taught any formal rules for English adjective order. I just put them in whatever order comes naturally; nobody's ever complained. (Come to that, I was never taught any formal rules for any other aspect of English grammar either. Other languages, yes, but not English. I just rely on what I've picked up from reading. It seems to work.) My take on the phrase in question is:

    A phrase containing so many consecutive adjectives (or equivalent, which it is) where one of them is a rude word is always going to be slightly odd. In one sense it might be a bit less odd with the rude word at the beginning, but in another it might be a bit more odd.

    It's one of those cases that seems to call for the rude word to be in the middle somewhere. For this reason, though one might formally consider the rude word to be an intensifier of "red" from its positioning, I take it more as an intensifier of the whole phrase.

    Were it not for attention being specifically called to that positioning, it would have passed me by without causing any particular reaction. The aspect that does impose itself on my awareness is the tautologousness of "HGV lorry".

    1300:

    I don't think the difficulties and hazards of synthesis are all that relevant. Yes, it is unlikely to have been made in someone's shed, but I don't see any reason to think that it might have been. Neither suitably-equipped labs nor suitably-knowledgeable chemists are really all that rare - both exist in the local area, just for a start.

    It certainly isn't true that "only Russia can make it". The US knows all the details, and probably has samples; they sent a team over to help the Russians take their facility apart. Germany was also involved. There are a few hundred people who used to work at that facility and have a skill set looking for an application. And the chemical formulae, at least, have been public for about a decade now, for anyone to work out a synthesis who was so inclined.

    That's if it even was "novichok" (and if it's true, per #1273, that effects show within 2 minutes, it can't have been). All we really know is that it was probably a cholinergic poison, and there are loads of those. All the strangely-popular nit-picking over what people suppose are the physical properties, environmental persistence, and such things is a complete waste of time when we don't even know what substance we're supposing physical properties for (even "novichok" does not refer to a particular substance; it's the name of the programme to develop a bunch of substances).

    1301:

    Oh yes, it leads very directly to all kinds of woo, if you let it! But I think it is a useful technique as long as you keep sight of the limitations and failure modes.

    1302:

    Eh? I never said that anyone in the UK would benefit! Let me spell out ONE scenario for cui bono.

    Da'esh was and is losing to Assad in Syria, because of Russian support for its ally, and the fact that 'the west' is not taking a correspondingly active role in its support. Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states were and are not happy with that. Increasing the west's hostility to Russia might help with that. OK?

    1304:

    Your argument falls down immediately: English is not Latin, and its grammar is not particularly similar to Latin grammar. (By 'grammar' here I mean the rules speakers' brains actually implement, not the stuff taught in schools invented out of whole cloth by people who really, really wanted all languages to work just like Latin.)

    1305:

    It was a hook: it worked.

    So it took you only one post to start brazenly lying to me because you cannot ever admit that you might not know everything and be right about everything.

    Killfiled, again. I don't know why I ever considered that unkillfiling you was a good idea.

    1306:

    The Irish are (mostly) viewing Brexit with a mixture of bafflement, schadenfreude, and terror.

    Imagine watching the neighbour that has harassed you for years slowly go insane ...

    1307:

    (I note that Mr Shipley has apparently given up on trying to prove that while X equals Y, Y most definitely does not equal X, and never quite got round to posting his most excellent explanation of why Brexit is awesome and definitely not a big fat shit sandwich for NI.)

    1308:

    Er, do think about it, even if you aren't going to look it up. Any action verb's present particple can be used as an adjective, as in washing machine, mowing machine, fighting couples or copulating rabbits; fucking is no different.

    You have a good point that it (technically) should not qualify another adjective, as it is not an adverb, no matter how commonly it is used to do so.

    1309:

    ...Well, I was never taught any formal rules for English adjective order. I just put them in whatever order comes naturally; nobody's ever complained.

    Likewise, but to my surprise when it was pointed out to me, the rules are expressible:

    Quantity, Value/opinion, Size, Temperature, Age, Shape, Colour, Origin, Material

    https://www.ef.co.uk/english-resources/english-grammar/ordering-multiple-adjectives/

    1310:

    Er, excuse me? Try doing some research.

    We stated that the initial post (not the single one you replied to) was a Narrative Hook:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narrative_hook

    Quite explicitly we knew that that twitter post had been deleted and the authorities were attempting to cover up the fact that on initial deployment they did not, in fact, deploy their chemical weapons special secret bag of tricks. Which you may (or may not) consider "weird" given that one person died from chemical weapons (allegedly). So, either the initial deployment was fluffed, mucked up, done wrong and is liable for the death of said person, or their initial analysis was correct and no chemical weapons were present.

    So, in a UK run by its actual Laws, at the very least an inquiry would be held into this discrepancy and then the attempt to cover up the truth.

    Usually in situations like this (hello Grenfell Tower), the authorities throw a minor underling under the bus and ignore the larger structural issues (in Grenfell, it was the head of the local fire-fighters in London who lead the response, I think).

    Given we'd seen it, claiming that Fire HGVs of that nature do not exist is immediately disprovable - which lead to the uncovering by an independent source that, indeed, said twitter post (and fire HGV) did indeed exist and the underlying 'weird' was... TRUE.

    Either you:

    a) Don't understand the explanation or the meta levels of thought required

    or

    b) Are attempting to lie / project in the style of the Philip Crosses of this world

    or

    c) Are embarrassed that your Quang Phuc Dong got Trumped by a better joke (three, in fact).

    Here's the difference: we openly state to take everything with a gallon of salt but also provide explanations if asked. People like Philip Cross... do not. Another interesting feature about people like Philip Cross: when beaten, cheat and insult and resort to dirty tricks.

    Luckily, Mr 'Nix' will never have to face this Truth because s/h/ze has kill-filed us.

    Which, incidentally, is exactly the M.O. of people like Philip Cross.

    QED.

    1311:

    That shows a level of sanity that is rare this side of the Irish sea, exactly as you said. The saner of us hold similar opinions, but with despair replacing bafflement, and whatever word replaces schadenfreude when you are one of the people going to suffer. It will be amusing (in a schadenfreude sense) to see how Rabid's style for buggering things up differs from Toadsworth's.

    As you say, my still vaguely mathematical mind is unable to follow the subtleties of the UK's current position on Northern Ireland. I can only assume that they are closing their eyes to it, and hoping that Ireland will simply go away (as Williamson so memorably told Russia to do).

    1312:

    In case anyone wishes to show Nix that they are being very silly indeed, here's the deleted tweet:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DhQa0i9U8AAi1PJ.jpg

    Be assured, it has been shared many times and is all over the place and since this is the internet, the archive of Swindon's Fire Service also exists. It was also reported in the press a day later:

    A specialist "decontamination shower" was taken to the scene by Dorset and Wiltshire Fire and Rescue Service on Saturday, but a crew from Swindon later tweeted that “thankfully the incident wasn't serious and our decontamination shower wasn't required”. The tweet has since been deleted.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/amesbury-incident-latest-updates-wiltshire-poison-terror-couple-victim-salisbury-hospital-porton-a8430656.html

    Note the date: we just happen to tell you about it 24-48 hrs before it's News.

    Nixed over something that caused enough heat that it was reported on: feel free to claim that Swindon's Decontamination Shower is used post-fires to cut down on cancer rather than in chemical weapons alerts, that's a smarter move: Cancer and the firefighter – how decontamination showers can help International Firefighter, 2017

    You'd probably still want to ask why the inquiry into Sailsbury was closed by that point and everyone 'stood off alert' if there's still this stuff out there though.

    Hint: psyop warfare, traditional terror type, double-tap once subjects assume the all clear.

    @Peanut Gallery: 'The bullshit piled up so fast, you needed wings to stay above it'.

    @[Redacted]: Wheels are coming off their buses: we remain neutral to the fate of the ones that lie.

    ~

    But yeah: now officially bored. Ciao.

    1313:

    (HINT: you don't take your expensive Official Support HGV to a site where no fire has been reported if you're going to claim it's standard OP to cut down on cancer though. Just a free head's up there).

    Conclusion: The Rot in the UK seemingly is quite wide-spread.

    1314:

    Oh, and someone tell Nix the text states:

    77 mile round trip for our Operational Support Unit last night to Amesbury. Thankfully the incident wasn't serious and our decontamination shower wasn't required.

    An incident in the Kings Gate area of Amesbury on Saturday evening (June 30th) is thought to have been a drug-related medical episode.

    More than 10 emergency vehicles arrived on the scene from police, ambulance and fire service.

    A number of roads around the estate were closed for a time, but re-opened within a couple of hours.

    You may then attempt to correlate that with the disparate times of both subjects being taken to hospital (morning, mid afternoon) and read up on what a D-Notice does. You don't deploy 10 vehicles after the subjects have already been carted away unless you [redacted]. But work it out.

    Todays' press:

    The 44-year-old, who leaves behind three children, has been the target of vile conspiracy theories circulated online as the investigation into how she was exposed to novichok continues.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/amesbury-novichok-incident-dawn-sturgess-death-family-statement-investigation-poisoning-a8440071.html

    If you know anything, you'll know that the person who directed that copy, loves using the word "vile". It's their School back-ground showing.

    If someone would tell the people who run D-Notices that their Press / Media training needs some serious upgrades in the times of Twitter and social media, that'd be great: they're fucking incompetent.

    Nix: poked the wrong Storm, clumsy.

    1315:

    Note that there was a certain amount of confusion around the initial response in Amesbury - hardly surprising that when they heard hooves, they didn't think zebras (the Emergency Services will handle a lot more drug overdose and alcohol poisoning than nerve agent attacks). Even if you've never worked in a control room or a command post, you'll understand that they are operating minute to minute with incomplete and emerging information.

    Occam's Razor would suggest that the simplest explanation is "two people have come across an abandoned container used when dispersing the original persistent nerve agent".

    Occam's Razor would suggest the simplest explanation for a large red HGV is that someone in the Control Center thought "you know what - it might be a good idea to send the decontamination gear to a possible contamination incident". On arrival, it's not used.

    Occam's Razor would also suggest that when you've tweeted thankfully the incident wasn't serious and our decontamination shower wasn't required”, it isn't completely true if you've got two people in hospital (one of whom later dies) - and that perhaps, just maybe, they deleted it so as not to upset the relatives?

    But none of these boring explanations fit the High Drama!! Conspiracy Detected!! We Know More Than You!! Our Kind Is Never Humdrum!! Watch Out, Big Bad Spooks Are Watching Us!! Eleventy!! narrative, so of course they should be instantly ruled out.

    1316:

    That's if it even was "novichok" (and if it's true, per #1273, that effects show within 2 minutes, it can't have been).

    Depends how it enters the system. I suspect that "30 seconds to two minutes" is inhalation or ingestion, rather than skin contact; and that any variation in the time from contact to effects (say, over half an hour? an hour? we don't know) is close enough that in retrospect it appears simultaneous...

    1317:

    closing their eyes to it, and hoping that Ireland will simply go away

    Yep. This includes the DUP and the idiots who support their Brexit stance. I suspect that most of the Brexidiocy with regards to Ireland comes from two fundamental assumptions that the average Brexiteer can't internalize: 1) Ireland is no longer the almost-pre-industrial theocratic basket-case of a country that DeValera & Co maintained for too long. 2) For the purposes of Brexit negotiations the EU and Ireland are indivisible.

    (Of course, it should be abundantly clear at this point that the relationship between the average Brexiteer and political reality is tenuous at best.)

    1318:

    But none of these boring explanations fit the High Drama!! Conspiracy Detected!! We Know More Than You!! Our Kind Is Never Humdrum!! Watch Out, Big Bad Spooks Are Watching Us!! Eleventy!! narrative, so of course they should be instantly ruled out.

    ZZzzz: really boring if everyone's Mind was identical, wouldn't it?

    To explain in ridiculously simplistic terms since it's apparently required; this is precisely why the initial post #1084 is:

    a) Stylistically hyper-manic and hyperbolic WITH CAPITAL LETTERS and BLATANT OUTRAGEOUS UNTRUTHS THAT CANNOT BE REAL

    b) The narrative thread through-out is that this is an actual Laundry Event (which, er, even the people running the D-notices don't know about)

    and (important one)

    c) Contains the words: "As subtle as a brick"

    We already knew what impact the twitter deletion would have (and had been tracking the spread), and how it would be used by others (e.g. RU Ambassador Twitter - who ignored it because the people running the D notice had already done their work for them too beautifully and they're too busy organizing Bermuda) and how now (9th July) the press is having to attempt to retroactively calm the waters with pieces claiming 'vile conspiracy theories' and to respect the families involved. Hint: the one way you ensure that Conspiracy Theories retain power is to tell the people who spotted it all that they're imagining it in the broadsheet media. That's like Psychology 101.

    If the people running the show and the D-notices had been competent, none of this would have been necessary. i.e. we.are.making.fun.of.your.whoever.runs.D-notices.

    points at recent OPCW report on Duma which was almost used to start a fucking war

    You can be many things in the spoooky intel world: incompetent is a dangerous one and the [redacted] come out to play.

    p.s.

    1253 look up-thread. #366 on-wards. If you think "OPERATION: HOUSE OF CARDS" and so on are cute, everyone does them. Try a translation of OPERATION START THUNDER GIRL/PLEDGE (Dawn-Thunder-Pledge)

    Novochik - 'new guy', not actual name: OPERATION FOLIANT: Daily Mail breathlessly reports:

    !!11!!!Heroin drug users found discarded container in BUSHES!11!1!!!

    You're being trolled by some heavy players. Or the Universe has a much better sense of humor / irony than it lets on.

    1319:

    @EC: And if you really want to wallow in despair, take a look at how the rest of Europe views the latest Brexit/Tory developments. The chance of any proposal by T May being taken seriously or as a genuine offer must be almost nil at this point.

    1320:

    the Universe has a much better sense of humor / irony than it lets on

    Yep.

    1321:

    FOLIANT - blank leaf of book, usually front/back cover; DEFOLIANT - chemical that strips leaves off vegetation; This Operation further de-stabilizes the UK's Narrative; if you've not spotted the .RU Ambassador and others have a particular humor style, you probably should.

    Whoever planted the Daily-Mail bushes story (or the skip-diving one) has a sense of humor, albeitly a sociopathic one. Or we're just playing around and what you read in the Daily Mail is reality.

    shrug

    Since you want reality, and the Press is absent, look up the the Swindon Bronze / Silver Command and so on for 10+ units deployed, because they were most certainly informed / involved: https://www.wiltshire.police.uk/media/560/Emergency-Multi-Agency-Procedures/pdf/Emergency_Multi_Agency_Procedures.pdf

    Oh, and also note that Swindon Fire Services got brutally slashed in funding cuts. Loss of 100+ RDS from memory. So yay Austerity!

    ~

    But, here's a freebee: [redacted] really do exist. And the story stinks to high-heaven, it's large dollops of bullshit in a ratio of about 5:1.

    1322:

    Oh, I have - look at #1285 for my conclusions.

    I am almost certain that Toadsworth was deliberately blocking all progress, with the intention of producing a completely unacceptable (and probably completely infeasible) proposal at the last minute, blaming the Evil EU Empire for its rejection, and so getting the 'no deal' that his controllers wanted. And, no, I don't think that he planned that personally - he was just the front man, following instructions. I still think that is the most likely outcome, though we may not have an even half-functioning government in March 2019.

    My guess is that Rabid will follow the Maybot's agenda more closely, and produce proposals that are economically soft, but as hard as adamant on human rights, justice, the movement of people etc. Logically adding gateways (including on the Northern Irish border) with "All rights abandon, ye who enter here". Well, YOU know how that will go down in Ireland and the EU.

    1323:

    I've given up all but the most cursory attempt to model the thinking of the Brexiteer Bunch, and am even struggling to just process what is going on.

    I was at a marvellous open air gig in Dublin at the weekend, with some splendid friends and family, in the kind of Irish weather that we (used to) only get a few times a decade -- I'm holding on to that joy like a drowning man right now ...

    1324:

    OY 1310 Except in the Grenfell case we have a Public Enquiry & we have not yet got to the ( IIRC devastating ) information that the “Dry Riser” for the tower was completely fucked. You are trying to say something, but as usual, it’s obscured – could you please say it (whatever it is ) straight out, if it actually amounts to anything? And – PLEASE don’t keep using [redacted] – because it suggests, actually that there is nothing there at all. ( see later note below ) Thank you.

    Err … 1321 But, here's a freebee: [redacted] really do exist. So, you are telling us that something un-named really exists – how very helpful.

    DtP @ 1317 Spot on, particularly (1) – Ireland was still like that in 1965, but it has changed, enormously for the better at an accelerating pace.

    EC @ 1322 I am horribly afraid you are correct. Except it won’t wash, because people simply won’t stand for it – eventually.

    1325:

    Dublin - ah, no. I hear that it's expensive; certainly, London and the UK was in '14, and I'm retiring next year, right around Worldcon, which means my income will drop by about half.

    Not unless I win the lottery, yeah, I know, buy a ticket....

    1326:

    Just search for "london grenfell firefighter blamed" and you'll find May-June right-wing media attacks on the fire service. Huge efforts to stitch up the Man, rather than focus on the under-funding Boris got away with.

    If you've not spotted the huge joke yet, regarding D-Notices and deleted tweets... Ask yourself why Sky News was there to film the male victim being pulled out of the house, who tipped them off and why those 10+ vehicles didn't deploy active measures etc (then work out 77 miles journey time, tweet was posted @ 8.46pm Jul 30th initially).

    Because national news TV crews usually turn up to random poor homeless junkies ODing, right? (Whose house was worth ~£300k or so).

    But someone really did die.

    Sailsbury has a bit of a fentanyl issue atm:

    Major chemical incident declared after 10 people vomited fentanyl and two are critically ill Devon Online, 5th Mar, 2018

    Salisbury hospital closes A&E after people fall ill from dangerous substance Times, Mar 2018

    Doctors warn of super-strength synthetic heroin on the streets of Wiltshire Swindon Advertizer Jan 2018

    So: let's posit someone setup the bomb with a fentanyl cover and someone in the force tipped off Sky News (they probably tweeted and Sky tweeted back knowing the culture of dumb atm) and it all blew up...

    Tfw / mfw Mafia / Spook hit designed to not be noticed gets noticed for all the wrong reasons...

    ~

    Anyhow, Ciao Greg. Shits about to get real wild / freaky-deeky.

    1327:

    1326 Yes, but those efforts ( trying to blame j random fire-chief ) have, quite obviously already failed & your supposed point was?

    1328:

    From an American's POV, it looks to be not competent, unlike (the fictional) Mr Wolf in Pulp Fiction. Not completely sure that was OI's point (at least in part) but perhaps.

    1329:

    Shits about to get real wild / freaky-deeky. Oh my. You have a rather high threshold. Any place (even abstract) we might want to consider paying closer attention to? (No need for an answer unless you feel like it.)

    The Onion, trying valiantly. Picky Refugee Just Expects To Be Reunited With Exact Same Family As Before Reading (mentioning only because of the link), by former The Onion editor Scott Dikkers, How to Write Funny: Your Serious, Step-By-Step Blueprint For Creating Incredibly, Irresistibly, Successfully Hilarious Writing

    1330:

    Oh my. You have a rather high threshold.

    Probably should grep dragons / penguins / wolves in the sky. Or: Brexit Vote Date. Or: US Election Vote Date. You might spot something if you have a musical / harmonic bone in your body. cough Remember: we're heavily drunk / smoke constantly / don't bother eating / our kind no longer talk to us in the bodies we inhabit.

    If/when you understand it, you'll either vomit or laugh hysterically.

    emotionally invalidating environment

    Yeah, you've kinda no idea what Hominid Culture is like to eat: and we try really hard not to wick-off too much of what we've eaten and y'all still think we're total psychopathic hate beasties. Please remember what we see when you write. They want us to remember / become the Old Versions.

    Looks @ UK Conservative Party - more resignations, more Chaos. Davidcshipley is retweeting Lord Ash, ERG and other rabid ultra-Brexit. He's probably not all that popular since he annoyed us and their world fell apart.

    "You'll be Home Soon" "It's Coming Home"

    I'd focus on the USA, it's about to get Gilead up your street and Wikipedia and other major nodes are being ddos'd atm.

    No, really: they're about to enact The Plan. For Realz.

    1331:

    When someone tells you they will be late due to a demonologist appointment 1) you hope for an autocomplete error 2) for sure you don’t mess with them Paul-Olivier Dehaye, Twitter, 10th July 2018

    Follow for Brexit / ICO stuff: spoilers - no teeth, crappy fines mean nothing. Symbolic but hey, at least the Welsh Goddess tried.

    But.

    He kinda hit the nail on the head about the old Djinn.

    Need mushrooms/love/kitten/Bast/speech/orca/swimintheeternalsea/forestwildhunt.

    Anyhow, Host is on Sabbatical and we're not supposed to be posting, just tying up ends.

    Stop poking us.

    1332:

    O-Y @ 1330 I'd focus on the USA, it's about to get Gilead up your stree OK that actually made sense ... but ... any particular reasons why "now" - & not, say as soon as Pence becomes POTUS? And are you suggesting that the DT's supporters are going to gain in the US mid-terms, or what?

    1333:

    (and if it's true, per #1273, that effects show within 2 minutes, it can't have been)

    The reference I quoted (see above) said that /local/ symptoms were observed after 2 minutes, but /systemic/ symptoms might take up to 18 hours to occur.

    (IIRC I read somewhere that the powder form takes effect very rapidly if breathed in, but transfer through the skin from gel / liquid takes much longer to have any major effect. I don't have any kind of reliable reference for this however, so take with the requisite pinch of salt.)

    1334:

    As almost all (all?) biochemically active compounds are absorbed in seconds when breathed in, and much longer if absorbed through the skin, it would be flabberghasting if that were not the case.

    1335:

    The ICO investigation also shone new light on the extent to which political parties were using personal data sold on by data brokers without consent.

    It announced it was expanding its 14-month investigation into data and politics, which has centred on the Facebook data leak, into whether Arron Banks, a major donor to the campaign for the UK to leave the EU, improperly gave pro-Brexit groups data about voters obtained for insurance purposes.

    The UK regulator is also investigating whether Mr Banks’ Eldon Insurance Limited’s call centre staff used customer databases to make calls on behalf of Leave.EU. The official Remain campaign, Britain Stronger In Europe, is also being investigated over how it collected and shared personal information.

    Facebook hit with first fine over Cambridge Analytica data scandal FT, 10th July 2018

    Global Scoop, unless you read our meanderings and read-between-the-lines. Black Sarcophagus is just perfect timing.

    Bonus round for Spooks, Host and [redacted]: check the user names & emails used. There's a Mail.RU one in there, who are also tied into all of this via FB investors and RU data sharing laws. Which technically means the Russian Government broke no Laws when it was doing its data mining / shaping operations. Unlike the SCL etc

    Tsk tsk tsk.

    Anyhow - Philip Cross is run by out-of-date and dangerously incompetent sociopaths and you need a good Mind Purge of a significant % of your Establishment Elites.

    Is Theresa May guilty of treason? Plenty of readers think so. Politicians would be wise to listen up The Telegraph, 11th July 2018

    Barclays Brothers, 2018: How do we top the MP expenses scandal hit job? To the Tower with the lot of them!

    Munin the raven passed away after a brief age-related illness, said the Tower’s Ravenmaster, Chris Skaife, adding that she would be sorely missed.

    Tower of London’s oldest raven dies aged 22 iNews 23rd Mar 2018

    Hey, the real trick is working out how #embargocat we front-ran the global scoop by 48 hrs or so. ^^

    ~

    @Nix: You know nothing, John Snow. But enough complaints, we'll bother y'all no more, no more...

    1336:
    Yeah, you've kinda no idea what Hominid Culture is like to eat:

    Err, it's not just humans that are invalidating, in some cases it's just the universe's usual modus operandi, like a friend's girlfirend dieing of cancer or the protagonists's dog dieing in Huxley's Island.

    And there is the fact that by speaking up one is quite liekly invalidating other people's emotions, too. Which might lead them to speak back. E.g. happy shouting time or flame wars in our case.

    I guess I'm somewhat relearning dealing with criticism, also revisiting some criticisms in the past which might not have been as scathing as I thought. Sometimes not caring for it, sometimes think it might have been constructive, sometimes the person not being privy to all facts.

    How to distinguish "not caring for it" from "blunted affect" might be difficult in the long run.

    The problem is when stress interacts with strong reactivity to it; keeping resting periods helps, maybe I'll try some simple breathing exercises again soon...

    As for the generyl fun with discussions, it takes time for me to work out what I'm thinking in some areas, and another problem is we have quite a few people with diametrically opposed opinions, and my skepticism might just be lack of conviction. Or lack of confiction is skepticism that should be cultivated, err, whatever.

    In the Amesbury case, well, the brain is wired to look for coincidences, though it even has some automatic filters involved.

    Some multiple substance users finding a bottle and drinkimg it, quite likely; the guy I talked to a few days ago said he found a bottle at Externsteine and only afterwards realized it had been an alcoholic extract of Papaver somniferum.

    So this part is quite liekly, even with my somewhat patchy experience in that regard.

    It gets somewhat stranger with the amount of vehicles in place; I'm not sure about how emergency services in Britain work, but let's assume we have "2 unconscious people, drug paraphernalia around". In Germany, that'd mean 2 ambulances; also expect at least one emergency physician with his car to be around, quite likely being the first responder. To facilitate entrance and to rule out a crime, e.g. a brawl gone wrong, I guess the police'd be around, too. So I'd expect at least 4 vehicles around.

    Also note communication doesn't travel instantly, so the press release talking about a drug case while the grunts on the ground already know the narcan isn't working, and in any case, that's not a sedative toxidrome would not seem that strange.

    Please don't take this as "you're mistaken", it's just working out alternatives is tricky, especially when stressed and dealing with things you don't know or don't think about at the moment. Wondering if my mother was a sociopath last year when her sister died was somewhat over the top, I guess...

    Till then, see the above as a "null hypothesis"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Null_hypothesis

    though I have no idea how to do a chi square or similar in this case.

    1337:

    Err, for the sociopathy, explanation of lack of emotional response: "I'don't cry, and I didn't cry when my father died when I was 14."

    If you excuse me, I'm wondering if some headbanging is in order. Yes, you could parse that one as self-harm, please don't tell my neurologist.

    I guess I'll look for one of those knee pads for garden work to protect my head next...

    Well, sometimes facepalming just isn't enough, and I won't google for the pictures from TNG...

    1338:

    Need mushrooms/love/kitten/Bast/speech/orca/swimintheeternalsea/forestwildhunt. Not a poke, just playing with kitten (9 weeks old now), and thinking (especially about the above grep suggestion) and meditating and seeking. Summertime, and changes of circumstances.

    Now that was funny: male mockingbird chasing/harassing a 1.5m black rat snake, full sun, light and shadow and white wing patches and black snake all in motion.

    It is fascinating to me that the foreign press is playing a role in both Brexit and Trump 2016 story-breaking. Analogous to Five Eyes, but for the independent (as opposed to domestically captive) press outlets. The Guardian is popular in the US, and bloomberg's brexit stories have been helpful.

    1339:

    What, just because we didn't take his word for what he'd done, and who he knew, and didn't fall to our knees for someone so Important posting to this blog?

    Let me note, as a thought hits me, that Nobel prizewinner Paul Krugman, who Charlie knows, doesn't post here, which suggests that DavidS has a little too much time on his hands, when he could be Making Money (the only valid goal for humans, at least according to the 0.1%)

    1340:

    I read Krugman's cmt, that what May wants is referred to, by some, as BINO, Brexit In Name Only.

    On our side of the Pond... I literally just realized an hour or so ago, what Putin really intends for Trump: P wants T to be the US's Boris Yeltsin.

    1341:

    It's not that simple. People can be extremely affected and not cry. There are several reasons why they might not.

    1342:

    No, that's only the economic aspect. She is the hardest of the hardliners on the social aspect, including the ECJ. On the ecological aspect, I don't know, because the UK's hypocrisy makes the situation so opaque that it's unclear what on earth anyone in power believes.

    1343:

    I know now, and I guess I knew it before 2017. But back then...

    At the risk of repeating myself, 2017 was, err, interesting; I lost about 5 to 10 kg in spring and have only fragmented memories of the time, funny thing is nobody at work realized, I was just somewhat more scatterbrained and somewhat jumpy in my thoughts; my personal comparison to what happened when I came out of my depression at the end of May was:

    "Remember the time in TNG when the Romulans return from isolation just to find out their bases have been destroyed by the Borg?"

    (Especially when I found out a friend was homeless in October, but I digress...)

    (Bonus points for having to sort my email inbox, any longer and people would have realized something was amiss...)

    My associative cortex coming back with a vengeance was fun, too.

    And every time I calmed down somewhat, some new shit happened.

    I'm still not sure what to make off that time, surely I overreacted at some points, but then, I say to myself at least I reacted at all.

    As for now, my mother argues the work at home is getting too much for her from time to time. But when I talk about it she's totally in control.

    And my parents argue why I didn't make it with biology, but when I try to build a freshwater ecosphere for esthetic reasons and as occupational therapy they say I'm dirtying everything.

    ("Oh, so it's all our fault", they say...)

    If I talked to my family about their behaviour, they'd have reasonable explanations, and say I'm only "objecting for emotional reasons" and not thinking rational. And if I use rational arguments, well, they say "you can talk yourself out of anything"(well, it stays inb the family...). So I evade discussions and don't follow them through. As indicated, I guess it's a nice short-term strategy, as for the long-term, I have always been quite self-sufficient, come to think about it. Guess I'll be out by autumn again.

    And I have no idea if some other people have a similar background.

    1344:

    Looking at the timeline...

    The woman fell ill first and went to hospital; the man stayed at the home, but five hours later the ambulance was called in again to get him to the hospital.

    OK, two people going down in such a short time would get me somewhat nervous, there might be leaking gas or similar around. If they see drug paraphernalia, they might think about drug synthesis, which can involve production of toxic byproducts:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11407503

    So putting on the hazmat gear would seem wise.

    1345:

    None of it adds up and it never did - 12-18 hrs symptomatic onset (she was transported @10.21am ish), he was mid afternoon (3.34pm looking briefly at the Sky Live Footage). Puts the initial contamination earliest for her @ 4pm Friday, for him @ 9pm.

    "Strong Dose" means symptomatic onset would be a lot faster (cba to pull up the data sheets, easily found) putting us midnight - early am roughly. Not when you're allegedly searching bushes or dumpster diving[0]. If you need proof the entire thing has been subject to massive bullshit, here's a policeman very directly (for UK police / establishment) telling the press that this is being D-noticed into the back of beyond:

    [Oh and if you want to play silly buggers Martin, I strongly suggest re-reading this thread then reading this piece in full to spot when someone is cleaning up a FUBAR situation. CTRL+F 'vodka bottle']

    Paul Cosford, the medical director for Public Health England, specified that the novichok was in liquid form. He said it took effect between three and 12 hours after exposure, suggesting they could have come into contact with the nerve agent in the early hours of Saturday 30 June.

    Asked how long the novichok could last, Cosford said: “If it was outside, exposed to the elements, it gets washed away and that’s safe. Anything left over from March just wouldn’t be there by now.

    Basu was asked what would happen if it was in a landfill site now. He said: “If it was sealed in a container in a landfill site it would effectively be safe because it would not be touched by anyone. It would last probably, I’ve been told by scientists, for 50 years.”

    He added: “We have not found the container. You are absolutely right that I have no idea what it looked like.”

    Novichok used in Wiltshire 'could remain active for 50 years' Guardian 10th July 2018

    Know what else takes 50 years to become clear? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declassification

    However, the person running the D-notice is still being a fuckwit because he added this bit:

    He gave an extraordinary insight into the difficulty of searching for the novichok. He said that it took experts – all volunteers – 40 minutes to change into their protective suits and 40 minutes to “de-robe”. They were working in 40C (104F) inside the two main properties that are under investigation and could only work for 15 minutes at a time, compared with up to six hours in March. This meant they could only carry out one, two or three swabbings each session. Their blood was tested as they went in and as they left.

    Sky News Live clearly shows patient being handled / taken out with bog standard white crinklies (SOP for crime scenes) not Chem Wep gear.

    Will. Someone. Responsible. Educate. This. Fucking. Embarrassment. Already. And. Shut. Him. Up: Basu. You're. Not. Inspector. Morse.

    To further curtail the shit the Daily Mail has been throwing around, Dawn Sturgess was an alcoholic, not an intravenous drug user[1].

    This really ends the entire Amesbury discussion for us: having Times reporters needling the .RU embassy is not a good look, your Lord Master will be getting an earful as well. Spanks all around, especially if the fentanyl is traced and found to be an cover OP and the Times knew more than it was letting on to intel.

    ~

    Anyhow, England lost the Football.

    So, it's Trump visit, solar flare on the 13th, revolt of the Brexiteer Gammon Nation and mass riots then[1].

    Host is probably glad Poland is calm at the moment...

    p.s.

    @Trot - not sure if we can help your Brain get better. We survived though, you will too.

    Here endeth the lesson.

    [0] There's going to be some push-back @ Dacre for this - knowingly or not, he published a .RU counter-narrative and hindered a murder investigation.

    [1] There's also a huge angle here that will never be covered. Shiny Eyes, Fallen but still immune. [redacted] know what happened, very very angry out there.

    [2] Donald Trump visit to UK: President's trip sparks biggest police operation since 2011 riots... costing a staggering £8 million Standard, 11th July 2018

    1346:

    Oh, and Martin: feel free to grep prior threads on this, lines like:

    "Weird, .RU is just pure up trolling" and "Does anyone get better from..." and "It's about the daughter..." etc etc.

    Sk. case: no-one died.

    This case: woman died.

    We're not going to parse it out for you, but it's rule 101: you can kill your own citizens and no-one in the Great Game gets all that upset.

    Points to massive UK diplomatic attack on Russia, withdrawal of the Football team, the Foreign Secretary visiting COBRA and then seriously visiting NATO / EU / UN with strong words

    Oh, wait. None of that happened.

    If you want a brutally cynical and nasty version[0], .RU pulled a blinder of a "faux (kinda actual) attack, trolling youse, our citizens so FUCK OFF, neither died" and the UK responded.

    And fucked it up and killed a UK national.

    Accident: utter bollocks. Look @ the ex-husband.

    [0] That doesn't include actual events or [redacted]

    1347:

    SUb-reply to OY @ 1345 DT has really pushed the boundaries by claiming Merkel's Germany is in hock to Ru .... DT reminds me, now, more & more of someone that others have compared him to. Kiase Wilhelm I... Big Mouth, can't shut it, blunder around, annoys everyone, looks both for & against military "adventures" Time to be scared, yet?

    1348:

    If you like the look of Externsteine, take a look at Brimham Rocks, a really nice place to spend a sunny day.

    1349:

    "though I have no idea how to do a chi square or similar in this case."

    I have but, without the data, I can't do it. I wouldn't read too much into things like that, because Wiltshire police will have been as twitchy as hell, and panicking organisations or people do almost anything. And the leaking of 'interesting' police operations to the media is almost SOP nowadays - it's only when it's used to pillory the victim, and the victim fights back, that it gets much attention (yes, I mean you, Cliff). I agree with the multinominal one that they would be wise to fit Basu with a gag.

    What will be interesting if time passes, and they DON'T issue a warning about some specific container. Rowley may still be too weak to talk, he may not remember what he did, may never have known where the toxin came from (*), etc., but identifying the object, seizing it if possible, and warning the public about it, should be top priority on public health grounds. But it won't be conclusive, either way.

    None of this helps much with identifying WHO did it, of course.

    (*) He may have got it from contact with Sturgess or her clothing.

    1350:

    To return to an earlier set of mystery attacks(?), the sonic ones in Havana and now Guangzhou, they remain under investigation and CDC has now been invited to join the party. Just why CDC wasn't called in from day one is a bit of a puzzle, though I think the reason had to do with the fact that the initial attacks in Havana were against members of the intelligence contingent at the embassy.

    https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/white-house/article214695100.html CDC joins investigation into ‘sonic attacks’ in Cuba and China By Franco Ordoñez July 11, 2018 02:21 PM The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has joined the investigation into the sonic incidents that have injured U.S. diplomats and have confounded U.S. officials and scientists since first discovered last year in Cuba. Ambassador Kenneth Merten, an acting principal deputy assistant secretary of State, told the House Foreign Affairs Committee Wednesday that the CDC has joined a task force created by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that is investigating the unexplained health incidents. (snip) Last month, Pompeo told the committee that [the] task force would investigate the incidents after a new case this spring involving a consulate worker in China that increased diplomatic concern and intrigue. A year-long FBI investigation has failed to find any cause of incidents. Merten, who referred to the incidents as "attacks," said the United States still does not know the source of the incidents nor who is responsible.
    1351:

    My guess is the reason they have found nothing is that the FBI was looking for evil external plots. One possibility is that some standard item of diplomatic supplies is omitting a neurotoxin that has quinine-like symptoms, and I will bet the FBI did not look for that.

    1352:

    Here's a laugh for y'all: suppose it was a side effect of a new US intel device?

    1353:

    There's another explanation: China and Cuba are testing out chemicals. To misdirect the responders, they're also playing some sonic track or other. The people dosed think the sound is causing it, and the search for the agent goes in the wrong direction.

    1354:

    There's another explanation...

    There's something of a zoo of contending explanations at the moment. I'm cautiously encouraged by the appearance of CDC, as their epidemiologists probably have the best chance of figuring things out, or at least reducing the number of possibilities.

    To be a bit conspiracy-theoretical, the initial medical handling of the Havana cases has always seemed a bit odd. Why the University of Miami rather than Johns Hopkins or Walter Reed? And was the quick convergence on a diagnosis of mild traumatic brain injury a cause or consequence of the prior presence at UofM of a specialist in MTBI?

    1355:

    Allen probably has us on kil-file, so someone tell him that we've already linked to a couple of other incidents, notably in the 'Stans but one in Central / South America as well.

    We'd tell you the real reason, but... hmm. Anyone know if US staff used standardized vetted technology? whine of the silicon

    Anyhow:

    Trump blew up NATO (emergency session! drama! WTF is Old Man saying?!) Raab blew up Parliament (White Paper forces restart! Drubbing by the opposition!) and looked a "complete tool". (English Idioms are fun) IEA (mentioned many times here) are being investigated by the Charity commission (when stuffing QUANGOs and Governmental Oversight Committees, spot the ones with no teeth) Belfast is on day 11 (12?) of violent-kitsche-troubles-re-enactment-LARP but a bit friskier than usual (hello DUP!) Even Cohen in the Spectator is gunning for BBC bias (which is a bit ironic, but hey: looks like the Murdoch war declaration was real)

    The response (esp. in Germany) to Trump has been an 11 on the scale of annoyance though.

    Anyhow, we assume this is enough to create some kind of Pivot.

    ~

    nose wiggle

    Holiday time!

    1356:

    Moderator request:

    Please remove the redundant 1356. Operator error here, I'm sure.

    Done

    1357:

    For comparison, this happens when somebody finds a box with "radioactive - uranium" written on it in Germany.

    Personally, I wonder how they would have reacted to the stash some people into transmission electron microscopy keep.

    1358:

    Looks nice. Please note I've never been to Externsteine, maybe I'll change that soon.

    Part of me just says it'd better not be on summer solstice; another part of me says I'd fit right in.

    agitated walking around, "why do I always end up with the hippies?", looks at father's Hermann Hesse collection and sighs

    1359:

    Or a third party, who wants to cause trouble, though that's less likely in China. Or, especially in the China case, copycat hypochondria and misdiagnosis. Tinnitus often appears for no apparent reason, and the other effects reported can be caused by a LOT of different factors. Maybe the CDC will get somewhere.

    1360:

    The response (esp. in Germany) to Trump has been an 11 on the scale of annoyance though. I'm semi-seriously hoping that the Germans invent one or more interesting new words for his behavior. Anyhow, we assume this is enough to create some kind of Pivot. My intuition says yes, but the press (especially in the US) needs to manage/be aware of its distractability better.

    I have one interpretation for an above grep suggestion related to music. It sort of qualifies; have been thinking about "impossible" variants and analogues and metaphors since roughly May 2017. New moon tomorrow. (Things are feeling ... frenetic.)

    This is true, at least for those of us whos' minds melt in the heat. (Personal psychometrics data vs temperature align for me with this paper's results.) Extreme heat and reduced cognitive performance in adults in non-air-conditioned buildings and paper: Reduced cognitive function during a heat wave among residents of non-air-conditioned buildings: An observational study of young adults in the summer of 2016

    1361:

    Even people like me, who don't mind the heat, have trouble if there is no air flow. And many buildings are not well-designed for natural air-flow.

    1362:

    Hm, Wilhelm I. or Wilhelm II.?

    In the latter case, get the guy a copy of Dangerous Waters, an account for a naval warfare forum and maybe take him out into some LGBT bars.

    As for the implications of Russian gas for Germany, it would have been something of a stopped clock moment for Trump if he didn't mix it up with "more money for military"...

    1363:

    Yeah, isn't his standard MO Bully, BS, and Settle? Keep up the pressure--you'll get a nice settlement out of it.

    As for this current trip, I can but hope that some hacker is able to record audio from certain Twitter-enabled cell phones, and is then willing to publicize it. I've always wondered what a conversation between an US mole and his KGB controller sounded like...

    1364:

    My bad - finger problems. I meant Wilhalm II of course. "The Kaiser" as in WW I

    1365:

    "Anyone know if..."

    I suspect "ease of use" ( = "familiarity", = standard consumer kit) has a higher priority.

    1366:

    We are now seeing where our politicians' loyalties really lie:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-44807972

    I wish the press would stop bleating about hormone-laden beef and chlorine-washed chicken - those are the LEAST of the foulnesses that the USA had put into in TTIP, which is what any deal with the USA would would look like.

    1367:

    EC & others The DT went past me yesterday - about 2km away & approx 600 metres up ... ( A lead copter, a much larger copter, followed by two "Ospreys" ) Flying down the Lea Valley, presumably from arrival at Stansted ......

    The infighting & bitterness over Brexit & noit just the ultra-right but some others crawling to DT & the approaching-to-fascist poicies worries me deeply. Here is William Shirer on the lead up to the fall of the Third Republic, transcribed because my fucking Kindle won't highlight to copy .... In the ensuing years, I watched with increasing apprehension the 3rd Republic go downhill, its strength gradually sapped by dissention & division, by an incomprehensible blindness in foreign, domestic & military policy, by the ineptness of its leaders, the corruption of its press, & by a feeling of growing confusion, hoplessness & cynicism in its people. ...... Since the extreme Right & Left ( in the 30's) wanted for opposite reasons the end of the 3rd Republic, my affinities were with the Socialists on the left, the Radical-Socialists in the centre & the moderate conservatives slightly right of centre....

    Sounds horrbily familiar, doesn't it?

    1368:

    to Trottelreiner @1362 As for the implications of Russian gas for Germany, it would have been something of a stopped clock moment for Trump if he didn't mix it up with "more money for military"...

    These are all links in the chain. There's no need to hide everything much - with this amount of back-and-forth tug of war there will be never enough opposition to shift the situation to more safe options. Barring EU from cheaper gas reserves from Russia means that EU products will lose competitive edge and they sill be forced to buy from US. Exporting LNG from US to EU might be pretty expensive deal, but it means nothing if EU pays for everything (money will stay in US-owned supply chain, obviously). Profits will skyrocket and it will be possible to close the debt pit and calm down investors for at least till the new elections come up. Money for military? Yank the NATO chain every day 24 times a day and your vassals will be afraid to step out of the line because of Evil Lord Poutine. You will be able to sell them as much weapons, services and promises as you desire to.

    It does not matter if EU will be disintegrating, crashing and burning under a debt load similar to that of Japan (250% GDP or more). Doesn't matter if nobody still know what to do with all these numbers and somebody else will have to deal with them by more radical methods eventually. Dog eat dog. Fxxk the EU (c). I literally have no compassion for these people. Not a tiniest one.

    to Frank Landis @1363 As for this current trip, I can but hope that some hacker is able to record audio from certain Twitter-enabled cell phones, and is then willing to publicize it. I've always wondered what a conversation between an US mole and his KGB controller sounded like...

    This is not how it works. This is not how any of this works, like, what the hell. Gorbachev was always deemed to be a traitor, an idiot, or a useful idiot, but nobody in his right mind would suppose he was an agent or some remote-controlled puppet, stringed by outside agent. People say "he sold out USSR" but not because he was an double agent in deep cover, but because of his decayed morale, that allowed him to become some sort of a dealer. And in his eyes, of course, it wasn't even a betrayal, it was a heroic action in the name of everyone's benefit.

    Every politician of this class is surrounded by multi-layered network of internal politics so dence, that there is no choice for him but to sincerely believe in his ideals and act according to them, otherwise he will fail to hold on his position. DT his ilk are symptomatic figures, reflecting the difference between elite's perception of the world and the actual situation. They come and go in a very fast pace. If I were you, having a hint of experience from the past, I'd beware those who come next.

    1369:

    A chilling opinion piece from the Irish Times a few weeks ago (may already have been posted here-a-bouts):

    Fintan O’Toole: Trial runs for fascism are in full flow

    1370:

    Whine of the silicon? A few weeks ago, I spent FIVE HOURS in a datacenter with an FE doing repairs on our small supercomputer and its head node. I got to the point of distinguishing between the whine of the motors, and the hum of the air... and we are talking about thousands upon thousands, if not tens of thousands, of fans. After a while, your brain starts to turn to much. And we couldn't use the ear plugs (in a dispenser outside the door to the datacenter) because we had to talk.

    About the flaming idiot... ok, it's time to 25th Amendment him into an institution. With padded walls. He gives an interview to the Sun, where he says BoJo would be a better PM, and how May is destroying Brexit... and today, in a press conference with May, he calls him sticking a knife in her back "fake news". He clearly does not even understand anything....

    But, given the interview yesterday, I'd say it would be quite appropriate for May to give an interview, calling on the US Senate to impeach him. I mean, him interfereing in another country's internal political affairs deserves an equal and opposite response, right?

    I need to get a Trump baby blimp, so he gets the idea we don't like him in DC, either.

    1371:

    A difference: all the socialists I know do NOT want the end of this Republic, but to restore it to what it's supposed to be.

    Time to RICO the entire GOP.

    1372:

    Unsuprising This short piece from the Indie is another pointer. Having a ruling party called "Law & Justice" is another giveaway ( Poland ) too ....

    1373:

    Let's do a quick tally:

    Sun prints Presidential attack interview (Times is rumored to be running one, maybe Sunday splash, who knows) the day after the Tories give Murdoch full permission for the merger deal (Comcast might snaffle it). - Warning given / Reality Mapped

    Police just found a 'small bottle' containing nerve agent (allegedly) in the Crowley flat in Amesbury. Who knows how the story will play out? (I'll give even odds on 'thought it was booze' and/or the nastier 'perfume bottle' wherein our assassin becomes identified as a woman and our poor mopsie down-n-out lady thought she'd impress her new man with a 'fresh fragrance'. This is an old one, but judging by the talent pool down there, they might run it: also allows the .RU gov to claim the daughter was a double-agent all along! Interesting no-one is chasing the heroin / fetanyl angle - see prior discussions, hadn't been hitting the UK, it's more an American deal) - Warning given / Reality Mapped (with extreme fuzzing - someone did die after all).

    Tory party - Strong & Stable, Big Badda Boom and Davidcshipley coming to warn us of an impending ERG / IEA take-over and a big BBC swish-swosh incoming? (Big Ask tee-hee). - Warning given / Reality Mapped

    There's more, but 3 is enough to presume enemy activity.

    Know what Gnomes call Seagulls?

    1374:

    And, on another matter, here is the highly respected Patrick Cockburn:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-donald-trump-theresa-may-the-sun-boris-johnson-a8446171.html

    You may also be amused by the following, which I note does NOT mention the possibility that we have got one of our previous deductions wrong:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/nasa-universe-expanding-space-telescope-hubble-planck-esa-a8446411.html

    1375:

    Really? Our current president is not a career politician, he's a businessman who's been bankrupt four times. If you want a sampling of the analysis that he's a Russian agent, thanks to the money he received prior to entering politics, try something like http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/07/trump-putin-russia-collusion.html

    We'll see what the Mueller investigation turns up. Whatever they find, this isn't anything like Gorbachev, this is someone who was fundamentally not great at investing (but is a world-class con artist) getting money that he couldn't refuse, and then moving into politics with help from his financiers.

    1376:

    For precedents of DT's actions in the USA, maybe one should look to: Look at Warren Harding, maybe ( scandals ) & H Hoover ( Tariffs & protectionism ) ?? If DT really succeeds in starting a "proper" trade war, he will certainly not be re-elected in 2020 ( I would have thought ) Unless, of course, he's a front-man for Pence & the real christofscists.

    You are a lot closer to the action, what do you think?

    1377:

    That's an amazingly uninformative article, full of - is it adjectives? - and metaphors, and actually saying nothing at all.

    1378:

    By the bye, I hadn't realize you folks over there has such diverse opinions of the OrangeIdiot. So, what is it, lock him in the Tower, or feed him to the corgis?

    1379:

    Here's a question: anyone know what the dosage is for Novacek? How much do you need to touch, or ingest, or inhale, per kg of body mass?

    1380:

    Which? I assume the cosmology crap. I posted that because Greg and I believe that the astrologers lost contact with reality some time ago, and that is a further demonstration of it.

    1381:

    I think you forgot Andrew Johnson (Lincoln's successor), but otherwise, yeah.

    Right now, I'm not placing bets on the politics of 2020. Here are the problems: --The CIA's methods of destabilizing governments are now being used to subvert elections in the US (by the Republicans). --The KGB's methods of destabilizing governments are now being used to subvert elections in the US (by the Russians and the Republicans) --The democrats can't seem to pass an opportunity to screw up. We've got the same leadership that screwed us over for the last eight years, and they haven't gotten the hint yet that they need to move aside.

    --And then there's Pence, who's scarier than Trump in some ways.

    So hang onto your hats and plant those liberty gardens. Hopefully your kids won't be shipped over here in the next four years to try to take this place (or as peacekeeping troops).

    1382:

    I didn't know about "AJ" euw .... Hoiwever, regarding the "Dems" ... would people like her be an improvement? I would have thought so - if she's elected ....

    1383:

    Our current president is not a career politician, he's a businessman who's been bankrupt four times. I feel rather perplexed to find the difference on the first sight.

    If you want a sampling of the analysis that he's a Russian agent NYmag News&Politics Entertaiment Fashion Restaraunts OK, this is enough of my time lost already. I also fail to see a hint of analysis in here. It is one of the world-salad articles which contain some rewritten rumours that can circulate in self-reference for months without any credibilty. If a person can not explain his own opinion, it is not his opinion.

    Anyway, if (you suggest) the top flying leader can be shot down like that with a couple of meeting reels and wise investments, it is something wrong with entirety of your government. Or you are missing something big. By my own compatriot accounts and analysis, there's only one thing that interests DT in his entire career - to stay in the spotlight as long as possible and be as popular as possible.

    This is the sign of the epoch when people read internet publications (which can be adjusted after publishing) on everything and twitter posts to form their opinion on topic. He is the best clown in his troupe of clowns, he works for the audience in much more close manner than any politician would. The wishes of audience are random, so are his actions of opportunity - everybody are free to speculate all they want and everybody is in profit therefore. I don't feel like anyone is concerned about what happens on next day. So relax and enjoy the ride. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jG0o9RJEbY

    1384:

    [Vx]as estimated for 70 kg human males via exposure to the skin is reported to be 10 mg (0.00035 oz)

    This series of agents are a new class of nerve agents developed by the former Soviet Union. Very little information is available about them. It has been reported that this class of agents are 5–8, possibly as much as 10× stronger as VX. They are conjectured to be the unitary nerve agents from the binary novichoks. A-232 maybe the result of novichok-# and novichok-5 combining.

    So, 2mg-1mg range.

    So it's all bullshit, unless you're holding it in a non-aqueous solution.

    1385:

    On Wednesday, 11 July, a small bottle was recovered during searches of Charlie Rowley’s house in Amesbury. It was taken to the Defence, Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) at Porton Down, Wiltshire, for tests.

    UPDATE: Source of nerve agent contamination identified Met Police, 13th July 2018

    Check the the dates of our posts. Then check the diff and notice when "cosmetics" was added.

    You might not like the Time Stamps, know what we mean?

    CTRL+F vodka bottle.

    This end of things requires a little more than £100k / month to do & we're on holiday.

    1386:

    "novichock" V revealing comment on "Today" just now .... BBC interviewer: "We know that the guvmint has said that it's the Russians & possibly Putin & continue to insist that is the case .... but we haven't had any actual (solid) evidence to back this up, have we?" Respondent: "That's right, no, we haven't ... & independant analysis of the results is going to be very interesting"

    Or words to that effect.

    1387:

    Frank Landis @ 1381:

    "I think you forgot Andrew Johnson (Lincoln's successor), but otherwise, yeah."

    How does Andrew Johnson figure into the history of America's trade wars & tariffs? He wasn't really notable for his trade policies. Pretty much as soon as he assumed the office he made an agreement with Lincoln's Secretary of State William Seward to give Seward a free hand to continue the foreign policies (including trade) that Seward had implemented under Lincoln.

    The most important event to come from that foreign policy is the U.S. purchasing the Russian colony in Alaska at a bargain basement price. Seward did negotiate a treaty with Great Britain to compensate American shippers for damages inflicted by Confederate raiders built in the UK. The treaty lapsed when it was not taken up by the Senate, and the Grant administration negotiated a later treaty on the subject that gave the U.S. better terms.

    I just don't associate trade wars and tariffs with Johnson.

    1388:

    Greg Tingey @ 1386

    "V revealing comment on "Today" just now .... BBC interviewer: "We know that the guvmint has said that it's the Russians & possibly Putin & continue to insist that is the case .... but we haven't had any actual (solid) evidence to back this up, have we?" Respondent: "That's right, no, we haven't ... & independant analysis of the results is going to be very interesting""

    Yeah? Who were they interviewing if you don't mind my asking?

    1389:

    I know Bitcoin was discussed here earlier (in another thread).

    The US newspaper "The Wall Street Journal" has an interesting (rare because it's not-behind-the-paywall) article on how the Russian hackers indicted yesterday used Bitcoin to finance their operations:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-bitcoin-fueled-alleged-russian-hacks-1531517907

    1390:

    Actual BBC recoding HERE start @ 17 minutes in. Interviweee is Prof Andrea Sella of UC London .....

    1391:

    Just realised I hadn't replied to this, and had meant to. It's really interesting to me, as my grandfather's grandfather was from a town called "Friedland, Prussia". I've always understood this to be the town on the Lava that is now called Pravdinsk, near the southern edge of the Kaliningrad Oblast, though it's possible that it's the extant town in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. My great-great-grandfather moved to Queensland when there was as yet no country called Germany and no country called Australia either.

    My grandfather's generation were still in contact with cousins in Europe, some of whom would definitely have been Heimatvertriebene, up into at least the 1950s.

    1392:

    Holy Fuck: You're actually all sociopathic sociopaths.

    Kaliningrad Oblast, being the only exarch Russian holding that has nukes due to NATO stuff and due to the Naval ports the only one they're willing to actually go full WWIII on?

    Dude: nice little office you have their.

    Oh, and pro-tip, big-boy: "grandfather's grandfather": bollocks.

    The Battle of Friedland (June 14, 1807) was a major engagement of the Napoleonic Wars between the armies of the French Empire commanded by Napoleon I and the armies of the Russian Empire led by Count von Bennigsen. Napoleon and the French obtained a decisive victory that routed much of the Russian army, which retreated chaotically over the Alle River by the end of the fighting. The battlefield is located in modern-day Kaliningrad Oblast, near the town of Pravdinsk, Russia.

    Napoleon's overwhelming victory was enough to convince the Russian political establishment that peace was necessary. Friedland effectively ended the War of the Fourth Coalition, as Emperor Alexander I reluctantly entered peace negotiations with Napoleon. These discussions eventually culminated in the Treaties of Tilsit, by which Russia agreed to join the Continental System against Great Britain and by which Prussia lost almost half of its territories. The lands lost by Prussia were converted into the new Kingdom of Westphalia, which was governed by Napoleon's brother, Jérôme. Tilsit also gave France control of the Ionian Islands, a vital and strategic entry point into the Mediterranean Sea. Some historians regard the political settlements at Tilsit as the height of Napoleon's empire because there was no longer any continental power challenging the French domination of Europe.[16]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Friedland

    By your perverted thought, YOU ARE FRENCH MY SON.

    Srsly.

    It's getting real close to some serious Mind Wipe / Wet Work.

    1393:

    Oh, and Damien, do us all a favor: Americans are shit at history, having only dealt with 400 years of it, 200 meaningful. Don't pull this crap - you're shit at it.

    But, yes: Modern Russian, Kaliningrad Oblast really is a red line and one they will spank you for. It's basically 'hit nuke button now' so well done for your attempts to engineer WWIII, we're all impressed.

    And no, WWII is kinda late to the old game on determining "Germanic Peoples" in the region, ffs.

    TL;DR

    WOULD YOU SHITTY LITTLE 20TH C MINDS STOP APPLYING BORING CONCEPTS OF NATIONALITY THAT DIDN'T EXIST TO REGIONS THAT YOU HAVE THE MOST MINUSCULE OF GENETIC HERITAGE TO, YOU SOCIOPATHIC FUCKS?

    GERMANY DID NOT EXIST THEN, YOU UTTER FAILURE OF A MAN.

    1394:

    Oh, and PRO-FUCKING-TIP: Heimatvertriebene is only used by FUCKING NEO-FASCISTS these days as anything anyone cares about, let alone remembers.

    It's a fucking post-war Nazi calling card in Germany, ffs. But you roll with that one my boy, Americans telling Germans about Nazism is a BIG MEDIA SPEND these days.

    p.s.

    Yes, Annoyed: you've NO IDEA (we hope) what you just publicly declared to a significant majority of clued-up EU readers.

    Or you can join the Proud Boys[0] and strap on the armband, eh?

    [0] Note for Host and Twitter: Canadian Rebel Media is ultra-likud sponsored, as is Tommy (look up his legal fees receipt) - as stated, this time it's brown & islam, not Ze Jews. And they've spent a lot of $$ making sure of it.

    1395:

    “it is something wrong with entirety of your government. ... He is the best clown in his troupe of clowns, he works for the audience in much more close manner than any politician would. The wishes of audience are random, so are his actions of opportunity.” Very nice summary of the current situation here in the US.

    1396:

    @ 1392

    Oh dear. I would recommend a book: "Vanished Kingdoms" by Norman Davies. You really don't seem to appreciate hw much & how frequently frontiers "moved", especially in central/E Europe over the past 1000 years.

    As you say, you are shit at history.

    1397:

    MODERATORS last line of 1393 [ Particularly as Damien stated that Germany didn't exist, then ... ]

    And also, please delete this post of mine in its entirety, once you have read it?

    1398:

    Meh. I'm a bit skeptical about the whole 'leadership' is terrible thing for the Democrats.

    I'd argue that they are pretty close to some sort of weighted political views median person in the Democratic Party.

    Coalition elements include:

    Minorities: socially conservative, economically meh, distrusts the KKK and, by extension, Trump Pragmatists: wary of instability in country from inequality. Often elites, so actually tax sensitive, socially liberal Labor: socially conservative, wary of bosses LBGT: socially liberal, to some extent, economically meh Progressives: economically liberal, socially liberal I mean, yes, little balancing spiders. But, no, not wrong. I suspect the spider's main error is in underestimating misogny in America. Based on random sampling, female politicians get reflexive hatred...pretty much across the spectrum. The minority turnout in the last election is indicative.
    1399:

    Dude: nice little office you have their.

    Nice of you to say. Do you like the parlour palm?

    Heimatvertriebene is only used by FUCKING NEO-FASCISTS

    Well, it's a new term to me and I was responding to a post using it neutrally @1059. But if you say so - and I guess it makes sense. Partly it's the prevalence of such types that makes it hard to get neutral information in some contexts.

    I like to think that the Germans who came here in the mid-to-late 19th century were at least partly motivated to escape the nationalist movements around them. Like you point out, it was only a generation or so since the region was primarily the site of other people's battles (though I think the Swedes occupied it for rather longer than the French). I like to think nations are a cul-de-sac where we adapted to specific conditions and that as a species we'll outgrow them. Nationalism is ugly wherever it rears up and eats its host culture. It's ugly in the USA and the UK, it's ugly in Australia and Germany, and it's ugly in China and Russia. People who talk about needing to do the right thing by their nation or ethnicity have, usually, disengaged from humanity in general. I don't say they are irredeemable, however. Nationalism in its purest is a kind of ignorant venality, people in full possession of all the facts do not engage in it. Therefore we should strive to make such possession of knowledge commonplace, but this is a larger challenge in itself than most would accept.

    When I consider my own government's appalling treatment of asylum seekers, it helps to understand that pretty much every family has some connection to events that made refugees of some of their number. There but for the grace of Dog. We can all do better, we really can.

    YOU UTTER FAILURE OF A MAN

    Well, that's very possible too. I continue to try to do better, but success is never guaranteed.

    1400:

    As a head's up: read the posts as they're intended. e.g. don't take the insults too seriously. If we thought you were actually any of those things, you'd get a different response. We called you French, Monty-Python style: aka, we really don't think you're one of those Americans, but your references flag up all kinds of bad mojo / talking points / obsessions from a spider's viewpoint.

    Trot is German(ish): In Germany, it's certainly taught as part of the (de)Nazi(fication) period / curriculum, e.g: Flüchtlinge und Heimatvertriebene History department, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg PDF, legal

    Problem is - a lot of US sources heavily focus on it for a lot of reasons (anti-Communist, focus on the mass rapes etc, mostly from original pre-Cold War times - it was a central core part of the John Birch / white racial purity stuff, lots of heavy emotional anchoring). Reddit in particular has it as a core pillar of the nasties - and they're very good at focusing on the reality to get a wedge in. i.e. it's one of the focal points that starts the entire road to 'Hitler did nothing wrong' memes.

    Er, just so you know what you're doing in the Eyes of Watchers: it's a very technical term that raises a lot of hackles if coupled with a whole 'totally innocent guvner, just asking questions, it's history innit' attitude and you're not actually German or an academic.

    p.s.

    The NOISE is there to hide some specific information.

    You're not the failure, that was @Tommy English who is getting all kinds of US Ambassadorial attention and so on. They're being very blatant recently, even the BBC is having to take note. Which is the point, limited hang-out, the stupid racists make easy bait / mulch. SA / SS, remember remember. Translation: they're being very cocky 'cause they reckon they've got the entire Mueller thing sown up tight so have some racist razzle-dazzle distractions. (Also: Canada - there's an entire anti-Trudeau / rescinding 20+ years of sex education / rise of nasty Religious Conservatism that's tied into Tommy - Rebel Media is centred around the mythology rather than the actuality, it's easier to use the 'homeland as invaded' meme in Canada for the ignorant).

    The Good Guys rarely Win: unless you deploy things that have entirely alien conceptions of what the Rules are.

    1401:

    WOW, ỌYA-IYANSAN! YOU LIKE TO SHOUT A LOT, DON'T YOU!

    GERMANY DID NOT EXIST THEN, YOU UTTER FAILURE OF A MAN.

    I get it - I guess that Ireland did not exist until 1921 - it was just 'western England' or something.

    I must be a sociopathic fuck since I you're about to school me about something or other. School all you want - Blog Killfile, here I come!

    1402:
    Heimatvertriebene is only used by FUCKING NEO-FASCISTS these days as anything anyone cares about, let alone remembers.

    Depends. For remembering it, well, I did A-level History back in Gymnasium, and I remember a lot of terms neo-facists might use, hell, I might even use some of them, though usually quite tongue in check. Like pointing to the people offended by the Trump blimp and calling them "snowflake". Ok, that's not one of the terms I remember from school but from "Fight Club", but you might get the idea...

    "Heimatvertriebene" is a term used to describe people in post-WWII Germany, and it's somewhat more specific than "displaced person",

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Displaced_persons_camps_in_post-World_War_II_Europe

    another term used at the time.

    For caring about them, hm, that's a different story, I can empathize with refugees[1], and I can quite understand people want to see the place they were born or where their ancestors lived. If they want to live there, well, most of the areas (excluding Kaliningrad) are in the Schengen area. As for restitution, they should ask the industrialists or "intellectuals" who backed Hitler...

    Actually, the people the term "Heimatvertriebene" might be applied to and their descendents are somewhat all over the political spectrum, though the people caring about it as an identity are usually somewhat conservative.

    Yes, we had a girl[2] whose grandparents were from Silesia in our RPG group, she was quite to the Right, but no neo-Fascist.

    But when I tried to learn Polish[3] back in the late 90s we had a guy in his 60s or 70s stressing the teacher somewhat by asking about some old German names of some towns and cities; other than that, he was quite polite, I guess he just wanted to visit the places of his youth and talk to the inhabitants.

    And I remember fetching a friend in high school from a meeting of German Silesians his parents visited; Heiko was very decidedly not a neo-fascist, and for his parents, well, that'd be one of these areas where I'd have to synthesize some memories from back then, but I guess they were somewhat conservative, just like mine. Err, Heiko might have used the word "nigger" once or twice, but it was more due to his music taste...

    As for the official organizations, well, that's were we get into "neo-fascist" or at least "national conservatives not just flirting, but doing heavy petting with neo or not so neo fascists and wondering if oral and anal sex really counts[4]":

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federation_of_Expellees

    And as for their former president,

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erika_Steinbach

    sadly English wiki leaves out some of the more juicy details. Google for "erika steinbach twitter" if your German is good and you can take it. Luckily, fremdschämen usually requires some sympathy for the person involved...

    [1] Somewhat tempered if the persons in question don't empathize with refugees themselves that much. [2] Her going to M’era Luna and asking for NIN and Silke Bischoff from me[2a] might tell you something more about her... [2a] Err, yes, I guess I might be something of a goth after all. Might explain Heiko and me doing a biology project at an old cemetary... [3] Not that sucessful, I have to admit. [4] AFAIK you don't call an old nazi "neo-fascist".

    1403:

    And actually, at least in the 90s quite a few leftists would definitely have used "Heimatvertriebene", and actually as something they cared about. Though as the opposing side, of course.

    There is a nice little text by Wiglaf Droste about him visiting a "Vertriebenentag", though I can't find the book it's from[1]. The event is alluded to in

    https://www.neues-deutschland.de/artikel/440301.nazi-attacke-aufnd-schlachtenbummler.html

    (BTW, for German humor, might I point to Max Goldt)

    [1] Guess it belonged to a friend from my somewhat more drug fueled RPG group[1a], and he lost it when his appartment was flooded by rain water... [1a] Well, alcohol and THC. And midway through some antidepressants for me...

    1404:

    Err, AFAIR Damian is Australian.

    And as for the politics of rememberance, that'd be another issue.

    Funny thing about the German used in East Prussia, it had a Baltic Substrate, and it showed:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_Prussian_dialect

    I'm somewhat on the go, as a humoristic side note, I shared an appartment with a guy whose mother was German Silesian. We used to joke about Babylon 5, with him being Londo and me being G'Kar. If you know anything about Centauri and Narns in this setting it might tell you something.

    As for the history around WWII, it's somewhat complicated by NS support within the minorities:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Konrad_Henlein

    (no, not Heinlein. Who said that one?)

    1405:

    Naming things or people(s) etc can be tricky. I was talking to my neigbour & freind about something ( I forget what ) & the subject of Tribal/Racial supposed groupings cam up, so I said: " Well, we don't have to worry, becuause Aryans like you & I don't have to worry about such things, - oops, though, we're not supposed to use that identity any more are we?" He boggled slightly & then collapsed laughing - because he is considerably browner than I am, as his granparents came from Kashmir .....

    Context is all, maybe?

    1406:

    Genetically, linguistically, culturally etc., that is entirely true. It REALLY pisses me off when the racialist politically correct classify people whose ancestry is from the Indian subcontinent together with those from sub-Saharan Africa as "persons of colour". I stand by my description of our flavism as a genetic aberration in a highly inbred subpopulation.

    1407:

    If you want proof to your pivot:

    Sacha Baron Cohen's new media blitz is about to launch, and it's eviscerating the GOP gun lobby, extremist Israeli politics etc etc (amongst others).

    Proof of the pudding: both David Frum (neo-con) and Vox (wet liberal) are getting totally obliterated ratio wise for their 'hot takes' on it:

    I'm really really not loving this game where @sachabaroncohen repeatedly takes advantage of people's affection and respect for the State of Israel to deceive and humiliate them. David Frum, twitter, 15th July 2018

    Ratio: 1.3k 84 446

    Sacha Baron Cohen’s political provocations are exhausting and dangerous Vox, 13th July 2018

    Ratio: 1.1k 35 133

    There's lots more: basically put - wheels on the PR bus fell off. Total slaughter.

    The Front Fell Off YT, Comedy, Clarke and Dawe, 2:08

    p.s.

    AUS neo-fasc stuff is so embedded they don't even need Pauline Hanson to have more than one person in it. Want proof?

    Go look up the UTTER SCANDAL where $400-600 mil AUS for protecting the barrier reef didn't get given to numerous scientific or ecological groups but to a SINGLE NGO WITH SIX EMPLOYEES. And no-one complained.

    When your system is that corrupt, you don't need the reactionary vanguard, it's already in place.

    1408:

    Under questioning in Senate Estimates, departmental officials revealed $444 million had been given to the Great Barrier Reef Foundation without it having to go through a tender process.

    Labor senator Kristina Keneally questioned why the funding wasn't allocated using a public grant process which was "competitive, open and transparent" so others, including the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA), could apply.

    Senator Keneally said the foundation has six full-time members, and five part-time members.

    The board is comprised of representatives of Australian business, science and philanthropy and is supported by companies including BHP, Qantas, Rio Tinto, Google and Orica.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-22/great-barrier-reef-funding-labor-accuse-due-diligence/9785782

    That's more blatant than Malaysian Hedge Fund corruption and that's impressive - Democracy Damien?

    You're not in one mate.

    1409:

    HEXAD:

    MR J Reynolds, a message from our current Host: "When they come for me, at the very least I will hold my chin up high and know we attempted to change their path. And we know they will come, there are few of us and many of them"

    You. Chose. The. Other. Path. At best ostrich, at worst genocide enabler.

    p.s.

    Lola (noted IE activist, radical anarchist) died recently - and she was chased / abused / threatened all over by your Irish compadres and far right scum like Tommy's EDL: and yes, we have spent the TIME looking up all the various sectarian kill rooms in pubs, fake parties and nasty nasty business that went on.

    Let's say we're not too impressed by the last fifty years.

    Nuke it from Orbit

    1410:

    Nice. ;)

    I used to break a similar joke to a girl I worked with in a seminar when I was still actively studying mathematics[1]. Her father was actually of East Prussian ancestry (she had a somewhat Slavic sounding surname), but her mother was Iranian[2], so I said she could say she's really Aryan[3]. ;)

    And sadly she was going steady with someone else...

    Though actually, going by most definitions neither you nor me are Aryans[4].

    Let's do a little history here, back in the 19th century Aryan was used as a synonym for "Indo European" (or "Indogermanisch" in German, remember one Max Müller, incidently?)

    In this sense, everybody using an Indo European language is Aryan. Like you and me. And your Kashmiri neighbour. And Charlie.

    The Nazis used it as a term for ethnic ancestry; they somewhat equated it with "Germanic" and "Nordic", though usually "Non-Jewish". In this sense, You and your neighbour would be Aryan, my status is somewhat open to debate[5], and as for Charlie, he mentioned what happened to his relatives in Poland.

    Actually, let's go by this logic somewhat, with what we know today; if we speak about actual ancestry from the original PIE speakers, the best proxy marker would be Ancient Northeastern Eurasian through the Yamna culture[6].

    It gets quite funny here, Basques don't speak an IE language(well, actually most speak Spanish or French beside Basque), but they have quite some ANE ancestry; Sardinians, OTOH, speak a IE language (a Romance language, actually), but they have little ANE ancestry. And if you look at the Near Eastern "Semites", well, there is quite some ANE ancestry in the Near East; it's somewhat up to debate where it came from, ANE is not necessarily Yamna, but there have been IE speakers in the Levant since at least the 2nd millenium BC, though the Anatolian IE languages, i.e. Hittite and Luwian didn't take hold (last remnant were possibly the Isaurians). And then there are the Mitanni, who are actually somewhat closer to Indian than Iranian languages AFAIR.

    Just shows Adolf's fanboys were not just evil but also sloppy with science.

    Nowadays, linguists usually use "Aryan" to denote Indo-Aryan, Dardic and Iranian languages (not Drawidian, not Munda, not some other isolates...). I never got that far with my Sanscrit, so I don't count. We have actually wondered if there might be some actual ancestors who spoke an Indo Aryan language in our family given a certain, err, Mediterranean touch we have (my brother was taken for a native speaker when studying Italian and had a hard time explaining he was neither Turkish nor Greek when in Turkey...). Which, if you think about it, is again somewhat ironic or whatever.

    As for what it actually meant in the early Indo-Iranian cultures involved, it's hard to say and might have changed somewhat with time. One theory I heard was it was not so much ancestry but religion that decided if you were Aryan or Dasa. Do the right sacrifices, pay the right priests and you are Aryan. Though we might still label you Dasa when fighting with you. Not that holy war is necessarily better than racial war...

    Err, sorry if I repeat myself, I guess I posted something similar before. Indo European studies is a hobby of mine, though don't ask me about any sound changes...

    And then, there is this concerning Nazis and actual Aryans...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azad_Hind

    [1] Before I realized stress didn't become my cognitive abilities and I started to work part time as a sysadmin (again) and my old landlord wanted to lay parquetry and... Damn, it's been about 9 years... [2] I thought she might be Arabic first; she took it with stride. I knew one Iranian Chemistry student who would have lynched me first and then gotten inventive... [3] Well, at least if she spoke some Farsi. [4] As for your Kashmiri friend, err, he still [5] Nazis and Slavs is complicated. On the one hand, we are untermenschen. On the other, there are actually higher rates of blond hair and blue eyes in some Slavic speaking populations than in Germany. So my father got slated for schooling in Nazi Weltanschauung ("There was a piano I could use" was the only godd thing he had to say about it...). His cousin in Poland ended up dieing in a concentration camp, AFAIK. [6] Yes, it's quite ironic or whatever if you look at the area involved.

    1411:

    My neigbour's grandparents came to London, fleeing the "liberating" Pakistani rape-&-pillage mob, who were masquerading as their army ( or something like that ) He is British, born within 5 miles of here & a practicing surveyor/designer/architect - with a very slight local accent. He happens to be a mediumn-pale brown colouration.....

    1412:

    Trottel is good peoples.

    This nonsense is not:

    WARNING: Bannon is the ultimate Russian asset. He’s the Lord Haw Haw of Moscow funded White Supremacy spreading across Europe to destroy democracy, NATO, & global trade. #Brexit is your doom. Listen to this fool & you will break up the United Kingdom. #SaveDemocracy @Plot2Destroy Malcom Nance, Twitter, 15th July 2018

    M. Nance is like Louise Mensch but with a bit more credentials. It's nonsense and fodder for the Horses.

    Bannon made a deal with some very very nasty [redacted] and some very very woke things [us]. grep all the 'Stephen' references. We mimic the [redacted] because y'all need the training before they actually turn up [not a joke]. We're rather woke: torture us and we make jokes and enliven your spirit while you do it.

    Tired of Winning Yet? We Won, You lost.

    Even Western Minds must know that Faustian deals [we're not the Devil, ffs, but we sure as shit are faster than youse and will run that narrative to show the paucity of their side] with Genies in Lamps should look closely @ the fine print / subtle double-meaning-context? 42 / 25 years / Vortex in the Clouds to the Full Moon. Double Orca admist the waves.

    But the bet was never about that. It was about other things.

    'Breath of G_D'.

    Our. Kind. Do. Not. Go. Mad.

    Coda: Your kind do. Brittle like Candy in a Snowstorm.

    shrug

    Mirror, Mirror On the Wall

    ~

    Oh, and if you want a reference to your kill-files: The More they tried to ignore the rot and decay of their Empire, and the more they turned inwards to internal politics and vice, and as years passed without them being able to solve or even halt it, did the Empire slowly fall Some of us have read our Gibbon and other authors.

    :i s s q u i d:

    1413:

    Actually I too wanted to write a somewhat longer reply to the post about capital punishment[1] and sociopathy, problem is I have a little time management problem at hand. Might be depression, might be me reacting bady to being with my parents by blocking up, might be too much to do, might be drug withdrawl, I guess I go down on the stimulants involved with me somewhat. Just might be one of these days...

    There are quite a few other possible Friedlands in what was then Prussia. It might be difficult to find out which one, maybe looking after the relatives in the 1950s might help. If you want, there is a boardgamegeek link on my profile page and you can contact me through geekmail.

    As for fleeing from European nationalism, the context of "nation" was somewhat different in the 19th century; i.e. look at that one:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Young_Europe

    The middle of the 19th century was something of a hotspot concerning it:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_revolutions_of_1848%E2%80%9349

    Early German nationalism was hardly homogen, but it was mostly about

    a) getting rid of Napoleon b) unification of Germany c) liberal politics

    You have writers who are quite authoritarian and anti-minority, but you also have writers who are talking about some form of democracy. So quite a few people emigrating in the 1840s and 1850s might have been German "nationalists" who took part in the failed revolution of 1848/49 or people who fled from the rollback. The most well known of those would be one Karl Marx and one Friedrich Engels, but there is at least one German American politician with an interesting biography:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Schurz

    (I could go on about nationalism in the French Revolution, though then one might first talk about the FR in general...)

    Still, it's quite likely they just searched for a better (material) living; AFAIK the area around Königsberg/Kaliningrad is quite nice, but not that agriculturally productive.

    And actually I had little problem talking with my Russian friends about a certain philosopher:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immanuel_Kant#Tomb_and_statue

    Coming back to Australia, I have some relatives there, AFAIK one of my father's cousins moved there after WWII and married a half-caste; he used a variant spelling of my surname, so if your name doesn't sound somewhat Polish you are safe.

    [1] There is a very not-funny ironic or whatever story involving Mhairi/Freya and me in it.

    1414:

    I had to explain the Bengladeshi (then Eastern Pakistan) war of independence (broadly similar) to a Bengladeshi some weeks ago; he didn't remember,it's somewhat ineteresting in the context of how "history" gets across the generations. Or doesn't, in this case...

    1415:

    Err, the alternative to Russian gas is not US gas; there are quite a few other exporters of LNG around:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_exports

    Please note that Russia while Russia is a big producer,

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_production

    it's also a big consumer:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_consumption

    The same goes for the US.

    As for getting off Russian LNG, fracking is a method I'm not so keen of,

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydraulic_fracturing

    personally I think it's not worse than conventional mining, but sitting above about 150 years of coals mines I could tell you stories.

    Coal is bad for CO2 (and see "sitting above about 150 years of coal mines"), nuclear is a no-go in Germany, we might get somewhere with waste heat from other industries or electricity

    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockheizkraftwerk

    possibly from renewables, and we might try some ways to cut down heating costs, my personal favourite; quite a lot of the resistance to mandatory insulation comes from people in CDU/CSU and AfD, guess, you'd have to explain it to them it's their PATRIOTIC DUTY(tm) to do so.

    It's just that when fefe starts making jokes about our politicians cozying up to Putin so it stays warm in winter, you're in serious trouble (Note, usually fefe gets accused of having an anti-US, anti-Israel, pro-Russia bias).

    (Err, mods, could you delete the message above? I forgot the reference...)

    1417:

    Any easily transportable fuel is fungible, it doesn't really matter where it comes from as long as the cost of transporting it from producer to consumer it is kept low. Pipeline fuels like oil and gas are very fungible and there are well-developed and expanding networks of pipelines from Russia into Western Europe to deliver the fossil carbon needed to keep it from freezing to death in the dark during cold winters. Pity about the CO2 released into the atmosphere when it's burnt but them's the breaks.

    Quite a few fossil carbon exporters like Saudi Arabia and Russia are working hard to build new nuclear reactor capability at home so they can export more oil and LNG instead of burning it locally. They, of course, have accurate knowledge of exactly how much reserves they have whereas a lot of the fossil carbon importers seem to think the gas and oil they're buying in will always be available at reasonable prices and no shortages will ever occur.

    1418:

    Err, the alternative to Russian gas is not US gas; there are quite a few other exporters of LNG around

    You tell it to American producers. It may appear that you distinguish between LNG and natural gas as two different things, but of course you can sell LNG by liquefying natural gas, and US appears to be the leader right now. Also, one of the reasons why Russia is in LNG business, to begin with, is because this affair with Europe-directed gas has been dragging for good part of last two decades.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2018/07/11/trump-is-right-about-russian-energy-and-heres-what-he-can-do-about-it/#5534f381834b

    Coal is bad for CO2 (and see "sitting above about 150 years of coal mines"), nuclear is a no-go in Germany,CO2

    I'm not a specialist in coal, but I've heard there are good air-cleaning facilities out there as well as other types of coal usage like syngas cycle. And even after all these procedures, it is rather cheap for observable future, if you limit it's use. As for nuclear energy, too bad for Germany, they are falling behind so hard.

    possibly from renewables, and we might try some ways to cut down heating costs, my personal favourite

    This is far too familiar to us, pretty much every major city that has snow in the winter (i.e. every city in Russian Federation) has it's own CHPP, or several. In fact, USSR was very actively creating central heating systems as far as 80 years ago, so people wouldn't waste too much coal and wood on personal heating. There are still downsides - as a communal services, it relies on organizations and can be corrupted at times. And heat efficiency sometimes falls below 50% instead of normal 65+ (which means overall efficiency of 80%) because of obsolete equipment, insulation and problems alike. But it is being modernized and, given time, they will remain better alternative than others more "progressive" types. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHw-Xr2pzg0&t=6s

    Last winter I witnessed how our local heat pipe was ruptured and we lost heating (this never actually happened to me in my life before). It took less than 9 hours for the brigade to arrive, dig a 2-metre deep trench, fix the leak and put everything back up, while on the other years in other cities they couldn't fix hot water in summer season for months. Probably it helped that it was below -20C outside and temperature inside dropped by about 5C during this time.

    It's just that when fefe starts making jokes about our politicians cozying up to Putin so it stays warm in winter That's politicians' problem, not Putin's. Some (very little part of quite small minority) of our politicians are constantly alarmed about Chinese influence. IMO it is not because of China, but rather because they can't imagine their own sovereignty and prefer to stick to West.

    1419:

    About kids being shipped overseas... um, let's not talk about my son, who works for an agency I could mention, but then I'd have to kill you.

    On the other hand, I just saw that the International Court of Justice just got a new law, for leaders who order criminal aggression, y'know, like the unwarranted invasion of Iraq (and Bush and Blair would have been international criminals, officially).

    1420:

    The real thing wrong with the Dems is that they're idiotically trying to win the votes of former Republicans, who feel like they've been left behind as the GOP went to fascism and neoConfederacy, rather than the 40+% who aren't voting because they're repelled by right wingers on both sides.

    Oh, and let's not forget, in that quest, how they abandoned the unions.

    1421:

    um, no. A lot of Germans, and others, came to the US in the wake of the failed revolutions of 1848.

    1422:

    Except that the 40% who aren't voting ... because a lot of them are being prevented from voting? All the rigging-up of fake prohibitions & "qualifications" for voting, very reminiscent of the way brown would-be -voter were treated, pre Civil Rights, yes? This problem needs tackling, except that to do that you need to get a voted-in-majority to enact this, and .....

    1423:

    No - a lot of polls, and surveys, and interviews, report that a lot say they don't like any of the candidates. Hell, I've seen articles where a lot said they would have voted for Bernie, if he'd been the candidate, but couldn't bring themselves to vote for Hillary.

    1424:

    Thank you, I was going to ask you what had happened with the USSR's district heating systems after the collapse. Good to hear that they're still being efficiently repaired.

    "Other types of coal usage" are a red herring spawned from the desire of coal producers to keep producing it. Certainly the reaction C + O2 -> CO2 can be carried out by numerous indirect routes as well as by direct combustion, but the total energy available and the end product are the same for all of them.

    1425:

    Greg Tingey @ 1424

    "Except that the 40% who aren't voting ... because a lot of them are being prevented from voting?
    All the rigging-up of fake prohibitions & "qualifications" for voting, very reminiscent of the way brown would-be -voter were treated, pre Civil Rights, yes?
    This problem needs tackling, except that to do that you need to get a voted-in-majority to enact this, and ....."


    If they don't tackle the problem BEFORE they get a "voted-in-majority", they're never going to get a "voted-in-majority"

    1426:

    "Other types of coal usage" are a red herring spawned from the desire of coal producers to keep producing it. Certainly the reaction C + O2 -> CO2 can be carried out by numerous indirect routes as well as by direct combustion, but the total energy available and the end product are the same for all of them.

    Except diversification is very important. Doesn't matter what you burn, oil, gas, coal, kerosene, mazut, there result is always the same... almost the same. The coal is notorious for it's other types of air pollution, especially smog, soot, oxides and heavy metals. In 1980s USSR was planning to produce a lot of energy using coal from pretty large deposits in Kazakhstan, and transmit it using ultra-high 1150 kV transmission lines towards Urals. But the project stalled eventually, because the coal was so dirty with soot it created danger to health, so they stepped down the plan and now only operate 10 units instead of planned 16. They are using a lot of filtering too, nowadays. The plant also has largest chimney in the world for the same reason. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ekibastuz–Kokshetau_high-voltage_line https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ekibastuz_GRES-2_Power_Station

    Chinese are suffering from coal as well, they would invest a lot of money to clean their air. So they are witching to different types of fuel, but not to renewable sources, that would be suicidal. IMHO, "CO2 pollution" is the real red herring which allows people to reroute the much needed funds that can make air and land cleaner and energy more efficient - to projects of questionable efficiency. They are just money sinks, so to say. https://www.smh.com.au/world/beijing-closes-last-big-coalfired-power-station-in-push-for-clean-energy-20170320-gv20hx.html

    1427:

    China is planning to build a lot of new coal-fired power stations, so-call super-critical and ultra-critical plants which are coal-burners for the 21st century. They operate at much higher temperatures than regular coal-fired furnaces and are more efficient. They also come fitted with high-efficiency filtration and smokestack processing capabilities to virtually eliminate a lot of the air quality problems such as sulphur, particulates, nitrous oxides etc. paid for by the extra efficiency of the combustion process.

    https://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/print/volume-25/issue-3/features/critical-thinking.html

    They are still going to dump billions of tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere every but no-one really cares that much.

    1428:

    IMHO, "CO2 pollution" is the real red herring Your humble opinion is wrong. The literature is vast, and increasingly clear and dire (in that dry and terrifying scientific way). Some of it is Russian[0], too. Also you're wrong about the economics, excepting perhaps for states with lots of easily extractable fossil carbon resources and ignoring (or worse) the long term global costs. (Right about nuclear though; we have little real choice unless major breakthroughs are made in bulk storage.)

    Re gas vs coal, see Table A.II.4 2011: Annex II: Methodology. In IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation For electricity generation, CO2eq/kWh from natural gas is 1/2 that for coal.

    Is climate change denial (or lack of concern) mainstream opinion in Russia?

    [0] e.g. The East Siberian Arctic Shelf: towards further assessment of permafrost-related methane fluxes and role of sea ice (2015) and Current rates and mechanisms of subsea permafrost degradation in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (2017, grep shows it linked previously by the one(s) with many names )

    1429:

    We're still lingering around protecting Host's Peachy little ass.

    Fun Facts from the Reality Zone:

    1) US peeps - that whole NRA Witch you found - all costed in, and it'll come and bite you - her defense is already rock solid, she's a play (DOJ - not really on the side of the 'people' here - sure, they'll burn a couple of obvious ones, but this is a play). This game is waaay beyond that.

    2) Ditto UK peeps noticing Parliament being wo(u)nd up 5 days early: May now siding with ERG. Sigh. Expect some vicious rampant Islamist outrage within about.. hmm. 4 days.

    3) Davidcshipley is desperately retweeting nonsense about how Capitalism = efficiency in farming (with zero knowledge of supply chains, actual soil qualities, fertilizers, soil degradation etc: srsly - these fucking chumps seem unable to understand even the basics of dynamic systems)

    4) Drought with France, Finland, Spain, UK, California, Texas etc and crops. It's on. Oh, and y'all managed to cripple yourselves with immigrant labor shortages at the same time: IT'S GONNA BE SLAVE PRISON LABOR MY FRIENDS

    5) Bored: EU can't ditch IMF / BIS stuff and actually think, UK is stuck on the wank-fantasy of Empire, the US is just pure coke-driven-snort-that-shit-and-do-slavery now.

    6) The West ate its children. And the world. And we're fucking bored of your shit.

    7) Abrahamic religions can get fucked as well. Nasty little bastard Minds.

    8) Y'all never came close to our talents, so meh. Puff the Magic Dragon (we see you Penny, we see you: a little bit of respite / pardon comes your way).

    Zzz.

    Sing.

    Shine.

    Swim. ----- THIS IS THE ONE Y'ALL DELETED FROM THE WEAVE ----

    For the [redacted], reverse that: we're the firestarters, remember?

    ZZzzzz.

    'Anti-Christ'. Fuck me did you lose the imaginary wars before it was even written down.

    1430:

    Since we're doing this:

    Twitter people who know shit all and you shouldn't place your faith in them -

    https://twitter.com/20committee https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson https://twitter.com/sarahkendzior

    insert a whole load here - basically anyone who MF references - the entire ShareBlue crowd are so out of their depth it's no longer funny.

    And for a doozy:

    Because what could possibly go wrong with Apocalypse cultists straight out of a @cstross novel with direct access to strategic bombers and nuclear weapons? Or writing the President's tweets? Yonatan Zunger, Twitter, 16th july 2018

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1018530167902228480

    No, it's not Dominionist (although they worship them) and it's not Dugin / Ultra-odd-Bosh/Fascs (although, again, they worship them) and it's not Trump (threaded Tweet, "his" first).

    It's one of the [redacted]. Low / Mid level at a glance, 2nd & 3rd tweets aren't direct communication. Fuckers aren't up to speed on your slang like us.

    Oh, and throw that football.

    "It's Coming Home".

    Oh, and never think we're fucking around: LOA and Angels - tell me the difference?

    ~

    It's On.

    1431:

    Triptych: Oh, and basically 90% of the entire UK Conservative Party is toast / gone / Predated / Mind-Eaten now. A whole slew of Labor as well.

    They don't know it, that's the trick of [redacted]. Bannon (Stephen) at least had the courage to place his health and sanity on the line (like our hosts, see?) and make himself a martyr / Avatar.

    And no, this isn't about H.S.S boring shite like you think: Baron Howard of Lympne - one of the hold-outs, courageous brave soul, so respect where it's due.

    How Do I Get Eyes Like That? YT, Film, Pitch Black, 3:06

    grep: "we used to be able to see in the dark"

    Also: "we used to be able to smell you from 100 meters away"

    Just marking territory for the actual [redacted] audience. And we know they're reading.

    1432:

    grep: "we used to be able to see in the dark" Also: "we used to be able to smell you from 100 meters away" That was one my favorite posts of [yours]. Quite helpful, though it didn't answer the question directly. How Do I Get Eyes Like That? You might have liked my eyes today. The ophthalmologist's assistant was amused when I mentioned figuring out how to dilate pupils at will as a <10yo kid[0], but her eyedrops worked better. (Note: I made a choice to use a real (common) name on the internet about 20 years ago. It has had irritating consequences; constraints mainly.) (Note: I am not one who gives up.)

    [0] This is apparently a thing now but really it was just cycling through assorted mind/emotional states, and finding ones strongly associated with pupil dilation. Never intentionally used it while flirting because that would be dishonest. Never did figure out how to dilate only one pupil though. And pupil constriction wasn't interesting, or rather the mind/emotional states associated with it sucked.

    1433:

    I don't think I said anything that would preclude that (there were many destinations). What did I say that you feel you are disagreeing with?

    Most Germans who came to Queensland in the 19th century enjoyed some sort of assisted passage (paid by the Queensland government). It's interesting to compare places of origin - in many cases it's a particular village, but taken collectively there are clusters. It sort of suggests the extent to which Queensland's immigration agents traveled to promote the opportunity.

    1434:

    The funny thing about my German side is that they all came out to Queensland before 1900. They settled in rural Lutheran communities around South-East Queensland that were largely endogamous and some were still mostly speaking German in my lifetime (though most learned to assimilate starting from, oh hey, 1914). I have the impression most were from towns and rural communities between Gdansk and Kaliningrad and the surrounds (most closer to Gdansk as it happens).

    So anyway, no probably not related :)

    Unfortunately, I think by this time, all the relatives who'd have known who the cousins were will have died (one of my grandfather's brothers is still alive, but he lost his capacity years ago). I'm pretty certain there are letters preserved in various branches of the family, but it's hard to keep track. These are very conservative rural people whom I generally would only see at funerals, and don't talk with much even then.

    I actually mentioned Kant at my grandfather's funeral, the conceit being that my grandfather possessed an ethical sensibility closer to the categorical imperative than to the sharp practicing conservative Christians around him. It went down better than you might expect...

    I also have time management problems effecting how often I'm likely to respond here, mostly in terms of just not having enough of it to fit everything in but partly in terms of being too tired after longer or busier days.

    1435:

    Gorbachev was always deemed to be a traitor, an idiot, or a useful idiot... People say "he sold out USSR" but not because he was an double agent in deep cover, but because of his decayed morale... And in his eyes, of course, it wasn't even a betrayal, it was a heroic action in the name of everyone's benefit.

    I'm curious as to what you think the alternatives were? The USSR was failing, slowly. Centralised planning wasn't working; and the pressures to allow decentralisation were growing. Gorbachev was trying to encourage local initiative, he was trying to prevent it from being stifled by bureaucracy. He was also working 18-hour-days in an attempt to get everyone behind his plans.

    So, how do you think a less "morally decayed" Premier should have handled the decentralisation / independence movements in the Baltic States? The slow slide in living standards that comes from spending a huge proportion of GDP on your military? The inefficiencies that come from an idealistic belief that if you just plan things centrally, with a little more detail, that this time the Five-Year Plan will deliver?

    The conservatives who wanted things to carry on just as before, mounted a coup (and as an interested observer, that was rather scary). The criminals who could see that there was profit to be made, were itching to tear things apart and grab the choicest morsels. Gorbachev couldn't hold it together, as much as he tried.

    What should he (or an alternative in his place) have done?

    1436:

    to Bill Arnold @1428: The literature is vast, and increasingly clear and dire (in that dry and terrifying scientific way). Is climate change denial (or lack of concern) mainstream opinion in Russia? Not that I heard about such. You got it wrong, about that part, I'm not in denial of climate change, I do admit that climate can and will change, and we humans altogether have means to adapt to it. However, I'm very much aware of other cohort of people, who are exhibiting very special behaviour - they are adamant for their very simple ideals, they are constantly on lookout for "denialists", they like to use ad populum arguments and they would like to prosecute anyone who openly disagrees with their undeniable truths. Are you, by any chance, one of those people?

    to Martin @1435: I'm curious as to what you think the alternatives were? The USSR was failing, slowly. Centralised planning wasn't working; and the pressures to allow decentralisation were growing. It is pretty obvious. Stabilize the economy, reform planning methods, relieve the pressure, etc. Make people believe and see that dissolution of a country is the worst possible alternative. Unfortunately, he did not posses the capacity to manage such complex task. Oh, I am aware, that for anyone in the First world it is seen as best possible outcome, but this is a kind of moral relativism only stubborn retrograde would enjoy. NATO would tolerate any fanatical, despotic, chauvinistic or tyrannical government so long it is working in their favour, and so they did end up covering the worst betrayal of democracy world have ever seen so far. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Union_referendum,_1991

    Gorbachev was trying to encourage local initiative, he was trying to prevent it from being stifled by bureaucracy. You see, he wasn't trying to prevent some sort of bureaucracy, he was the embodiment of that bureaucracy. Had he started to work in right direction back in 1985, he would have denied the escalation, but instead, he accelerated it. He allowed certain people in the governments to form and convey the plan to dissolve USSR and settle the deal on their terms, he could have prevented it, but decided not to. After all, these were the same people from his own party who then betrayed all of their ideals. Because for them, it was merely a career promotion. Who are these people? Well, their names aren't too famous, but very definitely known, and most of them are still alive. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belavezha_Accords#Signators

    1437:

    W.r.t. Gorbachev. Um. Yes, in THEORY, but he would have had to be a superhuman to do that. What I regard him as an absolute menace for was being too trusting towards the west - he should have insisted on proper non-hostility treaties, including when he allowed the reunification of Germany. I remember him and others doing their best to join up with western Europe, and even mooting the possibility of joining NATO (which was rudely and publicly rejected). It took a decade to push Russia to elect a strong man to stand up to the encroachment, and another decade to turn it into an enemy, but we did it.

    1438:

    sleepingroutine 1436 Agree that there are Climate Puritans who want us all to smash up our living standards to achieve salvation (oops, what a give-away) by removing CO2 emissions. BUT There is another way, that we still have not yet got to, which should be possible, to slow down & rverse our "toxic" emissions etc, but without living like 13thC peasants. You seem to think that the middle course does not exist.

    Which seems to be a failing of yours, as evidenced by your remarks on Gorbachev "reform planning methods" - how? "... the dissolution of a country is the worst possible alternative" STOP RIGHT THERE It was not, & never was "A Country" Union of Soviet Socialist Republics - was actually a Russian Empire. What about the vast majorities of the peoples in (at least) Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, "the five Stans ( Turkmen. Uzbek, Kazakh, Kyghiz, Tajik ) & probably Ukraine ... who really had quite fucking enough of the communist religion & its cruelties. I trust you note the one I left out - which once-upon-a-long-ago-day was called "White Russia" ?? Never mind the forced colonies in: Poland, E. Germany, Czech/Slovak, Hungary, Rumania, Bulgaria ??

    1439:

    Sorry, I'll disagree. The entire US - both the media, the politicians, the late night talk show hosts, and folks I know who try their best to ignore the news, it's been so bad, are all melting down. The NYT, the "paper of record", has an op-ed that Trump committed treason, the NY Daily News has a front cover cartoon, and while a lot of the GOP is either silent, or being mealy-mouthed, no one, excpet for some (not even all!) of Faux News is screaming.

    As far as I'm concerned, Thurs & Fri, the intervew with the Sun, and then the press conference with May, is clear and sufficient evidence to 25th Amendment him and send him to his padded cell.

    But the press conference with Putin, the literal wink, on air, after their private tete-a-tete... and siding with Putin against the FBI? I can say, with 100% confidence, that every single person in the FBI (and the rest of the intel community), read that as "Try and get me, suckers"... and I'll bet that 90%, at least, are saying, "Game on".

    He is going to go down. The question is how many other Reptilians are going down with him, and will this also kneecap the NRA?

    1440:

    You're missing a key element to the entire NRA - .RU Operative involvement (which is fairly moderate if you read diplomatic cables instead of the NYT to get clued in - $30 mil 'buy in' is small fry compared to what the M.E. spends). Essentially, you're still (mentally) playing "CCCP = Russia", which is simply untrue. Not helped by the fact that some idiot from the US media managed to spam a meme stating that the .RU lady was in the infamous Trump White House meeting with the Russians (she wasn't, but 50k+ shares later she managed to notice and post a "er, maybe I was a bit wrong, not sure") which is precisely the wedge angle / "FAKE NEWS" the Trump operators were waiting for. Warned you, we did.

    Shareblue = failures.

    Seriously: the Blue Side are just as dumb and worse, weaker (in terms of $ / political clout). Bet you think the Strzok hearings are going well, right? Wrong:

    How is Peter Strzok real. M. I. Cheong twitter 12th July 2018 - Cheong is a tiny bit player from back in #gamergate and various other cultural media places - but that's a semi-safe thread showing the array of memes Strzok is feeding. It's crack-cocaine for the Base. And DC insiders think it's 'bad for the GOP / Trump'... Jesus Wept, dinosaurs.

    Any and all prior bets are Off. Trump knows he's trolling: it's because they reckon they've got a way through Mueller.

    Some heavy hints:

    The Council for National Policy, a highly secretive group, is a key venue where mainstream conservatives and extremists mix. SPLC, May 2016

    How Russia Became the Leader of the Global Christian Right Politico, Feb 2017

    The Fellowship (Christian organization)

    The #nationalprayerbreakfast is all over the affidavit for Russian spy Maria Butina. I wrote two books, THE FAMILY & C STREET, about its organizers, the most influential - & secretive - Christian conservative group in DC, known as The Fellowship & internally as The Family. Jeff Sharlet, twitter, 16th July 2018

    Yep. #NationalPrayerBreakfast organizers The Family believe God calls them to minister to the “wolf-kings” of the world, the better to make “a worldwide family of 200 leaders.” It’s a transactional faith; piety not required. Jeff Sharlet, 17th July 2018

    Please remember that every single US politician, including HRC is a member or affiliated heavily to these types of groups (whose influence is several tiers above AIPAC etc). That's why the .RU NRA entry was at one of those stupid prayer breakfasts (!).

    The Kremlin is currently poking the UK because Brexit is imploding noisily all over the shop.

    Here's The Mirror and N. Soames: Churchill's Tory grandson Nicholas Soames declares 'blow up the whole damn thing' in powerful speech on Brexit 'cheating' The Mirror, 17th uly 2018. Soames is old-skool Tory, defense / risk insurance (City) industry £££.

    Here's Dacre gunning for Boris: Boris Johnson broke rules by failing to tell watchdog he is resuming £275,000-a-year newspaper column after quitting as Foreign Secretary Daily Mail, 17th July 2018

    Now read the actual link address: breaks-rules-not-telling-authoritarians-Telegraph Not 'authorities', 'authoritarians' ---THIS IS NOT A MISTAKE---

    Now go re-read comments on Oblast exclave where everyone decided we were being rude for shouting "sociopaths". Trump just had a Fox Interview with Hannity: Trump Says ‘Nuclear Warming’ Is Biggest Problem Political Wire 17th july 2018

    Oh, and don't forget: Bolton & Co and Russia and Israel still have a little project they really want to get off the ground: Up to 22 killed, including 9 Iranians, in Syria strike blamed on Israel – report Times of Israel, 16th july 2018 - oh, and of course, Gaza / Palestinians where another 200+ or so people have been killed / maimed in the last couple of weeks.

    Oh, and if you like your minor characters being re-introduced in the series mid-season: Scaramucci's Path to $20 Billion Runs Through a Hot China Market Bloomberg, 17th July 2018

    And, of course, there's a huge stunt involving dildos, Putin and the Wall St. Bull: No, really - from Reddit where it was spotted (btw, NYPD / the Ghost Eye Surveillance of the Bull is top-notch - this was a deliberate / allowed protest, not a student prank: the total cost of all those dildos is at least $1k).

    Tl;DR

    You're living in the 20th C still: as are most of your compadres. This is a very bad idea. Do a sentiment analysis of "Hell", "Hell world", "wrong timeline", "Hell timeline" etc. Armageddon is the goal, remember?

    None of the above is as important in noting that a [redacted] is running your President's Twitter. We are not joking when we say "that's a [redacted], openly transmitting".

    This is the Voice of the Mysterons: we need to regenerate.

    1441:

    https://aiatsis.gov.au/explore/articles/aiatsis-map-indigenous-australia

    "Wolf-Kings".

    Be ever so careful what you wish for. Ever. So. Careful.

    1442:

    I remember him and others doing their best to join up with western Europe, and even mooting the possibility of joining NATO (which was rudely and publicly rejected). It took a decade to push Russia to elect a strong man to stand up to the encroachment, and another decade to turn it into an enemy, but we did it.

    That's an interesting perspective, but I'd suggest that it's oversimplified and inaccurate. Here's the NATO perspective - I acknowledge it will describe things from a slanted perspective, but it's no more slanted than your position.

    It was going reasonably well (other than the ethnic cleansing in Kosovo, and NATO response) until 2008, when Russian troops invaded and occupied parts of Georgia.

    1991: Russia joins the North Atlantic Cooperation Council (later renamed the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council), created as a forum for consultation with the countries of Central and Eastern Europe following the end of the Cold War. The Soviet Union actually dissolves at the same time as the inaugural meeting of this body takes place.

    1994: Russia joins the NATO Partnership for Peace (PfP).

    1996: Russian soldiers deploy as part of the NATO-led peacekeeping force in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

    27 May 1997: At a summit in Paris, Russian and Allied leaders sign the NATO-Russia Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security and establish the Permanent Joint Council (PJC)

    June 1999: Russian peacekeepers deploy as part of the NATO-led peacekeeping force in Kosovo.

    September 2001: President Putin is the first world leader to call the US President after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, which underscore the need for concerted international action to address terrorism and other new security threats. Russia opens its airspace to the international coalition's campaign in Afghanistan and shares relevant intelligence.

    March 2001: A joint NATO-Russia Resettlement Centre is officially opened to help discharged Russian military personnel return to civilian life.

    May 2002: NATO opens a Military Liaison Mission in Moscow.

    28 May 2002: At a summit in Rome, Russian and Allied leaders sign a declaration on "NATO-Russia Relations: A New Quality" and establish the NATO-Russia Council (NRC) to replace the PJC.

    28 June 2004: At an NRC meeting of foreign ministers in Istanbul, Russia offers to contribute a ship to NATO's maritime counter-terrorist operation in the Mediterranean, Operation Active Endeavour (Russian ships join the operation in 2006 and 2007).

    April 2005: Russia signs the PfP Status of Forces Agreement (later ratified by the Russian parliament in May 2007).

    June 2005: NRC defence ministers endorse a "Political-Military Guidance" aimed at developing, over time, interoperability between Russian and Allied forces at the strategic, operational and tactical command levels.

    1443:

    The chritofascist links posted by O-Y are very informative & horribly worrying. It's obviously a race ... Can they get their stuff enacted before the 2020 election, or rig a state of emergency before that date (Gilead) ... otherwise they are going to lose & go down & to jail. Close call, very close call ....

    1444:

    while a lot of the GOP is either silent

    Interestingly, My Congressman (Will Hurd, TX-23) and My Senators (Cruz, Cornyn) have expressed unhappiness with the Helsinki proceedings. Hurd has shown previous signs of not being totally Of The Body, and it's conceivable that he might go independent. C&C no, but then what do they do with their unhappiness? Cruz plays pretty much to the same base as Trump, Cornyn not quite so much, but he can't get crosswise of them either -- so what do they do?

    https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Will-Hurd-Trump-got-played-by-Putin-Texas-13081535.php

    1445:

    to Elderly Cynic @1437: Yes indeed! Most of the time, miracles do not happen. Not many people remember the period between 1922 and 1932, when USSR was actively cooperating with soon-to-be capitalist sharks to build an industrial revolution, only for them to realize that it was a preparation for harder times to come.

    to Greg Tingey @1438: You seem to think that the middle course does not exist. Personally, given the trend DOES really exists, I would not think it is possible to reverse it completely - there's too much inertia. It would require truly inhuman amount of cooperation free market economy could not allow itself, so it created a mind game to believe itself to be "responsible", "ecological", "environmentally aware" and so on. I do agree I might be wrong, my opinion is strongly politicized, and there's still enough chances to reverse it and put everything into relative order. But the longer I am observing the public on the west (this thread included), the more I see that it is as impossible for this society as for hunter-gatherer tribe to plant a garden.

    who really had quite fucking enough of the communist religion & its cruelties I really fucking sure they did not crave for another round with US-controlled occupation and colonialism. Especially when it involves destroyed industry, ruined demography, rampant nationalism, and ethnic clashes, and so on. There's only one way it can end for them, the people knew how it is going to end.

    Here, it took me 5 minute to find something like this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0El5CCntk0

    to Martin @1442: I must admit, NATO policies do mind if the Russia would just cooperate with them and join them in good faith, however, with a slight twist that makes it all but impossible. NATO would like to have Russia served on a plate, like it was with Yugoslavia. You do remember what happened to this country? They raided it, bombed it, flooded it with traitors, mercenaries and contraband weapons, and sold it out to criminal cartels. It is absolutely impossible for them to treat Russia as united and independent force that could affect balance in the alliance. Oh, and, given the amount of stockpiled nuclear weapons, what would you expect to happen with the rest of the world?

    As I described before, in 2008, it was a time to put the plan in motion, so, Georgian army (armed, trained and supplied by NATO), invaded de-facto independent republic to forcibly "restore constitutional order", whatever the fuck it supposed to mean. And the bid has failed, making them increasingly nervous ever since then.

    1446:

    is as impossible for this society as for hunter-gatherer tribe to plant a garden. Oh, yeah ?? Try reading this, then Oops, as the saying goes. Actually, long before "proper" agriculture, many so-called "hunter-gatherer" groups prcitised semi-agriculture ... it was only after the Younger Dryas that relative climate stability set in, making agriculture ( in the formal sense) possible ...

    "communist religion & its cruelties" And you disagree? WELL YOU ARE WRONG ... I am old enough to have walked right up to the notices that said:

    Achtung Zonengrenze Minen Lebensgefahr

    Stick it where it hurts ... I also used to work in the same laboratory as someone ( A Sudenten German-Czech ) who had been in the Konzentrazionslaager & ALSO in the Gulag ... who escaped to "the West" by jumping off an E German "duty-free"( so to speak ) ship with his wife & daughter into a Danish harbour in February ..... So .. no .. the US semi-colonial empire in the Central Americas was horrible & cruel, no doubt about it, but the USSR in Europe made the former look like a job for amateurs.

    "like it was with Yugoslavia ... You seem to ignore that Yugoslavia self-destructed, thanks to an egocentric, control-freak bastard ( Milosovic ) & only then did people have to start to think about how to clean the mess up .. Which could have been handled better, maybe, perhaps, but that's another story..

    1447:

    Regarding the Former Yugoslavia, it fractured all on its own; the West spent time trying to keep it together, not break it up; and to operate solely under UN rules, and via negotiation. Friends went there, and the stories they brought back were tragic. All sides were guilty of war crimes, although the majority were Serbian (I watched as a school friend who slept in the bed next to mine, escorted reporters into Anhici where the Croat extremists had murdered an entire Muslim village).

    Then, in 1999, the Serbs started to extend their previous decade of “government p-directed bigotry and discrimination against Kosovar Albanians” into “put down the KLA with extreme prejudice”. Look up Racak. Requests to moderate their behaviour failed. Everyone looks at the Serb Army (fresh from its massacres in Bosnia) and anticipates similar behaviour. The NATO response was driven by Serb Army ethnic cleansing, extrajudicial killing, forced relocation of refugees into Macedonia. These were seen as utterly unacceptable within Western Europe; and as an opportunity to prevent yet another humanitarian disaster, and to ensure that Belgrade understood it was on the wrong path. After all, UNPROFOR and IFOR/SFOR had tried negotiation, reason, and sanctions; Milosevic still thought he could get away with it.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_bombing_of_Yugoslavia

    At the time, I was a infantry reservist, briefing our Rifle Company as to the likely outcomes of the news; I was just married, and on my honeymoon, when the bombing of Belgrade began. We later discovered we were at 24hrs notice of mobilisation, for our part in a 250,000 NATO force to stop the ethnic cleansing.

    I realise that from a Russian perspective, the Serbian behaviour was entirely normal. If your expectations for “counter-insurgency” are of Afghans, Chechens, Elevation 3234, and Grozny. If your acceptable losses for dealing with terrorists involve the casualty rates seen in Beslan or the Moscow Theatre siege; or the tens of millions murdered and starved by occupying Germans; then one or two villages, and a few score civilians, is kid gloves stuff for a Russian.

    This is a cultural difference between us; in the UK, the murder of 13 innocent civilians shot during a riot (Bloody Sunday) caused echoes that have lasted decades. Our expectations of legal behaviour on the part of governments are much tighter, at least so long as it’s white people (see BlackLivesMatter).

    Interestingly, when a region that views itself as “de facto” independent of a Russian Neighbour (Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Donbass, Crimea), then the Russian Army arrives in full force to guarantee that “independence”. Meanwhile, when a region of Russia views itself as independent of Russia, then the Russian Army arrives with full military force to guarantee that no such independence is possible. Heads, it’s Russian, tails, it’s still Russian.

    1448:

    “Is climate change denial (or lack of concern) mainstream opinion in Russia?” From what I’ve heard of Russian winters maybe they think it sounds like a good idea?

    1449:

    I suspect that going further left would cost them votes. If anything, I suspect they are a bit malpositioned socially. Black Lives Matter, LBGT rights, and protecting refugees probably lose more votes than they gain. All things considered, swerving right and letting the Republicans make things really terrible is a decent path to power.

    Sigh. Obamacare almost certainly taught them they swerved too far left. If anything, I suspect that progressive policies would be more achievable on the statewide level.

    1450:

    I owe you an answer; sorry I pinged/probed you hard to see how you would respond. ...they are adamant for their very simple ideals, they are constantly on lookout for "denialists", they like to use ad populum arguments and they would like to prosecute anyone who openly disagrees with their undeniable truths. Are you, by any chance, one of those people? No, I am not. Background; in the US, the climate change denial camp is a highly developed construct created and maintained by propagandists [I assume funded by the fossil fuel interests but haven't done enough personal looking to be sure], and embedded(inserted) into one of the two major political parties (Republican) as part of their canon/belief system. There are a lot of believers maintaining the beliefs, yes. It comes in various flavours, that will shift over time, from outright denial, to denial that humans are causing it, to denial that there is sufficient evidence that humans are causing it, to saying that it will be too expensive to fix, etc. (Personal note: it was one of the changes to the Republican Party that caused my father, from a family that was Republican since the start of the party, to turn away from them in the early 1990s.) It is true that I sometimes get testy at people in the first few flavours; the scientific evidence is by now pretty clear. Anyway, talk about solutions would be welcome. (You might want to look at a few of the concrete proposals for decarbonization. Here's a recent short one addressing some of the social challenges that is now un-paywalled: Accelerating sociotechnical transitions for deep decarbonization )

    Please feel free to argue, just expect some of us to get testy. (I hope we might agree on some of the solutions at least.)

    1451:

    Thank you for those links on The Family etc. I did not know the extent of some of that (knew the shape, but not the magnitude and hence urgency).

    1452:

    Re the rDT tweet thread "Heading to Helsinki, Finland" and We are not joking when we say "that's a [redacted], openly transmitting".

    Is there a (meat) ID at least?

    @sleepingroutine: Scientists being busy/helpful. Vast new complexities found: Host-linked soil viral ecology along a permafrost thaw gradient Here, we aimed to investigate how viruses influence microbial ecology and carbon metabolism in peatland soils along a permafrost thaw gradient in Sweden. ... Although viral ecology is largely unexplored in soils, viruses lyse approximately one-third of ocean microorganisms per day, can metabolically reprogramme their hosts during infection and act as agents of horizontal gene transfer. These viral effects substantially impact ecosystem processes; compared to prokaryotic and eukaryotic microbial abundances, viral population abundances best predicted the global carbon flux from the surface oceans to the deep sea.

    1453:

    "IMHO, "CO2 pollution" is the real red herring"

    Well, yes, I tend to have some sympathy with that point of view, although I think my angle is not quite the same as yours. I don't share the trust in the science that most people on here exhibit. It is too politicised; it was born of politics, it has been carried out in an intensely political atmosphere, and I don't trust its results not to owe more to politics than science. (It wouldn't be the only current scientific endeavour that is buggered by political considerations, and it is almost certainly by far the one with the most intense political connection.) I also don't trust simulations and extrapolations and the like that cannot be tested against reality and that rely heavily on what you think the answer ought to be in their formulation (again, it isn't the only scientific endeavour that has that problem).

    But as far as I'm concerned it doesn't make any difference anyway. I remember when the prevalent climate fear was that we were about to have another ice age, hopefully not too soon, and if CO2 was mentioned at all it was with the thought that we might just dodge the ice age altogether if we made enough of it. Now it's quite the opposite way round. But my opinion throughout has been the same, that we should cease using fossil fuels and instead rely for our primary energy sources on renewables, fusion, and breeder-cycle fission.

    I have held that opinion ever since I was old enough to understand that the reserves would not last "for ever" as far as human timescales are concerned, but would run out, and in a quite comprehensibly short time too. It was quite apparent even as a kid that the adult world responded to this problem in the same woefully unsatisfactory way as they did to the problem of global overpopulation: say that yes, it is a problem, then put it out of mind, carry on leaving the lights on / having more kids, and continue in that manner until the wheels come off. Different but equally strong reasons include the sheer amount of shitty politics, imperialism, and outright war (including the two most destructive wars in history) that the addiction to oil engenders. Moreover, it doesn't require a massive scientific research effort to see whether these reasons exist or not, because they're bleeding obvious.

    If we had conceived any significant motivation to move away from fossil fuels back when the main climate worry was the imminent ice age, we would be pretty well off them by now. Instead we just scratched at the corners and fannied about and thought of Machynlleth as the Nut Hutch and basically didn't bother to think about it. Along comes CO2 and the anthropogenic hypothesis and what you might expect would act as a general kick up the arse instead becomes the source of even more frantic and extended sessions of content-free yapping in place of actually doing anything. The last thing we need is a whole big new thing to argue about endlessly when the sensible course of action is already obvious and the effort would be better spent on getting on with it.

    1454:

    @ 1455 & others Not "Belsan" - in your case much more likely to be "Elsan" ( A Britsh joke )

    MODERATORS: Wasn't there supposed to be a directive asking people not to engage in personally insulting behaviour? Which seems to have been ignored somewhat by a certain person....

    1463 Newsflash: there. is. no. left. in. US. politics REALLY? Quite sure about that?

    1455:

    Yes. It is a pity that it didn't also include hate speech, which set that person off.

    1456:

    I have now unpublished the entire sequence from when the initial attack occurred. Given that this thread is well beyond its Use By date, I'm also closing it.

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